Britannica Book of the Year 1983 0852294077

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1983

BRITANNICA BOOK OF THE YEAR

1983

BRITANNICA BOOK OF THE YEAR

ENCYCLOP/EDIA BRITANNICA, INC. CHICAGO AUCKLAND, GENEVA, LONDON, MANILA, PARIS, ROME, SEOUL, SYDNEY, TOKYO, TORONTO

©1983 BY ENCYCLOPEDIA BRITANNICA, INC. Copyright Under International Copyright Union All Rights Reserved Under Pan American and Universal Copyright Conventions by Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 38-12082 International Standard Book Number: 0-85229-407-7 International Standard Serial Number: 0068-1156 No part of this work may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. BRITANNICA BOOK OF THE YEAR (Trademark Reg. U.S. Pat. Off.) Printed in U.S.A.

THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO The Britannica Book of the Year is published with the editorial advice of the faculties of the University of Chicago.

Editor-in-Chief, Yearbooks Editors Editorial Staff

Advisers Correspondents

Art Director Senior Picture Editor Picture Editors Layout Artists Cartographers Art Staff Geography Editor Deputy Editor Geography Staff

Manager, Copy Department Chief Copy Editor Senior Copy Editors Copy Staff

Manager, Copy Control Copy Control Staff Manager, Index Department Assistant Manager Senior Index Editor Index Staff Manager, Editorial Computer Services Computer Systems Manager Typesetting Staff

Librarian Associate Librarian Library Aide Administrative Assistant Secretary

James Ertel Daphne Daume, Chicago J. E. Davis, London David Calhoun, Charles Cegielski, Karen Jacobs Justin, Arthur Latham; R. M. Goodwin, Louise Watson, London Martin E. Marty, Drummond Rennie, M.D. Joan Harris, Toronto Richard Grott, Sydney Shigeki Hijino, Tokyo Sergio A. Sarmiento, Mexico City J. Amaral, Rio de Janeiro Cynthia Peterson Holly Harrington LaBravia Jenkins; Barbara Hilborne, London Richard A. Roiniotis, David Segev Gerzilla Leszczynski, William W. Karpa John L. Draves, Patricia Henle, Paul Rios, Lillian Simcox William A. Cleveland Sujata Banerjee Anup K. Dam, Donna R. Falk, David W. Foster, Amelia R. Gintautas, Chandrika Kaul, Jean M. Neal, Carla J. Podrasky, Jill E. Rogers, Marcy A. Ruhlach, Lyudmila Skoropistsev, Irene L. Strack, Frank J. Yurco Anita Wolff Ruth Passin Julian Ronning, Barbara Whitney Elizabeth A. Blowers, Marsha Mackenzie Check, Ellen Finkelstein, Anne B. Hedblom, Gerilee Hundt, Patrick Joyce, Lawrence D. Kowalski, Joan Lackowski, Paul Mendelson, Mary Ann Roccaforte, Evelyn Rosen, Bill Rusk, Melinda Shepherd, Alisa Z. Shorr, Dennis Skord, Kay Skvorc, Carol Smith Mary C. Srodon Marilyn Barton, Mayme R. Cussen Frances E. Latham Rosa E. Casas Mary E. Hurley Drake A. Beadle, Carmen M. Hetrea, William T. Soltis Melvin Stagner Ronald Laugeman Griselda Chaidez, Duangnetra Debhavalya, Dora Jeffers, Judith Kobylecky, John Krom, Jr., Thomas Mulligan, Arnell Reed, Van Smith, Danette Wetterer Terry Miller Shantha Channabasappa Naomi Gralnek Ines Baptist Rosemary A. Poole, London

Editorial Administration Editor-in-Chief Philip W. Goetz Executive Editor Margaret Sutton Director of Budgets and Controller Verne Pore Director, Editorial Production J. Thomas Beatty Director, Editorial Services Robert Dehmer

ENCYCLOP/EDIA BRITANNICA, INC. Chairman of the Board Robert P. Gwinn President Charles E. Swanson

CONTENTS 8

Feature article: The Great Disarmament Debate by Lawrence Freedman A professor of war studies at the University of London who has written extensively on the subject of nuclear strategy, Lawrence Freedman examines the current public pressure for disarmament, particularly in Western Europe and the U.S. He traces the history of arms control and disarmament attempts since World War I and discusses the outlook for arms limitation.

15

Feature article: The Russian Giant: 60 Years After Formation of the Soviet Union by Zhores A. and Roy A. Medvedev Two famous Soviet authors, Zhores A. and Roy A. Medvedev, have written an enlightening article that details the flow of events in the U.S.S.R., from the formation of the Soviet Union in 1922 to the death of Leonid Brezhnev and the ascent to power of Yury Andropov.

22

Calendar of Events of 1983

26

Chronology of Events of 1982 A month-by-month summary of the significant events of 1982.

52

Unusual but Noteworthy Events Peculiar and unusual happenings that were reported around the world in 1982.

56

Disasters A catalog of the most destructive events of 1982, including man-made and natural disasters.

60

Feature article: “You Can't Foreclose a Country" by F. lotin Mathis An international economist for one of the largest U.S. commercial banks explains who owes what to whom in the world today and why banks find it necessary to continue lend ing money to debtor nations that are already behind in their repayments. He discusses the problems plaguing debtor nations and explains the difficulty some nations are having in meeting their obligations in world money markets.

65

Feature article: Stresses in the Western Alliance by Edward Heath The Western Alliance, which took shape in Europe after World War II, is facing what many believe is its most serious crisis. A former British prime minister, Edward Heath possesses first-hand knowledge of the tensions besetting the alliance, and in a clearly written article he tells what they are and how they came about. People of the Year Individuals around the world whose names figured prominently in the news in 1982:

70

Biographies

96

Nobel Prizes

99

Obituaries

129

Feature article: China's Uncertain Future by Richard H. Solomon The teeming, sprawling nation of China has long been a mystery to Westerners. Richard H. Solomon of the Rand Corporation, a noted sinologist who has traveled extensively in China, brings his understand ing of its history and peoples to this article tel I ing why China has remained a largely agrarian society instead of becoming an industrial power like its neighbour Japan and why it is so difficult to predict China's future.

138

Excerpts from the 1983 Printing of Encyclopaedia Britannica

149-738

Book of the Year An alphabetically organized treatment of the people, places, and developments of significance during 1982, includingthe following areas: Economic Development Environment and Natural Resources Food and Agriculture Health and Disease Human Affairs Industrial Review Literature and the Arts National and International Affairs Science and Technology Social Sciences Sports and Games Special Reports on many subjects Frontispiece photo credits (page 149): (top left) Milner—Sygma; (top right) Cindy Karp—Black Star; (centre left) Franceschi—Sygma; (centre right and bottom) Sygma

739

Contributors

747

Index Cumulative for issues of 1981, 1982, and 1983

SPECIAL REPORTS 181

Archaeology: The Raising of the "Mary Rose" In October a 1 7-year project to raise one of Henry Vlll's warships, which sank in 1545, was completed. Margaret Rule, who headed the committee to raise the "Mary Rose," describes the efforts that went into this undertaking to salvage a specimen of British naval history.

202

Australia: Tasmania Debates Progress Tasmania lacks jobs because it lacks energy. There is a potential for hydroelectric energy, but developing it would mean damming some of Tasmania's most beautiful rivers and conservationists are vigorously opposed. A. R. C. Griffiths describes the debate.

229

Canada: Strains Along the Border The traditionally cordial and cooperative relations between Canada and the U.S. are becoming strained for a number of reasons. Canadian parliamentary observer and newsman Peter Ward lists the causes of dissension between these two North American neighbours.

263

Crime and Law Enforcement: Computers Don't Sin: People Do With computers becoming more and more commonplace, the possibilities for computer crimes are increasing. A computer specialist, Donn B. Parker, details the kinds of crime being committed with computers and the efforts to thwart potential wrongdoers.

285

Defense: Lessons from the Falklands The Falklands conflict was a curious sort of war, fought in an area 400 miles from one of the combatants and 8,000 miles from the other. Old fashioned in some ways, it also provided the first test in battle of various ultramodern weapons systems. Robin Ranger describes how the conflict was waged and examines its possible lessons for the world's military planners.

335

Education: The Promise of Early Learning Every mother knows that her baby is probably the smartest one in the world, and she is probably right, accordingto James M. Wolf, director of U.S. Department of Defense Dependents Schools, Panama Region. Dr. Wolf discusses the learning potential of very young children and the pioneers who are helping mothers to learn how to utilize that potential.

415

Health and Disease: The New Prohibition Richard Whittingham has written an engrossing report in which he draws parallels between the rum runners of the Prohibition era and the drug smugglers of today. Upon investigation, it became clear that they and their methods are amazingly similar.

465

japan: Japan's Economic Secret Those who marvel at the Japanese industrial machine will come to understand why it is so successful when they read Frank Gibney's account. Gibney traces how management-labourgovernment cooperation transformed a once medieval nation into a modern industrial power.

485

Libraries: The "New" Censors When Huckleberry Finn was removed from the library of the Mark Twain school in Fairfax, Va., it caused immediate concern in publishing and civil libertarian circles. Self-appointed censors have become more and more active in recent years. John Berry, editor in chief of Library journal, examines their techniques and finds that the situation is not altogether new.

497

Life Sciences: Reevaluating Darwin One hundred years after the death of Charles Darwin, controversy still swirls around his theory of evolution. Jeremy Cherfas describes current thinking about Darwin's theory, including some of the knowledge that supports it and some that seems to refute it.

556

Nigeria: Africa's Awakening Giant Africa's largest and currently most successful black nation, though still facing many difficulties, is rapidly becoming both example and spokesman for the continent. So says Guy Arnold, a free-lance writer living in London, in a report that analyzes this new power on the world scene.

586

Race Relations: The Latinization of the U.S. High immigration (some legal and some illegal) and high birthrates have combined to produce large Hispanic populations that are changing the cultural complexion of many U.S. cities. In a revealing report, John T. Kenna, a writer specializing in cultural affairs, describes the similarities and differences within the Hispanic community and its—as yet unrealized—political potential.

601

Religion: New Roles for Women The percentage of people in seminaries who are women has risen each year for the last decade. More and more women are being ordained, and many are rising to positions of power and influence within church bodies. Martin E. Marty, one of the best-known theologians in the U.S., appraises the current position of women in organized religion.

627

Space Exploration: Who Benefits from the Shuttle? The successful flights of the U.S. space shuttle "Columbia" demonstrated that this expensive vehicle is not a toy but is capable of performing much useful work. Dave Doolingdescribes the benefits that can accrue to industry and to the public at large from the space shuttle flights.

656

Television and Radio: Revolution in the Soaps When the prime-time soap opera "Dallas" attracted nearly 90 million viewers for its episode revealing "who shot J.R.," it was apparent that the soaps, once confined to the daytime TV ghetto, had come of age. Robert Feder of theCh/cago Sun-Times has written an account of how the soaps gained respectability and even social significance.

698

United States: PAC's—The New Force in Politics Laws sometimes have unintended results, an example being the U.S. electoral reforms that resulted in the growth of Political Action Committees (PAC's). These powerful groups, according to Time magazine correspondent David Beckwith, are changing the way parties function, the way elections are conducted, and even the way the government operates.

ALLAN TANNENBAUM—SYGMA

THE GREAT DISARMAMENT DEBATE by Lawrence Freedman

Great armaments lead inevitably to war. The increase of ar¬ maments . . . produces a consciousness of the strength of other nations and a sense of fear.

This comment of British foreign secretary Sir Edward Grey on the Anglo-German naval arms race gained immense authority with the subsequent onset of World War I. He appeared to have identified a virtu¬ al Law of International Relations. According to this law, those who wished to prevent further war must prevent further arms races. The key to this was disar¬ mament: fixing the armed forces of all countries at the lowest possible level. Seventy years later voices are warning once again that an arms race must inevitably end in catastrophe. The warnings are given even greater urgency by the fact that the weapons involved are nuclear and the consequences of their use would move beyond mass slaughter to the destruction of whole civiliza¬ tions. In these circumstances, the cause of disarma¬ ment is understandably popular. However, the rela¬ tionship between arms races and war is not a simple one of cause and effect. Wars are not just the prod¬ uct of the accumulation of armaments but reflect real conflicts over such things as territory and ideol¬ ogy. To address the arms race without considering the political differences between nations is often to address the symptoms rather than the cause. Fur¬ thermore, as is evident from a survey of postwar efforts at disarmament and the current debate, un¬ less the underlying political differences can be mod¬ erated, the "arms race" symptoms are extremely re¬ sistant to treatment. After Hiroshima. The pro-disarmament sentiment of 1918 was not evident in the international com¬ munity in 1945. Explanations of the origins of World War II looked more to a failure to react to the Ger¬ man military challenge of the 1930s than to an arms race. There had been no equivalent to the AngloLawrence Freedman is professor of war studies at King's College, University of London. He is the author of The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy and Britain and Nu¬ clear Weapons.

German naval competition, nor was it possible to point to military machines impressing their own timetables on a crisis and forcing the hand of the diplomats. Memories of interwar efforts to promote disarmament were of cynical wrangling and dead¬ locks. Those treaties that had been adopted failed to affect the course of the war, with the possible ex¬ ception of the 1925 Geneva Protocol outlawing the use of poison gas. No disarmament treaty could have prevented Belsen and Auschwitz. In plans for a postwar world, centred on the new United Nations, the prevention of further conflicts was seen to lie in the political rather than the mili¬ tary sphere. The victorious powers expected to maintain military capabilities that would enable them to act swiftly and decisively against any re¬ newed outbreaks of aggression. Otherwise, as in 1918, after years of full mobilization and having im¬ posed total disarmament on their defeated enemies, the Allies were only too happy to run down their own armed forces as quickly as possible. Nevertheless, disarmament was still high on the international agenda. The reason was the impres¬ sion of awesome power and destructiveness created by the atomic bomb, whose use against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki had dramatically ended the war. Whatever might be done about the generality of weapons, urgent action was needed in this special case. Even in the United States, with its monopoly of atomic weapons, there was a disposi¬ tion to nip this dangerous new development in the bud. Accordingly, in 1946 the U.S. put forward a plan to internationalize atomic technology and pre¬ vent its full exploitation for military purposes. Unfortunately, the U.S. plan was framed in such a manner as to excite Soviet suspicions, and it soon got bogged down with the onset of the cold war. The political conditions became unfavourable, and the relevant UN committees devoted themselves to scoring propaganda points rather than serious nego¬ tiating. The warning signs were the tendencies to¬ ward utopian and all-embracing plans. Argument could not be limited to the area of atomic weapons, 9

where for much of the 1950s the U.S. had a clear lead, but inevitably began to include all other weap¬ ons as well. Why should the West forgo its nuclear superiority if the East would not relinquish its con¬ ventional superiority? So the discussion got tangled up in military and political complexities. Agreement depended on an understanding between the super¬ powers, but their antagonism prevented any agree¬ ment. American suspicions of Soviet secrecy meant that the U.S. put an enormous premium on methods to verify compliance with the provisions of any trea¬ ty by making the closed Soviet society as transparent as possible. Still, neither side wished to appear re¬ sponsible for dashing international disarmament hopes, so Washington and Moscow engaged in a sort of competitive bidding, putting forward ever more elaborate and fanciful schemes to ensure Gen¬ eral and Complete Disarmament. Arms Control. Long before this futile process reached its peak at the start of the 1960s, moves had begun on a more fruitful approach to the regulation of armaments. This approach came to be known as arms control. It accepted that nuclear weapons and East-West antagonism would be features of interna¬ tional life for many years. The challenge was to find ways to reduce the consequent dangers. If the nu¬ clear threat could not be eliminated, it could at least be contained. If a military paralysis based on a bal¬ ance of terror was developing, then perhaps this coula be fortified to remove temptations to settle differences once and for all in some decisive battle, or to rush from crisis to war in a preemptive strike through fear of being caught napping. Superpower political relations had to ease to give even this modest approach an opportunity to show its potential. The opportunity came after the Octo¬ ber 1962 Cuban missile crisis when, having gone so A drawing by a survivor of the Nagasaki atomic bomb blast de¬ picts the blackened body of a five-year-old boy raising his arms to heaven.

DRAWING BY MASATO YAMASHITA

10

close to the brink, the leaders of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. resolved to develop a less stressful relation¬ ship. Additional help was provided by advances in satellite reconnaissance that began to open up Sovi¬ et and U.S. territories to each other's penetrating gaze. As there was little that could be done about this, it became recognized as a reliable means of ver¬ ification. In the ensuing decade, arms control chalked up some impressive achievements: the 1963 Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty, which, while failing to be comprehensive, banned atmospheric explo¬ sions and so eased public anxieties over the harmful effects of radioactive fallout; the 1966 Outer Space Treaty, which kept nuclear weapons out of space; the 1968 Non-proliferation Treaty, which con¬ strained the spread of military nuclear technology; the 1970 Seabed Treaty; and, as the first substantive result of the strategic arms limitation talks (salt) be¬ gun by the superpowers in 1969, the 1972 treaty lim¬ iting antiballistic missiles. This last pact, combined with a short-term agreement putting a ceiling on the numbers of offensive nuclear weapons, became known as salt I. By 1972, with detente in full swing, there seemed every reason to believe that the pattern of regular agreements would continue. The next stage was to be a more comprehensive treaty on offensive nucle¬ ar arms, and at Vladivostok, U.S.S.R., in December 1974, Leonid Brezhnev, general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and U.S. Pres. Gerald Ford announced the framework for an agree¬ ment. Meanwhile, in 1973, NATO and the Warsaw Pact had begun to discuss ways of reducing the bur¬ den of conventional forces in central Europe in the talks held in Vienna on mutual and balanced force reductions. Loss of Momentum. This promise was not ful¬ filled. After acrimonious and difficult negotiations, a salt ii treaty was agreed on in June 1979, but it was not ratified by the U.S. Senate. The Vienna talks failed to overcome fundamental disagreements over data. A set of arms control initiatives undertaken in 1977 to breathe life into the enterprise—concerning a variety of issues ranging from a comprehensive test ban to limits on antisatellite and chemical weap¬ ons and reform of the arms trade—all faltered. One reason was the loss of momentum in detente, large¬ ly as a result of superpower rivalries and interven¬ tions in the third world (particularly by the Soviet Union). Under these conditions, negotiations be¬ came tougher, with greater domestic suspicion of the motives of the other side. Another problem was uncertainty over objectives, at least in the West. This was part of a general uncer¬ tainty about strategic doctrine, revolving around ar¬ guments over whether all that was necessary for

SVEN SIMON—KATHERINE YOUNG

Former U.S. Pres. Jimmy Carter and Soviet Pres. Leonid Brezhnev ex¬ change copies of the SALT II agree¬ ment after the documents were signed in 1979.

deterrence and stability was for both sides to be able to assure destruction of the other. Even if a balance of terror was firmly in place, were there other forms of superiority that might be translated into a decisive political advantage? The promoters of arms control were generally doubtful. In 1974, in a moment of frustration, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger exclaimed: “We have to ask ourselves . . . what in the name of God is strategic superiority? What is the significance of it, politically, militarily, operationally, at these levels of numbers? What do you do with it?" There was no agreed answer to this general ques¬ tion, or to the specific question: if “superiority" was believed to be significant, exactly what type and degree of superiority made the difference? For ne¬ gotiating purposes it seemed sensible to concen¬ trate on simple numbers and rectify any imbalances with common ceilings. East and West could then claim to be “second to none." However, such visi¬ ble parity seemed artificial to the technically mind¬ ed, who were more interested in what each side could do in actual warfare than in comparing static inventories. U.S. technicians noted asymmetries in force structure that escaped treaty language, particu¬ larly the growing Soviet lead in warheads on inter¬ continental ballistic missiles (icbm's). They began to worry that under cover of salt and an irrelevant numerical parity, the U.S.S.R. was being allowed to attain a potentially decisive strategic advantage. Even those unimpressed by such fears found the calculation of parity difficult. The negotiations were becoming less manageable as attention moved from the first stage—setting limits to military activity by marking boundaries that few had shown an inclina¬ tion to cross—to making substantial adjustments to existing capabilities and plans. There was no self-ev¬

ident formula for “parity," for the two force struc¬ tures were quite different in composition. Did one count launchers or warheads? Should an icbm count the same as a bomber? Should one make allowances for the British, French, and Chinese forces facing the U.S.S.R.? In each country programs with strong po¬ litical support had to be protected from arms con¬ trol. To the other country, these were precisely the programs to which a stop had to be put if the exer¬ cise was to be worthwhile. Under adverse political conditions, this mix created a barely tractable set of problems. In retrospect, many of the early successes seemed easy. Underground testing of nuclear weapons was a ready substitute for atmospheric testing; there was no great military interest in putting nuclear weapons in space or in Antarctica or on the seabed; the tech¬ nology of antiballistic missiles was not showing any particular promise. Once negotiators began to ad¬ dress the more dynamic offensive weapons, they found themselves barely able to cope, bypassed by new developments and outpaced by production programs. The eventual salt ii treaty of June 1979 was hardly satisfactory. It was enormously complex yet im¬ posed only marginal changes on the nuclear arse¬ nals. If anything, it required most of the U.S.S.R., but that did not prevent a powerful opposition, largely mounted on the right, from developing in the U.S. Critics charged that the treaty threatened valuable U.S. military options, failed to constrain the most dangerous aspects of the Soviet military buildup, and perpetuated an illusion of detente. Although U.S. Pres. Jimmy Carter had answers to all these points, after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 he no longer felt disposed to make 11

an effort on salt il's behalf. The treaty languished, unratified, in the Senate. Pres. Ronald Reagan, entering office in January 1981, described salt ii as “fatally flawed" and argued for a major program of rearmament to regain ground lost in the 1970s. According to his officials, the U.S. had been so preoccupied with arms control that it had neglected to take full note of the Soviet buildup. The Nuclear Debate. Distrust of all forms of dip¬ lomatic contact with the Soviet Union, interest in the possibility of conducting nuclear wars to pro¬ duce results approximating "victory," and a readi¬ ness to increase purchases of all types of military hardware generated some consternation among the U.S.'s allies. The fear in Western Europe was that a breakdown in U.S.-Soviet relations would unravel all the local benefits of detente, from the settlement of the territorial status quo to East-West trade. In addi¬ tion, a renewed arms race would aggravate the gen¬ eral sense of tension, raise the terrible spectre of nu¬ clear war, and, if the U.S. was deemed responsible, put an added strain on the NATO alliance. In the early 1980s there was widespread protest in Western Europe against the nuclear policies of NATO. In the latter part of 1981 many of the continent's capitals were filled with demonstrations, sometimes involving up to 250,000 people. The origins of this renewal of the antinuclear movement, which had last peaked in the late 1950s and 1960s, go back to 1977, when the "neutron bomb" gained notoriety. To NATO officials this was an "enhanced-radiation weapon" designed to disable tank crews; to its op¬ ponents it would "kill people but leave buildings in¬ tact"—the ultimate "capitalist weapon." Revulsion against the neutron bomb led to a massive public outcry. In The Netherlands, with the encouragement of religious leaders, some one million signatures were collected in opposition. The "Greens," a group of mainly young people campaigning for the environment and against nuclear energy, became a force in West German politics in 1982.

POLY-PRESS/KATHERINE YOUNG

12

The outcry led President Carter in April 1978 to defer production of the neutron bomb. The protest groups calmed down but then re-formed in 1979 to oppose plans by NATO to base 464 Tomahawk cruise missiles in Belgium, Britain, The Netherlands, Italy, and West Germany, along with 108 Pershing ballistic missiles in West Germany. This deployment was designed to modernize a well-established capabili¬ ty. U.S. nuclear weapons had been based in Europe since the early 1950s, partly to offset Soviet superi¬ ority in conventional forces but increasingly to cou¬ ple the defense of Western Europe with the U.S. nu¬ clear arsenal. The theory was that the Kremlin was deterred from any aggression by the risk that war would "go nuclear" but that the risk would be insuf¬ ficient if U.S. weapons were stored out of harm's way in North America. In the mid-1970s concern grew in defense circles, at first mainly in Europe, that gradual obsolescence of the long-range aircraft on the nato side was being exploited by determined improvements in equivalent Soviet capabilities, most notably the Backfire bomber and the SS-20 triple-headed missile. From this perspective, NATO's decision on Dec. 12,1979, to deploy the cruise and Pershing missiles was seen as merely a prudent mea¬ sure to fill a gap. In an attempt to ward off the expected protest, NATO added to the armament program a second track of arms control, offering to limit the number of new NATO missiles in return for severe restrictions on comparable Soviet missiles. Unfortunately, the cred¬ ibility of this diplomatic alternative was shattered within weeks. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan undermined all East-West diplomacy and made ear¬ ly ratification of salt ii impossible. New Fears. The Carter administration then an¬ nounced, in June 1980, a new doctrine for targeting nuclear weapons that emphasized selectivity, flexi¬ bility, and command and control, thus implying an expectation that nuclear exchanges could turn into old-fashioned battles rather than orgies of mutual destruction. No such confidence was actually claimed, only a worry that the U.S.S.R. might try to fight in such a manner, but the critics feared that the U.S. government was now harbouring dangerous notions concerning the utility of nuclear weapons in conventional warfare. In Europe opponents linked this new doctrine (known officially as Presidential Directive 59) with the highly accurate weapons coming into Europe and the low state of East-West relations. From this, they concluded that the U.S. was shaping up for some confrontation with the Soviet Union which it intended to fight with nuclear weapons all over Eu¬ rope. This fear grew after the U.S. presidential elec¬ tion in November 1980. Ronald Reagan was known

DRAWING BY MARTIN © 1982 THE NEW YORKER MAGAZINE, INC.

to be distrustful of arms control, a believer in ener¬ getic schemes for rearmament, and interested in ac¬ tive nuclear strategies. Vigorous and determined protest movements gathered strength in Europe. Some, like the "Greens" in West Germany led by Petra Kelly (see Biographies), reflected an environmentalist bias and a history of campaigning against nuclear energy fa¬ cilities. The British-based campaign for European Nuclear Disarmament, inspired by the social histori¬ an E. P. Thompson, linked opposition to cruise mis¬ siles with an aspiration to dissolve the two alli¬ ances—NATO and the Warsaw Pact—dividing Europe. These movements soon influenced political parties. In Britain the Labour Party resolved to have nothing whatever to do with nuclear weapons. In West Germany immense strains were put on the Social Democratic Party; even the Christian Demo¬ crats, whose leader, Helmut Kohl, replaced Helmut Schmidt as federal chancellor in October 1982, were not immune to antinuclear influences. In The Neth¬ erlands all but the centre Liberal Party reflected the same trend. The trend, in fact, could be detected throughout northern Europe, though it was much less evident in the south. Pres. Frangois Mitterrand of France, despite his Socialism, upheld the estab¬ lished French faith in nuclear deterrence, while in It¬ aly protest against cruise missiles was rather late in gaining momentum. It came to be assumed that, whereas opinion in the U.S. was robustly anti-Communist and ready for high levels of defense spending, opinion in Europe was drifting in exactly the opposite direction. This picture was always somewhat misleading. Polls in both the U.S. and Western Europe demonstrated strong support for established policies as well as increasing nervousness over the risk of nuclear war. Toward the end of 1981 the U.S. was beginning to develop its own protest movement, organized around the call for a "nuclear freeze"—that is, cessa¬ tion of all new work on weapons development, pro¬ duction, and deployment. The idea was to halt the arms race before it was beyond control. The Freeze Resolution was put to both the Senate and the House of Representatives (where it just failed) and to a number of state referenda (where it passed in most cases). Although bipartisan in leadership— Democrat Edward Kennedy and Republican Mark Hatfield sponsored the resolution in the Senate— the movement was animated by opposition to the policies of the Reagan administration. The Reagan administration's image was not helped by regular Soviet disarmament initiatives. In October 1979 President Brezhnev promised un¬ specified concessions if NATO would abandon its plans for new missiles in Europe. Then he offered a

"I figure the universe was formed with a big bang so it might as well end with a big bang.”

moratorium: no new missiles on either side. Later Brezhnev even claimed to have ordered a unilateral freeze on the Soviet side. The impact was not enor¬ mous. There was nothing particularly magnanimous about offering to freeze deployments of weapons in an area of substantial Soviet superiority. Neverthe¬ less, the rhetoric and regular initiatives from the Warsaw Pact helped to put the Reagan administra¬ tion on the defensive. Reagan's Response. President Reagan insisted that he was not opposed to the principle of arms control negotiations but was only reluctant to sit at t^e same table with the U.S.S.R. while it was still indulging in unacceptable behaviour in such places as Afghani¬ stan. When, in response to domestic and interna¬ tional pressure, he did eventually put forward initia¬ tives of his own in late 1981, he was anxious to avoid repeating what he saw as the deficiencies of salt: its failure to deal adequately with the most menacing aspects of the Soviet buildup and its imposition of permissive ceilings, rather than substantial reduc¬ tions, in armaments. In the second of these complaints against salt, President Reagan was quite close to the critique made by the antinuclear movements. They also cas¬ tigated previous arms control efforts for not achiev¬ ing disarmament. In fact, Reagan's first major pro¬ posal was surprisingly close to an antinuclear slogan. In November 1981 U.S.-Soviet discussions began in 13

WIDE WORLD

Some 30,000 women antinuclear protestors linked arms in a human chain encircling a U.S. Air Force base at Greenham Common, England, a planned site of U.S. cruise missiles.

Geneva on intermediate nuclear forces—a new name for the longer-range nuclear weapons based in and around Europe. At a speech to the National Press Club, President Reagan proposed the "zero option," offering to abandon plans for cruise and Pershing missiles in return for the dismantling of all Soviet SS-20s, along with the older SS-4s and SS-5s. In the West this was politically effective, but it was certain to be unacceptable to the U.S.S.R. be¬ cause it required the Soviets to give up something for nothing. Soviet proposals emphasized the need to bring in the British and French nuclear forces and U.S. aircraft in Europe. The asymmetry of the two force structures and the technical problems of de¬ ciding on what to count (location or type of weap¬ on; launchers or warheads) make it hard to envision a satisfactory conclusion to the talks. The first anni¬ versary passed without any breakthroughs. In principle, strategic arms talks appeared to be a better prospect. Many of the technical details and problems of definition had been ironed out in a decade of discussions. The forces were sufficiently comparable to permit some agreement based on parity. However, the political context was less fa¬ vourable, with every move surrounded by contro¬ versy. President Reagan's approach was again calcu¬ lated to disarm his critics as much as the U.S.S.R. He proposed radical cuts in strategic arms on the eve of the resumption of talks—after a gap of three years— in June 1982. He renamed the negotiations Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (start) and proposed com¬ mon ceilings of 5,000 missile warheads, half of which could be on icbm's, and 850 deployed mis¬ siles—only 50% of current levels. Skeptics noted that this posed maximum inconvenience to the U.S.S.R., with its heavy dependence on multiplewarhead icbm's, and minimum disruption to U.S. plans. Nevertheless, the philosophy of cuts was compelling, and the Soviet proposal of ceilings of 14

1,800 for all missiles and bombers reflected this mood. The two positions were not hopelessly apart, but neither appeared flexible and there were many negotiating pitfalls in the incidental details. The Future. Arms control was hardly bursting with promise in 1982, but at least serious discussions were beginning once more. Those anxious for more urgent and fundamental action had little cause for comfort. Despite a number of years of sustained pressure by the antinuclear movement, no major NATO country had opted for unilateral disarmament of any sort. Those who dreamed of parallel move¬ ments in Eastern and Western Europe, working to¬ gether to expel nuclear weapons from the conti¬ nent, saw their hopes dashed with the imposition of martial law in Poland and the crushing of the small independent "peace" groups in East Germany and the Soviet Union. The vision of a "nuclear-free zone"—always unlikely because of France's attach¬ ment to its force de frappe and the fact that some 40% of all Soviet nuclear forces are based in the Eu¬ ropean part of the country—seemed even more im¬ practical. The more modest proposal of a nuclear freeze was critically dependent on a change in U.S. administration, impossible before January 1985. Meanwhile, there was no progress in attempts to organize old-fashioned disarmament through the UN. In 1978 a special session of the UN achieved a common agenda for disarmament. At a second spe¬ cial session in the summer of 1982, the attempt to move beyond that agenda failed, a victim of the prevailing state of international distrust. A group of senior statesmen and others from all sections of the international community, including the U.S. (former secretary of state Cyrus Vance) and the U.S.S.R. and chaired by Sweden's Olof Palme (the Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues), produced a report for the session that gained credi¬ bility only by the moderation of its objectives; these were mainly to urge expeditious completion of all the various negotiations begun in the 1970s. Thoroughgoing schemes for disarmament require a degree of international accord that is not likely to exist for some time to come. The most optimistic construction on the current situation is that some sort of marriage is taking place between the arms controllers' preoccupation with stability and the dis¬ armed' desire for tangible reductions in armaments. But there is no prospect of reductions to a point where war is anything less than catastrophic—to re¬ duce "overkill" still leaves "kill"—and even prog¬ ress in this direction is highly dependent on im¬ provements in superpower relations. Ultimately, it is in the political sphere that answers to the prob¬ lems of war and the peacetime burden of arma¬ ments must be found.

THE RUSSIAN GIANT: 60 YEARS AFTER FORMATION OF THE SOVIET UNION by Zhores A. and Roy A. Medvedev The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was de¬ clared a multinational federative state at the very end of 1922, the draft of the new constitution hav¬ ing been written by Lenin. There was no unanimous agreement about this draft among Lenin's Bolshevik colleagues. Lenin wanted a federation of "equal" republics, with the right of each to independence. Joseph Stalin and Leon Trotsky wanted more formal Russian domination with strict subordination of the other national republics. Lenin won the constitu¬ tional battle, but when he died in January 1924, he left the power over the country and the Communist Party to the newly emerged Communist bureaucracy which had no intention of respecting the constitu¬ tional rights either of citizens or of the nations that formed the Soviet Union. The constitution acknowl¬ edged the importance of democratic rights, but it in¬ cluded no formula to guarantee them at all levels of social life. Furthermore, it did not solve the problem of leadership succession: the possibility of a power struggle made the choice of leader by democratic process difficult even within the party system. The year 1982 was declared an official Jubilee year. The Soviet population was reminded of this by countless posters, slogans, and news headlines. While the country had changed enormously in many ways during the intervening 60 years, the lack of consistency and the contradictions between real and constitutional rights were by now even more visible than they were in 1922. Growth of the U.S.S.R. and World Communism. In 1922 there were only four constituent republics of the U.S.S.R.: the Russian Federal Republic, the Zhores and Roy Medvedev are co-authors of Khru¬ shchev—The Years in Power and A Question of Madness. Zhores Medvedev, a biologist who until leaving the U.S.S.R. held important posts in Soviet research insti¬ tutes, has worked at the National Institute for Medical Research, London, since 1973; besides numerous sci¬ entific publications, his books include The Rise and Fall of T. D. Lysenko, The Medvedev Papers, and The Nuclear Disaster in the Urals. Zhores's twin brother, Roy, a histo¬ rian and sociologist still resident in the U.S.S.R., is the author of Let History Judge, The October Revolution, Khrushchev, On Soviet Dissent, Leninism and Western Socialism, and other books.

Ukraine, Belorussia, and the Transcaucasian Repub¬ lic. Lenin insisted on a federation of independent republics because he believed that the Union would grow in the future, both through internal develop¬ ment and by the voluntary accession of other coun¬ tries which would become socialist. The Union did indeed grow: the Uzbek and Turkmen republics, formed in 1924, became constituent members in 1925, and the Tadzhik Republic joined in 1929. By 1936, when the new Stalin Constitution was adopt¬ ed, the number of republics was already 11. A few more were incorporated in 1939 and 1940—the Karelo-Finnish Republic, Moldavia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; however, they joined not voluntarily but under coercion. The war against Nazi Germany in 1941-45 and against Japan in 1945 brought several Eastern European states and North Korea under Sovi¬ et domination, though these did not become repub¬ lics in the Union. But it was not only Soviet military power that was responsible for the spread of Communism. The de¬ feat of Fascism in Europe and militarism in Asia in¬ creased the worldwide influence of Communist movements. The new Communist regimes in Alba¬ nia, Yugoslavia, and China emerged essentially as a result of national revolutions and civil wars within those countries. Although the Soviet Union sup¬ ported their revolutions, it was unable to transform them into satellite states. Greece came very close to Communism in the years from 1944 to 1946. The Communist Party of Italy might also have come to power if the country had not been under AngloAmerican occupation during the last stage of World War II. Even France was not immune from the possi¬ bility of a Communist takeover during this period because the traditional ruling groups in that nation had collaborated with Germany. When Stalin died in 1953, about one-third of the world's population lived under the banner of Marxism-Leninism. But the structural unity of the world Communist system proved unable to survive nationalistic and ideologi¬ cal disputes. Nevertheless, the Communist move¬ ment has continued to attract new adherents, al¬ though at a much slower pace. Cuba, Vietnam, Laos, Kampuchea Angola, Mozambique, South Yemen, 15

UPI

Soviet Pres. Yury Andropov, then KGB chief, addressed Soviet leaders in a Lenin birthday celebration in the Kremlin in April. A portrait of Lenin loomed large in the background.

Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, and several other smaller na¬ tions can now be considered to have Marxist-Leninist regimes. When the capitalist economic system takes the form of Nazism, feudal monarchy, or military dicta¬ torship, and when this is aggravated by poverty and social polarization, the confrontation between right and left often develops into a revolutionary struggle. Thus new Marxist regimes will continue to appear, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. In the modern world of superpowers the final outcome of a revolutionary struggle often does not depend upon internal factors alone—the examples of Chile, Vietnam, and Angola show this clearly. External aid in the form of arms, training, financial grants, and di¬ rect military assistance may be decisive. Who helps whom often (but not always) depends upon ideo¬ logical considerations. The survival of the Communist system in the Sovi¬ et Union, in China, and even in Eastern Europe is not in serious doubt. It is unrealistic to expect the immi¬ nent collapse of the world Communist system, even if some observers see signs of this in Poland. The question of “Whither Communism?" is relevant not to the survival of already well-established Commu¬ nist states but rather to their ability to generate and support Communist ideology in the rest of the 16

world, to be an attractive model for others. Active assistance to radical Marxist regimes and revolution¬ ary movements in the third world is of huge eco¬ nomic and political cost. Will the Soviet Union be able to continue carrying this burden? This question can only be answered by analyzing the economic and political situation within the Soviet bloc. Since the changes in the Soviet leadership following the death of Leonid Brezhnev (see Obituaries), the probable priorities of his successor, Yury Andropov (see Biographies), and the latter's new team are equally important aspects of the question. Successes and Failures. The Soviet Union has an impressive list of achievements to show for its 60 years of existence: the rapid industrial reconstruc¬ tion of agrarian and undeveloped Russia; the diffi¬ cult victory in World War II against Nazi Germany and its allies; the educational revolution; the build¬ ing of a modern and powerful army. But 60 years of Soviet history have also recorded some events that are hardly mentioned in relation to the jubilee. The forced and brutal collectivization of agriculture (1930-33) cost the lives of millions of people; it did not solve the food problem but in¬ stead retarded the production of grain, meat, and dairy products for years to come. Stalin's rule of terror and repeated purges from 1928 to 1953 took almost the same toll of human lives—about 20 mil¬ lion—as did the war against Germany. Although the situation began to change during Nikita Khru¬ shchev's era, the image of the Soviet Union as the most repressive postwar regime remained for years. It damaged the structure of the “just society" that the first Communist thinkers had expected would be built upon the foundations of the proletarian revolution. The plight of the Soviet population under Stalin's regime shows that the current economic and politi¬ cal crisis is certainly not the most serious in Soviet history. The current crisis does not threaten the Communist system, because it has not developed as an isolated problem unique to the Soviet bloc. It appeared simultaneously with the deep postwar re¬ cession in Western Europe and the U.S., and the desperate economic plight of many major countries of Latin America and Africa. It can also be seen in relation to China's apparent failure to modernize rapidly and the economic difficulties of the unique Yugoslav model of socialist self-management. How¬ ever, if the crisis in the West can be explained in economic terms, the problems of the U.S.S.R. are essentially related to an accumulation of errors and the political and economic mismanagement of an inept leadership. The most serious economic crisis of Lenin's gov¬ ernment in 1921 was the result of the arbitrary and

repressive system of War Communism. Lenin was the only leader in Soviet history who was bold enough to acknowledge a failure. He replaced War Communism with the successful New Economic Policy, with its mixed socialist and capitalist sectors which competed with and complemented each other. When Stalin became leader, this balanced de¬ velopment quickly became distorted. Stalin's model of rapid industrialization was based mainly upon the forced extraction of human and economic resources from the rural agricultural sector and from the pri¬ vate trade and light industrial sectors. The historical necessity for these methods was far from certain. The losses in light industry, trade, and food produc¬ tion during the 1930s and the horrendous purges did little to help prepare the country for the inevit¬ able war against Germany. The most important fac¬ tors for the outcome of the war were the enormous size of the country and the significant reserves of the population. After the war, during the last years of Stalin's life, the economic crisis manifested itself primarily in the form of acute shortages of food and consumer goods and the extreme poverty of the collective farm peasants. Soviet agriculture was now depen¬ dent upon a semifeudal system which attached peasants to the collective farms and made them work under the threat of prison camps. During the period 1950-53 the total production of food only reached the level of 1913, and the urban population had significantly increased. Stalin's death in 1953 saved the country from the gloomy prospect of rural starvation and a new series of purges. After Stalin. Khrushchev's reforms quickly im¬ proved the economic and political situation. From 1954 to 1958 the growth of all sectors of the econo¬ my was about 11-12% per annum. The most visible growth was in agriculture. The annual production of grain rose from an average of 80 million metric tons (1950-53) to 130 million-140 million metric tons. However, Khrushchev's subsequent reorganizations were carried out hastily. Attempts to produce an artificially accelerated growth rate miscarried and had the reverse effect—the production of food de¬ clined again. The bitter quarrel with China split the Communist system into two hostile camps and made it necessary to increase the Soviet defense budget. Khrushchev's errors and blunders continued to mount until they reached a critical level in 1964, when his Politburo colleagues voted him into retirement. The new leadership of Leonid Brezhnev managed to restore a more balanced economy and began to transform the country into a modern consumer soci¬ ety. However, the leadership was already too old and inflexible to introduce the necessary political

and economic reforms when new serious problems started to emerge at the end of the 1970s. As the history of the U.S.S.R. clearly shows, then, the performance of the system is closely linked to the performance of the men at the top. What is more, their style, their knowledge, their character, and even their tastes are reflected not only in the methods of rule but in almost everything, ranging from literature and the arts to industry, agriculture, and international policy. The dependence of the fate of a country on individual leaders is not, of course, restricted to the Communist system. But in the West this dependence is often temporary, and it is less comprehensive than in the Soviet Union. Western leaders are less involved in day-to-day eco¬ nomic and industrial decision-making processes. The Soviet economy is much more centralized, and it is entirely dependent upon government deci¬ sions. Because the Soviet Union is now the centre of a large group of countries linked in the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (cmea or Comecon), which is responsible for about 30% of the world in¬ dustrial output, possible changes of economic poli¬ cy related to leadership transition attract intense attention. The Leadership Problem. In no Communist coun¬ try does the constitution make provision for an or¬ derly succession, nor are the criteria for changing the leader made explicit. In fact, the durability of in¬ dividual rule has become an integral part of the le¬ gitimacy of most such regimes. Aging and ill health are still the main indicators of possible changes at the top, which, when they happen in large powers like the U.S.S.R. or China, can alter the course of world politics. In the Soviet Union Khrushchev's dismissal prompted the Politburo to set a compulsory retire¬ ment age of 70 for its leaders. However, when Brezhnev was approaching 70, the compulsory re¬ tirement age was canceled "for outstanding figures of the party and state." The venerable age of the cur¬ rent leaders relates them to the revolutionary period and is a part of their claim to legitimacy. That is why the deaths of Brezhnev, Premier Aleksey Kosygin, and chief party ideologue Mikhail Suslov (see Obitu¬ aries), together with the retirement of Andrey Kiri¬ lenko, mean for the Soviet Union much more than the change of a few leaders—they mean the end of a whole political era. At 68, Andropov is older than any of his predecessors when they assumed power, but for replacements in many important positions he is selecting much younger men who will proba¬ bly remain in office for at least a decade. They be¬ long to a generation that not only does not remem¬ ber the Revolution and Civil War but often took only a minor part in World War II. This will make it diffi17

cult for them to build up the kind of "personality cult" that proved to be so important for their prede¬ cessors. Moreover, they will face difficult decisions. The economy of the U.S.S.R. is in poor shape, and Soviet-style Communism is in a critical condition in such neighbouring countries as Poland and Afghanistan. Power Base of the Soviet Leadership. Lenin's main power base was the October Revolution itself and all its institutions and reforms. The party had not yet developed a bureaucratic apparatus, and Lenin ruled the country as the chairman of the first revolu¬ tionary government, the Council of People's Com¬ missars. When Stalin was appointed general secre¬ tary of the Communist Party Central Committee in 1922, he was not a popular figure and was not con¬ sidered a possible successor to Lenin. But he skillful¬ ly began to form an influential party apparatus which he used as his power base in the struggle with the left and right opposition in the 1920s. When he started to become de facto dictator rather than party leader, he made the state security system the power¬ ful instrument of his personal rule, able to carry out comprehensive purges of all ranks of the party, mili¬ tary, and state systems. The party apparatus was not abolished, but its influence declined. From 1934 to 1953 the Soviet Union was, in all practical senses, a police state. Before World War II Stalin abolished the post of general secretary of the Central Commit¬ tee and assumed the post of chairman of the gov¬ ernment, one more convenient for direct rule. Khrushchev is best remembered in Soviet political history for his elimination in 1953 of Lavrenty Beria and his top security henchmen and for his "secret speech" in 1956, which exposed and condemned many of Stalin's crimes. The exceptional position of the security system was abolished, and the party system and party bureaucracy regained priority. Khrushchev himself was not a typical party bureau¬ crat— his style of rule was more open, though still far from being democratic. Party power had been re¬ stored, but the party only made directives. Final de¬ cisions had to be made and implemented by the government. It was, therefore, to Khrushchev's ad¬ vantage to assume the post of premier in addition to his position as leader of the party in 1958. This step, however, restored the possibilities for personal dic¬ tatorship, and Khrushchev was not immune from the misuse of power and the creation of a personal¬ ity cult. Khrushchev was a de facto dictator, but the party apparatus remained his power base. When he introduced an unpopular reorganization of the party apparatus that reduced the influence of local bosses, his relations with the party bureaucracy were seri¬ ously damaged. His seven-year plan for economic development failed, and he had no powerful securi¬ 18

ty system to protect him from his angry colleagues. His removal was a comparatively painless leadership change. Only one man —Khrushchev himself—lost his post. As a precaution against repetition of per¬ sonal rule, the Central Committee decreed that the positions of party leader and head of government should be separated forever. The Brezhnev Era. Brezhnev's power was, there¬ fore, much more limited. Leadership was effectively collective, based on Politburo consensus, even after the restoration of the position of general secretary in 1966. Kosygin had independent views about the economy, and both Suslov and Nikolay Podgorny had independent sources of influence. But like pre¬ vious Soviet leaders, Brezhnev began to consolidate his power. In 1977 he assumed Podgorny's post of chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet and managed to remove him from the Politburo. This made Brezhnev titular head of state. When Ko¬ sygin became ill in 1980, Brezhnev succeeded in replacing him with Nikolay Tikhonov, a rather weak premier but an old friend and protege. Brezhnev's personality cult grew. But by the time he achieved this concentration of power, he was already too old and too ill to use it or to lead the country efficiently. When his old friends and relatives started to assume important state and party positions, the more tech¬ nocratic members of the Politburo and Central Com¬ mittee objected. Brezhnev failed to secure Suslov's position for Konstantin Chernenko, his aide and confidant since the 1950s. Instead, Andropov, then head of the security force (kgb), was appointed to this post, the second most important in the party hi¬ erarchy. Until 1967 Andropov was the secretary of the party Central Committee responsible for Soviet relations with other socialist countries. He had his own political objectives, and his rise, supported by the more technocratic group in the Politburo (Dmitry Ustinov, Andrey Gromyko, Mikhail Gorba¬ chev, and Vladimir Shcherbitsky), secured his elec¬ tion as general secretary after Brezhnev's death. Few new bold initiatives were adopted during Brezhnev's era. Most of the reforms—a limited at¬ tempt to introduce market forces into the economy; an increase in the procurement prices paid to farm¬ ers; increasing investment in agriculture; the en¬ couragement of more effective use of private plots of land —were Kosygin's ideas. Many of these re¬ forms were half measures, and they generated very modest incentives. But the absence of reorganiza¬ tion and the lack of coercion were welcomed by the managerial groups, and economic growth was per¬ sistent, although slower than before. However, the absence of strong leadership also encouraged offi¬ cial corruption. The policy of detente with the West improved

the international position of the U.S.S.R. The de¬ cline of U.S. influence in the world was not directly related to Soviet actions. It was more the result of errors and miscalculations by the administrations of U.S. Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Jim¬ my Carter. Just when Soviet international policy was predictable and consistent, U.S. policy was unstable. The peak of Brezhnev's success at home was reached in 1978, when the U.S.S.R. reaped a record harvest of 230 million metric tons of grain. The peak of his detente policy was in June 1979, when the new salt ii (Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty II) was signed in Vienna. However, there were new chal¬ lenges at home and abroad at the start of the 1980s, and the aging Soviet bureaucracy responded inade¬ quately. The situation was complicated by four poor harvests in a row: 180 million metric tons of grain per annum and a decrease in the production of meat and dairy products created food shortages and the need for massive purchases of food abroad. The popularity of the leadership declined sharply, and the closed, secretive style of Brezhnev's rule in¬ creased the gap between the Soviet people and their leaders. However, discontent did not develop into real opposition, as happened in Poland, where the crisis was much more serious. In the Soviet Union there was a visible slowing down of the growth rate but no actual decline in the gross national product (gnp) or in living standards. The Soviet political system was also much more stable than that of Poland. The alter¬ native extraparty opposition was represented by small and weak groups of dissidents who had no links with workers or peasants. The influence of the Orthodox Church and other religions had been weak ever since religious institutions were re¬ pressed under Lenin, Stalin, and Khrushchev. Soviet people tend to wait for change to occur at the top. From Bureaucracy to Technocracy. The most likely outcome of the Andropov ascendancy is an increase in the influence of the technocratic ele¬ ments in the Soviet leadership. The emergence of a younger, more pragmatic, and more flexible genera¬ tion of state and party leaders is inevitable within two to three years, if not sooner. Any significant reduction in the dominant role of the Communist Party is unlikely—it is still the most efficient appara¬ tus of power. But the essence of the Communist doctrine concerning economic and political pro¬ cesses will probably change. Some modest experi¬ ments with a mixed economy in agriculture and in the service sectors are likely. The new leadership may also try to reduce the international commit¬ ments of the Soviet Union. They may decide that there is no point in giving generous economic assis¬ tance to countries that, like Egypt and Somalia, easily

