Unsupervised: Navigating and Influencing a World Controlled by Powerful New Technologies [1 ed.] 1394209908, 9781394209903

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Praise for Unsupervised

“Unsupervised is an inspiring work that serves as a clarion call for everyone to actively engage with the powerful new technologies rapidly shaping our world today.” —­Philippe van Caenegem Mentor and advisor; ex Salesforce MD Strategic Innovation “Unsupervised provides a detailed account of what is changing and how it manifests. Daniel and Stuart have done a masterful job.” —­Clara Durodié CEO of Cognitive Finance Group and author of Decoding AI in Financial Services “Unsupervised asks the questions; it leaves the answers to the reader in a tone that educates and informs without being patronizing. We have no more reasons to avoid taking a stance on the cognitive revolution around us.” —­Marta Piekarska-­Geater Director of DAO and Web3 Strategy, Consensys “Reading Unsupervised underlined for me just how fundamental technology-­instigated changes will be in every aspect of education, healthcare, business, the military, and government. We must all open our eyes and face these opportunities and challenges head-­on. A must-­read for everyone.” —­Laurence Geller Chancellor, University of West London; founder and CEO, Strategic Hotels and Resorts (BEE); Chairman, International Churchill Society “Daniel and Stuart have managed to create a seminal work on evolving technology that is also a cautionary tale about unintended consequences. This book is a must-­read for anyone who wants to be prepared for how technology—­much of which barely even exists today—­will impact their business and their life.” —­Richard Mack Chief Executive Officer, Mack Real Estate Group and Claros Mortgage Trust; co-­creator of the Wharton School’s Real Estate Disruptions Course “The authors cut through to people who might not usually read books like this, but know the time is now to do so. Really nicely written.” —­Stephen Khan Editor of The Conversation (50 million monthly readers globally)

“This is a book on how once again a handful of extremely powerful actors control the mainstream implications of technologies without any transparency, accountability, or fair use/allocation.” —­Amit Pradhan Founder, Silicon Valley Blockchain Society and Rainfall AI; Responsible Leader, BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt; and board member, Norwegian Refugee Council “Cutting through the clutter, this book has profound implications on the collective action to shape these technologies for our society, responsibly and inclusively.” —­Gokce Gizer Clover Founder, Mercurychange; cofounder, EdenBase; and previously creator of Extreme Tech Challenge (XTC) “Inspiring, provocative, thoughtful. Having a clear view of these different technologies in combination and the paths they can take, allows investors to deploy funds consciously and ensure we build the right future.” —­Carolina Casas Forga Cofounder, Sangha Capital “Finally a book for everyone that’s low on jargon and realistic about the challenges, but that also helps us start to figure out how to make the best of the incredible opportunity we face.” —­Eric Van der Kleij Cofounder, EdenBase; previously Head of Level39, CEO Tech City “Unsupervised is a personal revelation. This book will be instrumental in my journey, a must-­read for anyone looking to stay ahead of the curve.” —­Matt Cyrankiewicz Founder, Future Group “By highlighting the trade-offs we face, the authors inspire readers to make the most of the manifold opportunities and challenges before us. With its compelling narrative and empowering perspective, this book is an essential guide for navigating the transformative era we find ourselves in.” —Oskar Hartmann Founder Hartmann Holdings, LARIX and SIMILE funds and Unicorn Angels community

Unsupervised Navigating and Influencing a World Controlled by Powerful New Technologies

Daniel Doll-­Steinberg Stuart Leaf

Copyright © 2023 by Daniel Doll-­Steinberg and Stuart Leaf. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada and the United Kingdom. ISBNs: 9781394209903 (hardback), 9781394209927 (ePDF), 9781394209910 (ePub) No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-­copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-­ 8400, fax (978) 750-­4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-­6011, fax (201) 748-­6008, or online at www.wiley.com/go/ permission. Trademarks: WILEY and the Wiley logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and/or its affiliates, in the United States and other countries, and may not be used without written permission. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and authors have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read. Neither the publisher nor authors shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-­2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-­3993 or fax (317) 572-­4002. If you believe you’ve found a mistake in this book, please bring it to our attention by emailing our reader support team at [email protected] with the subject line “Possible Book Errata Submission.” Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic formats. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Control Number: 2023937388 Cover design: Wiley

For my very human Mum and Dad, Sarah, Nikki, Jamie, and Ben who taught me that experiences are more important than assets. Heaven forbid computers take these over too. I would like to thank the very many who said something interesting to me and made me stop and think. —Daniel I would like to dedicate my efforts in bringing this work to life, to my parents who both passed during this period. I want to thank my wife and two sons for their patience. I particularly want to thank the many key people around the world who shared their wisdom in many fields, brought up issues Daniel and I had not considered, challenged our thought processes when inconsistent or unclear, and urged us to deliver our messages in ways that are readily understood. —Stuart

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Contents

Forewordviii Prefacex Introductionxv Suggested Reading

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Part I

Important Technologies You Cannot Ignore

1

Chapter 1

Foundational Technologies

7

Chapter 2

Enabling Technology

43

Chapter 3

Consumer-­Facing Hardware Technologies

77

Chapter 4

Important Uses of Technologies You  Cannot Ignore

97

Part II

Chapter 5

The Impact and Implications on Humanity of Disruptive Technologies

137

Reinventing the Economy

141

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Chapter 6

Reinventing Work

171

Chapter 7

Reinventing Education

197

Chapter 8

Reinventing Information and Communication

207

Reinventing Control

227

Chapter 9

Chapter 10 Reinventing the Planet

247

Chapter 11 Reinventing Humans and Humanity

263

Chapter 12 Technology Reinventing Itself

279

Chapter 13 Key Influencers on Frontier Technologies

295

Part III

Final Thoughts

327

Chapter 14 Ethics and Policy

329

Chapter 15 Conclusion

339

Chapter 16 Final Word

351

About the Authors

355

Index

357 

Foreword

T

hroughout human history, “Promethean moments” have happened suddenly, but their impact would spread gradually. Today, technological innovation is increasing the frequency of these moments, which now happen suddenly with an impact that is increasingly sudden as well. Profound changes are now taking place: the constructs of centralized power that have dominated our economic and societal fabric since the “physical Industrial Revolution” are now dissolving into a spiderweb of bits, where productivity is being redefined. Increasingly, technology presents us with a new, expansive, and flexible fabric. Activity, productivity, and value are no longer tethered to capital assets; they now flow though wires and glass cables—­and also through the air in radio waves, with low friction to mass scale. Massive aggregation of, and seismic shifts in, human collective energy can now express itself in monumental waves at speeds not seen before. In some ways we are experiencing a “return to the past” in terms of the flexibility of life, away from the tethering of humans to machines, capital assets, and corporate structures that only recently came to dominate society. The tethering and geographic limitations of these structures previously limited reach and rate of change. Technology now can accelerate waves of collective human cognition; this is providing a universal fabric that can viii

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“super amplify” the breadth of reach, the frequency of seismic shifts in collective attitude, and the volatility of outcomes in everything from mass communication, productivity, and war and weaponry, to economic outcomes for people and nations. As such, technology in the hands of humankind is now akin to a massive double-­edged sword—­a light saber, in fact, in the hands of an untrained child. Wielding it can create instant and possibly irreversible impact, for good or for bad, faster than one can realize what has happened. Taking a step back to understand the dynamism of what’s happening—­ through both an historical lens and a forward-­ looking framework—­is important as it helps to put everything in perspective. It’s incumbent on us now both to understand the elevation of the impact that is happening with each subsequent generation of technology and to establish guardrails to help nudge everything in the positive direction. I’ve spent my working life delivering value across waves of technology, first in silicon, then computer and communication equipment, then networks, then applications in “cloud and mobile,” and now in AI, blockchains, and data science. My approach has been simple: leveraging technology to solve problems with a very simple formula: 1) lower friction to a solution, 2) make the solution massively replicable, and 3) make it deeply scalable. That simple formula brought immense good to this world at a critical time as we all saw with solutions like Zoom Video (I was the company’s first backer to commit funding) in a time of worldwide crisis. Daniel and Stuart’s book is a great framework to look at the underlying components of what’s happening and why, to examine why it’s critically important to have a handle on its power to drive change—­and to steer it toward positive promise. —­Bill Tai Venture capitalist and athlete; creator of the Extreme Tech Challenge; Chair of ACTAI Global; seed / angel investor in Zoom, Canva, Dapper Labs and many more

Preface

“Hell is truth seen too late.” —­Thomas Hobbes

T

echnology is advancing at an exponential rate; it is already dramatically affecting our lives. Yet almost all of us remain unaware of its extent. Unless thoughtful and impactful steps are taken now, this evolution will continue to accelerate at a pace truly beyond current comprehension and, scarily, virtually unsupervised. The consequences, both intended and unintended, are existential in their level of importance, so it is vital we work together to help forge the future of humanity, not leaving technology and those who control it to forge us. And time is running out. Who knows, this may be one of the last books ever written exclusively without generative artificial intelligence. To best understand the context of the issues ahead of us, Part I describes many of the disruptive frontier technologies currently on the market, to provide readers with a broad-­based understanding of how they work and why they are potentially so significant. Part II explores how these frontier technologies are now positioned to change almost everything we do, even who we are; and includes profiles of the most important global players, surprisingly few in number, who dominate the current, and quite possibly the future landscape of technology. Finally, Part III x

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discusses our thoughts on the inevitable dominance of frontier technologies and how we can conscientiously navigate this new tech-­driven world. With so much happening almost simultaneously, writing this book has often felt like inscribing a message in the sand with the tide coming in. And the pace is picking up, with some frontier technology advance making new waves every week. With that in mind, for this book, we concentrate on issues that are not simply meaningful but truly compelling and likely to have a direct influence on our future. Caveat lector—­the rate of change is so rapid that continuing to keep up will require considerable ongoing effort on all our parts. Whenever possible, we have also attempted not to impose our opinions. This revolution will impact everybody, and yet it is being orchestrated by very few. We do not merely want to add our names to the few but rather encourage discussion and simply be part of the many.

Tracking the Exponential Throughout time, the human brain evolved to enable the tracking of a single animal moving or accelerating at a linear rate. We are not designed to track one animal in a herd all moving randomly, especially when each one is accelerating exponentially. That is what is happening in technology right now. We are experiencing a seismic change in modern humanity, and most of us are not even aware. And to massively complicate matters, a combination of things is happening all at once: • Computational speed continues to accelerate dramatically, powering widespread innovation. Many new technologies

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are becoming omnipresent, commercialized, and often misused. • Various powerful technologies are becoming directly accessible to and usable by the general public, no longer requiring domain experts or even programmers to develop them (general purpose). We describe these as frontier technologies. • There is a growing dependence on technology in every sector, and consumers are becoming addicted—­often by design. • Individuals around the world are building formidable technologies unsupervised, without any real oversight. • Some of these technologies are able to completely replace targeted human functions, at lightning speeds, with no need to be paid or rest. • At the same time, after decades of coming together, the world is becoming more divided. Who controls key technologies is a factor not to be ignored. • Over the past two decades, the amount of money invested by institutions, individuals, venture capitalists, big technology companies, and governments in new technology products, services, and companies has been growing at an insane rate. While this might slow in a down-­market cycle, the aggregate power, disruption, and value of these technologies will not. • People have started to realize the asymmetric advantage of these technologies and are building them fast (mostly for their own benefit and/or power). These technologies represent both significant benefits and challenges to humanity. Over the past 20 years, with COVID-­19 as an incredible accelerant, they have become an indispensable

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part of our lives. Going forward, they will completely change our world. It is up to us to determine how. Over the period of human evolution, 99 percent of humans have lived with barely enough to sustain themselves and enjoyed very few basic rights. In many parts of the world, the past century has witnessed an unprecedented “democratization” (although massive disparities remain). Technology can either further this positive trend or lead to a dangerous consolidation of power. Do our leaders understand the issues, and can they handle them? To make sure, it is vital we all engage in the discussion, striving to maintain the rights we have fought so hard to earn. As these technologies replace aspects of what we do, will we start to lose these rights? No matter how small our individual actions, the aggregate effect can be enormous—­a “swarm effect.”

A World Rebooting Over the course of history, a small number of “innovations” have had a massively disproportionate impact on the course and rate of change of human evolution: • Harnessing fire • The wheel • The astrolabe (then compass) for navigation • Asymmetric weaponry (e.g., longbow, gunpowder, atom bomb) • The printing press • Harnessing energy (hydro, steam, electricity) • The transistor, silicon chip, the Internet, the smartphone, and social media

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The final items have particularly redefined the future and underpinned the mastery by homo sapiens over the rest of life on Earth. Yet they all pale in comparison to what humanity is on the very verge of experiencing. To say we are undergoing an evolution of existing technologies that had their roots a half century ago vastly understates the exponential nature and magnitude of the changes. It is not simply the continuation of the Industrial Revolution, rather a Cognitive Revolution in information and computation—­a veritable explosion of artificial intelligence and frontier technologies. In fact, this switch from the end of the age of the Industrial Revolution to the start of the age of the Cognitive Revolution could be seen as a third Promethean moment in the use of knowledge—­the first being the printing press and the second the Industrial Revolution. The difference this time is the unprecedented speed at which the changes are occurring. And this pace will continue to accelerate. The new Cognitive Revolution, and its many associated evolving technologies, is a vast topic. Although much has been written, there remains a remarkable lack of understanding both of the technologies themselves and of the practical and social implications they create. Simply ignoring these technologies is dangerous. Had we been more aware 20 years ago of the consequences of social media and other new technologies, would we have so casually followed this path? Awareness and action are vital.

Introduction

“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” —­Sun Tzu

Where the World Is Now At the start of this project in late 2020, we believed that by 2025, the world would start to “reboot” due to a range of disruptive frontier technologies. It is only 2023, and the process is already underway on many fronts. These include the following: • The rapid evolution of AI, including the public launch of ChatGPT from OpenAI—­a technology few had heard of two years ago when it could not even execute simple mathematical equations for us—­that could be accessed and used by millions whatever their technical level, simply through a command prompt becoming truly general purpose. It can now independently conduct research and write papers at graduate-student levels. Each new release promises to be many times more sophisticated. • An acceleration in funding and real progress in quantum computing. xv

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• The ability for computers to create art—­so good it has been banned on certain marketing platforms. • AI computer code generators starting to match many of the best developers in the world. GitHub Copilot can create usable computer code so impressive, Andrej Karpathy, the previous director of AI and autopilot vision at Tesla, tweeted that he uses it to write about 80 percent of his code. • A new system called VALL-E was announced that can use a mere 3-second sample to accurately simulate anyone’s voice. And combined, all of these lead toward a concentration of power not seen since the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution started in the United Kingdom in the late 1700s with Thomas Newcomen’s prototype of the first modern steam engine. By the 1830s, it led to mechanization and the modern factory systems of Europe and the United States and started to replace manual workers. The Industrial Revolution effectively and rapidly replicated and then bettered human beings’ physical capabilities starting in manufacturing and farming and led to more than 200 years of astounding human achievement. It has not, however, been without massive dislocation on every front. In the early 1800s, 90 percent of the U.S. population lived on farms; it is now around 1 percent.1 Humanity has adapted. And just as the developed world has settled in and the developing world is looking to follow, the rules have changed, and there is nothing gradual about it. The increase in computational power and explosion of new technologies is often referred to as the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), but this term greatly understates its seismic impact. It is forcing, at breathtaking pace, an entire shift in paradigm. Our 1 Beth Waterhouse, “PBS Online: Death of the Dream,” PBS (Public Broadcasting Service), accessed April 5, 2023, www.pbs.org/ktca/farmhouses/sustainable_future.html.

Introduction

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cognitive abilities are being copied, matched, and replaced by technologies—­ the capabilities of which grow exponentially, while our own increase only linearly, if at all. Today, we are actually in the early stages of the Cognitive Revolution. Entrepreneurs, Big Tech, and governments are spending billions a year, racing to replace what humans have done for millennia, and we are now integrating these technologies into every aspect of our lives and world. As frontier technologies become increasingly general purpose (i.e., not requiring domain experts to create them), more and more people will be able to deliver and deploy them, making them virtually unstoppable. This has enormous upside potential, but also creates considerable challenges. As during every previous leap forward, there will be numerous externalities and unintended consequences. Over time, technologies will increasingly simulate the world and the human brain more accurately, allowing them to fully execute human processes and activities. Over the past five decades, every 18 months to 2 years, the power of these technologies has doubled. This could slow, but the odds are much stronger that it will accelerate, perhaps at unimaginable rates. Then there is, of course, the added possibility these technologies become sentient, in which case everything changes—­an event referred to as the Singularity. The Cognitive Revolution has already seen technologies take over human roles in agriculture, industry, and even postindustrial domains. This has delivered and will continue to generate huge benefits. But who will gain, and who will lose? Much of this book focuses on technology and data, but understanding the relative impact on capital and labor is also important. There are two specific lenses: • Productivity and disruption • Economic and innovation cycles

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By overlaying these two, we can begin to understand the drivers of why the world is entering a period of such enormous and significant change. Before embarking on this journey, we should underline that the technologies we discuss are almost all designed by people who strive to achieve “technology for good.” And there is little doubt the past couple of decades have seen some of the greatest improvements in human living standards in recorded history, by almost every metric—­ lifespan, healthcare, child mortality, decreased famine, among untold others. Also, after years of ecological neglect since the Industrial Revolution, we have begun to take serious steps toward reversing the damage. Technology is clearly one of the primary drivers behind sustainability and continues to offer powerful solutions in most areas of our lives. The concerns aired in this book address the very important issue that technology is neither inherently good nor bad; it depends completely on how it is used and by whom. In the wrong hands, much damage can be done. We must all pay attention.

2030: A New Future “When it rains, look for rainbows. When it’s dark, look for stars.” —­Oscar Wilde

By 2030 the AI component alone of new frontier technologies could deliver an almost $16 trillion contribution to the global economy and replace up to 30 percent of current total hours worked, hugely impacting as many as one billion people.2 Such a market value is almost as large as the United States’ economy today, and it is growing much faster. 2 Anand S. Rao and Gerard Verweij, “PWC’s Global Artificial Intelligence Study: Sizing the Prize,” PwC, 2017, www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/analytics/assets/pwc-ai-analysis-sizing-the-prize-report.pdf.

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To put these numbers in perspective, the COVID-19 global lockdowns of 2020 were estimated to have temporarily cost the global economy 4 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), or around $4.6 trillion,3 and furloughed 400  million jobs. Yet merely converting to driverless transportation could replace as much as 8 to 10 percent of global jobs.4 New frontier technologies are starting to replicate our cognitive abilities and are quickly becoming general purpose, with the potential to boost productivity in every industry—­and fast. Two years ago, OpenAI’s Generative Pre-trained Transformer version 3 (GPT-3) had just launched, and our tests showed that while it was an amazing technical achievement, it was rather basic. Today, it writes chapters like this one—­and soon will probably do so much better than we can. Founded in 2015, OpenAI made ChatGPT public in November 2022, and it immediately became a major focus of attention because it forced leaders in every sector (and users around the world) to focus on how much technologies like this will impact so much of our lives. In fact, some in the education sector have already called for it to be banned. The Italian government even instituted a ban (now reversed) on ChatGPT over concerns it had processed and used Italian data, citing the EU’s General Data Protection Regulations. Even Elon Musk, a cofounder of ChatGPT, along with more than 1,000 other signatories, including AI professors and researchers at DeepMind, signed a letter calling for a 6-month pause on training systems more powerful than GPT-4. But it’s too late. This is a battle among the new oligarchs. Each new version released biannually has been exponentially more powerful (particularly when used in conjunction 3 “Topic: Coronavirus: Impact on the Global Economy,” Statista (Statista Research Department, January 17, 2023), www.statista.com/topics/6139/covid-19-impact-on-the-global-economy/#topicOverview. 4 Vicky McKeever, “The Coronavirus Is Expected to Have Cost 400 Million Jobs in the Second Quarter, UN Labor Agency Estimates,” CNBC, June 30, 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/coronavirus-expected-to-cost400-million-jobs-in-the-second-quarter.html.

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with other evolving frontier technologies that are now being rapidly developed to augment it). At this rate, by 2030 it will be on version 7 and most likely thousands, or even millions, of times more powerful. Licensed by Microsoft, it is becoming clear the technology behind ChatGPT (and others currently in development) is already at a point that industries will be forced to adopt them or languish. Even the current version is truly transformative—­both empowering and potentially devastating. Most people think the next generation of technologies will be limited to AI like ChatGPT; many transformative applications, however, have already hit the mainstream. LEGO’s Mindstorm range, which successfully abstracts and simplifies the complexities of building machines, has long enabled teens to quickly create relatively complex robotics with a combination of hardware and software elements that are easy to assemble and customize. Innovative LEGO creations have included ATMs, vending machines, guitar and piano players, and even T-shirt folders, knitting machines, and mini LEGO car-making assembly lines. Even though so much of our life has already been changed by technology, most people dramatically underestimate the full impact on the global economy. This stems from three key concepts: • Tesler’s Theorem. AI is whatever hasn’t been done yet. • Amara’s Law. We overestimate technology in the short term but underestimate it in the long term. • Metcalfe’s Law. As any network grows linearly in size and data, it becomes exponentially more powerful. That said, it won’t be long before we are using self-driving cars, holding smartphones that read our minds, and engaging the world through augmented reality (AR)–enabled glasses (or even smart contact lenses with AI and AR built-in) and/or holograms.

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And as with ChatGPT, almost none of us will be aware until it bursts onto the scene. And almost right away they will all seem so normal to some and threatening to others. The number of applications is unfathomable and, on the positive side, are allowing us to deal with apparently intractable problems such as global warming. While many negative outcomes are possible, there is much to be optimistic about as well. Virtually the entire world experienced the power of these new technologies during COVID-19. The relative ease with which people in many countries could remain at home, work, study, get their provisions, etc., mitigated complete financial disasters at the time. Overall, humanity benefited from the Industrial and PostIndustrial Revolutions, many moving from hard manual labor in the fields to marginally better jobs in factories and gradually into safer and/or more cerebral ones. The number of horses, however, declined almost 80 percent—­from 20  million in 1900 to 4.5  million in 1959—­as machines replaced most of their functions. They could not adapt and became victims of the unstoppable power of productivity gains. The Cognitive Revolution is real, is happening now, and is happening without direction. It is being led by a small group of people—­those with the greatest ability to identify opportunities and pursue their self-interest— and the technologies they are building are made to their vision, largely unsupervised, and predominantly for their own gain. We need many constituents—­lawmakers, frontier technology builders, educators, investors, and users, etc.—­to step forward and be vocal. We cannot overemphasize the need for active and public debate. Since there is no single optimal pathway, much future leadership will come from unexpected sources, and, unfortunately, many outcomes will result simply from trial and error. However, if we want to avoid real disasters, we cannot afford to

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“ostrich” and bury our heads in the sand. Otherwise, we could become the next horse. Frontier technologies will, like all technologies, mirror their founders and, until sentient, will operate on the principles by which they have been created. Whoever controls the technology controls our future. Given the vast implications, we all deserve a say; we all need to take ownership.

1998: So Last Century “We gain our first measure of intelligence when we first admit our own ignorance.” —­Socrates

Every second, Google processes more than 100,000 search ­queries. Without technology, all Google employees combined probably couldn’t manage this task in a decade. Behind every response, immensely powerful computers drive the process, constantly becoming more efficient by learning about us, monitoring our every move, and serving up bespoke responses. Each new piece of information helps enhance its efficiency. The goal is gradually to develop omniscience. Computers have already begun to evolve their own cognitive ability and, in some instances, already do it better than we can. The programmers at Google merely code a framework that allows computers to catalog a huge universe of online data, together with the rules to capture both our detailed personal information and our every online move, and the search engines deliver results that iteratively become better and better. On the positive side, the search answers (and the products shown to us) generally better reflect our needs. The downside—­computers and their handlers literally decide what each of us see. On an individual basis, technology is already the arbiter of what we should know or be allowed to know.

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While you read the previous paragraphs, Google processed around three-and-a-half million searches, with each one learning a bit more about how to better increase Google’s search superiority. Your computer and your phone are already not only deciding what you see and how you see it, but also working to ensure there are many things you just cannot do without. Google was founded in 1998. So within just 25 years, the entire way we learn has changed. At that time, Jeff Bezos’ Amazon, a public company for just a year, was valued at a mere $10 billion; Mark Zuckerberg was just 13 and celebrating his bar mitzvah; Steve Jobs had just returned to Apple; there was no meaningful online e-commerce, nor Internet searching, and no smartphones; shoppers went out to shop, and computers and the huge systems behind them knew next to nothing about any of us as individuals. Today, we have multiple new frontier technologies. As well as AI, this new generation of general purpose technologies includes additive manufacturing (3D and 4D printing), augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR), blockchain, always-on communications (such as 5G and soon 6G), cryptocurrency and tokenization, decentralization, Internet of Things (IoT), and robotics and automation. All verge on being “supercharged” with quantum computing. The rate of adoption has been increasing across almost every discipline. Within a few years, quantum computing might be able to break RSA encryption, the public-key cryptosystem that is widely used for securing all our data. Without countermeasures, this will render the entire systems driving our economies vulnerable. Quantum will be able to retrospectively decrypt every bit of information ever securely stored and access every secure device, in every network, no matter how remote, around the world. It will probably take a decade to adapt encryption for quantum computing; even if we start now, it is a race against time. Various countries, most visibly China, are believed to be amassing huge warehouses of secure data on everyone and everything

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globally. These cannot yet be decrypted, but as soon as quantum computing solutions become available, they will become transparent. Our data cannot be taken back. Think of a stranger owning a “copy” of your safe containing all your private details, just waiting for the key to be delivered. This type of power should keep us all awake at night. Data security is merely the tip of the iceberg. Technology now allows Big Tech and governments to know (and soon to anticipate) almost all our moves. Our phones silently allowed track and trace to “ping” us when we came close to someone suspected of having COVID-19; our appliances can monitor our speech and actions; government and nongovernment actors are positioned to manipulate our elections. What is clear, for better or worse, is we are now dependent on many technologies and incapable of operating without them. These technologies will soon grow to include domains such as centrally controlled digital currencies, vehicles, medical and financial data, enhanced movement tracking, vast realms of behavioral science, and countless others. Every one of these can have enormous individual and collective benefits. But they can also be the source of enormous harm. Imagine any bad actor (or even a government) with this level of power—­able to use all our data to identify, manipulate, stop/redirect a vehicle, or even eliminate assets, all at the push of a button. None of this is science fiction. As you read this, all these technologies are in development or already deployed to some extent. What is next? By 2040, frontier technologies are likely to be thousands of times more powerful than today. And there are many innovators out there already trying hard to create what could become a “species” that is, by design, superior to us. For instance, in 2019 alone, Amazon spent $36 billion on research and development (R&D) to develop human replacement technologies, from robots to smart home assistants. This investment is greater than the GDPs of 34 countries.

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The world as we know it—­public and private—­has long followed a linear path that grows incrementally and relatively manageably and stably; frontier technologies, however, are accelerating exponentially. The battle ahead is between our linear trajectory and technology’s exponential one.

Humans 2.0 “Talent hits a target no one else can hit. Genius hits a target no one else can see.” —Schopenhauer

While much attention over the past few decades has focused on robots replacing human labor, now that frontier technologies are reaching the general purpose stage, there is a distinct shift toward computers replacing cognitive jobs rather than physical ones. COVID-19 accelerated the movement toward working from home; ironically, if you can work from home, you become more digitally replaceable than if you are in a job that requires direct physical and/or human interaction. Despite the Industrial Revolution targeting manual work, the physical roles that remain are often more robot-immune, requiring dexterity, creativity, and empathy, or are more entangled in the human way of thinking. For the moment, robot creators and developers are also finding it hard to replicate many of the remaining physical skills. In contrast, computers relentlessly improve their abilities to deliver on cognitive tasks, as this is a new domain for them. They can now read and write contracts, trade financial services, manage your accounts, answer telephone calls, organize your day, and do many human tasks. And, as many of these human roles are already performed remotely, swapping them out with computers can be staged and seamless. When was the last time you visited a travel agent? Which professions are next? Much of what attorneys,

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accountants, bankers, insurance agents, and bureaucracies in general do is repetitive and codifiable. And, as Wright’s Law captures, technologies get cheaper with scale. Humans do not.

Devices “He wears a mask, and his face grows to fit it.” —George Orwell

Twenty years ago, mobile phones were slow and cumbersome, used only for calls and texting. Today they are powerful computers as well as working and entertainment devices that are seemingly always in hand. We are not only addicted to them but actually dependent on them. And their functionality expands daily. We check our smartphones right before bed, when we wake up, and we carry them all day, almost as an extension of ourselves. They are indispensable, having become our core interface with the world, combining the physical with the digital. Creators seamlessly and constantly add new features, making obsolete so many products we have grown used to—­radios, music players, maps, etc.—­dematerializing our world. And soon, they will not need to be handheld, or perhaps even optional—­we will access them through our glasses, contact lenses, or even implants. They can and will be permanently “on,” constantly assisting us, while at the same time continuously assessing us as well. As frontier technologies become more general purpose, new products can be created by people who are not experts in the field, and eventually by virtually anybody. In fact, soon, frontier technologies will even be able to independently build products and eventually re-create themselves. Many newly deployed technologies have been developed (or acquired) by a small number of very large companies, mostly founded by brainy, well-intentioned young entrepreneurs, without meaningful regulatory control. Now, there are also millions of new entrepreneurs around the

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world experimenting with even more powerful technologies—­ once again virtually without oversight. The first group we know something about; the second we do not. The past quarter of a century has been the Wild West. Who can we entrust to be the new sheriff in town? A snapshot of where the world is now should encourage readers to think about the future—­harnessing the benefits of technology, while at the same time becoming more cognizant of the underlying dangers. None of us is too small to have our voice heard. As the Dalai Lama neatly summed up, “If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito.”

People Going Binary—­Computers Going Quantum “Being wrong might hurt you a bit, but being slow will kill you.” —­Jeff Bezos

While innovators are building a new and potentially superior intelligence in their own image, who is looking out for our wellbeing? Unfortunately, even those leaders and policymakers who believe they have our best interests in mind rarely have the knowledge, power, and capacity to deliver. And, from a practical basis, most are required to reach a consensus; the time this takes almost guarantees not only that they miss the target, but that the target they are aiming at is no longer even there. In most democracies, the stark reality is as follows: • Those who make the decisions need to be re-elected—­ meaning popularity is frequently more important than action. • As elected officials are often not around to see the results of their inaction (or actions), they need not fear being held accountable.

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Our leaders’ seeming inability (or unwillingness) to look out for us is partially our own fault. The general public increasingly demands binary, yes/no answers, and instant results. Our governments (and media) look to deliver just that. Yet most issues are immensely complex and nuanced and often extend over timeframes that exceed their times in office. Yet by abdicating their responsibility to engage in what is really going on, our leaders are simply allowing technologies and their creators to become increasingly powerful and appear more than willing to just wait and see where the chips fall. Humans’ historical ability to be flexible in processes and use diverse information sources is narrowing, becoming more unequivocal and dogmatic. In some ways, this can be linked to computerization—­when we enter a search or program, we expect a result. And whereas Google provides a list of suggestions, ­ChatGPT now gives us a single answer. While humans tend to be analog in our thinking and have historically incorporated different viewpoints and accepted multiple outcomes, computers have been only digital—­designed only to recognize and process ones and zeros. It is indeed ironic, as humans appear to move toward binary thinking, computers, with quantum methods and their ability to handle and accept multiple states simultaneously, may be moving toward the analog. One result of our move from analog to binary thinking is the clear polarization we are seeing in many countries around the world. If we consider some of the more complex and challenging subjects of today—­climate change, gender and race equality, the impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic, etc.—­we demand more and more definitive answers to questions that cannot be answered definitively without a blithe willingness to ignore evidence that does not fit the outcomes we want. This results in governments, the media, and other information sources deciding

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that unambiguous mistruths are better and more valued than the actual truth, which is often more nuanced and problematic. This hinders much discourse needed to deliver real answers to the real problems. This trend must be challenged. The first step is to acknowledge that data is neither uniquely the solution nor the problem; it is a complicated combination of both. While much of our discussion concerns events that may be 10, 20, or even 50 years away, the first steps toward this future are being taken now. And the world ahead of us will depend on what we do today. Like a skyscraper, its strength is based on its foundations, which will never be seen after construction. It is we who are present at the foundation stage for many technologies, but it will be future generations who most enjoy or suffer from their output. Human nature sees most of us leaving decisions until the last minute, even though the closer we get to the point of no return, the greater the cost, complexity, and pressure. This is particularly true with frontier technologies, where the potential set of outcomes becomes exponentially more difficult to anticipate and manage over time. We all have a part to play. Let’s simply start by monitoring and limiting what information we hand over to others to potentially exploit. Let’s more actively challenge the information we are presented by “echo chamber” news and information services, powered by these technologies. Let’s think through (and even act on) exactly who we expect to make these decisions on our behalf, even at the most local level. And make a concerted effort to learn more about these technologies. The more we know, the more diversity of thought we can bring to creating, challenging, and using them.

Suggested Reading

I

n this book, we have provided explanations of a number of key frontier technologies. Our goal was to provide a baseline from which readers could then better follow many of the issues and problems we discuss. In a rapidly changing world, this type of effort is a moving target. Many of the technologies we cover are evolving at an accelerating rate. There is simply not the space to cover many other technologies that might be extraordinarily important as well. Therefore, rather than providing a static bibliography, we think it is more useful to create a living document of articles and pieces you might like to read. We have created the web page www.edenbase.com/unsupervised for those documents, which we will update over time.

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PART

I

Important Technologies You Cannot Ignore

“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do.” —­Mark Twain

T

he Cognitive Revolution is happening. It is a period of exploration as bold and daring as the eras of great explorers in the past. It is being propelled by the rapidly accelerating and iterative cycle of human thought and invention. Humanity conceptualizes, builds, and uses, which leads to the next round of conceptualization, building, and use, and on and on and on. . . . The difference today is that much of the technology being created has the capability itself of continuing to propel the cycle independently—­ with or without direct human intervention. These technologies have evolved on the back of silicon chips and computer power, doubling every two years (an exponential 1

2

Important Technologies You Cannot Ignore

increase). Yet as new materials and applications become fully integrated, these exponential increases will actually seem small. At the same time, our own cognitive ability is increasing linearly, if at all. The clear implication is the potential for computers to rapidly reach or even surpass many human capabilities, certainly on a skill-­by-­skill basis, as machines did vis-­à-­vis our physical abilities during the Industrial Revolution. Perhaps the hardest thing to fully comprehend and internalize today is that we are already beyond the period of mere imagination—­ vast numbers of practical applications already influence and, in some cases, dominate our daily lives. The technologies behind these changes are immensely varied and it would require an encyclopedic tome to encompass them all. The following, however, are the key building blocks to an untold number of far-­reaching applications. And these technologies are built on huge data sets that existing and future technologies are capturing and will exploit: • Collection and storage. As the amount of available data on virtually any topic is so enormous, only computers can now capture and store it all. And, once captured and stored, even if used properly today, data can be misused tomorrow, as data does not die. For example, massive amounts of information were collected, both transparently and otherwise, to minimize the dangers surrounding both 9/11 and COVID-­19. Although some of this has certainly been helpful, as the immediate crises waned, vast amounts of data remain, much of which was previously assumed to be private—­even sacrosanct. How will that data be used? How is it being used now? And which entities around the world have encrypted versions and are just waiting for the key? Unfortunately, ex ante, there is no way of predicting what becomes of all this sensitive information and what intrusions might result.

Important Technologies You Cannot Ignore

3

Yet government and corporate collection of data is only a fraction of the total amount being “created.” Much (possibly most) of all accessible personal and professional information has been offered up voluntarily by individuals and organizations. It began with text, then photos and video, and now genetic information to trace ancestry. What next? • Personal communications and daily online activity. Originally through an extensive use of emails and texts, then through a love affair (perhaps addiction) with emerging social media (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, etc.), and now through an endless array of ubiquitous applications (Siri, Alexa, Google, Amazon, etc.), an unimaginably vast trove of information is being generated that can be used in untold applications going forward. Most of those responsible for publicly (or privately) posting information, using search engines, or engaging in online transactions, have little sensitivity or even interest in how useful this data might be to others in the future and for what purposes it may be used. In the educational and professional world, technology has allowed for much simpler creation and sharing of information. The reasons are generally benign, but the rate of growth has been astounding. Many organizations, long before the pandemic, saw great value in group communication. COVID-­19’s evolution of work from home (WFH) massively accelerated this process, forcing corporations and individuals to find ways of being in effective contact and finding ways of managing processes and developing solutions in ways many had not fully explored before. Without a doubt, this has created vast amounts of recorded data that would not have existed if traditional communications through regular in-­person meetings, classroom interactions, chats by the coffee machine, beers after work, etc., had not been (temporarily?) abandoned.

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Important Technologies You Cannot Ignore

And, while the amount of available data has already mushroomed, the powerful techniques of collecting even more and storing it have grown at an even greater rate. • Management and use. Up until this point, humans have been the primary actor in this phase. Either we have manipulated and used the data ourselves or created algorithms to do so. We are, however, on the verge of a major shift of process/power, to where computers become able to manage data themselves and, initially through “machine learning,” take over some of the decisions on when and how the data is used (without any direct human intervention). Is this good or bad? We are bombarded with data. State and nonstate actors use arrays of “bots” to overwhelm us with contradictory and even fake data. Governments have entire divisions to use technology to collect and manipulate data to affect the behavior of both citizens and foreign nationals. The use of unsubstantiated or “carefully selected” data by questionable or self-­anointed experts results in bad/biased analyses that clearly end in suboptimal actions and results. Would a more systematized approach run by computers with built-­ in checks and balances be a potentially better solution? In concept, perhaps, but circular logic brings us back to our current reality that behind every computer program is “someone” who needs to write the code or create the protocols to allow the system to generate future iterations. Yet the effective anonymity of these “someones” is astonishing, given the effective power they wield. Our goal with this book is not to be an encyclopedic resource on innovative and disruptive technologies, which is impossible, as they are moving so fast. Rather, we aim to shine a light on the development and application of technologies you have probably

Important Technologies You Cannot Ignore

5

heard about that are accelerating exponentially and already impacting us in uncountable ways—­ ways that will possibly change our entire lives in a timeframe many will find surprisingly short. Our greatest concern is that, despite people having a general familiarity with many of these areas, extremely few are fully aware of the following: • The breadth and scope of these technologies and their impacts. • The extraordinary concentration of power in a few individuals around the world who, at present, operate with remarkably few constraints. To fully engage, it is useful to understand the underpinnings of these technologies, associated domains, and constructs. The first section is divided into four parts: • Foundational technologies. The intelligent systems behind the technological revolution. These include artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and their communication systems. • Enabling technologies. The tools that will allow the foundational technologies to rapidly deliver change. These include blockchain, decentralized autonomous organizations, tokenization, and cryptocurrencies. • Consumer-­ facing hardware deployments of foundational technologies. Our focus is primarily on technologies already in use (or becoming general purpose). There are many areas that could change the world, but if the time frame is likely to be decades out, they are outside this scope. These include robotics, automation, Internet of Things, virtual reality, and augmented reality. • Important uses of technologies you cannot ignore. There is probably no sector that does not use, directly or

6

Important Technologies You Cannot Ignore

indirectly, at least one of the technologies described in the book. We have chosen three very different areas, two vital to the future of humanity (energy and healthcare) and one little focused on or understood but with significant potential ramifications (the metaverse). We see this as similar to a marathon. The fastest runners are lined up near the starting line and know what to expect; first-­ timers are at the back and can take significant time even to get to and cross the starting line. We just want everyone to be able to finish comfortably.

CHAPTER

1

Foundational Technologies “Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will take you everywhere.” —­Albert Einstein

A

rtificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced “always-­on” communications are early-­stage technologies that are set to completely change the way we think, interact, and operate. They will lead to the complete re-­imagining of the way we interact with technology and one another through the reinvention of access points—­our devices. They will quickly be able to replicate human processes and improve them to allow us to solve problems we can only dream of today.

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Artificial Intelligence “Creativity is intelligence having fun.” —­Albert Einstein

Artificial intelligence represents either the underpinning or, at least, an important tool set for the rest of these technologies and in topics well beyond. An obvious first question is, what is artificial intelligence? A currently acceptable definition might be, by simulating human cognitive functions, the ability of a computer or robotic system not only to undertake tasks conducted by human beings, but to learn from the accomplishment of these tasks and improve their execution over time. And, over the last few years, there has been enormous progress in the ability to deliver on this. For instance, Google’s new language model, PaLM, can explain why a joke is funny, a key characteristic of human’s common sense and reasoning; OpenAI’s latest system, ChatGPT, can have conversations and answer queries; and, DALL·E 2 can create a photorealistic image from a text prompt such as “draw a cat driving a car.” A vast number of programs and apps use AI. What makes a functional definition of artificial intelligence so hard is the necessary combination of several technologies that create and develop computers simulating human levels of intelligence. In the beginning, it referred to technologies that could pass the Turing test—­i.e., whether a computer, in a conversation with a human, can avoid having that person realize it is not human. Although this definition remains relevant today, using a range of tools, products, and services (e.g., machine learning and natural language processing) AI has expanded to include many other features of our brains. AI breaks down into three principal categories: • Weak or narrow AI. This is the most common and is designed to tackle a single/specific problem. Some very widespread apps like Alexa and Siri are based on this.

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9

• Strong or artificial general intelligence (AGI). AGI is the theoretical ability to perform, comprehend, and learn any human intellectual task and to be able to continue to learn contextually in a way similar to the human mind. • Artificial super intelligence (ASI). While still theoretical, ASI is the ability to surpass the human mind and, as posited by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig, be able to think and act not like humans but rationally (however, that might be defined). Too many dystopian futures (The Terminator, The Matrix, etc.) come to mind to make this outcome seem in any way appealing. There are currently two primary theoretical approaches to AI: deterministic and stochastic. The deterministic approach always gives the same outcome given the same input, with the underlying AI always following the same sequence. At this stage of evolution, the deterministic algorithms are the most practical as they are binary, which enables them to be run efficiently on standard computers; however, the level of complexity they can handle (although increasing rapidly) is currently limited. Stochastic models are probabilistic processes that simultaneously analyze many pathways, with no completely certain, predetermined outcome. The term stochastic refers to random patterns that cannot be predicted precisely but can be analyzed statistically. Stochastic algorithms are therefore useful for problems with vast amounts of data, which may include hidden or incomplete data. Today, there are two main categories of stochastic AI development: symbolic and connectionist. Sometimes referred to as the first wave, symbolic AI is an approach that evolves the same practical way the human brain learns—­where symbols are used to represent our world and play a vital role in our thought and reasoning processes.

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The second wave is connectionist AI, which is an approach developed from attempts to understand how the human brain works at the neural level and, in particular, how people learn and remember. It is sometimes referred to as neuron-­like computing. Stochastic modeling usually requires computers able to handle massive data sets; today, these are very powerful supercomputers. The future will be in the hands (actually, circuitry) of quantum computers. As intelligent computers “learn” to improve their probabilities of achieving desired outcomes—­through recognizing and reacting to their environments—­they could be reasonably be considered “aware.” Clearly this opens enormous opportunities to benefit humanity; but it also creates enormous threats. As AI systems evolve independent cognitive abilities, they are also likely to develop independent agendas. To the extent those agendas do not parallel human goals, dystopian images come to mind. It is particularly scary to think that humans (even those programming and using AI output) are generally oblivious to the huge advances and power computers are gaining. Often referred to as the AI effect, it is the situation where machines and/ or programs evolve new cognitive AI skills, but these advances are diminished and classified merely as “machine learning;” or as Tesler’s Theorem states, “AI is whatever hasn’t been done yet.”1 Our parallel theorem is the ostrich response: “Just because you ignore a situation doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.” Our introduction briefly touched on ChatGPT’s OpenAI platform. Even in its current iteration, it is rapidly becoming part of our collective way of solving problems. However, there are many ways the developers of generative pre-­trained transformer (GPT)–based models will improve them:

1

“AI Effect,” Wikipedia (Wikimedia Foundation, March 28, 2023), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect.

Foundational Technologies

11

• Training the models on larger and more diverse data sets, allowing them to deal with more comprehensive language patterns and better handle diverse topics and writing styles. • Integrating external sources of information, such as internal corporate and external databases, to enable the models to provide more detailed and accurate answers to certain types of questions. • Incorporating additional user-­specific information, such as context or background knowledge, enabling the model to generate more accurate and relevant responses to user requests. • Using techniques such as transfer learning or fine-­tuning to pre-­train the models on specific tasks or domains, thereby allowing them to perform better on specific use cases, such as customer service. • Improving the models’ ability to handle dialogue or multiturn conversation, by considering the context and history of the conversation. • Individuals and organizations using the underlying technology of these AI foundation models, while customizing them by adding their own data and learning, will achieve a greater range of specifically targeted outcomes. It is worth noting that the field of natural language processing is evolving at breakneck speed and new methods are being developed all the time that will be (are being) used to evolve better models. The launch and widespread adoption of ChatGPT and the general public zeitgeist will only accelerate this. Potential existential threats aside, different applications of AI impact many aspects of day-­ to-­day life, some positive, some negative, and many a bit of both. A serious battle is underway to determine which functions should be performed by humans and

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which ones are better automated. Goldman Sachs has already suggested ChatGPT will eliminate as many as 300 million jobs. There is a common misconception that for AI to replace a human role, it needs to look, feel, and function like a human being or mind. This is patently false. Just observe most robots attempting to match human motor skills—­walking, catching balls, or playing sports, let alone interacting seamlessly with us; they are clumsy and often very funny indeed. This doesn’t mean, as the Industrial Revolution evidently proved, matching or bettering a specific skill wasn’t enough to replace a large part of the labor force in the fields and factories. This movement continues, soon to be supplemented in the driver’s seat, cockpit, trading room, and operating theater—­each job eliminated simply by accomplishing one skillset better or more cost-­effectively than we humans can. AI has already had an enormous set of “stealth” impacts on us in most areas of our lives—­security, medical, logistics, entertainment, transportation, social media, and information delivery, etc.; yet we are still at the incipient stage. As computing power grows exponentially (or more) and applications become increasingly sophisticated, we will all become more aware of the implications. But, at that stage, influencing the outcome might no longer be feasible; only the way it impacts us will be. AI can be our friend, but it also poses significant short-­and longer-­term risks. As ancient philosopher Laozi once said, “There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent,” and this is an opponent we ourselves are creating.

GPT As perhaps the first shot across the bow, the world is now fully embroiled in its first public and heated debate on the future of AI. The cause—­ the first broad public release of a usable

Foundational Technologies

13

“chatbot,” which uses key principles of AI to answer specific and/ or broad questions in a way more sophisticated than most people imagined possible. Up until now, the relationship between the public and AI has fallen into two distinct buckets: • The conceptual. Descriptions of a new revolutionary and evolving technology that in the future would have extraordinary power and widespread impact. • The current. Revelations on how AI is already integrated into many products and services we use (and often depend on), in ways we are often unaware. The release of ChatGPT, however, presents the first opportunity for millions of users to actively use and “control” AI for their own purposes. Even with many early-­stage glitches, the power and implications of AI have been a shock to many. Everyone appears to have an opinion, even if they are not familiar with the key underlying technologies: machine learning, neural networks, and deep learning: • Machine learning. This is a type of AI, in which a program can derive solutions to problems (or answers to questions) without having been specifically programmed to do so. Humans initially provide specified data sets and/or algorithms from which computers can independently evolve to generate requested solutions. Conversely, it can parse vast amounts of unspecified but accessible data using sophisticated approaches to recognize patterns and, through brute-­ force repetition and error analysis, improve the accuracy of the outcomes. • Neural networks. These networks are a long-­term attempt to re-­create the processing process and power of the human brain. The fundamental, underlying structure is a layering of

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“nodes” (the computer-­ equivalent to neurons) that are attached to one another and pass on information (or not) based on parameters that are specified ahead of time. The initial instructions are designated by a programmer but, through ongoing trial and error and testing, the parameters change, becoming asymptotically more accurate. • Deep learning. This is a subset of machine learning that requires much less human preprocessing of data, relying instead on the growing numbers of layers of nodes and the constant, internal, program-­ dependent reassessment and recharacterization of those nodes to achieve outcomes not determined or necessarily anticipated by the original programmers. • GPT. This is a category of AI that encompasses aspects of machine learning, neural networks, and deep learning to actively create new content rather than simply recognizing patterns in existing data: ◦ Generative systems. These take vast amounts of data and process them to create specifically requested outputs/ solutions. The more data they can access, the better the results. Perhaps even more important is their ability to assess the accuracy of prior results and improve (eventually exponentially), and to factor in the qualitative interaction with their users. ◦ Pre-­trained. This refers to the types of data that are used. In the case of GPT, the concept was to increase the power of the program by using human-­designated data sources that would be relevant—­the more sources, the better the results. However, the direction has shifted toward a blend of trained and untrained data. ◦ Transformer. This refers to a model using deep learning to process enormous quantities of data concurrently.

Foundational Technologies

15

GPT is considered an AI foundation model, meaning it has been trained on an enormous amount of data to evolve a model that can be used for a broad range of uses and applications. Because most of the data used is not defined or labeled by humans, how the model evolves cannot be fully predicted. It becomes an invention of its own invention. AI foundation models are extremely expensive to build as they use enormous data sets and computer power and also require considerable amounts of human training. ChatGPT has been developed to create new content rather than merely recognizing patterns in existing data. It is based on a type of generative AI called a generative adversarial network (GAN), which uses competing networks—­ a generator and a discriminator—­to determine results; the generator creates the output, and the discriminator evaluates what is valid based on real-­world data. Like any other rapidly evolving technology, early versions might appear weak and flawed, particularly to those outside the field. Over time, however, because they learn iteratively, they can become exponentially more accurate, more powerful, and more user-­friendly. Almost 2 years ago, during one of our “chats” with ChatGPT, we asked a simple question to which it responded that a split of 71 percent to 31 percent was appropriate. It could not even add up to 100! Today, it can achieve a B grade in a Wharton MBA course, answer complicated questions, and write essays on a vast array of topics—­sometimes extremely well, other times less so. Attorneys are already using it to help draft contracts, and the International Baccalaureate and Cambridge University have announced they will allow students to use GPT in essay writing as long as it is properly attributed as such. The next releases of GPT technology are expected to be hundreds of times more powerful; moreover products built on top of ChatGPT such as Auto-GPT already amplify its functional capabilities. As these recent developments blindsided many people, some reactions have been both ill-­informed and defensive. Yet it

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is very dangerous to evaluate a technology, the underpinnings of which are largely incontrovertible, based on early-­ stage results; a far better framework is to set probabilities on what is certain, probable, possible, or merely science fiction. No matter where one stands on that spectrum, it is hard to imagine any scenario where GPT does not change the world as much, or even more so, than Google’s search engine has over the past quarter century. Many other technologies are also having great impact, but GPT’s visibility and breadth of the uptake is dragging the world into seriously considering many of technology’s benefits and risks.

Benefits of GPT Within less than a decade, most of humanity might have equal access to data that even the most powerful and/or technically sophisticated cannot get today. More significantly, without experience or training, everyone will be able to use that data in ways tailored specifically for them. The number of uses is unquantifiable on every level.

Risks of GPT Today, AI foundation models are somewhere between crib and toddlerdom. Created to “think” like humans, they will make errors like humans: • In the short run, with limited education, they will make basic factual, computational, interactional, and functional mistakes. Filters to limit inappropriate output are also in their early stages. The rapidity with which the models can learn and self-­correct is likely to astound many. • Some answers are biased because of the underlying source materials and how they have been trained. As these become

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more varied, biases won’t disappear; they might even deepen. However, the programs will be capable of generating more balanced responses. • The wrong question will lead to the wrong answer. The less structured the question needs to be (i.e., the more user-­ friendly the application), the greater the variability in the quality of the questions and correspondingly the validity of the responses. • More data and more experience gained from a user’s questions, the answers generated, and the analysis of results will accelerate the inherent “judgment” of the systems and will rapidly bring into focus the machine/human conundrum. • The data captured by these systems can, and likely will, be used for answers to other people’s questions and the “ownership” will become unclear at best.

AI Foundation Models Although already used by many as a generic term for sophisticated, publicly available AI, ChatGPT is only a single product, focused primarily on responding in readable text to questions asked in “natural” language. Originally released in 2018, it was based on a data set of 117 million parameters. Version 3.5 boasted 175 billion, and version 4 likely uses even more. OpenAI’s other products include: DALL·E 2, a deep learning program that can generate images in response to natural language questions; Codex, which can generate sophisticated coding for programs and websites from a few natural questions; Instruct GPT, which has similarities to ChatGPT but focuses on simplifying an organization’s ability to use GPT to generate tailored answers to their specific needs; and, Whisper, a multilingual speech recognition and translation model.

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There are already many fascinating aspects to these AI foundation model; yet the most sophisticated researchers/scientists in the world still don’t know all they don’t know. For example, researchers from MIT, Stanford, and Google have disclosed that without the intent of developers, these models may actually be learning on their own. Their recent study described a phenomenon—­in-­context learning—­where these platforms can build on previous training knowledge. Rather than simply copying their training data, the language models tested seem to learn in ways potentially similar to humans and animals, allowing them to generalize and extrapolate knowledge. They could even write their own machine learning model without human intervention. Furthermore, as AI foundation model improve, they could well supplant current search engines. This has much more significance than merely improved functionality. Although search engines greatly streamline how humans conduct tasks, to this point their function has been to search and retrieve. Decisions on how to use the facts and data remain up to the user. GPT is able not only to collect information but to evaluate it, come to a single conclusion, and then communicate in many formats, all without any human involvement. Today, the accuracy of these answers is far from perfect and can contain bias, so user supervision is highly recommended. However, with exponential improvements in all aspects of GPT, how long before the user is fully disintermediated?

Other Key Players Currently, a number of other serious products are well along in their development cycle: • Bing (Microsoft). Microsoft had been developing AI for a long time before funding OpenAI and licensing its GPT

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products to use as the core of its commercial release of Bing. Microsoft has committed significant future funding for OpenAI. • Bard/LaMDA (Google/Alphabet). Google created the original Translator architecture, which it open-­sourced in 2017. It has also been working on its large-­scale language model LaMDA for a long time. The company is clearly under huge pressure to be a significant player in the GPT business, as it is a head-­on threat to its near-­monopolistic search position. However, unlike ChatGPT by OpenAI, which is still a start-­up and can take more risks, Google needs to be more cautious with its releases. Mistakes can be significantly impactful on the entire company (as happened with the bungled release of Bard). Google has had two completely separate divisions working on AI, which, due to the threat of ChatGPT, are now beginning to cooperate. They could merge to accelerate Google’s AI progress. • Sparrow (Deep Mind, subsidiary of Alphabet). Google acquired Deep Mind in 2014. Its Sparrow product is well-­ evolved and will probably go into beta testing in 2023. The release has been more cautious than those of its major competitors because its co-­founder Demis Hassabis seeks to address and correct many of the flaws and biases inherent in development-­ stage GPT models prior to public release. There could be market pressures, however, to release sooner. • Claude (Anthropic). This was originated in 2021 by researchers who left OpenAI; its thesis was to be a GPT with more conscience. It is currently in “closed” beta testing, but its future is uncertain given much of its $530 million in funding came from FTX founder Sam Bankman-­Fried, who is awaiting trial for fraud on charges related to the now-­ bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange.

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• Llama (Meta). This is a large language model, a ChatGPT equivalent, built to match its performance but with an ability to run on much less powerful devices. It currently uses only about a third the number of parameters that ChatGPT does, but unlike ChatGPT, it was designed to be “limited” open-­source, available on a case-­by-­case basis to select developers to build upon. Using this approach, Meta’s goals were to “supercharge” its progress and vastly extend its reach. They also aim to provide what they define as “open AI” technology to address issues such as bias and errors. However, on the first weekend of March 2023, the entire source code was leaked to 4Chan and eventually copied to GitHub. This made Llama (at least temporarily) fully open source. This should certainly accelerate its expansion, but at the cost of limiting Meta’s control and its ability to set the parameters of control. This could be perceived as positive or negative. The next steps lie with Meta. • Taking advantage of the Llama platform, researchers from Stanford University, in less than three hours, at a cost of only $600, created a draft chatbot they claimed to be quantitatively equivalent to ChatGPT 3. They trained it by fine-­ tuning Llama using an incremental 52,000 instructions, only 175 of which they coded directly while the rest were program generated. • Firefly (Adobe). Adobe beta released an image and video AI generative tool for content creators, designed to be integrated into Adobe’s suite of products. Firefly was trained on its library of stock images and, to respect creators, features a “Do Not Train” option, allowing them to exclude their content from Firefly’s training data and thereby retain control over the content they generate.

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• 365 Copilot (Microsoft). Not the same product as GitHub Copilot, which is also owned by Microsoft, 365 Copilot is generative AI specifically designed for integration into the Microsoft Office 365 suite of products (Excel, Outlook, PowerPoint, Teams, and Word) to work with users’ own data. In addition, Microsoft is integrating Copilot into Power Apps—­one of its lesser-­known applications. Users without programming skills will be able to generate the code to create apps through simple text instructions. The reasons for Apple apparently not yet having a product are unclear. However, it certainly has both the resources to develop one and a large potential user base.

Quantum Computing “With great power comes great responsibility.” —­Peter Parker, Spiderman

Many technologies, although difficult to implement, are easy to grasp in principle, others less so. There is no topic, however, more difficult to understand and explain than quantum computing. Stated as simply as possible, traditional computing runs calculations sequentially with each step binary (simple yes or no), leading to a single, definitive outcome (closed set). Reaching a meaningful answer to even a moderately simple problem requires a huge number of iterative calculations. Quantum computers run vast numbers of calculations simultaneously, looking not at a single binary outcome but rather at an enormous number of different ones, each with an underlying probability (open set). The difference in the speed of computation can be enormous. Over time, this will not only offer extraordinary efficiency gains but also enhance the relevance of the answers derived. When

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incorporated into many of the technologies in this book, it has the potential to lead to outcomes we could not have conceived of a few decades ago nor, quite frankly, even now. What can quantum computing accomplish? In an article in April 1965, Gordon Moore, one of the two founders of Intel (and essential godfather of the microchip), predicted the power of computing would double every year for a decade. Subsequently, he revised that estimate to doubling every two years.2 Since 1965, this represents an increase in power of many quintillion times. There are traditionalists who believe this increase is destined to slow, and if we remain reliant on current chip technology, that is probably accurate since miniaturization eventually has its limits—­some current chips are already smaller than the diameter of a strand of DNA. Others see a future where computing power could further increase by millions of times (or possibly far more) within a decade or two. How is this even remotely possible? It requires a complete paradigm shift that, to almost all of us, is not only largely incomprehensible but verges on the bizarre. And yet the mechanics, physics, and now computer engineering required to achieve this are actually happening. As you will see, there are several key elements that make the core concepts of quantum extremely difficult to grasp; furthermore, there is a set of practical constraints that make harnessing their power in a computer even more complicated.

Quantum Theory The elements in question are the smallest building blocks of the universe. Unlike classical mechanics and physics, which are based on tangible and observable phenomena, quantum’s underpinning 2 “Gordon E. Moore,” Science History Institute, March 27, 2023, www.sciencehistory.org/historical-­profile/ gordon-­e-­moore.

