Encyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change [Volumes 1-3] 9781141295878, 9781412958783, 1412958784

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ENCYCLOPEDIA OF

Global Warming and Climate Change

ENCYCLOPEDIA OF

Global Warming and Climate Change S. George Philander GENERAL EDITOR

VOLUMES 1 - 3

Copyright © 2008 by SAGE Publications, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. For information: SAGE Publications, Inc. 2455 Teller Road housand Oaks, California 91320 E-mail: order @ sagepub.com SAGE Publications Ltd. 1 Oliver’s Yard 55 City Road London EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd. B 1/ I 1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044 India SAGE Publications Asia-Pacific Pte. Ltd. 33 Pekin Street #02-01 Far East Square Singapore 048763 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Encyclopedia of global warming and climate change / S. George Philander. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4129-5878-3 (cloth) 1. Global warming–Encyclopedias. 2. Climatic changes–Encyclopedias. I. Philander, S. George. QC981.8.G56E47 2008 363.738’7403--dc22 2008006238 his book is printed on acid-free and recycled paper. 08 09 10 11 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 GOLSON BOOKS, LTD. President and Editor Creative Director Managing Editor Copyeditor Layout Editors Proofreaders Indexer

J. Geofrey Golson Mary Jo Scibetta Susan Moskowitz Mary Le Rouge Kenneth W. Heller Stephanie Larson Oona Hyla Patrick Deborah Green Summer G. Ventis Barbara Paris J S Editorial

SAGE REFERENCE Vice President and Publisher Project Editor Cover Production Marketing Manager Editorial Assistant Reference Systems Manager

Photo credits are on page I-79.

Rolf A. Janke Tracy Buyan Janet Foulger Amberlyn Erzinger Michele hompson Leticia Gutierrez

ENCYCLOPEDIA OF

Global Warming and Climate Change CONTENTS About the General Editor

vi

Preface

vii

Reader’s Guide

ix

Introduction

xvii

List of Articles

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List of Contributors

xliii

Chronology

xlvii

Articles A to Z

1–1120

Resource Guide

1121

Glossary

1127

Appendix

A-1

Index

I-1

Encyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change About the General Editor S. George Philander, Ph.D. Knox Taylor Professor of Geosciences, Princeton University Research Director, ACCESS S. George Philander, Knox Taylor Professor of Geosciences at Princeton University, and Research Director of ACCESS (African Centre for Climate and Earth System Science) in Cape Town, South Africa, has a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Cape Town, and a Ph.D. (Applied Mathematics) from Harvard University. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Geophysical Union, and the American Meteorological Society. Philander’s research interests include the oceanic circulation, interactions between the ocean and atmosphere that result in phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, paleoclimates (including the recurrent Ice Ages of the past three million years), and future global climate changes. His two books for laypersons, Is the Temperature Rising? he Uncertain Science of Global Warming, and Our Afair With El Niño: How We Transformed an Enchanting Peruvian Current Into a Global Climate Hazard relect his keen interest in improving communications between scientists and laymen. he goal of the African climate center, which Philander is currently directing, is to give Africa its own voice on environmental issues such as global warming.

Preface PLANET EARTH HAS become the concern of every-

one. he activities of conservation biologists are now of interest to economists and political scientists who wish to ind out whether certain environmental problems are best solved by regulations or market forces. Businesspeople, government oicials, and politicians have become involved in science. To be useful to such a diversity of people, the nearly 750 entries in this 3-volume encyclopedia cover a vast range of topics afecting global warming and climate change. he entries amount to more than a catalog of terms; they are all part of one story about global warming and how it is likely to afect our world. Scientiic objectivity have been the watchwords for the editors of this encyclopedia, yet diferent perspectives that various authors have on some of these issues are part of a conversation that citizens or students concerned about the environment ignore at their own risk. Even the title of the work, Encyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change, was carefully considered to include paleoclimatology in the discussion of weather, climate, and the current debate about global warming. he authors of the entries include geographers, political scientists, chemists, anthropologists, medical practitioners, development experts, and sociologists. hey are experts in their ields of specialty; many are researchers with extensive ieldwork experience; most of the entries on emerging techniques

and technologies were written by innovators. As the volumes intend, it has become increasingly essential to bring the multiplying global warming issues, concepts, theories, examples, problems, and policies together in one place, with the goal of clearly explaining an emerging way of thinking about people and their planet. Among the selection of articles, speciic country entries are included, rather than climatic or environmental regions, to give the reader the opportunity to get information on the status of global warming—its causes and efects—by country, from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. Also included are articles within speciic categories, including: atmospheric sciences; climate; climate change efects; climate and society; climate feedbacks; climate models; institutions studying climate change; oceanography; paleoclimates; programs and conventions; and people studying climate change. Pedagogical elements of this encyclopedia include the 4-color Introduction by General Editor Dr. S. George Philander, in which the reader can get a “bird’s-eye view” of the sciences behind global warming. Also included in the work are a chronology of climate change, resource guide, glossary, and appendix of charts and table graphically presenting relevant data. Altogether, we hope the encyclopedia provides some groundwork for further discussion and spur possible action to curb global warming. vii

