Human Security: From Concept to Practice : Case Studies from Northeast India and Orissa 9814324892, 9789814324892

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Human Security: From Concept to Practice

Case Studies from Northeast India and Orissa

This book is a project of the Asian Dialogue Society

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World Scientific Series on Human Security

ISSN: 2010-3409

Series Editor: Amitav Acharya (American University, USA)

Published: Vol. 1

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Human Security: From Concept to Practice Case Studies from Northeast India and Orissa edited by Amitav Acharya (American University, USA), Subrat K Singhdeo (Madhyam Foundation, India) & M Rajaretnam (Asian Dialogue Society, Singapore)

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World Scientific Series on

HUMAN SECURITY

Volume 1

Human Security: From Concept to Practice

Case Studies from Northeast India and Orissa

Editors

Amitav Acharya American University, USA

Subrat K Singhdeo Madhyam Foundation, India

M Rajaretnam

Asian Dialogue Society, Singapore

World Scientific NEW JERSEY

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LONDON

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SINGAPORE

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BEIJING

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SHANGHAI

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HONG KONG

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TA I P E I

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CHENNAI

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Published by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore 596224 USA office: 27 Warren Street, Suite 401-402, Hackensack, NJ 07601 UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

This book is a project of the Asian Dialogue Society.

World Scientific Series on Human Security — Vol. 1 HUMAN SECURITY: FROM CONCEPT TO PRACTICE Case Studies from Northeast India and Orissa Copyright © 2011 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher.

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ISBN-13 978-981-4324-89-2 ISBN-10 981-4324-89-2

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Foreword Surin Pitsuwan Secretary-General, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

The concept of human security was developed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1994. The Commission on Human Security, co-chaired by Dr. Sadako Ogata and Professor Amartya Sen, developed this concept further, and offered proposals to facilitate the wider dissemination of the concept to the international community at large. Now, the Asian Dialogue Society — with generous support from The Sasakawa Peace Foundation of Japan, and working closely with think tanks and non-governmental organizations in India — has completed an ambitious study that takes the idea of human security to the next stage in its development. Appropriately entitled Human Security: From Concept to Practice, this landmark book introduces, for the first time, three very important tools that will be indispensable for policymakers and scholars alike as they consider how best to realize the idea of human security in the practical domain of governance. These three tools are (1) a human security governance index and ranking, (2) human security mapping in conflict zones and (3) human security impact assessment. Each of these tools offers a methodology and practical guidance to policymakers in developing programs that advance sustainable economic development

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with social justice, and that protect the security, safety and dignity of individuals from challenges in an era of rapid globalization. For example, the human security governance index will complement the UNDP’s famed Human Development Index by focusing on issues and developing indicators that are more specific to the notion of human security. The human security impact assessment template and methodology developed in this book will help national governments as well as international investors and donors to devise new ways of anticipating the social and political consequences of large-scale investment and infrastructure projects, thus mitigating social protests and political conflicts which often lurk beneath such projects. Human security mapping in conflict zones will enable researchers and policymakers to more accurately measure the scale of violence in conflict zones and the human costs of such conflicts, especially internal conflicts that often act as a breeding ground for insurgency and terrorism. The relevance of human security is growing, as globalization presents Asia and the world with new and ever-more powerful challenges. Not only do wars and internal conflicts persist, but they also claim increasingly higher civilian casualties. Despite the impressive achievements made by Asian countries in fostering economic growth, poverty, inequality and social injustice remain major challenges in many countries. There is a vicious cycle between conflict and underdevelopment: while underdevelopment and economic injustice act as root causes of violence, chronic violence reduces the ability of states to promote economic development and reduce inequality. The case studies in this book, from Northeast India and the state of Orissa, are microcosms of this cycle. Although this book deals with case studies from India, the concepts and methodologies it presents will be very useful to other parts of Asia and the world. The ASEAN countries, India’s eastern neighbors, have made impressive economic strides in recent decades; however, they also face many threats to human security, such as internal conflict, insurgency, economic crises, pandemics, environmental degradation, people smuggling, etc. — threats that respect no national or subregional boundaries. Addressing such challenges to human security is, therefore, an important challenge to ASEAN. As

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policymakers and non-governmental organizations in the ASEAN region confront these challenges, the tools and lessons offered in this book will be useful and relevant to them. This book is thus a milestone in the wider application of human security in the development and international relations of South Asia, ASEAN and the world.

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Foreword Sadako Ogata President, Japan International Cooperation Agency

The concept of human security has come a long way since first gaining international attention with the publication of the 1994 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report. The relevance of the concept is now widely recognized. We observe a broad range of activities to realize the human security concept not only by the United Nations agencies but also by governments, non-governmental organizations and international and regional organizations. Research institutes and universities have also played a vital role in advocating and further developing the concept. I believe that this book, which explores and suggests new practical applications of the concept, will contribute to enhancing all of these efforts. As shown in the case studies of Northeast India and Orissa presented in this book, the threats people confront are indeed complicated and diversified in the complexity of historical, political, social and cultural backgrounds. In 2001–2003, as the co-chair of the Commission on Human Security, whose mandate is to formulate the concept of human security as an operational tool for policy formulation and implementation, I organized and attended public hearings, consultations and seminars across the world to examine a broad range of related issues and situations. Asking people in the United States about their concept of threats, their answer — fresh from the memories of September 11, 2001 — was terrorism. On the other hand, for ix

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the people in South Africa, their primary concern was related to the availability of basic needs of life such as health care, education and access to food and water. In Turkmenistan, we noticed that people in Central Asia were calling for a renewed coverage of state services and national identity; they were suffering from the confusion brought by the transition to a market economy, a democratic political system, and use of their traditional local language following independence from the USSR. In the last 30 years, the Asian economy has grown tremendously in speed and scale — more than in any other region. In spite of such advancement, however, there are still elements of fragility. Population increase and industrialization have caused extreme environmental degradation. The disparity between the rich and the poor, particularly in relation to the urban and rural divide, has grown. About 40% of the world’s population who live in poverty are in Asia, and one third of the population of Asian cities live in slums or squatter areas. It is recalled that during the 1997–1998 Asian economic crisis, the thenPrime Minister of Japan, Keizo Obuchi, suggested that economic progress was inextricably linked with stable social conditions and proposed the concept of “human security” as a way to provide social safety nets for vulnerable populations. Since then, new safety nets, governing structures and systems have been developed to cover the well-being of the widest range of people. The concept of human security, with its focus on the security and prosperity of human beings, can address a variety of threats currently faced by the rapidly globalizing world. It takes a more inclusive and holistic approach, bringing together actions relating to all areas of human well-being, such as education, health, agriculture and security. In pursuing the realization of human security, the Commission on Human Security has proposed a framework for action based on the protection and empowerment of people. The more traditional “topdown” approach to governance, by which laws and public institutions are expected to protect the basic rights and freedom of people, is to be complemented by a new “bottom-up” approach that empowers people through education, information and provision of social safety measures. The two approaches should mutually reinforce each other

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and, by solving conflicts and ensuring their security, enable people to better manage their lives. This book offers tools for measuring human security in terms of a governance index, impact assessment, and mapping in conflict zones. It indicates helpful guidance to enhance inclusive and holistic approaches to attain human security. It provides a useful reference, particularly for people involved in the policymaking, planning and operations of human well-being projects. I hope that all endeavors to implement human security will be strengthened by the lessons and recommendations contained in this book.

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Preface

There is little doubt that many of the security threats facing the world in the 21st century revolve around issues such as poverty, underdevelopment, inequality, environmental degradation, climate change, pandemics, illegal migration, people smuggling, drug trafficking and conflicts arising from poor governance leading to state failure. While these threats are not new, in an era of advancing globalization, they are increasingly transnational and interlinked in nature. Moreover, these threats directly and deeply affect the safety and well-being of people, even when the system of states that comprise the contemporary international order may remain superficially stable. The international community therefore needs to rethink the concept of what security means and how best to realize it. A comprehensive peoplecentric understanding of security is warranted, as a more appropriate framework of reference and action for today’s world than the traditional notion of national security. The idea of human security, which stresses security for the people and their core institutions, is challenging to both scholars and practitioners. For scholars, the challenge is to develop this concept in a broad and meaningful manner so that it has appeal beyond the narrow academic community and becomes a tool for advancing the safety and well-being of individuals, states and the international community. The concept is still relatively new; and it needs to be expanded, explored, debated and disseminated as widely as possible so that it becomes permanently enshrined in the lexicon of academic disciplines including governance studies, security studies and development studies. While most existing studies have dealt with the concept at a xiii

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theoretical or conceptual level, it is important now to apply it and examine its relevance with the help of case studies at local, national and international levels. For practitioners, including governments, civil society and media, the challenge is one of drawing upon the normative potential of the human security concept and finding the space and resources for implementing this concept into concrete policy action. Policymakers may find the concept appealing as a slogan, but in the absence of implementation mechanisms, human security will remain a pipe dream. This book on human security — and the series in general — is aimed at meeting these challenges. We hope to bring new and innovative research that incorporates theoretical insights into policy action and offers practical suggestions to advance human security. Using case studies of human security challenges and responses, we will highlight issues of governance that are central to the management of human security. We hope that the series will contribute to the promotion of human security in Asia and the world, as a new paradigm for advancing the security and welfare of people in the global village of the 21st century. Amitav Acharya Series Editor

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Acknowledgments

This book was the product of a generous grant from The Sasakawa Peace Foundation of Japan to the Asian Dialogue Society. His Excellency Surin Pitsuwan, Secretary-General of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and a member of the Commission on Human Security, has been a central inspiration behind this project. We also thank the various research centers and individuals in India who participated in the project, including the Madhyam Foundation in Bhubaneswar, Orissa; the Omeo Kumar Das Institute of Social Change and Development in Guwahati, Assam; the Centre for Humanistic Development in Guwahati, Assam; and the Center for Health and Human Security (headed by Dr. L. K. Mishra and comprising a team of nearly 20 doctors) in Cuttack, Orissa, which itself was an offshoot of this project. Sanjoy Hazarika, one of the leading experts on the Northeast Indian region, and Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh, a world-renowned authority on human security, offered invaluable advice and guidance during different stages of the project. Last but not least, we thank the editors at World Scientific Publishing, Sandhya Venkatesh and Wanda Tan, for expertly managing the publication of this book.

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Contents

Foreword by Surin Pitsuwan

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Foreword by Sadako Ogata

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Preface

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Acknowledgments

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List of Contributors

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Introduction: Human Security from Concept to Practice Amitav Acharya, Subrat Kumar Singhdeo and M. Rajaretnam

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Chapter 1

Constructing a Human Security Governance Index for Northeast India Kalyan Das

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Chapter 2

Human Security Mapping in Conflict Zones: The Case of Northeast India Nani G. Mahanta

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Chapter 3

Conflict and Development in the Context of Human Security in Northeast India Dilip Sarma, Madhurjya Prasad Bezbaruah, Geeta Gudihal and Nayan Jyoti Bhuyan

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Chapter 4

A Human Security Index for Orissa, India Subrat Kumar Singhdeo and Manoranjan Mishra

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Chapter 5

Human Security Impact Assessment (HSIA): A Suggested Methodology Biswaraj Patnaik

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Chapter 6

People’s Perception of Human Security Threats: A Survey of Three Naxal-Affected Districts in Orissa, India Subrat Kumar Singhdeo

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Index

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Amitav Acharya is a Professor of International Relations at the School of International Service, American University. He is also the Chair of the American University’s ASEAN Studies Center. His previous appointments include Professor of Global Governance and Director of the Centre for Governance and International Affairs at the University of Bristol, U.K.; Professor of International Relations at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Professor of Political Science at York University, Canada; and Fellow of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, USA. His most recent book is Whose Ideas Matter: Agency and Power in Asian Regionalism (Cornell University Press, 2009). He has published in journals such as International Organization, International Security, World Politics and International Studies Quarterly. Madhurjya Prasad Bezbaruah is a Professor in the Department of Economics at Gauhati University, Assam, India. He obtained his Master’s degree from the Delhi School of Economics, and his Ph.D. from Gauhati University. He is also the Chairperson of the Centre for Humanistic Development in Guwahati, with his expertise being in quantitative analysis. Dr. Bezbaruah has been involved in major research projects dealing with, for example, the development of a strategy for economic development in Karbi Anglong, the development of a perspective plan for the rural development of Assam, and an investigation of the problems and prospects of growth in Indo–Myanmar cross-border trade as well as its socio-economic consequences for Northeast India. xix

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Nayan Jyoti Bhuyan is a journalist and research associate for the Centre for Humanistic Development, Guwahati, India. He is primarily responsible for the retrieval of archival data for studies on human security. Kalyan Das is an Associate Professor at the Omeo Kumar Das Institute of Social Change and Development, Guwahati, India. For his Ph.D. thesis at the Centre for the Study of Regional Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, Dr. Das worked on the issues and application of flexible specialization in a few vibrant industrial clusters of India. His present research interests include the labor market and livelihood issues. Dr. Das is involved in a number of research projects on Northeast India, and has contributed articles in national and international journals and edited books. He has previously received fellowships from Oxfam Great Britain to study the effects of global trade in the handloom sector of Assam, and from the International Centre for Ethnic Studies, Kandy, Sri Lanka, to study the challenges faced by the tea plantation economy in this liberalized environment. As a grantee of the South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics, Dr. Das is currently working on damage valuation of flood-induced sand deposition in paddy fields in Assam. Geeta Gudihal is a socio-legal analyst at the Centre for Humanistic Development, Guwahati, India, and leads all research and advocacy programs undertaken by the organization. She has a Ph.D. in Law (Human Rights) from Osmania University, Hyderabad. She was previously a faculty member of the Post Graduate College of Law, Osmania University; and was also an associate fellow with the Centre for Northeast India, South and South East Asia Studies (CENISEAS) and the Omeo Kumar Das Institute of Social Change and Development in Guwahati. Dr. Gudihal has presented papers on migration and crime, as well as on internally displaced persons, in national and international fora. She was also the director and scriptwriter for a film on internally displaced persons in the relief camps of western Assam.

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Nani G. Mahanta is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Gauhati University, Assam, India. Dr. Mahanta received his doctorate from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, with his thesis entitled “State, Identity and Violence: The case of ULFA”. His research interests include issues of peace and conflict resolution, human development and security, and ethnicity and identity politics in the context of Northeast India and South Asia. Dr. Mahanta was a former Rotary World Peace Fellow at the University of California, Berkeley (2002–2004); and was also a visiting fellow at the International Peace Research Institute (PRIO), Oslo, Norway. He has recently completed a book, Confronting the State: Politics of Marginality and Violence. He has published widely in various journals, in addition to contributing 19 chapters in various edited volumes. Manoranjan Mishra is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography and Natural Resource Management at Sikkim University, India. With a Ph.D. from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, he previously taught at Kabul University, Afghanistan under a joint United Nations–Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Research Center mission. He specializes in areas of coastal management, climate change, remote sensing and geographic information systems. Dr. Mishra has published a number of articles in the Journal of Geomatics (India) and the Asian Journal of Environment and Disaster Management. Biswaraj Patnaik is a freelance non-profit-sector professional, trainer, filmmaker, columnist, television commentator and author. He also shares soft skills with corporate and state officials, mostly in commonsense management domains. He is associated with the Madhyam Foundation as a consultant, and with several other agencies as a core member or advisor. M. Rajaretnam is the Special Advisor to the ASEAN SecretaryGeneral on Community Building and Outreach. He is also an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; and a core member of the proposed Institute on Disability and Public Policy that will serve the ASEAN region. Prior to this, he was the Director and

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Chief Executive of the International Centre Goa, India; and was also a Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore. His achievements include, among others, establishing the Information and Resource Center (a private think tank and consultancy firm focused on Asia-Pacific affairs) in 1985, and convening the Asian Dialogue Society (which is committed to the pan-Asian idea of “building a better Asia”) in 2003. With an early focus on Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Myanmar, he has expanded his work over the last decade to include Central and South Asia, and has worked on issues ranging from the media and disabilities to human security in Northeast India. His primary activities are directed toward the building of a greater Asian community. Dilip Sarma, formerly an economist with the State Bank of Hyderabad, is a founding member and current Director of the Centre for Humanistic Development, Guwahati, India. He is the principal researcher/project director for all research studies undertaken by the organization, and his expertise is in research using participatory research methodologies. He holds a Master’s degree in Economics from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi; and is pursuing a Ph.D. in Human Security from Dibrugarh University, Assam. He is known for his extensive grassroots contacts and deep understanding of Northeast India, and is a consultant for several development projects initiated by international and national bodies. Subrat Kumar Singhdeo is the Founder and Executive Director of Madhyam Foundation, Bhubaneswar, Orissa, India. He received his Master’s degree in Sociology from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Prior to setting up the Madhyam Foundation, Mr. Singhdeo was the CEO of Rashtriya Gramin Vikas Nidhi, a national-level funding agency sponsored by central government financial institutions (such as the Industrial Finance Corporation of India, the Industrial Development Bank of India, and the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development) in Guwahati. He has executed more than 60 consulting assignments for national and international agencies such as the Ford Foundation, India Development Service (USA), Novib, CARE, MISEREOR, Lutheran World Relief, Catholic Relief

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Services, Oxfam, ActionAid, Terre des Hommes (Geneva), Stichting Kinderpostzegels Nederland, Concern Worldwide, Sir Dorabji Tata Trust and Sa-Dhan. His core competencies are in the areas of microfinance and livelihood generation, study, action research, mentoring, networking and capacity building. He has 25 years of experience in the development sector across India. Mr. Singhdeo has implemented a number of development projects in many Naxalite-affected districts of Orissa, in collaboration with community-based organizations. In connection with his work, he has visited many countries including the USA, the Netherlands, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Bangladesh, Thailand and Nepal.

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Introduction: Human Security from Concept to Practice Amitav Acharya, Subrat Kumar Singhdeo and M. Rajaretnam

The origins of the idea of “human security” can be related (if not traced back) to the growing dissatisfaction with the prevailing notion of development and security in the 1960s–1980s. With the end of the Cold War, calls for new thinking in security matters grew rapidly. In 1994, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), through its Human Development Report, sought, for the first time, to broaden the traditional notion of security focused on military balances and capabilities to include economic security, food security, health security, environmental security, personal security, community security and political security. The second important intervention on human security was that of the Canadian government and various Canadian academics, led by Lloyd Axworthy, Foreign Minister of Canada (1996–2000), who spearheaded the Middle Powers Initiative. The Canadian approach concentrated on the goal of “freedom from fear”, calling for the safety of people from both violent and nonviolent threats. The broadest category of definition of human security adds “a life of dignity” to freedom from want and freedom from fear. Human security, thus, seems to appear as an endless debate between its proponents and critics and even among its advocates, who have not agreed on a single unified definition. What is most relevant is not how new human security is, but rather what makes it a new 1

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concept in both the theoretical and practical realms, considering possible policy perspectives and implications. By designating the individual, rather than the state, as the “referent object of security”, human security is emerging as a framework that can serve as a means to evaluate threats, foresee crises, analyze the causes of discord and propose solutions entailing a redistribution of responsibilities. An ongoing debate in the academic world over the utility of human security concerns the feasibility of its measurement. Human security, like human development, varies widely along regional lines and therefore cannot be understood or applied, let alone politicized, in the same way across all regions. Regional approaches to human security were launched by a series of UNESCO studies for Arab states (2005), Latin America and the Caribbean (2005), East Asia (2004) and Central Asia (2006). Thus, it would be interesting to examine how threats are connected at the local, national, regional and global levels. In view of this, an attempt has been made through this study to develop a set of human security indicators in the context of a state like Orissa, located on the eastern coast of India. Against this backdrop, the Asian Dialogue Society, with support from The Sasakawa Peace Foundation, developed a two-year human security project for India whose major objective was to develop specific tools that would enable policymakers to address human security challenges. The first year of the project, 2007–2008, was undertaken in India’s northeast region, which has seen a spiral of both conflict and underdevelopment for decades. The second phase of the project, undertaken during 2008–2009, looked at Orissa, one of the poorest states of India, where there has been a growing Naxalite insurgency. Together, these two case studies offered a unique opportunity to explore the nexus between conflict and development as well as the intriguing relationship between freedom from fear and freedom from want, the two core elements of the human security paradigm. Our project has three distinct aspects which differentiate it from other works on human security. First, we have developed a human security governance index that measures both challenges to human

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security and responses to human insecurity. While the UNDP’s Human Development Report has covered countries and there has been a growing trend towards human development reports at the subnational (state or provincial) level, we do not yet have tools for comparing states in a regional context (within sovereign states) or at the district level. Our project makes an attempt to develop such an index and ranking system, thereby increasing the usefulness of human security as a policy tool. It is our hope that policymakers at national, state and district levels will find the index useful in prioritizing their responses to human security challenges and channeling development assistance from outside. A second aspect of our project is the development of a mapping tool that can be applied to assess the state of human security in conflict zones. While such tools exist for other regions of the world, and more broadly covering entire continents or on a global scale, we do not have such mapping for the long-standing conflicts in Northeast India. Our project provides a comprehensive assessment of the human costs of the Northeast India conflicts, and in the process offers a framework that may have applicability for other conflicts. Third, our project seeks to develop a human security impact assessment (HSIA) methodology. The usefulness of such a tool is selfevident. While it has become commonplace to do environmental impact assessment (EIA) for investment, industrial or infrastructural projects, HSIA is of a much broader scope than EIA because the former takes into account long-term local political and social factors that may affect the success or failure of a project designed to improve human security. For example, it helps us to understand local political resistance to large industrial or infrastructural projects which have an obvious potential to benefit the local population. We hope that the ideas and methodology suggested in our studies will be of benefit to governments, donor agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) before they design development projects, so that obstacles to the implementation of these projects can be minimized and their potential to promote long-term human security and human development can be fully realized.

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The Northeast India Project A large section of people in India’s northeast region now live in a web of insecurities, conditions very often not created by them. Delving deeper into the causes, one could ascertain that this is in fact largely due to the failure of the state. The most apparent indicators of insecurity for human beings are poverty and unemployment, for which the fallout is huge. To ensure human security, the approach lies in developing human capital: there should be no school dropouts and ample scope for skill enhancement, the state and society should guarantee a congenial environment and ensure good governance, people should have equitable access to jobs and markets and sustainable job opportunities, and there should be no depletion of social capital. Since Indian independence, the seven states comprising the northeast region of India have undergone spells of crisis periods one after the other, but their nature and dimensionalities have yet to be properly understood and addressed. At the surface level, people tend to hold the militants and insurgents responsible for the region’s backwardness. However, many hidden elements are often ignored, such as deficient infrastructure, limited and constrained access to opportunities, and governance failure. All of these require a long-term development strategy in order to convert the resources of the region productively. They should also ideally reflect an increased sense of security in the social, economic, political, environmental and other relevant spheres. Against this backdrop, it is important to index the status of human security and gauge the capacity of the state’s norms and institutions to deal with the threats of insecurities. The study is based on 14 indicators — poverty, rural youth unemployment, school dropouts, infant mortality, morbidity, crimes against children, crimes against women, incidences of corruption, encroachment of forest area, nonadoption of the right policies, gap between budgeted and actual spending in social sectors, pending cases in courts, occurrence of incidences of violence and presence of security personnel — which form a composite index of human insecurity. The index ranks the states according to their level of insecurity within the region as well as in the

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context of the country. The indicators are further divided into the three categories of development, threat and governance, and the states are then ranked accordingly. For rational ranking, factor analysis is employed, which provides weights to the indicators based on their dispersion in the data matrix. Certain factors (insecurity of women and children, unemployment, pending cases in courts, poverty and encroachment of forest) rank Tripura as the most insecure state for human beings in the region, followed by the states of Assam and Manipur. In the context of development insecurity, however, Assam ranks first in the region, followed by Tripura and Nagaland. Threat insecurity is perceived to be highest in the state of Tripura, followed by Manipur and Nagaland. The indicators of governance insecurity show that Meghalaya is the most poorly governed state in the region, followed by Manipur and Assam. Including the country average in the ranking, it is reflected that overall the country ranks higher in the insecurity index than most Northeast Indian states, and that governance indicators rank the country highest in the insecurity index. On the other hand, the country as a whole is better placed in terms of insecurity from threats than the seven states of the region. The study indicators largely reflect negative outcomes resulting from an absence of approaches to good governance, as the approaches fail to deliver the dividends of livelihood security and socioeconomic prosperity in the region. While Chapter 1 offers a comprehensive view of human security, combining both freedom from fear and freedom from want, in Chapter 2 Nani G. Mahanta argues that the key conflict management problem in Northeast India is definitional. Essentially, Mahanta believes that the solutions to resolve the security dilemmas existing in Northeast India could be more effectively identified and implemented by taking a more considered approach toward defining the underlying roots of these protracted conflicts. Two aspects of Mahanta’s work distinguish it from previous efforts concerning this conflict zone. The first is Mahanta’s presumption that, by applying the human security notions of freedom from fear and freedom from want, a better measurement of insecurity can be achieved, thus providing an improved understanding of how to

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address the security challenges affecting this region. The second is Mahanta’s belief that solutions to the security situation in Northeast India have been particularly elusive because external explanations of the central issues in these local conflicts have dominated the conflict resolution processes which have occurred up to now; therefore, the principal concerns of people living in these conflict zones have, unimaginably, not been taken into account. To address this information deficit, Mahanta employed a field study and questionnaire with people living in the conflict zones of Northeast India to better understand their perspectives on security threats and their opinions about methods for addressing these threats. The survey included 2,552 respondents. From the survey results, Mahanta drew these conclusions about the residents’ perceived threats: • • •

Armed groups are identified as a first source of threat; Insecurity caused by the state is identified as a second source of threat; and Transnational sources, such as narcotics trafficking, arms proliferation and regional insurgencies, are a third source of threat.

Based on these local perspectives, Mahanta observes that the following areas merit strengthened emphasis in the conflict resolution process: • •

• • •

Governance — Insecurity caused by a weak state provides fertile ground for violence. Scrapping of draconian laws and reduced power of security forces — Civilians are threatened by the constant harassment of state security forces. Peace dialogue — People want conflicts resolved through dialogue, not repression. Civil society initiative — The people in the region can be part of the solution. A greater South Asian and Southeast Asian destiny — Northeast India cannot continue to ignore the benefits that could be derived by developing closer regional ties.

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Decentralization of federal offices in Northeast India — Decentralization could help in preventing corrupt public offices.

In Chapter 3, Dilip Sarma et al. use the conflict situation in India’s northeast geographic region as a test bed to examine the assertion that there exists a causal, symmetrical relationship between underdevelopment and conflict. The authors conclude that underdevelopment is not necessarily the root cause of conflict in this region, but that unequal distribution and the perception of being left out of the development process seems to be the cause of conflict. Accordingly, the authors believe that all development projects are not necessarily beneficial for broad-based socioeconomic development and political stability, and emphasize the need for HSIA to be undertaken when development projects are proposed. In the authors’ analysis, HSIA is defined as the process of identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating those effects of proposed development projects and physical activities that may impair the human security of a certain section of the population. The rationale for HSIA is very much adapted from that which brought EIA to prominence in public policy debates concerning the need to protect the natural environment from industrial processes. An HSIA should be seen as a precautionary measure to prevent unintended consequences such as the potential impairment of human security requirements of resident communities. Sarma et al. outline the key elements of an HSIA: 1. Screening — An initial determination of potential human security impacts of the proposed project and whether a full HSIA will be required is made. 2. Scoping and preparation of the terms of reference (ToR) — This involves the identification of key issues and impacts that need to be addressed. 3. Impact analysis — A systematic prediction and evaluation of each human security impact identified in the ToR is carried out. 4. Mitigating measures — Measures to prevent, minimize, offset or compensate for the impairment of human security due to the project are drawn up.

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5. Monitoring — This entails compliance monitoring, mitigation monitoring and impact monitoring. 6. Final documentation — The entire HSIA process should be documented and made available for reference. The Orissa Project Moving to Orissa, we have, as a first step, developed a human security index for the districts, thereby differentiating this project from the Northeast India project, in which the index and ranking were done for states. Chapter 4 presents the index. In light of the availability of information from authentic secondary sources and periodicals over 10 years (1998–2007), seven human security indicators were developed for Orissa: number of households living below the poverty line, number of people affected by malaria, number of deaths due to natural calamities, number of deaths due to dowry, incidences of communal violence, habitations not having access to safe drinking water and change in forest cover. Each indicator was assigned a specific weightage by using the principal component analysis (PCA) method for three time periods, i.e. the years 1998, 2002 and 2007. As per the weightage, each of the 30 districts in Orissa was ranked in terms of human insecurity for the three time periods mentioned above. The composite score of human insecurity and ranking has changed over the years in different districts of Orissa. As per the scoring, 60% and 63.34% of districts had a moderate-to-least level of human insecurity in 1998 and 2002, respectively; while 40% and 36.74% of districts had a high-to-extremely-high level of human insecurity in 1998 and 2002, respectively. The general trend shows that the level of human insecurity decreased from 1998 (15 districts) to 2002 (13 districts), and then increased in 2007 (16 districts). Khurda remained the most insecure district in Orissa from 1998 to 2007, which otherwise occupies the top position as per the Human Development Index (HDI) ranking. This insecurity has been created due to the huge amount of loss of forest for urbanization and the highest number of deaths due to dowry. Out of all 30 districts in Orissa, 4 districts (13%) in 1998, 2 districts (6.67%) in 2002 and 5 districts (16.6%) in 2007 were found

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to be extremely insecure districts after clustering the index over the three time periods. The district of Gajapati was ranked as the most secure district in Orissa from 1998 to 2007 due to the increase in percentage of forest cover as well as the negligible occurrence of both communal violence and dowry-related deaths of women. A perusal of the performance level of selected indicators during 1998–2007 reveals striking facts regarding the state of human security in Orissa. Some indicators have improved in performance, while others have deteriorated. These attributes exhibit spatial as well as temporal variations, and these discrepancies are quite evident from the data analysis. For instance, the indicators “percentage of people living below the poverty line” and “number of people affected by malaria” have exhibited a vastly improved performance over the 10 years. This does not mean that all other indicators are not performing, but the degree of consistency of these two indicators is higher than that of the others. Overall, no co-relation was found between economic development and human insecurity in the state of Orissa. The paradigm shift away from national or international security to the security of people has far-reaching implications on actors and institutions at the domestic level. The state has the primary responsibility for the provision of human security for its citizens. Thus, an attempt was made to assess the performance of the state of Orissa against five carefully selected governance indicators: social sector budget allocation and expenditure, access to elementary education, expenditure on health and family welfare, presence of police and security personnel, and level of corruption. The performance levels of the different governance indicators have been mixed. The share held by the social sector in total state expenditure is still precarious. The dropout rate of primary school students remains high, despite government requirements stating that elementary education should be free and compulsory. The poor performance of Orissa in most of the health indicators has become a major concern. The number of police/security personnel per lakh population was found to be well below the national average. The recent trend of increasing left-wing extremist activities in Orissa has put an extra burden for more police presence. Furthermore, as Orissa

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is on the path of rapid industrialization, various critical issues like the protection of tribal rights and land acquisition have emerged with a potential for law and order problems. It is commonly recognized that corruption, which has become a universal phenomenon, unless kept in check, can undermine the finest systems. As per the findings of the India Corruption Study 2005, Orissa ranked ninth among the 20 states of India and the judiciary in Orissa ranked among the top four corrupt services in the country. The 2007 study placed Orissa in the category of a “high” corrupt state. As seen from the above findings, the Human Insecurity Index (HII) tries to convert perception to objectivity by using some qualitative and quantitative data. This is not to say that the HII does not need much refinement; rather, it is a richer and more interesting indicator than the HDI, particularly when developing a composite index at the micro level (district, block or village). The present work on the HII demonstrates that there is considerable potential for such an index when used in the context of measuring sustainability, development and human security. Chapter 5 parallels the Northeast India project by developing an HSIA methodology for Orissa. HSIA is the process of identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of proposed development projects by assessing the ills of installed or to-be-installed projects. The purpose of developing an HSIA methodology is not to negate development projects on the grounds that they may have adverse human security implications. Instead, the aim is to anticipate adverse human security impacts, prepare mitigation plans and incorporate these in the project, make contingency provisions for any unforeseen fallout and incorporate a human security monitoring mechanism in the overall project monitoring system. The key features of the proposed HSIA methodology are as follows: • •

Communities are oriented to respond. Respondents need to be persuaded to respond happily and guided inspiringly to answer. The domains to focus on include economic, environmental, sociocultural and governance-related.

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•

•

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For any single domain, not more than 10 questions must be asked to ensure there is no respondent fatigue. A focus group discussion is held with no more than 30 participants spread over, at the most, 90 minutes without a video camera. A hidden audio recorder may be preferred. A case study method is included that entails observing and narrating the situation, explaining problems, describing intervention techniques and finally presenting the outcome. The target communities are chosen longitudinally and/or crosssectionally to project contrast in absolute terms.

Finally, Chapter 6 presents a survey of three Naxal-affected districts in Orissa, India. The Naxalite movement, which began as a communist-led peasant movement in the Koraput and Ganjam districts of Orissa in the 1960s, is now perceived as a huge law and order problem in as many as 15 districts of Orissa. The activities of the Naxalites have so far been restricted to killing police and security personnel and police informers, abducting wealthy businessmen and contractors for a ransom, looting state armories and intimidating corrupt government officials. The deployment of security forces has been the biggest consumer of resources rather than food, shelter or health security needs. A survey was undertaken in the three worst-affected districts of Orissa (Malkangiri, Gajapati and Sundargarh) to uncover the perceptions of common people about different threats to human security due to Naxalite activities. As per the findings of the survey, the common people attribute the root causes of Naxalite activities to poor governance and failure of the state to ensure public good. About 93.3% of respondents cited unemployment as well as poverty and lack of basic facilities as the main causes of insurgency. The Naxal movement has sustained itself because it revolves around marginalized people of the state. The inaccessible hilly terrain, dense forests, lack of development, grievances of the tribals and poor, and absence of administration have been conducive to the spread of left-wing extremism in Orissa. Although there is a lot of hype and furore over the Naxalite activities in the state, one conclusion is indisputable, albeit strangely so.

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Like in most other regions of India, the self-claiming Naxalites have no projected vision or declared mission. There is no indication whatsoever that they are demanding appropriate development action for the backward communities of the non-coastal districts where they have been operating. Not once has it been made clear by the cadres that their mission is to bring socioeconomic and political justice to the poor, long-neglected regions. Obviously, without any ideological focus or clarity, these outfits have been focusing on making quick money by attracting misguided youth with the bait of living a dignified life of “pleasure through courage”. Insecurity, as it emerges from the survey findings, is not only a problem of physical safety, but also one of deprivation and restricted access to health and education facilities as well as social and economic opportunities. Human security, as perceived by common people, is not just the end of Naxalite activities; it also refers to the ability to go about one’s business safely, to have a job, to move around freely, to have access to education for children, to live a healthy life, etc. Hence, insecurity should not be dealt with through short-term military solutions, but rather through a long-term comprehensive strategy that abides by the promises of development and realization of entitlements. It should promote public policies and state-building efforts that reduce local incentives which trigger insecurities in the first place.

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Chapter 1

Constructing a Human Security Governance Index for Northeast India Kalyan Das

Introduction The northeast region of India (see Appendix A at the end of this chapter) is considered as a lagging region in the development process of the country. The per capita net domestic product in most states of the region is much lower than the country average (although the state of Nagaland had a higher per capita net state domestic product (NSDP) of Rs. 11,674 than the country average of Rs. 11,013 during 2004–2005). The popular conception is that the region is marred by incessant militancy perpetuated by various ethnic groups over certain demands and grievances, affecting the development initiatives and security of people in the region. However, there are also grounds to interpret that conflicts in the region are regarded only as a shield factor, and that there are many hidden and shadow factors (including poor governance) which could comprehensively explain the human insecurity issue in this subnational context. There is ample evidence to show that a significant section of the population in Northeast India could figure in the discourses of conflict and human insecurity. There is also evidence that the liberalized economic environment has pushed the people of the region to an unequal space, as reflected by the high youth unemployment rates. The younger generation is the greatest loser in such an environment. 13

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Indicators to Measure the Status of Human Security in Northeast India This study prepared an index of human insecurity for the seven states of Northeast India based on 14 indicators (see Tables B1(a) and B1(b) in Appendix B). The variables of poverty, rural youth unemployment, school dropouts, infant mortality, morbidity related to tuberculosis, accumulated crimes against children, accumulated crimes against women, incidences of corruption, encroachment of forest area, non-adoption of the right policies, gap between actual social sector (health and education) expenditure and the budgetary provisions, pending cases in district and subordinate courts, occurrence of violent incidents in the states of the region and presence of police personnel were suitably constructed into indicators to prepare the composite index of human insecurity in the region. The context of the country was also considered and compared relative to where the states of the region stand on human insecurity in India. The construction of the composite index of human insecurity was made by using the statistical tool of factor analysis to derive the weights from projection matrices. The index was made over three time periods: the contemporary period (2004–2005), the period at the end of the 20th century (1999–2000) and the period immediately after initiation of liberalization (1993–1994) (see Tables B2(a)–B2(c) in Appendix B). Which State Is Most Insecure in Northeast India? The data for the contemporary period reveal that Tripura is overall the most insecure state for human beings in the northeast region of India. Tripura is followed by the states of Assam and Manipur in the insecurity index (Table 1). The indices generated reflect that Mizoram is at present the safest state for human beings in the region. The study has also brought in the Indian context by including the average figures of the country for the selected indicators. However, in the country context we have dropped two indicators in the analysis: the gap between actual and provisioned social sector spending, and

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Table 1. Index of human insecurity for the states of Northeast India in the contemporary period. Insecurity ranking

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Tripura Assam Manipur Nagaland Arunachal Meghalaya Mizoram

5.57 4.84 3.55 3.28 3.16 3.05 2.50

non-adoption of the right policies in the wider welfare context. This is based on the grounds that in the overall context of the country it is difficult to measure the inefficiency of the country in social sector spending, as there exist multiple sources of finance to address the social sectors. Moreover, the country has adopted numerous welfare policies, so this indicator would create some bias in favor of the country average. The result reflects that the country as a whole is presently more insecure for human beings than many of the states in the northeast region (Table 2). An attempt has been made to look at the human insecurity scenario in the states of the region by dividing the indicators into three subgroups: development, threat and governance insecurity. Development insecurity in the states was captured through the indicators of poverty, unemployment, school dropouts, infant mortality, morbidity and encroachment of forest. Threat insecurity was captured through the indicators of accumulated crimes against children, accumulated crimes against women, occurrence of violent incidents and the presence of a large number of police personnel. Indicators of governance insecurity included corruption, non-adoption of needed policies, gap between actual and provisioned social sector spending, and pending cases in district and subordinate courts. The index of development insecurity reflects that Assam is the most insecure state for people in the region from the perspective of

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Kalyan Das Table 2. Index of human insecurity for the states of Northeast India and in the country context in the contemporary period. Rank

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Tripura Assam India Manipur Nagaland Arunachal Meghalaya Mizoram

5.70 4.73 3.92 3.09 2.89 2.82 2.31 2.21

Table 3. Index of development insecurity for the states of Northeast India in the contemporary period. Insecurity ranking

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Assam Tripura Nagaland Arunachal Meghalaya Manipur Mizoram

4.47 4.45 1.91 1.75 1.61 1.28 1.26

poor development, having a high youth unemployment rate, a high infant mortality rate and large encroachment of forest. This state is followed by Tripura and Nagaland. Mizoram is the most secure state from the development perspective not only in the region, but also showing a better score than the country average (Tables 3 and 4). In line with the assumption that development insecurity and threat insecurity have a positive association, the state of Tripura ranks top in the insecurity index of threats in the region, followed by Manipur and Nagaland. The high insecurity ranking of Tripura could be because of high crime rates against children and women. The index

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Table 4. Index of development insecurity for the states of Northeast India and in the country context in the contemporary period. Rank

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Tripura Assam India Nagaland Arunachal Meghalaya Manipur Mizoram

4.55 4.48 2.32 1.95 1.76 1.58 1.28 1.28

Table 5. Index of threat insecurity for the states of Northeast India in the contemporary period. Insecurity ranking

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Tripura Manipur Nagaland Mizoram Arunachal Assam Meghalaya

3.14 2.60 1.84 1.73 1.60 1.59 1.52

shows that Meghalaya is the safest state in the region from threat insecurity. Compared with the data on country averages, it is reflected that the states of the region are more insecure from threats in the country (Tables 5 and 6). Are poorly governed states generally more insecure for human beings? The data and indices to an extent reflect this. The index reflects that Meghalaya is the most poorly governed state in the region, followed by Manipur and Assam. The overall index of insecurity also reflects that Manipur and Assam are the most insecure states in the region (Assam is placed second and Manipur is third in the overall

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Kalyan Das Table 6. Index of threat insecurity for the states of Northeast India and in the country context in the contemporary period. Rank

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Tripura Manipur Nagaland Mizoram Arunachal Meghalaya Assam India

3.05 2.90 2.11 1.76 1.57 1.52 1.48 0.98

Table 7. Index of governance insecurity for the states of Northeast India in the contemporary period. Insecurity ranking

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Meghalaya Manipur Assam Arunachal Nagaland Tripura Mizoram

2.52 2.32 2.14 1.98 1.88 1.71 1.39

insecurity ranking). Conversely, the index reflects that the most secure state for human beings is also the best-governed state in the region (Mizoram). Furthermore, the data and index reflect that the country as a whole is most insecure from the perspective of poor governance, having high incidences of corruption and a large number of unresolved pending cases in the courts. In the country context, there is a positive association between governance insecurity and overall human insecurity (Tables 7 and 8). In the next section, I shall try to explain in more detail the factors influencing the insecurity indices in the states of the region.

