Population Projections for Singapore 1980–2070 9789814345941

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Population Projections for Singapore 1980-2070

by

Saw Swee-Hoclc.

Research Notes and Discussions Paper No. 39 INSTITUTE OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES 1983

Pub 11 shed by lnst1tute of Southeast As1an StudieS Heng Mu1 Keng Terrace Pas1r PanJang S 1ngapore 0511 All r1ghts reserved, No part of th1s publ1cat1on may be reproduced, stored 1n a retrieval system, or transmitted 1n any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherw1se, w1thout the pr1or permiSSion of the Institute of Southeast As1an Studies, © 1983 lnst1tute of Southeast As1an Studies ISSN 0129-8828 ISBN 9971-902-68-0

CONTENTS

Page 1v

LIST OF TABLES INTRODUCTION II

METHOD

2

III

ASSUMPTIONS

4

ProJeCt1on A

4

ProJeCt1on B

5

IV

DATA

6

v

COMMENTS ON RESULTS

7

111

LIST OF TABLES

Page 1 2 3

4 5 6

Projected Total Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projectlon A)

8

Projected Male Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projectl on A)

12

Projected Female Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Project10n A)

16

Projected Total Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (PrOJeCt10n B)

20

Projected Male Population by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projectlon B)

24

Projected Female Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (ProJect10n B)

28

iv

INTRODUCTION

Th1s paper presents the deta1led results of the computation of the population projectlons for S1ngapore by sex and for tlmelntervals of flve years from 1980 to 2070. Two sets of f1gures were prepared to ind1cate two plaus1ble future courses of populat1on trends, one accord1ng to replacement fert1lity from 1990 thereafter and the other according to constant 1980 They are known as Projectlon A and ProJeCtlon B, fert1l1ty. respect1vely. A brief descript1on of the methodology adopted to prepare these popu 1 at 10n proJect 1on s and a short commentary on the results of the computat1on are also presented.

1

II

METHOD

The proJections were prepared by what 1s known as the component method which consists of the separate proJect1ons of the number of males and females 1n each age of the populat1on. As a matter of conven1ence we proJect the population by time-1ntervals equal to the age-1ntervals 1nto which it has been d1v1ded. S1nce the 1980 base population has been div1ded 1nto qu1nary age groups, the prOJections are most eas1ly made for five-year 1nterval s of time wh1ch implies that at the end of the f1ve-year penod all the survivors of one age group would have moved into the next Each cohort of the 1980 sex-age group is h1gher age group. d1minished to account for mortal1ty w1th the passage of t1me. This step requires a set of five-year surv1Val rat1os wh1ch are deemed to represent mortality 1n each cohort dur1ng spec1f1c periods of time subsequent to 1980. A multipl1cat1on of the original number 1n each sex-age group by the relevant rat1o w1ll yield the estimated number of persons f1ve years older at a date wh1ch is f1Ve years later, namely, 1985. A repetit10n of the procedure will furnish the estimated populat10n age ten years older than those at the base date and for the ten years later. The second step 1nvolves the estimation of the future number of children born 1n each f1ve-year t1me-1nterval subsequent to the base date 1n order to f1ll 1n the vacuum in the first age group 0-4 at penods of time every f1ve years later. To beg1n w1th, it 1s essent1al to formulate a set of plausible assumptions regard1ng the future course of fert1l1ty 1n terms of the gross reproduction rates w1th their equ1valent age-specific fert1lity rates. Hav1ng worked out these rates, they are then utilized in conJunction w1th the female population 1n the relevant reproduct1ve age groups to derive the estimated number of births for the various f1ve-year penods. The number of births surviv1ng to the end of a given flve-year penod can be est1mated by multiplying the number of b1rths during the per1od w1th the appropr1ate surv1val ratio. Th1s est1mated 2

number of surv1 vors 1s used to f1ll the vacuum 1n the f1 rst age group 0-4.

3

III ASSUMPTIONS

In prepar1ng the two sets of populat1on proJeCt1ons 1t 1s necessary to make certa1n assumpt1ons regard1ng the future course of m1grat1on, mortal1ty, and fert1l1ty. The follow1ng assumpt1ons were adopted for ProJeCt1on A and ProJeCt1on B:

Projection A

M1 grat 10n It 1s assumed that the populat1on 1n S1ngapore 1s a closed populat1on not subJected to 1nternat1onal m1grat1on.