Reader’s Guide his list is provided to assist readers in inding articles related by category or theme. ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Aerosols Anticyclones Atmospheric Absorption of Solar Radiation Atmospheric Boundary Layer Atmospheric Composition Atmospheric Emission of Infrared Radiation Atmospheric General Circulation Models Clouds, Cirrus Clouds, Cumulus Clouds, Stratus Condensation Convection Coriolis Force Cyclones Doldrums Evaporation and Transpiration Evolution of the Atmosphere Hadley Circulation Heat, Latent Heat, Sensible Hurricanes and Typhoons Hydrological Cycle Intertropical Convergence Zone Jet Streams Mesosphere Monsoons

Precipitation Radiation, Absorption Radiation, Infrared Radiation, Long Wave Radiation, Microwave Radiation, Short Wave Radiation, Ultraviolet Rain Stratosphere hermosphere hunderstorms Trade Winds Troposhere Walker Circulation Waves, Gravity Waves, Internal Waves, Kelvin Waves, Planetary Waves, Rossby Weather Winds, Easterlies Winds, Westerlies CLIMATE Abrupt Climate Changes Aerosols Albedo ix

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Reader’s Guide

Anthropogenic Forcing Carbon Cycle Chaos heory Climate Cycles Climate Forcing Climate hresholds Climate Zones Climatic Data, Atmospheric Observations Climatic Data, Cave Records Climatic Data, Historical Records Climatic Data, Ice Observations Climatic Data, Instrumental Records Climatic Data, Lake Records Climatic Data, Nature of the Data Climatic Data, Oceanic Observations Climatic Data, Proxy Records Climatic Data, Sea Floor Records Climatic Data, Sediment Records Climatic Data, Tree Ring Records Detection of Climate Changes Earthshine El Niño and La Niña Gaia Hypothesis Global Warming Greenhouse Efect Greenhouse Gases History of Climatology History of Meteorology Hydrological Cycle Internal Climate Variability Methane Cycle Milankovitch Cycles Monsoons North Atlantic Oscillation Oxygen Cycle Seasonal Cycle Southern Oscillation Sunlight hermodynamics Volcanism World Systems heory CLIMATE AND SOCIETY Adaptation Alternative Energy, Ethanol Alternative Energy, Solar Alternative Energy, Wind An Inconvenient Truth Automobiles Bush (George W.) Administration Capitalism

Clean Air Act, U.S. Clinton Administration Coal Conservation Culture Ecological Footprint Education Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Framework Convention on Climate Change Geography Globalization Greenhouse Efect Greenhouse Gases Gross National Product Health Industrialization Maximum Sustainable Yield Measurement and Assessment Media, Books and Journals Media, Internet Media, TV Movements, Environmental Needs and Wants Nuclear Power Oil, Consumption of Policy, U.S. Population Preparedness Public Awareness Regulation Religion Resources Risk Social Ecology Sustainability Technology Tourism CLIMATE CHANGE, EFFECTS Adaptation Agriculture Animals Arctic Ocean Attribution of Global Warming Aviation Desertiication Deserts Diseases Drought Economics, Cost of Afecting Climate Change

Reader’s Guide

Economics, Impact From Climate Change Ecosystems Floods Food Production Glaciers, Retreating Hurricanes and Typhoons Impacts of Global Warming Oceanic Changes Plants Polar Bears Rainfall Patterns Sea Level, Rising Species Extinction hermohaline Circulation Transportation Tsunamis CLIMATE FEEDBACKS Biogeochemical Feedbacks Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks Cloud Feedback Dynamical Feedbacks Evaporation Feedbacks Ice Albedo Feedback Radiative Feedbacks CLIMATE MODELS Atmospheric Component of Models Climate Model Computer Models Energy Balance Models Historical Development of Climate Models Ice Component of Models Land Component of Models Modeling of Ice Ages Modeling of Ocean Circulation Modeling of Paleoclimates Ocean Component of Models Simulation and Predictability of Seasonal and Interannual Variations Validation of Climate Models COUNTRIES: AFRICA Algeria Angola Benin Botswana Brunei Darussalam Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon

Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo Congo, Democratic Republic of Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Egypt Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda São Tomé and Principe Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe COUNTRIES: AMERICAS Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Bahamas Barbados Belize

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Bolivia Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago United States of America Uruguay Venezuela COUNTRIES: ASIA Afghanistan Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia China East Timor Georgia (Nation) India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Korea, North Korea, South

Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Laos Lebanon Malaysia Maldives Mongolia Myanmar Nepal Oman Pakistan Philippines Qatar Russia Saudi Arabia Seychelles Singapore Sri Lanka Syria Tajikistan hailand Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates Uzbekistan Vietnam Yemen COUNTRIES: EUROPE Albania Andorra Armenia Austria Belarus Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy

Reader’s Guide

Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia (FYROM) Malta Moldova Monaco Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania San Marino Serbia and Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom COUNTRIES: PACIFIC Australia Fiji Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia Nauru New Zealand Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu GLACIOLOGY Antarctic Ice Sheets Drift Ice Ice Ages Little Ice Age Sea Ice Snowball Earth GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES Air Force, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of State, U.S.

