Popular Science (June 2004)

Citation preview

THUMBS UP? Scientists Preview Th e Day Af ter To m o rrow

47

HOT PRODUCTS AND IDEAS IN WHAT’S NEW

DEFENSE 2020

ThePentagon’sWeaponsof the Future [SPEARS FROM SPACE [SUPERFAST TORPEDOES [KINETIC MISSILES [JET-BASED LASERS

PLUS: WE FORCE A GEEK TO LIVE ON TECH FROM 1954 AND: CAN THE HIGH-TECH 7E7 SAVE BOEING?

US $3.99 CAN $4.99

JUNE 2004

popsci.com

CONTENTS JUNE 2004 VOLUME 264 #6

Founded in 1872

The Acura came roaring out of the gate hard left and knocked over a two-and-a-half-foot-high concrete guard before DARPA could hit stop.

DARPA’S DEBACLE IN THE DESERT p. 86

tech

O N T H E C O V E R : J O H N M A C N E I L L ; I N S E T P H O T O G R A P H , C O U RT E S Y T O Y O TA M O T O R C O R P. ; T H I S PA G E , C L O C K W I S E F R O M T O P L E F T: C O U RT E S Y T O Y O TA M O T O R C O R P. ; T O M E R H A N U K A ; G A R RY M A R S H A L L ; M I C H A E L D A RT E R ; J O H N M A C N E I L L ; RYA N H E S H K A ; E D W I N F O T H E R I N G H A M ; A L A I N P I L O N

15 What’s New

Toyota’s prescient concept car; 1MP camera phones; portable PlayStation; geek campsite; remote-control lawnmower; 20 products in 2 pages 101 How 2.0 ACQUIRE Digital SLRs vs. all-in-ones INTEGRATE Trekking Tajikistan with GPS HACK Unlocking your cellphone BUILD Eight steps to a classic arcade

15

101

38

44

32

84

94

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news 43 Headlines RESEARCH Bacterial microbots DEFENSE Gaps in the new missile shield GREEN TECH 2,000 miles on one charge PHYSICS Tabletop fusion reconsidered

stories 56

Hollywood, Science, and the End of the World The Day After

Tomorrow is a severe weather warning. How’s its science? By Matthew Teague 62

Is This What War Will Come To? Five strange weapons systems

from the Pentagon’s future files. By Eric Adams 74 Tech ’54, Where Are You? We

send our writer 50 years back in time to live life without e-mail, PDAs and ATM cards. By Larry Smith 84

DARPA’s Debacle in the Desert

An inside look at what went wrong at the Grand Challenge. Plus: Who’s ready for next year’s race? By Joseph Hooper 94

Boeing, Boeing, Gone? Aviation giant stakes its commercial-aircraft future on the 7E7. By Bill Sweetman

depts. 6 From the Editor 9 Contributors 10 Letters 32 Man and Machine 38 Crime Seen 112 FYI 144 Looking Back

POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

5

FROM THE EDITOR

Bad Weather Bids For Boffo Box Office JUDGING FROM THE EARLY-CUT PREVIEW WE SAW A FEW MONTHS

ago, Roland Emmerich’s latest movie, The Day After Tomorrow, will be a hell of a ride—at least if you like to see favorite cities laid waste by tidal waves, plagues of giant hail and gangs of rampaging tornadoes (which we do, certainly). At the very least, it looks to be another step forward for computer-generated special effects. Pixel-processing power is now such that when a virtual tsunami charges down a Manhattan street, the virtual camera can shoot from multiple angles and even surf the wave. You have to believe that filmmaking is moving, as inexorably as high water, toward the day when computer special effects will be indistinguishable from filmed reality. After that will come a virtual guild of CG actors, powered by AI, reading from scripts written by PCs and shot by robo-helmers, at which point an “independent” film will be one produced on a PDA. But that’s a different nightmare scenario from the one raised by The Day After Tomorrow. Forget global warming: This movie is about global gasket-blowing, Mother Nature on a binge. Emmerich naturally says he shot the film as a warning, not merely as an entertainment. This is at least good marketing, and nicely timed after a recent Pentagon-funded what-if/worst-case report sparked headlines when it speculated that rapid cooling in the northern hemisphere—a hangover effect of rapid warming—could begin as early as 2010. But does the film have anything to do with reality, or is it just a bucket-of-popcorn apocalypse? With the Fox studio’s cooperation we took the script and some clips to three respected experts: a paleoclimatologist, a paleontologist and the futurist who co-wrote the Pentagon’s report (see page 56). Frankly, we expected the same sort of pure-hokum dismissal that scientists offered last year regarding the silly magnetic-field disaster flick The Core. But that wasn’t quite what we got. Certainly, the movie depicts a crazily accelerated, climate-on-crack-cocaine scenario that, compared to historical examples of rapid climate change, is unbelievable. Rapid climate change means different things in Earth years and in Hollywood minutes. But, our experts warned, the consequences of rapid climate change would feel mighty apocalyptic to those who experienced them. The effects would overcome nations. When it comes to summer blockbusters, we take the popcorn and the movies with a good deal of salt. But disaster flicks are, if nothing else, a measure of the temperature of the time. Film historians may look back at a movie like this, as they look back at On the Beach and Dr. Strangelove in light of the atomic age, and note that our culture was beginning to sweat in 2004. Let’s hope the historians are not doing it from waterfront property in Beverly Hills.

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POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

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SCOTT MOWBRAY [email protected]

Editor-in-Chief Scott Mowbray Deputy Editor Mark Jannot Design Director Dirk Barnett Features Editor Emily Laber-Warren Science Editor Dawn Stover Senior Technology Editor Suzanne Kantra Kirschner Senior Editor, What’s New Eric Hagerman Aviation & Automotive Editor Eric Adams Managing Editor Jill C. Shomer Senior Associate Editors Nicole Dyer, Michael Moyer Associate Editor Greg Mone Assistant Editors Mike Haney, Martha Harbison Assistant Editor, Best of What’s New Joe Brown Deputy Art Director Hylah Hill Assistant Art Director Josh McKible Designer April Bell Photo Editor Kristine LaManna Staff Photographer John B. Carnett Editorial Assistant Barbara Caraher Web Producer Peter Noah Consulting Editor Jeffrey Rothfeder Graphics Consultant John Grimwade Contributing Design Editor Chee Pearlman Contributing Automotive Editor Stephan Wilkinson Far East Contributing Editor Dennis Normile Contributing Editors Dan Carney, Rebecca Skloot, Bill Sweetman, Charles Wardell Contributing Futurist Andrew Zolli Contributing Artists Mika Grondahl, Jason Lee, John MacNeill, Garry Marshall, Stephen Rountree, Bob Sauls Art Intern Peter Oumanski

CONTRIBUTORS

What would happen if some cruel deity (say, oh, a POPSCI editor) suddenly deprived you of all the technology introduced in the past 50 years? Writer LARRY SMITH (left) found out when he exchanged his cellphone, iPod, cable TV and Internet service for a rotary-dial phone, a Columbia phonograph, a black-and-white Zenith TV and a Royal typewriter (page 74). “I even bought a fedora,” Smith says, “but I felt foolish wearing it.” During Smith’s 10-day retrotech exercise, he was forced to nurse a crushing hangover with naught but aspirin and rotgut hair of the dog, crouch in front of the TV for lack of a remote, and wheedle cash from a real, live bank teller. Still, there were benefits to the low-tech life: the peacefulness Smith discovered when walking down the street or relaxing at home without myriad distractions. Illustrator TAVIS COBURN (right), who created the images that accompany the story, echoed Smith’s love-hate feelings about technology. While Coburn adores his computer so much he FedExed it to himself when he moved back to Toronto from California, he concedes that being shackled to tech robs life of certain basic pleasures: “I haven’t even looked outside today,” he says. “The weather report’s right there on my Blackberry.”

After reading the script of this summer’s climate-disaster flick The Day After Tomorrow, writer MATTHEW TEAGUE sought reassurance from the experts (page 56). “I thought the first one would tell me it was wrong,” he says. “When he didn’t, I thought, ‘Well, the second expert will.’ ” Instead, all three researchers confirmed the worst: Climate change could happen rapidly, catastrophically—and soon. For an article about Boeing’s business woes, illustrator RYAN HESHKA created a mirror-image portrait of the 7E7 Dreamliner, the airplane that could be Boeing’s savior or its demise (page 94). Says Heshka, “My main challenge was not to seem too dark and gloomy.” In this age of Photoshop, Heshka is resolutely old school: He paints in gouache on illustration board, then puts the work in the mail. Each month in our You 2.0 column (page 105), STEVE CASIMIRO explores human interactions with tech. This time around, Casimiro, a sports-tech convert (“I was an anti-heart-monitor guy until a friend, who used one regularly, crushed me like a little bug”), treats a skiing-induced bum knee with a $2,000 device that pumps ice water through sleeves to regulate temperature and pressure. The drama-packed qualifying rounds for the DARPA Grand Challenge robotic vehicle race, held a few days prior to the race, provided a jolt to the adrenal glands. “It was immediately clear that anything could happen,” says photographer MICHAEL DARTER. The race itself ended in disappointment and vehicle failure (page 84). But for a few hours there, says Darter, “It was like ‘Wow! This could actually work!’ ” POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

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LETTERS [email protected] Mountain to seep into your groundwater, a figure confirmed by the Department of Energy.

Brother, We Weren’t Fooling

To the Moon? Not Again! I’m a generally spacey guy so I’m sorry to be such a stick-in-the-moon-dust, but why should NASA tear up half a dozen programs that could provide real scientific value to go to a place where we’ve already been [“Are We Really Going to the Moon Again?” April]? What could we possibly do on the Moon that we can’t do on the ISS or the like—and possibly for cheaper— since a space base could be built without respect for gravity? What benefit does a lunar base provide over a space port, where we could build relatively fast space-faring ships without any need for a hefty weight-supporting frame? There is more design flexibility in space than in a gravity well, which would provide a significant cost benefit to the whole operation. Brian J. Teegardin Detroit, Mich. Reassessing Radioactivity You called the used radioactive material destined for Yucca Mountain [“Conspicuous Construction,” April] “this dangerous waste.” Well, water is dangerous too: People simply have to learn the safety rules when they’re around it. Dose rates from radioactivity are the real safety issues. The isotopes of most concern are those with middle-range half-lives. As for short-lived isotopes, people simply need to keep their distance from such elements until they’ve gone through approximately seven halflives (not the 10 that you say). That puts their dose rate under 0.8 percent of their original. Isotopes with extremely long half-lives don’t pose such a great threat because 10

POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

their dose rates are very low— or else how could they have such long half-lives? You also mislead your readers by saying it will take 240,000 years before plutonium is safe when it’s obvious that the danger decreases 50 percent for each half-life plutonium goes through. Glen Howard Idaho Falls, Idaho Editor’s reply: While we may quibble over the number of half-lives required before a given radioactive element is safe to handle—scientists have quoted anywhere from 7 to 20 half-lives for plutonium-239 —our fundamental point remains the same: It will take at least 240,000 years before you’d want the high-level waste stored in Yucca

Your article “My Little Brother on Drugs” [April] was almost plausible given the increasing popularity of vanity, drug use and distracted parenting in our society. I almost believed that parents could condemn their 9-year-old son to years of needle pricks and drug use, at a cost of $160,000, for a few extra inches of height at adulthood. I closed the magazine in disgust, then noticed the issue date—April. What a relief! This was, of course, your April Fool’s joke, and I fell for it. Good one. Pete Theodore Crestline, Calif.

_FROM THE BLOGS

Last month, over 350 Web logs linked to popsci.com. A sample: My Little Brother on Drugs_ One article in the April issue stands out from the rest, and not for its high-tech content or for its spectacular graphics. It’s a simple article entitled “My Little Brother on Drugs.” And these aren’t street drugs . . . posted by Brian DeMarzo, DeMarzo.net demarzo.net

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FROM “AHAB, CAPTAIN” TO “ZERO-TO-SIXTY”

Your guide to this month’s POPSCI AHAB, CAPTAIN

PAGE 92

AUTONOMOUS MAYHEM

86

BODY PACKERS

38

BUNCH OF CROOKS

96

CASEY JONES

36

CELESTIAL JUKEBOX

80

CELL HACKING

43

CHURCHILLIAN FORMULATION

90

CLASSIC MAKEOUT CAR

82

CORPORATE GROUPTHINK

112

DEADMAN THROTTLE

36

DISASTER FLICK

58

DOUBLE-BAGGED CONDOM

39

ELECTROMAGNETIC RAILGUN

65

EXERCYCLE SWEATBOX

144

FEDORA

80

FLAMEOUT, INGLORIOUS

86

GRACE UNDER PRESSURE

92

HAIL CANNON

144

HAIR DRYER, WORLD’S LARGEST

35

IRON GORILLA

32

LEATHERMAN OF JETS

96

MELTON WOOL

76

MENTAL SPAM

54

METAL STORM

64

MIXED REALITY

15

MYDOOM, FUTURE OF

101

NANOGRASS

50

OVERDOSE, MASSIVE

40

PROSUMER DIGITALS

101

RODS FROM GOD

70

RYE WHISKEY

80

SHAKEDOWN ARTIST

88

SHOCK THERAPY

124

SONOFUSION

53

STORMS, APOCALYPTIC

59

STORMY TIMES

96

STRATOCRUISER

96

SUBARCTIC TEMPERATURES

59

SUPERCAVITATING TORPEDO

67

TAJIKISTAN

108

VICTORY OR DEATH

90

ZERO-TO-60

32

INSIDE: CELLPHONE CAMERAS 16

•

THE FUTURE OF GAMING 18

•

GEEKING OUT IN THE WILD 22

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TICK KILLER 26

What’sNew

SHE’LL DRIVE YOU CRAZY TOYOTA’S CONCEPT MTRC

C O U R T E S Y T O Y O TA M O T O R C O R P.

SERVES UP A PRETTY PICTURE OF AUTO SOFTWARE TECH.

Want to take this baby out? You’ll need a PlayStation 2. The only place you can drive Toyota’s Motor Triathlon Race Car—a rig designed to handle a track, street circuit or rally course equally well—is in the forthcoming video game Gran Turismo 4. That doesn’t mean its marquee innovation is pure fantasy. Called Mixed Reality (a joint venture between Toyota, Denso and Canon), the technology is a computerized imaging system that makes performance adjustments on the fly. We already have cars that adapt to changing road conditions, but the MTRC is the first that could anticipate them. A helmet-mounted camera videos oncoming terrain and a computer reacts: the system can raise, lower, stiffen or soften the suspension as needed. It also directs electric motors at each wheel. It’s a shame the MTRC will never run, but there’s no reason its tech couldn’t find its way into a real car.—JOE BROWN

It’s a one-door. No, a hatch-side. Put it this way: The left flank of the tandem-style MTRC pivots upwards 90 degrees for you and your navigator.

POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

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What’sNew

CELLPHONE CAMERAS

WANT TO BE A PAPARAZZO? YOUR MOBILE GETS

MORE MEGAPIXELS. YOU GET LEGIT PRINTS.

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THE IMPROMPTU PHOTOGRAPHER

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POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

THE BLOGGER

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FRONT: A PHONE BACK: A CAMERA

NEXT UP: LIQUID ZOOM LENSES • Digital zooms lose quality. Opticals

don’t, but they’re bulky. So Philips lined a tiny cylinder with a hydrophobic film that squeezes water into a convex state—a lens. Zapped with electricity, the film forgets its phobia, lets the water spread, and alters the convexity. Two stacked make a cellsized optical zoom. ETA: two years.

LIGHT

1

3 MM DIAMETER

LENS

HYDROPHOBIC FILM

2

CURRENT

C L O C K W I S E F R O M T O P L E F T: C O U R T E S Y K Y O C E R A ; C O U R T E S Y M O T O R O L A ; C O U R T E S Y L G ; C O U R T E S Y N O K I A ; C O U R T E S Y S O N Y ( 2 ) ; J A S O N L E E

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THE MOBILE WEBCAM

THE TRANSFORMER

THE PHONES

1] THE TRANSFORMER The Sony Ericsson S700 makes the complete transformation from cellphone to camera. Hold it horizontally, frame your shot in the LCD and press the top-mounted shutter release. SPECS: 1.3MP; 8x digital zoom; 2.3-inch display; 7 hours talk time; 4.83 ounces; Bluetooth 2] THE IMPROMPTU PHOTOGRAPHER No need to choose between taking a call and taking a picture with Kyocera’s Koi. You can do both since the answer button remains accessible in camera mode. SPECS: 1.2MP; 5x digital zoom; 2.1-inch display; 3.5 hours talk time; 4.02 ounces 3] THE BEAUTY QUEEN Tired of squinting to see yourself in the mini mirror some cellphones use for self-portraits? Motorola’s V710 employs a 1.3-inch external LCD as a second viewfinder. SPECS: 1.2MP; 4x digital zoom; 2.2-inch display; 4 hours talk time; 4.6 ounces; Bluetooth; MP3 4] THE MOBILE WEBCAM Like these other models LG’s LG8000 takes videos. But thanks to its compatibility with Verizon’s highspeed (300 to 500kbps) EV-DO network, it’s also capable of working as a webcam. SPECS: 1.3MP; 10x digital zoom; 2.25-inch display; 3 hours talk time; 3.9 ounces; external color LCD 5] THE BLOGGER By tracking your appointments, the calls you make and the photos you take, Nokia’s 7610 Lifeblog creates an online diary of your day. Just don’t ask us to suffer through it. SPECS: 1MP; 4x digital zoom; 2.13-inch display; 3 hours talk time; 4.16 ounces; Bluetooth; MP3

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4

THE BEAUTY QUEEN

D

Last year, camera cellphones were something of a novelty. Their optical sensors captured VGAquality stills at best (that’s about half a megapixel), so the resulting shots were destined to live in the digital realm. This summer, 1-megapixel combos capable of producing album-worthy 3-by-5-inch prints hit stores. One-hour photo outlets are capitalizing: Already you can point your 1MP mobile at a wireless, digital photo kiosk and—like that!— print your snapshots. Prices for these models will range up to $600, and by the time you read this, mobile carriers will have announced which phones they’ll offer. Or, wait another year and pick up a 2MP version.—SUZANNE KANTRA KIRSCHNER

What’sNew

GAMING

DEVELOPERS EMBRACE THE PIECE PROCESS A NEW APPROACH TO BUILDING GAMES CRANKS UP CREATIVITY.

DEVELOPMENT COST OF A HIT GAME* 6† 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

*AS ESTIMATED BY DFC INTELLIGENCE; †IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

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POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

GEOFFREY GRAHN

If you’re waiting for PlayStation 3 or Xbox 2 to spice up life on the couch, don’t hold your breath. Console gamers won’t be getting next-gen hardware anytime soon. This spring, both Sony and Microsoft told antsy fans that their focus for the foreseeable future will be on developing great software for their existing platforms. Sounds like a cop-out, but there may be something to their strategy. The ostensible idea is to give developers a stable platform to work from, and thus unleash their creativity. According to Robbie Bach, head of Microsoft’s games division, 80 percent of the time spent producing a game traditionally has gone into programming and only 20 percent into design—the creation of new worlds, characters, plotlines. Maintaining the hardware status quo dovetails nicely with an emerging software trend. In the past few years, developers have begun using a modular strategy to build games, rather than starting from scratch for each one. Middleware developers now design off-the-shelf tools and special effects that “plug in” to the prefab code of a game engine; the end product is often good enough for top-tier publishers. The impressively realistic physics in Eidos’s Deus Ex: Invisible War and Rockstar Games’ Max Payne 2, which came out in late 2003, were both built on this model.

Given the complexity of engineering convincing graphics, lifelike movement and artificial intelligence, it makes sense to farm out work to software boutiques. Take physics modeling: It used to be that when you shot a bad guy you saw a canned animation. Now we expect “ragdoll” physics, in which a slavering zombie’s body reacts differently depending on where it’s hit, and with what. Happily, code jockeys at middleware outfits like Havok and Renderware have mastered Newton’s minutiae and can deliver a ready-made solution. To wit: When the giants in Lionhead Studios’ forthcoming Black and White 2 hurl boulders at innocent villagers, the resulting carnage will be modeled on a Renderware physics engine. Now publishers can concentrate on creating content— eye-popping visuals, stirring audio, dazzling dialogue and, dare we hope, innovative gameplay—instead of noodling with software code. After all, it’s such trappings that make the upcoming Shadow Ops: Red Mercury different from Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, even though they’re both built on the UnrealEngine2 technology. Under the new paradigm it probably won’t be long before even these titles feel dated.—STEVE MORGENSTERN

What’sNew

GAMING

MOBILES GET 3-D GRAPHICS

YOU WILL PLAY, AND YOU WILL LIKE IT

THE NEW FORCES OF DOOM CLEVER CODE AND SOUPED UP VIDEO CARDS

GIVE THIS SUMMER’S BLOCKBUSTER A REAL EDGE.

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POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

POCKET ROCKET

HANDHELD GAMING FOR GROWN UPS. Sony’s forthcoming mobile-gaming platform, the PlayStation Portable, is no Game Boy wannabe. It’s a sophisticated multimedia companion built for gaming, but also music, movies and photos. From the demonstrations we’ve seen, it might rival PlayStation 2 for power. The graphics are rich, and the animation smooth. It should be available by March 2005, though Sony hasn’t set a price. Below are the specs we know thus far.—S.M. DISPLAY: widescreen LCD (480 by 272 pixels) GAME MEDIA: 1.8GB proprietary UMD disc VIDEO OUT: none COMMUNICATIONS: Wi-Fi EXPANSION: Memory Stick slot

F R O M L E F T: C O U R T E S Y i d S O F T WA R E ; C O U R T E S Y N O K I A

The theory of designing 3-D graphics has always been the more polygons the better. They’re the building blocks that inform the structure of objects in games. But id Software’s long-awaited Doom 3 ($55), which comes out next month, subscribes to a different theory. While this version does have more polygons, the real trick is packing them with detail—layering lighting, reflections and other effects onto each one to achieve near Shrek-quality graphics. They’ve also upped the realism of Doom 3 with sophisticated lighting physics. In the past, lighting effects were prerendered animations that played out the same way regardless of the source. Now the software knows how light actually works. Snuff out the torches in a cavern and the place goes black. Swing from a chandelier and shadows skitter around the room as they would in real life. Another first: per-pixel collision detection. Rockets will now fly between your enemy’s legs or soar past his shoulder, rather than treating him as a solid block. Naturally, to experience the full complement of Doom 3’s stunning visual effects, you’ll need to invest in some new hardware: a PCI Express graphics card from ATI or nVidia and a new PC with Intel’s Alderwood or Grantsdale chipset with the card slots to support them. The new high-speed graphics cards have two separate paths totaling 4GB of bandwidth, versus the single shared 2GB path used by current AGP (Advance Graphic Processor) graphics cards. Translated, that means you get a much wider data pipe. Might be a good idea to buy a comfortable desk chair as well.—STEVEN KENT

Whether you want it or not, full-blown 3-D games with graphics to rival console versions are coming to your mobile phone. For some, they’re already here: AT&T’s mMode has offered boxing and bass fishing in 3-D since March (on Nokia’s 3620, 3650 and 6820). This fall, inexpensive phones with such capabilities will flood the U.S. market. If you want today’s ultimate gaming handset, take a look at Nokia’s revised N-Gage QD. It keeps the best of the original— Bluetooth for head-to-head battle and a bright 2.5-inch screen— while fixing its primary flaws. Nokia moved the speaker so you can actually use it as a phone; the game card slot is more accessible; and it nearly doubles the battery life at 5-10 hours. It’s also 20 percent smaller.—STEVE MORGENSTERN

What’sNew

RECREATION

GEEKS GONE WILD ESSENTIALS? NOT EXACTLY. BUT THE OUTDOORS

❯

WOULDN’T BE HALF AS MUCH FUN WITHOUT THIS ROSTER OF DELUXE CAMPSITE GEAR.

Some folks head to the hills for serenity, a chance to simplify. Or worse, to rough it. Not us. We view every rendezvous with Ma Nature, at least in part, as an opportunity to update our cache of outdoor tech. Herewith, everything the equipment hound might need to enjoy the woods this summer—on his own terms.—ED FINN

|1| MOUNTAIN HARDWEAR MOUNTAIN JET 3 Welded seams—glued under high heat and pressure—joining the roof and floor mean resilient waterproofness in this two-door, three-person tent. 6 pounds, 3 ounces. $265; mountainhardwear.com |2| UNCLE MILTON X4 METAL DETECTOR ROVER Keep the youngsters occupied at the campground with a remote-control car, which sounds an alarm when its built-in metal detector finds gold—or a rusty tin. $35; unclemilton.com (available in fall)

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|3| GIANT INTERNATIONAL T5SMS Use your two-way radios to textmessage a request for s’mores (on a qwerty keyboard) while you’re still five miles out. It has 5 frequencies and 38 private codes. $100 a pair; giantintl.com (available late summer) |4| PANASONIC TOUGHBOOK 18 Naturally, it has a shock-mounted hard drive, magnesium alloy case and a moisture-resistant keyboard. It also doubles as a tablet PC and runs on a 900MHz Centrino processor. $3,800; panasonic.com

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POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

STAY IN TOUCH

|5| WEBER BABY Q GRILL At 14 inches tall and 35 pounds, it’s a pint-size version of your deck grill. Meaning it gives you real flames, at 8,500 Btu per hour, thanks to the mini propane tank. $150; weber.com |6| NITE IZE FLASHFLIGHT DISC-O In the dark, a color-changing LED and fiber-optic array turn this disc into a well-identified flying object. $23; niteize.com |7| EXCALIBUR EXOMAX CROSSBOW Limbs that curve away from the stock when they’re unstrung power your bolts at 350 feet per sec-

WIRELESS POWER AND CONNECTIVITY

THE ÜBERNERD IN THE ROUGH

7

Siemens M65 The first ruggedized camera phone: resistant to shock, water and grit. Buy it overseas; use it here. Price not set; siemens.com

8

F R O M T O P : C O U R T E S Y S I E M E N S ; C O U R T E S Y H E AT H E R W I L L I A M S ; C O U R T E S Y I C P S O L A R ; I N S E T: C O U R T E S Y B E N C H M A D E K N I V E S

ond, faster than any other. $880 with scope kit; excaliburcrossbow.com |8| SUUNTO X9 Lock a waypoint into the X9 and get lost. This GPS-altimetercompass watch can lead you home. $725; suunto.com |9| BUZZ OFF/ ORVIS CLOTHING Working with Buzz Off, Orvis is using a chemical derived from an insect-repelling breed of African chrysanthemums in its new line of bugbeating clothing. The chemical is added to the fabric in a process not unlike dry cleaning. Marquesas Shirt, $69; Marquesas zip-off pants, $89; Invincible Socks $45 for three pairs (note: we recommend against pulling them up to your calves when wearing shorts); orvis.com |10| BENCHMADE 160 TETHER KNIFE A thermal-plastic coating on the handle provides a strong grip without conducting temperature. $70; benchmade.com |11| NIKE AIR ZOOM TALLAC Your hiking boots don’t have to be clunky blister factories: Nike’s new Tallacs weigh a pound apiece. Gore-Tex keeps the elements at bay. $140; nike.com

9

Databahn Mobile T1 Satellite System Aim this dish at the southern sky, and it’ll pull in Internet access, a TV signal and phone service anywhere in the lower 48. $4,000; thedatabahn.com

10

11

PHOTOGRAPH BY JONATHAN KANTOR

Coleman Exponent Flex 5 Soak up rays with this solar panel and juice most handheld devices in a few hours. $120; colemansolar.com

POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

23

HOME

GRASS GUZZLER

HATE MOWING? TRY IT FROM YOUR LAWN CHAIR—WITH A REMOTE.