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Table 8. Index of governance insecurity for the states of Northeast India and in the country context in the contemporary period. Rank

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

India Manipur Assam Tripura Arunachal Nagaland Mizoram Meghalaya

3.69 1.75 1.40 1.30 1.25 1.07 0.48 0.42

Human Insecurity Trend over the Years The composite score and ranking of insecurity have changed over the years in the states of Northeast India. At the end of the 20th century, Manipur was overall the most insecure state for human beings in Northeast India, followed by Assam and Tripura; the score of first principal component explained about 57% of the variance (see Tables B3(a) and B3(b) in Appendix B). In the early 1990s, Manipur was also the most insecure state in the region, followed by Meghalaya and Assam; the score of first principal component explained about 56% of the variance (see Tables B3(a) and B3(b)). In the late 1990s, a very high morbidity rate, a relatively significant school dropout rate, high incidences of corruption, and a huge gap in budgeted and actual social sector spending placed Manipur in the highest ranking of human insecurity (see Table B2(b)). During the early 1990s, a high morbidity rate, a large proportion of unspent money in the social sectors, as well as relatively high rates of crimes on women, school dropouts and poverty altogether put Manipur on top of the insecurity index (see Table B2(c)). Incorporating the average of the country, the score of first principal component reflects that at present the country is overall more insecure than most states in the northeast region. This picture has shown some improvement compared to the end of the 20th century (see Table B4(a) in Appendix B). High rates of crimes on women,

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poverty, corruption, and school dropouts as well as very high incidences of pending court cases have been the influencing factors in the insecurity indices (see Tables B2(a) and B2(b)). In the development insecurity context, Assam has remained at the top of the index throughout the three time periods (see Table B5(a) in Appendix B). In the context of insecurity from threats, Mizoram and Arunachal have improved their position in the recent past, but the status of Tripura, Manipur and Nagaland has worsened. Tripura has become most insecure for people from the perspective of threat indicators. Manipur too has remained in the upper stratum of insecurity indices, with the highest number of violent incidents of all the states during the reference period (see Table B7(a) in Appendix B). In the context of insecurity resulting from poor governance, the position of the states of Meghalaya, Assam, Arunachal and Nagaland has worsened in recent times as compared to where the states were ranked at the end of the 20th century (see Table B9(a) in Appendix B). On the other hand, governance indicators have shown improvement in Mizoram and Tripura in recent times. Could we see some correlations that poorly governed states are overall more insecure or that poor governance leads to more threats and development insecurity for people? What are the correlations among the different subgroups of insecurity indicators — development and threat, development and governance, and threat and governance? Running the correlations between the indices of these subgroups, one could see that statistically there exist insignificant relationships. However, we could also see from the indices created that poorly governed states (Manipur, for example) are also more insecure overall as well as from a threat perspective. Choosing the Variables to Construct a Human Security/ Insecurity Index in the Context of Northeast India How could we construct the indicators to measure human insecurity? Can we say that it is the insecurity to ensure and equip the people of a region, particularly the youth, for the changing situations in the

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present liberalized and competitive environment? Is it the insecurity to help them choose a decent form of livelihood for their own sustainability and contribute to the society? How congenial and secure is the environment in the family, society and polity to prepare people to take up the challenges in the present economic sphere? Basically, a congenial atmosphere and an adequate resource base are the two factors that facilitate people in securing a decent form of livelihood and ensuring their security in life. What are the indicators of a congenial social, political and economic atmosphere? Does an economic crisis on the home front push children out of school? The inability of the state to make the right approaches and spend money effectively makes health care prohibitive for people, and children usually bear the brunt. The occurrence of violent incidents and a high prevalence of crimes against women and children make the living space insecure to take initiatives for well-being for a significant section of the population. Corruption prevents development benefits from percolating to the downtrodden, and pending court cases dampen and delay the initiatives for human beings to start new ventures. Evidence shows that a majority of people in Northeast India are in a disadvantageous position to share the benefits of this progressing world. Illiteracy is a contributing factor, but of more concern are the high educational dropout rates and the low levels of educational attainment leading to poor human capital formation in the region. In the entire region of Northeast India, less than 0.5% of all enrolled students have the opportunity to pursue an education to secure a technical or professional degree or diploma. It is evident that the unskilled, the poor and the unemployed are situated in a very insecure environment to secure a decent livelihood. These disadvantageous people are not equipped to take up the job openings currently offered in some high-rise offices and high-paying urban-centric sectors like insurance, finance, software, etc. Even a congenial home and societal environment, despite keeping their motivation levels high, will not ensure the formation of their skills and capacity in an unequal economic setting. The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) data over the years reflect a rising unemployment rate in the states of Northeast

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India. However, this proportion of the unemployed is still smaller compared to the significant proportion of people living in poverty in the region, particularly in the populous states of Assam and Tripura. This indicates that the working poor outnumber the unemployed in the region. There is scope to explain that an unlimited labor supply in the lower end of the job market prevents the execution of minimum wage legislation. The unlimited labor supply in the lower end of the job market is the result of inequality in access to skill development and education. Along with the figures for the working poor, the figures for unemployed youth reflect a graver crisis situation in the region. Youth unemployment rates (for people in the 15–29-year age group) in urban areas of northeastern states are at present as high as 61.4% in Tripura, 27.7% in Nagaland, 23.3% in Assam, 19.3% in Manipur and 12.5% in Meghalaya; all are much higher than the national average of 11.9%, according to the NSSO 61st round of 2004–2005. There is evidence that unemployed youth are more likely to join extremist organizations, participate in ethnic conflicts for control over resources, indulge in violent crimes and become addicted to drugs; women are also more prone to trafficking for the “flesh trade”. Most job opportunities for people in the region currently lie in the traditional primary sectors, regional industries and some emerging petty tertiary activities. Livelihood in these sectors in the present economic environment is insecure largely because of the withdrawal tendency of the state from welfare measures. An absence of supportive regulations in many critical livelihood sectors has made this insecurity even more apparent. In this industrially backward region, more than 35% of rural households in Assam, 57% in Tripura, 25% in Arunachal and more than 10% in other states of the region do not have cultivable land. This factor forces people from these households to look for wage-earning jobs in farm and other petty non-farm sectors, unless they are equipped to take up upper-end jobs in the urban labor market. Even for the land-owning households, agriculture is fast becoming unattractive; there are many studies on this in the Indian context. It is true that the adoption of high-yield-value (HYV) seeds and shallow tube well irrigation has ushered a Green Revolution in some parts of the region by raising productivity in the

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agricultural sector. However, the farming families, most of whom are small or marginal farmers (43% of the total farming families have less than 2 hectares of land), are forced to incur the high, recurring input costs of using irrigation (cost of diesel) as well as HYV seeds and pesticides. This keeps their profit margins, even from high yields, at a bare minimum. Except for Arunachal, other states of the region do not have agricultural policies and, like the industrial policies of the region, certain crucial issues related to the agricultural sector (e.g. infrastructure, market access and regulated price of inputs) are not finding space in the policies and programs of the states. There is an absence of provision of minimum support for price and procurement in the region by the Food Corporation of India, which it justifies by arguing that the quantum of agricultural surplus in this region is much lower compared to the agriculturally developed states of Haryana and Punjab. Agriculture in this present environment has become capital-intensive, making it difficult for marginal and small farmers to carry on their operations. This has compelled the youth from farming families to look for alternatives in petty urban-sector jobs, such as non-motorized and motorized transport, petty vending and construction work, which have no regulatory provisions to guarantee a decent living. As a result, one can see a growing feminization of agriculture in the region involving unpaid and poorly paid women in the workforce; the same is true for the country as a whole. On the other hand, regulations adopted for the security of these flourishing non-farm lower-end jobs have been very tardy, although there have been steps in many states of the country to ensure security in these unorganized jobs. At the same time, a crisis is looming over the traditional industries in the region. The lack of control and regulations over the supply of raw materials, the lack of working capital and the invasion of cheap, competitive industrial goods from outside have dampened the spirit of entrepreneurs. There is also deficiency in skill upgradation and product diversification programs, making producers incapable of finding their niche markets. As a result, only about 7% of working people are in industrial jobs (both in organized and unorganized sectors), and this figure is showing a declining trend over the

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years in this resource-rich region. Even though some industrial units in both organized and unorganized sectors of the region during 1990–2004 have received more than Rs. 2,300 million in subsidies as part of the North East Industrial Policy, all of them have failed to create the required job generation for people in the region. The subsidies claimed by many defunct industrial units of the region reflect the prevalence of rampant corruption. Clearly, the industrial policies of the region pay little attention to the crucial regulatory components (e.g. an assured supply of raw materials at the right price, provision of working capital and market information services) and instead concentrate on the subsidy component to usher industrial development. There is also a massive drying up of jobs in the social sectors in the region. This has reduced the ratio of teachers to students in schools and of doctors to the population in the region. About 43% of primary health centers (PHCs) in the region — one PHC ideally covers 30,000 people — run with just one doctor. The government has implemented many schemes for the universalization of education by making an effort to raise access to schools, establishing education guarantee schemes such as Operation Blackboard and ensuring a sufficient provision of teachers. Other measures include the implementation of programs like the National Rural Health Mission and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act to address the gross human insecurity issues in the region. However, the resultant outcomes defy the investments made and the programs are reportedly marred by gross mismanagement. The state budget figures on social sector allocations often reflect the failure of the state machinery to spend the allotted amount, even though there always remains a hue and cry for required funds. This crisis in livelihood is reflected in certain fallout indicators. There has been a rapid degradation and depletion of natural resources, affecting the assurance of a sustainable livelihood. Poverty as well as the failure to adopt appropriate regulatory measures largely because of poor governance led to a massive encroachment and destruction of forest areas in the northeast region; this compelled the Supreme Court of India to impose a ban on timber felling in 1997.

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In the current post-ban period, the crisis of livelihood faced by common people dependent on forest and forest-based industries has been very critical. There is also evidence that depletion of the forest has induced the severity of flood damages and consequent land degradation, robbing many people of their primary livelihood sources. Apart from the natural calamities, certain development-related projects have caused the displacement of a significant section of the population in the region. Indeed, a study conducted by the North Eastern Social Research Centre estimated that 1.9 million people in Assam were displaced from 1947 to 2000. There is evidence that the fallout of displacement is aggravated by the failure of the state to adopt an appropriate rehabilitation plan and by the state’s inability to cleave out an efficient land use plan. The often-reported misuse of money in most state-sponsored schemes, the unacceptable level of benefits derived from these schemes and the unspent money allotted for such schemes reflect the poor governance on the part of the states in the region. Poor governance is further reflected in the failure of the state to adopt the right policies for assuring a decent livelihood, sufficient health and social security measures, and environmental conservation, among others. The democratic process of electing representatives revolves mostly around trivial issues, whereas the all-important crucial issues often take a back seat. An analysis of the election process in the region would provide important dimensions on how leaders and prospective leaders fail to understand the realities of human security, and instead aggravate this insecurity further by indulging in rigged elections and political killings. Justice towards ensuring human security in the region is further denied by long delays of trials involving civil and criminal cases. Defending the Indicators: The Web of Insecurity Prevailing in the Region as Reflected by the 14 Selected Indicators Poverty is the most apparent indicator to show the insecurity of people in a space. This raw indicator, which is measured in terms of a certain amount of income to procure the food items to obtain the minimum nutritional calories for the physical well-being of a person,

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excludes the basic living cost of clothing and housing or rental housing. The insecurity and conditions of people could be worse if the state fails to make enough provisions on social security measures, particularly on health and education. Can we supplement the poverty indicator with the indicator of per capita income? The latter is not likely to reflect the current reality because the emergence of certain urban-centric, high-paying jobs could be misleading when attempting to measure the average earning. The rural youth unemployment rate could reflect an alarming situation of human insecurity in rural areas in a space otherwise having the scope to disguise one as employed in farm-related family occupations. The rural youth unemployment rate could reflect multiple insecurities such as the poor skill formation of youth to the changing labor market situation, the stagnation of productivity in the farm sector or the loss of share of on-farm income to the domestic product, and the subsequent poor diversification of the rural economy. However, there could be an absence of policies to address the crucial issues. The school dropout rate reveals a mainly incongenial home environment. An economic crisis on the home front forces children to withdraw from school and pushes them into the world of work, be it paid work outside or unpaid work at home. Dropping out, which results in low levels of skill formation, puts children in a disadvantageous position to share the benefits of the progressing world. They are thus pushed into the lower-end, unregulated job market with minimum bargaining power. The poor wages (i.e. the market-clearing wage, not the minimum wage, in our case of unlimited labor supply) than place the child or family in a vicious cycle of poverty. The school dropout rate is a good indicator, educational as well as economic, to measure human insecurity. It could also be supplemented by the level of educational attainment; however, in our context this is a more complex indicator as our layered and diversified labor market requires different levels of skill and educational attainment, and putting a bar on the highest level of educational attainment could fail to capture the requirements in the labor market and could also reveal the wastage involved in education unless the states or the country has

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effective manpower planning. A low dropout rate would not only open up the upward mobility of a section of children but, along with some regulatory support, would also prevent the disparity in earning in different economic sectors. The infant mortality rate, an indicator of insecurity for children, reflects the poor status of health care provisions and access to pre- and post-natal care for women and children. There is scope to believe that, in this present liberalized environment, the withdrawal tendency of the state as well as poverty, and consequently the poor capacity to procure health care services, have made life more insecure. The infant mortality rate could explain a major proportion of variances. Morbidity, in the context of this study, refers to the morbidity incidences through the prevalence of tuberculosis. It is assumed that this disease alone could capture the public health challenges (health insecurity) posed by poverty, high illiteracy and poor sanitation. It is possible to accumulate and include other diseases common in the contemporary period, but the chances of bias emerge by capturing certain lifestyle diseases. Crimes against children and crimes against women are the two most menacing indicators capable of creating extreme levels of trauma to the victims and their families. The accumulation of incidences of a variety of crimes committed on women and children — molestation and rape, trafficking, kidnapping, dowry-related harassment and killings — reflects not only a depleting level of social capital, but also a poor level of governance. Such levels of emergent insecurity have many repercussions — economic, social and political — all fraught with instability. Corruption is perhaps the most significant explanatory variable that nullifies a great proportion of effort initiated and adopted (from right policies to money invested) towards the well-being of the society. The proportion of the encroached forest area to the total forest area is considered a better indicator than the change in forest cover caused by rampant exploitation. For certain reasons, such as measurement inefficiency or the inefficiency of the forest department, there is a high probability that the actual loss of forest cover in a state has not

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been captured or reported over the time periods. In this context, data on the encroachment of forest land could reflect not only the loss of forest cover, but also the livelihood crisis as well as the inefficiency of the state to make efficient and effective use of this renewable resource. Therefore, it can be considered as a good economic as well as governance indicator in the northeast region of India. The adoption of right approaches and policies by the states is considered as an initiative towards improving the well-being of the people. It also reflects the commitment of the elected representatives. Some policies are crucial for the sustainability of livelihood and ensure the social security of people. The presence of effective policies in a space is considered as a good governance indicator. One could see in the states of Northeast India how the non-implementation of certain acts and the non-adoption of certain policies (e.g. construction workers’ regulation and cess acts and clauses, and the national street vendors’ policy) have made livelihood in the lower end of the job market insecure. The existent positive gap between provisioned and actual spending in social sectors is considered as a bad governance indicator. In a resource-constrained space, the proportion of unspent money (particularly in social and economic sector programs) not only deprives people of the assurance of health, educational and economic security, but also reflects the inefficiency of the state machinery to make the allocations effectively. The incidences of the civil and criminal pendency of cases in district and subordinate courts reflect not only the inefficiency of the judiciary and their probable political high-handedness, but also how the insecurity looming large over a section of people arising from uncertainty could in fact turn out to be a crucial turning point in their lives. The occurrence of violent incidents generates insecurity and tension in a space. This poor governance indicator is a more influential indicator to measure insecurity in a space than simply capturing the killings caused by the occurrence of violent incidents. The presence of a high concentration of police personnel and security personnel in a state could be justified in terms of mitigating

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the prevailing threats. Threats from insurgency groups in Northeast India have compelled the states of the region to engage more security personnel than the country average. However, the amount of expenditure spent on security forces in the region is sometimes equivalent to the expenditure on one component of the social sectors (health, for example), for which the money could have been diverted to ensure social security in an otherwise normal situation. The presence of police personnel is itself considered as a threat indicator to human insecurity rather than the accumulated amount of money spent on them. This is because the monetary figures could be misleading to measure the situation, as the salary and pay structure of these service personnel do not follow the same scale across the states. It is thus assumed that these 14 indicators are, to a large extent, capable of explaining the human insecurity phenomenon in the Northeast Indian region. Constructing the Indicators: Sources and Limitations of the Data This study used the data on poverty estimates by the Planning Commission of India. The data on youth unemployment were derived from the NSSO estimates over the 50th, 55th and 61st rounds during the periods 1993–1994, 1999–2000 and 2004–2005, respectively. The school dropout data for classes I–X were collected from the Ministry of Human Resource Development for the periods 2004–2005, 1998–1999 and 1988–1989. The Office of the Registrar General of India was the main source of data on infant mortality rates, collected for the years 1993, 2000 and 2005. Along with infant mortality rates, we captured the morbidity incidences through the prevalence of tuberculosis to address the health insecurity issues in the region. Tuberculosis has re-emerged as a major health problem in many parts of the world due to the public health challenges posed by poverty, high illiteracy and poor sanitation. The adoption of the indicator of the number of people suffering from tuberculosis per lakh population in a state could thus reflect how insecurity has resulted from the vicious cycle of poverty. The data on this indicator were

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collected from the National Family Health Survey reports during the periods 1992–1993, 1998–1999 and 2005–2006. This study captured the insecurity of children and insecurity of women by accumulating all types of crimes committed on them. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), state police departments and human development reports of some states were sources of this information. The rate of incidences of crimes committed against women was measured by accumulating all types of crimes — kidnapping, rape, dowry deaths, molestation and trafficking — committed on them in a particular year by the rate of occurrence per lakh women population within the age group of 15 years and above. Likewise, crimes committed on children — including killing, kidnapping, rape, etc. — were accumulated and measured by calculating the rate of occurrence per lakh children below 14 years. To prepare the indicator of the prevalence of corruption, the number of cases pending investigation from previous years under the Prevention of Corruption Act per 1 million people was calculated for the years 2000 and 2005. The Ministry of Home Affairs and the NCRB were the sources of this indicator. The incidences of civil and criminal cases pending in district and subordinate courts of the states of the region were calculated in the presence of per lakh population. The proportion of encroached forest area to the total forest area was considered as a better indicator than the change in forest cover caused by rampant exploitation. The data for most of these indicators were also available at http://www.indiastat.com/. To construct the indicator of the non-adoption of needed policies, we used some subjectivity. It was assumed that the adoption of certain policies by the states provided an initiative for assuring livelihood security. In the context of Northeast India, we also assumed that, considering the region’s resources, comparative advantages and present demand for the kinds of jobs as well as the shifting trend in the labor market adoption of eight policies or approaches were rational steps towards the assurance of human security. A full 10-point score was given for the adoption of policies on agriculture, industry, information technology, power, tourism, forest and natural resources, social security and the unorganized sector. It was found that all states of the region, except Tripura (which, to some extent, made approaches

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through its People’s Plan), were silent in adopting and implementing social security acts and policies like the Building and Other Construction Workers’ Welfare Cess Act of 1996 and the National Policy on Urban Street Vendors. Except for the state of Arunachal, no other states in the region have adopted an agricultural policy. It is true that all of the states in the region have their respective industrial policies, in addition to the North East Industrial Policy for the entire region; however, there is a need to critically analyze the components of the policies to seek and ensure the well-being of a larger section of the population. Altogether, four states (Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur and Mizoram) in the region have adopted an IT policy, two states (Assam and Mizoram) have policies on bamboo, Mizoram and Meghalaya have their power policies, and Meghalaya is the only state in the region that has a policy on tourism. The official websites of the state governments were explored to construct this indicator. In a resource-constrained situation, the proportion of unspent money in social sector programs not only affects the security of human beings but also reflects the inefficiency of the state machinery. Budget papers of the states in the region over the periods 1994–1995, 1999–2000 and 2005–2006 were explored to see if there were any gaps between the proposed and actual expenditure in health and education sectors. Statewide incidents of terrorist violence were measured by the occurrence of violence per lakh population in each state of the region. This measure counted only the number of occurrences and did not capture the number of killings. It was assumed that the occurrence of such incidents itself would generate enough insecurity among people in a locality. The number of police personnel, both armed and civil, present per lakh population in a state was considered as a proxy indicator of the threat insecurity in the region. The construction of indicators over the time periods to prepare the insecurity index had certain limitations. Due to the unavailability of old data, some indicators were dropped for the earlier time phases. For the period 2004–2005, we constructed all 14 indicators; but for the periods 1999–2000 and 1993–1994, only 13 indicators and 8 indicators, respectively, were constructed to measure human

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insecurity in the states of Northeast India (see Tables B2(a)–B2(c) in Appendix B). We further dropped two indicators to prepare the composite index incorporating the country average. Nevertheless, this only had a minor effect in comparing the changes over the years. The Method of Analysis A rational ranking or indexing of insecurity requires addressing certain conditions: a state having a uniformly higher value than that of another state is given a higher ranking (weak Pareto rule); no single indicator should be considered to be so important as to determine the final ranking (condition of non-dictatorship); and the ranking method rules out a decision criterion that is useful when a specific data configuration arises, meaning the method should be capable of giving the final ranking for all possible data (condition of unrestricted domain). Satisfying all of these conditions, the application of factor analysis enables the determination of a vector known as the first principal component, which is linearly dependent on the constituent indicators and is the maximum sum of squared projections of the indicators (in a deviation from their respective means). The composition of the indicators into a single index has two stages: elimination of bias of the scale, and determination of weights of the indicators. In the present context, the indicators have been made scale-free by dividing each indicator by its mean. This method — unlike the other approaches of scale transformation (ranking, standardization, normalization and division by standard deviations) — does not lead to a shift in origin of the indicators in a given space, and the coefficient of variation of the indicators is retained and the projection matrix is derived from the transformed scale-free indicators.1 The eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the projection matrix gives the required weights of the indicators. In the projection matrix, the weights assigned to variables are directly

1 For more on this, see: Kundu, A. (1980). Measurement of Urban Processes: A Study in Regionalisation. Mumbai: Popular Prakashan.

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proportional to the coefficient of variation; whereas in the correlation matrix, the variations are made equal by making indicators scale-free through standardization (dividing the deviation of each observation from the mean by the standard deviation). The composite index for the geographical units (states, in our context) is obtained by post-multiplying the eigenvector with the transformed data matrix. The choice of this method of scale transformation is based on the assumption that significant insecurity indicators tend to be unevenly distributed over a space — as opposed to the assumption that the insecurity indicators are highly correlated in a space — and so indicators with a higher dispersion may be given higher weights when constructing the composite index. For example, if Tripura has asymmetrically high incidences of crimes on women and pending cases in courts compared to other states and other indicators following a certain trend, the highly dispersed indicators should be given higher weights in the insecurity index. This also calls for putting more emphasis to address the negative repercussions of highly deviated and dispersed phenomena. In this study context, we have avoided taking more than one principal component to derive the final composite index. However, apart from the overall set of indicators, the first principal component was also derived for three subgroups of indicators to measure development, threat and governance insecurity in the northeastern region of India, and the composite score subsequently explained the larger proportion of variations. Do we lose information in the process of composing the indicators? How good is the method? How effectively can we interpret the result with this method? It is true that the factor score that maximizes the sum of squared projections of the indicators in a deviated form (from the mean) does not explain the total variance of the indicators, except in exceptional cases. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the principal component method in summarizing the variations of a large number of indicators into a single index is widely commended and used by analysts in the present-day world. In our study, we have obtained meaningful results without sacrificing much information and the indices have explained a reasonable proportion of variations (see Tables B3(a)–B10(b) in Appendix B).

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There is further justification for deriving the weights and composing the index from the projection matrix. As our data matrix in most cases is non-negative, no indicators should be assigned a negative weight owing to the technicality of the method. The method of maximizing the sum of squared projections of the indicators gives non-negative weights on most occasions. However, non-negative weights in certain cases could mean that the indicators are not determinant for explaining a phenomenon. Making Broad Generalizations from the Macro Indicators: Does Bad Governance Increase Human Insecurity in Northeast India? The question emerges: are the realities of the region reflected by the indicators constructed? Do the indicators reflect the fact that Tripura is the most insecure state in the region? The data showed that the occurrence of crimes on every lakh population of women and children is much higher in this state, closely followed by the state of Assam. Crimes against women in the state include rape, molestation, kidnapping, killings, and cruelty of husbands and relatives. For crimes on children, the case of missing children causes the most fear in Tripura. Apart from the large-scale incidences of crimes against women and children, poverty and youth unemployment are also major concerns in Tripura (see Table B2(a) in Appendix B). The high rates of poverty and youth unemployment are explained, to a large extent, by landlessness and the poor process of industrial development in the state. The rising landlessness in Tripura (about 58% of households in this state have no cultivable land) reflects a serious crisis, considering the fact that land is the prime source of livelihood for rural people. This factor is largely due to the high population density of the state (305 people per km2 compared to 148 people per km2 for the entire region). The contribution of both organized and unorganized manufacturing industries to the NSDP currently remains at just about 4%; this is, however, true for many states in the region. The significant encroachment of forest area in the state could also be explained by the landlessness and poverty factors. Moreover, the state has a high number of pending cases in district and subordinate courts.

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It is true that Tripura is the only state in the region that has adopted a People’s Plan towards ensuring an effective development process. However, this sincere effort of the state is not mirrored by the adoption of definite policies to address its internal resources. Apart from its People’s Plan and industrial policy, the state lacks policies to address its agricultural sector (whereas Arunachal adopted an agricultural policy in 2001), power (Mizoram in 2002 and Meghalaya in 2007) and other renewable natural resources (bamboo policy of Mizoram in 2002 and Assam in 2005), tourism (Meghalaya in 2007) and information technology (Mizoram in 2002, Assam in 2000, Meghalaya in 2004 and Manipur in 2003). Tripura is at the top of the insecurity ranking, as reflected by the high incidences of pending cases in courts and non-adoption of needed policies; Tripura is also ranked highest in the subset of threat insecurity, given the high rates of crimes on women and children. Thus, high levels of development insecurity and threat insecurity account for most of the human insecurity in the state (see Tables B5(a) and B7(a) in Appendix B). However, there are certain indicators — a relatively low rate of corruption and efficient utilization of money in the social sectors — that also point to better aspects of governance security in the state. Assam is ranked second highest in the human insecurity index. This state has the highest incidences of poverty, infant mortality and encroachment of forest in the entire region. As for the indicators of school dropouts, crimes against women and pending cases in courts, the state is currently ranked second highest in the region. Over the years, Assam has shown some improvement in terms of poverty, youth unemployment (although there is a need to look at the poor wage factor and the underemployment issue) and infant mortality. However, of more concern are the rising levels of crimes against women and children, corruption, encroachment of forest, pending cases in courts and violent incidents as well as the poor utilization of money in social sectors (even though this indicator has improved to a certain extent in recent times), all of which reflect the high levels of development insecurity and governance insecurity in the state (see Tables B5(a) and B9(a) in Appendix B). Manipur occupies the third position in the overall human insecurity ranking, primarily because of the high incidences of

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corruption and violence in the state in recent times. The indicators of morbidity and non-adoption of needed policies also have a significant influence on the insecurity ranking of the state. However, other indicators — low rates of infant mortality and school dropouts, low incidences of crimes against children and a smaller number of pending cases in courts — make Manipur somewhat secure overall for human beings in our analysis. Despite this, insecurity from threats and governance insecurity still loom large over people in the state. The presence of a large number of extremist groups and the resultant conflict and violence could explain a large proportion of this insecurity. Nagaland is ranked fourth in the human insecurity ranking. It has high rates of youth unemployment (second only to Tripura) and non-adoption of needed polices, as well as relatively high incidences of morbidity, school dropouts, corruption and violence. However, the state has very low rates of crimes against women and children, infant mortality, and encroachment of forest area as well as the lowest number of pending cases in courts, thus making the state relatively secure in the region in terms of human security. Arunachal is ranked fifth in the human insecurity index. The state has an asymmetrically higher rate of morbidity in the state compared to other states of the region. Moreover, the state has relatively high levels of poverty, school dropouts, crimes against children and women, infant mortality, corruption and non-adoption of needed policies. The decomposition of indicators to their subsets reveals that human insecurity in the state of Arunachal is largely related to poor development (see Table B5(a) in Appendix B) in a space which has the lowest population density in the region. Does physical inaccessibility hinder the ability of a state to deliver benefits to the people in the state? This question deserves further exploration. Meghalaya is in sixth place in the insecurity ranking in the region. The state has a high rate of school dropouts and is very inefficient in spending the allotted amount of money in the social sectors. However, in the case of certain indicators — youth unemployment, morbidity, corruption, and non-adoption of the right policies — the state is in a better position than other states of the region.

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Mizoram is ranked last in the overall human insecurity ranking. Mizoram is now considered a peaceful state, having received a peace bonus from the central government. However, it still has high rates of school dropouts as well as crimes against women and children, a high gap in social sector spending, a large number of pending cases in courts and an asymmetrically high concentration of police personnel. One could certainly come to the conclusion that these factors are, to a large extent, the result of a high level of threat insecurity in a state otherwise not constrained by financial and natural resources or by population pressures (see Table B7(a) in Appendix B). On the whole, most states in Northeast India are better than the Indian average in the context of poverty (we avoid any debate on estimates of poverty), youth unemployment (except Tripura, Nagaland and Assam), infant mortality (except Assam), crimes against women (except Assam, Arunachal and Tripura), corruption (except Manipur), encroachment of forest (except Assam and Tripura) and pending cases in courts. However, in terms of morbidity, crimes against children (except Nagaland and Manipur) and violent incidents, the states of Northeast India are more insecure for human beings than the national average. It has been shown here that certain factors have made livelihood insecure in the states of the northeast region of India. Could we say that this is due to poor policy framing, and that such a crisis in livelihood has repercussions on the rising incidences of crimes and violence? Could the poor utilization of money in social sector programs and the poor status of health care be improved with more stringent directives and more accountability on the part of the state machinery? There is scope to believe that the right approaches and the right execution (for those people who work 8–10 hours a day) could make the states better from a human security perspective. One could observe how many days in a year the offices of the state administrations remain open (we know that the “bandh” culture is a common phenomenon), how many hours in a day officials work in their office, how many times a common man requires to visit an office for a petty job, and how many hours teachers work and teach with an effective syllabus, all of which place security issues in a

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vicious cycle. This also brings in the issue of manpower planning, which the states of the region lack; this is, however, also true for many states in the country. The education-specific work participation rate in Northeast India reveals an interesting feature. As opposed to the assumption that education leads to skill development and provides labor market security compared to the illiterate and unskilled, not all types of education provide livelihood security. There is a higher work participation rate among diploma holders than among graduates and technical graduates. There are more jobs in the relatively lower end of the job market, but the highly educated are not interested; on the other hand, in the upper end of the job market, manpower is oversupplied except in certain trades. This is not only indicative of ineffective manpower planning, but also involves the wastage of too much money spent on higher education. Thus, many lives have been made insecure by not allocating enough money in the budget for primary education in order to create a platform for all to leap forward. Do the states of the region show concern to address this issue? Steps to Ensure Human Security in Northeast India: The Need for Right and Effective Policies and Practices for Well-Being Can good governance open up the path for human security in the region? An effective government can help to establish political stability, encourage people’s participation in decision making, ensure effective public services, make the right approaches and policies, uphold the rule of law and control corruption (i.e. World Bank indicators of good governance). This could be true for the northeast region of India. However, our study indicators reflect mostly negative outcomes resulting from an absence of such approaches to good governance; therefore, the region has failed to obtain the dividends of livelihood security and socioeconomic prosperity. There is no doubt that the states of the region have made some progress by raising their per capita income over the last decade. However, the average per capita income in the states of the region is

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still less than the national average. During the early 1990s, the states of Nagaland and Arunachal had a much higher per capita income than the country average, but now the gap in the growth rate of per capita income between the states of Northeast India and the country as a whole is increasing. In other words, most of the states in the region (especially Tripura and Assam) have considerable revenue deficits in their budgets and resort to borrowing from the market. Apart from poverty and unemployment, the lack of development dividends in the region is also reflected by a lower per capita power consumption than the national average (see Appendix A) and a shortfall in the required power supply to meet the present power consumption. Not only have the states of the region failed to utilize their immense renewable resources, but ineffective actions have helped to deplete certain renewable natural resources beyond sustainability (for example, in the case of forest resources). Yet despite the general poverty and food insecurity (many rural households, varying from about 16% in Nagaland to 70% in Tripura, depend on the market for food grain), a large proportion of cultivable land in the states of the region still remains unutilized (from 9% in Tripura to about 80% in Meghalaya). Rising levels of human insecurity in the region are well reflected by the chosen indicators of the study: except for the estimated rates of poverty and infant mortality, no indicator has shown an improvement over the years. Although the high population density in the states of Tripura and Assam creates additional challenges to ensure livelihood security for people, there are still effective ways to accommodate and sustain the population pressure. Effective policies for the utilization of resources as well as for regulatory and real services by the government could pave the way to add value to its resources, making more jobs available; indeed, the current industrial policies of the states and the North East Industrial Policy very much lack these aspects. The hilly states of the region are relieved of the burden of population pressure at present, leaving enough scope to ensure the security of their population. It is true that the low population pressure in the hilly states of the region limits labor supply. This has helped salary and wage earners in

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these states to gain a higher average salary and wage than the country average, thus explaining the overall well-being of people in these states. However, one could assume high inequality in earning, leaving a section of people to look for additional employment. As reflected by the NSSO data from the 61st round of 2004–2005, a significant section of people in rural areas of the states of the region (15% of rural males in Arunachal, 6.9% in Assam, 3.7% in Manipur, 8.4% in Meghalaya, 12.5% in Mizoram, 17.3% in Nagaland and 8.9% in Tripura) are looking for additional employment. Poverty and unemployment clearly hinder people from leading dignified and peaceful lives, and there are many negative externalities such as urban congestion, lack of access to basic amenities, degradation of the environment, drug abuse, diseases and rise in conflicts. How affirmative are the governments of the region in supporting the process of creating job opportunities? It is true that the public sectors of the country are experiencing job cuts, and that the private sectors are now taking up the initiative to create more space for livelihood. How can the state complement such an initiative in the face of financial constraints? What is the state’s role in providing real services in a liberalized environment?2 To what extent are the real and regulatory support services of the state conducive to sustain the initiatives of the entrepreneurs and at the same time ensure the welfare of the working community? Can the state help to follow the “high road” approach in production regimes? Does the state have strategic visions and policies? Based on our analysis, the approaches of the states in Northeast India do not reflect steps to achieve a mature regime towards overall well-being. Is there a need to supplement the approaches with strong social capital? Is it strong social capital that has made Nagaland a secure state for women in the region (with the least incidences of crimes on women)?

2

Brusco (1982) discussed providing these services at a bare minimum cost to the state in the “Third Italy”. See Brusco, S. (1982). The Emilian model: productive decentralisation and social integration. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 6(2): 167–184.

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In conclusion, the construction of this human insecurity index helps us to understand the lacunae and complex dimensionalities of insecurities prevailing in this subregional context, and suggests improvements in governance to address the larger components of insecurity.

Appendix A: A Brief Profile of the States of Northeast India Arunachal is the largest state in the northeast region of India, with a geographical area of 83,740 km2. However, the state is very thinly populated, with a population of just 1.09 million and a population density of 13 people per km2. Population growth from 1991 to 2001 was 27%, which was higher than the national average of 21.5%. The sex ratio of the population is 893, and 79.25% of the population live in rural areas. Altogether, 61.7% of the workforce are engaged in agriculture. The literacy rate in the state is 54.3% (which is the lowest in the region), and the per capita consumption of electricity in the state is just 93.9 kW compared to the country average of 339,598 kW. The per capita net state domestic product (NSDP) during 2004–2005 was Rs. 9,678 at 1993–1994 prices, compared to the country average of Rs. 11,013. This otherwise peaceful state has, in recent times, been disturbed by sporadic violence triggered by certain extremist organizations in some districts of the state. Assam is the second-largest state in the region, with an area of 78,430 km2. In 2001, the state had a population of 26.6 million and a population density of 340 people per km2, higher than the national average of 313 people per km2. The growth rate of the population from 1991 to 2001 was one of the lowest in the country at 18.9%. The sex ratio of the population is 935. The literacy rate in the state is 63.2%, and the per capita power consumption is 1,985 kW. Altogether, 87.1% of the population live in rural areas and 29.2% of the workforce are engaged in agriculture. The per capita NSDP during 2004–2005 was Rs. 6,520, which was the lowest in the region. This state has been plagued by ethnic conflicts and armed violence for the past two-and-a-half decades, triggered by certain communities and extremist groups.

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Manipur has an area of 22,320 km2. In 2001, the state had a population of 2.16 million and a population density of 97 people per km2. The state recorded a 24.8% growth in population from 1991 to 2002. The state has the highest sex ratio in the region of 978. Altogether, 73.4% of the population live in rural areas and more than 52% of the workforce are engaged in agriculture. The literacy rate in the state is 70.5%. The per capita power consumption in the state is 177 kW, and the per capita NSDP during 2004–2005 was Rs. 8,751. This state is highly violent-prone with the existence of a large number of extremist organizations. Meghalaya has a geographical area of 22,430 km2. In 2001, the population of the state was 2.31 million and the population density was 103 people per km2. The state showed a 30.6% growth in population from 1991 to 2001. The sex ratio in the state is 972. About 80% of the population live in rural areas and the agricultural sector engages 65.8% of the total workforce. The literacy rate in the state is 62.6%. The per capita power consumption of the state is 733 kW, and during 2004–2005 the per capita NSDP was Rs. 9,727. This state is relatively peaceful, except for the occurrence of sporadic violence. Mizoram has a geographical area of 21,080 km2. In 2001, the state had a population of 0.89 million and a population density of 42 people per km2. The state showed a 28.8% growth in population from 1991 to 2001. The sex ratio of the state is 935. Mizoram is the most urbanized state in the region, with about half of its population living in urban areas. However, more than 67% of the workforce are engaged in agriculture. The literacy rate of Mizoram is one of the highest in the country at 88.8%. The per capita power consumption in the state is 125 kW, and during 2004–2005 the per capita NSDP was Rs. 10,833. Once the most troubled state in the region, Mizoram is now considered the most peaceful state. Nagaland has an area of 16,580 km2, and in 2001 had a population of 1.99 million. The population density is 120 people per km2, and from 1991 to 2001 the state showed a very high

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population growth rate of 64.4%. The sex ratio of the population is 909, and the literacy rate is 67.1%. About 82.5% of the population live in rural areas and agriculture employs 68% of the total workforce. The per capita power consumption in the state is 80 kW, the lowest in the region. The per capita NSDP during 2004–2005 was Rs. 11,674, the highest in the region. The present ceasefire between the extremist organization and the Government of India has made this state relatively peaceful than what it was a half-decade ago. Tripura is geographically the smallest state in Northeast India, with an area of 10,480 km2. In 2001, the state had a population of 3.20 million and a population density of 305 people per km2. Population growth from 1991 to 2002 was 16%, which was the lowest in the region. The sex ratio of the state in 2001 was 948. About 83% of the population live in rural areas. Altogether, 28.9% of the workforce are engaged in agriculture. The literacy rate in the state is 72.6%. The per capita power consumption in the state is 423 kW, and during 2004–2005 the per capita NSDP was Rs. 9,969. This state is very often troubled by ethnic and extremist violence triggered by various interest groups.

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Appendix B: Tables Table B1(a).

Indicators adopted for preparation of the insecurity index.

