Water, Peace and the Middle East: Negotiating Resources in the Jordan Basin 9780755612031, 9781860640551

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J A (Tony) Allan: School of Oriental and African Studies, Thornhaugh Street, Russell Square, London WClH OXG

Is a professor of geography at SOAS in the University of London. His research interests include the monitoring and evaluation of renewable natural resources and especially water, in the arid environments of the Middle East and Africa. He is particularly interested in the economic, political, institutional, international relations and legal aspects of water in the Middle Eastern catchments. He has also researched and published on water in the Peace Talks. He is the author of many articles and books on environmental issues especially on the Middle East and North Africa, Libya: the experience of oil (Croom Helm, 1981), Libya since independence (Croom Helm, 1982), The Nile: managing a scarce resource (with P.P. Howell, Cambridge University Press, 1994), Water in the Middle East (with Chibli Mallat, British Academic Press, 1995). He also researches and publishes on the monitoring of renewable natural resources by Earth observation techniques and the application of geographical information systems in managing land and water resources.

Bashar Al-Kloub: School of Engineering, Staffordshire University, P.O. Box 333, Beaconside, Stafford ST18 ODF Is working on PhD research. His current focus is the application of multicriteria decision aid for strategic water planning in Jordan. He gained his BSc and MSc degrees from Jordan University, and subsequently worked at t h e Ministry of Planning in Jordan as head of the water and irrigation section between 1985 and 1993. He has published many papers about water problems in Jordan. His research interests include water problems in the Middle East, operations research, strategic water planning and performance evaluation.

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WATER. PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Dr T Al-Shemmeri: School of Engineering, Staffordshire University, P.O. Box 333, Beaconside, Stafford ST18 ODF Is a senior lecturer in environmental engineering. His research focus is concerned with computational hydrodynamics, environmentally friendly refrigeration and energy management. He supervises research in these areas and holds a grant from the European Union to investigate the application of multi-criteria decision methods to rank water development projects in Jordan. He has published over sixty papers in learned journals and conference proceedings and acts as consultant to the British Council.

Saul Arlosoroff: Senior Advisor, The Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel

Was educated in engineering at the Technion, Haifa, and in business administration at the University of Tel Aviv. He worked for Mekorot, the National Water Corporation of Israel, between 1956 and 1967 where he became Chief Water Engineer. He was Deputy Water Commissioner, Government of Israel, (1970-77) responsible for a number of programmes including demand management and the prevention of pollution. He worked for the World Bank (1981-93) managing programmes and projects for water supply and sanitation and he has advised overseas governments and institutions on water issues in the United States and Singapore as well as in countries in Africa. Currently he works with a group of consultants on water related problems.

Toby Dodge: Middle East Centre, School of Oriental and African Studies, Thornhaugh Street, Russell Square, London WClH OXG

Was educated in International Relations at Staffordshire University and in Politics at SOAS. He is currently completing his thesis in the School on the Foundations of the State in Iraq and Jordan. His research interests include state-society relations and the international relations of the Gulf states. He is the author of An Arabian Prince, English gentlemen and the tribes east of the River Jordan. Abdullah and the creation and consolidation of the Transjordanian State, (CNMES, SOAS).

...

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CONTRIBUTORS

Marwan Haddad: An Najah National University, P.O. Box 7, Nablus, West Bank, via Israel

Professor Manvan Haddad is director of the Water and Environmental Studies Center (WESC) at An Najah National University in Nablus. Prior to his appointment to the WESC he was the head of the Civil Engineering Department at the Faculty of Engineering (1986-1992). He gained his graduate and research training in the field of sanitary and environmental engineering in the United States. In the last ten years he has devoted much of his time to the problems of evaluating and managing the water resources of the Middle East and particularly in the Palestinian Territories. He has published over fifty papers and edited six books and proceedings. Since the Madrid Middle East Peace Conference, he has headed the Palestinian Water Technical committee and is very active in the Multilateral Water Working Group and in other meetings on water between Palestinian and Israeli scientists. He is also a member of the group convened by UNDP in East Jerusalem which is developing the Water Resources Action Plan for the Palestinian Territories.

Dr Munther Haddadin: Partner and Departmental Head, Water, Energy and Environment, Consolidated Consultants, P.O. Box 927195, Amman, Jordan

Born in Maien, Jordan, Dr Haddadin graduated with a Bachelor of Civil Engineering from Alexandria, Egypt in 1963. He obtained a Master of Science degree in Civil Engineering at the University of Washington in Seattle, Washington, and was awarded a PhD in 1969. He worked in engineering research in Skokie, Illinois for two years before he was called to serve in Jordan in March 1971. He was one of the founding directors of the Royal Scientific Society where he worked for two years as Director of Operations Research and Civil Engineering. Dr Haddadin participated in the preparation of the successive development plans for Jordan since 1972. He was transferred to work as Deputy Director General of the Jordan Valley Commission when it was established in 1973, and became Senior Vice President of the Jordan Valley Authority when it was established in 1977. Dr Haddadin later became Chairman of the Board and President of the Jordan Valley Authority from 1982 until he resigned from government service in 1987. The integrated social and economic development of the Jordan Valley engaged Dr Haddadin in the development of water resources of the country for 15 years. He also

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

gained professional experience in institution building, legislation and human resources development. Dr Haddadin started his own consulting firm in 1988 and has been operating in the Middle East and North Africa for such institutions as the World Bank, the F A 0 and the United Nations. He was called upon to serve on the Jordan delegations of the Middle East Peace Process. As a member of the delegation to the bilateral peace negotiations (1991-1994), Dr Haddadin headed a working group that handled the negotiations on water energy and the environment. In the Multilateral Peace Talks (1992-present), Dr Haddadin heads the Jordan delegation to the Steering Group. In the Trilaterals (Jordan, Israel and the U.S.), Dr Haddadin is a member of the Trilateral Economic Committee, and, until March 1995, headed the Jordan side of the Steering Committee for the Development of the Jordan Rift Valley. Dr Haddadin has several publications in international journals, and has made important contributions to international seminars on many aspects of water resources development and use. He was awarded several academic awards and medals.

Massoud Karshenas: School of Oriental and African Studies, Department of Politics, Thornhaugh Street, Russell Square, London WClH OXG Is senior lecturer at the Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London. His research interests include environment and economic development, economics of technological change, oil and industrialization, and the economic development of the Middle East. He is the author of several articles and books, including Oil, state and industrialization in Iran (Cambridge University Press, 1990) and Industrialization and agricultural surplus: a comparative study of economic development in Asia (Oxford University Press, 1994).

Numan Mizyed: An Najah National University, P.O. Box 7, Nablus, West Bank, via Israel

Dr Numan Mizyed is head of the Plant Production Department in the Faculty of Agriculture at An Najah University. He specialises in evaluating and managing water problems especially in agriculture and has researched many aspects of the water resources of the Palestinian Temtories.

CONTRIBUTORS

Yousef Nasser: Water Resources Action Programs (WRAP), UNDP, P.O. Box 51359, Jerusalem, via Israel

Studied for his BA and MA in economics in the United States and completed his PhD at the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex. He is a member of the Water Resources Action Programs team working on policy development and institution building. He is supervising studies on the economics of water and especially on issues such as the willingness to pay for water, environmental economics and the development of financial and economic instruments to accelerate effective demand management.

Hillel Shuval: Senior Advisor, The Hany S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel

Hillel Shuval was born in Washington DC and received undergraduate training in water resources engineering at Cornell University. After completing his graduate training in environmental engineering at the University of Michigan he was appointed, in 1965, Professor of Environmental Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he founded the Division of Environmental Sciences at the School of Applied Science and Technology. He has sewed as consultant on water and environmental engineering questions to the WHO, the World Bank, EEC and UNEP. He has also sewed as a consultant to governmental agencies, consulting engineers and industries in many countries, most recently to the People's Republic of China. In 1988 he was awarded the Environmental Quality Prize by the Minister of the Interior for his 'outstanding contributions in promoting the quality of the environment in Israel'. Since the Israel-Egypt Peace Agreement, Professor Shuval has initiated a number of co-operative research projects with Egyptian scientists. He is now involved in co-operative research projects with Palestiniail and Jordanian water scientists. He is active in plans for resolving the water conflicts of the Middle East. In 1992 he initiated and served as Co-Chairman of the First IsraeliPalestinian International Academic Conference on Water held in Zurich. In 1993-94 he served as Visiting Scholar at the Institute for Social and Economic Policy in the Middle East at Haward University, in the joint study with Jordanian, Palestinian and Israeli water scientists, working on an economic approach for co-operation on Middle East water problems. He has published some

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

200 scientific papers and seven books on various aspects of environmental sciences and engineering, waste water recycling and reuse, marine pollution, water quality, sanitation in developing countries, water resources management and the water resources problems of the Middle East. He has co-authoredledited an Israeli/Palestinian Water for Peace Plan and the book Water and Peace in the Middle East (with J. Isaac, Elsevier Press, 1994).

Tariq Tell: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 23 Tavistock Street, London WC2E 7NQ

Was educated in the UK at the universities of Oxford, LSE and IDS Sussex. He is currently researching at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London where his research focuses on the politics of institutions especially in the Middle East. He has recently co-edited the book Village, Steppe and State: the Social Origins of Modern Jordan (with Eugene Rogan).

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TABLES AND FIGURES

Haddad Figure 1 Table 1 Table 2 Figure 2 Figure 3

General location map Water resources in the Middle East Agriculture in the Middle East Population and food production index for Middle Eastern countries Elements in integrated co-operation over water

4 5 7 8 8

Arlosoroff Figure 1 Table 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Table 2 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10

Figure 1

Map of Jordan / Yarmouk groundwater Water use - actual and projected Water laws The agricultural sector - Israel: water use per dunurn The agricultural sector - Israel: water use efficiency The agricultural sector - Israel: allocation and use of water Total urban per capita consumption Be'er Sheva: water saving in a residential zone by flow regulator Findings of surveys on the savings obtained from installation of 'in-house' water saving devices Average industrial water consumption Industrial water consumption Waste-water availability and re-use

Estimates of water use and water availability and showing phases in water management in the Middle East 78

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Figure 2 Table 1 Figure 3 Figure 4

Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Table 2 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 Table 3 Table 4 Figure 13.1 Figure 13.2 Figure 14.1 Figure 14.2 Table 5 Table 6

Israeli and Palestinian water use compared with the total water needed for food self-sufficiency,l947-1993 Phases of supply management in the Middle East Israeli water consumption by sector, 1947-1993 Israeli water consumption, 1'"-1993 by sector showing the impact of the 1987 and 1992 droughts on sectoral water allocation Jordan's water consumption by sector, 1947-1995 Agricultural water consumption in Israel, 1947-1993 Trends in the adoption of new approaches to the allocation and management of water Schema of food regimes World water consumption trends World water consumption trends - semi-log Indexes of food production for Asia, China and India, 1961-1992 Indexes of food per capita for Asia, China and India, 1961-1992 Per capita cereal production by world regions: annual estimates and five year averages, 1951-1992 Simplified political economy of United States agricultural policy 1920s- 1990s Simplified political economy of the EU Common Agricultural Policy since inception Support payments (subsidies) to US grain producers, 1950-1988 Index of real market price, 1950-1988 US price support payments US government payments as a percentage of total farm income, 1934-1987 Percentage of producer revenue from support payments (domestic prices) Simplified political economy of Egypt

xiv

TABLES AND FIGURES

Allan and Karshenas Figure 1

Environmental capital (water) and economic development

Shuval Figure 1 Table 1

Figure 2 Figure 3 Table 2 Table 3

The Mountain Aquifer - a schematic presentation Tentative estimate of the total mean renewable fresh and brackish water potential of the Mountain Aquifer (Israel and the West Bank) and its current utilization Water stress in the Middle East- 1995 Water stress in the Middle East- 2025 Can available water resources meet the minimum water requirements of Middle Eastern countries? A proposed ranking of potential donors of water to the water short parties based on the degree of excess water resources in the year 2025, above the minimum water requirement of 125 m3/person/year

Al-Kloub and A1 -Shemmeri Figure 1 Table 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Table 2 Table 3

Jordan-Yarmouk river basin system The set of objectives, relevant measurement scales and relative importance of inputs to PROMETHEE Complete ranking and net outranking flow The walking weight facility The GAIA plane (a geometric representation of the problem) The spread sheet of PROMETHEE PROMETHEE V: Constraints and optimal solution

ORTHOGRAPHY The spelling of place names presents some difficulty, since the rendering of Arabic names is inconsistent in the literature. In Arabic the definitive article a1 is assimilated to certain consonants. There also have been inconsistencies arising from linguistic differences in Jewish names, JudeaIJudaea and Mekerotwekeroth for example. There are also different Jewish and Arabic names for the same areas. The West Bank aquifer, for example, is called the Mountain Aquifer or Yarkon-Tanninirn aquifer in Israel. OPT Jordan

The Occupied Palestinian Territories (The West Bank including East Jerusalem and the Gaza strip) The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

UNITS AND CONVERSIONS FACTORS Units of water mcm bcm PPm m3 m3/p/year mgp

million cubic metres billion cubic metres = 1,000,000,000m3 = 1 km3 parts per million cubic metre (1 cubic metre = 1000 litres) cubic metres/person/year milligrams per litre

Units of land 1 dunum lkm2

= 100 ha = 1,000,000 m2

Units of money NIS $

= 1000mz = 0.10 hectare = 0.247 acres

New Israeli Shekels (I&= 4.7 NIS) US dollars (l&= $1.60 dollars)

ABBREVIATIONS

ABARE CAP DOP EU FA0 FSU GAIA GATT GCC GNP IBRD ILA ILC JRJC JVA LCPD LRMC MCDA MWR O&M ODA OECD OPT OMVS PHG PNA

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics Common Agricultural Policy Declaration of Principles European Union (formerly European Community) Food and Agriculture Organisation Former Soviet Union Geometrical analysis for interactive aid General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade Gulf Co-operation Council Gross national product International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) International Law Association International Law Commission Jordan River Joint Commission (proposed) Jordan Valley Authority Litres cubed per day Long run marginal cost Multi-Criteria Decision Aid Minimum water requirements Operation and maintenance Overseas Development Administration Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Occupied Palestinian Temtories (The West Bank including East Jerusalem and the Gaza strip) Organization for the Management of the Senegal River Basin Palestine Hydrology Group Palestinian National Authority

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WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

PPA PROMETHEE PWA ROID SOAS TVA UFW UN UNEP UNRWA US AID USD A WCED WRAP WHO WTO

Proposed Palestinian Autonomy Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation Palestine Water Authority Regional Office for Integrated Development School of Oriental and African Studies Tennessee Valley Authority Unaccounted-for water United Nations United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Relief and Works Agency United States Agency for International Development United States Department of Agriculture The World Commission on Environment and Development Water Resources Action Programme World Health Organisation World Trade Organisation

xviii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This book has been made possible by inputs from a diverse group of scientists, professionals, interested bodies and agencies. The conference in 1995 on which the chapters are based is part of a series of scientific meetings on water resources and water resource allocation and management in the Middle East held at the School of Oriental and African Studies. The scientific contributions from Jordanian, Israeli and Palestinian specialists are particularly appreciated. This was by no means the first time that informal and formal meetings between such scientists and professionals had taken place but it is the first time in the United Kingdom.