Mort a 11 ty It 1s assumed that the 1979-81 mortality level w1th a l1fe expectancy at b1 rth of 68.4 years tor the males and 74.3 years for the females w1ll 1mprove over t1me to a l1fe expectancy of 72.6 for the males by 2040 and a l1fe expectancy of 75.2 by 200~ for the females.

Fert1l1ty It 1s assumed that the gross reproduct1 on rate w1ll r1 se from 0.841 1n 1980 to 0.939 1n 1985 and to 1.025 1n 1990, after wh1ch l t w1ll rema1n constant at th1s replacement fert1l1ty level unt1l 2070. 4

Projection B

M1grat1on It 1s assumed that the populat1on 1n S1ngapore is populat1on not subjected to 1nternat1onal migration.

a closed

Mortal1ty It 1s assumed that the 1979-81 mortal1ty level w1th a l1fe expectancy at birth of 68.4 years for the males and 74.3 years for the females w1ll 1mprove over t1me to a l1fe expectancy of 72.6 for the males by 2040 and a life expectancy of 75.2 by 2005 for the females.

Fertility It 1s assumed that the gross reproduction rate will remain constant below the replacement fertility level at the 1980 rate of 0.841 throughout the whole period of projection.

5

IV

DATA

The 1980 base populat1on class1f1ed by sex and qu1nary age group up to age 85 and over 1s obta1ned from the populat10n census The f1gures are g1ven 1n Census of conducted 1n June 1980. Population 1980, Release No. 1, publ1shed by the Department of Stat1st1cs, S1ngapore. The surv1val rat1os are obta1ned from the 1979-81 Abr1dged L1fe Tables prepared by the author and publ1shed 1n "Increas1ng L1fe Expectancy 1n S1ngapore Dur1ng 1969-1981", Singapore Medica] Journal 24 (1983). The values of the surv1val rat1os, known as Px, for the var1 ous qu1 nary age groups for each of the two sexes are computed from the values of the Lx column of the Abr1dged L1fe Tables. The age-spec1flc fert1lity rates and the gross reproduct10n rates are based on populat1on data publ1shed 1n the above census report and on b1rth data publ1shed 1n the Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths for the year 1980. The female populat10n by qu1nary age group and the b1rths by s1m1lar age group of mothers are ut1l1zed to compute the age-spec1f1c fert1l1ty rate and the gross reproduct1on rates. The former rates are appl1ed to the future female populat1on 1n the reproduct 1ve ages to est 1mate the b1 rths that w1ll occur 1n every five-year per1od.

6

v COMMENTS ON RESULTS

The deta1led results of the computat10n for ProJeCtlon A and Projectlon Bare presented in Tables 1 to 6. The f1gures for Projection A g1ven 1n Table 1 show that 1f fert1l1ty measured by the gross reproduct1on rate 1ncreases from 0.841 in 1980 to 0.939 1n 1985 and then to 1.025 1n 1990 and thereafter, the populat1on of S1ngapore is expected to 1ncrease from 2,413,945 1n 1980 to 3,087,303 1n 2000 and to 3,499,822 1n 2020. It continues to 1ncrease to 3,599,540 in 2035, and after this it declines to 3,582,173 1n 2050. Thereafter 1t 1ncreases again but very slowly, reach1ng 3,604,089 1n 2070. In fact, 1n broad terms the populat1on 1s seen to rema1n constant at about 3.6 m1llion from 2025 onwards. The f1gures for PrOJeCtlOn B g1Ven 1n Table 4 reveal that a completely d1fferent path would be followed by the population in the future if the gross reproduction rate rema1ns constant at the 1980 level of 0.841. In th1s case the population is expected to grow from 2,413,945 1n 1980 to 2,945,060 1n 2000 and to the peak of 3,129,313 in 2020, after which it follows a downward trend all the way. From the peak of 3,129,313, the populat1on will decl1ne to 2,990,138 in 2035, to 2,703,184 1n 2050, and f1nally to 2,361,677 at the end of the per1od 1n 2070.

