Technology Review (May 2005)

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HOW YOUR BRAIN THINKS ABOUT MONEY p74 + IBM’S R&D REVOLUTION p32

MIT’s Magazine of Innovation

10 EMERGING +Special Issue

TECHNOLOGIES

They’re y raw. But they’ll y transform the Internet, computing, p g, medicine, energy–and more. p43

Plus

MAY 2005

USA $4.99 • CANADA $6.99

Every Book Ever Written, Free Online By Wade Roush p54

Did Greenspan Get Tech? By Roger Lowenstein p78

What’s Wrong with Environmentalism By Stewart Brand p60

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Contents 8

People and Organizations Index A guide to what’s in this issue

12 From the Editor The rules of innovation 15 Letters Readers take stock of our March “Tech and Finance 2005” package.

R EADM E

Read before operating this magazine 16 Vanquish the Cell-Phone Virus Wireless devices can easily wreak electronic havoc. 17 The Death of Libraries? Digitization of print could reduce today’s libraries to musty archives. 17 Fossilized Policy Alternative electricity sources are ready; Washington is not. 18 Banking on Technology The next Fed chief should study what Greenspan got right.

Volume 108, Number 5

10 Emerging Technologies Of the numerous technologies now in gestation at companies and universities, we have chosen 10 that we think will make particularly big splashes. They range from bacterial factories to silicon photonics to quantum wires—and any one of them could change your world. Cell-phone viruses, p. 50

43

DATA M I N E

M EGAPHON E

A story best told with numbers

By invitation

30 Emerging Energy Technologies Trends in their supply and demand By Stacy Lawrence

40 Whither the Renaissance Man? We need to save the diversity of the individual. By Michael Hawley

FI NANCIAL I N DICES

The TR Large-Cap 100 and Small-Cap 50

F E AT U R E S

31 British Invasion BAE Systems and WPP Group advance. By Duff McDonald

43

21 Wind Power Upgrade Turbine technology looms large. 22 Surgical Frontiersman Transplant pioneer Thomas Starzl

B R I E F CAS E

F O R WA R D

Emerging technologies in brief

Business case studies 24 Science Wants to Be Free The argument for open-access journals 25 Advertisers: Game On Video games are a growing market.

32 Research in Development IBM builds services-based R&D. By Michael Fitzgerald

26 All-Access Digital Inktomi’s founder wants wireless for all.

36 Starting Up, Post-Bubble Two search veterans want to do it again. By Wade Roush

27 Deciphering DNA, Top Speed Helicos BioSciences and sequencing And more...

39 A Breakthrough Isn’t Enough Transmeta was to be a marketgrabbing pioneer in chips.

C OV E R S TO RY

10 Emerging Technologies Edited by Herb Brody 54 The Infinite Library Does Google’s plan to digitize millions of print books spell the death of libraries—or their rebirth? By Wade Roush 60 Environmental Heresies The founder of The Whole Earth Catalog believes the environmental movement will soon reverse its position on four core issues. By Stewart Brand

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Contents DEMO

O B I T UA RY

Technology revealed

88 Father of Prozac Nation Julius Axelrod’s research helped launch the multibillion-dollar antidepressant market. By Andrew P. Madden

66 Big Spenders These six men oversee more than $120 billion in research and technology investments in the United States. By Corie Lok

M E G AS C O P E

A look at the big picture 66 DEMO

Pitch me Portraits of six men who spend big on tech

73 The Trouble with the Meter Why the metric system may never rule By Ed Tenner

R E V I E WS

Three controversies explored 74 The Economics of Brains A collection of research papers touts the promise of neuroeconomics. By Gregory T. Huang

74 R E V I E WS

What are they thinking? Neuroeconomics might have the answer.

On our website, Stu Hutson gets us up to date on the latest news in grid computing, digital rights management, RNA interference, nanowires, biometrics, flexible transistors, and glycomics.

