Labour Force Projections for Singapore 1980 - 2070 9789814376129

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I5EA5 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies was established as an autonomous organization in May 1968. It is a regional research centre for scholars and other specialists concerned with modern Southeast Asia, particularly the multi-faceted problems of stability and security, economic development, and political and social change. The Institute is governed by a twenty-two-member Board of Trustees comprising nominees from the Singapore Government, the National University of Singapore, the various Chambers of Commerce, and professional and civic organizations. A ten-man Executive Committee oversees day-to-day operations; it is chaired by the Director, the Institute's chief academic and administrative officer. The responsibility for facts and opinions expressed in this publication rests exclusively with the author. and his interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of the Institute or its supporters.

LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS FOR SINGAPORE 1980-2070

by

Saw

Swee-Hock

Research Notes and Discussions Paper No. 47 INSTITUTE OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES 1984

Pub II shed by Institute of Southeast Asian Studies Heng Mul Keng Terrace Paslr Panjang 5 I ngapore 051 I All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted In any form or by any means, electronic, mechan I ca I , photocopyIng, recording or otherwise, wIthout the prIor permissIon of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. ~

1984 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies

ISSN 0129-8828 ISBN 9971-902-52-4

CONTENTS

Page

iv

LIST OF TABLES INTROOUCT ION

II

III

METHODOLOGY

2

Projection A Project i on B

3

FUTURE LABOUR FORCE

5

2

iii

LIST OF TABLES

Page Age-Specific Labour Force Participation Rates by Sex, l 980

4

2

Projected Labour Force, 1980-2070

6

3

Projected Total Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

7

4

5 6

7 8

Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

ll

Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

15

Projected Total Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

19

Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

23

Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

27

iv

I

INTRODUCTION

This monograph presents the detailed results of the computation of the labour force projections for Singapore by sex, quinary age group from age 10 to 80 and over, and by time-intervals of five years from 1980 to 2070. Two sets of projections have been prepared to provide figures for two alternative future courses of labour force trends, and they are designated as Projection A and Projection B. A description of the methodology utilized to prepare these labour force projections and a brief analysis of the results of the computation are also presented. The labour force projections serve to provide the prerequisite data for studying the size and age structure of the labour force in the future. An understanding of the future labour force will facilitate the formulation of appropriate labour policies to ensure the sustained growth of the Singapore economy in the context of the tight labour market situation prevailing indefinitely in the years ahead.

II

METHODOLOGY

The preparation of 1abour force projections enta i 1s two separate exercises, the first i nvo 1vi ng the construction of the population projections and the second the calculation of the future labour force by the application of the labour force participation rates to the computed population projections. The results of the work in the first stage, together with an account of the methodology used, have been published recently in Population Projections for Singapore, 1980-2070, Research Notes and D1 scuss 1ons Paper No. 39 (S1ngapore: Inst1tute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1983). What we need to do is to proceed to the second stage by app 1yi ng the age-specific labour force participation rates to the two sets of population projections by qui nary age-group a 1 ready prepared to give us the corresponding two sets of 1abour force projections. It should be noted that the computations are executed for each sex separately. In computing the two sets of labour force certain assumptions were adopted for Projection Projection B.

projections, A and for

PROJECTION A Migration It is assumed that the population and hence Singapore are not subjected to international words, during the who 1e period of projection have assumed that there will be no immigration

2

the labour force of migration. In other from 1980 to 2070 we and emigration.

Mortality It is assumed that the 1979-81 mortality level with a life expectancy at birth of 68.4 years for the males and 74.3 years for the fema 1es will improve over time to a 1ife expectancy of 72. 6 for the ma 1es by 2040 and a 1 i fe expectancy of 75. 2 by 2005 for the females.

Fertility It is assumed that the gross reproduction rate will rise from 0.841 in 1980 to 0.939 in 1985 and to 1.025 in 1990, after which it will remain constant at this replacement fertility level until 2070.

