237 66 4MB
English Pages [626] Year 2012
7KH)XWXUHRI 3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7KH)XWXUHRI 3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
$3UHIDFHWRD1HZ7KHRU\ RI6DPHQHVV2WKHUQHVVDQG,GHQWLW\ %\
3HWHU%DRIX
&$0%5,'*(6&+2/$56 38%/,6+,1*
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ $3UHIDFHWRD1HZ7KHRU\RI6DPHQHVV2WKHUQHVVDQG,GHQWLW\ E\3HWHU%DRIX 7KLVERRNILUVWSXEOLVKHG &DPEULGJH6FKRODUV3XEOLVKLQJ %DFN&KDSPDQ6WUHHW1HZFDVWOHXSRQ7\QH1(;;8. %ULWLVK/LEUDU\&DWDORJXLQJLQ3XEOLFDWLRQ'DWD $FDWDORJXHUHFRUGIRUWKLVERRNLVDYDLODEOHIURPWKH%ULWLVK/LEUDU\ &RS\ULJKWE\3HWHU%DRIX
$OOULJKWVIRUWKLVERRNUHVHUYHG1RSDUWRIWKLVERRNPD\EHUHSURGXFHGVWRUHGLQDUHWULHYDOV\VWHP RUWUDQVPLWWHGLQDQ\IRUPRUE\DQ\PHDQVHOHFWURQLFPHFKDQLFDOSKRWRFRS\LQJUHFRUGLQJRU RWKHUZLVHZLWKRXWWKHSULRUSHUPLVVLRQRIWKHFRS\ULJKWRZQHU ,6%1 ,6%1
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 7R7KRVHLQWKH)XWXUH:RUOGEH\RQGWKH6DPHDQGWKH2WKHUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB %22.6$/62%IRU VHHG GLVSHUVDO@ PD\ NHHS VRPH VSHFLHV UDUH DQG ZLGHO\ VSDFHG DQG WKHVH VSHFLHV PD\ DOVR EH WKH EHVW FRPSHWLWRUV,IVRWKHVHVSHFLHVDUHPRVWOLNHO\WRIRUPGHQVHDJJUHJDWLRQV WKDWZRXOGUHGXFHGLYHUVLW\LQORFDODUHDV%XWGXHWRWKHLUUDULW\RUDEHOLHI WKDW UDUH VSHFLHV DUH QRW UHJXODWHG E\ GHQVLW\GHSHQGHQFH WKHVH VSHFLHV PD\EHWKHRQHVOHDVWOLNHO\WREHVWXGLHG7KLV PHDQVWKDWWKH IDLOXUHWR ILQG -DQ]HQ&RQQHOO HIIHFWV IRU ZKDW FRXOG EH KXQGUHGV RI WUHH VSHFLHV
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
GRHV QRW UHMHFW WKH K\SRWKHVLV´ EXW ³HFRORJLVWV DUH PLVVLQJ WKH IHZ NH\ VSHFLHVZKHUHLWGRHVDSSO\´:.P:&DUVRQ $QGVHFRQGO\DQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDOLV WKDWLWLVDOVRGLIILFXOWWRFRQILUPWKH-DQ]HQ&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVQRWMXVW WKDWLWLVXQIDOVLILDEOHDVLVWKHFDVHLQWKHILUVWFULWLFLVPDERYH )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³WKH-DQ]HQ&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVH[SODLQV GLYHUVLW\DWDFRPPXQLW\ZLGHVFDOHEXWPRVWVWXGLHVKDYHRQO\ORRNHGDW DVLQJOHVSHFLHVRUDORFDOL]HGUHJLRQ0RVWVWXGLHVGRQRWWHVWWKHGLYHUVLW\ SUHGLFWLRQ DQG GLG QRW GHWHUPLQH WKH FDXVHV IRU SDWWHUQV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK -DQ]HQ&RQQHOO HIIHFWV $V >-@ :ULJKW SRLQWHG RXW ILHOG PHDVXUHPHQWV RQO\ GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW QLFKH GLIIHUHQFHV -DQ]HQ&RQQHOO HIIHFWV DQG QHJDWLYH GHQVLW\ GHSHQGHQFH RFFXU ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU VSHFLHV FRH[LVWHQFH DQG SODQW GLYHUVLW\ UHPDLQ FRQMHFWXUDO ´ :. P : &DUVRQ
7KH6RFLHWDO$UJXPHQW 7KH WKLUG WKHRUHWLFDO DSSURDFK LV FDOOHG LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI EHWWHU ZRUGVWKHVRFLHWDODUJXPHQWZKLFKIRFXVHVUHODWLYHO\VSHDNLQJRIFRXUVH PRUH RQ WKH VRFLHWDO DVSHFWV RI PLJUDWLRQ HJ LQVWLWXWLRQDO DQG WHFKQRORJLFDOLVVXHV ,Q WKLV VHQVH WKH ZRUG ³VRFLHWDO´ LQ WKH WLWOH RI WKH DUJXPHQW LV VXJJHVWLYH EHFDXVH LW UHIHUV WR WKH VRFLHWDO DVSHFWV RI PLJUDWLRQ VR XQGHUVWRRG /LNH WKH PHQWDO DQG QDWXUDO DUJXPHQWV²WKH VRFLHWDO DUJXPHQW KDV GLIIHUHQWLVVXHVRIFRQFHUQDQGGLIIHUHQWGHIHQGHUVRIWKHDUJXPHQWRIIHU WKHLU RZQ GLVWLQFWLYH VWDQGV RQ WKH LVVXHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKHLU RZQ LQWHUHVWV )RULOOXVWUDWLRQFRQVLGHUWZRPDMRUYHUVLRQVRIWKHVRFLHWDODUJXPHQW QDPHO\ D HWKQLF SHUVHFXWLRQ DQG E VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ²WR EH VXPPDUL]HGLQZKDWIROORZVLQWKDWRUGHU (WKQLF3HUVHFXWLRQ 7KH ILUVW YHUVLRQ RI WKH VRFLHWDO DUJXPHQW KDV WR GR ZLWK ³HWKQLF SHUVHFXWLRQ´LQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH6DPHLQWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQ 7KHWHUP³HWKQLFSHUVHFXWLRQ´UHIHUVWR³SHUFHLYHGSHUVHFXWLRQEDVHG RQ HWKQLFLW\´ ZKLFK LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI PLJUDWLRQ FDQ UHVXOW LQ KDYLQJ GLIIHUHQWJURXSVNLFNHGRXWE\WKHDXWKRULWLHVRIWKHWHUULWRULHVZKHUHWKH\ XVHGWROLYH:.Q )RUH[DPSOH³WKHSHUVHFXWLRQRIHWKQLF*HUPDQVUHIHUVWRV\VWHPDWLF DFWLYLW\ DJDLQVW JURXSV RI HWKQLF *HUPDQV EDVHG RQ WKHLU HWKQLFLW\
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
+LVWRULFDOO\WKLVKDVEHHQGXHWR´WKHEHOLHIWKDW³WKH*HUPDQSRSXODWLRQ ZHUHFRQVLGHUHGZKHWKHUIDFWXDOO\RUQRWOLQNHGZLWK*HUPDQQDWLRQDOLVW UHJLPHVVXFKDVWKRVHRIWKH1D]LVRU.DLVHU:LOKHOP7KLVZDVWKHFDVHLQ WKH«SHUVHFXWLRQ RI *HUPDQV«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´²DQGRWKHUFDVHV LQFOXGH ³WKH IRUPHUO\ ODUJH *HUPDQVSHDNLQJ SRSXODWLRQV RI 5XVVLD (VWRQLD RU WKH 7UDQV\OYDQLDQ 6LHEHQEUJHQ *HUPDQ PLQRULW\ LQ 5XPDQLDDQGWKH%DONDQV´:.Q +RZHYHUIRUWKHFULWLFVWKLVVWXG\RIHWKQLFSHUVHFXWLRQLQWKHFRQWH[W RI PLJUDWLRQ KDV VRPH PDMRU SUREOHPV &RQVLGHU IRU LOOXVWUDWLRQ D IHZ H[DPSOHVEHORZ )LUVWO\ RQH PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKLV VWXG\ RI HWKQLF SHUVHFXWLRQ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI PLJUDWLRQ LV WKDW LW LV RIWHQ SDUWLDO ZKHQ GHDOLQJ ZLWK VLPLODU SUDFWLFHVDWKRPH )RULQVWDQFHPDQ\UHVHDUFKHUVLQWKH:HVWWHQGWRFDUU\RXWGLIIHUHQW VWXGLHV RI HWKQLF SHUVHFXWLRQ ZKLFK DUH RIWHQ VRIW LQ WRQH ZKHQ GHDOLQJ ZLWK VLPLODU RFFXUUHQFHV ZLWKLQ WKH :HVW OLNH WKH QRWRULRXV &KLQHVH ([FOXVLRQ $FW RI IRU WKH VXVSHQVLRQ RI &KLQHVH LPPLJUDWLRQ DQG WKH LQIDPRXV ([HFXWLYH 2UGHU RI IRU WKH -DSDQHVH $PHULFDQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQFDPSV LQWKH86:.R S (YHQ WRGD\ PDQ\ 86 KLVWRULDQV DYRLG WKH WHUP ³FRQFHQWUDWLRQ FDPS´EHFDXVHWKH\GRQRWZDQWWRDVVRFLDWHZLWK³WKH1D]LFRQFHQWUDWLRQ FDPSV´ VR ³PRVW KLVWRULDQV WXUQHG WR RWKHU WHUPV WR GHVFULEH -DSDQHVH LQWHUQPHQW´OLNHWKHVRIWHUWHUP³LQWHUQPHQWFDPS´RU³UHORFDWLRQFHQWHU´ LQVWHDG:.S $QG VHFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKLV VWXG\ RI HWKQLF SHUVHFXWLRQ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI PLJUDWLRQ LV WKDW LW PRUH OLNHO\ IRFXVHV RQ FDVHVLQFRXQWULHVRUUHJLRQVZKLFKWKHUHVHDUFKHUVGRQRWOLNH )RU LQVWDQFH WKH VHFWLRQ RQ ³HWKQLF SHUVHFXWLRQ´ LQ WKH :LNLSHGLD DUWLFOH RQ SHUVHFXWLRQ IRFXVHV PRUH RQ VRPH EDG FDVHV LQ FRXQWULHV RU UHJLRQV ZKLFK DUH QRW DOOLHV RI WKH :HVW WKDQ RQ FRPSDUDEOH FDVHV LQ :HVWHUQFRXQWULHVWKHPVHOYHV:.Q
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
6SDFH&RORQL]DWLRQ $QGWKHVHFRQGYHUVLRQRIWKHVRFLHWDODUJXPHQWKDVWRGRZLWK³VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ´LQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH2WKHUVLQWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQ 7KH WHUP ³VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ´ DOVR NQRZQ DV ³VSDFH VHWWOHPHQW´ ³VSDFH KXPDQL]DWLRQ´ ³VSDFH KDELWDWLRQ´ RU ³H[WUDWHUUHVWULDO FRORQL]DWLRQ´ UHIHUVWRWKHGUHDPRI³SHUPDQHQWKXPDQKDELWDWLRQRXWVLGH RI (DUWK $OWKRXJK K\SRWKHWLFDO DW WKH SUHVHQW WLPH WKHUH DUH PDQ\ SURSRVDOV DQG VSHFXODWLRQV DERXW WKH ILUVW VSDFH FRORQ\ ,W LV VHHQ DV D ORQJWHUPJRDORIVRPHQDWLRQDOVSDFHSURJUDPV´:.T 7RDFKLHYHWKLVYLVLRQLVQRWHDV\EHFDXVH³EXLOGLQJFRORQLHVLQVSDFH ZRXOGUHTXLUHDFFHVVWRZDWHUIRRGVSDFHSHRSOHFRQVWUXFWLRQPDWHULDOV HQHUJ\ WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQV OLIH VXSSRUW VLPXODWHG JUDYLW\ DQG UDGLDWLRQ SURWHFWLRQ ,W LV OLNHO\ WKH FRORQLHV ZRXOG EH ORFDWHG E\ SUR[LPLW\ WR VXFK UHVRXUFHV«3RWHQWLDO VLWHV IRU VSDFH FRORQLHV LQFOXGH WKH0RRQ0DUVDVWHURLGVDQGIUHHIORDWLQJVSDFHKDELWDWV´:.T 3HUKDSV ³WKH ILUVW NQRZQ ZRUN RQ VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ ZDV 7KH %ULFN 0RRQDZRUNRIILFWLRQSXEOLVKHGLQE\(GZDUG(YHUHWW+DOHDERXW DQ LQKDELWHG DUWLILFLDO VDWHOOLWH 7KH 5XVVLDQ VFKRROPDVWHU DQG SK\VLFLVW .RQVWDQWLQ 7VLRONRYVN\ IRUHVDZ HOHPHQWV RI WKH VSDFH FRPPXQLW\ LQ KLV ERRN %H\RQG 3ODQHW (DUWK ZULWWHQ DERXW ´ DQG WKHUH DUH RI FRXUVH PDQ\RWKHUV:.T +RZHYHU IRU WKH FULWLFV WKLV VWXG\ RI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ KDV VRPH PDMRUSUREOHPV&RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQDIHZH[DPSOHVEHORZ )LUVWO\RQHPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLVWKDWLW LVHDVLHUWRGUHDPWKDQWRGR )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³FRORQL]LQJVSDFHZRXOGUHTXLUHPDVVLYH DPRXQWV RI ILQDQFLDO SK\VLFDO DQG KXPDQ FDSLWDO GHYRWHG WR UHVHDUFK GHYHORSPHQW SURGXFWLRQ DQG GHSOR\PHQW´ DQG WKHUH LV DOVR ³WKH IUHH ULGHUSUREOHP&RQYLQFLQJWKHSXEOLFWRIXQGVXFKSURJUDPVZRXOGUHTXLUH DGGLWLRQDOVHOILQWHUHVWDUJXPHQWV,IWKHREMHFWLYHRIVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLV WRSURYLGHD EDFNXS LQFDVHHYHU\RQHRQ(DUWKLVNLOOHGWKHQZK\VKRXOG VRPHRQH RQ (DUWK SD\ IRU VRPHWKLQJ WKDW LV RQO\ XVHIXO DIWHU WKH\ DUH GHDG"7KLVDVVXPHVWKDWVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLVQRWZLGHO\DFNQRZOHGJHGDV DVXIILFLHQWO\YDOXDEOHVRFLDOJRDO¶:.T $QG VHFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ LV WKDW LW UDLVHV D ORW RI GHHS TXHVWLRQV ZKLFK QHHG WR EH DGGUHVVHG )RU LQVWDQFH WKHUH LV WKH FRQFHUQ ³DERXW FUHDWLQJ D FXOWXUH LQ ZKLFK KXPDQV DUH QR ORQJHU VHHQ DV KXPDQ EXW UDWKHU DV PDWHULDO DVVHWV 7KH LVVXHVRIKXPDQGLJQLW\ PRUDOLW\SKLORVRSK\FXOWXUHELRHWKLFVDQGWKH WKUHDWRI PHJDORPDQLDFOHDGHUVLQWKHVHQHZ VRFLHWLHV ZRXOGDOOKDYHWR
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
EHDGGUHVVHGLQRUGHUIRUVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQWRPHHWWKHSV\FKRORJLFDODQG VRFLDO QHHGV RI SHRSOH OLYLQJ LQ LVRODWHG FRORQLHV RU JHQHUDWLRQ VKLSV´ :.T
7KH&XOWXUDO$UJXPHQW 7KH IRXUWK WKHRUHWLFDO DSSURDFK LV FDOOHG LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI EHWWHU ZRUGV WKH FXOWXUDO DUJXPHQW ZKLFK IRFXVHV UHODWLYHO\ VSHDNLQJ RI FRXUVHPRUHRQWKHFXOWXUDODVSHFWVRIPLJUDWLRQHJLVVXHVLQUHODWLRQWR YDOXHVDQGEHOLHIV 7KHUHIRUH WKH ZRUG ³FXOWXUDO´ LQ WKH WLWOH RI WKH DUJXPHQW LV VXJJHVWLYH EHFDXVH LW UHIHUV WR WKH IRFXV RQ WKH FXOWXUDO DVSHFWV RI PLJUDWLRQVRXQGHUVWRRG /LNH WKH PHQWDO QDWXUDO DQG VRFLHWDO DUJXPHQWV²WKH FXOWXUDO DUJXPHQW KDV GLIIHUHQW LVVXHV RI FRQFHUQ DQG GLIIHUHQW GHIHQGHUV RI WKH DUJXPHQW RIIHU WKHLU RZQ GLVWLQFWLYH VWDQGV RQ WKH LVVXHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKHLURZQLQWHUHVWV )RULOOXVWUDWLRQFRQVLGHUWZRPDMRUYHUVLRQVRIWKHFXOWXUDODUJXPHQW QDPHO\D WKHPHOWLQJSRWDQGE WKHVDODGERZO²WREHVXPPDUL]HGLQ ZKDWIROORZVLQWKDWRUGHU 7KH0HOWLQJ3RW 7KHILUVWYHUVLRQRIWKHFXOWXUDODUJXPHQWKDVWRGRZLWK³WKHPHOWLQJ SRW´ IRU DVVLPLODWLRQLVP LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH 6DPH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ 7KH WHUP ³PHOWLQJ SRW´ IRU DVVLPLODWLRQLVP UHIHUV WR D PHWDSKRU ZKLFKKDGEHFRPHRYHUWLPHDQLGHRORJ\XVHGE\WKHHVWDEOLVKPHQW³IRUD KHWHURJHQHRXVVRFLHW\EHFRPLQJPRUHKRPRJHQHRXV´ZKHQ³WKHGLIIHUHQW HOHPHQWV PHOWLQJ WRJHWKHU LQWR D KDUPRQLRXV ZKROH ZLWK D FRPPRQ FXOWXUH,WLVSDUWLFXODUO\XVHGWRGHVFULEHWKHDVVLPLODWLRQRILPPLJUDQWVWR WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKHPHOWLQJWRJHWKHUPHWDSKRUZDVLQXVHE\WKHV´ :. %\ ³WKH HDUO\ WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\ WKH PHDQLQJ RI WKH UHFHQWO\ SRSXODUL]HG FRQFHSW RI WKH PHOWLQJ SRW ZDV VXEMHFW WR RQJRLQJ GHEDWH ZKLFK FHQWHUHG RQ WKH LVVXH RI LPPLJUDWLRQ 7KH GHEDWH VXUURXQGLQJ WKH FRQFHSW RI WKH PHOWLQJ SRW FHQWHUHG RQ KRZ LPPLJUDWLRQ LPSDFWHG $PHULFDQ VRFLHW\ DQG RQ KRZ LPPLJUDQWV VKRXOG EH DSSURDFKHG 7KH PHOWLQJ SRW ZDV HTXDWHG ZLWK HLWKHU WKH DFFXOWXUDWLRQ RU WKH WRWDO DVVLPLODWLRQ RI (XURSHDQ LPPLJUDQWV DQG WKH GHEDWH FHQWHUHG RQ WKH GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHVHWZRZD\VRIDSSURDFKLQJLPPLJUDWLRQ :DVWKH LGHD WR PHOW GRZQ WKH LPPLJUDQWV DQG WKHQ SRXU WKH UHVXOWLQJ IRUPOHVV
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
OLTXLG LQWR WKH SUHH[LVWLQJ FXOWXUDO DQG VRFLDO PROGV PRGHOHG RQ $QJOR 3URWHVWDQWVOLNH+HQU\)RUGDQG:RRGURZ:LOVRQRUZDVWKHLGHDLQVWHDG WKDW HYHU\RQH 0D\IORZHU GHVFHQGDQWV DQG 6LFLOLDQV $VKNHQD]L DQG 6ORYDNV ZRXOG DFW FKHPLFDOO\ XSRQ HDFK RWKHU VR WKDW DOO ZRXOG EH FKDQJHGDQGDQHZFRPSRXQGZRXOGHPHUJH" ´:. +RZHYHUIRUWKHFULWLFVWKHYHU\LGHDRI³WKHPHOWLQJSRW´KDVVRPH PDMRUSUREOHPV&RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQDIHZH[DPSOHVEHORZ )LUVWO\RQHPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHYHU\LGHDRI³WKHPHOWLQJSRW´LVWKDW LWLVRQO\PHDQWIRUWKRVHZKRDUHZKLWHV )RU LQVWDQFH ³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´:.7$UFKGHDFRQ $QGVHFRQGO\DQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHYHU\LGHDRI³WKHPHOWLQJ SRW´LVWKDWLWLVRSSUHVVLYH )RU LQVWDQFH ³DIWHU WKH GHVLUDELOLW\ RI DVVLPLODWLRQ DQG WKH PHOWLQJSRWPRGHOZDVFKDOOHQJHGE\SURSRQHQWVRIPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPZKR DVVHUW WKDW FXOWXUDO GLIIHUHQFHV ZLWKLQ VRFLHW\ DUH YDOXDEOH DQG VKRXOG EH SUHVHUYHG SURSRVLQJ WKH DOWHUQDWLYH PHWDSKRU RI WKH PRVDLF RU VDODG ERZO²GLIIHUHQWFXOWXUHVPL[EXWUHPDLQGLVWLQFW´:. 7KH6DODG%RZO $QGWKHVHFRQGYHUVLRQRIWKHFXOWXUDODUJXPHQWKDVWRGR ZLWK ³WKH VDODGERZO´IRUPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP LQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH2WKHUVLQWKHVWXG\ RIPLJUDWLRQ 7KH WHUP ³VDODG ERZO´ IRU PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP UHIHUV WR WKH RSSRVLQJ LGHRORJ\ WKDW ³WKH LQWHJUDWLRQ RI WKH PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW FXOWXUHV RI 8QLWHG 6WDWHV UHVLGHQWV FRPELQH OLNH D VDODG DV RSSRVHG WR WKH PRUH WUDGLWLRQDO QRWLRQRIDFXOWXUDOPHOWLQJSRW,Q&DQDGDWKLVFRQFHSWLVPRUHFRPPRQO\ NQRZQDVWKHFXOWXUDOPRVDLF,QWKHVDODGERZOPRGHOYDULRXV$PHULFDQ FXOWXUHV DUH MX[WDSRVHG²OLNH VDODG LQJUHGLHQWV²EXW GR QRW PHUJH LQWR D VLQJOHKRPRJHQHRXVFXOWXUH(DFKFXOWXUHNHHSVLWVRZQGLVWLQFWTXDOLWLHV 7KLV LGHD SURSRVHV D VRFLHW\ RI PDQ\ LQGLYLGXDO SXUH FXOWXUHV DQG WKH WHUPKDVEHFRPHPRUHSROLWLFDOO\FRUUHFWWKDQPHOWLQJSRWVLQFHWKHODWWHU
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
VXJJHVWVWKDWHWKQLFJURXSVPD\EHXQDEOHWRSUHVHUYHWKHLUFXOWXUHVGXHWR DVVLPLODWLRQ´:.U +RZHYHUIRUWKHFULWLFVWKHRSSRVLQJLGHDRIWKHVDODGERZOKDVVRPH PDMRUSUREOHPV&RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQDIHZH[DPSOHVEHORZ )LUVWO\ RQH PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH RSSRVLQJ LGHD RI WKH VDODG ERZO LV WKDWLWVLPSOHPHQWDWLRQFDQHQGXSGHVWUR\LQJVRFLDOWUXVW )RU LQVWDQFH ³+DUYDUG SURIHVVRU RI SROLWLFDO VFLHQFH 5REHUW ' 3XWQDP >@ FRQGXFWHG D QHDUO\ GHFDGH ORQJ VWXG\ KRZ PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP DIIHFWV VRFLDO WUXVW +H VXUYH\HG SHRSOH LQ $PHULFDQFRPPXQLWLHVILQGLQJWKDWZKHQWKHGDWDZHUHDGMXVWHGIRUFODVV LQFRPH DQG RWKHU IDFWRUV WKH PRUH UDFLDOO\ GLYHUVH D FRPPXQLW\ LV WKH JUHDWHU WKH ORVV RI WUXVW 3HRSOH LQ GLYHUVH FRPPXQLWLHV GRQ¶W WUXVW WKH ORFDOPD\RUWKH\GRQ¶WWUXVWWKHORFDOSDSHUWKH\GRQ¶WWUXVWRWKHUSHRSOH DQG WKH\ GRQ¶W WUXVW LQVWLWXWLRQV ZULWHV 3XWQDP´ :. V 6 6DLOHU $QG VHFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH RSSRVLQJ LGHD RI WKH VDODGERZOLVWKDWLWLVQRWFRQGXFLYHWRVRFLRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW )RULQVWDQFH)UDQN6DOWHU DUJXHGWKDW³UHODWLYHO\KRPRJHQHRXV VRFLHWLHV LQYHVW PRUH LQ SXEOLF JRRGV LQGLFDWLQJ D KLJKHU OHYHO RI SXEOLF DOWUXLVP )RU H[DPSOH WKH GHJUHH RI HWKQLF KRPRJHQHLW\ FRUUHODWHV ZLWK WKH JRYHUQPHQW V VKDUH RI JURVV GRPHVWLF SURGXFW DV ZHOO DV WKH DYHUDJH ZHDOWK RI FLWL]HQV &DVH VWXGLHV RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV $IULFD DQG 6RXWK (DVW$VLDILQGWKDW PXOWLHWKQLFVRFLHWLHVDUHOHVVFKDULWDEOHDQGOHVVDEOH WR FRRSHUDWH WR GHYHORS SXEOLF LQIUDVWUXFWXUH 0RVFRZ EHJJDUV UHFHLYH PRUH JLIWV IURP IHOORZHWKQLFVWKDQ IURPRWKHUHWKQLHV«$UHFHQW PXOWL FLW\ VWXG\ RI PXQLFLSDO VSHQGLQJ RQ SXEOLF JRRGV LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV IRXQG WKDW HWKQLFDOO\ RU UDFLDOO\ GLYHUVH FLWLHV VSHQG D VPDOOHU SRUWLRQ RI WKHLU EXGJHWV DQG OHVV SHU FDSLWD RQ SXEOLF VHUYLFHV WKDQ GR WKH PRUH KRPRJHQRXVFLWLHV´:.V
7KH&\FOLFDO3URJUHVVLYH$UJXPHQW $QGILIWKO\XQOLNHWKHSUHYLRXVIRXUDUJXPHQWVYL]WKHPHQWDOWKH QDWXUDOWKHVRFLHWDODQGWKHFXOWXUDO ²WKHILIWKRQHWREHLQWURGXFHGKHUH FDQ EH FDOOHG LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI EHWWHU ZRUGV DJDLQ WKH F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLYH DUJXPHQW ZKLFK OHDUQV IURPDOORWKHU WKHRUHWLFDODSSURDFKHV ZKLFK LQFOXGH WKH SUHYLRXV IRXU DUJXPHQWV DQG DOVR RWKHU H[DPSOHV DV ZLOOEHLQWURGXFHGLQWKHUHVWRIWKLVERRN ZLWKRXWKRZHYHUIDYRULQJDQ\ RI WKHP QRU WU\LQJ WR LQWHJUDWH WKHP DV WKH\ DUH QRW QHFHVVDULO\ FRPSDWLEOHZLWKHDFKRWKHUDVWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKHWKHRUHWLFDOGHEDWHLQ WKHSUHYLRXVVXEVHFWLRQVKDVVKRZQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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²HVSHFLDOO\ IURP WKH PRVW FRPSUHKHQVLYH FRPELQHG SHUVSHFWLYHVRIWKHPLQGQDWXUHVRFLHW\DQGFXOWXUHDVZLOOEHGHDOWZLWK LQ&KDSWHU7ZRDQG&KDSWHU7KUHH 6HFRQGO\MXVWOLNHPDQ\RWKHUWKHRULHVRIPLQHLQP\SUHYLRXVERRNV P\ WKHRU\ KHUHGRHV QRWKHDYLO\ IDYRUDQ\VSHFLILFWKHRU\RYHURWKHUVLQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH QRU WU\LQJ WR LQWHJUDWH WKHP DV WKH\ DUH QRW QHFHVVDULO\ FRPSDWLEOHZLWKHDFKRWKHU 7KLUGO\ P\ WKHRU\ WUHDWV WKH LVVXH RI PLJUDWLRQ LQ WKH GLVWLQFWLYH GLDOHFWLFFRQWH[WRIQR6DPHQHVVZLWKRXW2WKHUQHVVDQGYLFHYHUVD $QG IRXUWKO\ LW FRQWDLQV WZHQW\ILYH PDMRU WKHVHV QDPHO\ D WKH ILUVW WKHVLV WKH IRUPDOQHVVLQIRUPDOQHVV SULQFLSOH E WKH VHFRQG WKHVLV WKH DEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVV SULQFLSOH F WKH WKLUG WKHVLV WKH SDUWLDOLW\ WRWDOLW\ SULQFLSOH G WKH IRXUWK WKHVLV WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ SULQFLSOHH WKHILIWKWKHVLVWKHH[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\SULQFLSOHI WKH VL[WK WKHVLV WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH J WKH VHYHQWK WKHVLV WKH ILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH K WKH HLJKWK WKHVLV WKH SUHFLVHQHVV YDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH L WKH QLQWK WKHVLV WKH VLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV SULQFLSOH M WKH WHQWK WKHVLV WKH RSHQQHVVKLGGHQQHVV SULQFLSOH N WKH HOHYHQWK WKHVLV WKH GHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVV SULQFLSOH O WKH WZHOIWK WKHVLV WKH FKDQJHFRQVWDQF\ SULQFLSOH P WKH WKLUWHHQWK WKHVLV WKH RUGHUFKDRV SULQFLSOH Q WKH IRXUWHHQWK WKHVLV WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH R WKH ILIWHHQWK WKHVLV WKH H[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH S WKH VL[WHHQWK WKHVLV WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH T WKH VHYHQWHHQWK WKHVLV WKH FRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\ SULQFLSOH U WKH HLJKWHHQWK WKHVLV WKH HYROXWLRQ WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH V WKH QLQHWHHQWK WKHVLV WKH V\PPHWU\ DV\PPHWU\ SULQFLSOH W WKH WZHQWLHWK WKHVLV WKH VRIWQHVVKDUGQHVV SULQFLSOHX WKHWZHQW\ILUVWWKHVLVWKHVHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVVSULQFLSOH Y WKHWZHQW\VHFRQGWKHVLVWKHUHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQSULQFLSOHZ WKH WZHQW\WKLUG WKHVLV WKH VDPHQHVVGLIIHUHQFH SULQFLSOH [ WKH WZHQW\
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
IRXUWK WKHVLV WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH DQG \ WKH WZHQW\ILIWK WKHVLV WKH SRVWKXPDQ F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ²WR EH DGGUHVVHG LQ &KDSWHU )RXU %HFDXVH RI WKH ODVW WKHVLV RQ ³WKH SRVWKXPDQ F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ´ WKH ZRUGV ³F\FOLFDOSURJUHVVLRQ´LQWKHWLWOHRI P\ WKHRU\ DUHVXJJHVWLYH EHFDXVH WKH\ UHIHU WR WKH GLDOHFWLF UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ UHJUHVVLRQ DQG SURJUHVVLRQ LQ KLVWRU\ ZKLFK ZHUH DGGUHVVHG LQ WKUHH RI P\ SUHYLRXV WKHRULHVDVRI'HFHPEHU DVVKRZQEHORZDQGZLOOEHLQWURGXFHG LQ6HF 7KHRU\RIWKH&\FOLFDO3URJUHVVLRQRI(PSLUH%XLOGLQJLQ%:7 ²DW WKHVRFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQDOOHYHOVHH7DEOH 7KHRU\RIWKH&\FOLFDO3URJUHVVLRQRI+HJHPRQ\LQ)&')3+&DQG %'3' ²DWWKHVRFLDOVWUXFWXUDOOHYHOVHH7DEOH 7KHRU\RIWKH&\FOLFDO3URJUHVVLRQRI6\VWHP,QWHJUDWLRQDQG )UDJPHQWDWLRQLQ)&' ²DWWKHVRFLDOV\VWHPLFOHYHOVHH6HF 6XUHO\WKHVHWKUHHWKHRULHVFDQRYHUODSDELWZLWKHDFKRWKHUIRUH[DPSOH WKH WKHRU\ RI WKH F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ RI HPSLUHEXLOGLQJ FDQ DOVR EH XQGHUVWRRGDWWKHVRFLDOVWUXFWXUDOOHYHOQRWMXVWDWWKHVRFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQDO OHYHODVVKRZQLQ7DEOH ,Q WKH FXUUHQW FRQWH[W RI WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ WKH WKHRU\ RI WKH F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ RI PLJUDWLRQ LV PRUH FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH LVVXH RI LGHQWLW\ DW WKH FXOWXUDO OHYHO OLNH WKH WKHRUHWLFDO RSSRVLWLRQ EHWZHHQ DVVLPLODWLRQLVP IRU WKH PHOWLQJ SRW DQG PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP IRU WKH VDODG ERZO DVDOUHDG\VXPPDUL]HGLQ6HF 6HF²DOWKRXJKLWFDQDOVR EH XQGHUVWRRG DW WKH VRFLDOV\VWHPLF OHYHO IRU WKH VWXG\ RI XUEDQL]DWLRQ VXEXUEDQL]DWLRQDQGJOREDOL]DWLRQIRULQVWDQFH )RU WKLV UHDVRQ WKH VXEWLWOH RI WKLV ERRN LV DERXW 6DPHQHVV 2WKHUQHVV DQG ,GHQWLW\²VR WKLV ERRN LV UHODWHG WR WKH GHEDWH EHWZHHQ ³XQLFLYLOL]DWLRQLVP´ DQG ³PXOWLFLYLOL]DWLRQLVP´ DV DOUHDG\ DQDO\]HG LQ P\RWKHUERRNWLWOHG7KH)XWXUHRI+XPDQ&LYLOL]DWLRQ :LWK WKLV EDFNJURXQG LQIR LQ PLQG ³WKH SRVWKXPDQ F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ´LQWKHFXUUHQWFRQWH[WRIWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQLVWRH[SORUH PXOWLSOHYLHZVOLNHWKHGLDOHFWLFLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQDVVLPLODWLRQLVPDQG PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH 6DPH DQG WKH 2WKHUV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ WRJHWKHU ZLWK RWKHU GHEDWHV DV ZLOO EH GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH UHVW RI WKH ERRN DQG FDOOV IRU D QHHG WR WUDQVFHQG WKHP E\ IXWXUH DGYDQFHG KXPDQVDQGODWHUSRVWKXPDQVLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHJUHDWWUDQVIRUPDWLRQV RI PLJUDWLRQ LQ WKH IXWXUH ZRUOG DV ZLOO EH GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH FRQFOXGLQJ FKDSWHU&KDSWHU)RXU
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
:LWK WKLV FODULILFDWLRQ LQ PLQG²WKH VHPLQDO SURMHFW KHUH LI VXFFHVVIXO ZLOO IXQGDPHQWDOO\ FKDQJH WKH ZD\ WKDW ZH WKLQN DERXW DVVLPLODWLRQLVP DQG PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH 6DPH DQG WKH 2WKHUV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ WRJHWKHU ZLWK RWKHU GHEDWHV DV ZLOO EH GLVFXVVHGLQWKHUHVWRIWKHERRN IURPWKHFRPELQHGSHUVSHFWLYHVRIWKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\ DQG FXOWXUH ZLWK HQRUPRXV LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU WKH KXPDQIXWXUHDQGZKDW,RULJLQDOO\FDOOHGLWV³SRVWKXPDQ´IDWH
7KHRU\DQG0HWD7KHRU\ 7KH F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLYH DUJXPHQW RU WKH WKHRU\ RI WKH F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ RI PLJUDWLRQ SUHVXSSRVHV VRPH NLQG RI PHWDWKHRU\ LQ VSHFLDO UHODWLRQ WR PHWKRGRORJ\ DQG RQWRORJ\²MXVW DV DOO WKHRULHV HLWKHU H[SOLFLWO\RULPSOLFLWO\UHTXLUHWKHLURZQYHUVLRQVRIPHWDWKHRU\
0HWD7KHRU\ $VVRRIWHQFODULILHGLQP\SUHYLRXVERRNV²WKHRU\DQGPHWDWKHRU\ EURDGO\ VSHDNLQJ FDQ EH IXUWKHU FODVVLILHG LQWR GLIIHUHQW FDWHJRULHV DV VKRZQEHORZ 2Q7KHRU\ ²([LQUHODWLRQWRWKHPLQG ²([LQUHODWLRQWRQDWXUH ²([LQUHODWLRQWRVRFLHW\ ²([LQUHODWLRQWRFXOWXUH 2Q0HWD7KHRU\ ²([LQUHODWLRQWRPHWKRGRORJ\ ²([LQUHODWLRQWRRQWRORJ\ (DFK FDWHJRU\ LQ LWV WXUQ FDQ WKHQ EH IXUWKHU VXEGLYLGHG LQWR GLIIHUHQW OHYHOVRIDQDO\VLV²ZKLFKZLOOEHHODERUDWHGLQWKHQH[WWZRVHFWLRQVDQG VXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH :LWK WKLV UHPLQGHU LQ PLQG , DOUHDG\ SURSRVHG LQ P\ SUHYLRXV ERRNV P\ GLVWLQFWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR PHWDWKHRU\ QDPHO\ PHWKRGRORJ\ OLNH ³WKHRU\ RI PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP´ ³FRPSOH[ WKHRU\ RI GDWD DQDO\VLV´ DQG ³FULWLFDOGLDOHFWLF WKHRU\ RI IRUPDO VFLHQFH´ IRU LQVWDQFH DQG RQWRORJ\ OLNH ³WKHRU\ RI H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV´ DQG ³FRQWUDVWLYH WKHRU\RIUDWLRQDOLW\´IRULQVWDQFH
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7KH QH[W WZR VHFWLRQV DUH WR LQWURGXFH P\ PHWDWKHRU\²HVSHFLDOO\ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV DQG VRSKLVWLFDWHG PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP UHVSHFWLYHO\²WR EH UHSHDWHG RIWHQ YHUEDWLP ZLWK RQO\ D IHZ XSGDWHG UHYLVLRQV IURPP\SUHYLRXVZRUNVDVWKLVLVVRPHWKLQJWKDW,RIWHQGRLQ HDFK QHZ ERRN RI PLQH DV DQ LQWURGXFWLRQ WR VRPH EDFNJURXQG LQIRUPDWLRQIRUWKHFRQYHQLHQFHRIWKHUHDGHUV ,QWKHSURFHVV,VKDOODOVRLQWURGXFHP\QXPHURXVQHZWKHRULHVRUWR EHH[DFWRIWKHPLQERRNVVRIDUDVRI'HFHPEHU LQUHODWLRQ WR WKH IRXU FDWHJRULHV RI WKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\ DQG FXOWXUH LQ WKH FRQWH[WRIWKHRU\DVDOVRVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH
$8QLILHG7KHRU\RI(YHU\WKLQJ ,QWKHHQGP\GLVWLQFWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQWRERWKPHWDWKHRU\DQGWKHRU\ VHUYHVDVDIRXQGDWLRQWRXQLI\DOOGRPDLQVRINQRZOHGJHLHWKHVRFLDO VFLHQFHVWKHIRUPDOVFLHQFHVWKHQDWXUDOVFLHQFHVDQGWKHKXPDQLWLHV IRU DQ RYHUDUFKLQJ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI DOO IRUPV RI UHDOLW\ E\ ZD\ RI VRPH RQWRORJLFDOSULQFLSOHVDWWKHPHWDWKHRUHWLFDOOHYHODQGWKHFRPSUHKHQVLYH SHUVSHFWLYHV RI WKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\ DQG FXOWXUH DW WKH WKHRUHWLFDO OHYHO²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³XQLILHG´GRHVQRWKDYHWRPHDQDQLQWHJUDWLYH DSSURDFKLQDQDUURZVHQVHQRUDV\VWHPVDSSURDFKLQDEURDGRQHERWK RIZKLFK,KDYHFULWLFDOO\UHEXNHGLQP\SUHYLRXVERRNV ZKLOHOHDUQLQJ IURPWKHP 7KLVRYHUDUFKLQJSURMHFWFRQVLVWLQJRIQXPHURXVWKHRULHVRIPLQHDV ZLOOEHVXPPDUL]HGLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQ WKXVFRQVWLWXWHVP\JUDQGXQLIHG WKHRU\RIHYHU\WKLQJLQWKHZRUOGDQGEH\RQG
7KH/RJLFRI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV 7RVWDUWWKH RQWRORJ\ RI H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV FDQ EH VXPPDUL]HG LQ WKLVVHFWLRQ²RIWHQYHUEDWLPZLWKRQO\DIHZXSGDWHGUHYLVLRQV IURPP\
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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²DJDLQ RIWHQ YHUEDWLP 7KLVPHDQVWKDWIRUWKRVHUHDGHUVZKRKDGUHDGVRPHRIP\SUHYLRXV ERRNVWKHVXPPDU\EHORZLVUHDOO\QRWPXFKQHZDOPRVWYHUEDWLPZLWK RQO\VRPHXSGDWHGUHYLVLRQV %XW IRU WKRVH ZKR KDYH QHYHU UHDG P\ SUHYLRXV ERRNV LW LV D JRRG UHYLHZRIWKHP
7KH&RQFHSWLRQRI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFVRU,WV2QWLFV 7KLVRQWRORJ\ ZDVRULJLQDOO\ GHVLJQDWHGDV ³H[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFV´LQ %H\RQG &DSLWDOLVP WR 3RVW&DSLWDOLVP KHUHLQ DEEUHYLDWHG DV %&3& DOWKRXJKLWZDVDOUHDG\DQDO\]HGLQRWKHUERRNVRIPLQHOLNHWKHYROXPHV RI7KH)XWXUHRI+XPDQ&LYLOL]DWLRQ)+& 7KH)XWXUHRI&DSLWDOLVPDQG 'HPRFUDF\ )&' 7KH )XWXUH RI 3RVW+XPDQ &RQVFLRXVQHVV )3+& DQGWKHYROXPHVRI%H\RQG'HPRFUDF\WR3RVW'HPRFUDF\%'3' /HVW DQ\ FRQIXVLRQ RFFXUV LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR VWUHVV DW WKH RXWVHW WKDW WKH ZRUG H[LVWHQWLDO LQ ³H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV´ KDV QRWKLQJ WR GR ZLWK ([LVWHQWLDOLVP ZKLFK , UHEXNHG LQ )+& )&' DQG DOVR )3+& ,QVWHDG WKH ZRUG KHUH PHUHO\ UHIHUV WR WKH H[LVWHQFH RI LQWHOOLJHQW OLIH ERWK SULPLWLYHDQGDGYDQFHG LQDEURDGVHQVH 6RPH%DVLF&RQFHSWV 7KH FRQFHSWLRQ RI H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV RU LWV RQWLFV PDNHV XVH RI GLIIHUHQW FRQFHSWV OLNH ³VHWV´ ³HOHPHQWV´ ³UHODWLRQV´ ³RSHUDWLRQV´ ³IXQFWLRQV´ ³WUXWK YDOXHV´ ³D[LRPV´ ³SRVWXODWHV´ DQG ³SULQFLSOHV´²DV VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH ZKLFK DUH LPSRUWDQW IRU WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI DQ\ ORJLFRIRQWRORJ\ 7KDW FODULILHG²H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV DV D ODQJXDJH RI RQWRORJ\ FDQ EH DQDO\]HG LQ GLIIHUHQW ZD\V WKDW D ODQJXDJH DV DQ DQDORJ\ LV RIWHQ
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
DQDO\]HG QDPHO\ LQ UHODWLRQ WR SKRQRORJ\ ³WKH VWXG\ RI SDWWHUQV RI D ODQJXDJH V VRXQGV´ SKRQHWLFV ³WKH VWXG\ RI WKH SK\VLFDO DVSHFWV RI VRXQGV RI KXPDQ ODQJXDJH´ PRUSKRQRORJ\ ³WKH VWXG\ RI WKH LQWHUQDO VWUXFWXUH RI ZRUGV´ V\QWD[ ³WKH VWXG\ RI KRZ ZRUGV FRPELQH WR IRUP JUDPPDWLFDO VHQWHQFHV´ VHPDQWLFV ³WKH VWXG\ RI WKH PHDQLQJ RI ZRUGV >OH[LFDO VHPDQWLFV@ DQG IL[HG ZRUG FRPELQDWLRQV >SKUDVHRORJ\@´ DQG SUDJPDWLFV³WKHVWXG\RIKRZXWWHUDQFHVDUHXVHG«OLWHUDOO\ILJXUDWLYHO\ RURWKHUZLVH«LQFRPPXQLFDWLYHDFWV´ :. %XWVLQFHP\WKHRU\RIH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVPDNHVXVHRIWKH(QJOLVK ODQJXDJHIRUFRPPXQLFDWLRQKHUHLWGRHVQRWSURSRVHDQHZZD\WRPDNH WKH SDWWHUQV RI D ODQJXDJH¶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³WKHGLOHPPDRIRQWRORJ\´DVLQWURGXFHGHDUOLHULQ6HF RI7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ.QRZOHGJH)3+. $ JRRG SRLQW RI GHSDUWXUH FRQFHUQV ZKDW , ZDQW WR FDOO WKH RQWLF GLVSXWHRQKRZWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHYHU\QDWXUHRIRQWRORJ\ 7UDGLWLRQDOO\ VFKRODUV LQ WKH ILHOG XVHG WR VWXG\ WKH FRQFHSWLRQ RI RQWRORJ\LQWHUPVRILWVHQWLWLHVHJPDWHULDOREMHFWVDEVWUDFWQXPEHUV SURSHUWLHVHJGXUDWLRQSOXUDOLW\ DQGUHODWLRQVKLSVHJFDXVDWLRQ 7KLV LV D JRRG VWDUWLQJ SRLQW EXW LW VXIIHUV IURP GLIIHUHQW SUREOHPV &RQVLGHU WKUHH H[DPSOHV RI ELDV EHORZ ZKLFK DUH TXLWH FRPPRQ LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH DQG WKH UHFHQW YHUVLRQ RI WUHDWLQJ FRQFHSWV DQG SULQFLSOHV LQ RQWRORJ\ RQ WKH EDVLV RI ³SOXUDOLW\´ ³G\QDPLVP´ ³GXUDWLRQ´ ³LQWHUDFWLRQ´ ³OLIH´ ³FRQVFLRXVQHVV´ DQG ³YROLWLRQ´ E\ 5HJLQDOG )LUHKDPPHU RQO\ FRQVWLWXWHV D ODWHVW DGGLWLRQ WR WKLV ROG LPSRYHULVKLQJ WUDGLWLRQ )LUVWO\ WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI HQWLWLHV SURSHUWLHV DQG UHODWLRQVKLSV LV WRR PDWHULDOFHQWULF LQ RIWHQ IRFXVLQJ PRUH RQ WKH H[LVWHQFH RI PDWHULDO HQWLWLHVWKDQRQQRQPDWHULDORQHV 6HFRQGO\WKHFODVVLILFDWLRQLVWRRDQWKURSRFHQWULFLQRIWHQIDYRULQJ WKHIDFWRURIKXPDQDJHQF\LQGHSLFWLQJUHDOLW\
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
$QG ODVWO\ WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ LV WRR FRQIXVHG DPRQJ WKH WKUHH FDWHJRULHVUHODWLQJWRHDFKRWKHULQRIWHQ OXPSLQJWKHP WRJHWKHU ZLWKRXW DGHTXDWH FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI WKHLU LQWULFDWHG LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV ERWK LQ UHODWLRQWRHDFKDQGLQUHODWLRQWRDOO $JRRGDOWHUQDWLYHLVSUHFLVHO\ZKDW,ZDQWWRRIIHULQWKLVGHEDWHWKDW LV D QHZ FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI RQWRORJLFDO HQWLWLHV SURSHUWLHV DQG WKHLU UHODWLRQVKLSVLQWHUPVRIPHWKRGVWUXFWXUHSURFHVVDJHQF\DQGRXWFRPH LQVWHDG/HWPHH[SOLFDWHZKDWWKHVHZRUGVPHDQEHORZ ,QUHODWLRQWR³PHWKRG´²LWFRQFHUQVKRZRQWRORJ\LVWREHVWXGLHG,Q WKLV VHQVH WKH ZRUG PHWKRG KHUH VKRXOG QRW EH FRQIXVHG ZLWK WKH GLIIHUHQWXVDJHRIWKHVDPHWHUP PHWKRG DVDWHFKQLTXHRILQYHVWLJDWLRQLQ WKHFRQWH[WRIPHWKRGRORJ\DVDOUHDG\LQWURGXFHGLQ6HFRI)3+. ,Q UHODWLRQ WR ³VWUXFWXUH´²LW FRQFHUQV ZKDW WKH JHQHUDO SDWWHUQV RI HQWLWLHVSURSHUWLHVDQGUHODWLRQVKLSVDUH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR ³SURFHVV´²LW FRQFHUQV KRZ WKHVH JHQHUDO SDWWHUQV FKDQJHRYHUWLPH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR ³DJHQF\´²LW FRQFHUQV KRZ DJHQF\ DIIHFWV DQ\ FKDQJH RI WKHVH JHQHUDO SDWWHUQV RYHU WLPH ZLWKRXW SXWWLQJ KRZHYHU WRR PXFK HPSKDVLVRQWKHUROHRIKXPDQDJHQF\ $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR ³RXWFRPH´²LW FRQFHUQV ZKDW WKH RXWSXWV RI WKLV FKDQJHRYHUWLPHDUH
7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFVRU,WV2QWRPHWKRGRORJ\ DQG2QWRORJLF 7KHV\QWD[RIH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVDQDORJRXVO\VSHDNLQJUHIHUVKHUH WRWKHVWUXFWXUHRIDQRQWRORJ\ZKLFKFDQEHVWXGLHGE\ZD\RIFRPELQLQJ LGHDV LQWR FRPSOH[ UHODWLRQVKLSV OLNH RQWRORJLFDO SULQFLSOHV WR GHSLFW UHDOLW\LQWKHZRUOG²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
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
2I FRXUVH RQH FDQQRW WRWDOO\ UXOH RXW DQ\ UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WZR HQWLWLHV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ D FRPSOH[ ZRUOG RI HYHU\WKLQJ EHLQJ OLQNHG WR HYHU\WKLQJHOVH²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²VRLWLVOHVV YDJXHLQEHLQJFOHDUHUDERXWWKHWKLQJLQTXHVWLRQ F 7KLUGO\ DQ RQWRORJLFDO SULQFLSOH FDQQRW EH GHULYHG IURP RWKHU RQHV²DVLILWLVDFKLOGSDUHQWUHODWLRQVKLS ,Q WKLV VHQVH WKH FRQYHQLHQFHLQFRQYHQLHQFH SDLU FDQQRW EH DQ RQWRORJLFDOSULQFLSOHEHFDXVHLWFDQEHGHULYHGIURPRWKHURQHVOLNHWKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVVSULQFLSOHIRULQVWDQFH )RU LQVWDQFH VRPHWKLQJ ZKLFK LV FRQYHQLHQW DOUHDG\ LPSOLHV WKDW LW FDQEHREWDLQHGTXLFNO\UDWKHUWKDQVORZO\ ²DOOWKLQJVFRQVLGHUHG G )RXUWKO\ DQ RQWRORJLFDO SULQFLSOH FDQQRW EH WULYLDO RU SDURFKLDO ²DVLILWLVRQO\RQHFRPSRQHQWFRPSHWLQJZLWKRWKHURQHVIRU LQFOXVLRQLQDVHW ,Q WKLV VHQVH WKH FRQVLVWHQF\LQFRQVLVWHQF\ SDLU FDQQRW EH DQ RQWRORJLFDOSULQFLSOHEHFDXVHLWVYDOLGLW\LVOLPLWHGRUSDURFKLDO DVLWFDQ EHHDVLO\FKDOOHQJHGDQGUHSODFHGE\RSSRVLQJPDMRUQRWPLQRU WKHRULHV HJWKHFRUUHVSRQGHQFHWKHRU\RIWUXWKWKHSUDJPDWLFWKHRU\RIWUXWKWKH VHPDQWLFWKHRU\RIWUXWKWKH GLVFORVHGQHVVWKHRU\RIWUXWKDQG ZKDWQRW QRWMXVWLQDFFRUGDQFHWRWKHFRQVLVWHQF\RUFRKHUHQFH WKHRU\RIWUXWKIRU FRQVLVWHQF\ 7KXVWKHFRQVLVWHQF\DUJXPHQWLVRQO\RQHDPRQJGLIIHUHQWRSSRVLQJ DUJXPHQWVLQUHODWLRQWRWKHORJLFRIZKDWFRQVWLWXWHV³WUXWK´ H )LIWKO\DQRQWRORJLFDOSULQFLSOHFDQQRWEHRQHVLGHGWKDWLVSDUW RIRQHVLGHFDWHJRU\ RIDGLDOHFWLFSDLU ,Q WKLV VHQVH WKH H[WURYHUVLRQLQWURYHUVLRQ SDLU FDQQRW EH DQ RQWRORJLFDOSULQFLSOHVLQFHLWLVSDUWRIWKHVLGHFDWHJRU\ RI³QRUPDOLW\´
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
LQ WKH QRUPDOLW\DEQRUPDOWL\ SDLU EHFDXVH ERWK H[WURYHUVLRQ DQG LQWURYHUVLRQDUHWZRGLIIHUHQW³QRUPDO´SHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVLQSV\FKRORJ\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH QRUPDOLW\DEQRUPDOLW\ SDLU LV DOUHDG\ UHODWHG WR WKH V\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\ SULQFLSOH WKH GHQVLW\HPSWLQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH FRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHDQGWKHVDPHGLIIHUHQFHSULQFLSOHDVZLOOEH H[SODLQHGLQWKHVHFWLRQRQ³WKHSULQFLSOHVDVIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHV´ODWHU I $QGVL[WKO\DQRQWRORJLFDOSULQFLSOHFDQQRWEHPLVOHDGLQJLQWKDW WKH WZR DSSDUHQW RSSRVLWHV DUH QRW UHDOO\ RSSRVLWHV DW DOO XSRQ FORVHU H[DPLQDWLRQ ,Q WKLV VHQVH WKH HDVWZHVW SDLU FDQQRW EH DQ RQWRORJLFDO SULQFLSOH VLQFHHDVWDQGZHVWDUHQRWUHDOO\RSSRVLWHVDVWKHUHDUHDOVRQRUWKVRXWK DQGFHQWHUWRIRUPDVHWRIILYHRSSRVLQJHOHPHQWV %\ WKH VDPH ORJLF WKH OHIWULJKW SDLU FDQQRW EH DQ RQWRORJLFDO SULQFLSOHVLQFHOHIWDQGULJKWZLGWK DUHQRWUHDOO\RSSRVLWHVDVWKHUHDUH DOVRWRSDQGERWWRPKHLJKW EDFNDQGIURQWGHSWK DQGFHQWHUWRIRUPD VHWRIVHYHQHOHPHQWVLQIRXUFDWHJRULHV,QWKHILHOGRIYLVXDOGHVLJQWKLV VHW RI VHYHQ HOHPHQWV LV NQRZQ DV ³IRUP´ DV RSSRVHG WR ³IXQFWLRQ´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³VWUXFWXUH´ EXW FDQ EH UHFODVVLILHG XQGHU WKH FDWHJRU\ RI
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
³PHWKRG´DOWKRXJKLQVRGRLQJLWKDVDGLIIHUHQWPHDQLQJLQWKHFRQWH[W RIPHWKRG 7KH VDPH ORJLF DSSOLHV WR WKH VDPHGLIIHUHQFH SULQFLSOH XQGHU WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³RXWFRPH´ ZKLFK FDQ EH UHFODVVLILHG XQGHU WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³VWUXFWXUH´DOWKRXJKLQVRGRLQJRQFHPRUHLWKDVDGLIIHUHQWPHDQLQJLQ WKHFRQWH[WRIVWUXFWXUH F 7KLUGO\WKHSULQFLSOHVDUHWREHXQGHUVWRRGWRJHWKHUQRWWKDWHDFK SULQLFSOHLVWREHWUHDWHGLQGHSHQGHQWO\RIRWKHUV$IWHUDOOWKHSULQFLSOHV DUHPXWXDOO\FRQVWUDLQLQJLQWKDWWKH\ZRUNWRJHWKHUDVDZKROH G )RXUWKO\ WKH SULQFLSOHV DUH UHOHYDQW WR DOO VXEMHFW PDWWHUV EXW VRPH SULQFLSOHV DUH UHODWLYHO\ VSHDNLQJ RI FRXUVH PRUH XVHIXO WR VRPH VXEMHFW PDWWHUV WKDQ RWKHUV XQGHU FHUWDLQ FRQGLWLRQV²DV LPSOLHG LQ WKH V\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOH H $QG ILIWKO\ WKH SULQFLSOHV FRQVWLWXWH RQO\ WZR OHYHOV RI DQDO\VLV WKLVWLPHDWWKHRQWRORJLFDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOOHYHOV²ZKLOHRWKHUOHYHOV RIDQDO\VLVIURPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHVRIWKHPLQGQDWXUHVRFLHW\DQGFXOWXUH DUHDOVRQHHGHGLQRUGHUWRXQGHUVWDQGUHDOLW\LQLWVWRWDOLW\DVH[SODLQHG LQWKHVHFWLRQRQ³VRSKLVWLFDWHGPHWKRGRORJLFDOKROLVP´VRDVWRDYRLGWKH GXDOGDQJHUVRIUHGXFWLRQLVPDQGUHYHUVHUHGXFWLRQLVP 2QWRPHWKRGRORJ\ :LWKWKHVHVHOHFWLRQFULWHULDDQGFODULILFDWLRQVLQPLQG²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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
2QWRORJLF :LWK WKLV FODULILFDWLRQ RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ RQWRPHWKRGRORJ\ DQG RQWRORJLF LQ PLQG ZKLFK LV FRPSDUDEOH WR WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ PHWKRGRORJ\ DQG RQWRORJ\ DV GHVFULEHG LQ 6HF RI )3+. ²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²RULQDPRUHHOHJDQWWHUPWKHG\QDPLFVRIVSDFH WLPHLQ)& ,Q7KH)XWXUHRI&RPSOH[LW\)& ,DGGHGWKUHHPRUHSULQFLSOHVRQ WRSRIWKHWKUHHDIRUHPHQWLRQHGQDPHO\G WKHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\SULQFLSOH RQWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQSDUWVDQGZKROHH WKHRUGHUFKDRVSULQFLSOH RQWKHSDWWHUQRIWKLQJVDQGI WKHSUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\SULQFLSOH RQWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIWKLQJV²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²ZLWK WKH ILUVW WZR LQ UHODWLRQ WR VWUXFWXUH DQG WKH WKLUGLQUHODWLRQWRSURFHVV
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
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³PHWKRG´²YL] WKH IRUPDOQHVV LQIRUPDOQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH DEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH SDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH H[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH DQG WKH ILFWLRQ UHDOLW\SULQFLSOH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
ILYH SULQFLSOHV LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³VWUXFWXUH´²YL] WKH ILQLWHQHVV WUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH VLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH RSHQQHVVKLGGHQQHVV SULQFLSOHDQGWKHGHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVVSULQFLSOH IRXU SULQFLSOHV LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³SURFHVV´²YL] WKH FKDQJH FRQVWDQF\SULQFLSOHWKHVORZQHVVTXLFNQHVVSULQFLSOHWKHRUGHUFKDRV SULQFLSOHDQGWKHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOH VL[ SULQFLSOHV LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³DJHQF\´²YL] WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOHWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHWKHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\ SULQFLSOH WKH HYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH WKH VRIWQHVV KDUGQHVVSULQFLSOHDQGWKHVHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVVSULQFLSOH WKUHHSULQFLSOHVLQWKHFDWHJRU\RI³RXWFRPH´²YL]WKHUHJUHVVLRQ SURJUHVVLRQSULQFLSOHWKHVDPHGLIIHUHQFHSULQFLSOHDQGWKHVWDELOLW\ UHDFWLRQSULQFLSOH 7KHUHFDQEHPRUHWKDQWZHQW\IRXUSULQFLSOHVLQH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVEXW WKH\DUHZKDW,KDYHGLVFRYHUHGVRIDUDVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH 7KH3ULQFLSOHVDV6KRUW&XWV R@QO\ VSDFHVKLSV HTXLSSHG ZLWK D VSHFLDO IRUFH ILHOG FDQ HQWHU K\SHUVSDFH EHFDXVH H[SRVXUH WR K\SHUVSDFH HYHQ IRU VKRUW SHULRGRIWLPHLVKD]DUGRXVWRXQSURWHFWHGKXPDQV´:.K 6HFRQG3UREOHP ²7KHVHFRQGDVVXPSWLRQFRQFHUQVWKHIDVWHUWKDQOLJKWVSHHG,WLVZHOO NQRZQ WKDW (LQVWHLQ DUJXHG IRU WKH VSHHG RI OLJKW DV WKH XOWLPDWH OLPLW EXW QRZDGD\V SK\LVFLVWV GR DOORZ WKH YLRODWLRQ RI WKLV OLPLW XQGHUFHUWDLQFRQGLWLRQVOLNHWKHK\SRWKHWLFDOH[LVWHQFHRIWDFK\RQV DVZLOOEHH[SODLQHGIXUWKHULQDODWHUVXEVHFWLRQRQWLPHWUDYHO ²(YHQWKHQWKHUHLVDFKDOOHQJHWRH[SODLQLQVFLHQFHILFWLRQ³ZK\VKLSV FDQ WUDYHO IDVWHU WKDQ OLJKW LQ K\SHUVSDFH´ DQG WZR JRRG DUJXPHQWV DUH WKDW ³K\SHUVSDFH PD\ EH VPDOOHU WKDQ UHDO VSDFH DQG WKHUHIRUH D VWDUVKLS VSURSXOVLRQVHHPVWREHJUHDWO\PXOWLSOLHGRUHOVHWKHVSHHG RIOLJKWLQK\SHUVSDFHLVQRWDEDUULHUDVLWLVLQUHDOVSDFH:KDWHYHU WKHUHDVRQLQJWKHJHQHUDOHIIHFWLVWKDWVKLSVWUDYHOLQJLQK\SHUVSDFH VHHPWRKDYHEURNHQWKHVSHHGRIOLJKWDSSHDULQJDWWKHLUGHVWLQDWLRQV PXFK PRUH TXLFNO\ DQG ZLWKRXW WKH VKLIW LQ WLPH WKDW WKH 7KHRU\ RI 5HODWLYLW\ZRXOGVXJJHVW´:.K BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ²7KH5HFXUUHQFHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH+\SHUVSDFHDQG,WV&KDOOHQJH 3DUW,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KLUG3UREOHP ²7KHWKLUGDVVXPSWLRQFRQFHUQVWKHVSHHGRIWLPHWREHPHDVXUHGVD\ E\DFORFN EXWWKLVLVHODERUDWHGLQDGLIIHUHQWVHFWLRQRQWKHUHODWHG LVVXHRI³WLPHWUDYHO´DVVKRZQLQDGLIIHUHQWWDEOHRQWLPHWUDYHO )RXUWK3UREOHP ²7KH IRXUWK DVVXPSWLRQ FRQFHUQV VSDWLDO VKRUWFXW DV LW LV SRVVLEOH EHFDXVH RI WKH FXUYDWXUH RI VSDFH LQ WKDW ³WKH PDQLIROG RI RUGLQDU\ WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO VSDFH LV FXUYHG LQ IRXU RU PRUH KLJKHU VSDFLDO GLPHQVLRQVD K\SHUVSDFH LQWKHJHRPHWULFVHQVH«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´:.K ²%XW WKLV GRHV QRW PHDQ WKDW K\SHUSVDFH LV DOZD\V VDIH ,Q IDFW ³LQ VRPH VFLHQFH ILFWLRQ WKH GDQJHU RI K\SHUVSDFH WUDYHO LV GXH WR WKH FKDQFHWKDWWKHURXWHWKURXJKK\SHUVSDFHPD\WDNHDVKLSWRRFORVHWR DFHOHVWLDOERG\ZLWKDODUJHJUDYLWDWLRQDOILHOGVXFKDVDVWDU,QVXFK VFHQDULRV LI D VWDUVKLS SDVVHV WRR FORVH WR D ODUJH JUDYLWDWLRQDO ILHOG ZKLOHLQK\SHUVSDFHWKHVKLSLVIRUFLEO\SXOOHGRXWRIK\SHUVSDFHDQG UHYHUWVWRQRUPDOVSDFH7KHUHIRUHFHUWDLQK\SHUVSDFH URXWHV PD\EH PDSSHG RXW WKDW DUH VDIH QRW SDVVLQJ WRR FORVH WR VWDUV RU RWKHU GDQJHUV´:-K BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 6RXUFH)URP6HFRI)3+*
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH3UREOHPVRI7LPH7UDYHOLQWRWKH)XWXUH 3DUW, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LUVW3UREOHP ²7KHILUVWSUREOHPFRQFHUQV³WLPHGLODWLRQXQGHUWKH7KHRU\RI6SHFLDO 5HODWLYLW\´ ZKLFK VHSDUDWHV VSDFHWLPH IURP PDVVHQHUJ\ DV VSHFLDO FDVHV 6XSSRVH\RXDUHRQDPRYLQJWUDLQDQGDQREVHUYHURXWVLGHWKH WUDLQLV ZDWFKLQJ \RXDORQJWKHWUDFNV $V \RXUWUDLQ PRYHVDORQJDW WKH VSHHG RI OLJKW RU VRPHWKLQJ FORVH WR LW ³WLPH DV PHDVXUHG E\ \RXUZDWFKWLFNHGDORQJDWDVORZHUSDFHWKDQWLPHPHDVXUHGE\WKH REVHUYHU 1RW RQO\ WKDW GLVWDQFH FKDQJHG WRR )RU WKH REVHUYHU D RQHIRRWUXOHUZKL]]LQJE\RQWKHWUDLQZRXOGKDYHPHDVXUHGOHVVWKDQ DIRRW´12 ²,QIDFW\RXPD\QRWHYHQQRWLFHWKDWWKLVVORZHUFOLFNLQJRIWKHFORFN LQ IDFW HYHU\WKLQJ ORRNV QRUPDO WR \RX LQVLGH WKH WUDLQ DV LW ZDV EHIRUH ³7KH ZHLUG WKLQJ LV WKDW IRU \RX RQ WKH WUDLQ WLPH ZRXOGQ W VHHP WR EH PRYLQJ VORZHU DQG \RXU UXOHU ZRXOGQ W EH VKRUWHU²DOO ZRXOGDSSHDUQRUPDO´12 %\FRQWUDVW\RXLQVWHDGWKLQNWKDW ³WLPHRQWKHUHVWRIWKH(DUWKZRXOGDSSHDUWREHWLFNLQJDORQJVORZHU DQGLWVUXOHUVZRXOGEHVKRUWHU´12 6RERWKRI\RXLQVLVWWKDW WKH RWKHU FORFN QRW KLV LV FOLFNLQJ PRUH VORZO\²DVVXPLQJ RI FRXUVHDQLQHUWLDOIUDPHRIUHIHUHQFH ²1RZFKDQJHWKHVWRU\DELWLQWKDWWKLVWLPHLQVWHDGRIDQ³LQHUWLDO UHIHUHQFHIUDPH´DFFHOHUDWLRQLVDOORZHGDQG\RXDUHRQ\RXUZD\WR ERDUG D VSDFHVKLS $V DQ LOOXVWUDWLRQ VXSSRVH ³>\@RX ERDUG D VSDFHVKLSDQGWDNHRIIIRUGHHSVSDFH7KHVKLSDSSURDFKHVWKHVSHHG RI OLJKW 7LPH IRU \RX VHHPV WR SDVV DV LW DOZD\V KDV ,W WDNHV \RX DERXW ILYH VHFRQGV WR WLH \RXU VKRH %XW WR DQ REVHUYHU RQ (DUWK DVVXPLQJ KH RU VKH FRXOG ZDWFK \RX \RX DUH PRYLQJ DW D VQDLO V SDFH,WWDNHVKRXUVWRWLH\RXUVKRH´12 ,QDQ\HYHQW³\RX FRQWLQXHRQ\RXUMRXUQH\W@KH GLFKRWRP\ EHWZHHQ WKH 6DPH DQG WKH 2WKHUV LV«D JHQHULF LGHDO FRQVWUXFW ZLWK WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKDW LQ UHDO OLIH WKH\ FDQ EH EOXUUHG WR LQFOXGHGLIIHUHQWK\EULGIRUPV´ :LWK WKHVH GLVWLQWLYH IHDWXUHV RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV LQ PLQG²LW LV LPSRUWDQWWRQRWFRPPLWWKH VFKRODUO\ VLQRIUHGXFLQJ WKH DQDO\VLVRIWKH 6DPHWRWKDWRIWKH2WKHUVDQGYLFHYHUVD FRQVHTXHQWO\WKLVERRNLVWR
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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²WREHDGGUHVVHG KHUHDIWHULQWKDWRUGHUDQGVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH
7KH6DPHDQGWKH0LQG 7KH 6DPH ZKHQ H[DPLQHG IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH PLQG LV WR VKRZXVLWVSRVVLELOLW\RULPSRVVLELOLW\ DQGGHVLUDELOLW\RUXQGHVLUDELOLW\ LQDIDVFLQDWLQJ ZD\DQGWKLVFDQEHVKRZQE\ ZD\RI WZRFDVHVWXGLHV QDPHO\ WKH6DPHWKHRUFKHVWUDWHGPRYHPHQWDQGFHOOPLJUDWLRQ DQG WKH6DPHSKLORSDWU\YVJHQHIORZDQGJHQHPLJUDWLRQ²WREH DGGUHVVHGLQZKDWIROORZVUHVSHFWLYHO\
7KH6DPHWKH2UFKHVWUDWHG0RYHPHQWDQG&HOO0LJUDWLRQ 2QHJRRGZD\WRVWDUWWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKHSRVVLELOLW\RULPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ RI WKH 6DPH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ IURPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHPLQGLVWRH[SORUHWKH6DPHWKHRUFKHVWUDWHG PRYHPHQWDQGFHOOPLJUDWLRQ 7KH WHUP ³RUFKHVWUDWHG PRYHPHQW´ LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH RQ ³FHOO PLJUDWLRQ´ UHIHUVWRDFHQWUDOSURFHVVWKDWLV³WKHRUFKHVWUDWHGPRYHPHQW RI FHOOV´ ZLWKLQ WKH ERG\ ³LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW DQG PDLQWHQDQFH RI PXOWLFHOOXODURUJDQLVPV´:.J 7KLV³RUFKHVWUDWHGPRYHPHQW´LVOLNHDFHQWUDODXWKRULW\LQFRPPDQG WKH6DPH ZKLFKKDVWKHSRZHUWRFRRUGLQDWHDQGFRQWUROZKLFKFHOOVJR WRZKLFKORFDWLRQVIRUDSDUWLFXODUIXQFWLRQLQWKHERG\
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
7KH,PSRUWDQFHRIWKH6WXG\RI&HOO0LJUDWLRQ 7KHVWXG\RIFHOOPLJUDWLRQLVLPSRUWDQWHQRXJKEHFDXVHIRULQVWDQFH ³WLVVXH IRUPDWLRQ GXULQJ HPEU\RQLF GHYHORSPHQW ZRXQG KHDOLQJ DQG LPPXQH UHVSRQVHV DOO UHTXLUH WKH RUFKHVWUDWHG PRYHPHQW RI FHOOV LQ SDUWLFXODUGLUHFWLRQVWRVSHFLILFORFDWLRQV´:.J 6RKHUHWKLVFHQWUDOSURFHVVLV³RUFKHVWUDWHG´E\D PDLQDXWKRULW\LQ WKH EUDLQ WKH 6DPH WR FRRUGLQDWH DQG FRQWURO ZKLFK FHOOV JR WR ZKLFK ORFDWLRQV IRU D SDUWLFXODU IXQFWLRQ LQ PLQG HJ ³WLVVXH IRUPDWLRQ´ ³ZRXQG KHDOLQJ´ HWF ²DQG ³FHOOV RIWHQ PLJUDWH LQ UHVSRQVH WR DQG WRZDUG VSHFLILF H[WHUQDO VLJQDOV D SURFHVV FDOOHG FKHPRWD[LV´ :. J 7KXV ³HUURUV GXULQJ WKLV SURFHVV KDYH VHULRXV FRQVHTXHQFHV LQFOXGLQJ PHQWDO UHWDUGDWLRQ YDVFXODU GLVHDVH WXPRU IRUPDWLRQ DQG PHWDVWDVLV´:.J 7KHLPSRUWDQWSUDFWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQKHUHLVWKDW³DQXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI WKH PHFKDQLVP E\ ZKLFK FHOOV PLJUDWH PD\ OHDG WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI QRYHOWKHUDSHXWLF VWUDWHJLHV IRUFRQWUROOLQJ IRUH[DPSOHLQYDVLYHWXPRXU FHOOV´:.J 7ZR0DLQ)HDWXUHVRI&HOO0LJUDWLRQ ,Q JHQHUDO ³WKH PLJUDWLRQ RI VLQJOH PDPPDOLDQ FHOOV LV XVXDOO\ YLHZHGLQWKHPLFURVFRSHDVWKHFHOOVPRYHUDQGRPO\RQDJODVVVOLGH$V WKH DFWXDO PRYHPHQW LV YHU\ VORZ²XVXDOO\ D IHZ PLFURPHWHUVPLQXWH² WLPHODSVHILOPVDUHWDNHQVRWKDWDVSHHGHGXSPRYLHFDQEHYLHZHG7KLV VKRZV WKDW DOWKRXJK WKH VKDSH RI D PRYLQJ FHOO YDULHV FRQVLGHUDEO\ LWV OHDGLQJ IURQW KDV D FKDUDFWHULVWLF EHKDYLRXU 7KLV UHJLRQ RI WKH FHOO LV KLJKO\DFWLYHVRPHWLPHVVSUHDGLQJIRUZDUGTXLFNO\VRPHWLPHVUHWUDFWLQJ VRPHWLPHV UXIIOLQJ RU EXEEOLQJ ,W LV JHQHUDOO\ DFFHSWHG WKDW WKH OHDGLQJ IURQWLVWKHPDLQPRWRUWKDWSXOOVWKHFHOOIRUZDUG´:.J 7KHUH DUH WZR FRPPRQ IHDWXUHV RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ EHORZ :.J ³WKHEHKDYLRXURIWKHOHDGLQJIURQW´ ³DQ\GHEULVRQWKHGRUVDOVXUIDFHRIWKHFHOO PRYHVEDFNZDUGRQWKH FHOO¶VVXUIDFHWRZDUGLWVWUDLOLQJHQG´ ,W LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR QRWH WKDW ³>E@HVLGHV PDPPDOLDQ FHOOV PDQ\ RWKHU HXNDU\RWLFFHOOVDSSHDUWRPRYHLQDVLPLODUZD\2QHRIWKHPRVWYDOXDEOH PRGHO FUHDWXUHV IRU VWXG\LQJ ORFRPRWLRQ DQG FKHPRWD[LV LV WKH DPRHED 'LFW\RVWHOLXP GLVFRLGHXP EHFDXVH WKH\ PRYH PRUH TXLFNO\ WKDQ PRVW
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
PDPPDOLDQFHOOVJURZQLQWKHODEDQGWKH\FKHPRWD[WRZDUGF\FOLF$03 ,QDGGLWLRQWKH\KDYHDKDSORLGJHQRPHWKDWDVVLVWVXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKHUROH RIDSDUWLFXODUJHQHSURGXFWLQPRYHPHQW´:.J 7KH5ROHRIWKH)URQWLQ0ROHFXODU3URFHVVHV %HFDXVHRIWKHUROHRIWKHIURQWZKLFKRIWHQOHDGVLQFHOOPRYHPHQW WKLVUHTXLUHVDQH[SODQDWLRQ7KHUHDUH³WZRPDLQWKHRULHVIRUKRZWKHFHOO DGYDQFHV LWV IURQW HGJH WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO DQG PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´:.J D &\WRVNHOHWDO0RGHO 7KHILUVWWKHRU\LV³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´ZKLFKKROGVWKHYLHZWKDW ³DFWLQSRO\PHUL]DWLRQOHDGVWRH[WHQVLRQRIWKHOHDGLQJHGJH´:.J ,QRWKHUZRUGV³WKHFHOO VIURQWLVDVLWHRIUDSLGDFWLQSRO\PHULVDWLRQ VROXEOHDFWLQ PRQRPHUVSRO\PHULVHWKHUH WRIRUP ILODPHQWV7KLV KDVOHG WRWKHYLHZWKDWLWLVWKHIRUPDWLRQRIWKHVHDFWLQILODPHQWVZKLFKSXVKHV WKH OHDGLQJ IURQW IRUZDUG DQG LV WKH PDLQ PRWLOH IRUFH IRU DGYDQFLQJ WKH FHOO¶V IURQW ,Q DGGLWLRQ F\WRVNHOHWDO HOHPHQWV DUH DEOH WR LQWHUDFW H[WHQVLYHO\ DQG LQWLPDWHO\ ZLWK D FHOO V SODVPD PHPEUDQH´ :. J W@KHUHLVVWLOO JUHDWXQFHUWDLQW\RIKRZ FHOOPLJUDWLRQUHDOO\ZRUNV´DQGDJRRGFDVHLQSRLQWFQFHUQV³PLJUDWLQJ FHOOV´ZKLFK³KDYHDSRODULW\²DIURQWDQGDEDFN:LWKRXWLWWKH\ZRXOG PRYHLQDOOGLUHFWLRQVDWRQFHLHVSUHDG+RZWKLVDUURZLVIRUPXODWHGDW DPROHFXODUOHYHOLQVLGHDFHOOLVXQNQRZQ´:.J 6HFRQGO\DQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIFHOOPLJUDWLRQLVWKDW WKHUHDUHRSSRVLQJH[SODQDWLRQVDERXWFHOOPRYHPHQW )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³WKHUHDUHWZRPDLQWKHRULHVIRUKRZWKH FHOO DGYDQFHV LWV IURQW HGJH WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO DQG PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´ :. J %XW ZKLFK RQH LV ULJKW" 2U ZKLFK FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKHPLVULJKWXQGHUZKDWVSHFLILFFRQGLWLRQV" 7KLUGO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ LV WKDWWKHUROHRIWKHQXFOHXVDQGWKHEDFNLVVWLOOQRWDGHTXDWHO\XQGHUVWRRG )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³LIDFHOO¶VIURQWDGYDQFHVZKDWDERXWWKH UHVWRIWKHFHOO",VLWVLPSO\GUDJJHGIRUZDUGOLNHDVDFN"7KLVLQIRUPDWLRQ LVQRWNQRZQEXWWKHUHDUHVXJJHVWLRQVWKDWWKHQXFOHXVDQGSHUKDSVRWKHU ODUJH VWUXFWXUHV LQVLGH WKH FHOO PD\ DOVR EH SXOOHG IRUZDUG E\ DFWLQ ILODPHQWV,QDGGLWLRQLWPD\EHWKDWWKHUHDURIWKHFHOODFWLYHO\FRQWUDFWV DV LW LV KHUH WKDW LQ VRPH FHOOV WKH PDMRU FRQWUDFWLOH SURWHLQ P\RVLQ LV IRXQG´:.J $QG IRXUWKO\ DQ DGGLWLRQDO PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ LV WKDW WRR PXFK IRFXV KDV EHHQ SXW RQ WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PRYHPHQWQRWRQ³FHOOVZLPPLQJ´ )RULQVWDQFH(G3XUFHOOSURSRVHGKLV³VFDOORSWKHRUHP´E\VXJJHVWLQJ ³YDULRXVZD\VLQZKLFKDQRUJDQLVPFRXOGVZLP´DVVKRZQEHORZ:.