The conference was supported by a number of financial donations and by contributions in kind. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office assisted the attendance of some of the overseas speakers. A number of organisations in Jerusalem made the meeting possible; the Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University and staff of the Palestinian Water Resources Action Programme and LPCRI (Israel-Palestine Center for Research and Information) were especially helpful in this regard. In London important material assistance came from The School of Oriental and African Studies and from the British Friends of The Hebrew University. And without the liaison and support of the staff of the British Geological Survey the meeting and the publication would not have been possible. Permission to reproduce the tabulated material in Figures 13 and 14 and Tables 2 to 5 in the chapter by J. A. Allan is gratefully acknowledged, with thanks to the author Richard Le Heron, in whose book, G l o b a l i z e d agriculture, the material originally appeared, and to the publisher. The book was published by Pergamon Press in 1993, a company now owned by Butterworth-Heinemann Ltd which granted permission to use the material. The co-operation of Professor Paul Cloke, the editor of the series, is also appreciated. The inclusion of Figure 12, also in the chapter by J. A. Allan, showing world levels in cereal production, is with the kind permission of Professor Tim Dyson of the London School of Economics.

Water resources in the Middle East: conflict and solutions

M. HADDADand N. MIZYED

Introduction In the Middle East, water resources are limited, population growth is high and food production is low. The countries which reflect these criteria are Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), Iraq and Israel (see Figure 1). The current accelerating increase in water demands and inefficient use and allocation of available water resources has led to many water shortage problems, and restrictions and constraints on the use and exploitation of water resources. Comprehensive and lasting peace in the Middle East is essential and highly important to all parties. Solving the political conflicts allows the parties to jointly apply administrative measures for water resources management in the Middle East in order to reduce water shortages. This is an important step toward solving the water problems in the region, supporting the agreements that will evolve from the Middle East peace talks and building a stable and secure future for the Middle East.

Water resources in the Middle East: a conflict Many studies, reports and estimates have suggested that fresh water deficits are rapidly increasing and that a critical level will be reached between 1995 and the year 2000 when conflicts could be unpreventable (Benvenisti and Khayat, 1988; Dillman, 1989; Elazar, 1982; Haddad, 1990; Musleh, 1981; Naff and Matson, 1984; Schrnida, 1984; Starr and Stoll, 1987). The total internal renewable water resources of the Middle East countries is about 247 km3 (see Table 1). If we exclude Turkey,

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Figure 1: General location map

---.

-.-.__

500 krn

u

WATER RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

5

however, this amount falls to 51 km3. Turkey should not be excluded as it controls the flow of two major rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates, which flow on to Syria and Iraq. The net annual river flow through Middle East countries is about 58.6 km3. However this net river flow does not represent the actual volumes of water used by the Middle Eastern countries.

Table 1 Water Resources in the Middle East

Country

River flows

Annual withdrawal

Renewable water resources

Water Use D

In Out km3/yr Egypt 56.5 0.0 Syria 27.9 30.0 Jordan 0.4 0.0 Lebanon 0.0 0.9 OPT* 0.2 0.0 Iraq 66.0 0.0 Israel 0.5 0.0 Total Turkey Total

Total km3

Ind

Agr

/c m3

Share Total % km3

/c m3

56.40 1202 3.34 449 0.45 173 0.75 271 0.22 124 42.80 4575 1.90 447

97 1.80 9 7.60 41 0.70 16 4.80 30 0.72 43 34.00 88 1.70

30 610 160 1620 400 1800 370

7 7 29 11 23 3 16

5 10 6 4 1 5 5

88 83 65 85 76 92 79

8 196.00 3520

24

19

57

151.5 30.9

105.86

7.0 69.0

15.60

158.5 99.9

121.46

%

51.32 317

247.32

-

* OPT = Occu~iedPalestinian Temtorv, (The West Bank including East Jerusalem and the Gaza ship) /C = Per C a ~ i t a ,Share = Dercent of annual withdrawal to internal renewable resources. lnL=Into the counhy from other counmes, Out = Out of the country km = kilometre, D =domestic, Ind = indusmal, Agr = agricultural ~

Sources: World Resources, 1990 and World Development Report, 1992.

In general in most of the Middle East, except Syria, Lebanon and Turkey, renewable water is less than water withdrawal (see Table 1). Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Israel are mostly utilizing water that originates from outside their boundaries. With the current high rates of population growth and the increase in per capita water consumption, water demands are increasing. Thus, upper riparian countries (upper Nile

6

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

countries, Syria, Lebanon and Turkey, for example) are gradually diverting more water from shared water resources such as river basins. Therefore, available water for downstream users is decreasing while their water demands are growing. As a result, the potential for conflict over water resources in the region increases with time. Assuming that the total annual per capita water withdrawal in the Middle East will be 600 m3 (which is about one third of that in the United States and one half that of European countries), the total water withdrawal for the present population of the region will be 93 km3. According to the present growth rates of the region's population, it is expected that the population will double in twenty years (see Figure 2) and consequently the total annual water withdrawal will be about 186 km3 (about 120 km3 without Turkey) assuming that the present total annual per capita water withdrawal will stay the same until the end of the projection period. In comparing the available total renewable water resources in each of the Middle East countries with their water demands, it is evident that the water demands of these countries with the exception of Turkey cannot be met without drastic measures including strict water conservation and a high degree of co-operative management. Because agriculture is the main water consumer in the Middle East (see Table 2), certain measures and strategies should be directed toward the agricultural sector in order to reduce water consumption. If policy favours an open market and the ending of subsidies to water, tracts with the least crop consumptive use and most efficient irrigation methods will gain a high share in the agricultural production of the region. The total amount of water consumed in the region could be reduced significantly. Transporting agricultural products from one area to another (for example from southern Lebanon to Israel, Turkey to Syria and Iraq) will be easier and more efficient than transporting water from areas (for example from Lebanon and Turkey to Israel and Jordan) where agricultural products could be grown with higher yields per unit volume of water. In addition to the problems related to water shortages in the region, every one of the major water resources in the Middle East is shared by two or more countries in the region. Every major river (the Jordan, Tigris and Euphrates) is shared by more than one country. Also, many ground water aquifers are shared by several countries. Thus, the water

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7

bodies in the region are classified as international water resources. When water shortages increase, the potential for conflict over such water resources will rise especially when there are no agreements regarding them. This is the case for most international water bodies in the Middle East.

Table 2 Agriculture in the Middle East

Country

Egypt Syria Jordan Turkey Lebanon OPT* Iraq Israel

Total

Population Area Cultivated 1990 Growth tare mil % km2 1000 ha 54.1 12.5 4.3 55.6 3.0 1.8 18.9 4.6 154.8

2.55 3.56 3.94 1.99 2.11 3.50 3.48 1.58

995 184 89 770 10 6 437 20

2560 5630 414 27927 301 200 5450 438

Irrigated %

Avg

3 30 4 36 29 33 12 21

100 12 11 8 29 11 32 64

Index of production

118 80 100 97 135 x 92 95

42720

* OPT : Occupied Palestinian Temtoxy (The West Bank including East Jerusalem and the Gaza Smp). Sources: World Resources, 1990 and World Development Report, 1992.

Population growth and water scarcity The population growth in the Middle East is relatively high and ranges from 1.58 per cent to 3.94 per cent per year (see Table 2). In addition to high natural growth rates, immigration into the region or migration within the region itself is another factor increasing the population. One solution to this rapid increase in population is that progressively larger areas be irrigated for food production. Such developments require additional water which does not exist. The management of such water shortages requires a regional management programme for the Middle East. A factor which is being increasingly emphasized as a basis for the

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Figure 2 Population and food production index for middle Eastern countries + Projected

300

-a

.C

LC

.-5'S ..-

a

200

0

a,

a

C

C

.0

C 0

0

f

@

n

5 100 a

120

a;

B

2

0 lL

\

100

0 1960

1980

2000

2020

Figure 3 Elements in integrated co-operation over water

Negotiation and International Arbitration

Comprehensive and Integrated Solutions

Water Charter

Optimization of Water Use

Economy of Water Use

WATER RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

9

regional management of water resources in the Middle East.is the economics of water. An analysis of the pattern of water use in Middle East countries, as listed in Table 1, shows that the main user of water is the agricultural sector. However, Figure 2 shows that the per capita index of agricultural production in these countries has declined slightly during the last two decades while the population is increasing at high rates (Nashashibi, 1989 and Naff and Matson, 1984). In addition to its main effect on the food security of the people of the region, the shortage of fresh water for agriculture will negatively affect the economy of these countries and consequently the socio-economic life of the people. As a result the nature of future agricultural production in the Middle East countries cannot be predicted.

Regional management of international water bodies As the water resources in the Middle East are classified as international water resources, it will be beneficial to look at the experience of other regions which share common water resources. Today, there are approximately 200 large river systems in the world which are each shared by two or more nations (Trolldalen, 1992). Basin-wide management is becoming more complex as the number of international conflicts over those systems increases. Thus, there is a world-wide trend towards the establishment of river basin organizations as the best vehicle for the harmonious and optimal exploitation of shared water resources (Godana, 1985). The theoretical possibilities of international water resource institutions range from simple schemes which function as mere consultation groups to permanent, quasi-sovereign organizations enjoying far-reaching autonomous authority (Godana, 1985). Simple institutions such as the Egyptian-Sudanese Permanent Joint Technical Committee and the Informal Technical Committee of all Nile Basin States proved to be effective forums for inter-governmental cooperation and co-ordination. However, such institutions lack executive powers. Thus, the first economic summit of the Organization of African States held in Lagos in 1980 called for a standing basin-wide institution. Sophisticated, super-national institutions with far reaching executive powers have proved to be effective in managing international river

10

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

systems for the interests of the communities within the system. An example of such an institution is the Organization for the Management of the Senegal River Basin (OMVS) in West Africa. The OMVS has the authority to create general obligations which are binding on member states, to promote and co-ordinate studies and works projects for the development of the river, to accept grants as well as technical assistance, and the capacity to sue and be sued in courts of member states (cited by Godana, 1985 from different sources). Less sophisticated institutions have been used in managing other river systems such as the Niger Basin Authority (nine states in West Africa) and the Organization for the Management and Development of the Kargera River Basin (Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda). These institutions provide evidence of a degree of co-operation in the field of international water resources. Conflicts over international river systems have also been solved through negotiated agreements between riparian states. Such agreements usually divide shared water resources among the riparian states. The World Bank was involved for 20 years in dividing the Indus River waters between India and Pakistan. In 1977, a five year agreement concerning the water of the Ganges River System was reached between India and Bangladesh (Trolldalen, 1992). In the Middle East there have been no agreements concerning shared water resources and at the same time no basin-wide institutions to manage shared water resources. Thus, negotiated agreements for solving water resources conflicts and regional institutions will be key factors in solving the water problems of the region.

Water resources in the Middle East: solutions Solutions to the water resources conflict in the Middle East are possible and feasible if the parties concerned sit together in good faith and negotiate an agreement. These negotiations should be based on sound strategies. The following are the most important measures that need to be adopted: that the parties involved recognize negotiation and arbitration as the means to solving regional water problems,

WATER RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

11

that the approach to the solution to water problems should be comprehensive and integrated, that all parties should be given their water rights equally according to one regional water charter, that water use in all countries in the region should be optimized according to a unified and approved water saving and conservation programme, that water pricing and cost recovery policies in the region should be discussed and harmonized as soon as possible. These innovative approaches are illustrated in Figure 3 and briefly outlined and discussed in the following paragraphs:

1 Negotiation and arbitration Most of the existing and the previous water resources controls as well as any advantages enjoyed by the countries of the region were gained using military force and not through negotiations or dialogue. The countries of the Middle East should clearly accept the principle of direct negotiations and/or indirect negotiations through a mediator or a third party as the means to solve conflict. A mechanism such as international arbitration should also be adopted if the negotiations reach a dead end or don't progress for a long period of time, as in the case of Turkey, Syria and Iraq.