Participation Rates It is assumed that the age-specific labour force participation rates for each sex derived from the 1980 Census of Population will remain unchanged during the whole period of projection.

PROJECTION B Migration The assumption in respect of international migration is the same as that used in Projection A.

Mortality The assumption in respect of mort a 1 i ty is the same as that used in Projection A.

Fertility It is assumed that the gross reproduction rate will remain constant below the replacement fertility level at the 1980 rate of 0.841 throughout the whole period of projection. 3

Participation Rates The assumption regarding age-specific labour force rates is the same as that adopted for Projection A.

participation

The data pertaining to the 1980 base labour force classified by sex and quinary age group are obtained from the Population Census conducted in June 1980. The figures are given in Census of Population, Release No. 4, Economic Characteristics, pubTiS'Fi'ea' by the Department of Statistics, Singapore. The 1abour force or economically active population is defined to include those working during the reference week as we 11 as those not working during the reference week but actively looking for work during the week. The population c 1ass ifi ed by sex and qui nary age group and the labour force by sex and similar age grouping enumerated in the 1980 Population Census have been used to compute the agespecific labour force participation rates by sex. These rates used to compute the labour force projections are given in Table l. TABLE I

Age-Specific Labour Force Participation Rates by Sex, 1980

Age Group

10-14 i5-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & Over

Male

Female

1.642 47,490 93,351 97.227 97,941 98.027 97,618 95,723 89,568 70,69i 52,532 38,623 25,i34 i5,897 8.447

1,651 50,735 78,397 58,666 44,201 37. 132 33,156 26,466 20,43i 14,499 ii,303 9,479 6,2i8 3,4ii 1.298

4

III FUTURE LABOUR FORCE

The detailed results of the computation for Projection A and Projection B are presented in Tables 3 to 8, while a summary of According to Projection A the results are provided in Table 2. the labour force is expected to grow from l,ll5,958 in 1980 to 1, 384,396 in the year 2000 and to the peak of 1, 516,608 in 2015. Thereafter, a reversal takes place as it declines to 1,486,822 in 2030, after which it fluctuates only slightly around the 1.5 In abso 1 ute terms, the increase million 1eve 1 right up to 2070. in the labour force during the first five-year period 1980-85 will amount to 108,819, but this will shrink to 71,417 during The increase will remain 1985-90 and 45,850 during 1990-95. substantial up to 2010, followed by a further shrinkage to 21,884 during 201 0-15 and even a decrease during the next 3 five-year periods. The figures for Projection B also shown in Table 2 seem to reveal a completely different trend in the future labour force. The labour force is expected to grow from 1,115,958 in 1980 to the peak of 1,428,808 in 2010, after which it will decline The without fa i 1 unt i 1 it touches the 1ow of 989,609 in 2070. absolute increase will shrink consistently from 108,819 during 1980-85 to 15,987 during 2005-1 0, and for the rest of the period Projection B there will be a decrease instead of an increase. demonnstrates that if fertility persists below the replacement 1eve 1 the dec 1 i ne in the 1abour force will a 1 so accompany the decline in the population. This is not surprising be~ause labour force supply is essentially a function of the s1ze of .the Another point worth mentioning is that the detalled population. figures by quinary age group given in Tables 3 to 8 show that.an 1 ageing of the 1abour force wi 11 a 1so take place as the popul at on ages during the years ahead.