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
J ( 3XUFHOO + %HUJ 0 6LOYHUPDQ & %URNDZ ³7KH\ FRXOG GR VR ZLWK D IODJHOOXP ZKLFK URWDWHV SXVKLQJ WKH PHGLXP EDFNZDUGV²DQG WKH FHOO IRUZDUGV²LQ PXFK WKH VDPH ZD\ WKDWDVKLS¶VVFUHZPRYHVDVKLS7KLVLVKRZVRPHEDFWHULDPRYHWKH IODJHOOXP LV DWWDFKHG DW RQH HQG WR D FRPSOH[ URWDWLQJ PRWRU KHOG ULJLGO\LQWKHEDFWHULDOFHOOVXUIDFH´ ³7KH\FRXOGXVHDIOH[LEOHDUPWKLVFRXOGEHGRQHLQPDQ\GLIIHUHQW ZD\V)RUH[DPSOHPDPPDOLDQVSHUPKDYHDIODJHOOXPZKLFKZKLS OLNHZULJJOHVDWWKHHQGRIWKHFHOOSXVKLQJWKHFHOOIRUZDUG&LOLDDUH TXLWHVLPLODUVWUXFWXUHVWRPDPPDOLDQIODJHOODWKH\FDQDGYDQFHDFHOO OLNHSDUDPHFLXPE\DFRPSOH[PRWLRQQRWGLVVLPLODUWREUHDVWVWURNH´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
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
)RU LQVWDQFH LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH IRUPDOQHVVLQIRUPDOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUHLVIRUPDOQHVVHJWKHIRUPDOORJLFDOUHTXLUHPHQWRIVRXQGQHVVDQG FRPSOHWHQHVVLQDV\VWHPRILGHDVDVLQWKHVWXG\RIFHOOPLJUDWLRQ WKHUH LV LQIRUPDOQHVV HJ WKH QRQIRUPDO H[LVWHQFH RI XQVRXQGQHVV DQG LQFRPSOHWHQHVV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH FULWLFLVPV WKDWWKHDUURZFRQQHFWLQJWKHIURQWDQGWKHEDFNRIDFHOOLVVWLOOXQNQRZQ WKDWWKHUHDUHRSSRVLQJH[SODQDWLRQVDERXWFHOO PRYHPHQWWKDWWRR PXFK IRFXV KDV EHHQ SXW RQ WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PRYHPHQW QRW RQ ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´HWF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH DEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV DEVROXWHQHVV HJ WKH DEVROXWH YLHZ RI ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ ZKLFK KROGVWKHYLHZWKDW³DFWLQSRO\PHUL]DWLRQOHDGVWRH[WHQVLRQRIWKHOHDGLQJ HGJH´ WKHUH LV UHODWLYHQHVV HJ ZKDW LV ULJKW IRU ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ ZKLFK KROGV WKH YLHZ WKDW ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ OHDGV WR H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH OHDGLQJ HGJH´ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ VR IRU ³WKH PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´ ZKLFK KROGV WKH RSSRVLWH YLHZ WKDW ³H[RF\WRVLV OHDGV WR H[WHQVLRQRIWKHOHDGLQJHGJH´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVSDUWLDOLW\HJ WKH SDUWLDO YLHZ RI HDFK PRGHO LQ WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ WKHUH LV WRWDOLW\HJWKHPRUHKROLVWLFYLHZRIFHOOPLJUDWLRQVXFKWKDWWKHZKROH LV QRW WKH VXP RI LWV SDUWV WKDW LV LW FDQQRW EH UHGXFHG WR WKH VXP RI RSSRVLQJ YLHZV OLNH ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ DQG ³WKH PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´ HWF VLQFH WKHUH ZLOO HPHUJH QHZ PRGHOV LQ WKH IXWXUH QRW \HW NQRZQ WRGD\²MXVW DV WKHUH DUH DOUHDG\ DOWHUQDWLYH YLHZ OLNH ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´E\3XUFHOO $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHGLFWDELOLW\ HJ WKH SUHGLFWDEOH WHQGHQF\ RI WKRVH LQ ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´WRIRFXVRQ³DFWLQSRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ WKHUHLVXQSUHGLFWDELOLW\HJ WKH PRUH GLIILFXOW WDVN WR SUHGLFW H[DFWO\ WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´ZLOOUHPDLQLQIOXHQWLDORQDSDUWLFXODUIXWXUHRFFDVLRQ VLQFH WKHUH DUH DOUHDG\ DOWHUQDWLYH YLHZV ZKLFK FKDOOHQJH LW OLNH ³WKH PHPEUDQHIORZPRGHO´DQGWKHYLHZDERXW³FHOOVZLPPLQJ´E\3XUFHOO $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH H[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV H[SOLFDELOLW\ HJ WKH H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKRVH LQ ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ DQG ³WKH PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´ DERXW FHOO PRYHPHQW WKHUH LV LQH[SOLFDELOLW\HJWKHODFNRIVXIILFLHQWH[SODQDWLRQH[SODQDWLRQE\WKRVH LQ³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´DQG³WKHPHPEUDQHIORZPRGHO´LQUHJDUGWR ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´ DV DOWHUQDWLYHO\ SURSRVHG E\ 3XUFHOO $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILFWLRQ HJ WKH ILFWLRQDODVSHFWRI³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´LQVRIDUDVLWLJQRUHVWKHUROHRI ³H[RF\WRVLV´LQWKH³H[WHQVLRQRIWKHOHDGLQJHGJH´ WKHUHLVUHDOLW\HJ WKHUHDOLVWLFDVSHFWRI³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´LQVRIDUDVLWFRQVLGHUVWKH UROH RI ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ LQ WKH ³H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH OHDGLQJ HGJH´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILQLWHQHVVHJWKHILQLWHQXPEHURIPHFKDQLVPVZKLFKOHDGWR³H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH OHDGLQJ HGJH´ LQ D FHOO OLNH ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ DQG ³H[RF\WRVLV´ WKHUH LV WUDQVILQLWHQHVV HJ WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH FHOOV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKLFK KDG PRYHG LQ DFFRUGDQFH WR ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ DQG ³H[RF\WRVLV´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGV WUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHFLVHQHVV HJ WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ DQG ³WKH PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PRYHPHQW LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG WKHUH LV YDJXHQHVV HJ WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQRI³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´DQG³WKHPHPEUDQHIORZPRGHO´ LQWKHVWXG\RIFHOOPRYHPHQWLQWKHDUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGVLQFHLWLVQRWFOHDU ZK\WKHUHPXVWEHRQO\WKHVHWZRPRGHOVQRWDQGVRRQ $QGWKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VLPSOHQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI FHOO PRYHPHQW E\ LWV DGYRFDWHV WKHUHLVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVVHJWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUHFRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLVRIFHOOPRYHPHQWE\FKDOOHQJLQJWKHFODLPVDQGDVVXPSWLRQVDV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DIRUHFLWHG $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHRSHQQHVVKLGGHQQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVRSHQQHVV HJWKHRSHQH[SORUDWLRQRIWKHPHFKDQLVPVOLNH³DFWLQSRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ DQG ³H[RF\WRVLV´ IRU WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI FHOO PRYHPHQW WKHUH LV KLGGHQQHVV HJ WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI WKH PHFKDQLVPV OLNH ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ DQG ³H[RF\WRVLV´ IRU WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI FHOO PRYHPHQWVLQFHLWLJQRUHVWKHSKHQRPHQRQRI³FHOOVZLPPLQJ´QRUGRHV LWDGHTXDWHO\DGGUHVVWKHLVVXHFRQFHUQLQJWKHDUURZFRQQHFWLQJWKHIURQW DQG WKH EDFN RI D FHOO ZKLFK LV VWLOO XQNQRZQ HWF $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHGHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVGHQVHQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´E\WKRVHLQ³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´ WKHUHLVHPSWLQHVV HJWKHUHODWLYHO\OHVVGHQVHRU PRUHHPSW\FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQV
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
ZLWK ³H[RF\WRVLV´E\WKRVHLQ³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´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³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ DQG ³H[RF\WRVLV´ WKHUH LV FKDRV HJ WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF QDWXUH RI FHOO PRYHPHQW LQVRIDU DV WKH ³OHDGLQJ IURQW´ RI D FHOO ³LV KLJKO\ DFWLYH VRPHWLPHV VSUHDGLQJ IRUZDUG TXLFNO\ VRPHWLPHV UHWUDFWLQJ VRPHWLPHV UXIIOLQJ RU EXEEOLQJ´ DQG RIWHQ ´PRYHV UDQGRPO\´ :. J $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VORZQHVV HJWKHUHODWLYHO\VORZHUVSHHGRIDFHOOPRYHPHQWZKHQDFHOOQRUPDOO\ PRYHV EHFDXVH LWV ³DFWXDO PRYHPHQW LV YHU\ VORZ²XVXDOO\ D IHZ PLFURPHWHUVPLQXWH´ WKHUH LV TXLFNQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHG RI D FHOO PRYHPHQW ZKHQ ³WLPHODSVH ILOPV DUH WDNHQ VR WKDW D VSHHGHG XS PRYLH FDQ EH YLHZHG´ WR VHH WKDW WKH FHOO PRYHV PRUH TXLFNO\ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVH[SDQVLRQ HJFHOOV³VRPHWLPHVVSUHDG«IRUZDUG´ WKHUHLVFRQWUDFWLRQHJFHOOV ³VRPHWLPHVUHWUDFW´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV WKHRU\ HJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³FHOO PRYHPHQW´ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ´ WKHUH LV SUD[LV HJ WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³FHOO PRYHPHQW´LQWKHVWXG\RIFHOOPLJUDWLRQWRWKHILHOGRIWKHUDS\EHFDXVH ³DQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKH PHFKDQLVPE\ ZKLFKFHOOV PLJUDWH PD\ OHDGWR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI QRYHO WKHUDSHXWLF VWUDWHJLHV IRU FRQWUROOLQJ IRU H[DPSOH LQYDVLYH WXPRXU FHOOV´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGV WUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFRQYHQWLRQ HJWKHFRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRPDERXWFHOO PRYHPHQWRQWKHEDVLVRI ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ DQG ³WKH PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´ WKHUH LV QRYHOW\ HJWKHDOWHUQDWLYHQRYHOFKDOOHQJHWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPDERXWFHOO PRYHPHQW RQ WKH EDVLV RI ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ DQG ³WKH PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´ E\ WKH QHZ LGHD RI ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´ E\ 3XUFHOO $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH HYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV HYROXWLRQ HJ WKH QDWXUDO HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQV WR H[SHULHQFH DQG XQGHUVWDQGPRYHPHQWLQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHOLNHZDONLQJDURXQG WKHUHLV WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ HJ WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DELOLW\ WR H[SHULHQFHDQGXQGHUVWDQGPRYHPHQWE\WKHLQYHQWLRQRIWKHGLVFLSOLQHRI FHOOPLJUDWLRQIRUWKHVWXG\RI³FHOOVZLPPLQJ´LQVRPHGLVWLQFWLYHZD\V $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVV\PPHWU\ HJWKHH[LVWHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWSDUWVRIDFHOOOLNHWKHIURQWQXFOHXVDQG UHDU WKHUH LV DV\PPHWU\ HJ ³LW LV JHQHUDOO\ DFFHSWHG WKDW WKH OHDGLQJ IURQWLVWKHPDLQPRWRUWKDWSXOOVWKHFHOOIRUZDUG´ :.J $QGWKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHVRIWQHVVKDUGQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVVRIWQHVVHJ WKH DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ E\ LWV DGYRFDWHV WKHUH LV KDUGQHVV HJ WKH FULWLTXH RI ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ E\ WKRVH LQ ³WKH PHPEUDQHIORZPRGHO´RUE\WKRVHLQWKH³FHOOVZLPPLQJ´PRGHO $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VHULRXVQHVV HJ WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI 3XUFHOO ZKHQ KH SURSRVHV ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´ LQ RUGHU WR XQGHUVWDQG FHOO PLJUDWLRQ EHWWHU WKHUH LV SOD\IXOQHVVHJWKHSOD\IXO SDUWRI3XUFHOO ZKHQ KHSOD\VDURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW SRVVLELOLWLHV RI FHOO VZLPPLQJ OLNH VZLPPLQJ ZLWK ³D IODJHOOXP´ ZLWK ³D IOH[LEOHDUP´RUHYHQ LQ WKHFDVHRI ³DK\SRWKHWLFDO WRURLGDOFHOO´E\³URWDWLQJLWVVXUIDFHWKURXJKWKHFHQWUDOKROH´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²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI WKH VSLULWXDO VWXG\ RI DQLPLVP IRU D
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VDFUDO ZRUOGYLHZ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGV WUXH $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VWDELOLW\ HJWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUHVWDEOHFRQGLWLRQRIDQLPLVPLQSUHPRGHUQWLPHV ZKHQSHRSOHOLNH7KRPDV$TXLQDVEHOLHYHGWKDW³VRXOVRUVSLULWVH[LVWQRW RQO\ LQ KXPDQV EXW DOVR LQ DOO RWKHU DQLPDOV SODQWV URFNV QDWXUDO SKHQRPHQD VXFK DV WKXQGHU JHRJUDSKLF IHDWXUHV VXFK DV PRXQWDLQV RU ULYHUVRURWKHUHQWLWLHVRIWKHQDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQW´ WKHUHLVUHDFWLRQHJ WKHROGIDVKLRQHGEHOLHILQDQLPLVPLQSUHPRGHUQWLPHVWKHQOHGWRIXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ QRZDGD\V SHRSOH OLNH 3XUFHOO SURSRVH SK\VLFDO SULQFLSOHV LQ KLV ³VFDOORS WKHRUHP´ WR XQGHUVWDQG FHOO PRYHPHQW ZLWKRXW WKH DSSHDO WR WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D ³VRXO´ RU ³VSLULW´ :. W $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
7KH6DPH3KLORSDWU\YV*HQH)ORZDQG*HQH0LJUDWLRQ $QRWKHU ZD\ WR HYDOXDWH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ RI WKH 6DPH IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH PLQG LV WR H[SORUH WKH 6DPH SKLORSDWU\ YV JHQH IORZ DQG JHQH PLJUDWLRQ²DOWKRXJK WKLV LVVXH KHUH LQ LWV IRFXV RQ ELRORJ\ DQG SV\FKRORJ\ DOVRRYHUODSVZLWKWKHLVVXHFRQFHUQLQJOHVVHUDQLPDOVDQGWKH HQYLURQPHQWLQUHODWLRQWRQDWXUH :LWK WKLV FODULILFDWLRQ LQ PLQG²WKH WHUP ³JHQH PLJUDWLRQ´ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFV UHIHUV WR ³WKH VWXG\ RI DOOHOH IUHTXHQF\ GLVWULEXWLRQDQGFKDQJHXQGHUWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHIRXUPDLQHYROXWLRQDU\ SURFHVVHVQDWXUDOVHOHFWLRQJHQHWLFGULIWPXWDWLRQDQGJHQHIORZ,WDOVR WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW WKH IDFWRUV RI UHFRPELQDWLRQ SRSXODWLRQ VXEGLYLVLRQ DQGSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUH´:.X 6RPH LPSRUWDQW ILJXUHV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFV DUH IRU H[DPSOH³6HZDOO:ULJKW-%6+DOGDQHDQG5$)LVKHUZKRDOVRODLG WKH IRXQGDWLRQV IRU WKH UHODWHG GLVFLSOLQH RI TXDQWLWDWLYH JHQHWLFV´ :. X $OOHOH)UHTXHQF\'LVWULEXWLRQ 7R XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH RI ³DOOHOH IUHTXHQF\ GLVWULEXWLRQ´ DV FLWHG DERYH DQGLWVFKDQJHRYHUWLPHLWLVHDVLHUWRVWDUWZLWKDQLOOXVWUDWLRQRI ³GRPLQDQW´DOOHOHVDQG³UHFHVVLYH´DOOHOHV )RU LQVWDQFH ³DOO RI WKH PRWKV RI WKH VDPH VSHFLHV OLYLQJ LQ DQ LVRODWHG IRUHVW DUH D SRSXODWLRQ $ JHQH LQ WKLV SRSXODWLRQ PD\ KDYH VHYHUDODOWHUQDWHIRUPV>DOOHOHV@ZKLFKDFFRXQWIRUYDULDWLRQVEHWZHHQWKH SKHQRW\SHVRIWKHRUJDQLVPV$QH[DPSOHPLJKWEHDJHQHIRUFRORUDWLRQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
LQPRWKVWKDWKDVWZRDOOHOHVEODFNDQGZKLWH$JHQHSRROLVWKHFRPSOHWH VHWRIDOOHOHVIRUDJHQHLQDVLQJOHSRSXODWLRQWKHDOOHOHIUHTXHQF\IRUDQ DOOHOHLVWKHIUDFWLRQRIWKHJHQHVLQWKHSRROWKDWLVFRPSRVHGRIWKDWDOOHOH IRUH[DPSOHZKDWIUDFWLRQRIPRWKFRORUDWLRQJHQHVDUHWKHEODFNDOOHOH (YROXWLRQ RFFXUV ZKHQ WKHUH DUH FKDQJHV LQ WKH IUHTXHQFLHV RI DOOHOHV ZLWKLQDSRSXODWLRQIRUH[DPSOHWKHDOOHOHIRUEODFNFRORULQDSRSXODWLRQ RIPRWKVEHFRPLQJPRUHFRPPRQ´:.X $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH +DUG\:HLQEHUJ SULQFLSOH ³WKH JHQRW\SH IUHTXHQFLHVFDQEHSUHGLFWHGIURPWKHDOOHOHIUHTXHQFLHV)RUH[DPSOHLQ WKHVLPSOHVWFDVHRIDVLQJOHORFXVZLWKWZRDOOHOHVWKHGRPLQDQWDOOHOHLV GHQRWHG$DQGWKHUHFHVVLYHDDQGWKHLUIUHTXHQFLHVDUHGHQRWHGE\SDQG TIUHT$ SIUHTD TST ,IWKHJHQRW\SHIUHTXHQFLHVDUHLQ +DUG\:HLQEHUJSURSRUWLRQVUHVXOWLQJIURPUDQGRPPDWLQJWKHQZHZLOO KDYHIUHT$$ SIRUWKH$$KRPR]\JRWHVLQWKHSRSXODWLRQIUHTDD T IRU WKH DD KRPR]\JRWHV DQG IUHT$D ST IRU WKH KHWHUR]\JRWHV´ :.X 7KH6DPHDQG3KLORSDWU\ )URP WKH VWDQGSRLQW RI WKH 6DPH WKDW LV WKH JURXS ZKLFK GR QRW PLJUDWH WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI SKLORSDWU\ LV LPSRUWDQW VLQFH WKH WHUP ³SKLORSDWU\´ GHULYHV ³IURP WKH *UHHN KRPHORYLQJ DOWKRXJK LW FDQ EH DSSOLHGWRPRUHWKDQMXVWWKHDUHDWKDWDQDQLPDOZDVERUQLQ´DQGUHIHUVWR ³WKHEHKDYLRXURIUHPDLQLQJLQRUUHWXUQLQJWRDQLQGLYLGXDO VELUWKSODFH´ :.Y 3KLORSDWU\ LV WR GUDZ DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI VSHFLHV ZKLFK SUHIHUWRVWD\ZKHUHWKH\OLYHDQGGRQRWPLJUDWHDQGRQHFRQVHTXHQFHLV WR OLPLW WKH H[WHQW RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ DQG WKXV WKH QDWXUH RI ³DOOHOH IUHTXHQF\GLVWULEXWLRQ´LQDSRSXODWLRQDVLQWURGXFHGDERYH :.X ,Q JHQHUDO ³SKLORSDWU\ FDQ PDQLIHVW LWVHOI LQ VHYHUDO ZD\V´ :. Y ,Q WKH ILUVW ZD\ ³LQ HFRORJ\ SKLORSDWU\ LV WKH EHKDYLRXU RI HOGHU RIIVSULQJVKDULQJWKHSDUHQWDOEXUGHQLQWKHXSEULQJLQJRIWKHLUVLEOLQJVD FODVVLFH[DPSOHRINLQVHOHFWLRQ´:.Y+.RNNR ,QWKHVHFRQGZD\³VSHFLHVWKDWUHWXUQWRWKHLUELUWKSODFHLQRUGHUWR EUHHGDUHVDLGWRH[KLELWQDWDOSKLORSDWU\RUQDWDOKRPLQJ´:.Y $QGLQWKHWKLUGZD\³VSHFLHVWKDWUHWXUQLQFRQVHFXWLYH\HDUVWRWKH VDPH EUHHGLQJ VLWH RU WHUULWRU\ H[KLELW EUHHGLQJ SKLORSDWU\ RU VLWH ILGHOLW\3KLORSDWU\LV JHQHUDOO\EHOLHYHGWRKHOS PDLQWDLQ WKHDGDSWDWLRQ RIDSRSXODWLRQWRD YHU\ VSHFLILFHQYLURQPHQWLHLIDVHW RI JHQHV KDV HYROYHGLQDVSHFLILFDUHDLQGLYLGXDOVWKDWIDLOWRUHWXUQWRWKDWDUHDPD\GR SRRUO\ HOVHZKHUH VR QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ ZLOO IDYRU WKRVH ZKR H[KLELW
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
ILGHOLW\ 7KH OHYHO RI SKLORSDWU\ YDULHV ZLWKLQ PLJUDWRU\ IDPLOLHV DQG VSHFLHV´:.Y3:HDWKHUKHDG 6RPHWLPHV³WKHWHUPLV«DOVRDSSOLHGWRDQLPDOVWKDWOLYHLQQHVWVEXW GRQRWUHPDLQLQWKHPGXULQJDQXQIDYRUDEOHVHDVRQHJWKHZLQWHULQWKH WHPSHUDWH]RQHRUWKHGU\VHDVRQLQWKHWURSLFV DQGOHDYHWRILQGKLGLQJ SODFHV QHDUE\ WR SDVV WKH LQDFWLYH SHULRG FRPPRQ LQ YDULRXV EHHV DQG ZDVSV WKLV LV QRW PLJUDWLRQ LQ WKH XVXDO VHQVH DV WKH ORFDWLRQ RI WKH KLGLQJSODFHLVHIIHFWLYHO\UDQGRPDQGXQLTXHQHYHUORFDWHGRUUHYLVLWHG H[FHSW E\ DFFLGHQW WKRXJK WKH QDYLJDWLRQ VNLOOV UHTXLUHG WR UHORFDWH WKH ROGQHVWVLWHPD\EHVLPLODUWRWKRVHRIPLJUDWLQJDQLPDOV´:.Y :LWK WKLV TXDOLILFDWLRQ DVLGH²RQ WKH RWKHU VLGH RI WKH VDPH FRLQ WKHUHDUHRWKHUIRUFHVZKLFKPD\FRQWULEXWHWRPLJUDWLRQOLNHHPLJUDWLRQ WKHRSSRVLWHRISKLORSDWU\7RXQGHUVWDQGWKLVUHTXLUHVDQ DQDO\VLVRI WKH IRXU HYROXWLRQDU\ SURFHVVHV IRU DOOHOH IUHTXHQF\ GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWK WKH IRXUWK RQH NQRZQ DV ³JHQH IORZ´ WKH PRVW UHOHYDQW WR WKH SUHVHQW GLVFXVVLRQDERXWPLJUDWLRQ DVVKRZQEHORZ $OOHOH)UHTXHQF\'LVWULEXWLRQDQGWKH)RXU(YROXWLRQDU\3URFHVVHV (YROXWLRQDU\ VFLHQWLVWV KDYH SURYLGHG IRXU PDMRU PHFKDQLVPV RU SURFHVVHV WRDFFRXQWIRUWKHFKDQJHRI³DOOHOHIUHTXHQF\GLVWULEXWLRQ´RYHU WLPHDJDLQZLWKWKHIRXUWKRQHNQRZQDV³JHQHIORZ´WKHPRVWUHOHYDQW WR WKH SUHVHQW GLVFXVVLRQ DERXW PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ EHORZ DQG VXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH D 1DWXUDO6HOHFWLRQ 7KH ILUVW SURFHVV WR EH FRQVLGHUHG KHUH LV ³QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ´ ZKLFK UHIHUVWR³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´ :. X E *HQHWLF'ULIW 7KH VHFRQG SURFHVV WR EH FRQVLGHUHG KHUH LV ³JHQHWLF GULIW´ ZKLFK UHIHUVWR³DFKDQJHLQDOOHOHIUHTXHQFLHVFDXVHGE\UDQGRPVDPSOLQJ7KDW LVWKHDOOHOHVLQWKHRIIVSULQJDUHDUDQGRPVDPSOHRIWKRVHLQWKHSDUHQWV
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
*HQHWLF GULIW PD\ FDXVH JHQH YDULDQWV WR GLVDSSHDU FRPSOHWHO\ DQG WKHUHE\ UHGXFH JHQHWLF YDULDELOLW\ ,Q FRQWUDVW WR QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ ZKLFK PDNHV JHQH YDULDQWV PRUH FRPPRQ RU OHVV FRPPRQ GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKHLU UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV WKH FKDQJHV GXH WR JHQHWLF GULIW DUH QRW GULYHQ E\ HQYLURQPHQWDO RU DGDSWLYH SUHVVXUHV DQG PD\ EH EHQHILFLDO QHXWUDO RU GHWULPHQWDOWRUHSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVV7KHHIIHFWRIJHQHWLFGULIWLVODUJHUIRU DOOHOHVSUHVHQWLQDVPDOOHUQXPEHURIFRSLHVDQGVPDOOHUZKHQDQDOOHOHLV SUHVHQWLQPDQ\FRSLHV´:.X-0DVHO')XWX\PD& $YHUV F 0XWDWLRQ 7KHWKLUGSURFHVVWREHFRQVLGHUHGKHUHLV³PXWDWLRQ´ZKLFKUHIHUVWR ³WKH XOWLPDWH VRXUFH RI JHQHWLF YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH IRUP RI QHZ DOOHOHV 0XWDWLRQ FDQ UHVXOW LQ VHYHUDO GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI FKDQJH LQ '1$ VHTXHQFHVWKHVHFDQHLWKHUKDYHQRHIIHFWDOWHUWKHSURGXFWRIDJHQHRU SUHYHQW WKH JHQH IURP IXQFWLRQLQJ 6WXGLHV LQ WKH IO\ 'URVRSKLOD PHODQRJDVWHU VXJJHVWWKDWLI D PXWDWLRQFKDQJHVDSURWHLQ SURGXFHGE\D JHQH WKLV ZLOO SUREDEO\ EH KDUPIXO ZLWK DERXW SHUFHQW RI WKHVH PXWDWLRQVKDYLQJGDPDJLQJHIIHFWVDQGWKHUHPDLQGHUEHLQJHLWKHUQHXWUDO RUZHDNO\EHQHILFLDO´:.X66DZ\HU 0XWDWLRQV FDQ RFFXU LQ GLIIHUHQW ZD\V IRU LQVWDQFH LW RIWHQ WDNHV SODFH ³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´ :. X 3 +DVWLQJV 6 &DUUROO 3 +DUULVRQ &2UHQJR0/RQJ0:DQJ )RULQVWDQFH³WKHKXPDQH\HXVHVIRXUJHQHVWRPDNHVWUXFWXUHVWKDW VHQVHOLJKWWKUHHIRUFRORUYLVLRQDQGRQH IRUQLJKW YLVLRQDOOIRXUDURVH IURPDVLQJOHDQFHVWUDOJHQH$QRWKHUDGYDQWDJHRIGXSOLFDWLQJDJHQHRU HYHQDQHQWLUHJHQRPH LVWKDWWKLVLQFUHDVHVUHGXQGDQF\WKLVDOORZVRQH JHQHLQWKHSDLUWRDFTXLUHDQHZIXQFWLRQZKLOHWKHRWKHUFRS\SHUIRUPV WKH RULJLQDO IXQFWLRQ 2WKHU W\SHV RI PXWDWLRQ RFFDVLRQDOO\ FUHDWH QHZ JHQHVIURPSUHYLRXVO\QRQFRGLQJ'1$´:.X-%RZPDNHU 7*UHJRU\0+XUOHV1/LX$6LHSHO %HVLGHV EHLQJ ³D PDMRU VRXUFH RI YDULDWLRQ PXWDWLRQ PD\ DOVR IXQFWLRQ DV D PHFKDQLVP RI HYROXWLRQ ZKHQ WKHUH DUH GLIIHUHQW
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
SUREDELOLWLHV DW WKH PROHFXODU OHYHO IRU GLIIHUHQW PXWDWLRQV WR RFFXU D SURFHVVNQRZQDVPXWDWLRQELDV«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´:.X0/\QFK$6WROW]IXV/3 %XVWRQ @ 7KHUH LV XVXDOO\ D JHRJUDSKLF UDQJH ZLWKLQ ZKLFK LQGLYLGXDOV DUH PRUH FORVHO\ UHODWHG WR RQH DQRWKHU WKDQ WKRVH UDQGRPO\ VHOHFWHG IURP WKH JHQHUDO SRSXODWLRQ 7KLV LV GHVFULEHG DV WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK D SRSXODWLRQ LV JHQHWLFDOO\ VWUXFWXUHG >9 5HSDFL @ *HQHWLF VWUXFWXULQJ FDQ EH FDXVHG E\ PLJUDWLRQ GXH WR KLVWRULFDO FOLPDWH FKDQJH VSHFLHVUDQJHH[SDQVLRQRUFXUUHQWDYDLODELOLW\RIKDELWDW´:.X G +RUL]RQWDO*HQH7UDQVIHU )LQDOO\ DQRWKHU IDFWRU RI JHQH IORZWUDQVIHU LV ³KRUL]RQWDO JHQH WUDQVIHU´ ZKLFK UHIHUV WR ³WKH WUDQVIHU RI JHQHWLF PDWHULDO IURP RQH RUJDQLVP WR DQRWKHU RUJDQLVP WKDW LV QRW LWV RIIVSULQJ WKLV LV PRVW FRPPRQ DPRQJ EDFWHULD ,Q PHGLFLQH WKLV FRQWULEXWHV WR WKH VSUHDG RI DQWLELRWLFUHVLVWDQFHDVZKHQRQHEDFWHULDDFTXLUHVUHVLVWDQFHJHQHVLWFDQ UDSLGO\ WUDQVIHU WKHP WR RWKHU VSHFLHV«9LUXVHV FDQ DOVR FDUU\ '1$ EHWZHHQ RUJDQLVPV DOORZLQJ WUDQVIHU RI JHQHV HYHQ DFURVV ELRORJLFDO GRPDLQV /DUJHVFDOH JHQH WUDQVIHU KDV DOVR RFFXUUHG EHWZHHQ WKH DQFHVWRUV RI HXNDU\RWLF FHOOV DQG SURNDU\RWHV GXULQJ WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ RI FKORURSODVWVDQGPLWRFKRQGULD´:.X@DQG:LOO3URYLQH ZKR DUJXH WKDW VHOHFWLRQ RQ OLQNHG VLWHV LV D PRUH LPSRUWDQW VWRFKDVWLF IRUFH´:.X')XWX\PD 7KLUGO\VWLOODQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIJHQHPLJUDWLRQLV WKDWWKHUHDUHVSHFLILFLVVXHVVWLOOXQFOHDUZKLFKQHHGIXUWKHUUHVHDUFK )RULQVWDQFH³WKHLPSRUWDQFHRIK\EULGL]DWLRQLQFUHDWLQJQHZVSHFLHV RI DQLPDOV LV XQFOHDU DOWKRXJK FDVHV KDYH EHHQ VHHQ LQ PDQ\ W\SHV RI DQLPDOV ZLWK WKH JUD\ WUHH IURJ EHLQJ D SDUWLFXODUO\ ZHOOVWXGLHG H[DPSOH´:.X-%XUNH59ULMHQKRHN )RXUWKO\DQDGGLWLRQDOPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIJHQHPLJUDWLRQ LV WKDW LW GRHV QRW JLYH VXIILFLHQW DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI VSHFLHV ZKLFK SUHIHU WR VWD\ ZKHUH WKH\ OLYH DQG GR QRW PLJUDWH DQG RQH FRQVHTXHQFHLVWROLPLWWKHH[WHQWRIJHQHPLJUDWLRQ )RU LQVWDQFH WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RI ³SKLORSDWU\´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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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³VHOHFWLRQ´ YV ³JHQHWLF GULIW´ DV DQ H[SODQDWLRQHWF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH DEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV DEVROXWHQHVVHJWKHDEVROXWHYLHZRI5RQDOG)LVKHUZKR³KHOGWKHYLHZ WKDW JHQHWLF GULIW SOD\V DW WKH PRVW D PLQRU UROH LQ HYROXWLRQ´ WKHUH LV UHODWLYHQHVVHJZKDWLVULJKWIRU)LVKHULQUHJDUGWRKLVGLVPLVVDORIWKH UROHRIJHQHWLFGULIWLVQRWQHFHVVDULO\VRIRU0RWRR.LPXUDZKRFODLPHG WKDW ³PRVW RI WKH FKDQJHV LQ WKH JHQHWLF PDWHULDO DUH FDXVHG E\ QHXWUDO PXWDWLRQVDQGJHQHWLFGULIW´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
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
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³DGDSWDWLRQ´³WKHGLYLQHGHVLJQ´HWF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVR KROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILFWLRQ HJ WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH LGHD RI YDULDWLRQ LQVRIDU DV LW ZDV XQGHUVWRRG E\ ZD\RI³WKHLGHDRIEOHQGLQJLQKHULWDQFHGXULQJWKHWKFHQWXU\SULRUWR WKHGLVFRYHU\RIJHQHWLFV«LQZKLFKLWZDVWKRXJKWLQKHULWHGWUDLWVZHUH GHWHUPLQHG UDQGRPO\ IURP D UDQJH ERXQGHG E\ WKH KRPRORJRXV WUDLWV IRXQG LQ WKH SDUHQWV´ ZKLFK LV QRZ UHMHFWHG LQ PRGHUQ SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFV WKHUHLVUHDOLW\HJWKHUHDOLVWLFDVSHFWRIWKHLGHDRIYDULDWLRQ LQVRIDU DV LW ZDV ODWHU XQGHUVWRRG LQVWHDG RQ WKH EDVLV RI ³WKH +DUG\ :HLQEHUJ SULQFLSOH´ ZKLFK ³SURYLGHV WKH VROXWLRQ WR KRZ YDULDWLRQ LV PDLQWDLQHGLQDSRSXODWLRQZLWK0HQGHOLDQLQKHULWDQFH´DQGDFFRUGLQJWR WKLVSULQFLSOH³WKHIUHTXHQFLHVRIDOOHOHV>YDULDWLRQVLQDJHQH@ZLOOUHPDLQ FRQVWDQW LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI VHOHFWLRQ PXWDWLRQ PLJUDWLRQ DQG JHQHWLF GULIW´ :.X Z:(ZHQV $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQ DOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILQLWHQHVV HJ WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH FDWHJRULHV RI DOOHOHV QDPHO\ ³GRPLQDQW´ YV ³UHFHVVLYH´ DOOHOHV WKHUH LV WUDQVILQLWHQHVV HJ WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDO RUJDQLVPV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKLFK KDYH HYHUH[LVWHGDQGKDYHGRPLQDQWDQGRUUHFHVVLYHDOOHOHV $QGWKHUHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHFLVHQHVV HJ WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI IRXU SURFHVVHV IRU WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI DOOHOH IUHTXHQF\ GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG WKHUH LV YDJXHQHVV HJ WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH IRXU SURFHVVHV IRU WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI DOOHOH IUHTXHQF\ GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ WKH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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³QHXWUDO PXWDWLRQV DQG JHQHWLF GULIW´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³UDQGRPVDPSOLQJ´DVLQJHQHWLFGULIWPXWDWLRQHWFLQ SRSXODWLRQJHQHWLFVQRZDGD\V $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VORZQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU UDWH RI PXWDWLRQ WR RFFXU LI ³RUJDQLVPV KDYH HYROYHGPHFKDQLVPVVXFKDV'1$UHSDLUWRUHPRYHPXWDWLRQV´ WKHUHLV TXLFNQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU UDWH RI PXWDWLRQ WR RFFXU LI WKH '1$ UHSDLU PHFKDQLVPV GR QRW ZRUN SURSHUO\ :. X - %HUWUDP $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
,QUHODWLRQWRWKHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVH[SDQVLRQ HJ WKH UHODWLYH LQFUHDVH RI IXQFWLRQDO JHQHV LI PXWDWLRQV VXFFHHG LQ SURGXFLQJ ³QHZ IXOO\ IXQFWLRQDO JHQHV´ WKHUH LV FRQWUDFWLRQ HJ WKH UHODWLYHGHFUHDVHRIIXQFWLRQDOJHQHVLIPXWDWLRQELDVOHDGVWR³WKHORVVRI IXQFWLRQ´RIJHQHV $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV WKHRU\ HJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI 0HQGHOLDQ JHQHWLFV WKHUH LV SUD[LV HJ WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI 0HQGHOLDQ JHQHWLFV WR WKH ILHOG RI SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFVZKHQ³)LVKHU+DOGDQHDQG:ULJKW«LQWHJUDWHGQDWXUDOVHOHFWLRQ ZLWK0HQGHOLDQJHQHWLFVZKLFKZDVWKHFULWLFDOILUVWVWHSLQGHYHORSLQJD XQLILHG WKHRU\ RI HYROXWLRQ´ :. X 3 %RZOHU ( /DUVRQ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFRQYHQWLRQ HJ WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP RI ³ILHOG QDWXUDOLVWV´ LQ WKH HDUO\ WK FHQWXU\ZKHQWKH\EHOLHYHGWKDW³/DPDUFNLDQDQGRUWKRJHQLFPHFKDQLVPV RI HYROXWLRQ SURYLGHG WKH EHVW H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH FRPSOH[LW\ WKH\ REVHUYHGLQWKHOLYLQJZRUOG´ WKHUHLVQRYHOW\HJWKHDOWHUQDWLYHQRYHO FKDOOHQJHWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPRIWKHVH³ILHOGQDWXUDOLVWV´LQUHJDUG WR ³/DPDUFNLDQ DQG RUWKRJHQLF PHFKDQLVPV´ E\ WKH QHZ LGHD RI SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFV QRZDGD\V ZLWK WKH V\QWKHVLV RI ³QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ´ ZLWK³0HQGHOLDQJHQHWLFV´ :.X-%HDWW\ $QGWKHUHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH HYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV HYROXWLRQHJWKH QDWXUDOHYROXWLRQRI KXPDQVWREUHHG ZLWK HDFKRWKHU ZKHQ WKH\ PLJUDWH WR GLIIHUHQW DUHDV LQ WKH VWDWH RI QDWXUH WKHUH LV WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ HJ WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DELOLW\ WR XQGHUVWDQGEUHHGLQJLQ PLJUDWLRQE\WKHLQYHQWLRQRISRSXODWLRQJHQHWLFV IRUWKHVWXG\RIJHQHPLJUDWLRQ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVV\PPHWU\ HJ WKH H[LVWHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW PXWDWLRQV WKHUH LV DV\PPHWU\ HJ DFFRUGLQJWRPXWDWLRQELDV³LIVHOHFWLRQZRXOGIDYRUHLWKHURQHRXWRIWZR PXWDWLRQV EXW WKHUH LV QR H[WUD DGYDQWDJH WR KDYLQJ ERWK WKHQ WKH PXWDWLRQ WKDW RFFXUV WKH PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ LV WKH RQH WKDW LV PRVW OLNHO\ WR EHFRPH IL[HG LQ D SRSXODWLRQ´ :. X : (ZHQV $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHVRIWQHVVKDUGQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVVRIWQHVVHJ WKHDSSUHFLDWLRQRIWKHUROHRIJHQHWLFGULIWLQWKHVWXG\RIJHQHPLJUDWLRQ E\.LPXUD WKHUHLVKDUGQHVVHJWKHFULWLTXHRIWKHUROHRIJHQHWLFGULIW LQWKHVWXG\RIJHQHPLJUDWLRQE\)LVKHU $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVR KROGVWUXH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VHULRXVQHVVHJWKHVHULRXVEXVLQHVVRIWKRVHZKRZDQWWRXQGHUVWDQGWKH QDWXUHRI YDULDWLRQLQDSRSXODWLRQ WKHUHLVSOD\IXOQHVVHJWKHSOD\IXO SDUW RI WKRVH ZKR ZDQW WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH RI YDULDWLRQ LQ D SRSXODWLRQ ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG ZLWK ³WKH LGHD RI EOHQGLQJ LQKHULWDQFH GXULQJWKHWKFHQWXU\´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²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH VWXG\ RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VHFXODU OLIHZRUOG $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VWDELOLW\ HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI ³WKH LGHD RI EOHQGLQJ LQKHULWDQFHGXULQJWKHWKFHQWXU\´ZKHQSHRSOHEHOLHYHGWKDW³LQKHULWHG WUDLWV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG UDQGRPO\ IURP D UDQJH ERXQGHG E\ WKH KRPRORJRXVWUDLWVIRXQGLQWKHSDUHQWV´ WKHUHLVUHDFWLRQHJ³WKHLGHD RI EOHQGLQJ LQKHULWDQFH GXULQJ WKH WK FHQWXU\´ WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ QRZDGD\V ³WKH +DUG\:HLQEHUJ SULQFLSOH«SURYLGHV WKH VROXWLRQ WR KRZ YDULDWLRQ LV PDLQWDLQHG LQ D SRSXODWLRQ ZLWK 0HQGHOLDQ LQKHULWDQFH´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGVWUXH
7KH6DPHDQG1DWXUH 7KH6DPHZKHQH[DPLQHGIURPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIQDWXUHFDQVKRZ XVLWVSRVVLELOLW\RULPSRVVLELOLW\ DQGGHVLUDELOLW\RUXQGHVLUDELOLW\ LQD ZRQGHUIXO ZD\ DQG WKLV FDQ EH VKRZQ E\ ZD\ RI WZR FDVH VWXGLHV
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
QDPHO\ WKH6DPHWKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVDQGSODQHWDU\PLJUDWLRQ DQG WKH 6DPH VHGHQWDULQHVV LQ QDWXUH DQG ELUG PLJUDWLRQ²WR EH DGGUHVVHGLQZKDWIROORZVUHVSHFWLYHO\
7KH6DPHWKH1HEXODU+\SRWKHVLVDQG3ODQHWDU\0LJUDWLRQ $ JRRG ZD\ WR VWDUW WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ RI WKH 6DPH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI QDWXUH LV WR H[SORUH WKH 6DPH WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLVDQGSODQHWDU\PLJUDWLRQ ,QFRVPRORJ\WKHWHUP³QHEXODUK\SRWKHVLV´HVSHFLDOO\ZLWKLWVPRVW UHFHQW YDULDQW NQRZQ DV 61'0 UHIHUV WR ³WKH PRVW ZLGHO\ DFFHSWHG PRGHOH[SODLQLQJWKHIRUPDWLRQDQGHYROXWLRQRIWKH6RODU6\VWHP7KHUH LV HYLGHQFH WKDW LW ZDV ILUVW SURSRVHG LQ E\ (PDQXHO 6ZHGHQERUJ 2ULJLQDOO\DSSOLHGRQO\WRRXURZQ6RODU6\VWHPWKLVPHWKRGRISODQHWDU\ V\VWHP IRUPDWLRQ LV QRZ WKRXJKW WR EH DW ZRUN WKURXJKRXW WKH XQLYHUVH 7KH ZLGHO\ DFFHSWHG PRGHUQ YDULDQW RI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV LV 6RODU 1HEXODU 'LVN 0RGHO 61'0 RU VLPSO\ 6RODU 1HEXODU 0RGHO´ :. [70RQWPHUOH0:RROIVRQ*%DNHU $ GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI SODQHWDU\ PLJUDWLRQ FDQ EH GLYLGHG LQWR WZR SDUWV QDPHO\ D WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI SURWRVWDUV DQG SURWRSODQHWDU\ GLVNV DQG E WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI SODQHWV DV VKRZQEHORZDQGVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH 7KH)RUPDWLRQRI3URWRVWDUVDQG3URWRSODQHWDU\'LVNV 7KHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVKDVPXFKWRVD\DERXWWKHIRUPDWLRQRIVWDUV DQGSURWRSODQHWDU\GLVNV²HVSHFLDOO\LQWKHFXUUHQWFRQWH[WRI PLJUDWLRQ WKH PRYHPHQW DQG WUDQVSRUW RI SDUWLFOHV FORXGV DVWHURLGV PHWHULRWHV FRPHWVDQGVRRQLQUHODWLRQWRWKH6DPHWKDWLVWKHFHQWUDOSDUWRIWKH QHEXOD D 3URWRVWDUV $FFRUGLQJWRWKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLV³VWDUVDUHWKRXJKWWRIRUPLQVLGH JLDQWFORXGVRIFROGPROHFXODUK\GURJHQ²JLDQWPROHFXODUFORXGVURXJKO\ WLPHV WKH PDVV RI WKH 6XQ DQG SDUVHFV LQ GLDPHWHU 2YHU PLOOLRQV RI \HDUV JLDQW PROHFXODU FORXGV DUH SURQH WR FROODSVH DQG IUDJPHQWDWLRQ 7KHVH IUDJPHQWV WKHQ IRUP VPDOO GHQVH FRUHV ZKLFK LQ WXUQFROODSVHLQWRVWDUV7KHFRUHVUDQJHLQPDVVIURPDIUDFWLRQWRVHYHUDO WLPHVWKDWRIWKH6XQDQGDUHFDOOHGSURWRVWHOODUSURWRVRODU QHEXODH7KH\ SRVVHVV GLDPHWHUV RI ± SF ± $8 DQG D SDUWLFOH QXPEHUGHQVLW\RIURXJKO\WRFPí´ZKHUHSFVWDQGVIRU
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
³DERXW WULOOLRQ PLOHV´ SHU VHFRQG DQG $8 VWDQGV IRU ³WKH DYHUDJH GLVWDQFHEHWZHHQWKH(DUWKDQGWKH6XQURXJKO\VSHDNLQJ ´:.[ \ ]7 0RQWPHUOH 5 3XGULW] 3&ODUN ) 0RWWH 7KHQ ³WKH LQLWLDO FROODSVH RI D VRODUPDVV SURWRVWHOODU QHEXOD WDNHV DURXQG \HDUV (YHU\ QHEXOD EHJLQV ZLWK D FHUWDLQ DPRXQW RI DQJXODU PRPHQWXP*DVLQWKHFHQWUDOSDUWRIWKH QHEXOD ZKRVHDQJXODU PRPHQWXPLVUHODWLYHO\ORZXQGHUJRHVIDVWFRPSUHVVLRQDQGIRUPVDKRW K\GURVWDWLFQRWFRQWUDFWLQJ FRUHFRQWDLQLQJDVPDOOIUDFWLRQRIWKH PDVV RIWKHRULJLQDOQHEXOD7KLVFRUHIRUPVWKHVHHGRIZKDWZLOOEHFRPHDVWDU $VWKHFROODSVHFRQWLQXHVFRQVHUYDWLRQRIDQJXODUPRPHQWXPPHDQVWKDW WKHURWDWLRQRIWKHLQIDOOLQJHQYHORSDFFHOHUDWHVZKLFKODUJHO\SUHYHQWVWKH JDVIURPGLUHFWO\DFFUHWLQJRQWRWKHFHQWUDOFRUH7KHJDVLVLQVWHDGIRUFHG WRVSUHDGRXWZDUGVQHDULWVHTXDWRULDOSODQHIRUPLQJDGLVNZKLFKLQWXUQ DFFUHWHVRQWRWKHFRUH7KHFRUHJUDGXDOO\JURZVLQPDVVXQWLOLWEHFRPHVD \RXQJ KRW SURWRVWDU $W WKLV VWDJH WKH SURWRVWDU DQG LWV GLVN DUH KHDYLO\ REVFXUHGE\WKHLQIDOOLQJHQYHORSHDQGDUHQRWGLUHFWO\REVHUYDEOH´:. [ 6 6WDKOHU + ,@Q
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
$XVWUDOLD RI QRQSDVVHULQH ELUGV DQG RI SDVVHULQH VSHFLHV DUH SDUWLDOO\PLJUDWRU\´:.L.&KDQ 1RZ DOWKRXJK WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH ELUG VSHFLHV WKDW LV ³WKH 6DPH´ GR QRW PLJUDWH PXFK WKH\ FDQ VWLOO PRYH DURXQG EXW LQ DQ ³LUUHJXODU´ PRYHPHQW ZKLFK LV ³PHUH PRYHPHQW RU ZDQGHULQJ«EXW QRW QHFHVVDULO\ RU ZLWK UHJXODULW\´ HJ ³QRPDGLVP LQYDVLRQV LUUXSWLRQV´ RU ³LQ RQO\ RQH GLUHFWLRQ´ OLNH ³PRYHPHQW RI \RXQJ DZD\ IURP QDWDO DUHD´ ´ :. L M3%HUWKROG 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG ³WKH 2WKHUV´ WKDW LV WKH RI WKH ZRUOG¶V ELUG VSHFLHV ZKLFK PLJUDWH DORW LQ WKH SUHVHQW FRQWH[W FDQ EH FDOOHG³PLJUDWRU\ELUGV´ 6KRUW'LVWDQFHYV/RQJ'LVWDQFH%LUG0LJUDWLRQ 7KHUHDUHWZRPDLQW\SHVRIELUGPLJUDWLRQQDPHO\D VKRUWGLVWDQFH ELUGPLJUDWLRQDQGE ORQJGLVWDQFHELUGPLJUDWLRQ D 6KRUW'LVWDQFH%LUG0LJUDWLRQ 8QOLNH³PDQ\ORQJGLVWDQFHPLJUDQWV>ZKLFK@DSSHDUWREHJHQHWLFDOO\ SURJUDPPHG WR UHVSRQG WR FKDQJLQJ GD\ OHQJWK´²³VSHFLHV WKDW PRYH VKRUW GLVWDQFHV KRZHYHU PD\ QRW QHHG VXFK D WLPLQJ PHFKDQLVP DQG PD\PRYHLQUHVSRQVHWRORFDOZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV´:.L )RU WKLV UHDVRQ ³PRXQWDLQ DQG PRRUODQG EUHHGHUV VXFK DV :DOOFUHHSHU DQG :KLWHWKURDWHG 'LSSHU PD\ PRYH RQO\ DOWLWXGLQDOO\ WR HVFDSHWKHFROGKLJKHUJURXQG2WKHUVSHFLHVVXFKDV0HUOLQDQG6N\ODUN ZLOOPRYHIXUWKHUWRWKHFRDVWRUWRDPRUHVRXWKHUO\UHJLRQ6SHFLHVOLNH WKH &KDIILQFK DUH QRW PLJUDWRU\ LQ %ULWDLQ EXW ZLOO PRYH VRXWK RU WR ,UHODQGLQYHU\FROGZHDWKHU´:.L ,QJHQHUDOVKRUWGLVWDQFHELUGPLJUDQWVKDYHWZRHYROXWLRQDU\RULJLQV DQG D JRRG H[DPSOH FRQFHUQV ³VKRUWGLVWDQFH SDVVHULQH PLJUDQWV´ DV VKRZQEHORZ ³7KRVHWKDWKDYHORQJGLVWDQFHPLJUDQWVLQWKHVDPHIDPLO\VXFKDV WKH &KLIIFKDII DUH VSHFLHV RI VRXWKHUQ KHPLVSKHUH RULJLQV WKDW KDYH SURJUHVVLYHO\VKRUWHQHGWKHLUUHWXUQ PLJUDWLRQWRVWD\LQWKHQRUWKHUQ KHPLVSKHUH´ ³6SHFLHVWKDWKDYHQRORQJGLVWDQFH PLJUDWRU\UHODWLYHVVXFKDVWKH ZD[ZLQJV DUH HIIHFWLYHO\ PRYLQJ LQ UHVSRQVH WR ZLQWHU ZHDWKHU UDWKHUWKDQHQKDQFHGEUHHGLQJRSSRUWXQLWLHV´ +RZHYHU ³LQ WKH WURSLFV WKHUH LV OLWWOH YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH OHQJWK RI GD\ WKURXJKRXW WKH \HDU DQG LW LV DOZD\V ZDUP HQRXJK IRU D IRRG VXSSO\
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
DOWKRXJKEHFDXVHRIFRPSHWLWLRQWKHUHPD\QRWEHHQRXJKIRRGIRUHYHU\ ELUG 0LJUDWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH WURSLFV KDV EHHQ IDU OHVV VWXGLHG WKDQ LQ WKH WHPSHUDWH]RQHV´:.L E /RQJ'LVWDQFH%LUG0LJUDWLRQ $ JRRG H[DPSOH RI ORQJGLVDQFH ELUG PLJUDQWV FRQFHUQV ³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´:.L 7KHUH DUH FHUWDLQ EDUULHUV ZKLFK FDQ PDNH ORQJGLVWDQFH PLJUDWLRQ PRUHGLIILFXOWDVVKRZQEHORZ:.L /DFNRI6SHFLILF.LQGVRI:DWHU²)RUH[DPSOH³DODUJHDUHDRIODQG ZLWKRXWERGLHVRIZDWHUWKDWRIIHUIHHGLQJVLWHVLVDEDUULHUWRDZDWHU ELUG 2SHQ VHD PD\ DOVR EH D EDUULHU WR D ELUG WKDW IHHGV LQ FRDVWDO ZDWHUV 'HWRXUV DYRLGLQJ VXFK EDUULHUV DUH REVHUYHG IRU H[DPSOH %UHQW*HHVHPLJUDWLQJIURPWKH7D\P\U3HQLQVXODWRWKH:DGGHQ6HD WUDYHOYLDWKH:KLWH6HDFRDVWDQGWKH%DOWLF6HDUDWKHUWKDQGLUHFWO\ DFURVVWKH$UFWLF2FHDQDQGQRUWKHUQ6FDQGLQDYLD´ 8QIDYRUDEOH :HDWKHU²³0DQ\ VSHFLHV VXFK DV 'XQOLQ DQG :HVWHUQ 6DQGSLSHU XQGHUWDNH ORQJ PRYHPHQWV IURP WKHLU $UFWLF EUHHGLQJ JURXQGVWRZDUPHUORFDWLRQVLQWKHVDPHKHPLVSKHUHEXWRWKHUVVXFK DV 6HPLSDOPDWHG 6DQGSLSHU WUDYHO ORQJHU GLVWDQFHV WR WKH WURSLFV LQ WKH6RXWKHUQ+HPLVSKHUH/LNHWKHODUJHDQGSRZHUIXO ZLOGIRZO WKH ZDGHUVDUHVWURQJIOLHUV7KLVPHDQVWKDWELUGVZLQWHULQJLQWHPSHUDWH UHJLRQV KDYH WKH FDSDFLW\ WR PDNH IXUWKHU VKRUWHU PRYHPHQWV LQ WKH HYHQWRISDUWLFXODUO\LQFOHPHQWZHDWKHU´ 6RPHORQJGLVWDQFHELUGPLJUDQWVDUHOHJHQGDU\LQWKHLUDELOLW\WRIO\ORQJ GLVWDQFH IRULQVWDQFH ³WKH PRVWSHODJLFVSHFLHV PDLQO\LQWKH WXEHQRVH RUGHU 3URFHOODULLIRUPHV DUH JUHDW ZDQGHUHUV DQG WKH DOEDWURVVHV RI WKH VRXWKHUQ RFHDQV PD\ FLUFOH WKH JOREH DV WKH\ ULGH WKH URDULQJ IRUWLHV RXWVLGHWKHEUHHGLQJVHDVRQ7KHWXEHQRVHVVSUHDGZLGHO\RYHUODUJHDUHDV RI RSHQ RFHDQ EXW FRQJUHJDWH ZKHQ IRRG EHFRPHV DYDLODEOH 0DQ\ DUH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
DOVR DPRQJ WKH ORQJHVWGLVWDQFH PLJUDQWV 6RRW\ 6KHDUZDWHUV QHVWLQJ RQ WKH)DONODQG,VODQGVPLJUDWHNPPL EHWZHHQWKHEUHHGLQJ FRORQ\ DQG WKH 1RUWK $WODQWLF 2FHDQ RII 1RUZD\ 6RPH 0DQ[ 6KHDUZDWHUVGRWKLVVDPHMRXUQH\LQUHYHUVH$VWKH\DUHORQJOLYHGELUGV WKH\PD\FRYHUHQRUPRXVGLVWDQFHVGXULQJWKHLUOLYHVRQHUHFRUGEUHDNLQJ 0DQ[ 6KHDUZDWHU LV FDOFXODWHG WR KDYH IORZQ PLOOLRQ NP PLOOLRQ PLOHV GXULQJLWVRYHU\HDUOLIHVSDQ´:.L +RZHYHU QRW DOO ORQJGLVWQFH ELUG PLJUDQWV DUH VR FDSDEOH IRU LQVWDQFH ³VRPH ODUJH EURDGZLQJHG ELUGV UHO\ RQ WKHUPDO FROXPQV RI ULVLQJ KRW DLU WR HQDEOH WKHP WR VRDU 7KHVH LQFOXGH PDQ\ ELUGV RI SUH\ VXFKDVYXOWXUHVHDJOHVDQGEX]]DUGVEXWDOVRVWRUNV7KHVHELUGVPLJUDWH LQ WKH GD\WLPH 0LJUDWRU\ VSHFLHV LQ WKHVH JURXSV KDYH JUHDW GLIILFXOW\ FURVVLQJ ODUJH ERGLHV RI ZDWHU VLQFH WKHUPDOV RQO\ IRUP RYHU ODQG DQG WKHVHELUGVFDQQRWPDLQWDLQDFWLYHIOLJKWIRUORQJGLVWDQFHV´:.L 0RWLYDWLRQVIRU%LUG0LJUDWLRQ 7KHUH DUH GLIIHUHQW PRWLYDWLRQV IRU ELUG PLJUDWLRQ IRU LOOXVWUDWLRQ FRQVLGHUWKUHHPDLQRQHVEHORZDVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH :.L )RRG²³7KHSULPDU\PRWLYDWLRQIRUPLJUDWLRQDSSHDUVWREHIRRGIRU H[DPSOHVRPHKXPPLQJELUGVFKRRVHQRWWRPLJUDWHLIIHGWKURXJKWKH ZLQWHU´ %UHHGLQJ²³$OVR WKH ORQJHU GD\V RI WKH QRUWKHUQ VXPPHU SURYLGH H[WHQGHG WLPH IRU EUHHGLQJ ELUGV WR IHHG WKHLU \RXQJ 7KLV KHOSV GLXUQDO ELUGV WR SURGXFH ODUJHU FOXWFKHV WKDQ UHODWHG QRQPLJUDWRU\ VSHFLHVWKDWUHPDLQLQWKHWURSLFV´ :HDWKHU²³6SHFLHV WKDW KDYH QR ORQJGLVWDQFH PLJUDWRU\ UHODWLYHV VXFK DV WKH ZD[ZLQJV DUH HIIHFWLYHO\ PRYLQJ LQ UHVSRQVH WR ZLQWHU ZHDWKHU´ 6XUHO\ WKHUH FDQ EH RWKHU PRWLYDWLRQV VLQFH WKH H[DPSOHV KHUH DUH LOOXVWUDWLYHQRWH[KDXVWLYH (QGRJHQRXVDQG([RJHQRXV)DFWRUV 7KH PRWLYDWLRQV IRU DQLPDO PLJUDWLRQ FDQ EH H[SODLQHG LQ WHUPV RI WZR NLQGV RI IDFWRUV QDPHO\ D HQGRJHQRXV IDFWRUV DQG E H[RJHQRXV IDFWRUVDVVKRZQEHORZDQGVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH D (QGRJHQRXV)DFWRUV 7KHWHUP³HQGRJHQRXVIDFWRUV´UHIHUWRWKRVHIDFWRUVZKLFK³RULJLQDWH IURPWKHRUJDQLVPLWVHOIVH[DJHELRORJLFDOUK\WKPVHWF´:.EE
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
,QWKHFDVHRIELUGPLJUDWLRQWKHUHDUHWKUHHHQGRJHQRXVIDFWRUVWREH LOOXVWUDWHG KHUH VLQFH WKH\ ³DUH JHQHWLFDOO\ FRQWUROOHG DQG DSSHDU WR EH D SULPLWLYHWUDLWWKDWLVSUHVHQWHYHQLQQRQPLJUDWRU\VSHFLHVRIELUGV´:. L D 7LPLQJ 7KH ILUVW HQGRJHQRXV IDFWRU LV ³WLPLQJ´ ZKLFK LV ³D SULPDU\ SK\VLRORJLFDO FXH IRU PLJUDWLRQ´ LQ UHVSRQVH WR ³WKH FKDQJHV LQ WKH GD\ OHQJWK7KHVHFKDQJHVDUHDOVRUHODWHGWRKRUPRQDOFKDQJHVLQWKHELUGV´ :.L 7KHIDFWRURIWLPLQJLVLPSRUWDQWKHUHEHFDXVH³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´:.L D 2ULHQWDWLRQDQG1DYLJDWLRQ 7KHVHFRQGHQGRJHQRXVIDFWRULV³RULHQWDWLRQDQGQDYLJDWLRQ´ZKLFK DUH ³EDVHG RQ D YDULHW\ RI VHQVHV 0DQ\ ELUGV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR XVH D VXQ FRPSDVV 8VLQJ WKH VXQ IRU GLUHFWLRQ LQYROYHV WKH QHHG IRU PDNLQJ FRPSHQVDWLRQ EDVHG RQ WKH WLPH 1DYLJDWLRQ KDV DOVR EHHQ VKRZQ WR EH EDVHG RQ D FRPELQDWLRQ RI RWKHU DELOLWLHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH DELOLW\ WR GHWHFW PDJQHWLF ILHOGV PDJQHWRFHSWLRQ XVH YLVXDO ODQGPDUNV DV ZHOO DV ROIDFWRU\FXHV´:.L+:DOUDII +RZHYHU OHDUQLQJ E\ H[SHULHQFH LV DOVR LPSRUWDQW )RU H[DPSOH ³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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
PDJQHWLFILHOGVWUHQJWKVDWGLIIHUHQWODWLWXGHVOHWLWLQWHUSUHWWKHUDGLFDOSDLU PHFKDQLVP PRUH DFFXUDWHO\ DQG OHW LW NQRZ ZKHQ LW KDV UHDFKHG LWV GHVWLQDWLRQ´:.L::LOWVFKNR D 9DJUDQF\ $QG WKH WKLUG HQGRJHQRXV IDFWRU LV ³YDJUDQF\´ ZKLFK UHIHUV WR WKH RFFDVLRQDOIDLOXUHRI³JHQHWLFSURJUDPPLQJ´LQPLJUDWLQJELUGVVXFKWKDW WKH\³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´:.L E ([RJHQRXV)DFWRUV %HVLGHVHQGRJHQRXVIDFWRUV²WKHUHDUHDOVRH[RJHQRXVIDFWRUVZKLFK UHIHUWRWKRVH³HQYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUVDFWLQJRQWKHRUJDQLVPVXFKDVOLJKW JUDYLW\ R[\JHQ WHPSHUDWXUH SUHGDWRUSUH\ LQWHUDFWLRQV HWF´ :. EE ,QWKHFDVHRIELUGPLJUDWLRQWKHUHDUHVRPHPDLQH[RJHQRXVIDFWRUV WREHLOOXVWUDWHGKHUHDVVKRZQEHORZ E &OLPDWLF&KDQJHV 7KHILUVWH[RJHQRXVIDFWRULV³FOLPDWLFFKDQJHV´VXFKWKDWDQ\³ODUJH VFDOHFOLPDWLFFKDQJHVDVKDYHEHHQH[SHULHQFHGLQWKHSDVWDUHH[SHFWHG WRKDYHDQHIIHFWRQWKHWLPLQJRIPLJUDWLRQ6WXGLHVKDYHVKRZQDYDULHW\ RI HIIHFWV LQFOXGLQJ WLPLQJ FKDQJHV LQ PLJUDWLRQ EUHHGLQJ DV ZHOO DV SRSXODWLRQ YDULDWLRQV´ LQ ELUG PLJUDWLRQ :. L / -HQQL & %RWK-:RUPZRUWK E +XPDQ$FWLYLWLHV 7KH VHFRQG H[RJHQRXV IDFWRUV FRQFHUQV ³KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV´ ZKLFK ³KDYHWKUHDWHQHGPDQ\PLJUDWRU\ELUGVSHFLHV´:.L )RU H[DPSOH ³KXQWLQJ DORQJ WKH PLJUDWRU\ URXWH FDQ«WDNH D KHDY\ WROO 7KH SRSXODWLRQV RI 6LEHULDQ &UDQHV WKDW ZLQWHUHG LQ ,QGLD GHFOLQHG GXH WR KXQWLQJ DORQJ WKH URXWH SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ $IJKDQLVWDQ DQG &HQWUDO $VLD%LUGVZHUHODVWVHHQLQWKHLUIDYRULWHZLQWHULQJJURXQGVLQ.HRODGHR 1DWLRQDO 3DUN LQ 6WUXFWXUHV VXFK DV SRZHU OLQHV ZLQG IDUPV DQG RIIVKRUHRLOULJV KDYHDOVREHHQ NQRZQWRDIIHFW PLJUDWRU\ELUGV+DELWDW GHVWUXFWLRQE\ODQGXVHFKDQJHVLVWKHELJJHVWWKUHDWDQGVKDOORZZHWODQGV WKDW DUH VWRSRYHU DQG ZLQWHULQJ VLWHV IRU PLJUDWRU\ ELUGV DUH SDUWLFXODUO\
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
WKUHDWHQHG E\ GUDLQLQJ DQG UHFODPDWLRQ IRU KXPDQ XVH´ :. L 86):6 E 2WKHUV $QGRWKHUH[RJHQRXVIDFWRUVLQFOXGHIRUH[DPSOHOLJKWWHPSHUDWXUH HWF DOWKRXJK WKHVH IDFWRUV DSSO\ WR PDQ\ DQLPDOV OLNH ILVK ELUGV HWF QRWMXVWWRELUGVDORQHLQWKHFXUUHQWFRQWH[W ,Q UHJDUG WR OLJKW²³DQ RUJDQLVPV ZDQWV WR ILQG DQ RSWLPXP OLJKW LQWHQVLW\ LVROXPH :KHWKHU LW LV QR OLJKW RU D ODUJH DPRXQW RI OLJKW DQ RUJDQLVPZLOOWUDYHOWRZKHUHLWLVPRVWFRPIRUWDEOH6WXGLHVKDYHVKRZQ WKDW GXULQJ D IXOO PRRQ RUJDQLVPV ZLOO QRW PLJUDWH«DV IDU RU GXULQJ DQ HFOLSVHWKH\ZLOOVWDUWWRPLJUDWH´:.EE ,Q UHJDUG WR WHPSHUDWXUH²³VRPHWLPHV WKHUPRFOLQHV FDQ DFW DV D EDUULHUWKDWDQRUJDQLVPZLOOQRWFURVV´:.EE 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI6HGHQWDU\YV0LJUDWRU\%LUGV +RZHYHU IRU WKH FULWLFV WKLV VWXG\ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ ELUGV KDVVRPHPDMRUSUREOHPV&RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQDIHZH[DPSOHVEHORZ DVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH )LUVWO\ RQH PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ ELUGV LV WKDW WKHUH LV OLWWOH FRQVHQVXV RQ ZKDW WKH ZRUG ³PLJUDWLRQ´ LV WR PHDQLQWKHVWXG\RIDQLPDOPLJUDWLRQ )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³PLJUDWLRQFDQWDNHYHU\GLIIHUHQWIRUPV LQGLIIHUHQWVSHFLHVDQGDVVXFKWKHUHLVQRVLPSOHDFFHSWHGGHILQLWLRQRI PLJUDWLRQ´:.N 6HFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ELUGVLVWKDWLWLVQRWPXFKH[SODQDWRU\ )RU LQVWDQFH LW LV QRW FOHDU ZK\ RQO\ ³DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RI WKH ZRUOG V ELUG VSHFLHV DUH ORQJGLVWDQFH PLJUDQWV´ RU ZK\ RI WKHELUGVSHFLHVGRQRWPLJUDWHPXFKLQWKHILUVWSODFH7KLVHYHQLIWUXH VKRXOGQHHGDV\VWHPDWLFH[SODQDWLRQ 7KLUGO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ELUGVLVWKDWKXPDQREVHUYDWLRQPD\EHELDVHG )RU LQVWDQFH ³WKH ODUJHO\ XQLQWHUUXSWHG H[SDQVHV RI ODQG PDVV RU RFHDQ WHQG QRW WR IXQQHO PLJUDWLRQV LQWR QDUURZ DQG REYLRXV SDWKZD\V PDNLQJ WKHP OHVV REYLRXV WR WKH KXPDQ REVHUYHU´ DERXW ELUG PLJUDWLRQ :.L )RXUWKO\ DQ DGGLWLRQDO PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ELUGVLVWKDWVRPHEDQGLQJVWXGLHVDERXWELUGPLJUDWLRQWHQGWR EHPLVOHDGLQJ )RU LQVWDQFH ³DW OHDVW IRU WHUUHVWULDO ELUGV FOLPDWLF UHJLRQV WHQG WR IDGHLQWRRQHDQRWKHURYHUDORQJGLVWDQFHUDWKHUWKDQEHHQWLUHO\VHSDUDWH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WKLVPHDQVWKDWUDWKHUWKDQPDNHORQJWULSVRYHUXQVXLWDEOHKDELWDWWRUHDFK SDUWLFXODU GHVWLQDWLRQV PLJUDQW VSHFLHV FDQ XVXDOO\ WUDYHO DW D UHOD[HG SDFHIHHGLQJDVWKH\JR6KRUWRIEDQGLQJVWXGLHVLWLVRIWHQQRWREYLRXV WKDWWKHELUGV VHHQ LQDQ\SDUWLFXODUORFDOLW\DVWKHVHDVRQVFKDQJHDUHLQ IDFW GLIIHUHQW PHPEHUV RI WKH VDPH VSHFLHV SDVVLQJ WKURXJK JUDGXDOO\ ZRUNLQJWKHLUZD\QRUWKRUVRXWK´:.L $QG ILIWKO\ DQRWKHU DGGLWLRQDO PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ ELUGV LV WKDW WKH KXPDQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI HQGRJHQRXVDQGH[RJHQRXVIDFWRUVIRUELUGPLJUDWLRQUHPDLQVLQDGHTXDWH )RU LQVWDQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV ³WKH DELOLW\ RI ELUGV WR QDYLJDWH GXULQJ PLJUDWLRQV FDQQRW EH IXOO\ H[SODLQHG E\ HQGRJHQRXV SURJUDPPLQJ HYHQ ZLWKWKHKHOSRIUHVSRQVHVWRHQYLURQPHQWDOFXHV´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
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
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³WKH WHPSHUDWH ]RQHV RI WKH VRXWKHUQ FRQWLQHQWV´ OLNH ³$XVWUDOLD DQG ZHVWHUQ VRXWKHUQ $IULFD´ WR PLJUDWH LQ UHVSRQVH WR ZHDWKHU FKDQJHV WKHUH LV XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\HJ WKH PRUHGLIILFXOWWDVNWRSUHGLFWH[DFWO\ ZKHQDQG ZKHUH ELUGV LQ ³WKH WHPSHUDWH ]RQHV RI WKH VRXWKHUQ FRQWLQHQWV´ OLNH ³$XVWUDOLD DQG ZHVWHUQ VRXWKHUQ $IULFD´ ZLOO PLJUDWH LQ UHVSRQVH WR ZHDWKHU FKDQJHV EHFDXVH ³ZHDWKHUGULYHQ PRYHPHQWV DUH FRPPRQ EXW QRW DOZD\V SUHGLFWDEOH´ HVSHFLDOO\ LQ UHJDUG WR LWV ³XQSUHGLFWDEOH YDULDWLRQ´LQWKHUHJLRQ :.L $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGV WUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH H[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV H[SOLFDELOLW\ HJ WKH H[SODQDWLRQ RI ³WKH DELOLW\ RI ELUGV WR QDYLJDWH GXULQJ PLJUDWLRQV´ RQ WKH EDVLV RI HQGRJHQRXV IDFWRUV DV GLVFXVVHG HDUOLHU WKHUHLVLQH[SOLFDELOLW\HJWKHODFNRI VXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQRI ZK\ HQGRJHQRXV IDFWRUV DUH VXIILFLHQW WR H[SODLQ ³WKH DELOLW\ RI ELUGV WR QDYLJDWHGXULQJPLJUDWLRQV´VLQFHDVWKHFULWLFVSRLQWHGRXWLW³FDQQRWEH IXOO\ H[SODLQHG E\ HQGRJHQRXV SURJUDPPLQJ HYHQ ZLWK WKH KHOS RI UHVSRQVHV WR HQYLURQPHQWDO FXHV´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGV WUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILFWLRQ HJ WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH VWXG\ RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ LQVRIDU DV SHRSOH LQ DQWLTXLW\ OLNH $ULVWRWOH ³VXJJHVWHG WKDW VZDOORZV DQG RWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´ZKLFKWXUQHGRXWWREHIDOVH WKHUHLVUHDOLW\HJWKHUHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI WKH VWXG\ RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ LQVRIDU DV LW FRQWULEXWHV WR D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJRI PLJUDWLRQ IRUVRPHELUGVDVVKRZQLQWKHH[DPSOHWKDW
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
³LW ZDV QRW XQWLO HDUO\ LQ WKH QLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\ WKDW PLJUDWLRQ DV DQ H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH ZLQWHU GLVDSSHDUDQFH RI ELUGV IURP QRUWKHUQ FOLPHV ZDV DFFHSWHG´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³FOLPDWLFUHJLRQV´ZKLFK³WHQGWRIDGHLQWR RQH DQRWKHU RYHU D ORQJ GLVWDQFH UDWKHU WKDQ EH HQWLUHO\ VHSDUDWH WKLV PHDQV WKDW UDWKHU WKDQ PDNH ORQJ WULSV RYHU XQVXLWDEOH KDELWDW WR UHDFK SDUWLFXODU GHVWLQDWLRQV PLJUDQW VSHFLHV FDQ XVXDOO\ WUDYHO DW D UHOD[HG SDFHIHHGLQJDVWKH\JR´ WKHUHLVKLGGHQQHVVHJWKHKLGGHQELDVLQWKLV OLQNDJHRI³FOLPDWLFUHJLRQV´ZLWK³PLJUDQWVSHFLHV´EHFDXVH³LWLVRIWHQ QRW REYLRXV WKDW WKH ELUGV VHHQ LQ DQ\ SDUWLFXODU ORFDOLW\ DV WKH VHDVRQV FKDQJHDUHLQIDFWGLIIHUHQWPHPEHUVRIWKHVDPHVSHFLHVSDVVLQJWKURXJK JUDGXDOO\ ZRUNLQJ WKHLU ZD\ QRUWK RU VRXWK´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHGHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVGHQVHQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI ³PLJUDWLQJ ELUGV DW VWRSRYHU VLWHV´ WKHUHLVHPSWLQHVVHJWKHUHODWLYHO\OHVVGHQVH RU PRUHHPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQRI³PLJUDWLQJELUGV´LQ³DODUJHDUHDRIODQGZLWKRXWERGLHV RI ZDWHU WKDW RIIHU IHHGLQJ VLWHV´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGV WUXH
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFKDQJHFRQVWDQF\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFKDQJHHJ WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR VWXG\ PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ WKHUHLVFRQVWDQF\HJWKHHYHUFRQVWDQWH[LVWHQFHRIGLIIHUHQW SUREOHPV LQ WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR VWXG\ PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPVZLWKWKHVWXG\RIELUGPLJUDWLRQSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFV $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHRUGHUFKDRVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVRUGHUHJWKHPRUH RU OHVV RUGHUO\ QDWXUH RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ ZKHQ ³ELUGV PLJUDWH EHWZHHQ QRUWKHUQ DQG VRXWKHUQ UHJLRQV´ DQG ³WKH PDJQHWLF ILHOG VWUHQJWKV DW GLIIHUHQW ODWLWXGHV OHW LW LQWHUSUHW WKH UDGLFDO SDLU PHFKDQLVP PRUH DFFXUDWHO\ DQG OHW LW NQRZ ZKHQ LW KDV UHDFKHG LWV GHVWLQDWLRQ´ WKHUH LV FKDRV HJ WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF QDWXUH RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ ZKHQ ³YDJUDQF\´RFFXUV ZLWKWKHRFFDVLRQDOIDLOXUHRI ³JHQHWLFSURJUDPPLQJ´ LQ PLJUDWLQJELUGVVXFKWKDWWKH\ ³FDQORVHWKHLU ZD\DQGDSSHDURXWVLGH WKHLUQRUPDOUDQJHV´WRWKHSRLQWWKDW³GULIWPLJUDWLRQRIELUGVEORZQRII FRXUVH E\ WKH ZLQG FDQ UHVXOW LQ IDOOV RI ODUJH QXPEHUV RI PLJUDQWV DW FRDVWDOVLWHV´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VORZQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU VSHHG RI ELUGV PLJUDWLQJ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH GLVWXUEHGE\VWURQJZLQGLQWKHRSSRVLWHGLUHFWLRQRU³EORZQRIIFRXUVHE\ WKH ZLQG´ WKHUH LV TXLFNQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHG RI ELUGV PLJUDWLQJ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH KHOSHG E\ VWURQJ ZLQG LQ WKH VDPH GLUHFWLRQ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVH[SDQVLRQ HJWKHUHODWLYHH[SDQVLRQRIWKHUDQJHRIELUGVIO\LQJWRJHWKHUDVVKRZQ LQWKHH[DPSOHRI ³WKH3DVVHQJHU3LJHRQ>(FWRSLVWHV PLJUDWRULXV@´ ZKHQ ³GXULQJ PLJUDWLRQ WKH IORFNV ZHUH D PLOH > NP@ ZLGH DQG PLOHV >NP@ORQJWDNLQJVHYHUDOGD\VWRSDVVDQGFRQWDLQLQJXSWRDELOOLRQ ELUGV´ WKHUHLVFRQWUDFWLRQHJWKHUHODWLYHGHFOLQHRIWKHUDQJHRIELUGV IO\LQJWRJWKHUZKHQWKLV³FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIELUGVGXULQJPLJUDWLRQFDQSXW VSHFLHVDWULVN´VRWKDWWKHUDQJHFDQVKULQNFRQVLGHUDEO\E\WKHWLPHWKH IORFNVUHDFKWKHLUGHVWLQDWLRQ :.L $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVR KROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV WKHRU\ HJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH QHJDWLYH LPSDFW RI ³KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV´ RQ ELUG PLJUDWLRQ OLNH ³WKUHDWV DQG FRQVHUYDWLRQ´ WKHUH LV SUD[LV HJ WKH SUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKHQHJDWLYHLPSDFW RI ³KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV´ RQ ELUG PLJUDWLRQ OLNH ³WKUHDWV DQG FRQVHUYDWLRQ´ WRWKHILHOGRIFRQVHUYDWLRQ PRYHPHQWOLNHWKHSDVVLQJRI³WKH0LJUDWRU\ %LUG 7UHDW\ $FW RI RI WKH 86 DQG WKH $IULFDQ(XUDVLDQ 0LJUDWRU\
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
:DWHUELUG$JUHHPHQW´ :.L $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGV WUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFRQYHQWLRQ HJWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPLQDQWLTXLW\WKDW³VZDOORZVDQGRWKHUELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´ WKHUH LV QRYHOW\ HJ WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP LQ DQWLTXLW\ WKDW ³VZDOORZV DQG RWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´ E\ WKH QHZ LGHD LQ PRGHUQ WLPHV WKDW ³PLJUDWLRQ´ LV LQ IDFW ³DQ H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH ZLQWHU GLVDSSHDUDQFH RI ELUGV IURP QRUWKHUQ FOLPHV´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH HYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV HYROXWLRQHJWKHQDWXUDOHYROXWLRQRIKXPDQVWRREVHUYHELUGPLJUDWLRQ LQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHLQDSULPLWLYHZD\ WKHUHLVWUDQVIRUPDWLRQHJWKH WHFKQLFDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIKXPDQDELOLW\WRXQGHUVWDQGELUGPLJUDWLRQE\ WKH LQYHQWLRQ RI WKH VXEILHOG RI NQRZOHGJH NQRZQ DV WKH VWXG\ RI ³ELUG PLJUDWLRQ´LQDZD\WKDWELUGVFDQQRWLQYHQWWKLVNLQGRINQRZOHGJH $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVV\PPHWU\ HJWKHH[LVWHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWELUGVLQQDWXUH WKHUHLVDV\PPHWU\HJ RQO\ ³DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RI WKH ZRUOG V ELUG VSHFLHV DUH ORQJ GLVWDQFHPLJUDQWV´VRWKLVPHDQVWKDWDERXWRIWKHELUGVSHFLHVGRQRW UHDOO\PLJUDWHPXFKRUIDU $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHVRIWQHVVKDUGQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVVRIWQHVVHJ WKHDSSUHFLDWLRQRIWKHVWXG\RIELUGPLJUDWLRQE\LWVDGYRFDWHVDVVKRZQ LQWKHXVHRIELUGPLJUDWLRQNQRZOHGJHLQWKHFRQVHUYDWLRQPRYHPHQWIRU WKHSDVVLQJRI³WKH0LJUDWRU\%LUG7UHDW\$FWRIRIWKH86DQGWKH $IULFDQ(XUDVLDQ 0LJUDWRU\ :DWHUELUG $JUHHPHQW´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³VXJJHVWHG WKDW VZDOORZV DQG RWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´HWF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH UHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV UHJUHVVLRQ HJ WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DIRUHFLWHG WKHUH LV SURJUHVVLRQ HJ WKH SURJUHVV PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ DV
