Singapore Population in Transition [Reprint 2016 ed.] 9781512807783

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SINGAPORE Population in Transition

SINGAPORE Population in Transition SAW SWEE-HOCK

UNIVERSITY

OF

PENNSYLVANIA Philadelphia

PRESS

Copyright © 1970 by the Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania Library of Congress Catalog Card N u m b e r : 6 9 - 1 7 7 4 9

ISBN: 0-8122-7588-8 Printed in the United States of America

To Siok-Hwa, Seang-Mei and Seang-Pin

PREFACE

My interest in the population of Singapore was first stimulated in 1957 when I was a statistician in charge of demographic statistics in the Singapore Government Department of Statistics. This book was finally completed during a seven-month study leave that I spent at the London School of Economics and Political Science from October 1966 to April 1967. I am indebted to many persons for encouragement and assistance in the preparation and production of the book. In particular I would like to mention Dr. You Poh Seng of the University of Singapore, Mr. P. Arumainathan of the Singapore Department of Statistics, Dr. Maggie Lim of the Singapore Family Planning Association, the Singapore Family Planning and Population Board, Dr. Gavin Jones of the Population Council Inc., Professor Vincent H. Whitney of the University of Pennsylvania, Professor J. J. Spengler of Duke University, and Professor Ungku A. Aziz of the University of Malaya. I am also thankful to Professor Hamzah Sendut of the University of Malaya for allowing me to reproduce his population density map of Singapore. I am extremely grateful to Professor D. V. Glass of the London School of Economics and Political Science for generously commenting on the manuscript. My thanks go to John Bernheim of the University of Pennsylvania Press for his speed and meticulous care in handling the technical problems of publication. Finally, I would like to place on record the great debt that I owe to my wife, Dr. Cheng Siok-Hwa, for her encouragement, assistance and forebearance. University of Malaya Kuala Lumpur April 1967

SAW S W E E - H O C K

CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE

BACKGROUND

1

I.

Geography

1

II.

Economy

III.

History

CHAPTER T W O

. . .

5

DATA

11

I.

Population Censuses

11

II.

Vital S t a t i s t i c s

15

III.

M a r r i a g e and D i v o r c e Statistics

18

IV.

M i g r a t i o n Statistics

19

CHAPTER THREE

DEMOGRAPHIC

3 .

POPULATION G R O W T H AND D I S T R I B U T I O N

22

I.

S u r v e y of P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h , 1 8 1 9 - 1 9 6 5

22

II.

Population Distribution

31

CHAPTER FOUR

MIGRATION

36

Chinese Migration

37

II.

Indian Migration

45

III.

Malay Migration

53

I.

CHAPTER FIVE

CHANGING POPULATION

STRUCTURE

56

I.

Race Composition

II.

Sex C o m p o s i t i o n

58

III.

Age Structure

62

CHAPTER s i x

56

F E R T I L I T Y T R E N D S AND D I F F E R E N T I A L S

70

I.

C h a n g e s in B i r t h R a t e s , 1 8 7 8 - 1 9 6 5

70

II.

C h a n g e s in P o s t w a r F e r t i l i t y

73

III.

Fertility Differentials

82

X CHAPTER SEVEN

I. II. III. CHAPTER EIGHT

I. II. III. IV. V. CHAPTER NINE

I. II. III. IV. CHAPTER TEN

I. II. III. CHAPTER ELEVEN

MORTALITY T R E N D S AND D I F F E R E N T I A L S

General Survey of Mortality Trends, 1878-1965 Postwar Mortality Trends Mortality Differentials

87

87 92 101

I.ABOR FORCE

109

Concepts and Definitions Economic Activity Status of Population Demographic Aspects of Working Population Industrial Structure Occupational Patterns

109 112 116 126 131

M A L E WORKING LLFE PATTERNS

137

Length of Working Life Productive and Dependent Man-Years Estimated Losses from Male Working Population Race Comparison of Male Working Life

137 141 143 146

F A M I L Y PLANNING AND POPULATION CONTROL

150

Work of Family Planning Association Government Population Policy and Program Evaluation of Program

150 156 158

T R E N D S AND PROSPECTS

161

I. II.

Future Population Trends Future Labor Force

161 168

III.

Prospects

169

APPENDIX ONE

ABRIDGED LLFE TABLES

171

APPENDIX TWO

ABRIDGED WORKING L I F E T A B L E S

194

POPULATION PROJECTION, 1 9 6 7 - 1 9 8 7

203

^APPENDIX THREE BIBLIOGRAPHY

215

INDEX

221

LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1 Population G r o w t h , 1 8 2 4 - 1 9 6 5 3.2 C o m p o n e n t s of Population G r o w t h , 1 8 8 1 - 1 9 6 5 3.3 A n n u a l Rates of Population G r o w t h f o r T h r e e M a i n Races, 1824-1965 3.4 C o m p o n e n t s of Population G r o w t h for T h r e e Main Races, 1901-1965 3.5 Per cent Distribution of Population by Administrative District and Race, 1957 3.6 Population Density by District, 1957 4.1 A n n u a l Chinese I m m i g r a n t s and Emigrants, 1 8 8 1 - 1 9 6 2 4.2 A n n u a l Indian I m m i g r a n t s and Emigrants, 1 8 8 0 - 1 9 6 2 4.3 A n n u a l Malay Arrivals and D e p a r t u r e s to the N e t h e r l a n d s East Indies, 1 9 2 5 - 1 9 4 0 5.1 Distribution of Population by Race, 1 8 2 4 - 1 9 6 5 5.2 Distribution of Population by Sex, 1 8 2 4 - 1 9 6 5 5.3 Sex Ratio of T h r e e M a i n Races, 1 8 2 4 - 1 9 6 5 5.4 Sex Ratio by Broad Age G r o u p , 1 8 7 1 - 1 9 6 2 5.5 Distribution of Population by Broad A g e G r o u p , 1 8 7 1 - 1 9 6 2 5.6 Per cent Distribution of Population by B r o a d Age G r o u p for T h r e e M a i n Races, 1 9 5 1 - 1 9 6 2 5.7 Per cent Distribution of Population by Broad Age G r o u p in Selected Countries 6.1 A n n u a l Average Births a n d C r u d e Birth Rates, 1 8 7 8 - 1 9 6 5 6.2 C r u d e Birth Rates f o r T h r e e M a i n Races, 1 8 8 6 - 1 9 6 5 6.3 Fertility Indices, 1 9 4 7 - 1 9 6 5 6.4 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, 1 9 4 7 - 1 9 6 5 6.5 Fertility Indices for T h r e e M a i n Races, 1 9 4 7 - 1 9 6 5 6.6 M u s l i m Marriages and Divorces, 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 6 5 6.7 Gross Reproduction Rates for T h r e e Main Races, 1 9 5 7 - 1 9 6 5 6.8 Age-Specific Fertility Rates for T h r e e M a i n Races, 1 9 4 7 - 1 9 6 5 6.9 Age-Specific Fertility Rates for T h r e e M a i n Races, 1965 6.10 Age-Specific Fertility Rate of Selected Countries, 1962

Page 25 26

.

27 28 31 32 43 52 55 57 59 60 61 64 65

.

68 71 72 74 76 79 80 81 83 84 86

xii Table 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 7.11 7.12 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.10 8.11 8.12 8.13 8.14 9.1 9.2

Annual Average Deaths and Crude Death Rates, 1 8 7 8 - 1 9 6 5 Principal Causes of Death, 1 9 4 1 - 1 9 4 6 Crude Death Rates for Three Main Races, 1 8 8 6 - 1 9 6 5 Some Mortality Rates for Three Main Races, 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 6 5 Age-Specific Death Rates, 1 9 4 6 - 4 8 , 1 9 5 6 - 5 8 and 1961-63 Age-Specific Death Rates for Three Main Races, 1946—48 and 1 9 6 1 - 6 3 Principal Causes of Death, 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 3 Some Mortality Rates for Three Main Races, 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 6 4 Age-Specific Death Rates for Three Main Races, 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 Selected Causes of Death for Three Main Races, 1963 Expectation of Life at Selected Ages for Three Main Races, 1961-1963 Infant Mortality Rates and Expectation of Life at Birth for Selected Countries Distribution of Population Aged 10 and Over by Economic Activity Status and Sex, 1957 Per cent Distribution of Economically Active Population by Categories of Employment, Race and Sex, 1957 Per cent Distribution of Economically Active Population by Marital Status, Race and Sex, 1957 Literacy Rate of Economically Active Population by Race and Sex, 1957 Crude and Standardized Economic Activity Rates by Race, 1921-1957 Crude and Standardized Economic Activity Rates by Sex and Race, 1957 Age-Specific Economic Activity Rates by Sex, 1957 Age-Specific Economic Activity Rates by Race and Sex, 1957 Distribution of Labor Force by Three Main Industrial Groups, 1921-1957 Per cent Distribution of Labor Force by Three Main Industrial Groups for Selected Countries Per cent Distribution of Labor Force by Industry, Race and Sex, 1957 Per cent Distribution of Labor Force by Occupation, Race and Sex, 1957 Per cent Distribution of Labor Force Aged 10-15 by Occupation and Sex, 1957 Per cent Distribution of Labor Force by Occupational Status and Occupation, 1957 Male Life Expectancies at Selected Ages, 1957 Loss Rates From Working Population by Age, 1957

Page 88 90 91 92 94 97 99 102 103 105 106 108 113 114 117 118 120 121 122 124 128 129 130 132 134 135 139 140

xiii Table 9.3 Elements o f Total Male Generation Life 9.4 Male Working Population and Its Estimated Losses by Age Group, 1957 Summary of Estimated Losses from Male Working Population for 9.5 Singapore, Malaya and G r e a t Britian 9.6 Male Working Life and Retirement Life Expectancies by Race and Age, 1957 9.7 Loss Rates from Working Population by Age and Race, 1957 9.8 Elements of Total Male Generation by Race 10.1 Annual Number of Clinics, Patients and Attendance, 1 9 4 9 - 1 9 6 6 10.2 Distribution of Old Patients Attending in 1963 by Y e a r o f First Appearance 10.3 Per Cent Distribution of New Patients by Source of Referral, 1 9 5 9 1965 10.4 Per Cent Distribution of New Patients by Method Chosen, 1959-1960 10.5 Percentage of Patients to Married W o m e n , 1 9 5 7 - 1 9 6 7 11.1 Projected Population Growth, 1 9 6 2 - 1 9 8 7 11.2 Projected Population Growth Rates for Three Main Races, 1962-1987 11.3 Per cent Distribution of Projected Population by R a c e , 1962-1987 11.4 Per cent Distribution of Projected Population by Broad Age Group, 1 9 6 2 - 1 9 8 7 . 11.5 Projected Labor F o r c e , 1 9 6 2 - 1 9 8 7

Page 143 144 145 146 148 149 153 154 155 156 160 162 163 164 166 168

APPENDIX TABLES 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1-11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15

Adjusted Adjusted Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged Abridged

Age-Specific Death Rates by R a c e and Sex, 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 8 Age-Specific Death Rates by R a c e and Sex, 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 Life Table for All Races Males, 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 8 Life Table for All Races Females, 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 8 Life Table for Chinese Males, 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 8 Life Table for Chinese Females, 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 8 Life Table for Malay Males, 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 8 Life Table for Malay Females, 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 8 Life Table for Indian Males, 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 8 Life Table for Indian Females, 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 8 Life Table for All R a c e s Males, 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 Life Table for All Races Females, 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 Life Table for Chinese Males, 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 Life Table for Chinese Females, 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 Life Table for Malay Males, 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3

176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190

xiv Table 1.16 1.17 1.18 II. 1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 III. 1 111.2 111.3 111.4 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.8 111.9

Abridged Life Table for Malay Females, 1961-1963 Abridged Life Table for Indian Males, 1961-1963 Abridged Life Table for Indian Females, 1961-1963 Proportion of Working Population to Total Population by Age G r o u p and Race, 1957 Abridged Working Life Table for All Races Males, 1957 Abridged Working Life Table for Chinese Males, 1957 Abridged Working Life Table for Malay Males, 1957 Abridged Working Life Table for Indian Males, 1957 Gross Reproduction Rates Implied in Three Projections Population Projections for All Races Males, 1967-1987 Population Projections for All Races Females, 1967-1987 Population Projections for Chinese Males, 1967-1987 Population Projections for Chinese Females, 1967-1987 Population Projections for Malay Males, 1967-1987 Population Projections for Malay Females, 1967-1987 Population Projections for Indian Males, 1967-1987 Population Projections for Indian Females, 1967-1987

P°Se 191 192 193 196 199 200 201 202 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214

LIST OF CHARTS 4.1 4.2 5.1 8.1 8.2 11.1

Annual Chinese Immigrants and Emigrants, 1881-1941 Annual Indian Immigrants and Emigrants, 1880-1941 Age Pyramids, 1962 Age-Specific Economic Activity Rates by Sex, 1957 Age-Specific Economic Activity Rates by Race and Sex, 1957 Projected Age Pyramids, 1987

44 53 66 123 125 167

MAP Population Density of Singapore, 1957

34

SINGAPORE Population in Transition

1 BACKGROUND

I. Geography The Republic of Singapore comprises the main island of Singapore itself and numerous small islets within its territorial waters and jurisdiction. It has a total area of 224.5 square miles and is situated at the southern extremity of the Malay Peninsula, at longitude 103° 50' East and latitude 1° 17' North, about 80 miles north of the equator. T o the north lie the Straits of Johore spanned by the three-quarter mile rail-and-road causeway which links Singapore with the mainland of Malaya. Across the Straits of Malacca to the west lies the elongated island of Sumatra, and across the South China Sea to the east is the large island of Borneo. In its wider context, Singapore occupies an important position on the principal sea, air and trade routes between the West and the Far East. The main island is diamond-shaped and covers approximately two hundred ten square miles with a maximum length of twenty-seven miles from east to west and a maximum width of fourteen miles from north to south. Around it are forty or so small islets with a total area of fifteen square miles; the largest is Pulau Tekong in the east with a land surface of close to seven square miles. In the south are the small islands of Pulau Brani with the principal tin smelting centre, Blakang Mati (formerly a fortress guarding the sea approach to Singapore) and St. John's Island which is used as a quarantine station, a civil detention site and an opium treatment centre. Among the more important islands in the southwest are Pulau Bukom and Pulau Samboe, both sites of oil refineries, storage tanks and bunkering installations. T h e whole country is of very low elevation and generally undulating with low hills. T h e highest of these attains no more than 581 feet and is situated in the Bukit Timah area. There are many small rivers, the largest, Sungei Seletar, running nine miles f r o m its source through Seletar Reservoir to the sea in the Johore Straits. However, a better well-known river is the Singapore which forms a busy waterway for small boats at the very centre of

2 the town. The core of the main island is crystalline rocks, while coral reefs border the southwest shores and shale and sandstone abound in the west. The lowland forest that used to cover the island in the early days has retreated with the advance of roads, buildings and cultivated vegetation. Only a small area of perhaps fifteen square miles, known as the Bukit Timah Natural Reserve, is still original forest with the trees, creepers and thick shrubs typical of rain forests. The formerly extensive mangrove forests in the lower regions have also been greatly reduced, and instead one finds rubber and coconut trees, farms and orchards. About one-quarter of the total land area of the country is under cultivation. Singapore has an equatorial climate with uniform and high temperatures throughout the year, high humidity and a fairly abundant rainfall. The average maximum temperature for the whole year approaches 88°F and the average minimum 73°F. For any day the maximum may top 93°F, and the minimum may dip down to 68°F. The humidity is generally high, about 70 per cent, and the days may be oppressive though not as uncomfortable as in certain temperate regions in summer. Owing to its proximity to the sea the nights in most places are invariably breezy and somewhat cool. Rainfall is abundant throughout the year, the annual figure lying between 70 and 94 inches. There is an absence of marked seasonal changes, though December is often the wettest month and one accompanied by floods in the low-lying localities. The wind pattern is greatly influenced by the monsoon; from mid-October to the end of April the winds come from the north and northeast and from mid-May to the end of September southeast winds prevail in general. The whole country is divided into the following six administrative areas as defined in the Local Government Ordinance, 1957. Name of Area City Katong District Serangoon District Bukit Panjang District Jurong District Southern Islands

Square

Miles

37.6 40.4 47.3 35.6 60.1 3.5

It is a common practice to use the term "City area" to refer to the administrative area of the City of Singapore, and "rural area" for the remaining five administrative areas taken together although these areas are not strictly or entirely rural in character. For such a small and well-developed country as

3 Singapore, the division between urban and rural is quite meaningless and tends to mislead.

II. Economy By Asian standards the economy of Singapore is very advanced in terms of the structure of the economic system and the level of per capita income. Transport, communications, power and other basic facilities are well developed; standards of public administration are high and efficient; and social institutions and services are modern and adequate. Singapore's estimated per capita income of about $1,600 for 1965 ranks near the top among Asian countries. Achievement of such high standards has been made possible by a combination of several factors—a favourable ratio of population to resources in the early days, a good natural harbour coupled with excellent port facilities, a free trade policy, a strategic geographical position, and low-cost ancillary services such as shipping, banking, finance and insurance. Most important of all is the existence of a skilful and enterprising cosmopolitan community of merchants who have built up the entrepot trade upon which the prosperity of the country depends. By comparison with Malaya, the primary industries occupy a very minor position in the economy of Singapore, providing employment to only 7 per cent of the total labor force in 1957. T h e corresponding figure for Malaya amounted to 62 per cent. Agriculture is confined to small-scale rubber and coconut cultivation, poultry and pig rearing, and vegetable and mixed farming. T h e other primary industries of some significance are fishing and granite quarrying. A large share of the country's food requirements are imported from overseas countries. T h e dominant position of the entrepot trade is partly underlined by the fact that in 1957 the tertiary sector absorbed no less than 72 per cent of the labor force, with commerce alone being able to employ 26 per cent. 1 Essentially this trade consists of an inflow of raw materials from Malaysia and other neighbouring countries and their re-export after being processed, and the import of manufactured goods and foodstuffs for distribution to these countries. Broadly speaking, three main groups of commodities are involved in this trade. In the first place, there is the primary produce of this area such as rubber, copra, coconut oil, palm oil, coffee, pepper, rattan

1

T h e tertiary sector is defined to include industries c o v e r i n g electricity, gas, w a t e r

and sanitary services, c o m m e r c e , transport, storage and communication, and services. T h e reader is referred to T a b l e s 8.9, 8.10 and 8.11 f o r full presentation of the statistics.

4 and timber, which are sorted, graded and repacked for export to the West. T h e second group embraces manufactured goods, foodstuffs and machinery of all kinds which are imported from America, Europe and Japan for reexport to the neighbouring countries. Finally, there is the trade in petroleum and its products, which have become increasingly important as Singapore assumes the role of a major storage and distributing centre for these commodities from its own refineries and from those of oil-producing countries. The entrepôt trade suffered a severe setback in 1 9 6 4 when Indonesian confrontation of Malaysia broke out. It was estimated that the loss in trade to Singapore amounted to some $ 2 0 0 million in that year, and as a result the national income for 1 9 6 4 indicated an almost negligible increase over that in the previous year. When confrontation was officially terminated in 1 9 6 6 , normal trading relations were restored but the pick-up was rather slow on account of shortage of finance and credit facilities in Indonesia where the economy is undergoing a gradual process of rehabilitation and adjustment. Apart from this recent setback, the postwar growth of nationalist trade policies in nearly all the neighbouring countries, not excluding Malaysia, has led to an increasing tendency for goods to bypass Singapore. It is therefore inevitable that the entrepôt trade should play a lessening role in the nation's economy in the years to come. As a result of the wide scope for good profits which existed in the entrepôt trade, development of the other sectors of the economy was neglected. Events in the last decade or so have focused considerable attention on the need to diversify the economy by means of industrialization in order to offset the declining entrepôt trade and to provide employment, as well as to raise the standard of living of a rapidly growing population. T h e manufacturing sector, though not as large as it ought to be, is quite advanced and is surpassed in Asia only by Japan, Israel, and Hong Kong. According to the 1957 Census the secondary sector as a whole accounted for 21 per cent of the total labor force, and of this the share of the manufacturing industries was 16 per cent. B y tradition manufacturing has been restricted to areas associated with primary producing and trading activities such as the processing of rubber, tin and copra, and the manufacture of rubber goods, foodstuffs and drinks. The last couple of years have witnessed the establishment of a new range of industries belonging to the fairly heavy type; these are the steel mills, oil refineries, dry docks and heavy engineering works. New and medium scale industries over a wide front were also set up to produce plywood, cables, steelpipes, electrical appliances, textiles and a host of other products. Under its First Four-Year Plan about $ 5 0 milion was ear-

5 marked for the building of industrial estates, equipped with essential services such as water, sewerage, electricity, roads and communication systems. In the southwest of the main island was established the Jurong Industrial Estate, the largest and most modern industrial complex in this part of Asia. In the Second Plan, which is not yet published, continued emphasis is being placed on industrialization, and it is envisaged that the shift from the traditional entrepot trade to manufacturing activities will be accelerated.

III. History The origins of Tumasik or Old Singapore remain shrouded in antiquity and the date of the founding of the first settlement is not known. According to the Sejarah Melayu (Malay annals) an Indian Prince, Sang Nila U t a m a or Sri Tri Buana, who was a ruler of Palembang, sailed to Tumasik. On landing Sang Nila U t a m a and his party saw a strange beast which they took to be a lion. This was considered a good omen and the new settlement was given the name of "Singapura" (Lion C i t y ) . N o date is given in the Sejarah Melayu but there is evidence to suggest that the founding of Singapore dates back to the seventh century. T h e early history of Tumasik that has survived is little more than a recital of piracy, invasion and siege. As a part of the Sri Vijaya Empire it was attacked by invaders like the Chola king, Rajindrachola I, who devastated the settlement in 1025. In the fourteenth century it became a part of the Majapahit Empire and was subjected to frequent attacks and periods of control by Siam which was struggling with Majapahit for domination over the Malay Peninsula. In 1402 a Siamese force was sent against Parameswara, a Palembang prince who had killed the pro-Siamese ruler of Tumasik and taken his place. Parameswara fled to the M u a r River and subsequently founded Malacca. Malacca rose rapidly as a trading centre due to its strategic position in the Straits of Malacca, well-sheltered from both monsoons and well-situated as a midway calling station for trading expeditions between India and China as well as an entrepot port for the trade of the East Indian Archipelago. When the Portuguese arrived on the scene Malacca was a flourishing port and capital of the Malacca Sultanate, while Singapore remained largely a mangrove swamp inhabited by fishermen and pirates. In 1511 Malacca fell to the Portuguese who in turn surrendered Malacca to the Dutch in 1641. The seventeenth to the nineteenth century saw intermittent conflict and rivalry between the Dutch and the English for commercial and political ascendancy in the area of the East Indies and the Malay Peninsula. In the

6 latter area the British acquired Penang in 1786. This was followed by the conquest of Java in 1811 and of all the Dutch possessions in the East Indies as part of the Napoleonic Wars. But by the London Convention of 1814 all these Dutch establishments were returned sis part of a policy of strengthening Holland against France. The Dutch set about reoccupying their possessions so rapidly and energetically that the British feared that their trade in the Archipelago and with China might be threatened. Penang could control the northern approach to the Straits of Malacca but further along the Straits the Dutch were at Malacca and effective Dutch control could be exercised over the Sunda Straits from Batavia. The only other British port in the area, Bencoolen, in Sumatra, was too far away to be of much use. The British felt therefore that a base at the southern end of the Malacca Straits was essential to their interests. The British Governor of Bencoolen, Thomas Stamford Raffles, tried to secure control of the Sunda Straits by establishing a British post, first at Semangka Bay and later at Callambyan Bay, Palembang and Padang but these attempts were not successful. His activities annoyed the Dutch who protested. Raffles then decided to try Rhio and in September, 1818, he left for Calcutta to discuss with the Marquis of Hastings, the Governor-General of India, the possibility of a British settlement at Rhio. Hastings reprimanded him for his Sumatran adventures but was agreeable to the Rhio project. Earlier Major William Farquhar had entered into a preliminary treaty with Rhio, and Raffles needed only to secure the ruler's permission to establish a station there. In December Raffles left Calcutta and arrived at Penang where he was informed that Rhio had been seized by the Dutch in November, 1818. Meanwhile Hastings decided to cancel his instructions but he was too late as Raffles and Farquhar had left for the Carimon Islands. Finding these islands unsuitable, Raffles and Farquhar proceeded to the Straits of Singapore and on January 29, 1819, landed at Singapore. The next day a treaty with Temenggong Abdul Rahman, the ruler of the small Malay community there, was concluded. This was followed by another treaty with the Temenggong and Sultan Hussein 1 by which the British 1 Sultan Hussein or T u n k u L o n g was the eldest son and destined successor of Sultan Mahmud o f J o h o r e but when the Sultan died in 1812 T u n k u Long was away at Pahang. T h e Bugis leader R a j a J a ' a f a r installed T u n k u Long's younger half-brother Abdul R a h m a n as Sultan while he himself took the title o f " R a j a M u d a " ( C r o w n Prince) and became the effective ruler of J o h o r e . Tunku L o n g retired to the island o f Bulang. Raffles decided to recognise Tunku L o n g as Sultan of J o h o r e . Messengers were sent to Bulang and soon T u n k u L o n g arrived in Singapore where he was named and greeted as Sultan Hussein in an elaborate installation ceremony.

secured the right to establish a station on the island in return for an annual payment of 5,000 Spanish dollars to the Sultan and 3,000 Spanish dollars to the Temenggong. The occupation of Singapore irritated not only the Dutch but also Hastings and Colonel Bannerman, the Governor of Penang, who did not wish to see a rival to Penang. A "paper war" between London, the Hague, Batavia, Penang, Malacca, Bancoolen and Calcutta followed. In the meantime Singapore grew and flourished. In February, 1819 there were a few Chinese gambier planters on the island and also some hundred and twenty Malay followers of the Temenggong. By June, 1819 it was claimed that the influx of Chinese, Bugis and Malays had raised the population to 5,000 and the next year this figure was doubled. By 1820 the revenue was enough to cover the costs of administration and by 1822 Singapore's trade exceeded that of Penang. By then the East India Company, which kept its "moral sense in its pocket," 2 no longer thought of giving up the island. In June, 1823, a third agreement was signed with Sultan Hussein and the Temenggong whereby in return for further payments the company was given complete control over the trade of Singapore. A fourth and final agreement was concluded with the Sultan and the Temenggong in August 1824 by which they alienated the island completely in return for further payments and pensions and became private residents. In March, 1824, the Anglo-Dutch Treaty demarcated the spheres of influence of the two powers and by this treaty all Dutch claims to the island were given up for good. The first forty years of the new British settlement saw a rapid increase in trade, a trade which was essentially entrepot. Singapore served as the centre for the exchange of the products of Europe, India, China, the Malay Archipelago and the neighboring countries of Southeast Asia. Singapore started off as a Residency controlled from Bencoolen. In 1824 control was direct from Calcutta. Two years later Malacca and Singapore became dependencies of the Residency of Penang with the Governor of Penang governing all three settlements. Penang became a Residency in 1830 and the three settlements came under the direct jurisdiction of Calcutta. In 1832 it was decided to appoint a Governor for these settlements and because of its increasing importance Singapore became the centre of government. It was from about this time that the term "Straits Settlements" came into wide use. The Straits Settlements remained under the control of Calcutta until 1867 when they were transferred to the Colonial Office in

2

R. O. Winstedt, A History of Malaya (Singapore: Maricans & Sons, 1962), p. 199.

8 London, a change due mainly to the dissatisfaction and complaints of Straits merchants regarding the indifference and inefficiency of the Indian administration. With increasing British penetration into the Malay states from the 1870's onwards, Singapore came to serve as a collecting and distributing centre not only for goods but also for people. Chinese and Indian migrants streamed into the mainland through the Straits Settlements while many came to work and live in Singapore. Singapore became the commercial capital of the Nanyang Chinese, and while the total population increased the Chinese came to form the major segment of the population. The opening of the Suez Canal, the coming of the steamship, the setting up of the international telegraph, and the expansion of the tin and rubber industries all contributed to the growth and development of Singapore. Until the Second World War Singapore was governed like any other British colony—by a Governor appointed by the Colonial Office and assisted by an Executive Council with an official majority and a Legislative Council which from 1924 had an equal number of official and unofficial members. The colonial government was swept away on February 12, 1942. Singapore fell to the Japanese and remained under Japanese occupation until September 5, 1945, when the Southeast Asia Command under Lord Louis Mountbatten recovered Singapore after the Japanese defeat in Burma and the surrender of the Japanese government following the bombing of Hiroshima. Until March 31, 1946, the British Military Administration was in control. In January, 1946, a White Paper outlined a scheme for a Malayan Union by which Singapore with the Cocos-Keeling Islands and Christmas Island would become a separate Colony but with the probability of a future merger with mainland Malaya. On April 1, 1946, civil government was restored. Penang and Malacca were merged with the nine Malay States in the Malayan Union. Due to opposition from the Malays the Malayan Union was scrapped and a new Federation was instituted. Singapore was established as a separate Crown Colony by March 27, 1946, with a provisional advisory council which was to establish an Executive and a Legislative Council as soon as possible. This was done in 1948 and the Legislative Council was made up of ten government officials, four nominated unofficial members, and nine elected members. In that year also the Singapore government followed the example of the Federation in declaring a state of emergency and adopting measures to contain the communist threat. In 1954 a commission was set up to make recommendations for a new

9 constitution. Its chairman was Sir George Rendel who submitted a report which formed the basis for a new constitution. T h e Legislative Council was transformed into an Assembly with a Speaker, 3 ex-officio members, 4 nominated unofficial and 25 elected members. T h e Executive Council became a Council of Ministers presided over by the Governor and responsible to the Assembly. In the April, 1 9 5 5 , elections the Labor Front led by David Marshall won the largest number of seats and it formed a government together with the three members of the Alliance consisting of the United Malays National Organization, the Malayan Chinese Association and the Singapore Malay Union. T h e new Assembly decided on April 5 , 1956, to ask for an immediate advance to self-government and an all-party delegation went to London to hold talks on further constitutional development. Following the failure to reach agreement Marshall resigned and Lim Yew Hock was sworn in as Chief Minister. In March 1 9 5 7 another all-party delegation went to London for talks and agreement was reached with the Colonial Office that in 1 9 5 8 - 5 9 Singapore would attain full internal self-government with a completely elected Legislative Assembly of 51 members and a Cabinet of Ministers responsible to it. Britain would retain control over external affairs (not including foreign trade and cultural relations) and defense, while internal security would be in the hands of a Security Council consisting of three members from Singapore, three from Britain and one from the Federation of Malaya. On May 30, 1 9 5 9 the People's Action Party won 43 of the 51 seats and formed the new government with Lee Kuan Y e w as Prime Minister of the new state. Towards the end of the year Yusof bin Ishak was installed as the first Yang di-Pertuan Negara. The formation of Malaysia was first publicly enunciated by the Prime Minister of the Federation of Malaya, Tengku Abdul Rahman, on May 2 7 , 1961 when he proposed the building of a new state of Malaysia out of the Federation of Malaya, Singapore, Sarawak, North Borneo (now Sabah) and Brunei. This idea was taken up by the P A P Singapore government and was supported by the British government, but the opposition group within the P A P led by Lim Chin Siong came out violently against the merger of Singapore with the Federation of Malaya. A referendum was held and the results showed that the Singapore electorate generally endorsed the government line. On January 20, 1 9 6 3 , the Indonesian Foreign Minister, Dr. Subandrio, publicly proclaimed the launching of the policy of "confrontation" against Malaysia. Despite this open hostility the Malaysia project went ahead and

10 on July 9, 1963, the leaders of all the proposed states in the Federation of Malaysia, except Brunei, signed the Malaysia Agreement in London to establish the new state. Lee Kuan Yew declared de facto independence for Singapore on August 31 and in the next month the PAP was returned to power in a general election. But on August 9, 1965, Singapore seceded from Malaysia and became an independent and sovereign state within the Commonwealth.

2 DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

I. Population Censuses The records of Singapore abound in population censuses which have been quoted by demographers, historians and other writers of the region from time to time. The census records may be broadly divided into two periods, namely 1824—1870 and 1871-1957. During the former period some censuses were undertaken, mainly by the police, at fairly regular and short intervals. In the latter period proper and systematic censuses were conducted by trained enumerators at regular but longer intervals. By and large the census records produced in the second period are more comprehensive and more accurate than those compiled in the earlier period. The original published results of the censuses completed during 1871-1957 are still available, but those of the earlier period are no longer available and the figures are only to be derived from secondary sources. 1824-1870

Period

The enumeration of the population in Singapore dates as far back as January, 1824, when the first census of the whole country was carried out. Except for the figures subsequently quoted by writers, there is no known record of this census nor of those which followed; at first yearly and later at longer intervals. T. J. Newbold, writing about the population in 1939, was able to collect the figures of eleven censuses conducted annually between 1824 and 1836 except in 1831 and 1835 when no census appears to have been taken. 1 There is reason to believe that these figures which are merely classified by sex and race are seriously defective. H. Marriott was of the opinion that the "figures for these early censuses cannot, however, be regarded as very accurate. In 1833 . . . they were collected by the two constables who were attached to the Settlement and who had many other 1 T. J. Newbold, Political and Statistical Account of the British Settlements Straits of Malacca (London: John Murray, 1839), I, 279-288.

in the

12 duties to perform. N o fixed principle was adopted with regard to the headings 'Europeans', 'Native Christians' and 'Indo-Britons'. Some enumerating officers appeared to have included as 'Europeans' all who wore European clothes." 2 In the twenty-five years or so between the eleventh census of 1836 and the end of this period only three enumerations were completed. The figures of these censuses of 1840, 1849 and 1860 were collected by T. Braddell in his monograph, Statistics of the British Possessions in the Straits of Malacca, with the data classified by sex and race; : ! these figures were subsequently quoted by Marriott in his study of the peoples of Singapore in 1921. Very little is known of these three censuses, except that according to Marriott the 1860 census was carried out by the police and in his opinion the information collected in this particular census was absolutely unreliable. 4 This seems to be the consensus of opinion of the 1871 Census Committee as may be inferred by the following extract from their report:5 W e are inclined to agree with statement made by Sir Harry Ord in his dispatch to the Secretary of States on the 27th August, 1869, that no great reliance can be placed upon the returns of population stated to have been taken in that year ( 1 8 6 0 ) , so that for any purpose of comparison now, they are of little or no value. There is a remarkable increase in the number of Malays, for which no adequate reason can be offered; the influx to the Settlement of 8,362 since 1860 is scarcely probable, while the Chinese race would appear to have inincreased by only 4 , 5 2 9 in the eleven years, which is still more improbable, when the large increase in Excise farms since 1860 is taken into consideration. These discrepancies would tend greatly to show that the returns of 1860 are altogether unreliable.

From this one may conclude that the census records of 1824-1871 on the whole are not very accurate. Besides, apart f r o m the data classified by sex and race, there is no information such as is normally collected in a popula-

2

H. Marriott, "The Peoples of Singapore," Chap. VII in One Hundred Years of Singapore, ed. Makepeace, Brooke and Braddell (London: John Murray, 1921 ), p. 348. 3 T . Braddell, Statistics of the British Possessions in the Straits of Malacca (Pinang: Pinang Gazette Printing Office, 1861). 4 H. Marriott, op. cit., p. 348. 5 J. F. A. McNair, C. S. Waller, and A. Knight, "Report of the Census Officers for the Straits Settlement of Singapore," 1871 Blue Book of the Straits Settlements (Singapore: Straits Settlements Government Press, 1872), p. 8.

13 tion census of today. Not too much demographic value should therefore be attached to these early returns, though they are of some historical interest. 1871-1957

Period

After the transfer of the Settlement of Singapore from the India Office to the Colonial Office on April 15, 1867, the first proper census as the term is understood today was taken in 1871. It coincided with the decennial censuses undertaken in Great Britain and in her other colonial territories. This census was conducted on April 2, 1871, under the charge of a committee of three census officers and as part of the wider census of the Straits Settlements, which comprised the three Settlements of Singapore, Malacca and Penang. The Report of the Census Officers for the Settlement of Singapore, comprising a brief three-page text and fourteen pages of tables, was submitted by the committee to the Colonial Secretary, Straits Settlements, and published in the 1871 Blue Book. ,; Apart f r o m the basic items on sex, age and race, the tables contain information on houses, occupations and a regional tabulation by simple town-country division. A fairly detailed grouping was employed in the tabulation of age, under 10, 10-14, 1 5 - 1 9 and by denary age group up to 89. The attempt to make an exhaustive tabulation of occupations yielded a virtually useless list of hundreds of occupations which contains numerous inconsistencies and errors. As was to be expected in those days the first island-wide census which made inquiries on age and occupation was greeted with considerable apprehension among the inhabitants who were under the false impression that the census was some kind of a preliminary step to the imposition of capitation tax. At one stage the fear was so strong among the people that they put up placards in the town, urging all residents to resist the enumerators who were mostly civil servants. The lack of co-operation resulting from the hostile attitude of the public had some adverse effects on the coverage and accuracy of the data collected. The officers in charge of the census confessed that they "would not claim for them complete accuracy" but ventured to remark that "they approximate very nearly to the truth." 7 Thereafter n o less than eight censuses were taken regularly every ten years, excepting that for the postwar year of 1947, at first as part of the Straits Settlements and later as part of the census of the whole of Malaya and Singapore. While the titles of the various Reports may be found in the

G

M c N a i r , Waller and Knight, op.

7

Ibid.,

p. 2.

cit.

14 Bibliography at the end of this volume, the dates and geographical coverage of the censuses are given below. Date April 2, 1871 April 3, 1881 April 5, 1891 M a r c h 1, 1901 March 10, 1911 April 24, 1921 April 1, 1931 September 23, 1947 June 17, 1957

Area Covered Straits Settlements Straits Settlements Straits Settlements Straits Settlements Straits Settlements Singapore and Malaya Singapore and Malaya Singapore and Malaya Singapore

The most recent census of Singapore taken in 1957 was a departure from the three previous ones on a pan-Malayan basis, being conducted independently from that of Malaya. However, both censuses were held on the same day and some form of consultation and co-operation was maintained between the two census authorities. In Singapore the detailed planning of the census was entrusted to the ad hoc Standing Technical Committee on Census Matters which met about forty times during the one-and-a-half years or so before the actual enumeration in June 1957. In identifying and classifying the population aged ten and over into economically active and economically inactive persons the newer labor-force approach was used. The information compiled is of higher quality and value than with that produced under the older gainful-worker approach, though many conceptional and practical problems were encountered in the application of the newer approach. 8 Another innovation of no less significance was the new method of collecting Chinese age statistics, the accuracy of which was greatly improved. 9 Finally, there was the introduction of the series of seventeen Preliminary Releases supplying the basic tables in advance of the final report which was eventually published seven years later in 1964 under the title of State of Singapore: Report of the Census of Population 1957.10 Such prolonged delay poses a serious obstacle to demographic research.

8

Saw Swee-Hock and Ronald Ma, "The Economic Characteristics of the Population of Singapore, 1957," The Malayan Economic Review, V, N o . 1, April 1960, pp. 31-51. 9 For an account of the method, see Saw Swee-Hock, "Errors in Chinese Age Statistics," Demography, IV, No. 2, 1967, pp. 859-875. 10 S. C. Chua, Slate of Singapore: Report on the Census of Population 1957 (Singapore: Government Press, 1964).

15 Through the decades the successive censuses have witnessed the gradual broadening of scope with regard to the topics enumerated. The latest position attained in 1957 may be observed from the list of items indicated below. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Sex Age Race and C o m m u n i t y Marital Status Place of Birth Year of First Arrival

7. 8. 9. 10. 11.

Language Industry Occupation Status Household

There was the re-introduction of language (ability to speak) and the addition of place of usual residence. The statistics as to the latter were not released in view of their limited utility since almost every person interviewed resided in Singapore. There was one unfortunate omission in respect of number of children ever born to women which could have been utilized to evaluate the completeness of birth registration in the islands. 11 By and large the tabulation has been more exhaustive than that of any other censuses hitherto undertaken, and more important still, the detailed tabulation sheets, punched cards and the original census schedules are still available for consultation. Thus the tabulation of age data was in very fine groupings, single years up to age 99, which permits the analysis of digital preference among the different segments of the population. II. Vital Statistics

A system of compulsory registration of births and deaths throughout Singapore was first introduced in January, 1872, with the enactment of the Registration of Births and Death Ordinance.12 Under this ordinance the Chief Health Officer was the Registrar-General whose duty was to "compile a summary of the births and deaths of the past year in the prescribed forms" and "at the same time compile a general report on the increase or decrease of the population, and on any special causes appearing to affect the

11 The technique of employing data on the number of children ever born to women to evaluate and rectify under-registration of births is presented in Saw Swee-Hock, "A Note on the Under-Registration of Births in Malaya during the Intercensal Period 1947-1957," Population Studies, XVIII, No. 1, July 1964, pp. 35-52. 12 See Laws of the Straits Settlements, Revised Edition (Singapore: Government Printer, 1936). Chap., 89.

16 same as far as the same can be assumed from the Registrar's returns." It is this statutory requirement that ensures the compilation and publication of the yearly statistics in respect to live-births and deaths. One important shortcoming of the ordinance was its failure to make provision for the registration of still-births. The original ordinance was repealed and re-enacted with considerable changes in the Registration of Births and Deaths Ordinance, 1937, which was brought into force on July 1, 1938. 1:! Among many changes, was one which appointed the Registrar-General of Statistics as the Registrar-General of Births and Deaths. A full-time Registrar was also appointed to administer and take care of the Registry. A more significant change was the "provision for the registration of still-births in order to prevent concealment of abortions and infanticide." 14 The present procedures for the registration of live-births, still-births and deaths and for the publication of these vital events are essentially based on this ordinance, which has been amended from time to time. Those vital events occurring in government and military hospitals 15 are reported and registered in the hospitals concerned, while others are registered at the City Births and Deaths Registration Centre if they occur in the city and at the police stations if they occur in the remote rural areas. In the adjacent small islands where there is no police station, the vital events are reported through the penghulu (headman) direct to the Registry. Two copies of the completed forms are forwarded to the Registry, one copy being kept as the master copy in the Registry and the other copy sent to the Statistics Department for the compilation and publication of statistics on live-births, still-births and deaths. Although the registration of births and deaths was introduced in 1872, it was fifteen years later that the statistics were published in the Annual Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths for the year 1886; figures for the years prior to 1886 were not given. 10 The early annual reports normally consisted of two to three pages of written text and about five to

13

Registration of Births and Deaths Ordinance, 1937, N o . 34 of 1937 (Singapore: Government Printer, 1938). 14 Straits Settlements, Annual Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths for the Year 1938 (Singapore: Government Printer, 1939), p. 1. 15 A very high percentage, about 65 per cent, of all Singapore births occur in Government and Military Hospitals, and almost all of these take place in the Kandang Kerbau Maternity Hospital. 16 Straits Settlements, Annual Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths for the Year 1886 (Singapore: Government Printer, 1887). Over the course of time the title of the Report was amended many times, the current title being Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths, Marriages and Persons.