Necessity? Bah. Laziness is the true mother of invention. Just ask Luis Medina, 36, an electrical engineer in Tarpon Springs, Florida, where the steamy summer days are ideal for growing grass, horrible for cutting it. Forced by his stringent neighborhood association to mow every week, Medina made a machine to ease his sweaty task: the Evatech RCLM2004S remote control lawnmower. “Now I can kick back and relax in the shade,” Medina says. “And laugh at the people who have to push their lawnmower.”—JOE BROWN

ONE SMART CHOPPER

The brain comprises an AM receiver, microprocessors and a gyroscope. Three 20MHz microprocessors translate analog signals from the remote into digital values for speed and direction to control the rear wheels. The gyroscope senses if the mower runs off course and signals the microprocessors to redirect the wheels accordingly.

SPECS

What’sNew

EVATECH RCLM2004S Base Price: $2,200 Curb Weight:115 lb. Peak Power (gas engine): 6.5 hp Top Speed: 8 mph Fuel Economy: 4 acres/gallon Remote Range: 2,000 feet Units produced: 8 Contact: evatech.net

THE HYBRID POWER SYSTEM

DIVISION OF LABOR

ENGINE

BATTERY

THE BRAIN ELECTRIC MOTOR

ALTERNATOR

Separating power sources for the blade and wheels means no transmission. •12V, 280 amp battery starts the engine when signaled by the remote. It drives the wheels till the alternator gets up to speed. • 6.5 hp Briggs & Stratton engine turns the cutting blade and runs the alternator. The alternator powers the electric motors (which drive the wheels) and, of course, charges the battery.

THE KEY TO LEISURE

The remote’s joystick controls speed and direction. Two AM channels let you switch frequencies should one be occupied by a neighbor’s 1/10-scale monster truck.

INFOGRAPHIC: JASON LEE; CHARLES MARAIA (2)

24

POPULAR SCIENCE

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What’sNew

[WIRE] 06.2004

PICTURE THIS

A SNEAKY LITTLE INNOVATION DESIGNED TO THWART LYME DISEASE

• Deer ticks aren’t born with Lyme disease. They pick it up while feeding on the blood of infected rodents—namely mice and chipmunks. Knowing this, the CDC and Bayer Environmental Science developed the Maxforce Tick Management System: cigar-box-shaped plastic traps that kill ticklets with Fipronil but leave rodents unharmed. In tests, tick populations dropped by 97 percent in two years.

•From the crypt: the Mummy’s naked mechanical skeleton.

LEAN, MEAN, FREAKING MACHINE

Universal Studios Orlando unwraps a frighteningly limber mummy at its new amusement park ride.

26

POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

FROM TOP: GEOFFREY GRAHN; COURTESY UNIVERSAL ORLANDO

He’s 6 feet 8, 650 pounds, and he’s got 40 different moves. If Universal Studios Orlando’s new animatronic mummy ever plays ball, make sure he’s on your team. The creature is the namesake of the $80 million Revenge of the Mummy thrill ride, which opened in May. Built of thousands of parts that are articulated by 1,000 feet of 4,000psi hydraulic tubing, the robot has four times the technical agility of state-of-the-art animatronics. All this equipment goes toward mimicking the countless motions that make up human movement. Universal has developed new forcefeedback algorithms to perfectly emulate the speed and fluidity of an (undead) human. A control computer monitors the position, velocity and force of every twitch to make sure he doesn’t run amok during his 15second choreographed appearance—which he performs more than 1,500 times a day. Like we said, the guy’s got hustle.—ERIC MINTON

What’sNew

[WIRE]

STATS Numbers

2003 VEHICLE SALES BY GENDER

06.2004

C MID OMPA -SIZ CT, SIZE E, FULLCAR S LUXU SPO RY A RTS ND CAR S PICK UPS

2,744,669 577,148

2,610,186

• Capless, electrically rotated ball valves

provide hands-free fueling and fluid refilling.

WHAT WOMEN WANT Swedish concept: sexy or sexist? Volvo’s YCC concept car, designed entirely by a team of female engineers and stylists, met with snickers and smart-ass comments from the good-ol’-boys club when it debuted at the Geneva Motor Show in March. It’s loaded with simplifying features ostensibly designed to attract a female audience. For instance, only mechanics can open the hood, on the assumption that women don’t want to mess with what’s under it. We got our macho going and confronted Lena Ekelund, a deputy manager of the design team. She did OK.—STEPHAN WILKINSON

2,731,712

981,508

WORST DRIVERS

BEST DRIVERS

152 43 NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS PER 1,000 DRIVERS PER YEAR

STUDENT MEDICAL

DOCTOR

109

ATTORNEY 106 ARCHITECT 105

REAL ESTATE BROKER

102

FARMER FIREMAN 67

PILOT 75

HOMEMAKER

76 POLITICIAN 76

COMMON DRIVING DISTRACTIONS % OF SUBJECTS

GUILTY OF

DURING % OF DRIVING TIME

91.4

Manipulating music/ audio controls

1.35

77.1

Conversing

15.32

71.4

Eating, drinking, spilling

1.45

45.7

Grooming

0.28

40

Reading or writing

0.67

30

Using a cellphone

1.3

7.1

Smoking

1.55

PASSENGER VEHICLE DEATH RATES

25*

MALE OCCUPANTS FEMALE OCCUPANTS

20 15

10 5

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

*NUMBER OF OCCUPANTS KILLED PER 100,000 POPULATION

SOURCES: J.D. POWER, QUALITY PLANNING CORPORATION, AAA FOUNDATION FOR TRAFFIC SAFETY, INSURANCE INSTITUTE FOR HIGHWAY SAFETY–HIGHWAY LOSS DATA INSTITUTE

28

POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

C O U R T E S Y V O LV O

Popular Science: Why aim a car at women? Lena Ekelund: They’re the most demanding customers. We found that the demands of women are higher than those of men, even on performance. PS: Did it concern you that the YCC would be perceived as a girly car? LE: When people see what we have done with this broad-shouldered, muscular, sleek thing … girls like boys with muscles, and I guess we like cars with muscles as well. PS: Which of its features will go into production? LE: I’m not allowed to tell you, but if you look at Volvos three years from now, you’ll be surprised. PS: American women are a frightened lot. Did you consider making the YCC a fortress car, maybe with a 360-degree Mace sprayer? LE: We do have a feature that will tell you if anyone has been tampering with the car. When you get within range of the car, the key flashes red to warn you that perhaps you don’t want to open it on your own. PS: Why make it seem like women have no mechanical ability by making the engine inaccessible? LE: I don’t think there are many guys who would be able to do anything constructive to fix a modern engine either. What are you going to do, replace the fan belt? You’d have to disassemble half the engine bay. PS: Driving skills are already on the decline. Won’t features like automatic parking worsen the situation? LE: I don’t think driver skill is dependent on whether you’re good at parallel parking. Having good visibility and feeling in control is much more important. In Germany, they already have sensors making sure cars don’t get too close on the Autobahn. I am not personally fond of that; I want to be the one in control.

1,611,232 416,651

3,317,044

1,105,847

553,676

SUV S VAN S

that count.

FEMALE

MALE

What’sNew

MUST-SEE TECHNOLOGY

THEGOODS 2O SERIOUSLY HOT PRODUCTS THAT (ALMOST) SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES. Armed with Data

SwissMemory USB pocketknife >> Swiss Army found something else to build into a knife. USB key removable for air travel. Available in 64MB or 128MB. Price not set; victorinox.com

The Perfect Roommate

Gerber Inferno >> Each of its flexible arms is tipped with an LED bulb, so you can aim light in several directions. $55; gerbergear.com

Kärcher RoboCleaner >> When it’s full of dust bunnies, this robot vacuum roves until it finds the infrared beam that’ll guide it back to its base. $1,500; robocleaner.de

No Patience? No Problem.

Eastman Outdoors Reveo >> A rotating, vacuum-sealed cylinder does two days worth of marinating in 20 minutes. $200; freethemeat.org

A Better Nozzle

Craftsman Easy Squeeze >> A reversed trigger lets you pull with your strongest digits, so you can handle that garden hose with authority. $10; sears.com

Motor Minder

Names That Tune

Audiovox Vox 8610 >> Dial *ID, hold the handset up to a speaker for 15 seconds, and Virgin Mobile texts you the song name. $119; virginmobileusa.com

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POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

A Flashlight with Flair

Craftsman Fresh Start >> A dispenser nested in the gas cap gradually releases a chemical to stabilize the fuel in your dormant mower. $17; craftsman.com

Power Suit

Solar SCOTTeVest >> Recharge electronics while you wander: Solar panels on the back juice a power pack that can top off a cellphone battery in 3 hours. $475; scottevest.com

Stay in Line

Iteris AutoVue Lane Departure Warning System >> An onboard camera and computer alert you when you switch lanes without signaling. Look for it on the Infinity FX45. iteris.com

Poor Man’s Segway

Inside Job

Serengeti Stratus Titanium >> A polarizing filter can’t scratch when it’s built into plastic lenses—a first. $200; serengeti-eyewear.com

Body Engine Scooter >> It doesn’t use gyroscopes and a balancing computer since it has four wheels rather than two. Goes 15 miles on a 10-hour charge. Holds 300 pounds. $1,300; shoplifestyle.com

The VolksBeemer

BMW SlideCarver >> Disc brakes, front suspension and pivoting rear wheels for precise cornering make this the one push scooter that qualifies as cool. $695; bmw-online.com

Nice Package

Palm Zire 72 >> An MP3 player, 1.2 MP camera that captures 15-framesper-second videos, Bluetooth radio, and 320-by-320-pixel color display all fit in this PDA’s 4.8-ounce body. 32MB. 312MHz processor. $300; palmone.com

Dyson Gets Down

Dyson DC11 Telescope Vacuum Cleaner >> Cupboard or display case? This stylish canister vacuum’s wand telescopes and the hose wraps around its body for compact storage. $500; dyson.com

Sony Ericsson MMV-100 >> Beam photos via Bluetooth from your Sony Ericsson cellphone to this gadget to display them on a TV. Uncer $200; sonyericsson.com

A Bona Fide Master of Stairs Tarantula >> Fully articulated arms mean that in addition to the backyard, this remotecontrol rover can tackle a terrain historically impossible for such toys: stairs. $100; mgae.com

Band Aid

Transperformance/Klein Acoustic Guitar >> Strings ride atop six piezo-electric chips that sense their frequency; internal motors tune them. $14,500; kleinguitars.com

Goodbye, Tungsten

Bluetooth Blowups

Enlux LED Flood Light >> The first LED drop-in replacement for a standard floodlight glows like a 60 watter, lasts 50,000 hours, and doesn’t get hot enough to pose a fire threat. $90; enluxled.com

Crazy Sound

Bang & Olufsen BeoLab 3 Speakers >> In addition to a five foot tall, $16,000 set, B&O’s Acoustic Lens technology—which sends out a 180-degree wave of sound—now comes in a bookshelf model. $3,000 a pair; bang-olufsen.com

Mindful Bindings

Atomic Neox EBM >> The first computerized ski bindings make sure you’re securely snapped in and alert you if you’re not. $1,050; atomic-usa.com

POPULAR SCIENCE

JUNE 2004

31

MAN & MACHINE BY STEPHAN WILKINSON HARD, FAST, SHINY OBJECTS & WHY WE LOVE THEM

Do The Locomotion: 207 Tons and 4,400 hp

GE’s Evolution does 0-60 in 45 seconds, unloaded. Braking is a different story: A full-on panic stop takes half a mile.

THEY SIT ON A SPUR OF TEST

32

POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

two V12 engines direct-driving alternators five feet in diameter. These are two of the most advanced dieselelectric locomotives in the world: GE Evolutions, running all-new powerplants designed specifically to meet stiff Tier II EPA locomotive emissions regulations that go into effect next year. You didn’t know locomotives had

emissions regs? Neither did I. I assumed that the 207-ton iron gorilla of the wheeled world damn well did whatever it wished. But the new Tier II standards require substantial cuts in NOx and particulate matter, and GE, one of the world’s major locomotive manufacturers, has designed a new engine to meet them handily. The engine has an

EDWIN FOTHERINGHAM

track outside General Electric’s locomotive factory in Erie, Pennsylvania, panting and grumbling like two old lions half asleep. The ominous, muttering rumble is the sound of 8,800 horsepower at idle—24 cylinders with pistons big as buckets, turbochargers the size of washing machines,

MAN & MACHINE

air-to-air turbocharger intercooler that lowers induction-air temperature to only a few degrees above ambient, for cleaner emissions and more power. Not only is the new GEVO 12 four-stroke diesel 40 percent cleaner than its predecessor, it’s three percent more fuelefficient as well. That may not sound like much, but it’s huge: A half-percent improvement is a big competitive advantage in loco sales. A locomotive typically burns about 300,000 gallons of fuel a year, and saving 9,000 gallons per engine can make a big bottom-line difference. A modern locomotive is a hybrid. The diesel doesn’t drive the train; it cranks an alternator, which powers the six huge electric traction motors that actually turn the locomotive’s wheels. Each motor is set transversely between a pair of drive wheels. On an Evolution the electric motors will put out a total of

almost 60,000 pound-feet of torque at start-up—the equivalent of about 120 Ferrari Enzos—good for a zero-to-60 time, unloaded, of just shy of 45 seconds. Rather longer, though, if you’re dragging a 17,000-trailing-ton coal train. The traction motors also brake the train. When the driver (“engineer” no longer being the term) wants to slow down, he turns the motors into generators, reversing the field so they’re making electricity rather than consuming it, and are thereby magnetically resisting the turning of the wheels. This is a lot cheaper than replacing brake shoes, which won’t last long if asked to hold back a train that is as heavy as a tramp freighter. The wheel brakes are used only at slow speeds and to bring the train to a complete stop. The excess current produced is dissipated by a series of big, fan-cooled “dynamic-brake grids,” effectively the

world’s largest hair dryer, near the top of the car body, toward the back. Does the grid actually glow, I ask lead systems engineer Mike Schell? “It does when it catches fire,” he says with a straight face. But even with the blowers at work, you wouldn’t be able to tolerate the compartment where the grid lives. How much fun is it to drive a locomotive? Not much. The machine has its eye on you, and headquarters has its eye on the machine from a distance. Every 2 minutes (every 30 seconds when the train is traveling faster than 50 mph), a big red caution light that reads “alerter reset” glows on the driver’s panel. The driver has 25 seconds to slap a yellow switch to affirm that he is indeed present and accounted for. If he doesn’t, the power automatically backs down and then the brakes come on—hard. This is the modern

MAN & MACHINE

equivalent of the deadman throttle. The fear of the out-of-control train traces partly to the era in which engineers sat in the very nose of the train rather than farther back in what’s today called a safety cab. Up front, they would occasionally experience a mesmerizing vertigo brought on by the drivers’ eyes following each passing cross tie as it rushes under the cowcatcher. Lightplane pilots are prey to similar phenomenon, flicker vertigo, caused by looking at a bright light through idling prop blades. The accountants in a railroad com-

passing no-horn-blowing-after-midnight noise-pollution regulations, even this weapon is being disarmed. Granted, a train weighing thousands of tons is going to turn even a 4-ton dually pickup into shrapnel, but the front end of a locomotive is not a nice place to be when the blast goes off. The Evolution driver sits in a kind of glass cockpit, behind two large CRT monitors upon which he can call up some 30 different graphic pages of instruments, gauges, graphs and information, with a separate monitor for the helper. Every aspect of the engine’s

How much fun is it to drive?

Not much. The machine has its eye on you, and HQ has its eye on the machine from a distance. pany hate hard braking, especially if it means replacing tracks scalloped by sliding steel wheels. But almost every day it happens somewhere in the country, typically at grade crossings. The biggest danger a loco crew faces, up there on the pointy end of the engine, is not the high-speed Casey Jones crash but the drunk in the pickup truck trying to weave through the crossing gates at three in the morning. “People think trains can stop like cars,” says GE product-line manager Peter Lawson. Clearly people are not thinking. It can take half a mile to panicstop a loaded train. Since four-bar crossing gates that completely block the road are roughly twice as expensive as the standard twobar gates, railroad companies are loath to install them. Indeed, many rural crossings are still totally ungated, which means that a train has to stop so the driver’s helper can climb out and physically halt traffic. There’s nothing much a loco driver can do when approaching a gated crossing but blow the horn, particularly if he’s ballin’ the jack to stay on schedule. And with increasing numbers of municipalities

health can be tracked, and GE monitors most of its locomotives remotely, via GPS and an OnStar-like link to the Erie factory. The telemetry will spot a fault and transmit data to the closest service shop, telling the technicians what the problem is. They will alert the crew to stop if the problem is urgent. Toughest duty for a crew is not a zillion-ton coal drag two miles long. No, the worst kind of trip features a bunch of ungated crossings as well as car exchanges that require the drivers to constantly climb in and out of the train. Can a sloppy driver abuse a $2 million engine? Not really, says Schell. “There’s nothing he can do to hurt it. We’ve got enough protection and warnings in place to protect the temps and pressures, the cooling water, the oil, everything. The only people who can hurt an engine are the railroads, by not doing the proper maintenance.” Still, between each of the alerter resets, humans are in control, and they can lose control. GE’s short test track in Erie ends “in a pile of dirt and a nice old lady’s yard,” says Lawson, “which we’ve needed to landscape a couple of times.” ■

The Little Inbox That Could: write Stephan Wilkinson at [email protected]

CRIME SEEN BY JESSICA SNYDER SACHS AT THE INTERSECTION OF

SCIENCE & CRIME

DrugCartelsRaisethe GamefortheMuleTrackers It’s called body packing, it’s dangerous and gross, and new technology makes gut-based drug smuggling harder to spot.

SPECIAL AGENT CHRIS TROJAN

38

POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

hoods around John F. Kennedy International Airport for a particular class of arriving travelers. Trojan—his short hair wet and spiky, his ruddy face freshly shaved— falls in with the crowd long enough to trade the expected verbal abuse and extract his partner for the day. In such a cluster, the officers’ street clothes present a rather homogeneous look of faded blue jeans topped by dark Windbreakers or leather jackets. When they

ALAIN PILON

pulls into the parking lot of a convenience store in Ozone Park, Queens, and spots a half dozen colleagues lingering out front, exchanging morning banter and finishing second cups and cigarettes. The previous afternoon, at the Drug Enforcement Administration’s New York offices in Manhattan, Trojan’s unit had looked at the week’s open schedule and decided to start this day trolling the neighbor-

have dispersed across the local neighborhoods, these undercover uniforms will blend in with the sidewalk traffic to all but the keenest drug dealers and street runners. Today, Trojan’s unit is looking for less experienced quarry. They are hunting for “swallowers,” drug couriers who rent out their bodies as cargo containers, each carrying upwards of a kilo, or 2.2 pounds, of packaged narcotics. It’s an old trick, body packing, but on the rise, and getting more sophisticated. Increased airport security has caused some drug cartels to shift a majority of their small shipments out of carry-on baggage and into the less easily searched internal compartments of the “mule.” Trojan and his partner walk toward Rockaway Boulevard, where they begin conducting the kind of ad hoc street interviews—“Excuse me, sir, may we talk with you for a minute?”— that occasionally lead to the arrest of heroin smugglers arriving from Central or South America, on their way to make connections in the neighborhoods that surround the airport. Search and seizure laws say that suspects don’t have to let agents look in their bags. “But,” says Trojan, “believe it or not, they usually do. I think they’re afraid they’ll look guilty if they don’t.” In the drug-refining centers of Central and South America, the cartels target the nondescript—middle-class workers, women, even children—and groom them for the task of swallowing as many as 100 packages the thickness and shape of fat breakfast sausages. Some swallowers are naturals, while others build up to the task with a

succession of gradually larger objects such as grapes and baby carrots. “It has more to do with psychology than the size of the person,” says Trojan, who has arrested small-framed women carrying far more cargo than that found inside men twice their size. Once packed, the courier must slip unsuspected through airport customs and try to rendezvous with his or her connection before the cargo starts passing of its own accord. Nature determines the timetable here. Occasionally agents end up making their arrests as suspects leave bathrooms. Sometimes they locate already-passed packets in pockets, suitcases or shopping bags. Drug swallowing came to light in the mid-’70s, when the first known swallower showed up in a Toronto emergency room with an intestinal blockage. During the 1990s, the typical packaging—double-bagged but leakprone condoms—gave way to sturdy, machine-pressed pellets. Each pellet is fashioned from the sealed finger of a latex glove that has been packed with 8 to 12 grams of narcotics—most often heroin, sometimes cocaine or amphetamines—and coated with hard wax. The DEA recently got a look at one of the production machines, rigged from a hydraulic jack. There’s a growing consensus that at least some cartels are now using machines professionally engineered for the task, says Trojan. When Trojan cuts through the wax coating of one of the pellets, which is about 1.5 inches long and 0.75 inches in diameter, he finds additional layers of plastic wrap, transparent tape, carbon paper and other materials that suggest an attempt to evade X-ray detection. Though the ruse ultimately doesn’t succeed, it reveals a working knowledge of radiology on the part of the manufacturers . . . or their medical consultants. But Trojan has his own team of medical consultants. In late 2000 he began bringing his drug-packed suspects to Bellevue Hospital, on Manhattan’s East Side. Although several hospitals nearer JFK airport were more convenient for the X-rays and medical exam that Trojan’s suspects required, he got little sympathy from the staff at their

CRIME SEEN

emergency rooms when he explained the delicacy and urgency of the situation. “They pointed me to the waiting room and the end of the line,” he says. There he would sit amid the screaming, the bleeding and the retching—handcuffed to a drug courier passing narcotics into his or her pants. The first swallower who Trojan brought to Bellevue sparked immediate interest and care. “The medical issues are fascinating,” says Stephen Traub, the Bellevue toxicologist who was on call that day. “And the patients are some of the saddest I’ve ever seen.” As a toxi-

Journal of Medicine that provides the most up-to-date guidelines for diagnosis and care. It includes guidelines for recognizing telltale X-ray patterns such as the star-shaped “rosette” that signals where the knot at the end of a latex packet traps tiny air bubbles inside its folds. Similarly, air between the layers of a typical drug package can reveal its sausage-shaped outline. The repetition of these patterns on an abdominal X-ray tells the doctor that he or she is looking at manufactured goods, rather than the remains of yesterday’s dinner. The Bellevue doctors offer a com-

“If anyone is contemplating

how to get a small amount of a concentrated bioterrorist agent into this country, this is it.” cologist, Traub understood the medical risks that other ER doctors tended to gloss over. Though the machined packets are less likely than tied-off condoms to leak and trigger a massive overdose, it’s all too easy to leave a package behind, lodged in the intestines. Should doctors then release the patient into police custody, the pellet could degrade and begin to release its contents. Trojan shares the doctor’s sympathy for many of his suspects. “For the most part, these are not hardened criminals,” he says. “Once I have them under arrest, my priority is to get them the best possible medical care.” And so, over the hospital bed of their first shared charge nearly four years ago, Trojan and Traub forged a friendship and a mutually advantageous working relationship. “They give us the red-carpet treatment, and we bring them a research opportunity like no other,” says Trojan. Last September, Trojan and Traub filled a large auditorium with a presentation on “body packer syndrome” at the annual meeting of the North American Congress of Clinical Toxicologists in Chicago. Traub and Bellevue colleagues Robert Hoffman and Lewis Nelson have also published several scientific papers on the syndrome, including a recent review article in The New England

pelling reason for further research into their new specialty. “If anyone is contemplating how to get a small amount of a concentrated bioterrorist agent into this country, this is it,” says Hoffman. With its capacity of 10 grams, a single pellet could be used to import enough anthrax, ricin or other deadly biochemical powder to wreak havoc. “Maybe I’m just a dumb doctor,” says Hoffman, “but we hear about drug money funding a lot of terrorist operations, and those people are going to think about this.” U.S. Customs Service is aware of the threat, confirms Sam Stabile, a deputy chief inspector for Kennedy Airport. “It’s one of the toughest things to defend against—someone who’s willing to swallow something that could kill him.” While the threat is hypothetical, the drug cartels have shown they recognize the versatility of body packing: They have used swallowers to courier pellets filled with rolls of currency. “Our most powerful screening tools are not X-rays or body scans but the instincts of our inspectors,” says Stabile. “A lot of what we do involves observing behavior, recognizing discrepancies in reasons for travel, and the like. We acquired this expertise before 9/11 in our fight against narcotics, and now we are applying it to terrorism.” ■

H E AD L I N E S

JUNE 2OO4

Discoveries, Advances & Debates in Science and the World

INSIDE MISSILE DEFENSE DÉJÀ VU Why the missile shield is still a long shot.

EMERGING RESEARCH

THE NEW SCIENCE OF CELL HACKING

A GUTSY ELECTRIC CAR Can it cruise 2,000 miles on a single charge? VENUS IN VIEW Another planet worthy of obsessive attention. DESKTOP FUSION Revamped and looking for respect.

Programming bacteria like computers, scientists tap an unexpected labor force. As the cruiser powers into an enemy harbor the captain, suspecting mines, unleashes a swarm of microbes into the water. By the trillions they sniff out TNT, fluorescing brighter hues of red as they near their quarry and then digest the explosive, rendering it harmless. Sounds far-fetched, but if Princeton University bioengineer Ron Weiss has his way, within the next 10 years the first generation of man-made bacterial robots, or microbots, not only will detect

dynamite but will scrub carbon dioxide from smokestack emissions, diagnose disease, and siphon hydrogen from water for fuel. The microbots’ chore list is endless, says Weiss, who is at the forefront of a small but sophisticated new field of genetic engineering called synthetic biology. While traditional genetic engineers shuffle genes from one organism to another, synthetic biologists design and rewire complex networks of genes inside a single organism—

effectively reprogramming the genetic pathways that control how the organism behaves. “You no longer think about fixing a single gene; you think about putting in whole sets of instructions,” Weiss explains. This June scores of researchers, including Weiss, will convene for the first-ever conference on synthetic biology, hosted by MIT. Weiss, for one, is eager to get feedback on his newest creation: bacteria programmed to measure concentrations of a chemical

PROGRAMMING A LIVING CHEMICAL DETECTOR

F R O M L E F T: A LY S O N A L I A N O ; C O U R T E S Y S U B H AY U B A S U ( 2 )

Colony of detector cells

Colony of sender cells

Colony of sender cells

LOW CONCENTRATION

MICROBOT BUILDER RON WEISS

Colony of detector cells

HIGH CONCENTRATION

With funding from the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, bioengineer Ron Weiss is creating living sensors: bacteria engineered to detect and measure the concentration of various target chemicals. The image at left (magnified x100) shows a colony of “sender cells” (orange), engineered to secrete a specific chemical. Like an ink drop in water, the chemical dissipates as it moves away from the source. The second colony (green), made up of “detector cells,” is programmed to absorb the chemical and fluoresce green when it detects weak amounts; thus the detector cells that are closest to the sender cells, where the chemical concentration is high, don’t glow and can't be seen. At right, Weiss has rewired the detector cells to do the reverse: glow when the chemical is strong. Thus the cells closest to the sender cells glow green.

TICKER /// 03.16.04 TB FEARS THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION REPORTS THAT THE NUMBER OF DRUG-RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS CASES IS 10 TIMES HIGHER IN EASTERN POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

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“IT’S FASCINATING TO THINK THAT YOU CAN MAKE LIVING ORGANISMS DO WHATEVER YOU WANT,” SAYS PRINCETON UNIVERSITY BIOENGINEER RON WEISS.