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
VKRZQ LQ LWV FRQWULEXWLRQ WR D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ELUGVDIRUHFLWHG $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VDPHGLIIHUHQFH SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VLPLODULW\ LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV UHJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH $ULVWRWHOLDQ ZD\ RI VWXG\LQJ ELUGV OLNH WKH LGHD WKDW ³VZDOORZV DQG RWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´²RU E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH PRGHUQZD\RIVWXG\LQJELUGVOLNHWKHLGHDWKDW³PLJUDWLRQ´LVLQIDFW³DQ H[SODQDWLRQIRUWKHZLQWHUGLVDSSHDUDQFHRIELUGVIURPQRUWKHUQFOLPHV´ WKHUH LV GLIIHUHQFH LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH $ULVWRWHOLDQ ZD\ RI VWXG\LQJ ELUGV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VSHFXODWLYH ZRUOGYLHZ²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH PRGHUQ ZD\ RI VWXG\LQJ ELUGV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH HPSLULFLVW ZRUOGYLHZ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VWDELOLW\ HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH ROG EHOLHI LQ DQWLTXLW\ ZKHQSHRSOHLQDQWLTXLW\OLNH$ULVWRWOH³VXJJHVWHGWKDWVZDOORZVDQGRWKHU ELUGVKLEHUQDWHG´ WKHUHLVUHDFWLRQHJWKHGRPLQDQFHRIWKLVROGEHOLHI LQ DQWLTXLW\ E\ SHRSOH OLNH $ULVWRWOH ZKR ³VXJJHVWHG WKDW VZDOORZV DQG RWKHUELUGVKLEHUQDWHG´WKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHVODWHURQZKHQ³LWZDV QRW XQWLO HDUO\ LQ WKH QLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\ WKDW PLJUDWLRQ DV DQ H[SODQDWLRQ IRUWKHZLQWHUGLVDSSHDUDQFHRIELUGVIURPQRUWKHUQFOLPHVZDVDFFHSWHG´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
7KH6DPHDQG6RFLHW\ 7KH 6DPH ZKHQ H[DPLQHG IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI VRFLHW\ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI PLJUDWLRQ UHYHDOV LWV SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ LQ D SRZHUIXO ZD\ DQG WKLV FDQ EH VKRZQ E\ ZD\ RI WZR FDVH VWXGLHV QDPHO\ WKH 6DPH VRFLRSROLWLFDO UHVWULFWLRQV DQG HPLJUDWLRQ DQG WKH 6DPH UDFLDOHWKQLF GLVFULPLQDWLRQDQGLPPLJUDWLRQ²WREHDGGUHVVHGKHUHDIWHU
7KH6DPH6RFLRSROLWLFDO5HVWULFWLRQVDQG(PLJUDWLRQ $Q H[FHOOHQW FDVH VWXG\ WR DQDO\]H WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ RI WKH 6DPH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI VRFLHW\ LV WR H[DPLQH WKH 6DPH VRFLRSROLWLFDO UHVWULFWLRQVDQGHPLJUDWLRQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7KH ZRUG³HPLJUDWLRQ´UHIHUVWR³WKHDFWRIOHDYLQJRQH V FRXQWU\RU UHJLRQ WR VHWWOH LQ DQRWKHU ,W LV WKH VDPH DV LPPLJUDWLRQ EXW IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH FRXQWU\ RI RULJLQ«(PLJUDWLRQ KDG D SURIRXQG LQIOXHQFHRQWKHZRUOGLQWKHWKWKDQGWKFHQWXULHVZKHQPLOOLRQV RI SRRU IDPLOLHV OHIW (XURSH IRU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV &DQDGD %UD]LO $UJHQWLQD WKH UHVW RI /DWLQ $PHULFD $XVWUDOLD DQG 1HZ =HDODQG´ :. FF +RZHYHU RQH VKRXOG QRW FRQIXVH ³HPLJUDWLRQ´ ZKLFK LV YROXQWDU\ ZLWK ³LQYROXQWDU\ PLJUDWLRQ´ OLNH ³SRSXODWLRQ WUDQVIHU RU HWKQLF FOHDQVLQJ´:.FF :LWK WKLV FODULILFDWLRQ LQ PLQG²WKRVH ZKR ZDQW WR HPLJUDWH FDQ EH FDOOHG ³WKH 2WKHUV´ ZKHUHDV ³WKH 6DPH´ LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ UHIHUV WR WKRVH ZKRVWD\EHKLQGDQGFDQEHLQGLIIHUHQWWRRUGRVRPHWKLQJWRSUHYHQWWKH 2WKHUVIURPOHDYLQJWKHFRXQWU\RUDUHDZKHUHWKH\DUHIURP 0RWLYDWLRQVIRUWKH2WKHUVWR(PLJUDWH %XW ZK\ GR WKH 2WKHUV ZDQW WR HPLJUDWH LQ WKH ILUVW SODFH" :HOO SHRSOHZDQWWROHDYHIRUGLIIHUHQWUHDVRQV³7KHUHDUHPDQ\UHDVRQVZK\ SHRSOH PLJKW FKRRVH WR HPLJUDWH 6RPH DUH IRU UHDVRQV RI UHOLJLRXV SROLWLFDO RU HFRQRPLF IUHHGRP RU HVFDSH 2WKHUV KDYH SHUVRQDO UHDVRQV VXFK DV PDUULDJH 6RPH SHRSOH OLYLQJ LQ ULFK QDWLRQV ZLWK FROG FOLPDWHV FKRRVHWRPRYHWRZDUPHUFOLPDWHVZKHQWKH\UHWLUH´IRULQVWDQFH:. FF (YHUHWW 6 /HH RQFH SURSRVHG WZR FDWHJRULHV RI IDFWRUV WR XQGHUVWDQG PLJUDWLRQ QDPHO\ D WKH ³SXVK IDFWRUV´ LQ KRPH FRXQWULHV ZKLFKUHIHUWR³WKLQJVWKDWDUHXQIDYRXUDEOHDERXWWKHDUHDWKDWRQHOLYHV LQ´ DQG E ³SXOO IDFWRUV´ LQ KRVW FRXQWULHV ZKLFK UHIHU WR ³WKLQJV WKDW DWWUDFWRQHWRDQRWKHUDUHD´ :.D ,Q WKH FXUUHQW FRQWH[W RI HPLJUDWLRQ WKH ³SXVK IDFWRUV LQ KRPH FRXQWULHV DUH PRUH UHOHYDQW IRU LOOXVWUDWLRQ KHUH DUH VRPH H[DPSOHVRIWKH³SXVKIDFWRUV´:.D FF 3XVK)DFWRUVLQ+RPH&RXQWULHV ±([³QRWHQRXJKMREV´ ±([³IHZRSSRUWXQLWLHV´ ±([³SULPLWLYHFRQGLWLRQV´ ±([³IDPLQHRUGURXJKW´ ±([³SROLWLFDOIHDURUSHUVHFXWLRQ´ ±([³VODYHU\RUIRUFHGODERU´ ±([³ODFNRISROLWLFDORUUHOLJLRXVIUHHGRP´ ±([³GLVFULPLQDWLRQ´
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
±([³SRRUFKDQFHVRIPDUU\LQJ´ ±([³ZDU´ ±([³VKRUWDJHRIIDUPODQGKDUGWRVWDUWQHZIDUPV´ ±([³FXOWXUDOILJKWVZLWKRWKHUFXOWXUDOJURXSV´ ±([³H[SXOVLRQE\DUPHGIRUFHRUFRHUFLRQ´ 6XUHO\WKHUHFDQEHRWKHUH[DPSOHVVRWKHRQHVDERYHDUHLOOXVWUDWLYHQRW H[KDXVWLYH (IIRUWVRIWKH6DPHWR5HVWULFW(PLJUDWLRQ +RZHYHU WKHVH ³SXVK´ IDFWRUV DUH QRW YHU\ XVHIXO WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH RI HPLJUDWLRQ EHFDXVH WKH\ DOUHDG\ DVVXPH WKDW WKH DXWKRULWLHV LQ TXHVWLRQ WKH 6DPH ZHOFRPH RU DOORZ WKRVH WKH 2WKHUV ZKR ZDQW WR HPLJUDWH%XWWKLVLVQRWQHFHVVDULO\WUXH +LVWRULFDOO\WKHUHKDYHEHHQDOONLQGVRIHPLJUDWLRQUHVWULFWLRQVE\WKH DXWKRULWLHV WKDW EH WKH 6DPH WR SUHYHQW WKH 2WKHUV IURP OHDYLQJ HYHQ ZKHQWKH\DUHPRWLYDWHGWROHDYHIRUUHDVRQVDVFLWHGDERYH &RQVLGHU IRU LOOXVWUDWLRQ VRPH KLVWRULFDO H[DPSOHV EHORZ DV VXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH ³$IWHU WKH 4LQJ (PSHURU EDQQHG +DQ &KLQHVH PLJUDWLRQ WR 0DQFKXULD,QWKHHPSHURURUGHUHGFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKH:LOORZ 3DOLVDGH D EDUULHU EH\RQG ZKLFK WKH &KLQHVH ZHUH SURKLELWHG IURP HQFURDFKLQJRQ0DQFKXDQG0RQJROODQGV´:.FF0(OOLRWW ³7KH 6RYLHW 6RFLDOLVW 5HSXEOLFV RI WKH 6RYLHW 8QLRQ EHJDQ VXFK UHVWULFWLRQV LQ ZLWK ODZV DQG ERUGHUV WLJKWHQLQJ XQWLO HYHQ LOOHJDOHPLJUDWLRQZDVQHDUO\LPSRVVLEOHE\7RVWUHQJWKHQWKLV WKH\ VHW XS LQWHUQDO SDVVSRUW FRQWUROV DQG LQGLYLGXDO FLW\ 3URSLVND SODFH RI UHVLGHQFH SHUPLWV DORQJ ZLWK LQWHUQDO IUHHGRP RI PRYHPHQW UHVWULFWLRQV RIWHQ FDOOHG WKH VW NLORPHWUH ZKLFK UXOHV JUHDWO\UHVWULFWHGPRELOLW\ZLWKLQHYHQVPDOODUHDV´:.FF$ 'RZW\ ³%\ WKH HDUO\ V WKH 6RYLHW DSSURDFK WR FRQWUROOLQJ QDWLRQDO PRYHPHQW ZDV HPXODWHG E\ PRVW RI WKH UHVW RI WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF 5HVWULFWLRQVLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKH(DVWHUQ%ORFVWRSSHGPRVW(DVW:HVW PLJUDWLRQZLWKRQO\PLOOLRQPLJUDWLRQVZHVWZDUGEHWZHHQ DQG«,Q(DVW*HUPDQ\HUHFWHGDEDUEHGZLUHEDUULHUWKDW ZRXOG HYHQWXDOO\ EH H[SDQGHG WKURXJK FRQVWUXFWLRQ LQWR WKH %HUOLQ :DOOHIIHFWLYHO\FORVLQJWKHORRSKROH´:.FF$'RZW\ )7KDFNHUD\$%RFNHU53HDUVRQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
³%\ WKH HDUO\ V WKH 6RYLHW DSSURDFK WR FRQWUROOLQJ LQWHUQDWLRQDO PRYHPHQWZDVDOVRHPXODWHGE\&KLQD0RQJROLDDQG1RUWK.RUHD 1RUWK.RUHDVWLOOWLJKWO\UHVWULFWVHPLJUDWLRQDQGFRQWDLQHGWKH PRVW VWULFWHPLJUDWLRQEDQVLQWKHZRUOGHYHQLQWKHODWHVEHIRUHWKH IDOORIWKH%HUOLQ:DOOWKRXJKVRPH1RUWK.RUHDQVLOOHJDOO\HPLJUDWH WR&KLQD´:.FF$'RZW\+.OHLQVFKPLGW ³2WKHUFRXQWULHVZLWKWLJKWHPLJUDWLRQUHVWULFWLRQVDWRQHWLPHLQFOXGHG $QJROD (WKLRSLD 0R]DPELTXH 6RPDOLD $IJKDQLVWDQ %XUPD 'HPRFUDWLF .DPSXFKHD &DPERGLD IURP /DRV 1RUWK 9LHWQDP ,UDT 6RXWK 6W\OHV,,,DQG,,, LQWKHVWXG\RI $QLPDO6W\OH@DUHVWLOOWKHVXEMHFWRIFRQVLGHUDEOHGHEDWH WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WUHQGV LQ ODWH5RPDQ SRSXODU DUW LQ WKH SURYLQFHV LV RQH HOHPHQW DQG WKH ROGHU WUDGLWLRQV RI QRPDGLF $VLDWLF VWHSSH SHRSOHV DQRWKHU´EXWWKHGLVFRXUVHDERXWWKHPLVVWLOOFRQWURYHUVLDO:.MM 6HFRQGO\DQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKLVVWXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUW LV WKDW PXFK RI WKH DUW PDGH E\ RUJDQLF PDWHULDOV GLG QRW VXUYLYH VR DQ DSSUHFLDWLRQRILWLVQRWSRVVLEOH )RULQVWDQFHDVWKHFULWLFVDUHTXLFNWRSRLQWRXW³PXFKDUWLQRUJDQLF PDWHULDOV>GXULQJWKLVSHULRG@KDVQRGRXEWQRWVXUYLYHG´:.MM 7KLUGO\VWLOODQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRG DUW LV WKDW LW EHFRPHV PL[HG ZLWK &KULVWLDQ LQIOXHQFH VR WKDW D FRPSOHWH GHOLQHDWLRQRIWKH0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUWLVUDWKHUDUELWUDU\ )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³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´:.MM $QGIRXUWKO\DQDGGLWLRQDOPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW LV WKDW VLQFH WKHUH ZHUH VR PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW *HUPDQLF WULEHV LQYDGLQJWKH5RPDQ(PSLUHLWLVQRWFOHDULIWKHUHZDVDJHQHUDO*HUPDQLF VW\OHLQFODVVLILFDWLRQDWDOO
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
)RULQVWDQFHIRUVRPHFULWLFVWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQRI6W\OHV,,,DQG,,, E\6DOLQLVTXHVWLRQDEOHEHFDXVH³DIWHUDERXWORFDOLVHGVW\OHV´ZHUH GLVFRYHUHG´E\UHVHDUFKHUV³LWLVQRORQJHUYHU\XVHIXOWRWDONRIDJHQHUDO *HUPDQLFVW\OH´OLNHWKHRQHVE\6DOLQ:.MM)7KHXZV %H\RQGWKH6WXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRG$UW 2IFRXUVHWKHVHFULWLFLVPVRIWKHVWXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUWGRQRW PHDQ D WRWDO UHMHFWLRQ RI LWV XVHIXOQHVV EXW VHUYH WR VKRZ XV WKH WZR RSSRVLQJ VLGHV RI WKH GHEDWH VXFK WKDW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ RI WKH 6DPH IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI FXOWXUHZLWKWKH6DPHWKHGHFOLQHRIHPSLUHDQG0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUWDVD FDVHVWXG\KHUH DUHQRWWRWKHH[WHQWWKDWWKHUHVSHFWLYHGHIHQGHUVZRXOG OLNHXVWREHOLHYH )XUWKHUPRUH WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH 6DPH WKH GHFOLQH RI HPSLUH DQG 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW FDQ WHDFK XV VRPHWKLQJ LPSRUWDQW DERXW WKH RQWRORJLFDOSULQFLSOHVLQH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVDQGJRRGH[DPSOHVLQFOXGH WKH IRUPDOQHVVLQIRUPDOQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH DEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH SDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW\ XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH H[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH ILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH VLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH RSHQQHVVKLGGHQQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH GHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH FKDQJHFRQVWDQF\ SULQFLSOH WKH RUGHUFKDRV SULQFLSOH WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH H[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH WKH FRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\ SULQFLSOH WKH HYROXWLRQ WUDQVIRUPDWLRQSULQFLSOHWKHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOHWKHVRIWQHVV KDUGQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH VHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH UHJUHVVLRQ SURJUHVVLRQ SULQFLSOH WKH VDPHGLIIHUHQFH SULQFLSOH DQG WKH VWDELOLW\ UHDFWLRQSULQFLSOH )RU LQVWDQFH LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH IRUPDOQHVVLQIRUPDOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUHLVIRUPDOQHVVHJWKHIRUPDOORJLFDOUHTXLUHPHQWRIVRXQGQHVVDQG FRPSOHWHQHVVLQDV\VWHPRILGHDVDVLQWKHVWXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUW WKHUH LV LQIRUPDOQHVV HJ WKH QRQIRUPDO H[LVWHQFH RI XQVRXQGQHVV DQG LQFRPSOHWHQHVV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW DV VKRZQ LQ WKH FULWLFLVPV WKDW LWV RULJLQV DUH VWLOO VXEMHFW WR GHEDWH WKDW PXFK RI WKH DUW PDGHE\RUJDQLFPDWHULDOVGLGQRWVXUYLYHVRWKDWDQDSSUHFLDWLRQRILWLV QRW SRVVLEOH WKDW LW EHFRPHV PL[HG ZLWK &KULVWLDQ LQIOXHQFH VR WKDW D FRPSOHWHGHOLQHDWLRQRIWKH 0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUWLVUDWKHUDUELWUDU\HWF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH DEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV DEVROXWHQHVVHJWKHDEVROXWHYLHZRIWKHDQLPDOVW\OHLQWHUPVRI6W\OHV
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
,,,DQG,,,%\6DOLQ WKHUHLVUHODWLYHQHVVHJZKDWLVULJKWIRU6DOLQLQ UHJDUGWRWKHFODVVLILFDWLRRIWKHDQLPDOVW\OHLQWHUPVRI6W\OHV,,,DQG,,, LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ VR IRU WKH FULWLFV EHFDXVH ³DIWHU DERXW ORFDOLVHG VW\OHV´ZHUHGLVFRYHUHG´E\UHVHDUFKHUV³LWLVQRORQJHUYHU\XVHIXOWRWDON RI D JHQHUDO *HUPDQLF VW\OH´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³WKHFRQYHUVLRQRI*HUPDQLF SHRSOHV E\ WKH HQG RI WKH WK FHQWXULHV LQ ZHVWHUQ (XURSH QHDUHG FRPSOHWLRQWKHFKXUFKEHFDPHWKHSULPHSDWURQIRUDUW´DQG³WKHUHFRUG VKRZV D VWHDG\ GHFOLQH LQ *HUPDQLF IRUPV DQG LQFUHDVLQJ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ LQIOXHQFH´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILFWLRQ HJ WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH DQLPDO VW\OH LQVRIDU DV ³DQLPDOV DUH ZKROHEHDVWV EXW WKHLU ERGLHV DUH HORQJDWHG LQWR ULEERQV ZKLFK LQWHUWZLQHG LQWR V\PPHWULFDOVKDSHVZLWKQRSUHWHQFHRIQDWXUDOLVPDQGUDUHO\DQ\OHJV´ WKHUHLVUHDOLW\HJWKHUHDOLVWLFDVSHFWRIWKHDQLPDOVW\OHLQVRIDUDVWKH DUWZRUNVZHUHWRSRUWUD\WKHH[LVWHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWDQLPDOVOLNH³ELUGV´ ³EHDUV´DOEHLWLQDEVWUDFWLRQ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILQLWHQHVVHJWKHILQLWHQXPEHURIWKHFDWHJRULHVRIDQLPDOVDVVKRZQLQ WKH DQLPDO VW\OH RI *HUPDQLF DUW OLNH ³ELUGV´ ³EHDUV´ HWF WKHUH LV
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
WUDQVILQLWHQHVVHJWKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURIDOOWKHLQGLYLGXDODQLPDOVLQ KLVWRU\ ZKLFK FDQ EH FODVVLILHG LQ WHUPV RI WKH FDWHJRULHV RI DQLPDOV DV VKRZQLQWKHDQLPDOVW\OHRI*HUPDQLFDUWOLNH³ELUGV´³EHDUV´HWF $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHFLVHQHVVHJWKHSUHFLVHFODVVLILFDWLRQRIDQLPDODUWLQWHUPVRI6W\OHV , ,, DQG ,,, %\ 6DOLQ WKHUH LV YDJXHQHVV HJ WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQRIDQLPDODUWLQWHUPVRI6W\OHV,,,DQG,,,%\6DOLQVLQFHLW LVQRWFOHDUZK\WKHUHPXVWEHRQO\QRWDQGVRRQVLQFHIRUWKH FULWLFV³DIWHUDERXWORFDOLVHGVW\OHV´ZHUHGLVFRYHUHG´E\UHVHDUFKHUV ³LW LV QR ORQJHU YHU\ XVHIXO WR WDON RI D JHQHUDO *HUPDQLF VW\OH´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³WKH FRQYHUVLRQ RI *HUPDQLF SHRSOHV >WR &KULVWLDQLW\@E\WKHHQGRIWKHWKFHQWXULHVLQZHVWHUQ(XURSH´HYHQWXDOO\ OHG WR WKH ³VWHDG\ GHFOLQH LQ *HUPDQLF IRUPV´ DQG WKH ³LQFUHDVH«>RI@ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQLQIOXHQFH´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¶VFODVVLILFDWLRQRI6W\OHV,,,DQG,,,RQO\ WKHUHLVFKDRVHJWKH PRUHRUOHVVFKDRWLFUHDOLW\RIDQLPDOVW\OHLIH[SORUHGIURPWKH YDQWDJH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
SRLQW RI ³DERXW ORFDOLVHG VW\OHV´ KDYLQJ EHHQ GLVFRYHUHG´ E\ UHVHDUFKHUV VR WKDW ³LW LV QR ORQJHU YHU\ XVHIXO WR WDON RI D JHQHUDO *HUPDQLF VW\OH´ OLNH WKH RQHV E\ 6DOLQ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VORZQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU VSHHG RI *HUPDQLF DUW WR VSUHDG LQVLGH WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH ZKHQ ³WKH (PSLUH UHDFKHG LWV JUHDWHVW H[WHQW XQGHU (PSHURU 7UDMDQ«GXULQJ KLV UHLJQ > WR $'@ WKHUH LV TXLFNQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHG RI *HUPDQLF DUW WR VSUHDG LQVLGH WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH GXULQJ WKH 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG :. NN $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVH[SDQVLRQ HJ WKH UHODWLYH H[SDQVLRQ RI WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH ZKHQ ³WKH (PSLUH UHDFKHGLWVJUHDWHVWH[WHQWXQGHU(PSHURU7UDMDQ«GXULQJKLVUHLJQ>WR $'@ WKHUH LV FRQWUDFWLRQ HJ WKH UHODWLYH GHFOLQH RI WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH ZKHQ ³WKH :HVWHUQ 5RPDQ (PSLUH FROODSVHG LQ DV 5RPXOXV $XJXVWXV ZDV IRUFHG WR DEGLFDWH WR WKH *HUPDQLF ZDUORUG 2GRDFHU´ DQG ³WKH(DVWHUQ5RPDQRU%\]DQWLQH(PSLUHHQGHGLQZLWKWKHGHDWKRI &RQVWDQWLQH ;, DQG WKH FDSWXUH RI &RQVWDQWLQRSOH E\ WKH 2WWRPDQ 7XUNV OHG E\ 0HKPHG ,,´ :. MM NN $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV WKHRU\ HJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI &KULVWLDQ WKHRORJ\ WKHUH LV SUD[LV HJ WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI &KULVWLDQ WKHRORJ\ WR WKH ILHOG RI SROLWLFV ZKHQ GLIIHUHQW *HUPDQLF WULEHV ZHUH FRQYHUWHG LQWR FODVVLFDO FLYLOL]DWLRQ E\ ³&KULVWLDQL]DWLRQ´ XQGHU WKH JXLGDQFH RI WKH 5RPDQ &DWKROLF &KXUFK E\ WKHWKFHQWXU\ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFRQYHQWLRQ HJ WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW *HUPDQLF DUW GXULQJ WKH 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG WKHUH LV QRYHOW\ HJ WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPDERXW*HUPDQLFDUWGXULQJWKH0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGE\ WKH QHZ LGHD RI WKH 5RPDQ &DWKROLF &KXUFK WR FRQYHUW WKH ³*HUPDQLF SHRSOHVE\WKHHQGRIWKHWKFHQWXULHVLQZHVWHUQ(XURSH´ZKLFKWKHQOHG WR ³D VWHDG\ GHFOLQH LQ *HUPDQLF IRUPV´ DQG WKH LQFUHDVH RI ³0HGLWHUUDQHDQLQIOXHQFH´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH HYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV HYROXWLRQ HJ WKH QDWXUDO HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQV WR HQFRXQWHU DQLPDOV LQ WKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHDOEHLWLQDSULPLWLYHZD\ WKHUHLVWUDQVIRUPDWLRQHJ WKHWHFKQLFDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIKXPDQDELOLW\WRHQFRXQWHUDQLPDOVE\WKH LQYHQWLRQRIDQLPDOVW\OHLQ*HUPDQLFDUW $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVR KROGVWUXH
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
,QUHODWLRQWRWKHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVV\PPHWU\ HJWKHFRH[LVWHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWJURXSVLQDQDUHD WKHUHLVDV\PPHWU\ HJWKH*HUPDQLFWULEHVLQYDGHGWKH5RPDQ(PSLUHDQGVHWWOHGWKHUHEXW WKH 5RPDQ &DWKROLF &KXUFK ODWHU RQ FRQYHUWHG WKHP LQWR FODVVLFDO FLYLOL]DWLRQ E\ ³&KULVWLDQL]DWLRQ´ E\ WKH WK FHQWXU\ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHVRIWQHVVKDUGQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVVRIWQHVVHJ WKH FRQYHUVLRQ RI WKH *HUPDQLF WULEHV LQWR FODVVLFDO FLYLOL]DWLRQ E\ ³&KULVWLDQL]DWLRQ´ XQGHU WKH JXLGDQFH RI WKH 5RPDQ &DWKROLF &KXUFK WKHUHLVKDUGQHVVHJWKHLQYDVLRQRIWKH5RPDQ(PSLUHE\WKH*HUPDQLF WULEHV $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VHULRXVQHVV HJ WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW WR XQGHUVWDQG GLIIHUHQW VW\OHV LQ *HUPDQLF DUW WKHUH LV SOD\IXOQHVV HJ WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW FODVVLILFDWLRQV OLNH 6DOLQ¶V FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI 6W\OHV , ,, DQG ,,, RQO\ EXW ³DIWHU DERXW ORFDOLVHG VW\OHV´ ZHUH GLVFRYHUHG´ E\ UHVHDUFKHUV ³LW LV QR ORQJHU YHU\ XVHIXOWRWDONRIDJHQHUDO*HUPDQLFVW\OH´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²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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
5RPDQ(PSLUHLQWKHHDUO\GD\VWKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHVODWHURQZKHQ WKHVH*HUPDQLFWULEHVZHUHHYHQWXDOO\FRQYHUWHGLQWRFODVVLFDOFLYLOL]DWLRQ E\ ³&KULVWLDQL]DWLRQ´ XQGHU WKH JXLGDQFH RI WKH 5RPDQ &DWKROLF &KXUFK E\WKHWKFHQWXU\ZKLFKWKHQOHGWR³DVWHDG\GHFOLQHLQ*HUPDQLFIRUPV´ DQGWKHLQFUHDVHRI³0HGLWHUUDQHDQLQIOXHQFH´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQ DOVRKROGVWUXH
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¶VQRZWXUQWR&KDSWHU7KUHHIRUWKHVWXG\RIWKH 2WKHUVDQGWKHLUWZLQIDFHV²IRUZKLFKZHQRZWXUQWRFKDSWHUWKUHH
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
7DEOH7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 7KH6DPHDQGWKH0LQG ²([WKH6DPHWKHRUFKHVWUDWHGPRYHPHQWDQGFHOOPLJUDWLRQ ²([WKH6DPHSKLORSDWU\YVJHQHIORZDQGJHQHPLJUDWLRQ 7KH6DPHDQG1DWXUH ²([WKH6DPHWKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVDQGSODQHWDU\PLJUDWLRQ ²([WKH6DPHVHGHQWDULQHVVLQQDWXUHDQGELUGPLJUDWLRQ 7KH6DPHDQG6RFLHW\ ²([WKH6DPHVRFLRSROLWLFDOUHVWULFWLRQVDQGHPLJUDWLRQ ²([WKH6DPHUDFLDOHWKQLFGLVFULPLQDWLRQDQGLPPLJUDWLRQ 7KH6DPHDQG&XOWXUH ²([WKH6DPHFXOWXUDOLQIOXHQFHDQGDVVLPLODWLRQLVP ²([WKH6DPHWKHGHFOLQHRIHPSLUHDQG0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUW BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 1RWHV 7KH H[DPSOHV LQ WKH FDWHJRULHV DUH VROHO\ LOOXVWUDWLYH QRW H[KDXVWLYH DQG WKH FRPSDULVRQ LV UHODWLYH QRW DEVROXWH QRU DUH WKH\ QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH $QG VRPH FDQ EH HDVLO\ UHFODVVLILHG HOVHZKHUH$VJHQHUDOLWLHVWKH\DOORZH[FHSWLRQV 6RXUFH$VXPPDU\RI&KRI)3+0,*
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6DPH3KLORSDWU\YV*HQH)ORZDQG*HQH0LJUDWLRQ BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB $OOHOH)UHTXHQF\'LVWULEXWLRQDQGWKH)RXU(YROXWLRQDU\3URFHVVHV ²([QDWXUDOVHOHFWLRQ ²([JHQHWLFGULIW ²([PXWDWLRQ ²([JHQHIORZWUDQVIHU 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI*HQH0LJUDWLRQ ²)LUVWO\ RQH PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ LV WKDW LW UHOLHVWRRPXFKRQHYROXWLRQDU\WKHRU\ ²6HFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ LV WKDWWKHUHLVDGLVDJUHHPHQWDERXWWKHUROHRI³VHOHFWLRQ´YV³JHQHWLF GULIW´DVDQH[SODQDWLRQ ²7KLUGO\VWLOODQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIJHQHPLJUDWLRQLV WKDW WKHUH DUH VSHFLILF LVVXHV VWLOO XQFOHDU ZKLFK QHHG IXUWKHU UHVHDUFK ²)RXUWKO\DQDGGLWLRQDOPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIJHQHPLJUDWLRQ LV WKDW LW GRHV QRW JLYH VXIILFLHQW DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI VSHFLHVZKLFKSUHIHUWRVWD\ZKHUHWKH\OLYHDQGGRQRWPLJUDWHDQG RQHFRQVHTXHQFHLVWROLPLWWKHH[WHQWRIJHQHPLJUDWLRQ ²$QG ILIWKO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU DGGLWLRQDO PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ LV WKDW WKH IRXU HYROXWLRQDU\ SURFHVVHV DUH QRW QHFHVVDULO\FRPSOHWH BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 1RWHV 7KH H[DPSOHV LQ WKH FDWHJRULHV DUH VROHO\ LOOXVWUDWLYH QRW H[KDXVWLYH DQG WKH FRPSDULVRQ LV UHODWLYH QRW DEVROXWH QRU DUH WKH\ QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH $QG VRPH FDQ EH HDVLO\ UHFODVVLILHG HOVHZKHUH$VJHQHUDOLWLHVWKH\DOORZH[FHSWLRQV 6RXUFH)URP6HFRI)3+0,*6HHERRNIRUFLWDWLRQV
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
7DEOH7KH6DPHWKH1HEXODU+\SRWKHVLVDQG3ODQHWDU\ 0LJUDWLRQ BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 7KH)RUPDWLRQRI3URWRVWDUVDQG3URWRSODQHWDU\'LVNV ²([SURWRVWDUV ²([SURWRSODQHWDU\GLVNV 7KH)RUPDWLRQRI3ODQHWV ²([URFN\SODQHWV ²([JLDQWSODQHWV 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH1HEXODU+\SRWKHVLV ²)LUVWO\RQHPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVLVWKDWWKHLVVXH RI³VWLFNLQJ´WRJHWKHUDPQJGLIIHUHQWGXVWSDUWLFOHVLQWKHIRUPDWLRQ RISODQHWHVLPDOIRUPDWLRQUHPDLQVWREHH[SODLQHG ²6HFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV LV WKDW WKHQDWXUHRIDFFUHWLRQGLVNVUHPDLQVIDUIURPYHU\FOHDU ²7KLUGO\VWLOODQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVLVWKDW WKH LVVXH DERXW ZK\ VRPH VWDUV KDYH SODQHWV LQ WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI SODQHWHVLPDOVZKLOHRWKHUVGRQ¶W LVDOVRXQUHVROYHG ²)RXUWKO\ DQ DGGLWLRQDO PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV LV WKDW WKHUH LV DQ XQUHVROYHG SUREOHP DERXW WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI JLDQW SODQHWV ²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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6DPH6HGHQWDULQHVVLQ1DWXUHDQG%LUG0LJUDWLRQ BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 7KH0RWLYDWLRQVIRU%LUG0LJUDWLRQ ²([IRRG ²([EUHHGLQJ ²([ZHDWKHU (QGRJHQRXV)DFWRUV ²([WLPLQJ ²([RULHQWDWLRQDQGQDYLJDWLRQ ²([YDJUDQF\ ([RJHQRXV)DFWRUV ²([FOLPDWLFFKDQJHV ²([KXPDQDFWLYLWLHV ²([RWKHUV 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI6HGHQWDU\YV0LJUDWRU\%LUGV ²)LUVWO\ RQH PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ ELUGVLVWKDWWKHUHLVOLWWOHFRQVHQVXVRQZKDWWKHZRUG³PLJUDWLRQ´LV WRPHDQLQWKHVWXG\RIDQLPDOPLJUDWLRQ ²6HFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ELUGVLVWKDWLWLVQRWPXFKH[SODQDWRU\ ²7KLUGO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHGHQWDU\ YV PLJUDWRU\ELUGVLVWKDWKXPDQREVHUYDWLRQPD\EHELDVHG ²)RXUWKO\DQDGGLWLRQDO PDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIVHGHQWDU\YV PLJUDWRU\ ELUGV LV WKDW VRPH EDQGLQJ VWXGLHV DERXW ELUG PLJUDWLRQ WHQGWREHPLVOHDGLQJ ²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
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
7DEOH7KH6DPH6RFLRSROLWLFDO5HVWULFWLRQVDQG(PLJUDWLRQ BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB +LVWRULFDO([DPSOHVRI(PLJUDWLRQ5HVWULFWLRQV ²([³$IWHUWKH4LQJ(PSHURUEDQQHG+DQ&KLQHVHPLJUDWLRQ WR 0DQFKXULD ,Q WKH HPSHURU RUGHUHG FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH :LOORZ 3DOLVDGH D EDUULHU EH\RQG ZKLFK WKH &KLQHVH ZHUH SURKLELWHG IURP HQFURDFKLQJ RQ 0DQFKX DQG 0RQJRO ODQGV´ :. FF0(OOLRWW ²([³7KH6RYLHW6RFLDOLVW5HSXEOLFVRIWKH6RYLHW8QLRQEHJDQVXFK UHVWULFWLRQV LQ ZLWK ODZV DQG ERUGHUV WLJKWHQLQJ XQWLO HYHQ LOOHJDOHPLJUDWLRQZDVQHDUO\LPSRVVLEOHE\´:.FF$ 'RZW\ 5HDVRQVIRU(PLJUDWLRQ5HVWULFWLRQV ²([RSSRVLWLRQ ²([EUDLQGUDLQ ²([VHFUHF\ 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI(PLJUDWLRQ5HVWULFWLRQV ²)LUVWO\RQHPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKLVVWXG\RI(DVWHUQ%ORFHPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQVLVWKDWLWFDQEHTXLWHSROLWLFDOO\FKDUJHG ²6HFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKLV VWXG\ RI (DVWHUQ %ORF HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV LV WKDW LW GRHV QRW DGHTXDWHO\ FRQVLGHU WKH VXEYHUVLYH UROH RI WKH :HVW WR LQWHUIHUH LQWR WKH LQWHUQDO DIIDLUV RI WKH(DVWHUQ%ORFE\HQFRXUDJLQJHPLJUDWLRQ:.GG ²7KLUGO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKLV VWXG\ RI (DVWHUQ %ORF HPLJUDWLRQUHVWULFWLRQVLVWKDWLWGRHVQRWSD\PXFKDWWHQWLRQWRWKH UROH RI WKH :HVW DQG LWV DOOLHV WR RIILFLDOO\ UHZDUG ³GHIHFWLRQ´ HVSHFLDOO\E\WKRVHZKRKDYHYDOXDEOHVHFUHWLQIRWRVKDUH ²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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6DPH5DFLDO(WKQLF'LVFULPLQDWLRQDQG,PPLJUDWLRQ BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 0RWLYDWLRQVRIWKH6DPHWR5HVWULFW,PPLJUDWLRQ ²([QDWLRQDOVHFXULW\ ²([VSHFLDOLQWHUHVWJURXSV ²([[HQRSKRELD 7KH&DVHRI,PPLJUDWLRQ/LPLWDWLRQVLQWKH86 ²([EDVLFDLPV ²([EDVLFSURYLVLRQV ²([EDVLFGLVFULPLQDWLRQV 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI,PPLJUDWLRQ/LPLWDWLRQV ²)LUVWO\RQHPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKLVVWXG\RILPPLJUDWLRQOLPLWDWLRQVLV WKDWWKH6DPHFDQDOVRRIILFLDOO\HQFRXUDJHLPPLJUDWLRQWRR ²6HFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKLV VWXG\ RI LPPLJUDWLRQ OLPLWDWLRQVLVWKDWWKHLGHRORJLFDOFRYHUDJHRIWKHKLVWRULFDOGHEDWHLV UHODWLYHWRDSDUWLFXODUKLVWRULFDOHSRFK ²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
&KDSWHU7KH6DPHDQGLWV7ZR3ROHV
7DEOH7KH6DPH&XOWXUDO,QIOXHQFHDQG$VVLPLODWLRQLVP BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 7KHRUHWLFDO0RGHOVWR,PPLJUDQW$VVLPLODWLRQ ²([FRQYHUJHQFH ²([EDUULHUV ²([IUDJPHQWDWLRQ &RUH0HDVXUHPHQWVRI,PPLJUDQW$VVLPLODWLRQ ²([VRFLRHFRQRPLFVWDWXV ²([VSDWLDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQ ²([ODQJXDJHDWWDLQPHQW ²([LQWHUPDUULDJH 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI,PPLJUDQW$VVLPLODWLRQ ²)LUVWO\RQHPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RILPPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQLV WKDWWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHUHVHDUFKFDQEHPLVOHDGLQJ ²6HFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKLV VWXG\ RI WKH VWXG\ RI LPPLJUDQW DVVLPLODWLRQ LV WKDW WKH SROLF\ RI DVVLPLODWLRQ LV HVVHQWLDOO\EDGIRU³PLQRULW\DQGRULPPLJUDQWJURXSV´:. ²$QG WKLUGO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI LPPLJUDQW DVVLPLODWLRQ LV WKDW WKH OLVW RI ³PHDVXUDEOH DVSHFWV RI DVVLPLODWLRQ´ DVFLWHGLQWKHVWXG\LVLQFRPSOHWH BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 1RWHV 7KH H[DPSOHV DUH VROHO\ LOOXVWUDWLYH QRW H[KDXVWLYH DQG WKH FRPSDULVRQ LV UHODWLYH QRW DEVROXWH QRU DUH WKH\ QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH$QGVRPHFDQEHHDVLO\UHFODVVLILHGHOVHZKHUH$VJHQHUDOLWLHV WKH\DOORZH[FHSWLRQV 6RXUFH)URP6HFRI)3+0,*6HHERRNIRUFLWDWLRQV
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6DPHWKH'HFOLQHRI(PSLUHDQG0LJUDWLRQ3HULRG$UW BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 0LJUDWLRQ$UW ²([SRO\FKURPHVW\OH ²([DQLPDOVW\OH ,QVXODU$UW ²([LOOXPLQDWHGPDQXVFULSWV ²([PHWDOZRUNLQJ ²([VWRQHVFXOSWXUH 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRG$UW ²)LUVWO\ RQH PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW LV WKDWLWVRULJLQVDUHVWLOOVXEMHFWWRGHEDWH ²6HFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKLV VWXG\ RI 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUWLVWKDWPXFKRIWKHDUWPDGHE\RUJDQLFPDWHULDOVGLGQRWVXUYLYH VRDQDSSUHFLDWLRQRILWLVQRWSRVVLEOH ²7KLUGO\VWLOODQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRG DUW LV WKDW LW EHFRPHV PL[HG ZLWK &KULVWLDQ LQIOXHQFH VR WKDW D FRPSOHWHGHOLQHDWLRQRIWKH0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUWLVUDWKHUDUELWUDU\ ²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
3$577+5(( BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 7KH2WKHUV
&+$37(5 7+(27+(56$1'7+(,57:,1)$&(6 BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 8QGHU WKH GRFWULQH RI VWDWH PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP ZH KDYH HQFRXUDJHG GLIIHUHQWFXOWXUHVWROLYHVHSDUDWHOLYHV DSDUW IURP HDFK RWKHU DQG DSDUW IURP WKH PDLQVWUHDP :H¶YH IDLOHG WR SURYLGH D YLVLRQ RI VRFLHW\ WR ZKLFK WKH\ IHHOWKH\ ZDQWWREHORQJ:H¶YH HYHQ WROHUDWHG WKHVH VHJUHJDWHG FRPPXQLWLHV EHKDYLQJ LQ ZD\V WKDW UXQ FRPSOHWHO\ FRXQWHU WR RXU YDOXHV :KHQ D ZKLWH SHUVRQ KROGV REMHFWLRQDEOH YLHZV UDFLVW YLHZV IRU LQVWDQFH ZH ULJKWO\ FRQGHPQ WKHP %XW ZKHQ HTXDOO\ XQDFFHSWDEOH YLHZV RU SUDFWLFHV FRPH IURP VRPHRQH ZKR LVQ¶W ZKLWH ZH¶YH EHHQ WRR FDXWLRXV IUDQNO\²IUDQNO\ HYHQ IHDUIXO²WR VWDQGXSWRWKHP ²'DYLG&DPHURQ-6H[WRQ
7KH,QFOXVLYHQHVVRIWKH2WKHUV 7KH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ KDV PXFK WR GR ZLWK WKH 6DPH DQG WKH 2WKHUV²DVDOUHDG\GLVFXVVHGLQ6HF $V D UHFDS RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH 6DPH DQG WKH 2WKHUV IURP6HF WKUHHGLVWLQFWLYHIHDWXUHVQHHGWREHUHPHPEHUHG 7KHILUVWGLVWLQFWLYHIHDWXUHRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKH6DPHDQG WKH 2WKHUV²DV DOUHDG\ H[SODLQHG LQ )+& DQG VXPPDUL]HG LQ 6HF²LVWKDWWKH\DUHRIWHQSRZHUFRQWLQJHQWZKLFKFDQEH³DORQJWKH OLQH RI UDFH JHQGHU HWKQLFLW\ DJH UHOLJLRQ FODVV SROLWLFV QDWLRQVWDWHV DQGDQ\RWKHUSRZHUFDWHJRU\´ 7KHVHFRQGGLVWLQFWLYHIHDWXUHRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKH6DPH DQGWKH2WKHUVLVWKDW³KRZWKHWZRWHUPVDUHWREHXQGHUVWRRGGHSHQGVRQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WKHFRQWH[WLQTXHVWLRQ´IRUWKLVUHDVRQWKHZRUGV³DQGDQ\RWKHUSRZHU FDWHJRU\´DERYH DUHWRFDXWLRQXVDERXWWKHGLIIHUHQWQHZIRUPVRI³WKH 6DPH´DQG³WKH2WKHUV´LQGLIIHUHQWFRQWH[WV3%DRIX $QGWKHWKLUGGLVWLQFWLYHIHDWXUHRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKH6DPH DQGWKH2WKHUVLVWKDWDVDOUHDG\VWUHVVHGLQ6HFRI)&' ³>W@KH GLFKRWRP\ EHWZHHQ WKH 6DPH DQG WKH 2WKHUV LV«D JHQHULF LGHDO FRQVWUXFW ZLWK WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKDW LQ UHDO OLIH WKH\ FDQ EH EOXUUHG WR LQFOXGHGLIIHUHQWK\EULGIRUPV´ :LWKWKHVHGLVWLQWLYHIHDWXUHVRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVLQPLQG²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²WR EH DGGUHVVHG KHUHDIWHULQWKDWRUGHUDQGVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH
7KH2WKHUVDQGWKH0LQG 7KH 2WKHUV ZKHQ H[DPLQHG IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH PLQG FDQ UHYHDO VRPHWKLQJ DPD]LQJ DERXW WKHLU SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\RUXQGHVLUDELOLW\ DQGWKLVFDQEHVKRZQE\ZD\RIWZRFDVH VWXGLHVQDPHO\ WKH6DPHEUDLQJDLQDQGLPPLJUDWLRQDQG WKH6DPHUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQDQGHPLJUDWLRQ²WREHDGGUHVVHGLQZKDW IROORZVUHVSHFWLYHO\
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
7KH2WKHUV%UDLQ*DLQDQG,PPLJUDWLRQ $Q H[FHOOHQW ZD\ WR HYDOXDWH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ RI WKH 2WKHUV IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH PLQGLVWRH[SORUHWKH2WKHUVEUDLQJDLQDQGLPPLJUDWLRQ 7KHWHUP³EUDLQJDLQ´UHIHUVWRWKHLPPLJUDWLRQRI³PDQ\WUDLQHGDQG WDOHQWHGLQGLYLGXDOV´LQWRKRVWFRXQWULHVDQG³WKLVPD\FUHDWHDEUDLQGUDLQ LQWKHQDWLRQVWKDWWKHLQGLYLGXDOVDUHOHDYLQJ$&DQDGLDQV\PSRVLXPLQ WKHODWH1LQHWLHVJDYHFLUFXODWLRQWRWKHQHZWHUP>EUDLQJDLQ@LQUHVSRQVH WR&DQDGDOXULQJPRUHVNLOOHGSURIHVVLRQDOVWRWKHFRXQWU\WKDQLWDFWXDOO\ ORVW´:.OO ,QRWKHUZRUGV³EUDLQJDLQ´LQKRVWFRXQWULHVLVWKHRSSRVLWHRI³EUDLQ GUDLQ´ LQ KRPH FRXQWULHV VR RQH LV MXVW WKH PLUURU RI WKH RWKHU LQ WKH RSSRVLWHGLUHFWLRQDWWKHVDPHWLPH ,QWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH2WKHUVDQGWKH6DPHDVLQWURGXFHGLQ6HF WKH WHUP ³WKH 2WKHUV´ LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ UHIHUV WR WKRVH ZKR ZDQW WR LPPLJUDWHDQGWKHWHUP³WKH6DPH´UHIHUVWRWKRVHLQKRVWFRXQWULHVZKR ZHOFRPH WKHP DV ³EUDLQ JDLQ´ RU FRQYHUVHO\ WKRVH LQ KRPH FRXQWULHV ZKRWU\WRGLVFRXUDJHWKHPIURPOHDYLQJDV³EUDLQGUDLQ´ 0RWLYDWLRQVEHKLQG%UDLQ*DLQ 7KHUH DUH GLIIHUHQW UHDVRQV IRU ³WUDLQHG DQG WDOHQWHG LQGLYLGXDOV´ WR LPPLJUDWHLQWRKRVWFRXQWULHVDV³EUDLQJDLQ´DQGWRHPLJUDWHIURPKRPH FRXQWULHV DV ³EUDLQ GUDLQ´ DQG ³WKH UHDVRQV XVXDOO\ LQFOXGH WZR DVSHFWV ZKLFKUHVSHFWLYHO\FRPHIURPFRXQWULHVDQGLQGLYLGXDOV´DVVKRZQEHORZ DQGVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH :.OO ,Q WHUPV RI FRXQWULHV²³WKH UHDVRQV PD\ EH VRFLDO HQYLURQPHQW LQ VRXUFHFRXQWULHVODFNRIRSSRUWXQLWLHVSROLWLFDOLQVWDELOLW\HFRQRPLF GHSUHVVLRQ KHDOWK ULVNV HWF LQ KRVW FRXQWULHV ULFK RSSRUWXQLWLHV SROLWLFDO VWDELOLW\ DQG IUHHGRP GHYHORSHG HFRQRP\ EHWWHU OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQVHWF ´ ,QWHUPVRILQGLYLGXDOUHDVRQV²³WKHUHDUHIDPLO\LQIOXHQFHRYHUVHDV UHODWLYHV DQGSHUVRQDOSUHIHUHQFHSUHIHUHQFHIRUH[SORULQJDPELWLRQ IRUDQLPSURYHGFDUHHUHWF´ ,QJHQHUDO³EUDLQJDLQ´LVDJDLQIRUKRVWFRXQWULHVEXWDORVVRUDWOHDVW ³DQ HFRQRPLF FRVW´ IRU KRPH FRXQWULHV VLQFH ³HPLJUDQWV >IURP KRPH FRXQWULHV@ XVXDOO\ WDNH ZLWK WKHP WKH IUDFWLRQ RI YDOXH RI WKHLU WUDLQLQJ VSRQVRUHGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQWRURWKHURUJDQL]DWLRQV´DQGXVHWKHLUWUDLQLQJ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
IRU WKH EHQHILW RI WKH KRVW FRXQWULHV ZKHQ WKH\ DUULYH WKHUH DV LPPLJUDQWV 6RZKDWLVDEUDLQ JDLQLQDKRVWFRXQWU\FDQEHDEUDLQ ORVVLQD KRPHFRXQWU\DQG³EUDLQGUDLQ´FDQEHXQGHUVWRRGDV³DSDUDOOHORIFDSLWDO IOLJKWZKLFKUHIHUVWRWKHVDPHPRYHPHQWRIILQDQFLDOFDSLWDO%UDLQGUDLQ LV RIWHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK GHVNLOOLQJ RI HPLJUDQWV LQ WKHLU FRXQWU\ RI GHVWLQDWLRQZKLOHWKHLUFRXQWU\RIHPLJUDWLRQH[SHULHQFHVWKHGUDLQLQJRI VNLOOHGLQGLYLGXDOV´:.OO +LVWRULFDO([DPSOHVRI%UDLQ*DLQ 7KHUH DUH SOHQW\ RI KLVWRULFDO H[DPSOHV RI EUDLQ JDLQ IURP WKH YDQWDJHSRLQWRIKRVWFRXQWULHV RUEUDLQGUDLQIURPWKHYDQWDJHSRLQWRI KRPH FRXQWULHV )RU LOOXVWUDWLRQ FRQVLGHU D IHZ ZHOONQRZQ H[DPSOHV EHORZDVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH D 1HRSODWRQLF$FDGHP\3KLORVRSKHUV 7KHILUVWH[DPSOHRIEUDLQJDLQRUEUDLQGUDLQ WREHFRQVLGHUHGKHUH FRQFHUQV³1HRSODWRQLF$FDGHP\SKLORVRSKHUV´ ,QDQWLTXLW\³DIWHU-XVWLQLDQFORVHG$FDGHP\LQ$'DFFRUGLQJWR WKHKLVWRULDQ$JDWKLDVLWVUHPDLQLQJPHPEHUVORRNHGIRUSURWHFWLRQXQGHU WKHUXOHRI6DVVDQLGNLQJ.KRVUDX,FDUU\LQJZLWKWKHPSUHFLRXVVFUROOVRI OLWHUDWXUHDQGSKLORVRSK\DQGWRDOHVVHUGHJUHHRIVFLHQFH$IWHUDSHDFH WUHDW\ EHWZHHQ WKH 3HUVLDQ DQG WKH %\]DQWLQH HPSLUH LQ JXDUDQWHHG WKHLUSHUVRQDOVHFXULW\VRPHPHPEHUVRILWIRXQGVDQFWXDU\LQ WKHSDJDQ VWURQJKROGRI+DUUDQQHDU(GHVVD´:.OO $Q LPSRUWDQW KLVWRULFDO FRQVHTXHQFH KHUH LV WKDW ³RQH RI WKH ODVW OHDGLQJILJXUHVRIWKLVJURXSZDV6LPSOLFLXVDSXSLORI'DPDVFLXVWKHODVW KHDGRIWKH$WKHQLDQVFKRRO)URPWKHUHWKHVWXGHQWVRIDQ$FDGHP\LQ H[LOHFRXOGKDYHVXUYLYHGLQWRWKHWKFHQWXU\ORQJHQRXJKWRIDFLOLWDWHWKH $UDELF UHYLYDO RI WKH 1HRSODWRQLVW FRPPHQWDU\ WUDGLWLRQ LQ %DJKGDG´ :.OO56RUDEML E 6SDQLVK([SXOVLRQRI-HZVDQG0RRUV 7KH VHFRQG H[DPSOH RI EUDLQ JDLQ RU EUDLQ GUDLQ WR EH FRQVLGHUHG KHUHFRQFHUQVWKH³6SDQLVKH[SXOVLRQRI-HZVDQG0RRUV´ ,QODWHWKFHQWXU\³DIWHUWKHHQGRIWKH&DWKROLFUHFRQTXHVWRI6SDLQ WKH&DWKROLF0RQDUFKVSXUVXHGDUHOLJLRXVO\XQLIRUPNLQJGRP-HZVZHUH H[SHOOHGIURPWKHFRXQWU\LQ$VWKH\GRPLQDWHGILQDQFLDOVHUYLFHVLQ WKHFRXQWU\WKHLUH[SXOVLRQ ZDVLQVWUXPHQWDOLQFDXVLQJ IXWXUHHFRQRPLF SUREOHPV VXFK DV WKH QHHG RI IRUHLJQ EDQNHUV >OLNH@ WKH )XJJHU IDPLO\«2Q -DQXDU\ WKH .LQJ RUGHUHG WKH H[SXOVLRQ RI DOO WKH -HZV IURP 6SDLQ²IURP WKH NLQJGRPV RI &DVWLOH &DWDORQLD $UDJRQ
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
*DOLFLD 0DMRUFD 0LQRUFD WKH %DVTXH SURYLQFHV WKH LVODQGV RI 6DUGLQLD DQG 6LFLO\ DQG WKH NLQJGRP RI 9DOHQFLD %HIRUH WKDW WKH 4XHHQ KDG H[SHOOHGWKHPIURPWKHNLQJGRPRI$QGDOXVLD´:.OO)25' ,QDGGLWLRQ³WKHZDUDJDLQVW7XUNVDQG1RUWK$IULFDQ0RRUVDIIHFWHG LQWHUQDO SROLF\ LQ WKH XSULVLQJ RI WKH $OSXMDUUDV ± DQG PRWLYDWHG WKH ([SXOVLRQ RI WKH 0RULVFRV LQ 'HVSLWH EHLQJ GHPRJUDSKLFDOO\DPLQRULW\WKH\ZHUHDNH\SDUWRIWKHIDUPLQJVHFWRUDQG WUDLQHGDUWLVDQV7KHLUGHSDUWXUHFRQWULEXWHGWRHFRQRPLFGHFOLQHLQVRPH UHJLRQV RI 6SDLQ 7KLV ZD\ WKH FRQVHUYDWLYH DULVWRFUDF\ LQFUHDVHG LWV SRZHURYHUHFRQRPLFDOO\GHYHORSHGSURYLQFHV´:.OO F +XJXHQRW([RGXVIURP)UDQFHWK&HQWXU\ 7KHWKLUGH[DPSOHRIEUDLQJDLQRUEUDLQGUDLQ WREHFRQVLGHUHGKHUH FRQFHUQV³+XJXHQRWH[RGXVIURP)UDQFHWKFHQWXU\ ´ ,Q IRU H[DPSOH ³/RXLV ;,9 UHYRNHG WKH (GLFW RI 1DQWHV DQG GHFODUHG 3URWHVWDQWLVP WR EH LOOHJDO LQ WKH (GLFW RI )RQWDLQHEOHDX $IWHU WKLV +XJXHQRWV ZLWK HVWLPDWHV UDQJLQJ IURP WR IOHG WR VXUURXQGLQJ 3URWHVWDQW FRXQWULHV (QJODQG WKH 1HWKHUODQGV 6ZLW]HUODQG 1RUZD\ 'HQPDUN DQG 3UXVVLD²ZKRVH &DOYLQLVW *UHDW (OHFWRU)UHGHULFN:LOOLDPZHOFRPHGWKHPWRKHOSUHEXLOGKLVZDUUDYDJHG DQGXQGHUSRSXODWHGFRXQWU\0DQ\ZHQWWRWKH'XWFKFRORQ\DWWKH&DSH 6RXWK $IULFD ZKHUH WKH\ ZHUH LQVWUXPHQWDO LQ HVWDEOLVKLQJ D ZLQH LQGXVWU\ *XVWDY DQG 3HWHU &DUO )DEHUJp WKH GHVFHQGDQWV RI +XJXHQRW UHIXJHHV IRXQGHG WKH ZRUOG IDPRXV )DEHUJp FRPSDQ\ LQ 5XVVLD´ :. OO 6RPHRWKHUVKRZHYHU³ZHQWWRWKHQHZO\HVWDEOLVKHG%ULWLVKFRORQLHV LQ 1RUWK $PHULFD 7KH\ DQG WKHLU GHVFHQGDQWV ZHUH LQVWUXPHQWDO LQ WKH JURZWK RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 5HYROXWLRQDU\ OHDGHUV -RKQ 6HYLHU )UDQFLV 0DULRQ DQG 3DXO 5HYHUH ZHUH GHVFHQGDQWV RI +XJXHQRW UHIXJHHV 6HYHQ RWKHU 86 SUHVLGHQWV KDYH GRFXPHQWHG +XJXHQRW DQFHVWRUV *HRUJH :DVKLQJWRQ 8O\VVHV 6 *UDQW 7KHRGRUH 5RRVHYHOW :LOOLDP 7DIW +DUU\ 7UXPDQ*HUDOG)RUGDQG/\QGRQ-RKQVRQ´:.OO 7KLV H[RGXV ZDV D EUDLQ GUDLQ LQ )UDQFH DQG D EUDLQ JDLQ LQ KRVW FRXQWULHVEHFDXVH³WKHH[RGXVRI+XJXHQRWVIURP)UDQFHFUHDWHGDEUDLQ GUDLQ DV +XJXHQRWV DFFRXQWHG IRU D GLVSURSRUWLRQDWH QXPEHU RI HQWUHSUHQHXULDODUWLVDQDQGWHFKQLFDORFFXSDWLRQVLQWKHFRXQWU\7KHORVV RI WKLV WHFKQLFDO H[SHUWLVH ZDV D EORZ IURP ZKLFK WKH NLQJGRP GLG QRW IXOO\UHFRYHUIRUPDQ\\HDUV´:.OO G $QWL6HPLWLVPLQ3UH::,,(XURSH± 7KH IRXUWK H[DPSOH RI EUDLQ JDLQ RU EUDLQ GUDLQ WR EH FRQVLGHUHG KHUHFRQFHUQV³DQWL6HPLWLVPLQSUH::,,(XURSH ´
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
,QWKH ILUVW KDOIRIWKHWKFHQWXU\ ³DQWLVHPLWLF IHHOLQJVDQGODZVLQ (XURSHWKURXJKWKHVDQGVFXOPLQDWLQJLQWKH+RORFDXVWFDXVHG WKHHPLJUDWLRQRI PDQ\VFLHQWLVWVWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV1RWDEOHH[DPSOHV DUH$OEHUW(LQVWHLQHPLJUDWHGSHUPDQHQWO\WRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVLQ (QULFR)HUPLWKRXJKQRW-HZLVKKLPVHOIKLVZLIH/DXUDZDV 1LHOV %RKU KLV PRWKHU ZDV -HZLVK 7KHRGRUH YRQ .DUPDQ -RKQ YRQ 1HXPDQQDQGPDQ\RWKHUV´:.OO )XUWKHUPRUH³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´ :.OO H (DVWHUQ%ORF%UDLQ'UDLQ&ULVLV 7KHILIWKH[DPSOHRIEUDLQJDLQRUEUDLQGUDLQ WREHFRQVLGHUHGKHUH FRQFHUQV³(DVWHUQ%ORFEUDLQGUDLQFULVLV ´ )RU H[DPSOH ³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´:.OO$'RZW\)7KDFNHUD\ 7KLVEUDLQGUDLQLQ(DVW*HUPDQ\DQGEUDLQJDLQLQ:HVW*HUPDQ\ ZHUHVHULRXVHQRXJKVLQFHLQDFFRUGDQFHWRDQHVWLPDWH³WKHPLOOLRQ (DVW *HUPDQV FDOOHG 5HSXEOLNIOFKWOLQJH WKDW KDG OHIW E\ WRWDOHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RI WKH HQWLUH (DVW *HUPDQ SRSXODWLRQ«7KH GLUHFW
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
FRVWRI ODERXUIRUFHORVVHVKDVEHHQHVWLPDWHGDWELOOLRQWRELOOLRQ ZLWK (DVW *HUPDQ SDUW\ OHDGHU :DOWHU 8OEULFKW ODWHU FODLPLQJ WKDW :HVW *HUPDQ\RZHGKLPELOOLRQLQFRPSHQVDWLRQLQFOXGLQJUHSDUDWLRQVDV ZHOODVODERXUIRUFHORVVHV,QDGGLWLRQWKHGUDLQRI(DVW*HUPDQ\ V\RXQJ SRSXODWLRQ SRWHQWLDOO\ FRVW LW RYHU ELOOLRQ PDUNV LQ ORVW HGXFDWLRQDO LQYHVWPHQW,Q $XJXVW(DVW*HUPDQ\HUHFWHGDEDUEHGZLUHEDUULHU WKDW ZRXOG HYHQWXDOO\ EH H[SDQGHG E\ FRQVWUXFWLRQ LQWR WKH %HUOLQ :DOO HIIHFWLYHO\FORVLQJWKHORRSKROH´:.OO53HDUVRQ$'RZW\ 9%HUJKDKQ I &RQWHPSRUDU\&KLQD $QGWKHVL[WKH[DPSOHRIEUDLQJDLQRUEUDLQGUDLQ WREHFRQVLGHUHG KHUHFRQFHUQVFRQWHPSRUDU\&KLQDLQRXUWLPH )RUH[DPSOH³&KLQDLVQRZDULVLQJVWDULQWKHZRUOGVWDJH:LWKWKH UDSLGJURZWKRI*'3DQGWKHKLJKHUGHJUHHRIRSHQQHVVWRZDUGVWKHUHVWRI WKHZRUOGKRZHYHUWKHEUDLQGUDLQLVLQFUHDVLQJO\VHULRXV´DQG³WKHUHLV QR GHQ\LQJ WKH XSVXUJH LQ &KLQHVH HPLJUDWLRQ WR :HVWHUQ FRXQWULHV² SDUWLFXODUO\ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV &DQDGD DQG $XVWUDOLD²VLQFH WKH PLGILUVW GHFDGHRIWKHVWFHQWXU\´:.OO:/DP ,Q IDFW ³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´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³LQ $IULFDQ FRXQWULHV WKH KHDOWK V\VWHPV KDYH EHHQ VHYHUHO\DIIHFWHGE\EUDLQGUDLQVRYDULRXVPHDVXUHVKDYHEHHQVXJJHVWHG
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
DQGWULHGWROLPLWWKHPLJUDWLRQRIKHDOWKZRUNHUVWRULFKFRXQWULHV«&KLQD WULHV WR FUHDWH D QRUPDO DQG IUHH DWPRVSKHUH DQG PHFKDQLVP WKDW ZRXOG KHOS WDOHQWV IORXULVK«*HUPDQ\ HVWDEOLVKHG D JRYHUQPHQW IXQGHG LQLWLDWLYHFDOOHG*$,1WRDVVLVW*HUPDQVZRUNLQJDEURDGWRUHWXUQWRWKHLU KRPHFRXQWU\2WKHUFRXQWULHV6ZLW]HUODQG$XVWULD)UDQFH KDYHVLPLODU LQLWLDWLYHV´:.OO-/LQ 6HFRQGO\DQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIEUDLQJDLQIURPWKH YDQWDJHSRLQWRIKRVWFRXQWULHV RUEUDLQGUDLQIURPWKHYDQWDJHSRLQWRI KRPH FRXQWULHV LV WKDW WKRVH ZKR LPPLJUDWH WR KRVW FRXQWULHV DV EUDLQ JDLQ PD\ UHWXUQ WR KRPH FRXQWULHV RYHU WLPH 7KLV PHDQV WKDW ³EUDLQ GUDLQ´FDQDOVROHDGWR³EUDLQFLUFXODWLRQ´ZKHQ³VRPHPLJUDQWVGRUHWXUQ WR WKHLU KRPH FRXQWULHV RU EHFRPH WUDQVQDWLRQDO ZLWK KRPHV LQ GLIIHUHQW FRXQWULHV´:.OO-6SULQJ )RU LQVWDQFH ³LQ ,QGLD DOWKRXJK VXIIHULQJ VHYHUH EUDLQ GUDLQ HYHU\ \HDU WKH ,QGLDQ JRYHUQPHQW KDV QRW DGRSWHG VWULFW SROLFLHV EHFDXVH WKH\ EHOLHYHWKDWWKHRYHUVHDVWDOHQWZLOOHYHQWXDOO\FRQWULEXWHWRWKHQDWLRQLQ WKH IXWXUH´ :. OO $QG ³&KLQD V UDSLG HFRQRPLF JURZWK KDV VHHQ WKH QXPEHU RI &KLQHVH UHWXUQLQJ IURP RYHUVHDV JURZ LQ UHFHQW \HDUV VWDUWLQJDQHZFKDSWHULQWKHLUOLYHVDVZHOODVWKHFRXQWU\ VKLVWRU\«7KH QXPEHURIRYHUVHDVUHWXUQHG&KLQHVHH[FHHGHGIRUWKHILUVWWLPH LQ$ERXWSHUFHQWRIWKHUHVHDUFKHUVLQWKH&KLQHVH$FDGHP\RI 6FLHQFHV SHUFHQW RI WKH DFDGHPLFV LQ WKH &KLQHVH $FDGHP\ RI (QJLQHHULQJDQGSHUFHQWRIWKHFKLHIVFLHQWLVWVLQSURJUDPVVWXGLHG DEURDGDQGUHWXUQHGKRPHWRPDNHJUHDWFRQWULEXWLRQVLQWKHLUILHOGV´- /LQ 7KLUGO\ VWLOODQRWKHU PDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKH VWXG\RIEUDLQ JDLQIURP WKHYDQWDJHSRLQWRIKRVWFRXQWULHV RUEUDLQGUDLQIURPWKHYDQWDJHSRLQW RI KRPH FRXQWULHV LV WKDW EUDLQ JDLQ LQ KRVW FRXQWULHV FDQ DOVR EULQJ EHQHILWVWRKRPHFRXQWULHV )RULQVWDQFH³UHPLWWDQFHVDUHSOD\LQJDQLQFUHDVLQJO\ODUJHUROHLQWKH HFRQRPLHVRIPDQ\FRXQWULHVFRQWULEXWLQJWRHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGWRWKH OLYHOLKRRGV RI OHVV SURVSHURXV SHRSOH«$FFRUGLQJ WR :RUOG %DQN HVWLPDWHVUHPLWWDQFHVWRWDOHG86ELOOLRQLQRIZKLFK86 ELOOLRQ ZHQW WR GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV WKDW LQYROYHG PLOOLRQ PLJUDQW ZRUNHUV )RU VRPH LQGLYLGXDO UHFLSLHQW FRXQWULHV UHPLWWDQFHV FDQ EH DV KLJKDVDWKLUGRIWKHLU*'3«7KHWRSUHFLSLHQWVLQWHUPVRIWKHVKDUHRI UHPLWWDQFHVLQ*'3LQFOXGHGPDQ\VPDOOHUHFRQRPLHV VXFKDV7DMLNLVWDQ 0ROGRYD DQG +RQGXUDV ´ :. PP :25 -*DJQRQ $QGIRXUWKO\DQDGGLWLRQDOPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIEUDLQJDLQ IURPWKHYDQWDJHSRLQWRIKRVWFRXQWULHV RUEUDLQGUDLQIURPWKHYDQWDJH
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
SRLQW RI KRPH FRXQWULHV LV WKDW EUDLQ JDLQ GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ EULQJ EHQHILWVWRKRVWFRXQWULHV )RUH[DPSOH³EUDLQJDLQ´FDQDOVROHDGWR³EUDLQZDVWH´DVVKRZQLQ WKHFDVHWKDW³VRPHWLPHVPLJUDQWVWRRWKHUFRXQWULHVRUXUEDQDUHDVDUHQRW DEOH WR REWDLQ HPSOR\PHQW FRPPHQVXUDWH ZLWK WKHLU HGXFDWLRQDO TXDOLILFDWLRQV7KLVLVFDOOHGEUDLQZDVWH$QH[DPSOHZRXOGEHD1LJHULDQ GRFWRUZKRLPPLJUDWHVWR(XURSHEXWZRUNVLQWKHVHUYLFHLQGXVWU\´:. OO $QRWKHUJRRGH[DPSOHFRQFHUQVWKH IDLOXUHRI³PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP´DV WKH %ULWLVK SULPH PLQLVWHU 'DYLG &DPHURQ EOXQWO\ SXW LW LQ WKH SURMHFW RI ³PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP´ WR DFFRPPRGDWH LPPLJUDQWV LQ KRVW FRXQWULHVKDVQRWUHDOO\ZRUNHGZHOODQGEURXJKWVRFLDOSUREOHPV³8QGHU WKH GRFWULQH RI VWDWH PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP ZH KDYH HQFRXUDJHG GLIIHUHQW FXOWXUHV WR OLYH VHSDUDWH OLYHV DSDUW IURP HDFK RWKHU DQG DSDUW IURP WKH PDLQVWUHDP:H¶YHIDLOHGWRSURYLGHDYLVLRQRIVRFLHW\WRZKLFKWKH\IHHO WKH\ZDQWWREHORQJ:H¶YHHYHQWROHUDWHGWKHVHVHJUHJDWHGFRPPXQLWLHV EHKDYLQJLQZD\VWKDWUXQFRPSOHWHO\FRXQWHUWRRXUYDOXHV:KHQDZKLWH SHUVRQ KROGV REMHFWLRQDEOH YLHZV UDFLVW YLHZV IRU LQVWDQFH ZH ULJKWO\ FRQGHPQ WKHP%XW ZKHQHTXDOO\XQDFFHSWDEOHYLHZVRUSUDFWLFHVFRPH IURPVRPHRQHZKRLVQ¶WZKLWHZH¶YHEHHQWRRFDXWLRXVIUDQNO\²IUDQNO\ HYHQIHDUIXO²WRVWDQGXSWRWKHP´-6H[WRQ )UHQFK 3UHVLGHQW 1LFRODV 6DUNR]\ PDGH D FRPSDUDEOH FULWLFDO SRLQW DERXWPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPGXULQJDWHOHYLVLRQLQWHUYLHZLQ³,I\RXFRPH WR )UDQFH \RX DFFHSW WR PHOW LQWR D VLQJOH FRPPXQLW\ ZKLFK LV WKH QDWLRQDOFRPPXQLW\DQGLI\RXGRQRWZDQWWRDFFHSWWKDW\RXFDQQRWEH ZHOFRPHLQ)UDQFH´-6H[WRQ (YHQ *HUPDQ &KDQFHOORU $QJHOD 0HUNHO VKDUHG WKLV FULWLFDO VHQWLPHQWZKHQVKHVDLGLQ³:HIHHOWLHGWR&KULVWLDQYDOXHV7KRVH ZKRGRQ¶WDFFHSWWKHPGRQ¶WKDYHDSODFHKHUH´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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
SULQFLSOH WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH H[SOLFDELOLW\ LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH ILQLWHQHVV WUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH VLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH RSHQQHVVKLGGHQQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH GHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH FKDQJHFRQVWDQF\ SULQFLSOH WKH RUGHUFKDRV SULQFLSOH WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH H[SDQVLRQ FRQWUDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH WKH FRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\ SULQFLSOH WKH HYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH WKH V\PPHWU\ DV\PPHWU\ SULQFLSOH WKH VRIWQHVVKDUGQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH VHULRXVQHVV SOD\IXOQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH UHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQ SULQFLSOH WKH VDPH GLIIHUHQFHSULQFLSOHDQGWKHVWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQSULQFLSOH )RU LQVWDQFH LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH IRUPDOQHVVLQIRUPDOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUHLVIRUPDOQHVVHJWKHIRUPDOORJLFDOUHTXLUHPHQWRIVRXQGQHVVDQG FRPSOHWHQHVVLQDV\VWHPRILGHDVDVLQWKHVWXG\RIEUDLQJDLQ WKHUHLV LQIRUPDOQHVV HJ WKH QRQIRUPDO H[LVWHQFH RI XQVRXQGQHVV DQG LQFRPSOHWHQHVVLQWKHVWXG\RIEUDLQJDLQDVVKRZQLQWKHFULWLFLVPVWKDW EUDLQJDLQGRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\EULQJEHQHILWVWRKRVWFRXQWULHVWKDWEUDLQ JDLQLQKRVWFRXQWULHVFDQDOVREULQJEHQHILWVWRKRPHFRXQWULHVHWF $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH DEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV DEVROXWHQHVV HJ WKH DEVROXWH YLHZ RI (DVW *HUPDQ\ DERXW WKH EUDLQ GUDLQFULVLVLQWKHVLQWKDW³WKHGLUHFWFRVWRIODERXUIRUFHORVVHVKDV EHHQHVWLPDWHGDWELOOLRQWRELOOLRQ ZLWK(DVW*HUPDQSDUW\OHDGHU :DOWHU8OEULFKWODWHUFODLPLQJWKDW:HVW*HUPDQ\RZHGKLPELOOLRQLQ FRPSHQVDWLRQ´ WKHUH LV UHODWLYHQHVV HJ ZKDW LV FRVWO\ IRU (DVW *HUPDQ\ DERXW WKH EUDLQ GUDLQ FULVLV LQ WKH V LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ XQGHVLUDEOHIRU:HVW*HUPDQ\ZKLFKUHFHLYHGWKHEHQHILWVRI³EUDLQJDLQ´ LQVWHDG $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVSDUWLDOLW\HJ WKHSDUWLDOYLHZRI:HVW*HUPDQ\LQUHJDUGWRWKH³EUDLQJDLQ´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³+XJXHQRWV«ZLWK HVWLPDWHV UDQJLQJ IURP WR «IOHG WR VXUURXQGLQJ 3URWHVWDQW FRXQWULHV (QJODQG WKH
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
1HWKHUODQGV 6ZLW]HUODQG 1RUZD\ 'HQPDUN DQG 3UXVVLD´ WKHUH LV XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ HJ WKH PRUH GLIILFXOW WDVN IRU WKRVH LQ VXSSRUW RI WKH UHLJQ RI /RXLV ;,9 LQ ODWH WK FHQWXU\ WR SUHGLFW H[DFWO\ WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKH H[RGXV RI +XJXHQRWV FRXOG FRVW )UDQFH GHDUO\ LQ WHUPV RI D ³EUDLQGUDLQ´VLQFHDVKLVWRU\WXUQHGRXW³WKHH[RGXVRI+XJXHQRWVIURP )UDQFHFUHDWHGDEUDLQGUDLQDV+XJXHQRWVDFFRXQWHGIRUDGLVSURSRUWLRQDWH QXPEHU RI HQWUHSUHQHXULDO DUWLVDQ DQG WHFKQLFDO RFFXSDWLRQV LQ WKH FRXQWU\´ VR ³WKH ORVV RI WKLV WHFKQLFDO H[SHUWLVH ZDV D EORZ IURP ZKLFK WKH NLQJGRP GLG QRW IXOO\ UHFRYHU IRU PDQ\ \HDUV´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³WZR DVSHFWV ZKLFK UHVSHFWLYHO\ FRPH IURP FRXQWULHV DQG LQGLYLGXDOV´ LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG WKHUH LV WUDQVILQLWHQHVV HJ WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDOV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKR KDYH IOHG WKHLU KRPHFRXQWULHVDQGLPPLJUDWHGWRKRVWFRXQWULHVRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH³WZR DVSHFWV ZKLFK UHVSHFWLYHO\ FRPH IURP FRXQWULHV DQG LQGLYLGXDOV´ LQ WKH DUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHG $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHFLVHQHVVHJWKHSUHFLVHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWLQGLYLGXDOUHDVRQV WR LPPLJUDWH OLNH ³RYHUVHDV UHODWLYHV´ ³SUHIHUHQFH IRU H[SORULQJ´ DQG ³DPELWLRQ IRU DQ LPSURYHG FDUHHU´ LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG WKHUH LV YDJXHQHVV HJ WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKHVH LQGLYLGXDO UHDVRQVWRLPPLJUDWHOLNH³RYHUVHDVUHODWLYHV´³SUHIHUHQFHIRUH[SORULQJ´ DQG³DPELWLRQIRUDQLPSURYHGFDUHHU´LQWKHDUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGVLQFHLWLV
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
QRWFOHDUZK\WKHUHPXVWEHWKHVHVSHFLILFWKUHHUHDVRQVQRWDQG PDQ\RWKHUVLQVWHDG $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VLPSOHQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI EUDLQ JDLQ E\ WKH DGYRFDWHV WKHUHLVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVVHJWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUHFRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLV RI EUDLQ JDLQ E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFVDVFLWHG $QGWKHUHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHRSHQQHVVKLGGHQQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUH LVRSHQQHVV HJWKHRSHQH[SORUDWLRQRI³DQWL6HPLWLVPLQSUH::,,(XURSH´LQWKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG WKHUH LV KLGGHQQHVV HJ WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH GLVFRXUVH RQ ³DQWL6HPLWLVP LQ SUH::,, (XURSH´ LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG EHFDXVH LW LJQRUHG RWKHU IDFWRUV E\ -HZV WKHPVHOYHV ZKLFK FRQWULEXWHG WR DQWLVHPLWLVP OLNH WKH -HZLVK HFRQRPLF H[SORLWDWLRQ RI &KULVWLDQVE\ZD\RIXVXU\IRUFHQWXULHVWKH-HZLVKGLVFULPLDWLRQDJDLQVW JHQWLOHV WKHLU H[FOXVLYH HQGRJDPLF UHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWK WKHPVHOYHV RQO\ HWF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHGHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVGHQVHQHVV HJWKHUHODWLYHO\GHQVHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWK³EHQHILWV´E\D KRVWFRXQWU\ZKLFKWDNHVDGYDQWDJHRID³EUDLQJDLQ´ WKHUHLVHPSWLQHVV HJWKHUHODWLYHO\OHVVGHQVHRU PRUHHPSW\FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQV ZLWK ³EHQHILWV´ E\ D KRPH FRXQWU\ ZKLFK VXIIHUV IURP D ³EUDLQ GUDLQ´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFKDQJHFRQVWDQF\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFKDQJHHJ WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR VWXG\ PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI EUDLQ JDLQ WKHUH LV FRQVWDQF\ HJ WKH HYHU FRQVWDQW H[LVWHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW SUREOHPV ZLWK WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR VWXG\ PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPVZLWKWKHVWXG\RIEUDLQJDLQSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFV $QGWKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHRUGHUFKDRVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVRUGHUHJWKHPRUH RUOHVVRUGHUO\DSSHDUDQFHRIWKH+XJXHQRWH[RGXVIURP)UDQFHLQWKHWK FHQWXU\ LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI ³3UXVVLD²ZKRVH &DOYLQLVW *UHDW(OHFWRU)UHGHULFN:LOOLDPZHOFRPHGWKHPWRKHOSUHEXLOGKLVZDU UDYDJHG DQG XQGHUSRSXODWHG FRXQWU\´ WKHUH LV FKDRV HJ WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF DSSHDUDQFH RI WKH +XJXHQRW H[RGXV IURP )UDQFH LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\ LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI WKHLU ZDQGHULQJ JOREDO RG\VVH\ZKHQWKH\³ZLWKHVWLPDWHVUDQJLQJIURPWR´ IOHG WR GLIIHUHQW SODFHV OLNH ³(QJODQG WKH 1HWKHUODQGV 6ZLW]HUODQG 1RUZD\'HQPDUNDQG3UXVVLD´³WKH'XWFKFRORQ\DWWKH&DSH´LQ6RXWK $IULFD³WKHQHZO\HVWDEOLVKHG%ULWLVKFRORQLHVLQ1RUWK$PHULFD´DQGVR RQ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