17 nine tables of statistics. T h e data on births were tabulated according to month, sex, race and registration area, while the data on deaths were classified by month, sex, race, registration area, broad causes of death, and age groups of irregular intervals up to 55 and over. F o r many decades the annual reports appeared in this form, with no major improvements in the compilation and presentation of the birth and death statistics. Most of the improvements were instituted during the post-World W a r I I period. The significant ones are enumerated below together with the year in which the new data became available. 1. Live-births by age of mother ( 1 9 4 3 ) and greater details f o r each of the races ( 1 9 5 2 ) . 2. Live-births and deaths by registration area according to urban and rural division (1952). 3. Causes of death according to the Intermediate List of the 6th Revision of the International List of Diseases and Causes of

Death

(1952). 4. Live-births by date of occurrence (1953). 5. Live-births by hospitalization and attendant at birth ( 1 9 5 4 ) . 6. Causes of death according to the A b b r e v i a t e d

List of

50 Causes

(1954). 7. Live-births by place of usual residence of parents, and deaths by place of usual residence of deceased (1958). 8. Deaths by hospitalization ( 1 9 5 8 ) . 9. Live-births and deaths by place of occurrence (1959). 10. Live-births by type of birth, i.e. single or plural (1962).

From the beginning of 1959 an additional report known as Monthly Demographic Bulletin was issued to make available the latest data on population and vital statistics.17 Though the present statistics based on the Handbook of Vital Statistics Methods18 may be considered as fairly comprehensive and well developed, there are certain data which cannot be compiled from the existing birth and death registration forms. T h e most important information that is yet to be produced is as follows: 1. Live-births by occupation of m o t h e r and by occupation of father. 2. Live-births by birth order, i.e. the number of live-births born to the mother. 3. Deaths b y occupation of deceased.

17 Monthly Demographic Bulletin, No. I, January, 1959 (Singapore: Department of Statistics, 1959). 18 United Nations, Handbook of Vital Statistics Methods, Studies in Methods, Series F, N o . 7 ( N e w Y o r k : United Nations, 1955).

18 III. M a r r i a g e a n d D i v o r c e S t a t i s t i c s

A system of compulsory registration for all marriages solemnized in Singapore was introduced on September 15, 1961, from which date complete coverage of marriage statistics was also made available. Prior to this time, there was only partial registration of marriages and the published statistics were incomplete in coverage. The registered marriages fell under three classes; Muslim marriages, Christian marriages and Civil marriages. Muslim marriages are solemnized and registered under the Muslim Ordinance, 1957 19 which came into force on December 25, 1958, and which replaced the old ordinance of 1880. Marriages must be contracted under the provision of this ordinance if both parties are Muslims. Up to the end of 1960 no comprehensive statistics had been published and only the yearly totals were available, because the marriage forms did not provide space for noting down information on many items such as race, age and previous marital status. Christian marriages were solemnized and registered under the Christian Marriage Ordinance, 1940 20 which came into force on January 1, 1941, and which replaced the previous ordinance of 1899. Similarly, civil marriages were solemnized and registered under the Civil Marriage Ordinance, 1940 21 which came into force on January 1, 1941, and which replaced the previous ordinance of 1899. It is important to note that while marriages of Christians were normally registered under the former ordinance, marriages in accordance with the latter ordinance were optional, and in fact some marriages which were solemnized according to customary rites were never registered at all. Christian and civil marriages are monogamous but Muslim marriages may be polygamous. Statistics on Christian and civil marriages were first compiled and published in 1955 together with the Report on Births and Deaths. 22 The figures were cross-classified by month, race and age of bride and groom in the first instance, and by Christian denomination —for Christian marriages only—and by previous marital status of bride and groom from 1957.

19

Muslim

Ordinance,

1957,

No. 25 of 1957 (Singapore: Government Printer,

1957). 20 Christian Marriage Ordinance, 1940, No. 10 of 1940 (Singapore: Government Printer, 1940). 21 Civil Marriage Ordinance, 1940, N o . 9 of 1940 (Singapore: Government Printer, 1940). 22 Singapore, Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths, Marriages and Persons for 1955 (Singapore: Government Printer, 1958).

19 With the enforcement of the Women's Charter, 1961 on September 15, 1961, all marriages other than Muslim marriages must be registered under this ordinance.*''' This, coupled with the existing compulsory registration of Muslim marriages, means that from that date there is complete registration of all marriages solemnized in Singapore. A development of no less significance is that steps were immediately instituted to compile statistics on these marriages. While figures on Muslim marriages were first published for the year 1961, figures on the other marriages registered under the Women's Charter were separately made available for the period beginning September 15, 1961.24 These two sets of data give us the total marriage figures for Singapore. The statistics were cross-classified by month, race, age and previous marital status of bride and groom. Divorces of Muslim marriages are registered under the Muslim Ordinance 1957 but to date no detailed statistics have been published. Divorces in respect of the former Christian and Civil marriages and the present marriages governed by the Women's Charter are finalized and recorded in court, but again no figures in detail have been compiled. Finally, there are the unrecorded divorces of the previously unregistered marriages conducted according to customary rites; not infrequently divorce is by mutual consent supported at times by an announcement in the newspapers. IV. Migration Statistics Although migration was a dominant factor in population growth during the years up to the Second World War, a proper system of recording, compiling and publishing comprehensive statistics of migration was never established. The early migration statistics were compiled from the records of Chinese and Indian sea passengers embarking and disembarking at the port. The figures classified by sex and by adults and children—below age 12 —for Chinese and Indians only were published yearly in the Report on the Chinese Protectorate25 by the Chinese Protector and in the Report on

23

Women's

Charter,

1961,

No.

18 of

1961

(Singapore: Government

Printer,

1961. 24 Singapore, Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths, Marriages and Persons for 1961 (Singapore: Government Printing Office, 1963). 25 Straits Settlements, Report on the Chinese Protectorate, 1 8 8 1 - 1 9 3 2 (Singapore: Straits Settlements Government Press). With the closing down of the Chinese Protectorate, the figures for the years 1 9 3 3 - 1 9 3 8 were published in the Report on the Immigration Department.

20 Indian Immigration26 by the Indian Immigration Agent, both from the year 1881 to 1940. In addition, figures for the different types of immigration, i.e. indentured, ¿a^ga/iy-recruited, assisted, etc., were also made available. Although the figures did not differentiate between permanent residents, visitors, transit passengers and persons proceeding to and from Malaya through Singapore, they are useful for depicting the broad trends and composition of migration among the Chinese and Indians. A less useful source of migration statistics is the records of arrivals and departures by sea, air and land for all types of passengers, made available for the year 1923 onwards. When the net figure is obtained, the arrivals and departures of temporary residents, visitors and transit passengers are cancelled out, and what is left is the net migration of permanent residents. Thus, in some measure these figures may be taken to represent broad migrational trends, and have in fact been so used in the calculation of intercensal and postcensal estimates of Singapore's population. The statistics are tabulated according to race, sex, children under 12 years, and country of embarkation. 27 Lately, the Immigration Department has compiled and published statistics on immigration for the year 1954 and onwards. 28 The total number of arrivals by sea and air is divided into two categories, for residence and for visit—including transit. The former represents the total number of immigrants into Singapore, while the latter depicts the number of visitors, which may be useful for study of the tourist industry. The figures are tabulated according to sex, race, nationality, children below 18 years and type of right of entry. However, without the corresponding information on emigrants, it is not possible to use these data to derive the net migration. In the early postwar years there were considerable movements of people between Singapore and Malaya, and the only source of information on this migration is the identity card records. 29 Statistics of persons exchanging Malayan cards for Singapore cards, and vice versa, give an indica26 Straits Settlements, Report on Indian Immigration, 1881-1911 (Singapore: Straits Settlement Government Press). The figures for the years 1912-1938 were published in the Report of the Labor Department. 21 Singapore, Monthly Digest of Statistics (Singapore: Government Printer). (Where no year is given, the reader is referred to no specific issue, but only to the general title of the publications in which the statistical breakdown can be found.) 28 Singapore, Annual Report oj the Immigration Department, (Singapore: Government Printer). 2 0 Identity cards are issued under the Registration of Persons Regulation, 1955 which replaced the Emergency (Registration) Regulations of 1948.

21 tion of the intensity and composition of this migration. The figures first published in 1955, were tabulated by month only in the first instance, and then further classified by sex and state in 1957 and by race and age group in 1958. :t " Unfortunately these statistics cannot in any way give a complete account of Singapore/Malaya migration because ( a ) they exclude children below 12 years of age who are not required to register for an identity card; ( b ) it is not necessary for migrants to exchange old cards for new ones since a change of address on the old cards will suffice; and (c) some migrants do not take the trouble to exchange their old cards or have the address on these cards altered." Statistics compiled from identity card records should therefore be employed to depict general trends in Singapore/Malaya migration, and have been so utilized in the revision of the 1 9 4 7 - 5 7 intercensal population estimates and in the computation of the postcensal estimates of Singapore.

30

Singapore, Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths, Marriages and Persons jor 1955 and 1956 (Singapore: Government Printer, 1958). 31 Since Singapore separated from Malaysia in August 1965, work-permits for non-citizens were introduced by the Singapore Government. On August 1, 1966, both countries introduced immigration control of persons moving across their borders, thus bringing to an end the free movement of people which had existed for the past 150 years or so.

3 POPULATION GROWTH A N D DISTRIBUTION The demographic history of Singapore dates from ancient times, spanning a period of about one hundred and forty-five years from 1819 to 1965. In studying the growth of the population it is convenient to commence with 1819 when Stamford Raffles first landed on the practically uninhabited island. T o trace back before this date into a period clouded with myths and legends and with no reliable records, would be difficult and would involve treading on unsafe ground. In the main the growth of the population has been essentially the continuous peopling of the country through immigration; the indigenous inhabitants were very few in number and contributed relatively little to this growth. In this book the term Malays is defined to include both the Malays and the Indonesian immigrants, while the term Indians include Pakistanis as well as Indians. I. Survey of Population Growth, 1 8 1 9 - 1 9 6 5

Early

Settlement

It is commonly believed that in 1811 a band of about one hundred Malays from Johore, led by the Temenggong, who was an officer of the Sultan of Johore, migrated southwards and settled on the riverine banks of the Singapore River. 1 At that time, however, the country was already populated by a small group of natives known as the "Orang Laut" or Sea Gypsies who were fishermen and pirates living exclusively in their boats along the small rivers. There is some evidence to show that they were the descendents of an aboriginal tribe called the "Sakais," and subsequently became assimilated with the Malay newcomers, adopting their language, customs and Muslim religion. 2 According to Newbold, when Raffles landed

1

T. J. Newbold, op. cit., p. 2. W. W. Skeat and H. H. Ridley, "The Orang Laut of Singapore," Journal Straits Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society, N o . 33, January, 1900, p. 247. 2

of the

23 on the island on January 28, 1819, the population numbered about a hundred and fifty, living in a few shabby huts under the rule of the Temenggong. 3 About a hundred and twenty of them were said to be Malays and the rest Chinese. These figures are probably nothing more than an informed guess, but in any case we know that during the first few months the population rose very rapidly through a great influx of immigrants. The first people to be attracted by the many opportunities for making profits in the new trading post of Singapore were the inhabitants in the older settlement of Malacca under Dutch rule. In spite of the severe measures adopted by the Dutch to prevent their subjects f r o m sailing for Singapore and of the petty pirates in the waters of the Malacca Straits, hundreds managed to find their way to Singapore. 4 It seemed that among the new arrivals the majority were Malays and the rest were Chinese. By the middle of 1819 Raffles claimed that the population had risen to about 5,000, as stated in his letter to the Duchess of Somerset on June 11, 1819. His famous words were "my new colony thrives most rapidly. We have not been established four months, and it has received an ascension of population exceeding 5,000—principally Chinese, and their number is daily increasing." 5 According to the same source the population was said to have numbered between 10,000 and 12,000 by August 1820. However, a different account was presented by T. Braddell who gave the figure of 5,874 as the total population in 1821. fi There is no satisfactory way of verifying this figure. One can perhaps say that the enthusiasm of Raffles had led him to exaggerate somewhat and it is more likely that Braddell, writing with the dispassion of a later decade, is nearer the truth. It would appear that Raffles had also erred in overestimating the proportion of Chinese when he remarked that the majority were Chinese. Braddell estimated that the Chinese numbered 1,150 and the Malays 4,724 in 1821, and in fact it was not until the early 1830's that the former outnumbered the latter. The news about the establishment of the free port of Singapore in the centre of an area so rich in trade soon spread far and wide, and traders and settlers f r o m other regions besides the Malay Peninsula began to migrate into the island. The news reached the southern parts of China and Chinese

3

T. J. N e w b o l d , op. cit., p. 2. Song O n g Siang, One Hundred Years' History of the Chinese in Singapore ( L o n d o n : J o h n M u r r a y , 1923), p. 6. 5 Lady Raffles, Memoir of the Life and Public Services of Sir Stamford Raffles, ( L o n d o n : J o h n M u r r a y , 1830) I, p. 383. 6 T. Braddell, op. cit. 4

24 traders, who had previously gone to such places as Malacca, Brunei and Manila, found it safer and more profitable to visit Singapore instead." The first junk arrived from Amoy in February 1821 and ushered in a series of such journeys—normally ending at the close of the northeast monsoon in March or April—which brought the Chinese immigrants into the country. 8 At about the same time the news of the new trading centre in Singapore spread to the Indian continent, and Indian traders soon flocked to the island in fairly large numbers. Apart f r o m traders, there were indentured laborers and convicts among the steady stream of Indians coming into the country in the first few years. T h e early Indians were mainly Chuliahs and Tamils f r o m south India, but subsequently there came also such northern Indians as the Bengalis and Pathans. A third major group were the Indonesian immigrants who came from the neighboring islands in the East Indies in the south. A m o n g them were the Javanese, Bugis and Balinese who were shrewd traders and merchants. Being persons of the same racial stock, these immigrants intermingled with the Malays and became assimilated through marriage and other contacts. Sustained

Growth

T h e large influx of immigrants led to a rapid increase of the population which reached 10,683 by the time of the first census taken in January, 1824. This means that in a matter of only three years after 1821 the population had more than doubled itself. The figures for the rest of the period to 1965 laid out in Table 3.1 show that for one hundred and forty-five years the population experienced an uninterrupted increase with, however, some variation in the actual rates attained at various periods. During the first three decades up to 1849 the annual rate of increase was the highest in the demographic history of the country, exceeding 4.6 per cent, and it is very unlikely that this will ever be equalled in the future. The next five decades following 1849 witnessed a steady slackening in the rate of increase which dipped to the lowest level—2.3 per cent—in the intercensal years 1 8 9 1 - 1 9 0 1 . The low rate of 1.5 per cent recorded during 1 8 6 0 - 1 8 7 1 was caused in the main by the unreliability of the 1860 Census which over-enumerated the population by a large but unknown quantum. What in fact occurred was that the population grew at an average rate of more than 1.5 per cent during 1 8 6 0 - 1 8 7 1 and less than 4.0 during the

7

Song Ong Siang, op. cil., p. 7. Victor Purcell, The Chinese 1948), p. 70. 8

in Malaya

(London:

Oxford University

Press,

25 TABLE 3 . 1

POPULATION GROWTH, 1824-1965

Year 1824

Population

Intercensal

Annual Growth

Increase

Rate (%)

10,683

1830

16,634

5,951

7.7

1840

35,389

18,755

7.8

1849

52,891

17,502

4.6

1860

81,734

28,843

4.0

1871

96,087

14,353

1.5

1881

137,722

41,635

3.7

1891

181,602

43,880

2.6

1901

226,842

45,240

2.3

1911

303,321

76,479

3.0

1921

418,358

115,037

3.3

1931

557,745

139,387

2.9

1947

938,144

380,399

3.2

1957

1,445,929

507,785

4.5

1965

1,864,900

418,971

3.2

preceding period 1849-1860. At the turn of the century the rate of increase quickened somewhat and then remained fairly constant in the neighborhood of 3 per cent until 1947. As is the case in many developing countries, the postwar years saw an acceleration in the population growth, a detailed analysis of which will follow. Factors of Population

Growth

In Table 3.2 is set out a summary of the components of population growth since 1881 when vital statistics for a complete intercensal period first became available. It is possible to divide the population growth in Singapore into four periods according to the relative importance of fertility, mortality and migration as factors determining population increase. In spite of the absence of data for the years prior to 1881 we can consider the first period as covering the whole century from 1819 to 1921 when the increase was due not to an excess of births over deaths but to a large and continuous influx of immigrants. At this time when diseases were not yet brought under the effective control of preventive and curative medical measures the crude death rate stood at a very high level, while on account of the uneven sex ratio the crude birth rate was relatively low. As a result the rate of natural increase was more often than not negative, and it was the huge surplus of net migration that not only compensated for this natural decrease but also enabled the population to grow rapidly.

26 The second period may be taken to cover the twenty years or so from 1921 to 1941 when there was some excess of births over deaths but migration was still the dominant factor of population growth. This period was characterized by a continuous decline in the crude death rate as the devastating tropical diseases such as malaria were brought under effective control and by a slow but steady rise in the crude birth rate caused primarily by the normalizing of the sex ratio. Consequently a widening of the demographic gap between the birth rate and the death rate ensued, and was reflected in the greater volume of natural increase. But net migration inwards remained the principal factor of population increase. The surplus of migrants continued to be large throughout this period, except during the three years 1930-1932 when considerable numbers of unemployed immigrants were repatriated to China and the Indian continent as a result of the world depression. TABLE 3.2 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH, 1881-1965 Intercensal Period

Population Increase

Natural Increase

Net Migrational Increase

1881-91 1891-01 1901-11 1911-21 1921-31

43,900 45,200 76,500 115,000 139,400 380,400 507,800 419,000

-30,600 -42,400 -59,500 -38,000 15,900 180,100 395,300 402,400

74,500 87,600 136,000 153,000 123,500 200,300 112,500 16,600

1931-47 1947-57 1957-65

The third period covers the sixteen years stretching from about 1941 to 1957 when natural increase replaced migration as the chief determinant of population growth without, however, a slackening in the rate of increase. During the Japanese occupation of 1942—1945 there was no immigration from China and the Indian continent, and after the war immigration from all overseas countries was under strict control. The postwar years witnessed a rapid decline in the crude death rate and the maintenance of the crude birth rate at a high level which resulted in the high rate of natural increase. The shift between natural increase and migration has not approached the stage when the migrational surplus is reduced to nothing. Within the migrational factor itself, there appeared to have occurred a pronounced shift from net migration from overseas countries to net migration from Malaya.

27 Sometime after 1957 there appeared the fourth period which is distinguished by the reduction of migration to an almost negligible level and by the sustained decrease in the rate of natural increase consequent on the drop in the birth rate. As will be elaborated upon hereafter, the complete replacement of migration with natural increase as the sole means of population growth will continue in the future. Comparison Among Main Races A comparison of the annual rate of population increase among the three main races is presented in Table 3.3. An interesting general feature of the table is the frequent sharp fluctuation in the rate of increase recorded by the Malays and the Indians, which seems to stand out clearly against the minor oscillations of the Chinese rate. From the peak level of about 12 per cent in 1824—30, the Chinese rate decreased rapidly during the first two decades and subsequently very slowly but steadily to about 3 per cent towards the close of the nineteenth century, and thereafter it remained at slightly above this level during the greater part of the present century. One plausible explanation for the dip to 0.4 per cent in 1860-71 is the possible over-enumeration of the Chinese in the 1860 Census. The somewhat higher rate recorded during 1947-57 appears to be a characteristic feature noticeable in the other two races as well. Table 3.3 shows that the Malay population was more often than not increasing at a slower pace than the Chinese population. However, a recent TABLE 3 . 3

ANNUAL RATES OF POPULATION GROWTH FOR THREE MAIN RACES, 1824-1965 Period

Chinese

Malays

Indians

1824-30

12.0

2.9

16.7

1830-40

10.4

5.6

5.8

1840-49

5.0

2.9

7.2

1849-60

5.4

5.2

6.8

1860-71

0.4

4.4

0.0

1871-81

4.8

2.4

0.2

1881-91

3.5

0.1

2.9

1891-01

3.0

0.0

0.6 5.0

1901-11

3.0

1.5

1911-21

3.7

2.5

1.5

1921-31

2.9

2.0

4.6

1931-47

3.5

3.6

1.9

1947-57

4.1

5.6

6.1

1957-65

3.2

3.9

2.7

28 development worth special consideration is the reverse position prevailing during the postwar years. The explanation for the higher Malay rate recorded during 1947-57 lies in the relatively greater volume of net internal migration from Malaya to Singapore, while the similar phenomenon, though not so pronounced, prevailing after 1957 is engendered by different factors. These are the constant high Malay birth rate, well above 46 per thousand mid-year population, and the somewhat rapid decline of the Chinese birth rate from 42 in 1957 to 28 in 1965. The two extremes of the growth rates registered in Singapore seem to have been experienced by the Indians; the highest increase of about 17 per cent in 1824—30 and a population decrease in 1860-71. A relative picture of the components of population growth among the main races may be observed in Table 3.4. The figures for natural increase seem to exhibit a definite trend, a diminution in the volume of natural decrease followed by an increase in the volume of natural increase. However, TABLE 3 . 4

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH FOR THREE MAIN RACES, 1901-1965 Intercensal

Population

Natural

Net Migrational

Period

Increase

Increase

Increase

Chinese 1901-11 1911-21

55,500

-53,300

108,800

95,600

-36,600

132,200

1921-31

103,500

9,600

93,900

1931-47

310,800

176,500

134,300

1947-57

361,100

303,700

57,400

1957-65

305,900

288,600

17,300

1901-11

5,800

-1,800

7,600

1911-21

11,800

600

11,200

1921-31

11,400

5,700

5,700

1931-47

48,800

8,100

40,700

1947-57

83,300

48,800

34,500

1957-65

69,500

73,100

-3,600

1901-11

10,700

-4,500

1911-21

4,600

-3,800

8,400

1921-31

18,500

-1,300

19,800

Malays

Indians 15,200

1931-47

18,200

900

17,300

1947-57

55,100

29,200

25,900

1957-65

29,600

32,700

-3,100

29 the time at which the turning point o c c u r r e d differs a p p r e c i a b l y f r o m r a c e to r a c e , the first to r e c o r d a n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e b e i n g the M a l a y s a n d the last b e i n g the I n d i a n s . It should b e e m p h a s i z e d t h a t the deciding f a c t o r was not the death rate but the birth r a t e , the level o f which in those days was d e t e r mined primarily by the sex ratio o f the p o p u l a t i o n . A c o m p a r i s o n o f the last two c o l u m n s reveals that f o r every

race,

migration played a m o r e d o m i n a n t role in the growth o f the p o p u l a t i o n during the years prior to the S e c o n d W o r l d W a r . A f t e r the w a r the position s e e m s to vary slightly a m o n g the three r a c e s . In so f a r as the M a l a y s and the

Indians

1947-57

are

concerned

the

population

increase

in

the

first

period

was due quite substantially to m i g r a t i o n . T h e position f o r

the

C h i n e s e in the s a m e period is quite different in the sense that n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was the principal s o u r c e o f p o p u l a t i o n growth. T h e last c o u p l e of years has witnessed a significant c h a n g e in w h i c h the p o p u l a t i o n o f e v e r y r a c e has b e e n growing almost solely by m e a n s of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e ; in fact f o r the first time a deficit in net m i g r a t i o n is b e i n g r e c o r d e d a n d this o c c u r s a m o n g the M a l a y s and the I n d i a n s . Postwar

Population

Growth

In an E . C . A . F . E .

Bulletin

issued

in

1959

it was

reported:

"The

rate o f population growth in A s i a and the F a r E a s t has a c c e l e r a t e d in r e c e n t y e a r s b e c a u s e m o r t a l i t y has rapidly declined while fertility, o n the c o n t r a r y , has r e m a i n e d c o n s t a n t . " u T h i s is indeed an apt description o f the position in S i n g a p o r e during the p o s t w a r years up to 1 9 5 7 o r t h e r e a b o u t s . T h e total p o p u l a t i o n o f S i n g a p o r e n u m b e r e d 1 , 4 4 5 , 9 2 9 in the

1957

C e n s u s as against the figure o f 9 3 8 , 1 4 4 o b t a i n e d in the p r e c e d i n g C e n s u s o f 1 9 4 7 , thus giving a n i n c r e a s e o f 5 0 7 , 7 8 5 o r an a n n u a l growth rate o f 4 . 5 per c e n t . T h i s , in c o m p a r i s o n with the previous rates r e c o r d e d , is the highest ever e x p e r i e n c e d in the last c e n t u r y . I t would s e e m s o m e w h a t b a f fling that this high rate could h a v e b e e n a t t a i n e d in the a b s e n c e o f large s c a l e i m m i g r a t i o n s u c h as o c c u r r e d in the p r e w a r days. T h e r e a r e plausible reasons. In the first place, as a result o f the rapid decline

two in

mortality a n d the persistingly high level o f fertility, the a n n u a l rate o f n a t u r a l increase by itself was a l r e a d y high, a r o u n d 3 . 5 per cent. I n the s e c o n d p l a c e , t h e r e was a c o n s i d e r a b l e m o v e m e n t o f p e o p l e f r o m the v a r i o u s parts o f

!l Population Trends and Related Problems of Economic Development in E.C.A.F.E. Region, United Nations, Economic Bulletin for Asia and the Far East, Vol. I, No. 1, June 1959, p. 2.

30 Malaya into the City state of Singapore. T h e magnitude of this urbanization phenomenon may be deduced from the following figures:

Period

Intercensal Growth

Natural Increase

Net Migration

1947-57

507,800

395,300

112,500

The last figure represents the net total of external migration and Singapore/ Malaya migration, but it was estimated that Singapore was depleted by a net external migration to overseas countries of about 29,200 during the intercensal period. Adding 29,200 to the figure of 112,500 gives us an estimate of the total net Singapore/Malaya migration of 141,700, which is equivalent to an average of about 14,200 persons per year or an annual rate of increase of approximately one per cent. This is the factor that was responsible for inflating an annual natural increase of about 3.5 per cent into an annual growth rate of about 4.5 per cent. For Singapore and Malaya as a whole the actual population increase during 1947-57 amounted to 1,880,800, but the natural increase for the same period was 2,020,100 thus giving a net external (or overseas) migration outwards of 139,300. On the other hand, the estimated volume of external migration based on land, sea and air arrival and departure statistics was 104,500 for Singapore and Malaya, broken down into 82,600 for the latter and 21,900 for the former. Applying this percentage distribution between the two territories to the actual external migrational deficit of 139,300 will give us the estimate of 29,200 for Singapore, while the remaining 110,100 is for Malaya. The years following 1957 witnessed certain important developments which have been responsible for reducing the rate of population increase to a comparatively lower level of 3.2 per cent on the average. It may be recalled that after the war a spectacular decline was recorded in the mortality level which approached very close to its possible minimum by 1957, and since then, not unexpectedly, the decline has slackened somewhat. What is really significant is that fertility, having remained at its peak for many decades, commenced to fall in 1957 and has continued falling very sharply in recent years. The third development is in respect of Singapore/Malaya migration which has been reduced to a relatively low volume as may be seen in the following figures: Population

Natural

Net

Period

Growth

Increase

Migration

1957-65

419,000

402,400

16,600

31 There is enough evidence to show that the change in fertility level will continue on a downward trend and that Singapore/Malaya migration is now almost at a standstill following the separation of Singapore from Malaysia, with the result that the rate of population growth is now slackening further. A rate of 2.4 per cent was recorded in 1965.

II. Population Distribution Singapore is a comparatively small country of not more than 224.5 square miles, but for administrative requirements the island at the time of the 1957 Census was already divided into a city area and a rural area, with the latter sub-divided into the districts of Katong, Serangoon, Bukit Panjang, Jurong and Southern Islands. Strictly speaking, the last five administrative districts are not rural in character in all respects. The rapid growth of the population has witnessed a steady flow of residents from the overcrowded city centre into the outlying districts, resulting in the gradual building up of fairly sizeable suburbs throughout the main island. One should also bear in mind that, except for the Southern Islands, communication of people and ideas between the rural districts and the City is extremely easy in an area about twenty-seven miles from east to west and fourteen miles from north to south. Table 3.5 shows that out of the total population of 1,445,929 enumerated in 1957 about 912,000 or 63.1 per cent resided in the City alone, while the next largest proportion of 14.4 per cent was taken up by Serangoon which was just a bit ahead of Katong with 13.7 per cent. The two western districts of Bukit Panjang and Jurong had a share of 4.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively. The remaining 1.0 per cent inhabited the Southern TABLE 3.5 P E R C E N T D I S T R I B U T I O N O F P O P U L A T I O N BY A D M I N I S T R A T I V E D I S T R I C T A N D R A C E ,

District SINGAPORE City Katong Serangoon Bukit Panjang Jurong Southern Islands

1957

Percentage by Race

Percentage by District

Chinese

Malays

Indians

Others

100.0

75.4

13.6

8.6

2.4

63.1 13.7 14.4 4.3 3.5 1.0

77.8 62.1 79.3 76.0

11.0

8.8 7.2 10.5 9.9

2.4 3.2 2.1

82.8 25.4

27.5 8.1 12.9 14.2 69.1

2.7 3.9

1.2 0.3 1.6

32 Islands which had in fact seen a population reduction from 1 5 , 5 3 6 in 1947 to 14,298 in 1957 mainly because of the limited economic resources available in these small islands. Most of those who left were Chinese from Pulau Blakang Mati and Pulau Sakijong Bendara (St. John's Island). Some interesting contrasts in the racial composition of the population in the six administrative districts are revealed by the data presented in Table 3.5. By and large the racial composition of the population of the City tends to deviate only in a small way from the national position, whereas substantial variations exist among the rural districts. A feature that stands out clearly is the predominance of Malays, about 7 0 per cent, among the population living in the Southern Islands; the majority of these are engaged in fishing and in the oil installations in Pulau Bukom. At the other extreme, is the Serangoon district with 8 per cent of Malays and a relatively large proportion of Indians. In contrast, only 3 per cent of the population are Indians in the Jurong area. Except for the Southern Islands, there is generally a smaller variation in the proportion of Chinese among the different districts. If the population of Singapore in 1957 had been distributed evenly throughout the Island, there would have been 6,441 persons living in one square mile. In point of fact the population was not and will never be distributed so evenly across the land area; at any given time there would be large areas with densities far below the average, and there are some areas that have much higher densities. Looking at the administrative district level first, it may be observed in Table 3 . 6 that the density in the City approached 2 4 , 2 6 4 persons per square mile as against the corresponding figure of 8 5 0 persons for Jurong. T h e next lowest density is noticeable in Bukit Panjang with 1,728 persons in each square mile. Curiously enough, TABLE 3.6 POPULATION DENSITY BY DISTRICT, 1957 Area in

Population

Sq. Miles

per Sq. Mile

1,445,929

224.5

6,441

City

912,343

37.6

24,264

Katong

198,680 208,021 61,522

40.4 47.3

4,918 4,398

35.6

1,728

Jurong

51,065

60.1

850

33.3

Southern Islands

14,298

3.5

4,085

100.0

District SINGAPORE

Serangoon Bukit Panjang

Population

%

Living

in Villages —

15.0 22.2 35.3

33 the other three rural districts do not display any significant difference in their population densities. In the same table are given the figures in respect to the proportion of the total population in each rural district living in villages of size below 5,000; this may be useful in reflecting the relative ruralism of these districts. In the Southern Islands all the inhabitants live in villages of less than 5,000 people; these small islands may be considered as completely rural with very few modern amenities such as electricity and piped water. As for the main island of Singapore it is interesting to note that the proportion of persons residing in villages becomes smaller as one moves from west to east where the rate of urbanization has been greater. A very detailed pattern of population density is depicted in M a p O n e which underlines the wide variations in density among the various small census districts. The m a p reveals even more strikingly the great concentration of population in the heart of the City where densities of more than 200,000 persons per square mile are not unknown. In the census district of Tanjong Pagar V there were 20,253 persons living in an area of 0.055 square mile, which gives a density of 368,236 persons per square mile. The next highest was noted in Tanjong Pagar III which has 233,130 persons to the square mile. As one travels away from these highly dense areas in any direction into the rural districts one encounters a progressive diminution in population density. The lowest density approaches 475 persons per square mile in the census district of Changi VII, 476 persons in Bukit Timah VII and 499 persons in Bukit Panjang V. A further general impression is of the decreasing density in the rural districts as one moves from the east towards the west. However, one new development has occurred in recent years which will tend to eliminate this difference; the emergence of the Jurong Industrial Estate which has in fact transferred a sizeable population to the western side of the country. With a population of 1,820,000 in 1964 and a total land area of 224.5 square miles, Singapore has an overall population density of about 8,107 persons per square mile, which is equivalent to 3,133 persons per square kilometre. A comparison of the latter figure with those of other countries shows that Singapore stands out as an extremely densely populated country, being well ahead even of Hong Kong which has 2,027 persons to the square kilometre. Singapore's density is approximately ten times that of Taiwan, twelve times that of Japan, twenty times that of Switzerland and forty times that of France. By comparison the neighbouring states in Malaysia have very low density, 59 persons per square kilometre for Malaya and 7 persons for Sabah as well as for Sarawak.

35 If the limited land area and the fairly rapid population increase in the future is taken into consideration, one can hardly exaggerate the seriousness of the problem of over-population in Singapore from the physical angle alone. In fact the scarcity of land for the overall development of the country was recognized, and resulted in the implementation of the master plan in the mid-1950's to control the use of the limited land available by setting aside sites for residential estates, agricultural expansion, industrial development and many other purposes. 10 One of the effects of the general shortage of land and the great demand for land for many uses is that the price of land has risen sharply in the postwar years. The high price has attracted some investment in land and it has also brought the less desirable practice of land speculation which hinders the proper utilization of land for useful purposes. The shortage of suitable land for housing presents a major problem to the building industry, and is partly reflected in the increasing tendency to build upwards, particularly in the case of flats constructed by the Housing and Development Board. There is also a scarcity of land suitable for certain types of agriculture; there is for instance no large low-lying wet area suitable for padi cultivation which means that the staple food of the people has to be imported. Intensive mixed vegetable farming takes up most of the available agricultural land. Furthermore, there is an obvious lack of land for locating factories; so much so that the government has found it necessary to convert certain areas partially covered by swamps into industrial sites at considerable cost. By and large the pressure of over-population on land is being felt in most sectors, and this feeling of land pressure in the comparatively small country of 224.5 square miles will tend to intensify with the growth of the population.

10

1955).

Singapore,

Master

Plan Report

of Survey,

(Singapore: Government

Printer,

4 MIGRATION

In official matters concerning migration the States of Malaya and Singapore were treated as a single unit governed by common laws until August 1965. Persons disembarking at one territory could easily proceed to the next through the railroad causeway where movement between the two was completely free and unrestricted. T h e official statistics compiled refer to this overall unit. It has therefore been decided to present our account of migration in terms of this overall unit, Singapore/Malaya, which will be referred to in this chapter as the shortened term, " M a l a y a . " Among the countries in Southeast Asia Malaya has been one of the most important areas of migration since the establishment of British colonial rule in the early nineteenth century. T h e large and sustained immigration was engendered by the demand for labor in the public works and primary producing-industry sectors, by the excellent prospects for trade and commerce, and by the law and order attendant on British rule. Such forces of attraction, coupled with liberal immigration policies, were reinforced by equally strong repelling forces in the immigrants' countries of origin. Natural calamities, political upheavels, population pressure, and lack of economic opportunities were the decisive factors that induced the immigrants to leave their countries for Malaya, where the supply of labor from the Malays was seldom adequate. In the early days the immigrants would usually leave their families behind and come to Malaya not as permanent settlers but as "birds-ofpassage", sending regular remittances home, making occasional visits, and eventually emigrating back to their countries after acquiring some wealth or on retirement. In the course of time, however, an increasing number remained permanently, though the transient character of the population persisted for many decades until the outbreak of war in Malaya in 1941. Since then, the Japanese occupation, the increasing supply of local labor and the strict immigration control have put an end to large-scale immigration, and at the same time the majority of the pre-war immigrants have by now made Malaya their permanent home.

37 There were essentially three main streams of immigration into Malaya; the northern stream from China, the western stream from India, and the less important stream from the then Dutch East Indies in the south. In view of the pronounced differences in their magnitude, composition, mode of entry and home-government regulations, it is perhaps more convenient to consider each stream separately. One important point to remember is that emigration of permanent residents of Malaya to foreign countries has always been insignificant, if not non-existent. T h e emigration figures presented in the various tables refer to persons who had in the first place migrated into Malaya and were for one reason or another returning to their mother countries.

I. Chinese Migration Chinese contacts with Nanyang or the Southern Ocean could be traced back to ancient times when Chinese pilgrims, travellers and goodwill missions visited the region. As for the Malay Peninsula the Chinese appeared to have frequented it from the early fourth century, but it was only in the mid-fourteenth century that they were known to have first settled at Tumasik or Old Singapore. In the fifteenth century Chinese merchants and emissaries visited the Malay Kingdom in Malacca, and during the latter years there were probably Chinese staying there as merchants and traders. T h e establishment of British rule in Penang, Malacca and Singapore in the early nineteenth century marks the beginning of a long period of continuous Chinese migration. It was mainly the good employment opportunities in the tin-mining industry and in agricultural enterprises and the bright prospects for business that attracted the Chinese newcomers. Motivated by the desire to expand trade and develop the primary producing industries, the British placed no restriction on the movement of the Chinese. But for several reasons, the Chinese government on its part was definitely against the emigration of its nationals to overseas territories. 1 Nevertheless, thousands of Chinese managed to come into the country during the first half of the nineteenth century. B y far the largest group were those who came to work as laborers in the tin mines, pepper and tapioca farms, gambier and sugar-cane plantations. 2 1 Victor Purcell, The Chinese in Southeast Asia, (London: Oxford University Press, 1951), pp. 33-36. 2 P. C. Campbell, Chinese Coolie Emigration to Countries within the British Empire, (London: P. S. King and Son. 1923), p. 5.

38 By mid-nineteenth century the immigration of Chinese had developed a well-organized system.3 Potential immigrants were recruited in South China, particularly Kwanghung and Fukien provinces, by a returned emigrant known as kheh thau (or headman) or by a professional recruiter. The kheh thau usually carried out the recruiting in his own village among persons known to him. He accompanied his sin kheh—or new recruits—to their final destination in Malaya and handed them over to a particular employer for whom he acted as agent. Sometimes the kheh thau was also the recruits' headman or overseer in the tin mines or plantations, and in more recent times, as a laborer contractor, he became their employer. As for the professional recruiter, he accompanied or sent his recruits to lodging-houses at the Chinese ports from which they were shipped to Malaya. On arrival the recruits were met by an agent of the lodging-houses in the Malayan ports, and then dispatched to employers or labor contractors. The lodging-house owners acted as brokers, reaping a handsome profit out of the recruitment, dispatch and distribution of Chinese immigrant laborers. It would be surprising if the lodging-houses did not in fact account for the major proportion of Chinese immigration in the nineteenth century, but statistical evidence is not available. Whichever of the two channels the immigrants came by, they had their passages and other expenses paid for them and were therefore already in debt on arrival. The total cost was included in the price paid by the employer who recovered the sum from their monthly wages. On the whole, the system of Chinese immigration at that time was known to suffer from many undesirable practices, the most serious being ill-treatment and exploitation. Until 1877 no laws were enacted to protect the immigrants especially those employed as laborers, and conversely throughout this period their entry into Malaya was completely free and unrestricted. The Government's attempt at protecting and regulating Chinese immigrants was first instituted on March 23, 1877, with the passing of the Chinese Immigration Ordinance (No. 11 of 1877). A Chinese Protectorate Office under the charge of a Protector of Chinese Immigration was established in 1877 under the provision of this Ordinance. Conditions on board junks and steamers were improved, depots for the reception of immigrants were set up, and recruiters were licensed.4 A more important result was the 3 A more detailed account of the method of Chinese immigration at this time may be obtained from W. L. Blythe, "Historical Sketch of Chinese Labour in Malaya," Journal of Malayan Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society, Vol. X X , Part 1, June 1947, pp. 6 4 - 1 2 5 . 4 R. N. Jackson, Immigrant Labour and the Development of Malaya, (Kuala Lumpur: Government Printer, 1961), p. 72.

39 emergence of Chinese indentured immigrants who signed formal contracts according to the provisions of the ordinance and thus received protection from the law. However, a large number of immigrants still preferred not to sign contracts, remaining legally free but in practice in the clutches of their employers as long as their debts were not paid up. A third category was the really free and independent immigrants who came on their own to seek a livelihood as businessmen, shopkeepers, hawkers, artisans and in many other occupations. Figures for indentured immigrants, or passengers whose fares were paid for by persons with whom they entered into formal contracts for service on arrival, indicate that the number declined gradually over the course of years. In the 1880's the proportion of indentured immigrants amounted to slightly above 20 per cent, and by the 1910's the proportion had fallen to below 10 per cent. The gradual decline in the proportion of indentured immigrants may be attributed partly to the preference of some immigrants not to sign formal contracts and partly to the few real advantages to be gained by employers in hiring indentured immigrants. 5 The original aim of introducing formal contracts was therefore only partially achieved, and a considerable number of Chinese immigrants were still susceptible to exploitation. By the early 1910's public opinion against the indentured system was gathering momentum in China and culminating in the Malayan government's passing of the Labour Contracts Ordinance of 1914 by which Chinese indentured immigration was abolished from June 30, 1914." The banning of indentured Chinese labor in 1914 left the government with almost no legislation to deal with Chinese immigration, and for a long period the Chinese were free to enter the country unhampered by any legal hindrance. It was in 1928 that the Immigration Restriction Ordinance was enacted by the government to equip itself with the necessary powers to regulate or prohibit immigration whenever the influx of immigrants threatened to bring about unemployment, economic distress, or other situations which were not in the public interest. 7 The ordinance appears to have been prompted also by the government's desire to exercise a stricter control with the view to excluding criminals and other undesirable elements. However,

5

C. W. C. Parr, Report of Commission Appointed to Enquire into the Conditions of Indentured Labour in the Federated Malay Slates, 1910, pp. 10-12. 6 Straits Settlements, Report of Protector of Chinese, 1914, (Singapore: Government Press 1915), p. 46. 7 Norman Parmer, Colonial Labour Policy and Adminstration (New York: Monograph of the Association for Asian Studies No. IX, 1960), p. 30.