81 Greenhouse Gas Michael Crichton’s new novel fingers the wrong villains in global warming. By Joseph Romm

Plus: Charles Ferguson, who wrote our January 2005 cover story “What’s Next for Google?”, got so much thought-provoking feedback from Technology Review readers that he decided to further explore Microsoft’s role in the digital world. (In his magazine piece, he contended that Google ought not underestimate Microsoft.) Ferguson is an entrepreneur who, in 1995, sold Vermeer Technologies to Microsoft for $130 million.

FROM TH E LAB

82 Information Technology 83 Biotechnology 86 Nanotechnology

O B I T UA RY

Julius Axelrod The Nobel Prize–winning pharmacologist paved the way for antidepressant drugs.

For the fourth year, Technology Review has chosen 10 emerging technologies that our editors believe will change the world. How have our past picks turned out? We were curious, and thought you might be too.

78 How the Fed Learned to Love Technology Alan Greenspan avoided the mistakes of his Federal Reserve predecessor. By Roger Lowenstein

New publications, experiments, and breakthroughs—and what they mean

88

What’s new at technologyreview.com

About Technology Review Technology Review, the oldest technology magazine in the world, is published by Technology Review, Inc., an independent media company owned by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Founded in 1899, Technology Review describes emerging technologies and analyzes their commercial, economic, social, and political impact for an audience of senior executives, researchers, financiers, and policymakers, as well as for the MIT alumni. In addition, Technology Review, Inc. produces technologyreview.com, a website that offers daily news and opinion on emerging technologies. It also produces live events such as the Emerging Technologies Conference. The views expressed in Technology Review are not necessarily those of MIT.

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People and Organizations Index PEOPLE

Aaron, Roy . . . . . . . . . . . . .51 Afeyan, Noubar . . . . . . . . .27 Agnoli, Paolo . . . . . . . . . . .73 Alder, Ken . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73 Allen, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Anwar, Mekhail . . . . . . . . 86 Atwater, Harry . . . . . . . . . .83 Axelrod, Julius . . . . . . . . . 88 Barrett, Rob . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Bernheim, Douglas. . . . . .74 Bernoulli, Daniel . . . . . . . .74 Berns, Gregory . . . . . . . . .74 Bremner, Robert . . . . . . . .78 Brewer, Eric . . . . . . . . . . . .26 Brin, Sergey . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Brown, Patrick . . . . . . . . . .24 Burattini, Tito Livio . . . . . .73 Camerer, Colin. . . . . . . . . .74 Casey, Graham . . . . . . . . .85 Castle, Arthur . . . . . . . . . . 46 Chesbrough, Henry . . . . .32 Church, George. . . . . . . . .27 Collins, James . . . . . . . . . 48 Cooper, David. . . . . . . . . . 86

Crichton, Michael . . . . . . .81 D’Agostini, Giulio. . . . . . . .73 Dietrich, Brenda . . . . . . . .32 Ditzel, David . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Ehrlich, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Eisen, Michael . . . . . . . . . .24 Eisenhower, Dwight . . . . .78 Elovici, Yuval. . . . . . . . . . . .25 Eschenbach, Andrew von . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Fauchet, Philippe . . . . . . .45 Franklin, Benjamin . . . . . 40 Gladstone, William . . . . . 54 Greenspan, Alan . . . . . . . .78 Griffin, Stephen . . . . . . . . 54 Hansen, James . . . . . . . . .81 Herr, Hugh . . . . . . . . . . . . .51 Holden, Tony . . . . . . . . . . .23 Horn, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Jalali, Bahram . . . . . . . . . .45 Johnson, Lyndon. . . . . . . .78 Johnson, Sally . . . . . . . . . 44 Kahle, Brewster. . . . . . . . 54 Kahneman, Daniel . . . . . .74

Kappe, Stefan . . . . . . . . . .83 Katabi, Dina . . . . . . . . . . . .82 Keasling, Jay . . . . . . . . . . 48 Kennedy, John F.. . . . . . . .78 Kenyon, Dave. . . . . . . . . . 44 Knutson, Brian. . . . . . . . . .74 Kuekes, Phil . . . . . . . . . . . .82 LaMattina, John . . . . . . . 66 Lapidus, Stan . . . . . . . . . . .27 Laughlin, Maren . . . . . . . 46 Lo, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . .74 Lovelock, James . . . . . . . 60 Lovins, Amory . . . . . . . . . 60 Lu, Jianping . . . . . . . . . . . .45 Lyons, Jim . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Maglio, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Martin, William McChesney Jr. . .78 Matuschewski, Kai . . . . . .83 McClure, Samuel . . . . . . .74 McGaw, Steve . . . . . . . . . 66 McGowan, John . . . . . . . .21 Michaels, Patrick. . . . . . . .81 Miller, Douglas . . . . . . . . . 48

