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Russian Pages 162 [164] Year 2022
ISSN 0042-1716
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O k o j i o 3U npHpocia p e a j i b H b i x a o x o a o b HacejieHHH Hbrae o f í e c n e H H B a e T c a 3a cneT on¿iaTbi T p y A a . r i p n HaMe'iaeMOM n p H p o c T e np0H3B0AHTejibH0CTH T p y A a b h o b o h naTHjieTKe 3 a p a 6 o T H a H n j r a i a p a é o n H x h cjiy>KaiuHx AOJiKHa B03pacTH b cpeAHeM Ha 13—16%, a aoxoah koaxo3hhkob o t o6mecTBeHHoro xo3HHCTBa — Ha 2 0 — 2 2 % • C p e A H e M e c f l i H a H o n j i a T a T p y A a k o j i x o 3 h h k o b n o oTHoiueHHio k 3apa-60TH0H n ^ a T e paSo^HX h cJiy>KamHX cocTaBHT o k o j i o 3/4 npoTHB 7 0 % b 1 9 7 5 r. h 6 3 % b 1 9 7 0 r. 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H npoKe BpeMH 3a rioc;ieAHHe roAbi b p e c n y ß j i H K h pafloHOB CTpaHbi — b eBponeflcKOH i a c T H P C O C P , Ha Y K p a H n e , b B e j i o p y c c H H h npHßaJit h h c k h x p e c c y ö j i H K a x — y x y Ä U i H j i a c b , n p e j K A e B c e r o Ha c e j i e , n0Ji0B03pacTHan c i p y K T y p a HacejieHHH, 3HaMHTejibHO cHH3Hjiacb p0>KAaeM0CTb. E c j i h HacejieHHe pecnyßjiHK CpeAHefi A3hh, Ka3axcTaHa H 3aKaBKa3bH b 1961 — 1979 r r . yBejiHMHjiocb Ha 5 2 % , t o b P C O C P , Y C C P , B C C P h npnßa^THHCKHX p e c n y ß j i H K a x — JiHuib na 1 4 % . B 8 0 - e roAbi, ecjiH e m e y q e c T b noc^eÄCTBHH O T e q e c T B e H H o f i b o h h h h A a j i b H e f l m e e CTapeHHe HacejieHHH, T e p p H T o p n a j i b H b i e pa3JiHMHH b AHHaMHKe HacejieHHH M o r y T ycHJiHTbcn, w o CKa^eTCH Ha pacnpeAeJieHHH TpyAOBbix p e c y p c o B no p a f t o H a M CTpaHbi. O t HOCHTejibHO BbicoKHM coxpaHHTCH npHpocT T p y A o c n o c o Ö H o r o HacejieHHH B p e c n y ß j i H K a x C p e A H e ö Ä3HH, A3ep6afiA>KaHCKOH C C P , ^acTH^Ho b ApMHHc k o h h rpy3HHCKOH, b M o j i A a B C K o f i coio3Hbix p e c n y ö J i H K a x , b i o j k h u x p a f t o Hax K a 3 a x c T a H a , b p a a e aBTOHOMHbix p e c n y ö j i H K P C O C P . IlpaKTHiecKH Becb n p H p o c T T p y A o c n o c o 6 H o r o HacejieHHH CTpaHbi b ßjiHJKafimeM AecHTHJieTHH 6 y A e T o ß e c n e ^ H B a T b c n 3a c q e T s t h x p e c n y ö j i H K . 