Integration, Währung und Wachstum - Dimensionen internationaler Wirtschaftsbeziehungen: Festschrift für Dieter Bender zum 60. Geburtstag [1 ed.] 9783428506583, 9783428106585

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FRANZ PETER LANG / RENATE OHR (Hrsg.)

Integration, Währung und Wachstum Dimensionen internationaler Wirtschaftsbeziehungen

Schriften zu internationalen Wirtschaftsfragen Band 33

Integration, Wahrung und Wachstum - Dimensionen internationaler Wirtschaftsbeziehungen Festschrift für Dieter Bender zum 60. Geburtstag

Herausgegeben von Franz Peter Lang Renate Ohr

Duncker & Humblot · Berlin

Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Einheitsaufnahme Integration, Währung und Wachstum - Dimensionen internationaler Wirtschaftsbeziehungen : Festschrift für Dieter Bender zum 60. Geburtstag / Hrsg.: Franz Peter Lang / Renate Ohr. - Berlin : Duncker und Humblot, 2002 (Schriften zu internationalen Wirtschaftsfragen ; Bd. 33) ISBN 3-428- 10658-X

Alle Rechte, auch die des auszugsweisen Nachdrucks, der fotomechanischen Wiedergabe und der Übersetzung, für sämtliche Beiträge vorbehalten © 2002 Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin Fotoprint: Werner Hildebrand, Berlin Printed in Germany ISSN 0720-6984 ISBN 3-428-10658-X Gedruckt auf alterungsbeständigem (säurefreiem) Papier entsprechend ISO 9706 θ

Vorwort Im vorliegenden Buch präsentieren ausgewiesene Autorinnen und Autoren verschiedenste Beiträge zu Forschungsgegenständen aus dem weiten Feld der internationalen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen. Es ist eine anspruchsvolle Sammlung entstanden, die Einblicke in aktuelle Fragestellungen und den State of the Art dieses Forschungsbereichs gewährt. Dies ist jedoch nicht der alleinige Zweck des Buches. Die Herausgeber haben die Autoren um ihre Beiträge gebeten, weil sie Dieter Bender als Wissenschaftler, Kollegen und Freund ehren wollen. Am 7. Oktober 2002 wird er 60 Jahre alt und steht engagiert, produktiv und lebensfroh an dem Platz, den er sich selbst als Wissenschaftler und Hochschullehrer eingerichtet und mit viel Elan gestaltet hat. An dieser Stelle wollen wir aber nicht sein akademisches Leben im Einzelnen skizzieren; wir wollen vielmehr seine Leistungen würdigen, die er fur Studenten, Schüler, Kollegen und die Wissenschaft erbracht hat. Dieter Bender ist ein origineller Forscher, der einen scharfen Blick fur ungelöste Probleme von wirtschaftstheoretischer und wirtschaftspolitischer Bedeutung besitzt. Seine analytische Fähigkeit lässt ihn rasch auf die Schwachpunkte vorgetragener Überlegungen kommen, und seine bereitwillige, konstruktive Kritik hilft beim Revidieren und Weiterentwickeln von Ideen. Dies macht ihn zum kongenialen Gesprächspartner im wissenschaftlichen, wie im politischen Diskurs. Disziplin und Genauigkeit sowie die hieraus resultierende Selbstkritik und Unerbittlichkeit gegenüber Denkfehlern prägen Dieter Benders eigene Forschungstätigkeit. Die hohe Informationsdichte seiner Studien ist ein besonderes Spezifikum seiner Arbeitsweise. Stets darauf bedacht, immer wieder neue Themenstellungen aufzugreifen und zu bearbeiten, hat er zudem nicht nur eine hohe Produktivität, sondern auch Originalität mit seinen zahlreichen Publikationen unter Beweis gestellt. Trotzdem legt er immer wieder eine geradezu selbstverleugnende Bescheidenheit an den Tag. Dieter Bender ist jedoch nicht nur ein herausragender Wissenschaftler, sondern auch ein ebenso hervorragender und begeisternder Lehrer. Es sind nicht nur seine didaktischen Fähigkeiten, welche seine Lehre und seine Fachvorträge mit Spannung füllen und interessant machen, sondern es ist vor allem auch die Tatsache, dass er sich stets dafür engagiert, neue Erkenntnisse und praxisrele-