No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Indicator Percentage of people living below the poverty line Rural youth unemployment rate School dropout rate — classes I–X Infant mortality rate Number of people suffering from medically treated tuberculosis per lakh population Accumulated crimes against children per lakh children Accumulated crimes against women per lakh women Pending cases of cognizable crimes registered under the Prevention of Corruption Act per 10 lakh population Percentage of forest area encroached to the total forest area Non-adoption of right policies by the state for livelihood security and well-being Gap between revised and actual expenditure in education and health sectors Pendency of civil and criminal cases per lakh population in district and subordinate courts Occurrence of violent incidents per lakh population Presence of civil and armed police personnel per lakh population

Table B1(b). Indicator 1 2 3 4 5 6, 7

8 9 10 11 12–14

Sources of data. Source

Planning Commission estimates; http://www.indiastat.com National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), 50th, 55th and 61st rounds Ministry of Human Resource Development; http://www.indiastat.com Ministry of Home Affairs; Ministry of Health; http://www.indiastat.com National Family Health Survey, 2005–2006, 1998–1999, 1992–1993, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) http://www.indiastat.com; National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB); official websites of state police departments; human development reports of the states Ministry of Home Affairs; NCRB; http://www.indiastat.com http://www.indiastat.com Official websites of the respective states of the northeast region; various sources on the states Budget papers of the respective states of the northeast region http://www.indiastat.com

Indicator

2004–2005

2005

2005–2006

2005

2005

2005

2004

Percentage below poverty line

Youth unemployment rate

School dropout rate

Infant mortality rate

Medically treated morbidity per lakh population

Encroached forest area to total forest area

2.5 9.7 3.9 0.8 1.3 14.9 33 5.7

Incidences of accumulated crimes on women per lakh women 49.8 77 19.2 19.8 32.7 2.5 81.5 48.3

Corruption cases per million population

17.6 19.7 17.3 18.5 12.6 19 18.9 27.5

Incidences of accumulated crimes on children per lakh children 5.4 4.4 1.3 9.7 6.7 0.1 16.9 4.1

2.7 2.6 5 0 0 3 1.3 5

0.06 10.77 0.03 0.4 1.01 0 7.3 1.98

Indicator

37 68 13 49 20 18 31 58

1,096 605 804 446 461 585 545 418

2008

2005–2006

2006

2006

2006

Score of non-adoption of right policies

Gap between budgeted and actual spending in social sectors 3.64 4.6 3.36 18.77 5.6 3.47 1.08 —

Pending cases per lakh population in district and subordinate courts 490 698 272 468 546 189 1,027 2,468

Occurrence of violent incidents per lakh population

Presence of police personnel per lakh population

1.09 1.25 17.49 1.55 0.56 12.77 2.21 0.15

464 178 554 360 768 558 591 126

7.5 6.3 7.5 5 5 8.8 5 —

45

Arunachal Assam Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Tripura India

70.8 75 43 79.2 67 67.3 73.4 61.9

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2004–2005

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Arunachal Assam Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Tripura India

2004–2005

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Indicators of human insecurity in Northeast India: contemporary period.

Table B2(a).

1998–1999

2000

1998–1999

2000

2000

2000

Percentage below poverty line

Youth unemployment rate

School dropout rate

Infant mortality rate

Medically treated morbidity per lakh population

1.5 12.5 5.8 1 3.4 10 3.9 4.6

77.2 75.1 76.7 62.9 72.6 65.9 80.2 66.7

44 75 23 58 21 42 41 68

1,115 357 1,020 648 813 1,078 839 432

Incidences of accumulated crimes on women per lakh women 46.8 45.8 10.9 8.5 47.6 3.7 31.4 43.8

Corruption cases per million population

33.47 36.09 28.54 33.87 19.47 32.67 34.44 26.1

Incidences of accumulated crimes on children per lakh children 4.8 1 0 0.6 8.6 0.8 4.7 1.4

Indicator

Arunachal Assam Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Tripura India

2002

1999–2000

2000

2004

2000

Encroached forest area to total forest area

Gap between budgeted and actual spending in social sectors

Occurrence of violent incidents per lakh population

Presence of police personnel per lakh population

0.06 9.15 0 0.92 0 0 5.18 2

6.95 20.51 22.13 5.98 7.29 0 2.43 —

Pending cases per lakh population in district and subordinate courts 1.6 0.3 105.9 244.3 7.9 0 79 1,991

3.7 1 20 2 0.3 9.4 6.6 0.15

445 208 574 340 665 891 359 129

0 0.9 5.4 0 3.4 1 0 2.9

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1999–2000

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Arunachal Assam Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Tripura India

1999–2000

Kalyan Das

Indicator

Indicators of human insecurity in Northeast India: period around the end of the 20th century.

46

Table B2(b).

a

1993–1994

1988–1989

1993

1992–1993

1996

1991

1994–1995

Percentage below poverty line

Youth unemployment rate

School dropout rate

Infant mortality rate

Medically treated morbidity per lakh population

Incidences of accumulated crimes on children per lakh children 4.04 1.64 1.24 1.47 11.26 0 1.89 2.3

Incidences of accumulated crimes on women per lakh women 41.1 26.1 44.1 9.9 68.2 0.9 30.8 18.2

Gap between budgeted and actual spending in social sectors −0.71 −11.09 25.47 15.1 −1.63 −0.48 −0.79 —

39.35 40.86 33.78 37.92 25.66 37.92 39.01 36

For the years 1991–1992.

2.6 18.6 5.2 0.5 3.2 4.6 11.8 4.2

88.3 79.9 77.3 89.7 81.4 82.6 82.6 72

40 88.7 42.4 64.2 14.6 17.2 75.8 79a

938 638 951 321 311 491 289 467a

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Arunachal Assam Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Tripura India

1993–1994

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Indicator

Indicators of human insecurity in Northeast India: period after initiation of liberalization.

Constructing a Human Security Governance Index for Northeast India

Table B2(c).

47

2004–2005

1999–2000

1993–1994

Rank

States

Indices

States

Indices

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Tripura Assam Manipur Nagaland Arunachal Meghalaya Mizoram

5.57 4.84 3.55 3.28 3.16 3.05 2.50

Manipur Assam Tripura Mizoram Meghalaya Nagaland Arunachal

4.90 4.66 3.64 3.51 2.86 2.85 2.77

Manipur Meghalaya Assam Arunachal Mizoram Tripura Nagaland

7.40 4.50 1.50 1.07 0.90 0.84 0.50

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Overall insecurity indices of Northeast Indian states.

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Table B3(a).

Indicators Poverty Youth unemployment School dropouts Infant mortality Morbidity Crimes on children Crimes on women Corruption Forest encroachment Non-adoption of policies Gap in social sector spending Pending court cases Violent incidents Presence of police personnel Explained variations in percentage

1999–2000 Weights 0.25 0.31 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.29 0.26 0.33 0.24 0.20 0.27 0.30 0.24 66.92

Indicators Poverty Youth unemployment School dropouts Infant mortality Morbidity Crimes on children Crimes on women Corruption Forest encroachment Gap in social sector spending Pending court cases Violent incidents Presence of police personnel Explained variations in percentage

1993–1994 Weights 0.26 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.27 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.26 0.29 0.26 56.90

Indicators Poverty Youth unemployment School dropouts Infant mortality Morbidity Crimes on children Crimes on women Gap in social sector spending Explained variations in percentage

Weights 0.16 0.06 0.17 0.15 0.21 0.12 0.18 0.91 55.82

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2004–2005

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Weights assigned to the indicators by first principal component.

Constructing a Human Security Governance Index for Northeast India

Table B3(b).

49

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Kalyan Das Overall insecurity indices of Northeast Indian states and the country.

Table B4(a).

2004–2005 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Table B4(b).

1999–2000

States

Indices

States

Indices

Tripura Assam India Manipur Nagaland Arunachal Meghalaya Mizoram

5.70 4.73 3.92 3.09 2.89 2.82 2.31 2.21

India Manipur Assam Mizoram Tripura Nagaland Arunachal Meghalaya

5.28 3.98 3.76 3.40 3.34 2.98 2.69 2.01

Weights assigned to the indicators by first principal component.

2004–2005 Indicators Poverty Youth unemployment School dropouts Infant mortality Morbidity Crimes on children Crimes on women Corruption Forest encroachment Pending court cases Violent incidents Presence of police personnel Explained variations in percentage

1999–2000 Weights 0.27 0.34 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.30 0.31 0.28 0.37 0.30 0.24 0.24 65.15

Indicators Poverty Youth unemployment School dropouts Infant mortality Morbidity Crimes on children Crimes on women Corruption Forest encroachment Pending court cases Violent incidents Presence of police personnel Explained variations in percentage

Weights 0.27 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.33 0.24 0.39 0.28 0.24 60.23

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Constructing a Human Security Governance Index for Northeast India Development insecurity indices of Northeast Indian states.

Table B5(a).

2004–2005 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

51

1999–2000

1993–1994

States

Indices

States

Indices

States

Indices

Assam Tripura Nagaland Arunachal Meghalaya Manipur Mizoram

4.47 4.45 1.91 1.75 1.61 1.28 1.26

Assam Tripura Nagaland Meghalaya Manipur Arunachal Mizoram

4.97 3.11 2.23 1.74 1.70 1.67 1.31

Assam Tripura Manipur Arunachal Meghalaya Nagaland Mizoram

3.61 2.71 2.29 2.17 1.78 1.73 1.32

Table B5(b). Weights assigned to the indicators by first principal component (projection matrix). 2004–2005 Indicators Poverty Youth unemployment School dropouts Infant mortality Morbidity Forest encroachment Explained variations in percentage

1999–2000 Weights Indicators 0.33 0.47

Poverty Youth unemployment 0.33 School dropouts 0.38 Infant mortality 0.31 Morbidity 0.57 Forest encroachment 75.37 Explained variations in percentage

1993–1994

Weights Indicators 0.35 0.43

Poverty Youth unemployment 0.34 School dropouts 0.39 Infant mortality 0.30 Morbidity 0.58 Explained variations in 77.62 percentage

Weights 0.42 0.51 0.41 0.47 0.42 86.5

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Table B6(a). country.

Development insecurity indices of Northeast Indian states and the

2004–2005

1999–2000

Rank

States

Indices

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Tripura Assam India Nagaland Arunachal Meghalaya Manipur Mizoram

4.55 4.48 2.32 1.95 1.76 1.58 1.28 1.28

Assam Tripura Nagaland India Manipur Meghalaya Arunachal Mizoram

4.94 3.14 2.28 2.26 1.778 1.777 1.73 1.36

Table B6(b). Weights assigned to the indicators by first principal component (projection matrix). 2004–2005

1999–2000

Indicators

Weights

Poverty Youth unemployment School dropouts Infant mortality Morbidity Forest encroachment Explained variations in percentage

Table B7(a).

Indicators

0.34 0.47 0.34 0.37 0.32 0.56 75.28

Weights

Poverty Youth unemployment School dropouts Infant mortality Morbidity Forest encroachment Explained variations in percentage

0.36 0.43 0.35 0.39 0.32 0.56 77.97

Threat insecurity indices of Northeast Indian states. 2004–2005

1999–2000

Rank

States

Indices

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Tripura Manipur Nagaland Mizoram Arunachal Assam Meghalaya

3.14 2.60 1.84 1.73 1.60 1.59 1.52

Mizoram Arunachal Tripura Manipur Nagaland Assam Meghalaya

3.17 2.45 2.30 2.23 1.76 1.27 0.74

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Table B7(b).

Weights assigned to the indicators by first principal component.

2004–2005 Indicators

1999–2000 Weights

Crimes on children Crimes on women Violent incidents Police personnel Explained variations in percentage

Table B8(a).

53

Indicators

0.51 0.49 0.52 0.48 64.14

Weights

Crimes on children Crimes on women Violent incidents Police personnel Explained variations in percentage

0.57 0.49 0.46 0.47 67.11

Threat insecurity indices of Northeast Indian states and the country. 2004–2005

Rank

States

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Tripura Manipur Nagaland Mizoram Arunachal Meghalaya Assam India

1999–2000 Indices

States

3.05 2.90 2.11 1.76 1.57 1.52 1.48 0.98

Mizoram Manipur Arunachal Tripura Nagaland Assam India Meghalaya

Indices 3.19 2.67 2.51 2.44 2.01 1.22 1.11 0.79

Table B8(b). Weights assigned to the indicators by first principal component (projection matrix). 2004–2005 Indicators Crimes on children Crimes on women Violent incidents Police personnel Explained variations in percentage

1999–2000 Weights 0.47 0.43 0.53 0.49 63.36

Indicators Crimes on children Crimes on women Violent incidents Police personnel Explained variations in percentage

Weights 0.56 0.46 0.52 0.45 64.75

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Governance insecurity indices of Northeast Indian states. 2004–2005

1999–2000

Rank

States

Indices

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Meghalaya Manipur Assam Arunachal Nagaland Tripura Mizoram

2.52 2.32 2.14 1.98 1.88 1.71 1.39

Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Assam Tripura Nagaland Arunachal

4.44 2.56 1.89 1.54 0.86 0.410 0.409

Table B9(b). Weights assigned to the indicators by first principal component (projection matrix). 2004–2005 Indicators

Weights

Corruption Non-adoption of policies Gap in spending in social sectors Pending court cases Explained variations in percentage Table B10(a). country.

1999–2000

0.50 0.49 0.53 0.47 71.33

Indicators

Weights

Corruption Gap in spending in social sectors Pending court cases Explained variations in percentage

0.63 0.53 0.57 66.43

Governance insecurity indices of Northeast Indian states and the

2004–2005

1999–2000

Rank

States

Indices

States

Indices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

India Manipur Assam Tripura Arunachal Nagaland Mizoram Meghalaya

3.69 1.75 1.40 1.30 1.25 1.07 0.48 0.42

India Manipur Mizoram Meghalaya Tripura Nagaland Assam Arunachal

6.72 1.50 0.77 0.74 0.24 0.22 0.20 0.01

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55

Weights assigned to the indicators by first principal component.

2004–2005 Indicators Corruption Pending court cases Explained variations in percentage

1999–2000 Weights −0.74 0.68 86.72

Indicators Corruption Pending court cases Explained variations in percentage

Weights 0.37 0.93 59.28

Bibliography on Northeast India to Understand Human Security Issues Baruah, Sanjib (2007). Durable Disorder: Understanding the Politics of North East India. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Datta Ray, B., H. K. Mazhari and P. M. Passah (2000). Population, Poverty and Environment in North East India. New Delhi: Concept. Dubey, Amaresh, M. Satish Kumar, N. Srivastav and E. D. Thomas (eds.) (2007). Globalisation and North East India. New Delhi: Standard Publishers. Hussain, M. Sajjad (2008). Building Legitimacy: Exploring State–Society Relations in North East India. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Hussain, Monirul (2007). Interrogating Development: State Displacement and Popular Resistance in North East India. New Delhi: Sage. Misra, Udayan (2000). The Periphery Strikes Back: Challenges to the NationState in Assam and Nagaland. Shimla: Indian Institute of Advanced Study. Nag, Sajal (1990). Roots of Ethnic Conflicts: Nationality Questions in North East India. New Delhi: Manohar. Nepram, Binalakshmi (2002). South Asia’s Fractured Frontier: Armed Conflict, Narcotics and Small Arms Proliferation in India’s North East. New Delhi: Mittal Publications. Roy, A. K. and Bimal J. Deb (2007). Terrorism and Human Rights in North East India. Shillong: North-East India Council for Social Science Research. Sachdeva, G. (2000). Economy of the North-East: Policy, Present Conditions and Future Possibilities. New Delhi: Konark.

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Syiemlieh, David, Anuradha Dutta and S. Baruah (eds.) (2006). Challenges of Development in North East India. New Delhi: Regency Publications. Thomas, C. J. (2002). Dimensions of Displaced People in North East India. New Delhi: Regency Publications. Verghese, B. G. (1996). India’s North East Resurgence: Ethnicity, Insurgency, Governance and Development. New Delhi: Konark Publishers.

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Chapter 2

Human Security Mapping in Conflict Zones: The Case of Northeast India Nani G. Mahanta*

Northeast India: Militarization — A Way of Life Northeast India is a conflict zone with a history of armed rebellion that goes back to the days of the colonial period. In the postindependence period, the first major challenge to India as one unified nation came from Northeast India, a region which is a conglomerate of seven (now eight, with the inclusion of Sikkim) predominantly tribal states. Northeast India — comprising the states of Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland, Tripura, Arunachal and Mizoram — is perhaps the most heterogeneous region in India, with 250 social groups and more than 75 languages. Only 2% of its landmass is connected with India; the rest of its boundaries, which stretch more than 4,500 km, is shared with South and Southeast Asian countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, China and Myanmar. The whole region is connected to the rest of the country by a tenuous 22-km land corridor through Siliguri in the eastern state of West Bengal — a link that has come to be referred to as the “Chicken’s Neck”.

* The author acknowledges the help from various state coordinators and data collectors for this project. The author is particularly grateful to Dr. Akhil Ranjan Dutta, Reader in the Department of Political Science at Gauhati University, and Dr. Mangi Singh, Reader in the Department of Political Science at Manipur University. 57

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The Naga rebellion — sometimes called the “mother” of the region’s insurgencies — began in the 1950s. Though dormant since a ceasefire in 1997, it is one of the world’s oldest unresolved armed conflicts (Baruah, 2010, p. 239). In fact, the sheer number of armed rebel groups in the Northeast Indian region is extraordinary. According to one recent count, there are as many as 109 armed rebel groups. Manipur tops the list with 40 such organizations, of which 6 are banned, 9 are active and 25 are inactive. After Manipur, Assam is next on the list with 34 armed rebel groups, of which 2 are banned, 6 are active and 26 are inactive. Meghalaya has 4 armed rebel groups, of which 3 are active and 1 is inactive. Mizoram has 2 armed rebel organizations, both of which are listed as active. Nagaland has 2 active and 2 inactive groups of armed rebels. Tripura has 2 armed rebel groups that are banned, in addition to 1 active and 22 inactive groups. Only Arunachal, according to this count, has no armed rebel organizations.1 Mapping Human Security in Northeast India: The Perspective of Human Security Through this proposal, we are looking at the plight of the civilians in conflict zones of Northeast India from the conceptual tool of human security. The notion of human security is based on two mutually compatible notions: freedom from fear and freedom from want. The former view, initially articulated by Canada, focuses on reducing the human costs of violent conflict through measures such as a ban on land mines, on using women and children in armed conflict, on child soldiers and on small arms proliferation, as well as the promulgation of human rights and international humanitarian laws. The latter view, advocated by Japan, is closer to the original announcement of human security by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1994. It stresses the ability of individuals and societies to be free from a broad range of military and non-military threats such as poverty, diseases and environmental degradation. 1

Compiled from the figures given by the Institute for Conflict Management; see http://www.satp.org/ (accessed August 15, 2010).

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The difference between these two conceptions of human security is arguably negligible, since both regard the individual as the object of security, and both acknowledge the role of globalization and the changing nature of armed conflict in creating new threats to human security. Moreover, both perspectives stress safety from violence as a key objective of human security and both call for a rethinking of state sovereignty as a necessary part of promoting human security. In this proposal, we are primarily concerned about looking into freedom from fear, and an attempt is made to measure insecurity and fear by adopting both qualitative and quantitative criteria. However, a further reading of the data generated through our field survey would reveal that there is a symbiotic relationship between freedom from want and prevention of violence in Northeast India. The mapping of human security in Northeast India invites multi-dimensional approaches and strategies, due to the complex nature of conflict and insecurity in the region. There is a straightforward conflict between some insurgent groups and the Indian government, as is the case with the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA). However, there are other forms of conflict where one party is in conflict with many parties. For example, the Bodo militancy is in conflict with both the Indian government and some other insurgent groups within the state of Assam. The nature of ethnic conflict is also multi-dimensional and multi-layered. There are inter- and intra-ethnic conflicts, in addition to conflicts between ethnic groups and the Indian government. So, a general theoretical and analytical framework of conflict analysis is not applicable in the case of Northeast India. A theoretical framework in the context of Northeast India needs a sound empirical foundation, and the search for human security in the region needs to be grounded in such an empirical foundation. A typological analysis of the conflicts in Northeast India can be made in the following manner: 1. The first category is of a secessionist or exclusivist type. These movements, such as the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB)

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2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

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and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland — Isak–Muivah (NSCN-IM), want to establish an independent homeland and are essentially violent in nature. The second category is autonomist in character. The Assam Movement of 1979–1984 was a non-violent way of redefining the relationship between the center and the periphery. In addition, there are many insurgent groups who want to redefine their relationship to the Indian union as an autonomous or separate state or as an autonomous district council within the existing system. The Bodoland movement as well as the tribal movements in Tripura and in Karbi Anglong are some examples of this type. There are struggles against the dominant group within a state. For example, the Bodos fight with the Assamese, the Nagas fight with the Kukis and the Meiteis, and the Karbis fight with the Dimasas and the Kukis. Many such inter-tribal clashes lead to massive killings and displacement. There are also intra-tribal clashes which lead to violence in the region. The Nagas, for example, fight not only with the Indian government, but also among themselves for dominance and power. The Bodos have significant intra-ethnic differences that led to the killing of many Bodos in 1996–2000. Another category includes those who fight for an autonomous state under Article 244A of the Constitution of India. The Karbis and the Bodos demand this status from time to time. There are some movements which seek to gain benefits within the Indian Constitution, such as recognition as a Scheduled Caste (SC) or Scheduled Tribe (ST). In recent times, groups like the Chutias, Koch Rajbongshis, Adivasis, Ahoms, Motoks and Morans are demanding ST recognition. There are some movements which are irredentist in character. The demand for a “Greater Nagaland” (Nagalim) encompassing the territories of Assam, Manipur and Arunachal is the best example of this type. The Bodos in Assam are also encroaching reserved forest land and forcing people to leave the Bodoland area so that they can form a homogeneous homeland in the area.

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8. However, these movements are not mutually exclusive in nature. Many violent movements have been successfully co-opted and settled within the Indian union, such as the Mizo movement. Even groups like the NSCN are now negotiating for special federal relations with India. Many of the groups mentioned above have a “Suspension of Operations” agreement with the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs. Needless to say, the common reference point for all movements is the Indian government, from whom they want to derive the maximum allocation of resources and benefits. Defining armed conflict One of the primary sources of armed conflict data for the Human Security Report is the dataset created jointly by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO).2 The Uppsala/PRIO dataset is generally selected for a number of reasons: • • •

Unlike other datasets, it is updated annually. It is widely used within the research community. It is becoming increasingly recognized in the policy community.

With the new data commissioned for the Human Security Report, the Uppsala/PRIO dataset is the most comprehensive single source of information on contemporary global political violence. The Uppsala/PRIO dataset has traditionally counted only “state-based” conflicts: armed disputes in which control over the government and/or territory is contested, in which at least one of the warring parties is a state, and which result in at least 25 battle-related deaths

2

See the Human Security Report website (http://www.humansecurityreport.info); see also the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s database (http://www.pcr.uu.se/ research/ucdp/database).

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in a year. The category “battle-related deaths” includes not only combatants, but also civilians caught in the crossfire. Conflicts are also categorized according to their intensity: “conflicts” have at least 25 battle-related deaths per year, whereas “wars” have at least 1,000 battle-related deaths per year.

Armed violence and human insecurity in Northeast India All of these movements have had serious repercussions, leading to profound human insecurity in the region. The Indian federal government and the state governments in the northeast region have deployed large formations of regular army and federal paramilitary forces. The inevitable militarization of the region and the murky “covert operations” have been accompanied by rampant human rights violations, due to the unrestrained use of terror by both state forces and rebel factions. Extra-judicial killings, ethnic cleansing and largescale massacres followed by substantial internal displacement — India’s northeast has witnessed it all. The growth of the civil society in the strife-torn region has been impeded by the lack of democratic space, as special laws — all very draconian and very unpopular with local communities — have remained in effect in the northeast region to fight the insurgencies. The high level of legislative instability in some northeastern states has been compounded by the growing linkages between legitimate political parties and underground rebel factions or those who have gained state patronage after surrender. Forming a complex matrix, no other region in India, South Asia, or the world for that matter has seen the existence of numerous ethnicbased insurgent outfits or the proliferation and mushrooming of militant outfits as in Northeast India. A small glimpse of the casualties suffered is given in Table 1. It would be wrong to say that the Indian government resolves identity and ethnicity issues only through coercive means. Many violent and non-violent movements have been co-opted within the Indian political system. There are three ways through which basic

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Human Security Mapping in Conflict Zones: The Case of Northeast India Table 1.

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Status of militancy in Northeast India during the period 2001–2006.

Incidents Extremists killed Security forces killed Civilians killed

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

1,335 572 175 600

1,312 571 147 454

1,332 523 90 494

1,234 404 110 414

1,332 405 70 393

1,366 395 76 309

Source : Annual Report 2006–2007, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

human security issues of the people are compromised in conflict zones in Northeast India: •

•

•

The whole region, barring a few states, is exposed to an atmosphere of terror, where a situation of anxiety, helplessness, and a fear of being killed, raped or displaced prevail all around. In addition, the promulgation of nationalist security laws such as the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), the National Security Act (NSA), and the Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act (TADA) — now known as the Prevention of Terrorist Activities Act (POTA) — grants immense power to the security forces. Human rights violations and harassment of civilians in the conflict areas are some common scenes in Northeast India. Moreover, issues that affect the common people at the grassroot level during times of violent conflict — such as conflict-induced displacement, loss of education, human rights violations, trauma, rape, gender inequality (including for single female-headed families), child soldiers, lumpenization of the economy, arms proliferation, drugs, prostitution, extortion, etc. — are blissfully forgotten both by the government and by the insurgent groups who capture state power after signing an accord or agreement with the government. This leads to greater human insecurity in conflict zones. This is aggravated by a “soft state” that is corrupt and has failed to deliver basic developmental needs to its own people. The only means to state legitimacy is governance; in the other words, the Indian government has governed the region miserably. This is

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the single most important factor impacting the insecurity of the common people, as our analysis on the basis of our field survey reveals. The opinion of the people at the grassroot level is always taken for granted. Even in the peace negotiations with various insurgent outfits, there is no effort to involve civil society groups, be it on the part of the insurgent outfits or on the part of the government. An accordcentric peace with an exclusive social group will not bring about a durable peace process in the region.

Objectives and Research Questions Human security is about perceptions as well as realities. Perceived threats can trigger interstate wars, violent civil conflicts and political repression. Furthermore, governments sometimes play on people’s fears and exaggerate threats to provide political justification for repression. In a situation like that of Northeast India, it would be interesting to examine the extent of people’s fears about physical safety. How do these fears relate to objective risks? This research aims to answer the following questions: • • • • • • • • •

Do civilians perceive any threat during armed violence? How have violence and killings affected their lives? What is the nature of such insecurity, or in what way do they feel insecure? What are the sources of insecurity? How do the civilians cope with fear and insecurity? How do they respond to conflict? Are some people more vulnerable than others? If so, which groups of people are more vulnerable in conflict situations? How does the government respond to the insecurity of the people? How are their grievances addressed? What, according to the people, would enhance people’s security or peace in the region?

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Our report addresses the following human security issues: • • • • •

Deaths and injuries from insurgency and armed conflict; Types of insecurity of people in conflict situations; The nature of insecurity of various groups in the northeast region; Sources of insecurity (military, militancy and/or the sociopolitical system); and People’s perception of peace and security.

Methodology Northeast India, which has been witnessing protracted conflicts for the last four or five decades, is conspicuous by the absence of any such “bottom-up” perspectives. The one that we are proposing here is the first of its kind that shall objectively make an attempt to assess the human security scenario in the region. In order to move from the conceptual to the empirical domain, we would like to combine qualitative and quantitative research. As noted above, human security is about perceptions as well as realities. In environments where people have adapted their behavior to the level of threat, focusing exclusively on the incidence of violent acts can misrepresent the degree of risk. Declining crime rates, for example, may be the result of more people staying off the streets after nightfall rather than a real decrease in the risk of being attacked. It is this subjective experience of fear and insecurity that urgently requires substantial investigation and a better understanding. Perceived threats can trigger interstate and intrastate violent conflicts. Governments also sometimes play on people’s fears and exaggerate or fabricate threats in order to provide political justification for repression and other draconian laws that violate human rights and dignity. In order to better understand the subjective experiences of people living in conflict zones, we asked civilians how they cope with insecurity and sought to understand how they manage their lives. We selected some basic human security questions which are assumed to be fundamental to their day-to-day lives. The purpose

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of the present study was to ascertain people’s views on the situation that they have been confronting for decades, and the ways out that they perceive as important to resolve the situation. A comprehensive questionnaire for the said purpose was developed, and trained investigators were sent to the field to reach out to the voices of the people. The field survey was carried out in three states in Northeast India — namely Assam, Manipur and Nagaland — as these three states represent the multi-dimensional nature of conflict in the region. Within the three states, a few districts were selected on the basis of the intensity of conflict experienced in the respective states (see Table 2). Within the districts, a few blocks were randomly selected so as to represent varied categories of people across localities, genders, ages, castes, religions and levels of education and income. Table 2.

Data generated through field survey: number and nature of respondents. State

District name Kokrajhar Tinsukia Karbi Anglong Nalbari Churachandpur Imphal East Imphal West Senapati Kohima Dimapur Phek Wokha Tuensang Longleng Mokokchung Entered from Nagaland (State Manipur) Total

Assam

Manipur

Nagaland

120 357 352 231 249 200 62 271 186 249 248 7 7 2 7 4 1,060

786

706

Total 120 357 352 231 249 200 62 271 186 249 248 7 7 2 7 4 2,552

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The sample of respondents in Table 2 represents different categories of people across locality, gender, age, caste, religion, educational and income categories. In terms of locality, village (rural) areas are given greater priority over the town (urban) areas; this is in conformity with the demographic composition of the society in Northeast India. Out of the total sample selected, 82.2% are from villages and 17.2% are from towns. In the case of Nagaland, however, the division is a little different as 68% are from villages and 32% are from towns. With respect to gender, the representation of men is higher than that of women (66% and 34%, respectively). In terms of age, the sample represents an almost equal proportion of people from different age categories: 18–25 years (27.3%), 26–35 years (29.6%), 36–45 years (23.3%), and 46 years and above (19.9%). In the case of caste representation, STs constitute the highest proportion at 64.2% (in Nagaland, STs represent 95% of total respondents), followed by Other Backward Classes (OBCs) at 21.6% (the highest representation within this category is from Assam with 32.7%), Upper Castes (11.2%) and SCs (3.0%). In the case of representation of religion, Christians constitute the highest proportion at 50.5% (95% and 67.1% of respondents from Nagaland and Manipur, respectively, are Christians), followed by Hindus at 43.5% (87.5% of respondents from Assam are Hindus), Muslims (1.6%), Buddhists (0.9%), Sikhs (0.3%) and any other religion (3.1%). In terms of educational categories, the sample represents an almost equal proportion of people: those obtaining a middle-class education (29.0%), matriculation (36.7%), and undergraduate degree and above (34.3%). In the case of (monthly) income, the middle-income category of Rs. 2,001–5,000 represents the highest proportion of the income categories (35.6%), followed by the income categories of Rs. 5,001–10,000 (28.1%), Rs. 1,001–2,000 (15.6%), Rs. 10,001 and above (11.4%) and up to Rs. 1,000 (9.3%). The criteria for selecting the districts were essentially as follows: 1. The level of violence in these districts is relatively higher than in other districts. 2. These districts reflect a mixed population pattern of both tribal and non-tribal, migrant and indigenous people.

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3. These districts reflect a very high level of ethnic polarization while trying to assert their identity, leading to displacement and interethnic violent clashes. 4. Most of the districts are bordering foreign countries. 5. Incidentally, these districts do not have a high level of human security. Regarding Manipur, our state coordinator Dr. Mangi Singh had this to say about the process of district selection: I decided to go for four districts. The valley districts wherefrom we had to select plainsmen as our respondents do not have many blocks. Of the two districts in Imphal, Imphal East has three and Imphal West has two. I decided to take two blocks only from Imphal East, as the third, i.e. Jiri Block, is separated from the rest of the valley by more than 200 km and lies across the hills. About the hills, the idea was to get respondents from the two major groups of people — the Nagas and the Kuki-Chin-Mizo people. For the Nagas, I decided on three Naga-dominated blocks of Senapati District, viz. Paomata, Purul and Tadubi. Ukhrul was avoided in view of the prevailing misgivings which researchers have about conducting surveys there. Tamenglong was also avoided because of the more backward means of transport and communication problems there. As for the Kuki-Chin-Mizo-inhabited areas, Churachandpur was the obvious choice as it is predominantly inhabited by them. About the villages from each block, we decided there were no hard and fast rules on the number of villages wherefrom respondents were to be contacted. The only thing was that we should take different localities, not confine ourselves to any particular locality.

A comprehensive questionnaire was used for the survey. However, for analytical purposes, a few select questions were used towards understanding people’s perception on the multi-dimensional conflict situation in Northeast India (see Table 3).

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Human Security Mapping in Conflict Zones: The Case of Northeast India Table 3.

No. 1

Survey questions used in analysis.

Issues addressed

2

Nature and representational character of the samples Insurgency and insecurity

3

Military and insecurity

4

Comparison between armed groups and security forces in terms of threat perception Sources of insecurity apart from military and militancy Causes of insurgency Sustenance of insurgency Variation in vulnerability across different categories

5

6 7 8

9 10 11

69

Mechanisms for coping with insecurity Perceptions of peace by people Threat from transnational sources

Questions taken for analysis Background data (B1–B7) Q1, 3, 4a–4f, 7, 13–15 Q7, 8, 8a, 10, 11a–11f

Remarks

For state reports, Q11a–11f were also analyzed

Q17, 18, 21, 22, 31

Q30a–30j, 44, 45

Q29a–29j Q12 Q4, 11a–11f, 18 (across gender, religion, caste and income categories) Q5, 6, 28a–28f Q34–36, 46, 52 Q47–50

To be sure, there were some difficulties in our research process: 1. The time was too short. It was extremely difficult to maintain the deadline as there were communication problems in hilly areas, where it was impossible to interview more than five people per day. We had to engage many data collectors to save time. 2. There were frequent “bandhs”, which hampered our work and communication with the coordinators and data collectors.

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3. Underground groups in Nagaland and Manipur wanted to verify the questionnaire, but their request was denied. 4. People were somewhat skeptical about such research and whether it would make any difference to their day-to-day lives. Our state coordinator had this to say about Manipur: The investigators had difficulties convincing the people about the purpose of the survey, both in valleys as well as in the hills. It was all the more so in the hills. In many cases, they were treated with outright suspicion. Some of them came across unwanted elements in the form of underground members who asked the investigators questions about the purpose of the survey. Some people were not cooperative at all, saying that they had experienced such surveys earlier but no benefit came to them. Then there were questions about clashes and displacement. Some respondents who had experienced clashes wondered if the survey would benefit them by way of bringing just compensation for their losses and suffering, including houses burnt, family members killed, villages abandoned, etc. Thank God there were otherwise no untoward incidents, and my investigators completed the survey in time.

Limitations We can claim a very high level of statistical accuracy. There is very little scope for error, as we took great care in entering data. The data analysis was carried out by a well-developed package called Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). The greatest strength of this package is that one can verify even the minutest of information (including the name, age and level of education of each respondent), cross-verify data, tabulate it, cross-tabulate it or put it in any statistical form. It is one of the most widely available and powerful statistical software packages. It covers a broad range of statistical procedures that allows one to summarize data (e.g. computation of the mean and standard deviation), determine whether there are significant

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differences between groups (e.g. t-test, analysis of variance), examine relationships among variables (e.g. correlation, multiple regression) and graph results (e.g. bar charts, line graphs). Nonetheless, we believe that our findings need to be further checked and verified by a more participative assessment when visiting the areas under study. This would help us in gaining a better insight into the issues.

Findings The overwhelming presence of insurgency causes grave insecurity to the common people All of the three states in Northeast India surveyed for the present study indicate that the overwhelming presence of insurgency causes grave insecurity to the common masses (Table 4). As many as 90% of respondents reported that their localities have been affected by insurgency. There is negligible variation among the three states in this regard. At the personal level, 67.1% of the respondents reported that they have been affected by insurgency. In the case of Manipur, as many as 83.9% of respondents reported that their personal lives have been affected by insurgency. Also, 39.8% of the respondents reported that armed/insurgent groups have sought shelter in their houses; in Manipur, 50.1% of respondents have had such an experience. Among those respondents who were approached for shelter, 31.6% have provided shelter to the armed groups. In the case of

Table 4.

Yes No Don’t know

Villages/towns affected by insurgency.

Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

92.5 6.3 1.2 100.0

84.9 12.0 3.2 100.0

91.9 7.9 0.1 100.0

90.0 8.5 1.5 100.0

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Manipur and Nagaland, 52.3% and 53.6%, respectively, reported that they have provided shelter to the insurgent groups. However, most of those who provided shelter did not do it voluntarily, but rather were forced to do so. Only 7.5% of respondents reported that they did it voluntarily (although, in the case of Nagaland, the figure stood at 23.2%); about 58.0% of respondents gave no opinion on it; while 33.7% of respondents reported that they did it under force (in Manipur, as many as 82.6% of those who provided shelter were forced to do so). Insurgency has also impacted upon the lives of the people in their day-to-day activities like normal movement, going to the workplace, sending children to school, movement of women, etc. (Table 5). The greatest impact has been to force people to live in fear, anxiety and suspicion. Altogether, 66.9% of the people reported that they have been forced to live in such an environment. In the case of Manipur and Nagaland, 87.8% and 79.8%, respectively, reported that they have been forced to live in a state of fear, anxiety and suspicion. Out of the total respondents, only 6.2% reported that they had lived in relief camps due to insurgency. This figure was relatively higher in Manipur (10.9%) and relatively lower in Assam (2.9%). However, in some pockets in Assam, particularly in the district of Kokrajhar, there has been huge displacement due to inter-ethnic clashes between the Bodos and the Santhals, forcing thousands of Santhals to live in relief camps for years.

Table 5.

Effect of insurgency on different normal activities of the common people.

Nature of activity Normal movement Going to the workplace Sending children to school Movement of women Forced to change occupation Compelled to live in anxiety

Assam (%) Manipur (%) Nagaland (%) 38.9 35.1 37.9 30.9 20.4 50.0

78.8 46.5 34.1 54.4 26.8 87.8

71.7 39.2 32.9 47.1 18.6 79.8

Total (%) 56.9 39.2 35.8 40.9 21.9 66.9

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The presence of the military is also a cause of insecurity to the common people In Northeast India, there has been a huge presence of the military across the states, particularly in Assam, Manipur and Nagaland, under the pretext of controlling insurgency. However, instead of bringing security, such a presence has added insecurity to the common people. All of the three states surveyed reported that military operations have taken place and that respondents’ houses have also been raided. About 65.2% of total respondents from the three states reported such military operations in their localities. In the case of Assam and Manipur, 72.1% and 68.7%, respectively, reported such operations in their localities. Out of those who reported military operations in their respective areas, 42.8% reported that their houses have also been raided. In the case of Manipur and Nagaland, 52.5% and 54.0%, respectively, reported such raids by the military. Among those who reported raids at their houses, only 1.8% reported that they were comfortable when the raid was carried out, whereas 62.3% reported that they were uncomfortable with it (40.5% reported to have felt very uncomfortable and 21.8% reported that they were somewhat uncomfortable). Approximately 57.9% of the total respondents reported that there were military camps located close to their villages/towns. In the case of Manipur, as many as 70.7% of respondents reported the presence of military camps in their surroundings. Of those who reported the presence of military camps in their surroundings, 37.9% said that such a presence has affected their lives. As shown in Table 6, 58.2% and 53.4% of respondents from Manipur and Nagaland, respectively, reported that their normal movements at day and night have been affected by the presence of the military camps. About 62.2% of respondents from Manipur and 71.7% from Nagaland also reported that their movements after dark have been affected by such a presence. In addition, a high percentage of the population (54.7% in Manipur and 53.2% in Nagaland) reported that they have experienced continuous frisking, harassment and use of foul language by the military.

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Table 6. Effect of the presence of military camps on the normal activities of the common people. Nature of activities affected Movement both day and night Movement after dark Going to the workplace Sending children to school Movement of women Continuous frisking, harassment and use of foul language

Table 7.

Assam (%) Manipur (%) Nagaland (%) Total (%) 7.6 28.2 8.6 8.8 19.0 22.9

58.2 62.2 30.8 22.8 49.9 54.7

53.4 71.7 39.7 30.5 56.1 53.2

26.0 42.0 17.8 14.9 31.2 34.6

Are people more afraid of armed groups or security forces? Assam (%) Manipur (%) Nagaland (%)

Afraid of armed groups Afraid of security forces More afraid of security forces than armed groups More afraid of armed groups than security forces Equally afraid of both Don’t know No opinion

Total (%)

28.7 4.8 7.5

18.1 6.0 10.1

29.8 5.9 6.9

25.8 5.5 8.1

26.5

9.3

12.8

17.5

31.4

51.5 1.7 3.4 100.0

35.0 2.6 7.1 100.0

38.5 1.2 3.4 100.0

1.0 100.0

Armed groups are perceived as being more threatening than the security forces It is evident from the above analysis that both armed groups and security forces have been a cause of insecurity for the common people. However, cross-verification reveals that people are more afraid of the armed groups than the security forces (Table 7). To be sure, a very high percentage of respondents revealed that they were equally afraid of both armed groups and security forces. Nevertheless, the respondents clearly reported that, in comparison, insecurity comes more from armed groups than from security forces.