3 a n o c j i e A H H e roAbi ycHJiHJincb HeßjiaronpHHTHbie TeHAeHUHH b c $ e p e CeMeHHO-6paHHbIX OTHOUieHHH. YßeJIHHHJIHCb 4HCJI0 pa3BOAOB H KOJIHqeCTBO OAHHOKHX MyJKHHH H ÄeHLUHH B CTpaHe. P a C T e T tlHCJieHHOCTb H AOJIH ceMeft c o a h h m peßeHKOM h 6e3 AeTeft. f l o a s h h h m n e p e n n c n HacejieHHH 1979 r., H3 66,3 mjih. c e M e f i 5 8 , 6 % c e M e ö c o c t o h t H3 A ß y x h j i h T p e x qejiOBeK h noA3BJIHK)maH HX HaCTb — 3T0 CeMbH 6e3 A e T e f l HJIH C OAHHM peÖeHKOM. B oAHHHaAuaTOH nHTHJieTKe HaMeneHO o c y m e c T B H T b KOMnjieKC Mep, HanpaBjieHHbix Ha y j i y m i e H H e M a T e p n a j i b H o r o 6jiarococTOHHHH h >khjihiuhoÖblTOBblX yCJIOBHH >KH3HH CeMeft C AeTbMH H MOJIOAOJKeHOB, paCUIHpeHHe HM JlbTOT H MaTepHajIbHOH nOMOIUH CO CTOpOHbl oßmeCTBa, COBepHieHCTBOBaHHe o ß m e c T B e H H o r o h c e M e f l H o r o BocnHTaHHH n o A p a c T a i o m e r o noKOJieHHH, pa3BHTHe MeAHUHHCKoro o6c;iy}KHBaHHH h y K p e n j i e H H e 3AopoBbH JnoAefi. 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Pa3BHTHe c o u n a j i b H o r o oßecne^eHHH b nepcneKTHBe 6 y A e T HanpaBJieHO Ha A a j i b H e f i m e e y j i y m u e H H e ycjioBHH >kh3hh h AeHTejibHOCTH neHcnoHepoB, noBbimeHHe h x TpyAOBoft 3 k t h b h o c t h , yBeJinqeHHe p a 3 M e p o B neHCHH, o c o 6eHHO MHHHMajibHbix, c6jiH>KeHHe ycjioBHH h ypoBHH neHCHOHHoro o 6 e c n e i e hhh p a ß o ^ H x H k o j i x o 3 h h k o b . B h o b o h nHTHJieTKe HaMeweHO n o c T e n e H H o e n p H ß j i H ^ e H H e p a 3 M e p o B p a H e e Ha3Ha^eHHbix neHCHÜ k ycTaHaBJiHBaeMbiM b H a c T o a m e e BpeMH a j i h pa60THHK0B a H a j i o r H q H o f t KBaJiH^HKaiiHH. K a x H3BecTHO, neHCHH ycTaHaBJiHBaeTCH b onpeAeJieHHOM cooTHomeHHH c ypoBHeM 3 a p a 6 o T n o H njiaTbi jinuib bo BpeMH e e Ha3HaieHHH ( y x o A a p a ö o T H H K a Ha neHCHio) h b AajibHeHiueM ee pa3Mepbi y s t o h K a T e r o p H H neHCHOHepoB, KaK n p a B H ^ o , He h s m c h h i o t c h . B p e 3 y j i b T a T e cymecTBeHHO pa3jiHHaioTCH pa3Mepbi neHCHH y pa60THHK0B aHajiorHHHoft KBajiHc|)HKauHH, Ha3HaqeHHbie b pa3Hbie roAbi. CpeAHHft p a 3 M e p neHCHH n o CTapocTH, Ha3HaqeHHbix b 1979 r., Bbime n o cpaBHeHHio c 1975 r. Ha 1 2 % , c 1970 r. — Ha 3 6 % h c 1965 r . — b 1,6 p a 3 a . C00TBeTCTBeHH0 He0AHH3K0B0 c o o T H o m e H H e s t h x neHCHH c HbiHeuiHHM y p o B H e M 3 a p a 6 0 T H 0 H njiaTbi, x o t h c ypoBHeM o n ^ a T b i r p y A a b t o a Ha3HaqeHHH neHCHH o h o 6 m j i o npHMepHO paBHbiM. n o B b i m e H H e p a 3 M e p o B p a H e e Ha3HaieHHbix neHCHH c yneTOM p o c T a 3 a p a 6 o T H o ö n^aTbi n03B0JiHT y j i y q u i H T b cooTHomeHHH neHCHH, Ha3HaneHHbix b pa3Hbie t o a u . C o u H a j i b H a a n p o r p a M M a Ha nepcneKTHBy n p e A y c M a T p H B a e T peineHHe B a Ä H e H i u e H c o u H a j i b H o f t npo6;ieMbi — jkhjihimhoh. B ÖJiHJKaHuieM A e c H T H j i e THH HaMe^eHO AOÖHTbCH B OCHOBHOM OÖecneMeHHH K3JKAOH CeMbH OTAejIbHOÖ KBapTHpoß. 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13