40 the powers conferred by the ordinance w e r e not e m p l o y e d until a f e w years later. W i t h the growth of widespread unemployment f o l l o w i n g the closure of some tin mines and rubber estates and the general worsening of

the

e c o n o m y during the w o r l d depression of the early 1930's, the government used the ordinance to proclaim a monthly quota on adult Chinese

male

immigrants f r o m August 1, 1930, onwards. 8 F r o m an initial figure of 6,016 per month, the quota was eventually reduced to 1,000 per month during the last five months of 1932, but no restriction was placed on the immigration of Chinese w o m e n , and children under twelve years of age. Though

the

ordinance

did

result

in

a considerable

reduction

of

Chinese immigrants, experience showed that it was not entirely satisfactory because it could be resorted to only in emergencies and did not p r o v i d e any control over immigrants once they had landed. M o r e o v e r , it was generally felt that the time had c o m e to introduce quantitative and qualitative control on the admission of aliens according to the political, social and economic needs of the country. T h e ordinance was thus replaced by the Ordinance

Aliens

of 1933, which came into force on January 1, 1933, and almost

all functions concerning Chinese immigration w e r e transferred f r o m

the

Chinese Protectorate O f f i c e to the new Immigration Department. 9 T h e new ordinance was designed not only to regulate the entry of aliens but also to register and control alien residents in the country. Indian immigrants f r o m British India, being British subjects, were not affected by this ordinance which was intended to control the a l i e n — o r non-British-subject—Chinese immigrants f r o m China. F r o m A p r i l 1, 1933, the quota system of restricting adult Chinese male immigrants was continued under the Aliens Ordinance until the outbreak of the Second W o r l d W a r in December 1941. T h e monthly quota varied from

500 to 6,000,

though remaining

constant

at 4,000 f r o m

August

1934 to January 1937. A t the beginning of 1933 unemployment and economic distress still prevailed and most of the monthly quotas w e r e not fully utilized. Nevertheless, employers' criticism of the ordinance f o r its possible adverse effects on the supply of labor caused the government to introduce an amendment in D e c e m b e r 1933 to meet any likely shortage of labor in the future. 1 0 T h e amendment, affecting Section 8

Straits

Settlements,

Report

of Protector

Report

of

of Chinese,

12a, allowed

employers,

1930 (Singapore:

Govern-

ment Press, 1932), p. 65. 9

Straits

Settlements,

the Immigration

Department,

1933

(Singapore:

of the Immigration

Department,

1933,

(Singapore:

G o v e r n m e n t Press, 1935), p. 23. 10

Straits

Settlements,

Report

G o v e r n m e n t Press, 1935), p. 32.

41 who could give adequate reasons, to obtain official permits to recruit laborers abroad and bring them to Malaya outside the quota. During 1934 and 1935 some Chinese male immigrants were permitted to enter by means of these permits, but the primary aim of the amendment was not achieved and relatively few permits were issued after mid-1935. 11 The immigration of Chinese women and children continued to be exempted from any restriction under the Aliens Ordinance; the government was anxious to encourage the immigration of women in order to improve the sex ratio. But by 1938 Malaya had suffered a reduction in the exports of tin and rubber, and the demand for Chinese labor had fallen sharply. In order to ease the unemployment situation the government cancelled the exemption of alien women from the ordinance and proclaimed a monthly quota of 500 on the immigration of alien women on May 1, 1938, thus for the first time controlling the movement of Chinese women.12 Immigration of Chinese was of course at a complete standstill during World War II, from December, 1941, to September, 1945. In the immediate postwar years Chinese immigration continued to be regulated by the pre-war Aliens Ordinance, but by the 1950's two new developments had emerged to make the government adopt a new attitude towards immigration in general. The overall demand for labor was not increasing at such a rapid rate as in the pre-war days, and there was now an

adequate

supply

of

labor

from

the

Malays

and

from

the

earlier

immigrants and their children. It became increasingly necessary to exercise a tight control on all immigrants and to allow permanent entry only to those who could contribute to the social and economic development of the country. With this end in view the old Aliens Ordinance was replaced with the more comprehensive Immigration Ordinance of 1953 which came into force on August 1, 1953. 1:1 This ordinance, together with its many subsequent amendments, is employed to regulate not only Chinese immigrants but also Indian, Malay and other immigrants. The ordinance in the first place restricts permanent entry to the following: ( a ) persons who can contribute to the expansion of c o m m e r c e and industry,

11 Straits Settlements and Department, 1935 (Singapore: 12 Straits Settlements and Department, 1938 (Singapore: 13 Federation of Malaya Press, 1954), p. 9.

Federated Malay States, Report of the Immigration Government Press, 1937), p. 32. Federated Malay Slates, Report of the Immigration Government Press, 1940), p. 61. Annual Report, 1953 (Kuala Lumpur: Government

42 (b) persons who can provide specialized services not available locally, ( c ) families of local residents, and (d) others on special compassionate grounds.

In 1959 the ordinance was amended to tighten entry under ( c ) by prohibiting the entry of wives and children of local residents who have been living separately from their husbands for five continuous years after December 1954, and children of citizens who are six years of age and more. 1 4 In addition, children aged six and more of those persons admitted as specialists under ( b ) or on grounds of economic benefit under ( a ) are also prohibited from entering. The principal objectives of the amendment are to safe-guard the employment and livelihood of residents and "to bring about a more balanced and assimilated Malayan population whose ties and loyalty are to this country alone without which the foundation of a true Malayan nation cannot be laid." 15 On the whole, the ordinance has provided a very strict and effective control over the quantity and quality of immigrants of all races into Malaya during the postwar years. Overall Chinese

Migration

In Table 4.1 the yearly statistics of Chinese immigrants from 1881 and emigrants, hence also net migrants, from 1916 are set out. The statistics below the dotted line refer to arrivals and departures by air, sea and land. The years 1 8 8 1 - 1 9 1 3 were characterized by a gradual upward trend, with some minor fluctuations, in the annual number of immigrants, increasing from about 90,000 in 1881 to about 250,000 at the end of this period. The next ten years first witnessed a major curtailment in the annual inflow caused by the First World War and its aftermath, reinforced subsequently by the local slump of 1921-1923. This was followed by a short period, 1924-1930, of uninterrupted and greatly enlarged immigration, with the record number of 359,000 in 1927. Then came the second and more serious setback in the 1930's when the world depression and the government restriction took the annual inflow to unprecedented low levels in the first few years. The slight recovery in the late thirties was attributable to the large influex of women.

14

Immigration Ordinance, 1959, No. 12 of 1959 (Kuala Lumpur: Government Printer, 1959). 15 The Straits Times, November 3, 1959. Statement issued to the press by the Malayan Ministry of External Affairs and the Singapore Ministry of Home Affairs on the new immigration orders issued under the amended ordinance.

TABLE 4.1 ANNUAL CHINESE IMMIGRANTS AND EMIGRANTS

1881-1962

Year

Immigrants

Year

Immigrants

Emigrants

Net Migrants

1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902

89,801 101,009 109,136 106,748 111,456 144,517 167,906 164,300 150,809 127,936 126,088 134,448 213,717 153,954 190,901 175,718 114,978 133,558 149,697 200,947 178,778 207,156

1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

183,399 155,167 58,421 70,912 126,077 191,043 132,886 159,019 181,430 214,692 348,593 359,262 295,700 293,167 242,149 79,091 33,534 27,796 98,864 141,892 143,331 239,106 98,863

61,630 41,282 35,585 37,590 68,383 98,986 96,869 78,121 87,749 77,920 120,308 155,198 149,354 139,967 167,903 213,992 282,779 86,555 68,129 69,025 80,578 66,502 54,603

121,769 113,885 22,836 33,322 57,694 92,057 36,017 80,898 93,681 136,772 228,285 204,064 146,346 153,200 74,246 -134,901 -249,245 - 58,759 30,735 72,867 62,753 172,604 44,260

1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915

220,321 204,796 173,131 176,587 227,342 153,452 151,752 216,321 269,854 251,644 240,979 147,150 95,735

1939 1940 1941 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962

160,448 147,016 117,426 126,203 105,209 96,449 82,676 77,437 64,197 67,145 62,683 74,230 98,255 101,145 82,961 80,889 86,807 89,054 99,561

146,109 143,694 110,826 130,242 110,714 128,884 87,751 113,767 77,785 73,550 67,888 70,945 84,727 95,773 75,092 72,768 85,195 88,902 96,062

14,339 3,322 6,600 4,039 5,505 32,435 5,075 36,330 13,588 6,405 5,205 3,285 13,528 3,372 7,869 8,121 1,612 152 3,499

-

-

S o u r c e s : Annual Reports ot the Protector of Chinese, 1 8 8 1 - 1 9 3 2 , Straits Settlements, a n d Annual Reports ot the Immigration Department, 1 9 3 3 - 1 9 3 8 , Straits Settlements and Federated Malay States, a n d Malayan Statistics Monthly Digest, 1 9 3 9 - 1 9 6 2 , S i n g a p o r e . N o t e s : T h e f i g u r e s f o r 1 9 3 9 - 1 9 6 2 refer t o t o t a l a r r i v a l s a n d d e p a r t u r e s b y a i r , s e a a n d l a n d . F i g u r e s for 1 9 4 2 - 1 9 4 6 a r e not a v a i l a b l e .

44 B u t the enforcement of control on Chinese female immigration in May, 1938, kept the overall volume of inflow relatively low until the outbreak of war. While a complete cessation of immigration occurred during the Japanese occupation, the postwar years witnessed much reduced immigration—lower than in the nineteenth century—consequent on government control. In fact, the actual inflow was probably much lower than Table 4.1 suggests because the postwar arrival figures included temporary visitors.

T h e annual number of emigrants, mainly persons returning for short visits or for good, following a term of employment, also showed a rising trend from 1916 to 1932, but the somewhat high figure for the last three years of this period was in the main due to the repatriation of the unemployed at the height of the depression. From 1933 to the outbreak of war in 1 9 4 1 , the annual outflow seemed to have been stabilized between 6 0 , 0 0 0 to 8 0 , 0 0 0 . There is reason to believe that the departure figures for the early postwar years included an appreciable number of pre-war immigrants who would have normally returned to China during 1 9 4 2 - 1 9 4 5 except for the war. T h e annual number of net migrants displayed a rather indefinite trend with considerable fluctuations throughout. By far the largest gain for Malaya

45 took place in the 1930's particularly during the second half when about 0.8 million net gain was recorded. In contrast, the net loss during the world depression amounted to a b o u t 0.4 million. Perhaps the most striking feature is that the first ten postwar years witnessed a continuous deficit, though not a substantial one, as a result of rigid controls on inward movement and of the outward movement being swelled by persons prevented f r o m emigrating earlier. II. Indian Migration Contacts between India and the Malay Archipelago go back far into ancient times when traders f r o m both regions visited one another's seaports. F r o m the early seventh century such trading relations were reinforced by cultural and religious influences f r o m India through the Hindu E m p i r e of Srivijaya in S u m a t r a — a b o u t 6 0 0 - 1 0 0 0 A.D. 1 " T h e movement of traders, missionaries, and settlers between the two regions continued into the periods of E u r o p e a n domination of the Straits of Malacca, but such movements, being mainly personal and unorganized, occurred on a somewhat spasmodic and meager scale. Following the establishment of British rule in this area in the early nineteenth century, a radical change took place in the pattern of Indian migration. It came to be not only officially countenanced and organized b u t continuous and sizeable in n u m b e r . T h e British brought in Indian convicts and indentured immigrants to construct public works, while in the private sector the plantation owners imported both free and indentured immigrants to w o r k in their agricultural estates. In addition, there were, as in the early days, the free immigrants who had come on their own to seek trade a n d c o m m e r c e , and employment in the domestic and government services. T h r o u g h o u t the nineteenth century Indian migration was fairly steady and m o d e r a t e , but the turn of the century witnessed an increasing flow of migrants engendered mainly by the rapid growth of the rubber industry. T h i s flow was completely stopped during the J a p a n e s e occupation w h e n contacts with India were cut off for about f o u r years, and after the war it r e s u m e d at an insignificant level owing to rigid government control. Convict

Immigration

Since the nineteenth century the immigration of Indians gradually evolved into several distinct forms according to the needs and conditions

16

37-57.

D. G. E. Hall, A History of Southeast Asia (London: Macmillan, 1958), pp.

46 prevailing in the country. One of the earliest forms was the immigration of Indian convicts, introduced soon after the founding of the Straits Settlements by the East India Company the governing body of which was at Bengal. The convicts constituted a cheap and ready supply of labor to the government in the construction of essential public works, such as roads, railways, bridges, canals and wharves. After completing their sentences they were repatriated to India but a few were allowed to remain behind to seek new jobs and a fresh start in life. Convict immigration was not very substantial, numbering 416 in May, 1855 to May, 1856; 562 in May, 1856 to May, 1857; and 148 in May, 1859 to May, I860. 17 The total number in Malaya at any one time amounted to a few thousands only, for instance 772 in 1805, 3,802 in 1885, 4,024 in 1857, and 4,063 in 1860. But convict immigration received much publicity and criticism while it lasted; and it was finally prohibited after 1860 and those remaining were repatriated to India by 1873. 18 Indentured

Immigration

Indentured immigration appears to have been introduced also in the early nineteenth century, but it was not until 1872 that it was legalized and controlled by laws enacted by the Indian government. 19 From 1884 it was brought under the control and protection of regulations in Malaya. Immigrants imported under indenture were mainly employed by plantation owners in cultivating tapioca, tea, coffee and sugar-cane and by government in the railway and public works departments. Notwithstanding the protection accorded by the law, a decreasing proportion of Indians immigrated under this system owing to the lack of choice and freedom in selecting and changing jobs. Moreover, by the end of the nineteenth century long contracts were found to be unsuitable in the coffee plantations and in 1899 the period of contract was reduced from three to two years. Even so, the usefulness of the indenture system was beginning to diminish as more Indians preferred to come under the kangany system. With the introduction of a new form of assisted immigration in 1908 and the renewed public agitation against the

17 The figures are obtained from the Annual Report on the Administration of the Straits Settlements, for the relevant years. N a m e of publisher and place is not supplied. 18 Straits Settlements, Annual Report on the Administration of the Straits Settlements, 1860-1861, p. 28. N a m e of publisher and place is not supplied. 10 J. Geoghegan, Note on Emigration from India, (Calcutta: Government Press, 1873), p. 64.

47 indenture system, the government eventually banned Indian indentured immigrants in June, 1910, in the Malay States and in December the same year in the Straits Settlements. 20 During the three decades prior to the imposition of the ban, the number of identured immigrants generally oscillated within the range of 1,500-5,500 per year, without any definite sign of a continuous upward trend. At no time did indentured immigrants form a substantial proportion of the total number of Indians entering Malaya, remaining generally below 15 per cent. Kangany-Recruited

Immigration

It appears that by the 1860's the kangany system was introduced by plantation owners who preferred to send their own agent or kangany to India to recruit laborers for these estates. 21 The kangany, usually a laborer already employed in the estate, undertook to recruit agricultural workers from his village in India in return for a certain fee from his employer. But he advanced money to defray the expenses incurred by the recruits, who were willing to come but too poor to finance their own passage, and recovered the amount from their monthly wages. In most cases the first month's wage was not sufficient to settle the debt completely so that the immigrants became the kangany's debtors from the very beginning, with the attendant ill effects of "squeezing" or exploitation. Such immigrants, unlike the indentured ones, were legally free and not bound by any contract to serve their employer for a definite period, though they had to sign a promisory note for the advances made to them. Sometimes the expenses of the immigrants' journey were paid by the employer through the kangany, and in practice the immigrants had to work for the employer as long as the debt remained unsettled. Except for complying with certain regulations governing labor conditions, the kangany system was almost free from any restrictions until 1884 when kangany recruiters were required to be licensed. 22 With the rapid expansion of the rubber industry at the turn of the century, the kangany system became popular during its last few years of existence. In 1899 the number of kangany-recmited immigrants amounted to 2,446 or 12.8 per

20 Straits Settlements and Federated Malay States, Report on Indian Immigration, 1910, (Singapore: Government Press, 1912), p. 503. 21 J. Geoghegan, op. cit. p. 63. 22 N. E. Marjoribanks and A. K. G. Ahmad Tambi Marakkaya, Report on Indian Labour Emigration to Ceylon and Malaya, (Madras: Government Press, 1917), p. 28.

48 cent of the total Indian immigrants; by 1907 the figure had risen to 26,948 or 43.4 per cent. In 1908 the system ceased to exist, having been considerably modified and transformed into the system of recruited immigration. Assisted

Immigration

In the first few years of the present century the supply of immigrant labor was lagging far behind the demand in the rapidly expanding rubber industry, resulting in irregular practices such as 'crimping' of laborers whether free or indentured. 2 ' 1 T o solve the unsatisfactory labor situation and to encourage Indian immigration, the Government passed the Tamil Immigration Fund Ordinance of 1907 by which the Indian Immigration Committee was constituted to manage a fund, the Indian Immigration Fund, to be compulsorily contributed to by employers of Indian labor and to be utilized solely for financing the importation of Indian laborers. 24 T h e main functions of the committee were to advise the government on matters concerning Indian labor and to regulate the flow of assisted immigrants according to the needs of the country by varying the number of recruiting licenses and the amount of recruiting allowance or subsidy. Under the regulation and supervision of the committee, immigration evolved into two distinct types—recruited and non-recruited. Except in the first few years when professional recruiters were involved, the recruiting of assisted immigrants was performed through licensed kanganies under strict Government control. 2 "' The recruiters received a fee and sometimes even their passage fares from the employers who later claimed back recruiting allowances f r o m the fund. As for the immigrants, almost all their expenses for the journey f r o m India to the place of work in Malaya were met by the fund. These immigrants, in contrast with the kangany-ve.cvu\t&d or indentured immigrants, were therefore brought to Malaya free from any debt and free to change their jobs subject to one month's notice only. "Non-recruited assisted immigrants" were those who received free passages to Malaya on presenting themselves before the Malayan Emigration Commissioner at Avedi or Negapatam. On arrival in Malaya they and their families or dependents were provided with free transport and other

23

Straits Settlements and Federated Malay States, Report on Indian Immigration, 1907, (Singapore: Government Press, 1909). p. 16. 24 J. Norman Parmer, op. cit., p. 39. 25 S. Nanjundan, Indians in Malayan Economy, (New Delhi: Indian Government Press, 1950), p. 23.

49 facilities to enable them to reach their place of employment. In the inaugural year 1908 about 22,000 Indian immigrants took advantage of the free passages and other benefits offered by the new system. This number approached 40 per cent of the total Indian immigrants that came into the country. T w o years later the figure rose to about 60,000—or 72 per cent—mainly on account of the considerable increase in the demand for labor in the rubber planting industry which was experiencing a period of prosperity and rapid growth. 2 " The rise continued until 1914 when the First W o r l d War put a complete stop to immigration for about six months commencing from August 6 of the same year. The number soon resumed at slightly below pre-war levels but was reduced again to the record low level of 15,000 in 1921 by a local slump in the rubber industry.27 Thereafter it remained moderately low for a couple of years and recovered during the second half of the nineteen twenties, with the highest figure about 150,000 in 1926. During the world depression assisted immigration was suspended on August 6, 1930; only a small number of non-recruited laborers and their dependents who wished to join their families in Malaya were assisted. Assisted immigration, mainly in the form of non-recruited, resumed in M a y , 1934, and came to a final end with the complete ban on the emigration of unskilled labor imposed by the Indian government on June 15, 1938.2S Despite the fluctuations in the total number of assisted immigrants, the recruited class maintained its dominance, generally above 70 per cent throughout the period prior to 1931. During and after the world depression the position was just the reverse, with the non-recruited class comprising at least 90 per cent. Independent

Immigration

T h e movement of independent immigrants dated back to ancient times and prevailed for the longest period, remaining free from any government control throughout the pre-World-War-II years. Such immigrants normally came on their own initiative and by their own financial means or arrange-

26 Straits Settlements, Annual Report of the Straits Settlements, 1910, (Singapore: Government Press, 1912), p. 485. 27 Straits Settlements, and Federated Malay States, Report of the Labour Department, 1921, (Singapore: Government Press), pp. 670-671. 28 Malaya, Report of the Labour Department 1938, (Singapore: Government Press, 1940), p. 17.

50 ments, though some had friends and relatives in Malaya with whose assistance they were able to make all the necessary preparations for their journey and employment. 29 They belonged to a wide range of occupational groups —traders, merchants, shopkeepers, money-lenders, clerks, artisans and many others—all attracted by good commercial and employment opportunities. The years following the world depression witnessed an increasing proportion of laborers coming in as independent immigrants, mainly to avoid the one week's detention at the quarantine camp. 30 However, this form of immigration ceased to exist from June 15, 1938, when the Indian government's ban on the emigration of unskilled laborers to Malaya was imposed. 31 It may be recalled that at this time too the other forms of Indian immigration had ceased to exist so that the only group of Indians to continue coming into the country after this date were independent immigrants other than the laboring class. Their movement was for the first time completely stopped by the outbreak of war on the eighth of December, 1941, and it resumed on a minor scale during the immediate postwar years. Since August 1, 1953, independent immigrants have been rigidly controlled by the Immigration Ordinance of 1953 and its subsequent amendment in 1959. A detailed analysis of this ordinance and the amendment has already been presented in the preceding section on Chinese migration. The figures for independent immigrants indicate a very gradual upward trend in the annual volume, without any apparent pronounced fluctuations such as were experienced by assisted immigrants. In general the annual inflow oscillated slightly below 20,000 during the nineteenth century, below 30,000 during 1900-1926, and below 40,000 during 1926-1933, with the highest about 68,000, in 1937. The proportion of independent immigrants to total immigrants amounted to more than 80 per cent during the nineteenth century, but was progressively reduced during the first three decades of the present century by the popularity of fcangany-recruiting up to 1907 and subsequently by the success of assisted immigration. The rise in the proportion to almost pre-1900 levels in the 1930's was caused partly by the severe drop in the number of assisted immigrants and partly by additional Indians coming in as independent instead of as assisted immigrants. 29

S. Nanjundan, op. cit., p. 25. Malaya, Report of the Labour Press, 1940), p. 12. 31 Ibid., p. 15. 30

Department,

1938, (Singapore: Government

51 Overall Indian

Migration

Table 4.2 depicts the long-term trends in Indian migration irrespective of types. During the last two decades of the nineteenth century Indian immigration rose steadily in the first few years to 22,000 in 1886 and thereafter oscillated below this level until the end of the century. The initial rise and sustained inflow may be attributed to the continuous demand for immigrant labor in expanding public works and in prospering agricultural enterprises. The slight oscillations in the yearly inflow were generated by temporary factors such as bad harvests, famines and epidemic diseases in India and minor economic slumps and booms in Malaya. The annual outflow, consisting mainly of persons on brief visits home or returning permanently after termination of employment, was never greater than the annual inflow so that a net gain for Malaya was always recorded in the nineteenth century. The first three decades of the present century were characterized by a high volume of Indian migration, with, however, rather violent fluctuations in the annual movements. The setting u p of new rubber plantations and the operation of those already in existence necessitated a large and continuous supply of labor, which was met by the immigration of Indians under the regulation and assistance of the Indian Immigration Committee. The annual fluctuations were primarily caused by short-term movements in the level of employment in the rubber industry arising from changes in prices and output of rubber as determined by world demand. The first setback occurred during World War I when the drop in rubber export resulted in a reduction of about 50 per cent in the number of immigrants and in a net deficit of about 12,000 in 1914. The second setback was during the local slump in 1921 when a deficit of about 16,000 was recorded, and as the slump continued the surplus in the next few years continued to be relatively low. The net deficit of about 28,000 in 1928 was apparently due to the new passport regulations that came into force with the new immigration ordinance. The worst years were during the world depression when the number of immigrants was drastically reduced to pre1900 levels and thousands of unemployed Indians were repatriated to India. The net deficit for the years 1 9 3 0 - 1 9 3 3 amounted to no less than 243,000. After 1933 the position recovered somewhat but the four years before the Japanese occupation again recorded substantial net losses as a result of the Indian government's prohibition on the emigration of unskilled labor in 1938. The postwar years continued to show a deficit in Indian immigrants,

TABLE 4.2

ANNUAL INDIAN IMMIGRANTS AND EMIGRANTS, 1880-1962 Year

Immigrants Emigrants

Net Migrants

1880

5,053

3,812

1,241

1881 1882 1883

6,807 9,937

5,269 5,947 9,041 10,749

1,538 3,990

1884

10,605 16,081

1885 1886 1887

21,510 20,308 17,202

1888 1889

20,813 18,206

1890

18,473 30,182 18,421

1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899

18,220 14,956 16,005 20,150 20,599 19,026 19,920

13,417 18,105 12,596 13,190 14,099 15,276 23,912 17,722 14,044 13,537

1,564 5,332 8,093 2,203 4,606 7,623 4,107 3,197 6,270 699 4,176 1,419

12,360 12,977 14,280 11,500 19,766

3,645 7,173 6,319

11,251 16,204

27,278 12,055 2,059 4,198 11,151

7,526 154

1900

38,529

1901 1902

28,259 20,242

1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909

22,030 30,701 39,539 52,041 62,130 54,522 49,817

19,550 19,754 21,879 30,522 30,920 31,374

23,602 18,443

1910 1911 1912

83,723 108,471 106,928 118,583

39,080 48,103

44,643 60,368 43,043

1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919

51,217 75,323 95,566 90,077 65,291 101,433

18,183 17,832

63,885 70,090 63,073 50,320 54,479 57,583 52,132 46,767

19,785 30,162 31,608

48,493 -11,856 25,003 41,087 32,494 13,159 54,666

Emigrants

Net

Year

Immigrants

1920 1821 1922

95,220

55,481

39,739

45,673 58,674

61,551

-15,878

1923

49,502

45,733 42,778

12,941 6,724

1924

55,526 90,708

Migrants

37,326 43,144 65,786 93,269

18,200 109,009 64,357

91,430 76,854

-27,675 37,743

1925 1926 1827 1928 1929

174,795 157,626 63,755 114,597

1930 1931 1932 1933 1934

70,317 20,374 18,637 20,242 89,584

1935 1936 1937 1938 1939

66,350 45,706 123,732 44,839 23,961

42,724

1940 1941

44,177 41,088

51,772 50,283

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953

43,614 23,925 31,770 29,325 50,678 65,745 63,746 41,524

54,856 24,189 48,033

7,595 - 9,195 -11,242 264 -16,263

21,805 44,583 44,624 38,337 46,041

7,520 6,095 21,121 25,409 - 4,517

53,397

53,431

61,451 58,743 55,656 58,512 56,147 59,268 59,103

57,178

+

34 4,273

59,294 64,697

-

57,494 64,616 66,317 65,804

551 9,041 1,018

-

8,469 7,049

-

6,701

1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962

47,564

152,231

-81,914

103,090 85,051

-82,356 -66,414

32,738 28,407 38,869

-12,496

40,557 45,167 76,199

61,177 27,481 5,149 78,565 -31,360 -18,763

Sources: Annual Reports on Indian Immigration, 1 8 8 0 - 1 9 1 1 , Straits Settlements and Federated Malay States, Annual Reports ol the Labour Department, 1 9 1 2 - 1 9 3 8 , Straits Settlements and Federated Malay States, and Malayan Statistics Monthly Digest, 1 9 4 0 - 1 9 6 2 , Singapore. Note: The figures for 1940-1962 refer to total arrivals and departments by air, sea and land. Figures for 1 9 4 2 - 1 9 4 6 are not available.

53

all belonging to the independent type of immigrants, as inward movement was strictly controlled and as more Indians, who were prevented by the war from returning, were emigrating back to their mother land.

III. M a l a y Migration

Contacts between the Malay Peninsula and the numerous islands in the Indonesian Archipelago date back to ancient times. The earliest recorded contacts were with the Srivijaya Empire—600-1000 A.D.—the capital of which was situated at Palembang in south Sumatra. Since then there has been a continuous stream of traders, settlers, laborers, and others from various parts of the Archipelago to Singapore/Malaya. While the main features of Chinese and Indian immigration during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries stand out quite clearly, Indonesian immigration in the same period is less easy to detect and analyse owing largely to the paucity of statistical data and official departmental reports. There is some evidence of Indonesian traders, planters and laborers being

54 engaged in various kinds of employment in the late 1890's. 32 Of the two types of immigration—the free and independent type and the indentured category—more is known about the latter. The movement of Indonesian indentured immigrants into the country was governed by regulations of the government of the Netherlands Indies concerning emigration. In 1887 the Netherlands Indies government prohibited the emigration of skilled and unskilled Javanese labor for work outside the country. But it appeared that "in special cases and for important reasons, the Governor General could lift the prohibition on condition that the recruitment always took place in Java and Madura." 3 3 Permission was at times granted to emigrants to the Straits Settlements and other parts of Malaya. In 1909 the Netherlands Indies Labour Protection Enactment came into force; its two-fold aim was to regulate the importation of Indonesian indentured labor into Malaya and to protect Indonesian workers from maltreatment and exploitation. 34 The enactment stipulated certain working and living conditions such as the maximum duration of a contract, wages, conditions of work, etc. The original contracts were in Dutch and signed in the Netherlands Indies. Indonesian indentured immigration outlived Chinese or Indian indentured immigration by a considerable number of years partly because of the preference of the Dutch authorities for this system and partly because the relatively small numbers involved meant that abuses received little or no publicity. At the request of the Dutch authorities in 1927 and after some negotiations, Indonesian indentured immigration into Malaya was finally abolished in 1932 when the Netherlands Indies Labour Protection Enactment of 1909 was abrogated.3"' Figures for the annual number of Indonesian indentured immigrants are not available, but judging from the relatively small number employed at any one time, 30 the yearly volume of inflow was undoubtedly much lower than that of Chinese or Indian indentured immigrants. No government machinery was instituted to organize and promote Indonesian immigration as a whole though some European planters and British officials were rather keen to encourage this kind of immigration. 37 32

Norman Parmer, op. cit., p. 108. Proceedings of the 24th Session of the National 1937), pp. 57-58. 34 R. N. Jackson, op. cit., p. 127. 35 Norman Parmer, op. cit., p. 108. 36 Tungku Shamsul Bahrin, op. cit., pp. 56-61. 37 R. N. Jackson, op. cit., p. 127. 33

Labour

Conference,

(Geneva,

55 TABLE 4 . 3 A N N U A L M A L A Y A R R I V A L S A N D D E P A R T U R E S TO T H E N E T H E R L A N D S EAST I N D I E S ,

1923-1940

Year

Arrivals

Departures

S u r p l u s or Deficit

1923

44,669

43,653

1924

54,809

55,193

1,106 -384

1925

81,956 85,691

81,830

126

1926

79,120

1927

71,151

71,250

6,571 -99

1928 1929

61,513

61,249

264

64,658

57,716

6,942

1930

53,453 35,727

54,634 39,293

-1,181

1931 1932

35,283 34,842

34,972

311

32,922

1,920

33,445 30,581

29,178

4,267

27,586

2,995

35,637 62,312

32,234 52,209

10,103

38,446 31,203

37,094

1,352

1939

31,295

-92

1940

30,528

27,413

3,115

1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

S o u r c e : Annual

Report

of the

Statistical

Office,

-3,566

3,403

Straits Settlements.

The relatively low magnitude of overall Indonesian migration may perhaps be deduced from the total arrival and departure figures by sea and air to and from Indonesia given in Table 4.3. In most years there was a net gain for Malaya of about 2,000, which is very low in comparison with the corresponding figures for the Chinese or the Indians. Indonesian immigration was under the regulation of the Aliens Ordinance during the immediate postwar years, and has been rigidly controlled by the Immigration Ordinance of 1953 since that year. It should be emphasized that because of racial, religious and cultural similarities, the Indonesian immigrants mix and intermarry freely with the indigenous Malays. This process of assimilation has been in operation all the time so that the distinction between the two groups is becoming less clear, and hence both are usually referred to as Malays.

5 CHANGING POPULATION STRUCTURE The population statistics in Singapore are adequate for the purpose of tracing the evolution of the population structure from almost the very beginning of the demographic history of the country. Throughout the major part of the period under consideration, migration played a dominant role in determining the nature and changes of the population structure. The diversity of the race composition, the persistent disproportionate ratio between the sexes, and the abnormal age structure with its characteristic bulge at the working ages are all the results of migration. It was only after the outbreak of World War II in 1941 when the volume of migration became negligible that fertility replaces migration as the principal influencing factor; this leads to a gradual normalizing of the sex composition and the age structure, but the race composition remains heterogeneous.

I. Race Composition In examining the race composition we have followed the common practice of grouping the races into four major components, viz. Chinese, Malays, Indians and Other Races. Admittedly this four-fold division is not absolutely perfect but it is fairly satisfactory for purposes of studying the demographic characteristics of the major races in Singapore. The changes in the race composition at certain selected censuses are shown in Table 5.1; information on race and sex were the only two items collected in the censuses conducted before 1871. Singapore has never had a native population in the true sense of the word, since the three main races—Chinese, Malays and Indians—are all immigrants. Throughout the demographic history these three races make up the bulk of the total population; their combined proportion has always amounted to not less than 96 per cent. The absolute number for each of the races showed an uninterrupted upward trend; except in 1860 when the Malays recorded a decrease as compared with that of 1849. As mentioned earlier in Chapter Two, there is, however, some reason to believe that the

57 TABLE 5.1

DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY RACE, 1824-1965 Year

Chinese

Malays

1824 1830 1836 1840 1849 1860 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1947 1957 1965

3,317 6,555 13,749 17,704 27,988 50,043 54,572 86,766 121,908 164,041 219,577 315,151 418,640 729,473 1,090,595 1,396,500

6,431 7,640 12,538 13,200 17,039 16,202 26,141 33,012 35,956 35,988 41,806 53,595 65,014 113,803 197,060 266,600

1824 1830 1836 1840 1849 1860 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1947 1957 1965

31.0 39.4 45.9 50.0 52.9 61.2 57.6 63.0 67.1 72.1 72.4 75.3 75.1 77.8 75.4 74.9

60.2 45.9 41.7 37.3 32.2 19.8 27.6 24.0 19.7 15.8 13.8 12.8 11.7 12.1 13.6 14.3

Indians

Other R a c e s

Total

756 1,913 2,932 3,375 6,284 12,973 10,313 12,086 16,009 17,047 27,755 32,314 50,811 68,967 124,084 153,700

179 526 765 1,110 1,580 2,516 3,790 5,858 7,727 9.768 14,183 17,298 23,280 25,901 34,190 48,100

10,683 16,634 29,984 35,389 52,891 81,734 94,816 137,722 181,602 226,842 303,321 418,358 557,745 938,144 1,445,929 1,864,900

7.1 11.5 9.9 9.5 11.9 15.9 10.9 8.8 8.8 7.8 9.2 7.7 9.1 7.4 8.6 8.2

1.7 3.2 2.6 3.1 3.0 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.2 4.2 2.8 2.4 2.6

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Number

Percentage

1860 Census was unreliable and that its results are of little use for purposes of comparison. One interesting feature of the table is the less known fact that in the first two decades or so, the Malays were the dominant race in Singapore. By 1836 the Malays with a total of 12,497 were numerically outnumbered by the Chinese whose total was 13,749, and since then the population has remained predominantly Chinese in composition. The proportion of Malays continued to decrease steadily from 6 0 per cent in 1824 to the minimum of

58 12 per cent in 1931, while the proportion of Chinese rose from 31 per cent in 1824 to the maximum of 78 per cent in 1947. The contrary movements in the proportions of these two races occurred primarily in the nineteenth century. In the present century the percentages have remained stationary, the Malay percentage between 12 and 16 per cent and the Chinese between 72 and 78 per cent. The Indians have by comparison maintained a much more stable proportion of the total population during the larger part of the period, the percentage seldom deviating from between 7 and 9 per cent. As for the Other Races, the proportion on no occasion exceeded 5 per cent over the last 140 years. The diversity of races tends to produce problems of far-reaching effects on the political, economic and social framework of the country. T o the demographer this racial diversity offers interesting contrasts and vast scope for research. The races are known to differ in the nature and intensity of migration—as seen in the previous chapter—sex composition, age structure, levels of fertility and mortality, and structure of the labor force.

II. Sex Composition In a country where migration has been the dominant factor of population growth one can expect a predominance of males over females in the population. This is true in the case of Singapore. In the course of time a slow movement towards a more balanced sex ratio occurred first as the proportion of female immigrants increased, then as the volume of natural increase became larger, and latterly as the flow of migration diminished to a negligible trickle. At present the sex ratio of the comparatively settled population is fairly normal with a slight excess of males over females. In Table 5.2, which shows the trend in the sex ratio, three phases may be distinguished. First, from 1824 to 1860 the general movement of the sex ratio was towards greater disparity. This may be attributed to the declining proportion of the more settled Malay population which has a relatively balanced sex ratio, and to an increase in the proportion of Chinese and Indians through an influx of male immigrants from China and the Indian sub-continent. Second, between 1860 and the end of the century the sex ratio was stationary at around 3,100 males per thousand females. Third, in the present century a continuous movement of the sex ratio towards parity may be observed. The change between 1901 and 1921 was caused solely by an increasing proportion of women among new immigrants, mostly wives of immigrant settlers who had developed an increasing tendency to settle permanently in the country; for the period 1921 to 1941 the change may be

59 TABLE 5 . 2

DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY SEX, 1824-1965 (Sex R a t i o : M a l e s p e r 1 , 0 0 0 f e m a l e s )

Year

Male

1824

7,106 12,213

1830

Female

Sex R a t i o

3,577

1,987 2,762

1836

22,755

4,421 7,229

1849

42,107

10,784

1860 1871

70,122

11,612

3,905 6,039

72,183

22,633

3,189

1881 1891

104,031

33,691

3,088

138,452

43,150

3,209

1901

169,243

57,599

2,938

1911

215,489

87,832

2,453

1921

280,918

137,440

2,044

1931 1947

352,167

205,578

1,713

514,963

423,181

1,217

1957

762,760

1,117

1965

967,500

683,169 897,400

3,148

1,078

attributed to a larger proportion of female immigrants as well as to the growing volume of natural increase. By far the most important cause was the official policy in the late thirties of making "every endeavour to improve the sex ratio among immigrants by means of the Indian Immigration Committee and the Aliens Ordinance of 1933 whereby women were admitted free of quota restrictions until 1938." 1 From 1941 onwards immigration was no longer significant, and the improvement in the sex ratio is attributable to natural increase. Sex Ratio By Race The data in Table 5.3 reveal a common feature in that throughout the whole period there has been an excess of males over females for every race. What is more significant is the fact that while the Malay ratio has remained throughout at a level indicating only slight excess of males over females, the Chinese and Indian ratios have been extremely abnormal and have tended to move towards normality rather rapidly. In the postwar period the Chinese ratio dipped to a level which is even more normal than the Malay ratio. On the other hand, the abnormality of the Indian sex ratio still persists to the present day when there are about two men to every woman.

1

M. V. Del Tufo, op. cit., p. 33.

60 TABLE 5.3

SEX RATIO OF THREE MAIN RACES, 1824-1965 (Males p e r 1,000 females) Year

Chinese

Malays

Indians

1824 1830 1836 1849 1860 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1947 1957 1965

8,188 11,275 14,642 11,500 14,407 6,174 5,112 4,680 3,871 2,790 2,123 1,656 1,132 1,039 1,022

1,058 1,141 1,168 1,421 1,672 1,267 1,281 1,383 1,279 1,172 1,230 1,161 1,208 1,101 1,054

5,873 10,387 9,580 6,499 8,504 4,294 3,943 4,216 4,129 4,914 5,021 5,372 2,998 2,257 1,764

As seen in the previous chapter, a feature of Chinese immigration in the early nineteenth century is that for a long time the immigrants did not bring their women folk with them. There were a number of contributing causes. Being only temporary residents the Chinese immigrants preferred to leave their wives and children in China; the majority of them could not afford to bring their families; the authorities in China, though lax in preventing the emigration of males, took precautions to discourage women from going overseas in order to maintain a strong hold on the overseas Chinese and to ensure remittances from them. 2 There is reason to believe that the women enumerated in the early censuses did not come direct from China but were mixed-blood Malacca Baba women. Referring to the year 1837, C.B. Buckley wrote, "Up to this time, no Chinese women had come to Singapore from China, and the newspapers said that, in fact, only two genuine Chinese women were, or at any time had been in the place, and they were two small-footed ladies who had been, some years before, exhibited in England." 3 At this time the Chinese sex ratio was 15,000 males per thousand females.

2

Victor Purcell, The Chinese in Southeast Asia, (London: Oxford University Press, 1951), p. 305. 3 C.B. Buckley, An Anecdotal History of Old Times in Singapore, (Singapore: Fraserand Neave Ltd., 1902), p. 320.

61 As the ban on female emigration was lifted in China and as the Chinese community in Singapore assumed a more settled nature, an increasing number of women came. The result was gradual normalizing of the sex ratio. From the mid-1930's the movement of the Chinese ratio towards parity was accelerated by the increasing volume of natural increase and by the government policy of encouraging female immigration through the Aliens Ordinance of 1933 whereby women were admitted free of quota restriction. The flow of migration dropped after the outbreak of war in 1941 and in the postwar years, but the high rate of natural increase continued the process of normalising the ratio. In 1947 the ratio was 1,132 and by 1965 it fell further to the level of 1,022 males per thousand females. Although the Malays include some immigrant elements they have constituted a predominantly settled community, and are therefore in a different position from the Chinese or the Indians. They have at no time exhibited the great excess of males which characterised the other two communities; their sex ratio remained constantly normal between the range of 1,060 and 1,670 males per thousand females. Essentially, this fairly balanced sex ratio has been affected only to a limited extent by immigration. As in the case of the Chinese, the practice among the Indian community has been for the men of working age to migrate into Singapore in search of employment and trade, leaving behind their wives and children in India. Until very recently this practice persisted because the Indians have a lesser tendency to settle permanently. In this lies the explanation for the fact that while the Chinese sex ratio was more abnormal compared with the Indian ratio in the nineteenth century, it is now much more normal. Sex Ratio By Broad Age Group Another important aspect of the study of the sex composition is the changes that have occurred in broad age groups as shown in Table 5.4. In all years the sex ratio in the 0—4 age group is the most normal, and over the TABLE 5 . 4

SEX RATIO BY BROAD AGE GROUP, 1871-1962 (Males per 1 , 0 0 0 f e m a l e s )

Age Group

1871

1881

1891

1901

1921

1931

1947

1957

1962

943

946

1,047

1,132

1,068

1,053

1,136

1,158

1,038 1,202

1,029

5-14

1,105 1,702

1,069

1,091

1,208

1,071

1,062

15-19

3,369

3,227 \

3,291

2,427

2,045

2,998

1,072

30-59

5,379

4,855 }

2,770

2,158

6 0 & Over

4,145

4,875 J

3,900 1,683

1,468

1,203

1,243 953

1,089 1,280

0-4

4,089

786

1,237 858

62 period the least changes were recorded. In this age group the sex ratio at birth and the differential child mortality between the sexes are the two factors that determine the sex ratio. There are usually more male babies than female babies born, about 1 , 0 6 0 boys to every 1 , 0 0 0 girls, but this is subsequently counter-balanced by a heavier mortality among the male children. T h e net effect is still a slight excess of males over females in this age group. However, the sex ratio for the 0 - 4 group is probably affected by the greater under-enumeration of girls than boys at the censuses. In spite of higher infant mortality among male babies, the sex ratio of children below one at the 1 9 5 7 Census is 1 , 0 6 8 males per thousand females as against the sex ratio of 1,061 at birth. In the next age group the sex ratio is slightly less normal though some improvement is noticeable in the postwar years. In spite of the exposure of the boys to heavier mortality since birth the sex ratio was more often than not higher than that at birth, which suggests that there were more boys than girls immigrating in these young ages. The sex ratio in the next two higher age groups is by comparison very abnormal, which reflects the large extent to which migration affected the composition of the population at working ages. T h e change in the ratio in these age groups was also very pronounced, from 3 , 3 6 9 in the 1 5 - 2 9 age group and 5 , 3 7 9 in the 3 0 - 5 9 age group in 1871 to 1,072 and 1,237 respectively in 1962. In the last age group the ratio is influenced partly by migration and partly by differential mortality between the sexes. Thus despite heavier mortality among males than among females, there was an excess of males over females during the years 1 8 7 1 - 1 9 3 1 , but in the postwar years there were fewer males than females, a reflection of the settled character of the population. III. Age Structure In studying the age structure of the population in Singapore we can only commence from 1871 when age statistics were made available in the first proper census conducted in that year. The evolution of the age structure over the years 1871—1962 is seen in Table 5.5 in terms of five broad age groups. T h e 1 9 6 2 figures are obtained from the results of estimating the 1962 population by quinary age group from age 0 to 85 and over. 4 Two * The technique of computing this estimate is based on that furnished in United Nations, Manual HI: Methods for Population Projections by Sex and Age. S T / S O A / Series A, Population Studies No. 25, 1956, pp. 7 - 1 0 .