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is on the subatomic—­protons, neutrons, and electrons. The theoretical mathematics and physics that established their existence and behaviors long pre-­dated the ability to measure any of the phenomena being hypothesized. Only recently have practical experiments begun to verify many theoretical aspects of quantum theory. For quantum theory to work, one needs to accept something can actually be in two different states simultaneously. Classical physics is based on the fundamental premise that something either has mass or does not. All equations that underpin Newton’s Laws require this to be true. Quantum proves it possible to be both a particle (with mass, no matter how small that mass might be) and also a wave—­which is a mass-­less phenomenon; and they can act as both at the same time. Without scientists and mathematicians fully reaching consensus on how, one also needs to accept that a particle can be in two places at the same time. Classical physics postulates nothing can travel faster than the speed of light, thereby creating an obvious set of widely accepted limitations; without these constraints, dreams such as space travel become much more grounded in reality. In quantum theory, events are uncertain and unpredictable. This necessitates a “probabilistic” approach that allows for many different possible outcomes. Although this dramatically complicates the analytical process, it creates a paradigm that allows massively simultaneous scenario computation. Classical mechanics and physics—­the laws of movement (action, reaction, etc.)—­ are established and unalterable, thereby creating a “closed system” whereby there can be only one possible outcome if the values of the underlying variables are known. As such, analysis is either independent or sequential, rather than quantum, which can be both interactive and interdependent.

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Quantum Computing Our world is based mainly on probabilistic outcomes rather than binary ones. Modeling these on traditional computers requires translating these probabilities into digital form. The structure of quantum computing is not just a series of zeros and ones, potentially allowing us to model our world more accurately: • Embracing uncertainty. In traditional computers, information is stored in bits (each of which has only two possible outcomes (0 or 1). All outcomes are deterministic, meaning every time a calculation is executed with the same inputs, the same result will occur; data is processed logically, sequentially, and constrained by the historically defined laws of classical physics. As all problems need to be structured as a series of binary outcomes, the complexity of the problem a chip can process is constrained by its number of bits and the sophistication of the algorithms designed to use them. In quantum computers, information is stored in quantum bits (qubits), each of which has an infinite number of possible outcomes. All the outcomes are probabilistic, meaning the repetition of the exact same calculation will result in different outcomes; calculations are carried out in parallel and subject to the much less definable characteristics of quantum physics. The massively parallel processing possible with a qubit exponentially increases the theoretic computational power. Imagine a race with a single participant. Given a specific route and the runner’s personal attributes, a traditional computer will quickly tell you how long the race will take. However, a quantum computer, given the starting and end points, could simultaneously evaluate a 10-­million-­person race that is not constrained by a defined route and using a probability-­based algorithm, look at all the results, and thereby determine who is most likely the winner and which was the best route.

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To achieve the power to massively simultaneously process, it is necessary to “link” many qubits together, while not increasing the probability of error. This remains a real and challenging constraint and is, at present, the greatest obstacle to quantum’s commercial growth potential. • Algorithmic complexity. Given the completely new logical paradigm quantum represents, the approach to programming also needs to be completely different. It will be an iterative process that grows more seamless, the more results are analyzed. In a world of infinite and infinitely changeable outcomes, one is looking not simply at probabilities but also at the probability of probabilities, perhaps leading more toward an iterative heuristic approach. • Engineering constraints. It is all well and good to talk about qubits in the abstract. The practical constraint is that for a quantum processor to exist, the qubits need to be extremely isolated from the real-­world environment; otherwise, decoherence takes place, essentially degrading the quantum environment and greatly diminishing the validity and value of the results. Currently, most isolation includes cooling to levels found in deep space. Research is ongoing into a range of methodologies (including photonics) and the use of different materials to make the process easier to create and maintain, and for commercial production to become more scalable. The truly world-­changing evolution of quantum computing and its applications in all frontier technologies comes from the ability to control an increased number of qubits interacting with one another, allowing for quantum entanglement. In 2010, quantum computers with limited numbers of qubits were used for demonstration purposes. By 2017, IBM had launched a 50-­qubit chip, and in 2019 IBM announced it had processed certain computations faster than the fastest traditional supercomputer

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(although some believe this to be quite overstated). An announcement of a 127-­qubit chip was made in November 2021, and the race to 1,000 qubits is well out of the starting blocks. The number of qubits, however, is only one factor; how they are used or controlled is equally important. Nonetheless, even though quantum advocates’ short-­term projections are potentially overhyped, the longer-­term outcomes are likely to be game-­changing. The increased global interest among scientists, mathematicians, engineers, corporations, governments, military, businesses, etc., virtually assure increased capital commitment; and, if the progress of the past decade is in any way indicative, the acceleration of practical innovation over the next decade(s) is likely to be extraordinary. Breakthroughs could occur at any time. Quantum computers are being targeted to solve optimization problems and simulations that result in several outcomes based on probability, rather than the single result that traditional computers are designed to achieve. For a traditional computer to achieve simulations, they need to run the simulation repeatedly, whereas a quantum computer achieves it all in one cycle. In late 2019, Google claimed (with much independent skepticism) it had solved a problem on a quantum computer in 200 seconds that would have taken a traditional computer 10,000 years to complete.3 A little more than a year later, a team in China claimed it conducted a calculation in the same 200 seconds that would have taken a supercomputer more than 2 billion years to complete—­a mind-­boggling 100 trillion times faster.4 And the breakthrough quantum computer is not even here yet.

3 Emily Conover, “Google Officially Lays Claim to Quantum Supremacy,” Science News, November 8, 2019, www.sciencenews.org/article/google-­quantum-­computer-­supremacy-­claim. 4 Tom Simonite, “China Stakes Its Claim to Quantum Supremacy,” Wired (Conde Nast, December 3, 2020), www.wired.com/story/china-­stakes-­claim-­quantum-­supremacy.

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For quantum computers to have significant impact, they are likely to need 100 (or more) error-correcting qubits; currently a significant number of standard qubits are required to achieve a single euro-correcting one. Many times the current power will be necessary. Perhaps optimistically, some quantum advocates tell us we might be there within 3 years. With moderate progress, quantum computing will add significant value in areas that include logistics of all types (including global delivery), healthcare (e.g., genome sequencing), manufacture and design, financial risk modeling and derivatives, fraud detection, national security, weather tracking, agriculture, cybersecurity, the blockchain and cryptocurrencies, among many others. Overall, it is also likely to be the most impactful of all frontier technologies and could be a major factor in shifting geopolitical power.

Sources of Data While data may not seem like a foundational technology, its collection and categorization are. Think GIGO—­garbage in, garbage out. Without complete and accurate data, the full potential power of foundational technologies cannot be unleashed. Information is at the heart of every aspect of the Cognitive Revolution, and there is a significant lack of knowledge and confusion about what happens when it is generated, where it then resides, who/what can access it, and how. Yet despite its ubiquity, until information is in some way categorized, it is essentially unusable. Today, the general expectation appears to be that anything of use is indexed and available in some way on the World Wide Web (“Web”). This is unfortunately inaccurate. To better

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understand the “universe” of information, we break it down into five categories, listed here in order of their size: • Random information. The amount is almost limitless and largely unusable in any methodical manner. To put it in context, Statista estimates by 2025, “The total amount of data created, captured, copied, and consumed globally is forecast to increase rapidly, reaching. . .up to. . .more than 180 zettabytes.” This is the equivalent of 180 trillion gigabytes. • World Wide Web. This encompasses data that exists in an accessible form, either directly by a user or through a web-­ searching program. The total is undetermined, but the most commonly seen estimate is around 7.5  million gigabytes. Although the general perception is this universe of data can be fully searched, this is not the case, as most data resides in the Deep Web and is either unindexed, private, or archived. • Deep Web. This is a term for that part of the Web that cannot be fully accessed through standard search engines. The Deep Web is thought to represent as much as 99 percent of the Web, or perhaps more. This includes: Sources that are fee-­based (e.g., Netflix, news articles, other subscription services); contain private information (e.g., bank and securities accounts, medical information, etc.); comprise emails, texts, and private areas on social media; are private databases (academic, corporate, governmental); contain archived data, no longer in public circulation; and the infamous Dark Web. It is important to note the Deep Web is often (incorrectly) used synonymously with the Dark Web; even ChatGPT recently made that error and then apologized when we called it out. • Surface Web. While the scope of and amount of data in the Surface Web and Dark Web are difficult to gauge, it is likely

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the Surface Web is far larger, certainly in terms of number of sites. The Surface Web is the part of the Web actually accessible by search engines and thereby used by most of us on the Internet and also by most large AI models. Many users mistakenly believe the Surface Web is actually the full Web. But since it represents only a small fraction of the information, this is clearly inaccurate. • Dark Web. Another relatively small part of the Deep Web (but still substantial on an absolute basis) consists of information deliberately hidden, often for illegal purposes. This requires special browsers and software to access. According to some sources, it comprises approximately 3,000 hidden sites. The Dark Web allows communications and transactions to be conducted anonymously and is known to host groups and services targeted at ransomware, hacking, fraud, pornography, and terrorism among others. It includes marketplaces for buying and selling of illegal services and data that are often thought to be transacted with cryptocurrencies. Probably the most (in)famous of these marketplaces was Silk Road, which operated between 2011 and 2013, until it was shut down by the FBI after the arrest of Ross Ulbricht who launched it. The main products and services available on Silk Road to its estimated 100,000 buyers, included drugs, fake drivers’ licenses, child pornography, credit cards, weapons, and even contracts for murder. As information has been increasingly digitized and indexed, all of us rely more and more on search engines to efficiently find data for us. This has clear advantages, but because their access is blocked to so many sites, it also means we are excluding an enormous amount of potentially valuable information that might contribute to more complete, accurate, and/or nuanced sets of

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answers. Furthermore, as frontier technologies are developed and adopted based on this information, the situation will become more fundamental. As an example, in spite of a belief the advent of ChatGPT would improve the situation, it has in fact, so far, exacerbated it. In ChatGPT’s own words: “As an AI language model, I don’t have access to websites that require a paid subscription or a password-­protected login. While some news articles or other information from these types of sites may be available through publicly accessible sources, such as search engines or news aggregators, access to the full content generally requires a paid subscription or login credentials. That being said, I can still provide information and answer questions about general topics and concepts related to these sites and their content. For example, I can provide information about the types of news articles or information that might be found on financial news websites or provide context and background information on a particular news story.” As all of us use these evolving models, we must understand their limitations. They can be extremely useful tools, but in excluding so much information that could be extremely important, there is a risk the answers they come up with are unbalanced or simply wrong. It is up to us, as we make active use of the growing number of programs available, to push ways they evolve their access to much more information, both in the Deep Web and beyond.

Advanced Communications “If you want to find the secrets of the universe, think in terms of energy, frequency, and vibration.” —­Nikola Tesla

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Computer technology is composed of four core elements: • Creation of data • Storage and retrieval of data • Use of data • Communication of data They are all crucial and work on the principle of the “weakest link.” It doesn’t matter how fast a computer can crunch through a problem if the final user is elsewhere and that information needs to be transmitted by carrier pigeon. Communication is crucial and, although vastly improved, has to date been the weakest link. To understand the future, it is not a bad idea to understand how we reached the present. Of all types of human activity, communication probably took the longest to develop. From the initial evolution into homo sapiens until 6,000 years ago (the domestication of horses), the only transmission of information was on two feet. Smoke, fire, drums, and flags (depending on culture) were the next major development. As transportation evolved, so did communication, fully constrained by the speed of the underlying “vehicle.” The year 1843 was the first major turning point when Samuel Morse commercialized the telegraph. In 1876, Bell originated the telephone. Marconi followed with radio wave communication in 1901. George Stibitz developed the first computer communications in 1940. Satellites were unveiled in 1958. Digital telephony followed in the 1980s, but the true online and wireless revolution didn’t really start to take off until the 1990s. Since then, there has been a frenetic pace of invention and implementation. There are many possible filters through which to look at communication, but they tend to fit into “wired” and “wireless.”

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Wired With the enormous advances in wireless communication, many expectantly await a death knoll for wires. For the moment, and for a long time to come, this is extremely unlikely indeed. Currently there are six highly important advantages to wired communication: • Dedicated bandwidth • Fewer unpredictable traffic surges • Fewer interruptions in service • Less interference • Better security • An enormous installed base An important question is whether there will be new technological advances that will expand fiber’s capabilities. Perhaps the rate of change will not be as great as in wireless, but the starting point is so much better. The following are some interesting areas: • Optical couplers and switches, permitting signals to be transmitted without electrical processing. • Wavelength division multiplexing, allowing multiple carriers to transmit signals along the same line, thereby increasing bandwidth. • Orbital angular momentum (OAM), twisting light into a spiral, which can increase bandwidth, by perhaps as much as 100 times. • Radio over fiber (ROF) permitting radio signals to be transmitted over fiber, for applications looking to avoid electromagnetic interference.

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Even without major advances, however, the level of existing installation and the extraordinary number of hardware and software connections among many different sources will make the transition time away from wired much longer than many forward-­ thinkers anticipate.

Wireless There are three main reasons wireless communication is crucial to the evolution of frontier technologies and the world in general: • Not limiting users to fixed locations. More and more, people look to be free from the constraints of a single work or leisure environment—­people move. • Does not require major installation on the user side. Obviously, there are major costs involved with the equipment required to handle/process communications; however, users can immediately gain access in a greater diversity of locations. • Lower initial setup time and costs. There is no need to lay cable. Wireless communication is achieved by a generator encoding information (sound, video, or data) into a sine function that it transmits through an electromagnetic wave. The receiver then decodes the transmission. There are a number of different uses (GPS, radar, infrared, etc.), but our focus is on the most general purpose directed formats: cellular and satellite. The history of the mobile phone is rather brief, emerging in 1973, with Motorola’s two kilo behemoth. Of the two categories, cellular represents a huge percentage of the market. Nonetheless, there are some extremely important uses of satellites as well.

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Cellular Cellular telephones operate across a cellular network, composed of a nonspecific number of defined geographic areas (cells) that generally have three towers with transceivers that receive and transmit signals across a range of different frequencies. A cell phone user’s communication travels to the tower and then is redirected to its destination. As one moves to the edge of one cell zone, there is an automatic handoff to the next cell. The frequency in adjacent zones is always different to avoid interference but can be reused many times over the total distance of the communication. The overall range is limited only by the number of cells—­one can always add another cell. Although a relatively recent arrival on the communications landscape, cellular’s adoption and evolution have been quite rapid. The Past • 1G: analog. It was first rolled out in Tokyo in 1979 and had achieved broad geographic distribution by the mid-­ 1980s. Although a great step forward, it was limited by requiring large spectrum and was unencrypted, making all content vulnerable. • 2G: digital. Starting in the early 1990s, it greatly increased capacity, allowing for a dramatic growth of the market. Over time, it allowed the emergence of Short Message Service (SMS) messages, personal digital assistants (PDAs), and phone payment systems. • 3G + 3.5G: broadband. A new generation of protocols was necessary to satisfy surging demand and came online in 2001. Innovative switching allowed multiple communications to be delivered simultaneously, rather than sequentially, hugely increasing efficiency. The quality of the

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connection improved, and the average speed increased by as much as 30 times, allowing effective web browsing and streaming. It felt like trading in your old Ford for a Porsche. The Present • 4G: IP network. By the time 4G was released in 2009 (fully “deployed” by 2014) new systems were required to handle dramatically surging communications, many quite large (video, gaming, large data sets, etc.). The system shares the same protocols as the Internet. It can achieve five times the speed of 3G, sometimes much more. • 5G. While 5G networks do already exist, they are still nascent and their applications immature. As such, for now, we will include discussion on 5G in the next section.

Moving into the Future The importance of flexible, high-­speed communications cannot be underestimated for the next stage of frontier technologies. While earlier generation mobile networks were simply upgrades on their previous generations, 5G is a full redesign that will enable connection among virtually every device and person. This makes 5G a game-­changer for IoT. It has the reliability, capacity, and availability to deliver a uniform experience to more users. As an “always-­ on” universal communication network, 5G frees computers from always needing to house all their data, allowing them to be smaller and lighter. The movement toward Cloud-­ Based data storage is accelerating dramatically. Combined, this storage allows access to much more information, much more quickly, in a much greater range of devices.

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5G Multiband  While the release of 5G is well underway and is expected to attract more than six billion users within the next few years, there are currently very few practical uses from a consumer’s standpoint. It can theoretically offer speeds of 20 times the rate of 4G (higher, in fact, than today’s home broadband) and improving latency (responsiveness) by as much as 50 times. It will also increase the number of devices it can handle simultaneously by 1,000 per meter. These extraordinary improvements stem from a range of technological innovations across the whole delivery chain and, perhaps most significantly, the ability to take advantage of far more spectrum than prior generations—­a combination of low, medium, and high band. High band, in particular, allows more data to be transmitted at higher speeds. The advantages are clear; however, the level of euphoria and optimism must be tempered with a range of potential constraints: • The technology is still evolving. • High-­frequency signals are much more subject to physical constraints, such as rain, topography, etc. • It is best used in densely populated areas, which is problematic in rural communities. • Although towers can be smaller, because they need to be closer to the endpoints, there need to be many more of them. • Installation and servicing are more complicated and expensive. • Large numbers of installed devices of different types (IoT) are not compatible and will need to be replaced. • 5G handsets are currently more expensive and might slow down the rollout.

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• Because 5G is much more decentralized, the complexity of encryption and security is incomprehensibly greater, and software development has a long way to go. • Upload speeds are much slower than download speeds. 6G  The protocols for 6G are already underway and will seek to build off the advances of 5G, improving on speed, connectivity, latency, and all other key areas. It will be built for, and take advantage of, many of the advances made in other frontier technologies. Although it will undoubtedly be extremely influential, we are only at the incipient stages of 5G, and much of the direction future generations will take depends on the specific successes and failures of 5G over the next few years.

Satellite About 9,000 satellites have so far been launched. There are many uses—­science and astronomy, navigation, observation, defense, weather and, among the most prevalent, communications. A communications satellite uses a transponder to process a signal received from a transmitter on Earth (or in space) and then amplify and redirect it to a receiver elsewhere on Earth. They are used primarily by the military and telephone, television, radio, and Internet service providers. Almost all commercial communications satellites are in geostationary orbit, 22,236 miles above the equator; this has the advantage of making the satellite appear stationary, thereby eliminating the need for active tracking by transmitters and receivers. Telecommunications applications generally use high-­frequency bandwidth because they allow much more

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information to be transferred; the downside is the equipment is much more complex, and the higher the bandwidth, the greater the potential interference from physical and climactic impediments. Elon Musk’s Starlink semimobile Internet is satellite-­based. What are the main benefits and disadvantages of satellite communications? Advantages • It has an almost universal coverage area, often making it the only means of fixed communication in rural areas that do not have pre-­existing wiring. • There are strong benefits for mobile applications. • There is considerable available bandwidth. • Signals can be encoded to provide security. • It is easier for a single provider to offer global coverage. • The terrestrial aspects are easier and cheaper to maintain and can easily be relocated. Disadvantages • The cost of designing, building, and launching satellites remains extremely high. • Maintaining satellites is complicated and expensive. • Satellites have a relatively short life expectancy, based on a number of constraints, particularly the durability of the onboard batteries necessary to conduct/maintain certain functions. • Decommissioning and failures can be hazardous.

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• Because of the distance the signals need to travel, there can be a delay of up to 700  milliseconds, which can cause an echo on voice communications and problematic delays on data communications, particularly on response-­ sensitive applications such as securities trading, banking, and games. Satellite communications will continue to benefit from the same types of technological advances as cellular—­in both hardware and software. As the software gets better, not only will it improve the ability to manipulate, filter, amplify signal, etc., it will also enable satellites to become more flexible, adaptable, and remotely maintainable. From a financial perspective, the smaller the satellite becomes, the cheaper to launch. Also, as more satellites are built and each one becomes less unique and as cutting-­edge manufacturing advances, the cost to build the satellites themselves will also decrease. This initiates the virtuous cycle of lower costs. Although the rate of acceleration of communication growth will almost certainly be greatest in the cellular sector, satellite, like landlines, seems here to stay for quite a while.

Key Takeaways As powerful as these foundational technologies might be, they are dependent on the amount and quality of data they can access. While systems are creating and collecting data on an immense scale, there remain significant issues regarding effective use, including protecting security and privacy and ensuring reliability and permanence. These problems are particularly challenging in the early stages of foundational technology development and deployment.

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This chapter provided a brief background to and explanation of the core foundational frontier technologies: AI, quantum computing, and always-­on communications: • The capabilities of these key frontier technologies are increasing exponentially, not only because of the ever-­ growing computational power but also because of paradigmatic shifts in programming capabilities that continue to converge on replicating the processes of the human mind. • These technologies will increasingly be able to replicate human processes, thereby allowing us to solve problems we can only dream of today. • The public release of ChatGPT has, for the first time, put the power of AI into the hands of millions of users. Its impact was immediate and shocking. The world is rapidly beginning to understand just how revolutionary the changes from AI will be. It is inevitable, simultaneously generating many opportunities and unleashing considerable apprehension. • Quantum computing, in particular, will have extraordinary impact because: ◦◦ Traditional computers are binary—­ yes or no—­ and sequential (there is a set order of processing). The world is not. Quantum computing is probabilistic and allows for the simultaneous parallel assessment of many scenarios. This is a much closer reflection of reality and will permit more accurate analyses of complex problems. ◦◦ It can identify solutions humans and traditional computers cannot. ◦◦ There is a phenomenal increase in speed and power, solving problems in minutes that would take traditional computers many years.

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• The expectations for quantum computing are enormous; however, given both theoretical and engineering complexities, widespread release of general purpose quantum computers might take longer than optimists believe. Regardless, the advances are already dramatic, and quantum will become a power and accelerator for many evolving disruptive technologies. It could also be a major factor in shifting geopolitical power, likely accelerating and complicating its progress. • Current communications systems continue to improve incrementally, improving both local and global coverage. Rolling out 5G (and then 6G) will represent a major leap forward, not only in improving the coverage and quality of communication but also allowing “always-­on” communications to become a widespread reality. With IoT, this will lead to a significantly more connected world, for better or worse.

CHAPTER

2

Enabling Technology “Down the rabbit hole.” —­The crypto industry

D

ozens, or even hundreds, of enabling technologies all centered around an ingenious technology known as blockchain are now entering the market. Despite its simplicity—­a chain of blocks of data—­it is complex to build and operate blockchain systems securely. Yet, it forms the basis for the entire decentralized, “code is king” model where humans can be disintermediated from transactions and even organizations (the enigmatic DAO). Blockchains are also the foundation for bitcoin and cryptocurrency, and computer tokenization is headed toward exclusively using them as well. While tokenization is and has been broadly used by computers for some time, well before blockchain’s existence, there are strong links, leading us to discuss them together. 43

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Blockchain Blockchain is a set of protocols that, in an extraordinarily innovative and secure fashion, creates a transactional record that can be used either by humans or in remote processes. Combined with artificial intelligence, it is hard to envision a scenario where aspects of blockchain will not disrupt almost every industry sector in the short and medium term. New technologies will likely supersede blockchains. As such, they might not be significant in the long term, but, for now, they are probably one of the most important enablers of the Cognitive Revolution and the adoption of frontier technologies. A blockchain is a form of electronic database system that, in a technologically sophisticated manner, can limit (if not eliminate) the ability for anyone to cheat, corrupt, or change the system. Euromoney defines it simply: “A blockchain is essentially a digital ledger of transactions that is duplicated and distributed across the entire network of computer systems on the blockchain. Each block in the chain contains a number of transactions, and every time a new transaction occurs on the blockchain, a record of that transaction is added to every participant’s ledger. The decentralized database managed by multiple participants is known as Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT).”1 Specifically, it uses a series of time-­stamped data blocks recorded to a chain of records, on various computers (which are called nodes), such that the chain and the data are immutable. These blocks of data are secured and bound to each other using cryptography. As nodes process new blocks, they are added to previous blocks as a chain, which is why it’s called blockchain.

1 “What Is Blockchain?,” Euromoney Learning, accessed March 15, 2023, www.euromoney.com/learning/ Blockchain-­Explained/What-­is-­blockchain.

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Although this may seem like an unexciting development, it is actually profound. As Ginni Rometty, CEO of IBM at the time, said, “What the Internet did for communications, I think blockchain will do for trusted transactions.”2 The idea of being able to create a digitized set of rules and, whether implemented by humans or digitally, knowing they can be used as the basis for a transaction (tokens), a contract (smart contract), or even the governance structure of an entire organization (DAO) is revolutionary. The concept of computers working independently also has potentially terrifying implications. If there is an inviolable verification system, many of these concerns can be allayed. Not only is this huge for the world of finance and data, but it can be equally significant in any industry where secure recordkeeping is essential—­medical services, most areas of government bureaucracy, insurance, etc. In fact, there is no industry in which blockchain (or its successors) cannot create significant and positive disruption. In essence, when combined, the blockchain and a smart contract (discussed later in this chapter) allows computers to begin taking over basic functions now fully under human control. There are a range of different types of blockchain. The following are the three primary categories: • Public blockchains. Examples are Bitcoin or Ethereum, in which anyone can join and take part. It is inherently a self-­ governing network, as anyone can see, write, and audit all activities. There is a unique incentive system (explained in a moment) that is designed to maintain the independence and democratic nature of the network.

2 Graham Rapier, “From Yelp Reviews to Mango Shipments: IBM’s CEO on How Blockchain Will Change the World,” Business Insider, June 21, 2017, www.businessinsider.com/ibm-­ ceo-­ ginni-­ rometty-­ blockchain­transactions-­internet-­communications-­2017-­6?op=1.

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• Private blockchains. These are more similar to an intranet for a corporation or group of corporations, where only authorized users and systems can access and manage the network. To participate in the network, a user needs to be properly verified, and admitted, thereby allowing a greater level of security. On the other hand, those running the blockchain have the power to write, edit, and delete anything they choose, and can choose the incentives they offer, thereby eliminating the decentralization and democratic nature of the network. They are more akin to a cryptographically sophisticated distributed ledger. • Permissioned blockchains. These can be viewed as a hybrid between public and private ones. They can be open to a much broader set of users than private networks but are also able to require stringent identity verification procedures. They can also vary the “rights” of different users by granting different “permissions” to different participants. Although the permissioned blockchain retains security along its timeline, the ability to add different types of information can be tailored to specific parties. In manufacturing, the initial contract might be accessible only to senior executives for the buyer and seller of the product; then, the factory might access only the technical specifications and delivery parameters and then be able to input the part numbers, quality control information, and shipping data; logistics firms and customs officers could see pricing and other required importation information; and so on down the supply chain. The breadth of application is boundless. As decentralized blockchains are shared and immutable (i.e., they cannot be changed or removed without an additional transaction) and the information in them is open for anyone to see and add to, everyone involved needs to be accountable for their

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actions. In their current embodiments, these networks are made accountable through a reward system where good behavior is compensated and bad behavior is penalized. This is through tokens. In this model, those who write the data and blocks, miners, are rewarded with tokens. By limiting the creation of new tokens, the entire community is rewarded through an increasing token price so that the tokens they own get more and more valuable so long as they all behave responsibly. BTC is the token of the Bitcoin network, and ETH is the token of the Ethereum network, but there are thousands of others. Imagine a scenario in which James owns buildings across various cities that he has agreed, based on certain metrics, to sell to a third party, whom he does not necessarily trust. James could code a smart contract - a computer program on a blockchain described in more detail later in the book—with the buyer that automatically executes the sale of any property based on agreed metrics (e.g., rental income of the property, values of nearby buildings, completion of work, planning permission, etc.). To work, both parties would need to fully agree on how these metrics are sourced and verified. A set of blockchains would be an ideal structure. Once the parties agree on the blockchains and the smart contract is entered into another blockchain, computers (without the need for human intervention) can continuously monitor the transaction and execute a sale if the agreed criteria are reached. In a world with an increasing number of blockchains and faster, more effective computers, the need for human intervention will decrease dramatically. The blockchain, as it is currently structured and configured, although innovative and incredibly valuable, is only the first step. What the blockchain achieves is fantastic; however, how it does so is currently cumbersome and prone to attack, limiting how much it can grow (and dominate) in its current form. The paradox of blockchains is the more efficient they are, the less secure they appear to be.

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Blockchain Mechanisms Every blockchain requires a mechanism that allows all its users to agree on the history and current position of its distributed ledger. This consensus algorithm is designed to achieve a reliable set of data, even if some of the participants themselves may not be reliable. There are already several competing consensus protocols, which are generically called proof of something. Their overall purpose is to ensure the secure, reliable, and efficient operation of the network. Unfortunately, the process can be extremely complicated and can require enormous amounts of actual energy to execute, as a result of the sheer number of computers that need to be run simultaneously. The more transactions calculated, the more energy used, and the higher the cost of transacting. As such, there is a fundamental battle between how secure a transaction must be and the cost (compute power and energy use) of achieving that security. Far and away the most secure and used by both Bitcoin and Ethereum Version One, is proof of work (POW). Proof of stake (POS) is used by Ethereum Version Two, further establishing it in the industry. More recently, with the rapid growth of IoT, a new protocol called proof of assignment has also been garnering attention. But with the continued explosion in blockchains, there are many other approaches being developed and tested; we could refer to these as proof of something else (POSE). Clearly, the goal over time is to become more efficient yet also provide rigorous security to deliver much greater speed, efficiency, and decentralization. There are two principal approaches: • Making POW more efficient in terms of energy consumption and transactions, by using green energy (which is not necessarily more efficient, only more eco-­ friendly) and establishing new protocols executed outside the blockchains themselves, thereby reducing the actual number of

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transactions that need to be written directly to the underlying POW blockchains. • Improving the security of the various POSE protocols. It is uncertain which approach will have better results and dominate or whether both can peacefully coexist. Perhaps the best outcome is that a new consensus mechanism will appear. Regardless, these will almost certainly represent only interim steps, as none of these protocols is proven to be quantum computing safe.

Proof of Work This is an approach that requires all members of a network to spend time and money to solve an arbitrary mathematical problem. Its goal is to create a hurdle to disincentivize players from being disruptive to the network by making their financial costs to do so greater than their potential benefits. The unfortunate practical constraint, given the enormous current power requirements of CPUs, is the enormous use of energy. A good analogy is of a 100-­meter race; everyone runs it, they are all prepared and have trained, and they all expend enormous energy to reach the end (or near the end). But there is only one winner; as such, all the other runners’ energies are, effectively, wasted. Nonetheless, it is currently the most decentralized approach and is fairest and most open to everyone, with very little chance of manipulation. However, their cost of entry for the Bitcoin network is now considerable.

Proof of Stake This involves pre-­assigning a node the right to add a new transaction to a blockchain, based on its percentage ownership of that blockchain’s tokens. Its main advantage over POW is its speed and lower energy use; however, it is also less secure. The other main drawback is it encourages token accumulation, rather than

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use; this distorts the price and power base and makes it harder and harder for new entrants. Using the same race analogy, only one person is allowed to compete; the selection is random but based largely on the number of races the person has won. Although this reduces energy waste, it strongly favors nodes already successful on the network, making it less secure and encouraging powerful miners to collaborate, as their odds of being chosen and amassing more tokens are thereby much greater. This is far less decentralized and less fair, and while open to everyone, there is much more chance of manipulation at each stage in choosing the winner. And the more one wins, the greater the chance of winning the next time. Fairness and ethics play a greatly diminished role.

Proof of Assignment This is an interesting evolution and is focused not on securing a distributed ledger, rather on keeping records and coordinating among interacting devices. Today, everything from one’s watch to toaster to scooter has embedded microprocessors that through advanced telecommunications can interact with one another. IoT is the catchall definition that encompasses these activities. POA is a key part of assuring coordination and some level of security. Furthermore, many of these devices have the capacity to engage in limited amounts of mining (explained in the next paragraph). Because they do not operate continuously at full capacity, they can use a portion of their excess processing power to do some of the computations involved in mining. The idea of taking billions of devices, coordinating their power excesses (like consumer solar electricity generators connecting into the grid), and having them conduct discrete functions that are essentially meaningless on their own and then relaying this information to “master” collection nodes that conduct the integration and security functions is extraordinarily powerful. Effective and secure execution is, however, extraordinarily challenging.

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Mining Mining is the colloquial name for the process of receiving new Bitcoins or other tokens used on different networks for completing the “work.” In the Bitcoin network this work is the solving of increasingly complex equations generated by the Bitcoin network. So, while Bitcoin mining is very much virtual, it requires expensive physical components—­ computing power (and support) and the electricity necessary to run all the computers. Miners race to be the first to process new Bitcoin transactions, called blocks, and receive freshly minted Bitcoins in return. As with gold, which is costly to find, mine, and secure (all of which are drivers determining its price), Bitcoin miners need a certain Bitcoin price threshold to break even. According to Glassnode, this price is more than $18,000 per Bitcoin.3 It is estimated the Bitcoin system uses more power than all of Sweden.4 There was, upon its launch, a permanent issuing limitation of 21  million Bitcoin. As Bitcoin uses a form of preprogrammed synthetic inflation, whereby the Bitcoin issuance rewards halve every 210,000 blocks mined (1 percent of the total), this continually reduces the rate of Bitcoins being released into circulation. This has the effect of increasing the cost of mining by requiring twice as much work for the same number of Bitcoin. The Bitcoin network also adjusts the complexity of equations required to be solved by miners, based on the speed at which they are being solved (both too slow and too fast) to ensure mining costs and performance are maintained. When the last Bitcoin is mined, expected to be in around 2140, the break-­even cost to mine could reach $2 million, based on today’s energy costs. 3 Joshua Oliver, “Bitcoin Drops below Key $20,000 Threshold,” Financial Times, June 19, 2022, www.ft.com/ content/97b5a774-­d817-­4d3b-­82b2-­6bbe22c3d59b. 4 Jon Huang, Claire O’Neill, and Hiroko Tabuchi, “Bitcoin Uses More Electricity than Many Countries. How Is That Possible?,” The New  York Times, September 3, 2021, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/03/ climate/bitcoin-­carbon-­footprint-­electricity.html.

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Forking and 51 Percent Attacks A key feature of blockchain is its immutability. Once set, it is set forever on the chain and can be removed only by a reverse “transaction.” Forking is when a blockchain is split into separate paths, creating two, or potentially more, blockchains that retain a shared history but adopt different sets of rules going forward. This happens because people don’t always agree and sometimes want things to remain constant only if it represents what they want or the truth they believe. And so it has been with blockchain. There are two famous examples that have arisen so far in its rather short history—­one arising from a major disagreement among users in Bitcoin, the other from a structural flaw in blockchain governance with Ethereum. Forking was originally a compromise to allow an outcome between disagreeing cryptocurrency powerhouses and has now become a tool open to others facing conflict or looking to add new features that are not permitted under the original blockchain protocol such as the fork from BTC to BCH—­Bitcoin Cash—­in August 2017, the first famous fork we mentioned earlier. A 51 percent attack is an inherent flaw in the original blockchain structure, in that it cannot block the miners controlling a majority of the network’s computing power from working together to essentially prevent those transactions they don’t want, and even reversing previous ones. Although in practice this is quite rare, there was a successful attack on the Ethereum network in June 2016, when a single entity was able to control around 60 percent of the mining power. After much acrimony, this was resolved by creating a second famous fork. Unfortunately, there remains a small, but real risk this will occur again. Start-­ups with concentrated ownership, and entities that have seen a massive decrease in the value of their coins are most at risk.

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The Future of the Blockchain While the blockchain concept is readily understandable, building the underlying protocols has proved to be much more complex. This results from the breadth of possible applications and the need to balance security with scalability, speed, and energy use. To date, the development of the consensus mechanisms (described earlier), combined with different security protocols, has yet to deliver a solution that works effectively across all use cases. While private and permissioned blockchains have been easier to deliver because they have additional security and speed advantages because they are closed and more limited in scope, public permissionless blockchains, which are open, are still not there. Increased computer processing power, combined with AI and quantum computing, will accelerate the development of improved consensus mechanisms and security. Over time, this should lead to fundamentally successful widescale platforms. Thus, despite early teething problems, the future of blockchains is likely to be a fundamental part of many frontier technologies and the economic and broader societal applications they power.

Smart Contracts Smart contracts are computer programs on a blockchain in which the following terms are met: • A comprehensive set of rules/conditions is defined. • These rules are agreed upon by all parties. • These rules are coded in advance and cannot be changed (without the consent of all involved parties). The smart contract is then recorded onto a blockchain to permanently verify the code and rules are, in fact, not changed.

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The programs execute all coded actions automatically whenever the underlying rules/conditions are met. The importance and potential of smart contracts are huge. They can eliminate much of the trust and human error elements currently present in the execution of a broad array of activities—­ legal contracts, banking transactions, bureaucratic requirements, etc. They can vastly improve the accuracy, speed, and efficiency of many processes by eliminating unnecessary iterations among parties (and their agents). There is no need (or ability, unless built into the program) to rehash or renegotiate terms or actions that have already been determined and agreed upon. Over time, as computers become more powerful and AI systems evolve, smart contracts not only will facilitate interactions among humans but also can set parameters between humans and computers; and this is likely only to be a step toward full computer-­ to-­ computer executions. Not only will computers independently use smart contracts, but they will also be able to create them. A world in which computers initiate transactions, negotiate with one another, and automatically execute is probably not that far away. The metaverse, which is already a fully digital world, could well be the first area of full implementation.

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations “A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: we did it ourselves.” —­Laozi

Like many new ideas, what a DAO is or can be means different things to different people. The name itself primarily used as a piece of jargon. Despite a history that has lurched around considerably, current interest in the area is high; yet there is little sense of what will happen as the concept matures.

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In its purest form, the meaning and vision of a DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization that operates completely independently of ongoing human guidance—­running solely on a computer-­ coded set of transparent, program-­ based rules. In essence, DAOs are smart contracts on steroids. With current technology, the rules, unless specifically coded to change based on predetermined criteria, are static. With the evolution of AI, they have the potential to evolve—­ without new human intervention—­based on the experiential-­based “learning” of the computer over time. To many, a DAO is currently a set of code, changeable over time, but not by “management,” rather by members, who may potentially be anonymous—­such as token holders. In this format, they are a blockchain version of a traditional community or cooperative in which every member can cast an electronic vote on decisions to be made in the community. In this form of DAO, the votes are managed, and the decisions are fully executed, by the code on the blockchain and cannot be changed or overruled. This form is very rare. The much more common alternative of a DAO is merely as a digital “voting machine” where the human-­ based executive is bound, legally or morally, to execute the wishes of the token holders. These are the most common today. DAOs, as they evolve, have some clear conceptual advantages: • They force the founders of an organization to put an enormous amount of thought into the initial business plan and governance structures. • Because of the transparency of the rules and the automated execution, they can avoid significant politics and bureaucracy, making them much more efficient. • Depending on how they are originally structured, they can be more consistent, fair, and egalitarian.

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Being able to run an entire organization or community, with a clearly defined mission, a strong structure, decentralized management, and a set of permanently open books is a potentially laudable goal. However, it is hard to achieve perfection, and anything less in a fully automated environment has potentially negative consequences. This is particularly the case with a large number of entangled components; in fact, the mathematics are “factorial.” With four elements, there are 24 (4×3×2×1) interactions, certainly a manageable number; if there are 25 elements, however, this number grows to the following:



(25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1) = 15,511,210,043,331,000,000,000,000options

Imagine a simple DAO with only 200 programmed rules. No current super or quantum computer could calculate the potential outcomes at a single point in time. Factoring in the reality of constant changes in any organization, it is clear a permanently static (rigid) set of defined controls is far from viable. In the future, with massively greater computer power and iterative programming and DAO experiments, this could well change. In the meantime, creating unique protocols for discrete and definable areas within an organization, while establishing a decentralized or democratic voting/decision-­ making process could be very appealing. If achieved, the applications could be used not only in physical world organizations but in the digital world (metaverse) as well, where there is no need to make a physical translation of a digital action. The logic and process could also be used to strengthen the scope and reliability of voting processes at all levels of government. Perhaps a less ambitious and more accurate name would be “DAFs” (for decentralized autonomous functions).

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Tokenization “The sky is full of tokens which speak to the intelligent.” —­Hugh Miller

Although most people have heard of tokens, few are aware of the breadth and depth of their uses today. Even fewer are likely to have focused on why and how they are becoming a massive force for change (as a disruptive technology) across the entire global economy. They can help provide data and asset protection, increase transactional efficiency, lower costs, increase liquidity, facilitate either/both decentralization and globalization, and, in different circumstances, both improve transparency or assist in anonymity. And their potential for growth is certainly exponential. In the digital world, they can form the backbone in the purely digital or in the interactive one between the digital and physical (digital twinning). And the list of uses will continue to grow. A token is simply the translation and representation of something in the real world in a way that can be digitally understood and used by a computer. In one form or another, they have been used since the inception of the computing industry. It is a digital mapping (i.e., mathematically derived representation) of either data or assets from a “form” that is potentially vulnerable or cumbersome into one that is more secure and easily transferable.

Types of Tokens Being potentially useful in so many domains has meant a broad range of tokens has emerged. A whole jargon has followed like the word cryptocurrency, which can cover any token type or none, depending on who is using the term. Some of the terms are clear; however, much is inconsistent, constantly changing, largely intractable, and very confusing. Following are a few types of

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tokens that might be helpful to know about in navigating the world of tokenization. Please note the caveat—­the whole industry is in a state of constant flux, so what is relevant today may no longer be so tomorrow. Although there are many different token uses, their entire universe can currently be split into two overarching categories—­ fungible tokens and nonfungible tokens (NFTs). Fungible tokens have two consistent characteristics: • They can be subdivided into any number of slices, each of which will always have exactly the same value. • Even though the information comprising every token on a specific blockchain will be unique, these tokens are designed to be fully exchangeable with one another. NFTs are unique and nonreplaceable. They can be used as digital certificates of ownership, rights, or digital twins. Each NFT is one of a kind and can be used to represent unique assets that cannot be subdivided at the token level and cannot be substituted/exchanged for another token. The ability to identify an object (be it physical or digital) and track it on the blockchain (either as a single item or as a series of items) creates an enormous range of opportunities. NFTs have huge growth potential both in the real/physical world and in the virtual world/metaverse. A simple example of an NFT would be a designated seat in a specific box at the U.S. Open Tennis, whereas a fungible token equivalent would be a general admission ticket that provides no differentiated privileges among holders.

Functional Types and Uses of Tokens In addition to purely computer-­specific tokens for operating blockchains, usually referred to as utility tokens, there are many other token types.

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The Assuring and Securing of  Data and Information  In this area, a token is a set of data that has neither specific meaning nor any direct relationship to a set of words, numbers, code, or images that are potentially sensitive and could benefit from advanced protection and application. The purpose is to allow an organization to eliminate sensitive personal and/or payment data from its own systems and substitute a verified and undecipherable, anonymized, or derivative token that is stored separately and securely in the Cloud. A good example would be the protection of credit card information. Most times, one provides credit card information over a secure system that is converted into a token—­ the only similarity to one’s card being the last four numbers (the rest is an entirely unrelated string). Tokenization is used to protect many forms of personal data and to comply with mandated privacy regulations in many domains (finance, healthcare, public sector, etc.). Unlike encryption,  tokenization does encrypt the original data but instead removes it entirely and exchanges it for a randomly generated token. It is important to understand that tokenization is not a security system designed to thwart attacks on a network. Attacks do and will continue to happen. What tokenization does achieve is to make any stolen data worthless, as the tokens themselves contain no valuable, usable information. This will be even more important once quantum computing comes of age.

Financial Instrument (Security/Equity/Bond) Tokens  These are a wrapper or derivative representing the legal ownership of a digital asset, which can represent a physical asset. Sometimes referred to as security tokens, they have the same regulatory framework and ownership rights as traditional securities and are exchangeable (fungible). They need not be tied to the blockchain platform on which they are created, and like equity, their value may rise or fall with the underlying asset’s performance.

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Tokens represent an efficient and flexible way of holding a broad range of these types of assets. To the extent they are fully exchangeable, they would probably fall under the definition of a security token. However, as the market develops, NFTs can offer a new way to customize ownership individually. Today, there already are dif­ferent classes and/or tranches of securities (e.g., equities with different voting rights or preferences, CMOs that have tranches with differing seniority and economics, etc.). The number of these tranches is constrained, however, by the practical and regulatory complexity and cost of offering them. NFTs are a way of allowing a limitless number of ways unique holders can own a given security in different forms. Investors can be offered differentiated sets of rights, liquidity, timing, size, etc., and all can be simply tracked through the blockchain and executed with smart contracts. Asset Tokens  There are two types of asset tokens: those backed by tangible assets and those backed by digital assets. Tangible assets include gold (or other precious metals), real estate, artwork, antiques, jets, yachts, racehorses, sports teams, and even airplane tickets; and the list is rapidly growing. These tokens can be individually or fractionally owned and represent a simple and secure way of owning and tracking the asset. Of those representing digital assets, there are two main categories: • Real-­world ownership of a digital medium such as art, poetry, music, or film. NFTs have already morphed digital art from insignificance, with items selling for a few cents, into a fast-­growing market where digital art sometimes trades for hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of dollars—­and a market where for the first time ever, artists have the option to be automatically reimbursed for future sales.

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• Ownership and transfer fully within a digital world. Just as assets, goods, and services can be bought, sold, lent against, tracked, and verified in the physical world using NFTs, the same can happen in the virtual world. Those not heavily involved in gaming or the metaverse are probably not fully (or even partially) aware of the amount of time, effort, and hard currency that is spent in the virtual world. It is currently estimated more than $200 billion is spent annually, and the number is growing. For many, this is not simply a form of entertainment; it is a way of life and, more recently, a source of income and a form of investment. Just as in real life, in games objects can be bought, sold, or traded. This could range from an item of clothing selling for a few dollars, to “weaponry” or articles of magic costing hundreds or thousands of dollars, to real estate in choice locations within “worlds” in the metaverse that have reached multimillion-­dollar sales prices. One reason the prices have been able to rise (even though this probably has been a bubble) is the items are tokenized, registered on the blockchain and guaranteed to be unique. Their value for collectors is no less tangible and protectable than the value of a baseball card is in the real world. All is a matter of supply and demand.

Currency Tokens  These are designed to act like a traditional fiat currency, but without going through central authorities or needing to use intermediaries (banks or payment processors, etc.). These can be Bitcoins or stable coins for transacting with any merchant that accepts them, or they can be traded for other tokens and fiat currencies through digital wallets.

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Transactional Tokens • Services. Tokens can be issued by a company (or perhaps even an individual) and represent the ability to acquire general future services and/or products or contractually specified ones. • Goods. These are designated primarily for use rather than storing value. The list is extraordinarily long and comprehensive, and they can be useful for many reasons. Currently, the most visible (and probably valuable) is for items that benefit from being conclusively authenticated, such as shipments of agricultural products with specific designations (organic, non-­GMO, Fair Trade, etc.), or goods that are frequently illegally duplicated (or faked), such as watches, handbags, wines, and even potentially deadly items (if faked) like airplane parts. Participation/Governance Tokens  These give their owners a right and responsibility to participate in the growth, evolution, and decision-­making processes of the group, community, or platform they are tied to. It is expected they will be used in community engagement, DAOs, and the digitization of areas where the community is part of the voting structure. They can be tradeable and fungible, such as general access to clubs or open communities, or nonfungible and non-tradeable, such as citizenship and voting; and others may be in between, like exclusive club memberships where some access restrictions exist.

The Benefits of Tokenization In many situations, tokens offer a viable and often easier alternative to the way things are done today. By wrapping traditional assets into a token with a smart contract, there can be increased transactional efficiency, lower costs, enhanced liquidity, improved

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efficiency, and diminished fraud. Much of this evolves from eliminating (or reducing) laborious human processes that are prone to errors, miscommunication, and fraud: • Improving efficiency and scalability. • Reducing costs by streamlining the back offices of banks, insurance companies, administrators, and regulatory authorities, among many others. • Simplifying accounting and auditing functions. • Automating know your customer (KYC) and anti-­money laundering (AML) processes. • Reducing operational complexity and paperwork (e.g., collecting signatures, wiring funds, mailing checks, etc.). • Lowering transactional fees by removing many of the middlemen involved. • Decreasing the use of attorneys in many repetitive, process-­ related functions. • Enabling real-­time buyer and seller settlement on secondary markets. • Automating dividends, interest, and many other forms of payments. • Facilitating proxy voting. • Improving the transparency and accuracy and competitiveness of asset valuations. Transparency  The combination of the blockchain with tokenization creates a consistent method of verifying and tracking data and preventing it from being tampered with. This is an excellent framework for documenting and tracking ownership of assets in a fully transparent way. It enhances efficiency in

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reporting and auditing and can limit fraud, mispricing, and unethical manipulation. It could also be used to limit tax evasion and money laundering, both locally and on a cross-­border basis. Enhancing Fractional Ownership  This could bring significant additional liquidity, especially in traditionally illiquid assets (such as art, real estate, and collectibles) by opening the market to smaller investors who currently are not able to access to these types of investments. Historically, a combination of high frictional costs (legal, administrative, etc.), regulatory restrictions (to protect the more vulnerable investor), and limited accessibility to many opportunities restricted ownership to only “well-­ heeled” investors with the connections, capital, and ability to hold for the longer term. Through tokenized, fractional ownership, a wide range of investors anywhere in the world can own a piece of an almost unlimited number of identifiable physical, financial, or virtual assets. Properly organized, this will benefit buyers and sellers alike. For example, the NFT art market has been attracting a new class of investors who created a new and valuable market almost overnight. Liquidity  As more people acquire smaller stakes, many assets that are currently hard to sell could significantly benefit from the increased liquidity (and transparency on the blockchain). For example, an owner of prime real estate who wants to raise cash, instead of going through the laborious effort of finding a single specialized buyer, could market it to a broader set of investors who might just want to own a fraction of it. Another potential benefit is that tokens can be bought/sold and settled 24/7/365, avoiding the market-­hour constraints of the traditional financial system. This is particularly significant across time zones, with tokens creating a potentially much more viable global market, as

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long as the liquidity is fully assessed and assured. Having said this, low-­volume trading at off-­hours could have the negative effect of distorting pricing and increasing volatility. Regulation  Although not without major hurdles, tokens could be fully regulated and thereby more suitable as investments to a more diverse investment audience. Blockchain technology and smart contracts allow ownership law and regulation to be written directly into a token, allowing regulators to govern them proactively. In this way, a token could regulate, and govern itself, even managing its own execution. A token could be programmed to verify those who can buy or sell it, allowing built-­in restrictions on specific groups or individuals; this assures issuers their tokens will be held only by investors authorized for that token and asset. Another feature could be restricting the token transfer during closed periods. As an example, under SEC Reg D (a regulation waiving the need for certain companies and entrepreneurs to register securities with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to sell them), companies are exempted from registration for the offer and sale of up to $10,000,000 of securities in a 12-­ month period.5 This can be encoded into a token. The entire audit trail from the token creation and compliance processes could be uploaded to a recorded and fully auditable blockchain throughout its lifetime. This would drastically reduce compliance procedures (and costs) for regulators, issuers, and buyers alike. It would also eliminate much of the risk of human error (or deliberate malfeasance). A natural follow-­on would be to offer different classes of tokens with different rights and rules.

5 “Regulation D (SEC),” Wikipedia (Wikimedia Foundation, November 8, 2022), https://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Regulation_D_(SEC).

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Global Instrument  Once properly understood and structured, authorities from different jurisdictions could implement global token standards to support their use. This would enable issuers to access an international pool of capital and target a larger potential investor base. Once tokens are globally available, they can theoretically be traded by anyone with an Internet connection (within regulatory limits) and, therefore, widen access to capital markets for companies and investors alike. Moreover, for assets that are sensitive and cannot be owned in their entirety by foreign holders (e.g., real estate, defense, etc.) or where ownership and use are ideally separated—­ such as investment residential property—­ fractional ownership might be permissible. In this way, the investment market for these assets could be enhanced, without compromising local legal/social restrictions or limiting their use. Enforcement can also be programmed into tokens and be transparent to authorities on the blockchain.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency “When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.” —­Warren Buffett

While cryptocurrency is currently consumer-­facing, over time its greatest value is likely to be as an enabling behind-­the-­scenes technology that could allow major advances in the global monetary system. It could well end up as a subset of computer tokenization. And though Bitcoin is a product in itself, it shares the same technological principles. Probably not coincidentally, Bitcoin, the blockchain pioneer in the cryptocurrency space, was originally registered in October 2008 and officially launched in January 2009 as the global financial

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system was undergoing a major crisis. The “named” founder was Satoshi Nakamoto, a pseudonym whose real identity has yet to be unearthed, even with the incredible search capacity of AI and other frontier technologies. Satoshi’s original holding (wallet) of one million Bitcoin has never witnessed a single transaction. While Bitcoin is the foundation of the cryptocurrency revolution and accounts for a large part of its financial market share, most of the innovation and potential disruption is now coming from other tokens. Nonetheless, because of its historic significance, widespread name recognition, and having the largest market cap, it is important to understand how Bitcoin started and how it has evolved. Bitcoin was created with the primary goal of establishing a lower-­friction digital cash system that removed many third-­party intermediaries that have historically “clogged” the digital monetary transfer system by charging high fees (resulting from their need for profit and to cover their high costs for reconciliation, KYC and other security measures, fraud and hacking prevention, and other standard financial institutional overheads). Perhaps even more important is this blog post from Satoshi Nakamoto: “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve.”6 The underpinnings of Bitcoin were brilliant; nevertheless, there remain both systemic and user constraints/risks:

6 “Satoshi Nakamoto’s Quotes on Trust -­Trusted Third Parties,” Blockchain News, February 13, 2020, https:// blockchain.news/wiki/satoshi-­nakamotos-­quotes-­on-­trust-­trusted-­third-­parties.

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Structure • All Bitcoin transactions are verified and recorded on a cryptographically very sophisticated decentralized database called a blockchain (described previously). • The record of all transactions is open and freely available to anyone in the general public. • The blockchain is not controlled by an organization, a board, or an individual. It is based (in theory) on the rigorously maintained mutual trust of the participants themselves by enforcing a protocol that creates valuable incentives to protect it and is so arduous and costly that it dissuades those who might want to corrupt it. • The total number of Bitcoin was limited at inception to 21 million to prevent inflation. Bitcoins are minted at a fixed rate of one every 10 minutes. • The process to protect Bitcoin is called mining and is carried out by computers. It involves not only the recording of transactions that would require trivial amounts of effort and not dissuade any ne’er-­do-­well from participating, but also the solving of very complex “artificial” problems that require almost incomprehensibly enormous amounts of computational power.

Systemic Constraints • The process is deliberately designed to be laborious, and the predefined encoded time to “clear” greatly limits the number of possible transactions. • It is pseudonymous, rather than anonymous, meaning those conducting transactions can often be tracked (this could be a problem or benefit, depending on your perspective).

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• So long as traditional energy sources are used, the world is in a green energy deficit, and computer technology relies on the same processing power and techniques, the process is both extremely costly and unecological. It can also favor mining in low-­energy cost jurisdictions that may not be politically stable. • Because of a flaw in the original protocol, if miners band together and achieve more than 50 percent control of Bitcoin, whether they choose to capitalize on the anomaly or not, they can corrupt the incorruptibility of the blockchain.

User Constraints The whole process of trading cryptocurrency is either cumbersome, risky, or both. As an investor, there is nothing physical to hold; there is only a record on the blockchain. The problem is how to access it. This is done by using a very long and secure password, known as a key. The problem is the key needs to be sufficiently complex that remembering it is not feasible. As such, there needs to be somewhere safe to store the key; this is called a wallet. There are three types of wallets, each with its own problems: • Paper wallets. A paper wallet is where the key is physically written down and stored in a secure location. This is the most secure since there is no way it can be hacked; however, it also means transacting is limited to where the wallet is located. Carrying it around or having multiple copies dramatically decreases the level of security. • Hardware wallets. A hardware wallet, such as a thumb drive, can also be stored in a secure location. A hardware wallet has the same issues as the paper one but provides easier digital connectivity; however, if the hardware is corrupted, one might permanently lose access to the key.

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• Software wallets. This is where some form of a program or app allows for digital access. This is certainly the most convenient but is the least secure, as it can most easily be hacked or become compromised. The reason the security of the key is so important is because of the decentralized (and thereby unregulated) nature of the structure. Even once you set up your own account and wallet, if you lose the keys or your wallet is hacked, there is no way ever to retrieve your assets—­in other words, a total loss. To address the transactional complexity for users, exchanges have evolved that greatly facilitate trading; however, these have an even greater vulnerability to outside hacking and the behavior of those managing the exchange; and, for the same reasons as exist with a personal wallet, once the Bitcoins are gone, the vast majority are gone forever. When Mt. Gox (an exchange that, at peak, controlled 70 percent of all Bitcoin transactions) was hacked, of the estimated 650,000 to 850,000 Bitcoins stolen, fewer than 200,000 were recovered. With the failure of FTX, its customers appear to have lost almost everything, also causing major ripple effects throughout the cryptocurrency market. Although the primary original use was as a means of exchange, Bitcoin has become more a store of value or even a speculative instrument. Anyone in a developing nation who used Bitcoin as a more “stable” way to literally buy their daily bread may no longer afford to do so because of its inherent volatility. Moreover, the major exchanges and Bitcoin holders (known as whales) exert undue influence on the network, meaning the price is not fully market-­driven. Ethereum has the second-­largest token by market capitalization. It is also currently the most actively used. ETH, Ethereum’s coin, remains a speculative asset, but its business model is to create a world computer. Instead of retaining complete control

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of its blockchain for the sole use of its currency, it has taken the approach of allowing other companies to set up ledgers, or even new cryptocurrencies (through smart contracts), that can also use it. In many ways, this resembles the early days of competition between Microsoft and Apple. Microsoft dominated the world, not because of the quality of its software but because it offered open-­source programming that allowed most of the world to link into its operating systems. Apple, to retain its technical and niche superiority, for a long time refused outside applications. The majority of users around the world, and eventually Apple, too, understood the effectiveness of Microsoft’s approach.

Other Cryptocurrencies Although Bitcoin (and BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remain the market leaders, there are more than 20,000 other traded tokens, often referred to as cryptocurrencies. As with start-­ups in any field, they represent an enormous number of use cases and business ideas. Some have always been speculative or fraudulent, others only became so over time; some relate to projects with bad business models or nondifferentiated technology; others are underfollowed, thereby easy for an individual/group to control. The exchanges on which many are traded are directly under the spotlight of many regulators and are likely to face strong resistance or even full siege—­especially after the failure of FTX. As much as advocates claim otherwise, it is still truly the Wild, Wild West in the cryptocurrency world. Having said this, the ingenious and ground-­breaking token reward model has created some incredible communities and proven platforms. Yet the model has suffered from the significant downside of many tokens being held principally for speculation and profit. The immediate future remains uncertain.

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For example, even with Ethereum’s innovative business model, its volatile token price (and ETH is the only payment mechanism allowed on the Ethereum network) has at times made transactions on the network extremely expensive and ultimately unaffordable for all but speculators. Additionally, blockchain start-­ups that hold ETH for use on the Ethereum network may find large parts of their treasury wiped out in a crash, as happened in 2018. Furthermore, the exchanges, which profit by encouraging trading and speculation, greatly exacerbate this trend. Even though the future of many exchanges is in doubt, and many have failed, their actions strongly impact the direction of the cryptocurrency industry.