7

TABLE 1 Projected Total Popula-tion by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection A)

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

0-4 5-9

193,684 223,883

227,017 193,191

262,835 226,439

263,572 262,166

239,977 262,901

10-14 15-19

235,556 287,420

223,536 234,963

192,957 223, 130

226,166 192,656

261,849 225,814

20-24 25-29

296, 192 253,531

286,301 294,800

234, 168 285,100

222,510 233,344

192,210 221,828

30-34 35-39

211,040 135,767

252,230 209,611

293,481 250,687

283,943 291,819

232,397 282,335

40-44 45-49

131,475 107,245

134,324 129,062

207,550 131,993

248,486 204,334

289,402 244,923

50-54 55-59

93,136 71,384

103,749 88,090

124,995 98,508

128, 183 119,130

198,904 122,550

60-64 65-69

59,708 49,310

65,218 51,887

80,649 57,063

90,743 71,080

110,296 80,536

70-74 75-79

33,344 18,616

39,070 23,540

41,420 27,852

46,012 29,991

57,961 33,515

8,035 4,619

11,473 5,103

14,771 6,665

17,643 8,694

19, 115 10,790

2,413,945

2,573,165

2,760,263

2,940,472

3,087,303

Age Group

80-84 85 & Over

Total

8

TABLE 1 (Continued) Projected To-tal Popula-tion by Age Group. (Projection A)

Age Group

198~2070

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

0-4 5-9

222,468 239,365

223,213 221,901

239,101 222,643

251,160 238,492

248,846 250,520

10-14 15-19

262,584 261,441

239,076 262,175

221 ,633 238,704

222,374 221,288

238,204 222,027

2Q-24 25-29

225,292 191,621

260,837 224,603

261,569 260,038

238,152 260,768

220,777 237,423

30-34 35-39

220,927 231,082

190,842 219,675

223,691 189,761

258,981 222,424

259,709 257,514

4Q-44 45-49

279,998 285,483

229,170 276,207

217,855 226,069

188,188 214,904

220,560 185,637

5Q-54 55-59

238,804 190,703

278,787 229,424

270,084 268,331

221,060 260,451

210,137 213,182

6Q-64 65-69

113,935 98,476

177,934 102,055

214,603 159,899

251,626 193,486

244,853 227,539

70-74 75-79

66,140 42,545

81,357 48,917

84,692 60,545

133,254 63,329

161,880 100,101

8Q-84 85 & Over

21 ,457 12,336

27,405 13,979

31,726 17,169

39,518 20,374

41,307 25,038

3,204,657

3,307,557

3,408,113

3,499,829

3,565,254

Total

9

TABLE 1 (Continued) Projected Total Popula"tlon by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection A)

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-4 5-9

238,312 248,212

231,831 237,704

234,670 231,241

242, 107 234,072

238,277 241,490

10-14 15-19

250,218 237,832

247,912 249,828

237,417 247,525

230,962 237,047

233,790 230,602

20-24 25-29

221,514 220,101

237,283 220,836

249,251 236,556

246,954 248,487

236,500 246,198

30-34 35-39

236,458 258,238

219,207 235,119

219,940 217,965

235,596 218,694

247,478 234,261

40-44 45-49

255,381 217,573

256,099 251,923

233,171 252,631

216,160 230,013

216,882 213,232

50-54 55-59

181,516 202,638

212,748 175,032

246,336 205,157

247,028 237,547

224,911 238,213

60-64 65-69

200,913 222,075

190,960 182,230

164,933 173,181

193,334 149,561

223,858 175,335

70-74 75-79

191,080 122,162

187,305 144,860

154,361 142,737

147,235 118,238

127,133 112,741

65,249 27,825

79,565 39,098

94,250 49,991

92,814 60,618

76,867 64,405

3,597,297

3,599,540

3,591,313

3,586,467

3,582,173

Age Group

80-84 85 & Over

Total

10

TABLE 1 (Continued) Projected Tatal Popula"tlon by Age Group., 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2055

2060

2065

2070

0-4 5-9

244,030 237,670

239,500 243,408

237,681 238,890

239,844 237,075

10-14 15-19

241,198 233,426

237,384 240,809

243,114 237,016

238,602 242,735

20-24 25-29

230,069 235,776

232,887 229,365

240,253 232,174

236,471 239,517

30-34 35-39

245,198 246,076

234,819 243,809

228,433 233,489

231,231 227,139

40-44 45-49

232,321 213,945

244,038 229, 175

241,790 240,733

231,555 238,516

50-54 55-59

208,502 216,886

209,200 201,062

224,092 201,735

235,394 216,096

60-64 65-69

224,486 203,017

204,387 203,587

189,475 185,359

190,110 171,835

70-74 75-79

149,066 97,329

172,602 114,144

173,086 132,166

157,589 132,537

73,262 59,300

63,232 55,604

74,175 49,827

85,887 51,956

3,591,557

3,599,012

3,603,488

3,604,089

80-84 85 & Over

Total

11

TABLE 2 Projected Male Popullftlon by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

