The Doomsday Book: Can the World Survive?

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RECOMMENDED'' -ISAAC

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00tr IGETSEIIING AUTHOR OF

Ilological Time Bomb

THE

DOOMSDAY BOOK Can the World Survive?

Gordon Rattray Taylor

A FAWCETT

CREST BOOK

Fawcett Publications, Inc., Greenwich, Conn

for Rodney and Betty

TEE DOOMSDAY BOOK TTTIS BOOK CONTAINS

TIIE @MPLETE TEXT

OF TTIE ORIGINAL HARDCOVER EDMON.

A Fawoett Crest Book reprinted by an"angement with The World Publishing Company Copyright @ 1970 by Gordon Rattray Taylor

All riehts 'tris

reserve4 inclutling the right to reproduco book or portions thereof in any form

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 75-124280 Printed in the United States of America September 1971

l

Population Crash

Acknowledgements

And I saw another angel ascending from the east, having the seal ol the living Gad: and he cried with a loud voice to the four angels, to whom it was given to hurt the earth and the sea, saying, Hart not the ewth, neither thc sea, not the trees. . . . The first angel sounded, and there lollowed hail and fire, mingled with blood, and, they were cast upom the earth: and the third part of trees wa$ bwrnt up, and all green gra.ss was burnt up. And the second angel sounded . , . and the third part of the creatures which w'ere in the sea, and had life, d'ied. . . . And. the third angel sounded . " . an:d the thild part ol

I AM

particularly grateful to the Conservation Foundation in

1ry6shington, who allowed me to use their library and gave me

other heh; and to Dr. Giiran Liifroth of Stockholm University, who supplied me with numerous uniquely valuable reports prepared for the Committec for Natural Resources of the Swedish Natural Science Research Council and other documents; and to Dr. C. R. Manders, Scientific Officer, British Embassy, Tokyo, who zupplied copious material about Japan. I am also m.ost grateful to the following who gave up valuable timE to discuss specific problems: Prof. R. A. tsryson

the waters became worntwood; and rnany men died of the waters, becawse they were made bitter. And the fourth angel sounded . . . and the day shone not for a third part of it, utd the night likewise. And the filth angel soundd . . . and there arose a smoke out ol the pit, as the smoke of a gteat turnace; and the sun and the air were d.arkened by reason ol the smoke of the pit. And tkere can e out of the smoke locusts upon the earth. . . , And in those doys shall nun seek d"eath, and shall not find it; and shall desire to dip, and death shall flee from them. By these three was the third part of men killed, by the fire, and by the smoke, and by the brimstone. . . . And the test ol the men which were not killed by these plagues yet repented; not ol the works of their hands, that they should not worchip devils, and idols of gold, and silver, and brass, and stone, and. ol woo'd.

(University of Wisconsin), Frof. C. LaMont Cole (Cornell University), Dr. F. Fraser Darling and Dr. Ray Dasmann (Conservation Foundation), Prof. Kingsley Davis (International Population and Urban Research, University of California, Berkeley), Prof. Paul Ehrlish (Stanford University), Dr. F. R. Fosberg (Smithsonian Institution), Lyle Saunders (The Ford Foundation), Dr. Glenn Seaborg (US Atomic Energy Commissiolr), S. Fred Singer (US Deparhent of the Interior), Dr. Harold A. Thomas (Center for Poptrlation Studies, Harvard University), Dr. T. Tircker (Bristol and Avon River Authority), Stewart L. Udall (Overview), Dr. H. van der Schalie (University of Michigan), R. M. Westebbe (International Bank for Reconstruction and Redevelopment), and Dr. Gale Yonrng and colleagues (Oak Ridge National

TIIE REVELATION OF ST JOTIN TIIE DIVINE, Chapters 7,8, and 9

I also owe warrn thanks for help and information to: Dr. Lewis S. Anderson (Population Council, Turkey), Dr. J. M.

Laboratory).

Barnes (MRC Toxicology R.U.), Dr. W. G. Belter (US Atomic Energy Cornmisgion;, Dr. J. Bettelheim (Power Research Institute, Pragu.e), Dr. I. O. Blomeke (Oak R.idge National Laboratory), Dr. S. Boyden (.dustralian National University), Prof. Dr. K. tsuilrich (Institut fiir Meteorologie, Mainz), John Clark (American Littoral Society), Prof. Barry Commone,r (Washington University), Dr. A. H. Cooney (Burrougbs and Wellcome, N.Y.), Dr. A. J. Coutu (N. Carolina State University), H. J. Frith (CSIRO, Canberra), Dr. J. W. Gofman (Lawrence Radiation Laboratory), Dr. E. D.