6

Vorwort

vante Beispiele in seine Vorlesungen und seine Lehrbuchbeiträge zu integrieren. Damit lebt er in seiner Eigenschaft als Universitätsprofessor das Ideal der Verbindung von Forschung und Lehre vor. Doch auch über die universitäre Forschung und Lehre hinaus ist Dieter Bender gefragt und engagiert - u.a. als Mitglied des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats beim Bundesministerium ftir Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung, bei der Deutschen Stiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (DSE) und als Vertrauensdozent der Stiftung der deutschen Wirtschaft. Seine internationale Wertschätzung dokumentiert sich in vielfältigen Forschungsaufenthalten im Ausland, die ihn bisher z.B. nach Washington (IWF), Singapur, Jakarta, Shanghai, Delhi, Bombay, Taschkent und Rostow am Don führten. Dieter Bender ist - über seine wissenschaftlichen Meriten hinaus - aber vor allem ein freundlicher und liebenswürdiger Mensch. Er kann unermüdlich zuhören, wirkt stets gleichbleibend gelassen und ist auch noch zur fortgeschrittenen Stunde in jeder Hinsicht motiviert und begeisterungsfähig. Wir haben als seine Schüler stets von diesen Eigenschaften und seiner Loyalität profitiert. Wir wären nicht dort, wo wir gegenwärtig sind, wenn Dieter Bender nicht unser Chef und Förderer gewesen wäre. Er ist ein bemerkenswerter Wissenschaftler, ein außerordentlich begabter Hochschullehrer und ein sehr guter Freund. Diese Kombination von Eigenschaften bewirkt es, dass wir stolz sind, ihm die vorliegende Festschrift widmen zu dürfen, die thematisch an seinen Forschungsschwerpunkten - Theorie und Politik internationaler Handelsbeziehungen, monetäre Außenwirtschaft sowie Entwicklungsländer - ausgerichtet ist. Wir denken, dass alle hier vertretenen Autoren jeweils ein ganz besonderes, aber ähnliches Verhältnis zu Dieter Bender haben und daraus ihre eigene Motivation zu ihrem Beitrag gezogen haben. Ihnen allen gilt unser Dank, und Dieter Bender gilt unser Wunsch, dass er noch viele schaffensfrohe Jahre haben und uns allen noch lange als Kollege, Lehrer und vor allem als Freund erhalten bleiben möge.

Franz Peter Lang und Renate Ohr

Inhaltsverzeichnis 1. Europäische Integration Rainer Beckmann, Carsten Eppendorfer,

Wim Kösters and Markus Neimke

A Single European Market for Financial Services: Integration Trends and Growth Effects

11

Hartmut Berg

Integrationsinduzierte Wettbewerbsprozesse: Das Beispiel des europäischen PKW-Marktes

47

H. Jörg Thieme

Geldpolitik bei integrierten Finanzmärkten: Erste Erfahrungen der Europäischen Zentralbank 73 Ingo Konrad und Renate Ohr

Zwischen Transformation und Integration - Herausforderungen für die Währungspolitik der mittel- und osteuropäischen EU-Beitrittskandidaten

95

Klaus Dieter John

Geldpolitische Aspekte der EU-Erweiterung

113

Wolf Schäfer

EU-Erweiterung: Alternative Arrangements zur Steuerung der Überschussmigration

141

2. Weltwirtschaftliche Integration Helga Luckenbach

Weltwirtschaftspolitik - Problembereiche, Lösungsansätze, Institutionen

163

Franz Peter Lang und Annette Mayer

Der Delaware-Effekt: Integration und Systemwettbewerb

181

Norbert Lamar

Die EU-Erweiterung als Katalysator einer liberalisierten Welthandelsordnung? Eine politökonomische Analyse 201