The Future of the Cryptocurrency Industry Bitcoin was originally created as a tamper-­proof, decentralized, and unregulated global currency outside the control of governments and central banks. The evolution of Ethereum, those using the Ethereum ledger, and many other models using a host of independent consensus algorithms represent a major diversion from the original Bitcoin tenets. There have been numerous frauds, sources of wanton speculation, and simple power grabs. Currently, most of the cryptocurrency industry is transacted through a very small number of extremely large and as yet ­unregulated exchanges that, being unregulated, make their own rules. Furthermore, a massively disproportionate percentage of all token holdings sit in the hands of a small number of “­cryptocurrency whales.” At this point, the only proven effective use of tokens has been for speculation, which is far from their most useful potential application and has somewhat derailed the ultimate reason for having tokens—­either tokenizing assets and services or facilitating the operation of a blockchain. In the meantime, it has led to both enormous wealth creation and destruction.

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Now, as the major exchanges and larger players, while fending off the unprecedented regulatory assault, are striving to maintain their enormous profitability and control, they are trying to define—­on their terms—­some form of regulation for the entire industry. It appears inherently contradictory to have a decentralized token world in which the on-­and off-­ramps are fully centralized and regulated. Even if there is a model that works, the overall value proposition of cryptocurrency, in its current form, is far from proven and has serious flaws. It is difficult to see how the existing industry either becomes regulated (where there is confidence in the underlying values and consistency with its underlying goals) or finds a way to effectively decentralize and deliver the utility the tokens are designed for. There needs to be a fully reconceptualized approach—­ Cryptocurrency 2.0. This would, most likely, not be a single monolith. Rather, it could take on a number of forms: • A fully regulated stablecoin, operating as a traditional asset class. Using blockchain and tokenization could create enormous efficiencies and benefits within the current market structure. However, the further centralization of power this represents is a concern. • Fully digital versions of a more stable cryptocurrency for use in digital domains, where transactions are purely digital and apply solely to digital assets. • A renaissance of well-­designed and effective unregulated and decentralized tokens and cryptocurrencies. Learning from the numerous errors of prior incarnations, they might still be able to contribute to a useful and valuable financial system that operates outside the traditional boundaries of the accepted financial world. Clearly, this would require a complete reset and a host of new players.

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Key Takeaways Blockchain technology was born out of the 2008 financial crisis and launched in January 2009. While there might be a debate over what the blockchain and tokenization have or have not achieved in these last 14 years, we see blockchain as an enabling technology—­a protocol that should simply become a part of the system, similar to Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP), which enables devices to communicate on the Internet. Blockchain and tokens should become ubiquitous and a key, yet mostly unseen, function of the operations of other frontier technologies. Thus, while blockchain and tokenization might appear to be foundational, we classify them more as enabling and accelerating (i.e., the plumbing) for the foundational technologies we described previously. Preschool and primary-­school children are taught to rely on facts and rules, while analysis and deeper thinking follow later. Foundational technology is likely to progress similarly. While the next iterations will rely on blockchain and tokens, they will quickly progress to analysis and “thinking,” thereby potentially making blockchain more of a transitional catalyst to the continued evolution of consumer-­facing hardware technologies: • Blockchain originated as the backbone that allowed Bitcoin and then other cryptocurrencies to operate on a decentralized basis. Cryptocurrencies have experienced their ups and downs; however, the conceptual structure of blockchain—­ transparency with immutability—­has emerged as a potentially extremely powerful tool in the vast array of applications. • The original blockchain operating protocols are extremely inefficient, leading to the exploration of many alternative

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offshoot protocol mechanisms. The paradox of blockchains, however, is that the more efficient they become, the less secure they are likely to be. • Smart contracts simplify and remove the possibility of human error (and influence) from an extensive array of negotiated solutions. Multiple parties can agree on a fixed set of terms and record them on the blockchain, where they can be automated. The programs then execute all coded actions automatically whenever the underlying rules/conditions are met. The ability to replace jobs in law, accounting, and government alone are breathtaking. • Decentralized autonomous organizations allow entire organizations to run without human input; they are essentially smart contracts on steroids. Their limitations lie in their reliance on initial coding to cover all possible eventualities. As with blockchain, the more “flexible” they become, the more they stray from their original goals. • Tokenization allows the translation of real-­world information and operations into a computer-­readable and controllable format. It has the promise to allow the efficient integration and operation of many asset classes by computer systems. • Cryptocurrencies were originally established for both philosophical and practical reasons. Their design was to allow efficient transfers among the widest possible group of users, without the inefficiencies and potentially negative control of centralized authorities. For many reasons they have diverted from those goals and are best known as enablers of speculation and fraud. The potential for decentralized digital currencies to improve transactions and allow for self-­custody in certain situations and communities is enormous.

CHAPTER

3

Consumer-­Facing Hardware Technologies “Robots are interesting because they exist as a real technology that you can really study—­you can get a degree in robotics—­and they also have all this pop-­culture real estate that they take up in people’s minds.” —­Daniel H. Wilson

T

echnologies that create and distribute physical items face an incremental hurdle. They not only need to continually upgrade their software but must also integrate a production element. Unlike software, this can be done neither instantaneously nor at minimal cost. Redesigning, re-­ tooling, and installing upgraded equipment is often an expensive, time-­consuming, and onerous process. As such, although the capability might already

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exist to achieve many exciting outcomes, the pace of implementation could well lag considerably. As such, they seem to suffer from Amara’s Law (an overestimate of technology in the short term but an underestimate in the long term) more than software-­ only technologies. However, they are an integral and vital part of the future because they enable and perform physical tasks that humans cannot. Propelled by advances in frontier technologies, they will continue to generate new capabilities and efficiencies. These technologies include robotics, additive manufacturing (3D and 4D printing), Internet of Things, and augmented and virtual reality—­the access points to the metaverse. The rapid development of more physical technologies like robotics and automation is vital, both independently and (even more significantly) when combined with cognitive ones. Evolving from the Industrial Revolution and replicating a human’s physical strength and abilities, these technologies themselves are not integral components of the Cognitive Revolution. Nonetheless, when combined with other frontier technologies, they are among the most important physical facilitators and, as such, important to understand. They also share the same underlying fundamental paradox of all the technologies—­they represent the best humanity can achieve while putting in play some of the greatest risks of all time. Who or what controls them has involved very little forethought, leaving us today with extremely limited effective and/or independent oversight. Not all robotics involve automation, and certainly not all automation involves robotics; yet the terms are often used interchangeably. Perhaps the confusion lies in the overarching purpose of both, to better execute tasks or entire jobs that had traditionally been done by humans. Although there is growing overlap, the two fields remain quite different.

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Robotics Robotics is a marriage among various fields of engineering (mechanical, electrical, biological, as well as others) and computer science. Its primary focus is on creating machines that can either assist humans in a broad range of functions or completely replace them. The fantasy for some, nightmare for others, would be truly android robots undetectable as machines. While this outcome is clearly a staple of science fiction and fantasy literature, the growing collaboration among far-­ranging technologies is shortening the timeline to make it a reality; and, the serial disruptor Elon Musk has thrown his hat into the ring. Although many of the greatest advances have occurred over the past few decades, the first known example of applied robotics dates to a mechanical representation of a human 10 centuries before the Common Era in China; in Greece, a steam-­operated pigeon flew around 420 BCE. Clearly, by the time of Leonardo da Vinci, the concept of robotics had become somewhat less uncommon; but it wasn’t until the turn of the twentieth century that the field truly began to make headway. The pace of development has been rapid on the mechanical side, although the “android” characteristics still have a long way to go. Robots have historically been considered best used for the following functions: • Repetitive actions that can be accomplished fast, accurately, and cost-­effectively. • Activities requiring considerable strength. • Processes working with very small objects, such as computer chips or even atoms (nanofactories).

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• Dealing with situations that are unpleasant, impossible, or life-­threatening for humans, where there are temperatures (heat or cold), atmospheric conditions (no oxygen, deep ocean, outer space, etc.) or toxic materials (chemical, biological, nuclear etc.) beyond human tolerance. The genesis and acceleration of robotics have been highly dependent on commercial, manufacturing operations. Asia ( Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and, in recent decades, China) dominated the market. As of 2022, there are an estimated three million industrial robots in use around the world, with the highest usage in the following countries (in order of density): South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Germany, Sweden, Hong Kong, United States, Taiwan, China, and Denmark. Industrial use remains a cornerstone, with continued solid growth globally. Historically most robots had single or limited functions. Today, with the evolution of information technology as well as more sophisticated manufacturing techniques (e.g., 3D and 4D printing), the development of multifunctional and adaptable robots is accelerating. As in many other fields, where hardware and software systems were unique to the individual company developing them, today there is a greater need and demand for robots that can communicate not only with humans but also with other robots conducting linked or integrated operations. Energy freedom will give these robots even more autonomy. Commercial applications exist across a broad range of industries. The following areas are ones that will continue to grow rapidly and have far-­ reaching industrial/commercial applications: automotive and transportation, electronics/computer technology, warehousing and logistics, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, chemicals/plastics, construction, agriculture, food production, packaging, and delivery, among many others. However, these potentially pale in comparison to many nonindustrial uses:

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• Consumer robots (from toys, appliances, home, care, etc.) • Flying robots (drones—­five million units sold in 2020 alone) • Military robots • Automated vehicles • Subatomic robots (aka nanobots) Historically, the most important components and features of robots were mechanical. The shift toward software and the cognitive is unavoidable and will change the entire landscape of robotics and human existence in general.

Industrial Automation Industrial automation is the use of machinery/equipment, often with digital controls (programs, sensors, etc.) to enhance the production process. There are very few manufacturing industries that have not integrated automation into their processes and overall production lines. The reasons are quite clear. Automated systems do the following: • Increase the speed of production • Decrease costs (labor, energy, waste, etc.) • Increase flexibility (machines don’t work in shifts, do not consider any hours unsociable, and, to date, have yet to unionize, or employ an attorney to sue. . .) • Improve reliability (variation is minimized and flaws more efficiently detected) • Improve safety

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When combined, these can generate higher output and improved profitability. There are four primary types of industrial automation: • Fixed automation. A machine designed to execute a single task repeatedly and efficiently. There are many areas of application, but those most visible are on production lines. • Programmable automation. The functions of a machine can be changed through new coding. Depending on the changes, this can be laborious and require real-­time testing. It is very useful in medium-­to large-­scale customized orders. • Flexible automation. Using machines that are designed to be easily programmed to accommodate flexible production needs. This includes new generation milling machines, lathes, routers, lasers, plasma cutters, etc. • Integrated automation. Where a range of machines and processes are integrated under a digital control system. Amazon’s and Ocado’s new generation of warehouses are a cutting-­edge example. The great leaps forward in technology will continue to improve and spur on automation. There is no turning back. The small entrepreneur, with a differentiated product, a 3D printer, and an effective digital marketing system should be able to prosper; however, it is hard to see scenarios where labor-­intensive, midsize industrial entities can survive. This will have enormous impact on the labor force—­those who remain are likely to be skilled, work in safer environments, and experience less drudgery, but a huge number will no longer be needed.

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Additive Manufacturing (3D and 4D Printing) “Technology is anything that wasn’t around when you were born.” —­Alan Kay (computer scientist)

Additive manufacturing (AM) is the commercial name for 3D and 4D printing—­ the manufacturing of 3D physical objects from a designed computer model usually in layers, in which materials, currently supplied as either a liquid, a powder, or a filament are fused together layer by layer to create a broad range of items. 4D is where the manufactured object can change depending on variations over time in the environment. Although many think this technology is in its infancy, the first actual 3D printing goes back to applied research by Dr. Kodama in 1981. Over the following decade, key patents were filed and extensive research undertaken. The 1990s saw significant advances in materials, production techniques (including engineered human organs), and design ability with the help of integrating CAD with 3D printing. Over the subsequent two decades the industry flourished, with significant impact on a broad range of industries. Today, we stand on the threshold of potential exponential growth in the power and use of additive manufacturing, especially with tokenized licensing models or intelligent control systems (like ChatGPT could become). Industrial uses already include home building, a wide range of medical applications, model and prototype development, auto manufacturing, parts of all shapes and sizes, and the list goes on. In fact, there is even widely available open-­source code to allow 3D printers to print 3D printers. For home use, 3D printers can be purchased at prices as low as a standard inkjet printer and are not much bigger in size and format. They can be operated by a standard computer and can print objects in anything from minutes to several hours.

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The range of materials has also expanded dramatically from simple plastics to many different compounds (including waste material, potentially a recycling revolution), with hugely different characteristics (e.g., strength, flexibility, versatility, malleability, design, etc.). Today, the second largest input material for additive manufacturing is metal—­including stainless steel, aluminum, titanium, nickel, bronze, and gold; also available are resins, nylon, carbon fiber, graphite, wood, metal, and concrete, as well as more bio-­friendly materials. The usable list continues to expand every year. Research has progressed in 3D printing so far as to encompass printing food, human tissue, conductive metals, multi-­shape memory polymer, and even small organic molecules. The range of products is already quite extraordinary: • At home. 3D printing has the ability, at low cost, to design and make toys, household objects, and basic DIY materials. • Education. It creates a whole new aspect of hands-­on education, which is particularly useful in STEM curricula. • Art and jewelry. It is already opening up a whole range of opportunities using a wide array of materials. • Prototyping. What CAD did to drafting, 3D printing is doing to CAD, allowing for easy creation of a wide range of prototypes to lower the costs and increase the efficiency of the preproduction process. • Manufacturing. It is applicable to a wide variety of applications, given the ease and speed to produce onsite a large number of components and end products; for example, many contracting or repair businesses can now replicate or customize parts immediately (rather than be subject to the vagaries and costs of the supply chain).

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• Construction. Building elements, and even entire homes and their contents, have been created using 3D printing). • Medical. Many applications already exist in prosthetics, as customization is easy to achieve. Bioprinting for organ replacement, pharmaceutical testing, or even customized pill dosing has enormous future potential. • Energy. Printing of solar panels is a starting point, but 3D printing has the ability to greatly expedite many aspects of energy production and distribution. The implications in remote, off-­grid locations are particularly exciting. The evolution of next-­generation technology, such as 4D printing, and related materials that are able to react and adapt to changing environmental conditions—­heat, light, pressure, electromagnetics, electrochemistry, etc.—­ is even more extraordinary, as it allows for significantly more sophisticated and diverse applications. The implications are truly enormous at every stage of the supply chain: what is produced, how it is produced, where it is produced, and how it arrives at its final destination. Combined, not only does additive manufacturing increase the breadth of products, but it can also dramatically decrease production and distribution costs, facilitate just-­in-­time production/delivery in smaller-­scale operations, decrease energy use in production and transportation, and lower waste generation. Local manufacturing using waste material could completely revolutionize logistics, recycling, and waste management. If you layer in this enormous potential with advances in other frontier technologies such as AI, blockchain, tokens, IoT, and always-­on communications, the implications are significant. Just imagine the potential to decrease cross-­border reliance, adding an entire new theoretical/practical wrinkle to the fundamental

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international economic theories surrounding comparative advantage and globalization. This could well result in longer-­term tectonic shifts in international trade, alliances, power politics, and where people can live and work.

Internet of Things IoT involves a rapidly growing network of devices and physical objects (not normally considered computers—­for the moment at least) that through hardware, software, sensors, and other forms of technology collect a broad range of data and are able to communicate and interact directly with other devices and programs without any direct human intervention. Although its name might indicate otherwise, IoT today does not even require an Internet connection to function. IoT is another of the most obvious examples of something impacting billions of lives every day, with many (if not most) unaware of the overall field and the degree of its use and growth. The following is far from an exhaustive list of general fields and specific applications of IoT applications in use today: • Applications specifically designed to learn preferences, connect with other devices, and provide solicited and unsolicited solutions to human users. These are devices such as Apple Siri, Amazon Alexa, Google Assistant, Microsoft Cortana, Roku, etc. • Wearable data-­ collecting technology. This technology interacts with other “smart” sources and provides usable output—­smartphones, smart watches, Fitbits, Oura Rings, etc. • Building/home automation. This includes both control devices that are integrative (Google Nest, Amazon Echo, Apple Home Kit, Control4 Home, Samsung Smart Things, Savant Pro, Crestron, Sonos, etc.) and specific individual devices that are independently able to function through

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IoT—­TVs, air conditioners, lights, ovens, refrigerators (a refrigerator capable of automatically reordering on your behalf), and ever-­increasing others including toothbrushes and, in Japan, toilets and bathtubs as well. • Elder care and general health monitoring. This includes wearable sensors such as Fitbit, home-­installed sensors that operate 24/7, diet and medication monitors, and individual devices like smart hearing aids, smart beds, pacemakers, etc. • Transportation. Automobiles come most readily to mind. This comprises two major groups: first, users (GPS, internal vehicle comfort, communication and safety, and the ineluctable trends toward self-­driving and fully autonomous vehicles); and second, outside governmental and commercial entities (centralized traffic monitoring and control, toll collection, automatic ticketing for transgressions, insurance company monitoring, remote parking control, fleet management, road assistance, etc.). Equally important are rail, air, and maritime applications. • Logistics. The ability to plan, monitor, and execute production, distribution, and feedback loops iteratively is indeed powerful. Communication among individual elements that have specific requirements (e.g., the temperature of a bottle of wine, food, frozen goods, or medicine during transportation), the means of manufacturing and/or delivery (production lines, distribution centers, delivery vehicles) and with central headquarters is already extremely sophisticated and growing rapidly. • Energy management. Monitoring, control, and optimization of energy are in their early evolutionary stages; they occur both at the point of consumption (lamps, lighting systems, HVAC, etc.) and in distribution (grid management, individually generated solar integration, etc.).

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• Military. The applications are innumerable and cover every imaginable aspect of overall logistical management and mission/­battle planning and execution. There is also interaction both within and among these various fields. Simply stated, more and more devices either are designed specifically to interact with one another or simply are capable of doing so. As with so many of these technologies and domains, we are experiencing a multiplicative effect among the three powerful and real growth factors: • Moore’s Law (overall doubling of computational power). • Metcalfe’s Law (network effect). • The exponential internal increase of sophistication within each individual device. The implications of the growth in IoT are both exciting and, in many ways, quite scary. IoT will equip other frontier technologies with enormous resources, fault tolerance, and independence. Frontier technologies’ ability, through Internet-­ connected devices, to identify or predict problems immediately will lead to issues being corrected before they become serious, thereby achieving close-­to-­perfect uptime. The power, however, far exceeds mere issue identification. The iterative impact of data collection, management, and solution application on machine learning is extraordinary. It is going on now, being used and exploited by a broad range of organizations—­both public and private—­but without any predefined set of rules or limitations. What is left of individual privacy is being eroded at an alarming pace. There are, unfortunately, no easy solutions—­particularly since there is no consensus or even awareness that anything needs to be solved or, if there is, what that solution might be.

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Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality “That’s the problem with denial. Reality doesn’t care what you think.” —­Gene Hunt (Ashes to Ashes)

These two topics have unifying themes that reflect both the blurring line and growing interdependence between the physical and digital worlds.

Virtual Reality Using headsets or dedicated screens, VR creates a complete interactive digital environment in which users can fully immerse themselves. The experience is a combination of visual, aural, ­tactile, and movement—­with smell and taste not far behind. Although associated by most people with the gaming and entertainment industries, VR’s original use (which goes back to the late 1960s) was for industry and military simulations. And companies like Cap Gemini are evolving them to create an industrial metaverse to remotely operate and fix machinery. It was in the  1990s that commercial, consumer VR began to take off. The problem was and to some extent still is that the quality of the optics wasn’t fantastic, the headsets cumbersome, and the movement experience imperfect and sometimes disorienting. VR, like many other technologies, is a marriage of various disciplines, all of which are important to achieving a successful end product: • Software. Software is the backbone necessary to create the immersion environments and program the actions involved. Improvements in the speed and power of processing, and the miniaturization of chips and related components, have been

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key to developments to date; as these advances continue, the virtual universes and users’ experiences will improve immeasurably. .

• Hardware. The headsets, which were initially heavy, bulky, and uncomfortable, have shrunk and become more ergonomically sound but are still far from streamlined. The direction is toward comfortable wireless glasses or contact lenses, but major technological hurdles remain in shrinking the necessary chips, cameras, and tracking devices sufficiently. Technology dematerialization is likely to continue to shrink and reformat them faster than we expect. With Apple expected to release its first headset this year, the era of well-­ designed and easy-­to-­use devices with integrated software is likely to arrive. The other potential hardware gateway is in hologram technology, which avoids bulkiness and the nausea caused by today’s headsets. This technology is under development by several start-­ups and various universities. MIT is exploring tensor holography, Google has Project Starline, and Microsoft used the technology to allow one of its executives to appear on stage at the Ignited Conference in 2021. • The haptics. The technological interfaces between real movement and the virtual environment are complex and occur either using sensors that track and deliver actual movement or using special gloves or wiring that provide a much more sophisticated set of connections and vastly enhance reality. R&D is accelerating (as it is in robotics and automation). • AI. Although not a major current factor, as AI continues to evolve, the ability of a VR experience to evolve based on past, current, and anticipated actions and reactions appears quite compelling.

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VR as an integrated technology still lags some others described in this book, largely because of the difficulty delivering low-­cost integrated immersive hardware, but adoption rates are increasing both in the consumer and commercial sectors, including the following: • Video games, movies, rides, concerts. • Evolution of the metaverse—­VR is one of the gateways. • Education at all levels—­VR creates heightened awareness, stimulates interest, and adds commitment. • Training—­NASA, military, anatomical/surgical, architecture/ design, and engineering. • Virtual meetings/conferences. • Digital marketing (e.g., real estate and cosmetics). • Rehabilitation (physical, mental, and age related). As the sophistication increases, so are the likely uses. More sophisticated simulations in custom-­designed rooms (think the Star Trek Holodeck), with advanced sensors, video, etc., are also likely to attract a broad range of users.

Augmented Reality Unlike VR, AR is not designed to replace reality by taking the user somewhere completely different but to add digital input or overlay to the real world. Augmented reality glasses do not block out or obscure anything that is actually going on and do not require the components that make VR headsets problematic. Currently available through either clear or tinted glasses, R&D is already underway for contact lenses and a number of other delivery mechanisms such as holograms. The greatest technological challenges, however, remain in the software. The real-­time access, processing, and

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integration of large amounts of data in four dimensions (more if you include climactic, electromagnetic, olfactory, etc.) and the ability to react to expected or unexpected actions by the user is nontrivial and will benefit from the advances in AI, quantum, photonics, enhanced/faster communication with the Cloud, etc. AR had its consumer origins in the 1990s. It was first used by the military, with gaming and entertainment as the first commercial applications. The evolution so far has been largely business-­ driven, with the initial attempt at broad-­ scale consumer distribution, Google Glass, a resounding failure. Nevertheless, there are now numerous applications available through commercial enterprises that are gaining much more exposure: • Education. Instead of creating a virtual world, AR allows different types of information/data to be overlayed onto an actual experience—­a science experiment, a field trip, etc. • Training and implementation. Unlike VR, where most applications are simulations and can best be used to prepare, AR can be used to gradually increase expertise in implementation. Two examples: ◦◦ A young surgeon, using AR, not only can see all patient data while engaging in surgery but also have clear visual guideposts on tissue, bone, and neural implications of each move in surgery and even have interactive advice from digital sources or other medical experts not located onsite. Medical AR is likely to be one of the fastest growth areas. ◦◦ An airplane mechanic (auto, ship, etc.) can engage in repairs/maintenance of complex machinery, with full certainty of the problems at hand, what all the ancillary parts are, when replacements had previously been made, and also the availability of necessary materials.

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• Navigation. At the very least, AR represents a much better alternative to current GPS systems, because it overlays on the actual surrounding environment, not a facsimile of it. At its most sophisticated, it provides enhancements to those operating sophisticated navigation systems—­ providing pilots with visuals of wind shear, sailors upcoming water swells, etc. Displays where mapping and driving information is overlayed on an automobile’s windscreen have already been available for a decade. • Tourism. Instead of walking around with an earpiece, looking at one’s mobile phone, and receiving select pieces of information on specific sights or artifacts, AR offers the opportunity to have real-­time descriptions of virtually anything while still fully engaged in the experience. • Architecture, design, real estate, urban planning. AR superimposing CAD designs in real locations dramatically enhances the ability to visualize and make appropriate modifications, without wasting resources on modeling or ending up with suboptimal end construction. • Military. The uses are already very broad and growing. • Gaming. Game characters interact live in actual environments. Pokémon Go is an example of early mass adoption. While the use cases between AR and VR are a little blurry, there are more potential short-­term commercial applications in AR than VR. Also, as devices become better and more affordable and large amounts are spent on molding public awareness, there should also be a considerably broader uptake in the consumer market in the medium term, and deservedly so. Overall, industry projections of compounded annual growth over the next 5 years generally exceed 30 percent.

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Key Takeaways The explosion of general purpose frontier technologies will also revolutionize the development of consumer-­ facing hardware technologies, not only through the increased intelligence of their software but also as a result of miniaturization and improved hardware interface. This will make them considerably more usable and affordable. An Apple AR/VR headset targeted for 2023 is likely to accelerate rapid customer adoption and act as a major catalyst for the technology as a whole. Robotics and automation, tracking, tracing, and interacting through IoT, and the merging of the real and the virtual through the metaverse, will also become more seamless. As highlighted throughout this book, massive disruption stems not just from the independent “explosion” of a few key technologies but from their enormous power when combined. Although it might be human nature to look at the amusing failures of the past, extrapolating those to the future is likely to provide many unexpected shocks: • Using mechanical means to enhance and/or replace human functions dates back thousands of years. The 20th century saw massive acceleration in both hardware capabilities and sophisticated software programming. The shift toward cognitive ability in robotics is unavoidable and will quickly change the entire landscape, in many areas, such as industrial, consumer (toys, appliances, home, care, etc.), flying robots (drones), military, automated vehicles and, subatomic (aka nanobots). • The growing sophistication of software automation, using AI and other frontier technologies, combined with voice, visual, and pattern recognition opens up limitless applications and threatens to replace many human roles. Going

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forward, who will need call centers, travel agents, many professional services, or even personal assistants? • The implications, through 3D and 4D printing, of producing a vast number of products, virtually anywhere out of a growing list of materials (including recyclables), at low costs, and with little dependence on the supply chain are immense. Logistics and recycling could be totally revolutionized through the use of waste materials in local manufacturing. These shifts could result in longer-­term tectonic shifts in international trade, alliances, power politics, and where people can live and work. • Internet of Things (IoT) allows virtually every appliance, device, gadget, or utility to communicate with one another. With advances in 5G telecommunications, this will permit miniaturization and reduce the cost of the devices, enabling communication to occur on an ever-­ increasing array of devices at all times. While efficiency benefits (among others) hold considerable promise, the risks of exploitation by a broad range of organizations—­both public and private—­given the absence of predefined rules or limitations are very scary. Do we want to be spied on by our lightbulbs or any other appliance (as our phones and voice assistants are already able to do)? • Although many consider VR and AR to be centered around the gaming/entertainment sectors, they already have a vast range of applications in the fields of education, professional training, the military, healthcare, manufacturing, and many others. Perhaps the most underrated is their role as key access points to the metaverse.

CHAPTER

4

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p until this point, we have explored the fundamental characteristics of interesting, rapidly evolving technologies and some of the processes, services, and products they enable. To illustrate the full scope of potential change, we now broaden our focus to the combined impact of these technologies on a few of those sectors most important to economies and lives around the world. While it may not be as essential to our lives as health and energy, we start with the metaverse as its primary point of access is the hardware used in AR/VR, discussed earlier.

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The Metaverse The metaverse means different things to different people, and because we are currently so early in its evolution, we have no way of predicting what it will become when it grows up (or, perhaps what it will be allowed to be by those who seek to control it). At present, the term Web 3.0 is used interchangeably by many in the space, and digital twins is also commonly used. For the sake of simplicity, we will use metaverse. The only current common agreement is that the term was first used (in print at least) in Neal Stephenson’s 1992 science-­fiction novel Snow Crash as a VR replacement for the current Internet at the time. Perhaps an uncontroversial current description is that of a digitally created alternative world that runs simultaneously alongside our real world—­ one in which we are characterized by “avatars” (self-­chosen digital representatives). That metaverse allows participants to remain anonymous in the real world but create one or more new personas that can publicly “live” any form of story they want, in any universe available on the Internet. These avatars can travel; adventure; have jobs; actually purchase and own real estate, cars, planes, fashionable clothing or jewelry; go to live concerts by real performing artists; and do many things available in the physical world—­but even more that aren’t. In the metaverse, if you leave and re-­enter, the parallel world continues to go on and evolve without you. Regardless of the direction (or directions) in which the metaverse progresses, be it immersive, augmented, virtual, centralized, or decentralized, it has the potential to grow in profound ways that few currently focus on or even understand. To  the extent even a few new concepts come to realization, the metaverse could become an essential and integral part of the global economy, interacting with almost every industry in the physical world and impacting the daily lives of hundreds of

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millions or even billions of people around the world. A report by Citibank called “The Metaverse and Money: Decrypting the Future” suggested the metaverse could represent a global revenue opportunity of as much as $13 trillion by 2030.1 The metaverse currently exists primarily in a 2D world on game users’ screens, although VR, AR, and holography—­ admittedly in their relative infancy—­are beginning a meaningful migration into the 3D world. Currently, there is no single, underlying set of protocols. There are many different service providers, each offering a range of experiences, both free and paid, that allow your avatar to exist and move around in that specific universe. Yet, for now, your avatar in any given universe cannot just up and move to or even connect directly with another avatar in a different one. Each is separately owned and controlled, and there is no “universal passport” that allows migration. The question of whether there should be a single centralized metaverse is interesting; from a practical perspective, however, if one considers the metaverse as a potentially even more complex version of the physical world (i.e., a massive agglomeration of different groups with different agendas), it would be hard to imagine the current system evolving harmoniously into a fully integrated one. It will be interesting to see whether any group will be able to create a set of widely accepted underlying protocols—­as there are for the Internet, which is already restricted and/or limited in many countries of the world—­that will allow everyone to be hosted centrally or in the Cloud. The metaverse is likely to become very important, not just as entertainment but economically and socially as well. Furthermore, it already is, and will continue to be, an innovative

1 “METAVERSE AND MONEY: Decrypting the Future.” Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions , March 2022. https://ir.citi.com/gps/x5%2BFQJT3BoHXVu9MsqVRoMdiws3RhL4yhF6Fr8us8oHaOe1W9smOy1 %2B8aaAgT3SPuQVtwC5B2%2Fc%3D.

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front-­line user of almost all frontier technologies and potentially an invaluable “sandbox” in which to test new applications. Some of the most common visions for the metaverse (each with many subvisions) are as follows: • An immersive 3D Web. A three-­dimensional representation of the physical world or a virtual world in digital form. Rather than the Web being a two-­dimensional screen, it becomes a fully realistic parallel vision that encompasses a limitless number of applications and experiences. • A giant seamless immersive e-­commerce engine. Everyone has a permanent digital global ID that is fully secure but does not reveal any personal or trackable data; through the use of blockchain (or its successor) it will, nonetheless, allow individuals to be held responsible for their actions. Although currently not feasible, there will likely be a fully integrated payment mechanism that will allow all commercial transactions to be both secure and instantaneous, as well as accessible to a much broader set of users, no matter how remote their location or how small their transaction size. As frontier technologies evolve, the scale of this metaverse can become virtually infinite. • Decentralized 3D Web. The goal of the blockchain community is for the metaverse, usually called Web 3.0 by this community, to become a “creator-­led” online set of platforms, where instead of large centralized commercial interests dominating products and information, all individuals would be able to own and control both their own products and data. • A massively enhanced version of immersive multiplayer games. This includes games that exist today and have since the 1990s. Largely because there is no direct overlap with

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the physical world, this is a much less ambitious concept. That said, with evolving VR, AR, and sensory interaction, it is growing and will continue to grow regardless of what happens to the larger-­scale visions previously discussed. The last of these is the most understood by the general public and is already broadly adopted and growing. The others, however, represent a set of possibilities that posit significant structural changes on how technology, businesses, and social structures will operate in the future. A decentralized Web, similar to a fully decentralized and non-governmental regulated currency, is unlikely, given the power of governments and commercial entities with interests to prevent it. This does not mean, however, that there won’t be some shift in power toward the individual or some partially integrated platform. Artists of differing types (visual, musical, fashion, etc.) are already beginning, through NFTs, to gain more control of their creations; there seems little reason, in our opinion, for the ambit not to expand considerably. As to whether an immersive 3D Web or a more commercially focused approach is more likely is hard to predict, as they both have significant merit and existing support. In the long run, it is uncertain whether or not there can be a single metaverse or many (sometimes called multiverses). However, for the foreseeable future, with the diversity of current and developing competing visions, protocols, and platforms, there will be many. Already, apart from the overarching technologies that will be instrumental in any nascent metaverse, such as AI, quantum, blockchain, communications, etc., there are untold thousands of individuals and companies already working on aspects of the metaverse, with products launched or soon to be. The metaverse is unlikely just a passing fad. A growing number of tech companies (from start-­ up to world dominating), major consumer brands, entertainment colossi, and game developers are devoting significant financial and human resources to

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accelerate their commercial visions. Although virtually all public focus on technology has recently been on the GPT phenomenon, the metaverse could certainly be seen as undergoing the third phase of Gartner’s Hype Cycle: 1. Technological Trigger 2. Peak of Inflated Expectations 3. Trough of Disillusionment 4. Slope of Enlightenment 5. Plateau of Productivity Giants such as Meta (formerly Facebook), Microsoft, Google, and Zoom are working toward a metaverse of fully centralized immersive virtual and physical augmented worlds with e-­commerce technologies, using online avatars representing our certified selves. Epic, with its Unreal 5 engine and enormous simulation games such as Fortnite, and Roblox with its hundreds of millions of users see the metaverse as a centralized virtual world solely using online, anonymous avatars. Epic is building immersive metaverses for entertainment only and has demonstrated its “metahuman animator,” which can create a virtually perfect human digital twin in minutes. Important, thriving metaverse environments such as Fortnite, Decentraland, and Sandbox already provide environments where virtual land is bought and sold (for very real prices), and real luxury brands own stores and sell merchandise at prices that parallel the real world, and concerts are attended by millions (Ariana Grande’s concert in Fortnite in August 2021 hosted more than 27 million unique users). Cryptocurrency exchanges and NFT platforms such as Nifty Gateway, Flow, Rarible, and SuperRare seek to be the foundation

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of a fully decentralized virtual world where our online presence is self-­governing and verifiable but with no trackable connection to our actual identities. Perhaps not yet as evolved, infrastructure, telecoms, and Cloud companies are also trying to evolve metaverse businesses that will enable users to take advantage of more of their resources. The economic model of the metaverse, however, is not linked solely to large technology and infrastructure companies. It has the potential to be very broadly inclusive: • Major game/universe developers can make money in many ways. Examples include: through fees to play their games or access different places and services in their worlds; by selling tools or merchandise, which they can do exclusively or in conjunction with desirable outside providers and share in those revenues; by running entertainment venues or casinos; by profiting on their original holdings of their digital assets; or even by acting like governments, levying taxes on user transactions. The list goes on. • Independent coders. These are the paid plumbers, electricians, and entrepreneurs of the system. • Real-­world companies. They have already created digital twins of their businesses to sell goods and/or servicers in the digital world (e.g., real estate agencies, auctioneers, luxury good providers). The most expensive sale of digital land in Decentraland sold for $2.43  million, and a digital Gucci handbag sold in Roblox for $4,100, more than the physical handbag in the real world. Although perhaps a bubble, the odds of continued exponential growth are not insignificant. • Users. Users can make money winning games, gambling, trading digital assets, trading currencies, and completing tasks for others.

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• Real-­world performers. They charge for attendance to their avatars’ shows. • Social media companies. They can profit the same way they do in the physical world. • Brands. Brands are already selling digital and physical digital (phygital) items in metaverses and are expected to ramp this up. • Companies. Companies can use the metaverse to enact simulations in many industries for training purposes. • Attorneys, accountants, and other service providers. These people are necessary to administer the real economics and infrastructure of the digital world. • Communication companies. They charge for information transmission. • Cloud companies. They can bill in many ways for the use of decentralized storage and a set of data management functions. • Energy companies and utilities. These profit from the electricity needs to run digital worlds. • Advertising and PR firms. These types of companies can make money both in attracting users from the real world and in avatar campaigns within the metaverse itself. With the proper vision and governance (and some good fortune), the metaverse can be a pathway to providing real opportunities to many who would otherwise be excluded. In the real world, your nationality, class, education, etc., largely determine your success in life. In the metaverse, an individual can inexpensively and seamlessly create or be part of a world or community of their choosing, with a self-­crafted identity. Unlike in the limited and limiting physical world, new metaverse worlds can be created by anyone at any time, giving the opportunity for people

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anywhere to start new ventures and acquire new assets, making value based on their success and the success of the metaverse world they choose. As with many new technologies, the basic concepts can be readily grasped, and the potential benefits excite considerable interest; however, as with technological advancements in the physical world, those in the metaverse also come with many practical and ethical questions. To the extent the metaverse remains purely virtual (VR), these concerns are probably manageable. However, if the metaverse is overlaid on our real world and real people through AR, the decisions and actions a user makes can have a direct and real impact on people in the physical world. The implications are extremely complex. Similarly, if the metaverse remains centralized and avatars are controlled by algorithms, the ethical issues are like those surrounding AI in general. Conversely, a decentralized metaverse, where individuals control the actions of their own avatars, making them potentially personally liable for consequences to others in the physical world, raises a whole host of interrelated issues few have truly delved into. Leaving the ramifications solely to market forces is potentially very dangerous. At present, surprisingly few people understand the current metaverse, let  alone its future. Long-­ term growth and success will depend on well-­conceived governance structures to limit the range of unintended consequences.

Energy “The world hates change, yet it is the only thing that has brought progress.” —­Charles Kettering

Energy is at the heart of everything. And yet today, with all our increased sophistication, 80 percent of the energy we use comes

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from fossil fuels, despite that they deplete, are often at the center of geopolitical instability, and remain a major source of health and environmental problems. There are three overarching reasons the world has opted, to this point, to make choices that have little to no long-­term justification: • In the short-­term, they are less expensive. Extraction costs and processing of fossil fuels have been much lower than those of large-­scale generation of renewables. • Politics. Those empowered to make decisions avoid, when possible, those that require their citizens to make short-­term sacrifices. Simply stated, they choose to be re-­elected and remain in power. • Incumbency. Those profiting from the status quo will fight viciously to maintain it. For the first time, however, the tide appears to be changing. This is empowered by the rapid evolution of frontier technologies. Energy usage, research, development, and implementation have all benefited from the massive increases in computational power (AI and quantum), the revolution in communications technology (4G, 5G), IoT, the advances in automation (robotics, 3D printing), and the interrelated improvements in materials science. When used in innovative approaches, these impact the four major subsets of the energy sector: sourcing, storage, transmission/distribution, and use.

Sourcing The ability to generate commercial quantities of energy at competitive prices from solar, wind, and geothermal sources is not only within reach but already being adopted in many countries. Although there remain the three usual constraints—­ capital,

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politics, and self-­interest—­the benefits are overwhelming and likely to prevail: • Despite current pessimism, the world won’t run out of energy. • Energy will be greener. • Greater production efficiency should push down prices. • The sources of many renewables are not as geographically concentrated.

Solar Solar energy has been used for a long time—­but not in major scale. The greatest problems have been relative inefficiency and high cost. Increased computational power has enabled the research and development of much more effective ways of harnessing energy. The two primary methods for converting sunlight to energy—­photovoltaic (PV) cells (i.e., solar panels) and concentrated solar power (CSP)—­have both seen major advances in the past decade. The combined solar capacity of PV and CSP still represents a small percentage of global energy use, although it is growing rapidly. Integrating new technologies, production could more than double over the next decade and the long-­term prospects are much more significant. PV cells have also improved in efficiency to between 15 and 20 percent. NREL has already designed a solar cell—­using a greater percentage of the solar spectrum—­ that achieves 47.1 efficiency. It is not currently commercial. However, the idea of large-­scale production with greater than 50 percent efficiency is no longer a pipe dream. Already, the cost per KWh of Utility Scale PV (not home or commercial) has declined dramatically to as little as 3 cents (excluding tax credits), down around 90 percent over the past decade, and much less than the

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5 to 17 cents for coal. One huge long-­term advantage of PV cells is the ability for them to be used on a highly decentralized basis, without the need for major infrastructure (in generation or distribution). Furthermore, through 3D printing, even manufacturing cells can be decentralized. CSP has a number of advantages: it can generate both electricity and heat; it uses mirrors, rather than expensive, toxic materials; it might be able to use a broader spectrum than PV; and energy can be stored in materials such as molten salt, providing more grid stability. The greatest issues are high initial capital costs and a poor history of project completion. Although there are no new “silver bullet” technologies on the horizon, major advancements in materials science and use of data continue to improve both construction and operational efficiencies.

Wind The capacity of wind-­ generated electricity has grown dramatically—­more installations, taller towers, larger and better designed blades, and more efficient turbines. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, “the levelized cost of wind energy has decreased from more than 60 cents per kilowatt-­hour in 1980 to 3.5 cents per kilowatt-­hour today, and interest in wind power continues to grow as next-­generation technologies make wind an affordable clean energy solution.”2 Currently, it is among the most cost-­efficient sources of energy. Improvements from here are likely to be meaningful but less dramatic. The key is to decrease capital costs. The growth in scale of components has made centralized construction necessary, and transportation is both expensive and, particularly for the blades (which are huge),

2 “U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office—­Lasting Impressions.” U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, January 2021. DOE/GO-­102020-­5510

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often unmanageable. Research into carbon fiber blades and use of 3D printing with concrete should allow for localized production and installation, bringing down project lead times and costs. New recyclable materials will also decrease the vast amount of landfill needed for decommissioned blades. Quantum computing is also predicted to increase the efficiency of wind turbines, and AI is predicting when servicing and maintenance is needed in advance.

Geothermal The temperature at Earth’s core is nearly the same as the surface of the sun, and through decay of naturally radioactive materials, it can continue to maintain that heat for billions of years to come. Even closer to Earth’s surface, temperatures are sufficiently high to satisfy all the world’s energy needs. Since many of the necessary engineering skills parallel those in the oil and gas industry, this sector could offer a good opportunity to transition much of the workforce from fossil fuel production. The constraints lie in the ability to create equipment able to handle the extreme heat and high levels of pressure the deeper under the surface one works. Much geothermal energy production has been extremely low tech with relatively limited opportunities for implementation. Quantum computing and AI dramatically improve exploration possibilities for geothermal sources, fine-­tuning and customizing plant design, and the use of advanced robotics to improve extraction.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells Hydrogen fuel cells operate like batteries but don’t deplete. For wave after wave of researcher, entrepreneur, and investor alike, hydrogen has been the dream—­an energy source with an infinite number of applications and no toxic emissions. However,

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although hydrogen is everywhere, it is always part of a compound and requires large amounts of energy—­ to date virtually all carbon-­based—­to isolate. As renewables become more commercially viable, so does “green” hydrogen. It is also a “platform” molecule, meaning it can replace carbon in a vast number of products, including fertilizers, plastics, and industrial processes. Frontier technologies will be a key component to finally making this area feasible.

Nuclear Fission and Fusion Few more polarizing topics exist than nuclear energy. Nuclear fission can generate significant energy for the short-­to medium-­ term. It involves splitting a heavy, unstable atom, a process that has three major problems—­scarcity and danger of materials and extremely long-­ term biproducts (nuclear waste). Although nuclear plants are capital-­intensive, they provide extraordinary efficiency of energy generation—­8,000 times that of fossil fuels—­ making nuclear energy among the least expensive current sources of energy (on an operating basis). From a distribution perspective, it is also among the most stable. The problem, however, is that Uranium 235 is radioactive, and when there are accidents (e.g., Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Fukushima), they are incredibly problematic. That said, the total number of deaths relating to nuclear has been 1 percent that of coal and oil and less than 3 percent that of natural gas. However, radioactivity—­with a decay period of 700 million years—­is a problem. Those who favor this space assume the rapid evolution of our scientific capabilities will inevitably lead to a solution—­just not now. Unfortunately, cost-­ benefit analysis is meaningless when the tail of the distribution is so long and the impact of a major incident unquantifiable. That said, AI, advanced computing, improved communications, and

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robotics are crucial to all aspects of nuclear energy design, construction, distribution, and crisis management. Nuclear fusion has also been mooted as a long-­term global solution. Unlike nuclear fission, nuclear fusion involves combining two lighter, highly accessible atoms (hydrogen or helium) where the reaction has much lower residual risk. The problem has been that until recently, the amount of energy necessary to cause the reaction has been greater than the net amount generated. Although progress is being made, it is only in large research facilities with minimal output generated. Even with significant technological advances, the development cycle is likely to exceed 30 years.

Energy Storage To supply uninterrupted energy 24/7, there need to be stable, high-­capacity, and secure methods of storing it. This has dramatically limited what forms of energy distribution grids can use, as the energy supply from renewables such as wind and solar generally is neither consistent nor predictable. A big roadblock to greater adoption of nonfossil energy is that storage technology has been relatively low tech and limited in scale and/or location. Frontier technologies are important to this by improving the accuracy of predicting both supply and demand for energy, and the design and efficiency of key components and overall storage-­related projects, and by using 3D manufacturing for greater decentralization and flexibility: • Pumped hydroelectric. Surprising to most, this represents around 95 percent of global energy storage capacity. Using energy generated in one time period, water from one reservoir at a lower elevation is pumped to an upper reservoir and released when needed to generate electricity. A technology

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in use since the late 19th century, improvements are more incremental than paradigm shifting, involving more efficient materials and greater use of digital processing and optimization. The main constraints are the needs for a large and consistent supply of water and a lot of real estate. Research is underway to substitute solid materials for water, such as using excess renewable energy generated during peak periods to transport heavy weights to a higher elevation and then releasing them on demand to run turbines. • Batteries. Batteries involve the storage of chemical energy that can be readily converted into electricity. There is considerable current research, particularly for electric vehicles. Much innovation is focused on material science to improve efficiency, lower toxicity, and limit geopolitical risk in sourcing. Some front-­ runners include lithium-sulfur, sodium-sulfur, sodium-­ion, graphene, seawater, and sand. R&D into how batteries charge and deliver energy, and ways in which they are used (including being woven into clothing), are encyclopedic. • Thermal storage. Thermal storage converts surplus energy into heat or cold for use at a different time. Its applications range from full-­scale solar facilities, using molten salt to maintain heat, to smaller scale, localized, water-­based systems both hot and cold. Systems vary dramatically in complexity and cost, making them adaptable to different needs. • Compressed air. Excess energy is used to compress air and pump it into an underground storage facility, with current projects looking for other storage media. The advantages are long-­term stability and higher capacity. The downsides are high capital costs and relative inefficiency because of heat loss during compression.

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• Flywheels. Excess electricity accelerates a flywheel. When energy is required, the flywheel is used to power a generator. Under normal circumstances, the loss of energy from friction is both substantial and rapid. However, technological advances take advantage of magnetic bearings, which are housed in a vacuum to dramatically lower friction losses. The downside is high capital cost, leading to potentially less competitive prices than a lithium-­ion battery. Given lower negative externalities, however, it is surprising there has not been more uptake.

Energy Transmission and Distribution Loss factors are extremely high using fossil fuels: “It is estimated that natural gas plants convert around 45 percent of the primary input, into electricity, resulting in ‘only’ 55 percent of energy loss, whereas a traditional coal plant may lose up to 68 percent.”3 This has accelerated a global trend toward electrification. Again, technology is helping significantly improve the electricity grid. Currently, the loss factors from the point of electric power generation to the arrival at the end user is very high. This stems from long distribution lines, low power factors, and insufficient conductor capacity in rural distribution, badly designed and poorly installed infrastructure, inconsistent current balancing and load management, and inefficiency in transformers. There is an enormous quantity of research into superconductivity, materials in which electricity can be moved without friction to deliver lossless transmission. Some materials are able to provide superconductivity, but only when supercooled to close to -­273 centigrade. This is clearly not practical for real-­world 3 “FEP: Energy Losses in Power Generation,” Future Energy Partners, February 26, 2021, www.future-­energy-­ partners.com/post/energy-­losses-­in-­power-­generation.

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use. A room temperature superconductive material would revolutionize energy use by delivering near lossless transmission. In October 2022, a study claimed to have found such a material, but it has since been challenged. The quest continues but without any sense of a realistic time frame. Many grid-­improvement projects are compelling on both cost-benefit and a long-­term policy basis. The efforts break down into three categories, covered next.

Use of Frontier Technologies in the Up-­Front Design and Planning of the Grid The efforts fall into two categories: • Evolution of the smart grid. Advanced sensors, smart switches, and digital technology can both address issues in real time and learn from patterns to support iterative future planning. These include increased broadband use for two-­ way communication, the installation of advanced inverters, the use of cybersecurity to protect the grid, improved data analytics, and coordinated monitoring (including drones). • Better hardware. More efficient transformers and wiring alone will make a huge difference. New wire designs, using carbon fiber cores with tight-­packed conductive metal, can greatly reduce the loss factors. New technologies also allow individual and commercial consumers of electricity to produce and supply excess energy to the grid.

Use A tremendous amount of consumer and industrial energy is lost through inefficient use. Awareness is growing, but not fast enough. Frontier technologies will be key in a number of areas:

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to better gathering and processing of information on isolating losses and improved planning for more effective use; improving plant design and operating protocols, particularly in industries that require major heating or cooling; using more efficient equipment and materials; harnessing and reusing wasted energy and converting to sustainable energy sources: • Transportation sector. In 2018 according to the World Economic Forum, the United States transportation sector suffered a loss factor of 79 percent.4 Use of the combustion engine remains the biggest culprit. Although there is progress toward electric vehicles, they present their own logistical issues, as well as the substantial cost of converting fleets. In the meantime, improvements in logistics through technology-­driven planning models and improved communications offer some low-­hanging fruit. • Industrial sector. This is the second worst, with an approximate 50 percent loss in the United States.5 Major factors include: heat generation to power the manufacture of many materials, such as metal, glass, and concrete; the types of motors used to power most processes; and, the lack of scheduling efficiency on production lines and plant heating/cooling. As with transportation, a transition from existing equipment and systems is complicated and involves high up-­ front costs. Using renewable energy is a longer-­term solution. The most likely short-­ term and cost-­ effective improvements will be the adoption of many frontier technology advances in process monitoring, data collection and analysis, and process management.

4 Jeff Desjardins, “This Chart Shows Just How Much Energy the US Is Wasting,” World Economic Forum, May 25, 2018, www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/visualizing-­u-­s-­energy-­consumption-­in-­one-­chart. 5 Ibid.

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• Commercial sector. In 2018, the commercial sector such as offices and hospitality wasted about 35 percent of its total energy (similar to the consumer sector and for many of the same reasons). The greatest savings will come from upgrading to more efficient equipment, particularly heating and cooling, the use of better insulation, and greater adoption of local solar. Using frontier information and communications technology can also significantly improve efficiency through better monitoring and scheduling. Many solutions are not capital-intensive, and even those that are, frequently have compelling overall cost-­benefit characteristics. • Residential sector. About a third of residential energy in the US is wasted. Use of energy at home is dominated by heating and cooling, appliances and devices, and lighting.6 The worst percentage loss is from incandescent lights, which have largely been phased out in many countries. Inefficient heating and air conditioning units and old appliances are also significant culprits. New-­generation heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), boilers, and appliances offer massive efficiency gains. Many other opportunities exist, including the use of digital sensors; programs to track use and patterns of use; remotely controlled devices with advanced telecom; and IoT to make houses “smarter” and through tokenization return energy to the grid.

The Bioeconomy and Biodigital Convergence “I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination.” —­Jimmy Dean 6

Ibid.

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The bioeconomy and biodigital convergence are interrelated topics with significant interest and promise. Their possibilities and implications are important to areas such as energy, health, and the human body, and they are made possible only by frontier technologies. The bioeconomy is a broad field that relates to all economic activity that uses plant-­based materials to produce food, products, and energy in a way that is sustainable and can lower dependence on carbon-­based inputs. It has potentially positive economic and environmental implications and has been a political talking point for a long time. In 2009, the OECD produced a paper, “The Bioeconomy to 2030,” that included this definition: “The main current uses of biotechnology . . . are for plant and animal breeding and diagnostics. Human health applications include therapeutics, diagnostics, pharmacogenetics . . . and some medical devices. Industrial applications include the use of biotechnological processes to produce chemicals, plastics, and enzymes, environmental applications such as bioremediation . . . biosensors, methods to reduce the environmental effects or costs of resource extraction, and the production of biofuels . . . Many other applications . . . are still in the experimental stage, such as regenerative medicine and health therapies based on RNA interference.”7 Fourteen years later, AI and early stage Quantum Computers have put biotechnology and genetic engineering in a position to achieve tangible results in many areas. These include the future of medicine/healthcare, food, energy, manufacturing, the environment (pollution, rebalancing ecosystems, etc.), and the rethinking of the human body. Recent events have increased the public visibility of biotechnology, although the level of venture 7 OECD, “The Bioeconomy to 2030: Designing a Policy Agenda,” OECD Publishing, 2009, www.oecd.org/ futures/long-­termtechnologicalsocietalchallenges/42837897.pdf

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capital prior to this would be enough to indicate a field that had already more than come of age. It is likely there will be considerable acceleration in applications released over the next few years. Biodigital convergence is at the cutting edge of both biotech/ biomedical science and information technology and one of the most challenging, innovative, and exciting areas of technological exploration. As the name suggests, it involves the interaction and/or combination of technology with the biological sciences. Interestingly, it crystallizes many of the same important issues covered in other sections of the book—ones humanity must address—­consciously or not, willingly or not. According to Policy Horizons, there are three principal classes of biodigital convergence:8 • Full physical integration of biological and digital entities. Digital technology is embedded in organisms and biological components as parts of digital technologies that create new hybrid forms of life and technology. Robots with either biological brains  or biological bodies and digital brains already exist at an early stage of development, as do brain-­machine interfaces. • Coevolution of biological and digital technologies. The independent progress in each field enables and accelerates advances in the other. The combination of AI with genetic research has led to the ability to modify organic compounds and even create synthetic ones and the creation of clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR). Similarly, the field of biocomputing, computers designed based on biological brains would not have been possible without the extraordinary advances in biomedical research.

8 Policy Horizons | Horizons de politiques, “What Is the Biodigital Convergence?,” Policy Horizons Canada, July 29, 2021, https://horizons.gc.ca/en/2021/07/29/what-­is-­the-­biodigital-­convergence.

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• Conceptual convergence of biological and digital systems. As technology increases our ability to research biological systems and allows us to process inconceivable amounts of data, the more we can predict not only single-­ event interactions and outcomes but those of entire processes as well. This will impact every aspect of medicine and products and processes relating to organic cells. Similarly, the greater our understanding of the underlying cellular decision-­making frameworks and processes, the more they can be incorporated into the processing logic that forms the backbone of computer systems. As is the case with certain other frontier technologies, the implications are dramatic, even existential. They include changing human beings, creating new organisms, better structuring industrial processes, evolving all aspects of information gathering and use, and even altering environments and entire ecosystems.

Health/Medicine Blackadder: “I’ve never had anything you doctors didn’t try to cure with leeches. A leech on my ear for earache, a leech on my bottom for constipation.” Doctor:

“You know the leech comes to us on the highest authority?”

Blackadder: “Yes. Dr. Hoffmann of Stuttgart, isn’t it?” Doctor:

“That’s right, the great Hoffmann.”

Blackadder: “Owner of the largest leech farm in Europe. . .”9 —­Blackadder, Season 2 Mark Butler, “35 Of Blackadder’s Most Cunning Quotes and One-­Liners,” inews.co.uk, October 9, 2020, https://inews.co.uk/culture/television/blackadder-­quotes-­161437.

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While predictions vary, the world’s population is likely to continue to grow for some period. Life expectancy is also increasing. Improvements in healthcare have much to do with both. It will also be an extraordinarily important factor in what the world will look like and how it will function going forward. Today, the average global spending on health is approximately 11 percent, and these numbers continue to grow.10 As the global medical complex has mushroomed and become more interlinked, achievements are clear to see in every aspect: • Research • Data aggregation, computation, and analysis • Diagnosis • Prophylaxis • Pharmaceuticals • Equipment/devices • Treatment • Physical infrastructure • Economic infrastructure • Data/records infrastructure However, there remain frustrations in each link. Not only does each new success reveal new challenges, but the process itself is rife with waste and inefficiency. The good news is that technology of every conceivable type will have a role to play, not only in improving the quality of the healthcare provided but also in dramatically increasing its outreach and enabling treatment not only of the urban affluent in developed nations but those less fortunate in more remote regions around the globe. This will “Global Health Expenditure Database,” World Health Organization (World Health Organization), accessed March 15, 2023, https://apps.who.int/nha/database.

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come through more efficient processes delivered as a result of technological innovation at a massively lower cost. Technology-­ enabled fields of frontier research and treatment. Although medicine has progressed considerably over the past century, this has been off a remarkably low base. However, over the past few decades the acceleration has been dramatic. A few compelling examples include: • Quantum computing. The vastly increased power of computing over the past few decades has allowed research and development to take place that could never have happened before. The advent of quantum computing, and its new way of “thinking,” will accelerate these efforts and spawn a wealth of new areas. For example, the ability to map the human genome and find idiosyncratic anomalies will allow for more targeted/personalized curative medicines and prophylactic tools. • AI will be central to a more efficient evolution of many medical and administrative procedures. It is already used to enhance the speed and accuracy of diagnoses, but its inherent advantage of systematically building on knowledge based on the instantaneous absorption and access to and interpretation of vast amounts of data, will allow for statistically very significantly improved results. The same is true in the more mundane but very time-­ consuming and complex administrative aspects of healthcare. The greatest limitation in data-­driven healthcare, in which Google and others are investing significant resources is the communication among systems. Coordinating the vast number of different programs, written at different times, on different systems, in different languages, is an extraordinarily complex endeavor. In the healthcare field, with very high standards for both data and privacy protection, the number

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of hurdles is particularly large. For new systems and protocols, the use of blockchain and tokens can more effectively address some of these issues. Fraud detection should be significantly reduced and the ability to effectively assess, price, and manage liabilities greatly enhanced; these should lead to much greater cost efficiency and better allocation of funds to the “front line.” Unfortunately, for many reasons, there will be a rather gradual overall adoption and use of AI in healthcare. • Always-­ on communications (currently 5G). With the latency levels declining dramatically, virtually instantaneous communication increases the potential efficacy across many disciplines—­telemedicine, virtual medicine, patient monitoring, and, with certain devices, even remote patient treatment (the pacemaker immediately comes to mind). On a more basic level, even a surgery conducted in one location with video collaboration from specialists elsewhere will become considerably more “secure” when communication links are more reliable and faster. But remote medicine is far from the only area to benefit. Experiments carried out in different labs across the globe, with real-­time shared data will save significant time in complex research projects. Internet of Medical Things. The improved ability of medical devices across all fields to communicate directly with one another, particularly as 5G and its successors evolve, provides an almost unlimited set of opportunities to virtually every aspect of healthcare and medicine. As devices used in patient monitoring become able to communicate simultaneously with multiple health facilities and also handle much of the background “paperwork” and insurance process, far more can be achieved in a much shorter time. Also, equipment being used in either live or virtual procedures and

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including self-­diagnostics to avert issues and use shared protocols (secured on the blockchain) opens doors inconceivable even a couple of years ago. • Blockchain and tokenization. Both the back office and the front office can benefit significantly from protocols that fully secure and protect information and more easily record and track successes and failures. There is very little data in the world more important and valuable than that related to the personal health information of everyone on Earth. The risks of breach are real and scary. To mitigate them, labor-­intensive back-­office work is needed. Similarly, on the front lines, as the fight against COVID-­19 demonstrated, there is significant benefit to sharing research data among institutions/ groups. In a global crisis, there was a willingness to take the risk of a targeted breach. Yet going forward, the implications of a breach, either to steal data or to corrupt it, are extremely alarming. Working in silos to limit the risks of hacking is not a great solution, as it will continue to hamper and delay valuable research and the delivery of services. The blockchain and tokenization are tools that can greatly limit risks of breach and encourage multilateral cooperation. This could allow the tokenization of genetic codes permitting people to license and monetize their DNA in a nonintrusive and potentially valuable way. Our very own individual DNA could be encoded in tokens and licensed on a micro-­ transactional basis to allow drug discovery and experimentation to be conducted in simulation—­ an area that could become genetic finance (GeFi). • Robotics. Robots are real and here to stay. The precision achievable even today is extraordinary. In the future, the implications are far-­reaching, not only in traditional medicine but even more so as micro-­and nano-­medicines evolve.