Milne, Ronald . . . . . . . . . . 54 Moore, Patrick . . . . . . . . . 60 Morgenstern, Oskar. . . . .74 Morris, Robert . . . . . . . . . .32 Nakagura, Shin . . . . . . . . 36 Nathan, Krishna . . . . . . . .32 Neumann, John von. . . . .74 Neuwirth, Robert. . . . . . . 60 Page, Larry . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Paniccia, Mario . . . . . . . . .45 Peterson, Richard . . . . . . .74 Poehler, Theodore . . . . . 66 Quake, Stephen . . . . . . . .27 Rangel, Antonio. . . . . . . . .74 Repin, Dmitry . . . . . . . . . . .74 Rivlin, Alice . . . . . . . . . . . . .78 Rousso, Itay . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Rueckes, Thomas . . . . . . 48 Rugar, Daniel . . . . . . . . . . 46 Rust, Roland. . . . . . . . . . . .32 Schmergel, Greg. . . . . . . .47 Schneier, Bruce. . . . . . . . 50 Serearuno, Matee. . . . . . .23 Shapira, Bracha. . . . . . . . .25

Smalley, Richard . . . . . . . .45 Smith, Abby . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Smith, Tony . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 Soros, George . . . . . . . . . 39 Spohrer, Jim . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Starzl, Thomas . . . . . . . . . .22 Stringer, Howard. . . . . . . .31 Strong, Gary . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Thistlethwaite, J. Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 Thresher, Bob . . . . . . . . . .21 Valentine, Don . . . . . . . . . 66 “ValleZ”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Varmus, Harold . . . . . . . . .24 Volcker, Paul. . . . . . . . . . . .78 Waters, Donald . . . . . . . . 54 Wilkin, John . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Witteveen, Travis . . . . . . . 50 Wojcicki, Susan . . . . . . . . 54 Wynne, Michael . . . . . . . . 66 Yang, Michael. . . . . . . . . . 36 Yazawa, Yoshiaka . . . . . . .85 Yun, Yeogirl . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

O R G A N I Z AT I O N S

454 Life Sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Advanced Micro Devices . . . . . . . 39 Akamai Technologies . . . . . . . . . . 82 Alexa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Amazon.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36, 54 American Library Association. . . 54 Amyris Biotechnologies . . . . . . . . 48 AT&T Wireless . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 BAE Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Become.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Ben-Gurion University of the Negev . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Bidamic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Boston University . . . . . . . . . . .48, 74 Brown University. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Caltech. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74, 83 Canadian Hydro Developers. . . . 21 Celera Genomics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Cingular Wireless . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 City College of New York. . . . . . . 88 Cleveland Clinic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 Columbia University. . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Corbis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Data Design Interactive . . . . . . . . 25 DoubleFusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Emory University. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Excite . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Federal Reserve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

F-Secure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Fujitsu. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 General Electric . . . . . . . . . . . 21, 32 George Washington University . 88 Google . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36, 54 Greenpeace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Harvard University . . .27, 47, 54, 86 Heidelberg University . . . . . . . . . . 83 Helicos BioSciences . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Hewlett-Packard. . . . . . . . . . . . 47, 82 Hitachi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 IBM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32, 46, 47 inGamePartners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Inktomi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 InnoPath Software . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Institute for OneWorld Health. . . 48 Intel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39, 45 Jango . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Jazz Multimedia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Johns Hopkins University . . . . . . 66 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 LSI Logic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Market Psychology Consulting . 74 Massachusetts General Hospital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Massive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 McAfee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Metabolon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 MIT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51, 74, 82, 86