Contents

Goldberg (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), Dr. Harriet Service, MIT), Dr. Mat-

L. Hardy (Occupational Medical thew Huxley (National Institute

of Health), Prof. Dr.

O.

Jaag (Aastalt fiir Wasserversorgung, Switzerland), Niels Johannsen (Copenhagen), Dr. F. S. Johnson (Southwest Center for Advanced Studies), Prof. C. Junge (Max-Planck Insti-

tut fiir Chemie), G. I(azantzis (Middlesex Hospital), Prof. V. A. Kovda (University of Moscow), Prof. P. J. Krarner

(Duke Universrty), H. H. Lamb (Meteorological Office), Leif

Larsen (Poliliken), Dr. P. J. Lawther (St. Bartholomew's Hospital Medical School), Howard Lewis (National Academy of Sciences), Dr. P. Leyhausen (Max-Planck Institut fiir Verhaltensphysiologie), Dr. J. E. Lovelock, Thomas F. Malone (Travelers' Inswaoce Co.), Dr. H. G. Masterson (Central Electricity Research Laboratories), Mme M. de Meuron-Landolt (Atomes), Dr. J. A. Mihursky (University of Maryland),

N. T. Mitchell (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food), W. E. Moran (Population Reference Bureau), Dr. R. J.

Murgatroyd (Meteorological Office), Dr. K. Myers (CSIRO, Australia), Dr. A. Nelson Smith (University of Swansea),

Dr. Hans Palmstierna (Government Environmental Committee, Swedeo), Dr. F. Pasquill (Meteorological Office), Dr. C. C. Patterson (California Institute of Technology), H. W. Patterson (Acres, Ltd.), W. H. Pawley (Food and Agriculture Organizafiol), Dr. P. Pockley (Australian Broadcasting Commission), Fred Poland (Monteal Star), Dr. H. F. Robinson (University System of Georgia), Dr. A. J. W. Scheffey (Williams College), Prof. H. W. Schlipkoter (Med. Inst. fiir Lufthygiene und Silikoseforschung, Diisseldorf), B. Sochor (UNESCO), Dr. P. V. Sukhatme (Food and Agriculture Organization), O. J. Du Temple (American Nuclear Society), Dr. V. Timbrell (MRC Pneumoconiosis R.U.), Dr. F. E. Volz (HQ Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories), C. C. Warnick (University of Idaho), Kjell Wase (National Nature Conservancy Office, Stockholm), and Dr. Charles F. Wurster (State University of New York).

MAN TIIE MICROBE Words of warning ' Spaceship Earth ' Pollution and super-pollution ' The peo' ple problem ' PYtrhic victory

13

THB PLANETARY ENGINBERS Vf/ater works ' The earthquake makers ' The nuclear bulldozer Melting the ice' cap ' SPnre that tree!

27

ICE AGE OR IIEAT DEATH? Cool it, man' Cloudy prospects' Climat' ic flip ' The heat d.eath

55

NATURE HITS

BACK

Population explosions ' The perils ol pest control' Vanishing animals ' Lakes and mistakes ' The great cycles' Nitrate iag ' Noxious gases

77

101 TIIE LAST GASP Crown ol thorns ' The red tides ' The finite sink ' Whifr ol oil ' Oxygen crisis 119 THE NEW LOOK IN POLLUTANTS Asbestos as a pollutant ' DDT: the state of play ' DDT, sex and cancer Biological controls ' What became of the eagles? BREATHE ONLY

OUT! ol lead

The menace

143

The lead

breathe ' Most lethal metal and gay?

'

You

Short lives

TIIE FIFTII FACTOR The probletn ol radio-active wastes Krypton and tritium ' Are there safe levels? ' Biological concentration ' A* ceptable doses' Cancer and the acceptable dose ' The accident risk ' Gully-

gully'

DOOMSDAY

Conclusion

TIIE POPULATION LIMTT Energy debit ' Famine or glut? ' Are population torecasts credible? ; Protein shock ' Erosion ' The problems ahead 10

219

POPULATION CRASII: WTTEN?

Crowded

habitations Conditions

in

cities ' Crowding in animals ' Wilderness and suburb ' Optimum populations 11

Nor rnr Banrnt WEW and GEO? ' Personal effort ' You pay already ' Progress to date ' Those in

HURT

authority 12

'

Blind spots

THE TECIINOLOGICAL NIGI TMARE Technical fixes ' Crisis of the cornmons ' Bankruptcy of economics' Technological treadmill' Defenders ol technology ' The Iove of nature ' Triple crisis SOME ORGANIZATIONS CONCERNBD TO PRO295 TECT THE ENVIRONMENT RBFBRENCES