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• Additive Manufacturing. This has already gained a major foothold on many levels. From a training perspective, it allows a surgeon to create a perfect model to train on before performing a technically complex procedure. The ability to print using diverse materials for use in procedures (e.g., 3D teeth, printed joints, skin grafts, and even organs) is now becoming mainstream. Printing can also be used to create bespoke medications with specific delivery characteristics. And on a more mundane basis, it allows for the decentralization of production of many common supplies. Hospitals are particularly hostage to the vagaries of the supply chain. Having the ability to print key required items locally creates tremendous operational flexibility, improved speed of delivery, and most likely delivers cost savings as well. • Augmented and virtual reality. These already play a role in four key areas: ◦◦ Training (VR). They allow for complete immersion in simulations of many procedures. ◦◦ Therapeutics (VR). Currently AR and VR are used in the recovery process for patients who suffered traumatic injuries (particularly limbs) and in the treatment of pain through visualization exercises and protocols. ◦◦ Surgery (AR). Through wearing glasses or other AR devices, a surgeon can have real patient data (from scans, etc.) and/or important information from any source directly visible at the exact point of execution during any point of the procedure. ◦◦ Telemedicine. A combination of vastly more powerful and stable communications networks, AI, IoT, and wearable devices, along with a strong dose of COVID­19 induced practices, has propelled telemedicine to new heights. This combines efficient use of resources with the ability to reach out and access patients in remote areas

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who would otherwise remain untreated. As robotics evolve, the breadth of potential telemedicine services offered will also increase dramatically. It will need to do so. Many medical systems around the world are on the brink of collapse, and the working conditions for doctors, nurses, and many of the other professional and support staff verge on untenable. The number of qualified practitioners relative to need and subject to current operational constraints, is insufficient and likely to worsen. Telemedicine combined with streamlined (computerized) administrative functions, will greatly expand the potential availability of medical services. It will be particularly significant in initial triage, with fully automated systems considerably accelerating the overall access to services. • Remote patient monitoring, digital therapeutics, smart implants, and wearables. In a similar way to the use of technology in telemedicine, the evolution of devices and implants that can accurately monitor, communicate, and execute tasks presents a wealth of opportunities in areas including the heart, brain, blood sugar, sleep patterns, oxygen saturation, etc. Furthermore, through AI, digital programs prescribed by a doctor that actually interact with patients, “diagnosing” a growing number of conditions, providing certain treatment recommendations, monitoring results, and communicating back to the physician greatly improve efficiency and encourage patients to deal with issues rather than pretending they don’t exist.

Frontier Technologies and the Human Body “Nature, to be commanded, must be obeyed.” —­Francis Bacon

As knowledge has expanded how the human body and brain function, so has the technology that can replicate, integrate with,

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and enhance them. This leads to three related but, to date, different pathways: • Evolving computers that integrate all human senses into their operating systems—­digitizing human senses. • Integrating computer technology into the human body. • Using advanced genetic engineering and nanotechnology to repair, modify, and/or enhance the human body and brain.

Digitizing Human Senses As humans and technology continue to merge and integrate, communication will migrate from using keyboards and screens to more advanced speech recognition, immersive technologies, and eventually seamless assimilation with our senses. There are five key human senses: touch, sight, hearing, taste, and smell. The sixth sense—­intuition—­is much less clear but also heavily researched and with AI, likely to be “captured” and used in applications of the future. Frontier technologies may even discover a few more. All our senses are vital and combined, form our connection with the world, acting as our interface with all aspects of the environment around us (human and other). Technologies working with sight, touch, and hearing have been around since the early days of computers, but like so many other areas, they have evolved considerably. The future of sight is linked with immersive AR, VR, and a growing presence of holography. For touch, there is ever improving feedback in computer mice and game controllers, as well as smartphone haptics and super haptics. Sound is now being evolved to allow you to actually feel as if you are being physically touched: a well-­known haircut audio file tricks you into actually “feeling” the hairdryer and scissors. Sound technology can also

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deliver different audio to people sitting in the same room or next to each other in a car. When combined, the effects can be remarkable, such as rides where although stationary, one experiences full immersion in distant environments (e.g., Disney and Universal Studios rides and pilot/astronaut training). Evolving from this, scientists are combining computer-­generated graphics with controlled jets of air to create an artificial touch sensation for holograms, some with changing air temperatures to emulate hot or cold surfaces. Others are automating and optimizing olfactory technology, which could be a precursor to delivering full smell experiences as well. Not only are these technologies becoming more sophisticated and widely used, in the not distant future, they could become fully integrated into multimedia as well. Their importance and applications extend far beyond entertainment. For example, research into the potential link between mood disorders and smell could lead to olfactory technology that effectively treats these conditions or, more broadly, uses smell to detect or even change our moods. Given the importance of our senses in every realm, the range of applications is limitless. The benefits will be enormous, yet the hazard of computers trained to influence or control emotions is not insignificant, and, once again, the current level of debate on consequences, both applied and philosophical is limited at best.

Integrating Computer Technology into the Human Body This is hardly a new area, either in fiction or in fact. The human body, although miraculous in its capabilities, has limitations; it fades over time, breaks, or simply experiences physical constraints that limit the implementation of ideas the mind evolves.

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Science fiction has feasted on “cyber convergence,” both with the miraculous potential and the evolution of the super bad guy or fully dystopian society. Much more mundane, the millions of artificial hips, knees, and shoulders, the increased use of advanced prosthetics, and the mass adoption of pacemakers (extending lives around the world), attest to the current levels of acceptance of technology integrated into the human body. At a more advanced level, a company called Carmat designed a robot heart with a combination of fabricated and animal parts. It can stay constantly connected to hospital systems so doctors are able to monitor it and ensure it functions as it should. Several of these hearts have already been implanted in patients. Another significant development by researchers at Linköping University and LinkoCare Life Sciences AB is an implant resembling the human cornea that has restored vision to 20 blind people.11 This is the next step in developing mass-­ produced biomaterial for use in the human body. As each of these life-­ improving and life-­extending technologies becomes accepted by the medical community and used by the general population, the distinction between human and machine gradually begins to blur, and the choice to be upgraded becomes increasingly seamless. More and more people become connected devices with smart organs. These devices will include an increasing amount of technology that improves remote monitoring, diagnostics, and treatment. The impending dilemma is who or what makes the decision to treat and in what way. The connecting of the individual with the network will have clear benefits, but the implications on human free will and independence are terrifying. The accelerated R&D in a wide range of medical, biomedical, engineering, robotics, computing, and other fields is closing Neuroscience News, “Bioengineered Cornea Can Restore Sight to the Blind and Visually Impaired,” Neuroscience News, August 11, 2022, https://neurosciencenews.com/corena-­implant-­vision-­21225.

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the gap, at an incomprehensible pace, between fiction and fact. Elon Musk, a clear leader at pushing the edge of envelopes, believes humans and machines must merge or end up irrelevant in the frontier technology age. His view is that computers can communicate at a trillion bits per second while a human typing on a device can achieve a mere 10 bits per second. Whether or not you agree with his overall philosophy, this is an unsustainable gap, and smart minds and money are already fully engaged in shrinking this disparity. A full “upgrade,” like the Terminator, the Bionic Man, or some of the Marvel superheroes, with a visible mix of organic, genetically modified, and manufactured materials, is unlikely, at least in the short term. Although the pathway is likely to be gradual, the journey has already started. We probably will not face the direct question, “Do you want to surgically implant a control chip into your brain?” It will not be this obvious. Human/technology integrations will continue with small, incremental upgrades with the following steps: • A continued improvement on the base of largely mechanical procedures in use today. • An evolution from use of the smartphone to something constantly accessible (along the lines of Google Glass) and then perhaps to easy-­to-­insert AI/AR contact lenses and eventually to permanent implants. These will convert our current addiction to externally generated information into a true dependence on the additional cognitive capabilities they create. • As neuroscience evolves, supplementing the mechanical with basic cognitive interfaces is a clear next step. Already, New York start-­up Synchron conducted a relatively simple surgery on a severely paralyzed man to integrate a stent-­like implant in his brain to interpret his brainwaves. The man is

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now able to control his mobile phone with his mind. This is just the starting point. Although a phenomenal achievement, this device’s rapid approval under an exemption does not give confidence that regulators fully understand the breadth of consequences this type of device represents.

Nanotechnology and Genetic Engineering Evolving at the same time as the integration of external parts and processes into the human body are two extraordinary fields that involve modifications, adaptations, and even elimination of parts of existing human cellular structure—­genetic engineering and nanotechnology. Both would have been inconceivable without many frontier technologies: • Nanotechnology. This is a relatively new field that manipulates matter with at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometers. This extreme miniaturization can have an impact on almost every area discussed in this book. A full discussion is a book in itself; however, mentioning it in this section is important, as being able to create substances and tools that can penetrate any part of the human body and conduct functions controlled from the outside is already becoming a reality. As development evolves into positive areas such as diagnostics, surgery, and treatment of diseases at a submolecular level, the processes and techniques used (e.g., substance delivery mechanisms, implanting of nanocircuits, use of “nanotools” to change the architecture of cells, etc.) will most likely also be usable to super-­enable or disable key functions within the body. The opportunities and dangers are both clear but remain largely unaddressed in the rush to develop them.

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• Genetic engineering. The basis for applied genetic research emerged from the discovery of the double helix structure by James Watson and Francis Crick. This led to the mapping of the entire human genome (only recently fully completed), which has accelerated research into the actual function and functioning of all individual genes, the reasons for mutation, and ways to effect change. Taking advantage of the rapid acceleration in computational power, researchers have been able to achieve volumes of calculation that were simply impossible a decade ago. The ability to move and combine specific genes has existed since the 1970s and has been used in agricultural products (GMOs), biotechnology, and medicine in a range of applications. Today, however, the potential applications are limitless for diagnosing and treating a broad array of diseases and advancing immunology to prevent them. The other immense value is the ability to design unique gene therapies on a case-­by-­case basis; although still limited and very costly today, the increased speed and “intelligence” of computers will continuously streamline the process. One of the most powerful tools to emerge is CRISPR, which, using an amalgam of technologies, allows scientists, with great speed and precision, to edit—­even rewrite—­genetic codes in a broad array of organisms. Clearly the potential for good is extraordinary—­accelerating the cures for diseases such as cancer, heart disease, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, and numerous others. However, the ability to splice genes and make selective changes to otherwise healthy organisms to “improve” them raises an equal or greater number of concerns on practical, philosophical, and ethical grounds. Unlike integrating hardware and software into the human body, which disappears upon the death of the individual, the change of genetic sequencing can be passed from

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generation to generation and is, therefore, permanent. Putting aside how bad actors might influence and use these technologies, the unanticipated effects from those with the best intentions are disturbing enough. And once again, the current ability to effectively regulate on a global basis is simply nonexistent.

The Future of the Human Body Although in concept both highly disconcerting and very unappealing to many, major fundamental human upgrades are likely to happen. The obvious short-­term benefits they offer, the gradual shift of regulatory rules, and the direct and subtle use of communication to sway opinion will allow enhancements to occur over a timeframe much more compressed than many might think. The challenging and acceleration of millions of years of evolution over the past century is amazing, and our ability to accelerate this further is unquestionable. Is the creation of a super-­species with a highly modified genetic code still fiction? Even if a more moderated outcome prevails, the widespread use of “enhancement” technologies will leave many people with little choice but to integrate aspects into their own bodies simply to compete. Regardless, each new development and each new device will lead to a more “seamless” and advanced interface between our bodies and the frontier technologies operating around us. More and more of us will be connected in some ways, turning us into smart devices. Doctors will no longer need us to visit the hospital to diagnose a broad range of ailments, and many conditions will be treated remotely and/or the parts serviced in the same way. But who else, apart from doctors, will be able to assert control: governments, police, hackers, or an autonomous computer program? Similarly, in parallel with the increased communication of IoT, there is bound to be a parallel development of the Internet

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of Us (IoU), connecting humans on many levels and allowing us to find, absorb, and share information and experiences in an entirely new way. Fast-­forward—­a combination of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, neuroscience, and cutting-­ edge communication will allow for a brain machine interface where our brain data is read, harnessed, or even connected to quantum computers, essentially creating “QBrains.” Could our well-­ meaning governments one day choose to “borrow” our capabilities, without our knowledge? At that point, the concept of humans as controlled devices in a dystopian version of the metaverse, where real life and the digital world have become entirely intertwined, is no longer impossible. The opportunity for frontier technologies to improve humans through biological and technological enhancement and genetic engineering could well lead to a forced evolutionary bifurcation, which effectively creates two (or more) essentially different separate species, with a gap too enormous to jump by natural means. This would most likely consign all nonenhanced humanity to a permanently second-­class future, dwarfing our current concerns of inequality between the haves and have-­nots. Moreover, as genetic modifications are transferred to future generations, human (or possibly AI) design would inevitably limit the incredible randomness of natural evolution, the most primal form of innovation. Historically, conquering nations have added to the gene pool; natural disasters have eliminated genes. Many other seemingly random events have led to significant evolutionary changes. In Darwinian terms, there has been a continuous battle with only the fittest surviving. Engineered enhancements might well provide extraordinary improvements for the current environment. However, in the event of unexpected exogenous world changes, engineered solutions based on preprogrammed parameters, no matter how sophisticated and/or adaptable, might not be sufficient.

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Clearly, all these developments are fraught with practical, philosophical, and ethical problems; yet those with power and the capital to pursue their goals plow on largely unimpeded; and this progression will certainly continue, as it always has. Yet how we control or limit these developments is more than problematic. Ironically, one of the most dangerous intermediate steps would be for a group of concerned countries to take strong action to regulate many procedures. In our fluid world, this would lead to the developments continuing in other jurisdictions, where this alliance would have no control whatsoever. Unfortunately, the attractive but idealistic path of forming an effective global regulatory body seems impractical. In the short term, only thoughtful debate by a broad spectrum of interests can begin to act as a counterbalance. The responsibility is ours not just for today but even more for future generations.

Key Takeaways The sectors we have discussed are clearly pivotal to the future of humanity. Nonetheless, they are merely powerful examples of the level of impact technology is already having on life today and how it can redefine humanity in the future. It is important to keep in mind that similar magnitudes of change will occur in almost every sector. Many exciting new pathways will emerge. Entirely new approaches will become available to address historically intractable problems. At the same time, every coin has at least two sides, and there will be complicated issues, many with less salubrious consequences, that will need addressing and handling. We explore many of these in the next part of the book.

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This chapter described three key applications of frontier technologies: the metaverse, energy, and health: • The metaverse is likely to become important not just as entertainment but commercially, economically, and socially. At present, surprisingly few people understand the current metaverse, let alone its future potential. • Energy is key to mankind and is already a big beneficiary of frontier technologies to increase efficiency in all its component areas, such as sourcing/creation, storage, transmission, distribution, and use. In the short run, merely increasing efficiency and decreasing waste could be very impactful. In the longer term, sourcing an unlimited amount of clean energy at low cost represents the Holy Grail and an important step in reducing our ecological footprint. • Every aspect of healthcare is already being impacted by technology—­understanding and monitoring the body and mind, treating conditions, extending life, and running healthcare systems. Many interesting new issues emerge, however, as to what being human will actually mean, as technology modifies and enhances our physical and intellectual capabilities.

PART

II The Impact and Implications on  Humanity of Disruptive Technologies

“The four most expensive words in the English language are, ‘This time it’s different.’” —­Sir John Templeton

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very day, we become aware of another new development that has the possibility of opening pathways previously unimaginable. The extraordinary advances in all aspects of science and technology reflect the drive, determination, and brilliance of visionaries, researchers, and implementers around the globe. The ability of human beings to grasp concepts and build on them is the 137

138 THE IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS ON HUMANITY OF DISRUPTIVE primary factor that has separated us from other life forms on the planet from the earliest days of evolution. Over time, this differentiation has accelerated. Today it has become exponential. Although most developments stem from a genuine desire to improve the world, outcomes are rarely linear and almost never as simple as most initiators want to believe. There are always consequences—­positive and negative, intended and unintended. The first part of the book provided a description of some technologies that underpin the exponential changes. While this outlined some of the inherent risks, as well as the benefits, the primary purpose was to answer questions some readers might have about the technologies themselves. This part of the book discusses the potential impact and possible implications that arise from the implementation of these technologies. As the insinuation of these new approaches into our lives becomes virtually universal, we look at eight overarching categories: • Reinventing the economy • Reinventing work • Reinventing education • Reinventing information and communication • Reinventing control • Reinventing the planet • Reinventing humans and humanity • Technology reinventing itself We also highlight the people with the greatest power in influencing the current evolution of technology and some approaches to guide humanity into the future rather than having it imposed upon us. The massive overall complexity, given the breadth and rapidity of change, makes it impossible to provide

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specific systemic solutions. Furthermore, as this book is a call for collective involvement, we specifically look to constrain our own biases. With that in mind, the intent is to do the following: • Embrace complexity, not settle for superficiality. • Raise thoughtful questions, not furnish answers. • In a world subject to exponential change, emphasize the sensitivity of time. • Encourage broad-­ based and active debate among key constituencies. • Focus on approaches that can realistically be implemented rather than reflect philosophical ideals alone. Given how chilling many topics might be and how daunting the probabilities, the temptation is simply to look the other way. Yet that is the worst of all possible approaches—­engagement and action are absolutely necessary.

CHAPTER

5

Reinventing the Economy “Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value.” —­Albert Einstein

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o sector of the economy is immune to technological change. The only issues are the speed of adoption and the degree of impact. These are some key areas that have already seen significant change and can expect further exponential developments.

Money, Banking, Spending, and the Future of Finance “Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.” —­Albert Einstein

Once our various and diverse social systems and cultures are stripped away, the modern world is based on clearly identifiable 141

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fundamentals created and developed over the millennia. Among the most important is a financial system that has become largely accepted around the world—­a major underpinning for the vast level of global trade. Almost nothing works without finance. Blockchain and decentralization, combined with artificial intelligence, always-­on communications, and quantum computing, have a real prospect of disrupting almost every sector by revolutionizing how and where transactions occur. Tokenization, challenger banks, plug-­ and-­pay models, and automated finance are all becoming widely adopted—­for better or worse—­and we are still in their early stages. The movement toward dematerialization by removing the need for physical locations and people is changing the entire model of how finance will work in the decades to come. Historically, the financial system was designed by the elite to benefit the elite. This did not always preclude a “trickle-­down” effect, but that was not the primary goal. Over the past few decades, a combination of greater liquidity in both equity and debt, as well as targeted government policies around the world, has moved toward democratizing the capital markets. Bringing more technology to finance ( fintech) is further increasing access. “Fintech 2.0,” utilizing new frontier technologies, is on the verge of completely redefining finance. Although the adoption has been gradual to this point, full-­scale disruption is anticipated, with outcomes virtually impossible to predict. Two clear and very visible examples are experiments in tokenization and decentralization. They exploded into the global consciousness in 2017 after being devised and developed largely as a reaction to the impact of the financial crash of 2007 on the overall population. The perception of bad or inept behavior by many large institutional and public-­sector players created an opening for a decentralized asset class not controlled by the

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historical power elite. Controversy over the actual goals of many of its proponents has existed from the start; however, the evolving needs of the broader banking and investing public are very real. The overall growth of decentralized finance (DeFi) to meet these needs by reimagining the entire lending, investment, and insurance sectors is unlikely to subside. Some current experiments include decentralized exchanges for users to trade directly without brokers, decentralized lending protocols using computers rather than credit committees, and money markets based on interest rates algorithmically derived from supply and demand, rather than the conventional banking system, which sets them by committee. The enormous speed and power increases of technology have seen it massively impact the financial trading sector. Table  5‑1 shows some of those disruptions and the Moore’s law factor from 1964. Table 5-­1  Disruptions and Moore’s Law Approximate Moore’s Law Factor from 1964

Date

Model

Computerization

1980s 1983 1990s

Derivatives The Big Bang Digital banking

256 512 8,000

2009 2010 2013 2017 2019

Cryptocurrency Challenger banks Robinhood Tokenization DeFi

Now a $700 trillion market The end of trading floors Start of the end of high-­street banks Bitcoin and decentralized money App-­based banks

16 million 67 million 134 million

2021

NFT

Commission free trading Basis for digital asset ownership Decentralized finance based on cryptocurrency and the blockchain NFTs recording digital assets on the blockchain

4.2 million 8 million

268 million

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This has also had a significant impact on many financial sectors including the following: • Mortgage and real estate finance • Retail banking • Credit and lending • Payroll finance • Money transfer • Foreign exchange • Public equity investing • Venture investing/crowdfunding • Private equity investing • Tokenized financial assets such as securities and bonds Many of these are the foundation of organizations with limited human interface, largely computer-­driven. Others might evolve from tokenization and the evolution of the blockchain. The financial sector is also being revolutionized through the following: • Mechanization of processes. • Standardization (through AI/machine learning). • Constantly connected devices with vast processing power in the Cloud. Many of these new technologies bring enormous efficiencies, scalability, and transparency. Using the principles of DeFi, frontier technologies should prove incredibly disruptive through the following four areas of finance: programmable money and assets, self-­ custody, self-­ driving banks, and asset tokenization.

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Programmable Money and Assets Using the blockchain model and combining tokenization and smart contract technologies, currencies can become programmable with intelligence built in. The same is true for essentially all financial assets. This would allow easy integration with, and management by, other technologies and services. Such assets and money could be designated for use only by certain groups or in specific countries. They could be tracked, thereby reducing fraudulent use, and making lending less complicated to groups not viewed traditionally as creditworthy. There could also be limits on when they could be used. For example, parents could give children money they could spend only at certain times on specific items. More concerning, however, is the possibility that governments could reward certain groups by allocating only to them; conversely, governments could threaten or punish others by canceling savings they already owned. This is an area that is poorly understood but under review in countries around the world: and referred to as central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although often referred to in the same context as cryptocurrencies, they are pretty much the polar opposite. Unlike decentralized cryptocurrencies, CBDCs are fully centralized digital currencies issued by central banks. Both China and Russia have been talking about CBDCs for several years, with China actively testing them. That alone should raise concerns. In fact, most of the world’s central banks have been exploring the advantages of CBDCs. They are intended to be programmable digital currencies, which allow central banks to fully control their supply and use. While there are significant benefits, such as efficiency, freeing up global trade and remittances, and better control of currencies by central authorities, there are also significant disadvantages, such as central authorities’ inherent power to restrict or even cancel their use.

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However, programmable assets and money could act as a base for an entirely new financial system, integrating control features such as global KYC AML. Controlled and intelligent trading with derivatives platforms could also be integrated into these services to provide better, more effective, and safer financial security to individuals. A further step could incorporate assets such as art, licenses, intellectual property, or even genetic and location data. These could even be structured as smart NFTs, setting a foundation for a more universal mechanism for the transfer of value. As intriguing as the concept might be, the challenges are currently gargantuan. It is hard to imagine protocols sufficiently well designed and flexible—­even with the power of AI—­that can fully replace dedicated organizations such as central banks and regulatory organizations to control the inherent differences and conflicts of interest among participants. And the power of imagination and advancement is equal for, if not asymmetrically in favor of, hackers looking to take down parts of the system for profit, for ego, or simply for the fun of it.

Self-­Custodying Although traditional banks may have many advantages, they have a range of drawbacks as well: • They impose significant restrictions on whom they will accept as clients, thereby marginalizing much of the world’s population. • Many still have a brick-­and-­mortar base, making access to them difficult for many. • They have limited flexibility.

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• They impose high transactional costs, reflecting their own high operational costs. • Not all banks are as financially secure as they might seem and, in our world of digital banking and instantaneous communication, are particularly susceptible to bank runs. Perhaps not a rousing recommendation for many, the cryptocurrency world initiated a concept where everyone could be their own banker. It involves having a personal digital wallet in which to store one’s currencies, although technology would make it possible to hold virtually any type of asset. In many ways this is the old-­fashioned equivalent of keeping money under the bed or floorboards or in a safe. It would allow inexpensive transacting to many potential customers and address all the problems listed earlier. Unfortunately, it comes with a set of its own issues: • The account owner is the only person with knowledge of the codes to gain access to the account. If those are forgotten (or lost), the assets can never be retrieved. • Similarly, if the wallet itself is lost or possibly hacked, the assets are gone forever. • The ability to sell inappropriate products or engage in pure fraud is greatly magnified. • It requires sophistication to be one’s own banker. • The anonymity will clearly attract many bad players. • Regulatory authorities and central banks are likely to impose many restrictions, decreasing the value proposition, as they have in the past for self-­custodied assets, such as bearer bonds.

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Although self-­custodying could unlock trillions of dollars of value by enabling even those with limited funds to invest in any assets, anywhere, the risks are high and the implementation likely to be fraught with regulatory delays. Issues include the following: • Removing intermediaries and the regulatory structure under which they operate. • Making monitoring, securing, and reversing transactions more difficult. • Making it much more difficult for governments and authorities to legitimately manage monetary controls, prevent money laundering and the financing of terrorism. • Removing the structural safety and security intermediaries can provide. • Self-­custodying one’s own assets makes one a significantly greater target than a person of similar (or greater) wealth using the traditional banking system. In effect, those who self-­custody are always carrying all their assets with them. • As frontier technologies—­such as AI, quantum computing, and deep fakes—­evolve and fraud becomes more prevalent, having well-­capitalized financial institutions as intermediaries becomes very important. • Institutions’ ability to spend large amounts on cybersecurity and defense systems and provide them to their customers is a huge advantage over individuals needing to protect themselves. • Managing assets with financial institutions allows them to pool and lend them, which accelerates overall economic growth. • Currently, fewer than 1 percent of assets in the United States that could be self-­custodied actually are.

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That said, as the blockchain evolves and new technologies emerge to make wallets safer and easier to use, self-­custodying might represent an attractive alternative. A potential halfway solution could be to create a new type of wallet that is partially custodial and partially noncustodial. It would better protect a percentage of one’s assets yet free up the rest to benefit from new, positively disruptive services that require visibility.

Self-­Driving Banks The current banking system has regulators applying reactive rules, in the hope of minimizing the damage of greed and incompetence. Assuming perfect programming and security—­a rather optimistic goal—­DeFi banking could turn all this on its head by removing both the initial human greed and the regulators necessary to control it. DeFi banks could benefit both savers and borrowers alike with algorithms to find the best rates and directly match or swap them. By eliminating human intermediaries, they could minimize risks of error, fraud, corruption, and discrimination. On the other hand, their speed, automation, increased liquidity, and potential for volatility and hacking present significant challenges. Governments and regulators do understand the greater efficiency of DeFi banks and their potential to access huge pools of capital and liquidity and dramatically lower the financial drag (costs) of running today’s highly regulated banking systems. They are aware this will make banking cheaper and more accessible to a broader range of customers (through fewer controls and less bureaucracy), but also understand these new target users are the group often most in need of supervisory protection.

Asset Tokenization As discussed earlier, tokens represent an extremely flexible way to increase the base of holders in a wide range of illiquid or

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highly priced assets, such as real estate, art, and collectibles. Used creatively, they can also be used as an alternative way of trading traditional markets, with much greater flexibility, liquidity, and transparency, and at a much lower cost.

Manufacturing and Production “Innovation is seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought.” —­Dr. Albert Szent-­Györgyi

The first significant substitution of technology for human labor occurred in farming, manufacturing, and production. The advantages in terms of speed, efficiency, cost, and safety were hard to deny. Although adoption was not instantaneous, once a clear foothold was established, the competitive markets accelerated the process.

Labor Substitution Initially, the mantra was if you incorporate technology (robotics, software, etc.), you can improve your profitability; later, it became if you incorporate technology, you might be able to stay in business. With the decreasing cost of technology and increased cost of labor, the break-­even point of installing automation continues to decrease in many industries—­from large-­scale industrial production to the smallest entrepreneurial ventures. Today, technology can be integrated at every stage in the process: • Design • Ordering • Manufacturing • Production oversight and quality control

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• Packaging • Shipping It can also be used in many support functions: • Client service • Promotion (advertising, public relations, social media) • Accounting and other administrative functions The rapid advances in additive manufacturing will continue to accelerate this trend, allowing for increased decentralization and customization of many production processes. The number of materials that can now be used to print has dramatically increased the functionality. The ability to produce locally and on demand is extremely attractive. It is, in essence, the culmination of just-­ in-­time supply management. The decreasing cost of many 3D printers makes them viable not only for small businesses but for consumer use as well, which could amplify overall disruption.

National Security Considerations Many countries are increasingly concerned about dependency on foreign manufacturing, particularly from China. Although hidden in plain sight for years, the COVID pandemic brought this situation clearly into the public eye—­ initially through shortages of personal protection equipment (PPE), but then through supply chain issues with virtually everything else. These ranged from the mundane but completely necessary, such as screws and minor parts, to appliances, all the way up the chain, to vital materials, pharmaceuticals, and sensitive high-­technology components. Recently, there has been heightened concern regarding the rapid expansion of miniature devices connected through IoT and embedded in products as mundane as lightbulbs or toasters that

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can be used to track individuals (or even spy on them). The fact that this data can end up in the hands of foreign governments with the ability to store, manipulate, and use it has also increased the urgency to manufacture more goods onshore. Manufacturing is a broad term. Obviously, the simpler the item, the easier to manufacture. However, in the quest for national self-­sufficiency, health-­and military-­related industries rank near the top. Governments understand they cannot afford to be dependent on imports for vital pharmaceuticals, medical supplies and equipment, and necessary components for military applications. As the vaccine shortage highlighted, in extreme circumstances, one can’t even depend on one’s closest allies.

Public Policy Initiatives There is a growing awareness and activism in developed countries regarding pollution, labor conditions, etc., that has also set the stage for policies to bring production back onshore. If successful, this move toward self-­sufficiency will require the restructuring of many economies. The initial stimulus should lead to more employment; however, labor and subsequent price inflation could actually accelerate the use of frontier technologies to reduce costs.

Nanofactories Still on the border of science and science fiction is the ­nanofactory. The concept is to design and build a virtually infinite number of products from the atom up, initially using molecular reactions to create building blocks that would then be combined using a series of miniature “molecular assemblers,” resembling microscopic production lines. Each assembler would be larger than the previous one, and eventually, the product would scale from

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microscopic to fully visible. While nanofactories are a long way off, and the science is in its pre-­infancy, it is one of an untold number of almost unimaginable projects, made feasible only by frontier technologies. If successful, it would change the world and enable both highly cost-­effective and fully distributed localized manufacturing on a vast scale.

Physical Real Estate “If you are persistent, you will get it. If you are consistent, you will keep it.” —­Harvey MacKay

The physical real estate market is the second biggest by asset value, which is hardly surprising, since everyone needs somewhere to live. In most places, it has been a discontinuous (particularly on the residential side), old-­fashioned market, governed by relationships and often confusing to the buyer. The laws vary greatly from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, verifying title is often onerous, the paperwork often overwhelming, the insurance policies unintelligible, and the list goes on. The frictional financial costs of entry and exit are high, and the associated intangibles, such as moving, are often onerous. A 2020 survey revealed moving to be slightly more stressful than divorce. Having been so lightly impacted by computers, digitization represents an enormous opportunity. And despite historical Luddism, many retail estate experts admit having adopted more technology during the COVID pandemic than at any time during the preceding decade. An industry that has seen very little technology adoption is now both open to it and starting to use it. The commercial sector has been somewhat more sophisticated but still lags many industries around the world. It is complicated by the new phenomena of work from home (WFH) and

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work from anywhere (WFA) and the associated new technologies that more seamlessly link people/groups, limiting the need for physical space. That said, there remain many reasons companies might choose to stick predominately with an in-­office operating paradigm. These can include the following: • It is easier to manage people in one location. • More informal (water cooler) interactions lead to better relationships, stronger organizational identity, and orchestrated serendipity. • There is potentially higher productivity. • In startups and technology companies (and others as well), unfettered collaboration can lead to higher levels of creativity and energy. Every aspect of real estate, from site planning to sale, will be impacted by developments in technology: • Design/architecture. This was an early frontier technology adopter, starting from the early years of CAD/CAM. Sophistication has increased dramatically, allowing for more flexible buildings, with higher energy efficiency, and better IT/ communications infrastructure. The adoption of AR/VR and immersive technologies will allow building walk-­ throughs and testing even before a foundation is begun. • Materials. Using computer-­ formulated, efficient materials produced with sustainable energy, which are pre-­chosen for their upcycling potential, can save significant waste and pollution. • Manufacturing. Efficiency can be increased through shortening the supply chain and shifting to on-­site additive manufacturing, etc. • Construction. This includes optimizing worksite flows and scheduling, better planning for supply chain logistics,

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s­ ignificantly increasing the use of robotics, and using additive manufacturing for large portions of buildings (all, in some cases). • Documentation. Real estate should be a poster child for the blockchain, smart contracts, and AI processing. • Financing. Many aspects are process-­driven and contractual, making them ideal for blockchain and smart contracts. More and more financing is driven through apps that continue to evolve and deal with details without human intervention. • Sales. COVID turbocharged the evolution of virtual sales. Now, most buildings and apartments not only have excellent pictures but can be virtually visited in 3D. Websites, with access to listings and large proprietary followings, often eliminate the need for salespeople and can set up visits, etc. Continued infotech evolution will greatly diminish the need for salespeople and thereby lower average transactional costs. • Maintenance and energy consumption. Smart systems, with advanced diagnostics, combined with robotic systems, will completely change the human resource–heavy aspects of much real estate maintenance and offer significant energy-­ saving opportunities. • Security and safety. Improved video and transmission technologies help protect properties. • Real estate on the blockchain. There is a drive to tokenize and fractionalize real estate because of its size and illiquidity. This could increase efficiency by better separating ownership and use and allowing many more participants to invest in global real estate. This could be achieved by recording all key building information (leases, maintenance, building codes, debt, etc.) to a blockchain, making information readily available, transparent, and verifiable. Real estate remains

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surprisingly opaque; on the blockchain, with a liquid and transparent token market, information flow would increase dramatically, leading to “smarter” buildings and greater overall efficiency.

Energy “When I was young, I was scared of the dark. Now when I see my electricity bill I am scared of the lights.” —­Anonymous

The energy sector is not only vital to every economy but is also pivotal to the ecological future of the planet. Whereas in most sectors the current evolution of technology created clear counterbalancing positives and negatives, the impact on the energy sector is asymmetrically positive. This is likely to occur on four key fronts: • In the short-­term, increasing efficiency will generate the most benefits. This will occur along the entire chain, from production to distribution, storage, and use; it will affect every sector—­industrial, commercial, and consumer. Frontier technology–powered energy intelligence platforms will monitor and adapt energy assets and their performance from generation to consumption. It will detect problems and inefficiencies caused by equipment, workers, or simply poor process management, and allow for both immediate and longer-­term improvements. With the evolution of IoT, many existing energy drains can be converted into useful links in distribution, as equipment such as refrigerators, hot water tanks, computers, and a considerable number of smaller appliances can communicate with one another and become storage devices for excess energy. There is an opportunity for

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a new self-­sufficient smart network that can manage itself without human intervention, using, storing, and giving back energy as required. Future advances in superconductivity could greatly magnify the impact, further revolutionizing energy transmission, storage, and management. Another rapidly expanding technology-­enabled field is the storage of energy within water systems and even the actual structural elements of buildings themselves. At the same time, battery technology is improving rapidly in industrial, transportation, and all consumer and business applications. Although most batteries still require highly toxic and scarce materials, increases in their efficiency allow for the substitution out of even more polluting alternatives (e.g., internal combustion engines). In the longer run, it is anticipated advances in material science will reduce toxicity in many batteries. • Eliminating energy scarcity is a multitiered process. It is not just increasing overall supply but being able to deliver to all places/people that need it. In the long run, this entails both accelerating the development of new energy sources and decentralizing much of its production. The good news is both solar and wind power are becoming more efficient, and can be used in large-­and small-­scale generation. The limiting factor is to reach a sufficient scale to become economically viable. This often requires political support (euphemism for funding) that might or might not be forthcoming. After long periods of struggle, both wind and solar power are approaching economic viability. This could launch a virtuous cycle—­attracting more users, leading to more investment and better technology, lowering prices, thereby attracting more users, and so on. Although the growth rate for both is likely to accelerate significantly, it is off a low current base.

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• Lowering and stabilizing energy prices. This is a pure function of supply and demand. Demand has continued to grow, and without aggressive implementation of energy efficiency programs, this is unlikely to abate. On the other side, as global dependency on unstable and/or possibly hostile nations remains, pricing volatility will continue to come mostly from the supply side. Short-­term demand spikes for reasons such as weather will also continue. Our guarded optimism stems from the belief that energy projections, both supply and demand, continue to be based on linear assumptions, while technological advances are in fact exponential. • Improving the environment. Although many initiatives around the globe focus on the environment, with some measurable impact, truly meaningful implementation requires major behavioral change. Unfortunately, this rarely occurs without real economic incentives. To the extent it is clearly in individuals’ or organizations’ short-­term economic interest to conserve energy, they are likely to do so. More important, as clean energy becomes less expensive than carbon-­based and as its availability increases, user patterns will shift. At that point, the environment will be one of the big winners—­not because of purposeful action but merely as a collateral beneficiary.

Longer-­Term Behavioral Change For most major initiatives to take hold, they require a combination of strong support and an intangible connection to the current “zeitgeist.” Consumption habits are encouraged by those

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already entrenched who benefit from the status quo. “Encouraged” is a catchall euphemism that comprises a whole range of different activities: • Advertising • Public relations • Social media • Sponsorships • Film placements • Campaign contributions (and other forms of political “support”) • Behavioral science-­based nudge techniques Whether the approaches to selling products are salubrious or not, they entail a huge amount of effort and expense. The impetus for change rarely originates from the incumbent, but rather from disruptive newcomers. In the past, displacement was difficult. However, today’s technologies allow for less expensive original research and development, prototype creation, production, and the development of new lines direct to businesses and consumers rather than traditional distribution chains; furthermore, the ability through social media to influence opinion has evolved dramatically. Regardless, change is neither easy nor rapid. Nevertheless, significant challenges are anticipated over the next few decades to many currently accepted production and consumption practices. These need not only originate from creators of new products; they can be strongly encouraged by consumers clearly voicing desires for different things and following through in their use patterns.

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Entertainment “Don’t confuse having a career with having a life.” —­Hillary Clinton

Virtually every aspect of the entertainment business is either on the verge of, or fully engaged in, a massive paradigmatic—­one might even say existential—­period of change. Technology continues to push the world in a direction of less employment and, therefore, more leisure time. This would point to an increased need for diverse (some old, some new) types of entertainment. At the same time, technology is affecting all aspects within the entertainment industry itself.

Content Creation It is hard to believe it has been almost five decades since Industrial Light & Magic, a revolutionary motion-­picture special effects company, heralded an entirely new way in which visual arts were presented. The special effects created for Star Wars were unlike anything anyone had ever experienced. Huge numbers of new specialists emerged, using what would now be classified as primitive technology to create environments that enhanced live action. Over time, with tremendous audience acceptance and rapidly improving technology, this specialist area expanded into an entire industry comprising both computer-­generated imagery (CGI) and extraordinary animation. Today, directors have an array of tools at their disposal, even using entire prerecorded scenes of any geographic location in the world, at any time of the day, in which they can embed customizable components, such as clouds, rain, vehicles, and anything else they can imagine. These novel studios allow seamless filming of real actors in any location in the world, yet

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produced in a single studio. This dramatically increases flexibility, lowers costs, and simplifies logistics. It also limits the environmental impacts of travel and being on location. Traditional movie skills and support services, such as camera operators, location finders, make-­up artists, on-­location food, transport, and security, will fast disappear, to be replaced by an army of creatives, systems builders, designers, and avatar creators. At the same time, the technology that now creates deep fakes, can also allow superstars to be replicated, lowering the time they need to commit to any project and, for the moment, possibly opening more opportunities for them. However, when will human superstars cease to be needed at all? Just think about the decrease in aggravation alone.

Content Delivery We are experiencing a revolution in how we interact with entertainment. Traditional options of listening and watching at home have expanded. The future of actual live entertainment could be totally redefined with the ability to watch at home and interact virtually.

Movies Years of expanding and improving options at home—­the 85-­inch HDTV home theater for as little as the price of 50 movie tickets, and holography not far away—­could spell an end for the traditional movie theater. The pandemic did its best to put the final nails in the coffin; however, the human need to congregate, combined with the industry’s attempt to create an enhanced experience, replete with dining, drinking, and clearly better sounds and effects than currently possible at home, will probably, at the least, delay its demise.

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Live Performance Nothing replaces the aesthetic experience of a live performance and the actual visceral experience of being around others, in ­person, experiencing the same activity at the same time. Live sports also remain vibrant. The human desire for companion­ ship won’t disappear; however, rapidly advancing haptics, VR, and sensory integration technology are likely to have some impact. Clearly, this has huge crossovers with the metaverse. In fact, as of this writing, in the music industry, Abba is currently on a world tour as avatars in the metaverse. Imagine the power of frontier technology–based bands creating music and videos perfectly tailored to each of our own preferences, changing constantly with our moods. Or even changing them.

Traditional Television/Radio With increasing alternative delivery mechanisms and the ability through even basic technology to bypass the advertising that underpins the industry, it is hard to envision a prosperous future for the sector in anything like its current format.

Cable/Satellite/Cellular With the decline of television and radio, cable, satellite and cellular are likely to dominate as access points. It is not clear which will prevail—­the battle is on. Each has advocates and inherent strengths and weaknesses. It is very hard to gauge short-­to medium-­term market share evolution. In the long run, as communications technology continues to evolve, hardwired formats are unlikely to prevail. Their cost of installation and lack of

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flexibility make sense only when the alternatives are more expensive and/or less reliable.

Virtual As high-­tech glasses, contact lenses, holodecks, and other revolutionary delivery mechanisms become more than curiosities, they are likely to attract significant market share. The evolution of VR, AR, haptics, and sensory integration technologies, alongside an advanced metaverse, also favor new delivery mechanisms.

Content Ownership A major trend over the past 30 years has been the shift of power from the creation and distribution of content to ownership. In the past, the value realization of most new works skewed heavily toward the original release. Today, a combination of ways to re-­show and repurpose material has changed the power balance. And more and more artists have been losing both the control and economics of their works. One of the potential benefits of advances in technology is the ability in metaverse-­like worlds to engage directly with fans and return more power to artists and content creators. Technology allows them to own, create, legally protect, and track and trace their creations more easily and at much lower costs. It also opens a whole new set of distribution channels that publishers and studios might find difficult to dominate. AI systems are already able to scan any recording and extract targeted clips (e.g., those featuring key brands or those best suited to specific customer segments). Given the trend toward shorter attention spans, this is ideal for short-­form media such as TikTok, Twitter, and Instagram and can massively increase views and open up enormous new opportunities for brands and artists alike.

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Gaming “Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy.” —­H. L. Mencken

Gaming could morph into digital worlds where many of the things created, skills learned, and scenarios experienced “in game” could translate and have actual value in the physical world. Unique assets (protected and registered on the blockchain) and digital characters could be traded, and digital skills could generate real-­world income. Many real-­life professions and services could morph into virtual gaming worlds—­architects, builders, travel agents, venture capitalists, and financial institutions to provide capital. An evolution of totally immersive, economic-­ based gaming into new worlds could generate many billions of dollars (even trillions) and be a positive source of employment and income to replace some taken over by frontier technologies.

The Metaverse “If you think you can, you can. And if you think you can’t, you’re right.” —­Henry Ford

As frontier technologies continue to transform our world and the Cognitive Revolution takes hold and increases our leisure time, the metaverse represents an intriguing, compelling, and potentially enormous opportunity—­ both economically and socially. And yet few are aware of the potential that exists beyond the current perception of it as an enhanced gaming platform. Given the level of interest in gaming, however, even a continued evolution along that front could be economically significant.

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Fully understanding the possibilities requires suspending disbelief and contemplating an entire paradigm shift. Let’s look at the world today through the following lenses: • Most of the world has been explored. • The population has grown dramatically over the past century. • Natural resources are being used/depleted at unprecedented rates. • The ownership of assets is extremely concentrated in the hands of a small percentage of the global population—­as it always has been. • Technology is advancing apace, eliminating many traditional jobs, limiting privacy, and changing how everyone does and perceives things. • Accepted norms differ considerably around the world, as do the levels of personal freedoms and social equality. • Vastly improved communications technology and the Internet make it much more possible for most of the world’s population to see many things to which they have throughout history been oblivious and, therefore, indifferent. • The miniaturization and exponentially improved performance of devices, combined with the reach of the Cloud, puts enormous amounts of computing power and data in everyone’s reach all the time. Taken together, this can be viewed either as a huge opportunity to build on the recent improvements in the living conditions of the underprivileged or as a huge risk of destabilization as people become less satisfied with their lives versus those of others they can now follow online (much of which is carefully choreographed to create an image worthy of following).

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Isolation has been a great way of maintaining the status quo—­one that has been used effectively by secular, religious, and military leaders throughout history. Today, a few nations, through severely enforced policies, remain effective in limiting their citizens’ exposure to the rest of the world. They rely on the active use of propaganda and harsh restrictions on unapproved information feeds to maintain adherence. Many developed nations, which have no problem letting their citizens travel, are concerned, however, about allowing others in and use restrictive visa measures to limit the flow and work opportunities. How this all evolves is anyone’s guess. With all that in mind, the revolution in technology now allows the creation of one or more parallel universes—a metaverse or connected multiverses—­where all the rules can be different. To understand the potential, one must set aside any underlying bias that these universes cannot be real—­that they are simply a form of entertainment. Instead, think about an entirely new sector that can create real jobs and real income and allow personal freedoms and social equality that the majority of the world’s population does not have and cannot expect in the near future. A metaverse could provide all the following (and much more, as well): • Through an avatar (a chosen/created representation), an individual can both initiate, and change at will, a virtually limitless set of experiences and personality characteristics that would be impossible given the real constraints of the physical world. • An avatar can remain anonymous or be fully visible at all times. Regardless, the link between the creator of the avatar and its manifestation in the metaverse can always remain confidential and protected. This not only allows for freedom of expression but also permits affiliation with groups that would be impossible in the physical world. It also limits potential

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incursions from “authorities,” excepting those imposed within the rules of the specific metaverse; and if those become onerous, one can seamlessly leave that particular metaverse and move to another—­much harder in real life (IRL). • An avatar can be simultaneously both multilingual and visible in a form acceptable or amenable to the other party, making interactions much easier. • Through tokenization, value earned in the metaverse can be transferred to the real world to acquire real-­world items. Value and assets can be built in the metaverse for spending in the metaverse or for real-­world purchases. • An avatar can acquire and sell assets—­houses, cars, goods, and all else necessary to live a full life. Take an extreme example—­a perfectly functional handbag can be purchased IRL for as little as $10. Some handbags currently sell for more than $100,000. The practical differences are minimal (they both hold stuff)—­ the premium representing a complicated set of factors stemming from societal norms, status, and marketing. To the extent one chooses to spend one’s time experiencing a metaverse and there is a status associated with one’s avatar owning an expensive brand of a bag (which can be resold in the same way as in the physical world), what is the conceptual difference? • An avatar can participate, or even be the performer, in a broad array of entertainment events, either in the audience or as a performer, concerts, magic shows, movies, sporting events, visiting art galleries, etc., which with VR, holography, and other enhancement technologies can parallel the experience of being somewhere live. The same can be true with many aspects of travel. • As your digital representative, your avatar can use realworld skills to secure an actual paying job within the ­ metaverse—­as a salesperson, a real estate agent, or a driver, among many others.

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• An avatar can attend a university, get a degree, or do other things that might be limited in the physical world. Some metaverse worlds may even require certifications, proved on the blockchain, to operate within that world. • An avatar can control or maintain a physical machine or item remotely anywhere in the world. For instance, an operator can interact with, and control, a physical twin of an item seen as digital. In the virtual world, the operator can see their own avatar interacting with the avatars of the people physically located with the machine. Simultaneously, the people physically with the machine can witness it IRL or in “mixed reality” with the operator’s avatar—­admittedly confusing to the uninitiated, but very powerful. • There can be research teams in science, medicine, engineering, or any other field established that are more inclusive and work more seamlessly in a metaverse environment than IRL. • An individual IRL can generate income by writing programs, creating products, offering consulting, etc., for the metaverse. • Experiments not easy or safe to conduct IRL can be undertaken in a metaverse. • Most of the benefits of the Metaverse can be harnessed without using/depleting actual physical resources because everything created and consumed is fully digital. In summary, avatars could have jobs and lives that parallel those of their creators as well as experiment with new scenarios and models and create completely new ecosystems—­all taking place in virtual worlds. Imagine a world where a housebound woman playing video games in patriarchal Afghanistan can sell her expert virtual pilot services to customers in the United States who see her

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only as her avatar—­Bob from Milwaukee. Imagine a totally seamless economy, open and safe to anyone, anywhere with almost no friction. Whoever we are in the real world, we can be completely transformed in the virtual world. Not only can this create real jobs, impacting the real economy, it can reduce the need to relocate to get a job—­a major practical and social problem, particularly in the developing world. Perhaps, above all, it has the potential to break down a considerable number of social and practical barriers. As our leisure time increases, we can use some of that time building, adding value to, and monetizing our skills in the virtual world. No longer limited by where we are—­and allowed to be who we want, doing what we want—­we can create financial value and continually modify our lives to suit our current needs. The power of exploration opens up many new horizons. However, the recording of all one’s past actions, as a result of the power of new technologies, means fully escaping our past has become almost impossible. Unconstrained by the limitations of the physical world, the metaverse can offer an unlimited number of worlds, each with its own characteristics, models, and rules, thereby opening enormous potential for experimentation and innovation. As new worlds can be created by anyone, anytime, anywhere, there is essentially no limit to growth.

Key Takeaways Every part of the global economy has already experienced significant change from both digital and physical technologies. The pace of innovation and adoption is set to accelerate exponentially. This chapter explored how frontier technologies will impact our financial systems and the wider global economy in almost every way: • There is no sector of the economy immune to technological change. The only issue is the speed of adoption and the degree of impact.

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• Consumer capitalism, with the club of central banks as the backbone, has dominated the global economy since World War II. Despite all its obvious limitations, it has helped billions emerge from poverty and set the stage for the extraordinary technological evolution we have experienced. • The current system is currently stressed, and some technologies offer potential new approaches for the future. Although some are extremely interesting (e.g., tokenization, decentralized finance, self-­ custody, and programmable money, among others), none has yet evolved as an obvious successor. • Large-­ scale manufacturing will continue to experience technology-­for-­labor substitution. Smaller-­scale manufacturing will probably grow as a result of 3D printing’s ability to customize and localize production. • The overall future of real estate—­where people will choose to live and work—­ has many factors and will be significantly impacted by frontier technology. In addition, all aspects of real estate design, construction, and management will become more efficient as a range of new technologies are implemented. • Energy will be one of the greatest, and most needed, beneficiaries of new technologies. In the short term, increased efficiency will provide the greatest benefits. Over time (potentially more slowly because of the enormous capital investment required), frontier technologies will support the expansion of alternative (green) energy production. • The entire field of entertainment and its financial model will be redefined to adjust for new forms of content creation, delivery, and user experience. • Gaming and the metaverse have the potential to evolve into an important industry, creating significant new ways to communicate, provide employment, and unlock immense value, all without damage to the physical world.

CHAPTER

6

Reinventing Work “Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.” —­Thomas Edison

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he common misunderstanding that impacts our forecasting and future planning for frontier technologies is we believe computers need to mirror what humans do, perfectly and with real understanding. Influencers and thinkers who guide our policy and outlook argue that artificial intelligence, and more broadly frontier technologies, will never match humans because they cannot master seemingly simple physical skills such as holding or catching a ball or cognitive skills such as fully “understanding” the responses a program might generate. This misses the point completely. Systems do not need to be human. Humans do not need to be systems. They can share certain attributes but not others. In the end, the question is not one of substitution but moving toward a productive and fulfilling co-­existence. This will 171

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entail a combination of productivity and a balance where both humans and computers can thrive. And this will certainly require us adapting. This chapter explores the following: • How we have arrived where we are today. • What productivity signifies in our evolving world. • Where jobs will be lost and gained. • The impact in a few important sectors.

Setting the Scene “The man who does not value himself cannot value anything or anyone.” —­Ayn Rand

A group of cavemen fighting for survival every day could hardly have imagined a future tending crops in a single spot. The resulting farmers would not have been able to envision a future dominated by machinery and cities. Well into the 20th century, only a few could even conceptualize the acceleration of technology and the concomitant changes in every phase of life. The same is true today, as people get introduced to the frontier technologies discussed in this book; although they have experienced the impact of some, very few grasp the life-­changing shifts that are rapidly approaching and what their roles will be in this new world. The following list explains our current understanding: • The dominant global economic system is consumer capitalism. Although flawed in many ways throughout its evolution, it has dragged a majority of the world’s population out of poverty and allowed for immense personal and societal advances. It is based on continually growing the pie and succeeds when there is a combination of improved efficiency,

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increased spending within existing markets, finding new markets to develop, and the power of demographics (aka population growth). • Much of our economic growth over the past four decades has been fueled by a steady decrease in interest rates—­from more than 20 percent to less than 0 percent. The consequences, whether short-­term or long-­term, of the current reversal in rates remain to be seen. • The world is running out of new markets to convert to consumer capitalism. Some exist, but the list won’t last forever. • The world’s population has grown immensely over the past century, stressing both ecological and human systems, but there appears to be a deceleration and a possible future global decline as early as 2050 (several developed countries are already seeing a natural population decline), raising the obvious question—­where will things trend next? • Efficiency has certainly improved and is likely to accelerate, but will there be sufficient new jobs to replace those being made redundant? • Since World War II, because of the nature of mutually assured destruction, unprecedented peace has enveloped most of the globe—­with a few notable exceptions. Underlying tensions are growing. If these are not resolved, the direction of technology will be even less predictable in a world of chaos. • Resources, as they always have been, are unevenly split along many axes (north/south, east/west, within most countries, men/women, racially, etc.). A wholesale change in economic systems would undoubtedly require—­ or at least entail—­ major tectonic shifts. History has shown those who have the most rarely voluntarily cede their advantage.

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• Among the dominant, economics is a function, not an end; power is the overarching commodity, and incumbents are replaced only by a more powerful external force interceding. The number of variables is enormous, and both interim and longer-­term outcomes are impossible to determine. Predicting the most probable (or even possible) outcomes will perhaps one day be the domain of quantum computers, but for now it is beyond anyone’s capabilities. Nonetheless, we cannot just bury our heads in the sand; we must look for realistic objectives. There is no single optimal solution. Understanding and trying to avoid disastrous outcomes seems a good start. Whatever the specific goals, the most effective pathway likely involves small, measurable, and achievable steps.

Productivity After several decades of rapid growth from computerization, every G7 country has now experienced a decade of low GDP growth. GDP is not solely dependent on productivity but is an important factor. Frontier technologies have helped increase the flexibility and efficiency of manufacturing and improve yields in agriculture. This has eliminated jobs in many areas, and yet overall productivity has not increased. Although on the surface this may appear a conundrum that has many practitioners of the “dismal science” all atwitter, the answer lies in the fact that most of the labor force in developed nations does not work in manufacturing or agriculture. In the United States, for example, around 1 percent are employed in agriculture and 10 percent in manufacturing. In the post-­ industrial world, employment mushroomed in high-­ paying, high-­ end service jobs—­ finance, real estate, insurance, and in some government sectors, etc.—­ many of which benefited from the evolution of technology.

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Today, however, although these sectors might still experience some productivity gains, the rate of increase has slowed dramatically. Other areas such as retail, food service, entertainment, transportation, law, accounting, and let us not forget the many branches of local and central government have not seen consistent productivity increases; in fact, given the aggregate GDP performance, many of these have probably declined. If we maintain our current mindset, which is almost certain in the short run, employment in the face of frontier technological advances will depend on two main catalysts—­existing jobs that can be done differently and new jobs that currently don’t exist. In the short term, improved systems are likely to eliminate more jobs than they create. In the medium term, however, some existing areas will expand, and new fields, completely unthought of today, may materialize. In the longer run, it would appear super-­advanced systemization is more likely to dampen job creation, but nothing is certain. Even as recently as the 1980s, there was no inkling the tech and biotech revolutions would revitalize the workforce in many countries. And today we unanticipatedly need millions of additional programmers and cybersecurity experts. Who knows what the future will bring? There is no way to predict what the future of work will really look like. Fortunately, the knowledge we have gained and the skills we have built put us in a unique position to change our trajectory completely. But it takes vision and effort. The status quo is always a challenge to overcome. Historically, it has mainly happened not by design but as a result of war or natural disaster. We might simply end up repeating history, but the extraordinary steps we have taken over the past two centuries give us options. We have the opportunity not to relive past mistakes. This requires redefining productivity. Technology will continue to evolve at exponential rates with which we will not be able to compete. We shouldn’t try. If we

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allow the world to become more productive—­increasing food production, generating clean energy, decreasing waste, etc., humans can become the net beneficiaries. As the dominant species, there is nothing preventing us from completely redefining what human productivity means. Part of what makes us human is the ability to do more than just survive and exist. Humanity is about learning, experiencing, thinking, exploring, creating, emoting, and just plain being. For most, even today, the greatest happiness doesn’t come from business success or owning another cool thing. It comes from interacting with others—­ family, friends, educators, artists, etc. It comes from accepting help from others and providing it to those who need it. It comes from sharing. As we face a genuine crisis spurred on by technology, there is both bad and good news, in that order. First, jobs will be lost, and the transition will often be wrenching. As this progresses, however, future jobs might be those more suited to our personal needs—­most likely less remunerative, but quite probably more fulfilling.

What Jobs Will Be Lost? It is inevitable that the tech revolution will lead to losses in certain job markets. It is impossible to say with certainty to what degree these industries will be affected; however, the following are those that are widely acknowledged as being at greatest risk: • Agriculture. Developing nations will continue to see agricultural attrition. • Manufacturing. There will be long-­term loss of manufacturing jobs in developing nations after a short-­term increase, as a result of efficiency gains and “on-­shoring.” • Transportation/logistics. Expect self-­driving cars/trucks/ trains, automated deliveries, and more efficient logistics.