63 general features stand out clearly. First, as a result of the rapid overall population growth the number in almost all the age groups recorded an increase in these years, the rate of growth being greatest in the youngest group and least in the oldest. Second, the population structure experienced a gradual but continuous shift from a predominantly "middle-age" structure to a relatively "young" one as shown by the changes in the proportionate distribution among the various age groups. The substantial increase in the proportion of population in the youngest group below age 5 is the result of the rising crude birth rate and, to a limited extent, of the relatively faster decline in mortality at these infant years. However, it should also be noted that the number of children in this age group in the censuses taken in 1947 and before was affected by the Chinese method of reckoning ages, which tends to make the number deficient. 5 The increase in the proportion was not so pronounced in the second age group which consists of children in the school-going age. In terms of fertility, employment and migration, the third age group 15-29 constitutes the important and active section of the population, while the next group 3 0 - 5 9 refers more to mature persons of working age and those past the prime of their reproductive life. The reductions in the proportion in these two groups are the result of the two-fold effect of the growing proportionate importance at the young age groups and the continuous diminution of immigration to a negligible level. No significant changes were experienced by the oldest age group 60 and over, the proportion fluctuating around the neighbourhood of 4 per cent. The enumerated population at ages 60 and above is not very reliable on account of the tendency on the part of old people to overstate their ages. 6 In general the implication underlying the changing population structure is that a smaller proportion of working-age persons would be bearing the burden of supporting an increasing proportion of young dependents. However, it should be mentioned that in the prewar years the young dependency problem was not necessarily light owing to the common prac-

5

See Y o u Poh Seng, "Errors in Age Reporting in Statistically Underdeveloped Countries (With Special Reference to the Chinese Population of Singapore)", Population Studies, Vol. XIII, N o . 2, November 1959, pp. 164-182. 6 See "Appendix: A Method of Testing and Correcting Age Overstatement at Old Ages Based on Stable Population Theory" of Saw Swee-Hock, "A Note on Errors in Chinese Age Statistics", Kajian Ekonomi Malaysia, Vol. 1, N o . 1, luly 1964, pp. 3 5 - 5 1 .

64 TABLE 5 . 5 D I S T R I B U T I O N OF P O P U L A T I O N B Y B R O A D AGE GROUP,

A g e Group

1871

1881

1891

1901

1947

1957

1962

4.8

7.3

8.7

12.5

27.2

17.6

25.6 98.5

58.9

48.6

114.5

264.7

302.4

222.8

354.4

140.7

95.9 183.1

246.8

366.7

486.4 395.8

75.9 3.7

161.0

203.4

320.5

404.8

23.5

23.6

33.7

55.3

473.4 74.7

216.2

411.3

554.6

938.3

1,445.9

1,732.7

1921

1931

1871-1962

Number ( t h o u s a n d s ) 0-4 5-14 15-29

12.7 38.5

15.4 46.9]

30-59

32.9

5 9 . 2 J-

6 0 & Over Total

2.8 91.7

155.2

9.0J 137.8

181.5

Percentage 0-4

5.2

5.3

4.8

5.8

6.6

8.8

12.2

18.3

17.5

13.8

11.2

9.7

11.8

14.3

17.3

24.5

28.1

5-14 15-29

42.0

34.0]

30-59

35.9

4 3 . 0 f-

6 0 & Over Total

3.0 100.0

85.5

6.5J 100.0

100.0

45.6

34.2

33.0

23.7 26.3

35.1

39.1

36.7

34.2

25.4 28.0

1.7

5.7

4.3

.36

3.8

27.3 4.3

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

22.8

tice among immigrants working in Singapore of contributing towards the support of their children in China and India. 7 The change in the age structure of each of the three major races is illustrated in Table 5.6 for the same five age groups. The shift in the proportion among the various age groups was essentially in the same direction for every race, a rise in the first two groups and a decline in the next two working-age groups. This common trend towards a younger population is attributed to increasing fertility to a peak level and thereafter the maintenance at or around this peak, coupled with the sustained reduction of immigration. The latter factor appears to be of significance in the case of the Chinese and Indians. It is instructive to examine in some detail the type of age structure that has been produced near the end of the period as a result of these changes. Perhaps the most satisfactory method of accomplishing this is to study the 1962 age pyramids presented in Chart 5.1. By 1962 the age pyramid of Singapore (All Races) is fairly smooth and normal with the numbers in the different quinary age groups decreasing regularly from the first year of life upwards; the bulge at the working ages no longer exists. The minor depression at ages 15-19, more pronounced in the female section, is the result 7

S a w S w e e - H o c k and R o n a l d Ma, "The E c o n o m i c Characteristics of the

t i o n o f S i n g a p o r e , 1 9 5 7 , " Malayan

Economic

Review,

V o l . V , N o . 1, p . 3 7 .

Popula-

65 TABLE

5.6

PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY BROM) AGE GROUP FOR THREE MAIN RACES, 1881-1962 1921

1947

1962

1881

1901

0-4

2.7

4.2

6.2

12.3

17.3

5-14

7.7

9.9

14.7

25.2

28.5

15-29

35.1

46.9

32.0

24.6

23.5

30-59

47.5

37.5

42.1

34.1

26.0

6.8

1.5

5.0

3.8

4.8

0-4

11.0

11.4

11.6

14.3

20.4

5-14

19.0

18.7

18.9

22.1

29.5

15-29

30.9

39.8

32.2

33.2

22.5

30-59

32.5

27.4

32.0

27.5

25.1

6.5

2.6

5.3

2.9

2.5

A g e Group

Chinese

6 0 & Over

Malays

6 0 & Over

Indians 4.7

5.0

4.3

8.9

16.5

5-14

10.3

11.2

9.3

13.7

22.7

15-29

35.6

50.3

44.1

32.0

18.1

30-59

44.0

32.1

39.2

43.5

39.8

5.3

1.4

3.1

1.9

2.8

0-4

6 0 & Over

of the low birth rate and the high infant mortality prevailing during the Japanese occupation. 8 Unlike that in other countries such as Germany, the age pyramid in Singapore was not distorted and depressed at the middle ages by the loss of life among service personnel. A more striking feature is the broad base at ages 0 - 1 4 consequent on the high birth rate recorded in the forties and early fifties, but this tendency towards a broader base has been retarded in the last few years by the recent rapid decline in the birth rate. Except for the common broad base and the slight depression at ages 1 5 - 1 9 , the age pyramids of the three races differ significantly on account of differential migration. It is known that decline in mortality has only slight effect on the proportion of persons in the different age groups.9 It is apparent that the Chinese age pyramid is by comparison the most normal, with 8 See Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths for the Years 1940-1947, (Singapore: Government Press, 1948), pp. 1 - 4 . 9 F o r a comprehensive discussion of this subject, see "Cause of Ageing of Populations: Declining Mortality or Declining Fertility?," Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 4, December 1954, pp. 3 4 - 3 8 .

66

no longer the characteristic middle-age bulge which existed a decade or so ago. The only trace of the influence of prewar migration may be noticed at the two male age groups between 45 and 54. The Malay age pyramid is a shade less normal than the Chinese pyramid in the sense that a small bulge at ages 30 to 45 has emerged; the only plausible explanation for this new development lies in net migration from Malaya into Singapore. TTie age pyramid of the Indians offers interesting and significant contrasts to those of the other two races. There is no doubt that the huge bulge at the working ages and the lop-sided nature of the pyramid between the male and the female sections are the two most distinctive features which are caused by the predominance of working-age male immigrants in the

67 prewar days, without any substantial female immigration such as subsequently happened in the case of the Chinese. Since large-scale emigration of adult males back to the Indian continent appears unlikely in the future, it would take many decades for these anomalous traits to disappear completely to give way to a normal age pyramid. Comparison with Other

Countries

In Table 5.7 is given a comparison of the age composition of Singapore with those of some selected countries. The population of Singapore is very young with a large proportion of children and a small proportion of old persons, which is a common characteristic of most countries experiencing a high rate of natural increase. In these countries the proportions of the population in the first two age groups are relatively large, generally above 16 per cent in the first age group and above 25 per cent in the 5 - 1 4 age group. The corresponding figures for Singapore are 18 per cent and 28 per cent respectively. On the other hand, these countries have a very small proportion of old persons aged 60 and over, generally not more than 6 per cent; in Singapore it is only 4 per cent. Some significant differences are to be seen in a comparison of the data for Singapore with those for the developed countries with a low rate of natural increase. In these countries, as typified by France and Sweden, children constitute only a small proportion of the total population, below 11 per cent in the 0—4 age group and below 21 per cent in the second age group. The contrast is even more striking in the case of the population aged 60 and over which forms more than 12 per cent in these countries as against the small proportion of 4 per cent in Singapore. From the economic point of view a more meaningful comparative analysis is perhaps in terms of three broad age groups, working-age group from 15-59, young dependents aged 0 - 1 4 , and old dependents aged 60 and over. Singapore in common with the group of developing countries recording a high rate of natural increase has a relatively low proportion of working-age population and a heavy dependency burden. The number of working-age persons accounts for slightly more than half of the total population in these countries and Singapore, while in the developed countries with a low rate of increase a much higher proportion, about threefifths, is in the working-age group. The persons in the dependent age group constitute slightly less than half the total population in the developing countries and about two-fifths in the developed countries. It is one of those demographic paradoxes that in countries like Singapore where the need to raise the level of living is greater and more urgent,

68 TABLE

5.7

PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY BROAD AGE GROUP IN SELECTED COUNTRIES Year

0-4

5-14

15-29

30-59

Ghana

1961

19.2

25.3

25.5

25.0

Venezuela

1961

17.8

27.0

25.6

25.6

4.6

Singapore

1962

17.5

28.1

22.8

27.3

4.3

Country

6 0 & Over 4.9

Pakistan

1961

17.4

27.1

23.7

25.8

6.0

Hong Kong

1961

16.8

25.4

18.7

34.0

5.1

Jamaica

1960

16.6

24.5

23.6

28.4

6.7

India

1961

16.5

24.5

26.8

27.8

4.8

Philippines

1960

16.1

28.8

26.7

23.1

4.3

Thailand

1960

16.1

27.0

26.6

25.5

4.6

U.A.R.

1960

15.9

26.8

22.6

28.6

6.1

U.S.A.

1960

11.3

19.8

19.4

36.2

13.2

Australia

1961

10.5

19.7

20.6

36.9

12.3

Greece

1961

9.4

17.2

24.6

36.6

12.2

Japan

1960

8.4

21.6

27.6

33.4

8.9

Czechoslovakia

1961

8.3

18.9

20.6

38.4

13.7 13.7

Hungary

1960

8.2

17.2

21.9

39.0

Switzerland

1960

8.1

15.4

22.8

38.6

15.1

West Germany

1961

8.1

13.9

22.0

39.4

16.4

Sweden

1960

6.7

15.2

20.0

40.8

17.3

Source: 1963 Demographic

Yearbook.

the working-age population engaged in the production of goods and services is smaller and the dependency burden is heavier. In Singapore the burden of child dependents is somewhat lightened by the practice of putting the children to work at an early age among poor families. But the contribution of an employed child to economic production is much less than that of an adult worker, and hence on balance the high proportion of children remains a factor tending to lower per capita output and income. Moreover, as compared with an ageing population with the same per capita income, the young population in Singapore would have to spend a relatively bigger share of its income in feeding and clothing the young, and hence a lower percentage of its income is available for capital investment. A close study of the table will show that the two groups of countries differ not only in the magnitude of the dependency problem but also in the nature of this problem. The heavy dependency burden in the countries undergoing a high rate of increase is in the main a problem of young dependents, while the relatively lighter dependency burden in the other countries enjoying a low rate of increase is primarily a problem of old dependents. The dependency burden facing countries like Singapore is closely

69 connected with the problem of providing education for the large school-age population and with the difficult task of creating sufficient employment opportunities for the increasing number of new entrants into the labor market. On the contrary, the problem of old dependents in Singapore is more or less non-existent. But in countries such as West Germany, Sweden and Hungary, the dependency burden is to a greater extent associated with the problem of old dependents, the prime concern being the provision of social security for the aged.

6 FERTILITY TRENDS AND DIFFERENTIALS A brief, general survey of fertility trends up to 1946 and a more thorough appraisal for the postwar period when comprehensive data are becoming available will be presented in this chapter. The complete absence of vital statistics makes it impossible to cover the period prior to 1878, and even then the information published during the first few decades after this period is grossly lacking in detail and reliability. The analysis of fertility differentials will be confined to the three main races who display marked differences explainable in terms of their divergent social, cultural and economic backgrounds. In view of the paucity of data no attempt is being made to work out any direct analysis of fertility differentials between income groups, educational levels, occupational or social classes, though an indirect matching of some of these variables may be presented. It should be stressed that some of the observations arrived at are by no means definitive and can probably be finally accepted or rejected only on the basis of further evidence from fertility surveys which have yet to be instituted in Singapore. I. Changes In Birth Rates, 1 8 7 8 - 1 9 6 5

For a general picture of fertility trends we should refer to Table 6.1 showing the annual average birth and the crude birth rates for quinary years from 1878 to 1965. 1 The figures highlight a steady rise in the birth rates without any major interruption from about 15 to 46 per thousand population during the span of about sixty years from 1878 to 1940. This was followed by a temporary decline to about 37 during the Japanese occupation period 1941—45, and thereafter a quick recovery and the maintenance of the rate well above the level of 40 in the postwar years. In the last couple of years there has been recorded a drop in the birth rate as 1

The population denominator adopted in the calculation of the rate refers to the average of the five mid-year populations in each given quinary period.

71 TABLE

6.1

ANNUAL AVERAGE BIRTHS AND CRUDE BIRTH RATES, 1878-1965 Quinary Period

Annual A v e r a g e Births

Crude Birth R a t e s

1878-80

835

6.5

1881-85

2,201

15.0

1886-90

2,770

16.4

1891-95

3,310

17.3

1896-00

3,835

17.1

1901-05

5,113

21.2

1906-10

6,051

22.3

1911-15

7,693

23.9

1916-20

9,819

26.5

1921-25

13,418

29.5

1926-30

18,991

34.3

1931-35

22,280

40.5

1936-40

31,643

45.9

1941-45

29,897

36.5

1946-50

43,738

44.8

1951-55

53,693

47.8

1956-60

61,877

41.0

1961-65

58,476

32.9

well as in the number of births, an exhaustive analysis of which will be presented in the next section. The continuous upward trend in the birth rates recorded during 18781940 from an initial low level seems to be in direct contrast to the experience of most European countries where the trend during the same period was predominantly downward from an initial high level.2 But, while the downward movement in these countries was the result of a genuine fall in fertility, the upward trend in Singapore was caused not so much by a rise in fertility as by a normalizing of the sex ratio and by a gradual improvement in the completeness of birth registration. These two reasons were repeatedly emphasized by the Registrar-General in his early Reports. 3 The 2

United Nations, Recent Trends in Fertility in Industrialized Countries, ST/SOA/ Series A, Population Studies N o . 29 ( N e w York: United Nations, 1958). 3 Straits Settlements, Annual Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths (Singapore: Government Printer). In the 1886 Report the Registrar-General stated, "I am still of opinion, however, that birth registration in this settlement is far from being as thorough as one would wish to see it, and that many, especially among the Chinese, omit to register the births of their children . . . either from ignorance or for the purpose of evading vaccination. We cannot, therefore, accept the figures above as being very accurate. Even making allowance for the disproportion known to exist between male and female . . . a high birth rate could certainly be shown if we had at hand the material wherewith to work the Ordinance properly."

72 jump from 6.5 in 1878-80 to 15.0 in 1881-85 was apparently due to incomplete registration during the three early experimental years of birth registration. However, it would seem that in the course of time the other factor began to exert a greater influence as may be seen in the 1930's when the rise in the birth rate was primarily caused by a normalizing of the sex ratio. As for the low birth rate recorded during the Japanese occupation, the explanation lies in the postponement of marriages and/or births due to the extremely unfavorable conditions then prevailing. Changes A mong Main Races In Table 6.2 is shown a comparative analysis of the birth rates for the three main races. It may be observed that the Chinese birth rates display a strong upward movement in the course of fifty-five years stretching from 1886 to 1940, rising steadily from 10.4 to the peak level of 48.8 in the immediate prewar quinary years. With the advent of the Japanese occupation the rate registered a sharp dip to slightly below the 40 level, but after the war it quickly attained its prewar level and remained somewhat stationary around the neighbourhood of 45 until 1955. In the next quinary years signs of a definite downward movement in the rate were evident. In contrast the nineteenth century did not witness any pronounced upward or downward movement in the Malay birth rates which seemed to have oscillated around the 30 level. In the beginning of the present century the rates rose sharply to near 40 and have remained above this point for TABLE 6 . 2

CRUDE BIRTH RATES FOR THE THREE MAIN RACES, 1886-1965 Period

Chinese

Malays

Indians

1886-90

10.4

16.6

1891-95 1896-00

12.6 13.4

33.5 33.8

15.5

1901-05

17.2

28.7 39.2

1906-10

42.9 40.3

20.4

1911-15 1916-20

18.5 21.8 25.1

37.5

1921-25

28.7

1926-30

35.0

40.4 42.2

1931-35

42.6

42.9

1936-40 1941-45

48.8

46.9 33.3

28.2

44.5

41.8 40.9

1946-50 1951-55

38.6 45.5 45.0 40.2

47.2

1956-60 1961-65

31.1

45.1

47.8

17.2 19.1 16.6 16.2 21.9 23.5 26.1 26.6

38.9 31.3

73 the best part of the last sixty years, except during the two periods 1916— 1920 and 1 9 4 1 - 4 5 . A fairly stationary position at 4 7 has been maintained by the Malay rates for the last fifteen years or so. Between 1878 and 1920 the Indian birth rates also showed no definite tendency towards an upward or downward trend, fluctuating in general between 15 and 20. In the next two decades the rates registered a continuous rise from 22 to 28, followed by a temporary drop during the Japanese occupation. The early postwar years witnessed a sharp rise to the peak of about 42, and thereafter the maintenance of the rate above 4 0 for the rest of the period. The slow increase in the Indian rates in the prewar days was in the main attributable to the persistently uneven sex ratio, while the relatively rapid increase in the Chinese rates was caused by the progressive normalization of the sex ratio. A comparative examination of the columns in Table 6.2 will show that the Malay birth rates have been the highest and the Indian rates the lowest, while the Chinese rates are somewhere in between the two. One hardly needs to emphasize that these differences in the crude rates do not necessarily reflect the real position regarding fertility differentials among these races. For one thing, we know that in the nineteenth century the rates were affected to some extent by the varying degree of completeness in birth registration among the races. The Registrar-General seemed to think that in the early days the Malays were on the whole less averse to birth registration while the Chinese, especially those who were better-off, were rather indifferent to having the births of their children registered. 4 The more important factor is of course the large variation in the sex composition of the three populations. The sex ratio of the settled Malay population has always been very even and hence the relatively higher Malay crude birth rates. In contrast, the lower Chinese and Indian rates predominating during the years prior to World War II may be attributed to the very abnormal sex ratio of these two immigrant populations. Moreover, the slight excess of the Chinese rates over the Indian rates was caused mainly by the more uneven sex ratio of the latter population. II. Changes in Postwar Fertility In Table 6.3 are set forth three different types of fertility indices which might throw some light on the course of fertility during the postwar period. The general fertility rate measures the number of births per 1,000 women

4 Straits Settlements, Annual Report on the Registration 1886-1889, (Singapore: Government Printer, 1890).

of Births

and

Deaths,

74 TABLE 6.3 FERTILITY INDICES, 1947-1965 Fertility Indices

1947

1952

1957

1962

1965

Crude Birth Rate General Fertility Rate Gross Reproduction Rate

45.9 199.3 3.176

45.4 187.5 3.210

42.7 199.2 3.234

34.0 166.6 2.585

29.9 142.9 2.330

in the reproductive age range of fifteen to forty-nine, while the gross reproduction rate indicates the number of female children that a woman will bear during the whole of her reproductive period, assuming that she lives through her child-bearing period. In calculating the latter rate the relatively small number of female births to women under fifteen and above forty-nine years has been included in the 1 5 - 1 9 age group and 4 5 - 4 9 age group respectively. T h e first point to be noted is the fairly constant crude birth rate prevailing until about 1 9 5 2 when a minor downward trend to about 4 3 in 1957 became apparent. An interesting question naturally arises as to whether the latter phenomenon marks the beginning of a shift in the level of fertility downwards. There is enough evidence to suggest that the drop in the crude rate, which attracted considerable attention at that time, was entirely engendered by a reduction in the proportion of women in the reproductive ages brought about partly by the entry of a relatively smaller number of women than usual into the reproductive age range. This smaller cohort of women, resulting from the low birth rate and higher infant mortality rate during the war years, would by 1957 consist of women within the ages of 13 to 16. This, coupled with the increasing proportion of women born after this cohort, has caused the ratio of women of reproductive age to the total population to be lowered from 2 3 . 0 per cent in 1947 to 21.7 per cent in 1957. That the level of fertility has not been reduced at all may be seen in the somewhat constant figures for the general fertility rate. On the contrary, if one examines the figures for the gross reproduction rate, one would see that the real course in fertility level is one of gentle upward trend towards 1957. The extremely high fertility prevailing in the postwar era up to 1957 or thereabouts is deeply embedded in the cultural and religious traditions of the people, not forgetting the part that can be played by economic factors. Although no specific field study has been instituted in the country, it is possible to single out among the many contributory factors the more important and obvious ones. First, as compared with regions of low fertility there was

75 in Singapore the interaction of the lower mean age at marriage of women, the higher marriage rate and the larger proportion ultimately married. Women are expected to marry early; marriage is universal; and celibacy finds little social acceptance among the people. Second, the average size of family was large, about 7 children, which was a manifestation of the tradition of desiring large families among practically all the races in Singapore. Among the many and varied factors favouring large families are the desire for male heirs, deep-rooted religious injunctions, and the Asian form of family organization and kinship. Last, the masses in general did not practice family limitation to such a significant extent as to influence the course of the fertility level. The idea of reducing the mortality rate through medical and public health measures has long been universally accepted, but it appears that the not unimportant notion of taking concrete steps to space out as well as limit the number of children ultimately produced was something new and revolutionary in the minds of the public at large. While the period prior to 1957 was dominated by a very high level of fertility that remained fairly stable, the period following was equally noteworthy for the sudden sharp drop in fertility level. As the crude birth rate continued to follow a downward path after 1957, there was still some doubt as to whether fertility had commenced to fall in view of the existence of the smaller cohort of women who had since entered he reproductive age range. In the beginning, partly because of the paucity of essential data, it was difficult to arrive at a satisfactory conclusion. However, sufficient evidence has accumulated in the last few years to show that fertility not only started to fall in 1957 but has also continued to do so without any break. This is underlined by the general fertility rate and the gross reproduction rate presented in Table 6.3, the latter figure being lowered by 27 per cent from 3.234 in 1957 to 2.330 in 1965. Two significant points concerning this new development require special mention. Bearing in mind the conditions prevailing at that time, the reduction experienced immediately after 1957 appears to have occurred sooner than one expected. In the second place, the decline of about 27 per cent within the short span of nine years is indeed so outstanding an occurrence that it deserves further investigation. In Malaya a reduction of 17 per cent in fertility was recorded during the tenyear period 1956—1965/' T h e age-specific fertility rates laid out in Table 6.4 enable us to evaluate the changes that have occurred in the various quinary age groups. These 5

Saw Swee-Hock, "Pattern of Fertility Decline in Malaya, 1956-1965," Kajian Ekonomi Malaysia, Vol. Ill, No. 1, June 1966, pp. 7-14.

76 rates are derived from the annual statistics on the number of live births by age of mother and census data or estimates on the female population by age. The rates represent the number of live-births per 1,000 women in each age group. Since only a very small number of births occur to women under fifteen and above forty-nine years of age, those below fifteen are included in the 15-19 age group and those above forty-nine in the 45-49 group. Before commenting on the post-1957 period, it may be useful to see what changes in the pattern of fertility were registered before 1957 even though no significant alteration to the overall level was experienced. One noticeable feature is the somewhat marked reduction in fertility recorded by women in the youngest age group 15-19; the trend towards later marriage has been an important influence. The other change of a less dramatic nature refers to the small rise experienced by women in the two age-groups 25-29 and 30-34. By and large these are minor shifts in the pattern and are comparatively less important than the new developments that have emerged since 1957. Briefly, the year 1958 witnessed a mild decline in fertility in most age groups except in the first and last groups. This gentle downward movement appears to have continued in most age groups in 1959 and became not only universal but more pronounced in 1960. Since then every age group has continued to register a pronounced fall in fertility. TABLE 6 . 4

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES, 1947-1965 Age of Mother Year

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

1947

101.8

314.1

333.8

196.3

83.3

10.6

1952

88.0

330.7

347.1

269.7 271.2

81.7

10.1

1957

78.0 78.2

302.5

354.5

289.4

193.5 194.8

81.3

11.8

298.0

347.0

284.6

187.5

79.3

12.7

78.1

289.8 271.0

335.3 322.9

274.8

187.8

12.0

266.3

176.0

75.0 72.3

307.9

248.0

164.7

66.9

233.3

158.1

65.6

9.3 9.2

1958 1959 1960

63.1

1961

57.9

1962

53.2

258.5 250.7

11.9

1963

47.8

247.4

295.4 295.2

233.1

157.7

68.6

8.6

1964

40.4

230.8

294.2

225.3

65.2

8.7

1965

38.8

206.2

282.2

217.4

152.8 143.2

57.6

8.4

A closer examination of Table 6.4 will show that the position varies considerably over the reproductive age range, each group beginning to record a reduction at different times and sustaining this decline at different speeds. After its minor decrease before 1957, fertility in the first age group

77 remained stationary for about three years and did not commence declining until 1960; since then the fall has been so spectacular that the rate in 1965 stands at about 50 percent below that in 1957. The second age group has been sustaining a continuous fall since about 1952, gaining momentum in recent years with the result that by 1965 the rate has undergone a reduction of 32 percent of that for 1957. The very impressive reduction recorded in the first age group and to some extent in the second age group was partly engendered by the rise in the average age of women at marriage which is reflected in the figures given below:

Year 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965

Average Age of Women All Status 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.3 24.7

at Marriage Spinster 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.0

The data are computed from all marriages solemnized and registered in Singapore under the Muslim Ordinance, 1957 and the Women's Charter, 1961; prior to the introduction of the latter ordinance on September 15. 1961 marriages were not completely registered. Under the Women's Charter the minimum age for marriage for both bride and groom was raised from 16 to 18 years, 6 and this explains the sharper rise in the average age at first marriage of brides (i.e., spinsters) in 1962. In 1966 the minimum age for marriage for Muslim girls was raised from age 15 to 16, and one can expect an impact in the direction of raising the average age at first marriage further in the future. 7 A continuous decline was recorded in the age group 2 5 - 2 9 from 1957 to 1965, but after the big drop in 1961 and 1962 the decline slackened towards the end of the period when the rate was about 20 per cent below

6 Singapore, Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths, Marriages and Persons for 1961, (Singapore: Government Printers, 1963). 7 The Straits Times October 9, 1966. Che Mawan Majid Khan, President of the Siglap Women's Association and wife of the Minister for Education, was reported to have commented on the new law, "Although it has been raised by only one year, I regard it as a revolutionary and important achievement because I sympathize with some of our children who in the past year were led into marriage by their parents while they were still 13, 14 or 15 years old."

78 that in 1957. The rate in the age group 30-34 started to decline rapidly as late as 1958, but by 1965 about 25 percent had been eliminated from the 1957 level. A downward trend in the two groups aged 35 to 44 became apparent in 1958 and by 1965 they had sustained a fall of about 26 percent and 25 percent respectively. Finally, the last age group appeared to have witnessed a mild rise up to 1958 and then began a fairly substantial drop until 1963, after which the rate declined very gently until 1965 when it was about 29 percent lower than that in 1957. The net effect of the above changes on the overall level of fertility may be best summarized by the data set out below: Year 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965

G.R.R. 3.231 3.234 3.122 3.048 2.853 2.706 2.586 2.580 2.478 2.330

% Decline 4-0.1

3.5 2.4 6.4 5.2 4.5 0.2 4.0 6.0

We can conclude that since 1957 there has been a continuous decline in fertility, and the most remarkable changes occurred in 1960 and in 1965. Changes Among Main Races

We shall now proceed a step further in our investigation by evaluating the changes in the levels and patterns of fertility encountered by the three main races in order to obtain a greater insight into the nature and causes underlying the recent spectacular decline in overall fertility. It is proposed to discuss first the changes in the level of fertility among the races. The gross reproduction rates included in Table 6.5 seem to indicate a movement in different directions in the fertility levels of the three races. The fertility of Chinese women stayed somewhat stationary until 1957 and thereafter declined very rapidly. In contrast, the fertility of Malay women followed an upward trend, gently at first and gathering momentum after 1957. As for the fertility of Indian women, the position has been one of steady and fairly marked decline over the years. One minor point to note in the case of the Malays is that while fertility as measured by the gross reproduction rate has risen, the crude birth rate has in fact registered a drop since 1957. This

79 opposite path followed by the crude rate was in the main caused by the reduction in the proportion of women in the reproductive ages to the total population. It suggests that in Singapore in particular the crude birth rate does produce quite misleading conclusions. TABLE 6.5 FERTILITY INDICES FOR THE THREE MAIN RACES, 1 9 4 7 - 1 9 . 5 Fertility Indices

1947

1952

1957

1962

1965

Crude Birth Rate General Fertility Rate Gross Reproduction Rate

46.1 194.6 3.175

45.3 190.9 3.205

Chinese 42.4 190.3 3.180

32.2 153.3 2.452

28.2 125.1 2.034

Crude Birth Rate General Fertility Rate Gross Reproduction Rate

48.1 200.7 2.813

47.1 199.6 2.880

Malays 47.3 223.4 3.059

46.2 235.6 3.361

41.3 201.4 3.134

Crude Birth Rate General Fertility Rate Gross Reproduction Rate

44.8 352.3 4.877

41.5 298.6 4.014

Indians 40.5 263.8 3.504

32.4 217.3 3.114

28.7 177.3 2.815

It would be interesting to find out why the position of the Malays has been so different. There is one unique factor which influences the fertility level of the Malays but not that of the Chinese or the Indians. An extremely large proportion of the Malay marriages ended in divorce; and this somewhat unstable marriage pattern leads to a considerable shortening of the period in which these women are exposed to childbearing. Incidentally, it has been established that for this reason the Malay women in the northeastern states of Kelantan and Trengganu in mainland Malaya are experiencing lower fertility. 8 It is to be expected that a reduction in the divorce rate will be followed by a rise in the level of fertility. This is the explanation for the rise in the fertility of the Malay women; the steeper rise within the last eight years may be attributed to the stringent measures instituted by the government with the aim of reducing the frequency of divorce in the Malay community. T h e two-fold feature of a high divorce rate up to 1 9 5 8 and the marked drop thereafter is illustrated by the data given in Table 6.6. Though the 9 S a w S w e e - H o c k , " / - > / " f ; / i ' r y Differentials V o l . 4 , N o . 2, 1 9 6 7 , p p . 6 4 1 - 6 5 6 .

in Early

Postwar

Malaya,"

Demography,

80 TABLE 6 . 6

MUSLIM MARRIAGES AND DIVORCES, 1955-1965 Muslim

Muslim

% of Divorce

Marriages

Divorces

to Marriages

1955

2,472

1,247

50.4

1956

1,074

44.5

1957

2,414 2,303

1958

2,332

1,201 1,149

49.3

1959

2,116

577

27.3

1960 1961

1,814 1,560

574

31.6

1,483

401 449

25.7

1962 1963

1,690

430

25.4

1964 1965

1,698

324 272

19.1

Year

1,922

52.1

30.3

14.2

figures are for all races, no less than 80 per cent of the Muslim marriages are contracted by parties both of whom are Malays. The high divorce rate prevailing before 1959 may be explained in terms of the following factors pinpointed by Djamour. 9 1. T h e e c o n o m i c deterents to d i v o r c e are not strong. 2. Re-marriage is e a s y and i n e x p e n s i v e . 3. A f t e r her divorce, a w o m a n c a n d e p e n d o n her c l o s e kin f o r practical and moral support. 4. T h e r e is f r e e d o m of a c c e s s t o the children b y both mother, and their respective kin.

father

and

5. T h e m e c h a n i s m of a d o p t i o n is available if neither party desires t o k e e p the children.

At the end of November, 1958, the Shariah Court was established under the provision of the 1957 Muslim Ordinance which contains certain new rules and regulations regarding Muslim marriages and divorces with the aim of enforcing the Law of Islam more carefully and of reducing the number of divorces.10 In this respect the success of the Court is clearly testified by the remarkable drop in the divorce rate since 1959 which in no small way has been due to the conciliation efforts of the Shariah Court 9 Judith Djamour, Malay Kinship and Marriage in Singapore, (London: The Athlone Press, 1959), p. 139. 10 Singapore, Annual Report of the Registry of Muslim Marriages and the Shariah Court 1962, (Singapore: Government Printer, 1964), p. 1.

81 TABLE 6 . 7

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATES FOR THE THREE MAIN RACES, 1957-1965 Per cent Increase or Decrease Year

Chinese

Malays

Indians C

1957 1958

3.180 3.058

3.059 3.183

3.504 3.591

1959 1960

2.956 2.790

3.569 3.526

1961 1962 1963

2.597 2.452 2.422

3.244 3.260 3.289

1964 1965

2.277 2.034

3.361 3.323 3.392 3.134

3.289 3.114 3.051 3.020 2.815

M

1 —

-

3.8 3.3

5.6 6.9 5.6 - 0.1 6.0 -10.7

+4.1

+0.2

+1.9 +0.5 +0.9 +2.2

-0.6 -1.2

-1.1 +2.1

-2.0 -1.0 -6.8

-7.6

-6.7 -5.3

officials and to the fact that divorces other than by mutual consent now require Court proceedings. 11 A somewhat anomalous feature of the Indian figures is the exceptionally high level of fertility as represented by the gross reproduction rate of 4.877, caused by a postwar baby-boom resulting partly from postponement of marriages and partly from postponement of births. However, the fact that the two postwar censuses recorded a higher proportion of married women in 1957 than in 1947 strongly suggests that the primary cause was the postponement of births during the difficult times under the Japanese rule. It is not too difficult to pinpoint the reasons for the baby-boom happening only among the Indians since it is generally known that the war years exerted a comparatively greater disruptive influence on the family life of this community. In particular, the forced movement of Indian laborers to work on the construction of the Siam-Burma "death" railway resulted in more frequent cases of separation of Indian spouses than of spouses of the other races. It is not unexpected, therefore, that more Indian babies than usual were bom in the immediate postwar years when family life became once again normal with the return of peacetime conditions and with the re-union of Indian men with their wives. It may be observed in Table 6.7 that the sharp downward movement in fertility which first became conspicuous in 1957 in Singapore has been engendered primarily by a fall in fertility among the Chinese and to a lesser

11

For a detailed account of the work of the Shariah Court towards the reduction of the Muslim divorce rate, see Judith Djamour, The Muslim Matrimonial Court in Singapore, (London: The Athlone Press, 1966).

82 extent by a fall among the Indians. The total reduction amounted to 36 per cent for the Chinese and 20 per cent for the Indians. We must also bear in mind that any change in Chinese fertility will have greater repercussions on the overall fertility of Singapore in view of the numerical predominance of the Chinese race. The main reasons underlying the fall for these two races are probably a rise in the average age at marriage of women and a reduction in the completed family size. It seems likely that the traditional attitude towards the so-called ideal family size has changed in favour of a smaller family. Family limitation, which influences couples to start having their children later, to adopt a wider spacing of children and to stop having children after achieving a smaller number, appears to have gained in popularity. The government has given more help in terms of money and clinical accommodation to the Family Planning Association whose activities have expanded considerably. In 1966 the work of this Association was taken over by the government which integrated the family planning activities with the Ministry of Health. An account of the Association work and the government population policy and program is given in a later chapter. An analysis of the changes in the fertility levels in the various quinary age groups among the three races is presented in Table 6.8. The outstanding feature of this table is the sharp decline recorded by the Chinese over the whole age range since 1957; the fall is particularly heavy among the women below age 25. The Malay rates on the other hand exhibit the reverse tendency, that is towards an increase from as early as 1947, with the exception that the rate in the first age group 1 5 - 1 9 fell steadily on account of a rise in the average age at marriage of women. Furthermore, the rate in the last age group did not follow any definite trend, oscillating between 10 and 13. Lastly, the trend among the Indians has not been so clear-cut. A reduction in the rate since 1947 is noticeable among the age groups 15-19, 3 0 - 3 4 , 3 5 - 3 9 and 40—44, while the rate in the two age groups between 20 and 29 declined from the beginning until 1957 after which it increased for two or three years and then declined again. Mainly because of the numerically small number of births, the figures for the last age group are somewhat erratic.

III. Fertility Differentials In Singapore the process of racial assimilation has taken place on such a minor scale that each of the three principal races still retains its own basic traits as determined by diverse religious and cultural backgrounds. Differences in the level of fertility among these races would therefore constitute

83 TABLE 6 . 8

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES FOR THE THREE MAIN RACES, 1947-1965 Age of M o t h e r Ypar 1 Gal 15-19

20-24

25-29

35-39

40-44

45-49

309.9

343.8

284.1

1952

67.3 55.9

321.3

350.1

285.0

207.5 205.2

91.8

11.0

89.5

1957

46.8

361.0

308.4

1958 1959

49.2

282.1 267.9

11.4

88.5

12.6

297.9

210.0 199.5

348.7

86.4

13.4

50.3

251.4

1960

38.7

235.2

332.5

286.2

198.3

81.2

12.3

328.5

275.9

186.4

83.3

1961 1962

35.6 31.9

12.2

220.7

307.4

352.7

172.5

74.2

9.5

211.7

289.5

163.0

71.2

9.6

29.3

212.2

280.9

236.7 232.9

1963

157.9

70.4

8.7

1964

23.8

275.7

221.2

152.6

66.0

8.6

1965

24.2

191.1 173.3

242.6

211.1

138.7

58.8

8.2

1947

295.7

285.2

180.1

134.5

33.4

10.0

1952

209.8 202.2

321.5

389.0

198.7

136.8

35.2

9.9

1957

194.0

337.6

317.4

221.4

132.6

41.6

10.4

30-34 Chinese

1947

Malays

1958

198.3

357.7

317.7

43.9

378.9 391.2 411.1

318.3 315.9 321.9

161.7

54.2

12.6 12.9

1960 1961

192.0 169.2 159.9

232.6 233.3

151.7

1959

251.6 250.8

159.2 160.1

48.2 48.3

10.5 12.8

1962

153.6

415.0

325.4

251.6

400.1 401.8

352.5

253.7

53.6 58.2

1964

129.5 110.2

167.1 178.6

10.6

1963

362.6

255.5

172.8

62.0

12.0

1965

96.2

342.8

344.1

248.3

179.8

55.0

11.1

1947

381.1

431.9

341.2

247.6

427.7

285.5

216.1 191.7

64.6

1952

515.0 462.3

57.7

10.8 8.3

10.1

Indians

1957

243.6

255.7

154.7

55.5

4.8

225.8

392.6 431.2

340.5

1958

351.2

258.3

148.4

48.6

1959

200.8

455.2

359.0

239.5

184.1

338.8

249.5

13.8

1961 1962

164.5 152.5

473.8 435.9

39.6 32.9

1.1 9.4

1960

141.1 141.8

328.6

230.0

138.0

32.5

3.7

447.4

305.4

193.4

129.7

40.5

3.5

1963

407.8

326.3

205.5

129.4

34.8

5.5

1964

129.7 106.9

408.1

339.0

198.3

33.5

5.6

1965

93.1

358.5

351.8

199.9

124.1 101.7

29.4

7.1

an interesting and vital aspect of any fertility investigation in Singapore. An attempt will be made in this section to utilize data from censuses and vital registration to bring out the salient features of race differences in fertility levels and patterns and the most likely factors accountable for them.

