Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions: The Maluku Archipelago in Indonesia 3030935957, 9783030935955

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Dieter D. Genske Giovanni Maurice Pradipta

Establishing Plus-MinusEnergy-Regions The Maluku Archipelago in Indonesia

Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions

Dieter D. Genske · Giovanni Maurice Pradipta

Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions The Maluku Archipelago in Indonesia

Dieter D. Genske Department of Engineering Nordhausen University of Applied Science Nordhausen, Thüringen, Germany

Giovanni Maurice Pradipta Nordhausen University of Applied Science Nordhausen, Thüringen, Germany

ISBN 978-3-030-93595-5 ISBN 978-3-030-93596-2 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Foreword by Lamia Messari-Becker

The United Nations defines 17 Sustainable Development Goals that are universal and focus on people and environment. These include access to housing, water, clean and affordable energy, education, etc. The fact that many countries have a legitimate interest in providing for the basic needs of their populations and also strive for prosperity makes clear that energy consumption will continue to increase globally. It is therefore essential to secure a climate-friendly energy supply and to implement it locally according to the respective possibilities of communities. What makes this atlas so interesting is the fact that an archipelago of more than 1000 islands is mapped here. This means that decentralized solutions are imperative. Electricity cannot be piped to these islands, and transporting fuels is both energy-intensive and environmentally harmful. The atlas project aims to find local solutions to make the settlements sustainable. This is an interesting point: If decentralized energy supply works for a middle-income country like Indonesia, it should also be possible in other parts of the world, not only in Asia but also in countries with long distances between settlements, such as Australia or Russia. Each country has different potentials for renewable energy production, depending on global radiation, biomass resources, hydropower, wind power, and geothermal potentials. This means that each country must be mapped in terms of its potential. Nevertheless, there are certainly significant potentials everywhere, as this atlas project for the archipelago of Maluku illustrates. If such “mapping of energy endowments” was to become standard and translated into implementation on the ground, it would be a great benefit to local climate and environmental protection. Siegen, Germany

Lamia Messari-Becker Professor of Building Technology and Building Physics, University of Siegen (Germany), Member of the Club of Rome, Former Member of the German Advisory Council on the Environment

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Foreword by Peter Droege

Everyone is talking about the Paris Climate Agreement. And yet, it is equally clear that no country on earth is prepared to meet the Paris targets—which themselves were already insufficient—in the foreseeable future. Measures taken so far and the goal of “climate neutrality,” which are based on far too long time frames of 20–30 years, are completely inadequate in the light of climate dynamics. The so-called CO2 budget—the supposed possibility of being able to blow even more exhaust streams into the air without taking any significant risk—is pure fantasy, a convenient fairy tale to push business as usual. Only ending fossil carbon dioxide emissions and removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere through bioregeneration and other measures, and permanently sequestering carbon dioxide on a large scale, can slow this process. Much more powerful climate mitigation methods are needed than are currently being conceived and debated in cabinets and parliaments in Europe and around the world. These include the introduction of a climate defense budget, the start of real climate emergency diplomacy and the ending of armed conflicts, the targeted restructuring of fossil industries and the creation of new jobs, worldwide coordinated strategies to reduce greenhouse gases, the classification of fossil combustion resources as lethal, the rapid development and biosequestration (the renaturation of healthy, climateactive agricultural soils, wetlands, and forests), industrial sequestration (the transformation of all productive industries into carbon-storing processes), new financing mechanisms, and taking full advantage of unprecedented productivity and innovation spurts to create quality employment opportunities for climate refugees. The Regenerative Energy Atlas for the Moluccas Province in Indonesia marks another attempt to highlight the regions’ potential for renewable energy production and carbon sequestration. The archipelago of the Moluccas is one of the most remote regions in the world, spanning more than a thousand islands, with a rather poor economy—and yet, based on this study, the sustainable decentralization of energy supply and the

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Foreword by Peter Droege

creation of a plus–minus region seems possible, even very far away from where the political decisions about the fate of our planet are made. Berlin, Germany

Peter Droege President EUROSOLAR, the European Renewable Energy Association, Director of the Liechtenstein Institute for Strategic Development, Consultant to UN agencies and governments

Preface

Why mapping such a remote place as the archipelago of the Maluku? The trigger was a stay as part of a visiting professorship of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD). We had already carried out regenerative energy planning several times, for example, for the city of Basel in Switzerland, for the International Building Exhibition in Hamburg, or for the region around Lake Constance (Europe). But here, in the midst of these thousand islands, it became immediately clear that island solutions really do have to be sought, i.e., methods of making isolated settlements independent of fossil energies. At the same time, it became clear that the archipelago has a great variety of regenerative energy resources. It was therefore obvious to define a research project, the Regenerative Energy Atlas of the Province of Maluku, which was taken up with great enthusiasm by the bachelor and master students at our university. We even defined the challenge that more renewable energy should be produced on the archipelago than would be necessary to satisfy the demand and more carbon dioxide should be bound than emitted: A plus–minus region should be created. A considerable number of B.Eng. and M.Eng. theses were written and defended, and experts in Germany, in Indonesia, all over the world gave their input. The project developed its own momentum, and in the end it was unstoppable. The result was the atlas with many explanations and recommendations. Thanks to the input of many students and professional colleagues, and with regard to the need for a sustainable energy transition and the 1.5-degree target of Paris, this study was created in the very hope that it will be possible to inspire students and scientists to undertake comparable studies for other regions of the world. Nordhausen, Germany

Dieter D. Genske Giovanni Maurice Pradipta

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Acknowledgements

A number of experts have supported the development of this atlas project. We would like to mention especially the colleagues from Pattimura University in Ambon and Assoc. Prof. Hendry Izaac Elim, Ph.D., who kindly, patiently, and generously supported us to acquire essential data needed for the project. Our utmost gratitude is also extended to the President of Pattimura University, Prof. Dr. Piet Kakisina, M.Pd., and Maria Martha Nikijuluw, S.Pd., M.Pd., Head of the Language Study Centre of the university, who invited us to visit the Maluku Province and gave us the best facilities possible while staying in Ambon. We also thank numerous people in the University of Pattimura, the Government of the Province of Maluku, and the Government of City of Ambon, who have helped us in this project with various ways. We also appreciate the amazing work of the Atlas Team, and all bachelor and master students at Nordhausen University of Applied Sciences. Our combined effort and work inspired us and gave us new perspectives. Our close cooperation, the offline and online conferences, and the help from many different sources has made this project a very good experience.

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About This Book

As one of the fastest growing economies globally, the Republic of Indonesia has a high demand for infrastructure. To support the expanding population and developing economy, all forms of energy infrastructure become crucial. Indonesia also has a unique challenge and opportunity as the largest island country. The Moluccan archipelago (or the Maluku Islands) is one of the most important groups of islands in the eastern part of Indonesia. The islands are famous for their role in the clove trade and were the center of attention of colonization efforts by some European nations from the fifteenth until the nineteenth century. Even though the Maluku Islands are only sparsely populated compared to other islands in Indonesia, the islands are home to about 2.8 million inhabitants. With population growth comes energy demand. One of the fastest risings is the demand for electric power, which will raise up to 994.6 GWh in 2025 (PT PLN Provinsi Maluku, personal communication, March 11, 2020). Adding to the challenge is the isolation of the archipelago. Power transmission to isolated areas, like the Maluku Islands, is a challenge for Indonesia to complete the country’s electrification target of 98% by 2022 (IRENA 2017). The supply of other energy sources like oil, gas, and biofuel has to be sufficient to cope with the developing economy as well. The sustainability and the self-sufficiency of the energy production and distribution is also a key aspect with regard to the economic and population growth of the area. The fluctuation of the oil prices plus the reliance on transported coal, oil, and gas make the development of industry in the area difficult (Shimada et al. 2008). The local consumption of wood as the primary heat source for cooking is not a sustainable choice. Another focus point will be energy conservation. The reduction of overall energy consumption through various means could optimize the energy resource available. Improving energy-saving efforts, increasing energy sufficiency as well as energy efficiency, would increase the financial security of consumers, improve environmental quality, and reduce resource depletion. One of the ways to help solve these challenges is having a robust baseline and accessible data. Better data can be used to have a better view of the energy situation, to be a measure of target accomplishments in making decisions, and to serve as xiii

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About This Book

monitoring mechanism for the development actions that will be taken. These complex and miscellaneous data will be presented in the form of an Energy Atlas. The Energy Atlas is an atlas focusing on energy demand, consumption, and production tied up with geographical information of an area. The combination of the energy data and mapping of an area makes the data easier to access and to understand. The Energy Atlas compares today’s energy demand with renewable energy potentials and projects the demand–production–balance into the future based on possible scenarios. Moreover, integrating the data with geographical information simplifies the decision-making process in energy conservation and urban development. The Energy Atlas will focus on replacing fossil energy with renewable energy. It will thus point out and map renewable energy potentials. Replacing fossil energy with renewable options will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and efficiently contribute to the climate goals of Indonesia. The introduction of decentralized renewable energy production will also create employment opportunities on the island and eventually also reduce dependencies and expenses. The research involved in generating data for the Energy and Climate Atlas is therefore not only beneficial for the islands and Indonesia in general according to Indonesia’s own climate goals1 set by the government but also an ample contribution to the global climate goals set at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris. This project will translate the climate targets of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) into concrete plans and thus mitigate negative impacts such as extreme weather events and sea-level rise. Based on this project, the first regenerative climate atlas in Southeast Asia will be presented. This project underlines Indonesia’s determination to take climate change seriously. It highlights the importance of a sustainable energy transition as a community task in which everyone will participate and from which everyone will benefit (Fig. 1).

1

Indonesia pledges to reduce at least 29% CO2 emission from business-as-usual scenario of the Paris Agreement (according to Climate Action Tracker).

About This Book

Fig. 1 Pulling strong for success: students at Pattimura University in Ambon

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Contents

Part I

Time Is Running Out

1

Why There Is No Time Left . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3

2

City, Urbanization, and Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9

3

Energy by Source and Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13

4

Energy Footprints, the Intra-Muros Principle and Plus– Minus Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

23

5

The Space Resource Principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

31

6

The Spatial Prototype Principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

33

7

The Principle of Closing Loops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

39

8

The Social City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

47

Part II 9

Wonders of Thousands of Islands

Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 Overview of Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 Energy Status Quo of Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

53 53 55

10 The Province of Maluku . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 Energy History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 Energy Sectors and Energy Consumption in the Province of Maluku . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 Status Quo of Emissions in the Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

61 62

11 Ambon Island and Ambon City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 Ambon City and Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 Prototyping Ambon City and Ambon Island . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

67 67 69

12 Methodology for the Atlas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

75

63 65

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Contents

Part III Turning Maluku Towards a Sustainable Energy Future 13 Potentials for Energy Conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 Living . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.2 Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.3 Working . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

81 83 89 92

14 Renewable Energy Potentials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.1 Solar Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.2 Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 Wind Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.4 Bioenergy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 Geothermal Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.6 Thermal Energy from Wastewater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

95 96 100 101 102 108 109

15 Two Scenarios for a Renewable Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 National Strategic Scenario (NSS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 Ambitious Innovation Scenario (AIS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3 The Strategy Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

111 111 112 113

16 The Moluccan Energy Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Part IV The Atlas 17 Atlas and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 18 Mapping Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.1 Mapping Prototypes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.2 Mapping Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 Mapping Renewable Energy Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 Mapping Greenhouse Gas Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

129 129 136 141 145

19 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.1 Sufficiency Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 Efficiency Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.3 Renewable Energy Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.4 Infrastructure Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

149 149 150 151 153 153

20 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

About the Authors

Dieter D. Genske worked as Humboldt Research Fellow in Kyoto and then for DMT Essen. Later, he taught at TU Delft, EPF Lausanne, ETH Zurich, and Nordhausen University. His project work includes the IBA Emscher Park, the 2000-Watt Society for Basel, the BAER-Project and the IBA Hamburg. In 2012, he received the European Solar Prize. Giovanni Maurice Pradipta is Research Coordinator for the Energy Atlas for the Moluccan archipelago. He worked with Hochschule Nordhausen and NewClimate Institute. In 2021, he received DAAD Price for international students for his research activities and international engagement.

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Abbreviations

BPS CO2 CRS DGN EHZ EPSG ESDM FAME GIS GWh GWh/a ha ID IPCC IRENA ITCZ kW LPG LULUCF MW MWh MWp NGO NL OPEC PEF PT PLN PV PWh RUKO

Badan Pusat Statistik (English: Central Agency of Statistics, Statistics Agency of Indonesia) Carbon Dioxide Coordinate Reference System Datum Geodesi Nasional Energetically Homogeneous Zone (synonym to SUP and SRP) European Petroleum Survey Group Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (Energy and Mineral Resources) Fatty Acid Methyl Ester Geographic Information System Gigawatt Hours Gigawatt Hours Per Year Hectare (1 ha = 10,000 m2 ) Indonesian Language Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change International Renewable Energy Agency Intertropical Convergence Zone Kilowatt (1 MW = 1000 kW) Liquefied Petroleum Gas Land use, land-use change, and forestry Megawatt (1 GW = 1000 MW) Megawatt Hours Megawatt Peak Non-Governmental Organization Dutch Language Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Primary Energy Factor PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) (State Electricity Company) Photovoltaic Petawatt Hour Rumah Dan Toko (Home and Store) xxi

xxii

SRP STAR SUP TA UN US VOC

Abbreviations

Spatial Rural Prototype Space Time and Renewables (trademark Epolis Pty Ltd./Liechtenstein Institute for Strategic Development AG LISD9) Spatial Urban Prototype Teluk Ambon (Ambon Bay) United Nations United States (of America) Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie (English: United East India Company)

List of Figures

Fig. 2.1 Fig. 3.1 Fig. 3.2 Fig. 3.3 Fig. 3.4 Fig. 3.5 Fig. 3.6 Fig. 3.7 Fig. 4.1 Fig. 4.2

Fig. 4.3

A look from the Edifício Itália in São Paulo (Bresil) illustrates, how urbanization can change the landscape . . . . . . . . Energy parties with sectors and consumers (adapted from Everding et al. 2019c) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Primary energy ( source energy) versus end energy (site energy) (after Ueno and Straube 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Decrease in primary energy demand for the energy parties living, working, and mobility in the 2000-W scenario . . . . . . . . . Relative end energy demand in the Principality of Liechtenstein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relative primary energy demand in the Principality of Liechtenstein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . End energy demand for the three energy parties living, working, and mobility in the Principality of Liechtenstein . . . . . End energy use in Liechtenstein, divided into heat, electricity, and fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Lake Constance-Alpine Rhine Energy Region (BAER) . . . . . . . . In the plus–minus scenario, more energy could be provided by renewable sources than is needed. From about 2035, electricity generation (a) exceeds demand and heat demand (b) is covered until 2050. Fuel demand (c) can be significantly reduced by encouraging electromobility, promoting pedestrian and bicycle traffic, and stimulating local and long-distance public transport. The surplus electricity is used to electrify mobility and as synthetic methane to heat buildings (Droege et al., 2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . In the plus–minus scenario, more carbon could be sequestered than emitted. This is achieved by reducing fossil energy demand and utilizing natural sinks (Droege et al. 2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10 14 15 18 19 19 21 21 25

27

29

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Fig. 6.1

Fig. 7.1

Fig. 7.2 Fig. 7.3 Fig. 7.4 Fig. 9.1 Fig. 9.2

Fig. 9.3 Fig. 10.1 Fig. 10.2

Fig. 10.3

Fig. 11.1 Fig. 11.2 Fig. 11.3 Fig. 11.4 Fig. 12.1 Fig. 12.2 Fig. 13.1 Fig. 13.2 Fig. 14.1

Fig. 14.2

Fig. 14.3

List of Figures

Classification of Hamburg Wilhelmsburg into prototypical urban and rural spaces (SUP/SRP) in 2007 (Genske et al. 2010a, b, courtesy of © IBA Hamburg GmbH, all rights reserved) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Site plan of Mont Cenis with the original colliery development, the mining shafts, and the new development (Genske 2007) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Glass hall of the academy building with the solar roof . . . . . . . . . Interior view of the Mont Cenis building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A sealed mining shaft with old mine gas outlets. Today, the mine gas is collected to produce electricity and heat . . . . . . . Indonesia with Maluku archipelago highlighted (background: OpenStreetMap) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Capture of Prince Diponegoro, a painting depicting the capture of the prince of Yogyakarta Sultanate in Java by the Dutch (Painting by Raden Saleh 1857) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy diagram of Indonesia (adapted from IESR 2021a; MEMR 2020) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Province of Maluku . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Growth of Maluku’s Electricity from 2015 to 2020 (PT PLN Provinsi Maluku, personal communication, March 11, 2020) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Electricity distribution ratio in Maluku according to PT PLN working districts (PT PLN Provinsi Maluku, personal communication, March 11, 2020) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of Ambon, showing the populated area of the island . . . . . . Extraction of roads and river out of the polygon data . . . . . . . . . . Example of the quadrat survey method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Snippet of the Ambon Urban Area, showing non-residential Prototype 6 (Pink), in between other residential prototypes . . . . General method of developing the Atlas (Droege et al. 2018) . . . Quadrat survey method over areas in Ambon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sankey flow diagram showing energy flow of Ambon in 2019–2020 period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mobility demand projection for road transportation in Ambon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Bioelectricity production worldwide and in Indonesia (IAE 2021). Resources considered are solid biofuels, liquid biofuels, biogas, municipal waste, and industrial waste. Also shown are the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2025 and 2030 SDS targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Biopower production for the National Strategic Trend scenario and the Ambitious Innovation Scenario for the Province of Maluku . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Durian fruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

36

43 44 45 46 54

55 57 62

64

64 68 70 71 74 76 77 82 91

104

106 107

List of Figures

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Fig. 14.4 Fig. 16.1 Fig. 16.2 Fig. 16.3 Fig. 16.4 Fig. 17.1 Fig. 18.1 Fig. 18.2

109 118 119 120 120 126 134

Fig. 18.3

Fig. 18.4 Fig. 18.5 Fig. 18.6 Fig. 18.7

Geothermal Potential Map of Maluku (MEMR Maluku) . . . . . . . Energy balance chart of Maluku, Electricity, NSS . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy balance chart of Maluku, Electricity, AIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy balance chart of Maluku, Fuels, NSS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy balance chart of Maluku, Fuels, AIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Comparison of electricity usage calculation in Ambon . . . . . . . . Prototypes of St Gallen Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cutout from Map 18.2, showing the green spaces outside the utilized spaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Overlay of Ambon historical center with the EHZ of today, historical map overlay from US Army Map Service 1943, titled Amboina Archipelago Series T761 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Topological contour overlay, the red line showing 12.5 m above mean sea level in 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cutout of main urban area of Ambon, depicting prototypes and electricity usage (cutout from Maps 18.3 and 18.6) . . . . . . . Cutout of maps showing electricity usage and fuel usage per hectare (Cutout from Maps 18.6 and 18.7) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Carbon dioxide emission in Ambon as percentages . . . . . . . . . . .

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136 137 139 140 147

List of Tables

Table 3.1 Table 4.1 Table 11.1

Table 13.1

Table 13.2 Table 14.1 Table 14.2 Table 14.3 Table 14.4 Table 14.5 Table 14.6

Table 15.1 Table 16.1 Table 16.2 Table 17.1

Primary energy factors used for the 2000-W Society (Bébié et al. 2009; Berger et al. 2013, 2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sink potentials of different ecosystems (Droege et al. 2012 (Unpublished); Schiermeier 2006; Schmidt 2010) . . . . . . Energetically homogeneous zones (EHZ) in Ambon and Maluku Province [with contribution from Patil (2021) and Ammar (2021)] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential prototypes on the island of Ambon and the model for the rest of Maluku (Ammar and Genske 2021) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy efficiency measures for the residential sector in Ambon (Ammar and Genske 2021) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Overview of PV potential in Ambon Island (Patil 2021) . . . . . . Overview of PV potential in Maluku outside Ambon (Patil 2021) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agricultural production for selected products in the Province of Maluku . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Bioelectricity production worldwide (IAE 2021) . . . . . . . . . . . . Bioelectricity production in Indonesia (IAE 2021) . . . . . . . . . . Total biopower production potential in the Province of Maluku for the National Strategic Trend Scenario and the Ambitious Innovation Scenario Strategic Trend Scenario and the Ambitious Innovation Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . Strategy matrix for the NSS and the AIS for the Province of Maluku . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fuel used in fossil electricity generation in Maluku in 2019 (PT PLN Persero, 2020) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Calculation detail for two example scenarios for PV installation in Pattimura University Azhari, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . Household calculation in Ambon from different sources . . . . .

16 24

72

84 87 98 98 103 103 104

105 113 120 121 126

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Table 18.1 Table 18.2

List of Tables

Tual electricity consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Emission calculation, direct CO2 , Ambon Island, 2019 . . . . . .

141 147

List of Maps

Map 18.1 Map 18.2 Map 18.3 Map 18.4 Map 18.5 Map 18.6 Map 18.7 Map 18.8 Map 18.9 Map 18.10 Map 18.11 Map 18.12 Map 18.13 Map 18.14 Map 18.15

Administrative areas and prototypes of Ambon . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prototypes of Ambon Island with green areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prototypes of Ambon City and surrounding area . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Tual and administrative division with prototypes . . . . . Prototypes of City of Tual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map for electricity consumption (per year) of Ambon City in 2019/2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map for fuel consumption (per year) of Ambon City in 2019/2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Electricity consumption in 2019 and reduction potential in living prototypes with AIS for 2030 and 2070/2100 . . . . . . . Fuel consumption in 2019 and reduction potential in living prototypes with AIS for 2030 and 2070/2100 . . . . . . . Renewable fuel potential in Ambon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Renewable electricity potential in Ambon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of rooftop photovoltaic potentials in Ambon Urban Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . All renewable energy potential in Ambon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CO2 Emission for residential EHZs in Ambon City . . . . . . . . . Emission reduction projection under AIS in residential areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

130 131 131 132 132 137 138 138 139 142 142 143 143 146 146

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Part I

Time Is Running Out

Part I of the atlas explains why a sustainable transformation of regions is absolutely necessary to combat climate change. Building on this, the various actors utilizing different forms of energy are introduced. While they are using energy, they are also using space, leading to the space resource principle, which is presented next. The discussion of spatial resources is extended to explain energy footprints both within the model area (intra muros) and outside (extra muros). To map energy demand and renewable energy options, the mapping area is divided into spatial prototypes that have both similar energy demand and renewable energy generation capacity. This chapter concludes with a general overview of closing material and energy loops and its application to model areas and finally opens the view to building a social city.