3K0H0MHHECKHH POCT H HAPOFLHOE BJlAroCOCTOHHHE
weñ B ropoAax no cpaBH6HHio c 75% B 1975 r. CpeAHHfl oöecne^eHHOCTb OÄHoro «HTejiH JKHJioH njiomaAbio B 1985 r. AocrarHeT 13,7 KB. M. B OAHHHa^uaTOH riHTHJi6TK6 óyAeT 3aBepmeH nepexoA na CTp o H Tejí bCTBO JKHJIMX AOMOB no THnOBblM npOeKTaM C yCOBepilieHCTBOBaHHOH nJI3HHpOBKOH KBapTup h yjiyqiueHHbiMH ycjioBHHMH Hx sKcnjiyaTauHH (B 1979 r. cpeAH AOMOB, CTpoaiHHXCH 3a c^ieT rocyAapcTBenHbix KariHTajibHbix BjioweHHH, OHH coeraBHJIH 4 0 % ) . HapnÄy c rocyAapcTBeHHHM TpeöyeTca ycHjiHTb BHHM3HHe K paciunpeHHK> KOOnepaTHBHOrO H HHAHBHAyaJIbHOrO >KHJlHLU,HOrO CTpOHTejIbCTBa. 3HaHeHue 9 T o r o
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21
OCBOeHHH npOH3BOACTBa HOBOH TÊXHHKH Ha SKOHOMHKy npeflnpHHTHH. B 3TOM nanpaBJieHHH y>Ke B e a y r c n Hay^Hbie h n p a K T H 4 e c K n e p a ö o T b i . H a BTopoM 9Tane ocBOeHHa npon3BoacTBa h o b o h t c x h h k h T p e ö y e T c o BepmeHCTBOBaHHfl H CHCT6Ma 3K0H0MHHeCK0r0 CTHMyjIHpOBaHHH e e npOH3BOÄCTBa. B 3TOT nepHOa OCHOBHOH 4>OpMOH SKOHOMH^eCKOTO CTHMyjlHpOBaHHH HBjiHeTcn ueHa Ha HOByK) TexHHKy. H o ueHa e m e HeaocTaTO^HO 33hhTepecoBbiBaeT npeanpuHTHH b cepnñHOM n p o i i 3 B o a c T B e HOBoro H3aeaHH. ü,eJIO B TOM, H TO BTOpOH 3Tan OCBOeHHH — 3T0 öepHOÄ, KOrfla CeÓeCTOHMOCTb h T p y ^ o e M K O c T b e m e , KaK npaBHJio, Bbime, a np0H3B0auTeabH0CTb T p y a a HHHce 3 a n p o e K T n p o B a H H b i x . FlosTOMy npeanpHHTHe HeceT a o n o a H H Te^bHbie H 3 Ä e p Ä K H , KOTOpbie HeH3Öe>KHbI, HO KOTOpbie HaflO e M y B03MeuiaTb. B o a e e T o r o , b cbh3h c o ö i u h m h TpyanocTHMi-i BbinycKa ocbochhoh npoayKUHH ( y x y a i i i e H H e x o 3 p a c H e r H b i x n o K a s a T e a e ñ ) npeanpHHTHe aoa>Kh o HMerb JibroTbi aJiH BunojiHeHiiH njiaHa BbinycKa h o b m x h 3 a g j i h h . H 3 B e c T H o , « i t o onpeaeJieHHbie sKOHOMHqecKHe a b r o T b i , b i s c t h o c t h ycTaHOBjieHi-ie cymecTBeHHOH HaaöaBKH k onTOBoñ ueHe, o ô e c n e M H B a r o m e n b h c o K y i o peHTaôejibHOCTb, a nosTOMy h noBbimeHHbie OT^HcaeHHH o t npHÔbian B (fjOHÄbl SKOHOMHHeCKOrO CTHMyjIHpOBâHHfl, npeflyCMOTpeHbl Ha TOT nepHOÄ, K