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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Goddard Institute for Space Studies National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Science Foundation Navy, U.S. Oice of Naval Research United Nations World Health Organization World Meteorological Organization INSTITUTIONS STUDYING CLIMATE CHANGE Alaska Climate Research Center Alliance to Save Energy American Council for an Energy-Eicient Economy American Electric Power American Gas Association American Geophysical Union American Meteorological Society Antarctic Meteorology Research Center Applied Energy Services, Inc. Atmosphere, Climate and Environment Information Programme (UK) Atmospheric Research and Information Centre BP Canadian Association for Renewable Energies Cantor Fitzgerald EBS Center for Clean Air Policy Center for Energy Eiciency Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Center for International Environmental Law Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies Center for Science and Environment (India) Climate Action Network Climate Change Knowledge Network Climate Impacts LINK Project Climatic Research Unit Colorado Climate Center Cooperative Institute for Arctic Research Cornell University David Suzuki Foundation Department of Energy, U.S. Desert Research Institute Edison Electric Institute Environmental and Societal Impacts Group Environmental Defense

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Reader’s Guide

Environmental Development Action in the hird World Environmental Financial Products, LLC Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) European Commission FEEM (Italy) Florida State University Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development Friends of the Earth Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Atmospheric Research Program (GCRP) Global Environment Facility (GEF) Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (GISPRI) Greenpeace International Harvard University Heinz Center Idaho State Climate Services Indiana University Institute of Energy Economics (Argentina) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Council of Scientiic Unions (ICSU) International Energy Agency (IEA) International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) International Research Institute for Climate Prediction International Solar Energy Society (ISES) International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) Kyoto Mechanisms LDEO Climate Modeling Group Marshal Institute Midwestern Regional Climate Center National Academy of Sciences, U.S. National Association of Energy Service Companies (NAESCO) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Natsource Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) New Mexico Climate Center OECD Annex I Expert Group on the UNFCCC OECD Climate Change Documents Ohio State University Oregon Climate Service Oregon State University Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Penn State University Pew Center on Global Climate Change Renewable Energy Policy Project (REPP) Resources for the Future (RFF) Royal Dutch/Shell Group Royal Meteorological Society Scripps Institute of Oceanography Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI) Trexler and Associates, Inc. UN Conference on Trade and Development/Earth Council Institute: Carbon Market Program United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) University Corporation for Atmospheric Research University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Joint Oice for Science Support University of Arizona University of Birmingham, Meteorology and Climatology Department University of California University of Colorado University of Delaware, Center for Climatic Research University of Florida University of Hawaii, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Illinois, Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Kentucky, Agricultural Weather Center University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science University of Maine, Institute for Quaternary Studies University of Maryland, Department of Meteorology University of Miami University of Michigan University of New Hampshire University of Oklahoma, Weather Radar University of Reading, Department of Meteorology University of Utah, Department of Meteorology University of Washington, Atmospheric Science Department Utah Climate Center Weather World 2010 Project Western Regional Climate Center Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute World Bank World Business Council for Sustainable Development World Meteorological Organization

Reader’s Guide

World Resources Institute Worldwatch Institute World Wildlife Fund OCEANOGRAPHY Agulhas Current Antarctic Circumpolar Current Arctic Ocean Atlantic Ocean Benguela Current Current Ekman Layer Equatorial Undercurrent Gulf Stream Indian Ocean Kuroshio Current Meridional Overturning Circulation Mixed Layer Modeling of Ocean Circulation Paciic Ocean Peruvian Current Salinity Seawater, Composition of Somali Current Southern Ocean hermocline hermohaline Circulation Upwelling, Coastal Upwelling, Equatorial Western Boundary Currents Wind-Driven Circulation PALEOCLIMATES Cenozoic Era Cretaceous Era Earth’s Climate History Greenland Cores Holocene Era Jurassic Era Mesozoic Era Milankovitch Cycles Orbital Parameters, Eccentricity Orbital Parameters, Obliquity Orbital Parameters, Precession Paleozoic Era Pleistocene Era Pliocene Era Precambrian Era Quaternary Era Tertiary Climate Triassic Period

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Vostok Core Younger Dryas PEOPLE Arakawa, Akio Arrhenius, Svante August Bolin, Bert Broecker, Wallace Bryan, Kirk Bryson, Reid Budyko, Mikhail Chamberlin, homas C. Charney, Jule Gregory Croll, James Fourier, Joseph Gore, Albert, Jr. Hadley, George Hansen, James Keeling, Charles David Lindzen, Richard Lorenz, Edward Manabe, Syukuro Milankovitch, Milutin Munk, Walter Phillips, Norman Revelle, Roger Richardson, Lewis Fry Rossby, Carl-Gustav Schneider, Stephen H. Singer, S. Fred Smagorinsky, Joseph Stommel, Henry Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik Tyndall, John Von Neumann, John Walker, Gilbert Washington, Warren PROGRAMS AND CONVENTIONS CLIMAP Project Framework Convention on Climate Change International Geophysical Year (IGY) International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) Kyoto Conference Kyoto Protocol Montreal Protocol Toronto Conference Vienna Convention Villach Conference World Climate Research Program World Weather Watch

Encyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change

An Introduction S. George Philander Princeton University

IN ITS 2007 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a large,

international panel of scientists, all experts on the Earth’s climate, concluded that human activities, specifically those that cause an increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, have started affecting the Earth’s climate. The panel further predicted that far more significant climate changes are imminent. This report, and Al Gore’s documentary An Inconvenient Truth are persuading a rapidly increasing number of people that human activities can lead to possibly disastrous global climate changes. Those nonscientists are passionate about being wise and responsible stewards of the Earth, but at present they are handicapped because they take the words of the scientists on faith, and accept the reality of the threat of global warming without grasping the scientific reasons. This is most unfortunate, because our response to the threat of global warming is far more likely to be effective if it were motivated, not merely by the alarms scientists sound, but also by knowledge of how this very complex planet maintains the conditions that suit us so well. We need an awareness of how extremely fortunate we are to be the Earth’s inhabitants at this moment in its long and eventful history, and an understanding of how our current activities are putting us at risk. The purpose of this encyclopedia is to help the reader learn about the intricate processes that make ours the only planet known to be habitable. This encyclopedia covers, in addition to the science of global warming, its social and political aspects that are of central importance to the ethical dilemmas that global xvii

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warming poses: (1) How do we find a balance between regulations and freedom? (2) How do we find a balance between our responsibilities to future generations, and our obligations to the poor suffering today? The first dilemma, which generates strong emotions, has caused an unfortunate polarization of a complex, multifaceted issue. The extremists who find regulations abhorrent assert that there is no evidence of global warming. (They are sometimes referred to as deniers or skeptics.) Their opponents, Earth’s temperatures the believers, claim that global warming is underway, and is already causing environmental fluctuate in a relatively disasters. For believers, the second dilemma narrow range; the Earth, assumes global warming is already contributing to the suffering of the poor and therefore unlike its neighbors Venus is an urgent priority for everyone. They refuse to accept that, for the many people who are and Mars, is neither too so poor that they have nothing to lose, global warm nor too cold. warming is not an urgent issue. Dilemmas 1 and 2 call for compromises and hence for an objective assessment of the scientific results. The IPCC reports, which provide such an assessment, are explicit about uncertainties in the available results and hence favor neither the deniers nor the believers. The magnitudes of the uncertainties vary, depending on the time and region under consideration, and depending on whether we focus on temperature, the height of the ocean surface, rainfall or some other parameter. The following is a very brief synopsis—a bird’s eye view—of the discussion of these topics in the numerous entries of this encyclopedia. This information hopefully

TINY FROM AFAR: In our solar system, Earth, third planet from the sun at left, is dwarfed by giants Jupiter and Saturn. The order of the planets starts with Mercury, which is closest to the Sun, then Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and controversial Pluto.

provides a basis for the development of an effective response to the threat of global warming. Let us assume that we are aliens from another galaxy, in search of a habitable planet. On entering this particular solar system, our attention is at first drawn to the large, spectacular planets Jupiter and Saturn which are adorned with splendid rings and many moons. Earth, tiny by comparison, is a faint, blue dot from afar. Closer inspection shows that two of the Earth’s main features are chaotically swirling white clouds, and vast oceans that cover nearly 70 percent of the surface. Both are vitally important to the Earth’s most impressive feature of all: a great diversity of life forms that require water in liquid form. The abundance of liquid water means that, on the Earth, temperatures fluctuate in a relatively narrow range; the Earth, unlike its neighbors Venus and Mars, is neither too warm nor too cold. The Earth’s main source of energy is the sun, but this planet would be far too cold for most of its inhabitants were it not for its atmosphere, the thin veil of transparent gases that covers the globe. (If the Earth were an apple, its atmosphere would have the thickness of the peel.) This veil, by means of an intricate interplay between photons of light and molecules of air, serves as a shield that provides protection from dangerous ultraviolet rays in sunlight. The atmosphere serves as a parasol that reflects sunlight, thus keeping the planet cool; and as a blanket that traps heat from the Earth’s surface, thus keeping us warm. The blanket is the greenhouse effect, which depends not on the two gases nitrogen and oxygen that are most abundant, but on trace gases that account for only a tiny part of the atmosphere, .035 percent in the case of carbon dioxide. The most important greenhouse gas is water vapor, which is capable of engaging in escalating tit-for-tats (or positive feedbacks in engineering terms.) If atmospheric