Chapter 1

Why There Is No Time Left

In August 2018, Greta Thunberg decided to stop going to school and instead demonstrate for action on climate change. At first, there were only a few who followed her to sit outside the Riksdag in Stockholm, but over time, more students joined in and demonstrated against climate change instead of attending school. What started small eventually became a global movement, the School Strike for Climate, which gained more and more momentum until it was eventually put on hold by the corona pandemic. Covid-19 was caused by us, us humans, who have increasingly invaded the natural habitats of wild animals, destabilized them and weakened their self-healing capacities. Consequently, the virus was eventually transmitted to us, who had no defenses against it. That Greta’s worldwide movement has ultimately been halted by the consequences of a development that has actually been the target of the protests makes this phase of the “School Strike for Climate” particularly tragic. After all, it is ultimately the unchecked, unsustainable growth of humanity and the accompanying destruction of nature that has led, among other things, to the global pandemic against which Greta Thunberg and many others are fighting. Yet the Covid-19 pandemic is only one—maybe the last—warning sign among many that have already been observed for decades and centuries. Since the first efforts of humans to exploit resources on a grand scale, mankind has entered into a Faustian pact, so to speak: Man knew very well that by exploiting natural resources, one would initially become rich and carefree. But at some point, nature would demand tribute and settle accounts with him. Today, we are observing this process of settling accounts—and to an ever greater extent with each passing day. There have been many warnings. When Hannß Carl von Carlowitz (1645–1714) pointed out in his Sylvicultura oeconomica that no more trees should be felled than will grow back, a new perspective opened up. Later, in 1800, Alexander von Humboldt also recognized the dramatic effects of deforestation during his excursion to Lake Valencia in present-day Venezuela (Wulf, 2015). But the idea of sustainability was not only pursued by Europeans. Wherever man dramatically interfered

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_1

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with nature, the effort to preserve it was also evident. In India, for example, 363 villagers died in 1730 in a desperate attempt to protect their forest: Maharajah Abhay Singh of Jodhpur needed the wood to burn lime for the construction of his fortress. The villagers, however, embraced their trees for days until eventually they were all beheaded by the maharajah’s soldiers. They belonged to the Bishnoi community, which still exists today and has 29 commandments (hence the name) prohibiting the cutting of green branches and also the killing of wild animals (Qureshi 2004). Similar historical examples can be found in other parts of the world. But it was not until 1972 that Donella and Dennis L. Meadows and Jørgen Randers presented their report The Limits to Growth to the Club of Rome (Meadows 1972), pointing out that the global community will have reached the limits of growth within the next hundred years. The report has been updated already several times and is still valid. With industrialization, the world population had also increased significantly, and with it, the demand for raw materials, food, and other resources. At the same time, the soil, water, and air were polluted. Ten years before the Report to the Club of Rome, the book Silent Spring by Rachel Carson (Carson 1962) was published. The American biologist and science journalist describes in her book the devastating effects of pesticides on our environment and also recognizes the carcinogenic and mutagenic effects of agrochemicals such as dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). In her opening chapter, she describes a fictional small town where many animals, especially birds, have become victims of the unrestrained use of pesticides. She describes a springtime in which the day begins without the birds singing—and does so in such a powerful way that her book not only won many awards and led to the creation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but also sparked a worldwide environmental movement. Nevertheless, with a growing population, the production of waste increased steadily. The waste was often simply dumped on landfills. Dust and leachate from landfills caused significant environmental problems. Still today, waste is washed untreated into the sea. It is estimated that about eight Mio. Tons of plastic (i.e., 3% of the world’s annual plastic waste) end up in the oceans every year (Ritchie and Roser 2018). There it is ingested by fish and other aquatic animals and devoured by seabirds, which subsequently perish. In the second half of the twentieth century, environmental awareness increased among the population. In the 1970s, the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) was established. In 1980, the Global 2000-Study, commissioned by U.S. President Jimmy Carter, was published, with projections of population growth, resource depletion, and environmental degradation (Barney 1980). In 1983, the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) was founded under the chairmanship of Gro Harlem Brundtland, and four years later, the report Our Common Future was published, in which the term Sustainable Development was eventually defined. The Brundtland Report prepared the world community for the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, which took place in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. This international meeting, also referred to as the Earth Summit, was attended

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by 172 governments and some 2400 representatives of non-governmental organizations. The paradigm of “sustainable development” was established as the guiding principle for the future development of our planet. The course was set for the reduction of environmental toxins, the sustainable use of resources (especially water), the replacement of fossil fuels by regenerative energy and the protection of our natural environment. The conference also addressed social and economic problems that are closely linked to the sustainable use of our resources. The conference was the largest diplomatic event of the twentieth century and a social turning point. It resulted in the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development that is linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and all Agenda 21-Processes with their ecological, economic, and social recommendations for action. In the course of this development, Matthias Wackernagel and William Rees coined the term Ecological Footprint (Rees and Wackernagel 1992). Every human being claims space to satisfy his needs. He claims the sea and waters to catch fish. He claims arable land to produce food. He claims pasture land for dairy, wool, leather, and meat production. He claims forest land to provide fuelwood, timber, lumber, and pulp. He uses the land to build settlements, infrastructure, and industrial plants. He destroys land for mining and with landfills. Nature’s capacity to meet these human needs is called biocapacity. If human demand (i.e., the ecological footprint) exceeds natural supply (i.e., its biocapacity), then the system is overexploited, and an ecological deficit occurs. This stage of overuse is also called overshoot. While in 1974, the overshoot day was still in December, in 2018, it already advanced to August 1 (GFN 2021). Every year, the planet’s natural resources are being consumed at a faster rate, and the global footprint is growing ever larger. While the global footprint increases, biodiversity is declining dramatically on our planet. The population of terrestrial species has decreased by almost 38% between 1970 and 2012. The population of marine species has decreased by 36% and that of freshwater species by 81% in the same period. Each year, about 2% of all vertebrate species become extinct. The 2020 Global Living Planet Index shows an average 68% decline in recorded populations of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fish between 1970 and 2016 (WWF 2016, 2020). If we look at the last 500 years, it becomes clear that the global temperature, like the population, has been rising steadily and that it rises even exponentially since the beginning of industrialization. The reason for this is the ever-increasing energy demand of mankind. This energy is necessary to run machines, to provide electricity and heat, to enable mobility, and it is largely based on fossil resources such as coal, oil, and gas. The burning of fossil fuels is accompanied by the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2 ). In simple terms, the carbon that was stocked in coal (previously wood), petroleum, and gas (previously marine organic sediments) is released back into the atmosphere, where it combines with oxygen. CO2 retains the solar radiation hitting the earth, like in a greenhouse. This effect was described as early as 1824 by the French mathematician and physicist Joseph Fourier (1768–1830) in his “Mémoire sur les températures du globe terrestre et les espaces planétaires.” Fourier called it “non-luminous radiant heat”. In 1958, Charles David Keeling (1928–2005) began

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directly measuring CO2 levels on the Hawaiian volcano Mauna Loa. Since then, the “Kneeling Curve” shows, on the one hand, the seasonal fluctuations of the CO2 content due to the foliage and defoliation of the forests, but on the other hand, it also illustrates the steady increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. As CO2 levels rise, so does the average global temperature. It should be noted that CO2 is just one driver of climate change. In addition to CO2 , there are other greenhouse gases (GHGs) released by human activities such as agriculture and industry. These include methane (CH4 ), nitrous oxide (N2 O), and synthetic gases such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 ), and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3 ). The effectiveness of these gases on the climate is expressed in terms of their global warming potential (GWP) relative to CO2 . CO2 has a GWP of 1.0, and other greenhouse gases have GWPs many times higher. Multiplying the emission of greenhouse gas by its global warming potential yields emissions in CO2 -equivalents (CO2eq ). Depending on the time period considered, different GWP values result since different gases have different residence times in the atmosphere. For the greenhouse gas methane, for example, the GWP would be 28–30 (for a period of 100 years). Methane is, therefore, up to 30 times more effective as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Since industrialization, enormous quantities of greenhouse gases have been released unchecked into our atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), founded in 1988 by United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), states that over the last three decades, the average global temperature has constantly been rising. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature has increased by about 1 °C from 1880 to today. The period from 1982 to 2012 was the warmest in the last 1400 years. So far, most of the heat (over 90%) has been absorbed by the oceans. Only about 3% contributed to the melting of glaciers, 3% has caused continental warming, and just 1% has caused atmospheric warming (IPCC 2014). Ever since scientists from all over the world met in 1979 for the first World Climate Conference, it has been claimed repeatedly that the observed rise in temperature and extreme weather events as recorded in the last years is due to natural causes and is not man-made. According to the reconstruction of the historical climate data and their projection into the future (which is now possible), this claim is not true. In order to dispel the last doubts, the IPCC compared the temperature increase without anthropogenic greenhouse gases with the temperature increase with anthropogenic greenhouse gases in elaborate model calculations. According to their results, it is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the global average temperature increase between 1951 and 2010 (IPCC 2014). Due to increasing temperatures, already in the twentieth century, the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica began to melt. In addition, thermal expansion of the oceans occurred as a result of the temperature increase. The melting of the glaciers and the thermal expansion has led to a rise in sea level of almost 20 cm in the twentieth century. In the twenty-first century, the sea level will rise another 30–60 cm (IPCCscenario RCP2.6). In the worst case (IPCC-scenario RCP8.5), there could be a rise of up to 1 m. In this case, the Arctic sea ice (which does not influence sea level) would

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have disappeared, and about 80% of the permafrost of the northern tundra would have melted (IPCC 2014). With the thawing of the permafrost, enormous amounts of the greenhouse gas methane would be released, which in turn would accelerate climate change. In addition to sea level rise, the upper ocean (0–700 m) was found to have warmed between 1971 and 2010. By the end of the twenty-first century, the top hundred meters of the oceans will warm by another 0.6 °C (RCP2.6). However, in the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5), ocean warming of up to 2.0 °C would occur (IPCC 2014). In this case, there would be a risk that the methane hydrates bound in the seafloor would melt spontaneously and that large quantities of methane would also be released. Then, another tipping element (Schellnhuber 2015) would fuel global climate change. The increase in water temperature favors the uptake of CO2 . The oceans have so far absorbed almost one-third of the anthropogenic CO2 . This has led to a decrease in pH to 8.1 (in 2000) and thus to ocean acidification. By the end of the twenty-first century, sea surface pH will stabilize at 8.0 to 8.1 in the best-case scenario (RCP2.6) but will drop to 7.8 in the RCP8.5 scenario (IPCC 2014). As a result, many marine animals, especially those that build shells and those that feed on them, would die off, as would coral reefs, which are already beginning to bleach out at an alarming rate. Eventually, this would lead to the collapse of marine food chains. Due to the warming of the atmosphere, the temperature contrast between the poles and the equator decreases. This has a direct impact on ocean currents, which regulate the heat balance between the tropics and the poles. The diminishing temperature contrast slows down the Gulf Stream and its northern continuation, the North Atlantic Current, which supplies northern Europe with heat. But salinity also influences ocean currents. If the surface water of the North Atlantic Current, which is salty and thus heavy as a result of evaporation, is diluted at the poles with more and more meltwater, it no longer sinks in the North Atlantic, and the so-called thermohaline circulation (the “global conveyor belt”) comes to a standstill. In this case, heat would no longer be transported from the equator to Europe, and the climate would cool down significantly in a short time. The ice age would return (Rahmstorf et al. 2015; Schellnhuber 2015). A similar effect can be observed in the global wind bands, the jet streams. The weather pattern in Europe is under the influence of the polar jet stream. It occurs at an altitude of about 10 km and reaches velocities of more than 500 km/h. As a result of the fading of the temperature contrast between the pole and the equator, the polar jet stream (as well as the more southerly subtropical jet stream) also slows down (Schellnhuber 2015). Consequently, special weather patterns can develop, such as the so-called omega situation. This is a high-pressure zone flanked by two smaller lowpressure zones (east and west). In this weather situation, the jet stream forms a Greek omega  on the isobaric map. For days, sometimes weeks, the weakening jet stream fails to resolve this omega and to form a new weather system. A stable high-pressure situation is created, leading to a persistent cold wave in winter and a persistent heat wave in summer (Horton et al. 2015). In addition, there is an increasing number of extreme weather events such as droughts (as in South Africa’s Cape Province in 2015–2019), devastating storms (such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005), accompanied

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by opportunistic disasters such as floods, landslides and mudslides (caused by heavy rainfall), or bushfires (such as the “Black Summer” in Australia in 2019–2020). At the beginning of the twentieth century, the body weight of all humans was still equal to that of all wild mammals; today it is ten times greater: “Of a single one of its countless animal species... [our earth] is dominated - and demolished” (Die Zeit 14.09.2017). Recently, the Weizmann Institute of Science published a study stating that by 2020, the mass of all human-produced materials will be as large as the biomass on our planet, i.e., all living organisms such as plants, animals, and even roots, fungi, bacteria, and viruses (Elhacham et al. 2020). For example, the Eiffel Tower weighs about as much as the last remaining 10,000 rhinoceroses, and the weight of all man-made objects in New York City is equal to the weight of all the fish on our planet (https://anthropomass.org/). The rate at which we add new manmade materials such as buildings, roads, waste, etc.—the anthropogenic mass—doubles every 20 years. At the beginning of the twentieth century, human-induced anthropogenic mass was only about 3% of total biomass. Today, by contrast, for every person on Earth, an amount of anthropogenic mass greater than his or her body weight is produced every week. The Anthropocene proclaimed by Paul Crutzen (2002) together with Eugene F. Stoermer (2000), i.e., the beginning of the age in which man has become a “geological” factor that fundamentally changes our planet, now definitely seems to have dawned. We seem to be increasingly crossing tipping points that will make life on our planet increasingly difficult, probably impossible in the end. This development is driven by still unchecked population growth and their constant quest to grow and generate profits by using up the last remaining resources. Donella and Dennis L. Meadows and Jørgen Randers 1972 prediction has proven to be true. The population has increased, resources have been depleted, and wastes have been released untreated into our environment. The atmosphere is being used as a great dumping ground onto which we throw the carbon dioxides from our greed for fossil energy. Man has only recently entered the planetary stage. He represents only a blink of an eye in the more than 4.6 billion years that our earth has existed. At the moment, he is about to destroy—or better, to burn down—this stage and the entire theater in which we play. It was against this sinister backdrop that our idea to map potentials for sustainability was born. We wanted to start where fossil energies are used for living, working, mobility. We wanted to prove that by replacing them with green energies, we can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions—and possibly even make them turn negative (as will be explained later). We wanted to show that sustainable development is possible with minor cost. We wanted to demonstrate this for a region that is neither rich nor a technological leader. We wanted to illustrate that renewable energy is economically feasible and even saves significant costs (e.g., for fossil fuels). We wanted to make it clear that the population can participate in and benefit from this transformation process. With this atlas, we aim at proving all this—because we know: there is no time left.

Chapter 2

City, Urbanization, and Energy

Humans nowadays live increasingly in an urbanized environment (see Fig. 2.1). According to the United Nations, since 2009, more people are living in cities than in rural areas.1 These agglomerations of settlements are energy-intensive because an active town has many different infrastructures to support the population. Due to the nature of urban life, transportation is inextricably linked to the urban environment, whether to move people from one place to another or to transport goods. In Spain, for instance, 40% of the total energy is consumed by the transportation sector (UIO 2019). As another example, from 2010, the Chinese urbanization effort will move about another 250 million Chinese people to live in cities by 2025 (Johnson 2013). This effort also drives the transportation sector and other infrastructure and the usage of more energy in the future. Including mobility, there are also other energy consumers like households, commerce, trade, service providers, industry. These energy users must share energy resources that are available to the area. Each of the energy protagonists also has its spatial resources. In urban areas, this space also comprises, for instance, the roof and façade of buildings that could be utilized to produce energy, in addition to the more traditional options (Genske et al. 2010a). Many cities expand and repeatedly contract over the years. These changes have left traces in the cities with each city’s unique urban and landscape types, which are influenced by the population, the city’s geography, pivotal events, and the government’s policies over the years. These differences affect the urban building and development pattern, land use, the density of the city, and other characteristics that in turn also affect energy consumption and production in the future (Genske et al. 2010a). With the help of mapping technologies, in-depth surveys, and good data, the urban environment could be mapped through different categories. With sufficient energy consumption data, the map could not only show how much is the energy expenditure of the city, but also where the energy is used. It could also show where the energy 1

This conclusion comes from the Wall Chart of Urban and Rural Areas 2009, which is a part of the report World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_2

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Fig. 2.1 A look from the Edifício Itália in São Paulo (Bresil) illustrates, how urbanization can change the landscape

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is produced now, future spatial resources, and other potentials that could be used to generate more energy—renewable energy. It could also show how the city could improve its energy consumption by indicating the locations inside the city where energy saving measures had been implemented. Moreover, urban emission related to energy usage also needs to be considered. Urban CO2 emissions from the use of energy resources are one of the main drivers of global climate change. As a figure, Indonesia emitted 36% of 484 Mt CO2 (i.e., 174 Mt) just from electricity, heat, and other energy production activities in 2017. This number has even risen to 182.7 Mt in 2018 (Climate Transparency 2019). With renewable energy and inventive ways to reduce emissions, which are mapped in this Atlas, the Atlas user could directly see the impact of measures to reduce said emissions.

Chapter 3

Energy by Source and Demand

The term energy has multiple meanings according to the usage. Energy is defined as the capacity of doing particular work. In this project, the energy forms utilized by the population (and, in extension, in urban and rural areas) are under consideration. Human energy demand can be grouped into electricity, fuel, and heat. The model for regional energy demand applied in this project allocates these energy forms to consumer groups. This division is based on the regional energy model developed by Everding et al. (2019c). It simplifies the analysis of energy pathways and distribution patterns in a regional setting. The three energy forms mentioned (electricity, fuel, heat) are demanded by three groups of consumers. These consumer groups are referred to as energy parties, namely the households (referred to as living), industry, business, trade and services (referred to as working) and the mobility sector that includes traffic on roads, rails, water, and air routes (see Fig. 3.1). This division will be used to accurately distribute the energy imported into the model region and the energy generated within the limits of the model region, i.e., intra muros (see below). In this framework, the usage pattern needs to be researched and mapped (Everding et al. 2019c). At this point, it should be mentioned that this energy distribution key has been applied in former spatial analyses with success since it allows to easily group and classify energy supply and demand patterns. It was introduced to map the site of the International Building Exhibition IBA Hamburg (Germany) and was subsequently applied to the City of Basel (Switzerland), the City of Villach (Austria), a business district in Boston (USA), the Bundesland Thuringia (Germany), the Lake Constance Energy Region BAER (European Alps), and other cities and regions (Droege et al. 2018; Everding et al. 2019a, b, c). The energy distribution key allows for easy comparison for different regions in different parts of the world having different settings and economies.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_3

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Fig. 3.1 Energy parties with sectors and consumers (adapted from Everding et al. 2019c)

When discussing energy consumption, the distinction between primary energy, secondary energy, and end energy is of ample importance. End energy (also referred to as site energy) is the amount of energy consumed and metered on site. Thus, the electricity meter in a household indicates the final energy consumption. Similarly, the fuel bill at a gas station indicates the end energy delivered to the vehicle. The gasoline itself would be called secondary energy because the gasoline was refined from crude oil, which in turn would be called primary energy (also referred to as source energy). In this sense, coal would be primary energy, while the electricity generated in a coalfired power plant and delivered to the consumer would be end energy (minus possible transmission losses). Energy generated by a wind turbine or photovoltaic panel would be end energy at the moment it is delivered to the consumer. However, if hydrogen is produced from green energy as an energy carrier, this hydrogen is called secondary energy, which may later be converted into electricity (and thus into end energy) or into fuel for vehicles (and thus also into end energy when refueling). Another example for secondary energy is biomass (primary energy) converted into biofuel

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Fig. 3.2 Primary energy (source energy) versus end energy (site energy) (after Ueno and Straube 2010)

(secondary energy) (Øvergaard 2008) (Fig. 3.2). For the purposes of this research, the term secondary energy and energy carriers will be used interchangeably. The factor that converts primary energy into end energy is called the primary energy factor (PEF). A PEF is defined as the amount of primary energy required to deliver a given amount of end energy to the consumer (e.g., a building) relative to that end energy amount. This factor thus accounts for the additional energy required to extract, convert, refine, transport, and distribute the energy. The primary energy factor is usually larger than 1.0 (Ueno and Straube 2010) but may, for certain renewable options, drop below 1.0. Table 3.1 indicates primary energy factors as used for the 2000-W Society Project for the City of Zurich and Basel. It should be noted that the PEF for nuclear energy is remarkably high (>4), indicating that although the CO2 emissions are considered low (which is not true when the whole life cycle is considered), the process for generating end energy seems to be (energetically) inefficient.

16 Table 3.1 Primary energy factors used for the 2000-W Society (Bébi´e et al. 2009; Berger et al. 2013, 2015)

3 Energy by Source and Demand Primary energy factor (–) Fossil energy Heating oil

1.24

Natural gas

1.15

Gasoline

1.29

Diesel

1.23

Kerosene (airplanes)

1.19

Liquified gas LPG

1.15

Biomass Lumpwood

1.06

Wood chips

1.14

Pellets

1.22

Biogas

0.48

Renewable (decentralized) Photovoltaics

1.46

Solar collectors

1.34

Ambient heat (air)

1.71

Ambient heat (water/brine)

1.52

Ambient heat (wastewater)

1.01

Distance heating Heating plant (oil)

1.69

Heating plant (gas)

1.56

Heating plant (wood)

1.66

Heating plant (geothermal)

1.52

Combined heat and power plant (gas)

0.65

Combined heat and power plant (geothermal)

0.59

Waste incineration plant

0.06

Electricity Power plant (coal)

3.92

Power plant (oil)

3.85

Power plant (wood)

1.41

Combined heat and power plant (gas and fossil)

2.34

Combined heat and power plant (biogas)

0.20

Combined heat and power plant (wood)

3.80

Combined heat and power plant (diesel)

3.36 (continued)

3 Energy by Source and Demand Table 3.1 (continued)

17 Primary energy factor (–)

Combined heat and power plant (geothermal)

3.36

Wind power

1.33

Hydropower

1.22

Waste incineration (power plant)

0.02

Photovoltaics (open space plant)

1.66

Nuclear power plant

4.08

2000-W Society (Berger et al. 2013, 2015) The 2000-W Society is an energy policy model that was developed as part of the Novatlantis program at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH). According to this model, the primary energy demand of each inhabitant of the earth should correspond to an average of no more than 2000 W. In Switzerland, this target means a reduction in energy consumption of just over two-thirds (2015). Reducing energy demand is one goal; the other is to reduce the share of fossil fuels to 500 W per person. Three-quarters of the energy demand is, therefore, to be covered by renewable energies. This approach should reduce CO2eq emissions to such an extent that the target of 1 t of CO2eq emissions per capita and year can be achieved. This per capita emission is considered the limit worldwide, and compliance with this limit seems to be the only way to keep climate change in check; i.e., average temperatures would not increase by more than 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. In a study for the Canton of Basel-Stadt, the current and future energy demand per inhabitant was determined with the aim of reducing it through suitable efficiency measures in order to eventually achieve the goals of the 2000-W Society. In doing so, non-renewable energies were to be replaced by renewable ones. Only renewable sources located within Basel-Stadt were considered. Two scenarios were defined: a reference scenario, in which the current trend is continued, and a 2000-W scenario, which assumes increased efforts in energy efficiency and the introduction of renewable energies. The study concludes that the 2000-W target can be achieved. Due to the favorable starting conditions in the canton, in particular the currently moderate end energy consumption (with some efficiency measures already in place) and the already high share of renewable energies, the target will be achieved by 2075 (Fig. 3.3). However, if no further efforts are made, and the current trend continues, the target cannot be achieved even in the long term.