o r a s h o b s h npoayKUHH aTTCCTOBaHa h noJiy^aeT Bbicmyio K a T e r o p n i o KaqecTBa. C o r a a c H O ycTaHOBaeHHOMy n o p a a n y a r r e c T a u H H BHOBb ocBaHBaeMoñ npoayKUHH ÄOJi>KHa npoBOÄHTbCH ne no3ÄHee ^eM q e p c 3 r o a , a npoayKUHH 0C060H CJIOJKHOCTH — cnycTH ÄBa r o a a c H a n s a s e e c e p u H H o r o npoH3BoacTBa. ConnacHO M e T o a n i e c K H i v i yK333HHHM 0 nopnaKe nJiannpoBSHKH h y n e T a p o c T a npoH3BoacTBa n p o a y K U H H Bbicmeii KaTeropHH Ka^ecTBa (ocHOBHbie n o a o j K e H H H ) npoayKUHH o t h o c h t c h k Bbicineñ KSTeropHH KanecTBa c moMeHTa p e r n c T p a u H H b r o c c r a H a a p T e pemeHHH TocyaapcTBeHHOH a r r e c T a u H OHHOH k o m h c c h h o Bbiaane cBHaeTejibCTBa o npHCBoeHHH npoayKUHH r o c y a a p c T B e H H o r o 3 H a K a Ka^ecTBa 4 . C a a H H o r o MOMeHTa (JjaKTHnecKH OHa h Ha^HHaeT n o a y q a T b H a a ß a B K y k ueHe. 3 T a H a a ö a B K a He BKatowaeTCH b n a a H npoH3BoacTBa HOBbix H3aeaHH, xoTfl y^HTbiBaeTca b oTHeTe ( q T o y c n a H B a e T 3aHHTepec0B3HH0CTb n p e a n p H H T H f l ) . BnaHMO, a a n ycnaeHHH CTHMyaHpyiomeH p o a u ueH b o c b o c h h h npoH3BOaCTBa HOBOH BbICOKOStJxjDeKTHBHOH TeXHHKH, AJlñ nOBblUieHHH ypOBHH HaCbimeHHH HapoaHOrO X03HHCTB3 TaKOH TeXHHKOH UeJieCOOÔpa3HO Bce a b r o Tbi b u e H a x , KOTOpbie b HacTOHmee BpeMH p a c n p o c T p a H ^ i o T C H ToabKO Ha n p o a y K U H i o Bbicuieii KaTeropHH KanecTBa, nepeHecTH Ha b c i o n p o a y K U H i o , BKaioMeHHyro b n a a H h o b o h t c x h h k h h H a q a T y i o ocBoeHHeM. B ueHTpe cHCTeMbi CTHMyJIHpOBaHHH aOa>KHa ÖblTb BCH C03aaBaeMaH H0B33 TeXHHKa H 0C0&0 — TexHHKa b n e p n o a e e OCBOeHHH, a He TOJibKO n o c a e e r o o k o h ^ s h h h . TaKOH n o p H a o K npHBeaeT k pacuiHpeHHio nepenHH H3aejiHH, a a n k o t o p u x aoa>KHa ycTaHaBaHBaTbcn H a a ô a B K a k u,eHe. H o s t o He n o T p e ó y e T ô o a b i u o H p a ö o T b i , T a n KaK KOCHeTCH He3HatjHTeabHoro o ß t e M a npoayKUHH ( b o c h o b h o m HecKoabKHx uiTyK onbiTHbix o6pa3H,oB « a n nepBbix npoMbiuiaeHHbix n a p T H H ) h pacnpocTpaHHTCfl Ha H e ß o a b m o H c p o K ( r o a - Ä B a ) . B M e c T e c TeM ö y a y T co3aaHbi a b r o T H b i e ycaoBHH aJiH y c K o p e H H o r o ocBoeHHH Bceñ a e ñ c T B H T e a b H o stJxJjeKTHBHoñ TexHHKH. K p o M e T o r o , c BBeaeHHeM npea^iar a e M o r o n o p a a K a ß y a y T aHKBHanpoBaHbi c y m e c T B y r o m n e BbiHyjKaeHHbie (J)OpMbI nOKpblTHH BbICOKHX