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SATELLITE VIEW: A photograph from space of a setting sun shows how thin the atmosphere is. If the Earth were an apple, its atmosphere would have the thickness of the peel.

temperatures were to increase by a modest amount, then evaporation from the oceans will increase, thus increasing the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere. The result is an enhanced greenhouse effect that increases temperatures further, causing more evaporation, even higher temperatures, and so on. The consequence could be a runaway greenhouse effect—this is thought to be the reason why Venus has no water today. The Earth was spared this fate because The westerly jet streams are it is further from the sun than Venus, and is sufficiently cool for the air to become satuso intense that some bands rated with water vapor, in which case clouds of latitude are known as form. Clouds present the following question: Is their net effect cooling, because of the sunthe Roaring Forties and the light they reflect, or warming because of their greenhouse effect? The answer depends on Screaming Fifties. the type of cloud. Occasional glances at the sky reveal that there are many, many types. Uncertainties about future global warming stem mainly from uncertainties concerning the types of clouds that are likely in a warmer world. Simulating these fantastical, ephemeral objects is the biggest challenge for scientists trying to reproduce climate in computer models. If the atmosphere were static, we would be confined to a band of mid-latitudes, because the tropics would be too hot, the polar regions too cold. Fortunately, the atmosphere has winds that redistribute heat and also moisture, cooling off the lower

Introduction

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latitudes, while warming up higher latitudes. The circulation that effects this redistribution includes surface winds that are easterly (westward) in the tropics, where they converge onto the regions of maximum surface temperature at the equator. There the air rises into tall cumulus towers that provide plentiful rain. Aloft, the air flows poleward, cools, and sinks over the subtropical deserts. Some of the air continues further poleward to join the westerly jet streams that are so intense that some bands of latitude are known as the Roaring Forties and the Screaming Fifties. This atmospheric circulation, despite its chaotic aspects that we refer to as weather, creates distinctive climatic zones—jungles and deserts, prairies and savannahs—that permit enormous biodiversity. In the tropics, the atmospheric circulation, and hence the pattern of climatic zones, are strongly dependent on patterns of sea surface temperature that influence how much moisture the winds take (evaporate) from the ocean, and then deposit in rainbearing clouds. The most surprising feature in the sea surface temperature patterns is the presence of very cold surface waters right at the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean. (When he visited the Galapagos Islands, Charles Darwin commented on the curiously cold water at the equator where sunlight is most intense.) To explain this we need to explore the oceans, the thin film of water that covers much of the globe. The average depth of the ocean, 3.1 miles or 5 kilometers, is negligible in comparison with the radius of the Earth, which is more than 3,700 miles or 6,000 kilometers. Both the atmosphere and ocean are very thin films of fluid, one air, the other water. Measurements made on expeditions from Antarctica to Alaska show that the ocean

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PRECIPITATION MAP: There is a strong relationship between amount of precipitation and ocean temperature. Charles Darwin remarked on the surprisingly cold waters off the Galapagos Islands.

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EARTH LIGHTS FROM SPACE: This map by NASA shows a composite image of lights on Earth, but both the landforms and lights appear brighter than would be visible to an unaided observer in space. Researchers were able to produce this map of lights showing urban surface activity.

Introduction

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BRIGHT LIGHTS, BIG CITY: What becomes remarkably clear in this image is the energy usage in the United States, western Europe, and Japan, as compared to Africa and the rest of the world. The major national and regional contributors to greenhouse gas emissions are evident.

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is composed of a very shallow layer of warm water that floats on a much colder, deep layer. So shallow is the warm layer that, at the equator near the dateline where the surface waters are warmest, the average temperature of a vertical column of water is barely above freezing. An important consequence is that the winds blowing in the right direction can easily expose cold water to the surface by driving oceanic currents in the right direction. The westward trade winds do this along the equator. They drive the warm surface water westward, causing cold water to appear near the Galapagos Islands. Winds parallel to the western coasts of Africa and the Americas, north and south, similarly drive currents that bring cold water to the surface. Some of the oceanic currents are very slow and deep, others are swift and shallow and include the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio—narrow, rivers of warm water that flow poleward. These currents redistribute heat and chemicals, thus determining patterns of sea surface temperature and oceanic climatic zones that are evident in satellite photographs of the distribution of chlorophyll at the surface of the Earth. Chlorophyll is produced by phytoplankton, literally plants that wander. Those plants, and other life forms that depend on them, are most abundant near the ocean surface, because they need light that penetrates only tens of feet or meters below the ocean surface. When that living matter dies, it sinks and decomposes so that the cold, deep ocean is rich in nutrients. It follows that ideal conditions for biological productivity—an abundance of light and nutrients—exists where the deep water rises to the surface. These are known as the oceanic upwelling zones, where surface waters are cold, such as off the western coasts of the Americas and Africa. The absence of a layer of warm surface waters around Antarctica makes the Southern Ocean another highly productive zone. Note that the subtropical ocean basins are in effect oceanic deserts with very few plants, because there is practically no exchange between the warm surface waters and the cold water at depth. The plants on land and at sea, by means of photosynthesis, capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during their growing season, and return it when they die and

JULY AND JANUARY: True color composite satellite maps of the Earth’s surface in July (above) and January 2004 (at right) from NASA illustrate the significance of seasonal snowfall.