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3 Energy by Source and Demand

Fig. 3.3 Decrease in primary energy demand for the energy parties living, working, and mobility in the 2000-W scenario

Energy Parties and Energy Demand in the Principality of Liechtenstein Droege et al. 2012 (Unpublished) The Principality of Liechtenstein is a microstate in the European Alps located between Switzerland and Austria. Because of its size (only 161 km2 ) and its population (only 39,000 inhabitants), the energy statistics is uncomplicated and well kept. In order to assess the energy demand, the statistics on the energy imported into the Principality and the production within the Principality were analyzed. According to these statistics, the total end energy purchased by consumers in 2010 amounted to 1543 GWh. Figure 3.4 shows the relative distribution of this end energy demand. This distribution makes clear that Liechtenstein is heavily dependent on fossil resources. The largest share, electricity, is mainly imported nuclear-fossil electricity. Only a small part is decentralized green electricity and biomass. Primary energy, on the other hand, totaled 2613 GWh in 2010. This underlines the fossil-nuclear dependence of the Principality. The relative shares are shown in Fig. 3.5.

3 Energy by Source and Demand

Fig. 3.4 Relative end energy demand in the Principality of Liechtenstein

Fig. 3.5 Relative primary energy demand in the Principality of Liechtenstein

In determining energy the demand of the Principality, a distinction was made between three energy sectors that are represented by energy parties. The energy party living is represented by households and the energy party working

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3 Energy by Source and Demand

by the groups trade, commerce, services, and industry. For the energy party mobility, the traffic volume of road and rail is recorded according to the territorial principle. There is neither an airport nor a railway station nor a harbor in Liechtenstein. Nevertheless, since the people of Liechtenstein consume goods that found their way into the country at least in part via ship and rail routes and because the citizen of Liechtenstein also enjoy traveling by airplane (e.g., by utilizing the International Airport of Zurich), the statistics were supplemented with typical Swiss per capita energy consumption figures for rail-bound transport as well as air freight and air travel. The three energy parties demand energy in different forms. A basic distinction is made between thermal demand, electrical demand, and fuels. The thermal demand is further differentiated into heating demand (which is substantial in this alpine region), hot water demand, and process heat demand. Fuels comprise diesel and gasoline used in the mobility sector but also fuels to run generators and engines in factories and production halls. Electricity is consumed by the energy parties living and working, but for mobility, the demand is currently limited to rail traffic. In the model calculations, it is assumed that the electrical demand will increase on the roads in the future since a program stimulating e-mobility has been introduced. In addition, the first e-buses shall be in service from 2022 onwards. The end energy demand is depicted in Fig. 3.6 for the three energy parties. According to this analysis, more than half of the end energy is consumed in the working sector, a little less than a quarter in the living sector, and a good quarter in the mobility sector. Figure 3.7 illustrates the end energy use, divided into heat, electricity, and fuels. According to these figures, a good half of energy is consumed as heat, one-fifth as electricity, and just under one-third for fuels. Only 13% of the energy used is renewable energy.

3 Energy by Source and Demand

Fig. 3.6 End energy demand for the three energy parties living, working, and mobility in the Principality of Liechtenstein

Fig. 3.7 End energy use in Liechtenstein, divided into heat, electricity, and fuels

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Chapter 4

Energy Footprints, the Intra-Muros Principle and Plus–Minus Regions

Energy deployment is tightly connected to human activities. As already discussed, energy demand is closely linked to urbanization and therefore cities. For a sustainable development of urban space, energy production and use must leave as little an ecological and energetical footprint as possible outside the area under consideration. The principle of having the energetical and ecological footprint as much as possible inside the observed space is called as the intra-muros principle (inside-thewall principle). This term is used to describe the space inside the walls of historic cities. For any given city or settlement, the intra-muros space can freely be defined according to sustainability principles and can be enlarged and reduced. Of course, as the observable range is reduced, so is the energy and ecological potential. Optimizing the use of existing resources and spaces intra muros helps the model area to be self-sustainable and to conserve and also protect external resources (Everding et al., 2019c). The energy used intra muros should be renewable energy. We will see in this Atlas project that the use of renewable resources leads not only to greater independence from conservative energy suppliers (such as oil and gas companies, coal suppliers, or nuclear energy suppliers) but also to economic benefits and—in addition—to an effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Apart from the fact that direct CO2 emissions are low and do not depend on finite resources, the use of renewable energy offers the possibility to shift part of the energy production to buildings and communities. Some renewable energy sources can be easily installed on buildings (e.g., rooftop photovoltaics) or shared between several houses (e.g., small generators based on biogas and hydrogen).

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_4

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4 Energy Footprints, the Intra-Muros Principle …

Table 4.1 Sink potentials of different ecosystems (Droege et al. 2012 (Unpublished); Schiermeier 2006; Schmidt 2010) Ecosystem (alpine)

CO2 sequestration Range t CO2 /ha

Foresta Soil

Chosen ab

0.6–1.8

Wetlands

Time periodc Years

1.2

>50

2.2–11.0

6.6

Unlimited

Renaturation

0.9–2.4

1.7

>200

Humus enrichment

6.5–8.5

7.5

40

Biochar enrichment

7.5–10.0

8.5

40

Humus and biochar enrichment

14.0–18.5

16.0

40

a Without

wood as renewable resource (CO2 -neutral) CO2 per hectare and year c The period during which the annual sink capacity can be maintained b Tons

The use of intra-muros renewable resources can indeed be seen as a revolution in the truest sense of the word: A dominant supply structure, controled by national and international companies that influence policy and bind consumers, is being dissolved by decentralized, local green energy providers that participate in and profit from the energy market. Globally, it is not a matter of opinion but a matter of fact that consumers ultimately become partners in energy supply structures, in this sense prosumers who cooperate with each other but also with local companies and businesses. The inside-the-wall principle requires cooperation among grid providers, distributors, prosumers, and experts, which could revitalize the local economy. The emphasis of having a local green energy market would also open up the chance for the region to run projects independently, create job and business opportunities for locals, and invite outside investments. Prosumers’ involvement will also perpetuate the education of green energy and sustainable living within the local populace. The utilization of renewable energy resources and their efficient use through the introduction of efficiency and sufficiency measures ultimately paves the way for so-called plus–minus regions. With the increase in the efficient use of renewable energy sources, carbon dioxide emissions will automatically decrease. Eventually, the region will be able to even export green energy (thus becoming a “plus”), and by the same process, it will become a carbon sink (thus a “minus”). Carbon sequestration can be supported by many measures such as reforestation of clear-cut areas, wetland restoration, humification of soils, or the application of terra preta techniques (biochar enrichment) that, in addition to carbon sequestration, make the soil even more resistant and fertile. Table 4.1 summarizes the sink performance for different ecosystems. The authors are keen to emphasize at this point that only by establishing plus– minus regions, the Paris climate targets of 2015 can be achieved.

4 Energy Footprints, the Intra-Muros Principle …

The Lake Constance-Alpine Rhine Region: First Plus–Minus Region in the World The Lake Constance-Alpine Rhine Energy Region (BAER) surrounds the Lake Constance and covers federal states and cantons of four countries: Germany, the Principality of Liechtenstein, Switzerland, and Austria. Figure 4.1 shows the overall area of the International Lake Constance Conference (IBK), known as the International Lake Constance Region. The IBK was founded in 1972 to save Lake Constance from ecological death due to sewage pollution and to undertake further water and environmental protection initiatives. With the exception of the Zurich-West metropolitan region, defined in this study as the cantons of Zurich (1729 km2 ) and Schaffhausen (298 km2 ), the BAER area is identical to the International Lake Constance Area and covers 14,797 km2 .

Fig. 4.1 Lake Constance-Alpine Rhine Energy Region (BAER)

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4 Energy Footprints, the Intra-Muros Principle …

Geomorphologically, the BAE-Region comprises Lake Constance and the surrounding Pre-Alps, the glacially formed valleys and floodplains, and the alpine mountain ranges. The hydrogeology of the region is characterized by its glacial formation during the last ice age and its present-day inflows and outflows. The total area is nearly 1.3 million ha (12,770 km2 ). In 2015, the BAERegion had a population of about 2.4 million. By the 2050 forecast horizon, the population will increase slightly. In Switzerland, Austria and Liechtenstein, the population is expected to increase; in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, on the other hand, a slight decrease is anticipated. In the course of global climate change, average temperatures will also rise in the BAER region. This will be accompanied by a decrease in the demand for heating and an increase in the demand for cooling and air conditioning. On the other hand, more extreme weather events such as today’s unusual dry periods, precipitation, temperature fluctuations, and storms are to be expected. Based on a multi-year study, a plus–minus scenario was developed for the BAE-Region for the first time (Droege et al. 2018). As explained above, in this target scenario, more energy is provided renewably than needed and more CO2 (in the form of carbon) is sequestered than emitted. Figure 4.2 shows how, in the plus–minus scenario, demand in all energy sectors can be met through efficiency and sufficiency measures and the production of green energy. At the same time, emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2 are also reduced (Fig. 4.3). Through reforestation, the renaturation of soils and their enrichment with hummus, and the use of terra preta techniques, the sink capacity of the model area can be further increased so that ultimately more carbon is sequestered than emitted.

4 Energy Footprints, the Intra-Muros Principle …

Fig. 4.2 In the plus–minus scenario, more energy could be provided by renewable sources than is needed. From about 2035, electricity generation (a) exceeds demand and heat demand (b) is covered until 2050. Fuel demand (c) can be significantly reduced by encouraging electromobility, promoting pedestrian and bicycle traffic, and stimulating local and longdistance public transport. The surplus electricity is used to electrify mobility and as synthetic methane to heat buildings (Droege et al., 2018)

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4 Energy Footprints, the Intra-Muros Principle …

Fig. 4.2 (continued)

4 Energy Footprints, the Intra-Muros Principle …

29

Fig. 4.3 In the plus–minus scenario, more carbon could be sequestered than emitted. This is achieved by reducing fossil energy demand and utilizing natural sinks (Droege et al. 2018)

In our Atlas Project, the largest “walled” area is the administrative area of the Province of Maluku. The city of Ambon, as the capital, and the Island of Ambon will be analysed in detail. The relationships between these visible spaces and their extramuros (outside wall) area are among the main points of the research. The analysis of footprints of energy production and consumption, mainly in the urban area of Ambon, will reveal the relationship between intra- and extra-muros spaces. To achieve energy production inside a region, it needs resources to come from the area itself. With fossil and nuclear-based energy production, this is often not the case. Indonesia has been importing oil since 2004 (after exiting OPEC) and exporting coal (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources & Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia 2019). Consequently, the electricity production of Indonesia

30

4 Energy Footprints, the Intra-Muros Principle …

and Maluku is dependent on fossil fuels (IRENA 2017). The energy resources are not entirely harvested from within Maluku’s or Indonesia’s borders and have to be obtained from national and international sources. These raw resources (the primary energy resources) need to be converted into energy carriers through centralized power station.

Chapter 5

The Space Resource Principle

The resource space is fundamental for all ecological transformation processes. It is also indispensable for the creation of wealth. As early as the eighteenth century, the Scottish moral philosopher and economist Adam Smith (1723–1790) postulated that in the classical production process, capital is generated from the resources labor and land (i.e., space). The application of this principle becomes clear at the moment when regenerative energy potentials are mapped. Labor is provided by the sun, wind, biomass, anthropogenic energy sources such as waste or wastewater. This labor is, in most cases, available free of charge. All that needs to be done is to invest in a “machine” that converts this work into a form of energy that we can use. Such a machine could be, for example, a photovoltaic installation that converts solar radiation into electricity or a series of solar panels that convert solar radiation into heat. As with conventional energy, the investment in the “conversion machine” eventually pays for itself and profits are made. Since no raw materials are required (except biowaste for bioenergy), Adam Smith’s basic economic law proves particularly interesting for urban transformation processes. Ultimately, the decisive factor is to find enough suitable space to generate energy and, thus, capital. One of the fundamental tasks of energetic urban transformation is to identify these areas, quantify them, and finally evaluate their economic benefit. The various options for regenerative energy generation differ in terms of their land requirements. The option is more efficient the less space it requires. A distinction must be made between direct and indirect land requirements. The direct land requirement corresponds to the use of land at the time of energy generation. Indirect land requirements, on the other hand, correspond to the land required for the manufacture of the energy generation plant, its installation, the dismantling, and the disposal of the plant. Furthermore, the waste generated during energy production occupies landfill space. In many cases, conventional power plants generate a whole range of wastes that are produced during the power generation process, such as ash from coal-fired incinerators or radioactive waste from nuclear power plants. This point is often forgotten when discussing energy production. It can involve significant © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_5

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5 The Space Resource Principle

land requirements and also significant costs. In addition, accidents that occur during energy production can also cause considerable land consumption in certain cases, as the nuclear reactor accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima clearly illustrate. Furthermore, a distinction must be made between exclusive and non-exclusive land requirements. A ground-covering PV system, for example, has an exclusive space requirement since the area is only used for energy generation and is no longer available for any other use. On the other hand, if the PV system is elevated, sheep could graze underneath it, and thus, the land requirement is not exclusive. Farming could be done between the elevated PV modules. A rooftop PV system and buildingintegrated photovoltaics (BIPV) also represent a non-exclusive use because it is both a roof (or skin) for protection from the elements and a system that generates electricity at the same time. A rooftop PV system can even be combined with a green roof, with positive effects for PV yield (cooling from below) and for biodiversity (light and shade areas). The multiple uses of a surface make its potential particularly efficient.

Chapter 6

The Spatial Prototype Principle

If we look at a city map, we can identify individual areas that are similar in structure. This applies, for example, to the style of the building, its age, its use, or its ecological quality. In this atlas, we refer to these different building and construction styles as spatial urban prototypes (SUPs). SUPs have developed as a result of historically evolved urban concepts and visions, as well as economic imperatives. A distinct spatial typology for SUPs can be developed for each model region. For example, the following prototypes have developed in Europe: • the densely built Gründerzeit blocks at the time of industrialization (nineteenth and early twentieth centuries) with their narrow backyards and low-quality outbuildings • the buildings of the urban expansion of the 1920s and 1930s according to the welfare principle with housing estates in rows and courtyards and tenant gardens • the multi-family blocks built from the 1950s onward according to the principles of the Charter of Athens (1933), spatially separating the urban functions of living, working, leisure, and mobility • the postwar reconstructions of the 1950s and 1960s built with low-quality materials as well as the rubble of destroyed buildings • towering, partly industrially prefabricated apartment blocks of the 1960s and 1970s, which follow the principle of urbanity through density • since the 1980s, the reconstruction and restoration of urban quality through careful and critical urban redevelopment

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_6

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6 The Spatial Prototype Principle

• urban neighborhoods following the principle of sustainability and green architecture of the 1990s, including the redevelopment of degraded urban areas and brownfield sites (as, e.g., for the International Building Exhibition IBA Emscher Park 1989–1999) • neighborhoods that extend the principle of sustainability through energy efficiency measures as well as renewable energy options from the year 2000 onward (such as the International Building Exhibition IBA Hamburg 2006–2013) • suburban single-family neighborhoods, such as those that emerged after World War I and especially after World War II, and which are usually being developed in an unsustainable manner on greenfield sites • functional, commercial, and industrial buildings. The spatial prototype methodology was originally developed to evaluate the suitability of different building types to provide solar energy (i.e., the suitability of buildings to generate solar energy with their building skin) (Everding et al. 2004). Like the energy distribution key mentioned above, the concept of spatial urban prototypes (SUPs) was applied to the mapping of cities and neighborhoods of Hamburg (Germany), Basel (Switzerland), Villach (Austria), Boston (US), the Bundesland Thuringia (Germany), the Lake Constance Energy Region BAER (European Alps), and other cities and regions (Droege et al. 2018; Everding et al. 2019a, b, c). It is interesting to note that most of the SUPs listed above can be found all over the world. Gründerzeit buildings, for instance, have been built in Asia as well as in South Africa, and monotonous apartment blocks without urban qualities in Russia as well as in China; suburban lavish single-family homes have unfortunately spread all over the world and sometimes even “upgraded” as gated communities. It is therefore not surprising that some of the SUPs listed can also be found in Indonesia. However, since these prototypes have evolved historically and depended heavily on the available building material, climate, budget, and other factors, there are always SUPs that are unique to certain nations and regions. Later, we will see that there are also SUPs typical for the Maluku Province. At this point, however, it is important to note that each prototype has a characteristic energy demand (electricity, heating or cooling, fuels) and that at the same time, each prototype has a characteristic ability to generate (renewable) energy. The structure, the building materials, the utilization, etc., define a specific energy demand, just as the shape of the building, its size, the shape of the roof, etc., provide spaces that can be used for energy production. It is precisely because of this dual importance of SUPs —their distinctive energy demand and their characteristic aptitude for green

6 The Spatial Prototype Principle

35

energy production—that it is so important to classify and map them. Based on a prototype map, it becomes easy to estimate regional energy demand while at the same time assessing the potential for renewable energy. Furthermore, a prototype map allows to extrapolate the demand–supply situation into the future and thus to aid in deciding which measures will prove most efficient to reduce energy demand and which options are available to realize renewable potentials. In addition to urban prototypes, there are also spatial rural prototypes (SRPs). These include green spaces such as meadows, parks and gardens, rural settlements, agricultural land (pasture and arable land), forests, wetlands, rivers and lakes, fallow land, and unproductive sites. The SRPs are also regionally typical and must therefore be redefined for each model region. They may also have a specific energy demand (e.g., the cultivation of arable land) and a specific capacity to provide renewable energy (e.g., the biomass from agricultural waste). The prototypes, urban and rural ones, are also called energetically homogenous zones (EHZs), as they are areas with similar energy characteristics (Droege et al., 2018). The International Building Exhibition IBA Hamburg (Everding et al. 2019a) A good example of spatial prototyping is the Wilhelmsburg Quarter in Hamburg (Germany). Here, the International Building Exhibition IBA Hamburg took place from 2006 to 2013. The prototype map (Fig. 6.1) illustrates the built and open space inventory of the quarter, represented as spatial urban prototypes (SUPs) and spatial rural prototypes (SRPs).

36

6 The Spatial Prototype Principle

Fig. 6.1 Classification of Hamburg Wilhelmsburg into prototypical urban and rural spaces (SUP/SRP) in 2007 (Genske et al. 2010a, b, courtesy of © IBA Hamburg GmbH, all rights reserved)

Wilhelmsburg was selected because it was a problem neighborhood with rising unemployment and crime rate at the time of mapping. Part of IBA

6 The Spatial Prototype Principle

Hamburg’s strategy was to halt this city quarter’s deterioration and initiate its sustainable transformation. Due to the destruction during the World War II and the dynamic postwar development of the city, only a few urban testimonies have been preserved in Wilhelmsburg. Still existing pre-industrial village cores can be found next to single-family residential areas and high-rise apartment buildings, which were built according to the guiding principle of “urbanity through density.” Mono-functional vertical residential blocks were used in an attempt to separate the functions of living, working, and leisure and to reconnect them in a car-friendly manner. Over the years, this has led to the development of social hotspots. Wilhelmsburg also contains remnants of the urban expansion phase based on the welfare principle of the 1920s and 1930s, which were shaped in Hamburg by the work of the Chief Building Director Fritz Schumacher. In addition, there are postwar reconstruction ensembles of the 1940s–1950s as well as examples of multi-story housing of the 1960s–1990s. There are even examples of reconstruction and restoration of urban quality through the “cautious and critical urban redevelopment” of the 1980s, as well as urban transformation attempts based on the principle of sustainability since the 1990s (all new construction projects of the IBA Hamburg fall into this category). In addition, there are functional, commercial, and industrial buildings. These urban spaces are complemented by spatial rural prototypes (SRPs) such as green spaces, agricultural and horticultural areas as well as water zones and traffic sectors. The prototypes (SUP/SRP) are used to spatially systematize and visualize the urban and rural structures. Specific indicators are assigned to each prototype. In the case of a renewable urban transformation, these are firstly the energy demand of the prototypes (electricity, heat, fuels) and secondly their suitability for the provision of green energy (with photovoltaics, solar panels, geothermal energy, biomass, etc.). On this basis, forecast maps can be created that show both the energy demand in the future and renewable energy potentials.