H3aep>K'eK OCBOeHHH npOH3BOaCTBa HOBOH TeXHHKH ( H a n p H M e p , q e p e 3 BKaioneHne hx b ceßecTOHMOCTb ocBaHBaeMon n p o ayKUHH) . JXjih coBepmeHCTBOBaHHH CHCTeMbi ueH Ha HOByio TexHHKy b n e p n o a ocBoeHHa (Ha o ö o h x s T a n a x ) noTpeöyeTCH p a 3 p a 6 o T K a CHCTeMbi y n e T a 3aTp a T ocBoeHHa npoH3BoacTBa n o K a j K a o H M o a e a H . H3aep>KKH OCBOeHHH n p o H3BoacTBa nepBbix 0 6 p a 3 U 0 B h onbiTHbix c e p n ñ noaHOCTbio npaKTHMecKH hhr a e He H a x o a n T 0Tpa>KeHHH, He r o B o p n y « e 06 y ^ e T e npeBbiuieHHH K A O H MOflejiH. B o MHoroM pemeHHK) S T O H npoô^eMbi cnocoßcTByeT nepexoa n a cncT6My 3aKa30B-HapflAOB. H T O K a c a e T c a a e H C T B y i o m e i i (JjopMbi CT3THCTHH6CKOH OTHCTHOCTH O 3aTp a T a x Ha M e p o n p n a T H a n o HOBOH T e x H H K e , TO OHa He A a e T n o j i H o ñ H HCHOH K a p T H H b i o 3 a T p a T a x . B o - n e p B b i x , B Heft H e noflpa3,n,eJieHbi 3 a T p a T b i H a ocB o e H H e HOBOH TCXHHKH H e e B u e a p e H H e . U , e j i e c 0 0 6 p a 3 H 0 , Ha H a m B3rjiHA, B B e C T H T 3 K O H pa3flej!bHbIH y n e T . B 0 - B T 0 p b I X , B 3 T 0 H (})OpMe H e T H e T K O T O BblA e j i e H H H 3 a T p a T H a o c B o e H H e n p 0 H 3 B 0 A C T B a H O B O H TCXHHKH H 3 c p e A C T B E O P H T H A p y r H x H C T O H H H K O B , HTO 3 3 T p y A H $ i e T 3HajiH3 C T p y K T y p b i B 0 3 M e meHHH H 3 A e p > K e K O C B O e H H H . 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1981—
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2
CM. « C o u H a j i H C T H H e c K H H T p y a » »Ns 3, 1980 r . , CTp. 73.
3. « B o n p o c b i 3K0H0MHKH» MJ 5.
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A. KOTJIHP, M. TAJIAJIAH
34
p a c T , y M e e b i i i H ^ a c b . n p H p o c T HacejieHHH B Tpyaocnoco6HC>,M B03pacTe KpaTHTCíi B 8 0 - e ROAH n o cpsBHeHHio c 70-MH roA3MH c 18 AO 3 , 8 %
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4
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35
TeKywecTb KaApoB HanocHT 3KOHOMnqecKHii y m e p 6 npeJKAe Beerò H3-3a HeywaCTHH
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36
A. KOTJIHP, M. TAJIAJIAH
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TEPECBL:
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37
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3a
nocjieBoemibiñ
Bee
b
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( b 1 9 7 9 r. b J i n X
cJjejiH, 4 2 %
atoa).