8

Inhaltsverzeichnis

3. Währung und Finanzmärkte Horst Siebert

An Iron Law of Currency Crises: The Divergence of the Nominal and the Real Exchange Rate and Increasing Current Account Deficits 219 Werner Gaab and Bernd Kempa

Towards Resolving the Exchange Rate Volatility Puzzle

229

Michael Frenkel

Kapitalverkehrskontrollen: Ein Überblick zur Theorie und zum empirischen Befund

243

Jürgen Schröder und Matthias Wald

Kreditderivate und Effizienz der Finanzmärkte

265

4. Offenheit und Wachstum Harald Sander

Openness and Growth: On the Limitations of the Cross-Country Evidence

291

Hans-Rimbert Hemmer und Ralf Krüger

Wachstumswirkungen ausländischer Direktinvestitionen in Entwicklungsländern

311

Gerhard Rübel

Steuersenkung und Volkseinkommen in offenenVolkswirtschaften: Ein effizienzlohntheoretischer Ansatz

335

Karlhans Sauernheimer

Das Krugman-Modell und die Theorie des internationalen Handels

357

Günter Gabisch

A Dynamic Generalization of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Theorem

377

Veröffentlichungen von Dieter Bender

391

Autorenverzeichnis

399

1. Europäische Integration

A Single European Market for Financial Services: Integration Trends and Growth Effects

By Rainer Beckmann, Carsten Eppendorfer, Wim Kösters and Markus Neimke, Bochum1

I. Introduction Usually, it is argued that facilitating the entry of foreign financial firms into the local market intensifies competition, improves efficiency, and increases the quality of the financial infrastructure. As such, foreign firms can be seen as an important catalyst for the sort of financial development that promotes growth. This paper analyses recent trends of cross-border activities of European banking and insurance companies as well as some long-run macroeconomic effects of European integration. We consider banking and insurance as most important segments of the whole market for financial services. In particular, we focus on the further reduction and abolition of cross-border barriers impeding the entry into the markets of banking and insurance products. Our main aim - the analysis of the change in GDP growth following deeper financial integration - is analogous to the Cecchini Report in which the growth effects of the 1992 Single Market Programme were estimated. In particular, a bonus of 4.5 percent in terms of GDP growth has been predicted, resulting from a free flow of consumer products, capital and labour. One third, or 1.5 percentage points of the growth bonus were attributed to the integration of financial markets in particular. Since 1992 the average growth rate of real GDP in Europe has not exceeded 2 % per year. Based on this observation we cannot exactly asses whether the expectation of the Cecchini Report was too optimistic, however, we can strengthen the arguments for further financial integration with new empiri1

An earlier version was prepared for the study "The Benefits of a Working European Retail Market for Financial Services" by the EFR (European Financial Services Roundtable, Brussels). Former research benefited from comments of Dieter Bender, Claudia Buch, Dieter Farny, Karl-Olof Hammarkvist, Friedrich Heinemann and seminar participants at the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim and the Institute of World Economics (IfW), Kiel.

R. Beckmann, C. Eppendorfer, W. Kösters and M. Neimke

12

cai results. We argue that the creation of a functioning single market for financial services is a substantial prerequisite for generating higher growth rates, because the degree to which financial markets are integrated determines financial development which in turn causes economic growth. First, we analyse the interdependence of financial development and economic growth from a theoretical view. The approach is in line with the increasing interest for the finance-growth nexus in recent publications (e.g. World Bank, 2001). It is argued that the level of financial development of an economy seems to be characterised mainly by it's financial market's size, structure and efficiency and through these transmission channels influences economic growth. We implement this characterisation of the financial sector in a simple endogenous growth model. This model can be used to illustrate the influence of financial development as well as the growth effects of financial integration. We show that enhanced foreign financial market penetration should increase the overall growth rate unambiguously. Then major steps towards an integrated financial market in Europe are summarised and confronted with the empirical evidence. In spite of considerable integration achievements the descriptive analysis still reveals the existence of substantial obstacles to cross-border business. In the econometric evaluation, we try to assess the macroeconomic impact of an increased activity of foreign companies in domestic financial markets in Europe. The analysis of the EU member states follows a two-step approach. The empirical analysis includes a wide set of indicators, each of them capturing different aspects of financial development and financial market integration. On the basis of the estimations a weak growth impact of foreign market penetration can be identified. Hence, deeper financial integration generates a growth bonus.2 But the long-run growth effect is conditional on differences in institutionnal characteristics captured by country-specific effects.