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Human Security Mapping in Conflict Zones: The Case of Northeast India Table 8.

Very safe Somewhat safe Somewhat unsafe Very unsafe

75

Overall safety perception of the people.

Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

4.3 70.5 24.3 0.8 100.0

23.5 51.0 16.9 8.6 100.0

25.8 55.7 15.1 3.4 100.0

16.1 60.4 19.5 3.9 100.0

Despite the threats that people are confronted with, they do not perceive their situation to be very unsafe (Table 8). Only 3.9% of respondents revealed that they felt very unsafe. On the other hand, they did not feel very safe either. About 60.4% of respondents revealed that they felt somewhat safe. In Assam, a much lower percentage of the population (4.3%) perceived their situation to be very safe, compared to Manipur (23.5%) and Nagaland (25.8%). So, given a chance, only 20.9% of the respondents would leave their villages/towns, with another 7.7% remaining indecisive in this regard; however, 71.4% of the respondents would continue to live in their villages/towns. Among those leaving, a higher percentage of the population (16.3%) would leave due to environmental insecurity. In the case of Manipur, as many as 47.1% of respondents reported that, given a chance, they would leave their houses due to environmental insecurity. Between armed groups and security forces in Manipur, it was reported that a relatively higher percentage of the population (7.4%) would leave their houses because of armed groups rather than because of security forces (5.9%). But in Nagaland, the responses were in the opposite direction (16.1% because of armed groups and 22.6% because of security forces). As shown in Table 9, people in the region feel more threatened by the violence posed by armed groups (53.9%) than by security forces (16.6%). In the case of Assam and Nagaland, the armed groups caused 61.0% and 70.2% of insecurity, respectively, to the people. However, in Manipur, 42.6% of the people felt insecure because of the lack of basic facilities (like food and health) provided for its people. Their perceived insecurity from security forces was also relatively high compared to other states, at 27.9%.

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Nani G. Mahanta Table 9. What causes the most insecurity to the common people?

Lack of basic facilities like food, housing, etc. Violence by armed groups Violence by security forces

Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

25.7

42.6

20.6

29.5

61.0 13.3 100.0

29.5 27.9 100.0

70.2 9.1 100.0

53.9 16.6 100.0

Apart from the military and militancy, corruption is the greatest source of insecurity In Northeast India, the issue of security from military and insurgency threats has obsessed policy analysts and researchers to the extent that day-to-day security issues have been virtually neglected. However, according to the UNDP human security paradigm, the issues of food, health, water, etc. are priority issues that should be taken up in the process of governance, while simultaneously dealing with the issues of tackling militancy and achieving internal security. Together, both of these perspectives invite a balanced approach so that one perspective is not pursued at the expense of the other. In the case of Northeast India, internal security has been such a priority for the Indian government that people’s day-to-day security has been virtually pushed to the periphery. Thus, ascertaining people’s perception of their day-to-day security assumes a great deal of significance towards mapping human security in this conflict-ridden zone. Table 10 shows the relative importance of non-military insecurity indicators in Northeast India. For the three states surveyed, a total of 30.5% of the respondents revealed that they felt insecure due to the lack of sufficient food, with Manipur having the highest percentage at 52.1%. Job insecurity accounted for 54.1% of insecurity in general; this factor was most important in Manipur (72.7%), followed by Assam (50.0%) and Nagaland (39.5%). About 48.2% of the respondents revealed that they were suffering from medical insecurity; the percentage was relatively lower in Nagaland (22.3%), but higher in both Assam (58.3%) and Manipur (63.5%). Most importantly, the

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Human Security Mapping in Conflict Zones: The Case of Northeast India Table 10. Insecurity indicators Food insecurity Job insecurity Health insecurity Peer group/Family insecurity Water insecurity (contamination) Insecurity from theft and dacoity Natural insecurity (drought, flood) Insecurity due to bank erosion Insecurity due to environmental pollution Insecurity due to corruption in public offices

77

Non-military insecurity indicators. Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

28.3 50.0 58.3 8.4 24.0

52.1 72.7 63.5 34.5 28.4

9.3 39.5 22.3 8.3 10.6

30.5 54.1 48.2 16.4 21.7

26.8

39.8

18.2

28.5

23.8

32.3

10.8

22.9

10.2

24.9

16.9

16.6

31.6

48.3

50.9

42.0

81.7

89.3

83.1

84.4

single most significant factor identified as a source of insecurity was corruption in public offices. The level of corruption was highest in Manipur, at almost 90%; in the other states of Assam and Nagaland, the figure stood at 81.7% and 83.1%, respectively. These factors which cause insecurity act as a very fertile ground for unemployed youth to take up arms against the government. Indeed, a number of studies have confirmed a relationship between insurgency and insecurity caused by a lack of food, employment opportunities or health provision.

Despite the prevalence of voluntary groups, most people remain helpless in dealing with insecurity How do civilians respond to the challenges posed by the militants? That is, how do they respond to the insecurity caused by the militancy? It is clear from the data in Table 11 that the formation of

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Mechanisms for coping with fear and insecurity.

Different means of coping with insecurity Forming voluntary groups Approaching police immediately Male civilians taking shelter elsewhere at night Fighting out the militancy Remaining helpless

Assam (%) Manipur (%) Nagaland (%) Total (%) 49.2 59.3 14.6

64.8 20.1 19.6

60.0 42.2 15.6

56.7 43.0 16.4

2.6 60.6

14.1 57.3

29.4 43.4

12.7 55.3

voluntary groups by civil society plays a prominent role in Manipur (64.8%) and Nagaland (60%). The Naga Hoho, Naga Mothers’ Association, Naga Students’ Federation and Nagaland Baptist Church play a pivotal role in addressing the insecurity of the common people in Nagaland; while the Apunba Lup and Meira Paibi are some of the voluntary groups in Manipur that play a proactive role in protecting civilians from the violation of human rights by both armed groups and state security forces. For example, these women’s groups in Manipur protect vulnerable villages by holding torch processions at night. However, a substantial portion (55.3%) of people in Northeast India remain helpless when faced with violence and counter-violence. Insurgency is caused and sustained by a variety of factors We gave people ten options to choose from as factors responsible for the growth of insurgency in the region (Table 12). The three factors most cited by the people were as follows: • • •

Unemployment (87.1%); Corruption and nepotism in public offices (81.9%); and Poverty and lack of basic facilities (79.7%).

The above factors also constituted the three most important factors responsible for the growth of insurgency in Nagaland and

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79

People’s perception of the causes of insurgency in Northeast India.

Causes behind insurgency Unemployment Poverty and lack of basic facilities Corruption and nepotism in government offices Exploitative policies of the Indian government Involvement of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Weak policies to control insurgency Overall social insecurity Military operations High-handedness of security forces Ethnic movements

Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

86.0 74.5

85.0 83.2

90.9 83.6

87.1 79.7

80.3

83.6

82.3

81.9

82.4

67.5

66.2

73.4

52.7

22.8

37.6

39.4

68.0

67.8

60.9

66.0

64.2 36.7 41.6

54.9 46.2 54.4

50.1 40.4 34.4

57.5 40.6 43.6

93.7

62.0

51.8

72.5

Manipur. However, in the case of Assam, the following factors were perceived as being most responsible for insurgency in the state: • • • •

Ethnic movements (93.7%); Unemployment (86.0%); Exploitative policies of the central government (82.4%); and Corruption and nepotism in government offices (80.3%).

In the case of Assam, there was a strong perception (85.8%) that insurgency is receiving foreign patronage (Table 13). This is hardly surprising as, in recent times, Assamese newspapers and prominent organizations have accused the ULFA of setting up a base in Bangladesh. The Assamese elite consider Bangladesh responsible for continuous illegal migration to the region, which poses a large threat to the Assamese composite identity. It is believed that the ULFA, in collusion with Bangladesh’s Directorate

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Nani G. Mahanta Table 13.

Sustenance of insurgency in Northeast India.

Factors Patronage from the common people Patronage from foreign countries Due to its own strength Failure of the government to control

Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

47.8

36.6

29.9

39.8

85.8

33.3

32.5

56.1

61.8 67.4

52.9 77.1

49.4 62.1

55.9 69.0

Table 14. Gender variation in the effect of insurgency on normal activities of the common people (Q3, 4a–4f of questionnaire). Nature of activity Personal life Normal movement Going to the workplace Sending children to school Movement of women Forced to change occupation Compelled to live in anxiety

Male (%)

Female (%)

Total (%)

69.2 58.6 40.4 36.5 41.4 21.6 69.1

62.9 53.6 36.7 34.5 39.7 22.5 62.5

67.1 56.9 39.2 35.8 40.8 21.9 66.9

General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), is planning for bigger strikes in Assam.

The vulnerability to insecurity differs across different categories of people The vulnerability to insecurity varies across different categories of gender, caste and income (Tables 14–19). Government policies fail to provide security How does the government derive legitimacy in the society? Its most acceptable form of authority is primarily through governance.

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Table 15. Caste variation in the effect of insurgency on normal activities of the common people (Q3, 4a–4f of questionnaire). Nature of activity Personal life Normal movement Going to the workplace Sending children to school Movement of women Forced to change occupation Compelled to live in anxiety

ST

SC

OBC

Upper Caste

Total

67.5 70.2 46.0 41.0 50.2 23.1 70.4

65.3 35.1 25.7 31.1 25.7 9.5 59.5

69.9 41.4 30.7 30.5 27.9 21.9 66.5

60.4 37.8 31.1 26.1 31.1 20.1 54.8

67.1 56.9 39.2 35.8 40.8 21.9 66.9

Table 16. Income variation in the effect of insurgency on normal activities of the common people (Q3, 4a–4f of questionnaire).

Nature of activity Personal life Normal movement Going to the workplace Sending children to school Movement of women Forced to change occupation Compelled to live in anxiety

Table 17. people.

Up to Rs. 1,001– Rs. 2,001– Rs. 5,001– Rs. 10,001 Rs. 1,000 2,000 5,000 10,000 and Total (%) (%) (%) (%) above (%) (%) 58.4 74.4 53.4 47.0

74.8 66.7 50.9 46.5

69.7 54.9 39.8 37.1

65.6 55.5 35.7 30.1

56.8 42.4 19.9 22.9

66.9 56.8 39.0 35.6

50.8 31.1

46.5 43.4

41.7 18.2

37.4 17.0

31.6 9.9

40.7 21.7

76.1

70.2

64.8

68.0

60.4

66.8

Gender variation in what causes the most insecurity to the common

Lack of basic facilities like food, housing, etc. Violence by armed groups Violence by security forces

Male (%)

Female (%)

Total (%)

31.5 54.2 14.4 100.0

25.4 53.5 21.1 100.0

29.4 53.9 16.7 100.0

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Table 18. people.

Caste variation in what causes the most insecurity to the common

ST (%) SC (%) OBC (%) Upper Caste (%) Total (%) Lack of basic facilities like food, housing, etc. Violence by armed groups Violence by security forces

Table 19. people.

31.0

19.5

25.6

30.6

29.4

57.3 72.7 11.7 7.8 100.0 100.0

40.2 34.2 100.0

56.0 13.4 100.0

53.9 16.7 100.0

Income variation in what causes the most insecurity to the common

Up to Rs. 1,001– Rs. 2,001– Rs. 5,001– Rs. 10,001 Rs. 1,000 2,000 5,000 10,000 and (%) (%) (%) (%) above (%) Lack of basic facilities like food, housing, etc. Violence by armed groups Violence by security forces

Total (%)

37.7

35.1

33.7

19.4

23.3

29.0

43.0

47.2

56.7

58.3

55.1

54.2

19.3

17.8

9.7

22.4

21.6

16.7

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

However, the inability of the government to deliver basic services to the people is said to be one of the most important factors behind the growth of militancy in Northeast India. Huge amounts of money, meant for delivering services to the people, are siphoned off. Sanjoy Hazarika, a noted scholar and journalist on Northeast India, commented: There are varying estimates for the amount of money which has been invested or spent in the North-east by various Central government departments over the past 50 years, and especially in the last decade. This is estimated to run into tens of thousands of crores; one credible figure says Rs. 40,000 crores (Rs. 400 million). . . . There are no

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markers for transparency or accountability in government projects. Some states like Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Mizoram are cited for their lack of accountability and poor financial management. This is not my view — it is to be found in the detailed statement of the office of the Comptroller-General of Audit and Accounts in its annual report which tears the veil off the cover-ups by the state governments and the wholesale loot of funds. Not one state comes out looking good. [Hazarika, 2004]

India’s Public Distribution System (PDS), National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) and National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) — which requires the provision of a minimum of 100 days’ work to the unemployed in rural areas — are some of the important welfare measures set up by the government to ensure food and health security in rural areas. However, Table 20 shows that the implementation of these policies is far from satisfactory. Only 16.7% of respondents claimed to have benefited from the much-hyped NREGA. The performance of these schemes was found to be abysmally poor in Manipur and Nagaland. People perceive a variety of measures for achieving peace It is clear from Table 21 that people across all states want a negotiated settlement of the vexed insurgency issue in the region. Approximately 73.6% of the total respondents called for a continuous peace dialogue with the insurgent groups, whereas only 16.4% suggested suppressing Table 20.

Degree of success in reaching out to the people through new policies.

Policies Benefits Benefits Benefits Benefits

from from from from

PDS NRHM NREGA RTI Act

Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

64.1 46.5 22.9 12.2

51.3 20.0 14.2 10.5

31.9 16.2 9.6 15.0

51.4 30.2 16.7 12.4

Note: PDS, Public Distribution System; NRHM, National Rural Health Mission; NREGA, National Rural Employment Guarantee Act; RTI, Right to Information.

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Table 21.

People’s perception of measures for achieving peace in Northeast India. Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

Whether to negotiate with or suppress insurgents Negotiate with insurgents Suppress insurgents

70.7 20.0

73.7 15.8

77.8 11.6

73.6 16.4

Whether to scrap or continue with the TADA/AFSPA Scrap the TADA/AFSPA Continue with the TADA/AFSPA

31.9 26.6

53.0 18.7

44.5 22.2

41.8 23.0

29.0

24.6

7.4

21.7

68.4

62.3

79.4

69.6

How to achieve peace

Whether the government should solve the insurgency problem alone or by involving the greater society The government should solve the insurgency problem alone The government should solve the insurgency problem by involving the greater society

the insurgents. Most people are also in favor of scrapping the AFSPA, which has caused substantial human rights violations, especially in states like Manipur. Furthermore, 69.6% of respondents believed that the government should involve civil society in resolving insurgency in the region. As argued earlier, the peace-building process in the region is generally restricted between two actors: the government and the militants. The third actor — the broad civil society — is hardly represented in the peace-building process. Among the different approaches for achieving peace, most people prefer having a constant peace dialogue Out of the various approaches for bringing about peace in the region, the most preferred approach is for the government (and civil society) to engage in a constant peace dialogue with insurgent groups (Table 22).

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Table 22. People’s perception of the preferred approach to bring about peace in Northeast India. Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

Granting independence to all ethnic communities First preference Second preference Third preference

13.8 33.8 27.9

29.4 18.1 36.2

21.2 31.3 25.0

20.6 28.3 29.6

Granting full autonomy to all ethnic communities First preference Second preference Third preference

29.3 37.7 23.0

34.6 32.2 22.6

15.9 41.3 21.2

27.2 37.1 22.4

Strengthening military power First preference Second preference Third preference

33.2 43.0 14.0

10.6 14.5 38.3

19.6 18.7 29.3

22.7 27.8 25.4

Constant peace dialogue First preference Second preference Third preference

59.1 24.0 9.0

66.1 13.6 12.2

80.2 7.0 4.9

67.0 16.2 8.8

Approaches

Note: The “don’t know” category is not shown in the table.

“Bandhs” are another source of insecurity In Northeast India, road blockades or “bandhs” have become an endemic issue for all of the states. A bandh can be defined as a device resorted to by political parties, organizations and unions to focus people’s attention on a particular issue by disrupting their normal lives, for example, by closing down shops, banks, etc. Various insurgent groups, political parties, innumerable trade unions, and different student associations and women’s groups summon bandhs as a means of airing their grievances, in order to push their charter of demands to the federal and state governments. Bandhs are very rampant in the region, and it may not be an exaggeration to say that there is a bandh

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in at least one corner of Northeast India almost everyday. As a consequence, bandhs often paralyze the functioning of government offices, business establishments and banks. The student community as a whole are often innocent victims; and the vast marginalized poor people, who constitute the majority of the population and who live from hand to mouth, are indeed the worst sufferers. Table 23 shows that bandhs have a very adverse effect on people’s lives. It follows, then, that 71% of the total respondents opposed such bandhs or economic blockades by insurgent groups. Almost 80% of people in Assam and 76.4% in Manipur opposed these bandhs (Table 24). It is worthwhile to mention that, out of 2,521 respondents, 2,143 (85%) of them said that they prefer non-violent movements to violent movements. About 90.7% of respondents from Assam, 79.7% from Manipur and 85% from Nagaland supported non-violent methods as a form of protest. This shows that people are becoming increasingly exhausted by the violence in the region. It could go a long way towards removing some of the stereotypes that prevail in the existing thought processes of people from other parts of India, whereby people in the northeast are essentially perceived as being very violent. Table 23.

Food supply Livelihood Emergency situations like medical treatment

Table 24.

Yes No

Effect of bandhs on people’s lives. Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

61.2 65.8 77.6

90.4 87.6 89.8

82.9 67.4 69.6

75.1 73.1 79.8

People’s support for bandhs as a form of protest.

Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

18.1 79.9

17.1 76.4

31.9 51.4

21.6 71.0

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People perceive the possession of arms by civilians and drugs as transnational security threats It is quite intriguing that 66% of respondents were aware about the possession of small arms by civilians. Assam tops the list, with 74% of respondents expressing their knowledge of the possession of arms by civilians (Table 25). With respect to where these arms come from, 35.1% of respondents believed that they were supplied by arms dealer rackets, 18.9% believed that they came from armed groups, and 14.6% believed that a foreign country was involved. In addition, an overwhelming percentage of respondents were aware that drugs have become a big problem in the region (Table 26). About 51.4% of respondents believed that they were supplied by drug dealers, while 24% believed that they came from foreign countries. Contribution of Our Study: Providing a Critique to the Existing Literature When assessing threats to security, policy makers and governments often ignore the views of those directly threatened. Although it is imperative that government policy should be informed by the concerns and priorities of individuals at risk, “bottom-up” perspectives Table 25.

Yes No

People’s awareness about the possession of small arms by civilians.

Assam (%)

Manipur (%)

Nagaland (%)

Total (%)

74.0 12.7

54.6 17.6

66.3 12.5

66.0 14.1

Table 26. People’s awareness about the drug problem in Northeast India.

Yes No

No. of respondents

Percent

Valid percent

2,286 95

89.6 3.7

90.2 3.8

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are notably absent from the agenda. As stated in the Human Security Report 2005, “While objective data on battle death tolls are available, when it comes to measuring fear there is dearth of good research. This is hardly surprising. Usually the purview of small elite, security policy has long been a top down exercise that more often than not reflects the priorities of governments rather than those of their citizens” (Human Security Centre, 2005, p. 19). Democratic accountability should be sufficient reason for taking people’s security fears seriously. Individuals have the right to participate in decisions that fundamentally affect the safety of the communities they live in. The policies in Northeast India seem to focus more on the containment of violence by policies of counter-violence. Here, the focus of the state is on statistical violence (the number of people being killed, kidnapped, etc.). A decreasing number of deaths, according to the state, is reflective of a peaceful era. However, in environments where people have adapted their behavior to the level of threat, focusing exclusively on the incidence of violent acts may misrepresent the degree of risk. As our findings have shown, the majority of people in the conflict zones of Northeast India live in extreme fear and anxiety, and this situation has affected their day-to-day lives. What makes Northeast India perpetually under the garb of terrorism and insurgency? There are three types of responses by writers on this issue: •

•

•

Most of the writings give centrality to the identity problem. In this context, Northeast India is the victim of a defective statebuilding process in which issues of ethnicity (the distinctiveness of ethnic groups) have been neglected, leading to alienation. The second kind of response provides a historical role to insurgency. According to this view, violent groups like the ULFA have raised some historically justified questions against the postcolonial Republic of India. The third kind of response is typically statist, branding insurgency as nothing but criminal activities promoted by neighboring countries.

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Major Trends in the Study of Terrorism in Northeast India There are basically three major trends for studying terrorism in Northeast India. The discussion below focuses on the ULFA as an example. The first trend is a statist security school of thought, as represented by the writings in the journal Faultlines (published by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM)). To this can be added the views of government policy makers. The writings in the journal are very benign to the role of security forces in Northeast India; in contrast, insurgency groups are portrayed as a bunch of misguided youths who have made insurgency a profitable industry.3 Government propaganda manuals also express a statist view of the ULFA in terms of its manifestations and activities. One such widely circulated document asserts: [T]he ULFA was formed by a set of disgruntled persons on April 7, 1979 . . . . While ULFA started its movement on an anti-immigrant plank, it changed course midway. The hostility against the Bangladeshi nationals vanished once the ULFA sought sanctuary in Bangladesh and put all the money that they had extorted into Bangladesh banks. You can’t have your money in another country and also preach a philosophy against the nationals of that country. [Home Ministry, Government of India, 1995]

The same document describes the ULFA’s modus operandi as including “propaganda aimed at embarrassing the elected government”. In addition, Anchal [Ward] Committees with the help of armed cadres carry out extortion, intimidation and abduction for ransom, use coercive influence over the print media to articulate ULFA’s interests, eliminate civilians refusing to toe ULFA’s line and among others 3

For more detail, see Faultlines (New Delhi: ICM–Bulwark Books), particularly volumes 6, 7 and 9.

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detonate explosive devices on roads and culverts, causing the death of innocent people and creating a fear psychosis. [Home Ministry, Government of India, 1995]

The second school of thought, on the other hand, is completely repugnant to the previous school. This school is extremely sympathetic to the violent politics of the ULFA, and it attempts to condone the violent and terrorist activities of the ULFA.4 This school is represented by Professor Samir Das as well as some human rights groups such as the Manab Adhikar Sangram Samiti (MASS), under the leadership of Lachit Bordoloi, advocate Nekibur Jaman and others. The erstwhile vernacular writings of the late Parag Das also belong to this school. Professor Samir Das projects the ULFA and its ideologues as “rare or nearly extinct species of human beings who are in the know of, or better say in the thick of things (for they practice what they profess). . . . [T]hey are the people who in these hard and self seeking days still subscribe to a philosophy of selfless commitment” (1994, Preface). The third school of thought is mainly represented by Professors Udyan Mishra and Sanjib Baruah. This school relates the growth of the ULFA to the defective nation-building process of the Indian government. These scholars are objective in their analysis, but they have failed to provide a critical analysis of the violent discourse of the ULFA. These broad trends in the analysis of subnational politics in Northeast India are not to be treated as water-tight or mutually exclusive categories. Although their contribution in their respective fields cannot be denied, none of these studies have taken into consideration the plight of civilians in conflict zones. Most of these studies are either sympathetic to or opposed to insurgent groups. Other post-colonial studies in the context of Northeast India neglect the issue of people’s security in the conflict zones of the region, focusing mainly on identity issues instead. 4

One such sympathizer gave an interview to the North East Television (NETV) News, Guwahati, on March 10, 2005, saying that the bombings and explosions of the ULFA are crackers of freedom. He, of course, hurriedly added, “That does not mean I support the killing of people.”

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To our knowledge, none of the studies have ever tried to understand the conflict situation in the region from a human security perspective. In this sense, our study could be considered the first of its kind that has attempted an analysis from the human security perspective. We believe that any theory to explain the conflict scenario in the region must be based on a sound empirical basis. As observed in our research, civilians in the region face threats from three quarters: the armed groups, the government and the transnational non-state network. First Source of Threats: The Armed Groups We have observed that people in the region are equally threatened by both the armed groups as well as the government. Armed groups can cause insecurity in various ways: 1. It creates a situation whereby people have to live in constant fear and anxiety. 2. Forcible shelter creates another source of insecurity to civilians. 3. Forcible extortion is yet another source of insecurity to the people. 4. Frequent declarations of bandhs by insurgent groups cause serious disruptions to food supply and communication, both of which are essential to the day-to-day lives of the common people. The majority of the people want insurgent groups to avoid using such tactics. It is interesting to note that 85% of the people interviewed favored non-violent movements to violent movements as an instrument for airing grievances. Second Source of Threats: The Government Insecurity from the government is manifold: 1. Continuous frisking or harassment under the pretext of establishing security actually alienates people. Instead of reinforcing security, such an overwhelming presence of security forces adds insecurity to the common people.

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2. There is a widespread protest against the draconian laws that give impunity to the security forces. Most of the people interviewed called for such laws to be scrapped. 3. Exploitative policies of the central government alienate people in the region. This is particularly true in the case of Assam, where there is a strong perception of exploitation by the central government. People in Assam believe that the resources of the state (e.g. oil, tea and plywood) have been extracted from Assam to benefit other parts of India. 4. The government has failed to protect the people, who live in constant fear and anxiety. 5. The government has failed to provide people with basic socioeconomic security (like food, shelter, employment and health). 6. The government has failed to empower individuals, and has not attempted to resolve the insurgency problem in consultation with the civil society. It has also failed to provide a more peaceful approach for solving the conflict. 7. There is a lack of democracy in Northeast India. The best way for the government to receive habitual obedience is through effective governance, but this process is simply missing in the region. Corruption, nepotism and unemployment are some of the deficiencies highlighted by the people in the region. Democracy refers to the participation and trust of the people, the transparency of the administration, and a democratic and political response to the challenges posed by insurgency. However, the government prefers to respond to challenges by force. Moreover, the prevalent corruption, nepotism, unemployment, etc. serve to provide a fertile ground for the growth of insurgency in the region. Third Source of Threats: The Transnational Non-State Network Threats from transnational sources are essentially of three types: 1. Narcotics and drugs; 2. Proliferation of arms to the region; and

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3. Provision of necessary support and help to the insurgent outfits by Bangladesh and other neighboring countries in the region. Drugs and arms proliferation have increased at an alarming rate in the region. Illicit trafficking of small arms is closely aligned with that of narcotic drugs. Arms are usually exchanged for drugs, which can lead to large profits and can also be used for laundering money and enriching individual fortunes. Northeast India is situated next to Myanmar, which belongs to the “Golden Triangle”, a drug-producing area where 68% of all known illicit opium production and refining takes place. Northeast India has a 1,643-km border with Myanmar, the main source of the opium trade. According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, Myanmar produces 80% of the heroin in Southeast Asia and is responsible for 60% of the world’s supply. Northeast India furnishes trafficking routes for Myanmarese heroin, and many heroin laboratories are located near the border. There are more than 19 trafficking routes between Myanmar and Northeast India. Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland together smuggle at least 20 kg of heroin every day. Intelligence reports reveal that not all of the heroin smuggled into the region is for local consumption. Rather, the bulk of it is sent to different parts of the country for various destinations, including foreign countries like the U.S., Europe and major parts of India. The heroin is sold under different brands, such as “Two Lions and a Globe”, “Double Globe”, “Five Stars” and “Dangerous”. In Manipur, the narcotics trade is referred to as “blood money”. The ring of narco-insurgency has spread its shadow across all seven states of Northeast India. The massive international border — which runs through difficult, porous and changing terrain, and which touches several nations — further complicates the issue. Narcotrafficking and insurgency, coupled with extortion, form a menacing ring that includes politicians, rebel groups and the common people. In fact, each supports the other, and this has become a way of life. The ULFA and the NSCN (first the undivided party and later the Isak–Muivah group) have been instrumental in spreading small arms throughout the northeast as a whole and in Assam in particular, where small arms have spread to the smaller militant outfits and even

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among civilians. Most of the stockpile of these clandestine weapons is still retained by these militant groups. There is no way to ascertain the number of weapons in their possession. It is estimated that the ULFA has a stockpile of not less than 5,000 sophisticated small arms. It has been the only insurgent group in Assam whose presence has been felt across the state, although its stronghold still remains in the Brahmaputra Valley districts of Assam. There is a strong perception, particularly among the people of Assam, that insurgent movements in Assam are supported by Bangladesh and Myanmar. This is primarily due to the fact that the principal insurgent groups in the state like the ULFA have ostensibly taken a pro-immigrant stance, with most of the immigrants coming from Bangladesh. One of the major threats to the Asomiya identity in the state is illegal migration from Bangladesh; hence, people in the state feel highly frustrated when groups like the ULFA take a more pro-immigrant stance. In addition, people believe that the recent killings of Hindi-speaking people (who mainly come from central and northern parts of India) and their forced outmigration from the state are orchestrated by the ULFA at the behest of the intelligence agencies of Bangladesh and Pakistan. Policy Implications and Conclusions The above analysis presents a very dismal picture of the status of the human security situation in Northeast India. In all areas of insecurity, the failure of the government is quite palpable. Hence, the government of Northeast India can at best be described as a “weak state”. A weak state, according to the human security approach, is: … one that can’t uphold the Hobbesian contract for providing not only Security, but also and especially developmental goods and Human Rights imperatives for its own citizens. State weakness is judged not only on the basis of problems that threaten the security of other regions, or the State itself (such as through armed movements or ethnic strife), but conditions that threaten the physical

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integrity, welfare, self-determination and opportunities for citizens. [Tadjbakhsh and Chenoy, 2007]

Government agents are responsible for their actions. They are held accountable for their acts of commission and omission towards social and economic policies which can help in reducing poverty, mitigating the fear of conflict and the violation of human rights (e.g. torture, rape), and initiating and sustaining the developmental process. The government thus has a primary responsibility to provide its citizens both freedom from fear and freedom from want. The government, from the perspective of human security, has three primary responsibilities: • •

•

The primary responsibility is to provide traditional security, prevent threats and protect people from them. The second responsibility is to “provide” — a notion embedded in upholding people’s rights and freedoms as well as delivering on social services in an equitable manner. The third is the responsibility to “empower”. The strength of the government rests in its responsiveness to people and their needs by enhancing people’s ability to act on their own behalf.

In short, the government of Northeast India has to protect, provide and empower. On the basis of our empirical research and field observations with the people, the following policy suggestions can be made. Governance Governance is the most critical issue that needs immediate attention on the part of governments in the region. Critical issues here are as follows: • • •

Unemployment (87.1%); Corruption and nepotism in public offices (81.9%); Poverty and lack of basic facilities (79.7%);

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• • •

Health insecurity (48.2%); Insecurity of people at the hands of the armed groups (53.9%); and Benefits from the RTI Act (12.4%), NREGA (16.7%) and NRHM (30.2%).

These are some areas in which the government has to play a very proactive role. Scrapping of draconian laws and reduced power of security forces As our findings have shown, a substantial portion of the population is threatened by the high-handedness of security forces. Manipur and Nagaland are the two most affected states. Continuous frisking and harassment, restricted movement of people, restrictions on women, and use of foul language are some of the activities by the security forces that needed to be curtailed. In addition, the majority of the population have unequivocally demanded the scrapping of the AFSPA. Peace dialogues People in the region feel more insecure from the armed groups than they do from the security forces. However, when it comes to the resolution process, people want the conflict to be resolved through dialogue and not through repression. This suggests that the Indian government should attach more importance to the resumption of talks with the NSCN, ULFA and other insurgent outfits with whom the level of talks has become bogged down in favor of a forceful settlement. Civil society initiative The government should consider the civil society initiative as a broad process of governance. As our findings have shown, a large section of people have spoken about the involvement of civil society in a larger peace process. The government must remember that people are not

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only passive recipients of security, or even mere victims of its absence, but active subjects who can contribute directly toward identifying and implementing solutions to the security dilemma. For example, the civil society can create awareness against bandhs or economic blockades, which cause serious problems to the security of the common people. Every state in the region should declare bandhs as illegal. A greater South Asian and Southeast Asian destiny Northeast India can no longer afford to keep herself aloof from the socioeconomic and political ties with the South and Southeast Asian countries. For example, a very sizable portion of survey respondents spoke about the wide prevalence of arms and drugs among the people. These are transnational issues which cannot be resolved by a singular approach by the Indian government. Many opposition voices have been heard with regard to the opening up of borders. It has been argued that the opening up of borders will worsen the small arms, insurgency and drug abuse problems in Northeast India. The situation, as has been observed elsewhere, would be much worse (see Mahanta, 2006). At the same time, there are other more circumspect observers who maintain that the reopening of trade routes will boost the economy as well as help in providing a solution to the rebellions in the region. The former Director General of the Indian Border Security Force, E. N. Rammohan, posited, “Roads are the first enemies of insurgents. Denied of a hinterland, he has no place to retreat. Today this is the first step to be taken by the Government of India” (quoted in Fischer, 2005). Decentralization of federal offices in Northeast India The Indian government can decentralize some of its departments so that it can monitor better coordination and ensure good governance in the region. No other region in the country has so many geographical boundaries with foreign countries than that of Northeast India. Indeed, 98% of its boundary is surrounded by China, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Furthermore, this region is the door to

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other South and Southeast Asian countries. Having a branch of the Ministry of External Affairs, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry for the Development of North-eastern Region, Ministry of Home Affairs and Ministry of Tourism in Northeast India can greatly facilitate people’s security in the region. This will also help in furthering the recent “Look East” initiative by the Government of India. Bibliography Baruah, Sanjib (2010). Confronting constructionism: ending the Naga war. In: Sanjib Baruah (ed.), Ethnonationalism in India — A Reader, New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Das, Samir (1994). ULFA: A Political Analysis. New Delhi: Ajanta Publications. Fischer, Carin I. (2005). The Stilwel Road: straight ahead? Himal Southasian, September–October. Available at http://www.himalmag.com/2005/ september/analysis_7.html/. Hazarika, Sanjoy (2004). Governance: approach issues innovatively. Dialogue, 5(4). Home Ministry, Government of India (1995). Bleeding Assam: The Role of the ULFA. New Delhi: Government of India. Human Security Centre, University of British Columbia (2005). Human Security Report 2005. New York: Oxford University Press. Mahanta, Nani G. (2006). Trans-national connection with South and South-east Asian countries: scenario from North-east India. In: Wasbir Hussain (ed.), Order in Chaos, New Delhi: Spectrum Publications, pp. 164–175. Tadjbakhsh, Shahrbanou and Anuradha M. Chenoy (2007). Human Security: Concepts and Implications. London: Routledge.

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Chapter 3

Conflict and Development in the Context of Human Security in Northeast India Dilip Sarma, Madhurjya Prasad Bezbaruah, Geeta Gudihal and Nayan Jyoti Bhuyan

Development–Conflict Nexus Underdevelopment and conflict are said to have a spiraling cause-andeffect relationship with one another, wherein an upward/downward spiral of one is responsible for the enhancement/decline of another. Along the same continuum, conflict is said to slow down or impede the developmental process. In the context of this study, two questions were formulated: • •

Is underdevelopment the root cause of conflict? Does conflict keep the development process at bay?

In attempting to apply these formulations to the largely conflictridden region of Northeast India, a third one emerged: •

Does inequality (or non-participation of a group) caused by the development process itself have a spiraling effect on conflict?

To understand this, conflicts in the three northeastern states of Assam, Manipur and Tripura were explored. 99

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Background Northeast India comprises the seven states of Arunachal, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura (now eight, with the recently added (2007) state of Sikkim). The topography of the region is a brilliant kaleidoscopic mixture of hills and plains with rich biodiversity. Likewise, the population of the region consists of a rich mosaic of different tribes, communities and religious denominations. Besides other ethnic groups, the region is reportedly the homeland of as many as 209 Scheduled Tribes (STs), nearly half the number of communities so categorized in the whole of India (Datta, 1995). Over 400 dialects and languages are spoken in the region. After India gained independence from British rule in 1947, the northeast region — which had three broad administrative units of Manipur and Tripura (“princely states”) and the rest of the region as undivided Assam — was reorganized. However, it took a long time for the existing setup of full-fledged states to emerge. Unfortunately, the successive reorganization of the region has not succeeded in resolving the question of tribal ethnic identity. Instead, the formation of these smaller states has encouraged other ethnic groups to organize themselves in the struggle for demands ranging from more autonomy to separate statehood to complete self-determination. Besides causing frequent disruptions to normal life through agitations, these movements have also contributed directly or indirectly towards the perpetuation of insurgency and bloodshed in the region. Moreover, partition has caused an influx of refugees to the region. The sudden increase in the rate of immigration following partition, and the consequent rise in the rate of growth of the population in the post-independence period, has had several adverse consequences. The subsequent independence and creation of Bangladesh has further exacerbated the influx of migrants, and has remained a contentious issue throughout the region. The events of 1947 have also had a significant impact on the economy of the region. The partition of the country upon independence cut off the region’s approach routes to the rest of the country and the world through East Bengal (now Bangladesh). Consequently,

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the narrow corridor of North Bengal remained the only link between the region and the rest of the country, and the region eventually became burdened with a transport bottleneck and the high cost of movement of man and material to and from it. This in turn has hindered the economic integration of the region with the rest of the country, and has reduced the attractiveness of the region as a destination for investment. Conflict in the region Northeast India has long been the site of violent conflicts1 at various stages of intensity, especially since India’s independence from British rule, with a geographical spread from small pockets of activity to terrorizing entire states. Although militancy in the states of Nagaland and Mizoram started in the 1950s and 1960s, the solidification of militant groups in the conflict-ridden states of the region only came about in the 1970s. Subversive or terror-causing activities have been stepped up since the late 1980s with almost no let-up on violence, especially in the three states under study (i.e. Assam, Manipur and Tripura). At present, the state of Mizoram is in a post-conflict state of peace, while Nagaland is in a state of ceasefire between the militant group(s) and the government. The three states of Arunachal, Meghalaya and Sikkim do not fall within the universally accepted definition of a conflict zone. What are the causes and the sustaining factors behind the conflicts in the three studied states? Table 1 shows the major conflicts in these states, including the genesis of the conflict, the parties to the conflict, the issues of the groups involved and their demands (as per their statements).2 1

The definition and measurement of conflict in this chapter is based on the definitions given by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), available from its database at http://www.pcr.uu.se/database/. 2 The conflicts shown in Table 1 are the major ones in the respective states, effectively affecting the entire state. There are other conflicts simultaneously being waged between different ethnic groups in Manipur and Tripura, and between other militant groups and the government in Assam (these are more localized in geographical coverage, e.g. Karbi Anglong and North Cachar Hills). In this chapter, we will be dealing mainly with these three major conflicts.

April 1979

Parties

• Self-determination • Ιndependent Assam

Demands Recent demands by the ULFA for initiation of peace negotiations: • End or suspension of army operations against its cadres • Release of its top leaders • Information about those cadres captured during “Operation Flush Out” in 2003 • Third-party mediation for peace talks • Holding of talks in world fora like the UN • Discussion on Assam’s sovereignty Declared objective: • Liberation of Assam from India, and establishment of a sovereign and independent Assam (Continued )

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• Indian State • United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)

Issues

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Genesis

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Conflict

The three major conflicts.

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Table 1.

Conflict

Genesis

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Table 1.

(Continued )

Parties

Issues

• Indian State • United National Liberation Front (UNLF) • People’s Liberation Army (PLA) • People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) • Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP)

• • • •

Political instability • Independent Manipur Acute poverty and sovereignty Unemployment Failure to fulfill the Merger promises (Merger Agreement — September 21, 1949) • Feeling of discrimination and neglect of the valley people • Inequitable development of the hill areas

Tripura vs TNV, NLFT and ATTF

1978

• Indian State • Τripura National Volunteers (TNV)

• Large-scale influx of Bengali migrants • Alienation of tribal lands • Unemployment

1989

• Indian State • National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) • All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF)

Declared demands: • Independent Tripura and sovereignty; establishment of an independent Tripura through armed struggle following liberation from Indian neo-colonialism and imperialism and furtherance of a distinct and independent identity

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(Continued )

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Manipur vs. UNLF, PLA, PREPAK and KCP

Demands

Parties

Issues

Demands • Expulsion of all Bengali-speaking immigrant settlers who entered Tripura after 1956 • Restoration of land to tribals under the Tripura Land Revenue and Land Reforms Act 1960 • Removal of names of migrants who entered Tripura after 1956 from the electoral roll

Sources: Nayan Bhuyan, journalist, Asomiya Pratidin; South Asian Terrorism Portal (http://www.satp.org); Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (http://www.ipcs.org).

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Genesis

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Conflict

(Continued )

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Table 1.