change sides after a change of leadership or for oth¬ er reasons. The new generation of Soviet politicians lived through the exposure of Stalin's crimes and of Khru¬ shchev's errors and mismanagement. They will, therefore, realize that public support for party ob¬ jectives cannot be taken for granted. They will prob¬ ably be more ready to accept criticism and to intro¬ duce the political and economic reforms which are badly needed. The generation born between 1923 and 1935 is much better educated, and its represen¬ tatives have occupied professional positions for much longer. They should, therefore, know that a Communist economy as such does not guarantee rapid economic progress and that the capitalist sys¬ tem can achieve rapid technological innovation and high productivity, even if it is cyclical. This genera¬ tion will not be inclined to dogmatism or fanaticism, qualities usually born of revolution. Because they did not occupy high positions before 1980, they often have no basis for claiming past great successes and for building personality cults. They will try much harder to be successful after promotion. In general they will be technocrats rather than bureaucrats. The government may develop more decision-making power, independent of the party, than it has at pres¬ ent. If the new leaders want to be popular, they will have to introduce some liberal reforms. Repression does not win popular support, and probably no one understands this better than Andropov, former head of the kgb. Economic Problems. This section is purposely headed "economic problems" rather than "the eco¬ nomic crisis." While the economic situation in Po¬ land is critical, and in Romania near critical, it has not reached crisis level in the U.S.S.R. During the last few years the Soviet economy has experienced a decline in the growth rate, but there has been no reduction in total output. Although living standards have not risen, neither have they fallen. The price of food and other essentials has not risen; there has been no budget deficit and no unemployment; and the inflation rate has remained very low. There has been no serious foreign debt problem. Consumers complain about the quality of goods and the lack of diversity, but not about empty shelves. There are shortages of meat and some dairy products, but not of bread and other staple foods. The problems are those of rising expectations and of the dispropor¬ tion between consumer demands and available stocks. However, the disappointment of consumers and especially their complaints about the quality of their diet indicates that they are disillusioned with the official promises and programs reiterated at par¬ ty congresses and in official plans. The older genera¬ tion remembers the deprivation and rationing of 19

food and consumer goods during Stalin's time and is less disturbed about the current problems. But the younger generation, more consumer oriented and westernized, clearly sees the system as being re¬ sponsible for the country's poor economic performance. The promises of economic growth made in the 1950s and 1960s and included in the official party program were very inflated. They seemed to ignore the fact that the Soviet Union has natural limits of economic growth. The targets for the 1958-65 sev¬ en-year plan and for the subsequent five-year plans were unreasonably high, and the plans were not fulfilled. Nevertheless, the growth of industrial out¬ put was substantial, increasing by 270% in the peri¬ od 1965-80. But agricultural production only grew 35% during those 15 years, and it did not increase at all from 1980 to 1982. Because the urban population grew by 30-32%, there was no improvement in the food situation throughout this period. Nonetheless, the situation in rural areas improved substantially. Rural incomes increased because higher procure¬ ment prices were paid for state purchases and be¬ cause the prices paid for food on the private and collective farm markets in towns were very high. The gap between the incomes of urban workers and peasants was markedly reduced. The centralized Soviet economy still gives priority to defense and heavy industry. In the production of some military hardware (e.g., tanks) and in the total output of steel, iron, some metals, and some kinds of machine tools and heavy equipment (locomo¬ tives, electric trains, tractors, steel pipes), the Soviet Union has already surpassed the U.S. The U.S.S.R. produces more oil and gas than does the U.S. and more gold and diamonds. However, the U.S. has the ascendancy in the production of such high-technol¬ ogy equipment as computers and in the production of consumer goods per capita. The construction of housing in "modernized" Soviet villages and in cit¬ ies has been impressive. After food, housing is the second most important indicator of living standards. Between 1965 and 1982 about 1.8 million square metres (19 million square feet) of apartment space was built in the Soviet Union, more than for the whole preceding period from the Revolution to 1964. But the annual growth of gnp declined from an average of 10% in the 1960s to 3.5% at the end of the 1970s and 2.8% in 1982. In the 1970s, however, the Soviet Union im¬ proved its internal domestic situation by radically increasing foreign trade. The deficiencies of agricul¬ tural production were partly compensated for by large purchases of food abroad. This turn of events became possible because of the dramatic increase in the world prices for oil and gas. The U.S.S.R. is the 20

world's largest producer of these commodities. In Stalin's time the Soviet Union, with even worse food problems, had to export grain to obtain hard currency. In the 1970s oil sales became the main source of export revenue. The world prices for other traditional Soviet exports, such as timber, fur, gold, and diamonds, also increased, and the new revenue was used to import significant quantities of food, machinery, and high-technology equipment. Be¬ tween 1970 and 1980 Soviet foreign trade rose from 22 billion to 109 billion rubles a year, and there were no signs that this trend would be changed by U.S. at¬ tempts to restrict further increases in the export of Soviet energy. The overall picture of Soviet industrial develop¬ ment reveals some problems, disproportions, and errors of planning but no signs of real crisis. The So¬ viet bureaucracy has been conservative in using for¬ eign credits. Soviet foreign debts are mostly not re¬ lated to cash payments but to payments in kind by goods and commodities. Other Eastern European countries were much more liberal in their foreign borrowing, and this has put them in a difficult posi¬ tion. It has also created a great deal of financial diffi¬ culty for their Western creditors. (See Feature Arti¬ cle: "You Can't Foreclose a Country": Debtor Nations Worry Bankers.) While a significant num¬ ber of economic problems certainly accumulated in the final stages of Brezhnev's era, they are of a very different kind from those which occurred at the end of Lenin's, Stalin's, or Khrushchev's tenure. The new leadership will not need to make an economic Uturn, but will no doubt make some adjustments and modifications. If Andropov's attempts to be more pragmatic and more efficient and less tolerant of the widespread official corruption are reflected in re¬ forms that will give more encouragement to local initiative in the industrial and agricultural sectors, that in itself would be enough to stimulate the economy. The Future: An Optimistic View. The most urgent priority for the future will remain food. The recently introduced ten-year "food program" has been re¬ ceived by Soviet public opinion, with justified skep¬ ticism, as yet another empty long-term promise. Something must be done and can be done more quickly. If the new government were to open up a free discussion of the problem, this could help to solve it more quickly; an effective food program should be open for democratic discussion, not sim¬ ply introduced by the Politburo. Although Brezhnev tried hard to improve agricultural performance, hav¬ ing no wish to leave the political arena as a possible future scapegoat for food shortages, he did not in¬ troduce basic changes, such as price reforms. In¬ creases in food prices are certainly not popular. But

when food is too cheap, when prices have not changed for decades, much agricultural produce goes to waste. About 20% of cereals are lost in the Soviet Union because of waste, poor storage, and inadequate transport; the proportion of vegetables lost is even higher. Moreover, all the available re¬ sources are not being used for food production. Al¬ though hydroelectric projects, nuclear power sta¬ tions, and other industrial projects have absorbed land, there are still large resources available for indi¬ vidual agricultural exploitation, for small, privately cultivated farms. In the early 1960s, when the gov¬ ernment gave permission to workers and other ur¬ ban dwellers to grow fruit and vegetables on small allotments on unused land outside towns, there was no problem in finding land. There are now some four million allotments, and they are extremely pop¬ ular. This is primitive private agriculture, and it is taxfree. Many thousands of small, productive private farms would cause no harm to the socialist sector of agriculture. Leasing land for private farms and offer¬ ing credits is a project that can be effective immedi¬ ately. Gigantic schemes to irrigate the droughtprone south may be valid but would take many years and hundreds of billions of rubles. The socialist idea that essential services must be free has brought benefits in the form of free health services and free education to many countries. In the U.S.S.R. this idea has led to cheap public trans¬ port and cheap rent. These services are state con¬ trolled and not easy to misuse. But much public housing is poorly built and inadequately maintained because of lack of funds normally provided by rate (local property tax) or rent payments. Without some such provision a deterioration of living conditions in the near future is inevitable. The provision of free gas for cooking and heating water is not really justi¬ fied and leads to the misuse of this important energy source. There is nothing wrong with making people pay for some services. The old Communist dream, reiterated by Khrushchev, that "mature Commu¬ nism" will mean that everything is free, is utopian. The slogan "to each according to his needs" proba¬ bly seemed reasonable 100 years ago, but it is naive when material needs constantly expand. Moreover, people's needs include not only food and consumer goods but also cultural and intellectual values and freedoms. As soon as food and minimal consumer requirements are met, demands for democratic free¬ doms are inevitable. What the Soviet public values most about the countries of the West is not the quality of consumer goods but civil liberties and democratic traditions. The propaganda image of an eternally prosperous West is now very tarnished — recession, unemployment, inflation, and other problems are too visible. But trade with the West

helps to satisfy consumers and makes it more likely that the Soviet people will demand civil liberties. Soviet Foreign Policy. Contrary to many Western predictions, the new Soviet international policy will almost certainly be more restrained. There have al¬ ready been some signs of restraint in the last two years. The Soviet Union has not been actively in¬ volved in the major conflicts of 1981-82, the IraqIran war, Poland, the Argentine-British conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian war. Soviet support for radical rev¬ olutionary regimes has become a costly economic and political burden and will probably be reduced, although the Soviet Union will continue to exploit the situation in the third world indirectly by capital¬ izing on economic and political difficulties. But the U.S.S.R. needs partners, not dependents, and the technocrats understand this much better than the bureaucrats and revolutionaries. The expansion of Comecon will certainly be re¬ stricted. Cuba and Vietnam have been admitted but have not become active participants. Experience has shown that real integration is possible only among equally developed countries. The failure of Poland and Romania to westernize their economies through credits and to increase their independent cooperation with the West has helped the long¬ term Soviet aim of completely integrating the East¬ ern European economies. Although this project is unpopular in Poland, Hungary, and Romania, these countries have little choice since they are unlikely to receive further economic assistance from the West. They will soon have to redirect their industries and standardize their equipment, technological process¬ es, research and development programs, and distri¬ bution of manufactured goods. This will almost cer¬ tainly mean closer political integration. For centuries traditional Russian foreign policy was centred on relations with immediate neigh¬ bours. The Soviet Union has the longest border in the world, more neighbours than any other country, and an economy relatively independent of overseas resources. Thus the improvement of relations with close neighbours will be the most urgent foreign policy priority for the future. China, Iran, and Turkey will mean more to the U.S.S.R. than Mozambique or Nicaragua. The failure of Soviet-U.S. detente may become less important as the chance of Sino-Soviet detente increases—neither country has anything to gain from the continuing conflict. A return to a more rational, traditional foreign pol¬ icy is, certainly, an optimistic prediction for the fu¬ ture. Many chances of better relations with neigh¬ bours have been lost by Soviet leaders in the past because of ideological disputes. One can only hope that the new leadership will not repeat the errors and miscalculations of its predecessors. 21

CALENDAR OF EVENTS OF 1983 JANUARY 1 New Year's Day; Unicorn Hunt¬

guard 1 on March 17 and score on Decem¬ ber 18. The Soviets' only successful launching in 1958 was Sputnik 3.

ers publishes banished words

6 Epiphany; Three Kings' Day 25 Birthday of Robert Burns (1759) 26 Australia Day; Republic Day in

FEBRUARY 2 Candlemas Day; Groundhog Day

India

27 Tenth anniversary of Vietnam cease-fire

31 25th anniversary of the launching

in the U.S.

6 Waitangi Day in New Zealand 11 150th anniversary of Melville

Unicorn Hunters publishes banished words. On New Year's Day, a U.S. or¬ ganization that calls itself the Unicorn Hunters publishes a list of words and phrases that, in its opinion, should be ban¬ ished from the English language. In past years banned words and phrases have in¬ cluded: revenue enhancement, classic, first time ever, patriate, sit on it, past history, exact same, doable, time frame, no prob¬ lem, viable alternative, bottom line, mean¬ ingful, somewhere down the road, any word used to modify the word unique, pre¬ board as used by the airlines, and any sen¬ tence beginning with the words "Surely if we can send a man to the Moon. ..." The organization also calls attention to neolo¬ gisms and creative expressions such as "fruitworthy," which was coined by Chi¬ cago Mayor Jane Byrne in reference to an investigation. Nominations for words to be banned should be sent between November 15 and December 15 to W. T. Rabe, Lake Su¬ perior State College, Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan 49783. Australia Day. In 1786 Arthur Phil¬ lip, a retired officer of the British Roy¬ al Navy, was selected by Lord Sydney, the secretary of state for the Home Department, to head an expedition to New South Wales. Phillip was commissioned to establish a new settlement on the east coast of Austra¬ lia and develop the territory as governor. After the 11 ships under Phillip's command reached their destination, a survey of the coast was made to find a suitable location for the new colony. Phillip made his choice on Jan. 26, 1788, and named the spot Syd¬ ney Cove. Fifty years later the day was offi¬ cially proclaimed a public holiday to commemorate the founding of Australia. r\ 25th anniversary of the launching of D 1 Explorer 1. The launching of this 13.9

kg (30.8 lb) Earth satellite on Jan. 31, 1958, marked the entrance of the United States into the "space race"; it followed by only a few months the successful launch by the U.S.S.R. of Sputnik 1. Explorer 1 was pro¬ pelled into orbit by a Jupiter-C rocket. A Geiger counter placed on board by James A. Van Allen, a U.S. scientist, detected evi¬ dence of an intense belt of particulate radia¬ tion surrounding the Earth. In his honour, the doughnut-shaped zone of charged parti¬ cles was named the Van Allen Belt. The U.S. launched two more satellites in 1958 —Van¬

22

MARCH

Fuller's birth; Empire Day in Japan

of Explorer 1

1

now, began the following day. Legend has it that a certain Olney housewife was so busy frying her pancakes that she forgot about the shriving service in the church. Hearing the church bells ring, she dashed out of the house and ran to the church — fry¬ ing pan still in hand. This so amused her neighbours that the following year they gathered with their frying pans to see who would be the first to make it to the church.

4 50th anniversary of the first inau¬ guration of Franklin D. Roosevelt

12 Lincoln's Birthday; 250th anni¬ versary of the founding of Georgia

14 15 16 20 21

13 250th anniversary of Joseph Priestley's birth

St. Valentine's Day Shrove Tuesday Pancake Race Ash Wednesday Brotherhood Week begins Washington's Birthday official holiday

22 Washington's Birthday 23 350th anniversary of Samuel Pepys's birth

27 Jewish feast of Purim 28 450th anniversary of Michel de Montaigne's birth

rj Groundhog Day in the U.S. According to legend, if the groundhog emerges from his burrow on this date and casts a shadow there will be six more weeks of winter. If, on the other hand, the day is cloudy and no shadow is cast, winter will shortly give way to spring. In most parts of the northern U.S., however, there are al¬ most always at least six more weeks of win¬ ter regardless of what the groundhog sees on this date. The legend of the groundhog was brought to the U.S. by immigrants from Great Britain and Germany, and elab¬ orate tongue-in-cheek observances have sprung up in places such as Sun Prairie, Wis., and Punxsutawney and Quarryville. Pa. February 2 is also the Christian feast of Candlemas. On this day certain Christian denominations celebrate the Presentation of the Christ Child in the Temple and the Purification of the Blessed Virgin Mary. The feast carried greater significance before the Reformation than it does today, but the Roman Catholic, Eastern Orthodox, and Anglican churches continue the observance by blessing all the candles that will be used on their altars during the year.

Z.

Shrove Tuesday Pancake Race. Ac¬ cording to legend, the first Shrove Tuesday pancake race was a solitary event that began accidentally in 1445 at Olney in Buckinghamshire, England. It was custom¬ ary in those days for housewives to fry pan¬ cakes on Shrove Tuesday; church law forbade the use of eggs and cooking fat dur¬ ing the Lenten season, which, then, as

15 Ides of March (Julius Caesar as¬ sassinated, 44 BC)

17 St. Patrick’s Day 20 Vernal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere; autumnal equinox in the Southern Hemisphere (11:39 PM EST)

25 Independence Day in Greece

29 First day of Jewish feast of Passover

4

50th anniversary of the first inaugura¬ tion of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Having won the election of 1932 over Republican incumbent Herbert Hoover by 22,822,000 to 15,762,000 popular votes, Franklin Dela¬ no Roosevelt was inaugurated 32nd presi¬ dent of the United States on this date in 1933. Roosevelt promptly proposed and got Congress to pass a sweeping program of re¬ covery and reform which he called the New Deal. Among its better known components were the Agricultural Adjustment Act, the National Industrial Recovery Act, the Ten¬ nessee Valley Authority, legislation regu¬ lating the issuance and sale of securities, a broad reform of the nation's banking struc¬ ture, soil conservation legislation, and the Social Security Act. Reelected three times, Roosevelt served a total of 12 years and 39 days. 250th anniversary of Joseph Priest¬ ley's birth. Born at Birstall Fieldhead, near Leeds, England, on March 13, 1733, Joseph Priestley attracted attention early in life when he disavowed his strict Calvinist upbringing and at the age of 22 became a freethinking Presbyterian minis¬ ter. He was later ordained a Dissenting minister and had charge of a congregation for several years, but he is best known for his contributions to the chemistry of gases. Priestley, with the encouragement of Ben¬ jamin Franklin, published his first major scientific work, The History and Present State of Electricity, in 1767. In 1774, with the aid of a newly acquired burning glass, he ob¬ tained a new gas from mercuric oxide. A short time later his experiments were re¬ peated by the French chemist Antoine-Laurent Lavoisier, who named the new gas

oxygen. Priestley also discovered several gases besides oxygen, including ammonia, nitrogen, nitrous oxide, hydrogen chlo¬ ride, and sulfur dioxide. Some of his other experiments resulted in significant contri¬ butions in the fields of plant respiration and photosynthesis.

APRIL 1 April Fools' Day; Good Friday 3 Easter Sunday; 200th anniversary of Washington Irving's birth

4 Major league baseball season opens in the U.S.

9 Bataan Day in the Philippines 11 Academy Awards presentations 14 Pan American Day 15 Income taxes due in United States 18 Boston Marathon 24 Daylight saving time begins at 2 AM

29 Arbor Day in the U.S.; Emperor's birthday in Japan

most trees. Nebraska declared Arbor Day a legal holiday in 1885, setting it on April 22, the anniversary of Morton's birth. By 1888, Nebraskans had planted some 350 million trees. Morton went on to become secretary of agriculture under Pres. Grover Cleve¬ land, as well as president of the American Forestry Association.

MAY 1 May Day 5 Cinco de Mayo 7 Kentucky Derby

8 Easter in Orthodox churches; Mother's Day in the U.S.; VE Day (1945); World Red Cross Day

14 National Windmill Day in The Netherlands

21 The Preakness Stakes 24 100th anniversary of the dedica¬ tion of the Brooklyn Bridge

26 250th anniversary of John Kay's patent on the flying shuttle

29 30th anniversary of Sir Edmund

3

200th anniversary of Washington Ir¬ ving's birth. Born on April 3, 1783, in New York City, Washington Irving was the youngest of 11 children reared by a wealthy Presbyterian merchant and his Anglican wife. Though he lived to be 76, Ir¬ ving spent much of his life in frail health, a condition that may have enhanced his liter¬ ary attainments. Because of his physical frailties he spent much of his time travel¬ ing, rather than suffering the rigours of for¬ mal education and family business concerns (although he practiced law for a time and tended briefly to family business affairs in Liverpool). Irving's first venture into literary waters was a series of whimsi¬ cally satirical essays published in the Morn¬ ing Chronicle, a newspaper owned by his brother Peter. He won his greatest literary acclaim for The Sketch Book of Geoffrey Cray¬ on, Gent, a collection of some 30-odd pieces including "The Legend of Sleepy Hollow" and "Rip Van Winkle." After spending 17 years away from New York —most of them in Europe —Irving returned in 1832 and set¬ tled down at "Sunnyside," his home on the Hudson River. There he devoted himself chiefly to biography, producing works such as Oliver Goldsmith (1849) and five vol¬ umes on the life of George Washington (1855-59). Irving died on Nov. 28, 1859. r»Q Arbor Day in the U.S. Widely but Zc7 not universally observed. Arbor Day encourages the planting of trees, an idea that took root largely through the efforts of J. Sterling Morton. A prominent Nebraska newspaper editor and politician during the second half of the 19th century, Morton saw a need for trees on the Nebraska plain and began planting them in earnest some¬ time after moving there from Michigan in 1854. As a member of the state board of agriculture Morton proposed April 10, 1872, as the first Arbor Day, with prizes to be awarded to both the individual and the county agricultural society that planted the

Hillary's ascent of Mt. Everest; Indianapolis 500 auto race

30 Memorial Day in the U.S.

100th anniversary of the Brook¬ lyn Bridge. Probably no one will ever know how many times the Brooklyn Bridge has been sold by the unscrupulous to the unwary. But before the pranks and jokes began, the famous bridge had to be built and dedicated, a process beset with consid¬ erable adversity. The bridge was designed by John Augustus Roebling. While he was working on the bridge a ferryboat crushed his foot in a piling, and he died of a tetanus infection in 1869. In seeing the project through to completion, Roebling's son. Col. Washington Augustus Roebling, con¬ tracted caisson disease (the bends). Suffer¬ ing from paralysis and partial blindness, he was forced to watch the dedication ceremo¬ nies from his house on Columbia Heights. When the 486-m (1,595-ft) span opened on May 24, 1883, 12 people were trampled to death in the excitement. At the time, Brook¬ lyn and New York were the two largest cit¬ ies in the U.S. 250th anniversary of John Kay's pat¬ ent on the flying shuttle. On this date in 1733 John Kay, an English machin¬ ist and engineer, received a patent for a "New Engine or Machine for Opening and Dressing Wool." Weavers were quick to adopt the new invention, but organized a protective club to avoid paying a royalty to Kay. Kay spent most of his money in unsuc¬ cessful litigation to protect his patent. His later years are obscure. He is believed to have died in France sometime after 1764. 30th anniversary of Sir Edmund Hil¬ lary's ascent of Mt. Everest. On this date in 1953 Sir Edmund Hillary and Ten¬ zing Norgay, a Sherpa guide, reached the summit of Mt. Everest in Nepal, the highest

mountain in the world. The two men made their final assault on the mountain from a tent at 8,500 m (27,900 ft) on the southeast¬ ern ridge and reached the 8,848-m (29,028ft) summit at 11:30 am.

JUNE 5 200th anniversary of the first bal¬ loon flight; 100th anniversary of John Maynard Keynes's birth

6 Anniversary of D-Day (1944) 11 Kamehameha Day in Hawaii 12 Queen's "official'' birthday in Great Britain; Philippine Inde¬ pendence Day; First day of Ramadan

15 Magna Carta Day (1215) 19 Father's Day in the U.S. 21 Summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere; winter solstice in the Southern Hemisphere (7:09 PM EDST)

25 Partial eclipse of the Moon 26 500th anniversary, Richard III becomes king of England

5 200th anniversary of the first balloon flight. When three men from Albu¬ querque, N.M., made the first successful manned balloon flight across the Atlantic Ocean in 1978, they were carrying on a bal¬ looning tradition that had begun in France two centuries earlier. In 1782 the Montgol¬ fier brothers, Joseph-Michel and JacquesEtienne, discovered that heated air collected inside a large lightweight bag caused the bag to rise into the air. The brothers made their first public demonstra¬ tion of this discovery on June 5, 1783, from the marketplace of their hometown, Annonay, France. Using heat generated from a fire they had built of wool and straw, they filled a bag with warm air, then watched as it rose to a height of about 1,800 m (6,000 ft). It remained at that altitude for about ten minutes, then settled to the ground about 2.5 km (1.5 mi) away. On September 19 of the same year the Montgolfier brothers launched a larger balloon at Versailles, this time bearing aloft a sheep, a rooster, and a duck. The first manned flight took place over Paris on Nov. 21, 1783. With Pilatre de Rozier and the Marquis Francois Laurent d'Arlandes aboard, the balloon traveled al¬ most 9 km (about 5.5 mi) and stayed aloft about 25 minutes. 500th anniversary, Richard III be¬ comes king of England. Controversy continues to swirl around Richard III. Was he a hunchbacked monster who ordered the murder of his two nephews in order to pro¬ tect his claim to the crown, or was he a humane and benevolent ruler? Although Richard has long been viewed as a villain, some recent investigations have cast doubt on that assessment. The Richard III Society, organized in 1924, claims that the jaun¬ diced view of Richard was the product of a vicious Tudor propaganda campaign de-

23

signed to bolster the claims of Henry VII to the crown. The society claims further that the characterization of Richard as a mur¬ derer was unwittingly strengthened by William Shakespeare in his play Richard Ill. Though there is no certain evidence that Richard ordered his nephews killed, nei¬ ther was he able to produce them after hav¬ ing lodged them in the Tower of London. Richard was born on Oct. 2, 1452, began his rule on June 26, 1483, was formally crowned on July 6, 1483, and died in battle on Aug. 22, 1485.

JULY 1 Dominion Day in Canada 3 100th anniversary of Franz Kaf¬ ka's birth

4 Independence Day in the U.S. 8 Calgary Stampede begins 10 Tenth anniversary of Bahamian Independence

12 14 23 24

Id al-Fitr, Muslim feast day Bastille Day in France National Day in Egypt 200th anniversary of Simon Boli¬ var's birth

28 50th anniversary of the first sing¬ ing telegram

100th anniversary of Franz Kafka's birth. Kafka was born on July 3, 1883, in Prague (then the capital of Bohemia), of German-speaking parents. Though he died on June 3, 1924, one month short of his 41st birthday, he is recognized today as one of the great writers of modern times. Few in his own time believed that he would ever attain such stature. Even Kafka himself doubted his talents. Before he died he or¬ dered his literary executor, Max Brod, to destroy all his manuscripts. But Brod dis¬ obeyed and published several of Kafka's best-known works after his death. Among these are Amerika, The Trial, and The Castle. Tenth anniversary of Bahamian Inde¬ pendence. On July 10, 1973, a new constitution went into force in The Baha¬ mas, and the islands became independent of Great Britain. The government now con¬ sists of a two-house parliament, a ministe¬ rial Cabinet headed by the prime minister, and an independent judiciary. At the same time the islands belong to the Common¬ wealth with a governor-general appointed by Queen Elizabeth II. The islands were discovered by Columbus on Oct. 12, 1492. The first English inhabitants came in 1648. Since the early 18th century, apart from brief interruptions caused by foreign inva¬ sions, the government has functioned as a parliamentary democracy. n a 200th anniversary of Sim6n Bolivar's ^_~r birth. The great South American sol¬ dier-statesman was born on this date in 1783 to an aristocratic family in Caracas, Venezuela. While in Europe, Bolivar vowed to liberate South America from Spanish control. In 1807 he returned to Venezuela from Europe and quickly rose to

24

prominence in the independence move¬ ment. As commander of an expeditionary force, he vanquished the Spanish in six pitched battles and regained control of Ca¬ racas. On Aug. 6, 1813, he entered the city, received the title of Liberator, and became dictator. Bolivar eventually succeeded in liberating Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia from Spanish control, despite many setbacks along the way. These arose from internal dissension, nationalistic conflicts, and the grandiose designs and personality of Bolivar himself. He was forced into exile twice and narrowly escaped assassination on another occasion. A few days before his death on Dec. 17, 1830, he wrote, "My last wishes are for the happiness of my country. If my death can contribute anything to¬ ward the reconciliation of the parties or the unification of the country, I shall go to my grave in peace." 50th anniversary of the first singing telegram. In 1933 Western Union, like many other companies in that depres¬ sion year, faced a dim economic picture. One of those trying to think of a way to revive the company's sagging fortunes was George Osling, a young public relations man who worked for the company at its headquarters in New York. Osling hit upon the idea of a singing telegram and instruct¬ ed his secretary to find out about any prom¬ inent people who were having birthdays. She came up with the name of Rudy Vallee, then appearing at New York's famed Latin Quarter. Osling got Vallee's phone number at the Astor Hotel, called it, then handed the phone to another young Western Union employee named Lucille Lipps. Lipps in¬ formed Vallee that she had a message for him and proceeded to sing a lusty rendition of "Happy Birthday to You."

AUGUST 2 U.S. Declaration of Independence signed

3 25th anniversary of the first voy¬ age beneath the North Pole

5 400th anniversary of the founding of the first English colony in North America

6 9 15 20

Hiroshima Peace Day Moment of silence in Nagasaki Independence Day in India 150th anniversary of Benjamin Harrison's birth

26 100th anniversary of the eruption of Krakatoa; U.S. women granted suffrage

29 Liberation Day in Hong Kong

25th anniversary of the first voy¬ age beneath the North Pole. At precise¬ ly 11:15 pm Eastern Daylight Saving Time on this date in 1958, the uss "Nautilus," the world's first nuclear-powered submarine, also became the first ship ever to pass be¬ neath the North Pole. The "Nautilus" had submerged two days earlier off the north¬ ern coast of Alaska near Point Barrow. It

resurfaced August 5 in the Arctic Ocean between Greenland and Spitsbergen, Nor¬ way. During the 96 hours that the "Nauti¬ lus" was submerged, it covered a distance of 3,390 km (1,830 nautical miles) and passed beneath an ice pack that ranged in thickness from 3 to 24 m (10 to 80 ft). The sub traveled at approximately 120 m (400 ft) beneath the surface. In recognition of their accomplishment. Pres. Dwight D. Eisen¬ hower awarded the Legion of Merit to Wil¬ liam R. Anderson, the sub's commander, and the Presidential Unit Citation to the officers and men. 150th anniversary of Benjamin Har¬ rison's birth. There is no record that Benjamin Harrison ever thought about growing up to be president when he was a boy, but he certainly had a good head start on his contemporaries. His great-grand¬ father was a governor of Virginia and a signer of the Declaration of Independence; his grandfather was the ninth president of the United States; and his father served two terms in the U.S. House of Representatives. Harrison made two unsuccessful attempts to become governor of Indiana. In 1872 he failed to gain the nomination; in 1876 he was nominated but failed to win the elec¬ tion. His political fortunes took a turn for the better, however, in 1881 when the Indi¬ ana legislature elected him to serve in the U.S. Senate. As a U.S. senator, Harrison pushed hard for expansion into the territo¬ ries and for the admission of new states. Then in 1888 he won the Republican presi¬ dential nomination and went on to beat Grover Cleveland in the general election. (Harrison lost the popular vote but received 233 electoral votes to Cleveland's 168.) As president, Harrison continued to push for the admission of new states, and during his presidency six joined the union: North Da¬ kota, South Dakota, Montana, Washing¬ ton, Idaho, and Wyoming. Other accomplishments of his administration in¬ cluded the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, the Sherman Silver Purchase Act, the McKin¬ ley Tariff Act, a new veterans' pension bill, and legislation strengthening the Army and Navy. In the election of 1892 Harrison ran against Cleveland once again, but this time he lost. He returned to his law practice and died of pneumonia on March 13, 1901. 100th anniversary of the eruption of Krakatoa. One of the greatest volca¬ nic eruptions ever witnessed by man began on this date in 1883 on the islet of Krakatoa between Java and Sumatra. The eruption took place as a series of explosions. The first occurred at 1 pm on August 26; the climax came at 10 am on the 27th. The explosions could be heard four hours later as far away as Rodrigues Island, nearly 4,800 km (3,000 mi) to the southwest. The enormous dis¬ charge threw nearly 21 cu km (5 cu mi) of rock fragments into the air, and ash blan¬ keted an area of over 800,000 sq km (300,000 sq mi). On several islands nearby, the ash accumulated to a depth of 60 m (200 ft). Eighty kilometres (50 mi) away there was total darkness for two and one-half days. The most disastrous consequence of the eruption, however, was a series of tidal waves. The one that occurred just after the main explosion reached a height of 35 m (120 ft) and took the lives of 36,000 people on the islands of Java and Sumatra.

SEPTEMBER 3 200th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris

5 8 17 23

Labor Day in the U.S. Rosh Hashana begins Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur Autumnal equinox in the North¬ ern Hemisphere; vernal equinox in the Southern Hemisphere (9:42 AM EST)

28 Birthday of Confucius

200th anniversary of the Treaty of Par¬ is. The long and painful course of the American Revolution formally ended on Sept. 3, 1783, with the signing of the Treaty of Paris. Under its terms Britain recognized the independence of the United States and acknowledged U.S. rights over all the terri¬ tory from the colonies to the Mississippi River and from Florida to the Great Lakes. The U.S. also was given access to the New¬ foundland fisheries. In return, provisions were inserted in the treaty calling for pay¬ ment of American private debts to British citizens, fair treatment of Loyalists, and British access to the Mississippi River. Rosh Hashana begins. This is the Jew¬ ish New Year of 5744 and the beginning of a ten-day penitential period that con¬ cludes with Yom Kippur, the Day of Atone¬ ment. The observation begins at sundown with the blowing of the shofar (ram's-horn trumpet) in the synagogue. During the ten days Jews are expected to pray, meditate, examine their consciences, and repent.

stemming from the Watergate investiga¬ tion. One of the dramatic events that led to Nixon's resignation was the "Saturday night massacre" of Oct. 20, 1973. On that night Nixon ordered the firing of special Watergate prosecutor Archibald Cox be¬ cause of Cox's insistence that Nixon turn over tapes recording conversations be¬ tween Nixon and his aides. Attorney Gen¬ eral Elliot Richardson submitted his resignation rather than fire Cox, and when Deputy Attorney General William D. Ruckelshouse also refused to dismiss the special prosecutor, Nixon fired him. Cox was final¬ ly discharged by the solicitor general. From that time demands for Nixon's impeach¬ ment increased in both number and inten¬ sity until his resignation. The Watergate investigation sought to discover whether Nixon had known about the plan to break into the national headquarters of the Demo¬ cratic Party (located in Washington's Wa¬ tergate complex) and whether he had later taken part in a conspiracy to conceal his role in a cover-up of the break-in plans.

of China (1949)

4 100th anniversary of the Orient Express

10 Thanksgiving Day in Canada; Columbus Day in the U.S,

20 Tenth anniversary of the "Satur¬ day night massacre"

24 United Nations Day 30 Reformation Sunday; Standard time resumes at 2 am

31 Halloween

a 100th anniversary of the Orient Express. There were no transcontinental trains in Europe until this date in 1883 when the Orient Express pulled out of the Gare de l'Est in Paris, bound for the Bulgar¬ ian border south of Bucharest. There the passengers were ferried across the Danube. On the other side they took another train to Varna where they boarded a ship to Constantinople.

4

r\r\ Tenth anniversary of the “Saturday Z\j night massacre." On Aug. 9, 1974, Richard M. Nixon resigned as president of the United States to avoid facing the possi¬ ble result of impeachment proceedings

DECEMBER 1 First day of Jewish feast of Hanukka

4 200th anniversary — Washington took leave of his officers

NOVEMBER 7 Anniversary of the Bolshevik

10 Human Rights Day 17 Wright brothers' first flight (1903)

Revolution

10 500th anniversary of Martin Lu¬

22 Winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere; summer solstice in the Southern Hemisphere (5:30

ther's birth

11 Veterans Day in the U.S. 13 150th anniversary of Edwin Booth's birth

22 20th anniversary of the assassina¬ tion of Pres. John F. Kennedy

24 Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. 27 First Sunday in Advent

OCTOBER 1 Founding of the People's Republic

150th anniversary of Edwin Booth's birth. The noted American tragedian was born on a farm near Belair, Md., on Nov. 13, 1833, and died on June 7, 1893. Booth made his acting debut at the Boston Museum on Sept. 10, 1849, playing the role of Tressel to his father's Richard III. Two years later at the National Theatre in New York City Booth's father refused to appear as Richard III, and the 17-year-old Edwin took his place. He went on to become one of the best-known actors of his time, excel¬ ling—especially in later life —in roles such as Hamlet, King Lear, Macbeth, Iago, Othello, Brutus, Shylock, and Richard III. Edwin Booth was the older brother of actor John Wilkes Booth, the man who assassi¬ nated Pres. Abraham Lincoln.

500th anniversary of Martin Luther's birth. The great German religious re¬ former was born at Eisleben in Thuringian Saxony (Germany) on this date in 1483. He joined the eremitical order of St. Augustine in 1505 and professed his vows as a monk the following year. In 1507 he was ordained priest. Luther became increasingly dis¬ tressed with certain practices of the Roman Catholic Church under Pope Leo X. The practice that angered him the most was the selling of indulgences. According to church doctrine, when a priest granted one of the faithful an indulgence, that person's sins were forgiven by God. As an ordained priest and a teacher of philosophy and the¬ ology at the University of Wittenberg, Lu¬ ther objected to the widespread practice of offering indulgences for sale. Luther ex¬ pressed his objections in the form of the famous Ninety-five Theses, which he nailed to the door of All Saints Church in Wittenberg on Oct. 31, 1517. The rebellious young priest expected the people of Witten¬ berg to oppose him; instead they gave him their enthusiastic support. It was not long before the Ninety-five Theses were being read all over Germany, helping to incite the Protestant Reformation. Luther was brand¬ ed a heretic and excommunicated, but with the help of powerful German princes he be¬ came the Reformation's acknowledged leader.

AM EST)

25 Christmas Day

4

200th anniversary —Washington took leave of his officers. When the last British troops had set sail from New York Harbor, George Washington, the com¬ mander in chief of the Continental Army, gathered his officers together to say good¬ bye. On Dec. 4, 1783, in Fraunces Tavern in lower Manhattan, Washington spoke brief¬ ly: "With a heart full of gratitude, I now take leave of you. I most devoutly wish that your later days may be as prosperous and happy as your former ones have been glori¬ ous and honorable." When the men had drunk their wine, Washington continued, "I cannot come to each of you, but shall feel obliged if each of you will come and take me by the hand." According to witnesses Washington and many of his officers were overcome by emotion. When it was over, Washington boarded a barge for Paulus Hook (now in Jersey City), where a small cavalcade waited to escort him to Philadel¬ phia and then to Annapolis, Md., where Congress was in session. He then returned to his beloved Mount Vernon. Winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere. This is the first day of winter, or the exact time that the Sun ap¬ pears to reach its southernmost point below the celestial equator and begins moving northward again. The apparent movement of the Sun from south to north is a result of the changing declination of the Earth's axis as the Earth orbits the Sun. The winter sol¬ stice always occurs on or about December 21. In 1983 it will occur at precisely 5:30 am. Eastern Standard Time, on December 22. In the Southern Hemisphere it is the first day of summer.

25

CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS OF 1982 JANUARY 3

South Korea names new prime minis¬ ter and lifts curfew South Korean Pres. Chun Doo Hwan ap¬ pointed Yoo Chang Soon, an economics expert, to be prime minister in place of Nam Duck Woo. He also replaced five other members of his Cabinet. The changes, according to a government spokesman, were prompted by a desire to speed up implementation of the nation's five-year economic development plan. Two days later the government declared an end to the four-hour nighttime curfew that had been in effect nationwide for 36 years, since the end of World War II. The curfew, however, remained in effect in areas bordering North Korea.

4

11

12

7

16

13

Ghana to be ruled by council

Stephen named governor-general of Australia

21

Spain replaces military chiefs

U.K. miners reject call to strike About 55% of Britain's nearly 250,000 coal miners, it was announced, had re¬ jected the recommendation of their presi¬ dent-elect by voting to accept a 9.3% wage increase rather than strike. Outgoing president Joe Gormley had defied the union executive by urging the miners to accept management's offer.

Sir Ninian Martin Stephen was named to be the next governor-general of Australia. He would replace Sir Zelman Cowen, who was scheduled to retire in July. The announcement ended speculation that Britain's Prince Charles might be given the post.

15

Vatican and U.K. establish full diplo¬ matic relations Great Britain and the Vatican established full diplomatic relations after a period of four and a half centuries of estrangement. Relations between Britain and the Vati¬ can had been severed when King Henry VIII became head of the Church of En¬ gland. Sir Mark Evelyn Heath, who had headed Britain's Vatican legation, was named U.K. ambassador. His counter¬ part, Msgr. Bruno Heim, who had been serving as the Vatican's apostolic delegate to Britain, was raised to the rank of apos¬ tolic nuncio.

The West African republic of Ghana, ac¬ cording to an announcement, would be ruled by a seven-man Provisional Nation¬ al Defense Council headed by Jerry J. Rawlings. The former flight lieutenant overthrew Pres. Hilla Limann's govern¬ ment on Dec. 31, 1981.

Reagan backs draft registration Presidential counselor Edwin Meese III read a statement by U.S. Pres. Ronald Reagan that reversed his preelection stand on the registration of 18-year-old males for a possible future military draft. Reagan indicated that his continuation of registration did not mean he intended to draft young men into military service. He

Taiwan to get U.S. fighters The Reagan administration announced that the Chinese Nationalist government on Taiwan would not be given the ad¬ vanced fighter aircraft it had requested because "no military need for such air¬ craft exists." The U.S., however, said the Nationalists could continue to co-produce the U.S. aircraft that currently constituted the mainstay of its air force. The U.S. deci¬ sion to continue to aid Taiwan was vigor¬ ously denounced by the People's Republic of China.

European Community responds to Polish crisis The foreign ministers of the European Community (EC), during a special ses¬ sion in Brussels, denounced the imposi¬ tion of martial law in Poland but did not endorse the economic sanctions imposed against both Poland and the U.S.S.R. by the U.S. The EC called for an end to mar¬ tial law and the release of Polish workers who had been arrested.The EC also urged Polish authorities to resume a dialogue with officials of the Roman Catholic Church and Solidarity, the national fed¬ eration of labour unions.

military posts: the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and the chiefs of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. Their predecessors had all been summarily retired the previ¬ ous day. By way of explanation, the De¬ fense Ministry said it seemed appropriate to make the changes before Spain began negotiating its entry into nato. There was also speculation that the shake-up was related to the upcoming court-martial of officers who were allegedly involved in the abortive attempt to overthrow the government on Feb. 23, 1981.

noted, however, that preregistration would speed up mobilization by as much as six weeks in the event that some future threat to U.S. security required a military response.

24

The Spanish government identified the four men who would hold the nation's top

Mubarak invites Soviet help Egypt announced that it had invited 66 Soviet experts to assist on a number of major industrial projects. The move re¬ versed the policy of the late president An¬ war as-Sadat, who in September 1981 ordered the Soviet ambassador and other Soviet diplomats out of the country. Some 1,500 Soviet technicians were also ex¬ pelled. All were accused of fostering reli¬ gious turmoil in Egypt. Pres. Hosni Mubarak explained that Egypt was now committed to a policy of nonalignment. This was generally interpreted to mean that Egypt would try to improve relations with other Arab nations and with the So¬ viet Union.

Pres. Ronald Reagan deliv¬ ered his first state of the union message to the U.S. Congress on January 26. He urged support for supplyside economics and a trans¬ fer of federal social programs to the states.

26

Reagan proposes "new federalism" in his state of the union message In his first state of the union message to the U.S. Congress, President Reagan reaf¬ firmed his support for supply-side eco¬ nomics and proposed a massive but

26

Chronology FEBRUARY gradual shift of federal social programs to the states. In exchange, the federal gov¬ ernment would assume responsibility for Medicaid payments and would temporar¬ ily distribute revenues to the states from a $28 billion "trust fund." Reagan called the bold concept "new federalism." The cost of the trade-off between the federal gov¬ ernment and the states was about equal and was estimated at $47 billion. By 1988, after studying and evaluating local needs, states would be free to decide the fate of individual programs they had taken over.

Haig and Gromyko meet in Geneva U.S. Secretary of State Alexander Haig and Soviet Foreign Minister Andrey Gro¬ myko met for eight hours in Geneva to review issues affecting relations between their two countries. Despite Gromyko's warning the previous day that he would not discuss the situation in Poland, the two, according to Haig, did in fact point¬ edly disagree on Poland. Gromyko insist¬ ed that the imposition of martial law was an internal matter to be handled by Polish authorities; Haig declared that the mili¬ tary crackdown dealt a serious blow to U.S.-Soviet relations. The U.S. had earlier accused the U.S.S.R. of pressuring Po¬ land's leaders to use force to keep the na¬ tion under control.

ries of the state." The new leader also praised the military for sanctioning elec¬ tions and recalled that during its 161 years of existence, Honduras had had 126 gov¬ ernments and 385 armed rebellions.

Koivisto chosen Finnish president

27 Salvadoran rebels destroy air force -planes at government base Salvadoran guerrillas staged a highly suc¬ cessful attack on the government's Ilopango air base outside San Salvador. According to reports, five or six fighter planes were destroyed as were three C-47 transports, a trainer aircraft, and 5 of the 14 helicopters loaned to El Salvador by the U.S. Much of the damage was believed to have been inflicted by saboteurs who went into action as artillery shells were being fired into the base. On February 4 the Reagan administration began replac¬ ing helicopters that had been destroyed or severely damaged.

Mauno Koivisto was elected president of Finland with 167 of the 301 votes cast by members of the electoral college. Koivisto had vacated the prime ministership on Sept. 11, 1981, to become acting president during the serious illness of Pres. Urho Kekkonen. After 25 years in office, Kekkonen formally resigned on Oct. 27, 1981.

28

30 Hundreds arrested during clashes in Poland According to a Warsaw radio report, more than 200 people were arrested in Gdansk after violent clashes with Polish police. The local military council respond¬ ed by tightening curfew restrictions and suspending all sports activities and public entertainment. In other parts of the coun¬ try, however, an easing of martial law was still expected to take effect on Febru¬ ary 10. No official explanation was given for the trouble in Gdansk, which the In¬ ternal Affairs Ministry said was "pro¬ voked by propaganda activities of the U.S. administration," but some observers sus¬ pected the unrest was related to food prices, which were scheduled to rise by several hundred percent on February 1.

General Dozier rescued in Italy U.S. Brig. Gen. James L. Dozier was res¬ cued from his Red Brigades kidnappers when Italian antiterrorist forces carried out a carefully planned raid on an apart¬ ment in Padua. Three men and two wom¬ en were captured. Dozier was described as tired but otherwise in good health after his 42 days of captivity.

Honduras ends military rule Honduras ended nine years of military rule with the installation of Roberto Suazo Cordova as president. During his inaugural address, Suazo pledged that of¬ ficials of his administration would be "servants of the people and not beneficia¬

cover the $71 million in principal and in¬ terest that Poland was unable to pay on schedule. The Reagan administration chose to bypass the normal requirement that the banks first declare Poland in de¬ fault on the loans, which had been guar¬ anteed by the U.S. government. The administration's decision was controver¬ sial, but those who defended it noted that, without a formal declaration of de¬ fault, Poland remained responsible for eventual repayment of the debts.

29

U.S. covers Poland's debts with com¬ mercial banks The U.S. government notified nine of the nation's commercial banks that it would

FEBRUARY 2

Uprising reported in Hamah, Syria An antigovernment rebellion erupted in Hamah, Syria, a stronghold of the out¬ lawed fundamentalist Muslim Brother¬ hood. According to unconfirmed sources, the uprising followed on the heels of a disastrous attempt by government forces

to raid a Muslim Brotherhood hideout. Though the government denied reports of a conflict for about two weeks, it then announced that the main road through Hamah had been reopened. Numerous ca¬ sualties on both sides and heavy damage in the city's centre were said to have resulted.

3

Mubarak underscores Palestinian is¬ sue during U.S. visit Egyptian Pres. Hosni Mubarak declared, during welcoming ceremonies in Wash¬ ington, D.C., that the "Palestinian prob¬ lem" was the key to peace and stability in the Middle East. He also asserted that

27

Chronology FEBRUARY

6

Syria discounts rumours of coup Syrian Foreign Minister Abdul-Halim Khaddam, according to published re¬ ports, categorically denied that a military coup against Pres. Hafez al-Assad had been averted when the conspirators tried to recruit a loyal officer. Khaddam further declared that "Syria is the most stable country in the region," having the sup¬ port of the common people and the back¬ ing of the military.

7

9

Marcos's son-in-law rescued Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos's sonin-law, Tommy Manotoc, was reported to

Egypt releases 1,000 prisoners An Egyptian court ordered the release of 1,054 political prisoners after suspending former president Anwar as-Sadat's emer¬ gency order that resulted in the arrests of 1,500 persons in September 1981. The court also lifted bans on a Muslim Broth¬ erhood monthly magazine and on a week¬ ly newspaper published by the opposition Socialist Labour Party.

New premier named in Kampuchea The Kampuchean government, under the domination of Vietnam, appointed Chan Sy president of the Council of Ministers, in effect, the nation's premier. Chan Sy had been acting premier since December 1981 when Pen Sovan was removed from office "for reasons of health." According to unverifiable reports. Pen Sovan was in reality under house arrest.

Costa Rica chooses president Luis Alberto Monge Alvarez was chosen president of Costa Rica in an election that also gave his National Liberation Party a substantial majority in the Legislative As¬ sembly. Monge's victory came at a time when Costa Rica was in the midst of an acute economic crisis and its citizens were fearful they might soon experience the same type of violence that extremist groups had instigated in other Central American countries.

The African leaders also called on Chad to accept a cease-fire with the rebel forces of Hissen Habre, who was seeking to over¬ throw the government of Pres. Goukouni Oueddei. Chad was also directed to draft a new constitution and hold new presiden¬ tial and legislative elections. To give teeth to their demands, the leaders threatened to withdraw the oau peacekeeping force from Chad by June 30 if there were no cease-fire or negotiations.

have been rescued from leftist guerrillas the previous day. Manotoc, who had mysteriously disappeared 41 days earlier, was brought back to Manila by a unit of the special forces. The amateur golfer and professional basketball coach had angered the president and his wife by secretly marrying their daughter, Imee, on Dec. 4, 1981, in Virginia. In an interview after his release, Manotoc read a statement ex¬ pressing regrets that his family had ac¬ cused the president of involvement in his abduction. Manotoc was reportedly found in a mountainous area east of Manila, where the Maoist New People's Army was known to operate.

"both sides [Israelis and Palestinians] have an inherent right to exist and func¬ tion as a national unity." Addressing President Reagan directly, Mubarak said, . . the Palestinians need your help and understanding." The Egyptian leader also urged the U.S. to begin discussions with the Palestinians, even though they still refused to concede Israel's right to exist. Later in his visit, Mubarak reiterated his continuing commitment to the Camp Da¬ vid accords.

11

13

Five face investigation in El Salvador for murdering churchwomen A civil court judge in El Salvador ordered five former national guardsmen to be held for further investigation in the murders of three Roman Catholic nuns and a laywoman co-worker in December 1980. The news was gratifying to U.S. officials be¬ cause it seemed at times that no serious ef¬ fort was being made to apprehend those responsible. Physical evidence in the case included a fingerprint on the women's burned-out van and a shell casing. On February 11 Pres. Jose Napoleon Duarte flatly declared "these men are guilty."

African leaders debate Chad and Western Sahara Eleven African leaders, all members of the Organization of African Unity (oau), ended a special session in Kenya called to discuss the problems of peace in the West¬ ern Sahara and Chad. Morocco continued to refuse to negotiate directly with the Polisario Front, which was contesting Morocco's right to Western Sahara (for¬ mer Spanish Sahara). Morocco insisted in¬ stead that Algeria be party to the peace negotiations because it was the principal supplier of arms to the Polisario Front.

Report coup thwarted in Portugal Portugal's interior minister, speaking on television, implied that a Communist-led union federation had tried to overthrow the government the previous day while the country was paralyzed by a general strike organized by the union. The union, however, denied there was any connec¬ tion between the organizers of the strike and the men who were arrested that day in a car loaded with guns, explosives, and recordings calling for a popular uprising.

Egyptian Pres. Hosni Mubarak (left) was greeted by U.S. Pres. Ronald Reagan when Mubarak visited Washington. Mubarak pleaded with Reagan to aid the cause of the Palestinians.