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³(QJODQG WKH 1HWKHUODQGV 6ZLW]HUODQG 1RUZD\'HQPDUNDQG3UXVVLD´³WKH'XWFKFRORQ\DWWKH&DSH´LQ6RXWK $IULFD³WKHQHZO\HVWDEOLVKHG%ULWLVKFRORQLHVLQ1RUWK$PHULFD´DQGVR RQ WKHUH LV FRQWUDFWLRQ HJ WKH UHODWLYH GHFOLQH RI WKH +XJXHQRWV LQ )UDQFHLQWKHWKFHQWXU\ZKHQ³/RXLV;,9UHYRNHGWKH(GLFWRI1DQWHV DQG GHFODUHG 3URWHVWDQWLVP WR EH LOOHJDO LQ WKH (GLFW RI )RQWDLQHEOHDX´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV WKHRU\ HJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³FDSLWDO IOLJKW´ LQ HFRQRPLFV WKHUH LV SUD[LV HJWKHSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRI³FDSLWDOIOLJKW´LQHFRQRPLFVWRWKHILHOG RI PLJUDWLRQ OLNH ³KXPDQ FDSWLDO IOLJKW´ WR UHIHU WR ³EUDLQ GUDLQ´ :. OO $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFRQYHQWLRQ HJ WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW ³EUDLQ JDLQ´ WR ZHOFRPH VNLOOHG LPPLJUDQWVWRKRVWFRXQWULHV WKHUHLVQRYHOW\HJWKHDOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW ³EUDLQ JDLQ´ WR ZHOFRPH VNLOOHGLPPLJUDQWVWRKRVWFRXQWULHVE\WKHQHZLGHDRIVRPHFULWLFVOLNH )UHQFK3UHVLGHQW1LFRODV6DUNR]\ZKRVDLGWKDW³LI\RXFRPHWR)UDQFH \RX DFFHSW WR PHOW LQWR D VLQJOH FRPPXQLW\ ZKLFK LV WKH QDWLRQDO FRPPXQLW\DQGLI\RXGRQRWZDQWWRDFFHSWWKDW\RXFDQQRWEHZHOFRPH LQ)UDQFH´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH HYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV HYROXWLRQ HJ WKH QDWXUDO HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQV WR PRYH DURXQG LQ WKH VWDWHRIQDWXUHDOEHLWLQDSULPLWLYHZD\ WKHUHLVWUDQVIRUPDWLRQHJWKH WHFKQLFDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIKXPDQDELOLW\WRPRYHDURXQGE\WKHLQYHQWLRQ RI ³EUDLQ GUDLQ´ DQG ³EUDLQ JDLQ´ QRZDGD\V $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVV\PPHWU\ HJ WKH FRH[LVWHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW DFWRUV LQ VRFLHW\ WKHUH LV DV\PPHWU\ HJLQ/RXLV;,9XVHGKLVSRZHUWR³UHYRNH«WKH(GLFWRI1DQWHV DQG GHFODUHG 3URWHVWDQWLVP WR EH LOOHJDO LQ WKH (GLFW RI )RQWDLQHEOHDX´ ZKLFKOHGWRWKH+XJXHQRWH[RGXVIURP)UDQFHLQWKHWKFHQWXU\´ $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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³WKH\ ZHUHOHDYLQJIRUHFRQRPLF UHDVRQV´ EXW ³WHVWLPRQ\ IURP UHIXJHHV LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH UHDVRQV ZHUH PRUH SROLWLFDO WKDQ PDWHULDO´ :. OO + +DUULVRQ $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH UHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV UHJUHVVLRQHJWKHUHJUHVVLRQPDGHE\/RXLV;,9EHFDXVHKLVH[SXOVLRQ RI WKH +XJXHQRWV IURP )UDQFH LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\ OHG WR DQ HFRQRPLF ³EORZ IURP ZKLFK WKH NLQJGRP GLG QRW IXOO\ UHFRYHU IRU PDQ\ \HDUV´ WKHUH LV SURJUHVVLRQ HJ WKH SURJUHVV PDGH E\ /RXLV ;,9 LQ DV VKRZQ LQ KLV VXFFHVV WR PDNH 3URWHVWDQWLVP ³LOOHJDO LQ WKH (GLFW RI )RQWDLQHEOHDX´ VR DV WR IDYRU WKH &DWKROLFV $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VDPHGLIIHUHQFH SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VLPLODULW\ LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV UHJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ ZD\ RI HPLJUDWLRQUHVWULFWLRQVOLNHWKRVHLQWKH(DVWHUQ%ORFDIWHUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RIWKH%HUOLQ:DOO²RUE\ ZD\RIOD[HGHPLJUDWLRQSROLFLHVOLNHWKRVHLQ FRQWHPSRUDU\,QGLDZKHUH³WKH,QGLDQJRYHUQPHQWKDVQRWDGRSWHGVWULFW SROLFLHV EHFDXVH WKH\ EHOLHYH WKDW WKH RYHUVHDV WDOHQW ZLOO HYHQWXDOO\ FRQWULEXWHWRWKHQDWLRQLQWKHIXWXUH´ WKHUHLVGLIIHUHQFHLQRXWFRPHHJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH JRYHUQPHQWGRPLQDWHGOLIHZRUOG²EXWWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHPROGLQJDQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI OD[HG HPLJUDWLRQ SROLFLHV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH PDUNHWGULYHQ OLIHZRUOG $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VWDELOLW\ HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH EUDLQ GUDLQ SUREOHP LQ &KLQD DIWHU PDUNHW UHIRUPV DV VKRZQ LQ ³WKH ODUJHVFDOH HPLJUDWLRQ RI &KLQHVH SHRSOH ZLWK WHFKQLFDO VNLOOV RU NQRZOHGJH«WR :HVWHUQ FRXQWULHV«VLQFH WKH PLGILUVW GHFDGH RI WKH VW FHQWXU\´ WKHUH LV
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
UHDFWLRQ HJ WKH EUDLQ GUDLQ SUREOHP LQ &KLQD DIWHU PDUNHW UHIRUPV KDV WKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHVODWHURQZKHQ³&KLQD VUDSLGHFRQRPLFJURZWK KDV VHHQ WKH QXPEHU RI &KLQHVH UHWXUQLQJ IURP RYHUVHDV JURZ LQ UHFHQW \HDUV VWDUWLQJ D QHZ FKDSWHU LQ WKHLU OLYHV DV ZHOO DV WKH FRXQWU\ V KLVWRU\´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
7KH2WKHUV5HODWLYH'HSULYDWLRQDQG(PLJUDWLRQ $QRWKHU ZD\ WR HYDOXDWH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ RI WKH 2WKHUV IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH PLQGLVWRH[SORUHWKH2WKHUVUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQDQGHPLJUDWLRQ $V DOUHDG\ LQWURGXFHG LQ 6HF WKH WHUP ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ UHIHUV WR WKH ³DZDUHQHVV RI WKH LQFRPH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ QHLJKERUV RU RWKHU KRXVHKROGV LQ WKH PLJUDQWVHQGLQJ FRPPXQLW\´ ZKLFK LV ³DQ LPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQPLJUDWLRQ´:.D5-HQQLVVHQ ,QWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH2WKHUVDQGWKH6DPHDVLQWURGXFHGLQ6HF WKHWHUP³WKH2WKHUV´LQWKLVVHFWLRQUHIHUVWRWKRVHLQKRPHFRXQWULHVZKR ZDQW WR HPLJUDWH GXH WR UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ DQG WKH WHUP ³WKH 6DPH´ UHIHUVWRWKRVHLQKRPHFRXQWULHVZKRGHFLGHWRVWD\ $EVROXWHDQG5HODWLYH'HSULYDWLRQ +RZHYHU WKH FRQFHSW ³GHSULYDWLRQ´ FDQ EH XQGHUVWRRG ERWK LQ DQ DEVROXWHVHQVHDQGLQDUHODWLYHVHQVH D $EVROXWH'HSULYDWLRQ ,Q UHJDUG WR WKH DEVROXWH VHQVH ³GHSULYDWLRQ´ LV XQGHUVWRRG DV ³REMHFWLYH´ZKLFKUHIHUVWR³DFRQGLWLRQWKDWDSSOLHVWRDOOXQGHUSULYLOHJHG SHRSOH´OLNH³DEVROXWHSRYHUW\´:.K )RUH[DPSOH³DPHDVXUHRIDEVROXWHSRYHUW\TXDQWLILHVWKHQXPEHURI SHRSOH EHORZ D IL[HG UHDO SRYHUW\ WKUHVKROG ,W LV D OHYHO RI SRYHUW\ DV GHILQHGLQWHUPVRIWKHPLQLPDOUHTXLUHPHQWVQHFHVVDU\WRDIIRUGPLQLPDO VWDQGDUGVRIIRRGFORWKLQJKHDOWKFDUHDQGVKHOWHU)RUWKHPHDVXUHWREH DEVROXWH WKH OLQH PXVW EH WKH VDPH LQ GLIIHUHQW FRXQWULHV FXOWXUHV DQG WHFKQRORJLFDO OHYHOV 6XFK DQ DEVROXWH PHDVXUH VKRXOG ORRN RQO\ DW WKH LQGLYLGXDO V SRZHU WR FRQVXPH DQG LW VKRXOG EH LQGHSHQGHQW RI DQ\ FKDQJHVLQLQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQ6XFKDPHDVXUHLVSRVVLEOHRQO\ZKHQDOO FRQVXPHG JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV DUH FRXQWHG DQG ZKHQ 333H[FKDQJH UDWHV DUHXVHGVHHSXUFKDVLQJSRZHUSDULW\ ´:.QQ 7KLV XVH RI ³DEVROXWH SRYHUW\´ LV LQWXLWLYH EHFDXVH ³PHUH VXUYLYDO WDNHVHVVHQWLDOO\WKH VDPHDPRXQWRIUHVRXUFHVDFURVVWKH ZRUOGDQGWKDW HYHU\ERG\ VKRXOG EH VXEMHFW WR WKH VDPH VWDQGDUGV LI PHDQLQJIXO
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
FRPSDULVRQV RI SROLFLHV DQG SURJUHVV DUH WR EH PDGH 1RWLFH WKDW LI HYHU\RQH V UHDO LQFRPH LQ DQ HFRQRP\ LQFUHDVHV DQG WKH LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQGRHVQRWFKDQJHDEVROXWHSRYHUW\ZLOOGHFOLQH´:.QQ 7KLV GLVWLQFWLRQ WKHQ ³OHDGV WR DQ LPSRUWDQW FRQFOXVLRQ ZKLOH WKH REMHFWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ SRYHUW\ LQ WKH ZRUOG PD\ FKDQJH RYHU WLPH UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQZLOOQRWDVORQJDVVRFLDOLQHTXDOLW\SHUVLVWVDQGVRPH KXPDQVDUHEHWWHURIIWKDQRWKHUV´:.D )RUH[DPSOH³LQFDUVZHUHDOX[XU\´VR³DQLQGLYLGXDOXQDEOH WRDIIRUGRQHZRXOGQRWIHHORUEHYLHZHGDVGHSULYHG´:.D %XW³LQZKHQFDUVDUHFRPPRQLQPRVWVRFLHWLHVDQLQGLYLGXDO XQDEOH WR DIIRUG RQH LV PXFK PRUH OLNHO\ WR IHHO GHSULYHG ,Q DQRWKHU H[DPSOH PRELOH SKRQHV DUH FRPPRQ WRGD\ DQG PDQ\ SHRSOH PD\ IHHO WKDWWKH\GHVHUYHWRKDYHRQH)LIW\\HDUVDJRZKHQWKHUHZHUHQRPRELOH SKRQHVVXFKDVHQWLPHQWZRXOGREYLRXVO\QRWH[LVW´:.D E 5HODWLYH'HSULYDWLRQ $QG LQ UHJDUG WR WKH UHODWLYH VHQVH ³.DUO 3RODQ\L«DUJXHG WKDW UHODWLYHGLIIHUHQFHVLQHFRQRPLFZHDOWKDUHPRUHLPSRUWDQWWKDQDEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQDQGWKDWLWLVPRUHVLJQLILFDQWLQGHWHUPLQLQJKXPDQTXDOLW\RI OLIH7KLVGHEDWHKDVLPSRUWDQWFRQVHTXHQFHVIRUVRFLDOSROLF\SDUWLFXODUO\ RQ ZKHWKHU SRYHUW\ FDQ EH HOLPLQDWHG VLPSO\ E\ UDLVLQJ WRWDO ZHDOWK RU ZKHWKHU HJDOLWDULDQ PHDVXUHV DUH DOVR QHHGHG´ :. K ' *ULIILQ )RU LOOXVWUDWLRQ ³D VSHFLILF IRUP RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ LV UHODWLYH SRYHUW\ $ PHDVXUH RI UHODWLYH SRYHUW\ GHILQHV SRYHUW\ DV EHLQJ EHORZ VRPHUHODWLYHSRYHUW\OLQHVXFKDVKRXVHKROGVZKRHDUQOHVVWKDQRI WKH PHGLDQ LQFRPH1RWLFHWKDWLIHYHU\RQH VUHDO LQFRPHLQDQHFRQRP\ LQFUHDVHVEXWWKHLQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQVWD\VWKHVDPHWKHQXPEHURISHRSOH OLYLQJLQUHODWLYHSRYHUW\ZLOOQRWFKDQJH´:.K ,Q DGGLWLRQ ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ PD\ EH WHPSRUDO WKDW LV LW FDQ EH H[SHULHQFHG E\ SHRSOH WKDW H[SHULHQFH H[SDQVLRQ RI ULJKWV RU ZHDOWK IROORZHG E\ VWDJQDWLRQ RU UHYHUVDO RI WKRVH JDLQV 6XFK SKHQRPHQD DUH DOVR NQRZQ DV XQIXOILOOHG ULVLQJ H[SHFWDWLRQV´ :. K ' .HQGDOO $QG³LQDQH[DPSOHIURPWKHSROLWLFDOUHDOPWKHODFNWKHULJKWWRYRWH LVPRUHOLNHO\WREHIHOWDVDGHSULYDWLRQE\SHRSOHZKRKDGLWRQFHWKHQE\ WKHSHRSOHZKRQHYHUKDGWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WRYRWH´:.K 7KHRU\RI5HODWLYH'HSULYDWLRQ 7KHFRQFHSWRI³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´KDVEHHQXVHGE\VRFLRORJLVWVWR XQGHUVWDQGVRFLDOSKHQRPHQD
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
)RULQVWDQFH³$PHULFDQVRFLRORJLVW5REHUW.0HUWRQZDVDPRQJWKH ILUVWLIQRWWKHILUVW WRXVHWKHFRQFHSWRIUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQLQRUGHUWR XQGHUVWDQG VRFLDO GHYLDQFH XVLQJ )UHQFK VRFLRORJLVW (PLOH 'XUNKHLP V FRQFHSWRIDQRPLHDVDVWDUWLQJSRLQW´:.K $QG³:DOWHU5XQFLPDQ>@QRWHGWKDWWKHUHDUHIRXUSUHFRQGLWLRQV RIUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQRIREMHFW;E\SHUVRQ$ ´DVVKRZQEHORZ:. K ³3HUVRQ$GRHVQRWKDYH;´ ³3HUVRQ$NQRZVRIRWKHUSHUVRQVWKDWKDYH;´ ³3HUVRQ$ZDQWVWRKDYH;´ ³3HUVRQ$EHOLHYHVREWDLQLQJ;LVUHDOLVWLF´ 7KHQ³5XQFLPDQGLVWLQJXLVKHVEHWZHHQHJRLVWLFDQGIUDWHUQDOLVWLFUHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ 7KH IRUPHU LV FDXVHG E\ XQIDYRUDEOH VRFLDO SRVLWLRQ ZKHQ FRPSDUHGWRRWKHUEHWWHURIIPHPEHUVRIDVSHFLILFJURXS$LVWKHPHPEHU RI DQG WKH ODWWHU E\ XQIDYRUDEOH FRPSDULVRQ WR RWKHU EHWWHURII JURXSV (JRLVWLFUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQFDQEHVHHQLQWKHH[DPSOHRIDZRUNHUZKR EHOLHYHVKHVKRXOGKDYHEHHQSURPRWHGIDVWHUDQGPD\OHDGWRWKDWSHUVRQ WDNLQJ DFWLRQV GHVLJQHG WR LPSURYH KLV SRVLWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH JURXS WKRVH DFWLRQVDUHKRZHYHUXQOLNHO\WRDIIHFWPDQ\SHRSOH´:.K +RZHYHU ³IUDWHUQDOLVWLF FDQ EH VHHQ LQ WKH H[DPSOH RI UDFLDO GLVFULPLQDWLRQ DQG DUH PXFK PRUH OLNHO\ WR UHVXOW LQ WKH FUHDWLRQ DQG JURZWK RI ODUJH VRFLDO PRYHPHQW OLNH WKH $PHULFDQ &LYLO 5LJKWV 0RYHPHQW LQ WKH V $QRWKHU H[DPSOH RI IUDWHUQDOLVWLF UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQLVWKHHQY\WHHQDJHUVIHHOWRZDUGVWKHZHDOWK\FKDUDFWHUVZKR DUH SRUWUD\HG LQ PRYLHV DQG RQ WHOHYLVLRQ DV EHLQJ PLGGOH FODVV RU
QRUPDO GHVSLWH ZHDULQJ H[SHQVLYH FORWKHV GULYLQJ H[SHQVLYH FDUV DQG OLYLQJLQPDQVLRQV´:.K 5HODWLYH'HSULYDWLRQDQG(PLJUDWLRQ :KHQ DSSOLHG WR WKH FRQWH[W RI HPLJUDWLRQ²WKH WKHRU\ RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ KROGV D SV\FKRORJLFDO DSSURDFK WR PLJUDWLRQ ZKLFK ³VWDWHV WKDW DZDUHQHVV RI WKH LQFRPH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ QHLJKERUV RU RWKHU KRXVHKROGV LQ WKH PLJUDQWVHQGLQJ FRPPXQLW\ LV DQ LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU LQ PLJUDWLRQ´:.D 2IFRXUVH³WKHLQFHQWLYHWRPLJUDWHLVDORWKLJKHULQDUHDVWKDWKDYHD KLJK OHYHO RI HFRQRPLF LQHTXDOLW\ ,Q WKH VKRUW UXQ UHPLWWDQFHV PD\ LQFUHDVH LQHTXDOLW\ EXW LQ WKH ORQJ UXQ WKH\ PD\ DFWXDOO\ GHFUHDVH LW«6XFFHVVIXO KLJKVNLOOHG HPLJUDQWV PD\ VHUYH DV DQ H[DPSOH IRU
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
QHLJKERUV DQG SRWHQWLDO PLJUDQWV ZKR KRSH WR DFKLHYH WKDW OHYHO RI VXFFHVV´:.D5-HQQLVVHQ 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI5HODWLYH'HSULYDWLRQ +RZHYHU IRU WKH FULWLFV WKLV VWXG\ RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ KDV VRPH PDMRUSUREOHPV&RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQDIHZH[DPSOHVEHORZ )LUVWO\RQHPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQLVWKDWLW LVWRRQDUURZLQIRFXVSULPDULO\DWWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOOHYHO )RULQVWDQFHRYHUWKHGHFDGHVWKHUHDUHRWKHUH[SODQDWLRQVZKLFKDUH QRQSV\FKRORJLFDO DQG JRRG H[DPSOHV RI WKHVH DOWHUQDWLYH VWXGLHV RI PLJUDWLRQDUH³QHRFODVVLFDOHFRQRPLFWKHRU\´³GXDOODERUPDUNHWWKHRU\´ ³WKH QHZ HFRQRPLFV RI ODERU PLJUDWLRQ´ DQG ³ZRUOG V\VWHPV WKHRU\´ WR FLWHMXVWDIHZH[DPSOHV:.D 6HFRQGO\DQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQLV WKDWHYHQDWWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOOHYHOWKHUHDUHDOWHUQDWLYHH[SODQDWLRQV )RU LQVWDQFH DQ DOWHUQDWLYH SV\FKRORJLFDO PRGHO LV WR KROG WKH YLHZ WKDW ³PLJUDWLRQ RFFXUV EHFDXVH LQGLYLGXDOV VHDUFK IRU IRRG VH[ DQG VHFXULW\ RXWVLGH WKHLU XVXDO KDELWDWLRQ«7R SURGXFH IRRG VHFXULW\ DQG UHSURGXFWLRQKXPDQEHLQJVPXVWRXWRIQHFHVVLW\PRYHRXWRIWKHLUXVXDO KDELWDWLRQ DQG HQWHU LQWR LQGLVSHQVDEOH VRFLDO UHODWLRQVKLSV WKDW DUH FRRSHUDWLYH RU DQWDJRQLVWLF«7KH LPSURYHG UHODWLRQVKLS FRRSHUDWLYH UHODWLRQVKLSV DPRQJ KXPDQ EHLQJV DQG LPSURYHG WHFKQRORJ\ IXUWKHU FRQGLWLRQHG E\ WKH SXVK DQG SXOO IDFWRUV DOO LQWHUDFW WRJHWKHU WR FDXVH RU EULQJDERXW PLJUDWLRQDQGKLJKHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQRILQGLYLGXDOVLQWRWRZQV DQGFLWLHV´:.D 7KLUGO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQLVWKDWLWGRHVQRWH[SODLQPXFKRIDQ\WKLQJ )RULQVWDQFH ³FULWLTXHRIWKLVWKHRU\ KDVSRLQWHGRXWWKDWWKLVWKHRU\ IDLOV WR H[SODLQ ZK\ VRPH SHRSOH ZKR IHHO GLVFRQWHQW IDLO WR WDNH DFWLRQ«&RXQWHUDUJXPHQWV LQFOXGH WKDW VRPH SHRSOH DUH SURQH WR FRQIOLFWDYRLGDQFH VKRUWWHUPRULHQWHG´ DQG VR RQ ³VLQFH WKHUH LV QR JXDUDQWHH WKDW OLIHLPSURYHPHQW ZLOO UHVXOW IURP«DFWLRQ´ :. K '.HQGDOO $QG IRXUWKO\ DQ DGGLWLRQDO PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQLVWKDWLWIRFXVHVWRRPXFKRQWKHUHODWLYHVHQVHRIGHSULYDWLRQ EXWWKHFRQFHSWRIDEVROXWHGHSULYDWLRQLVLPSRUWDQWWRR )RU LQVWDQFH WKH EHQHILW RI ³PHDVXULQJ SRYHUW\ E\ DQ DEVROXWH WKUHVKROG´LV³WKHDGYDQWDJHRIDSSO\LQJWKHVDPHVWDQGDUGDFURVVGLIIHUHQW ORFDWLRQVDQGWLPHSHULRGVPDNLQJFRPSDULVRQVHDVLHU´²DQGWKLVLVWUXH HYHQWKRXJKWKHGRZQVLGHLVWKDW³LWVXIIHUVIURPWKHGLVDGYDQWDJHWKDWDQ\ DEVROXWH SRYHUW\ WKUHVKROG LV WR VRPH H[WHQW DUELWUDU\ WKH DPRXQW RI
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
ZHDOWKUHTXLUHGIRUVXUYLYDOLVQRWWKHVDPHLQDOOSODFHVDQGWLPHSHULRGV )RUH[DPSOHDSHUVRQOLYLQJLQIDUQRUWKHUQ6FDQGLQDYLDUHTXLUHVDVRXUFH RI KHDW GXULQJ FROGHU PRQWKV ZKLOH D SHUVRQ OLYLQJ RQ D WURSLFDO LVODQG GRHVQRW´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³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ WKHUH LV UHODWLYHQHVV HJ ZKDW LV ULJKW IURP WKH VWDQGSRLQW RI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ VR IURP WKH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
VWDQGSRLQWRI³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGV WUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVSDUWLDOLW\HJ WKH SDUWLDO YLHZ RI WKH VWDQGSRLQW RI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ WKHUH LV WRWDOLW\HJWKHPRUHKROLVWLFYLHZRIGHSULYDWLRQVXFKWKDWWKHZKROHLV QRW WKH VXP RI LWV SDUWV WKDW LV LW FDQQRW EH UHGXFHG WR WKH VXP RI RSSRVLQJ YLHZV OLNH ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ DQG ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ VLQFHWKHUHZLOOHPHUJHQHZYLHZVLQWKHIXWXUHQRW\HWNQRZQWRGD\ $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHGLFWDELOLW\ HJ WKH SUHGLFWDEOH WHQGHQF\ RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WR ILJKW SRYHUW\ QRW VLPSO\ E\ ³UDLVLQJ WRWDO ZHDOWK´ EXW DOVR E\ ³HJDOLWDULDQ PHDVXUHV´ WKHUH LV XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ HJ WKH PRUHGLIILFXOWWDVNIRUWKRVHLQWKHVWXG\RIUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQWRSUHGLFW H[DFWO\ WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKLV NLQG RI VWXG\ ZLOO UHPDLQ LQIOXHQWLDO LQ IXWXUH KLVWRU\ VLQFH WKHUH DUH DOUHDG\ DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHOV WR XQGHUVWDQG PLJUDWLRQ ZKLFK DUH QRW VROHO\ DERXW ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ OLNH ³QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLF WKHRU\´ ³GXDO ODERU PDUNHW WKHRU\´ ³WKH QHZ HFRQRPLFVRIODERUPLJUDWLRQ´DQG³ZRUOGV\VWHPVWKHRU\´IRUH[DPSOH $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH H[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV H[SOLFDELOLW\ HJ WKH H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKDW ³DZDUHQHVV RI WKH LQFRPH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ QHLJKERUV RU RWKHU KRXVHKROGV LQ WKH PLJUDQWVHQGLQJ FRPPXQLW\ LV DQ LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU LQ PLJUDWLRQ´ WKHUH LV LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ HJ WKH ODFN RI VXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ RI ZK\ WKLV WKHRU\QHFHVVDULO\H[SODLQVPXFKRIDQ\WKLQJVLQFHIRUWKHFULWLFVLW³IDLOV WR H[SODLQ ZK\ VRPH SHRSOH ZKR IHHO GLVFRQWHQW IDLO WR WDNH DFWLRQ«&RXQWHUDUJXPHQWV LQFOXGH WKDW VRPH SHRSOH DUH SURQH WR FRQIOLFWDYRLGDQFH VKRUWWHUPRULHQWHG´ DQG VR RQ ³VLQFH WKHUH LV QR JXDUDQWHH WKDW OLIHLPSURYHPHQW ZLOO UHVXOW IURP«DFWLRQ´ $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILFWLRQ HJ WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LQVRIDU DV ³DQ\ DEVROXWH SRYHUW\ WKUHVKROG LV WR VRPH H[WHQW DUELWUDU\´ WKHUH LV UHDOLW\ HJ WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LQVRIDU DV LW KDV ³WKH DGYDQWDJH RI DSSO\LQJ WKH VDPH VWDQGDUGDFURVVGLIIHUHQWORFDWLRQVDQGWLPHSHULRGVPDNLQJFRPSDULVRQV HDVLHU´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILQLWHQHVV HJ WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH FDWHJRULHV RI GHSULYDWLRQ OLNH
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
³DEVROXWHGHSULYDWLRQ´DQG³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´ WKHUHLVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV HJWKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURIDOOWKHLQGLYLGXDOVLQKLVWRU\ZKRKDYHHYHU EHHQ GHSULYHG HLWKHU DEVROXWHO\ RU UHODWLYHO\ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHFLVHQHVV HJ WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI ³IRXU SUHFRQGLWLRQV RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ E\ :DOWHU 5XQFLPDQ WKHUH LV YDJXHQHVV HJ WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH ³IRXU SUHFRQGLWLRQV RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´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³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ WKHUH LV KLGGHQQHVV HJ WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´LQWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQVLQFHIRUWKHFULWLFVLWIRFXVHVWRR PXFKRQWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOOHYHOWKDWHYHQDWWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOOHYHOWKHUH DUH DOWHUQDWLYH H[SODQDWLRQV WKDW LW GRHV QRW JLYH VXIILFLHQW ZHLJKW WR DEVROXWHGHSULYDWLRQHWF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHGHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVGHQVHQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ E\ WKRVH IRU WKH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKHRU\ WKHUH LV HPSWLQHVVHJWKHUHODWLYHO\OHVVGHQVHRUPRUHHPSW\FRQFHQWUDWLRQRI FRQFHUQV ZLWK ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ E\ WKRVH IRU DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHOV OLNH ³ZRUOGV\VWHPVWKHRU\´HWF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFKDQJHFRQVWDQF\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFKDQJHHJ ³REMHFWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ«LQ WKH ZRUOG PD\ FKDQJH RYHU WLPH´ WKHUH LV FRQVWDQF\ HJ ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ ZLOO«SHUVLVW´ RYHU WLPH DOWKRXJK WKHLQHTXDOLW\LWVHOIFDQIOXFWXDWHRYHUWLPH $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVR KROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHRUGHUFKDRVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVRUGHUHJWKHPRUH RUOHVVRUGHUO\QDWXUHRIUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQLIYLHZHGIURPWKHVWDQGSRLQW RIWKRVHLQWKHFRQWH[WRIPLJUDWLRQLQWKDW³WKHLQFHQWLYHWRPLJUDWHLVD ORWKLJKHULQDUHDVWKDWKDYHDKLJKOHYHORIHFRQRPLFLQHTXDOLW\´ WKHUHLV FKDRV HJ WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF QDWXUH RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ LI YLHZHGIURPWKHVWDQGSRLQWRI³SROLWLFDOVFLHQWLVWVDQGVRFLRORJLVWV´ZKR
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
³KDYH FLWHG UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ «DV D SRWHQWLDO FDXVH RI VRFLDO PRYHPHQWV DQG GHYLDQFH OHDGLQJ WR H[WUHPH VLWXDWLRQV WR SROLWLFDO YLROHQFHVXFKDVULRWLQJWHUURULVPFLYLOZDUVDQGRWKHULQVWDQFHVRIVRFLDO GHYLDQFHVXFKDVFULPH´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³SXOOV´DORWRILPPLJUDQWV LQ EHFDXVH RI LWV DELOLW\ WR KDYH OLWWOH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKHUH LV FRQWUDFWLRQ HJ WKH UHODWLYH GHFOLQH RI D FLW\ ZKHQ LW ³SXVKHV´ D ORW RI HPLJUDQWV RXW EHFDXVH RI VHYHUH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV WKHRU\ HJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LQ SV\FKRORJ\ DQG ELRORJ\ WKHUH LV SUD[LV HJ WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´LQSV\FKRORJ\DQGELRORJ\WRWKHILHOGRIVRFLRORJ\OLNHWKH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKHRU\ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFRQYHQWLRQ HJWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPDERXWWKHFRQFHSWRI³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´ DVDEDVLVWRXQGHUVWDQG³VRFLDOGHYLDQFH´E\5REHUW.0HUWRQ WKHUHLV QRYHOW\ HJ WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXWWKHFRQFHSWRI³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´DVDEDVLVWRXQGHUVWDQG³VRFLDO GHYLDQFH´E\WKHQHZLGHDRIXVLQJWKHFRQFHSWRI³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´ IRU WKH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKHRU\ WR VWXG\ WKH QDWXUH RI PLJUDWLRQ LQVWHDG $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH HYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV HYROXWLRQ HJ WKH QDWXUDO HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQV WR HQFRXQWHU GHSULYDWLRQ IURPWLPHWRWLPHLQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHDOEHLWLQDSULPLWLYHZD\ WKHUHLV WUDQVIRUPDWLRQHJWKHWHFKQLFDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIKXPDQDELOLW\WRGHDO ZLWKGHSULYDWLRQE\WKHLQYHQWLRQRIWKHUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQWKHRU\IRUWKH VWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVV\PPHWU\ HJ WKH FRH[LVWHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW JURXSV LQ D PRGHUQ VRFLHW\ WKHUH LV DV\PPHWU\HJVRPHJURXSVKDYHPRUHZHDOWKWKDQRWKHUVLQDPRGHUQ
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
VRFLHW\ WR WKH H[WHQW WKDW UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ RFFXUV $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHVRIWQHVVKDUGQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVVRIWQHVVHJ ³HJRLVWLFUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQFDQEHVHHQLQWKHH[DPSOHRIDZRUNHUZKR EHOLHYHVKHVKRXOGKDYHEHHQSURPRWHGIDVWHUDQGPD\OHDGWRWKDWSHUVRQ WDNLQJDFWLRQVGHVLJQHGWRLPSURYHKLVSRVLWLRQ´ WKHUHLV KDUGQHVVHJ ³IUDWHUQDOLVWLF >UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ@ FDQ EH VHHQ LQ WKH H[DPSOH RI UDFLDO GLVFULPLQDWLRQ´ ZKLFKLV ³PXFK PRUHOLNHO\WRUHVXOWLQWKHFUHDWLRQDQG JURZWK RI ODUJH VRFLDO PRYHPHQW OLNH WKH $PHULFDQ &LYLO 5LJKWV 0RYHPHQW LQ WKH V´ DJDLQVW ZKLWH UDFLVP :. K $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VHULRXVQHVVHJWKHVHULRXVEXVLQHVVRIWKRVHLQWKHVWXG\RIGHSULYDWLRQ WRXQGHUVWDQGEHWWHULWVQDWXUH WKHUHLVSOD\IXOQHVVHJWKHSOD\IXOSDUW RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI GHSULYDWLRQ ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQWLGHDVOLNH³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´³DEVROXWHGHSULYDWLRQ´WKHXVH RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ IRU WKH VWXG\ RI VRFLDO GHYLDQFH WKH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKHRU\ IRU WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ HWF $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH UHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV UHJUHVVLRQ HJ WKH GLVDGYDQWDJH RI WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LV WKDW ³DQ\ DEVROXWH SRYHUW\ WKUHVKROG LV WR VRPH H[WHQW DUELWUDU\´ WKHUHLVSURJUHVVLRQHJWKHDGYDQWDJHRIWKHPHDVXUHPHQWRI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LV WKH XVH ³WKH VDPH VWDQGDUG DFURVV GLIIHUHQW ORFDWLRQVDQGWLPHSHULRGVPDNLQJFRPSDULVRQVHDVLHU´ $QGWKHUHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VDPHGLIIHUHQFH SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VLPLODULW\ LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV UHJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFHRIWKHUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQWKHRU\IRUWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQRU E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI ZRUOG V\VWHPV WKHRU\ IRU WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ WKHUH LV GLIIHUHQFH LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVE\WKHDFFHSWDQFHRIWKHUHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQWKHRU\IRUDUHODWLYHO\PRUHSV\FKRORJLFDOZRUOGYLHZ²EXWWKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI ZRUOG V\VWHPV WKHRU\ IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VRFLDO V\VWHPLFZRUOGYLHZ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VWDELOLW\ HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH LGHD RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LQ WKH ROGHU GD\V ZKHQ ³LWV RULJLQV DUH IURP WKH ELRORJLFDO FRQFHSW RI UHODWLYH ILWQHVV ZKHUH DQ RUJDQLVP WKDW VXFFHVVIXOO\
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
RXWSURGXFHVLWVFRPSHWLWRUVOHDYHVPRUHFRSLHVLQWKHJHQHSRRO´ WKHUHLV UHDFWLRQHJWKHLGHDRI³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´ZLWK³LWVRULJLQV«IURPWKH ELRORJLFDOFRQFHSWRIUHODWLYHILWQHVV´WKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHVODWHURQ ZKHQ LW LV XVHG QRZDGD\V IRU WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ OLNH WKH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQWKHRU\LQWKHFRQWH[WRIKXPDQPLJUDWLRQDIRUHGLVFXVVHG $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
7KH2WKHUVDQG1DWXUH 7KH 2WKHUV ZKHQ H[DPLQHG IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI QDWXUH FDQ EHDWXLIXOO\ UHYHDO WKHLU SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ DQGWKLVFDQEHVKRZQE\ZD\RIWZRFDVHVWXGLHVQDPHO\ WKH2WKHUVQDWXUDOIRUFHVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQDQG WKH 2WKHUV ELRGLYHUVLW\ DQG VHHG GLVSHUVDO²WR EH DGGUHVVHG LQ ZKDW IROORZVUHVSHFWLYHO\
7KH2WKHUV1DWXUDO)RUFHVDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO0LJUDWLRQ $QRWKHU ZD\ WR HYDOXDWH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\RUXQGHVLUDELOLW\ RIWKH2WKHUVIURPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIQDWXUH LVWRH[SORUHWKH2WKHUVQDWXUDOIRUFHVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQ 7KH WHUP ³HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ´ UHIHUV WR WKH PRYHPHQW RI ³SHRSOH ZKR DUH SXUSRUWHGO\ IRUFHG WR PLJUDWH IURP RU IOHH WKHLU KRPH UHJLRQ GXH WR VXGGHQ RU ORQJWHUP FKDQJHV WR WKHLU ORFDO HQYLURQPHQW ZKLFKLVKHOGWRLQFOXGHLQFUHDVHGGURXJKWVGHVHUWLILFDWLRQVHDOHYHOULVH DQG GLVUXSWLRQ RI VHDVRQDO ZHDWKHU SDWWHUQV VXFK DV PRQVRRQV´ :. RR 7R DYRLG FRQIXVLRQ LW VKRXOG EH VWUHVVHG WKDW ³WKH WHUP
HQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDQW LVXVHGVRPHZKDWLQWHUFKDQJHDEO\ZLWKDUDQJHRI VLPLODU WHUPV VXFK DV HQYLURQPHQWDO UHIXJHH FOLPDWH UHIXJHH FOLPDWH PLJUDQW DOWKRXJK WKH GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKHVH WHUPV LV FRQWHVWHG 'HVSLWH SUREOHPV RI GHILQLWLRQ DQG DQ DEVHQFH RI FOHDUFXW HYLGHQFH
HQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQ KDVLQFUHDVHGLQFXUUHQF\DVDQLVVXHRIFRQFHUQ LQWKHVDVSROLF\PDNHUVHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDOVFLHQWLVWVDWWHPSW WRFRQFHSWXDOLVHWKHSRWHQWLDOVRFLHWDOUDPLILFDWLRQVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQG JHQHUDOHQYLURQPHQWDOGHJUDGDWLRQ´:.RR ,QWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH2WKHUVDQGWKH6DPHDVLQWURGXFHGLQ6HF WKHWHUP³WKH2WKHUV´LQWKLVVHFWLRQUHIHUVWRWKRVHPLJUDQWVZKRKDYHWR IOHHWKHLUKRPHUHJLRQ³GXHWRVXGGHQRUORQJWHUPFKDQJHVWRWKHLUORFDO HQYLURQPHQW´ DQG WKH WHUP ³WKH 6DPH´ UHIHUV WR WKRVH LQ DXWKRULW\ ZKR RIWHQWKDQQRWDGYLVHRUKHOSWKHPIOHHGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
$%ULHI&RQFHSWXDO+LVWRU\ ,W ZDV VRPHWLPHV VDLG WKDW ³WKH SKUDVH HQYLURQPHQWDO UHIXJHH ´ ZDV ILUVWXVHGE\/HVWHU%URZQLQ´DQG³WKHUHKDVEHHQDSUROLIHUDWLRQLQ WKH XVH RI WKH WHUP DQG ODWHU HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQW DQG D FOXVWHU RI VLPLODU FDWHJRULHV LQFOXGLQJ IRUFHG HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQW
HQYLURQPHQWDOO\ PRWLYDWHG PLJUDQW FOLPDWH UHIXJHH FOLPDWH FKDQJH UHIXJHH HQYLURQPHQWDOO\ GLVSODFHG SHUVRQ ('3 GLVDVWHU UHIXJHH
HQYLURQPHQWDO GLVSODFHH HFRUHIXJHH HFRORJLFDOO\ GLVSODFHG SHUVRQ DQG HQYLURQPHQWDOUHIXJHHWREH (57% ´ :. RR / %URZQ &%RDQR %XW³WKHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHVHWHUPVDUHOHVVLPSRUWDQWWKDQZKDW WKH\ KDYH LQ FRPPRQ WKH\ DOO VXJJHVW WKDW WKHUH LV D GHWHUPLQDEOH UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQHQYLURQPHQWDOGULYHUVDQGKXPDQPLJUDWLRQZKLFKLV DQDO\WLFDOO\XVHIXOSROLF\UHOHYDQWDQGSRVVLEO\JURXQGVIRUWKHH[SDQVLRQ RIUHIXJHHODZ´:.RR ,Q ³7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 2UJDQLVDWLRQ IRU 0LJUDWLRQ SURSRVHV WKH IROORZLQJ GHILQLWLRQ IRU HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWV´ LQ WKDW ³HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWVDUHSHUVRQVRUJURXSVRISHUVRQVZKRIRUFRPSHOOLQJUHDVRQVRI VXGGHQ RU SURJUHVVLYH FKDQJHV LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW WKDW DGYHUVHO\ DIIHFW WKHLUOLYHVRUOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDUHREOLJHGWROHDYHWKHLUKDELWXDOKRPHV RU FKRRVH WR GR VR HLWKHU WHPSRUDULO\ RU SHUPDQHQWO\ DQG ZKR PRYH HLWKHUZLWKLQWKHLUFRXQWU\RUDEURDG´:.RR,20 ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 2UJDQLVDWLRQ IRU 0LJUDWLRQ ,20 DOVR FODVVLILHG³WKUHHW\SHVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDQWV´DVVKRZQEHORZ:. RR ³(QYLURQPHQWDO(PHUJHQF\0LJUDQWV´²³3HRSOHZKRIOHHWHPSRUDULO\ GXH WR DQ HQYLURQPHQWDO GLVDVWHU RU VXGGHQ HQYLURQPHQWDO HYHQW«([DPSOHV VRPHRQH IRUFHG WR OHDYH GXH WR KXUULFDQH WVXQDPLHDUWKTXDNHHWF´ ³(QYLURQPHQWDO)RUFHG0LJUDQWV´²³3HRSOHZKRKDYHWROHDYHGXHWR GHWHULRUDWLQJ HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV«([DPSOH VRPHRQH IRUFHG WR OHDYH GXH WR D VORZ GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI WKHLU HQYLURQPHQW VXFK DV GHIRUHVWDWLRQFRDVWDOGHWHULRUDWLRQHWF´ ³(QYLURQPHQWDO0RWLYDWHG0LJUDQWV´DND³(QYLURQPHQWDOO\,QGXFHG (FRQRPLF 0LJUDQWV´ ²³3HRSOH ZKR FKRRVH WR OHDYH WR DYRLG SRVVLEOH IXWXUH SUREOHPV«([DPSOH VRPHRQH ZKR OHDYHV GXH WR GHFOLQLQJFURSSURGXFWLYLW\FDXVHGE\GHVHUWLILFDWLRQ´ 6XUHO\WKHUHFDQEHRWKHUW\SHVEXWWKHVHWKUHHDUHGHILQHGE\,20
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
0RGHOVDQG3UHGLFWLRQV 2YHUWKHGHFDGHVWKHUHKDYHEHHQGLIIHUHQWPRGHOVWRXQGHUVWDQGDQG SUHGLFW³HQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDQWVUHIXJHHV´:.RR )RULQVWDQFH³-RGL-DFREVRQ LVFLWHGDVWKHILUVWUHVHDUFKHUWR HQXPHUDWH WKH LVVXH VWDWLQJ WKDW WKHUH ZHUH DOUHDG\ XS WR PLOOLRQ
(QYLURQPHQWDO 5HIXJHHV 'UDZLQJ RQ ZRUVW FDVH VFHQDULRV DERXW VHD OHYHOULVHVKHDUJXHGWKDWDOOIRUPVRI (QYLURQPHQWDO5HIXJHHV ZRXOGEH VL[WLPHVDVQXPHURXVDVSROLWLFDOUHIXJHHV´:.RR /DWHULQ³0XVWDID7ROED>@([HFXWLYH'LUHFWRURI81(3 ZDV FODLPLQJ WKDW DV PDQ\ DV PLOOLRQ SHRSOH FRXOG EHFRPH HQYLURQPHQWDO UHIXJHHV LI WKH ZRUOG GLG QRW DFW WR VXSSRUW VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW´:.RR ,Q ³WKH ,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO 3DQHO RQ &OLPDWH &KDQJH ,3&& GHFODUHGWKDWWKHJUHDWHVWVLQJOHFRQVHTXHQFHRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH FRXOG EH PLJUDWLRQ ZLWK PLOOLRQV RI SHRSOH GLVSODFHG E\ VKRUHOLQH HURVLRQ FRDVWDO IORRGLQJ DQG VHYHUH GURXJKW ´ :. RR . :DUQHU /DWHURQLQWKHVDPHGHFDGH³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«0RUH UHFHQWO\0\HUVKDVVXJJHVWHGWKDWWKHILJXUHE\PLJKWEHDVKLJKDV PLOOLRQ´:.RR ,Q SXEOLF ³WKHVH FODLPV KDYH JDLQHG VLJQLILFDQW FXUUHQF\ ZLWK WKH PRVW FRPPRQ FODLPV EHLQJ WKDW PLOOLRQ SHRSOH ZLOO EH FOLPDWH FKDQJH UHIXJHHV E\ 9DULDWLRQV RI WKLV FODLP KDYH EHHQ PDGH LQ LQIOXHQWLDOUHSRUWVRQFOLPDWHFKDQJHE\WKH,3&&DQGWKH6WHUQ5HYLHZRQ WKH(FRQRPLFVRI&OLPDWH&KDQJHDVZHOODVE\1*2VVXFKDV)ULHQGVRI WKH (DUWK *UHHQSHDFH *HUPDQ\ DQG &KULVWLDQ $LG DQG LQWHU JRYHUQPHQWDO RUJDQLVDWLRQV VXFK DV WKH &RXQFLO RI (XURSH 81(6&2 ,20DQG81+&5´:.RR2%URZQ16WHUQ)27( 81+&5
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI(QYLURQPHQWDO0LJUDWLRQ +RZHYHU IRU WKH FULWLFV WKLV VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ KDV VRPHPDMRUSUREOHPV&RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQDIHZH[DPSOHVEHORZ )LUVWO\RQHPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQLV WKDWWKHGHILQLWLRQVLQWKHILHOGKDYH\HWWREHFOHDUO\GHILQHG )RU LQVWDQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV ³WKLV W\SH RI PLJUDWLRQ«KDV \HW WR EH GHILQHG LQ D ZD\ WKDW DOORZV VXFK PLJUDQWV WR EH GLVWLQJXLVKHG IURP HFRQRPLFPLJUDQWVRUSROLWLFDOUHIXJHHV´LQUHDOLW\UHJDUGOHVVRIWKHW\SHV FRQFHSWXDOO\GHILQHGE\,20:.RR 6HFRQGO\ DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQLVWKDWPDQ\RILWVILQGLQJVDUHLQFRQVLVWHQWDQGXQVRXQG )RU LQVWDQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV ³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µ(QYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ¶ DQG FRQVLVWV FKLHIO\ RI LVRODWHG FDVH VWXG\ PDWHULDO´:.RR10\HUV ,Q IDFW WKH FULWLF OLNH 9LNUDP .ROPDQQVNRJ ³KDV VWDWHG WKDW 0\HUV¶ZRUNFDQEH FULWLFL]HGIRUEHLQJLQFRQVLVWHQWLPSRVVLEOHWRFKHFN DQG IDLOLQJ WR WDNH SURSHU DFFRXQW RI RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR DGDSW «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´ :.RR2%URZQ 7KLUGO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ LV WKDW LW RIWHQ DSSHDOV WR WKH FRPPRQVHQVH DQG HPRWLRQDO DWWDFKPHQWZLWKQDWXUHZLWKRXWSURYLQJPXFKRIDQ\WKLQJ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
)RU LQVWDQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV ³PXFK RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH SURGXFHG RQ
HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ DVVXPHV WKH QH[XV WR EH VHOIHYLGHQW 7KH FDWHJRU\ LV ERWK HPRWLYH DQG FRPPRQVHQVLFDO DQG WKHUHIRUH KDV ZLGHVSUHDG FXUUHQF\ LQ WKH PHGLD DQG DPRQJ SROLF\ PDNHUV QRQVRFLDO VFLHQWLVWVDQGQHR0DOWKXVLDQLVWVRFLDOVFLHQWLVWV´:.RR )RXUWKO\ DQ DGGLWLRQDO PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQLVWKDWLWLVQRWXVHIXOLQSUDFWLFH )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³WKHUHLVQRHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHFRQFHSWFDQ EHXVHGWRDFKLHYHJHQHUDOLVDEOHWUXWKV,QEULHIWKLVLVEHFDXVHWKHGHJUHH WR ZKLFK DQ\ JLYHQ HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRU LV PHDQLQJIXO DW WKH VRFLHWDO OHYHO²OHW DORQH WR DQ\ VSHFLILF DVSHFW RI KXPDQ DFWLYLW\ VXFK DV PLJUDWLRQ²LV HQWLUHO\ FRQGLWLRQDO RQ VRFLRHFRQRPLF DQG SROLWLFDO FRQWLQJHQFLHV ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV LW LV LPSRVVLEOH WR LVRODWH D VLQJOH HQYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUDVDQLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHIURPZKLFKWRGHGXFHLWV LPSDFWRQDSDUWLFXODURUJHQHUDO IRUPRIVRFLDORXWFRPHLQDQ\ZD\WKDW ZLOO EH JHQHUDOLVDEO\ XVHIXO WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLOO EH GLIIHUHQW GHSHQGLQJ RQFLUFXPVWDQFH´:.RR $QG ILIWKO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU DGGLWLRQDO PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQLVWKDWLWLVQRWIDOVLILDEOH )RU LQVWDQFH ³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´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
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
SULQFLSOH WKH H[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH WKH ILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH SUHFLVHQHVV YDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH VLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH RSHQQHVVKLGGHQQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH GHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH FKDQJHFRQVWDQF\ SULQFLSOH WKH RUGHUFKDRV SULQFLSOH WKH VORZQHVV TXLFNQHVVSULQFLSOHWKHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOHWKHWKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH WKH FRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\ SULQFLSOH WKH HYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOH WKH V\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\ SULQFLSOH WKH VRIWQHVVKDUGQHVV SULQFLSOHWKHVHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVVSULQFLSOHWKHUHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQ SULQFLSOH WKH VDPHGLIIHUHQFH SULQFLSOH DQG WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH )RU LQVWDQFH LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH IRUPDOQHVVLQIRUPDOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV IRUPDOQHVV HJ WKH IRUPDO ORJLFDO UHTXLUHPHQW RI VRXQGQHVV FRQVLVWHQF\ DQG FRPSOHWHQHVV LQ D V\VWHP RI LGHDV DV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ WKHUH LV LQIRUPDOQHVV HJ WKH QRQIRUPDO H[LVWHQFHRIXQVRXQGQHVVLQFRQVLVWHQF\DQGLQFRPSOHWHQHVVLQWKHVWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH FULWLFLVPV WKDW PDQ\ RI LWV ILQGLQJVDUHLQFRQVLVWHQWDQGXQVRXQGWKDWLWLVQRWIDOVLILDEOHHWF $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH DEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV DEVROXWHQHVV HJ WKH DEVROXWH YLHZ RI WKRVH LQ ³PXFK RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH SURGXFHG RQ HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ ´ ZKHQ WKH\ ³DVVXPH«WKH QH[XV WR EH VHOIHYLGHQW´ DQG ³WKH FDWHJRU\ LV ERWK HPRWLYH DQG FRPPRQVHQVLFDODQGWKHUHIRUHKDVZLGHVSUHDGFXUUHQF\LQWKHPHGLDDQG DPRQJ SROLF\ PDNHUV QRQVRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV DQG QHR0DOWKXVLDQLVW VRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV´ WKHUHLVUHODWLYHQHVVHJZKDWLVULJKWIRUWKRVHZKRDSSHDOWR WKH ³HPRWLYH DQG FRPPRQVHQVLFDO´ DFFHSWDQFH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ VR IRU WKH FULWLFV ZKR DUJXHG WKDW WKH ILHOG ³ODFNV FOHDUFXW HYLGHQFH´ WKDW ³SUHGLFWLYH PRGHOV KDYH WKHUHIRUH SURYHG HOXVLYH´ WKDW ³UHVHDUFK FRQGXFWHG LQ DUHDV RI
HQYLURQPHQWDOGHJUDGDWLRQ «KDYHVRIDUODFNHGIDOVLILDELOLW\´HWF $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVSDUWLDOLW\HJ WKHSDUWLDOYLHZRIWKHVWXG\RIHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQVLQFH³DQ\JLYHQ HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRU«PHDQLQJIXO DW WKH VRFLHWDO OHYHO«LV HQWLUHO\ FRQGLWLRQDO RQ VRFLRHFRQRPLF DQG SROLWLFDO FRQWLQJHQFLHV´ WKHUH LV WRWDOLW\ HJ WKH PRUH KROLVWLF YLHZ RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQVXFKWKDWWKHZKROHLVQRWWKHVXPRILWVSDUWVWKDWLVLWFDQQRW EH UHGXFHG WR WKH VXP RI RSSRVLQJ YLHZV RI GLIIHUHQW PRGHOV VLQFH ³UHVHDUFKFRQGXFWHGLQDUHDV RI HQYLURQPHQWDOGHJUDGDWLRQ «KDYHVRIDU
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
ODFNHGIDOVLILDELOLW\´DQGWKHUHZLOOHPHUJHQHZYLHZVLQWKHIXWXUHQRW\HW NQRZQWRGD\ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHGLFWDELOLW\HJWKHSUHGLFWDEOHWHQGHQF\RI WKRVHOLNH 1RUPDQ0\HUV WRSUHGLFWPLJUDWLRQRQWKHEDVLVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDVVKRZQLQKLVFODLP WKDW³WKHUHZHUHPLOOLRQHQYLURQPHQWDOUHIXJHHVLQWKHPLGV´DQG WKDW³WKLVILJXUHFRXOGGRXEOHE\´ WKHUHLVXQSUHGLFWDELOLW\HJWKH PRUH GLIILFXOW WDVN IRU WKRVH OLNH 1RUPDQ 0\HUV WR SUHGLFW H[DFWO\ WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK KLV FODLPV DUH WUXH VLQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV ³>S@UHGLFWLYH PRGHOV KDYH«SURYHG HOXVLYH´ DQG WKH\ ³KDYH VR IDU ODFNHG IDOVLILDELOLW\´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH H[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV H[SOLFDELOLW\HJWKHH[SODQDWLRQE\1RUPDQ0\HUVWKDWKLVFODLPVDERXW PLJUDWLRQ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH LV EDVHG RQ ³RYHU VRXUFHV´ WKHUH LV LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ HJ WKH ODFN RI VXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQ E\ 1RUPDQ 0\HUV RI ZK\ KLV FODLPV DERXW PLJUDWLRQ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH EDVHG RQ ³RYHU VRXUFHV´DUHQHFHVVDULO\SHUVXDVLYHVLQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³RQYLVLWLQJ KLV ELEOLRJUDSK\ LW EHFRPHV DSSDUHQW WKDW RI WKHVH VRXUFHV WKH YDVW PDMRULW\ FRQVWLWXWH QRWKLQJ PRUH WKDQ D UDWKHU GHVXOWRU\ RYHUYLHZ RI HQYLURQPHQWDOVFLHQFHWKDWKDVQRREYLRXVFRQQHFWLRQZLWKGLVFXVVLRQVRI VRFLHWDOLPSDFWVRUPLJUDWLRQ´DQG³RQO\RIWKHVHVRXUFHVGLVFXVVWKH PLJUDWLRQHQYLURQPHQW OLQNDJH H[SOLFLWO\ DQG LW LV ZRUWK QRWLQJ WKDW WKLV QXPEHU LV OLWWOH GLIIHUHQW WKDQ DQ\ RWKHU SDSHU RQ µ(QYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ¶DQGFRQVLVWVFKLHIO\RILVRODWHGFDVHVWXG\PDWHULDO´ $QGWKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILFWLRQ HJ WKH ILFWLRQDODVSHFWRIWKHVWXG\RIHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQLQVRIDUDVPDQ\ RILWVILQGLQJVDUHLQFRQVLVWHQWDQGXQVRXQGDVGHVFULEHGHDUOLHU WKHUHLV UHDOLW\ HJ WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ LQVRIDUDVLWVKRZVXVGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQ $QGWKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILQLWHQHVV HJ WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH W\SHV RI ³HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWV´ OLNH WKH WKUHH W\SHV GHILQHG E\ ,20 WKHUH LV WUDQVILQLWHQHVV HJWKHWUDQVILQLWH QXPEHURIDOOWKHLQGLYLGXDO PLJUDQWVLQKLVWRU\ ZKR KDYH EHHQ DIIHFWHG E\ DQ\ RI WKH WKUHH W\SHV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ GHILQHGE\,20 $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHFLVHQHVVHJWKHSUHFLVHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIWKUHHW\SHVRIHQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWV´ DV SRLQWHG RXW E\ ,20 LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG WKHUH LV YDJXHQHVV HJ WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH WKUHH W\SHV RI
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWV´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³KDV VWDWHG WKDW 0\HUV¶ ZRUN FDQEH FULWLFL]HGIRU EHLQJLQFRQVLVWHQWLPSRVVLEOHWRFKHFNDQGIDLOLQJWRWDNHSURSHUDFFRXQW RIRSSRUWXQLWLHVWRDGDSW ´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³>S@UHGLFWLYH PRGHOV KDYH«SURYHG HOXVLYH´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VORZQHVV HJWKHUHODWLYHO\VORZHUVSHHGRISHRSOHWRPLJUDWHZKHQWKH\DUHRQO\ ³IRUFHGWROHDYHGXHWRDVORZGHWHULRUDWLRQRIWKHLUHQYLURQPHQWVXFKDV GHIRUHVWDWLRQ FRDVWDO GHWHULRUDWLRQ HWF´ WKHUH LV TXLFNQHVV HJ WKH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHG RI ³SHRSOH«>WR@ IOHH WHPSRUDULO\ GXH WR DQ HQYLURQPHQWDO GLVDVWHU RU VXGGHQ HQYLURQPHQWDO HYHQW«([DPSOHV VRPHRQHIRUFHGWROHDYHGXHWRKXUULFDQHWVXQDPLHDUWKTXDNHHWF´ $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVH[SDQVLRQ HJ WKH UHODWLYH VSUHDG RI ³JOREDO PLJUDWLRQ«DV D UHVXOW RI DFFHOHUDWHG FOLPDWHFKDQJH´DFFRUGLQJWR,20 WKHUHLVFRQWUDFWLRQHJWKHUHODWLYH GHFOLQHRI³DUDEOHODQG´GXHWRLWV³GHVWUXFWLRQ´E\FOLPDWHFKDQJHOLNHWKH FDVH LQ ³WKH %DQJODGHVK,QGLD ERUGHU´ DFFRUGLQJ WR ,20 $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV WKHRU\ HJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³HQYLURQPHQWDO GHJUDGDWLRQ´ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ WKHUHLVSUD[LVHJWKHSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRI³HQYLURQPHQWDO GHJUDGDWLRQ´LQWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQWRWKHILHOGRISROLWLFVDQGODZOLNH WKH(QYLURQPHQWDO-XVWLFH)RXQGDWLRQ ZKLFK KDGFDPSDLJQHGIRU ³D QHZ PXOWLODWHUDOOHJDOLQVWUXPHQW«WRVSHFLILFDOO\DGGUHVVWKHQHHGVRI FOLPDWH UHIXJHHV ´ :.RR $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFRQYHQWLRQ HJWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPDERXWHQYLURQPHQWDOUHIXJHHVDQGPLJUDQWV E\ VRPHRQH OLNH 1RUPDQ 0\HUV WKHUH LV QRYHOW\ HJ WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHOFKDOOHQJHWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPDERXWHQYLURQPHQWDOUHIXJHHV DQGPLJUDQWVE\WKHQHZFULWLFDOLGHDRI9LNUDP.ROPDQQVNRJZKR³KDV VWDWHG WKDW 0\HUV¶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
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VHULRXVQHVV HJ WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ PLJUDWLRQDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJH WKHUHLVSOD\IXOQHVVHJWKHSOD\IXOSDUW RIWKRVHLQWKHVWXG\RIHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQZKHQWKH\SOD\HGDURXQG ZLWKGLIIHUHQW³ILQGLQJV´ZKLFKWXUQRXWWREH³LQFRQVLVWHQWDQGXQVRXQG´ DQG DOVR ³QRW IDOVLILDEOH´ DV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH UHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV UHJUHVVLRQ HJ WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV WKHUH LV SURJUHVVLRQ HJ WKH SURJUHVV PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWV ZRUNHGRXWE\,20 $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VDPHGLIIHUHQFH SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VLPLODULW\ LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVUHJDUGOHVVRIZKHWKHUWKLVEHGRQHE\WKHFDPSDLJQ IRU HQYLURQPHQWDO MXVWLFH OLNH WKH RQH E\ WKH (QYLURQPHQWDO -XVWLFH )RXQGDWLRQ RU E\ WKH VFKRODUO\ FULWLTXH RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQOLNHWKHRQHDJDLQVW0\HUVE\.ROPDQQVNRJ WKHUHLVGLIIHUHQFH LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH FDPSDLJQ IRU HQYLURQPHQWDO MXVWLFH IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH SROLWLFDODFWLYLVW OLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH VFKRODUO\ FULWLTXH RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VFLHQWLILFOLIHZRUOG $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VWDELOLW\ HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI ³WKH OLWHUDWXUH SURGXFHG RQ
HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ ´ ZKLFK ³LV ERWK HPRWLYH DQG FRPPRQVHQVLFDO DQG WKHUHIRUH KDV ZLGHVSUHDG FXUUHQF\ LQ WKH PHGLD DQG DPRQJ SROLF\ PDNHUV QRQVRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV DQG QHR0DOWKXVLDQLVW VRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV´ LQ WKH V DQG V IRU H[DPSOH WKHUH LV UHDFWLRQ HJ WKH SRSXODU ³OLWHUDWXUHSURGXFHGRQ HQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQ ´ZKLFK³LVERWKHPRWLYH DQGFRPPRQVHQVLFDODQGWKHUHIRUHKDVZLGHVSUHDGFXUUHQF\LQWKHPHGLD DQG DPRQJ SROLF\ PDNHUV QRQVRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV DQG QHR0DOWKXVLDQLVW VRFLDOVFLHQWLVWV´LQWKHVDQGVWKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHVODWHU RQ ZKHQ E\ WKH V WKHUH KDV EHHQ D ORW RI FULWLFLVPV DJDLQVW LW DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DIRUHFLWHG $QG WKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7KH2WKHUV%LRGLYHUVLW\DQG6HHG'LVSHUVDO $QRWKHU ZD\ WR HYDOXDWH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\RUXQGHVLUDELOLW\ RIWKH2WKHUVIURPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIQDWXUH LVWRH[SORUHWKH2WKHUVELRGLYHUVLW\DQGVHHGGLVSHUVDO 7KH WHUP ³VHHG GLVSHUVDO´ LV SRSXODU LQ WKH ZRUN RQ ELRGLYHUVLW\ LQ QDWXUDO HFRV\VWHPV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ UHJDUG WR ³WKH -DQ]HQ&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV´DQGUHIHUVWR³WKHPRYHPHQWRUWUDQVSRUWRIVHHGVDZD\IURP WKHSDUHQWSODQW3ODQWVKDYHOLPLWHGPRELOLW\DQGFRQVHTXHQWO\UHO\XSRQD YDULHW\ RI GLVSHUVDO YHFWRUV WR WUDQVSRUW WKHLU SURSDJXOHV LQFOXGLQJ ERWK DELRWLFDQGELRWLFYHFWRUV´:.O ,QWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH2WKHUVDQGWKH6DPHDVLQWURGXFHGLQ6HF WKH WHUP ³WKH 2WKHUV´ LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ UHIHUV WR WKRVH VHHGV UHDG\ WR EH GLVSHUVHGDQGWKHWHUP³WKH6DPH´UHIHUVWRWKRVHZKLFKSXWDFRQVWUDLQW RQ VHHG GLVSHUVDO RU GLVUXSW LW OLNH GLIIHUHQW VHHGOLQJ SUHGDWRUV DQG SDWKRJHQVZKLFKWDUJHWDQGHDW WKHVHHGVLQVWHDG 7\SHVRI6HHG'LVSHUVDO 7KHUHDUHWZR PDLQW\SHVRI VHHGGLVSHUVDOQDPHO\D ³DXWRFKRU\´ DQGE ³DOORFKRU\´DVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH :.O D $XWRFKRU\ $XWRFKRU\ VHHG GLVSHUVDO UHIHUV WR D W\SH RI GLVSHUVDO ZKLFK ³LV DWWDLQHGXVLQJWKHSODQW VRZQPHDQV´:.O )RULQVWDQFH³EDURFKRU\´ZKLFKPHDQV³WKHSODQWXVHRIJUDYLW\IRU GLVSHUVDO´ LV ³D VLPSOH PHDQV RI DFKLHYLQJ VHHG GLVSHUVDO 7KH HIIHFW RI JUDYLW\ RQ KHDYLHU IUXLWV FDXVHV WKHP WR IDOO IURP WKH SODQW ZKHQ ULSH )UXLWV H[KLELWLQJ WKLV W\SH RI GLVSHUVDO LQFOXGH DSSOHV FRFRQXWV DQG SDVVLRQIUXLWDQGWKRVHZLWKKDUGHUVKHOOVRIWHQUROODZD\IURPWKHSODQWWR JDLQ IXUWKHU GLVWDQFH *UDYLW\ GLVSHUVDO DOVR DOORZV IRU ODWHU WUDQVPLVVLRQ E\ZDWHURUDQLPDO´:.O6((' 2WKHU H[DPSOHV LQFOXGH ³EROHRDXWRFKRU\ WKH VHHG LV IRUFHIXOO\ HMHFWHGE\GHKLVFHQFHDQGVTXHH]LQJ RUKHUSDXWRFKRU\WKHVHHGFUDZOVE\ PHDQVRIWULFKRPHVDQGPRLVWFKDQJHV ´:.O E $OORFKRU\ 8QOLNH DXWRFKRU\ VHHG GLVSHUVDO²³DOORRFKRU\ VHHG GLVSHUVDO´ UHIHUV WRDW\SHRIGLVSHUVDOZKLFKLV³REWDLQHGWKURXJKH[WHUQDOPHDQV ´VXFKDV E ZLQG E ZDWHU E GLVSHUVDO E\ DQLPDOV DQG E GLVSHUVDO E\ KXPDQVDVVXPPDUL]HGEHORZ:.O
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
E :LQG :LQG VHHG GLVSHUVDO DND ³DQHPRFKRU\´ LV ³RQH RI WKH PRUH SULPLWLYH PHDQV RI GLVSHUVDO :LQG GLVSHUVDO FDQ WDNH RQ RQH RI WZR SULPDU\ IRUPV VHHGV FDQ IORDW RQ WKH EUHH]H RU DOWHUQDWLYHO\ WKH\ FDQ IOXWWHUWRWKHJURXQG7KHFODVVLFH[DPSOHVRIWKHVHGLVSHUVDOPHFKDQLVPV LQFOXGHGDQGHOLRQV ZKLFK KDYHD IHDWKHU\SDSSXVDWWDFKHGWRWKHLUVHHGV DQGFDQEHGLVSHUVHGORQJGLVWDQFHVDQGPDSOHVZKLFKKDYHZLQJHGVHHGV VDPDUD DQGIOXWWHUWRWKHJURXQG´:.O-*XUHYLWFK 2IFRXUVHQRWHYHU\VHHGLVGLVSHUVHGVXFFHVVIXOO\VR³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´:.O E :DWHU %\ FRQWUDVW ³>P@DQ\ DTXDWLF ZDWHU DQG VRPH WHUUHVWULDO JURXQG SODQWVSHFLHVXVH K\GURFKRU\RUVHHGGLVSHUVDOWKURXJK ZDWHU6HHGVFDQ WUDYHO IRU H[WUHPHO\ ORQJ GLVWDQFHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH VSHFLILF PRGH RI ZDWHUGLVSHUVDO´:.O )RULQVWDQFH³ZDWHUOLOLHV IORZHUVPDNHDIUXLWWKDWIORDWVLQWKHZDWHU IRUDZKLOHDQGWKHQGURSVGRZQWRWKHERWWRPWRWDNHURRWRQWKHIORRURI WKHSRQG7KHVHHGVRISDOPWUHHVFDQDOVREHGLVSHUVHGE\ZDWHU,IWKH\ JURZ QHDU RFHDQV WKH VHHGV FDQ EH WUDQVSRUWHG E\ RFHDQ FXUUHQWV RYHU ORQJ GLVWDQFHV DOORZLQJ WKH VHHGV WR EH GLVSHUVHG DV IDU DV RWKHU FRQWLQHQWV7KLVLVWKHURDGWKHSDOPWUHHVXVHWRPRYHLWVVHHGVFRFRQXWV WRWKHLUQHZKRPH´:.O 2WKHUSODQWVOLNH³PDQJURYHWUHHVOLYHULJKWLQWKHZDWHU7KHLUVHHGV IDOOIURPWKHWUHHDQG JURZURRWVDV VRRQDVWKH\WRXFKDQ\ NLQGRIVRLO 'XULQJORZWLGHWKH\PLJKWIDOOLQVRLOLQVWHDGRIZDWHUDQGVWDUWJURZLQJ ULJKW ZKHUH WKH\ IHOO ,I WKH ZDWHU OHYHO LV KLJK KRZHYHU WKH\ FDQ EH FDUULHG IDU DZD\ IURP ZKHUH WKH\ IHOO 0DQJURYH WUHHV RIWHQ PDNH OLWWOH LVODQGVDVGLUWDQGRWKHUWKLQJVFROOHFWLQWKHLUURRWVPDNLQJOLWWOHERGLHVRI ODQG´:.O-)XOEULJKW E 'LVSHUVDOE\DQLPDOV 6HHGGLVSHUVDOE\DQLPDOVFDQVKRZXSLQGLIIHUHQWZD\V 7KH ILUVW ZD\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ DQLPDOV WR EH LOOXVWUDWHG KHUH LV FDOOHG ³HSL]RRFKRU\´ ZKLFK UHIHUV WR VHHG WUDQVSRUW ³RQ WKH RXWVLGH RI
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
YHUWHEUDWH DQLPDOV PRVWO\ PDPPDOV «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´ :.O$6RUHQVRQ-0DOR 7KHVHFRQGZD\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDOE\DQLPDOVWREHLOOXVWUDWHGKHUHLV FDOOHG ³HQGR]RRFKRU\´ ZKLFK UHIHUV WR ³VHHG GLVSHUVDO YLD LQJHVWLRQ´ E\ ³YHUWHEUDWH DQLPDOV PRVWO\ ELUGV DQG PDPPDOV ´ HVSHFLDOO\ IRU ³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´ :. O - 6PDOOZRRG'&RUEHWW-7HUERUJK&&KDSPDQ 7KH WKLUG ZD\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ DQLPDOV WR EH LOOXVWUDWHG KHUH LV FDOOHG ³P\UPHFRFKRU\´ ZKLFK LV ³VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ DQWV´ IRU ³PDQ\ VKUXEV RI WKH VRXWKHUQ KHPLVSKHUH RU XQGHUVWRUH\ KHUEV RI WKH QRUWKHUQ KHPLVSKHUH6HHGVRIP\UPHFRFKRURXVSODQWVKDYHDOLSLGULFKDWWDFKPHQW FDOOHGWKHHODLRVRPHZKLFKDWWUDFWVDQWV$QWVFDUU\VXFKVHHGVLQWRWKHLU FRORQLHVIHHGWKHHODLRVRPHWRWKHLUODUYDHDQGGLVFDUGWKHRWKHUZLVHLQWDFW VHHG LQ DQ XQGHUJURXQG FKDPEHU 0\UPHFRFKRU\ LV WKXV D FRHYROYHG PXWXDOLVWLF UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SODQWV DQG VHHGGLVSHUVHU DQWV 0\UPHFRFKRU\KDVLQGHSHQGHQWO\HYROYHGDWOHDVWWLPHVLQIORZHULQJ
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
SODQWVDQGLVHVWLPDWHGWREHSUHVHQWLQDWOHDVWVSHFLHVEXWOLNHO\ XS WR RU RI DOO VSHFLHV RI IORZHULQJ SODQWV 0\UPHFRFKRURXV SODQWV DUH PRVW IUHTXHQW LQ WKH I\QERV YHJHWDWLRQ RI WKH &DSH )ORULVWLF 5HJLRQ RI 6RXWK $IULFD WKH NZRQJDQ YHJHWDWLRQ DQG RWKHU GU\ KDELWDW W\SHVRI$XVWUDOLDGU\IRUHVWVDQGJUDVVODQGVRIWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQUHJLRQ DQG QRUWKHUQ WHPSHUDWH IRUHVWV RI ZHVWHUQ (XUDVLD DQG HDVWHUQ 1RUWK $PHULFDZKHUHXSWRRIXQGHUVWRUH\KHUEVDUHP\UPHFRFKRURXV´ :.O6/HQJ\HO,*LODGL 7KHIRXUWK ZD\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDOE\DQLPDOVWREHLOOXVWUDWHGKHUHLV FDOOHG ³KRDUGLQJ´ ZKLFK UHIHUV WKH EHKDYLRU RI VRPH ³VHHG SUHGDWRUV ZKLFK LQFOXGH PDQ\ URGHQWV VXFK DV VTXLUUHOV DQG VRPH ELUGV VXFK DV MD\V ´ZKR³PD\«GLVSHUVHVHHGVE\KRDUGLQJWKHVHHGVLQKLGGHQFDFKHV 7KHVHHGVLQFDFKHVDUHXVXDOO\ ZHOOSURWHFWHGIURPRWKHU VHHGSUHGDWRUV DQGLIOHIWXQHDWHQZLOOJURZLQWRQHZSODQWV´:.O3)RUJHW $QGWKHILIWKZD\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDOE\DQLPDOVWREHLOOXVWUDWHGKHUHLV DQXQXVXDOZD\RIVHHGVWR³EHVHFRQGDULO\GLVSHUVHGIURPVHHGVGHSRVLWHG E\ SULPDU\ DQLPDO GLVSHUVHUV )RU H[DPSOH GXQJ EHHWOHV DUH NQRZQ WR GLVSHUVH VHHGV IURP FOXPSV RI IHFHV LQ WKH SURFHVV RI FROOHFWLQJ GXQJ WR IHHGWKHLUODUYDH´:.O($QGUHVHQ E 'LVSHUVDOE\KXPDQV %HVLGHV VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ DQLPDOV²LW FDQ DOVR EH GRQH E\ KXPDQV ZKLFKLVNQRZQDV³DQWKURSRFKRU\´:.O )RULQVWDQFH³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a P VLQJOHV FDVHV!NP ´:.O0:LFKPDQQ6%XOORFN0 YRQGHU/LSSH %HQHILWVRI6HHG'LVSHUVDO ,Q JHQHUDO VHHG GLVSHUVDO SURGXFHV VHYHUDO EHQHILWV &RQVLGHU IRU LOOXVWUDWLRQVRPHPDLQH[DPSOHVEHORZDVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH )LUVWO\³VHHGVXUYLYDOLVRIWHQKLJKHUDZD\IURPWKHSDUHQWSODQW7KLV KLJKHUVXUYLYDOPD\UHVXOWIURPWKHDFWLRQVRIGHQVLW\GHSHQGHQWVHHGDQG VHHGOLQJ SUHGDWRUV DQG SDWKRJHQV ZKLFK RIWHQ WDUJHW WKH KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIVHHGVEHQHDWKDGXOWV&RPSHWLWLRQZLWKDGXOWSODQWVPD\
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
DOVR EH ORZHU ZKHQ VHHGV DUH WUDQVSRUWHG DZD\ IURP WKHLU SDUHQW´ :. O.+DUPV 6HFRQGO\ ³VHHG GLVSHUVDO«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´:.O':HQQ\-)HGULDQL 7KLUGO\ ³VHHGV GLVSHUVHG E\ DQWV P\UPHFRFKRU\ DUH QRW RQO\ GLVSHUVHG WR VKRUW GLVWDQFHV EXW DUH DOVR EXULHG XQGHUJURXQG E\ WKH DQWV 7KHVHVHHGVFDQWKXVDYRLGDGYHUVHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV VXFKDV ILUHRU GURXJKWUHDFKQXWULHQWULFKPLFURVLWHVDQGVXUYLYHORQJHUWKDQRWKHUVHHGV 7KHVH IHDWXUHV DUH SHFXOLDU WR P\UPHFRFKRU\ ZKLFK PD\ WKXV SURYLGH DGGLWLRQDO EHQHILWV QRW SUHVHQW LQ RWKHU GLVSHUVDO PRGHV´ :. O 6 /HQJ\HO $QG ILQDOO\ ³DW DQRWKHU VFDOH VHHG GLVSHUVDO PD\ DOORZ SODQWV WR FRORQL]H YDFDQW KDELWDWV DQG HYHQ QHZ JHRJUDSKLF UHJLRQV´ :. O 30DQ]DQR &RQVHTXHQFHVRI6HHG'LVSHUVDO 7KHVH EHQHILWV RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO WKXV KDYH FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU ³WKH HFRORJ\DQGHYROXWLRQRISODQWV´:.O &RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQD IHZH[DPSOHVEHORZDVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH )LUVWO\ ³GLVSHUVDO LV QHFHVVDU\ IRU VSHFLHV PLJUDWLRQV DQG LQ UHFHQW WLPHV GLVSHUVDO DELOLW\ LV DQ LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU LQ ZKHWKHU RU QRW D VSHFLHV WUDQVSRUWHGWRDQHZKDELWDWE\KXPDQVZLOOEHFRPHDQLQYDVLYHVSHFLHV´ :.O5/HQVLQN 6HFRQGO\ ³GLVSHUVDO LV«SUHGLFWHG WR SOD\ D PDMRU UROH LQ WKH RULJLQ DQG PDLQWHQDQFH RI VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ )RU H[DPSOH P\UPHFRFKRU\ LQFUHDVHGWKHUDWHRIGLYHUVLILFDWLRQ PRUHWKDQWZRIROGLQSODQWJURXSVLQ ZKLFKLWKDVHYROYHGEHFDXVHP\UPHFRFKRURXVOLQHDJHVFRQWDLQPRUHWKDQ WZLFH DV PDQ\ VSHFLHV DV WKHLU QRQP\UPHFRFKRURXV VLVWHU JURXSV 'LVSHUVDORIVHHGVDZD\IURPWKHSDUHQWRUJDQLVPKDVDFHQWUDOUROHLQWZR PDMRU WKHRULHV IRU KRZ ELRGLYHUVLW\ LV PDLQWDLQHG LQ QDWXUDO HFRV\VWHPV WKH-DQ]HQ&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVDQGUHFUXLWPHQWOLPLWDWLRQ´:.O. +DUPV6/HQJ\HO