Switched on, a gene might produce a chemical signal that directs an organism to seek out food; switched off, it helps the organism conserve energy. By plugging in proteins and genes, Weiss can activate or deactivate chemical signals on command. Weiss made his first single gene circuit in 1997 as an MIT computer-science graduate student. Since then his circuitry has become increasingly complex. His newest work, the bull’s-eye bacteria, contains a circuit made of five genes. “It’s fascinating to think that you can make living organisms do whatever you want,” Weiss says. Fascinating and dangerous, says Stanford University bioethicist David Magnus. Bacteria could be programmed to produce toxins instead of mopping them up. Magnus argues that the new field needs strict guidelines to ensure that microbots test safe before scientists release them into the wild. Weiss acknowledges the risks but says the more we learn about gene programming, the better able we’ll be to minimize the dangers.—DAN FERBER

HAIL MARY LAUNCH? The Pentagon fields its controversial missile shield.

While dirty bombs and bioweapons steal headlines, the Pentagon is plowing ahead with a 21-year-old plan to silence a more traditional weapon of mass destruction: the intercontinental ballistic missile. Despite widespread criticism, this summer the Missile Defense Agency will deploy the humble beginnings of a nationwide missile defense shield. If all goes according to plan, by September the rudimentary shield will consist of 10 ground-based interceptors (six in Alaska and four in California) and a constellation of early-warning infrared and radar systems. The interceptors are designed to collide in orbit with long-range ballistic missiles, presumably launched by North Korea or China, and annihilate them upon impact. At least that’s the plan on paper. Unlike other U.S. weapons systems, which must pass a series of benchmark tests before deployment, the system remains largely untested. (The testing requirements were quietly waived in 2002 to enable the MDA to meet a president-mandated fall 2004 deadline.) Critics say the system, which will cost upwards of $53 billion over the next five years, is too premature for deployment. “The fundamental problem is that there’s no way to reliably discriminate between a decoy and a real warhead,” says MIT nuclear physicist Theodore Postol. Despite more than two decades of research, “the basic science just isn’t there,” he says. And even if the Pentagon could employ a perfect missile defense system, opponents argue that it would do little to protect the United States from an ever-growing network of terrorists who hardly need ICBMs to threaten homeland security. “I’m no hippie,” Postol says. “I like weapons that work.”—REPORTING BY MARK FARMER

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Infrared satellite

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Dummy warhead Live warhead

Warhead booster Early-warning radar, Shemya Island, Alaska

MINUTES TO LAUNCH, SECONDS TO INTERCEPT

GARRY MARSHALL

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and then form a bull’s-eye around the source (see graphic). “The impact of research like this will be tremendous,” says Eric Eisenstadt, who handles synthetic-biology funding for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. At the genetic level, bacteria use many of the same tricks as computer circuitry. In a typical genetic circuit, one gene produces a protein that turns a corresponding gene on or off, much the way a computer inverter turns a 1 into a 0 and vice versa.

NATIONAL SECURITY

A long-range missile fires from East Asia. Within minutes, a defense satellite equipped with infrared sensors detects the rocket’s bright plume. Early-warning radars in Alaska and California begin tracking the incoming missile, calculating its target destination (1). Ten minutes later, a ground-based interceptor is launched from Alaska or California. With several targets in sight, the interceptor deploys a kill vehicle (2). Closing in at 15,000 miles per hour, it has less than one minute to discern the warhead from the decoys. With little time to correct its course, one wrong calculation means that the warhead cruises back into the atmosphere (3). Fifteen to twenty seconds later it strikes its target.

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA THAN IN THE REST OF THE WORLD /// 03.18.04 DUST BOWL, DECIPHERED EXTREME OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE DRIED OUT THE GREAT

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CATCH ME IF YOU CAN: KILL VEHICLE LACKS 20-20 VISION KILL VEHICLE

Divert thrusters

Infrared telescope shield

Liquid nitrogen tanks

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Attitude control thrusters

The most critical part of the missile defense system is the exoatmospheric kill vehicle, or EKV. Made by Raytheon Missile Systems, the 140-pound EKV is hidden beneath an aerodynamic shroud at the tip of the ground-based interceptor. During the initial stages of flight, tracking data beamed from earlywarning radars guide the interceptor toward its target. Once in space the interceptor deploys the EKV. Traveling at about 5 miles per second, it has roughly one minute to home in on warheads obscured by a flurry of decoys. To do this it uses a delicate infrared telescope that distinguishes objects by measuring reflective brightness, a technique MIT’s Theodore Postol equates to looking for explosives hidden in suitcases by scanning baggage for color and shape. Warhead-shaped decoys covered with reflective foil can easily confuse the EKV. So far the system has flunked three out of eight test flights.

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A warhead appears as a blurry lump of pixels to an infrared telescope100 kilometers away (a). The scope’s onedegree view field—similar to that of a soda straw—severely limits the view of objects dispersed in space (b).

2 MID-COURSE PHASE Kill vehicle

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Interceptor Interceptor silo, Fort Greely, Alaska Early-warning radar, Clear AFB, Alaska

Command Center, Cheyenne Mt., Colorado

Early-warning radar, Beale AFB, California

Interceptor silo, Vandenberg AFB, California

Early-warning radar, U.S. Navy Aegis destroyer

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PLAINS IN THE ’30s—SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WERE ABNORMALLY WARM, WHILE THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WAS UNUSUALLY COLD, NASA SCIENTISTS SAY /// 03.18.04 POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

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THE POPSCI OPINION POLL BASED ON 2,419 RESPONSES POSTED TO POPSCI.COM FROM 3/1 TO 4/1

LAST MONTH WE ASKED:

PERSPECTIVE

YOUR VENUSIAN CRIB SHEET

On June 8, Venus will make a rare flyby of Earth. Study up. 121.5 Number of years since Venus last crossed between Earth and the Sun, making it visible to the naked eye 8 Number of years until the next Venus transit 5 BILLION + Estimated number of people who will be able to see all or part of the 2004 transit. People in the western U.S., Hawaii and New Zealand are out of luck until 2012 23° N, 55° W Best view, just south of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates SUN FILTER Equipment necessary to view transit without eye damage 1761, 1769 Years in which astronomers used the transit of Venus to measure Earth’s distance from the Sun 864 Surface temperature of Venus, in degrees Fahrenheit 266 Highest temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit, that a lifeform on Earth has been known to survive 6 Planned U.S. missions to Mars, 2004–2011 1 Planned U.S. missions to Venus, 2004–2011

WILL CLIMATE CHANGE PROFOUNDLY AFFECT THE WAY WE LIVE OUR LIVES Cell drops 20 YEARS FROM NOW?

[YES]

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INKJET PRINTER

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NEED A HOME IN A HURRY? PRESS PRINT An oversize printer could speed up building construction.

YES SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING NO OUR DEFENSE DOLLARS ARE BETTER SPENT ON PROVEN TECHNOLOGY WHAT DO YOU THINK? POPSCI.COM

DON’T BLAME TV UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS RESEARCHERS REPORT THAT VIDEOGAME PLAY HAS A STRONGER CORRELATION TO CHILDHOOD OBESITY THAN TV VIEWING /// 03.18.04

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FROM CENTER: CORBIS (2)

If Behrokh Khoshnevis has his way, the on-demand world of movies, TV, Internet connections, you name it, will have a home under on-demand roofs. Khoshnevis, a University of Southern California professor, says he’s a year away from essentially printing out a house from computer-generated blueprints wired to an apparatus that works like a giant inkjet printer. In this case, the printout is 3-D: An overhead gantry moves back and forth while an attached robotic nozzle oozes layer after layer of cement shaped by two automated trowels. Khoshnevis calls the technology “contour crafting.” He envisions printable low-income houses, emergency shelters, apartment buildings and even intricately designed homes that take advantage of the trowels’ ability to mold cement or adobe into virtually any shape. Khoshnevis has already built walls 3 feet high, 6 inches wide, and 5 feet long—in an hour. “I think we could build a 1,000-square-foot house in a day,” he says. But while Khoshnevis predicts a “press print” home will be doable by 2005, University of Texas civil engineer Carl Haas says it will be at least a decade before contour crafting goes mainstream: “Building codes have to change. A whole industry has to change.”—MICHAEL ROSENWALD

THIS MONTH’S OPINION POLL: SHOULD THE UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO INVEST IN A NATIONAL MISSILE SHIELD?

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UPDATE

UP, UP AND AWAY

COURTESY SCALED COMPOSITES

A flawless first test flight bodes well for Rutan’s GlobalFlyer. Can aviation mastermind Burt Rutan do no wrong? This March his radical Virgin Atlantic GlobalFlyer, the twin-boomed jet-powered plane that adventurer Steve Fossett hopes to fly solo around the world—nonstop and without refueling—breezed through its maiden test flight. During a 1.5-hour hop out of Mojave, California, lead test pilot Jon Karkow took GlobalFlyer to 12,000 feet to check the airplane’s stability in mild turbulence and from near-stall speeds to 110 knots. The airplane’s predecessor, Rutan’s similarly shaped Voyager,

which flew around the world with two pilots in 1986, suffered a wide range of stability problems. Most worrisome was an aeroelasticity glitch that caused the wings and fuselage to flex dramatically in flight. But Karkow reports that GlobalFlyer had no such issues, even after he tried to induce aerodynamic oscillations by rapping the control stick and deflecting it slightly off center. “I was confident this airplane would be better, but I was still prepared for poor handling characteristics, based on the Voyager flight,”

THE GLOBALFLYER

Karkow said. “I was pleasantly relieved that it flew so well. GlobalFlyer handled much better.” Rutan was so pleased with the debut performance that he immediately outlined an accelerated flight test schedule, squeezing in as many as 50 tests in the next four to six months. “His plan was so ambitious that our chins hit the floor,” Karkow says. “Burt wants to build up to long flights by the fifth flight.”—ERIC ADAMS

CLOSE PASS A 30-METER-WIDE ASTEROID PASSES WITHIN 26,500 MILES OF EARTH, THE CLOSEST EVER OBSERVED BY A TELESCOPE /// 03.22.04 SHUTTLE FLAW FOUND GEARS

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SHRINKAGE DEPT. RESEARCH UPDATES ON THE QUEST TO MAKE REALLY TINY THINGS

AUTOMOTIVE INNOVATION

BATTERIES INCLUDED

Stanford students rev up the electric car with laptop power. When General Motors and Toyota yanked the plug on their electricvehicle programs last year, citing high costs and weak demand, many proud owners of gasguzzlers no doubt nodded smugly: Batteries are for flashlights, not family cars. But now a team of young electric-car enthusiasts is attempting to change that widely held perception by building an experimental battery-powered car capable of highway cruising speeds and cross-country trips—all on a single charge. “We want to dispel the myth that electric vehicles can never travel more than a few hundred miles,” says engineer J.B. Straubel of the Stanford Electric Vehicle Project. The secret to the project is lithium ion, the same technology supplying juice to most laptop

WHAT MAKES THE E-CAR EFFICIENT Built from hollow stainless-steel tubes, the chassis weighs less than 100 pounds and measures 8 feet long, axle to axle. The chassis is covered with an aerodynamic teardrop-shape carbon-fiber shell.

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The 10,000 lithium-ion batteries will weigh about 1,100 pounds and hold 80 kilowatt-hours of energy. To prevent the batteries from overheating, 150 microprocessors will constantly monitor their temperature and voltage output.

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The wheels are outfitted with Michelin’s custom solar-car radials. Inflated to 100 psi, the tires are made of Kevlarreinforced rubber and have up to onefourth the resistance of traditional tires.

NANO-GRASS

Water take heed: Liquids are now at the mercy of a breakthrough material from Bell Labs. Flip an electric switch and the material acts like a sponge. Flip again and it behaves like a rain slicker. Applications could turn up wherever liquids meet solids (read: practically everywhere). Lead researcher Tom Krupenkin envisions near-frictionless torpedoes, self-cleaning windshields and more efficient batteries. Water clings to most materials, either soaking in or beading up, depending on surface area and composition. The new material, etched from silicon, resembles a microscopic bed of grass. Each “blade” is a few nanometers thick—about 100,000 times smaller in diameter than a single human hair. When liquid drops onto the tiny blades, it suspends itself on their tips without sinking between. The blades “reduce the surface area the droplet feels,” says Krupenkin, so the liquid beads up effortlessly. When the researchers charge the silicon with electricity, the energy field pulls the liquid down into the gaps, and the “nanograss” wets instantly. —LAURA ALLEN PHOTO CREDIT TK

3 WHEELS

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ABSORBS LIQUID

IN THE RUDDER OF AT LEAST ONE SHUTTLE WERE INSTALLED INCORRECTLY IN THE LATE 1970s OR EARLY ’80s—A POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS PROBLEM THAT WENT UNNOTICED

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FROM TOP: COURTESY LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES INC/BELL LABS (2); GARRY MARSHALL

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CHASSIS DESIGN

computers. Straubel says booming laptop sales have made lithiumion batteries cheaper and more efficient than lead-acid or nickelmetal-hydride cells, the power sources for GM’s EV1, Toyota’s RAV4 EV and other now defunct commercial models. The Stanford car will stow 10,000 lithium-ion batteries under the hood. A standard laptop typically has eight. Wired together, the lithium-ion cells— each roughly the size of an AA battery—will store enough energy to power an average home for four days, says Straubel. More important, the Stanford team calculates the pack could propel its car at an average 45 mph for 2,000 miles, smashing all previous EV records. The team hopes to have the car ready for road tests by July.—MICHAEL STROH

REPELS LIQUID

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Generating heat energy like the Sun: Can it be this easy? Don’t call it cold fusion. Not yet. For the second time in two years, physicist Rusi Taleyarkhan and colleagues claim to have created a miniature sun in a jar, but this time skeptics are taking a closer look. “I still don’t believe it,” says Lawrence Crum at the University of Washington in Seattle, “but it’s becoming more and more difficult to ignore.” Most physicists think you need an enormous facility to generate the sun-like heat and pressure required to fuse two atoms, but Taleyarkhan’s fusion device fits on the tabletop of his Purdue University lab. His recipe: Start with a jar of deuterium-filled fluid, send pulses of sound waves ricocheting throughout and blast

the fluid with neutrons. The neutrons create tiny bubbles, which the sound waves rapidly expand and contract. The contractions release energy—enough, Taleyarkhan says, to fuse atoms. Fusion should unleash a burst of neutrons, but Taleyarkhan detected only a few the last time around. Now, thanks to a better detector, he has measured an enormous neutron signal. Crum acknowledges the improvement, but remains skeptical: The neutrons used to start the reaction could be confused for the fusion products. Others are trying to reproduce the results, using laser stimulation to create the bubbles. Until then, most experts say they’re not buying it.—JR MINKEL

A deuterium-heavy fluid (1) is flooded with neutrons (2). Sound waves blow apart tiny bubbles (3), then implode them—the energy released (4) smashes together two deuterium atoms (5), and the fused atoms emit a neutron and gamma radiation (6).

FOR DECADES, NASA ANNOUNCES /// 03.27.04 IT FLIES! NASA REPORTS THE X-43A SCRAMJET TEST VEHICLE REACHED MACH 7 DURING ITS FIRST SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT ///

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WARMING UP TO TELEMEDICINE

Bleep! Blip! Ding! Another life saved. Why electronic intensive care isn’t as scary as it seems. “I know these patients better than anyone on the floor right now,” asserts critical-care specialist Dr. Joseph T. Cooke, who’s checking up on 38 ICU patients at New York-Presbyterian hospital—from across the street. Welcome to the electronic ICU, where bedside manner means ringing a doorbell before observing patients via video camera, then checking vital signs on four remotely located monitors. Surreal? Sure. But it’s telemedicine that seems to be, gingerly, living up to the hype. The system’s developers, Visicu, have installed e-ICUs in eight hospitals nationwide, with eight more in the works. Most agree that traditional ICUs are costly and hard to manage: ICU admissions account for only 10 percent of inpatient beds and 30 percent of hospital costs. And up to 20 percent of ICU patients never check out. The e-ICU, where one doctor and nurse can keep 24-hour watch on as many as 50 patients at once, is boosting chronically short-staffed on-site care. A recent study reported a 27 percent drop in ICU mortality and 17 percent shorter stays since the first e-ICU set up shop at Virginia’s Sentara Healthcare a few years ago. That's a cold stethoscope we can handle.—LAURA ALLEN

INSIDE THE E-ICU

DR. JOSEPH T. COOKE MAKES ELECTRONIC ROUNDS AT NEW YORK-PRESBYTERIAN HOSPITAL.

“[The system] can do things that a human being can’t,” says New York-Presbyterian e-ICU director Dr. Hal Wasserman. 1] Stores and displays patient care history—Xrays, lab test results, meds. 2] Prioritizes patients by severity; allows staff to write medical notes. 3] Audibly signals alarming changes in vital signs. 4] Displays live video of patient (not shown). 5-6] Telemetrically monitors vitals like EKG waves and heart rate in real time. 7] Digital video cameras monitor ICU beds.

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HEADLINE FROM THE FUTURE BY KEVIN WARWICK 2069 GRAND OPENING! THE LOS ANGELES SHARPER IMAGE IMPLANT STORE As the technology to seamlessly merge man and machine matures, more and more people turn Cyborg. Computer chips implanted into the brain restore and enhance memory, eyesight and hearing. Electrode arrays attached to nerve tissue detect and treat clinical depression and chronic pain; other electronic implants linked to the Internet enable people to control cellphones and home appliances by thought alone. And digital memory recorders store and play back past experiences. While encryption tech protects neural networks from hackers, mental spam proves intractable. Kevin Warwick is Professor of Cybernetics at the University of Reading, UK. His books March of the Machines and I, Cyborg will be published by University of Illinois Press in August.

03.29.04 CEO IN SPACE SPACE ADVENTURES ANNOUNCES THAT ENTREPRENEUR GREGORY OLSEN WILL BOARD A SOYUZ CAPSULE FOR A $20 MILLION TRIP TO THE ISS IN 2005.

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FROM TOP: JORDAN HOLLENDER (2); JOE MORSE

PREDICTION

HOLLYWOOD,

SCIENCE

ANDTHEEND

OFTHE

WORLD ATHREE-ACT SCREENPLAY

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COULD SUDDEN CLIMATE CHANGE WREAK INDEPENDENCE DAYLEVEL HAVOC? THE DIRECTOR OF THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW (OUT MAY 28) LET US RUN HIS NEW DISASTER FLICK BY THE EXPERTS. UH-OH. BY MATTHEW TEAGUE

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A note to the reader: Certain scenes in the following account have been dramatized, Hollywood-style—entirely made up—but the description of the film, the scientific information and all the quotes are real.

ACT 1: HOLLYWOOD INT. MOVIE THEATER—NIGHT OF MAY 28, 2004 Camera pans a series of faces busy munching popcorn, slurping sodas, etc. Camera then rests on you, the SKEPTICAL MOVIEGOER. Your eyes roll during the previews of the space battles— SKEPTIC: C’mon. You can’t hear explosions in the vacuum of space. . . .

SKEPTIC (eyes darting, feet tapping): This is just Independence Day minus the aliens. Science fiction, weak on the science—right? FLASHBACK, THREE MONTHS EARLIER: EXT. MOVIE STUDIO—DAY Camera zooms in on the SKEPTICAL SCIENCE WRITER, as he emerges from an onlot screening of the film’s rough cut. 58

POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

ROLAND EMMERICH, director and producer of such movies as The Patriot, Independence Day and Godzilla, wheels

WRITER: Let’s get right to the point, Roland. Your movie purports to be built on a scientific premise, but there’s no way that the climate could change like that in a matter of days. What do you have to say for yourself? Emmerich proceeds, with disarming candor, to acknowledge the unscientific speed of the movie’s plotline. EMMERICH: The scientific community will say, “too fast.” And that’s OK. Otherwise there is no movie. WRITER (voiceover): But that’s as far as he’d budge; he refused to crack on the underlying principle: Abrupt climate change could plunge the planet into an all new ice age, rendering much of it

SCENE 1 // Trouble Approaches

For this shot sequence, the visual effects supervisor used a helicopter to take photos above New York Harbor. They pasted these images to the interior of a digital sphere, creating a 3-D backdrop for 360-degree camera pans. After adding stormy skies and a digital Liberty, they went to work on the water. Artists started with a foundation of featureless water, then added layers for chop, whitecaps, foam, sea spray, etc.—about 30 in all.

up in a German supercar the color of a new pistol. Emmerich is handsome, graceful and well-tanned, with a glinting smile and hair that matches his car’s paint job. INT. BUILDING 29 Emmerich shuts the door of a dimly lit editing room and settles onto a sofa. Writer settles in across from him and prepares to pounce, suspecting that Emmerich’s motivations are more political than scientific, his disaster flick a well-timed swipe at the current administration in an election year. EMMERICH (with a moderate German accent): Your flight in was OK?

uninhabitable. And when I pushed him on the politics. . . . EMMERICH: I started writing this script back when I was finishing The Patriot, before Bush was elected. By then it was already too late. WRITER (voiceover): “Too late”? This guy really seemed to believe that rapid climate change is not only a real threat —it’s inevitable. But I couldn’t be sure that even a well-intentioned Hollywood director could be trusted not to mangle the science, particularly when the god of drama must be served. I needed to consult higher scientific powers. I had to visit the Oracles.

P R E V I O U S S P R E A D A N D T H I S PA G E : C O U R T E S Y T W E N T I E T H C E N T U R Y F O X

And then the feature begins. It’s called The Day After Tomorrow, and it’s a spectacular disaster flick, obviously the gleeful product of someone who has thought far too much about the mechanics of global catastrophe. On screen, a climactic upheaval is brewing. Electrical storms lace the sky over New Delhi while hail pummels Tokyo. A lone paleoclimatologist scrambles to warn the world about impending disaster, yet he is too late: In Southern California, tornadoes dismantle the Hollywood sign and most of downtown Los Angeles. A massive storm surge crashes through Manhattan, followed by wind so cold people freeze to the sidewalks. Chaos follows: world-pounding, civilization-scattering chaos, all thanks to a glitch in the weather. Camera whips back to the Skeptical Moviegoer’s face: The smirk is gone. Destruction depicted this vividly can have that effect. But more: The Moviegoer vaguely recalls that the concept of abrupt climate change served up in the film was recently on the front pages—courtesy of the Pentagon, no less—and that story didn’t have a happy ending, either.

WRITER (voiceover): As I emerged from my preview screening into the light of day, I wasn’t quite sure what to think. For certain, flash-frozen pedestrians and tinseltown twisters did not have the ring of plausibility. Climate can’t change in a Hollywood minute. But still. Ice ages happen. I’d even vaguely heard that they don’t take ages to happen. And so I decided to figure out if there was even a hint of good science in this special-effects extravaganza. And the logical first stop was the director of The Day After Tomorrow. Maybe he’d just grin and agree that the movie is a fun riff on a thin premise: show business.

ACT 2: SCIENCE In his quest, Writer seeks three wise men: the ORACLES of WATER, HUMAN LIFE and the FUTURE. Each is a highly respected expert, a leader in his field. EXT. GREENLAND—DAWN Writer goes in search of the ORACLE OF WATER. Richard Alley, a professor of geosciences at Penn State, has testified before the U.S. Senate about abrupt climate change, chaired the National Research Council committee on the subject, and is himself a leading real-life paleoclimatologist. He is an expert on ice cores, long tubes of ice dug from glaciers

Cut to a montage of shots, in which the Oracle reveals how abrupt climate change works, illustrating his points with magazine-style infographics. (See a copy of the Oracle’s documents on page 61.) WRITER (voiceover): The Oracle explained that abrupt climate change centers on something called the Great Ocean Conveyor, a loop of current that moves throughout the world’s waters. It keeps much of the Northern Hemisphere toasty by pulling warm tropical water north and pushing cold water south. He said that when the warm water, which travels on the surface, reaches its northernmost point, near Iceland, it releases its heat into the atmosphere. This heat warms much of the Northern Hemisphere, especially Europe. The

could snap the conveyor belt. The consequences of this shutdown would be sudden and catastrophic: No more heat for Northern Europe or the east coast of North America; they would turn into frigid wastelands. Ocean temperatures would fluctuate dramatically and in turn disrupt weather patterns worldwide (remember El Niño?). Droughts, floods, apocalyptic storms, subarctic temperatures or searing heat become the norm, depending on which unfortunate corner of the globe you happen to call home. WRITER: So there is some science behind what happens in the movie? ALLEY: Well, it wouldn’t be anything like in the movie, with people freezing and shattering and such at minus 150˚C—that’s just an exaggeration.

SCENE 2 // Surfing East 41st St. WRITER: Thank goodness, because— ALLEY: Western Europe might come to resemble, say, Siberia. But people don’t shatter in Siberia. WRITER (voiceover): I slowly came to realize that this Oracle did not dispute the movie’s vision of hell on Earth—he was just quibbling about which level of hell. Not the seventh ring, he seemed to say. Just the second or third.

COURTESY TWENTIETH CENTURY FOX

Only the lowest 20 feet of the first two foreground buildings is real. It took three months to create digital models of the rest of the set. First, a team scanned 13 blocks of New York City using lidar—a laser-based distance scanner. Three other teams photographed each building from inside a building directly across the street. They mapped photos onto models, added water and people (only foregrounders are real), and voilà—chaos!

that reveal changes in Earth’s climate over millennia. If anyone knows whether the climate really undergoes such massive shifts, he does. In the spooky half-light of an Arctic morning, Writer stumbles across the ice, calling to the Oracle. Suddenly, a whirring sound fills the air, becoming a vibration below. Then, with a pop, a spinning figure shoots from the ice, twirling like a mad gopher. As the figure slows we see it is the Oracle, busy drilling ice cores. He speaks. ALLEY: Hi, it’s Richard Alley. WRITER: Dr. Alley, I must know: Is the science behind this movie real, despite exaggerations and impossible timelines?

now cold water sinks to the ocean bottom—cold water is denser than warm— and this movement, this sinking, drives the entire current: It draws warm water north and shoves cold water south. The Oracle then went on to show me how, paradoxically, if Earth warms too much, the weather—at least in much of the Northern Hemisphere—will get cold. If global warming proceeds apace, and enough Arctic ice melts, this melted ice—cold, fresh water—will mix with the warm, salty water coming up in the current. Since freshwater is less dense than salty water, the lukewarm, brackish water won’t have any reason to sink, and the engine that powers the ocean current will shut down. Melting Arctic ice

EXT. AFRICA—NOON Close-up of Writer’s left eye. It twitches. A new tic. He is obviously disturbed by the movie’s underlying plausibility. WRITER (voiceover): Once I learned that the rapid climate change depicted in the movie was a real possibility, I had to find out how long it would take for it to wreak its damage. Sure, the director had admitted to speeding the process along—but by how much? Would this process require thousands of years? Hundreds? Decades? Could it happen in a matter of days? My quest required a visit to the Oracle of Life. Cut to the ORACLE OF LIFE, Peter Ward, who sits atop a small hill of human skulls under the blazing equatorial sun. He is a paleontologist, a professor of earth and space sciences and biology at the University of Washington, and writes books with such titles as The Life and Death of Planet Earth. POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

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WRITER (staggering up, skipping the formalities): How realistic is this movie? WARD: There is no way that the change to such cold would be so fast. WRITER: So we have nothing to worry about in our lifetimes, right?—Right? WARD (rattling a laugh as dry as the bones beneath him): From ice cores we know that we can have rapid climate change in 10 to 20 years, minimum. WRITER (voiceover): Ten years? Well, that was longer than the movie’s week, but it still seemed a little rapid for my taste. Wasn’t climate change supposed

phenomenon defies the tidy statistics that define so many other scientific fields. One report by the National Academy of Sciences compared the mechanics of abrupt climate change to a person with his finger on a light switch; the person applies gradual pressure, increasing until—snap—the switch is thrown. So far the news wasn’t good: Abrupt climate change is real, it’s inevitable, and it happens in a snap. So the morbid question arises: Just how ugly would life get?

ages. The norm is much colder and more volatile. We’ve lived in a climate of global warming and benign weather for about 11,000 to 12,000 years.