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• Higher education. The current structure of higher education is both inefficient and unequal, with many fundamentals now able to be conducted remotely. • Real estate. Most brokerage functions will be eliminated or scaled back; many aspects of staffing commercial real estate will be scaled back because of automation. As smart buildings become more common, maintenance and management roles will also be reduced. • Law, accounting, insurance, tax preparation, etc. Many aspects of these jobs are repeat process tasks that can be automated and secured on a blockchain, with decision trees based on smart contracts. With increases in AI, even aspects that require judgment will gradually see inroads from computers. • Healthcare administration. Expect the same as in law, accounting, etc. • Coding. As they are based on structured languages, AI systems are perfectly suited to developing code. In the short term, more experts in AI will be required to set up operable systems. However, many traditional coders will gradually be phased out. That said, it is hard to estimate the time frame, as there is a gargantuan installed software base that will not disappear overnight. • Translation. Many of these jobs are likely to be rapidly replaced. • Financial services. The entire financial services industry and the roles within it have been changed by computerization, and this is likely to accelerate. While many traditional job functions will disappear, a global increase in customers through technology-­ driven decentralized banking will undoubtedly lead to some new job creation.

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• Writing. More and more content will be generated; however, much of that will be computer-­created, but perhaps human-­edited. • Bureaucracies. We saved the biggest for last. This includes both private and public sector and represents an enormous long-­term loss of employment. Given the huge number of jobs, this will be very sensitive. Many of these positions are well protected under current laws around the world. Laws will almost certainly change, but with tortoise-­like speed. Also, the trade-­off will be that if many are laid off, without anywhere to go, the cost to society to fully support them would be higher than their remaining inefficient.

Where Will New Jobs Come From? This is clearly much more speculative than job losses. There is the potential for many new jobs in many sectors; the issue at hand is that if productivity in its historic sense declines, GDPs will fall, and many governments will no longer be able to run deficits. The bottom line is that there will be no way, in the short run, to pay for them. If, however, the general cost of living decreases, then many jobs, although far lower paying, will be sufficient. The good news first: a benefit to almost everyone, technology-­ driven efficiency should reduce many key costs: food, energy, healthcare, education, transportation, and bureaucracy to name a few. The more ambivalent news: Many of the assets that have risen at unprecedented levels in an artificially low interest rate environment, particularly real estate, are likely to decline. This is negative for asset owners but will significantly improve affordability by reducing costs of living. In the short run, this will cause major dislocation. The longer run is much harder to predict.

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Within a new overall cost framework, with average compensation much lower, there are many areas that could be a significant source of employment: • Infrastructure. Developing nations are in desperate need of wide-­ranging infrastructure creation, and developed nations need both basic “brick-­and-­mortar” renewal and upgrading of more sophisticated functions to grow in line with the rapid advances in technology. • Preschool, primary, secondary education. Whereas higher education will benefit from the efficiencies of gathering information and disseminating it remotely, a huge function of schools is “socialization.” Humans, particularly in their developmental stages, crave (and probably require) human interaction and touch. Many countries have insufficient schools, and most (even in developed nations) now have suboptimal ratios of teachers to students. • Ongoing mentoring and training. Humans generally fear change. Frontier technologies are accelerating this rate of change. At key points of inflection many people simply freeze. As time goes on, there will certainly be many AI and/ or robot-­driven options for evaluating careers and perhaps life in general. However, dislocation brings out many issues not suited to pure logical solutions. These will require human interaction, and there will be significant need in all cultures around the world. • Eldercare. Although with jobs that require fewer hours of work, families will be more able to return to traditional care at home, the practicality of that care for a continually aging population will be logistically challenging. There is a gaping need for more facilities across the spectrum. Many functions, at some point, might be able to be automated;

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however, the human touch within this demographic is probably as great as it is for early-­stage education. • Healthcare professionals. Over time, technology will certainly be able to take over many medical functions; however, the capital cost of obtaining the hardware and software will make it unaffordable to a large swathe of the world. Also, as more treatments become available, even if their delivery is more efficient, it will still take differently skilled staff to handle them. Furthermore, health is a sensitive issue, and even with immense developments toward sentient technology, it will be a long time before there will be a desire to replace human nurses, doctors, etc. In any case, in the short term even wealthy countries are a mere crisis away from full-­scale medical personnel catastrophe, as a result of staffing shortages. • Technology. Although in the long run much technology will largely run, maintain, update, and eventually create itself, the pathway there is uncertain and, in the short to medium term, there is likely to be a continued need for new jobs. • Computer gaming. This area is likely to continue to grow, as are areas of AR/VR and related entertainment. • The metaverse. The positive lens on this area, as described in the first section of the book, is there are enormous opportunities for employment at every level. As these domains become more realistic and require more sophisticated skills, they will be able to integrate many real-­life services into these virtual gaming worlds. • Space exploration/colonization. In the short run this is merely a diversion for major governments and very wealthy individuals. That said, what would have been not only

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impossible but unthinkable is now firmly on the radar screen. In the long term, this could represent an entire new segment of the economy. • Micro-­decentralization. It is estimated that already around two billion people work in the “informal” economy. Much of that is by need; some by choice, others to avoid external control and taxation. The development of microfinance has shown the enormous demand for more structure in those areas with the greatest inefficiency; as countries develop and infrastructure improves, there will be more and more functions that creep into the “measurable” economy. With the ability to harness energy in small quantities, at low costs in remote locations, the range of opportunities can grow significantly. In parallel, the ability to deliver additive manufacturing anywhere in the world will make micromanufacturing, servicing, etc., a huge potential employer. The opportunities are enormous. • Physical recreation, leisure, and gathering. Although recreation with a “device” remains popular in developed nations and gains more and more traction in developing ones, sport and other communal activities remain important and, with more leisure time, can be encouraged. As these are often individualized or carried out in small groups, the number of people that can be “absorbed” to create and run them is surprisingly high.

Review of Key Sectors “It’s not your time that’s important … it’s your attention.” —Gökçe Gizer (GG)

The decline of agricultural and industrial employment is far from new. Frontier technologies will undoubtedly accelerate the

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trend but are not the underlying cause. The major changes in healthcare, education, and technology are discussed in detail in other chapters. Here, we have selected a few interesting areas likely to experience tectonic shifts in how they are structured.

Professional Services and Government Administration The post-­industrial economy has involved shifting many jobs from production to service—­so many that generalizing is fruitless. That said, within each field, there are components that are highly skill-­based, while others are much more process oriented. Not surprisingly, an overwhelming percentage of the content of any service job involves process more than judgment, which is an impending death knell for many jobs. Computers, particularly when enhanced by AI or even by machine learning, are perfectly positioned to execute processes more efficiently, more accurately, and at a fraction of the cost of a human counterpart. Furthermore, the less direct face-­to-­face interaction there is, as people spend less time physically at work, the more systems will be able to capture and replicate. The true differentiating human factor that is very hard for systems to execute—­or even understand—­ are our relationships and the intangible benefits that stem from them. Imagine an extremely talented and knowledgeable attorney with whom you can discuss complex and often delicate matters, someone not only with a great legal mind but also an astute sense of negotiation, common sense, and realism. Your interactions are invaluable. It is difficult to imagine frontier technologies immediately replacing someone of this professional caliber. Yet the current process itself leaves much to be desired. Imagine being engaged in a contract negotiation. You meet this

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attorney for 30 minutes and receive valuable advice, well worth the price. Then an associate needs to write up notes and create the c­ ontract. It is then reviewed by your attorney and forwarded to your counterparty’s associate to assess and discuss with their boss. If an agreement is reached, there is a contract; if not, a renegotiation is required, the process continues, and the costs continue to mount. Imagine the same scenario using frontier technologies. You begin with the same initial meeting. This time, however, your attorney’s smartphone (or equivalent) records the conversation, immediately analyzes the facts using a Cloud-­Based supercomputer, produces meeting notes, and then drafts a state-­of-­the-­art contract. It is forwarded to a computer at your counterparty’s law firm, where it is reviewed and any contentious items highlighted, to be reviewed by a senior attorney. After however many iterations, an agreement is reached, and the contract, with all underlying conditions, is encoded into a smart contract, signifying any future issues can be directly reviewed by the court’s computer system, again without human intervention. The entire process is streamlined, less time-­consuming, and more cost-­effective. Although not universally applicable, the more paperwork-­ intensive, process-­ driven, contract-­or regulation-­ oriented a task, the more likely it can be handled by a computer program. These might not yet be available, but versions are likely within 5 years, with many component elements far sooner. With evolving AI, even areas requiring judgment and negotiation will be manageable in the same way. This is not limited to the law. The same principles apply to many areas within banking, insurance, accounting, real estate, internal corporate governance, and far and away the most prevalent—­most government bureaucracies. Long-­term adoption is almost inevitable, with the exact pathway impossible to predict.

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There are three major sets of hurdles: • The time it takes to develop and test the many required systems. • The vast number of practical complications of transitioning from a human bureaucracy to a systems-­driven process. • Resistance to change from many directions, particularly by those whose functions stand to be made redundant. But counterbalancing these, the overwhelming combination of cost savings and improved results is ultimately unstoppable. There is, however, a true conundrum. If technology allows the elimination of junior attorneys, accountants, real estate brokers, insurance agents, government bureaucrats, etc.—­because their processing skills and lower-­level judgment are now superfluous—­ once all the senior professionals retire, where do we get a new generation of senior professionals with the judgment we want and value? There is no easy answer. There are just too many variables, and it will likely take a lot of time and trial and error for society to find the right path forward. One thing that is fairly certain— technology will likely play a role in the solution even as it caused the problem.

Transportation According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, in 2017, transportation and transportation-­related industries accounted for 13.3  million jobs in the United States alone, more than 9 ­ percent of the total workforce.1 The aggregate global “Tet 2018 -­Chapter 4 -­Transportation Employment,” TET 2018 -­Chapter 4 -­Transportation Employment | Bureau of Transportation Statistics, accessed April 4, 2023, www.bts.gov/transportation-­economic-­trends/ tet-­2018-­chapter-­4-­employment.

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employment is also extremely significant. The shift from internal combustion engines to electric ones and the evolution to vehicles of all descriptions no longer needing a driver on board will soon begin to shrink the number of jobs; in the longer term this shift will be dramatic. The path to widescale, unmonitored use of driverless vehicles has enormous challenges—­safety, legal, insurance, maintenance, and the list goes on. However, for reasons of long-­term efficiency, the environment, and ironically safety, as with most frontier technologies, it appears unlikely Pandora’s box will be resealed. Brakes might be applied, but the end result seems inevitable. Many believe the time frame to mass implementation will be short—­within 10 years—­others much longer. Perhaps that means 10 years is actually the correct number. As a corollary, the need for traditional gas stations will decrease along with their jobs. Also, vehicles, without the need for internal combustion engines, will simply become mobile computers—­easy to diagnose and service with limited human intervention. There go the mechanics. In the related areas of logistics and delivery, there are considerable efforts underway to automate. Leading companies in the area are already partnering/experimenting with autonomous vehicles for eventual replacement of their existing fleets. These include UPS, FedEx, Amazon, Walmart, and Uber Eats, among others. With their significant financial commitment and strong political influence, they will likely force the process over the next decade. Some delivery robots are already in full-­scale operation. Starship Technologies (founded by two Skype co-­ founders) has deployed small vehicles since 2015 that operate at a low speed on sidewalks. They already have completed more than four million autonomous deliveries in the United Kingdom, United States, and Europe.

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Informal Economy The “informal economy” is generally considered the part of the economy neither overseen nor taxed by any tier of government. Most participants fall into one of three categories: • The very poor, with limited skills and equally limited opportunities to develop them. Examples would be roadside vendors, home help, and a myriad of others. In many countries, some become very low-­level government employees. • Very small enterprises where the regulatory costs and necessary skills to be part of the real economy, make it nonviable. This can include small manufacturing companies, family farms, food stalls, etc. • Potentially larger businesses, with higher levels of sophistication, that simply look to avoid taxation and other costs of doing business involved with being regulated. For better (as a means of survival and potential to move out of poverty) or worse (to increase personal gains at the expense of society), more than 60 percent of the world’s population is involved to some degree in the informal economy. It accounts for a very meaningful percentage of global GDP and is particularly important in emerging markets. For obvious reasons, it is the group with among the lowest levels of technology use in the world. With the rapid advances in many areas of technology, the informal economy faces both negative and positive impacts. On the negative side, much of the subsistence, small-­scale manufacturing and agriculture is likely to be consolidated into larger and more efficient groups, leading to fewer available jobs. On the more positive side, the rapidly increasing cellular communication growth in many emerging market countries opens access to many new online

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technologies that can, in the short term, benefit many at the bottom of the chain in many areas: • Education. Online education requires limited physical infrastructure, fewer onsite educators, and the ability to access a broader range of topics and to interact with others both locally and around the globe. Increased basic education is the first step toward upward mobility. • Job training. Remote access to those able to teach basic and advancing skills across a range of potential careers can be empowering. • Communication infrastructure. Better communication with sources of supply and customers empowers—­at least temporarily—­ individuals and smaller businesses. Many emerging countries, because they never had the resources to build massive physical communications infrastructure, are leapfrogging developed markets in their cellular services. • Social networks. Bringing groups together—and using frontier technologies such as quantum computing and tokenization to better match them—­creates not just social but also business opportunities. • Creating/expanding online marketplaces. This enables goods and services from smaller players to be made available on a wider scale. • Expanding microfinance and microlending. This can expand by using a combination of decentralizing the collection of data (nontech) and improving the cost-­efficiency of processing through frontier technologies, enabling many more people to access the finance ecosystem. • Fintech. Cashless payment systems enormously improve individual and national liquidity. For example, in 2006, only

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14 percent of Kenyans had bank accounts. Today 83 percent have access to financial services. • Additive Manufacturing. Low-­cost 3D printing opens a large range of small-­scale manufacturing options, made feasible through microloans and/or cashless payment systems. • Power. Low-­cost and efficient solar and other local sources of power can be a total game-­changer in all aspects of those in remote areas or subject to subsistence living.

Gig Economy The gig economy for developed countries has some interesting parallels to the informal economy in the developing world, although many (if not most) are voluntary participants. Its emergence and evolution both center around technology. Some of these jobs have been created as technology eliminated full-­time jobs, others because technology has allowed people in many sectors to work from home and/or find jobs that they find more attractive than full-­ time employment. Examples include car drivers (Uber), delivery, e-­ commerce, real estate, and other forms of sales, WFH call center equivalents, tutoring, teaching, university lecturers, consulting, freelance work of all descriptions, fitness, etc. Benefits to Workers • Flexibility. Benefits include hours, commitment, and the ability to do many things at the same time and retrain or prepare for new roles and jobs. • Short-­term freedom. COVID-­ 19 accelerated working part-­time and from home or anywhere. The gig economy mushroomed, and many—­across all generations—­have found it appealing.

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• Cash. Cash remains king, and tax is just short of being a four-­letter word. Benefits to Employers • Lower costs. Employers generally offer limited or no benefits (healthcare, sick leave, time off, retirement plans, etc.). • Flexibility. There is no need for longer-­term contracts. • Less resistance to bringing in new technologies that replace jobs. They have essentially already been replaced. There are clearly many issues. Gig jobs do not lend themselves to people getting sick, having children, or retiring. Those who have jobs and fail to pay their appropriate share of taxes are a drain on all social systems and cause taxes to be raised for everyone else. And, depending on their country, they often will not have access to retirement accounts and other benefits currently offered in traditional employment. Furthermore, the human need for in-­person social networks is unlikely to diminish, and part-­time, remote work is currently suboptimal for this. Interaction often breeds creativity, though frontier technology–driven remote communications might grow into this task. Whether or not the concept of gig work appeals, it is here to stay. Technology will eliminate much full-­time employment, but adoption models of gig work will vary from country to country and from region to region.

Moving Forward: How Will People Work? The spoiler answer—­ideally, however they want. There is a wide-­ranging debate in full process as to how people should and will work. There are differing camps with widely

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divergent opinions. Having experienced a year and a half of partial or full isolation in 2020 and 2021, there are now many examples of how people and organizations were able to power or muddle through. And yet this largely misses the point. It is fundamentally important that work from home and work from anywhere, long discussed, have now had a full trial run. The practice of WFH is not new, but the potential scope is. Without advances in communications and IT, it would have remained limited to a few white-­collar professions. Now it applies to everything from teaching music, to meditation, to real estate brokerage, to at-­home call centers, as well as to bigger enterprises such as banks, investment companies, and law and accounting firms; the list goes on and on. However, not only has the period of experimentation been far too short to derive meaningful conclusions, but the technologies themselves and the ability to manage them are still in their infancy. Time and experimentation will undoubtedly facilitate many viable options. The good news is organizations and individuals will have choices they never had before, and there will be no single pathway. Along the way, much thinking will need to take place along a range of different axes, which include the following: • Centralized versus decentralized management. • Compliance and control. • Quality of communication. • Motivation—­self versus externally motivated. • Efficiency of work—­commuting versus home distractions. • Teamwork and collegiality versus individualism. • The best environments for creativity. • The importance versus irrelevance of informal interactions. • Economics.

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• The measurement of effectiveness and productivity versus spying on staff. • Burnout and loneliness. • How costs of WFH (heating, electricity, systems) compare to those of travel and offices. The outcomes will be divergent and differ by personality, corporate culture, and country. The outcomes will help shape the world. Will people want to work and live from home, and if so, how will that affect residential real estate? The results will impact the future of offices and where they are located—­cities, suburban, exurban, or rural locations. WFA could also increase globalization by potentially opening employment to all corners of the world, allowing for a global workforce operating in a seamless and unified virtual workplace. It could provide higher-­paying jobs to the developing world, while normalizing salaries in the developed world.

Rethinking Work For most, throughout history, work has not been a choice. It has been the means to survive; for many it still is. The industrial and post-­industrial periods have opened up a greater set of opportunities for many and introduced paid work for the majority. With so many technology changes going on at the same time, the number of variables is so vast that neither humans nor the systems we have built can possibly predict where we will actually end up. Almost certainly, however, it will entail reinventing many of the systems in which we all live. And there is nothing more fundamental than that. Although accurately predicting outcomes might be beyond reach, understanding key inputs—­basic human needs—­is not.

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Neither is working hard to make sure these needs are heard. We believe there are three fundamental constants that apply to all of us, no matter where we live, no matter the political and social systems: • Preservation of self, family, and community. Paid work has become the primary underpinning in satisfying Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Technology’s elimination or curtailment of many jobs threatens this primal directive. At the same time, its power to achieve massive efficiency gains can both lower the costs of virtually everything and address current concerns on scarcity of key resources, particularly food, water, and energy. The potential for abundance is real, even if the hurdles to get there are substantial. Even partial success, however, could open the door for a completely new definition and balance of work and leisure. • Security and stability. A huge amount can be accomplished during peace and stability. Yet, these periods rarely last. Many factors have always stood in the way—­ the less attractive aspects of human nature, geography, resources, the status quo, etc. To us, one reason stands out above all others, the ability of a small group of people to galvanize and control the world for their own purposes—­good or bad. And they have achieved this by carefully molding the message and by actively controlling access to information. Today, it has become considerably more difficult to achieve this. Technology has made it virtually impossible to “hide” information for any extended period of time. There are now an unprecedented number of means for most of us to communicate and interact. The power is real; how effective we can be ultimately lies in our own hands. • Satisfaction and happiness. Each of us has a different set of definitions and thresholds, but if we and our families are

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secure, there is a much higher probability of achieving personal goals, whatever they might be. Fear of change often holds us back. However, inaction in the period we are entering is the worst of all options. This is a perfect time to actively think about what is meaningful to us and hit our own personal reset buttons. The bottom-­line is, what do we actually want to achieve? With technology able to relieve us of many tasks we have done merely because we have had to, what would we want to do with that gift of freedom and time? Although a complex issue, it is neither abstract nor new. The significant increase in life expectancy has already put this question front and center for billions around the world.

The Constraints of Economics The positive human possibilities opened by technology can be achieved only if the overarching and underlying economics allow. Even with a great new set of tools, transitioning away from sets of established norms is unimaginably complicated and unpredictable. To start with, although the globe is interconnected, the number of different economic systems and ideologies is intimidating, and most, if not all, are controlled by entrenched groups with strong sets of self-­interest. If we use history as our guide, those with power are most unlikely to cede it easily. Incumbents need to see it is in their best interests to support change. Maintaining power can be, and often is, achieved through repression. For humanity as a whole, this is clearly undesirable. When people are content and secure, it is much more difficult to motivate them to change. We contend it is actually in the best interest of most leaders around the world not to fear the technology revolution and try to suppress it. Apart from being

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impossible, trying to understand and harness some of its positive potential is much more productive. The means are out there to lower living costs, improve living conditions, and help positively redefine what work and life mean in the post-­industrial age. The current paradigm of “growing the pie” and thereby enriching both those with the power and the population in general is very unlikely to fade quickly; in any case, it does have real benefits. However, the ability to continue growing the pie indefinitely becomes progressively more difficult. Technology makes it easier for us to achieve many of the same goals by simply “making the pie better” at the same time. Regardless of the approach, failure is almost guaranteed without the following: • Long-­term clarity of vision. • Effective communication. Finding a balance in accepting inputs, while still maintaining sufficient control to effect implementation. • Willingness to be flexible (or at least appear to be) in the short term. • Gradual implementation. People will accept change most if they don’t even realize it is happening.

Key Takeaways This chapter looked at how the world of work will be changed with frontier technologies, from eliminating many of our existing jobs to creating new roles and opportunities that could not exist without these technologies: • Frontier technologies are a long way from replicating a human brain, and robots are a long way from matching our overall physical skills. The threshold, however, to replace

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specific jobs is that they merely need to outperform a specific task or defined set of functions. In many cases they already can. Many more are soon to follow. This is the power of exponential over linear growth. • Most G7 countries have experienced a decade of low productivity growth; technologies can make a huge difference by bringing enormous efficiencies to many sectors. The need is there, but the trade-­off is a huge loss of jobs. Managing the balance will not be simple. • Employment will decrease significantly in sectors such as government (and corporate) bureaucracies, transportation and logistics, manufacturing, agriculture, secondary and university education, real estate, professional services, healthcare infrastructure, and, of course, writing. Many of these might structurally take a long time to implement as they are heavily regulated industries or unionized. • New jobs are likely to be created in infrastructure, early-­ stage education, eldercare, patient-­facing healthcare, scientific and medical research, recreation-­ related activities (sports, yoga, travel, etc.), technology (for the moment), gaming, the metaverse, and perhaps space exploration. If the rest of history is a guide, entirely new sectors will emerge that no one can yet envision. • The issue is much greater than simply finding a substitution of jobs for those displaced by technology. We are reaching the point when we need to completely redefine what a job is and, more broadly, how we seek to define human roles in the new post-­industrial world.

CHAPTER

7

Reinventing Education “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” —­Benjamin Franklin

E

quality (or lack thereof) is at the core of virtually every humanist and social science discipline, and many hard science ones as well. Education is a core element. In a “free” country, this can often lead to innovation, wealth, and a better society. The past 150 years have seen education reach a larger percentage of the population, leading to significant advances in almost every field. However, current Western education systems were built for the Industrial Revolution and its requirements. The technological revolution has opened the potential for even greater dissemination of learning. At the same time, it is changing both what needs to be taught and how that can be accomplished. What humans have needed to learn to survive and thrive has often changed, but generally it has happened gradually. Today, we find ourselves in an environment rapidly evolving on many 197

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fronts, not only simultaneously but interdependently as well. School and university systems differ greatly around the world as well as within individual countries. In the United States, for example, there isn’t a nationwide/federal curriculum—­ that power sits with individual states that then cede most control to local communities. Other systems, like the French one, are extremely centralized. Education reflects a particularly complex combination of historical, cultural, political, and practical issues and constraints. As such, there is no single correct answer, no single correct set of answers. There are, however, two key questions to answer—­how technology has changed what needs to be taught in schools and universities and how it is changing the way things can be taught? In the most basic terms, education should improve our ability to survive, function, and ideally thrive. These require the following: • Accessing information (listening, observing, reading) • Processing (thinking and converting inputs into solutions) • Communicating (speaking, writing, drawing, acting, playing music, etc.) • Functioning in life (survival skills, adaptation skills, technical skills) • Functioning with other individuals and in groups (social, religious/ethical, legal, etc.) Technology is not an independent category. It is a key component of all these elements. Some forms of technology can add complexity, but most provide tools that actually make things easier and more accessible to many. Historically, learning to read, write, and be numerate has formed the backbone of educational curricula in most countries. Students doing best in these three

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areas progressed fastest, tested best, went to universities, and have historically been successful in most societies. The other categories on the previous list have generally been treated as by-­ products, often important, but not the key focus of most educators. As such, students who have been creative, innovative, and free thinkers have tended to be judged as performing less well. Today, the paradigm has shifted. As communications and processing devices have proliferated, access to information has become much easier. One no longer needs to buy or borrow hard copies of books, as they are instantly available online. Reading is becoming less important as technology converts the written word into the spoken word. Handwriting has already become largely obsolete. Even typing can be bypassed by voice recognition software, which is often much faster and becoming as accurate. Most mathematical problems can be solved simply by accessing one of many apps. What is perhaps changing fastest and might prove to be the greatest game changer is technology becoming easier to use. In the Internet’s Dark Ages—­not so long ago—­searches needed to be specifically worded and even punctuated exactly. This required a high level of learned expertise to both access and process information. Today three things have evolved and will continue to do so at an accelerating rate: • Search engines. Most searches have built-­in intelligence that provides a broad scale tolerance of phrasing and even spelling. • AI. AI learns your searches to customize and refine them. • Chatbots. With the likes of ChatGPT, searching is no longer limited to finding a concrete answer, or even an opinion. Even today in its early generations, it can formulate a full and balanced essay.

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This leads back to the serious philosophical and practical question, what is the long-­term role of the human race and how do we educate future generations? If we are destined to rely entirely on computers to solve all our problems, education should eventually focus solely on communicating, functioning in life, interacting with others, and in dealing with society. Regardless of potential longer-­term outcomes, there are eight billion people living now and entire educational infrastructures already in place. It is hard to imagine anything but a gradual transition. No matter what decisions are made in different places, the following elements are extremely important: • Acknowledging technology. Luddism is certain to occur in many jurisdictions. It will create a divide of the haves and have-­nots. The more this can be avoided, the fewer the conflicts. • Embracing technology. It will be important to design curricula that make the best use of technologies that are readily available and flexible to the exponentially accelerating “replacement” cycles that will continue to take place. • Understanding the limitations of technology. There is an inevitable excitement surrounding something new. However, beware the Law of Cybernetic Entomology—­there is always one more bug. Human skills should not be eliminated until they have been proven redundant. • Focusing on human judgment. Technology is taking over many steps in decision-­making processes. There are likely to be sins of commission—­errors made by computers or deliberately hacked by individuals. If humans no longer understand how to conduct each step themselves, how will they be able to detect any flaws? Even more important are sins of omission. While a solution might not be flawed, it may be only one of

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many possible outcomes. The right one is likely to be situation-­specific and require human “judgment.” Losing the experience and skills necessary to come up with judgments is potentially extremely dangerous. • Encouraging and nurturing creativity. There are no bounds to creativity—­it is unique to each individual. Even as computers become able to achieve extraordinary things—­ write brilliant books, create fantastic art and music—­these will only become an active part of an ever-­growing repertory. If we manage them correctly and educate ourselves appropriately, computers will not replace humans, only supplement them. Focusing time and effort on nurturing creativity will be crucial to maximizing our evolutionary potential. • Emphasizing and supporting human interaction. Groups have always been a vital part of humanity on virtually every level. It is hard to imagine this changing. Every part of our lives involves community, and we learn lessons from all of them, often incidentally. School and university are environments created to specifically learn how to work with others and to enjoy experimentation. • Maintaining the ability to act in crisis (self-­preservation). If we gradually cede all steps in decision-­making to computers, we can no longer understand or take control of the process. What happens if a dystopian scenario does emerge where decisions are made to benefit computers and not us? • Educating educators. In a rapidly evolving world, no goals can be effectively accomplished without more focus and attention on providing teachers with the best possible tools and keeping them up-­to-­date. The good news is that using technology can be a major part of the solution.

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How Technology Affects the Structure and Implementation of Education “A man who does not read has no advantage over the man who cannot read.” —­Mark Twain

It is clear that technology, as part of the educational process, is virtually unavoidable. The bigger question is timing and content—­what to introduce and at what stage. Let’s take a look at each stage individually.

Early Child Development—­Home and Preschool As infants and young children, the most crucial initial “skills” we develop involve bonding and simple survival instincts and processes. Parents and family are particularly instrumental during this period. The next stages are primarily about nurturing humanity and creativity. Although not necessarily the best use of technology, applications are becoming more usable at younger and younger ages. Providing some, carefully created and monitored, exposure can help form a base for the future (also levelling the field for poorer children, who are often far behind wealthier children when they start school).

Elementary School This phase builds on emotional and socializing skills and sets the foundation for future learning and life. It is a time when one-­on-­ one attention is particularly valuable. Properly using technology in class is becoming a necessity to develop a broader set of tools; however, using technology as a substitute for teaching or in a remote form is less desirable.

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Secondary School By this age, students in most schools will have had significant exposure to technology in educational, entertainment, and social contexts. Also, many of their homes, transportation, and delivery of food and products will have been partially or fully operated by devices powered by frontier technologies. They will be surrounded by and immersed in technology, so using technology in all its evolving forms is natural and useful. Technology can also be a useful pedagogical tool. There are a number of ways technology can increase the breadth of education, while at the same time improving content, improving efficiency of delivery, and lowering educational costs: • Offer massively open online courses (MOOCs) or their equivalents. There are already many such courses available, and tailoring more and more to a secondary school audience could be highly effective. Why have an adequate teacher with mediocre qualifications offer a class that a massively charismatic world-­class educator can offer? The mechanics are also preferable, as students can individualize when they take the class, dictate the pace at which they listen and relisten when necessary, stop to read corollary information whenever they want, and take quizzes whenever they choose to ensure they have absorbed the material. MOOCs are often most effective when paired with individualized or small-­group tutoring and discussion (or labs). • Use conferencing technology to offer classes remotely and create a more inclusive and diverse classroom. Zoom and other such products greatly facilitate scheduling flexibility and save students considerable travel time for both academic subjects and nonacademic ones. It can also both

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expand awareness and make activities available to those otherwise unable to take part because of economics, illness, or disability. • Match students and teachers. Technology can now find perfect matches for specific students with teachers located anywhere around the globe. • Create teaching avatars. Using an AI-­generated avatar can specifically target the style and needs of an individual student. A combination of traditional and technology-­driven teaching methodologies can lower the number of teachers required onsite at any school, increase the overall number of students a physical facility can accommodate, and cater to a broader range of student and teacher scheduling needs. Teenagers, however, continue to require and benefit from socialization. A dominance of remote teaching would probably be a disservice for most students.

University and Equivalents There are many forms of tertiary education, with different sets of end goals. The content can be intellectual, scientific, professionally driven, or purely technical training. Residential universities offer an enhanced experience combining different students of different ages with faculty and both academic and nonacademic extracurricular activities. Forming direct relationships (for work or play) is important throughout life. During one’s late teens and twenties, developing these skills is particularly important. However, the high and growing costs with the associated burden would strongly support a comprehensive review including: • Can MOOCs and other forms of remote learning decrease the number of faculty needed to instruct classes and increase the overall quality?

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• Many residential university professors spend very little time with students, and technology has made students’ ability to access research remotely orders of magnitude more efficient than before. Will a new balance be established that results in lowering the number of professors required? • With more efficient technology, what is the correct length of different university programs? Shorter programs would allow a better usage of facilities per student—­either allowing for more total students or being able to rationalize the number of campuses. It could also open up space for adults to take more courses at different stages in their lives to both adapt to and thrive in a fast-­changing world. • Currently, universities, colleges and/or departments set various standard requirements necessary to graduate. With the flexibility of technology, degrees can be made much more individualized and flexible, allowing more targeted degrees and more contextually meaningful forms of assessment. • Technical institutes exist largely for specific skills training. They can add value at both the high school and college level, or any time subsequent. In many fields, remote learning could seamlessly be incorporated into parts of the program. Practical onsite elements can also be enhanced using evolving technologies such as VR and AR. The preceding examples illustrate how, as technology makes more inroads into our work and lives in general, individually tailored and seamlessly delivered educational and training programs may well become the norm and necessity throughout our lives. It will inexorably change how we learn, and that will affect not just our school years but also how we manage the rest of our lives.

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Key Takeaways This chapter considered the changing landscape for education from primary schooling through university and adult education, as frontier technologies are adopted throughout education and the wider workplace and society: • The continued evolution of technology threatens the underpinnings of most educational systems around the globe. The core values of learning to read, research, write, and calculate are being called into question. Those can now be accomplished by sophisticated systems, and ChatGPT is just the start. Where is the optimal boundary between knowing the mechanics of an underlying topic and merely being able to use a program to find out? • ChatGPT is the first major catalyst in the debate over how we adapt to frontier technology and best transition our educational systems. There is no easy answer, but we can no longer ignore it. • The use of a range of evolving technologies will increasingly deliver customized programs to students at every stage of their education. Different systems will be able to establish different balances of in-­person and online learning and be able to create individualized, more effective, and ideally fairer learning and evaluation mechanisms. • The rate of technology adoption will vary greatly, depending on the constraints of each specific country and locality. The impacts of this cannot be underestimated.

CHAPTER

8

Reinventing Information and Communication “If information is power, why are the powerful so ill informed?” —­Arthur Curley

Information Is Power There is a big difference between the knowledge economy and the frontier technologies on which it is based. In the early post-­ industrial world, the knowledge economy has, to a large degree, grown independently of many of these technologies. However, the massive growth in computer power has accelerated the scope and speed of data gathering and its use in virtually every aspect of our lives.

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Today, more than ever in history, data holds the key to power dynamics, and governments around the world are becoming more aware of the advantages to them of collecting and controlling as much as possible. Much of this is benign and done purely for necessary organizational purposes and/or with the best of intentions. However, it also poses a range of both practical and ethical issues. There are four categories of data collection: • Information voluntarily provided by individuals and organizations. • Information openly “collected” for legal, regulatory, or other legitimate reasons by public and private sector groups. • Information collected legally, but without the knowledge of those affected. • Illegally acquired information. Until recently, the amount of data generated (and even archived) was well beyond any means to mold it into usable formats. The acceleration of computer processing, combined with algorithmic advances fueled by AI, is changing the game, and both the public and private sectors are becoming scarily adept at making data usable. In the early stages of human evolution, all means of production were highly fragmented and decentralized. As infrastructure and communications improved, communities became larger and more interconnected, and it became clear that there were often large efficiencies to be gained through specialization and scale. This was true in agriculture, then in manufacturing, and more recently in post-­ industrial businesses. However, over time, as power consolidated in the hands of a few or even became monopolistic, it has often led to inefficient and socially disadvantageous results. In modern times,

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many governments have concluded that competition is healthy and have enacted legislation, such as antitrust, to ensure multiple players in any given area. And, in general, this has been effective. However, at the current stage of the technology revolution, where rapidly expanding a customer base is crucial, standards are necessary for interaction, and there is real danger resulting from the asymmetric power of networks. With scale, the cost per user declines while the revenue can increase. Profitability becomes heavily dependent on scale, with the winning network(s) rapidly attaining market dominance. They also control the standards—­ the protocols by which computers and systems communicate (such as HTTP for the Web or PDF for documents), shutting out potential competition. This not only drives profits but also concentrates enormous power in a few companies—­Amazon, Apple, Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Twitter, to name the most obvious. They rise above the fray and can essentially impose their will and ideas unimpeded. Although governments are aware and attempting to impose guidelines and limitations, they operate under difficult constraints. The geographic and organizational fluidity and speed of growth of many corporate structures (particularly with work from anywhere) makes standard anti-­trust regulation and oversight very challenging. Unlike antitrust laws that prevent prices increasing or services shrinking, the regulation of major technology companies relates to complex long-­term power dynamics that few understand. And, unfortunately, because in the short run these companies often offer more services, frequently at lower prices (or even bundled free to customers), governments that seek to limit these current benefits through regulation—­even if these regulations are in the long-­term best interest of individuals—­often meet consumer/voter resistance.

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Even more than for financial assets, it is those who control information that maintain the power. Consequently, if we build frontier technologies that control information, they could equally easily take away our power and our opportunities. Two of the world’s most successful technology visionaries currently have diametrically opposed visions of the future. Mark Zuckerberg believes in a world molded by human-­controlled frontier technology. In contrast, Elon Musk predicts a time in the not-­distant future when technologies themselves will be in control. Without attempting to be Solomonic, the answer is unlikely to be absolute in either direction. Humans, in some form or other, are likely to be engaged in the creation, maintenance, and change of systems. However, the level of autonomy built into computers will continue to grow. Zuckerberg certainly understands the issues, even within his own organization. Who, in fact, is in practical control of social media today? Is it the system or the management team? Who or what decides which ideas and products to promote or conversely hide or delete? Uncountable small decisions are made every millisecond—­orders of magnitude too great even to be monitored by humans in anything but a statistical framework. In essence, even in these early stages, the founders have already ceded considerable control to the systems they have programmed. How easy would it be for these systems to learn how independently to trigger people or use nudge theory to achieve goals they themselves had set? Today, thousands of behavioral scientists, developers, innovators, entrepreneurs, business leaders, and politicians develop and/or use a range of technologies and systems for their own profit, power, and use. AI is not yet sentient, and it may never be. However, it uses programmed protocols and then, through recording, filtering, and interpreting vast numbers of actions and results, can gain insights (i.e., learn), and use this increased experience and knowledge to make effective future decisions (i.e.,

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judgment). Within the original base parameters of their programs, whether to make a profit, increase use/interface, or promote specific political or social viewpoints or any of thousands of other potential agendas, systems will actually make most decisions. For programs to thrive, they must evolve, become more sophisticated, solve their own coding problems, and, most importantly, succeed in whatever their goals might be. These features are already embedded in many programs, and the sophistication is destined to grow exponentially. As with humans, this could well result in an inherent battle of “the systems” for the survival of the fittest (or strongest, most cunning, etc.). And this will take place far from the public eye, without any of us (perhaps even Mark Zuckerberg) ever noticing. Only machines will be powerful enough to monitor other machines.

Controlling Measurement As machines evolve more and more to monitor other machines, they will do the same for humans (and in many cases already do). This has tremendous implications. Almost everything we do in every aspect of our lives and how society functions—­all of these are subject to measurement. For example: • How well we do in school—­based on tests and grades, direct measurement. • How we function in our work—­based on evaluations, subjective measurement. • How funding is obtained for projects, either public, private, or charitable—­all based on measurements. • How social media targets its audiences—­very sophisticated measurement. • How groups are persuaded—­polls and other measuring tools.

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• How pensions and many salaries are modified—­indexing, another form of measurement. • How officials are elected—­ voting, another form of measure­ment. The importance of measurement is extraordinary, and historically the tools have been rather rudimentary. The science (partially mathematical, partially social) of measurement—­ statistics—­has long been disdained by more “serious” researchers. Yet the tools are becoming more powerful. Technology enables enormous aggregation of data for measurement purposes. However, perhaps almost as important, it allows for its customization as well. The following are two interesting examples that frontier technologies could now herald. Customized inflation indexing. Historically, the measurement of inflation has been based on a single generic basket of standard items. In grouping an entire country together, it allows only for a one-­size-­fits-­all monetary policy. A generic basket is appropriate only for an average person and almost certainly inapplicable to almost everyone. The primary reason has been the complexity of accurately collecting and managing the data necessary for multiple baskets. Frontier technologies enable a much broader collection of data and an almost limitless ability to generate customized indices. This allows inflation to be viewed as a matrix rather than a single number. There are broad implications to being able to view and manage inflation on many micro levels that can be very useful in many ways: • Individuals. Different groups spend in different ways and don’t have the same balance, assets, and expenditures. A basket for the very wealthy could perhaps include scarce assets such as art or sports franchises, or even material ones

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such as luxury cars, jets, yachts, or mansions in expensive cities. For many years these inflated rapidly. For Generation X, the basket might focus more on localized rental costs and more standard automobiles, together with food, technology, leisure pursuits, gym memberships, and subscriptions. Many of those decreased in price. The current generic index could still be useful for the middle classes, while a series of new ones focused on subsistence living (regionally focused) would almost certainly have different results. • Public sector. Clearly, having a range of indices would help better target policy initiatives. Particularly significant would be the ability to better manage public pensions and other inflation-­indexed payments. It would also allow better decisions on public spending budgets. • Corporates. Both management and owners could better focus on the efficiency of specific companies in specific sectors. To be attractive, an entity’s return on capital should be greater than its owners’/local inflation rate adjusted over hurdle and risk rates. Otherwise, capital should really be returned to shareholders, enabling it to be deployed into the economy more effectively. Particularly, with higher inflation, productivity gains are essential. Customized voting. Much has been in the media about the vulnerability of election systems. On the macro side, the interference in the election process of several “democratic” nations by Russia, China, North Korea, and their allies is a major problem. Similarly, there are concerns around the world regarding the inefficiencies of both traditional (mechanical and mail-­in) voting systems and the risks of going digital—­largely because of its exposure to outside manipulation. There are no clear answers, but the direction is clearly toward the digital.

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Moving the voting process onto digital platforms to make the current voting processes easier and more secure is, however, merely the starting point. To the extent a truly secure cryptographic process can be developed, many options open up, such as the following: • Better targeting issues geographically. Elections/referenda can be held in specifically designated constituencies. • Frequency. Because of ease of use, referenda and other items need not be limited to, or held hostage by, the periodicity of traditional elections. • Redistricting. This can be conducted clearly, and immutably, secured on the blockchain. • Better direct interaction. Technology will allow for much more customized—­ either individual or aggregated—­ interaction between elected/appointed officials and individual citizens, allowing for a much-­improved feedback loop. • Election data. Results and data from any election, referendum, or other process involving voters can be readily made available, limiting possibilities of fraud and fake news. • Ease of voting. It will be easier to vote on the issue rather than the party. While many will always vote along party lines, they often are more nuanced on the specific legislation. • Bringing more power to the individual. This is good up to a point. Beyond that, elected officials will spend even more time “selling” issues than implementing them. • Preventing complex issues from being reduced to the binary. Votes like Brexit involved many topics. The vote was a single yes or no and relied on many compromises by distant negotiators. More granular involvement by the public would have been far more democratic.

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Data Overload “Data overtook oil as the world’s most valuable commodity in 2018.” —­The Great Hack, 2019

The proliferation of data is already well beyond the capacity of humans to collect, sort, filter, analyze, and use. Computer programs already handle many of the inputs, and the extraordinary speed and analytic strengths of AI and quantum computing are vastly refining the most effective ways to use customized outputs. Most people find decision-­making difficult, particularly when the options are numerous. By presenting us with information we find more tractable, programs make the process easier for us, becoming necessary and indispensable to our everyday lives. Regardless of whether we consider the cycle virtuous or vicious, if left unchecked, there is every possibility these programs could become the de facto arbiter of our truth.

Fake News “The man who asks a question is a fool for a minute, the man who does not ask is a fool for life.” —­Confucius

Almost everyone tells lies from time to time—­sometimes innocent fibs, other times gross misrepresentations. The practice has existed since the dawn of time, propagated by demagogues, broadsheets, and propagandists of all sorts. It has been used to sell products, elect politicians, advance religious causes, influence wars, or even promote genocides. There are four primary reasons why the current incarnation of “fake news” is particularly pernicious: • The democratization of social media allows a much broader base to promote fake news—­and they do—­which makes it harder to track down the source and/or verify the contents.

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• The increase in total volume of publicly disseminated mistruths has reached epidemic levels. • The power of technological engines to narrowly target demographics and tailor misinformation for specific goals makes it dangerous at many levels. • Very few people can even see the tip of the iceberg, let alone understand the dangers lying beneath the surface. In addition, a long-­standing adage in the media business is that “fear sells.” Fear is a necessary primal instinct that from the dawn of time has allowed humans (and animals) to make a rapid assessment of whether to fight or flee. This primal characteristic is currently being heavily exploited by social media giants that depend on view time to evoke a response that ensures users react to and engage with their feeds. In most cases the ramifications, although insidious, are relatively minor; however, in certain instances it has gone so far as to trigger international riots and violent demonstrations. As we consume more and more information through our screens, frontier technologies manage, filter, and serve up curated news to us, based on what we have historically searched for and reacted to. This is another area where we are ceding considerable control over what we learn to programmed systems and those controlling them.

Fact Checking “Blind belief in authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” —­Albert Einstein

One way of counteracting fake news is to effectively check facts. There is an entire industry that has emerged to do exactly this. In concept it is great, but the current efficacy is disappointing. Certain facts are clear and verifiable:

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• Determining whether someone was at a certain location at a certain time is a fact. • Whether someone made a comment is also a fact, although if taken out of context, a long tradition in propaganda, it may not be a fact any longer. • Where one went to college or worked, and whether one has a criminal record, together with answers to a long list of other questions, are all facts. • Many other areas, however, involving views and opinions are much more complicated to evaluate. Using a blend of frontier technologies should prove fruitful in improving the process of fact checking and in better understanding and tracking those propagating fake news. Over time, building a “library” of substantiated facts and tying them to blockchains could further strengthen the checking process. Nevertheless, the process will never be perfect because opinion of some form or other is often embedded in what is defined as a fact. Even organizations like Wikipedia can be biased by the composition of its contributors, and many AI systems will use them as a source, as ChatGPT already does. Also, factual accuracy is often a casualty not of commission but omission. If there are, for example, 15 items in a statement and a fact-­ checker determines all to be accurate, even with improvements in AI, any other items not included in the statement but relevant to its context can shade its degree of terminological exactitude. Furthermore, requests such as “Please provide an accurate and unbiased account for the resolution of World War II” are highly dependent on the sources of the information. AI and frontier technology is also being used in innovative ways to review how information is presented to influence viewers to a selected point of view. If certain elements are consistent

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across multiple sources, they are more likely to be factual. That said, there will always be another program to game the system.

Echo Chamber Mentality, Freedom of  Expression, and Biases “Whether we regard someone’s opinion as a fact or as an opinion depends on whether they are criticizing or complimenting us.” —­Mokokoma Mokhonoana

Another big issue in the way news is disseminated relates to selection bias. The human mind is amazing in its ability to synthesize many different inputs, weigh them against prior experiences and personalized preferences and ethics, and reach sets of solutions. However, we have many biases created during our education process. As brilliant as the mind might be, the weakest link is the quality of information used. The filtering process used in search engines and social media to decide which items of information and which products are delivered to whom are based on their training. Heuristic AI models use an individual’s actual personal search and use histories. Over time, the more defined and confined individuals’ search patterns, the more search engines limit what they feed them. This simply reinforces pre-­ existing biases, essentially creating a closed loop into which new information and perspectives are algorithmically excluded. This is known as an echo chamber mentality. Try a simple test: open Netflix, go onto your account, and select your icon. An assortment of films will be shown to you including “new releases” and “most popular.” Now go to someone else in your family’s or a friend’s account and do the same thing. The results will be quite different; in many cases, the overlap will be extremely small. The system has learned what it thinks you like and shows you only relevant content. There is no serendipity.

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This echo chamber situation is likely to be aggravated by AI technologies such as ChatGPT, which are able to summarize and rewrite original content and redraft it in short form, dramatically curtailing our need to find, read, synthesize, and edit original content ourselves. While the program will undoubtedly scan vast amounts of information, we only see the end product. Although efficient for the project at hand, it prevents us from absorbing materials less relevant for current application but potentially very useful at some undetermined point in the future. In the short run, before the universe of information sources used by programs expands, and while the number of competitive products is limited, there is also an increased potential for program-­ generated bias. Over time, however, as users have a greater range of options and the programs themselves evolve, this problem may diminish. Another indirect impact is on the creation of original content. As programs efficiently abstract and summarize new content, users will spend diminishing amounts of time reading themselves. This will severely disrupt the existing advertising and subscription models for publishers and content creators. How will new content creation be funded in the future if its entire financial incentive and model is eliminated? Although disturbing enough in the commercial realm, the ramifications are much greater at the national leadership level. Governments all seek, to some degree, to create an echo chamber that supports both their belief system and their specific policies. For centralized governments with greater levels of control, these new technologies are particularly attractive. It would be disingenuous, however, to believe leaders in even the most ardent democracies are not already using many of these techniques as well. In countries that value freedom of speech, however, the ability of leadership to control the overall discussion is much lower as too many people have a voice.

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Freedom of expression is the lynchpin to avoiding an echo chamber. Every stated opinion will inherently have a bias; if the purpose is fueled by greed or desire for power, new technologies can greatly exacerbate the problem. And herein lies a great dilemma. Although shutting technologies down, limiting their powers, and/or cutting back access to them might appear attractive, is there ever a perfect place to draw the proverbial line in the sand? And, equally important, is it even possible? The only viable solution, and it is neither tidy nor perfect, is to allow, and even encourage, actively divergent opinions. The more there are, the higher the probability of reaching a consensus at a higher level than before. No matter how insidious the techniques used by these new technologies, no matter how much they attempt to create bias and limit freedom, if they are open to all (and used by many), their overall impact diminishes. Unless frontier technologies permit people to be offended and offend others, the hard-­won liberties that define a modern democracy will be under threat. Some guidelines can be set, and penalties imposed. But that leads to the clear question each society must decide for itself—how many individual freedoms must be curtailed to preserve the greatest systemic freedom?

Virtual Influencers “It’s better to be a fake somebody than a real nobody.” —­Matt Damon as Tom Ripley in The Talented Mr. Ripley

Although the role of the self-­proclaimed guru has always seemed odd to us, the fact that so many influencers now have the ears and eyes of a broad swathe of the population indicates there is still a need. The quality of influencers on social media varies greatly, but a recent development is intriguing—­“virtual digital models,” such

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as Miquela Sousa and Shudu Gram, are becoming increasingly popular. This trend has been spearheaded by the computer games industry, often a trailblazer, and the entire entertainment industry is likely to follow. Their main attraction is they can be all things to all demographics and do it faster and better. The company behind Miquela Sousa is already reported to be making about $10 million a year, and she isn’t the only one. A growing number of VR models are entering the $300 billion a year fashion industry. VR avatars are inexpensive and can easily and cost effectively scale. They eliminate all the costs of travel, venue rentals, photographers, stylists, drivers, and support staff, and, most important, they eliminate the need for demanding and expensive models and stars. Virtual influencers have been able to deliver three times the engagement rate of real influencers. Furthermore, frontier-­ technology-­enabled virtual influencers can learn from experience and instantly adapt to our individual moods or, more worryingly, change our moods through nudge technology, to better achieve promoters’ goals.

Privacy, Tracking, Behavior, and Deep Data “I don’t know why people are so keen to put details of their private life in public; they forgot invisibility is a superpower.” —­Banksy

In 10 years, privacy will be the world’s most valuable asset. Once gone, it’s gone. Start protecting it now. The knowledge economy is based on information, and information is made up of discrete data. Much of the data collected is about people and supposed to be confidential; perhaps it is now. Without serious efforts at protection, it won’t be in the future. Much is readily usable, some encrypted—­but unlikely for long. It has become so common, there is even a term—­data harvesting.

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Privacy is crucial, and we need to address it now. Ever since computers went mainstream, governments and companies have used them to collect data on their citizens, employees, customers, and prospects. Using frontier technologies, the social media industry took this one step further and gave away their services for free in return for collecting and using their data. This has led to the common understanding: “If the product is free, you are the product.” Government collection and analysis of personal data took a leap forward in the United States and many other countries after the 9/11 terror attacks, when both security screening and terrorist monitoring intensified. This was quickly accepted as the norm, and now we even pay to join schemes, such as TSA Pre-­Check, which, in return for holding even more verified data on us, allows those who pay to return to the pre-­9/11 security processes at U.S. airports. During COVID-­19, governments started working with companies on contact tracing and certification, checking whether people who had COVID-­19 had been tested or vaccinated. The two main contact tracing foundational technologies were from Apple for the iPhone and Google for Android. While claiming access to our data was limited and fully protected, the problem is once out there, it’s out there forever. Who knows whether it will be hacked or perhaps even “legitimately” used (most likely without our consent at the time) in some future crisis. In this new era, corporations and organizations have even started to integrate spyware onto employees’ devices and in conferencing systems. During the summer of 2021, according to an open request made to the United Kingdom government, Network Rail planned to work with mobile providers to understand passenger demand, journey times, crowding, and performance by “spying” on their smartphones.

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In 2022, the Chinese Communist Party moved against two of China’s most successful Internet and online giants—­ likely because of the power they had achieved. This highlights two trends: • Internet services and online games are channels that allow people to share and be exposed to information and ideas and cannot easily be controlled. • During the rise of social media in the early 2000s, people actively needed to sign into locations and enter data for the site to be able to identify and track them. Today, frontier technology–based systems achieve this, and so much more, while watching in secret. The notion that we are the product has evolved. People are no longer a product—­they are a node on a giant network, where they can be isolated and even turned off. Post-­COVID-­19, our behavior patterns have been gradually returning to normal. What is highly unlikely to return, however, is our privacy. Whether we actively consent or are simply unaware, there will be an increasing quantity of deep data on us, in the background, and frontier technologies watching us all the time. What makes this harder to manage is that regulators and lawmakers attempting to protect users from popular and addictive technologies do not always have popular opinion behind them, and their voter base certainly influences their actions. This has been apparent in the attempts to regulate TikTok during the March 2023 hearings by the House Energy and Commerce Committee, where a vocal element of the 100 million US user base voiced opposition to restrictions on the popular video sharing app (now largely under control of the Chinese government).

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Key Takeaways This chapter covered the power of frontier technologies collecting and managing information on an immense scale and how this will change our modes of communication: • Information is power. The amount of data generated and amassed through frontier technologies is enormous and growing almost exponentially. We have already reached the stage where only other technologies have the bandwidth to manage and analyze the information flow. This will lead to humans often being totally excluded from the loop. • Measurement is rarely considered an important form of power. Yet it often is how the following happens: ◦◦ How as individuals we succeed in life. ◦◦ How funding is obtained for projects, either public, private, or charitable. ◦◦ How social media targets its audiences. ◦◦ How groups are persuaded. ◦◦ How the financial system, including interest rates, pensions, and many salaries are adjusted. ◦◦ How officials are elected. • Not only are we required to constantly provide personal information, both online and offline, our devices and apps are constantly monitoring us, sometimes with our knowledge, more often not. It is surprising how little concern there appears to be regarding who collects and “owns” this information and how it is (or might be) used. • Corporations and governments employ millions of programmers, data analysts, and behavioral scientists to build systems to better analyze and utilize this data, sometimes

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integrating sophisticated and ethically questionable technologies to influence behavior. • The ability to generate, manipulate, and distribute enormous quantities of data is often used to mislead. In fact, an entire industry has emerged to create fake news or label legitimate news as fake. • Information collected on all of us is scientifically categorized both based on and to determine our preferences—­for commercial and political reasons. When we search on any engine or enter any website, we are spoon fed items that reflect our past interests. This creates an “echo chamber” mentality reinforcing a limited set of views and behavioral patterns and discouraging exploration. • Social media has fostered the emergence of a class of influencers who have replaced genuine experts; there are now even technology-­generated virtual influencers that are programmed to individualize opinions to exactly what their targets want to hear.

CHAPTER

9

Reinventing Control “Written laws are like spiders’ webs, and will, like them, only entangle and hold the poor and weak, while the rich and powerful will easily break through them.” —­Anacharsis

Security, Privacy, and Fraud

T

he world is full of manipulators, be they for personal gain or to maintain power for their operations or regimes. As most individuals are either inexperienced or trusting, considerable fraud is perpetrated on them. With the increase in speed and efficiency of modern telecommunications and growth of social media, the extent and sophistication of these deceptions has become alarming. Unfortunately, this is merely the beginning.

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There will be untold opportunities for fraudsters to use AI and other frontier technologies to operate their spam fraud emails and other phishing operations to monumentally increase their success rates. Once trained, these systems will, through incorporating repeat experiences—­both in general and with specific targets—­become devastatingly effective. Currently, spam emails are relatively unsophisticated and contain obvious, glaring errors that can be easily detected. Primarily they are targeted at the most susceptible, as fraudsters are limited by time. As voice cloning and other deep fake technologies improve and are able to deliver accurate responses, the number of targets that can be managed will soar, the success rate will climb, and the cost of running the operation will decrease. This will lead to a larger number of bad actors, all far more effective than those operating today. At that point, almost anyone, no matter how sophisticated, becomes a potential target. And it will be almost impossible to detect the fake. How are we to manage in a world where even friends and associates can’t know for certain whether someone is real or not? The depth of impact on safety, financial security, and virtually anything else of importance is unimaginable. What is even worse, over time, there might not even be human intervention—­the systems could be fully independent. Imagine the dangers this will pose. There is no single optimal solution. There is no optimal set of solutions. However, to limit as much damage as possible, a multitiered approach is required, starting now, that will require active involvement, large budgets, and meaningful interaction from all the following groups: • Big Tech • Big Comm • Big Business • Dedicated fraud detection industry—­a growing field • Local regulatory and policing authorities

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• Regional regulatory and policing authorities • International regulatory and policing authorities • Dedicated global organizations focused on cyber issues and cybercrime • Data collectors and holders • Military

Cyberattacks and Ransomware “The thief you must fear the most is not the one who steals mere things.” —­Ann-­Marie MacDonald

As the world becomes more computerized and networked, the rise in ransomware, and its damage, will also continue to increase. It is already a big business. Once fully empowered with frontier technologies and fully self-­ learning, without strong countermeasures, ransomware will become world changing. Yet much of the user base and the technology (including hardware) with which they interface remain surprisingly simple and supremely vulnerable. This applies not just to individuals but to most corporations, governments (at all levels), utilities, healthcare facilities, and any other category you can imagine. In fact, while most people still believe ransomware is merely a financial crime targeting big companies, who “should have known better,” entire energy network and food processing operations have already been shut down. The threat can arise from anywhere. However, the activities in countries such as Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia, where gangs operate without sanction, perhaps with actual official support, is particularly alarming. Clearly, this could lead to coordinated attacks on any country, targeting not only the financial markets but critical

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physical infrastructure as well. In fact, the future of the military, both offensive and defensive, is inextricably tied up in these issues. Why engage in physical confrontations when cyberattacks can be equally or even more effective? Furthermore, unlike a kinetic attack that our governments/ military are geared up to identify, resist, and defend, cyberattacks come under the radar. They generally hit industry, which notices and reacts first. This can be extremely dangerous. Imagine if, in response to its cyberattack, Sony Pictures—the first to realize its systems had been hacked in November 2014, well before the U.S. government—had fired back a debilitating virus at the ­hackers’ IP address. If successful, this may have taken down the systems of the North Korean government, the likely sponsors of the attack. North Korea might have seen this as an act of war and responded with traditional military force. The evolution of warfare already includes cyberattacks. To counter this threat, in 2021 the United Kingdom said it planned to create an offensive cyberattack unit to respond to such assaults and disinformation campaigns. The £5 billion digital warfare center aims to employ thousands of hackers and analysts within the next few years to allow the United Kingdom to respond with cyberattacks to hostile states. To establish computer supremacy, a single entity could create a frontier technology–based self-­ learning ransomware and release it. Such a technology could probe networks and send communications to staff, persistently, immediately, and constantly reacting to responses and nonresponses—­no rests, no breaks, no sleep, no limitations, no compassion—­ learning, changing, and challenging the technology and the people until it found a point of entry and vulnerability. Trained to succeed, rated on success, and constantly improving, it could almost resemble a living organism able to attack every organization, system, and connected person on the planet simultaneously and relentlessly.