Introduction

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decay. This continual flow of carbon between the ocean, atmosphere, and biosphere (the assemblage of all life on Earth) causes variations in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Many people think of the composition of the atmosphere as fixed, in the way that water in a glass is composed of two parts hydrogen and one part oxygen. In reality the atmospheric composition changes continually because each constituent participates in a biogeochemical cycle. (The best known is the hydrological cycle, which is associated with continual changes in the atmospheric concentration of water vapor.) At present, we are interfering with the carbon cycle by burning fossil fuels, and thus emitting carbon into the atmosphere. The oceans and the plants absorb a large fraction, but much remains in the atmosphere so that the concentration there is rising rapidly. A thousand years ago, the The ocean, atmosphere, and biosphere form a complex interacting system capanorthern Atlantic was so ble of generating fluctuations on its own. warm that Greenland had a This is known as natural variability, in contrast to variability forced by daily large enough population for and seasonal changes in sunlight, or by human-induced changes in the composithe pope to send a bishop. tion of the atmosphere. Daily changes in the weather, the best-known examples of natural variability, are as natural as the swings of a pendulum and would be present even if there were no variations in sunlight. Another natural fluctuation, with a much longer timescale of years rather than days, is the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. From a strictly oceanic perspective, these phenomena are associated with changes in sea surface temperatures, in the currents, and so on, that are attributable to changes in the winds. Along the equator, those winds are intense during La Niña, weak during El Niño. Why do the winds change? From a meteorological perspective, the large

ALBEDO EFFECT: Snow-covered regions effectively cool the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space, and hence changes in the range of snow cover can serve to amplify climate changes.

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October 1988: La Niña

March 1998: El Niño

temperature contrast between the western and eastern equatorial Pacific during La Niña drives intense winds that weaken when the contrast weakens. This circular phenomenon—atmospheric changes are both the cause and consequence of oceanic changes—implies that El Niño and La Niña are consequences of interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. We know a great deal about daily changes in weather because we have ample opportunities to study those changes. Over the past few decades, we learned a fair amount about El Niño, because that phenomenon occurred several times during that period. The past centuries and millennia were also characterized by naturally occurring fluctuations, but information about those climate fluctuations is scant, because of the lack of instrumental records. A thousand years ago, the northern Atlantic was so warm that Greenland had a large population, sufficiently large for the Pope to send a bishop. That warm period was followed by the frigid Little Ice Age. Those changes were presumably aspects of natural variability, but as yet they are unexplained. Because we know very little about natural variability, it is not possible to determine whether a few unusually warm years, or a few intense hurricanes such as Katrina, or the unusually strong El Niño of 1997, indicate the onset of global warming. Scientists had to search carefully for distinctive patterns, for the “footprints” of global warming, before they could conclude in the 2007 IPCC report that humans activities are affecting the global climate.

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NATURAL FLUCTUATION: With a timescale of years rather than days, the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific Ocean governs weather patterns and storm activity.

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—deep water formation deep water formation—

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OCEAN CURRENTS: The warm surface currents (red) intertwine with the deep cold currents (blue), creating climate patterns across the Earth. (Robert Simons/NASA)

The composition of the atmosphere, which strongly influences climate, depends on biogeochemical cycles involving not only the ocean, atmosphere and biosphere, but also the solid Earth. Terra firma is anything but firm; its surface is composed of several slowly moving, nearly rigid plates, on some of which the continents float. This is the surface manifestation of motion deep Some 65 million years ago, in the interior of the Earth, where temperatures are very high because of the decay the Earth was so warm of radioactive material. Earthquakes are that there was no ice on the common along the plate boundaries, which feature tall mountains where the plates colplanet. Palm trees and lide, or deep trenches where one plate dives crocodiles flourished in (subducts) beneath another. In regions of subduction, volcanoes are common; that is polar regions. why the Pacific rim is known as a “ring of fire.” When they erupt, volcanoes emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That gas interacts with water vapor to form an acid that erodes rocks, causing the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Hence, the building of mountains—the creation of extensive rock surfaces—promotes the removal of carbon dioxide from

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TEMPERATURE MAP: The areas in dark red with the highest temperatures correlate to the Precipitation Map—regions with the highest precipitation are also the warmest.