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Chapter 7

The Principle of Closing Loops

An essential part of sustainable urban development is closing material cycles. In historic cities, it was common to reuse things like cloth, tiles, pots, etc. Anything left over was simply put on the street (often just thrown out of the window). In larger cities like Paris or London, thousands of so-called night collectors gathered garbage, equipped with backpack baskets, lanterns and hooks to sift through worn clothes, old brushes, fish heads, and vegetable peelings. The collectors had their own patch and the right of the first pick. Items of some value such as buttons, lining, wool, or silk were sorted out and sold through a hierarchy of chiefs and subchiefs at rag-and-bone markets. In addition, “cleaner pigs” took care of the edible leftovers, closing the loop. Although all material cycles were more or less closed, this practice led to a general deterioration of public health and eventually to the outbreak of epidemics such as the Black Death. In spite of many attempts that were made to systematically collect and discharge wastes, for instance, by the French King Philippe II in the twelfth century, it was not until 1883 that the Prefect of Paris, Eugène Poubelle, ordered his citizens to dispose their wastes in trash cans. He also obliged them to sort their wastes in glass, paper, and compostable wastes. It was not until the 1940s that all citizens of Paris eventually accepted this system and recycling became common practice. Similar problems were encountered in other cities such as London, where in 1875 the Public Health Act required the communities to remove and dispose wastes with the aim to keep the streets and rivers clean and to recycle what can be reused. With industrialization, the population grew and so did the cities. Consumer goods such as household appliances, clothing, and vehicles were produced in large quantities. This mass production was initially accompanied by the generation of large quantities of household and industrial waste. To curb this avalanche of waste, legislators introduced measures to further promote the idea of recycling. The goal was to reuse any commodity or parts thereof. A distinction has been made between high-grade reuse (upcycling) and low-grade reuse (downcycling). In addition to everyday consumer goods, remnants of demolished buildings have always been reused. Today, concrete is crushed and reused as aggregate or employed © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_7

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as fill or dam construction material. Windows, their frames, the wood of the roof truss, rain pipes, conduits, etc., are also reused. In addition to material cycles, water cycles must also be closed in sustainable urban developments. In an ecological settlement, rainwater is collected, stored in cisterns, and reused as gray water (e.g., for watering plants or flushing toilets). Gray water can further be infiltrated into the ground to replenish groundwater resources. Black water (e.g., from toilets), on the other hand, must be treated before it is released back into the environment. Simple infiltration standards, plant-based processes as well as elaborate wastewater treatment plants are available for this purpose. As already indicated, the basic idea of closing loops is to conserve resources and avoid waste that pollutes our environment. In this sense, the recycling of land resources is also an important aspect of sustainable urban development. Today, brownfields (i.e., derelict spaces) are increasingly being reused. The redevelopment of brownfields was the focus of the International Building Exhibition IBA Emscher Park (Reicher and Million 2011), which took place in the German Ruhr region from 1989 to 1999. Since deep coal mining ceased due to cheap coal from open pit mines in Australia and South America, most mining and refining facilities went out of business and an entire infrastructure fell into disuse. With support from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), post-mining landscapes were transformed and put to new use. In the course of this transformation process, many sites were rehabilitated to establish new, innovative industries and services with high-quality jobs for former miners. Similar efforts have been made around the world, but stopped in regions where conventional coal mining is still encouraged by the government, even though the negative impact on our climate is now clear to everyone and sustainable options for energy production are available, as will be shown in this atlas project. Due to the good results, brownfield revitalization was included in the German National Sustainability Strategy of 2002. Based on this strategy, the consumption of green spaces is now to be reduced by more than two-thirds and eventually limited to only 30 ha per day. Based on the recommendations formulated in this strategy, brownfield revitalization has become a common practice in urban transformation processes in Germany, as well as in other European countries that have benefited from ERDF funds. Funding for brownfield redevelopment has also increasingly been made available outside Europe, such as the so-called Superfund in the US. The usual approach to brownfield remediation is to first investigate the previous use of the site (which may date back more than 100 years). Based on this, potential soil and groundwater contamination is assessed, and the remediation process begins. Eventually, the brownfield site is cleaned up, remediated, and made ready for reuse. There are several redevelopment options, such as creating new residential and commercial districts, turning the site into parkland, or returning it to nature where forest and wildlife can re-establish again. In any case, the cycle of the resource “land” is closed again with these measures. The final aspect addressed in this chapter is the redefinition of energy cycles and their transformation into sustainable cycles. Fossil energy cycles are not sustainable because they are neither closed nor environmentally sound. In the process of fossil energy production, the resource is mined (such as coal) or pumped out of the ground (such as oil or gas), a process that in itself causes significant resource consumption

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(machinery, transportation, refining facilities) as well as water and air pollution and the destruction of land resources (through mining and land subsidence). In order to convert primary fossil energy (coal, oil, gas) into end energy (electricity, heat, fuels), complex conversion processes must be carried out, which in turn cause the release of a variety of pollutants as well as the emission of carbon previously trapped in the fossil resource. Therefore, the energy loop is leaking, thus promoting climate change. When considering renewable energy, machines are also needed to convert resources and produce energy. But the energy is a natural one that does not deplete (like the sun or the wind) or that grows back (like biomass). When these renewable resources are used, no greenhouse gases are emitted or, as in the case of biomass, only the carbon that the plant (the biomass) has recently taken from the atmosphere is returned to the atmosphere. The cycle is therefore closed, and the process is therefore sustainable. Of course, it could be argued that the use of fossil resources corresponds to a closed cycle, since the carbon stored in them originally came from the atmosphere and the process of converting this fossil resource into energy only returns all the stored carbon back to the atmosphere. However, the accumulation of atmospheric carbon in plants and animals, which eventually turned into coal, oil, and gas after geological processes, took millions of years, and when we burn it today, we released it all at once (within just one century of industrialization—the fossil era). The comparatively sudden release overloads our current atmosphere. This is the main reason why fossil resources are considered unsustainable. Recycling of demolition material (after Weizäcker et al. 1997) In the 1990s, it was decided to demolish a prison building in Oakalla, Canada. It was a 24 × 46 m concrete building with an interior cladding of wood and chipboard and barred windows. The government contractor in charge of the demolition invited bids for an “environmentally sound” demolition: Vendors had to quote two prices, one for conventional demolition and one for demolition with maximum material reuse. A bidder who priced the demolition with material reuse 24% lower was awarded. During demolition, the debris was separated into concrete blocks, wood beams, particleboard, windows, metals, roofing gravel, and roofing felt. All of these materials could be reused. Of the total demolition material, just 5% ended up in the landfill. Although demolition was more labor intensive, the sale of the recycled materials offset the additional costs. In the meantime, the reuse of demolition material is generally accepted practice in many parts of the world.

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The district neighborhood Mont Cenis (Herne, Germany) In 1991, the International Building Exhibition IBA Emscher Park organized an international architectural competition. The task was to revitalize the Mont Cenis coal mine in Herne with a new, forward-looking utilization concept. The French architects Jourda and Perraudin won the competition with a surprisingly innovative draft based on the goals of Agenda 21: They envisaged the use of renewable energies while conserving material and land resources. Combined with the economic impetus provided by the new district center for the region, which is characterized by unemployment, the Mont Cenis project became one of the most prominent initiatives of the International Building Exhibition IBA Emscher Park. The academy building dominates the 26-ha site (Fig. 7.1). It is characterized by the following special features (Genske 2007):

7 The Principle of Closing Loops

Fig. 7.1 Site plan of Mont Cenis with the original colliery development, the mining shafts, and the new development (Genske 2007)

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• A “microclimatic” glass envelope encloses the 15 m high, 176 m long, and 72 m wide space, which houses a library, hotel, administrative buildings, recreational areas, and an academy for administration (Figs. 7.2 and 7.3). Based on the EU research program JOULE, the concept allows for a “climatic shift” that results in Mediterranean indoor temperatures, or in figures, a 23% reduction in heating costs, which corresponds to an 18% reduction in CO2 emissions.

Fig. 7.2 Glass hall of the academy building with the solar roof

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Fig. 7.3 Interior view of the Mont Cenis building

• A 1 MW peak solar power plant serves as the roof of the glasshouse. With 10,000 m2 of photovoltaic modules, it was the largest roof-mounted solar power plant in the world when the keys were handed over in 1999. The solar cells generate more energy than the academy building can use. The panels are arranged in a cloud shape to selectively shade certain areas within the structure. This creates a pleasant, balanced indoor climate. • The rainwater that falls on the glass shell is collected and used as gray water for cleaning purposes and for watering the plants. • In addition to concrete and glass, wood was also used in the construction of the hall. The wood used is native regional spruce. The choice of building materials underlines the ecologically balanced concept. Next to the academy building, an equally remarkable energy park was set up. Here, mine gas escaping from the neighboring abandoned shafts (Fig. 7.4) is converted into electricity and heat. In the Ruhr region, around 120 million m3 of mine gas escapes from old mines every year. This volume of gas is equivalent to about 100,000 tons of crude oil. In Mont Cenis, this energy source was used for the first time: According to the energy provider (Stadtwerke Herne), the mine gas-fired combined heat and power plant generates a combined 9000

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MWh of electricity and 120,000 MWh of heat per year. Around 60,000 t of the greenhouse gas CO2 is thus avoided each year. The original investment volume was 110 Mio. e, including the support the project received from ERDF funds.

Fig. 7.4 A sealed mining shaft with old mine gas outlets. Today, the mine gas is collected to produce electricity and heat

Chapter 8

The Social City

The opposite of a social city is a gated community. A gated community is characterized by people with a comparable, elevated income living in single houses in a monotonous settlement placed in an area that used to be natural space (like a forest). Each house has its own utility infrastructure, i.e., power supply, water supply, telecommunications, garbage and sewage disposal, and, of course, roads connecting the house with the neighborhood and with the city. There are no sidewalks, though. To reach their offices and workplaces, people from gated communities usually take their cars to the city, everybody at about the same time in the morning, work there from nine to five, and then return to their homes again. Their wives usually need a second car, which they use to drive the children to school and to buy groceries and necessities at shopping malls. On weekends, gated families drive to family restaurants. When the need for physical exercise arises, gated people drive to gyms and work out, usually indoors. There are no restaurants, pubs, theaters, or schools in a gated community. Gated communities can be found all over the world. In some countries, they are fenced in like South Africa; in other countries like Germany, there is not even a gate. Nevertheless, they are gated communities. The social structure that develops within such communities tends to be homogeneous and conservative. After all, gated people believe that they are better off and that they can afford their own house and a car, possibly two, and green space around the house, which they usually treat with pesticides to keep out all disturbing weeds (and biodiversity). People who live in gated communities usually resist neutral, balanced information. There is little exchange of ideas or visions with others. They prefer to stick to their own social networks (like Facebook), which are basically echo chambers of themselves, in most cases backward-looking, narrow-minded, sometimes even racist ideas and beliefs. In the United States, residents of gated communities have proven to be strong supporters of the “America First” ideology. Indeed, Donald Trump, who occasionally refers to his female supporters as “suburban housewives,” tweeted on July 23, 2020, “[Joe] Biden will destroy your neighborhood and your American Dream. I will preserve it, and make it even better!” (On that day, the US president tweeted 55 © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_8

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times, this one was sent at 6:46 p.m.). Donald Trump linked his tweet to a supposedly serious, well-informed newspaper article in the tabloid “New York Post” (backed by Rupert Murdoch). It is noteworthy that this article was written by Betsy McCaughey, one of Donald Trump’s senior advisors. The example of gated communities and single-family housing areas illustrates the effects of unambitious, misguided urban planning. This planning does not pursue the goal of the social city but rather bows to the individual interests of the upper-middle class. This kind of planning is both ecologically and socially unsustainable. Even the economic feasibility of this kind of communities comes at the expense of nature, the destruction of natural areas, and greenhouse gas emissions. With regard to the rapid expansion of gated communities, it is worth taking a look at the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), which was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly as Resolution 217 on December 10, 1948, at the Palais de Chaillot in Paris. Article 25 (1) states that: Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in the circumstances beyond his control.

Article 25 defines quite well the tasks to be accomplished in planning a social city: Everyone has the right to live in dignity and security. Everyone has the right to social participation, even if he or she is poor, old, sick, or disabled. It may seem difficult to implement these demands in urban planning. But there are good examples, for instance, the already mentioned International Building Exhibition IBA Hamburg. In this project, the realization of a social city is clearly defined: The goal of the IBA Hamburg is to create lively centres in the form of local squares with restaurants, retail, cultural and social uses. Encounters can also take place on an education campus, which makes provision for all neighbours, including after school. Through forwardlooking planning, public spaces should be created that are easy to reach and diverse in structure, thus promoting neighbourly exchange. (IBA 2021)

This statement makes it clear that sustainable transformation of a problem neighborhood into a social neighborhood (as in Hamburg) only works if the key factor of social exchange is taken into account. It is of vital importance that all social groups are represented, i.e., all income classes, all age groups, and all cultures. Social mixing in combination with spaces for recreation, education, and culture seems to be the most important ingredient to create a social city. Katja Niemeyer, a local resident of the IBA neighborhood, reports that “Living here means being very close. Thanks to the small squares and close neighborhoods, some friendships have already been forged. What pleases me particularly is that direct contact means you can borrow and share things—from garden machinery to cars” (IBA 2021). There have been many initiatives to create social cities, such as the Garden City Movement initiated by Ebenezer Howard as early as 1898. Perhaps, the first initiative to create a social city in an existing urban matrix goes back again to another International Building Exhibition, this time the IBA Berlin 1987, whose goal was to “critically reconstruct” existing neighborhoods. The misleading idea of separating

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the urban functions of living, working, leisure, and combining them with mobility (i.e., building the car-friendly city), as based on the Charter of Athens (1933) and as staged in the INTERBAU 1957 (also in Berlin), was to be revised and corrected. The basic idea of the “critical reconstruction” of 1987 was to reunite urban functions, reduce mobility to a minimum, and restore viable social structures. Old buildings were restored to save the “embodied energy” already invested in their construction, and new, environmentally friendly buildings were carefully added, while green spaces were restored and new green spaces were created, for example, on the roofs and facades. In this process, vibrant neighborhoods were able to emerge, bringing together all social classes, old and young, rich and poor, locals and non-locals—a true social city is thus emerging on the remains of the historic city. In this context, it is worth mentioning that the introduction of renewable energy production in urban space provides opportunities for neighborhood cooperation. For example, the energy generated by photovoltaic systems on roofs can be shared and the surplus can even be sold. The benefits accrue to the neighborhood. Another example would be a biomass combustion plant to generate electricity, where the investment is shared as well as the benefits. It is clear that such initiatives are generally not favored by the large energy companies, which naturally lose customers and profits. So the idea of the social city has remarkable effects and implications.

Part II

Wonders of Thousands of Islands

In Part II of this book, the country of Indonesia is introduced. After a short review of the country’s history, the energy status of the country is outlined. Then, the Province of Maluku, the model region for our atlas project, is presented. The energy status is also explained for the province, and spatial urban prototypes (SUPs) are presented. The city of Ambon, the capital of the province, is discussed in particular detail.

Chapter 9

Indonesia

Indonesia, officially the Republic of Indonesia, is the 4th most populous country in the world, directly one spot after the United States. The capital city of Indonesia is Jakarta, which metropolitan region is the 2nd largest in the world in terms of population. The country has 34 provinces over an area of 1,904,569 km2 . It is a member and founder member of multiple multilateral organizations and the largest economy power in Southeast Asia. This project will focus on Indonesia and the Maluku Region.

9.1 Overview of Indonesia The Republic of Indonesia is a country in transition with more than 270 million people (Statistics Indonesia 2021). Indonesian culture and multiethnic identity could be seen by more than 700 distinct languages spoken in the country and more than 1300 ethnic groups. As a G20 member, Indonesia is projected to be one of the future’s economic powerhouses. Indonesia is also one of the ASEAN founders. The republic spans three time zones, with most of the population living in the country’s western half. The country has abundant natural resources and agricultural products, which helps the republic to become one of the emerging economies in the region. Geographically, Indonesia is located between the Pacific and Indian Oceans (Fig. 9.1). It is one of the few countries in the world that consists entirely of islands, without landmass on a continent. It is located near the equator, one of the contributing factors to the nation’s tropical climate. Indonesia is well known for its volcanoes and bountiful, albeit dwindling, rainforests. Consequently, it also has a rich biodiversity. This country with more than 17,000 islands has unique challenges in developing its regions uniformly. From even before the nation’s establishment, the population, hence, the development progress, is focused mainly on Java Island. This development of Java has been recorded dating back to the story of Ramayana even before 500

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_9

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Fig. 9.1 Indonesia with Maluku archipelago highlighted (background: OpenStreetMap)

BC.1 The fertile island, supported by volcano activities and outstanding rainfall, drove the development of small kingdoms and communities (Ricklefs 1993). This self-development culminates with the exceptionally known empire of Majapahit. The empire is the first power to expand to most of Indonesia’s present-day territory (Fig. 9.2). With the spread of Islam, multiple Islamic states and sultanates appear along the archipelago from the spice trade after the time of Hindu and Buddhist kingdoms. The European powers that wanted to dominate the spice trade sought to control these spices’ sources. The European explorers, spearheaded by Portuguese expeditions, established trade posts in Southeast Asia around the sixteenth to seventeenth century. The Europeans only became the region’s established power from the eighteenth century because of Islamic powers’ dominance in the seventeenth century. The influence of the Islamic states waned later on with the fall of the Ottoman empires. The European colonies in the Southeast Asian region lasted until after the World War II (Ricklefs 1993). Netherland’s VOC (NL: Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie, i.e., United East India Company) established Batavia (now Jakarta) in 1619 by moving their original trading bases from the spice islands. Batavia and Java became the administrative center of the VOC and later Dutch Indies. Not just as a trading hub, Java became the island that supported the Dutch’s international trading activities with its fertile products (Carey 2011). The colonial activity of the Netherlands drove the population of Java from around 4.5 million to 28.5 from 1815 to 1900 (Peper 1970). This growth continues until recently; about 151.6 million people now call Java their home, becoming the most populated island in the world (Statistics Indonesia 2021). The hegemony of Java Island in the archipelago is still valid even after Indonesian’s independence in 1945. Indonesia tried to mitigate 1

Ramayana is one of the two epics of Ancient India, written in Sanskrit.

9.1 Overview of Indonesia

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Fig. 9.2 Capture of Prince Diponegoro, a painting depicting the capture of the prince of Yogyakarta Sultanate in Java by the Dutch (Painting by Raden Saleh 1857)

the problem of imbalanced development by continuing the transmigration program started by the Dutch. The program aims to move people from Java Island to other less populated and underdeveloped areas of Indonesia. Various sources still debate the program’s efficacy, yet the program does add to the population on islands outside Java. The transmigration program to Papua was stopped in 2015 by President Joko Widodo because of problems with the region’s social balance. The colonial activities also brought technology development and, with it, also the distribution of modern energy sources. The Dutch first introduced petroleum, gas, and electricity; even the National Electricity Company of Indonesia (PLN) traces its roots to Netherland (later Overseas) Indies Gas Company (NIGS/OIGS). The electricity production and distribution started with the factories that dotted Java Island. The first steam power plant was then built in Gambir, Batavia. The establishment of the power plant is the start of the distribution of electricity on Java Island. Indonesia’s electrification rate then rapidly increased but still leaves much region untouched until the 2010s, mainly in the east (MEMR 2015).

9.2 Energy Status Quo of Indonesia Indonesia grew to become an oil and gas exporter in the 1970s and became a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The country is also, as of 2020, the largest coal exporter globally (IEA 2020). The export products

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also influence the policy and energy infrastructure with solutions based on oil and coal. This influence is evidenced by the 66% share of fossil fuel in Indonesia’s primary energy mix. The share of coal has even risen because of the recent drive in increasing the national electrification rate to 99%. The central part of this strategy is constructing steam-based coal power plants. The dependency of coal as an energy source is also seen in future planning for its energy mix, in which the coal power plants are still intended to be built (Climate Transparency 2020). The drive of urbanization, push toward industry and services, and Indonesia’s economic growth also drove energy consumption. 56% of Indonesian live in urban areas in 2019, up from 49% in 2009. Simultaneously, Indonesia’s share of GDP indicates that services became the dominating sector, with 44% compared to 37% in 2009 (Statista 2020). Urban areas in developing countries have shown to use much more end energy per capita than rural areas, as urban dwellers’ income in these countries is also higher than their rural counterpart (Grubler et al. 2012). Until 2019, energy consumption in Indonesia is continuously rising. Indonesia used 1596 TWh of energy, from which about 250 TWh is electricity, as seen in IESR (2021a) and MEMR (2020). Only COVID-19 pandemic brought this trend to a short time stop. As already explained above, with the majority of the population and the development concentrated in the west of Indonesia, only about 10% of total energy demand is consumed in the eastern part, including the regions and islands of Sulawesi, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, and Papua (IRENA 2017). The most concerning fact about electricity generation in Indonesia is the reliance on fossil fuels. Approximately, 88% of all electricity generation is based on either coal, oil, or gas (Climate Transparency 2020). The lion share of electricity production is dominated by coal, and the government has planned to increase this share in 2020 to 35.2 GW of power plants. This addiction to coal could be clearly seen, as the PLN still plans about 22 GW worth of coal power plants until 2028 (IESR 2021a). The rise of coal is led by the drive to electrify 99% of Indonesia. The government program to push Indonesia’s electrification rate is evidently successful, with the electrification rate reaching 98.89% in 2020, but with more coal power plants built than ever (MEMR 2020). Electricity is mainly used by the living and the working sector, with households and industries consuming almost the same portion of energy, 39.7% and 36%, respectively. The energy forms, and as a consequence, the energy carrier that is needed by each sector, are unique. In an Indonesian household, the primary energy carrier is traditional bioenergy or biomass, which is generally used for cooking. That changed in recent years to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). In 2020, due to the inefficiency of the fuel types that are widely used, still more than 80% of the energy demand in residential houses in Indonesia is used for cooking. In turn, about half of the energy consumption in the working sector is caused by space cooling, with electricity as the leading energy carrier (IRENA 2017). In recent years, the use of electricity has been increasing steadily, not only in households but in all consumer groups, because electricity is more efficient, easy to obtain, and simple to use. Electricity is not the only form of energy carrier; oil as fuel is also used by the end consumers. Oil as fuel, in many various forms, is almost exclusively utilized

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Fig. 9.3 Energy diagram of Indonesia (adapted from IESR 2021a; MEMR 2020)

by the mobility sector. Oil is the second-largest primary energy carrier after coal in Indonesia. Gas is used in electricity generation and industry. Gas in liquefied form, as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), is mainly used by households for cooking and water heating. 66% of all the primary energy in Indonesia is based on fossil fuels. Indonesia has been already utilizing renewable energy forms that mainly contribute to the generation of electricity. As mentioned, biomass (in the form of fuel wood) is still used traditionally as cooking fuel in much underdeveloped parts of Indonesia, mainly where the program to push LPG as cooking fuel is not yet implemented (IRENA 2017). Biomass is also converted into biofuel and used in other sectors rather than converted into electricity. Hydropower stations are the main actor behind Indonesia’s renewable electricity source, with 66.84 TWh produced in 2019. Large hydropower stations, such as Jatiluhur Dam, with a production capacity of roughly 1 TWh a year, are the primary producer of hydrokinetic electricity (IESR 2021a; Prasetyo 2017). As a country located in the proximity of the Ring of Fire,

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Indonesia uses approximately 44.5 TWh geothermal energy as a source for electricity. Indonesia plans to add to these “old” renewable energy sources, but the processes are slowed down in 2020 because of the pandemic (IESR 2021a). Solar power is rising in Indonesia, but it is still not sufficient. Only 181 MW solar photovoltaics from all have been installed until 2020, which is still short of Indonesia’s target of 900 MW in the same year. Solar photovoltaics only produced 0.78 TWh of electricity in 2019 (IESR 2021a). The total solar potential for photovoltaics is calculated to be 7700 GWp2 which could produce about 10,500 TWh electricity in a year for the whole of Indonesia (IESR 2021b). Other forms of alternative energy production, such as wind turbine, biomass power plants, and waste burning power plants, are already implemented but still are not enough to cover Indonesia’s energy needs or replace the existing fossil fuel (Fig. 9.3).