2 Comprehensive and integrated solutions All aspects of the conflict should be looked at and all riparian parties should be included, worked with and/or share in all talks, discussions, negotiations and decisions on regional water resources projects and plans. The comprehensive-integrated approach should include and link the political, technical, socio-economic, environmental, infrastructural and other aspects of water resource management.

12

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Applying administrative measures in water resources management such as ending government subsidies on water, limiting recreational water use, privatization of the water sector and adopting open economic markets represent an important part of a comprehensive regional water resources management programme in the Middle East. With respect to the political aspects of water resources, the rights of each party as a riparian should be fully respected. Consequently, no party has the right to dominate, misuse, pollute or prevent the flow from a joint water resource using military superiority or prevailing conditions.

Vis-ci-vis the technical aspects of water resources the following should be considered: The availability of water resources for the whole region should be continuously assessed and the regional institutions needed for this purpose should be established. The components of the system should be d e f i e d : is the system a shared one or is it closed for one country? The total per capita water demand should be monitored in all sectors and uses. Alternatives to reduce per capita water demands and to increase the efficiency of water use at the regional level, such as conservation measures, desalination of brackish waters and waste water re-use, should be implemented and continuously researched and developed. The protection of joint water resources in the region should be accommodated through clear and referenced agreements which specify the water resource, the users and the uses. Regional waste water re-use, desalination of brackish waters and rain and run-off water harvesting strategies should be planned. Principles and practice with respect to environmental aspects of water resources, regional water quality management and pollution

WATER RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

13

control strategies, waste water treatment levels and re-use policies, and other environmental policies should be agreed.

3 Water charter There is a need for a water charter for the region. A clear definition of and answers to the following terms and questions should be stated and agreed upon: What is, and what are the requirements of, a transboundary, shared or international water resource? Water rights: What are the most appropriate approaches to the division of shared water bodies? When should we or shouldn't we use the riparian rights, the appropriation rights, the Helsinki rules, equal water utilization, equitable water utilization, United Nations accepted approaches or other principles? Duties and responsibilities: the duties and responsibilities of every party in the region regarding water resources pumping rates in time and space, conservation and pollution prevention. For this purpose, it is recommended and within the framework of the first approach (negotiations and arbitration), that a special team or committee from the parties concerned along with experts in the field from outside the region (who are well respected by all parties for their knowledge and impartiality) should be formed and given the duty of developing the charter. The end result of the committee's work should include in addition to regulations and laws, a clear implementation and decision making strategy for these laws. Also, the monitoring, follow up and evaluation of the water policies experienced in the region should also be included.

14

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

4 Optimization of irrigation techniques

Optimization of water use and the expansion of agriculture using such techniques should be given high importance. Optimization of water use implies the use of all available methods of water saving and conservation. This would include the reduction of water application through the use of modem irrigation techniques and through biotechnological methods to develop crops with high water use efficiencies, minimization of water losses in irrigation schemes and coordination between rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Improving irrigation techniques would lead to improved drainage systems and consequently water savings. However, precaution should be given to the associated environmental impacts, including changes in water quality (increases in salinity or nitrate levels, for example). The change from non-irrigated to irrigated agriculture and from using traditional irrigation methods to modem ones should be carefully planned and executed. The increase of rainfed agriculture and the specialization in specific irrigated agriculture items seems more feasible. The concept of self sufficiency in food supply and production should not be at the expense of increased water shortages.

5 Economy of water use The economic aspect of water use in the Middle East countries has been the last idea to be considered by the govemments of these countries. The govemments have not been able to recognize the difference between the availability of water resources and the economics of exploiting and using them. The main user of water in the Middle East is the agricultural sector. However, water prices in the Middle East either for domestic or agricultural sectors vary widely from one country to another. These prices are mostly below actual cost because of government subsidies. Subsidies to water in the Middle East also differ from one place to another in the same country; for example the prices of water allocated for agriculture in Jordan differ between the Jordan Valley and southem Jordan and the highlands in the central part of Jordan. Historical Palestine is another example, where water prices paid by farmers in the

WATER RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

15

Naqab desert differ from those in the northern parts and from those paid by the Jewish settlers in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. In many areas in the Middle East, there are crops produced at costs much higher than their prices on the international markets. At the same time, they are produced using scarce water resources due to government subsidies to farmers. Because the water resources in the region are limited and a water crisis is already affecting some Middle Eastern countries, strict water management and allocation policies should be adopted including: Increasing water prices to include the costs of water delivery, costs of pollution protection, operation and maintenance costs, waste water collection, treatment and re-use costs, and developmental costs of expanding the system, installing new sections to the system or introducing new technology. Reducing the total amount of water used by the agricultural sector through maximizing of agricultural yield per unit of water applied.

A successful water supply system should be efficient and profitable. Being efficient means that the quantity of water conveyed to the system and distributed to consumers is sufficient at all times, with minimum losses. Profitable means that the system takes less time and cost to convey the water and distribute it to consumers. Such a formula is not yet operated in the Middle East. In this context, a comprehensive public education programme is needed. It should be aimed at raising public awareness of the approaches and practices needed to encourage people to cooperage and support government policies concerning water demand management and resource re-allocation.

Conclusions The conflict over water resources in the Middle East has been discussed and two steps to achieving a long lasting solution have been identified. The first step in any attempt to solve the conflict depends on the

16

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

realization that negotiation in good will is an essential element. The second step in resolving water resources conflicts is the achievement of widespread recognition that any agreements must be comprehensive and integrated. To achieve these comprehensive and integrated solutions three supportive mechanisms were recognized and should be applied: the adoption of a water charter for the region, the optimization of water use in agriculture and the introduction of economic principles into the allocation and management of water.

References and Further Reading Benvenisti, M. and Khayat, S., 1988, The West Bank and Gaza atlas, WBDP, Jerusalem, 20-25. Dillrnan, J., 1989, 'Water rights in the Occupied Territories', Journal of Palestine Studies, 46-48. Elazar, D.J., 1982, Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip; Views on the Present and Future, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington DC. Godana, B.A., 1985, Africa's shared water resources: legal and institutional aspects of the Nile, Niger and Senegal river systems, London: Frances Pinter and Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Reiner Publishers Inc. Haddad, M., 1990, The Environment in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, a preliminary report sponsored by the Centre for Engineering and Planning, Ramallah, prepared for the conference on 'The management of the environment in the Mediterranean', Nicosia, April 1990. Musleh, R., 1981, 'Israel and the water resources of the West Bank', Palestinian Affairs, No. 118, September 1981. Naff, T. and Matson, R., 1984, Waters in the Middle East: conflict or co-operation, published in co-operation with the Middle East Research Institute, University of Pennsylvania; Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press. Nashashibi, M., 1989, Water resources in Palestine and the Israeli covets in it, conference on Arab water resources and their strategic importance, Jordan University - Water Research Centre and Centre

WATER RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

17

for Strategic Studies, Amman, April 1989, 207-219. Schmida, L., 1984, 'Israel's Drive for Water', The Link, Vol 17, No. 4, November 1984, 1-3. Starr, J.R. and Stoll, D.C., 1987, US foreign policy on water resources in the Middle East, C515, Washington DC. Trolldalen, J.M., 1992, International environmental conflict resolution: the role of the United Nations, Oslo and Washington DC: WFED; Geneva and New York: UNITAR; Washington DC: NIDR. World Resources 1990-91, 1990, A guide to the global environment, a report published by the World Resources Institute in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Program and the United Nations Development Program, Oxford University Press. World Development Report, 1992, Development and the Environment, Published for the World Bank, Oxford University Press.

Managing scarce water - recent Israeli experience* S. ARLOSOROFF

This chapter will focus on demand management (also termed water conservation, water saving strategies or the programme for increased efficiency of water use). The policy of Israel to meet the growing demand for water focuses on supply and demand activities and investment. The long range solution lies with sea-water desalination. All other activities are aimed at delaying the high investments and the associated costs involved with this expensive process. 1. Re-use of sewage efluents Recent regulations have increased the quality of sewage treatment in order to maximize its re-use and minimize the health and environmental risks as well as enhance the trading instruments for the exchange of fresh water allocations, with treated effluents mainly for irrigation. 2. Water conservation 1 improved efSiciency of water use Policies and achievements concentrate on mixed instruments including: (a) allocations, norms and progressive block rates for each sector, and (b) research, development and the implementation of agronomic techniques as well as technological means to improve water use efficiency and reduce water consumption in the home, office, industry and parks. 3. Sectoral water allocations Recently major changes in the approach toward the allocation system have been initiated, including elimination of urban allocations; imposing sanctions if unaccounted water use rises above approved levels; and the possible introduction of 'water market' trading with allocations on an economic basis.

* This study is based on research completed by the author within his function as a senior advisor to the Hany S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. The paper represents the personal views of the writer. The Institute and the writer reserve the right to use this material, complete or in part, elsewhere.

22

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Introduction The Middle East and North Africa face an environmental crisis, much of it as a result of water scarcity and the existing and potential pollution of their resources. It is estimated that the investment needed to deal with and solve the problem could reach US$70-80,000 million in the period 19952005. The hydro-geological conditions are in constant deterioration. As extraction from ground and surface water resources increases, so do the problems associated with low water levels and decreased quality. Inadequate human and industrial waste discharge restrictions as well as inappropriate waste water re-use programmes lead to higher concentrations of chemicals and organic contaminants. The concentrations of heavy metals and toxic compounds have already reached alarming levels in various sites and the projected future cleaning costs could reach prohibitive rates unless urgent and strict measures are introduced. The expected population growth in the region is likely to exacerbate the problems. World Bank forecasts indicate growth of 40 per cent (from 250 millions in 1990) to 350 millions by the end of the century. Governments will be unable to generate the financial and human resources needed to provide adequate water and sanitation facilities to meet the future demand. Almost 20 per cent of the total population in the region lack an adequate potable water supply and almost 35 per cent lack appropriate sanitation. Less than 20 per cent of the urban water supplied in 1990 has been properly treated; in the industrial world this figure is above 70 per cent. Most of the countries in the Middle East face serious water pollution problems already, while water scarcity is reaching acute levels. During the last generation the average water availability per capita has dropped from 3500 m3 and will fall to 1500 m3 per capita by the year 2020. The countries which already exploit more than 100 per cent of their natural water replenishment levels include Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan (HKJ), Israel, the Proposed Palestinian Autonomy (PPA), Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Bahrain, Kuwait and the Emirates. It is estimated that by the year 2005, or by the latest 2010, only five of these countries will have sufficient water to satisfy the growing demand.

MANAGING SCARCE WATER: RECENT ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

23

Figure 1: Surface waters of the JordanIYarmouk catchments showing existing and previously planned diversions

----

-

a

Planned Storage d a m Ex~st~ng Planned Exsting

'

Ephemeral Major C t y . Town

[ZI

-- -

Occuped Paestne ( s l n c e 1U67) N a t l o n a Boundary

Mediterranean Sea

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

S o u r c e Author

24

WATER. PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

The World Bank, in its recent report on the environmental problems of the Middle East and North Africa, strongly recommends that governments take the following actions soon: 'To implement comprehensive water demand management policies - including raising water prices (to cover complete cost recovery and even marginal costs of producing additional units of water) in order to enhance conservation in all sectors, eliminating subsidies on fertilisers and pesticides in order to slow-down the potential pollution of resources, adequate recycling and re-use of solid and liquid wastes, and the promotion of an 'enabling environment' for the introduction of the private sector into the water industry and utilities' (World Bank, 1994).