the atmosphere. Continental drift therefore affects the atmospheric composition by bringing into play processes that increase, and others that decrease, the concentration of carbon dioxide. Volcanic eruptions contribute to the increase, the building mountains to the decrease. Continental drift affects climate in a more direct manner by changing the distribution of continents. At one time all the continents were together and formed a supercontinent, Pangea, with a northern part known as Laurasia, and a southern Gondwanaland that included the Antarctic continent. With the breakup that started around 250 million years ago, Africa and South America separated to form the Atlantic Ocean. India traveled northward until it collided with Asia, and started creating the Himalayas. For those interested in global warming, what happened after the demise of the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago is of special interest. At that time, the Earth was far warmer than it is today, so warm that there was no ice on the planet. Palm trees and crocodiles flourished in polar regions, in part because the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide was much higher than it is today. Subsequently, the continued drifting of the continents, accompanied by decreases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, contributed to the global cooling. (This period is known as the Cenozoic, the age of new animals, specifically mammals.) What caused the Ice Ages? Why did they start 3 million years ago? The answers involve slight changes in sunlight. Sunlight varies daily and seasonally because the Earth rotates on its tilted axis once a day, while orbiting the sun once a year. Additional variations over

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much longer periods of thousands of years are associated with slight oscilGlaciers, because they are lations of the tilt of the axis, which white, reflect sunlight. also precesses, while the orbit changes gradually, from a circle into an ellipse, This reflection deprives the and back to a circle. The moon and Earth of heat, lowers temseveral planets cause these Milankovitch cycles, which have been present peratures, and promotes the throughout the Earth’s history. The climate fluctuations induced by these growth of glaciers. sunlight cycles were modest up to 3 million years ago, but then started amplifying. That amplification required positive feedbacks that translated the slight variations in sunlight into Ice Ages. The feedbacks were brought into play by the drifting of the continents. A complex and poorly understood interplay between the slow, erratic drifting of continents, and the regular variations in sunlight, caused the Ice Ages to be absent during some periods, and prominent during others, such as the present. The global cooling associated with the drifting of the continents that started 60 million years ago inevitably led to the appearance of glaciers, first on Antarctica, then on northern continents around 3 million years ago. Glaciers, because they are white, reflect sunlight. This deprives the Earth of heat, lowers temperatures, and

HURRICANE PATHS: A plot of the intensity and paths of hurricanes and typhoons. How global warming will affect the development and strength of storms is a subject of debate and study.

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Introduction

POTENTIAL FLOODING: This is a topographic map designed to emphasize regions near sea level that could potentially be vulnerable to sea level rise, though over centuries rather than decades.

promotes the growth of glaciers. Hence, the appearance of continental glaciers was one of the feedbacks that amplified the response to Milankovitch variations in sunlight. Trapped in those glaciers are bubbles of air that tell us about past changes in the atmospheric composition, past variations in the atmospheric composition of carbon dioxide. As yet it is not known why the concentration varied, or to what degree the variations contributed to the temperature fluctuations. Solving the puzzle of the Ice Ages will be a major contribution to our ability to anticipate future climate changes, because the solution will tell us a great deal about the sensitivity of the Earth’s climate to changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. In the meanwhile, familiarity with the data can give us a valuable perspective on global warming by giving us a geological context for our activities over the past century. From a geological perspective, the present is a special moment

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in the history of our planet for at least two reasons. The first is that the Earth is currently in an era of high sensitivity to small disturbances. Starting approximately 3 million years ago, the Earth’s response to slight variations in sunlight, the Milankovitch cycles, have included enormous climate fluctuations associated with recurrent Ice Ages. Only some of the feedbacks that are involved have been identified. The second reason why the present is special is that we are currently enjoying the temperates of one of the brief interglacial periods that separate prolonged Ice Ages. The previous interglacial was more than 100,000 years ago but, at that time, we humans were few in numbers, and had very limited capabilities. We were ready when the current interglacial started, some 10,000 years ago, and proceeded to advance with astonishing rapidity, inventing agricultures, domesticating certain animals, developing cultures, and building cities. We developed so rapidly that we are now

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12

Climate Change Recorded in Ocean Sediments

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Polar Ocean Temperature Shift (˚C)

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HISTORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A compound graphic depicts Earth’s climate change across the millennia and centuries. Top: Global cooling over the past 60 million years. Middle: Recurrent Ice Ages over the past 600,000 years. Bottom: Rise in temperature and carbon dioxide over the past four centuries. The information in the top panel comes from cores drilled into the ocean floor, where sediments contain remains of primitive organisms that live near the ocean surface. The information in the middle panel comes from Antarctica, where the accumulated snowfall of hundreds of millennia created deep glaciers.

geologic agents, capable of interfering with the processes that make this a habitable planet. For more than a century, we have caused the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to grow exponentially. This, surely, is a time for circumspection and caution.

Maps and Plots Prepared by Robert A. Rohde University of California, Berkeley

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List of Contributors Adler, Ruth Ohio State University

Bader, Barbara Université Laval

Berg, Donald J. South Dakota State University

Akhtar, Rais Jawaharlal Nehru University

Bakshi, Bhavik R. Ohio State University

Berhe, Asmeret Asefaw University of California, Berkeley

Akter, Farhana King’s College, London

Ballabrera, Joaquim Institut de Ciències del Mar Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientíicas

Bevington, Douglas Loyd University of California, Santa Cruz

Ballamingie, Patricia Carleton University

Boersma, P. Dee University of Washington

Bardecki, Michal J. Ryerson University

Bonds, Constance M. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Allmon, Warren D. Paleontological Research Institute Andronova, Natasha University of Michigan Araujo, John U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Barnhill, John H. Independent Scholar

Auerbach, Karl University of Rochester

Beal, Lisa University of Cape Town

Auerbach, Andrea S. Eastern Research Group, Inc.