84 The gross reproduction rates shown in Tables 6.5 and 6.7 suggest that the position in respect to the actual differences in the overall level of fertility has been changing in the last two decades. Taking the Chinese rate as 100 per cent, the position of the other two races is as follows:— 1947

1952

1957

1962

1965

88 154

90 125

96 110

137 127

154 138

Malays Indians

In 1947 the fertility of the Indians was slighdy less than twice that of the Malays, with the Chinese recording a slightly higher level than the latter. In five year's time the Indian fertility was substantially lowered, with, however, only minor changes in the levels of the other two races. This tendency towards a levelling of the differences continued until 1957 but without the relative position of these races being altered. Within the short span of the next five years a radical change occurred. The Malays emerged with the highest fertility, but the Chinese fertility still rested at the lowest point. A comparison of the pattern of age-specific fertility rates among the three races is presented in Table 6.9. On the whole the Malay women and the Indian women display a somewhat similar pattern of childbearing behavior, one that differs considerably from that of the Chinese women. Fertility is at its highest for women in the early twenties and next highest for women in the late twenties; of the two races the rates for the Malay women are higher except for the two youngest age groups between 20 and 29. The position of the Chinese is different in the sense that fertility stands at its highest in the late twenties and next highest at the early thirties and not at the early twenties. The general shape of the age-specific fertility rates is determined partly by the average age at marriage of women and the age-specific marriage rates. TABLE 6.9 AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES FOR THE THREE M A I N RACES, 1 9 6 5 Chinese = 1 0 0 Age Group 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Chinese

Malays

Indians

24.2 173.3 242.6 211.1 138.7 58.8 8.2

96.2 347.8 344.1 248.3 179.8 55.0 11.1

93.1 358.5 351.8 199.9 101.7 29.4 7.1

Malays

Indians

398 201 143 118 130 94 135

385 207 145 95 73 50 86

85 If one examines the figures in Table 6.9 carefully, one is struck by the exceptionally low rate recorded by the Chinese women in the first age group, only about one-fourth that of the other two races. The explanation lies in the two somewhat interdependent factors of a higher average age at marriage of women and the lower marriage frequency below age 20 among the Chinese. The absence of the relevant statistics renders it impossible to compute the average age at marriage for each of the three races. However, it is possible to calculate the singulate mean age at marriage of brides from the 1957 Census data, and the results of the calculation is shown below. 12 Chinese

21.1

Malays

17.9

Indians

18.4

It has been pointed out by Maurice Freedman that the Chinese "view of the minimum age at which young people become fit for wedlock seems to be high in comparison with, for example, Indian and Malay customs." 13 In the second age group 20-24 the Chinese rate is still appreciably lower, about half that of the Malays or Indians. At the other quinary groups the difference has levelled somewhat, and the Chinese rate even exceeds the Indian rate at ages 30 and above. It is reasonable to suggest that this is due to the rather high average age at marriage which tends to shift the termination of childbearing by the Chinese women to later ages. A comparison of the gross reproduction rates of Singapore and other countries shows that with a rate of 2.33 in 1965 the level of fertility in Singapore is fairly high by international standards. It is exceeded by certain countries such as Barbados with 3.88 in 1963, Panama with 2.78 in 1962, and Malaya with 2.69 in 1965. In fact most of the less developed countries in Asia and South America are recording rates that stay well above 2.00. In contrast the economically developed countries, comprising Japan, Australia, Canada, the United States and almost all the European countries, are at present experiencing low levels of fertility. Australia registered a rate of 1.62 in 1963, Japan 0.95 in 1963, Canada 1.80 in 1963, the United States 1.70 in 1962, France 1.36 in 1962, and Sweden 1.07 in 1961.

12 For an account of the method of calculating the singulate mean age at marriage, see John Hajnal, "Age at Marriage and Proportions Marrying," Population Studies, Vol. VII, November 1953, pp. 111-136. 13 Maurice Freedman, Chinese Family and Marriage in Singapore (London: H.M.S.O., 1957), p. 111.

86 TABLE 6.10 AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES OF SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1962

Country

Age of Mother 15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

Puerto Rico Panama Hungary Finland

100.6 153.1 46.7 27.8

267.4 311.8 143.2 161.4

192.8 287.4 94.9 156.5

125.7 198.9 47.0 100.1

99.3 128.0 20.3 55.9

40.7 40.6 6.9 23.4

7.2 8.0 0.3 2.4

Australia England & Wales Barbados France

46.6 39.3 115.6 22.3

215.3 179.2 192.4 170.0

215.8 181.7 195.7 182.9

127.6 104.6 162.5 107.8

61.3 48.3 101.4 54.1

18.3 14.1 32.4 18.9

1.2 0.8 2.4 1.2

Malaya Greece Singapore Taiwan

104.2 16.8 53.2 45.5

288.4 109.7 250.7 254.8

306.9 146.8 295.4 338.3

248.0 101.5 233.3 235.4

155.0 47.8 158.1 145.2

63.8 12.5 65.6 65.2

6.7 1.6 9.2 9.6

A comparison of the 1962 age-specific fertility rates of Singapore and those of some selected countries is presented in Table 6.10. It is possible to distinguish three patterns of age-specific fertility rates—one with the highest fertility emerging at ages 20-24, the other at ages 20-29, and still another at 25-29. As may be inferred from the general level of the rates, the three types seem to occur at all levels of overall fertility and irrespective of whether fertility is rising, stationary or declining. As for which particular pattern actually prevails at any moment, this is probably determined by the two-fold effect of the age-specific proportion of married women and the mean age at marriage of women. It is also plausible that, given a constant level of overall fertility, a rise in the mean age at marriage from the lowest possible level to the highest will be accompanied by a gradual evolution of the pattern from the first to the third, and vice versa. The present fertility pattern in Singapore clearly belongs to the third category. It remains to note that the general shape of the fertility rates for the Singapore women closely resembles that of the Taiwan women, which is not surprising since 77 per cent of the women in Singapore are Chinese. The general pattern for the Singapore women also resembles that for the Malayan women, with the important exception that in the youngest age group the rate for the latter is almost twice that of the former. In the main this is due to the influence of the high fertility level of the Malay women in Malaya at these young ages.

7 MORTALITY TRENDS A N D DIFFERENTIALS The size and structure of a population at any given time are determined by the interactions of mortality, fertility and migration in the immediate past. While previous chapters have dealt with an account of migration and fertility, this chapter will be devoted to a brief survey of the broad trends in mortality during the years prior to the Second World War and a somewhat more thorough analysis in the postwar years when detailed data are made available. An attempt will also be made to study the changing position regarding differentials in mortality among the three main races and the final position attained in the most recent period. I. General Survey of Mortality Trends, 1878-1965 In studying mortality trends we ought to be careful in interpreting the figures particularly those in the late nineteenth century and the early twentieth century because they were probably subject to the progressive improvement in the vital registration system. The doubtful accuracy of the early population estimates used for the computation of the death rates may cast further doubt on the reliability of the rates. Another problem in interpreting the figures is that the annual death statistics of the early period were affected by violent fluctuations resulting from sporadic epidemics and frequent external displacements of the population caused by local economic depressions. In view of these difficulties the figures will be presented in terms of quinquennial years. With certain reservations it is possible to trace the general direction of mortality trends. In Table 7.1 are given the figures pertaining to the annual average deaths and the crude death rates for quinquennial years from 1878 to 1965. 1 A close examination of the rates will reveal that they passed through

1 The population denominator employed in the calculation of the crude death rate is the average of the five mid-year populations in each given quinquennial years.

88 TABLE 7.1 ANNUAL AVERAGE DEATHS AND CRUDE DEATH RATES, 1878-1965 Period

Annual Average Deaths

Crude Death Rates

1878-80 1881-85 1886-90 1891-95 1896-00 1901-05 1906-10 1911-15 1916-20 1921-25 1926-30 1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-66

3,095 4,818 6,278 6,771 8,847 11,349 11,721 12,078 13,023 13,206 16,031 12,722 14,787 29,166 12,733 11,472 10,369 10,208

23.9 32.9 37.3 35.4 39.4 47.1 43.2 37.6 35.2 29.1 29.0 23.1 21.5 35.6 13.0 9.6 6.9 5.7

certain fairly noticeable phases. The first phase covers the various five-year periods in the nineteenth century during which the rates showed no definite signs of declining, generally fluctuating between the levels of 33 and 40 per thousand population. The rates registered an increase at times, and were more often than not rather high as compared with present day levels. There are grounds for suggesting that the slight rise was generated by an improvement in the registration of deaths and did not necessarily reflect an increase in the actual level of mortality. The exceptionally heavy mortality as underlined by the high death rates may be attributed to insanitary surroundings, bad housing, malnutrition, inadequate medical facilities and unhealthy superstitious practices. The second phase covers the first four decades of the present century during which time a predominantly downward trend in the death rates became apparent. From the very beginning a continuous and marked decline was recorded, but the amount of reduction seems to vary considerably from one period to another. Towards the end of this phase the rate had been brought down to a moderate level of 21.5 per thousand population in 1936-40, slightly less than half what it was in the beginning. The progressive reduction may be attributed to advances in medical science and the efforts of the health authorities towards constant improvement in hygiene and sanitation by which a wide range of infectious and epidemic diseases

89 like malaria, typhoid and dysentery were brought under control. Other contributory factors are the improvement in the education of the community especially in matters of hygiene and health, and the rise in the general standards of living reflected in better food, clothing and housing. At the end of this phase the continuous decline was suddenly interrupted by the Japanese occupation during which the death rates moved in a sharp upward direction. During the short but unique phase embracing the Japanese occupation the level of mortality was very high with many well-known killer diseases completely out of control. The conditions prevailing at this time may be best seen in the following abstract from the Report of the Medical Department: The civil population was exceedingly undernourished, malaria was rampant, beri-beri and other conditions due to malnutrition affected a considerable number of inhabitants of the Island. Although the Japanese had done a certain amount of medical work, a great deal of important preventive and curative treatment had been grossly neglected. 2

In the absence of accurate population data, a very rough estimate of the crude death rate for this period would be somewhere around the neighbourhood of 36 per thousand population. Table 7.2 pinpoints the principal causes of death to beri-beri due to deficient diets overloaded with tapioca and potato carbohydrates, 3 dysentery caused by deficient and improper diets, and malaria resulting from the neglect of systematic anti-malarial work and shortage of quinine. The heavy mortality experienced during the war years was therefore caused partly by the lack of preventive and curative medical facilities and partly by chronic malnutrition consequent on the acute shortage of food. What is more important is that there were many unregistered deaths due to causes which are not encountered during peacetime; these were deaths resulting from active combat, guerrilla warfare and execution by the Japanese kempetei. The fourth and most recent phase covers the postwar period, conspicuous for the rapid fall in the death rate. During the first five years the rate 2 Singapore, Annual Report oj the Medical Department, 1946, (Singapore: Government Printer, 1947), p. 11. 3 During the Japanese occupation the daily meals of the bulk of the population consisted of sweet potatoes and tapioca, sometimes mixed with some rice. A meal comprising rice solely was a rare treat indeed, and was certainly regarded as benefitting a big celebration.

90 TABLE 7.2 PRINCIPAL CAUSES OF DEATH. 1941-1946 Causes of Death

1941

1942

1943

636 1,769 1,432

2,817

2,004 3,166 2,077 2,282 460 680

1944

1945

1946

6,659

786 1,571 1,519

Number of Deaths Beri-beri Infantile convulsions Pneumonia Tuberculosis (respiratory) Dysentery Malaria Total Deaths from all causes

Beri-beri Infantile convulsions Pneumonia Tuberculosis (respiratory) Dysentery Malaria

4,280 2,383 2,172

1,791 394 273

2,248 1,036

15,978

29,833

4.0 11.1 9.0 11.2 2.5 1.7

9.4 14.3 8.0 7.3 7.5 3.5

21,936

6,749 4,562

1,886

3,080 2,373 2,764 1,719 2,771

42,751

35,330

15,287

18.8 8.7

5.1 10.3 9.9

4,249 3,338 2,977

Per cent of Total Deaths 9.1 15.8 10.7 14.4 9.9 9.5 10.4 2.1 3.1

7.8 7.0 4.4

6.7 7.8 4.9 7.8

1,976 171 608

12.9 1.1 4.0

was brought down from the abnormally high level of the war years to a position well below that of the immediate prewar level. A thorough appraisal of the rapid fall in postwar mortality will be presented in the next section, and we now proceed to a comparative analysis of the trends among the three main races. Comparison Among Main Races The data laid out in Table 7.3 seem to indicate that the trends in the crude death rates for each of the three main races conform fairly closely to the four phases outlined above, with however a few irregularities and differences. We can see that the path traced by the death rates is much smoother in the case of the Malays than in the case of the Chinese or the Indians. The rates of the relatively settled Malay community were seldom affected by fluctuations in migration, but those of the two immigrant communities were at times distorted by violent waves of immigration and emigration. For instance, the rates of these two races registered a marked drop in 1 9 3 1 - 1 9 3 5 over those in the previous period 1 9 2 6 - 1 9 3 0 . The explanation lies in the substantial repatriation of Chinese and Indians, mostly the unemployed, aged and decrepit in the early 1930's as a means of minimising the economic difficulties of the world depression.4 Straits Settlements, Report on the Registration apore: Government Printer, 1933), p. 2. 4

of Births and Deaths,

1932, (Sing-

91 TABLE

7.3

CRUDE DEATH RATES FOR THE THREE MAIN RACES, 1886-1965 Period

Chinese

Malays

Indians

1886-90

38.4

36.8

30.4

1891-95

36.9

35.8

29.5

1896-00

42.8

35.6

31.1

1901-05

49.3

45.2

39.3

1906-10

43.3

46.1

47.7

1911-15

39.7

38.4

28.6

1916-20

36.9

36.7

28.3

1921-25

29.4

33.0

26.9

1926-30

29.8

31.4

25.5

1931-35

23.5

28.7

17.3

1936-40

22.2

25.9

15.3

1941-45

34.6

62.7

61.8

1946-50

12.6

16.7

13.4

1951-55

9.3

12.7

8.1

1956-60

6.6

9.1

5.9

1961-65

5.7

6.5

5.1

Another factor which interrupted the general trend in the death rates was sporadic epidemics, affecting the rates of every race. The best example is the world influenza epidemic of 1918; the heavy mortality registered during the year was produced by the prevalence of a fatal type of influenza and its complications as seen in the increase in cases of death due to "lungs and fever unspecified." According to the Registrar-General, the deaths registered as due to influenza numbered 8 4 4 , which was far below the actual number resulting directly or indirectly from this disease. He estimated that influenza caused the death of approximately 3 , 5 0 0 persons. This figure was arrived at by attributing to influenza and its many complications the excess deaths registered under "Pneumonia," "Bronchitis", "Phthisis" and "Fever not specified." 5 The effect of this epidemic may be seen in the negligible reduction in the death rates of the three races recorded during 1 9 1 6 - 2 0 as compared with the period 1 9 1 1 - 1 5 . Table 7.3 also shows that appreciable differences in the levels of the crude death rates existed among the three races. Except for the periods 1 9 0 6 - 1 0 , 1 9 4 1 - 4 5 and 1 9 4 6 - 5 0 , the lowest rates ever recorded were those of the Indians whose sex-age composition was conducive to relatively low crude death rates. Prior to 1 9 2 1 - 2 5 the Chinese more often than not experienced the highest death rate, but from this period onward until the present day the highest rates have been recorded by the Malays. However,

5

Ibid, p. 3.

92 it is hardly necessary to emphasize that the differences in these crude rates are to a very large extent caused by variation in the sex-age structures of the three races, and do not by any means reflect the actual differentials in mortality. II. Postwar Mortality Trends One of the most spectacular demographic changes that occurred in every part of the world during the years after the Second World War was the rapid decline in mortality and its consequent effect on the rate of population growth. The progress made in reducing mortality has been particularly impressive in the developing countries, not excluding Singapore where the improved living conditions and the new medical and public health facilities introduced soon after the Japanese occupation produced a marked downward shift in the level of mortality for the total population and for most of its components. Table 7.4 shows that, apart from a minor irregularity in 1950, the long-term movement in the crude death rates has been decidedly downward TABLE

7.4

SOME MORTALITY RATES FOR THE THREE MAIN RACES, 1946-65

Year

Crude

Infant

Neonatal

Maternal

Death

Mortality

Mortality

Mortality

Rate

Rate

Rate

Rate

89.7

39.0

3.3

1947

13.3

87.3

33.1

2.9

1948

12.4

80.8

32.8

2.4

1949

11.9

72.0

28.0

2.2

1950

12.0

82.2

29.8

1.8

1951

11.6

75.2

29.2

1.6

1952

10.7

70.0

31.7

1.7

1953

9.7

67.1

32.0

1.2

1954

8.6

56.0

26.1

1.5

1955

8.1

49.5

23.0

0.9

1956

7.5

42.5

19.1

0.7

1957

7.4

41.4

17.8

0.9

1958

7.0

43.7

19.0

0.8

1959

6.4

36.0

17.3

0.7

1960

6.2

34.9

17.7

0.4

1961

5.9

32.3

17.7

0.4

1962

5.9

31.2

19.1

0.4

1963

5.7

28.1

18.4

0.3

1964

5.7

29.9

19.6

0.4

1965

5.5

26.3

17.9

0.4

1946

93 in the postwar years, being lowered from 13.3 in 1947 to 5.5 in 1965. This points to the improvement made in the general health conditions of the people, though to a limited extent it also reflects the gradual appearance of a younger population. Although the present rate compares more than favorably with those in most of the developed countries in the West, this comparison should not be construed as an indication of the relative health conditions in view of Singapore's crude rate being depressed by the large proportion of young persons in the population. Another noteworthy feature of the table is the obvious effectiveness of the efforts made by the health authorities to bring down the level of mortality among infants. T h e infant mortality rate, defined as the number of deaths under one year of age per 1,000 live-births, was reduced from 89.7 in 1 9 4 6 to 2 6 . 3 in 1965, giving a total reduction of about 71 per cent in twenty years. This achievement is of special importance since infant deaths account for a large share of all losses of life and the rate is generally accepted as the best index for gauging health conditions of a region. For a better appreciation of past and future decline in infant mortality, it is essential to examine its components and their causes. Briefly, mortality during the first year of life can be conveniently divided into two main components, viz. neonatal mortality which refers to deaths during the first four weeks and post-neonatal mortality which covers deaths during the remainder of the first year after birth. T h e latter is attributed to exogenous causes and is more amenable to environmental and medical controls, while the former is due to endogenous factors which respond to these controls up to a point only. Referring to Table 7 . 4 again, one can observe that during the two decades a fall of only 5 4 per cent was recorded in neonatal mortality rate, defined as the number of deaths under 2 8 days of age per 1,000 live-births; in fact most of the decrease occurred in the first ten years or so, and since then the downward trend has been somewhat irregular. T h e rate has remained quite stationary in the neighborhood of 18 since 1 9 5 6 ; this inability to bring down the rate further may be attributed to the intractibility of endogenous causes. This may mean that any further declines in the infant mortality rate can only be possible through an improvement in the health conditions among infants between the ages of 2 8 days and below one year. Much more rapid strides were made in the saving of lives among mothers if we examine the movement of the maternal mortality rate which may be defined as the number of deaths due to puerperal causes per 1,000 total live-births and still-births. As may be observed in Table 7.4, from the very beginning in 1 9 4 6 the rate was brought down at a comparatively

94 TABLE 7.5

AGE-SPECIFIC DEATH RATES, 1946-48. 1956-58 AND 1961-63 Per cent Decline 1946-63

Age Group

1946-48

1956-58

1961-63

0 1-4 5-9 10-14 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55 & Over Standardized Death Rate

85.74 17.90 2.93 3.43 5.65 7.61 9.12 10.73 12.97 16.49 21.27 56.81

42.82 4.62 1.24 1.05 1.42 1.66 2.38 3.57 5.48 8.49 12.73 55.22

30.49 2.48 0.79 0.94 1.19 1.28 1.75 2.66 4.22 6.47 11.74 52.97

64.4 8.06 73.0 72.6 78.9 83.2 80.8 75.2 67.5 60.8 44.8 6.8

15.02

8.02

6.64

55.8

faster speed so that by 1965 it was slashed to the extent of about 91 per cent. By and large this impressive record was in no small measure due to the relentless efforts of the health authorities in the field of ante-natal and post-natal care. It is not surprising that in 1957 the Kethering Shield was awarded by the National Baby Welfare Council of Great Britain to Singapore's Ministry of Health in recognition of the good work done in the rural areas for maternal and child welfare and, in particular, for the excellent facilities available for both ante-natal and post-natal care. 6 An idea of the extent and nature of declines in mortality at the other ages may be observed in Table 7.5 showing the age-specific death rates for three periods. The techniques of adjusting and smoothing the rates for the two periods 1 9 5 6 - 5 8 and 1 9 6 1 - 6 3 are discussed in detail in Appendix One where the data were treated separately for each sex. As a matter of convenience and consistency, the rates for the older age groups affected by the smoothing process have been derived from the completed abridged life r,dm

table functions according to the formula, — -

+

'—,

where the super-

scripts m and / denote males and females respectively. This formula yields a more correct value that is slightly less than the value based on an 6 Singapore, Printer, 1959).

Report

of the Medical

Department,

1957,

(Singapore: Government

95 arithmetic mean of the two adjusted rates, i.e. Vi (3m™ + The rates for the lower age groups unaffected by the smoothing process are obtained in the usual manner from the population and death statistics of both sexes combined, with the same adjustments made to the rates below age 5 as described in the Appendix. The 1961-63 age-specific death rates for the last age group for both sexes of the three main races presented in Table 7.6 have also been derived by means of the procedures outlined here. It is possible to use the age-specific death rates to examine the influence of age on mortality levels. In conformity with observations made in other countries, mortality in Singapore is very high in the first few years of life and decreases rapidly to the lowest level in the teenage group of 10-14, and then begins to rise gradually until about the mid-forties after which it rises progressively faster until the last survivors of the generation are extinguished. Such a pattern of high mortality at the very young and at the very old and low-mortality at the early teens always prevails irrespective of the general level of mortality at various times or among various races, as evidenced in Tables 7.5 and 7.6. The data supplied in Table 7.5 point to a fairly substantial, though expectedly not uniform, decrease in mortality at the various age groups. The acceleration in mortality decline was most marked in the young age group 1—4, the rate being reduced by 86 per cent during 1946-1963. At the other age groups below age 45 the amount of reduction varies between 65 and 83 per cent, while at the older age groups the percentage decline becomes progressively smaller until the last age group when a drop of only 6.8 per cent was registered. It would appear that more has been accomplished in eliminating premature death than in lengthening the life-span of persons who survive beyond the mid-forties. The slackening in mortality decline with the advance of old age may be attributed to what is commonly known as the 'generation factor'—deaths at old ages are essentially caused by degenerative ailments which are not so readily amenable to medical science. The amount of reduction in overall mortality may perhaps be best gauged by the age-standardized death rates. 7 According to the rates included in Table 7.5 the overall mortality was reduced by about 56 per cent during the seventeen years under review, a 3.3 per cent decline per annum on the average. 7 The age-specific death rates given in Table 7.5. are used to calculate the standardized death rates by the direct method, taking the 1957 Census age distribution as the standard population.

96 Changes Among Main Races We will now study the part played by the main racial components in the postwar decline in overall mortality. The first impression conveyed by the rates set out in Table 7.6 is one of general reduction throughout the age range in every one of the three races, with progressively smaller decreases with the advance of old age. However, on a closer scrutiny one would not fail to notice the more important feature of race variations in the details of the pattern of decline at different age groups. For both the Chinese and the Indians the largest amount of decrease was recorded in the young age group of 1—4 as compared with the Malays who experienced the greatest reduction in the thirties. These divergent trends of mortality rates at different age groups are associated with changes in the relative importance of certain major groups of causes of death among the three races as the general mortality level moved from high to low. The net effect of the above mentioned detailed changes may be summarized by the age-standardized death rates also included in Table 7.6. The greatest decrease in overall mortality was recorded among the Indians and the smallest among the Chinese, with the Malays occupying an intermediate position. One standard population was employed to compute the rates which can therefore be used to compare differences in mortality levels.8 Experiences in many countries have shown that to some extent the speed at which mortality declines over a period depends on the level at the beginning; the lower the initial level the slower would be the decline. This explains the smallest amount of reduction registered among the Chinese. But judging from the low level prevailing at the beginning of the period the total decrease of about 55 per cent is a better achievement in comparison with the 56 per cent of the Malays. However, it may be seen that by far the greatest progress was made by the Indians, which was due to some special circumstances. There are good reasons for suggesting that their mortality level was somewhat higher than usual at the beginning of the period under review; their general health was still in a bad state, having been severely affected by malnutrition and under-nutrition during the Japanese occupation. Apart from this, the health conditions of the Indian men who had returned from forced labor in the Siam-Burma "death" railway was none

8 In using the age-specific death rates shown in Table 7.6 to compute the standardized death rates by the direct method the standard population employed was the 1957 Census age distribution of the total population.

^ooou^oncgoaiNOiœ . o

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o o m m

2 7 « a

cû^r^ooioocvicsjcricotûinô «ûNrstorsooooooisiûifio

2

o o m o o

« «

2

iin^fsKOCvjrsooooofn

o £ o

i ^ H M *t I O< t O C M O O O « C

2

L O O t O — « C D O t L O C O r ^ C N C iM O — ' ^tor^rvfvißairvfntücncvjoo cvj ¡cvj^-cbooocsito»—i p^. • HHiiNin

O ) ~ o

rHMCsjcsjcnfo^^Lninw

98 too good. With the gradual return of normal peacetime conditions their mortality decline clearly took a sharp downward course. Changes in Causes of Death

An important aspect of the analysis of mortality trends is the examination of the changes in the pattern of causes of death that accompanied the declining mortality phase in the postwar years. One inevitable difficulty encountered in the study of causes of death is the multifarious number of causes and hence the problem of devising a sensible method of grouping them into a few more manageable categories. The most detailed classification is the list with 1,000 groups of diseases presented in the form of a three-digit code in the international classification of diseases, injuries and causes of death. 9 These 1,000 categories are regrouped in an intermediate list of 150 causes with the numbering system of A l , A2, A3, etc. These are further regrouped into an abbreviated list of 50 causes with the numbering system of B l , B2, B3 etc. It is from this list of 50 causes that we will derive our 18 groups of causes, three of which are groupings of certain of the 50 causes and the last group covers all the miscellaneous causes not specially represented as a group or part of a group. By and large these 18 groups, shown in Table 7.7, would be quite manageable and adequate for evaluating the major changes in the pattern of causes of death. Though mortality from most causes followed a downward path as the fall in general mortality level continued year after year, there are a few striking exceptions. Deaths from cancer have increased from 347 in 1948 to 1,359 in 1963, and the rate expressed in terms of per 100,000 population has doubled over the period, increasing from 36.12 to 76.55. Another increase may be observed in the rate for diseases of the heart which rose from 45.07 in 1948 to 53.57 in 1963. The third increase was in motor vehicle accidents which registered a small rise from 10.30 in 1948 to 11.32 in 1963. There seems to be a common link underlying these rising tendencies in the sense that they are often associated with a higher standard of living and a quicker tempo of life. For one thing there is sufficient evidence to show that in the declining mortality phase the more developed countries in the West have witnessed the same upward tendencies in these causes of death.10 9 World Health Organization, Manual of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1957). 10 United Nations, Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 6, (New York: Department of Economics and Social Affairs, 1963).

99 TABLE 7.7 PRINCIPAL CAUSES OF DEATH, 1948-1963 (Rate: Number of Deaths per 100,000 Population) Number Causes

1948

1. Senility without mention of psychosis, ill-defined and unknown causes (B45 3,078 2. Cancer ( B 1 8 & B 1 9 ) 347 3. Diseases of the heart (B25, B26 & B27) 433 4. Infections of new-born (B42, B43 & B44) 849 5. Pneumonia (B31) 1,178 6. Tuberculosis of respiratory system (81) 1,449 7. Gastritis, duodenitis, enteritis and colitis except diarrhoea of the new-born (B36) 948 8. All other accidents (BE48) 202 9. Motor vehicle accidents (BE47) 99 10. Suicide and self-inflicted injuries (BE49) 86 11. Bronchitis (B32) 275 12. Ulcer of stomach and duodenum (B33) 83 13. Syphilis and its sequelae (B3) 83 14. Dysentery (B6) 100 15. Other forms of tuberculosis (B2) 233 16. Influenza (B30) 67 17. Malaria (B16) 163 18. Miscellaneous Causes 2,260

Rate

1953

1958

1963

1948

1953

1958

1963

2,361 621

2,078 855

1,788 1,359

320.36 36.12

198.10 52.11

136.72 56.67

100.72 76.55

528

677

951

45.07

44.30

44.72

53.57

1,444 1,337

1,013 1,066

935 749

88.36 122.61

121.16 112.18

66.91 70.41

52.67 42.19

811

568

647

150.08

68.05

37.52

36.45

958 207

669 210

269 228

98.67 21.02

80.38 17.37

44.19 13.87

15.15 12.84

124

183

201

10.30

10.40

12.09

11.32

158 191

121 189

155 135

8.95 28.62

13.26 16.03

7.99 12.48

8.73 7.60

76

72

60

8.64

6.38

4.76

3.38

103 44

55 32

42 30

8.64 10.41

8.64 3.69

3.63 2.11

2.37 1.69

195 39 42 2,317

55 36 6 2,699

22 17 4 2,546

24.35 6.97 16.96 235.22

16.36 3.27 3.52 194.41

3.70 2.38 0.40 178.27

1.24 0.96 0.23 143.42

The widespread reduction registered in the other causes of death is partly a manifestation of the effectiveness of the medical and public health measures instituted by the authorities to combat these diseases. Perhaps the most remarkable achievement, in combating major causes, is the good progress made in reducing the number of deaths due to tuberculosis of the respiratory system and to pneumonia. Over the period under review the rate for the former was drastically reduced from 1 5 0 . 0 8 to 3 6 . 4 5 , while that for the latter was similarly lowered from 122.61 to 4 2 . 1 9 . Fairly large reductions were also recorded in the rates for deaths due to bronchitis and

100 to influenza. It would appear that mortality due to infections and parasitic diseases and to respiratory diseases tends to fall at an accelerated speed as the general level of mortality continues on a downward path. Some special comments are necessary in respect of causes of death from dysentery and malaria. Both causes were the foremost killers during the Japanese occupation and appeared to have persisted at an unusually high level until 1948. As the repair of anti-malaria works and the introduction of D.D.T. began to take effect, mortality risk from malaria was reduced significantly from 16.96 in 1948 to 3.52 in 1953 and became almost negligible after 1958. 1 1 To a limited extent mortality risk from dysentery followed the same downward path. The above changes in varying dimensions and direction have resulted in a completely different pattern in the relative importance of the various causes of death. The new pattern that eventually emerges may be easily seen in Table 7.7 where the causes have been listed in descending order according to the 1963 rates. Leaving aside the first group which includes all the ill-defined and unknown causes, the five principal groups of causes which attain at least 36 per 100,000 are cancer, diseases of the heart, infections of the new-born, pneumonia and tuberculosis of the respiratory system. A comparison of the figures for 1948 and 1963 will reveal that cancer moved up from sixth to first place, diseases of the heart from fifth to second place, and infections of the new-born from fourth to third place, while pneumonia dropped from second to fourth place and tuberculosis of the respiratory system from first to fifth place. Between themselves these five causes accounted for 4,641 deaths in 1963, about 46 per cent of the total deaths occurring in that year. In a way these shifts call for some rethinking about priorities in allocating medical resources to combat diseases. One pertinent question concerns the accuracy of the information on causes of death which are certified by certain persons as stipulated by law. In many underdeveloped countries a very small proportion of deaths are examined and certified by persons with some medical knowledge, and this imposes a severe limitation on the usefulness of the data on causes of death. In Singapore, the law requires a death to be certified by a doctor, coroner or an inspecting officer who may be either a hospital assistant or a police

1 1 A more dramatic example occurred in Ceylon where the spraying of D.D.T. immediately after the Second World War resulted in a steep fall in the number of deaths due to malaria, and was mainly responsible for the rapid decline in overall mortality in the late 1940's. For a detailed account, see N. K. Sarkar, The Demography of Ceylon, (Ceylon: Government Press, 1957), pp. 121-123.

101 officer. Among the 12,381 deaths registered in 1951, 6,181 or 50 per cent were certified by doctors, 1,031 or 8 per cent by coroners, 2,684 or 22 per cent by hospital assistants, and 2,485 or 20 per cent by police officers. By 1963 considerable improvement in the certification of causes of death was achieved, the corresponding percentages being 58 per cent, 18 per cent, 20 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. Thus, it can be seen that no less than 76 per cent of the deaths in Singapore are nowadays examined and certified by doctors and coroners, the most reliable persons to perform this important task. The 20 per cent certified by hospital assistants are also fairly reliable in the sense that they have some medical knowledge and are familiar with the various names of the diseases. Only a very small proportion, about 4 per cent, are certified by police officers who have no medical background at all; most of these deaths occur in the neighboring islets where there are very few government health clinics. In one respect the postwar mortality decline may be considered as a continuation of the downward trend experienced in the days before the Second World War, and in another as part of the unprecedented rapid decline witnessed in almost every underdeveloped or developing country. Underlying these achievements in the postwar years are many general and specific factors whose relative importance is rather difficult to assess. By and large they may be grouped into two broad categories. The first of these is associated with the progress in economic and social development and the consequent rise in the levels of living which exerts a strong influence on the health conditions of the community. In simple terms, the more relevant components of rising levels of living are better food, clothing, housing and education. The second group covers technological advances particularly in the field of medical and biological research and in the sphere of public health and sanitary measures. The beneficial results of these advances are spread directly by health authorities among the masses to prevent or cure diseases as well as to raise the standard of hygiene and sanitation. III. Mortality Differentials From the data presented in some of the earlier tables one might have detected the differences in mortality levels between the three main racial components of the population. This aspect of mortality, always an interesting and significant feature in Singapore, will be investigated in detail in this section. Let us first consider Table 7.8 which gives the rates for infant mortality, neonatal mortality and maternal mortality for four selected years at intervals of about six years. In so far as infant mortality rate is concerned,

102 TABLE 7.8 SOME MORTALITY RATES FOR THE THREE MAIN RACES. 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 6 5 Race

1946

Chinese Malays Indians

82.3 140.5 94.5

Malays Indians

171 115

Chinese Malays Indians

36.8 55.4 38.7

Malays Indians

151 105

Chinese Malays Indians

*

Malays Indians

*

* *

*

1952

1958

Infant Mortality Rate 62.3 35.3 120.0 85.5 66.2 40.3 Chinese = 100 193 242 106 114 Neonatal Mortality Rate 30.0 17.0 39.5 29.0 35.4 17.6 Chinese = 100 132 171 118 104 Maternal Mortality Rate 1.6 0.6 2.0 1.7 1.8 0.2 Chinese = 100 125 283 112 33

1965 23.5 37.3 24.7 159 105 17.2 20.6 17.9 120 104 0.3 0.9 0.5 300 167

' N o t available.

the relative positions of the three races have remained the same throughout the period, though the gap between the Malays and the other two races has undergone certain changes. A widening of this gap followed the relatively slower decline in the Malay rate up to 1958; in 1946 the Malay rate stood at about 70 per cent higher than the Chinese rate and the position continued to worsen so that by 1958 the Malay rate was as much as 142 per cent higher. The next seven years were noteworthy for the relatively sharper decline in the Malay rate which led to a pronounced narrowing of the gap to only about 59 per cent in 1965. Curiously enough, similar tendencies may be seen to exist if we compare the Malay rate with the Indian rate. This is because the Indian rate has remained fairly consistent at about 14 per cent above the Chinese. Smaller differences in mortality for the first four weeks of life seem to exist among the three races, which may be taken to mean that the three races were subjected to greater differences in post-neonatal mortality rates than in infant mortality rates. What this amounts to is that the variations in infant mortality rates among the races are to a large extent engendered by

103 TABLE 7 . 9

AGE-SPECIFIC DEATH RATES FOR THE THREE MAIN RACES, 1961-63 Chinese = Age

0

Chinese

1

26.11 3.31

2

2.28

3

1.46

Malays

100

Indians Malays

Indians

187

118 99

30.78 3.29

307

5.12

1.65

224

72

3.17

0.68

217

46

48.75 10.15

4

1.08

2.32

0.90

215

83

5-9

0.78

0.92

0.75

118

96

10-14

0.59

0.88

0.68

149

115

15-19

0.90

1.36

0.83

151

92

20-24

1.06

1.55

1.22

146

115

25-29

1.28

1.66

1.37

1.74 2.73

1.90

1.83

130 109

107

30-34

2.64

2.78

97

102

40-44 45-49

4.19

5.07

4.36

121

6.39

8.02

8.47

126

104 132

50-54

11.86

14.82

13.10

125

110

55-59

18.37

17.77

122

97

60-64

32.16

22.37 33.92

27.19

105

84

65-69

46.84

42.97

112

70-74

41.71 66.94

71.54

74.88

107

103 112

75-79

95.51

108.41

112.24

114

118

144.99 244.77

159.97 265.61

167.63 266.96

110 108

116 109

5.46

7.50

5.81

137

106

35-39

80-84 8 5 & Over Standardized Rate

105

exogenous factors, and hence mortality for the Malay infants under one year old have been less receptive to environmental and medical controls. The somewhat less satisfactory health conditions of the Malays are also reflected in the figures, included in Table 7.8, for the maternal mortality rate defined as the number of deaths due to puerperal causes per 1,000 live-births and still-births. The variations in mortality levels among the three races at the other ages may be observed in Table 7.9 which depicts the age-specific death rates for the period 1961-63. A fairly well-defined pattern of mortality differentials between the Chinese and the Malays is seen to prevail at the various ages. Except for the age group 35-39, the heaviest mortality was experienced by the Malays. This differential is most marked at age one and becomes progressively smaller up to the late thirties, after which it stays stationary at about 20 per cent higher up to the late fifties and then around 10 per cent higher until the last age group. A less clear-cut pattern is

104 noticeable between the Chinese and the Indians, though more often than not the latter appear to experience slightly heavier mortality. It is only at ages 1 - 9 , 1 5 - 1 9 and 5 5 - 6 4 that the Indians managed to record lower death rates. The net effect of these detailed variations on the differences in overall mortality may be best measured by the age-standardized death rates included at the bottom of the table. 12 Judging from these rates, it is quite obvious that the lowest mortality is recorded by the Chinese and the heaviest, about 35 per cent more, is by the Malays. The Indian level is no more than 6 per cent above that of the former. The unfavorable mortality conditions that prevail among the Malay community can be explained in terms of a few interdependent factors. In the first place, the proportion of the population residing in less urbanized areas of the main island and in its neighboring tiny islands is far larger for the Malays—49.0 per cent—than for the Chinese—34.9 per cent—or the Indians—35.6 per cent. This is significant because in these places the medical and public health facilities are less adequate, and the environment is less satisfactory with regard to modern standards of personal hygiene and sanitation due to paucity of basic services such as pipe-water, proper drainage and a satisfactory sewerage system. The second factor, which is particularly responsible for the much higher mortality among children under the age of 4, relates to nutritional deficiencies of the Malay diet due to poverty and food habits. These deficiencies tend to weaken the children and render them more susceptible to fatal diseases. 13 It has also been explained that a larger proportion of the Malay mothers give birth at an extremely early age and these adolescent and childhood pregnancies probably carry additional risks of death to the infants. 14 Finally, some authorities seem to attribute the higher Malay mortality to superstitious practices involving pawangs and bomohs and hence not relying on modern medical facilities. 15 In this connection one must also take into consideration the fact that these facilities are not only inadequate but also not within easy access of the

1 2 The age-specific death rates provided in Table 7.9 were used to calculate the standardized rates by means of the direct method which employs the 1957 Census age distribution as the standard population. 13 Malaya, Report of the Medical Department, 1957 (Kuala Lumpur: Government Printer, 1958). 1 4 T. A. Lloyd Davies and R. Mills, "Young Mothers in Singapore," The Medical Journal of Malaya; Singapore: Malaya Branch of the British Medical Association, 1958. 1 5 See, for instance, T . E. Smith, Population Growth in Malaya, (London: Oxford University Press, 1952), p. 81.

105 TABLE 7.10 SELECTED CAUSES OF DEATHS FOR THE THREE MAIN RACES. 1963 (Rate: Number of deaths per 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 Population) Selected Causes 1. Senility without mention of psychosis, ill-defined and unknown causes (B45) 2. Cancer (B18 and B191 3. Diseases of the heart (B25, B26 & B27) 4. Infections of new born (B42, B43, B44) 5. Pneumonia (B31) 6. Tuberculosis of respiratory system (Bl) 7. Gastritis, duodenitis, enteritis and colitis, except diarrhoea of the new-born (B36) 8. Motor vehicle accidents (BE47) 9. Suicide and self-inflicted injuries (BE49) 10. Syphilis and its sequelae (B3) 11. Dysentery (B6)

Chinese

Malays

Indians

91.4 89.9 50.9 48.8 39.4 41.9

190.4 25.7 38.9 65.8 60.6 20.1

51.3 43.8 91.0 57.5 34.2 22.6

9.1 11.4 10.8 2.6 1.5

49.0 8.0 1.2 0.4 2.4

15.0 13.0 4.1 4.1 2.7

Malays especially those who live on the smaller islands. It is however gratifying to see that the last few years have witnessed a more rapid decrease in the death rates of the Malays, and the position is expected to improve further with the expansion of medical and public health amenities in the less urbanized regions and in the outlying islands. In addition to maternal mortality mentioned earlier, it would be instructive to study the differences in the rates of the other major causes of death among the three main races. While the reasons given in the previous paragraph might offer an explanation for some of the differences in these cause-specific rates, the differences themselves might in turn confirm the validity of the reasons offered. The extremely high Malay rate of 190.4 per 100,000 population for the first group of causes listed in Table 7.10 is to a large extent due to the greater number of ill-defined and unknown causes. A comparatively larger proportion of the Malay deaths were certified by non-medical personnel, most of whom were ordinary police officers. The major causes which are responsible for the heavier mortality of the Malays are infections of the new-born, pneumonia and, most important of all, the group embracing gastritis, duodenitis, enteritis and colitis. On account of their divergent social, cultural and economic backgrounds, the three races exhibit a completely different pattern in the relative importance in the causes of death. Leaving out the first group on the list from our comparison, the foremost cause of death is cancer among the Chinese as against infections of the new-born among the Malays and diseases of the heart among the Indians. The next important cause is diseases

106 of the heart among the Chinese, pneumonia among the Malays, and infections of the new-born among the Indians. In fact the cause of death is never the same if we go down the line in descending order to the third, fourth, etc. in importance. What this amounts to is that each cause of death afflicts each of the three races to a different extent. The age-specific death rates recorded during the years 1961-63 can be conveniently summarized by the life table method to obtain measures of comparative longevity. The basis of these measures is a closed cohort for each of the population groups under examination which is assumed to be subject throughout life to the death rates of that period. While the methodological aspects of the abridged life tables are outlined in detail in Appendix One, it is proposed here to comment on some of the important results of the calculations. The most common measure of the comparative longevity of different populations is perhaps the average duration of life or the expectation of life at birth. Table 7.11 underlines the significant variation in the expectation of life at birth between the three races—67.0 years for the Chinese, 62.7 for

TABLE

7.11

EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT SELECTED AGES FOR THREE MAIN RACES, 1961-63 Chinese

Malays

Indians

Female

Male

0

63.2

70.6

62.1

63.2

65.6

65.3

1

64.1

71.2

64.7

65.0

67.0

66.0

2

63.3

70.4

64.4

64.6

66.2

65.3

3

62.5

69.5

63.8

63.9

65.3

64.4

4

61.5

68.6

62.9

63.2

64.3

63.4

Female

Male

Female

Male

5

60.6

67.7

62.1

62.2

63.4

62.5

10

55.8

63.0

57.4

57.5

58.8

57.7

15

51.0

58.1

52.6

52.8

54.0

52.9

20

46.3

53.3

48.0

48.0

49.3

48.0

25

41.6

48.5

43.4

43.4

44.6

43.3

30

36.9

43.7

38.7

38.8

40.0

38.6

35

32.3

39.0

34.0

34.2

35.2

34.0

40

27.8

34.4

29.3

29.8

30.6

29.4

45

23.4

29.9

25.0

25.6

26.3

25.0

50

19.3

25.5

20.8

21.5

22.3

20.9

55

15.7

21.5

17.2

18.0

18.6

17.6

60

12.4

17.6

14.0

14.8

15.1

14.4

65

9.9

14.2

11.3

11.9

11.9

11.3

70

7.6

10.9

8.9

9.2

9.0

8.7

75

5.8

8.3

6.7

7.1

6.9

6.6

80

4.2

6.0

5.0

5.3

5.2

4.9

85

3.0

4.3

3.6

3.8

3.8

3.6

107 the Malays and 65.5 for the Indians, based on a simple average of the two figures for males and females. But this comparison is to a great extent affected by the relatively large number of deaths occuring in the first year of life, which may be completely eliminated by considering instead the life expectancy at age one. In this case the difference is somewhat smaller, 2.7 years instead of 4.2 between the Chinese and the alays and 1.1 years instead of 2.7 between the former and the Indians. According to the life expectancy at birth quoted just now, the Chinese are obviously the healthiest and are expected to live the longest of all the three races, the Malays relatively the least long, and the Indians slightly less long than the Chinese. The difference in life expectancy at the various ages between the sexes of each race is another interesting aspect of the table. In common with most populations with a light or moderately light mortality, a higher life expectancy is shown for females than for males at all ages in the case of the Chinese and the Malays. 16 However, there is a distinct difference. This sex differential is by far more pronounced among the Chinese than among the Malays, as exemplified by the difference at birth of 7.3 years for the former and 1.1 years for the latter. Moreover, for the Malays the disparity between the sexes disappears completely in the twenties mainly on account of the heavier toll of maternal deaths. In so far as the Indian population is concerned, the higher life expectancy for males than for females stands out as a unique characteristic that is seldom perceived in other populations of the world. The very fact that this feature is prevalent among Indian communities in other countries 17 with diverse environmental backgrounds strongly suggests that the explanation lies in deep-rooted socio-economic factors such as food customs, maternal child welfare, and attitudes towards women in so far as they affect their health conditions. For purposes of comparing mortality conditions in Singapore and some other countries, the most convenient indices are the infant mortality rate and the average expectation of life at birth. The former would provide a rough index for comparing health conditions, while the latter would give an idea of the variation in overall mortality. Among the countries included 16 United Nations, Age and Sex Patterns of Mortality: Model Life-Tables for Under-Developed Countries, S T / S O A / Series A, Population Studies N o . 22 (New York: Department of Social Affairs, 1955), pp. 16-21. 17 See for instance, Kingsley Davies, The Population of India and Pakistan (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1951); N. K. Sarkar, The Demography of Ceylon (Ceylon: Government Press, 1957); and Saw Swee-Hock, The Demography of Malaya, with special reference to Race Differentials, Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis submitted to the London School of Economics.