II. Theoretical Considerations This section outlines selective links between financial market development and the real economic sector. In particular, it shows which transmission channels of the financial sector can be identified. The different approaches to finding causal combinations between the financial market development of an economy and its per-capita growth rate were motivated by two factors: the upcoming of the "new growth theory" and the detection of empirical phenomena such

2

In a recent paper Neimke et al. (2002) show that the identified growth bonus can be transformed into a country-specific employment bonus.

A Single European Market for Financial Services

13

as the identification of specific convergence processes in the world economy.3 The finance-growth nexus in a closed economy is discussed extensively in the literature. In contrast, theoretical approaches to determine the growth implications of financial market integration are rare. Our aim is not to remove this shortcoming but to give intuitive indications on the basis of a simple growth model. We argue that the removal of obstacles to cross-border financial activities is a substantial prerequisite for generating higher growth rates because the degree to which financial markets are integrated is a determinant of financial development which in turn influences economic growth.

1. Transmission Channels of the Financial Sector In growth theory the evolution of the financial services sector as a whole represents only one determinant of country-specific differences in growth processes. Nevertheless, the financial sector appears to have special importance in two ways. First, it has the function to canalise savings into investment and innovation activities.4 Second, it is possible to interpret the degree to which the financial sector is developed as a broad measure of macroeconomic efficiency: financial development influences total factor productivity and the long-run growth rate. 5 These characterisations of the financial sector as a determinant of economic growth already reflect the competing approaches of the neoclassical and the endogenous growth theory. In neoclassical growth theory only increases in the level of macroeconomic efficiency are responsible for a permanent growth of per capita income, which is attained by presuming an exogenous productivity growth rate. An increase, for example, of the saving rate induces a growth effect that is only transitory. Endogenous growth models, by contrast, permit also the possibility of a permanent increase in the growth rate of per capita income through an increase of the macroeconomic savings rate or through research and development activities. However, the endogenous growth approaches are not able to explain the convergence dynamics, that can be discovered empirically and constitute a special characterisation of neoclassical models.

3 Influential theoretical contributions in the context of the new growth theory are Römer (1986, 1990), Lucas (1988) and Grossman/Helpman (1991). The empirical approaches of Barro/Sala-i-Martin (1992) and Mankiw/Romer/Weil (1992) should also be mentioned here. For an overview see Barro (1998). 4 This view is based on the work of McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973). One of the first analyses of thefinance-growth nexus is Goldsmith (1969). For an extensive summary of this discussion see Levine (1997). 5 See King/Levine (1993 a, b), Levine (1998), Rajan/Zingales (1998).

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R. Beckmann, C. Eppendorfer, W. Kösters and M. Neimke

The degree of financial development can be measured differently, namely by the size , the structure and the efficiency of the financial sector.6 Indicators that measure the size of the financial sector basically include information about the depth of financial intermediation. With the help of structural indicators we can obtain information about the allocation of resources and the relevance of an economy's different financial institutions, e.g. the impact of private and stateowned banks. Using efficiency indicators the level of transaction cost, the degree of information asymmetries and in particular the competition environment can be recorded. And, at last each of the different measures of the degree to which the financial sector is developed can be influenced by financial market integration. In particular, the financial sector affects the main two driving forces of growth, factor accumulation and efficiency of allocation. Literature has identified different channels making up the link between the financial sector and economic growth: 7 •

Supply of credits for investment A developed, competitive financial sector ensures a relatively small spread between lending and deposit interest rates, which in turn enlarges that part of macroeconomic savings that can be transformed into credits for investment projects of the non-banking sector. According to the analysis of McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) a functioning financial sector ensures high private saving rates due to an attractive interest rate. More private savings facilitate investment activities of private firms, and enable an economy to grow at a higher speed. This saving rate effect is intensified when the growth dynamics are also driven by human capital accumulation. Hence, the financial sector can raise the formation of human capital through the provision of credit to private households which use such financial means for private education investments.