0-4 5-9

100,847 115,770

117,283 100,595

135,787 116,990

136,167 135,448

123,978 135,827

10-14 15-19

120,857 148,236

115,585 120,482

100,454 115,319

116,826 100,273

135,258 116,616

20-24 25-29

152,832 129,407

147,465 151,884

119,916 146,639

114,915 119,400

100,012 114,524

30-34 35-39

107,368 68,882

128,578 106,488

151,094 127,678

145,994 150,172

118,875 145,103

40-44 45-49

66,497 54,756

67,987 64,968

105,221 66,532

126,363 103,243

148,775 124,278

50-54 55-59

48,322 36,989

52,478 44,997

62,343 49,098

64,084 58,602

99,774 60,502

60-64 65-69

29,795 23,737

32,942 24,858

40,133 27,747

44,115 34,121

53,000 37,820

70-74 75-79

15,429 7,857

17,356 9,728

18,313 10,993

20,774 11,847

25,925 13,698

2,891 1,288

4,369 1,288

5,521 1'749

6,353 2,316

6,964 2,836

1,231, 760

1,309,331

1,401,527

1,491,013

1,563, 765

80-84 85 & Over

Total

12

TABLE 2 (Continued) Projected Male Population by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection A>

Age Group

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

0-4 5-9

114,932 123,668

115,317 114,645

123,586 115,029

129,754 123,277

128,559 129,430

10-14 15-19

135,637 135,015

123,495 135,393

114,484 123,273

114,868 114,278

123,104 114,661

20-24 25-29

116,313 99,672

134,664 115,918

135,041 134,206

122,952 134,582

113,981 122,534

30-34 35-39

114,020 118,150

99,233 113,324

115,408 98,628

133,615 114,704

133,990 132,800

40-44 45-49

143,754 146,558

117,051 141,612

112,270 115,307

97,711 110,597

113,637 96,255

50-54 55-59

120,500 94,596

142,557 114,728

138,100 136,256

112,447 132,493

107,854 107,882

60-64 65-69

55,045 45,787

86,536 47,900

105,527 75,849

126,023 93, 180

123,165 112,034

70-74 75-79

29,114 17,390

35,686 19,844

37,750 24,684

60,399 26,470

74,935 42,895

8, 186 3,285

10,559 3,930

12,256 5,061

15,502 6,158

16,623 7,826

1,621,622

1,672,392

1, 722,715

1,769,010

I ,802,165

80-84 85 & Over

Total

13

TABLE 2 (Continued) Projected Male Popula"tlon by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-4 5-9

123,115 128,238

119,766 122,807

121,234 119,467

125,075 120,931

119,281 124,762

1Q-14 15-19

129,249 122,882

128,058 129,016

122,635 127,827

119,300 122,414

120,762 119,085

2Q-24 25-29

114,363 113,593

122,563 113,974

128,681 122,146

127,495 128,243

122,096 127,062

3Q-34 35-39

121,994 133,173

113,093 121,250

113,473 112,403

121,609 112,781

127,679 120,867

40-44 45-49

131,565 111,944

131,934 129,605

120, 122 129,968

111,358 118,332

111,732 109,698

5Q-54 55-59

93,868 103,475

109,168 90,057

126,391 104,736

126,745 121,260

115,397 121,599

60-64 65-69

100,773 110,171

96,656 90,141

84,122 86,459

97,834 75,247

113,269 87,513

7Q-74 75-79

90,960 53,893

90,307 66,246

74,538 66,574

72,064 55,561

62,718 53,717

8Q-84 85 & Over

26,938 8,963

33,845 13,359

41 ,602 17,820

41,808 22,432

34,892 24,251

1,819,157

1,821,845

1,820,198

1,820,489

1,816,380

Total

14

TABLE 2 {Continued) Projected Male Popula1"1on by Age Group., 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2055