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Overview of the three conflicts In the three states studied, the two “permissive conditions” or “underlying causes” (Brown, 1996) behind the start of the conflict were: 1. Large-scale migrant influx from then East Pakistan (and later Bangladesh), creating pressure on land, particularly in Assam and Tripura; and 2. High unemployment, more significantly educated unemployment (among those who received higher education). The ultimate objective of the militant groups in all three states is the establishment of an independent state and sovereignty, with the political power and autonomy in the hands of local, indigenous people. These demands for sovereignty have been reiterated with successively increasing acts of violence and terrorism, sustained by periodic “triggers”. The triggers have invariably been “perceptions” (Druckman, 1994) of unequal economic opportunities and resource distribution manifesting in specific issues/incidents. Underdevelopment–conflict–development process Causal relationships Two questions arise with regard to the causal relationship between underdevelopment and conflict, on the one hand, and conflict and development processes on the other: 1. Is underdevelopment the root cause of conflict? 2. Does conflict keep the development processes at bay? How relevant and applicable is the first question to the three states studied? Table 2 shows certain Human Development Index (HDI) parameters that are regarded as base indicators of development — namely, per capita net state domestic product (NSDP),

Year

Assam

Manipur

Tripura

1970–1971 1975–1976 1980–1981 1985–1986 1990–1991 1995–1996 2000–2001 2003–2004

86.71 92.15 78.77 95.67 85.91 68.98 67.47 69.20

72.62 77.96 87.05 85.05 79.79 67.93 69.54 77.76

74.40 76.37 80.18 74.17 67.63 65.31 96.02 104.43b

Infant Mortality Rate Assam

Manipur

Tripura

Literacy Rate India

Assam

Manipur

Tripura

India

28.10 28.10c NA

38.47 32.90c 49.66

30.98 31.00c 50.10

34.45 29.45c 43.57

52.89

59.89

60.44

52.21

63.25

70.53

73.19

65.20

92

28

82

77

81 76 73 66

24 28 25 30

51 45 49 52

80 74 66 57

Sources: Basic data taken from the Indian Economic Statistics–Public Finance 1991, Ministry of Finance (Economic Division), Government of India, p. 82 for the early years, and from various issues of the Economic Survey of the Government of India for 1980–1981 onwards. a Per capita NSDP at current prices of northeastern states as a percentage of India’s net national product (NNP) per capita at current prices. b The figure pertains to 2002–2003. c The figures pertain to 1977.

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Per Capita NSDPa

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Development indicators for the three states from 1970 to 2004.

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Table 2.

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infant mortality rate and literacy rate — in these three states from the 1970s (when the seeds of the present-day conflict were sown) onwards (five-yearly). The per capita NSDP of Assam in 1975–1976, just prior to the conflict, was 92.15% of India’s per capita NNP. In Manipur it was 77.96%, and in Tripura it was 76.37%. In fact, until the 1960s, Assam’s per capita NSDP was higher than India’s NNP; it is only in the last one-and-a-half decades that Assam’s per capita NSDP has plummeted to all-time lows, ranging from 61% to 69% of India’s NNP. As for the other two indicators of education and health, the three states fared almost at par with the status of India. In fact, in both the literacy rate and infant mortality rate, Manipur and Tripura did better than India as a whole. Thus, although these indicators are not in any way conclusive, they do show that these three states do not reflect a status of underdevelopment (at least within these parameters). In this context, perhaps it would be relevant to understand that underdevelopment appears to have two sets of indicators: one made up of development indices; and the other, perhaps more important in the case of this region, made up of perceptions. Therefore, underdevelopment could be reflected as: • •

•

Underdevelopment per se — the state/region is impoverished in terms of certain selected development parameters; Perceived underdevelopment — the state per se is either at par with or marginally higher/lower than the country on the same developmental indices, but there is a perception of underdevelopment; or Underdevelopment of a particular group in a region — the implementation of faulty policies or certain developmental policies may have accidentally overlooked said communities, and such oversight has been deliberately allowed to flourish (in fact, this could also be a perception).

If one takes a look at the issues and grievances of all the parties in conflict in all three states, the twin issues of migrant influx and unemployment stand out. These appear to have a spiraling and causal effect on one another. Assuming unemployment is taken as an indicator of

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underdevelopment, is it underdevelopment per se or rather a perception of unequal distribution? The nature of the demands of militant groups partially answers this question. Prior to the demand for sovereignty, their objective was not just to stop further influx but to deport earlier migrants, as their fear was that migrants were creating pressure on resources (especially land and offering labor at cheaper rates). However, the majority of salaried jobs are occupied by Indian nationals from other states and not migrants from Bangladesh; after all, the Indian Constitution states that Indian nationals can work in any part of the country. The same is also true to some extent in the case of cheaper labor services. So, the violence is perpetrated not only against migrants from Bangladesh, but also against those from other parts of India. In fact, due to tactical reasons of safe passage and shelter, migrants from Bangladesh have not been attacked in recent times. The fear among militant groups is not of just economic dominance by the migrants, but also political dominance. Hence, the issue of identity has become important to unify the different subgroups within a group and to create homogeneity in order to strengthen their demands. This can perhaps be better understood by taking a closer look at the conflict in Assam. The Assamese agitation was initially led by the All Assam Students Union (AASU) against the government to detect and deport “foreigners” who had migrated after 1951. The agitation manifested itself in demonstrations and attacks against (1) Bengali-speaking Hindus who had migrated post-Partition and were occupying government and other public sector services/jobs; (2) Marwaris (a trader community), who were dominating trade and business; and (3) Bengalispeaking Muslims who had migrated after the creation of Bangladesh in 1971 and were occupying vacant land. During this period, the ULFA, formed in 1979 as a dormant wing of the AASU, was mainly inactive. Following the signing of the Assam Accord and the formation of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) government in 1985, the situation was quiet for a period of 2–3 years. The ULFA began its subversive activities in 1988 when the AGP government failed to meet its expectations. Attacks were intensified and

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continued with periodic ebbs and flows following splits and regrouping of the insurgents. The demand also changed from detecting and deporting foreigners (AASU) to establishing a sovereign Assam (ULFA). In this way, the issue of unemployment has given way to total control over Assam’s economics and politics, i.e. sovereignty. The conflict has interestingly subverted itself into a combined model of “greed and grievance” (Berdal and Malone, 2000): the leaders of the insurgent group (living outside the country) pursue the ideology of a sovereign Assam together with control over its primary commodities and resources, oil and tea (following the “greed” model of conflict); while the ULFA cadres (living in Assam) are encouraged to follow the “grievance” model of conflict, especially for recruiting cadres, by inciting the perception of an unequal distribution of resources. Added to this is the reality of increasing numbers of educated unemployed. The percentage of rural and urban educated unemployed in Assam in 2000 was 15.2% and 14.1%, respectively, compared to 6.7% and 7.4%, respectively, for India as a whole; also, the percentage was higher in rural areas of Assam compared to the other northeastern states).3 A question arises here as to whether the perception of unemployment is towards the lack of livelihood opportunities (especially for the educated unemployed youth who are susceptible to cadre recruitment by insurgents) or the lack of salaried job opportunities (where jobs are equated to occupations that give a regular salary). This, in turn, leads us to question whether growth in terms of employment opportunities is stunted because of continuing conflict. Perhaps it would be relevant to exercise the caution expressed by Amartya Sen (2001) when he says that all social and political strife cannot be explained by hidden economic roots. Looking at the three conflicts in general and the conflict in Assam in particular, it appears that the perception of underdevelopment rather than underdevelopment per se has been more at play as one of the root grievances/causes underlying the conflict. This perception of underdevelopment has 3

See unemployment data from the Press Information Bureau, Government of India (http://pib.nic.in/release).

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been used as a powerful trigger in sustaining the conflict, especially for the recruitment of cadres from a fertile ground of educated unemployed youth and for the purposes of propaganda. In fact, the conflict in Assam represents a combination of the “greed” and “grievance” models of conflict, where the leaders’ desire to sustain the conflict is based on the former and the cadres in the lower ranks are recruited and maintained via the latter. This brings us to the second question: does conflict keep the development processes at bay? In the case of Northeast India, the continuing and persistent conflicts have clearly delayed development processes: •

•

•

Given the “liberalized” development path that India has embarked on since the early 1990s, the role of private investment is crucial. However, the perception of Northeast India as a troubled area deters the flow of private investment into the region. Out of a total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of US$19.038 billion into India’s manufacturing sector from April 2000 to December 2007, only US$1.44 million went to the northeast region. As a result, the development of the region is still being fueled by public investments and public sector enterprises. In light of the secondary role played by public investments nation-wide, public investment alone can no longer be seen as sufficient for the development of the region. Violence also introduces the “cost overrun and time overrun” factor into public sector or government projects. The construction of the national East-West Corridor and new railway lines through conflict-ridden hill areas of Assam is facing massive delay due to the kidnapping of officials by insurgents. Any development project also creates the possibility of (handsome amounts of) extortion by militant groups.

The argument that conflict affects development processes can be further corroborated by the following report: In the first week of January 2006, a Rs. 500 crore extortion demand was made to the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), when

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the oil major was planning to invest Rs. 33 billion in exploration and other activities in Assam. The ULFA’s extortion demand created ripples of fear and uncertainty among the 5000 ONGC employees serving in Assam, who are engaged in field operations in isolated and difficult terrain and can become soft targets for kidnapping and shooting. [Deka, 2006]

The report further stated that Assam’s Minister of State for Home Affairs, Rockybul Hussain, issued a statement on February 6, 2006, saying, “70 subversive incidents took place and public property worth Rs. 95,70,300 was damaged. Four army personnel and 24 people were killed including civilians and militants. . . . In fact, the ULFA’s violent activities have been more systematic” (Deka, 2006). The third question — the paradox Conflict is present in the oil-rich, industry-rich and tea-gardenconcentrated (administrative) district of Tinsukia in Assam; but it is almost absent (except for the militant cross-border traffic) in Dhubri district, which has the lowest Human Development Index (HDI) ranking in Assam. This is a paradox that needs to be clarified. Tinsukia is a hotbed of insurgent activity and the most conflictridden district within the state of Assam, whereas Dhubri is a district with almost no conflict. However, if we consider the human development indicators of both these districts, we find that Dhubri is the poorest district in terms of the HDI with no developmental activity going on, whereas Tinsukia is ranked 10th in the district HDI ranking (out of 23 districts) with ongoing developmental projects and other projects in the pipeline. This is shown in Table 3. The perception of the people, mainly among the youth, that there is growing wealth and growing economic opportunities but they are not part of it has led to a strong feeling of unequal distribution. A simmering resentment of “our” resources being used for “their” benefit prevails in these circumstances. Indeed, this “insider-outsider” dimension enhances the resentment, as appears to be the case in Tinsukia district and adjoining areas. In contrast, in Dhubri district,

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Human development indicators for Tinsukia and Dhubri.

Indicators HDI value (inclusive of income, education and health indices) (2003) HDI rank (out of 23 districts in Assam) Human Poverty Index (1999) Sectoral contribution (as a percentage of gross DDP) in 1994–1995 at 1980–1981 prices: Primary sector Secondary sector Tertiary sector Per capita district domestic product (DDP) (1994–1995) (in Rs.) Percentage of households with access to toilet (1991) Percentage of households with access to safe drinking water Literacy rate (2001) Gender-related Development Index (GDI) (2003) GDI rank Female literacy rate

Tinsukia (conflict)

Dhubri (no conflict)

0.377

0.214

10 29.14

23 31.98

47.27 12.99 39.74 1908

43.02 14.89 42.09 1435

53.65

29.64

73.96

56.10

63.23 0.300

49.86 0.206

19 53.40 (rank 13)

21 42.64 (rank 23)

Source: Government of Assam (2003).

there seems to be equal distribution — or, perhaps more accurately, not much to distribute (little growth in wealth) — and therefore less scope for resentment and conflict. The fact that both oil and tea are of an “enclaved” nature and do not give much scope for participation to the locals accentuates the perception of being left out. Indigenous tribes like the Moran and the Motok in Tinsukia feel more strongly about their rights to the resources than do the migrant Bengalispeaking Muslim population of Dhubri. In other worlds, underdevelopment per se is not the root cause of conflict; rather, unequal distribution and the perception of being left out of the development process (using resources which the local communities rightfully feel belong to them) seem to be the main cause of conflict.

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In conflict zones, the introduction of development projects that claim to improve people’s lives and generate wealth or opportunities for wealth, especially by tapping into local resources, should be very carefully monitored. It would be self-defeating to stop development projects altogether, but it should become mandatory to perform a detailed human security impact assessment (HSIA) before initiating the process. In fact, all development projects that will affect the local economic and demographic structure must be subject to a detailed HSIA in order to assess the impact(s) of these changes on the local populace and their existing circumstances. The findings from the assessment should then be tailored into the project’s planning and strategy when initiating the project. Methodology for Human Security Impact Assessment (HSIA) The rationale for HSIA The idea of human security has evolved since the end of the Cold War, and has expanded beyond its initial emphasis on “freedom from fear” of physical acts of violence of different forms (e.g. attacks, kidnapping, extortion) to encompass “freedom from want” or a state of end of deprivation from basic needs (e.g. food, clothing, shelter, health care, education of children). While progress in the attainment of both components is essential for the advancement of overall human security, it is important to recognize that the components are often interlinked. Hence, progress in the components involves a mutually reinforcing virtuous cycle of propelling human security; conversely, a setback on one front can trigger off a mutually reinforcing downward spiral of exacerbated insecurity. Development initiatives are usually aimed at enhancing people’s access to goods, services or facilities, resulting in an expansion of their freedom from want. A development initiative may be continuous and well spread out, as is the case in food subsidization programs, immunization programs or employment guarantee programs; or it may be a lumpy discontinuous and concentrated intervention, as in the construction of a mega power plant, the establishment of a large

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industrial unit or the setting up of a large export processing park. While both types of initiatives are significant in their respective contexts, the latter type of projects is much wider and has more perceptible social and environmental implications simply because of its concentrated and lumpy nature. Such projects are traditionally evaluated, accepted and implemented only after they are found to be viable on the basis of a cost/benefit analysis. In light of the growing concern for the conservation of natural resources and the environment since the 1970s, environmental clearance and environmental impact assessment (EIA) of such projects have also become mandatory in almost all countries. Besides posing potential environmental threats, many lumpy development projects have been found to have adverse implications for human security for certain groups of the population. Although a development project cleared after a cost/benefit analysis is likely to add net benefit to the society and thus improve human security on the whole by enhancing freedom from want, it may have adverse human security implications for some sections of the population. First of all, the distribution of benefits from the project may not be uniform across different groups of stakeholders, and so benefit sharing can be potential source of conflict and a threat to human security. In addition, such development projects often involve relocation of the people inhabiting the project site. Although a rehabilitation package generally forms part of the project cost, the package may not provide full compensation for displacement from the socioeconomic and environmental setup from which the inhabitants have been relocated. Moreover, there may be an erosion of entitlement of a section of the population arising from the use of natural and environmental resources in the project, which may have escaped both the cost/benefit analysis and the EIA. It is therefore felt that, besides carrying out a cost/benefit analysis and EIA, an HSIA of lumpy development projects should also be carried out so that adverse human security impacts are foreseen, mitigation plans are prepared and incorporated in the project, contingency provisions are made for unforeseen fallouts, and a human security monitoring mechanism is incorporated into the overall project monitoring system. It may also be necessary to

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examine alternative projects if human security implications are found to be too serious. The idea of HSIA Human security impact assessment (HSIA) may be defined as the process of identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating those effects of proposed development projects and physical activities that may impair the human security of certain sections of the population. The exercise is not aimed at assessing the net aggregate human security contribution of a project. To the extent that the project has a net positive economic return, it is likely to have a positive contribution to the net production of goods and services, and thus is likely to have positive human security implications for the potential beneficiaries of the project. Yet, few projects in the world are likely to benefit a section of the society without adversely affecting another section. An HSIA is therefore recommended to focus on the potential impairment of human security of those who are likely to bear the brunt of these adverse consequences, even though on the aggregate the project is likely to have a positive overall impact. Moreover, the purpose of the proposed exercise is not to negate development projects on the grounds that they may have adverse human security implications. Instead, the aim of the exercise is to anticipate adverse human security impacts, prepare mitigation plans and incorporate them into the project, make contingency provisions for unforeseen fallouts, and incorporate a human security monitoring mechanism into the overall project monitoring system. Human security impact assessment (HSIA) vs. environmental impact assessment (EIA) The concept of an HSIA exercise is broadly adapted from the procedure for an EIA. However, the former involves a higher level of difficulty. EIA deals with nature and the environment, and so focuses primarily on the biophysical component, though the social component is also not ignored; in contrast, HSIA deals primarily with the social component. As social events are not foreseeable or predictable

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with the same degree of precision as events in the biophysical sphere, HSIA has a higher degree of inexactness than EIA. A good HSIA should attempt to minimize the degree of inexactness. Furthermore, contingent plans for unforeseen impacts take on greater significance in HSIA than in EIA. The differences between an EIA and the proposed HSIA are summarized in Table 4. Components of HSIA An HSIA process involves the following steps: 1. Screening; 2. Scoping and preparation of the terms of reference (ToR); Table 4. EIA EIA deals mainly with biophysical components constituting the environment. People and society enter primarily in relation to their interaction with the environment.

Predictability is higher and the uncertainty about impacts is lower.

Although EIA involves capturing complex interdependencies between physical and biological factors, the interrelationships are far more stable than social interactions.

HSIA vs. EIA. HSIA HSIA deals with human beings as individuals and social groups. Their concerns regarding security of life and limb, livelihood, cultural identity, etc. in the process of the implementation of the development project are of prime importance. Hence, despite the apparent similarity in the structures of EIA and HSIA, at each step the content of the issues relating to HSIA is different. As human response cannot be predicted as accurately as biophysical changes, HSIA has to cope with greater randomness. Consequently, HSIA in general is likely to be less exact than EIA. Human society is more dynamic and can react within a shorter period, and thus social responses are more interactive. Accordingly, HSIA is more complex.

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Impact analysis; Mitigating measures; Monitoring; and Final documentation.

These components are described in more detail below. Screening Screening involves a preliminary assessment of human security implications of the project in order to establish the likely scale of the HSIA exercise. All proposed projects may not have human security impacts of equal significance; accordingly, the HSIA exercise need not be of the same extent and depth in all cases. Screening can be done by scrutinizing readily available secondary data and literature, followed by a discussion with sources of information about the socioeconomic situation in those locations likely to be touched by the construction and operation of the project. Following this preliminary analysis, a project may be placed in one of the following categories: •

•

•

Category 1 — projects which are not expected to result in any significant adverse impacts and which do not require any additional human security study. Category 2 — projects which are likely to cause a limited number of significant adverse impacts, unless appropriate mitigation action is taken. The impacts and relevant mitigation actions are well known, and it is expected that such projects can be implemented after a limited human security study and the production of a mitigation plan. Category 3 — projects which are likely to cause a range of significant adverse impacts whose extent and magnitude cannot be determined without a detailed study. Similarly, appropriate mitigation measures cannot be devised until the results of this study have been obtained.

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Scoping and preparation of the terms of reference (ToR) Scoping involves identification of the key issues and impacts that need to be addressed, which logically leads to the preparation of terms of reference (ToR) for the HSIA exercise. Scoping should be undertaken by the proponent, who will pay all of the costs. Prior to the preparation of the ToR, it is necessary to do the following: • • • • • •

Inform participants of the HSIA and its objectives; Define time/space boundaries for the HSIA; Identify feasible alternative project designs and locations; Provide guidance on the nature and scale of the issues, especially the likely significant impacts to be examined; Obtain local knowledge on the characteristics of the local area; and Define the essential components of a plan for involvement.

It is necessary to consider the significant human security implications that are likely to arise not only during the construction of the project, but also during its operational period. In some cases, it may even be necessary to examine the abandonment or decommissioning phases. However, it is not cost-effective to study all possible impacts from a large range of alternatives. Therefore, the most important outcome of scoping is an agreement among the main stakeholders, including the public, on the range of alternatives to be assessed and the most likely significant impacts to be predicted and evaluated. The range of individuals, agencies and organizations to be involved should include, as a minimum, the following: •

National government ministries who are likely to have their areas of responsibility affected by the project proposal (for example, ministries concerned with agriculture, natural resources, transport, health and social welfare);

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Local government bodies in whose area a project is proposed or whose area is likely to be affected by the project; “Traditional” decision-making bodies (such as councils); Private sector organizations such as trade associations and chambers of commerce; Non-governmental organizations (NGOs); and Representatives of the public, who are likely to be affected by the proposal.

These stakeholders must be provided with information on the proposal, as well as its alternatives, so as to enable them to indicate the issues which concern them. There are many ways for obtaining responses from those who are consulted in scoping. In the case of governmental agencies and NGOs, responses may be requested in writing and, if necessary, meetings held. Scoping can be undertaken in a number of different ways. A meeting or series of meetings may be held behind closed doors, involving only the proponent and a number of concerned agencies. Alternatively, public meetings (open to all local interested people and groups) may be held, or a workshop or seminar to which stakeholders are invited may be organized. To assist scoping, a first draft of a ToR might be prepared. The results of scoping should be analyzed and evaluated, and then a further draft ToR for the HSIA prepared. The ToR will determine not only the relevance and utility of the HSIA exercise for project design and management, but also the usefulness of HSIA results for decision making. There are two key components to be included in a ToR: • •

The project proposal and its reasonable alternatives (including the “no action” option); and The likely significant impacts to be investigated.

The ToR should not be considered as a fixed or rigid document. As HSIA work progresses, it may be necessary to change the orientation of work.

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Impact analysis HSIA work is basically concentrated on a systematic prediction and evaluation of each of the alternative impacts identified in the ToR. These impacts should be compared with each other and with the “no action” option. The scoping exercise will direct the analysis required at this stage. The analysis consists of two stages: qualitative investigation and quantitative analysis. To understand and document the nature and magnitude of the possible human security impacts of the project, it is necessary to conduct a qualitative investigation using participatory observation or focus group discussions (or a combination of the two) in the relevant location. Quantitative analysis, using available secondary data and/or primary data collected through field investigations, is also necessary to estimate the quantifiable human security impacts. Beginning with the baseline status, the estimates are made via scenario analysis and simulation. Scenario analysis is used to construct the possible physical changes, including the landscape, habitation, and movement of people and material. The other human security repercussions not captured in these changes have to be simulated. The simulation model may be based on the conflict–development relationship, as theorized from empirical research, but the basic model must be moderated and modified to capture the specific ground-level conditions. There should be close collaboration between those responsible for the HSIA and staff working on technical design and economic/financial issues. For example, let us assume that certain alternatives are abandoned early in the HSIA on account of being too damaging. A preferred alternative or alternatives may emerge, and design and layout could be improved through actions taken to “design out” or reduce impacts. Some proposed projects are accompanied by one or more associated developments; for example, a quarry usually requires access roads. It is very important to consider not only the main project proposal, but also any associated developments in terms of their human

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security impacts. Such associated developments need to be considered as components of a single, overall, or combined development proposal. Mitigating measures The mitigation plan draws up measures to prevent, minimize, and offset or compensate for the impairment of human security due to the project. As soon as significant adverse impacts are identified, discussions should be held to see if they can be “designed out” through changes in project design, location or operation. In most cases, however, impacts can only be mitigated through the implementation of actions, at the appropriate time, during the construction and operation of a project. Such measures can be broadly divided into the following forms: •

•

•

•

Preventing or minimizing impacts before they occur by limiting the extent or timing of an action and its implementation. For example, if a project upstream of a river has serious human security implications for inhabitants downstream because of reduced flow, increased uncertainty about the flow and/or deterioration in the quality of water, suitable modification of the project and coordination of its operation can help to avoid or scale down these impacts. Eliminating or reducing an actual impact over time by having maintenance operations or contingency plans in place during the life of the project. In some cases, adverse human security impacts need not necessarily manifest, but may arise due to a variety of factors. A contingency plan for such a situation will be of much use for human security management. Compensating for an impact by enabling resource transfer and/or creating alternative opportunities for the affected section of the population. This is to be attempted when the impairment of human security cannot be avoided through other measures. Maximizing beneficial impacts through specific additional actions.

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Mitigating measures may also include the dissemination of correct and credible information, or the prevention and countering of misinformation by vested interests. Lack of clear information and misinformation often lead to heightened concerns and, in an already conflict-ridden situation, may even aggravate the conflict. It is useful to specify in detail the characteristics of the mitigating measures that are implemented for the targeted impacts. The specification may include: • • • • • •

A description of the mitigation action; Information regarding the time/place for implementation; Expected results; Responsibilities for implementation; A monitoring strategy that is needed to check on the implementation and the level of performance success; and Reporting procedures within the operator’s organization, and to a control authority and community liaison committee (if formed).

Mitigation is more than just an additional cost to proponents. The more the impacts are mitigated, the more congenial the social environment becomes, imparting a healthy atmosphere not only for the project in question but also for developmental activities in general. In this sense, the human security impact mitigation plans will have positive externalities for the broader society as a whole. Monitoring There are three main types of monitoring that can be undertaken for a project: • •

Compliance monitoring (whether project implementation has followed the design agreed with stakeholders); Mitigation monitoring (whether mitigation actions have been implemented in accordance with an agreed schedule and are working as expected); and

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Impact monitoring (scale and extent of impacts caused by the project).

Monitoring is of particular importance if a decision is made to proceed with a project because of the expected benefits, despite considerable uncertainty surrounding the scale and significance of one or more adverse impacts. The work involved in the monitoring process includes: • • •

•

Identification of impacts to be monitored (in order of priority); Design of an appropriate monitoring program for each identified impact; Formation of the institutional system by which monitoring data will be collected, collated, analyzed and interpreted and the resultant action taken, if necessary, to prevent or reduce unwanted impacts; and Estimation and earmarking of the cost of the overall monitoring exercise.

For monitoring to be successful, it needs to be technically adequate as well as be part of an effective institutional framework which can make use of the data to take appropriate action. There is no point in collecting data that are subsequently “shelved” because there is no institutional arrangement within which the data can be utilized. The total cost will depend on the decisions made in relation to the number of impacts to be monitored, the nature and duration of the individual monitoring schemes, and the type of institutional system needed to use the data. Final documentation After the HSIA is completed, the whole exercise needs to be documented right from inception to completion and implementation. The document should be preserved and made available for reference for future HSIA exercises and also for further fine-tuning of the HSIA methodology. Table 5 summarizes the HSIA process in full.

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Steps

A summary of steps for HSIA.

Content

Screening

Preliminary assessment of human security implications of the project in order to establish the likely scale of HSIA

Scoping

Identification of the key issues and impacts, and preparation of the ToR

Impact analysis

Systematic prediction and evaluation of the impacts identified in the ToR

Methods and tasks • Scrutinize readily available secondary data and literature, and discuss with informed sources about the local socioeconomic situation. • Place the project in the appropriate category with respect to the extent of impact assessment. • Hold meetings behind closed doors involving only the proponent and a number of concerned agencies, and/or public (open) meetings, and/or workshops or seminars to which stakeholders are invited. • Determine and pen down the likely significant impacts to be investigated. • Both qualitative investigation and quantitative analysis are needed. Qualitative investigation consists of participatory observation and/or focus group discussions to understand and document the nature and magnitude of the possible human security impacts of the project. Quantitative analysis, using available secondary data and/or primary data collected through field investigations, is necessary to estimate quantifiable human security impacts. (Continued )

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Mitigating measures

Content

125

(Continued ) Methods and tasks • Beginning with the baseline status, the estimates are made via scenario analysis and simulation. Scenario analysis is used to construct the possible physical changes, including the landscape, habitation, and movement of people and material. The other human security repercussions not captured in these changes have to be simulated. The simulation model may be based on the conflict–development relationship (as captured in empirical research), but with moderation and modifications in light of the ground-level conditions. • Collaboration is needed between those responsible for the HSIA and staff working on technical design and economic/financial issues. • It is important to consider not only the main project proposal, but also any associated developments in terms of their human security impacts. • Draw up measures to prevent, minimize, and offset or compensate for the impairment of human security. (Continued )

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Steps

(Continued )

Content

Methods and tasks

Compliance monitoring, • Identify the impacts to be mitigation monitoring monitored (in order of priority). • Design an appropriate monitoring and impact monitoring program for each identified impact. • Form an institutional system by which monitoring data will be collected, collated, analyzed, and interpreted and the resultant action taken. • Estimate and earmark the cost of the overall monitoring exercise. • Document the entire HSIA Final documentation process, from inception to completion and implementation, for reference for future exercises. Monitoring

Cumulative impact and impact interaction When a number of development projects are in various stages of implementation and operation, impacting a common habitation of people, it may be necessary to examine if there are interactions among the human security impacts of the different projects. Such interactions may be beneficial or detrimental for the overall human security status in the relevant location. Should this situation occur, a cumulative HSIA may be warranted. Pitfalls of conducting HSIA The rationale behind the proposed HSIA has been discussed earlier in this chapter. There may, however, be some undesirable consequences of taking up HSIA. These may arise from the fact that the entire exercise is centered on human beings in the society, unlike EIA whereby the central focus is on biophysical elements constituting the environment. Since HSIA is likely to recommend mitigating measures resulting

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in an accrual of compensation (e.g. transfer of resources, creation of alternative opportunities), the exercise may induce probable recipients to act so as to exaggerate the human security impact. As HSIA becomes more popular, it will be necessary to evolve suitable methods that will be able to eliminate any possible upward bias arising from motivated responses of the stakeholders. Human Security Impact Assessment (HSIA): The Case of the Assam Gas Cracker Project This case study was conducted to analyze the potential impairment of human security likely to be caused by the development project. It was also an attempt to assess the methodology of HSIA. Background of the project The establishment of the Assam Gas Cracker Project was agreed upon in the Assam Accord, which was signed in the wee hours of August 15, 1985 between the Union Government of India and the AASU and All Assam Gana Sangram Parishad, who together spearheaded the Assam Movement during the late 1970s and early 1980s. Their main demand was to detect and deport the illegal foreign migrants entering into Assam from Bangladesh in order to protect the identity of the Assamese people, but the movement was fueled by the perception of underdevelopment of Assam. Locals felt that they were not getting their dues, despite the region being rich in natural resources, because of the stepmotherly treatment by the Union Government of India. After much delay due to various technical and other reasons, the Indian Prime Minister officially inaugurated the commissioning process of this petrochemical project — which costs Rs. 54.6 billion (approximately US$1.365 billion) — on April 9, 2007. A new company — Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd. (BCPL) — has been formed, with 70% equity participation from the Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL) and 10% each from Oil India Ltd. (OIL), Numaligarh Refinery Ltd. (NRL) and the Government of

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Project configuration.

Unit

Capacity

At Duliajan Gas compressor and pipeline

6.0 mmscmd

At Lakwa Gas sweetening unit C2/C3 plant

1.35 mmscmd 1.35 mmscmd

At Lepetkata Gas sweetening unit C2/C3 plant Gas (naphtha) cracker LLDPE/HDPE (swing unit) Polypropylene

6.0 mmscmd 6.0 mmscmd 220,000 tpa of ethylene 220,000 tpa 60,000 tpa

Note: mmscmd, million metric standard cubic meters per day; tpa, tons per annum.

Assam.4 BCPL will be the holder of the petrochemical project. The project is likely to start production by 2011. Table 6 shows the project configuration. GAIL’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) plant in Lakwa shall be transferred to the project and modified for extraction of C2+ liquid, and the C+2 shall be transported to Lepetkata by pipeline. In addition, 55,750 tpa of raw pyrolysis gasoline (RPG) and 12,500 tpa of fuel oil shall be produced as byproducts. The feedstock for the petrochemical complex is 6 mmscmd of gas from OIL and 1.35 mmscmd of gas from the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), while 160,000 tpa of petrochemicalgrade naphtha from NRL shall also be utilized. Background of the area The main units of the project (comprising a gas cracker unit, downstream polymer unit and integrated off-site/utility plants) and the township will be based in Lepetkata. For this purpose, a total of 3,030 bighas 4

GAIL, OIL and NRL are all Indian public sector companies.

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(7.5 bighas = 1 hectare) of land and an additional 400 bighas for the township have been acquired by the district administration of Lepetkata. Lepetkata is situated in Dibrugarh District on National Highway 37 in the easternmost part of Assam, where most of the oil reserves and tea gardens are found. The major inhabitants of Lepetkata are the Sonowal Kochari, an indigenous group that has been accorded Scheduled Tribe (ST) status under the Constitution of India; and the tea garden labor community, who were brought into Assam from the central-eastern part of India as contractual (mostly tribal) labor to work in the tea gardens and are now agitating for ST status. Most of the Sonowal Kochari community are small farmers mainly engaged in rain-fed paddy cultivation. The fertile land on the bank of Sesa River, a tributary of Brahmaputra River, gives sufficient produce in paddy for about 6–8 months of the year, provided the crop is not destroyed by untimely flooding of the river. The people are significantly dependent on the periodic cash or non-cash incomes from their homestead (mainly growing fruit trees, vegetables and areca nut), riverside commons and bamboo groves, and small (privately owned) woods. Commons are also the place for free-grazing bullocks and goat rearing. In addition, some youths from the community are engaged in (small) tea and orange gardens. The livelihood of the tea labor community revolves around work in the tea gardens. There are 260 permanent laborers and more than 400 casual laborers in Bolye Tea Estate, a division of the Magor (a big multinational company)-owned Lepetkata Tea Estate. Most of the casual as well as permanent laborers are women. Some tea garden laborers also cultivate paddy in riverside commons and unutilized areas of the tea gardens. The men, around 300–400 in number, go to the nearby Dibrugarh town daily by bus for unskilled, daily wage labor which is irregular in nature. The education scenario is bad, with only one primary school and one high school that are of a poor standard (local information). The Sonowal Kochari girls are generally better educated than the boys, who study up to the 8th or 10th grade. The level of education of the tea labor community is worse. In both communities, there are about 400 male youths sitting idle with nothing to engage or occupy them.

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The field studies, observed interactions and interviews for the case study were conducted over two visits by the research team in February 2008 and March 2008. A number of informal field interactions were also explored by the principal researcher from December 2007 to March 2008. The findings are presented below as per the HSIA steps discussed earlier. Screening Formally approaching BCPL or the Assam Government-owned Assam Industrial Development Corporation did not bear any fruitful result in terms of accessing the project details. This may be because of the paucity of time; in this part of the country, senior researchers usually have to make a number of visits to all levels of officials in order to establish their credentials and intentions. Project details could have been obtained under the Right to Information Act; however, the process is very time-consuming, and the authorities often do not divulge information citing “security reasons”. Therefore, one lesson derived from the experience is the need for sanctity and recognition of the HSIA conducting body by various stakeholders, especially by the project and governmental authorities. Nevertheless, project details were accessed from an informal source and discussed with informed technical sources (who would not like to be quoted) and key informants at the field level. It was concluded that the Assam Gas Cracker Project will impact the existing livelihood, dignity and way of life of people in a very significant manner. About 200–500 households are likely to be affected at different degrees of impairment of security vis-à-vis “want” factors, but it is very difficult to gauge the extent of security impairment if apprehension over the “violence” factor actually materializes. Relevant mitigation actions are known; however, acceptance of these mitigation actions, especially the long-term ones, by the government and the company is crucial. Such acceptance or non-acceptance will have a significant influence on the extent and magnitude of possible new conflicts. Although there is some uncertainty about the extent and magnitude of such adverse impacts, the impacts and mitigation

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actions could be well known with little interactions or opinion and perception gathering. Thus, the Assam Gas Cracker Project — as far as the Lepetkata area is concerned (the case study did not cover the areas to be affected by proposed pipelines or the origins of gas and oil) — could be classified as a “Category 2” project. Scoping The following participants were identified to conduct HSIA: •

• • • •

Public representatives who have been residing in the Assam Gas Cracker Project area (Lepetkata) and who are likely to be affected by the project — the Sonowal Kochari community and the tea garden labor community; Informed persons from both the Sonowal Kochari and tea garden labor communities; Representatives of BCPL; The district commissioner (district-level administrative and revenue head) of Dibrugarh District, Assam; and Other technical persons.

The objective of the HSIA exercise was conveyed to the participants as follows: For the launch and operation of any development project, environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a mandatory requirement for agencies that implement such projects. However, it is also important to study how the project affects human security. The objective of this study is to assert the importance of HSIA in development projects and seek to make HSIA a mandatory norm.

The following methods were used to understand key issues and dimensions of impact on human security: •

Key informant interviews — interviews with those who can actually understand the common people’s perceptions and their way of life; and

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Focus group discussions (FGDs) — separate FGDs for men and women, each group consisting of 8–10 participants from different age groups.

FGDs were found to be more informative if the focus group included people who were the breadwinners of the family (e.g. middle-aged to older Sonowal Kochari men, women in the tea garden labor community). Also, information was more diverse if the focus groups consisted of people from different age groups. Key areas of discussion with key informants and focus group members centered on: • • • • •

General information on what has been happening in the area with regard to the Assam Gas Cracker Project; Whether the project is perceived as beneficial or disadvantageous for the local population; The kinds of impact that the project might have on the local population; Whether there are any apprehensions and, if so, what kind of apprehensions; and Measures that could be taken in order to sustain and cope with the changing situation. Participants identified the following key issues of the project:

• • • • • • •

Compensation and relocation; Access to benefits which are likely to arise from the project; Εffect on livelihood; Loss of natural resources; Effect on health; Disruption of the social fabric; and Chances of conflict.

Impact analysis Due to the paucity of time for impact analysis of the project, only the qualitative survey method was conducted in the form of semi-structured

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interviews and FGDs. The key issues identified above are described in more detail below. Compensation and relocation A total of about 500 families have lost their residential plots and farm lands due to the project, with 150 families from the Sonowal Kochari community and 350 from the tea garden labor community. Of these, approximately 64 families have lost their residences, with 22 families from the Sonowal Kochari community and 42 from the tea garden labor community. Sonowal Kochari families will be relocated to an area called Jikabari in Dainijan, while families from the tea garden labor community will be relocated to the Bolye Tea Estate (a division of the Lepetkata Tea Estate). Apprehensions and complaints that have been expressed by participants about the Assam Gas Cracker Project include the following: •

•

5

Compensation only in the form of cash/money is not appropriate, as money will not last for a long time. The compensation amount seems to be a large sum of money for most people because they have not handled that much money before, so there is a tendency to spend the money immediately on consumables instead of utilizing it productively. For example, it is reported that around 70 high-end motorcycles were bought on the same day.5 Participants also expressed that monetary compensation for their farm land is not of any help, as the price of land in nearby areas has increased since the compensation package came into force; at the same time, families cannot move far away as their residential plots cannot be sold due to the stopping of purchases and sales of land in the area. Many families have been asked to vacate the government-acquired land (including houses) and hand it over to BCPL as soon as

However, it should be mentioned here that most people are building concrete structures for residences in their housing plots despite being unsure of the fate of their residential plots, because they believe that they will receive better compensation with the concrete structures when the government acquires more land in the future.

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possible. However, the houses in the relocated area, which were supposed to be constructed by the government/BCPL, have not been constructed yet. These families have been asked to construct houses on their own and each family will be given Rs. 150,000 (approximately US$3,750) for this purpose, but some key informants claimed that up to 26 families have yet to receive any compensation. Within the Lepetkata Tea Estate, there is an agreement between occupants of the tea garden land (who have been cultivating paddy, small tea gardens, orange gardens, etc. there) and management. Compensation is given at 142% of the assessed value of the land, of which 100% is given to the occupants while 42% stays with the tea company. However, such an agreement has not been reached in smaller, privately owned companies such as Beheating Tea Estate and Ghooronia Tea Estate, and the compensation amount for 28 families residing in these two estates is being referred to court by the administration. The road through Bolye Tea Estate, which links both the Sonowal Kochari village and the tea garden laborers’ quarters to the highway, goes through the proposed petrochemical complex and will not be accessible to the inhabitants.

Access to benefits which are likely to arise from the project The Assam Gas Cracker Project is likely to create employment opportunities of a nature that will require technical skills. A technical training course on plastics processing has commenced at the Barbaruah (near Lepetkata) Government Institute for Technical Instruction. But as the entry qualification is relatively high and there are no reserved places for the local youth, even though the Sonowal Kochari is a Scheduled Tribe (ST), local youths have not been able to enroll for such training. Therefore, their future prospects of being absorbed in such jobs are meager, both in BCPL and in downstream industries. It will also be difficult for locals to submit tenders for contracts for construction work, fencing, etc. during the establishment phase of the

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project, as requirements like having a Provident Fund (PF) number and having prior experience in such work are among the criteria for selection. Likewise, even to offer hired car services for the project during the establishment phase, having a PF number is a requirement. To become registered with a PF authority and obtain a PF number, any establishment has to have at least 18 employees. The local people (especially educated unemployed youths who are trying for such contracts) cannot fulfill these requirements and hence are not likely to benefit. As stated during the field study by the organizing secretary of the All Assam Tea Tribe Students Association (AATTSA), an influential organization within the community of former and current tea garden laborers, “This is a policy to prohibit the local people from getting benefits from the project.” Government informants claim that the project will create employment opportunities for 1 lakh people, while BCPL claims that 700 people will get Grade A or B employment. However, most of the jobs will require high technical expertise, and the remaining jobs will be able to absorb only around 200 people. As stated by the AATTSA organizing secretary, “Educated people will still benefit to some extent, but the uneducated will not gain anything.” The tea workers hope that they will get some work after the project is established. They are even ready to work as domestic help. They are, however, apprehensive as to how many such jobs will be created, and some fear that they will die out of hunger. As for business opportunities, participants apprehend that the local people will not be able to capture the business opportunities that may arise in the wake of the project. This is because they have been sustaining on agriculture and have no prior experience of doing business. Effect on livelihood In the words of one participant, “The project has been disadvantageous in many respects for the local people as livelihood will be greatly hampered and no one has paid much attention to this aspect.” Table 7 reveals some thoughts of the other participants. The primary source of livelihood of the Sonowal Kochari community has traditionally been agriculture and allied activities like

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• • •

• • • • •

•

• • •

Some perceptions and statements.