Indonesia’s new Long-Term Strategy At the time of writing, Indonesia just recently published their new Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (LTS-LCC 2050). With this strategy, Indonesia plans to reach net-zero carbon emission by 2060 through different mitigation pathways. “Through low carbon scenario compatible with the Paris Agreement target (LCCP), Indonesia foresees to reach the peaking of national GHGs emissions in 2030 with net sink in forestry and land uses (FOLU), and with further exploring opportunity to rapidly progress towards net-zero emission in 2060 or sooner” (LTS-LCC 2050, submitted in 2021). According to this plan, the energy sector, especially power, will play one of the most important roles, and coal share will be pushed down to 38% of the total energy share, as the country will shift the coal for export use. Moreover, according to PLN, in their press conference in response to the publication of the LTS-LCC 2050, the last coal steam power plant will be retired around the second half of the 2050s, to further reduce the GHG emission. This strategy is followed by a plan to stop the building of new coal-based power plants (MEMR 2021). There are two main problems with the Indonesia and PLN planning. First, there are plans to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. The CCS technologies are aimed to reduce the direct emission created by the coal power plants. This idea is good in nature; yet, with limited funding, the investment into these technologies could hinder further development of renewables. Moreover, the CCS is, as of now, unproven to be effective and has a very high cost and also the reason why the authors did not consider CCS in Maluku (Butler 2020). Second, there are still plans from the country to depend on traditional sources of energy, such as nuclear and gas. In all PLN’s and MEMR’s scenarios, nuclear

2

This number is according to the second scenario in the IESR report. There are four scenarios, with second scenario deemed to be the most logical for Indonesia.

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is included from 2040, albeit in a small portion. Furthermore, in one of the scenarios, gas power plants are still included with CCS, especially for the integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), where the power plants basically use coal and other carbon-based fuel. The combination of IGCC + CCS and Gas + CCS in this scenario accounts to more than a third of the electrical generation capacity in 2060 (MEMR 2021). The country’s ongoing development is followed by emission growth, with a remarkable increase of 140% between 1990 and 2017 (Climate Transparency 2020). Indonesia already ratified the Paris Agreement, but the country is not yet on track for the 1.5 °C target. The country promised to reduce emission up to 41% below businessas-usual scenarios set during the agreement. Even the lower emission level during the COVID-19 pandemic does not help Indonesia reach emission targets (Climate Action Tracker 2020). The emission targets for Indonesia are set across all possible sectors, which comprises energy-related emission, land use, agriculture, and industrial processes. Emission from energy-related activities produces about 581 MtCO2 . This sector includes all energy activities, including power (emission from producing electricity and heat), mobility (emission from energy used in transport), industrial (energy used by the industries), plus buildings, households, and emission from extracting and processing fossil fuels (Climate Transparency 2020). One of Indonesia’s most challenging problems is the emission from land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Data from LULUCF emission are difficult to look at because of multiple factors. However, it could be seen that Indonesia emitted more emissions from this sector than the energy-related sector, which is mentioned in Indonesia’s report on LULUCF emission in 2012 with approximately 650 MtCO2 (MEF 2015).3 With the rapid urbanization and forest and peat fires making headlines almost every year in Indonesia, land use also becomes the main focus of Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to mitigate greenhouse gas emission. The effects of climate change are already observed in parts of Indonesia. As country of islands, sea-level change is felt in many parts of the archipelago. Extreme weather events have been occurring in many spots along the country and with higher frequency. Examples of disasters connected to climate change consist of severe flooding, heat waves, forest fires (which is also because of human activities), and crops that reaches maturity on different times. Moreover, the CO2 emission also made the seas more acidic, leading to the decline of marine species. 3

LULUCF emission here is self-reported, and other sources, like reported by Dunne in the Carbon Brief Profile, show Indonesian’s LULUCF emission of 1430 MtCO2 in 2012. Because of problems in transparency of data and difficulty of surveying LULUCF emission, this sector is excluded from reports and emission ratings, such as from Climate Action Tracker or Climate Transparency report and consequently, our own calculations.

Chapter 10

The Province of Maluku

Maluku Archipelago, or also known as “The Spice Islands,” is part of the larger Indonesian Archipelago. This group of about 1000 islands is located east of Sulawesi, west of New Guinea (Papua in Indonesian), and north and east of the Lesser Sunda Islands. The most important islands of the archipelago are Halmahera and Seram because of their size, and Ternate and Ambon as population centers. The archipelago is now divided into two administrative regions. One of them is North Maluku, with the city of Sofifi, on the island of Halmahera, as the province’s capital. Most of the province’s population lives in the island-city of Ternate. Important for this research is the larger Maluku Province, with the capital city Ambon on Ambon Island, which is the most populous settlement in the archipelago. These two administrative regions were created after lengthy consideration by the Indonesian government to speed up the two provinces’ development since 1999, together with the creation of other provinces with the same goal in mind.1 The province of Maluku (Fig. 10.1) is further divided into nine regencies (ID: Kabupaten) and two cities (ID: Kota). Maluku Tengah Regency has the largest area, and Ambon has the largest population. The regencies and the cities are: • • • • • • • • • • •

Buru Buru Selatan Seram Bagian Barat Maluku Tengah Seram Bagian Timur Maluku Tenggara Kepulauan Aru Kepulauan Tanimbar Maluku Barat Daya Kota Ambon Kota Tual.

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According to “Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia No. 46 Tahun 1999” (Indonesian Constitution No. 46 on year 1999). © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_10

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Fig. 10.1 Province of Maluku

The province has a population of approximately 1.7 million people, with a 1.6% growth between 2010 and 2018. The approximate density of the province is about one person for 32 km2 . This sparse density is caused by the numerous inhabited or sparsely habited islands in this region with a total land space of 54,185 km2 .2 These landmasses spread across the Banda Sea, south of the Banda Arc, and some, like the Wetar Island, borders the country of Timor-Leste in the south.

10.1 Energy History Maluku has been known to the world since spice trading began. One of their most famous native products, clove, have been found as far as Syria, dating back before 3600 BC. Nutmeg and mace (one of spices from byproducts of nutmeg cultivation) is also native to these islands. The archipelago became famous and became the center of the spice-driven European colonization efforts starting from around the sixteenth century (Andaya 1993). The trade also invited foreign influence to the islands, as could be seen through the entry of Hinduism, Islam, and later, European explorers with Christianity. In fact, the oldest Mosque in Indonesia could be found in Ambon. 2

Adapted from Statistics Indonesia for Maluku Province report titled “Proyeksi Penduduk Kabupaten/Kota” and- Hutauruk (2019).

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After The Netherlands moved the center of trading operations from Ambon and Ternate to Batavia, the Islands didn’t develop as much as the western regions of Indonesia anymore. The development of the regions was also left behind by the rest of Indonesia in Energy. Energy in the region always has to be delivered from other regions of Indonesia, as the region doesn’t have any fossil energy sources, such as coal or oil. As there are also no large industries running in the province, there are also only small incentive for the country to push the energy infrastructure. The electricity in the region was generated solely before with oil/diesel-based generators. Only after the 2010s, there are new projects to use coal to produce electricity. As the region lays under the development standard of Indonesia, the usage of firewood is still a common sight for rural households in the province.

10.2 Energy Sectors and Energy Consumption in the Province of Maluku Like most of Indonesia, Maluku, and the capital city’s energy comes mainly from fossil energy and traditional biomass sources (IRENA 2017). The province’s energy source is mainly based on oil and coal distributed from outside the province (extramuros) (Climate Analytics 2019). PLN Ambon mentioned that 99.9% of Maluku’s electricity source comes from fossil-based fuel (diesel, coal, and soon natural gas). The electricity generation itself is done within the province’s border but still does not fulfil the intra muros principle since the fuel comes from outside. Pilot and research projects are implementing solar and other kinds of renewable energies (as stated by both the Province’s Department of Energy and Mineral Resources and PLN Maluku). Still, as of the time of the research, it does not have any vital contribution to the total energy mix. Some statistics did show solar power plants’ installation (e.g., in Statistik PLN 2019 by PT PLN Persero), but it is not yet generating any power for the province. Domestic energy consumption is mainly based on electricity and fuels for cooking, with space heating not playing a role due to climatic conditions, in contrast to air conditioning of buildings (which will be discussed later). In addition to industry and electricity generation by the state-owned enterprise, transport is the main consumer of gas. The province has also not yet been reached by the 2007 national LPG conversion program, which means cooking fuel is still dominated by kerosene and traditional biomass.3 At the time of writing, multiple data show that cooking gas (LPG) is already used and sold in the province, yet it is still unpopular. Data from Maluku Statistic Agency shows that the usage of LPG has not reached 1% of the total energy used in cooking.

3

Traditional biomass are wood and other biomass that is used only by burning, without any additional processing.

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The modern energy use (excluding the use of traditional biomass sources) in the province accounts for less than 1% of the total final energy use in Indonesia (IRENA 2017). In 2019, the total energy sold by PLN in the province was 663.7 GWh (see Fig. 10.2), with about 430 GWh sold for household use. Apart from the population size and the lack of large industries in the province, the lack of modern energy use is also due to the difficult geographical location. The disparity of modern energy consumption is noticeably clear to see in Fig. 10.3. Although only about 25% of the province’s population lives in Ambon, the city’s electricity consumption is more than half.

Fig. 10.2 Growth of Maluku’s Electricity from 2015 to 2020 (PT PLN Provinsi Maluku, personal communication, March 11, 2020)

Fig. 10.3 Electricity distribution ratio in Maluku according to PT PLN working districts (PT PLN Provinsi Maluku, personal communication, March 11, 2020)

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The working districts of PLN, or distribution area, are not necessarily the same as the administration area detailed beforehand. For example, the Ambon distribution area compromises Ambon Island with neighboring Buru, Haruku, Saparua Island, and other small islands. The state electricity company defines the working area. With approximately 1440 islands, only areas with a concentrated population have round the hour electricity, with electricity in remote regions provided from smallscale often portable diesel generators. The electricity is distributed to all customers by the state electricity company (PLN) (IRENA 2017). The electricity is distributed to the living and working sectors. Although the Province of Maluku is about 90% electrified by 2019, electricity is not yet the main energy carrier for the living sector. The electricity in Maluku Province is generated by 335 fossil-fuel based generator owned fully or contracted by PLN, in which 604.9 GWh of electricity are produced from 2018 through 2019. The rest of the primary energy sources of 346 GWh of energy comes from purchased energy.4 Some of the largest power generators are based in the capital, Ambon. For example, both the largest diesel power plants in the region (Poka and Hative Kecil Diesel Power Plants)5 have a combined installed capacity of 80 to 100 MW. (PT PLN Persero 2020; PT PLN Provinsi Maluku, personal communication, March 11, 2020). Diesel fuel, sold as Solar in Indonesia, also plays an important role. It is often used in boats and ferries, used in and around the province, and by road-based transport. According to official data, the transportation sector is the only sector using fuel partly created from a renewable source, namely Biosolar.6 Biosolar is a mix of pure Solar and 20% fatty acid methyl ester (FAME)-based biodiesel. According to Pertamina, the total Biosolar sold in Maluku Province in 2019 is 39100 kl, mixed with 7820 kl FAME. This blend of Biosolar is targeted to be 30% FAME by 2025 (PT Pertamina Maluku, personal communication, March 15, 2020).

10.3 Status Quo of Emissions in the Province Maluku doesn’t have as much as population as the rest of Indonesia, and as already mentioned, only consumes about 1% of Indonesia’s modern energy supply. This is also shown in the emission rate of the province.

4

Electricity is purchased from private companies with exclusive contracts with PT PLN to produce electricity. 5 Locally known as PLTD Poka and PLTD Hative Kecil, both have about 15–20 generators of different capacities. 6 Solar and Biosolar are trademarked brands of fuel for diesel engines from the company Pertamina. These are not to be confused with the term solar energy that refers to energy that comes from the sun.

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In this research, we will calculate direct CO2 emission from the energy activity, yet as a baseline comparison, there are already some observations done for the pollution in Maluku, albeit for the CO2 equivalent emission. Calculation of the CO2 emission is done by calculating transportation data, emission from household use, and emission from producing electricity from power stations of PLN. The numbers are derived from statistics and own calculation of energy and spatial data. Using the latest data on power production and mobility data in Ambon, direct CO2 emission could be estimated. The emission data are calculated from different methods of emissions factors on power stations detailed by Drosihn et al. (2017), Juhrich (2016), also Budi and Suparman (2013). In addition, household fuel use is estimated for Ambon with the help of spatial data calculation detailed by Ammar (2021). As for Maluku, there is already a calculation for CO2 equivalent emission, which amounts to 1.5 million tons (Murningtyas 2014). This number is small, compared to the total 520 Mt of Indonesian CO2 emission from the power sector. Still, the amount could grow uncontrollably following the prosperity and population growth if supported only by the usage of fossil fuels (Climate Transparency 2019).

Chapter 11

Ambon Island and Ambon City

Ambon is the capital of the Maluku Province, even before the split of the provinces. The city is one of the largest in the eastern part of Indonesia, known locally as Ambon Manise (Beautiful Ambon). Ambon has a long history, and was already a home to the Sultanate of Tanah Hitu, before the Portuguese Explorer, Francisco Serrão, landed on the island in 1513. It was settled by Portuguese in the sixteenth century and changed hands over the years. The city grows with the settlement of people in villages that grow together as large families. These communities grew as close, tight-knit communities, which can be seen in Ambon to this day from family names, religion division, and area names (Ricklefs 1993). These unique communities shape the socio-demographic makeup of today’s Ambon. This uniqueness can be seen with the most recent sectarian conflict in Maluku between 1999 and 2002. The conflicted history of Maluku and Ambon, mainly the sectarian conflicts, shapes the character and the social situation of the island. The conflict also devastated Ambon’s once-thriving harbor-based economy, which then also dampens the growth of the city in the early part of the 2000s as almost all economic based activity stopped (van Klinken 2001). In turn, it also shapes urban development and segregation in the years to come (Imawan 2019). The conflicted history of Maluku and Ambon, mainly the sectarian conflicts, shapes the character and the social situation of the island.

11.1 Ambon City and Energy The City of Ambon is the home to 347,288 people in 2016, which is the most populous settlement of the Province of Maluku, with approximately 25% of the province’s population (Fig. 11.1) (Hutauruk 2019; Pemerintah Kota Ambon 2019a). The city is located on the southern part of the 803.9 km2 Ambon Island, occupying about 2/5 of the whole island. The island itself is divided into two halves, with

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_11

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Fig. 11.1 Map of Ambon, showing the populated area of the island

the smaller Leitimur peninsula on the south side and the larger northern Leihitu. Ambon has a growing population with a growth average of 2.4% yearly and steady economic growth. 43% of all the population lives in the Sirimau regency (Riyadi 2021). Consequently, Ambon is the province’s economic center and consumes about a third of its modern energy production. Therefore, the project focuses on mapping the city and uses Ambon as a model. The prototyping of the city and other observation results is then transferred to other regions of Maluku. Geographically, the City of Ambon is located between 3°34 8,40"–3°47 42,00" South and 128°1 33,60"–128°18 3,60" East. The city has a total area of 377 km2 , wholly occupying Ambon Island’s southern peninsula, and is divided into five smaller districts. The City of Ambon completely borders the Maluku Tengah Regency (Pemerintah Kota Ambon 2019b). The mobility sector in Ambon involves road, water, and air. This sector relies on fuel distributed from Pertamina. The primary fuel used by the mobility sector is gasoline, with gasoline-driven motorcycles as the leading consumer of the fuel. It is estimated that there are more than 103,000 motorbikes in Ambon alone (Pemerintah Kota Ambon 2019b). The living sector consumes both fuel and electricity. This sector has the highest electricity demand than other sectors in the city and the province. For cooking,

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however, mainly fuelwood and kerosene are used. Even though Ambon is a larger city with access to LPG, it is still not the main fuel for cooking due to the high prices and scarcity of this form of liquid gas. Ambon has some of the only large electricity consumers in the province that could be categorized as industrial. In total, the working sector consumes approximately 34% of all electricity in Ambon. One of the highest individual consumers is the shopping mall in the middle of Ambon, which consists of multiple shops, restaurants, and has full-on air conditioning.

11.2 Prototyping Ambon City and Ambon Island The process to categorize the urban spaces into SUP and SRP or EHZ in Ambon Island involves analyzing satellite pictures, on-site survey, map data from various sources, and analysis of both survey data from the government of Ambon and Maluku. The EHZs in Ambon are divided into the strongly urbanized environment near and around Ambon and more rural areas around the island. The classification of the EHZ will follow the surveyed data from the Indonesian government and the surveys done by the research group. Every urban area has its own unique properties, yet urban areas in the same region, similar culture, and similar history will also have similar growth attributes (Everding et al. 2019a). By mapping and analyzing the urban spaces of Ambon and the rural spaces in and around the city, other regions of the province could also be mapped in a similar manner. In this research, the residential areas will be the primary focus; the details of other areas will be derived from the residential EHZs. The residential EHZs are then divided into categories according to the type of the space (urban or rural) and further divided into the type of area by predicting the area’s income level, the construction method of the buildings, and also historical development. All this considers that all the EHZs are also homogeneous in their energy use. To set the prototypes in Ambon, first surveys must be done to the area, the buildings, and the surrounding situation; the observation is done through an on-site visit, evaluation of own photos, and photos from multiple sources of the area. The EHZs are then set based on the criteria and their relative location. Ambon Island is divided administratively into the City of Ambon and the Maluku Tengah Regency. The City of Ambon has mainly urbanized spaces with a lot of developed area, whereas the part of the island under the regency’s administration is mainly rural, with forests and other types of green areas dominating the space. The campus of the University of Pattimura serves as a possible model for developed urban areas of Ambon. The detailed data of the campus’ population, the buildings, and the energy usage enable an analysis into other regions in Ambon. The campus itself has various types of facilities and building types. The polygon data, containing rough residential area in Maluku province, are provided by Pattimura University, the Development Bureau of the Maluku Province,

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and the Indonesian Geospatial Portal (located at https://tanahair.indonesia.go.id/ at the time of writing). These data are then first processed so that the streets, roads, and rivers are not included in the calculation. The rivers (see Fig. 11.2, upper picture as blue lines) and roads (same image, represented as red lines) are cut away from the polygon referring to residential areas, using functions to cut the polygons (roads and river datasets). The width of the roads and rivers is a rough estimate, with the width of the roads being about 7–10 m and the width of the rivers being 7–8 m. The result can be seen in Fig. 11.2 as the orange-colored polygon, crisscrossed with empty space.

Fig. 11.2 Extraction of roads and river out of the polygon data

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Fig. 11.3 Example of the quadrat survey method

The scale of the surveyed area of the province and the island of Ambon is large and diverse. Thus, the prototyping process does not involve the analysis of each building; rather, in each available surveyed polygon, the quadrat sampling method will be used. The quadrat is 2500 m2 large and randomly placed over each surveyed polygon. The polygons are not uniform, neither in size nor in shape, so the placement of the polygon is semi-random, placing the quadrat on seemingly populated areas of the polygon. For the urban area of Ambon, the number of sampling quadrats is calculated so that the size of the surveyed area is at least 2% of the whole urban area. The categorization (EHZs) is then applied to the respective polygons, or, in the case of the Ambon Urban Area, to the polygons that have surveyed quadrats, and the surrounding polygons with an extra survey to correctly categorize each area. The energy-consuming space is estimated by determining the gross floor area (Droege et al. 2018). As shown in Fig. 11.3, the light brown area is the survey polygon, the blue square is the quadrat, and the light green area is the digitized area depicting the gross floor area of residential space. From here, the area under it will be categorized according to data from various sources (e.g., Google Maps, satellite photos, own observation, OpenStreetMap). It will then be divided into its respective prototypes. The amount of space will be calculated and extracted with functions from the GIS software. As Table 11.1 shows, Prototype 1–5 are prototypes based on households, which in this project becomes the main prototypes. This assumption is based on the amount of the surveyed area used for housing beforehand. Based on the statistics, the main user of electrical energy are the residential areas. Households buy more than 50% of electricity sold consistently from the year 2000.1 Shanties are represented in

1

The statistics are given by the PT PLN Provinsi Maluku (personal communication).

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Table 11.1 Energetically homogeneous zones (EHZ) in Ambon and Maluku Province [with contribution from Patil (2021) and Ammar (2021)] Category

Prototype Type

Prototype description Definition

Type of building

Low to middle households (rural outside city/ disconnected rural areas)

Residential + commercial houses, simple construction, located in mostly remote areas, or near urban spaces, but with a clearly rural structure

Prototype Residential 1a (shanty)

Lower households + slums especially in the urban areas

Residential, simple construction in tighter spaces

Prototype Residential 2

Middle to affluent households (rural connected to cities)

Residential, houses in suburban–rural spaces with better and more complex structure

Prototype Residential 3

Urban affluent households (real estate)

Residential; usually in gated communities with, normally, private developers. Characterized with highly uniformed houses

Prototype Residential 4

Urban middle households; real estate, almost pure residential

Residential in Old houses areas that New/renovated usually Houses developed with the help of government

Prototype Residential 5

Urban middle households; mixed-use; almost no separation in space between other functions

Residential, placed within urban spaces with other functions; offices that have residential-like building are also placed here

(B) Residential Prototype Residential + working mix 5a + prototype commercial

Urban households + Offices; RUKO (housing and store building; city center areas)

Combined residential + office

(C) Working Prototype Public + (Public + 6 commercial Commercial + Industrial) Prototypes

Institutions

(A) Residential Prototype Residential prototypes 1

(i) Old houses (ii) New/renovated houses

Residential (38%) Office (62%)

Nursery/school College/university Small healthcare centers/clinics Hospitals House of worship (continued)

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Table 11.1 (continued) Category

Prototype Type

Prototype description Definition

Type of building Commercial offices

Prototype Commercial Formal cuisine + shops 7 + businesses (cafes, Warungs, i.e., small informal shop, markets, restaurants, dispersed)

Small hotels in rural area Restaurants in urban areas

Small Medium/large

Cafés in urban areas Hotels in urban areas Retails/grocery Medium/large shops

(D) Other Prototypes

Prototype Commercial Shopping malls 8

Shopping Medium/large malls with multiple shops for grocery and clothes shopping

Prototype Industrial 9

Industrial area

Small-/medium-scale industry

Prototype Public 10

Airport

Single runway airports, eg., Pattimura International Airport

Prototype NA 11

Lakes/bay

Ambon Bay; used as prototype for the possible potential in floating photovoltaics

Prototype NA 12

Non-agricultural green area

Forests; unused green spaces

Prototype NA 13

Agricultural green area

Agricultural and grazing spaces

Prototype NA 14

Rest of the area

Unidentified, unused spaces

(E) Prototype Residential Ideal residential Environmentally ideal Futuristic-ideal 15 + apartments/multi-family residential buildings, possibly residential Commercial residence mixed with working spaces prototype

Prototype 1a and are not counted as separate energetic zones on their own, but rather as a part of other prototypes, mainly in urban areas. The analysis of each EHZ is done by modelling the usage of each unit. Households are modelled using common appliances for Indonesians and Maluku and predicting the active hours of the appliances. The energy usage is then connected with the space that the buildings occupy. The area which is used in energy calculation is the gross area of the buildings. The gross area refers to space roughly occupied by the building and the space that could still use energy around the building (parking lot, gardens, etc.).