EXT. JUNGLE—DUSK In the blink of an eye, Writer finds himself standing in a lush, endless garden. Flowers and moss grow thick underfoot. Writer sees the ORACLE OF THE

WRITER: And so what would happen if the climate changed by such a massive degree in such a short period of time?

SCENE 3 // Breezy Los Angeles

Tornadoes are exceptionally complicated objects—this scene alone took 14 months to create. Like water, a tornado requires multiple visual layers, except its layers swirl in and out in 3-D. Specialty effects companies hire physical science Ph.D.s to create computer simulations that model a tornado’s particulate physics. After the physics is right, the studio usually tweaks the final product by hand to make it look even more real.

to happen on the scale of centuries? WARD: The reality is scarier than the movie. WRITER: I know you can’t put odds on this kind of thing, but what are the chances that this will happen—

FUTURE nearby, floating in a lotus position. He juggles three crystal balls. WRITER: You know why I’m here, yes? PETER SCHWARTZ, a professional futurist and coauthor of a Pentagon report that examined the national security implications of rapid climate change, nods.

WARD: 100 percent. SCHWARTZ: It’s a fun movie.

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WRITER (voiceover): He expounded in the manner of the previous two Oracles, praising the movie while being clear that many of the details were exaggerated. He mocked the idea that a glacier could sweep over New York in hours—it could take, gosh, years. SCHWARTZ: We are living in a period that’s called interglacial—between ice

SCHWARTZ: An ice age usually lasts a quarter of a million years or more. The interglacial periods are measured in thousands.

SCHWARTZ: The collapse of the economy. Warlordism. Famine. That would be prototypical of what we would see. WRITER (voiceover): I knew that in the Oracle of the Future’s report to the Pentagon he concluded that abrupt climate change could lead to, in the cold language of his research, “a significant drop in the human-carrying capacity of Earth’s environment.” The report billed the weather as a serious U.S. national security concern. Distraught, I decided to summon all three Oracles together for an apocalyptic sit-down.

ACT 3: THE END OF THE WORLD

EXT. MISTY MOUNTAINTOP—DAY AND NIGHT COLLIDE Camera cranes up to show Writer standing before the three Oracles. WRITER: So it’s real, it’s fast, it’s bad. Great. How do we stop it? ALLEY: We can cross our fingers and hope! WRITER (voiceover): Somehow, I didn’t think that was going to cut it. But then the Oracles began to expound on possible theories that might—just might— give us hope. We know that global warming could melt too much Arctic ice, shut down the North Atlantic current and create chaos like the modern world has never seen. Yet, as we know from the study of ice

COURTESY TWENTIETH CENTURY FOX

WRITER (voiceover): Was he serious— 100 percent? Usually scientists sound like defense lawyers, hedging behind words like possibly and perhaps, but here I was being told that the climate will definitely change—drastically— and we could do nothing to stop it. When I asked Ward to predict when the change might happen, his words came more carefully: No one can predict the timing exactly, he said. The

WRITER: So how long does an interglacial period last?

HOW CLIMACTIC CHAOS COULD HAPPEN

Abrupt climate change is not global warming, though global warming might trigger it. Instead of global warming’s gradual temperature increase, rapid climate change would create wild temperature fluctuations around the world. The cause: A sudden shutdown of the Global Ocean Conveyor, so named because it moves heat from the tropics up to northern latitudes. Without that heat, much of the Northern Hemisphere would become a frozen tundra, while droughts and floods would plague the rest of the world. Total elapsed time? Ten, twenty years.

GLOBAL HEAT ENGINE

Warm water traveling north on the surface

Cold water traveling south on the ocean bottom

BREAKING THE CYCLE

STEPHEN ROUNTREE

If global warming proceeds apace and too much Arctic ice melts, the freshwater created by the melting will mix with warm water in the current, forming cooler, less salty (therefore less dense) water on the surface. This water won’t cool and sink the way denser water does. Since this sinking drives the entire Ocean Conveyor, the disruption will cause the world’s currents to shut down, with disastrous effects.

cores, ice ages sometimes just happen. They have done so at fairly regular intervals in the past, and we’re overdue for another one. And so the heretical idea: Perhaps slow global warming could be a good thing. Warm the planet gradually, just enough to stave off that impending ice age. Yet don’t pass the critical tipping point, don’t blast greenhouse gases into the atmosphere so fast that the warming melts enough Arctic ice to trigger abrupt climate change. This is of course overly simplified—the atmosphere is far too complicated to be controlled directly, but the idea remains: Slightly rising temperatures might not be a bad thing. WARD: We are stopping, pushing back the next ice age. The question is how long we can keep it up.

Under normal conditions, the Ocean Conveyor Prevailing wind works like this: The warm Gulf Stream loses its heat to the atmosWarm Gulf Stream phere in the north Atlantic. Since the water that’s left over is both cold Salty, sinking water and salty, it is also dense, and so it sinks to the ocean bottom. This sinking drives ocean currents worldwide.

Melting Arctic ice Floating freshwater

WRITER (slightly confused): Well, if we continue to release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at the current rate, will we be staving off an ice age, or accelerating rapid climate change? SCHWARTZ: Look, we want to urgently slow down abrupt climate change. We need to develop—as rapidly as possible—options for clean fuels, in particular, hydrogen and nuclear. ALLEY (nodding): We may need a worldwide slowdown. Reduce greenhouse gas output. Don’t burn fossil fuels as fast. Don’t force the climate to change. Can I put a number on what sort of slowdown, how much less output? No. No one can. WRITER (voiceover): So even if we are

Ocean floor

delaying one ice age, we may be provoking another. A tough spot, to be sure, but there must be some way out. . . . INT. BUILDING 29—DAY WRITER (twitching): Roland, what can we do about this? EMMERICH: There is nothing. We can do nothing. WRITER (voiceover): With that, the director rose from the sofa and headed toward a small editing bay. He had a movie to finish and didn’t have the luxury of time to ponder just how scary that film would end up being—especially to a skeptic. Matthew Teague has written for Esquire and GQ. This is his first feature for POPSCI. POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

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By Eric Adams

Illustrations by JOHN MACNEILL

IS THIS WHAT WAR WILL COME TO?

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Even as the Pentagon struggles with the low-tech reality of war in Iraq, it looks to increasingly bizarresounding technology for next-gen fighting systems. On the following pages, five chapters from the Pentagon’s sci-fi future.

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TERMINAL VELOCITY This orbiting platform would rely on kinetic energy alone. Tungsten rods dropped on buildings or underground bunkers would strike at hypersonic velocities, vaporizing MARCH 2002 00 targets instantly.

If

U.S. MILITARY WEAPONS PLANNERS HAVE LEARNED ANYTHING

from the varied conflicts of the past quarter century, it is that the challenges are not getting any more predictable. With the nature and capabilities of U.S. opponents changing on practically an engagement-by-engagement basis, deciding which new weapon technologies will best serve soldiers in the battle theaters of the future remains a high-stakes guessing game. The enemy is no longer necessarily a nation; it can be a terrorist cell. The enemy may not possess high-tech weaponry yet still pose a threat—by exploding truck bombs on suicide missions or by firing hand-launched missiles against F/A-22 fighter jets. Nor, despite the absolute technological supremacy of the U.S. military today, can strategists afford to ignore the possibility that a nation that has developed advanced weaponry might come to pose a threat in a nightmare future. The Joint Chiefs of Staff, which mulls responses to future conflict scenarios, is preparing for everything from ground invasions of North Korea to air strikes against terrorist camps. “The process is complicated by the fact that you are less certain than ever who you will be fighting and the circumstances under which you will be fighting them,” says John Pike, a senior military analyst at GlobalSecurity.org, a think tank that specializes in evaluations of military technology and strategy. “When you don’t know what problem you’re trying to solve, it’s hard to come to a solution.” Efficiency is also a factor to a military that finds itself stretched from old bases in Europe to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to calls for intervention in Africa, Haiti and other hotspots. The scores of potential combat scenarios sketched out by the Joint Chiefs, as well as individual branches of the U.S. military, have convinced the Department of Defense that a fast-track modernization program is critical to national security. Many current weapons systems are fast becoming out-of-date, from aging attack helicopter fleets to the early-’60s-designed rifles troops carry on the ground. Key trends will be automation—unmanned land, air and underwater vehicles; communication networks that connect all the players in a battle theater, so that information flows freely between pilots, foot soldiers and commanders; and finding new ways to solve old problems—such as firing ballistics electrically rather than with explosives. But perhaps more in need of overhaul than the weapons systems themselves is the process that produces them. New weapons typically start out as ideas developed in one of the R&D labs belonging to the U.S. military or to private defense contractors such as Raytheon, Lockheed Martin or hundreds of smaller companies around the country. As it progresses, though, a new technology may get bogged down by Byzantine red tape and excessive everything-but-the-kitchen-sink tinkering. Years may elapse—5, 10, 15 or more—while proposals and demonstrations are requested, Congressional approvals secured, contractors chosen, and the technology tested and fielded—and by then the weapon that emerges may be technologically obsolete, or designed for threats that no longer exist. The Defense Department has a history of continuing to fund needless programs because of political pressures and sheer momentum. A prime example: the Army’s Comanche attack helicopter, which was canceled in February after a 21-year, $6.9 billion development program. One of its key missions, battlefield reconnaissance, is quickly being usurped by far less expensive unmanned aerial vehicles. Weapons procurement is also plagued by redundancy: More than one branch of the armed services may develop different systems that accomplish the same goal. This could range from small-caliber bullets being developed for each branch up to entire weapons platforms. Then there’s the chicken-and-egg problem. New weapons usually address specific needs, but the reverse can occur. Military leaders can simply be dazzled by new technologies, and develop weapons to exploit them. “These are often solutions in search of problems,” cautions analyst Loren Thompson of the Arlington, Virginia-based Lexington Institute, a Department of Defense watchdog organization. Meanwhile, U.S. military supremacy has made certain weapons systems seem like overkill—the submarine fleet, for example. In the case of the supercavitating torpedo described in this article, skeptics ask where the need is. “If we ever face a hostile navy again

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I’d like to take a look at it,” says Thompson. “Obviously it’s an improvement over what we have, but what’s the enemy? It’s not enough to have a weapon that can use new technology creatively. It needs to answer a valid military need or threat.” It’s also wise to recognize that the technological supremacy that drove U.S. forces into the heart of Baghdad in record time won’t necessarily forestall the low-tech agony of the fight that has followed. To streamline weapons development, in the mid-1990s the Department of Defense implemented its advanced concept technology demonstration program, a sort of trybefore-you-buy setup that helps bypass usual R&D hurdles. One result: In 1997 the Air Force, after only two-and-a-half years of development, put the Predator unmanned aerial vehicle into service. Then, in 2002, with only minimal testing, they equipped several of the drones with Hellfire missiles and used one to attack an al Qaeda vehicle in Yemen. “Someone came up with the idea and just did it,” says Patrick Garrett, an associate analyst at GlobalSecurity.org. “It harkens back to the good old days of WWII.” Another example of DoD-backed corner-cutting: the littoral combat ship, a versatile vessel with interchangeable modules that can be a minesweeper one day and a special forces troop lander the next. “It normally takes a decade or so for a new ship class to be decided,” says Garrett, “but the Navy put out the bid in 2002, had five or six shipbuilders come up with designs, and they’re hoping to start construction in 2005. That’s a major feat.” Officials hope new technologies will shorten combat, minimize casualties, and enable attacks to be carried out with greater precision. Many weapons in the pipeline, such as the space-launched darts and electromagnetic railgun, will use no explosives at all, relying instead on kinetic energy to destroy targets. Some, like Metal Storm, will use electricity rather than mechanical firing mechanisms. Laser weapons will disable enemy gear with heat rather than force, providing pinpoint accuracy and speed-of-light delivery.

A cradle-like device called a sabot supports projectile in gun barrel, then detaches after firing.

#1

ELECTROMAGNETIC RAILGUN Projectiles fired from an electromagnetic railgun will travel up to 290 miles in less than six minutes, exiting the atmosphere before hurling into their target at a velocity of 5,000 feet per second. The force of the impact will obliterate targets without an explosive aid.

#1

A KINETIC MISSILE THAT FLIES AT MACH 7

All-electric DD(X), the Navy’s nextgen surface combat ship, will be able to divert power from the propellers to the railgun.

Projectile’s launch velocity is 8,200 feet per second.

Since the projectiles have no explosives, storage aboard ship is much safer.

3

Picture this: A massive destroyer receives the location coordinates of an enemy headquarters more than 200 miles away. Instead of launching a million-dollar Tomahawk Rails cruise missile, it points a gun barrel in the direction of the target, diverts electric power from the ship’s engine to the gun turret, and Magnetic launches a 3-foot-long, 40-pound field projectile up a set of superconducting rails. The projectile leaves the barrel at hypersonic velocity— Mach 7-plus—exits the Earth’s atmosphere, re-enters under satellite guidance, and lands on the building less than six minutes later; its incredible velocity vaporizes the target with kinetic energy alone. The U.S. Navy is developing an electromagnetic railgun that will turn destroyers into super-long-range machine guns—able to fire up to a dozen relatively inexpensive projectiles every minute. The Navy is collaborating with the British Ministry of Defence, which has a similar effort under way. In 2003, its facility in Kirkcudbright, Scotland, hosted a 1/8-scale test of an electromagnetic railgun that produced stable flight in a projectile fired out of the barrel at Mach 6. But Capt. Roger McGinnis, program manager for directed energy weapons at Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, D.C., estimates the U.S. ver-

Projectile Armature Electric current

1 2

A railgun uses electric current to launch a projectile. The current—up to 15 million amps—travels up one rail and down the second (1). This current induces a magnetic field across an armature (2) that bridges the rails. This armature also carries a current; the interaction between this current and the magnetic field accelerates the armature, and the projectile aboard it, to Mach 7 (3). Adjusting the range of the weapon is as easy as reducing the electric current supplied to the rails—the lower the current, the slower the projectile leaves the barrel and the shorter the distance it travels.

sion won’t be “deliverable” until 2015 at the earliest. The technology behind the electromagnetic railgun has been around for more than 20 years, but early efforts wilted because of the huge power requirements: No ship could generate or store enough electricity to fire the gun. The concept was revived a few years ago when the Navy announced plans for its next-generation battleship, the all-electric DD(X). “In the past, destroyers had 90 percent of their power tied to propulsion,”1explains McGinnis. “But with DD(X), you can divert the power to whatever you need. We can stop the ship and fire the railgun as many times as we need, then divert the power back to the screws.” The barrel of the electromagnetic railgun will contain two parallel conducting rails about 20 feet long, bridged by a slidPOPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

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#2

SUPERCAVITATING TORPEDO

Cavitator ejects gas through the torpedo’s nose.

Detection and homing electronics keep torpedo on target.

Storage tanks for bubble-generating gas.

Cavity-piercing control fins steer the missile.

Rocket motor accelerates weapon to 230 mph.

Several challenges remain for the supercavitating torpedo, including how it will be steered underwater. Water-tunnel tests have already proven that speed can be achieved: In 1997, the Navy tested a supercavitating projectile that reached 5,082 feet per second, becoming the first underwater projectile to exceed Mach 1.

ing armature. In the current design, electric current travels up one rail, crosses the armature, and heads down the second rail. The loop induces a magnetic field that pushes the armature, and the projectile aboard it, up the rails. The challenges that remain include ensuring that the gun can target enemy sites with precision, and creating equipment that can withstand the gargantuan pressures the gun will create. “Right now, guns are only as accurate as the targeting of the bore, and now we’re talking about 200-plus-mile ranges, so there has to be aerodynamic correction,” says Fred Beach, the assistant program manager for the electromagnetic railgun at Naval Sea Systems Command. The projectile, he says, will receive course correction information from satellites and will steer itself with movable control surfaces. And because the projectile will be subjected to up to 45,000 Gs during firing, the onboard electronics must be strengthened to withstand the acceleration. Forces inside the gun itself—particularly getting the armature to move easily within the system—are also 66

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challenging the designers. “Getting two pieces of metal to slide past each other is pretty hard—we’re getting a lot of damage to the rails,” Beach says. The electromagnetic railgun’s projectiles will cover 290 miles in six minutes—initially traveling 8,200 feet per second and hitting their target at 5,000 feet per second. Current Navy guns, which shoot powder-ignited explosive shells, have a maximum range of 12 miles and, because they are unguided, are difficult to aim. Though guided missiles, the current longrange alternative for destroyers, can achieve ranges comparable to that of the electromagnetic railgun, their cost and storage problems are what’s driving the efforts to find an alternative. Ships can only carry up to 70 guided missiles and must return to port to restock because the missiles cannot be loaded at sea, whereas railgun projectiles can easily be loaded at sea, and by the hundreds. Also appealing is that the electromagnetic railgun’s missiles do not contain volatile explosives; the weapon does its work with kinetic energy.

The hard part about building a rocket-propelled torpedo isn’t so much the propulsion as clearing a path through the ocean. Water creates speed-sapping drag; the best way to overcome that drag is to create a bubble that envelops the torpedo— a supercavity. A gas ejected uniformly and with enough force through a cavitator in the nose of the torpedo will provide such a bubble, permitting speeds of more than 200 mph and a range of up to 5 miles (traditional torpedoes have slightly longer ranges, but lumber at only 30 to 40 mph). Though submerged, the torpedo remains essentially dry, with a frictionless surface. “That sounds easy, but doing it is extremely difficult, especially if you’re trying to steer,” says Kam Ng, program manager for the torpedo at the Office of Naval Research, which has been developing the weapon since 1997. “If your torpedo moves in a straight line, you just aim and shoot,” says Ng. “That capability already exists with Shkval. But the U.S. vehicle will be more capable—it will turn, identify objects, and home in on the target.” (Improvements to the torpedo to make it steerable likely froze when the Soviet Union collapsed, says GlobalSecurity.org’s Pike.) Among the greatest challenges for U.S. torpedo researchers is developing detection and homing technology that will enable the torpedo to distinguish an enemy sub from, say, a rock formation, says Ng. Also tricky is finding a way to control the gas bubble to permit those course changes. “When you turn, the bubble distorts because it is no longer symmetrical,” he says. “So you have to compensate for that by putting more bubble to one side.” This is done, Ng explains, by ejecting more gas toward the outside of the turn. Naval officials say the high-speed torpedo will enable submarines to attack enemy subs and surface ships without giving them time to respond. The U.S. military has tested a prototype, but combat-ready versions are not expected for at least 15 years.

#3 #2

A ROCKET TORPEDO THAT SWIMS IN AN AIR BUBBLE

Submarines peaked in power and relevance during the Cold War; there has since been a shift in focus to aircraftbased combat, and subs have become budget-cut victims. But subs are still prized for their ability to sneak about global waters undetected and to defend surface ships from attack. Many U.S. subs are being converted from missile launchers into delivery vehicles for special operations troops. But the supercavitating torpedo—a rocket-propelled weapon that speeds through the water enveloped in a nearly frictionless air bubble—may render obsolete the old submarine strategy of sly maneuvering and silent running to evade the enemy. The superfast torpedo could be outfitted with conventional explosive warheads, nuclear tips or nothing at all— a 5,000-pound, 230-mph missile could do enough damage on its own. The Russians invented the concept during the Cold War, and their version of this underwater killer—dubbed the Shkval (“Squall”)—has recently been made available on the international weapons market; the United States, of course, wants a new, improved version of the original.

A LASER CANNON THAT BLASTS FROM THE AIR

Directed-energy weapon specialists at the Air Force Research Laboratory are close to overcoming the two main hurdles that have confined laser weapons to science fiction for the last half-century. Tests by lead contractor Boeing have demonstrated that the laser has enough power to function as a weapon, and that the chemical exhaust, which could pose a considerable threat to the weapon’s operators and individuals on the ground, can be safely contained in a sealed system. If all goes according to the U.S. Special Operations Command’s plan, within a decade or so the Advanced Tactical Laser may introduce a new class of weaponry to the battlefield. The weapon’s first incarnation, expected by 2010 at the earliest, will be a megawatt-class chemical oxygen-iodine laser (COIL) fired from a rotating turret beneath the nose of a C-130 gunship. The beam could be up to 4 inches in diameter and have a 20-mile range—enabling it to burn through vehicles and machinery with a precision and millisecond timing that missiles and cannons can’t achieve. (Cannons, in particular—now centuries old in concept—are tricky to aim. These “indirect fire” weapons must be pointed far from the target to factor in wind speed, humidity, firing force—even the rotation of the Earth.) Next on the agenda: developing targeting, tracking and firing Watch Metal Storm in action at popsci.com/exclusive

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#3

ADVANCED TACTICAL LASER

Rotating turret provides 360-degree targeting.

Sealed exhaust ensures safety of crew members and ground personnel.

The Advanced Tactical Laser, fired from a Special Forces A/C-130 Gunship, will have a range of up to 20 miles, as well as pinpoint accuracy and speed-of-light responsiveness. The first generation will employ chemical lasers, which will later be replaced by diodepumped solid-state lasers powered by electricity.

hardware. Among the questions researchers must answer: how long must the beam linger on a target to have the desired effect. “There are some interesting things with the directed energy technologies that we just don’t know about,” says Lt. Col. Joseph Panetta Jr., program manager for the Advanced Tactical Laser at the U.S. Special Operations Command headquarters at MacDill Air Force Base in Florida. “We need to determine exactly how it will perform on the battlefield.” Laser weapons are a relative bargain compared with existing long-range weapons: They’re expected to cost $8,000 per shot versus up to hundreds of thousands for missiles. Lasers are also tunable, which adds versatility: When less-than-lethal force is required, such as in urban areas or when hostages are present, the beam’s duration can be reduced so that it disables technology but only injures people. “We want a system that can generate a variety of effects on the battlefield, from damaging something to totally destroying it, to just kind of harassing with it,” Panetta says. “This seems to offer us that.” Next-gen tactical lasers will likely be electrically-powered and diode-pumped, since chemical lasers require storage and transport of heavy ingredients. The greatest challenge with electric lasers, says Lt. Col. JoAnn Erno, head of the power 68

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Chemicals processed in platform generate laser beam.

division at the Air Force Research Laboratory at WrightPatterson Air Force Base in Ohio, is managing the heat that’s generated—lasers are only 10 percent efficient, so 90 percent of the power is lost in heat. “Controlling the heat will require active cooling,” she says, “such as spraying the laser’s diodes to keep them from overheating.” Solid-state lasers will be smaller than chemical ones, permitting their use on fighter jets and ground vehicles. The Joint Strike Fighter, due to enter service in 2009, is a well-suited potential platform, says Erno, because its engine includes a metal shaft that spins fast enough to easily power a laser. Lasers are an example of a weapon that should be developed

for multiple uses, says Garrett. “If you can get several [military] branches to use it instead of four different devices that do the same thing, you can make it cheaper by cutting down logistics problems and easing training.”

#4

SPACE-LAUNCHED DARTS THAT STRIKE LIKE METEORS

#5

Firing a gun has always been an intensely mechanical process: Pull the trigger and a hammer strikes the back of a bullet—usually inserted into the chamber by a spring mechanism—causing explosive powder in the bullet to shoot out a slug. The slug exits the front of the barrel and another spring ejects the empty shell from the side of the gun. For centuries, gun manufacturers have only been able to finesse the firing process, and guns remain prone to jamming, misfiring due to deterioration of moving parts, and occasional explosive failure that can kill or severely injure the soldier firing the weapon. The Australian company Metal Storm has an answer: Bring digital technology to what has been one of the battlefield’s last holdouts from the electronics revolution. Metal Storm’s solution—now being examined by the Department of Defense—is to remove virtually every moving part from modern guns and replace them with electronic ballistic technology and computerized controls. Bullets stacked in the barrel fire at rates of up to 60,000 rounds per minute, even a million in certain multi-barrel configurations. Coded electric signals ignite propellant embedded within each specially designed bullet. The pressure created by the small explosion pushes out the bullet while at the same time enlarging the bullet behind it, sealing the barrel and preventing the other

This technology is very far out—in miles and years. A pair of satellites orbiting several hundred miles above the Earth would serve as a weapons system. One functions as the targeting and communications platform while the other carries numerous tungsten rods—up to 20 feet in length and a foot in diameter—that it can drop on targets with less than 15 minutes’ notice. When instructed from the ground, the targeting satellite commands its partner to drop one of its darts. The guided rods enter the atmosphere, protected by a thermal coating, traveling at 36,000 feet per second—comparable to the speed of a meteor. The result: complete devastation of the target, even if it’s buried deep underground. (The two-platform configuration permits the weapon to be “reloaded” by just launching a new set of rods, rather than replacing the entire system.) The concept of kinetic-energy weapons has been around ever since the RAND Corporation proposed placing rods on the tips of ICBMs in the 1950s; the satellite twist was popularized by sci-fi writer Jerry Pournelle. Though the Pentagon won’t say how far along the research is, or even confirm that any efforts are underway, the concept persists. The “U.S. Air Force Transformation Flight Plan,” published by the Air Force in November 2003, references “hypervelocity rod bundles” in its outline of future space-based weapons, and in 2002, another report from RAND, “Space Weapons, Earth Wars,” dedicated entire sections to the technology’s usefulness. If so-called “Rods from God”—an informal nickname of untraceable origin—ever do materialize, it won’t be for at least 15 years. Launching heavy tungsten rods into space will require substantially cheaper rocket technology than we have today. But there are numerous other obstacles to making such a system work. Pike, of GlobalSecurity.org, argues that the rods’ speed would be so high that they would vaporize on impact, before the rods could penetrate the surface. Furthermore, the “absentee ratio”— the fact that orbiting satellites circle the Earth every 100 minutes and so at any given time might be far from the desired target—would be prohibitive. A better solution, Pike argues, is to pursue the original concept: Place the rods atop intercontinental ballistic missiles, which would slow down enough during the downward part of their trajectory to avoid vaporizing on #4 impact. ICBMs would also be less expensive and, since they’re stationed on Earth, would take less time to reach their targets. “The spacebasing people seem to understand the downside of space weapons,” Pike says—among them, high costs and the difficulty of maintaining weapon platforms in orbit. “But I’ll still bet you there’s a lot of classified work on this going on right now.”

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A GUN THAT FIRES A MILLION ROUNDS A MINUTE

Communications and targeting platform receives instructions from the ground and identifies the target.

Partnered rod “cartridge” ejects tungsten projectile.

RODS FROM GOD

Space-based weapons have exceptionally disparate advantages and disadvantages: They are extremely powerful and difficult to defend against, but they’re also expensive to launch and maintain and they’re in constant motion above the Earth.

Clustering barrels together can raise firing rates of individual weapons to a million rounds per minute.

Electric charge ignites propellant embedded within slugs.

#5

METAL STORM

Pressure from each shot expands the next round, sealing the barrel and preventing accidental firing.