Israel and its neighbours: some background The present population of Israel is approximately 5.5 million and is increasing at an approximate rate of 2.5 per cent per year (excluding potential increases in immigration and its effect on the growth rate). The population is estimated to reach 6.3-7.0 million by the end of the decade. Best estimates for the year 2020 indicate a potential population of 10-13 million Israeli citizens. (The variation is mainly due to unpredictable future immigration levels.) Present average urban water consumption (domestic, commercial and industrial) is approximately 110 m3 per capita per year, taking into account past efforts which have resulted in approximately 30 per cent savings. Present industrial forecasts coupled with projections for urban water consumption per capita converge at an estimate of 110-120 m3 per capita per year by 2020. These figures assume a much higher standard of living coupled with the very rigid and wide-scale implementation of demand management policies. When multiplied by the projected population, the level of water demand will amount to approximately 1000-1300 mcm of fresh water per year. Inelastic agricultural demand for water to supply basic fresh food (dairy products, eggs and vegetables for example) is estimated at 25-30 m3 per capita; this adds an additional 220-330 mcm. Inelastic consumption of fresh water resources will amount therefore to approximately 1200-1650 mcm per year in 2020. In addition, exchange

MANAGING SCARCE WATER: RECENT ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

25

for effluents will be uneconomic in some regions thus giving a total demand of 1400-1900 m c d y . Re-use of treated effluent in Israel will reach 70-75 per cent of the total DCI (domestic, commercial, industrial) use which amounts to almost 100 per cent of the total sewered flows (the entire population will be sewered by 2020). The estimated treated effluent flow by 2020 will be approximately 700-1000 mcm. The amount of water use and projections for the four relevant entities are shown in Table 1. In order to sustain the country's economic demand for water (fresh plus effluents) policy must be based on major investments, aggressive public education, government incentives and penalties, implementation of a 'water market' as well as appropriate changes in water rates and additional institutional arrangements. It calls for an elaborate social and political campaign and requires assuming the possible risk of litigation in order to achieve a high level of fresh to waste water exchange and re-use in agriculture. At present it may look like a very 'tall tree to climb'. Costs per cubic metre, to treat and transfer and the investments to facilitate exchange of fresh water sources for secondary or tertiary treated effluent, could rise to close to desalination costs. Environmental benefits will have to be taken into account in general taxation. In any event Israel may be forced to desalinate sea-water before the year 2020 unless large-scale regional transfers are achieved. In the Southern Negev, desalination of brackish water (and soon sea-water) has already been integrated into the system as it is cheaper than piping water from the North; irrigation systems there use only brackish water and effluent. In the Central Negev, desalination of the existing brackish aquifer may be a major source of water, possibly as soon as 2000-2010. All these programmes cannot be implemented unless large-scale investments are made, including the use of international funding and private-sector involvement. Israel's sustainable fresh water potential is approximately 1600-1700 mcmlyear (excluding the PPA). Thus Israel will devote all of its fresh water resources to meet inelastic demand, while all or most of the treated effluents will be used in agriculture and industry. Israel's main water sources are the Sea of Galilee and the coastal and mountain aquifers, therefore Israel could not hope to satisfy the needs of the PPA. Although the Palestinians are presently consuming water at relatively low rates, with 4-6 million people projected within the PPA by the year 2020, and inflexible consumption demand at 60-80 m3 per capitalyear, additional

-

Table 1 Water use actual and projected Water Use - Actual (1989/1991)

-

-

-

-- -

Water Use - Projected (2040)

ND - No data available

Source: The World Bank, Water supply in the Middle East, 1994.

MANAGING SCARCE WATER: RECENT ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

27

resources will have to be developed and distributed. Apart from comprehensive demand management programmes, regional water transfers and sea-water desalination are the only feasible solutions and must be integrated into the water systems of the region in the coming decades. The timing of the integration of the expensive new water resources will depend upon the effective implementation of a demand management strategy, to include the total re-use of effluents by the three entities concerned (Jordan, the PPA and Israel).

Supply and demand - general background There are a number of major policy options which could significantly change supply and demand pressures in the region. Reduction of government water subsidies affects water prices, demand and public funding for water projects. Changes in water re-allocation policy could lead to a new equilibrium. As the quantity of sewage effluent increases with urban industrial growth, and as urban and industrial growth will consume most incremental water supplies, government initiatives supporting re-use projects and exchanging fresh resources for effluents are essential components in the large-scale implementation of supply and demand policies. Changes in global and regional commodity markets could also bring about substantial changes in agricultural water demand. Governments may continue some support for agricultural use of water for internal social and political reasons despite the damaging economic implications. As demand for water by party 'A' has a direct link to the supply of water to 'B' or 'C', similar policies should be followed by all. Assessments of supply and demand must integrate data from all consumer groups and suppliers and be available to all parties as part of an effective joint-management regime. The figures from Israel, Jordan and the PPA illustrate substantial differences in the efficiency of water use in the two production subsectors (agriculture and industry) as well as in the levels of unaccountedfor water and the application of techniques to reduce domestic water use. In the irrigation sector in Israel, cotton for example (and other row field crops), grown with automated drip irrigation systems show a more than 50 per cent increase in product value per unit of water in comparison with sprinkler irrigation. Increases in citrus and other horticulture crops could

28

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

reach similar levels, as could vegetables. Israel's large-scale demand management policy in the 1970s led to a significant increase in the product value per unit of water or land. Industrial production per unit of water has also increased substantially in Israel; during a decade of efforts in the 1970s it rose by over 80 per cent (in real terms). Israel has used a host of tools - including water rate adjustments, government incentives and penalties, investment credits to increase water use efficiency, enhanced research and development, soil conservation and extension services, and local manufacture of high-quality technological systems - which have all promoted a decreased demand for water and enabled the authorities to reduce water allocations without diminishing the net income of the production sectors. See Figure 2 for the basic parameters of Israel's strategy. Replication of this strategy within the PPA or in other Middle Eastern countries could alleviate existing problems and promote much more effective water use. The World Bank for example could act as a catalyst for the implementation of research, policy-making and institutional change in order to gain similar results, as in Israel and Singapore where the bank was active in the past. One way to deal with the complicated question of supply and demand levels is to assess inelastic water demand and then to project additional agricultural demand based on improved irrigation efficiency and the socio-economic conditions of rural populations. In evaluating inelastic water demand, issues including the standard of living, level of industrialization, economic utilization, wide-scale implementation of water-conservation technologies and the impact of water rates, should all be taken into account. These factors clearly demonstrate the complexity of applying economic instruments to forecast water demand in each sector and in each country of the Middle East. However, the 'water market' option could undoubtedly facilitate feasible solutions. Demand projections in this case may avoid entanglement with complex political considerations and would ensure consumers deal with water in a much more rational way. It is assumed that authorities will tend to defend their demand projections based on 'equitable sharing' or 'appreciable harm' as forcefully as they can. Turkey versus Syria, Syria versus Jordan and Israel, Lebanon vis ri vis the Litani diversion plans, Israel vis ri vis its present use of the Jordan and the mountain aquifers and the PPA's use of the mountain aquifer are all areas of protracted controversy. [Another source of conflict

MANAGING SCARCE WATER: RECENT ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

WATER LAWS

IBASIC PREMISES I * * * * *

*

STATE OWNERSHIP AND CONTROL RIGHT TO USE WATER TO EVERY PERSON: APPROVED USE AND LICENSING ALLOCATION (BY NORMS) WATER METERING QUALITY CONTROL: PREVENTION OF CONTAMINATION REGULATED WATER RATES

I THE LAWS * * * * *

I

WATER METERING (1955) WATER DRILLING (1955) DRAINAGE & FLOOD CONTROL (1957) WATER LAW (195 1) AMENDMENT POLLUTION PREVENTION (1971)

29

30

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

likely to arise as the peace process advances is the as-yet undefined scope of 'return' migration (Palestinians and Jews) and its implications for population growth and additional demand for water.] These and other issues are likely to be addressed within the bilateral and multilateral discussions; they are all relevant to projections of future water demand and supply. All the participants could play a major role in various studies which will follow the agreements between the concerned governments. Their potential role and leverage when funding additional resources, especially regional transfers, may become indispensable.

Demand management in agriculture and urban sectors This endeavour includes continued efforts, both technological as well as economic, to further reduce water use in urban centres and industry as well as to further improve the efficiency of water use in agriculture. Incremental costs of water saved in Israel range from US$0.05- 0.40lm3. The best current research has deduced a skewed distribution curve for the cost of water in relation to volume and quantity with an average cost of approximately 25-30 cents/m3. The figures for irrigation and in the industrial sector as quoted assume increased production per unit of water in real terms; they do reflect some change in the basic production cycle, that is adapting to more economical cropping patterns and changing industrial processes. The levels of direct and indirect water production through savings and improved efficiency of water use are very important as they represent a permanent reduction in demand. Israel has gone a long way in its efforts while the West BankIGaza, Jordan, Syria and the Lebanon could still benefit significantly from such efforts to curb demand and reduce the need to develop new and expensive sources. The term 'efforts' is much more complicated than it sounds. It means the large-scale application of appropriate irrigation technology (drip, sprinkler, automation), changes in industrial water use and water processes (like 'cascading' changes and cooling methods) and the wide scale application of demand-management policies and technologies in the cities. Training, public education and effective extension systems must accompany the promotion and implementation instruments. These measures are over stressed as the 'trickle down' system and will not work by themselves. Finally, the efficiency of pricing mechanisms and the

MANAGING SCARCE WATER: RECENT ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

31

application of a market system can play a dominant role in the whole operation. The significant achievements of Israel's agricultural sector are shown in Figures 3, 4 and 5 which clearly identify the results over 45 years in economic as well as physical terms. A comparison of prevailing prices for irrigation water between Jordan and Israel illustrates and partially explains the gap in the two countries' agricultural yieldlm3, and the potential for reducing agricultural water demand. Israel could play an important role in the application of demandmanagement policies throughout the Middle East and thus help to delay the need for expensive future projects in the area. Water conservation should be the first priority short-term strategy within proposed plans for regional co-operation. However, if only one partner invests and applies rigid demand management policies the impact will be limited. Overall demand for water will rise beyond the supply capacity and over-pumping may lead to regional conflicts.

Urban water conservation Unaccounted-for water (UFW) causes significant water and financial losses to urban utilities and municipalities. Unaccounted-for water has been substantially reduced in Israel, but remains a serious problem in Jordan, the West Bank/Gaza and other Middle Eastern countries. In Jordan, for example, UFW rates in some cities are over 50 per cent and represent critical water and financial losses. Leakage, estimated to account for almost 50 per cent of the total UFW, could reach 30 m3 per capitalyear which means that 3 million m31year could be recovered per 100,000urban users. If multiplied by 50 centdm3 (the minimum marginal cost of future water supply), a utility's annual financial losses could equal approximately US$ 15 million per one million urban residents. There is no doubt, given experiences in Israel and many other countries, that these losses can be reduced to more reasonable levels. Large sums of money can be saved and reinvested in further conservation and maintenance efforts. Studies done in Israel and California show that the costs of water saved through leakage control vary significantly, from US$0.15-0.351m3. UFW reduction activities are usually an integral part of improving utility management; utilities cannot reach financial viability without it.

Figure 5 The agricultural sector - Israel Allocation and use of water (in mcm)

Used (reported by farmers)

Used (excl efflu., flood, priv use)

allocated water and used water in 1992 are: (1) a particularly long and rainy winter season, (2) high water prices, (3) a reduction in dunurns planted due to low profitability. 800 1989

1990

1991

1992

Year

Source: The Agricultural Sectors: 1991-92, Ministry of Agriculture, The Jewish Agency, Israel, January quoted in Just et al., Problems and prospects in the political economy of trans-boundary water issues, University of Maryland, September 1994.

MANAGING SCARCE WATER: RECENT ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

35

Comprehensive urban demand management addresses demand reduction at both the household and utility levels and, if applied on a large scale, it should reduce the cost of water in the Middle East as a whole. Demand management efforts in Israel, Singapore, California, the Boston area and other regions have produced significant results using water conservation kits (retrofitting). The kits (including toilet flush reduction, two-volume flushing, regulated shower heads, flow regulators in kitchen and bathroom sink taps, leakage control and technologies to improve garden and park irrigation) achieved demand reductions of 1020 per cent (sometimes 20-40 per cent) and at an approximate cost US$ 0.10-0.15/m3 - retrofitting is done in households and commercial buildings. Figure 6 shows that despite substantial increases in GDP/capita, standards of living, the introduction of modem appliances and an increase in the area of parks and gardens, urban water consumption per capita has declined in the last ten years. Figure 7 and Table 2 illustrate to the reader and to decision-makers the significant potential of demand reduction by using conservation technologies. The savings have been achieved in households at various income levels and especially in commercial institutions. Technology enables water users to save despite their indifference. These efforts could 'produce' millions of cubic metres of water in each country at one of the lowest marginal costs available in the region. If the total urban population in Israel used demand management appliances, the water savings could have reached 100-150 million m3 in 1994. However, it must be stressed that if the sewage effluent is totally and efficiently reused, the end result of demand management is mainly accounted for in economic terms as incremental operation and maintenance savings associated with water supply and waste treatment. In addition to domestic and commercial use, city and residential parks and household gardens should be re-fitted with drip irrigation and/or small automated irrigation systems. To conclude: One cannot underestimate the importance of urban and domestic water demand management strategies. As the growth of water consumption in the region will be concentrated in cities and towns, thus a water conservation strategy will generate permanent savings at low marginal costs.

Table 2 Findings from a number of surveys on the savings obtained from installation of "in-house" water saving devices Location

Survey Period

Police stations & other installations

1989 4 Months

Mizra boarding school Apartments in Bavli, Tel Aviv Ma'ale Efraim (300 apartments) Eilat (3500 apartments)

1988-1989 1 year 1987 4 Months 1991 1991

Devices Savings Comments Installed Obtained (%) * Flow controlled shower Leakages also repaired; heads and faucets 50% No defects or complaints reported * Dual-flushing cisterns

* Flow controlled shower

13.50%

No defects or complaints reported; Hot water savings No defects or complaints reported

* Full retrofit set

36%

No defects or complaints reported

* Full retrofit set

16%

No defects or complaints reported

heads * Dual-flushing cisterns

30%

Source: ICWE (Water Commission), Y. Kahana, Water conservation measures in Israel, 1991 and 1992.