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
$QGILQDOO\³VHHGGLVSHUVDOLVHVVHQWLDOLQDOORZLQJIRUHVWPLJUDWLRQ´ :.O 3UREOHPVZLWKWKH6WXG\RI6HHG'LVSHUVDO +RZHYHUIRUWKHFULWLFVWKLVVWXG\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDOKDVVRPHPDMRU SUREOHPV &RQVLGHU IRU LOOXVWUDWLRQ D IHZ H[DPSOHV EHORZ DV VXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH )LUVWO\RQHPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDOLVWKDWLWFDQ EHXQIDOVLILDEOH )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³LWLVWULFN\WRIRUPFRQFOXVLRQVUHJDUGLQJ WKHDFFXUDF\RIWKH-DQ]HQ&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVDVLW LVGLIILFXOW WRIDOVLI\ 7KLV LV EHFDXVH«KHDY\ SUHGDWLRQ >IRU VHHG GLVSHUVDO@ PD\ NHHS VRPH VSHFLHV UDUH DQG ZLGHO\ VSDFHG DQG WKHVH VSHFLHV PD\ DOVR EH WKH EHVW FRPSHWLWRUV,IVRWKHVHVSHFLHVDUHPRVWOLNHO\WRIRUPGHQVHDJJUHJDWLRQV WKDWZRXOGUHGXFHGLYHUVLW\LQORFDODUHDV%XWGXHWRWKHLUUDULW\RUDEHOLHI WKDW UDUH VSHFLHV DUH QRW UHJXODWHG E\ GHQVLW\GHSHQGHQFH WKHVH VSHFLHV PD\EHWKHRQHVOHDVWOLNHO\WREHVWXGLHG7KLV PHDQVWKDWWKH IDLOXUHWR ILQG -DQ]HQ&RQQHOO HIIHFWV IRU ZKDW FRXOG EH KXQGUHGV RI WUHH VSHFLHV GRHV QRW UHMHFW WKH K\SRWKHVLV´ EXW ³HFRORJLVWV DUH PLVVLQJ WKH IHZ NH\ VSHFLHVZKHUHLWGRHVDSSO\´:.P:&DUVRQ 6HFRQGO\DQRWKHUPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDOLVWKDW LWLVDOVRGLIILFXOWWRFRQILUPWKH-DQ]HQ&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVQRWMXVWWKDWLW LVXQIDOVLILDEOHDVLVWKHFDVHLQWKHILUVWFULWLFLVPDERYH )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³WKH-DQ]HQ&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVH[SODLQV GLYHUVLW\DWDFRPPXQLW\ZLGHVFDOHEXWPRVWVWXGLHVKDYHRQO\ORRNHGDW DVLQJOHVSHFLHVRUDORFDOL]HGUHJLRQ0RVWVWXGLHVGRQRWWHVWWKHGLYHUVLW\ SUHGLFWLRQ DQG GLG QRW GHWHUPLQH WKH FDXVHV IRU SDWWHUQV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK -DQ]HQ&RQQHOO HIIHFWV $V >-@ :ULJKW SRLQWHG RXW ILHOG PHDVXUHPHQWV RQO\ GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW QLFKH GLIIHUHQFHV -DQ]HQ&RQQHOO HIIHFWV DQG QHJDWLYH GHQVLW\ GHSHQGHQFH RFFXU ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU VSHFLHV FRH[LVWHQFH DQG SODQW GLYHUVLW\ UHPDLQ FRQMHFWXUDO ´ :. P : &DUVRQ 7KLUGO\ VWLOO DQRWKHU PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO LV WKDWPDQ\RILWVILQGLQJVDUHQRWVRXQG )RU LQVWDQFH /DXUHQ +\DWW DQG RWKHUV ³H[DPLQHG WKH K\SRWKHVLV DFURVV D QXPEHU RI WUHH VSHFLHV UDWKHU WKDQ IRFXVLQJ RQ WKH HIIHFWVRQMXVWRQH DQGIRXQGQRVXSSRUWIRUWKHGLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFHRI WKHK\SRWKHVLVDQGFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVZDVQRW DPHFKDQLVPIRUGLYHUVLW\´DQGWKLVLVWUXHHYHQWKRXJKWKH\DOVRIRXQG WKDW ³LQ WHPSHUDWH VHWWLQJV GLVWDQFH IURP SDUHQW UHGXFHG VXUYLYRUVKLS´ QRWLQFUHDVLQJLWDFFRUGLQJWRWKHWKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLV EXW³LQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WURSLFDO VHWWLQJV WKHUH ZDV D VOLJKW SRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH LPSURYHG FRPSHWLWLYH DELOLW\ RI VHHGV DQG GLVWDQFH IURP SDUHQW´ :. P )RXUWKO\DQDGGLWLRQDOPDLQFULWLFLVPRIWKHVWXG\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDOLV WKDW WKHUH LV QR PHDQLQJIXO SDWWHUQ LQ WKH GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH RI WKH -DQ]HQ&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV IRU ELRGLYHUVLW\ RU WKDW WKLQJV VHHP D ELW UDQGRPLQVWHDG )RULQVWDQFH³DVWXG\E\%XUNH\IRXQGWKDWVHHGSUHGDWLRQGLG QRW IROORZ D SDWWHUQ VXSSRUWLQJ WKDW RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV DORQJDPHDQLQJIXOVFDOH6HHGVZLWKLQPHWUHIURPWKHWUXQNZHUHKLJKO\ SUHGDWHG+RZHYHUVHHGVUHDFKHGWKHLUSHDNGHQVLW\ZKLOHVWLOOXQGHUWKH FDQRS\RIWKHLUSDUHQW´:.P7%XUNH\ $QG ILIWKO\ DQRWKHU DGGLWLRQDO PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDOLVWKDWVHHGGLVSHUVDOLVRQO\RQHPHFKDQLVPDPRQJPDQ\RWKHUV WRDFFRXQWIRUELRGLYHUVLW\ )RULQVWDQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³DQXPEHURIPHFKDQLVPVXQGHUVFRUHWKH FRH[LVWHQFHRIVLPLODUVSHFLHVDQGWKXVFDXVHELRGLYHUVLW\LQHFRV\VWHPV,W LVSRVVLEOHWKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLV>IRUVHHGGLVSHUVDO@LVDSSOLFDEOH RQO\IRUVRPHVSHFLHVGHSHQGLQJRQVSHFLHVFKDUDFWHULVWLFV´:.P 5 1DWKDQ *RRG FDQGLGDWHV RI WKHVH RWKHU PHFKDQLVPV LQFOXGH ³GLVHDVH´³SUHGDWLRQ´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
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
V\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\ SULQFLSOH WKH VRIWQHVVKDUGQHVV SULQFLSOH WKH VHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVVSULQFLSOHWKHUHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQSULQFLSOHWKH VDPHGLIIHUHQFHSULQFLSOHDQGWKHVWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQSULQFLSOH )RU LQVWDQFH LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH IRUPDOQHVVLQIRUPDOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUHLVIRUPDOQHVVHJWKHIRUPDOORJLFDOUHTXLUHPHQWRIVRXQGQHVVDQG FRPSOHWHQHVVLQDV\VWHPRILGHDVDVLQWKHVWXG\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDO WKHUH LV LQIRUPDOQHVV HJ WKH QRQIRUPDO H[LVWHQFH RI XQVRXQGQHVV DQG LQFRPSOHWHQHVV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO DV VKRZQ LQ WKH FULWLFLVPV WKDW LW FDQ EH XQIDOVLILDEOH WKDW LW LV DOVR GLIILFXOW WR FRQILUP WKH -DQ]HQ &RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVWKDWPDQ\RILWVILQGLQJVDUHQRWVRXQGHWF $QGWKH UHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH DEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV DEVROXWHQHVV HJ WKH DEVROXWH YLHZ RI WKH GHIHQGHUV RI WKH -DQ]HQ± &RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV LQ UHJDUG WR ELRGLYHUVLW\ RQ WKH EDVLV RI GLVWDQFH GHSHQGHQFH WKHUH LV UHODWLYHQHVV HJ ZKDW LV ULJKW IRU WKH -DQ]HQ± &RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV LQ UHJDUG WR ELRGLYHUVLW\ RQ WKH EDVLV RI GLVWDQFH GHSHQGHQFHLVQRWQHFHVVDULO\VRIRUWKHFULWLFVZKRDUJXHGLQVWHDGWKDWD QXPEHURIPHFKDQLVPVXQGHUVFRUHWKHFRH[LVWHQFHRIVLPLODUVSHFLHVDQG WKXVFDXVHELRGLYHUVLW\LQHFRV\VWHPV´VR³WKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLV >IRU VHHG GLVSHUVDO@ LV DSSOLFDEOH RQO\ IRU VRPH VSHFLHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ VSHFLHVFKDUDFWHULVWLFV´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVSDUWLDOLW\HJ WKHSDUWLDOYLHZRIWKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVLQUHJDUGWRELRGLYHUVLW\ RQ WKH EDVLV RI GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH WKHUH LV WRWDOLW\ HJ WKH PRUH KROLVWLF YLHZ RI ELRGLYHUVLW\ VXFK WKDW WKH ZKROH LV QRW WKH VXP RI LWV SDUWVWKDWLVLWFDQQRWEHUHGXFHGWRWKH VXPRIRSSRVLQJ YLHZVOLNHWKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV DQG LWV FULWLFV VLQFH WKHUH ZLOO HPHUJH QHZ YLHZV LQ WKH IXWXUH QRW \HW NQRZQ WRGD\ EHVLGHV WKH GLIIHUHQW FULWLFLVPV DIRUHFLWHG ZKLFK KDGDOUHDG\ UDLVHGDORWRITXHVWLRQVDERXWWKHGLIIHUHQW YLHZV $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHGLFWDELOLW\HJWKHSUHGLFWDEOHWHQGHQF\RIWKRVHLQWKHVWXG\RIVHHG GLVSHUVDOWRDUJXHWKDW³VHHGVXUYLYDOLVRIWHQKLJKHUDZD\IURPWKHSDUHQW SODQW´ WKHUHLV XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\HJWKH PRUHGLIILFXOWWDVN IRUWKRVHLQ WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO WR SUHGLFW H[DFWO\ WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK ³VHHG VXUYLYDO LV RIWHQ KLJKHU DZD\ IURP WKH SDUHQW SODQW´ EHFDXVH WKH FULWLFV OLNH /DXUHQ +\DWW DQG RWKHUV ³H[DPLQHG WKH K\SRWKHVLV«DQG IRXQG QR VXSSRUWIRUWKHGLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFHRIWKH K\SRWKHVLV´ $QGWKHUHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH H[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV H[SOLFDELOLW\HJWKHH[SODQDWLRQRIELRGLYHUVLW\RQWKHEDVLVRIGLVWDQFH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
GHSHQGHQFH E\ WKH GHIHQGHUV RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV WKHUH LV LQH[SOLFDELOLW\HJWKHODFNRIVXIILFLHQWH[SODQDWLRQE\WKHGHIHQGHUVRI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV RI ZK\ ELRGLYHUVLW\ LV QHFHVVDULO\ H[SODLQHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH VLQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV ³D QXPEHURIPHFKDQLVPVXQGHUVFRUHWKHFRH[LVWHQFHRIVLPLODUVSHFLHVDQG WKXV FDXVH ELRGLYHUVLW\ LQ HFRV\VWHPV´ DQG ³WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV >IRU VHHG GLVSHUVDO@ LV DSSOLFDEOH RQO\ IRU VRPH VSHFLHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ VSHFLHV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILFWLRQUHDOLW\ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILFWLRQ HJ WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV LQVRIDU DV WKH FULWLFV OLNH/DXUHQ+\DWWDQGRWKHUV³H[DPLQHGWKHK\SRWKHVLVDFURVVDQXPEHURI WUHH VSHFLHV«UDWKHU WKDQ IRFXVLQJ RQ WKH HIIHFWV RQ MXVW RQH«DQG IRXQG QRVXSSRUWIRUWKHGLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFHRIWKHK\SRWKHVLV´ WKHUHLVUHDOLW\ HJWKHUHDOLVWLFDVSHFWRIWKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVLQVRIDUDVWKH VWXG\ E\ +\DWW DQG RWKHUV IRXQG WKDW ³LQ WURSLFDO VHWWLQJV WKHUH ZDV D VOLJKW SRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH LPSURYHG FRPSHWLWLYH DELOLW\ RI VHHGVDQGGLVWDQFHIURPSDUHQW´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGV
WUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH ILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV ILQLWHQHVV HJ WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH W\SHV RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO QDPHO\ ³DXWRFKRU\´DQG³DOORFKRU\´VHHGGLVSHUVDOV WKHUHLVWUDQVILQLWHQHVVHJ WKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURIDOOWKHLQGLYLGXDOVHHGVLQWKHKLVWRU\RIQDWXUHRQ HDUWK ZKLFK KDYH HYHU EHHQ GLVSHUVHG WKURXJK WKH PHFKDQLVPV RI ³DXWRFKRU\´ DQG ³DOORFKRU\´ GLVSHUVDOV $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH SUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV SUHFLVHQHVV HJ WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI IRXU W\SHV RI ³DOORFKRU\´ VHHG GLVSHUVDOV LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG WKHUH LV YDJXHQHVV HJ WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH IRXU W\SHV RI ³DOORFKRU\´ VHHG GLVSHUVDOVLQWKHDUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGVLQFHLWLVQRWFOHDUZK\WKHUHPXVWEH RQO\QRWDQGVRRQ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VLPSOHQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ WKH DGYRFDWHV WKHUHLVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVVHJWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUHFRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLVRIVHHGGLVSHUVDOE\FKDOOHQJLQJWKHFODLPVDQGDVVXPSWLRQVDV VKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFVDVFLWHG $QGWKHUHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHRSHQQHVVKLGGHQQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVRSHQQHVV HJ VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ ZLQG LQ WKH RSHQ DLU ZKHQ ³VHHGV«IORDW RQ WKH EUHH]H´ RXWGRRU WKHUH LV KLGGHQQHVV HJ VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ DQLPDOV
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
KLGGHQ XQGHUJURXQG WKURXJK ³P\UPHFRFKRU\´ ZKHQ ³DQWV FDUU\ VXFK VHHGVLQWRWKHLUFRORQLHVIHHGWKHHODLRVRPHWRWKHLUODUYDHDQGGLVFDUGWKH RWKHUZLVH LQWDFW VHHG LQ DQ XQGHUJURXQG FKDPEHU´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHGHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVGHQVHQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ DQLPDOV LQ ³DQHSL]RRFKRURXVSODQW´NQRZQDV³7ULIROLXPDQJXVWLIROLXPDVSHFLHVRI 2OG :RUOG FORYHU ZKLFK DGKHUHV WR DQLPDO IXU E\ PHDQV RI VWLII KDLUV FRYHULQJ WKH VHHG´ WKHUH LV HPSWLQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ DQLPDOV LQ ³ZDWHU OLOLHV IORZHUV´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±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV WKDW ³VHHG VXUYLYDO LV RIWHQ KLJKHU DZD\ IURP WKH SDUHQW SODQW´ WKHUH LV FKDRV HJ WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF RU UDQGRP YLHZ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI ³D VWXG\E\%XUNH\´ZKLFK³IRXQGWKDWVHHGSUHGDWLRQGLGQRWIROORZD SDWWHUQ VXSSRUWLQJ WKDW RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV DORQJ D PHDQLQJIXOVFDOH´VLQFH³VHHGVZLWKLQPHWUHIURPWKHWUXQNZHUHKLJKO\ SUHGDWHG´ EXW ³VHHGV UHDFKHG WKHLU SHDN GHQVLW\ ZKLOH VWLOO XQGHU WKH FDQRS\RIWKHLUSDUHQW´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VORZQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU VSHHG RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ KXPDQV ³RQ VKRHV >XSWRNP@ WKHUHLVTXLFNQHVVHJWKHUHODWLYHO\TXLFNHUVSHHGRIVHHG GLVSHUVDOE\KXPDQV³E\FDUV>UHJXODUO\aPVLQJOHVFDVHV!NP@´ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVH[SDQVLRQ HJ WKH UHODWLYH H[SDQVLRQ RI VHHG VSHFLHV DV LQ WKH FDVH RI ³LQYDVLYH VSHFLHV´LQQHZKDELWDWV WKHUHLVFRQWUDFWLRQHJWKHUHODWLYHGHFOLQHRI VHHGVSHFLHVDVLQ WKHFDVHRIWKH ³VSHFLHV LQWKH $VWHUDFHDHRQLVODQGV´ ZKLFK³WHQGHGWRKDYHUHGXFHGGLVSHUVDOFDSDELOLWLHV>LHODUJHUVHHGPDVV DQGVPDOOHUSDSSXV@UHODWLYHWRWKHVDPH VSHFLHVRQWKH PDLQODQG´ $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV WKHRU\ HJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV IRU GLVWDQFH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
GHSHQGHQFH LQ VHHG GLVSHUVDO WKHUH LV SUD[LV HJ WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV WR GLIIHUHQW WHVWV DV VKRZQ LQWKHZRUNVE\7%XUNH\>@DQG/+\DWW>@IRUH[DPSOH $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVFRQYHQWLRQ HJ WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO YLHZ DERXW WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV IRU GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH LQ VHHG GLVSHUVDO WKHUH LV QRYHOW\ HJ WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO YLHZ DERXW WKH -DQ]HQ± &RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVE\WKHQHZLGHDRI³DVWXG\E\%XUNH\´ZKLFK ³IRXQGWKDWVHHGSUHGDWLRQGLGQRWIROORZDSDWWHUQVXSSRUWLQJWKDWRIWKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV DORQJ D PHDQLQJIXO VFDOH´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³VHHGOLQJ SUHGDWRUV DQG SDWKRJHQV«RIWHQ WDUJHW WKH KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI VHHGV EHQHDWK DGXOWV´ DQG HDW WKHP :. O . +DUPV $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHVRIWQHVVKDUGQHVVSULQFLSOHLIWKHUHLVVRIWQHVVHJ WKH ³FRHYROYHG PXWXDOLVWLF UHODWLRQVKLS LQ ZKLFK D SODQW VXUURXQGV VHHGV ZLWKDQHGLEOHQXWULWLRXVIUXLWDVDJRRGIRRGIRUDQLPDOVWKDWFRQVXPHLW´ DQGWKHVH³ELUGVDQGPDPPDOVDUHWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWVHHGGLVSHUVHUV´LQ UHWXUQ WKHUH LV KDUGQHVV HJ ³VHHGOLQJ SUHGDWRUV DQG SDWKRJHQV«RIWHQ WDUJHWWKHKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIVHHGVEHQHDWKDGXOWV´DQGHDWWKHP $QG WKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVV SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VHULRXVQHVV HJ WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH RI ELRGLYHUVLW\ WKHUH LV SOD\IXOQHVV HJ WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW YLHZV OLNH WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV ZKLFK ZDV ODWHU FULWLFL]HG E\ WKH FULWLFV DV XQIDOVLDEOH XQVRXQG XQFRQILUPDEOH HWF DV GLVFXVVHG HDUOLHU $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVR KROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH UHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV UHJUHVVLRQ HJ WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV WKHUH LV SURJUHVVLRQ
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
HJ WKH SURJUHVV PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO DV VKRZQ LQ LWV FRQWULEXWLRQ WR D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH LQ VHHG GLVSHUVDODIRUHFLWHG $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH ,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKH VDPHGLIIHUHQFH SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VLPLODULW\ LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV UHJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV IRU WKH UROH RI GLVWDQFH GHSHQGHQFHLQELRGLYHUVLW\RUE\WKHH[SORUDWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHK\SRWKHVHV IRURWKHUPHFKDQLVPVOLNHGLVHDVHSUHGDWLRQHWFWRFDXVHELRGLYHUVLW\LQ HFRV\VWHPV WKHUH LV GLIIHUHQFH LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJDQGFRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVE\WKHDFFHSWDQFHRI WKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVIRUDUHODWLYHO\PRUHQDUURZZRUOGYLHZ² EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYH K\SRWKHVHV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUHKROLVWLFZRUOGYLHZ $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFLSOH LI WKHUH LV VWDELOLW\ HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV LQ WKH V ZKHQ LW DUJXHG IRU WKH UROH RI GLVWDQFH GHSHQGHQFHLQELRGLYHUVLW\ WKHUHLVUHDFWLRQHJWKHVWDEOHFRQGLWLRQRI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV LQ WKH V WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ LW ZDV FKDOOHQJHG E\ GLIIHUHQW VWXGLHV DV VRPH HYHQ VXJJHVWHG WKDW ³D QXPEHU RI PHFKDQLVPV XQGHUVFRUH WKH FRH[LVWHQFH RI VLPLODU VSHFLHV DQG WKXV FDXVH ELRGLYHUVLW\ LQ HFRV\VWHPV´ VR ³WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLV>IRUVHHGGLVSHUVDO@LVDSSOLFDEOHRQO\IRUVRPH VSHFLHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ VSHFLHV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV´ $QG WKH UHYHUVH GLUHFWLRQ DOVRKROGVWUXH
7KH2WKHUVDQG6RFLHW\ 7KH 2WKHUV ZKHQ H[DPLQHG IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI VRFLHW\ FDQ LOOXPLQDWH WKHLU SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ LQ D SRZHUIXO ZD\ DQG WKLV FDQ EH VKRZQ E\ ZD\ RI WZR FDVHVWXGLHVQDPHO\ WKH2WKHUVFRQIOLFWLQJLQWHUHVWVDQGGLDVSRUD SROLWLFV DQG WKH 2WKHUV VXUYLYDO DQG VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ²WR EH DGGUHVVHGKHUHDIWHU
7KH2WKHUV&RQIOLFWLQJ,QWHUHVWVDQG'LDVSRUD3ROLWLFV $Q H[FHOOHQW ZD\ WR HYDOXDWH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RU LPSRVVLELOLW\ DQG GHVLUDELOLW\ RU XQGHVLUDELOLW\ RI WKH 2WKHUV IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI VRFLHW\LVWRH[SORUHWKH2WKHUVFRQIOLFWLQJLQWHUHVWVDQGGLDVSRUDSROLWLFV
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7KHWHUP³GLDVSRUD´UHIHUVWR³DWUDQVQDWLRQDOFRPPXQLW\WKDWGHILQHG LWVHOIDVDVLQJXODUHWKQLFJURXSEDVHGXSRQLWVVKDUHGLGHQWLW\'LDVSRUDV DUHFUHDWHGE\DIRUFHGRULQGXFHGKLVWRULFDOHPLJUDWLRQIURPDQRULJLQDO KRPHODQG 'LDVSRUDV SODFH JUHDW LPSRUWDQFH RQ WKHLU KRPHODQGV EHFDXVH RI WKHLU ORQJ KLVWRU\ DQG GHHS FXOWXUDO DVVRFLDWLRQ 7KH LPSRUWDQW RI D KRPHODQGHVSHFLDOO\LILWKDVEHHQORVWFDQUHVXOWLQDQHWKQLFQDWLRQDOLVW PRYHPHQWZLWKLQWKHGLDVSRUDRIWHQUHVXOWLQJLQWKHUHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIWKH KRPHODQG %XW HYHQ ZKHQ KRPHODQGV DUH HVWDEOLVKHG LW LV UDUH IRU WKH FRPSOHWH GLDVSRUD SRSXODWLRQ WR LPPLJUDWH WR WKH KRPHODQG OHDYLQJ D UHPDLQLQJ GLDVSRUD FRPPXQLW\ ZKLFK RIWHQ UHWDLQV VLJQLILFDQW HPRWLRQDO DWWDFKPHQW WR LWV IRUHLJQ NLQ DQG KRPHODQG´ :. SS 7 $PEURVLR ,QWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH2WKHUVDQGWKH6DPHDVLQWURGXFHGLQ6HF WKHWHUP³WKH2WKHUV´LQWKLVVHFWLRQUHIHUVWRWKHPHPEHUVRIDGLDVSRUDLQ DKRVWFRXQWU\DQGWKHWHUP³WKH6DPH´UHIHUVWRWKRVHLQDKRVWFRXQWU\ ZKR KDYH WR GHDO ZLWK WKH PHPEHUV RI WKLV GLDVSRUD DQG FRQYHUVHO\ WKRVH LQ D KRPH FRXQWU\ ZKR KDYH WR GHDO ZLWK WKHLU IRUHLJQ NLQV LQ WKH KRVWFRXQWU\ZKRKDGOHIWWKHLUKRPHODQGORQJWLPHDJR ,QJHQHUDO³GLDVSRUDVDUHSROLWLFDOO\DFWLYHLQWKUHHVHSDUDWHUHDOPV´ QDPHO\ D ³WKHLU RXWVLGHU LQIOXHQFH RQ WKHLU KRPHODQG V GRPHVWLF SROLWLFV´ E ³WKH H[HUFLVH RI WKHLU GRPHVWLF SROLWLFDO ULJKWV ZLWKLQ WKHLU KRVW VWDWHV´ DQG F ³WKHLU LQGHSHQGHQW LQYROYHPHQW DW WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO OHYHO´DVGLVFXVVHGEHORZ:.SS +RPHODQG 7KH ILUVW SROLWLFDO VSKHUH RI GLDVSRUD WR EH FRQVLGHUHG KHUH LV LQ UHODWLRQWRKRPHODQGDVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH D 6LJQLILFDQFHWRWKH'LDVSRUD,GHQWLW\ 7KH ILUVW LPSRUWDQW DVSHFW RI WKH SROLWLFDO VSKHUH RI GLDVSRUD LQ UHODWLRQWRKRPHODQGKDVWRGRZLWK³GLDVSRUDLGHQWLW\´ZKLFKPHDQVWKDW ³DOO WUDQVQDWLRQDO GLDVSRUDV UHWDLQ REMHFWLYH FRPSRQHQWV RI D FRKHUHQW HWKQLF LGHQWLW\ VXFK DV D VKDUHG KLVWRU\ DQG IRONZD\V VXFK DV IRRG DQG PXVLF LQ VRPH FDVHV GLDVSRUDV FDQ VKDUH WKH REMHFWLYH UHDOLW\ RI D WHUULWRULDOKRPHODQG:KHQWKHVHHWKQLFKRPHODQGVH[LVWWKH\VHUYHDV WKH SK\VLFDOHPERGLPHQW DWHUULWRULDOFXOWXUDODQGVRFLDOIRFXVIRUWKHHWKQLF LGHQWLW\RIWKHGLDVSRUDFRPPXQLW\ ´:.SS $V LWV@ SXEOLF PD\ H[SHFW GLDVSRUD OHDGHUV WR SHUVXDGH RU SUHVVXUH WKHLU KRPHODQG JRYHUQPHQW WR DOWHU LWV SROLFLHV LQ D PRUH FRQJHQLDO GLUHFWLRQ´ :. SS 7KLVWKHQPHDQVWKDW³WKHIDLOXUHRIWKHGLDVSRUDFRPPXQLW\WRDFWDV GHVLUHGE\WKHKRVWVWDWH FDQLPSLQJHVRQWKHGLDVSRUD VDELOLW\WRDFKLHYH FKHULVKHGSROLWLFDOJRDOV ´:.SS7KH@ $UPHQLDQ$PHULFDQ OREE\LQJ JURXSV VXFFHVVIXOO\ SDVV D FRQJUHVVLRQDOEDQRQ86DLGWR$]HUEDLMDQNQRZQDV6HFWLRQRI WKH )UHHGRP 6XSSRUW $FW WKDW KDV ZLWKVWRRG PDQ\ \HDUV RI :KLWH +RXVHHIIRUWVWRKDYHLWRYHUWXUQHG´ ³-HZLVK$PHULFDQOREE\LQJRUJDQL]DWLRQVKDYHSUHVVHGIRUWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHV WR PRYH LWV HPEDVV\ LQ ,VUDHO IURP 7HO $YLY WR -HUXVDOHP DJDLQVW WKH ZLVKHV RI WKH 86 DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ DQG RIWHQ WKRVH RI WKH ,VUDHOLJRYHUQPHQWDVZHOO´ ³>7KH@ $PHULFDQ -HZLVK &RPPLWWHH DQG % QDL % ULWK ERWK GHYRWHG LPSUHVVLYH OREE\LQJ HIIRUWV WR HQFRXUDJH QHZO\ LQGHSHQGHQW SRVW 6RYLHWVWDWHVWRHVWDEOLVKGLSORPDWLFUHODWLRQVZLWK,VUDHO´
&KDSWHU7KH2WKHUVDQGWKHLU7ZLQ)DFHV
6XUHO\ WKHUH FDQ EH RWKHU H[DPSOHV EXW WKHVH DUH WKH RQHV SURYLGHG E\ 6KDLQ DQG:LWWHV E )RUHLJQ&XOWLYDWLRQRI'LDVSRUD,QIOXHQFH ,QRWKHUFDVHV³IRUHLJQJRYHUQPHQWVLQKRSHVRIFXUU\LQJIDYRUIURP GLVWDQWGLDVSRUDFRPPXQLWLHVEHOLHYHGWRZLHOGYDOXDEOHSROLWLFDOLQIOXHQFH LQWKHLUKRVWFRXQWLHVKDYHGLVSHQVHGJHQHURXVEHQHILWVWR ORFDOGLDVSRUD NLQRULPSURYHGUHODWLRQVZLWKWKHGLDVSRUD VKRPHODQG´:.SS )RU H[DPSOH 6KDLQ ³GHVFULEHV WKH $]HUEDLMDQ JRYHUQPHQW V SHUVLVWHQWIUXVWUDWLRQZLWKWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKH$UPHQLDQ$PHULFDQOREE\ LQ :DVKLQJWRQ DQG WKH ODFN RI D YLDEOH $]HUEDLMDQL$PHULFDQ GLDVSRUD SRSXODWLRQWRFRXQWHUWKH$UPHQLDQ VGRPHVWLFSUHVHQFH7KH$]HUEDLMDQL UHVSRQVHKDVEHHQWRFXOWLYDWH-HZLVKRUJDQL]DWLRQVLQ:DVKLQJWRQDVWKHLU FRXQWHUEDODQFLQJ DOOLHV WR WKH $UPHQLDQ$PHULFDQ RSSRVLWLRQ´ :. SS ,QIDFW³WKH$]HUEDLMDQLDPEDVVDGRUWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVGHVFULEHGKLV HIIRUWV´ OLNH WKLV ³:H XQGHUVWRRG WKDW ZH QHHG WR PDNH IULHQGV LQ WKLV FRXQWU\ :H NQRZ KRZ VWURQJ -HZLVK JURXSV DUH 7KH\ KDYH DVNHG XV DERXW WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI -HZV LQ RXU FRXQWU\ , KHOSHG WKHP WR JR WR $]HUEDLMDQ DQG RSHQ -HZLVK VFKRROV 7KH\ FDPH EDFN ZLWK >D@ JRRG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ>RIWKHFRQIOLFW@´:.SSFDQ@ FRDOHVFH LQWR NP SODQHWHVLPDOV´ IRU LQVWDQFH LQ 6HF WKH H[SODQDWLRQRI³WKHDELOLW\RIELUGVWRQDYLJDWHGXULQJ PLJUDWLRQV´RQWKH EDVLV RI HQGRJHQRXV IDFWRUV DV GLVFXVVHG HDUOLHU LQ 6HF WKH H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKRVH LQ WKH UHVHDUFK RQ ³SXVK IDFWRUV´ WKDW HPLJUDWLRQ RFFXUV EHFDXVH RI ³WKLQJV WKDW DUH XQIDYRXUDEOH DERXW WKH DUHD WKDW RQH OLYHVLQ´LQKRPHFRXQWULHVLQ6HFWKHH[SODQDWLRQE\WKRVHDJDLQVW FKHDSIRUHLJQODERUOLNH6DPXHO*RPSHUVWKDWWKHDFWZDVULJKWEHFDXVHLW ZDV WR SURWHFW GRPHVWLF ODERU DJDLQVW ³FKHDS ODERU WKDW LPPLJUDWLRQ UHSUHVHQWHG´LQ6HFWKHH[SODQDWLRQE\DVVLPLODWLRQLVWVWKDWJLYLQJ ³LPPLJUDQWJURXSV VSHFLDOSULYLOHJHV FDQKDUPWKHYHU\ JURXSVWKH\DUH LQWHQGHG WR KHOS´ EHFDXVH ³E\ FDOOLQJ DWWHQWLRQ WR GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
WKHVH JURXSV DQG WKH PDMRULW\ WKH JRYHUQPHQW PD\ IRVWHU UHVHQWPHQW WRZDUGVWKHPE\WKH PDMRULW\DQGLQWXUQFDXVHWKHLPPLJUDQWJURXSWR WXUQ LQZDUG DQG VKXQ PDLQVWUHDP FXOWXUH´ LQ 6HF WKH H[SODQDWLRQ E\WKRVHLQ*HUPDQLFDUWWKDWLWVDUWZRUNVZHUHEHDXWLIXORQWKHEDVLVRI WKHVW\OHVOLNH0LJUDWLRQDUW,QVXODUDUWHWFLQ6HFWKHH[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKH DGYRFDWHV RI EUDLQ JDLQ WKDW EUDLQ GUDLQ IURP KRPH FRXQWULHV LV JRRGIRUKRVWFRXQWULHVEHFDXVHRILWVHFRQRPLFEHQHILWVIRULQVWDQFHLQ 6HF WKH H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKDW ³DZDUHQHVV RI WKH LQFRPH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ QHLJKERUV RU RWKHU KRXVHKROGV LQ WKH PLJUDQWVHQGLQJ FRPPXQLW\ LV DQ LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU LQ PLJUDWLRQ´LQ6HFWKHH[SODQDWLRQE\1RUPDQ0\HUVWKDWKLVFODLPV DERXW PLJUDWLRQ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH LV EDVHG RQ ³RYHU VRXUFHV´ LQ 6HF WKH H[SODQDWLRQ RI ELRGLYHUVLW\ RQ WKH EDVLV RI GLVWDQFH GHSHQGHQFH E\ WKH GHIHQGHUV RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV LQ 6HF WKH H[SODQDWLRQ E\ RSSRUWXQLVW H[WUHPLVWV WKDW WKH GLDVSRUD FRPPXQLW\ FDQQRW EH WUXVWHG EHFDXVH RI ³FRQIOLFWLQJ OR\DOWLHV´ LQ 6HF WKH H[SODQDWLRQ RI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ E\ WKH DGYRFDWHV WKDW LW LV LPSRUWDQW IRU KXPDQ VXUYLYDO DV 6WHSKHQ +DZNLQJ RQFH VDLG WKDW ³WKH ORQJWHUPVXUYLYDORIWKHKXPDQUDFHLVDWULVNDVORQJDVLWLVFRQILQHGWRD VLQJOH SODQHW´ LQ 6HF WKH H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKH GHIHQGHUV RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP WKDW LW LV GHVLUDEOH EHFDXVH LW LV ³D IDLUHU V\VWHP WKDW DOORZVSHRSOHWRWUXO\H[SUHVVZKRWKH\DUHZLWKLQDVRFLHW\WKDWLVPRUH WROHUDQW DQG WKDW DGDSWV EHWWHU WR VRFLDO LVVXHV´ LQ 6HF DQG WKH H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKRVH PLJUDQWV IURP UHOLJLRXV SHUVHFXWLRQ RQ WKH EDVLV RI VHHNLQJUHOLJLRXVIUHHGRPLQ6HF 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHUHLVLQH[SOLFDELOLW\HJWKHODFNRIVXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQ H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKRVH LQ ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ DQG ³WKH PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´ LQ UHJDUG WR ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´ DV DOWHUQDWLYHO\ SURSRVHG E\ 3XUFHOO LQ 6HF WKH ODFN RI VXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFV RI ZK\ WKH IRXU HYROXWLRQDU\ SURFHVVHV DUH QHFHVVDULO\ FRPSOHWH VLQFH WKHUH DUH RWKHUV ZKR SURSRVH VRPHWKLQJHOVHOLNH ³DGDSWDWLRQ´³WKHGLYLQHGHVLJQ´HWFLQ6HF WKHODFNRIVXIILFLHQWH[SODQDWLRQE\WKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVRIKRZH[DFWO\ ³ FP VL]HG SDUWLFOHV FRDOHVFH LQWR NP SODQHWHVLPDOV´ ZKLFK IRU WKH FULWLFV³LVDP\VWHU\´VLQFH³WKLVPHFKDQLVPDSSHDUVWREHWKHNH\WRWKH TXHVWLRQ DV WR ZK\ VRPH VWDUV KDYH SODQHWV ZKLOH RWKHUV KDYH QRWKLQJ DURXQG WKHP HYHQ GXVW EHOWV´ LQ 6HF WKH ODFN RI VXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQ RI ZK\ HQGRJHQRXV IDFWRUV DUH VXIILFLHQW WR H[SODLQ ³WKH DELOLW\RIELUGVWRQDYLJDWHGXULQJPLJUDWLRQV´VLQFHDVWKHFULWLFVSRLQWHG RXWLW³FDQQRWEHIXOO\H[SODLQHGE\HQGRJHQRXVSURJUDPPLQJHYHQZLWK WKH KHOS RI UHVSRQVHV WR HQYLURQPHQWDO FXHV´ LQ 6HF WKH ODFN RI
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
VXIILFLHQWH[SODQDWLRQE\WKRVHLQWKHUHVHDUFKRQ³SXVKIDFWRUV´EHFDXVH WKH\ DOUHDG\ DVVXPH WKDW WKH DXWKRULWLHV LQ TXHVWLRQ ZHOFRPH RU DOORZ WKRVHZKRZDQWWRHPLJUDWHEXWWKLVLVQRWQHFHVVDULO\WUXHLQ6HF WKHODFNRIVXIILFLHQWH[SODQDWLRQE\WKRVHDJDLQVWFKHDSIRUHLJQODERUOLNH 6DPXHO *RPSHUV RI ZK\ WKH DFW ZDV QHFHVVDULO\ GHVLUDEOH IRU PDQ\ -HZLVK LPPLJUDQWV DW WKH WLPH EHFDXVH ³WKH $FW ZRXOG VKDUSO\ UHGXFH -HZLVK LPPLJUDWLRQ´ LQ 6HF WKH ODFN RI VXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQ E\ DVVLPLODWLRQLVWV RI ZK\ WKH UHIXVDO WR JLYH ³LPPLJUDQW JURXSV VSHFLDO SULYLOHJHV ´ LV QHFHVVDULO\ GHVLUDEOH EHFDXVH IRU WKH PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVWV ³DVVLPLODWLRQFDQKXUWPLQRULW\FXOWXUHVE\VWULSSLQJDZD\WKHLUGLVWLQFWLYH IHDWXUHV«0XOWLFXOWXUDOLVWV QRWH WKDW DVVLPLODWLRQ LQ SUDFWLFH KDV RIWHQ EHHQIRUFHGDQGKDVFDXVHGLPPLJUDQWVWR KDYH VHYHUHGWLHV ZLWK IDPLO\ DEURDG´ LQ 6HF WKH ODFN RI VXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKRVH LQ *HUPDQLFDUWRIZK\LWVDUWZRUNVZHUHQHFHVVVDULO\EHDXWLIXOVLQFHODWHU RQ ZKHQ ³WKH FRQYHUVLRQ RI *HUPDQLF SHRSOHV E\ WKH HQG RI WKH WK FHQWXULHV LQ ZHVWHUQ (XURSH QHDUHG FRPSOHWLRQ WKH FKXUFK EHFDPH WKH SULPHSDWURQIRUDUW´DQG³WKHUHFRUGVKRZVDVWHDG\GHFOLQHLQ*HUPDQLF IRUPVDQGLQFUHDVLQJ0HGLWHUUDQHDQLQIOXHQFH´LQ6HFWKHODFNRI VXIILFLHQWH[SODQDWLRQE\WKHDGYRFDWHVRIEUDLQJDLQRIZK\EUDLQGUDLQ IURP KRPH FRXQWULHV LV QHFHVVDULO\ JRRG IRU KRVW FRXQWULHV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH FULWLFLVP E\ 'DYLG &DPHURQ WKDW EUDLQ JDLQ FDQ DOVR FDXVH VHULRXV SUREOHPV LQ KRVW FRXQWULHV OLNH WKH IDLOXUH RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP LQ 6HF WKHODFNRIVXIILFLHQWH[SODQDWLRQE\WKRVH LQWKHVWXG\RIUHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ RI ZK\ WKLV WKHRU\ QHFHVVDULO\ H[SODLQV PXFK RI DQ\WKLQJ VLQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV LW ³IDLOV WR H[SODLQ ZK\ VRPH SHRSOH ZKR IHHO GLVFRQWHQW IDLO WR WDNH DFWLRQ«&RXQWHUDUJXPHQWV LQFOXGH WKDW VRPH SHRSOH DUH SURQH WR FRQIOLFWDYRLGDQFH VKRUWWHUPRULHQWHG´ DQG VR RQ ³VLQFH WKHUH LV QR JXDUDQWHH WKDW OLIHLPSURYHPHQW ZLOO UHVXOW IURP«DFWLRQ´LQ6HFWKHODFNRIVXIILFLHQWH[SODQDWLRQE\1RUPDQ 0\HUV RI ZK\ KLV FODLPV DERXW PLJUDWLRQ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH EDVHG RQ ³RYHUVRXUFHV´DUHQHFHVVDULO\SHUVXDVLYHVLQFHIRUWKHFULWLFV³RQ YLVLWLQJ KLV ELEOLRJUDSK\ LW EHFRPHV DSSDUHQW WKDW RI WKHVH VRXUFHV WKH YDVWPDMRULW\FRQVWLWXWHQRWKLQJPRUHWKDQDUDWKHUGHVXOWRU\RYHUYLHZRI HQYLURQPHQWDOVFLHQFHWKDWKDVQRREYLRXVFRQQHFWLRQZLWKGLVFXVVLRQVRI VRFLHWDOLPSDFWVRUPLJUDWLRQ´DQG³RQO\RIWKHVHVRXUFHVGLVFXVVWKH PLJUDWLRQHQYLURQPHQW OLQNDJH H[SOLFLWO\ DQG LW LV ZRUWK QRWLQJ WKDW WKLV QXPEHU LV OLWWOH GLIIHUHQW WKDQ DQ\ RWKHU SDSHU RQ µ(QYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ¶ DQG FRQVLVWV FKLHIO\ RI LVRODWHG FDVH VWXG\ PDWHULDO´ LQ 6HF WKH ODFN RI VXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQ E\ WKH GHIHQGHUV RI WKH -DQ]HQ± &RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV RI ZK\ ELRGLYHUVLW\ LV QHFHVVDULO\ H[SODLQHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH VLQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV ³D QXPEHU RI
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
PHFKDQLVPVXQGHUVFRUHWKHFRH[LVWHQFHRIVLPLODUVSHFLHVDQGWKXVFDXVH ELRGLYHUVLW\LQHFRV\VWHPV´DQG³WKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLV>IRUVHHG GLVSHUVDO@ LV DSSOLFDEOH RQO\ IRU VRPH VSHFLHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ VSHFLHV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV´ LQ 6HF WKH ODFN RI VXIILFLHQW H[SODQDWLRQ E\ RSSRUWXQLVWH[WUHPLVWVRI ZK\WKHGLDVSRUDFRPPXQLW\FDQQRWEHWUXVWHG VLQFH WKHUH FDQ EH ³GXDO OR\DOW\´ RU HYHQ PXOWLSOH OR\DOWLHV LQ WKH DJH RI ³WUDQVQDWLRQDOLVP´LQ6HFWKHODFNRIVXIILFLHQWH[SODQDWLRQE\WKH DGYRFDWHV RI ZK\ VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ LV QHFHVVDULO\ LPSRUWDQW IRU KXPDQ VXUYLYDO VLQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV OLNH ³PDQ\ VFLHQFH ILFWLRQ ZULWHUV«WKH UHDOP RI WKH LQQHUVSDFH WKDW LV WKH FRPSXWHU DLGHG H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH KXPDQ PLQG DQG KXPDQ FRQVFLRXVQHVV´ FDQ EH ³DQ DOWHUQDWLYH WR JDLQ PDQ\ RI WKH VDPH VFLHQWLILF DGYDQWDJHV ZLWKRXW WKH OLPLWHG PLVVLRQ GXUDWLRQDQGKLJKFRVWRIOLIHVXSSRUWDQGUHWXUQWUDQVSRUWDWLRQLQYROYHGLQ PDQQHGPLVVLRQV´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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WK7KHVLV7KH)LFWLRQ5HDOLW\3ULQFLSOH
7KHVL[WKWKHVLVLVFDOOHGWKHILFWLRQUHDOLW\SULQFLSOHRQWKHGLIIHUHQW IDFHV RI UHDOLW\ LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³PHWKRG´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV DV ILUVWSURSRVHGLQ)3+/,7 LQWKDWERWKILFWLRQDQGUHDOLW\FRH[LVW7KHUH LVQRUHDOLW\ZLWKRXWILFWLRQ²DQGYLFHYHUVD 7KLV SULQFLSOH WHOOV XV WKH GLIIHUHQW FDWHJRULHV RI UHDOLW\ LQ WKDW LI WKHUHLVUHDOLW\WKHUHLVDOVRVRPHILFWLRQLQLW²MXVWDVLIWKHUHLVILFWLRQ WKHUHLVDOVRVRPHUHDOLW\LQLW )RULQVWDQFHRQWKHRQHKDQGWKHUHLVILFWLRQHJWKHILFWLRQDODVSHFW RI³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´LQVRIDUDVLWLJQRUHVWKHUROHRI³H[RF\WRVLV´ LQWKH³H[WHQVLRQRIWKHOHDGLQJHGJH´LQ6HFWKHILFWLRQDODVSHFWRI WKHLGHDRIYDULDWLRQLQVRIDUDVLWZDVXQGHUVWRRGE\ZD\RI³WKHLGHDRI EOHQGLQJ LQKHULWDQFH GXULQJ WKH WK FHQWXU\ SULRU WR WKH GLVFRYHU\ RI JHQHWLFV« LQ ZKLFK LW ZDV WKRXJKW LQKHULWHG WUDLWV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG UDQGRPO\ IURP D UDQJH ERXQGHG E\ WKH KRPRORJRXV WUDLWV IRXQG LQ WKH SDUHQWV´ ZKLFK LV QRZ UHMHFWHG LQ PRGHUQ SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFV LQ 6HF WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV LQVRIDU DV LW IDOVHO\ DVVXPHV WKDW SODQHWHVLPDOV ZHUH IRUPHG E\ GXVW SDUWLFOHV VLPSO\ ³VWLFNLQJ´ DOWRJHWKHU VLQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV ³VLPSOH VWLFNLQJ EHFRPHV LQHIIHFWLYHDVGXVWSDUWLFOHVJURZODUJHU´LQ6HFWKHILFWLRQDODVSHFW RIWKHVWXG\RIELUGPLJUDWLRQLQVRIDUDVSHRSOHLQDQWLTXLW\OLNH$ULVWRWOH ³VXJJHVWHGWKDWVZDOORZVDQGRWKHUELUGVKLEHUQDWHG´ZKLFKWXUQHGRXWWR EH IDOVH LQ 6HF WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI ³DWURFLWLHV´ E\ 6RYLHW VROGLHUV DJDLQVW HWKQLF *HUPDQV DW WKH HQG RI ::,, ³OLNH WKH GLVSXWHG 1HPPHUVGRUI PDVVDFUH´ ZKLFK ³ZHUH DOVR LQ SDUW H[DJJHUDWHG DQG VSUHDGE\WKH1D]LSURSDJDQGDPDFKLQH´LQ6HFWKHILFWLRQDODVSHFW RI WKH DUJXPHQWV E\ WKH SURSRQHQWV RI WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI LQVRIDUDVWKH\ZHUHOLQNHGWRWKHUDFLVWYLHZRI0DGLVRQ*UDQWZKRZDV ³DQ DGYRFDWH RI WKH UDFLDO K\JLHQH WKHRU\´ DQG ³SXUSRUWHG WR VKRZ WKH VXSHULRULW\ RI WKH IRXQGLQJ 1RUWKHUQ (XURSHDQ UDFHV´ LQ 6HF WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH VWXG\ RI WKH ³PHDVXUDEOH DVSHFWV RI DVVLPLODWLRQ´ LQVRIDUDVLWIDOVHO\DVVXPHGWKDW³WKHFKDQJLQJRILPPLJUDQWQDPHVLVQRW RQHRIWKH«PHDVXUDEOHEHQFKPDUNVIRUDVVLPLODWLRQ´EHFDXVH³LWLVRIWHQ EHOLHYHG WKDW GXH WR ODQJXDJH EDUULHUV RU WKH ODFN RI WUDLQLQJ DQG VHQVLWLYLW\ E\ JRYHUQPHQW RIILFLDOV QDPHV ZHUH RIWHQ FKDQJHG ZLWKRXW FRQVHQWE\LQVSHFWRUVRQ(OOLV,VODQG´EXWWKLVDVVXPSWLRQWXUQVRXWWREH IDOVH LQ 6HF WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH DQLPDO VW\OH LQVRIDU DV ³DQLPDOV DUH ZKROH EHDVWV EXW WKHLU ERGLHV DUH HORQJDWHG LQWR ULEERQV ZKLFKLQWHUWZLQHGLQWRV\PPHWULFDOVKDSHVZLWKQRSUHWHQFHRIQDWXUDOLVP DQGUDUHO\DQ\OHJV´LQ6HFWKHILFWLRQDODVSHFWRIWKHGLVFRXUVHRQ
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
EUDLQ JDLQ LQVRIDU DV LW H[DJJHUDWHV WKH EHQHILWV E\ QRW VHULRXVO\ FRQVLGHULQJWKHQHJDWLYHFRQVHTXHQFHVOLNHWKHIDLOXUHRIPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP DQG WKH SUREOHP RI EUDLQ ZDVWH LQ 6HF WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LQVRIDU DV ³DQ\ DEVROXWH SRYHUW\ WKUHVKROGLVWRVRPHH[WHQWDUELWUDU\´LQ6HFWKHILFWLRQDODVSHFWRI WKHVWXG\RIHQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQLQVRIDUDV PDQ\RILWVILQGLQJVDUH LQFRQVLVWHQWDQGXQVRXQGDV GHVFULEHGHDUOLHULQ6HFWKHILFWLRQDO DVSHFWRIWKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVLQVRIDUDVWKHFULWLFVOLNH/DXUHQ +\DWW DQG RWKHUV ³H[DPLQHG WKH K\SRWKHVLV DFURVV D QXPEHU RI WUHH VSHFLHV«UDWKHU WKDQ IRFXVLQJ RQ WKH HIIHFWV RQ MXVW RQH«DQG IRXQG QR VXSSRUWIRUWKHGLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFHRIWKHK\SRWKHVLV´LQ6HFWKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI ³D JRYHUQPHQWFRQYHQWHG SDQHO H[DPLQLQJ 86 FRXQWHUWHUURULVPSROLF\´LQZKHQLWUHPRYHG ³DSURPLQHQW $UDE $PHULFDQ´ IURP WKH SDQHO ³EHFDXVH RI«SUHMXGLFLDOO\ URRWHG«FRQFHUQV DERXW KLV DWWLWXGH WRZDUGV $UDE WHUURULVP DJDLQVW ,VUDHOL DQG $PHULFDQ WDUJHWV´ LQ 6HF WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI WKH DUJXPHQW IRU VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ LQVRIDU DV LW ³DVVXPHV WKDW VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ LV«ZLGHO\ DFNQRZOHGJHGDVDVXIILFLHQWO\YDOXDEOHVRFLDO JRDO´EXWWKLVLV QRWWUXH EHFDXVH RI ³WKH IUHH ULGHU SUREOHP´ LQ 6HF WKH ILFWLRQDO DVSHFW RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPLQVRIDUDVWKHVORJDQRI³VDODGERZO´LVPRUHUKHWRULFDO WKDQUHDOVLQFHIRUWKHFULWLFVOLNH³3ULPH0LQLVWHUDQG&RQVHUYDWLYH3DUW\ OHDGHU'DYLG&DPHURQVDLGLQD>@VSHHFKWKDW VWDWHPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP KDVIDLOHG ´LQ6HFDQGWKHILFWLRQDODVSHFWRIWKHSHUVHFXWLRQE\WKH (QJOLVKJRYHUQPHQWVDJDLQVW5RPDQ&DWKROLFVLQWKHWKFHQWXU\LQVRIDU DVLWZDVEDVHGRQWKHVXEMHFWLYHRUSDUDQRLG³IHDU´RID³3RSLVK3ORW´LQ 6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV UHDOLW\ HJ WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ LQVRIDU DV LW FRQVLGHUV WKH UROH RI ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´LQWKH³H[WHQVLRQRIWKHOHDGLQJHGJH´LQ6HFWKH UHDOLVWLFDVSHFWRIWKHLGHDRIYDULDWLRQLQVRIDUDVLWZDVODWHUXQGHUVWRRG LQVWHDGRQWKHEDVLVRI ³WKH +DUG\:HLQEHUJSULQFLSOH´ ZKLFK ³SURYLGHV WKHVROXWLRQWRKRZYDULDWLRQLVPDLQWDLQHGLQDSRSXODWLRQZLWK0HQGHOLDQ LQKHULWDQFH´ DQG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKLV SULQFLSOH ³WKH IUHTXHQFLHV RI DOOHOHV >YDULDWLRQV LQ D JHQH@ ZLOO UHPDLQ FRQVWDQW LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI VHOHFWLRQ PXWDWLRQPLJUDWLRQDQGJHQHWLFGULIW´LQ6HFWKHUHDOLVWLFDVSHFWRI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV LQVRIDU DV LW ULJKWO\ DVVXPHV WKDW SODQHWHVLPDOV ZHUH IRUPHG E\ GXVW SDUWLFOHV VLPSO\ ³VWLFNLQJ´ DOWRJHWKHU´ LI GXVW SDUWLFOHV GR QRW JURZ WRR PXFK LQ 6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI WKH VWXG\RIELUGPLJUDWLRQLQVRIDUDVLWFRQWULEXWHVWRDEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJ RIPLJUDWLRQIRUVRPHELUGVDVVKRZQLQWKHH[DPSOHWKDW³LWZDVQRWXQWLO HDUO\ LQ WKH QLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\ WKDW PLJUDWLRQ DV DQ H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
ZLQWHUGLVDSSHDUDQFHRIELUGVIURPQRUWKHUQFOLPHVZDVDFFHSWHG´LQ6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI ³DWURFLWLHV´ E\ 6RYLHW VROGLHUV DJDLQVW HWKQLF *HUPDQVDWWKHHQGRI::,,´LQVRIDUDVVRPHRIWKHPGLGKDSSHQDVSDUW RI ³WKH 6RYLHW UHSULVDOV RQ *HUPDQ FLYLOLDQV´ LQ 6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFWRIWKHDUJXPHQWVE\WKHSURSRQHQWVRIWKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRI LQVRIDUDVWKH\WULHGWRSURWHFWGRPHVWLFODERUDJDLQVWFKHDSIRUHLJQODERU IURP LPPLJUDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI WKH VWXG\ RI WKH ³PHDVXUDEOHDVSHFWVRIDVVLPLODWLRQ´LQVRIDUDVLWFRUUHFWO\LGHQWLILHVWKH IRXU H[DPSOHV DIRUHGLVFXVVHG LQ 6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI WKH DQLPDO VW\OH LQVRIDU DV WKH DUW ZRUNV ZHUH WR SRUWUD\ WKH H[LVWHQFH RI GLIIHUHQWDQLPDOVOLNH³ELUGV´³EHDUV´DOEHLWLQDEVWUDFWLRQLQ6HF WKHUHDOLVWLFDVSHFWRIWKHGLVFRXUVHRQEUDLQJDLQLQVRIDUDVLWLGHQWLILHVLWV HFRQRPLF EHQHILWV WR KRVW FRXQWULHV LQ 6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LQVRIDU DV LW KDV ³WKH DGYDQWDJH RI DSSO\LQJ WKH VDPH VWDQGDUG DFURVV GLIIHUHQW ORFDWLRQV DQG WLPH SHULRGV PDNLQJ FRPSDULVRQV HDVLHU´ LQ 6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ LQVRIDU DV LW VKRZV XV GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFWRIWKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVLQVRIDUDVWKHVWXG\E\+\DWWDQG RWKHUV IRXQG WKDW ³LQ WURSLFDO VHWWLQJV WKHUH ZDV D VOLJKW SRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHLPSURYHGFRPSHWLWLYHDELOLW\RIVHHGVDQGGLVWDQFH IURP SDUHQW´ LQ 6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI ³D JRYHUQPHQW FRQYHQWHGSDQHOH[DPLQLQJ86FRXQWHUWHUURULVPSROLF\´LQZKHQ LW H[DPLQHG WKH ³GXDO OR\DOW\´ RI ³D SURPLQHQW $UDE$PHULFDQ´ LQ WKH SDQHODOWKRXJKLWVVXEVHTXHQWFRQFOXVLRQRUGHFLVLRQWRUHPRYHKLPLVQRW EDVHGRQIDFWVLQ6HFWKHUHDOLVWLFDVSHFWRIWKHDUJXPHQWIRUVSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ LQVRIDU DV LW ZDUQV XV WKH SUREOHP RI ³KXPDQ VXUYLYDO´ RQ (DUWK LQ 6HF WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP LQVRIDU DV LW PDNHV XV DZDUH RI LQVWLWXWLRQDO UDFLVP DJDLQVW PLQRULW\ JURXSV LQ 6HF DQG WKH UHDOLVWLF DVSHFW RI WKH SHUVHFXWLRQ E\ WKH (QJOLVK JRYHUQPHQWVDJDLQVW5RPDQ&DWKROLFVLQWKHWKFHQWXU\LQVRIDUDVLWZDV UHODWHG WR WKH DFW RI ³3RSH 3LXV 9 >ZKR@ KDG LVVXHG WKH EXOO 5HJQDQV LQ ([FHOVLV ZKLFK DEVROYHG &DWKROLFV IURP WKHLU REOLJDWLRQV WR WKH JRYHUQPHQW´LQDOWKRXJKWKHUHDFWLRQZDVRXWRISURSRUWLRQLQ6HF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH 2QFH PRUH LW VKRXOG EH VWUHVVHG KRZHYHU WKDW WKHUH DUH GLIIHUHQW VKDGHVRIJUD\RUGLIIHUHQWGHJUHHVRIWUXWK LQWKHWZRRSSRVLWHVDQGWKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH HLWKHU ,Q IDFW HYHQ ZKHQVRPHFRPELQDWLRQVRIWKHWZRRFFXUWKH\RQO\HQG XSVKDULQJWKH VDPHGLDOHFWLFUHODWLRQVKLSEXWLQDGLIIHUHQWGHJUHH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
$OVR WKHUH DUH VRPH RWKHU UHODWLRQVKLSV DV D NLQG RI IDPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH ZKLFK KDYH VRPHWKLQJ LQ FRPPRQ ZLWK WKH SULQFLSOH EXW WKH\ DUH QRW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EXW RQO\ PRUH RU OHVV FRPSDUDEOH ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH *RRGH[DPSOHVRIIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHSULQFLSOHDUH ILFWLRQQRQILFWLRQ ILFWLRQIDFW LPDJLQDWLRQIDFW LPDJLQDWLRQQRQILFWLRQ VXEMHFWLYLW\REMHFWLYLW\DQGVRIRUWK
WK7KHVLV7KH)LQLWHQHVV7UDQVILQLWHQHVV 3ULQFLSOH 7KHVHYHQWKWKHVLVLVFDOOHGWKHILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVVSULQFLSOHRQ WKH QDWXUH RI QXPEHUV LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³VWUXFWXUH´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV DV ILUVW SURSRVHG LQ )3+* LQ WKDW LI WKHUH DUH ILQLWH WKLQJV WKHUHDUHOLNHZLVHWUDQVILQLWHRQHV²DQGYLFHYHUVD 7R DYRLG FRQIXVLRQ P\ XVDJH RI WKH ZRUG ³WUDQVILQLWH´ KHUH GLIIHUV UDGLFDOO\ IURP WKH RQH XVHG E\ &DQWRU DQG RWKHU PDWKHPDWLFLDQV IRU ³UHODWLYH´ LQILQLW\²DQG LV PRUH OLPLWHG LQ OLJKW RI WKH SUREOHPV FRQIURQWLQJ DQ\ DWWHPSW WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH LGHD RI LQILQLW\ EH LW E\ LQWXLWLRQLPDJLQDWLRQDQGFRQFHSWLRQDVGHWDLOHGO\DQDO\]HGLQ6HF RI)3+* ,QVWHDG E\ ³WUDQVILQLW\´ , DOORZ QXPEHUV ZKLFK FDQ EH PDQ\ WLPHV ODUJHU²RU VPDOOHU IRU WKDW PDWWHU²WKDQ WKH ILQLWH WKLQJV WKDW ZH HQFRXQWHU LQ GDLO\ OLIH EXW WKH\ GR QRW KDYH WR EH UHODWHG WR WKH LGHD RI LQILQLW\DWDOOZKLFKPD\QRWH[LVW 2IFRXUVHWKHUHPD\EHVRPHERUGHUOLQHFDVHVLQZKLFKLWLVQRWFOHDU ZKHWKHU WKH QXPEHU LQ TXHVWLRQ LV WUDQVILQLWH LQ P\ XVDJH RU VLPSO\ D PDWKHPDWLFDO FRQYHQLHQFH $ JRRG H[DPSOH RI D ERUGHUOLQH FDVH LV WKH 3ODQFNXQLWRIOHQJWKIRU³WKHVPDOOHVWVSDFHSRVVLEO\PHDVXUHGLQQDWXUH´ ZKLFK LV ³OHVV WKDQ ELOOLRQWKV RI WULOOLRQWKV RI WULOOLRQWKV RI DQ LQFK´ RU VRPHWKLQJ OLNH î í PHWHUV 3 %DRIX D 1 0F$OHHU :.9'&RUEHWWD 7KDW VDLG²P\ XVDJH RI ³WUDQVILQLW\´ FDQ DOVR UHVROYH RU EHWWHU GLVVROYH DQDJHROGSUREOHPLQSKLORVRSK\NQRZQDV³=HQR VSDUDGR[HV´ DVDOUHDG\H[SODLQHGLQ6HFRI)3+* ,QDQ\HYHQWLQUHODWLRQWRWKHILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVVSULQFLSOHRQ WKHRWKHU KDQGWKHUHLV ILQLWHQHVVHJWKHILQLWH QXPEHU RI PHFKDQLVPV ZKLFK OHDG WR ³H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH OHDGLQJ HGJH´ LQ D FHOO OLNH ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ DQG ³H[RF\WRVLV´ LQ 6HF WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH FDWHJRULHV RI DOOHOHV QDPHO\ ³GRPLQDQW´ YV ³UHFHVVLYH´ DOOHOHV LQ 6HF
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WKHILQLWHQXPEHURIWKHFDWHJRULHVRIPDLQHQWLWLHVLQWKHIRUPDWLRQ RIDVRODUV\VWHPOLNHSDUWLFOHVFORXGVPHWHRULWHVDVWHURLGVFRPHWVDQG SODQHWVLQ6HFWKHILQLWHQXPEHURIWKHHQGRJHQRXVDQGH[RJHQRXV IDFWRUV IRU WKH H[SODQDWLRQ RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH FDWHJRULV RI UHDVRQV EHKLQG WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV OLNH ³RSSRVLWLRQ ³EUDLQ GUDLQ´ DQG ³VHFUHF\´ LQ 6HF WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH FDWHJRULHV RI ³RULJLQV IURP WKH $VLD±3DFLILF 7ULDQJOH´ OLNH ³&KLQHVH´ ³-DSDQHVH´ ³,QGLDQV´ HWF ZKRP WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRIZDVWREDQLQ6HFWKHILQLWHQXPEHURIWKH WKHRUHWLFDO PRGHOV WR LPPLJUDQW DVVLPLODWLRQ OLNH ³FRQYHUJHQFH´ ³EDUULHUV´ DQG ³IUDJPHQWDWLRQ´ LQ 6HF WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH FDWHJRULHV RI DQLPDOV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH DQLPDO VW\OH RI *HUPDQLF DUW OLNH ³ELUGV´ ³EHDUV´ HWF LQ 6HF WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH WZR UHDVRQV EHKLQG EUDLQ JDLQ OLNH WKH ³WZR DVSHFWV ZKLFK UHVSHFWLYHO\ FRPH IURP FRXQWULHVDQGLQGLYLGXDOV´LQWKHDUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGLQ6HFWKHILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH FDWHJRULHV RI GHSULYDWLRQ OLNH ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ DQG ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LQ 6HF WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH W\SHV RI ³HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWV´ OLNH WKH WKUHH W\SHV GHILQHG E\ ,20 LQ 6HF WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH W\SHV RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO QDPHO\ ³DXWRFKRU\´ DQG ³DOORFKRU\´ VHHG GLVSHUVDOV LQ 6HF WKH ILQLWH QXPEHURIWKHFDWHJRULHVRIWKHSROLWLFDOVSKHUHVRIGLDVSRUDSROLWLFVOLNH ³KRPHODQG´³KRVWVWDWH´DQG³LQWHUQDWLRQDOOHYHO´LQ6HFWKHILQLWH QXPEHURIWKHFDWHJRULHVRIWKHORFDWLRQVRIVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQVZLWKLQRXU 6RODU 6\VWHP LQ 6HF WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI FRXQWULHV ZKLFK KDYH HPEUDFHGPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPDIRUHFLWHGOLNH,QGLD,QGRQHVLDWKH86HWF LQ 6HF DQG WKH ILQLWH QXPEHU RI WKH GLIIHUHQW UHDVRQV IRU UHOLJLRXV SHUVHFXWLRQOLNH³GLVVHQW´³KHUHV\´DQG³WUHDVRQ´LQ6HF 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHUHLVWUDQVILQLWW\HJWKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURI DOO WKH FHOOV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKLFK KDG PRYHG LQ DFFRUGDQFH WR ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´DQG³H[RF\WRVLV´LQ6HFWKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURI DOOWKHLQGLYLGXDORUJDQLVPV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKLFK KDYHHYHUH[LVWHGDQGKDYH GRPLQDQWDQGRUUHFHVVLYHDOOHOHVLQ6HFWKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURI DOOWKHLQGLYLGXDOSLHFHVRISDUWLFOHVFORXGVDVWHURLGVPHWHRULWHVFRPHWV DQGVRRQLQWKHKLVWRU\RIWKHXQLYHUVH ZKLFK KDYHHYHUH[LVWHGLQ6HF WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDO ELUGV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKLFK KDYH HYHU PLJUDWHG GXH WR WKH HQGRJHQRXV DQG H[RJHQRXV IDFWRUV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDOV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKR KDYH QHYHU EHHQ DOORZHG WR IUHHO\ WUDYHO EHFDXVHRIHPLJUDWLRQUHVWULFWLRQVLQDXWKRULWDULDQUHJLPHVOLNHWKH(DVWHUQ %ORFDQGRWKHUUHJLRQVDIRUHFLWHGLQ6HFWKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDOV LQ ³WKH $VLD±3DFLILF 7ULDQJOH´ LQ KLVWRU\ ZKR FDQ EH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
FODVVLILHG LQ WKH FDWHJRULHV XQGHU WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI LQ 6HF WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDO LPPLJUDQWV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKRFDQILWLQXQGHUDQ\RIWKHWKUHHWKHRUHWLFDOPRGHOVLQ6HFWKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDO DQLPDOV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKLFK FDQ EH FODVVLILHG LQ WHUPV RI WKH FDWHJRULHV RI DQLPDOV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH DQLPDO VW\OH RI *HUPDQLF DUW OLNH ³ELUGV´ ³EHDUV´ HWF LQ 6HF WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDOV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKR KDYH IOHG WKHLU KRPHFRXQWULHVDQGLPPLJUDWHGWRKRVWFRXQWULHVRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH³WZR DVSHFWV ZKLFK UHVSHFWLYHO\ FRPH IURP FRXQWULHV DQG LQGLYLGXDOV´ LQ WKH DUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGLQ6HFWKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURIDOOWKHLQGLYLGXDOV LQKLVWRU\ZKRKDYHHYHUEHHQGHSULYHGHLWKHUDEVROXWHO\RUUHODWLYHO\LQ 6HFWKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURIDOOWKHLQGLYLGXDOPLJUDQWVLQKLVWRU\ ZKR KDYH EHHQ DIIHFWHG E\ DQ\ RI WKH WKUHH W\SHV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQGHILQHGE\,20LQ6HFWKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURIDOOWKH LQGLYLGXDO VHHGV LQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI QDWXUH RQ HDUWK ZKLFK KDYH HYHU EHHQ GLVSHUVHG WKURXJK WKH PHFKDQLVPV RI ³DXWRFKRU\´ DQG ³DOORFKRU\´ GLVSHUVDOV LQ 6HF WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDO PHPEHUV RI GLDVSRUD FRPPXQLWLHV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKR KDYH SDUWLFLSWHG LQ WKH WKUHH SROLWLFDO VSKHUHV LQ 6HF WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDOSDUWLFOHVLQWKHORFDWLRQVRIVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQVZLWKLQRXU6RODU 6\VWHP LQ 6HF WKH WUDQVILQLWH QXPEHU RI DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDOV LQ KLVWRU\ ZKR KDYH OLYHGLQD PXOWLFXOWXUDOHQYLURQPHQWLQ6HFDQG WKHWUDQVILQLWHQXPEHURIDOOWKHLQGLYLGXDOVLQKLVWRU\ZKRKDGHYHUEHHQ SHUVHFXWHGIRUDQ\RIWKHWKUHHUHDVRQVDIRUHGHVFULEHGLQ6HF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH 2QFH PRUH LW VKRXOG EH VWUHVVHG KRZHYHU WKDW WKHUH DUH GLIIHUHQW VKDGHVRIJUD\RUGLIIHUHQWGHJUHHVRIWUXWK LQWKHWZRRSSRVLWHVDQGWKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH HLWKHU ,Q IDFW HYHQ ZKHQVRPHFRPELQDWLRQVRIWKHWZRRFFXUWKH\RQO\HQG XSVKDULQJWKH VDPHGLDOHFWLFUHODWLRQVKLSEXWLQDGLIIHUHQWGHJUHH $OVR WKHUH DUH VRPH RWKHU UHODWLRQVKLSV DV D NLQG RI IDPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH ZKLFK KDYH VRPHWKLQJ LQ FRPPRQ ZLWK WKH SULQFLSOH EXW WKH\ DUH QRW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EXW RQO\ PRUH RU OHVV FRPSDUDEOH ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH *RRGH[DPSOHVRIIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHSULQFLSOHDUH ERXQGHGQHVVTXDVLXQERXQGHGQHVV VPDOOQHVVODUJHQHVV PLFURQHVV PDFURQHVVERXQGHGQHVVXQERXQGHGQHVVDQGWKHOLNH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WK7KHVLV7KH3UHFLVHQHVV9DJXHQHVV3ULQFLSOH
7KHHLJKWKWKHVLVLVFDOOHGWKHSUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVVSULQFLSOHRQWKH UHILQHPHQWRIWKLQJV LQWKHFDWHJRU\RI³VWUXFWXUH´LQH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFV ZKLFK ZDV ILUVW RXW ZRUNHG RXW LQ ),$ LQ WKDW ERWK SUHFLVHQHVV DQG YDJXHQHVVDUHLPSRUWDQWQRWWKDWRQHLVEHWWHUWKDQWKHRWKHUEXWWKDWERWK DUH XVHG LQ GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI SUHIHUHQFH LQ DFFRUGDQFH WR WKH FRQWH[WXDO DSSOLFDWLRQ IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYHV RI QDWXUH WKH PLQG FXOWXUH DQGVRFLHW\7KHUHLVQRSUHFLVHQHVVZLWKRXWYDJXHQHVV²DQGYLFHYHUVD )RU LQVWDQFH RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKHUH LV SUHFLVHQHVV HJ WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ DQG ³WKH PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´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³FRUH PHDVXUDEOHDVSHFWVRILPPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQ WKDWZHUHIRUPXODWHGWRVWXG\(XURSHDQLPPLJUDQWVWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV´ LQ6HFWKHSUHFLVHFODVVLILFDWLRQRIDQLPDODUWLQWHUPVRI6W\OHV,,, DQG ,,, %\ 6DOLQ LQ 6HF WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW LQGLYLGXDOUHDVRQVWRLPPLJUDWHOLNH³RYHUVHDVUHODWLYHV´³SUHIHUHQFHIRU H[SORULQJ´ DQG ³DPELWLRQ IRU DQ LPSURYHG FDUHHU´ LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHGLQ6HFWKHSUHFLVHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRI³IRXUSUHFRQGLWLRQVRI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ E\ :DOWHU 5XQFLPDQ LQ 6HF WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQRIWKUHHW\SHVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDQWV´DVSRLQWHGRXWE\ ,20 LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI IRXUW\SHVRI ³DOORFKRU\´VHHGGLVSHUVDOVLQWKHDUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGLQ6HF WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WZR DVSHFWV RI WKH SROLWLFDO VSKHUH RI GLDVSRUDLQUHODWLRQWRKRVWVWDWHVOLNH³OREE\LQJIRUHWKQLFLQWHUHVWV´DQG ³SRWHQWLDO OLDELOLWLHV´ LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VL[ ³K\SRWKHWLFDO VWDUVKLS FRQFHSWV SURSRVHG ERWK E\ VFLHQWLVWVDQGLQKDUGVFLHQFHILFWLRQ´IRUVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLQWKHDUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH SUHFLVH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI ³ PRWKHU WRQJXHV´ LQ ,QGLD LQ LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF DQG WKH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
SUHFLVHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIIRXUKLVWRULFDOH[DPSOHVRIPLJUDWLRQIRUUHOLJLRXV IUHHGRPLQWKHDUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGLQ6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV YDJXHQHVV HJ WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQRI³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´DQG³WKHPHPEUDQHIORZPRGHO´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³FRUH PHDVXUDEOHDVSHFWVRILPPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQWKDW ZHUHIRUPXODWHG WR VWXG\ (XURSHDQ LPPLJUDQWV WR WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV´ VLQFH LW LV QRW FOHDU ZK\ WKHUH PXVW EH RQO\ QRW DQG VR RQ LQ 6HF WKH YDJXHQHVVLQWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQRIDQLPDODUWLQWHUPVRI6W\OHV,,,DQG,,, %\6DOLQVLQFHLWLVQRWFOHDUZK\WKHUHPXVWEHRQO\QRWDQGVR RQ VLQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV ³DIWHU DERXW ORFDOLVHG VW\OHV´ ZHUH GLVFRYHUHG´E\UHVHDUFKHUV³LWLVQRORQJHUYHU\XVHIXOWRWDONRIDJHQHUDO *HUPDQLFVW\OH´OLNHWKHRQHVE\6DOLQLQ6HFWKHYDJXHQHVVLQWKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKHVH LQGLYLGXDO UHDVRQV WR LPPLJUDWH OLNH ³RYHUVHDV UHODWLYHV´ ³SUHIHUHQFH IRU H[SORULQJ´ DQG ³DPELWLRQ IRU DQ LPSURYHG FDUHHU´ LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG VLQFH LW LV QRW FOHDU ZK\ WKHUH PXVW EH WKHVHVSHFLILFWKUHHUHDVRQVQRWDQGPDQ\RWKHUVLQVWHDGLQ6HF WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH ³IRXU SUHFRQGLWLRQV RI UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´E\:DOWHU5XQFLPDQVLQFHLWLVQRWFOHDUZK\WKHUH PXVW EH RQO\ SUHFRQGLWLRQV QRW DQG VR RQ LQ 6HF WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH WKUHH W\SHV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWV´ DV SRLQWHG RXW E\ ,20 LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG VLQFH LW LV QRW FOHDU ZK\WKHUH PXVWEHRQO\QRWDQGVRRQLQ 6HFWKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH IRXU W\SHV RI ³DOORFKRU\´ VHHG
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
GLVSHUVDOVLQWKHDUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGVLQFHLWLVQRWFOHDUZK\WKHUHPXVWEH RQO\QRWDQGVRRQLQ6HFWKHYDJXHQHVVLQWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH WZR DVSHFWV RI WKH SROLWLFDO VSKHUH RI GLDVSRUD LQ UHODWLRQ WR KRVW VWDWHVOLNH³OREE\LQJIRUHWKQLFLQWHUHVWV´DQG³SRWHQWLDOOLDELOLWLHV´LQWKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG VLQFH LW LV QRW FOHDU ZK\ WKHUH PXVW EH RQO\ DVSHFWV QRWDQGVRRQLQ6HFWKHYDJXHQHVVLQWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRI WKHVL[³K\SRWKHWLFDOVWDUVKLSFRQFHSWVSURSRVHGERWKE\VFLHQWLVWVDQGLQ KDUGVFLHQFHILFWLRQ´IRUVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLQWKHDUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGVLQFH LWLVQRWFOHDUZK\WKHUHPXVWEHRQO\QRWDQGVRRQLQ6HF WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI ³ PRWKHU WRQJXHV´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
WK7KHVLV7KH6LPSOHQHVV&RPSOLFDWHGQHVV 3ULQFLSOH 7KH QLQWK WKHVLV UHIHUV WR WKH VLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV SULQFLSOH RQ WKH LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQ DPRQJ WKLQJV LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³VWUXFWXUH´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV ZKLFK ZDV ILUVW RXW ZRUNHG RXW LQ ),$ LQ WKDW ERWKVLPSOHQHVVDQGFRPSOLFDWHGQHVVDUHYLWDOZLWKRXWIDYRULQJRQHRYHU WKHRWKHUDQGHDFKLVXWLOL]HGGHSHQGLQJRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHSHUVSHFWLYHV
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
RI QDWXUH WKH PLQG FXOWXUH DQG VRFLHW\ 7KHUH LV QR VLPSOHQHVV ZLWKRXW FRPSOLFDWHGQHVV²DQGYLFHYHUVD )RULQVWDQFHRQWKHRQHKDQGWKHUHLVVLPSOHQHVVHJWKHUHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI FHOO PRYHPHQW E\ LWV DGYRFDWHV LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH IRXU SURFHVVHV LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLVRIWKHIRUPDWLRQRISODQHWHVLPDOVLQGLVNSK\VLFVLQWKHROGHUGD\V ZKHQ LW ZDV DVVXPHG WKDW SODQHWHVLPDOV ZHUH IRUPHG E\ GXVW SDUWLFOHV VLPSO\³VWLFNLQJ´DOWRJHWKHULQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\VLPSOHDQDO\VLVRI ELUGPLJUDWLRQE\LWVDGYRFDWHVLQWKHDUWLFOHDIRUHFLWHGLQ6HFWKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV E\ WKRVHLQ:HVWHUQPDVVPHGLDLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\VLPSOHDQDO\VLV RI WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI E\ LWV SURSRQHQWV LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI WKH IRXU ³FRUH PHDVXUDEOH DVSHFWV RI LPPLJUDQW DVVLPLODWLRQ WKDW ZHUH IRUPXODWHG WR VWXG\ (XURSHDQ LPPLJUDQWV WR WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV´ E\ WKH SURSRQHQWV LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\VLPSOHDQDO\VLVRI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUWE\LWVDGYRFDWHVLQ6HF WKHUHODWLYHO\VLPSOHDQDO\VLVRIEUDLQJDLQE\WKHDGYRFDWHVLQ6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ E\ WKH DGYRFDWHV LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQE\WKHDGYRFDWHVLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\VLPSOHDQDO\VLVRI VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ WKH DGYRFDWHV LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLVRIGLDVSRUDSROLWLFVE\WKHDGYRFDWHVLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\ VLPSOHDQDO\VLVRI VSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQE\WKHDGYRFDWHVLQ 6HFWKH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP E\ LWV GHIHQGHUV LQ 6HF DQGWKHUHODWLYHO\VLPSOHDQDO\VLVRIPLJUDWLRQIRUUHOLJLRXVIUHHGRP E\WKHDGYRFDWHVLQ6HF 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHUHLVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVVHJWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLV RI FHOO PRYHPHQW E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DIRUHFLWHGLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUHFRPSOLFDWHGDQDO\VLVRIJHQH PLJUDWLRQ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH IRXU SURFHVVHV E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DV FLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLV RI WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI SODQHWHVLPDOV LQ GLVN SK\VLFV QRZDGD\V E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH FULWLFLVP WKDW ³VLPSOH VWLFNLQJ EHFRPHV LQHIIHFWLYH DV GXVW SDUWLFOHV JURZ ODUJHU´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\PRUHFRPSOLFDWHGDQDO\VLVRIELUGPLJUDWLRQE\FKDOOHQJLQJWKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFVDVFLWHGLQ 6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\ PRUHFRPSOLFDWHGDQDO\VLVRI WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV RI :HVWHUQ PDVV PHGLD DV FLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRPSOLFDWHGDQDO\VLVRIWKH,PPLJUDWLRQ $FWRIE\ FKDOOHQJLQJWKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFVDVFLWHGLQ 6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\ PRUHFRPSOLFDWHGDQDO\VLVRI WKH IRXU ³FRUH PHDVXUDEOH DVSHFWV RI LPPLJUDQW DVVLPLODWLRQ WKDW ZHUH IRUPXODWHG WR VWXG\ (XURSHDQ LPPLJUDQWV WR WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV´ E\ FKDOOHQJLQJWKHFODLPVDQGDVVXPSWLRQVDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DV FLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLV RI 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQVDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFVDVFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLV RI EUDLQ JDLQ E\ FKDOOHQJLQJWKHFODLPVDQGDVVXPSWLRQVDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DV FLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLV RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQVDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFVDVFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DV FLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUHFRPSOLFDWHGDQDO\VLVRIVHHGGLVSHUVDOE\FKDOOHQJLQJWKHFODLPVDQG DVVXPSWLRQVDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFVDVFLWHG LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUHFRPSOLFDWHGDQDO\VLVRIGLDVSRUDSROLWLFV E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DV FLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRPSOLFDWHGDQDO\VLVRIVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQE\FKDOOHQJLQJWKHFODLPVDQG DVVXPSWLRQVDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFVDVFLWHG LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUHFRPSOLFDWHGDQDO\VLVRIPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLPV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DV FLWHG LQ 6HF DQG WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\VLV RI PLJUDWLRQ IRU UHOLJLRXV IUHHGRP E\ FKDOOHQJLQJ WKHFODLPVDQGDVVXPSWLRQVDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKH FULWLFVDVFLWHGLQ6HF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $JDLQLWVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHG KRZHYHUWKDWWKHUHDUHGLIIHUHQWVKDGHV RI JUD\ RU GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI WUXWK LQ WKH WZR RSSRVLWHV DQG WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH HLWKHU ,Q IDFW HYHQ ZKHQVRPHFRPELQDWLRQVRIWKHWZRRFFXUWKH\RQO\HQG XSVKDULQJWKH VDPHGLDOHFWLFUHODWLRQVKLSEXWLQDGLIIHUHQWGHJUHH $OVR WKHUH DUH VRPH RWKHU UHODWLRQVKLSV DV D NLQG RI IDPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH ZKLFK KDYH VRPHWKLQJ LQ FRPPRQ ZLWK WKH SULQFLSOH EXW
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
WKH\ DUH QRW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EXW RQO\ PRUH RU OHVV FRPSDUDEOH ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH *RRGH[DPSOHVRIIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHSULQFLSOHDUH LQIOH[LELOLW\IOH[LELOLW\ VWDQGDUGL]DWLRQVSHFLDOL]DWLRQ LPSHUIHFWQHVV SHUIHFWQHVV VXSHUILFLDOLW\GHSWK VKDOORZQHVVGHHSQHVV HFRQRPLFDOQHVV HODERUDWHGQHVV SODLQQHVVFLUFXPVSHFWLRQ RQHVLGHGQHVVPXOWLVLGHGQHVV VXFFLQFWQHVVGXSOLFDWHGQHVVDQGWKHOLNH
WK7KHVLV7KH2SHQQHVV+LGGHQQHVV3ULQFLSOH 7KH WHQWK WKHVLV UHIHUV WR WKH RSHQQHVVKLGGHQHQVV SULQFLSOH RQ WKH GHWHFWLRQRIWKLQJV LQWKHFDWHJRU\RI ³VWUXFWXUH´LQH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFV ZKLFK ZDV DOUHDG\ ZRUNHG RXW LQ P\ SUHYLRXV ERRNV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ )3+8 LQWKDWUHDOLW\KDVLWVKLGGHQIDFHMXVWDVLWLVRSHQWRRXWVLGHYLHZ LQ VRPHRWKHU ZD\V7KHUHLVQRRSHQQHVV ZLWKRXW KLGGHQQHVV²DQGYLFH YHUVD )RU LQVWDQFH RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKHUH LV RSHQQHVV HJ WKH RSHQ H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH PHFKDQLVPV OLNH ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ DQG ³H[RF\WRVLV´ IRU WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI FHOO PRYHPHQW LQ 6HF WKH RSHQ H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH IRXU SURFHVVHV IRU WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQLQ6HFWKHRSHQH[SORUDWLRQRIWKHFROODSVHRIDQHEXOD GXULQJ LWV HDUO\ HYROXWLRQ LQWR ³D KRW K\GURVWDWLF«FRUH FRQWDLQLQJ D VPDOOIUDFWLRQRIWKHPDVVRIWKHRULJLQDOQHEXOD´ZKLFK³IRUPVWKHVHHG RI ZKDW ZLOO EHFRPH D VWDU´ LQ 6HF WKH RSHQ H[SORUDWLRQ RI ³FOLPDWLF UHJLRQV´ ZKLFK ³WHQG WR IDGH LQWR RQH DQRWKHU RYHU D ORQJ GLVWDQFHUDWKHUWKDQEHHQWLUHO\VHSDUDWHWKLVPHDQVWKDWUDWKHUWKDQPDNH ORQJWULSVRYHUXQVXLWDEOHKDELWDWWRUHDFKSDUWLFXODUGHVWLQDWLRQVPLJUDQW VSHFLHV FDQ XVXDOO\ WUDYHO DW D UHOD[HG SDFH IHHGLQJ DV WKH\ JR´ LQ 6HF WKHRSHQH[SORUDWLRQRIWKHIXVLRQRIHFRQRPLFVZLWKSROLWLFVXQGHU WKHJXLGDQFHRI6RYLHWLGHRORJ\IRUWKHDEVROXWHSRZHURIWKHVWDWHLQ6HF WKH RSHQ H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH UHDVRQV DJDLQVW LPPLJUDWLRQ E\ &RQJUHVVPDQ $OEHUW -RKQVRQ DQG 6HQDWRU 'DYLG 5HHG´ ZKR ³ZHUH WKH WZR PDLQ DUFKLWHFWV´ LQ 6HF WKH RSHQ H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH ³DGYDQWDJHV´RILPPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQOLNHWKHFODLPE\DVVLPLOLDWLRQLVWV WKDW LW FDQ ³EHQHILW VRFLHW\ HFRQRPLFDOO\´ LQ 6HF WKH RSHQ H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH &KULVWLDQ LQIOXHQFH RQ 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW LQ 6HF WKHRSHQH[SORUDWLRQRI³DQWL6HPLWLVPLQSUH::,,(XURSH´LQWKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH RSHQ H[SORUDWLRQ RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´LQWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQLQ6HFWKHRSHQH[SORUDWLRQ RIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQPLJUDWLRQDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQ6HF
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
VHHGGLVSHUVDOE\ZLQGLQWKHRSHQDLUZKHQ³VHHGV«IORDWRQWKHEUHH]H´ RXWGRRULQ6HFWKHRSHQH[SORUDWLRQRIWKHSRZHUIXO-HZLVKOREE\ JURXS LQ $PHULFD LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH RSHQ H[SORUDWLRQRIWKHGLIIHUHQWPHWKRGVDQGORFDWLRQVRIVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLQ 6HFWKHRSHQH[SORUDWLRQRIWKHJRRGUHDVRQVIRUPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPLQ PRGHUQWLPHVLQ6HFDQGWKHRSHQH[SORUDWLRQRIUHOLJLRXVIUHHGRP E\WKH3LOJULPVLQ3O\PRXWK&RORQ\LQ6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV KLGGHQQHVV HJ WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH VWXG\RIWKHPHFKDQLVPVOLNH³DFWLQSRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´DQG³H[RF\WRVLV´IRU WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI FHOO PRYHPHQW VLQFH LW LJQRUHV WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI ³FHOOVZLPPLQJ´QRUGRHVLWDGHTXDWHO\DGGUHVVWKHLVVXHFRQFHUQLQJWKH DUURZFRQQHFWLQJWKHIURQWDQGWKHEDFNRIDFHOOZKLFKLVVWLOOXQNQRZQ HWF LQ 6HF WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH IRXU SURFHVVHV VLQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV WKH VWXG\ UHOLHV WRR PXFK RQ HYROXWLRQDU\ WKHRU\ WKDW LW GRHV QRW JLYHVXIILFLHQWDWWHQWLRQWRWKHSKHQRPHQRQRIVSHFLHVZKLFKSUHIHUWRVWD\ ZKHUHWKH\OLYHDQGGRQRWPLJUDWHHWFLQ6HFLQWKHHDUO\VWDWHRI WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI D VRODU V\VWHP ³WKH SURWRVWDU DQG LWV GLVN DUH KHDYLO\ REVFXUHGE\WKHLQIDOOLQJHQYHORSHDQGDUHQRWGLUHFWO\REVHUYDEOH´LQ6HF WKHKLGGHQELDVLQWKLV OLQNDJHRI ³FOLPDWLFUHJLRQV´ ZLWK ³PLJUDQW VSHFLHV´ EHFDXVH ³LW LV RIWHQ QRW REYLRXV WKDW WKH ELUGV VHHQ LQ DQ\ SDUWLFXODUORFDOLW\DVWKHVHDVRQVFKDQJHDUHLQIDFWGLIIHUHQW PHPEHUVRI WKH VDPH VSHFLHV SDVVLQJ WKURXJK JUDGXDOO\ ZRUNLQJ WKHLU ZD\ QRUWK RU VRXWK´ LQ 6HF WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH IXVLRQ RI HFRQRPLFV ZLWK SROLWLFV XQGHU WKH JXLGDQFH RI 6RYLHW LGHRORJ\ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH FULWLFLVP DERXW WRWDOLWDULDQ VHFUHF\ LQ WKDW ³VWDUWLQJ LQ -RVHSK 6WDOLQ KDG DOUHDG\ HIIHFWLYHO\ VHDOHG RII RXWVLGH DFFHVV WR WKH 6RYLHW 6RFLDOLVW 5HSXEOLFV« HIIHFWLYHO\ SHUPLWWLQJ QR IRUHLJQ WUDYHO LQVLGH WKH 6RYLHW 8QLRQVXFKWKDWRXWVLGHUVGLGQRWNQRZRIWKHSROLWLFDOSURFHVVHVWKDWKDG WDNHQSODFHWKHUHLQ´ LQ6HFWKHKLGGHQELDVLQWKHUHDVRQVDJDLQVW LPPLJUDWLRQ E\ &RQJUHVVPDQ $OEHUW -RKQVRQ DQG 6HQDWRU 'DYLG 5HHG EHFDXVH RI WKHLU HWKQLF GLVFULPLQDWLRQ DJDLQVW ³6RXWKHUQ DQG (DVWHUQ (XURSHDQV´DQGWKHLUUDFLVPDJDLQVWWKRVHIURPWKH$VLD±3DFLILF7ULDQJOH LQ 6HF WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH FODLP E\ DVVLPLOLDWLRQLVWV WKDW LW FDQ ³EHQHILW VRFLHW\ HFRQRPLFDOO\´ VLQFH IRU WKH PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVWV ³DVVLPLODWLRQFDQKXUWPLQRULW\FXOWXUHVE\VWULSSLQJDZD\WKHLUGLVWLQFWLYH IHDWXUHV«0XOWLFXOWXUDOLVWV QRWH WKDW DVVLPLODWLRQ LQ SUDFWLFH KDV RIWHQ EHHQIRUFHGDQGKDVFDXVHGLPPLJUDQWVWR KDYH VHYHUHGWLHV ZLWK IDPLO\ DEURDG´ LQ 6HF WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH &KULVWLDQ LQIOXHQFH RQ 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW VLQFH ³WKH FRQYHUVLRQ RI *HUPDQLF SHRSOHV >WR &KULVWLDQLW\@E\WKHHQGRIWKHWKFHQWXULHVLQZHVWHUQ(XURSH´HYHQWXDOO\ OHG WR WKH ³VWHDG\ GHFOLQH LQ *HUPDQLF IRUPV´ DQG WKH ³LQFUHDVH«>RI@
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
0HGLWHUUDQHDQLQIOXHQFH´LQ6HFWKHKLGGHQELDVLQWKHGLVFRXUVHRQ ³DQWL6HPLWLVP LQ SUH::,, (XURSH´ LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG EHFDXVH LW LJQRUHG RWKHU IDFWRUV E\ -HZV WKHPVHOYHV ZKLFK FRQWULEXWHG WR DQWL VHPLWLVP OLNH WKH -HZLVK HFRQRPLF H[SORLWDWLRQ RI &KULVWLDQV E\ ZD\ RI XVXU\ IRU FHQWXULHV WKH -HZLVK GLVFULPLDWLRQ DJDLQVW JHQWLOHV WKHLU H[FOXVLYH HQGRJDPLF UHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWK WKHPVHOYHV RQO\ HWF LQ 6HF WKHKLGGHQELDVLQ³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´LQWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQ VLQFH IRUWKHFULWLFVLWIRFXVHVWRRPXFKRQWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOOHYHOWKDW HYHQ DW WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO OHYHO WKHUH DUH DOWHUQDWLYH H[SODQDWLRQV WKDW LW GRHVQRWJLYHVXIILFLHQWZHLJKWWRDEVROXWHGHSULYDWLRQHWFLQ6HF WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ PLJUDWLRQ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH VLQFH IRU WKH FULWLFV PDQ\ RI LWV ILQGLQJV DUH LQFRQVLVWHQWDQGXQVRXQGWKDWLWLVQRWIDOVLILDEOHHWFLQ6HFVHHG GLVSHUVDOE\DQLPDOVKLGGHQXQGHUJURXQGWKURXJK³P\UPHFRFKRU\´ZKHQ ³DQWV FDUU\ VXFK VHHGV LQWR WKHLU FRORQLHV IHHG WKH HODLRVRPH WR WKHLU ODUYDHDQGGLVFDUGWKHRWKHUZLVHLQWDFWVHHGLQDQXQGHUJURXQGFKDPEHU´ LQ 6HF WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH SRZHUIXO -HZLVK OREE\ JURXS LQ $PHULFD LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG EHFDXVH WKH SRZHUIXO -HZLVK OREE\ LV DQ H[WUHPH H[DPSOH RU DQ RXWOLQHU ZKLOH PDQ\ HWKQLF LQWHUHVWJURXSVOLNHWKH$]HUEDLMDQHWKQLFLQWHUHVWJURXSLQ$PHULFDDUHQRW SRZHUIXO DW DOO LQ 6HF WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI GLIIHUHQW PHWKRGVDQGORFDWLRQVRIVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQVLQFHLWLJQRUHVDORWRIGHHS TXHVWLRQV ZKLFK QHHGWREHDGGUHVVHGOLNHWKHFRQFHUQ ³DERXWFUHDWLQJ D FXOWXUH LQ ZKLFK KXPDQV DUH QR ORQJHU VHHQ DV KXPDQ EXW UDWKHU DV PDWHULDO DVVHWV´ DQG ³WKH LVVXHV RI KXPDQ GLJQLW\ PRUDOLW\ SKLORVRSK\ FXOWXUH ELRHWKLFV DQG WKH WKUHDW RI PHJDORPDQLDF OHDGHUV LQ WKHVH QHZ
VRFLHWLHV ZRXOGDOOKDYHWREHDGGUHVVHGLQRUGHUIRUVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQWR PHHW WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO DQG VRFLDO QHHGV RI SHRSOH OLYLQJ LQ LVRODWHG FRORQLHV RU JHQHUDWLRQ VKLSV´ LQ 6HF WKH KLGGHQ ELDV LQ WKH JRRG UHDVRQVIRUPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPLQPRGHUQWLPHVVLQFHWKH\LJQRUHWKHVHULRXV SUREOHPV ZLWK PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HFDQGWKHKLGGHQELDVRIWKH3LOJULPVLQ3O\PRXWK&RORQ\VLQFH WKH\GLVFULPLQDWHGDJDLQVWWKH³VWUDQJHUV´>³WKHQRQ3LOJULPVHWWOHUV´@DQG WKH ³3DUWLFXODUV´ >³ODWHU VHWWOHUV WKDW SDLG WKHLU RZQ SDUWLFXODU ZD\ WR $PHULFD DQG WKXV ZHUH QRW REOLJHG WR SD\ WKH FRORQ\ V GHEWV´@ LQ 6HF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $JDLQLWVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHG KRZHYHUWKDWWKHUHDUHGLIIHUHQWVKDGHV RI JUD\ RU GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI WUXWK LQ WKH WZR RSSRVLWHV DQG WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH HLWKHU ,Q IDFW HYHQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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
7KHVLV7KH'HQVHQHVV(PSWLQHVV3ULQFLSOH
7KH HOHYHQWK WKHVLV FRQFHUQV WKH GHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVV SULQFLSOH RQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI HQWLWLHV LQ VSDFH LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³VWUXFWXUH´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV ZKLFK LV ILUVW SURSRVHG LQ )3+83 LQ WKDW ERWK GHQVLW\ DQG YRLG DUH QHHGHGLQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH PLQG QDWXUH FXOWXUH DQG VRFLHW\ DOEHLW LQ GLIIHUHQW ZD\V 7KHUH LV QR GHQVHQHVV ZLWKRXW HPSWLQHVV²DQGYLFHYHUVD /HVWDQ\PLVXQGHUVWDQGLQJRFFXUVWKHWHUP³YRLG´LVXVHGKHUHRQO\ DVDQDSSUR[LPDWLRQRIHPSWLQHVVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHGHJUHHRIWKHODFNRI GHQVLW\ VLQFH LQ SK\VLFV LW LV ZHOO NQRZQ WKDW ³HPSW\´ VSDFH LV QRW UHDOO\ HPSW\ DOO WKH ZD\ EHFDXVH LW FDQ EH IXOO RI HQHUJ\ HJ UDQGRP TXDQWXP IOXFWXDWLRQV DW WKH VXEDWRPLF OHYHO DQG IRU WKDW PDWWHU GDUN HQHUJ\LQ WKHXQLYHUVH DQG PDWWHUHJGLIIHUHQW YHUVLRQVRIVXEDWRPLF SDUWLFOHV DQG IRU WKDW PDWWHU GDUN PDWWHU LQ WKH XQLYHUVH ) :LOF]HN )RULQVWDQFHRQWKHRQHKDQGWKHUHLVGHQVHQHVVHJWKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWK³DFWLQSRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´E\WKRVHLQ ³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\GHQVHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK ³QHXWUDO PXWDWLRQV DQG JHQHWLF GULIW´ E\ VRPHRQH OLNH 0RWRR .LPXUD LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI ³K\GURJHQDQGKHOLXPWKHOLJKWHVWDQGPRVWDEXQGDQWHOHPHQWV´LQJLDQW SODQHWV LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI ³PLJUDWLQJ ELUGVDWVWRSRYHUVLWHV´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\GHQVHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV LQ WKH 6RYLHW 8QLRQ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQRILPPLJUDQWVIURP1RUWKZHVWHUQ(XURSHDUULYLQJLQ WKH 86 XQGHU WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV E\ PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVWV ZLWK ³VSHFLDO SULYLOHJHV´ IRU ³PLQRULWLHV DW WKH H[SHQVH RI WKH PDMRULW\´ LQ 6HF WKHUHODWLYHO\GHQVHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWKWKHDEVWUDFWGHSLFWLRQ
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
RI DQLPDOV LQ WKH DQLPDO VW\OH LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK ³EHQHILWV´ E\ D KRVW FRXQWU\ ZKLFK WDNHV DGYDQWDJH RI D ³EUDLQ JDLQ´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ E\ WKRVH IRU WKH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKHRU\ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWKWKHHQXPHUDWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWDOUHIXJHHV DQGPLJUDQWVE\VRPHRQHOLNH1RUPDQ0\HUVLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ DQLPDOV LQ ³DQ HSL]RRFKRURXV SODQW´NQRZQDV³7ULIROLXPDQJXVWLIROLXPDVSHFLHVRI2OG:RUOGFORYHU ZKLFKDGKHUHVWRDQLPDOIXUE\PHDQVRIVWLIIKDLUVFRYHULQJWKHVHHG´LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK ³GXDO OR\DOW\´ LQ D GLDVSRUD FRPPXQLW\ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWK³OLIHVXSSRUWDQG«WUDQVSRUWDWLRQLQYROYHG LQ PDQQHG PLVVLRQV´ E\ WKRVH LQ VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\GHQVHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWKPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPE\WKRVH OLYLQJ LQ FRQWHPSRUDU\ ,QGLD LQ 6HF DQG WKH UHODWLYHO\ GHQVHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWK³UHOLJLRXVXQLIRUPLW\´E\5LFKDUG+RRNHU LQ6HF 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHUHLVHPSWLQHVVHJWKHUHODWLYHO\OHVVGHQVHRU PRUHHPSW\FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWK³H[RF\WRVLV´E\WKRVHLQ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWKQHXWUDOPXWDWLRQVDQGJHQHWLFGULIW E\VRPHRQHOLNH-RKQ+*LOOHVSLHDQG:LOO3URYLQHZKRIDYRUHGVHOHFWLRQ LQVWHDG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI ³K\GURJHQ DQG KHOLXP WKH OLJKWHVW DQG PRVW DEXQGDQW HOHPHQWV´LQURFN\SODQHWVLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\OHVVGHQVHRUPRUH HPSW\FRQFHQWUDWLRQRI³PLJUDWLQJELUGV´LQ³DODUJHDUHDRIODQGZLWKRXW ERGLHV RI ZDWHU WKDW RIIHU IHHGLQJ VLWHV´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV LQ FRQWHPSRUDU\ 5XVVLD LQ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUHHPSW\FRQFHQWUDWLRQRILPPLJUDQWV IURPWKH $VLD±3DFLILF7ULDQJOH DUULYLQJLQWKH86XQGHUWKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRILQ6HFWKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV E\ DVVLPLODWLRQLVWVZLWK³VSHFLDOSULYLOHJHV´IRU³PLQRULWLHVDWWKHH[SHQVHRI WKH PDMRULW\´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK WKH DEVWUDFW GHSLFWLRQ RI DQLPDOV LQ VWRQH VFXOSWXUH LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWK³EHQHILWV´E\DKRPHFRXQWU\ZKLFKVXIIHUV IURP D ³EUDLQ GUDLQ´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWK³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´E\WKRVHIRU DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHOV OLNH ³ZRUOG V\VWHPV WKHRU\´ HWF LQ 6HF WKH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK WKH HQXPHUDWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWDOUHIXJHHVDQGPLJUDQWVLQWKHZD\SURSRVHG E\ 1RUPDQ 0\HUV EHFDXVH WKH FULWLF 9LNUDP .ROPDQQVNRJ ³KDV VWDWHG WKDW 0\HUV¶ ZRUN FDQ EH FULWLFL]HG IRU EHLQJ LQFRQVLVWHQW LPSRVVLEOH WR FKHFNDQGIDLOLQJWRWDNHSURSHUDFFRXQWRIRSSRUWXQLWLHVWRDGDSW ´LQ6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDOE\DQLPDOVLQ³ZDWHUOLOLHV IORZHUV´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\ OHVVGHQVHRUPRUHHPSW\FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRQFHUQVZLWK³GXDOOR\DOW\´ LQ D KRVW VWDWH DPRQJ ³RSSRUWXQLVW H[WUHPLVWV´ ZKR GR QRW WUXVW WKH GLDVSRUD FRPPXQLW\ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK ³OLIH VXSSRUW DQG UHWXUQ WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ LQYROYHG LQ PDQQHG PLVVLRQV´ E\ WKRVH ³VFLHQFH ILFWLRQ ZULWHUV >ZKR@ KDYH IRFXVHG RQ WKH UHDOP RI WKH LQQHUVSDFH WKDW LV WKH FRPSXWHU DLGHG H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH KXPDQ PLQG DQG KXPDQ FRQVFLRXVQHVV´DV³DQDOWHUQDWLYH´WRVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLQ6HFWKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ZLWK PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPE\WKRVHOLYLQJLQFRQWHPSRUDU\-DSDQLQ6HFDQG WKH UHODWLYHO\ OHVV GHQVH RU PRUH HPSW\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FRQFHUQV ³UHOLJLRXVXQLIRUPLW\´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
7KHVLV7KH&KDQJH&RQVWDQF\3ULQFLSOH
7KH WZHOIWK WKHVLV FRQFHUQV WKH FKDQJHFRQVWDQF\ SULQFLSOH RQ WKH DOWHUDWLRQ RI WKLQJV LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³SURFHVV´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV ZKLFK LV ILUVW QDPHG LQ %&3& DQG ZHUH ZRUNHG RXW LQ P\ ERRNV OLNH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
)+& )&' DQG )3+& LQ WKDW FKDQJH RFFXUV RYHU WLPH DOWKRXJK FRQVWDQF\LVDOVRDOORZHG 2OGSOD\HUVIDGHDZD\DQGQHZRQHVHPHUJHVZLWKHYHUQHZFDXVHV DQGHYHUQHZIRUPV²DQGDV\PPHWU\XQGHUJRHVFKDQJHVRYHUWLPHWRRVR GRHVV\PPHWU\7KHUHLVQRFKDQJHZLWKRXWFRQVWDQF\²DQGYLFHYHUVD )RULQVWDQFHRQWKHRQHKDQGWKHUHLVFKDQJHHJWKHHYHUQHZZD\V WR XQGHUVWDQG PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKHHYHUQHZZD\VWRXQGHUVWDQGPLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH XQLYHUVHDVVKRZQ LQWKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVLQ6HFWKHHYHUQHZ ZD\VWRVWXG\PLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RIELUGPLJUDWLRQLQ6HF WKHHYHUQHZZD\VWRXQGHUVWDQGPLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RI WKH(DVWHUQ%ORFHPLJUDWLRQUHVWULFWLRQVLQ6HFWKHHYHUQHZZD\V WR GHDO ZLWK LPPLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI LQ 6HF WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR XQGHUVWDQG PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH VWXG\RILPPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQLQ6HFWKHHYHUQHZZD\VWRVWXG\ PLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUWLQ6HFWKH HYHUQHZZD\VWRVWXG\PLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RIEUDLQJDLQLQ 6HF³REMHFWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ«LQWKHZRUOGPD\FKDQJHRYHUWLPH´LQ 6HFWKHHYHUQHZZD\VWRVWXG\PLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR VWXG\ PLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDOLQ6HFWKHHYHU QHZZD\VWRVWXG\PLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RIGLDVSRUDSROLWLFVLQ 6HFWKHHYHUQHZZD\VWRVWXG\PLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RI VSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLQ6HFWKHHYHUQHZZD\VWRVWXG\PLJUDWLRQDV VKRZQLQWKHVWXG\RIPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPDQGGLYHUVLW\LQ6HFDQGWKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR VWXG\ PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI PLJUDWLRQIRUUHOLJLRXVIUHHGRPLQ6HF 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHUHLVFRQVWDQF\HJWKHHYHUFRQVWDQWH[LVWHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW SUREOHPV LQ WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR XQGHUVWDQG PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVZLWKWKHVWXG\RIFHOOPLJUDWLRQSRLQWHGRXWE\WKH FULWLFV DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH HYHU FRQVWDQW H[LVWHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW SUREOHPVZLWKWKHHYHUQHZZD\VWRXQGHUVWDQGPLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKH SUREOHPV ZLWK WKH VWXG\ RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV LQ 6HFWKHHYHUFRQVWDQWH[LVWHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWSUREOHPVZLWKWKHHYHU QHZ ZD\VWRXQGHUVWDQGWKH XQLYHUVHDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPV ZLWKWKH QHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFVDIRUHFLWHGLQ6HFWKH HYHU FRQVWDQW H[LVWHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW SUREOHPV LQ WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR VWXG\PLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVZLWKWKHVWXG\RIELUGPLJUDWLRQ SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV LQ 6HF WKH HYHU FRQVWDQW H[LVWHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW SUREOHPV LQ WKH HYHU QHZ ZD\V WR XQGHUVWDQG PLJUDWLRQ DV
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ ZLOO«SHUVLVW´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
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
WKH\ DUH QRW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EXW RQO\ PRUH RU OHVV FRPSDUDEOH ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH *RRGH[DPSOHVRIIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHSULQFLSOHDUH G\QDPLFQHVVVWDWLFQHVVLQVWDELOLW\VWDELOLW\DQGWKHOLNH
WK7KHVLV7KH2UGHU&KDRV3ULQFLSOH 7KH WKLUWHHQWK WKHVLV LV FDOOHG WKH WKH RUGHUFKDRV SULQFLSOH RQ WKH SDWWHUQRIWKLQJV LQWKHFDWHJRU\RI³SURFHVV´LQH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVDV ILUVW ZRUNHG RXW LQ )& LQ WKDW ERWK RUGHU DQG FKDRV DUH YLWDO LQ WKH SURFHVVRIFKDQJHLQWKHZRUOG 7KH SUHIHUHQFH IRU RUGHU LV ELDVHG VLQFH LW GRHV QRW JLYH VXIILFLHQW DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH YLWDO UROH RI FKDRV LQ WKH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI WKH ZRUOG ZLWKRXWVRPHKRZUHGXFLQJLWIRUWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIRUGHU 7KHUHLVQR RUGHUZLWKRXWFKDRV²DQGYLFHYHUVD 7KHVFLHQWLILFVHDUFKIRURUGHULQWKHZRUOGLVRIWHQDKLGGHQELDVLQLWV RQWRORJLFDOREVHVVLRQZLWKRUGHUVLQFHFKDRVLVRIWHQWUHDWHGDVWKH³EDG´ JX\ZLWKRUGHUDVWKH³JRRG´JX\IRUWKHHQGJRDORIVFLHQFH 1HLWKHURUGHUQRUFKDRVLVWKHILQDOHQGRIWKHZRUOGDQGRQHLVQRWWR EHWUHDWHGDVWKHPHDQVIRUWKHRWKHULQWKHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIWKLQJV%RWK DUHIXQGDPHQWDOLQWKHLUUHFXUUHQWGLDOHFWLFDO LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWKHDFKRWKHU RYHUWLPHZLWKRXWUHGXFLQJRQHIRUWKHRWKHU )RU LQVWDQFH RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKHUH LV RUGHU HJ WKH PRUH RU OHVV RUGHUO\QDWXUHRIFHOOPRYHPHQWLQVRIDUDVLWFDQEHXQGHUVWRRGLQWHUPV RI WKH PHFKDQLVPV OLNH ³DFWLQ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ´ DQG ³H[RF\WRVLV´ LQ 6HF WKHPRUHRUOHVVRUGHUO\DSSHDUDQFHRIYDULDWLRQLIXQGHUVWRRGIURP WKHYDQWDJHSRLQWRIEOHQGLQJLQKHULWDQFHGXULQJWKHWKFHQWXU\LQ6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV RUGHUO\ DSSHDUDQFH RI WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI WKH VRODU V\VWHPLIH[DPLQHGIURPWKHWH[WERRNYHUVLRQRIWKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVLQ WHUPV RI SURWRVWDUV SURWRSODQHWDU\ GLVNV DQG SODQHWV DV QHDWO\ GHVFULEHG LQ WKH DUWLFOH DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV RUGHUO\ QDWXUH RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ ZKHQ ³ELUGV PLJUDWH EHWZHHQ QRUWKHUQ DQG VRXWKHUQ UHJLRQV´ DQG ³WKH PDJQHWLF ILHOG VWUHQJWKV DW GLIIHUHQW ODWLWXGHV OHW LW LQWHUSUHWWKHUDGLFDOSDLUPHFKDQLVPPRUHDFFXUDWHO\DQGOHWLWNQRZZKHQ LWKDVUHDFKHGLWVGHVWLQDWLRQ´LQ6HFWKHPRUHRUOHVVRUGHUO\QDWXUH RIHPLJUDWLRQZKHQ³UHVWULFWLRQVLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKH(DVWHUQ%ORFGXULQJ WKH &ROG :DU VWRSSHG PRVW (DVW:HVW PLJUDWLRQ ZLWK RQO\ PLOOLRQ PLJUDWLRQVZHVWZDUGEHWZHHQDQG´LQ6HFWKHPRUHRU OHVV RUGHUO\ DVSHFW RI WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJHSRLQWRILWVSURYLVLRQ ZKLFK IURPWR³VHWWKHDQQXDO TXRWD RI DQ\ QDWLRQDOLW\ DW RI WKH QXPEHU RI IRUHLJQERUQ SHUVRQV RI
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
VXFK QDWLRQDOLW\ UHVLGHQW LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV LQ ´ LQ6HF WKH PRUHRUOHVVRUGHUO\UHDOLW\RILPPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQLI ORRNHGIURPWKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI WKH ³FRQYHUJHQFH´ WKHRUHWLFDO PRGHO LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV RUGHUO\ UHDOLW\ RI DQLPDO VW\OH LI H[SORUHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQWRI6DOLQ¶VFODVVLILFDWLRQRI6W\OHV,,,DQG,,,RQO\LQ6HFWKH PRUH RU OHVV RUGHUO\ DSSHDUDQFH RI WKH +XJXHQRW H[RGXV IURP )UDQFH LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\ LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI ³3UXVVLD²ZKRVH &DOYLQLVW*UHDW(OHFWRU)UHGHULFN:LOOLDPZHOFRPHGWKHPWRKHOSUHEXLOG KLV ZDUUDYDJHG DQG XQGHUSRSXODWHG FRXQWU\´ LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVVRUGHUO\QDWXUHRIUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQLIYLHZHGIURPWKHVWDQGSRLQWRI WKRVHLQWKHFRQWH[WRIPLJUDWLRQLQWKDW³WKHLQFHQWLYHWRPLJUDWHLVDORW KLJKHU LQ DUHDV WKDW KDYH D KLJK OHYHO RI HFRQRPLF LQHTXDOLW\´ LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV RUGHUO\ QDWXUH RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW WKDW HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWV FDQ EH FODVVLILHG LQ WHUPV RI WKUHH W\SHV LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV RUGHUO\ YLHZ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVWKDW³VHHGVXUYLYDOLVRIWHQKLJKHUDZD\IURP WKH SDUHQW SODQW´ LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV RUGHUO\ DSSHDUDQFH RI ³OR\DOW\´LIH[DPLQHGIURPWKHYLHZRIDQ[HQRSKRELFQDWLYLVWWKDWWKHUHLV RQO\RQHOR\DOW\WRZDUGVWKHKRVWVWDWHDOORZHGLQ6HFWKHPRUHRU OHVVRUGHUO\QDWXUHRIVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLIORRNHGIURPWKHYDQWDJHSRLQW RI LWV VSHFLILHG ORFDWLRQV LQ RXU 6RODU 6\VWHP LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVVRUGHUO\UHDOLW\LIYLHZHGIURPWKHYDQWDJHSRLQWRI³-DSDQHVHVRFLHW\ ZLWK LWV«KRPRJHQHLW\´ LQ ³D RQH UDFH QDWLRQ´ LQ 6HF DQG WKH PRUHRUOHVVRUGHUO\VLWXDWLRQRIWKH1DWLYH,QGLDQVLQWKHWKFHQWXU\LQ 0DVVDFKXVHWWVDQGQHDUE\DUHDVLIORRNHGIURPWKHYDQWDJHSRLQWRIWKHLU EHLQJ RUJDQL]HG LQWR PDLQ WULEDO FRQIHGHUDWLRQV OLNH ³1LSPXFNV WKH 0DVVDFKXVHWW WKH 1DUUDJDQVHWW WKH 1LDQWLFV WKH 0RKHJDQ DQG WKH :DPSDQRDJ´LQ6HF 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHUHLVFKDRVHJWKHPRUHRUOHVVFKDRWLFQDWXUH RIFHOOPRYHPHQWLQVRIDUDVWKH³OHDGLQJIURQW´RIDFHOO³LVKLJKO\DFWLYH VRPHWLPHV VSUHDGLQJ IRUZDUG TXLFNO\ VRPHWLPHV UHWUDFWLQJ VRPHWLPHV UXIIOLQJRUEXEEOLQJ´DQGRIWHQ´PRYHVUDQGRPO\´LQ6HFWKHPRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF DSSHDUDQFH RI YDULDWLRQ LI XQGHUVWRRG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI ³UDQGRP VDPSOLQJ´ DV LQ JHQHWLF GULIW PXWDWLRQ HWF LQ SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFV QRZDGD\V LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF DSSHDUDQFH RI WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI WKH VRODU V\VWHP LI H[DPLQHG IURP WKH YDQWDQJHSRLQWRIWKHFULWLFVZKRTXHVWLRQWKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLVLQWHUPV RIWKHSUREOHPVDIRUHFLWHGLQ6HFWKHPRUHRUOHVVFKDRWLFQDWXUHRI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ ZKHQ ³YDJUDQF\´ RFFXUV ZLWK WKH RFFDVLRQDO IDLOXUH RI ³JHQHWLF SURJUDPPLQJ´ LQ PLJUDWLQJ ELUGV VXFK WKDW WKH\ ³FDQ ORVH WKHLU
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
ZD\ DQG DSSHDU RXWVLGH WKHLU QRUPDO UDQJHV´ WR WKH SRLQW WKDW ³GULIW PLJUDWLRQRIELUGVEORZQRIIFRXUVHE\WKHZLQGFDQUHVXOWLQ IDOOV RIODUJH QXPEHUV RI PLJUDQWV DW FRDVWDO VLWHV´ LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLFQDWXUHRIHPLJUDWLRQ³DWWKHHQGRIDQGIROORZLQJ:RUOG:DU,,´ ZKHQ ³DW OHDVW WZHOYH PLOOLRQ HWKQLF *HUPDQ 9RONVGHXWVFKH RU 5HLFKVGHXWVFKHIOHGRUZHUHH[SHOOHGPRVWO\LQDQGIURP6RYLHWRFFXSLHG WHUULWRULHVEHFRPLQJWKH(DVWHUQ%ORFPDNLQJLWWKHODUJHVWPRYHPHQWRI DQ\(XURSHDQSHRSOHLQPRGHUQKLVWRU\´DQG³DWOHDVWWZRPLOOLRQSHRSOH SHULVKHG GXH WR IOLJKW DQG H[SXOVLRQ WR RI ZKRP E\ SK\VLFDO IRUFH´ LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF DVSHFW RI WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRILIORRNHGIURPWKHYDQWDJHSRLQWRILWVLPSDFW ZKLFK³YDULHGZLGHO\E\FRXQWU\´DV³LPPLJUDWLRQIURP*UHDW%ULWDLQDQG ,UHODQG IHOO ZKLOH LPPLJUDWLRQ IURP ,WDO\ IHOO PRUH WKDQ ´ IRU H[DPSOH LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF UHDOLW\ RI LPPLJUDQW DVVLPLODWLRQ LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI WKH ³IUDJPHQWDWLRQ´ WKHRUHWLFDOPRGHOLQ6HFWKHPRUHRUOHVVFKDRWLFUHDOLW\RIDQLPDO VW\OH LI H[SORUHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI ³DERXW ORFDOLVHG VW\OHV´ KDYLQJEHHQGLVFRYHUHG´E\UHVHDUFKHUVVRWKDW³LWLVQRORQJHUYHU\XVHIXO WRWDONRIDJHQHUDO*HUPDQLFVW\OH´OLNHWKHRQHVE\6DOLQLQ6HF WKHPRUHRUOHVVFKDRWLFDSSHDUDQFHRIWKH+XJXHQRWH[RGXVIURP)UDQFH LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\ LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI WKHLU ZDQGHULQJ JOREDO RG\VVH\ ZKHQ WKH\ ³ZLWK HVWLPDWHV UDQJLQJ IURP WR ´ IOHG WR GLIIHUHQW SODFHV OLNH ³(QJODQG WKH 1HWKHUODQGV 6ZLW]HUODQG 1RUZD\ 'HQPDUN DQG 3UXVVLD´ ³WKH 'XWFK FRORQ\ DW WKH &DSH´ LQ 6RXWK $IULFD ³WKH QHZO\ HVWDEOLVKHG %ULWLVK FRORQLHV LQ 1RUWK $PHULFD´ DQG VR RQ LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF QDWXUH RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ LI YLHZHG IURP WKH VWDQGSRLQW RI ³SROLWLFDO VFLHQWLVWV DQG VRFLRORJLVWV´ ZKR ³KDYH FLWHG UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ «DV D SRWHQWLDO FDXVHRIVRFLDOPRYHPHQWVDQGGHYLDQFHOHDGLQJWRH[WUHPHVLWXDWLRQVWR SROLWLFDOYLROHQFHVXFKDVULRWLQJWHUURULVPFLYLOZDUVDQGRWKHULQVWDQFHV RIVRFLDOGHYLDQFHVXFKDVFULPH´LQ6HFWKH PRUHRUOHVVFKDRWLF QDWXUHRIWKHVWXG\RIHQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQLIORRNHGIURPWKHYDQWDJH SRLQW WKDW ³>S@UHGLFWLYH PRGHOV KDYH«SURYHG HOXVLYH´ LQ 6HF WKH PRUHRUOHVVFKDRWLFRUUDQGRPYLHZRIVHHGGLVSHUVDOLIORRNHGIURPWKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI ³D VWXG\ E\ %XUNH\´ ZKLFK ³IRXQG WKDW VHHG SUHGDWLRQ GLG QRW IROORZ D SDWWHUQ VXSSRUWLQJ WKDW RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV DORQJ D PHDQLQJIXO VFDOH´ VLQFH ³VHHGV ZLWKLQ PHWUH IURP WKH WUXQN ZHUH KLJKO\ SUHGDWHG´ EXW ³VHHGV UHDFKHG WKHLU SHDN GHQVLW\ ZKLOHVWLOOXQGHUWKHFDQRS\RIWKHLUSDUHQW´LQ6HFWKHPRUHRUOHVV FKDRWLF DSSHDUDQFH RI ³OR\DOW\´ LI H[DPLQHG IURP FRQIOLFWLQJ YLHZV RI ³GXDO OR\DOW\´ OLNH WKH H[DPSOHV ³WKDW WKHUH H[LVWV D SDLU RI PLVDOLJQHG
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
LQWHUHVWV²YHUVXVZKDWPLJKWEHPRUHVLPSO\DSDLURISDUWLDOO\DOLJQHGRU HYHQ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH SDUW\ EHLQJ DFFXVHG D SDLU RI IXOO\ DOLJQHG LQWHUHVWV´ LQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF QDWXUH RI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ LI ORRNHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQW RI KLJKO\ XQSUHGLFWDEOH H[WUDWHUUHVWULDOHQYLURQPHQWVVWLOOQRW\HWZHOONQRZQWRFXUUHQWKXPDQVLQ 6HF WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLF UHDOLW\ LI YLHZHG IURP WKH YDQWDJH SRLQWRI,QGLD ZKLFKLV ³UDFLDOO\FXOWXUDOO\OLQJXLVWLFDOO\HWKQLFDOO\DQG UHOLJLRXVO\WKHPRVWGLYHUVHFRXQWU\LQWKHZRUOG´DQG³PRVWVWDWHVGLIIHU IURP RQH DQRWKHU LQ ODQJXDJH FXOWXUH FXLVLQH FORWKLQJ OLWHUDU\ VW\OH DUFKLWHFWXUH PXVLF DQG IHVWLYLWLHV´ LQ 6HF DQG WKH PRUH RU OHVV FKDRWLFVLWXDWLRQRIWKH1DWLYH,QGLDQVLIORRNHGIURPWKHYDQWDJHSRLQWRI ³WKH .LQJ 3KLOLS V :DU´ EHWZHHQ WKH (QJOLVK FRORQLVWV DQG WKH 1DWLYH ,QGLDQV ZKLFK ³KDG WKH PRVW GUDPDWLF HIIHFW RQ ORFDO SRSXODWLRQV UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKH GHDWK RU GLVSODFHPHQW RI DV PXFK DV RI WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI 1DWLYH $PHULFDQV RI VRXWKHUQ 1HZ (QJODQG DQG WKH HQVODYHPHQW DQG UHPRYDO RI WKRXVDQGV RI 1DWLYH $PHULFDQV WR WKH &DULEEHDQDQGRWKHUORFDOHV´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
7KHVLV7KH6ORZQHVV4XLFNQHVV3ULQFLSOH
7KH IRXUWHHQWK WKHVLV FRQFHUQV WKH VORZQHVVTXLFNQHVV SULQFLSOH RQ WKHVSHHGRIFKDQJH LQWKHFDWHJRU\RI³SURFHVV´LQH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFV ZKLFKZDVILUVWZRUNHGRXWLQ),$ LQWKDWERWKVORZQHVVDQGTXLFNQHVV FRH[LVWZLWKWKHLURZQLQWHUQDOWHQVLRQWRWKHH[WHQWWKDWHDFKILJKWVIRU LWV RZQ UHOHYDQFH ZLWK WKH RWKHU LQ DFFRUGDQFH WR WKH SHUVSHFWLYHV RI QDWXUHWKHPLQGFXOWXUHDQGVRFLHW\ZLWKRXWRQHEHLQJWKHYLFWRUDQGWKH RWKHUEHLQJWKHYDQTXLVKHGLQWKHORQJKDXO7KHUHLVQRVORZQHVVZLWKRXW TXLFNQHVV²DQGYLFHYHUVD
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
)RU LQVWDQFH RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKHUH LV VORZQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHUVSHHGRIDFHOOPRYHPHQWZKHQDFHOOQRUPDOO\PRYHVEHFDXVHLWV ³DFWXDO PRYHPHQW LV YHU\ VORZ²XVXDOO\ D IHZ PLFURPHWHUVPLQXWH´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU UDWH RI PXWDWLRQ WR RFFXU LI ³RUJDQLVPV KDYH HYROYHG PHFKDQLVPV VXFK DV '1$ UHSDLU WR UHPRYH PXWDWLRQV´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU VSHHG LQ WKH HDUO\ HYROXWLRQ RI D VRODU V\VWHPRI³JDVLQWKHFHQWUDOSDUWRIWKHQHEXODZKRVHDQJXODUPRPHQWXP LV UHODWLYHO\ ORZ´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU VSHHG RI ELUGV PLJUDWLQJZKHQWKH\DUHGLVWXUEHGE\VWURQJZLQGLQWKHRSSRVLWHGLUHFWLRQ RU ³EORZQ RII FRXUVH E\ WKH ZLQG´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU VSHHG RI HPLJUDWLRQ ZKHQ ³RQO\ PLOOLRQ PLJUDWLRQV ZHVWZDUG EHWZHHQ DQG ´ IURP WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU VSHHG RI SHRSOH ³IURP WKH $VLD±3DFLILF 7ULDQJOH´ WR LPPLJUDWH WR WKH 86 XQGHU WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI LQ 6HF WKHUHODWLYHO\VORZHUVSHHGRIWKH ³ILUVW JHQHUDWLRQ´LPPLJUDQWVWR PDNH SURJUHVV LQ ³ODQJXDJH DVVLPLODWLRQ´ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH WKUHHJHQHUDWLRQ PRGHOLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\VORZHUVSHHGRI*HUPDQLFDUWWRVSUHDG LQVLGH WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH ZKHQ ³WKH (PSLUH UHDFKHG LWV JUHDWHVW H[WHQW XQGHU(PSHURU7UDMDQ«GXULQJKLVUHLJQ>WR$'@LQ6HFWKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU VSHHG RI (DVW *HUPDQV WR LPPLJUDWH WR :HVW *HUPDQ\ DIWHU WKH %HUOLQ :DOO ZDV EXLOW WR SUHYHQW EUDLQ GUDLQ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\VORZHUVSHHGIRUDQLQGLYLGLXDOWRHPLJUDWHLIOLYLQJLQDUHDVWKDW KDYH D YHU\ ORZ OHYHO RI HFRQRPLF LQHTXDOLW\ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQWKHRU\LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\VORZHUVSHHGRISHRSOHWR PLJUDWHZKHQWKH\DUHRQO\³IRUFHGWROHDYHGXHWRDVORZGHWHULRUDWLRQRI WKHLUHQYLURQPHQWVXFKDVGHIRUHVWDWLRQFRDVWDOGHWHULRUDWLRQHWF´LQ6HF WKHUHODWLYHO\VORZHU VSHHGRIVHHGGLVSHUVDOE\ KXPDQV ³RQ VKRHV >XSWRNP@LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\VORZHUUHDGLQHVVRI8QLWHG6WDWHV FLWL]HQVRI(QJOLVKDQFHVWU\WREHVHQWWRLQWHUQPHQWFDPSVGXULQJ::,, LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ VORZHU VSHHG RI LQWHUJDODFWLF WUDYHO LI XQGHUVWRRG ZLWKLQ ³FXUUHQW SK\VLFV´ ZKLFK ³VWDWHV WKDW DQ REMHFW ZLWKLQ VSDFHWLPHFDQQRWH[FHHGWKHVSHHGRIOLJKW´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\ VORZHUUHDGLQHVVDFFRUGLQJWR)UDQN6DOWHURI³PXOWLHWKQLFVRFLHWLHV«WR FRRSHUDWHWRGHYHORSSXEOLFLQIUDVWUXFWXUH´LQ6HFDQGWKHUHODWLYHO\ VORZHUVSHHGRIDGLVVHQWHUWREHSHUVHFXWHG³IRUKHUHV\DQGEODVSKHP\´LI KHHQJDJHGLQ³DSXEOLFGLVDJUHHPHQWRQVHFRQGDU\PDWWHUV´LQ3URWHVWDQW (QJODQGGXULQJWKHUHLJQRI(OL]DEHWK,LQ6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV TXLFNQHVV HJ WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHG RI D FHOO PRYHPHQW ZKHQ ³WLPHODSVH ILOPV DUH WDNHQ VR WKDW D VSHHGHGXSPRYLHFDQEHYLHZHG´WRVHHWKDWWKHFHOOPRYHVPRUHTXLFNO\ LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\TXLFNHUUDWHRIPXWDWLRQWRRFFXULIWKH'1$
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
UHSDLU PHFKDQLVPV GR QRW ZRUN SURSHUO\ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHUVSHHGLQWKHHYROXWLRQRIDVRODUV\VWHPRI³JDVLQWKHFHQWUDOSDUW RI WKH QHEXOD´ ZKHQ LW ³XQGHUJRHV IDVW FRPSUHVVLRQ DQG IRUPV D KRW K\GURVWDWLF«FRUH´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHG RI ELUGV PLJUDWLQJ ZKHQWKH\ DUHKHOSHGE\VWURQJ ZLQGLQWKHVDPHGLUHFWLRQLQ 6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\TXLFNHUVSHHGRIHPLJUDWLRQZKHQEHWZHHQ ³RYHU PLOOLRQ LPPLJUDQWV HPLJUDWHG IURP 6RYLHWRFFXSLHG HDVWHUQ (XURSHDQFRXQWULHVWRWKH:HVW´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\TXLFNHUVSHHG RISHRSOH³IURPWKH$VLD±3DFLILF7ULDQJOH´WRLPPLJUDWHWRWKH86XQGHU WKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRILQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\TXLFNHUVSHHGRI WKH ³WKLUG JHQHUDWLRQ´ LPPLJUDQWV WR PDNH SURJUHVV LQ ³ODQJXDJH DVVLPLODWLRQ´ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH WKUHHJHQHUDWLRQ PRGHO LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHG RI *HUPDQLF DUW WR VSUHDG LQVLGH WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH GXULQJ WKH 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHGRI(DVW*HUPDQVWRLPPLJUDWHWR:HVW*HUPDQ\EHIRUHWKH%HUOLQ :DOO ZDV EXLOW ULJKW DIWHU ::,, LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHGIRUDQLQGLYLGLXDOWRHPLJUDWHLIOLYLQJLQDUHDVWKDWKDYHDYHU\KLJK OHYHORIHFRQRPLFLQHTXDOLW\DFFRUGLQJWRWKHUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQWKHRU\ LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\TXLFNHUVSHHGRI³SHRSOH«>WR@IOHHWHPSRUDULO\ GXH WR DQ HQYLURQPHQWDO GLVDVWHU RU VXGGHQ HQYLURQPHQWDO HYHQW«([DPSOHV VRPHRQH IRUFHG WR OHDYH GXH WR KXUULFDQH WVXQDPL HDUWKTXDNH HWF´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHG RI VHHG GLVSHUVDOE\KXPDQV³E\FDUV>UHJXODUO\aPVLQJOHVFDVHV!NP@´ LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\TXLFNHUUHDGLQHVVRI³8QLWHG6WDWHVFLWL]HQVRI -DSDQHVH*HUPDQDQG,WDOLDQDQFHVWU\LQFOXGLQJVRPHERUQLQWKH86´ WREHVHQWWRLQWHUQPHQWFDPSVGXULQJ::,,LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHU VSHHG RI LQWHUJDODFWLF WUDYHO LI XQGHUVWRRG LQ UHODWLRQ WR ³WKH $OFXELHUUH GULYH´ ZKLFK ³LV WKH RQO\ IHDVLEOH FRQFHSW KLJKO\ K\SRWKHWLFDOWKDWH[LVWVQRZDGD\VDQGWKDWLVDEOHWRLPSXOVHDVSDFHFUDIW WRVSHHGVIDVWHUWKDQOLJKW´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\TXLFNHUUHDGLQHVV DFFRUGLQJ WR )UDQN 6DOWHU RI ³UHODWLYHO\ KRPRJHQHRXV VRFLHWLHV«WR FRRSHUDWHWRGHYHORSSXEOLFLQIUDVWUXFWXUH´LQ6HFDQGWKHUHODWLYHO\ TXLFNHUVSHHGIRUDGLVVHQWHUWREHSHUVHFXWHG³IRUKHUHV\DQGEODVSKHP\´ LI KH HQJDJHG LQ ³D SXEOLF UHQRXQFHPHQW RI FRUH HOHPHQWV RI D UHOLJLRXV GRFWULQH´ LQ 3URWHVWDQW (QJODQG GXULQJ WKH UHLJQ RI (OL]DEHWK , LQ 6HF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $JDLQLWVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHG KRZHYHUWKDWWKHUHDUHGLIIHUHQWVKDGHV RI JUD\ RU GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI WUXWK LQ WKH WZR RSSRVLWHV DQG WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH HLWKHU ,Q IDFW HYHQ
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
ZKHQVRPHFRPELQDWLRQVRIWKHWZRRFFXUWKH\RQO\HQG XSVKDULQJWKH VDPHGLDOHFWLFUHODWLRQVKLSEXWLQDGLIIHUHQWGHJUHH $OVR WKHUH DUH VRPH RWKHU UHODWLRQVKLSV DV D NLQG RI IDPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH ZKLFK KDYH VRPHWKLQJ LQ FRPPRQ ZLWK WKH SULQFLSOH EXW WKH\ DUH QRW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EXW RQO\ PRUH RU OHVV FRPSDUDEOH ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH *RRGH[DPSOHVRIIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHSULQFLSOHDUH LQFRQYHQLHQFHFRQYHQLHQFH SDVVLYHQHVVDFWLYHQHVVQHVV JUDGXDOQHVV DEUXSWQHVVGHFHOHUDWLRQDFFHOHUDWLRQGLIILFXOW\HDVHDQGWKHOLNH
WK7KHVLV7KH([SDQVLRQ&RQWUDFWLRQ3ULQFLSOH 7KHILIWHHQWKWKHVLVLVFDOOHGWKHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOHLQWKH FDWHJRU\RI³SURFHVV´LQH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVLQWKDWHQWLWLHVLQWKHZRUOG FDQERWKH[SDQGLQVRPHZD\VDQGFRQWUDFWLQRWKHURQHVDVSDUWRIWKHLU QDWXUH7KHUHLVQRH[SDQVLRQZLWKRXWFRQWUDFWLRQ²DQGYLFHYHUVD 7KLVSULQFLSOHDOWKRXJK QRWVRH[SOLFLWO\FDOOHG ZDVDOUHDG\ XVHGLQ P\ SUHYLRXV ZRUNV RQ GLIIHUHQW WRSLFV HJ WKH WKHRU\ RI IORDWLQJ FRQVFLRXVQHVVLQ)&'DQG)3+&WKHXQLRQRIWKHXQLRQVLQ%:7DQGWKH F\FOLFDOSURJUHVVLRQRIV\VWHPIUDJPHQWDWLRQDQGLQWHJUDWLRQLQ)&' )RU LQVWDQFH RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKHUH LV H[SDQVLRQ HJ FHOOV ³VRPHWLPHV VSUHDG«IRUZDUG´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH LQFUHDVH RI IXQFWLRQDOJHQHVLIPXWDWLRQVVXFFHHGLQSURGXFLQJ³QHZIXOO\IXQFWLRQDO JHQHV´ LQ 6HF LQ WKH HYROXWLRQ RI D VRODU V\VWHP ³WKH FRUH JUDGXDOO\ JURZV LQ PDVV XQWLO LW EHFRPHV D \RXQJ KRW SURWRVWDU´ LQ 6HF WKHUHODWLYHH[SDQVLRQRIWKHUDQJHRIELUGVIO\LQJWRJHWKHUDVVKRZQ LQWKHH[DPSOHRI ³WKH3DVVHQJHU3LJHRQ>(FWRSLVWHV PLJUDWRULXV@´ ZKHQ ³GXULQJ PLJUDWLRQ WKH IORFNV ZHUH D PLOH > NP@ ZLGH DQG PLOHV >NP@ORQJWDNLQJVHYHUDOGD\VWRSDVVDQGFRQWDLQLQJXSWRDELOOLRQ ELUGV´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH H[SDQVLRQ RI HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV GXULQJ WKH &ROG :DU VD\ LQ WKH V DQG V LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHH[SDQVLRQRIWKHQXPEHURI1RUWKZHVWHUQ(XURSHDQLPPLJUDQWVWR WKH 86 XQGHU WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH H[SDQVLRQ RI WKH FDVHV RI ³LQWHUPDUULDJH«DIWHU WKH V DV -HZV«DV ZHOO DV RWKHU W\SLFDOO\ HQGRJDPLF FXOWXUHV VXFK DV $IULFDQ $PHULFDQV«EHJDQ WR HQJDJH LQ PRUH H[RJDPLF UHODWLRQVKLSV´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH H[SDQVLRQ RI WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH ZKHQ ³WKH (PSLUH UHDFKHGLWVJUHDWHVWH[WHQWXQGHU(PSHURU7UDMDQ«GXULQJKLVUHLJQ>WR $'@LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHVSUHDGRIWKH+XJXHQRWVIURP)UDQFH LQWKHWKFHQWXU\WRWKHUHVWRIWKHZRUOGOLNH³(QJODQGWKH1HWKHUODQGV 6ZLW]HUODQG 1RUZD\ 'HQPDUN DQG 3UXVVLD´ ³WKH 'XWFK FRORQ\ DW WKH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
&DSH´ LQ 6RXWK $IULFD ³WKH QHZO\ HVWDEOLVKHG %ULWLVK FRORQLHV LQ 1RUWK $PHULFD´DQGVRRQLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHH[SDQVLRQRIDFLW\ZKHQLW ³SXOOV´DORWRILPPLJUDQWVLQEHFDXVHRILWVDELOLW\WRKDYHOLWWOHUHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH VSUHDG RI ³JOREDO PLJUDWLRQ«DV D UHVXOWRIDFFHOHUDWHGFOLPDWHFKDQJH´DFFRUGLQJWR,20LQ6HFWKH UHODWLYHH[SDQVLRQRIVHHGVSHFLHVDVLQWKHFDVHRI³LQYDVLYHVSHFLHV´LQ QHZ KDELWDWVLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHH[SDQVLRQRI WKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKH -HZLVKOREE\JURXSLQ$PHULFDLQWKHODVWIHZGHFDGHVRIWKHWKFHQWXU\ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH H[SDQVLRQ RI KXPDQ KDELWDWV LI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ LV FDUULHG RXW LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH VSUHDG RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP LQ ³PRVW PHPEHUVWDWHV RI WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ´ LQ WKH ODVWGHFDGHVRIWKHWKFHQWXU\LQ6HFDQGWKHUHODWLYHH[SDQVLRQRI (QJOLVKVHWWOHUVLQ$PHULFDLQWKHWKFHQWXU\HVSHFLDOO\DVPLJUDQWVIRU UHOLJLRXVIUHHGRPLQ6HF 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHUHLVFRQWUDFWLRQHJFHOOV³VRPHWLPHVUHWUDFW´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH GHFUHDVH RI IXQFWLRQDO JHQHV LI PXWDWLRQ ELDV OHDGVWR³WKHORVVRIIXQFWLRQ´RIJHQHVLQ6HFLQWKHHYROXWLRQRID VRODU V\VWHP ³JDV LQ WKH FHQWUDO SDUW RI WKH QHEXOD«XQGHUJRHV IDVW FRPSUHVVLRQDQGIRUPVDKRWK\GURVWDWLF«FRUHFRQWDLQLQJDVPDOOIUDFWLRQ RIWKHPDVVRIWKHRULJLQDOQHEXOD´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHGHFOLQHRIWKH UDQJH RI ELUGV IO\LQJ WRJWKHU ZKHQ WKLV ³FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI ELUGV GXULQJ PLJUDWLRQ FDQ SXW VSHFLHV DW ULVN´ VR WKDW WKH UDQJH FDQ VKULQN FRQVLGHUDEO\ E\ WKH WLPH WKH IORFNV UHDFK WKHLU GHVWLQDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKHUHODWLYHFRQWUDFWLRQRIHPLJUDWLRQUHVWULFWLRQVLQSRVW6RYLHW5XVVLDRI WRGD\LQLQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHGHFOLQHRIWKHQXPEHURI-HZLVK LPPLJUDQWVWRWKH86XQGHUWKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRILQ6HF WKH UHODWLYH GHFOLQH RI WKH FDVHV RI ³HQGRJDPLF UHODWLRQVKLSV´ DIWHU WKH V DPRQJ -HZV DQG $IULFDQ$PHULFDQV LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH GHFOLQH RI WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH ZKHQ ³WKH :HVWHUQ 5RPDQ (PSLUH FROODSVHG LQ DV 5RPXOXV $XJXVWXV ZDV IRUFHG WR DEGLFDWH WR WKH *HUPDQLFZDUORUG2GRDFHU´DQG³WKH(DVWHUQ5RPDQRU%\]DQWLQH(PSLUH HQGHG LQ ZLWK WKH GHDWK RI &RQVWDQWLQH ;, DQG WKH FDSWXUH RI &RQVWDQWLQRSOH E\ WKH 2WWRPDQ 7XUNV OHG E\ 0HKPHG ,,´ LQ 6HF WKHUHODWLYHGHFOLQHRIWKH+XJXHQRWVLQ)UDQFHLQWKHWKFHQWXU\ ZKHQ ³/RXLV;,9UHYRNHGWKH(GLFWRI1DQWHVDQGGHFODUHG3URWHVWDQWLVPWREH LOOHJDOLQWKH(GLFWRI)RQWDLQHEOHDX´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHGHFOLQHRI DFLW\ZKHQLW³SXVKHV´DORWRIHPLJUDQWVRXWEHFDXVHRIVHYHUHUHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH GHFOLQH RI ³DUDEOH ODQG´ GXH WR LWV ³GHVWUXFWLRQ´ E\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH OLNH WKH FDVH LQ ³WKH %DQJODGHVK,QGLD ERUGHU´ DFFRUGLQJ WR ,20 LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH GHFOLQH RI VHHG VSHFLHVDVLQWKHFDVHRIWKH³VSHFLHVLQWKH$VWHUDFHDHRQLVODQGV´ZKLFK
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
³WHQGHG WR KDYH UHGXFHG GLVSHUVDO FDSDELOLWLHV >LH ODUJHU VHHG PDVV DQG VPDOOHU SDSSXV@ UHODWLYH WR WKH VDPH VSHFLHV RQ WKH PDLQODQG´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH IDOO RU XQGHUGHYHORSPHQW RI WKH $UDE$PHULFDQ OREE\ JURXS ZKHQ ³WKH YLROHQFH VSRQVRUHG E\ WKH 3DOHVWLQLDQ QDWLRQDOLVW PRYHPHQWRYHUPDQ\\HDUVDQG$UDEVWDWH HQGRUVHPHQWRIWKDWYLROHQFH VHYHUHO\ KDPSHUHG WKH DELOLW\ RI $UDE$PHULFDQV JHQHUDO«DQG 3DOHVWLQLDQ$PHULFDQ PRUH SDUWLFXODUO\«WR LQWHJUDWH WKHPVHOYHV LQWR $PHULFDQ HOHFWRUDO SROLWLFV´ LQ WKH QG KDOI RI WKH WK FHQWXU\ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYH GHFOLQH RI KXPDQ KDELWDWV ZLWKRXW VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ ZKHQDV+DZNLQJRQFHZDUQHGXV³VRRQHURUODWHUGLVDVWHUVVXFKDVDQ DVWHURLGFROOLVLRQRUQXFOHDUZDUFRXOGZLSHXVDOORXW´LQ6HFWKH UHODWLYH GHFOLQH RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP LQ ³PRVW PHPEHUVWDWHV RI WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ´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
WK7KHVLV7KH7KHRU\3UD[LV3ULQFLSOH
7KH VL[WHHQWK WKHVLV LV WKH WKHRU\SUD[LV SULQFLSOH RQ WKH GXDOLW\ RI NQRZOHGJH LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³DJHQF\´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV ZKLFK ZDVILUVWZRUNHGRXWLQ)3+( LQWKDWLIWKHUHLVWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVWUXFWLRQ WKHUH LV OLNHZLVH LWV SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ ERWK WHFKQLFDO DQG QRUPDWLYH 7KHUHLVQRWKHRU\ZLWKRXWSUD[LV²DQGYLFHYHUVD )RU LQVWDQFH RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKHUH LV WKHRU\ HJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³FHOO PRYHPHQW´ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ´ LQ 6HF WKHWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVWUXFWLRQRI0HQGHOLDQJHQHWLFVLQ6HFWKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH 6RODU 1HEXODU 'LVN 0RGHO RU 61'0 E\ 9LFWRU 6DIURQRY ZKLFK LV ³WKH PRVW ZLGHO\ DFFHSWHG PRGHUQ YDULDQW RI