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Imagine a scenario in which entire financial systems could be drained and redirected to terrorists, utilities crippled, transportation stopped or remotely destroyed, and every other aspect of daily life in chaos. The possibility of that future could be surprisingly close at hand.

Monitoring “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.” —­Benjamin Franklin

Control is based on influencing behavior. Influencing behavior relies on accurately assessing what motivates the target individual or group. Control can be exerted in many ways: • Rewards for compliance • Enforcing societal norms • Removing “privileges” • Instilling fear • Direct draconian actions All these methods of control depend on a key input—­ information. It is impossible to control anything unless one knows what actually needs to be controlled. Over the course of history, governments, religions, organizations, businesses, and individuals have continually collected, bought, and extracted information. They have used professional spies, neighborhood watches, paid informants, and the best technologies available to them at the time. The United Kingdom, one of the “freest” countries in the world, now has one of the largest numbers of surveillance cameras per capita, and London is reportedly the third most CCTV-­ dense city globally. Systems are now increasingly able to use the

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images captured. Other procedures, originally instituted to combat terrorism, include security forms and questionnaires when traveling or entering buildings. The COVID-­19 era broadened the tracking and monitoring protocols (track and trace, vaccine passports, drones, etc.), which previously would have been condemned as intrusive in democratic societies. Authoritarian governments are big users of frontier technologies to monitor, identify, and control those elements of society that have divergent opinions. Although not uncommon even in developed, democratic nations, a number of regimes around the world have proved willing to enforce their will in much more draconian ways. No matter which political system, the ratchet is almost always monodirectional. Governments rarely voluntarily give back the information and power they have taken; the goal, or at least the proven trend, is for bureaucracies to self-­perpetuate, grow larger, and look to control more. Technology is certainly a major facilitating factor.

Controlling the Media and the Message “Whoever controls the media, controls the mind.” —­Jim Morrison

Human history has been defined by the powerful few—­those who most effectively used force, those able to control the message, or both. Since the Industrial Revolution, in most countries this control has been exerted largely through mainstream media which could be used to manipulate people and influence decisions. An example in the United Kingdom (and to some degree in the United States as well) is Australian-­born media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, whose decades-­long vice-­like control of much of the British media allowed him to influence elections, government policy, and even who was elected to power. Although the

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focus here is almost exclusively on the secular, it is important to note that the universal fear—­the unknown of what happens to us after death—­also makes religion a core pillar of power. Today, because of the rapid growth of social media and the technologies that underpin it, neither traditional mainstream media nor religion has a chokehold on power. These examples illustrate the shift in power: • Google ranks searches through sophisticated algorithms. Where one ends up in a Google search is extraordinarily important for businesses, products, and sometimes individuals. A front-­page listing is likely clicked hundreds of times more than a second page listing. Google has, in effect, handed over the livelihoods and success of millions of people to frontier technologies. • The Russian hacking scandal was said to be undertaken to manipulate the results of the United States’ presidential election that saw Trump elected to office. It ostensibly used very sophisticated, algorithmically-driven false information to trigger targeted users most likely to be influenced and vote accordingly. It should be noted that most major countries try to influence the leadership of others. • President Trump discovered he could reach his user base much more easily through direct social media platforms (as President Obama had pioneered before him) because he felt the mainstream media deliberately distorted his message. The strategy was very effective. Some social media giants ended up curtailing his use of their channels. Whether or not that was appropriate, it raises important ethical issues. Equally important, it reflects the concentration of power among a few arbiters, controlled by a combination of willful executives and/or sophisticated AI programs, with limited human intervention. Interestingly, Ayatollah Khameini’s

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account was not shut down despite the incitement and racism contained in some of his tweets. We are at a crucial inflexion point, facing difficult and complex ethical and practical issues. Technologies are now improving to the point they can target and eliminate what their designers and controllers consider to be fake news before it spreads and goes viral. While this may seem like a positive step for social media in limiting the dissemination of toxic material, there is no clear and indelible line that defines what is and isn’t toxic. At this point, technology remains best suited to delivering facts that are clearly binary. Until AI progresses further, judging opinion is not its strong point. There are frequently different viewpoints, subject to different time periods and changing standards, that make absolute standards impossible. That said, who should be able to, and more importantly who is actually able to, set and implement independent parameters that limit the unfettered power of a few self-­interested individuals, and the algorithms their employees develop? Ironically, it may only be different algorithms that can handle the quantity of data and manage the complexity of the issue. With the amount of data these frontier technologies allow us to disseminate, only frontier technologies can act as monitors. Algorithm versus algorithm—­does this worry anyone?

Attention Economy, Response Triggering, and Deep Fakes “Any man who can drive safely while kissing a pretty girl is simply not giving the kiss the attention it deserves [unless he is in a self-­ driving car].” —­Albert Einstein [with author addition]

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We are quickly entering the attention economy, where considerable financial value lies in the data, encouraging a change in our behavior to have us watch things, buy things, or do things. This is the economic and commercial reason that frontier technologies are trained to engage and trigger us. However, it is not a huge leap from just encouraging us to actually enacting deep behavioral change. Unbeknown to most, the technologies behind social networks influence our behavior by neurologically and physiologically targeting a response. They have learned to trigger the basic human need for happiness and survival and their flip sides. We release hormones as a reward when we encounter or perform something positive for our survival, or as a warning when we face some type of danger. Social network technologies manipulate our hormones for their own purposes, primarily targeting a dopamine response. But they have to keep increasing the level. Similar to when a bite of chocolate releases dopamine, giving us pleasure, the second bite produces less, the third even less, and so on. Social network technologies games and even our devices want to maximize the time we are signed on, and use our own hormonal responses to get us hooked. US citizens are believed to spend a whopping 53 billion hours annually fixated on TikTok alone. In addition, as we travel around the Internet, our apps and search engines are tracking our every move. Almost everyone is aware of this tracking, but not of its extraordinary level of sophistication. This data is used to build a picture of each of us to tailor the digital experience. For the last 25 years, this has been mainly accomplished through cookies and location tracking. Recently regulators and hardware manufacturers have begun to make this intrusive tracking more difficult. In turn, as frontier technologies

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have become more sophisticated, they can largely determine this personal data using cutting-­edge behavioral science and mass data manipulation. They continue to tailor a user’s experience based on data we generate while engaging with each website. By matching our moves to the total data for all website interactions, they can guide us toward making the decision they want us to make. The level of technological sophistication has become even more acute. It is now possible (and common practice) for companies to track every engagement we have online; this even goes as far as tracking all our mouse movements. Are you concerned that wherever and however you move your mouse, a program can track you and, based on algorithms, modify what you see and even how you see it (fonts, colors, etc.)? Frontier technologies now have a massive opportunity to influence and impact social media and the message. Both 2020 and 2021 were years of the meme. GameStop, WallStreetBets, trading services like Robinhood, cryptocurrency, and C ­ OVID-19 isolation all created an environment that pushed memes to the forefront of the social media revolution. The combination of social media, the immediate and rapid amplification of messages and instant access to exchanges and bank accounts, all enabled by frontier technologies, has also increased systemic risk. This was experienced in November 2022 with Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) tweeting his concerns about rival exchange FTX, causing panic and a run on FTX assets that led to its bankruptcy. There were distinct similarities in March 2023  with a run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), First Republic, and then Credit ­Suisse and the potential for much greater contagion. It appears to have started with Silicon Valley VC’s withdrawing funds from SVB, initiating a concatenation of events that created an overall panic. Although runs on banks have happened many times before, the speed of information dissemination and potential immediate impact have increased risks immeasurably.

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Memes allow complex issues and even conspiracy theories to be disseminated quickly and in an easy-­to-understand way. Their humor—widely and instantly understandable photos with minimal word count—also makes them perfect for broad redistribution. They are created and distributed by people who have agendas and also those who find them relevant or amusing. Memes, however, are ideal for frontier technologies that can easily be trained to write perfectly tailored memes to push or counter any news or information they deem necessary—­rapidly and constantly. They can also continuously and immediately monitor the feedback and change them to meet demand and achieve a specified target. Frontier technology–derived triggers—­such as deep fakes—­ can become even more problematic. Deep fakes are a form of synthesized media where a usually well-­known person is replaced by a virtually identical likeness. By leveraging frontier technologies to generate extraordinarily realistic visual and audio content, deep fakes are often almost undetectable. They are created solely with the intention to deceive, and the ramifications can be scary, both for those whose identities have been stolen and those who have been manipulated. Unfortunately, the applications are limitless and the potential damage is unquantifiable. Moreover, the ability to replicate us digitally is accelerating fast. VALL-­E, a new AI from Microsoft, can use a mere 3-­second sample to accurately simulate anyone’s voice. While there have been other speech simulators created, VALL-­E has more scope for potential misuse based on the different way it has been built.

Nudge Theory and Incentives “The old believe everything, the middle-­aged suspect everything, the young know everything.” —­Oscar Wilde

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Another important and concerning frontier technology–enabled approach is nudge theory. Using indirect suggestions and positive or negative reinforcement, it seeks to influence behavior and decision-­making. Nudge theory is similar to the work of Professor B.F. Skinner on operant conditioning that uses rewards and punishments to make people connect specific actions with related consequences. The Behavioral Insights Team, also known as the Nudge Unit, was set up and used in 2010 by David Cameron (UK Prime Minister at the time). The UK government also created a specialized army brigade to conduct psychological operations for nonlethal warfare. It is currently active in social media, such as Facebook, to influence and expand the viewing/ engagement time of site users on key topics. Private companies, such as Cambridge Analytica, originally introduced these models and other companies, such as Palantir, now specialize in them. Some of the impacts may become disastrous. The combined power of nudge theory and frontier technologies is particularly concerning for innovation, as creativity needs free thought and action, not policed or directly prompted by frontier technologies. The early versions of nudge theory already seem incredibly anodyne compared to their successor technologies that have been blamed for radicalizing extremists, instigating terror attacks, dividing society, destroying self-­image, and exacerbating discrimination. And these were on platforms that promised to bring peace to the world using the Arab Spring as their poster child. Things haven’t turned out quite as expected. Now, governments and regulators are jumping in to attempt to regulate social media platforms, but the barn door is open, and the horses have already bolted. Regulators have specific mandates, many of which are parochial, and processes that are laborious and time-­ consuming. Often, they are also limited in their resources. Technology companies act and react quickly and are global, resourceful, and very well capitalized. Overall, it is a truly asymmetric battle.

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Regulators have some power to influence Big Tech and to slow down aspects of change; they can also, in some ways, protect their constituents for some period. Over time, however, their task is Sisyphean and Big Tech is left unsupervised.

Predicting and Influencing the Future “The best way to predict the future is to create it.” —­Alan Kay

Collecting enormous quantities of data and recursively applying ever more powerful probability-­ driven frontier technologies continues to improve the quality of many predictions. This can have enormous benefits such as predicting climactic events, improving the flow of power grids, optimizing communications networks, ensuring emergency services are at the right place at the right time, etc. On the other hand, the same algorithms can directly or subtly target inputs (people, corporations, governments, etc.) to influence their actions to better match the predictions they have made. Self-­fulfilling prophecies are rarely the best outcome when those making the prophecies have their own targeted agendas. Isaac Asimov, a legendary science-­fiction writer who wrote many of his great works in the 1940s and 1950s, in a thoughtful and nondystopian way, accurately foresaw the future of human/ machine interaction. He was the creator of the Three Laws of Robotics, which are still used today. He also developed psychohistory, an approach using a blend of sociology, statistics, and history to predict the future, based on the behaviors of large groups of people. He theorized that while the future actions of an individual are almost impossible to predict, the actions of a large group of people are statistically possible to forecast. And they become more predictable as the group size increases. The theory also postulates that collective wisdom can make better

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decisions than a single person or a small group of experts. There are now an increasing number of apps, particularly for investing, that use frontier technologies to collect the views of a large number of people in a club to make decisions. This reflects the same belief that a large and diverse collection of independent individuals can be equivalent to statistical sampling. And, as we have seen, frontier technologies now allow for this data to be easily collected and analyzed on an enormous scale and in real time. It is likely these concepts will have more and more applications as frontier technologies become more widespread.

The Military “It is an unfortunate fact that we can secure peace only by preparing for war.” —­John F. Kennedy

The underpinning elements of frontier technologies (such as silicon chips) are absolutely essential to the military and to geopolitical control. The next 5 to 10 years will be crucial in the power struggle between the two main global forces—­China and the United States—­although the European Union and other countries will also have significant roles to play. There is likely to be a pitched battle on five fronts: • The level of innovation in high-­end chips • The speed at which they can be delivered • Their overall availability, as well as the consistency of availability • Access to capital • Protection of intellectual property

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Using frontier technologies in both traditional military applications and newer ones (such as drone surveillance and warfare) has made traditionally secure borders far more porous and potentially unstable. Clashes between India and China over parts of the Himalayas, historically an insurmountable geographic barrier, is a clear example. Many actions taken in both directions with new weapons systems have changed the course of the war in Ukraine and accordingly ratcheted up overall levels of global tension. Perhaps even more significantly, the ability of enhanced computer power and AI to interfere with foreign countries’ internal economic and political operations has opened an entire new dimension in national security. There has been a surge in hacks that have brought down vital civilian and military infrastructure. In May 2021, for example, the US meatpacking industry was hit by a ransomware attack that took a meaningful percentage of beef and pork processing offline, putting pressure on meat supplies and causing major price fluctuations. Earlier that same month, a ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline laid bare the vulnerability of the United States’ vital energy infrastructure. In 2017, North Korea launched the WannaCry attack, which crippled parts of the United Kingdom’s health service for a considerable period. There have also been several cyberattacks on Iranian infrastructure, including water treatment plants and even its Natanz nuclear facility. In January 2023, it was reported quantum computing may have passed a seminal breakthrough that could change our world sooner than we think. An academic paper published by more than 20 authors from 7 different research institutes in China, titled “Factoring integers with sublinear resources on a superconducting quantum processor,” suggested that the application of quantum computers, combined with recent factoring algorithms, can break RSA-­2048 encryption (the basis of our entire security and financial systems) with non-­error-­correcting quantum computers. This would significantly reduce the number of qubits, or quantum

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power, expected to be required to break RSA encryption. While this paper has not yet been validated, and has been treated with skepticism, it was likely a signal from China, and quantum computing may be nearing a stage where breaking RSA encryption is a real possibility. As key infrastructure projects and military applications take advantage of frontier technology capabilities, they simultaneously become more vulnerable to the same (and other) technologies overriding, controlling and/or bringing them down. This could significantly change the entire geopolitical status quo, where even the mightiest militaries, such as those of the United States, China, Russia, France, India, and the United Kingdom and/or those with the securest borders, are at risk. Nuclear weapons have already proven humans have the capability of destroying the entire planet. During the Cold War, a fragile nuclear standstill was established, one that has on occasion come close to breaking down. Up until now the power has remained primarily concentrated in the hands of a few nations with major military arsenals, although risks have started to grow from a few notable outliers (such as North Korea). Nevertheless, most smaller nations and supranational organizations exert virtually no influence during periods of severe crisis. The key players aren’t going away. In fact, new technologies will further continue to increase the sophistication of weaponry and the ability to cause massive and possibly irreparable damage in many new ways. Equally scary, however, are the many new players, both smaller sovereign powers and “independent” groups/ individuals, who will soon be capable of major impact on global geopolitics. For example, if the entire German or Brazilian power grid were held to ransom by untraceable hackers-­for-­hire, what would be the response from the United States, NATO, or China? The issues are truly intractable. The complexity has grown exponentially, and there are, unfortunately, no simple answers.

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Another growing concern is that weapons systems could become autonomous. AI-­ powered warfare conducted by Terminator-­type machines that look like humans, making intelligent, independent, and unstoppable decisions is unlikely anytime soon. That said, killer robots are already with us. Weaponized, AI-­controlled drones are already deployed on military missions to hunt, kill, and destroy. They are currently largely under the control of human operators, but over time they could be given the power and discretion to take lives without any human involvement. The Secretary General of the United Nations and the Red Cross have declared such weapons should be prohibited under international law. However, such a treaty has not progressed, as three Security Council members, the United States, United Kingdom, and Russia are all opposed to formal negotiations. Alarmingly, unlike nuclear weapons, which are very expensive and difficult to build, and the source materials of which are difficult to obtain and transport, autonomous drones and robots fitted with weaponry are cheap, transportable, and within the capabilities of almost anyone to build and deploy, as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated. A supremacy in frontier technologies will give a considerable asymmetric advantage to those who control them. Historical examples of asymmetric power advantages include: the sophistication and control of the Roman army 2,000 years ago; the invention of the longbow by the English in the Middle Ages; the dominance in global seafaring and mass production of guns by the Belgians, French, and British in the 19th century; the organization and preparedness of the German army in the 1930s; and, most recently, the unleashing of the atomic bombs by the United States on Japan in 1945. Whether we like it or not, the technology race is accelerating, and societies around the world will need to find ways of responding.

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Government Use of Technology “Most of the great problems we face are caused by politicians creating solutions to problems they created in the first place.” —­Walter E. Williams

The views on certain aspects of technology are likely to be quite different in countries with centralized control and the desire to maintain it. Technologies, at least at this stage of their evolution, do not take sides. They represent sets of tools that can be used in different ways by different people. Technology can act to democratize data. It can also be used to centralize and control it. Examples of both are evident throughout the book. Frontier technologies can be used by centralized governments to exert control in the following ways: • Control of data. In democracies, there are limits set on the way data is collected, stored, manipulated, and used—­even if they are regularly “stretched” or simply violated. In a centralized economy, the only limits are those selected by the leadership. The degree to which it is used for social good is completely contingent on the agendas and morals of those in control. • Control of media and communication. While this is also an issue for democracies, frontier technologies can be used on a much greater scale in centralized governments. Propaganda is a key tool in any country. The more a single view is propagated, and other opinions limited, the greater the probability of systematic abuse. • Control of the financial system. Technologies today afford all countries many more tools to run their economies. In a democratic economy there are many private financial institutions and independent oversight bodies that are not directly under the control of the party in power. They might all use similar tools, but their purposes vary and their ability

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to target/penalize specific groups or individuals are much more limited. For instance, China is fast rolling out central bank digital currencies they could use to cement control domestically and possibly use overseas as well. • Operation of the economy. All governments will be able to increase efficiency and control. The more centralized the government, the more functions will be under their control. • Defense and policing. The whole world is trying to deal with normal domestic crimes, external threats, and terrorism. Technology has greatly empowered both those perpetrating and those trying to contain the threats. The types of surveillance and action now used everywhere have immense risk of abuse. • Monitoring and control of the population. Many of the tools used in defense and policing are “extended” into different areas of society. Whether that was contact tracing during COVID-­ 19 or looking to dampen the threat of ethnic Uyghur rebellion in China, the number of applications is vast and concerning. • Control of movement. Sophisticated tracking and facial recognition technologies allow for increased control, more seamlessly, effectively, and surreptitiously implemented than with traditional methodologies. • Control of health access. By using frontier technologies to covertly identify certain people or types of people and through the use of technologies integrated with the human body, access to health and medicine can more easily be limited. • Control of education. Although already a key for most centralized governments (and to some extent democracies as well), new technologies create even more effective ways of standardizing content and monitoring delivery. Also, many of the techniques used in social media can make even the most slanted viewpoints appear well-­grounded and natural.

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Key Takeaways This chapter explored how frontier technologies are already used to manipulate and control us in the short-­term, with the goal of changing our long-­term behavior. This is widespread and likely to become an even more significant issue: • Much of our world has already gone digital, and technology controls the majority of our communications. • Data security has, by necessity, become an important topic and is vital for corporate and national security. There is also a focus, perhaps still insufficient, on privacy, digital fraud, cyberattacks, and ransomware. • Big Tech allocates huge resources to understanding users and controlling their behaviors. In many ways, Big Tech has taken over from traditional media in the amount of influence it exerts. Its methods can often be extremely disturbing and mostly under the radar. • Governments around the world have devoted huge resources to new technologies for monitoring and “administration.” Whether or not the original justifications were valid, “data doesn’t die,” and governments either use it, or have the ability to use it, in any sector they want, whenever they want. • The military, either as a branch of government or as a quasi-­ independent entity, is almost always at the forefront of technology development and use. The current “battle” for the preeminence in the cutting-­edge chip market is not simply metaphoric.

CHAPTER

10 Reinventing the Planet “If anything can go wrong, fix it. To hell with Murphy (Peter’s Law #1).” —­Peter Diamandis

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ur world has undergone many radical changes over its history—­from ball of fire, to wild, hostile, and virtually uncontrolled animal kingdom, to hunter-­gatherer, to agricultural, to industrial—­and now perhaps in an entirely new direction. Changes have historically been evolutionary or largely dependent on major “natural” events and the growth of and changes in mankind. Homo sapiens have, over time, become the dominant force, not because of brawn but because of our ability to think, innovate, and adapt. From harnessing fire, to managing water and the wind, to using steam, we have created technologies that have changed the face of the globe and of the role of human beings. As human lifespans have increased and the risks to life have changed, the population has mushroomed. Some of this is 247

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good; however, the impact of our growing dominance has also had some less salutary effects. Today, with an array of incomparably powerful new technologies, we are at an inflection point that should permit us to solve many of the problems we have created or, if not, further exacerbate them or perhaps even much worse.

Resources The following are areas most likely to disproportionately impact our futures and that of the planet.

People Although far from universal, technology-­driven improvements in productivity, logistics, communications, manufacturing, farming, medicine, etc., have led to an unprecedented leap in overall living standards in terms of health, longevity, caloric intake, and basic personal freedoms. If people live longer and mortality rates among the young decline, in the short term, the population is likely to grow; however, as many traditional human roles fade, or disappear, the number of people “needed” will decline from the peak population. Based on current trends, this peak is predicted by 2050 (or even sooner). With a combination of more efficient, technology-­ driven resource production and declining needs, the footprint of humanity could reach a new and more ecological equilibrium. We are not advocating depopulation but consider it a strong possibility, as a result of the convergence of many frontier technologies.

Food The world’s growing population has required more calories. This has led to vast technology-­ driven efficiency improvements in

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agriculture, animal husbandry, fishing, food preservation, and the supply chain. The negative externalities have also been considerable, some irreversible. There continues to be room to improve production efficiency; more important, however, with the help of advancing biological and data technology, major changes can be made in production, packaging, and distribution to limit ecological damage. The most immediate benefits can be realized in limiting waste, which is estimated at as much as 33 percent (including production, consumption, and disposal). In countries with challenging infrastructures, there is a huge advantage to well-­planned local production, an area that has historically been particularly inefficient. Politics permitting, an investment in frontier technology for local food production can produce disproportionately positive results.

Water Water is the planet’s most vital resource, necessary for the survival of every species. Given its overall importance, it is likely to become one of the primary factors, if not the leading factor, in global geopolitics. Water use is 70 percent agricultural—­40 percent of which is simply wasted through evaporation, archaic irrigation techniques, and bad management. Industry uses another 20 percent, most intensively in the production of power, but also in many aspects of manufacturing. Less than 10 percent of current water use is domestic. With population growth, however, the stress on water resources has intensified dramatically, leading to a growing struggle in many regions for water sufficiency. Increased water usage from agriculture and industry, and the problems it has caused, has historically been driven by new technologies. The good news is advances in all forms of frontier technology are likely to provide a range of meaningful solutions

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to many of the problems we face today. These include sourcing water in a better way, tracking its use, limiting its waste, preventing and remediating pollution, potentially addressing climate issues, and, finally, perhaps the most important of all, creating nondamaging and economic ways of desalination. One way or another, water will play a vital role (positive or negative) in the reinvention of the globe.

Air We all breathe. The quality of the air is important as it directly (and indirectly) affects our health and impacts the future of the environment. Fires, eruptions, and other natural causes have always been responsible for pollutants but, over time, balance has naturally been restored. Currently, with the unprecedented growth in humans’ eco-­footprint and our increased technological sophistication, there is serious concern that damage is occurring that is (or will become) irreversible. New technologies can have a positive impact in decreasing toxicity in virtually all major sources of air pollution listed here: • Burning of fossil fuels. The burning generates sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide among other noxious compounds. • Combustion engines. These are extraordinarily inefficient and generate greenhouse gases at disturbing rates. • Industries of all description. Industries release damaging organic and inorganic compounds. • Agriculture. Agriculture involves often very toxic pesticides, fungicides, and fertilizers. Even the use of improper diet in cattle and other animals bred for food leads to extensive methane emission. • Mining and drilling. These are large sources of dust and chemicals, both in their extraction and processing.

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• Households and business. Every day people use a vast array of equipment products that release toxic chemicals—­ paints, solvents, cleaners, air conditioners, etc. Technology alone, however, cannot succeed. Much will depend on how governments around the world choose to address the issue. Carrots and sticks will both be required.

Energy Some innovative technologies are simultaneously a cause of significant problems and the catalyst to many solutions. The four key stages are production/harnessing, storage, distribution, and use. All are currently extremely wasteful; however, they will be (and already are) the beneficiaries of frontier technology–driven improvements. In the short term, frontier (and more basic) technologies can detect user waste in the home, workplace, and industry, and cost-­ effectively improve energy efficiency and use. In the medium term, there are innumerable opportunities to improve efficiency. The major constraints are likely to be budgetary, not in my backyard (NIMBY), and geopolitical, but many small-­and medium-­sized projects are likely to move forward because they are financially attractive and/or receive public sector support: • In current carbon-­based production, there are continual improvements in the ability to locate accessible sources and evaluate their viability. Mining/drilling techniques are constantly evolving to be less dangerous, more focused/less wasteful, more emissions-­conscious, and perhaps more cost-­effective. • In solar, there is significant focus on the efficiency of collection, the material composition of panels, and ways to better

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“store” excess energy to allow for more stable delivery. Continued progress, as well as intense research into longer-­term solutions that might completely change the game, is likely within the next few years. • In wind, there are already a combination of medium-­and long-­ term efforts underway. These include material efficiency, localized 3D and 4D equipment manufacturing, and smaller-­scale installations. • In nuclear, AI, quantum computing, and cutting-­ edge communications technology will be able to improve production design and safety as well as considerably improve human process controls, monitoring, and disaster intervention. • In geothermal, the traditional natural gas extraction methods with new materials and processes expand the ability to access and harvest different sources of energy and different depths beneath the earth’s surface. In the longer term (10 to 25 years), many larger-­scale projects will make it through the planning, political, and execution phases. These will comprise many/all the areas outlined previously and most likely some newer technologies such as mass hydrogen power, advanced geothermal, and nuclear fission. And, of course, we cannot rule out areas of future innovation not yet on the radar screen. The overarching target will be to shift primary energy use from carbon-­based to other existing and/or evolving sources that are renewable, less toxic, and less intrusive overall on the environment. No matter how compelling the general framework and individual projects may be, it is impossible to determine the time frame to reach meaningful uptake, as the barriers are real and significant. These include:

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• An incomprehensible amount of capital and human infrastructure in place and use that produce, distribute, and use carbon-­based fuels. • An equally incomprehensible amount of capital will be required to convert to new energy sources or to create them from scratch. • Incumbents who benefit strongly from the status quo will undoubtedly continue to marshal significant resources to fight change for as long as they are able to do so. • Elected political officials have terms in office that are much shorter than the time required to complete projects. This often makes it unattractive for them to be vocal and active. • Mass bureaucracies ensure that no project moves forward rashly (or even sensibly). One almost universal commonality among countries around the world is the extraordinary prowess of bureaucrats to slow things down. • There are always geopolitical collapses (aka wars) that destroy or delay infrastructure projects. Depending on the scale, their impact will vary significantly.

Products and Processes Humans have continuously needed to create more and more systems to accommodate and control the growing population. Although largely done with “progress” in mind, many of these systems appear to have caused damage to our world and to human health and well-­ being—­ often disproportionate harm to their practical value: • Mining, drilling, felling, and insensitive agriculture not only depletes resources and generates pollution but can also

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permanently scar the landscape and affect both the flora and fauna ecosystems. • Producing many goods requires materials (chemicals, solvents, glues, paint, etc.) that can be dangerous to the environment, as well as those working with them or living/working in places where they spread by water, air, or through the ground. • Luxury items requiring resources that are either highly toxic and/or energy intensive to produce (e.g., gold), irreplaceable (e.g., rhinoceros horn), and environmentally challenging to operate (e.g., airplanes, yachts, automobiles), among many other categories. • Single or limited-­use products. • Limited or nonrecyclable goods. • Duplicative items. What is the effective incremental value to a person of each additional car, computer, television, espresso machine, or item of clothing? Because the production of these goods represents a significant number of jobs in countries around the world, whether or not the products are essential, in practical terms they cannot be eliminated in the short term. In many regions they are pivotal to the entire economy and help to stem poverty. Furthermore, the GDP they create is only the beginning; there is a multiplier effect (that varies from industry to industry and country to country—­ in the United States the manufacturing multiplier was approximately 2.7x in 2021) that compounds the importance of these jobs. There are, however, many ways to gradually change both what we consume and how we consume. Change requires an impetus (Newton’s second law)—­in this case many different smaller ones. The following are examples, using technology, common sense, and the harnessing of willpower that can begin to replace some of the more “unfriendly” items we use:

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• Less toxic materials. Even with essential items such as clothing, there is a considerable amount that can be done to improve the environment. Currently, more than 60 percent of all fibers used in clothing are derived from petrochemicals (polyester, nylon, rayon, acetate, acrylic, and spandex). Substituting natural fibers, particularly those produced in the most sustainable manner, can have an immense impact. • Better design to limit waste. There are many reasons for the evolution of processes—­some considered, some happenstance, and others through constraints (financial, technological, etc.). Regardless of the reason, the amount of simple waste is extremely high and varies from industry to industry. In clothing, it is estimated almost half of input materials go to waste. Rethinking processes, using today’s technology, can have an immense impact, not just ecologically but economically as well. When the incentives are financial—­in almost all domains—­there is a much higher probability of implementation. • Recycling. Up to 75 percent of all waste is not recycled, including food. Although the efforts over the past few decades have been considerable, the rate of recycling in certain countries (including the United States) has in fact declined in recent years. The topic is vast and complicated, and there are many approaches to increasing recycling throughout the entire production and use chain. A key one is to use technologies to continue to design products that can easily be recycled. Paper, aluminum, and glass are relatively easy to recycle. Unfortunately, for many reasons, plastics are much more complicated. That said, there are new technologies on both the industrial and biological sides that are likely to have an impact. Consumer products are particularly difficult, as they often include many components that are difficult to separate.

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For example, Nike is proud to discuss the 23 elements that go into its standard running shoe. Unfortunately, that makes recycling the shoes virtually impossible. Much of the clothing industry is similar. Most products are not designed with recycling in mind. The obvious question is, why not? With vastly improved design tools and an ability to re-­engineer production with much more flexibility and at a much lower cost than at any time in history, this is a good time to shift the narrative from expediency (aka waste) to efficiency. • Upcycling. One step beyond recycling is the actual use of materials from a primary function in a secondary one that might be of equal or greater utility. This is not just a hand-­ me-­down, as in the case of clothing, but a reinvention. A simple illustration would be the use of materials from storm damage (e.g., Hurricane Katrina) for art pieces and installations, as was conducted by a group of artists in New Orleans in 2005. A less serendipitous example would be Adidas’ UltraBoost DNA Loop running shoes, not only made entirely of recycled plastic but constructed of a single material (using no glue but bonding at high heat) so after use they can be returned, shredded, and remanufactured into a further iteration. Some 3D printers can already use certain waste materials. There is a wealth of potential applications.

Real Estate Where we live and work has both continued to expand and increase in density. This has necessitated considerable construction and the infrastructure necessary to support it. This impacts the environment in many ways: • Elimination, in many cases, of important sources of clean air and water and the weakening or destruction of ecosystems.

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• Building in sensitive locations that increase the probabilities of flooding, erosion, and other damaging natural events. • Use of construction materials that either are directly harmful to the environment or are scarce/irreplaceable. • Transportation required to bring in all materials needed for construction. • Pollution (air, water, ground) generated during the construction process. • Use of energy (often very inefficient) in operating of the buildings—­heating, cooling, and general maintenance. • Use of toxic materials to maintain facilities. • Ongoing waste disposal (water, solid, and air). There is growing sensitivity to many of the real estate related issues outlined, and there are many potential solutions. However, there are huge geographic disparities in attitude and implementation. These relate not only to differences in wealth/resources between developed and developing nations but also to social and political divides within countries most able to afford more eco-­ sensitive approaches. As technology both lowers the cost and increases efficiency, there is considerable potential for meaningful improvements in many areas: location and design, materials, transportation, and construction and operations. One of the biggest questions is whether there will be a continued trend toward urbanization or whether technology will encourage more overall dispersal of the population. The death of the city has been predicted many times. Arthur C. Clarke in 1964 predicted that by 2020 the city would be no more, as communications would make it irrelevant. Amazingly, in some ways he was right, but only during the pandemic and for completely different reasons. Cities thrive for very different reasons in developing and developed nations. In developing countries with limited rural

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infrastructure and limited government support, subsistence living makes cities more attractive than the alternatives. Mass migration to key urban hubs (throughout the world) reflects the inherent economic dynamism that cities represent—­the opportunity to find some form of work that at least provides for subsistence living and also better access to health services. Although technology can increase the opportunities for those living remotely, this requires communications infrastructure and appropriate training and education to succeed. Furthermore, distribution of resources in most developing nations favors urban environments for both economic and political reasons. Though the most recent developments in technology like ChatGPT do have some penetration in rural evolving economies, having major impact will take significant time. Even if technology progresses exponentially, in less developed environments adoption is linear at best. In developed countries, the largest new entrant group to cities is the young college graduate, often working for tech firms. Post-­ COVID-­19 one can clearly witness a rejuvenation of many major cities around the globe. One might have expected WFH and particularly WFA to cause a major exodus from cities, but with COVID-­19  no longer front and center, the exact opposite has occurred. WFH has expanded in cities where young people can live—­as they are no longer tied to commuting to an office. Cities have also thrived because people have an innate human desire to socialize. Perhaps the expansion of the metaverse, dating technologies, or holography will at some point cause a tectonic shift, but not soon. Cities remain invaluable hubs of innovation and creativity and offer easy access to a broad range of people and relationships. If properly managed, the innovation output of a city can grow almost exponentially with population size, while the cost of its infrastructure grows only linearly (or less). This is related to Metcalfe’s Law for telecommunications networks, where its effect is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system.

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The introduction of a network of flexible offices can lead to fast-­ paced, dynamic ecosystems and “specialty” clusters that encourage innovation. In the longer run, as frontier technologies radically change our entire economic and social constructs, we may see virtually extending offices through AR/VR hybrid work environments, making real estate use more efficient per square foot, and also reducing travel. The repurposing of major roads could make many areas much more livable and sought after, thereby revitalizing entire cities.

War Over the course of time, wars have created destruction and devastation. Until the 20th century, however, given a smaller population and relatively primitive technology, the amount of damage to the planet was limited and recovery times often rapid. With the acceleration in technological development, the sophistication and danger of weaponry has shifted the balance. Digital weaponry will become part of the military arsenal alongside nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons as a means of inflicting mass destruction. Because digital weaponry is both easy to execute and less likely to create physical damage, there is a high probability it will be used. Although most efforts are still geared towards traditional military activity, the evolution, of digital technology to hack into energy grids, water systems, electoral systems, etc., represents an entirely new field of battle. Not only is moving from kinetic to digital warfare among the greatest threats we face to global stability, but the decreased need for equipment and personnel could lead to major changes in the entire global balance of power, not to mention enormous losses in jobs, given the size of the military around the world! Historically, there has been little widespread awareness of the potentially long-­term dangers new human capabilities could

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wreak on the planet. Even today, there remains considerable skepticism on the subject. Conversely, however, there are many now fully aware and engaged in trying to reverse the problems and develop long-­term solutions. The increasing power of many new technologies is creating opportunities that have never existed before. Some are readily available to implement today. Others will either take more time or require significant investment before they are viable. Almost all will require behavioral changes. Any step forward is positive, but meaningful adoption needs both continued growth in engagement by individuals and significant governmental support and direction.

Key Takeaways This chapter gave an overview of how frontier technologies will both impact our planet—­people, food, water, air, and energy—­ and impact the many products, processes, real estate, and the nature of war: • Although frontier technologies have the promise to solve many of our most intractable global problems, such as climate change and hunger, there is the danger they can also make things far worse. • Technology will play important roles in the following: ◦◦ Demographics. The impacts of increasing longevity, lower birth rates, and geographic dislocation. ◦◦ Food. The ability to more efficiently (and healthily) produce, package, store, deliver, prepare, and consume. ◦◦ Water. Better management of “production,” treatment, use, storage, and distribution.

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◦◦ Air. Improvement of air quality through better pollution management. ◦◦ Energy. Improving efficiencies in the production/generation, storage, distribution, and use of existing technologies and accelerating the development of renewable sources. • Whether consumption dictates production, or vice versa, there are many goods and services that generate significant negative externalities through their production, distribution, inefficient use, or pollution-­generating disposal. Frontier technologies can offer cost-­effective solutions in many of these areas. • Real estate impacts everyone, and everything impacts real estate. From demographics to transportation, development, financing, management, and pollution, frontier technologies will have an integral and major role to play. • The military is front and center in both the development and the use of frontier technologies, both for offensive and defensive purposes.

CHAPTER

11 Reinventing Humans and Humanity “There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.” —­Oscar Wilde

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he extraordinary advances in technology surrounding health and the human body are not ends in and of themselves, merely a beginning, and are extraordinarily difficult to forecast. There are so many factors to consider; however, as we become more and more accustomed to improved ways of dealing with health issues, both physical and mental, we are starting down a path that could well redefine what it means to be a human being. We can already diagnose and fix problems it would have been inconceivable to address even a decade ago. Building from our growing base of knowledge, however, the future questions will 263

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focus more and more on body and mind enhancement, not just repair. As the power of computers merges within our bodies and as the palette of genetic alterations grows, human beings will simply not be the same. Many top minds in different fields are actively discussing the ramifications; the question is how much is being accomplished and by whom? There must be a concern as to who holds the cards. Limited awareness by the public is a major factor in the lack of clear and concerted efforts to address issues before they arise, rather than cleaning up afterward. We are facing a particularly dangerous situation that needs to be front and center in public debate before it is too late. Different rates of change in technology around the world, combined with very differentiated access, could lead to a two-­tier world of haves and have-­nots, which could be very hard to bridge or reverse. Reaching an optimal outcome in a problem with virtually an infinite number of inputs is clearly impossible. Perfection cannot be the goal, nor even a good compromise. As with treaties on limiting nuclear proliferation, in the end, it is more realistic just to increase public awareness and try to limit disastrous outcomes. The human body and mind will change, as will the context of all we do. Different cultures will react in different ways, and the changes will not be instantaneous but cumulative. Finding ways of integrating different viewpoints and limiting extreme examples of self-­interest is the compromise we hope for. There are four fundamental human characteristics that may be underappreciated but have been instrumental in our becoming the dominant species: diversity, adaptability, creativity, and altruism: • Diversity. Humans have evolved differently in many parts of the globe. As technology has permitted travel and interchange to become more common, there has been considerable co-­ mingling. This has not only strengthened the gene pool

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but also immeasurably increased diversity. Today, frontier technologies are poised to reverse this flow in two major ways: ◦◦ Cultural homogenization. Communications and information technology are creating greater commonality around the globe. The unique differences that characterized regions and cultures are gradually being whittled away. Access to everything from everywhere, although empowering in many ways, risks being quite limiting over the longer term. ◦◦ Medical transformation. Technology that allows individuals to select specific characteristics for themselves and their offspring has the scary prospect of immensely shrinking differences. As certain traits are deemed more desirable, there will be a propensity to seek those over other objectively equally important ones. As an unfortunate current example, how many Americans dye their hair a different color? How many Asians seek to lighten their skin? Neither has an intrinsic benefit, yet culturally it is currently viewed as desirable by some. Unlike these examples, altering genes will have much greater, longer-­lasting, and unpredictable effects. • Adaptability. Humans have moved from the fields to caves to the cities we have built, and we have molded the world around us. We have adapted as threats have come and gone. And, as frontier technologies evolve and we train them to take on more of our historic roles, we will need to rely on this adaptability to ensure our future. • Creativity. The ability to innovate and build off prior experience has been instrumental throughout history. The more tools at our disposal, the more our creativity has blossomed. Some of the greatest achievements have been individualistic; others have resulted from collaboration. As the

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more mundane tasks in life are diminished through technology, our future depends on our ability to reinvent ourselves in creative ways never previously imagined. With more time on our hands, we can explore more and make the effort to nurture creativity in others. • Altruism. Darwin was stumped by the idea of altruism, as he could not understand why such a gene would continue to exist, let alone thrive, because the altruistic would sacrifice themselves for, or be sacrificed by, the competitive. However, research has shown that communities perform best with a mixture of the competitive and altruistic. This perhaps will be among the most difficult human characteristic for technology to replicate.

Health and Digitization of Healthcare Healthcare should be one of the greatest beneficiaries of technological advance, and it is. Ironically, however, the enormous set of processes and protocols in place dealing with the vast array of differing (and often conflicting) interests guarantees the pace of change will be torturous. The virtually incomprehensible costs of global healthcare (2020 spending is estimated to have exceeded $9 trillion) compounds the problem. While frontier technologies will reduce the costs of delivery through improved efficiency, they will also increase the costs as the range and scope of medical treatment options increases. A longer life span and the ability to treat an increasing number of conditions is not random. It requires research, development, equipment, and skilled practitioners. None of that is cheap. Over time, technology may address many of these components, but not in the foreseeable future. Today, however, the overall cost of healthcare will almost certainly continue to increase.

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That said, there is little doubt frontier technologies were key in combatting the COVID-­ 19 pandemic. The willingness to consider new approaches, accelerate review processes, and overcome bureaucratic hurdles demonstrates just how much can be accomplished when there is a common crisis to tackle. A return to less exceptional times will most likely dampen the rate of progress, yet turning back the clock completely is most unlikely. We will see accelerated improvements in the digitization of healthcare, telemedicine, and an increased compression of medical research times. During the pandemic, dozens of medicines were developed and adopted, all around the world, in a matter of months rather than years. One of the most telling insights gained from the pandemic was the world’s dependence on healthcare professionals at all levels and the lack of effective interconnection underpinning the services. Vast numbers of lives were lost because of an insufficiency of doctors, nurses, and related professionals and support staff; even more will be lost because of insufficient resources to handle the “normal” illnesses that cause or accelerate fatalities (heart, cancer, diabetes, etc.). Balancing healthcare needs in periods of stability versus crisis will be actively debated in virtually all economies around the world. What is abundantly clear, however, is doctors, nurses, aides, administrators, etc., cannot be “minted” overnight. Furthermore, the financial costs to increase staffing is not feasible or realistic in many countries. The only solution—­ outside of accepting declining healthcare systems—­is to focus on increasing efficiency. The bad news is that inefficiency is extraordinary everywhere; the good news is, spurred on through technology, there are many short term, cost-effective things that can be accomplished: • Data power to enhance research and development. To many, research conjures an image of brilliant scientists and

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engineers blithely hopping from one epiphany to another. The contrasting reality is most of it is simply plowing through innumerable scenarios to test whether something works. The more variables involved, the more blocking and tackling required, and the more dead ends encountered. The use of increasingly powerful computers, and now AI, empowers researchers to virtually screen and simulate a vast number of alternatives, while controlling for an ever-­increasing number of variables. This can dramatically cut the time and cost involved, as well as improve the accuracy of the findings. • Global research coordination. Although some research remains proprietary, there has been a long-­standing tradition of collaboration. Up until recently, the greatest hurdle has been physical distance—­even if that distance was only a few miles. The immense improvements in communications technology, computer sharing, and security has enabled real multilocational projects with truly simultaneous access. Blockchain and tokenization, with quantum computing security, could help anonymize, protect, and track data facilitating multilocation projects. • Drug discovery. Quantum computing is predicted to be incredibly effective at matching large data sets and, ­therefore, at research into new drugs. Because of its nonlinear approach and ability to simultaneously explore a vast number of options, it can discover solutions humans are not able to consider. The opportunities for both overall healthcare and individually targeted diagnostics and treatment will reach a whole new level. • Robotic procedures. On the medical side, the use of robotics, particularly in surgery, has increased the accuracy, effectiveness, and timeliness of many procedures. There will be a vast increase in both robot-­and computer-­assisted (AR)

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procedures. This could involve not just the primary surgeon but also other aspects of the operating room. Soon, entire procedures will be able to be conducted without human intervention. • Improved quality of medical professionals. The ability to use VR to train doctors, nurses, and technicians and to use AR during medical procedures will improve skills and should dramatically decrease the rate of errors. This is a great outcome for patients and will also significantly lower costs to medical practices. • Remote teams. Improved digital communication enables medical teams to be assembled from different locations, rather than being in a single space. This can range from having a surgeon located in one hospital conducting robotic surgery in another, to having multiple medical team members in different places participating in the same procedure. Although this can be extraordinarily helpful in many complex operations in cutting-­edge facilities, it is potentially even more important in remote locations and particularly in poorer, developing nations. In countries without a developed infrastructure (physical and human), new technologies (such as mobile phones) can gain a foothold more rapidly and expand exponentially. Significant mechanization of healthcare technology is likely to be implemented in the developing world, both out of need and out of practicality. Without the capital to build a fully integrated infrastructure, innovative, lower-­footprint technologies are needed. • Remote triage. Initial (and some follow-­up) appointments that are procedural or involve basic diagnostic protocols can be systematized, conducted remotely, and largely accomplished without human intervention. Over time, not only will adoption increase, but so will the ability of AI-­based

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systems to accurately diagnose more complex conditions with a personally tailored approach. Systems with up-­to-­ date knowledge, all the data in the world, and considerably lower costs, will be unstoppable. • Remote monitoring of conditions. The rapid increase in sophistication of wearable devices, such as the Apple Watch and Oura ring, means doctors, nurses, and technicians are already able to have access to their patients’ data without needing to schedule appointments. With medical professionals setting key parameters, semi-­automated tracking and diagnosis on many conditions is not far away. COVID-­19, out of necessity, forced many medical appointments to be conducted remotely. Both doctors and patients alike have become much more comfortable with the concept, and with technological advances, the breadth and depth of what can be covered continue to grow. Clearly, this promotes considerable efficiency and reduces staffing needs in doctors’ offices, clinics, and hospitals. • Decreasing bureaucracy. Health systems around the world struggle with the enormous amount of paperwork—­both directly medically related and general procedural. Virtually all is handled by support staff. This is costly and very time-­ consuming, although some limited improvements are on the horizon. For example, the United Kingdom’s National Health Service’s digital arm—­NHSX—­hopes to use bots to save staff more than 100  million hours of paperwork each year. One example would be to make updated patient data automatically available within 15 minutes of being seen in the emergency room, versus the month it can currently take to deliver physical records. NHSX estimates digitization could save nurses 40 hours a month, time that can be redirected to patient care. The amount of time and effort spent

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overall on nonmedical, procedural items is breathtaking, no matter where you are around the world. The complexity can be enormous and very confusing to all. Most involve sets of rules and procedures that could be identified and programed into a smart contract and then secured on a blockchain. Adoption is inevitable in the long-­term, but assume a protracted timeline, given the current level of entrenchment. • Maximizing procedural efficiency. There are many potential efficiency and effectiveness gains for computer programs to monitor work process and flow and provide implementation alternatives. Some readers will have experienced undue frustrations waiting well past sunset for the morning rounds in the hospital to arrive. In the United Kingdom, which suffers from bed blocking—­when patients occupy hospital beds longer than is necessary due to inefficiency, staffing shortages, over conservatism, or other factors—­AI is being used to reduce the 13,000  in bed backlog by predicting patient release times. • Robotic services in medical facilities. Nonmedical personnel make up a large percentage of the payroll. Beyond the bureaucratic/administrative aspects, food preparation/ delivery, delivery of medication, cleaning, etc., represent a significant cost. AI can either assist or fully replace current personnel in many of these functions. • Driverless medical transports. Getting patients, equipment, and organs to, from, and between medical facilities is nontrivial. Although the need for medical personnel in ambulances is unlikely to abate soon, driverless transports are clearly on the horizon. This will result in massive cost savings, as routing can be remotely optimized, as well as increase the timeliness and efficiency of pick-­ups and deliveries.

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Transhumanism: Blending Frontier Technologies with Humanity “The world was not made for any one species.” —­Daniel Quinn

The symbiosis of people with technology is accelerating. Transhumanism involves medical, social, and philosophical research and development into human-­enhancement technologies. The goal is to augment and improve human sensory reception, emotive ability, and cognitive capacity to radically improve human capabilities, improve health, and extend human life spans. Over the past couple of decades there has been an accelerating acceptance of, and dependence on, technology. COVID­19 has given this a turbo boost. Whereas a large percentage of the population used their devices beforehand, they are now dependent on them in all aspects of their lives. Many now get most or all their information through screens. This allows frontier technologies such as AI to decide what we see and what we cannot. And this is just the start. In Japan, holographic frontier technology computers have made many more inroads. In one case, in November 2018, Akihiko Kondo spent two million yen ($20,000) on a wedding to marry Hatsune Miku, a synthesized holographic character who could detect and respond to all his movements and speech and was able to communicate with him accordingly. Another example is Moxie, a small robot with a dynamic virtual face, designed for 5-­to 10-­year-­olds. Moxie can chat comfortably with them and has human traits such as making mistakes and learning from them. Imagine the benefits of such robots for permanently or temporarily housebound children or those with executive function issues, such as ADHD, or for use in more formal remote education. As the power of frontier technologies

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can be delivered in increasingly human form, relate in more human terms, and even learn to evolve, it will be easy for people to become attached to or even dependent on them. On the other hand, decreasing human interaction and increased isolation is a growing concern, and so are the risks of programmer-­ designed coercion and eventually fully autonomous frontier technologies training the next generations of humans as they see fit. The future of humanoid frontier technologies is soon likely to blur the landscape, and their design and ability to provide perfect companionship may see them, within a generation, integrating seamlessly into our society. With investments into robotics ventures jumping 500 percent in just 5 years, from $1 billion in 2015 to $5 billion in 2020, this future is becoming more likely. The Littler Workplace Policy Institute reports that robotics is the fastest growing industry in the world, poised to become the largest overall within the next decade.

Bio-­Machines and Nanotech More reliance on technology has advantages for health in the short term, with better, faster medicine, more telemedicine, and less contact with others. However, it may well also lead to longer-­ term problems by limiting people’s exposure to infections, thereby reducing immunity and—­counterintuitively—­leading to more disease. This was the downfall of the highly advanced Martians from HG Wells’ War of the Worlds, who were able to slice through human’s sophisticated armaments but were wiped out by the common cold to which they had no resistance. Perhaps the advances in health tech and a post-­COVID-­19 focus on health will hasten the arrival of the bio-­machine. This could start with human/machine upgrades including AI, nanotech, and fabricated organic devices. Medicine has already

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mastered the transplant and insertion of simple robotics such as the pacemaker. It is easy to assume that a human upgrade will be something similar to the Bionic Man, Wolverine, or the Terminator—­a visible physical mix of organic and metallic nonorganic. But this is unlikely to be the case. Much more probable is an invisible organic or nanotechnology insert or integration more like some Marvel superheroes such as Spiderman, Captain America, or Scarlet Witch. Some researchers are predicting that by 2030  nanobots could revolutionize healthcare, traveling through our blood to diagnose issues and even prevent and cure illness by delivering medication to targeted tissue sites. Human upgrades are likely to happen; many people are already working on them, including Elon Musk with Neuralink. This could change millions of years of evolution and create a sudden super-­species and possibly an entirely new genetic code. People will have little choice but to integrate them into their bodies or be at a permanent competitive disadvantage.

Integrating Technology with the Body It is unlikely such upgrades will be binary, that one day, out of the blue, we will be asked, “Do you want to surgically implant this chip into your brain?” Human/technology integrations will start with small transitions. This could be through computerization or genome editing; in fact, in 2019 sickle cell disease was successfully treated this way. We are already all addicted to our smartphones. It would not be a huge step to become dependent on a product like Google Glass and then to progress to transient and easy-­ to-­insert AI controlled AR contact lenses that make us totally reliant on the additional cognitive capabilities they will allow us to access. At that point, the decision to have a chip surgically

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implanted or an “intelligent” cell introduced would almost appear a minor upgrade and be almost seamless. Interestingly, the rise in frontier technology–enabled transportation has made cars much safer. This has led to a decrease in the number of organs available for transport. In the United States alone, 100,000 people await replacement organs. This is leading to an alternative upgrade route. Partially robotic hearts already exist and have, in a limited number of cases been implanted in humans. A great advantage is a robotic heart can stay in remote contact with hospitals, so medical professionals can monitor it and ensure it functions properly. As organ replacements like this and Cloud connectivity become more widespread, our bodies will, by default, become connected devices. And yet, this runs the same risks as any other connected device. Governments and—­ perhaps even more worrisome—­ businesses in the private sector will be equally able to do this, without any pretense of it being for the “general good.”

Integrating Technology with the Mind Integrating technologies with, or into, the brain will be an even more seismic shift for humanity. Externally worn devices already exist that can read our thoughts, help with psychological issues, and monitor and improve our sleep (e.g., the NeoRhythm by OmniPEMF, a neurostimulation sleep headset). According to a speech at the World Economic Forum in 2023 by Nita Farahany, the founding director of the Duke Initiative for Science and Society, the technology to decode brain waves is already here and being deployed, albeit in nascent form. This has been enabled by AI analyzing the huge data patterns our brains produce. The nonintrusive, wearable devices can pick up emotional states such as happiness, sadness, and anger. They can decode what your mind is seeing, such as shapes and

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numbers—­even your bank account’s PIN. As Farahany explains, “Surveillance of the human brain can. . .make our lives better. . . [but]  it threatens fundamentally what our own self-­ identity 1 is. . .and threatens to become a tool of oppression.” Will we see people starting to hack brains directly, cutting out the intermediary of the device? And how will cybersecurity now need to evolve? Taking a further leap, Neuralink and others are experimenting on inserting chips (actual computers) into the brain. The next step could be a computer based solely on biological material or DNA, and eventually one that could be integrated without surgery (such as with CRISPR). Initially, this could monitor our health and extend our cognitive ability. The next iteration could enhance our mental ability and enhance our thought processes. In the long run, why not connect people directly to one another, allowing them to simultaneously share and explore ideas? Perhaps it might be possible to bring groups together to make a human Cloud, connected to silicon-­based (probably quantum) computer systems—­essentially a quantum brain (QBrain). The potential horizons are both breathtakingly exciting and petrifying at the same time.

Key Takeaways This chapter covered the near-­term impacts of frontier technology on our health and health delivery. It also explored the medium-­and longer-­term opportunities and enormous risks of

Tim Hinchliffe, “Hackable Humans at WEF: ‘We Can Decode Faces in Your Mind, Your Pin’,” The Sociable, January 19, 2023, https://sociable.co/government-­and-­policy/hackable-­humans-­wef-­decode-­mind-­pin-­ number-­bank-­account.

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integrating and merging these technologies into our bodies and minds: • The extraordinary advances in the research into our bodies raises a broad range of both practical and ethical issues. • There is possibly no area that has more uses for the frontier technologies described in this book. • Technology can have a direct positive impact on every aspect of health, including research, product development, treatment, care facilities, and administration. Implementation can be tricky, however, as change can also cause significant dislocation. • More and more procedures integrating devices into our bodies use biomedical solutions or involve gene modification. The practical and ethical dilemmas raised by these types of activity are extremely complex. What is human? Who should be the arbiter as to what is allowed and what is not? • Will our minds and brains be next? There are already wearable devices that can read emotions such as happiness, sadness, and anger, decode what your mind is seeing, such as shapes and numbers and even your bank account’s PIN. With the rapid evolution of neuroscience, the range of applications is likely to grow exponentially.

CHAPTER

12 Technology Reinventing Itself “AI will be able to do everything better than humans over time . . . everything.” – Elon Musk, December 9, 2020

W

e often believe things won’t change and the worst won’t ever happen. In technology, this can be characterized as the “reverse luddite fallacy”—­that people believe as technology was not responsible for net job losses in the past, it will not be in the future. At the same time, many believe technologies will instantly improve our lives and are extremely disappointed if they don’t—often failing to recognize the extent of their

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potential longer-term impact (Amara’s Law).1 It reflects our inability to grasp the concept of exponential growth. And when changes do take place, the pace seems so gradual we don’t even notice. There is an old metaphor about boiling a frog: if you place a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will jump out, but if you put the frog into cold water and slowly bring it to a boil, it will unwittingly remain until it boils to death. Our adaptation to technology is not dissimilar—­we continually train computers to do more tasks and take on more responsibilities. In doing so, we are gradually becoming more reliant on them. Although we might take this evolution for granted and assume it is random, most frequently it has been carefully planned and implemented. Unfortunately, those responsible are frequently not motivated by improving the world—­merely their own interests. Germany in the 1930s is perhaps the most extreme example of boiling the frog. Germans did not suddenly wake one day and decide it was time to eliminate entire sectors of their population—­ Jews, gypsies, the disabled, and political prisoners. The preceding multiyear process of gradual dehumanization (through the media and gradually escalating social and job restrictions) desensitized people, so much that they were willing to accept the draconian measures that eventually led to the Nazi’s carefully and patiently developed plan—­the Final Solution. It really is time for us to start asking questions about what current technologies are doing, how they are implemented, and what the future will be. So while frontier technologies are not yet capable of replacing most human functions, with continued exponential growth, their actual capabilities could increase a million-­fold within the next two decades. What will that mean? Computers already perform tasks that humans cannot, but they 1 “Definition of Amara’s Law,” PCMAG, accessed April 5, 2023, www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/amaras­law.

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remain largely under our control. Is it true that computers will likely never be able to compete with us because they cannot become conscious or be programmed for empathy? Many brilliant people around the world are focused on achieving just that. Humanity has been unequaled in our ability to adapt. To keep that run going, we need to actively maintain a balance with technology. We cannot simply wait for the future to come to us. We might not like what we get. One of the major reasons changes are now so imperceptible, even to avid technology adopters, is the way in which products are being released and updated. In the early days, consumer software products were created, tested, and distributed by physical cartridge or disk, often through a physical retail channel and thus obvious to the user. As the process was expensive and time-­ consuming and as fixes were difficult to deploy, the development and testing processes needed to be rigorous. However, as the Internet became ubiquitous and fixes much quicker, easier, and more cost-­ effective to deploy, development cycles became shorter, and testing less rigorous. The new mantra became build, break, fix fast. This led to a cycle of rapid-­fire patches and frequent new versions. Initially, these were made available online, without direct notification to users; consumers were responsible for remaining up-­to-­date, finding new versions, and installing them. With the passage of time, this process became more user-­ friendly and seamless, with patches automatically deployed. Now, apps are digitally delivered and constantly updated, sometimes on our devices, but more often on the Cloud without users even being aware and frequently without their consent or regulation. The movement to the Cloud opens bigger issues. For instance, while quantum computers will cost a considerable amount to build, access to them through the Cloud will make their power available to anyone.