“We had not agreed to give the land earlier. Land has been stolen from us showing guns.” “Land has been taken away from us, so we should get benefits from the project.” “We feel we might have to leave this place. Who wants to leave the place where they have been residing for so many generations? But there is no option; we have to look for a way.” “We need benefits with the help of which we can sustain in the future.” “We do not know what the government is doing.” “What kind of an environment are we going to live in in the future? No land, no trees, not even wood fuel for cooking.” “Everything has to be sold away. There is no land now even to cremate those who die.” “We have to die. There is no hope to survive. Only one or two persons can be employed in the company. We are not educated, we cannot be employed. We do not have any option left open for us.” “We are not saying that the project will not do good. But what about us? What will happen to our children and grandchildren? There is no place to live and money will not last for long.” “Conflict is certain to happen. If tomorrow the government wants more land, it will take more land.” “We are stuck inside a ‘U’-like structure, surrounded from three sides.” “We as a community are already weak and vulnerable, and we feel that in the long run the project will make us weaker.”

homestead livestock. However, the Assam Gas Cracker Project has resulted in the acquisition of farm land, homestead land (families lose not only their houses but also their homestead), bamboo groves, small tea gardens and grazing land. Agriculture and allied activities will thus be severely affected. Moreover, male members of the Sonowal Kochari community who participated in the FGDs expressed their fear of having to “work like laborers”. The Sonowal Kochari families have traditionally been practicing agriculture on their own land. They are used to working their own land. However, they feel that in the near, post-conflict future, they may be compelled to work as laborers — something they have never done before. They are also wary of the irregularity of such

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work. In short, they are worried whether they will even be able to lead a life with minimum dignity: “It would be enough if we are able to lead a life as human beings.” The permanent workers of Bolye Tea Estate may not be affected much, as management of the tea garden has assured that they will be absorbed. However, such assurances are absent in Beheating Tea Estate and Ghooronia Tea Estate. Casual workers (mostly women who are engaged during the “plucking season” of April–October) are likely to be most adversely affected, since they will lose work on which they are dependent for about six months of the year. There are around 400 casual workers who are dependent on the tea gardens. Workers working in the tea gardens also practice agriculture on the tea garden land, but this land will have to be abandoned for the project and therefore they will not be able to get any produce from that land anymore. The atmosphere of uncertainty is very high. The tea garden labor families are particularly worried because they do not know what kind of work their children will be able to do in the future, given the apparently diminishing possibility of work in tea gardens (the present unwritten code is that children take over their parents’ jobs after they retire). Clearly, people from all communities will have difficulties in coping with the new situation. Loss of natural resources According to some key informants, the project will acquire a total of 3,323 bighas of land. Out of this, 2,200 bighas are tea garden land (within which 1,000 bighas are in the tea-planted area). Indeed, Bolye Tea Estate has lost almost three-quarters of its total area. In addition, access to the nearby Sesa River will be affected by the fencing of the petrochemical complex. Access to resources from riverside commons and the homestead such as fuel for cooking, betel nut, and other products like fruits and vegetables — which have been freely available until now — will be adversely affected. People will also not be able to have access to foraged vegetables, fish, snails, etc.

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Effect on health The local people fear that the Assam Gas Cracker Project and other downstream industries will be a source of pollution (including pollution of the Sesa River) and a major cause of health hazards. Participants fear that expenditure on health will also increase. Disruption of the social fabric With the project, a large number of people from outside will come to the area. This may result in an increase in the crime rate, and may also disrupt the prevailing societal norms in the area and within the communities. People in villages are used to living in a particular societal environment, and so they will find it difficult to adjust to the new environment. In fact, disruption of the social fabric is already being noticed, as some people have started disrespecting other communities’ property by cutting down bamboo and trees for sale. Women are also concerned about their personal security due to the influx of new people, as they fear they will not be able to go to the river alone to collect foraged vegetables and snails, catch fish or take a bath. Chances of conflict People think that a sort of violence was committed when their land was acquired. When participants were asked why they parted with their land if they were certain that their livelihood would be affected, many replied, “They showed guns to compel us to part with land.” They were referring to incidents of violence in the beginning of 2007, when 500 protesters were fired upon with rubber bullets and many were injured. Participants apprehend that conflict in the area will take place, especially when people do not see the promises being fulfilled.6 6

It is felt by the researchers that people’s expectations were actually raised by government officials and politicians in order to hasten the land acquirement process. Even the BCPL officials are aware of high expectations and complain of not having what they call a “one-time” settlement.

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According to the participants, an unequal distribution of benefits of this nature may lead to conflict in the future and unemployed youth (around 200–300 in number) may resort to violent means. No one wants conflict and a situation of fear, but as an FGD participant stated, “Bombing will take place. Wherever there is more money, bombing will take place to terrorize the people and extort money.” Scenario analysis All participants of the field discussions felt that, although they are not very well-off now in terms of uncertainty, they will be even worse off once the project takes place. This is largely due to the lack of information. Almost all participants voiced that they do not know what is happening because they have not been adequately informed. There has not been any public hearing, though government officials claim that a public hearing did take place. Mitigating measures The government, at best, is looking at short-term mitigating measures in the form of compensation and relocation as well as unskilled and subcontracted labor during the construction phase of the project. In fact, the government is very proud about the fact that it has acquired land for the project within just 18 months instead of the stipulated 36 months. However, BCPL officials privately express apprehension that government officials and political functionaries have raised the expectations of the local populace that will be difficult to fulfill. Government officials are not ready to accept the fact that the best mitigating measures lie in long-term capacity building in alternative livelihoods, most of which will not be directly related to the project. Bibliography Bajpai, Kanti (2000). Human security: concept and measurement. Occasional Paper No. 1, Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame.

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Barbanti Jr., Olympio (2004). Development and conflict theory. In: Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess (eds.), Beyond Intractability, Conflict Research Consortium, University of Colorado, Boulder, August. Available at http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/development_ conflict_theory/. Barrow, Chris (1984). Book review — “Environmental Assessment of Development Projects”. Third World Quarterly, 6(3): 797–798. Berdal, Mats and David M. Malone (eds.) (2000). Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars. Boulder, CO: Lynne Riennes Publishers. Bouta, Tsjeard, George Frerks and Ian Bannon (2005). Gender, Conflict and Development. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. Brown, Michael (ed.) (1996). The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Collier, Paul (2004). Development and conflict. Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, Oxford University, October 1. Collier, Paul et al. (2003). Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank and Oxford University Press. Commission on Human Security (CHS) (2003). Human Security Now: Protecting and Empowering People. New York: CHS. Croissant, Aurel (2005). Political violence, terrorism, and transformation to democracy and market economy: findings of the Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2006. Strategic Insights, 4(12), December. Crossin, Corene and Jessie Banfield (2006). Conflict and project finance: exploring options for better management of conflict risk. Background paper, International Alert, January. Datta, P. S. (1995). Introduction. In: P. S. Datta (ed.), North-East and the Indian State: Paradoxes of a Periphery, New Delhi: Vikas Publishing House. Deka, Arup Kumar (2006). ULFA and the Peace Process in Assam. Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies Special Report No. 21, May. Druckman, Daniel (1994). Nationalism, patriotism and group loyalty: a social psychological perspective. Mershon International Studies Review, 38: 43–68. Fearnely, Lilah and Lyn Chiwandamira (2006). Understanding armed conflict and peace-building in Africa. In: Lindlyn Chiwandamira and

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Monica Makaula (eds.), Perspectives on African Governance, Capetown: IDASA, pp. 1–21. Galtung, Johan (2003). Violence, war and their impact. Available on the Transcend International website (http://www.transcend.org/ TRRECBAS.HTM). Government of Assam (2003). Assam Human Development Report 2003. Dispur, Guwahati: Government of Assam. Halford, Douglas K. (1979). Book review — “Environmental Impact Assessment: Principles and Applications”. Ecology, 60(5): 1078–1079. Harbom, Lotta, Stina Hogbladh and Peter Wallenstein (2006). Armed conflict and peace agreements. Journal of Peace Research, 43(5): 617–631. Harbom, Lotta and Peter Wallenstein (2007). Armed conflict 1989–2006. Journal of Peace Research, 44(5): 623–634. Högbladh, Stina (2004). Uppsala Conflict Database Codebook. Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, May. Available at http://www.pcr.uu.se/database/ codebook.pdf/. Human Security Report Project (2005). Human Security Report 2005: War and Peace in the 21st Century. Vancouver: Human Security Centre, University of British Columbia. Human Security Report Project (2006). Human Security Brief 2006. Vancouver: Human Security Centre, University of British Columbia. Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies website (http://www.ipcs.org). International Development Committee, House of Commons (2006). Conflict and Development: Peacebuilding and Post-Conflict Reconstruction. Sixth Report of Session 2005–2006, Vol. 1. King, Gary and Christopher J. L. Murray (2001). Rethinking human security. Political Science Quarterly, 116(4): 585–610. Kriesberg, Louis (1998). Constructive Conflicts: From Escalation to Resolution. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Krishna Rao, K. V. (1999). Insurgency in the northeast of India. Globe, October. Lake, David and Donald Rothchild (1996a). Ethnic fears and global engagement: the international spread and management of ethnic conflict. Available at http://www.ciaonet.org/wpsfrm.htm/3/2/99/.

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Lake, David A. and Donald Rothchild (1996b). Containing fear: the origins and management of ethnic conflict. International Security, 21(2): 41–75. Leaning, Jennifer and Sam Arie (2000). Human security: a framework for assessment in conflict and transition. Paper prepared for the USAID/ CERTI initiative, December. Lederach, Jean Paul (1997). Building Peace: Sustainable Reconciliation in Divided Societies. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace. Lekha Sriram, Chandra and Karin Wermester (eds.) (2003). From Promise to Practice: Strengthening UN Capacities for the Prevention of Violent Conflict. New York: International Peace Academy. Maiese, Michelle (2003). Causes of disputes and conflicts. In: Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess (eds.), Beyond Intractability, Conflict Research Consortium, University of Colorado, Boulder, October. Available at http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/underlying_causes/. Mehta, Mandavi (2001). India’s turbulent northeast. South Asia Monitor, No. 35, July 5. Overton, John (2000). Development in chaos? Institute of Development Studies (IDS), Massey University, November. Available at http:// www.devnet.org.nz/conf/Papers/Overton.pdf/. Press Information Bureau, Government of India website (http://pib.nic.in/ release). Rothchild, Donald (2003). Third-party incentives and the phases of conflict prevention. In: Chandra Lekha Sriram and Karin Wermester (eds.), From Promise to Practice: Strengthening UN Capacities for the Prevention of Violent Conflict, New York: International Peace Academy, pp. 35–66. Seidensticker, Ellen (2002). Human security, human rights and human development. Kennedy School, Harvard University, February 5. Sen, Amartya (2000). Why human security? Presentation at the International Symposium on Human Security, Tokyo. Sen, Amartya (2001). Global inequality and persistent conflicts. Paper presented at the Nobel Peace Prize Symposium, Oslo. Sen, Amartya (2002). Basic education and human security. Background paper for the Workshop on Basic Education and Human Security, Kolkata, January 2–4. South Asian Terrorism Portal website (http://www.satp.org).

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Tadjbakhsh, Shahrbanou (2005). Human security: concepts and implications with an application to post-intervention challenges in Afghanistan. Les Etudes du CERI, No. 117–118, September. Tadjbakhsh, Shahrbanou and A. M. Chenoy (2007). Human Security: Concepts and Implications. London: Routledge. United Nations Development Programme (1994). Human Development Report 1994: New Dimensions of Human Security. New York: Oxford University Press.

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Chapter 4

A Human Security Index for Orissa, India Subrat Kumar Singhdeo and Manoranjan Mishra

Background of the Study The birth of the idea of human security can be related (if not traced back) to the growing dissatisfaction with prevailing notions of development and security in the 1960s–1980s. With the end of the Cold War, calls for new ways of thinking in security matters grew rapidly. In 1991, the Stockholm Initiative on Global Security and Governance published a document entitled “Common Responsibility in the 1990s”, which referred to challenges to security other than political rivalry and armaments, as well as to a wider concept of security that also deals with threats stemming from failures in development, environmental degradation, excessive population growth and lack of progress towards democracy. Four years later, the Commission on Global Governance’s report, “Our Global Neighborhood”, echoed the Stockholm Initiative’s words on security (Bajpai, 2000). If these commission reports were the precursors for human security thinking, it was only in the early 1990s that an explicit human security perspective was articulated with some rigor. The first contribution was in 1994 by the noted economist, Mahbub ul Haq, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), whose Human Development Report 1994 explicitly put at the center of the formulation the notion that development thinking and policies must take as their focus the welfare of individuals rather than simply the 145

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macroeconomy (United Nations Development Programme, 1994). Similarly, in 1998–1999, the Japanese government endorsed a more comprehensive definition of human security based on Asian values and a greater focus on “freedom from want”. The Japanese approach to human security promotes measures designed to protect people from threats to their livelihood and dignity while supporting empowerment. The second important intervention on human security was that of the Canadian government and various Canadian academics, who led the Middle Powers Initiative. Canada concentrated on the goal of “freedom from fear”, calling for the safety of people from both violent and non-violent threats — a condition characterized by freedom from pervasive threats to people’s rights, their safety or even their lives. Much of Canada’s interest can be attributed to the efforts of Lloyd Axworthy, Foreign Minister of Canada from 1996 to 2000. Table 1 compares the UNDP and Canadian approaches, suggesting that the similarities on many aspects of human security between the two schools of thought probably outweigh the differences.

Table 1.

Comparison of the UNDP and Canadian schools of human security. UNDP school

Security for whom

Primarily the individual

Security of what Personal safety/well-being values and individual freedom Security from what Direct and indirect threats violence, with a greater emphasis on indirect violence (especially economic and environmental factors) Security by what Promotion of human means development: fulfillment of basic needs plus equity, sustainability and greater democratic participation

Canadian school Primarily the individual, but state security is also important Personal safety/well-being and individual freedom Direct and indirect violence, with a greater emphasis on direct violence at both national and international levels Promotion of political development: global norms and institutions (governance) plus collective use of force and sanctions

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The broadest category of definition of human security adds “a life of dignity” to freedom from want and freedom from fear. Defended by the Human Security Network and the UNDP, the combination of security, development and dignity encompasses both material and quantitative aspects of human security. Human security thus seems to appear as an endless debate between its proponents and critics and even among its advocates, who have not agreed on a single unified definition reconciling maximalist and minimalist understandings. However, such disagreements should not be seen as flaws of the concept, which remains new and still on the course towards reaching its matured form. What is most relevant is not how new human security is, but rather what makes it a new concept in both the theoretical and practical realms, considering possible policy perspectives and implications. By designating the individual, rather than the state, as the referent object of security, it has, in its short history, become a concept that realists have to engage with and contest (if not accommodate). The question that remains is this: can human security be successful in challenging traditional security paradigms, or will it simply remain a marginal concept? In other words, can human security serve as an operational basis for action? Human security is a framework that can serve as a means to evaluate threats, foresee crises, analyze the causes of discord and propose solutions entailing a redistribution of responsibilities. Against the abovementioned framework on human security, this study aims to construct a human security index so as to develop a record of the safety and freedom of individuals all over the state as well as the capabilities that exist to combat threats. The study will take the state of Orissa in India as an exploratory case for such an endeavor. Objectives of the study The objectives of the study are as follows: • •

To construct a quantitative measure of human security; To capture people’s perception of threats to human security; and

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To understand the capabilities of governance in minimizing the adverse impacts of various forms of threats to human security.

Location of the study The geographical coverage for the study was the state of Orissa, located on the eastern coast of India. Orissa’s economy is a classic case of the failure of “trickle-down” economics. The benefits of whatever little growth that has happened in Orissa have not percolated down and brought about an improvement in the social conditions of the people. It has failed to generate employment, reduce poverty or improve income distribution. Even the huge investments in the mining and iron ore sector of Orissa, which have been a part of Orissa’s history and should have boosted its net state domestic product (NSDP), have failed to do so. Orissa has the highest poverty rate and the second-highest unemployment rate in India. About 47.15% of its population live below the poverty line, against the national average of 26%. Compared to the national per capita income of Rs. 16,487, the state per capita income is extremely low at Rs. 8,547. In terms of non-income indicators such as the infant mortality rate, literacy rate, etc., the state also fares very poorly. The infant mortality rate is 87 per 1,000 live births, against the national average of 65 per 1,000 live births. The state’s per capita expenditure on education in 2004–2005 was Rs. 479 compared to the national average of Rs. 586. Access to potable drinking water is available for only 64% of households in the state, while for the country it is 84%. In terms of the occurrence of natural disasters, Orissa tops the chart out of the entire country. The state witnessed a loss of Rs. 130,000 crore worth of properties lost and damaged from 1971 to 2005 due to floods, cyclones and droughts. Distress migration has become a regular feature, especially in the drought-prone districts. Moreover, death by starvation and the sale of children in Orissa have been making national and international news. The state government has signed 43 memorandums of understanding (MoUs) since 2002 for mega steel projects with a projected investment of Rs. 23,000 crore, but the potential displacement in different parts of the state has led to widespread agitation. The prevalence of terrorism (by Naxalites) in southern and western

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parts of Orissa has led to the loss of lives of common people and police personnel, and placed a heavy burden on the state exchequer. Within the state, there exist strong intra-regional disparities. In the undivided districts of Koraput, Bolangir (or Balangir) and Kalahandi (KBK), 71.40% of the population live below the poverty line. The combined literacy rate of these districts is about 20% lower than the state average. The poverty rate among the tribal population in the southern and northern regions of the state is 85.5% and 79.1%, respectively. The tribals are mostly dependent on the primary sector (forestry and agriculture) for their livelihood, but the acquisition of land for mega projects and industries has led to their displacement. The absence of fool-proof resettlement and rehabilitation policies in the state has worsened their plight. Thus, Orissa represents a typical case for such an exploratory study on the human security index and governance. Scope of the study/Issues to be covered The study examined the implications of direct and indirect threats to human security in the context of Orissa, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2.

Direct and indirect threats to human security.

Direct threats to human security

Indirect threats to human security

Violence-related — deaths and injuries due to terrorism, communal violence, mass agitations, etc. Dehumanization — trafficking of women and children, physical abuse of women, unlawful detention Discrimination — discriminatory laws and practices against minorities and women

Deprivations — lack of access to basic needs and entitlements (food, safe drinking water, primary health care, primary education) Natural and man-made disasters — floods, cyclones, droughts, heat waves, climate change Underdevelopment — low levels of gross national product (GNP), unemployment, inequality Environmental degradation — deforestation, mining, desertification

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Methodology The following methods were used to generate relevant data and feedback for the study: •

•

•

A review of secondary literature and sources was undertaken. Sources included the Census, Orissa Human Development Report, Orissa Vision 2020 document, government and police department websites, UNICEF report, Orissa Forestry Development document, Orissa Social Watch Report by the Centre for Youth and Social Development (CYSD), Budget Analysis Report by the CYSD, Report on Women Trafficking in Orissa by the National Alliance of Women’s Organisations (NAWO), etc. To capture the perceptions of people, methods such as focus group discussions, key informant interviews and participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools like social well-being analysis were used. For this, field surveys were undertaken in carefully chosen strategic locations in different parts of Orissa. Consultations were held with human security experts such as Dr. Amitav Acharya and Dr. (Ms.) Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh.

Deliverables The following were expected from the study: • •

• •

•

A composite human security index for the state of Orissa, and a ranking of all 30 districts in terms of the level of human security; A human security impact assessment (HSIA) methodology to be used by policy makers, bilateral aid agencies, donors and big industrial houses; A case study on people’s perception of threats to security, as posed by Naxalites in Orissa; Impact assessment case studies of Pohang Iron and Steel Company (POSCO) and National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) in Orissa; and A set of policy recommendations for improving the capabilities of governance in Orissa so as to minimize the adverse impacts of different forms of threats to human security.

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Timeframe The study was undertaken over a period of 10 months, starting from June 1, 2008.

Intended users and potential uses of the study Principal users of the study include the Government of Orissa, the Government of India, the World Bank, bilateral aid agencies and research institutions focusing on human security. Secondary users include donor agencies, civil society organizations, social activists and concerned citizens. Potential uses of the study are as follows: •

• •

Uses for decision making — developing a social early warning system, focusing attention on problem areas, redefining strategies of development, allocating resources and generating new social scientific knowledge; Uses for accessibility — establishing credibility, and setting national and international standards; and Uses for advocacy — lobbying and influencing policy makers, the World Bank, aid agencies and government departments.

Human Security Index for Orissa Introduction The ongoing debate in the academic world over the utility of human security is centered on the feasibility of its measurement. The problem in measuring implies a predetermined definition. The items included in the measurement necessarily provide a de facto list of what is and is not a human security. Moreover, “objective” and “subjective” measures may be contradictory. Subjectively, opinion polls indicate that people in developing countries fear violence more than disease; objectively, however, mortality statistics tell us that the greatest threat by far is disease. How such

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contradictory assessments might be combined into a broad measure is not clear. The construction of a composite index can reveal patterns that would not otherwise be observed. A substantial measurement exercise will inevitably help identify and locate human insecurities. Studying the relationships between multiple insecurities could reveal chains of causality and cumulative impacts not currently recognized, articulated or quantified. The index will therefore provide objective evidence of trends that can be of great value in policymaking and political debate, and can influence public and media perceptions of the issue in question. Selection of human security indicators Human security — like human development — varies widely along regional lines, and thus cannot be understood or applied (let alone politicized) in the same way across all regions. Regional approaches to human security were spearheaded by a series of UNESCO studies for Arab states (in 2005), Latin America and the Caribbean (2005), East Asia (2004) and Central Asia (2006). Each analyzed the multifaceted nature of human security issues in the respective region. It would be interesting to examine how threats are connected from the local to the national, regional and global domain. In view of this, an attempt has been made to develop a set of human security indicators that is applicable in the context of a state like Orissa. While developing the following state-specific indicators, care has been taken to include the three main elements of security: freedom from fear, freedom from want and a life of dignity. The availability of information from authentic secondary sources and periodical availability were also taken as important criteria for the selection of indicators. Number of households living below the poverty line (BPL) Below Poverty Line (BPL) measures the economic conditions of people in terms of the size of operational landholding, type of

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house they possess, availability of clothes, food security, sanitation, ownership of consumer durables, literacy status, status of the household labor force, means of livelihood, status of children’s education, type of indebtedness, reason for migration from the household and preference for assistance. This indicator provides meaningful insights about the vulnerability and overall security of people. Number of people affected by malaria Malaria is a common life-threatening disease that is endemic in over 100 countries, threatening 48% of the world’s population. It undermines the health and welfare of families, endangers the survival of children, debilitates the active population, and stretches the scarce resources of a nation by way of excessive public health costs, low productivity and impaired growth. Malaria affects an estimated 300–500 million people each year, resulting in more than 1 million deaths and 46 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Orissa — a part of peninsular India that makes up 3.74% of the country’s population — contributes 23% of malaria cases, 40% of P. falciparum cases and around 27% of malaria deaths in the country, while 60% of the population are at risk of infection (particularly in tribal districts). The disease is prevalent in both rural and urban areas, mostly among the low socioeconomic section of the population, the marginalized and the disadvantaged. The dynamics of the disease are largely determined by eco-etiological, socioeconomic and water management systems. The economic loss due to each malaria attack is estimated to be Rs. 334, and an average loss of 8.96 man-days per malaria patient is expected compared to 3.84 man-days for other family members amongst tribal communities in Orissa. Hence, this is a very significant indicator. Number of deaths due to natural calamities Orissa has become the disaster capital of India. The state has been affected by disasters 95 times in the last 105 years. Floods have

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occurred for 50 years, droughts have occurred for 32 years and cyclones have hit the state for 11 years. Since 1965, calamities have not only become more frequent, but have been striking areas previously not considered to be vulnerable. For instance, most of the casualties during the severe heat wave in 1998 that killed around 2,200 people in the state were from coastal Orissa, a region otherwise known for its moderate temperature. Number of deaths due to dowry Dowry in India is a social evil whereby the bride’s family has to pay a huge amount in terms of cash and valuables to the bridegroom’s family. Although the government has banned it, harassment of the bride and her family remains very much rampant, even among educated families, often resulting in torture and death of the bride. Such practices have undermined the position of women in society and put their lives in grave danger. Incidences of communal violence Orissa consists of people belonging to different religions (Hindus, 94.35%; Christians, 2.43%; Muslims, 2.07%; Sikhs, 0.04%; Buddhists, 0.02%; and others, 0.98%) and different castes (Scheduled Tribes, 22.13%; and Scheduled Castes, 16.53%). Statistics show that Orissa recorded the highest number of incidents related to communal violence in 2008, compared to other states of India. This is a crucial indicator, as it affects internal stability and leads to death, loss of property and livelihood, and temporary displacement. Habitations not having access to safe drinking water Safe drinking water is a bare minimum necessity for the survival of human beings. The responsibility lies with the government to provide safe drinking water to each and every household. Lack of safe drinking water results in the spread of water-borne diseases among a sizable portion of the population.

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Change in forest cover Orissa is facing a level of environmental degradation that is worse than any other state in the country. Ecology sustains close to 80% of the state’s population. Agriculture and forestry remain the two most important sources of livelihood in the state. However, the loss of forest area has been responsible for the state’s long tryst with disasters. Orissa has been subject to contrasting extreme weather conditions, from heat waves to cyclones and from droughts to floods. About 52% of the state’s land is facing erosion due to deforestation. Forest cover in the state has fallen to 4.72 million hectares from about 6.8 million hectares in 1960–1961. Barren hills lead to a heavy runoff of rain water, resulting in flash floods in downstream coastal areas. The state loses around 80% of its rain water as runoff from these barren lands, thus making water a very scarce commodity. Sources and limitations of data The main limitations are the non-availability of secondary data over a long period (1997–2008) for all the indicators taken, and the changing criteria adopted by the concerned department/authority/agency while giving data for a specific indicator. Missing values have been generated using statistical methods like interpolation, extrapolation and regression analysis. Number of households living below the poverty line Source(s): BPL census (Department of Panchayat Raj, Government of Orissa) for the years 1992 and 1997. The BPL data taken for this study are from the BPL census of 1992 and 1997, while data for the remaining period have been filled using statistical methods. For 1992, an income of Rs. 11,000 per family per annum was used as a criterion. For 1997, the criteria used were taken from the Schedule “A” list of items for exclusion of families from the BPL list (such as having a pucca house, more than 2 hectares of land, consumer durables and a family with an annual income of

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Rs. 20,000). For 2007, the identification of the rural poor through a door-to-door survey was used as a criterion. A score-based ranking of each household indicating the quality of life was prescribed. A total of 13 socioeconomic indicators, each with a score ranging from 0 to 4, were followed. A schedule for the profile of households was also prescribed. States were given flexibility in deciding the cut-off point. The census was challenged by a writ petition of the Orissa government, and until today the data have not been made available to the public. So, the 1997 data used here are from the BPL census, and for the other periods data have been statistically generated. Number of people affected by malaria Source(s): Directorate of Health Services, Government of Orissa (for different years). The figure for the number of people affected by malaria includes only those people who have availed government hospital facilities. The data do not include people who have availed the services of private hospitals/clinics. Number of deaths due to natural calamities Source(s): Concerned District Emergency Officer for the years 1997, 2002 and 2007. Number of deaths due to dowry Source(s): Inspector General of Police, Human Rights Protection Cell (HRPC), Orissa, for the years 1997, 2002 and 2007. Cases not registered with the police department have not been covered. Incidences of communal violence Source(s): Director General of Police, Government of Orissa, for the years 1997, 2002 and 2007.

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Habitations not having access to safe drinking water Source(s): Rural Water Supply and Sanitation, Bhubaneswar, Government of Orissa, for the years 2002 and 2007. The data for this study cover only the rural population. Urban areas and slums are not covered. The data for 1997 have been generated using statistical techniques. Change in forest cover Source(s): State Forest Survey for the years 1997, 2002 and 2007, taking 1995 as the base year. The data available have been calculated by using remote sensing and geo-spatial information systems. Methodology adopted for developing the human security index To derive a composite index from a set of indicators, a wide variety of multivariate statistical techniques are available. The choice of the most appropriate method depends on the type of problem, the nature of the data and the objective of the analysis. In the context of human security, indicators are generally co-related and researchers are not in a position to study the dynamics of security using a set of independent variables. Hence, one has to look into alternative dimension reduction techniques that will enable the researcher to summarize a whole set of information into a manageable form without much loss of information content of the original data. The theme of multivariate analysis is simplification, i.e. to summarize a large body of data by means of relatively few parameters (Chatfield and Collins, 1980). Researchers like the Dandekar Committee (1984), Kundu and Raza (1982), and Sarkar (1999) have criticized the construction of a composite index using ranking and indexing methods because of the arbitrariness and the allocation of equal weights. Kendell (1939) developed a composite index formula to overcome these problems by using interdependent indicators of agricultural productivity, otherwise known as “first principal components” by Hotelling (1933). In

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principal component analysis (PCA), a set of original variables is transformed into a set of uncorrelated variables called principal components. The new variables are a linear function of the original variables and are derived in decreasing order of importance. The objective is to find the principal components which account for the most variation in the original data set. According to Chatfield and Collins (1980), there is generally little point in carrying out PCA unless the variables have similar variance. The conventional way of obtaining the unit variance is to standardize the variables (i.e. make the variables scale-free). In the present study, the indicators are made scale-free by dividing each of them by their respective mean. This method, unlike the other approaches to scale transformation (ranking, standardization, normalization and division by standard deviation), does not lead to a shift in origin of the indicators in a given space. The eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the projection matrix gives the required weight for the indicators, as shown in Table 3. The composite index for the different districts is obtained by

Table 3.

The weight assigned to indicators via PCA. Weight

Indicators

(1998)

(2002)

(2007)

Percentage of people living below the poverty line No. of people affected by malaria (per lakh population) No. of deaths due to natural calamities (per million population) No. of deaths due to dowry (per million population) Incidences of communal violence (per million population) Percentage of habitations not having safe drinking water Percentage of change in forest cover (base year: 1995) Variation explained

0.226 0.21

0.218 0.215

0.211 0.247

0.269

0.324

0.236

0.254

0.249

0.215

0.787

0.766

0.742

0.23

0.213

0.201

0.309

0.327

0.448

68.53%

62.37%

69.53%

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post-multiplying the eigenvector with the original data matrix. The choice of this method of scale transformation is based on the assumption that significant insecurity indicators tend to be unevenly distributed over a space (as opposed to the assumption that insecurity indicators are highly correlated in a space) and that, in the construction of a composite index, indicators with higher dispersion may be given higher weights. Ranking of Districts The human security levels of the districts in Orissa were calculated by multiplying the standardized neighborhood total values for each variable with the dependent variable’s weight, which was previously found using the PCA method (see Tables A1–A3 in the Appendix at the end of this chapter). The last step of the calculation involved the summation of all weighted variable values for each neighborhood and the ranking of districts according to the hierarchy of their variables, as shown in Table 4 (see also Figures 1–3). The most insecure districts in Orissa The most insecure districts in Orissa during 1998 were (in order) Khurda, Kandhamal, Sambalpur, Nawapada and Cuttack. These districts recorded a relatively higher number of natural calamity-induced deaths, dowry deaths and communal violence incidents. In particular, Khurda was found to be the most insecure district because of the higher frequency of dowry-related deaths, squeezing of forest tracts to cater to the needs of growing urbanization, deaths due to natural calamities and communal violence-related incidents. Kandhamal was the second most insecure district because of the higher number of communal violence-related incidents, the acute prevalence of malaria in the locality, the higher percentage of families in the BPL list and the lack of access to the provision of safe drinking water. The district of Sambalpur was ranked third in the ladder, owing to bad performances exhibited by attributes such as incidences of communal violence, incidences of malaria and the dowry-related death toll. Nawapada was the fourth most insecure district due to the wide

30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14

District Gajapati Keonjhar Jharsuguda Kendrapada Malkangiri Balasore Boudh Sonepur Deogarh Mayurbhanj Bolangir Cuttack Puri Ganjam Sundargarh Nawapada Jajpur Orissa

HII value (2002) 0.108 0.147 0.188 0.191 0.212 0.215 0.224 0.230 0.260 0.261 0.281 0.288 0.289 0.296 0.300 0.303 0.308 0.319

Rank (2002) 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14

District

HII value (2007)

Bhadrak Balasore Boudh Keonjhar Puri Gajapati Mayurbhanj Kendrapada Malkangiri Sundargarh Nawapada Jagatsinghpur Jajpur Cuttack Orissa Deogarh Sonepur Ganjam

0.019 0.043 0.082 0.119 0.144 0.166 0.193 0.199 0.201 0.204 0.218 0.232 0.283 0.294 0.302 0.322 0.324 0.328

Rank (2007) 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 (Continued )

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0.154 0.155 0.160 0.213 0.230 0.235 0.237 0.239 0.255 0.256 0.258 0.263 0.268 0.292 0.293 0.310 0.316 0.320

Rank (1998)

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Gajapati Deogarh Keonjhar Nayagarh Malkangiri Sonepur Jagatsinghpur Nabarangapur Sundargarh Puri Mayurbhanj Koraput Bolangir Balasore Bhadrak Orissa Kendrapada Anugul

Human Insecurity Index (HII) and ranking for different periods.

Subrat Kumar Singhdeo and Manoranjan Mishra

District

HII value (1998)

160

Table 4.

Bargarh Jajpur Ganjam Dhenkanal Boudh Jharsuguda Rayagada Kalahandi Cuttack Nawapada Sambalpur Kandhamal Khurda

0.335 0.337 0.341 0.362 0.415 0.417 0.427 0.431 0.451 0.501 0.530 0.530 0.587

13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

District

HII value (2002)

Rank (2002)

Jagatsinghpur Bargarh Koraput Anugul Sambalpur Rayagada Nayagarh Nabarangapur Kalahandi Dhenkanal Kandhamal Bhadrak Khurda

0.339 0.366 0.376 0.380 0.385 0.403 0.433 0.451 0.457 0.468 0.486 0.606 0.669

13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

District

HII value (2007)

Rank (2007)

Koraput Nabarangapur Nayagarh Bolangir Jharsuguda Kandhamal Sambalpur Kalahandi Rayagada Dhenkanal Anugul Khurda Bargarh

0.334 0.366 0.410 0.428 0.454 0.488 0.502 0.523 0.544 0.550 0.630 0.634 0.646

13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Note: Balasore (Baleshwar), Bolangir (Balangir), Boudh (Baudh), Deogarh (Debagarh), Jagatsinghpur (Jagatsinghapur), Jajpur (Jajapur), Kendrapada (Kendrapara), Keonjhar (Kendujhar), Khurda (Khordha), Nawapada (Nuapada), Sonepur (Sonapur).

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Rank (1998)

(Continued )

A Human Security Index for Orissa, India

District

HII value (1998)

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Table 4.

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Figure 1.

Human Insecurity Index for Orissa (1998).

Figure 2.

Human Insecurity Index for Orissa (2002).

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Figure 3.

163

Human Insecurity Index for Orissa (2007).

prevalence of malaria and the large number of natural calamity-induced deaths. The district of Cuttack was ranked fifth in the list due to consistently bad performances in almost all selected indicators. The analysis for 1998 indicates that 50% of districts were below the state average in terms of human security. The most insecure districts in Orissa during 2002 were (in order) Khurda, Bhadrak, Kandhamal, Dhenkanal and Kalahandi. Thus, the three new districts of Bhadrak, Dhenkanal and Kalahandi were among the most insecure in 2002. In the case of Bhadrak, the very bad performances exhibited by all of the indicators pushed Bhadrak to the second position, up from 16th in 1998. Kandhamal was the third most insecure district due to the greater incidences of communal violence and the wide prevalence of malaria. The districts of Dhenkanal and Kalahandi were ranked fourth and fifth in the list, respectively, due to the higher incidences of malaria and natural calamity-induced deaths, the large-scale forest degradation and the lack of access to the provision

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of safe drinking water. The analysis for 2002 indicates that 44% of districts were below the state average in terms of human security. The insecurity scenario in the state of Orissa changed significantly and drastically during the period of 2007. This resulted in a reshuffling of the most insecure districts that now included (in order) Bargarh, Khurda, Anugul, Dhenkanal and Rayagada. Bargarh was the most insecure district, given the host of badly performing indicators such as the large-scale deforestation (and its negative externalities) and the lack of access to safe drinking water. The district of Khurda was ranked second in the list, owing to the high rate of dowry-related deaths and the massive forest loss, steered by unplanned urban growth and industrialization. Anugul was ranked third because of the greater loss of forest area due to increased mining and industrial activities. Dhenkanal was ranked fourth, mainly due to the high number of natural calamity-induced deaths. Rayagada was the fifth most insecure district because of the higher incidences of malaria and communal violence. The analysis for 2007 indicates that 54% of districts were below the state average in terms of human security. The most secure districts in Orissa The most secure districts in Orissa during 1998 were (in order) Gajapati, Deogarh, Keonjhar, Nayagarh and Malkangiri. The district of Gajapati was at the top of the ladder due to maximum forest gain as well as lower occurrences of natural calamity-induced deaths and communal violence-related incidents. Deogarh was the second most secure district due to splendid performances of some of the selected indicators, especially the incidences of communal violence. The district of Keonjhar was ranked third in the list because of the lower incidences of communal violence and the gain in forest cover. The district of Nayagarh was ranked fourth due to the lower incidences of natural calamity-induced deaths, dowry deaths and communal violence. Malkangiri was the fifth most secure district, owing to the large-scale forest rejuvenation, which was the driving force behind the construction of safety nets for rural communities.