• Provision of information In economic theory the task of the financial sector should be, among others, to channel savings into the most profitable investment projects. A developed financial sector facilitates this i f banks and insurance companies monitor investment projects and provide information about potentially innovative enterprises to their customers. • Insurance of risks Since more profitable investment projects are usually associated with higher risks, improving the possibilities to insure oneself against these risks can 6

See King/Levine (1992) for this classification. See Atje/Jovanovic (1993), Bencivenga/Smith (1991), Berthélemy/Varoudakis (1996a, b), De Gregorio (1996), Greenwood/Jovanovic (1990), Holmström/Tiroleil 997), Jappelli/Pagano (1994), King/Levine (1993 b), Obstfeld (1994), Pagano (1993), and Saint-Paul (1992). 7

A Single European Market for Financial Services

15

significantly increase investments financed by given savings. This insurance function is the more important the more economic growth is driven by technological innovations that are linked to high sunk costs. Through spillovereffects R&D drives the technological knowledge stock of an economy which in turn increases total factor productivity. To summarise, following economic theory a working financial sector is in part responsible for the accumulation of input factors as well as for the efficiency with which the input factors can be used. The degree of the financial sector's development can be measured in terms of its size, structure and efficiency. Each of these different financial measures can be influenced by financial market integration. Therefore, an increase in the degree of financial market integration that results in a rise of the financial sector's development level will work in favour of per-capita income growth.

2. Endogenous Growth and Financial Intermediation In the model briefly outlined below the transmission channels of a working financial services sector can be merged to a theoretically consistent approach. Furthermore, the model is capable of analysing the impact of increasing financial market integration. The chosen approach is based on a production technology that allows to represent characteristics of both endogenous and neoclassical growth models. First, it comprises the stylised fact of convergence within specific groups of countries (conditional convergence), derivable from neoclassical models. Second, it implements main characteristics of endogenous growth models with a long-term positive growth rate independent of exogenous technological processes. Under these assumptions it can be shown that the convergence behaviour as well as the equilibrium growth rate is directly influenced by the development of the financial services sector and its deeper integration respectively. The underlying macroeconomic production function exhibits constant returns to scale and transitional declining marginal products of capital Κ and labour L. In per capita terms we can write: (1)

y = Ak + f (k)

with k for capital intensity K/L. A describes the level of technology or, in a more wider definition, macroeconomic efficiency. 8 Although we assume decreasing marginal products for the neoclassical part of the macroeconomic pro8

This kind of production function is based on Jones/Manuelli (1990). Time indices are suppressed.

16

R. Beckmann, C. Eppendorfer, W. Kösters and M. Neimke

duction function - f(k) in (1) - the endogenous part Ak guarantees a long-run constancy of the marginal product of capital so that a permanently positive growth rate results. Capital intensity k depends on investment I, population growth η and depreciation of the existing capital stock δΚ. Following Pagano (1993), the financial services sector determines which part of savings is channelled into investment, i.e. into accumulation of the economy's capital stock. Only a fraction λ of overall savings is available for investment activity: (2)

XS = XsY = l , with 0 < λ < 1.