Motorola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 mySimon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Nantero . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 NASA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 National Institutes of Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46, 66, 88 National Research Council . . . . . 81 National Science Foundation . . . 54 National Wind Technology Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 NEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 New York Public Library. . . . . . . . 54 New York University. . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Northwestern University. . . . .22, 73 One-Oh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Össur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Pennsylvania State University . . 49 Pfizer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Phenomenome Discoveries . . . . 46 PricewaterhouseCoopers . . . . . . 32 Princeton University. . . . . . . . .74, 82 Public Library of Science . . . . . . . 24 Repower Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Rice University. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Samsung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Seattle Biomedical Research Institute . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 Seoul National University. . . . . . . 36 Sequoia Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

Sony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31, 39 Stanford University . 24, 36, 54, 74 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Tibco Software . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Transcosmos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Transmeta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 United Defense Industries. . . . . . 31 United Keys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 University of California, Berkeley . . . . . . . . . . . 26, 32, 36,48 University of California, Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45, 54 University of Cambridge. . . . . . . . 23 University of Chicago . . . . . . . . . . 22 University of Maryland . . . . . . . . . 32 University of Massachusetts. . . . 21 University of Michigan. . . . . . . . . . 54 University of North Carolina . . . . 45 University of Oxford. . . . . . . . . . . . 54 University of Pittsburgh . . . . 22, 86 U.S. Air Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 U.S. Department of Agriculture . 26 U.S. Department of Defense. . . . 66 U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 U.S. Food and Drug Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 WPP Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Xerox . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Solexa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

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From the Editor Jason Pontin

The Rules of Innovation ny sufficiently radical invention seems ri- purchased by CMGI, a services company, in Waltham, MA; and diculous to most people when they irst encounter was distributed by AT&T and FreeServe as their preferred it. This is a rule of technological innovation. instant-messaging software. In 1998, I ate lunch with an entrepreneur at a But John McAfee’s entrepreneurial career suggests another, vegetarian restaurant in San Francisco. The entre- less happy rule of innovation: the irst attempt to commercialize preneur, an ascetic and a yogi with startling blue eyes, spooned a an invention almost never succeeds. lone bowl of bean soup and told me, “Software is a living tree.” There are two reasons for this. First, the innovator is often He said he had invented a new kind of software called PowWow early: the really important market for the invention does not yet that “would allow people to run in tribes on the Internet.” He exist. Second (the point is related), the innovator doesn’t know boasted that Tribal Voice, his new venture, would be the physical how to make money from the invention: the business model that manifestation of what Indian shamans call “the golden thread.” will support the invention is imperfectly understood. Usually, I was nonplussed. therefore, another organization succeeds where the innovator Yet Tribal Voice could not be immediately dismissed, be- failed. This is sometimes called the Second-Mover Advantage. cause the entrepreneur was John McAfee, the founder of the There are many examples of this advantage. Apple invented antivirus company McAfee Associates, for the Newton, but Palm successfully commercialsome years the most proitable company on ized the personal digital assistant. Microsoft John McAfee’s earth. In 1989, when McAfee Associates was didn’t create the personal computer, but because entrepreneurial starting up, its business seemed as ridiculous the company controlled the “platform” for softas Tribal Voice did in 1998. It gave away its ware, it beneited most from the PC. career suggests most important program, VirusScan, and sold John McAfee’s two companies nicely conanother rule of licenses and support to corporations. This form to this rule. McAfee Associates proited idea had made John McAfee supremely rich. from the freeware movement where the irst, innovation: the McAfee conceived of his irst company afcountercultural freeware developers did not. But first attempt to ter posting free antivirus software on elecTribal Voice collapsed in early 2000 when AOL, tronic bulletin boards. This “freeware” was commercialize an a mortal enemy of CMGI, blocked PowWow very popular: computer users could download traic completely, thereby isolating PowWow invention almost and use it without worrying about infringing users from the largest community of IM users. copyright. Although information technology Tribal Voice was the innovator in two emergnever succeeds. managers never planned it, the computers they ing markets, now much in the news, whose dymanaged were soon protected mainly by VirusScan. McAfee’s namics are still only partially known. The irst is multiprotocol great insight was that corporations would buy expensive licenses IM. The second is social networking. Today, thriving companies and premium services for free software their employees were al- like Cerulean Studios and LinkedIn can be found in both marready using. This innovation became the business model of the kets. But John McAfee was there irst, even if he didn’t know Internet and today is employed by most software companies. how to make money from Tribal Voice. Tribal Voice was equally inventive. PowWow allowed comJohn McAfee’s inventions were maddeningly diicult to puter users to instantaneously communicate with other users judge. This was not only because of their novelty. He was unable with similar interests. From 1994 to 2001, more than eight mil- to describe his businesses except in New Age aphorisms. He lion people congregated in “tribes” using PowWow. Tribal liked to say, “Software wants to be free.” But Walter Kortschak, Voice was arguably the irst social-networking company and the venture capitalist at Summit Partners who invested in Tribal among the irst to distribute a multiprotocol instant-messaging Voice, thought McAfee was a canny old hippie. He once told Red (IM) program—that is, software that works with multiple IM Herring, the magazine I used to edit, “John has an incredible standards and providers so that anyone registered with Yahoo’s appreciation of how to make money. The rest is just bull....” instant-message service, say, can exchange messages with budToday, McAfee practices yoga at his several homes in Hawaii dies at AOL. Tribal Voice raised $10 million from Summit Part- and Colorado. Do you believe in the Second-Mover Advantage? ners in Palo Alto, CA, and TA Associates in Boston, MA; was Write to me at [email protected]. ■