17

Mugabe drops Nkomo from Cabinet Robert Mugabe, prime minister of Zim¬ babwe, relieved Joshua Nkomo of his Cabinet post after accusing him of plan¬ ning to take over the government. Mu¬ gabe had claimed that a sizable cache of arms —including rifles, mines, mortars, and antiaircraft weapons —had been lo¬ cated on property owned by the Zimba¬ bwe African People's Union (zapu), an organization founded and still headed by Nkomo. Though Mugabe and Nkomo had long been fierce political rivals, their re¬ spective groups formed part of the Patriot¬ ic Front coalition that contested white rule in Rhodesia before it achieved inde¬ pendence as Zimbabwe. When Mugabe won Zimbabwe's first election in 1980, he sought to placate Nkomo by giving him

J. L. ATLAN—SYGMA

28

Chronology FEBRUARY and other members of his party a role in government.

18

MIDDLETON—SIPA PRESS/BLACK STAR

Council to replace Khomeini The Iranian government announced that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini would eventually be replaced by a three-, four-, or five-man elected council. Concurrent reports that Khomeini was seriously ill were denied by the government as “impe¬ rialist and Zionist lies."

19

Pope ends visit to Africa Pope John Paul II ended an eight-day pas¬ toral visit to western Africa that included stops in Nigeria, Benin, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea. During the pontiff's four days in Nigeria, he did not meet as expected with the nation's Muslim lead¬ ers, apparently because the various Mus¬ lim factions could not resolve their differences.

Belfast auto manufacturer fails The De Lorean Motor Co. of Belfast, Northern Ireland, went into receivership after the British government announced it could no longer provide money to the ail¬ ing manufacturer of deluxe stainless steel sports cars. The receivers, aware of the high rate of unemployment in Northern Ireland, expressed hopes they could raise up to £50 million (about $90 million) to keep the company operating.

23

Rebels attack Ugandan capital According to official reports, 69 members of the Uganda Freedom Movement were killed by government troops during an eight-hour assault on the army barracks in the capital city of Kampala. The next day government troops broke up Ash Wednesday services in a Roman Catholic church, saying it had been the staging area for the guerrilla attack. Emanuel Car¬ dinal Nsubuga subsequently demanded that the government apologize for “the in¬ sults and harm" it had inflicted on the Catholic Church.

Wayne B Williams was led from the courtroom after being convicted of murdering two black youths in Atlanta, Ca. He was also believed to be implicated in a number of other murders.

something is done to prevent it from hap¬ pening. Reagan accused Cuba and the So¬ viet Union of supplying arms to the rebels in El Salvador and pledged that the U.S. would undertake "whatever is prudent and necessary" to guarantee peace and se¬ curity in the area. The heart of Reagan's speech was a proposal to help Central American and Caribbean nations through trade, investments, technology, and mili¬ tary assistance. The U.S. commitment to the region for fiscal year 1982 would amount to nearly $1 billion. That figure included an additional $350 million in economic aid and an extra $60 million for military security.

Japan denies Poland new credits The Japanese government announced that it would grant no new credits to Poland until it lifted martial law. Japan, howev¬ er, promised to fulfill its earlier commit¬ ments of economic aid. In a related step, Japan notified the Soviet Union that it would not attend a planned meeting on scientific and technological cooperation and that it was suspending consideration of a Soviet request to enlarge its Japanese trade office.

24

25 UN expands its Lebanese peace force The UN Security Council voted 13-0 to increase its 6,000-man peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon by an additional 1,000 troops. The vote was prompted by fears that continued Palestinian attacks against Israel might provoke Israel to re¬ taliate by sending troops into Lebanon.

Reagan outlines Caribbean plan President Reagan, in an address to the Organization of American States in Washington, D.C., warned that “new Cubas will arise from the ruins of today's conflicts" in Central America unless

27

Williams convicted in Atlanta Wayne B. Williams, a 23-year-old black photographer and talent promoter, was convicted of murdering two of the 28

black children and young adults whose bodies were found in the Atlanta, Ga., area over a two-year period. Though Wil¬ liams was charged with only two mur¬ ders, the prosecution was allowed to introduce evidence linking these deaths to those of ten other victims. Superior Court Judge Clarence Cooper immediate¬ ly, in accordance with Georgia law, sen¬ tenced Williams to two consecutive life terms in prison. On March 1 Lee Brown, Atlanta's public safety commissioner, announced that the task force formed to investigate the murders would be disbanded.

28

Israel insists Mubarak must visit Je¬ rusalem on state visit The Israeli Cabinet announced that if Egyptian Pres. Hosni Mubarak "refuses to visit Jerusalem during the course of his visit to Israel, we would have to do with¬ out this important visit." The matter was highly explosive because Israel had infu¬ riated the Arab world in July 1980 by de¬ claring that all of Jerusalem, including the eastern sector captured from Jordan in the 1967 war, would henceforth be the capital of Israel. The Israeli demand effectively ended any hope that Mubarak would visit Israel in the foreseeable future.

29

Chronology MARCH

MARCH 2

El Salvador halts drive against rebel forces El Salvador ended an all-out ten-day of¬ fensive against rebel forces holed up on the slopes of the dormant volcano Guazapa. According to Defense Minister Jose Guillermo Garcia, the stronghold consti¬ tuted "a very important concentration of subversion." The government abruptly halted the operation when its troops failed to seal off escape routes.

4

7

6 OPEC to cut oil production Arab members of the Organization of Pe¬ troleum Exporting Countries (opec), dur¬ ing an informal meeting in Qatar, agreed to cut their aggregate output of oil by more than one million barrels a day to shore up sagging oil prices. The oil minis¬ ters were reportedly miffed at Iran be¬

Guevara wins plurality in Guatema¬ lan election Gen. Angel Anxbal Guevara outpolled three other candidates in Guatemala's presidential election and seemed destined to succeed Pres. Fernando Romeo Lucas Garcia. Because no candidate received an absolute majority of the popular vote, the National Congress would be permitted to name the next president. Guevara was heavily favoured to win because he was the candidate of Guatemala's ruling right¬ ist coalition. A leftist call to boycott the election was largely ignored, but violence was so widespread during the campaign that armed government troops were sta¬ tioned at polling places. The U.S. had ear¬ lier indicated that the character of the election would influence U.S. policy on future aid to Guatemala.

Mitterrand addresses Knesset French Pres. Francois Mitterrand, in an address to Israel's Knesset (parliament), declared that Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank had as much "right to live" as did citizens of the state of Israel. After indicating his support for a Palestinian state, Mitterrand asserted that the Pales¬ tinians must "reconcile their right with respect for the rights of others." The presi¬ dent then wondered how the Palestine Liberation Organization could ever "hope to sit at the negotiating table as long as it denies the main thing for Israel, w'hich is the right to exist, and the means to main¬ tain security." In his follow-up remarks, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin said that Mitterrand's support for a Pales¬ tinian state created an obstacle to better relations between their two countries.

in these agencies from 49,000 to 32,000. Though mandatory retirement was set at age 65 for ministers and 60 for vice-minis¬ ters and department directors, exceptions would be permitted if warranted in indi¬ vidual cases. When Premier Zhao Ziyang (Chao Tzu-yang) first explained the na¬ ture and extent of the planned shake-up on March 2, he reassured the country that the present leadership was "not making revolution against persons."

cause it had violated an opec agreement in February by unilaterally lowering the price of its oil by $4 a barrel to stimulate demand on the glutted market. An official of Shell Austria reported on February 17 that opec production had fallen to a tenyear low and in 1981 had been 16% less than in 1980.

8

9 Ireland chooses prime minister Ireland's Dail (parliament) elected Charles J. Haughey prime minister by a vote of 86-79. The outcome was uncertain until Haughey's Fianna Fail party, which had captured 81 seats in the February 18 elections, won the support of five mem¬ bers of the Dail who sat as independents or members of the minor Sinn Fein party. Garret FitzGerald, who had succeeded Haughey as prime minister on June 30, 1981, was forced to resign on January 27 when the budget submitted by his Fine Gael party was rejected.

10

The Reagan administration placed an em¬ bargo on oil imported from Libya and on exports to Libya of certain high technol¬ ogy products. The decision, which affect¬ ed only a small percentage of normal U.S. oil imports, meant Libya would have to find another market for some $2 billion worth of oil — about a quarter of the coun¬ try's total annual oil revenues. The an¬ nouncement followed a long series of warnings to Libya to cease its support for international terrorism.

China restructures government The Standing Committee of China's Na¬ tional People's Congress adjourned a 15day session after approving sweeping changes in the structure of the central government. To improve efficiency, the 13 current vice-premierships would be re¬ duced to 2 and the number of ministries would be halved from 12 to 6. In addition, the 98 state council organizations would merge to form only 52. The reorganization would also reduce the roster of employees

U.S. boycotts Libyan oil

11

Sen. Harrison Williams resigns Sen. Harrison Williams, a Democrat from New Jersey, resigned from the U.S. Sen¬ ate when it appeared certain his col¬ leagues were prepared to vote for his expulsion. Though Sen. Alan Cranston had introduced a censure resolution two days earlier, this milder form of punish¬ ment received only scattered support. Williams had been convicted in 1981 of bribery and conspiracy in connection with the Abscam scandal. Secretly filmed videotapes were used during the trial and Senate hearings as evidence that Williams agreed to help an Arab sheikh (actually a disguised fbi agent) with his immigration problems and turn government business his way in exchange for secret shared ownership of a titanium mine. Williams still proclaimed his innocence.

French Pres. Francois Mitterrand addressed the Israeli Knesset and declared that the Palestin¬ ians of the West Bank and Gaza had as much "right to live" as did citizens of Israel.

12

East-West parley ends bitterly Representatives of 35 nations adjourned their conference in Madrid as it became

ALAIN MINGAM—GAMMA/LIAISON

30 •V

Chronology

MARCH JOHN HOAGLAND—GAMMA/LIAISON

evident that discussion on East-West co¬ operation had reached an impasse. The U.S. and its allies used the occasion to de¬ nounce the Soviet Union for its role in imposing martial law in Poland. The So¬ viet bloc reacted by bitterly charging that Western nations were unlawfully inter¬ fering in Poland's internal affairs.

Nicaraguan repudiates his confession The U.S. government was publicly em¬ barrassed when a 19-year-old Nicaraguan told reporters at a news conference in Washington, D.C., that he had lied when he confessed to having been trained as a Marxist guerrilla in Cuba and Ethiopia and then sent to fight alongside leftist in¬ surgents in El Salvador. The young man also repudiated earlier statements when he insisted he had never encountered oth¬ er Nicaraguans or Cubans in El Salvador. The U.S. Department of State had ar¬ ranged the news conference expecting the youth to confirm U.S. charges that Cuba and Nicaragua were interfering militarily in El Salvador's civil conflict.

15

Four Dutch newsmen killed in El Salvador Four members of a Dutch television crew, filming a report in an area of El Salvador controlled by leftist guerrillas, were killed by government troops during a 40-minute firelight. Five other journalists had lost their lives since 1980 while covering the civil war.

18

controversial political topics; i.e., the riots of March 18. Violence and threats of vio¬ lence, according to various reports, caused many residents to remain indoors during the campaign.

Nicaragua suspends constitution Daniel Ortega Saavedra, coordinator of Nicaragua's ruling junta, proclaimed a month-long state of siege and suspended the nation's constitution one day after antigovernment rebels destroyed two im¬ portant bridges near the Honduran bor¬ der. The minister of interior accused the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency of com¬ plicity in the bombings and closed down a Roman Catholic radio station for an indef¬ inite period because it had broadcast news of the attacks before they had been public¬ ly confirmed by the government.

17

Voters turned out in surpris¬ ingly large numbers in elec¬ tions in El Salvador. The Christian Democratic Party of Jose Napoleon Duarte re¬ ceived more than 40% of the votes.

Indonesian political campaigns gen¬ erate violence More than 60 persons were reported in¬ jured and 240 arrested during riots that broke up an election rally organized by Golkar, whose members dominate Indo¬ nesia's House of People's Representatives. Admiral Sudomo, the chief of security, blamed the trouble on extreme right-wing Muslims who supported, but did not be¬ long to, the opposition United Develop¬ ment Party. On May 4 voters would decide who would occupy the 364 elected seats in the House, Indonesia's parlia¬ ment. On April 12 the government can¬ celed for an indefinite period the license to publish Tempo because the weekly maga¬ zine, which had a circulation of 100,000, had violated an agreement not to report

21

French voters moving to right

ments were successfully completed. After eight days in orbit, the "Columbia" was landed at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Lousma said the shuttle had "performed magnificently."

23

French voters reconfirmed a trend set a week earlier in the first round of voting for departmental assemblies by giving the ruling coalition of Socialists and Commu¬ nists control of only 37 of the country's 95 assemblies. Lionel Jospin, leader of the So¬ cialist Party, read the results as a “warn¬ ing" to the government; Georges Marchais, head of the Communist Party, said the swing to the right indicated "there is a problem."

22

President Reagan sent Congress a plan to revitalize urban areas by offering busi¬ nesses attractive incentives to invest in designated "enterprise zones." The in¬ ducements would include tax breaks and a relaxation of government regulations as well as tax credits for employees who worked in areas that met the criteria of "pervasive poverty, unemployment and general distress."

Iran launches offensive against Iraqi-held positions Iran launched a spring offensive to regain the territory Iraq had taken from it more than a year earlier. After one week of fighting, Iran reported it had captured more than 13,000 Iraqi soldiers while many of their units retreated in disarray. Iraqi Pres. Saddam Hussein downplayed developments, calling the retreat a "reor¬ ganization toward the rear" designed to prevent Iran from penetrating into Iraq and threatening its cities. In a radio broadcast, Iranian Pres. Sayyed Ali Kha¬ menei said Iranian troops could easily cross the border into Iraq but would not do so because Ayatollah Ruhollah Kho¬ meini would not permit it.

"Columbia" makes third flight The U.S. space shuttle "Columbia" was launched into orbit for the third time, with Marine Col. Jack Lousma acting as flight commander and Air Force Col. C. Gordon Fullerton as pilot. An auxiliary power unit overheated in flight, two tele¬ vision cameras malfunctioned, and about 35 heat-shielding tiles were lost or dam¬ aged, but most of the planned experi¬

Reagan says "enterprise zones" can revitalize cities

Guatemalan government toppled Guatemalan army officers ousted Pres. Fernando Romeo Lucas Garcia from office and named a three-man military junta, headed by retired Gen. Efraln Rios Montt, to run the government. The rebel officers, who said they acted because the election of March 7 had been a fraud, pledged to restore "authentic democracy." The fol¬ lowing day the junta suspended the con¬ stitution and placed a temporary ban on all political activities. The deposed presi¬ dent and his brother, who had been chief of staff in the armed forces, were reported to be under house arrest.

24

Sattar ousted in Bangladesh Lieut. Gen. Hossain Mohammad Ershad overthrew the government of Abdus Sat¬ tar, president of Bangladesh. The pre¬ dawn coup, which terminated three years of civilian rule, came as no great surprise because Ershad, the army chief of staff, had been openly striving for greater pow¬ er. In a radio broadcast after the coup, Ershad said he sought to end corruption in public life and would "reestablish de¬ mocracy in accordance with the hopes and aspirations of the people." On March

31

Chronology APRIL icance. Shirley Williams, a member of Parliament and a founder of the sdp, ex¬ ulted after the victory: "We have now got back into Parliament the man who is cer¬ tain to lead the [sDP-Liberal] alliance and will be the prime minister in waiting."

27 Ershad told foreign reporters that he expected martial law to last for two years. That same day A. F. M. Ahsanuddin Choudhury, a retired justice of the su¬ preme court, was sworn in as figurehead president. On March 30 smuggling and tax evasion became crimes punishable by death and severe retribution was threat¬ ened against those found guilty of hoard¬ ing, profiteering, black-marketing, or criticizing the government.

25

28

Voters who turned out in surprisingly large numbers to elect members to El Sal¬ vador's Constituent Assembly gave the Christian Democratic Party of junta presi¬ dent Jose Napoleon Duarte a plurality of 40.5% of the popular vote and 24 of the 60 seats in the Assembly. It was not certain, however, that Duarte would continue to head the government because of the com¬ bined strength of right-wing groups that opposed him. The leftists had cited fear of assassination for not running candidates. Instead, they urged supporters to boycott the election or to cast useless ballots. About 11% of the ballots, according to reports, were either blank or marred with invalidating marks. Sporadic violence was reported, but the guerrilla threat to disrupt the elections did not materialize.

Dozier kidnappers sentenced A court in Verona, Italy, sentenced 17 Red Brigades terrorists for their roles in the kidnapping of U.S. Brig. Gen. James Dozier on Dec. 17, 1981, Antonio Savasta, the reputed leader of the group and the admitted killer of 17 persons, received a reduced sentence of 16Y2 years in prison because information he supplied to police reportedly led to the arrests of numerous other terrorists. Others received prison sentences ranging from 27 years to two years and two months.

SDP wins vital seat in U.K. Roy Jenkins, one of the founders of Brit¬ ain's new Social Democratic Party (sdp), won a seat in Parliament in a by-election held in the Hillhead district of Glasgow. Because preelection polls suggested the sdp had lost much of its initial momen¬ tum, the election assumed national signif¬

El Salvador holds election

APRIL 2

Argentina seizes Falklands Several thousand Argentine soldiers seized control of the British-administered Falkland Islands, which lie about 400 km (240 mi) off the southeastern coast of South America. The first challenge to Brit¬ ish sovereignty in the region came on March 19 when some 60 Argentine civil¬ ians landed on South Georgia, a depen¬ dency of the Falklands. On April 3 British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in¬ formed Parliament, which had convened in emergency session, that a large British naval task force was being dispatched im¬ mediately to retake the islands. On April 5 British Foreign Secretary Lord Carring¬ ton resigned because of the "humiliating affront" Britain had suffered. The U.K. had long rejected Argentina's claim to the Falklands on the grounds that the 1,800 inhabitants were of British stock and wished to remain part of Britain. Though sheepherding was the main economic ac¬ tivity on the islands, there were indica¬ tions that valuable oil deposits might lie offshore.

6

men (Aden), Syria, and the Palestine Lib¬ eration Organization quickly rejected Meguid's proposals.

7

Uganda arrests thousands Ugandan police, according to reports, rounded up about 10,000 persons suspect¬ ed of having ties to or information about guerrillas operating in or near Kampala, the capital. Many were soon released but others were kept incommunicado. Three days later an additional 1,000 were taken into custody. The crackdown, which be¬ gan on March 14 with the questioning of some 2,000 persons, was apparently relat¬ ed to a guerrilla attack on an army bar¬ racks in Kampala on February 23.

10

Chotbzadeh's arrest in Iran confirmed The Iranian government confirmed re¬ ports that Sadegh Ghotbzadeh, who be¬ came Iran's foreign minister shortly after the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Novem¬

11

Israeli violates Jerusalem mosque Alan Harry Goodman, a 37-year-old U.S.born Israeli soldier, ran amok in Jerusa¬ lem's Dome of the Rock, one of Islam's most sacred shrines. An unarmed mosque guard and an Arab youth were killed and a number of worshipers wounded before Goodman was subdued by Israeli police and border guards. Israeli troops and po¬ lice later in the day used tear gas to control Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain formally proclaimed a constitution for Canada in a ceremony witnessed by more than 30,000 people.

Egypt offers Mideast plan Egypt's UN Ambassador Ahmad Esmat Abdel Meguid outlined a peace plan for the Middle East during a meeting of nonaligned nations in Kuwait. It was the first high-level meeting of Arab states to which Egypt had been invited since it signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979. Meguid, adhering closely to a plan pro¬ posed earlier by Saudi Arabia, affirmed that all countries in the Middle East had the right to security within borders mutu¬ ally recognized by Israel and its neigh¬ bours. He also called for an end to "Israeli occupation of Arab territories" and for the establishment of "an independent Pales¬ tinian state in the West Bank and Gaza within the 1967 boundaries." Algeria, Ye¬ JONATHAN WENK—BLACK STAR

32

ber 1979, had been arrested on April 7 for plotting to assassinate Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Ghotbzadeh's brother was reportedly also taken into custody with some 45 others and charged with complic¬ ity. Two mullahs implicated 82-year-old Ayatollah Kazem Shariat-madari in the plot, saying he had given Ghotbzadeh a large sum of money to buy a house from which a rocket could be launched into Khomeini's residence. According to a Te¬ heran radio broadcast on April 20, Ghot¬ bzadeh admitted his guilt on Iranian television.

Chronology

APRIL WIDE WORLD

Denver, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Newark, New York, and San Francisco. The purpose of the raids, according to of¬ ficials, was to open up jobs for unem¬ ployed legal residents. Of the 5,635 persons taken into custody, 87% were Mexican. A few of those detained were able to produce proper documentation and returned to work, but more than 4,000 agreed to leave the country volun¬ tarily. Various individuals and groups protested the government's action be¬ cause, they said, it smacked of racism.

The Egyptian flag was hoist¬ ed above the Sinai after the territory was returned to Egypt by Israel as part of the treaty signed in 1979.

27

National Front wins in Malaysia The Malaysian government announced that the ruling National Front coalition party of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ma¬ hathir bin Mohamad overwhelmed its op¬ position in elections for the 154-seat parliament. The victory was generally viewed as an endorsement of Mahathir personally and of programs designed to root out corruption and increase the effi¬ ciency of government agencies. Before the election Mahathir replaced about 40% of the party's incumbents with candidates of his own choice.

28

angry Arab crowds on the Temple Mount. The violence spread to other areas of Jeru¬ salem during the following days as Arabs continued to vent their outrage. Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin called the attack a "terrible sacrilege" perpetrat¬ ed by a man who was mentally ill. On April 13 Goodman was arraigned and charged with murder.

15

17

25

26

29

U.S. rounds up illegal aliens The U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service began a week-long roundup of il¬ legal aliens working in Chicago, Dallas,

Magana named to lead El Salvador El Salvador's 60-member Constituent As¬ sembly elected Alvaro Alfredo Magana Borjo provisional president of the coun¬ try, thereby ending a month of partisan political strife that followed in the wake of elections for the assembly on March 28. The selection of Magana was rendered easier by the appointment of three vicepresidents, one from each of the major po¬ litical factions. Magana, a lawyer and mortgage banker, was supported by the Christian Democrats (the party of outgo¬ ing president Jose Napoleon Duarte) and by the right-wing National Conciliation Party. The military reportedly had threat¬ ened to take over the government if the stalemate over the presidency continued.

Egypt repossesses Sinai In a simple but significant ceremony, Egypt regained control over the eastern portion of the Sinai as had been stipulated in the peace treaty signed with Israel in 1979. Israel had occupied the territory since seizing it during the 1967 war. The newly recognized line of demarcation sep¬ arating Egypt from Israel (essentially the same as that in force before 1967) would run from Rafah in the north to a spot on the Gulf of Aqaba west of Elat.

Canada gets own constitution Canada lost the last vestiges of legal de¬ pendence on Great Britain when Queen Elizabeth II proclaimed the first formal Canadian constitution before more than 30,000 people gathered in Ottawa, the na¬ tion's capital. Canada, which had been governed for more than a century under the British North America Act of 1867, retained the British monarch as its official chief of state. Quebec Premier Rene Levesque and other French-speaking sep¬ aratists refused to attend the ceremonies

Solution in Western Sahara still diffi¬ cult to find The Organization of African Unity ended a special two-day session in Kenya with¬ out resolving differences over the earlier admission of the Polisario Front-led Saha¬ ran Arab Democratic Republic to the or¬ ganization. Kenyan Pres. Daniel arap Moi warned that the new status given the Polisario Front, which was fighting Mo¬ rocco for control of the Western Sahara, presented the "most serious challenge fac¬ ing the oau in its 19-year history."

Sadat assassins executed The two military men and three civilians convicted by a military court of assassi¬ nating former president Anwar as-Sadat were executed with the approval of Egyp¬ tian Pres. Hosni Mubarak, who rejected their final pleas for clemency. The mili¬ tary men were shot, the civilians hanged. Mubarak also confirmed the prison sen¬ tences of those found guilty of complicity in the plot to kill Sadat.

Poland's Military Council of National Sal¬ vation announced that 800 detainees would be released outright and an addi¬ tional 200 granted "conditional leave" as part of a program to relax martial law. Lech Walesa, the leader of Solidarity, was not among those freed. The government also promised that the seven-hour night¬ time curfew would be relaxed provided there were no "excesses" or social unrest.

because certain provisions of the constitu¬ tion were not to their liking.

23

Walesa not among those freed by Polish authorities

30

Canada's Alsands project dies Canada's multibillion dollar project to ex¬ tract crude oil from the tar sands of Alber¬ ta was effectively killed when Shell Canada Ltd. and Gulf Canada Ltd., the last two private investors in the undertak¬ ing, announced an immediate end to their participation. Either the federal or pro¬ vincial government could assume Shell Canada's 25% interest in the operation.

33

Chronology MAY al group operating for the benefit of third world countries. Though the U.S. voted against the treaty for a variety of reasons, chiefly related to the seabed mining pro¬ visions, it could still ratify the accord sometime in the future.

completed part of its work on the pipeline but it would have no access to Alaskan gas unless the U.S. company built the north¬ ern section.

but neither gave any indication of want¬ ing to do so. Hope, however, remained that the project might be revived at some future date because more than Can$125 million had already been committed to it.

Law of Sea treaty completed Canada's energy program suffers an¬ other setback

Botha meets with African leader

After eight years of complicated negotia¬ tions, delegates to the United Nations Law of the Sea Conference overwhelm¬ ingly adopted a final version of a compre¬ hensive treaty governing the use of the seas and their natural resources. There were 130 affirmative votes, 4 negative, and 17 abstentions. Among its many pro¬ visions, the treaty (one year after ratifica¬ tion by 60 nations) would impose international controls on seabed mining and require mining companies to sell their technical expertise to an internation¬

Corporate sponsors announced that they were delaying for two years construction of the U.S. segment of the 7,689-km (4,800-mi) Alaska Highway natural gas pipeline that would carry gas from Prudhoe Bay in Alaska into Canada and then into the lower 48 U.S. states. When the U.S. and Canada signed an agreement in 1977 to build the pipeline, the estimated cost was $10 billion, less than one-third of current estimates. Canada had already

South African Prime Minister P. W. Botha and Zambian Pres. Kenneth Kaunda met for several hours in a mobile home set up on the border separating South Africa and Botswana. It was Botha's first meeting with a black African leader. The two men, it was presumed, discussed the is¬ sue of South West Africa/Namibia and the internal policies of South Africa, but the short joint communique merely stated that the talks were frank and useful.

MAY 2.

Falkland war casualties mount Casualties in the war over the Falkland Islands dramatically increased when the Argentine cruiser "General Belgrano" was sunk by a British submarine with the loss of 321 lives. Two days later the British destroyer hms "Sheffield" was hit by a plane-launched missile and later sank; 20 seamen lost their lives. As Argentine For¬ eign Minister Nicanor Costa Mendez reit¬ erated on April 30 that sovereignty over the islands was "nonnegotiable," the U.S. ended its efforts to mediate the crisis and publicly declared its support for Great Britain.

3

Israel won't leave West Bank

Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, speaking during the opening summer ses¬ sion of the Knesset (parliament), declared that Israel would assert sovereignty over the West Bank at the end of the five-year transitional period specified in the Camp David peace accords. He had reportedly intended to introduce legislation barring future governments from dismantling Jewish settlements in the area as part of a

4

The federal trial of 26-year-old John Hinckley, Jr., for shooting President Rea¬ gan and three others in 1981 got under way in Washington, D.C. Hinckley had pleaded not guilty by reason of insanity. The prosecution hoped to persuade the jury of Hinckley's guilt by arguing that the assassination attempt was carefully planned and executed.

Indonesia holds elections Indonesian voters turned out in large numbers to give government-backed Gol¬ kar representatives a resounding victory in elections to the nation's House of Peo¬ ple's Representatives (dpr), the equiva¬ lent of parliament. Golkar captured 246 of the 364 elected seats (4 had been added for East Timor), an increase of 14 over the 232 it won in the 1977 election. The United Development Party (ppp) captured 94 seats (a loss of 5) and the Indonesian Dem¬ ocratic Party (pdi) 24 (a loss of 5). An additional 96 members of the dpr serve as government appointees, bringing to 460 the total membership of the House. Gol¬ kar, which represents numerous seg¬ ments of Indonesian society ("functional groups"), was especially elated over its victory in Jakarta. In 1977 it won 5 seats in the capital, as did also the ppp, but the ppp outpolled Golkar by a significant margin in the popular vote. The British frigate HMS "Antelope" exploded and sank after being hit by bombs from Argentine air¬ craft during the Falklands war.

34

Hinckley trial begins in Washington, D.C.

Middle East peace agreement, but such a proposal would have met strong opposi¬ tion from important politicians and many Israeli citizens.

11

Huge loan swindle uncovered in South Korea The South Korean government an¬ nounced the arrests of Lee Chul Hi and his wife, Chang Yong Ja, for alleged fraudulent transactions on Seoul's unreg¬ ulated curb (over-the-counter) market. Lee had served in the National Assembly and as deputy director of the Korean Cen¬ tral Intelligence Agency and Chang, who was related by marriage to the wife of Pres. Chun Doo Hwan, was well known as a socialite and financial speculator. Chang reportedly obtained huge unse¬ cured loans from several banks, then loaned the money at high interest rates to six corporations. As collateral she re¬ ceived promissory notes worth nearly U.S. $1 billion, far in excess of the amounts of the loans. Chang then dis¬ posed of the notes, violating a clear but implicit understanding that all curb mar¬ ket iou's revert to the borrowers as soon as their loans are repaid. The fraud creat¬ ed panic on the stock market, forced one corporation into bankruptcy, and severe¬ ly damaged the financial structures of oth¬ ers. Two bank presidents were arrested as was also Lee Kyu Kwang, Chang's broth¬ er-in-law, a retired one-star general and former president of the Korea Mining Pro¬ motion Corp. Other indictments were ex¬ pected as the investigation into the scandal progressed.

Chronology

MAY SHELLY KATZ—BLACK STAR

12

Pope attacked in Portugal During a candlelight procession at the shrine of the Virgin Mary in Fatima, Por¬ tugal, a Spanish priest attempted to as¬ sault Pope John Paul II with a bayonet. The priest was identified as Juan Fernan¬ dez Krohn, an ultraconservative living in France. He reportedly opposed the re¬ forms of Vatican Council II and called the pope an "agent of Moscow." John Paul had made the pilgrimage to Fatima to give thanks for his recovery from wounds sus¬ tained in an assassination attempt in St. Peter's Square just one year earlier.

13

Braniff airline in bankruptcy Braniff International Corp. became the first major U.S. airline to file for reorgani¬ zation under Chapter 11 of the federal Bankruptcy Act. Burdened with debts and mounting losses, the nation's eighth largest carrier canceled all its flights on May 12 and terminated about 8,000 em¬ ployees. Howard Putnam, chairman and president of Braniff, insisted that the air¬ line would survive in one form or anoth¬ er, but some industry executives doubted this would ever come to pass.

14

20

Dominican Republic elects Jorge Blanco president Salvador Jorge Blanco, a member of the Dominican Revolutionary Party, was elected president of the Dominican Re¬ public with something less than half of the popular vote. His closest rival was Joa¬ quin Balaguer, candidate of the Reformist Party. Pres. Antonio Guzman Fernandez did not run, but it was largely due to his efforts that the Army had become depoliticized and played no significant role in the electoral process. Jorge Blanco, who favoured strong ties to the U.S., had cam¬ paigned on a platform of fiscal austerity to revitalize the nation's severely crippled economy. He also pledged to initiate pro¬ grams to help the country's poor.

18

ed to increase farm prices by 10.7% over Great Britain's forceful objections. The vote meant that Britain, a heavy importer of foodstuffs, would be making a greater net contribution to the EC than it deemed equitable. Britain also resented the appar¬ ent disregard of a well-established tradi¬ tion that required unanimous approval of any measure that affected a "vital national interest" of any member nation. Greece and Denmark reportedly' favoured the price increase but abstained in the voting because they worried about the implica¬ tions of overriding Britain's veto. On May 25 a compromise was reached that at least temporarily settled the issue. Gaston Thorn, president of the European Com¬ mission, noted that the crisis was not over even though "violent disruption" of the organization had been avoided.

Marcos drops two from Supreme Court in wake of scandal Philippine Pres. Ferdinand E. Marcos swore in the 15 members of a newly con¬ stituted Supreme Court just four days af¬ ter he had demanded and received the resignations of all 14 members of the for¬ mer court. Although Chief Justice Enri¬ que Fernando admitted on April 19 that he shared responsibility for fixing the bar examination score of Justice Vicente Ericta's son, he was among the 12 previous justices reappointed to the court. On the advice of a panel of former justices, Mar¬ cos replaced Ericta and Associate Justice Roman Fernandez, judged to be the cen¬ tral figures in the scandal.

16

The jetliners of Braniff International Corp. rested idly on the ground after the company filed for bankruptcy.

EC in dispute over farm prices and veto rights A crisis developed in the European Com¬ munity when seven member nations vot¬

22 Bahrain convicts 73 Shi'ah Muslims Bahrain's highest court convicted 73 Shi'ah Muslims on charges of planning acts of sabotage against the conservative government of Emir Isa ibn Sulman alKhalifah, whose family and supporters are mostly Sunni Muslims. Three of those convicted received life sentences and 60 others 15-year terms; ten minors were given 7 years each. During the largely se¬ cret trial, the prosecution claimed that most of the defendants were trained as guerrillas in Iran, which also supplied the arms that were to be used in the abortive coup of December 1981. Saudi Arabia also made arrests at that time and joined Bah¬ rain in accusing Iran of attempting to ex¬ port its religious revolution to Arab nations of the Persian Gulf.

Kenya expels Odinga from ruling party Kenyan Pres. Daniel arap Moi expelled former vice-president Oginga Odinga from the Kenya African National Union (kanu) party for "divisive and destruc¬ tive propaganda against the govern¬ ment." Odinga was quoted in London as saying that the presidents of countries with one-party systems "set up cohorts of sycophants" with the sole intention of ex¬ ploiting the masses. On May 26 kanu en¬ dorsed Odinga's expulsion and advocated a change in the country's constitution to legalize Kenya's de facto status as a oneparty state.

21

Harrier jets and helicopters. Argentina admitted the loss of some 20 aircraft but Britain claimed that nearly three times that number had been downed. On May 26 the UN Security Council requested Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar to try to negotiate a settlement but hopes were dim because neither Argentina nor Great Britain appeared willing to relin¬ quish claims of sovereignty over the Falk¬ land Islands (called Islas Malvinas by the Argentines) and their dependencies.

British land on East Falklands British forces launched a major offensive against East Falkland Island and within a few days were in control of about 155 sq km (60 sq mi) along the west coast. Accu¬ rate casualty figures were unavailable but material losses on both sides were heavy. The British lost two frigates, two destroy¬ ers, a containership, and a number of

24

Iran retakes Khorramshahr Iran announced that it had retaken its port city of Khorramshahr and captured about 30,000 Iraqi troops. Iraq had won the fierce battle for control of Khorram¬ shahr in late September 1980 but never succeeded in conquering nearby Abadan, especially important because of its huge oil refinery. The two cities are situated on the Shatt-al-Arab waterway which, be¬ fore the war, was the principal cargo port for tankers that carried most of Iraq's ex¬ ported oil, and a great deal of Iran's ex¬ ported oil, to foreign ports.

35

Chronology JUNE

27

Japan lowers trade barriers Japan announced the elimination of tariffs on 96 industrial goods, including ma¬ chine tools and computers, and a reduc¬ tion of import duties on 121 other items. The decision, which would be fully im¬ plemented within a year, was made pub¬ lic one week before the opening of an economic summit in Versailles, France. Japan also pledged to enforce its antitrust laws to ensure fair competition between domestic and foreign firms. Foreign com¬ panies would also be guaranteed equal

treatment with local enterprises in mat¬ ters of banking, insurance, and securities.

30

31

Colombia elects president Belisario Betancur Cuartas, a member of the Conservative Party, was elected to a four-year term as president of Colombia. On August 7 he would replace Pres. Julio Cesar Turbay Ayala, who was not per¬ mitted to run for a second term. Betancur's victory was partly attributable to a split in the Liberal vote, which was divid¬ ed between former president Alfonso Lo¬ pez Michelsen and Sen. Luis Carlos Galan. Betancur won 47% of the vote against 41% for Lopez Michelson.

Spain becomes member of NATO Spain formally became a member of nato following ratification by each of the other 15 member nations. Spain had stipulated, as had Norway and Denmark before it, that no nuclear weapons would be based on its soil. Spain's contribution to the alli¬ ance would consist of 340,000 troops, nearly 200 planes, 29 warships, and 8 submarines.

JUNE 2

Pope visits warring nations Pope John Paul II completed a historic vis¬ it to Great Britain that was highlighted by an ecumenical service in Canterbury Ca¬ thedral on May 29. The pope and the arch¬ bishop of Canterbury, the Most Rev. Robert Runcie, pledged to strive "in faith and hope towards the unity for which we long." During his visit the pope also spoke frequently of peace. Antipapist demon¬ strations were less violent than feared. On June 11 Pope John Paul arrived in Argen¬

tina, a predominantly Catholic country that was at war with Britain over control of the Falkland Islands and dependencies. The pontiff spoke of "the absurd and al¬ ways unfair phenomenon of war, on whose stage of death and pain only re¬ main standing the negotiating table that could and should have prevented it." Af¬ ter addressing a crowd of one million peo¬ ple gathered in Palermo Park, Buenos Aires —the largest religious event in Ar¬ gentina's history — the pope prayed for all those who had died in the war.

■a City .

Oaxaca.

0.04-0.4

0.1-1.0

0.4-2.0

1.0-5.0

More than 2.0

More than 5.0

BELIZE VTuxtla Gutierrez' V, „

'v'-—

GUATEMALA HONDURAS

Guatemala t Adapted from map by: J. F. Luhr, J. C. Varikamp, and K. L. Prestegaard

WORLDWIDE STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS

® City

NICARAGUA 1500

3000 mi

2000 4000km

EL CHICH6N S CLOUD THICKNESS Mauna Loa Observatory Hilo, Hawaii 45 40 35

J

30

jt ~ ® •o

25

2 20 < 15 10

1

El Chichbn's volcanic cloud dispersion three months I after eruption, July 1982. ^ JJF\ "Mystery Cloud's" latitudinal distribution three months ''Jr J after detection, March 1982.

Source: NASA Solar Mesosphere Explorer operated by the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, U. of Colorado.

Source: NOAA

WIDE WORLD

the swarms became progressively shallower until the final hypocentres were only three kilometres deep. In addition to the seismic activity the central dome in the caldera deformed progressively. Be¬ cause of this combined continuing activity, the usgs issued a volcano notice. A notice is much less definite than a watch and, in this instance, indi¬ cated that a volcanic eruption was a possibility but was not nearly as likely as a moderate-size earth¬ quake. The Long Valley Caldera was formed by the Bishop eruption more than 700,000 years ago. That catastrophic event deposited 580 cu km (140 cu mi) of volcanic ash over western North America, more than 500 times the amount produced from Mt. St. Helens. The current deformation of the dome and the upward migration of hypocentres were be¬ lieved to result from a tongue of lava pushing up from a magma chamber situated eight kilometres below the surface. Deep-sea drilling by the research ship "Glomar Challenger" continued with improved results due to better techniques for coring and down-hole log¬ ging. These included use of a variable-length pis¬ ton corer, which produced a 90% improvement in obtaining soft cores, and a pressure barrel, which brought back unaltered cores at in situ pressures as high as 3,800 kg/sq cm (54,000 psi). A new heatflow package was used that allowed temperature measurement every 9.5 m (31 ft) of penetration. The program was concentrating on the study of three environments: active margins, passive mar¬ gins, and oceanic crusts. Previous analysis had shown the need for corroborative information from some of the earlier drilling sites and that pre¬ viously competing phases of the exploration — multiple shallow penetrations, single deep-hole penetrations, and down-hole measurements — should be combined more effectively as elements of an integrated experiment. Legs 78 through 84 were reported on during the year. Drilling was performed, sequentially, at the Barbados Ridge, the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Mazagan Plateau off Morocco, the Goban Spur in the Bay of Biscay, the Azores Triple Junction, and the Middle America Trench off Guatemala. Leg 78B marked the first effort to apply the inte¬ grated approach mentioned above. A hole drilled five years previously on the Atlantic Ridge was reoccupied. A complete set of geophysical tests was carried out, including packer tests, temperature measurements, water sampling, and standard down-hole logging. In addition to the usual equip¬ ment, a bore-hole television system and a Sovietdesigned down-hole magnetometer were used. This combination of techniques produced an ex¬ ceptionally clear picture of the crust. A long-standing goal of the deep-sea drilling program, deep penetration of the basement, was achieved on Leg 83. A hole drilled during Legs 69 and 70 in the eastern Pacific about 200 km south of the Costa Rica Rift was reoccupied, and a depth of 1,350 m (4,430 ft) below the seafloor was reached. This was the deepest hole ever drilled into the ocean crust. It penetrated 1,075.5 m (3,529 ft) into sub-basement, also a record. (rutlage j. brazee)

[212.D.4; 213.B; 231.D]

307

Earth Sciences

Crew members of a fish¬ ing boat struggle to se¬ cure it to a dock on the island of Kauai against the force of Hurricane Iwa. The storm, Hawaii's first hurricane in 23 years, blasted Kauai, Niihau, and Oahu in late November with winds clocked at 110 miles per hour.

HYDROLOGY In contrast to the prolonged droughts and water shortages of 1981, streamflow was at or above the normal range in most of the U.S. during 1982. The combined flow of that nation's "big five" rivers — the Mississippi, St. Lawrence, Ohio, Columbia, and Missouri —was 12% above normal in 1982. Several regions including the Pacific and Gulf coasts, the Midwest, and southern New England experienced severe flooding. More than 150 lives were lost, and monetary damages were in the bil¬ lions of dollars. The Federal Emergency Manage¬ ment Agency reported that 80% of presidential disaster declarations were related to floods. In the Maumee River basin in Indiana and Ohio, severe flooding occurred during March, and many streams were at or close to the highest discharge of record. As a result 9,000 residents of Fort Wayne, Ind., had to evacuate their homes. Torrential rains in June and July caused flooding on several streams in Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Penn¬ sylvania. In early December a week of rainstorms flooded extensive regions of Illinois, Missouri, Ar¬ kansas, and other states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, forcing tens of thousands from their homes. Spirit Lake, a large body of water on the north¬ east flank of Mt. St. Helens, has presented a poten¬ tial for catastrophic flooding along the Toutle and Cowlitz rivers since the eruption of the volcano on May 18, 1980. During the summer of 1982 the lake reached a dangerous level because of damming by volcanic debris. On August 19 Pres. Ronald Rea¬ gan issued a Declaration of Emergency and or¬ dered remedial action by federal agencies. As a result geologic and hydrologic data were being col¬ lected and analyzed to determine the best method to stabilize the debris dam and to prevent addi-

308

Earth Sciences

tional rises of water levels. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was pumping water from the lake to ease pressure on the natural dam. Acid precipitation, thought to be responsible for deterioration of lakes, crops, and buildings since about 1950 in the northeastern U.S. and the Mari¬ time Provinces of Canada, was the subject of much discussion in the news media in 1982. Many feder¬ al and state agencies in the U.S. conducted coordi¬ nated, nationwide programs to monitor the chemical composition of streams and lakes that were or could be affected by acid rain or snow. An interagency task force on acid precipitation, con¬ sisting of 12 federal agencies, received $18 million in funding in 1982, which would increase to $22 million in 1983. Research also was conducted by state and federal agencies on natural and man¬ made sources of acidic substances in precipitation. The studies were intended to provide the scientific basis for a national policy on the control of damage due to acid rain. The U.S. Geological Survey re¬ ported that the acidity of lakes and rivers in New York State changed little since the late 1960s. The mining or withdrawal of groundwater in the High Plains area in excess of what was re¬ turned received attention during the year. The High Plains Aquifer underlies 451,000 sq km (174,000 sq mi) extending from Texas to South Da¬ kota. The region has abundant sunshine and mod¬ erate precipitation (400-460 mm, or 16-18 in, annually). These advantages along with a plentiful supply of groundwater to support irrigation have permitted development of the region into one of the major agricultural areas of the U.S. The in¬ crease in groundwater withdrawal since 1949, however, has resulted in extensive declines in wa¬ ter level in the High Plains Aquifer. Since irriga¬ tion began, water levels declined more than 3 m (10 ft) in 130,000 sq km (50,000 sq mi) of the aqui¬ fer and more than 15 m (50 ft) in 31,000 sq km (12,000 sq mi) of the aquifer. Water-level declines of as much as 61 m (200 ft) have been measured in Texas, where most of the depletion in the aquifer has occurred. The aquifer underlying Cape Cod, Mass., was

In April and May scientists making deep dives to the Pacific Ocean floor stud¬ ied giant clams known to flourish in fissures warmed by volcanic hot springs. The water tem¬ perature in these fissures was found to be some¬ what colder than first as¬ sumed, about 4°-10° C (40°-50° F), due to cool¬ ing from a subterranean influx of frigid seawater.

SCRIPPS INSTITUTION OF OCEANOGRAPHY

designated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (epa) as a sole-source aquifer. This desig¬ nation requires that all federally funded projects be evaluated to determine their possible effect on the aquifer. The Cape Cod aquifer supplies drinking water to more than 100 municipal wells and 15,000 private wells. The epa indicated that localized con¬ tamination from chemical spills, leaking fuel tanks, waste-water treatment systems, and indi¬ vidual disposal systems had occurred in the past. (JOHN e. moore) [222.A.2.b; 222.D.4; 232.C.l.d.i; 355.D.5.d.iii]

METEOROLOGY During 1982 weather events together with world¬ wide research programs, resulting scientific pa¬ pers, and the daily efforts of weather bureaus in more than 100 countries reemphasized the com¬ plex interrelationships of geology, hydrology, me¬ teorology, and oceanography. The explosive eruptions of El Chichon, Mexico, beginning in late March blew tons of volcanic dust high into the stratosphere, where the normal atmospheric circu¬ lation carried it around the globe and slowly northward until it was detected by scientific ob¬ servatories over practically the entire Northern Hemisphere. It permitted the kind of natural lab¬ oratory experiment eagerly sought by atmospheric scientists and astronomers for studying the causes of climatic change and other mysteries of the globe. The ashy eruption of El Chichon recalled the “year without a summer" of 1816, which was well documented in history and generally was thought to be the result of volcanic dust high aloft that blocked the Sun's rays and thus reduced summer heating of the Earth's surface. There were some predictions in 1982 of a similar effect: below nor¬ mal temperatures caused by the suspended dust from El Chichon. This forecast, seen in light of an independent long-range prediction of a much cold¬ er than normal winter for 1982-83 in the eastern U.S., epitomized the state of the art in long-range weather forecasting. The latter prediction was made by a distinguished specialist on the basis of years of studies of variations and cycles in solar ra¬ diation, sunspots, and related phenomena. Never¬ theless, as the public knew well, weather forecasting in 1982 was very much an inexact science. New questions about weather and climate and the significance of man-made changes to them were studied with renewed urgency in 1982. Of particular interest were acid rain, effluents that could increase carbon dioxide (COz) in the atmo¬ sphere or reduce the protective stratospheric ozone layer, and deliberate cloud-seeding activities. A few authorities in U.S.S.R. and allied countries re¬ ported progress in these fields, but in North Amer¬ ica reports were mixed with most investigators finding conflicting evidence. Acid rain, once thought to be caused almost exclusively by oxides of sulfur and nitrogen from factory smokestacks, was suspected to come from other sources as well, some of which remained uncertain. Recent mea¬ surements of COz and ozone in the atmosphere, al¬ though inconclusive, were not as alarming as those done during the 1970s, yet many scientists

felt that shifts in the present atmospheric levels of these gases eventually would have negative conse¬ quences for life unless solutions to involuntary al¬ terations were found. Cloud seeding to increase rainfall or to inhibit growth of destructive hailstorms had been her¬ alded widely between 1950 and 1975 as a promis¬ ing remedy for droughts and other agricultural and water-supply problems, but although these supplements to natural processes were still widely practiced during 1982 with claims of success, truly scientific verifications were less and less positive. An especially pessimistic evaluation gave less than a 5% success rate to attempts at rainmaking since the late 1940s. Ocean temperatures greatly affect Earth's cli¬ mate and weather, notably the formation and in¬ tensity of hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones. During 1982 several typhoons struck Ja¬ pan and eastern Asia causing floods, mud slides, and other heavy damage with loss of life. In late November Hurricane Iwa battered the northern Hawaiian Islands, killing several people and de¬ stroying millions of dollars worth of homes and businesses. By contrast, the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico experienced fewer hurricanes than usual, none very destructive. The reasons included changes in atmospheric wind circulation, ocean temperatures, and possibly other, still unknown causes. Although there was no adequate annual census of storminess worldwide, news reports gave an impression that fewer destructive storms than usual occurred on the whole during 1982. (f. w. reichelderfer) [212.D.4; 224.A.3.e; 224.B.3.b; 224.C.3; 224,D.2.c.iii]

OCEANOGRAPHY In more than a century of measuring temperature and salinity in the oceans, oceanographers had never detected any changes of either property in the deep waters of the ocean. Then in recent months it was discovered that water in the North Atlantic many thousands of metres below the sur¬ face had cooled by about 0.1° C (0.18° F) and fresh¬ ened by about 0.02 g of salt per kilogram of seawater between 1972 (when a survey of water properties was made as part of the Geochemical Ocean Sections program) and 1981 (when partici¬ pants in the Transient Tracers in the Ocean pro¬ gram returned to some of the 1972 stations). These changes occurred in a region of the Atlantic occu¬ pied at great depths by water that was once at the surface in the Norwegian and Greenland seas; sub¬ sequently this water sank below the surface there and flowed southward into the Atlantic along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Examination of still earlier data showed no evidence for similar changes in the decade or so prior to 1972 for which data exist in this region. The importance of these observations is that they provided the first direct evidence of how much the heat stored in the deep oceans may vary with time, a critical question in understanding global climate fluctuations. It is possible that these changes occurred in response to changes in atmo¬ spheric behaviour over the Norwegian and Green¬ land seas. If this could be demonstrated, these

observations would reveal a great deal about the way in which the deep circulation of the ocean is driven. Success in applying an entirely new observa¬ tional technique, called acoustic tomography, for mapping ocean currents over many hundreds or even thousands of kilometres was reported in 1982. In preparation for such a study a number of buoys containing acoustic (sound-generating) transmit¬ ters and receivers are placed around the perimeter of the region within which currents are to be mapped. As the study progresses, the travel time of sound from each buoy to every other buoy is measured repeatedly with high accuracy. Since the travel time of sound from one buoy to another depends on the velocity of water between the buoys as well as on the sound speed of the inter¬ vening water, all of the travel times measured at any instant may be combined to produce maps of water velocity and sound speed in the region en¬ closed by the buoys. Sound speed in seawater depends on the tem¬ perature and salinity of the water. Because these are closely correlated with the flow, the sound speed map itself furnishes a great deal of flow in¬ formation. Sound traveling from one buoy to an¬ other does so along a number of paths, all centred on a region of minimum sound speed usually about a kilometre or so (about 0.62 mi) beneath the surface but departing vertically from this region by varying amounts. As a result, different paths give information about the flow at different depths throughout-the measurement region. Resolution of detail depends on the number of buoys available. With about a dozen buoys, flow features with a size on the order of 100 km may be resolved in a study region many hundreds of kilometres on a side. Although acoustic tomography was demonstrat¬ ed by resolving such flow features in a region in the Atlantic, its greatest potential appeared to lie in monitoring flow variations over very large re¬ gions such as an entire ocean current gyre. As of 1982 no other technique was able to average small features out of a measurement of the large-scale flow without the need for a prohibitive number of instruments in the water. Since large-scale changes in ocean flow are accompanied by similarly largescale changes in ocean heat transport and storage, monitoring them is of great importance for climate studies. In recent years a number of seafloor vents emit¬ ting water at temperatures of more than 100° C (212° F) had been discovered along the East Pacific Rise, a mid-ocean ridge running from near Ant¬ arctica toward the Pacific coast of Mexico. In 1982 clear evidence of similar vents in an entirely differ¬ ent tectonic setting was found in the form of high methane concentrations in the deep water of the Mariana Trough in the western Pacific (not to be confused with the much deeper Mariana Trench to the east). Such vents are important because they are major sources of metals both in seawater and in ores. (myrl c. hendershott) [222.B.3; 223.C; 224.D.l.d; 231.G; 234.D.l.b] See also Disasters; Energy; Life Sciences; Mining and Quarrying; Space Exploration; Speleology.