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B
b
jih^hhx
pacTeHHeBOflCTBe
njioAOBOACTBe,
np0H3B0ACTBe OBomeñ njioAOB
nepHOA
K3pTO(f)ejieBOACTBe,
np0H3B0AHJi0Cb okojio 6 0 %
cymecTBeHHa
jkhbothoboactbc
npHXOAHJIOCb OKOJIO 9 6 %
KpOJIb^aTHHbl, n p H M e p H O 4 0 %
paHHHbl, K03JIHTHHH H M H C 3 nTHUbl, 3 3 %
npn-
HaHÓOJiee
KOHHHbl, 2 7 %
b
KapTO-
aojih
B CBHHOBOflCTBe, nTHUeBOACTBe, K 0 3 0 B 0 A C T B e , KpOJIHKOBOACTBe. B Jinx
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B 3CTOHHH OKOJIO 9 4 %
np0H3B0ACTBa
Me^ay Tax,
BCeñ UiepCTH npOH3BOAHTCH B J i n x , K0JIX033MH H COB-
b pecny6jiHKe
np0H3B0AHM0H
CTpyKType
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a b Bejiopyccnn
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b
pa3JiHHHH
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Ha J i n x
npHXOAHTCH
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4%
n i e p C T H , o c T S J i b H o e — Ha o 6 m e c T B e H H b i H
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npHXOAHTCfl 7 0 — 7 5 % h
5ejiopyccMn
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npoAyKUHH
(85—90%)
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59%.
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okojio
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68
T. IUMEJIEB
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Bcex
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J i n x
HacejieHHH
b n p o H 3 B C A C T B e n j i o A O B H a r o A H OKOJIO
MeHbuje,
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npHyca^eSHbix
1978
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paôoTHHKOB
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T. 1HMEJIEB
70
CHafi^eHHH ocTaiOTcn MH
K0AX03HHK0B
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np
qepe3
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Hace/ieHH5i
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14%.
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34%,
AOKS, 4 0 %
shu
npoayKUHH
BecbMa
h SoAee 90%
pbiHKe.
oó-beMe
B
1979
K a p T O ( J ) e j i K ) — OKOAO
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npOAOBOAbCT-
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np0H3B0ACTBa
r. 3Ta 17,
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mepcTH, npoAaHHbix
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B
h noTpeÓHTeAbCKyio
B oómeM
KapTO(})ejiH, 4 3 %
peajiH30BaHo B nopaAKe
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nOCTaBAaeMOH
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M a c y — 37,
3T0M 4 7 %
H
npOAyKUHH,
KOAXO3HHH
AOAa
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h
MOJiOKy —
M a c s , OKOAO 8 0 %
xo3HHCTBaMH 3aKynoK,
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B XO-
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HacejieHHa,
a H e Ha
3Ha^HTejibHbiñ