108 TABLE 7.12

INFANT MORTALITY RATES AND EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES

Country

Infant Mortality Rate

Life Expectancy at Birth

Sweden Netherland Denmark England and Wales Japan United States Canada Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong Bulgaria Greece Hungary Poland Romania Malaya El Salvador Yugoslavia Columbia Albania Peru Chile

15 16 19 21 23 25 26 26 28 33 36 39 43 49 55 57 68 78 88 91 95 111

73.4 73.1 72.1 71.0 68.7 70.1 71.3 63.5 66.5 67.1

Year 1962 1956-60 1956-60 1960-62 1962 1962 1961 1959-60 1961-63 1961

—

—

—

—

67.4 67.6 56.6 —

63.0 —

64.8 —

51.9

1959-60 1960-61 1955-58 —

1958-59 —

1960-61 —

1952

Source: U.N. Demographic Yearbooks.

in Table 7.12, the infant mortality rate of 28 per 1,000 live-births for Singapore was somewhere close to the lowest rates. While very satisfactory by comparison with most underdeveloped countries, there is still scope for reducing Singapore's rate in the future before it approaches the lowest level as found in Sweden or the Netherlands. We have however seen that in the last few years the declining trend has tended to level off somewhat, and very strenuous efforts would have to be expanded before the health authorities could induce substantial falls in the rate. The position regarding Singapore's life expectancy at birth does not seem to be so favorable. For instance, countries such as Poland, Puerto Rico and Hong Kong which have a higher infant mortality rate than Singapore are recording higher life expectancy at birth. The life expectancy at birth for Singapore can still be raised by at least 7 years before the best levels so far attained are reached; the 73.4 years for Sweden is apparently the highest on record.

LABOR FORCE

The labor force of a country is that section of the population which is engaged in the production of economic goods and services during a particular period. In Singapore by far the most complete and comprehensive statistics on the labor force are those compiled in a population census since there is no well-developed system of collecting these figures through routine administrative procedures. By means of census documents, an attempt will be made to study the size and composition of the labor force in terms of various socio-demographic factors. In addition, part of this chapter will be devoted to an appraisal of the industrial and occupational patterns of the labor force which would in a way reflect the manner in which the people of the island earn their living.

I. Concepts and Definitions The collection, classification and tabulation of the 1957 census data on the economic characteristics of the population have been based on the recommendations of the United Nations Secretariat, 1 with a few modifications to suit local conditions. The total population ten years of age and over 2 was divided into two broad categories of economic activity status— 1

At the time of preparing the 1957 Census all the then available United Nations publications on census methods were consulted by the authorities. The main document used in connection with the collection of data on working population is the one entitled Application of International Standards of Census Data on the Economically Active Population, ST/SOA/Series A, Population Studies No. 9 (New York, 1952). This has since been superseded by Handbook of Population Census Methods Volume 11: Economic Characteristics of the Population, Series F, No. 5, Rev. 1, Studies in Methods (New York, 1958). 2 It is conventional to obtain information on working population from persons above a certain age, usually ten and over or fifteen and over, even where there is no legislation governing the minimum age for employment. In the 1957 Census the lower minimum age of ten years was adopted in order to take account of child-labor.

110 those who were economically active and those who were economically inactive during the reference week. The reference week for an individual covered the seven days prior to the day on which he was enumerated in the preliminary enumeration which extended from May 20 to about June 10, which implies that the reference week need not be identical for all persons. 3 The economically active population comprised both persons who were working during the reference week and persons who were not working but looking for work. Working was defined as being directly engaged in the production of economic goods and services for sale to the public, while looking for work was defined as registering at a labor exchange, answering advertisements, applying in any other way to prospective employers for employment, or taking steps to start one's own business. Those who were working constituted the employed and those who were not working but looking for work, the unemployed. The former group included persons who were actually working as well as persons who had jobs but were absent from work during the reference week because of sickness, leave, strike, bad weather, etc., and would be returning to work in good time. The unemployed comprised persons who had worked previously and were looking for jobs as well as those who had never worked before and were looking for jobs for the first time. On the other hand, the economically inactive population comprised all persons who were not working and not looking for work during the reference week. They were persons doing home housework without pay, students, unpaid voluntary social workers, inmates of penal, mental or charitable institutions, retired persons, persons permanently disabled, persons deriving their income from rent, dividend, interest, etc., and all other persons not engaged in economic activities. In the 1957 Census the labor-force approach was used to classify the population aged ten and over into economically active and economically inactive persons. In this approach all persons of relevant age were asked to state whether they were working and, if not, whether they were actively looking for work during the reference week. Those returned as working or as not working but looking for work during the reference week were included in the economically active population, regardless of their normal economic activity status at other times. The labor-force approach is a comparatively recent innovation which was adopted in Singapore for the 3 For a few persons whose particulars were not recorded until the final enumeration on June, 18th/19th, the reference week referred to the seven days immediately prior to the census night.

Ill

first time in the 1957 Census. The older concept is the gainful-worker approach which was used in all the previous censuses in Singapore. In this approach the individual is required to state his "occupation" and tabulations are made on the basis of persons whose occupations come within the concept of gainful worker. The gainful-worker approach has two main advantages, viz., it requires less complex census questions and instructions, and the data collected are less affected by temporary conditions at the time of enumeration. The main advantage of the labor-force approach is that unemployed persons are considered as economically active and can be presented as a separate category distinct from the employed category. On balance the newer labor-force approach is preferred in most national censuses conducted nowadays. For purposes of studying the economic structure of the population, the economically active population has been tabulated according to industry, occupation and status. Industry refers to the activity of the firm, establishment or department in which the person was employed or to the kind of business the person operated. The description of an industry usually indicates either the products handled and the process involved such as growing, making, wholesale selling and retail selling, or the kind of service rendered by the firm, establishment, department or business concerned. The information on industry was classified according to the Malayan Industrial Classification, 1957 which was prepared jointly by the Statistics Departments of Singapore and Malaya, and was based on the International Standard Classification of All Economic Activities with a few adjustments to meet local requirements. 4 The most important modification is that processing, packing and grading of rubber, the production of palm oil, copra, coconut oil and toddy, and manufacture of tea, whether on estates or factories, have been included in agriculture rather than in manufacture. 5 This was considered to be more appropriate in so far as Malaya was concerned because the cultivating, processing and manufacturing of rubber are in most instances performed simultaneously on the rubber estates, and it would be rather difficult to differentiate the various stages of producing rubber. Singapore has followed Malaya by adopting this change in order to maintain uni-

4 United Nations, International Standard Series M, N o . 4, Add. 1, April 1956 (New 1956). This document has since been revised 1, Add. 1, 1958. 6 S . C. Chua, Singapore: Report on the Government Printer, 1964). p. 82.

Classification of All Economic Activities York: United Nations Statistical Office, and appears under Series M, No. 4, Rev. Census

of Population

1957

(Singapore:

112 formity in classification in both territories. However, one should bear in mind that in Singapore such activities connected with rubber, coconut oil and tea are primarily carried out in factories and shops, an integral part of the entrepot trade, and it would have been more appropriate to include these activities as manufacturing rather than in agriculture.6 The occupation of a person is defined as the trade or profession followed or the type of work performed. In case of a person with two or more occupations, the one in which he spent most of his working time is taken as his principal occupation, and he is included among those with only one occupation. In the census tables classification according to the secondary occupation of persons was also completed.7 The data on occupation were classified according to the Malayan Classification of Occupations, 1957 which was prepared jointly by the Statistics Departments of Malaya and Singapore; the classification was based on the International Classification of Occupations 8 with a few changes to accommodate local conditions. Status refers to the status of an individual with respect to his employment, that is, whether he is an employer, worker on own account, unpaid family worker, or employee. An employer may be defined as a person engaged in his own business with the help of people whom he employs. An own-account worker refers to a person engaged in his own business or farm but without the help of any paid employees. An unpaid family worker refers to a family worker or a worker in the family business not receiving any fixed monthly or periodic wage or salary. Finally, an employee is defined as a person employed by any government, public or private body, firm or person for payment in money or in kind. II. Economic Activity Status of Population Of the total population of 1,445,929 enumerated in the 1957 Census, 963,105 persons, about 66 per cent, were ten years of age and over, and their economic activity status is laid out in Table 8.1. It can be seen that 482,838 or about one-half were economically inactive. Of these, 56.4 per cent were home houseworkers and 31.7 per cent were full-time students, thus accounting for nearly 90 per cent of all economically inactive persons. 6 Saw Swee-Hock and Ronald Ma, "The Economic Characteristics of the Population of Singapore, 1957," Malayan Economic Review, Vol. V, No. 1, April 1960, p. 35. 7 S. C. Chua, op. cit., pp. 2 5 2 - 2 5 3 . 8 International Standard Classification of Occupations (Geneva: International Labour Office, 1954).

113 TABLE 8.1 DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION AGED 10 AND OVER BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY STATUS AND SEX, 1957

Economic Activity Status

Number

Percentage

Total

Males

Females

Total

Male

480,267 482,838

393,797 120,221

86,470 362,617

49.9 50.1

76.6 23.4

19.3 80.7

963,105

514,018

449,087

100.0

100.0

100.0

Home Houseworker Full-Time Students Inmates of Institutions Pensioners & Persons with Private Means Others

272,119 153,193 4,456

2,106 92,803 2,947

270,013 60,390 1,509

56.4 31.7 0.9

1.8 77.2 2.5

74.5 16.7 0.4

2,313 50,757

1,788 20,577

525 30,180

0.5 10.5

1.5 17.1

0.1 8.3

Total Economically Inactive

482,838

120,221

362,617

100.0

100.0

100.0

Economically Active Economically Inactive Total

Females

The remaining one-tenth comprises largely unpaid social workers, persons unable to work because of physical disabilities or permanent illness, inmates in institutions, pensioners and persons with private means. A more important feature of the table concerns the very marked differences between the sexes. About three-fourths of the economically inactive females were home houseworkers as compared with the corresponding percentage of about 2 per cent for the males. On the other hand, the proportion of fulltime students amounted to about 77 per cent for the boys as against 17 per cent for the girls. This sex discrimination in education may be traced to social attitudes, to economic considerations in particularly large families, and possibly to a shortage of schooling facilities. As for the economically active population, there were four and a half times as many men as women. Most of the women, as noted just now, were home houseworkers. By tradition women are supposed to look after the house and children, and are normally not expected to earn to support themselves and their family. In addition to this, employment opportunities for women have always been restricted; many jobs are suitable for men only; for others men are preferred; and also there are relatively few qualified women. Some employers discriminate against women workers. In Table 8.2 is presented an analysis of the economically active population in terms of the four main categories of employment levels, namely, employed, underemployed, unemployed but worked before, and unemployed but never worked before. Underemployed persons refer to those who were

114 T A B L E 8.2

PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION BY CATEGORIES OF EMPLOYMENT, RACE AND SEX, 1957 Categories of Employment

Total

Males

Females

All R a c e s Employed

94.8

95.0

Underemployed

0.2

0.1

0.4

Unemployed: w o r k e d before

3.3

3.3

3.2

1.7

1.5

2.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

Employed

94.8 0.2 3.4 1.6

never worked before

93.8

Chinese Underemployed Unemployed: w o r k e d before never worked before Total

100.0

95.0 0.1 3.6 1.3

94.0 0.4 3.2 2.4

100.0

100.0

Malays Employed Underemployed Unemployed: worked before never worked before

93.3

93.5

90.8

0.1

0.1

0.1

3.3

3.3

3.8

3.3

3.1

5.3

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

Employed

95.7

96.1

90.1

Underemployed

0.1

0.1

0.2

Unemployed: w o r k e d before

3.0

3.8

3.1

1.2

1.0

6.5

100.0

100.0

100.0

Indians

never worked before Total

working less than fifteen hours during the reference week. Among those who were enumerated as economically active, about 94.8 per cent were returned as employed and only 0.2 per cent as underemployed. The very low level of underemployment may be explained by the fact that less than 9 per cent of the working population were engaged in agriculture where most of the underemployed persons were to be found. The remaining 5 per cent were unemployed, with 3.3 per cent who had worked previously and 1.7 per cent never worked before. The latter represents the new entrants into the labor market. Only small differences are discernible between the sexes, but the females recorded a higher proportion of unemployed looking for work for the first time, a manifestation of the growing tendency among women to seek paid work outside their homes.

115 There are strong grounds to suspect that the 5 per cent level of unemployment at mid-195 7 or thereabouts as determined by the labor-force approach in the 1957 Census was an underestimate. It has been indicated, that for a person to be included in the unemployed category, he must be not working but actively looking for work. In many instances the unemployed tended to help out in their family or relatives' businesses, such as shops, small stalls or farms, in return for their keep until such time as they should find employment. Such persons would, according to the census definitions, be classified as unpaid family workers in the employed category and not as not working and looking for work. Another reason is that unemployed persons in great financial difficulties tended to accept casual work without paying undue attention to the remuneration and nature of the work. By census definitions if they happen to be engaged in casual work even for a few hours only during the reference week, they would be classified as employed though they are in fact unemployed in the commonly accepted sense of the word. Furthermore, to be classified as unemployed a person must be actively looking for work, but it is possible that the person who is not working may not be actively looking for work in the sense that he is not aware of any opportunities. In extreme cases, his despondency, laziness, shyness or financially sound position may lead him to wait passively for jobs to come his way. Under such conditions the term 'actively looking for work' is liable to be misconstrued and these persons would be classified as economically inactive. Coming back to Table 8.2, the figures for the three races show that the highest level of unemployment was recorded by the Malays (6.3 per cent), as compared to the Chinese (5.0 per cent), or the Indians (4.2 per cent). In contrast with the other two races which recorded a larger proportion of unemployed persons who had worked before, the total unemployed for the Malays was equally split between those who had worked before and those who had never worked previously. While nothing very unusual can be seen in the male figures, there are at least two significant differences underlying the female figures. First, the unemployment level of 9.1 per cent for the Malay women and 9.6 per cent for the Indian women are extremely serious as compared with the corresponding figure of only 5.6 per cent for the Chinese women. Second, with regard to the two unemployed components the Malay women and the Indian women have a larger proportion of unemployed looking for jobs for the first time, which partly explains the first difference. We can therefore conclude that our earlier statement regarding the growing tendency among the women in Singapore to seek employment outside their homes took place primarily among the Malay and the Indian

116 communities. However, we should not discount the possibility that the Chinese women who seek employment actually find jobs more easily than the Malay or Indian women. The points raised in this paragraph may also be explained in terms of the reasons advanced earlier to account for the possible underestimation of the unemployment figures.

III. Demographic Aspects of Working Population The amount of labor available for the production of goods and services in a country is determined by a variety of demographic, social and economic factors. The size of the total population and its composition with respect to sex and age constitute the maximum limits of the number of persons who can participate in economic activities. Other factors such as the race composition, degree of urbanization and proportion of married women also play an important part in influencing the proportion of population which will be represented in certain age groups in the working population. Among the more important economic and social factors are the industrial structure of the economy, the mode and organization of production, the per capita income, and traditional attitudes towards working women and children. Generally speaking, demographic factors are the principal determinants of the size of the male labor force because by tradition all men are engaged in some form of gainful work from the time they reach adulthood until they approach the retiring age, while socio-economic factors seem to exert a greater influence on the size of the female labor force. The emergence of widespread concern over the serious unemployment problem in the late 1950's has enhanced the importance of studying the trends in the size and composition of the labor force in Singapore. Marital

Status

The figures given in Table 8.3 reveal that about 95 per cent of the labor force were either single or married, 35.7 per cent single and 59.0 per cent married. 4.9 per cent were widowed and 0.4 per cent divorced, the latter being merely a reflection of the low incidence of divorce in Singapore. A markedly different pattern may be seen to exist between the sexes. Among the female labor force, about 39 per cent were married women as compared with the 64 per cent of married men in the male labor force. This may be attributed partly to marriage and/or childbearing preventing women from entering the labor force or causing them to withdraw from the labor force, and partly to the lesser economic necessity for married women to work. One more interesting variation concerns the extremely large pro-

117 TABLE 8.3 PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION BY MARITAL STATUS, RACE AND SEX, 1957 Marital Status

Total

Males

Females

Single Married Widowed Divorced

35.7 59.0 4.9 0.4

All Races 34.0 63.5 2.2 0.3

43.3 38.5 17.2 0.9

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

Single Married Widowed Divorced

37.1 56.7 5.9 0.3

Chinese 35.1 62.3 2.4 0.2

44.2 37.4 17.7 0.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

Single Married Widowed Divorced

30.8 65.3 2.6 1.3

Malays 31.3 66.1 1.7 0.9

23.8 53.2 16.9 6.1

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

Single Married Widowed Divorced

31.6 65.6 2.1 2.8

Indians 31.7 66.1 1.9 0.3

31.0 54.2 13.4 1.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

portion of 17 per cent widowed women as compared with 2 per cent widowed men. There are two reasons for this, one is that the women have a higher life expectancy and the other is that the widowed women do have a more pressing need to work in order to support themselves and their children. An examination of the rest of the data presented in Table 8.3 will show that among the men of the three races the proportion of married was about twice that of single, but the Chinese men appeared to have a somewhat lower proportion of married and a higher proportion of single. The latter tendency is so pronounced among the Chinese women that the position is completely reversed with a larger proportion of single—44.2 per cent—than married—37.4 per cent. The reason underlying the unusual

118 characteristic of the Chinese is the higher average age at marriage of the women as well as the men. Besides the slightly lower proportion of widowed among the Indian women caused by the lower life expectancy for Indian women than men, the other noteworthy point is in respect to the large proportion of divorced women in the Malay female labor force. This is obviously connected with the extremely high rate of divorce experienced by this particular community.

Literacy It is fortunate that tabulation of the labor force by literacy in the main languages has also been made available in the 1957 Census, thus enabling one to obtain a greater insight into the dynamics of the labor force in Singapore. Literacy was defined as the ability to read and write a simple letter, and in the enumeration stage the declaration of ability to read and write was accepted without any test. The literacy rates presented in Table 8.4 were calculated on the basis of the percentage of persons in the labor force able to read and write the languages in question. According to the data the general literacy rate in any language for the labor force as a whole was 60.5 per cent, which was higher than the corresponding rate of 52.3 per cent for the total population ten years of age and over. This gap underlines TABLE 8.4 LITERACY RATE OF ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION BY RACE AND SEX, 1957 Literacy Rate

Total

Males

Females

Literate in any language Literate in English Literate in other languages

60.5 21.4 50.6

All Races 66.5 22.4 56.8

33.2 16.9 22.6

Literate Literate Literate Literate

in in in in

any language English Chinese other languages

52.2 16.4 43.2 0.7

Chinese 58.7 17.2 49.5 0.7

29.8 13.3 15.7 0.6

Literate Literate Literate Literate

in in in in

any language English Malay other languages

79.0 27.4 77.2 0.5

Malays 82.0 28.5 80.2 0.5

35.0 12.3 32.8 0.4

Literate Literate Literate Literate

in in in in

any language English Tamil other languages

80.4 28.0 55.0 13.4

Indians 81.1 27.6 55.7 13.6

58.6 44.7 33.8 4.7

119 an important characteristic of the labor force which comprised persons with greater skills in terms of literacy and its attendant effects. As for the men in the labor force, they appeared to be twice as literate as the women due primarily to sex discrimination in education, one of the factors responsible for the smaller number of women in the labor force. It can be further seen that this disparity between the sexes was somewhat small in English but extremely conspicuous in the other languages—namely Chinese, Malay and Tamil. The explanation lies in the fact that sex discrimination in education is less serious among the English educated parents or among those educated in their own language who decided to send their children to English schools. As for the three races, one can hardly fail to see the high and almost similar level of general literacy for the Malays and the Indians, about 80 per cent as compared with the low rate of 52 per cent for the Chinese. However, the three races have something in common, a higher literacy rate in their own language than in English or other languages. The Malays are particularly striking in this respect. By and large every race recorded a higher literacy rate in the various languages among the men than among the women, the only exception being the higher rate in English for the Indian women, mostly school teachers in English schools. Economic

Activity

Rates

A simple method of measuring the extent of participation of the population in economic activities is the crude economic activity rate which may be defined as the percentage of the working population among the total population of all ages. This rate gives us an idea of the proportion of the population who supply the labor on which the economic life of the country depends. We can also use the rate to measure the magnitude of the dependency burden that has to be borne by the working persons in the population. Thus a rate of about 33 per cent in 1957 may be taken to mean that each worker in Singapore has an average of two dependents to support. As may be observed in Table 8.5, the past three and a half decades witnessed a continuous reduction in the crude economic activity rate, falling as it did from 56 per cent in 1921 to 33 per cent in 1957. The impressive drop registered during the first decade is not at all surprising considering the wide-spread unemployment around the beginning of the 1930's resulting from the world depression. 9 Over the same period the rate for each of a

In the 1931 Census the method of identifying the economically active population was the gainful-worker approach which put the unemployed persons in the economically inactive population.

120 T A B L E 8.5

CRUDE AND STANDARIZED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY RATES BY RACE, 1921-1957 Race

1921

1931

1947

1957

Singapore

56.0

42.7

38.0

33.2

Chinese Malays Indians

57.1 41.7 76.1

48.3 36.0 74.8

35.9 36.2 61.9

31.7 29.1 51.1

Singapore

38.8

Standardized Rate 36.4 33.3

33.2

Chinese Malays Indians

40.0 34.9 60.7

35.9 26.7 59.5

31.7 29.1 51.1

Crude Rate

31.6 31.6 53.6

the three races also registered a downward movement, with however one important difference in that the decline has been somewhat faster for the Chinese and the Indians. This is not unexpected in view of the decreasing proportion of the population in the working ages and the continuous improvement in the abnormal sex ratio of more men than women engendered by natural increase replacing migration as the prime factor of population growth. However, the general downward trend did not reflect an increase in the dependency burden to the same extent; what had happened was that this trend was partly caused by a greater number of the workers' dependents being domiciled in Singapore instead of China or India. Included in the lower section of Table 8.5 are the standardized rates 10 which are designed to eliminate the effects of the changing age composition and thus represent a truer picture of the long-term trends in the actual degree of participation in economic activities among different populations. According to these rates the fall in the degree of economic participation is in every case less steep, and the Chinese appear to have experienced the greatest reduction. Later entry into the labor force in order to acquire a better education and earlier retirement are the most likely reasons for the steady diminution in the degree of economic participation over the years. For a better understanding of the size and composition of the present labor force, it is necessary to examine the differences in economic activity rates experienced by the subgroups of the population, as presented in Table 8.6. One striking point is the extremely high rate of about 51 per cent These rates are computed by means of the indirect method using the relevant age-specific economic activity rates for 1957 as the standard. 10

121 TABLE 8.6 CRUDE AND STANDARDIZED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY RATES BY SEX AND RACE, 1957 Race

Total

Males

Females

Chinese

48.2

Malays

31.7 29.1

52.0

3.4

Indians

51.1

71.5

4.0

Chinese Malays

31.8

49.4

14.2

29.8

4.2

Indians

40.6

48.3 51.2

Crude Rate 14.6

Standardized Rate

4.8

recorded by the Indians, resulting partly from the abnormal sex ratio of three men to every woman and from the relatively large working-age population. This does not necessarily imply that their dependency problem is comparatively light because many Indians working in Singapore contribute towards the support of their families in India. No significant difference is noticeable among the Chinese with about 3 2 per cent and the Malays with about 2 9 per cent. As in most other countries the women in Singapore recorded economic activity rates that are far lower than those of the men. This universal difference between the sexes is conditioned by two deep-rooted traditional norms. Firstly, women are not expected to earn as a matter of course in order to support themselves and their families and secondly, childbearing, nurturing children and housekeeping tend to keep women away from gainful work. This pattern of behaviour is particularly conspicuous among the Malays and the Indians, for the former the rates were 5 2 . 0 and 3.4 per cent and for the latter they were 7 1 . 5 and 4 . 0 per cent. On the other hand, the rates for the Chinese men and women came to 4 8 . 2 and 14.6 per cent. T h e reason for this unique feature of the labor force of the Chinese women lies in the relatively larger proportion of working spinsters noted earlier. This is in turn related to the relatively higher age at marriage among the Chinese girls who can therefore work for a longer period before they withdraw from the labor force with the onset of family responsibilities. Since the crude rate is affected by the age composition of the population it is advisable to examine the standardized rates, 1 1 also included in

1 1 I n calculating these rates by the direct method the 1957 total population by quinary age groups for Singapore was used as the standard, thus comparisons between any sex-race components m a y be made.

122 Table 8.6. The standardized rates seem to confirm the relative position of the three races, but the degree of economic participation of the Indians is not as much higher than the other two races as is suggested by the crude rate. In a way this indicates that the relatively larger proportion of workingage population has operated to inflate the Indian crude rate considerably. Furthermore, the disparity between the degree of economic participation between the sexes is in fact smaller than the crude rates suggest in the case of the Malays and the Indians but slightly greater in the case of the Chinese. Variation in Rates by Age The data presented in Table 8.7 illustrate the wide variation in economic activity rates throughout the working age range. Ignoring the figure for the first age group for the time being, we see that the rate for the 1 5 - 1 9 age group amounts to 4 2 per cent, and rises sharply to above the 60 level as the late twenties is attained and stays above this level until the early fifties after which it declines rapidly to 6.8 per cent in the last age group. A distinctive pattern of variation with age exists for each sex, as may be clearly seen in Chart 8.1. For the males the rate rises steeply at the young ages to a shade above the 9 0 level at early twenties and remains around the neighbourhood of 98 through ages 25 to 49, after which it falls slowly as disabilities gradually remove men from the labor force. This pattern merely reflects our traditional attitude that unless a man is sick or permanently disabled he should work even though he is wealthy. TABLE 8.7 AGE-SPECIFIC

E C O N O M I C ACTIVITY RATES BY SEX.

1957

Age Group

Total

Males

Females

10-14 15-19

6.4 42.0

7.4 59.4

23.4

20-24

58.6

92.3

22.9

25-29

60.1

98.0

16.4

30-34

62.6

35-39

64.5

98.6 98.5

20.8

40-44

66.8 67.9

98.0

26.2

96.9

50-54 55-59

65.4

30.1 28.8

57.9

93.5 85.1

60-64

41.8

66.9

17.1

65-69 70-74

27.7 14.9

49.7

10.5

30.9

4.7

6.8

17.4

2.0

45-49

7 5 & Over

5.2

17.3

24.7

123

The figures for the females differ in two major respects—they are appreciably lower at all ages and the progression of the curve follows quite a different path. From the young ages the rate rises to slightly above 23 per cent in the late teens and immediately dips down a bit in the early twenties and continues till the late twenties; it then rises again until the peak of 30 per cent is reached in the late forties after which it falls again. Withdrawal of women from the labor force on account of marriage or childbearing is responsible for the dip, while subsequent re-entry after the children are older or on becoming widows causes the second rise in the early thirties. The existence of child-labor as underlined by the first age group is typical of a young population like Singapore's where this is a means of offsetting the heavy young dependency burden. Since a very large propor-

124 tion of the population is in the young age group, a fairly small increase in the percentage employed between 10 to 14 would result in a substantial rise in the actual number of workers. The number amounted to 8,704 in 1957. Moreover, with a comparatively large number of children most families would find it financially difficult to extend their children's education into the late adolescent years, and they therefore tend to put their children to work at an early age, which helps them to lighten the dependency burden through the extra income. In Singapore there is no legal minimum age for workers and for children to leave school. However, as per capita income rises and as education becomes compulsory the proportion of child-labor is expected to be reduced. Several differences in the age pattern of activity rates are displayed by the three races in Table 8.8. In so far as child-labor among girls is concerned the proportion for the Chinese and the Indians is twice that of the Malays, but among boys the Chinese proportion is about six times larger than the Malays or the Indians. At age sixty onwards the difference in the male pattern is such that the highest rates are recorded among the Indians and the lowest the Chinese; the female pattern shows less clear-cut differences. As for the highest peak ever recorded, the Chinese men attained 98.2 per cent in the early thirties, the Malay men 99.1 per cent in the same age group, and the Indian men 99.4 per cent in the late thirties. These are some of the important differences in details. TABLE 8 . 8 AGE-SPECIFIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY RATES BY RACE A N D SEX,

Chinese

1957

Indians

Malays

Age Group Total

Male

Female

Total

Male

Female

Total

Male

Female

7.1

8.0

6.2

2.8

4.2

1.3

4.9

7.9

1.0

59.7

27.7

34.5

65.4

5.4

39.3

60.8

4.2

20-24

43.7 59.1

90.6

27.6

52.8

67.1

5.7

63.1

95.9

8.1

25-29

57.5

97.4

18.5

56.4

98.8

6.6

76.6

99.1

8.4

30-34

58.3

98.2

19.0

60.9

99.1

8.3

82.9

99.3

10.2

35-39

59.9

98.0

22.7

62.9

99.0

10.3

85.3

64.2

97.6

28.7

61.7

98.8

10.8

87.4

99.4 99.1

10.3

40-44 45-49

66.6

96.6

33.1

57.6

9.5

87.9

98.4

13.1

50-54

64.1

93.0

31.4

57.3

96.4 92.9

7.5

85.4

96.3

8.8

55-59

56.6

84.5

26.8

51.2

82.1

6.9

80.6

92.6

8.6

60-64 65-69

40.9

65.9

38.2

67.2

4.4

63.8

77.7

6.1

26.7

48.5

18.4 11.1

29.1

52.9

4.1

47.9

13.6

27.7

4.8

18.7

35.8

2.7

5.6

15.2

1.9

9.7

19.6

2.7

33.9 23.2

62.3 46.0

3.7

70-74

32.0

1.7

10-14 15-19

7 5 & Over

10.0

2.6

CHART 8.2 AGE-SPECIFIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY RATES BY RACE AND SEX, 1957

UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA

126 A casual look at Chart 8.2 is sufficient to indicate that the variation in the extent of participation in economic activity over the age range as a whole is negligible and uninteresting for the men. But impressive contrasts prevail among the women. A surprising feature of the Malay women is the failure to register a dip at any age group at all; instead a steady rise from 1.3 per cent in the youngest ages to the peak of 10.8 per cent in the early forties is apparent. T h e most plausible explanation is that about one-half of the Malay women worked as domestic servants, an occupation where changes in marital status or towards greater responsibilities in household duties do not have the usual disruptive influence on women continuing in employment. Another reason may be the high divorce rate among the Malays. Some Malay women would enter the labor force for the first time after their husbands divorced them in order to earn some money to keep themselves and their children, while others who had stopped working after their marriage would re-enter the labor force. Though a dip does occur among the women of the other two races, the similarity seems to end there. T h e rate for the Indian women rises from the youngest ages to 10.2 per cent in the early thirties and after leveling off a bit it dips gently to 10.0 per cent in the early forties, then it rises to the peak in the late forties and decreases consistently to the last age group. With regard to the Chinese women, the rate is seen to rise extremely steeply from 6.2 per cent in the first age group to 27.7 per cent in the late teens and then dips down to the trough in the late thirties; from here it rises again to reach the peak of 33 per cent in the late forties after which it falls fairly rapidly. T h e curve of the Chinese women is therefore characterized by three striking features—the high proportion working in the late teens and early twenties, the large volume of withdrawals in the next ten years or so, and, most significant of all, the unmistakable re-entry into the labor force in later years. This pattern of activity rates is known to exist in some of the developed countries in the West. 1 2

IV. Industrial Structure The classification of the working population by occupation serves to indicate the degree and nature of the division of labor, while the classification by industry serves to underline the integration of occupations and the

12 United Nations, Demographic Aspects of Manpower: Report 1—Sex and Age Patterns of Participation in Economic Activities, S T / S O A / Series A , Population Studies N o . 33 ( N e w Y o r k : Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1962).

127 type of units into which work is organized. In many aspects an investigation into the industrial and occupational patterns of the labor force will reveal how the people in Singapore are organized to earn their livelihood in the production of goods and services. In studying the industrial structure in this section it is important to bear in mind some of the major problems encountered in the collection and tabulation of the working population by industry. There is the problem of frequent changes of industry among certain types of workers, which tend to reduce the accuracy of the information collected. Though this problem never reached an alarming proportion, it was nevertheless seen to occur in the 1957 Census among casual and contract workers in particular. A more serious problem arises from the non-specialized nature of industries in Singapore. Many large firms perform a variety of functions, such as those of importers and exporters, brokers, estate agents, building contractors, and so on. In these cases it is not so easy to decide to which industry the individuals belonged. While unemployed persons who had worked previously were classified according to their previous industry, those who had never worked before did not have even a previous industry and were therefore excluded from the industrial classification. In evaluating the long-term changes in the industrial structure, it is proposed to present the statistics in terms of the three broad traditional groups, namely, primary, secondary and tertiary. Primary industries arc defined to include agriculture, mining, fishing, hunting and forestry; secondary industries include manufacture, building and construction; and tertiary industries include electricity, gas, water and sanitary services, commerce, transport, storage and communication, and services. The percentage distribution of the labor force according to this three-fold classification presented in Table 8.9 will help to pinpoint the changing pattern in which the manpower resources have been utilized. Since the economy of Singapore is an entrepot one serving the Malayan hinterland and the Southeast Asian region, most persons have, since the early days, earned their living in trade and commerce and allied servicing industries in the tertiary sector. The past few decades have witnessed a gradual swing away from employment in the primary sector, the proportion being reduced from 15.9 per cent in 1921 to 7.3 per cent in 1957. Accompanying this transformation was the increase in the relative importance of the other two sectors, with, however, one new element coming into play in recent years. As industrialization gathered momentum in the postwar years, the proportion employed in the secondary sector increased at the expense of the tertiary sector as well as the primary sector. This tendency has developed at a rapid pace

128 TABLE 8.9 DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE BY T H R E E MAIN INDUSTRIAL GROUPS. 1 9 2 1 - 1 9 5 7 Year

Primary

Secondary

1921 1931 1947 1957

33,981 32,771 30,277 34,298

37,277 43.391 67,324 98,836

1921 1931 1947 1957

15.9 13.7 8.5 7.3

17.4 18.2 18.8 20.9

Tertiary

Total

142,242 162,186 259,934 338,784

213,500 238,348 357,535 471,918

66.6 68.0 72.7 71.8

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Number

Percentage

since 1957. Concern in the late 1950's over the limitations of the entrepot economy in providing jobs for the ever-growing labor force focussed attention on industrialization as the most hopeful means of solving the employment problem, and resulted in the setting up of several industrial complexes, the largest of which is the Jurong Industrial Estate. A comparison of the industrial pattern of employment in Singapore with those in certain selected countries is set out in Table 8.10. With its heavy young dependency and unemployment problems, Singapore resembles many developing countries, but it is different in that the economy is not predominantly agrarian. At the same time, it also differs significantly from the developed countries which have a relatively higher proportion of the labor force engaged in the secondary sector. By and large, Singapore occupies a unique position in which about 72 per cent of the labor is concentrated in the tertiary sector, a reflection of the dominant role played by commerce, finance and services in the country's entrepot economy. The industrial pattern in Malaya is in many ways similar to those of the developing countries where more than 60 per cent of the working population seek their livelihood in the primary sector and the remainder are placed more in the tertiary than in the secondary sector. More typical examples of this type of industrial pattern are to be found in Sarawak and Sabah. Data for finer groupings reveals further differences in detail. Foremost of these is that agriculture provided jobs for about 55 per cent of the labor force in Malaya as compared with the corresponding figure of only 6 per cent in Singapore. Differences of lesser degree but of some economic significance are the higher proportions of employment provided by commerce, manufacturing and personal services in Singapore than in Malaya. The respective figures

129 TABLE 8.10 PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE BY THREE MAIN INDUSTRIAL GROUPS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES Country

Year

Primary

Secondary

Thailand Sarawak Sabah Indonesia India Ghana Malaya Philippines Egypt Taiwan Jamaica Venezuela Japan Chile France New Zealand Canada United States Hong Kong Singapore

1960 1960 1960 1961 1961 1960 1957 1960 1960 1956 1960 1961 1960 1960 1957 1956 1962 1960 1961 1957

84.1 82.2 80.8 73.6 72.3 63.5 61.8 61.5 58.5 57.7 37.8 36.4 34.1 33.4 27.9 17.1 12.6 8.5 8.2 7.3

4.0 5.5 6.3 7.6 11.7 12.7 9.7 15.2 11.4 14.5 23.0 18.8 27.9 25.6 34.1 33.8 33.1 36.5 49.0 20.9

Tertiary 11.9 12.3 12.9 18.8 16.0 23.8 28.5 23.3 30.1 27.8 39.2 44.8 38.0 41.0 38.0 49.1 54.3 54.8 42.8 71.8

for the two regions amounted to 26 per cent and 9 per cent in commerce, 16 per cent and 9 per cent in manufacturing, and 13 per cent and 5 per cent in personal services. The figures for Singapore are given in Table 8.11. A detailed analysis of the 1957 labor force in Singapore in terms of thirteen main industrial groups is presented in Table 8.11. Commerce alone was able to provide jobs for about one-quarter of the total labor force, with manufacturing taking up one-sixth, personal services one-eighth, and transport one-tenth. The remaining one-third was shared, quite unevenly, among the other nine industries. As to be expected, contrasting patterns were displayed by the opposite sexes on account of certain branches of economic activity being more or only, suitable, for one sex. Police and armed services, transport and commerce are good examples of industries which employ mainly men. The most outstanding example in respect to women is that of employment in personal services, mostly domestic service. The other two examples, but of lesser importance, are in agriculture especially in mixed farming, and in government and community services particularly in education and medical services. Somewhat similar divergent patterns between the sexes seem to prevail among the Chinese but the position of the other two

130 TABLE 8.11 PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE BY INDUSTRY, RACE AND SEX, 1957

Industry 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.