309

Earth Sciences

Eastern European Lit¬ erature: see Literature Eastern NonChalcedonian Churches: see Religion Eastern Orthodox Churches: see Religion Ecology: see Environment; Life Sciences

310 Table I. Real Gross Domestic Products of Selected OECD Countries

Economy, World

Economy, World

% change, seasonally adjusted at annual rates

In terms of economic growth 1982 could best be characterized as a year of unfulfilled hopes and disappointment, a year in which the modest im¬ provement seen in 1981 gave way to stagnation and possibly a small decline. During 1981 member countries of the Organization for Economic Coop¬ eration and Development (oecd) recorded a growth of 1.3% and, although the year closed on a fairly sluggish note, it was widely hoped that a similar growth rate would be achieved in the fol¬ lowing year. As it happened, however, most gov¬ ernments misread the signs and underestimated the deflationary impact of their policies, with the result that at the year's end there was expected to be no growth or even a decline of about 0.5%. In the United States Pres. Ronald Reagan's mon¬ etarist policy slowed growth dramatically and, de¬ spite a modest relaxation halfway through the year, gross national product (gnp) seemed set for a decline of 2%, compared with a rise of a similar magnitude in 1981. In West Germany the authori¬ ties eased monetary policy somewhat, but this was not enough to maintain growth, and the economy probably experienced a small decline in output compared with confident early predictions of at least a 1% gain. In Japan the authorities did not seem to know what to do and therefore did not do much, with the result that gnp growth was well below expectations and just about matched the previous year's achievement. Canada's 1981 CHART 1

Inflation Rate (Average percentage increase over preceding year)

1979

1980

1981

■1982 (October)**

’Percentage increase over October 1981. Sources: OECD, Economic Outlook, Main Economic Indicators,«the Economist, Key Indicators.

Country

Average 1970-80

Change from previous year 1980 1981 1982*

United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Canada Italy Total major countries

3.0 4.8 2.8 3.6 1.9 4.0 3.1 3.3

-0.2 4.2 1.8 1.3 -1.8 1.2 0.1 1.2

2.0 2.9 -0.3 0.3 -2.2 3.0 -0.2 1.2

-1.5t 2.0t l.Ot 1.5+ 1.2+ -1.5+ 1.5+ 0.2+

Australia Austria Belgium Denmark Finland Greece Ireland Netherlands, The New Zealand Norway Spain Sweden Switzerland Total OECD countries

3.1 3.7 3.2 2.3 3.5 4.7 4.1 2.8 2.3 4.6 3.8 1.9 1.2 3.3

2.7 3.6 1.4 -1.0 5.3 0.6 1.0 0.8 2.7 3.7 1.7 1.4 3.2 1.3

5.0 0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.9 -0.5 1.6 -1.3 3.9 0.8 0.3 -0.9 1.9 1.2

3.0 1.5 0.5 2.2 1.0 1.2 1.5 0 1.0 0.2 2.2 0.5 -0.5 0.5

•Estimate. tGNP. Sources: Adapted from OECD, Economic Outlook, July 1982; National Institute of Economic Review; EIU estimates.

growth turned into a large decline, and most other small countries experienced a deterioration in their relative performance. In fact, the only large coun¬ tries that did better than in the preceding year were France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. In the case of France the demand-boosting policy of the Socialist government lifted growth from about 0.5% to 1.5% but led to an acceleration in the rate of inflation and acute external instability and had to be revised dramatically in midstream. In the U.K., however, a modest relaxation in fiscal and monetary policy turned a 1.9% fall in gross domes¬ tic product (gdp) into a rise of 0.5% without any adverse effect on the trend of prices. One major casualty of the dismal world econom¬ ic performance during 1982 was employment. The year started with a total of 26 million people out of work, but by the time 1983 was approaching the total was nearing 31 million, accounting for some 8.5% of the available labour force. Unemployment increased everywhere, but the actual rates varied greatly from country to country. As in 1981 the du¬ bious honour of having the highest unemploy¬ ment belonged to the U.K. (approximately 13%), followed by Canada (12%) and the U.S., which in October 1982 had an unemployment rate of 10.2%. As in previous years Japan remained the land of full employment by world standards with only about 2.5% of the labour force without a job. An¬ other telling sign of the recession was the trend of industrial production. During 1982 every major oecd country except Japan produced less than in 1981, with the shortfall ranging from around 10% in Canada and 8% in the U.S. to less than 1 % in the U.K. Overall, the oecd area probably experienced a fall of about 3.5%, the first time since the 1974-75 oil crisis that industrial output recorded an actual decline. Another consequence, as well as a cause, of the weakness of the world economy was the sluggish¬ ness of world trade. Its underlying volume was largely flat during the first half of the year, and the figures available for the third quarter did not sug-

WIDE WORLD

gest any upturn. In early December, therefore, it seemed likely that the result for the full year might have been a volume fall of 1 %, compared with a decline of 0.5% in 1981. The year's poor perfor¬ mance was the result of a number of factors. The recession in the developed countries restricted their appetite both for manufactured products and for raw materials. This not only undermined their ability to export to each other but —by adversely affecting the foreign exchange earnings of coun¬ tries exporting raw materials — had a serious effect on their exports outside the oecd area. This ap¬ plied to both oil and non-oil producers, whose problems were further aggravated by the weak¬ ness of fuel and raw material prices. In fact, the terms of trade (the relationship between import and export prices) moved heavily against those countries partly because of weak demand for their products and partly because of the relative strength of the U.S. dollar. (This meant that they received fewer dollars per unit of export but had to pay more per unit of imports than previously.) Not unexpectedly, the adverse trade trends played havoc with the external payments position of a number of countries. Overall, the oecd econo¬ mies were on the winning side largely because of the movement in the terms of trade in their favour; whereas in 1981 those countries incurred a collec¬ tive current account deficit of $30 billion, the latest available information for 1982 pointed to a surplus of approximately $10 billion. Most oecd countries shared in this improvement, the only major excep¬ tion being the U.K.; there, partly because of the weakness of oil prices and an acceleration in im¬ ports resulting from higher consumer spending, a significant movement in the opposite direction took place. However, oil-exporting countries (a definition that does not include the U.K.) experi¬ enced a large reduction in their current surplus from just over £.100,000 million to some £60,000 million. The less developed countries without oil saw an already poor situation becoming worse; in 1981 they had incurred a collective deficit of about £80,000 million, but by the time the figures were published for 1982 the total was expected to be nearer the £100,000 million mark. The one major favourable aspect of the world economy was a further decline in the rate of infla¬ tion. In 1981 consumer prices in the oecd countries had risen by an average of 9%, but for 1982 the figure was estimated to be 8% or less. An easing of inflationary pressures was seen in virtually every country; in the U.S. and the U.K. double-digit in¬ flation in 1981 (10.4 and 11.9%) was cut down to single figures (6.5 and 8.5%), while in the case of Italy the reduction was from +19.5 to +16.5%. Even France, which pursued a basically expan¬ sionary policy for a substantial part of the year, was believed to have reduced the rise in the retail price index from 13% to about 12%, although this was mainly the result of the four-month wage and price freeze imposed in June 1982. As in previous years Japan managed not only the highest growth in gnp but the lowest rate of inflation as well; the index of retail prices rose by aUout 3.5-4%, about one-third less than in 1981 and less than half of the oecd average.

311

Economy, World

In November a broker in Paris posts a record high exchange rate of 7.3040 francs to the U.S. dollar.

As a result of the growing fear of joblessness and the inability of employers to grant large wage in¬ creases in order to buy industrial peace, the rise of wages and, therefore, that of unit labour costs slowed down considerably. For example, in the U.S. during the first quarter of 1982 there was a rel¬ atively large increase in wages in the manufactur¬ ing sector, but the subsequent two quarters exhibited a virtual standstill with the result that the growth for the full year was approximately 7%, as against 9% in 1981. Similarly, in the U.K., where a firm stance by government and industry forced a more realistic approach to wage bargain¬ ing by the trade unions, the annual rise in earn¬ ings was estimated to have fallen from 14% to below 10%. In Japan the increase appeared to have been largely unchanged at 6%, but in France — where the Socialist government made several early concessions to organized labour —there was a rap¬ id upward trend during the first two quarters. Nevertheless, because of the more realistic eco¬ nomic policy forced on the government halfway through the year, the second half was expected to show less of an increase. As already mentioned, another significant fac¬ tor contributing to the fall in the rate of inflation was the weakness of world commodity prices. This was largely the result of excess supply over de¬ mand from the recession-hit economies. In the case of crude oil there was persistent oversupply, as the producing countries, themselves in growing need of foreign exchange, could not agree on sufficient¬ ly large production cutbacks and as energy conser¬ vation measures made further inroads into consumption in many countries. As a result, aver¬ age oil prices of the Organization of Petroleum Ex¬ porting Countries (opec) were estimated to have fallen by 3-4% in 1982, as against a rise of 10% in 1981. Poor demand took an even greater toll on the price of non-oil mineral products ( — 15%), and in the case of primary food products the position was further aggravated by relatively good crops in most producing areas. Considerable instability in foreign exchange markets was evident during the year. However,

312

Economy, World

one consistent feature was the sustained strength of the U.S. dollar despite the marked fall in U.S. interest rates. During the first ten months of 1982 the effective exchange rate of the dollar was about 12% higher than the average for the previous year, and as 1982 was coming to a close there were no signs of a weakening in the underlying trend. The pound sterling remained relatively stable for the first three quarters, but in November it fell sharp¬ ly against the dollar, largely as a result of a fall in British interest rates and growing overseas fears that the relative recovery in the nation's private consumption would lead to a significant deteriora¬ tion in its balance of payments position. France did poorly on the foreign exchange front; its attempt to spend its way out of the recession undermined foreign confidence, and in June 1982 it was forced to devalue the franc against the (West German) Deutsche Mark by 10%. This brought the value of the franc to a figure 18.5% lower than in October 1981. Similarly, against all expectations Japan was confronted with a rapid weakening in the dollar value of the yen up to November; during that peri¬ od it fell from 220 to 275 per $1, largely because of the wide differential in interest rates between the two nations. As indicated earlier, 1982 began on the basis of generally restrictive fiscal and monetary policies in most countries except France. This was partly the result of the existence of very large budget deficits, which made it difficult for governments to provide heavy additional fiscal stimulus (in the U.S. and Japan budgeted spending had to be cut back in order to limit the rise in the deficits), and

CHART 2

Industrial Production (1975 - 100)

Table II. Percentage Changes in Consumer Prices in Selected OECD Countries Country United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Canada Italy Australia Austria Belgium Denmark Finland Greece Iceland Ireland Luxembourg Netherlands, The New Zealand Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Total OECD countries

Average Average Latest month* 1961-701971-78*197919801981 1982 2.8 5.8 2.7 4.0 4.1 2.7 3.9

6.7 9.8 5.2 9.0 13.2 7.6 13.0

11.3 3.6 4.1 10.8 13.4 9.1 14.8

13.5 8.0 5.5 13.6 18.0 21.2 10.1

10.4 4.9 5.9 13.4 11.9 12.5 19.5

4.9 3.2 4.9 10.1 7.5 10.4 17.2

2.5 3.6 3.0 5.9 5.0 2.1 11.9 4.8 2.6 4.1 3.8 4.5 3.9 6.0 4.0 3.3 5.9 3.4

10.6 6.6 7.8 9.6 11.6 12.4 28.7 13.2 6.9 7.8 11.8 8.5 18.2 15.2 8.7 5.3 24.1 8.5

9.1 3.7 4.5 9.6 7.5 19.0 44.1 13.3 4.5 4.2 13.8 4.8 23.6 15.7 7.2 3.6 63.5 9.9

9.9 6.4 6.6 12.3 11.6 24.9 57.5 18.2 6.3 6.5 17.1 10.9 16.6 15.5 13.7 4.0 94.3 12.9

9.7 6.8 7.6 11.7 12.0 24.5 51.6 20.4 8.1 6.7 15.4 13.6 20.0 14.6 12.1 6.5 37.6 10.4

12.3 4.9 9.4 9.8 8.1 20.2 49.2 17.0 17.2 5.4 16.6 10.8 21.1 14.6 8.3 5.5 24.4 7.4

♦Twelve-month rate of change (not directly comparable with annual changes). Sources: OECD, Economic Outlook, July 1982; OECD, Main Economic Indi¬ cators; The Economist, Key Indicators.

also of a belief that a modest recovery was on the way. It later became clear, however, that the hoped-for recovery could not be counted on. In response most governments relaxed the reins a bit but not enough to prevent a further fall in output. Thus, in the U.S. the discount rate was maintained by the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) at 12% be¬ tween February and July, but by the end of the year it had been reduced to 8.5%. In the U.K. the banks' base rate started off at 14% but fell later in the year before rising modestly in November; at year's end it stood at 10%. The U.K. also intro¬ duced a mildly reflationary budget, made possible by progress in reaching its borrowing targets. In Japan interest rates were thought to be al¬ ready too low by international standards and were therefore kept steady, although there were two rather halfhearted attempts to stimulate the econo¬ my by larger expenditures on public works and housing. In France the trend was toward higher interest rates as the government sought to support the besieged currency, the position of which was undermined by the nation's policy of spending its way out of the recession. Another important feature of the year was the heavy strain on the world's banking system. This was the result of the difficult financial position of a number of large debtor countries that were not able to meet their obligations. Poland, which had run up very large debts in the West, fell victim to a disastrous economic policy and the government's inability to come to terms with the national move¬ ment in support of independent trade unions. Ar¬ gentina, which was facing difficulties partly because of the burden of and the lack of confidence created by its ill-fated invasion of the Falkland Is¬ lands, was also seeking a rescheduling of its con¬ siderable debts. Mexico was in a similar position, and for a time there were widespread fears that a major failure could lead to a chain reaction that would bring about a collapse of several large finan¬ cial institutions and have a serious effect on the

Table III. Total Employment in Selected Countries 1975=100 1982 Country Australia Canada France West Germany Italy Japan Sweden United Kingdom United States

1979

1980

1981

104 112 96 101 103 105 103 101 114

107 115 99 102 105 106 104 99 115

109 118 93 101 105 107 104 94 117

First Second quarter quarter 109 112 92 99 104 105 102 91 114

109 115 92 99 105 109 104 91 116

Third quarter 108 117 93 98 106 109 105 91 117

Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators.

world banking system. For the present, however, this danger appeared to have passed, although there was little doubt that serious problems would persist as long as the world recession continued. (See Feature Article: "You Can't Foreclose a Country.")

NATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES Developed Market Economies. United

States.

The first full year for President Reagan's new eco¬ nomic policies was 1982. Although the celebrated medium-term economic program — the major poli¬ cy goals of which were a reduction in the inflation rate and faster economic growth — was launched in the spring of 1981, and some of the personal tax cuts became effective that autumn, it did not have much time to influence the economy in that year. The economic results for 1982, however, did not cheer the proponents of the new strategy, for the recession that was much in evidence during the last half of 1981 deepened and lengthened. As a re¬ sult the gnp was estimated to have declined by nearly 2%, compared with a moderate growth of 2% during the previous year, indicating a down¬ swing almost as sharp as the one in the 1974-75 re¬ cession. Industrial production fell by around 8%, canceling the 3% increase registered the year be¬ fore, and stood at the lowest level in almost seven years. Unemployment rose rapidly, from an aver¬ age of 7.6% in 1981 to almost 11% by the end of the year. Interest rates followed a fluctuating but gen¬ erally downward trend. The prime rate started the year at 15.75%, then rose to 16.5% in February and stood at that level until July. The decline to 11.5% after that was highly encouraging. In real terms, however, interest rates remained high, exerting a downward pressure on economic activity. On the plus side the achievement in reducing the inflation rate was better than expected. The average rate, which stood at more than 10% in 1981, was cut back to 5% on a 12-month basis by November. The dollar remained very firm against other major currencies throughout the year, re¬ flecting the high interest rates and much to the detriment of exports. As the year opened, the economy was firmly in a downswing, and a decline of 5.1% in the gnp dur¬ ing the first quarter confirmed the severity of the recession. There were tentative signs, however, that the severe destocking which had caused the sharp drop in gnp was at an end, and if the rise in consumer sales could be sustained, the economy

would stabilize and enter into a recovery phase in the second half. Although it had a number of un¬ satisfactory features, the overall gnp rise of 1.3% during the second quarter encouraged the view that the long climb out of the recession had started in earnest. However, the third quarter's figures were highly disappointing, as they showed that the economy had slowed down significantly. The closing quarter was widely expected to remain flat, dashing the hopes of a sustained recovery in 1982. Apart from the disappointing low overall growth rate in the third quarter, a close analysis of the figures underlined the fragile structure of the recovery since the summer. Most of the improve¬ ment in the gnp came from stock movements. Fi¬ nal sales of goods and services actually fell in both the second and the third quarters. Given the weak final demand, it was not sur¬ prising that the industrial production index pro¬ vided gloomier reading than the overall indicators of economic activity. A cumulative decline of 8.6% as of October masked a much sharper fall in certain sectors, such as business equipment and materials. Surprisingly enough, sales of consumer goods held up reasonably well during the recession and were down by only 2.7%. Capacity utilization rates tumbled generally to around 70%; worst hit sec¬ tors, such as steel and automobiles, were operat¬ ing at 60% capacity or less. Unemployment moved relentlessly upward in step with the slump in industrial production and the severe squeeze in corporate profitability. From a level of about 9% at the beginning of the year, it rose steadily through the spring and summer, al¬ most equaling the peak of 9.9% last experienced in 1941. At that level 10.8 million persons were out of a job. By October the unemployment rate reached a new post-depression high of 10.4%, or 11.2 million unemployed. Because employment generally tends to lag behind economic recovery, it was expected to inch up in spite of the slight improvement in business conditions during the closing months of the year. The major success story of the year was the fight against inflation, which was the overriding objec¬ tive of the economic policymakers. Under the im¬ pact of the deepening recession and the flexible stance of the Fed, which allowed interest rates to decline, the inflation rate was effectively halved from the 1981 average of 10.4%. Declining oil prices and depressed raw material prices contrib¬ uted to the good news, enabling 1982 to be the best year for price stability since 1976, when the con¬ sumer price index rose by 4.8% on average. The continuing strength of the dollar also eased the inflationary pressures but at a heavy toll on the trade account. The visible trade deficit in the first ten months was a staggering $35 billion and was heading toward the 1978 record deficit of $42 bil¬ lion. One worrisome aspect was its suddenness. Nearly $17 billion of the cumulative deficit to Oc¬ tober was incurred in the preceding few months, and with an economic recovery forecast for 1983 this would lead to an even higher deficit the fol¬ lowing year. The Fed's policy of monetary restraint was "too successful" in 1981 and went beyond suppressing

313

Economy, World

Economy, World

inflationary pressures. It severely curtailed economic activity by constraining demand because of the high interest rates. Thus in the closing months of 1981 the expansion in monetary aggregates (Ml and M2) was well within the target ranges, prompting the Fed to state that it would permit faster than average growth rates in the final quar¬ ter. Similarly, at the beginning of 1982 it adopted a slightly expansionist stance in that while the tar¬ gets for 1982 set in the previous July were reaf¬ firmed, it was made known that an outcome near the upper end of the range would be more appro¬ priate. The aim of this revision was to enable mon¬ ey supply in 1982 to expand much faster than in 1981 while not straying from the long-range limits. This flexibility was the guiding principle of the Fed throughout 1982. During the period up to the end of June the mon¬ ey aggregates slightly exceeded the target ranges. Ml (currency plus checkable deposits) rose by 5.6%, as against a 2.5-5.5% target range, while M2 (interest-bearing deposit and savings accounts) rose 9.7%, against a 6-9% target. Since inflation was declining rapidly, the demand for credit weak, and the economy stuck in the doldrums, the Fed agreed to allow money supply to expand faster and exceed the target ranges. Accordingly, the fed¬ eral discount rate, which remained at 12% throughout February-July, was reduced to 10% in August. The Federal Funds Rate also tumbled, to 10% from 14.5% in the spring. The prime rate, a

CHART 3 Interest Rates: Short term three month money market rates Percent

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct.

'-1981-*-1982-Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics.

more direct indicator of demand/supply relation¬ ship for borrowing, dropped by 3 points to 13.5% between July and mid-August. The fall in interest rates gathered speed in the autumn as it became clear that the Fed was not pro¬ posing to offset any excess in money supply in the short term. Indeed, in October it announced a rad¬ ical change in its short-term monetary policy. The monetary target for Ml, which had been the cen¬ trepiece of monetary policy since 1979, was to be ignored. Instead, M2, the broader measure of money supply, became the main monetary indica¬ tor. Predictably, interest rates continued to fall during November as the Fed demonstrated in¬ creased flexibility in interpreting the money sup¬ ply figures and in its response. At the end of November the discount rate stood at 9%, the Fed¬ eral Funds Rate at 9.25%, and the prime rate at 11.5%. The flexible stance of the monetary policy, aimed at encouraging economic growth while not abandoning the fight against inflation, pleased the financial markets and touched off a boom in Wall Street and in the other leading stock exchanges throughout the world. (See Stock Exchanges.) The tax cuts provided by the Economic Recovery Act passed in August 1981 and the resulting bud¬ get deficits ensured that the stance of fiscal policy would be moderately expansionist. The budget for fiscal year 1982 (beginning October 1981), after all the amendments and revisions, postulated a defi¬ cit in the region of $55 billion-$58 billion. As the year unfolded, however, it became clear that the deepening recession was reducing the projected revenues and increasing social payments, causing the deficit to widen. Revised projections available in February, when the fiscal 1983 budget proposals were sent to Congress, estimated a deficit of $101 billion for fiscal 1982. While the tax cuts in July 1983 and the scheduled 7.4% increase in Social Se¬ curity pensions were seen as positive measures aimed at pulling the economy out of the recession, the size of the proposed deficit in fiscal 1983 and in subsequent years gave rise to concern. It was feared that this level of deficit was too high in relation to the supply of savings coming into the market. Large sums that the Treasury would have to borrow would crowd out the market during a period when the private sector would be borrow¬ ing for expansion, leading to higher interest rates. Not surprisingly, the fiscal 1983 budget, which initially projected a deficit of $91 billion, ran into a storm of opposition in Congress. Revisions of the estimates by bodies outside the government or in the Congressional Budget Office —and subse¬ quently by the Office of Management and Budget itself— indicated that the original deficit would turn out to be too low by at least $80 billion. There¬ fore, urgent action was required to cut the deficit. The Congressional Budget Measure passed in early June provided for spending cuts (compared with fiscal 1982) of about $275 billion and tax increases of about $95 billion over the fiscal years 1983-85. But the tax provisions were submitted in outline only, and a detailed tax bill was required to put them into effect. In an election year the members of Congress appeared to be reluctant to vote for spe¬ cific tax measures. Republicans in particular did

J. P. LAFFONT—SYGMA

not want to appear to be reneging on the original tax cutting pledges of 1980. Eventually, after intense lobbying. President Reagan won the day, and in mid-August the bill was passed. The net result was a revised budget deficit for fiscal 1983 more or less as indicated in February. Although greater constraints were placed on fiscal 1984 and 1985, the fact that the July 1983 tax cuts were unaffected was regarded as a victory by the administration. In conclusion, almost halfway into its term the inherent conflicts within the Reagan administra¬ tion's economic policies moved away from a colli¬ sion course. A subsiding inflation rate coupled with sluggish economic recovery had a healing effect. The rigid monetary stance gave way to a more flexible approach and, on the other hand, budget deficits of the order of $100 billion appeared less menacing. The U.S. economy thus ended 1982 with fairly high hopes of a return of non-inflationary and well-balanced economic recovery during the coming year. Japan. During 1982 the Japanese economy la¬ boured under the twin handicaps of the world re¬ cession and an irresolute, and at times divided, government. As in other countries, sluggish world conditions and increasing protectionism had an adverse effect on exports and damaged business confidence. At the same time the government, fac¬ ing a large increase in the budget deficit and a fall in the overseas value of the currency, failed to support domestic demand adequately despite a virtual lack of inflationary pressures. The result was a rather uneven, and uncertain, economic performance, yielding a gnp growth of about 3% for 1982, as against the original official projection of 5.2%. Nevertheless, the expected growth rate of 3% represented no deterioration from the 2.9% chalked up in the previous year, and —as was usu¬ ally the case —it was likely to be one of the best growth rates among those achieved by the large oecd countries. Furthermore, inflation remained under control with the consumer price index ris¬ ing by only some 4%, as against a gain of 4.9% in 1981. Although unemployment rose, both the rate of increase (from 2.2% in late 1981 to 2.5% in Sep¬ tember 1982) and its absolute level were modest by international standards. Contrary to expectations, however, the overseas value of the yen fell mark¬ edly for most of the year, although by November there were signs of a change in trend. There also was an increase in the country's current account surplus; this, despite further moves toward liber¬ alizing Japan's import policy, led to renewed for¬ eign criticism of Japanese trading practices. During the closing quarter of 1981 there was a marked deceleration in economic growth, with gnp registering a gain of only some 2% over the same period of the previous year. This was not only well below the advance achieved in the third quarter but also represented an actual quarter-toquarter decline of 0.9%, the first such decline since 1975. It was not surprising, therefore, that 1982 opened on a sluggish note and that most observers regarded the authorities' forecast of a 5.2% growth for the year as unattainable. Nevertheless, the government, arguing that interest rates were al¬

ready too low by international standards and that a strong fiscal stimulus would be inconsistent with a cut in the budget deficit, did not respond to demands for reflation. In fact, in early March the Diet passed an austere budget that provided for only a modest growth in spending and allowed for no increase at all in public-works-related expendi¬ ture. However, in response to growing criticism and the poor figures for the final quarter of 1981, the government announced a halfhearted package of stimulatory measures later in the month; the most important of these concerned the bringing forward of public expenditure projects into the first half of the 1982-83 fiscal year and an extension of the scheme for low-interest public loans for housing construction. National accounts for the first quarter of 1982 suggested a gnp gain of 2.2%. Although the quarter-to-quarter comparison suggested that growth had been resumed, the results were still far below the government's by-now revised growth forecast of 4.3%. The principal reason for the improvement was a modest increase in the volume of exports in comparison with a poor performance in the previ¬ ous quarter, as well as a strengthening of private consumption. Another important development in the early months of the year was the slide in the dollar value of the yen. Although the yen gained strength in terms of the dollar during the last few months of 1981 and was widely expected to contin¬ ue doing so in 1982, by the end of the first quarter it was down to 245, compared with 220 at the end of the previous year. As this was partly attributed to the wide differential between domestic and overseas interest rates, it provided the govern¬ ment with yet another argument against those pressing for a cut in the Bank of Japan's discount rate in order to stimulate economic activity. The second quarter's figures placed yet another question mark over the government's "do noth¬ ing" policy. Although the quarter-to-quarter growth speeded up considerably, on a year-to-year comparison gnp recorded a gain of only 2.3%. Fur¬ thermore, as this was largely the result of the

Japanese goods piled up on the docks awaiting shipment overseas. Ja¬ pan's huge balance of trade surplus was causing concern in many other countries.

316

Economy, World

Mexicans, hit hard by their devalued currency and by rising prices, flocked into government pawn shops trying to raise money.

bringing forward of public expenditure and a strengthening of private consumption in the wake of the 7 % wage award received as part of the usual spring wage offensive, there were widespread fears that the recovery, such as it was, would prove to be temporary. The yen/dollar exchange rate continued to weaken and, as a result of lower than expected tax revenues, the budget deficit grew rapidly. In an attempt to deal with the situa¬ tion the authorities took the highly unusual step of freezing the recommended pay increase for public employees in September and prepared a supple¬ mentary budget providing for a reduction in gov¬ ernment spending and greater reliance on bond financing. However, as the economy continued to falter (industrial output fell in August after two consecutive increases), the government was forced to revise its growth forecast for the year to 3.4% and take some reflationary measures. These were unveiled in early October and were worth a total of $7.7 billion; as usual the most important elements were additional appropriations for public works and some measures to boost residential construc¬ tion. All in all, it was estimated that the net effect of the package would be to increase gnp by 0.6%. In spite of the recession-induced slowdown in export growth, Japan's current account surplus achieved a higher level during the first ten months of 1982 than in the corresponding period of the previous year. This, together with the country's remaining import restrictions and large exports of certain "sensitive" items such as cars and electron¬ ic products, led to renewed overseas criticism — especially by the U.S. and Europe —of its foreign trade policies. The government had announced the removal of 67 of the 99 identified non-tariff trade barriers in January. This was followed by further relaxations and the announcement of a plan to

WIDE WORLD

bring forward some tariff reductions originally scheduled for 1987 to April 1983. United Kingdom. During 1982 the British gov¬ ernment pursued a somewhat less restrictive fiscal and monetary policy than in previous years. Partly as a result output stopped falling, but the much awaited —and often promised — recovery failed to materialize. Thus, as the year was drawing to a close, the principal economic indicators were sug¬ gesting no net gain in gdp, largely static industrial performance, and a further significant rise in un¬ employment. By the middle of October a total of 3.3 million people were out of work, representing 13.8% of the labour force, compared with 12.3% in December 1981. On the credit side of the balance sheet, however, there was a further decline in in¬ flation, with the rise in the index of retail prices falling back from 12% in December 1981 to 6.3% in November 1982. There was a further moderation in the size of wage settlements, accompanied by a growing reluctance to take strike action. Produc¬ tivity recorded another modest improvement, but relative export competitiveness appeared to have declined, and export performance was weaker than in the previous year. This resulted in a deteri¬ oration in the external payments position, al¬ though the current account of the balance of payments remained in surplus. The year started off on a relatively sombre note as a result of rather poor industrial production fig¬ ures that suggested continuing weakness rather than the hoped-for recovery. One effect of this was to strengthen pressure, from all sides of industry and commerce, on the authorities to provide some stimulus for the economy. Partly for this reason, and in sharp contrast to the situation during the previous two years, the spring budget was mod¬ estly reflationary and provided a £1,300 million injection into the economy in the form of a reduc¬ tion in personal taxation, a cut in the national in¬ surance surcharge paid by employers, and higher social security benefits partially offset by an in¬ crease in excise duties. At the same time the chan¬ cellor of the Exchequer announced a less rigid application of monetary targets and a more relaxed approach to monetary policy. All in all, therefore, the March budget was re¬ garded as a turning point in the previous strategy of regarding a moderation in inflation as the prin¬ cipal objective of economic policy. Together with falling interest rates, this engendered a degree of confidence in the short-term future, with most commentators forecasting a growth of 1-2% in gdp for the year. Optimism, however, gave way to renewed concern after the publication of the sec¬ ond quarter's figures, which showed that, al¬ though gdp was somewhat above the level of the corresponding period of 1981, there was no notice¬ able increase in output between the first and sec¬ ond quarters. Consumers' expenditure remained relatively weak, and the volume of fixed investment fell back sharply. Government consumption also recorded a decline. Exports, however, increased modestly, al¬ though there was growing evidence that, despite a weakening in the sterling exchange rate during the second quarter, sluggish economic conditions

employment at record levels and still rising. Based on the performance of the first three quarters, the gnp would at best show no growth at all. Another small decline was more probable. Although 1981 had been a bad year for the econ¬ omy, with the gnp registering a small decline for the first time since World War II, it had closed on a number of hopeful signs. New industrial orders were up by nearly 3%, led by an 18% rise in for¬ eign demand. The strength of external demand fu¬ eled the hopes that it would improve the current account, enabling the Deutsche Mark to recover and, in turn, allowing a less restrictive monetary policy. The strong external demand, however, did not last long. By the first quarter of 1982 it was still 5.7% above the same period of 1981, but by the second quarter it was down by 6.4%. The decline gathered speed in the second half of the year. In¬ dustrial production mirrored the trend of orders quite closely. During the first ten months it was down by nearly 2%, accompanied by a larger de¬ cline of 4% in retail sales, leading to considerable involuntary stockbuilding. One of the few sectors to show any sign of buoyancy was the automobile industry, which registered a 16% increase during

Economy, World

CHART 4

■

Interest Rates: Long term

-

abroad were making foreign orders increasingly difficult to obtain. For a time economic consider¬ ations were overshadowed by the Falklands war and the victory over Argentina, but by July the short-term outlook was widely seen to have taken a turn for the worse. The government was in no position to provide any further stimulus to the economy without en¬ dangering its fiscal and monetary targets (the Falk¬ lands campaign had already caused a small, unexpected, increase in expenditure). However, taking advantage of the worldwide trend of inter¬ est rates, the government encouraged domestic rates to fall in an attempt to reduce industry's costs and encourage investment. This resulted in a marked reduction in interest rates; whereas in June 1982 the base rate was at 12.5% (having fallen from 14% in January), by September it was down to 10.5%, its lowest level in at least four years. Never¬ theless, some commentators argued that in real terms (after taking the decline in inflation into account) rates were still too high and acted as a hindrance rather than as a stimulus to growth. In spite of the rapid decline in nominal interest rates, the overseas value of sterling increased during the third quarter. This, together with depressed con¬ ditions overseas, had an adverse effect on the vol¬ ume of exports. Furthermore, although the trend of retail sales — assisted by the abolition of controls on installment buying (hire purchase) in July and a reduction in the mortgage rate — suggested a small recovery in private consumption, a substan¬ tial part of this appeared to have been channeled into imports rather than home production. As a re¬ sult industrial production failed to grow during the third quarter, and manufacturing output was actually below its level in the same period of the previous year. Nevertheless, the government continued to put its faith into the measures brought in as part of the March budget and a further decline in interest rates. However, during the final quarter of the year falling interest rates caused a sudden collapse in the sterling exchange rate. This, although good for exporters already facing depressed conditions and increasing competition abroad, was regarded as a threat to the objective of achieving a further fall in inflation. Accordingly, the government in¬ spired a rise of 1% in the base rate, which by then had fallen to 9%, and expectations of a further decline gave way to fears of another early increase. As the year drew to a close, personal consump¬ tion appeared to be the most buoyant area of the economy. Investment activities seemed to be de¬ pressed, and the underlying trend of exports was weak. Consequently, despite a marked decelera¬ tion in the rate of inflation and a decline in interest rates, industrial activity was sluggish and confi¬ dence was weakening. West Germany. The year was one of major eco¬ nomic disappointments for West Germany. Confi¬ dent predictions of a significant and sustained export-led upturn failed to materialize. This was all the more disappointing because an export boom came and went without triggering an economic recovery at home. The year drew to a close with both foreign and domestic demand weak and un¬

318

Economy, World

the first half with the promise of more to come later in the year. By contrast, the steel industry was in deep trouble and sought government aid with re¬ structuring and new investment. Bankruptcies rose to new peaks. Hardest hit were construction companies, reflecting the desperate plight of the construction sector. As in other countries, growing unemployment was the most unsatisfactory feature of the econo¬ my. A modest improvement in the spring soon evaporated, and a steady deterioration set in, tak¬ ing the numbers out of a job to 1,920,000 in Octo¬ ber, the highest level in the history of West Germany. This yielded an unemployment rate of 7.9%, compared with 5.9% a year earlier. Al¬ though in comparison with other oecd countries the employment situation was relatively good, an increase of over half a million in the number of un¬ employed during the past 12 months placed West Germany in the lead for the fastest rate of increase in Europe. Notable success was achieved in the fight against inflation and in correcting the current ac¬ count imbalance. Inflation stubbornly remained at about 6% throughout 1981, but then it embarked on a gentle downward curve in 1982 and by the end of the year was expected to fall to about 4%. The improvement was aided by low import prices, which allowed raw material prices to rise by less than 2% during the first ten months of the year. Thanks to wage agreements well below the infla¬ tion rate, no doubt influenced by the rising tide of unemployment, unit wage costs rose by less than 2% during the first half of the year, compared with 4.8% in 1981 and 7.7% the year before that. The current account balance, which went into a deficit between 1979 and 1981 after years of mas¬ sive surplus, was once again moving toward the familiar territory of surplus. In spite of a weaken¬ ing in exports during the second half of the year and higher interest payments on funds borrowed to finance the deficits of the previous three years, the current account was expected to show a modest surplus. Monetary policy followed the gradual relaxation introduced in October 1981. The moderating infla¬ tion rate, improving external trade position, and strengthening of the dollar against other curren¬ cies were judged by the authorities to be suitable conditions for easing the monetary reins. The Bundesbank let it be known that it would be al¬ lowing money supply to expand in line with the upper end of the 4—7% target range. Although at this time the Lombard rate, which stood at 9%, was 3 percentage points below the 1981 peak and there was a comparable fall in other interest rates, the Bundesbank responded cautiously to the fail¬ ure of the hoped-for economic recovery. In June, less than nine months after the realignment, the Deutsche Mark was once again revalued in the European Monetary System, to 4.25% against the Central rate and 5.75% against the French franc. In August and again in October and December inter¬ est rates were reduced further, and additional li¬ quidity was injected into the system. However, even then real interest rates remained high, exert¬ ing a downward pressure on the economy.

Fiscal policy, on the other hand, once again turned out to be slightly more expansionist than intended. Higher-than-expected unemployment and the sluggish rate of economic activity caused public expenditure to rise and reduced the tax yield, thereby widening the budget deficit. The aim of the authorities during 1982 was to reduce the budget deficit to about DM 27 billion (2% of gnp), compared with nearly DM 40 billion in 1981. In June a supplementary budget was presented providing for an additional DM 5 billion expendi¬ ture (mainly unemployment pay) and DM 2.1 bil¬ lion lower tax receipts. The budget deficit was thus revised to more than DM 34 billion. This meant a spending rise of 5.5% in nominal terms rather than the original 3.2%. This was just a technical adjust¬ ment, however, and the commitments of the au¬ thorities to ride out the recession without a major fiscal package remained intact. The objective re¬ mained a steady reduction in the budget deficit so as to free the capital markets from the burdens placed upon them by the financing requirements of the earlier fiscal excesses. The outline of the 1983 budget accepted in the summer provided for an expenditure increase of only 1.8% and aimed to cut the deficit to DM 28.5 billion. France. The government's bold attempt to spend its way out of the recession and move on to an economic utopia of full employment, higher living standards, and a 35-hour workweek came badly unstuck — at least in the short term — during 1982. Thus the expansionist Socialist program was replaced by a comparatively restrictive policy aimed at curbing inflation, protecting the franc, and improving the competitiveness of exports. Other policy emphases included restraining wage increases, encouraging industrial investment, and reducing welfare payments. The government's initial strategy was to break out of the economic stagnation by engineering a consumption-led growth that would be sustained by a rise in exports and new investment. The re¬ sult, however, was very different. The recovery in economic activity experienced in the second half of 1981 was short-lived, and the gnp fell by 0.2% in the opening quarter of 1982. This was followed by a modest upturn, giving a 1% growth in the sec¬ ond quarter. Throughout the summer and the au¬ tumn the economy was sluggish, leading to a downward revision of the full-year growth rate to 1.5% from 2.5%. Although this rate compared well with the 0.5% of 1981 and with the growth rate of oecd as a whole, it was accompanied by large bud¬ get and external current account deficits, deprecia¬ tion of the franc, depletion of external reserves, and an upsurge in inflation. The overall weakness of the economy was re¬ flected by industrial production, which continued its downward trend during the first half of the year before leveling out in the summer. At this level, however, it was 11% below the mid-1979 peak. Consumer goods appeared to have fared bet¬ ter, reflecting the higher household incomes that had resulted from the expansionary budgets. Busi¬ ness investment, however, took a battering and was expected to be significantly down from 1981. In spite of the expansionary policies followed

until mid-1982, unemployment continued to dete¬ riorate, reaching a record of just over 2 million, or 9% of the work force, in May. The rise in the summer was fairly modest, and the rate hovered at around 9.6% during the closing months. Unem¬ ployment, thus, rose by about 10-11% over the average levels of 1981. Weak industrial output and the slow response of employment to policy mea¬ sures were the contributory factors behind the higher unemployment levels. In contrast to the fairly stable situation on the employment front, the inflation rate and the trade deficit gave rise to considerable anxiety among the policymakers. When the measures imposed in Oc¬ tober 1981 in the wake of the franc's devaluation were lifted in January, inflation began to acceler¬ ate and reached an annual rate of 14% in May. This was largely fueled by a rapid rise in wages, which in the summer stood nearly 20% above the level of a year earlier. To break this wage/price spiral and arrest the large inflation differential between France and its major trading partners, the govern¬ ment imposed a four-month wage-and-price freeze to accompany the devaluation of the franc in June. At the same time the currency was devalued by 10% against the Deutsche Mark, bringing to 18.5% the depreciation since October. This “elec¬ tric shock," as the finance minister described it, appeared to have had the desired effect in the short term. The inflationary pressures eased during the summer and the autumn, placing the target of 10% within reach. Fiscal policy during 1982 remained expansion¬ ary despite the U-turn halfway through the year. The budget for 1982 originally envisioned a deficit of Fr 95 billion (compared with Fr 78 billion in 1981 and Fr 30 billion in 1980). However, slowerthan-expected growth of the economy reduced government revenues and exacerbated the deficit, necessitating a supplementary budget of Fr 11.9 billion in May. The actual deficit was more likely to be about Fr 120 billion, or 3.2% of the gdp. In addition, the separately managed Social Security and Unemployment Benefit funds were in a large deficit position and were expected to reach Fr 70 billion by the end of 1983 in the absence of new measures. In line with the less expansionary ap¬ proach adopted in the summer, the draft budget for 1983 postulated an increase of 12% in public ex¬ penditure, compared with 27% originally budget¬ ed for 1982. It was planned to hold the budget deficit at approximately Fr 100 billion. Not surprisingly, the monetary policy became progressively more restrictive in the summer fol¬ lowing the devaluation of the franc. The authori¬ ties moved to check the expansion in money supply, which had been about 15%, to ensure that it remained at the bottom of the originally envi¬ sioned 12.5-13.5% range. At the same time the ex¬ change controls were tightened further. Shortly afterward, to reinforce the lower expansion re¬ quirement, new and tighter lending quotas were introduced, limiting bank credit expansion to 4.5% by December in comparison with the June level. Although the widening trade deficit meant that the franc remained vulnerable on the foreign exchanges, effectively placing a brake on the inter¬

est rates, the sharp fall in U.S. interest rates in the autumn paved the way for a modest downward adjustment in French interest rates. Thus the nation¬ alized banks' base rates, having remained constant at 14% since November, fell to 13.25% in Septem¬ ber and stood at around 13% as the year drew to a close. Less Developed Countries. The less developed countries were adversely affected by a number of unfavourable external features. Chief among them were the persistent recession and high interest rates among the developed nations. Depressed commodity prices and sluggish global trade also exerted a negative influence, sharply lowering ex¬ port earnings and reducing the capacity of the less developed countries to borrow to sustain existing levels of economic activity. Their already consider¬ able balance of payments deficits and associated external debts took a turn for the worse, exacerbat¬ ing their economic management problems. Output. The rate of real growth in the less de¬ veloped countries as a whole declined to about 2.2% in 1981 (the latest year available), compared with 5% the year before, according to the World Bank estimates. At the 1981 level it was less than half the long-term average (1960-80) of 5.7%. Cou¬ pled with fairly high population growth and exist¬ ing low income levels, the sharp drop in the tempo of economic activity predictably had a dispropor¬ tionate effect. Growth in output per head in real terms slumped to 0.2% in 1981, compared with 3% during the previous year and the long-term aver¬ age of 3.4%'. Since there was no letup in the dis¬ couraging global environment, no significant

319

Economy, World

Table IV. Changes in Output in the Less Developed Countries, 1968-81 % changes in real GNP or GDP Annual average Change from preceding year 1968-72 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

Area 1 less developed countries ajor oil-exporting countriest on-oil less developed countries# Africa Asia$ Europe Middle East Western Hemisphere

5.8* 9.0 6.0 4.9 4.5 6.7 6.4 5.0

5.8 5.9 5.1 3.8 6.4 5.3 3.8 5.6

5.2 1.8 5.5 3.5 6.2 6.8 7.2 6.0

4.8 2.9 4.7 4.2 6.1 7.0 5.2 4.8

5.0 2.2 -2.7 -4.6 4.4 2.5 3.0 2.0 5.8 5.0 3.0 2.2 6.5 5.4 3.5 2.0

*1960-70 average. tComprises Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. ^Weighted average excluding China. Sources: Adapted from IMF, Annual Report 1982; World Bank, Annual Report 1982.

Table V. Changes in Consumer Prices in the Less Developed Countries, 1968-81 % changes

Area Major oil-exporting countries* Non-oil less developed countries'!* Africa Asiat Europe Middle East Western Hemisphere

Annual Change from preceding average year 1968-72 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 8.0 9.1 4.6 6.5 6.1 4.2 15.3

15.5 27.0 19.2 6.8 16.2 19.5 51.4

10.2 23.6 15.6 5.7 21.1 21.1 42.4

10.5 29.0 19.2 9.4 27.5 25.8 49.6

12.6 36.9 19.4 16.0 40.5 42.7 58.3

13.1 37.2 22.7 15.4 25.9 32.8 65.7

♦Comprises Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. tWeighted average excluding China. ^Excluding China. Source: Adapted from IMF, Annual Report 1982.

320

Economy, World

Table VI. Balances of Payments on Current Account, 1976-82 In $000,000,000 Area_1977

1978

Industrial countries —4.9 30.5 Less developed countries Oil-exporting countries 30.8 2.9 Non-oil countries —28.3 —39.2 Africa -6.6 -9.0 Asiat -0.6 -6.8 Europe -7.6 -5.2 Middle East -5.2 -6.5 Western Hemisphere —8.7—13.2 Total

-2.4

-5.8

1979

1980

—10.2 —43.7

1981

1982*

—3.7

11.0

116.4 —86.2 -12.7 -24.9 -10.9 -7.8 —33.1

68.6 —99.0 -13.3 -22.7 -7.9 -9.0 —41.5

25.0 —97.0 -13.0 -27.0 -6.0 -12.0 —35.5

0.7 -13.7

-34.1

-61.0

69.8 —58.9 -9.7 -14.2 -8.5 -8.5 —21.3

*IMF estimate. t Excludes China prior to 1977. Source: Adapted from IMF, Annual Report 1982.

improvement was expected in the position of the less developed countries during 1982. Once again substantial regional variations were in evidence. East Asia and the Pacific turned in an impressive gain of 5.5%, almost as large as the year before thanks to the robustness and vitality of the economies of a number of countries in the region such as South Korea. By contrast, the setback in the economies in Latin America, the Caribbean, North Africa, and the Middle East was so wide¬ spread that per capita incomes declined. Africa south of the Sahara did not escape unscathed ei¬ ther; despite a modest increase in the overall eco¬ nomic growth rate, per capita income fell by 0.7%. The decline in the Middle East was largely at¬ tributable to the difficulties experienced by the oil¬ exporting countries. In 1981 this group as a whole registered a larger decline in the gnp growth rate than it had in 1980, 4.5 and 2.5%, respectively. The weak world demand for oil was the main cause of the decline. Given low oil prices and the contin¬ ued slump in demand for oil, the fortunes of those countries seemed likely to have worsened signifi¬ cantly during 1982. Consumer Prices. Progress made by the non¬ oil less developed countries in reducing very high inflation rates was disappointing during 1981. The weighted average rate in 1981 stood at 31.4%, com¬ pared with the record level of 32.1% in 1980. The International Monetary Fund (imp) sources point¬ ed out that the average was unduly influenced by the extremely high inflation rates in some LatinAmerican countries. Less expansionary policies adopted by most countries since 1979 appeared to be taking a long time in reducing inflationary pres¬ sures. This was partly a reflection of the magnitude of the problem these countries faced. The average annual rate of money expansion, which stood at 35% for the period 1976-78, was slow to respond to progressively restrictive money supply policies. However, the continuation of these less accommo¬ dating policies was expected to have had a notice¬ able effect during 1982. In the oil-exporting countries, despite the mod¬ erate and cautious policy stance of the govern¬ ments, a slight acceleration in the inflation rate occurred, pushing the average to 13% from the previous year's 12.5%. Downward adjustment from the planned expenditure levels by several governments during 1981 and 1982 in response to lower oil revenues was seen by the imf as a favour¬ able indicator for easing the inflationary pressures.

Trade Position. Under the impact of weaker commodity prices, the terms of trade of the non-oil less developed countries declined further. During 1981 the current account deficit of this group rose by $13 billion to about $100 billion. Protectionist trade policies of the industrialized countries, the global recession, and sluggish international trade were also significant contributory factors. A mod¬ est improvement was in evidence during the early months of 1982, and this was expected to continue during the remainder of the year. The oil exporters' current account surplus de¬ clined to $69 billion in 1981 from the previous year's $116 billion and was expected to continue to slide, imf projections pointed to a figure of about $25 billion. The external trade position of the oil¬ exporting countries was weakened in 1981 and 1982 by the lower demand for oil and softer oil prices. With oil exports accounting for nearly 80% of the group's current account receipts, the influ¬ ence of oil prices and export quantities was clear. By contrast, the imports of the oil exporters showed a volume increase of more than 20% in 1981. The rate of increase was expected to fall back to about 5% in 1982, partly in response to less expansionary policies followed since 1981. Centrally Planned Economies. The 36th plena¬ ry session of the Council for Mutual Economic As¬ sistance (cmea or Comecon) was held in Budapest, Hung., on June 8-10, 1982. The Council session, in which premiers of the member countries partici¬ pate, is, at least theoretically, the most important activity of cmea, though its powers are largely undefined. It makes recommendations and estab¬ lishes the main directions of the organization's ac¬ tivities, but it is up to the governments of member countries to implement them. As of 1982, the cmea comprised ten full member countries: the Soviet Union, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Mongolia, Poland, Romania, Vietnam, and Cuba. Yugoslavia had a "limited participation status," while Afghanistan, Angola, Ethiopia, Laos, Mozambique, and Yemen (Aden) had ob¬ server status.

Table VII. Industrial Production in Eastern Europe 1975 = 100 Country Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany Hungary Poland Romania U.S.S.R.

1977

1978

1979

1980

114 112 111 112 117

122 117 116 117 122

128 121 121 120 126

134 125 127 118 125 .

142 128 133 121 111

iii

116

120

124

129

1981

Source: UN, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics.

Table VIII. Foreign Trade of Eastern Europe In $000,000 Exports Country Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany Hungary Poland Romania U.S.S.R.

1979 8,869 13,198 15,063 7,938 16,233 9,724 64,762

1980

Imports 1981

1979

1980

1981

10,372 ... 8,514 9,650 14,891 14,887 14,262 15,148 14,650 17,312 ... 16,214 19,082 8,677 8,712 8,674 9,235 9,128 16,998 13,249 17,488 18,871 15,475 12,230 12,610 10,916 13,201 12,458 76,481 . . . 57,773 68,523 . . .