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Bec B BajioBQH npoAyKUHH, np0H3BeaeHH0H B J i n X . FLOJIH rocyAapCTBeHHbix 3aKynon B BajiOBOH npoayKUHH, np0H3Befl.eHH0M J1ÍIX (B % )
1940
KapTO(})ejib OBOLUH Maco MOJIOKO Hñua
1Á3
6,9 14,7 8,9 21,7
BHAHO, I T O
3aKynKH
B
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66,5,
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MOAOKS)
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npoAyKUHH
69,2%,
B
JieBHBH3B3-
H cymecTBeHHbiM
B03pa-
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KOAAeKTHB-
a T3K>KE C O K P A M E H H E M
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H a OCHOBe paCCMOTpeHHblX 3KCn0pTH0-HMn0pTHbIX (JjyHKUHH H cneUHajib'HOH n p o u e a y p b i corjiacoBaiiHH nporH03Kbix n o K a 3 a i e j i e ñ c n o M o m b i o MeTOfla a b o h h o h nponopuHOHajibHocTH B « a m e n cTpane npBMeHHSTCH cHCTBMa cpe^HecpoMHoro nporno3iipoBaHHH BHeuiHeä ToproBJi«. 3 T a cHCTeMa, p a 3 p a ôoTaHHasi b U 3 M H A H C C C P h H H 3 H npH TocnjiaHe C C C P , ncno;ib3yeTca n p n n p o p a ß o T K e nepcneKTHB pa3BHTH?i BHeuiHefi ToproBJin b noACHCTeMe « n p o r H 0 3 » CHCTeMbi « A C O n - B H e i i i T o p r » 10. B CHCT6M6 pa3pa6aTbiBaeTCH nporno.3 H np0H3B0AHTca yBH3Ka (corjiacoBauHe) qacTHbix noiKaaaTejieñ, xapaKTepH3yioiuHX pa3BHT«e B'HeuiHeñ ToproBJiH CTpaHbi, co c b o a h h m h noKa3aTSJiHMH S K c n o p T a h HMnopTa. Pe3yjibTaTbi np0PH03a o ó t e M a h CTpyKTypbi SKcnopTa h HMnopTa rpynnnpyiOTCH b cneuHa^bHbie SKcnopTHbie h HMnopTHbie MaTpHUbl, CTpyKTypa KOTopbix CTaHOBHTCH 5ÎCH0H H3 OnHCaHHH MaTpHUbl SKCnOpTa (Eij). B 3T0H MaTpHUe no CTpoKaM yKa3biBaioTCH BbiAejiaeMbie b aHajiH3e np0rH03npyeMbie r p y n n b i TOBapoB, a no CTOJiöuaM CTpaHbi-iiMnopTepbi (hjih r p y n n b i CTpan). 3jieMeHT Eij 3T0H MaTpnubi, HaxoAaiuHHCíí Ha nepeceqenHH j-ñ CTpOKH h í'-ro CTOJiôua, noKa3biBaeT CTOHMOCTb SKcnopTa TOBapa i-ñ r p y n n b i b /-k> CTpaHy. TaKHM 0 6 p 3 3 0 M , B K3>KA0ÍÍ H3 CTpOK MaTpHUbl (Eij) COAep>KHTC5I pacnpeAeJieHHe SKcnopTa C C C P b paccMaTpnBaeMbie CTpaHbi (rpynnbi CTpan) no BceM TOBapHbiM r p y n n a M , a b kbjkaom h3 c t o j i ô u o b — pscnpeAejieHHe 3KcnopTa TOBapoB i-x r p y n n no bcêm BbiAejiaeMbiM b pac^eTax CTpaHaM ( r p y n n a M CTpaH). O K a ñ M j i a i o m H e BeKTopw (cTpoKa H c m n ô e u ) x a p a K T e p n 3yiOT COOTBeTCTBeHHO COBOKynHblH SKCnOpT C C C P B Ka>KAyiO CTpaHy (/) H coBOKynHbiñ 3KcnopT K 3 Ä A 0 H TosapHOH rpynnbi (i) bo Bee c r p a n H . AHajioTHMHO COAep>KaHHe M a Tp H Ubi HMnopTa ( M i j ) . P a 3 p a 6 o T K a n p o r a o 3 a sKcnopTHbix h HMnopTHbix MaTpnu, ocymecTBJiaercH b HecKOJibKO STanoB. B pac^eTax h aHa;iH3e pe3yjibTaT0B Ha k3>kaom h3 STanOB HapHAy C 3K0H0MHK0-MaT6MaTHMeCKHMH MeTOAaMH HCnOJIb3yK>TCH 3KcnepTHbie ou©hkh cneunajiHCTOB. H a nepBOM sTane nporH03HpyiOTCH OKañMJlHHDIUHe MaTpHUbl SKCnOpTa H HMnopTa B 6 K T O p a (CTOJlÓeu H CTp'OlKa), qTO n03B0jiHeT nojiyHHTb noKa3aTe./ib 06-beMa, a t s k