MANAGING SCARCE WATER: RECENT ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

39

Water demand management / Effluent re-use in the production sectors Israel has completed most of its efforts at establishing and adopting water demand management for existing industries while new industries are currently installing cooling systems and pre-designed 'cascading' facilities. The price mechanism as well as effluent charges are gradually being enforced and are contributing their share to industrial water management. Many of the industries are located in the urban sector and are subject to the additional utility prices. An additional revision of the data based on the value of incremental water savings in the industrial sector indicates that the value of a saved unit of water ranges between US$ 0.10-0.501m3. In most of the cases the lower figure is attributed to basic water management practices and the upper limit indicates the savings involved with air cooling and re-use of in-house effluent after complete secondary or tertiary treatment of its wastes. The average cost of water saved in previous and modest efforts was in the US$ 0.15-0.251m3 range. The fresh water allocation for the Israeli industry is approximately 7-8 per cent of the total use and therefore the additional potential savings are relatively small. However, the environmental impact of industrial wastes could by itself justify higher levels of investment in treatment facilities as in-house treatment and re-use reduces potential pollution of streams and water resources. The remarkable results of the campaign and resulting measures in the industrial sub-sector are shown in Figures 8 and 9. A unique reduction of water demand and use per 1000 NIS (in real terms) was achieved, mainly during the period of 1964-1977. Fresh water use for industrial consumption has hardly changed but larger quantities of brackish water have been introduced. Re-use of waste water effluent should be analysed in the context of industrial and urban conservation. When effluent charges are enforced and subsidies are removed, market forces may typically produce the optimum results. Israel will probably demand that the Palestinian Authority assures adequate effluent treatment and disposal policies in order to ensure the safety of the sensitive mountain aquifer underlying the West Bank. As relatively high levels of treatment will have to be adopted, it is reasonable to assume that local re-use for imgation purposes will be the most cost-effective solution, mainly in areas where aquifer pollution

~

m

w

b

w

m

e

m

C

OOOI SIN 1 J a W a Jo Em

-

i

4

0

MANAGING SCARCE WATER: RECENT ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

Figure 9 Industrial water consumption

50 1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

Year

Industrial Water consumption (mcm) Year

Total

Fresh water

1962 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1987 1989

75 80 83 90 95 100 108 110

60 60 60 60 65 70 78 80

Source: ICWE (Water Commission), Y. Kahana, Water conservation measures in Israel, 1991 and 1992.

1990

41

42

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

is not expected. Drip irrigation of horticulture tree crops is preferred in these conditions when the fields surround most, if not all, the towns and cities. It is essential that the design and implementation of adequate sewerage systems are given top priority when the external funding instruments become available. Vegetable imgation should be avoided and therefore high-level monitoring must be established. Effluent re-use is a valuable method of reducing demand for water and therefore it is used in conjunction with water conservation. The legislative/ financial/ economic arrangements for conservation and re-use should be closely linked. Industrial effluent charges and demand management, for example, should be integrated in a common programme. When effluent charges are correctly imposed and enforced the public sector will not need, in many cases, to monitor industrial (and perhaps urban) water conservation. Minimizing effluent flows will lessen costs to industry and reduce consumers' water bills, thus internalizing the decision-making process. Urban water re-use: the economics of this strategy is strongly linked to whether the effective and efficient use of effluents for irrigation is a viable option. Treatment and transfer costs could determine whether a river or a marine outfall is the most economical option and under what conditions farmers will be ready to trade fresh water for treated effluent (i.e., at what price and ratio of exchange, under what investment sharing plan between the city and farmers and whether 'bridging' funds are provided by the authorities). So there is a clear connection between urban demand management activities (not the reduction of unaccounted-for water, which is a separate issue) and effluent quality, effluent re-use and trade-off policy, and legislation. Salinization of the effluents could make them inadequate for irrigation so the city has a direct incentive to avoid 'contaminating' the waste flows. See Figure 10 for some basic projections and estimates of waste-water availability and re-use. Israel intends to reuse most of its treated waste-water, subject to economic feasibility. A major obstacle to the completion of the National Re-use Master Plan is the controversial issue of the environmental impacts of discharges of highly treated effluents into the Mediterranean Sea. The international agreement on the Mediterranean Sea (World Bank/UNEP/governments/ Medplan) allows discharges of well treated secondary effluents, that is the level of treatment which was standard practice in Israel in 1995. Cities may tend to take the cheap option of discharging to the sea rather

Quantity of waste-water and effluent use (mcmlyear)

g g g g g g g g g

44

WATER, PEACE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

than the currently more expensive one of further treatment to the level required by re-use in irrigation. The position is evolving and pricing and regulatory measures are likely to steer water treatment to the level specified for irrigation re-use.

Increased efficiency of irrigation systems Israel has been involved in improving irrigation efficiency since the 1960s and offered increased financial support and credits for implementation during the 1970s. These efforts were partially supported by the World Bank Agricultural Credit projects. To date, gravity irrigation has been eliminated, most farms have been redesigned and modem sprinkler, drip and automated systems have been installed. Old pipes have been replaced and the concept of measuring the value of water by its incremental contribution to yields has been developed. These changes led many farmers to alter and greatly improve their cropping patterns. There is still a great deal that can be done with improved soil and extension systems and further applied research. The trend is toward higher-value crops, especially as a result of the fluctuations in world prices for cotton (a major irrigated crop), citrus, oil seeds, export vegetables and others. Water rates, equipment pricing and credit mechanisms could play a dominant role in this sub-sector, as could the availability of incentives and appropriate technology.

Water market - a temporary or permanent solution? Water in Israel is used within a system of allocations (annual or multiannual) while in most countries it is user rights that determine use. In many regions, a person who owns land (or cultivates it) has the right to the water flowing beside and under the plot. In other regions various quota systems allocate the amounts of water on an annual, monthly, weekly, daily or even hourly basis. Veteran users usually have the right to continue to use the resource. Riparian rights and other rights were obtained like titles on land, despite changes in population, prices (shadow costs of water) and water quality.

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Throughout the world and in the Middle East in particular, the absence of adequate price mechanisms has led to substantial inefficiencies in water utilization. This is true in Israel, despite the tight allocation system and relatively high prices. At present, for example, farmers pay for 50 per cent of their water at the frozen 1989 rate of 15 cents/m3, for the next 30 per cent at 19 centdm3 and for the balance at 25 cents/m3. Additionally, there is a formula for the automatic updating of the rates. However, the efficiency of water resource allocation and use can be substantially improved through the increased use of price mechanisms. For example, trading water on the margin or using a system in which urban/ industrial demand is met by supply from farmers could reduce inefficiency. Irrigation water in Israel was, and is today, partially subsidized when supplied by the National Water Company. This administrative allocation system creates a 'rent seeking' operation for the development of new resources and higher demand leads to over-pumping from underground sources. Over-pumping leads in turn to the development of new expensive resources (where unit cost is higher than marginal product value) and is causing deterioration in the quality of existing resources as well. Total cost recovery is not assured, funds for replacement are not accumulated and the sector relies on state budgets which are subject to macro-economic and political considerations. Water has been regarded as an instrument for social income distribution and an equalization fund was established between higher- and lower-cost water. Presently, water for the urban sector in Israel is not subsidized: city utilities pay actual delivery costs, adding distribution costs, plus sanctions for higher unaccounted for water and effluent charges. Marginal quantities at 'C' rate used by many households pay over US$ 1.2/m3 (inclusive of sewerage charges). An improved system could therefore achieve significant progress in the sector as a whole.

A brief outline of proposed changes First, water would be charged at its shadow price (or opportunity cost). Suppliers would operate as controlled public utilities, new projects would be established if rates match marginal costs and if financial markets will support the investments. Price mechanisms will thus promote the total

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efficiency of the sector and possibly eliminate the 'rent-seeking' impact and potential political conflicts. Second, the new system would enable transfer of water between various users - mainly from agricultural consumers to cities, to the PPA and to Jordan - with minimum conflict with farmers, who 'sell' part of their allocation (or are compensated for the loss of income). The water market will facilitate short and medium-term solutions for Israel. It could also serve to improve the nation's water relations with the Proposed Palestinian Autonomy and Jordan. The proposal is based on classical economic principles that would help Israel, the PPA and Jordan to meet growing demand for water in the urban sector and, at the same time, will encourage farmers to increase their water efficiency. The parties will voluntarily trade water, under the supervision of an agency like the Water Commission, with the expectation of making a profit from the trade. Although the urban sector in Israel enjoys great benefits within the present policies, it could profit tremendously from the new system in the long run through savings in water desalting costs. Most parties in the region will benefit by obtaining water at costs lower than other alternatives or by exporting or selling water at a cost higher than its marginal value to them. One option would involve the exchange of water based on the shadow price at the transaction site. The assessment of the adequate shadow-price could be done using an economic simulation model like the one developed by HawardKennedy SchoolflSEM with local experts. (The simulation model is needed because shadow-prices are not available and are subject to constant changes.) There are also other options available for setting trading costs, like the NWC Accounting System. Following the basic agreement on water allocation between Israel and Jordan (as well as for Jericho and Gaza) water will be traded under economic rules. The supervisory agency will monitor the market mechanism and could act as mediator to transfer the revenues from sales to the contributors (minus transaction costs). Prices will be updated as they fluctuate according to supply and demand. Revenues from transactions could be used for investments to improve and expand the water transfer system or to reduce transaction costs. The economic model should also assist in the appraisal of alternatives. Different trading mechanisms can be implemented. One option is joint management by the parties - Israel and the Palestinian Authority, Israel

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and a Jordanian agency, or the three together with or without an international agency like the World Bank acting as a facilitator and as a funding source for transactions and investments. The national water system of Israel run by Mekorot (the national water company, supplying about 65 per cent of the water in Israel) is highly developed and this will help minimize transaction costs.

Conclusions Out of approximately 600 mcm/y being supplied to the urban and industrial sectors in Israel, it is possible and feasible to reduce the water demand by 15-20 per cent. It is assumed that if the proper programme is implemented 80-120 mcm of water per year can be saved. It can delay a future sea water desalination plant (at an estimated investment cost of approximately US$ 400 million) and will save present running costs (energy, chemicals etc.) of approximately US$ 0.15-0.20/m3. As most of the incremental demand growth will be concentrated in the urbanlindustrial sector, a comprehensive demand management policy should become a major component of the regional water policy. In the year 2020, when the population west of the River Jordan will rise to over 12 million, the potential savings would amount to approximately 200 mcm/y and if multiplied by present sea-water desalination costs it may reach a saving of US$ 200 million per year. This huge sum of money could be used for indefinite coverage of water conservation and effluent re-use projects throughout the region. Increasing efficiency of water use in agriculture could by itself generate substantial increases in production per unit of water (or effluent) and/or absolute savings. It is estimated that the cost per cubic metre of water saved (or its comparable value in production) will be, based on Israeli experience, approximately 10-15 US cents which is much lower than the forecast marginal cost of additional water in Israel.

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References Arlosoroff, S., 1995, Promoting Regional Co-operation in the Middle East, Harry S . Truman Research Institute, IGCC- University of California and others. Arlosoroff, S., 1978, Israel A Model for Water Resources Management, United Nations. Just, R., Horowits, K. and Netanyahu, S., Problems andprospects in the political economy of trans-boundary water issues, University of Maryland, September 1994. Kahana, Y., 1991, Water Conservation Measures in Israel, UNEP Mediterranean Action Plan plus various other documents, Tel Aviv: ICWElWater Commission. World Bank, Sustainable Environmental Solutions in the Middle East, Various documents, 1994, 1995, Washington DC: The World Bank.

Palestinian management options and challenges within an environment of scarcity and power imbalance

Y. NASSER

Introduction Water management under conditions of scarcity poses major difficulties for officials and policy makers. Under conditions of water crisis the problems and difficulties are compounded. Under conditions of unequal balance of power in favour of one contending user over another, as in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, water management problems are made even more complex and challenging. When all of these conditions obtain water management problems the difficulties are, to say the least, overwhelming (Isaac and Shuval, 1994). This is the scenario which the Palestinian people and the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) endure. They have to confront the challenges and difficulties not only of water management, but of establishing and building a water management structure and a water policy, and developing the appropriate methodologies and tools with which to tackle the problems. The major and immediate challenges are on three levels: first, negotiations over water rights between riparian states; second, the development of institutional, monitoring, regulatory and enforcement capabilities; and third, the development of innovative socio-economic approaches (WRAP, 1994) to the supply and allocation of scarce water (even if the supply is augmented through successful resolution of the water rights issue).