Source: UN, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics.

321

Economy, World

Table IX. Output of Basic Industrial Products in Eastern Europe, 1981 In 000 metric tons except for natural gas and electric power

Country Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany Hungary Poland Romania U.S.S.R.

Anthracite (hard coal)

Lignite (brown coal)

Natural gas (000,000 cu m)

Crude petroleum

27,204

28,980 95,220

22,020

84

22,872 35,544

227,052 213,972

2,028

163,020

16,214,556

609,000

704,100

Electric power (000,000 kw-hr)

Sulfuric acid

Steel

Cement

27,204 115,008

2,484 15,264 7,464 3,648 15,720

573.6 2,775.6

5,448 10,644 12,204 4,632 14,232

1,325,004

149,004

24,096.0

126,996

36,960 74,064

919.2 1,317.6

Source: UN, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics.

At the end of the session a final communique was announced. As far as its economic content was concerned, it was largely devoted to a number of multilateral agreements. Four of these agreements are worth noting: an agreement on joint research and development programs in the production of industrial robots; a specialization and cooperation agreement on the production of the microelectron¬ ic base for computers; a multilateral program for cooperation in the field of colour television; and an agreement for the preparation of the '"coordinated plan for multilateral integration measures for the 1986-1990 period." The most important of these was the last agree¬ ment, as the problems of integration had already been discussed at several cmea Council sessions. It is worth noting, therefore, that such a plan for multilateral integration measures was agreed upon as far back as 1971. It was to be carried out mainly through the coordination of national economic plans and was to be implemented during the five years beginning in 1981. The fact that at the 36th session the period mentioned was 1986-90 high¬ lighted the fact that previous agreements had not been implemented. Premier Lubomir Strougal of Czechoslovakia proposed that the coordination plan should be discussed in 1983 and finally con¬ cluded in 1984. There were many reasons for this delay. Most member countries were critical of various aspects of integration, and their leaders found it impossi¬ ble to agree on concrete measures to be taken. Na¬ tional plans are often not fulfilled, and contractual obligations consequently are not met. This was es¬ pecially evident during the last few years when the first clear signs of economic crisis began to appear in Poland and in other cmea countries. Characteristically, the major problems facing the cmea countries were not mentioned at the Bu¬ dapest session. There were only veiled references to the situation in Poland, and nothing was said about the problems of energy, food, and foreign indebtedness, the main stumbling blocks to eco¬ nomic expansion in Eastern Europe. The acute cri¬ ses in Poland and Romania and significant signs of economic difficulties in other member countries underlined the fact that a reform of the current system was urgently needed. There was, howev¬ er, an overwhelming reluctance to introduce any change. The official organ of the Soviet Communist Par¬ ty, Pravda, on Oct. 15, 1982, devoted an editorial to the outlining of the cmea strategy for the 1980s. Pravda quoted Strougal as having said at the 36th

Council session that the coordination of plans must be complemented by the harmonizing of overall economic policy. According to Pravda, the key¬ stone of this policy was the intensification of pro¬ duction. A new initiative must be taken to solve the problem of international specialization and co¬ operation in production. Special attention must be paid to multilateral agreements concerning high technology. Also the joint investment in material production, which was the theme in the 1970s, should be supplemented by establishing direct links between enterprises in cmea countries. While the principle of integration was virtually endorsed by all European members of cmea, the practical difficulties of implementing it were enor¬ mous. The cmea countries were unable to work out a united strategy to overcome their major eco¬ nomic problems. No joint program to solve the Polish economic crisis was put forward in spite of the fact that .Poland's troubles profoundly affected all cmea countries. Only the Soviet Union gave limited assistance to Poland, while other member countries, faced with dwindling Polish exports, retaliated by cutting their own exports to Poland. There was also no agreement on a unified eco¬ nomic policy. East Germany, for example, still ad¬ vocated dynamic growth, while Hungary maintained that a deliberate slowdown of growth was needed in order to regroup economic forces. All countries except the Soviet Union and Bulgaria were burdened with enormous foreign debts, and all suffered from shortages of either food, as in the case of the Soviet Union, Poland, and Romania, or raw materials and energy. There were also major differences among cmea countries concerning economic reforms. Some were trying to introduce or expand certain ele¬ ments of the market economy. The Hungarians were the main exponents of this strategy while the East Germans and Czechoslovakia were most re¬ luctant to follow it. All the cmea countries, including the Soviet

Table X. Soviet Trade with Eastern European Countries In 000,000 rubles, current prices Exports Country Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany Hungary Poland Romania

Imports

1979

1980

1981

1979

1980

1981

3,312.7 3,362.9 4,216.5 2,741.3 3,837.5 1,077.8

3,660.2 3,648.1 4,873.4 2,981.6 4,405.9 1,350.3

4,374.5 4,382.3 5,526.1 3,306.7 4,931.3 1,779.1

3,173.7 3,183.4 3,917.0 2,413.8 3,717.5 1,067.8

3,438.9 3,535.9 4,326.6 2,756.6 3,596.1 1,441.2

3,696.9 4,104.8 5,154.6 3,300.4 3,220.8 1,673.1

Source: U.S.S.R. Foreign Trade Statistics/Moscow.

GAMMA/LIAISON

Japan's foreign minister, Yoshio Sakarauchi (cen-

Union, urgently needed high technology, which could only be obtained from Western industrial-

delegation to the GATT meeting in Geneva in November. The Japanese

ized nations. In the 1970s there was a massive in¬ flow of this technology to the Communist bloc. This enabled the cmea countries to sustain a dy-

expansionism abroad and protectionism at home.

namic growth of their industrial potential. The 1mport of technology was based, however, on Western credits, and as a result the cmea coun¬ tries accumulated debts amounting by the end of 1981 to more than $80 billion. First Poland and then Romania found themselves unable to meet financial obligations in repaying these credits. In¬ deed, they were not even able to keep up the inter¬ est payments. Other cmea countries were also finding it difficult to repay debts or to raise new loans. Deprived of Western technology as well as raw materials, their economies stagnated.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE The stagnation of world trade continued into 1982 with little immediate prospect of recovery. After world exports had declined in dollar terms in 1981, the first such fall since 1958, it was estimated that the volume of world trade remained constant in 1982 compared with the previous year, oecd coun¬

tries probably increased their export volumes overall, mainly due to a further expansion of ship¬ ments to opec. oecd imports from opec countries (mainly oil) fell sharply once again. Indeed, de¬ mand for opec oil by the rest of the world had dropped 50% since the 1979 peak, through a com¬ bination of the effects of world recession on de¬ mand and increased supplies from such non-OPEC sources as the U.K. and Mexico. Non-oil less developed countries faced great dif¬ ficulties. Their export markets were adversely af¬ fected by the recession and in some cases were being restricted by protectionist measures. Mean¬ while, their imports were increasingly difficult to finance, given the high level of world interest rates and the rising burden of debt service payments coupled with high oil prices. Overall, however, it was likely that the trade balance of the non-oil less developed countries was more or less identical to that in 1981. The improvement in oecd trade bal¬ ances overall was mirrored by the dramatic tumble of the opec nations' trade surplus to approximately

$50 billion, down by over half compared with 1981. The relatively unrestricted system of world trade that had emerged over the last 20 years came under severe pressure in 1982. This pressure re¬ sulted from a combination of three major factors. First was the increased willingness of countries to use trade sanctions as a means of exerting political pressure on other nations. Second, the depth and length of the world recession led to worsening un¬ employment and increasing trade deficits; with lit¬ tle prospect of a substantial recovery, the imposition of import restrictions seemed an ap¬ pealing way of improving the situation. Third, the international financial uncertainty that followed the difficulties of Poland, Mexico, and Argentina (among others) spilled over into the provision of suppliers' credit for trade and thus was likely to hold back trade growth for some time. Protectionist measures (both blatant and covert) became more important during the year as the world recession deepened in many countries. Japa¬ nese exporters remained the prime target for most measures because of the large Japanese trade sur¬ plus and the tendency for Japanese goods to be concentrated in key sectors (such as automobiles and electronics). Several bills were introduced in the U.S. Congress to force foreign cars sold in the U.S. to have a specified minimum level of domestic content, despite the opposition of the Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. to such legislation. France controlled the level of video tape recorder imports (mainly from Japan) by requiring that these imports pass through a small customs post at Poitiers; this led to considerable delays in process¬ ing shipments and thus aided domestic suppliers. Similarly, all import documentation had to be in the French language. But Japan could not complain too loudly; its own system of interlocking industri¬ al groupings and legalized cartels made it difficult for foreign companies to enter the Japanese mar¬ ket, and high tariffs on certain goods also protect¬ ed local industry. Probably the most serious manifestation of the trend toward protectionism was the dispute be¬ tween European and U.S. steel producers. The U.S. producers charged that their competitors in the European Economic Community (principally the U.K., France, Italy, and Belgium) received subsi¬ dies of between 15 and 40% of the cost of produc¬ tion, and they wanted tariffs imposed to offset the advantage gained. Eventually an agreement emerged restricting the eec producers' share of the U.S. market for certain types of steel to 5.75%, together with separate agreements on eec exports

Table XI. Soviet Crude Petroleum and Products Supplied to Eastern Europe In 000 rubies Country Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany Hungary Poland Romania

1980

1981

1,061,006 1,162,706 1,420,757 755,333 1,277,917 210,540

1,310,920 1,617,945 1,744,515 913,503 1,613,405 523,641

Source: U.S.S.R. Foreign Trade Statistics/Moscow.

of alloy steel and of pipes and tubes. There were protectionist features on both sides; the subsidies objected to were designed to help the European countries through a period of intense world com¬ petition, while the eventual agreements restricted imports even from those suppliers who remained competitive or unsubsidized (for example, the West Germans). The buildup of foreign debts by (especially) the less developed countries had been a major concern of the international financial community in recent years. In 1982 the concern became acute as Poland, Mexico, and Argentina plus a number of smaller countries faced difficulties in repaying their inter¬ national borrowings. This led to a much more cau¬ tious approach by banks to their international loans and affected trade in two ways. First, the tightness of credit reduced demand for imports generally. Second, banks (and companies) became more concerned with the solvency of their custom¬ ers, and supplier credit thus became more difficult to obtain. Even where credit was available, it might be obtained only on onerous terms. A cru¬ cial factor as the world economy entered 1983 was how far these international financial difficulties would impinge on normal trade financing; over¬ cautious lending could cause trade to stagnate or contract, prolonging the world recession and mak¬ ing debtors' problems perhaps even more serious. Industrialized Nations. After the rapid cutback in trade deficits in 1981 the industrialized nations displayed only slow progress in 1982. Most econo¬ mies had already slipped into recession in 1981, and there was little leeway for further substantial reductions in imports; exceptions to this were the U.S. and Canada, at least in the first half of the year. The recession left little demand for exports, however, and trade volumes grew very little; ex¬ ceptions in this regard were West Germany and, among the smaller industrialized nations, Bel¬ gium, Ireland, Spain, and Australia. Thus overall import volumes into the oecd area rose by 1-2%, while exports from the oecd to the rest of the world were up by possibly 2%. The combined trade surplus of the seven major economies rose from $6 billion in 1981 to about $11 billion. But a general worsening of invisible account balances resulted in the overall current account deficit of the big seven remaining at around $1 billion-$2 bil¬ lion. (Invisibles are those transactions not reflected in foreign trade statistics; one example is tourism.) For the other oecd countries trade balances gener¬ ally improved, with a decline in the combined trade deficit from $30 billion to about $22 billion; the combined current account deficit fell by about $6 billion to reach $21 billion-$22 billion. The sharp fall in gnp in the U.S. during the last quarter of 1981 and the first quarter of 1982, fol¬ lowed by only moderate increases thereafter, se¬ verely curtailed that nation's demand for imports. The cutback in inventories and decline in residen¬ tial investment spending had a particularly severe effect on import demand. The high level of interest rates also increased the cost of inventories, causing imports of energy to fall dramatically. The strength of the dollar severely hampered the efforts of U.S. exporters. They found it difficult to main¬

Table XII. Current Balances of Payments In $000,000,000 Country Canada France West Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States OECD total Other developed countries Centrally planned economiest Oil exporting countriesf Other less developed countries!

OECD total Other developed countries Centrally planned economies Oil exporting economies Other less developed countries

1976

1977

1978

1980

1979

1981

1982

-3.9 -5.9 + 3.5 -2.9 + 3.7 -1.6 + 4.4

-4.1 -3.1 + 3.7 + 2.4 + 10.9 0 -14.1

-4.3 + 7.0 + 8.6 + 6.2 + 17.5 + 1.8 -14.8

-4.2 + 5.2 -7.2 + 5.4 -8.8 -1.8 -0.5

-0.9 -4.2 -16.5 -9.8 -10.8 + 7.4 + 1.5

-4.5 -4.9 -7.4 -8.7 +5.8 + 12.3 + 4.5

+ 3* — 9* -1* -5* + 4* + 2* 0*

-17.2

-23.9

+ 13.6

-29.2

-69.1

-27.4

+ 10+

-2.3

-1.4

-0.1

-0.7

+ 0.6

-6.5

+ 14

— 4t

-2.7

+ 2.1

+ 1.0

+ 5.2

+ 7.4

+ 11.7

+ 44.2

+ 39.3

+ 14.9

+ 68.3

+ 126.4

+ 102.6

+ 54

-22.0

-16.1

-29.4

-43.6

-65.3

-80.4

-74

-21

-44

-18

+7

0

0

-4

-3

-17 -2

at 1975 prices+ -22 + 11 -1

0

-3

+2

+1

+4

+5

+8

+ 10

+ 44

+ 36

+ 12

+ 48

+ 80

+ 68

+ 36

-22

-15

-24

-31

-41

-54

-50

*First three quarters. tEstimate. $ln terms of export prices of manufactured goods. Sources: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics; UN, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics; national sources.

tain competitiveness in a world recession when the trade-weighted value of the dollar had risen 30% in two years. Export volumes dropped nearly 10% overall, with the manufacturing sector being particularly hard hit. The U.S. was affected by the difficulties in ' the Latin-American economies, which took about 15% of U.S. exports in 1981. Cou¬ pled with a fall in the traditionally large U.S. sur¬ plus on invisibles, the rise in the trade deficit (up $2 billion to $30 billion) led to a decline in the current account surplus to approximately $3 billion. Japanese exporters also faced difficulties in their major markets. In the U.S. (20% of Japanese ex¬ ports) demand for imports dropped, while finan¬ cial problems in some Asian countries held back expansion of export markets there. Restrictions in important markets (for example, on automotive exports to the U.S. and Western Europe) also hin¬ dered export growth. Overall export volumes grew by perhaps 1-2% (if at all), despite the underval¬ ued level of the yen and, therefore, extremely keen Japanese competitiveness. In spite of a recovery in import volumes in the early part of the year as the inventory rundown that occurred in late 1981 bot¬ tomed out, over the year as a whole import volume rose only slightly. Weak oil prices, together with declining commodity prices, helped to keep down the overall value of imports despite the strength of the dollar against the yen. The yen's depreciation aided exporters in keeping export prices in dollar terms almost constant, with the result that the trade balance rose by around $3 billion, to $23 billion. After subtracting the substantial (but slightly reduced) deficit on invisible trade, the current surplus reached $8 billion, nearly double that of 1981. Improved competitiveness helped West German exporters to register strong gains in world markets during the early part of 1982. But as the world

324

Economy, World

recession continued this increase in market share became more difficult to sustain, especially with economic difficulties in major markets such as France and some of the opec countries. Imports held up fairly well, given the generally restrained pace of economic activity, though oil imports fell off in the early part of the year. The trade balance nevertheless improved substantially, up $10 bil¬ lion to a $28 billion surplus, and this helped to re¬ store the traditional current account surplus. In France the trade account suffered after the substantial drop in the franc's value against the dollar and most other currencies. The value of im¬ ports rose and that of exports fell, in franc terms, reflecting the lower value of the franc and the time lags before such currency changes filter through into volume changes. Thus the trade deficit in franc terms already exceeded that for all of 1981 by July. But with the franc's fall, along with a more restrained growth of the economy likely to follow the government's austerity measures, in the latter part of the year an upturn in export volumes and a slowdown in import growth could be discerned. In dollar terms the trade deficit did not increase much, moving up to $10 billion. With a reduced invisibles surplus, however, the current deficit was of the order of $9 billion. After the record current account surplus for the U.K. in 1981 there was a substantial fall in 1982. This reflected the $9 billion drop in the trade sur¬ plus, down to virtually zero over the year. British exporters were suffering the problems of uncom¬ petitiveness resulting from the delayed effects of the high level of the pound during 1981. Despite the slowdown in inflation, export prices still rose too quickly to offset these currency effects, though some relief appeared to be on the way late in the year. Uncompetitiveness abroad was matched by uncompetitiveness at home, with imports making yet further inroads into the British market. The boost to imports may partly have reflected inven¬ tory rebuilding, but nevertheless import penetra¬ tion appeared undiminished even after such rebuilding had decreased. In the meantime, how¬ ever, the current surplus totaled a reduced but nevertheless welcome $6 billion, though most of that could be ascribed to the high levels of North Sea oil output and exports, which reached record levels late in the year. In spite of the lira's rapid decline against the U.S. dollar (down 30% since the beginning of 1981), the volume of imports into Italy rose again in 1982. The effects of the import deposit scheme and the rundown of inventories in 1981 were only tempo¬ rary and even then only reduced the rate of import advance. After an upsurge in export volumes in the second half of 1981, the rate of growth of ex¬ ports slowed considerably in 1982 as the high rate of domestic inflation pushed up export prices and wiped out some of the advantage from the lira's de¬ preciation. Thus the trade deficit first rose and then recovered a little in the later months of the year, but overall it still reached an annual total of $9 billion, just $1 billion down from the previous year. After allowing for the invisibles surplus, the current account was in the red to the tune of $7 billion.

Canada's invisibles deficit increased during 1982 to offset an increased trade surplus and keep the current deficit still high at $4 billion. Declining gnp caused a fall in import volumes of substantial proportions. The return of domestic oil production to normal levels led to a major decline in oil im¬ ports. The weakness of the U.S. economy (Cana¬ da's major export market with over 60% of exports) led to a similar fall in export volumes, though food exports held up well. The net effect was to boost the trade surplus to $9 billion, offset by a large invisibles deficit of around $13 billion. The other industrialized nations generally man¬ aged to improve or stabilize their trade positions, Turkey being the possible exception. The decline in North American imports did not affect the smaller Western European countries. Their prime markets are the big four Western European na¬ tions (U.K., France, West Germany, and Italy), where imports held up well. Imports into, the smaller nations were subdued, reflecting the gen¬ eral stagnation. An exception was Australia, where the expansion of domestic investment boosted imports. Overall, therefore, the trade defi¬ cit of the smaller industrial nations fell from $30 billion to $22.5 billion, though a decreased invisi¬ bles surplus meant that the combined current defi¬ cit fell only $6 billion, to $21.5 billion. Less Developed Countries. The less developed countries in general faced a difficult year. Even the opec nations found themselves in payments diffi¬ culties as the demand for their oil fell off dramati¬ cally. High interest rates worldwide made the cost of holding excess oil inventories too expensive and forced a depletion of those stocks. This drop in demand led to an agreement in opec on a sharing of production, though not all the oil nations (Iran and Libya, for example) heeded the quotas ar¬ ranged for them under this agreement. The pro¬ duction cutbacks, since they translated directly into export cutbacks in most cases, severely affect¬ ed the export receipts of many of the opec nations, and late in the year there were signs that the agree¬ ment was starting to crumble. For example, Indo¬ nesia, facing a turndown in its non-oil commodity export receipts as well, reduced its oil price below the agreed-upon levels to gain a competitive edge in world oil markets. Overall, the opec current account crashed into deficit in 1982 for the first time in 20 years, and for some of the so-called "high absorber" nations, with large populations and heavy development expenditures, the current account problems were becoming serious. As a countermeasure, Indonesia and Malaysia both introduced counterpurchase policies, under which sales of oil were linked to the purchase of an appropriate quantity of non-oil commodities. Por¬ tugal had instituted similar measures on its public sector contracts. In a year in which exporters were desperate for business these tactics appeared to be effective. Whether they would be so in more pros¬ perous times remained to be seen. The non-oil less developed countries faced dif¬ ferent problems. They had to fight hard in de¬ pressed markets to sell their commodity exports, and not only were export volumes fairly stagnant but prices continued to weaken. At the same time.

CHART 5

the financial problems of several borrowers and the eventual crisis in Mexico made the availability of foreign loans even more difficult. Where loans were available, they were at frighteningly high interest rates, which would only add to the prob¬ lems of debt repayments in future years. These countries also had to pay the still-high prices for oil, and for many of them the combined bill for debt service payments and oil requirements equaled a substantial percentage of export receipts. Imports were, therefore, held back by financial factors, but even so it appeared that the current ac¬ count of the non-oil less developed nations re¬ mained at about the same level of deficit as in 1981, that is, approximately $75 billion. Centrally Planned Economies. Although the centrally planned economies faced the same de¬ pressed world trading conditions as other nations, other factors were the main influences on their trade positions. The U.S. embargo on exports of technologically useful goods to the Soviet Union and to Poland culminated in the U.S.-EC quarrel about the gas pipeline. Grain trade with the Soviet Union continued, however, though the U.S.S.R. was seeking more reliable sources of imports, nota¬ bly Canada and Argentina. Poland's debt problems led to a more stringent review of the ability of the centrally planned econ¬ omies to repay their debts, and this probably held back imports. China also introduced restrictions on imports of consumer goods, petrochemicals, and textiles. This action was partly political, with Taiwan and South Korea singled out, especially after U.S. sales of arms to Taiwan. But it was also economic, being a continuation of the retrench¬ ment in imports started by the Chinese in 1981. Overall, however, the centrally planned econo¬ mies stayed in surplus on their trade account, though this was insufficient to offset their deficit in invisibles, and the combined current account remained in the red. Outlook. The world trade system faced major threats as it entered 1983. The world economy showed no sign of any major upturn, and as unem¬ ployment continued to rise in the major industrial markets there was a possibility that protectionist measures would become more widespread and more acceptable. The financial system that had sustained the expansion of world trade after the first oil crisis in 1973 was now showing serious weakness. (eiu)

Effective Exchange Rates * average rates, 1975 =» 100

115

INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE AND PAYMENTS

. :j 1 i 1

In 1982 the pressures of nine years of recession, with only brief periods of growth, and the grow¬ ing realization that slow growth was the most opti¬ mistic realistic forecast for the next few years led to a series of disruptions in the international econo¬ my. The earliest and most obvious effect was the weakening of the price of oil, with its consequences for balances of payments, inflation, and capital flows. Pressures on exchange rates began to increase both because continuing disparities in economic performance reached levels that could no longer be ignored and because policy reactions to the recession diverged. The geographic spread and level of capital movements reacted, both directly

* Measure of a currency's value relative to a weighted average of the values of the currencies of the country’s trading partners, t Fourth quarter figures for 1982 are estimated. Source: international Monetary Fund, international Financial Statistics.

Economy, World

to those influences and to the related movements in interest rates and also to the changed prospects for different borrowers as pessimism about recov¬ ery spread. Protectionist measures continued, and there was no progress on new trading or financing arrangements. With total trade in oil falling almost 10% for the second year in a row and the volume of opec ex¬ ports consequently falling a further 15%, the opec current balance was halved in spite of stagnation in the imports of those nations. The other less de¬ veloped countries gained only a small improve¬ ment in their current balance, partly because they reduced the volume of their oil imports by less than the developed countries but mainly because the recession reduced the prices of their primary commodity exports so that they suffered nearly as severe a decline in terms of trade as did the oil pro¬ ducers. In consequence, they also restrained their imports from the industrial countries. The centrally planned economies also restrained their imports because of pressure on their external payments, and there was little change in their bal¬ ance. The result of these changes for the industrial countries was a recovery back into surplus because of the decline in the relative price of oil. In the two years since 1980 they made up all of their move into deficit in the two preceding years. In contrast to most recent years, however, they had no im¬ provement in volume terms in their balance with the rest of the world. The effects of the recession on the nonindustrial countries finally became so se¬ vere that they could no longer provide a source of external demand to the oecd countries to help off¬ set the lack of growth in domestic demand. The improvement in the current balances of the oecd countries was not only weakly based, de¬ pending as it did on price movements rather than volume gains, but was also very uneven. Most of it was accounted for by Canada, West Germany, and the smaller European countries, although Italy and Japan might also show some improvement for the year. France and the U.K. suffered large falls. The U.S. was in surplus during the first half of the year because of its very weak economic perfor¬ mance. West Germany achieved a large increase in volume because of its competitiveness at the begin¬ ning of 1982, and the smaller countries also im¬ proved their volume performance, again possibly because of their greater competitiveness relative to the U.S. The improvement in Italy's balance was

Table XIII. Foreign Investment by Major Countries In $000,000,000 Country

West Germany Japan United Kingdom United States Total

West Germany Japan United Kingdom United States Total

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

+ 6.6 -12.6 -6.6 -16.9

+ 3.5 + 2.4 -8.9 -11.8

+ 4.4 -6.4 -20.6 + 4.8

-34.5

-29.5

-14.8

-17.9

+ 0.4 -0.5 +3.3 + 15.5

Net interest, dividends, and profits + 1.0 + 1.3 + 0.2 + 2.5 -0.3 -0.2 + 0.1 +0.9 + 1.7 +2.5 +0.2 + 1.1 + 12.8 + 16.0 + 18.0 + 20.6

+ 1.7 + 2.0 + 1.8 + 31.2

+ 1.8 + 0.9 -0.1 + 29.9

-0.4 -0.8 + 2.7 +33.0

+ 18.7

+ 15.2

+ 36.7

+ 32.5

+34.5

-2.4 -3.9 + 6.6 -7.4

-7.4 -0.3 + 1.5 -21.4

-7.1

-27.6

Source: National sources.

Long-term capital flows -0.6 -5.6 -1.5 -0.9 -12.4 -3.2 + 2.6 + 4.9 -6.2 -21.2 -17.6 -14.4 -20.2

+ 19.6

-21.5

+ 18.4

+25.1

1981

purely the effect of its relatively high inflation on its terms of trade, while Japan gained greatly from the decline in the oil price because oil accounted for almost half its imports. France failed to participate in the general im¬ provement in terms of trade because of its devalua¬ tion in the first part of the year; it also increased its imports relatively rapidly because of its "high" growth rate of 1.3% (against a European average of about zero) and suffered a large drop in exports be¬ cause of a worsening of competitiveness in 1981. The U.K. also suffered from a falling exchange rate, and its loss of competitiveness on imports and exports in 1977-80 had been much more severe than that of France. The nature of the current bal¬ ance improvement and its concentration in coun¬ tries that either had domestic reasons for restraint (Canada and West Germany) or were too small to have independent economic policies suggested that it did not represent a successful permanent adaptation to the new economic conditions. The effective transfer of part of the opec surplus to the developed countries meant that those na¬ tions must in the future be the ultimate source of some of the capital flows required to finance the deficit of the non-oil less developed countries. Dur¬ ing the 1970s most of the increase in the deficits of the less developed countries was covered by shortand medium-term borrowing on the international capital markets. Between 1974 and 1981, when their combined deficit rose about $50 billion, this type of lending increased by $35 billion, to over $40 billion, while bilateral aid rose only about $10 billion and aid from the international agencies per¬ haps another $10 billion. This not only offered those borrowers the form of effectively uncondi¬ tional flexible lending that they preferred but also suited the preferences of the opec countries, which were the principal depositors on these mar¬ kets. Other holders of surplus funds, ultimately the consumers or investors in developed countries whose spending on oil had been reduced, were unlikely to have the same preference for mediumterm international bank deposits as did the opec governments. Although even at its current level the opec surplus still provided a large base for such loans, its decline in 1982 appeared already to have been reflected in a sharp contraction in lending to the non-oil less developed countries. The apparent decline in the current deficit of those non-oil na¬ tions, in spite of the reduction in their income from exports, might well reflect a reduction in the availability of funds to finance deficits. Before the rise in oil prices, foreign direct invest¬ ment was an important component of capital flows from the developed to the less developed countries. Long-term capital flows from the traditional ex¬ porters of capital fluctuated greatly during the 1970s. West Germany, one of the countries cur¬ rently in surplus, had become an importer of capi¬ tal while it was in deficit, but it appeared to have moved back into exporting capital in the first half of 1982. Japan and the U.K. also appeared to be in¬ creasing their capital outflows. The U.S., howev¬ er, traditionally the most important source, declined sharply in importance in the second half of the 1970s, and indeed it was in surplus on long-

term capital in 1981. Its increasingly poor perfor¬ mance on current account made any change in this unlikely. The necessary shift to different forms and sources of finance was therefore probably occur¬ ring fairly slowly and hesitantly as both investors and borrowers adjusted. This situation probably restrained imports and growth by the less devel¬ oped countries, even beyond what would be ex¬ pected from their low export income. Net exchange rate movements and fluctuations were large in 1982, and they became more impor¬ tant even within the European Monetary System (ems), the semifixed system that included all EC members except Greece and the U.K. The second half of the year was overshadowed by continuing pressure on the French franc, the level of which within the ems had to be defended by means of a $4 billion loan on the Euromarkets and other borrow¬ ing in addition to the usual intra-EMS arrange¬ ments. During the first three quarters of 1982 the Belgian and French francs both fell over 10% against the Deutsche Mark, more than their de¬ clines up to that time since the beginning of the ems in 1979. The Danish krone and Italian lira fell over 5%. The Netherlands guilder and Irish punt showed little change. The ems currencies together declined by more than 10% against the U.S. dollar, whose effective rate continued its rise; the dollar gained more than 10% during 1982 after a rise of almost 15% in 1981. The U.K. effective rate fell slightly but remained in its now normal position between the ems and U.S. currencies. The yen's ef¬ fective rate fell sharply during 1982. These ex¬ change rate movements among currency blocs clearly were not closely related to the current bal¬ ance performance discussed above, although the movements within the ems probably reflected the results of the increasing divergence of economic performance and economic policy over the last three years, particularly between France and West Germany. As in 1981 it was clear that the relative levels of interest rates and expectations about them played a major part. Although they declined somewhat, nominal short-term rates in the U.S. remained ex¬ tremely high, by historical standards, in absolute terms, and relative to the other industrial coun¬ tries. Japanese rates, on the other hand, remained extremely low. The West German and U.K. rates moved down to slightly less than that of the U.S. For effects beyond exchange rate movements, however, it is important to note the level of inter¬ est rates: in nominal terms, even after the recent declines, all the industrial countries except Japan had rates much higher than they had ever had before 1980. In real terms (that is, with the nomi¬ nal interest rates deflated by the rise in average output prices for the economies) the comparison was more striking and applied to Japan as well. Not only were the 1981-82 rates unprecedentedly high but they were in sharp contrast to the excep¬ tionally low and negative rates in the mid-1970s. This coexistence of high real interest rates and recession stemmed in part from 1982's position as a year of transition, with the reduction of inflation and of expectations about growth not yet fully transmitted into interest rates, but it was also the

Table XIV. Nominal and Real Short-Term Interest Rates In % 1982 Country

France West Germany Japan United Kingdom United States

France West Germany Japan United Kingdom United States

1960-66

4.6 5.9 5.0 3.4

0.9 0.7 1.2 1.6

1967-73

6.8 5.4 6.9 5.4

2.6 -1.0 0.5 0.7

1974-80 Nominal 9.8 6.2 5.4 11.0 7.5 Real* -0.8 1.4 -1.6 -4.7 -0.1

1979

1980

1981

First half

9.5 6.7 4.4 13.1 10.1

12.2 9.5 6.3 15.0 11.5

15.3 12.1 5.7 13.0 14.0

15.5 9.7 5.4 13.0 12.6

14.4 8.9 5.4 10.6 9.3

-0.5 2.8 1.9 -1.7 1.5

0.5 4.5 3.1 -3.3 2.4

3.0 7.5 2.8 1.4 4.4

1.1 5.1 2.7 5.5 5.3

2.9 4.2 2.6 4.7 3.3

*The nominal interest rate divided by the rise in the GDP implicit price deflator. Sources: OECD, Historical Statistics, 1966-1980, National Institute Economic Review, November, 1982.

result of the shift in the last few years toward the greater use of monetary restraint in economic poli¬ cy. This practice had not yet been fully accommo¬ dated in international financial arrangements and, combined with the domestic policy priority for controlling inflation, it tended to produce upward pressure on interest rates. This, combined with the heavy use of bank finance during the 1970s recession, helped to produce the crisis in interna¬ tional bank lending, particularly to the non-oil less developed countries, in 1982. The threat of a serious reduction in lending to all less developed countries, which would inevitably have been followed by large-scale defaulting as borrowers found it impossible to “roll over" exist¬ ing debt as well as to obtain new finance, was real at the end of the summer, but in the autumn it re¬ ceded. The nominal level of interest rates was re¬ duced, and the major banks did not withdraw from lending. This may have been at least helped by the intervention of national and international financial authorities. There was a clear and quite sudden shift in pronouncements by the imf to¬ ward emphasizing the need to continue lending and away from stressing the duty of less developed countries to adapt to recession, which had been the theme as late as the summer. There was partic¬ ular encouragement for banks to lend to the heavy borrowers in Latin America that had turned to the imf for finance: Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. There appeared to have been improvements in na¬ tional arrangements to support banks in tempo¬ rary liquidity difficulties. There was also a relaxation in U.S. monetary policy. International action to meet the difficulties cre¬ ated by the recession on a more permanent basis was lacking. The rise in imf lending in 1981 was not repeated at the same rate in 1982. There was increased discussion of the need for a new set of rules for international exchange rates, interest rates, and monetary management and also for new financing facilities from the imf, but no action was taken. On the trade side there was retreat; at the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (gatt) ministerial conference in November the industrial countries were no longer willing even to pledge themselves to avoid increasing protection. (sheila a. b. page)

Third quarter

ECUADOR

Ecuador

Ecuador

A rise in the price of fuel and flour brought rioters into the streets of Quito in October. It took the combined efforts of sol¬ diers and police to quell the demonstrators.

A republic on the west coast of South America, Ec¬ uador is bounded by Colombia, Peru, and the Pa¬ cific Ocean. Area: 281,334 sq km (108,624 sq mi), including the Galapagos Islands (7,976 sq km), which is an insular province. Pop. (1983 est.): 9,251,000. Cap.: Quito (pop., 1983 est., 918,900). Largest city: Guayaquil (pop., 1983 est., 1,278,900). Language: Spanish, but Indians speak Quechuan and Jivaroan. Religion: predominantly Roman Catholic. President in 1982, Osvaldo Hur¬ tado Larrea. The already shaky coalition governing Ecuador came under increasing strain in 1982. Several Cabi¬ net changes were made, reflecting the fluctuations in power within the coalition. In September Ener¬ gy Minister Eduardo Ortega resigned both that post and the presidency of the Organization of Pe¬ troleum Exporting Countries (opec) as a result of a congressional vote of censure over his handling of energy policy. Jaime Morillo also resigned as min¬ ister of finance rather than face a similar vote. Pres. Osvaldo Hurtado Larrea replaced those ministers with independents so that only four Cabinet posts were affiliated with political parties. The economy deteriorated rapidly at the begin¬ ning of the year as oil revenues declined and inter¬ national interest rates remained high. In May the official exchange rate for the sucre was devalued, for the first time in over a decade, from 25 to 33 sucres to the U.S. dollar. In spite of this move, the free-market rate continued to depreciate to over 70 sucres to the dollar in July before making a slight recovery later in the year. Foreign borrowing was still necessary to support the balance of payments, and a debt crisis was seen to be imminent as inter¬ national reserves declined; negotiations were start¬ ed to reschedule part of the $5.2 billion foreign public debt. It was hoped that new legislation would attract foreign investment and thus in¬ crease oil exports, as rising domestic consumption threatened to make Ecuador the first net oil im¬ porter within opec.

WIDE WORLD

Education. (1979-80) Primary, pupils 1,427,627, teach¬ ers 39,825; secondary, pupils 475,857, teachers (1978-79) 24,120; vocational, pupils 59,588, teachers (1978-79) 5,951; higher, students 274,968, teaching staff 11,998. Finance. Monetary unit: sucre, with (Sept. 20, 1982) an official rate of 33.15 sucres to U.S. $1 (free official rate of 56.84 sucres = £1 sterling). Gold and other reserves (June 1982) U.S. $587 million. Budget (1982 est.) balanced at 64,770,000,000 sucres. Gross national product (1981) 308,560,000,000 sucres. Money supply (March 1982) 64,802,000,000 sucres. Cost of living (Quito; 1975 = 100; April 1982) 222.7. Foreign Trade. (1981) Imports U.S. $2,246,100,000; ex¬ ports U.S. $2,541,600,000. Import sources (1980): U.S. 38%; Japan 14%; West Germany 11%; Italy 5%. Export destinations (1980): U.S. 31%; Chile 9%. Main exports (1980): crude oil 52%; bananas 9%; cocoa and products 8%; coffee 6%. Transport and Communications. Roads (1980) 37,910 km. Motor vehicles in use (1980): passenger c. 73,700; commercial (including buses) c. 160,700. Railways: (1980) 965 km; traffic (1978) 65 million passenger-km, freight 34 million net ton-km. Air traffic (1980): c. 916 million pas¬ senger-km; freight c. 34.6 million net ton-km. Telephones (Jan. 1980) 260,000. Radio receivers (Dec. 1978) 2,540,000. Television receivers (Dec. 1979) c. 400,000. Agriculture. Production (in 000; metric tons; 1981): rice 402; corn c. 246; potatoes c. 349; cassava c. 236; sugar, raw value c. 359; bananas c. 2,275; pineapples c. 139; oranges c. 530; coffee c. 88; cocoa c. 96; fish catch (1980) c. 671. Livestock (in 000; 1981): cattle 3,032; sheep 3,034; pigs 3,721; horses c. 299; chickens c. 23,479. Industry. Production (in 000; metric tons; 1979): ce¬ ment 1,034; crude steel 114; crude oil (1981) 10,732; natu¬ ral gas (cu m;1980) 31,642; petroleum products c. 4,440; electricity (kw-hr; 1980) c. 3,155,000; gold (troy oz; 1980) 3.3; silver (troy oz; 1980) 24.

The government faced severe criticism from or¬ ganized labour. A general strike protesting auster¬ ity measures took place on October 21, despite the declaration of a state of emergency. The private sector was also disaffected with the government's economic management, as companies suffered from slack demand coupled with rising costs and falling exports. (sarah cameron)

Education Judging from unesco's statistics, the world illiter¬ acy rate continued its decline in 1982. unesco's projections showed that it would fall to 25.7% by 1990 (from a figure of 44.3% in 1950). However, because of the increase in population the actual number of illiterates continued to rise. What caused particular concern in 1982 was evidence of illiteracy in some of the advanced countries. A re¬ port drawn up for the European Parliament by Phili Viehoff, on behalf of the Committee on Youth, Culture, Education, Information, and Sport, said that there were some 10 million to 15 million illiterates in the countries of the European Community (not including Greece). Based on an earlier survey, some two million of these were in the United Kingdom. France, West Germany, and Luxembourg denied the existence of illiteracy within their borders, but the evidence suggested that this was untrue. In Greece it was estimated that 14% of the adult population was illiterate and in Portugal, 23%. At a unesco conference of African education ministers in Harare (Salisbury), Zimbabwe, in

July, Sema Tanguiane, unesco's assistant director general for education, said that the overall illitera¬ cy rate in Africa had declined to 60.6%. Nonethe¬ less, as with the world population, the actual number of illiterates on the continent had in¬ creased, to approximately 156 million. There were, however, some less gloomy figures to report. Illit¬ eracy in Ethiopia had declined from more than 90% in 1974 to 50%, and Zimbabwe and Tanzania had substantially increased school enrollments. For most of the advanced industrial countries of the West the problem of illiteracy had a low priori¬ ty. On the contrary, their principal concern was to contain and, if possible, reduce the cost of public education. There were, however, exceptions. In Europe both Norway and France increased their spending, notably on higher education, at a faster rate than inflation. In Denmark, Sweden, Switzer¬ land, and Austria the rate of increase was some¬ what less than that of inflation, and in Belgium, West Germany, The Netherlands, Ireland, and, especially, the United Kingdom it was very con¬ siderably below the rate of inflation. To some extent these differences reflected differ¬ ing economic and political philosophies. In the U.K. the Conservative Party government stated as one of its main objectives the “privatization" of the economy, and the minister of education declared that he was “intellectually attracted" by ideas of loans for students (unknown in Britain since World War II) and educational vouchers. On the other hand the Socialist government of French Pres. Frangois Mitterrand saw education as a driv¬ ing force for economic recovery and thus spent considerable public money on it. The new Swedish government espoused a similar policy. But both France and Sweden were affected by the recession and trimmed their spending accordingly. There was, in any case, some feeling that the ex¬ pansion of higher education had reached the point where excessive numbers of graduates were being produced. This applied not only to the West but also to the socialist countries of Eastern Europe. In the Soviet Union there were the beginnings of con¬ tainment of entry to higher education, especially in the universities, and Manfred Loetsch of the

Academy of Social Sciences in East Germany said in June that further expansion of higher education should be ended. In East Germany in 1982 as many as 20% were going on to higher education. Loetsch argued that the figure should be stabilized at no more than 25%. Expenditure on education continued to rise modestly in the Soviet Union and more rapidly in China, which was still emerging from the depre¬ dations of the Cultural Revolution. Most of the oilrich nations also continued to increase their spending. For example, in Saudi Arabia the share of total government expenditure allocated to edu¬ cation in the third five-year development plan (1980-85) was 18.5%, compared with 16% in the previous five-year plan. In the five years up to 1982, as many as five elementary schools had been opened in Saudi Arabia every week and one sec¬ ondary school every 11 days. As the 1982-83 school year opened, some 57,320,000 elementary, secondary, and college students were enrolled in the United States. That was a decrease of 522,000 students from the previ¬ ous year. Elementary and secondary students numbered 44.8 million, continuing the steady de¬ cline since 1970, when there were 51.3 million stu¬ dents in those grades. College students increased by 100,000 to a record enrollment of 12.5 million. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that private school enrollments, especially those of Roman Catholic systems, had declined markedly. Primary and Secondary Education. Almost all industrialized countries were afflicted by the con¬ sequences of falling birthrates, with the result that most governments were almost desperately seek¬ ing ways of reducing the number of teachers, both through systems of early retirement and by reduc¬ ing the number of teacher-training establish¬ ments. In Italy particularly generous terms were offered to teachers with 15 years or more of ser¬ vice, namely, to retire at 80% of salary. This led to something of an exodus of teachers from the schools. In the U.K. there were reductions in the number of teachers being trained. In The Nether¬ lands it was expected that there would be a loss of some 12,000 teaching posts in the period up to

329

Education

Bruce Brombacher, an eighth-grade teacher from Columbus, Ohio, was named 1982 Teacher of the Year. The national event is sponsored by the Encyclopaedia Britannica companies, Good Housekeeping magazine, and the Council of Chief State School Of¬ ficers. Brombacher is the first Ohio educator ever to win the award.

Ecumenical Move¬ ment:

see Religion WIDE WORLD

330

Education

1985, while in West Germany the reduction was expected to be on the order of 10,000 positions over the same period. A number of governments attempted to bring about a real reduction in teachers' salaries. In Den¬ mark the principal teachers' union called for a ban on overtime in July in order to protect teachers' jobs; at least 1,000 teachers there were expected to become unemployed because of declining enroll¬ ments. In the United Kingdom teachers' unions effectively prevented compulsory layoffs in 1982, although the projections for containing expendi¬ ture in 1983 suggested that they would soon be necessary. In the U.S. a cut of nearly 6% in federal support for elementary and secondary education followed the previous year's 8% reduction. Federal dollars going to education fell from $5,610,000,000 in 1981-82 to $5.3 billion in the 1982-83 school year. In keeping with Pres. Ronald Reagan's "new feder¬ alism," there was a shift in federal funding away from categorical grants (for specific, narrowly de¬ fined programs) to block grants —distributed to the states on the basis of population — for use in broad, general areas. The result was to give the states considerably more discretion as to how the money was to be spent. However, for the 30 educa¬ tional programs that were combined into block grants, total federal funding declined from $535 million to $484 million. Hardest hit by the cutbacks would be districts that had large numbers of students targeted by the federal programs —the economically disadvan¬ taged, the handicapped, and the non-Englishspeaking. Bilingual education was cut by 15% and vocational education by 4%. It was estimated that by the time President Reagan's proposed educa¬ tion policies were fully implemented, the federal

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in June that every handicapped child did not necessarily have to be provided with special as¬ sistance to reach full aca¬ demic potential. The court ruled that a school district in Peekskill, New York, was not required to pro¬ vide a sign-language inter¬ preter for Amy Rowley, who is deaf.

JAMES NACHTWEY/THE NEW YORK TIMES

contribution to education would have been halved and the influence of the federal government in the area of education would have been reduced signifi¬ cantly. Federal officials pointed out, however, that the federal component of local school budgets was relatively small and that, overall, the proportion of local school budgets funded by the federal gov¬ ernment only fell from 8.7% in 1981 to 8.2% in 1982. The Reagan administration concluded that forced busing was ineffective. It explored the idea of assisting school districts that sought to modify busing plans that were not working. At the same time, the administration said that it was not re¬ versing basic policy and was only seeking better, voluntary means of encouraging desegregation. The Department of Justice did not undertake any desegregation action during the first 20 months of the Reagan administration. However, the U.S. Civil Rights Commission strongly endorsed the continuation of mandatory busing to desegregate schools. The Northeast trailed the rest of the U.S. in pro¬ moting school integration, according to a report to the House of Representatives. The Joint Center for Political Studies told a House committee that be¬ tween 1968 and 1980 the Southern and border states made great progress in achieving integration in the classroom. By 1970 the South was the least segregated region for U.S. blacks. The Northeast had become the most segregated area. The Center reported that segregation of Hispanics had in¬ creased in each region. In its first opinion of the law that provided "free and appropriate" education to handicapped chil¬ dren and youth, the U.S. Supreme Court said that provisions for the handicapped could be limited. In their opinion on the Education for All Handi¬ capped Children Act of 1975, the justices conclud¬ ed that the Congress intended that education be accessible to the handicapped but did not intend a specific type of education — nor that it necessarily be equal to that provided other children. A Texas law prohibiting the free education of children of illegal aliens was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court. State officials estimated that 5% of the Texas population was there illegally. Texas had the only law in the U.S. limiting the free education of the children of illegal aliens. The law required exclusion of the children or the payment of tuition for them. A court majority held that without education the children would suffer a life¬ time of hardship. (See Law.) The Reagan administration changed the role of the Internal Revenue Service in denying tax ex¬ emptions to private schools that practice racial dis¬ crimination. The Department of Justice said that the irs simply does not have the legal right to deny exemptions. The department denied that its action signaled a retreat on the enforcement of civil rights. The U.S. Supreme Court decided that when a school district bans certain books and thus de¬ prives students' access to ideas, those students have the right to take their case to federal courts. The Nassau County, N.Y., school board had re¬ moved some books from library shelves, an act

World Education Most recent official data 1st level (primary) Students (full-time)

Teachers (full-time)

1,006,094 4,600,000 1,388,110 4,003,670 1,871,617 401,396 48,406 8,219,313 5,878 904,874 179,564 22,025,449 31,677 70,125 3,731,160 1,302,974 3,313,231 2,139,319 143,330,000 4,337,607 383,018 347,708 1,409,765 64,274 1,930,634 448.370 1,427,627 4,434,557 900,623 127,325 583,450 4,609,422 2,250,918s 2,783,867 922,698 826,613 582,612 539,545 1,213,500 70,949,386 22,487,053 4,403,106 2,609,182 568,364 574,741 4,335,911 888,728 11,901,526 448,411 5,586,494 125,114 441,000 388,482 244,838 206,876 656,541 27,927 779,676 2,033,803 293,227 123,666 14,282,908 2,331,000 1,376,865 1,067,900 1,425,770 493,856 472,167 12,554,222 591,323 7,090,000 335,239 288,287 504,377 3,161,400 8,112,536 4,341,800 470,089 3,308,462 607,480 930,436 392,541 289,697 4,480,493 34,400,000 6,788,877 1,975,749 1,435,127 75,139 119,913 565,146 1,450,045 2,202,904 7,242,123 484,272 1,045,011 5,622,000 1,223,850 5,164,000 23,736,62526 326,235 2,456,203 33,021 1,422,871 5,200,000 980,406 1,934,614

32,937 88,481 25,000 224,679 91,386 26,369 2,963 187,504 320 41,878 5,316 862,282 1,800 4,514 84,593 25,248 271,034s 66,354 2,600,000 139,277 6,852 10,536 83,113 2,862 90,282 40,261 39,825 137,045 16,563 4,435 38,311 235,415 168,849s 451,894s 35,750 24,242 16,612 17,972 78,053 1,311,931 665,264 154,577 92,603 20,068 29,940 285,908 21,640 475,037 13,898 122,727 6,936 14,416 33,245s6 4,782 5,090 30,489 1,449 11,552 73,881 6,877 6,177 353,538 55,303 8,751 27,805 66,026 20,402 13,318 309,597 30,818 139,300 12,598 9,280 18,038 77,844 252,338 224,500 23,154 156,817 10,002 50,010 8,479 11,108 164,1493-® 2,638,000s 228,307 138,488s 41,726 2,803 3,586 140,600®* 49,431 69,143 283,204 8,920 26,989 199,245 36,442 225,700 1,184,9392-6 13,698 82,226 1,913s 58,742 80,481 19,868 33,516

Country Afghanistan Algeria Angola Argentina Australia Austria Bahrain Bangladesh Bermuda Bolivia Botswana Brazil Brunei Bulgaria Burma Cameroon Canada Chile China Colombia Congo Costa Rica Cuba Cyprus Czechoslovakia Denmark Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Fiji Finland France Germany, East Germany, West Greece Guatemala Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Ivory Coast Japan Jordan Korea, South Kuwait Laos Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Luxembourg Malawi Malaysia Mali Mauritius Mexico Morocco Mozambique Nepal Netherlands, The New Zealand Nicaragua Nigeria Norway Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Puerto Rico Romania Rwanda Saudi Arabia Senegal Singapore South Africa Soviet Union Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Swaziland Sweden Syria Taiwan Thailand Togo Tunisia Turkey Uganda United Kingdom United States Uruguay Venezuela Western Samoa Yugoslavia Zaire Zambia Zimbabwe

' Includes teacher training.