Agriculture Fishing Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Building and Construction Electricity, gas, water and sanitary services Commerce Transport Storage and communication Government and community services Business and recreational services Personal services Police and armed services

All Races

Chinese

T

M

F

5.9 1.0 0.3 15.8 5.2

4.7 1.2 0.3 15.0 5.9

1.2 25.9 9.9 0.8

Malays

Indians

M

F

M

F

M

F

11.6 0.1 0.2 19.4 2.1

6.3 1.3 0.5 18.4 6.2

12.4 0.1 0.2 21.1 2.3

1.5 2.7 0.1 7.6 3.4

7.8 0.3 0.0 3.7 0.3

1.4 0.2 7.7 7.4

2.8 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.2

1.4 28.4 11.9 0.9

0.1 14.4 0.9 0.4

0.5 31.9 12.1 0.4

0.1 14.6 0.8 0.2

2.5 12.1 12.2 2.4

0.1 8.4 0.3 0.1

4.4 27.6 10.7 1.1

0.6 8.8 1.3 1.0

7.8

6.8

12.8

4.7

10.6

10.6

15.1

10.0

46.2

4.4 12.7 8.9

4.7 8.3 10.5

3.1 32.9 1.9

5.2 8.4 4.2

3.0 33.3 1.4

3.9 9.3 31.7

4.4 56.8 2.6

3.1 8.0 18.8

3.3 15.0 17.4

—

races cannot be said to follow these patterns. What is different for these two races is that the proportion engaged in manufacturing was larger for men than for women, while the reverse is true in the case of business and recreational services. In addition to the above comparison which deals with the variations in the patterns of industrial distribution between the sexes of each population, it might be fruitful to study the underlying race differences among members of the same sex. Looking first at the figures for the males of the three races, we see that the two greatest concentrations are in commerce—31.9 per cent — a n d manufacturing—18.4 per cent—for the Chinese men, in police and armed services—31.7 per cent—and transport—-12.2 per cent—for the Malay men, and in c o m m e r c e — 2 7 . 6 per cent—and police and armed services—18.8 per cent—for the Indian men. For every race these two major industrial groups absorbed not less than 45 per cent of the total labor force. This characteristic is shared by the women who in fact seem to be crowded to a much greater degree into fewer industries. About 57 per cent of the Malay women sought their livelihood in personal services, about 4 6 per cent of the Indian women in government and recreational services, and about 33 per cent of the Chinese women in personal services. One point deserves special mention. A very high proportion of the Chinese women— 21 per cent—were engaged in the manufacturing industry as compared with

131 the corresponding figures of 4 per cent and 2 per cent for the Malay women and Indian women respectively. This, coupled with the large proportion for the Chinese men listed earlier, reflects the big role played by the Chinese community in the manufacturing and entrepot sectors of the national economy. One surprising feature of the table is the large proportion of Indian women—17.4 per cent—in the police and armed services in contrast with the 2 or 3 per cent for the women of the other two races. V. Occupational Patterns In classifying the labor force according to occupation certain local problems were encountered. The first difficulty is related to the frequent changes of occupation among some workers which might reduce the value of the information collected. In this connection, it is interesting to note that in the third decennial census of 1891, information on occupation was not asked for because the authority at that time felt "that the value of such returns is not great, owing to constant changes of occupations that occur among the Native Populations, especially among the Chinese." 13 Though the position was not so serious in the 1957 Census, there were nevertheless cases where this problem had to be faced. There is also the conceptual problem of distinguishing between the meanings of industry and occupation. In the 1947 Census Report, Del Tufo observed that the distinction between the two terms ". . . is not generally understood; and the task of training enumerators and coders to appreciate it was, therefore, one of the most difficult of those which had to be faced." 14 It seems that in the 1957 Census the problem appeared every now and then, particularly when the enumerators were less qualified and inexperienced. A more tricky problem concerns individuals with two or more occupations during the reference week. For instance, there was the Chinese who worked as a casual laborer in the morning, a trishaw rider in the afternoon, and a hawker in the evening. In the 1957 Census all persons with more than one occupation were tabulated according to their principal occupation, and separate tabulation of their secondary occupation was also made. In studying the pattern of occupational distribution we will confine ourselves to the principal occupation only. For our purpose the occupation of a person is regarded as distinct from

13 E . M . Merewether, Report on the Census of the Straits Settlements the 15th April, 1891 (Singapore: G o v e r n m e n t Printing Office, 1892), p. 4. 14 M . V. Del T u f o , Malaya: A Report on the 1947 Census of Population T h e C r o w n Agents, 1949), p. 97.

Taken

on

(London:

132 TABLE 8.12

PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE BY OCCUPATION, RACE AND SEX, 1957 Chinese

All Races Occupation 1. Professional, technical & related workers 2. Administrative, executive & managerial workers 3. Clerical workers 4. Sales workers 5. Agricultural workers, forestry workers & fishermen 6. Workers in transport & communication occupations 7. Craftsmen, production process workers, & laborers not elsewhere classified 8. Service, sport, entertainment & recreation workers 9. Members of armed forces, policemen, firemen, security officers & related workers

Malays

T

M

F

M

F

M

4.8

3.9

9.8

3.3

8.2

2.3

1.9 10.4 18.3

2.2 11.4 20.0

0.4 5.9 10.2

1.9 10.6 23.8

0.2 5.0 10.7

7.9

7.0

11.9

7.6

8.3

9.9

0.7

31.3

32.7

13.0

4.1

F

Indians M

F

11.4

3.1

29.2

0.5 12.8 3.0

0.3 2.4 7.0

1.8 11.9 20.6

0.9 10.0 6.0

12.6

10.0

8.3

2.8

9.0

9.1

0.3

19.7

0.3

5.8

1.5

25.0

34.0

27.2

24.9

4.7

37.8

12.6

8.0

35.8

9.0

35.7

4.1

65.2

8.3

30.4

5.0

0.1

0.7

0.1

22.8

0.4

8.0

0.6

his participation in the branch of economic activity which was the subject of investigation in the preceding section. But there are obviously some areas where these two classifications overlap to a limited extent, as may be observed in Tables 8.11 and 8.12. For instance, in comparing these two tables we see that the number of farmers and fishermen does correspond fairly closely with the number engaged in the agricultural and fishing industries. On the other hand, this correspondence is lacking in certain occupations which render services of a general nature. A simple example is that of clerical workers who are to be found in all branches of economic activity. The importance of the entrepot sector of the economy is again clearly reflected in the pattern of occupational distribution laid out in Table 8.12. In contrast with the 57 per cent in Malaya, less than 8 per cent of the labor force in Singapore are in the farming and fishing occupations responsible for producing the small amount of whatever food is not imported from the hinterland or overseas countries. A comparatively small group of administrators, executives and managers—2 per cent—organize and administer the work of a large body of skilled and semi-skilled craftsmen and production process workers—31 per cent. Distribution of locally manufactured and imported goods to consumers at home and abroad is accomplished by a fairly large group of sales workers—18 per cent—who also work under

133 some of the managers and proprietors. The routine tasks of clerical work involved in administration, production and distribution are in the hands of the clerical workers who amounted to about 10 per cent of the total labor force. From what has been said in the previous section on industry, it is to be expected that considerable variation in the pattern of occupational distribution exists between the sexes. About 36 per cent of the women are to be found in the service, sport, entertainment and recreational occupations as against 8 per cent for the men. To be more detailed, two-thirds within this group are domestic servants and in fact about a quarter of the total female labor force are domestic servants. Two other groups of occupations with a higher proportion for women are professional and technical workers and agricultural workers, forestry workers and fishermen. The group which has a conspicuously higher proportion for men is communication and transport workers. A comparison of the male figures for the three races reveals that the occupational pattern of the Chinese men is on the whole remarkably similar to that of the Indian men. The only differences lie in the smaller proportion of agricultural workers and fishermen for the Indian men and the tiny proportion of members of the police and armed forces for the Chinese men who by tradition are averse to these occupations. The markedly dissimilar pattern of the Malay men is clearly underlined by an extremely low proportion of sales workers—3 per cent—and a higher proportion of communication and transport workers—20 per cent—and of members in the police and armed forces—23 per cent. The female pattern of each of the three races appears strikingly different in its own way; the 29 per cent of Indian women in professional and technical occupations; the 27 per cent of Chinese women employed as craftsmen and production process workers; and the 65 per cent of Malay women engaged as service, sport, entertainment and recreational workers. Child Labor It may be recalled that 8,704 or 1.8 per cent of the labor force were children between the ages of 10 and 14 years. Those who were unemployed during the reference week amounted to 1,252 or 14.4 per cent in this age group. Though this is appreciably higher than the overall unemployment level of 5 per cent noted earlier, it is nevertheless consistent with the average position in most countries where the unemployment problem is most serious at the younger age groups. Among those who were employed, about 50 per cent were employees, 45 per cent unpaid family workers, and the remaining

134 TABLE 8.13 PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE AGED 1 0 - 1 5 BY OCCUPATION AND SEX, 1957 Number Occupation 1. Workers on small holdings & market gardens 2. Workers in domestic service, hospitals, hotels, clubs, restaurants, etc. 3. Salesmen & shop assistants 4. Hawkers, street vendors & stall holders 5. Tailors, dressmakers & related workers 6. Rubber tappers 7. Toolmakers, machinists, plumbers, welders & related workers 8. Carpenters, joiners, cabinet makers & related-workers 9. Fishermen 10. Barbers, hairdressers, beauticians & related workers 11. Other occupations Total

T

M

Percentage F

T

2,137

1,151

986

1,151 1,060 763 227 170

453 894 622 71 82

168

M

F

28.4

25.4

32.9

698 166 141 156 88

15.3 14.1 10.1 3.0 2.3

10.0 19.7 13.7 1.6 1.8

23.3 5.5 4.7 5.2 2.9

165

3

2.2

3.6

0.1

155 93

145 87

10 6

2.1 1.2

3.2 1.9

0.3 0.2

83 1,519 7,526

3 857 4,530

80 662 2,996

1.1 20.2 100.0

0.1 18.9 100.0

2.7 22.1 100.0

5 per cent mainly own account workers. Since 74 per cent of the unemployed children have worked before, it means that all in all 7,526 children may be classified by occupation. This is accomplished in Table 8.13. The general impression conveyed by the table is that the children were mainly used in unspecialized and unskilled work. The first four groups of occupations, which cover mainly this type of work, account for about 68 per cent of the total. To some extent the 2 0 per cent for the "other occupations" also cover work of a general nature. The other six groups which cover occupations requiring greater skills take in not more than 3 per cent each. The pattern varies considerably between the boys and girls as evidenced by the ranking of the eleven groups of occupations which are out of line in the male and female columns of the table. By and large the girls were heavily clustered together in the first two categories of occupations on the list, about one-third in small holdings and market gardens and one-quarter in domestic service, hospitals, hotels, clubs, restaurants, etc. The remaining 44 per cent were distributed among the other groups of occupations in such a way that not more than 6 per cent were in each group, except for the last one. On the other hand, a lesser degree of concentration is seen to exist among the boys who were mainly scattered among the first four groups of occupations. Another point worthy of note is that while a higher proportion of the boys were salesmen, shop assistants, hawkers, street vendors and stall

135 holders, the girls have a higher proportion of workers on small holdings and market gardens and in domestic service, hospitals, etc. Occupational

Status

The distribution of the labor force by occupational status is in no small measure dependent on the type of economy existing in the country. In general, predominantly agricultural economies seem to have a relatively lower proportion of employees but a higher proportion of unpaid family workers and own account workers. Thus, in Malaya slightly less than 56 per cent of the labor force are employees as compared with the corresponding figure of 74 per cent in Singapore. Furthermore, in Singapore only 5 per cent are unpaid family workers and the 17 per cent for own account workers is also on the low side. The 4 per cent for employers does not seem to have deviated from the normal level, and no special meaning should be attached to it. The influence of agriculture on the distribution of occupational status may be better appreciated in Table 8.14 where the group embracing agricultural workers, forestry workers and fishermen has by far the smallest proportion of employees—28 per cent—and the greatest proportion of unpaid family workers—30 per cent. As for own account workers, the 41 per cent also seems to be on the high side though this proportion is surpassed by that in the sales occupations with 45 per cent. But then it should be remembered that the 30 per cent for unpaid family workers stands out well above the corresponding figure in the other groups of occupations. TABLE 8.14 PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE BY OCCUPATIONAL STATUS AND OCCUPATION, 1957

Occupation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

Professional, technical and related workers Administrative, executive and managerial workers Clerical workers Sales workers Agricultural workers, forestry workers and fishermen Workers in transport and communication occupations Craftsmen, production process workers and laborers not elsewhere classified Service, sport, entertainment and recreation workers Members of armed forces, policemen, firemen, security officers and related workers

Employers

Own Account workers

Unpaid family workers

2.6 33.8 0.1 10.2

6.4 9.2 0.5 44.6

0.4 0.5 0.4 9.3

90.7 56.6 99.1 35.9

0.8

41.4

29.9

27.8

0.2

21.2

0.4

78.2

1.2

8.3

1.8

88.7

4.6

6.8

2.4

86.1

—

—

—

Employees

100.0

136 The extraordinary feature about the distribution of occupational status laid out in Table 8.14 is the completely different pattern displayed by the various groups of occupations. T o begin with, there is the extreme situation in which members of the police and armed forces were entirely employees, followed closely by the no less extreme case of clerical workers who were almost one hundred per cent employees. Looking now at those who engaged these employees, we see that there is also at least one outstanding group of occupations with an exceptionally large proportion of employers. This is the 34 per cent of employers in the administrative, executive and managerial occupations, which is way ahead of the next highest of 10 per cent recorded in the sales occupations. The unusually big proportions of unpaid family workers and own account workers in the agricultural, forestry and fishing occupations and, to some extent, in the sales occupations have been mentioned above. Finally, with regard to the four proportions for the four categories of occupational status, a variety of situations in detail exist among the nine broad groups of occupations.

9 MALE WORKING LIFE PATTERNS Of the total number of males born during a particular period a fair number will die before they attain the age of ten, and among those who survive to this age some will postpone entering the working population in order to acquire education and training. By the age of twenty the majority of the boys will enter the working population, leaving an extremely small proportion who will never enter the working population on account of physical disability, insanity, etc., originating at birth or during childhood. In the course of their working lives some will leave the working population because of death, chronic ill-health and other reasons, while the others will continue working until their retirement age is reached. These and other aspects of labor force dynamics can be properly studied with the aid of tables of working life which have been developed in recent years to serve this purpose. Abridged tables of male working life for Singapore and its three main racial components have been calculated in Appendix Two which also presents a comprehensive description of the methodology. This chapter will be confined to an analysis of the results of the calculations and the applications of these tables to study the male working life in Singapore. I. Length of Working Life Life

Expectancies

According to the abridged life table for All Races males based on the mortality experience of 1956-58, 9,305 males out of the initial cohort of 10,000 born alive can be expected to survive to their tenth birthday (see Table II.2 in Appendix Two). Out of these, the number who will join the working population at some time or other during the remainder of their lives, amounts to 9,175 or 98.6 per cent. It can also be observed in Table II.2 in Appendix Two that the 9,175 males in the working population at exact age ten can be expected to live collectively 454,646 man-years in the working population. A division of the latter figure by the former will give the average expectation of working life of 49.6 years for a boy at age ten in

138 the working population. From this maximum the working life expectancy undergoes a gradual and irregular diminution with the advance of old age, as seen in Table 9.1. Since the source of depletion from the working population is not only death but causes other than death, the working life expectancy at a given age must necessarily be lower than the ordinary life expectancy at the corresponding age. Thus a boy at age ten has a life expectancy of 54.9 years as compared with a working life expectancy of only 49.6 years in the working population, so that he can anticipate a gap of about 5.3 years between his cessation of work and his death. This relationship is clearly illustrated in Table 9.1. The retirement-life expectancy, as it is known, remains somewhat constant at about 5.5 years over the first forty-five years of his working life on account of death being the principal cause of separation from the working population below age forty-five. At the older ages where old people tend to stay in the working population until they die, the retirement-life expectancy displays a marked decrease towards the last age group. A comparison of the three types of life expectancies for Singapore and those for four other countries where information is available is given below. Expectancy at Age 15 Country

0 e X

Singapore, 1957 Malaya, 1957 Great Britain, 1955 U.S.A., 1960 New Zealand, 1951

50.2 49.4 54.9 54.2 55.9

ow e X

44.8 46.0 48.4 47.3 46.7

ow R X

5.4 3.4 6.5 6.9 8.6

The men in Singapore enjoy a fairly good retirement-life expectancy at age fifteen, comparable to that experienced in the developed countries. On the other hand, the men in Malaya seem to record a rather low retirement-life expectancy. The above working life expectancy refers to the expectation at each age for those in the working population at that age. It is also possible to consider the working life expectancy for A11 Men living at a given age, particularly at birth, irrespective of whether they are working or not. Reference to Table II.2 will show that the survivors of 10,000 males born alive can expect to spend 454,646 man-years in the working population thus giving an average working life expectancy at birth of 45.5 years. This is about 4.1 years less than the working life expectancy at age ten because of the sub-

139 TABLE 9 . 1

MALE LIFE EXPECTANCIES AT SELECTED AGES, 1957

Age

0

ow

ow

e

e

R

X

X

X

10 15

54.9 50.2

49.6 44.8

20

45.5

40.0

25 30

40.8 36.2

35.3

5.5

30.6

5.6

35

31.6 27.2

26.0

5.6

40

21.6

5.6

45 50

23.0 19.1

5.7

55

15.4

17.3 13.5 10.2

60

12.4

7.9

4.5

65 70

9.7 7.7

6.3

3.4

5.2

75

6.0

4.7

2.5 1.3

80

4.6 3.5

4.1 3.1

85

5.3 5.4 5.5

5.6 5.2

0.5 0.4

stantial number of deaths that occur among the boys before they reach their tenth birthday. The above figure of 454,646 man-years has been reckoned by including those persons who were in training for employment. An alternative estimate of the total number of man-years that will be spent in the working population, excluding time spent in training after age ten, by the 10,000 born alive has been calculated and the results are presented at the bottom of Table II.2. These figures indicate that the total number of man-years of working life remaining at exact age ten amounts to 391,077, and hence the working life expectancy at birth is 39.1 years. The difference between the two figures—454,646 and 391,077—may be taken to represent the loss of man-years due to education or training in employment after age ten. Separation

Pattern

It was stated that the working population is continuously subjected to losses on account of death and other causes. This pattern of separation can be analysed more precisely in terms of the central death rates and the central retirement—other causes—rates laid out in Table 9.2. With regard to the total loss rate, it stays at a fairly low level below 8 per thousand working population below the mid-forties, though increasing steadily. Thereafter the increase gathers momentum until the last age group of 85 and over where

140 TABLE 9 . 2

LOSS RATES FROM WORKING POPULATION BY AGE, 1957

Age

1,000 ms 5

x

1,000 5

mi x

1,000 m' 5

10-14

1.05

1.05

15-19 20-24

1.21

1.21

—

1.55

1.55

—

25-29

1.85

1.85

—

30-34

2.55

2.55

35-39

4.62

3.97

x

—

0.64

40-44

7.96

6.06

1.90

45-49

15.29

10.24

5.05

50-54

28.83

55-59

59.66

16.08 27.79

31.86

12.76

60-64

93.74 137.36

42.23 68.99

51.52

65-69 70-74

179.77

95.76

75-79

201.38

80-84

225.75

135.38 189.09

84.05 65.89

8 5 & Over

319.02

284.10

68.33

36.79 36.81

the rate approaches 319 per thousand; this means that at these old ages about one-third withdraw from the working population during the year. As for the death rate, one can observe a gradual rise over the age range up to the late forties and thereafter an increasingly faster rise up to the peak level in the last age group. On the other hand, the retirement rate remains extremely low up to the mid-forties, after which it rises sharply until the early seventies and then falls equally sharply. This contrasting pattern of death and retirement leads to marked differences in their relative importance as factors determining separation from the working population at the different ages. The absence of any figures in the retirement column for ages 10-34 is the result of adopting the constant proportion of working population for these ages (see Appendix Two). In any case, the actual retirement rate at these young ages could not but be insignificant. From the mid-forties onwards, the retirement rate begins to exert an increasingly important influence relative to death rate until the late fifties when it is higher than the death rate. The retirement rate continues to be heavier than the death rate in the next age group 60-64, and then stays equally important in the late sixties. At the older ages the relative importance of the retirement rate seems to diminish quickly. The position in Singapore differs from that in Malaya where the lesser importance of retirement as a factor in the withdrawal of men from the

141 working population is maintained throughout the whole age range, with the narrowest gap of about one-third below the death rate recorded in the early sixties.1 This is also in contrast with the position in Great Britain and New Zealand where the retirement rate is more important than mortality from age 65 onwards in the former country 2 and from age 50 onwards in the latter. 3 Apart from the lower mortality rates, the higher levels of living and the well-established national insurance and old age pension schemes are the two deciding factors in these two countries. II. Productive and Dependent Man-Years The ordinary life table and the working life table may be jointly utilized to study the total years of life per generation in terms of the number of manyears spent as productive workers and as dependents. In any population there always exists a small group of persons who, because of wealth, permanent illness, insanity or physical defect, will never enter the working population though they reach such an age that everyone who will ever join has done so. An estimate of the proportion of such persons may be deduced from the actual proportion of men in the working population. Since the actual proportion working has been found to attain the maximum of 98.59 per cent (see Table II. 1), the remaining 1.41 per cent may be taken to represent those who never enter the working population or who would not enter if they survived although they died too young for the possibility to be demonstrated. The total number of man-years lived by these men may be reckoned by multiplying the total generation life Ta by the ratio (1— Mw) where Mw denotes the maximum ratio for working population. Thus, (1—Mw)7*0 = (1 - 0.9859) X 605,278 = 8,534 This calculation presupposes that the death rates of those who never enter the working population are the same as of those who do. The assumption is evidently false in so far as it refers to those who fail to enter because of permanent illness, but the numbers of these may be so small relatively as to introduce no numerically serious error. 1

Saw Swee-Hock, "Malaya: Tables of Male Working Life, 1957," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General), Vol. 128, Part 3, 1965, pp. 4 2 1 - 4 3 8 . 2 Great Britain, The Length of Working Life of Males in Great Britain, Studies in Official Statistics N o . 4 (London: H.M.S.O., 1959), pp. 16-17. 3 New Zealand, Tables of Working Life 1951, Special Supplement to February 1957 issue of Monthly Abstract of Statistics (Wellington: Government Printer, 1957), pp. 3 0 - 3 1 .

142 The other portion, Mw.Tm may be divided into two main categories; the total man-years spent in productive work and the total man-years spent in non-productive work or in dependence. The former may be equated to based on the actual proportion working; Table II.2 shows that it amounts to 391,077 man-years. The total man-years spent in dependence may be in turn divided into the following smaller components:— 1. Assuming that 5 is the normal age of commencing schooling, the number of man-years lived before schooling is equal to M*(T0 - T5) = 0.9859 (605,278 - 557,961) = 46,650 2. ( a ) From the previous assumption, it follows that the number of man-years spent in education under age 10 is equal to MW(T5 - T10) = 0.9859 (557,961 - 511,286) = 46,017 ( b ) The number of man-years spent in education at age 10 and above may be taken as j w - J » 1 = 454,646 - 391,077 = 63,569 The sum of the two results will give the total number of man-years spent in education at age 5 and above. 3. The total number of man-years spent in retirement or outside the working population aged 10 and over is equal to M W .T 1 0 — , which can be split into two components on the assumption that 65 represents the normal age of retirement. ( a ) Thus the number of man-years spent outside the working population under age 65, i.e. after prematurely leaving the working population before reaching 65, may be reckoned as Af w (T 1 0 - T k J T * - ( T - 6W5) = 0.9859 (511,286 - 50,815) - (454,646 - 19,111) = 18,443 ( b ) And the number of man-years spent outside the working population after the age of 65—whether leaving it earlier or after 65—is calculated as M w . r 6 5 - T6W5 = (0.9859 X 50,815) - 19,111 = 30,988 The above analysis, summarized in Table 9.3, serves to underline the extent and nature of the dependency burden to be borne by the working population. Thus, out of the total of 605,278 years of life per generation, about 391,077 man-years or 65 per cent are being spent in productive work

143 TABLE 9.3 ELEMENTS OF TOTAL MALE GENERATION LIFE Man-Years Number

Elements Total Years of Life Spent: Spent in productive work; Spent in dependence; 1. Pre-education under 5 2. Education (a) ages 5 - 9 (b) ages 10 & over Total 3. Retirement (a) ages 1 0 - 6 4 (b) ages 6 5 & over Total 4. Never-entered work

Percentage 605,278 391,077 214,201

100.0 64.6 35.4

46,650 46,017 63,569

100.0 21.8

(21.5) (29.6) 109,586

18,443 30,988

51.1 ( 8.6) (14.5)

49,431 8,534

23.1 4.0

and simultaneously providing for the other 35 per cent spent in dependence. A s for the breakdown of the total of 214,201 man-years spent in dependence, the pre-education component takes up about 22 per cent, the education component about 51 per cent, the retirement component about 23 per cent, and the never-entered work component about 4 per cent. Whilst the economic significance underlying the above analysis seems to be apparent, it must be stressed that the study is based on a stationary population of one particular generation which is not identical with an actual situation where the current working population provides for the pre-education and education years of a different generation. The balancing years of life do not therefore reflect the actual relationships in Singapore at the moment since it is experiencing an increasing population, but will be far more tenable when the population increase is at last checked and if the proportion working and the mortality rates have remained constant.

III. Estimated Losses from Male Working Population A more practical use of the working life tables is that of estimating the annual losses from the actual working population on the assumption that this population is subjected to the age-specific death rates and retirement rates of the constructed table. T h e estimate can be derived from a multiplication of the rates for 3 m" x , 3 m" x and 3 m r x for the various quinary age groups by the actual number of men in the working population in the corresponding age groups. Calculations based on the actual working population enumerated in the 1957 Census have been performed and the detailed results are set out in

144 T A B L E 9.4 M A L E W 0 R K I N 6 P O P U L A T I O N A N D ITS E S T I M A T E D L O S S E S B Y A G E G R O U P ,

1957

Estimated Losses Age Group

Working Population

Total Losses

Due to Death

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 & over

5,303 41,649 56,531 58,565 49,440 45,814 42,198 36,608 27,351 17,496 8,043 3,364 1,060 271 76 28

6 50 88 108 126 212 336 560 789 1,044 754 462 190 55 17 9

6 50 88 108 126 182 259 375 440 486 340 232 102 37 14 8

Due to Retirement

— — — —

30 77 185 349 558 416 228 88 18 3 1

Table 9.4 where the working population above age 74 refers to the extrapolated figures. The method of extrapolation is described in Appendix Two. The 1957 losses from the working population seem to exhibit a simple pattern over the age range. The total losses increase steadily from 6 in the first age group to the peak level of 1,044 in the late fifties and then fall quite steeply to 9 in the last age group. A somewhat similar pattern is displayed by the losses due to death, but the position for the losses due to retirement is slightly different though the maximum loss occurs in the same age group 5 5 - 5 9 . In general the increase from the thirties to the maximum is more rapid than the fall from the maximum to the older age groups. Moreover, the second largest loss due to retirement is recorded in the 6 0 - 6 4 age group whereas the second largest loss due to death is recorded in the 5 0 - 5 4 age group. The summary of the calculations which is shown in Table 9.5 reveals that out of the 393,807 men in the working population in 1957, the total number of men estimated to have left the working population during the year amounted to 4,806, of whom 2,853 left on account of death and 1,953 on account of causes other than death. The economic significance of this is that 4,806 unemployed persons would be able to find jobs as a result of the equivalent number of persons who vacated their jobs. The remaining

145 TABLE 9.5

SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED LOSSES FROM MALE WORKING POPULATION FOR SINGAPORE, MALAYA AND GREAT BRITAIN Estimated L o s s e s

Country

Working

Total

Population

Losses

Due to Death

Due to Retirement

Singapore 1 9 5 7 Number Rate per 1,000

393,807 —

4,806

2,853

1,953

12.2

7.2

5.0

23,052

17,098

5,954

14.1

10.4

3.6

291,780

137,390

157,390

18.1

8.4

9.4

Malaya 1957 Number Rate per 1,000

1,634,640 —

Great Britain 1 9 5 5 Number Rate per 1,000

16,084,000 —

number of the unemployed would have to seek jobs specifically created for them during the year. The total loss rate for 1957 came to 12.2 per thousand working population, while the loss rate from death was 7.2 per thousand and the loss rate from retirement was 5.0 per thousand. The three respective rates for Malaya in 1957 were 14.1, 10.4 and 3.6 per thousand. 4 Unlike Singapore where the retirement rate is one-third below the level of the death rate, Malaya has a retirement rate which is about two-thirds below the death rate. One can attribute the relatively lesser influence of the retirement rate in the latter country to the larger proportion of unpaid family workers and own-account workers, particularly in the agricultural and fishing occupations which absorbed about 55 per cent of the working population in 1957. 5 The position is strikingly different in Great Britain where the retirement rate is a shade higher than the death rate, possibly due to the higher levels of living and the old age national insurance plan. The significance of the latter factor in Great Britain is underlined by the fact that out of the total number of 157,390 leaving on account of retirement, no less than 86,250 or 55 per cent retired in the age group 65—69. The retiring age is fixed at 65 under the plan. 6 The figures for Singapore and Malaya tell another story. In 4 Saw Swee-Hock, "A Method of Estimating Losses from the Working Population," Kajian Ekonomi Malaysia, Vol. II, No. 1, June 1965, p. 51. 5 Saw Swee-Hock, "The Structure of the Labour Force in Malaya," International Labour Review, Vol. 98, N o . 1, July 1968, pp. 55-72. 6 Great Britain, The Length of Working Life of Males in Great Britain, op. cit. p. 14.

146 both countries the maximum number of retirements occurred in the 5 5 - 5 9 age group, and the actual proportion expressed in terms of the total retirement amounted to 28 per cent in Singapore and 21 per cent in Malaya. There is a fixed retirement age of 55 in government services, but a small number do continue working on a temporary basis after this age and a larger number probably seek alternative employment in commerce and industry or work as own account workers. IV. Race Comparison of Male Working Life In Table 9.6 are set out some of the differences and similarities in the male working life and retirement life expectancies of the three main races. Ignoring the figures for the retirement life expectancies for the time being, it may be seen that a slightly higher expectation of working life is recorded for the Malay men, as compared to the Chinese men, throughout the whole age range. But still higher working life expectancy is recorded for the Indian men, except in the last two age groups. The important point is that a different pattern is displayed by these races in respect to the retirement-life expectancy as measured by the difference between the ordinary life expectancy and the working life expectancy. At every age the retirement-life expectancy of the Chinese men appears to be a bit lower than that of the TABLE 9.6 MALE WORKING LIFE AND RETIREMENT LIFE EXPECTANCIES BY RACE AND AGE, 1 9 5 7 eow

Row

X

X

Age

Chinese

Malays

Indians

Chinese

Malays

Indians

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

49.3 44.6 39.4 35.1 30.4 25.8 21.3 17.1 13.2 10.0 7.6 6.0 4.9 4.4 3.6 2.6

49.8 45.1 40.0 35.7 31.0 26.3 21.7 17.6 14.0 11.0 8.8 7.1 5.8 5.1 4.2 3.2

52.2 47.4 42.6 37.8 33.0 28.3 23.9 19.5 15.6 12.1 9.7 7.9 6.5 5.3 4.2 3.1

5.4 5.3 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.2 4.5 3.5 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.6

5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.4 4.5 3.6 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.4

4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.3 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.7

147 Malay men, but even lower retirement-life expectancy is found for the Indian men. However, one common feature of the races is that in the first forty-five years of life the retirement-life expectancy is seen to remain stationary though a very gentle rise at the beginning is perceptible, and after the mid-fifties it falls progressively towards the end of the age range. In evaluating the loss rates presented in Table 9.7 the principal emphasis will be on the race differentials in the age-specific retirement rates as well as on the relative importance of these rates and the death rates as factors determining the losses from the working population at the various ages. In view of the assumption which states that the mortality of the overall population is the same as that of the working population, 7 any race differences in the death rates of the working life table would in fact be merely a reflection of the race differential mortality examined in Chapter Seven. As for the retirement rates, it is quite clear that the Indian men experience rates that are substantially lower than those of the Chinese men or even the Malay men, except at age 80 and over. The most plausible reasons are that firstly, a larger proportion of Indian men do not continue working in alternative jobs after forced retirement from commercial and government services, and secondly, some Indian men emigrate back to India on retirement. T h e rates for Chinese men are higher than the Malay men from about the midfifties, with the widest gap prevailing in the late sixties. Coming next to the relative importance of mortality and retirement as factors determining losses, it would appear that retirement does exercise a relatively stronger influence in the working population of the Chinese males. In the three age groups between 55 and 69 retirement rates for Chinese men are greater than the death rates, but this advantage is seen to exist in only one age group among the Indian men and in two age groups among the Malay men. Moreover, the Chinese men commence to record retirement rate one quinary age group earlier than the men of the other two races. An analysis of the division of total life per generation for each of the three main races is presented in Table 9.8; the method of computing the figures for the various components is the same as that outlined earlier in respect to the total All Races Males. Some similarities as well as some marked differences between the three races are noticeable. Considering first the broad division between productive and non-productive work, the Chinese men and the Malay men spend about two-thirds of their total generation life in productive work and the remaining one-third in dependence. The contrast registered by the Indian men stands out clearly, the two corresponding 7

See p. 198 in Appendix Two.

II

o

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v

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f i n i f ì o ^ N n M r i ( M c t ) i r ) r N « - < < D < û eg

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c v i i ^ o œ î 2 f s i ® < ^ ç o p o o o c g u ì r s ^ o o o ^ C N i / i ^ q r « . o « — « ^ c ó c s j ^ u S c s ì o ^ o o o ò

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u

O î C N j ^ o o r ^ r ^ o q c M O O c g ^ r ^ . i O r N . o o c v j . - » c s i ^ C T ^ - o ^ i — i m o ) i «—• e g c g c o

a?

>

« - " p H C V J c M C O C O ^ ^ ^ m t O l O r N N O O O O

149 TABLE 9.8 ELEMENTS OF TOTAL MALE GENERATION LIFE BY RACE Man-Years (Percentage) Elements Total Years of Life Spent: Spent in Productive work: Spent in Dependence: 1. Pre-education under 5 2. Education (a) ages 5 - 9 (b) ages 10 & Over Total 3. Retirement (a) ages 1 0 - 6 4 (b) ages 65 & Over Total 4. Never-entered work

Chinese 100.0 64.3 35.7

100.0 21.8

(21.3) (29.4)

Malays 100.0 65.1 34.9

Indians

100.0 22.2

50.7

40.3

50.0 ( 9.4) (15.8)

22.6 5.0

100.0 29.9

(29.5) (10.8)

(21.7) (28.4)

( 8.5) (14.2)

100.0 74.8 25.2

( 7.5) (19.8) 25.2 2.5

27.3 2.5

proportions approaching three-fourths and one-fourth respectively. The relatively high proportion spent in productive work is associated with the exceptionally higher crude economic activity rate of the Indian men noted in the preceding chapter. Differentials of some interest also exist in the detailed breakdown of the dependency man-years. Though the patterns of the Chinese men and the Malay men resembled each other in general, the former apparently spent a smaller proportion of their dependency man-years in retirement in both the groups 1 0 - 6 4 and 65 and over, and a larger proportion in the never-entered work component. In almost every aspect the pattern of the Indian men is quite different. They spent a relatively bigger proportion of their dependency man-years in pre-education under age 5 and a smaller proportion in education at age 5 and over. Furthermore, the proportions of the two sub-groups of the latter component differ from those of the Chinese men and Malay men in the sense that a larger proportion is spent in education at ages 5 - 9 and a lower proportion in education at ages 10 & over. T h e key explanation to the unique position of the Indian men is that their population has been swelled by men of working ages who originally immigrated from India and whose sole aim in Singapore is to work.

10 FAMILY PLANNING A N D POPULATION CONTROL Birth control as a means of spacing child-births and limiting family size has long been practiced by persons in Singapore on an individual basis, with sometimes the advice of friends and doctors and the use of literature on family plannnig. The idea of providing family planning services to the general public on a large and organized scale was first conceived after the end of the Second World War. Immediately after the war there were serious food shortages and the government was faced with the problem of feeding a large number of undernourished persons, especially children roaming the streets. The Social Welfare Department set up numerous centres to feed the hungry children. It soon became apparent to the group of voluntary workers assisting in this scheme that feeding the children did not quite solve the problem, and a better and more permanent solution was to assist the parents to plan the size of their families according to their means. This led to the formation of a family planning association in 1949, and finally to the introduction of a population policy and program by the government in 1966. I. Work of Family Planning Association

In early 1949 the Social Welfare Department, the Lady Medical Officer of the Singapore Municipality, and the wife of a missionary met in the Y.M.C.A. to look into the possibility of organizing family planning work. The outcome of their deliberation was that such services should be made available to mothers attending government Infant Welfare Centres. This was followed by a debate in the Municipal Council Chamber as to whether Maternal and Child Welfare services should include advice on family planning. The climax was reached in July 1949 when a small group of social workers and doctors formed the Family Planning Association of Singapore. In the early days the primary objective of the Association was to improve the welfare of the family and the health of the mothers by assisting them to avoid unplanned child-births. This was made clear by the

151 aims o f the A s s o c i a t i o n as stated in its constitution. 1 It was not so m u c h the wider issue o f a c h r o n i c u n e m p l o y m e n t p r o b l e m and the threat to national efforts in raising the levels o f living that were f o r e m o s t in the minds of the founders. Clinics A l t h o u g h the a s s o c i a t i o n was established in J u l y 1 9 4 9 , it was not until N o v e m b e r that the first 3 clinics c a m e into o p e r a t i o n , and they f u n c t i o n e d after office h o u r s in private dispensaries kindly put at the disposal of the association b y three of its own m e m b e r s . T h e second batch of 3 clinics was soon o p e n e d b u t this time at Municipal H e a l t h C e n t r e s through the influe n c e of its m e m b e r s w o r k i n g in the municipality. B y the end o f the year the a s s o c i a t i o n h a d s u c c e s s f u l l y negotiated with the government f o r family planning w o r k in the N o r t h - C a n a l O u t - P a t i e n t Dispensary. D u r i n g the first six m o n t h s the a s s o c i a t i o n , b e i n g a small voluntary body, had to o v e r c o m e some

major

finance.

obstacles

connected

with

accommodation,

personnel

and

W h a t was reassuring to its m e m b e r s was that the services provided

in the clinics o p e n e d so f a r were fairly well received by the patients. In early 1 9 5 0 it was felt that the d e m a n d f o r family planning services was great e n o u g h to justify the setting up o f m o r e clinics, and thus 2 new clinics were o p e n e d at M u n i c i p a l H e a l t h C e n t r e s . In J u n e a n o t h e r 2 were established at g o v e r n m e n t I n f a n t W e l f a r e C e n t r e s at N e e S o o n and B u k i t P a n j a n g in the rural districts. B y the end of 1 9 5 0 the association was providing f a m i l y planning services in a total of 11 clinics, 9 situated in the municipal a r e a and 2 in the rural area. T h e n u m b e r of clinics functioning at the end o f e a c h y e a r is shown in T a b l e 1 0 . 1 . T h e

fluctuating

characteris-

tic of the figures is due to the fact that they are f o r the e n d - y e a r point of time, and in any y e a r s o m e clinics would c e a s e operating, s o m e

former

clinics might b e r e - o p e n e d , a n d new ones might b e f o r m e d . H o w e v e r , it is evident that o v e r the p e r i o d of eighteen years the n u m b e r of clinics has generally i n c r e a s e d , a n d at the eve of the government takeover in J a n u a r y 1 9 6 6 the a s s o c i a t i o n was m a n a g i n g all in all 3 4 clinics widely dispersed over the c o u n t r y . A t the beginning the a s s o c i a t i o n depended entirely on voluntary personnel, m a i n l y social w o r k e r s , doctors, nurses a n d interpreters, t o p e r f o r m the daily administrative w o r k and to m a n the clinics. A s the n u m b e r of clinics a n d patients b e c a m e t o o large to handle, e m p l o y e e s paid o n a part-

1 See for instance, Fifth Annual Report of Family Planning Association pore, 1954 (Singapore: Malaya Publishing House Ltd., n.d.).

of

Singa-

152 time basis were engaged in 1952, and this was soon followed by the recruitment of full-time employees. Another problem confronting the association was finance which determined the size and scope of the services that could be provided. In the first twelve months the association existed on a very slim budget of approximately $7,400, derived from a government grant, members' subscriptions, donations and clinic receipts. The sum contributed by the government amounted to no less than $5,000, which was donated as a gesture of official blessing on what the association was attempting to do for the people. However, apart from this grant the government took no active part in the administration and policy decisions of the association. Over the years the government increased its grant, and since 1959 it has contributed $100,000 which has been the principal source of income for the association. Other sources of a smaller and less regular kind were the Asia Foundation, the Ford Foundation and the International Planned Parenthood Federation. The bulk of the income was spent on employees' salaries, which in 1965 accounted for about 88 per cent of the total expenditure of $168,000. Patients and A ttendances The growth of the family planning program can best be examined in terms of the annual number of women seeking birth control services. It is necessary to classify the women into new patients and old patients; the latter refers to women who attended the clinics on a second and subsequent occasions. In the first two months of November-December 1949 the 7 clinics were visited by about 600 new patients, while in the first full year of the association's existence in 1950 a total of 1,871 new patients were registered. The annual figure rose rapidly over the years, reaching about 5,900 ten years later in 1959 and finally 9,800 in 1965. The sharp drop to 2,100 new patients in 1966 was due to the government takeover in January 1966. For the whole period from November 1949 to December 1966 a total of about 86,000 women attended the clinics, as can be seen in Table 10.1. A fairly substantial proportion of the new patients continue to attend the clinics after their first visit. Figures for these old patients are available for 1959 onwards (see Table 10.1), and they show that in every year the number of old patients exceeded the number of new patients. In 1959 there were about 5,900 new patients as compared with 9,200 old patients; since then the proportion has remained at a fairly constant ratio of one new patient to about 1.6 old patients. The total number of attendances made by both the new and old patients in any particular year gives a good idea of the work-load that the

153 TABLE 10.1

ANNUAL NUMBER OF CLINICS, PATIENTS AND ATTENDANCES, 1 9 4 9 - 1 9 6 6

Total Attendances

Patients Year

Clinics New

1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

7 11 12 8 9 12 14 25 29 25 27 28 30 28 31 30 34 3

600 1,871 1,880 1,787 2,302 2,966 2,850 3,772 3,820 5,280 5,938 7,472 8,070 7,189 8,429 9,339 9,845 2,145

Clinic

Total

Old *

*

•

*

*

*

*

* *

*

*

*

* *

* *

9,235 10,135 11,473 13,083 15,006 16,243 17,109 4,214

Average Attendances per

* *

15,173 17,607 19,543 20,272 23,435 25,582 27,054 6,359

*

•

*

*

*

3,841 5,548 9,223 10,072 14,393 18,443 27,522 34,445 37,757 43,724 48,916 60,194 78,368 103.986 26,403

Patient

* * * *

» * * *

1,276 1,348 1,457 1,747 1,942 2,612 3,058 8,801

2.3 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.2

'not available

association had to cope with. Table 10.1 shows that the number of attendances in any year increased very much faster than the total number of clinics or patients. In 1952 about 3,800 attendances were recorded, in 1959 about 34,400 and in 1965 the figure reached the peak of 104,000. Dividing the number of attendances by the total number of clinics gives us the average number of attendances that each clinic had to handle. In 1959 the average was 1,276 attendances, increasing gradually until 1965 when the figure stood at 3,058. After the government takeover the average was 8,801 in 1966, which can be due to patients shifting from the other clinics to the remaining three owned and run by the association. It is evident that the work of the association as a whole has expanded rapidly over the years, and all the time the clinics had to cater to an increasing level of activity. To some extent this is caused by the patients making more frequent visits as reflected by the figures showing the average number of visits made by each woman. In 1959 the average was 2.3 visits per woman, increasing gradually until 1966 when the figure was 4.2. The rise in recent years was partly due to the revisits of patients to obtain their regular supply of cheap oral pills. It is possible to ascertain in which year the old patients first visited the

154 TABLE

10.2

DISTRIBUTION OF OLD PATIENTS ATTENDING IN 1963 BY YEAR OF FIRST APPEARANCE Year of Registration

New Patients

1963 Old Patients

Percentage

1949

600

1

0.16

1950

1,871

41

2.19

1951

1,880

88

4.68

1952

1,787

138

7.72

1953

2,302

190

8.25

1954

2,966

306

10.32

1955

2,850

412

14.45

1956

3,772

654

17.34

1957

3,820

752

19.68

1958

5,280

1,215

23.01

1959

5,938

1,612

17.15

1960

7,472

2,270

30.38

1961

8,070

3,264

40.44

1962

7,189

4,063

56.52

Total

55,797

15,006

26.89

clinics by examining the statistics of old patients tabulated by the year in which they had paid their first visit. The 1963 figures presented in Table 10.2 show that the old patients dated from all the past years as far back as 1949. Out of the total of 15,006 old patients registered in 1963, 4,063 paid their first call in the previous year when 7,189 new patients were registered. Therefore about 56 per cent of the new patients served in the previous year appeared again in 1963. Similarly, the Table shows that 40 per cent of the new patients contacted in 1961 appeared again in 1963. As was to be expected, this percentage decreased consistently towards the past years. Some women would have passed the reproductive age by 1963, some would be able to practice birth control on their own without any further visits, and others would have become pregnant and hence did not appear again. Characteristics

of New

Patients

Among the 3,820 new patients contacted in 1957, 84.8 per cent were Chinese, 5.5 per cent Malays, 5.6 per cent Indians and 4.1 per cent other races. Since then the racial composition has moved towards a more normal one in line with the racial composition of the general population. In 1965 the Chinese patients accounted for 75.0 per cent of the total number, the Malay patients 12.2 per cent, the Indian patients 4.6 per cent and the other races 8.2 per cent. Statistics on the age at marriage are available for a few years only, from 1954 to 1959. In these years the average age at marriage

155 of the new patients was about 18.5 years, somewhat lower than that of the women in the general population. Data on the income of the new patients are again available for the years 1954 to 1959 only; during this period the figures indicate a definite swing towards the lower income group. In 1 9 5 4 patients with family income less than $ 1 0 0 per month amounted to 2 7 per cent, and those between $ 1 0 0 and $ 2 0 0 accounted for 45 per cent. T h e two corresponding figures rose to 32 per cent and 52 per cent by 1959. In terms of the average family income of the new patients, the average fell from $ 1 9 5 in 1954 to $ 1 4 6 in 1959. Assuming the statistics can be trusted, this trend suggests that the free or highly subsidized contraceptives offered by the association tended to attract more and more patients in the lower income group. T h e family income of the new patients was very low as compared with that of the general population, which is to be expected since persons in the high income group would have the means and the knowledge to practice birth control on their own. However, there is a possibility that the patients had intentionally understated their family income in order to benefit from the free services offered by the clinics. Figures on the source of information through which the new patients became aware of the services provided in the association's clinics show that about 67 per cent were influenced by the association's workers, publicity work and former patients. The remaining 33 per cent were referred by government and private doctors. As attitudes towards family planning changed, birth control knowledge spread and new contraceptive methods came into wider use, the pattern of the sources of referral underwent a radical change (see Table 1 0 . 3 ) . In 1965 the source attributable to the association's own effort was lowered to 41 per cent, the reduction occurring mainly among the association's workers. B y now the doctors were the TABLE 10.3 PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF NEW PATIENTS BY SOURCE OF REFERRAL, 1 9 5 9 - 1 9 6 5 Medical Staff Year 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965

F.P.A.