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FROM THE EDITOR

T E CH N O L O G Y R E V I E W

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Letters

FO LLOW TH E M O N EY

Jason Pontin’s editorial “The Crisis in Tech Finance” (March 2005) brings out an important point about the so-called transfer gap between lab R&D and commercial inancing. Your suggestion on using demand pull—with government creating demand for technologies before the market does so—is very useful. Unfortunately, it would be diicult to persuade those on the demand side to make such commitments without knowing that the technology ofers a good solution to the problem at hand—and if it does, private inanciers would probably be more than willing to back the technology anyway. The solution here could well be on the supply side: how far can the researchers push the technology with incremental innovation to make it visibly useful to the inanciers? Aditya Watal New York, NY Your editorial reads as if the baseline for “normal” investment in emerging technologies was set four years ago—with everything dropping from that point. Just as irms like Moody’s look across an entire credit cycle before rendering an opinion, it would be helpful to put the funding trends you observed over the past three or four years into a broader context. Otherwise, the data is measured against a highwater mark set by the proverbial 100-year lood. It has nowhere to go but down. Bryan McAllister Allentown, PA Pontin asks whether the “purchase commitments” with which the U.S. government has supported defense-related technology might work for other technologies as well. The answer is yes: the only things that stand in the way are igT E CH N O L O G Y R E V I E W

norance and the lack of a national policy that encompasses an economic vision beyond sustaining a consumer-oriented marketplace. Starting around 1960, I spent 40 years in R&D at various federal agencies, including NASA and the Department of Defense. Ever since the early 1980s, it has been impossible to get a government agency to step up to the responsibility of reconciling the supply-demand curve. Even when it is recognized that the cost of introducing a product into the market is prohibitively expensive for private industry, the government has failed to respond. Meanwhile, private inanciers show no desire to look beyond the next three to ive years—they are eating the seed corn. William D. Montjoye San Antonio, TX

Your article about the AK-47 relects upon the Russian approach to technology—or rather the durability of it—in war. It is interesting to note that during World War II, the Russian engineers made sure their weapons and tank and truck leets were standardized in less than half a dozen models or specs, unlike the Germans, who produced hundreds of unique vehicle, artillery, and weaponry designs, which resulted in a logistics and maintenance nightmare. The Russians produced a number of key items that were better than those of the Germans—superior tanks, sniper riles, and optical sights, for example. Marcus Gibson London, England

As an entrepreneur, it is my experience that venture capitalists are looking for a sure thing. This raises two questions. Why would someone with a “sure thing” want funding? And because low-risk investments translate into low returns, how were these venture capitalists going to deliver the high returns that they had promised their clients? Arun Muralidhar Chairman, Mcube Investment Technologies Plano, TX