2060

0-4 5-9

126,070 118,983

123,730 125,755

122,790 123,421

123,909 122,483

10-14 15-19

124,587 120,545

118,816 124,363

125,579 118,602

123,248 125,353

20-24 25-29

118,775 121,681

120,232 118,371

124,040 119,823

118,294 123,618

30-34 35-39

126,503 126,900

121,146 125,731

117,850 120,407

119,296 117, 131

40-44 45-49

119,743 110,067

125,720 117,959

124,562 123,847

119,287 122,706

50-54 55-59

106,977 110,712

107,337 102,634

115,034 102,979

120,776 110,364

60-64 65-69

113,586 101,319

103,416 101,603

95,870 92,506

96,193 85,756

70-74 75-79

72,942 46,750

84,450 54,371

84,686 62,949

77,104 63,125

80-84 85 & Over

33,734 22,326

29,359 21,163

34,145 19,072

39,532 20,089

1,822,200

1,826,156

1,828,162

1,828,264

Total

15

2065

2070

TABLE 3 Projected F-Ie Popuhrtlon by Age Group. 198D-2070 (Projection A)

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Q-4 5-9

92,837 108,113

109,734 92,596

127,048 109,449

127,405 126,718

115,999 127,074

10-14 15-19

114,699 139,184

107,951 114,481

92,503 107,811

109,340 92,383

126,591 109,198

20-24 25-29

143,360 124,124

138,836 142,916

114,252 138,461

107,595 113,944

92,198 107,304

30-34 3~-39

103,672 66,885

123,652 103,123

142,387 123,009

137,949 141,647

113,522 137,232

40-44 45-49

64,978 52,489

66,337 64,094

102,329 65,461

122,123 101,091

140,627 120,645

50-54 55-59

44,814 34,395

51,271 43,093

62,652 49,410

64,099 60,528

99,130 62,048

60-64 65-69

29,913 25,573

32,276 27,029

40,516 29,316

46,628 36,959

57,296 42,716

70-74 75-79

17,915 10,759

21,714 13,812

23,107 16,859

25,238 18,144

32,036 19,817

5,144 3,331

7,104 3,815

9,250 4,916

11,290 6,378

12,151 7,954

1,182,185

1,263,834

1,358,736

1,449,459

1,523,538

Age Group

80-84 85 & Over

Total

16

TABLE 3 (Continued) Projected F-Ie Popula-tion by Age Group, 198~2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Q-4 5-9

107,536 115,697

107,896 107,256

115,515 107,614

121,406 115,215

120,287 121,090

10-14 15-19

126,947 126,426

115,581 126,782

107,149 115,431

107,506 107,010

115,100 107,366

2Q-24 25-29

108,979 91,949

126,173 108,685

126,528 125,832

115,200 126,186

106,796 114,889

30-34 35-39

106,907 112,932

91,609 106,351

108,283 91,133

125,366 107,720

125,719 124,714

40-44 45-49

136,244 138,925

112, 119 134,595

105,585 110,762

90,477 104.307

106,923 89,382

5Q-54 55-59

118,304 96, 107

136,230 114,696

131,984 132,075

108,613 127,958

102,283 105,300

60-64 65-69

58,890 52,689

91,398 54, 155

109,076 84,050

125,603 100,306

121,688 115,505

70-74 75-79

37,026 25,155

45,671 29,073

46,942 35,861

72,855 36,859

86,945 57.206

8Q-84 85 & Over

13,271 9,051

16,846 10,049

19,470 12,108

24,016 14,216

24,684 17,212

1,583,035

1,635,165

1,685,398

1,730,819

1,763,089

Total

17

TABLE 3 (Continued) Projected fe..le Popula-tion by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2030

2040

2035

2045

2050

0-4 5-9

115,197 119,974

112,065 114,897

113,436 111,774

117,032 113,141

118,996 116,728

10-14 15-19

120,969 114,950

119,854 120,812

114,782 119,698

111,662 114,633

113,028 111,517

20-24 25-29

107,151 106,508

114,720 106,862

120,570 114,410

119,459 120,244

114,404 119,136

30-34 35-39

114,464 125,065

106,114 113,869

106,467 105,562

113,987 105,913

119,799 113,394

40-44 45-49

123,816 105,629

124,165 122,318

113,049 122,663

104,802 111,681

105,150 103,534

50-54 55-59

87,648 99,163

103,580 84,975

119,945 100,421

120,283 116,287

109,514 116,614

60-64 65-69

100,140 111,904

94,304 92,089

80,811 86,722

95,500 74,314

110,589 87,822

70-74 75-79

100, 120 68,269

96,998 78,614

79,823 76,163

75,171 62,677

64,415 59,024

38,311 18,862

45,720 25,739

52,648 32,171

51,006 38,186

41,975 40,154

1, 778,140

1, 777,695

1,771,115

1,765,978

1, 765,793

80-84 85 & Over

Total

18

TABLE 3 (Continued) Projected Fa..le Popula-tion by Age Group. (Projection A)