The other fraction of savings (l-λ) "leaks" into the financial services sector. According to Pagano (1993) the financial component of the growth model can be described, for example, by the spread between lending and deposit rate. Therefore, a reduction in the interest rate spread, e.g. due to an increase in competition pressure, leads to a rising fraction of macroeconomic savings being channelled into investment. For the evolution of capital intensity k this means: (3)

k = ^ - ( 5 Κ

+

n) = Xs

Λ

f

(

k

)

- ( δ + η)

Accordingly, the transitory growth rate of per-capita income y can be written as: y= (4)

[XsA-(n + 8)] long - run component y * (λ)

+

k component of ^ λ t convergence y (λ)

By means of equation (4) the influence of the convergence component γ*(λ) decreases in time with increasing capital accumulation due to the decrease in the marginal product of capital. Countries that are already at an advanced stage of development show smaller growth rates than countries whose capital intensity is still far below their equilibrium value.9 In the long-run k approaches a permanently positive and exogenous value which is determined by the difference between XsA and (δ+η). Hence, as a condition for a positive growth rate in the long-run the validity of XsA > (δ+η) must be guaranteed.

9 In the context of the convergence discussion it is clear that this means conditional convergence. As a consequence, the considered countries that show income convergence exhibit similar characteristics to the other relevant growth determinants captured in ν * { λ ) .

A Single European Market for Financial Services

17

To summarise, we identified long-term and transitional links between financial markets and economic growth from a macroeconomic perspective in a simple approach. Using an integrated growth model that highlights both neoclassical and endogenous growth characteristics therefore constitutes an extension of the analysis of Pagano (1993). This is an important aspect because, based on the convergence component, the entire macroeconomic effect that is generated by a shift in the degree of the financial services sector's development results in a greater total growth bonus.

3. Growth Bonus of Financial Market Integration Equation (4) shows that financial markets influence both the long-term component of per-capita income growth and the transitional component. The level of λ is determined crucially by the level of development of the financial services sector, which in turn depends on its size, structure and efficiency. These different indicators of development can be significantly altered by financial market integration. A shift in parameter λ following enhanced financial market integration causes a rise in the equilibrium growth rate due to a higher growth rate of total factor productivity. This effect is similar to the efficiency function of the financial sector described above. Moreover, a catching-up process can be identified that results in a higher transitional growth rate on the way to a new steady state. This second effect is induced by the accumulation function of the financial sector which stimulates investment. However, the extent of this catching-up effect depends on the level of economic development. This means that only a conditional convergence effect can be generated.

— I

y*Vo) •

k

Figure 1 : Long-run growth and convergence bonus of financial integration

2

FS Bender

R. Beckmann, C. Eppendorfer, W. Kösters and M. Neimke

18

Figure 1 represents this way of formulating the "financial integration growth nexus" graphically. Obviously, a shift in the degree of the financial sector's development resulting in an increase in the part of savings that are transformed into investment ( λ , > λ 0 ) leads to a higher growth rate. A higher level of development can be measured in terms of an increase in the financial sector's size or efficiency or, a change in its structure. Here, a higher level of financial development and a higher growth rate can be attributed to financial market integration. Hence, financial market integration induces a short-run acceleration of the growth rate of per capita income. Furthermore, the long-term growth rate can be raised as well. The first effect can be called the "short-run growth bonus", the second one the "long-run growth bonus" of financial market integration. Financial market integration can enhance an economy's growth possibilities through the following channels: • Foreign banks and insurance companies improve the quality and availability of financial services in the domestic financial market by increasing competition. • An increase in foreign bank penetration leads to lower profitability and overhead expenditures (personal and other non-interest expenses) for banks, and this fosters economic growth by promoting domestic banking efficiency. • Higher competition in connection with possible external economies of scale forces domestic institutions to apply more advanced human skills and technology. • The presence of foreign financial companies stimulates the development of the legal framework, for example, improved banking supervision. • Financial integration enhances a country's access to international capital. The macroeconomic (static and dynamic) welfare gains over-compensate those resulting from the decrease in banking profitability. 10 Thus it can be argued that a rise in the number of foreign retail banks will result in an increased competition in the domestic market for banking products and for this reason in a reduction of the spread between lending and deposit rate, which would improve investment. Consequently, in the context of the simple growth model developed above a promotion of growth can be expected.

10

See Demirgü