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The working energy sectors are represented in prototypes 6–9, where the distinction lies in the type of their businesses and services. Prototype 6 is a type of urban space where the service sector and government buildings are represented; prototype 7 is a representation of the trade sector and other businesses like restaurants. Prototype 8 is reserved for shopping malls that are also popular in other parts of Indonesia, and prototype 9 is the industrial sector. Each polygon will then be also used in the visualization on a map as part of the atlas. The visualization of the prototypes would use the same polygons used in the survey. The polygons will be categorized into specific prototypes according to the household prototypes with the absolute majority rule. The residential prototype that occupies the absolute majority of (> 50%) the space in the polygon will be represented in the visualization. Other prototypes (e.g., Prototypes 6–10) are only considered to be visualized if the area under the polygon is filled mainly through these prototypes. In Fig. 11.4, the non-residential prototype, it can be seen that most of this space is used for the Maluku Governor’s office (see figure at right).

Fig. 11.4 Snippet of the Ambon Urban Area, showing non-residential Prototype 6 (Pink), in between other residential prototypes

Chapter 12

Methodology for the Atlas

Determination of energy demand is one of the most difficult aspects of spatial energy planning. The estimation of the current energy demand encounters problems in the collection of the energy demand data, the comparability of the measurement and its aggregation. Moreover, the two energy sectors, electricity and fuels, have to be distinguished and put into a format that makes them comparable. The qualitative approach of the research mainly involves interviews with experts in the field, scholars of renewable energy and geology, professionals in the field, and members of the public (e.g., from local organisations and other experts) and an on-site visit of Ambon. This qualitative research is essential because it will also be connected to people’s behavior on energy usage; moreover, local experts would have better on-field knowledge that could support in interpreting the quantitative side of the research. The on-site visit is crucial in understanding the real-life situation of the city and the province. The Atlas is completed using the data taken from literature research, statistical analysis, interviews, surveys, and usage of mapping technology, both to analyze and complete the energy atlas. The focus of the research will be the Moluccan Province and the city of Ambon. The geography limitation of the research is also coupled with the idea of the region to become self-sustainable and the intra muros principle. The city of Ambon will be the centerpiece of the research, as it is the largest urban room in the province by space and population. The literature research in this project will investigate research results in the mapping of energy sources and renewable energy production from other regions in the world, in Indonesia, and the Moluccan region to build a solid base of theory for the atlas. This research, combined with statistical analysis of data such as energy usage survey, demography, energy consumption, and energy distribution from global and local data sources, will be the quantitative approach of the research. In addition, the analysis in different areas that were done by the whole team (e.g., solar energy research, biomass research) will complete the atlas.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_12

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Fig. 12.1 General method of developing the Atlas (Droege et al. 2018)

Unlike other urban or regional model areas, the Province of Maluku has well-kept statistics on the import of energy, and linked to this, also territorial energy statistics. The initial conditions for recording energy consumption are therefore favorable. Thus, it was possible to build a closed system in which the energy flows flowing into the system and generated within the system are recorded and distributed in high resolution to the spatial urban and rural prototypes (SUP/SRP). Finally, the total energy demand could be summed up to match the input values. The algorithm to produce the atlas is based on the STAR method developed together by Peter Droege, Dieter D. Genske and Ariane Ruff (Droege et al. 2018). For this atlas project, the method was adapted to the region of Maluku. Quantitative and qualitative research is carried out to determine the energy balance and to map energetically homogeneous zones (EHZ). This is also the basis for setting the parameters for the future projections for energy demand and renewable energy generation as shown in Fig. 12.1. The comparison of demand and potential would show if the Moluccan Archipelago will be able to be sustainable and self-sufficient in their energy needs. Not separated from the process is a calculation of the possible

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Fig. 12.2 Quadrat survey method over areas in Ambon

reduction of greenhouse gas emission by comparing it from the data of quantitative research. To apply the STAR method into the Maluku Province, some modifications are needed. With the difficulty presented by Covid-19 pandemic, time, and pure geographical distance, it is impossible to do full bottom-up approach by surveying the buildings directly for their energy consumption. The energy consumption is therefore modeled through EHZ and controlled by statistic and projections from utility companies and available open data. All the quantifiable data are then processed by our team according to their expertise and fields. Consequently, one of our modifications of the STAR method is to use the quadrat method usually used in geological surveys. Rather than looking into each building in an area, digital squares with an area of 2500 m2 were put on top of the surveyed area (seen in Fig. 12.2) using GIS software. The squares are put randomly and were calculated, so that the quadrats cover at least 2% of all urban surveyed area in the city of Ambon. The result taken from Ambon Island is separated into the urban area of Ambon and Rural Ambon Island Area. This division is not directly representing SUP and SRP. In other words, the Rural Ambon Island Area will also have areas categorized as SUP, only in much lower percentages. These areas are also not directly connected to administrative division of Ambon Island. Some areas within the borders of Ambon City are also regarded as rural, according to their location and density.

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The prototyping of the rest of Maluku Province is then based more on the Rural Ambon Island Area, with further changes. One of these is the consideration of blackout times and limited access to all-day electricity that is recorded clearly by utility companies, further reducing the energy consumption outside Ambon Island. Moreover, there are islands that are sparsely inhibited and counted more as green area, further reducing the percentage of used area outside Ambon.

Part III

Turning Maluku Towards a Sustainable Energy Future

In Part III of this book, potentials of energy saving through sufficiency and efficiency measures are discussed and applied to the three energy parties: living, working, and mobility. In order to transform Maluku Province into a plus–minus region, i.e., a region that produces more energy than it needs and sequesters more carbon than it emits, the regional regenerative energy potentials of the spatial urban and rural prototypes are investigated. This relates particularly to solar potentials, but also includes energy from wind, hydro, biomass, and waste, as well as geothermal and other options. Two transition scenarios are presented, the National Strategic Scenario (NSS) and the Ambitious Innovation Scenario (AIS). Based on these, a transition matrix is presented to achieve the energy transition in the Moluccas toward the 1.5-degree target in this century.

Chapter 13

Potentials for Energy Conservation

As explained in the chapters before, energy in Maluku is based on imported fossil fuel. Recent data from PLN and Pertamina show that fuel, such as coal, gas, and petroleum, serves as the base for modern energy usage. The rest is covered through traditional means with fuelwood (PT Pertamina Maluku, personal communication, March 15 2020; PT PLN Provinsi Maluku, personal communication, March 11 2020). Converting fuel to a usable form of energy means losses of the total usable energy, which is inevitable with all forms of energy carriers. Before recent research on fuel inefficiency made people aware that fossil fuels are a limited form of energy source, fuel inefficiency just meant that someone had to fill up more or buy more fuel. With the knowledge of the impact of fossil fuels on climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and the finite nature of fossil fuels, energy efficiency became something to consider. In Fig. 13.1 of the energy flow in Ambon, it can be seen that only part of the fuel is used to generate electricity. However, the power generation is quite inefficient. A combination of the type of fuel used, older generators, and transmission losses are factors in this large inefficiency. Most energy comes from liquid fuels that are either converted to electricity or used directly by the sector. There is a possibility that the fuel data used is incomplete because the fuel used for non-energy use is not clearly defined in the data obtained from various sources. The Sankey diagram is based on the following equation: E Ambon = (E coal − E losses, coal ) + (E fuel − E losses,fuel ) + (E gas − E losses,gas ) = E sold + E losses,distribution + E utility usage + E illegally tapped The equation calculates the total electricity generated and subtracted by the transformation losses for each resource type. This generated electricity equates to the total energy distributed by the Ambon electricity grid. The electricity that arrived at the customers (E sold ) is already reduced by distribution losses (E losses,distribution ), stolen

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_13

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Fig. 13.1 Sankey flow diagram showing energy flow of Ambon in 2019–2020 period

electricity and fuel from illegal sharing (E tapped ), and the utility company’s (PLN, Pertamina) own use (E utilityusage ). The sold energy is the amount that was calculated as the electricity and fuel demand by sectors. The transformation losses depend on the conversion technology that is used to convert the energy to another form. The first goal of the conservation of energy is to shave down fuel usage, especially in the domestic sector, both by saving electricity and reducing the direct usage of fuel. These savings could be achieved by changing the appliances and modifying the building design to use natural lighting instead of lamps, improve the ventilation inside houses, etc. Moreover, energy could also be conserved simply by educating people on simple energy-saving behavior. For example, only by optimizing the placement of windows the usage of a house’s electricity from cooling demand could be cut down by 12–23% (Ammar 2021). Of course, reducing energy consumption is logical; yet with human activities, it could not be reduced completely. In order to use renewable energy effectively, some

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processes that have been dependent on fuel must be electrified, such as cooking and mobility. Naturally, the electricity demand will rise in the future, and consequently, the electricity infrastructure has to be upgraded to make it more resilient. However, electricity could also be generated directly from renewable energy sources, for example, with photovoltaics. Electricity could also be easily converted into another form of energy and stored. Because of these factors, the electrification of the energy system would be the logical next step for the Maluku Province. Each energy consumer sector can reduce energy demand and, theoretically, convert the energy system to electricity. However, the conversion depends on many factors, from the availability of the electricity infrastructure, the sector’s readiness, social acceptance, and the technologies involved in the sector itself. The working sector clearly has different requirements than the living or mobility sector. To make the process much more effective in total, the authors believe that energy has to be generated within the spaces of human activities.

13.1 Living As explained in Chap. 3, we distinguish between the energy parties Living, Working, and Mobility. Living includes households, working includes commerce, trade, and industry, and mobility includes all means of transportation. The living sector in the Province of Maluku is the largest electricity consumer and comprises multiple building types from different socio-economic backgrounds (Pradipta 2021; PT PLN Provinsi Maluku, personal communication, March 11 2020). The household is also the base of calculation of other sectors and also the one which takes most space in the city of Ambon and the developed region of Maluku. The sector’s energy development is directly correlated to demographic changes. In Ambon, the residential buildings took up 12% of the total space of the island (Ammar and Genske 2021). The residential areas are divided into five EHZs (as seen in Tab. 13.1) and grouped into urban, rural, and the mixed-use regions according to their usage, building types, social and economic status. Shanties or condensed urban spaces with lower-thanaverage economic situation are included in the calculations as part of each urban prototype. Like other cities in Indonesia, with probably some exceptions in wealthier capital regions in Java, multiple story apartments are not yet widespread in Ambon and Maluku (Ammar 2021; Pradipta 2021) (Table 13.1). Fuel usage for the living sector is dominated by cooking consumption. Before the wide distribution of electricity, fuel is also used for lighting sources, even though the usage is minuscule and usually combined with cooking. The composition of the fuel is also changing; the most popular fuel, firewood, is declining with the growth of the province’s economy but still prevalent in the sector. Kerosene is now the primary fuel for households, with LPG slowly rising but still lower than the Indonesian standard. The conversion from fuelwood to modern fuel sources is significant in the Indonesian push to conserve the ecology and reduce emission. Indonesian LULUCF emission is one of the largest globally. The emission from this sector is also connected

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13 Potentials for Energy Conservation

Table 13.1 Residential prototypes on the island of Ambon and the model for the rest of Maluku (Ammar and Genske 2021) EHZa

General definition

Location

1

Rural, outside the city

Island borders, Low or in the woods

2

Rural, City borders connected to the city

3

Type of construction

Area proportions (from GIS data) (%)

Traditional

12

Low to middle

A mixture between traditional the modern

28

Urban, modern, Inside the city, and highly far away from developed the city center

High

Modern

4

4

Urban, middle

Inside the city, close to the city center

Middle to high

Modern

35

5

Urban, mix-use (residential and commercial)

In the city center

Middle

Modern

9

Shanty

Informal settlements

Inside the city, mixed with other prototypes

Low

Undefined, random build

12

a

Income level

Energetical homogeneous zones

to large-scale clearing of rainforest and woods. The fuelwood more or less became the byproduct of these clearings, besides the deliberate cutting of trees for fuelwood, which is seen on other rural tropical landscapes dominated by humans (Specht et al. 2015). The only saving attribute of this fuel source is that it does not inherently release extra CO2 emission on burning to the atmosphere1 (Wissenschaftliche Dienste des Deutschen Bundestages 2007). Using kerosene as fuel for cooking is not exactly a better alternative to the traditional biomass source. The usage of kerosene (known as minyak tanah in Indonesian) was widespread for low-income families all over Indonesia until the Indonesian government introduced low-cost subsidized LPG. In Eastern Indonesia, the program was not yet implemented, leading to cases of aviation-grade kerosene consumption for cooking in times of scarcity. LPG is viewed in Indonesia as highly efficient cooking fuel and causes less residue and CO2 emission than other counterparts. The push towards liquefied fossil fuels is caused by the depleting reserves of kerosene. However, 70% of LPG supply in 1

Fuelwood does emit CO2 at various levels, but it is counted to be zero (or neutral), as trees also absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. Coal or oil releases extra carbon that have been stored underground for million years to the atmosphere now by burning them.

13.1 Living

85

Indonesia (and therefore Maluku) is still imported from international sources, costing Indonesia almost e3 billion in subsidies in 2020 (Hussain et al. 2021). LPG produces less emission, is more effective, and almost have no residues compared to kerosene or fuelwood, but LPG is still a finite fossil fuel source. Electricity is, as in other sectors, supplied and distributed exclusively by the PLN. The living sector consumes about 420 GWh of around 660 GWh annual electricity purchased in Maluku. The growth in this segment is also driven by the economic growth and Indonesia’s electrification push by the government. Electricity is not yet a reliable energy source, as even the capital Ambon still experiences routine blackouts. The data from PLN also show that the electricity in some areas is not yet available 24 h a day. These reliability problems made the complete transition toward full electrification of household activities, such as cooking, still tricky as of now. Analyzing the energy consumption is done by creating calculation models of buildings and the appliances in each living sector prototype. As energy consumption is significant in this sector, our research team elaborated two separate estimates for each model for buildings and prototypes. The models are based on small surveys of Indonesian households, comparing them with interviews with people in Ambon, people in Jakarta, and Indonesian students in Germany about their homes in Indonesia (Ammar 2021; Patil 2021). The next step was to compare them with already researched literature about household energy usage from different origins. The data for appliances are taken from both local markets, the datasheets and white papers from popular appliances in Indonesia, datasets from literature, and personal observations. The power rating of the appliances is taken and combined with an approximation of usage times from each appliance in their homes. The averaged values are used in the calculation, combined with the estimated house sizes for each model (Ammar 2021; Patil 2021; Pradipta 2021). One of the remarkable observations of Indonesia’s households is the effect of firewood on the total energy usage and the effect of modern appliances. Firewood is an ineffective source of cooking heat. The fuel’s conversion efficiency to heat is only 16% compared to LPG’s 60% and kerosene’s 35–55% (Bruce et al. 2017). The energy usage of firewood for the same task is multiple times higher than current energy sources. Because of this factor, converting to more efficient energy sources will push down the total usage of energy in households. On the other hand, the improvement of the economic situation of the province made modern electronic alliances more readily available and affordable. The usage of cooling appliances, such as electronic fans and air conditioners, has become a common sight at homes. Moreover, as the design of the houses is made by only considering structural strength and functionality, the electricity usage is high in modern housings. This rise is also exacerbated by the recorded rise of the temperature, leading to more active hours of the cooling systems (Ammar and Genske 2021). In the USA and China alone, 500 million households use air conditioning. In total, 1.6 billion air conditioners are in operation today. However, 2.8 billion people live in the hottest parts of the world and only 8% of them have air conditioning. The IEA predicts that by 2050, a total of about 5.6 billion air conditioners will be operating

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13 Potentials for Energy Conservation

(IEA 2021). So, there is a great need to make air conditioners efficient in order to save electricity. This report pointed out that simple retrofitting measures in buildings can increase natural shading and effectively contribute to their cooling. The total potential for saving energy would depend on the EHZs themselves. Prototype 3, while being the largest consumer of energy, could have cut their energy usage the largest. The construction of the houses could be modified to lessen the demand of cooling demand and to keep the temperature inside the house cooler for a longer time while using air conditioning. In addition, the shape of the housings, the placement of windows, and the orientation of most homes in Ambon do not adhere to any kind of energy-saving standard (Table 13.2). As seen in Table 13.2 from Ammar and Genske (2021), there are nine measures detailed for reaching carbon neutrality in the sector. The steps detail interim and permanent solutions to use the energy more efficiently and use energy from cleaner sources, up to 100% reduction of CO2 emission. The total emission reduction is made by offsetting most energy demand to electricity and covering them with photovoltaics. In areas where access to electricity is still tricky, and electricity resource needs to be diverted into other needs, biogas could cover the energy demand for cooking. The temporary measures are to ease the transition of existing systems and because the measures themselves are more accessible to implement in the short to medium term. These measures start by solving the usage of fossil fuel in cooking. On one side, the measures state reducing fuel usage by delivering cheap and efficient fuelwood stoves to the rural areas (like the Save80 stoves). This step has two clear advantages: First, by lowering the fuelwood demand by up to 80%, the chopping of wood could be reduced, which mitigates forest loss and, at the same time, gives more time for the forest around the rural residential areas to recover. Second, social acceptance should be high, as the stove still uses this traditional biomass and still imparts the original taste of food using fuelwood. The stove is also easy to build and a relatively cheap and safe alternative other than open fire cooking. The second plan, in the beginning, will continue the government program of converting LPG from kerosene as cooking fuel. This step could seem counterintuitive, as LPG is also a fossil fuel. However, this step is a temporary measure, mainly to replace kerosene and fuelwood. Kerosene is still a worse fuel from the point of view of CO2 level and security than LPG. As stated in the table, LPG could reduce carbon emission by 18% compared to kerosene, save 76% of energy, and do not need electricity to run. Moreover, Pertamina is already building an LPG depot in Ambon to distribute LPG in the region. The steps following the reduction in cooking fuel usage are primarily permanent and deal more with the cooling, lighting, and general energy efficiency. These steps are done in preparation to convert all the household energy consumption into electricity by first lowering the existing electricity demand. This is done by changing the architecture of the buildings, using efficient LED lighting, and introducing rooftop PV as a source of electricity. The implementation will be connected to the existing EHZ by implementing measures where they are needed first.

Replacing traditional fuelwood stoves with stove Save80a

Conversion from kerosene to LPG

Partial use of solar cookers

Avoiding direct solar radiation inside building

Roof renovation of urban residential buildings

Separate indoor spaces and cool specific zones

1

2

3

4

5

6

Measure

Permanent

Permanent

Permanent

Temporary

Temporary

Temporary

Type of measure

21–31% reduction of cooling demand

37% reduction of cooling demand

12–23% reduction of cooling demand

30–40% reduction of kerosene or LPG demand and their emissions

– 18% reduction of CO2 -emissions factor of fuel – 76% reduction of energy needed for cooking

– 80% reduction of fuelwood demand – Reduction of indoor air pollution – Protecting forests from unsustainable logging

Energy efficiency and environmental effectiveness

Thermal simulation

Thermal simulation

Thermal simulation

After (Oliver Adria 2014)

After (Thoday et al. 2018)

After (Oliver Adria 2014)

Impact determination method

Table 13.2 Energy efficiency measures for the residential sector in Ambon (Ammar and Genske 2021)

3, 4, and 5

3 and 4

3, 4, and 5

3, 4, and 5

3, 4 and 5

1 and 2

Implementation in SUP

2020

2020

2020

2020

2020

2020

Start

(continued)

2025

2040

2040

2030

2030

2025

Finish

Implementation

13.1 Living 87

Photovoltaics on the roofs of residential buildings

9

Permanent

Permanent

Permanent

Type of measure

Impact determination method

100% reduction of CO2 -emission from electricity

Solid biomass waste recycling After (Patil 2021)

– 32–53% reduction of Thermal simulation lighting demand – 2–5% reduction of cooling demand

Energy efficiency and environmental effectiveness

All prototypes

1 and 2

All prototypes

Implementation in SUP

Highly efficient stainless-steel stove with a nominal effective thermal power of 1.5 kW and a pot capacity of 5 l

Biogas for cooking

8

a

LED lighting and efficient electrical appliances

7

Measure

Table 13.2 (continued)

2025

2030

2020

Start

2050

2070

2025

Finish

Implementation

88 13 Potentials for Energy Conservation

13.1 Living

89

These measures should be implemented in all houses and residential buildings in Ambon and, later, Maluku. Hence, extensive government policies and partnerships between the public and private sectors. There needs to be an enforcement of and application of carbon-friendly building standards, implemented together with the measures mentioned above. A lot of these steps also need the utility companies and the government to build supporting infrastructures necessary.

13.2 Mobility The energy party Mobility is dominating the fuel demand, although households (e.g., cooking gas) and, of course, commerce and industry also have shares in fuel demand. The energy party mobility splits into the fractions Road, Rail, Waterways, and Air. For all these fractions, various studies provide forecasts of future energy demand, both in the trend scenario and in various target scenarios. Cities and municipalities also prepare regional forecasts of traffic volumes and for the modal split (i.e., the distribution of traffic among different modes of transport). On the basis of these specifications, forecast functions for all fractions of the mobility sector can be adopted or also derived. It should be noted that fossil fuels have already been largely replaced elsewhere in the world by electricity in rail-based transport and are increasingly being replaced by electricity in road transport (which is, at the moment, still fossil). The extent to which e-mobility on roads will be implemented in the model area and whether other alternative types of propulsion, such as synthetic methane or hydrogen, should be considered is the subject of the target scenarios. Also of particular interest is the replacement of marine diesel with alternative fuels (hydrogen) or electric power (Everding et al. 2020). Transforming the mobility sector in the Lake Constance Alpine Rhine Energy Region (BAER) (Droege et al. 2018). The Lake Constance Alpine Rhine Energy Region (BAER) consists of parts of the German Bundesländer of Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria, as well as eastern Switzerland and western Austria. About 2.4 million inhabitants live in this almost 1.3 million ha (12,770 km2 ) large region. Within the framework of a study lasting several years, it was investigated whether this region around Lake Constance could completely supply itself with regenerative energy. A particular challenge was the regenerative transformation of the transport sector. It became clear that complete self-sufficiency in the BAER region would only be possible by solving the mobility problem. First, however, the supply of households, commerce and industry with renewable heat must be ensured. At the forecast horizon, there is a heat gap of about 2000 GWh/a in the innovation scenario. One option would be to generate e-methane from electricity surpluses.