5

TABLE 2

Projected Labour Force, 1980-2070

Projection A

Year

Labour Force

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

, 115,958 ,224, 777 ,296,194 ,342,044 ,384,396 ,442,347 ,494, 724 ,516,608 ,508,285 ,492,298 ,486,822 ,496,464 ,509,312 ,512,963 , 508,071 ,503,081 ,504,072 ,506,457 ,508,241

Projection 8

Increase Number %

Labour Force

-

-

108,819 71,417 45,850 42,352 57,951 52,377 21,884 -8,323 -15,987 -5,476 9,642 12,848 3,651 -4,892 -4,990 991 2,385 I, 784

9. 75 5.83 3.54 3.16 4.19 3.63 1.46 -0.55 -1.06 -0.37 0.65 0.86 0.24 -0.32 -0.33 0.07 0.16 0.12

6

, 115,958 ,224, 777 ,296,194 ,341,844 ,377,819 ,412,821 ,428,808 ,415,012 ,376,150 ,328,769 ,284,240 ,246,343 I ,209,854 1,169,706 1,127,200 I ,085,887 I ,058,284 I ,023, 760 989,609

Increase Number

-

108,819 71 ,417 45,650 35,975 35,002 15,987 -13,796 -38,862 -47,381 -44,529 -37,897 -36,489 -40,148 -42,506 -41,313 -27,603 -34,524 -34,151

%

-

9.75 5.83 3.52 2.68 2. 54 1.13 -0.97 -2.75 -3.44 -3.35 -2.95 -2.93 -3.32 -3.63 -3.67 -2.54 -3.26 -3.34

TABLE 3 Projected Total Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

IQ-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

3,879 141,012 255,060 198,636 150,981

3,680 115,299 246,503 231,515 180,586

3,176 109,463 201,513 223,803 210,919

3,723 94,491 191,625 182,935 203,963

4,311 110,783 165,642 174,299 166,605

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

92,359 86,457 66,306 52,437 31,135

142,679 88,363 79,152 57,478 38,057

170,835 136,643 81,011 68,639 41,872

199,805 163,844 125,582 70,495 50,202

193,197 191,857 150,893 109,619 51,765

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

19,033 11,592 4,992 1,616 463

20,953 12,163 5,712 2,017 620

25,663 13,496 6,040 2,323 798

28,444 16,682 6,790 2,502 961

34,318 18,656 8,508 2,854 1,089

1,115,958

1,224,777

1,296, 194

1,342,044

1,384,396

Total

7

TABLE 3 (Continued) Projected Total Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection Al

Age Group

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

4,323 128,261 194,015 150,851 158,926

3,936 128,621 224,626 176,465 137,682

3,649 117,106 225,256 204,305 160,894

3,661 104,563 205,090 204,878 186,277

3,921 108,925 190,127 186,537 186,800

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

157,753 185,503 177,058 132,100 80,806

150,578 151,437 171,177 155,518 97,732

130,522 144,604 139,689 150,659 115,471

152,440 125,383 133,473 122,908 112,214

176,489 146,381 115,794 117,500 91,530

35,572 22,678 9,620 3,622 I ,259

55,790 23,633 II ,809 4,147 I ,573

67,764 37,252 12,407 5,147 I ,873

80,399 45,497 19,711 5,465 2,326

78,455 54,220 24,240 8,770 2,609

I ,442,347

I ,494, 724

I, 516,608

I ,508,285

I ,492,298

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

8

TABLE 3 (Continued) Projected Total Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

4, I 19 116,677 190,762 172,927 170,076

4,082 122,564 204,351 173,506 157,667

3,909 121 ,434 214,648 185,879 158,196

3,803 116,293 212,670 195,229 169,488

3,849 113,131 203,667 193,431 178,002

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

176,984 169,483 135,112 101,983 87,526

161,140 169,959 156,435 118,942 75,983

149,382 154,744 156,873 137,712 88,599

149,884 143,453 142,828 138,098 I 02,580

160,587 143,935 132,407 125,734 I 02,868

64,257 53,158 29,087 10,896 3,775

61,434 43,544 28,729 13,213 4,915

53,325 41,613 23,697 13, fBI 6,120

62,188 36,107 22,787 10,971 6,584

72,002 42,125 19,769 10,552 6,012

I ,486,822

1,494,464

1,509,312

I ,512,963

I ,508,071

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

9

TABLE 3 (Continued) Projected Total Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2055