1 Public schools only.

General 2nd level (secondary) Total schools 4,146 9,2632 5,585 24,843 8,180 3,466 114 40,313 22 7,890 415 192.723 175 776 23,099 4,721 15,392s 8,220 900,000 32,230 1,310 3,041 11,771 604 6,612 2,263 10,655 10,604 3,103 656 4,853 51,440 12.2332 23,766s 9,593 7,708 5,568 790 3,800 478,249 105,485 40,197 10,560 3,494 1,808 29,785 2,697 25,043 1,095 6,517 180 5,918 2,144 1,081 1,151 2,539 541 2,371 6,461 1,263 257 70,797 2,498 5,709 7,275 9,690 2,808 4,421 36,287 3,518 58,398 2,316 2,077 3,425 20,776 33,180 13,926 2,237s 14,381 1,573 4,983 1,493 342 2,511s 73,700 216,653 3,588 5,729 285 470 4,923s 7,594 2,428 32,956 2,000 2,613 44,098 4,294

2,301 12,753 13,119 5,924 2,809 2,548

Students (full-time) 116,714 999,937 153.0003 1.295.8153 1.115.7823 549,061 23,727 2.763.8721'3 4,215 210.3853 19,129 2,667,359’3 16,805 1,064,383 924,739 153,618 1,709,798 392,940 48,596,000 1,879,118^3 148,857 103,579 918,629 54,206 149,210 61,757 475,857 1,994,514 29,436 35,238 341,054 5,183,341 5,950,897 585,130 171,90313 125.0183 444,718 209,300 28,372,339 4,364,598 2,370,341 897,001 293,809 181,094 3,482,521 172.280’-3 10.224.5291'3 238,763 3,580,258 152,578 67,553 238,773 23,355 51,231 257,479 9,100 16,431 1,102,908 64,491 80,881 3,729,916 826,500 135,956 512,4001-3 823,730 224,926 120,522 1,597,877 183,6643 1,996,000 129,787 37,068 110,0953 1,306,400 2.917.9123 392,900 337,153 979,741 7,112 377,681 80,146 177,238 1,225,153 9,900,000 1,091,197 1,159,967 340,238 29,790 24,826 466,818 549,577 1,620,1653 1,489,939 119,801 210,895 1,711,000 66,730 4,574,000s 16,417,6803 172,969 758,9363 19,299 1,880,888 680,000 91,709 224,609

3 Includes vocational.

Teachers (full-time) 4,903 38,845 4,3933 178.6813 86,3643 45,213 951 111.927’-3 362 9,9743 844 183.476’-3 1,326 61,154 31,433 5,112 24,387 85,938’-3 3,148 4,263 87,703 13,380 8,918 44,642 24,120 77,095 2,8443 1,766 19,530 349,743

26,921 9,613’-3 4,4173 15,9273 15,966 1,694,651 261,864 91,960 27,987 18,457 14,434 276,987 4,026 517.7441-3 11,267 87,974 13,460 2,996 940 2,974 16,526 1,8033 779 48,199 3,075 212,118 33,696 3,789 16.376’-3 54,369 13,527 3,1453 50,952 14,9393 115,600 6,331 1,559 9.8303 37,383 104,6573 22,500 13,297 46,500 9031-3 24,866 2,934 8,807

66,160 15,078 1,854 1,433 29,931 70.6683 66,965 2,855 12,629 67,235 3,108 274,100s 996.0773 13,980 47.4961-3 129.176’-3 14,48313 3,539 6,107

“Teacher training only.

Vocational 2nd level Total schools 317 1,1282 177 4,9523 1,553 2,023 21 9.4261-3 13 2,7723 38 7,133’3 27 2,774 1,898 301 700 160,000 3,252 122 225 827 117 336 2,516 990 2,450 171 137 1,056 11,147 5,906 2,162 753 254 386 531 152,139 13,219 7,667 1,579 822 651 31,524 16,09213 1,333 2,955 206 257 96 275 1,156 65 970 15 148 9,138 644 138 1,525 396 259 1,4193 8,989 189 99 2,456 2,4452 1,201 971 56 1,617 89 144 56,200 2,445 5,501 1,701 96 86 1,285 1,0233 2,249

Students (full-time)

Teachers (full-time)

3rd level (higher) Total schools

16,784 26,2181 2,0054

1,211 2.2921 1734

28 712 73

25,2194 150.3561 2.8461

2.7064 14,9111 2331

1,146’ 5’

16.2064 3.2381

2.4094 3181

39* 25’

1.2841 207,011 14.7391 53.2381

2121 17,976 1,156® 1.9721

6’ 524 68’ 164’

161,809 2,220,000

4,176

277 2,000’

10,3611 30,229 356,1331 7.6041 244,1331 247,457’ 59,588 598,450’ 48,6711 3,1861 143.2771 1,089,439 459,485 610,400 125,039

6071 2,056 22,6151 7611 17.3531 5.7921 5,951 34.7821 254 4511 13.5471 60,239 16,355 35,798

36’ 74 445’ 22’ 554’ 271 221 466’ 944 39’ 541’ 2314 1,214 5,350 1,991

4.2504 11,485 157,400 421.0281 802,0131 314,1351 72.9861 6,792 82,173 1,816,9411

1524

14 20 328’ 2,045’ 2,638’ 950’ 155’ 47 376 5,334’

10,700 14,024 67,3121 13.0291 4.7001 202 8,596 149.0031 7071

9)880 827,579 7.1481 9.0601 29.9601 1.9621 2.0231 40,1451 16.1021 2.9321 17,424 4.8701 7211 555,1001 26.1681

641 25,573 1.2201 6831 3,1611 1601 801 2.7901

44 621 34’ 47’

1991 1,430 6661 611 38.7721 8474

13’ 37 3 3’ 2,888’

571,2091 150.9761 19,2211 299,6781 13.6964

50,100’ 2.7551 554 19,059’ 1,0634

1,870’ 29’ 81’ 402’ 304

44,2911 5.9491

2,284’ 419’

118’ 97’

202,100’

6,4224

682’

1.729.0001 60,045 182.9941 5.0561 21.9671 9,091 13,001 29,591 4,612,0001 558,808 8.8971 17.9541 5.6691 538 103,485 33,9611

82,300 2,600 3,611’

6,310 84 903’ 62 88 124’ 17 153 4,800 2,142 254 60’ 44 1 526 77’

2,347’ 578 889 231,300’ 36,556 1,771’ 1,379’ 397’ 65 4,129’

236 5,062 118

287,4741 8.0931 64.2381 538,9881 12.1851

18.720’-2 348’ 1284 30,098’ 648’

259 1,447 39 5,905 2,511 125 177

50.4281 31.5184 264 532,7621 184.8991 9.6901 9,7011

4,541’ 44

881’ 536’

6 Data for primary include secondary.

12’ 6’ 129’

356’ 21’ 1,718’ 50’

105’ 4 1,630’ 26’

Students (full-time) 21,118 57,208 4,746 475,799 331,678 123,463 3,650 154,496 575 178,217 928 1,770,917 143 72,386 112,671 11,901 675,430 118,978 1,280,000 271,302 4,767 55,378 165,496 1,875 152,584 104,978 274,968 550,171 32,058 2,760 88,244 853,532 385,600 1,192,755 99,713 34,301 24,601 41,327 63,400 4,296,242 397,485 175,675 98,327 41,928 91,180 719,449 12,765 2,238,831 27,526 734,900 11,621 1,684 78,628 1,048 3,789 14,351 232 1,620 57,139 4,789 470 698,139 98,515 1,852 39,900 280,948 31,549 34,710 115,166 40,620 349,259 43,199 2,637 25,232 249,800 1,129,056 386,500 130,105 192,769 1,134 54,397 11,852 24,156 218,275 5,235,500 649,098 17,485 26,883 2,353 1,603 158,101 95,575 358,437 288,101 3,638 31,827 270,000 6,720 330,619 12,300,000 39,392 282,074 388 447,270 35,000 9,192 2,525

Teachers (full-time) 817 7,401 333 45,089 33,172 11,792 159 15,784 63 6,179 113 109,788 57 11,579 3,922 439 54,990 11,419 25,708 254 1,967 10,736 186 18,624 6,713 11.998 23,390 2,556 166 6,194 41,978 36,773 169,050 7,077 2,845 1,507 3,025 13,843 235,822 46,668 15,453 5,464 3,983 48,118 580 128,039 1,178 23,750 1,157 152 2,313 162 190 1,922 168 203 5,569 488 76 57,659 2,558 224 2,311 28,500 3,043 1,204 5,748 3,652 19,878 3,035 419 1,984 13,468 38,226 55,450 3,300 14,592 213 5,946 571 2,226 16,708 345,000 40,321 2,498 1,934 155 267 1,332 17,452 22,261 291 3,869 20,643 677 43,017 860,000 3,263 23,451 54 23,969 2,782 412 483

6 Includes preprimary education.

Literacy Total schools 29 1 1,001 156 37 2 700 1 548 1 882 1 44 35 10 66 15 598 70 1 4 28 13 42 358 30 12 14 1 21 82 290 3,147 157 3 23 57 9,805 389 244 62 58 51 67 2 1,043 31 232 1 3 15 9 3 19 2 2 34 6 1 236 19 55 373 15 4 77 134 554 2 3 2 33 91 27 44 4 17 130 4 106 883 120 15 2 3 8 104 12 2 331 4

1 68 6 349 36 1

% of pop - Over ulation age 28.6 26.4 15.0 92.6 98.5 98.0 63.4 25.8 99.9 40 0 37.5 83.0 77.8 95.0 69.7 47.4 95.6 90.8 95.0 98.5 28.8 84,0 98.0 89.0 99.5 100.0 79.0 45.7 49.0 79.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.0 86.0 36.7 59.5 80.9 98.2 36.1 72.0 36.1 52.0 100.0 93.4 94.0 41.2 100.0 60.0 94.3 59.6 41.0 88.0 60.0 25.4 52.4 100.0 16.5 60.8 2.2 84.6 78.8 22.2 27.5 12.5 100.0 100.0 87.0 29.9 100.0 26.7 84.6 30.4 80.0 76.0 89.7 98.0 90.5 100.0 49.5 25.0 45.6 77.9 89.0 100.0 90.1 82.0 68.6 65.0 22.0 100.0 61.5 85.9 81.8 54.9 25.0 54.7 47.9 100.0 100.0 93.9 84.9 98.3 83.5 57.9 40.7 70.8

5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 8 15 10 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 15 15 15 7 15 15 15 15 10 15 15 15 10 15 15 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 15 10 10 15 10 15 14 8 15 14 10 15 15 10 15 15 10 15 10 14 6 15 15 15 15 15 10 15 15 15 15

SKELTON/DALLAS TIMES HERALD

A Texas state law, which held that the children of illegal aliens were not en¬ titled to public school education unless they paid an annual tuition of $1,000, was overturned in June by the U.S. Supreme Court. The court ruled that Texas could not treat these students differently from others even though they resided illegally in the U.S.

that could be challenged on First Amendment grounds, said the court. The justices did not pro¬ vide specific guidelines for the trial, which was to be heard in the U.S. 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals. Few teachers' strikes marked the opening of school in the U.S. Teachers in Detroit staged the largest, with 9,880 teachers out of classes and 200,000 students at home. In Teaneck, N.J., strik¬ ing teachers were "jailed" in a school for two days for defying a judge's order to return to their jobs. Scattered strikes took place in other Michigan com¬ munities and in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana. The number of teachers affected in those states was about the same as in Detroit. In some cases teachers worked without contracts. Key is¬ sues in negotiations were economic —pay freezes or reductions, layoffs, and job security. Layoffs of teachers increased. The teachers' unions estimated that 40,000-55,000 teachers were laid off for the 1982-83 school year, more than 20% higher than in 1981-82. The American Federation of Teachers said that it was the worst year ever for firings. After a long decline and a leveling off in 1981 of Scholastic Aptitude Test scores, there was a 3% improvement in 1982. Approximately one million high-school seniors take the test each year to help colleges determine who will be admitted. The pro¬ ducers of the test claimed that it measures general intellectual aptitude and predicts academic success in college. Educators believed that the rise in sat scores was an indication that the general quality of the schools had improved. In regard to the school curriculum, the biggest disturbance of the year was caused by the revised textbooks published by the Japanese Education Ministry for the school year starting April 1983. The changes in the secondary-school history books led to severe condemnation, particularly in China and South Korea. In describing Japanese action in China before and during World War II, the Japa¬ nese textbook writers had replaced such words as "aggression" and "invasion" with the more innoc¬ uous "advance." The textbooks also were said to have deleted or glossed over atrocities committed by Japanese troops and Japan's oppressive pre-1945 colonial rule of Korea. Both China and South Korea lodged official complaints, demanding correction

of the textbook changes. The president of the Japan Teachers' Union, Motofumi Makieda, was one of the most outspoken critics, not only of those par¬ ticular amendments but of Japan's textbook autho¬ rization methods. Agreement was finally reached with the concerned countries that the "errors" would be corrected. (See Japan.) There was also a report in August of differences of opinion between West German and U.S. histori¬ ans about the postwar images of their respective countries presented in textbooks. The evidence came from the Georg Eckert Institute, which since 1979 had coordinated annual meetings of histori¬ ans from West Germany and the U.S. The com¬ plaint on the West German side was that U.S. schoolchildren were presented with an image of Germany as it was during the era of Adolf Hitler and that little was written about Germany after the Hitler era. U.S. historians complained that German history books concentrated on the Vietnam war and on Watergate and other scandals. In both Hungary and Romania serious doubts were expressed about secondary-school reforms. In Hungary the school reforms of 1972 reduced failure rates in secondary schools by lowering standards, and there was, in addition, a drive to recruit pu¬ pils into vocational schools. Indeed, by 1982 some 80% of the secondary school population was in vocational education. The Central Committee of the Socialist Workers' (Communist) Party called in April for the remedying of the "hasty" reforms of 1972, and a new development program for educa¬ tion was promised for 1983. In Romania a similar trend toward vocational education followed a 1978 reform, and with it a demotion of academic sub¬ jects. Again, there was a call to remedy the situation. There were moves among Muslim populations, in the U.K. and West Germany especially, to intro¬ duce an Islamic form of education. Proposals were made in London to introduce an Islamic school, particularly for Pakistani Muslims, and concern was expressed in West Berlin about the growth of private schools teaching the Koran for Turks. As many as 30 had been established in West Berlin with the aim, so it was argued, of re-islamicizing Turks along the lines advocated by Iran's Ayatol¬ lah Ruhollah Khomeini. Since there were about 1.5 million Turkish workers in West Germany, there was some alarm. Meanwhile, in Turkey the twoyear-old military government proposed to make religious education — that is to say, Islam —a com¬ pulsory subject in schools. This, however, was not seen as part of the Islamic revival in the Middle East but rather as an attempt to ensure that reli¬ gion was taught properly. Administrative changes were less frequently re¬ ported than in past years, although there were underlying moves in the U.K. toward more help for private schools and in Australia to increase the federal government's spending on private schools by 7.7%, as against 2% for government schools. In The Netherlands proposals were made in Septem¬ ber to change the three-year basic secondary school after the age of 15, so that there would be a choice, of sorts, between a general (three years) and a vocational course (of two, three, or four

years). In Nigeria there was a change from fiveyear secondary schools to three-year junior sec¬ ondary schools followed by three-year senior secondary schools. Critics in Nigeria said that this was an ineffective reform, since there were no workshops or technical teachers. The government, however, argued that the reform would work since it would be phased in over three years. A major preoccupation in many parts of the world was with the plight of those aged 15-18, especially in those countries where they were not provided with full-time education. A report of the European Community on unemployment and vo¬ cational training published in October said that of the 11 million jobless in the EC countries, 4 million were under 25. The European Commission pro¬ posed that every 16-year-old should be offered at least two years in further education or in vocation¬ al training, with work experience. But it was in the less developed countries that progress in schooling was slowest, although their needs were greatest. There was some criticism of the World Bank's lending policy to less developed countries in regard to basic education, which it was accused of neglecting. World Bank lending on basic education had, however, grown from 5% of the total education loans in 1970-74 to 24% by 1979-83. The familiar argument within the World Bank had been that the Bank was at its best when its lending involved the "transfer of technology." This, it was said, happened least in loans for basic education. Nonetheless, the Bank appeared to have recognized that money spent on basic educa¬ tion could have a powerful role in facilitating local¬ ly developed solutions to the chronic difficulties of rural schools. Higher Education. Federal funds to colleges and universities in the United States were cut by 17%, from $5,540,000,000 to $4,570,000,000. The aid provided for loans to students, construction, and a variety of other kinds of support. Overriding a presidential veto, the U.S. Congress appropriated $169 million more for financial aid for college stu¬ dents. The additional money ensured full funding for student loan programs. Students in the U.S. found on the average that going to college in 1982-83 cost 11% more than in 1981-82, according to the College Board. The aver¬ age per-year cost of attending a public four-year college was estimated at $4,388, while expenses for those in private four-year colleges averaged $7,475. U.S. colleges raised tuition and other direct costs for students. The situation for students worsened as women found it more difficult to find jobs to help pay for their children's educational expenses. A study of the Education Commission of the states found that most education and state officials ex¬ pected state appropriations to trail inflation. This would require higher tuitions, which were al¬ ready rising about 15% per year, according to the National Association of Student Financial Aid Ad¬ ministrators. State-supported schools provided education for some 78% of U.S. college students. College enrollments in the U.S. could drop by 15% by the mid-1990s, according to a study con¬ ducted by the Brookings Institution. The decline

would result from the fall in births and the subse¬ quent decrease in high-school graduates. For three decades colleges in the U.S. had experienced unin¬ terrupted growth. The college graduating class in the U.S. in 1983 would be the largest ever. It would also be the most diverse in regard to student backgrounds, would be divided almost equally between men and wom¬ en, and would have more older students. The number of persons planning to enter graduate schools was expected to decline. In what two dissenting judges branded "benign neglect" of earlier government pressures to deseg¬ regate state education systems, a U.S. Court of Ap¬ peals upheld a North Carolina-U.S. Department of Education settlement. The decade-long case was settled when the state agreed to provide new pro¬ grams at historically black colleges. In a change of policy the state was permitted to leave duplicate programs intact in nearby white institutions. The traditional open-door admissions policies of U.S. junior and community colleges began to change. The schools began to establish entrance requirements and to drop students who did not maintain acceptable academic standards. China began 1982 with 704 higher education es¬ tablishments, 270 more than in 1965, just before the start of the Cultural Revolution. There were then 606,000 students; in 1982 the number had increased to 1,280,000. The demand for graduates remained more than twice the supply. The new Chinese minister of education. He Dongchang (Ho Tung-ch'ang), -called for more diversification of higher education, including more two-year practi¬ cal courses. In the West it was only in France that there was conspicuous growth. In 1982 the higher education budget was up 15% from the previous year. In March the Claude Jeanette Commission was estab¬ lished by the minister of education, Alain Savary, to draw up a framework for a new higher educa¬ tion law. Savary also spelled out the expectations of the French government for higher education. First was a contribution to combat the recession through teaching and research; the second expec¬ tation comprised ways of developing those indus¬ trial sectors that would be important in the future, such as biotechnology and computers; the third was collaboration between universities and re¬ search bodies; and the fourth was increased effec¬ tiveness in spreading new knowledge to the population as a whole. In West Germany, although student numbers continued to increase, there was growing criticism of the inefficiency of the whole system. In May Ralf Dahrendorf, director of the London School of Economics and formerly a leading liberal politician in West Germany, attacked the German universi¬ ties at the annual conference of university vicechancellors at Konstanz, West Germany. He said that in 1978 West Germany had 15 students per 1,000 inhabitants, compared with 12 in France and 7 in Britain. But in West Germany there were only 1.39 graduations per 1,000 inhabitants, compared with 1.76 in Britain and 1.79 in France. In Italy student numbers continued to decline. The 2 million enrollments in Italian universities in

333

Education

334

Education

Students protesting a re¬ duction in funds for edu¬ cating the handicapped demonstrated in front of the federal building in Se¬ attle, Washington, where the U.S. Department of Education was holding hearings on the proposed cutback.

1978 had been reduced to 1.3 million in 1981-82. The "mass" universities of the 1970s seemed to be disappearing. In August the Italian Parliament passed a reform bill allowing university rectors to close departments or divisions if enrollment in them rose to more than 4,500 students. Pressure on the higher education system was at its greatest in Greece; during the year 100,000 can¬ didates presented themselves to Greece's higher education institutions. The seven universities and six graduate schools took 15,000 of them; the voca¬ tional colleges 25,000; and 10,000 went abroad. Greece had a far higher proportion of students abroad than any other European country, 20% compared with an average of less than 1 % for other members of the European Community. In Canada the number of students in Quebec was allowed to go on rising. Although the Quebec government cut funds to universities, student en¬ rollments continued to increase. The government took the view that the universities must become more productive. In practice this led to a dispute over the allocation of funds between the newer universities, attracting a new class of Frenchspeaking students, and some of the older institutions. Several governments declared a need to create more productive institutions. There was much ar¬ gument in the U.K. about the need to reduce the security of tenure held by university teachers. In France, Savary announced something of a crack¬ down on absentee university teachers. The univer¬ sity academic year was to be lengthened from 25 to

1

pi

32 weeks, and professors were required to increase the number of lectures they gave per annum from 75 to 96. There was, unhappily, ample evidence of inter¬ ference with freedom of inquiry in many parts of the world. In Israel there was serious trouble in the three West Bank universities —Al-Najah, BirZeit, and Bethlehem — over the official demand that teachers refrain from any kind of support for the Palestine Liberation Organization. One hundred foreign teachers in the universities, including 30 from the U.S. and 10 from Great Britain, com¬ plained of interference with the right of free ex¬ pression. The University of Nairobi in Kenya was actually closed down in September because during August students had taken part in an abortive coup against Pres. Daniel arap Moi. The concept of an open university, pioneered in the U.K., continued to have some influence. The first such university in India was opened in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh in August. It was intended chiefly to help with nonformal edu¬ cation for the rural population. In India, also, the National Adult Education Program, which had been initiated by the Janata Party government in 1978, was given a further lease on life by the gov¬ ernment of Indira Gandhi. The original intention was that 100 million illiterates in the 15-35 age group should become literate by 1983-84. Mrs. Gandhi's government took a more realistic ap¬ proach, and the target date was deferred to 1990. (JOEL L. BURDIN; TUDOR DAVID)

See also Libraries; Motion Pictures.

'1

WIDE WORLD

Education: Special Report

THE PROMISE OF EARLY LEARNING by James M. Wolf

Interest and support for early learning have been expressed by philosophers and scholars throughout history. Comenius, in the 17th century, espoused the teaching of all knowledge to the child and advo¬ cated the “School of the Mother's Knee." John Locke, whose thinking dominated the 18th century, wrote, “I have always had a fancy that learning might be made play and recreation for young chil¬ dren." Lord Henry Brougham in 1828 argued that the child can and does learn more before the age of six than during any other period in his life. However, it was not until the late 1950s and 1960s that evi¬ dence and experience were accumulated to support Lord Brougham's notion that children can learn more and more rapidly from birth to age six than at any other period in their lives. Two books are frequently cited as catalysts for the revolution in early learning that began at that time. Joseph McVicker Hunt's Intelligence and Experi¬ ence (1961) documented the importance of ade¬ quate environmental stimulation for a child's opti¬ mal development. Benjamin Bloom's classic Stability and Change in Human Characteristics (1964) demonstrated that there is a growth curve for each human characteristic. For example, half of a child's future height is reached by age two and a half. By the time a child enters school at age six, he has developed as much as two-thirds of the intelli¬ gence he will have at maturity. As a result of these findings, a wide variety of experimental early childhood programs emerged to challenge the older concepts of child development. The idea of fixed intelligence was no longer a ten¬ able theory. Bloom found that extreme environ¬ ments—either very favourable or underprivileged — could affect the development of intelligence during the first four years of life. According to Hunt, the lames M. Wolf is Director of the U.S. Department of Defense Dependents Schools, Panama Region.

preschool years, especially the first four, appear to be highly important for the achievement of initia¬ tive, trust, compassion, curiosity, and intelligence. The Pathfinders. In 1967 Maya Pines published her epochal book Revolution in Learning. It is his¬ torically significant because it was written for par¬ ents and summarized the work of many of the path¬ finders in early learning. Pines discussed such projects as the talking typewriter experiment, in which Omar Moore taught some 60 children as young as three and four to read, write, and compose poetry. Theamericanization of Montessori methods was also described, particularly the work of Nancy Rambusch at the Whitby School in Connecticut, where she demonstrated the learning potential of three- and four-year-olds from advantaged homes. Bettye Caldwell's work in children's centres where six-month-old babies received cognitive training demonstrated that culturally determined mental re¬ tardation in young babies was reversible. Two of the more controversial pathfinders were Carl Bereiter and Siegfried Engelmann, who developed a special preschool program for disadvantaged children that enabled them to start first grade on an equal footing with more privileged children. Efforts to aid children and adults with deviant conditions frequently provide insights and ap¬ proaches that can be used for enrichment of the socalled normal child. Glenn Doman and his col¬ leagues, pioneers in the treatment of brain-injured children, have applied their concept and findings about neurological dysorganization in brain-im¬ paired children to the enhancement of neurological organization in the average and superior child. The mastery of reading skills is one of the intervention strategies Doman uses in the treatment of very young brain-injured children. His book How to Teach Your Baby to Read has been used successful¬ ly by mothers of nonimpaired children throughout the world and is now published in 15 languages. Syl¬ via Ashton-Warner in New Zealand is another path¬ finder in early reading. Teaching young children to read is a controversial topic among U.S. educators. Some still oppose the practice of having a parent engage in systematized reading instruction with preschool children. Skepti¬ cism is also expressed by some teachers, who sur¬ mise that learning to read at home interferes with the method used in school and that most children are not ready for reading before the age of six. Too often, it is said, early reading efforts are the result of parental anxieties and pressure and serve primarily to satisfy the parent's ego. In addition, teaching pre¬ schoolers to read is an infringement on their pre¬ cious childhood. However, these statements are more myth than fact. 335

The Confirmers. Beginning in the mid-1960s, ear¬ ly learning and early childhood enrichment became acceptable to greater numbers of parents and educa¬ tors. However, there was a need for research to cor¬ roborate the pathfinders' results—to confirm the as¬ sertion that early learning is beneficial to all children. Federal programs provided the major source for confirmation of early learning among children from low-income families. In 1965 Pres. Lyndon Johnson hailed Head Start, an early education program, as the principal weapon in his administration's attempt to achieve a Great Society. The results of a national evaluation released by the Westinghouse Learning Corp. and Ohio University in 1969 came close to de¬ stroying Head Start and discrediting the concept of early learning and intervention. However, The Car¬ negie Quarterly notes, in an article entitled “New Optimism About Preschool Education," that “. . . recent studies based on new data or reanalysis of the old suggest that the Westinghouse conclusions were premature. . . . Preschool education [early learning] apparently gives youngsters a lasting effect over their peers who get no special help. . . ." Other research findings have supported this state¬ ment. In 1977 Irving Lazar of Cornell University completed his compilation of data from 14 longitu¬ dinal studies of children from low-income families who participated in Head Start programs. The find¬ ings indicate that, as compared with control groups, children who participated in early childhood and family development programs were placed in reme¬ dial special education classes less often, were held back in a grade less often, scored higher on intelli¬ gence tests, and were superior in social, emotional, cognitive, and language development after entering school. In a chapter on “Enrichment of Early Child¬ hood Experiences," Caldwell and her associates de¬ scribe projects that started intervention before age three and that also provide evidence of the effec¬ tiveness of these programs in modifying intellectual development. The Advocates and Resource Materials. Joan Beck was among the first journalists to make a case for early learning. In her book How to Raise a Brighter Child, she wrote about the pathfinders in early learning and detailed how all parents can raise their child's useful level of intelligence significantly by the ways in which they care for him or her during the first six years of life. Siegfried Engelmann and his wife, Therese, drawing on their extensive experi¬ ence with preschool children, developed a pro¬ grammed step-by-step guide for parents called Give Your Child a Superior Mind. In a 1982 issue of the Elementary School Journal, Richard Norton and Doman wrote: “The potential 336

of the young human brain, whether injured or intact, is virtually unlimited and varies inversely with age. Given proper informational, social, nutritional, and emotional nourishment (e.g., speaking, understand¬ ing, reading, writing), most children are capable of functioning at the level which is called gifted." The authors propose that an “. . . entire new generation of 'gifted' children is possible." Doman has devel¬ oped a program on How to Multiply Your Baby's Intelligence in which parents are taught how to teach their infants to read, do math, do gymnastics, play the violin, and speak a foreign language. A group of child development specialists at the Princeton Center for Infancy have condensed the viewpoints of leading experts from over 800 books on child-rearing practices in a complete and easyto-use guide entitled The Parenting Advisor. There are also a number of newsletters that deal with early learning. One of the most interesting, produced monthly by Dennis Dunn and Edwin Hargitt, is called Growing Child, with a supplement issue called Crowing Parent. It should be noted that there is no one method of achieving the goals of early learning, but these materials contain many use¬ ful and practical ideas. The Future. Early learning is an idea whose time has come. Methods now exist to increase the intelli¬ gence, creativity, and sociability of all children. However, like most new knowledge, it has the po¬ tential for misuse and abuse, and it must be applied with loving care and joyfulness. Early learning, to be successful, must be made "play and recreation" for babies and young children. Research on early learning during the past two decades has produced exciting findings on how to teach very young children. The next two decades will produce refinements and a new set of chal¬ lenges. New knowledge gained from brain research will provide more definition for the frequency, du¬ ration, and intensity of appropriate early learning activities. This new knowledge will also provide more specific information on the relationship be¬ tween nutrition and brain chemistry. Although the "School of the Mother's Knee" will never be com¬ pletely replaced, advancements in technology will affect early learning techniques. The transformation of the ordinary television set into a home-entertain¬ ment and educational centre and the proliferation of home computers will offer new opportunities for research and innovative home programs in early learning. Most important, in the decade ahead, early learning will become more accepted and will be demanded by parents and professionals as a com¬ mon practice to be applied during the first years of life to ensure that all children come closer to reach¬ ing and expanding their potential.

Egypt A republic of northeast Africa, Egypt is bounded by Israel, Sudan, Libya, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Red Sea. Area: 997,667 sq km (385,201 sq mi). Pop. (1982 est.): 45 million. Cap. and largest city: Cairo (pop., 1979 est., 5,399,000). Language: Arabic. Religion (1980 est.): Muslim 81.8%; Chris¬ tian 17.8%; atheist 0.4%. President in 1982, Hosni Mubarak; prime ministers, Hosni Mubarak and, from January 2, Ahmad Fuad Mohieddin. During 1982 Pres. Hosni Mubarak's strong per¬ sonality enabled him to steer Egypt back toward the Arab fold while retaining the confidence of Western leaders, particularly U.S. Pres. Ronald Reagan. At home his grim economic inheritance proved a heavy burden. Although much emphasis had been put on economic reform since the assassi¬ nation on Oct. 6, 1981, of Pres. Anwar as-Sadat, little had materialized by the end of 1982. The trade gap widened during the year, and remit¬ tances from Egyptians working in other nations fell. On January 2 President Mubarak appointed Ahmad Fuad Mohieddin to the post of prime min¬ ister; Mubarak himself had held the office since he assumed the presidency in October 1981. The day after his appointment the new prime minister an¬ nounced a reshuffled and enlarged Cabinet, in which the most important reorganizations in¬ volved the economic portfolios. Muhammad Abdel Fattah Ibrahim, governor of the central bank and a former minister of finance in the mid-1970s, was named as deputy prime minister responsible for economy and finance and minister for internation¬ al investment and cooperation. He replaced Abderrazzak Abdel Meguid, who was dropped from the Cabinet. Along with another minister, Abdel Me¬ guid had been named in a corruption case; both were later cleared of suspicion by the attorney general. The reshuffle was widely interpreted as a tempo¬ rary measure, since Ibrahim was suffering from poor health. Further changes were announced on August 31: Ibrahim left the Cabinet, together with Fuad Hashim Awad, the economy and foreign trade minister, and five other ministers. Although Ibrahim's position was left vacant, Wagih Shindy, as minister of investment and international coop¬ eration, took over part of his former responsibil¬ ities. The new economy and foreign trade minister was Mustafa Kamel Said. At the congress of the ruling National Democrat¬ ic Party on January 26, President Mubarak was elected unopposed to the post of chairman of the party. In his speech to the congress, Mubarak reaf¬ firmed the priority that had guided the Cabinet reshuffles; the national economy, he stressed, was Egypt's primary interest. A five-year economic plan was to be drawn up with the advice of a conference of experts. Relations with Israel remained a thorny ques¬ tion for President Mubarak in his dealings with the other Arab nations. In a low-key ceremony on April 25, Israel handed back to Egypt the last rem¬ nants of the occupied Sinai Peninsula as part of the

agreement reached at Camp David. Egypt's ambas¬ sador to Israel was recalled in September, howev¬ er, in response to the massacre by Lebanese Christians of Palestinians in Beirut. Nevertheless, Israel remained Egypt's main oil customer, taking 40,000 bbl a day. In welcoming the unified Arab position on the Middle East reached at the Arab summit meeting in Fez, Morocco, in September, Foreign Affairs Minister Kamal Hassan Ali suggested Egypt's am¬ bivalence. Hailing Fez as "an important landmark and turning point in the Arab countries' position, directed toward achieving peace and recognizing the existence of Israel," Ali added that the propos¬ als that emerged were "goals and principles" that still needed to be discussed further by the Arab countries and the U.S. government. Although the Fez declaration was closer to Egypt's position than the solution proposed by President Reagan, Egypt nevertheless supported the Reagan plan. This was because President Mubarak took the view that the U.S. held the key cards in any comprehensive Mid¬ dle East peace plan. (See Middle Eastern

Egpyt

Affairs.)

Egypt's drift back toward Arab orthodoxy was emphasized by the president's enthusiastic es¬ pousal of a union with Sudan. On October 23 at El Arish, where six months earlier the Sinai had been formally handed back, a ceremony took place at which Mubarak and Pres. Gaafar Nimeiry of Su¬ dan formally declared the "integration" of Egypt and Sudan. It was the third time since the over¬ throw of King Farouk in 1952 that Egypt had at¬ tempted a confederation with another Arab nation. The other two attempts, with Syria and with Libya, both broke down. This time, under President Mubarak, the union was to be more

On April 25 the Egyptian flag was raised over the Sinai Peninsula. Israel had agreed to return the Sinai to Egypt as part of the Camp David accord. BARRY IVERSON—GAMMA/LIAISON

338

Egypt

gradual, with a ten-year trial period. At the same time. Foreign Minister Ali was at pains to stress in September that while Egypt welcomed resumed relations with the Arab world, it was in no hurry and would not put pressure on any Arab country over the issue of Egypt's exclusion from the Arab League. Five men convicted of killing Sadat were execut¬ ed in Cairo on April 15, two by firing squad and three by hanging. Prison sentences on 17 other conspirators were upheld. A crackdown on Mus¬ lim fundamentalists announced on September 16 resulted in 58 arrests. The government was forced to ask the People's Assembly for a renewal of the emergency powers granted for one year after Sa¬ dat's death. The Coptic patriarch, Shenuda III, having been stripped of his official status in 1981 for allegedly contributing to tension between Copts and Muslims, remained incommunicado. In spite of these events. President Mubarak ap¬ peared to be taking a comparatively lenient line with political opponents. Many opponents of Sa¬ dat, arrested before his assassination, were re¬ leased during the year. On July 17 the Interior Ministry announced a decision to release 453 de¬ tainees. They included Sheikh Shawqi Istanbuli, father of one of Sadat's assassins. The 453 were among a group of more than 1,500 people who had been held since September 1981. But the president also showed his hand against confidants of Sadat. Reports from Cairo on October 26 said that the younger brother of the late president, Esmat as-Sadat, was to stand trial on charges of corruption. Egypt's economic problems included a trade gap that had deteriorated in 1981 to $4.8 billion; declin¬ ing remittances, down 19%; lower income from tourism, down 24%; and reduced income from Suez Canal tolls. Tourism, particularly from the U.S., was affected by the aftermath of Sadat's as¬ sassination. On September 24 a young Muslim ex¬ tremist attacked a tourist bus near the pyramids at Giza, slightly injuring two Soviet visitors. In addi¬ tion, Egypt had become the world's tenth largest debtor nation, with foreign debts estimated at $16 billion. Although inflation was officially estimated at 9.6%, a more realistic figure was thought to be 2030%. Maintenance of subsidies — currently at $2.4 billion a year —was becoming more burdensome. Some $975 million, equivalent to more than the entire annual income from the Suez Canal, was being used to subsidize bread sales alone. With a population increasing by 1.2 million a year, Egypt had become partly dependent on imported food. Once an exporter of more than 640,000 metric tons of rice a year, the nation had exported no rice since 1980. Crude oil production was expected to rise to 740,000 bbl a day in the financial year ending July 1, 1983, compared with 660,000 bbl a day in the financial year 1981-82. Gas output in the same pe¬ riod was expected to rise to 2.8 million metric tons, compared with 2.5 million metric tons in the previ¬ ous year. An aid agreement worth $284 million was signed in Brussels on May 25 by Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Boutros Boutros-Ghali and Leo •V

EGYPT Education. (1979-80) Primary, pupils 4,434,557, teach¬ ers 137,045; secondary, pupils 1,994,514, teachers 77,095; vocational, pupils 552,151, teachers 31,130; teacher train¬ ing, students 46,299, teachers 3,652; higher (1977-78), stu¬ dents 550,171, teaching staff 23,390. Finance. Monetary unit: Egyptian pound, with (Sept. 20, 1982) an official rate of E£0.83 to U.S. $1 (free rate of E£1.43 = £1 sterling). Gold and other reserves (April 1982) U.S. $801 million. Budget (1979 actual): revenue E£4,343 million; expenditure E£4,517 million. Gross na¬ tional product (1979) E£13,260 million. Money supply (April 1982) E£6,737 million. Cost of living (1975 = 100; Feb. 1982) 218. Foreign Trade. (1981) Imports E£6,147 million; exports E£2,263 million. Import sources: U.S. 20%; West Germa¬ ny 10%; France 9%; Italy 7%; U.K. 5%- Export destina¬ tions: Italy 26%; Israel 17%; Japan 5%; Greece 5%. Main exports (1980): crude oil 58%; cotton 14%; petroleum products 6%; cotton yarn 6%; fruit and vegetables 5%. Transport and Communications. Roads (1979) 28,910 km. Motor vehicles in use (1980): passenger 325,500; com¬ mercial 113,300. Railways: (1980) 4,667 km; traffic (1978) 9,290,000,000 passenger-km, freight 2,302,000,000 net ton-km. Air traffic (1981): 3,264,000,000 passenger-km; freight 40.2 million net ton-km. Shipping (1981): merchant vessels 100 gross tons and over 307; gross tonnage 599,042. Telephones (Dec. 1977) 473,000. Radio receivers (Dec. 1979) 5.4 million. Television receivers (Dec. 1979) 1.3 million. Agriculture. Production (in 000; metric tons; 1981): wheat 1,806; barley 103; millet 653; corn 3,308; rice 2,236; potatoes c. 1,120; sugar, raw value 679; tomatoes c. 2,632; onions c. 527; dry broad beans c. 262; watermelons c. 1,267; dates c. 428; oranges c. 1,137; grapes c. 294; cotton, lint c. 520; cheese c. 247; beef and buffalo meat c. 245. Livestock (in 000; 1981): cattle 1,912; buffalo 2,347; sheep 1,599; goats 1,451; asses c. 1,746; camels 84; chickens c. 27,903. Industry. Production (in 000; metric tons; 1981): ce¬ ment 3,432; iron ore (50% metal content; 1980) 1,780; crude oil 31,795; natural gas (cu m) 2,430,000; petroleum products (1979) 11,480; sulfuric acid 46; fertilizers (nutri¬ ent content; 1980-131) nitrogenous 400, phosphate c. 93; salt (1980) 636; cotton yarn 244; cotton fabrics (m) 631,000; electricity (kw-hr; 1980) 18,520,000.

Tindemans, chairman of the Council of Ministers of the European Communities. U.S. aid to Egypt remained the largest single commitment of any Western nation; on May 26 contracts were signed with the U.S. for the enrichment of uranium for four proposed nuclear power plants. On March 26 the World Bank announced a $90 million loan to finance development of the Abu Qir offshore gas field. Energy remained the brightest element in the economy. Substantial oil finds, particularly one discovered in the Gulf of Suez in November 1981 by the Suez Oil Co., were expected to yield be¬ tween 50,000 and 100,000 bbl a day. On the basis of the find, British Petroleum, a partner in the Suez Oil Co. along with Royal Dutch Shell, Deminex of West Germany, and the Egyptian Gener¬ al Petroleum Corp., proposed to make Egypt, over the next five- or six-year period, second only to the North Sea in its development budget. The output of the Morgan Field, Egypt's largest in production in 1982, was 150,000 bbl a day. The Suez find was, therefore, a substantial addition to known re¬ serves. Royal Dutch Shell also announced that it had struck oil in the Western Desert. In the area of defense spending. President Mu¬ barak was anxious to diversify sources of weapons procurement. France seemed likely to be the coun¬ try to which Egypt would turn; it was reported in

PHILIPPOT—SYGMA

January that Egypt had agreed to purchase 20 Mi¬ rage 2000 interceptors as part of an arms agreement worth $1 billion. Nevertheless, the U.S. connec¬ tion, essential to Mubarak in political terms, re¬ mained the strongest Western influence. The presence of U.S. troops in Sinai as part of the peace¬ keeping force there, as well as the continued joint operations between U.S. and Egyptian troops, demonstrated that the new president intended to stand shoulder to shoulder with his American ally. (john whelan)

El Salvador A republic on the Pacific coast of Central America and the smallest country on the isthmus, El Salva¬ dor is bounded on the west by Guatemala and on the north and east by Honduras. Area: 21,041 sq km (8,124 sq mi). Pop. (1982 est.): 5,087,000. Cap. and largest city: San Salvador (pop., 1980 est., 433,000). Language: Spanish. Religion: Roman Catholic (1980) 96.2%. President of the civilianmilitary junta to May 2, 1982, Jose Napoleon Duarte; president from May 2, Alvaro Alfredo Ma¬ gana Borjo. The elections to El Salvador's Constituent As¬ sembly held on March 28, 1982, failed to provide, as the U.S. and many others had hoped, a clear ma¬ jority for the Partido Democrata Cristiano (pdc) and Pres. Jose Napoleon Duarte. Instead, they re¬ sulted in an unstable and unruly coalition of five parties: the pdc; Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (Arena); Partido de Conciliacion Nacional (pcn); Accion Democratica (AD); and Partido Popular Salvadoreno (pps). All parties were to the right of the political spectrum because the left-wing um¬ brella organization, the Frente Democratico Revolucionario (fdr), did not participate in the elections. Duarte was forced to resign from the presidency and was replaced on May 2 by Alvaro Magana Borjo, a man previously involved not in mainstream politics but in banking and econom¬ ics. The leader of the far-right party Arena, Maj. Roberto d'Aubuisson (see Biographies), was elected president of the assembly and planned to campaign in national presidential elections sched¬ uled to take place in the spring of 1984. U.S. policymakers regarded the elections, in the words of one official, as a "unique experiment in democracy." In the U.K. they were also seen as a legitimate process, and the two official observers sent to cover the elections were reasonably satis¬ fied with their fairness. However, all other nations of the European Community remained skeptical. In March the European Parliament passed a resolu¬ tion declaring that the elections "cannot be regard¬ ed as free elections as no political liberties have been guaranteed and opposition politicians have to face the possibility of assassination." In February France and Mexico denounced the elections, issu¬ ing a peace initiative calling for recognition of the fdr as a representative political force. Within El Salvador itself allegations were made about intimi¬ dation and bribery, and a report produced by the Jesuit-run University of Central America suggest¬ ed that the number of votes had been inflated to

represent an unusually high level of participation. In July U.S. Pres. Ronald Reagan certified that the Salvadoran government had made a "concerted and significant effort" to comply with internation¬ al human rights standards. However, the U.S. Congress was not convinced, rejecting a proposed increase in military aid from $66 million to $166 million and securing a reduction in the proportion allocated to El Salvador from the much-publicized U.S.-funded Caribbean Basin Initiative; El Salva¬ dor's share was reduced from $128 million to a maximum of $75 million. The International Mone¬ tary Fund also laid down conditions to be met be¬ fore it released the remainder of the 75 million Special Drawing Rights promised for balance of payments assistance in 1983.

Litter bearers carry away one of the wounded from a skirmish in El Salvador. Clashes between govern¬ ment forces and guerrillas resulted in thousands of civilian deaths and injuries.

EL SALVADOR Education. (1979) Primary, pupils 900,623, teachers (1976) 16,563; secondary, pupils 29,436; vocational, pupils 47,086; secondary and vocational, teachers (1975) 2,844; teacher training, students 1,585, teachers (1975) 25; higher (1978), students 32,058, teaching staff 2,556. Finance. Monetary unit: colon, with (Sept. 20, 1982) a par value of 2.50 colones to U.S. $1 (free rate of 4.29 colones = £1 sterling). Gold and other reserves (June 1982) U.S. $108 million. Budget (1981 actual): revenue 1,068,200,000 colones; expenditure 1,581,500,000 colo¬ nes. Gross national product (1981) 8,331,000,000 colones. Money supply (April 1982) 1,484,000,000 colones. Cost of living (1975 = 100; April 1982) 231.1. Foreign Trade. (1981) Imports 2,464,500,000 colones; exports 1,979,800,000 colones. Import sources (1979): U.S. 29%; Guatemala 18%; Venezuela 8%; Japan 8%; Costa Rica 5%; West Germany 5%. Export destinations (1979): U.S. 27%; West Germany 20%; Guatemala 16%; The Netherlands 9%; Costa Rica 6%; Japan 6%. Main exports: coffee 58%; cotton 7%; textile yarns and fabrics c. 5%. Transport and Communications. Roads (1977) 11,667 km. Motor vehicles in use (1980): passenger c. 56,600; commercial (including buses) c. 69,000. Railways (1980): c. 763 km; traffic c. 26 million passenger-km, freight 57 mil¬ lion net ton-km. Air traffic (1980): c. 178 million passengerkm; freight c. 13 million net ton-km. Telephones (Dec. 1978) 78,000. Radio receivers (Dec. 1979) 1,508,000. Tele¬ vision receivers (Dec. 1979) 276,000. Agriculture. Production (in 000; metric tons; 1981): corn c. 487; sorghum c. 138; dry beans c. 37; sugar, raw value 174; bananas c. 53; oranges c. 98; coffee c. 150; cotton, lint 41. Livestock (in 000; 1981): cattle 1,211; pigs 386; horses c. 88; chickens c. 5,050. Industry. Production (in 000; metric tons; 1979): ce¬ ment 490; petroleum products c. 730; fertilizers (nutrient content; 1979-80) nitrogenous c. 15, phosphate c. 2; cot¬ ton yarn (1977) 6.4; electricity (kw-hr; 1980) 1,589,000.

El Salvador

Eire: see Ireland Electrical Industries: see Energy; Industrial Review Electronics: see Computers; In¬ dustrial Review

Energy

Polarization between the left and right continued, leading to increased guerrilla and counterin¬ surgency activity. According to the majority of sources, the number of civilian deaths amounted to approximately 13,000 during 1981, with a some¬ what lower total for the first eight months of 1982. Violence spread to the western provinces of Santa Ana, Sonsonate, and Ahuachapan. All attempts at reconciliation, even within the government, failed. The Pact of Apaneca, signed in August by Arena, the pcn, and the pdc, which proposed three commissions to discuss municipal elections, human rights, and peace, was termed a panacea. No agreement was reached on the dates for municipal elections, nor indeed their proce¬ dure, since the far-right parties feared that the pdc would win a majority if there was no prior distri¬ bution of seats. The Government's Commission on Human Rights was not appointed until December, shortly before President Magana's meeting with President Reagan in Costa Rica during the latter's Latin-American trip. Relations with neighbouring countries deteriorated despite the formation of the Central American Democratic Community in Jan¬ uary by El Salvador, Honduras, and Costa Rica, later joined by Guatemala. The widespread political unrest resulted in se¬ vere disruption of the economy. Some 45 bridges, 20 railway lines, and 650 electricity generators were attacked over the period of 18 months up to mid-1982, and guerrilla kidnappings continued. Gross domestic product fell by 9.6% in 1981 and was expected to decline still further in 1982. The trade deficit for 1981 showed a marked deteriora¬ tion. Exports fell by 18% to $792 million, while im¬ ports increased by 1.5% to $986 million. In September the government introduced a parallel exchange rate of 3.50 colones to the U.S. dollar be¬ side the official rate in an attempt to prevent a further decline in the level of international re¬ serves. (lucy blackburn)

Energy

Employment:

see Economy, World

The slack demand for petroleum as a result of the continuing worldwide recession kept oil prices soft throughout the year and created severe strains within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (opec). During the first quarter of 1982 there were many price cuts by both opec members and other exporting countries. Iran, desperate for income to support its war with Iraq, cut its price three times within two weeks in February. An emergency opec meeting in July broke up in dis¬ agreement, as members quarreled over production allocations and the price differentials that reflect the quality of the crude oil. For the remainder of the year official posted prices were maintained, but all countries engaged in discounting. Saudi Arabia, with mounting dissatisfaction, countered other members' above-quota production by cut¬ ting its own output. This brought the Saudi pro¬ duction level down to 5.5 million bbl a day, less than one-half capacity. The action was prompted by the fear that, without it, the relatively small discounting would degenerate into an all-out price

war, possibly leading to a collapse of the interna¬ tional market, opec's final meeting of the year in December also failed to produce any agreement on price differentials and production levels. This heightened the possibility that continued world¬ wide recession in 1983, with the consequent lack of any strengthening in the demand for oil, could lead to a collapse of international oil prices. As it was, the persistent slack oil demand and weak prices had many unpleasant consequences. The unexpected decline in oil revenues brought Mexico to the brink of formal default on its interna¬ tional loans, from which it was rescued by emer¬ gency arrangements with international financial institutions and by the advance payment of $1 bil¬ lion by the United States for additional oil to be delivered to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (A $12 billion loan offer from Saudi Arabia was not accepted, reportedly because it was conditional on either Mexican membership in or formal coopera¬ tion with opec.) The number of laid-up oil tankers reached a record high. Utilization of U.S. refining capacity declined to 61.5% in February, the lowest level since the 1930s. The permanent closing of some entire refineries and obsolescent facilities at others occurred in the U.S., Canada, and Europe. (U.S. refining capacity dropped by more than 10% in the first nine months of the year.) The slump in oil drilling in the U.S. led to many bankruptcies in the drilling and supply industry and to the failure of one bank that had specialized in oil industry loans. In the oil industry there were also noteworthy events not associated with markets and prices. Af¬ ter several years of planning and success in obtain¬ ing all other government permits and approval, a project to transport Alaskan oil by pipeline from Puget Sound to Minnesota met with rejection from the governor of the state of Washington, who re¬ fused on environmental grounds to issue the nec¬ essary final permit. In February the world's largest semisubmersible drilling rig sank in a storm off Newfoundland with the loss of all 84 aboard. Also in February China announced that its offshore wa¬ ters were open for exploration and production by foreigners and sent letters of notification to 46 com¬ panies in a dozen countries, inviting bids. In June the first oil production from the Dutch sector of the North Sea was delivered ashore. This sector had previously produced only natural gas. Oil companies drilling offshore from Point Con¬ ception, Calif., revealed the largest discovery in the U.S. since the gigantic Prudhoe Bay field was found on the north coast of Alaska in 1968. The new discovery was estimated to have reserves of 500 million to 1,000,000,000 bbl. In October deliv¬ eries through the Trans-Panama Pipeline System began. The pipeline was built to bypass the Pana¬ ma Canal in delivering crude oil from Prudhoe Bay to refineries on the Gulf and East coasts of the U.S. The pipeline reduced transportation time by four days and enabled the use of larger tankers on the eastern leg of the route. News of natural gas was dominated by a dispute between the U.S. and its European allies over a project to deliver gas from the Soviet Union to Austria, Belgium, France, Italy, The Nether-

341

Energy

One of the world's largest solar power plants was completed in California's Mojave Desert. The plant has a 90-metre (300-foot) tower surrounded by 1,800 giant movable mir¬ rors. It was expected to generate 10,000 kilowatts.

lands, Switzerland, and West Germany. Delivery was scheduled to begin in 1984 through a 4,500-km (2,800-mi) pipeline from western Siberia at an eventual rate of 39,620,000,000 cu m (1.4 trillion cu ft) per year. The project was to be financed by loans from the buying countries and would in¬ volve the purchase of equipment and the use of technology from those countries. Contracts for the equipment had been signed in 1981, and during 1982 several Western European countries signed gas purchase contracts with the Soviet Union. The U.S. government attempted to discourage the Europeans from proceeding with the project on the grounds that it would make them energy hostages to the Soviets and constitute acquiescence, in trade policy, to Soviet actions in Afghanistan and to the Polish military dictator¬ ship. In June U.S. Pres. Ronald Reagan brought the dispute to a head by prohibiting U.S. firms and their European subsidiaries from supplying the Soviet Union with pipeline equipment that was based on U.S. technology. Viewing this as an un¬ warranted infringement on their sovereignty, France, Italy, West Germany, and the United Kingdom promptly ordered the local firms to hon¬ our their contracts, which they did. The U.S. re¬ taliated by invoking sanctions against the firms involved, prohibiting them from receiving U.S. oil and gas equipment. The end result was that the equipment was delivered to the U.S.S.R., some firms were placed at a competitive disadvantage, and work proceeded on construction of the pipeline. An equally large pipeline project in North America ran into difficulties of its own. The Alaska Highway gas pipeline would bring gas through Canada from the giant Prudhoe Bay field on the Beaufort Sea to the lower 48 states. After several years of struggle to raise the necessary capital in the face of rising costs, backers of the project decid¬ ed in May to postpone for two years the construc¬

tion of the Alaskan portion of the line. In the meantime a portion from Montana to Iowa was completed. In the absence of Alaskan gas, it was to be used to bring gas from Alberta to the Midwest¬ ern states. In June it was announced that exploration in the Atlantic Ocean off Sable Island, near Nova Scotia, had found sufficient gas to justify commercial de¬ velopment. Construction of the offshore structures and the pipeline facilities necessary to bring the gas to the Canadian Maritime Provinces and New England was scheduled to begin in 1984, with de¬ liveries in 1987 or 1988. The coal industry, like the oil industry, faced slack demand as a result of the recession. Coal stockpiles mounted in consuming countries, and the anticipated boom in coal exports from the U.S., Australia, Canada, and South Africa failed to ma¬ terialize. Polish coal miners confounded the expec¬ tations of Western observers by responding to government inducements such as extra food ra-

UPI

The largest privately fi¬ nanced turbine complex in the U.S. went into op¬ eration near Byron, Cali¬ fornia, in july. Each of the five turbines is higher than a ten-story building; together they produce 1,250,000 kilowatts of en¬ ergy annually. The wind farm was selling its elec¬ tricity to a public utility for distribution to customers.