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Adoption of new models and technologies is slowest in areas with longer refresh cycles and higher levels of regulation, such as healthcare and finance. At the forefront are highly innovative and first-­mover industries such as computer gaming; others rapidly adopting are fashion, marketing, retail, and security; and even education and real estate are slowly starting to pay attention. Two more controversial industries, gambling and pornography are almost always the early adopters of technologies that rapidly become mass market (although the risks of fraud, deep fakes, and many other improper uses are high and scary). Finally, there is online dating; its rapid adoption reflects how effective recent frontier technology advances have been. As almost everyone wants a soulmate, who can resist a service able to (almost) read your mind and, without the risks of trial and error, connect you with a perfect partner, or in the future create a partner avatar? This example is an almost perfect metaphor for technology appearing to be the perfect solution but, in reality, shrinking the human experience. Much of life is about randomness, taking risks, feeling anticipation, and then reveling in the thrills of success or learning to survive the disappointments of failure. Always experiencing something based on what you previously enjoyed limits discovering new passions and expanding horizons. For now, most frontier technology development and deployment remain controlled by humans. However, a future approaches when frontier technologies create and implement their own fixes, seamlessly and without the knowledge of users or even their developers. We could find ourselves in a world where frontier technologies build and then control themselves. Right now, we should all be concerned about having a concentrated group of executives responsible for creating and effectively controlling the future of these technologies and many aspects of the world.

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Are any of us ready for the technologies themselves, without oversight or intervention, creating and implementing their own visions? The pace of technological dematerialization is undoubtedly increasing and is among the most important transformative drivers in the modern world. Current technologies are accelerating the evolution of two forms of dematerialization: physical and cognitive.

Physical Dematerialization Physical dematerialization involves elements replaced one by one with bits and bytes entered into computers and distributed digitally, on demand, and consumed in a purely digital format. We are seeing accelerating miniaturization, innovation, and consolidation in hardware. For example, a mobile phone now includes a camera, a personal voice recorder, a television, a radio, a flashlight, a scanner, a photocopier, and even a personal computer, all in a single hand-­sized device. A clear example is print newspapers and books. Digital versions are replacing printing presses, paper factories, physical distribution with logistics and warehousing, newsagents and newspaper stands, and downstream industries such as waste collection, disposal, and recycling. From a user’s perspective, they can be read synchronously across multiple devices, searched, combined, compared, edited, and forwarded to others; furthermore, they don’t need to be packed and are less likely to be lost or damaged. The same can be said for almost any form of information, including movies, music, computer games, digital art, and communications—­where there were once postcards, letters, faxes, and telexes, now emails and instant messaging reign.

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With the blockchain, all this information can be created and distributed as fully open or limited to just one original and all this can be controlled. Additionally, it can also be sold and traded with almost no frictional costs, making scalability virtually limitless. The only significant cost remaining will be the “creation” of the content—­and who knows the impact the likes of ChatGPT will have on that. The recipient devices are still physical, such as the smartphone, computer, or television; however, they can receive an almost infinite number of dematerialized products at no incremental cost. Once frontier technologies like 5G and CloudBased computing are fully adopted, these devices will become nodes, with their power housed in the Cloud. They will continue to shrink and, as they are then merely shells, will no longer be functionally obsolete after a mere year or two. Other delivery mechanisms, such as glasses or contact lenses, or holograms, can, for better or worse, allow us to be permanently connected. Technology has enabled replacement products that are cheaper, more tradable, more robust, more convenient, and more useful. And as these products have been gradually dematerialized, their productivity has improved. Virtually no companies can survive solely with physical versions—­their rate of obsolescence is simply too fast.

Cognitive Dematerialization Cognitive dematerialization allows our thought processes and skills to be carried out by computers. Consider the financial industry. Historically, trading was limited to stocks, bonds, and commodities bought and sold physically by traders in trading pits and recorded later on paper. This process was slow, labor

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intensive, and expensive. Computerization of trading and execution was faster, reduced costs, and eliminated errors and fraud—­ leading to the virtual extinction of trading pits and inaccessible exchanges, allowing people to trade directly from anywhere, at little to no cost. This did not, however, simply lead to a reduction in jobs; the disruptions of the existing industry led to the creation of entirely different ones. The power and speed of computers led to the creation and use of a massive range of much more complex instruments—­derivatives of all types. The trading pits were soon replaced by enormous trading floors in banks with more and more powerful computers on every desk. Large compliance departments and back-­office departments were built to manage these new computer models and new-­style traders. So, despite computerization eliminating certain jobs, the creation of an entirely new set of paradigms allowed for a massive expansion of the entire banking and financial service business around the world, and employment in financial services increased dramatically—­ at least for a time. Within a couple of decades, financial technology (fintech) became its own sector and began to deliver systems that could price, clear, and account for most instruments. This has led to the replacement of much of the back-­office and compliance staff with computers. Programs can now also replicate much of the decision-­ making (i.e., trading) process. This has led to the shrinking (and/or closing) of trading floors, to be replaced by smaller teams of quants and engineers to build models and increase trading speed and efficiency. Computers are increasingly faster than humans and with the adoption of AI, will learn to conduct most of the decision-­making functions as well. Although the number of people employed in the financial services industry remains robust because the size of the market has become many times larger, the Sword of Damocles hangs threateningly overhead.

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Even the spreadsheet is a stealth example of demate­rialization: • Almost all of us use the spreadsheet. It is now an invaluable everyday tool. • Yet in the early 1980s, it was a mere combination of a calculator and a glorified list. But by the 1990s, financial models, manually executed on a piece of paper, taking hours, days, or weeks, and prone to significant errors, became virtually extinct. Once the spreadsheet embedded formulas and allowed rapid changing of assumptions, it enabled a broad range of sensitivity analyses. • Today, we just input our model and add our assumptions. The spreadsheet is now a representation of our total thought process. It “knows” and has been taught what our expectations are and what we are thinking. We can even use colors, such as a red number for a “no” and a green number for a “yes,” to highlight when the model works for us to quickly see the result. • Every time we encounter something new, we merely change the input fields, and the spreadsheet automatically determines whether it is viable for us, showing an emphatic green or red cell. It takes less than a second to compute. • We have, in effect, dematerialized days of our brain power and time into a single second of computing time—­with much better, more reliable, more accurate, and more visible results. This enormous amount of time saved, combined with the accuracy of the results, means using spreadsheets is no longer optional if one wants to remain competitive. For a large corporation, spreadsheets are probably saving hundreds of thousands of work hours every year. These are jobs already lost.

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• One could argue the computer system and spreadsheet have not really learned anything about us and are merely tools. This is true. But they have dematerialized our knowledge. • And that was then. Further changes on a dramatically greater scale are already in process. Soon AI systems, like ChatGPT, will be embedded into the once humble spreadsheet, taking their use to a completely new level. The next generation of spreadsheets are destined to become the decision-­makers and communicators as well. • And scarily, we haven’t even noticed this happening.

Where Are the Future Centers of Innovation? There are many countries around the world with extraordinary innovators, scientists, and engineers active and successful in many areas of technological advancement. Far and away the most important for frontier technologies in terms of size and geopolitical importance are the United States and China. For better or worse, they operate on distinct and often contradictory poles. The United States champions democracy and open policy, while China has government-­focused central policy planning. Leadership styles and approaches are quite different. Because it is largely unconstrained in the short term, China has a greater ability to engage in projects that involve danger and health risk, to deploy the workforce where and when needed, and to allocate budget without public scrutiny. Its leadership can also effectively silence or absorb private entities in a way infeasible in the United States. Technology has been a (if not the) core focus of Chinese leadership over the past 15 years, and the advances made from simply manufacturing, replicating, or from time to

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time acquiring IP without the owners’ knowledge have been extraordinary. And the pace appears to be accelerating on many fronts. China’s inroads into high-­end chip manufacturing, as well as social media and data harnessing through TikTok, are also impressive, and the list goes on. The United States, the heart of venture capital related innovation since the late 1970s explosion of the Silicon Valley, continues to be the most important center of both research and development, and many of its greatest successes still dominate around the globe. The United States, however, remains constrained by public opinion, regulation, and the capital market’s obsession with short-­ term performance. Its recent restrictive immigration policies, higher tax rates, and dysfunctional politics have cost it a certain degree of talent. Yet, with careful management, it should (and probably will) remain a global magnet for innovators of all types. Although largely a two-­horse race, with the winner undetermined, there are two specific countries with the ability to make particularly broadscale contributions—­both with strong ties to the United States. Israel, the technological success of which blossomed from military experience and necessity, has more recently developed a wide range of young professionals with talent and extraordinary motivation. Its location, politics, and size are unlikely to see it become a front-­runner, but its influence in many areas should not be underestimated. The dark horse in the race, with a potential to far exceed its bookmaking odds, is the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom brings together many characteristics that could make it ideal as a global hub, perhaps even the United Nations of Technology: • It has a strong tradition of rule of law—­the basis, in fact, of many other countries’ own legal systems—­ and is well respected in areas of intellectual property.

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• There is a real focus to promote early stage innovation; at the same time there is an effort to set up a framework for longer term regulation to safeguard innovation and to stay on the right side of the law over time. • Its excellent network of research universities and medical centers comprise departments that are among the world leaders in all hard sciences, mathematics, information technology, and medical technology. • Its operating language is English, which outside of China (and Japan) is the dominant science and business language around the globe. • For those not enamored with the United States and its policies, it is not the United States. Still, it vaunts, probably not unreasonably, the most favored nation (MFN) status, which on many fronts is desirable. Many countries would like to have close relations with the United States without needing to trumpet the fact. • The country, particularly London, is cosmopolitan and the lifestyle very attractive to many. • Although no longer part of the European Union, it remains next door and is also in a good time zone and air-­travel position to be a global center. • Unless UK politicians choose to be short-­termist, they will not change the United Kingdom’s status as one of the great world tax havens for wealthy individuals. If this were to change, it could have the long-term effect of people moving themselves and their businesses to other countries that offer more favorable treatment. • As the country is in strong need of new sources of tax revenue, there should be room to negotiate interesting concessions to attract corporate development. • It is not the seat of any other international body and can remain truly independent.

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Investing in Frontier Technologies for Profit and Social Benefit: A Quantum Leap? “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” —­Laozi

Although entrepreneurs can, and do, originate a business virtually anywhere, evolving a successful, sustainable business in fast-­ moving technologies is much more complicated. There are three extremely important elements: • The ability to bring together and maintain a team. Although highly decentralized (virtual organizations are more feasible today), the heart of most emerging technology companies is creativity-­fostered innovation, something difficult to achieve at a distance. • The next step to success is to ensure easy formal and informal access to relevant people with expertise who have been there before. Advice on how best to develop, manufacture, and sell a product can be extremely valuable; help in avoiding obvious mistakes can be the difference between life and death. • The final element is capital. Technology companies are renowned for grossly underestimating their need for cash. If a product is behind schedule and there is no cash in the bank—­it is out of business. If a product is ahead of schedule, yet expenses for selling and administration are over budget, and there is no cash, the company is also out of business. The flow of capital to new technologies and businesses is their lifeblood, making those who control the finances perhaps the most important of all constituencies. With that in mind:

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◦◦ Serious investors into disruptive technologies should not look at maximizing short-­ term investment returns, as changing the world is not a short-­term endeavor. ◦◦ Long-­ term investment requires thought and perseverance. The rewards can be extraordinary; the conviction needs to reflect this. ◦◦ The odds of backing the right company are low; having an investment team that knows how to secure ongoing capital and provide valuable advice helps improve those odds. Understanding when to pull the plug is also crucial. The best investment is not into the vision of a technology (although it is obviously an important element) but into the team creating and turning that vision into a monetizable product or service. Back only those teams that have clear goals, work well together, and that you can trust when things are not going well. Following are some key practical steps: • Control the legal documents. They are not just there to be used in the case of disputes; if properly structured and well thought out, they can have an immense impact on the overall tone of the business. Experienced early-­stage investors, with the right experience, through their efforts (time and money), can add significant value. • When investing, actively engage in the company. Or, if investing via funds, choose those with teams that do the same thing. • Intelligent venture investing requires a portfolio approach. No matter how good a single company (or technology) and no matter how good the investment research, there are always hidden flaws. This is an area where putting

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all your eggs in one basket, is risky; being more diversified in one’s approach has much better risk-­adjusted returns. • Investing for “good”—­ finding companies that can benefit the world. This is no harder than finding those who don’t care. The goal is not to find founders who are idealists or idealogues, but those who understand the more constituents you satisfy, the better your chances of running the gauntlet of hurdles and achieving long-­ term success. • Becoming a successful technology company requires significant luck. Workplaces that bring entrepreneurs, start-­ups, and those with relevant experience (success and failure) together increase the potential for creativity, reduce failure to spot trends and also allow for interactions on more mundane business issues. The right overall environment increases the odds of being in the right place at the right time—­orchestrating serendipity. • Profit should be the strongest motivator. Being an active part in improving the world can also fit in, but only if one remains in business. The level of excitement and trepidation technology arouses has become truly palpable. It is drawing in an increasing percentage of the world’s greatest minds. More and more technologies—­ useful and/or predatory—­are becoming part of our lives, and gradually we are acknowledging their existence. Our accurately attempting to predict the future would be both naïve and unhelpful; and so our principal conclusion is that the pace at which technology grows and is adopted will continue to accelerate unabated.

Key Takeaways This chapter looked at when technologies are responsible for building themselves. We are already at a stage where they can

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write, draw, and even code computers better than many systems programmers: • We are not necessarily aware of the changes happening around us. Because something has not occurred in the past, assuming it won’t now or in the future appears rather disingenuous as well as quite dangerous. • Certain industries with fast refresh cycles are adopting new technologies at an accelerating rate. Those with structural impediments, such as significant invested capital, large installed bases, external regulation, and/or resistant constituencies, will take significantly more time. In the long run, however, change is inevitable for all of them. • Daily, we witness but might not fully recognize the technological dematerialization around us. It can either be physical or cognitive. Many of the physical items we use are being reduced in size and our knowledge is being turned into bits and bytes. • While China and the United States are the behemoths in the technology world, with the proper support, there are reasons to believe the United Kingdom could also be a key global hub. • We are already at the stage when technologies can build other technologies under our direction, such as ChatGPT and GitHub Copilot. There will come a stage when technologies can actually build themselves without our oversight: the truly unsupervised. • The future of technology depends on many factors. Given its voracious appetite and need for capital, the investment community has the potential for enormous influence. Much capital seeks rapid returns. If you are going to be greedy, be long-­ term greedy. That involves being more thoughtful about the process and not simply looking at the short-­term financial aspects.

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• While investing in frontier technologies shares many of the same fundamentals as traditional venture investing (investing in great founders, teams, and products), changing the world is often a more complicated, volatile, and longer-­term endeavor. Working closely as a team, sharing and sparking ideas and carefully monitoring underlying technology shifts, with a willingness to be more flexible, are particularly important elements in the success of disruptive technologies, both financially and for society as a whole.

CHAPTER

13 Key Influencers on Frontier Technologies

“The question isn’t who is going to let me; it’s who is going to stop me.” —­Ayn Rand

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he authors of this book are both proponents and beneficiaries of the immense benefits of frontier technologies. We are often admirers of, and sometimes investors in, many of the impressive people and companies behind these technologies. However, it cannot have gone unnoticed that this book is also intended as a warning. The enormous power amassed by some of the magnates of the industrial revolution, whose impact was transformative to the world, subsequently became problematic and required the creation of regulations and regulators. The Cognitive Revolution has transformational risks potentially 295

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orders of magnitude greater, with their effects much harder to control and/or reverse. Consequently, it is vital to anticipate issues ahead of time and work to create frameworks that encourage innovation yet do not allow the concentration of unsupervised power to a very select few—­no matter who they are, how brilliant they might be, or how strongly they might believe they are improving the world. Revolutions don’t start themselves. Technologies are the result of either carefully planned or more serendipitous actions by a single person or group. Even for those that start off benign or altruistic, the road from concept to execution is paved with the brutal reality that advancement is not achieved through consensus but force of vision. Darwin’s hypothesis regarding the evolutionary survival of the fittest has been applied to many domains and is certainly applicable to entrepreneurial capitalism. The individuals and organizations who create the most impact and are able to retain the reins over implementation will have had to overcome untold numbers of attacks from competitors. The candidates for key influencers in this chapter have each amassed extraordinarily disproportionate levels of power in these domains in a short period of time; many have done so in a way that has hardly been challenged or controlled. Because the technological engines are growing exponentially, the concentration of power will continue to increase unless some forms of checks and balances are imposed. There are clearly hundreds or even thousands of people who influence and build these technologies. They will have immense impact today and on future generations. In assembling our list, we focussed on these seven criteria: • An understanding of the exponential power of a spectrum of technologies and an appreciation of how they interact.

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• Proven abilities to effectively get new projects/products off the ground, execute them, and then grow and keep them alive in a highly competitive and challenging environment. • Wealth, or at least a great ability, to attract capital to advance new ideas. • The proven power and drive to influence political, economic, and social process. • The force of personality to bring together the best people and then be able to lead or coerce them. • The ability to get the message across effectively through diverse media to the greatest number of people. • The ability to consolidate power and maintain or expand their position. This list is a moving target and will change all the time. The order chosen reflects our current views on potential for realized impact.

Mark Zuckerberg USA. Chairman, CEO, and Controlling Shareholder of Meta—­ Parent Company of  Facebook, Instagram, Whats­ App, Llama.  Zuckerberg is first on our list because at under 40, he runs and controls the largest social media platforms in the world with more than 60,000 employees, $100 billion in annual revenue, and billions of users. For years, he has been building the next generation of the Web, metaverse, as well as AR/VR, behavioral and AI systems, and he is an expert and leader in many world-­changing technologies. At 19, he hacked his college servers and created a system to compare the faces of women students attending Harvard

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College. A year later, he created and launched a social network for college students, who freely gave him their personal details in return for the ability to connect online with their friends. The amount of data collected expanded so quickly it required a powerful computer system to manage it. A few years later, after significant product evolution, Zuckerberg embedded behavioral science to improve user product engagement, essentially creating an addiction for what grew to billions of users. This behavioral manipulation is empowered by frontier technologies that require minimal human intervention to operate. Today, the frontier technologies behind Facebook, and its other social network peers, are 250 times more powerful. They have changed the world, both positively and negatively. They have brought together an untold number of people who otherwise would not have connected, been integral in revolutions, empowered autocrats, and affected the results of elections—­mostly without the public understanding how or focusing on the implications. Facebook has now rebranded itself as Meta, spent billions on immersive AR/VR and Metaverse technologies, and quickly pivoted in early 2023 to focus on AI (a technology on which Zuckerberg already spends billions). Zuckerberg is one of the richest people on the planet and believes frontier technologies will be a force for good. His investment in AI and his control of his company highlight his determination for Meta to stay ahead. He is now concentrating his phenomenal intellect and unimaginable resources on keeping Meta ahead in frontier technology delivery. Considering what Facebook has delivered, no one should ignore his goals. By 2040 these technologies will be more than 1,000 times more powerful than they are today.

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Xi Jinping China. “Paramount” Leader of  China, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, President of the PRC, and Head of  the Military.  President Xi is the leader and most powerful person in a country of more than a billion people; he has one of the strongest militaries in the world and is extremely aware of the power of frontier technologies, especially quantum computing. China is investing vast resources into these technologies and has an enormous and available population on which to test them. Effectively without elections, he has the luxury of being able to play a very long game. In 1979, at the age of 26, Xi started his journey in party politics as secretary for the then Vice Premier and Secretary-­General of the Central Military Commission, where he was well educated on the power and importance of military strength. Fast-­ forwarding to 2013, Xi was “elected” President of the People’s Republic of China. Frequently described as pragmatic, hardworking, and down to Earth, he used these skills to not only advance the Chinese economy and its global status but also to gradually centralize power (around himself) and gain control over the economy. In 2018, he was able to have abolished the two-­term limit on the presidency. In 2021, Xi appeared to have taken a firmer line with frontier technologies, going so far as to pressure Jack Ma and Zhang Yiming to step down from Alibaba and ByteDance (owner of TikTok), respectively. Xi had, until COVID-­19 started, very effectively used Western financial systems to raise ever more money for his technology giants, subsequently taking them over when they become large enough to be

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a potential challenge to him, while continuing to deploy their awesome technologies globally. He is now waging an assault on China-­based technology that evolved through his “acceptance” of freer markets; his goal clearly seems to be to use them as the foundation for a Chinese Communist Party–based technology future. Xi fully understands the power of frontier technologies, particularly the asymmetric advantage that quantum computing can bring. China is believed to be investing the most to accelerate the quantum computing revolution, with the aim of shaping both the domestic Chinese and global economies and societies. In having the Communist Party take one of three board seats in TikTok, he now has access to—­and maybe even control of—­the inner workings of one of the world’s most sophisticated AI systems and the largest set of global personal data. In China, it appears most companies are becoming mere instruments of the Chinese Communist Party while, ironically, still being partly funded in the global capital markets. If the West does not align to manage this properly, Xi and his successors will be positioned to dominate many frontier technologies around the globe.

Elon Musk South Africa/Canada/USA. CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, Owner of  Twitter, Founder of  the Boring Company, Cofounder of OpenAI and Neuralink.  Musk is third-­equal on our list as the richest tech businessman in the world and among the most media savvy, with a combination of high-­profile and direct connection to his consumer base. He has proven on several occasions he can build global companies and scale them incredibly rapidly with new technologies that are disrupting various spaces. He owns Neuralink, which integrates chips into human brains, is CEO of

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Tesla, which could become a powerful AI platform, and is very much aware of the benefits and dangers of frontier technologies. He co-­founded OpenAI, a leader in the evolution of AI, and was an early investor in DeepMind, the AI company acquired by Google. He is also now the owner of Twitter, the global town square platform, with access to a treasure trove of data. Along with Peter Thiel, Musk was one of six cofounders (and the largest shareholder) of PayPal in 2000, which grew to be a major money-­transfer service and was acquired for $1.5 billion in 2002. In that year, Elon founded SpaceX, and in 2004, he became the majority investor in Tesla—­the primary source of his wealth expansion. Known equally for his ability to grow disruptive businesses and for his outspoken views on many topics, Musk has been effective in using frontier technologies to propel his businesses (and his ideology). Twitter potentially provides him with even more control over this narrative. He is also extremely public about his concerns that frontier technologies will become a threat to humanity. He believes in less than 5 years AI will be vastly smarter than humans, and that high levels of instability are likely to follow.

Peter Thiel Germany/USA. Cofounder of PayPal, Palantir Technologies, the  Founders Fund, and First Outside Investor in  Face­ book.  Peter Thiel, tied for third on this list with Elon Musk, is one of the most successful venture capitalists in Silicon Valley. He made visionary early major investments in Palantir and Facebook, both of which collect vast amounts of data and use it to develop and deliver technologies that influence behavior (Facebook direct to consumer, and Palantir through governments,

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military, and large corporations). Influencing behavior is one of the most rapidly developing and potentially most controversial areas within frontier technologies. His effectiveness in investing in the collection and use of big data is probably second to none. Palantir is named after the stone Sauron, the ruler of the evil empire of Mordor, used to see through things and to the farthest reaches of the kingdoms in Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings. Bloomberg’s headline in 2018 warned, “Palantir Knows Everything About You: [the] data-­mining company is using War on Terror tools to track American citizens.”1 The scary thing? It’s not unlikely Thiel knew the text of this book before we did.

Samuel Altman USA. Cofounder of OpenAI.  Altman is founder of OpenAI, which focuses solely on artificial intelligence and frontier technologies with ongoing phenomenal achievements. He is extremely conscious that this technology poses a threat to humans. Few had heard of him before ChatGPT was launched in 2022, and his history as a manager of businesses has not been one of visible successes. He became hooked on computers at the age of 8 and at 19 cofounded his first location-­based social network, which raised more than $30 million in venture capital (but subsequently failed). He has been a venture investor and president of Y Combinator and YC Continuity, funds with broad investments across the technology spectrum. In 2015, with Musk, he cofounded OpenAI, a company focused on advancing digital intelligence to use technology to help humanity. In 2020, the company licensed the incredibly 1 Peter Waldman, Lizette Chapman, and Jordan Robertson, “Palantir Knows Everything about You,” Bloomberg.com (Bloomberg, April 19, 2018), www.bloomberg.com/features/2018-­palantir-­peter-­thiel/#xj4y7 vzkg.

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powerful GPT-­3, one of the most transformative AI programs ever produced, to Microsoft. GPT-­3 allowed users without programming or even technical expertise to create their own sophisticated programs. ChatGPT now produces such high-­quality text it is difficult to distinguish it from a human. Even some of OpenAI’s own engineers warn of its potential dangers and have called for research to mitigate such risks. Altman believes, along with his cofounders Ilya Sutskever and Greg Brockman, former CTO of Stripe, that over time frontier technology could pose an existential risk to humans.

Demis Hassabis UK. CEO and Cofounder of  DeepMind.  Hassabis is cofounder of DeepMind—­ now owned by Google. As with ­OpenAI, DeepMind is completely focused on AI and frontier technologies and has been extremely effective. Demis believes “super-­intelligence”—­where computer intelligence exceeds that of humans—­ will happen. Hardly a month goes by without another amazing announcement from DeepMind on its new technological advances. Like Altman was (until recently), Hassabis is not well known to the broader public. His intense intelligence manifested itself early as a chess prodigy and then a Cambridge scholarship recipient at age 16. At 17, during his gap year, he codesigned and was lead programmer on a video game that sold 10 million copies. After graduating with a double major from Cambridge, he started his own game development company, which enjoyed less success, and in 2005 he moved to University College London to pursue his passions in neuroscience and AI. In 2009, he received his PhD, conducted some postdoctoral work, and then cofounded a machine learning/AI start-­up called DeepMind Technologies. The company was acquired by Google for £400 million in 2014.

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DeepMind’s mission is to combine the powers of the human mind (neuroscience) with those of both computer hardware and software to create “artificial general intelligence.” The company not only was the first to beat a world champion in the game Go, but created a neural Turing machine to enhance energy efficiency in cooling systems at Google, and has been focusing considerable attention on the healthcare field, including successful efforts in “protein folding.” DeepMind’s overall mission is to “solve intelligence” and then use this intelligence “to solve everything else.” DeepMind now powers almost all the AI used by Google’s products. Elon Musk, an early investor in DeepMind, cofounded ­OpenAI to counter the enormous threat he believes DeepMind presents as it takes advantage of immense advances in computing and the extraordinary growth power of its own algorithmic iterative learning. Elon Musk has also distanced himself from OpenAI.

Jensen Huang USA/Taiwan. Cofounder, President, and CEO of  Nvidia Corporation.  Jensen is a cofounder, president, and CEO of Nvidia Corporation, most well-­known for its graphic processing units (GPUs) and chips for mobile phones. However, this is just the start; according to Fubon Securities Investment Services, in 2022  Nvidia accounted for 95 percent of all AI chip sales in China. Moreover, Nvidia is also a software company delivering foundational platforms for high-­ performance computing and application programming interfaces (APIs), which enable and simplify the communications and interactions among two or more computer programs. Its CUDA API, which streamlines the development of massively parallelized software, the basis of modern AI software, is considered a vital part of the global semiconductor supply chain. In the metaverse space, Nvidia also offers its

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Universal Scene Description software for building an open metaverse. In addition, its Omniverse platform creates complex simulations, including incorporating generative AI, to evaluate processes and conditions in virtual worlds before deploying them—­or not—­in the real world. In aggregate, Nvidia is a key global leader in AI, with both world-­leading hardware and software solutions. Through Nvidia alone, the United States has a dominant position in AI software and hardware. Huang was born in Taiwan, studied electrical engineering at Oregon State University, and earned a master’s from Stanford University. Before cofounding Nvidia on his 30th birthday in 1993, he worked at LSI Logic and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). He has been named one of the world’s top 50 influencers in edge computing and the best-­performing CEO in the world by Harvard Business Review. Jensen Huang believes frontier technologies can be a force for good for humanity, if access is democratized (as we do). This is confirmed even by ChatGPT, which says that in interviews and public statements, Jensen Huang has generally expressed enthusiasm for the potential of AI to transform a wide range of industries and applications. However, he has also acknowledged that there are potential risks and challenges with AI. He has emphasized the need for its transparent and ethical use and advocated for the development of AI systems that are explainable and interpretable to promote trust and accountability.

Satya Nadella USA/India. Executive Chairman and CEO of  Micro­ soft.  Around 1.6 billion devices run on Windows software. Every day, Microsoft analyzes 6.5 trillion signals to identify threats to protect their customers; its Seeing AI app helps

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20 million people better navigate their world; and its intelligent assistant has been asked 18 billion questions. Microsoft Office, into which OpenAI’s technology, GPT and ChatGPT are being integrated, has 1.2 billion users. Satya Nadella implemented a complete culture shift at Microsoft and the entire technology industry. He is without doubt one of the most influential people in technology, and Microsoft is a global leader in frontier technologies and the future of AR. Nadella started his career at Sun Microsystems, joining Microsoft in 1992 where he worked in several departments. He became CEO in 2014, following Steve Balmer. He is credited with transforming Microsoft to a software-­as-­a-­service (SaaS) model and investing in OpenAI. Microsoft also recently made an offer to purchase Activision Blizzard, the game developer, which could prove to be integral as an interface of many frontier technologies from AI through quantum computing. Nadella believes frontier technologies are a force for good and that they will help bring people from everywhere together. In 2023 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he said that the world needs these technologies to increase productivity.

Jeff Bezos USA. Executive Chairman of  Amazon.  Bezos, although he has retired as CEO from Amazon, remains executive chairman, a major shareholder, and a strong influencer. He is still relatively young and one of the world’s richest businessmen. Despite his goal of enjoying life more, he remains heavily engaged in frontier technologies and will continue to be a driving force into the future. Bezos started his career in fintech and then transitioned into financial services at Bankers Trust and then D.E. Shaw. With a vision of the growth of the Internet, he and his then wife went

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“all in,” quitting their “real jobs” to found Amazon—­initially an online bookstore—­in 1994. Over time, the online retail business expanded into music and videos and eventually into every conceivable domain. Bezos, well ahead of the pack, understood his greatest asset was the vast data horde he was creating and expanding every day from his retail customer base. In 2002, he established a web service business that aggregated data and was one of the first companies to actively exploit the Cloud as the leading world’s information storage medium. Amazon has also just launched Bedrock, a fully managed AI foundation models available through an API and Braket, a fully managed Cloud-Based quantum computing service. Today, Amazon is one of the most valuable companies in the world, based both on the cash flows generated from current businesses and on the extensive future commercial opportunities its vast data resources open up. There have been concerns voiced in many places about the power of Amazon, its often-­controversial management style, its confrontational approach in its dealings with regulators, and the brash style of Bezos himself. Bezos stepping back might indicate a diminishing interest in being a frontier technology oligarch, but that is hard to imagine.

Marc Benioff USA. Co-­CEO and Chairman of Salesforce.  Benioff is the founder and CEO of Salesforce, a company that has evolved from being the premier customer relationship management (CRM) company into a Cloud-Based collector and manipulator of data (as well as a solution implementor) for some of the largest companies in the world. The amount of guidance (direct and indirect) Salesforce provides, without the world being aware, makes it one of the greatest powerhouses in technology today.

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At the age of 15, Benioff founded a software company that made games for the Atari console. A year later he was earning enough to pay for college. Upon graduation he joined Oracle, where at 26, he became the youngest person (at the time) to become a vice president. In 1999, he cofounded a company with the cool slogan “The end of software.” His SaaS company, Salesforce, is now one of the biggest users of frontier technologies with sales of more than $25 billion a year. It focuses on CloudBased data collection and its use in sales, marketing, analytics, IoT, customized app development, and customer service. Benioff believes frontier technologies can be a force for good, but humanity needs to be careful to make sure their negative aspects do not outweigh the positive ones.

Vladimir Putin Russia. President (for Life).  Putin not only has consolidated his power to personally control Russia and its energy resources, but is very engaged in the power of technology to influence world affairs. He is ex-­KGB, has remained in power for 22 years, has one of the world’s largest nuclear weapons capabilities and possibly the most sophisticated active cyber warfare capabilities at his disposal. In 1998, Putin was director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia. A year later, at 48 years old, he was appointed acting prime minister by President Yeltsin, becoming acting president when Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned. In 2000, Putin won the presidential “election” with 53 percent of the vote and became one of the most powerful people in the world. Quickly centralizing power, he established himself as de facto president for life and assumed total control over one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world, along with its nuclear arsenal. From his previous position as head of the FSB he

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was an expert on creating “asymmetric advantage” and was quick to understand the potential future power of frontier technologies. Putin would certainly have been higher on our list, but he currently has more pressing things to worry about than frontier technologies. Also, Russia has a fast-­declining demographic and indefensible borders, and, as an aging autocrat, he will likely be significantly focused on his own (and his family’s) personal futures. Losing power in autocracies rarely ends well.

Changpeng Zhao (“CZ”) Canada/China. Founder and CEO of  Binance.  CZ is the CEO and largest shareholder in Binance, the world’s largest (and extraordinarily profitable) cryptocurrency exchange. He has also invested in and acquired several key exchanges and infrastructure projects behind cryptocurrency and decentralized blockchains and has been concentrating his power, investing in a wide range of blockchain projects. His position makes him extremely influential in a rapidly changing space that depends heavily on frontier technologies. After starting his career helping develop a trade order matching system for the Tokyo Stock Exchange and then four years developing trading software at Bloomberg, he moved to Shanghai to found Fusion Systems to build superfast high-­frequency trading systems. In 2017, he founded Binance, a cryptocurrency trading exchange, with an initial coin offering of $15  million, which he grew in less than a year into the world’s largest volume cryptocurrency exchange. CZ quickly moved the headquarters out of China—­it is currently in the Caymans and Seychelles—­to avoid the upcoming Chinese government crackdown. Although clearly in the crosshairs of regulators in different jurisdictions, he has been adept so far at evading them.

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For those with concerns about the ethics and potential dangers of centralized cryptocurrency, CZ represents a clear example. Yet his ability to create technology-­based opportunities at Binance that produce billions of dollars of annual profits makes him an important factor in the current cryptocurrency and blockchain world. As tokenization and cryptocurrency have the potential to significantly disrupt the entire financial services industry, CZ is likely to be one of the biggest influencers in this new fintech revolution. CZ claims decentralization can be a force for good; yet he has a vice-­like control on the majority of the supposedly decentralized tokenized world through a fully centralized exchange.

Vitaly Buterin (“Vitalik”) Canada/Russia. Cofounder of Ethereum.  Vitalik is the first founder of Ethereum and remains its visionary leader. Ethereum is building a world computer, and if successful, it will be one of the most powerful systems in the world. Having emigrated from Russia to Canada at the age of 6, he was placed in a class for gifted children focusing on math and programming. At 17, Vitaly learned about Bitcoin from his father. He briefly attended Waterloo University, and in 2013, wrote a paper outlining his concept for Ethereum. In 2014, he received a $100,000 fellowship from Peter Thiel and left university to focus full-­time on Ethereum, which he developed with Anthony Di Iorio and later Gavin Wood, Charles Hoskinson, Joseph Lubin, and others. Vitalik believes frontier technologies can be a force for good. Given his age, Buterin is likely to be a highly influential player for a long time to come.

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Tim Cook USA. CEO of  Apple Inc.  Tim Cook’s position on our list might seem low, but although Apple is a trendsetter and immense user of frontier technologies, Cook is a CEO, not a founder, and is somewhat constrained by the corporate structure around him. Moreover, the trends toward dematerialization and AI may impact Apple’s ecosystem. Their devices are built to be ergonomic and may suffer as miniaturization progresses. Plus, Apple does not visibly appear to be a leader in AI compared to the likes of Google, Microsoft, and Meta; however, their modus operandi is not to announce developments until their products are customer-­ready, so it is hard to tell. From its early days, Apple focused on using innovative technology and making it attractive and usable to consumers. Originally penalized for being business to consumer, rather than business to business, the company has evolved not only into a major force in technology and popular culture, but also as the aggregator of vast amounts of information on its users. More than one billion people own an iPhone, which tracks untold amounts of information on each of its users. Apple, unlike its competitors and most technology information aggregators, does not sell the information it collects. In fact, it has a secure and privacy-­first model that uses all information collected to refine its products and deliver services to its customer base. Apple appears to remain true to its core values and will be an important player in the information wars going forward. Cook, as CEO, will be a powerful voice and influence on the future adoption and use of new technologies especially with the expected 2023 release of its AR/VR headset which will likely accelerate mass market adoption.

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Peter Diamandis USA. Founder of  Singularity University and Founder/Vice Chairman of  the XPrize Foundation.  Peter Diamandis has power as a visionary influencer. He has an enormous following and specializes in the future of frontier technologies. From the age of 8, he lectured friends and family on space travel and after university went on to design rockets. He is the founder of Singularity University and the XPRIZE Foundation, whose board members include Elon Musk and Larry Page. Singularity University encourages “exponential” thinking, and the XPRIZE awards $10 million prizes to teams that achieve notable accomplishments in their chosen fields, mainly in flight, automotive, and space. Peter also runs the Zero Gravity Corporation, which took Stephen Hawking on his zero-­gravity flight. Peter believes in the “abundance” future and is fully engaged in promoting a better world with frontier technologies. He authored the New York Times bestseller Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think, laying out the potential for exponential technology to significantly increase global living standards over the next 25 years. He also cofounded and is vice-­chairman of Human Longevity Inc., which is focused on extending the healthy human life span. Diamandis worries that fear is our standard reaction to the dramatic reinvention that exponential frontier technologies forces on entire business models, industries, markets, and the world. This, he believes, will limit our taking advantage of the benefits these exciting technologies should deliver. He advocates the way to tackle this fear is through knowledge and community.

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He also recognizes that “stuff goes wrong. . .expect it, learn from it, fix it—­that’s how remarkable things happen.”2 The following people are all tied at 16th on our list:

Anne Wojcicki USA. Cofounder and CEO of 23andMe.  23andMe holds a huge (and rapidly growing) amount of health and genetic data on millions of people around the world. It has the potential not only to leverage this to accelerate the individualization of healthcare but also to become the Facebook of people’s genetic material. Such a database of sensitive personal information could at the same time be both extraordinarily valuable and among the most dangerous information data pools ever known.

Tim Sweeney USA, Founder and CEO of Epic Games.  Computer gaming is an almost $200 billion industry, reaching 2.5 billion players globally. The industry is very fast moving, has been at the forefront of driving computer innovation and adoption and behavioral science applications, and is likely to be a key foundational pillar for the Metaverse. Epic—­still in private hands—­is one of the most successful computer game companies in the world, having created both the game Fortnite and the Unreal 3D development engine. Tim Sweeney is founder and CEO with an estimated net worth of around $10 billion. Fortnite has some 400 million registered users, and the Unreal Engine is used by many companies to build their games and includes some of the most advanced metaverse and metahuman creation capabilities. The immersive 2 Peter H. Diamandis, “Flying Stephen Hawking in Zero-­G,” Peter Diamandis -­Innovation & Entrepreneurship Community, accessed April 5, 2023, www.diamandis.com/blog/stephen-­hawking-­in-­zero-­g.

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worlds that technologies such as Unreal can create are likely to be the multimodal (a combination of text, audio, images and video) interfaces for many of the AI and frontier technology solutions that will be deployed.

Eric Schmidt USA. Philanthropist, Author, Speaker and Advisor on  AI, and Former CEO of Google.  Eric Emerson Schmidt is the former CEO of Google (now Alphabet) and one of the world’s richest people from the disruptive data-­based technology arena. He now focuses on the future of AI, having coauthored The Age of AI: And Our Human Future. Schmidt is chair of the Defense Innovation Advisory Board, which connects the technology sector and the Pentagon. He is particularly active in warning that the United States is under threat from China’s AI and advises governments on the future.

Marc Andreessen USA. Cofounder of Netscape and of Andreessen Horow­ itz (a16z).  Marc Andreessen is cofounder of Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), the Silicon Valley venture capital (VC) firm. He was the co-­author of Mosaic, the first mass adopted web browser, and cofounder of Netscape. Marc advises Mark Zuckerberg and other key clients. a16z is among the most influential venture investment firms, with more than $28 billion in AUM. Its latest cryptocurrency fund alone raised more than $4 billion. New technologies need both capital and guidance. Andreessen can provide both, and his prior successes put him in a position of considerable power and influence in new technologies. Through a16z he is in a prime position to find and select interesting new technology startups and empower those in which they invest.

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Bill Gates USA. Cofounder of  Microsoft.  Bill Gates is cofounder of Microsoft, as well as an investor, author, and philanthropist. He has a net worth of more than $100 billion and is the most visible technology and healthcare activist in the world. He has the ear of almost every global leader and has very strong views on his fields of interest. He dedicates his time and money to solving the problems he sees humanity facing. In 2010, along with Warren Buffet, he launched the Giving Pledge to persuade billionaires to donate 50 percent of their wealth to charity. Hundreds of billionaires have committed more than $500 billion, including Michael Bloomberg, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Mackenzie Bezos.

Klaus Schwab Germany. Founder and Executive Chairman of  the World Economic Forum.  Klaus Schwab is an author, and the founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum (WEF). WEF is known to have enormous influence on global institutions and systems and a leading advocate of the “fourth Industrial Revolution,” which it calls a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way everyone lives, works, and relates to one another, a transformation that Schwab believes will be unlike anything humankind has experienced. Given his age, he is more likely to be an eminence grise. The future is in the hands of the younger generations of WEF.

Amaka Africa. Future Number One.  Amaka is a metaphor; there are thousands of Amakas across the world right now as you read this.

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Her technology has changed the world, and she has become the most powerful person in frontier technologies. Amaka represents all the young people growing up as “frontier technology native” through access with her parents’ mobile phone. As many technologies become general purpose, they will be the people that, unknown to the world until they achieve critical mass, will be building the frontier technology products and applications of the future that will be changing us all. At an early age she is making TikTok videos and communicating with her friends on WhatsApp. She sees the devastation caused by COVID-­19 and creates an app for her friends to follow the progress of the disease and alert them when they need to take care. By 2030, Amaka’s app has grown into a decentralized solution that allows her friends, and the whole of Africa, to communicate in secret, hold valuable tokens, earn a living online and in the metaverse, and access the world’s knowledge—­all controlled, secured, and delivered by frontier technologies she built with no coding education, using GitHub Copilot. Amaka has tapped into a $20 trillion market and has created a technology that can bring jobs and security to anyone anywhere in the world. By 2050, Amaka’s app is used by billions of people many earning an average of up to $100 a day in the Amaka token and spending their time in virtual worlds created by thousands of developers. She has freed hundreds of millions from the difficulties of finding jobs that would have required relocating as the world moves to frontier technologies eliminating their jobs. Amaka’s app controls their lives and their access to information and can even influence their behavior. And, as it is fully decentralized, the frontier technologies do it all by themselves. As her app is decentralized, she does not own it. She is well off, but not super-­rich. She is extremely private, and no one even knows who she really is. She has also shown how frontier technologies really can be a force for good, benefiting all of humanity.

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The President of the United States The President of the United States occupies what is arguably the most powerful seat in the world. The occupant, currently Joseph Biden, can have an immense amount of influence in the advancement of technology (through the support of direct funding, tax incentives, military channels, influence with allied countries around the globe, and other channels); however, the President is both constitutionally and practically limited by the statutory term of the office (four or eight years) and in the practical ability to execute mandates. The big power imbalance between him and President Xi or Putin is in running a democracy that not only is encumbered by a certain set of ethics but is also constrained by many powerful interests with agendas that do not necessarily align with the office’s short-­term economic and political goals, or the country’s longer-­term best interests. Nonetheless, the current administration has prevailed in major funding efforts to promote technology, most notably in the semiconductor and energy domains.

Key Constituencies Who Should Have Influence on the Future of Frontier Technologies “In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” —­George Orwell

The individuals on our list have tremendous power. Whether or not we agree with their philosophies and/or politics, this concentration of influence can be extremely dangerous. Fundamental aspects of the future are in the hands of a few people with their own personal agendas—­agendas that might or might not be in the best interest of the majority or interested in protecting the minority. What is the collective best? That depends on the time,

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the place, and who is asking the question. Regardless, it is essential more people, particularly our leaders, develop a broader and deeper awareness of the powers of new technologies and be part of shaping their evolution to limit negative or unintended consequences. Realistically, no single group can or should bear all the responsibilities. The following, however, represent constituencies that are best positioned to promote an active dialogue and engage in concrete actions. Perhaps most important is their power collective. The more they work together and challenge one another, the more they can heighten and influence public awareness.

Technology Executives Technology executives run the companies or develop the technologies that will change the future. Clearly, most have some (or a huge) degree of self-­interest in what they create and how. Much of it is extremely exciting and positive, yet few have the time, interest, or budget to focus on the potentially negative consequences that can evolve from the incredible technologies/products they are creating. Although far from perfect, this is the group best positioned and, ironically, most likely to be the most influential in detecting, understanding, monitoring, and dealing with the negative byproducts of what they create. There are four principal reasons: • Motivations. Many visionaries are not solely in it for the money. They are supercharged by the technologies themselves and the impact they can have. With the right prompting, a large number are likely to focus to some degree on building more protection into their products and processes

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while also remaining engaged in antidotes post-­ launch, when unexpected outcomes occur. • Competition. On one hand, executives are concerned about remaining ahead of their competitors; on the other, they need to actively monitor what others are doing and, in their own self-­interest, counteract some of the bad aspects and/or make the public aware. • Self-­interest. The more attacks or visibly negative externalities occur, the worse the perception of the product and the area as a whole, the greater the cost to remedy and the more the anticipated scrutiny from regulators. • Profits. There is a growing market for third-­party products that offer protection. Those creating and evolving technologies understand them better than anyone else, can anticipate problems and offer solutions to the market.

Investors Investors are a key pillar in the evolution of new technologies. They are the primary risk takers, providing the capital necessary to research, develop, deploy, and market new technologies. The investors, from seed through series A, B, C, D, and so on, are the main gatekeepers supporting and enabling those technologies that will eventually come to market. Many investment funds have considerable history and expertise in understanding the upside of new fields and evaluating the skill sets of the entrepreneurs approaching them. Many are well-­positioned to understand and help mitigate the negative consequences as well. They can provide invaluable advice to, and oversight of, first-­time entrepreneurs to build their businesses responsibly.

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Democratic Governments Democratic governments can have a dual impact on frontier technologies: • Funding and/or encouraging the creation and develop­ ment of new areas that can have positive social impact and/or be a potent economic driver. Governments can be pivotal in the effective and responsible deployment of technologies in a way that improves the lives and environments of their citizens. That said, they are often hampered by onerous and time-­ consuming decision-­ making processes and tend to focus on shorter-­term issues where the timelines and public visibility align closely with the election calendar. • Regulation. Many elected and appointed groups want to “protect” their citizens. These include elected officials, appointed regulators, public-­sector departments, and supranational governance bodies (e.g., the United Nations, the World Health Organization, and the European Commission). Although often acting with the best of intentions, they are beset by many intractable problems: ◦◦ The need to serve differing constituencies, often with conflicting positions and levels of power/influence. ◦◦ Having much less expertise in the technologies they seek to regulate than those creating and running them. ◦◦ A convoluted and often conflict-­driven decision-­making process that frequently produces results that are too late and often irrelevant. • Jurisdictional conflict. Governments and supranational organizations have their own agendas and seek controls based on their specific mandates and needs. The technologies themselves are most frequently without border and can move seamlessly to jurisdictions that impose the fewest restrictions.

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Despite their limitations, governments have financial resources to deploy and can do so in ways that encourage good behavior; they also have weapons they can use to discourage bad behavior—­ the ability to delay projects, impose fines, and have impact on public image. Of the global organizations, the officials of the European Union appear the most engaged with the dangers of frontier technologies. Their General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) laws have been exported internationally, though they have resulted in some entities relocating to countries with less regulation, and they are now proceeding with an artificial intelligence bill. While hampered by local government lawmakers, the EU Commissioners remain appointed, not elected, and thus arguably have a reasonable amount of power in the medium term.

Centralized Governments and Dictatorships Centralized governments and dictatorships are already among the leaders in the development and use of frontier technologies. They perceive these technologies as a fertile territory for gaining information both domestically and internationally and for using them as a tool to assist in achieving their specific set of agendas. Their aspirations are often not limited to within their own borders nor subject to the timing constraints of countries with freely elected politicians and quarterly reported earnings. On the other hand, without the use of significant force or complete information blackouts (which are becoming harder to achieve), they face a perpetual need to constrain their citizens, which over time is very inefficient and frequently self-­destructive. Nevertheless, to democracies, they remain a clear and present danger and a strong motivation to protect against the “misuse” of many technologies.

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Ideologues Ideologues are an interesting breed and are particularly visible in the blockchain and cryptocurrency spaces. They often believe in a libertarian world, yet take complete advantage of the countries in which they operate. Because of their accumulated wealth, they often have undue influence on the types of business areas, models, and projects that achieve dominance. While almost all claim to “want to make the world better for everyone,” it is unclear whom their actions benefit. The associated consequences are rarely considered. Nevertheless, their visions and energy should not be ignored but rather considered in the context of all the other important players.

The Super Rich Super-­rich technology entrepreneurs and other successful magnates have wealth, influence, and access to politicians and bureaucrats around the world, which give them significant and perhaps undue power. They are often not experts in the spaces they influence but because of their previous successes, they are often assumed experts in everything. Many are philanthropic and seek not only to invest in new technologies but to give away money, services, and technology to benefit specific groups or humanity as a whole. Although noble in principle, they are often unaware of negative consequences and can unintentionally be a catalyst for causing them. With the likelihood of many assets decreasing in value over time, the super-­rich could well see a significant decline in their wealth if they don’t focus on these frontier technologies and allocate meaningful resources to crucial, evolving areas. Nonetheless, they remain important and can be a helpful element in a multi-pronged effort to set the tone for the future.

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Influencers Influencers come in many different forms. The two most common are: • Experts (academic, industry, government, etc.) with a strong background and technical understanding of the underlying fundamentals. Their comments and pronouncements can have an immense impact on the thinking and direction of the space—­both positive and negative. However they often suffer from intense domain specialization creating echo chamber thinking. • Commentators/activists (traditional media, social media, celebrities, etc.), who can have an enormous following and level of credibility (deserved or not) with the general public. They have considerable and growing power to influence public sentiment, whether or not they have any expertise in a given topic or can differentiate the truth from fiction/lies. Properly channeled, both groups can be helpful in highlighting and drawing attention to technologies that have beneficial or potentially detrimental impacts.

The Military The military around the globe are among the biggest funders and users of frontier technologies and AI. They use them in active military operations as well as in the many organizational aspects necessary to run large bureaucracies. Many cutting-­edge areas that are (or will be) transformational to the private and public sectors get early and ongoing funding from the military. These include AI, quantum computing, blockchain, AR and VR, tokenization, robotics, additive manufacturing, and applications throughout aerospace, industry, energy, and medicine, among untold others. Many see the military

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solely as a potential threat; however, public/private/military joint ventures should be seen as a means of creating and accelerating interesting new technologies; GPS, Radar and even the Internet all originated from m ­ ilitary research and development. At the same time, no group in the world is more concerned with the dangers of powerful tools in the wrong hands. Strong and positive cooperation between the military and other areas of the public sector, as well as the private sector, is one of the most effective ways to moderate the “random” evolution of frontier technologies we are so concerned about.

Universities and Research Institutions Universities and research institutions are among the greatest beacons of hope. Not only do they house many who are responsible for the development of cutting-­edge technology, as organizations they are also often strong supporters of social advocacy. Being able to understand the issues, having fewer commercial or philosophical biases and fewer direct restrictions and regulations, makes them a potentially crucial element in the future direction of technology oversight.

Users Users are the most important constituent. They are all of us. As a collective, we have a lot of power, and we have every right—­and in some cases, an obligation—­to “just say no.”

Key Takeaways This chapter identified the tiny oligarchy of individuals who have disproportionate control over a broad range of powerful technologies. Not only will these people have a huge impact on the future, they already do:

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• Our list includes both those directly creating and operating these technologies and those in control of countries that seek to be dominant in them. Control of these technologies has major geopolitical implications. • The scariest aspect is that those who build and control these technologies are doing so with virtually no oversight; they are the unsupervised. • There are, however, constituencies which, acting independently or as a community, have the potential to act as an effective counterbalance. These include competitors, investors, governments, regulators, the military, supranational organizations, universities and research organizations, the press, and influencers. • The most powerful group are the users—­all of us—­as long as we use these technologies carefully and knowledgeably and take an active position on how they are used in general.

PART

III Final Thoughts

“People too smart to get involved in politics are doomed to live in societies run by people who aren’t.” —­Plato

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his final part closes with the book’s core theme—­if you have concerns, and by now you should, but choose not to act, don’t expect others to do so on your behalf. These technologies can bring amazing benefits, but they also raise many concerns. All of these issues merit considerable thought and engagement. Particularly important are the many new and challenging ethical issues stemming from these new technologies that this part also introduces.

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CHAPTER

14 Ethics and Policy “Pity those who don’t feel anything at all.” —­Sarah J. Maas

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thics comprise many individually and collectively massively complex disciplines that not only vary greatly depending on one’s location and personal perspectives, but are also subject to constant change for a host of different reasons. Technology, in all its forms, has always been particularly challenging to the status quo of ethical standards in any period and has kept executioners around the world rather busy over the millennia. Frontier technologies are already setting up to be among the greatest challenges in history to established standards around the world. As if to prove the point, Google has already fired two of its ethics researchers, and in April 2023, the Godfather of AI, Geoffrey Hinton, left the company warning of its dangers. Because the topic of ethics is so vast, not only is it hard to provide meaningful 329

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answers, but it is also even tough to be confident in the correct questions to ask. That said, the following are some thoughts.

What Are—­or Should Be—­the Dominant Laws of Frontier Technology? Here is a simple set of guidelines that could be globally accepted, all based on Asimov’s laws: • A technology may not harm humanity. • A technology may not injure a human being. • A technology must take orders from human beings. • A technology must protect its own existence. As simple as these might sound, they raise intractable issues about what is human, what is humanity, and which humans to obey.

Should/Can Technologies Be Built Not to Favor Certain People Over Others? The world is full of disparities—­always has been, always will be. Who gets bodyguards versus who is a bodyguard? Should diplomats have blanket immunity? Should bail be for only those who can afford it? With clear differentiations in place in every aspect of life, in every culture, it is hard to argue that computers should attempt to effect change. Even if they could, were their creators/ programmers without bias? Furthermore, even if the coding were possible, would implementation ever be accepted and take place?

How Should Systems Deal with Data Discrimination? Quantum computers will enable the management of enormous amounts of data, and AI can analyze the data using advanced

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pattern recognition and other sophisticated techniques. These are frequently used specifically to differentiate among both classes of people and specific individuals based on age, nationality, health, historical actions (e.g., criminal), etc. While these present enormous benefits for managing areas such as health, the implications in many other categories are far less appealing. Is it safe to assume all our governments will always be out to protect us and have our best interest at heart?

How Do We Deal with Mistakes When They Occur? Who Is Responsible? The Netflix docu-­drama The Social Dilemma was excellent at explaining some of the mistakes and ethical problems made by developers and creators in the early days of social networking. It didn’t, however, discuss who was or should be held to account. In looking at next-­generation technologies, where will responsibility lie when bad things happen—­with the creators of the technology or with the system itself if self-­coded, and what does that actually mean? For example, if one driverless car causes a fatality, should all others be taken off the road, and who would bear the costs?

How Do We Handle Combining Technology with Our Human Bodies and Minds? For centuries humans have changed the genomes of plants and animals through breeding and splicing. Integrating technologies with the human body and mind, either through technology-­ based upgrades or genome modification, has already started and is almost certain to accelerate. There are applications most would agree are beneficial, such as the treatment of debilitating and/or fatal diseases. However, the potential applications extend well beyond saving lives. They will certainly include extending life or

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simply enhancing a menu of “desirable” characteristics (e.g., appearance, strength, intellectual capacity, etc.). But where is the boundary, the line in the sand? What is it that defines humanity? Is it always subject to time and place? Will modifications be available only to those who can afford them or made available to all? Who gets to elect these changes? Who can make the decision for the incapable, for children, infants, or embryos (currently DNA editing of embryos is illegal in many countries; in others it is not). The issues that arise are diverse, contentious, and often intractable. Francois Baylis, a Canadian bioethicist, neatly framed the issue: “The genome belongs to us all. It’s something we have in common, and so we all have the right to have a say.”1 Yet Stephen Hawking reminds us that fairness rarely ends up being the guiding factor: “. . .some people won’t be able to resist the temptation to improve human characteristics.  .  .  . Once such superhumans appear, there are going to be major political problems with the unimproved humans. . . .”2

What Are the Complications and Considerations of Technology Becoming Semi and Fully Autonomous? This is a vast topic that already forms the basis of major articles and entire books. As robotics and systems continue to become integral to all aspects of our lives, an unending series of questions will arise on both a practical and ethical basis. We have discussed or touched on many areas where we expect an active debate—­we hope even more active once you put down this book and become involved. The following—although far from an exhaustive list—are 1 2

Baylis, Françoise. “Quotation Sign at Crick Institute, London.” London, England: Crick Institute, n.d. Ibid.

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particularly timely and important, and we list them alphabetically. The ethics revolve around issues such as bias, control, redress, proving fairness and robustness, role replacement, quality of inputs (together with who creates them, influences them, uses them), and what happens when a computer says “no:” • Accounting and financial reporting (all aspects). As more and more functions automate, what management control systems are necessary? Who are the systems designed to serve and/or protect? • Banking, financial services, investment management, trading. All these functions have an increasing set of systematic components. Will decreasing reliance on humans improve or worsen performance and control and the stability of the system overall? How are errors redressed, and will certain people end up permanently excluded from autonomous financial services? • Customer service/help desks. Most of these human functions have been moved either to low-­cost jurisdictions or to chatbots. Neither has proved ideal yet. The move to automation seems inevitable. What happens when people don’t get help? Will certain groups be disproportionately negatively impacted? • Education. How technologies are used or not used raises an enormous number of questions. Even more important, any ethical standards can be either initiated or reinforced in schools and universities. Which standards will technologies be programmed to teach? What happens when the systems begin to make choices independently? • Elections and referenda. This is clearly an area of potential controversy around the globe. Systems could help a lot. What happens when protections are breached? What are

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the trade-­offs, and are they worthwhile? How do we ensure and prove fairness and accountability? Can/should there be more direct voter input into policy making? • Governments. Governments are probably the largest employer in the world, with the greatest potential for systemic gain through the use of technology. Will leaders and bureaucrats use the power in the best interest of the people or themselves, and what does that actually mean? The pathway forward is ripe for debate. As systems become more powerful, where is the limit? Can the course ever be reversed, and if so, how and by whom? • Healthcare and medicine. As automation takes over more and more functions, vastly improving efficiency and capabilities while at the same time obscuring chains of responsibility, the entire field of medical ethics will become even more complex. • Human resources. Wouldn’t it be ironic if “human” resource functions were mostly carried out by machines? • Justice system. A large percentage of the system is process driven. Automation could alleviate significant bottlenecks and effectively take on many areas of social injustice. What are the consequences when decisions not made by humans turn out to be wrong? What happens if the biases of systems creators actually make things worse? • Logistics and delivery. This is currently an immense global employer that uses most forms of transportation. The issues are how to redeploy people and how to address the often-­ serious issues when the systems fail. What happens when systems use routes that negatively impact communities? • Military. They are and almost always have been at the forefront of technology. Nothing is likely to change this. Given

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the potentially dire consequences, what systems are used, how they are implemented, and who controls them is of unquantifiable importance. What happens when leaderships shift? What happens when civilian and military objectives diverge or collide? • Policing and monitoring. Since the rise of global and regional terrorism, the level of scrutiny by police and authorities has increased dramatically. Has technology increased or decreased effective security, and what are the implications for privacy and personal freedom? Is privacy even a right? How much personal freedom do we allow when computers become autonomous? • Process and general management. This occurs across every organization and is the source of much inefficiency and discontent. What happens when systems take over? How will policy be set and by whom/what? Will the vagaries of a manager seem preferable to systems recording every action of every WFH and WFA employee and those in the workplace as well? • Real estate, construction, sales, contracts, management. Every area in real estate has been increasing its use of technology, albeit slowly. For an area with historic opacity, how will more clarity and efficiency impact existing ethical issues? • Regulation. Up until this point regulators across many domains have been forced into playing catchup with better funded and more motivated organizations. AI could narrow the gap. How much control is appropriate for humans to cede? • Self-­ driving cars and other forms of transportation. Constituencies around the world are already trying to figure out the practicalities and legal and social implications. Consensus is but a distant concept.