Age Group

2055

2060

1~2070

2065

2070

0-4 5-9

117.960 118,687

115,770 117,653

114,891 115,469

115,935 114,592

10-14 15-19

116,611 112,881

118,568 116,446

117,535 118,414

115,354 117,382

20-24 25-29

111,294 114,095

112,655 110,994

116,213 112,351

118,177 115,899

30-34 35-39

118,695 119, 176

113,673 118,078

110,583 113,082

111,935 110,008

40-44 45-49

112,578 103,878

118,318 111,216

117,228 116,886

112,268 115,810

50-54 55-59

101,525 106,174

101,863 98,428

109,058 98,756

114,618 105,732

60-64 65-69

110,900 101,698

100,971 101,984

93,605 92,853

93,917 86,079

70-74 75-79

76, 124 50,579

88,152 59,773

88,400 69,217

80,485 69,412

80-84 85 & Over

39,528 36,974

33,873 34,441

40,030 30,755

46,355 31,867

1, 769,357

1, 772,856

1, 775,326

1,775,825

Total

19

TABLE 4 Projected Total Popula-tion by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection 8)

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

0-4 5-9

193,684 223,883

214,802 193,191

225,354 214,255

215,093 224,780

195,582 214,545

10-14 15-19

235,556 287,420

223,536 234,963

192,957 223, 130

213,996 192,656

224,508 213,663

20-24 25-29

296,192 253,531

286,301 294,800

234, 168 285,100

222,510 233,344

192,210 221,828

30-34 35-39

211,040 135,767

252,230 209,611

293,481 250,687

283,943 291,819

232,397 282,335

40-44 45-49

131,475 107,245

134,324 129,062

207,550 131,993

248,486 204,334

289,402 244,923

50-54 55-59

93, 136 71,384

103,749 88,090

124,995 98,508

128,183 119,130

198,904 122,550

60-64 65-69

59,708 49,310

65,218 51,887

80,649 57,063

90,743 71,080

110,296 80,536

70-74 75-79

33,344 18,616

39,070 23,540

41,420 27,852

46,012 29,991

57,961 33,515

8,035 4,619

11,473 5, 103

14,771 6,665

17,643 8,694

19,115 10,790

2,413,945

2,560,950

2,710,598

2,842,437

2,945,060

Age Group

80-84 85 & Over

Total

20

TABLE 4 (Continued) Projected Total Popula-tion by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection 8)

Age Group

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Q-4 5-9

179,568 195,083

174,183 179, 110

176,319 173,739

175,706 175,869

168,178 175,258

10-14 15-19

214,286 224,158

194,848 213,952

178,893 194,545

173,529 178,615

175,657 173,259

20-24 25-29

213,169 191,621

223,640 212,517

213,458 222,955

194,096 212,804

178,202 193,501

30-34 35-39

220,927 231,082

190,842 219,675

211,653 189,761

222,050 210,454

211,940 220,792

40-44 45-49

279,998 285,483

229,170 276,207

217,855 226,069

188,188 214,904

208,711 185,637

50-54 55-59

238,804 190,703

278,787 229,424

270,084 268,331

221,060 260,451

210,137 213,182

60-64 65-69

113,935 98,476

177,934 102,055

214,603 159,899

251,626 193,486

244,853 227,539

70-74 75-79

66,140 42,545

81,357 48,917

84,692 60,545

133,254 63,329

161,880 100,101

80-84 85 & Over

21,457 12,336

27,405 13,979

31,726 17,169

39,518 20,374

41,307 25,038

3,019,771

3,074,002

3,112,296

3,129,313

3,115,172

Total

21

TABLE 4 (Continued} Projected Total Popula"tlon by Age Group,. 1980-2070 (Projection B)