2060

2065

2070

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

3,971 114,517 198,129 185,242 176,362

3,909 118,139 200,556 180,205 168,897

4,003 116,401 206,901 182,412 164,302

3,928 119,084 203,076 188,183 166,316

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

168,648 154,217 132,851 116,560 93,657

167,095 161,955 142,348 116,952 86,824

160,021 160,463 149,485 125,316 87,116

155,668 153,670 148,108 131,595 93,347

72,204 48,772 23,066 9,157 5,728

65,739 48,909 26,707 10,682 5,155

60,942 44,531 26,782 12,368 5,414

61,147 41,281 24,384 12,403 6,051

1,503,081

1,504,072

1,506,457

1,508,241

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

10

TABLE 4 Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

I ,985 70,397 142,670 125,818 105,157

I ,898 57,217 137,660 147,672 125,931

I ,649 54,765 Ill ,943 142,573 147,983

I ,918 47,620 107,274 116,089 142,988

2,221 55,381 93,362 Ill ,348 116,427

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

67,523 64,913 52,414 43,281 26,148

104,387 66,368 62,189 47,003 31,809

125,159 102,715 63,686 55,839 34,708

147,209 123,353 98,827 57,399 41,426

142,240 145,231 118,963 89,366 42,769

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

15,652 9,168 3,878 I ,249 353

17,305 9,601 4,362 I ,546 478

21,083 10,717 4,603 I, 748 614

23,174 13,179 5,221 I ,883 732

27,842 14,607 6,516 2,178 828

730,606

815,426

879,785

928,292

969,279

Total

11

TABLE 4 (Continued) Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 3Q-34

2,227 64,119 I08,579 96,908 Ill ,672

2,028 64,298 125,710 112,704 97,190

I ,880 58,542 126,062 130,484 113,032

I ,886 54,271 114,777 130,850 130,864

2,021 54,453 106,402 119,136 131,231

35-39 4D-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

115,819 140,330 140,290 107,929 66,871

Ill ,088 114,263 135,555 127,685 81,102

96,682 109,596 110,375 123,693 96,321

112,441 95,384 105,867 100,717 93,661

130,180 I 10,930 92,138 96,603 76,263

28,916 17,684 7,318 2,764 969

45,459 18,500 8,969 3,155 I ,224

55,435 29,395 9,488 3,924 I ,463

66,202 35,989 15,181 4,208 I ,830

64,701 43,271 18,834 6,819 2,065

1,012,395

I ,048,930

I ,066,272

I ,064,128

I ,055,047

6Q-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

12

TABLE 4 (Continued) Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2030

2035

2040

2,103 61,270

I ,959 58,134 119,018 124,687 119,105

I ,983 56,553 113,978 123,539 125,050

2045

2050

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

2,122 58,357 106,759 110,443 119,482

114,414

110,814 II 0, 764

2,014 60,705 120,125 118,759 Ill, 137

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

130,545 128,431 107' 156 84,076 73,148

I 18,858 128,791 124,062 97,780 63,662

110,185 117,261 124,409 113,206 74,039

r 10,556 I 08,705 113,271 113,523 85,720

r 18,482 109,071 I 05,006 I 03,359 85,960

52,938 42,551 22,862 8,567 3,033

50,775 34,815 22,698 10,531 3,987

44,191 33,393 18,734 10,583 5,019

51,394 29,063 18,113 8,833 5,426

59,502 33,800 15,764 8,539 4,996

I ,050,470

I ,055,324

I ,063, 760

1,067,507

I ,065, 582

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

13

TABLE 4 (Continued) Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2055

2060

2065

2070

ID-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

2,046 57,247 110,878 118,307 123,898

I ,951 59,060 112,238 115,089 118,652

2,062 56,324 115,793 116,500 115,423

2,024 59,530 II 0,429 120,190 116,840

35-39 4D-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

124,396 116,891 105,359 95,817 78,263

123,250 122,725 112,914 96,140 72,553