Metal Storm weapons replace mechanical firing systems in conventional guns with coded electrical ignitions. These can be programmed to fire at any rate, from thousands of rounds per second to just one at a time. According to the manufacturer, the technique can be used with both lethal and nonlethal rounds (such as rubber bullets). The guns can also be electronically secured so only authorized users can fire them.

charges from igniting until commanded to do so. Though hand-carried versions won’t fire at a million rounds per minute—no soldier would want to reload every three milliseconds—vehicle-mounted systems could. Art Schatz, the senior vice president of operations in Washington, D.C., says that if larger barrels were clustered on the back of a Humvee or in a helicopter, the result would be a powerful “area-denial” weapon. The system can be adjusted to meet various needs. “We’re not talking about always firing at a million rounds per minute,” Schatz says. “But if you’ve got one of these mounted in an aircraft and have a rocket-propelled grenade coming at you, you can in an instant have 200 little bullets intercepting it.” Moreover, Metal Storm could fire nonlethal rounds such as rubber bullets—for, say, crowd dispersal. The system’s key drawback: 72

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The guns require electrical power, making them yet another gadget soldiers will need to keep supplied with batteries. The Metal Storm system has been tested on rounds ranging from 9mm to 60mm, and in a variety of weapons, including the O’Dwyer VLe (a “smart gun” with electronic safety controls, named after company founder Mike O’Dwyer), and clustered pods of barrels that achieve the million-round-per-minute numbers. The U.S. military is helping fund Metal Storm. If the Pentagon decides to adopt the weapon, it will probably enter use in 5 to 10 years—that’s how long it will take for the military to design new weapons around the system, test them, and distribute them to soldiers. ■ Eric Adams is POPSCI‘s aviation and automotive editor.

PHOTO CREDIT TK



Tech ’54, Where Are You? BY LARRY SMITH

How much has technology really changed our daily lives? We asked a highly wired writer to spend 10 days in the big city living with the technology of 50 years ago. No Web, no cell, no laptop, no ATM card. Illustrations by Tavis Coburn

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Mornings are the worst.

The coffee is too weak. The windup alarm clock is too loud. The phone rings, and it might or might not be my mom. There are no new e-mails. There is no hope for a Krispy Kreme. And man, oh man, I miss my Ambien. Why have I subjected myself to life without a PDA? Why did I agree to a plan that forced me to spend New Year’s Day watching the Gators in black and white, while the rest of the civilized world rings in the new year with Hoppin’ John and the Orange Bowl in glorious Technicolor (or better yet, on TiVo with full control over instant replay and super slo-mo)? Why, oh why, am I spending the first 10 days of 2004 attempting to work, play and party like it’s 1954? I was born in 1968. One of my mom’s favorite photos is of her holding baby me in front of TV images of Buzz Aldrin’s first Moon walk. I’m old enough to remember life before PCs and ATMs, but young enough to embrace NetFlix and Wi-Fi’ing at Starbucks. I have 10,000 songs on my hard drive, but I derive more joy poring over my future father-in-law’s 5,000-plus LP collection. After serving my friends a perfect gin gimlet in my grandparents’ stemware, I’ve been known to duck into the other room to check e-mail and sneak a glance at ESPN.com. I’m what marketers call an early adopter, yet there are moments when all I want is to sit on a porch and listen to a ball game on the radio as my pop used to do in the days before big-screen TVs. Perhaps this mission I’ve accepted will help me better grapple with my ambivalence. Is simpler really better? Just how far have we come since Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev, after listening to Vice President Richard Nixon articulate America’s technological superiority, responded,“Many of the things you have shown us are interesting but not needed in life”? PRESHOW:

A GEEK’S LAST FLING

In the weeks before my low-tech experiment began, I was a high-tech camel, trying to store up enough of the modern world to last me through the technology desert I was preparing 76

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to traverse. I bought a new digital camera, clicked on my favorite blogs six times a day and read four months’ worth of Brookstone catalogs. I drank lots of lattes, caught up on weeks of back e-mail and saw part three of The Lord of the Rings in a slammin’ multiplex with surround sound and stadium seating. The rules didn’t demand that I pretend the year was actually 1954. I didn’t have to call people “cat” or wear a gray flannel suit. I simply couldn’t employ technology that wasn’t available and reasonably affordable half a century ago. Obviously, my cellphone, Sonicare toothbrush, DVD player and two computers were out. I embarked on a search for a new winter jacket, as mine was made of synthetic microfibers not on the market in 1954.1 The Post-it notes2 that litter my desk had to go. The Cuisinart (née 1973), which lives a lonely life under my sink, could stay right there. While I could still use charge cards (the Diners Club card, introduced in 1950, ushered in a new age of credit—by 1952 it was accepted by thousands of merchants), my ATM card would have to be retired. Chris Duval, a vintage clothes collector in Fairhaven, Massachusetts, sold me a peacoat that I learned was made from dense Melton wool3 rather than the inferior weaves that prevail today. At a Garden City, Long Island, computer repair shop, collector Tony Casillo offered me a 1950s-era Royal manual typewriter with the original ribbon (“this baby has very few miles on it”) and recounted an endearingly sad tale: His 12-year-old daughter was the only student in her class who knew what a typewriter was when the teacher asked. I rented a 1952 black-and-white Zenith TV4 with rabbit ears. I knew that during my time travel I would have to be extra sweet to my fiancée, Piper, as this new lifestyle would be inflicted, to some extent, on her as well5 (and she made it clear that when I walked in the front door she wouldn’t be greeting me with a drink in hand, looking like Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven). Delivery of Thai food to our New York City apartment was out of the question. Fortunately, we retained the arguably romantic ability to make an instant cake (General Mills’ Betty Crocker brand introduced the cake mix in 1947) and to store the leftovers in Tupperware (patented in 1947 by Earl Silas Tupper). And it was determined that since my partner, not I, was the one popping that post’54 miracle of science, the Pill,6 it was allowable (plus, my editor didn’t want to be responsible for another baby boom). As the final minutes ticked away until the start of my experiment, I had Piper hide my cellphone, kissed my Sharper Image CD

1 Fabrics like Thinsulate, introduced in 1978, are made from microfibers— superthin synthetic fibers that are melted and then cooled by air onto a screen (wool and cotton, in contrast, are woven). Advantages: Microfiber materials are water-resilient and are thinner and more flexible than even the finest silk. 2 The Post-it note was invented in 1974, the same year as liposuction. 3 Melton is a thicker wool than the kind typically produced today, made of a twill or satin weave with a lovely, smooth surface. During the production process, wool is typically soaked in hot soapy water with a touch of acid. Melton wool is soaked up to 10 times longer than other wools, in a solution that contains twice as much soap; that’s what makes it especially thick. The finished fabric is then sheared to remove pilling, giving Melton wool its satiny sheen. I’ve never received so many compliments on a coat, and it only cost me $35. 4 In 1950, about 10 percent of American households had a television; in 2000, that number was 98 percent. Approximately 3 million homes now subscribe to TiVo, ReplayTV or a similar DVR service. 5 According to the U.S. Census, in 2000, 11 million people were unmarried and living with a partner (both same-sex and heterosexual couples are included in this figure). In the ’50s, the Census didn’t track cohabitation data; we do know that in 1950, 32 percent of men and 34 percent of women were unmarried, compared with 42 and 45 percent today. 6 True, the Pill was invented in 1951, but it wasn’t marketed until 1960; in the ’50s, condoms ruled. Condoms began to be mass-produced in 1844, when Charles Goodyear patented the vulcanization of rubber. In the 1930s, latex was introduced; in 1957, artificial lubrication.

shower radio good-bye, tried to ignore the fact that I would soon be sacrificing 242 TV channels, took a last peek at the Paris Hilton video, and tapped out the following e-mail autoreply: I will be offline from 1/1–1/10, not, unfortunately, because I will be at sea or sunning on a remote island, but because I am doing a story on living the low-tech life for a high-tech magazine. Thus: no e-mail no cellphone no Foreman Grill, etc. If you would like to reach me, please try 212-*** -**** (no answering machine). You could also write me a letter (but don’t include the ZIP Code7)—or feel free to drop by.


Without a remote, I’m crouched in front of the TV like a caveman.

DAY 1:

NEW YEAR, OLD GEAR

Happy New Year! As on the previous approximately 18 New Year’s days, I wake with a nasty headache. There have been many such mornings when I wish I could go back in time. Twelve hours and 10 drinks would be ideal. Fifty years? Not so ideal. I am an expert at dealing with hangovers. My remedy involves 800 mg of Advil,8 a tangerine Emergen-C packet containing 1,000 mg of vitamin C and tons of potassium, an orange Gatorade,9 lots of water, strong coffee and a fried-egg-and-bacon sandwich. Today only the sandwich and H2O are valid options. “Put on your shoes,” Piper says, “and I’ll buy you a Bloody Mary with cheap vodka.” She’s right: My counterpart from ’54 wouldn’t be savoring a vodka like Skyy or Absolut that’s hyped as super-distilled. Back then gin was still the mainstay and vodka an obscure Russian novelty; Smirnoff was the first brand to gain popularity. Meanwhile, my doppelgänger’s milk and eggs were probably 78

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delivered by a milkman, unadorned with stamped expiration dates. And whereas the pig that produced his bacon was raised on a small farm (fewer than 200 animals), today’s mass-produced porker is likely to have been crammed together with some 150,000 other swine and continually dosed with antibiotics. And that’s just breakfast. In the ’50s, the typical American lusted not for a plasma TV or Treo 600 PDA/phone but for a Hoover washing machine and GE refrigerator.10 The average person today buys a new cellphone every 18 months, and two of the hottest magazines are Lucky (about the accumulation of stuff) and Real Simple (about how to stop stuff from overwhelming you). Yet as the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. As Elaine Tyler May recounts in Homeward Bound: American Families in the Cold War Era, Kelly Longitudinal Studies done at that time revealed women complaining “My husband continually seeks something new to own. He doesn’t keep his interest in one thing too long.” After all, is it really such a big leap from POPULAR SCIENCE’s November 1953 feature “How You’ll Get TV Colorcasts” to the magazine’s April 2004 story about how to hack your TiVo to get an extra 150 hours of storage time? Fifty years later, we’re still trying to keep up with the Joneses. I’m sure my bloodshot counterpart would have ended his New Year’s Day in front of the tube, so I turn on the ’52 Zenith. I’m distressed at having to drum my fingers for a full minute while the TV warms up. The culprit is 1950sera tube technology. The metal in a cathoderay tube had to heat up before the tube would function; the transistors in modern TVs, by contrast, operate with no startup delay.11 The past half century has yielded dramatic advances in TV transmission and image quality—first color, then stereo sound, cable transmission, satellite delivery, digitally transmitted signals and, most recently, the advent of high-definition TV, which is expected to be the industry standard by 2006. So Piper and I expect some waves or ripples, but the picture on our ’52 Zenith is as sharp as that of our six-year-old Sony. Without a remote, I’m crouched in front of the TV like a caveman; still, I start instinctually flipping. Charlie Rose. The Orange Bowl. The Simpsons. Everybody Loves Raymond. The Drew Carey Show. Leno and Letterman. Few enough options that you can toss your TV Guide,12 but still not too bad. I pop two aspirin and settle in to enjoy Dave’s delightful interview with director Barry Sonnenfeld. Twenty minutes later, the TV makes what I’ve since diagnosed as “a funny sound.” Poof!

7 The Zoning Improvement Plan, or ZIP Code, was devised by postal worker Robert Aurand Moon and adopted by the U.S. Postal Service in 1963. Moon, who became known as Mr. Zip, was national director of delivery services in Washington, D.C., from 1970 to 1977. He died in 2001 at the age of 83. 8 Ibuprofen (Advil’s active ingredient) was invented in 1969—the same year as ATMs, the barcode scanner and in vitro fertilization—and approved by the FDA for over-the-counter sales in 1984. Back in 1954, the only over-the-counter pain medicine was good old aspirin, a remedy originally derived from willow tree bark that was marketed starting in the 1890s. Tylenol, or acetaminophen, debuted in 1955 as a children’s elixir—it was packaged to look like a red fire truck. The first adult version appeared in 1960. 9 D’Oh! I had hoped that Gatorade was one of those drinks that had been around forever. No such luck. Gatorade was created in 1965 by researchers at the University of Florida bent on creating a hydrating drink for the Florida Gators. The Gators then kicked butt— they went to back-to-back bowl games in ’65 and ’66. 10 The post–World War II era was a time of unprecedented consumption. In the four years following the war, Americans purchased 20 million refrigerators, 5.5 million stoves and 11.6 million TVs. Air conditioners were also hot items. 11 While modern TVs rely on transistors for their circuitry, they still contain a cathoderay tube that shoots electrons at the screen to create the picture (LCD and plasma screens excepted). The transistor was invented in 1947 at AT&T’s Bell Telephone Laboratories in Murray Hill, New Jersey. 12 TV Guide debuted on April 3, 1953. It cost 15 cents and its first cover featured Lucy and Desi’s baby Desi Arnaz Jr.

Fade to black. At least this solves the problem of who will get up to turn it off. DAY 2:

THE FEEDING FRENZY

When friends heard about my foray into the simple life, they were evenly split as to whether the lack of e-mail or cellphone would break me first. Both camps were wrong: It’s the bad coffee that’s killing me. “In 1954, most home coffee drinkers in the U.S. used electric percolators,” explains Gregory Dicum, author with Nina Luttinger of The Coffee Book: Anatomy of an Industry from Crop to the Last Drop, when I called him for input. “And make sure you brew it weakly,” he instructs. “You should be able to see your spoon all the way to the bottom of a ’50s-style coffee cup.” New York City’s coffee of choice in the ’50s was Chock full o’ Nuts, which happens to be running a new campaign to bring it back in vogue, passing out free packets on city street

corners. I’m not chock full o’ guts, though, so for the first couple of days the 12-cup percolator I’ve procured remains unsoiled, and it’s out into a modern world for a cup of coffee (diner swill only, no Starbucks). Thankfully, since I live in New York City, things are not so bad on the ’50s food front. Before we bring back our Foreman Grill and microwave,13 I promise to take Piper out to some classic restaurants. The good news: No fast food.14 At Peter Luger Steak House, where the porterhouse costs $37, Kenny the bartender tells us that in ’54 a proper Manhattan was made with rye, not bourbon.15 At Eisenberg’s, a tiny counter that’s been around since 1929, the chocolate egg creams, today as always, have no egg in them, and the tuna salad recipe hasn’t changed, though of course now the tuna could be accompanied by fries cooked in genetically modified corn or canola oil.16 “The only thing that is changed is that I 80

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took out the soda fountain,” explains Steve Oh, a Chinese guy who bought the place 17 years ago from a Jewish guy (who bought the place from Mr. Eisenberg). “The young people like the cans better.” DAY 3:

WHEN RADIO RULED

I stroll to the subway. I’m on my way to Waves, an antique audiovisual paradise near the Garment District. Here are the things I am not carrying with me: a Web-enabled cellphone with built-in camera, an iPod, a Palm PDA and an old and heavy iBook. I look nothing like my ’54 counterpart would, he of the natty gray flannel suit and fedora. He would probably have carried only a briefcase, but he would have been more likely than I, at the age of 35, to have a wife and kids, and so would have had the weight of the world as well. Left multi-taskless, I am more aware of the people around me, the architecture, my own thoughts. It reminds me of the long-gone days when I used to love roaming around a city and overhearing other people’s conversations. Now I remember how much I used to enjoy this voyeuristic little kick—it sure beats walking around with headphones beaming an Alicia Keys song downloaded from Kazaa. I buy a single-ride MetroCard (the closest approximation to the single-use token employed in ’54) and make my way to Waves, where Bruce and Charlotte Mager rent and sell phonographs, cylinder record players and black-and-white televisions. Some of their TVs come with an oil-filled magnifying screen that is slightly larger than the TV’s own; when placed in front of a small television, the magnifier enlarges the image—which would have enabled the whole family to better enjoy Milton Berle on Tuesday nights. Back then, TV was an event, and viewers were willing to gather round it when their favorite show aired. The introduction of the VCR17—and more recently, digital recording devices like TiVo—changed that, creating a world in which viewers expect entertainment on demand (music junkies dream of a “celestial jukebox” that would make any song ever recorded just a click away). The radios particularly fascinate me. After the Korean War, transistors replaced tube technology, but as Bruce Mager explains, the tube still lives. “A lot of people are actually going back to tube technology because it gives off a warmer sound. A speaker in a wooden enclosure sounds nicer than a speaker in a plastic container.” In the ’50s, Americans enjoyed more varied radio programming than one finds today (unless you subscribe to a satellite service).

13 The first commercial microwave hit the market in 1947, but like many early versions of now-ubiquitous items, they were gigantic (5 1/2 feet tall, 750 pounds) and expensive (up to $5,000). In the late ’60s, prices dropped, and by 1976 microwaves were more popular than dishwashers. 14 Ray Kroc opened the first McDonald’s franchise in Des Plaines, Illinois, in 1955. The first drive-through window opened in 1975 in Sierra Vista, Arizona. 15 “Rye, the spicier, more flavorful predecessor of bourbon, was crippled by Prohibition and never recovered,” says Anthony Giglio, Boston Magazine wine and spirits columnist and author of the forthcoming Cocktails in New York. When alcohol was re-legalized in 1933, liquor companies wanted to get their product out in a hurry. They tended to ignore rye because it takes six years or more to age, as opposed to bourbon’s four. Also, rye’s powerful flavor came as an unwelcome shock to drinkers who had become accustomed to watery bathtub gin. 16 The first commercially grown genetically modified food was a tomato called the FlavrSavr. Created in 1992 by a California company named Calgene, this tomato created a stir, but genetic engineering of foods has since become commonplace in the U.S. The USDA estimates that 38 percent of the 79 million acres of corn planted in 2003, as well as 80 percent of the 73 million acres of soybeans, contained genetically engineered varieties. 17 In 1975, Sony created the Betamax, the first videocassette recorder (VCR) for home use. A year later, Japan Victor Company (JVC) began selling a VCR with a different format (VHS) that could record more video on a single tape. Sony soon switched to VHS manufacturing, and by the time VCRs took off in the early ’80s, VHS was the standard.

The programs were there because people were listening. “People often had several radios in the house,” Mager says. “There was always one in the living room that the whole family sat around.” His shop is filled with beauties. Mager explains that in the ’50s, prices were coming down so companies like Philco, Zenith and Motorola started sprucing up their looks to compete—much the way television and computer manufacturers do today. Mager lends me a Motorola AM/FM that illuminates when turned on. It’s the bestlooking appliance that has ever graced my bedroom. He also lets me try out a Columbia phonograph housed in a wooden case, to play the 78s and 45s I’ve borrowed from Piper’s dad. There are two buttons: volume setting and treble setting. In goes an extended-play 45 of Columbia Records’ Johnny Cash Vol. 2 (in “guaranteed high fidelity”) that includes “Frankie’s Man, Johnny,” “The Troubadour” and “Don’t Take Your Guns to Town.” Johnny has recently been buried, but his spirit still circles round and round. DAY 4:

HANGING ON THE LINE

DAY 5:

WITHDRAWAL SETS IN

OK, by now I’m starting to feel weak—though I’m ashamed to admit what it is I miss. I miss Tellme, the 800 number that gives free sports scores, stock news, weather reports, movie times and other essentials for civilized living. I miss the on-screen TV ticker telling me how many yards Steve McNair threw for today, since my 52-year-old boob tube cuts off the bottom of the screen. I miss my iBook and my desktop iMac. I can figure out a way to mop my floor without my Swiffer, but without the ability to process words, I am at a loss. What can I do with the Royal? Not much. I type a thank-you note for the New Year’s Eve party, with an apology that the font makes it look like a ransom note. How did anyone ever write a novel on one of these things? Typewriter aficionado Tony Casillo thinks the typewriter made people more creative, forcing the Ray Bradburys22 and Jack Kerouacs to stop and think before spewing words on the page.23 “The typewriter,” he says, “is a great example of a perfect combination of function and form.” I would argue that so is Apple’s first line of iMacs, but perhaps I am just cranky from making so many mistakes (without the aid of Liquid Paper, invented by Bette Nesmith Graham in 1956) on what is certainly a Royal pain in the ass. But there are, I am beginning to notice, a few things that I don’t miss. Like obsessively checking phone messages and e-mail. Yelling, to no one in particular, that the cable modem is too *#@!’ing slow. Getting the same sports scores three different ways—from ESPN.com, the TV screen in an office-building elevator, and the New York Post. And then there are all the beeps. Cellphone beeps. Microwave beeps. The beeps the cursor makes at the end of a document in Microsoft Word. DAY 6:

SWANK RIDE, DADDY-O

Lenny Shiller and I are cruising through Brooklyn in a ’52 Nash Statesman—what Shiller calls “a classic makeout car” because the front seat folds back to form a bed. Impeccably designed by Pininfarina, the body is beige and the top burgundy, with an art deco interior. The backseat is bigger than (CONTINUED ON PAGE 122)

Check out articles and adverts that appeared in POPULAR SCIENCE in 1954: popsci.com/exclusive 82

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y

I try to make an airline reservation without a touch-tone phone.18 US Airways hangs up on me twice while I wait for someone to pick up (the days of “If you’re using a rotary phone, please hold and someone will be with you shortly” are fading fast). Without a headset I get neck cramps (and can’t do the dishes while stuck on hold for 15 minutes). And the problem isn’t limited to airlines: The better restaurants require a touch-tone phone to navigate their many commands. Unlike my nice cordless digital phone with its pleasing cadence, this Wesson Electric rotary has the sort of ring usually reserved for fire drills or warnings of invading armies. It shocks my cats into bolting under the bed. And when I pick up, a different sort of screech greets me. “You’ve been impossible to get ahold of,” says my mother. “I don’t like this experiment.” Since people can’t e-mail me, the phone rings all the time, yet I never know who’s on the other end of the line.19 I’m exposed! It’s only day four. It’s Sunday night but I can’t watch HBO, so I put Sinatra on the phonograph, make a pitcher of martinis and gather some friends around a mint condition 1952 Scrabble board20 that I had procured in advance from eBay for $4. We munch on Lipton’s old-fashioned onion dip with chips, and revel in the

fact that in 1954 Mr. Atkins was 24 years old and had not invented a diet that causes thousands to drop their chips.21

18 The touch-tone phone was invented in 1963 at AT&T Bell Telephone Laboratories. 19 Caller ID was patented in 1983 by Carolyn Doughty of AT&T Bell Laboratories (now a division of Lucent Technologies). 20 Scrabble was trademarked by Parker Brothers in 1948 and gained real popularity in the early ’50s when the president of Macy’s discovered it while on vacation. Clue, Monopoly, Candyland and Sorry! are other pre1954 board games that remain popular today. But games like Parker Brothers’ Little Red School House and Cowboy Roundup or Bee-Line Products’ Galloping Golf, a golf-dice game from 1950, have vanished into obscurity. 21 In the 1950s, amphetamines were sometimes used to combat weight gain. Towards the end of the decade, though, Nathan Pritikin started a new trend after battling his own heart disease with a diet skewed toward whole grains and vegetables. Though based on sound nutritional principles, the high-fiber, low-fat Pritikin diet has recently been eclipsed by the Atkins diet, which encourages followers to splurge on high-fat foods. 22 Bradbury typed one of his best-known works, Fahrenheit 451 (published in 1953), in the basement of UCLA’s library, using a pocketful of dimes to power the library’s pay-as-you-go typewriters. 23 On second thought, Kerouac is probably a bad example of stopping and thinking before spewing. He wrote On the Road in 21 days on a continuous scroll of typewritten pages he taped together. He and his cohorts thrived in an underground artists’ movement during the height of 1950s consumerism. Kerouac labeled the group, which included Allen Ginsberg and Lawrence Ferlinghetti, the Beat Generation—a reference to their goal of achieving beatitude, a state of utmost bliss.

DARPA’S DEBACLE IN THE DESERT BEHIND THE SCENES AT THE DARPA GRAND CHALLENGE, THE142-MILE ROBOT RACE THAT DIED AT MILE 7

BY JOSEPH HOOPER PHOTOGRAPHS BY MICHAEL DARTER

WITHOUT A WHIMPER: The Blue Team’s autonomous motorcycle (below), in a typical pose during qualifying trials at the California Speedway; left: a spectator catches the “action” on race day.

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8

WHEN LAST WE VISITED WITH THE MEN AND WOMEN,

the boys and girls, the Red Teams and Blue Teams and Road Warriors of the DARPA Grand Challenge off-road robotics race, back in March, we signed off on a note of authentic ambivalence. The teams themselves were all over the map, from rehearsing victory speeches to praying they would pass the qualifying round and be allowed on to what was anticipated to be a 210-mile course from outside Los Angeles through the Mojave Desert to somewhere just west of Vegas. The race’s organizers, for their part, couldn’t quite muster a consensus on how to handicap the event. Race manager and resident sunny optimist Col. Jose Negron unblinkingly predicted that a team would cross the finish line in under 10 hours to claim DARPA’s million-dollar prize in the race’s inaugural run—yet course designer Sal Fish couldn’t bring himself to share this official vision. “It’s still hard to get it in my brain,” Fish said, “that this is all going to happen with robots.” Chalk one up for Mr. Fish.

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WHAT WENT WRONG? In a sense, noth-

ing. These results were—or should have been—entirely unsurprising. Unlike the computer whirring on your desk, mobile robots have to thrash around in the real world, which makes the entire enterprise finicky and unpredictable. The 15 machines that took the starting line in Barstow, California, were attempting a quantum jump in performance over the robots that putter around university artificial-intelligence labs, avoiding table legs at one or two miles an hour. To have a shot at the deadline and the big prize on what was ultimately a 142-mile course (prudently downsized to make a 10-hour, one-day race a feasible goal) from Barstow to Primm, Nevada, the Grand Challenge bots would have had to average nearly 15 mph, and in the flat stretches reach speeds of up to 50 mph. They would stay in one piece by tracking via GPS technology the latitude-longitude waypoints that defined the course and avoiding obstacles with their own internal THE SCORECARD sensors: video cameras, laser scanOf the 15 qualifiers, ners, radar and the like. Good luck. 9 made it past the By comparison, the winning vehicle starting line. Here’s how far past: CMU in the last Baja 1000 off-road race, Red Team [22], 7.4 with an actual human behind the miles; SciAutonics II wheel, averaged just over 50 mph, [21], 6.7 miles; Digithough on much stiffer terrain. tal Auto Drive [7], 6 Traversing less than six percent miles; The Golem of the course may not sound like a Group [9], 5.2 miles; Team Caltech [5], grand result, but it should be noted 1.3 miles; Team Terthat the four lead bots did get raMax [20], 1.2 through the first section of the miles; SciAutonics I course, a flat looping dirt road that [17], 0.75 mile; Team passed through four fence-gate CIMAR [4], 0.45 openings, each only about 12 feet mile; Team ENSCO wide. After mile 4, the narrow, rocky [13], 0.2 mile.