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV´ IRU WKH H[SODQDWLRQ RI RXU VRODU V\VWHP LQ 6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH QHJDWLYH LPSDFW RI ³KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV´RQELUGPLJUDWLRQOLNH³WKUHDWVDQGFRQVHUYDWLRQ´LQ6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH ³&RPPXQLVWP´ LQ IXVLQJ HFRQRPLFV ZLWK SROLWLFV LQ 6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³WKH UDFLDO K\JLHQH WKHRU\´ E\ 0DGLVRQ *UDQW LQ 6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³WKH PHOWLQJ SRW´ E\ SHRSOH OLNH 5DOSK (PHUVRQ ,VUDHO =DQJZLOO HWF LQ 6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI &KULVWLDQ WKHRORJ\ LQ 6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³FDSLWDO IOLJKW´ LQ HFRQRPLFV LQ 6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LQ SV\FKRORJ\ DQG ELRORJ\ LQ 6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQRI³HQYLURQPHQWDOGHJUDGDWLRQ´LQWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQLQ 6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV IRU GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH LQ VHHG GLVSHUVDO LQ 6HF WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³WUDQVQDWLRQDOLVP´ LQ PXOWLFXOWXUDO VWXGLHV LQ 6HF WKHWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVWUXFWLRQRI³ZRUPKROHVDQGK\SHUVSDFH´LQSK\VLFVLQ 6HFWKHWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVWUXFWLRQRI³PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP´DV³SDUWRIWKH SUDJPDWLVPPRYHPHQWDWWKHHQGRIWKHQLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\LQ(XURSHDQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV´ LQ 6HF DQG WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ³WKH HFFOHVLDVWLFDO LQWROHUDQFH´ DV XQGHUVWRRG E\ WKRVH LQ WKH HDUO\ &KULVWLDQ FKXUFKRQWKHEDVLVRI³WKH1HZ7HVWDPHQW´DFFRUGLQJWR-RVHSK+DOOLQ 6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV SUD[LV HJ WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³FHOO PRYHPHQW´ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ WR WKH ILHOG RI WKHUDS\ EHFDXVH³DQXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHPHFKDQLVPE\ZKLFKFHOOVPLJUDWHPD\ OHDGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIQRYHOWKHUDSHXWLFVWUDWHJLHVIRUFRQWUROOLQJIRU H[DPSOHLQYDVLYHWXPRXUFHOOV´LQ6HFWKHSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRI 0HQGHOLDQ JHQHWLFV WR WKH ILHOG RI SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFV ZKHQ ³)LVKHU +DOGDQH DQG :ULJKW«LQWHJUDWHG QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ ZLWK 0HQGHOLDQ JHQHWLFVZKLFKZDVWKHFULWLFDOILUVWVWHSLQGHYHORSLQJDXQLILHGWKHRU\RI HYROXWLRQ´LQ6HFWKHSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRI61'0WRWKHILHOGRI WKH HQWLUH XQLYHUVH QRW MXVW RXU VRODU V\VWHP EHFDXVH ³WKH 61'0 ZDV VXEVHTXHQWO\ WKRXJKW E\ WKHRULVWV WR EH DW ZRUN WKURXJKRXW WKH XQLYHUVH RYHUH[WUDVRODUSODQHWVKDYHVLQFHEHHQGLVFRYHUHGLQRXUJDOD[\´LQ 6HFWKHSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKH QHJDWLYHLPSDFWRI³KXPDQDFWLYLWLHV´RQELUGPLJUDWLRQOLNH³WKUHDWVDQG FRQVHUYDWLRQ´ WR WKH ILHOG RI FRQVHUYDWLRQ PRYHPHQW OLNH WKH SDVVLQJ RI ³WKH 0LJUDWRU\ %LUG 7UHDW\ $FW RI RI WKH 86 DQG WKH $IULFDQ (XUDVLDQ 0LJUDWRU\ :DWHUELUG $JUHHPHQW´ LQ 6HF WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³&RPPXQLVP´ WR WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF HVSHFLDOO\ GXULQJ WKH &ROG :DU IRU HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV LQ 6HF WKH SUDFWLFDO
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³WKH UDFLDO K\JLHQH WKHRU\´ WR WKH ILHOG RI LPPLJUDWLRQ SROLWLFVOLNHWKHSDVVLQJRIWKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRILQ6HFWKH SUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRI³WKHPHOWLQJSRWWKHRU\´WRWKHILHOGRILPPLJUDQW SROLWLFVDVVKRZQLQWKHFDOOIRULPPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQLQ6HFWKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI &KULVWLDQ WKHRORJ\ WR WKH ILHOG RI SROLWLFV ZKHQ GLIIHUHQW *HUPDQLF WULEHV ZHUH FRQYHUWHG LQWR FODVVLFDO FLYLOL]DWLRQ E\ ³&KULVWLDQL]DWLRQ´ XQGHU WKH JXLGDQFH RI WKH 5RPDQ &DWKROLF &KXUFK E\ WKHWKFHQWXU\LQ6HFWKHSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRI³FDSLWDOIOLJKW´LQ HFRQRPLFVWRWKHILHOGRIPLJUDWLRQOLNH³KXPDQFDSWLDOIOLJKW´WRUHIHUWR ³EUDLQ GUDLQ´ LQ 6HF WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´LQSV\FKRORJ\DQGELRORJ\WRWKHILHOGRIVRFLRORJ\OLNHWKH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKHRU\ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³HQYLURQPHQWDO GHJUDGDWLRQ´ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ WR WKH ILHOG RI SROLWLFV DQG ODZ OLNH WKH (QYLURQPHQWDO -XVWLFH )RXQGDWLRQ ZKLFK KDG FDPSDLJQHG IRU ³D QHZ PXOWLODWHUDO OHJDO LQVWUXPHQW«WRVSHFLILFDOO\DGGUHVVWKHQHHGVRI FOLPDWHUHIXJHHV ´LQ6HF WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV WR GLIIHUHQW WHVWV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH ZRUNV E\ 7 %XUNH\ >@ DQG / +\DWW >@ IRU H[DPSOH LQ 6HF WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³WUDQVQDWLRQDOLVP´ WR WKH ILHOG RI GLDVSRUD SROLWLFV VXFK WKDW ³WKH WHUP
GXDOOR\DOW\ LQFUHDVLQJO\EHFRPHVDPHDQLQJOHVVEURPLGH´LQ6HF WKHSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRI³ZRUPKROHVDQGK\SHUVSDFH´LQSK\VLFVWRWKH ILHOG RI ³LQWHUJDODFWLF WUDYHO´ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP´ WR WKH ILHOG RI SROLWLFV OLNH LWV LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ LQ WKH (8 LQ WKH ODVW GHFDGHV RI WKH WK FHQWXU\ LQ 6HF DQG WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ³WKH HFFOHVLDVWLFDO LQWROHUDQFH´ DV XQGHUVWRRG E\ WKRVH LQ WKH HDUO\ &KULVWLDQ FKXUFK RQ WKH EDVLVRI³WKH1HZ7HVWDPHQW´WRWKHILHOGRI³WKHFLYLOLQWROHUDQFHRIWKH &KULVWLDQVWDWH´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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
LQWHQWLRQDOLW\ GLVFRXUVHDFWLRQ NQRZOHGJHLQWHUHVW PRWLYDWLRQXQLYHUVDOLW\SDUWLFXODULW\DQGVRIRUWK
NQRZOHGJH
WK7KHVLV7KH&RQYHQWLRQ1RYHOW\3ULQFLSOH
7KH VHYHQWHHQWK WKHVLV LV WKH FRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\ SULQFLSOH RQ WKH QDWXUH RI FUHDWLYH WKLQNLQJ LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³DJHQF\´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV ZKLFK ZDV ILUVW ZRUNHG RXW LQ )3+&7 LQ WKDW LI WKHUH LV FRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPWKHUHLVOLNHZLVHQRYHOFKDOOHQJHWRWKHH[WHQWWKDW ERWK FRQYHUJHQW DQG GLYHUJHQW WKLQNLQJ DUH SDUW RI OLIH 7KHUH LV QR FRQYHQWLRQZLWKRXWQRYHOW\²DQGYLFHYHUVD $V VUXPPDUL]HG IURP )3+&7 DOPRVW YHUEDWLP KHUH WKHUH DUH D ³FUHDWLYH WHFKQLTXHV´ DQG E ³FUHDWLYH WUDLWV´ ZKLFK ZKHQ VDWLVILHG²LQ UHODWLRQWRWKHODUJHUFRQWH[WRIWKHPLQGQDWXUHVRFLHW\DQGFXOWXUH²FDQ EHXVHGWRHQKDQFHFUHDWLYHZRUNV ,Q DGGLWLRQ FUHDWLYH WKLQNLQJ KDV LWV RZQ SRVVLELOLWLHV DQG OLPLWV LQ UHODWLRQ WR LQYHQWLRQ MXVW DV LW KDV LWV RZQ SURPLVHV DQG SLWIDOOV LQ UHODWLRQ WR LQQRYDWLRQ ²DV DOUHDG\ DQDO\]HG LQ )3+&7 %11 DQG )3+0,* ,QWKHHQGFUHDWLYHWKLQNLQJKDVLWVRZQGHVLUDELOLW\DQGGDUNVLGHVDV DOVRDOUHDG\DQDO\]HGLQ)3+&7%11DQG)3+0,* :LWKWKHVHFODULILFDWLRQVLQPLQG²WKHUHDUHJRRGHPSLULFDOH[DPSOHV IRUWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFSOH )RU LQVWDQFH RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKHUH LV FRQYHQWLRQ HJ WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW FHOO PRYHPHQW RQ WKH EDVLV RI ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDO PRGHO´ DQG ³WKH PHPEUDQH IORZ PRGHO´ LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPRI³ILHOGQDWXUDOLVWV´LQWKHHDUO\WKFHQWXU\ZKHQ WKH\ EHOLHYHG WKDW ³/DPDUFNLDQ DQG RUWKRJHQLF PHFKDQLVPV RI HYROXWLRQ SURYLGHG WKH EHVW H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH FRPSOH[LW\ WKH\ REVHUYHG LQ WKH OLYLQJ ZRUOG´ LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP RI ³WKH /DSODFLDQ QHEXODU PRGHO´ IRU WKH H[SODQDWLRQ RI WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI WK VRODU V\VWHP ZKLFK ³GRPLQDWHG LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\´ LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP LQ DQWLTXLW\ WKDW ³VZDOORZV DQG RWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´ LQ 6HF WKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPRI³PDUNHWHFRQRPLFV´LQWKH:HVWLQWKH WK FHQWXU\ LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW ³D GLVWLQFW $PHULFDQ LGHQWLW\ E\ IDYRULQJ QDWLYHERUQ $PHULFDQV RYHU 6RXWKHUQ DQG (DVWHUQ(XURSHDQV´LQWKHROGHUGD\VXQGHUWKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRI LQ6HFWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPDERXW³WKHPHOWLQJSRW´LQWKHWK DQGWKFHQWXU\LQ6HFWKHFRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRPDERXW*HUPDQLF DUW GXULQJ WKH 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW³EUDLQJDLQ´WRZHOFRPHVNLOOHGLPPLJUDQWVWRKRVWFRXQWULHVLQ6HF
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
WKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPDERXWWKHFRQFHSWRI³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´ DV D EDVLV WR XQGHUVWDQG ³VRFLDO GHYLDQFH´ E\ 5REHUW . 0HUWRQ LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW HQYLURQPHQWDO UHIXJHHV DQG PLJUDQWVE\VRPHRQHOLNH1RUPDQ0\HUVLQ6HFWKHFRQYHQWLRQDO YLHZ DERXW WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV IRU GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH LQ VHHG GLVSHUVDO LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW ³GXDO OR\DOW\´ LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP RI ³FXUUHQW SK\VLFV´ ZKLFK³VWDWHVWKDWDQREMHFWZLWKLQVSDFHWLPHFDQQRWH[FHHGWKHVSHHGRI OLJKW´ LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP RI DVVLPLODWLRQLVP LQ WKH WK DQG WK FHQWXULHV IRU H[DPSOH LQ 6HF DQG WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRPDERXW³UHOLJLRXVXQLIRUPLW\´E\5LFKDUG+RRNHULQ6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV QRYHOW\ HJ WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJHWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPDERXWFHOOPRYHPHQWRQWKHEDVLVRI ³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´DQG³WKHPHPEUDQHIORZPRGHO´E\WKHQHZLGHD RI ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´ E\ 3XUFHOO LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJHWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPRIWKHVH³ILHOGQDWXUDOLVWV´LQUHJDUG WR ³/DPDUFNLDQ DQG RUWKRJHQLF PHFKDQLVPV´ E\ WKH QHZ LGHD RI SRSXODWLRQ JHQHWLFV QRZDGD\V ZLWK WKH V\QWKHVLV RI ³QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ´ ZLWK³0HQGHOLDQJHQHWLFV´LQ6HFWKHDOWHUQDWLYHQRYHOFKDOOHQJHWR WKHFRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRPDERXWWKH/DSODFLDQ QHEXODU PRGHOE\WKH QHZ LGHD RI 61'0 LQ ODWH WK FHQWXU\ ZKLFK EHFRPHV ³WKH PRVW ZLGHO\ DFFHSWHG PRGHUQ YDULDQW RI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV´ QRZDGD\V LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP LQ DQWLTXLW\ WKDW ³VZDOORZV DQG RWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´ E\ WKH QHZ LGHD LQ PRGHUQ WLPHV WKDW ³PLJUDWLRQ´ LV LQ IDFW ³DQ H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH ZLQWHU GLVDSSHDUDQFHRIELUGVIURPQRUWKHUQFOLPHV´LQ6HFWKHDOWHUQDWLYH QRYHOFKDOOHQJHWRWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPRI³PDUNHWHFRQRPLFV´LQWKH :HVW E\ WKH QHZ LGHD RI ³6RYLHW FRPPDQG HFRQRPLHV´ GXULQJ WKH &ROG :DU LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW ³D GLVWLQFW $PHULFDQ LGHQWLW\ E\ IDYRULQJ QDWLYHERUQ $PHULFDQVRYHU6RXWKHUQDQG(DVWHUQ(XURSHDQV´LQWKHROGHUGD\VE\WKH QHZ LGHD RI ³PXOWLFXOWXUDO LGHQWLW\´ QRZDGD\V ZKLFK FRQWULEXWHV WR WKH RSHQLQJ RI ³WKH GRRUV WR LPPLJUDQWV IURP 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ (XURSH /DWLQ $PHULFD DQG $VLD´ LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPDERXW³WKHPHOWLQJSRW´LQWKHWKDQGWKFHQWXU\ E\WKHQHZLGHDRI³PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP´LQODWHWKDQGHDUO\VWFHQWXU\LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW *HUPDQLF DUW GXULQJ WKH 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG E\ WKH QHZ LGHD RI WKH 5RPDQ &DWKROLF &KXUFKWRFRQYHUW WKH ³*HUPDQLFSHRSOHVE\WKHHQGRI WKHWKFHQWXULHVLQZHVWHUQ(XURSH´ZKLFKWKHQOHGWR³DVWHDG\GHFOLQH LQ*HUPDQLFIRUPV´DQGWKHLQFUHDVHRI³0HGLWHUUDQHDQLQIOXHQFH´LQ6HF
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW ³EUDLQJDLQ´WRZHOFRPHVNLOOHGLPPLJUDQWVWRKRVWFRXQWULHVE\WKHQHZ LGHDRIVRPHFULWLFVOLNH)UHQFK3UHVLGHQW1LFRODV6DUNR]\ZKRVDLGWKDW ³LI\RXFRPHWR)UDQFH\RXDFFHSWWRPHOWLQWRDVLQJOHFRPPXQLW\ZKLFK LV WKH QDWLRQDO FRPPXQLW\ DQG LI \RX GR QRW ZDQW WR DFFHSW WKDW \RX FDQQRW EH ZHOFRPH LQ )UDQFH´ LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW WKH FRQFHSW RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´DVDEDVLVWRXQGHUVWDQG³VRFLDOGHYLDQFH´E\WKHQHZLGHDRI XVLQJ WKH FRQFHSW RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ IRU WKH UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ WKHRU\ WR VWXG\ WKH QDWXUH RI PLJUDWLRQ LQVWHDG LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW HQYLURQPHQWDOUHIXJHHVDQG PLJUDQWVE\WKHQHZFULWLFDO LGHDRI9LNUDP .ROPDQQVNRJ ZKR ³KDV VWDWHG WKDW 0\HUV¶ ZRUN FDQ EH FULWLFL]HG IRU EHLQJLQFRQVLVWHQWLPSRVVLEOHWRFKHFNDQGIDLOLQJWRWDNHSURSHUDFFRXQW LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO YLHZ DERXWWKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVE\WKHQHZ LGHDRI ³DVWXG\ E\ %XUNH\´ ZKLFK ³IRXQG WKDW VHHG SUHGDWLRQ GLG QRW IROORZ D SDWWHUQ VXSSRUWLQJ WKDW RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV DORQJ D PHDQLQJIXO VFDOH´ LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRPDERXW³GXDOOR\DOW\´E\WKHQHZLGHDRI³WUDQVQDWLRQDOLVP´VXFK WKDW³WKHWHUP GXDOOR\DOW\ LQFUHDVLQJO\EHFRPHVDPHDQLQJOHVVEURPLGH´ LQ6HFWKHDOWHUQDWLYH QRYHOFKDOOHQJHWR WKHFRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP RI³FXUUHQWSK\VLFV´ZKLFK³VWDWHVWKDWDQREMHFWZLWKLQVSDFHWLPHFDQQRW H[FHHG WKH VSHHG RI OLJKW´ E\ WKH QHZ LGHD RI ³WKH $OFXELHUUH GULYH´ ZKLFK ³LV WKH RQO\ IHDVLEOH FRQFHSW KLJKO\ K\SRWKHWLFDO WKDW H[LVWV QRZDGD\V DQG WKDW LV DEOH WR LPSXOVH D VSDFHFUDIW WR VSHHGV IDVWHU WKDQ OLJKW´ LQ 6HF WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW DVVLPLODWLRQLVP LQ WKH WK DQG WK FHQWXULHV E\ WKH QHZ LGHDRIPXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPLQWKHODVWIHZGHFDGHVRIWKHWKFHQWXU\LQ6HF DQG WKH DOWHUQDWLYH QRYHO FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO ZLVGRP DERXW³UHOLJLRXVXQLIRUPLW\´E\5LFKDUG+RRNHUE\WKHQHZLGHDRI-RKQ /RFNH LQ UHJDUG WR ³UHOLJLRXV YROXQWDULVP´ IRU ³WKH VHSDUDWLRQ RI FKXUFK DQGVWDWH´LQ6HF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $JDLQLWVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHG KRZHYHUWKDWWKHUHDUHGLIIHUHQWVKDGHV RI JUD\ RU GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI WUXWK LQ WKH WZR RSSRVLWHV DQG WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH HLWKHU ,Q IDFW HYHQ ZKHQVRPHFRPELQDWLRQVRIWKHWZRRFFXUWKH\RQO\HQG XSVKDULQJWKH VDPHGLDOHFWLFUHODWLRQVKLSEXWLQDGLIIHUHQWGHJUHH $OVR WKHUH DUH VRPH RWKHU UHODWLRQVKLSV DV D NLQG RI IDPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH ZKLFK KDYH VRPHWKLQJ LQ FRPPRQ ZLWK WKH SULQFLSOH EXW
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
WKH\ DUH QRW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EXW RQO\ PRUH RU OHVV FRPSDUDEOH ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH *RRGH[DPSOHVRIIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHSULQFLSOHDUH FRQYHUJHQFHGLYHUJHQFH RU FRQYHUJHQW WKLQNLQJ YV GLYHUJHQW WKLQNLQJ QRUPDOQHVVQRQQRUPDOQHVVFRQIRUPLW\QRQFRQIRUPLW\DQGVRRQ
WK7KHVLV7KH(YROXWLRQ7UDQVIRUPDWLRQ 3ULQFLSOH 7KHHLJKWHHQWKWKHVLVUHIHUVWRWKHHYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQSULQFLSOH RQ WKH PXOWLSOH NLQGV RI DJHQF\ LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³DJHQF\´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVZKLFKZDVILUVWZRUNHGRXWLQ)$(DQGWKHQLQRWKHU ERRNVRIPLQH 7KLV SULQFLSOH²DQG WKH V\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\ SULQFLSOH IRU LQVWDQFH²DUHERWKDERXWDJHQF\0RUHSUHFLVHO\WKHZRUG³DJHQF\´LQD IRUPDO GHILQLWLRQ UHIHUV WR ³D SHUVRQ RU WKLQJ WKURXJK ZKLFK SRZHU LV H[HUWHGRUDQHQGLVDFKLHYHG´0:' ,WWKHUHIRUHGRHVQRWKDYHWR QHFHVVDULO\LQYROYHDQLQWHOOLJHQWOLIHIRUP %HFDXVHRIWKLVGXDOPHDQLQJLQDJHQF\WKHHYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULQFLSOHLVPRUHFRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHNLQGRIDJHQF\WKDWLVERWKDERXWWKH HYROXWLRQLQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHHJDQREMHFWRIQDWXUDOEHDXW\ DQGWKH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH ZRUOG RI LQWHOOLJHQW OLIHIRUPV HJ D ZRUN RI DUW 7KHUHLVQRHYROXWLRQZLWKRXWWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ²DQGYLFHYHUVD ,Q FODVVLFDO 'DUZLQLDQ HYROXWLRQDU\ WKHRU\ DV PRUH GHWDLOHGO\ DQDO\]HG LQ %11 HYROXWLRQ LV ³EOLQG´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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
ELUGPLJUDWLRQLQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHLQDSULPLWLYHZD\LQ6HFWKH QDWXUDOHYROXWLRQRIKXPDQVWRPRYHDURXQGLQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHDOEHLWLQ D SULPLWLYH ZD\ LQ 6HF WKH QDWXUDO HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQV WR UHODWH ZLWK RWKHUV LQ EDQGV WULEHV HWF LQ WKH VWDWH RI QDWXUH LQ 6HF WKH QDWXUDO HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQV WR OLYH LQ GLIIHUHQW FODQV WULEHV HWF LQ WKH VWDWHRIQDWXUHLQ6HFWKHQDWXUDOHYROXWLRQRIKXPDQVWRHQFRXQWHU DQLPDOVLQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHDOEHLWLQDSULPLWLYHZD\LQ6HFWKH QDWXUDOHYROXWLRQRIKXPDQVWRPRYHDURXQGLQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHDOEHLWLQ D SULPLWLYH ZD\ LQ 6HF WKH QDWXUDO HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQV WR HQFRXQWHUGHSULYDWLRQIURPWLPHWRWLPHLQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHDOEHLWLQD SULPLWLYHZD\LQ6HFWKHQDWXUDOHYROXWLRQRIKXPDQVWRIOHHIURP QDWXUDOGLVDVWHUVLQWKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHLQ6HFWKHQDWXUDOHYROXWLRQ RI VHHGV WR EH GLVSHUVHG LQ WKH VWDWH RI QDWXUH LQ 6HF WKH QDWXUDO HYROXWLRQRIKXPDQVWROLYHLQGLIIHUHQWJURXSVOLNHDWULEHDFODQHWFLQ WKHVWDWHRIQDWXUHLQ6HFWKHQDWXUDOHYROXWLRQRIKXPDQVWROLYH RQ(DUWKLQ6HFWKHQDWXUDOHYROXWLRQRIKXPDQVWROLYHLQGLIIHUHQW WULEHV FODQV HWF LQ WKH VWDWH RI QDWXUH LQ D SULPLWLYH ZD\ LQ 6HF DQG WKH QDWXUDO HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQV WR OLYH LQ GLIIHUHQW JURXSV DQG ILJKW ZLWK HDFK RWKHU IURP WLPH WR WLPH LQ WKH VWDWH RI QDWXUH DOEHLW LQ D SULPLWLYHZD\LQ6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ HJ WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DELOLW\ WR H[SHULHQFH DQG XQGHUVWDQG PRYHPHQW E\ WKH LQYHQWLRQ RI WKH GLVFLSOLQH RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ IRU WKH VWXG\ RI ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´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³ELUG PLJUDWLRQ´ LQ D ZD\ WKDW ELUGV FDQQRW LQYHQW WKLV NLQG RI NQRZOHGJHLQ6HFWKHWHFKQLFDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIKXPDQDELOLW\WR PRYH DURXQG E\ WKH LQYHQWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW SROLFLHV ZKLFK FDQ EH IRU WKH IUHHGRP RI WUDYHO RU WKH EDQ RI WUDYHO LQ 6HF WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DELOLW\ WR UHODWH ZLWK RWKHUV E\ WKH LQYHQWLRQ RI V\VWHPDWLFLGHRORJ\OLNH³WKHUDFLDOK\JLHQHWKHRU\´E\0DGLVRQ*UDQWLQ 6HF WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DELOLW\ WR UHODWH ZLWK HDFKRWKHUE\WKHLQYHQWLRQRI ³WKH PHOWLQJSRWWKHRU\´LQ WKH HLJKWHHQWK DQG QLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\ ³WR GHVFULEH WKH IXVLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW QDWLRQDOLWLHV HWKQLFLWLHV DQG FXOWXUHV´ DV ³DQ LGHDO UHSXEOLF DQG D FLW\ XSRQ D KLOO RU
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
QHZSURPLVHGODQG´LQ6HFWKHWHFKQLFDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIKXPDQ DELOLW\WRHQFRXQWHUDQLPDOVE\WKHLQYHQWLRQRIDQLPDOVW\OHLQ*HUPDQLF DUW LQ 6HF WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DELOLW\ WR PRYH DURXQG E\ WKH LQYHQWLRQ RI ³EUDLQ GUDLQ´ DQG ³EUDLQ JDLQ´ QRZDGD\V LQ 6HF WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DELOLW\ WR GHDO ZLWK GHSULYDWLRQE\WKHLQYHQWLRQRIWKHUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQWKHRU\IRUWKHVWXG\ RIPLJUDWLRQLQ6HFWKHWHFKQLFDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIKXPDQDELOLW\WR FRSHZLWKQDWXUDOGLVDVWHUVE\WKHLQYHQWLRQRIWKHVWXG\RIHQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ IRU PRGHOLQJ DQG SUHGLFWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI VHHGV WR EH GLVSHUVHG LQ WKH VWDWH RI QDWXUH E\ WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQ RI KXPDQV OLNH VHHG GLVSHUVDO E\ KXPDQV LQ 6HF WKH WHFKQLFDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIKXPDQDELOLW\WROLYHLQGLIIHUHQWJURXSVE\WKH LQYHQWLRQ RI ³WUDQVQDWLRQDOLVP´ IRU ³VRFLHWLHV´ ZKLFK ³EHFRPH PRUH KHWHURJHQHRXV DQG PXOWLFXOWXUDO´ LQ 6HF WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DELOLW\ WR OLYH E\ WKH LQYHQWLRQ RI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ WR HPLJUDWH WR ORFDWLRQV RXWVLGH (DUWK LQ 6HF WKH WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DELOLW\ WR OLYH E\ WKH LQYHQWLRQ RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP VXFK WKDW WKH LGHDO LV WR SURYLGH ³D IDLUHU V\VWHP WKDW DOORZVSHRSOHWRWUXO\H[SUHVVZKRWKH\DUHZLWKLQDVRFLHW\WKDWLVPRUH WROHUDQW DQG WKDW DGDSWV EHWWHU WR VRFLDO LVVXHV´ LQ 6HF DQG WKH WHFKQLFDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIKXPDQDELOLW\WROLYHDQGILJKWZLWKHDFKRWKHU E\ WKH LQYHQWLRQ RI V\VWHPDWLF LGHRORJLFDO H[FXVHV OLNH ³GLVVHQW´ ³KHUHV\´DQG³WUHDVRQ´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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WK7KHVLV7KH6\PPHWU\$V\PPHWU\3ULQFLSOH
7KHQLQHWHHQWKWKHVLVLVODEHOHGDVWKHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOH RQ WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV DPRQJ H[LVWHQWV LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³DJHQF\´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVZKLFK ZDVDOVRDOUHDG\ ZRUNHGRXW LQ P\SUHYLRXV ERRNV LQWKDWWKHUHLVQRDV\PPHWU\ZLWKRXWV\PPHWU\²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¶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³LWLVJHQHUDOO\DFFHSWHG WKDWWKHOHDGLQJIURQWLVWKHPDLQPRWRUWKDWSXOOVWKHFHOOIRUZDUG´LQ6HF
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
DFFRUGLQJWRPXWDWLRQELDV³LIVHOHFWLRQZRXOGIDYRUHLWKHURQHRXW RIWZRPXWDWLRQVEXWWKHUHLVQRH[WUDDGYDQWDJHWRKDYLQJERWKWKHQWKH PXWDWLRQ WKDW RFFXUV WKH PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ LV WKH RQH WKDW LV PRVW OLNHO\ WR EHFRPH IL[HG LQ D SRSXODWLRQ´ LQ 6HF ³DERXW ELOOLRQ \HDUV DJR«-XSLWHUDQG6DWXUQ>WKHWZRJLDQWSODQHWV@«VFDWWHUHGWKHPDMRULW\RI WKH VPDOO LF\ ERGLHV >SODQHWHVLPDOV@ LQZDUGV ZKLOH WKHPVHOYHV PRYLQJ RXWZDUGV´DQG³WKHVHSODQHWHVLPDOVWKHQVFDWWHUHGRIIWKHQH[WSODQHWWKH\ HQFRXQWHUHG LQ D VLPLODU >EXW OHVV SRZHUIXO@ PDQQHU PRYLQJ WKH SODQHWV RUELWV RXWZDUGV ZKLOH WKH\ PRYHG LQZDUGV´ LQ 6HF RQO\ ³DSSUR[LPDWHO\RIWKHZRUOG VELUGVSHFLHVDUHORQJGLVWDQFH PLJUDQWV´VRWKLVPHDQVWKDWDERXWRIWKHELUGVSHFLHVGRQRWUHDOO\ PLJUDWHPXFKRUIDULQ6HFWKH6DPHFRQWUROVWKH2WKHUVE\ZD\RI HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV LQ WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF LQ 6HF WKH SULYLOHJHG SRVLWLRQRI³QDWLYHERUQ$PHULFDQVRYHU6RXWKHUQDQG(DVWHUQ(XURSHDQV´ LQ WKH ROGHU GD\V XQGHU WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI LQ 6HF DVVLPLODWLRQ LQWR D GRPLQDQW FXOWXUH RU WKH 6DPH FDQ RFFXU ³GXH WR LWV SROLWLFDOUHOHYDQFH´OLNH³WKHFDVHRIWKH/DWLQODQJXDJHDQGFXOWXUHWKDW ZHUHJUDGXDOO\DGRSWHGE\ PRVWRIWKHVXEMXJDWHGSHRSOH´LQ6HF WKH*HUPDQLFWULEHVLQYDGHGWKH5RPDQ(PSLUHDQGVHWWOHGWKHUHEXWWKH 5RPDQ&DWKROLF&KXUFKODWHURQFRQYHUWHGWKHPLQWRFODVVLFDOFLYLOL]DWLRQ E\³&KULVWLDQL]DWLRQ´E\WKHWKFHQWXU\LQ6HFLQ/RXLV;,9 XVHG KLV SRZHU WR ³UHYRNH«WKH (GLFW RI 1DQWHV DQG GHFODUHG 3URWHVWDQWLVPWREHLOOHJDOLQWKH(GLFWRI)RQWDLQHEOHDX´ZKLFKOHGWRWKH +XJXHQRW H[RGXV IURP )UDQFH LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\´ LQ 6HF VRPH JURXSV KDYH PRUH ZHDOWK WKDQ RWKHUV LQ D PRGHUQ VRFLHW\ WR WKH H[WHQW WKDW UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ RFFXUV LQ 6HF QDWXUDO GLVDVWHUV FDQ SRZHUIXOO\ IRUFH KXPDQV WR IOHH DV VKRZQ LQ WKH WKUHH W\SHV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ E\ ,20 LQ 6HF ³VHHGOLQJ SUHGDWRUV DQG SDWKRJHQV«RIWHQ WDUJHW WKH KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI VHHGV EHQHDWK DGXOWV´ DQG HDW WKHP LQ 6HF WKH -HZLVK OREE\ JURXS LQ FRQWHPSRUDU\ $PHULFD LV PRUH SRZHUIXO WKDQ WKH $UDE$PHULFDQ OREE\ JURXS LQ 6HF KXPDQV KDYH WKH LQWHOOLJHQFH SRZHU DQG WHFKQRORJ\ WR HQJDJH LQ VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ WKDW LQVHFWV FDQQRW LQ 6HF IRU WKRVH LQ ³WKH YDULRXV &LYLO 5LJKWV 0RYHPHQWV WKDW DURVH LQ WKH V DQG V´ PLQRULW\JURXSVKDYHRIWHQVXIIHUHGIURPUDFLVPDQGGLVFULPLQDWLRQE\WKH ZKLWHPDMRULW\LQ6HFDQGWKH(QJOLVKVHWWOHUVDOPRVWZLSHGRXWWKH 1DWLYH,QGLDQVZLWK³WKH.LQJ3KLOLS V:DU>KDYLQJ@«WKHPRVWGUDPDWLF HIIHFW RQ ORFDO SRSXODWLRQV UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKH GHDWK RU GLVSODFHPHQW RI DV PXFK DV RI WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI 1DWLYH $PHULFDQV RI VRXWKHUQ 1HZ (QJODQG DQG WKH HQVODYHPHQW DQG UHPRYDO RI WKRXVDQGV RI 1DWLYH $PHULFDQVWRWKH&DULEEHDQDQGRWKHUORFDOHV´LQ6HF
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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
WK7KHVLV7KH6RIWQHVV+DUGQHVV3ULQFLSOH 7KH WZHQWLHWK WKHVLV UHIHUV WR WKH VRIWQHVVKDUGQHVV SULQFLSOH RQ WKH IRUFH RI FKDQJH LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³DJHQF\´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV ZKLFKZDVILUVWZRUNHGRXWLQ$/' LQWKDWDQ\FKDQJHE\DQDJHQWEHLW RUJDQLFOLNHKXPDQV RUQRQRUJDQLFOLNHQDWXUDOREMHFWV FDQRFFXULQD IRUFHIXODJJUHVVLYH RUJHQWOHSDFLILF ZD\ZKLFKFDQFRPHLQDOOVKDSHV DQG VL]HV RI FRXUVH 7KHUH LV QR VRIWQHVV ZLWKRXW KDUGQHVV²DQG YLFH YHUVD )RULQVWDQFHRQWKHRQHKDQGWKHUHLVVRIWQHVVHJWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQ RI³WKHF\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´E\LWVDGYRFDWHVLQ6HFWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQ RI WKH UROH RI JHQHWLF GULIW LQ WKH VWXG\ RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ E\ .LPXUD LQ 6HF WKH DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV DV VKRZQ LQ LWV DFFHSWDQFHE\PDQ\SK\VLFLVWVQRZDGD\VLQ6HFWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQRI WKH VWXG\ RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQ E\ LWV DGYRFDWHV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH XVH RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQNQRZOHGJHLQWKHFRQVHUYDWLRQPRYHPHQWIRUWKHSDVVLQJRI³WKH 0LJUDWRU\ %LUG 7UHDW\ $FW RI RI WKH 86 DQG WKH $IULFDQ(XUDVLDQ 0LJUDWRU\ :DWHUELUG $JUHHPHQW´ LQ 6HF WKH IUHHGRP WR WUDYHO LQ SRVW6RYLHW 5XVVD QRZDGD\V LQ LQ 6HF WKH LQFOXVLRQ RI 1RUWKZHVWHUQ(XURSHDQLPPLJUDQWVLQWKH86GXULQJWKH¶VLQ6HF WKH WROHUDQFH WR LQWHUPDUULDJH LQ 6HF WKH FRQYHUVLRQ RI WKH *HUPDQLFWULEHVLQWRFODVVLFDOFLYLOL]DWLRQE\³&KULVWLDQL]DWLRQ´XQGHUWKH JXLGDQFHRIWKH5RPDQ&DWKROLF&KXUFKLQ6HFWKHZHOFRPHRIWKH +XJXHQRWVWR3UXVVLDE\&DOYLQLVW*UHDW(OHFWRU)UHGHULFN:LOOLDPLQ6HF ³HJRLVWLFUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQFDQEHVHHQLQWKHH[DPSOHRIDZRUNHU ZKR EHOLHYHV KH VKRXOG KDYH EHHQ SURPRWHG IDVWHU DQG PD\ OHDG WR WKDW
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
SHUVRQ WDNLQJ DFWLRQV GHVLJQHG WR LPSURYH KLV SRVLWLRQ´ LQ 6HF QDWXUH FDQ SURYLGH ODQG IRRG VKHOWHU HWF IRU KXPDQV LQ 6HF WKH ³FRHYROYHGPXWXDOLVWLFUHODWLRQVKLSLQZKLFKDSODQWVXUURXQGVVHHGVZLWK DQHGLEOHQXWULWLRXVIUXLWDVDJRRGIRRGIRUDQLPDOVWKDWFRQVXPHLW´DQG WKHVH ³ELUGV DQG PDPPDOV DUH WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW VHHG GLVSHUVHUV´ LQ UHWXUQLQ6HFWKHWROHUDQFHRI³GXDOOR\DOW\´LQGLDVSRUDSROLWLFVLQ 6HFKXPDQVFDQFRRSHUDWHIRUVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLQ6HFWKH FDOO IRU WROHUDQFH LQ 6HF DQG WKH UHODWLYH SHDFH DQG FRRSHUDWLRQ EHWZHHQWKH1DWLYH,QGLDQVDQGWKH3LOJUDPVLQOLNHWKH³SOHGJHVRI SHDFH´XQGHUWKHOHDGHUVKLSRI(GZDUG:LQVORZLQ6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV KDUGQHVV HJ WKH FULWLTXH RI ³WKH F\WRVNHOHWDOPRGHO´E\WKRVHLQ³WKHPHPEUDQHIORZPRGHO´RUE\WKRVHLQ WKH ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´ PRGHO LQ 6HF WKH FULWLTXH RI WKH UROH RI JHQHWLF GULIW LQ WKH VWXG\ RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ E\ )LVKHU LQ 6HF WKH FULWLTXH RI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DV FLWHG LQ 6HF WKH FULWLTXH RI WKH VWXG\ RI ELUG PLJUDWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFVDVFLWHGLQ 6HFWKHEDQRIWUDYHOLQWKH6RYLHW8QLRQGXULQJWKH&ROG:DULQ 6HFWKHH[FOXVLRQRILPPLJUDQWVIURPWKH$VLD±3DFLILF7ULDQJOHLQ WKH86GXULQJWKH¶VLQ6HFWKHLQWROHUDQFHWRLQWHUPDUULDJH LQ6HFWKHLQYDVLRQRIWKH5RPDQ(PSLUHE\WKH*HUPDQLFWULEHVLQ 6HFWKHH[SXOVLRQRIWKH+XJXHQRWVIURP)UDQFHLQWKHWKFHQWXU\ E\ /RXLV ;,9 LQ 6HF ³IUDWHUQDOLVWLF >UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ@ FDQ EH VHHQLQWKHH[DPSOHRIUDFLDOGLVFULPLQDWLRQ´ZKLFKLV³PXFKPRUHOLNHO\ WR UHVXOW LQ WKH FUHDWLRQ DQG JURZWK RI ODUJH VRFLDO PRYHPHQW OLNH WKH $PHULFDQ &LYLO 5LJKWV 0RYHPHQW LQ WKH V´ DJDLQVW ZKLWH UDFLVP LQ 6HFQDWXUHFDQDOVRJLYHKXPDQVDKDUGWLPHOLNHQDWXUDOGLVDVWHUV LQ 6HF ³VHHGOLQJ SUHGDWRUV DQG SDWKRJHQV«RIWHQ WDUJHW WKH KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI VHHGV EHQHDWK DGXOWV´ DQG HDW WKHP LQ 6HF WKH GHPDQG IRU QDWLYLVW ³OR\DOW\´ RQO\ E\ ³RSSRUWXQLVW H[WUHPLVWV´ LQ KRVW VWDWHV LQ 6HF KXPDQV FDQ GHVWUR\ HDFK RWKHU LQ D ³QXFOHDU ZDU´ ZKLFK³FRXOGZLSHXVDOORXW´LQ6HFWKHOHJDF\RIGLVFULPLQDWLRQ LQ 6HF DQG WKH FRQIOLFWV EHWZHHQ WKH 1DWLYH ,QGLDQV DQG WKH 3LOJUDPV LQ OLNH WKH DWWDFNV DJDLQVW WKH 1DWLYH ,QGLDQV XQGHU WKH OHDGHUVKLSRI0\OHV6WDQGLVKDQGKLV³PLOLWLD´LQ6HF $QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $JDLQLWVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHG KRZHYHUWKDWWKHUHDUHGLIIHUHQWVKDGHV RI JUD\ RU GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI WUXWK LQ WKH WZR RSSRVLWHV DQG WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH HLWKHU ,Q IDFW HYHQ ZKHQVRPHFRPELQDWLRQVRIWKHWZRRFFXUWKH\RQO\HQG XSVKDULQJWKH VDPHGLDOHFWLFUHODWLRQVKLSEXWLQDGLIIHUHQWGHJUHH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
$OVR WKHUH DUH VRPH RWKHU UHODWLRQVKLSV DV D NLQG RI IDPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH ZKLFK KDYH VRPHWKLQJ LQ FRPPRQ ZLWK WKH SULQFLSOH EXW WKH\ DUH QRW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EXW RQO\ PRUH RU OHVV FRPSDUDEOH ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH *RRGH[DPSOHVRIIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHSULQFLSOHDUH SHDFHIXOQHVVYLROHQFH FRRSHUDWLRQFRPSHWLWLRQ SDFLILFLW\DJJUHVVLRQ GRYLVKQHVVKDZNLVKQHVV UHZDUGSXQLVKPHQW SHDFHZDU IULHQGOLQHVV XQIULHQGOLQHVV NLQGQHVVKRVWLOLW\ ORYHKDWUHG DFFHSWDQFHGLVFULPLQDWLRQ DGPLUDWLRQEHOLWWOHPHQWLQFOXVLRQH[FOXVLRQDQGWKHOLNH
VW7KHVLV7KH6HULRXVQHVV3OD\IXOQHVV3ULQFLSOH 7KHWZHQW\ILUVWWKHVLVUHIHUV WRWKHVHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVVSULQFLSOH RQ WKH H[WHQW RI VHULRXVQHVV LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³DJHQF\´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV ZKLFK LV ILUVW ZRUNHG RXW LQ )3++ LQ WKDW LI WKHUH LV VHULRXVQHVVWKHUHLVDOVRSOD\IXOQHVVHVSHFLDOO\ IRUDQ\DJHQW ZLWK VRPH NLQG RI LQWHOOLJHQFH OLIH EH LW DERXW KXPDQV DQLPDOV RU ODWHU SRVW KXPDQV7KHUHLVQRVHULRXVQHVVZLWKRXWSOD\IXOQHVV²DQGYLFHYHUVD /HVWDQ\PLVXQGHUVWDQGLQJRFFXUVWKHZRUG³SOD\IXOQHVV´KHUHVKRXOG QRW EH FRQIXVHG ZLWK RWKHU WHUPV OLNH ³ODXJKWHU´ ³VPLOH´ ³MRNH´ ³WLFNOHQHVV´DQG³ODXJKOLNHYRFDOL]DWLRQ´LQVRPHDQLPDOV IRULQVWDQFH %HLQJ SOD\IXO FDQ FRPH LQ DOO VKDSHV DQG VL]HV DQG WKHUHIRUH LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\WLHGXSZLWKDQ\RIWKHVHWHUPVDOKRXJKLWFDQUHVXOWIURPDQ\ RIWKHPRUDFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHPRUVRPHWKLQJHOVHDOWRJHWKHU 7KLVSULQFLSOHWRJHWKHUZLWKVRPHRWKHUSULQFLSOHVHVSHFLDOO\WKRXJK QRW H[FOXVLYHO\ OLNH WKH IRUPDOQHVVLQIRUPDOQHVV SULQFLSOH KDYH LPSRUWDQW LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU ZKDW FRQVWLWXWHV UDWLRQDOLW\ EH LW DERXW ³UDWLRQDOLW\ RI DSSOLFDWLRQ´ DW WKH SUDFWLFDO OHYHO RU ³UDWLRQDOLW\ RI NQRZOHGJH´ DW WKH PHWDWKHRUHWLFDO OHYHO DV VXPPDUL]HG LQ 6HF RI )3++ )RU LQVWDQFH RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKHUH LV VHULRXVQHVV HJ WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI 3XUFHOO ZKHQ KH SURSRVHV ³FHOO VZLPPLQJ´ LQ RUGHU WR XQGHUVWDQG FHOO PLJUDWLRQ EHWWHU LQ 6HF WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI WKRVH ZKR ZDQW WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH RI YDULDWLRQ LQ D SRSXODWLRQ LQ 6HF WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI SK\VLFLVWV WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH HYROXWLRQ DQG IRUPDWLRQ RI WKH VRODU V\VWHP OLNH WKRVH IRU WKH /DSODFLDQ QHEXODU PRGHOLQWKHWKFHQWXU\LQ6HFWKHVHULRXVEXVLQHVVRIWKRVHZKR UHVHDUFKRQELUGPRYHPHQWVWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHSKHQRPHQRQEHWWHULQ6HF WKHVHULRXVEXVLQHVVRI:HVWHUQ PDVV PHGLDWRUHSRUWGHIHFWLRQLQ 6HF WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI WKRVH LQ &RQJUHVV ZKR KDG WR GHFLGH ZKHWKHURUQRWWRSDVVWKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRILQWKH¶VLQ6HF
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
WKHVHULRXVEXVLQHVVRIWKRVHLQWKHVWXG\RI³PHDVXUDEOHDVSHFWVRI DVVLPLODWLRQ´ WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH RI LPPLJUDQW DVVLPLODWLRQ LQ 6HF WKHVHULRXVEXVLQHVVRIWKRVHLQWKHVWXG\RI0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUWWR XQGHUVWDQG GLIIHUHQW VW\OHV LQ *HUPDQLF DUW LQ 6HF WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVVRIWKRVH(DVW*HUPDQVDIWHU::,,WRIOHHWR:HVW*HUPDQ\LQ 6HF WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI GHSULYDWLRQ WR XQGHUVWDQGEHWWHULWVQDWXUHLQ6HFWKHVHULRXVEXVLQHVVRIWKRVHLQ WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQPLJUDWLRQDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQ6HFWKHVHULRXVEXVLQHVV RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH RI ELRGLYHUVLW\ LQ 6HF WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVV RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI GLDVSRUD SROLWLFV WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH LVVXH RI OR\DOW\ LQ 6HF WKH VHULRXVEXVLQHVVRIWKRVHLQWKHVWXG\RIVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQWRXQGHUVWDQG GLIIHUHQWPHWKRGVRILQWHUJDODFWLFWUDYHOLQ6HFWKHVHULRXVEXVLQHVV RI WKRVH ILJKWLQJ IRU PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP LQ 6HF DQG WKH VHULRXV EXVLQHVVRIWKRVHLQSRZHUWRGHDOZLWKWKHLVVXHRIUHOLJLRXVVDQFWLRQVLQ 6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV SOD\IXOQHVV HJ WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI 3XUFHOO ZKHQ KH SOD\V DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW SRVVLELOLWLHV RI FHOO VZLPPLQJ OLNH VZLPPLQJ ZLWK ³D IODJHOOXP´ ZLWK ³D IOH[LEOH DUP´ RU HYHQLQWKHFDVHRI³DK\SRWKHWLFDOWRURLGDOFHOO´E\³URWDWLQJLWVVXUIDFH WKURXJKWKHFHQWUDOKROH´HWFLQ6HFWKHSOD\IXOSDUWRIWKRVHZKR ZDQW WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH RI YDULDWLRQ LQ D SRSXODWLRQ ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG ZLWK ³WKH LGHD RI EOHQGLQJ LQKHULWDQFH GXULQJ WKH WK FHQWXU\´ EHIRUHLWZDVODWHUUHMHFWHGE\WKRVHLQPRGHUQSRSXODWLRQJHQHWLFVLQ6HF WKHSOD\IXOSDUWRIWKHSK\VLFLVWVIRUWKH/DSODFLDQQHEXODUPRGHOLQ WKHWKFHQWXU\ZKHQWKH\SOD\HGDURXQGZLWKWKHVLPSOHLGHDWKDW³DVWKH QHEXOD FRQWUDFWHG LW IODWWHQHG DQG VKHG ULQJV RI PDWHULDO ZKLFK ODWHU FROODSVHG LQWR WKH SODQHWV´ EXW WKLV PRGHO LV QRZ UHMHFWHG EHFDXVH ³WKH SODQHWV KDYH RI WKH DQJXODU PRPHQWXP DQG WKLV IDFW FRXOG QRW EH H[SODLQHG E\ WKH QHEXODU PRGHO´ LQ 6HF WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI WKRVH ZKR UHVHDUFK RQ ELUG PRYHPHQWV ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\ DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW LGHDV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH H[DPSOH WKDW SHRSOH LQ DQWLTXLW\ OLNH $ULVWRWOH ³VXJJHVWHG WKDW VZDOORZV DQG RWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´ HWF LQ 6HF WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI :HVWHUQ PDVV PHGLD ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\ DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW SROLFLHV RI FRYHUDJH VXFK WKDW ³PHGLD VRXUFHV RIWHQ UHSRUWHG KLJK OHYHO GHIHFWLRQV´ EXW ³QRQSURPLQHQW GHIHFWLRQV XVXDOO\ ZHQW XQUHSRUWHG´LQ6HFWKHSOD\IXOSDUWRIRIWKRVHLQ&RQJUHVVZKRKDG WR GHDO ZLWK WKH LVVXH RI LPPLJUDWLRQ LQ WKH ¶V ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG DURXQGZLWKGLIIHUHQWVWRULHVDERXW³6RXWKHUQDQG(DVWHUQ(XURSHDQV´OLNH WKH RQH E\ &RQJUHVVPDQ 5HHG LQ WKDW WKHVH 6RXWKHUQ DQG (DVWHUQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
(XURSHDQVZHUHEHOLHYHGWR³DUULYHVLFNDQGVWDUYLQJDQGWKHUHIRUH>WREH@ OHVVFDSDEOHRIFRQWULEXWLQJWRWKH$PHULFDQHFRQRP\´HWFLQ6HF WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI ³PHDVXUDEOH DVSHFWV RI DVVLPLODWLRQ´ ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG DURXQG ZLWK WKH IDOVH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW ³WKH FKDQJLQJ RI LPPLJUDQW QDPHV LV QRW RQH RI WKH«PHDVXUDEOH EHQFKPDUNV IRU DVVLPLODWLRQ´ EHFDXVH ³LW LV RIWHQ EHOLHYHG WKDW GXH WR ODQJXDJH EDUULHUV RU WKH ODFN RI WUDLQLQJ DQG VHQVLWLYLW\ E\ JRYHUQPHQW RIILFLDOV QDPHV ZHUH RIWHQ FKDQJHG ZLWKRXW FRQVHQW E\ LQVSHFWRUV RQ (OOLV ,VODQG´ LQ 6HF WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW FODVVLILFDWLRQVOLNH6DOLQ¶VFODVVLILFDWLRQRI6W\OHV,,,DQG,,,RQO\EXW ³DIWHU DERXW ORFDOLVHG VW\OHV´ ZHUH GLVFRYHUHG´ E\ UHVHDUFKHUV ³LW LV QRORQJHUYHU\XVHIXOWRWDONRIDJHQHUDO*HUPDQLFVW\OH´OLNHWKHRQHVE\ 6DOLQLQ6HFWKHSOD\IXOSDUWRIWKRVH(DVW*HUPDQVDIWHU::,,WR IOHHWR:HVW*HUPDQ\ZKHQWKH\SOD\HGDURXQGZLWKGLIIHUHQWH[FXVHVWR KLGHWKHLUUHDOLQWHQWLRQVIURPWKHDXWKRULWLHVDVVKRZQLQWKHH[FXVHWKDW ³WKH\ ZHUH OHDYLQJ IRU HFRQRPLF UHDVRQV´ EXW ³WHVWLPRQ\ IURP UHIXJHHV LQGLFDWHGWKDWWKHUHDVRQVZHUHPRUHSROLWLFDOWKDQPDWHULDO´LQ6HF WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI GHSULYDWLRQ ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW LGHDV OLNH ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ WKH XVH RI UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ IRU WKH VWXG\ RI VRFLDO GHYLDQFHWKHUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQWKHRU\IRUWKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQHWFLQ 6HF WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ ZKHQ WKH\SOD\HG DURXQG ZLWKGLIIHUHQW ³ILQGLQJV´ ZKLFKWXUQ RXWWREH³LQFRQVLVWHQWDQGXQVRXQG´DQGDOVR³QRWIDOVLILDEOH´DVSRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV LQ 6HF WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI WKRVH LQ WKH VWXG\ RI VHHG GLVSHUVDO ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW YLHZV OLNH WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV ZKLFK ZDV ODWHU FULWLFL]HG E\ WKH FULWLFV DV XQIDOVLDEOH XQVRXQG XQFRQILUPDEOH HWF DV GLVFXVVHG HDUOLHU LQ 6HF WKHSOD\IXOSDUWRIWKRVHLQWKHVWXG\RIGLDVSRUDSROLWLFVZKHQWKH\ SOD\DURXQGZLWKGLIIHUHQWLGHDVRIOR\DOW\RYHUWLPHOLNH³GXDOOR\DOW\´ ³WUDQVQDWLRQDO´OR\DOW\HWFLQ6HFWKHSOD\IXOSDUWRIWKRVHLQWKH VWXG\ RI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\ DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW K\SRWKHWLFDO FRQFHSWV OLNH ³ZRUPKROHV ³K\SHUVSDFH´ ³WKH $OFXELHUUH GULYH´ HWF LQ 6HF WKH SOD\IXO SDUW RI WKRVH ILJKWLQJ IRU PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP ZKHQ WKH\ SOD\HG DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW VORJDQV OLNH ³KXPDQ ULJKWV UHYROXWLRQ´ ³VSHFLDO ULJKWV´ ³WKH GLJQLW\ RI WKH OLYHV DQG YRLFHVRIWKHIRUJRWWHQ´HWFLQ6HFDQGWKHSOD\IXOSDUWRIWKRVHLQ SRZHUWRGHDOZLWKWKHLVVXHRIUHOLJLRXVVDQFWLRQVZKHQWKH\SOD\DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW H[FXVHV IRU UHOLJLRXV SHUVHFXWLRQ OLNH GLIIHUHQW LQWHUSUHWDWLRQVRI³GLVVHQW´³KHUHV\´³WUHDVRQ´HWFLQ6HF
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
$QGWKHUHYHUVHGLUHFWLRQDOVRKROGVWUXH $JDLQLWVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHG KRZHYHUWKDWWKHUHDUHGLIIHUHQWVKDGHV RI JUD\ RU GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI WUXWK LQ WKH WZR RSSRVLWHV DQG WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH HLWKHU ,Q IDFW HYHQ ZKHQVRPHFRPELQDWLRQVRIWKHWZRRFFXUWKH\RQO\HQG XSVKDULQJWKH VDPHGLDOHFWLFUHODWLRQVKLSEXWLQDGLIIHUHQWGHJUHH $OVR WKHUH DUH VRPH RWKHU UHODWLRQVKLSV DV D NLQG RI IDPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH ZKLFK KDYH VRPHWKLQJ LQ FRPPRQ ZLWK WKH SULQFLSOH EXW WKH\ DUH QRW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EXW RQO\ PRUH RU OHVV FRPSDUDEOH ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH *RRGH[DPSOHVRIIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHSULQFLSOHDUH VHULRXVQHVVMRNLQJQHVV VHULRXVQHVVKXPRURXVQHVV VHULRXVQHVVZLWWLQHVV VHULRXVQHVVQRQVHULRXVQHVV $SROOR'LRQ\VXV VHULRXVQHVVUHVWLQJQHVV VHULRXVQHVVUHOD[HGQHVVDQGVRIRUWK
QG7KHVLV7KH5HJUHVVLRQ3URJUHVVLRQ3ULQFLSOH 7KHWZHQW\VHFRQGWKHVLVLVFDOOHGWKHUHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQSULQFSOH RQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI KLVWRU\ LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³RXWFRPH´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFVZKLFK ZDVDOVRDOUHDG\ ZRUNHGRXW LQ P\SUHYLRXVERRNV LQ WKDW QHLWKHU WKH F\FOLFDO QRU WKH OLQHDU YLHZV DUH DGHTXDWH IRU H[SODLQLQJ PDQ\ SKHQRPHQD DW DOO OHYHOV 7KHUH LV QR UHJUHVVLRQ ZLWKRXW SURJUHVVLRQ²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¶V ZKHQ$VLDQ3DFLILFLQGLYLGXDOVZHUHQRWDOORZHGWRLPPLJUDWHWRWKH86
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
DQGWKXVFRXOGQRWPDNHFRQWULEXWLRQVWR$PHULFDQVRFLHW\LQDZD\WKDW WKH\FRXOGDIWHUWKH¶VXQGHUWKH,PPLJUDWLRQDQG1DWLRQDOLW\$FWRI ZKLFK UHVXOWHG LQ WKH PXOWLIROGHG LQFUHDVH RI $VLDQV DQG 3DFLILF ,VODQGHUVFRPLQJWRWKH86VXFKWKDWWKH\³KHOSHGVWLPXODWHWKHVXQEHOW ERRP´LQVXEVHTXHQW\HDUVDQGGHFDGHVLQ6HFWKHUHJUHVVLRQPDGH E\ DVVLPLODWLRQ SROLF\ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVWV LQ 6HF WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI 0LJUDWLRQ3HULRGDUWDVVKRZQLQWKHSUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFV DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PDGH E\ /RXLV ;,9 EHFDXVH KLV H[SXOVLRQ RI WKH +XJXHQRWV IURP )UDQFH LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\ OHG WR DQ HFRQRPLF³EORZIURPZKLFKWKHNLQJGRPGLGQRWIXOO\UHFRYHUIRUPDQ\ \HDUV´ LQ 6HF WKH GLVDGYDQWDJH RI WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LV WKDW ³DQ\ DEVROXWH SRYHUW\ WKUHVKROG LV WR VRPH H[WHQW DUELWUDU\´ LQ 6HF WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFVLQ6HFWKHUHJUHVVLRQPDGHE\WKHVWXG\RIVHHGGLVSHUVDODV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV LQ 6HF WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI GLDVSRUD SROLWLFV DV VKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPVSRLQWHGRXWE\WKHFULWLFVLQ6HFWKHUHJUHVVLRQPDGHE\ ³SDVVLYHPDVVVKLHOGLQJ´IRUUDGLDWLRQSURWHFWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHWUDGHRII WKDW³LWUHSUHVHQWVDVLJQLILFDQWREVWDFOHWRPDQHXYHULQJYHVVHOVZLWKVXFK PDVVLYHEXON´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³VHFUHF\´ ³RSSRVLWLRQ´ DQG ³EUDLQGUDLQ´LQ6HFWKHSURJUHVVPDGHE\WKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRI LQWKH¶VWRVXFFHVVIXOO\EDQLPPLJUDQWV³IURPWKH$VLD±3DFLILF 7ULDQJOH´ LQ 6HF WKH SURJUHVV PDGH E\ DVVLPLODWLRQ SROLF\ DV
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
VKRZQLQWKHDUJXPHQWE\DVVLPLODWLRQLVWVWKDW³WKHLUQDWLRQKDVUHDFKHGLWV SUHVHQWVWDWHRIGHYHORSPHQWEHFDXVHLWKDVEHHQDEOHWRIRUJHRQHQDWLRQDO LGHQWLW\´ LQ 6HF WKH SURJUHVV PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW DV VKRZQ LQ LWV FRQWULEXWLRQ WR D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI *HUPDQLFDUWDIRUHFLWHGLQ6HFWKHSURJUHVVPDGHE\/RXLV;,9LQ DVVKRZQLQKLVVXFFHVVWRPDNH3URWHVWDQWLVP³LOOHJDOLQWKH(GLFW RI)RQWDLQHEOHDX´VRDVWRIDYRUWKH&DWKROLFVLQ6HFWKHDGYDQWDJH RI WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI ³DEVROXWH GHSULYDWLRQ´ LV WKH XVH ³WKH VDPH VWDQGDUGDFURVVGLIIHUHQWORFDWLRQVDQGWLPHSHULRGVPDNLQJFRPSDULVRQV HDVLHU´ LQ 6HF WKH SURJUHVV PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDQWV ZRUNHGRXWE\,20LQ6HFWKHSURJUHVVPDGHE\WKHVWXG\RIVHHG GLVSHUVDO DV VKRZQ LQ LWV FRQWULEXWLRQ WR D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH LQ VHHG GLVSHUVDO DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH SURJUHVV PDGH E\ WKH VWXG\ RI GLDVSRUD SROLWLFV DV VKRZQ LQ LWV FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH GLIIHUHQW SROLWLFDO VSKHUHV RI GLDVSRUDDIRUHGLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWKHSURJUHVVPDGHE\³SDVVLYHPDVV VKLHOGLQJ´ DV VKRZQ LQ LWV FRQWULEXWLRQ WR ³UDGLDWLRQ SURWHFWLRQ´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
UG7KHVLV7KH6DPH'LIIHUHQFH3ULQFLSOH 7KHWZHQW\WKLUGWKHVLVUHIHUVWRWKHVDPHGLIIHUHQFHSULQFLSOH RQWKH PHWDPRUSKRVLV RI FKDQJH LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI ³RXWFRPH´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
GLDOHFWLFVZKLFKZDVZRUNHGRXWLQ$/'DQGRWKHUERRNVRIPLQH LQWKDW DQHQWLW\DVLWHYROYHVRYHUWLPHFDQEHERWKGLIIHUHQWIURPDQGVLPLODUWR LWV RSSRVLQJ DOWHUQDWLYHV DQG GRHV QRW KDYH WR EH VROHO\ PRUH GLIIHUHQW IURPWKHPRYHUWLPH7KHUHLVQRVLPLODULW\ZLWKRXWGLIIHUHQFH²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³VZDOORZV DQG RWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´²RU E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH PRGHUQ ZD\ RI VWXG\LQJ ELUGV OLNH WKH LGHD WKDW ³PLJUDWLRQ´ LV LQ IDFW ³DQ H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH ZLQWHU GLVDSSHDUDQFH RI ELUGV IURP QRUWKHUQ FOLPHV´ LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHPROGLQJDQGFRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUV UHJDUGOHVVRIZKHWKHUWKLVEHGRQHE\ZD\RIFRPPDQGHFRQRPLFVRUE\ ZD\ RI PDUNHW HFRQRPLFV LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQGFRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVUHJDUGOHVVRIZKHWKHUWKLVEH GRQH E\ ZD\ RI WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI RU E\ ZD\ RI WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQDQG1DWLRQDOLW\$FWRILQ6HFWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV UHJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ ZD\ RI DVVLPLODWLRQLVP RU E\ ZD\ RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPLQ6HFWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHPROGLQJDQGFRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV UHJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ ZD\RIWKH*HUPDQLFWULEHVRUE\ZD\RIWKH5RPDQ&DWKROLF&KXUFKLQ
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
6HFWKHFRQWULEXWLRQ WRWKH PROGLQJDQGFRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV UHJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ ZD\ RI HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV OLNH WKRVH LQ WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF DIWHU WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH %HUOLQ :DOO²RU E\ ZD\ RI OD[HG HPLJUDWLRQ SROLFLHV OLNH WKRVH LQ FRQWHPSRUDU\,QGLDZKHUH³WKH,QGLDQJRYHUQPHQWKDVQRWDGRSWHGVWULFW SROLFLHV EHFDXVH WKH\ EHOLHYH WKDW WKH RYHUVHDV WDOHQW ZLOO HYHQWXDOO\ FRQWULEXWHWRWKHQDWLRQLQWKHIXWXUH´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±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV IRU WKH UROH RI GLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFH LQ ELRGLYHUVLW\ RU E\ WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYH K\SRWKHVHV IRU RWKHU PHFKDQLVPV OLNH GLVHDVH SUHGDWLRQ HWF WR FDXVH ELRGLYHUVLW\ LQ HFRV\VWHPV LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVUHJDUGOHVVRIZKHWKHUWKLVEHGRQHE\ZD\ RI [HQRSKRELF RQHFRXQWU\ OR\DOW\ RU E\ ZD\ RI WUDQVQDWLRQDOLVP IRU ³KHWHURJHQHRXVDQGPXOWLFXOWXUDO´OR\DOW\LQ6HFWKHFRQWULEXWLRQ WRWKHPROGLQJDQGFRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVUHJDUGOHVVRI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ ZD\ RI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ RU E\ ZD\ RI WKH H[SORUDWLRQRIWKH LQQHUVSDFH WKDWLVWKHFRPSXWHUDLGHGH[SORUDWLRQRI WKHKXPDQPLQGDQGKXPDQFRQVFLRXVQHVV´LQ6HFWKHFRQWULEXWLRQ WRWKHPROGLQJDQGFRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVUHJDUGOHVVRI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ ZD\ RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP RU E\ ZD\ RI DVVLPLODWLRQLVP LQ 6HF DQG WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV UHJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU WKLV EH GRQH E\ ZD\ RI ³UHOLJLRXV XQLIRUPLW\´ RU E\ ZD\ RI ³UHOLJLRXV YROXQWDULVP´LQ6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV GLIIHUHQFH LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI WKH VFLHQWLILF VWXG\ RI FHOO PLJUDWLRQ IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VHFXODU ZRUOGYLHZ²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVE\ZD\RIWKHVSLULWXDOVWXG\RIDQLPLVPIRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VDFUDO ZRUOGYLHZ LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI WKH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH LGHD RI WKH JUHDW FKDLQ RI EHLQJ IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VDFUDO OLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH VWXG\ RI JHQH PLJUDWLRQ IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VHFXODU OLIHZRUOG LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\WKHDFFHSWDQFHRI61'0IRUDUHODWLYHO\PRUHVHFXODUZRUOGYLHZ²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUVE\ZD\RIWKHDFFHSWDQFHRI&KULVWLDQJHQHVLVFUHDWLRQP\WKIRU DUHODWLYHO\ PRUH VDFUHG ZRUOGYLHZLQ6HFWKHFRQWULEXWLRQ WRWKH PROGLQJDQGFRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVE\WKHDFFHSWDQFHRI WKH $ULVWRWHOLDQ ZD\ RI VWXG\LQJ ELUGV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VSHFXODWLYH ZRUOGYLHZ²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH PRGHUQ ZD\ RI VWXG\LQJ ELUGV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH HPSLULFLVW ZRUOGYLHZ LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI FRPPDQG HFRQRPLFV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRRSHUDWLYH UHJXODWHG OLIHZRUOG ZLWK KHDY\ UHVWULFWLRQV E\ WKH VWDWH²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ZD\RIPDUNHWHFRQRPLFVIRUDUHODWLYHO\PRUHFRPSHWLWLYHOLIHZRUOG ZLWKPLQLPDOUHJXODWLRQVE\WKHVWDWHLQ6HFWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH H[FOXVLYH OLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ DQG 1DWLRQDOLW\ $FW RI IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH LQFOXVLYH OLIHZRUOG LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI DVVLPLODWLRQLVP IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH GRPLQDWLQJ OLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH HJDOLWDULDQ OLIHZRUOG LQ 6HFWKHFRQWULEXWLRQ WRWKH PROGLQJDQGFRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI WKH *HUPDQLF WULEHV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH SHUVRQDO SDJDQ OLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI WKH 5RPDQ &DWKROLF &KXUFK IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH LQVWLWXWLRQDO VDFUDO OLIHZRUOG LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH JRYHUQPHQWGRPLQDWHGOLIHZRUOG²EXWWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHPROGLQJDQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI OD[HG HPLJUDWLRQ SROLFLHV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH PDUNHWGULYHQ OLIHZRUOG LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKHDFFHSWDQFHRIWKHUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ WKHRU\ IRUDUHODWLYHO\ PRUH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
SV\FKRORJLFDOZRUOGYLHZ²EXWWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHPROGLQJDQGFRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI ZRUOG V\VWHPV WKHRU\IRUDUHODWLYHO\ PRUHVRFLDOV\VWHPLF ZRUOGYLHZLQ 6HFWKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\WKHFDPSDLJQIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOMXVWLFHIRUDUHODWLYHO\PRUHSROLWLFDO DFWLYLVW OLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH VFKRODUO\ FULWLTXH RI WKH VWXG\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQIRUDUHODWLYHO\PRUHVFLHQWLILFOLIHZRUOGLQ6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH QDUURZ ZRUOGYLHZ²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYH K\SRWKHVHV IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH KROLVWLF ZRUOGYLHZ LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUVE\ZD\RI[HQRSKRELFRQHFRXQWU\OR\DOW\IRUDUHODWLYHO\PRUH H[FOXVLYH SROLWLFDO OLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVE\ZD\RIWUDQVQDWLRQDOLVPIRUD UHODWLYHO\PRUHLQFOXVLYHSROLWLFDOOLIHZRUOGLQ6HFWKHFRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI VSDFH FRORQL]DWLRQ IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH GHYHORSHG RXWHUOLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI WKH LQQHUVSDFH IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH GHYHORSHG LQQHUOLIHZRUOG LQ 6HF WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH GLYHUVH OLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ZD\RIDVVLPLODWLRQLVPIRUDUHODWLYHO\PRUHKRPRJHQHRXVOLIHZRUOGLQ 6HF DQG WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURO RI EHOLHIV YDOXHV DQG EHKDYLRUV E\ ZD\ RI ³UHOLJLRXV XQLIRUPLW\´ IRU D UHODWLYHO\ PRUH FRQIRUPLVW OLIHZRUOG²EXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PROGLQJ DQG FRQWURORIEHOLHIVYDOXHVDQGEHKDYLRUVE\ZD\RI³UHOLJLRXVYROXQWDULVP´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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
WKH\ DUH QRW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EXW RQO\ PRUH RU OHVV FRPSDUDEOH ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH *RRGH[DPSOHVRIIDPLO\UHVHPEODQFHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHSULQFLSOHDUH KRPRJHQHLW\KHWHURJHQHLW\ZHWKH\VLPLODULW\FRQWUDVWDQGVRIRUWK
WK7KHVLV7KH6WDELOLW\5HDFWLRQ3ULQFLSOH 7KH WZHQW\IRXUWK WKHVLV LV FDOOHG WKH VWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQ SULQFSOH RQ WKHIHHGEDFNPHFKDQLVPIRUIXUWKHUFKDQJHV LQWKHFDWHJRU\RI³RXWFRPH´ LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV ZKLFK ZDV ILUVW ZRUNHG RXW LQ )3+&+(0 LQ WKDW RQFH DQ RXWFRPH EHFRPHV VWDELOL]HG RYHU WLPH ZKLFK YDULHV IURP FDVH WR FDVH LW ZLOO XQGHUJR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV LQ LWV PXOWLIDFHWHG LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWK WKH RXWVLGH ZRUOG HJ ZLWK RWKHU HQWLWLHV HQHUJ\ VSDFHDQGVRRQ 7KHUH LV QR VWDELOLW\ ZLWKRXW UHDFWLRQ IRU IXUWKHU FKDQJHV²DQG YLFH YHUVD )RULQVWDQFHRQWKHRQHKDQGWKHUHLVVWDELOLW\LQRXWFRPHHJWKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI DQLPLVP LQ SUHPRGHUQ WLPHV ZKHQ SHRSOHOLNH7KRPDV$TXLQDVEHOLHYHGWKDW³VRXOVRUVSLULWVH[LVWQRWRQO\ LQKXPDQVEXWDOVRLQDOORWKHUDQLPDOVSODQWVURFNVQDWXUDOSKHQRPHQD VXFKDVWKXQGHUJHRJUDSKLFIHDWXUHVVXFKDVPRXQWDLQVRUULYHUVRURWKHU HQWLWLHV RI WKH QDWXUDO HQYLURQPHQW´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI ³WKH LGHD RI EOHQGLQJ LQKHULWDQFH GXULQJ WKH WK FHQWXU\´ ZKHQ SHRSOH EHOLHYHG WKDW ³LQKHULWHG WUDLWV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG UDQGRPO\ IURP D UDQJH ERXQGHG E\ WKH KRPRORJRXV WUDLWV IRXQG LQ WKH SDUHQWV´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI ³WKH /DSODFLDQQHEXODUPRGHO´IRUWKHH[SODQDWLRQRIWKHIRUPDWLRQRIWKHVRODU V\VWHP ZKHQ LW ³GRPLQDWHG LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\PRUHVWDEOHFRQGLWLRQRIWKHROGEHOLHILQDQWLTXLW\ZKHQSHRSOH LQ DQWLTXLW\ OLNH $ULVWRWOH ³VXJJHVWHG WKDW VZDOORZV DQG RWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV LQ WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF GXULQJ WKH &ROG :DU ZKHQ ³UHVWULFWLRQV LPSOHPHQWHG LQ WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF GXULQJ WKH &ROG :DU VWRSSHG PRVW (DVW:HVW PLJUDWLRQ´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOHFRQGLWLRQRIWKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRILQWKH¶VZKHQLWZDV ZLGHO\ DFFHSWHG DW WKH WLPH WR IDYRU ³QDWLYHERUQ $PHULFDQV RYHU 6RXWKHUQDQG(DVWHUQ(XURSHDQV´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUHVWDEOH FRQGLWLRQRI³WKHVWXGLHVRQLPPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQLQWKHWKFHQWXU\DQG WK FHQWXU\´ ZKHQ WKH\ FODLPHG WKDW ³LPPLJUDQWV KDG D KDUG WLPH FDWFKLQJ XS WR WKH VDPH KXPDQ FDSLWDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DV QDWLYHERUQ SHRSOH LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