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Water Scarcity Water scarcity is a factor which intensifies the difficulty of the tasks confronting the Palestine National Authority on all three levels. It has been recognized that water in Israel and Jordan is a scarce resource. In the designated Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza water scarcity is more intense. Regardless of the criteria used to identify conditions of 'water stress' or 'water scarcity', the quantity of water available to both Jordan and Israel places them on the critical list (Grey, 1994). In the Palestinian territories the quantity of water available places them on the emergency list. In the Gaza Strip the newly established Palestinian authority is facing an emergency situation in the water sector inherited after 27 years of occupation. Overpumping of the aquifer over the past two decades has led to massive degradation of the only source of fresh water available. Since the hand over of the Gaza Strip to the PNA, over 1000 unregistered wells have come into operation, further compounding the problem of over-abstraction. Today the scarcity of water in the Gaza Strip is a major constraint on economic development. Furthermore, past and continued over-abstraction of water from the aquifer has degraded the quality of water which in turn has produced negative impacts on the economy. The economic impact is primarily evident in cropping patterns and in the general health of the population. At present the quantity of water supplied in Palestine does not satisfy prevailing need. Water scarcity is at present a major constraint on the growth of imgated agriculture in both the West Bank and Gaza. In the West Bank there is an estimated 500,000 dunums of land and in Gaza another 100,000 dunums which could be brought under irrigation (one hectare equals approximately 10 dunums, one acre equals 4.24 dunums). However, the quantity of water available is not sufficient to provide water for this potentially irrigable area. In the West Bank, the domestic sector water demand comes from urban centres and villages, two hundred of which lack piped water. In addition to the scarcity of domestic water there is serious mis-allocation of water between and within sectors. With the rapid growth of population, combined with the inadequacy of the disposal and/or treatment systems for waste water, and the absence of effective regulation and enforcement capacity as well as of appropriate pricing and costing

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policy for water, water scarcity is intensifying and water quality in the West Bank is progressively deteriorating. The present conditions in Gaza are mainly a product of the past and continuing absence of serious and effective management of the Gaza coastal aquifer. The major constraints and problems exist because of the natural shortage of water compounded by the lack of effective supply and demand management of water. However water scarcity in the West Bank is of a different nature. The artificial barriers placed by Israeli occupation forces since 1967, namely forbidding the extension of Palestinians' access to and management of the water resources of the mountain aquifers, is the major cause of the water shortage. The present Palestinian consumption from the West Bank aquifers comes to less than 20 per cent of the estimated annual discharge of around 550 million cubic metres. Furthermore most of the Palestinian water comes from sources which existed prior to Israeli occupation, the majority from the Eastern aquifer which has no impact on Israeli water abstraction from the other West Bank aquifers. In 1995 in the two hundred villages in the West Bank without piped water and those villages and urban centres with piped water, the amount of water being supplied falls far short of potential total demand. It has been estimated by Palestinian water experts that the current level of domestic supply in the West Bank falls short by over 50 per cent of total demand. At present the average per capita annual domestic consumption in the West Bank averages around 27 cubic metres and around 33 cubic metres in Gaza, whereas in Israel the equivalent figure is around 100 cubic metres. Furthermore Palestinian consumers in the West Bank pay about double the price per cubic metre that Israeli consumers pay. The suppressed demand of Palestinian consumers as a consequence of both natural and artificial constraints on their access to water is substantial. Even if artificial constraints were to be removed and access to more water achieved, any augmentation of supply would require the effective and efficient investment of capital and allocation of human resources. The major challenges facing the Palestinians are not only to recover lost water rights but to establish and develop efficient and effective water resources institutions, management procedures, allocation systems and regulations and in the immediate future. This will enhance the probability of regaining those rights, by curtailing Israeli resistance, and reducing the constraints on development (social and economic) which water scarcity

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may otherwise impose. Even if such measures fail to contribute to the regaining of water rights, it remains a priority to develop a water sector that is efficient and effective, which in turn will enhance rather than constrain Palestinian economic and social development.

Negotiations and water rights Along with the issues of Jerusalem and the Jewish settlements, negotiations over water rights between the Palestinians and Israelis were postponed in 1995. This was an indication of the scarcity of water in the region and of the adamant diametrical positions held by each side. Water scarcity is reflected by the fact that at present the total water use in Israel (around 1,700 mcm) and in the Palestinian Tenitory (West Bank around 120 mcm and Gaza around 115 mcm) approximates to the annual renewable quantity of water resources in these areas. The scarcity along with numerous declarations by Israeli water officials makes the likelihood of Israel giving up some of the sources which it presently uses to the Palestinians, regardless of Palestinian rights, highly problematic. The difficulty facing Palestinian negotiators is compounded by two additional factors; first is the non-binding and non-enforceable nature of international laws, rules and treaties which may be used as a reference for the resolution of the dispute. Second is the unequal balance of power in favour of Israel both on the local scene in terms of military might and on the international scene in terms of resistance to political pressure from the international community. Even if international legislation is accepted as a basis, the criteria for determining water rights embodied in these documents can be referred to by both sides as justifying their respective positions. Israeli willingness to return water 'ownership' rights to Palestine will primarily depend on Israel's assessment of the benefits of peace. It will also depend on Israel's perception of Palestinian willingness and capability to develop sound water policies and establish a water management capacity that will allocate scarce water efficiently and effectively and not be harmful to Israel (if not beneficial).

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Institutions and management The problem of scarcity also poses major challenges in the institution building sphere (Feitelson and Haddad, 1994). The task of establishing and developing institutional capacity from scratch is difficult in its own right; to achieve it under conditions of water and capital scarcity and the lack of professional and bureaucratic experience compounds the problems immensely. The recent establishment of the Palestine Water Authority (PWA) provides the first step in institution building. The major challenges facing the PWA are (a) the need to streamline or replace existing water laws, (b) to establish, implement and enforce simple but effective legislation, and (c) to build the appropriate institutional structure. The need to act is pressing given the uncontrolled digging of wells (estimated at over 1000 during the past year) and the over abstraction of water from the aquifer. The consequences of the continuation of present practice will be the destruction of the Gaza coastal aquifer, and the loss of a potential of between 50 to 60 mcm of fresh water per annum. The cost of losing this quantity of fresh water would include the socio-economic cost in forgone agricultural output and the outflow of scarce capital to pay for the import of water in addition to the cost of dependency on external sources. The challenge is to define clear, effective and efficient national legislation which will determine and clearly define the 'rights' to water resources, as well as identifying and monitoring water resources and their legitimate uses. It will further be necessary to set water quality standards according to use and set standards for the protection of water resources. Redefining water rights under conditions of scarcity will be very difficult and will be strongly resisted by those who benefit from the prevailing situation. In addition the Water Authority must have the power and means to enforce the laws and regulations governing water rights and water use. Another question posing a major challenge not only to the Palestine Water Authority and the Palestinian Authority but to the Palestinian people as well is how water is to be treated. Should water be considered a 'special element' or should it be considered a 'commodity'? The resolution of this major dilemma is necessary for the efficient allocation of scarce water. In the past countries in the region have tended to view water as a special element, with it being considered as too important vis a vis the

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interests of the state (or power group) and its security and survival for its allocation to be determined by any other means than the central state authority. As a result these countries have focused on supply side solutions to the problem of scarcity, by means of the augmentation of supply regardless of economic costs, or at best with secondary consideration of such costs. However, once the sources of water supply were seriously impaired, and in some instances exhausted, the futility of this approach has become apparent. Despite increasing recognition and advocacy of the need for alternative solutions, namely demand side solutions, these countries have not seriously incorporated the approach of managing demand into policy and practice. All countries of the region continue to subsidize and therefore mis-allocate their scarce water resources, thus compounding the problem of scarcity. Regional experience has shown that supply side solutions are not sufficient to resolve water scarcity problems, particularly in the long run. At present the Palestine Water Authority is in a unique position in that in Palestine there are no entrenched bureaucratic institutional structures to tear down and no major interest groups to oppose its activities. In addition, the past experience and blunders of neighbouring as well as world-wide water authorities can be identified, assessed and avoided. Although supply side solutions alone are not sufficient, they are necessary particularly in the Palestinian case. Over the past 27 years minimal investment has occurred in water resource development and supply augmentation, as reflected by the low yearly consumption per capita and the number of villages without water networks. One of the major tasks confronting the Palestine Water Authority is in the sphere of supply augmentation. Augmentation of water supply not only includes regaining water rights in the mountain aquifers but includes efficient means of tapping these sources as well as the deployment of innovative and non-conventional methods of water production. Alternative sources of supply augmentation have been identified by Palestinians in a host of institutions, in particular the Water Resources Action Program (WRAP) and the Palestine Hydrology Group (PHG). Among the alternative sources identified are rainwater harvesting, flood control and harvesting, waste water treatment and re-use, artificial recharge and, as a last resort in the long run, the option of desalination. These alternative supply sources as well as traditional sources must be addressed with economic costs and benefits in mind. The challenge here is to achieve supply

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augmentation in an effective manner but even more important is to augment supply efficiently, and thus maximize welfare and ensure the protection of Palestine's environmental capital (Serageldin et al., 1993). The sufficient condition, as shown by past experience, for increasing the quantity of water available for consumption and for maximizing efficiency in the water sector is the incorporation of demand management concepts and tools in dealing with water scarcity problems. The unique position in which the Palestine Water Authority finds itself is further enhanced by the opportunity to identify and adapt a dual approach to Palestinian water scarcity problems (Baskin, 1994 and Elrnusa, 1994). The challenge as well as the opportunity is how to incorporate both supply side and demand side solutions simultaneously. The challenge of implementing demand side solutions to the scarcity problem is great. This not only requires the introduction of laws defining appropriate water rights and promoting the view in the majority of the population that water is a commodity but it also entails convincing the average man in the street that water is a scarce resource. This in particular will be a major challenge given that under occupation access to Palestinian water resources has been controlled by Israel and denied to Palestinians. It will be extremely difficult to convince people that even if Palestinians regain access to their water a situation of scarcity will continue to exist. A further obstacle and challenge is dealing with the prevailing socioreligious outlook towards water as a 'gift from God' (or nature). Innovative approaches to resolve these views are necessary. As one observer noted, water in situ is a gift of nature but its abstraction and conveyance requires human and capital investment. Therefore traditional views and perceptions must be tempered by economic facts, namely the cost of provision and the opportunity costs of use in one sector versus the cost in another. Criteria such as the value added per cubic metre of water in productive enterprises must be seriously considered in terms of the allocation of water use to different sectors and within sectors. Questions of who pays and how much for the provision of water, and who pays and how much for the forgone use must be addressed and must be resolved. To develop awareness of these questions requires the identification and development of non-biased, efficient and egalitarian criteria. Their incorporation and acceptance (by society) is essential for maximizing allocation and utilization of scarce water, and the achievement of welfare.

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Serious consideration must be given to the use of economic tools, such as the pricing of water, and the development of water markets. In order to implement this dual approach the Palestinian Water Authority must have reliable data, the capability to assess these data, and then transform them into knowledge. At present there is a shortage of reliable data, and what data that do exist, in the Gaza Strip for example, are in raw form and their reliability is highly questionable. When Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip it left very little behind. In the West Bank the data continue to be exclusively in the hands of the Israelis and Palestinians are denied access to them on the pretext of security. Therefore one of the initial tasks confronting the Palestinian Water Authority is that of data collection, data assessment and analysis, and the transformation of hydrological and water use data into information for planning, decision making and the operation of sound management systems.

Conclusion The Palestinian Water Authority is in a unique position to benefit from past experience, successes and failures, of other countries in the region and around the world. It is also uniquely placed to identify and develop a revolutionary Palestinian approach based on the simultaneous application of supply side and demand side solutions which would rely on objective criteria, namely the use of markets and of water pricing, to allocate water among competing uses. Where market failure is inherent, the absence of an entrenched water institution provides the opportunity to develop and incorporate socio-economic safeguards forbidding unequal distribution and the monopolization of water by one group or one sector. The challenges are on two levels; first maximizing supplies and then efficiently allocating these supplies. In the case of Palestine these measures can be attempted simultaneously. However, appropriate national legislation is needed, using strong, independent and effective water institutions (with the power to enforce rules) and a high level of public awareness. Recognition is needed that water is a scarce and valuable resource, and although it is a special element, it is also a commodity which contributes to economic growth and development. In addition, community input into the decision making processes of the

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water institutions is vital for public acceptance of difficult but necessary policies. The challenge is to achieve social recognition and acceptance of the importance and effectiveness, as well as of the limits, of economic tools to determine the supply and allocation of scarce water resources. The achievement of these goals will make the Palestinian Water Authority and the Palestinian Authority credible partners in negotiations concerning trans-boundary water resources and the joint management of these resources, and will also make it much more difficult for Israel to continue to deny Palestinians access to their water rights.

References Baskin, G., 1994, 'The clash over water: an attempt at demystification', Palestine-Israel Journal of Politics, Economics and Culture, No. 3, Jerusalem, Summer 1994. Elrnusa, S., 1994, 'The Israeli-Palestinian water dispute can be resolved', Palestine-Israel Journal of Politics, Economics and Culture, No. 3, Jerusalem, Summer 1994. Feitelson, E. and Haddad, M., eds, 1994, Joint management of shared aquifers: the first workshop, Jerusalem-Palestine Consultancy Group and The Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace. Grey, D., 1994, 'The development of the water resources of the Occupied Palestinian Territories: some key issues', in Isaac, J. and Shuval, H., eds, Water andpeace in the Middle East, Amsterdam: Elsevier. Isaac, J. and Shuval, H., eds, 1994, Water and peace in the Middle East, Amsterdam: Elsevier. Serageldin, I. et al., 1993, Valuing the environment, Proceedings of the First Annual International Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Development, Environmentally Sustainable Development Proceedings Series, No. 2, Washington DC: The World Bank. Water Resources Action Plan task force, 1994, Palestinian water resources: a rapid interdisciplinary sector review and issues paper, Jerusalem: WRAP.

Water management: a Jordanian viewpoint M.J. HADDADIN

Introduction The issues of water quantity and water quality are inseparable since all water uses require that water quality fall within a range specific to that use. Water management and planning must therefore deal with the two aspects in an integrated way. Water management falls within two main categories: supply management, which includes activities required to locate, identify, develop and manage new resources, and demand management, which comprises of mechanisms to promote more desirable levels and patterns of water use. Planning integrates both aspects, along with environmental concerns, and provides an analytical basis for choosing between them. Water planning should reflect the unique characteristics of water, notably its diverse usage and the need for governments to intervene in its allocation and management. The meaning of 'planning' in this context must be understood; it does not mean that governments should control each and every aspect of resource management. It is preferable for many important activities to be decentralized to autonomous, local, private or user entities. Nor does it mean that governments alone should be responsible for setting objectives and priorities. On the contrary, stakeholder participation in decision-making not only promotes accountability and transparency but also leads to solutions that are often more efficient (The World Bank, 1993).