118,031 121,595 118,550 103,034 72,797

114,820 116,446 117,458 108,177 78,017

59,669 39,132 18,333 7,432 4,735

54,326 39,242 21,226 8,643 4,268

50,362 35,729 21,285 10,007 4,495

50,532 33,122 19,379 10,035 5,036

I ,062,403

I ,062,277

I ,061,987

I ,062,035

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

14

TABLE 5 Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

1980

1985

1990

10-14 15-19 2D-24 25-29 30-34

1,894 70,615 112,390 72,818 45,824

I, 782 58,082 108,843 83,843 54,655

35-39 4Q-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

24,836 21,544 13,892 9,156 4,987

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

1995

2000

1,527 54,698 89,570 81,230 62,936

1,805 46,871 84,351 66,846 60,975

2,090 55,402 72,280 62,951 50,178

38,292 21,995 16,963 10,475 6,248

45,676 33,928 17,325 12,800 7,164

52,596 40,491 26,755 13,096 8,776

50,957 46,626 31,930 20,253 8,996

3,381 2,424 1,114 367 110

3,648 2,562 1,350 471 142

4,580 2, 779 1,437 575 184

5,270 3,503 1,569 619 229

6,476 4,049 1,992 676 261

385,352

409,351

416,409

413,752

415,117

15

TABLE 5 (Continued) Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, i980-2070 (Projection Al

Age Group

2005

2010

20i5

2020

2025

i0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

2,096 64,142 85,436 53,943 47,254

I ,908 64,323 98,916 63,761 40,492

I, 769 58,564 99,194 73,821 47,862

1,775 54,292 90,313 74,028 55,413

I ,900 54,472 83,725 67,401 55,569

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

41,934 45,173 36,768 24,171 13,935

39,490 37,174 35,622 27,833 16,630

33,840 35,008 29,314 26,966 19,150

39,999 29,999 27,606 22,191 18,553

46,309 35,451 23,656 20,897 15,267

6,656 4,994 2,302 858 290

10,331 5,133 2,840 992 349

12,329 7,967 2,919 I ,223 410

14,197 9,508 4,530 1,257 496

13,754 10,949 5,406 1,951 544

429,952

445,794

450,336

444,157

437,251

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

16

TABLE 5 (Continued) Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection A)

Age Group

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

1,997 58,320 84,003 62,484 50,594

1,979 61,294 89,937 62,692 46,903

1,895 60,729 94,523 67,120 47,059

1,844 58,159 93,652 70,542 50,383

1,866 56,578 89,689 69,892 52,952

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

46,439 41,052 27,956 17,907 14,378

42,282 41,168 32,373 21,162 12,321

39,197 37,483 32,464 24,506 14,560

39,328 34,748 29,557 24,575 16,860

42,105 34,864 27,401 22,375 16,908

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

II ,319 10,607 6,225 2,329 742

I 0,659 8,729 6,031 2,682 928

9,134 8,220 4,963 2,598 t, tOt

10,794 7,044 4,674 2,138 t. t 58

12,500 8,325 4,005 2,013 t ,Ot6

436,352

441,140

445,552

445,456

442,489

Total

17

TABLE 5 (Continued) Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection Al

Age Group

2055

2060

2065

2070

IO-i4 I 5-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

i,925 57,270 87,251 66,935 52,464

1,958 59,079 88,318 65, I 16 50,245

i,94i 60,077 91,108 65,912 48,879

i,904 59,554 92,647 67,993 49,476

35-39 4D-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

44,252 37,326 27,492 20,743 15,394

43,845 39,230 29,434 20,812 14,27 I

41,990 38,868 30,935 22,282 14,319

40,848 37,224 30,650 23,418 15,330

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

12,535 9,640 4,733 1,725 993

11,413 9,667 5,48i 2,039 887

10,580 8,802 5,497 2,36i 919

10,6i5 8,159 5,005 2,368 I ,015

440,678

441.795

444,470

446,206

Total

18

TABLE 6 Projected Total Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection Bl