Govt.

Private

Workers

Publicity

Patients

27.7 37.4 39.2 31.6 31.8 51.5 54.6

3.4 4.3 4.4 5.0 4.2 2.5 3.2

41.3 35.0 33.2 39.6 34.1 18.0 11.9

5.0 3.4 3.5 2.5 5.6 4.9 4.9

20.5 18.4 18.9 20.6 22.9 22.1 24.4

Others

Total

2.0 1.4 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

156 TABLE 10.4 PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF NEW PATIENTS BY METHOD CHOSEN. 1 9 5 9 - 1 9 6 0 Method

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

Diaphragm Condom Foam Tablet Applicator/Paste Genexol Oral Pill I.U.O. Others

59.4 21.3 16.1 3.2 0.2

35.8 32.7 25.9 5.1 0.4

24.7 41.4 24.6 4.6 4.0 0.7

21.6 45.4 21.4 5.1 3.5 3.0

15.2 47.5 13.6 3.7 12.8 6.7

7.2 46.1 9.1 2.7 14.6 20.2

Total

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.5

0.0

3.2 36.1 5.9 1.5 9.4 33.0 10.9 0.1

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

principal source of referral, accounting for about 5 4 per cent of the new patients in 1965. Since the government did not operate any family planning clinics, the government doctors, on receiving inquiries about birth control from their patients, usually referred them to the association's clinics. In examining the information on the methods selected by the new patients on their first visit shown in Table 10.4, we should bear in mind that some of them might switch to other methods at a later stage. In 1 9 5 9 nearly 6 0 per cent of the new patients went for diaphragms and 21 per cent for condoms; the rest chose foam tablets. Diaphragms declined in popularity very markedly as new and better methods like the oral pill and intra-uterine device—I.U.D.—were introduced. Thus only 3 per cent of the new patients preferred diaphragms in 1965. When the oral pill was made available in 1961, hardly 1 per cent of the women took to this method, and it did not become popular until 1 9 6 4 when 2 0 per cent of the women decided to take it. In the following year the proportion shot up to 33 per cent. Intra-uterine device was first given to the patients in 1965 and at once it attracted about 11 per cent of the new patients.

II. Government Population Policy and Program With extremely limited resources in the face of very rapid expansion of its activities, the association began to feel as early as 1958 that the time had come for the government to assume the responsibility of providing family planning services for the people. T h e association requested the government to take over its clinics but at that time the government under the Singapore People's Alliance was not prepared to do this. However, during the election campaigns in early 1 9 5 9 the People's Action Party came out clearly in

157 favor of government taking a more positive step in the provision of family planning services. After the Party was elected to power in May 1959, the government increased its material and moral support for the association. At the end of 1960 the Health Ministry conducted a three-month family planning campaign as part of its main health education program. The highlight of the campaign was the family planning exhibition which was attended by about 100,000 persons. In September 1963 the government presented a valuable piece of land-—over one acre—at a nominal fee of $ 1 / - per annum to the association to build its present headquarters. But the government still resisted the association's call to take over its clinics. It was in the second half of 1965 that the government finally succumbed and formed a review committee to study the possibility of the transfer of the association clinics to the Health Ministry. The outcome was the White Paper on Family Planning2 released in September 1965, which recommended a five-year family planning program and the setting up of an official organization to implement this program. On January 2, 1966 the Family Planning and Population Board was established, thus ushering in a new phase in the history of family planning in Singapore. The functions of the board are as follows: ( a ) to act as the sole agency for the promotion and dissemination o f i n f o r m a t i o n pertaining to f a m i l y planning in Singapore;

( b ) to initiate and undertake population control programs; ( c ) to stimulate interest in demography in Singapore; and ( d ) to advise the Government o n all matters relating to family planning and population control . . . 3

According to its five-year plan, the number of married women whom the board hoped to serve in the first year 1966 was 25,000. This target number was fixed at 30,000 for 1967, 35,000 for 1968, 45,000 for 1969 but remain at 45,000 level in the final year 1970. The total for the five years will come to 180,000 which is the estimated number of married women who would be eligible for family planning during the period. The aim of the plan is two-fold: to liberate women from the burden of bearing and raising an unnecessarily large number of children and to increase human happiness

2 White Paper on Family Planning, Cmd. 22 of 1965 (Singapore; Government Printer, 1965). 3 Acts Supplement, Republic of Singapore, No. 9, January 7, 1966, (Singapore: Government Printer, 1966).

158 for all. The second objective is the improvement of the general welfare of the people by raising the levels of living through the diversion of more public funds into productive economic development and thus to increase more job opportunities. All the 31 association clinics located in the Government Maternal and Child Health Centres were immediately taken over by the board, leaving the association to operate its 3 own clinics. In the first year of the board's existence the total number of women seeking family planning services in its clinics amounted to 30,410. 4 This exceeded the target figure by 5,410 or 20 per cent. Of the total women, 14,064 were former patients of the Family Planning Association and the remaining 16,346 were new patients. T h e latter figure added to the 2,145 new patients served by the association, present an impressive increase in the number of women seeking family planning service for the first time in Singapore. Compared with the total of 9,845 new patients registered in the association's clinics in 1965, the combined total of 18,491 new patients contacted in 1966 was an increase of about 100 per cent over the previous year. The impact of government direct participation is clearly underlined by these figures.

III. Evaluation of Program The problem of assessing the family planning program in Singapore is complicated by the paucity and unreliability of the statistical information which was compiled mainly by voluntary workers who did not have the necessary training and experience in statistical work. Furthermore, the frequent changes in the voluntary personnel resulted in the discontinuity of certain tables and the lack of uniformity in the definition and presentation of data. The figures are very often inconsistent, inaccurate and incomplete for some years. More important still, some vital information necessary for sophisticated evaluation work has never been collected. The inadequacy of the statistics was encountered earlier in the first section of this chapter where the study of the association's work was restricted to items which were represented by the available figures extracted from the annual reports and the unpublished records. In many ways the defects of the figures make it difficult to evaluate the program, and the results of any evaluation work are bound to be less than conclusive.

4 Singapore, First Annual Report of Singapore Family Board (Singapore: G o v e r n m e n t Printer, 1967), p. 25.

Planning

and

Population

159 A m o n g the many aspects of a family planning program that we can evaluate, the most important one concerns the impact of the program on the trend in the general level of fertility. It may be recalled that the fertility level in Singapore commenced to fall persistently from 1957, declining from 3.234 in 1957 to 2.330 in 1965. This decline of about 27 per cent within the short span of nine years is indeed a good achievement. The key question is to what extent the recent decline in fertility can be attributed to the growth of family planning activities. At best the above question can only be answered indirectly by measuring the proportion of the currently eligible women who have been persuaded to accept family planning. As a rough guide a program is considered to be successful if it results in 10 per cent of the total married women at the reproductive ages becoming acceptors in any given year. This percentage is reckoned by taking into consideration that the other women would not be currently eligible on account of pregnancy, lactation, sterility, already practicing family planning, and wanting another child now. 5 T h e calculation of this percentage faces certain minor problems which need some explanation. The 1957 Population Census shows that there were 285,000 women within the reproductive age range of 15 to 44, and of these 192,000 or 67 per cent were married. According to the 1962 estimate, obtained by depleting the 1957 population by deaths, there were 320,000 women in this reproductive age group. Population projections based on declining mortality and declining fertility gives a figure of 389,900 for the year 1967. These three figures for the three points of time five years apart are shown in column ( 1 ) of Table 10.5. If we apply the same percentage of 67 per cent to the 1962 and 1967 figures, we will obtain the estimated number of married women for these two years. By means of linear interpolation, the corresponding figures for the intervening years are obtained and given in column ( 2 ) . Column ( 3 ) shows the total number of patients for 1959 to 1966. We can now compute the percentage of total patients to the total married women, and the results are presented in column ( 4 ) . The percentage was 7.5 per cent for 1959, and it increased to reach the 10 per cent level in 1963. Then it increased slowly next two years, and made an impressive rise to the high point of cent in 1966 when the government program was in full operation. centages which we have calculated seem to suggest that the family

regularly over the 14.6 per The perplanning

5 " N a t i o n a l F a m i l y Planning Programs: A Guide," Studies in Family N u m b e r F i v e (Supplement), D e c e m b e r 1964 ( N e w Y o r k : T h e Population pp. 1 0 - 1 1 .

Planning, Council),

160 T A B L E 10.5 PERCENTAGE OF PATIENTS TO M A R R I E D WOMEN, 1 9 5 7 - 1 9 6 7 Ages 15-49

Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967

Total Women

Married Women

Total Patients

Percentage of (3) to (2)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

285,000 *

• • «

320,900 * *

*

•

389,900

192,000 196,600

*

201,200 205,800 210,400

15,173

7.5

17,607 19,543 20,272

8.6 9.3 9.4

23,435 25,582

10.4

215,000 224,200 233,500 242,700 252,000 261,000

*

27,054 36,769 *

* *

11.0 11.1 14.6 *

' n o t available

program in Singapore has been fairly successful. However, it is important to bear in mind that the percentages are based on the number of total patients, both new and old, attending the clinics during the year. Strictly speaking, the figures pertaining to acceptors should be used but such statistics have never been compiled by the association.

11 TRENDS AND PROSPECTS

I. Future Population Trends On the basis of certain assumptions concerning the future course of migration, mortality and fertility, it is possible to estimate and analyse the probable size and composition of the population in the next two decades or so. There is a consensus of opinion that population projections are valuable in numerous ways, the most important of which is in connection with the drafting of the development plan of a country. If a development plan for an overpopulated country like Singapore is to have any chance of realistic implementation, it certainly needs a two-fold assessment of the future population trends and the implications of such trends in the field of social and economic development. Population projections by sex and quinary age group have been computed separately for each of the three main races by adopting different assumptions regarding fertility trends. The projections for the sex-age components of all races are then obtained by merely increasing the combined figures of the three races by a small percentage equivalent to that of the minority races. In this manner it is possible for us to derive not only more accurate estimates for the total of all races but also separate estimates for the main races and thus permit us to evaluate the future trends of these races. The detailed results of the computations for every quinquennium from 1967 to 1987 are presented in Appendix Three, but the salient features of these results will be discussed here. Since several different possibilities for the future appear to be almost equally plausible it is vital to prepare three sets of projections based on three different fertility assumptions corresponding to high, medium and low rates of future population growth. A projection carried out on the basis of a single fertility assumption tends to produce an unwarranted impression of confidence in its results. On the other hand, a range of possibilities as represented by three projections would give some idea of future variability and would be more valuable and flexible as a guide in the formulation of

162 social and economic programs. One may perhaps venture to state that the fertility assumptions for the three races employed in the medium projections are the most probable in the light of our knowledge concerning past performances as well as future development in fertility. Though the high and low projections may give some idea of the range of possibilities that the events in the future appear more likely to fall within than without, they need not necessarily be taken to represent the two extreme limits beyond which future events will never happen. Future Growth

Rate

According to the medium projections which assume moderate declines in fertility, the population of Singapore is expected to grow from 1,731,700 in 1962 to 3,066,500 in 1987, giving an increase of 77 per cent in twentyfive years. But the high projections based on the alternative assumption of slower fertility declines will bring the population to 3,280,900 at the end of the period, thereby increasing it to the amount of about 89 per cent. On the other hand, the population is expected to grow by no more than 66 per TABLE

11.1

PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH, 1962-1987 Population

Increase

Year

C000)

C000)

1962*

1,732.7

1967

1,976.5

%

Annual

Growth Rate

High —

—

243.8

2.7

1972

2,246.7

270.2

2.6

1977

2,557.4

310.7

2.6

1982

2,908.9

351.5

2.6

1987

3,280.9

372.0

2.4

1962*

1,732.7

Medium

1967

1,968.4

235.7

2.6

1972

2,212.4

244.0

2.3

1977

2,479.1

266.7

2.3

1982

2,771.0

291.9

2.3

1987

3,066.5

295.5

2.1

1962*

1,732.7

Low

1967

1,960.3

227.6

2.5

1972

2,179.1

218.8

2.1

1977

2,405.7

226.6

2.0

1982

2,644.9

239.2

1.9

1987

2,874.8

229.9

1.7

• Actual figures.

163 cent during the same period in accordance with the low projections based on rapid fertility declines. If our knowledge about the past tendencies and the most probable course of future events prove to be correct, there is every likelihood that the population will not fall below the lower limit or exceed the upper limit by 1987. The figures analysed in terms of the respective five-year periods are assembled in Table 11.1. According to the high projections the amount of increase is expected to indicate a rising trend throughout the whole period; whereas after 1982 the increase seems to level off according to the medium projections and even commence to fall according to the low projections. What is noteworthy is that regardless of which of the projections we have considered the next two decades or so will witness a slackening in the annual rate of population growth. It may be recalled that the breakthrough in fertility decline was achieved in about 1958 and this decline has been assumed to persist throughout the period under consideration. It would be instructive to proceed a step further by investigating whether the slackening in the annual rate of growth is expected to be a universal phenomenon shared by all the three main races. The figures included in Table 11.2 certainly show that this is not so. Only the Chinese

TABLE

11.2

PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH RATES FOR THREE MAIN RACES, 1962-1987 Period

Chinese

Malays

Indians

High 1962-67

2.4

3.7

2.1

1967-72

2.3

3.7

2.5

1972-77

2.3

3.9

2.8

1977-82

2.3

3.9

3.0

1982-87

2.1

3.8

2.8

1962-67

2.4

3.7

2.1

1967-72

2.2

3.4

2.3

1972-77

2.1

3.5

2.4

1977-82

2.0

3.5

2.6

1982-87

1.7

3.2

2.3

1962-67

2.3

3.7

1967-72

2.0

3.1

2.1

1972-77

1.7

3.0

2.1

1977-82

1.6

3.0

2.2

1982-87

1.4

2.8

1.9

Medium

Low 2.1

164 is expected to experience a slowing down in the rate of population growth according to every one of the three projections. Among the three races, the Chinese experienced the greatest reduction in fertility in the last couple of years, and this tendency will continue until the end of the period according to our assumption. The position for the other two races seems to be quite different. In general, the Indians will record an accelerated rate of population increase in either of the three projections. The Malays will apparently experience somewhat constant rates according to the high projections, slight decreasing rates according to the medium projections, and a more pronounced downward trend in the rates judging from the low projections. One of the consequences of these diverse trends among the main races is reflected in the changes in the race composition of the population in the years to come. Changes in Structure

The percentage distribution of the projected population by race is set out in Table 11.3. Judging from the percentages it would appear that the TABLE 1 1 . 3 P E R C E N T D I S T R I B U T I O N OF P R O J E C T E D P O P U L A T I O N BY RACE,

1962*

1967

Chinese

75.2

74.6

73.8

Malays

14.0

14.8

15.7

Race

1972

1962-1967

1982

1987

72.8

71.6 17.7

70.4 18.8

1977 High

Indians

8.3

8.1

8.1

16.6 8.2

8.3

8.4

Others

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Chinese

75.2

73.9

73.0

14.0

15.6

16.5

71.8 17.5

70.7

Malays

74.7 14.8

Indians

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.2

Others

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

8.3 2.4

8.4 2.3

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Chinese

75.2

74.7

74.0

73.0

72.0

Malays

14.8

16.4 8.2

71.0 18.3

8.1

15.6 8.1

17.3

Indians

14.0 8.3

Others

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

8.4 2.3

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Medium 18.6

Low

Total

' A c t u a l figures.

8.3

165 different assumptions regarding fertility which form the bases for the three sets of projections, should not lead us to expect too much variation in the race composition. For one thing, the proportion for the minority races must necessarily stay at 2.5 per cent in view of the method employed to estimate their population. As for the Indians, the proportion is expected to oscillate within the narrow range of 8.1 to 8.4 per cent. By far the most significant and clear-cut changes are expected to occur among the Chinese and the Malays. The proportion for the latter will rise from 14 per cent to about 19 per cent, and that for the former will drop from 75 per cent to about 70 per cent. This development will tend to give somewhat more weight to the voting capacity of the Malays, but one can hardly conclude that these changes would mean that the population in Singapore will not remain predominandy Chinese in composition. The overall sex ratio for Singapore is expected to progress consistently towards a more normal position as the proportion of original male immigrants to the total population is reduced with the passage of time. According to every one of the three projections, the sex ratio will be lowered from 1,092 males per thousand females in 1962 to approximately 1,046 in 1897. The sex ratio of the Chinese is expected to fall from 1,026 in 1962 to a somewhat stationary level of about 1,018 subsequent to 1972, while the Malay figure will be decreased regularly from 1,079 in 1962 to about 1,055 in 1987. A more impressive reduction is noticeable in the Indian sex ratio which will be brought down from the abnormal figure of 1,905 in 1962 to about 1,266 at the end of the period. It is fair to assume that this trend will progress beyond this period until a fairly normal ratio is attained, if Indian migration continues to be negligible, if not non-existent. We now come to perhaps the most interesting aspect of the results of the projections and this relates to the probable changes in the age structure of the future population briefly summarized in terms of five broad age groups in Table 11.4. One major development is apparent; the proportions in the first two youngest age groups are seen to fall consistently over the period. In the first group the proportion will be lowered from 18 per cent to about 14 per cent, 12 per cent and 10 per cent in accordance with the high, medium and low projections respectively. The second group will see its proportion being reduced from 28 per cent to 24, 22 or 23 per cent. This marked tendency towards a smaller proportion of children under age 15, falling from 46 per cent to 31-37 per cent, is the direct result of assuming that every one of the three main races will register a continuous fall in fertility though at diverse speeds. The second point of interest is that the proportions in the two working-

166 TABLE

11.4

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTED POPULATION BY BROAD AGE GROUP, 1962-1987 Age Group

1962*

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

High 0-4

17.5

14.8

14.2

14.3

14.2

13.5

5-14

28.1

28.7

26.4

23.7

23.4

23.6

15-29

22.8

25.0

27.6

30.6

29.3

27.6

30-59

27.8

26.5

26.2

25.2

26.8

28.9

4.3

5.0

5.6

6.0

6.2

6.4

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

CM

17.5

14.4

13.2

13.0

12.7

11.9

5-14

28.1

28.9

26.4

23.1

22.1

21.9

15-29

22.8

25.1

28.0

31.6

30.5

28.4

30-59

27.3

26.6

26.6

26.0

28.1

31.0

4.3

5.0

5.8

6.3

6.6

6.8

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

0-4

17.5

14.0

12.3

11.7

11.3

10.4

5-14

28.1

29.0

26.4

22.4

20.7

20.1

15-29

22.8

25.2

28.5

32.6

31.6

29.2

30-59

27.3

26.8

27.0

26.8

29.5

33.0

4.3

5.0

5.8

6.5

6.9

7.3

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

6 0 & Over Total

Medium

6 0 & Over Total

Low

6 0 & Over Total

* Actual figures.

age groups may be observed to progress in different directions but eventually attaining higher levels at the end of the period. In the 1 5 - 2 9 age group the proportion is expected to rise from 23 per cent in 1962 to about 31 per cent in 1977, and thereafter it will continue to fall gently but with the final figure in 1987 still remaining well above the initial level. It is quite plausible that the tendency to decrease after 1977 is engendered by persons born during the period of declining fertility entering this age group annually after that year. The movement in the 3 0 - 5 9 age group is expected to follow quite a different path. From the initial level of 2 7 per cent in 1962, the proportion will progress in a downward line until 1 9 7 7 , after which it will climb up steeply to 1987 when the figure exceeds the initial level. T o complete the picture, we note that the proportion in the oldest age group will experience a definite trend, rising regularly from 4 per cent in 1962 to about 7 per cent in 1987. The above changes discussed in terms of five age groups are sufficient

CHART 11.1

PROJECTED AGE PYRAMIDS, 1987

HIGH

200,000

100,000

0 MEDIUM

LOW

UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA

100,000

200,000

168 to pinpoint the shift in the age composition away from a very "young" one towards a "middle-age" one following the persistent reduction in fertility and the diminution in the proportion of immigrant population. A better picture of the changes viewed in the light of the various quinary age groups is to be obtained in a comparison of the 1962 age pyramid depicted in Chart 5.1 with the 1987 pyramids illustrated in Chart 11.1. The three pyramids for 1987 give an indication of how the three assumptions in respect to fertility will determine the general shape of the age pyramid at the end of the period. Certain implications may be drawn from the estimated changes in the age structure of the population in the next two decades or so. The persistent fall in the combined proportion for the first two groups can be taken to mean that there will be a lessening of the young dependency load; a smaller portion of the country's resources and efforts will be adequate to meet the problem of providing educational amenities and of creating employment opportunities for the younger members of the working population. On the other hand, the problem of the old dependency burden can be expected to worsen somewhat though not reaching such a magnitude as that of some European countries. On balance, the overall dependency burden will be lighter for the members in the working-age group between 15 and 59 where the proportion has been noted to rise substantially. II. Future Labor Force Having prepared the population projections, it would be relatively simple to proceed a stage further to compute the projections of labor force by applying the 1957 age-specific economic activity rates by sex to the population projections by sex. The results of the calculations utilizing the medium projections are summarized in Table 11.5. Aside from the assumpTABLE 11.5 PROJECTED LABOR FORCE, 1 9 6 2 - 1 9 8 7 (Based on medium projections)

Year

Working Population C000)

Increase C000)

Annual Rate of Increase

% of Total Population

1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987

542.8 627.1 739.9 868.2 992.3 1,113.7

84.3 112.8 128.3 124.1 121.4

2.9 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.3

31.3 31.9 33.4 35.0 35.8 36.3

169 tions employed in these population projections, the projected working population is based on the additional assumption that the 1957 age-specific economic activity rates will remain unchanged throughout the period up to 1987. During the first five-year period 1962-1967 the labor force is expected to grow by about 84,000, or 16,800 per year on the average. This annual addition to the labor force will continue to rise progressively until 1977 when it will tend to stabilize at about 25,500 until the end of the period. The annual figures serve to underline the number of jobs that have to be created in order to absorb the new members of the labor force and to keep the volume of unemployment at its normal level. If we compare the annual rate of increase in the labor force with the annual rate of population growth according to the medium projections given in Table 11.1, we shall see that the labor force is expected to increase at a higher rate of growth than the total population itself. This development is the inevitable outcome of the decreasing proportion of children in the total population consequent on the continuous fall in fertility. This also provides an explanation of the increasing proportion of working population to the total population shown in the last column of Table 11.5. From the economic point of view, it is advantageous to have a larger proportion of persons working and a smaller proportion of young and old dependents to be supported by these working persons. But in the context of the present acute unemployment problem this will enhance the difficulty of creating sufficient job opportunities for the new entrants into the labor market.

III. Prospects The emergence of what we commonly refer to as population problems in the late 1950's may be attributed to the accelerated rate of population growth experienced in the decade after World War II as well as to the slow or insufficient rate of expansion in commerce, industry and other major sectors of the predominantly entrepot economy. In other words, the economy has progressed to such a stage that the rapid growth of population tends to retard rather than stimulate the economic development of the country. This is quite unlike the position in the early days when the extremely high rate of increase was accompanied by a parallel expansion in the economic sector made possible by the abundance of natural resources and by the ever increasing demand for goods in the domestic and overseas markets. The pressure of overpopulation was conspicuously felt in the major fields of social and economic development. An extremely large percentage

170 of the country's resources was devoted to the provision of social services such as housing, medical care and education. T h e crucial problem is to maintain, and if possible improve, the present standards of services. T h e difficulty is to ensure that these services are adequate and that not too many resources are channeled to these sectors at the expense of developing the economic sector. In the field of economic development the prime concern is to diversify the economy through industrialization in order to provide job opportunities f o r the increasing labor force and to raise the levels of living of the rapidly growing population. T h e latter aim may be briefly examined in terms of the growth of the population and the increase in the national income as illustrated by the figures given below.

Year

National

Income

Per Capita Income

($ million)

($)

i960

2,016

1,210

1961

2,304

1,345

1962

2,407

1,371

1963

2,745

1,525

1964

2,811

1,524

1965

3,024

1,600

It was estimated that the national income went up f r o m $2,016 million in 1960 to $3,024 million in 1965, giving a total rise of 50.2 per cent. 1 T h e population, on the other hand, grew f r o m 1,665,400 at the end of 1960 to 1,875,000 at the end of

1965, which gives a rise of 12.6 per cent. T h e

combined effects led to an improvement in the per capita income which was raised f r o m $1,210 in 1960 to $1,600 in 1965. A s for the future movement in these figures, the most important point to be taken into consideration is that the government population policy, which includes a

five-year

family

planning program and possible legislation to legalize abortion, has created an entirely new situation whereby a drastic reduction in the level of fertility in the next f e w years will not be completely impossible. Since the present slackening in the rate of population growth is expected to continue, and even gather momentum if abortion is legalized, it is reasonable to conclude that the prospect f o r further improvement in the per capita income is somewhat more sanguine.

1

Three

Singapore, Years

First

Ending

Development

31st December

Plan

1961-1964;

Review

of

Progress

for

the

1963 ( S i n g a p o r e : E c o n o m i c Planning U n i t , 1964).

APPENDIX

1 ABRIDGED LIFE TABLES

The aim of this appendix is to outline in detail the methodology that has been developed to construct the two sets of abridged life tables for the two periods 1956-58 and 1961-63. All in all eight tables are computed for each period, one for each sex of All Races combined and one for each sex of the three main races. Unless otherwise stated the techniques described here are applicable to all the tables. Adjustment of Data

The basic materials employed in the calculation of the earlier abridged life tables are the annual average deaths for the years 1956-58 and the population enumerated in the 1957 Census at mid-night 17/18th June. N o attempt is being made to make any adjustment to bring the data forward to June thirtieth because the population increase of about 0.15 per cent in the fortnight or so could not result in any significant error. 1 A more serious distortion could be introduced by the abnormal conditions favoring increased deaths due to the 'Asian Flu' which occurred in Singapore at the beginning of May 1957 and caused, directly or indirectly, some additional deaths, the exact number of which it is difficult to ascertain precisely. This underlines the importance of using the mortality experience of the three-year period instead of only 1957. The data for infant deaths are available in single days f r o m 0 to 7 days, single weeks f r o m 2 to 4 weeks, and single months f r o m 2 to 11 months, while those for the post-infant deaths are broken down into quinary years f r o m 5 to 85 & over. It is this classification that determines the fineness and age groupings of the life tables, though more detailed figures are obtainable in the 1957 Census. 2 The first adjustment resorted to concerns the pro-rating of the 1956-58 deaths with unspecified ages to the various age groups f r o m 0 to 85 & over, and also the 1957 Census population of unknown ages to the age groups 1 Since the population increase at the time of the 1957 Census was of the order of 4.5 per cent, the population would have grown by about 0.15 per cent in the 12 days from census date to mid-1957. 2 The census records are classified into single months for infants under one year old and into single years for the others up to the age of 99.

172 0 to 85 & over. A more fundamental adjustment was undertaken in the Census figures for ages 1 to 4 which have been ascertained to suffer from some underenumeration. Instead of utilizing these somewhat questionable data it was deemed necessary to depend on the more accurately estimated child population derived from birth and death records. 3 T h e data used in the preparation of the second set of abridged life tables are the annual average deaths for the years 1961-63 and the estimated population by age for the year 1962. The deaths at unknown ages are treated in a similar fashion as those used in the earlier tables. The estimated population as at mid-1962 was derived from the 1957 adjusted population and the relevant data from birth and death records. The adjusted death and population data are then used to compute the agespecific death rates, except that it was decided to adopt the customary practice of deriving the mortality rate for age 0 from infant deaths and births directly. With the aid of the U.N. Model Life Tables presented in Population Studies No. 25, these computed n m x -values can be scrutinized for any likely errors that may emanate from age misstatement in census and death records. 4 From Table 1 in the appendix of this U.N. book, the equivalent general mortality 'level' of the computed n m,-values may be obtained, by linear interpolation if necessary. It is not to be expected that the mortality of each of the sixteen components for Singapore should conform exactly to the pattern of any one model. But it is reasonable to expect, if the data are accurate, that deviations from the model pattern would not be abrupt or irregular from one age to another. By means of the above method of comparison it is revealed that the computed „ n v v a l u e s for ages below mid-fifties in general are quite consistent with those of the U.N. models. While for some sex-race components the values for the older age groups are also consistent, for other components the figures seem to deviate considerably from the U.N. models. Misstatement in ages in both census and death registration was undoubtedly the primary cause of these anamolies. More specifically, by comparison with the U.N. models the n m r values look somewhat lighter at, first, the age groups 60-64 and 7 0 - 7 4 and, second, the last age group 85 & over. The former error could be attributed to a greater preference for the terminal digit 0 in the population figures than in the death records, while the latter error is probably the result of age misstatement in both population and death records. Having recognized the inaccuracies the next problem is to seek a satisfactory method of smoothing or adjusting the faulty age-specific death rates. One possible way of accomplishing this is to reject the suspected rates and to 3 In the case of the Malay males and females the original census figures for age 1 to 4 were used since these figures were found to be greater than the estimated figures derived from the vital records.

* United Nations

Manual

III: Methods

for Population

Projections

ST/504 Series A, Population Studies No. 25 (New York, 1956).

by Sex and

Age,

173 insert corrected rates by means of G o m p e r t z ' or M a k e h a m ' s law of mortality. 5 However, a few calculations show that both the techniques are not very suitable, the corrected rates at the old ages seem to be far too light in relation to the original rates at the younger ages. As opposed to this rigid mathematical approach, there is the simple graphic technique which entails the plotting of the n m x -values on a graph and the hand-smoothing of the curve at the older ages where inaccuracies exist. T h e main shortcoming of this technique is perhaps the arbitrary nature of drawing the curve without any means of ensuring that the corrected death rates are not unrealistic in the sense of being too heavy or too light. As a possible solution it was decided to adopt a procedure whereby the faulty n m x -values are adjusted with the aid of the U . N . Model Life Tables. Briefly, the procedure calls for the insertion of alternative and more plausible U . N . levels and the derivation of the corrected n m x -values according to these substituted U . N . levels. In inserting the levels, great care was exercised in order to ensure that firstly, the substituted levels do not depart widely f r o m the original levels, and secondly, the progression of the substituted levels continues regularly f r o m that of the original ones for the younger age groups. A satisfactory compromise between optimum smoothness and o p t i m u m consistency with the observed rates is the cardinal principle underlying the technique. It is perhaps relevant to mention that in so far as the n q x , / x , n d x and n L x columns are concerned, the m a j o r portion of these functions below the corrected age groups remains unaffected by the errors, if any, that might be introduced by this technique; only the last two columns, T v and e \ , will be affected throughout the age range. Derivation of Life-Table Functions T h e corrected n m x -values, given in Tables 1.1 and 1.2, f o r m the basis of calculating the various functions of the abridged life tables presented in Tables 1.3 to 1.18. T h e precise methods employed in the computation are briefly discussed below. T h e life-table death rates l , 0 0 0 n q x , refer to the probability of dying per 1,000 alive at the beginning of the age interval. Except for age below one year, these rates are derived f r o m the age-specific death rates, n m x , which have been subjected to some adjustment and the graduation process. Using the f o r m u l a nqx

—, the values of 2 + n.„m x

nqx

f r o m age one upwards are computed. 6 T h e

5

See Morton D. Miller, Elements of Graduation, Actuarial Monograph No. 1 (Philadelphia: The Actuarial Society of America, 1946). 0 The relatively crude formula was used for instead of for instance the more refined formula, ,,q, = _1_ + »m* n

'A +_n (,m, 12

0.09)"

174 increasing number of

births necessitates the calculation

of

q„ directly

from

infant death and birth records in f o u r separate computations according to the f o l l o w i n g formulae, where f o r instance p r> \ P } ' and pr\] denote births in the year 1955, births in the fourth quarter of 1955, and births in D e c e m b e r of 1955 respectively.

(0-1

rath.)

Deaths in 1956-58 (age 0 - 1 mth.)

—

5

V2V™ +05ti

+P''7

(1-3 mth.) — . 1/2

n

Mo

q0

(3-6 m t h . )

)

~V2fi:{?

Deaths in 1 9 5 6 - 5 8 ( a g e 1 - 3 m t h . ) ° +/3S« +/S58 - 1/2 + P™ )

Deaths in 1956-58 ( a g e 3 - 6 m t h . )

—

!/2/3f

(6-12 m t h . )

_

+(3o8

_

l/2^8

Deaths in 1956-58 ( a g e 6 - 1 2 m t h . ) 1/2 (/9f

) +/9jp + / 3 f + f ? 3 « + £ r ' 7 Vi(0}8

-/sf)

T h e sum of the above f o u r probabilities of death will give the required mortality rate q„ f o r age under one year. The

second column

showing the values

of

/x refers to the number

of

survivors at the beginning of the age interval, and is obtained by a direct mathematical procedure on the basis of the life-table death rates according to the formula, l x = / x _ n - ( / x _ n X

nqx_„).

T h e ,,dx column refers to the number of deaths occurring within an age interval and can be easily obtained by a subtraction of successive values of /x. Thus,

n

dx= Cx-'x + J.

T h e ,,L X column represents the number of years that will be lived collectively within any one age interval by a cohort numbering

10,000 at birth and

subject to the given mortality conditions. O w i n g to the v e r y uneven distribution since it was felt that, in view of the serious errors in the data whose effect was reduced by the adjustment made but by no means completely eliminated, it would give a quite false sense of the precision being attained if a more recondite formula were used, and it was doubted whether the refinement would in fact lead to greater precision in the final answer under these circumstances. For a discussion of the theoretical aspects of the above formula, see Mortimer Spiegelman, Introduction to Demography (Chicago: The Society of Actuaries, 1955), pp. 88-89.

175 of d e a t h s in the first year of life, it is necessary to derive L„ in f o u r separate stages by s u m m i n g the results of the following calculations." It is k n o w n that t h e distribution of deaths in the second year of life is still u n e v e n , and it has been ascertained that by equating L , to 0.45/, + 0.551 2 fairly satisfactory results can be attained. H F o r ages f r o m two to f o u r , L x is t a k e n as the average of l x and / x and for the other quinary age groups r ,L x is 5 ( / , + /, + .,) 2 T h e T x c o l u m n indicates t h e n u m b e r of years that will be lived collectively, f r o m the given age u p w a r d s , by the survivors to that age f r o m the original c o h o r t of 10,000 births. T h e values of T x may be obtained by c u m u l a t i v e addi85 tions of the n L x c o l u m n f r o m the bottom up, and Ts.-, = /„, 5-= in t h e case of the o5 last age g r o u p . 9 T h e last c o l u m n depicting the values of e° x represents the individual e x p e c t a t i o n of life. If, as in Table 1.5, 10,000 Chinese males at birth are expected to live collectively 6 0 9 , 3 7 5 years, then the Chinese male c a n be expected to live o n the average a b o u t 60.9 years at birth. Similarly, the values of e" x f o r the rest of the age g r o u p s m a y be derived by dividing T x by the corresponding / x . T h u s , e" x = T— *V e q u a t e d to

7 The values of L , i . ' Ii „ 1 ; U mih and i< . t t may be obtained in the usual manner from the four corresponding values of q„.

L(0-1 mth.) )

=

L(l-3 mth. 1 =

^ (Al mrli. + 'l nith. ) 2 Cl mih. + '.3 mth.) * T T

L(3-6 mth.) — V2 ('3 mth. + '(> mth.)

L(6-12 mth.) 8

=

(l>i mih. +

mih. )

See Saw Swee-Hock, "Malaya: Tables of Male Working Life, 1957," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A—General, Vol. 128, Part 3, 1965, pp. 4 2 1 ^ 3 8 . 0 In Manual III: Methods for Population Projections by Sex and Age, S T / S O A / Series A, Population Studies No. 25 (New York, 1956), it is stated in page 23 that L™ is easily "obtained by multiplying by its own logarithm," but this is not quite tenable because there is no evidence of mKr,. In fact, this procedure implies equating to log Ibut the former depends only on mortality after 85 and the latter only on mortality before 85.

176

T A B L E 1.1

ADJUSTED AGE-SPECIFIC DEATH RATES BY RACE AND SEX, 1956-58 All R a c e s A g e Group

Males

Chinese

Females

Males

Malays

Females

Males

Indians

Females

Males

Females

0 1

47.51

37.61

38.33

29.81

99.46

80.33

42.57

34.18

8.15

8.24

6.68

7.19

14.42

6.79

2

4.70

4.82

4.32

4.66

16.40 7.42

6.93

3.52

6.43 2.79

3.11

3

2.83

3.00

2.75

2.87

3.19

4 5-9

1.24

2.02

2.37

1.94

3.14

4.27 2.82

1.28

1.20

1.24

0.73

1.14 0.63

1.59

1.03 1.21

1.16 0.98

2.01

10-14

1.20 1.95

1.18

0.69

1.18 1.92

0.83

0.88

1.47 1.52

0.68

1.12

20-24 25-29

1.58

1.26

1.85

1.60

2.25 3.03

1.10 1.13

1.99

30-34

2.53

1.88

4.16

2.68

3.40 4.65

3.09

3.06

2.43 2.89

2.18

35-39

2.52 3.97

1.58 2.19

0.97 1.25

1.42

1.73

1.54 1.80

6.06

4.73

6.18

4.24

6.69

8.29

4.04 5.19

4.48

40-44 45-49 50-54

10.24

6.44

10.42

5.78

10.73

11.66

10.35

9.58

16.83

8.58

55-59

16.08 27.79

14.70

27.42

13.15

17.11 24.83

17.85 22.82

8.75 16.57 25.80

60-64

42.23

22.76

45.36

20.60

39.76

32.56

35.27

26.67 37.82

65-69 70-74

68.99

33.93

69.49

33.00

45.43

50.85

58.82

95.76 135.38 189.09

52.57 80.34

98.13

52.20

58.31 84.43

71.71

74.35

83.33

143.11 211.59

79.04

113.55

107.63

124.61

126.16

172.65

154.64

117.64 163.98

347.37

239.20

274.97

260.56

262.90

287.89

15-19

75-79 80-84 8 5 & Over

284.10

125.45 236.22

1.09

1.73 1.39

6.83 18.18

176.94

177

TABLE 1.2 ADJUSTED AGE-SPECIFIC DEATH RATES BY RACE AND SEX, 1961-63 All Races Age Group 0 1 2 3 4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69

Males 34.74 4.70 2.73 1.48 1.30 0.81 0.72 1.14 1.40 1.49 1.93 2.97 4.88 8.00 14.76 23.20 42.00 57.99

70-74 75-79 80-84

92.13 125.89

8 5 & Over

283.97

187.54

Females 26.02 4.28 2.52 1.79 1.09 0.76 0.53 0.73 0.98 1.05 1.54 2.28 3.56 5.01 8.91 11.25 20.28 29.21 51.99 75.21 124.78 228.62

Chinese Males 29.85 3.40 2.43 1.34 1.07 0.82 0.33 1.10 1.32 1.60 2.16 3.38 5.24 8.15 15.39 24.53 44.68 61.60 96.58 138.93 206.61 332.54

Females 22.13 3.21 2.14 1.58 1.08 0.73 0.48 0.68 0.78 0.96 1.34 2.11 3.18 4.58 8.10 11.86 20.05 26.54 49.97 77.48 125.92 231.51

Malays Males

Indians

Females

54.64 11.31 5.12

42.49

2.77 2.97 0.88 0.92 1.59 1.72

3.60 1.65 0.97 0.83 1.12 1.40 2.08 2.41 3.40 5.48 8.40 14.97 21.68 31.76

1.30 1.47 2.08 4.78 7.73 14.69 22.87 36.12 50.66 82.48 112.10 168.72 273.53

8.94 5.13

Males 35.16 2.88 1.75 0.79

43.17 70.61 104.96

0.96 1.44 0.76 1.01 1.21 1.35 1.67 2.83 4.43 8.50 12.56 18.01 26.81 38.78 73.27 109.64

152.34 259.56

162.07 260.32

Females 26.35 3.69 1.54 0.56 0.83 0.73 0.60 0.68 1.22 1.42 2.29 2.56 4.04 8.27 16.88 23.06 29.50 47.43 76.67 115.19 174.01 275.67

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