Your summary of eforts to reduce the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on climate (“Engineering Climate,” March 2005) left out what is still the most important “green” energy source: nuclear power. There is no economical and environmentally acceptable way to store wind or solar energy; the widespread applicability of biofuels is far from proven and may require unacceptable commitments of agricultural land; “clean” coal technology that emits no greenhouse gases is somewhere between a wish and a hope. In contrast, nuclear power is a proven means of large-scale electricity generation that eliminates hundreds of millions of tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually. Yet its future development is being stymied by political opponents who proclaim their horror at the threat of global warming. Solving the climate change problem without nuclear energy will be like running a marathon with lead weights attached to one’s feet. David C. Williams Albuquerque, NM

HAI L R USSIAN E NG I N E E R I NG

Ed Tenner’s column about the AK-47 and Russian engineering (“Kalashnikov’s Gun,” March 2005) jolted my memory of combat in World War II. During the 1944 Warsaw Uprising, we had an assortment of submachine guns, including the homemade Blyskawica (Lightning), the German Schmeisser, the British Sten gun, and the Russian Pepesza. The German and British weapons had a very ine inish, while the Russian Pepesza had rough, uninished external welding. When subjected to dirt and mud during combat, though, the Sten guns and Schmeissers jammed. The Pepesza withstood rough handling without failure. Janusz Sciegienny Newton, MA

SAV I N G T H E W O R L D W I T H N U K E S

H O W TO C O N TAC T U S

E-mail [email protected] Write Technology Review, One Main Street, 7th Floor, Cambridge MA 02142 Fax 617-475-8043 Please include your address, telephone number, and e-mail address. Letters may be edited for both clarity and length.

may 2005

LETTERS

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15

readme Each readme is an executive summary of a fatter story in the magazine, stripped to its logical bones. Each concludes with a call to action.

I N N OVAT I O N

Vanquish the Cell-Phone Virus Nine of the 10 technologies that we describe in this month’s cover story (see “10 Emerging Technologies,” p. 43) will make 43 people’s lives better in some interesting way. The 10th? Not so much. One of the wonders of the modern world, of course, is that nearly every person and apparently every electronic gadget can be connected. Wireless devices are taken for granted. Unfortunately, it turns out that these smart, connected gadgets can easily wreak electronic havoc. Virus programs, which have become an annoying fact of life for computer users, are now infecting cell phones, too (see “Cell-Phone Viruses,” p. 50). The impact will at irst be minimal—your phone’s address book might get scrambled, or you might ind yourself billed for a series of phone calls you 16

didn’t make. But the potential for more-grievous harm is real, and it is very scary. Americans used more than one trillion wireless-phone minutes in 2004, an increase of one-third over the previous year, according to CTIA, a wireless-industry trade organization. And as many have noted, cell phones will become our all-purpose tools for interacting with the digital world, regardless of our location. Increases in both wireless use and wireless capability multiply by many times the peril of a virus-infected cell phone. A corporate network fortiied against wired assault may fall prey to a virus that hops from an employee’s cell phone or PDA as it syncs to a desktop machine. An even greater threat is wireless malware that spreads via the Bluetooth protocol, worming its way into, say, a car computer. In that instance, the damage could be a corrupted GPS navigation system or something far worse. This threat irst materialized just last year, when a malicious cell-phone program, a worm called Cabir, was released in June as a sort of proof-of-concept exercise by a group of hackers called 29A. Since then, Cabir has morphed into at least 15 varieties, which have struck cell phones in 14 countries. Computers fall prey to viruses in part because there is a single dominant software platform for them to attack. The irst wave to hit cell phones targets the Symbian operating system. Fortunately, cell phones are not so homogenous as PCs; a bug that strikes Symbian phones still leaves many millions of others unscathed. But that’s no cause for complacency. Symbian’s market share is growing; in the fourth quarter of 2004, 53 percent of mobile devices sold worldwide ran on its operating system. T E CH N O L O G Y R E V I E W

README

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may 2005

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