Age Group

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-4 5-9

157,611 167,750

149,391 157,209

145,429 149,010

143,383 145,058

139,960 143,018

10-14 15-19

175,046 175,374

167,548 174,773

157,019 167,287

148,830 156,774

144,883 148,598

20-24 25-29

172,858 177,656

174,969 172,329

174,369 174,433

166,900 173,835

156,412 166,389

30-34 35-39

192,716 210,739

176,935 191,625

171,629 175,933

173,725 170,657

173,129 172,741

40-44 45-49

218,963 205,885

208,993 215,997

190,038 206, 163

174,476 187,464

169,244 172,113

50-54 55-59

181,516 202,638

201,319 175,032

211,206 194,135

201,591 203,670

183,306 194,398

60-64 6.5-69

200,913 222,07.5

190,960 182,230

164,933 173,181

182,947 149,.561

191,933 16.5,914

70-74 7.5-79

191,080 122, 162

187,305 144,860

154,361 142,737

147,235 118,238

127,133 112,741

65,249 27,825

79,565 39,098

94,250 49,991

92,814 60,618

76,867 64,405

3,068,056

2,990,138

2,896,104

2,797,776

2,703,184

80-84 8.5 & Over

Total

22

TABLE 4 (Continued) Projected Tohl Popuhrtlon by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection 8)

2055

2060

2065

2070

0-4 5-9

134,259 139,603

127,914 133,917

122,795 127,588

119,229 122,482

10-14 15-19

142,846 144,657

139,435 142,623

133,755 139,217

127,434 133,547

20-24 25-29

148,254 155,933

144,323 147,800

142,294 143,882

138,895 141,858

30-34 35-39

165,713 172,148

155,300 164,775

147,199 154,420

143,297 146,365

40-44 45-49

171,311 166,952

180,722 168,991

163,410 178,261

153,141 161,197

50-54 55-59

168,296 176,766

163,249 162,291

165,243 157,424

174,282 159,347

60-64 65-69

183,196 174,064

166,580 166,140

152,939 151,071

148,352 138,700

70-74 75-79

141,057 97,329

147,986 108,011

141,249 113,317

128,438 108,158

73,262 59,300

63,232 55,604

70,190 49,827

73,638 43,317

2,614,946

2,538,893

2,454,081

2,361,677

Age Group

80-84 85 & Over

Total

23

TABLE 5 Projected Male Popula1"1on by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection 8)

2000

1980

1985

1990

1995

0-4 5-9

100,847 115,770

110,971 100,595

116,420 110,694

111, 119 116,129

101,040 110,841

1Q-14 15-19

120,857 148,236

115,585 120,482

110,454 115,319

110,539 110,273

115,966 110,340

2Q-24 25-29

152,832 129,407

147,465 151,884

119,916 146,639

114,915 119,400

100,012 114,524

3Q-34 35-39

107,368 68,882

128,578 106,488

151,094 127,678

145,994 150,172

118,875 145,103

4Q-44 45-49

66,497 54,756

67,987 64,968

105,221 66,532

126,363 103,243

148,775 124,278

50-54 55-59

48,322 36,989

52,478 44,997

62,343 49,098

64,084 58,602

99,774 60,502

60-64 65-69

29,795 23,737

32,942 24,858

40,133 27,747

44,115 34,121

53,000 37,820

7Q-74 75-79

15,429 7,857

17,356 9,728

18,313 10,993

20,774 11,847

25,925 13,698

2,891 1,288

4,369 1,288

5,521 1, 749

6,353 2,316

6,964 2,836

1,231,760

1,303,019

1,375,864

1,440,359

1,490,273

Age Group

8G-84 85 & Over

Total

24

Projected Male

TABLE 5 (Continued) by Age Group. 198G-2070

Popula~lon

(Projection 8)