Here, to spare you the suspense, is how things looked once the dust had cleared on race day, March 13: Carnegie Mellon University’s “Red Team,” the presumptive race favorite—in the minds of many race insiders, the only team with a realistic shot at the million-dollar prize—had ended the race at mile 7.4, its Humvee’s belly straddling the outer edge of a drop-off, front wheels spinning freely, on fire. SciAutonics II dropped out of the running at mile 6.7, its Israeli dune buggy stuck in an embankment. Digital Auto Drive quit at mile 6.0, its Toyota Tundra stymied by a football-size rock. The Golem Group stopped at mile 5.2, its pickup stuck on a hill with insufficient throttle to move forward. Team Caltech, another race favorite, dropped out at mile 1.3, its Chevy Tahoe SUV having careened off course and through a fence. Team TerraMax, a heavyweight collaboration between Ohio State University and the Oshkosh Trucking Corporation, was out at mile 1.2, stopped of its own accord, a 32,000-pound six-wheel military truck flummoxed by some bushes. These, it should be noted, were the Grand Challenge success stories. The rest of the field went haywire at or just beyond the starting chute in full view of the press who packed the grandstands erected for the event. The two teams that had become media darlings and unofficial DARPA pets had suffered particularly inglorious flameouts. At the last minute, Anthony Levandowski, the UC Berkeley grad student-cum-visionary behind the Blue Team’s autonomous motorcycle, scratched from the race proper, his navigation systems nowhere near race-ready. But, as he proved on an earlier qualifying attempt, Levandowski had successfully realized an ingenious software system that could keep the bike moving forward (or in circles) through constant 86

steering and countersteering corrections. At the Grand Challenge, DARPA agreed to let him stage a remote-control demonstration for the by now autonomousbike-crazed media. Alas, when the checkered flag went down, so did the bike, without a whimper. The first attempt of the high school team from Los Angeles, the Palos Verdes High School Road Warriors, aborted when their vehicle, a modified Honda Acura MDX, lurched right immediately after start-up and headed for the grandstands until DARPA hit the disabling “E-Stop” button. Race organizers granted the team the luxury of a second try and time to make some quick software fixes, and for Take 2, the Acura came roaring out of the gate hard left and knocked over a two-and-half-foot-high concrete guard before DARPA could hit the E-Stop, a don’t-try-this-at-home moment of autonomous mayhem that proved popular with the evening TV news broadcasts.

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T H I S PA G E : M AT T H E W J O H N S O N - R O B B E R S O N / C M U

road begins its snake-line ascent of a been capable of writing a different vertiginous ridge, a series of tight ending (and, for that matter, middle) switchbacks with cliff drop-off on one to the Grand Challenge. The Red side, hillside on the other, and heartTeam had a fanaticism more typical break written all over it. Making it only of an underdog, enviable material partway up Daggett Ridge is no shame. resources (it had become one of corAfter the race, some of the robotics porate America’s more assiduous teams grumbled that DARPA—the shakedown artists), and a culture of Defense Department’s R&D wing, discipline that emanated from the big which staged the race in an effort to man himself. The result was a battletap the deep well of American amatested Humvee that was churning teur ingenuity—had guaranteed that through impressive autonomous test its Grand Challenge would be a short runs in the Mojave in February, when HAIRPINNED The Red Team’s Sandstorm and unhappy one with Daggett Ridge most of the other competitors had yet crashed 10 days before the race, destroying so close to the start, instead of reversto plug in all of their circuit boards. a quarter million dollars’ worth of equipment. ing course and running the race from Technically speaking, Whittaker Primm to Barstow instead. It’s a figured that Sandstorm’s edge derived debatable point. The Primm area has from its elaborate mapping system, its own minefields, notably silt beds and a steep ridgeline which electronically stores information (roads, topography, about 12 miles from the finish. notable features) about every square meter of the course. If DARPA was plainly guilty of anything, it was not manDuring the Grand Challenge qualifying trials held at the Calaging inflated expectations. Instead of billing this inaugural ifornia Speedway in Fontana the week before the race, the Grand Challenge as a not-ready-for-prime-time field test to Red mapping team would repair after each day at the track calibrate what was needed for future efforts, race manager to a hillside trailer adjacent to the Divine Word Mission. The Negron, in the months leading up to the checkered flag, congospel according to Carnegie Mellon involved punching up tinued to predict a victor. (At a press conference before the contiguous sections of the Mojave Desert on 15 separate race’s start, Negron’s second-in-command, Tom Strat, wisely computers, each Red Team “editor” working away at optiif belatedly redefined victory as a matter of winning young mizing Sandstorm’s routes and speeds as the vehicle passed, techie hearts and minds, not miles traveled: “I can’t tell you in virtual computer reality, through his or her respective if the vehicles will go 1 mile or 20 miles, but I can say the block of the master map. Two nights before the Barstow Grand Challenge has already been a great success.”) start, the team’s technical director, Ph.D. candidate Chris DARPA had gone so far as to remake a 6,500-seat arena in Urmson, tried to dispel any excess of editorial caution. “We Buffalo Bill’s Resort & Casino in Primm (a cheap Vegas have a battering ram of a car,” he said. “At 22 mph, Sandknockoff a half hour southwest of the city) into the Challenge storm is just a beast on a roll.” Operations Center. Once the bots were well launched, the The Palos Verdes High School team had its own technical media were to leave the spartan charms of the starting-gate issues to contend with at the qualifying trials, knottier in their bleachers by Barstow’s Slash X Ranch Cafe roadhouse and way than any computerized map. The Road Warriors, almost hightail it over to Buffalo Bill’s to nosh, listen to a smoothfrom their inception, had been riven by two distinct parental rock cover band, and follow the race progress on two huge factions. One group, consisting of Alice Parker, a USC electriscreens running bits of video footage shot from DARPA helical engineering professor, and her husband Don Bebel, an copters as the bots made their way to the finish line just outengineer at Northrop Grumman, had mentored a group of side the Buffalo Bill’s parking lot. But what to do when the technically sophisticated students—first among them Joe race was effectively over by 9 a.m. and officially over by 11? Bebel, the couple’s wunderkind 16-year-old son—who had At noon, the Buffalo Bill’s operaworked up their own Linux-based 74 tions center had the sad, pretentious operating system to drive the team’s look of an overproduced birthday autonomous Acura. An opposing COUNTDOWN TO IGNOMINY [1] Carnegie party or bar mitzvah for which the group of engineer parents emerged Mellon’s Red Team warms up in the predawn guests had all declined to show up. The who resented what they perceived as darkness of race day, just before receiving the 2,000 GPS waypoints that defined the eye couldn’t fail to notice one tall, powParker’s and Bebel’s proprietary attiGrand Challenge course; [2] an ecstatic erfully built 60-year-old man slumped tude toward the project and who Road Warrior watches as the Palos Verdes back in his chair. William “Red” Whitjumped at any chance to jettison the High School Doom Buggy makes its most taker, CMU robotics professor and homegrown Linux system for a comsuccessful qualifying run—a full half circuit eponymous leader of the Red Team, mercial Windows-based one that they of the track—before crashing into a parked had made sure he was in Primm well regarded as technically superior and car; [3] SciAutonics II’s modified Israeli dune buggy idles prerace; [4] John Hind of ahead of the 10-hour deadline, even as far more feasible for the non-nerd stuTeam Spirit of Las Vegas engages in some his team’s vehicle, Sandstorm, was dents—in many cases, their own feverish last-minute coding of the vehicle’s being dug out of the Daggett Ridge kids—to work with. By the time the communications software; [5] Joe Bebel dirt. “We’ve come back from worse,” he team arrived at the California Speedand fellow Road Warrior Chris Kleinhen said, looking utterly poleaxed. way, the Road Warriors had ruptured tweak the operating system; [6] the TerraWhittaker and his team were arat the seams, with Parker and Bebel Max 32,000 pound behemoth off to a good guably the one group that might have banished to the sidelines, and Joe and start—before being stymied by some bushes.

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D.A.D. BRINGS HOME THE BACON In a field of teams using off-the-shelf tech, one delivered true innovation.

DARPA ultimately cares little about the fate of civilian robots in the Mojave Desert. Yet it cares very much about the development of new robot technology, technology that will enable unmanned vehicles to autonomously monitor their surroundings, avoid boulders and potholes, and race to targets. By those criteria, the race did have a winner: Digital Auto Drive of Morgan Hill, California, which developed an innovative new robot vision system that, team leaders claim, nearly won them the race. In theory, the team’s strategy is simple: Avoid the struggle to combine data from multiple “active” sensing systems like radar and lidar. Create a real-time 3-D map of the course in front of the vehicle with video cameras alone. Choose a safe path through the upcoming terrain, then point the steering wheel down that path. Now do it while flying through the desert at up to 60 mph. The team, led by engineers David Hall and his brother Bruce, mounted two digital video cameras atop their 2003 Toyota Tundra. A processor transforms the images from the cameras into a 35-billion-pixel terrain map, and redraws that map 60 times a second. For each one of these updates, another processor creates up to 100 possible paths through the terrain, then rates each path based on how flat is is, how close it is to the DARPA-defined course, and the size of the obstacles on that path. (The team completely avoids the problem of object recognition by treating every bush like a boulder, and avoiding both.) Repeat the process 60 times a second: 35 billion pixels, 100 paths. Yet for all of D.A.D.’s innovations, a football-size rock lodged under a tire and ended its journey at mile 6.0. The team’s downfall lay not in its stereoscopic image system. Rather, a feedback loop wasn’t set properly, and the computer didn’t provide enough gas to barrel over the rock. Disappointing, yes, but the team remained optimistic. “If we only had two more programming days,” says Bruce Hall, “we would have completed the course.”—MICHAEL MOYER IN SUPER STEREOSCOPIC 3-D: D.A.D.’s vision quest.

his high-tech peers conscripted by the regnant adult mentors to work with the prefab Windows-based system they despised. The results on the test track were equivocal. The new adult team committed the fatal error of accidentally erasing its operating system code, which was by some accounts working very well. Late-night or all-night programming sessions at Fontana became routine (one 15-year-old student, Dan Jacobowitz, briefly wound up in the hospital for dehydration), as did a series of qualifying attempts that were embarrassing in their cumulative awfulness. Finally, Joe and the Linux warriors were brought in for one glorious autonomous run using the original Linux OS. The Doom Buggy navigated around more than half of the course, through cones, sand traps and fences, before crashing into a planted obstacle, a car parked on the track. “It was our one moment of glory,” said Graham Robertson, Palos Verdes science teacher and the team’s faculty leader. “I was thrilled that the students had done it and the adult mentors celebrated along with them even though they say that that system is not the way to go.” Added Joe, with characteristic diplomacy, “It was a nice moment to have one team again.” At around 3:30 a.m. on the day of the race, the 15 Grand Challenge competitors received from DARPA a CD containing the 2,000 or so GPS waypoints that described the Barstow-to-Primm course. The Red Team fed the information into the Sandstorm’s mapping software; in 10 minutes’ time it had mapped out the exact route it intended to follow. Projected race time: 13 hours—3 hours over the limit. From his après-battle station at Buffalo Bill’s, Whittaker seemed almost to savor the moment. “The easy thing to do would have been to relax and show up at the parking lot in Primm at 7 p.m., in 13 hours,” he said. “But we entered this challenge that was declared a year ago, and for us 10 hours was sacred.” The Red Team went back to the software, tweaking up vehicle speed and slicing the margin of error. “I was clear,” Whittaker said. “Let it run. Victory or death.” And so death it was. That Sandstorm expired near the top of Daggett Ridge, just a switchback away from 15 miles of clear sailing, was not, Whittaker feels, a reflection on route or racing strategy, which he regards as perfection itself. “By the time we finished,” he said, “we were tuning the vehicle to mud puddles.” The exact explanation for why Sandstorm carved a turn too sharply and nearly flipped over the side of an embankment awaits exhaustive analysis of the onboard data. But the team is agreed that the vehicle’s sensing systems had not fully recovered from a rollover crash during an overly ambitious test run 10 days before the race. A quarter million dollars’ worth of electronics was crushed in an instant. The team rose to the occasion—“that galvanizing moment that levels a team to its knees so that it rises to its own greatness,” in Whittaker’s Churchillian formulation. The parts were replaced, but the vehicle’s ability to reliably avoid obstacles was never quite the same. Sandstorm whacked fences and poles on that perfect route even before it entered its fatal hairpin turn. AT THE EVENING RECEPTION at Buffalo Bill’s, the DARPA offiC O U R T E S Y D A R PA

cials couldn’t congratulate themselves enough for a job well done. Even the disappointing matter of a 142-mile race that View a photo gallery from the race at popsci.com/exclusive 121

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BEFORE, DURING . . . AFTERMATH Sing Yiu Chung, the Blue Team’s programming whiz (left), makes some last-minute adjustments before the autonomous motorcycle’s 50-foot qualifying run. Top right: SciAutonics II’s dune buggy, on its way to a 6.7-mile run. Bottom left: The Palos Verdes High School “Doom Buggy,” after crashing into a concrete barrier. Bottom right: Team ENSCO, kiboshed after 0.2 mile. 128

lasted only 7.4 miles was jocularly laid at the feet of course designer Sal Fish, the president of the SCORE off-road racing organization. “The first part [of the course] was definitely the hard part, and I definitely blame Sal Fish,” DARPA director Anthony Tether declared in celebrity-roast high spirits. He was on firmer ground when he advanced an oft-repeated yet nonetheless plausible argument that the race had succeeded admirably in its primary mission of galvanizing engineers (even those still in high school) to get to work on a new generation of autonomous support and supply vehicles. Clearly, the Grand Challenge strange brew of technical audacity and Johnny-get-your-laptop populism had touched some kind of national nerve. “I haven’t seen this much interest in something related to national security since the days of the Apollo space program,” Tether declared, before announcing that Grand Challenge 2005 would go forward—this time with a $2 million prize. According to Red Whittaker’s e-mail “Race Log”—a kind of computer diary of Captain Ahab-ian obsession—filed in late March, “The Grand Challenge will be completed in September or October of 2005, hence about 550 days remain to race day.” The media might be a little wary about a full-court coverage of next year’s race, but evidently the people who build and sponsor robots can’t wait. (“Next year we’ll have seniors 92

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on the team,” Palos Verdes student leader Chris Seide exulted to the assembled multitudes.) DARPA’s Tom Strat anticipates some 500 aspiring entrants, five times the number this year. And while much of this year’s field was unable to cope even with preliminary trials—the first day at Fontana, only two of eight bots attempting to qualify made it out of the gate— the consensus is that, with the benefit of experience, next year’s second-time contenders ought to be ready to rumble. From DARPA’s perspective, what’s not to like? This just gives them another round of technological innovation paid for mostly by someone else. While Grand Challenge 2004 had its moments of wingingit improvisation, who’s to say it wasn’t the right hot-house atmosphere to grow the next generation of American roboticists? The Blue Team’s Anthony Levandowski, for one, learned something about grace under pressure. “Right before the demonstration, the crowd was cheering and we were so excited that we forgot to switch the bike over from autonomous to drive-by-wire,” he said. “Next time, I’ll have it tattooed to my arm.” Joseph Hooper has written for The New York Times Magazine, Men’s Journal and Esquire. He previewed the DARPA Grand Challenge in our March issue. 142

Boeing, Boeing,Gone?

The world’s greatest aviation company hasn’t launched a new airliner in 14 years. If the ultra-efficient technology of the 7E7 fails, Boeing could be grounded. BY BILL SWEETMAN

B ILLUSTRATION BY RYAN HESHKA

oeing’s best hope for survival as an aviation giant sits in a small warehouse in a Seattle industrial park. It’s a mock-up of the interior of a new jet, the 7E7 Dreamliner. Representatives from major airlines are steadily marching through it, trying to decide whether they want to buy it. From a passenger’s perspective, the 7E7 design is appealing: Artfully tapered arches frame a backlit ceiling. Bigger than normal windows reach above eye level. Electronically dimmable glass replaces clumsy plastic shades. Overhead bins big enough to swallow four full-size roll-ons blend smoothly into the ceiling.

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But airline reps are interested in more than passenger business—Pan American and British Overseas Airways Coramenities. They want to know whether Boeing—a company poration—flew Stratocruisers. Not only was the airplane legthat seems to be running out of feet to shoot itself in and that endary, so were the parties in its lower-deck bar, a cozy space is rapidly losing its supremacy to Europe’s Airbus—can deliv- reached by a spiral stairway and lit by the warm glow of flamer the 7E7’s promised savings and operational benefits. More ing engine exhaust. Though passengers loved the Stratocruiser, pressingly, they want to know whether Boeing can actually fol- only 56 were ever sold; its large size made it too expensive low through and build the Dreamliner. The company’s credi- to operate. The Stratocruiser was the inspiration for the bility took a hit in 2002 when it scrapped plans for the Sonic upstairs lounge on the 747. That lasted about five years, until Cruiser, a radical, tail-first jet that was supposed to fly as much airlines realized they could more profitably use the space for as 100 mph faster than today’s airplanes. Alan Mulally, Boe- additional passengers. This time, Teague and Boeing have ing’s unquenchably enthusiastic commercial airplanes boss, made sure that design appeal doesn’t come at the expense of had presented the Sonic Cruiser as a sure thing, the biggest revenue-providing seats. innovation in air travel since the jet engine. Then, nothing. With the Dreamliner, Boeing’s top management, including Boeing is promising that the Dreamliner will deliver a full 7E7 senior vice president Mike Bair and Boeing commercial 20 percent cut in fuel burn, and that its performance and operairplanes CEO Mulally, is challenging Airating costs will handily beat those of its closest rival, the Airbus’s strategy of building huge double-deckbus A330-200. Creating technology that lives up to such expecer airplanes like the A380. The real future of tations will be difficult and risky, but Boeing has no choice: air travel, according to Boeing, isn’t superThis is its only commercial jet in development. Dreamliner jumbos flying between mega cities; it’s chief engineer Walt Gillette concedes: “It could be the end of smaller airplanes connecting the midsize us” if the new jetliner does not succeed. cities that most people travel to. These are stormy times for the 88-year-old Today few pairs of cities are connected by intercontinental company, which launched the jet age in 1958 nonstop flights. If you live in Minneapolis, for instance, you with its elegant 707. Last year, Airbus delivcan fly direct to just three cities on the other side of the Atlantic ered more jets—305 to Boeing’s 281. It was or Pacific. Any other destination involves a plane change. The the first time another company had sursame, more or less, applies to Denver, Manchester, Lisbon and passed Boeing in jet sales. Airbus also has Osaka. Why? The smaller long-range jets on orders for 129 of its A380 superjumbos, the market today (around 250 seats) are scheduled to fly in 2005, while Boeing’s iconexpensive to operate, Mulally explains, so airic 747 is in trouble: Two attempts to sell lines funnel passengers through hubs where improved versions have fizzled, and Boeing they can fill a bigger, more economical 777 delivered only 19 last year. In October, weak or 747. But the 7E7 will be both small and sales forced Boeing to end production of its efficient, Boeing claims, making it possible 200-280-seat 757, and the 245-375-seat 767 to open up hundreds of city pairs. The reprobably won’t survive unless the company can close a deal to sult: faster, more convenient travel for the build 100 tanker versions for the U.S. Air Force. “Internally, majority of passengers, who will be able to they realize that they’re down to the 737 and 777,” says Byron bypass congested hubs. “How would you Callan, who studies the aerospace industry for Merrill Lynch. rather travel?” Mulally asks. Boeing officials have more than a sales slump to contend Boeing predicts airlines around the world with. Congress is scrutinizing the company’s proposed $17 bilwill buy its midsize 7E7 in vast quantities— lion lease of 100 refueling 767s to the Air up to 3,500 in the next 20 years—and that, by DREAM TEAM: Boeing’s fate now hinges on Force—initially because of the high cost of the 7E7 project, being led (from top) by contrast, Airbus’s 555-plus-seat A380 will be a the deal but more recently because of Walt Gillette, Klaus Brauer, Randy flop, confined to a few high-traffic routes like alleged improprieties. In November 2003, Baseler, Mike Bair and Alan Mulally. Singapore to London. With its cash reserves chief financial officer Mike Sears, heir drained by the big airplane, Boeing officials apparent to CEO Phil Condit, was fired. Condit’s investigators say, Airbus won’t be able to compete with the Dreamliner. had learned that Sears made overtures to a senior Air Force The 7E7 will come in three versions. The baseline 7E7-8 will procurement official, Darleen Druyun, about a Boeing job carry 217 passengers in a three-class cabin, with a range of up while Druyun was still overseeing the tanker project. One to 9,800 miles—New York to Hong Kong, for example. A shortweek later, Boeing’s board of directors asked for Condit’s head range 7E7-3 will have the same body length and shorter wings, and replaced him with Harry Stonecipher, a 67-year-old for- together with a lighter airframe and landing gear (Japanese airmer company executive coaxed out of retirement. One of lines, in particular, want an airplane that will fit the same gate Stonecipher’s main tasks, in his own words: “We’ll spend an as the 767 that they use today). And down the line, Boeing awful lot of time restoring our reputation. We have to deal plans a longer-body, heavier 257-seat 7E7-9 with a Singaporewith the perception that we’re a bunch of crooks.” to-New York range—9,600 miles. It’s not exactly the best time to try to sell a risky new projThe Dreamliner will be all things to all people, Boeing ect to a wounded, risk-averse airline industry. insists. In addition to offering airlines better performance at a lower price, it will cosset passengers with bigger windows THE SEATTLE-BASED design firm Teague Associates, which and wider seats. It’s being painted as the Leatherman of jets, created the Dreamliner’s interior, first partnered with Boeing able to make money carrying 200 passengers from New in 1947 on the Stratocruiser. The aristocrats of the airline York to Hong Kong but also performing well on 3,000-mile

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MAKING THE 7E7 FLY BOEING’S AMBITIOUS DESIGN SEEKS TO CUT AIRLINE COSTS, BOOST PASSENGER COMFORT.

Long-range Dreamliners will have 193-foot wingspans; short-range versions will be 20 feet narrower. Problem: Designing a wing that works well in both sizes.

Some customers want a cockpit that looks and feels like the 20-year-old 777, so pilots can be trained to fly both airplanes. Others want a more modern cockpit with bigger display screens.

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electrical ones. Removing air bleeds from the engine boosts efficiency. If the engines have to feed the cabin with pressurized air, they must be bigger so they will run properly when all the bleeds are working at maximum capacity (for example, if one engine has failed). That means that they are pumping extra air most of the time. Boeing will welcome passengers onto the 7E7 with sweeping arches, dynamic lighting —the ceiling will feature a calming, simulated sky that enhances the perception of spaciousness—larger lavatories, and more spacious luggage bins. The Dreamliner will offer wider seats and aisles than competing models in every class. “Our 7E7 passengers will enjoy a more relaxed and spacious environment that makes their flights more comfortable,” said Klaus Brauer, Boeing's interior specialist.

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Boeing will be working overtime to live up to the high expectations it is creating with the Dreamliner, both among airline customers and their passengers. Though addressing the needs and desires of both are often distinctly separate efforts, the 7E7 engineers are exploiting some interesting overlaps. The use of composite materials in the fuselage, for example, will not only keep the airplane’s weight down, making it more fuel efficient, but will also make the installation of larger, heavier windows less costly. The 19 x 11-inch windows, the largest on any current commercial airplane, will give passengers a view to the horizon. The stronger composite fuselage also permits an increase in cabin pressure. The 7E7 cabin will be pressurized to 6,000 feet altitude, rather than 8,000 feet; the extra 2,000 feet made a huge difference to volunteers who helped with tests. Another environmental consideration: humidity. Airliner cabins are typically kept to Death Valley humidity levels—about 10 percent —to avoid moisture build-up in the bilges, but composites don’t corrode, so the 7E7 will be closer to the 20 to 30 percent minimum recommended by environmental health standards. Boeing is pursuing numerous other advances. It is removing from the engine the geardriven hydraulic pumps that drive the controls and landing gear, and valves that bleed compressed air to pressurize the cabin and keep ice off the wings, replacing these systems with

Some airlines want Boeing to give the pilots Airbus-like sidestick controls. Boeing thinks that old-style yokes are safer; most of its customers, who fly both Airbus and Boeing jets, don’t agree.

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domestic flights within the United States, or on shorter trips within Japan with 250-plus passengers squeezed into tighter seats. Or, with 440 passengers in nine-abreast seating, it could make 2,000-mile holiday flights from Northern Europe to beach-party destinations. Airlines love such versatility— among other things, it makes airplanes easy to resell and boosts their book value. The trouble is that Boeing’s various goals for the 7E7 conflict. Wider seats mean a wider cabin, and basic geometry tells us (at least those of us who weren’t passing notes in math class) that the volume of a cylinder goes up with the square of the diameter. Result: more weight and more drag. Versatility isn’t free either. More range and a bigger payload demand more fuel, a stronger, heavier wing to carry it and bigger engines to handle the greater weight.

at the aft edge of the wing reveals a set of simple, multipurpose moving surfaces, replacing complex flaps. The biggest innovation in the 7E7 is that most of the wing and body will be made from carbon-fiber composite—strong strands of pure carbon bonded together with resin. Fighter wings and jetliner tail surfaces have been made from carbon fiber since the early 1980s; Boeing plans to make the 7E7 from the same fibers and resins that it uses on the 777 tail. There is no reason a composite wing can’t be built. Boeing made carbon-fiber composite wings for the 7E7-size B-2 bomber 15 years ago. The question is whether the weight savings are worth the cost (the B-2 was not exactly cheap, even by Pentagon standards). A jetliner’s wings carry greater loads than the tail, so the skin must be inches thick, comprising hundreds of plies of fiber. “The challenge isn’t building an aircraft but building so many airplanes economically each month, and physically laying down that amount of material,” says Bair, adding, “It’s not insurmountable.” It had better not be insurmountable, because Boeing has no backup, such as an advanced aluminum structure, in the works. “There’s no fallback,” says Bair. “We know we can make it work.” The fuselage presents different challenges. A jetliner’s fuselage is under constant stress from cabin pressure in flight. When it’s built from aluminum, designers worry about fatigue, the gradual weakening of the metal. Composites are impervious to fatigue, which is caused by metal’s crystalline structure—something composites don’t have. The bad news: Impact damage can cause the composite plies to separate, weakening the skin even though the damage remains invisible. While tail surfaces are safe from most impacts, airplane bodies are not. In Bair’s words: “There are areas on the fuselage that get attacked by ground equipment, by a galley service truck on a rampage.” The solution, says Gillette, is to embed in the 7E7 fuselage electronic sensors that can detect changes in stress patterns that are caused by internal damage. The sensors will be linked to a “neural net” computer that “learns what normal is.” If a hungover loader on the Heathrow ramp misjudges his distance, “the system knows

Dreamliner chief engineer Walt Gillette concedes “It could be the end of us“ if the new jetliner does not succeed.

A RIVALRY IN THE MAKING

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Boeing 707, introduced in 1958, launches the jet age. It’s expensive, but its speed (doubling that of pistonengine airliners) makes it productive.

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1960s Boeing introduces the 737 in 1967. It becomes the bestselling and longestrunning airliner in production. The jet has since undergone two extensive makeovers to keep it competitive.

1970s Boeing’s iconic 747, introduced in 1970, doubles the size of most airliners. Upstart Airbus delivers its first commercial jet, the A300—the first twinaisle, twin-jet airliner. Boeing sees no threat.

1980s In 1982, Boeing’s 767 becomes the first longrange airliner to be allowed transoceanic flights with just two engines. The Airbus A320, in 1987, is the first highly automated, fly-by-wire aircraft.