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13 Potentials for Energy Conservation

When fed into the existing natural gas grid, this could help close the heat gap. This would require about 4200 GWh in 2050: the efficiency of electricity to e-methane is 60%, for e-methane to heat 80%. However, with the chosen assumptions in the innovation scenario, only 3500 GWh of surplus electricity remain. To generate the difference of around 700 GWh, the share of transport area used for renewable electricity generation (e.g., photovoltaics to cover parking lots, to supplement noise protection walls, etc.) could be increased in the innovation scenario from the current 1–4%. This would correspond to an area of around 1000 ha. It is also conceivable that existing restrictions on the use of wind power could be relaxed. If an additional 100 wind turbines with a capacity of 5 MW each were erected, they could generate around 900 GWh at an assumed full load of 1800 h per year. With a land requirement of 3 ha per MW of wind power, 1500 ha would be needed for this. Another option would be to use part of the e-methane generated from the renewable surplus electricity for long-distance mobility. If the entire surplus electricity were transformed accordingly, the renewable fuel supply could be almost quadrupled. Nevertheless, a large supply gap would remain in the renewable fuel sector. The best solution would be using the surplus electricity directly for emobility. Since e-mobiles are three to four times more efficient than vehicles powered by petroleum products, the surplus electricity could alternatively replace fossil fuel. If half of the surplus electricity were used as e-methane for long-distance mobility and the other half for e-mobility, the fuel gap could be reduced from the original 94% to 75%. As a result, the absolute fuel demand would decrease from 13,400 to about 7200 GWh/a in 2050 (2900 kWh per inhabitant per year). Using all excess electricity for e-mobility further reduced the fuel gap to 32% and total fuel demand of only about 1100 GWh/a (450 kWh per inhabitant per year). Since a minimum fuel demand of about 12% of the projected 2050 demand for aviation and shipping is to be provided (about 1600 GWh/a), the surplus electricity would not even be completely consumed and could be used, for example, to provide heat. To predict the demand for energy in the mobility sector, the authors track the sale of fuel in the region. This way, the research tries to avoid the energy conversion factors from multiple types of transportation modes. The mobility sector is also the only one that is not visualized spatially in this project. The approach is made to avoid calculation problems seen, for example, in marine transport. As an island region, ships and boats play an essential part in connecting the islands, fisheries, and tourism. Yet, there are no clear data of these kinds of boats, as not all boats use permanent motors, and not all of the motors are used daily. Pertamina sells all the fuel used in personal transport through their gas stations (SPBU), separated from the fuel sold to industries, power, and commercial sectors.

13.2 Mobility

91

Fig. 13.2 Mobility demand projection for road transportation in Ambon

The fuel that is used in public transports is also sold by the gas stations. For this reason, all the fuels that are sold through SPBU will be calculated as fuel for transport. Other fuel distribution channels include direct selling of fuel by Pertamina to the aviation industry and informal fuel businesses that are only reselling Pertamina’s fuel. In Ambon and Maluku, the most important people mover is currently the motorcycle. This transport mode is very versatile, relatively cheap, and hence, popular all over Indonesia. The omnipresence of the humble motorcycle is so apparent that in the 2019 transportation statistic from Ambon, the number of motorcycles is almost 400 times higher than the personal cars (Pemerintah Kota Ambon 2019b). Moreover, motorcycles in Indonesia are mainly powered by gasoline and are the largest consumer of gasoline in the province. Petrol and other crude oil derived products in Ambon accounts for almost 1500 GWh of energy used in 2018 from about 1950 GWh of fuel used in the sector.2 Diesel is also used in transportation, primarily for heavier vehicles. The introduction of high-quality diesel fuels is not equally distributed all over Indonesia and became the main factor of low usage of diesel for a personal vehicle. Biosolar (a type of biodiesel sold in Indonesia) is the only type of fuel distributed widely, which already introduces renewable fuel to the fuel-usage mix in the mobility sector. As could be seen from the data in 2020 (Fig. 13.2), this sector depends only on fossil fuels. To make matters worse, the lack of a good public transportation system made the population depend on personal transportation modes, such as motorcycles. Moreover, the number of vehicles is expected to grow along with the population and the economic situation. With the sector consuming almost 50% of fuel available for consumer use, reducing fuel usage (and emission) in the sector becomes crucial. One of the ways out is to switch the sector to electricity. If supported with clean and renewable sources of electricity, the mobility sector could be almost completely clean from carbon emissions. However, this change must be supported with better public 2

Fuel data are taken from personal communication with Pertamina Maluku; there is a difference in Gasoline data from the statistics provided from the BPS Maluku. For the purpose of the research, the amount of Gasoline from 2019 was taken, which was 156,260 kl.

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13 Potentials for Energy Conservation

transportation infrastructure to reduce the number of personal vehicles. Although rail transport is possibly out of the question due to the geographical condition of the region, electric medium busses in urban areas could fit the profile of urban and rural areas of Maluku. The remaining personal transport then could slowly change to e-mobility by using a combination of charging infrastructure and battery swapping technologies, which will be explained later in this book.

13.3 Working As already mentioned, we distinguish between the energy parties Living, Working, and Mobility. The energy demand of the working sector is the most difficult to determine. We have encountered this problem in other regions, even where energy statistics are kept at a high level. For example, when analyzing the City of Basel (Switzerland) on its way to a 2000-W Society (Berger et al. 2013, 2015), the energy demand share of industry, especially the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, remained obscure. This is not because data were not available, but because these data were not made available to the public. We, therefore, had to find other ways to find out the energy consumption of the working sector. We finally solved the problem by a reverse calculation. We simply assumed the total energy flowing into the system (the City of Basel), added the energy produced within the system, and simply subtracted the energy demand of the sectors living and mobility, for which we had solid figures and estimates. The remaining balance was to be the energy consumed in the working sector. Eventually, since we had energy data for the subsector Trade and Commerce, we were able to estimate the energy demand of the subsector Industry. For Ambon and the Province of Maluku, we encounter a similar situation. The commercial and industrial sectors are calculated from the rest of the energy flowing to other sectors. The industrial sector in the province is comparatively not as large as other parts of Indonesia, especially when we compare it to other islands like Java. The commercial sector is dominated by small-to-medium shops scattered around the settlements. The calculation for the commercial sector uses the observation of Pattimura University’s buildings, usage of average energy demand in offices in Jakarta per m2 , and combining most commercial sector calculations with residential situations where possible. Indeed, in the prototype divisions of the province, there are already considerations of mixed prototypes, such as prototype 5a. The mixed prototype is there to accommodate the urban buildings, which have significant commercial activity shared with residential spaces. These “Ruko” (Indonesian for Rumah Toko or House-Shops) are mainly urban phenomena with shops on the lower floors and living space on the upper floors. These shops usually have a typical energy usage, much different from the living spaces they share, therefore creating the prototype. In the rural areas and suburbs, however, there is also a lot of shared small-scale commercial activity in the residential areas. These are almost indistinguishable from

13.3 Working

93

the living activity and usually use the same space as the residential space itself. The people usually use the same kitchen and use whatever space is available to sell their fares or provide services. Thus, these commercial mixed areas are not as energyintensive as their specialized counterparts. As such, these commercial activities are still included in residential prototypes for our research. Specialized commercial and industrial spaces are not significant but is still available in Maluku. The rise of living standards in Ambon raises the number of new shopping malls and centers in Ambon, albeit in a smaller amount compared to the capital city of Indonesia. The newest shopping center in Ambon, the Maluku City Mall, is even included as one of the largest customers by electricity demand for the utility company (PLN) in Maluku (PT PLN Provinsi Maluku, personal communication, March 11 2020). These centers are very energy-intensive; they require full cooling during their operation hours and have different shops with different types of energy usage, and as such, the shopping malls are separated into a special prototype. Industrial activity in the Province of Maluku is dominated by agricultural, fishing industry, and shipping and marine transport activities. Although important, these industries don’t consume energy the same way as other energy-intensive industries (e.g., iron smelting). Therefore, the energy consumption in the industry sector in Maluku is relatively low compared to other provinces with manufacturing and other industries connected with mining and manufacturing. Because of these factors, the energy demand of the industrial sector could be calculated easily from the remainder of the calculated energy demand from other sectors, similar to City of Basel.

Chapter 14

Renewable Energy Potentials

The urban and rural spaces in the study area were divided into prototypical spaces. These prototypical spaces represent, as mentioned already, energetically homogeneous zones (EHZ), i.e., they are comparable with respect to their demand for energy. In addition, they are equivalent in terms of their ability to produce energy themselves, namely regenerative energy. Basically, it is possible to produce usable forms of energy such as electricity, heat, as well as fuels from renewable sources. Regenerative electricity potentials result from the use of photovoltaics, hydropower, and the conversion of biomass and biogas into electricity. Wind power plays only a minor role in urban areas. However, outside the cities, it is one of the essential options of regenerative power generation (provided that the wind supply justifies an investment). Furthermore, hydropower plays a major role, especially in regions with high rainfall, such as the Moluccas archipelago. In addition, there are special marine options such as wave or tidal power plants. Because of its warm climate, renewable heat generation plays a minor role in the model region. It is most likely to be used for domestic hot water supply, which can be provided by solar collectors and electrified water heater in most types of urban areas. There is also a demand for commercial process heat, but this is essentially generated with fuels or electricity. The need for heat, especially high-intensity heat, for industries could also not be covered yet by recent renewable technologies without converting the generated energy to electricity or fuels (like hydrogen). Solar collectors may be used to cover the hot water demand in living quarters and even commercial areas. However, they are not considered in our scenarios. The reason for this is that the roof area should be used more efficiently for electricity generation, as electricity is a more versatile source of energy. Therefore, only photovoltaics as a decentralized option (on the roof and on the facade) is considered. Renewable fuel production has been a major challenge to date. The attempt to replace fossil fuels with biofuels obtained from energy crops is increasingly being viewed critically. The amount of land required is too vast, and the ecological damage caused by monocultures of energy crops is too problematic. The conversion of green © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_14

95

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14 Renewable Energy Potentials

surplus electricity to renewable methane (e-methane) or hydrogen is also being discussed and might become a key option. Power-to-fuel technologies could be used to secure mobility, especially long-distance mobility via gas engines. The following section examines the various renewable energy generation options in light of the boundary conditions as they exist in Maluku Province. The potentials observed are not only the ones inside the EHZ in urban and rural areas of the province but also the centralized options of renewable energy generation still within said boundaries.

14.1 Solar Energy Life on earth wouldn’t be possible without the help of the energy from the sun. The only star of our solar system gave us enough warmth and light to have ideal conditions for living. The sun’s radiation has approximately more than 170 PW energy capacity, from which around 80 PW is available to the earth’s surface (Smil 2003). This amount of energy equals more than 1 million PWh, which is multiple times larger compared to 162.9 PWh of humanity’s primary energy consumption in 2019 (BP 2020). One well-known technology to harness the abundance of the sun is solar photovoltaics (PV ). The technology utilizes the sun’s rays to generate electricity from materials that have electricity potential when exposed to sunlight. Solar PV doesn’t have moving parts while generating energy and is thus more reliable as compared to energy generation based on turbines. Of course, there is a common problem for any sun-based energy harvesting: Solar irradiation is stochastic in nature. The availability of sunlight is limited by time, geographical condition, and weather situation. A study from IESR in 2021 indicated that the estimated power capacity from PV in Indonesia could range anywhere from 3397 to 19,835 GWp, depending on the amount of utilized space. This study is well above the previous official estimation made by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. The calculation is done using the technical capabilities of today’s photovoltaics and is limited to PV technical analysis according to geographical constraints and estimates of land use planning. This study shows that PV could cover the whole energy demand of Indonesia since it is well above the total 1700–2475 TWh primary energy consumption of the country, of which about 260 TWh is electricity (BP 2020). According to the same work, the whole of Maluku Province has the potential to produce anywhere between 90 and 573 TWh of electricity from solar photovoltaics. Patil and our research team have estimated this number to be lower, with around 800 GWh only in Ambon and 7.6 TWh in the rest of Maluku Province. The lower number is to be expected. The study performed by our team also takes the actual demand of each EHZ into account. Moreover, the economic situation of each EHZ is also considered. In addition, the STAR method focuses on areas which are already developed by humans, with the exclusion of green spaces even within the cities. All the factors combined means the area that could be used to generate electricity in our calculation is much lower than the IESR’s technical prediction.

14.1 Solar Energy

97

The usage of energy storage and energy conversion technologies is crucial for PV power. Sun irradiation is first limited by time. As Maluku and Indonesia are located near the equator, daylight lasts constantly for about 12 h per day. The climate also means that there is a lot of cloud coverage, especially during rainy seasons. All of these factors have a direct impact on the production of electricity. In our calculations, we assume the yearly direct normal irradiation (DNI) for Ambon to be in the order of 1100–1400 kWh/m2 (globalsolaratlas.info). This radiation can be directly utilized by PV to produce electricity. This is in comparison with, e.g., New York (USA) with 1500 kWh/m2 per year or Cape Town (South Africa) with 2160 kWh/m2 per year comparably small. In Berlin (Germany), the DNI is even smaller with only 970 kWh/m2 per year. Nevertheless, the Senate of Berlin plans to cover by 2050 25% of the city’s electricity demand with PV (i.e., 6 TWh). Studies show that this goal can be achieved with PV roofs and façade-mounted PV systems alone, without violating environmental standards or historic preservation regulations (Bergner et al. 2019). There are many types of photovoltaic systems, but Ambon and Maluku will generally use three types: • rooftop PVs • ground-mounted, and • floating PV. In order to push the energy transition for Ambon, rooftop photovoltaics will take the lead as the main energy harvester. When utilized according to each EHZ needs, 97% of the total electricity generation in Ambon could come from this technology. The rooftop PV has the advantage to directly satisfy the building demand on-site with support from the utility grid and small battery systems. Utility grid access is still needed to satisfy high unexpected peak demand and distribute excess electricity production back to the larger system. But the utility grid is not an absolute requirement; local microgrids in remote areas could support themselves with the help of other renewable energy sources. Tables 14.1 and 14.2 show the potential of PV with available technology as of now (2020–2021). It is interesting to note that Maluku Province has maximum power generation potential and capacity far in excess of projected energy demand. The potential calculation shows, if needed, this capacity could be tapped for further energy related developments in the future. Besides installing PV systems on buildings, it is also possible to install them directly on the ground. However, ground-mounted PV should only be installed if there is no higher use of the land, such as food production or nature conservation. Typical areas suitable for ground-mounted PV are brownfields. Typically, PV systems are installed for a period of time until the area is put back into use. Another option is to raise the ground-mounted PV system so that the area underneath can be used, for example, as pasture for livestock or for parking cars. For the model area, only a few spaced were spotted where ground-based PV plants could be installed. In Tables 14.1 and 14.2, there are already potentials calculated from ground-mounted installations near and around airports, calculated as utility

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Table 14.1 Overview of PV potential in Ambon Island (Patil 2021) Category

Type

Demand (GWh)

Electricity generation potential (GWh) (maximum)

Electricity generation potential (GWh) (based on need)

Solar PV power capacity (MWp) (maximum)

Solar PV power capacity (MWp) (based on need)

Living

Residential (EHZ 1–5a)

201

741

242

584

193

Shanty (EHZ 1a)

11

97

17

74

13

Commercial (EHZ 6–8)

117

98

41

68

48

Industrial (EHZ 7 9–10)

9

9

7

7

Floating/utility scale (also airport)

n.a

3

3

18

18

Totala

336

947

311

751

279

Working

Others

a Rounding

errors are taken into account

Table 14.2 Overview of PV potential in Maluku outside Ambon (Patil 2021) Category

Type

Demand (GWh)

Electricity generation potential (GWh) (maximum)

Electricity generation potential (GWh) (based on need)

Solar PV power capacity (MWp) (maximum)

Solar PV power capacity (MWp) (based on need)

Living

Residential (EHZ 1-5a)

1034

6482

1095

5129

853

Shanty (EHZ 1a)

13

179

15

136

12

Commercial (EHZ 6–8)

504

855

368

550

320

Industrial (EHZ 39 9–10)

72

39

52

28

Floating/utility scale (also airport)

N/A

32

32

22

55

Total

1589

7621

1549

5889

1268

Working

Others

14.1 Solar Energy

99

scale installations. As airports need ground clearance and an open space for the planes to land safely, usually there are unused spaces around airports that could be used to install large numbers of panels. For safety reasons, the panels used must be non-reflective panels. The third option chosen to increase the harvest of solar power is floating PV plants. Installing PC on lakes has become a global trend. According to the World Bank, total installed capacity worldwide has now grown from around 10 MW in 2014 to well over 1 GW in 2020. With floating PV plants otherwise unused water spaces can be utilized. They are comparably simple to install and have a higher efficiency since they are cooled from underneath. They reduce the evaporation rate and contribute to cooling the water body that otherwise could develop algae bloom that may develop in lakes as well as in the ocean. Only recently, an algae bloom was observed in the Sea of Marmara on the shores of Turkey. Floating PV may also serve as hiding spaces and breading grounds for fish. They may also be combined with other uses like the cultivation of clam fish, shrimp, and prawn. Today, photovoltaics on lakes seems to be an almost commonplace technology. Only recently, a floating PV plant with a capacity of 17 MW was built in France, and another with 25 MW was installed on an artificial lake in the Netherlands. The biggest floating PV plants have been installed in China and reach more than 100 MW. The largest one is the Guqiao Floating Solar Plant that was put in service in 2018 in the coal district of the Anhui. It has a capacity of 150 MW, producing 220 GWh per year (Sungrow Fact Sheet 2019). Indonesia has even planned, tested, and built floating PV plants; one example of this is the construction of floating PV installation near Cirata Dam, in West Java Province, with the planned capacity of 145 MW (Bellini 2021). When PV systems are installed on the sea rather than on a lake, the corrosion problem must be taken into consideration. Another danger is high waves, potentially destroying the plant. Nevertheless, offshore PV systems have already been installed in many places. Sunseap Group recently announced the completion of the largest floating PV project off the coast of Singapore with a capacity of 5 MW. One smart option is to combine floating PV systems with other renewable energy generation options. In the Netherlands, the North Sea 1 project will soon be expanded and combined with offshore wind turbines (oceansofenergy.blue). With this combination, periods of low (or no) solar radiation can be compensated by wind power. Another smart combination is floating PV systems on reservoirs that simultaneously generate solar power and hydropower. In our model area of Ambon, floating PV has been considered mainly within Ambon Bay. The location is chosen for the calm waters and activities of existing floating pontoons for fishing. The floating PV stations will be installed sporadically near-shore settlements. About 20 GWh annual electricity in optimal conditions could be generated from these installations in the bay, with the potential of adding more to the system by using other suitable locations around the shores of Ambon. Besides PV, also solar collectors could be installed on roofs or ground-based to provide thermal energy. Solar collectors are usually utilized to cover the hot water demand in living quarters. They are simple to install, relatively inexpensive and

100

14 Renewable Energy Potentials

widely used all over the world. Nevertheless, they are not considered in our scenarios. The reason for this is that the roof area should be used more efficiently for electricity generation. Therefore, as mentioned already, only photovoltaics as rooftop or facade options are considered.

14.2 Hydropower Hydro, especially hydrokinetic energy, is one of the first sources of extrasomatic energy humanity utilizes other than animals to do extra work (Smil 2017). It is also one of the first renewable sources of energy utilized to generate electricity. Hydrokinetic energy technologies utilize the movement of water, either natural (such as in rivers) or helped (by building dams). In its most basic modern form, the kinetic energy from the water is “captured” using water mills to rotate gears, which are connected to an energy converter, such as electric dynamos. Indonesia already utilizes hydroelectric power for quite some time. According to MEMR, about 66 TWh of electricity is generated annually in 2019 this way. The majority of the energy comes from the larger dams, yet there is already a minimal contribution of off-grid mini and micro hydropower plants. The source of energy is well known and enticing: The movement of water doesn’t create emissions, the energy is renewable, and for the most part, constant. However, large-scale hydropower does come with its own controversies. In order to harness the movement of rivers and provide massive and stable electricity, dams are built at major riverways all over the world. Hydropower dams need large investment and have massive effects on the surrounding environment. Not to forget, it needs river with a large volume of water movement in the first place. There are three main approaches for hydropower energy in Ambon and Maluku. The first is to use micro and mini hydropower along the small rivers, mainly the ones nearer to the settlements. This approach has relatively low risk and low cost. The goal of these small-scale power plants is to become a part of the off-grid electricity system or support existing on-grid demand, such as for street lightings, especially in Ambon. The contribution from the mini and micro hydropower plants is quite minor, but it could handle smaller-scale baseload demand. The electricity generation of these mini- and micro-projects is estimated to be in the order of 70 GWh per year (Rachman, 2022). It seems feasible that these plants could be installed gradually from 2030 onward and would reach their maximum potential in the innovation scenario by 2050. The most significant contributor to electricity production in total would be pump storage facilities. These facilities are used mainly for storing excess electricity in the form of pumped water. By working together hand in hand with photovoltaics, other storage technologies, and other renewable energy producers, the main purpose of these plants is to provide a stable energy supply at all times. The clean water supply problem has also plagued Ambon. These facilities can help mitigating the

14.2 Hydropower

101

clean water problem by installing desalination and filtration plants that have also to be powered by renewable technologies. Our ambitious scenario (that will be introduced later) considers different pumped storage facilities near Ambon, which could be operational from 2040. According to our estimates, they would generate up to 940 GWh per year, as storage capacity. A floating photovoltaic system would be installed on the storage lake, not only to generate electricity but also to reduce evaporation. The combined water-solar power plant would eventually provide 200 MWh per year.

