Population Growth and Environmental Degradation in Southern Africa 9781685854836

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POPULATION GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

POPULATION GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

edited by

Ezekiel Kalipeni

L Y N til E RIENNER PUBLISHERS

BOULDER. L O N D O N

Published in the United States of America in 1994 by Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. 1800 30th Street, Boulder, Colorado 80301 and in the United Kingdom by Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. 3 Henrietta Street, Covent Garden, London WC2E 8LU © 1994 by Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Population growth and environmental degradation in southern Africa / edited by Ezekiel Kalipeni ; [contributors, Alifeyo Chilivumbo . . . etal.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-55587-512-2 (alk. paper) 1. Africa, Southern—Population. 2. Environmental degradation— Africa, Southern. 3. Environmental policy—Africa, Southern. 4. Women—Africa, Southern—Economic conditions. I. Kalipeni, Ezekiel, 1954- . II. Chilivumbo, Alifeyo. HB3663.3.A3P66 1994 304.6'0968—dc20 94-2569 CIP British Cataloguing in Publication Data A Cataloguing in Publication record for this book is available from the British Library. Printed and bound in the United States of America The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of the American National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials Z39.48-1984.

Contents

List of Illustrations Preface

vii xi

1 Introduction: Southern Africa's Expanding Population Ezekiel Kalipeni

1

2 Population Growth and Environmental Degradation in Malawi Ezekiel Kalipeni

17

3 Population, the Environment, and Resources in Zimbabwe Dan S. Tevera

39

4 Women, Work, and Public Policy: Structural Adjustment and the Informal Sector in Zimbabwe Mary J. Osirim

61

5 Dust to Diamonds: The Relationships Among Water, Population, and Livestock in Botswana Robert P. Morris, Jr., Phyllis Jones, and Cheryl Lackman

85

6 Female-Headed Households, Private Transfer Entitlements, and Drought Relief in Rural Botswana Theodore R. Valentine

119

7 Rural-Urban Migration and Urbanization in Zambia During the Colonial and Postcolonial Periods Nsolo J. Mijere and Alifeyo Chilivumbo

147

8 Securing the Future: Environmental Issues as a Priority in South Africa Anne Schonfield

179

Bibliography Index About the Contributors About the Book

211 227 234 236 v

Illustrations

Figures 2.1 2.2 2.3 5.1 5.2 6.1 6.2 6.3 7.1

Population Growth and Environmental Stress: A Conceptual Framework for Malawi Population Growth in Malawi, 1 9 0 0 - 2 0 2 0 Age/Sex Pyramid for Malawi, 1987 Relative Importance of Various Demands for Water in Botswana Conceptual Framework of the Interrelationships Between Population Growth and Resources in Botswana Distribution of Cash Income in Botswana by Gender of Household Head and Location, 1985/86 Distribution of Total Income in Botswana by Gender of Household Head and Location, 1985/86 Income Distribution in Rural Botswana, 1974/75-1985/86 Zambians in Wage Employment in Selected Years, 1906-1981

21 23 24 99 110 124 125 126 151

Maps 2.1 2.2 3.1a 3.1b 3.1c 3.2a 3.2b

Regions and Districts in Malawi Population Density of Malawi by District, 1987 Agroecological Regions in Zimbabwe Land-Use Patterns in Zimbabwe Agricultural Potential in Zimbabwe Population of Selected Urban Centers in Zimbabwe, 1982 Drainage and Relief in Zimbabwe

3.3 Percentage Population Change in Zimbabwe, 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 8 2 5.1 Urban Centers and Selected Physical Features in Botswana 5.2a Mean Annual Rainfall in Botswana

vii

18 27 42 42 42 51 51 53 87 89

viii

Illustrations

5.2b 5.3 7.1a 7. lb 7.2 7.3 8.1

Arable Potential in Botswana Groundwater Prospects in Botswana Zambian Provinces Size and Distribution of Towns in Zambia Interprovincial Lifetime Migration in Zambia, 1969 and 1980 Net Internal Lifetime Migration in Zambia, 1969-1980 Population of Selected Cities in South Africa, 1991

89 100 159 159 160 162 186

Tables 1.1. 1.2 2.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5

6.6 6.7

Population and Demographic Parameters for Southern Africa, 1992 Agriculture and Food in Southern Africa Vacant Land, Land Under Use, and Physiological Density by Region in Malawi, 1987 Major Land-Use Types in Zimbabwe Characteristics of the Commercial and Peasant Farming Sectors in Zimbabwe Prior to 1980 Major Demographic Parameters in Zimbabwe, 1969 and 1982 School Enrollment by Gender in Zimbabwe, 1986 Labor Force Participation Rates by Major Occupational Group in Zimbabwe Population Projections, Botswana, 1988-2015 The Growth of Human and Cattle Populations in Botswana, 1904-1991 Cattle Distribution by Households in Rural Areas of Botswana Summary of Household Statistics by Location and Gender of Head of Household, Botswana, 1985/86 Median Monthly Household Income in Botswana in 1985/86 Mean and Median Monthly Rural Household Income in Botswana for 1974/75 and 1985/86 Monthly Income for the Rural Sector of Botswana in Cash and in Kind by Income Category, 1985/86 Drought Relief Expenditures, Government Development Expenditures, and Government Revenues in Botswana, 1979/80 to 1988/89 Category and Number of Food Distribution Program Recipients in Botswana, 1987/88 Monthly Expenditures on Food in Botswana by Rural Sector Expenditure Group