342

Energy

Some of the 2,100 work¬ ers who lost their jobs at Exxon's Colony Shale Oil Project line up to draw their last paychecks. The workers were stunned when Exxon unexpected¬ ly abandoned develop¬ ment of the plant, which had been expected to produce 50,000 barrels a day of synthetic crude oil by 1987.

tions, and Polish coal exports in 1982 began to increase from the near total halt that had resulted from the imposition of martial law at the end of 1981. In May the first commercial use of a coal-oil mixture began at a power plant near Tampa, Fla. The mixture of one-half finely ground coal and one-half heavy fuel oil is burned in a conventional boiler designed to burn straight oil. The result is a considerable cost saving. One of the richest uranium deposits ever found in the U.S. was discovered during the year in Pitt¬ sylvania County, Va. If developed, it would pro¬ vide the first commercial production of uranium east of the Mississippi. In March Brazil's first nu¬ clear power reactor went critical, the first of an eventual eight plants to be operating or under con¬ struction by the year 2000. The Canadian National Energy Board in April authorized the first export of nuclear-generated electricity, from a plant at Point Lepreau, N.B., to consumers in Maine and Massachusetts. The November election in the U.S. included sev¬ eral referenda on nuclear power. In Maine a pro¬ posal to force the closing by 1987 of the state's only nuclear power plant was defeated. Nuclear power also received support from Idaho voters, who pro¬ hibited the state legislature from blocking, with¬ out voter approval, construction of any new nuclear plant. In Massachusetts, on the other hand, voters approved a proposition requiring a referendum on the construction of any nuclear plant or nuclear waste facility. There were several noteworthy events in uncon¬ ventional energy. The most dramatic was the sud¬ den and wholly unexpected cancellation, in May, of the most ambitious shale oil project in the Unit¬ ed States, an undertaking that would have pro¬ duced more than 50,000 bbl a day of synthetic crude oil by 1987. Exxon Corp., the project's spon¬ sor, cited the combination of continuing cost in¬ creases and lower oil prices as the reason for the cancellation. An almost simultaneous announce¬ ment by other oil companies signaled the end of a similarly ambitious project to produce synthetic oil from the huge deposit of tar sands in the Atha¬ basca region of Alberta, Canada, for the same reason. Progress continued, however, in the harnessing of solar energy for commercial use. In April a solar

THE BROWN BUILDERS ON THIS I PROJECT HAVE { HOURS ANO.-WZ 0IT5 TnmOUT I A DISABLING INJUR?. 4S&H&

..

■..

HOWELL/DENVER POST

thermal power facility began operation in the Mo¬ jave Desert near Barstow, Calif. Known as "Solar One," the plant uses an array of mirrors to track the Sun and reflect its light onto a boiler mounted on a central tower. The steam thus generated drives a conventional turbine with a capacity of 10 MW. Two other solar installations to supply utili¬ ties with power also began operation during the year. A plant using Sun-tracking photovoltaic cells to produce one megawatt of electricity started up at Phoenix, Ariz., in July, and in December a onemegawatt photovoltaic plant went on line in San Bernardino County, Calif. Other new projects began supplying energy di¬ rectly to industrial plants. In May a 400-kw facility began supplying electricity and steam for heating, cooling, and process use to a knitwear plant at Shenandoah, Ga., and in the same month another installation began supplying steam to a chemical plant at Haverhill, Ohio. In February construction began on a "solar breeder" factory at Frederick, Md., for the manufacture of photovoltaic cells with 600 kw of electricity supplied by cells on its roofs. In still another unconventional energy applica¬ tion, construction began in March on a com¬ pressed-air power plant near Springfield, Ill. When completed in 1986, the plant would use elec¬ tricity generated by conventional power plants during the offpeak period at night to store com¬ pressed air in caverns 545 m (1,800 ft) below ground at a pressure of 800 psi. This would provide enough energy to generate 220 MW for 11 hours during daytime periods of peak electricity demand. In December 1981 President Reagan announced his plan to abolish the Department of Energy and shift about 70% of its functions to the Department of Commerce, with the remainder to be scattered among other departments. (The Department of En¬ ergy had been created in 1977.) This proposal ful¬ filled one of Reagan's pledges made during his 1980 election campaign. Congressional reaction to the proposal was so lukewarm, however, that it was never formally submitted, and the adminis¬ tration contented itself with continuing the reduc¬ tion in the department's work force and programs that it had begun on taking office. In March the U.S. Senate sustained the presidential veto of a bill that would have given him the power to allocate oil and control its price during a future emergency. Reagan said that he was declining the authority because he believed the free market would work better during a crisis than would any system of government controls. In September the U.S. Con¬ gress continued the funding for the controversial Clinch River (Tenn.) demonstration breeder reac¬ tor project. Work on the project had been halted while opponents of the project sought to kill it on environmental grounds through court action. Al¬ most simultaneously with the congressional action a federal appeals court overturned a lower court or¬ der that had blocked site-clearing work. Bulldoz¬ ing began the day after the court decision. In another court action, in January, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the right of Indian tribes to impose severance taxes on mineral resources produced on their lands. (bruce c. netschert)

COAL In 1981-82 energy analysts continued to look into the future, even though the more immediate prospect remained confusing. In its review Coal Prospects and Policies in 1EA Countries, 1981, the International Energy Agency —an autonomous body within the 21-nation Organization for Economic Coop¬ eration and Development (oecd) — summa¬ rized the sources of uncertainty. Coal could meet the needs of producers for stable sup¬ plies at competitive prices, but the uncer¬ tainties arose from: (1) weakening of oil prices, reducing coal's competitive advan¬ tage; (2) low economic growth, reducing investment in coal-fired plants; (3) low and uncertain projections of electricity demand; and (4) concern about environmental impact. Nevertheless, iea forecast that solid fuels would provide 45% of the incremental en¬ ergy growth expected by member countries between 1980 and 1990. This additional to¬ tal was equivalent to 347 million metric tons of crude oil, almost as much as current annual oil output from Saudi Arabia. But the iea's own Coal Industry Advisory Board (ciab) commented that this review understated the strategic importance of substituting for oil and the risk that con¬ sumers might look only to short-term price comparisons. In a separate document, The Use of Coal in Industry, the ciab broadly con¬ firmed the conclusions of the 1980 World Coal Study that a large expansion of indus¬ trial coal use was possible. However, the board added that the opportunities had not been fully developed. In terms of fuel eco¬ nomics, the steam coal potential was esti¬ mated at 500 million metric tons for 1990 and 700 million tons for the year 2000 be¬ cause opportunities for increased use of coal and reduction in oil use had yet to be fully recognized. Industry had a stock of boilers and furnaces designed for oil and gas, and these would change very slowly. The ciab urged governments to identify priority tar¬ get sectors for conversion and to determine the constraints. Target sectors suggested were those having the fewest constraints, such as blast furnaces and cement kilns, and those where bulk heat requirements were high (chemical plants, aluminum smelters, textile mills). Governments were also encouraged to pay attention to envi¬ ronmental and any other similar factors that would be constraints on conversion to coal and examine ways of removing them. There was also some concern about the implications of a study by the International Union of Producers and Distributors of Electrical Energy which found that nuclear power undercut the cost of coal-generated power in five European countries. Howev¬ er, this involved other problems of public acceptability. Atmospheric Acidification. Combus¬ tion of coal and oil wras indicted as the main source of "acid rain." For its Environment 82 conference on the tenth anniversary of the first UN Conference on the Human En¬ vironment, the Swedish Ministry of Agri¬ culture published a report titled Acid¬ ification Today and Tomorrow. This stated that almost 100 million metric tons of man¬ made sulfur emissions were being dis¬ charged into the atmosphere, mainly from Europe and North America. This was caus¬

ing acidification of lakes, watercourses, for¬ ests, farmland, and groundwater; it damaged plants, caused corrosion, and might disturb the climate and directly af¬ fect human health. The Swedes urged adop¬ tion of an international program for gradually reducing sulfur emissions to a common level for all countries, determined by the environmental effects. (See Environment.)

In 1979 a European convention was adopted on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution; techniques considered included coal cleaning and flue gas desulfurization (fgd). Two years later a UN seminar in Salzburg, Austria, concluded that fgd could reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide by 90% or more at a cost of 10 to 20% of the total investment costs of power stations. Coal Production. Reflecting the con¬ tinuing weakness of economic activity in most of the world, global production of hard coal was reported by the UN as 2,811,000,000 metric tons for 1981, a de¬ cline of 0.9% compared with 1980. (All pro¬ duction figures given below are in metric tons.) The U.S., with an output of 685.6 million tons (a fall of 4.9%), was the largest producer, followed by China (620 million tons, no change) and the U.S.S.R. (544.2 million tons, a drop of 1.6%). Other pro¬ ducers of between 1 and 6% of the world's output were, in descending order, Poland, South Africa, the U.K., India, West Ger¬ many, Australia, and North Korea. These ten largest producers together yielded 93.3% of the world's hard coal. (For a per¬ centage breakdown by region, see Table.) China planned a large expansion and modernization of its industry. For ten spe¬ cific large projects it invited foreign financ¬ ing and organized a seminar to promote negotiations with foreign companies. All of those projects were for multimillion-ton an¬ nual producton. Most striking was a surface mine at Yuanbaoshan, Nei Monggol (Yiianpao Shan, Inner Mongolia), with planned capacity of 80 million tons a year; three oth¬ ers were for 15 million tons a year, and one was for 10 million tons a year. Poland seemed to have succeeded in starting to fight its way back to recovery. The nation's political troubles were accom¬ panied by a decline of 15.6% in coal output from 1980 to 1981 (to 163 million tons) and a cut of 52% in exports. But in the first half of 1982, daily production rose from 595,000 tons to 630,000 tons, and a struggle to gain or regain export markets around the world was under way. World production of brown coal at 1,003,000,000 tons in 1981 increased 3.2% over 1980. East Germany was again by far the largest producer, accounting for 26.6%, followed by the U.S.S.R. with 16.6% of world output. Energy Strategy and Trade. Coun¬ tries generally aimed at reducing their de¬ pendence on petroleum. Between 1979 and 1981 the European Community nations suc¬ ceeded in raising the share of solid fuel in energy supply from 31 to 34% and reducing that of oil from 42 to 37%. There were simi¬ lar trends in the U.S., but the share of oil in Eastern Europe remained much the same over this period and actually rose in the U.S.S.R. Trade patterns in 1981 included a large rise in coal exports from the U.S. and Cana-

343

Energy

World Production of Hard Coal by Region (% of total) Region

1980

1981

Europe (excluding U.S.S.R.) U.S.S.R. North America South America Asia Africa Oceania Total

17.7 19.5 26.4

16.8 19.4 25.6

28.8 4.2

29.5 4.8 3.3

0.6

0.6

2.8 100.0 100.0

da to Western Europe, rises in total exports from Australia, and a gain in Soviet exports to Eastern Europe. These changes coincided with declines in exports from Poland and the U.S.S.R. to Western Europe. Coal-Oil Dispersions. Interest contin¬ ued in coal-oil dispersions (sometimes with added water). They were intended to be used with minor adjustments on oil-fuel equipment as a compromise that would re¬ duce oil burn and increase coal burn but did not demand conversion of facilities al¬ ready installed. In the U.K. British Petro¬ leum had a plant making 100,000 tons a year for practical trials of the mixtures for stability and combustion properties. Ship¬ ments of U.S.-produced material to a 125MW unit in Florida by conventional tank barges were satisfactorily handled by load¬ ing and unloading equipment designed for oil. The combustion units had to be fitted with electrostatic precipitators (to dean the flue gas) and an ash-handling system. Chi¬ na embarked on a demonstration program of testing these mixtures in three boilers, currently oil-fired, two of them each burn¬ ing 100 tons an hour. The Chinese were also testing stability during storage and trans¬ port. In all cases the interest arose because the cost of coal was half that of oil per Brit¬ ish thermal unit (btu), and also because of the stability of long-term supplies of coal. Coal Conversion. Developments in connection with the conversion of coal to liquid and gas presented a mixed picture. The West German Technology Ministry commented that coal-to-oil projects were technically satisfactory but made little eco¬ nomic sense; a few months later there were substantial cutbacks in the federal subsidies for coal liquefaction projects. However, the funds allotted still allowed a considerable effort to continue. Meanwhile, the Japanese effort was described as "alive and well"; it included cooperation with the West Ger¬ man Ruhrkohle and formed part of the Jap¬ anese government's "Sunshine Project" for commercializing energy sources that could substitute for oil. The Sasol 3 facility in South Africa produced its first synthetic crude oil from coal, and Sasol was consider¬ ing building Sasol 4. In the U.S.S.R. scien¬ tists regretted the smallness of the effort put into coal liquefaction, while in the U.S. there were continuing uncertainties about the scope and scale of such efforts. (ISRAEL BERKOVITCH)

ELECTRICITY In 1982 companies and authorities con¬ cerned with the bulk generation of electric¬ ity continued their retreat from the use of oil as a fuel. The main fuels were seen in-

344

Energy creasingly as coal and uranium. In the U.S. utilities were converting from oil to coal — six units in Florida alone —and no more oilfired power stations were planned in the U.K. New stations in almost all countries were based on coal or uranium. The excep¬ tions to this general rule were those coun¬ tries where the topography is suitable for the use of hydroelectric power, the cheap¬ est source of electricity. For example, Nor¬ way generated almost all its electricity in hydroelectric power stations and claimed to have the greatest per capita consumption in Western Europe. Sweden generated about 65% of its capacity in this way, and China announced in 1982 ambitious plans for hy¬ droelectric stations with a total capacity of 11,540 MW; the first stage of its earlier, more modest, projects was completed in 1981. In Brazil the hydroelectric potential was estimated at well over 100,000 MW, of which only 25% was being utilized or built; nevertheless, hydroelectricity constituted approximately 90% of Brazil's production, and the nation had the largest hydroelectric project in the world (12,000 MW) under construction at Itaipu. The U.S.S.R. also had extensive hydroelectric projects, with which it generated almost 20% of its elec¬ tricity. Canada produced nearly 70% of its electricity from water power. However, hydroelectricity constituted only a fraction of total production in the industrially developed countries, and the fuels of the foreseeable future were coal and uranium. (There was some use of gas but the effect of the pipeline for natural gas from the U.S.S.R. to Western Europe could not yet be estimated.) The costs of both had been increasing and that of coal was still rising, but nuclear fuel showed signs of de¬ clining. In general the result was that elec¬ tricity had risen in price everywhere and continued to rise. The effect of this was complex, one aspect of inflation and trade recession. Increased costs resulted in less usage, affecting long-term planning and calling for closer attention to improved effi¬ ciency and utilization. Use of electricity fell by 1.9% in the U.S. over the past year, and sales in the U.K. to industry fell by 1.7%, although this was an improvement over the previous year's fall of 8.4%. In France Electricite de France lost some Fr 400 million because of the drop in consumption. These figures were fairly indicative of the trend in all developed nations. (Compari¬ sons do not apply to less developed coun¬ tries, which have no criteria of past usage. They could make use of every advance made in the industrial countries, and every new generating station was a clear gain.) The overall result was that there was great emphasis on economy in both produc¬ tion and use. Many new plants were post¬ poned or canceled in the U.S. In the U.K. the Electricity Council was able to report a rise in efficiency of coal-fired generation from 33.77 to 34.12% in one year on aver¬ age. Some 85% of its research spending was devoted to problems of generation. Some research also went into ways of reducing the amount of expensive metal in a genera¬ tor. From the U.S.S.R. there was a report that Electrosila, a manufacturer of machin¬

ery, was making turbo-generators with 1520% less copper. In the usage of electricity there were many developments in economy. Prizes were awarded in the U.K. for energy sav¬ ing, and many of these went to enterprises that achieved savings in electricity, espe¬ cially in lighting. During the year one wellknown international lamp manufacturer publicized a new fluorescent lamp with an output of over 40 lumens per watt that could be plugged into the usual lamp¬ holders without any special fittings, thus bringing greater lighting efficiency to the domestic user. Research was also being done in the U.K., with government backing, into the improvement of induction motors to make them more economical. One company de¬ vised a system of house wiring that could be installed by semiskilled personnel. All these developments and many others, how¬ ever trivial they might seem in a global pic¬ ture, were signs of the times. Another development in Western coun¬ tries meriting discussion was the growth of the environmentalist lobby, especially those opposing nuclear power. The latter became so vocal and effective that they were able to influence Western govern¬ ments to slow down nuclear-power devel¬ opment. This led to the emergence of the U.S.S.R. as an exporter of nuclear-power stations to less developed countries that did not have coal. The U.S.S.R, made a 440-MW standardized reactor and was successful in selling it. West Germany, Japan, and France followed the Soviet lead. The U.K. and the U.S., pioneers of the nuclear-power industry, were left behind. In the development of the fast breeder reactor the U.S. was well behind, although

in 1982 licensing rules were waived for pre¬ paratory site work on the 375-MW Clinch River, Tenn., reactor station. France's 1,200-MW fast breeder reactor was nearing completion, and the Soviet 600-MW fast breeder was operating. In West Germany the federal government ruled that work should resume on the fast breeder being built at Kalkar; construction had been halt¬ ed pending a review of the project's financ¬ ing. In the U.K. the Dounreay Prototype Fast Reactor was successfully operated. An important achievement was that the used fuel was successfully reprocessed at a 99.8% recovery of plutonium; therefore, much less waste had to be disposed of, thus meet¬ ing one of the main objections of the antinu¬ clear protesters. No decision was made, however, about a fully commercial fast breeder reactor power station of 1,200 MW. A second environmental issue claimed much attention during the year. This was the matter of "acid rain" caused by sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in the gas emit¬ ted from the chimneys of coal-fired power stations. (See Coal, above.) It was increasingly realized that electron¬ ics was no longer entirely separable from the electrical industry. In the U.K. the elec¬ trical suppliers ordered 2,000 microproces¬ sor-based radio teleswitch receivers ready for trials in 1983. Along with the employ¬ ment of radio transmissions for switch¬ ing—already in use in the U.S. —electronics was also replacing conventional circuitbreaker technology. By incorporating suit¬ able sensors that monitored the state of a circuit breaker —temperature, contact posi¬ tion, etc.— the information could be dealt with in a central processing unit. The most general application of microelectronics was homeostatic control, which involved spot

Electrical Power Production of Selected Countries, 1981 By source

India

Brazil*

Italy

France

United Kingdom

West Germany

Canada

Japan

Soviet Union

United States

200

400

000,000,000

600

800 1,000 1,200

1,400

1,600

kilowatt-hours

*1980. Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, J 981 United Nations,

Monthly Bulletin

International Energy Annual;

of Statistics.

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

pricing of equipment and continuous inter¬ action between supplier and customer. Another recent development was the use of fibre optics in connection with the sup¬ ply and use of electricity. In the U.K. a 21km (13-mi) link had- optical fibres incorporated in a 400-kv transmission line. The U.S., Japan, and the U.K. were all ac¬ tively involved in this technology. It was developed primarily for telecommunica¬ tions, and in the making of suitable fibre both the U.S. and the U.K. had been pio¬ neers, with the latter already installing many miles of cable in its trunk telephone lines. Optical fibres were immune to elec¬ tromagnetic interference, light in weight, and intrinsically safe in hostile surround¬ ings. Furthermore, the light transmitted, being of much shorter wavelength, could carry a much wider waveband of signals. The utilization of optical fibre in the power sector of the electrical industry was likely to be of increasing importance. Finally, there was the matter of renew¬ able sources of energy for the generation of electricity. These were not likely to be im¬ portant in size in developed countries, but in the less developed nations the utilization of both solar and wind sources might well increase. The direct conversion of sunlight into electricity appeared attractive for pumps and refrigerators (for medical mate¬ rials and food) because the costs of photo¬ voltaic cells were falling. Considerable research was under way on the develop¬ ment of still cheaper cells, and it appeared that photovoltaic installations might soon be cheaper than those dependent on diesel fuel. The use of wind appeared very attrac¬ tive for remote areas, such as offshore is¬ lands, even in developed countries. In the U.K. a 200-kw wind turbine of U.S. design was connected to the national grid, and on the Swedish island of Gotland a prototype 2-MW aerogenerator was completed. (c. l. boltz)

NATURAL GAS World proven reserves of natural gas on Jan. 1, 1982, were estimated to be 84,959,000,000,000 cubic metres (84,959 billion cu m or bcm). This compared with world reserves of 77,711 bcm a year earlier and 38,099 bcm in 1970. The marked in¬ crease in the estimate for reserves between 1981 and 1982 was chiefly due to the revi¬ sion of figures for the U.S.S.R. and the in¬ clusion of new discoveries in Norway, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar. The U.S.S.R.'s reserves of 34,000 bcm were equivalent to 40% of the world total; Iran had 12.4%, the U.S. 6.6%, Algeria 3.7%, Qatar 3.3%, Abu Dhabi 3.1%, and Canada 3% of total reserves. Be¬ tween them, the opec countries had 32.6% of the world's reserves. World commercial gas production in 1981, excluding gas flared or reinjected, was 1,558.1 bcm, 1.7% higher than in 1980. The leading gas-producing countries were the U.S. (554.7 bcm), U.S.S.R. (465.2 bcm), The Netherlands (80.8 bcm), Canada (73.9 bcm), and the U.K. (36.8 bcm). The opec countries produced 94.1 bcm. The life of the world's proven reserves was estimated to be 55 years at current production rates. The volume of gas in international trade in 1981 was estimated to be 188 bcm, about 84 % of which was transported by pipeline and the remainder as liquefied natural gas (lng). The leading exporting countries were the U.S.S.R. (57.5 bcm), supplying its Eastern European allies as well as several Western European countries; The Nether¬ lands (42 bcm), supplying much of West¬ ern Europe; Norway (26.2 bcm,), exporting gas to the U.K. and to Western Europe via Emden; and Canada, providing 21.6 bcm to the U.S. All four of these exporters trans¬ ported their gas by pipeline. The next three largest exporters were involved in the lng trade: Indonesia (11.75 bcm), Algeria (7.1 bcm), and Brunei (7 bcm). Most of the lng traded went to Japan, which took all the

345

Energy exports of Indonesia, Brunei, Abu Dhabi, and Alaska, 22.9 bcm out of the total 30.8 bcm of lng in international trade. The oth¬ er lng importers in 1981, France, Spain, the U.S., and the U.K., were supplied by Algeria and Libya. During 1981-82 the international gas trade achieved an unaccustomed political prominence. Gas companies in France and Italy had for a long time found themselves unable to agree with Algeria over the terms of new contracts for gas imports, but their respective governments made agreements based on political rather than commercial considerations. A major new pipeline, bringing increased supplies from the U.S.S.R. to Western Europe, raised ques¬ tions about European dependence on Soviet energy supplies and caused an internation¬ al controversy linked with events in Poland. The U.S.S.R. planned to supply Western Europe with an additional 40 bcm a year of gas from western Siberia through the new pipeline, intended to begin deliveries in 1984. Agreements to import this gas, at least in principle, were reached with Italy in October and West Germany in Novem¬ ber 1981, followed by France in January and Austria in June 1982. Declining gas de¬ mand in The Netherlands made it likely that the Dutch would pull out of the group of importers. Italy was uncertain about its share of the gas, but by the autumn of 1982 it seemed that the U.S.S.R. had firm com¬ mitments from West Germany to take 10.5 bcm a year, from France to take 8 bcm a year, and from Austria to take 1.5 bcm a year, with an option for an additional 1 bcm annually. Italy could take up to 6 bcm a year. As was usual in international gas agreements, none of the parties involved The first nuclear boiling wa¬ ter reactor to be put into service since the Three Mile Island accident began gen¬ erating in September. The plant is Commonwealth Edi¬ son's La Salle station near Seneca, Illinois.

WIDE WORLD

346

Energy disclosed many details of the price or the formula by which it would be increased. Reportedly, the French and West German contracts were similar, fixing a base price equivalent to $4.65 per million btu for gas delivered at the Czechoslovak-West Ger¬ man border and a minimum price of $5.50 per million btu for gas delivered all the way to each country. One of the attractions of these deals for Western Europe was the prospect of orders for Western companies to supply equipment for the pipeline. The sanctions on trade with the U.S.S.R. im¬ posed by the U.S. following the crisis in Poland affected the supply of pipeline and compressor technology by U.S. companies, their subsidiaries in Europe, and those Eu¬ ropean companies which used U.S. technol¬ ogy under license. Although such sanctions might delay completion of the pipeline, their main effect seemed to be to strain rela¬ tions between the U.S. and its European allies. In February 1982, after two years of nego¬ tiations, France and Algeria agreed on the price to be paid for all France's imports of lng. The deal was unusual because Gaz de France was unwilling to pay the price re¬ quired by Algeria, and agreement was only reached when the French government in¬ tervened and offered to contribute 60 cents per million btu in addition to the $4.50 re¬ portedly to be paid by Gaz de France. Ap¬ parently, Algeria also undertook to place more orders in France. Similarly, the Ital¬ ian government took over negotiations with Algeria from the state gas company. The trans-Mediterranean pipeline was completed in 1981, but no gas was flowing in the absence of an agreed-upon price. An agreement signed in September 1982 was

understood to provide for Italy to pay an initial $4.41 per million btu for gas at the Algerian border and for the Italian govern¬ ment to compensate the gas company for the difference between the contract price and what the company believed to be an economic price. By the terms of the agree¬ ment Italy was to take some 12 bcm a year, and Algeria would remove its freeze on commercial contracts with Italy. Algeria also achieved nonpolitical settlements to its differences over pricing with two U.S. companies. Panhandle Eastern and Distrigas. European gas companies, led by Gaz de France, began discussions about taking gas from the Arctic Pilot Project, intended to demonstrate the feasibility of using ice¬ breaking lng carriers to exploit gas from the Canadian Arctic. On the other hand, the Bonny lng consortium, which planned to export lng from Nigeria, broke up; the projected lng terminal at Cojo Bay, Calif., was shelved; and the planned start of ex¬ ports of lng from Australia's North-West Shelf to Japan was postponed a year to 1987. The most radical proposal of 1982 was prob¬ ably the project of General Dynamics Corp. for giant submarines to take lng from Alas¬ ka beneath the ice of the Arctic to Europe. (richard j. cassidy)

PETROLEUM During 1982 much attention focused on the manner in which opec would respond to the downward movement not only of prices but of production. Some prematurely pre¬ sumed that the disarray of opec portended the collapse of the organization; others, for¬ getting the price rises of previous years, hoped that it would play its part as a price stabilizer, opec's 62nd conference in Abu Dhabi in December 1981 did not provide decisive direction, and by the next month, with the spot market prices continuing to

Work on a Soviet natural gas pipeline to Western Europe continued despite U.S. attempts to impose sanctions to prevent its construction.

SYGMA

slide, some were remarking that the situa¬ tion had become "a structural oversupply which is incapable of responding to any normal fine tuning of the price mecha¬ nism." However, considerably more than fine tuning was required to meet the na¬ tional budgetary requirements of the opec states. For additional information about opec, see Introduction, above. The fluctuation of oil prices was not a temporary opec phenomenon; behind the political and economic controversies lay a change in the oil marketing structure. Whereas previously the oil companies had balanced the supply and demand situation within their own networks, this role had been replaced by an open marketing system of short-term contracts and increasing use of the spot market. The creation of a new fu¬ tures exchange in oil products in London in 1982 confirmed this trend toward more op¬ portunistic and less traditional trading conditions. Furthermore, the fall in con¬ sumption, like that of production, was not at all uniform. It was most marked in the in¬ dustrialized nations, whereas consumption in the less developed countries was actually rising. Moreover, while opec production fell to 47.5% of the world total in the first half of 1982, non-OPEC production for the same period in the non-Communist world rose from 38 to 48%. Reserves. There was a further increase in the total world "published proved" re¬ serves at the end of 1981, to 678,200,000,000 bbl, compared with 654,900,000,000 bbl a year earlier. The share of reserves in the Western Hemi¬ sphere again increased, to 19.1% (16.6% in 1980 and 15% in 1979) or 129,400,000,000 bbl, while that of the Middle East, the prin¬ cipal area of concentration, dropped to 53.5 from 55.3% the year before. China's share marginally decreased from 3.1 to 2.9% as did Africa's, 8.4 to 8.3%, whereas that of Western Europe slightly increased to 3.7 from 3.6%. Latin-American reserves in¬ creased from 10.6 to 12.5% and U.S. re¬ serves from 4.9 to 5%, but Soviet reserves dropped slightly, from 9.6 to 9.3%. The overall ratio of reserves at the end of the year divided by production in that year, expressed as number of years' supply re¬ maining at that date, continued its im¬ provement since 1979 and was 32 at the end of 1981. Production. World oil production again decreased significantly in 1981, by 6.2%. This followed a 4.7% decline in 1980 and a 0.4% drop during 1976-81. Output aver¬ aged 59.1 million bbl a day, as against 62,705,000 bbl a day the previous year. Among the producing countries of the Mid¬ dle East only Oman ( + 11.4%) and Dubai (+2.6%) registered increases. Total Middle East production was 152,980,000 bbl a day, down by 15% following a decrease of 14.2% in 1980. Production in Iraq dropped by 66.1% to 900,000 bbl a day; Kuwait 32.4% to 965,000 bbl a day; the Neutral Zone 30.9% to 370,000 bbl a day; Abu Dhabi 15.5% to 1,140,000 bbl a day; Qatar 15.3% to 405,000 bbl a day; and Iran 11.1% to 1,315,000 bbl a day. Saudi Arabia remained almost constant at 9,990,000 bbl a day. Mid¬ dle East production amounted to 27.3% of the world total. African production dropped considera¬ bly, by 22% to 4,860,000 bbl a day, with

only Egypt again registering a rise, 7.9% to 690,000 bbl a day. Libya was down by 37.5% to 1,120,000 bbl a day, compared with a five-year annual decrease of 10.4%; Nigeria declined by 30.3% to 1,445,000 bbl a day; Gabon by 14% to 150,000 bbl a day; and Algeria by 10% to 1,010,000 bbl a day. Southeast Asia fell by 5% to 2,020,000 bbl a day, but Indonesia was almost unchanged, being up by 0.8% to 1,605,000 bbl a day. Australasia rose only 2.8% to 415,000 bbl a day. China dropped by 3.5% to 2,035,000 bbl a day, 3.5% of the world total. Latin-American production showed a slight rise of 1.1% to 18,045,000 bbl a day, though Venezuela was down 3.3% to 2,170,000 bbl a day, 3.9% of world produc¬ tion. Mexico overtook Venezuela, achiev¬ ing a rise of 19.5% to 2,585,000 bbl a day, 4.4% of the world total. Elsewhere in Latin America there were rises of 13.4% in Trini¬ dad to 240,000 bbl a day; 12.9% in Brazil to 220,000 bbl a day; and 7% in Colombia to 135,000 bbl a day. U.S. production hardly changed, up by just 0.7% to 8,560,000 bbl a day, 14.7% of the world total. Canada dropped by 9.8% to 1,565,000 bbl a day, 2.5% of the world total. Western European production increased by 6.5% to 2,735,000 bbl a day, 4.6% of the world total. The largest output was by the U.K., up by 11.1% to 1,845,000 bbl a day, 3.1% of the world total; Norway with 505,000 bbl a day was down by 3.7%, com¬ pared with a previous five-year average in¬ crease of 12.5%. The U.S.S.R. remained the greatest single producer, up by 1% to 12,370,000 bbl a day, 21% of the world to¬ tal. Between 1979 and 1981 opec production fell from 31 million to 23 million bbl a day. Consumption. Throughout the world consumption had been dropping since the peak of 64,145,000 bbl a day in 1979; it fell by 3.3% to 59,845,000 bbl a day in 1981 and, exclusive of the U.S.S.R., Eastern Eu¬ rope, and China, by 4.4% to 47,045,000 bbl a day. Nevertheless, consumption in 1981 was still double that of 1965. Western Eu¬ rope, down by 7.4% to 12,985,000 bbl a day, showed the greatest decline with only Portugal and Turkey being up, by 5.4% and 180,000 bbl a day and 3.5% and 315,000 bbl a day, respectively. Otherwise all the main European consuming nations fell, Denmark by 13.6% to 240,000 bbl a day; Sweden by 12.6% to 440,000 bbl a day; West Germany by 10.3% to 2,465,000 bbl a day (4.1% of total consumption); Austria by 10.7% to 220,000 bbl a day; France by 9.6% to 2,070,000 bbl a day; The Nether¬ lands by 8.6% to 730,000 bbl a day; and the U.K. by 7.7% to 1,555,000 bbl a day. Over the years 1976-81 the average fall was 2.4% annually. Other areas where consumption fell in¬ cluded the U.S., down by 6.4% to 15,480,000 bbl a day, with 25.6% of the world total; Canada 6.8% to 1,745,000 bbl a day; Japan by 5.6% to 4.7 million bbl a day (third greatest at 7.7% of the world total); and China by 3.6% to 1,705,000 bbl a day. Eastern Europe at 2,110,000 bbl a day and Australasia at 770,000 bbl a day each regis¬ tered a slight fall of 0.2%. Consumption in¬ creased overall in Latin America by 2.2% to 4,745,000 bbl a day (7.8% of the world to¬ tal); in South Asia by 7.3% to 890,000 bbl a day; Africa by 5.4% to 1,565,000 bbl a day; the Middle East by 3.3% to 1,685,000 bbl a

347 day; and the U.S.S.R. by 1.9% to 8,985,000 bbl a day (the second largest consumer, 15.3% of the world total). Refining. In 1981 there was a surplus of world refining capacity (82.1 million bbl a day) in comparison with consumption (59,845,000 bbl a day). Nevertheless, over¬ all capacity rose by 1.1% in 1982 with the U.S. up by 0.2% to 18,290,000 bbl a day (the biggest share, 22.3%, of the world total) and Latin America up 1.1% to 9,015,000 bbl a day (11% of the world total). Western European capacity was down by 0.6% to 20,365,000 bbl a day (24.9% of the world to¬ tal), but Spain increased by 8.6% to 1,550,000 bbl a day. Figures for the Middle East were distorted by the loss of the refin¬ ery at Abadan in Iran, which reduced ca¬ pacity there by 47.8% from 1,225,000 bbl a day to 640,000 bbl a day, still the most in the Middle East. Total capacity in the Mid¬ dle East fell by 9.5% to 3,230,000 bbl a day. Saudi Arabia's capacity increased by 18.4% to 585,000 bbl a day. African capacity rose by 3.8% to 2,160,000 bbl a day, less than the previous five-year average annual increase of 9.4%; South Asia by 1.6% to 890,000 bbl a day; Southeast Asia by 1.3% to 3,510,000 bbl a day; and Australasia by 1.2% to 820,000 bbl a day. The U.S.S.R., Eastern Europe, and China together increased by 7.3% to 15,990,000 bbl a day. Once again North America produced the greatest volume of gasolines, 48% of the world total. Western Europe led in middle distillates with 34% of the total, and Japan in fuel oil with 35%. Since 1965 refinery capacity had increased by 15%. Tankers. The size of the world tanker fleet continued to drop from its peak of 332.7 million long tons deadweight (dw) in 1977, and at 320.2 million tons dwt in 1981 (9.8% less than in 1980) it was lower than

Energy the 1976 figure. The drop was almost entire¬ ly in tankers below 45,000 tons dwt. Ton¬ nage flying the Liberian flag remained the largest single fleet but dropped by 9.1% to 91.6 million tons dwt, 28.6% of the world total. Japan owned 9.2% of the world tanker fleet with 29.7 million tons dwt; Norway 7.6% with 24.4 million tons dwt, a minor increase over the previous year; and the U.K. tanker fleet dropped below that of Norway for the first time, falling 6.6% to 21.3 million tons dwt. The U.S. tanker fleet increased slightly to 16.4 million tons dwt, 5.1% of the total. Tankers between 10,000 and 45,000 tons dwt, at 39.8 million tons dwt, comprised 12.4% of the world total tonnage; between 45,000 and 205,000 tons dwt, 103.2 million tons dwt, 32.2%; and between 205,000 and 285,000 tons dwt, 177.2 million tons dwt, 55.4%. In interarea total oil movements the main employment of tankers was in voyages from the Middle East, 14,605,000 bbl a day or just over half the total movements of 28,655,000 bbl a day, down by some 20% from 1980. The main movements were to Western Europe, 5,750,000 bbl a day, 39,3%; Japan, 3,020,000 bbl a day, 20.6%; Southeast Asia, 1,775,000 bbl a day, 12%; Latin America, 1,395,000 bbl a day, 9.9%; and the U.S. 1,255,000 bbl a day, 8.6%. The second main employment of tankers was from Latin America, 4,380,000 bbl a day, 15.2% of the total, of which the U.S. took the greatest share, 1,950,000 bbl a day, 44.5%, followed by Western Europe, 880,000 bbl a day, 20%. (r. w. ferrier) See also Engineering Projects; Industrial Review; Mining and Quarrying; Transportation. [214.C.4; 721; 724.B.2; 724.C.1-2; 737.A.5]

The largest oil strike to be discovered in the U.S. since the Prudhoe Bay field was found in 1968 is off the shore of Point Conception, near Santa Barbara, California.

JOHN BARR—GAMMA/LIAISON

348

Engineering Projects

The world's largest mov¬ able flood barrier, span¬ ning the River Thames at Woolrich, was complet¬ ed in 1982. Designed to protect London from flooding by freak high tides, the barrier took ten years to build and cost £435 million. The huge revolving flood¬ gates normally rest on the river bed.

Bridges. The frequency of heavy trucks on the roads of Western Europe had increased so much in recent years that the “design load" that engineers use for calculations on long-span bridges was to be increased threefold over the figure used 20 years earlier. Most existing bridges that had a loaded length exceeding 100 m (1 m = 3.3 ft) failed to sat¬ isfy the proposed regulations. While that did not mean that such bridges were unsafe for normal daily traffic, there was a risk of occasional exces¬ sive loading when bunching of heavy trucks oc¬ curred. Engineers and highway administrations were consequently faced with the question of whether to strengthen the bridges or whether to install traffic load-measuring devices linked with traffic controls, so that if the weight of traffic on a bridge approached an unacceptable level the traffic flow could be checked temporarily. The latter method was usually cheaper, and because ensuing traffic delays were minimal it was likely to be widely adopted in preference to costly modifica¬ tions of existing structures. In North America the battle of concrete versus steel for long-span bridges followed the pattern already set in Europe, with concrete being used where, a few years earlier, steel would have been the automatic choice. A showdown developed be¬ tween concrete and steel interests over the replace¬ ment for the Sunshine Skyway Bridge across Tampa Bay, Florida, a structure requiring a 370 m cable-stayed main span and 2,300 m of high-level approach spans. The final decision was that con¬ crete would be used throughout. However, the en¬ croachment by the concrete contractors into bridge work formerly the preserve of the U.S. steel firms did not go technically unchallenged. For the 418m-long four-lane Bonners Ferry Bridge across Ida¬ ho's Kootenai River, the contractors all chose a cable-stressed steel bridge rather than the alterna¬ tive of cast-in-place, post-tensioned concrete de¬ sign. By using cables to stress the top flange, the designers reduced by 10% the steel required for a

KEYSTONE

conventional plate-girder structure; in so doing they exploited the principles developed by the con¬ crete engineer. Generally, however, the battle be¬ tween steel and concrete continued to be waged over bridge spans of about 350 m; above that, steel still had an advantage, while concrete was more economical for the shorter spans. North America also followed Europe with the construction of large concrete cast-in-place cantile¬ vered bridges. Several such projects were under way in the U.S., including the Houston Ship Canal Bridge with a main span of 228 m. Not only was it the longest span of its kind in North America; the largest traveling forms ever made were used for pours of 60 to 84 cu m. This method of bridge construction, described as an "on-site assembly¬ line factory," reduced the need for costly labour to a minimum. In West Germany the 1,160-m-long Aichtal Bridge near Stuttgart neared completion. Most of the deck spans were 51 m long and consisted of twin concrete boxes, each 3.5 m deep and 13.5 m wide at the top, to carry two lanes of traffic. Each box was put into place with the aid of a 30-m-long steel-framed nose and by launching off the top of the already erected spans. The first 21-span deck was finished in 15 months; the second deck was scheduled to take 12 months. Following the ramming of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge by a cargo vessel in 1980, a study showed that, worldwide, a ship hit and damaged a major bridge every year. Not surprisingly, empty ships were found to be more accident-prone than loaded ships because they rode high in the water and were more sensitive to winds. Providing protec¬ tion for large bridge piers against wayward ships was costly, requiring either massive dolphins (clusters of closely driven piles) or large man-made islands. Wherever possible, therefore, very long span bridges were to be preferred so that the bridge piers could be situated on dry land. The French and British governments appeared finally to have abandoned the Channel Tunnel project, which could handle only rail traffic, and were moving in favour of a bridge crossing that could cope with the ever increasing demands of road traffic. A principal objection to such a bridge had been the possible damage if it were hit by a ship. To forestall this, engineers proposed an inge¬ nious protection of the piers utilizing a large "hy¬ draulic cushion." Each pier would be built at the centre of a water-filled flexible structure resem¬ bling a large inverted umbrella. If struck by a ship, the "umbrella" would distort inward, raising the level of the contained water and generating a hy¬ draulic head that would resist the continued move¬ ment of the ship toward the pier. Model tests indicated that this protection would be very effec¬ tive and relatively cheap. (david fisher) Buildings. The U.S. engineer Fazlur Khan (see Obituaries) pioneered the use of the "tube within a tube" principle of resisting lateral loads on tall buildings. Traditionally, lateral forces had been dealt with by either a shear wall core or by frame action. In Khan's concept advantage was taken of the external mullions and spandrel beams to pro¬ vide an external pierced tube that would share the

load with an internal core, thereby saving con¬ struction material. The recently completed 49-sto¬ ry First City Tower in Houston, Texas, used this principle. The building also made extensive use of composite steel and reinforced concrete in the floors, columns, and the elevator and service core. It was believed to be the first time that these two concepts had been used in one high-rise structure. Another recently constructed building of note in the U.S. was the 84-m-clear-span Moscone Con¬ vention Center in San Francisco. A requirement was that the main exhibition hall roof was to be at ground level and designed to support a public park, amusement area, or low-rise shop and the¬ atre buildings. In order to provide maximum headroom without having to excavate deeply into the ground and incur excessive groundwater prob¬ lems, a shallow arch solution was chosen. Because the arch was shallow, the side thrusts were large, and the ground could not carry the loads without excessive movement. The floor was therefore pre¬ stressed to fulfill a threefold function: first, to tie the arch; second, to enable an initial prestress to be put into the arch; and third, by appropriately pro¬ filing the tendons, to resist the water pressures in the ground under the floor. In Europe much use was made of the external structural frame with the roof suspended under¬ neath. Notable examples of this concept were the factory of the Fleetguard International Corp. in northwestern France and the Inmos factory in southern Wales. The object in France was to allow the perceived height of the building to be kept to a minimum and to leave the interior roof zone free for services and unhampered by internal structure. The suspension principle was continued through¬ out the building with the cooling towers, air han¬ dling units, and ducting all being supported in this way. The main steel columns were on an 18-m grid, but the suspension structure above the roof enabled the latter to be supported on a 6-m grid, thereby minimizing its structural depth and weight. The Inmos factory took a different form, having a relatively heavy spine structure housing the main services plant above the roof and using its height to support sloping tendons that provided intermediate support to long-span (36-m) steel trusses. In this way large areas uninterrupted by internal columns were provided. External framing was also used on a new gymna¬ sium in southern England for ibm. In this case the main load-bearing elements were triangular-sec¬ tion space frame portals. With spans of 18 m and a length of 21 m, the structure was not large, but in¬ teresting use was made of large-span industrial door panels for the walls. The joints between the opaque walls and roof were made with rounded, translucent, glass-reinforced plastic, double¬ skinned panels. Heating and cooling was provided by heat pumps situated above the roof and sup¬ ported on subframes between the main portal frames. Secondary supporting steelwork was not required. A recently completed institutional building of note was the European Investment Bank in Lux¬ embourg. The site chosen for the bank was the Kirchberg Plateau, a broad ridge separated from

the old city of Luxembourg by a gorge. The archi¬ tect developed a double-L plan with four fingerlike wings and chose a stratified appearance having a horizontal emphasis. The narrow wings allowed natural light and ventilation, and this showed considerable economy in energy costs over a deep plan building. The structure of the building was in concrete, partly poured at the site and partly pre¬ cast. The main concrete floor areas were of waffle construction reminiscent of the National Theatre in London and were designed by the same archi¬ tect. This type of structural form was both visually interesting and suited to relatively large spans where a shallow construction depth was required. In other areas voided precast concrete floor units provided ducts for a supplementary mechanical ventilation system as well as serving their primary structural function. An example of a successful marrying of new and old was to be seen at the library of the Roman Catholic seminary at Eichstatt, West Germany. There, what was once a yard bounded on three sides by three-story baroque buildings was en¬ closed on the fourth side by a new five-level li¬ brary, and the whole was covered with a steel and glass roof. Attention to detail helped the two styles to complement one another; the old buildings were not changed in any way.

349

Engineering Projects

(GEOFFREY M. PINFOLD)

Dams. As an outgrowth of the Safety of Dams program of the International Commission on Large Dams, public safety planning was initiated in many countries during the year. The topography in the vicinity of the dam dictates the direction and velocity of flow of water in case of a failure of the dam. Maps were being prepared to show the prob¬ able path and extent of damage that could occur. This helped planners designate evacuation routes to safety. Warning procedures were being estab¬ lished so that people living near dams could be alerted rapidly in case of danger. The Moscone Conven¬ tion Center in San Fran¬ cisco incorporated a column-free under¬ ground hall 84 metres wide.