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The most secure districts in Orissa during 2002 were (in order) Gajapati, Keonjhar, Jharsuguda, Kendrapada and Malkangiri. Here, the two new districts of Jharsuguda and Kendrapada improved their performances to join the group of the most secure districts. Gajapati was, again, the most secure district due to the gain in forest cover and the very small number of communal violence-related incidents; indeed, the rate of communal violence-related incidents in Gajapati remained below the state average. The district of Keonjhar was ranked second in the list, due to solid performances exhibited by some of the selected indicators. The district of Jharsuguda was ranked third, especially due to the lower incidences of communal violence. Kendrapada was the fourth most secure district because of the very minimal occurrences of natural calamity-induced deaths and communal violence. The district of Malkangiri was ranked fifth due to decent achievements with respect to malaria prevention and large-scale forest rejuvenation. The analysis of data from 2007 reveals a very interesting scenario. Compared to 2002, only Keonjhar continued to remain as one of the most secure districts while the four new districts of Bhadrak, Balasore, Boudh and Puri emerged as being among the most secure districts. The district of Bhadrak was at the top of the list due to the high percentage of forest gain, the increased access to provision of safe drinking water facilities, the lower rate of dowry deaths and the minimal prevalence of malaria. The district of Balasore was ranked second in the ladder, owing to the low rate of poverty as well as the lower incidences of natural calamity-induced deaths and communal violence. The district of Boudh was ranked third because of the lower number of dowry deaths and the presence of required forest cover. The district of Keonjhar was ranked fourth in the list owing to good performances exhibited by all of the selected attributes. The district of Puri was ranked fifth due to the low prevalence of malaria, the reduced incidences of communal violence and the increased access to the provision of safe drinking water. Human insecurity trends over the years The composite score of human insecurity and the ranking has changed over the years in different districts of Orissa. About 60% of

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districts in 1998 and 63.34% in 2002 had moderate to very low levels of human insecurity, while 40% of districts in 1998 and 36.74% in 2002 had high to extremely high levels of human insecurity in Orissa. The Human Insecurity Index ranged from 0.154 to 0.587 in 1998, from 0.108 to 0.669 in 2002, and from 0.019 to 0.646 in 2007, with a mean (standard deviation) of 0.326 (0.114) in 1998, 0.330 (0.127) in 2002, and 0.328 (0.117) in 2007 for all districts. Compared to the overall level of human insecurity for the state of Orissa, the level of human insecurity for the individual districts decreased from 1998 (15 districts) to 2002 (13 districts) and then increased again during 2007 (16 districts). Khurda remained the most insecure district in Orissa from 1998 to 2007, due to the huge amount of loss of forest area for urbanization and the large number of deaths due to dowry. Out of all 30 districts in Orissa, 4 districts (13%) in 1998, 2 districts (6.67%) in 2002, and 5 districts (16.6%) in 2007 were classified as extremely insecure districts after clustering the index for the three periods, as shown in Figures 1–3. Gajapati was the most secure district in Orissa from 1998 to 2007, due to the increase in percentage of forest cover as well as the negligible occurrence of communal violence and dowry-related deaths. Surprisingly, the district of Bhadrak, which was moderately insecure during 1998, was ranked as the second most insecure district in 2002 but then emerged as the most secure district in 2007, bypassing all other districts. This trend is the product of differential performances exhibited by the selected attributes. For example, during 1998 and 2002, about two-thirds of the population were living below the poverty line, but this figure was reduced to 48% during 2007. The number of people affected by malaria escalated from 1998 to 2002, but then plummeted to only 25 during 2007. The other indicators, such as natural calamity-induced deaths, dowry deaths and incidences of communal violence, also exhibited vastly improved performances. Most importantly, the gain in forest cover rose from −0.23% in 1998 to 0.02% in 2002 to around 15% in 2007. A perusal of the level of performance of the selected indicators during the last 10 years reveals striking facts regarding the state of

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human security in Orissa. The performances of the selected indicators are not the same at all: some are improving, but others are deteriorating. These attributes exhibit spatial as well as temporal variations, and these discrepancies are quite evident from the data analysis. For instance, indicators like the percentage of people living below the poverty line and the number of people affected by malaria have exhibited vastly improved performances during the last 10 years. This does not mean that the other indicators are not performing well; rather, the degree of consistency of these two indicators is higher than the others. An overview of the status of BPL holders in all 30 districts over the last 10 years clearly indicates a decreasing trend. This change is quite significant and consistent, in spite of the presence of interdistrict variations. For instance, if we select two districts from the KBK area of the state (say, Bolangir and Koraput), one can easily notice the striking disparity in terms of changes in the percentage of BPL holders. Bolangir has done well in reducing the percentage of people living below the poverty line. During 1998, 61% of the population were BPL holders; this figure was slashed down to 38% in 2002 and subsequently to a mere 15% in 2007. So, for the district of Bolangir, the quantum and magnitude of changes have been quite impressive. As for Koraput, around 84% of the population were living below the poverty line in 1998, and this figure was subsequently reduced to 78% in 2007. Similarly, the districts in the coastal tracts of Orissa have performed better, as was quite evident from the degree of changes that have occurred during the last 10 years. The most impressive accomplishment has been realized in the direction of the number of people affected by malaria. This dimension has improved a lot during the last 10 years, leading to a clear-cut reduction in the prevalence of malaria. Although there exist both inter- and intra-district variations, as a whole all of the districts have witnessed a decreasing trend in the number of people affected by malaria. For example, the district of Nawapada in the western part of Orissa was most malaria-prone in 1998, having 4,325 malaria-affected people per lakh population; but in 2007, there were only 299 malariaaffected people per lakh population. Other indicators, such as dowry

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deaths, natural calamity-induced deaths, the provision of safe drinking water and change in forest cover, have also performed well, but the performances of these indicators lack consistency from a temporal perspective. There is no correlation between development and insecurity in the state of Orissa. Districts in coastal Orissa like Khurda, Balasore and Bhadrak are more economically developed than southern and western Orissa districts like Malkangiri, Kandhamal, Nawapada and Kalahandi; but in the case of the Human Insecurity Index, the ranking is different. Likewise, there is no correlation between the different subgroups of insecurity indicators (development, governance and threats). Governance Indicators The paradigm shift away from national or international security to the security of people has far-reaching implications on actors and institutions at the domestic level. The human security approach does not bypass the state; in fact, the state has primary responsibility for the provision of human security for its citizens. Non-state actors do not compete against but complement the state in their common objective of promoting human security. If human security is a priority, then the government must increase public expenditure through a stronger public administration towards renewed restructuring of social policy financing and provisions permitting everyone to live with dignity. Budgetary allocation and expenditure The state budget is much more than an annual financial statement, for it tells us how strategically and effectively a government makes use of its limited resources to bring about the development of all sections of society. While the allocation pattern indicates the priorities, the actual expenditure pattern reveals the performance of the state vis-à-vis these priorities. It is often observed that allocated funds are not spent on the purposes for which they were intended.

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Social sector allocation and expenditure The expenditure on social services, rural development, and food storage and warehousing taken together is referred to as the social sector expenditure of the state. The share held by the social sector in the total state expenditure has declined over the years, as shown in Table 5. During 1996–1997, the allocation to the social sector was Rs. 2,442.94 crore, representing 38.71% of the state expenditure; and it reached a peak of 45.72% during 1999–2000. The reason behind such a rise in the allocation of more resources was to rebuild the physical infrastructure that had been destroyed by the super cyclone of 1999. International donors (including other state governments in India) responded by providing financial assistance to the Orissa government. Access to elementary education The 86th Amendment to the Constitution of India in 2002 brings in Article 21(A), which states, “The state shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of six to fourteen years in such a manner as the state may by law determine.” Despite this, the status of elementary education in Orissa is very precarious (see Table 6). There are 52,820 villages in Orissa, out of which 12,445 (23.56%) have no primary schools. There are 33,221 primary and 12,449 upper primary schools, making a total of 44,670 schools in Orissa. Of these, 1,889 schools have no rooms, 2,665 schools have no drinking water facilities and 39,131 schools have no toilets. There are about 7,000 single teacher schools. Approximately 80,000 teaching posts (including 42,000 from recently retired teachers) are lying vacant. Primary education is mainly run by Sikhya Sahayaks (para teachers), who are overworked and underpaid. The student dropout rate at the primary stage is very high at 43.5%. Expenditure on health and family welfare The poor performance of Orissa in most of the health indicators has become a major concern. The present immunization coverage

Social sector expenditure as a percentage of total state expenditurea

Social sector expenditure as a percentage of gross state domestic product (GSDP)

Per capita social sector expenditure at current prices (base year: 1993–1994) (in Rs.)

Per capita social sector expenditure at constant prices (1993–1994 = 100) (in Rs.)

2,442.94 2,606.35 3,203.47 4,667.62 3,726.06 3,914.34 4,144.12 4,324.66 4,980.19 5,366.04 6,027.00

38.71 38.02 37.07 45.72 33.73 32.44 31.24 27.78 28.00 31.63 31.63

9.22 8.09 9.00 12.08 9.61 9.04 9.27 8.39 8.78 8.60 8.64

714.31 751.11 910.08 1,307.46 1,029.30 1,066.58 1,114.01 1,144.09 1,290.20 1,365.40 1,499.02

561.56 565.59 646.82 899.83 661.08 661.24 659.96 650.42 694.97 697.13 NA

Sources: Handbook of Statistics on State Government Finances, Reserve Bank of India, 2004/2005; Budget at a Glance for 2005/2006/2006–2007, Finance Department, Government of Orissa. a Total state expenditure excludes ways and means advances and overdrafts from the Reserve Bank of India. Note : RE, revised estimate; BE, budget estimate.

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1996–1997 1997–1998 1998–1999 1999–2000 2000–2001 2001–2002 2002–2003 2003–2004 2004–2005 RE 2005–2006 BE 2006–2007 BE

Total social sector expenditure (revenue and capital) (in Rs. crore)

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Year

Social sector expenditure as a percentage of total state expenditure and per capita social sector expenditure.

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Table 5.

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Share of elementary education expenditure in total state expenditure.

Year 1996–1997 1997–1998 1998–1999 1999–2000 2000–2001 2001–2002 2002–2003 2003–2004 2004–2005 RE 2005–2006 BE 2006–2007 BE

Elementary education expenditure (in Rs. crore)

Total state expenditurea (in Rs. crore)

Elementary education expenditure as a percentage of total state expenditure

587.69 681.56 804.42 1,240.44 1,030.81 983.64 1,077.41 1,083.11 1,121.59 1,256.15 1,321.66

6,310.39 6,854.37 8,642.31 10,209.66 11,047.38 12,064.74 13,266.61 15,564.99 17,787.99 16,964.21 19,053.55

9.31 9.94 9.31 12.15 9.33 8.15 8.12 6.96 6.31 7.40 6.94

Sources: Demand for Grants, School and Mass Education Department, Government of Orissa; Budget at a Glance from 1996–1997 to 2006–2007, Finance Department, Government of Orissa. a Total state expenditure excludes ways and means advances and overdrafts from the Reserve Bank of India.

of children in Orissa is only 57%. The infant mortality rate is 87 per 1,000 live births while the maternal mortality rate is 358 per lakh live births, which are well above the national average. As seen in Table 7, the budgetary allocation for health care facilities from 1996–1997 to 2006–2007 was around 4–5% of the total budget. In 2006–2007 (budget estimate or BE), the share was significantly reduced to 3.55%. The lesser allocation in 2006–2007 went to public health centers, hospitals and dispensaries, General Pool accommodations and Tribal Sub-Area Plans; this is likely to create a difficult situation for health services delivery. The average per capita health spending in Orissa is Rs. 119.76, and its rank is 11th among the states of India for this category. Punjab, with an average per capita health spending of Rs. 223.71, is ranked highest; while Bihar occupies the lowest rank, with an average per capita health spending of Rs. 74.

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Year 1996–1997 1997–1998 1998–1999 1999–2000 2000–2001 2001–2002 2002–2003 2003–2004 2004–2005 2005–2006 2006–2007

Expenditure on health and family welfare.

Expenditure of Health and Family Welfare Department (in Rs. crore)

Total state expenditure (in Rs. crore)

Health expenditure as a percentage of total state expenditure

297.55 325.74 416.70 431.04 483.74 472.65 501.07 569.91 652.34 744.17 677.35

6,310.39 6,854.37 8,642.31 10,209.66 11,047.38 12,064.74 13,266.61 15,564.99 17,787.99 16,964.21 19,053.58

4.72 4.75 4.82 4.22 4.38 3.92 3.78 3.66 3.67 4.39 3.55

Sources: Demand for Grants, Health and Family Welfare Department, Government of Orissa; Budget at a Glance from 1996–1997 to 2006–2007, Finance Department, Government of Orissa.

Presence of police/security personnel in the state The police administration is called upon to perform diverse tasks like the maintenance of law and order, investigation of crimes, prosecution of offenders, traffic control, etc. in order to ensure the safety and security of citizens in the civil society. The recent trend of increasing left-wing extremist activities in Orissa has placed an extra burden for a larger number of police/security personnel. Furthermore, as Orissa is on the path of rapid industrialization, various critical issues like the protection of tribal rights, land acquisition, land rehabilitation, land resettlement and preservation of the ecosystem have emerged with the potential for law and order problems. In view of these, the presence of an adequate number of police personnel in the state is of paramount importance. However, as shown in Table 8, the number of police/security personnel per lakh population is found to be well below the national average of 122 per lakh population.

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Table 8. Number of police and security personnel per lakh population for the period 1997–2006. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 No. of police/ security personnel per lakh population

104

103

107

103

85

102

101

103

99

112

Sources: Director General of Police, Government of Orissa; and Statistical Abstract of Orissa for different years.

Level of corruption It is commonly recognized that corruption, which has become a universal phenomenon, can undermine the finest of systems unless it is kept in check. It eats into the very vitals of civic society, and directly vitiates the relationship between citizens and the state. The general perception is that there is a lack of political accountability in India. The criminalization and compulsions within the police and politics as well as systemic weaknesses in corruption/grievance redressal machinery are the most important factors behind the continuing corruption in the country. The Center for Media Studies in New Delhi, in collaboration with Transparency International India, has been undertaking a corruption study covering all of the states in India. This study is mainly focused on 11 types of services, which are grouped into two broad categories: basic services (Public Distribution System, Hospital, School Education, Electricity and Water Supply) and needs-based services (National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, Land Records and Registration, Forest, Housing, Banking and Police). As per the findings of the India Corruption Study 2005, Orissa ranked ninth out of 20 states in terms of the level of corruption. The state of Kerala was found to be the least corrupt state, whereas Bihar emerged as the most corrupt state. The (Lower) Judiciary in Orissa was ranked among the top four corrupt services in the country. Apart from the Judiciary, the Police, Land

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Administration, Municipalities and Government Hospitals were regarded as the most corrupt departments within Orissa. Similarly, the India Corruption Study 2007 grouped all of the states in India into four categories (moderate, high, very high and alarming), taking into account the degree of variation from state to state and from service to service. The 2007 study placed Orissa in the category of a “high” corrupt state, along with Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Jharkhand and Kerala. Within Orissa, people ranked Hospital, Public Distribution System, Forest and School Education as the four most corrupt departments. Comparison between Human Development Index (HDI) and Human Insecurity Index (HII) The weak correlation between the HII and the HDI is not surprising, given that some of the variability in the standard set of indicators used in the HII was due to variation in dissimilar indicators used in the HDI. The HDI measures the well-being of an area by taking only socioeconomic indicators, but not different kinds of non-conventional threats. Why use the HII instead of the HDI? First, one of the stated goals of the HDI is to achieve a stable indicator; therefore, the HDI may mask much of the variability in human security that can be identified by the HII. Second, the HII has a much stronger theoretical base for both human security and development than the HDI. The HII tries to convert the issue of perception to objectivity by using some qualitative and quantitative data. This is not to say that the HII does not need much refinement; rather, it is a richer and more interesting indicator than the HDI, particularly when developing a composite index for a micro-level study (district, block or village). The work on the HII demonstrates that there is considerable potential for such an index when used in the context of measuring sustainability, development and human security. As international agreements such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change incorporate the goals of sustainable development and human security as key provisions, there will be a need for additional research on indicators for measurement and prediction. Thus, an attempt to construct an HII is a significant initiative in this direction.

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Appendix Table A1.

Indicators of human insecurity for the districts of Orissa (1998).

No. of people affected by malaria (per lakh population)

No. of deaths due to natural calamities (per million population)

No. of deaths due to dowry (per million population)

Incidences of communal violence (per million population)

Percentage of habitations not having safe drinking water

Percentage of change in forest cover (base year: 1995)

Anugul Balasore Bargarh Bhadrak Bolangir Boudh Cuttack Deogarh Dhenkanal Gajapati Ganjam Jagatsinghpur Jajpur Jharsuguda

59.36 73.72 60.38 66.70 61.06 80.20 82.38 78.79 62.63 61.38 55.00 52.75 60.40 49.02

1,827 4,022 1,133 67 2,162 1,236 175 4,220 2,393 1,828 399 26 123 1,082

8.60 20.12 0.00 5.87 2.33 308.28 125.92 12.05 10.04 10.68 2.70 42.14 34.63 178.58

28.67 62.59 13.33 57.01 17.87 0.00 87.09 16.07 58.24 19.22 30.11 40.42 52.27 13.95

3.34 4.97 6.67 8.05 3.96 5.19 6.77 2.81 3.41 6.19 6.87 3.18 4.64 7.53

45.21 15.45 7.89 25.89 6.89 39.89 42.34 34.89 26.89 46.11 26.32 38.56 57.67 28.21

−13.73 1.30 −16.07 −0.23 −11.95 5.67 −4.54 10.00 −16.33 14.95 −13.20 −3.77 −8.59 −3.73

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District name

Percentage of people living below the poverty line

(Continued )

No. of deaths due to natural calamities (per million population)

No. of deaths due to dowry (per million population)

Incidences of communal violence (per million population)

Percentage of habitations not having safe drinking water

Percentage of change in forest cover (base year: 1995)

Kalahandi Kandhamal Kendrapada Keonjhar Khurda Koraput Malkangiri Mayurbhanj Nabarangapur Nawapada Nayagarh Puri Rayagada Sambalpur Sonepur Sundargarh

62.71 78.42 59.89 76.96 59.17 83.81 81.88 77.74 73.66 78.31 67.91 69.13 72.03 59.78 73.02 65.22

2,238 3,839 37 3,347 117 2,268 3,177 2,256 1,147 4,325 515 25 2,366 1,733 1,879 3,427

19.20 6.82 66.63 23.02 105.98 14.16 19.78 33.07 12.98 141.27 3.42 0.00 6.79 225.21 1.97 17.10

10.85 20.46 97.94 51.80 107.75 22.26 39.56 28.21 6.49 98.10 6.83 54.79 9.50 29.93 29.51 18.75

5.09 11.93 3.77 3.02 6.09 3.74 4.18 2.24 4.22 7.46 2.28 7.53 8.69 7.98 3.34 3.97

40.12 32.56 53.56 25.87 11.21 25.67 29.21 24.98 23.56 28.21 19.45 14.56 26.12 45.32 18.56 29.56

−24.09 −14.70 0.00 12.29 −29.53 −5.74 4.89 −7.04 −6.87 0.76 −12.01 0.72 −16.16 −5.74 −6.17 −2.22

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No. of people affected by malaria (per lakh population)

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District name

Percentage of people living below the poverty line

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Table A1.

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Table A2.

Indicators of human insecurity for the districts of Orissa (2002). No. of deaths due to natural calamities (per million population)

No. of deaths due to dowry (per million population)

Incidences of communal violence (per million population)

Percentage of habitations not having safe drinking water

Percentage of change in forest cover (base year: 1995)

Anugul Balasore Bargarh Bhadrak Bolangir Boudh Cuttack Deogarh Dhenkanal Gajapati Ganjam Jagatsinghpur Jajpur Jharsuguda Kalahandi

49.76 58.95 50.00 57.39 37.89 79.31 60.63 87.44 40.89 28.45 34.81 38.30 40.48 39.59 39.65

994 168 324 76 1,538 1,023 202 2,690 1,939 1,800 581 19 310 1,514 1,970

0.00 2.14 0.79 27.85 0.00 0.00 2.27 0.00 7.09 0.00 0.00 9.33 5.05 0.00 3.94

39.94 72.86 22.14 72.89 39.13 38.69 99.20 34.72 62.76 6.33 30.27 50.80 53.63 41.81 10.25

5.76 4.07 6.33 4.34 4.25 6.36 1.93 6.56 5.57 3.37 3.97 2.38 1.32 1.79 7.17

30.75 2.08 4.37 17.66 4.94 35.80 37.53 31.20 20.86 35.61 16.57 33.08 51.86 24.14 5.55

−13.62 0.63 −17.00 0.02 −10.69 7.99 −3.89 7.22 −11.18 8.81 −13.93 −4.41 −5.92 −2.75 −18.26 (Continued )

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No. of people affected by malaria (per lakh population)

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District name

Percentage of people living below the poverty line

177

No. of people affected by malaria (per lakh population)

No. of deaths due to natural calamities (per million population)

No. of deaths due to dowry (per million population)

Incidences of communal violence (per million population)

Percentage of habitations not having safe drinking water

Percentage of change in forest cover (base year: 1995)

Kandhamal Kendrapada Keonjhar Khurda Koraput Malkangiri Mayurbhanj Nabarangapur Nawapada Nayagarh Puri Rayagada Sambalpur Sonepur Sundargarh

76.34 53.90 58.70 56.39 80.88 73.03 60.84 68.33 59.50 57.70 63.56 58.02 47.33 83.75 56.17

5,288 34 1,760 192 2,210 4,242 1,124 1,945 586 5,471 16 3,530 2,842 1,258 5,038

0.00 0.00 0.00 6.27 4.99 0.00 3.78 8.17 0.00 9.39 8.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

35.71 59.29 48.95 149.53 26.97 25.01 28.80 6.13 94.38 8.22 62.29 9.34 33.45 19.64 28.42

7.14 1.28 3.90 7.70 6.39 5.23 2.08 7.56 7.27 2.58 2.89 8.54 8.14 3.34 5.53

22.89 48.68 18.44 0.02 6.30 5.58 17.67 7.33 2.86 14.61 9.94 15.65 37.08 5.83 7.08

−13.20 −0.58 8.43 −27.92 −4.93 6.05 −6.22 −8.44 −1.40 −9.10 −0.64 −8.83 −3.88 −6.64 −1.84

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District name

Percentage of people living below the poverty line

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(Continued )

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Table A2.

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Table A3.

Indicators of human insecurity for the districts of Orissa (2007).

No. of deaths due to dowry (per million population)

Incidences of communal violence (per million population)

Percentage of habitations not having safe drinking water

Percentage of change in forest cover (base year: 1995)

Anugul Balasore Bargarh Bhadrak Bolangir Boudh Cuttack Deogarh Dhenkanal Gajapati Ganjam Jagatsinghpur Jajpur Jharsuguda Kalahandi

40.16 44.18 39.62 48.08 14.72 78.42 38.88 96.09 19.15 −4.48 14.62 23.85 20.56 30.16 16.59

1,355 40 261 25 832 676 119 2,260 1,081 1,341 653 13 199 554 1,710

36.21 1.52 10.33 24.90 8.50 7.64 35.66 0.00 42.27 35.67 5.96 10.60 13.96 16.59 6.75

14.81 27.35 15.50 32.44 9.27 2.55 25.70 17.82 19.73 7.51 12.62 19.27 17.46 13.83 11.25

11.85 2.43 5.53 2.34 4.71 3.82 3.46 7.48 9.21 6.20 4.38 2.02 3.72 12.17 6.67

1.95 1.87 3.23 2.07 3.10 3.23 3.40 10.35 3.74 5.90 1.69 7.60 5.22 5.76 1.36

−13.73 8.37 −30.65 14.59 −17.11 8.90 −2.72 6.64 −11.02 10.46 −11.35 −3.75 −5.68 −3.28 −19.97

179

(Continued )

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No. of deaths due to natural calamities (per million population)

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District name

Percentage of people living below the poverty line

No. of people affected by malaria (per lakh population)

No. of deaths due to natural calamities (per million population)

No. of deaths due to dowry (per million population)

Incidences of communal violence (per million population)

Percentage of habitations not having safe drinking water

Percentage of change in forest cover (base year: 1995)

Kandhamal Kendrapada Keonjhar Khurda Koraput Malkangiri Mayurbhanj Nabarangapur Nawapada Nayagarh Puri Rayagada Sambalpur Sonepur Sundargarh

74.26 47.91 40.44 53.61 77.95 64.18 43.94 63.00 40.69 47.49 57.99 44.01 34.88 94.48 47.12

4,243 22 1,740 180 1,959 2,647 612 1,752 299 3,679 8 4,278 2,628 525 938

11.86 20.80 19.67 14.96 15.50 10.09 4.36 35.30 1.79 13.10 8.44 19.40 29.71 12.74 13.07

7.42 27.48 11.80 29.92 9.12 18.17 11.34 7.43 28.64 6.55 21.81 8.49 12.15 14.56 5.03

3.71 1.34 3.67 7.56 3.37 2.83 0.74 2.51 4.47 2.95 3.59 6.55 10.13 3.64 3.17

0.00 5.76 4.43 0.00 2.70 5.12 3.40 2.44 1.62 9.26 0.31 1.63 5.72 2.94 2.64

−14.37 0.44 10.27 −25.07 −5.90 5.81 −5.24 −8.21 −0.81 −6.84 2.72 −13.14 −3.68 −6.43 −1.34

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District name

Percentage of people living below the poverty line

No. of people affected by malaria (per lakh population)

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(Continued )

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Table A3.

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Bibliography Bajpai, K. (2000). Human security: concepts and measurement. Occasional Paper No. 19, Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame. Chatfield, C. and A. J. Collins (1980). Introduction to Multivariate Analysis. London: Chapman & Hall. Dandekar Committee (1984). Report of the Fact Finding Committee on Regional Imbalance. Bombay: Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra. Hotelling, H. (1933). Analysis of a complex of statistical variables into principal components. Journal of Educational Psychology, 24: 417–441. Kendell, M. G. (1939). The geographical distribution of crop productivity in England. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 102: 21–48. Kundu, A. and M. Raza (1982). Indian Economy: The Regional Dimension. New Delhi: Spectrum Publishers. Renner, M. (1989). National security: the economic and environmental dimensions. Worldwatch Paper No. 89, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C. Sarkar, P. C. (1999). Regional Disparities in India: Issues and Measurement. Bombay: Himalaya Publishing House. Tadjbakhsh, S. and A. M. Chenoy (2001). Human Security: Concepts and Implications. London and New York: Routledge. Ullman, R. H. (1983). Redefining security. International Security, 8(1): 129–153. United Nations Development Programme (1994). Human Development Report 1994. New York: Oxford University Press. Westing, A. H. (1989). The environmental component of comprehensive security. Bulletin of Peace Proposals, 20(2): 129–134.

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Chapter 5

Human Security Impact Assessment (HSIA): A Suggested Methodology Biswaraj Patnaik

Human Insecurity Most people perceive human security as being limited to cross-border military aggression or militancy within a sovereign country, terrorist attacks, extortion, kidnapping, intimidation and other injury-causing physically violent activities. All of this creates fear amongst citizens who, especially those in a democratic political environment, would aspire to have absolute freedom from fear. However, with growing realization, sociocultural studies which are conducted several times over across human societies are showing conclusively that there is a much bigger and more sinister threat to human security that is causing worry and anxiety among vast sections of the populace in all civilized societies and security-conscious communities, no matter what the underlying causes are: fear of want. Perpetual poverty, bad governance, rampant corruption, mindless deforestation and environmental degradation are major threats to human societies everywhere, as the basic needs which allow human beings to live in a healthy manner are not guaranteed. People are deprived of food, shelter, clothes, employment, healthcare, and recreational and cultural facilities. Consequently, clean air, water and grazing land for livestock — without which life is difficult to support — also degenerate and become scarce. 183

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Nation-states are expected to mount programs to free citizens from the bondage or trap of want. Development initiatives are not events spread across miniscule time periods, but instead are to be perpetual (e.g. food subsidies, immunization programs, employment guarantees for backward communities). However, bad governance promotes lumpy, event-like, discontinuous projects that are highprofile in nature and populated by multiple poles of power with vested interests. Mega power plants, river dams, urban multi-lane highways (when rural regions do not even have dirt roads to reach hospitals), mine mineral-based manufacturing units, special export zones/parks, etc. necessarily displace thousands of people from their age-old habitats with life-supporting natural resources (including forests, flora, fauna and clear air), strong culture, linked resilience, selfgovernance, and people-friendly mores and codes. These projects create political and media hype in a complementary manner, ultimately fleecing the poor masses and benefiting the already wealthy, thereby widening the gap between the rich and the poor. The accounting records created may be impressive, but the social and environmental implications are potentially detrimental. The Rationale for HSIA Interestingly, social development initiatives are meant to bring benefits to the masses. But because of the corrupt systems, draconian laws and vested interests, these initiatives go wrong. The desired objective, therefore, is not always attained. People are merely shown a smoke screen that masks the reality, where people suffer from want, a polluted environment and deprivation, leading to a loss of dignity. There are also well-intentioned projects that, due to poor planning or lack of foresight, end up falling short of their objectives. Besides posing potential environmental threats, many lumpy development projects have been found to have adverse human security implications for certain groups of the population. Although a development project cleared after cost/benefit analysis is likely to add net benefit to the society and thus on the whole improve human security by enhancing freedom from want, it may have adverse human

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security implications for some sections of the population. For example, the distribution of benefits from the project may not be uniform across the different groups of stakeholders. Hence, benefit sharing can be a potential source of conflict and a threat to human security. Moreover, such development projects often involve relocation of the population inhabiting the project site. A rehabilitation package generally forms part of the project cost, but the package may not provide full compensation for displacement from the socioeconomic or environmental setup from which the inhabitants have been relocated. Therefore, it is important to assess the impact of any development project on the level of human security in a particular area. The Idea of HSIA Human security impact assessment (HSIA) is the process of identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating adverse effects of proposed development projects by assessing the ills of installed or to-beinstalled projects. The exercise is not aimed at assessing the net aggregate human security contribution of a project. To the extent that the project has a net positive economic return, it is likely to have a positive contribution to the net production of goods and services and hence is likely to have positive human security implications for the potential beneficiaries of the project. Yet, few projects in the world are likely to benefit one section of society without adversely affecting another. The purpose of the proposed exercise is not to negate development projects on the grounds that they may have adverse human security implications. Instead, the aim of HSIA is to anticipate adverse human security impacts, prepare mitigation plans and incorporate them into the project, make contingency provisions for unforeseen fallouts, and incorporate human security monitoring mechanisms into the overall project monitoring system. In the context of Orissa, more so with the rising insurgency in nearly 13 districts of the state, the physical violence threatening life and property is perceived as extremely high. Instances of kidnapping, extortion, gangsterism, rape, murder, and trafficking of women and children are rising at an alarming rate. All of this can be attributed to

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the successful exploration of mines and minerals, which is bringing in sudden riches to a select few with money, begetting more money, pride and the desire to eliminate competitors and rivals in the business. As a result, the common man is very adversely affected. A state of fear has come to stay. On the one hand, more money is being pumped out by the greedy; on the other hand, the long-deprived classes are rising in revolt and promoting militant, terrorist leaders to exterminate the rich, who are generating wealth in connivance with corrupt politicians and public officials. The entire state machinery is under attack, as public officials are technically forced to be pawns in the hands of political executives who use people with money and muscle power. The following factors are explored in an HSIA exercise: • • • • • • •

Poverty, deprivation and displacement; Insurgency; Bad governance; Scourge of malaria/HIV/tuberculosis; Deaths due to natural calamities; Loss of forest cover; and Natural disasters. The following domains are covered in an HSIA exercise:

• • • • • • • •

People’s aspirations; Their knowledge of economic benefits versus sociocultural damage and loss; Environmental implications (global warming, air pollution, deforestation, water scarcity and toxicity); Family and community disintegration possibilities; Politics and governance; Human and social capital issues; Food scarcity as well as lack of shelter, employment and healthcare; People’s wisdom in mitigating disastrous effects, resistance movements and the ability to mount pressure on the establishment;

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Their concerns about physical threats, including gangsterism, extortion and insurgency; and Their own preferred method of resistance and prevention.

A quality impact assessment is only made when the queries/questions/ discussions are designed and framed to ensure clarity of intention and delightful participation for the respondents. The simpler the queries, the clearer the assessment. In most developing and poor countries with very low per capita income, human security perception is predominantly economic in nature. Want is much more frightening than the fear of physical damage or injury. The deprived, disadvantaged communities worry and fear more about the next square meal, an intact roof and bare minimum clothes to hide nakedness. So, freedom from want is more critical than freedom from fear. They are also aware that gangsterism, extortion, militancy and insurgency are not for always; related incidents occur only in darkness, crowds or desolate locations, mostly from unknown directions and without notice. In contrast, chronic hunger, disease, homelessness, bad governance and economic insecurity prevail visibly and, unless strategically drastic measures are taken, the insecurity would persist for a long time or even forever. The objectives of an HSIA are as follows: • • • • • • •

To make participants aware of the impact implications and the rationale of the study; To make clear the time and space limitations and boundaries; To identify and locate alternatives to the intended project design; To provide guidance and clarity on the nature and scale of the issues; To gather critical information on the local geography, community culture and other social characteristics; To help stakeholders understand essential components for involvement and participation; and To sensitize local self-governance functionaries to articulate resistance and protest against moves by the vested interests.

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An HSIA should involve such partners as: • • • • • • • • • •

National and regional governments; Traditional decision-making bodies; Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and activists, communitybased organizations (CBOs) and trade unions; People’s representatives; Media; Public officials; Women’s and youth groups; Academic and popular writers; Business and trade houses (corporate); and Adult students. The following methods can be used to analyze the findings:

• • • • • • •

Systematic prediction and evaluation of each alternative with cross-comparison (“no action” option included); Qualitative investigation; Quantitative analysis; Participatory observation or focus group discussion (or both); Use of primary and secondary data to estimate quantifiable impacts; Capturing of specific ground-level conditions; and Collaboration between HSIA team members and project people (including technical and financial experts). The following mitigating measures can be suggested:

• • • •

Techniques to prevent, minimize or offset impacts; Elimination of or reduction in layout via contingency planning during the life of the project; Maximization of beneficial impacts through specific actions; and Dissemination of correct and credible information, and mechanisms to counter or upset misinformation spread by vested interests.

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These mitigating measures serve to avoid adding conflicts to an existing multiple-conflict situation. Choice of Indicators for HSIA It is amply clear that all communities everywhere feel distressed without guaranteed food, shelter, clean environment, minimum healthcare and economic opportunities. They would care if there was a physical risk involved in attaining these basic needs. They are also sure that militancy, gangster-related activities and terrorism are not common phenomena, but rather occur in isolated locations and situations. As communication technology has broken down all barriers, everybody now knows nearly everything related to governance, economic opportunities, environmental implications, corruption, deprivation, rights and liberties, and political dynamics. Thus, the common masses would not worry about whether there was a rise in insurgency, but would be devastated if there was no food for children. They would not care about the macroeconomic measures including inflation, export earnings and imports. They would show a keen interest in political affairs leading to their happiness. So, the following domainlinked indicators are likely to project the real picture and show trends of situations: • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Displacement woes; Basic needs implications; Environmental problems (forest cover, natural resources, etc.); Disease and incapacity; Employment opportunities; Understanding of governance (corruption, repositioning); Misery due to state apathy; Habitat problems; Cultural or folk wisdom; Flora and fauna; Natural resources; Community leadership; Community resilience based on solidarity;

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• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

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People’s representatives and local self-governance, or misuse of money and muscle power; Road communications and telecommunications; Commodity markets for sale of local goods; Health services; Educational facilities; Youth problems and youth violence; Women’s oppression and deprivation; Gender issues; Insurgency and militancy; Gangsterism, extortion and physical threats; Access to services; Grievance redressal; Cultural and recreational facilities; Agricultural economy vs. industrial economy; Youth degeneration; Trafficking of women and children, and migration of the poor; and Access to information.

Methodology for HSIA Researchers often find it difficult to elicit authentic responses and, not surprisingly, grossly erroneous data often emerge due to respondents’ ignorance. Researchers tend to use jargon that includes technical words related to stakeholding, ecological complications, intricate economic ramifications, people’s aspirations, communication, politics and governance, cultural degeneration and value erosion. Such efforts eventually bring out bizarre projection patterns that are difficult to comprehend and analyze. Therefore, it is necessary for respondents as well as field data collectors to be oriented to the fundamentals of demographics, human behavior, and what pleases or pains people. Respondents need to be persuaded to respond happily, and should be guided inspiringly to answer and respond after being clear about the fundamental issues. In any research, we ultimately come up with comparative statistics with a view to finding deviations and trend projections, namely what

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the status was before and what the status is now. There are two ways in which a research study can compare variables against a baseline measure: •

•

Longitudinal method — The status in the baseline year is compared with the status after interventions are made or after other external factors have affected the original sociocultural, political, economic or any other domain remarkably. A community without any external intervention is scanned and analyzed, and then it is evaluated again after a gap of time after interventions have been made. Changes, both negative and positive, are identified to draw conclusions. Cross-sectional method — Intervention communities are evaluated against non-intervention areas, and the changes are identified and conclusions drawn. Within a given location, contiguous communities are compared with the ones that have come under a program. The impact of the program is measured by identifying the differences between program and non-program communities.

Proposed Model and Guidelines for HSIA An impact is a marked effect or influence, meaning it is felt, experienced, seen and obviously perceived. Development initiatives by any agency — state, non-state or corporate — have a visible impact. If rightly applied and employed, development efforts bear the desired results; if not, adverse effects are marked. Thus, it is necessary to assess the impact of any development project in order to improve upon one’s mistakes and save time, energy and money, with the sole objective of bringing truly qualitative development to the communities in distress. An assessment can help forecast disasters and give directions or strategies to minimize or mitigate the negative effects. It is worth mentioning that an impact assessment is not the same as an evaluation. An evaluation ascertains what has happened by way of results of the efforts by any individual or agency. It does not assess desired results, but only records the standard prevailing picture.

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However, an impact assessment attempts to determine the extent of the desired results for which efforts are made. Human security is threatened on two factors: want and fear. Most poor countries feel the threat of want much more acutely than that of fear. The alarming levels of want promote militant groups to use the element of fear in order to attain social or material goals. Therefore, HSIA should focus on the following domains: • • • •

Economic; Environmental; Sociocultural; and Governance-related.

In terms of the field strategy employed, the following elements are important: •

• • •

A socioeconomic survey of any kind has to use simple, citizenfriendly methods so that the true responses are obtained for gauging the degree of impact. For any single domain, not more than 10 questions or queries should be made to ensure that there is no respondent fatigue. The field researcher must be highly skilled to encounter and negotiate any behavior or conduct of the respondents. The response-seeker has to acquire keen sectoral knowledge so as to ensure that the question/query is clarified in case of a doubtrelated confusion or non-response.

The following methodological techniques are suitable for an HSIA: • •

A plain simple questionnaire not exceeding 36 questions should be given to participants. A focus group discussion should be held with no more than 30 participants, spread over at the most 90 minutes, without a video camera (which can attract attention, leading to wastage of effort). A hidden audio recorder is fine.

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•

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A case study should be conducted to observe and narrate the situation, explain problems or crises, describe intervention techniques and finally present the outcome. The target communities in development research have to be chosen longitudinally and/or cross-sectionally to project contrast in absolute terms, so that comparison becomes easy. The question domains in an HSIA can be as follows:

• • • • • • •

Overall impression (bad or good); Feeling of satisfaction or depression; Reasons for depression (economic anxieties, sociocultural anxieties, environmental worries, political vested interests); Governance concerns (policy-making issues; officials’ inefficiency or apathy, media hype, loss of livelihood); Neighborhood concerns (folk wisdom, community harmony and solidarity, resilience, social capital); Youth degeneration; and Future fear(s).

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Chapter 6

People’s Perception of Human Security Threats: A Survey of Three Naxal-Affected Districts in Orissa, India Subrat Kumar Singhdeo

Genesis and Growth of the Naxalite Movement in Orissa The Naxalite movement takes its name from a peasant uprising that occurred in May 1967 at Naxalbari in the state of West Bengal, India. It was led by armed communist revolutionaries who, two years later, formed a party — the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) (CPI (ML)) — under the leadership of Charu Majumdar and Kanu Sanyal. The leaders, implementing the ideas of Mao Zedong, defined the objective of the new movement as “seizure of power through an agrarian revolution”. The tactics to achieve this included guerilla warfare by the peasants to eliminate the land-owning community and to build resistance against the state’s police force which extended help to the landlords, thereby gradually creating “liberated zones” in different parts of the country that would eventually coalesce into a territorial unit under Naxalite hegemony. The term “Naxalite” has been used synonymously with “Maoist” and “rebel” to denote leftwing extremists.

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Early 1960s The Naxalite movement in Orissa emerged in the early 1960s as a peasant movement in the Gunupur subdivision of the then-undivided Koraput district, under the banner of the Communist Party of India (CPI). In Koraput, according to 1961 census figures, small and marginal landowners, constituting 69% of all landowners, owned only 34% of the land, while the remaining 66% of the land was owned by 31% of big farmers. 1962–1971 The movement suffered a setback when a large number of communist leaders were arrested under the Defence of India Rules during the Sino–India war. The CPI split in 1964, upon which the communists of Orissa joined the CPI (ML) and formed the Orissa State Coordination Committee (OSCC) on March 19, 1968, with D. B. M. Patnaik as its convener. OSCC members were involved in violent incidents, and in 1968 Nagbhushan Patnaik led 5,000 laborers in an attack on the Chitrakonda police station in Koraput and looted all arms and ammunition. On March 29, 1969, Charu Majumdar dissolved the OSCC and merged it with sister organizations in the neighboring states. This resulted in the revolutionary regions of Koraput and Ganjam in southern Orissa merging with the Srikakulam Regional Committee of Andhra Pradesh, the Mayurbhanj and Balasore groups linking with the Coordination Committee of West Bengal, and the Sambalpur and Sundargarh groups in northwest Orissa becoming attached to the south Bihar (now Jharkhand state) Committee. This spelt the end of the OSCC and, presumably, its independence and approach. The movement, which had initially started with poor peasants and tribals, spread quickly to the disadvantaged classes, including educated youth, college students, intellectuals and the landless poor. The newly formed committees started an organized indoctrination of tribals through classes, leaflets and importantly arms training. The first violent incident occurred on February 26, 1971, when the

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extremists killed a school teacher and a “gram rakshi” (a low-level police functionary). The state government reacted sharply to the escalation of violence. Between 1969 and 1971, the Orissa government, with the help of Andhra Pradesh police, attempted to suppress the Naxalite movement. Leaders like Nagbhushan Patnaik, Purna Gomango, and Shivram Panda were tried and sentenced to five years’ jail in 1969. 1972–1996 The movement remained inactive during the Indian Emergency of 1975–1977. In fact, between 1972 and 1996, the CPI (ML) was virtually eliminated in Orissa. Post-1996 period In 1996, the dormant movement was revived by Sabyasachi Panda, an active member of the CPI (ML), and returned to violence. Advocating armed struggle and non-participation in elections, Panda also formed the Kui Labanga Sangha (Kui Youth Association), which later became a front organization for the Andhra Pradesh-based People’s War Group (PWG). Over the last decade, the Naxalites have strengthened their base and have expanded their operations to 15 out of 30 districts in Orissa (Gajapati, Ganjam, Koraput, Rayagada, Malkangiri, Nawarangpur, Sundargarh, Keonjhar, Sambalpur, Deogarh, Jajpur, Nayagarh, Kandhamal, Mayurbhanj and Dhenkanal) (see Figure 1). Modus Operandi Not only has the geographical area of the Naxalites’ operations expanded, but the number of groups targeted by the Naxalites has also increased. In the 1960s, the Naxalites only targeted landlords; but now, they also target police and security personnel, contractors, forest officers, village headmen — in short, any person who, according to them, is exploiting the people. Two peculiar features of the

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Figure 1.