â ê reorpaKOTpscjieB o r o S a j i a H c a 12 . H a 33¡cni0qHTejibH0'M, qeTBepTOM S T a n e ocymecTBJiHeTCH ó a j i a H C H p o B K a C 0 B 0 K y n H 0 r 0 S K c n o p i a H H M n o p T a , HCXOAH « 3 HS'MeqseMbix 3 a a a i B o ó J i a c T H Ke AJifl npoBQASHHH HMHTauHOHHbix p a c n e T O B . n p o r H 0 3 H b i x pacHeTOB n o K O M N J I E K C H H M SKOHOMeTpmiecKHM MOAeBbinojiHeH B B e H r p H H H ^ e x o c j i O B a K H H . B N O C J I E A H E Ñ , H a n p H M e p , S H J I H p a 3 p a 6 o T a H b i noAOÓHbie MOAejiH n p 0 r H 0 3 H p 0 B 3 H H 3 AJIH K p a T K o e p o q H o r o H 13 c p e A H e c p o H H o r o n e p H O A a ( V V S — 3 H VVS—5) . B MOAeJiH AJIH c p e A H e cpo^Horo n e p n o A a , O Ó T E A H H H I O M E H 1 0 6 J I O K O B , x a p a K T e p H 3 y i o i U H X p 3 3 J i n q Hbie C(J)epbI 3K0H0MHKH, AHH3MHK3 S K C n o p T a CTaBHJiaCb B 33BHCHMOCTb OT PHA
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r r . B H a c T o a m e e BpeMH KOMnjieKCHbie SKOHOMeTpHMecKHe MOASJIH HMeIOTCH B ÓOJIblIIHHCTBe CTpaH C 3 B . H a OCHOBe OAHOH H3 T3KHX MOAeAeñ B paMKax P A S O ^ E Ñ r p y n n b i n o np0rH03Hp0BaHHK> FIOCTOJJHHOH KOMHCCHH C 3 B n o BHeuiHeH T o p r o B J i e 6HJI p a 3 p 3 6 o T a H n p 0 r H 0 3 P33BHTHH BHeuiHeñ T o p r o B 1980
JIH CTPSH C 3 B
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12 MaTeiuaTHHecKHe nporpaMMbi pacMeTOB no MeTofly flBoñHoñ nponopuHOHajibHoc™ ;UIH corJiacoBaHHí) nporH03Hbix noKa3aTe^EFT 6bIJIH pa3pa6oTaHbi A. ElpHBajioBbiM ( H H 3 H npn ROCNJTAHE CCCP) H E. neTpoBoft ( U 3 M H AH C C C P ) . 13 J. S u j a n, J. K o 1 e k, M. O 1 e x a, P r o g n o z y vyvoja ekonomiki CSSR («Politicka ekonomie» Ns 8, 1978).
84
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CO3HAHHEM.
16 E . H . K A N Y C T H H , COUHAJIHCTHQECKUFT H 3 J , A T E . I B C T B O « M B I C J I B » , 1 9 7 6 R., C T P . 1 8 .
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1980
SKOHOMHQECKHH
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17 CM. NO^PO6NEE: O. E. J L A 6 E U K H H, T . JL. K A M E H K O. H E C 0 C T 0 H T E J I B H 0 C T B 6 Y P > K Y A 3 H O H KOHU.ENU.HH « K O H B E P R E H U H H O 6 P A 3 0 B K H 3 H H » N P « COIJHAJIH3ME H KANNTAJIN3ME ( « H 3 B E C T H H A K A ^ E M H H HAYK C C C P . C E P N A 3 K 0 H 0 M H Q E C K A H » J\FS 2 , 1 9 7 8 R., CTP. 109—119). 18
P.
H.
K A H N,
WORLD
ECONOMIC.
DEVELOPMENT.
1979
AND
BEYOND.
LONDON,
1979,
123.
19 J. B O T K I N, M . E 1 E M A N D J R A, REPORT TO T H E C L U B OF R O M E . OXFORD, . 1 9 7 9 .
M.
M A 1 I T Z A,
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«The A m e r i c a n J o u r n a l of E c o n o m i c s a n d S o c i o l o g y » , J u l y 1978, p. 245.
104
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pa3p3Ô0TKH; KPT —
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npeflnpHflTHH. B
1980
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