Age Group

1980

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

3,879 141,012 255,060 198,636 150,981

3,680 115,299 246,503 231,515 180,586

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

92,359 86,457 66,306 52,437 31,135

6D-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

1985

1995

2000

3,176 109,463 201,513 223,803 210,919

3,523 94,491 191,625 182,935 203,963

3,696 104,821 165,642 174,299 166,605

142,679 88,363 79,152 57,478 38,057

170,835 136,643 81 ,Oil 68,639 41,872

199,805 163,844 125,582 70,495 50,202

193,197 191,857 150,893 109,619 51,765

19,033 II ,592 4,992 I ,616 463

20,953 12,163 5,712 2,017 620

25,663 13,496 6,040 2,323 798

28,444 16,682 6, 790 2,502 961

34,318 18,656 8,508 2,854 I ,089

1,115,958

I ,224, 777

I ,296,194

I ,341 ,844

I ,377,819

19

1990

TABLE 6 (Continued) Projected Total Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection 8)

Age Group

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

3,527 109,970 183,576 150,851 158,926

3,208 104,963 192,592 166,969 137,682

2,945 95,442 183,824 175,168 152,235

2,857 87,627 167,150 167,194 159,711

2,892 84,999 153,462 152,028 152,440

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

157,753 185,503 177,058 132,100 80,806

150,578 151,437 171' 177 155,518 97,732

130,522 144,604 139,689 150,659 115,471

144,235 125,383 133,473 122,908 112,214

151,319 138,511 115,794 117,500 91,530

35,572 22,678 9,620 3,622 I ,259

55,790 23,633 II ,809 4,147 I ,573

67,764 37,262 12,407 5,147 I ,873

80,399 45,497 19,711 5,465 2,326

78,455 54,220 24,240 8, 770 2,609

I ,412,821

I ,428,808

1,415,012

I ,376,150

I ,328, 769

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

20

TABLE 6 (Continued) Projected Tot a I Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

Age Group

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

2,882 86,037 148,860 139,579 138,613

2, 758 85,743 150,677 135,393 127,262

2,585 82,070 150,162 137,045 123,446

2,450 76,912 143,728 136,577 124,951

2,385 72,901 134,698 130,724 124,525

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

144,429 145,312 127,846 I 01,983 87,526

131,329 138,696 134,122 112,545 75,983

120,574 126,117 128,017 118,070 83,832

116,959 115,788 116,405 112,695 87,949

118,385 112,317 I 06,873 102,473 83,945

64,257 53,158 29,087 10,896 3, 775

61,434 43,544 28,729 13,213 4,915

53,325 41,613 23,697 13,181 6,120

58,843 36,107 22,787 10,971 6,584

61,733 39,858 19,769 I 0,552 6,062

1,284,240

1,246,343

1,209,854

1,169,706

1,127,200

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

21

TABLE 6 (Continued) Projected Total Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