Beniston, Martin University of Geneva, Switzerland

Aufhammer, Maximilian University of California, Berkeley

Benson, Nsikak Covenant University

Backe, Andrew S. National Science Foundation

Bonds, Constance U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Borovnik, Maria Massey University Brönnimann, Stefan ETH Zurich, Switzerland Brown, Roger Western Illinois University Bruch, Carl Environmental Law Institute Byun, John Independent Scholar

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List of Contributors

Chaudhury, Moushumi University of Sussex

de Freitas, C R University of Auckland

Gabric, Al Griith University

Chew, Matthew K. Arizona State University

Delang, Claudio O Chinese University of Hong Kong

Gellers, Joshua Chad Columbia University

Choi, Jongnam Western Illinois University

de Ruitjter, Wilhelmus P.M. University of Cape Town

Ghezzehei, Teamrat A. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Choi, Jun-Ki Ohio State University

de Souza, Lester Independent Scholar

Giardina, Christian P. Institute of Paciic Islands Forestry USDA Forest Service

Choi, Woonsup University of Manitoba

Dillow, Robin K. Rotary International Archives

Chrystal, Abbey E. School of Earth Sciences Ohio State University

Dixon, P. Grady Department of Geosciences Mississippi State University

Coelho, Alfredo Manuel UMR MOISA SupAgro Montpellier, France

Dufy, Lawrence K. University of Alaska, Fairbanks Arctic Division, AAAS

Cofman, Jennifer Ellen James Madison University

Dufy, Philip B. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Coleman, Jill S. M. Ball State University Collins, Timothy Western Illinois University Connelly, Sandra Rochester Institute of Technology Corield, Justin Geelong Grammar School, Australia Corield, Robin S. Independent Scholar Coughlin, Steven S. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Crivella, Ellen J. Vermont Law School Crompton, Samuel Willard Independent Scholar

Dutt, Ashok K. University of Akron Edmunds, James hames Valley University Edwards, Richard Milton University of Wisconsin Colleges Ennis, Christopher J. University of Teesside Ennis, Harriet University of York Fang, Jiasong Iowa State University Finley-Brook, Mary University of Richmond

Crooker, Richard A. Kutztown University

Foltz, Gregory R. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Paciic Marine Environmental Laboratory

Cumo, Christopher Independent Scholar

Fry, Richard Wayne State University

Gray, Steven A. Rutgers University Greve, Wulf Independent Scholar Grover, Velma I. Natural Resource Consultant Gunter, Michael M. Rollins College Gutiérrez, María International Institute for Sustainable Development Hanna, Edward University of Sheield Hart, Rachelle Bringham Young University Hartmann, Ingrid Independent Scholar Herrera, Fernando University of California, San Diego Holst, Arthur Matthew Widener University Hope, Pandora Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Howe, David V. Rutgers University Hume, Douglas William University of Connecticut Hund, Andrew University of Alaska, Anchorage

List of Contributors Hurst, Kent University of Texas at Arlington

Lutjeharms, Johann R. E. Independent Scholar

Newman, Lenore Royal Roads University

Isherwood, William F. Chinese Academy of Sciences

Malilay, Josephine U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Nicholas, Sandra S. Environmental Law Institute

Jaggard, Lyn University of Birmingham Jordan, Rebecca C. Rutgers School of Environmental and Biological Sciences Kafarowski, Joanna University of Northern British Columbia Kahn, Richard University of North Dakota

Marchant, Rob Environment Department University of York McManus, Phil University of Sydney Mechoso, C.R. University of California, Los Angeles Meier, Ina Christin University of Göttingen

Kevorkian, Kriss A. Antioch University

Meier, Walter N. National Snow and Ice Data Center University of Colorado

Klever, Robert G. Independent Scholar

Merrett, Christopher D. Western Illinois University

Koslowsky, Robert Karl Independent Scholar

Michaud, Lyn Independent Scholar

Kte’pi, Bill Independent Scholar

Michon, Heather K. Independent Scholar

Laberge, Yves Université Laval

Miller, DeMond S. Rowan University

Law, Kevin Marshall University

Moni, Monir Hossain University of Dhaka

Lenschow, Donald H. National Center for Atmospheric Research

Mooney, Kieran Department of Geography, Planning and Environment Concordia University

Leopold, Estella B. University of Washington Lioubimtseva, Elena Grand Valley State University Lomine, Loykie L. University of Winchester Lucarini, Valerio Department of Physics University of Bologna

Moran, Tara University of Calgary Mudie, Peta Geological Survey of Canada Atlantic

Nilton, Renn