297

the Microbe

in a testtrbe, with food and oxygen, and Vlll grow explosiveln doubling in number every twenty or so, until they form a solid visible

mass. But finalceaee as th€y become poisoned by tb€ir products. In the centre of the mass will be'a oore

will

and dying bacteria, cut off from the food and oxygpn environme,nt by the solid barrier of their neigfborrr. ,aumber of living bacteda will fall almost to zero, ttnless products are washed away.

today is in a similar position. The population is explosively, but the waste products of technology are to take their toll. The polutants which poison our r,

and water are not iust an unfortrmate by-product of ; they pose a threat to life precisely because man'g has been so abnormally npid. They are pafr of the mechanism by which nature seeks to limit excessive

eventual population crash, when the complexitier of scale become overwhelming, has yet to come. If the of other species can be taken as a guide, the will fall to something like one-third thc peak All animal populations srhibit population explosions time to time. AII such explosions end in crashes. Wili prove the only exception? Or will his technological sHIl him to postpone the apocallpse, so that he flies higher to fall further? :: Man is only one of three million species in the world. But he conzumes more food than all other land animals put . Roughly, the numbere of any species are inversely ial to their size. For obvious leasons there are far

t3

14

Mon the Microbe

Tfte Doomsdcy Eoo&

more mosquitoes than elephants in the world. For his size, man was once a rare species, The population of the Stone Age has been estimated at a million or so. Neanderthal man, it has been estimated, lived at a density of one person ta 7--5 square miles. His numbers were conditioned by the density and distribution of game and edible plants, as well as by ttle risks of being eaten by a leopard or dying of fever. On balance, he just about replaced himself, and if a run of good luck caused the population to rise, he would cut it back by abortion, infanticide, or prolonging lactation. In the inter-

glacial period, however, a dramatic change took place: thanks to a series of technologica"l advances, man's numbers began to increase steadily.

Even so, it took until 1850 for the world's population to reach a billion. But it took only until 1930 to add a second billion, a mere 80 years. By 1960, a third billion had been added-after only 30 years. The fourth billion will have been reached by 1,975, a bare 15 years more. But the pace gets

ever faster:

a fifth billion by 1985-6, a sixth by

about

1993-6, a seventh by the year 2000 or soon after. This is not a popnlation explosion, fol in an explosion the particles lose speed as they move outwards. Itrere the speed is increasing all the time. Clearly the expansion cannot continue at this rate

indefinitely-but so far there is no sign at all of slowing down. At the moment, as you read these lines, the earth's population is growing at the rate of almost a hundred people a minute.

So,

if

we have problems of crowding, pollution and

a

disturbed balance of nature now, what shall we have in thirty years or so? It is plain as a pikestaff that unless something very drastic is done, the situation will be literally intolerable. The impact of so many people will go far beyond a simple dirtying-up of our surroundings. It could drastically change the climate. It could disturb the balance of nature so radically as to make life impossible for man in anything like his present numbers: for man's continued existence depends upon the existence of many other species of plants and animals, upon which he feeds, and these in turn depend on others. Eut food is not the only thing on which life depends. The life cycle depends on the bactena which destroy dead organisms, and on those organisms which restore to the air

k

15

nrygerr lhnt man and animals consume, to name but two"

ll lr tlrir t orrrplclc network of relationships which is at risk" It lhir in thc case, why have scientists not warned us long

l!*r? I lrc nl'rswcr is: they have, but only now are the warnlap lntrrg rclirycd by the mass media. They are warnings not ftnl

lf

*nnnlt

tlillicrrlties but of a major disaster. ()tr WARNING

Ar krtrg rgo as 1959, Dr David Frice of the US Public tlerrlllr Scrvice said: 'We all live under the haunting fear that Grrrrrllring may comrpt the environrnent to the point where fitarr joins the dinosaurs as an obsolete form

*hktl

of life.' Ald

he

orninously: 'And what makes these thoughts all the Irrrro rlisturbing is the knowledge that our fate could perhaps he tellccl twenty or more years before the development of rynrplonrs.'

ljvcn caplier than this, in 1957, Professor F. R. Fosberg nrerlo a slightly different point: 'It is entirely possible that nrnn will not survive the changed environment that he is ercnting,'he said, 'either because of failure of resources, war ovcr their dwindling supply, or failure of his nervous system Io cvolve as rapidly as the change in environment will reqrrirc.' 'l'he world remained notably unmoved, and in 1968 Dr Fraser Darling, Scottish-born tesearch director of the Con;ervation Foundation in Washington, told the representatives of 70 nations in Paris, assembled to discuss just this problem, "lhe fear is now whether we can rehabilitate, or are causes and consequences setting up their own repercussive oscillations to an extent we cannot control?' The calling of this meeting at least was a sign of progress, and the delegates adopted, with an unaaimity rare in international gatherings, a whole set of recommendations for tackling the problem. But these are men professionally concerned with health and conservation. What about hard-headed administrators? The President of the Rockefeller Foundation, in a report issued about the same time as the meeting in Paris, wrote: 'We are on the threshold of a new ecological crisis, because of our failure to establish a balance between resources, their utilization and our requirements.' The inventor of the term 'ecosphere', Professor LaMont Cole, was prepared to put it

tG

dence of catastrophe before we act?'