Supply Management Water development projects include, for example, the construction of dams, reservoirs, well fields and canal or pipe networks. As

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accessibility to new surface sources decreases, and projects become more expensive, other sources including groundwater become of greater significance. Ultimately, as renewable freshwater approaches full utilization, non-conventional sources such as treated waste-water, desalination and water imports may become the only sources of new supplies.

Augmentation of irrigation water resources Urban waste-water re-use One way of augmenting irrigation water resources is the re-use of treated urban waste-water, a practice already observed in many water short countries of the Middle East region including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Tunisia and Kuwait. Treated waste-water is being used in irrigation with or without blending it with fresh water. Associated with such re-use are environmental, technical, institutional, sociocultural and sustainability issues as well as issues of public health that have to be adequately addressed. The treated urban waste-water is expected in the future to account for a good percentage of the irrigation water in many of the Middle Eastern countries. Its re-use would in many cases allow fresh water previously used for irrigation to be diverted to municipal and industrial uses. If by the end of this century, for example, urban populations comprise 70 per cent of the total population in the majority of the countries of the region, and the average urban water consumption is around 80 m3 per capita, it is reasonable to suggest that 60 per cent of urban water consumption can be recovered and treated for re-use. This translates into a renewable irrigation water resource of 33.6 m3 per capita. The treated effluent of a city of 3 million people would be sufficient to irrigate about 10,000 hectares. Jordan has embarked on the treatment and re-use of waste-water since the early seventies. Freshwater resources of the Zerqa river were previously diverted for municipal and industrial uses in Amman; these have been replaced by treated waste-water. The construction of the King Tala1 Dam on the Zerqa river helped not only to regulate the effluent

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flow, but also permitted its blending with the impounded flood water of the catchment, thus improving the quality of the treated waste-water. Today, overloading of the waste-water treatment plant at Khirbit AsSamra (the inflow is about double the design capacity) is causing noticeable damage to agriculture in the Middle Jordan Valley. Expansion of the treatment plant is to commence shortly and the quality of the effluent should improve and conform to standards for re-use in irrigation.

Use of brackish water Experimental research on the use of brackish water for irrigation of certain seasonal and perennial crops, especially in sandy soils, has advanced. Extensive fossil waters of marginal quality underlie the territories of several of the countries in the region; these could become a significant source of water for future imgation. Renewable brackish aquifers also underlie some territories and discharge in wadis through springs. Likewise these can be used for irrigation and the production of certain crops. Brackish water has been used in Jordan for some time now although not by design. Over-pumping from groundwater in the north of the country has resulted in higher salinity levels in some aquifers but the use of these waters is still continuing. Water from the Zerqa river and the King Tala1 Dam which has high salinity levels, especially in the summer months, is being used to irrigate vegetables and citrus fruits with visible negative impacts. Care should be taken to ensure compatibility of water salinity with the intended uses in irrigation and the imgated crops. The loss of deciduous and citrus trees was reported last year and losses of certain vegetable crops, irrigated with the same water, have been reported for the last four years. Issues of sustainability, especially soil salinity, parallel the use of brackish water. Careful control of water application has to be exercised, and the choice of salt tolerant varieties of crops would assure better

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Augmentation of municipal and industrial supplies Desalination of brackish and sea water Desalination of sea water is now common practice in the Middle East especially in the six countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). There are 29 desalination plants in Saudi Arabia alone that produce a total of 795 mcm per year and account for 30 per cent of all desalinated water in the world. The six GCC countries have over 55 per cent of the world's desalination capacity. Desalinated water is usually blended with brackish water to produce water with salinity levels acceptable for domestic use. Desalination of brackish groundwater is also practised in the region using 'reverse osmosis' techniques. The produced water is mixed with fresh water and the blend is pumped for domestic use. Associated with such options are economic/financial issues related to the cost of desalination as compared to the GNP per capita, income distribution patterns and other factors, especially in countries not endowed with cheap energy resources. Environmental issues related to the safe disposal of the brine produced, especially in off-shore plants, are also significant. Manpower training and technology transfer are further issues to be considered under the desalination options. With assistance from the Government of Japan, Jordan initiated a programme for brackish water desalination and a sizeable 'pilot' plant is scheduled for installation shortly. The plant will desalinate brackish water (about 300 ppm) for domestic use in the southern Jordan Valley. The brine produced will be disposed of safely in the Dead Sea.

Inter-basin transfer

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water imports

This is another option that has received attention in recent years. In 1984 a study was conducted for Jordan concerning the feasibility of importing 160 mcm per year from the Euphrates River as it crosses the Iraqi border with Syria. The high cost of transferring water to Amman compared to what Jordanians could afford to pay was prohibitive, and the scheme was not implemented. A similar study investigated the possibility of transferring water from the Cehon River near Adana in

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Southwest Turkey to the water short countries of the Middle East, a project often referred to as the 'Peace Pipeline'. Again the cost the scheme was equally prohibitive when compared to the income of consumers and their ability to pay the full cost of the water. Other schemes to import water were suggested but were not scrutinized properly for technical, economic and financial feasibility. Projects to augment water resources for municipal and industrial uses are both capital and energy intensive. A sensible requirement is that middle income and low income economies in the region be further developed to boost their GDP and improve income distribution patterns in order that consumers of the expensive water can afford to pay the cost of supply without heavy subsidies. However, within the territories of Jordan, inter-basin transfers became a familiar solution. As demand for municipal water escalated in the mid-seventies, water was transferred to Amman from the Azraq basin in the east, some 75 kilometres away. More water was transferred to Amman from the Mujib basin to the south and a major project to transfer yet more water to Amman from the Jordan Valley became operational in 1986. A separate project supplied the city of Irbid with water from Jordan Valley resources. More projects to supply urban centres with water from the Jordan Valley (after the peace treaty with Israel settled water sharing) and with fossil water from the Disi aquifer in the south-east part of the country are being studied.

Improved management of supplies Improved management of existing supplies can often be a partial alternative to investment in new supply. Plans for the operation and maintenance (O&M) of water systems are essential prerequisites for planning at both basin and project levels. For a variety of reasons, however, planning for operation and maintenance has often been deficient, especially when it comes to the implementation of such plans. Improved management often provides a cost effective means of increasing freshwater supplies. Examples of this include conjunctive use of surface and groundwater in real time and integrated basin-wide management.

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Ample room exists for improving the management of water supplies in Jordan, and for reducing the cost of operations and maintenance. Manpower deployment figures in the water sector reveal overemployment and increasing costs. The introduction of automated systems, now being planned, can enhance management provided that a corresponding decrease in manpower deployment is exercised.

Reallocation of supplies Very few countries have been willing to consider reallocation of water from irrigation to municipal and industrial uses. Irrigation accounts for about 80 per cent of the water use regionwide. It is argued that a small proportion of irrigation water, if diverted to municipal uses, could resolve the municipal shortages. In Morocco, for example, a five per cent diversion from irrigation could double the supplies available for municipal uses, while in Jordan a five per cent diversion would contribute 15 per cent to the supplies now available for municipal and industrial uses. There are reasons for the reluctance of governments to commit themselves to the reallocation of water resources despite visible attractions. Diversion of water away from irrigation in arid areas destroys the viability of agriculture and invites desertification with immense adverse environmental impacts. Not only will the multiplier effects and costs to the third parties be very substantial but governments are also very reluctant to accept de-population of rural areas and migration to urban areas which are already under extreme pressure. Unemployment among farmers would rise and their skills to perform non-agricultural jobs are limited. Moreover, it is significantly less expensive to create jobs in the agricultural sector than it is to create an equal number of jobs in other sectors such as industry, transportation and mining. Where consideration of supply reallocation is entertained, a full equilibrium analysis of the regional economy and its relationship with the national economy should be made. This would show whether reallocation is economically justified. A social impact assessment and an environmental impact assessment should also be made. In some cases, however, the spread of urban areas onto irrigated land will itself release

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irrigation water for other uses. The Ghuta of Damascus in Syria and the springs of Amman, Jordan are an example of this process.

Demand Management Demand management can take the form of direct measures to control the use of water and indirect measures that affect voluntary behaviour (public awareness, market mechanisms and financial incentives, for example). Price and market distortions often magnify both scarcity and water quality problems. Low water charges have many disadvantages ranging from encouraging wasteful, extravagant habits to imposing pressures on the budgets of operation and maintenance. Input pricing distortions can also pose a threat to industrial pollution. Excessively low fertiliser prices similarly lead to increased fertiliser consumption which results in the degradation of the quality of water supplies. Demand management measures aim at increasing water use efficiency, and, possibly, equity (Bhatia et al., 1992). Efficiency is, however, a relative concept and must reflect all the interactions in the water cycle. For instance, irrigation efficiencies at the farm or scheme level may be relatively low but, if water losses recharge groundwater or are re-used via the drainage system, basin efficiency can be much higher. Scheme level efficiencies in Egypt are, for instance, notoriously low by the standard of other countries in the region, but annual average efficiency in the Nile basin between the Aswan High Dam and the sea is estimated at 65 per cent, which is comparable to the efficiency of modem concrete lined canals with land levelling. This is the result of reusing the seepage water in the basin for agriculture.

Public awareness Frameworks designed to invite stakeholders' participation in decisionmaking promote transparency and accountability, and can secure public support and commitment to the water policies and programmes. Appeals to the public through public education programmes and similar initiatives can lead to significant changes in human behaviour related to water use and conservation. These are generally very cheap when

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compared to other investments in the water sector, and should thus be encouraged and supported by countries in the region. Jordan has embarked on a public awareness programme through educational material, the information media and specialized seminars. This programme should not only be sustained but further reinforced and expanded.

Water efficiency improvements Reduction of water losses is important in any demand management programme. Unaccounted-for water in urban delivery systems in Jordan has now reached 56 per cent. While some of the losses can be recycled, loss reduction should always take first priority. Leakage detection and repair programmes, replacement of old networks, identification of illegal connections, gauging of defective water meters and reduction in system pressures can each play a part. Many water-saving devices and technologies have been introduced to world markets and can be promoted for use in the countries of the region. Technical interventions to reduce water losses have particular potential in irrigation. Canal lining and improved conveyance technologies can save water in the order of 10-30 per cent. At the farm level, surface irrigation can be improved through land levelling and the introduction of advanced on-farm irrigation techniques. Microirrigation in particular has the potential for major savings which, compared to surface methods, can be in the order of 30-50 per cent. Micro-irrigation techniques can also improve the agricultural output from a unit area of land per unit flow of water. Drip methods have been introduced and are now widely used in Jordan, and sprinkler and drip methods are being widely used in the reclamation of land in Egypt. In Jordan, the open canal networks have been replaced with pressure pipe networks with farm turnout assemblies that contain pressure regulators, flow meters and other devices. Conveyance efficiency has improved substantially. Parallel advances in on-farm irrigation techniques, primarily drip methods for vegetables and micro-sprinklers for trees, have contributed substantially to overall irrigation efficiency. Protected farming in plastic houses has also spread, and the agricultural yields per unit area of land and unit flow water have increased many

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fold. These achievements are, however, clouded by agricultural marketing problems, the increased cost of inputs, and suppressed market prices and returns to farmers. In the municipal water sector, projects to replace the old leaking networks are underway, and the expansion in the construction of wastewater collection networks is sustained.

Regulatory measures The most direct regulation is to mandate water use. Rationing or rational deliveries can achieve comparable effect and are commonly adopted in drought years, or where demand exceeds the delivery capacity of the system. Such measures can maximize the return from scarce water resources. Direct control on cropping patterns is another option which in principle could reduce water consumption at the farm level, steering cropping decisions to accord with economic costs and benefits. This may have adverse effects on the net farm income and on the value added in agriculture. Both options have been exercised in Jordan, especially in the Jordan Valley. Control on cropping patterns has been abandoned in favour of farmers' choice, but rationing of irrigation water has been exercised, mainly because demand outstrips available supplies, especially in the dry months. The regulation of groundwater exploitation is a universal but often intractable problem. Uncontrolled overdrafts from groundwater aquifers is not uncommon in the countries of the region. Administrative capacities for proper controls are not sufficient and should be reinforced and equipped with modern technological means of surveillance. In Jordan, similarly to other countries of the region, overdrafts have reached dangerous proportions and should be curtailed. Regulation of water quality standards has widely been adopted and over ambitious targets have sometimes been set. The high costs incurred to meet the quality standards often induce non-compliance. None-point source pollution, notably from fertilizers and pesticides has proven to be a more intractable problem, not only in the region but also world wide. When intensive irrigated agriculture is practised in the recharge areas of the aquifers it poses a direct threat to groundwater quality.