Age Group

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Q-4 5-9

92,766 100,787

89,984 92,534

91,088 89,759

90,773 90,860

86,876 90,546

10-14 15-19

110,686 115,757

100,646 110,487

92,404 100,465

89,633 92,238

90,733 89,472

20-24 25-29

110,053 99,672

115,456 109,679

110,200 115,063

100,204 109,825

91,998 99,863

30-34 35-39

114,020 118,150

99,233 113,324

109,196 98,628

114,557 108,530

109,342 113,858

40-44 45-49

143,754 146,558

117,051 141,612

112,270 115,307

97.711 110,597

107.521 96,255

50-54 55-59

120,500 94,596

142,557 114,728

138,100 136,256

112,447 132,493

107,854 107,882

60-64 65-69

55,045 45,787

86,536 47,900

105,527 75,849

126,023 93,180

123,165 112,034

70-74 75-79

29,114 17,390

35,686 19,844

37,750 24,684

60,399 26,470

74,935 42,895

8,186 3,285

10,559 3,930

12,256 5,061

15,502 6,158

16,623 7,826

1,526,106

1,551, 746

1,569,863

1,577,600

1,569,678

80-84 85 & Over

Total

25

TABLE 5 (Continued) Projected Male Popula-tion by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection 8)

Age Group

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Q-4 5-9

81,424 86,659

77,177 81,220

75,132 76,984

74,074 74,944

72,306 73,889

10-14 15-19

90,419 90,560

86,538 90,256

81,106 86,382

76,876 80,960

74,839 76,738

20-24 25-29

89,239 91,685

90,325 88,936

90,021 90,018

86,157 89,715

80,750 85,864

30-34 35-39

99,424 108,675

91,282 98,818

88,545 90,725

89,622 88,005

89,320 89,075

4Q-44 45-49

112,799 105,919

107,664 111, 118

97,899 106,060

89,881 96,440

87,187 88,542

50-54 55-59

93,868 103,475

103,292 90,057

108,362 99,098

103,430 103,963

94,048 99,231

6Q-64 65-69

100,773 110,171

96,656 90,141

84,122 86,459

92,567 75,247

97,112 82,801

70-74 75-79

90,960 53,893

90,307 66,246

74,538 66,574

72,064 55,561

62,718 53,717

8Q-84 85 & Over

26,938 8,963

33,845 13,359

41,602 17,820

41,808 22,432

34,892 24,251

1, 545,844

1,507,237

1,461,447

1,413,746

1,367,280

Total

26

TABLE 5 (Continued) Projected Male Popula1"1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

Age Group

2055

2060

2065

2070

0-4 5-9

69,361 72,125

66,081 69, 188

63,437 65,916

61,595 63,278

10-14 15-19

73,786 74,704

72,024 73,653

69,091 71,894

65,824 68,967

20-24 25-29

76,538 80,475

74,510 76,278

73,462 74,257

71,707 73,212

30-34 35-39

85,486 88,775

80, 121 84,965

75,942 79,632

73,930 75,479

40-44 45-49

88,247 85,888

97,949 86,932

84,175 96,490

78,891 82,921

50-54 55-59

86,346 90,230

83,758 82,840

84,776 80,357

94,097 81,334

60-64 65-69

92,692 86,867

84,284 82,913

77,381 75,392

75,061 69,217

70-74 75-79

69,015 46,750

72,404 51,444

69,108 53,970

62,839 51,513

80-84 85 & Over

33,734 22,326

29,359 21,163

32,307 19,072

33,893 19,396

1, 323,345

1,289,866

1,246,659

1, 203, 154

Total

27

TABLE 6 Projected Fa.le Popula-tion by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection B)

Age Group

1980

1985

1990

1995

0-4 5-9

92,837 108,113

103,831 92,596

108,934 103,561

103,974 108,651

94,542 103,704

10-14 15-19

114,699 139, 184

107,951 114,481

92,503 107,811

103,457 92,383

108,542 103,323

20-24 25-29

143,360 124, 124

138,836 142,916

114,252 138,461

107,595 113,944

92,198 107,304

30-34 35-39

103,672 66,885

123,652 103, 123

142,387 123,009

137,949 141,647

113,522 137,232

40-44 45-49

64,978 52,489

66,337 64,094

102,329 65,461

122,123 101,091

140,627 120,645

50-54 55-59

44,814 34,395

51,271 43,093

62,652 49,410

64,099 60,528

99, 130 62,048

60-64 65-69

29,913 25,573

32,276 27,029

40,516 29,316

46,628 36,959

57,296 42,716

70-74 75-79

17,915 10,759

21,714 13,812

23, 107 16,859

25,238 18, 144

32,036 19,817

5, 144 3,331

7,104 3,815

9,250 4,916

11,290 6,378

12, 151 7, 954

1, 182,185

1,257,931

1,334, 734

1,402,078

1,454, 787

80-84 85 & Over

Total

28

2000

TABLE 6