14.3 Wind Power As one of the most popular renewable energy sources, the wind is also considered in Indonesia as one of the alternatives for an electricity source. The way to harvest wind energy for doing extrasomatic work is not that much different from the medieval era, with windmills. The giant wind turbines installed to convert wind energy to electricity started from ancient Persian design and evolved into streamlined windmill towers. One of the main contributors to the form, shape, and height of the turbines is the fact that the average wind speed increases around 1/7th the power of height and with higher wind speed comes higher power output. Wind energy as a renewable energy source started in the US in the 1980s and continues with the European push toward energy transition in the 1990s, led by Germany with Energiewende imperative (Smil 2017). In 2019, wind already entered the Indonesian energy mix, with various projects of wind power plants. From 2019, more than 450 GWh of electricity have been already generated by wind turbines. One of the most significant harvested wind energy sources in Indonesia comes from the Sidrap I power station in South Sulawesi. The wind farm consists of 30 windmills and has a capacity of 75 MW. An expansion of this plant (Sidrap II) is already planned, which will almost double the power plant’s capacity (MEMR 2020). In the Province of Maluku, however, wind energy would be difficult to implement, at least in the populated areas. From local weather data and data from Global Wind Atlas, wind speeds near Ambon only reach an average of about 5 m/s at 100 m above ground. Strong winds could be found offshore, around the southeast of the Kai and Aru islands, which are relatively sparsely populated and may not profit from largescale wind generators. According to our research, only a fair amount of wind energy could be harvested from hills and mountainous regions on the islands, for example, in Seram Island, north of Ambon where wind speeds may exceed 7 m/s at 100 m. The main challenge for wind energy, as already implicitly stated, is location and wind speeds. These problems are already expected, as renewable energies are always very dependent on local conditions. But newer technologies could help drive wind energy to even become useful for Maluku and Indonesia overall. One of the alternatives is to convert the harvested energy to hydrogen, creating green hydrogen directly from the electrolysis process. The hydrogen production

102

14 Renewable Energy Potentials

could be supported by floating platforms, which by themselves could also create electricity and are portable enough to be used anywhere in the Indonesian archipelago, as the weather situation permits. Of course, these technologies may be costly to implement as of now. Still, it is not impossible to further provide robustness to the energy system and answer future rising fuel demands. The New England Aqua Ventus project gives us a glimpse into the future of offshore wind farms. This project involves installing floating wind turbines that do not require fixed foundations but are anchored to the seabed with flexible anchors. The first commercial 30-MB floating wind farm is Hywind Scotland, located 20 km off the coast of Scotland. Japan is also experimenting with floating wind farms off Fukui Island, as are many other countries around the world. Therefore, it seems conceivable that a floating wind farm could also be built in the Maluku Province, utilizing Power to X principle to produce hydrogen. A possible location could be east off Pulau Boano Island, where wind speeds exceed 6 m/s in 150 m above the sea.

14.4 Bioenergy Indonesia is a tropical country with abundant biomass resources. Converting biomass into energy thus offers the country an enormous renewable capacity. There are several options for obtaining energy from biomass. The most common are: • Burning biomass to use it directly (e.g., for heating purposes). This traditional use is still widespread in Indonesia, especially in rural regions. • Fermentation of biomass to produce biogas: The feedstock (i.e., raw biomass) is slurried and digested anaerobically by microbes for several weeks. During this process, methane is produced, which (after purification) can eventually be used as fuel for vehicles, heating, and industrial processes. • Fermentation of biomass to produce biofuels: Feedstocks that can be used to produce ethanol include agricultural and forestry residues such as rice straw, wood chips, and of course sugar cane and many others. • Combustion of biomass (e.g., wood) to operate a combined heat and power (CHP) plant that efficiently generates both electricity and heat. Growing biomass solely for biofuel production consumes land resources and reduces biodiversity. Therefore, the most sustainable solution is to valorize biomass waste. There are different types of biowaste that can be used for energy production: agricultural biowaste, municipal household waste, industrial waste from food processing or other biomaterials, green waste from park maintenance, and many more. Table 14.3 provides an overview of agricultural production in Maluku Province, our model region. Since biomass seems to be abundant and possibilities for energy production from biomass are available, the production of biogas, biofuels, and green electricity is

14.4 Bioenergy

103

Table 14.3 Agricultural production for selected products in the Province of Maluku Agricultural product

Production in Ambon (t)

Production in Province Maluku (without Ambon) (t)

Durian

213

11,123

Pisang

41,489

32,014

Nutmeg

746

4766

Coconut

708

102,138

Papaya

81

7168

Jackfruit

200

3945

Mangoes

138

8189

Siamese Oranges

5

12,852

Rambutan

88

1187

neither a question of resources nor of technology. Rather, it is a matter of policy implementation and public awareness. Tables 14.4 and 14.5 list electricity production from biomass, i.e., solid biofuels, liquid biofuels, biogas, municipal waste, and industrial waste (IEA 2021). Indicated are the global increase since 1990 (Table 14.3) and the increase in Indonesia (Table 14.4). The data are visualized in Fig. 14.1. To make the data comparable, the amount of bioelectricity generated per capita is presented. For 2025 and 2030, the Sustainability Development Scenario (SDS) of the International Energy Agency is plotted. The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines the SDS as a “primary long-term climate mitigation pathway … [to reach] … net-zero emissions by the year 2070”. The scenario is thus “fully compatible with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement … [and] … aims at achieving other United Nations Sustainable Development Table 14.4 Bioelectricity production worldwide (IAE 2021) Industrial Primary Biogases waste solid (GWh)a (GWh)a biofuels (GWh)a

Municipal Liquid Total waste biofuels (GWh) (renew) (GWh)a (GWh)a

World Biopower/person population (kWh/p) (billion)b 5.33

22.78

1990 7665

101,783 3652

8313

21,413

1995 10,936

88,903

11,980

17,984

2000 15,259

100,656 13,125

17,374

6.14

23.85

2005 11,662

146,365 21,154

24,296

1981

205,458 6.54

31.42

2010 26,607

225,946 46,801

33,008

4994

337,356 6.96

48.47

2015 28,426

323,818 83,557

37,528

8255

481,584 7.38

65.26

2018 42,301

421,131 88,986

38,648

8349

99,415

78.56

6165

46,414

7.63

Resources considered are solid biofuels, liquid biofuels, biogas, municipal waste, and industrial waste a IEA Renewables Information 2020, https://www.iea.org/subscribe-to-data-services/renewables-statistics b Statista 2021, https://de.statista.com/

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14 Renewable Energy Potentials

Table 14.5 Bioelectricity production in Indonesia (IAE 2021) Industrial Primary Biogases waste solid (GWh)a (GWh)a biofuels (GWh)a

Municipal Liquid Total waste biofuels (GWh) (renew) (GWh)a (GWh)a

Population Biopower/person of (kWh/p) Indonesia (million)b

1993 0

4

4

188.45

0.02

1995 0

5

5

194.76

0.03

2000 0

6

6

206.27

0.03

2005 0

22

22

221.40

0.10

2010 0

95

95

242.52

0.39

2015 0

461

2019 0

9412

398

10

653

1124

255.59

4.40

259

904

10,973 266.91

41.11

Resources considered are solid biofuels, liquid biofuels, biogas, municipal waste, and industrial waste a IEA Renewables Information 2020, https://www.iea.org/subscribe-to-data-services/renewables-statis tics b Statista 2021, https://de.statista.com/

Fig. 14.1 Bioelectricity production worldwide and in Indonesia (IAE 2021). Resources considered are solid biofuels, liquid biofuels, biogas, municipal waste, and industrial waste. Also shown are the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2025 and 2030 SDS targets

Goals (SDGs), in particular, to achieve access energy for all and to minimise air pollution” (IEA 2021). The graph clarifies that Indonesia has moved closer to the world standard values for per capita bioelectricity generation, especially in the last decade. It appears that Indonesia is about to join the global trend. This observation makes it possible to forecast biopower generation in Indonesia and also allows the projection to our

14.4 Bioenergy

105

Table 14.6 Total biopower production potential in the Province of Maluku for the National Strategic Trend Scenario and the Ambitious Innovation Scenario Population Province of Maluku

Trend scenarioa (kWh/p.a)c

Innovation scenariob (kWh/p.a)c

Trend scenario (NSS) (GWh/a)d

Innovation scenario (AIS) (GWh/a)d

2030

1,877,918

29

137

54

257

2040

1,910,782

35

137

68

261

2050

1,944,220

42

137

82

266

2060

1,978,244

51

137

101

270

2070

2,012,864

60

137

121

275

2080

2,048,089

69

137

141

280

2090

2,083,930

78

137

162

285

2100

2,120,399

86

137

183

290

a

Picks up the national trend of Indonesia b Equals the IEA-SDS scenario and keeps the IEA-2030 SDS target c kWh per person and year d GWh per year

model region, the Maluku Province. A conservative trend function for Indonesia (buffering the exponential increase from 2010 to 2020) can be written as: E bio,trend = 274,36 × a − 548420 with E bio,trend being the total biopower in GWh per year and a the year. This function is assumed for the trend scenario (which is associated with the National Strategic Scenario NSS as explained later). For our innovation scenario (later referred to as Ambitions Innovation Scenario AIS), the 2030 SDS target of the IEA is followed. After 2030, the target production is maintained at 137 kWh per person per year of bioelectricity production. This figure is obtained by dividing the IEA’s 2030 1168 TWh target by a world population of 8.55 billion. Table 14.6 lists the production per person and the total production of bioelectricity for the National Strategic Scenario and the Ambitious Innovation Scenario. Note that production for the innovation scenario also increases after 2030 due to population growth. Figure 14.2 illustrates the two scenarios. Referring back to Table 14.3, it can be concluded that more than 200,000 tons of biomass appear to be available from agricultural production, the waste from which yielding 40–60 GWh of electricity per year. The biomass from agriculture will be combined with approximately 200 GWh worth of bioenergy from animal

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14 Renewable Energy Potentials

Fig. 14.2 Biopower production for the National Strategic Trend scenario and the Ambitious Innovation Scenario for the Province of Maluku

manure.1 It follows that the assumptions for both scenarios and the derived production figures appear feasible. It has to be taken into account that there is more agricultural waste and animal waste than the statistical data, as informal farming and husbandry practices are not taken into the official calculations. The increase in bioenergy in Indonesia is still driven by the use of fuel derived from palm oil. According to production data from PLN Maluku and the Indonesian regulation of Biofuel, Indonesia targets to rise the proportion of FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ester) in Indonesia’s biodiesel product. The biodiesel, marketed for the public as Biosolar, is used in industries, in the mobility sector, and as fuel for generating electricity. The proportion of biodiesel vs. normal diesel in the product Biosolar was raised to 30% in 2020 and will be slowly raised to 100%in 2030. Nevertheless, the contribution from palm oil is not considered in our innovation scenario because of two reasons: First, the production of palm oil for fuel is not in line with the principle of a sustainable development. Second, we are trying to cover the energy demand of the Maluku Province intra muros, i.e., we are not considering energy inputs from outside the province (for the innovation scenario). The goal is, as mentioned already, to create a plus-minus-region, a region that provides more renewable energy than needed and binds more carbon than it emits.

Energy from the durian fruit The durian fruit (Fig. 14.3) is an edible fruit with a thorny skin that can grow up to 30 cm and weigh up to 3 kg. Both the pulp and the seeds can be eaten and enrich the Southeast Asian cuisine. However, the smell of the fruit is somewhat peculiar, so much so that certain hotels and airlines have banned the

1

The gas calculation comes from approximate animal manure production, combining data from livestock population in Maluku in 2018 (Hutauruk (2019)) and with the method described by Boysan et al. (2015).

14.4 Bioenergy

107

fruit. Indonesia is one of the leading producers of durian, producing more than one million tons annually (statista.com).

Fig. 14.3 Durian fruit

A joint project between Pattimura University of Ambon (Indonesia) and Nordhausen University of Applied Sciences (Germany) studied the skin of the fruit, which is discarded after consumption, to estimate how much biogas could be produced. In October/November 2018, fermentation experiments were conducted by two students in the Biological Processes Laboratory at Nordhausen University of Applied Sciences. These experiments were based on the national standard of the Association of German Engineers (fermentation test according to VDI 4630). For the dried durian peels delivered, the biogas yield is in the order of 383 cubic meters per ton of dry organic matter (Einicke 2020). The methane yield is about 50% of the biogas produced, or 192 m3 of CH4 . According to the Agency for Renewable Resources (German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture), one cubic meter of methane provides 9.97 KWh of total energy and 3.3–4.3 kWh of electrical energy. Thus, one ton of dry organic matter from durian is equivalent to 1914 kWh of total energy or 632–823 kWh of electrical energy. This simple example shows the enormous potential of bioenergy from agricultural waste in Indonesia and Maluku. The fruit and other bio sources have to be researched further as an alternative source of energy, to complement the renewable energy mix in Indonesia.

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14 Renewable Energy Potentials

14.5 Geothermal Energy The processes of geothermal energy generation are independent of the sun and wind and thus provide continuous energy. When discussing the different options, a distinction must be made between techniques for generating thermal energy and techniques for generating electricity, as well as techniques that generate both. In addition, a distinction must be made between shallow geothermal energy, which reaches a depth of about 100 m, and deep geothermal energy, which reaches much deeper into the ground. Deep Geothermal Energy for Power Generation With about 29 GWe, Indonesia has the largest geothermal potential in the world (Huttrer 2020). This is because of its location on the 40,000 km long Circum-PacificBelt where several tectonic plates meet and collide. The Circum-Pacific-Belt is also referred to as the “Ring of Fire” and is characterized by active volcanos and frequent earthquakes. Although Indonesia is ranked as the second nation in the world for installed geothermal power generation in 2020, with 2289 MWe (after the US with 3700 MWe), it has so far only realized about 8% of this potential, as more than half of the installed capacity is located in Java (MEMR 2021). This capacity accounts for more than 14 TWh of electricity annually in 2019 (MEMR 2020). In order to promote geothermal power generation, the Government of Indonesia has introduced a number of laws as early as 2003 already, and the target has been set to increase the generation to 9500 MWe. Lately, it has been adjusted to 7000 MWe by 2025 (Pambudi 2018). However, due to unattractive return rates, economic risks, environmental and social problems, this figure is unlikely to be reached on time (Huttrer 2020). There is already research on geothermal power capacity in Maluku (see Fig. 14.4). According to the survey by University Pattimura and PLN, there are potentials for geothermal in the province, as much as 649 MWe. One of these potential geothermal wells is found in the Tolehu area of Ambon Island, with an expected capacity of 100 MWe. However, the latest research shows that the reservoir temperature would not be enough for generating electricity. Nevertheless, there is a high level of geothermal power generation that could also be used in Province of Maluku. However, we consider this option of power generation unlikely for the next decades, as the demand does not seem to be sufficiently strong to justify investments of this magnitude. Shallow Geothermal Energy for Cooling In regions with temperate climates, shallow geothermal energy (less than 100 m deep) is well suited for the provision of room heating and thus complement solar collectors, which primarily serve to supply hot water. However, for the Moluccan archipelago, this option of heat generation is not interesting because of the tropical climate. However, the process can also be reversed, and instead of heat, ground source heat pump systems can also be used to generate cooling, e.g., for shopping centers,

14.5 Geothermal Energy

109

Fig. 14.4 Geothermal Potential Map of Maluku (MEMR Maluku)

schools, or office complexes. It must be taken into account, however, that the electricity for operating the necessary heat pumps must be sourced from clean sources of electricity so that the system is nearly carbon neutral. It must also be considered that the groundwater is heated by the borehole heat exchangers when the cooling function is used. This may be associated with a degradation of groundwater quality. Since groundwater is a higher good when weighed against cooling, this option is not pursued further for the model area as of now. Additionally, geological experts of Pattimura University concluded that the geothermal output in the northeastern tip of Ambon Island would be too cold and shallow for producing electricity. The wells in Tolehu (Fig. 14.4, point number 6) were expected to provide 100 MWe of electricity, but the reservoir temperature was found to be lower than the expected 190 °C. These wells could potentially be a starting example for cooling based on shallow geothermal pump systems.

14.6 Thermal Energy from Wastewater A new and innovative option for heat supply is the recovery of heat from wastewater collected in urban areas. Its benefits have already been demonstrated in many European cities such as Basel, Zurich or Sandvika near Oslo. A building-related heat extraction takes place either still in the building (before the wastewater enters the

110

14 Renewable Energy Potentials

sewer system) or in special wastewater collection shafts close to the building. A heat extraction without building reference takes place in the sewer with heat exchangers. With the help of heat pumps, the recovered heat can be used to provide hot water. As with ground source heat pump systems, the process of extracting heat from wastewater can also be reversed. Instead of heat, cooling can then be provided. In this case, the wastewater would heat up as a result of the thermal extraction. For the model area, however, this option is not pursued further, since there is no modern wastewater system yet. However, it would be interesting to think about the utilization of the thermal energy of wastewater when designing a modern wastewater system for Ambon in the future.

Chapter 15

Two Scenarios for a Renewable Transition

In a model region, sustainability goals of various kinds can be defined. For example, a region could achieve regenerative self-sufficiency. The focus could also be on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to zero (IBA-Hamburg 2010; Droege et al. 2012b). Another goal could be the 2000-W Society, as targeted for the Canton City of Basel in Switzerland (Berger et al. 2011a). In Maluku Province, the goal is not only to achieve self-sufficiency in renewable energy. Rather, the region should ultimately produce more renewable energy than it needs to meet its demand (including all energy parties). Similarly, Maluku Province should sequester more carbon than it emits. The goal, then, is to create a Plus-Minus Region, one that produces more renewable energy than it needs and sequesters more carbon than it emits. This scenario defines our innovation scenario. This contrasts with a national scenario that follows the trend and is essentially determined by the conventional energy market and political requirements. The development of the scenarios is modeled in time intervals of decades, starting with the reference year 2020. The intended forecast horizon is the year 2100.

15.1 National Strategic Scenario (NSS) In the trend scenario, the current development is continued. There is hardly any effort to refurbish the buildings in terms of energy. Efficiency increases in the transport, and labor sectors also remain moderate. A trend scenario assumes a price-driven development. Measures are only taken when there is a need for action. Due to the dynamic development of energy prices, it can be assumed that this need for action often leads to pressure to act, which triggers hasty, poorly reflected measures that are costly in retrospect.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. D. Genske and G. M. Pradipta, Establishing Plus-Minus-Energy-Regions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93596-2_15

111

112

15 Two Scenarios for a Renewable Transition

The National Strategic Scenario (NSS), however, is more demanding than the trend scenario since it follows the strategies described in the LTS-LCCR 2050 document published by Indonesia to the UNFCC in accordance with Article 4 paragraph 19 of the Paris Agreement. The document describes Indonesia’s renewed low-carbon development strategies with respective mitigation pathways for each sector. The strategy includes scenarios for the Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) sector, the energy sector, the waste sector, and the Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector. From the three scenarios available for comparison in the LTSLCCR 2050 document, the LCCP scenario (Low Carbon Scenario Compatible with Paris Agreement target) will be taken and extrapolated until the year 2100. Our scenario comparison focuses more on the energy sector, mainly on the power sector. As a coal producer and exporter, coal in electricity generation is and will still be a part of the energy mix until the 2050s. Other fossil-based fuel sources, such as gas, also still play an essential role. This national share of fossil vs. renewables will also be transferred to the Maluku region by comparing the energy data and shares. On the demand side, energy demand is predicted to increase with the increase in welfare and growth of the population. However, the rise in demand will be dampened by efficiency measures for the end-user. Yet, there is no explicit parameter of the efficiency measures for all the available scenarios. The LCCP scenario predicted that the total final energy demand in 2050 will be around four times that from 2010. As already noted in Sect. 9.2, the government’s scenario will instead focus on the installation of carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS) on traditional fossilfuel-based power plants. As stated in the document, Indonesia will keep 43% of the power generation from coal. The CO2 emission from these plants will be then reduced with carbon capture tech installation. The renewables will only account for up to 43% of the total share of power generation in this scenario. Solar power will be the major supplier of energy, with 113 GW of predicted national capacity. It will be followed by other forms of renewables, such as hydropower, geothermal, etc. The document also states the use of the smart grid to distribute the energy but it will mainly be focused on remote areas with 100% renewable energy dependency. The reduction of emission in the transport sector is focused on changing the fuel used to biofuels and electricity. The government program to introduce FAME (CPO-based) biofuel is considered to be successful and will be continued. On the other hand, there is a consideration to shift inter-city transportation to trains (mainly in Java Island) to reduce the overall energy demand. The changing development direction of transport modes in cities also would allow the mass public transport systems to be more popular, albeit without concrete numbers.

15.2 Ambitious Innovation Scenario (AIS) In the Ambitious Innovation Scenario (AIS), the energy supply of the future is designed consciously and with foresight. A significantly higher renovation rate in

15.2 Ambitious Innovation Scenario (AIS)

113

the building sector is assumed. Furthermore, it is assumed that the technically usable renewable energy resources that can be identified today will be realized by 2100. The AIS’s goal is to reach independence from fossil-based energy production. The AIS assumes a reflective development. Measures are taken with foresight before the pressure to act arises. In this way, undesirable developments are countered, and bad investments are avoided. The renewable energy utilization of the scenario will be maximized according to technical research for respective technologies. According to the scenario, there are no fossil-based electricity generation nor usage of carbon capture storage technology connected to electricity generation. The transport system will depend on electrified personal transport with a mix of biofuel alternatives for other parts of the sector.

15.3 The Strategy Matrix The energy model to be developed for the Moluccas is controlled by system elements referred to as “adjusting screws”. These adjusting screws concern population development, climate change, spatial development, energy consumption, renewable potentials, and possible infrastructure measures. The adjusting screws can be changed and adapted to current developments. The resulting effect becomes visible in the form of key figures such as the degree of self-sufficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, systematic differential costs, and labor market effects. Table 15.1 summarizes the adjusting screws in a strategy matrix for both the NSS and the AIS. Table 15.1 Strategy matrix for the NSS and the AIS for the Province of Maluku Adjusting screws

NSS

AIS

General trends Climate change

It is assumed that the 1.5-degree target will be met or only slightly exceeded. According to the (IPCC, In press, 2021) tipping points such as ice sheet collapse will be avoided. Extreme weather events will become more frequent and sea level rise will continue but remain moderate. These changes will have impacts on the NSS and AIS scenarios but will be manageable. Climate adaptation and ecosystem stabilization measures will be necessary but feasible

Population development

Population growth according to UN Middle Projection for Population

Spatial development

Development is mapped with spatial planning of the Province of Maluku

Energy demand Renovation rate in the building sector

Price-driven renovation

Ambitious as described in Sect. 13.1

Efficiency rates

Balanced with population growth

25% base demand electricity reduction per capita for 2100 (continued)

114

15 Two Scenarios for a Renewable Transition

Table 15.1 (continued) Adjusting screws

NSS

AIS

Renewable energy production General situation

43% Renewables by 2050; coal phase-out by 2056

Sun

The realization of decentralized PV potential (roof and façade systems only) depends on the EHZ (Tables 14.1 and 14.2) Utilization of 52% of the needed decentralized potential by 2050

Utilization of 100% of the needed decentralized potential by 2050, with more energy produced than needed

PV

GWh/a

Solar collectors Wind

2020

2100