Technology Review (July 2005)

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DO YO U LOO K FAT I N YO U R G E N E S ? p52 Go Bla H t I ck ow t R Be ig rry ht p

36

MIT’s Magazine of Innovation

Intel’s Breakthrough Its new silicon laser could add decades to Moore’s Law— and save the digital economy. By Robert Service p62

The U.S. Government’s Plan to Store Everything Forever

Intel’s experimental optoelectronic chip

By David Talbot p44

Why Placebos Really Work

07

By Stephan Herrera p79

The Economics behind Digital Media By Stacy Lawrence p31

0

09281 01308

JULY 2005 USA $4.99 • CANADA $6.99 www.technologyreview.com

2

Contents 6

People and Organizations Index A guide to what’s in this issue

12 From the Editor How a blog is like a scrapbook 14 Letters Your thoughts on emerging technologies, energy policy, Michael Crichton, more

R EADM E

Read before operating this magazine 16 Memo to Washington Save the data. 18 Push(y) E-Mail Beware incoming distractions.

Volume 108, Number 7

Intel’s Breakthrough Its silicon laser could mean a solution to one of the great challenges facing the semiconductor industry: how to move data fast enough to keep up with Moore’s Law and tomorrow’s ultrafast computers. Silicon optics could provide a way to access this vast computational power. 62

18 End Fattism We must treat obesity as a real disease.

F O R WA R D

Emerging technologies in brief

D EALFLOW

BY I N V I TAT I O N

33 Funding of Innovative Startups Savi Networks, Axial Biotech, more By Andrew Madden

43 Nuclear Accountability Forensic technology may deter states from giving terrorists nukes. By Graham Allison

21 Your Ad Here The digerati debate shilling in blogs. FI NANCIAL I N DICES

23 Heart Check Taking blood pressure from the inside 24 Quantum Calculation D-Wave Systems sees a market. 25 Spectrum Scavenging Wireless goes rural.

The TR Large-Cap 100 and Small-Cap 50

F E AT U R E S

35 Investors Tire of Energy ...but think chips are fab. By Duff McDonald

44 The Fading Memory of the State The National Archives struggle to save endangered electronic records. By David Talbot

B R I E F CAS E

50 MIT’s DSpace Explained Electronic repositories stretch to meet scholars’ needs. By Simson Garfinkel

Business case studies 26 From Lewis and Clark to Landsat Digital maps marry past and present. 28 LimeWire’s Live Wire To Mark Gorton, file sharing is all good. And more...

A story best told with numbers

40 Carbon Dioxide for Sale Basin Electric Power Coöperative’s unlikely success story By Peter Fairley

31 Digital Media Make Their Mark A threshold is crossed. By Stacy Lawrence

42 One Decision Pura Vida brewed its own e-commerce. By Julie Bick

DATA M I N E

2

36 The Willing Partner Research in Motion and its decision to license BlackBerry software By Alex Frankel

CONTENTS

52 Wired to Eat Overweight Micronesians could help explain the genetics of obesity. By David Ewing Duncan 62

C OV E R S TO RY

Intel’s Breakthrough By Robert Service

Cover photograph by Plamen Petkov T E CH N O L O G Y R E V I E W

july 2005


   
  
 
     

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Contents DEMO

O B I T UA RY

Technology revealed

88 Darwin’s Disciple Ernst Mayr was the leading evolutionary biologist of the 20th century. By Andrew P. Madden

68 Art by Numbers John Maeda leads techno-artists who are pushing the boundaries between computer programming and design. By Gregory T. Huang

M E G AS C O P E

A look at the big picture

68 DEMO

Computer, design The work of techno-artist John Maeda.

75 Plain Technology The Amish have something to teach us. By Ed Tenner

R E V I E WS

Three ideas explored 76 The Myth of Jonas Salk It was Albert Sabin’s vaccine, not Salk’s, that truly defeated polio. By Angela Matysiak 79 Wishful Medicine The placebo effect is real, but what is it? By Stephan Herrera

75 M E G AS C O P E

82 On Display: the Unthinkable A museum tries to make sense of the bomb. By Mark Williams

The Amish and technology Their ways have something to teach us all. FROM TH E LAB

New publications, experiments, and breakthroughs—and what they mean 83 Information Technology 85 Biotechnology 86 Nanotechnology

What’s new at technologyreview.com Technology Review is experimenting with participatory journalism at a new satellite blog on the theme of “continuous computing” (www.continuousblog.net). Authored by senior editor Wade Roush, the blog is both a preview of and a companion to an upcoming feature article in Technology Review on the social impact of mobile computing, ubiquitous wireless broadband access, and new Web-based tools for publishing and collaboration. The blog offers news items, links, and commentary related to these trends. Most importantly, Roush has published an early draft of the article at the blog and is asking visitors to leave comments, suggestions, insertions, and corrections. Comments are folded back into the online draft and are helping Roush to shape the final article. TechnologyReview.com will also host a regular blog for Roush (wade.trblogs. com), giving him the opportunity to discuss future articles, interesting happenings, and whatever else catches his eye.

About Technology Review Technology Review, the oldest technology magazine in the world, 85 F R O M T H E L A B : B I OT E C H N O L O GY

Imaging brain plaques New methods from two research groups could help the study of Alzheimer’s disease.

4

CONTENTS

is published by Technology Review, Inc., an independent media company owned by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Founded in 1899, Technology Review describes emerging technologies and analyzes their commercial, economic, social, and political impact for an audience of senior executives, researchers, financiers, and policymakers, as well as for the MIT alumni. In addition, Technology Review, Inc. produces technologyreview.com, a website that offers daily news and opinion on emerging technologies. It also produces live events such as the Emerging Technologies Conference. The views expressed in Technology Review are not necessarily those of MIT. T E CH N O L O G Y R E V I E W

july 2005

WHEN YOU CAN HOLD SEATS FOR LATE-ARRIVING CUSTOMERS WHO ARE WILLING TO PAY HIGHER FARES. Operations Research holds the answer to this question and thousands of others that can be critical to the success of every kind of organization – large and small, private and public, for-profit and not-for-profit. That’s why leading executives worldwide are using Operations Research to unlock the value in their data, model complex systems, and make better decisions with less risk. To find out how Operations Research can give you a practical alternative to seat-of-the-pants decision-making, visit TechnologyReview.com/scienceofbetter.

OPERATIONS RESEARCH: THE SCIENCE OF BETTER Sponsored by INFORMS, the Professional Organization for Operations Research.

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