2 5 29 41 43 49 70 74 94 105 106 122 123 125 129

132 135 136

Illustrations

7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5

Population and Growth of Selected Towns in Zambia, 1969-1980 Estimated Provincial Population Change in Zambia Due to Migration, 1963-1969 Estimated Provincial Population Change in Zambia Due to Migration, 1969-1980 Number of Educational Institutions in Zambia by Region, 1978 Formal Employment in Zambia, 1980-1988 Squatter Settlements in Lusaka, 1954-1973 Racial Differences in Distribution and Production of Farmland in South Africa, 1985 Population Density and Distribution of Arable Land in South Africa, 1985 Population Projections and Growth Rate, South Africa, 1989-2035 Population Distribution in South Africa, 1980 South Africa's Share of World Mineral Production and Reserves

ix

158 161 161 165 167 171 187 188 192 194 197

Preface

Southern Africa's rapidly evolving situation continues to make it one of the most sensitive areas on the continent. Namibia is finally independent. Angola is suspended between continued anarchy and peace. South Africa is in a state of flux with remarkable, unprecedented social change and has moved toward majority rule faster than previously anticipated. In other parts of the region, people are demanding democratic participation in government, sometimes with successful results, as recently witnessed in Zambia. Attention has therefore been focused on the political changes taking place, at the expense of issues such as population growth, environmental degradation, equitable distribution of resources, and the implication of the political changes on environmental sustainability. The contributions presented here address population and environmental concerns, and we hope the book will serve as a catalyst for a revived interest in these neglected but equally critical issues. This is an interdisciplinary effort by contributors from both Africa and the United States. The authors are of varied academic backgrounds, including geographers, Africanists, economists, demographers, sociologists, and anthropologists, and their work will appeal to those who study and teach in the areas of demography, population studies, environmental issues, economic development of Third World countries, human geography, and so on. However, the book is also intended for a wider readership, particularly those people involved in the development of Africa through such agencies as USAID, the World Bank, the IMF, UNFPA, and numerous nongovernmental agencies involved in population and environmental issues. A number of the chapters give specific recommendations that could be adopted by African governments, policymakers, and planners to ensure that the environment is not sacrificed in the name of progress. In chapters that are clearly written and free of technical jargon, the book provides an understanding of the dynamics of population growth, the environment, and access to resources. The contributors examine the followxi

xii

Preface

ing specific subjects: policy implications of rapid population growth, the impact of population growth on the environment and economic sectors, rapid population growth and rural-urban migration, the environmental legacy of apartheid, the environmental issue as a critical factor in the stability of southern Africa, and access to resources, especially for traditionally marginalized groups such as women in both rural and urban areas. The idea for this book would never have been realized without the dedicated assistance and cooperation of all the contributors. I am also indebted to many others who contributed in one way or another to this project, particularly Eliya Zulu and Maureen Hayes-Mitchell for their editorial assistance. Special thanks go to Colgate University for its institutional support. Without the technical facilities offered by the university, it would have been extremely difficult to produce this work. The research for Chapters 1 and 2 was funded by Colgate University through a Research Council grant. I am grateful to my friends in the United States for the encouragement and support they have given me. Without their generous efforts and hospitality, it would have been practically impossible to survive in this country. Special thanks and deep gratitude go to Mike Day and his family (Shelley, Kyle, and Bryce), Bob McConaughey and his family (Patricia Blanton and Adam), and Alan Johnston and his family. Finally, but certainly not least, I am grateful to my own family, who displayed remarkable understanding for my daily and nightly absences while I was in the process of putting this book together. Ezekiel

Kalipeni

m

Introduction: Southern Africa's Expanding Population EZEKIEL K A L I P E N I

As noted by leading scholars on Africa's population crisis, Africa's rate of population growth for the past decade has averaged 3 percent per annum, the fastest growth rate in human history for any world region. 1 Southern Africa is no exception in this regard. If current trends continue, southern Africa's population is likely to double in less than thirty years, placing enormous pressures on available farmland, job creation, shelter, educational systems, public services and the environment. As shown in Table 1.1, the population of all the countries in the southern African subcontinent grew at rates of more than 2.5 percent per year. Zambia topped the list with an annual population growth rate of 3.8 percent, and South Africa registered the lowest annual growth rate of 2.6 percent, in contrast to the estimated average world population growth rate of 1.8 percent.