Age Group

2055

2060

2065

2070

IQ-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

2,352 70,967 127,672 122,511 119,187

2,296 69,970 124,287 116,122 Ill, 701

2,202 68,298 122,540 113,044 105,874

2,098 65,517 119,612 111,454 103,069

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

117,981 I I 3,686 103,669 94,081 76,331

112,924 123,060 104,932 91,261 70,080

105,831 108,441 I 14,005 92,372 67,979

100,311 101,630 100,091 100,664 68,807

58,923 41,816 2 I ,826 9,157 5,728

53,578 39,912 22,898 10,108 5,155

49,190 36,293 21 ,856 10,604 5,231

47,715 33,320 19,873 10,121 5,327

I ,085,887

I ,058,284

I ,023, 760

989,609

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

22

TABLE 7 Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

Age Group

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

I ,985 70,397 142,670 125,818 I 05,157

I ,898 57,217 137,660 147,672 125,931

1,649 54,765 Ill ,943 142,573 147,983

I ,815 47,620 107,274 116,089 142,988

1,904 52,400 93,362 111,348 116,427

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

67,523 64,913 52,414 43,281 26,148

104,387 66,368 62,189 47,003 31,809

125,159 102,715 63,686 55,839 34,708

147,209 123,353 98,827 57,399 41,426

142,240 145,231 118,963 89,366 42,769

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

15,652 9,168 3,878 1,249 353

17,305 9,601 4,362 1,546 478

21,083 10,717 4,603 I ,748 614

23,174 13,179 5,221 I ,883 732

27,842 14,607 6,516 2,178 828

730,606

815,426

879,785

928,189

965,981

Total

23

TABLE 7 (Continued) Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection 6)

Age Group

2005

20i0

2015

2020

2025

I 0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

i,8i7 54,973 102,736 96,908 111,672

1,653 52,470 107,779 106,638 97. 190

1,5i7 47, 7il I 02,873 iil,872 106,948

i,472 43,804 93,541 106,780 112,i98

i,490 42,490 85,881 97,094 107,09i

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

115,819 140,330 140,290 107,929 66,871

lii,088 114,263 135,555 127,685 81,102

96,682 i09,596 110,375 123,693 96,321

I 06,389 95,384 105,867 I 00,717 93,661

lli,6i2 104,960 92,i38 96,603 76,263

28,916 i7,684 7,318 2,764 969

45,459 18,500 8,969 3,155 1,224

55,435 29,295 9,488 3,924 1,463

66,202 35,989 15,181 4,208 1,830

64,701 43,271 18,834 6,819 2,065

996,996

1,012, 730

1,007,193

983,223

951,312

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

24

TABLE 7 (Continued) Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

Age Group

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

1,485 43,007 83,305 89,143 97,377

1,421 42,863 84,319 86,470 89,403

1,332 41,023 84,036 87,522 86,722

1,262 38,448 80,428 87,227 87.777

1,229 36,443 75,381 83,483 87,481

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

I 06,531 110,112 101,389 84,076 73,148

96,868 105,099 I 06,365 92,517 63,662

88,935 95,567 101,524 97,058 70,053

86,269 87,740 92,315 92,640 73,492

87,318 85, II 0 84,755 84,237 70,147

52,938 42,551 22,862 8,567 3,033

50,775 34,815 22,698 10,531 3,987

44,191 33,393 18,734 I 0,583 5,019

48,627 29,063 18,113 8,833 5,426

51,015 31,980 15,764 8,539 4,996

919,524

891,793

865,692

837,660

807,878

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

25

TABLE 7 (Continued) Projected Male Labour Force by Age Group, 198Q-2070 (Projection BJ