Though I could extend the list easily enough, I shall cite just one more, Professor Barry Commoner, director of Washington University's Center for the Biology of Natural Systems. In his book Science and Survival he declares: "I believe that the cumulative effect of these pollutants, and their interactions and emplification, can be fatal to the com_ plex fabric of the biosphere. And because man is, after all, a dependent part of fhis sysfs6, I believe that continued pollution of the earth, if unchecked, will eventually destroy the fitness of this planet as a place for human life.' you cannot put it plainer than that. These are fantastically strong assertions, yet they have caused. relatively little impact. By and large, men do not conduct their affairs as if the planet were on the verge of becoming uninhabitable. The threat is too serious to take seriously. Are these scientists grossly overstating their case to gain attention? If so, they have defeated their own ends. Or are they in earnest, and are we too complacent or unimaginative to listen? Part of ffos diffigulty, I suspect, is that they have not spelled out their predictions in sufficient detail. Words like 'the complex fabric of the biosphere' are too general and abstract to mean muc.h to anyoae who is not a biologist,

most

Mon the Microbe

The Doomsday Book

more strongly. In an article starkly entitled .Can the Worltl be Saved?' he lamented 'man's apparent intention to darnagc beyond repair the ecosystems which sustain him'. |.{s1 ealy Americans are concerned. For instance, G6ran Iiifroth, a Swedish scientist, asserts: "There is at least the possibility of a h 'man tragedy of global proportions occurring if our present practices continue unrestrained. Must we demand the evi-

of whom have

never heard a word like 'biosphere' My object in writing this book is therefore to make the predicted breakdown as explicit as is possible in the present state of our knowledge. It is a book about the next thirty years-a survey of the problems which are looming, not a summary of those we already know about. It has little to say about smog and industrial effiuent, much about clibefore,

mate and the great cycles on which all life depends"

I$':.lttt'

l(Atr't

17

lI

|$1 nrllllorrr of ycnrs we have known a world whose resourJ5 rcsnrorl illinritable. flowever fast we cut down trees, |6Rtts rrrruftlctl would replace them. However many fish we

hrl

lrrrrrr lho sca, nature would restock it. Ilowever much wn rlrrmlrcd into the river, nature would purify it, just ;1 dra woultl purify the air, however much smoke and fumes }rl l{rl irrkr it. Today we have reached the stage of realizing lhrl rlvonr crrn be polluted past praying for, that seas can be Btafirlrcll nnd that forests must be managed and fostered if

F*r1e

lltry aro s11v1 1s vanisfo. llrtt wo still retain our primitive optimism about air and irlcr. 'llrcrc will always be enough rain falling from the tller lo mcct ou.r needs. The air can absorb all the filth we orr€ lo put in it. Still less do we worry whether we could .vsr nrn short of oxygen. Surely there is air enough to lrtonlho? Who ever asks where oxygen comes from, to begin wllh? They should-for we now consume about 10 per cent of nll the atmospheric oxygen €very year, thanks to the many fornn of combustion which destroy it: every car, aircraft and lxrwcr station destroys oxygen in quantities far greater than nrotr consume by breathing.

'lhe fact is, we are just beginning to press up against the llmits of the earth's capacity. We begin to have to watch whnt we are doing to things like water and oxygen, just as we

hnvo to watch whether we are over-fshing or over-felling. 'lho realization has dawned that earth is a spaceship with rtrictly limited resorlrces. These resources must, in the long run, be recycled, either by nature or by man. Just as the ostronaut's urine is purified to provide drinking water and lust as his expired air is regenerated to be breathed anew, so all the earth's resourc€s must be recycled, gooner or later. Up to now, the slow pace of nature's own recycling has servedn coupled with the fact that the korking capital' of already

recycled material was large. But the margins are getting gmaller and if men, in ever larger oumbers, are going to

require ever larger quantities, the pace of recycling will have to be artificialty quickened. All we have is a narrow band of usable atmosphere, no more than seven miles high, a thin erust of land, only one-eighth of the surface of which is really suitable for

l8

The Doomsdoy Book people to live on, and a limited supply of drinkable watcr. which we continually reuse. And in the earth, a capital ol fossil fuels and ores which we steadily run down, billions ol' times faster than nature restores it. These resources are tie