The Naxal-affected (shaded) districts in Orissa.

Naxalite movement in Orissa are that (1) it is confined to the tribal areas, while the coastal districts which are politically more conscious remain comparatively free of Naxalite presence; and (2) Naxalite leaders in the state of Orissa generally play second fiddle to the Naxalite leaders in Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal. At present, 14 “dalams” (squads) of Naxalites are operating in Orissa. The Naxalites have virtually set up liberated zones along with industrial hubs in Orissa by adopting new lines of operations, combining both democratic and violent means to consolidate their position in these areas. As far as tribal regions are concerned, the Naxalites use violent means to maintain their support base. Like Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the Naxalites in Orissa adopt tactical counter-offensive operations to counter police initiatives in tribal regions. They have also been targeting village headmen (“peda”), as they feel that the village headmen are creating obstacles in the recruitment drive and are working in tandem with the police. The Naxalites have been essentially running a parallel government by

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creating a political vacuum, either through killing village headmen or driving out influential persons from the villages. In the emerging industrial corridor around the Jajpur district, the Naxalites are trying to increase their base among the trade unions; this appears to be a marked departure from the approach adopted in southern Orissa. Sources of Arms and Ammunition The Naxalite outfits operating in Orissa are in constant touch with their counterparts in the neighboring states. They procure arms and ammunition from the illegal arms markets of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh as well as from the insurgent groups operating in Northeast India. They also procure explosives from the mining areas of Jharkhand, but a significant proportion of their weaponry is a consequence of looting the state armory and police stations. According to intelligence reports, after security forces stepped up vigil in Tripura and North Bengal, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agents are now using the southern riverine belt on the fringes of the Sundarbans to smuggle narcotics and arms to Bengal and Orissa. The ISI also supplies weapons, which are purchased through agents linked with insurgents in Northeast India, to the PWG and the Maoist Communist Centre (MCC), which are active in pockets of west Midnapore, Bankura and Purulia in West Bengal as well as parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh. The Orissa Naxalites use weapons of the AK series, light machine guns, self-loading rifles, landmines, revolvers and pistols. Sources of Funding The sources of funding for the Orissa Naxalites include extortion, levy, the sale of kendu leaves, and the illegal sale of various forest produces and narcotics. They resort to extortion and ransom from farmers, teachers, contractors, businessmen and whosoever comes handy in their area of operation. Opium cultivation has become a chief source of income for the Naxalites at Chitrakonda in Malkangiri district. Opium worth approximately Rs. 60 million is being supplied

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to neighboring states like Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. The Naxalites use Koraput as a transit passage, moving from Andhra Pradesh to Chhattisgarh, in exchange for trade in kendu leaves and bamboo. Strategically, the Naxalites have identified Keonjhar district as their funding zone, as they collect a huge amount of extortion money mainly from various mining companies in the district.

Recruitment and Training In Orissa, the Naxalites recruit locals or tribals and send them to training centers in Andhra Pradesh. They recruit children between 12 and 16 years old as couriers. This is the first stage of recruiting cadres. After that, they indoctrinate them in regular classes, held in secret places by specialized senior cadres, on books of Maoist philosophy. The third stage is physical exercise and armed training, given especially to those who perform well in the earlier two stages. The Naxalites also hold meetings and visit tribal hamlets to induct women as cadres. In addition, they concentrate on developing their front organizations like Jana Natya Mandali and Kui Sanstrakia Sangathan, which deal with propaganda work including pasting posters, distributing leaflets and conducting meetings. Today, the Naxalite cadres in Orissa are drawn primarily from tribals, agricultural laborers, miners and also anti-social elements from rural areas. Interestingly, the People’s Guerrilla Army (PGA), the armed wing of the PWG, operating in southern Orissa, is dominated by Telugu- and Bengali-speaking cadres, followed by a few local tribals and criminals from within Orissa. The Naxalites derive strength from all sorts of unholy alliances. For instance, two criminals, Congress Das and Ravindra Das, who had escaped from Chhatrapur Jail on August 9, 2003, were later arrested by Rayagada police at a Naxalite camp. The Naxalites are also taking advantage of the lingering tension between the Panas (a Scheduled Caste) and tribals in the Gajapati and Kandhamal districts, as well as land disputes between tribals and Bangladeshi refugees in the Malkangiri district.

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In the last couple of years, however, the Naxalites have been losing support among their traditional bases, particularly with the tribals. This is primarily due to the lumpenization of the movement. In 2003, hundreds of tribals in Rayagada district, who once protected the PWG, virtually declared war against them. The fear of Naxalites had long prevented people from entering the paddy fields in Rayagada district, which affected the tribal economy. The tribal reaction turned into a large-scale revolt, as approximately 5,000 tribals from the Chandrapur and Gudari blocks, under the banner of Kui Kandha Shanti Sangha, started generating awareness among the people of the problems faced due to Naxalites. On October 15, 2003, about 1,000 villagers from Siriguda, Balipanga, Rasem and Rangulguda raided Naxalite hideouts and handed them over to the police. Moreover, the recent cold-blooded murder of Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati, a Hindu religious leader, by Naxalites sent confusing messages about the goal and mission of this group, and contributed a great deal in eroding their support base further among the tribal population. These are only a few such incidents, indicating that the tribals, who were once counted as one of their most ardent supporters, have decidedly turned against the Naxalites. As evident from Table 1, the incidents and deaths due to Naxalite violence in Orissa are less in number in comparison with other affected states. This is also shown in Figures 2–5. State Reaction Up until the last five years or so, the state response towards the issue of Naxalism in Orissa had been a laissez-faire policy. The Naxalites also benefited significantly by the ambivalence of the political leadership on the nature of their movement. Speaking in the State Legislative Assembly in 1995, the then-Chief Minister Mr. Biju Patnaik stated, “The Naxalite movement is a spontaneous people’s resentment against the administration” (quoted in Nayak, 2006). Such a statement, though meant to haul up erring officials and politicians, not only confused the administration but also encouraged the Naxalites to consolidate their hold in the forests of southern Orissa.

Andhra Pradesh Bihar Chhattisgarh Jharkhand Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Orissa Total

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths 461 250 105 355 21 34 30 1,256

180 128 37 200 2 7 11 565

346 239 304 353 17 83 68 1,410

96 117 55 157 3 29 11 468

575 249 254 341 13 74 49 1,555

139 127 74 117 1 31 15 504

310 323 352 379 13 84 35 1,496

74 171 83 169 4 15 8 524

535 186 385 312 20 94 42 1,574

208 96 168 119 3 53 14 661

183 107 715 310 6 98 44 1,463

47 45 388 124 1 42 9 656

138 135 582 482 9 94 67 1,507

Sources: Annual Reports, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India; Naxal Management Division, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India.

45 67 369 157 2 25 17 682

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State

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2001

Naxalite violence in Orissa: a comparison with other affected states.

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Table 1.

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Maharashtra 5%

203

Orissa 3%

Madhya Pradesh 1% Andhra Pradesh 25%

Jharkhand 25%

Bihar 15%

Chhattisgarh 26%

Figure 2.

Total percentage of incidents in all affected states (2001–2007).

Maharashtra Orissa 2% 5% Madhya Pradesh 0% Andhra Pradesh 19%

Jharkhand 26%

Bihar 18%

Chhattisgarh 30%

Figure 3.

Total percentage of deaths in all affected states (2001–2007).

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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001

Figure 4.

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 2007

Total number of incidents in Orissa (2001–2007).

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001

Figure 5.

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 2007

Total number of deaths in Orissa (2001–2007).

The successive government failed to evolve any clear policy on the issue. It is the current Chief Minister, Mr. Naveen Patnaik, who has provided some direction. The state government, under his leadership, is pursuing a two-pronged strategy of strong police action and focused socioeconomic development in the Naxal-affected areas to deal with the Naxal problem.

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The anti-Naxalite measures taken by the state government include the following: • • • •

• •

• •

•

•

Creation of the Special Intelligence Wing (SIW) to deal exclusively with Naxalite-related activities. Creation of the Special Operations Group (SOG). Creation of a special security wing for VIPs. Strengthening of ground-level policing — The fortification/construction work of the Naxal-affected police stations, police armories, etc. has been taken up by optimum utilization of the Police Modernization Scheme, the Security-Related Expenditure Scheme and normal state grants. Upgrading of jail security. Augmentation of manpower — The sanctioned strength of 83 police stations in 17 police districts has been substantially enhanced and, in the process, four special security battalions with 4,157 personnel have been created. Filling up of vacancies by lifting the ban on recruitment for all ranks in the police department. Training — Emphasis is placed on imparting specialized training to the state police personnel in a phased manner. Accordingly, state police personnel are being trained at the Greyhounds Regional Training Centre in Hyderabad; the Counter Terrorism and Jungle Warfare College in Kanker, Chattisgarh; National Security Guards (NSG) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) training centers; and the ad hoc anti-extremist training unit in Malkangiri. A second such unit has been set up in Rourkela, and a training establishment for the SOG is coming up in Chandaka near Bhubaneswar. Weaponry — Sophisticated weapons like the AK-47, SLR, IMSAS, sniper rifle, Glock pistol, MP5, etc. have been procured and provided to the force deployed in anti-Naxalite operations. Mobility and communication — Adequate numbers of heavy and medium vehicles, motorcycles, etc. have been provided. The inter-state communication network has also been streamlined to facilitate an uninterrupted communication network between the bordering police stations.

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•

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Induction of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and India Reserve (IR) battalions — Four CRPF battalions have been deployed in the Naxalite-affected districts. Out of the three IR battalions sanctioned by the central government, one battalion has been raised and made fully functional. Safety against landmines — The government has procured 5 mine-protected vehicles and plans to procure 8–10 more. Surrender and rehabilitation policy — The state government has formulated a comprehensive surrender and rehabilitation scheme that came into effect on June 2006. In a parallel resolve to tread the path of peace with the Naxalites and win the confidence of the neglected tribals at the same time, the government in Orissa has decided not to press charges against 156 suspected rebels in 34 cases and to drop 1,513 minor cases against over 2,000 tribals. Increase in ex gratia payment for civilians killed in Naxalite violence of up to Rs. 2 lakh. Morale and motivation — SOG and SIW personnel have been given a special incentive allowance of 50% and 30%, respectively, of their basic pay. Similarly, other police personnel involved in anti-Naxalite operations have been given 15% of their basic pay as a special allowance. Personnel policy — The amount of compassionate grants to police personnel who die or sustain an injury while on duty has been substantially enhanced. About 12,000 personnel have been covered under insurance schemes for a total of Rs. 10 lakh for death or permanent disability since April 2007. Establishment of strategies for inter-state cooperation. Imposition of ban — The state government has declared the CPI (M) and seven of its front organizations as unlawful associations. Civic action programs — Civic action programs such as Jan Sampark Shiviras, health camps, tribal festivals, etc. have been launched. Socioeconomic measures — The state government has initiated several steps to counter the Naxal influence. These include rapid industrialization; infrastructure development; streamlining of the public delivery system; land reforms; agricultural and natural

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resource management; livelihood programs; implementation of the Panchayat (local self-government) Extension to Scheduled Areas (PESA) Act; filling up of government vacancies; and implementation of time-bound schemes like the Backward Districts Initiative (BDI), Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) and National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS). The state government has set up a high-level coordination committee, headed by the Chief Secretary, to monitor the progress of development activities in the Naxal-affected districts. Although the Naxalite problem in Orissa is widely perceived as a governance problem, the government has tended to treat it as a law and order problem. The presence of Naxalites and the terror created by them has worsened the plight of the common people who, caught between the government and the Naxalites, are the worst affected. Suspected informers are targeted by both the police and the Naxalites. Worse still, around 80% of the developmental projects remain unimplemented in the Naxalite-affected areas, mainly because public officials in all service departments are afraid of physical injury to life and property. The greater the media hype, the less willing state employees are to take up a post in these regions. Interlinkage Between Conflict and Underdevelopment The post-Cold War era has been marked by a changing nature of conflicts that has significantly altered the contexts in which development operates as well as the factors which influence the effectiveness of development interventions. Conflicts are no longer predominantly between nations, but within states. Fifteen of the 20 poorest countries in the world have had a major conflict in the past 20 years, and 22 of the 34 countries furthest away from the United Nations Millennium Development Goals are affected by current or recent conflicts. The relationship between conflict and human security is two-fold: while conflict can be caused by underdevelopment and grievances in the first place, it certainly contributes to the exacerbation of human insecurity once disintegration happens.

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The securitization of development and humanization of security have meant a renewed look at not only the impact of underdevelopment on the likelihood of conflict, but also the impact of conflict on development. Until very recently, however, the political economy of conflict was not an often-studied field in academic or policy circles beyond the economic costs of conflict. Among the various trends of analysis on the root causes of conflict, the debate has centered on theories of “greed” and “grievance”, the latter being a more subjective perception of groups. These new trends have focused on economic and social processes, in contrast to the more traditional analysis on political factors that were said to contribute to conflict. According to the World Bank and the International Peace Academy, the economic agendas of armed factions are often seen as an opportunity for groups to grab booty (Collier and Hoeffler, 1998). Their research findings concluded that “greed” is understood as an opportunity to grab power and resources. On the other hand, the “grievance” model — based on the more traditional perceptions of the reasons for conflict, as revived by Stewart and FitzGerald (2001) and other researchers at Oxford University — concentrates on failures of the social contract between the state and citizens, like inequalities, weak institutions, poverty and lack of social services, as root causes of conflict. However, there is an emerging recognition of the analytical limits that this dichotomy imposes on what are, in reality, extremely complex systems of interactions. As explained below, the Naxalite movement in Orissa cannot be fully explained by using the “greed” approach or the “grievance” approach. Although there is a lot of noise and furore over the Naxalite activities of insurgency in Orissa, one conclusion is indisputable, albeit strangely so. Like in most other regions of India, the self-claiming Naxalites do not have a projected vision or declared mission. There is no indication whatsoever that they are demanding appropriate development action for the backward communities of the non-coastal districts where they have been operating. Not once has it been made clear by the cadres that their mission is to bring socioeconomic and political justice to the long-neglected poor regions. Obviously, without any ideological focus or clarity, the outfits have been focusing

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on making quick money by attracting the misguided unemployed youth with the bait of living a dignified life of “pleasure through courage”. The activities of the Naxalites have so far been restricted to killing police and security personnel as well as police informers, abducting wealthy businessmen and contractors for ransom, looting state armories for arms and weapons, and intimidating corrupt government officials. The state spends colossal sums of human and material resources on containing the physical activities of the Naxalite outfits instead of on planning strategic development programs for locally relevant socioeconomic development. Today, the deployment of security forces is the biggest consumer of resources rather than food, shelter or health security needs. It is quite ironic that what began as a communist-led peasant movement in the Koraput and Ganjam districts of Orissa in the 1960s is now perceived as a huge law and order problem in as many as 15 districts of Orissa. Survey Findings The objective of our survey was to understand the perception of common people about different threats to human security. A total of 120 respondents (40 each from the three districts of Gajapati, Sundargarh and Malkangiri) were administered a structured questionnaire (see the Appendix at the end of this chapter for a copy of the questionnaire). Respondents were chosen in a random manner, but a conscious effort was made to represent a cross-section of the community (such as landless as well as small and marginal farmers, petty businessmen, village “sarpanches” or village heads, elected representatives of local self-governments, school teachers, etc.) in our research sample. Tables 2 and 3 show the profile of the respondents surveyed. Approximately 56.6% of the respondents were in the income group ranging between less than Rs. 1,000 and Rs. 5,000 per month. The remaining 43.4% of the respondents earned between Rs. 5,001 and more than Rs. 10,000 per month. In general, the monthly income of respondents from Sundargarh was comparatively higher than in the other districts, given the greater opportunities for wage labor in the mining belt of Sundargarh.

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Subrat Kumar Singhdeo Table 2.

Male Female Total

Respondents’ profile: gender distribution.

Gajapati (%)

Sundargarh (%)

Malkangiri (%)

Average (%)

95 5 100

72.5 27.5 100

85 15 100

84.2 15.8 100

Table 3. Monthly income Up to Rs. 1,000 Rs. 1,001–2,000 Rs. 2,001–5,000 Rs. 5,001–10,000 Rs. 10,001 and above Total

Respondents’ profile: income distribution. Gajapati (%)

Sundargarh (%)

Malkangiri (%)

Average (%)

0 15 5 60 20 100

0 2.5 50 0 47.5 100

70 22.5 5 2.5 0 100

23.3 13.3 20 20.8 22.5 100

Impact of Naxalite activities On average, 90.8% of the respondents (Gajapati, 100%; Sundargarh, 100%; and Malkangiri, 72.5%) were fully aware that their village had been affected by Naxalite operations, like in many other parts of Orissa. The Naxalites have been active for more than 10 years in the Gajapati and Malkangiri districts; whereas they have made their presence felt in the Sundargarh district, which is adjacent to the state of Jharkhand, only during the last five years or so. More than 63% of the total respondents (Gajapati, 20%; Sundargarh, 97.5%; and Malkangiri, 72.5%) felt that their lives had been affected due to Naxalite activities in their respective villages. The impact on their lives has been on many fronts, such as normal movement, going of children to school, movement of women, living amidst fear, etc. However, only 14.2% of the respondents mentioned isolated instances of families being forced to change their occupation due to the rise in Naxalite activities. Similarly, only 8.3% of the

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respondents were said to have approached government officials because of the difficulties faced due to the activities of the Naxalites. The most affected people are the wealthy or relatively wealthy, who live in perpetual fear of loss of life and property. Corrupt local politicians and state officials are also equally prone to danger of Naxal attacks, including kidnapping or hostage situations. As all of the villages covered in the survey are marked by frequent Naxalite activities, there is a strong presence of security personnel in these areas. Contrary to popular perception, however, the incidences of house raids have been negligible, and 97.5% of the respondents were found to be very comfortable during such raids. Only 2.5% of the respondents reported frisking operations by security personnel. The questionnaire also probed the possible reasons for sustenance of the Naxalites for such a long period. The responses were mixed, as shown in Table 4. In the Sundargarh and Malkangiri districts, a sizable percentage (25.8%) of respondents were reported to have given shelter (involuntarily) to Naxalites in their homes. The majority (97.5%) of respondents expressed their fear of the Naxalites and 71.7% said that they felt very unsafe to live in their villages. Despite the perpetual fear, however, 78.3% of respondents were unwilling to leave their village, even if the option was given to them. People seem to have adopted different coping mechanisms to deal with the Naxalite menace in different districts. This can be seen in Table 5. Table 6 shows respondents’ views regarding the causes of Naxalite insurgency. The responses show a clear trend. The common people

Table 4.

Reasons for the sustenance of Naxalites.

Patronage by common people Patronage by foreign countries Sustained due to their own strength

Gajapati (%)

Sundargarh (%)

Malkangiri (%)

Average (%)

100 50 52.5

65 87.5 75

7.5 2.5 82.5

57.5 46.7 70

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Subrat Kumar Singhdeo Table 5.

Coping mechanisms. Gajapati (%)

Form village protection committee Approach police immediately Keep male community members away from the house at night Fight the Naxalites Remain helpless

Table 6.

Unemployment Poverty and lack of basic facilities Corruption in government offices Weak government policy Frequent police operations High-handedness of the security forces Class conflicts

100 100 97.5 0 0

Sundargarh (%)

Malkangiri (%)

Average (%)

5 10 40

20 7.5 0

41.7 39.2 45.8

55 57.5

2.5 55

19.2 37.5

Causes of insurgency. Gajapati (%)

Sundargarh (%)

Malkangiri (%)

Average (%)

100 100 95 75 15 42.5

100 100 100 100 0 0

80 95 100 85 37.5 47.5

93.3 98.3 98.3 86.7 17.5 30

0

2.5

32.5

95

attribute the root causes of Naxalite activities to poor governance and the failure of the state to ensure public good. The survey questionnaire also attempted to ascertain other sources of insecurity, apart from the ones related to the growth of Naxalite activities. As the findings in Table 7 show, the responses also corroborate the failure of the state. Performance of government-run programs and institutions With a view to gauge the outreach of government-run programs and institutions in these Naxalite-affected districts, the study attempted to capture the perceptions of the community. As evident from Table 8,

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People’s Perception of Human Security Threats Other sources of insecurity.

Table 7.

Food insecurity Job insecurity Lack of money for medical treatment Old age insecurity Droughts and floods Environmental pollution Corruption in public offices

Table 8.

213

Gajapati (%)

Sundargarh (%)

Malkangiri (%)

Average (%)

100 100 97.5

90 92.5 92.5

85 75.5 97.5

91.7 89.2 95.8

87.5 25 90 97.5

45 0 5 32.5

80 30 15 80

70.8 18.3 36.7 70

Benefits gained from government-run programs.

Public Distribution System (PDS) National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) Right to Information (RTI) Act

Gajapati (%)

Sundargarh (%)

Malkangiri (%)

Average (%)

100 5

92.5 7.5

95.5 25.5

95.8 12.5

95

72.5

57.5

0

8

5 0

2.5

access to government healthcare and welfare services remains far from satisfactory. Even if some other forms of minimum basic facilities do exist, the functioning of these institutions is not up to the mark, as captured in Table 9. As all three districts are marked by the presence of Naxalite activities as well as the lack of minimum basic facilities, the community were asked to choose which of the two factors causes more insecurity to them. A majority (85.8%) of respondents (Gajapati, 100%; Sundargarh, 97.5%; and Malkangiri, 60%) cited lack of basic facilities as the main cause of insecurity. A meager 13.3% of respondents (Gajapati, 0%; Sundargarh, 0%; and Malkangiri, 40%) cited Naxalite activities as the principal source of insecurity.

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Subrat Kumar Singhdeo Table 9.

Functioning of government-run institutions. Gajapati (%)

Public health centers Ration shops Primary schools Water supply Electricity supply

Sundargarh (%)

5 67.5 72.5 5 5

Table 10.

0 2.5 2.5 0 0

Average (%)

0 45 2.5 0 0

1.7 38.3 25.8 1.7 1.7

Options to bring about peace. Gajapati (%)

Strengthening of military power Constant peace dialogues with the Naxalites Government should involve the community

Malkangiri (%)

Sundargarh (%)

Malkangiri (%)

Average (%)

2.5 92.5

55 45

0 95

19.2 77.5

77.5

95.5

80

84.2

In terms of the options for bringing about peace, the respondents were in favor of initiating peace dialogues with the Naxalites and involving the community in the entire process of peace-building efforts (Table 10). The current Chief Minister has maintained that he has an open mind about talks with the Naxalites. In September 2004, the government held a dialogue with the leaders of front organizations of the PWG and even allowed a rally in the capital. However, Mr. Patnaik, who has taken the initiative of sorting out land-related cases of tribals expeditiously, expects the Naxalites to come to the negotiating table without any preconditions. Human security, as perceived by the common people, refers not just to the end of Naxalite activities but also to the ability to go about one’s business safely, to have a job, to move around freely, to have access to children’s education, to live a healthy life, etc. Insecurity, as it emerges from the survey findings, is not only a problem of lack of physical safety but also one of deprivation, restricted access to health and education facilities, and scarcity of social and economic opportunities. Hence,

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insecurity should not be dealt with through short-term military solutions, but rather through a long-term comprehensive strategy that abides by promises of development and realization of entitlements. It should promote public policy and state-building efforts that reduce local incentives triggering insecurities in the first place. The Naxalite movement has sustained itself because it revolves around marginalized people of the state. The inaccessible hilly terrain, dense forests, lack of development, grievances of the tribals and poor, and absence of administration have been conducive to the spread of left-wing extremism in Orissa. By taking advantage of the acute poverty and corruption in these remote corners of Orissa, the Naxals have shown people the dream of a prosperous Orissa. It is high time that the government must realize that the Naxals have come to pose a serious internal security problem. The neighboring states of Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have imposed a ban on the CPI (M); as a result of this ban, the Naxals have largely shifted their base to Orissa. It has been more than one year since the Chief Minister of Orissa announced that all cases against tribal people would be withdrawn and that landless families would be compensated on a priority basis. It was also announced that the land disputes involving tribal people would be solved immediately. However, nothing substantial has been done at the grassroots level so far. To combat the ever-increasing Naxalite problem, the government of Orissa must sufficiently increase and manage funds properly in the fields of health care, education, nutrition programs, disease control, irrigation, electrification, rural roads and other basic requirements. The state must ensure that its institutions do not breed exploitation. It must work on a formula based on larger democratic participation in the process of decision making and development. Appendix: Survey Questionnaire People’s Perception of Human Security Threats: A Survey of Three Naxal-Affected Districts in Orissa, India I have come on behalf of a research project on mapping human security in borderline Orissa. In that connection, we are studying

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the opinions of people and interviewing hundreds of people from three districts of Orissa. The findings of this interview will be used for educational purposes. The names of respondents interviewed will be kept confidential. The survey is an independent study and is not linked with any political party or government agency. Kindly spare some time for this interview and answer my questions, as I need your active cooperation for making this study successful.

Personal Information P1 State...……………………………… State code…………….….. P2 District……………...... District code………………….. P3 Block…………………..... Block code…………….……. P4 Name of village/town …………………… Village/Town code……....…. P5 Respondent name…………………… Respondent no………….

Central Questionnaire Q1

The whole of borderline Orissa is affected by insurgency today. Has your village/town also been affected by it? 1. Yes

Q2

2. No

8. Don’t know

(If yes) For how long has your village/town been affected by insurgency? 1. More than 10 years 2. Less than 10 years but more than 5 years 3. Less than 5 years 8. Don’t know

Q3

(If yes to Q1) Has insurgency affected your life at all? 1. Yes

2. No

8. Don’t know

9. Not applicable

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Q4

(If yes) How has insurgency affected your life? Has it affected the following activities? Yes a. Normal movement of 1 people b. Going to the 1 workplace c. Children’s going 1 to school d. Movement of 1 women e. Forced to change or 1 leave your occupation f. Compelled to live in 1 fear, anxiety and suspicion

Q5

2

8

9

2

8

9

2

8

9

2

8

9

2

8

9

2. No

8. Don’t know

2. No

8. Don’t know

2. No

8. Don’t know

(If yes) Has your house been raided by the police or other security forces? 1. Yes

Q8A

Not applicable 9

Has any military operation taken place in your village/town? 1. Yes

Q8

2

Don’t know 8

(If yes) Do you feel that the response of the government institutions has been positive? 1. Yes

Q7

No

Have you approached the government for help when you are affected by insurgency? 1. Yes

Q6

217

2. No

8. Don’t know

9. No opinion

Were you comfortable when the security forces raided your house? 1. Comfortable 2. Somewhat comfortable 3. Somewhat uncomfortable

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Q9

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Subrat Kumar Singhdeo

What is your opinion regarding the sustenance of armed groups? Is it due to any of the following reasons?

a. Common people have patronized them b. Foreign countries have patronized them c. They have sustained due to their own strength d. They have sustained because the government has failed to control them Q10

1 1

2

8

9

1

2

8

9

1

2

8

9

9. No opinion

2. No

9. No opinion

(If yes) Did you provide shelter voluntarily or were you forced to do so? 2. Was forced

8. Don’t know

(If answer is 1 or 2) Were your family members comfortable when armed groups stayed at your house? 1. Yes

Q14

Not applicable 9

(If yes) Did you provide shelter to them?

1. Voluntarily 9. No opinion Q13

2

Don’t know 8

2. No

1. Yes Q12

No

Very often we hear that the armed groups seek shelter in common people’s houses. Have you had any such experience? 1. Yes

Q11

Yes

2. No

8. Don’t know

9. No opinion

Has any family in your village/town left this village/town? 1. Yes

2. No

8. Don’t know

Q15

(If yes) How many? Specify...............................

Q16

Given a chance, would you like to leave this village/town? 1. Yes

2. No

8. Don’t know

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Q17

219

(If yes) Is it because of any of the following factors? 1. Armed groups 2. Security forces 3. Both armed groups and security forces 4. Environmental 8. Don’t know 9. No opinion insecurity

Q18

Has any family from outside come to settle in your village/ town due to insurgency in their own village/town? 1. Yes

Q19

2. No

8. Don’t know

(If affected by insurgency) How do you cope with the insecure situation? a. Formed voluntary village/ town protection committee b. Approach the police immediately c. Keep male community members away from home at night d. Fight out the militancy e. Remain helpless f. Any other (specify)

Q20

Yes 1

No 2

1 1

2 2

1 1 1

2 2 2

Do you believe that any of the following factors are causes of insurgency in your region?

a. Unemployment b. Poverty and lack of basic facilities c. Corruption and nepotism of the government d. Exploitative policies of the central government e. Weak policies of the government to deal with the insurgency

Yes 1 1 1

No 2 2 2

1

2

1

2

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f. Overall insecurity of the people g. Police operations h. High-handedness of the security forces i. Class conflicts Q21

2 2 2 2

There may be other sources of insecurity in your day-to-day life apart from insurgency. Do you feel insecure because of any of these?

a. I do not have enough food to eat b. I do not have a job c. I do not have enough money for medical treatment d. Nobody is there to take care of me e. Water in my area is contaminated f. Theft and dacoity in my area g. Drought/flood in my area h. Riverbank erosion (causing loss of land) i. Environmental pollution j. Growing corruption in the public offices Q22

1 1 1 1

Yes

No

1 1 1

2 2 2

Don’t know 8 8 8

1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2

8 8 8 8 8

1 1

2 2

8 8

What causes the most insecurity to you? 1. Lack of basic facilities (like food, housing, drinking water, healthcare centers, etc.) 2. Violence by armed groups 3. Violence by security forces

Q23

Have you benefited from any of the following government programs/initiatives/policies?

a. b. c. d.

Yes No Don’t know Public Distribution System (PDS) 1 2 8 National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) 1 2 8 National Rural Employment 1 2 8 Guarantee Act (NREGA) Right to Information (RTI) Act 1 2 8

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Q24

Regarding the changes that have taken place in your region during the last five years, have these changes caused the following problems to improve, remain the same or deteriorate? Improve a. b. c. d.

Q25

Corruption Unemployment Illegal migration People’s protests

2. Should be crushed 9. No opinion

Some people say that laws such as the Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act (TADA) and the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) should be immediately scrapped in the interest of peace, while others say that these laws should continue in insurgency-prone zones. What is your opinion in this regard? 1. Should continue 8. Don’t know

Q27

1 1 1 1

Same Deteriorate Don’t as before know 2 3 8 2 3 8 2 3 8 2 3 8

Some people say that the government should negotiate with the insurgent groups to resolve the problem of insurgency, whereas others say that the insurgent groups should be crushed. What is your opinion on this? 1. Should negotiate 8. Don’t know

Q26

221

2. Should be scrapped 9. No opinion

Some people say that the government cannot solve the insurgency problem alone; it should involve the greater society in the process. What is your opinion on this? 1. Should involve the greater society 8. Don’t know

2. Should be tackled by the government alone 9. No opinion

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Q28

Subrat Kumar Singhdeo

Are any of the following public institutions/services (provided by the government) available in your village/ town?

a. b. c. d. e.

Q29

Public health centers Ration shops Government-aided schools Public water supply system Public electricity supply system

Yes

No

1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2

Don’t No know opinion 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9

(If yes) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the government-aided institutions in your area?

a. b. c. d.

e.

Q30

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Satisfied Dissatisfed Don’t No know opinion Functioning of 1 2 8 9 public health centers Functioning of 1 2 8 9 ration shops Functioning of 1 2 8 9 public schools Functioning of 1 2 8 9 water supply institutions Functioning of 1 2 8 9 electricity bodies

Do you think women going out for work are safe or unsafe in your village/town? 1. Safe 3. Somewhat unsafe

2. Somewhat safe 4. Very unsafe

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Q31

We often hear about displacement due to industrial/public projects today. Have you ever been displaced in the last 10 years from your native place? 1. Yes

Q32

2. No

5. Any other (specify)

2. No

8. Don’t know

The calling of road blockades or “bandhs” by movement groups is very common today. Have you ever been affected by such an event? 1. Yes

Q35

2. Flood/Any natural disaster 4. Construction of government buildings/roads 8. Don’t know

Has the government taken measures to address the problems created by displacement? 1. Yes

Q34

8. Don’t know

(If yes) What was the cause of displacement? Does it fall into any of the following categories? 1. Insurgency/Conflict 3. Big dams

Q33

223

2. No

9. No opinion

(If yes) Has it affected you in any of the following activities?

a. Food supply b. Earning of livelihood or daily wage labor c. Emergency medical treatment and children’s examinations d. Any other (specify)...................

Yes

No 2 2

Don’t know 8 8

No opinion 9 9

1 1 1

2

8

9

1

2

8

9

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Do you support bandhs as a form of protest? 1. Yes

Q37

2. No

8. Don’t know

As a form of protest, what method do you support? 1. Violent method 8. Don’t know

Q38

Q40

2. No

8. Don’t know

9. No opinion

(If yes) Where do these arms come from? 1. Arms dealer rackets

2. Armed groups

3. A foreign country

4. Something else (specify)………

8. Don’t know

9. No opinion

It is believed that narcotic drugs have also become a big problem today. Are you aware of it? 1. Yes

Q41

2. Non-violent method 9. No opinion

It is said that many civilians possess arms. Are you aware of the proliferation of small arms in your region? 1. Yes

Q39

9. No opinion

2. No

8. Don’t know

9. No opinion

(If yes) Where do these drugs come from? 1. Drug dealer rackets 2. Armed groups 3. A foreign country

4. Something else (specify)………

8. Don’t know

9. No opinion

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People’s Perception of Human Security Threats

Q42

Do you think the following problems will improve, remain the same or deteriorate in the future in your area?

a. Insurgency b. Your personal security c. Police atrocities d. Corruption e. Kidnapping/killing Q43

225

Remain the Don’t Improve same Deteriorate know 1 2 3 8 1 2 3 8 1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

8 8 8

Please list your preferences for the following options to bring about peace. 1st 2nd 3rd Don’t preference preference preference know a. Strengthening 1 2 3 8 of military power b. Constant 1 2 3 8 peace dialogues with the insurgents c. Government 1 2 3 8 should involve the community

Background Data B1 Your locality: 1. Village 2. Town B2 Gender:

1. Male

2. Female

B3 Age:

1. 18–25 years 3. 36–45 years

2. 26–35 years 4. 46 years and above

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B4 Level of education: 1. Illiterate 3. Up to middle school 5. Undergraduate degree

2. Up to primary school 4. Matriculation 6. Master’s degree

B5 Religion:

1. Hindu 2. Muslim 4. Christian 5. Buddhist 7. Any other

3. Sikh 6. Jain

B6 Caste:

1. Scheduled Tribe 2. Scheduled Caste 3. Other Backward Class 4. Upper Caste

B7 Total monthly household income: 1. Up to Rs. 1,000 2. Rs. 1,001–2,000 3. Rs. 2,001–5,000 4. Rs. 5,001–10,000 5. Rs. 10,001 and above Bibliography [Anonymous] (2003). Naxalite outfits launches recruitment drive in Orissa. Deccan Herald, Bangalore, July 30. Collier, P. and A. Hoeffler (1998). On the economic causes of civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 50: 563–573. Government of Orissa (2007). Orissa Police Naxalite Report (2001–2004). Bhubaneswar: Home Department, Government of Orissa. Jha, S. K. (2003). Naxalite consolidation in Orissa. South Asia Intelligence Review, 2(3), August. Available at http://www.satp.org/. Nayak, N. (2006). Maoists in Orissa: growing tentacles and a dormant state. Faultlines, 17: 127–151. Singh, P. (1999). The Naxalite Movement in India. New Delhi: Rupa. South Asia Terrorism Portal (2008). Fatalities in left-wing extremism: 2005–2008. Available at http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/ india/maoist/data_sheets/fatalitiesnaxal08.htm/. Stewart, F. and V. FitzGerald (2001). Economic and Social Consequences of Conflict. Vol. 1, War and Underdevelopment. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Tadjbakhsh, S. and A. M. Chenoy (2007). Human Security: Concepts and Implications. London: Routledge.

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Index

congenial atmosphere 21 corruption 14, 15, 18–21, 24, 27, 30, 35–38, 44–46, 49, 50, 54, 55 crimes against children 14, 15, 27, 36, 37, 44 crimes against women 14, 15, 21, 27, 34–37, 44 crisis of livelihood 25 cross-sectional method 191

adoption of right approaches and policies 28 agricultural policies 23 armed conflict 58, 59, 61, 65 Arunachal 15–20, 22, 23, 31, 35–37, 39–41, 45–48, 50–54 Assam 14–20, 22, 25, 31, 34, 35, 37, 39–41, 45–48, 50–54 Backward Districts Initiative (BDI) 207 bandhs 69, 85, 86, 91, 97 Bodoland 59, 60 Building and Other Construction Workers’ Welfare Cess Act of 1996 31

depletion of natural resources 24 displacement 25 education-specific work participation rate 38 eigenvalue 32 eigenvector 32, 33 encroached forest area 27, 30 environmental impact assessment 114, 115, 131 ethnic conflicts 22, 41

civil and criminal pendency of cases 28 Commission on Global Governance 145 composite index 14, 32, 33 composite score 19, 33 concentration of police personnel 28, 37 conflict and human insecurity 13

factor analysis 14, 32 feminization of agriculture 227

23

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first principal component 19, 32, 33, 49–55 flesh trade 22 food insecurity 39 freedom from fear 146, 147, 152 freedom from want 146, 147, 152 gap between provisioned and actual spending in social sectors 28 good governance 28, 38 governance indicators 168 “greed” model of conflict 109 “grievance” model of conflict 109 human insecurity index 35, 36, 41 human security impact assessment 113, 115, 127, 183, 185 human security index 145, 147, 149–151, 157 human security indicators 152, 157 industrial policies 23, 24, 31, 39 industrially backward region 22 inequality 22, 40 infant mortality rate 16, 27, 29, 44 insecurity indicators 20, 33 insurgency 65, 69, 71–73, 76–81, 83, 84, 88, 89, 92, 93, 97

labor supply 22, 26, 39 longitudinal method 191 Manipur 14–20, 22, 31, 35–37, 40, 42, 45–48, 50–54 manpower planning 27, 38 mapping of human security 59 militarization 57, 62 minimum wage legislation 22 misuse of money 25 Mizoram 14–20, 31, 35, 37, 40, 42, 45–48, 50–54 morbidity 14, 15, 19, 27, 29, 36, 37, 45–47, 49–52 Nagalim 60 National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) 59 National Rural Employment Guarantee Act 24 National Rural Health Mission 24 National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) 21, 22, 29, 40, 44 National Socialist Council of Nagaland — Isak–Muivah (NSCN-IM) 60 natural calamities 25 Naxalbari 195 Naxalite movement 195–198, 201, 208, 215 North East Industrial Policy 24, 31, 39

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Northeast India 57–59, 62–68, 71, 73, 76, 78–80, 82, 84–90, 92–95, 97–101, 110 occurrence of violent incidents 14, 15, 21, 28, 44 Operation Blackboard 24 Orissa 145, 147–157, 159, 160, 162–175, 177, 179 Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas (PESA) Act 207 people’s participation in decision making 38 People’s War Group (PWG) 197, 199–201, 214 permissive conditions 105 petty tertiary activities 22 political stability 38 poor governance 13 poor human capital formation 21 poorly governed states 17, 20 poverty 14, 15, 19, 20, 22, 24–27, 29, 34–37, 39, 40, 44–47, 49–52 Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) 207 primary health centers 24 principal component analysis 158 projection matrix 32, 34, 51–54

229

ranking of districts 159 ranking of insecurity 19 regional industries 22 rehabilitation plan 25 renewable natural resources 35, 39 resource-rich region 24 rural youth unemployment rate 26, 44 scale transformation 32, 33 school dropout rate 19, 26, 44 social capital 27, 40 social sector allocations 24 Stockholm Initiative on Global Security and Governance 145 sustainable livelihood 24 threats to human security 209 traditional primary sectors 22 transformed scale-free indicators 32 Tripura 14–20, 22, 30, 33–37, 39, 40, 43, 45–48, 50–54 United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) 59, 102, 108, 109