Age Group

2055

2060

2065

2070

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

1,212 35,476 71,449 78,243 83,726

1,183 34,978 69,556 74, 163 78,471

1,134 34,142 68,578 72,198 74,378

1,081 32,752 66,939 71,182 72,408

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

87,023 86,145 82,215 77,338 63,784

83,289 95,616 83,214 75,020 58,560

78,061 82,170 92,363 75,932 56,805

73,990 77,012 79,374 84,281 57,496

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

48,693 33,551 17,346 7,432 4,735

44,276 32,023 18,198 8,178 4,268

40,650 29,119 17,370 8,580 4,340

39,431 26,734 15,794 8,189 4,501

778,368

760,993

735,820

711,164

Total

26

TABLE 8 Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

Age Group

1980

1985

1990

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

I ,894 70,615 112,390 72,818 45,824

I, 782 58,082 108,843 83,843 54,655

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

24,836 21,544 13,892 9,156 4,987

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

1995

2000

I ,527 54,698 89,570 81,230 62,936

I, 708 46,871 84,351 66,846 60,975

I, 792 52,421 72,280 62,951 50,178

38,292 21,995 16,963 10,475 6,248

45,676 33,928 17,325 12,800 7,164

52,596 40,491 26,755 13,096 8, 776

50,957 46,626 31,930 20,253 8,996

3,381 2,424 I, 114 367 110

3,648 2,562 I ,350 471 142

4,580 2, 779 1,437 575 184

5,270 3,503 I ,569 619 229

6,476 4,049 I ,992 676 261

385,352

409,351

416,409

413,655

411 ,838

27

TABLE 8 (Continued) Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection Bl

Age Group

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

I, 710 54,997 80,840 53,943 47,254

1,555 52,493 84,813 60,331 40,492

1,428 47,731 80,951 63,296 45,287

1,385 43,823 73,609 60,414 47,513

1,402 42,509 67,581 54,934 45,349

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

41,934 45,173 36,768 24,171 13,935

39,490 37,174 35,622 27,833 16,630

33,840 35,008 29,314 26,966 19,150

37,846 29,999 27,606 22,191 18,553

39,707 33,551 23,656 20,897 15,267

6,656 4,994 2,302 858 290

10,331 5,133 2,840 992 349

12,329 7,967 2,919 1,223 410

14,197 9,508 4,530 1,257 496

13,754 10,949 5,406 1,951 544

415,825

416,078

407,819

392,927

377,457

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

Total

28

TABLE 8 (Continued) Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection 8)

Age Group

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

I ,397 43,030 65,555 50,436 41,236

I ,337 42,880 66,358 48,923 37,859

I ,253 41 ,047 66,i26 49,523 36,724

l,i88 38,464 63,300 49,350 37, 174

I, 156 36,458 59,317 47,241 37,044

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

37,898 35,200 26,457 17,907 14,378

34,461 33,597 27,757 20,028 12,321

31,639 30,550 26,493 21,012 13,779

30,690 28,048 24,090 20,055 14,457

31,067 27,207 22,118 18,236 13,798

6Q-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

II ,319 10,607 6,225 2,329 742

10,659 8,729 6,031 2,682 928

9,134 8,220 4,963 2,598 I, 101

10,216 7,044 4,674 2,138 I, 158

10,718 7,878 4,005 2,013 I ,066

364,716

354,550

344,162

332,046

319,322

Total

29

TABLE 8 (Continued) Projected Female Labour Force by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)

Age Group

2055

2060

2065

2070

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

I, 140 35,491 56,223 44,268 35,461

I, 113 34,992 54,731 41,959 33,230

1,068 34,156 53,962 40,846 31 ,496

I ,017 32,765 52,673 40,272 30,661

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

30,958 27,541 21,454 16,743 12,547

29,635 27,444 21,718 16,241 II ,520

27,770 26,271 21,642 16,440 II, 174

26,321 24,618 20,717 16,383 II ,311

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 & over

10,230 8,265 4,480 I, 725 993

9,302 7,889 4, 700 I ,930 887

8,540 7,174 4,486 2,024 891

8,284 6,586 4,079 I ,932 826

307,519

297,291

287,940

278,445

Total

30

THE AUTHOR SAW SWEE-HOCK is Professor of Statistics in the Department of He Economics and Statistics, National University of Singapore. is the author of Singapore Population in Transition (1970), Population Control for Zero Growth in Singapore (1980), The Securities Market in Singapore (1980), and Demographic Trends in Singapore (1982), and co-author of Youths in Singapore: Sexuality, Courtship and Family Values (1980). He is also the editor of Asean Economies in Transition (1980) and co-editor of Economic Problems and Prospects in the Asean Countries (1977), Investment Analysis in Singapore (1979), Singapore Towards the Year 2000 (1981), and Growth and Direction of Asean Trade (1982).