Rapid Population Growth and the Transition Model The high population growth rates are primarily due to Africa's position in the second stage of the demographic transition. In this stage, crude death rates suddenly plummet and birth rates remain at very high levels or even experience an increase. Because the difference between the crude birth rate and crude death rate is very high, the rate of natural increase is also very high. 2 During the past fifty years countries of southern Africa have experienced a dramatic decline in death rates, including infant mortality rates. Although the death rates are still very high by world standards, the crude death rates of most countries in southern Africa are comparable to those of the developed countries. The only exceptions are Malawi, Mozambique, and Angola, which have crude death rates of 18, 18, and 19 per 1,000 population, respectively. Infant mortality rates are also on the decline, ranging from a high of 137 per 1,000 population for Malawi to a low of 45 per 1,000 population for Botswana. 1

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3

On the other hand, fertility rates have remained stubbornly high throughout the region. As shown in Table 1.1, crude birth rates range from a high of 53 births per 1,000 population for Malawi to a low of 34 for South Africa. The world average is 26 births per 1,000 population. A woman in southern Africa can expect to give birth to six children. The lowest total fertility rate is 4.5 for South Africa; Botswana and Zimbabwe have the next lower rates of 4.8 and 5.6, respectively. Do the lower than usual total fertility rates of South Africa, Botswana, and Zimbabwe suggest the move into the third stage of the demographic transition in which birth rates begin to decline? Are some African countries at the verge of achieving the fertility transition against all expectations? Although the demographic transition model has received considerable attention in recent years, its relevance is increasingly uncertain. 3 The usefulness of the transition model to explain the population changes occurring in the developing countries is an important issue; conditions in today's developing countries of southern Africa differ considerably from those that prevailed in the West European nations as they moved through the demographic transition. In this respect, questions need to be raised about the degree to which the developing countries will duplicate the experience of the developed countries upon which the demographic transition model is based. 4 There are marked differences in the demographic parameters between the European experience and the likely experience of today's southern African countries. First, when most European countries were undergoing their demographic transitions the average doubling time was in the area of 85 to 95 years and very few countries experienced growth rates of more than 1.5 percent. Contrast this to growth rates of more than 2.5 percent for southern Africa and the fact that the population doubling times are less than 25 years. Second, the European countries experienced a gradual decline in mortality, which was a direct consequence of economic and social forces of industrialization and development. 5 In the developing countries of southern Africa, mortality declines have been rapid and dramatic not because of socioeconomic development but due to imported medical technologies such as immunizations and vaccinations. Third, the fertility levels in southern Africa are much higher than those that prevailed in Europe before the European countries began their demographic transition. The crude birth rate for southern Africa is estimated to be 44, and, by comparison, the crude birth rate in early nineteenth-century Britain was estimated to be around 35. Many other differences between the transition experience in Europe and the likely course of demographic events in southern Africa can be identified. 6 Writing in 1975, Teitelbaum noted the following:

4

Ezekiel Kalipeni It must be recognized that the high levels of development of Europe and parts of Latin America are not a realistic prospect for many developing countries, at least over the next few decades. When transition theory is applied to such circumstances, it fails to provide adequate answers to two questions of fundamental scientific and policy significance: (1) Will the moderate levels of development to which many developing countries can realistically aspire in the medium-term future be sufficient to establish the preconditions for "natural" fertility decline? (2) If such declines do occur, will they occur soon enough and at a pace rapid enough to compensate for the sharply increased pace of mortality decline and higher initial fertility levels of these countries as compared with transitional Europe?7

Mounting Population Pressures: Malthus Revisited? The current international debate on population matters hinges on the two questions posed by Teitelbaum in the above quote. T h o s e arguing that development will "take care o f ' population, as voiced at the Bucharest Population Conference in 1974, believe that development is sufficient and n e c e s s a r y to bring about prompt fertility reductions at an a c c e p t a b l e tempo. 8 Those arguing in favor of voluntary population policies and programs emphasize the importance o f development but doubt its sufficiency and timeliness for many countries, and hence call for direct efforts to enhance and accelerate its demographic impacts. Traditionally, advocates o f family planning programs j u s t i f y their approach through Malthusian population theory. Malthus's main thesis was that population growth far outpaces the capacity of the earth to sustain life. It implies that population growth and fertility not only threaten the future availability o f finite resources, but serve as the cause of poverty, unemployment, and a host of other social problems. 9 With reference to southern Africa, as the population has continued to grow, food production has seen a precipitous decline. During the last twenty years, food production has registered a growth of less than 2 0 percent in the face of a 3 0 percent increase in the population growth rate over the same period. 1 0 This region and other parts of Africa have moved from a position of self-sufficiency in food production to chronic hunger and malnutrition (see Table 1.2). The increase in imports o f cereals and food aid between 1 9 7 4 and 1 9 8 6 is striking. For example, Zambia's food aid increased from a low o f 5 , 0 0 0 metric tons in 1974/75 to a high o f 1 1 6 , 0 0 0 metric tons in 1986. This pattern is repeated for a number of other countries in the region. 1 1 Apart from declining food production, southern Africa's varied landscapes, which include tropical forests, savanna grasslands, and desert, are encountering a range o f environmental problems that stem from everincreasing human pressure f o r m o r e l a n d . 1 2 A s m o r e fertile land was taken over for white-owned c o m m e r c i a l farms during the colonial era,

Introduction

5

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