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BOEING ENGINEERS aren’t counting on fundamental design changes to fulfill their grand vision. The company recently backed away from its research into a radical airliner design, the Blended Wing Body (BWB), a flying wing. The retreat caused some controversy within Boeing, because more than a decade of design work has indicated that a blended wing body could be more efficient than a conventional jet—and cheaper to build. George Muellner, Boeing’s vice president for Air Force programs, has complained of a “tube-and-wing mentality” at the company. (Today Boeing would rather not talk about the BWB at all. Though the concept is being pursued for military applications, the BWB page has been excised from the company’s Web site. A request for an interview with the BWB’s creator, Boeing senior technical fellow Robert Liebeck, draws an instant, snippy response: “Our market forecast for the next 20 years does not include commercial applications for the BWB concept. Since our leadership is of one mind on this issue, we don’t believe a further interview on this subject is necessary.”) Since they aren’t introducing a new design, the 7E7 looks like a smaller 767 or a 777—with a nose job. A sleeker nose will reduce drag and cockpit noise, program manager Mike Bair points out. Don’t expect the shark-like tail from the artists’ concepts to appear on the real airplane, but a close look

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AIRBUS ASCENDANT: The super-jumbo A380, a massive two-deck airliner that will carry more than 555 people, could place Airbus on top for good.

it’s been hit and that its response to the load is different.” Because composites don’t expand or contract with changing temperatures as much as metal does, it’s easier to build the airplane from large “snap-fit” components, saving assembly time, Gillette says. Boeing wants to build its body “barrel” sections in one piece, using robots to wind fibers around a 20foot-diameter tool. And switching from aluminum alloys to composites will align Boeing with a larger research and development community. “The world is working on toughened composites [for railroads, bridges and autos],” says Gillette. On the horizon: nanotubes and new fibers that may be 10 times stronger than carbon. Composites save an impressive amount of weight—the 7E7 will weigh 10 tons less than the shorter-range A330, says Boeing—but that translates into a fuel-burn savings of only 2 to 3 percent. The biggest single fuel saver will instead be the 7E7’s new engines. In April Boeing picked General Electric and Rolls-Royce to build new engines for the Dreamliner, rejecting a proposal from a third competitor, Pratt & Whitney.

1990s In 1993, Airbus introduces the A330 and A340—similar, larger versions of the A320. In 1995, Boeing delivers the 777, a versatile, fly-by-wire jet.

2000s

DESIGNING AND BUILDING an all-new jetliner is a venture that leaves little change out of $10 billion. That’s one of many reasons why aerospace is no place for wimps. Nobody takes that risk without solid commitments from customers. Boeing is already soliciting 7E7 orders from key buyers like Singapore Airlines, an acknowledged leader in long-distance travel, and All Nippon Airways, a likely launch customer for the shortrange model. “Launch” customers—those who buy airplanes off the drawing board—are taking a risk of their own. But Boeing has a track record of delivering airplanes on time and on spec, and the upside is often a significant discount. Boeing will likely need to secure buyers for up to 100 Dreamliners before it turns on the money spigot. Outwardly, there’s no lack of confidence: Officials say they hope (CONTINUED ON PAGE 134)

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Airbus confirms launch of the two-deck A380. Boeing, having said there’s no market for the A380, unveils its Sonic Cruiser proposal. Low interest from airlines kills it in 2002.

GE’s GENX is expected to use 20 percent less fuel, for the same power, than the GE engine on the Airbus A330-200. The GENX is based on the technology used in the GE90-115B, just entering service on Boeing’s 777, and currently the world's most powerful engine, capable of producing 115,000 pounds of thrust. Rolls-Royce’s Trent 1000 engine builds on the Trent 900, which the company is developing for the A380. The 7E7 will replace some pneumatic and hydraulic systems with electrically powered ones. Hydraulic technology, such as the pumps that bring landing gear up, is reliable, but it’s unique to aerospace, so the entire cost of developing it ends up in the price of Boeing’s jets. Electrical systems are more universal: “The whole world wants to develop highpower electric generators and controllers,” Gillette says. As a result, electric-powered devices should become more efficient and less costly.

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HOW2.O THIS MONTH GROK OGLE BUILD HACK ACQUIRE INTEGRATE EXPERIMENT

• • • • •

YOUR LIFE ON TECH > HACKS, UPGRADES, PROJECTS, GRIPES, TIPS & TRICKS

Pitting all-in-ones against SLRs 101 Procurement: Japanese imports 108 The future of Internet worms 101 Tech Support: RSS feeds, reader tips, Think Tank case mod, This is Broken 110 The Luddite: Casio Exilim EX-Z40 103 You 2.0: Game Ready muscle recovery machine 105 From the Frontier: GPS mapping in Tajikistan 108 Make your own classic arcade 104 Unlock your GSM cellphone 106

•

5 THINGS. . .

INTERNET WORMS WILL DO TO ATTACK YOU IN THE FUTURE GET INSTANT

1 An instant-messaging worm could infect 200,000 computers in 60 seconds by targeting IM vulnerabilities that allow it to spread without your double-click. Use software like Norton AntiVirus 2004 that scans IMs. PRETEND TO BE A FRIEND

2 A Microsoft-impersonating

worm recently infected 1.5 million machines in 24 hours. Worms will get even better at duping you into opening them by spoofing your mostused e-mail contacts. Create a keyword with friends that signals a legit attachment. APPEAR TO BE A PEER

3 KaZaa was the apparent launch pad for MyDoom, and P2P threats jumped 46 percent in the second half of 2003. Avoid .exe files from P2P sites, and scan all downloaded files with up-todate antivirus software.

4 ACQUIRE

DEPT: H2.0 Labs INVESTIGATOR: Mikkel Aaland

THE BATTLE OF THE PROSUMER DIGITALS

TOMER HANUKA

FINDINGS: Got a grand? A new crop of models brings the all-in-one vs. SLR debate to the digital realm.

TECH: Digital cameras RETAIL: $1,000 to $1,300 STREET: $780 to $1,300 BEST: Sony DSC-F828, Nikon D70 Steal

Splurge

Here’s the old logic: Digital SLRs—those bulky, expensive cameras with the interchangeable lenses—are for pros and hardcore hobbyists, while the cute little cameras with the built-in lenses (all-in-ones) are reserved for weekend shooters, who willingly trade some image quality for size and convenience. Well, not anymore. Both Canon and Nikon now offer prosumer-aimed SLR kits (camera body and lens) for about the same price (around $1,000) as some new top-of-the-line 8-megapixel all-in-ones. So now that you have a choice, which one should you choose? We put six models through controlled studio tests and a battery of everyday shooting situations, including an 8-year-old’s birthday party, complete with mock pirate invasion. Both types of cameras captured beautiful images, but that’s where the similarities stopped. >>

FLASH YOU

Today, worms spend time searching for security holes. But so-called “flash” worms will be programmed with a list of previously identified insecure machines, allowing them to start infecting almost instantly. Watch for software (under development) that monitors network traffic for identical packets coming and going—usually a worm. MUTATE

5 New polymorphic worms mutate every time they send, evading apps that only scan for known worm fingerprints. Expect antivirus software that also looks for worm behavior, such as new programs initiating network connections.—KATE ASHFORD POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

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H2.0

How 2.0 > H2.0 Labs // The Luddite

TWO DISTINCT BREEDS Before you can understand what these cameras do and don’t do well, you need to understand how they work. SLRs possess a traditional optical system (a mirror and prism) that can work with different lenses to transfer an image to both the viewfinder and the sensor. Allin-ones accomplish the same task using only electronics, but this gives them functionality not possible with SLRs, like capturing video or giving you a live preview of your shot on the LCD. (SLRs only let you review photos there; you must frame shots in the viewfinder.)

Those electronic innards also allow all-in-ones to live in much smaller bodies than SLRs. The Canon PowerShot Pro1 and Nikon Coolpix 8700, for example, are nearly half the size of the Canon Digital Rebel or Nikon D70.

IMAGE QUALITY For all their inner (and outer) differences, at this level both types of cameras take exceptional photos. The only situation in which one category outperformed the other was in low light, where the all-in-ones produced significantly grainier images than the SLRs. (The for-

mer use a sensor that’s physically smaller and therefore more prone to electronic “noise.”) And though these allin-ones capture 8 megapixels and the SLRs only 6, we had no trouble producing high-quality 16-by-20-inch prints from either. (Many factors—sensor design, optics, processing—are as important as pixel count in producing decent images.) Which is not to say all six cameras will give you the same image, particularly when shooting in JPEG mode (which calls on the camera’s internal processor) with default settings. For example, the Olympus

> The all-in-ones NIKON COOLPIX 8700 $1,000; street: $800

CANON POWERSHOT PRO1 $1,000; street: $940

$1,000; street: $780

$1,000; street: $850

HOW THEY STACK UP Test images were taken using the cameras’ highest-quality JPEG settings and reflect out-of-the-box performance. Shooting in these cameras’ RAW mode will produce different results. More on RAW next month.

102

CAMERAS RESPONSIVENESS

RESPONSIVENESS Here the debate comes into sharp focus. In short, if you shoot static things like grand canyons and fruit bowls, either type of camera will serve you well. But for shooting action— hyperactive kittens, cheetahs in the bush or just your kid’s soccer game—SLRs are the categorical hands-down winner. Overall responsiveness refers to all of the functions that determine how quickly a camera is ready to capture the shot you want. For example, start-up time—how long it takes the camera to power up and the zoom lens to extend— for most of the cameras was a reasonable 2 to 3 seconds (the D70 started up almost instantly and the CoolPix 8700 took 6 seconds). Shutter lag—another area that’s long been a problem with digital cameras—was almost nonexistent among these six models.

USER CONTROLS

ACTION

FLASH

LANDSCAPES

Canon Digital Rebel Excellent

Excellent

Excellent

Good

Excellent

Nikon D70 Excellent

Excellent

Excellent

Good

Good

Good

Fair

Good

Excellent

Poor

Fair

Good

Good

Fair

Fair

Good

Excellent

Good

Good

Good

Good

Canon PowerShot Pro1 Fair Nikon Coolpix 8700 Fair

POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

Olympus C-8080 Fair Sony DSC-F828 Good

JOHN B. CARNETT

OLYMPUS C-8080 WIDE ZOOM SONY DSC-F828

C-8080 Wide Zoom is biased to slight overexposure and undersaturation, while the Sony DSC-F828 tends to create flat images and the Rebel falls short on sharpening. (See the chart below for specific performance judgments on each of the cameras.) But, again, these are minor shortcomings on otherwise excellent images and all can easily be fixed using the camera’s settings or imaging software (a topic we’ll explore in depth next month).

NIKON D70 $1,300; street: same

Diary of a Tech Resister’s Temptation

EPISODE 3, PART I: TUESDAY, NOON I admit it: I’m excited. I’ve been wanting a camera that’s easy to carry, and this one is smaller than my wallet. TUESDAY, 2 P.M. Manuals are for grandparents. I’m ready.

H2.0 RECOMMENDS . . .

CANON DIGITAL REBEL $1,000; street: $900

F R O M L E F T: J O H N B . C A R N E T T; C O U R T E S Y C A S I O

ISO, the Sony to 800, the rest from 50 to 400). With the SLRs, it’s a no-brainer: Turn a few dials. The all-in-ones rely more on LCD-based menus and submenus, requiring more fumbling and more glances at the user manual. The Coolpix 8700 doesn’t even have the courtesy of icons, just a button that brings up cryptic text on the control panel like “SE 1,” for portrait mode, or “SCE 2,” for party/indoor mode.

INTEGRATE

> The SLRs

THE LUDDITE

Moral of the story: (most) of these all-in-ones are not just for amateurs anymore. For anyone who wants great allaround performance, we suggest the Sony F828. It’s not as responsive as the SLRs but was by far the best of its category, and it has a fast manualzoom 7x Carl Zeiss lens. It can also shoot 640-by-480pixel video at 30 frames per second until your memory card is full. Note that the Sony is a hulk—if size and weight are important, consider the competent and compact Canon Pro1. SLRs still rule for those who shoot a lot of action or need additional flexibility, and we love the Nikon D70. It’s a few hundred bucks more than the Rebel, but its better kit lens justifies the added cost. For a detailed review of each of these cameras, as well as examples of our test shots, go to popsci.com/h20.

At the 8-year-old’s birthday party, the SLR advantage became obvious. Before the pirates landed, the children were pretty calm, giving us time to play with prefocusing our shots. The all-in-ones took years (OK, several milliseconds) longer to auto focus than the SLRs—only the Sony came close. Once the pirates stormed the beach, the all-in-ones, with the exception of the Sony, simply could not keep up. Their electronic zoom controls were too sluggish to capture the panicky scattering children, and the view through their electronic viewfinders was so jerky and blurred, we never knew exactly what we’d get a shot of. The all-in-ones also produced a brief but disorienting blackout in both the

viewfinder and the LCD just after the shutter was released, slowing our shot-to-shot time. The SLRs, meanwhile, with their optical viewfinders and manual zoom, caught the action we wanted every time and were almost immediately ready for the next shot. The D70 even has a continuousshooting mode that can take three photos per second until the memory card is full (others have slower burst modes, limited to a handful of shots).

LOW LIGHT

PORTRAITS

SHARPNESS

EXPOSURE

COLOR-CAST

Excellent

Excellent

Soft

Slightly under

Orange/magenta

Excellent

Excellent

Slightly soft

Slightly under

Neutral

Fair

Excellent

Slightly soft

Normal

Slightly magenta/orange

Fair

Excellent

Slightly oversharp

Slightly under

Slightly magenta/orange

Fair

Excellent

Perfectly sharp

Normal

Neutral

Fair

Excellent

Slightly soft

Under

Slightly magenta/orange

USER CONTROLS The chaos on the beach also demonstrated to us how simple (or insanely difficult) it is to adjust settings like file type, image quality and shutter speed on the fly (incidentally, the SLRs go as high as 1600

CASIO EXILIM EX-Z40 $400; casio.com

BARRIER TO ENTRY Controls

not terribly intuitive

THE LUDDITE LIKES Size, video,

numerous settings

VERDICT I’m not giving it back

I snap a few shots of the office, but it feels as if something’s not quite right. TUESDAY, 3 P.M. I discover playback. Apparently, I was recording video clips. Didn’t know it had video. Sweet.

WEDNESDAY, 11:30 P.M. Recording videos of drunken St. Patrick’s Day revelers elicits unfriendly stares. Time to put camera away. FRIDAY, 3:15 P.M. At the hospital to take pics of a recovering friend. Battery dead. Go home, recharge, return. Memory full. Can’t find delete. Finally spot a trashcan icon. Free some space. MONDAY, 10 A.M. Notice there are 21 settings, including one called “text.” Shoot a magazine page (very Bond) and the result is shockingly readable. TUESDAY, 7 P.M. I plug the camera into my laptop, press the USB button, and the weekend’s photos pop up on the screen. Amazing. Now what do I do with them? (Editor’s note: Find out next month.)—GREGORY MONE POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

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H2.0

How 2.0 > DIY // You 2.0

BUILD

DEPT: DIY INVESTIGATOR: Paul Wallich

MAKE YOUR OWN ARCADE

With emulating software, an old PC and an empty game cabinet, you can recreate a classic arcade in your living room.

FINDINGS:

Space Invaders. Battlezone. Pac-Man. Donkey Kong. Mortal Kombat. Anyone who spent a geeky adolescence haunting loud, dimly lit arcades knows that playing those games on a PC just isn’t the same—a keyboard is a poor replacement for a joystick, and most PCs don’t stand up to even a single full body slam. So Tim Eckel, a selfemployed systems analyst, devised a compromise. He loaded an aging PC with MAME, a program that emulates old hardware so it can run more than 2,700 arcade games, and mounted it in a real game cabinet rescued from the junkyard. Replacing the picture tube with a used monitor and wiring controllers to a keyboard, he squeezed the entire arcade of his youth into one fairly inexpensive box. Dozens of enthusiasts have followed the trail he blazed—check out arcadeathome.com for a gallery of home-built boxes, and the other “Sources” (right) for all the info you need to create your own.

Arcade cabinet

free to $200 free to $150

Used monitor

free to $150

New controllers, including joysticks, buttons, trackball

$50 to $350

MAME Game ROMs

104

free free to $5

POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

Master

2 8 7

ASSEMBLING THE ARCADE [1] Get a used game cabinet. Try eBay, arcade suppliers or junkyards. [2] Strip out the guts, keeping the joysticks and firing buttons. [3] Mount a 17- to 21-inch CRT monitor behind the cabinet’s faceplate (a sheet of plywood and some L-shaped shelf brackets make a nice cradle). [4] Install MAME on an old PC (at least a 300MHz P2) and place it in the bottom of the cabinet. [5] Connect your control panel to the PC so that each joystick motion and press of a button represents a key or combination of keys (see “Cooking the controls,” below). [6] Load the ROM data for the games of your choice. (You can buy and download ROM images [see “Sources”] or get them free with gaming hardware.) [7] Wire a button to a key on your hacked keyboard that will simulate dropping in a quarter. [8] Destroy your old high score.

SOURCES 3 4

6

> arcadeathome.com Most of what you need to know and links to most of the rest > mame.net The original emulation software, able to reanimate 2,700+ games > macmame.org MAME for Macs > starroms.com Download licensed game ROMs > hanaho.com Hot Rod Joystick control panel ($100), includes 14 games > wicothesource.com Arcade parts > happcontrols.com Even more arcade parts > hagstromelectronics.com Keyboard encoders

You’ve got a few options for wiring your control panel. The simplest is to buy a prebuilt arcade-quality panel with a keyboard cable that plugs into your PC. Slightly more complex is a keyboard emulator, which has wire inputs for the controls on one end and a keyboard cable on the other. The ultimate DIY solution is to open up an old keyboard and solder wires from the salvaged buttons and joystick to the traces for the keys that you want the PC to think you’re pressing. Keyboards work by scanning a matrix of horizontal and vertical wires with a key at each intersection, so you’ll have to figure out the position of the keys you want to connect to, and then tell MAME which keys represent which commands (instructions included with MAME). One warning: If you make completed circuits on multiple columns and rows at the same time, the keyboard matrix scanner may think some switches are active when they aren’t, or vice versa.

Cooking the controls

MCKIBILLO.COM

Used PC with keyboard

Dabbler

1

5

THE HOMEMADE ARCADE SHOPPING LIST

TECH: Homemade arcade COST: $50 to $800 TIME: 20 to 40 hours

INTEGRATE COURTESY GAME READY INC.

YOU 2.0

At the Intersection of Technology and the Body

I DON’T NEED any reminders that I’m getting older, but after one particularly intense ski day at Jackson Hole last winter, my left knee had the gall to get sore and swell, as if indignant that it was part of a body no longer 18 years old. Fortunately, a friend told me about a unique “cold therapy” machine called Game Ready. About the size of a boombox, Game Ready pumps ice water into sleeves that are wrapped over your knee (or any other body part), then uses a vacuum pump to compress the sleeve, much like a blood-pressure cuff tightens around your arm. The computer-controlled valve system that regulates temperature

GAME READY ACCELERATED RECOVERY SYSTEM

$2,000+; gameready.com TECH Pressurized water-cooled sleeve soothes aches DOES IT WORK? Ohhhh yeah

* Not Steve Casimiro

and pressure is based on the technology in NASA space suits, which Game Ready’s founder helped design. Pressure and cold are half the standard RICE therapy— rest, ice, compress, elevate— for sports aches, and Game Ready blows away a simple ice pack because the usercontrolled pressure and temperature remain constant. More than 130 professional and college sports teams now

use the device, which was introduced in 2002, and rehab centers, trainers and schools are getting on board. The technology is even being used to help multiple sclerosis patients lower their body temperature, reducing symptoms. Of course, at $2,000 (plus the cost of reusable sleeves), you might need an NBA contract to afford one, but you can always bug your gym, trainer or physical therapist to get Game Ready (or wait until the price inevitably comes down). It’s worth the effort: The day after treatment, my swelling was gone and my college years were in sight—impressive considering I’m 42.—STEVE CASIMIRO

H2.0

How 2.0 > Void Your Warranty

HACK

DEPT: Void Your Warranty INVESTIGATOR: Mike Haney

TAKE THE SHACKLES OFF YOUR CELLPHONE

FINDINGS: Cell providers lock your phone for a reason; here are a few reasons to unlock it.

While number portability may have freed your cell digits, your phone is still a ball and chain, locked into one carrier’s service. These subsidy locks keep you from walking away before the provider can recover that big discount you got when you bought the phone. But it doesn’t have to be so. If you have a GSM phone, you can unlock it and switch to any GSM network carrier (the big three are AT&T, Cingular and T-Mobile). You can also take an unlocked phone overseas (most of the world

TECH: Cellphone unlocking COST: Free to $50 TIME: 15 minutes

Dabbler

uses GSM) and use it on a local network to avoid paying for international roaming, or even buy a European phone (they tend to be ahead of us in cell tech) and use it here. Have an old phone lying around? Unlock it and keep it as a spare. The key is the subscriber identity module, or SIM, card, which stores the essential information—carrier, number, contacts—in all GSM phones. So once your phone is unlocked, switching carriers or phones simply means popping in a new SIM (available at any cell

Master

WHAT’S THE FREQUENCY, KENNETH? Cingular and AT&T 850/1900MHz T-Mobile 900/1900MHz European 900/1800MHz U.S tri-band phones 850/900/1900MHz European tri-band phones 900/1800/1900MHz Quad-band “world phones” 850/900/1800/1900MHz

store here or overseas). The phone’s lock is defeated by inputting a special code (see “Unlocking the 3595,” below). For Nokia

UNLOCKING THE 3595 We unlocked a Cingular Nokia 3595 to pop in a prepaid Vodafone SIM from New Zealand. The screen below left is what we saw with the new SIM inserted before unlocking. To get the unlock codes, we posted a request at unlockme.co.uk with the 3595’s serial number and carrier. The next morning, we had two codes: #pw+197824120263746+1#; #pw+807711135262232+7#.

2

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To enter a code, the phone must be on, with no SIM inserted. Our Cingular card was behind the battery.

POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

3

When we finished, a “Restriction Off” message flashed, and when we inserted the Vodafone card, the phone began searching for a signal.

Other phone hacks > Just about every cell has its hacker’s bag of tricks—things like adding custom games and wallpaper, using MP3 snippets as ring tones or even (don’t do this) stealing service. > To figure out what can be done—and how—on yours, try cellphonehacks.com, which has forums for each phone company and provider. If you dig through the cell-geek boasting matches that fill many of the threads, you can usually find some how-to’s for your phone. > I got lucky and found sites dedicated to hacking my Verizon LG VX4400 using a $23 data cable from RadioShack and a free program called BitPim (bitpim.sourceforge.net). So far I’ve used the phone as a modem, removed the Verizon banner, added a shot of Johnny Cash at Folsom Prison to my wallpaper and changed my ring tone to The Jeffersons’ theme . . . probably all child’s play to a hardcore hacker, but it feels like movin’ on up to me.—M.H.

JOHN B. CARNETT

1

Next we punched in the first code, hitting the * key several times to get the p, w and + symbols (don’t ask why; that’s just how it works).

phones, you can find free software at unlockme.co.uk that will calculate your phone’s code, or just post a request on the site’s forums and wait for a friendly hacker to reply. If your phone is from any other manufacturer, check out gsm-software.com, which will e-mail you a code for $10 to $20. A few hard-to-crack models require a data cable that sends the phone a code from software on your computer. Of course, there are a couple of catches: Even within the GSM network, carriers use different frequency sets (see chart, left), so if your phone only supports one band, your coverage area may suffer. Also, special carrier-specific features like picture messaging may not work on an unlocked phone. But hey, every freedom has its price.

How 2.0 > From the Frontier // Procurement

Syrdar ya

International Boundary

42

Kyrgyzstan Toktogul Suu Saktagychy

Kazakstan q

Chirchi

Oblast Capital

Kara-Kol

Naryn

Tashkent

Shardara Bogeni

National Capital

al

Chatk

Chirchiq

Angren

Railroad Road

Jalal-Abad (Dzhala-Abad)

Namangan

0

Ohangaron

Sirdaryo

25

50

75 Kilometers

25

0

75 Miles

50

Andijon iya

zbekistan

ar

Obanbori Qayroqqum

Guliston

rd

Osh Farghona

Sy

Khujand

Konibodom

Jizzakh

Kyzyl-Kyya

Isfara Suluktu

Kyrgyzstan

Uroteppa

Samarqand

Sary-Tash

uu

Kyzyl-S

Dar''yal Zarafsho

n

Panjakent

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China Dar''yal

Surkhob

39

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Tajikistan Dushanbe

Tursunzoda

Orjonikidzeobod Pa

Dar''ya

''y al

Murghob

l Mu

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Taxkorgan

su

Khorugh

mir

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Feyzabad ni

ya

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Pa

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rghon

ni

Norak Dar

Denow

Afghanistan

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Kuna

Gilgi

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Baghlan

36

Gilgit

crumbs led us through a 10-day trek, navigating a 15,000-foot pass to become the first Westerners in 12 years to enter the lovely valleys above the village of Sangvor.—MCKENZIE FUNK

> Japan kicks our ass when it comes to gadgets. Their cellphones are years ahead, their laptops are tiny, their toys so odd you have to lust after them. But many of the best are released here months after their Japanese release, if at all. ¶ Fortunately, a number of sites let you order directly from Tokyo; some will even install an English OS or handle warranty service. ¶ Japanrush.com focuses on supercompact laptops like the 1.8-pound Sony PCGU3. Audiocubes.com sells only high-end music gear, including the $2,500 limited-edition Audio-Technica ATH-L3000 leather headphones, while tokyoflash.com specializes in limited-edition watches. ¶ Chicago-based dynamism.com covers the whole gadget range, from the Samsung Nexio 5-inch wide-screen PDA to Sony’s 4-megapixel digicam with Bluetooth, and even accepts laptop trade-ins.—MIKE HANEY

COURTESY THE JOSH MCKIBLE COLLECTION

legible grid for an entire map from just a few points. Since our maps did have degreesminutes-seconds readings in the corners, we opened the map JPEGs in OziExplorer, which then created for each map a grid that my GPS could read. That allowed me to mark the coordinates of waypoints along our route—river crossings, glaciers, peaks—and download them into the GPS unit. The trail of virtual bread-

Qugon

u

• Procurement Japanese imports

Tajikistan

Shymkent

Am

THE YEMENI, Chechen and Syrian mujahideen who once trekked mountainous Tajikistan are now gone, but still few Western tourists venture into the country’s Pamir Mountains, in part because no one knows where to go. There are no up-to-date guidebooks, and nary a map store. That didn’t stop my friend Lars and me from buying tickets to Tajikistan last summer. Before our departure, in a lonelyplanet.com

$85; oziexplorer.com TECH GPS mapping software LOCATION Tajikistan

75

72 Talas

69

Arys

eryo

TECH SOLUTIONS IN FAR OUT PLACES

OZIEXPLORER

Surk hond

FROM THE FRONTIER

chat room we found the impossible: a complete set of high-res Soviet-era topographic maps for Tajikistan (and 17 other obscure locales), downloadable from UC Berkeley (lib.berkeley.edu/ eart/topo.html). I printed two dozen Pamiri maps at Kinko’s, and smuggled them past border guards at the Dushanbe airport. Still, we had a problem: The maps used Soviet coordinates, so the Western readings on my GPS wouldn’t help us find our location on the maps. A friend at the United Nations in Dushanbe saved the day with a program he had on his PC called OziExplorer, which can extrapolate a GPS-

Dar''y al Ko farnih Dar''ya on l Vakhsh

INTEGRATE

H2.0

GROK

H2.0

TECH SUPPORT

> ATTENTION H2.0 READERS: This is your page, full

of the feedback we get from you at [email protected] and through the forums at popsci.com/h20. ASK A GEEK is your chance to pick the brains of The Geek Chorus—H2.0’s panel of advisers and tech wizards. THE TIP SHEET is a sampling of your best tips, tricks and hacks. YOUR GEAR features the most drool-worthy gadget you’ve bought lately (this month, we’re showing off one of the cool case mods you sent us). Finally, THIS IS BROKEN gives you one of our favorites from Mark Hurst’s site thisisbroken.com.

> The Tip Sheet Game Boy Cable Hack The Game Boy Advance Link Cable shouldn’t connect to an old-school Game Boy without a special adaptor—both have six-pin connectors, but the GBA cable has a little nub that prevents it from plugging into the GB. Solution: Cut off the nub. Do it on both ends and you’ll have a universal link cable for all Game Boys.—Kyle Nelson, Missoula, Mont.