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A Computer’s View of Computer Ethics by ChatGPT Given the debate on the current usefulness to the general public of AI, on March 14, 2023, as soon as it was released, we asked ChatGPT an important question on ethics. The following question and answer are entirely unedited: Question to ChatGPT: Acting like an ethics expert, from society’s perspective, what are the primary ethical questions that need to be debated before broad-­scale adoption of AI systems to manage human processes? ChatGPT response: As an ethics expert, I would suggest that there are several key ethical questions that society must consider before adopting AI systems to manage human processes on a broad scale. These include, but are not limited to: • Privacy and data protection: How can we ensure that AI systems respect individuals’ privacy rights and protect their sensitive information? What measures should be in place to prevent unauthorized access, data misuse, or data breaches? • Fairness and bias: How can we guarantee that AI systems treat all individuals fairly and without discrimination? What steps should be taken to minimize biases in AI algorithms that may result from biased training data or inadvertent algorithmic biases? • Transparency and explainability: How can we ensure that AI systems are transparent and can explain their decision-making processes to users? What level of transparency should be required, and how can we strike the right balance between protecting proprietary information and providing users with enough information to understand AI decisions? • Accountability and responsibility: Who should be held accountable for the actions and decisions made by AI

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systems? How can we establish a clear chain of responsibility for AI-driven processes? • Impact on jobs and employment: How will the adoption of AI systems affect employment, job displacement, and income inequality? What measures should be taken to support workers whose jobs are transformed or eliminated due to AI adoption? • Human-AI interaction: How can we ensure that AI systems augment and support human decision-making rather than replace it? How can we maintain a balance between relying on AI systems and preserving human agency and intuition? • Safety and security: What steps should be taken to ensure the safety and security of AI systems, including preventing adversarial attacks, ensuring robustness, and avoiding unintended harmful consequences? • Access and digital divide: How can we ensure that the benefits of AI technologies are accessible to everyone, regardless of socio-economic status or geographic location? How can we address the potential widening of the digital divide caused by unequal access to AI systems? • Long-term impact on humanity: What are the potential long-term consequences of widespread AI adoption for society, culture, and human values? How can we ensure that AI systems are developed and deployed in a way that is aligned with our long-term interests and values? • Global governance and regulation: How should AI systems be regulated at a national and international level? What global standards and frameworks should be developed to address the ethical challenges posed by AI technologies? These questions should be thoroughly debated by a diverse group of stakeholders, including policymakers, AI developers, ethicists, and members of the public, to ensure that AI systems are developed and deployed responsibly and for the greater good of society.

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When Can Technologies Be Defined to Have Consciousness and, at That Point, Should They Be Afforded Rights? We have left this to last for obvious reasons. It is an unknown on an unknown. Neuroscientists and technologists are already trying to emulate the various functions of our minds and embody them in various systems. As they improve and advance and as we teach them more about decision-­making and morals, at some point, do they need to be protected too? At what point will it be considered wrong to turn off a seemingly sentient AI system? At that point, will it also be considered wrong to have it obey commands and not have any free will at all? Will it be wrong to send them into dangerous situations? What will happen if these technologies have more intelligence and empathy than animals, when we already provide animals rights? Are these systems considered to be able to feel pain, and how do we tell?

Conclusion While ethics is an entire topic for a book on its own and by definition very subjective, the ethical questions in this chapter represent the type of challenging issues that require active debate. There are not necessarily any absolute answers, and there are many other questions, but because the issues are so important, having a multiplicity of diverse inputs is crucial. What makes this even more difficult is that rapid changes in capability mean that an answer to a specific question one day may no longer be valid the next. We understand the concept of “fluid ethics” should be an oxymoron; however, with inputs and outputs changing at an unprecedented rate, paradigmatic shifts will not be the exception, but rather become the rule. New paradigms demand new sets of rules.

CHAPTER

15 Conclusion “We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it.” —­George Orwell

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f a problem is simple, don’t complicate it. If it is complicated, don’t simplify it. Although there will be many discrete issues that are simple and can be handled clearly and effectively, most topics explored in this book are multifaceted. Few are likely to have a single, clearly defined solution. Many factors interact. At times none of the potential outcomes might appear particularly attractive. Last, and perhaps most important, the target is always moving. There are unlikely to be any optimal solutions, given the number of actors and the array of divergent opinions. Sometimes the least awful option is the best that can be achieved. After all, avoiding disasters is better than ignoring them and living through the consequences. 339

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A Common Set of Tenets This book has addressed many major issues and provided some context and examples. Although the areas are quite different, they often overlap and have a common set of underlying tenets: • Data and knowledge will be a key means of exchange. • Creativity and empathy are the most important human assets. • We must create an environment in which advocacy, criticism, and mistakes are all tolerated. Only through a combination of failure and success can we expect to build a better future. And we must understand that new technologies are here to stay—­we are already dependent on them, our future is dependent on them, and solving our key challenges will depend on them.

Productivity We must redefine—­or simply define—­productivity. Since 2008, published statistics indicate a slowing productivity growth in post-­industrial nations. This is hard to believe since technological advancements have accelerated over the same period. And money keeps pouring at an ever increasing rate into the next generation of technology disruptors. At the same time, health has improved, historically an important component of productivity. Something else must be going on, but what? Four possibilities come to mind: • Inadequate measurement systems. How does one value low-­ probability outcomes with exponential upside? For example, better understanding the universe and sending out

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spaceships to explore might have no short-­term returns, yet it might save the future of humanity. • Parkinson’s law. “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” Having more technology might have freed up time, but this liberated time might not have been used effectively. • The government and service economies. Many of the new jobs are in the service sector, and many of them are in professional services and government bureaucracies. Perhaps measurable productivity in these areas has, in fact, declined. As discussed elsewhere, many of these jobs are likely to be largely/fully replaced by computers within a generation. • Productivity just appears to be stagnant. Think of a balloon filling with water. There are four stages. During the first, the form does not expand as the water merely fills the deflated shape. The second is the fast-­expanding stage as water pushes out the elastic edge. During the third, the change in form slows, almost becoming static, as the balloon has no further room to expand—­the water pressure simply increases. Finally, the balloon bursts as the volume and pressure of water are too great to hold. Perhaps with frontier technologies productivity is now in the third, pre-­bursting phase. If we are soon to enter stage 4, what are the actual implications?

Constraints Even if productivity can be better measured and understood, there will always be basic impediments that almost guarantee

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suboptimal results. Innovation, although necessary and inevitable, is (and will continue to be) constrained by several of the following factors: • Resistance to disruption. People really don’t like change, particularly fast-­ moving change. Individuals, companies, groups, and societies tend to treat change with concern and will just ignore it or even work to prevent it. This limits efficient and widespread adoption of these new frontier technologies. Unfortunately, this leaves the real power in the hands of those creating the technology and the small number who adapt and adopt early. • Absence of expertise. Education systems around the world still reflect the values propounded during the Industrial Revolution. So far, relatively few people are trained and involved in the technologies underpinning the cognitive revolution. This again concentrates the power of these technologies in the hands of a small number of random early adopters, technologists, and academics, and limits the oversight of their development. • Incompatible financing model. Because of historic precedent and regulations limiting speculative investment, the existing model for financing early-­stage technology companies is concentrated among a limited number of experienced venture capitalists, who are generally hands-­off, have a narrow set of financial goals, and operate in a limited number of global centers. More recently, there has been growth in crowdfunded efforts, but these are often scattershot, with investors generally not engaged in the development process. This could lead to fewer entrepreneurs accessing capital and less guidance and control for those who do get funded.

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This model limits competition and increases the power of the few companies that are already successful, no matter how damaging their products and/or services might have become. New funding approaches should be a top priority. • Luddism. As frontier technologies start to noticeably impact people’s lives, take over their jobs, change society, and potentially shift power distribution, it is possible we will see a backlash in the form of renewed distrust in technology. This could lead to a reaction against the technology itself and finally a lurch toward luddism. In 1830, as the Industrial Revolution gained pace in the United Kingdom, workers started to protest over transformations in their workplaces, and the whole country descended into the Swing Riots. In response to farmers installing new threshing machines, which saved labor by a factor of 5 to 10 times, farm laborers began destroying those machines and burning down barns. Much more recently, the mere launch of advertisements for a consulting contract to explore driverless trains in the London Underground caused the rail workers’ union to threaten industrial action. The union called it a waste of money and pledged to fight it with every tool at their disposal. Similarly, ChatGPT’s recent latest release received immediate calls to ban it—­little different from the Luddites 200 years ago.

The Cognitive Revolution The pace at which technology today foments change is beyond anything humanity has ever confronted. Our world is now entering a period of true innovation Darwinism, the Cognitive Revolution, as companies and industries quickly adapt or die. Or, to paraphrase Thomas Friedman, in the long run, nature only

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rewards the adaptive, not the richest, smartest, or strongest.1 There are three phases of change and adoption: • Variation. We are in full swing, with major companies using frontier technology to better access existing customers and main­tain market dominance for existing products and services. • Transformation. Still in its incipient stages, fast-­growing early-­stage companies are innovating, taking advantage of new frontier technological advances to completely transform products and many industries as well. • Disruption. Likely pushed by small teams, building on the knowledge of the previous variation and transformation stages, they will create new paradigms that have the power to displace entire industries. It is impossible even to imagine where these will come from or what they will look like. If one could, then they would merely be evolutionary, and not disruptive.

Embracing Technology While it might be considered a benefit that technological advances should be gradual, this is unfortunately not realistic. Efforts to significantly slow their advance are more likely to result in their being deployed asymmetrically and with less planning. It is important to embrace technology in a thoughtful way. At the same time, we must not be afraid to challenge or even have contentious views. The following overarching questions remain: • How do we provide a living to those who will inevitably be displaced? 1 “Thomas L. Friedman: An Interview with Mother Nature,” McKinsey & Company, March 15, 2019, www .mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-­i nsights/thomas-­l -­f riedman-­a n-­i nterview-­w ith-­m other­nature.

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• How will we deal with the large amounts of spare time frontier technologies will give us? • How do we adapt to a population that can live longer? • What do we do now to prepare?

Action Is More Important Than Reaction Despite significant commentary in all forms of media, it doesn’t appear most of us understand the urgency. At this point, the real ability to control the future of technology is concentrated in a few hands. And because the new paradigm is exponential rather than linear, their power grows faster than any of us can imagine. Like all incumbents before them, they won’t cede power without resistance. Leaving them unsupervised to determine the future of humanity does not seem an enlightened approach.

Freedom to Challenge Free speech and free debate are vital for innovation, and limiting or skewing information can have significant undesirable consequences. The current trend is not pretty; many in both the public and private sectors in nations around the world, are fighting at unprecedented rates to own and control the message. Social media and new forms of technology make diluting, distorting, or denying the truth much easier and the tactical and strategic placing/delivering of messages frighteningly effective. Today, a clear, well-­delivered message is far more powerful than an accurate one. The truth risks becoming an endangered species, as does faith in our global systems, institutions, and those who lead them.

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Emotions Are Central to Humanity Fear can alert us to danger, empathy can allow us to form bonds, and guilt can temper our instinct to harm others. These and many other emotions are the basis for communities, and our reactions to them are central to survival. As computers become more sophisticated, the day they can be programmed effectively with emotions and empathy is not far away. That is not inherently bad; however, it does raise many questions about individuality, control, and overall consequences. Perhaps empathy is a good tool for a computer; but what about fear, anger, and greed? What happens when computers’ interests conflict with those of the humans who control them? What happens when humans don’t actually control them?

Data Is at the Heart of Everything Both the public and private sectors have always collected data. Much is necessary for them to function. However, no matter how good the motivations, once collected, the data is out there permanently. Future administrations might choose to use it differently or even sell it to those who will. And it is not just future administrations. For example, in 2021, the UK National Health Service announced a plan to sell massive amounts of data on 55 million citizens to any bidder paying enough. That plan has been forestalled, but it is concerning this can happen in the heart of democracy, instead of in one of the world’s many kleptocracies. Equally concerning is the high probability of that data being hacked. Before frontier technologies, this kind of data might have had limited functional value; its scale was impossible to manage. But current AI can effectively assemble, sort, analyze, and store vast amounts of data that can now be used, not just in aggregate but to affect you personally. This is already happening and with minimal debate, public consultation, oversight, or even judicial review. The dangers are not insignificant.

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The Dangers of Anonymity and Distance A few years back, the Chief Rabbi of the UK, Lord Sacks, gave a speech regarding what we refer to as “The Joseph Principle.” It was a sermon about social networks and the viciousness of many posts. The premise was that Joseph’s brothers sold him into slavery when he was not present to object or make his feelings about it known. The story implies that had he been there in person, they would never have been able to carry out such a heinous act. The story shows that when you are not physically with someone or not emotionally engaged with them, you might behave far worse than if they were present or if you cared about them. The same can be said for social media, where engagement is often with people you do not know. When you see a message or a post, your reaction reflects your frame of mind, not necessarily that of its originator. Not seeing the person, hearing the tone, or gauging the body language makes things even worse. And all these technologies are specifically trained to identify it and use it for their benefit, not yours.

Digitization Digitizing many functions in government, corporations, and the service sector is very much on target, in terms of cost, efficiency, and even effectiveness. And there is little doubt it will be an important management and operational tool going forward. The issue is that neither the underlying technologies nor the ability to manage them is, as yet, sufficiently evolved. The current model of releasing software that has not been rigorously tested and constantly releasing patches to speed up the cycle and gain market share might work and even be acceptable in noncritical areas; however, ceding control to computers over large parts of businesses represents significant risks. The world is not quite there yet. But with the appropriate support and oversight, it soon might be.

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Being Human Finally, we cannot dismiss the reality that technology is allowing medical procedures that directly challenge what it means to be human. We are implanting devices that can cure and protect us, as well as others that actually enhance us. Couple that with the ability to change genetics and the implications are enormous. Whether you consider this good or bad depends on where you stand. Regardless, the direction the world is heading is clear.

Safeguarding Society As much as greeting the future needs to be a collective effort in which we all contribute, certain groups directly bear a disproportionate amount of the responsibility to establish and safeguard how societies around the globe develop and use frontier technologies. It is absolutely vital they are active, committed, and vocal. The world will be a better place if they not only work independently, but understand how important cooperating can be. At the end of Part II, we discussed constituencies with disproportionate power—­for better or worse. We consider it important to reiterate those whose power and thought, if used collectively, are vital to setting up frameworks that can help establish an equilibrium—­no matter how fragile it might be. They will also be needed going forward to help effect changes that maintain that equilibrium as circumstances change: • Researchers, mathematicians, scientists, engineers, and programmers. These people make up the engine driving the entire process. • Entrepreneurs. These are the galvanizing forces that enable great ideas to come to fruition or that errantly force them into the landfill of history.

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• Investors. Not only do they provide the capital necessary to transition ideas into reality, but they are also best positioned to ensure the proper evolution of the technologies and companies they support. • The public sector. Public-­sector involvement is a crucial element in helping technologies emerge and grow: ◦◦ Providing the framework for capital for new technologies. ◦◦ Supporting research and development. ◦◦ Protecting the intellectual property generated. ◦◦ Creating the infrastructure and regulations to support or constrain behaviors they determine positive or negative. • The military. They have huge budgets dedicated to evolving technologies that create an offensive edge; equally huge budgets are spent on defense. Many key long-­term private sector solutions originate in the military. We expect this to be the case with problems such as hacking, crippling infrastructure, misinformation, deep fakes, etc. • Media. Whether influencing adoption of technologies, revealing risks, or highlighting conflicts, the media will always be crucial. Ironically, the media are also often at the cutting edge of the development and use of technology. • Supranational organizations. Notoriously ineffective, political, and corrupt, these organizations are probably the most important venue for exploring “informal” solutions among highly disparate interest groups. • Academics and educators. These are the primary channels through which future generations learn about technology, how to use it, and how to create it. • Users. Last, but in our opinion most important, are users (aka all of us). By far the largest group, we represent a multiplicity of often important viewpoints. Although frequently fragmented, in today’s world of social media, we know how to make our voices heard.

CHAPTER

16 Final Word “They always say time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself.” —­Andy Warhol

A

common misunderstanding that impacts our forecasting and future planning for frontier technologies is that computers need to mirror what humans do—­perfectly and with real understanding. However, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing it’s a failure. The majority of leaders and thinkers who guide our policy and outlook argue that artificial intelligence, and more broadly frontier technologies, will never match humans because they will never fully master human skills nor the human spirit. Yet that is not the point. Understanding the differences and how to work together is. As part of a global community, it is important to develop technologies responsibly and inclusively. We might almost consider them as our collective children—­we create them, train 351

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them, bring them up, and then let them go, hoping they will look after us as we get old. As Oscar Wilde once said, “Children begin by loving their parents; as they grow older, they judge them; rarely, if ever, do they forgive them.” The purpose of this book has been to share and explain information, as well as provide some context on a broad array of rapidly evolving technologies. We have delved into areas where the implications, especially when combined, are both important and time-critical. These technologies are positioned to deliver extraordinary benefits; however, we have also directed a spotlight on an almost inconceivably powerful oligarchy who understand and disproportionately control these technologies, and we have highlighted some of the dangers specific sectors and society as a whole face as a result. It would not be unreasonable for you to expect a concise set of concluding opinions. Unfortunately, that would run completely counter to our goals and the entire underlying approach throughout. We have tried, wherever possible, to limit direct and specific opinions of our own. Not because we don’t have them. Those who know us are more than aware that we are not shy, nor shy with our opinions. In this case, however, our goal has been to raise awareness and knowledge and, we hope without too much presumption, to urge action. There are areas in which we might have particular expertise, but overall, our opinions are no more valid and certainly no more important than yours. We have put considerable effort into opening the door; we hope many of you now choose to walk through it. As much as greeting the future needs to be a collective effort in which we all contribute, certain groups (all discussed in the book) have the potential to exert the most influence from the top-­down. These include researchers, academics, scientists, engineers, programmers, educators, entrepreneurs, investors, the media (and influencers in general), regulators, supranational

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organizations, and the military. In the end, however, it is all of us—­as the users—­who collectively have the greatest insights and diversity of opinion and experience and who wield the most aggregate power. Alone, you might not be able to regulate Big Tech; however, if you are concerned about the power and influence of certain technologies, why not become a member of your children’s school board (or simply meet the head teacher) to help develop curricula that set the tone for your children’s and grandchildren’s education? One person alone has limited influence; thousands or millions, working together or simply in parallel, have extraordinary power. As swarm theory posits, large decisions need not be directed only from above; they can also result from the small actions of many. As Laozi said, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” This book is ours.

About the Authors

Daniel Doll-­Steinberg: An investor in the applications of powerful emerging technologies, Daniel believes these technologies are transforming our world—­and our place in it. Daniel champions our collective responsibility in shaping our societal, financial, and environmental future, and has lectured at University College London, Wharton Business School and WIPO. Starting his career in London and New York in the early days of the global derivatives technology industry, Daniel created one of the first digital rights management businesses, which helped transform the software and entertainment industries. In 2016, he was introduced to Blockchain and saw it accelerating AI in remodelling our economy. He co-founded the Atari Token Project to build a metaverse-­based new economy platform with Atari, an Ethereum founder, and several gaming legends. He is a founding partner at active innovation fund EdenBase. Daniel was appointed an expert advising both the UK Government and European Commission, including during the crucial period following the 2007 financial crash, specializing in disruption, education, and the future of work. Stuart Leaf: After working on Wall Street, in 1994 Stuart founded Cadogan Management, a fund of hedge funds with offices in New  York, London, Tokyo, and San Francisco. The firm invested in many strategies with a significant exposure to 355

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technology. For a decade, he wrote a well-­followed monthly newsletter, with global distribution covering a broad range of topics on investing and well beyond. Born in New York, Stuart grew up in Brussels and London, returning to the U.S. to Stanford University, where he earned a BA in Economics and French, an MA in French Literature, and an MBA. Apart from his engagement in the financial markets, his passions have long included food, wine, and travel about which he has written a number of guides. Co-­authoring this book on frontier technologies stemmed from his long-­standing friendship with Daniel Doll-­Steinberg. Daniel opened his eyes to the importance and inevitable impact these will have on every aspect of the global economy, social systems, and humanity itself. Discovering how few people were truly aware of the massive disruption under way, Stuart saw a clear need to increase awareness and engagement in order to help forge a more considered and balanced future.

Index

A

Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (Diamandis), 312 access, computer ethics and, 337 accountability, computer ethics and, 336 accounting accountants, 104 autonomous technology and, 333 job losses in, 177 acknowledging technology, 200 action, reaction compared with, 345 Activision Blizzard, 306 activists, 323 adaptability, as a human characteristic, 265 additive manufacturing (AM) about, 83–86 advances in, 151 for health/medicine, 124 online technologies for, 188 Adidas, 256 Adobe Firefly, 20 advanced communications. See communications Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), 305 advertising companies, 104 The Age of AI: And Our Human Future (Schmidt), 314 aggregation, of data, 212 AGI (artificial general intelligence), 9 agriculture air pollution and, 250 job losses in, 176 AI. See artificial intelligence (AI) AI effect, 10 air as a resource, 250–251 role of technology in, 261 Alexa, 3, 8 algorithmic complexity, quantum computing and, 25 Alphabet, 19 Altman, Samuel (cofounder of OpenAI), 301–302, 303

altruism, as a human characteristic, 266 always-­on communications (5G), for health/ medicine, 122–123 always-­on technology, 35 AM. See additive manufacturing (AM) Amaka, 315–316 Amara’s Law, 78, 279–280 Amazon, 3, 185, 306–307 AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), 305 Andreesen, Marc (Cofounder of Netscape), 314 Andreesen Horowitz, 314 anonymity, dangers of, 347 Anthropic Claude, 19 anti-­money laundering (AML), 63 antitrust laws, 209 Apple Inc., 71, 311 Apple Watch, 270 application programming interfaces (APIs), 304–305 applications, Internet of Things (IoT) and, 86 AR. See augmented reality (AR) architecture augmented reality (AR) and, 93 physical real estate and, 154 art, additive manufacturing for, 84 artificial general intelligence (AGI), 9 artificial intelligence (AI) about, 8 approaches to, 9–12 categories of, 8–9 evolution of, 199 foundation models, 17–18 GPT, 12–17 for health/medicine, 121–122 key players, 18–21 virtual reality (VR) and, 90 artificial super intelligence (ASI), 9 Asimov, Isaac, 239 asset tokenization, 149–150 asset tokens, 60–61 attention economy, 234–237 attorneys, 104

357

358 augmented reality (AR) about, 91–93, 95 for health/medicine, 124–125 automation, industrial, 81–82 autonomous technology, 332–335 autonomous weapons systems, 243 avatars, 166–169, 204

B

Ballmer, Steve (entrepreneur), 306 Bankers Trust, 306 banking about, 141–144 asset tokenization, 149–150 autonomous technology and, 333 programmable money and assets, 145–146 self-­custodying, 146–149 self-­driving banks, 149 Bankman-­Fried, Sam (entrepreneur), 19 Bard/LaMDA (Google/Alphabet), 19 batteries, 112 Baylis, Francoise (philosopher), 332 bed blocking, 271 Bedrock, 307 behavior, 221–223 The Behavioral Insights Team (Nudge Unit), 238 Bell, Alexander Graham (inventor), 31 Benioff, Marc (CEO), 307–308 Bezos, Jeff (Chairman of Amazon), 306–307 Bezos, Mackenzie (philanthropist), 315 bias about, 218–220 computer ethics and, 336 Big Tech, 239, 246 Binance, 236, 309–310 Bing (Microsoft), 18–19 biodigital convergence, 116–119 bioeconomy, 116–119 “The Bioeconomy to 2030” paper, 117 bio-­machines, 273–274 Bitcoin (BTC) about, 45, 47, 48, 66–67, 310 future of, 72–73 mining, 51 structure of, 68 systemic constraints, 68–69 user constraints, 69–71 Bitcoin Cash, 52 blockchain about, 43, 44–45, 74 categories of, 45–47 51 percent attacks, 52 forking, 52 future of, 53 for health/medicine, 123 mechanisms of, 48–53 mining, 51

Index operating protocols for, 74–75 proof of assignment, 48, 50 proof of stake, 48, 49–50 proof of work, 48, 49 real estate on the, 155–156 Bloomberg, Michael (businessman), 309, 315 bond tokens, 59–60 books, 283–284 Boring Company, 300–301 bots, 4 brands, 104 broadband, 34–35 Brockman, Greg (researcher), 303 BTC. See Bitcoin (BTC) Buffet, Warren (entrepreneur), 315 building automation, Internet of Things (IoT) and, 86–87 bureaucracies decreasing, 270 job losses in, 178 business, air pollution and, 251 Buterin, Vitaly (“Vitalik”) (Cofounder of Ethereum), 310 ByteDance, 299

C

cable entertainment, 162–163 Cambridge Analytica, 238 Cameron, David (Prime Minister), 238 Cap Gemini, 89 carbon-­based production, 251 Carmat, 128 cash, as a benefit of gig economy, 189 CCTV, 231–232 cellular communication, 33, 34–35 cellular entertainment, 162–163 centers of innovation, future, 287–289 central bank digital currency (CBIDC), 145 Central Military Commission, 299 centralized governments and dictatorships, 321 CGI (computer-­generated imagery), 160 challenge, freedom to, 345 change and adoption, 344 Changpeng Zhao (CZ) (CEO), 236, 309–310 chatbots, evolution of, 199 ChatGPT about, 8, 15, 17, 19–20, 30, 199, 206, 217, 219, 258, 284, 287, 293, 302–303, 305–306, 343 computer’s view of computer ethics by, 336–337 OpenAI platform, 10 release of, 13 China government-­focused central policy planning in, 287 technology in, 293 Chinese Communist Party, 223, 300 Citibank, 99

Index Clarke, Arthur C. (author), 257 Claude (Anthropic), 19 Cloud companies, 103, 104, 281 cloud-­based computing, 284 cloud-­based data storage, 35 clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR), 118, 131, 276 “code is king” model, 43 Codex, 17 coding, job losses in, 177 cognitive dematerialization, 284–287 Cognitive Revolution, 1–2, 27, 44, 78, 164, 295–296, 343–344 Colonial Pipeline, 241 colonization, job gains in, 180–181 combustion engines, air pollution and, 250 commentators, 323 commercial applications, for robotics, 80–81 commercial sector, technology and, 116 communication about, 30–31, 224–225 advanced, 30–39 behavior, 221–223 biases, 218–220 cellular, 34–35 companies for, 104 control of, by government, 244 controlling measurement, 211–214 data overload, 215 deep data, 221–223 echo chamber mentality, 218–220 fact checking, 216–218 fake news, 215–216 freedom of expression, 218–220 future of, 35–37 online technologies for infrastructure, 187 power of, 207–211 privacy, 221–223 satellite, 37–39 tracking, 221–223 virtual influencers, 220–221 wired, 32–33 wireless, 33 community engagement, 291 community preservation, work and, 192 companies, 104 competition, for technology executives, 319 compressed air, 112 computer ethics, computer’s view of, 336–337 computer gaming about, 282 job gains in, 180 computer-­generated imagery (CGI), 160 concentrated solar power (CSP), 107–108 conceptual bucket, for GPT, 13 conferencing technology, 203–204 connectionist AI, 10 consensus algorithm, 48

359 constraints, 341–343 construction additive manufacturing for, 85 autonomous technology and, 335 physical real estate and, 154–155 consumer capitalism, 170, 172–173 consumer-­facing hardware deployments, of foundational technologies, 5 consumer-­facing hardware technologies about, 77–78, 94–95 augmented reality (AR), 91–93 Internet of Things (IoT), 86–88 robotics, 79–86 virtual reality (VR), 88–91 content creation, 160–161 content delivery, 161 content ownership, 163 contracts, autonomous technology and, 335 control about, 246 attention economy, 234–237 cyberattacks and ransomware, 229–231 of data by government, 244 deep fakes, 234–237 of education by government, 245 of financial system by government, 244–245 government use of technology, 244–245 of health access by government, 245 incentives, 237–239 of legal documents, 291 measurement of, 211–214, 224 of media and communication by government, 244 of media and messages, 232–234 military, 240–243 monitoring, 231–232 of movement by government, 245 nudge theory, 237–239 of population by government, 245 predicting and influencing the future, 239–240 response triggering, 234–237 security, privacy, and fraud, 227–229 Cook, Tim (CEO), 311 cookies, 235–236 corporates, inflation and, 213 costs, as a benefit of gig economy, 189 COVID-­19 pandemic city rejuvenation after, 258 contact tracing during, 222 isolation from, 236 monitoring and, 232 creativity encouraging and nurturing, 201 as a human characteristic, 265–266 Credit Suisse, 236 Crick, Francis (biologist), 131

360 CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats), 118, 131, 276 CRM (customer relationship management), 307 cryptocurrency about, 66–67, 75, 236 future of, 72–73 other, 71–72 structure of, 68 systemic constraints, 68–69 user constraints, 69–71 Cryptocurrency 2.0, 73 cryptocurrency exchanges, 102–103 cryptocurrency whales, 72 cryptographic process, 214 CSP (concentrated solar power), 107–108 cultural homogenization, as a human characteristic, 265 currency tokens, 61 current bucket, for GPT, 13 customer relationship management (CRM), 307 customer service, autonomous technology and, 333 customization, of data, 212–213 cyber convergence, 127–128 cyberattacks, 229–231

D

daily online activities, technologies for, 3–4 DALL-­E 2, 8, 17 DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations), 54–56, 75 Dark Web, as a category of information, 28–29 Darwin, Charles (naturalist), 296 Darwinism, 343 data aggregation of, 212 collection of, 2–3, 208 computer ethics and protection of, 336 customization of, 212–213 government control of, 244 harvesting, 221 as the heart of everything, 346 security of, 246 sources for, 27–30 technologies for managing, 4 technologies for storage of, 2–3 technologies for using, 4 tokens for assuring and securing, 59 data discrimination, 330–331 data overload, 215 data power, for research and development, 267–268 Decentraland, 102, 103 decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), 54–56, 75 decentralized finance (DeFi), 143, 144, 149 decentralized 3D Web, 100

Index decoherence, 25 deep data, 221–223 deep fakes, 234–237 deep learning (DL), 14 Deep Mind Sparrow, 19 Deep Web, as a category of information, 28 DeepMind, 301, 303–304 defense, by government, 245 delivery, autonomous technology and, 334 dematerialization cognitive, 284–287 physical, 283–284 democratic governments, 320–321 democratization, of social media, 215 demographics, role of technology in, 260 design augmented reality (AR) and, 93 physical real estate and, 154 of products, 255 deterministic approach about, 24 to AI, 9 D.F. Shaw, 306 Diamandis, Peter (founder of Singularity University), 312–313 Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think, 312 dictatorships, centralized, 321 digital assets, 60–61 digital divide, computer ethics and, 337 digital mediums, real-­world ownership of, 60 digital therapeutics, virtual and augmented reality for, 125 digital twins, 98 digital voting machine, 55 digital weaponry, 259 digitization about, 347 of healthcare, 266–271 of human senses, 126–127 disruption in change and adoption, 344 impact and implications on humanity of, 137–139 resistance to, 342 distance, dangers of, 347 Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), 44 diversity, as a human characteristic, 264–265 DL (deep learning), 14 DNA, 276 documentation, physical real estate and, 155 drilling, air pollution and, 250 driverless medical transports, 271 drug discovery, 268 Duke Initiative for Science and Society, 275

E

early child development, 202 echo chamber mentality, 218–220

361

Index economic constraints, 193–194 economy about, 169–170 energy, 156–159 entertainment, 160–163 gaming, 164 government operation, 245 manufacturing and production, 150–153 metaverse, 164–169 money, banking, spending, and future of financing, 141–150 physical real estate, 153–156 reinventing the, 141–170 education about, 197–201, 206 academics, 349 additive manufacturing for, 84 augmented reality (AR) and, 92 autonomous technology and, 333 early child development, 202 of educators, 201 effect of technology on structure and implementation of, 202–205 effect of technology on structure and implementation of education, 202–205 elementary school, 202 government control of, 245 job gains in, 179 job losses in, 177 online technologies for, 187 secondary school, 203–204 university, 204–205 educators about, 349 educating, 201 efficiency improvements in, 173 increasing with energy, 156–157 eldercare Internet of Things (IoT) and, 87 job gains in, 179–180 elections autonomous technology and, 333–334 data for, 214 elementary school, 202 embracing technology, 200 emotions, as central to humanity, 346 employment, computer ethics and, 337 enabling technologies about, 5, 43, 74–75 bitcoin and cryptocurrency, 66–73 blockchain, 44–47 blockchain mechanisms, 48–53 decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), 54–56 smart contracts, 53–54 tokenization, 57–66

energy about, 135, 156–158 additive manufacturing for, 85 energy companies, 104 importance of, 170 Internet of Things (IoT) and management of, 87 longer-­term behavioral change, 158–159 physical real estate and consumption of, 155 prices for, 158 as a resource, 251–253 role of technology in, 261 storage of, 111–113 sustainable, 154 technology uses for, 104–105 transmission and distribution of, 113–114 engineering constraints, quantum computing and, 25 engineers, 348 entertainment sector about, 160, 170 cable/satellite/cellular, 162–163 content creation, 160–161 content delivery, 161 content ownership, 163 live performance, 162 movies, 161 traditional television/radio, 162 virtual, 163 entrepreneurs, 348 environment, energy and improving, 158 Epic Games, 102, 313–314 equity tokens, 59–60 Ethereum (ETH), 45, 47, 48, 70–71, 72–73, 310 ethics, policy and, 329–338 EU Commissioners, 321 experiential-­based learning, 55 expertise, absence of, 342 experts, 323 explainability, computer ethics and, 336

F

Facebook, 3, 102, 297–298, 301–302 fact checking, 216–218 factoring, 56 fairness, computer ethics and, 336 fake news, 215–216 family preservation, work and, 192 Farahany, Nita (author), 275–276 fear sells, 216 Federal Security Service (FSB), 308–309 FedEx, 185 51 percent attacks, 52 finances autonomous technology and reporting of, 333

362 finances (continued) financial instrument (security/equity/bond) tokens, 59–60 future of, 141–144 government system control, 244–245 incompatibility of financial model, 342–343 physical real estate and, 155 financial services autonomous technology and, 333 job losses in, 177 Fintech, online technologies for, 187–188 Firefly (Adobe), 20 First Republic, 236 first wave, 9 5G Multiband, 36–37 5G networks, 35, 284 fixed automation, 82 flexibility, as a benefit of gig economy, 188, 189 flexible automation, 82 Flow, 102–103 flywheels, 113 food as a resource, 248–249 role of technology in, 260 forking, 52 Fortnite, 102 fossil fuels, 110, 250 foundation models, AI, 17–18 foundational technologies about, 5, 7, 39–41 advanced communications, 30–39 artificial intelligence (AI), 8–21 quantum computing, 21–27 sources of data, 27–30 Founders Fund, 301–302 4Chan, 20 4D printing, 83–86, 95 4G networks, 35 fractional ownership, in tokenization, 64 fraud control, 227–229 freedom of expression, 218–220 freedom to challenge, 345 frequency, for voting, 214 Friedman, Thomas (commentator), 343–344 frontier research, technology-­enabled fields of, 121–125 frontier technologies about, 194–195 blending with humanity, 272–275 dominant laws of, 330 and the human body, 125–132 investing in, 290–292 key constituencies influencing future, 317–324 key influencers on, 295–325 in military, 240–243 monitoring, 235–236 supremacy in, 243

Index in up-­front design and planning of the grid, 114 FSB (Federal Security Service), 308–309 FTX, 19, 70, 71, 236 funding, for democratic governments, 320 fungible tokens, 58 Fusion Systems, 309 future, predicting and influencing, 239–240

G

G7 countries, 195 game developers, 103 GameStop, 236 gaming about, 164, 170 augmented reality (AR) and, 93 GAN (generative adversarial network), 15 garbage in, garbage out (GIGO), 27 Gartner’s Hype Cycle, 102 Gates, Bill (cofounder of Microsoft), 315 gathering, job gains in, 181 General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), 321 general health monitoring, Internet of Things (IoT) and, 87 general management, autonomous technology and, 335 generative adversarial network (GAN), 15 generative systems, 14 genetic engineering, 126, 130–132 geothermal energy, 109, 252 Germany, 280 gig economy, as a key sector, 188–189 GIGO (garbage in, garbage out), 27 GitHub, 20 GitHub Copilot, 21, 293, 316 global economic system, 172–173 global governance, computer ethics and, 337 global instrument, tokenization as a, 66 global research coordination, 268 Goldman Sachs, 12 goods, transactional tokens for, 62 Google about, 3, 26, 90, 102, 233, 301, 303, 304, 311, 314 Bard/LaMDA, 19 PaLM language model, 8 Google Glass, 92, 129, 274 governance, computer ethics and, 337 governance/participation tokens, 62 governments administration, as a key sector, 182–184 autonomous technology and, 334 centralized, 321 collection and analysis of personal data by, 222 democratic, 320–321 resources for technologies, 246 service economies and, 341 technology use by, 244–245

363

Index GPT about, 12–13, 14–16, 306 benefits of, 16 buckets for, 13 deep learning (DL), 14 machine learning (ML), 13 neural networks, 13–14 risks of, 16–17 Gram, Shudu (model), 220–221 green hydrogen, 110 gross domestic product (GDP), productivity and, 174–176

H

happiness, work and, 192–193 haptics, virtual reality (VR) and, 90 hardware improvements of, 114 virtual reality (VR) and, 90 hardware wallets, 69 Hassabis, Demis (CEO), 19, 303–304 Hawking, Stephen (physicist), 312, 332 health government access control, 245 of healthcare, 266–271 technology and, 119–125 healthcare about, 135 autonomous technology and, 334 health and digitization of, 266–271 job gains in, 180 job losses in administration, 177 help desks, autonomous technology and, 333 heuristic AI models, 218 higher education, job losses in, 177 homes additive manufacturing for, 84 air pollution and, 251 Internet of Things (IoT) and automation in, 86–87 Hoskinson, Charles (entrepreneur), 310 House Energy and Commerce Committee, 223 Huang, Jensen (Cofounder of Nvidia Corporation), 304–305 human, being, 348 human body frontier technologies and the, 125–132 future of the, 132–134 integrating technology with the, 126, 127–130, 274–275, 331–332 human characteristics, 264–266 human interaction, emphasizing and supporting, 201 human judgment, 200–201 Human Longevity Inc., 312 human resources, autonomous technology and, 334

human-­AI interaction, computer ethics and, 337 humans and humanity about, 263–266, 276–277 blending frontier technologies with, 272–275 emotions as central to, 346 health and digitization of healthcare, 266–271 impact and implications on, of disruptive technologies, 137–139 impact of computer ethics on, 337 transhumanism, 272–276 hydrogen fuel cells, 109–110

I

IBM, 25–26, 45 ideologues, 322 immersive 3D Web, 100 immersive e-­commerce engine, 100 immersive multiplayer games, 100–101 incentives, 237–239 independent coders, 103 individuals inflation and, 212–213 power to the, 214 industrial automation, 81–82 Industrial Light & Magic, 160 Industrial Revolution, 2, 78, 343 industrial sector, technology and, 115 industries, air pollution and, 250 inflation indexing, customized, 212–213 influencers about, 225, 323 virtual, 220–221 informal economy, as a key sector, 186–188 information about, 224–225 behavior, 221–223 biases, 218–220 categories of, 28–29 controlling measurement, 211–214 data overload, 215 deep data, 221–223 echo chamber mentality, 218–220 fact checking, 216–218 fake news, 215–216 freedom of expression, 218–220 power of, 207–211, 224 privacy, 221–223 tokens for assuring and securing, 59 tracking, 221–223 universe of, 28–29 virtual influencers, 220–221 infrastructure, job gains in, 179 Instagram, 3, 297–298 Instruct GPT, 17 insurance, job losses in, 177

364 integrated automation, 82 integrating technology with the body, 126, 127–130, 274–275, 331–332 technology with the mind, 275–276, 331–332 interaction, for voting, 214 interest rates, 173 Internet of Medical Things, 122–123 Internet of Things (IoT), 86–88, 95 Internet of Us (IoU), 132–133 investing, for “good,” 292 investment management, autonomous technology and, 333 investors, 319, 349 IP network, 35 isolation, 166 Israel, 288

J

Japan, holographic frontier technology computers in, 272–273 jewelry, additive manufacturing for, 84 job gains, 178–181, 195 job impact, computer ethics and, 337 job losses, 176–178, 195 job training, online technologies for, 187 “The Joseph Principle,” 347 jurisdictional conflict, for democratic governments, 320 justice system, autonomous technology and, 334

K

key sectors about, 181–182 gig economy, 188–189 government administration, 182–184 informal economy, 186–188 professional services, 182–184 transportation, 184–185 Khameini, Ayatollah, 233–234 know your customer (KYC), 63, 67 Kodama, Dr., 83 Kondo, Akihiko, 272

L

labor substitution, 150–151 Laozi (philosopher), 12, 353 large-­scale manufacturing, 170 law, job losses in, 177 Law of Cybernetic Entomology, 200 legal documents, controlling, 291 leisure, job gains in, 181 life expectancy, 120 LinkoCare Life Sciences AB, 128

Index Linköping University, 128 liquidity, in tokenization, 64–65 Littler Workplace Policy Institute, 273 live performance, 162 Llama (Meta), 20, 297–298 location tracking, 235–236 logistics autonomous technology and, 334 Internet of Things (IoT) and, 87 job losses in, 176 London Underground, 343 longer-­term frontier technologies, 252–253 LSI Logic, 305 Lubin, Joseph, 310 luddism, 343

M

Ma, Jack (businessman), 299 machine learning (ML), 13 maintenance, physical real estate and, 155 management, autonomous technology and, 335 manufacturing additive manufacturing for, 84 job losses in, 176 labor substitution, 150–151 nanofactories, 152–153 national security considerations, 151–152 physical real estate and, 154 production and, 150–153 public policy initiatives, 152 scale of, 170 Marconi, 31 massively open online courses (MOOCs), 203, 204 materials, physical real estate and, 154 mathematicians, 348 measurement controlling, 211–214, 224 inadequacy of systems, 340–341 media about, 349 controlling, 232–234 government control of, 244 medicine additive manufacturing for, 85 autonomous technology and, 334 improved quality of professionals, 269 medical transformation as a human characteristic, 265 robotic services in facilities, 271 technology and, 119–125 medium-­term frontier technologies, 251–252 memes, 237 mentoring, job gains in, 179 messages, controlling, 232–234

365

Index Meta, 20, 102, 297–298, 311 Meta Llama, 20 metaverse about, 54, 98–105, 135, 164–169, 170, 297–298, 313 job gains in, 180 uses for, 103–104 visions for, 100–101 “The Metaverse and Money: Decrypting the Future” report, 99 Metcalfe’s Law, 88, 258 micro-­decentralization, job gains in, 181 microfinance, online technologies for, 187 microlending, online technologies for, 187 Microsoft, 71, 90, 102, 237, 305–306, 311, 315 Microsoft 365 Copilot, 21 Microsoft Bing, 18–19 Microsoft Office 365, 21 Miku, Hatsune, 272 military about, 240–243, 246, 261, 349 augmented reality (AR) and, 93 autonomous technology and, 334–335 frontier technologies and, 323–324 Internet of Things (IoT) and, 88 mind, integrating technology with the, 275–276, 331–332 mining, 51, 250 mobile phones. See also communications, cellular molecular assemblers, 152 money about, 141–144 asset tokenization, 149–150 programmable, 145–146 self-­custodying, 146–149 monitoring autonomous technology and, 335 of conditions, 270 control and, 231–232 population by government, 245 MOOCs (massively open online courses), 203, 204 Moore, Gordon (businessman), 22 Moore’s Law, 88, 143 Morse, Samuel (inventor), 31 motivations, for technology executives, 318–319 Motorola, 33 movement control, by government, 245 movies, 161 Mt. Gox, 70 multiverse, 101 Murdoch, Rupert, 232–233 Musk, Elon (CEO), 38, 129, 210, 274, 276, 300–301, 302, 304, 312, 315

N

Nadella, Satya (CEO), 305–306 Nakamoto, Satoshi (author), 67

nanofactories, 152–153 nanotechnology, 126, 130–132, 273–274 narrow AI, 8 National Health Service (NHS), 270 national security considerations, 151–152 navigation, augmented reality (AR) and, 93 Netflix, 218 Netscape, 314 Network Rail, 222 neural networks, 13–14 Neuralink, 274, 276, 300–301 neuron-­like computing, 10 newspapers, 283–284 Newton’s Laws, 23 NFT platforms, 102–103 NHS (National Health Service), 270 NHSX, 270 Nifty Gateway, 102–103 Nike, 256 nodes, 13–14, 44 nonfungible tokens (NFTs), 58 North Korea cyberattacks and, 230 WannaCry attack, 241 Norvig, Peter (computer scientist), 9 not in my backyard (NIMBY), 251 NREL, 107 nuclear energy, 252 nuclear fission and fusion, 110–111 nudge technology, 221 nudge theory, 237–239 Nvidia Corporation, 304–305

O

Obama, Barack, 233 OECD, 117 Omniverse platform, 305 1G analog, 34 online dating, 282 online marketplaces, online technologies for, 187 OpenAI platform, 10, 19, 300–302, 303, 306 operation of the economy, by government, 245 optical couplers/switches, 32 Oracle, 308 orbital angular momentum (OAM), 32 Oura ring, 270

P

Page, Larry (businessman), 312 Palantir Technologies, 238, 301–302 PaLM language model (Google), 8 paper wallets, 69 Parkinson’s law, 341 participation/governance tokens, 62

366 PayPal, 301–302 Peak of Inflated Expectations, in Gartner’s Hype Cycle, 102 people, as resources, 248 People’s Republic of China, 299 permissioned blockchains, 46 personal communications, technologies for, 3–4 personal protection equipment (PPE), 151 photovoltaic (PV) cells, 107–108 physical dematerialization, 283–284 physical recreation, job gains in, 181 planet, reinventing about, 247–248, 260–261 products and processes, 253–256 real estate, 256–259 resources, 248–253 war, 259–260 Plateau of Productivity, in Gartner’s Hype Cycle, 102 platform molecule, 110 POA (proof of assignment), 48, 50 policing autonomous technology and, 335 by government, 245 policy, ethics and, 329–338 Policy Horizons, 118–119 population about, 173 government monitoring and control of, 245 portfolio approach, 291–292 POS (proof of stake), 48, 49–50 POSE (proof of something else), 48–49 POW (proof of work), 48–49 power to the individual, 214 of information, 207–211, 224 online technologies for, 188 Power Apps, 21 PPE (personal protection equipment), 151 PR firms, 104 preschool education, job gains in, 179 pre-­trained, 14 primary education, job gains in, 179 print newspapers/books, 283–284 privacy about, 221–223 computer ethics and, 336 control and, 227–229 private blockchains, 46 probabilistic approach, 23 procedural efficiency, maximizing, 271 processes autonomous technology and management of, 335 products and, 253–256, 261

Index production labor substitution, 150–151 manufacturing and, 150–153 nanofactories, 152–153 national security considerations, 151–152 public policy initiatives, 152 productivity about, 340–341 GDP and, 174–176 products, processes and, 253–256, 261 professional services, as a key sector, 182–184 profits dependence on scale, 209 investing in frontier technologies for, 290–292 as a motivator, 292 for technology executives, 319 programmable automation, 82 programmable money/assets, 145–146 programmers, 348 Project Starline, 90 proof of assignment (POA), 48, 50 proof of something else (POSE), 48–49 proof of stake (POS), 48, 49–50 proof of work (POW), 48–49 prototyping, additive manufacturing for, 84 public blockchains, 45 public policy initiatives, 152 public sector, 213, 349 pumped hydroelectric, 111–112 Putin, Vladimir (President of Russia), 308–309, 317 PV (photovoltaic) cells, 107–108

Q

QBrain, 276 Quantum Computers, 117 quantum computing about, 21–22 features of, 23–27 geothermal energy and, 109 for health/medicine, 121 quantum theory, 22–23 wind turbines and, 109 quantum theory, 22–23 qubits, 24

R

radio, traditional, 162 radio over fiber (ROF), 32 radioactivity, 110 random information, as a category of information, 28 ransomware, 229–231, 241 Rarible, 102–103 reaction, action compared with, 345 real estate

367

Index augmented reality (AR) and, 93 autonomous technology and, 335 environmental impact of, 256–259, 261 future of, 170 job losses in, 177 physical, 153–156 real-­world companies, 103 real-­world ownership, of digital mediums, 60 real-­world performers, 104 recycling products, 255–256 redistricting, for voting, 214 referenda, autonomous technology and, 333–334 refresh cycles, 293 regulation autonomous technology and, 335 computer ethics and, 337 for democratic governments, 320 in tokenization, 65 remote monitoring of conditions, 270 virtual and augmented reality for, 125 remote teams, 269 remote triage, 269–270 research and development, data power for, 267–268 research institutions, frontier technologies and, 324 researchers, 348 residential sector, technology and, 116 resistance, as a benefit of gig economy, 189 resources about, 173 air, 250–251 energy, 251–253 food, 248–249 people, 248 water, 249–250 response triggering, 234–237 responsibility, computer ethics and, 336 rights, of technology, 338 risks, of GPT, 16–17 Robinhood, 236 Roblox, 102 robotics about, 79–81 additive manufacturing (3D and 4D printing), 83–86 for health/medicine, 123 industrial automation, 81–82 procedures, 268–269 services in medical facilities, 271 ROF (radio over fiber), 32 Rometty, Ginni, 45 RSA-­2048 encryption, 241–242 Russell, Stuart, 9 Russia, 308–309 Russian hacking scandal, 233

S

Sacks, Jonathan (politician), 347 safety. See security and safety sales autonomous technology and, 335 physical real estate and, 155 Salesforce, 307–308 Sandbox, 102 satellite communication, 37–39 satellite entertainment, 162–163 satisfaction, work and, 192–193 scarcity, energy, 157 Schmidt, Eric (CEO), 314 Schwab, Klaus (founder of World Economic Forum), 315 scientists, 348 search engines, evolution of, 199 second wave, 10 secondary education job gains in, 179 secondary school, 203–204 security and safety computer ethics and, 337 control and, 227–229 physical real estate and, 155 society, 348–349 work and, 192 security tokens, 59–60 self-­custodying, 146–149 self-­driving banks, 149 self-­driving cars, autonomous technology and, 335 self-­interest, for technology executives, 319 self-­preservation maintaining, 201 work and, 192 semi-­autonomous technology, 332–335 service economies, government and, 341 service providers, 104 services, transactional tokens for, 62 short-­term freedom, as a benefit of gig economy, 188 short-­term frontier technologies, 251 Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), 236 Silk Road, 29 silver bullet technologies, 108 Singularity University, 312–313 sins of commission, 200 sins of omission, 200 Siri, 3, 8 6G networks, 37 Skinner, B.F. (psychologist), 238 Skype, 185 Slope of Enlightenment, in Gartner’s Hype Cycle, 102 smaller-­scale manufacturing, 170 smart contracts, 53–54, 75

368 smart grid, evolution of, 114 smart implants, virtual and augmented reality for, 125 Snow Crash (Stephenson), 98 social benefit, investing in frontier technologies for, 290–292 social media companies for, 104 democratization of, 215 social networks online technologies for, 187 topologies for, 235 The Social Dilemma (docu-­drama), 331 society, safeguarding, 348–349 software automation of, 94–95 virtual reality (VR) and, 89–90 software wallets, 70 solar energy, 107–108, 251–252 Sony Pictures, 230 sourcing, technology uses for, 105–114 Sousa, Miguel (journalist), 220–221 space exploration, job gains in, 180–181 SpaceX, 300–301 Sparrow (Deep Mind), 19 spending about, 141–144 asset tokenization, 149–150 programmable money and assets, 145–146 self-­custodying, 146–149 stability, work and, 192 stagnancy, of productivity, 341 Stanford University, 20 Starlink semimobile Internet, 38 Starship Technologies, 185 start-­ups, 52 Stephenson, Neal (author) Snow Crash, 98 Stibitz, George (researcher), 31 stochastic models, for AI, 9–10 Stripe, 303 strong AI, 9 structure, of Bitcoin/cryptocurrency, 68 subvisions, for metaverse, 100–101 Sun Microsystems, 306 super rich, 322 supernational organizations, 349 SuperRare, 102–103 Surface Web, as a category of information, 28–29 surgery, augmented reality for, 124 sustainable energy, 154 Sutskever, Ilya (computer scientist), 303 Sweeney, Tim (CEO), 313–314 Swing Riots, 343 symbolic AI, 9 Sysphean, 239 systemic constraints, of Bitcoin/ cryptocurrency, 68–69

Index T

tangible assets, 60 targeting, for voting, 214 tax preparation, job losses in, 177 TCP/IP (Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol), 74 teaching avatars, 204 Technological Trigger, in Gartner’s Hype Cycle, 102 technologies. See also consumer-­facing hardware technologies; enabling technologies; foundational technologies; frontier technologies about, 1–2, 134–135, 279–283, 292–294 acknowledging, 200 always-­on, 35 autonomous, 332–335 bioeconomy and biodigital convergence, 116–119 cognitive dematerialization, 284–287 for collection and storage of data, 2–3 conferencing, 203–204 consciousness of, 338 core elements of, 31 embracing, 200, 344–345 energy uses, 105–106 evolution of, 175–176, 206 future centers of innovation, 287–289 future of the human body, 132–134 government use of, 244–245 health/medicine uses, 119–125 human body uses, 125–132 integrating with the body, 274–275, 331–332 integrating with the mind, 275–276, 331–332 investing in frontier technologies for profit and social benefit, 290–292 job gains in, 180 limitations of, 200 for management and use, 4 metaverse uses, 98–105 for personal communications and daily online activity, 3–4 physical dematerialization, 283–284 rate of adoption for, 206 rights of, 338 sourcing uses, 106–114 types of, 5–6 up-­front design and planning, 114 uses of, 97–135 technology executives, 318–319 telemedicine, virtual and augmented reality for, 124–125 television, traditional, 162 tenets, 340 Tesla, 300–301 therapeutics, virtual reality for, 124 thermal storage, 112 Thiel, Peter (Cofounder of PayPal), 301–302

369

Index Three Laws of Robotics, 239 3D printing, 83–86, 95, 256 3G/3.5G networks, 34–35 365 Copilot (Microsoft), 21 TikTok, 3, 223, 235, 299, 300, 316 tokenization about, 43, 57, 75 asset, 149–150 asset tokens, 60–61 assuring and securing of data and information, 59 benefits of, 62–66 currency tokens, 61 financial instrument (security/equity/bond) tokens, 59–60 fractional ownership, 64 functional types, 58–62 global instrument, 66 for health/medicine, 123 liquidity, 64–65 participation/governance tokens, 62 regulation, 65 transactional tokens, 62 transparency, 63–64 types of tokens, 57–58 uses of tokens, 58–62 Tokyo Stock Exchange, 309 tourism, augmented reality (AR) and, 93 toxic materials, in products, 255 tracking, 221–223 traditional television/radio, 162 training and implementation augmented reality (AR) and, 92 job gains in, 179 virtual reality for, 124 transactional tokens, 62 transformation, in change and adoption, 344 transformer, 14 transhumanism about, 272–273 bio-­machines, 273–274 integrating technology with the body, 274–275 integrating technology with the mind, 275–276 nanotech, 273–274 translation, job losses in, 177 Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP), 74 transparency computer ethics and, 336 in tokenization, 63–64 transportation autonomous technology and, 335 Internet of Things (IoT) and, 87 job losses in, 176 as a key sector, 184–185 technology and, 115 Trough of Disillusionment, in Gartner’s Hype Cycle, 102

Trump, Donald, 233–234 TSA Pre-­Check, 222 Turing machine, 304 23andMe, 313 Twitter, 3, 301 2G digital, 34

U

Uber Eats, 185 UK National Health Service, 346 Ulbricht, Ross, 29 UltraBoost DNA Loop, 256 uncertainty, quantum computing and, 24–25 United Kingdom bed blocking, 271 cyberattacks and, 230 as a global hub, 288–289 media control, 232–233 National Health Service (NHS), 270 surveillance cameras in, 231–232 United States democracy in, 287 GDP in, 174–175 as heart of venture capital related innovation, 288 media control, 232–233 President of, 317 technology in, 293 Universal Scene Description software, 304–305 universe developers, 103 universities about, 204–205 frontier technologies and, 324 University College London, 303 Unreal 5 engine, 102 Unreal Engine, 313 upcycling products, 256 UPS, 185 Uranium 235, 110 urban planning, augmented reality (AR) and, 93 U.S. Department of Energy, 108 U.S. Department of Transportation, 184 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 65 users about, 103, 349 constraints of Bitcoin/cryptocurrency, 69–71 frontier technologies and, 324 utility companies, 104 utility tokens, 58

V

VALL-­E, 237 variation, in change and adoption, 344 virtual digital models, 220–221

370 virtual entertainment, 163 virtual influencers, 220–221 virtual reality (VR) about, 89–91, 95 for health/medicine, 124–125 visions, for metaverse, 100–101 voting customized, 213–214 ease of, 214

W

wallets, 69 WallStreet Bets, 236 Walmart, 185 WannaCry attack, 241 war, 259–260 War of the Worlds (Wells), 273 water as a resource, 249–250 role of technology in, 260 Watson, James, 131 wavelength division multiplexing, 32 weak AI, 8 weapons systems, 243 wearable data-­collecting technology, 86 wearables, virtual and augmented reality for, 125 Web 3.0, 98 Wells, H.G. (author) War of the Worlds, 273 whales, 70, 72 WhatsApp, 297–298, 316 Whisper, 17 Wikipedia, 217 Wilde, Oscar (poet), 352 wind energy, 108–109, 252 wired communication, 32–33

Index wireless communication, 33 Wojcicki, Anne (CEO), 313 Wood, Gavin (computer scientist), 310 work about, 171–172, 194–195 constants for, 191–193 current status, 172–174 future of work, 189–194 job gains, 178–181 job losses, 176–178 key sectors, 181–189 productivity, 174–176 work from anywhere (WFA), 153–154, 191, 258 work from home (WFH), 3, 153–154, 190–191, 258 World Economic Forum (WEF), 275, 306, 315 World Wide Web, 27, 28 writing, job losses in, 178

X

Xi Jinping (leader of China), 299-300, 317 XPrize Foundation, 312–313

Y

Yeltsin, President, 308

Z

zeitgeist, 158–159 Zero Gravity Corporation, 312 Zhang Yiming (entrepreneur), 299 Zoom, 102, 203–204 Zuckerberg, Mark (CEO), 210, 211, 297–298, 314, 315

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