TURNER CONSTRUCTION COMPANY

350

Engineering Projects

Dam building continued throughout the world in 1982, although activity was more pronounced in less developed countries where the demand for water for irrigation and energy was greater. Brazil had the greatest number of large dams actively under way. The main dam of the $14 billion Itaipu project was completed in October 1982, and initial power delivery from the 12,600-MW plant was scheduled to begin in April 1983. During the peak of construction 28,000 workers were employed on the project. When the plant began full operation, Brazil expected to save an equivalent of 300,000 bbl of oil per day. The dam was designed as a hollow gravity type, in which large segments are made to form a hollow chamber with the upstream face supported by two buttress sections and with a downstream face slab. This feature saved about 25% of concrete and about $130 million in cost as

compared with other gravity dams. While not the first of this type, Itaipu was the highest and largest. In Thailand and Laos the proposed Mekong Riv¬ er project would include a dam 100 m high and cost $2 billion to construct. Thailand had under way the 100-m-high Khao Laem dam, scheduled for completion in 1984. China announced plans for ten hydroelectric dams at a cost of $6.7 billion to sup¬ ply 10,000 Mw of power. During 1982 China con¬ structed more than 1,000 small hydroelectric dams. Even so the nation had developed only 3% of its hydroelectric potential. In Europe Sweden planned to construct 1,300 mini-hydroelectric plants in the next five years in order to conserve oil use. The U.S.S.R. announced plans for large-scale diversion of several Siberian rivers, the Ob, Irtysh, and Yenesey, which flow

Major World Dams Under Construction in 19821

Name of dam

River

Country

Altinkaya Amaluza Ataturk Baishan Boruca Canales Chapeton Dabaklamm Dongjiang Dry Creek El Cajon El M'Jara Grand Maison Guavio Guri (Raul Leoni) Ihla Grande Inguri Itaipu Itaparica Karakaya Kenyir Kishau La Grande No. 2 La Grande No. 3 La Grande No. 4 La Honda Lakhwar Lungyangxia Maqarin Menzelet Mihoesti Mosul Naramata Nurek Oosterschelde Oymapinar Ozkdy Porto Primavera Revelstoke Rogun Roncador Salvajina S§o Felix Sterkfontein Tehri Thein Thomson Tokuyama Tres Irmaos Tucurui Upper Wainganga Yacambu Yacyreta-Apipe Zillergriindl

Kizilirmak Paute Euphrates Songhuajiang Terraba Genii Parana Dorferbach Laishui Dry Creek Humuya Ouergha Eau d'Olle Orinoco Caroni Parana Inguri Parana Sao Francisco Euphrates Trengganu Tons La Grande La Grande La Grande Uribante Yamuna Huanghe Yarmouk Ceyhan Aries Tigris Naramata Vakhsh Vense Gat Oosterschelde Manavgat Gediz Parana Columbia Vakhsh Uruguay Cauca Tocantis Nuwejaarspruit Bhagirathi Ravi Thomson Ibi Tiete Tocantis Wainganga Yacambu Parana Ziller

Caniapiscau Chicoasen Emborcacao Finstertal Foz do Areia Gura Apelor Retezat Los Leones Sayano-Shushenskaya Wujiangdu

Caniapiscau Grijalva Paranaiba Nederbach Iguagu Riul Mare Los Leones Yenisei Wujiang

Turkey Ecuador Turkey China Costa Rica Spain Argentina Austria China U.S. Honduras Morocco France Colombia Venezuela Brazil U.S.S.R. Brazil/Paraguay Brazil Turkey Malaysia India Canada Canada Canada Venezuela India China Jordan Turkey Romania Iraq Japan U.S.S.R. The Netherlands Turkey Turkey Brazil Canada U.S.S.R. Brazil/Argentina Colombia Brazil South Africa India India Australia Japan Brazil Brazil India Venezuela Paraguay/Argentina Austria

Type2

Height (m)

E, R A E, R G E, R E, R E, G A A E A E E, R E, R E.R.G E, G A E.R.G E, R A, G E, R E, R E, R E, R E, R E G G E. R E, R E, R E E, R E E, G A E. R E, G E.R.G E E, R E, R E, R E E, R E, R E, R E. R E, G E, G E E. R E, G A

195 170 179 150 267 156 34 220 157 110 226 87 160 250 162 29 272 185 105 180 150 253 160 100 125 150 192 172 164 150 242 100 158 300 45 185 180 38 162 325 78 154 160 93 261 47 165 161 90 93 43 158 36 180

Length of crest (m)

Volume content (000) cu m)

Gross reservoir capacity (000 cu m)

604 410 1,700 677 700 340 6,550 332 438 915 382 1,600 550 461 11,409 7.060 680 7,900 4,700 420 900 360 2,835 3,855 7,243 600 440 342 700 420 242 3,600 520 704 8,400 360 420 11,385 1,615 660 1,600 368 1,950 3,060 570 878 1,275 420 3,700 10,677 181 110 65,000 505

15,310 1,157 84,500 1,663 43,000 4,733 200,000 1,000 1,389 23,000 1,480 25,000 18,450 17,000 75,700 11,573 3,880 27,000 16,530 2,000 15,900 N.A. 23,000 22,187 20,000 10,500 2,000 1,300 21,000 7,000 180 36,000 12,000 58,901 35,000 575 11,251 8,441 8,900 75,500 6,500 4,000 34,000 19,800 25,200 21,920 13,200 10,000 15,000 64,300 N.A. 3,400 73,000 980

5,763,000 120,000 48,700,000 900,000 14,960,000 7,070,000 53,700,000 235,000 8,120,000 310,000 5,650,000 4,000,000 140,000 10,000,000 136,335,000 30,000,000 1,100,000 29,000,000 11,500,000 9,580,000 13,600,000 2,400,000 61,720,000 60,020,000 19,390,000 775,000 580,000 24,700,000 486,000 19,500,000 6,000 11,100,000 90,000 10,500,000 2,000,000 310,000 940,000 18,500,000 5,310,000 11,600,000 33,580,000 773,000 55,200,000 2,656,000 3,539,000 3,670,000 1,100,000 660,000 14,200,000 43,000,000 50,700,000 427,000 21,000,000 90,000

3,493 584 1,607 652 850 460 510 1068 368

11,810 14,500 25,650 4,500 13,000 9,000 9,200 9117 1920

53,800,000 1,680,000 17,600,000 60,000 6,100,000 225,000 106,000 31,300^000 2^300^000

Major World Dams Completed in 1981 and 1982’ Canada Mexico Brazil Austria Brazil Romania Chile U.S.S.R. China

E, E, E, E. E, E. E A G

R R R R G, R R

56 245 158 150 160 168 179 242 165

1 Having a height exceeding 150 m (492 ft); or having a volume content exceeding 15 million cu m (19.6 million cu yd); or forming a reservoir exceedinq 14 800 x 10e cu m capacity (12 million ac-ft). ’ 2 Type of dam: E = earth; R = rockfill; A = arch; G = gravity. NA = not available. (j. w. MERMEL)

\

into the Arctic Ocean, to supply water to the arid lands in the Kazakh, Kirghiz, and Uzbek regions in the south. The Soviets also planned to divert the Pechora and Kolva rivers to the Volga. While these projects might take many years to complete, envi¬ ronmentalists were alarmed that they could have a worldwide impact. This scheme paralleled a simi¬ lar study for North America, which proposed that Canadian rivers be diverted to the southern Unit¬ ed States. In the Philippines a $1 billion municipal water supply project for Manila was to include the con¬ struction of a 100-m-high dam. India joined the countries interested in developing tidal power. More than $200 million was made available to study the feasibility of tidal power in the Gulf of Kutch on the nation's northwestern coast. Canada planned to build an arch dam 270 m high, the second highest in the world. The high¬ est, Inguri, was under construction in the U.S.S.R. and would be 272 m high. In the U.S. work was under way on the first roller-compacted concrete dam. Willow Creek in Oregon. Its dimensions included a volume content of 300,000 cu m, a height of 52 m, and a crest length of 518 m. It represented a major change in the method of construction of a concrete gravitytype dam. The principal difference was that damp gravel is blended with cement and spread and compacted by large, efficient earth-moving equip¬ ment, eliminating the labour-intensive, bucketby-bucket placing procedures used in the past. (t. w. mermel)

Roads. In 1982 figures revealed that there were almost 20 million km of roads in the world (1 km = 0.62 mi). Of these, 1.1 million km were in Africa, 3 million km in Asia, 4 million km in Eu¬ rope, 2 million km in Latin America, 7 million km in North America, and 1 million km in Oceania. Vehicle population using the world's roads amounted to 420 million at the end of 1981, with 180 million of those in the United States. In many of the industrialized nations revenues from vehicle and fuel taxes were no longer suffi¬ cient to meet current and projected highway fi¬ nancing needs. Inflation was raising costs at a faster rate than revenues, while the increased fuel efficiency of vehicles was reducing income from gasoline taxes. This situation, coupled with the deterioration of many major highways constructed after World War II, resulted in exploration of new methods of financing highway construction and maintenance. In the U.S. federal tax receipts fell below outlays by $5.6 billion in 1980 and $5.2 billion in 1981. Legislation to add 5 cents in taxes to the cost of each gallon of gasoline was passed by the U.S. Congress in December, with four cents dedicated to reha¬ bilitation of roads and one cent dedicated to financ¬ ing of urban transit projects. In the United Kingdom representatives of the Department of Transport proposed a road financing system under which highway contractors would arrange financ¬ ing and pay for new road projects and then would be repaid by the British government over a period of 15 years. Despite economic problems major highway pro¬

grams were initiated or completed in all conti¬ nents. Approximately 95% of the 68,260-km Interstate System in the U.S. was in service, while extensive reconstruction and rehabilitation pro¬ grams were under way on some segments of the system that had been in service for more than a quarter of a century. The Inter-American Development Bank was helping finance construction of 61,587 km of roads in eight countries in Latin America and the Carib¬ bean, with a combined value of $7,329,000,000. The last link in the section of the Pan-American Highway between Buenos Aires, Arg., and Santi¬ ago, Chile, was opened to traffic. Colombia, with 75,000 km of existing roads, was planning a $2.5 billion road construction pro¬ gram between 1982 and 1986, while Guatemala implemented a seven-year, $1.4 billion program including a four-lane highway connecting Guate¬ mala City with the Pacific port of San Jose. In Bra¬ zil a 1,500-km highway was under construction between Cuiba and Porto Velho. The Brazilian Ministry of Transport developed an important pro¬ gram of feeder highways to benefit the large agri¬ cultural population and was rebuilding approximately 1,000 km of highways in the north¬ west at a cost of $687 million. China built 10,000 km of new roads and upgrad¬ ed 4,000 km of existing roads in 1981 (latest figures available), bringing the nation's total road net¬ work to 900,000 km. Major new roads included the 965-km Yichuan-Lanzhou (Yi-ch'uan-Lan-chou) highway and the 2,000-km highway from Iqe, Qinghai (Tsinghai) Province, to Hetan (Ho-t'an). A 240-km, six-lane toll highway was under con¬ struction from Guangzhou (Canton) to Macao and Hong Kong at a cost of $420 million. Japan, with 40,000 km of roads, was planning completion of its 7,600-km national expressway system by the end of the century. A total of 5,415 km were already completed or under construction. Thirty-nine African countries submitted plans for highway projects worth $26 billion as part of the second phase of the UN Transport and Com¬ munications Decade in Africa. Included were the 1,200-km highway connecting Annaba, Constan¬ tine, Algiers, and Oran in Algeria and the 1,085km Aaium-Akjoujt road in Morocco. More than 1,800 km were completed on the Trans-European North-South Motorway, which was to pass through Austria, Bulgaria, Czechoslo¬ vakia, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Turkey, and Yugoslavia. Italy's government lifted a six-year ban on the building of new expressways and was expected to implement a new $5 billion program that included a bypass around Rome. (hugh m. gillespie)

Tunnels. Hard rock tunnel boring machines (tbm's) continued to improve their performance and reliability when used under suitable condi¬ tions. Norwegian engineers claimed a world rec¬ ord for an advance of 240.5 m in one week achieved by a Robbins 3.5-m-diameter tbm in a rock tunnel for a hydroelectric project. A tbm achieved an im¬ pressive performance at the Hausling pumped storage project in Austria, where in eight months it bored a 950-m-long, 4.2-m-diameter pressure

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Entomology:

shaft inclined at 42° through a hard grained gneiss. In the U.K. the machine-driven Kielder water tun¬ nel through hard rock between the Rivers Tyne and Tees was finally completed in 1982. The 29km-long, 3.5-m-diameter tunnel was Britain's longest. The need to ensure that ground conditions were suitable for the employment of tbm's was demon¬ strated at the Talave irrigation tunnel in Spain; during construction of the 31.6-km-long rock tun¬ nel, the longest in Spain, a roof fall buried a 4.2-mdiameter tbm, which was eventually recovered two years later. Despite the increasing use of tbm's they were unlikely to supersede drill and blast methods in the foreseeable future. In Finland the Pajainne 18sq-m-section tunnel providing water to Helsinki was completed by drill and blast methods. This 120-km-long unlined tunnel was claimed to be the longest in the world. Pipe jacking continued to increase in popularity with engineers. In the range of small diameters of from one to two metres. West German engineers developed a slurry shield for pipe jacking in which the cutting action was per¬ formed by oscillating high-pressure water jets. Jap¬ anese engineers introduced small-diameter slurry shields equipped with conventional cutting heads but operated completely by remote control from the surface. Also developed by the Japanese were large-diameter slurry shields using high-density slurry and incorporating crushers to deal with boulders up to 50 cm (20 in) in diameter. At Frankfurt am Main, West Germany, one of Europe's largest tunnel shields began to be used in 1982 on the new extensions to the city's subway. Weighing 450 metric tons, the 10.56-m-diameter shield was equipped with three excavators. The equipment could be rebuilt to excavate the 8.7-mdiameter tunnels in the same project. A new development in tunnel lining was the completion of over 1,400 m of 3.6-m-diameter lin¬ ing using fibre-reinforced concrete extruded be¬ hind the shield. It was claimed that if a waterproof lining was required the system could prove up to 30% cheaper than conventional segmental lining. The protection of tunnels and underground structures against damage by earthquake was a subject of continuing interest as more and more cities throughout the world constructed subway systems. After five years of operation, Soviet engi¬ neers reviewed the effectiveness of the measures taken to withstand seismic shocks on the subway at Tashkent. Major sections of the tunnel lining and station structures had been built using precast concrete sections to combine flexibility with strength. By 1982 more than 300 tremors had been experienced without any damage to structures in tunnels. In the U.S. bids were asked for in the construc¬ tion of the largest soft ground tunnel in the coun¬ try, at Seattle, Wash.; estimated to cost up to $100 million, it would be 19 m in diameter and 457 m long. The interesting feature of this huge tunnel was the proposed method of construction, using a minimum of 24 drifts located around the circum¬ ference. (david a. harries)

see Life Sciences

[733; 734.A]

Environment

England:

see United Kingdom English Literature:

see Literature Entertainment:

see Dance; Motion Pictures; Music; Television and Ra¬ dio; Theatre

Environment The tenth anniversary year of the 1972 UN Confer¬ ence on the Human Environment in Stockholm saw some signs of improvement in the manage¬ ment of the global environment. The continuing recession led to further cuts in the budget of the UN Environment Program (unep), and the new treaty on the Law of the Sea, though signed by 117 nations in December, failed to gain general accep¬ tance. At the same time, some hard-fought cam¬ paigns made substantial progress. Internationally, the most contentious issue was "acid rain," which was debated at a conference held in Stockholm to mark the anniversary of the 1972 conference. Here, too, there were gains, as the scientific evidence for damage caused by this type of pollution persuaded countries where the pollution originated to accept the reality of the problem. In part, the recognition was due to the political success of the environmentalist "Green" candi¬ dates in the West German elections. Partly as a result of their rising popularity and partly because of the Free Democratic Party's decline, they emerged as the third most important political par¬ ty in the country, with opinions that had to be re¬ spected. (See Biographies: Kelly, Petra.)

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION UN Environment Program. Speaking at a two-day anniversary meeting held in London on June 15-16 to review progress made by unep, a spokesman for West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt re¬ vealed that, at Schmidt's insistence, the global en¬ vironment was to be included on the agenda of the next summit meeting of Western leaders. At unep's own conference, which opened in Nairobi, Kenya, on May 10, the emphasis was on funding. Kenya's Pres. Daniel arap Moi and unep Executive Director Mustafa Tolba urged the 100 delegates to increase their contributions. Great Britain agreed to do so, from £600,000 to £750,000; Libya pledged $1 million; The Netherlands said it would raise its contribution by 50%; and Japan, Finland, Malaysia, Uganda, and Thailand all promised more. However, these offers were insufficient to offset the reduction in the U.S. contribution. In October 1981 a State Department internal docu¬ ment had proposed that the U.S. cancel its entire contribution to unep as an economy measure. It was persuaded not to take so drastic a step, but the $10 million it had been expected to contribute was reduced to $7 million, with the likelihood that in 1983 it might be lowered to $3 million. UN Conference on the Law of the Sea. During the period leading up to the final session of the third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea (unclos), several industrialized countries ex¬ pressed deep reservations about the draft treaty. It was felt that the treaty was biased toward third world countries. Also, because the proposed Inter¬ national Seabed Authority would be funded main¬ ly by taxes levied on Western firms, which were required to share the technologies they developed

WIDE WORLD

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Environment

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Mustafa Tolba, executive direc¬ tor of the United Nations Envi¬ ronment Program, urged delegates at a UNEP conference in Kenya in May to increase their financial contributions to the UNEP. At right is Philip Lea¬ key, a Kenyan MP who served as host for the meeting.

with third world countries, seabed mining could be penalized to the point of nonprofitability. unclos reconvened in New York City from March 9 to April 30. The U.S. attended but sought major changes in the treaty. On April 17 the Su¬ preme Soviet of the U.S.S.R. decreed that it would allow industrial organizations to exploit seabed mineral resources outside its territorial waters, a measure it said had been forced on it by U.S. at¬ tempts to alter the draft treaty to its own advan¬ tage. When the text of the Soviet decree was released, it appeared to contain much more detail than would have been needed for a mere tactical document to be used in negotiation. It covered safety zones around drilling sites, the notification of hazards to navigation, methods of resolving dis¬ putes with other states, and provision for nonSoviet participation in projects. The treaty, running to 175 pages in 17 parts, with 320 articles and 8 annexes, was signed at the end of the conference by most of the states present. The U.S., Israel, Turkey, and Venezuela voted against it; Great Britain, West Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, and the whole East¬ ern bloc abstained. Although the treaty covered many issues, including the establishment of 12-mi territorial and 200-mi exclusive economic zones, objections centred on its proposals for the mining of seabed minerals. On July 10 the U.S. announced it would not agree to the treaty. By the end of July it was clear that the U.S. government, with the aim of devising a "mini-treaty," was negotiating with Great Brit¬ ain, West Germany, France, Belgium, The Neth¬ erlands, Italy, and Japan to reach an agreement covered by the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act of 1980. The treaty was opened for formal signature on December 10 at Montego Bay, Jamaica, and signed by 117 nations. A number of industrialized countries besides the U.S. abstained but did not rule out the possibility of adhering at a later date. European Communities (EC). Environmental ministers of EC member countries, meeting in Brussels on Dec. 3, 1981, adopted a directive de¬

signed to regulate the discharge of mercury into water by the chloralkali industry, although no permissible limits were set. Agreement was reached on the "Seveso directive." This obliged industries to notify the authorities, local residents, and workers of stocks of dangerous chemicals they held and stipulated the quantities of particular substances that might be stored within 500 m (1,640 ft) of one another. Where installations were situated close to international frontiers, consulta¬ tions would take place directly between the gov¬ ernments involved. The EC took further steps to control the produc¬ tion and use of trichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4,5-T). In January 1982 the Commission re¬ ceived a report produced by an independent re¬ search team, which showed that the herbicide was safe provided its dioxin content was reduced. The report recommended that the permitted level for dioxin contamination be reduced to 0.005 parts per million, half the level imposed by Britain, Bel-

World’s 25 Most Populous Urban Areas1 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

City and Country Tokyo, Japan Osaka, Japan New York City, U.S. Mexico City, Mexico Sao Paulo, Brazil Cairo, Egypt London, U.K. Shanghai, China Rhine-Ruhr, West Germany Los Angeles, U.S. Buenos Aires, Argentina Beijing, China Calcutta, India Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Paris, France Seoul, South Korea Bombay, India Moscow, U.S.S.R. Nagoya, Japan Chicago, U.S. Tianjin, China Jakarta, Indonesia Chongqing, China Delhi, India Manila, Philippines

City proper Year Population 8,334,900 2,635,200 7,071,600 9,373,400 7,033,500 5,399,000 6,608,600 6,320,872

1981 1981 1980 1980 1980 1979 1981 1982

2,966,800 2,922,800 5,597,972

1980 census 1980 census 1982 census

3

4

5,093,200 2,168,300

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4

4

4

4

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4

1981 estimate 1980 census 1982 census

4

4

4

4

4

1,630,500

4

1980 census

'Ranked by population of metropolitan area. Preliminary figures. 3An industrial conurbation within which no single central city is identified. 4City proper not identified by reporting countries.

Metropolitan area Population Year 29,002,000 16,224,000 16,121,300 15,032,000 12,719,100 12,000,000 11,962,100 11,859,748 11,777,800 11,497,600 9,766,000 9,230,687 9,165,700 9,153,200 8,505,800 8,367,000 8,227,300 8,015,000 7,968,000 7,869,500 7,764,141 6,556,000 6,000,000 5,713,600 5,664,000

1981 1981 1980 1980 1980 1980 1981 1982 1980 1980 1980 1982 1981 1980 1982 1980 1981 1981 1981 1980 1982 1981 1978 1981 1980

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JIM CACCAVO/TIME MAGAZINE

354

Environment

A device weighing 350 tons and measuring 100 by 100 ft (30 by 30 m) at its base was towed into the ocean off Santa Barbara County, California, and lowered to the ocean floor. The device was designed to capture oil and gas seeping from fissures in the sea floor.

gium, and West Germany. In July the Commission recommended reduction to 0.1 parts per million immediately and, as soon as it became technically feasible, to 0.005 parts per million. At the same time, it urged governments to ensure that 2,4,5-T did not contaminate food by banning its use on ce¬ real crops, in woodlands when edible fungi were in season, and as a domestic weed killer. Acid Rain. The main air pollution issue of the year was "acid rain," which was affecting parts of North America and parts of Europe. The tenor of the debate changed as certain countries that had been skeptical in previous years — and which were regarded as principal sources of this form of pollu¬ tion-found that they, too, were its victims. On Oct. 5, 1981, the U.S. National Wildlife Federation published a report identifying 15 states east of the Mississippi in which the pH level of rain varied from 4.8 (South Carolina) to 4.1 (Mississippi). Dis¬ agreement between the U.S. and Canada over the issue continued, but it was clear that not only Can¬ ada was being affected. The Swedish government announced in Febru¬ ary 1982 that it would celebrate the anniversary of the 1972 UN conference by holding a conference in Stockholm during June 16-30, to be called "Envi¬ ronment 82" and devoted to discussion of the acid rain problem. On June 11 the British Department of the Environment was given a report by scien¬ tists at the Warren Spring Laboratory showing that, in all but 4 of 37 rural sites monitored be¬ tween 1978 and 1980, rain was as acid as in Scandi¬ navia for at least one of the years. As the conference opened, the delegates expect¬ ed West Germany to support Britain and the U.S. in opposing any action to deal with the problem effectively, but the West German government had received two shocks. The first was the growing popularity of the "Green" environmentalist politi¬ cal candidates. The second was the result of studies by Bernhard Ulrich of the University of Gotting¬ en, who had found that 40% of West German for¬ ests were suffering from damage caused by acid rain pollution. The conference ended with agree¬ ment among the signatories of the 1979 Geneva convention on transfrontier air pollution that the convention would be ratified in New York in July •V

(which it was) and would come into force by the end of the year. West Germany promised to halve its sulfur emissions. Marine Environment. A report published by unep in October stated that, while the deep oceans remained clean, coastal waters in certain areas suf¬ fered from pollution, although not yet seriously. The report called for stricter control of the dis¬ charge of sewage into coastal waters and drew at¬ tention to the condition of the southern part of the Bay of Bengal, where 1,000 tons of tar were be¬ lieved to be floating. On January 1 the Persian Gulf states assumed re¬ sponsibility for protecting the Gulf from pollution, taking over a $6 million program from unep and forming a Regional Organization for the Protec¬ tion of the Marine Environment. The organization held its first meeting in January, when plans for research projects on oceanography and oil pollu¬ tion were approved. It was also agreed to establish a centre at Bahrain to combat oil pollution and to mount an antipollution publicity campaign throughout the region. The fourth protocol of the Mediterranean Action Plan was signed in April by the 18 countries bor¬ dering the sea. The $7 million budget for 1982-84 would be contributed mainly by Italy, France, and Spain, with the EC members subscribing $400,000. Fresh Water. Tentative agreement among the five countries concerned (France, Switzerland, West Germany, Luxembourg, and The Nether¬ lands) was reached on Nov. 17, 1981, on ways to reduce pollution of the Rhine caused by the dis¬ charge of salt from French potash mines in Alsace. Under the agreement, France was to inject nearly one million tons of salt a year below ground in Al¬ sace and open a salt mine with a 500,000-ton annu¬ al capacity which would also recycle sulfur waste. Also in November 1981, the West German gov¬ ernment agreed to start discussions with the gov¬ ernments of East Germany and Czechoslovakia on ways to reduce pollution of Germany's second most important river, the Elbe. Most of its indus¬ trial pollution occurred in the East, although treat¬ ed domestic sewage and industrial effluent were added at Hamburg.

UNITED NATIONS

355

Environment

After eight years of difficult nego¬ tiations, delegates to the UN Conference on the Law of the Sea finally adopted a Law of the Sea Treaty on April 30. The treaty re¬ ceived 130 favourable votes, 4 against, and 17 abstentions.

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS “Ecopolitics.” During the year West Germany's "Greens" (the Griin-Alternative-Liste) increased their support dramatically to become the third most important political grouping in the country. On March 7 they won more than 5% of the votes in the Schleswig-Holstein state elections; on March 21, 6.5% in Lower Saxony; on June 6, 7.7% in Hamburg; and on September 26, 8% in Hesse. By the end of the year they had seats in six state par¬ liaments, and in some they held the balance of power. It seemed likely that federal elections scheduled for 1983 would bring Green representa¬ tives into the Bundestag (federal parliament). Environmentalist candidates were less success¬ ful in France. In the first round of the cantonal (lo¬ cal government) elections on March 14 they won only 0.44% of the votes cast, and in the second round, on March 21, 0.006% of the total. These fig¬ ures were little different from those achieved in the last cantonal elections, in 1979. U.S. Secretary of the Interior James G. Watt con¬ tinued to arouse hostility among environmental¬ ists. William Turnage of the Wilderness Society described as "a duplicitous hoax" Watt's promise, made in February, to "prohibit drilling or mining in the wilderness to the end of the century" in his draft bill on the subject. The objectors maintained

that, far from closing the issue of mining in wil¬ derness areas and leaving it closed, this would al¬ low it to be reopened after 18 years. The proposal did not permit the establishment of a buffer zone around protected areas, and it might exclude from protection areas being considered for designation as wilderness. The federal budget for fiscal 1983 included a 12% reduction in the operating budget of the Environ¬ mental Protection Agency (epa). This would lead to a loss of more than 1,000 jobs through natural attrition and would be reflected in reduced state and local grants made by the epa to treat wastes, recover resources, and clean lakes. In May the ad¬ ministration introduced proposals to amend the Clean Water Act; they would relax mandatory re¬ quirements for industry to treat effluent before dis¬ charging it into municipal sewers, but in general they aroused no strong opposition. However, Con¬ gress failed to act on them before it adjourned in December. Seas, Rivers, Lakes. In the U.K. the eighth re¬ port of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, dealing with oil pollution of the sea, proposed an immediate extension of territorial wa¬ ters to 12 mi. This would increase control over the movement of shipping and make it possible to se¬ cure compensation from the owners of ships that

356

Environment

caused pollution. The commission also called for better charts of British coastal waters, only 20% of which were charted adequately. In January a study by the engineering depart¬ ment of Istanbul Technical University drew atten¬ tion to serious pollution in the Bosporus and the Golden Horn, from untreated sewage, oil, market refuse, industrial wastes, and other debris. It warned that unless pollution were curbed it would begin to affect the Sea of Marmara. Fears were expressed in September over the ef¬ fects of a scheme to dam the Kara-Bogaz-Gol, a shallow water gulf linked by a narrow inlet to the Caspian Sea. Rising demands for water, combined with dry weather, had caused the water level in the Caspian to fall 2.6 m (8.5 ft) in the last 50 years, with the greatest evaporation loss occurring in shallow water. If the gulf was dammed, water could not enter from the Caspian, and one large shallow-water area would be sealed and allowed to dry. The gulf contains a large brine lake, rich in sodium sulfate that is exploited industrially, and it was feared that the scheme was already leading to contamination of the valuable brine with chlo¬ rides; eventually the Caspian might become more saline, while dry salts from the gulf might be blown onto farmlands. An October 1981 report by the U.S. Public Inter¬ est Research Group stated that toxic wastes, in¬ cluding dioxin, were being pumped from the Hyde Park, N.Y., waste dump into the Niagara River. The dump, owned by the Hooker Chemi¬ cals and Plastics Corp., was alleged to be discharg¬ ing 1,655,000,000 litres (440 million gal) of waste a day. The company offered to install a plant to clean the waste, but its opponents demanded that the waste be removed and burned, at an estimated cost of $200 million. Hooker had previously been held responsible for the dumping of wastes that led in 1978 to the evacuation of the Love Canal area of Ni¬ agara Falls. (See Toxic Substances, below.) In July 1982 the California state health depart¬ ment reported that many private wells in the state were contaminated with dbcp (dibromochloropropane), a pesticide banned in the state in 1977 after it had been in use for 20 years. Levels in wells were said to be 50 to 60 times higher than the recom¬ mended limit, and the affected area extended more than 965 km (600 mi) south from Sacramento and contained 10,000 wells. The U.K. National Water Council reported in December 1981 that financial constraints made it unlikely that resources could be diverted in the near future from maintaining existing water sup¬ plies and sewerage systems. This meant that little could be done to improve the quality of polluted rivers. In July 1982 the first provisions of Part II of the Control of Pollution Act 1974 came into force, modified to prevent members of the public from using the register of discharges into water, which water authorities were required to keep, as the basis for prosecutions. Despite the general lack of progress, in April a painted goby was caught in the River Thames. The Thames Water Board chair¬ man, Geoffrey Edwards, claimed that the river was now the cleanest metropolitan estuary in the world.

Land Conservation. During the Israeli occupa¬ tion of Sinai, scientists studied the ecology of the region, establishing the El Arish bird migration monitoring station, a field studies school near San¬ ta Caterina, and the Ras Muhammad underwater observatory. Tourists were forbidden to remove seaweed or coral from beaches for fear they might drop them in the desert and cause ecological dis¬ turbances. When Sinai was returned to Egypt in 1982, Israeli scientists offered to make all their data available to their Egyptian opposite numbers. Egyptian plans included the development of solar ponds for energy and the creation of an artificial lake in the Quattana depression, southwest of El Alamein, which lies below sea level. Inflowing water would generate power, and the salt lake formed would feed chemical industries. In February the Malaysian government an¬ nounced plans to dam the Tembelins River to pro¬ vide hydroelectric power and to form a large lake in the Taman Negara National Park. The park con¬ tains the only protected forest in the country, parts of which are believed to be 130 million years old, as well as valuable archaeological sites. The project had been suggested in 1971, but studies by Austra¬ lian and Soviet teams advised great caution, and in 1976 the scheme was shelved. On January 4 it was announced that U.K. Secre¬ tary of State for the Environment Michael Heseltine had rejected applications for two schemes to build dams on Lakes Ennerdale and Wastwater, in the Lake District, to supply water to British Nucle¬ ar Fuels Ltd. and the North West Water Authority. Late in March Heseltine announced his decision concerning the application of the National Coal Board (ncb) to open three pits in the Vale of Belvoir, a project that had been opposed strenuously by environmental and amenity groups. Hose, the only pit actually inside the vale, was rejected com¬ pletely, and the ncb was required to submit new applications for the pits at Asfordby and Saltby. Neither of these pits would be permitted to have waste tips nearby. In Norway the People's Movement to Save the Alta River ceased to oppose the planned construc¬ tion of a dam and hydroelectric plant on the river, renowned for its salmon fishing. The huge Jari Project for development of the Amazon basin in Brazil, much criticized by ecologists, was aban¬ doned by its originator, U.S. financier Daniel K. Ludwig (see Biographies), and taken over by the Brazilian government. Toxic Substances. In February the U.S. Con¬ sumer Product Safety Commission decided to ban foam insulation made from urea formaldehyde. It had been found that after installation the foam may release formaldehyde gas, a suspected carcin¬ ogen. There were fears that the downgrading of the epa would impede the program of the Organi¬ zation for Economic Cooperation and Develop¬ ment for the control of toxic chemicals. The U.S. government was accused of failing to release data. In the U.S., the Natural Resources Defense Council cited epa figures indicating that the Toxic Sub¬ stances Control Act was being implemented loosely. The report of a two-year study of contamination

WIDE WORLD

357

Environment

Members of Greenpeace, an environmental protest group, tried to prevent dumping of atomic waste by the British in the Atlan¬ tic Ocean off the north¬ west coast of Spain. The protest failed and the dumping continued.

in Michigan was published in May. Scientists from the Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York City, found that 97% of the population of Michi¬ gan was contaminated with polybrominated bi¬ phenyls (pbb's), as well as with ddt and polychlorinated biphenyls (pcb's). The pbb's re¬ sulted from an accident in 1973, when the Michi¬ gan Chemical Corp. mixed flame retardant with a feed for dairy cattle. In August the epa issued reg¬ ulations to control pcb's in electrical equipment where they might contaminate food or animal feedstuffs. The regulations would come into force on Oct. 1, 1985. On the basis of a 1980 study carried out on behalf of the epa, "Ring 3," the evacuated area farthest from Love Canal at Niagara Falls, N.Y., was de¬ clared safe for human habitation in July by the Center for Disease Control. The statement was challenged, especially by Beverly Paigen, one of a group of consultants who reviewed the original epa study for the centre. Arguing that the chemi¬ cal and statistical analyses were faulty and the sampling techniques questionable, Paigen ex¬ pressed the view that the population should not re¬ turn to the area. On March 21 an explosion at a waste tip at Graigmillar, Edinburgh, Scotland, made a crater 12 m (40 ft) deep and 27 m (90 ft) across and show¬ ered debris over a nearby housing estate. Follow¬ ing an inquiry, the Health and Safety Executive reported on September 16 that the explosion proba¬ bly had two causes. The burial 12 years earlier of eight tons of chemicals from an abandoned fire¬ works factory might have caused hydrogen to ac¬ cumulate as a result of chemical reactions involving aluminum and magnesium with acids, eventually rupturing the concrete chamber in which the materials were housed. There may also have been a spontaneous ignition of escaping, un¬

identified, chemicals or escaping gas ignited by surface fires. The team investigating the Somerset, England, village of Shipham, where lead and cadmium resi¬ dues from old mine workings had been found to be contaminating soil and garden produce, reported on September 13 that the villagers were in no dan¬ ger. They advised continued monitoring, howev¬ er, and warned people not to eat leafy vegetables grown locally, to grass over unused vegetable plots, and to prevent children from eating soil. In Britain one of the year's leading issues was the campaign to prohibit the addition of lead to petrol (gasoline). On February 8 The Times pub¬ lished a letter written on March 6, 1981, by Sir Henry Yellowlees, chief medical officer at the De¬ partment of Health and Social Security, to Sir James Hamilton, permanent secretary at the De¬ partment of Education and Science. In it. Sir Hen¬ ry said that in his view the risk to children from airborne lead was sufficiently well established to warrant action to "reduce markedly the lead con¬ tent of petrol in use in the U.K." On the same day, the British Medical Association (bma) released a statement describing environmental lead as a seri¬ ous health hazard. The Campaign for Lead-Free Air (clear) pressed its advantage by publishing on February 15 a report, commissioned from a firm of management consultants, that called for govern¬ ment action. On February 22 it was announced that Frazer Alexander, a consultant pediatrician at Newcastle General Hospital, had detected a statis¬ tical relationship between lead levels in fetal pla¬ centas and the incidence of stillbirths and fetal abnormalities. By March public opinion polls showed that some 90% of those questioned would favour a ban on lead in petrol, and there was growing support for clear in Parliament and among the medical pro-

358

Environment

WIDE WORLD

fession. On May 5 the bma approved a report by its own science and education board that acknowl¬ edged the risk of mental impairment to children from lead at levels lower than had been considered safe and called for a reduction in lead in the envi¬ ronment. A week later Michael Rutter chaired a symposium arranged by clear. Rutter was re¬ garded by the government as the most respected member of the Lawther Committee, which in its 1980 report cast doubt on the validity of evidence linking lead in petrol with brain damage. To ev¬ eryone's surprise, he sided strongly with clear. In September the government made its decision, in the form of a circular sent to local authorities by the Department of the Environment. The safe level would be reduced from 35 to 25 micrograms of lead per millilitre of blood and the permitted level of lead in petrol would be reduced from 0.4 to 0.15 grams per litre by 1986. However, exposure to lead was to be monitored by teachers, social workers, and others in close contact with children, and no funds were to be provided for remedying defects such as old and flaking paint, or for examining children to identify those with unacceptably high blood lead levels. The circular was attacked at once by several groups, including the Institution of En¬ vironmental Health Officers, the National Society for Clean Air, and the National Association of Community Health Councils for England and Wales. The debate continued with support for strict controls on environmental lead growing rapidly. In the U.S. the epa announced in August that, despite pressure from the Office of Management and Budget, gasoline would not be allowed to con¬ tain more than 1.1 grams of lead per gallon (0.24 grams per litre) as of November 1. It was estimated that the effect of the new regulation would be to reduce airborne lead by 31% after eight years. At an international symposium on asbestos held in Montreal in May, William Nicholson, professor at the Mount Sinai Medical School, forecast that more than 8,000 workers in Canada and the U.S. would die in 1982 as a result of exposure to asbes¬ tos, and the toll might be expected to reach 10,000 a year by 1990. In Britain calls for a total ban on as¬ bestos intensified following the screening in July of a television documentary, "Alice: A Fight for Life." Two leading British manufacturers of asbes¬ tos products faced compensation claims running into millions of dollars, mainly from employees of their U.S. subsidiaries. In August the Manville Corp., the largest producer of asbestos in the U.S., filed for protection from creditors under Chapter 11 of the federal bankruptcy laws. Although Man¬ ville had suffered some losses, the chief reason for the move was the large number of lawsuits —esti¬ mated in the thousands —that had been filed against the firm by persons who claimed they had suffered permanent damage as a result of exposure to asbestos. Pesticides. It was alleged in April that the U.S. State Department was considering resumption of a program — conducted with the cooperation of the Mexican authorities — to destroy Mexican marijua¬ na crops by spraying them with the herbicide par¬ aquat. An earlier spraying program had been

People complaining about the leakage of radiation paraded in front of the Rochester (New York) Gas and Electric building in January. The Ginna nuclear power plant, owned by the compa¬ ny, had released radiation when a pipe broke.

successful, but growers were said to have moved to new sites. Doubts about the health risks of smoking marijuana contaminated with paraquat had been not so much resolved as evaded by mix¬ ing the herbicide with capsules of a foul-smelling substance, dilimonen-dimercaptan, known as "es¬ sence of skunk." The capsules adhere to the plant and remain stable until heated to the 800° C achieved when the leaf is smoked; at that point they burst, warning the smoker that the leaf is contaminated. It was reported in August that Electronorte, the Brazilian state power company, planned to spray defoliants containing 2,4-D and 2,4,5-T over a large area of rain forest that was to be cleared to make way for dams on the Amazon. The area in¬ cluded Indian reserves and a designated biological reserve. A proposal for a research project to test the scheme led to sharp disagreement between the country's environment minister, Paulo Noguiera Neto, who opposed the project, and Enrique Bergamin, director of the National Institute for Ama¬ zonian Research, who favoured it. Atmospheric Pollution. Smog continued to be a serious problem in Athens. High levels of smog continued for several days in November 1981, even after some 65 factories in the Attica area had been ordered to reduce production by 30%. On Jan. 11, 1982, mild weather encouraged smog lev¬ els to rise again, and a 30% reduction in output was imposed on all factories in the Athens-Piraeus area for 24 hours. In June the smog returned, and private cars and trucks were banned from the cen¬ tre of Athens between 8 am and 4 pm from Mon¬ days to Fridays; outside the prohibited area, vehicles were allowed on alternate days, depend-

ing on whether their license numbers ended with an odd or even digit. The scheme was not entirely successful; taxis were permitted to operate, and many moved into Athens from other areas. All schools were closed in Ankara, Turkey, on January 11, and automobile travel was restricted as air pollution levels rose. Carbon monoxide con¬ centrations reached 141 mg per cu cm of air, more than double the acceptable maximum, and sulfuric acid levels rose to 520 mg per cu cm, compared with an acceptable maximum of 150. Children un¬ der 12, persons over 50, and sufferers from respira¬ tory complaints were advised to remain indoors. In April the U.K. Department of the Environ¬ ment reduced substantially its funding of research into air pollution. This affected investigations of the effects of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons (cfc's), photochemical pollution, and the atmo¬ spheric chemistry and effects of sulfur and nitro¬ gen oxides. There was a disagreement between the department and the Greater London Council (glc), which continued through the year. The de¬ partment claimed that during the winter of 198081 sulfur dioxide pollution levels in London were below the acceptable limits and that no further action was needed. The glc disagreed; in July it published a report claiming that air in London contained more sulfur dioxide than that of any other British city and exceeded the EC limit until the exceptional winter of 1980-81. Ozone, produced mainly by vehicle exhausts, might be causing crop losses valued at $3.1 million a year, according to figures published in February by the U.S. National Crop Loss Assessment Net¬ work. However, fears that cfc compounds might be damaging the atmospheric ozone layer receded. The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Admin¬ istration published figures showing estimated de¬ pletion by the end of the century to be between 5 and 9%, compared with 15-18% in earlier predictions. Nuclear Protest. Greenpeace, the environmen¬ tal protest group, attempted to halt the dumping of radioactive waste on two occasions in 1982. On August 5 the Greenpeace ship "Sirius" sailed from Amsterdam with 27 people on board and intercept¬ ed the British cargo ship "Gem" 788 km (490 mi) from the northwest coast of Spain. Protesters occu¬ pied all four of the platforms from which waste canisters were to be dumped, but the crew of the "Gem" improvised new platforms and continued dumping. The action ended on August 13, shortly before the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority's appli¬ cation for an injunction was to be heard in an Am¬ sterdam court. On September 8 three Greenpeace members seized cranes used to dump waste on board the Dutch ship "Rijnborg" and occupied the crane cabins for a short time. On the night of January 18, five shells fired from a 1960s-vintage Soviet bazooka at a range of 600 m (2,000 ft) struck the Super-Phenix fast breeder re¬ actor under construction at Creys-Malville, France. Two shells hit the steam generator, one hit the reactor building, and two entered the reactor building and struck maintenance equipment. Damage was slight and did not delay work on the plant. Two hours after the attack, police were in¬

formed by telephone that a "pacifist ecologist" group was responsible. The only violent antinuclear demonstration of the year took place in France, at the Chooz nuclear site at Viruex-Molhin in the Ardennes, on the weekend of June 26-27. Following a peaceful pro¬ test involving about 500 people but watched by more than 1,000 motorized and riot police with three light armoured tanks and a helicopter, about 100 demonstrators hid in a steel factory and fought police by throwing stones, metal bolts, and gaso¬ line bombs. Four demonstrators and 13 police were injured, and a five-year-old girl was struck in the face by a tear gas canister. In an earlier demonstra¬ tion at the site, on March 27, Belgian protesters re¬ leased balloons and threw gasoline bombs. They hoped to persuade their own government to with¬ draw from the joint Franco-Belgian project. Urban Problems. In an attempt to prevent the building of a third runway, hundreds of demon¬ strators blockaded the Frankfurt am Main, West Germany, airport on Nov. 15, 1981. They used burning barricades made from tree trunks and branches, parked cars, and their own bodies to block approach roads. Police replied with water cannon when they were pelted with sticks at one of the airport entrances and by sticks, stones, and gasoline bombs near the building site. On Jan. 30, 1982, the demonstrations resumed. Police estimat¬ ed the crowd at 8,000 and the demonstrators placed it at 20,000; 90 were arrested. The Citizens Action Group said more than 100 people were in¬ jured; police said 104 of their own men were hurt, 6 of them seriously. The following day another crowd of several hundred was dispersed by police. The Citizens Action Group, which favoured peaceful protest, believed other organized groups had joined the demonstration and started the vio¬ lence; they claimed to have photographs that showed the same men attacking uniformed police and arresting demonstrators. On April 26 squatters were evicted from a house in the Kreuzberg district of West Berlin, and dur¬ ing the following two days some 3,000 people dem¬ onstrated in protest. The protest was mainly peaceful, but on both nights about 200 youths riot¬ ed. Eight policemen were injured, there was con¬ siderable damage to property, and some 24 demonstrators were arrested. Rioting also followed the eviction of squatters from a building in Am¬ sterdam in October. The building, which had been the centre of serious rioting in 1980, was acquired by the municipality earlier in 1982 for the purpose of housing other homeless families. (MICHAEL ALLABY)

WILDLIFE CONSERVATION On Jan. 31, 1982, ten Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) were released into the open desert in Oman under strict legal protection. Twenty years earlier, when a few of these oryx still existed in the wild. Opera¬ tion Oryx was launched by the Fauna Preservation Society (now the Fauna and Flora Preservation So¬ ciety, ffps) in an attempt to save the species from extermination by captive breeding. This was final¬ ly accomplished in the U.S. The Harasis tribe in Oman were to be the guards of the rehabilitated

359

Environment

360

Environment

oryx. A calf was born in March, raising the num¬ ber of animals to 11. During the Southern Hemisphere spring and summer, the New Zealand Wildlife Service joined forces with the Royal Forest and Bird Society to save the unique black stilt from extermination. Predator-proof fences were built in the Lake Tekapo region, nesting areas were guarded, and eggs in places at risk were transferred to safer places. The result was 13 fully fledged young, the biggest increase in the black stilt population in five years. For many years the world's chelonians (tortoises and turtles) had been the subject of anxious study by both scientists and conservationists, in the course of which egg-laying turtles were turned on their backs for tagging. In May the Marine Turtles Newsletter drew attention to the possibility that such treatment might rupture the eggs within a fe¬ male turtle and result in breeding failure or even death. In Western Australia improved regulations were issued to protect both sea turtles and the dugong (Dugong dugong) in Shark Bay. Stakes for fishnets in the seabed were banned and hourly attention to all nets became compulsory. On May 4 Spain acceded to the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance (the Ramsar Convention), thereby guaranteeing two habitats vital for migrating waterfowl —the Donana and the Daimiel. In the U.S., also in May, a decision to open up for development 2.6 million ha (9 million ac) of the California coast posed a threat to the

whole Californian habitat of the sea otter. Follow¬ ing the ten-year-old ban on the use of the pesticide ddt in the U.S., some birds such as bald eagles, brown pelicans, and ospreys showed signs of in¬ creasing due to an improvement in egg fertility. However, birds migrating from South America, where ddt was still used, remained at risk. The Charles Darwin research station in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador, reintroduced 37 young land iguanas from captivity into their native habitat on Isabella Island; 115 young giant tortoises were al¬ ready reestablished there. In South Africa two extraordinary threats arose to the Cape vulture (Gyps caprotheres), a vulner¬ able species. These vultures used to rely on hyenas to break the larger carcass bones of carrion and so provide bone fragments from which the young vultures obtained calcium for bone building. With the hyenas gone, the larger bones remained un¬ broken. The other threat to the vultures was elec¬ trocution on existing types of electricity towers. Fortunately, the Vulture Study Group persuaded the Electricity Supply Commission to modify its towers and itself established "vulture restaurants" to provide suitable bones in nesting areas. Following the discovery in September 1981 in Wyoming of a black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes), the first seen since 1979, 24 of these ferrets had been found. Formerly they inhabited the prai¬ rie-dog (marmot) "towns" as a predator on the "dogs," but they had vanished with the cultiva-

A man carries a fawn which he cap¬ tured in the Florida Everglades. Con¬ servationists tried to save as many deer as they could from starvation or from hunters who were authorized to thin out the herds.

up;

tion of the prairies and the disappearance of the "dogs" on which they preyed. As long ago as 1918, the naturalist E. W. Nelson had foretold the end of the black-footed ferret as a result of the inevitable extinction of the prairie dog. Although the ferret's newly found area was already threatened by de¬ velopment, urgent measures, with adequate fi¬ nancial support, might still save this species. In June 1982 Eric Endrom, writing in Oryx (the journal of the ffps), reported the extinction of the square-lipped (or white) rhinoceros in Uganda ("white" is a corruption of the Afrikaans word weit, meaning wide). The price obtainable for rhi¬ noceros horn in East Africa, nearly $700 per kilo, and lawlessness in Uganda were to blame. The subspecies of the square-lipped rhinoceros in South Africa remained in good numbers, under careful conservation, and all rhinoceros hunting had been forbidden in Zambia since January to protect the black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis). A new threat to the rarest of rhinoceroses, the Javan rhinoceros (Rhinoceros sondaicus), arose in the Ujong Kulon reserve, Java, where disease, possi¬ bly anthrax, killed 5 of the remaining population of between 40 and 60. In June the Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats came into force. All countries in the EC undertook to protect endangered species, including birds of prey and owls. No less urgent was the strict protection to be given to tortoises, especially the Mediterranean land tortoise (Testudo hermanni) and the Greek tor¬ toise (Testudo graeca). Both were threatened by the pet trade, especially to England, where as late as 1960 tons of tortoises were imported annually (about 3,000 tortoises per ton), few of which sur¬ vived their first winter. Credit for the recent re¬ duction in this traffic was due to the Universities Federation for Animal Welfare, the ffps, and the Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals. In July the Vincent Wildlife Trust published its Otter Survey of Ireland. The European otter, known by farmers in the west of Ireland, in Gael¬ ic, as dobharchu ("dark hound") or madra uisce ("water dog") and protected under the Republic of Ireland Wildlife Act, was shown to retain a fair population in the wetland areas of Ireland —areas regarded as of international ecological importance. The density of Ireland's otter population surpassed densities in Scotland, Wales, and England (rank¬ ing in that order) by a comfortable margin. In Australia the dispute between conservation¬ ists and the growing kangaroo products industry was heightened by the showing of Goodbye Joey, a graphic documentary on kangaroo hunting. Con¬ servationists hoped to convince the U.S. to rein¬ state its ban on the importation of kangaroo products, lifted in 1980 on the grounds that kanga¬ roo numbers were larger than previously thought. In July the International Whaling Commission (iwc), meeting in Brighton, England, resolved to phase out commercial whaling entirely after three more years. But the resolution, opposed by Brazil, Iceland, Japan, Korea, and Norway, was dearly bought by an increase in quotas for some species during the intervening period. Moreover, the res¬

olution could be revoked at either of the iwc's next two meetings. In August the International Union for Conserva¬ tion of Nature, in conjunction with the World Wildlife Fund, opened an office in Tokyo under the name Traffic Japan. This followed Japan's ac¬ ceptance, in 1980, of the Convention on Interna¬ tional Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (cites). Traffic Japan would help the Japanese authorities bring the huge trade in wild¬ life and its products, centred in Japan, within the bounds of cites regulations. It would also play an educational role. (c. l. boyle)

361

Equatorial Guinea

See also Agriculture and Food Supplies; Energy; Fisher¬ ies; Historic Preservation; Life Sciences; Transportation. [355.D; 525.A.3.g and B.4.f.i; 534.E.2.a; 724.A; 737.C.1]

Equatorial Guinea The African republic of Equatorial Guinea consists of Rio Muni, which is bordered by Cameroon on the north, Gabon on the east and south, and the Atlantic Ocean on the west; and the offshore is¬ lands of Bioko and Annobon. Area: 28,051 sq km (10,831 sq mi). Pop. (1982 est.): 380,000. Cap. and largest city: Malabo, on Bioko (pop., 1974 est., 25,000). Language: Spanish. Religion (1980): Christian 88.8%; tribal 4.6%; atheist 1.4%; Muslim 0.5%; other 0.2%; none 4.5%. President of the Su¬ preme Military Council in 1982, Lieut. Col. Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo. Relations with Spain were the most important aspect of Equatorial Guinea's politics during 1982. Spain took charge of security arrangements, send¬ ing two Guinean security force companies to Spain for training. At the same time, the Army was to have Spanish instructors, and Spanish advisers, experts, and technicians were in the country. Pres. Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo said he wanted Spain to become the predominant foreign influ¬ ence again. In October the first Hispano-African conference was held in Malabo. Exports to Spain exceeded 1 billion pesetas in value for the first time. In contrast, however, a top Guinean official, Severo Moto, fled to Spain, allegedly forced out on the grounds that he was too pro-Spanish. In April an International Conference of Donors met in Geneva to consider a program of rehabilita-

Equatorial Guinea

EQUATORIAL GUINEA Education. (1973-74) Primary, pupils 35,977, teachers 630; secondary (1975-76), pupils 3,984, teachers 115; vo¬ cational (1975-76), pupils 370, teachers 29; teacher train¬ ing (1975-76), students 169, teachers 21. Finance and Trade. Monetary unit: ekwele (bikwele for more than one), with (Sept. 20,1982) a par value of EK2 to 1 Spanish peseta (free rate of EK225 = U.S. $1; EK385 = £1 sterling). Budget (1981 est.): revenue EK1,951,000,000; expenditure EK2,025,000,000. Foreign trade (1981): imports c. U.S. $58 million; exports c. U.S. $26 million. Import sources: Spain c. 54%; China c. 17%; Italy c. 12%; France c. 6%. Export destinations: Spain 40%; The Netherlands c. 28%; West Germany c. 23%. Main exports (1975): cocoa c. 60%; coffee c. 30%. Agriculture. Production (in 000; metric tons; 1981): sweet potatoes c. 34; cassava c. 54; bananas c. 16; cocoa c. 8; coffee c. 6; palm kernels c. 3; palm oil c. 5. Livestock (in 000; 1981): sheep c. 34; cattle c. 4; pigs c. 4; goats c. 7; chickens c. 134.

Epidemics: see Health and Dis¬ ease Episcopal Church: see Religion

GAMMA/LIAISON

362

i vi 1*11 «

Equestrian Sports