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Water pricing Financial interventions should be made in accordance with two accepted principles: the user pays principle and the polluter pays principle. These two principles are viewed as fair and also often result in more efficient water use. Several approaches have been suggested to structure the financial interventions. One defends the idea of users fully financing the operation and maintenance cost of water supply, another advocates pricing at levels equal to the marginal cost of water. In practice, water charges in Jordan, and elsewhere in the developing world, are normally well below levels needed to recover financial costs let alone rising marginal costs and are thus being set at levels that do not approach the real value of water. In Algeria the long run marginal cost of water to urban consumers, including fresh water supply and distribution, is about US$ 0.52/m3 compared to the average water charge of $0.12/m3. The contrast is more striking in irrigation: current water charges average US$ 0.02/m3 compared to an average marginal water cost of US$ 0.32/m3. In Jordan, current irrigation water charges in public irrigation systems are approximately half the operation and maintenance costs. In Egypt the combined cost of fresh water supply and distribution ranges from US$ 0.03/m3 for rural areas to US$ 0.25/m3 in major urban areas compared to average water charges for domestic consumers of no more than US$ 0.03/m3. To the above costs should be added the cost of collecting and treating waste-water; these costs range from an estimated average of US$ 0.12/m3 in Morocco to US$ 0.37Im3 in Jordan. Wastewater users who are unaware of the economic value of water and enjoying low water charges have no incentive to conserve, and therefore cannot be expected to take responsibility for conservation and the protection of water quality (The World Bank, 1993). Most governments have the objective of setting water charges that will cover the O&M costs of urban utilities and in many cases also a portion of the capital costs. In practice, however, they are often unwilling to implement their own policies and revenues fall short of those needed to recover the O&M costs. Even in Jordan, where urban water charges approach the long run marginal cost of new supplies, unaccounted-for losses and other deficiencies require government subsidies. Water supply services are usually publicly owned and run and

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there exists a view that a certain level of water and sewerage service should be provided, at a cost affordable by all, to maintain public health standards. While this view has some merit, services above basic survival requirements should be charged at the true cost. Irrigation water charges are typically well below even the adequate levels of the municipal sector and many governments are unwilling to accept the principle of irrigation cost recovery. Irrigation water charges are kept below full recovery levels as a means of offsetting low farm incomes and are controlled to keep down food prices in the cities, to maintain agricultural jobs and their related externalities, and to curtail the costly migration from rural to urban areas. However, free irrigation water sends the wrong signal to farmers and increased irrigation water charges should be an important element in the discussions to eliminate price distortions and to 'get the prices right'. Few countries in the region have recognized the need to charge 'adequately' for irrigation supplies. In Morocco, the water law requires that all water consumption be subject to the payment of fees on a common basis even if, in practice, rates in irrigation continue to be well below those in urban areas and as in most countries, irrigation continues to be subsidized. In Egypt and Yemen, surface water supplies for irrigation are provided free with the water agencies financed from taxes and other public revenues. Any meaningful increase in water charges would encourage economies in water use, for instance by encouraging farmers to install water saving irrigation systems and to adjust their cropping patterns for optimum net returns. Pricing of water, however, has been receiving increased attention in many of the countries in the region such as Egypt, Jordan and Syria. Whereas many countries now, in principle, accept the need to increase water charges, the controversial issue is: by how much? Several concepts are being studied in ascertaining water charges. Under perfect market conditions, the economic price of water represents its marginal or opportunity cost. One approach is to price water to cover the operation and maintenance cost of supplying water to the user. A second would include recouping a portion of the capital investment as well. A third approach is to price water at its opportunity cost, or the cost in the next best use, in the short run assuming capacity is fixed. Another view, especially in the face of rising costs of an additional unit of water, is to price it at its long run marginal cost

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(LRMC) which, by definition, would include environmental damage or resource depletion costs. The objective of the pricing policy should be one or a combination of the following (this section is based on Munasinghe, 1992): to allocate resources efficiently between sectors in the economy and within the sector itself to satisfy considerations of equity or the ability to pay of consumers, especially the poor to raise revenues to meet financial requirements of providing the service to subsidize special areas to encourage rapid development political considerations for a special area or sub-sector of the population. Some of the objectives are conflicting and for most countries satisfying these multiple objectives would involve a trade-off. The pricing of water at its LRMC would include the O&M costs, capital costs as well as the cost of resource depletion and environmental damage. This would imply valuing water at its efficient social price to the community, and is different from pricing water assuming that future costs of supplying the additional unit would remain unchanged. Under such a pricing mechanism, if demand is increasing (due to changing patterns of consumption or increases in population as is the case in many of the Arab countries) water supply costs will increase. h practice, it would imply a different structure of prices for different consumers, supply times (peak vs non-peak time), quality of water supplied and geographical areas. When prices are set according to the LRMC under conditions where marginal costs of producing an additional unit of water are increasing, as in many of the Arab countries, a financial surplus may be generated. This could be diverted for subsidizing special groups such as the poor, or those in underdeveloped areas.

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In the face of water scarcity in the Arab region considerations of sustainable development dictate that pricing of water reflect as closely as possible its long run marginal cost. As a first step, water charges should be levied (a) to recover O&M costs plus a portion of the investment costs, and (b) as a tool to encourage efficient use of the resource. Groundwater resources in many countries of the Arab region are depleting at an alarming rate. The market failure corresponds to the case of a common property resource that is depleting. To check continuous depletion, governments can resort to measures such as taxes, assigning water rights or outright controls. Jordan has adopted the latter, including the outright control of drilling for groundwater and abstraction rates. While control of drilling has been fully satisfactory, control of abstraction rates has not been satisfactory at all.

Legislation and institutional issues Legislation provides the basis for government regulation and operations, and also establishes the context for action by nongovernment entities and individuals. Indeed 'recognition of water resource planning in legislation is perhaps the single most significant mechanism for sound decision-making in the management of water resources in the long run' (Burchi, 1989). State ownership of water is an original right which is subject to varying recognition and subject to varying community appropriations. The provisions of Islamic law are visible in the codification of water rights and uses throughout Moslem countries, but the influences of the mandate powers in the region (Britain and France) are also visible in water (and other) legislation in the countries which were under their respective jurisdiction. Islamic law was fully observed under the Ottoman Empire and codification can be found in the 'Majallah', the official gazette of the Ottoman Empire. State permits are generally required for private exploitation of water resources and state supervision is usually a condition built into such permits. (Legislation is still pending in some countries of the region; the Republic of Yemen is one such example.) Protection of water resources against pollution or overuse is organized by legislation under which the

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State assumes the authority and responsibility to assure protection. Implementation of such legislation has not been to the levels expected. Regulatory functions comprise monitoring and enforcement of effective laws, agreements, rules and standards. Many other regulatory functions, including those governing civil service administration, procurement, markets, finance and audits, employment, and private enterprise, have an impact on water (and other areas of the economy). Regulatory functions are often weakly and inconsistently developed in the countries of the region. These weaknesses may be a reflection of factors that go well beyond the water arena so that, in the real world, water resources may often have to accept, and respond to, second best conditions (The World Bank, 1993). Under conditions of increasing scarcity of water resources, and the increasing marginal costs of water supply, the regulatory functions of governments in the water sector have to be improved and reinforced. Government administration of the water sector needs to be reformed with improved efficiency as the primary objective. Such reform would affect the institutional set-up for the management of water resources and encourage a clearer definition of the role of the private sector. One may expect that reallocation of water resources will gain increasing importance, especially in water poor countries of middle income and low income economies. Waste-water treatment and re-use will increase in importance. These and other compelling factors will ensure that institutional and legislation reforms are implemented to cope with the regulatory and other functions that the new water situations bring about.

References Bhatia, R., Cesti, R. and Winpenny, J., 1992, Policies for water conservation and reallocation: good practice cases in improving efficiency and equiry, draft, October 5 , 1992. Burchi, S., 1989, Current development and trends in water resources legislation and administration, Third conference of International Association for Water Law (ADA), Alicante, Spain, 11-14 December 1989.

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Munasinghe, M., 1992, 'Water supply and environmental management: developing world applications', in Studies in water policy and management, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press. World Bank, 1993, A strategy for managing water in the Middle East and North Africa, September 20, 1993, Washington DC: The World Bank.

The political economy of water: reasons for optimism but long term caution J.A. ALLAN

Introduction The international attention focused on water, and the Middle East in particular, since 1990 has been timely and unprecedented in terms of the emphasis given to economic issues relevant to water allocation and management (OECD, 1989; ODA, 1993; World Bank, 1993a and 1993b; Rogers and Lydon, 1994). Since 1990 the Jordan catchment has also been analysed more comprehensively by scientists than at any time in the past with respect to international relations (Lowi, 1994), the economics of water in agriculture (Fishelson, 1992; Brooks, 1994; Lonergan and Brooks, 1995) and in industry (Schiffler, 1994), the use of technology (Elmusa, 1994) and a wide range of factors by Wolf (1995) and Ayeb (1993). The subject has been given a high priority by agency sponsored study teams (PRIDE, 1992) as well as by teams of scientists in Cambridge, Massachusetts (Fisher, 1994). Those involved in the Peace Talks have, in parallel with scientists meeting informally, devoted significant attention to new approaches to the allocation and management of surface and groundwater resources (Isaac and Shuval, 1994; Feitelson and Haddad, 1994 and 1995). The transition in changing approaches to water allocation and management is complex in that there are many interested parties. Some of them, such as the international agencies, have been arguing for the implementation of new policies based on economic and conservation principles since 1990 (World Bank, 1990). The ideas of the staff of such agencies continue to evolve and there is evidence that the approaches recommended by the World Bank have reached the regional agencies (ECSCWA, 1994). Meanwhile the scientific community has fairly readily adopted them in countries in the industrialized world which have

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extensive tracts of arid and semi-arid lands such as those in the southwest of the United States and in Australia. Governments and professionals in these water stressed countries have recognized the need to reduce water use to sustainable levels and at the same time gain better returns to water. In the Middle East the adoption of new approaches to water management is taking time to take root. There are identifiable shifts of perception, especially amongst scientists and officials in the Jordan catchment countries. As will be shown later Israel's scientists and officials have been arguing for over a decade for the adoption of sound economic principles with respect to water use (Sofer, 1992; Fishelson, 1992). In Jordan there has been a consistent minority voice arguing for a reappraisal of water allocation priorities (Salameh and Bannayan, 1992) and in the recent past the writing of Palestinian scientists has included references to the value of water and the need to take its value into account when managing it (Haddad and Mizyed, 1995). It is clear that the users of water in arid countries and the governments with responsibility for overall water security are beginning to adopt policies which lead to reductions in water use. The model suggested by Karshenas (Karshenas, 1994) is useful and has been shown to make an explanatory and predictive contribution (Allan and Karshenas, 1995; see Figure 1 in that study). By addressing the progressive and dynamic nature of economic development this model captures some of the real choices faced by those involved in economic development. Environmental capital, such as water, plays a role in such development. Karshenas suggests that there is generally an early phase of natural capital degradation which is followed, after an economy has diversified, by a phase in which a political economy can choose to reconstruct its environmental capital. In the case of the countries of the Jordan catchment, which endure serious water deficits, the analysis of the relationship between economic development and the use of water leads to the conclusion that a high policy priority must be the diversification of the economies, in other words the creation of new livelihoods which use water to greater economic effect. The successful implementation of such policies will stabilize the internal economy and society and will simultaneously enable the purchase of 'virtual water' on world markets in the form of food products.

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The purpose of this chapter will be to identify the important participants in the development of water policy in the Jordan catchment countries and to present an initial attempt to identify the places and institutions where new approaches to water management are being adopted with a view to predicting how innovations in the approach to water allocation and management will be shaped. The analysis will also be useful in the identification of measures that will directly and indirectly contribute to the creation of a political economy friendly to scarce environmental capital such a water, namely a diversified, industrialized and internationally integrated economy in which water policies such as those of demand management could be introduced.

Water allocation and management in the Jordan catchment countries: stakeholders and their interests

Water in the Middle East: past and future water development options With the exception of Turkey and the Lebanon the countries of the Middle East have been seriously short of water since the early 1970s. One of the first groups of countries to experience serious national water deficits were the countries of the southern part of the Jordan catchment, Israel, Jordan and the West Bank (and Gaza). Israel's serious water deficit became evident by the mid-1950s (see Figures 1 and 2) despite the extraordinary rate of increase in the development of water following the investments of the 1950s and the rhetoric of the period. The deficit was not recognized by the national leadership or by officials responsible for managing water nor by the water using community. Figure 1 provides for the Middle Eastern countries a perspective on the relationship between water availability and water needs together with levels of past and projected population. The diagram shows that until the 1970s the region's engineers were able to manage water supply to meet the total water needs of the region by means of water storage structures and improved systems of water distribution. These works stored water previously unused in flood flows to the sea and delivered it during seasons of water scarcity to tracts which needed seasonal augmentation of their water or which could be transformed into economically productive areas by the availability of new water. The productive efficiency of water

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was considerably enhanced by these supply management measures as tracts capable of double and treble cropping were expanded by the process somewhat illogically termed land reclamation. The phases of the supply management of water in the major using sector, agriculture, can be identified as follows:

Table 1 Phases of supply management in the Middle East Surface water utilization

Groundwater utilization

3000 BC 1970

Flood recession systems

Shallow wells Qanatlfalaj systems

1900 - Present

Minor storage works First Aswan Dam Deep wells - to 50m

1930 - Present 1960 - 1970

Major storage works - Aswan Dam Major water caniers - Israel

1970 - 2000

Major storage works - Turkey Major water caniers - Syria & Turkey

Very deep wells -