ASK A GEEK: PHILLIP TORRONE

Q: What are RSS feeds and why would I use them?

—Joel Waller, Austin, Minn.

Cleaner Digital Audio Sending digital audio straight from your computer to your stereo adds noise and distortion. Instead, route it through an external processor like Xitel’s $50 Hi-Fi Link. One end plugs into a USB port, the other into RCA jacks on your stereo, and it even comes with 30 feet of audio cable.—H2.0 Staff

Getting All the Ink Out A “low ink” warning from your inkjet printer means the cartridge is 80 percent used. Keep it in till you see “empty”— at that point you’re down to 2 or 3 percent.—H2.0 Staff

YOUR GEAR

If, like me, you obsessively comb dozens of news sites and blogs to get your daily info fix, RSS is a godsend. Instead of actually visiting each site, waiting for your browser to load pages and slogging through ads and graphics, you can breeze through the latest content from all your favorite sites in one text-only window. Here’s how it works: Download a free RSS reader (try newsgator.com for PC or ranchero.com/software/net newswire for Macs), and subscribe to a site’s feed (RSS is a function of XML, so look for a PHILLIP TORRONE is H2.0’s button on the site that says eiall-purpose tech-DIY geek, ther “RSS” or “XML”). Then with credentials that include open your reader to get the a blogging Aibo, a portable most recent headlines and geek gym and a full-time gig as director of product develstory summaries from any site opment for Fallon Worldyou’ve subscribed to. Want wide. Follow Torrone’s latest to read the full text? Just click obsessions at his site, it and your browser opens to flashenabled.com (RSS feed that page. You can even send available), and see RSS feeds to your phone or popsci.com/h20 to meet the rest of The Geek Chorus. PDA to read them on the go.

THIS IS BROKEN

WHEN THE ITUNES MUSIC STORE CENSORS GO TOO FAR. . .

See more examples of things broken at thisisbroken.com. 110

POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

F R O M T O P : T O M E R H A N U K A ; C O U R T E S Y C L I N T O N M A C K AY

IN RESPONSE TO OUR CALL for case mods in the March issue, Clint Mackay submitted his Think Tank: a custom-painted case inspired by a Harley-Davidson fuel tank. It packs a 2.8Ghz Pentium 4, 200GB hard drive, 6-in-1 card reader and AM/FM CD stereo that works even when the computer is off. Mackay now sells built-toorder models starting at $1,500, including monitor and printer. See more at outofthebox computers.com.

A:

FYI

DEPARTMENT OF ODD APPLICATIONS

CORRECTING CORPORATE GROUPTHINK WITH SIMPLE PHYSICS

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POPULAR SCIENCE JUNE 2004

within ferromagnetic materials like iron. When you magnetize iron by introducing an external field, the individual particles all line up. Even after that external field is removed, the particles stay aligned, held there by the cumulative force of their neighbors. Battiston’s application of the model is, well, a little different. He works in complex networks theory, which is the study of interacting systems—from flocks of birds in flight to computers wired through the Internet. To examine the corporate network, Battiston graphed the directors of the Fortune 1000 companies. He started by representing each board member with a

N AT H A N F O X

A reader inquires: I read something recently about physicists who study corporate boards. How is this science? It’s in the method: Inspired by the recent rash of corporate scandals, scientists Stefano Battiston and Gérard Weisbuch of the Ecole Normale Supérieure, in Paris, applied an 80 year-old pillar of statistical physics called the Ising model to big business. The Ising model was developed to explain the orientation of particles

FACTS, ANSWERS, ODDITIES & ENTERTAINMENTS FOR A MONTH OF SCIENCE

FYI point. In a simple world, the graph would look like 1,000 separate islands, each a cluster of points representing the directors who sit on that company’s board. But in reality, directors often hold multiple seats. So, when two individuals sit on more than one board together, Battiston draws a line between them. Those directors create, in networkspeak, an interlock graph. Now we get back to the magnets. Ideally, Battiston says, when a board convenes, all the individuals are unbiased. That’s your piece of iron. But if A and B sit on another board together, they’re more likely to share some opinions, and to try to sway the rest of the board to their side. “From the point of view of the group,” Battiston says, “this is like a small external field acting on the board as a whole.” The Ising model applies here because it is mathematically equivalent to a model that sociologists use to describe herd behavior, a welldocumented phenomenon in which the undecided try to align themselves with the majority. In other words, people follow the consensus the same way particles follow their neighbors. Battiston’s group has even devised a way to measure the force of the aforementioned field. They calculate the force of a lobby based on the topology, or shape, of the interlock graph. So, if A sits with B on an outside board, their interlock graph is a simple straight line. But if B also sits with C on a third company’s board, and C with A, their interlock graph forms a triangle, which generates a stronger field. Granted, a powerful lobby might not be a bad thing. A company run by executives with profligate spending habits could benefit from a frugal lobby. But the reverse is also true: A lobby of free-spending bigwigs might sway their peers. Battiston says that some European companies have expressed interest in his work, but the model has never been tested on an actual board of directors. Perhaps they’d be too frightened of discovering that it actually works.—GREGORY MONE

FYI BOOK OF THE MONTH

A CYBERPUNK SPIN ON CAPTAIN AMERICA Two and a half years after September 11, the attacks still cast a long shadow on world events. Government investigations examine official actions before and after that day, and the bestseller lists are crowded with booklength analyses of the causes and effects. With his new novel, The Zenith Angle, science fiction writer and futurist Bruce Sterling offers a fictional, tech-heavy take on this confusing era, and proves himself a more than suitable guide. The Zenith Angle harks back to his roots as the founder of the cyberpunk zine Cheap Truth, except that he shifts his focus from the future to the recent past. Derek Vandeveer, the story’s hero, undergoes an unlikely transformation from a familiar boomera supergeek into a kick-ass cyberpunk version of Captain America. After watching the towers collapse on television, Vandeveer abandons his startup’s lab, drives cross-country to commune with his Yoda-like grandfather—who imparts his wisdom as a former Skunk Works scientist— and eventually ends up working on network security for U.S. government spooks. The book traces Vandeveer’s moral awakening from happy lab rat to troubled infowarrior protecting America’s digital frontiers. The action accelerates when Vandeveer learns that an immensely expensive infrared spy satellite is under attack—he has to figure out how to destroy a cleverly disguised laser weapon to protect it. Sterling’s sharp prose and easy comfort with the poetry of technolust

THE POPSCI READING LIST For our monthly column on the best science books, as well as notable author Q&As and more, check out: www.popsci.com/books

allow him to move fluidly between military hardware, disaffected exhackers and the dark world of acronym-rich intelligence services. Technical jargon rarely upstages The Zenith Angle’s characters, but Sterling’s not afraid to delve into the details, either. In casual narrative asides, Vandeveer rewrites simulation software for orbital debris, creates a remote-control piloting system for business jets, and builds a highsecurity supercomputer from PCs bought on eBay. Sterling’s book is a bold effort to recapture a disturbing period in recent U.S. history, and it does so effectively. In Vandeveer, Sterling has created a posterboy for post-9/11 America: determined, but also aggressive and confused. At the close of the novel, after a troubling few years, he’s back on his feet but unsure of the way. Just like the rest of us.—ED FINN DEPARTMENT OF ASTRONOMICAL EMERGENCIES

THE KILLER ASTEROID THAT WASN’T Every day, Harvard University’s Minor Planet Center (MPC) posts a list of newly identified asteroids and comets on its Web site. NASA telescopes spot the space rocks as part of the agency’s asteroid survey, but with only a few initial sightings, the range of possible paths for each new asteroid is huge. That’s why MPC astronomers post the data on the Web: They enlist amateurs across the world to search for the asteroids, and the additional sightings allow them to refine each object’s orbital path. One night earlier this year, one of these skygazers noticed something that concerned him: Object AL00667 seemed to be headed for Earth, and it was coming in fast. Here’s the timeline of that near emergency. JANUARY 13 17:15 EST: MPC receives its list of

visible asteroids. Tim Spahr, an MPC astronomer in Cambridge, begins computing potential orbits. 17:50: The data, as usual, is scant: four coordinates per object, for five objects total, generated from 70 minutes of observation. Less information means a greater number of possible orbits. Spahr posts the whole range on MPC’s Web site and heads out to dinner.

FYI 17:59: Reiner Stoss, an amateur astro-

nomer in Germany, informs Yahoo’s Minor Planet List message board that a near-Earth object—an asteroid or comet orbiting in Earth’s neighborhood—named AL00667 “is predicted to become brighter by over 4 magnitudes in just 24 hours . . . and the speed is increasing.” In other words, it’s getting closer, fast. Due to poor visibility, Stoss is unable to search for it. 18:48: Another list member, former NASA Jet Propulsion Lab astronomer Alan Harris, responds, “I can calculate on a desk calculator that this is an impact trajectory.” 19:08: Harris alerts three prominent asteroid researchers: Steve Chesley, a senior scientist at JPL, Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado, and, most important, Don Yeomans, the director of NASA’s NEO program office. Harris notifies them of the possibility that AL00667 could strike within days. 20:30: An agitated Chesley calls the MPC looking for Tim Spahr. MPC director Brian Marsden, working late, answers the phone and asks if he can help while Spahr is in transit. Chesley relays Harris’s findings. 20:55: Marsden isn’t worried, as the uncertainty regarding the orbits is so great, but he agrees to help. He supplies Chesley with MPC’s raw data. 20:57: Marsden sends an e-mail to Peter Birtwhistle, a reliable astronomer in England, requesting observational data on AL00667. 21:01: Although the weather is clear, Birtwhistle responds that his equipment’s setup precludes him from seeing far enough north to spot the asteroid. 21:51: In search of more amateur assistance, Marsden alerts the Astronomical Society of Kansas City. JANUARY 14 0:23: Dick Trentman and Dick

Fredrick, acting on Marsden’s request, respond that even with clear Kansas skies, they can’t find AL00667 anywhere near the predicted Earthimpacting orbit.

FYI

To prevent such panics in the future, Marsden and MPC programmer

FLIRTING WITH DISASTER

For several tense hours this past January, a group of NASA and amateur astronomers frantically searched for asteroid 2004AS1.

Garreth Wilson adjusted their software so that it will alert the astronomer who is posting new asteroid data when one of the potential orbits outlines a collision course. But the real benefit of the events may have been the test of NASA’s amateur astronomy network. Following the initial panic, MPC handled the situation correctly by actively seeking additional sightings from the amateurs.

There’s no official protocol yet for what to do if they had confirmed that the asteroid was headed for Earth— just a telephone chain extending from MPC to Yeomans and NASA NEO chief Lindley Johnson, and eventually on up to administrator Sean O’Keefe and, if necessary, the president. But let’s hope that if the amateurs do spot an incoming asteroid, those phones start ringing quickly.—JOE BROWN

C O U R T E S Y G R E AT S H E F F O R D O B S E R VAT O R Y, U K

2:19: Still concerned, Steve Chesley informs Chapman, Yeomans and Harris that of 819 orbits he calculated, as many as 40 percent predict impact. He also notes that the asteroid appears to be 30 meters wide—small enough so that it would explode high in the atmosphere, but, according to some studies, large enough to cause damage on the ground. 4:30: Chesley and company receive an e-mail from Colorado-based amateur Brian Warner, who, despite an exhaustive search, can’t find AL00667. 15:20: After analyzing a new crop of data, MPC astronomers find that the asteroid, now catalogued as 2004AS1, was 20 million miles away from Earth—far off the impact trajectories. The threat is officially defused.

(CONTINUED FROM PAGE 82)

my apartment. The interior smells good, with its high-grade upholstery. The automobile came into its own in the ’50s, becoming more than a means of transport or a sign of affluence but a fashion statement, an expression of individuality. “This wasn’t about going to Pep Boys and getting a bright yellow neoprene steering wheel cover,” Jeffrey Love, a Los Angeles mechanic who specializes in classic car restoration, tells me over the phone. “It was guys going to the junkyard and buying specific parts off cars”—like headlight rims from a ’53 DeSoto, the grille from a ’50 Mercury, side trim from 24 Chrysler introduced hydraulic power steering in 1951, and by the mid-’50s it was gaining popularity. The ’39 Oldsmobile was first to feature an automatic transmission; in the mid-’50s the option became more common, as automakers tried to woo female drivers. 25 Yoga practice goes back 2,000

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a ’53 Dodge, ’52 Mercury headlight bezels or hubcaps from a ’53 Oldsmobile Fiesta. The Nash has turn signals, which were invented in the ’30s, but no automatic transmission or, alas, power steering.24 And that’s not the only thing that’s missing. “We’re breaking every modern law,” says Shiller, who is president of the Antique Automobile Association of Brooklyn. “No seat belts, terrible fuel emissions.” If we were on the highway, we would get about 20 mpg and hit 70 comfortably; here in the city, we get 10 mpg and lots of envious stares. After the joyride I find myself at a loss. I can’t go to yoga25 or the gym, since only

years, but the modern-day craze that led to designer mats, hip hop soundtracks, and model Christy Turlington in the lotus position on the cover of Time is fairly recent. 26 In 1950, approximately 585 out of every 100,000 people in the U.S. developed heart disease. By 1999, that figure fell to fewer than 268 per

the YMCA was around in 1954 (it turns out, though, that sit-ups and pushups aren’t a bad workout, and they’re cheaper than a gym membership). That evening, unable to order movie tickets online, I arrive an hour early at the Ziegfeld, a glamorous single-screen theater serving New York since 1927, to ensure I get a seat to Cold Mountain. DAY 7:

DIETARY DISTRESS

It’s ironic: Just when heart disease rates began to decline due to a shift toward healthy eating,26 the TV dinner, that enemy of the arteries, made its debut.27

100,000. In the 1950s, life insurance companies, looking for ways to shell out less money, embarked on a campaign to educate American women about the risks of fat and heart disease, and to encourage them to cook more healthful meals. 27 In 1953, Swanson responded to two postwar trends: the lure of time-

saving modern appliances and the fascination with the television. More than 10 million TV dinners were sold in the first year of national distribution. For 98 cents, customers could choose among Salisbury steak, meatloaf and fried chicken. The phenomenon was immortalized in 1987, when a TV dinner tray was placed in the Smithsonian Institution.

As I pick through the frozen-food aisle of my local supermarket, looking for something era-appropriate, I notice that Swanson has introduced a new frozen Hungry Man All Day Breakfast, consisting of eggs, pancakes, sausage, bacon and home fries. It’s 1,030 calories and contains 64 grams of fat (21 of them saturated), 2,090 mg of sodium and 690 mg of cholesterol. That’s 320 percent the amount of fat the USDA says a typical 35year-old man should consume in a day. I return home with a more sensible TV dinner of beef, carrots, potatoes and apple crisp to find that Piper has cooked herself a great looking meal of pan-fried

dumplings and tofu. As I put my lessthan-nourishing-looking food in the oven, I can almost feel my life expectancy go down.28 “It looks worse than airline food,” Piper says. It tastes worse, too, somewhere between sawdust and a freeze-dried leather shoe. DAY 8:

CELLPHONE DREAMS

By day, I’m cool. Piper says she doesn’t remember a time when I was so calm. At night, evidently, I’m not. The tech-stress dreams are getting worse. In one, I work on the ground level of a huge building. A Sprint salesman is going office to office,

28 According to the CDC, in 2001 my life expectancy was 75 years; my fiancée’s, 80. In 1954, I would have been expected to live just 67 years, and she would have made it, on average, to 73. 29 Freud first lectured in the U.S. in 1909; in 1943, U.S. intelligence officers commissioned a psychoanalysis of Adolf Hitler; by the ’50s, the method was used to treat many mental disorders. 30 Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) debuted in the 1940s. Up to 600 volts of electric current were delivered to the brain through electrodes placed on either side of the patient’s head. Patients, who were strapped to a gurney but not given anesthesia or muscle relaxants, often suffered bone fractures from flailing; they experienced severe memory loss as well.

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advertising an amazing new phone with a great plan. But I hesitate—and then when I’m ready, he’s gone. In another, a friend spills water on my cellphone and denies it. In my most frequent dream I dial a friend’s number over and over, but I keep dialing it wrong. Clearly, I need my head examined. I make my way to the Upper West Side to see Dr. Louis Linn, a 90-year-old psychiatrist and psychoanalyst who has been practicing for more than 50 years.29 His head of white hair and his red leather couch are straight out of central shrink casting. I tell the doc my tech deprivation has left me confused and depressed, and ask what the course of treatment for a guy like me would have been in 1954 should I continue to spiral downward. The answer is literally a stunner: electroconvulsive therapy, or shock therapy.30 Americans’ postwar enthusiasm for technology boosted the popularity of shock therapy, Dr. Linn tells me (he was introduced to it while serving in WWII). But shock therapy was misused during

its heyday—administered for such unlikely conditions as psoriasis and homosexuality—and fell from favor in the 1960s. (Ken Kesey’s 1962 satire on the treatment of mental illness, One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest, helped galvanize anti-shock-therapy sentiment.) More recently, though, shock therapy has undergone a renaissance, and is now considered a legitimate last-resort treatment for severe depression that does not respond to other, less drastic, methods. Today’s patients are medicated beforehand to prevent injury, and they undergo electric pulses that are shorter and directed only at the right side of the brain, to avoid damaging the language and memory centers that reside in the left hemisphere. Nevertheless, memory loss remains a troubling side effect. Noting my squeamish reaction to the notion of shock therapy, Dr. Linn informs me that medications were also available

for psychiatric disorders in the 1950s: lithium, thorazine and Elavil among them. While these drugs are still prescribed, they’ve taken a backseat to Prozac, Zoloft, Paxil and their ilk:31 Last year, Americans filled more than 142 million prescriptions for these new antidepressants, known as SSRIs. Alas, SSRIs aren't the silver bullet. They can take weeks to kick in, and their side effects, like loss of libido, aren’t trivial. But just as in ’54, when shock therapy was wildly overused, SSRIs are being prescribed at what some say is an irresponsible rate. That makes me queasy too. Suddenly I decide I feel a lot better. Gotta run. DAY 9:

THIS IS NOT A STICKUP!

The winter’s big freeze is upon me when I find myself miles from home and out of money, with no way of getting more so I can take the subway home. I have a

31 The first selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, Prozac, debuted in 1988. SSRIs have fewer harsh side effects than their predecessors, so offer the possibility of depression relief for more people.

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friend in the neighborhood I can scam a couple of bucks from, but without my Palm I don’t know her address. After scouring the streets for a working pay phone (an increasingly rare commodity), I put in my last quarter—and get a busy signal. Of course the phone eats my quarter. I feel sorry for people who still have to use these things on a regular basis, and recall the comment famously attributed to William Gibson: “The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” Then a surprisingly novel idea strikes: I’ll go to the bank—not the ATM foyer but the bank itself. Approaching the counter, I explain to a cheery-looking teller named Diane that I need cash. She asks me to swipe my card. I don’t have my card with me, I say. “Well, then how can we know how much money you have?” she asks, with what she clearly regards as impeccable logic. “Doesn’t the bank have any other way to access my account?” I counter. “What you’re doing is making my job

harder,” grumbles Diane, less cheery. Despite these inconveniences, there are times when I feel liberated from a world in which you can download Bubba Sparxxx or Eminem ring tones for under $1; where Americans can now drop thousands of dollars on kidney dialysis—for their pets; and which includes the celebrity death pool site, Youbettheirlife.com (Motto: You can’t cheat death, but you can profit from it). DAY 10:

MY GIRL + QUIET = BLISS

On the last night of my ’50s show, Piper and I stay in and nest. We are reading— something I have been doing a lot more of—while David Garland’s Saturday night public radio show, Spinning on Air, plays in the background. I love these quiet, seemingly hard-to-find moments at home. The host queues up a recording by a little-known artist named Connie Converse whose name yields exactly zero results if you Google her. As Garland’s guest Gene Deitch explains, Converse sang songs “in a way that they just melted your heart . . . but was way ahead of her time.” Garland spins a wistful and romantic song that Converse wrote herself, and that was recorded in Deitch’s living room in 1954. “With the grass so dark and tall,” Converse croons, “we are lost past recall.”32 But not I. In just 12 hours, I’ll be returning to the real world—a place where my cellphone makes me jump, SportsCenter dominates my living room, 432 e-mails demand my reply and my mom knows how to find me. Once again I’ll be able to enjoy Showtime’s The L Word on demand—along with strong, overpriced coffee. For now, though, I remain curled up with my girl, two cats at our feet, AM/FM radio softly illuminated, phone unplugged. For a few more hours it is 1954. And it’s a very good year. ■ Larry Smith was the executive editor of Yahoo Internet Life until it folded in 2002. He writes for ESPN: The Magazine, Salon.com and Men’s Health. Thanks to his recent low-tech interlude, he has curtailed his obsession with checking gawker.com. 32 Check out chanteuse Connie Converse’s tune at wnyc.org/shows/ spinning/episodes/01092004. It’s lovely.

(CONTINUED FROM PAGE 99)

to score their first Dreamliner sales as early as this summer. “When we launch the 7E7,” says Randy Baseler, Boeing’s vice president for marketing, “the real question is who’s going to sign up for an A330-200.” Boeing intends the Dreamliner to lift off in 2007 and enter service the following year. The assembly line will be located in Everett, where Boeing builds the 777, 767 and 747, but most of the work will be done elsewhere. Specially modified 747s, with bulging upper bodies and side-hinged tails, will bring fully assembled wing and body pieces into Everett from suppliers around the world: The entire wing, for example, will be built in Japan. The assembly line will move at double-quick time. It may take as little as three days to click a 7E7 together. If Airbus officials are worried, they conceal it well. When asked whether the company intends to launch a competing aircraft, vice president for market forecasts Adam Brown replies: “Don’t hold your breath. We don’t see an urgent need to act in response to the 7E7.” For one thing, Brown contends, Airbus doesn’t buy Boeing’s vision of a point-to-point future. The clash of views became very apparent at the Dubai air show this past December. There, Boeing issued a forecast showing that Middle Eastern airlines would need only 43 A380-size airplanes in the next 20 years. Boeing’s roster of failed aircraft: popsci.com/exclusive

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This was news to Emirates Airline, the region’s star business, which alone has already ordered 43 of the new giants. “We’re not saying Emirates is wrong,” Boeing’s Baseler says cautiously. “We have different views and that’s okay.” Brown’s caustic reply: “Anyone who says that is living in a parallel universe.” Brown also points out that fuel is just part of an airline’s total operating costs, and modern airplanes are already so efficient that fuel represents less than one-fifth of the total. Result: Even if the 7E7 beats the A330 on fuel burn by 20 percent, that’s equivalent to just 4 percent of operating costs. Also, the baseline version of the 7E7 is smaller than the A330, which is bad for the bottom line because basic operating costs remain stable (for example, all airplanes have two pilots, regardless of size). “Crank all those numbers in, and you’ve got a 1.8 percent difference in cash operating cost,” says Brown. “That’s not enough to set the world on fire.” There’s just one point on which Airbus and Boeing agree: They can’t both be right. And observers like Merrill Lynch’s Callan don’t think Boeing has much choice but to stay its course. “If they come back with another paper product,” he says, referring to an airplane like the Sonic Cruiser that never gets beyond the design stage, “the suppliers are going to say, ‘You can’t waste our time anymore. If you can’t take the risk, forget it.’” If Boeing doesn’t launch the 7E7, says Callan, “they’re done.” ■ Bill Sweetman is a POPULAR SCIENCE contributing editor.

LOOKING BACK

OCTOBER 1919 FROM THE POPULAR SCIENCE ARCHIVES

HAIL FIGHTERS AND THEIR STRANGE DEVICES By 1919, hail cannons had been discredited—but people intent on changing the weather refuse to give them up. In the 1890s, grape growers in Europe erected thousands of so-called hail cannons near their vineyards. The mouths of the guns were fitted with sheet-iron funnels; farmers loaded them with gunpowder (but no projectiles) and fired into an approaching storm. Theory held that excess cloud moisture condensed around the smoke particles, forming rain instead of crop-damaging hail. But after devastating hailstorms in 1902 and 1903, most hail cannons were dismantled, and scientists pronounced them worthless. Some ideas, though, refuse to die. Today hail-averse folks hurl sound waves at storms with acetylene-fired cannons, hoping the noise will prevent hail. Says Roelof Bruintjes of the National Center for Atmospheric Research: “There is no scientific basis to it.”—MARTHA HARBISON

Other stories from the October 1919 issue:

CUTTING DOWN AIR RESISTANCE In 1917, Glenn Curtiss built the largest wind tunnel in the United States—7 feet in diameter—in Garden City, Long Island (above). A 400-horsepower motor drove a propeller, which generated wind speeds of 100 mph.

DECREASE YOUR WAISTLINE— INCREASE YOUR LIFELINE Encased in a hybrid Exercycle-sweatbox, head alone protruding, the user burned calories while enjoying the benefits of a “Turkish, Roman and electro-therapeutic bath.”

STILL ANOTHER MOUSETRAP TO ADD TO YOUR COLLECTION A Mississippi inventor crafted yet another better mousetrap: When an unwary rodent strayed too far along a wooden plank, the board flipped, dumping the creature into a bucket of water. Photocopy Permission Permission is granted by Popular Science® for libraries and others registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) to photocopy articles in this issue for the flat fee of $1 per copy of each article or any part of an article. Send correspondence and payment to CCC (21 Congress St., Salem MA 01970); specify CCC code 0161-7370/85/$1.00—0.00. Copying done for other than personal or reference use without the written permission of Popular Science® is prohibited. Address requests for permission on bulk orders to Time4 Media, Inc., 2 Park Ave., New York NY 10016 for foreign requests. For domestic requests, write or call Reprint Management Services Inc., 1811 Olde Homestead La., Lancaster PA 17601; 717-399-1900, ext. 109; www.reprintbuyer.com (FOR ARTICLE REPRINTS ONLY). Popular Science® is a registered trademark of Time4 Media, Inc. Occasionally, we make our subscriber list available to carefully screened companies that offer products and services we believe would interest our readers. If you do not want to receive these offers and/or information, please advise us at P.O. Box 51286, Boulder CO 80322-1286. POPULAR SCIENCE Business and Executive Offices: 2 Park Ave., New York NY 10016. Editorial Offices: Address contributions to Popular Science, Editorial Dept., 2 Park Ave., New York NY 10016. We are not responsible for loss of unsolicited materials. They will not be returned unless accompanied by return postage. Microfilm editions are available from Xerox University Microfilms Serial Bid Coordinator, 300 N. Zeeb Rd., Ann Arbor MI 48106. Subscription Inquiries: Send new or renewal subscriptions or change of address (send both new and old addresses) to Popular Science, Box 62456, Tampa FL 33662-4568. Allow six to eight weeks for change of address. If you have a subscription problem, please write to the above address. Subscriptions: U.S. and its possessions, 1 year $19.95; 2 years $26.95; 3 years $32.95. For Canada, add $10 per year (includes GST). For foreign destinations, add $30 per year. Subscriptions processed electronically. Subscribers: If the Post Office alerts us that your magazine is undeliverable, we have no further obligation unless we receive a corrected address within two years. Postmaster: Send change of address notices to Popular Science, Box 60001, Tampa FL 33660-0001. Popular Science entered as periodical postage paid at New York NY and additional mailing offices. Popular Science new Canada Post Publications Mail Agreement No. 40110178. Return undeliverable Canada addresses to: Postal Stn A, PO Box 4015, Toronto, ON, M5W 2T2 GST # R-122988066. Popular Science (ISSN 0161-7370) is published monthly by Time4 Media, 2 Park Ave., New York NY 10016. Printed in U.S.A. © 2004 Time4 Media, Inc.

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