FRQGLWLRQ RI 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW LQ WKH HDUO\ GD\V ZKHQ WKH *HUPDQLF WULEHVZHUHEXV\LQDWWDFNLQJWKH5RPDQ(PSLUHDQGVHWWOLQJGRZQWKHUH ZLWK WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKHLU *HUPDQLF DUW LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH EUDLQ GUDLQ SUREOHP LQ &KLQD DIWHU PDUNHW UHIRUPV DV VKRZQ LQ ³WKH ODUJHVFDOH HPLJUDWLRQ RI &KLQHVH SHRSOH ZLWK WHFKQLFDO VNLOOV RU NQRZOHGJH«WR :HVWHUQ FRXQWULHV«VLQFH WKH PLGILUVW GHFDGH RI WKH VW FHQWXU\´ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQRIWKHLGHDRI³UHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ´LQWKHROGHUGD\VZKHQ³LWV RULJLQV DUH IURP WKH ELRORJLFDO FRQFHSW RI UHODWLYH ILWQHVV ZKHUH DQ RUJDQLVPWKDWVXFFHVVIXOO\RXWSURGXFHVLWVFRPSHWLWRUVOHDYHVPRUHFRSLHV LQWKHJHQHSRRO´LQ6HFWKHUHODWLYHO\PRUHVWDEOHFRQGLWLRQRI³WKH OLWHUDWXUHSURGXFHGRQ HQYLURQPHQWDOPLJUDWLRQ ´ZKLFK³LVERWKHPRWLYH DQGFRPPRQVHQVLFDODQGWKHUHIRUHKDVZLGHVSUHDGFXUUHQF\LQWKHPHGLD DQG DPRQJ SROLF\ PDNHUV QRQVRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV DQG QHR0DOWKXVLDQLVW VRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV´ LQ WKH V DQG V IRU H[DPSOH LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH -DQ]HQ±&RQQHOO K\SRWKHVLV LQ WKH VZKHQLWDUJXHGIRUWKHUROHRIGLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQFHLQELRGLYHUVLW\ LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI ³WKH $]HUEDLMDQ JRYHUQPHQW V SHUVLVWHQW IUXVWUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH $UPHQLDQ $PHULFDQ OREE\ LQ :DVKLQJWRQ DQG WKH ODFN RI D YLDEOH $]HUEDLMDQL $PHULFDQ GLDVSRUD SRSXODWLRQ WR FRXQWHU WKH $UPHQLDQ V GRPHVWLF SUHVHQFH´ LQ WKH ROGHU GD\V LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQRIVFLHQFHILFWLRQIRUVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLQPRGHUQWLPHVZKHQ ZULWHUVZURWHDERXW³PLVVLRQGXUDWLRQ´³OLIHVXSSRUW´DQG³WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ LQYROYHG LQ PDQQHG PLVVLRQV´ IRU LQVWDQFH LQ 6HF WKH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH VWDEOH FRQGLWLRQ RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP LQ WKH ODVW GHFDGHV RI WKH WK FHQWXU\ ZKHQ LW ZDV IDVKLRQDEOH LQ WKH (8 LQ 6HF DQG WKH UHODWLYHO\PRUHVWDEOHFRQGLWLRQRI³UHOLJLRXVXQLIRUPLW\´LQWKHROGHUGD\V DVDGYRFDWHGE\5LFKDUG+RRNHULQ6HF 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV UHDFWLRQ LQ RXWFRPH HJ WKH ROG IDVKLRQHG EHOLHI LQ DQLPLVP LQ SUHPRGHUQ WLPHV WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ QRZDGD\V SHRSOH OLNH 3XUFHOO SURSRVH SK\VLFDO SULQFLSOHV LQ KLV ³VFDOORS WKHRUHP´ WR XQGHUVWDQG FHOO PRYHPHQW ZLWKRXW WKHDSSHDOWRWKHH[LVWHQFHRID³VRXO´RU³VSLULW´LQ6HF³WKHLGHDRI EOHQGLQJLQKHULWDQFHGXULQJWKHWKFHQWXU\´WKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ QRZDGD\V ³WKH +DUG\:HLQEHUJ SULQFLSOH«SURYLGHV WKH VROXWLRQ WR KRZ YDULDWLRQ LV PDLQWDLQHG LQ D SRSXODWLRQ ZLWK 0HQGHOLDQ LQKHULWDQFH´LQ6HFWKHGRPLQDQFHRIWKH/DSODFLDQQHEXODUPRGHO WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ LW ZDV UHSODFHG E\ 61'0 ZKLFK QRZ EHFRPHV ³WKH PRVW ZLGHO\ DFFHSWHG PRGHUQ YDULDQW RI WKH QHEXODU K\SRWKHVLV´ LQ 6HF WKH GRPLQDQFH RI WKLV ROG EHOLHI LQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
DQWLTXLW\E\SHRSOHOLNH$ULVWRWOHZKR³VXJJHVWHGWKDWVZDOORZVDQGRWKHU ELUGV KLEHUQDWHG´ WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ ³LW ZDV QRW XQWLO HDUO\ LQ WKH QLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\ WKDW PLJUDWLRQ DV DQ H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKHZLQWHUGLVDSSHDUDQFHRIELUGVIURPQRUWKHUQFOLPHVZDVDFFHSWHG´LQ 6HF WKHVH HPLJUDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV LQ WKH (DVWHUQ %ORF GXULQJ WKH &ROG :DU WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ DIWHU LWV FROODSVH WKHUHLVIUHHGRPRIWUDYHOQRZDGD\VLQSRVW6RYLHW5XVVLDLQLQ6HF WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI LQ WKH ¶V WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ DQG 1DWLRQDOLW\ $FW RI DEROLVKHG WKH ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI DQG RSHQHG ³WKH GRRUV WR LPPLJUDQWVIURP0HGLWHUUDQHDQ(XURSH/DWLQ$PHULFDDQG$VLD´LQ6HF ³WKHVWXGLHVRQLPPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQLQWKHWKFHQWXU\DQGWK FHQWXU\´WKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHVODWHURQZKHQUHFHQW³VWXGLHVVXJJHVW WKDWLPPLJUDQWVHYHQWXDOO\FDWFKXSWRQDWLYHERUQSHRSOH´LQ6HF WKH VSUHDG RI WKH 0LJUDWLRQ 3HULRG DUW LQVLGH WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH LQ WKH HDUO\GD\VWKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHVODWHURQZKHQWKHVH*HUPDQLFWULEHV ZHUHHYHQWXDOO\FRQYHUWHGLQWRFODVVLFDOFLYLOL]DWLRQE\³&KULVWLDQL]DWLRQ´ XQGHU WKH JXLGDQFH RI WKH 5RPDQ &DWKROLF &KXUFK E\ WKH WK FHQWXU\ ZKLFKWKHQOHGWR³DVWHDG\GHFOLQHLQ*HUPDQLFIRUPV´DQGWKHLQFUHDVHRI ³0HGLWHUUDQHDQLQIOXHQFH´LQ6HFWKHEUDLQGUDLQSUREOHPLQ&KLQD DIWHU PDUNHW UHIRUPV KDV WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ ³&KLQD VUDSLGHFRQRPLFJURZWKKDVVHHQWKHQXPEHURI&KLQHVHUHWXUQLQJ IURPRYHUVHDVJURZLQUHFHQW\HDUVVWDUWLQJDQHZFKDSWHULQWKHLUOLYHVDV ZHOO DV WKH FRXQWU\ V KLVWRU\´ LQ 6HF WKH LGHD RI ³UHODWLYH GHSULYDWLRQ´ ZLWK³LWV RULJLQV«IURP WKH ELRORJLFDO FRQFHSW RI UHODWLYH ILWQHVV´WKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHVODWHURQZKHQLWLVXVHGQRZDGD\VIRU WKHVWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQOLNHWKHUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQWKHRU\LQWKHFRQWH[WRI KXPDQ PLJUDWLRQ DIRUHGLVFXVVHG LQ 6HF WKH SRSXODU ³OLWHUDWXUH SURGXFHG RQ HQYLURQPHQWDO PLJUDWLRQ ´ ZKLFK ³LV ERWK HPRWLYH DQG FRPPRQVHQVLFDODQGWKHUHIRUHKDVZLGHVSUHDGFXUUHQF\LQWKHPHGLDDQG DPRQJ SROLF\ PDNHUV QRQVRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV DQG QHR0DOWKXVLDQLVW VRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV´ LQ WKH V DQG V WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQE\WKHVWKHUHKDVEHHQDORWRIFULWLFLVPVDJDLQVWLWDVVKRZQ LQ WKH SUREOHPV SRLQWHG RXW E\ WKH FULWLFV DIRUHFLWHG LQ 6HF WKH VWDEOHFRQGLWLRQRIWKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLVLQWKHVWKHQOHGWR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ LW ZDV FKDOOHQJHG E\ GLIIHUHQW VWXGLHV DV VRPH HYHQ VXJJHVWHG WKDW ³D QXPEHU RI PHFKDQLVPV XQGHUVFRUH WKH FRH[LVWHQFHRIVLPLODUVSHFLHVDQGWKXVFDXVHELRGLYHUVLW\LQHFRV\VWHPV´ VR³WKH-DQ]HQ±&RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLV>IRUVHHGGLVSHUVDO@LVDSSOLFDEOHRQO\ IRUVRPHVSHFLHVGHSHQGLQJRQVSHFLHVFKDUDFWHULVWLFV´LQ6HFWKLV ³$]HUEDLMDQ JRYHUQPHQW V SHUVLVWHQW IUXVWUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
$UPHQLDQ$PHULFDQ OREE\ LQ :DVKLQJWRQ´ WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ ³WKH $]HUEDLMDQL UHVSRQVH KDV EHHQ WR FXOWLYDWH -HZLVK RUJDQL]DWLRQV LQ :DVKLQJWRQ DV WKHLU FRXQWHUEDODQFLQJ DOOLHV WR WKH $UPHQLDQ$PHULFDQ RSSRVLWLRQ´ LQ 6HF WKLV IRFXV RI VFLHQFH ILFWLRQRQVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQLQPRGHUQWLPHVWKHQOHGWRIXUWKHUFKDQJHV ODWHURQZKHQQRZDGD\V³PDQ\VFLHQFHILFWLRQZULWHUVKDYHIRFXVHGRQ WKHUHDOPRIWKH LQQHUVSDFH WKDWLVWKHFRPSXWHUDLGHGH[SORUDWLRQRIWKH KXPDQ PLQG DQG KXPDQ FRQVFLRXVQHVV´ LQ 6HF WKH SRSXODULW\ RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVPLQWKH(8LQWKHODVWGHFDGHVRIWKHWKFHQWXU\WKHQOHG WRIXUWKHUFKDQJHVODWHURQZKHQE\WKHUHKDVEHHQDVWHDG\UHYHUVDO WRZDUGV DVVLPLODWLRQLVP LQ 6HF DQG³UHOLJLRXV XQLIRUPLW\´ LQ WKH ROGHU GD\V WKHQ OHG WR IXUWKHU FKDQJHV ODWHU RQ ZKHQ -RKQ /RFNH DQG RWKHUVDGYRFDWHG³UHOLJLRXVYROXQWDULVP´IRUWKH³VHSDUDWLRQRIFKXUFKDQG VWDWH´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
WK7KHVLV7KH3RVW+XPDQ&\FOLFDO 3URJUHVVLRQ $QGWKHWZHQW\ILIWKWKHVLVLVDERXWWKHUROHRI³SRVWKXPDQV´ZKLFK , RULJLQDOO\ SURSRVHG LQ P\ SUHYLRXV ERRNV VWDUWLQJ ZLWK WKH ILUVW ERRN WLWOHG7KH)XWXUHRI+XPDQ&LYLOL]DWLRQLQDQGDOORWKHUVDIWHUZDUGV $V DOUHDG\ SRLQWHG RXW LQ 6HF , QHHG WR HPSKDVL]H DV WKLV LV VRPHWKLQJWKDW,XVHGWRUHSHDWDOPRVWYHUEDWLP IURPP\SUHYLRXVERRNV WZRFODULILFDWLRQVKHUHDERXWWKHWHUP³SRVWKXPDQ´DVDQHRORJLVPLQP\ ZRUNV
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
)LUVWO\ WKH ZRUG ³SRVWKXPDQ´ KHUH VKRXOG QRW EH FRQIXVHG ZLWK DQRWKHUWHUPZKLFKORRNVVLPLODUEXWKDVDWRWDOO\GLIIHUHQWPHDQLQJLQWKH OLWHUDWXUH RI SRVWPRGHUQLVP QDPHO\ ³SRVWKXPDQLVP´²ZKLFK FRQVWLWXWHVDFULWLTXHRI³KXPDQLVP´DVWUDGLRQDOO\XQGHUVWRRGHVSHFLDOO\ WKRXJK QRW H[FOXVLYHO\ LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH LGHD RI SURJUHVV LQ VFLHQFH DQG UHDVRQLQWKH(QOLJKWHQPHQWSURMHFW :. 0\ ZRUNV UHMHFW WKH SURMHFW RI ³SRVWPRGHUQLVP´ DQG SURSRVH WKH IXWXUHZRUOGRIZKDW,RULJQDOO\FDOOHG³DIWHUSRVWPRGHUQLW\´LQ)+&DQG )&'IRULQVWDQFH $QG VHFRQGO\ WKH ZRUG ³SRVWKXPDQ´ KHUH VKRXOG DOVR QRW EH FRQIXVHG ZLWK D VLPLODU WHUP ZKLFK LV XVHG WR FKDPSLRQ WKH LGHRORJ\ RI WHFKQRORJ\ IRU WKH IXWXUH FRH[LVWHQFH EHWZHHQ KXPDQV DQG F\ERUJV LQ ³WUDQVKXPDQLVP´:.D ,QVWHDG P\ WHUP ³SRVWKXPDQ´ LQ UHODWLRQ WR ³SRVWKXPDQLVP´ DOVR UHMHFWV³WUDQVKXPDQLVP´HVSHFLDOO\WKRXJKQRWH[FOXVLYHO\LQUHODWLRQWR WKH SURPLVHV RI WHFKQRORJ\ DQG UHIHUV WR VRPHWKLQJ HOVH DOWRJHWKHU WKDW LVWKHIXWXUHH[WLQFWLRQRIKXPDQVDQGLWVSRVWKXPDQVXFFHVVRUVLQGHHS VSDFHDQGEH\RQGXQWRPXOWLYHUVHV 0\ FULWLTXH RI ³WUDQVKXPDQLVP´ ZDV PRUH H[WHQVLYHO\ HODEURDWHG LQ 6HFRI%(3(²MXVWDVP\FULWLTXHRIGLIIHUHQWIXWXULVWLFVFHQDULRVRI ILFWLRQDODUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHLQVFLHQFHILFWLRQZDVJLYHQLQ6HFRI )3+&20 :LWK WKHVH WZR FODULILFDWLRQV LQ PLQG DV VXPPDUL]HG LQ 7DEOH ²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
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
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²HVSHFLDOO\LQUHJDUGWRWKHIXWXUHHYROXWLRQVRIWKHPLQGHJ³WKH VXSHUVHVVLRQ FRPSXWLQJ´ ³PHWDPRUSKLF KXPRU´ ³WKH FRQWUDULDQ SHUVRQDOLW\´³WKHK\SHUPDUWLDOERG\´³WKHK\SHUVH[XDOERG\´³IORDWLQJ FRQVFLRXVQHVV´ ³K\SHUVSDWLDO FRQVFLRXVQHVV´ ³WKLQNLQJ PDFKLQHV´ ³XQIROGLQJ XQFRQVFLRXVQHVV´ ³WKLQNLQJ URERWV´ ³JHQHWLFDOO\ DOWHUHG VXSHULRUEHLQJV´³F\ERUJV´DQGRWKHUV RIQDWXUHHJ³WUDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\ DUFKLWHFWXUH´ ³FUHDWLRQDO FKHPLVWU\´ ³PXOWLODWHUDO VRXQG´ ³UHVHWWOHPHQW JHRORJ\´ ³SRVWFRVPRORJ\´ ³WKHDOWHUDWLRQRI VSDFHWLPH´³WKHFUHDWLRQ RI QHZ PDWWHUHQHUJ\´ ³VHOHFWLYH JHRPHWU\´ DQG WKH OLNH RI VRFLHW\ HJ ³UHIOHFWLYH FULPLQRORJ\´ ³LQWHUYHQWLYHUHVKDSLQJ JHRJUDSK\´ ³GHWDFKHG JDPEOLQJ´ ³KHWHURGR[ HGXFDWLRQ´ ³PXOWLIDFHWHG ZDU DQG SHDFH´³YLUWXDORUJDQL]DWLRQV´GLIIHUHQWYHUVLRQVRI³SRVWFDSLWDOLVP´DQG ³SRVWGHPRFUDF\´ WKH PRYHPHQW RI ³F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ´ DW ERWK VWUXFWXUDODQGV\VWHPLFOHYHOV³DPELYDOHQWWHFKQRORJ\´DQGVRIRUWK DQG RI FXOWXUH HJ ³LQWHUDFWLYH VHPDQWLFV´ ³WUDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\ SHUIRUPLQJ DUWV´ ³FRPSDUDWLYHLPSDUWLDO OLWHUDWXUH´ ³SRVWKXPDQ PLQG JDPHV´ ³FRPSDUDWLYHVXEVWLWXWLYH UHOLJLRQ´ ³SRVWHWKLFV´ ³SRVWFLYLOL]DWLRQ´ ³WUDQVIRUPDWLYH DHVWKHWLF H[SHULHQFH´ ³FRQWUDVWLYH PDWKHPDWLFDOORJLF´ DQG WKH ZKDWQRW LQ KLVWRU\ HJ ³PXOWLIROG KLVWRU\´ WKH DJH RI ³DIWHU SRVWPRGHUQLW\´ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI P\ DSSURDFKHV LQ UHODWLRQ WR PHWKRGRORJ\ HJ ³VRSKLVWLFDWHG PHWKRGRORJLDO KROLVP´ ³FULWLFDO GLDOHFWLF IRUPDO VFLHQFH´ ³FRPSOH[ GDWD DQDO\VLV´ HWF DQG RQWRORJ\ HJ³H[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFV´³FRQWUDVWLYHUDWLRQDOLW\´ 2I FRXUVH WKH H[DPSOHV DV OLVWHG DERYH DUH QRW H[KDXVWLYH EXW LOOXVWUDWLYHVLQFHP\QXPHURXVERRNVKDYHZRUNHGRXWPDQ\RWKHUYLVLRQV DV DOUHDG\ URXJKO\ VXPPDUL]HG LQ 6HF DQG 6HF 0DQ\ WKRXJK QRW DOO RI P\ YLVLRQV RQ WKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\ FXOWXUH KLVWRU\ PHWKRGRORJ\DQGRQWRORJ\DVFLWHGDERYH DUHVXPPDUL]HGLQWKHWDEOHV DVVKRZQLQ&KDSWHU2QHDQG&KDSWHU)RXUHVSHFLDOO\LQ7DEOHDERXW P\RULJLQDOWKHRULHVRQQXPHURXVWRSLFV $QG ILQDOO\ RU ILIWKO\ WKH SRVWKXPDQ F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ LQ WKH VWXG\RIPLJUDWLRQZLOOOHDUQIURPP\WKHRU\RIWKHF\FOLFDOSURJUHVVLRQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
RIPLJUDWLRQLQUHJDUGWRWKHQHHGWRJREH\RQG6DPHQHVVDQG2WKHUQHVV DVIXUWKHUHODERUDWHGLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQ
7RZDUGVWKH3RVW+XPDQ&\FOLFDO3URJUHVVLRQ 7KLV ³SRVWKXPDQ´ F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI PLJUDWLRQ WR WUDQVFHQG ERWK 6DPHQHVV DQG 2WKHUV FDQ EH XQGHUVWRRG LQ WHUPV RI QLQH JUHDW IXWXUHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVRI PLJUDWLRQ LQUHODWLRQWRWKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\DQGFXOWXUH²DVH[SODLQHGEHORZDQGVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH
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³QHZ JRDOV´ ZLOO JLYH IXWXUH DGYDQFHG KXPDQV DQG ODWHU WKHLU VXFFHVVRUV QDPHO\ WKH SRVWKXPDQV GLIIHUHQW PRWLYDWLRQV WR PLJUDWHLQDZD\WKDWFXUUHQWKXPDQVFDQQRW 7KHUH DUH DOUHDG\ VRPH LQGLFDWLRQV WKDW WKH IXWXUH RI PLJUDWLRQ LV PRYLQJWRZDUGWKLVGLUHFWLRQ &RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQWKH GLIIHUHQW³JRDOV´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²WKLVIXWXUHTXHVWIRUQHZJRDOVVKRXOGDOVREHXQGHUVWRRG
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
LQUHODWLRQWRP\SUHYLRXVZRUNVRQWKHIXWXUH³SRVWKXPDQ´VXSHUVHVVLRQ RI WKH KXPDQ PLQG IURP WKH FRPELQHG SHUVSHFWLYHV RI WKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\ DQG FXOWXUH²ZLWK JRRG H[DPSOHV OLNH ³WKH VXSHUVHVVLRQ FRPSXWLQJ´ ³PHWDPRUSKLF KXPRU´ ³WKH FRQWUDULDQ SHUVRQDOLW\´ ³WKH K\SHUPDUWLDO ERG\´ ³WKH K\SHUVH[XDO ERG\´ ³IORDWLQJ FRQVFLRXVQHVV´ ³K\SHUVSDWLDO FRQVFLRXVQHVV´ ³WKLQNLQJ PDFKLQHV´ ³XQIROGLQJ XQFRQVFLRXVQHVV´³WKLQNLQJURERWV´³JHQHWLFDOO\DOWHUHGVXSHULRUEHLQJV´ ³F\ERUJV´DQGRWKHUV ,QDQ\HYHQWDOOWKHVHDUHMXVWVRPHLOOXVWUDWLYHUHODWLYHO\SULPLWLYH H[DPSOHVLQRXUWLPHRIFRXUVHEXWWKHLPSRUWDQWSRLQWWRUHPHPEHUKHUH LVWKDWWKHVHDUFKIRUGLIIHUHQWQHZJRDOVZLOOIXUWKHUWUDQVIRUPPLJUDWLRQ DWWKHPRUHDGYDQFHGOHYHOLQWKHSRVWKXPDQIXWXUHWKDWWKHKXPDQZRUOG KDVQHYHUNQRZQ 7KH6HFRQG*UHDW)XWXUH7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRI0LJUDWLRQ 7KH VHFRQG JUHDW IXWXUH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI PLJUDWLRQ LQ WKH SRVW KXPDQ HUD FRQFHUQV ZKDW , RULJLQDOO\ FDOO QHZ PHDQV LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH PLQG 7KLV TXHVW IRU ³QHZ PHDQV´ ZLOO JLYH IXWXUH DGYDQFHG KXPDQV DQG ODWHUWKHLUVXFFHVVRUVQDPHO\WKHSRVWKXPDQVWKHFDSDFLW\WRILQGQRYHO RSWLRQV WR DFKLHYH WKH JRDOV RI PLJUDWLRQ LQ D ZD\ WKDW FXUUHQW KXPDQV FDQQRW 7KHUH DUH DOUHDG\ VRPH LQGLFDWLRQV WKDW WKH IXWXUH RI PLJUDWLRQ LV PRYLQJWRZDUGWKLVGLUHFWLRQ &RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQWKHGLIIHUHQW³PHDQV´DVDOUHDG\VHHQLQWKH KLVWRU\ RI PLJUDWLRQ VXFK DV WKH ³RUFKHVWUDWHG PRYHPHQW RI FHOOV´ 6HF EHQHILFLDOPXWDWLRQVWRHQKDQFHVXULYDO6HF ELUGQDYLJDWLRQ VNLOOV6HF HPLJUDWLRQUHVWULFWLRQVIRUFRQWURO6HF WKHXVH RI OHJDO WRROV DJDLQVW LPPLJUDQWV 6HF LQWHUPDUULDJH IRU DVVLPLODWLRQ 6HF WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI PRELOH REMHFWV IRU DUW 6HF WKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIDZLQHLQGXVWU\E\WKH+XJXHQRWVLQWKH'XWFK FRORQ\ DW WKH &DSH 6HF WKH XVH RI GLIIHUHQW PHDVXUHPHQWV WR SUHGLFWHQYLURQPHQWDOGHJUDGDWLRQ6HF VHHGGLVSHUVDOE\KXPDQV 6HF WKHDELOLW\RIGLDVSRUDWRLQIOXHQFHWKHLUKRPHODQG VGRPHVWLF SROLWLFV6HF GLIIHUHQWPHWKRGVIRUVSDFHFRORQL]DWLRQ6HF WKH DELOLW\ WR PDLQWDLQ RQH¶V FXOWXUDO XQLTXHQHVV 6HF DQG WKH DELOLW\WRFKRRVHRQH¶VUHOLJLRQ6HF IRULQVWDQFH $OO WKHVH DUH MXVW VRPH LOOXVWUDWLYH UHODWLYHO\ SULPLWLYH H[DPSOHV LQ RXU WLPH RI FRXUVH EXW WKH LPSRUWDQW SRLQW WR UHPHPEHU KHUH LV WKDW WKH VHDUFK IRU GLIIHUHQW QHZ DELOLWLHV ZLOO IXUWKHU WUDQVIRUP PLJUDWLRQ DW WKH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
PRUH DGYDQFHG OHYHO LQ WKH SRVWKXPDQ IXWXUH WKDW WKH KXPDQ ZRUOG KDV QHYHUNQRZQ 7KH7KLUG*UHDW)XWXUH7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRI0LJUDWLRQ 7KHWKLUGJUHDWIXWXUHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRI PLJUDWLRQLQWKHSRVWKXPDQ HUDFRQFHUQVZKDW,RULJLQDOO\FDOOQHZFRPSDULVRQVLQUHODWLRQWRQDWXUH 7KLVVHDUFKIRU³QHZFRPSDULVRQV´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³QHZLQWHJUDWLRQV´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
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
6HF DQGWKHFKDOOHQJHWRFRSHZLWKVXUYLYDOLQVSDFH6HF IRULQVWDQFH 0RUH LPSRUWDQWO\ WKLV IXWXUH TXHVW IRU QHZ LQWHJUDWLRQV VKRXOG DOVR EH XQGHUVWRRG LQ UHODWLRQ WR P\ SUHYLRXV ZRUNV RQ WKH IXWXUH ³SRVW KXPDQ´ DGYHQWXUHV LQWR GLIIHUHQW GLPHQVLRQV RI VSDFHWLPH XQWR PXOWLYHUVHV IURP WKH FRPELQHG SHUVSHFWLYHV RI WKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\ DQG FXOWXUH²ZLWK JRRG H[DPSOHV OLNH ³WKH DOWHUDWLRQ RI VSDFHWLPH´ 7DEOH DQG 7DEOH ³PXOWLYHUVHV´ 7DEOH DQG 7DEOH ³K\SHUVSDFH´ 7DEOH DQG 7DEOH ³WLPH WUDYHO´ 7DEOH DQG 7DEOH DQGRWKHUV ,Q DGGLWLRQ LQ P\ SUHYLRXV ERRN WLWOHG 7KH )XWXUH RI 3RVW+XPDQ *HRORJ\ ,DOUHDG\HQYLVLRQHGWKHWKUHHJUHDWIXWXUHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQV RI JHRORJ\ QDPHO\ ³VRODU JHRORJ\´ ³JDODFWLF JHRORJ\´ DQG ³FRVPLF JHRORJ\´ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI P\ ³UHVHWWOHPHQW WKHRU\ RI JHRORJ\´ LQ WKDW KXPDQV DQG ODWHU SRVWKXPDQV ZLOO H[SORUH DQG PLJUDWH WR RWKHU SODQHWV VRODUV\VWHPVJDOD[LHVDQGFRVPRVLQWKHORQJKDXO 7KHQ LQ DQRWKHU ERRN RI PLQH WLWOHG 7KH )XWXUH RI 3RVW+XPDQ *HRJUDSK\ , OLQNHG WKH WZR ERRNV WRJHWKHU VLQFH JHRJUDSK\ KDV PXFKWROHDUQIURPJHRORJ\DVLQ³SK\VLFDOJHRJUDSK\´ZKLFKDVDOUHDG\ LQWURGXFHGLQ6HFRI)3+*(2*UHOLHVKHDYLO\RQWKHHDUWKVFLHQFHV DQGGLVFXVVHGWKHVHDUFKIRU³QHZH[SORUDWLRQV´LQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHWKUHH IRUPVRIHQYLURQPHQWVRXWVLGHWKHSODQHW(DUWKQDPHO\ZKDW,RULJLQDOO\ FDOOHG ³VRODU JHRJUDSK\´ ³JDODFWLF JHRJUDSK\´ DQG ³FRVPLF JHRJUDSK\´²DV D IXUWKHU HODERUDWLRQ RI WKH WKUHH JUHDW IXWXUH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQVRIJHRORJ\LQ)3+*(2/ :LWK WKLV EDFNJURXQG RI WKHVH SUHYLRXV ERRNV RI PLQH WKH IXWXUH LQWHJUDWLRQVLQWKHFRQWH[WRIPLJUDWLRQZLOODOVRXQGHUJRGLIIHUHQWIRUPV QDPHO\LQWKHDEVHQFHRIEHWWHUZRUGVZKDW,ZDQWWRFDOOKHUH 6RODU0LJUDWLRQ *DODFWLF0LJUDWLRQ &OXVWHU\0LJUDWLRQ &RVPLF0LJUDWLRQ 0XOWLYHUVDO0LJUDWLRQ 7KHVH IRUPV DUH D IXUWKHU H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH WKUHH JUHDW IXWXUH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV RI JHRORJ\ LQ )3+*(2/ DQG RI JHRJUDSK\ LQ )3+*(2* WRWKHUHDOPRIPLJUDWLRQ 7KLVH[WHQVLRQLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKP\RWKHUWKHRU\QDPHO\³WKHWKHRU\ RI WKH F\FOLFDO SURJUHVVLRQ RI V\VWHP LQWHJUDWLRQ DQG IUDJPHQWDWLRQ´ LQ
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
)&' ²DWWKHVRFLDOV\VWHPLFOHYHODVDOUHDG\FODULILHGLQ6HF DQGVKRZQEHORZ /RFDOĺ5HJLRQDOĺ*OREDOĺ6RODUĺ *DODFWLFĺ&OXVWHU\«ĺ0XOWLYHUVDO $OO WKHVH DUH MXVW VRPH LOOXVWUDWLYH UHODWLYHO\ SULPLWLYH H[DPSOHV LQ RXU WLPHRIFRXUVHEXWWKHLPSRUWDQWSRLQWWRUHPHPEHUKHUHLVWKDWWKHVHDUFK IRUGLIIHUHQWQHZLQWHJUDWLRQVZLOOIXUWKHUWUDQVIRUPPLJUDWLRQDWWKHPRUH DGYDQFHGOHYHOLQWKHSRVWKXPDQ IXWXUH WKDWWKH KXPDQ ZRUOGKDV QHYHU NQRZQ 7KH)LIWK*UHDW)XWXUH7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRI0LJUDWLRQ 7KH ILIWK JUHDW IXWXUH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI PLJUDWLRQ LQ WKH SRVWKXPDQ HUDFRQFHUQVZKDW,RULJLQDOO\FDOOQHZSUD[HVLQUHODWLRQWRVRFLHW\ 7KLV VHDUFK IRU ³QHZ SUD[HV´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³IUHHULGHU´SUREOHP6HF WKH&LYLO5LJKWV0RYHPHQWV6HF DQG WKH SROLWLFV RI ³H[WUHPH OHJDOLVP RI WKH 3XULWDQV´ 6HF IRU LQVWDQFH $OO WKHVH DUH MXVW VRPH LOOXVWUDWLYH UHODWLYHO\ SULPLWLYH H[DPSOHV LQ RXU WLPH RI FRXUVH EXW WKH LPSRUWDQW SRLQW WR UHPHPEHU KHUH LV WKDW WKH VHDUFK IRU GLIIHUHQW QHZ SUD[HV ZLOO IXUWKHU WUDQVIRUP PLJUDWLRQ DW WKH PRUH DGYDQFHG OHYHO LQ WKH SRVWKXPDQ IXWXUH WKDW WKH KXPDQ ZRUOG KDV QHYHUNQRZQ 7KH6L[WK*UHDW)XWXUH7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRI0LJUDWLRQ 7KHVL[WKJUHDWIXWXUHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIPLJUDWLRQLQWKHSRVWKXPDQ HUDFRQFHUQVZKDW,RULJLQDOO\FDOOQHZWHFKQRORJLHVLQUHODWLRQWRVRFLHW\
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7KLVVHDUFKIRU³QHZWHFKQRORJLHV´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²DOOWKHVHDUHMXVWVRPHLOOXVWUDWLYHUHODWLYHO\SULPLWLYH H[DPSOHVLQRXUWLPHRIFRXUVHEXWWKHLPSRUWDQWSRLQWWRUHPHPEHUKHUH LVWKDWWKHVHDUFKIRUQHZWHFKQRORJLHVZLOOIXUWKHUWUDQVIRUPPLJUDWLRQDW WKH PRUH DGYDQFHG OHYHO LQ WKH SRVWKXPDQ IXWXUH WKDW WKH KXPDQ ZRUOG KDVQHYHUNQRZQ 7KH6HYHQWK*UHDW)XWXUH7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRI0LJUDWLRQ 7KH VHYHQWK JUHDW IXWXUH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI PLJUDWLRQ LQ WKH SRVW KXPDQHUDFRQFHUQVZKDW,RULJLQDOO\FDOOQHZVWUDWLILFDWLRQVLQUHODWLRQWR VRFLHW\ 7KLV HPHUJHQFH RI ³QHZ VWUDWLILFDWLRQV´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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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³QHZ VXEILHOGV´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³QHZ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV´ ZLOO JLYH IXWXUH DGYDQFHG KXPDQVDQGODWHUWKHLUVXFFHVVRUVQDPHO\WKHSRVWKXPDQVWKHDELOLW\WR FRPH XS ZLWK GLIIHUHQW HYDOXDWLRQV DQG YLHZV DERXW PLJUDWLRQ LQ D ZD\ WKDWFXUUHQWKXPDQVFDQQRW
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7KHUH DUH DOUHDG\ VRPH LQGLFDWLRQV WKDW WKH IXWXUH RI PLJUDWLRQ LV PRYLQJWRZDUGWKLVGLUHFWLRQ &RQVLGHUIRULOOXVWUDWLRQWKHGLIIHUHQWLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVDVDOUHDG\VHHQ LQWKHKLVWRU\RIPLJUDWLRQVXFKDVWKHPHPEUDQHIORZPRGHO6HF 6HF WKHQHEXODUK\SRWKHVLV6HF HQGRJHQRXVIDFWRUV6HF WKH SXVK IDFWRUV 6HF WKH SXOO IDFWRUV 6HF DVVLPLODWLRQLVP6HF WKHSRO\FKURPHVW\OH6HF EUDLQZDVWH IURPEUDLQJDLQ6HF WKHWKHRU\RIUHODWLYHGHSULYDWLRQ6HF WKH ³PD[LPDOLVW´ VFKRRO E\ 1RUPDQ 0\HUV 6HF WKH -DQ]HQ &RQQHOOK\SRWKHVLV6HF WKHLGHDRI³GXDOOR\DOW\´6HF WKH K\SRWKHVLV RI WKH $OFXELHUUH GULYH 6HF PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP 6HF DQGUHOLJLRXVYROXQWDULVP6HF IRULQVWDQFH $OO WKHVH DUH MXVW VRPH LOOXVWUDWLYH UHODWLYHO\ SULPLWLYH H[DPSOHV LQ RXU WLPH RI FRXUVH EXW WKH LPSRUWDQW SRLQW WR UHPHPEHU KHUH LV WKDW WKH VHDUFKIRUQHZLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVZLOOIXUWKHUWUDQVIRUPPLJUDWLRQDWWKHPRUH DGYDQFHGOHYHOLQWKHSRVWKXPDQ IXWXUH WKDWWKH KXPDQ ZRUOGKDV QHYHU NQRZQ
(QRUPRXV,PSOLFDWLRQV 7KHVH QLQH JUHDW IXWXUH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV RI WKH IXWXUH RI PLJUDWLRQ KDYH HQRUPRXV LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU VRPH GHHS TXHVWLRQV ZKLFK KDYH FKDOOHQJHGVRPHRIWKHEHVWPLQGVLQWKHKLVWRU\RIPLJUDWLRQ )RULOOXVWUDWLRQFRQVLGHUWKHIROORZLQJGHHSTXHVWLRQVLQWKHVWXG\RI PLJUDWLRQDVDOUHDG\DGGUHVVHGLQWKLVERRN $UHKXPDQVUHDOO\³WKH PRVWFRPSRVLWHRIDOOFUHDWXUHV´VRWKDW WKH LGHDO RI ³WKH VPHOWLQJSRW´ LV HQWLUHO\ IHDVLEOH DQG QHFHVVDULO\ GHVLUDEOHDV5DOSK:DOGR(PHUVRQ RQFHDUJXHG" +DV PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP UHDOO\ ³IDLOHG WRWDOO\´ DV *HUPDQ &KDQFHOORU $QJHOD0HUNHOFODLPHGLQ"-6H[WRQ ,V ³WKH IUHHGRP WR WUDYHO´ QHFHVVDULO\ GHVLUDEOH DV VKRZQ LQ LWV JORULILFDWLRQE\WKH:HVWLQLWVLGHRORJLFDOFODVKZLWKWKH(DVWHUQ%ORF GXULQJWKH&ROG:DU²RULVLWVYDOXHKLVWRULFDOO\FRQWLQJHQWDVVKRZQ E\ WKH QHZ EDUULHUV HUHFWHG E\ WKH :HVW LWVHOI WR UHSODFH WKH ,URQ &XUWDLQDIWHUWKH&ROG:DU"$%|FNHU 4XHVWLRQV DQG GLVDJUHHPHQWV OLNH WKLV ZLOO UHFHLYH QHZ DQVZHUV LQ WKH IXWXUHKLVWRU\RIDGYDQFHGKXPDQDQGODWHUSRVWKXPDQPLJUDWLRQDWOHDVW
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
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²DVWKLVLVVRPHWKLQJWKDW,KDYHZDUQHGWLPHDQGDJDLQLQDOORI P\SUHYLRXVERRNVDOPRVWYHUEDWLP ,QDQ\HYHQWDV,VRRIWHQVWUHVVHGLQP\SUHYLRXVERRNVLWLVQRWXS WRXVFXUUHQWKXPDQVWRGHFLGHZKHWKHURUQRWRUWRZKDWH[WHQWWKHSRVW KXPDQIXWXUHRIPLJUDWLRQZLOOEHIRUEHWWHUDQGIRUZRUVHEHFDXVHLWZLOO EHMXGJHGE\WKHYDOXHVDQGEHOLHIVRIIXWXUHSRVWKXPDQVRQHDUWKDQGLQ GHHSVSDFHXQWRPXOWLYHUVHV²LQDZD\WKDWWKHHQWLUHKLVWRU\RIWKHKXPDQ ZRUOGKDVQHYHUNQRZQ 7R XQGHUVWDQG WKHVH HQRUPRXV LPSOLFDWLRQV KHOSV XV VHH OLJKW DW WKH HQGRIWKHWXQQHORIWKHIXWXUHRIPLJUDWLRQ²DQGLWVSRVWKXPDQIDWH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH6RSKLVWLFDWHG0HWKRGRORJLFDO+ROLVP 3DUW, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ³0\ PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP LPSOLHV WKH SDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\ SULQFLSOH LQ WKHRQWRORJ\RIH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVVHHWKHWDEOHRQWKHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\ SULQFLSOHIRUVXPPDU\ ZKLFKLVDJDLQVWWKHYDULHWLHVRID UHGXFWLRQLVP DQG E UHYHUVHUHGXFWLRQLVP LQ UHODWLRQ WR L FRQFHSW LL WKHRU\ LLL PHWKRGRORJ\DQGLY RQWRORJ\´)& ³>0@\ PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP KHUH LV QRW RSSRVHG WR PHWKRGRORJLFDO LQGLYLGXDOLVP EXW LQFOXGHV LW DQG IRU WKDW PDWWHU RWKHU PHWKRGRORJLHV WRR «´ )3+& )RU WKLV UHDVRQ DQG RWKHUV WRR DV VXPPDUL]HG KHUHDIWHU P\ YHUVLRQ RI PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP LV VRSKLVWLFDWHG²QRW YXOJDUDVVRPHWLPHVXVHGE\LQDSWVFKRODUVXVLQJWKHVDPHWHUP)& ³>0@\PHWKRGRORJLFDOKROLVPGRHVQRWGHPRFUDWLFDOO\SUHVXPHWKDWDOO OHYHOVDUHHTXDOO\YDOLGDVDOOOHYHOVDUHQRWFUHDWHGHTXDO,QRWKHUZRUGV LQUHODWLRQ WRLVVXH;OHYHO $ PD\EH PRUHUHOHYDQWWKDQOHYHO%EXWLQ UHODWLRQWR0@\PHWKRGRORJLFDOKROLVPGRHVQRWPDNHDQ\DSULRULSRVWXODWLRQWKDW WKHUHPXVWEHDGHILQLWHDQGIRUWKDWPDWWHULQGHILQLWH QXPEHURIOHYHOV´ LQDQ\DQDO\VLV)3+& 1RUGRHVLWGRJPDWLFDOO\UHTXLUHWKDWWKHUHPXVW EHDFHUWDLQFRPELQDWLRQRIOHYHOVRIDQDO\VLVLQDJLYHQLQTXLU\)& ³>0@HWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP LQ P\ XVDJH GRHV QRW DVVXPH WKDW DOO OHYHOV«FDQ QHFHVVDULO\EHLQWHJUDWHGVLQFH PHWKRGRORJLFDOKROLVPLVQRW DLPHGWRVHDUFKIRUWKHKRO\JUDLORI DQLQWHJUDOWKHRU\« DVLVWKHFDVH IRU :LOEHU ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV LW DOORZV WKDW VRPHWLPHV VRPH OHYHOV PD\ H[SHULHQFH LUUHGXFLEOH JDSV EHWZHHQ WKHP WR EH XQGHUVWRRG DW EHVW DV HPSLULFDOFRUUHODWLRQVQRWDVFDXVDOUHODWLRQV«´)3+& ³>'@LIIHUHQW OHYHOV PD\ RYHUODS DQG HYHQ LQWHUDFW ZLWK HDFK RWKHU LQ D JLYHQFRQWH[WEXWVRPHWLPHVPD\QRW DQGWKHIDFWWKDW,HYHQSURSRVHG GLIIHUHQW ZD\V RI UHFODVVLI\LQJ WKH OHYHOV ZKHQHYHU QHHGHG LQ )'& UHLQIRUFHV WKLV SRLQW«7KH GXDO GDQJHU KHUH LV HLWKHU IRUFHIXOO\ PDNLQJ GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV LQWHUDFW ZKHQ WKH\ DUH MXVW GLIIHUHQW RU PHWDSKRULFDOO\ VSHDNLQJ DSSOHV DQG RUDQJHV RU LQDSSURSULDWHO\ LJQRULQJ WKHLU LQWHUDFWLRQVZKHQVRPHVLWXDWLRQVLQVWHDGUHTXLUHWKHP´)3+& ³>7@R XQGHUVWDQG GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV IURP WKHLU RZQ XQLTXH SHUVSHFWLYHV DV UHTXLUHG E\ P\ PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP LV QRW WKH VDPH DV WU\LQJ WR UHGXFH WKHP WR D SUHIHUUHG OHYHO LQ WKH SURFHVV RI OHDUQLQJ IURP RWKHU OHYHOV7KLVVHFRQGNLQGRIPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\ZRUNLVQRWJHQXLQHDQGGRHV QR MXVWLFH WR WKH XQLTXH FRPSOH[LWLHV DQG PHULWV LQKHUHQW DW HDFK OHYHO´ )3+& BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH6RSKLVWLFDWHG0HWKRGRORJLFDO+ROLVP 3DUW,,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ³>0\@ PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP ZDONV D ILQH OLQH EHWZHHQ WKH DUWLILFLDO FODVVLILFDWLRQVHSDUDWLRQ RIOHYHOVDQGWKHVLPXOWDQHRXVLQFRUSRUDWLRQRI WKHP LI RQO\ IRU WKH VDNH RI KXPDQ VFKRODUO\ HQGHDYRU ,W VKRXOG EH UHPLQGHG WKDW QDWXUH GRHV QRW LPSRVH XSRQ LWVHOI WKH DFDGHPLF FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI WKH OHYHOV RI DQDO\VLV DV KXPDQV KDYH 7KH HQWHUSULVH RI FODVVLILFDWLRQLVWKHUHIRUHDQWKURSRFHQWULF´)3+& ³>0@\ PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP DGYRFDWHV QHLWKHU HSLVWHPLF VXEMHFWLYLVP QRU HSLVWHPLF QRQVXEMHFWLYLVP HJ UHDOLVP LGHDOLVP DQG KLVWRULFLVP QHLWKHUHSLVWHPLFUHODWLYLVPHJVXEMHFWLYLVPKLVWRULFLVP QRUHSLVWHPLF DEVROXWLVP HJ UHDOLVP SRVLWLYLVP QHLWKHU HSLVWHPLF UHGXFWLRQLVP QRU HSLVWHPLF HPHUJHQFLVP DQG QHLWKHU HSLVWHPLF REMHFWLYLVP HJ UHDOLVP LGHDOLVP QRU HSLVWHPLF KLVWRULFLVP«1HLWKHU GRHV PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVPLQP\XVDJHDFFHSWWKHIDOVHPHWDFRQFHSWXDOGLFKRWRP\EHWZHHQ QRPLQDOLVP DQG UHDOLVP«7KHVH IDOVH GLFKRWRPLHV«DUH WR EH WUDQVFHQGHG,QRWKHUZRUGVPHWKRGRORJLFDOKROLVPGRHVQRWIXOO\DFFHSW HSLVWHPLFUHDOLVPSRVLWLYLVP DIRUPRIHSLVWHPLFLGHDOLVP KLVWRULFLVP VXEMHFWLYLVPDQGUHGXFWLRQLVPLQHSLVWHPRORJ\DQGSKLORVRSK\RIVFLHQFH EXW OHDUQV IURP WKH VWUHQJWKV DQG ZHDNQHVVHV RI DOO RI WKH RSSRVLQJ DSSURDFKHVZLWKRXWVLGLQJZLWKDQ\RIWKHP«´)3+& ³6RSKLVWLFDWHG PHWKRGRORJLFDO KROLVP LV VXEMHFW WR WKH FRQVWUDLQWV DV LPSRVHGE\WKHV\QWD[RIH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFVHJWKHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\ SULQFLSOH DQG WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ SULQFLSOH (YHQ LQ SUHGLFWDELOLW\ RXWFRPHV DUH VXEMHFW WR XQFHUWDLQW\ WKH GHJUHH RI ZKLFK YDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH´)& BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH6RSKLVWLFDWHG0HWKRGRORJLFDO+ROLVP 3DUW,9 BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ³6RSKLVWLFDWHGPHWKRGRORJLFDOKROLVP²ZKHQDSSOLHGHVSHFLDOO\WKRXJK QRW H[FOXVLYHO\ DV LOOXVWUDWHG LQ P\ QXPHURXV ZRUNV²FDQ HQULFK WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIUHDOLW\LQVRPHGLVWLQFWLYHZD\V+HUHDUHWKUHHH[DPSOHV DVUHYHDOHGLQHDFKRIP\ERRNV ´)3+&7)3+/ ²³)LUVWO\ LW SURYLGHV D FRPSUHKHQVLYH DQDO\VLV RI D VXEMHFW PDWWHU IURP ZKLFK PXFK FDQ EH OHDUQHG DERXW UHDOLW\´ ³ERWK LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKHSHUVSHFWLYHVRIWKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\DQGFXOWXUHDQG DOVRLQ UHODWLRQWRDQHZFODVVLILFDWLRQRIWKHVXEMHFWPDWWHU´ ²³6HFRQGO\ LW VXJJHVWV VRPH YLVLRQV RI WKH IXWXUH LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VXEMHFWPDWWHULQTXHVWLRQ´ ²³$QG WKLUGO\ LW SURSRVHV VRPH LQVLJKWV RQ PHWDWKHRU\ HJ PHWKRGRORJ\DQGRQWRORJ\ LQJHQHUDO²ZLWKWKHFOHDUXQGHUVWDQGLQJ KRZHYHURIWKHGLOHPPDRIVSHFLILFYVJHQHUDORQWRORJ\DVVKRZQLQ WKH WDEOH RQ WKH V\QWD[ RI H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH GLOHPPD RI RQWRORJ\ )RU WKLV YHU\ UHDVRQ DOO RI WKHVH ZD\V DUH LPSRUWDQWZLWKRXWUHGXFLQJRQHLQWRWKHDQDO\VLVRIDQRWKHU´ ³,QWKHHQG P\ PHWDWKHRU\ERWKVRSKLVWLFDWHG PHWKRGRORJLFDOKROLVP DQG H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV VHUYHV DV D IRXQGDWLRQ WR XQLI\ DOO GRPDLQV RI NQRZOHGJH LQWR DQ XQLILHG WKHRU\ RI HYHU\WKLQJ E\ ZD\ RI VRPH RQWRORJLFDO SULQFLSOHV DQG WKH FRPSUHKHQVLYH SHUVSHFWLYHV RI WKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\ DQG FXOWXUH 7KLV LV VR ZLWKRXW FRPPLWLQJ WKH VLQV RI UHGXFWLRQLVP DQG UHYHUVHUHGXFWLRQLVP DV RIWHQ VHHQ LQ PDQ\ KROLVWLF DSSURDFKHVZLWKWKHIDGRIV\VHPVDSSURDFK²EHLWDERXWV\VWHPVWKHRU\ FKDRV WKHRU\ FRPSOH[LW\ WKHRU\ RU HOVH²DV D PRVW UHFHQW QRWRULRXV H[DPSOH ZKLFK,GHEXQNHGLQ7KH)XWXUHRI&RPSOH[LW\DQGDOVRLQ7KH )XWXUH RI 3RVW+XPDQ )RUPDO 6FLHQFH 0\ GLVWLQFWLYH DSSURDFK PDNHV JRRGXVHRIGLIIHUHQWVFKRROVRIWKRXJKWZLWKRXWIDYRULQJDQ\RIWKHPQRU WU\LQJWRLQWHJUDWHWKHPDVWKH\DUHQRWQHFHVVDULO\FRPSDWLEOHZLWKHDFK RWKHU VRDVWRDGMXVWIRUVXEMHFWLYLW\GLYHUVLW\FRQIOLFWDQGFRPSOH[LW\ IRU H[DPSOH ,Q WKLV VHQVH WKH ZRUG ³XQLILHG´ GRHV QRW KDYH WR PHDQ LQWHJUDWLYHDSSURDFKLQDQDUURZVHQVHQRUV\VWHPVDSSURDFKLQDEURDG RQHERWKRIZKLFK,UHMHFWZKLOHOHDUQLQJIURPWKHP´)3+)6)3+6 BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 6RXUFHV $ VXPPDU\ RI 6HF LQ )3+&²DQG DOVR IURP %11 )3+67 $/')&)3+&7DQGWKHUHVWRIDOORWKHUERRNVRIPLQH6HHWKHERRNV IRUPRUHGHWDLO
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH2Q5HGXFWLRQLVPDQG5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP 3DUW, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 7KH3DUWLDOLW\7RWDOLW\3ULQFLSOH ²7KHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\SULQFLSOHLQWKHRQWRORJ\RIH[LVWHQWLDOGLDOHFWLFV WDUJHWVDJDLQVWWKHYDULHWLHVRIUHGXFWLRQLVPDQGUHYHUVHUHGXFWLRQLVP DVDOUHDG\ZRUNHGRXWLQP\SUHYLRXVERRNV
$JDLQVWWKH9DULHWLHVRI5HGXFWLRQLVP ²&RQFHSWXDO5HGXFWLRQLVP 6RPH LOOXVWUDWLYH LQVWDQFHV LQYROYH P\ULDG GXDOLWLHV OLNH PLQG YV ERG\ VHOI YV ZRUOG GHPRFUDF\ YV QRQGHPRFUDF\ DQG WKH OLNH DVDOUHDG\DGGUHVVHGLQ)+&)3+&DQG%'3'IRULQVWDQFH ²7KHRUHWLFDO5HGXFWLRQLVP $ IDVFLQDWLQJ FDVH VWXG\ FRQFHUQV ZKDW , RULJLQDOO\ FDOOHG ³WKH IRXQGDWLRQ IDOODF\´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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH2Q5HGXFWLRQLVPDQG5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP 3DUW,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB $JDLQVWWKH9DULHWLHVRI5HGXFWLRQLVPFRQW G ²7KHRUHWLFDO5HGXFWLRQLVPFRQW¶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
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH2Q5HGXFWLRQLVPDQG5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP 3DUW,,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB $JDLQVWWKH9DULHWLHVRI5HGXFWLRQLVPFRQW G ²7KHRUHWLFDO5HGXFWLRQLVPFRQW¶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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH2Q5HGXFWLRQLVPDQG5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP 3DUW,9 BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB $JDLQVWWKH9DULHWLHVRI5HGXFWLRQLVPFRQW G ²7KHRUHWLFDO5HGXFWLRQLVPFRQW¶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
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH2Q5HGXFWLRQLVPDQG5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP 3DUW9 BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB $JDLQVWWKH9DULHWLHVRI5HGXFWLRQLVPFRQW G ²0HWKRGRORJLFDO5HGXFWLRQLVP $ JRRG LQVWDQFH FRQFHUQV WKH GHEDWH EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW YHUVLRQV RI TXDOLWDWLYH DQG TXDQWLWDWLYH PHWKRGV DV DOUHDG\ DQDO\]HG LQ )& DQGDOVR)+& ,Q)3+0/,H[DPLQHGVLPLODUUHGXFWLRQLVPWKLV WLPH LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH RQ PDWKHPDWLFDO ORJLF HJ WKH REVHVVLRQ ZLWKFRQVLVWHQF\VRXQGQHVVDQGFRPSOHWHQHVV $QGLQ)3+)6, DOVR H[SORUHG WKH SUREOHPV RI UHGXFWLRQLVP LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI IRUPDOVFLHQFHHJWKHDQDO\WLFDODUJXPHQW ²2QWRORJLFDO5HGXFWLRQLVP $Q H[FHOOHQW H[DPSOH LV WKH GHEDWH EHWZHHQ HPHUJHQWLVP DQG UHGXFWLRQLVP LQ FRPSOH[LW\ WKHRU\ DQG DOVR LQ SV\FKRORJ\ DV HODERUDWHGLQ)3+&LQWKHFRQWH[WRI%HLQJDQG%HFRPLQJ $JDLQVWWKH9DULHWLHVRI5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP ²&RQFHSWXDO5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP $Q\FRQFHSWRI³DUW´HJILQHDUWFDYHDUWRXWVLGHUDUWMXQNDUW LV GHHPHG DFFHSWDEOH LQ SRVWPRGHUQLVP DV DOUHDG\ DGGUHVVHG LQ &KRI)+& ²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³WKH FRPSURPLVH IDOODF\´ DV DQRWKHU JRRG LOOXVWUDWLRQ RI WKHRUHWLFDO UHYHUVHUHGXFWLRQLVP LQ PLVOHDGLQJO\ WUHDWLQJ ERWK JHQHWLF DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO DSSURDFKHV DVHTXDOO\YDOLG BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH2Q5HGXFWLRQLVPDQG5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP 3DUW9, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB $JDLQVWWKH9DULHWLHVRI5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVPFRQW G ²0HWKRGRORJLFDO5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP 7KHUH LV WKH ³DQ\WKLQJJRHV´ PHQWDOLW\ LQ SRVWPRGHUQLVP HJ GRLQJ DUW ZLWKRXW SUD[LV GRLQJ DUW ZLWK SUD[LV DQG GRLQJ DUW E\ VXEODWLRQ DV DQDO\]HG LQ &K RI )+& $QG LQ )3+)6 , DOVR H[SRVHG WKH SUREOHPV RI UHYHUVHUHGXFWLRQLVP LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI IRUPDOVFLHQFHLQUHODWLRQWRV\VWHPVWKHRU\ ²2QWRORJLFDO5HYHUVH5HGXFWLRQLVP 7KHUHDUHOLNHZLVHQRSULYLOHJHGRQWRORJ\DQGWKHGRRULVRSHQIRU DQ\WKLQJLQSRVWPRGHUQLVPHJWKHHTXDOVWDWXVRIWKHRQWRORJ\ RI %HLQJ YV WKDW RI %HFRPLQJ DV DOUHDG\ DGGUHVVHG LQ &K RI )+&²DQG DOVR LQ )3+& ,Q )$( , DOVR LQWURGXFHG DQRWKHU YHUVLRQ RI UHYHUVHUHGXFWLRQLVP WKDW LV ³WKH SOXUDOLVW IDOODF\´ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DHVWKHWLF H[SHULHQFH IRU LQVWDQFH² DOWKRXJK WKLV IDOODF\ KDV EHHQ FRPPLWWHG QRW H[FOXVLYHO\ LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH RQWRORJLFDO OHYHO EXW DOVR DW WKH FRQFHSWXDO WKHRUHWLFDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDORQHV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 6RXUFHV)URPP\SUHYLRXVERRNV
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH&RQFHSWRQRI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV 3DUW, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 6HWVDQG(OHPHQWV ²6HWV ([WKH6DPH ([WKH2WKHUV ²(OHPHQWV ([ZKLWHVLQWKFHQWXU\$PHULFDLQWKHVHWRI³WKH6DPH´ ([,UDTGXULQJWKH86LQYDVLRQLQLQWKHVHWRI³WKH 2WKHUV´ 5HODWLRQV2SHUDWLRQV)XQFWLRQV ²5HODWLRQVHJ³EHORQJV´³HTXDOVWR´³LVJUHDWHUWKDQ´ ([V\PPHWULFLQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKLQWKH6DPHRUWKH2WKHUV ([DV\PPHWULFLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQWKH6DPHDQGWKH2WKHUV ²2SHUDWLRQVHJ³DQG´³RU´³QRW´³LI«WKHQ´ ([LIWKH6DPHRSSUHVVHVWKH2WKHUVLWZLOODOVRRSSUHVVLWVHOI ([WKH6DPHLVQRWWKH2WKHUV ²)XQFWLRQVHJJRDOV ([WKH6DPHLVKHJHPRQLFLQUHODWLRQWRWKH2WKHUV 7UXWK9DOXHV ²³´LI7UXHLQ6\PEROLF/RJLF ([WKHSURSRVLWLRQWKDWLPSHULDO-DSDQZDVKHJHPRQLFWR&KLQD GXULQJ::,, ²³´LI)DOVHLQ6\PEROLF/RJLF ([WKHSURSRVLWLRQWKDW*UHQDGDLQYDGHG)UDQFHLQ ²³´ ³´LI%RWK7UXHDQG)DOVHLQ'LDOHFWLF/RJLF ([WKHSURSRVLWLRQWKDWWKHUDEELWGXFNSLFWXUHUHIHUVWRDGXFN ²³a´ ³a´LI1HLWKHU7UXH1RU)DOVHRU1$LQ'LDOHFWLF/RJLF ([WKHSURSRVLWLRQWKDW*RGUHDOO\H[LVWV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH&RQFHSWLRQRI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV 3DUW,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB $[LRPVDQG3RVWXODWHV ²$[LRPV ([WKHUHIOH[LYHD[LRP²³DQ\TXDQWLW\LVHTXDOWRLWVHOI´ ²3RVWXODWHV ([ WKH 666 SRVWXODWH²³LI WKH WKUHH VLGHV RI D WULDQJOH DUH FRQJUXHQWWRWKHLUFRUUHVSRQGLQJSDUWVWKHQWKHWULDQJOHVDUH FRQJUXHQW´ 7KHRUHPVDQG3ULQFLSOHV ²7KHRUHPVDQG3ULQFLSOHV LQ([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV ,Q5HODWLRQWR0HWKRG ±7KHIRUPDOQHVVLQIRUPDOQHVVSULQFLSOH ±7KHDEVROXWHQHVVUHODWLYHQHVVSULQFLSOH ±7KHSDUWLDOLW\WRWDOLW\SULQFLSOH ±7KHSUHGLFWDELOLW\XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\SULQFLSOH ±7KHH[SOLFDELOLW\LQH[SOLFDELOLW\SULQFLSOH ±7KHILFWLRQUHDOLW\SULQFLSOH ,Q5HODWLRQWR6WUXFWXUH ±7KHILQLWHQHVVWUDQVILQLWHQHVVSULQFLSOH ±7KHSUHFLVHQHVVYDJXHQHVVSULQFLSOH ±7KHVLPSOHQHVVFRPSOLFDWHGQHVVSULQFLSOH ±7KHRSHQQHVVKLGGHQQHVVSULQFLSOH ±7KHGHQVHQHVVHPSWLQHVVSULQFLSOH ,Q5HODWLRQWR3URFHVV ±7KHFKDQJHFRQVWDQF\SULQFLSOH ±7KHRUGHUFKDRVSULQFLSOH ±7KHVORZQHVVTXLFNQHVVSULQFLSOH ±7KHH[SDQVLRQFRQWUDFWLRQSULQFLSOH BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH&RQFHSWLRQRI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV 3DUW,,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 7KHRUHPVDQG3ULQFLSOHVFRQW¶G ²7KHRUHPVDQG3ULQFLSOHV LQ([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV ,Q5HODWLRQWR$JHQF\ ±7KHWKHRU\SUD[LVSULQFLSOH ±7KHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOH ±7KHHYROXWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQSULQFLSOH ±7KHV\PPHWU\DV\PPHWU\SULQFLSOH ±7KHVRIWQHVVKDUGQHVVSULQFLSOH ±7KHVHULRXVQHVVSOD\IXOQHVVSULQFLSOH ,Q5HODWLRQWR2XWFRPH ±7KHUHJUHVVLRQSURJUHVVLRQSULQFLSOH ±7KHVDPHGLIIHUHQFHSULQFLSOH ±7KHVWDELOLW\UHDFWLRQSULQFLSOH BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 1RWHV 7KH FDWHJRULHV DQG H[DPSOHV LQ HDFK DUH VROHO\ LOOXVWUDWLYH QRW H[KDXVWLYH 7KH FRPSDULVRQ LV DOVR UHODWLYH QRW DEVROXWH QRU DUH WKH\ PXWXDOO\H[FOXVLYH$VJHQHUDOLWLHVWKH\DOORZH[FHSWLRQV 6RXUFHV6WDUWLQJIURP&KRI%&3&DQGDOVRIURPRWKHUERRNVRIPLQH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR0HWKRG ²7KH)RUPDOQHVV,QIRUPDOQHVV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH)RUPDO5HTXLUHPHQWVRI/RJLFDO6\VWHPV 7KHIRUPDOUHTXLUHPHQWVRIDORJLFDOV\VWHPHJFRQVLVWHQF\ VRXQGQHVV DQG FRPSOHWHQHVV KDYH ERWK XVHIXOQHVV DQG QRQ XVHIXOQHVV WR WKH H[WHQW WKDW LI WKHUH DUH IRUPDO V\VWHPV UHTXLULQJ WKHP WKHUH DUH DOWHUQDWLYH RQHV ZKLFK GR QRW 7KXV LW GRHV QRW H[FOXGHFODVVLFDOORJLFVEXWVLPSO\JRHVEH\RQGERWKFODVVLFDODQG QRQFODVVLFDO ORJLFV ZKLOH OHDUQLQJ VRPHWKLQJ IURP HDFK 7KHUH LV QRIRUPDOQHVVZLWKRXWLQIRUPDOQHVV²DQGYLFHYHUVD )RU LQVWDQFH H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV FDQ PDNH XVH RI ERWK FODVVLFDO ORJLFV XQGHU FHUWDLQ FRQGLWLRQV HJ HVSHFLDOO\ WKRXJK QRW H[FOXVLYHO\ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH FOHDUFXW HWF DQG QRQFODVVLFDO ORJLFV XQGHU DOWHUQDWLYH FRQGLWLRQV HVSHFLDOO\ WKRXJK QRW H[FOXVLYHO\ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH ³XQNQRZQ´ ³LUUHOHYDQW´ ³DPELJXRXV´ ³SRVVLEOH´ ZLWK ³GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI WUXWK´ HPSLULFDOO\ LQFRQVLVWHQW LQ D GHVLUDEOHZD\HWF :.X )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ ORJLFDOQHVVQRQORJLFDOQHVV UDWLRQDOLW\ QRQUDWLRQDOLW\HWF 6RXUFHV)URP)3+0/)3++)3+*$0)3+6(0DQGP\ODWHU ERRNV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR0HWKRGFRQW¶G ²7KH$EVROXWHQHVV5HODWLYHQHVV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH0XOWLSOLFLW\RI7KLQJV 7KHUH LV WKH PXOWLSOLFLW\ RI WKLQJV LQ UHDOLW\ EH WKH\ DERXW HQWLWLHV TXDOLWLHV RU SURSHUWLHV DQG UHODWLRQVKLSV VXFK WKDW ZKDW LV DFFHSWDEOH IURP RQH VWDQGSRLQW PD\ QRW EH VR IURP DQRWKHU )RU LQVWDQFHLIWKHUHLVVRPHWKLQJDEVROXWHWKHUHLVOLNHZLVHVRPHWKLQJ UHODWLYH 7KHUH LV QR DEVROXWHQHVV ZLWKRXW UHODWLYHQHVV²DQG YLFH YHUVD %RWKDEVROXWHQHVVDQGUHODWLYHQHVVKHUHDUHDOVRUHOHYDQWWRGLIIHUHQW PRGDOLWLHV RIWHQ FLWHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH RQ RQWRORJ\ VXFK DV SRVVLELOLW\ HJ VRPHWKLQJ ³FDQ´ KDSSHQ DQG LWV RSSRVLWH HJ LPSRVVLELOLW\ SUREDELOLW\ HJ VRPHWKLQJ ³ZLOO´ KDSSHQ DQG LWV RSSRVLWH HJ LPSUREDELOLW\ DQG QHFHVVLW\ HJ VRPHWKLQJ ³VKRXOG´KDSSHQ DQGLWVRSSRVLWHHJFRQWLQJHQF\ )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ XQLIRUPLW\GLYHUVLW\ LQWHUQDOQHVV H[WHUQDOQHVVLPPDQHQFHWUDQVFHQGHQFHLQGHSHQGHQFHGHSHQGHQFH LVRODWHGQHVVLQWHUFRQQHFWLYHQHVV DXWRQRP\LQWHUGHSHQGHQF\ XQLYHUVDOQHVVUHODWLYHQHVVHWF 6RXUFHV)URP)3+.6HHDOVRP\ODWHUERRNV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW,,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR0HWKRGFRQW¶G ²7KH3DUWLDOLW\7RWDOLW\3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH5HODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ:KROHDQG3DUWV 7KHZKROHLVQRWWKHVXPRIWKHSDUWV7KHUHLVQRSDUWLDOLW\ZLWKRXW WRWDOLW\²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
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW,9 BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR0HWKRGFRQW¶G ²7KH3UHGLFWDELOLW\8QSUHGLFWDELOLW\3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH2FFXUUHQFHRI(YHQWV %RWKSUHGLFWDELOLW\DQGXQSUHGLFWDELOLW\KDYHDPDMRUUROHWRSOD\LQ WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI WKLQJV VR WKDW QHLWKHU GHWHUPLQLVP QRU LQGHWHUPLQLVP ZLQV WKH FHQWXULHVROG ILJKW 7KHUH LV QR SUHGLFWDELOLW\ZLWKRXWXQSUHGLFWDELOLW\²DQGYLFHYHUVD 7KHUHDUHHYHQWVZKLFKDUHSUHGLFWDEOHMXVWDVWKHUHDUHWKRVHZKLFK DUH QRW 2U ZKDW LV UHJDUGHG DV XQSUHGLFWDEOH DW RQH SRLQW LQ WLPH PD\ WXUQ RXW WR EH SUHGLFWDEOH ODWHU DQG FRQYHUVHO\ ZKDW LV GHHPHGDVSUHGLFWDEOHPD\WXUQRXWWRQRWEHVRSUHGLFWDEOH(YHQLQ SUHGLFWDELOLW\ RXWFRPHV DUH VXEMHFW WR XQFHUWDLQW\ WKH GHJUHH RI ZKLFKYDULHVIURPFDVHWRFDVH :RUNV RQ FRPSOH[LW\ WKHRU\ DV LQ )& TXDQWXP PHFKDQLFV DV LQ )3+67DQG)3+* IUHTXHQF\SUREDELOLW\VXEMHFWLYHRU%D\HVLDQ SUREDELOLW\ DQG ³VSHFLDO FDXVHV´ DV LQ )3+*$0 MXVW WR QDPH D IHZRIWKHPKDYHFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIXQFHUWDLQLW\ )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ VXUHQHVVDUELWUDULQHVV FHUWDLQW\ XQFHUWDLQW\ VXUHQHVVGRXEWIXOQHVV GHWHUPLQLVWLFQHVV LQGHWHUPLQLVWLFQHVV GHWHUPLQLVWLFQHVVUDQGRPQHVV OLNHOLQHVV ULVNLQHVVHWF 6RXUFHV(VSHFLDOO\IURP)& )3+*$06HHDOVRP\ODWHUERRNV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW9 BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR0HWKRGFRQW¶G ²7KH([SOLFDELOLW\,QH[SOLFDELOLW\3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH8QGHUO\LQJ0HFKDQLVPVRI7KLQJV %RWKH[SOLFDELOLW\DQGLQH[SOLFDELOLW\DUHSDUWRIWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI WKLQJV 7KHUH LV QR H[SOLFDELOLW\ ZLWKRXW LQH[SOLFDELOLW\²DQG YLFH YHUVD 7KLVSULQFLSOHWHOOVXVWKHGXDOLW\RIWKHUHVHDUFKGLOHPPDLQWKDWLI UHDOLW\ FDQ EH H[SODLQHG LQ VRPH ZD\V LW DOVR KDV LWV RWKHU ZD\V ZKLFKDUHQRWTXLWHH[SODLQDEOHDWDJLYHQSRLQWLQWLPH )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ XQGHUO\LQJQHVVUHJXODUQHVV FDXVDWLRQ UHJXODUQHVV FDXVDWLRQFRUUHODWLRQ H[SODQDWLRQGHVFULSWLRQ H[SODQDWLRQQDUUDWLRQH[SODQDWLRQLQWHUSUHWDWLRQHWF 6RXUFHV(VSHFLDOO\IURP)3+8²DQGDOVR)3+&6HHDOVRP\ODWHU ERRNV ²7KH)LFWLRQ5HDOLW\3ULQFLSOH 2QWKHGLIIHUHQWIDFHVRI5HDOLW\ ,IWKHUHLVUHDOLW\WKHUHLVDOVRILFWLRQHVSHFLDOO\IRUDQ\DJHQWZLWK VRPH NLQG RI LQWHOOLJHQFH OLIH EH LW DERXW KXPDQV DQLPDOV RU ODWHU SRVWKXPDQV 7KHUH LV QR UHDOLW\ ZLWKRXW ILFWLRQ²DQG YLFH YHUVD 7KH GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ UHDOLW\ DQG ILFWLRQ LV QRW DEVROXWH VLQFH WKHUH FDQ EH D PL[WXUH RI ERWK )LFWLRQ FDQ KDYH QRQILFWLRQDO HOHPHQWV MXVW DV QRQILFWLRQ FDQ KDYH ILFWLRQDO RQHV 6R WKH GLVWLQFWLRQLVLQGHJUHHQRWLQNLQG )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ ILFWLRQQRQILFWLRQ ILFWLRQIDFW LPDJLQDWLRQIDFW LPDJLQDWLRQQRQILFWLRQ VXEMHFWLYLW\ REMHFWLYLW\HWF 6RXUFHV)LUVWIURP)3+/,7 BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW9, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR6WUXFWXUH ²7KH)LQLWHQHVV7UDQVILQLWHQHVV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH1DWXUHRI1XPEHUV ,IWKHUHDUHILQLWHWKLQJVWKHUHDUHOLNHZLVHWUDQVILQLWHRQHV7KHUHLV QRILQLWHQHVVZLWKRXWWUDQVILQLWHQHVV²DQGYLFHYHUVD 7RDYRLGFRQIXVLRQ P\ XVDJHRIWKH ZRUG ³WUDQVILQLWH´KHUHGLIIHUV UDGLFDOO\ IURP WKH RQH XVHG E\ &DQWRU DQG RWKHU PDWKHPDWLFLDQV IRU³UHODWLYH´LQILQLW\²DQGLVPRUHOLPLWHGLQOLJKWRIWKHSUREOHPV FRQIURQWLQJDQ\DWWHPSWWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHLGHDRILQILQLW\ EHLWE\ LQWXLWLRQ LPDJLQDWLRQ DQG FRQFHSWLRQ DV GHWDLOHGO\ DQDO\]HG LQ 6HFRI)3+* ,QVWHDGE\³WUDQVILQLW\´,DOORZQXPEHUVZKLFKFDQEHPDQ\WLPHV ODUJHU²RU VPDOOHU IRU WKDW PDWWHU²WKDQ WKH ILQLWH WKLQJV WKDW ZH HQFRXQWHULQGDLO\OLIHEXWWKH\GRQRWKDYHWREHUHODWHGWRWKHLGHD RILQILQLW\DWDOOZKLFKPD\QRWH[LVW 2I FRXUVH WKHUH PD\ EH VRPH ERUGHUOLQH FDVHV LQ ZKLFK LW LV QRW FOHDUZKHWKHUWKHQXPEHULQTXHVWLRQLVWUDQVILQLWHLQP\XVDJH RU VLPSO\ D PDWKHPDWLFDO FRQYHQLHQFH $ JRRG H[DPSOH RI D ERUGHUOLQHFDVHLVWKH3ODQFN XQLWRIOHQJWK IRU ³WKHVPDOOHVWVSDFH SRVVLEO\ PHDVXUHG LQ QDWXUH´ ZKLFK LV ³OHVV WKDQ ELOOLRQWKV RI WULOOLRQWKV RI WULOOLRQWKV RI DQ LQFK´ RU VRPHWKLQJ OLNH î í PHWHUV 7KDW VDLG²P\ XVDJH RI ³WUDQVILQLW\´ FDQ DOVR UHVROYH RU EHWWHU GLVVROYH DQ DJHROG SUREOHP LQ SKLORVRSK\ NQRZQ DV ³=HQR V SDUDGR[HV´DVDOUHDG\H[SODLQHGLQ6HFRI)3+* )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ ERXQGHGQHVVTXDVLXQERXQGHGQHVV VPDOOQHVVODUJHQHVV PLFURQHVVPDFURQHVV ERXQGHGQHVV XQERXQGHGQHVVHWF 6RXUFH)URP)3+*6HHDOVRP\ODWHUERRNV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW9,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR6WUXFWXUHFRQW¶G ²7KH3UHFLVHQHVV9DJXHQHVV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH5HILQHPHQWRI7KLQJV %RWKSUHFLVHQHVVDQGYDJXHQHVVDUHLPSRUWDQWQRWWKDWRQHLVEHWWHU WKDQ WKH RWKHU EXW WKDW ERWK DUH XVHG LQ GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI SUHIHUHQFH LQ DFFRUGDQFH WR WKH FRQWH[WXDO DSSOLFDWLRQ IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYHV RI QDWXUH WKH PLQG FXOWXUH DQG VRFLHW\ (YHQ ZKHQ ERWKDUHXVHGLQDFRPELQDWLRQWKHGLOHPPDLVVKLIWHGLQVWHDGWRRQH RI FRPELQDWLRQDO FRQFHUQ 7KHUH LV QR SUHFLVHQHVV ZLWKRXW YDJXHQHVV²DQGYLFHYHUVD ,QUHODWLRQWRWD[RQRP\SUHFLVHQHVVKDVLWVWD[RQRPLFFODULW\MXVWDV YDJXHQHVV KDV LWV FODVVLILFDWRU\ IOH[LELOLW\ IRU LQVWDQFH $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR QHWZRUN YDJXHQHVV KDV LWV H[SORUDWLYH OLEHUW\ MXVW DV SUHFLVHQHVVKDVLWVFRQFHSWXDOGHILQLWLYHQHVVIRULQVWDQFH )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ FODULW\DPELJXLW\ GLUHFWQHVVLQGLUHFWQHVV TXDQWLWDWLYHQHVVTXDOLWDWLYHQHVV GHVFULEDELOLW\QRQGHVFULEDELOLW\ VSHFLILFLW\REVFXULW\ VSHFLILFLW\JHQHUDOLW\ WKLFNQHVVWKLQQHVV WUDQVODWDELOLW\XQWUDQVODWDELOLW\ FOHDUFXWQHVVWUDQVLWLRQDOQHVV FRQFUHWHQHVVDEVWUDFWQHVVHWF 6RXUFHV(VSHFLDOO\IURP),$6HHDOVRP\ODWHUERRNV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW9,,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR6WUXFWXUHFRQW¶G ²7KH6LPSOHQHVV&RPSOLFDWHGQHVV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH,QWHUFRQQHFWLRQDPRQJ7KLQJV %RWKVLPSOHQHVVDQGFRPSOLFDWHGQHVVDUHYLWDOZLWKRXWIDYRULQJRQH RYHUWKHRWKHULQWKDWHDFKLVXWLOL]HGGHSHQGLQJRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH SHUVSHFWLYHV RI QDWXUH WKH PLQG FXOWXUH DQG VRFLHW\ $QG HYHQ ZKHQ D FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKHP LV SUHIHUUHG WKH GLOHPPD LV RQO\ VKLIWHGWRDFRPELQDWLRQDOGHJUHHRIFRQFHUQ7KHUHLVQRVLPSOHQHVV ZLWKRXWFRPSOLFDWHGQHVV²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
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW,; BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR6WUXFWXUHFRQW¶G ²7KH2SHQQHVV+LGGHQQHVV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH'HWHFWLRQRI7KLQJV 5HDOLW\KDVLWVKLGGHQIDFHMXVWDVLWLVRSHQWRRXWVLGHYLHZLQVRPH RWKHU ZD\V 7KHUH LV QR RSHQQHVV ZLWKRXW KLGGHQQHVV²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
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW; BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR6WUXFWXUHFRQW¶G ²7KH'HQVHQHVV(PSWLQHVV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH'LVWULEXWLRQRI(QWLWLHVLQ6SDFH %RWK GHQVLW\ DQG YRLG DUH QHHGHG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH PLQG QDWXUH FXOWXUHDQGVRFLHW\DOEHLWLQGLIIHUHQWZD\V7KHUHLVQRGHQVHQHVV ZLWKRXWHPSWLQHVV²DQGYLFHYHUVD )RUFODULW\WKHWHUP³YRLG´LVXVHGKHUHRQO\DVDQDSSUR[LPDWLRQRI HPSWLQHVVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHGHJUHHRIWKHODFNRIGHQVLW\ VLQFHLQ SK\VLFVLWLVZHOONQRZQWKDW³HPSW\´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²7KH&KDQJH&RQVWDQF\3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH$OWHUDWLRQRI7KLQJV &KDQJHRFFXUVRYHUWLPHDOWKRXJKFRQVWDQF\LVDOVRDOORZHG7KHUH LVQRFKDQJHZLWKRXWFRQVWDQF\²DQGYLFHYHUVD $V\PPHWU\XQGHUJRHVFKDQJHVRYHUWLPHVRGRHVV\PPHWU\ 2OGSOD\HUVIDGHDZD\DQGQHZRQHVHPHUJHVZLWKHYHUQHZFDXVHV DQGHYHUQHZIRUPV )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ G\QDPLFQHVVVWDWLFQHVV LQVWDELOLW\ VWDELOLW\HWF 6RXUFHV)LUVWQDPHGLQ%&3&(VSHFLDOO\IURP)+&)&'DQG )3+&6HHDOVRRWKHUERRNVRIPLQHIURPWKDWSRLQWRQ BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW;, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR3URFHVVFRQW¶G ²7KH2UGHU&KDRV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH3DWWHUQRI7KLQJV %RWKRUGHUDQGFKDRVDUHYLWDOLQWKHSURFHVVRIFKDQJHLQWKHZRUOG 7KHSUHIHUHQFHIRURUGHULVELDVHGVLQFHLWGRHVQRWJLYHVXIILFLHQW DWWHQWLRQWRWKHYLWDOUROHRIFKDRVLQWKHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIWKHZRUOG ZLWKRXWVRPHKRZUHGXFLQJLWIRUWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIRUGHU 7KHUH LVQRRUGHUZLWKRXWFKDRV²DQGYLFHYHUVD 7KHVFLHQWLILFVHDUFKIRURUGHULQWKHZRUOGLVRIWHQDKLGGHQELDVLQ LWVRQWRORJLFDOREVHVVLRQZLWKRUGHUVLQFHFKDRVLVRIWHQWUHDWHGDV WKH ³EDG´ JX\ ZLWK RUGHU DV WKH ³JRRG´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
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW;,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR3URFHVVFRQW¶G ²7KH6ORZQHVV4XLFNQHVV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH6SHHGRI&KDQJH %RWK VORZQHVV DQG TXLFNQHVV FRH[LVW ZLWK WKHLU RZQ LQWHUQDO WHQVLRQWRWKHH[WHQWWKDWHDFKILJKWVIRULWVRZQUHOHYDQFHZLWKWKH RWKHULQDFFRUGDQFHWRWKHSHUVSHFWLYHVRIQDWXUHWKHPLQGFXOWXUH DQG VRFLHW\ ZLWKRXW RQH EHLQJ WKH YLFWRU DQG WKH RWKHU EHLQJ WKH YDQTXLVKHG LQ WKH ORQJ KDXO (YHQ ZKHQ ERWK DUH FKRVHQ LQ RWKHU FDVHV WKLV GLOHPPD LV RQO\ WUDQVIHUUHG LQWR VRPHWKLQJ HOVH ZLWK D FRPELQDWLRQDOFKDUDFWHU7KHUHLVQRVORZQHVVZLWKRXWTXLFNQHVV² DQGYLFHYHUVD ,QUHODWLRQWRWD[RQRP\TXLFNQHVV KDVLWVHIILFLHQW XVDELOLW\MXVWDV VORZQHVV KDV LWV DHVWKHWLF DSSHDO IRU LQVWDQFH $QG LQ UHODWLRQ WR QHWZRUN TXLFNQHVV KDV LWV DGYHQWXURXV UHDGLQHVV MXVW DV VORZQHVV KDVLWVULVNDGYHUVHFRQYHQLHQFHIRULQVWDQFH )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ LQFRQYHQLHQFHFRQYHQLHQFH SDVVLYHQHVV DFWLYHQHVVQHVV JUDGXDOQHVVDEUXSWQHVV GHFHOHUDWLRQDFFHOHUDWLRQ GLIILFXOW\HDVHHWF 6RXUFHV(VSHFLDOO\IURP),$6HHDOVRP\ODWHUERRNV ²7KH([SDQVLRQ&RQWUDFWLRQ3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH*URZWKRI7KLQJV (QWLWLHVLQWKH ZRUOGFDQERWKH[SDQGLQVRPH ZD\VDQGFRQWUDFWLQ RWKHU RQHV DV SDUW RI WKHLU QDWXUH 7KHUH LV QR H[SDQVLRQ ZLWKRXW FRQWUDFWLRQ²DQGYLFHYHUVD )RULQVWDQFHLQWKHFRQWH[WRIDQRPDORXVH[SHULHQFHRQHRILWVPRVW IDVFLQDWLQJ H[SUHVVLRQV LV QRQH RWKHU WKDQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI GLIIHUHQW FDXVHVRIWKHVORZEXWVWHDG\H[SDQVLRQDQGIXUWKHUPRUHLISXWLQ DGLIIHUHQWZD\XQIROGLQJ RIXQFRQVFLRXVQHVV )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ FRQTXHVWDXWDUN\ ULVHIDOO RU XSGRZQ VSUHDGVKULQN H[WHQGLQJQHVVVKRUWHQLQJQHVV ZLGHQLQJQDUURZLQJ HWF 6RXUFHV(VSHFLDOO\IURP)3+86HHDOVRP\ODWHUERRNV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
7KH)XWXUHRI3RVW+XPDQ0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW;,,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ,Q5HODWLRQWR$JHQF\ ²7KH7KHRU\3UD[LV3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH'XDOLW\RI.QRZOHGJH 7KLV KDV WR GR ZLWK WKH GXDOLW\ RI NQRZOHGJH LQ H[LVWHQWLDO GLDOHFWLFV LQ WKDW LI WKHUH LV WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WKHUH LV OLNHZLVH LWV SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ ERWK WHFKQLFDO DQG QRUPDWLYH 7KHUHLVQRWKHRU\ZLWKRXWSUD[LV²DQGYLFHYHUVD )DPLO\ UHVHPEODQFH HJ GLVFRYHU\DSSOLFDWLRQ NQRZOHGJHDFWLRQ LQYHQWLRQLQQRYDWLRQ WKHRU\LQWHQWLRQDOLW\ GLVFRXUVHDFWLRQ NQRZOHGJHPRWLYDWLRQ XQLYHUVDOLW\SDUWLFXODULW\ NQRZOHGJH LQWHUHVWHWF 6RXUFH(VSHFLDOO\IURP)3+(6HHDOVRP\ODWHUERRNV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB FRQWLQXHGRQQH[WSDJH
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQ²7KH)XWXUHRI0LJUDWLRQ
7DEOH7KH6\QWD[RI([LVWHQWLDO'LDOHFWLFV, 7KH3ULQFLSOHV 3DUW;,9 BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,Q5HODWLRQWR$JHQF\FRQW¶G ²7KH&RQYHQWLRQ1RYHOW\3ULQFLSOH 2QWKH1DWXUHRI&UHDWLYH7KLQNLQJ ,IWKHUHLVFRQYHQWLRQDOZLVGRPWKHUHLVOLNHZLVHQRYHOFKDOOHQJHWR WKHH[WHQWWKDWERWKFRQYHUJHQWDQGGLYHUJHQWWKLQNLQJDUHSDUWRI OLIH7KHUHLVQRFRQYHQWLRQZLWKRXWQRYHOW\²DQGYLFHYHUVD ,QDGGLWLRQLQWKLVFRQWH[WRIWKHFRQYHQWLRQQRYHOW\SULQFLSOHWKHUH DUHLQWKHDEVHQFHRIEHWWHUZRUGVZKDW,ZDQWWRFDOOD FUHDWLYH WHFKQLTXHV DQG E FUHDWLYH WUDLWV ZKLFK ZKHQ VDWLVILHG²LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH ODUJHU FRQWH[W RI WKH PLQG QDWXUH VRFLHW\ DQG FXOWXUH²FDQ EH XVHG WR HQKDQFH FUHDWLYH ZRUNV 7KH OLVW RI FUHDWLYH WHFKQLTXHV DQG WUDLWV DV VXPPDUL]HG LQ 7DEOH RI )3+&7 DUH QRW H[KDXVWLYH RI FRXUVH EXW WKH H[DPSOHV KHUH FRQVWLWXWH D JUHDW EHJLQQLQJ RI XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI FUHDWLYHWKLQNLQJ