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TheStateoftheEarth
TheState ofthe Earth EnvironmentalChallenges ontheRoadto2100
PaulK.Conkin
THEUNIVERSITYPRESSOFKENTUCKY
Publicationofthisvolumewasmadepossibleinpartbyagrant fromtheNationalEndowmentfortheHumanities. Copyright©2007byPaulK.Conkin ScholarlypublisherfortheCommonwealth, servingBellarmineUniversity,BereaCollege,CentreCollegeofKentucky,Eastern KentuckyUniversity,TheFilsonHistoricalSociety,GeorgetownCollege,Kentucky HistoricalSociety,KentuckyStateUniversity,MoreheadStateUniversity,Murray StateUniversity,NorthernKentuckyUniversity,TransylvaniaUniversity,University ofKentucky,UniversityofLouisville,andWesternKentuckyUniversity. Allrightsreserved. EditorialandSalesOffices:TheUniversityPressofKentucky 663SouthLimestoneStreet,Lexington,Kentucky40508-4008 www.kentuckypress.com 11 10 09 08 07 5 4 3 2 1 LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Conkin,PaulKeith. ThestateoftheEarth:environmentalchallengesontheroadto2100/Paul K.Conkin. p.cm. Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN-13:978-0-8131-2411-7(hardcover:alk.paper) ISBN-10:0-8131-2411-5(hardcover:alk.paper) 1.Environmentalresponsibility.2.Environmentaleducation.3.Environmental policy.I.Title. GE195.7.C662006 333.72--dc222006032085 Thisbookisprintedonacid-freerecycledpapermeetingtherequirementsofthe AmericanNationalStandardforPermanenceinPaperforPrintedLibraryMaterials. ManufacturedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica . MemberoftheAssociationof AmericanUniversityPresses
Contents ListofIllustrations vi Preface vii Acknowledgments xi PartOne:TheSettingandtheChallenge 1.OurGreenPlanet 3 2.Population,Consumption,andtheEnvironment 23 PartTwo:VitalResources 3.Soil,Vegetation,andFood 43 4.WaterandEnergy:WillThereBeEnough? 65 PartThree:TheHumanThreat 5.Pollution,Waste,andtheOzoneLayer 101 6.TheExtinctionCrisis 131 PartFour:ClimateChange 7.ClimateChangeinaGlacialEpoch 165 8.GreenhouseGasesandClimateChange 189 PartFive:EnvironmentalPoliciesandPhilosophies 9.ReformEnvironmentalistsandAmericanEnvironmental Policy 227 10.PassionateEnvironmentalism 251 APersonalAfterword 279 Notes 289 Index 299
Illustrations Figures WorldPopulation,1950–2004 25 AnnualGrowthRateinWorldPopulation,1950–2004 25 IncomeInequalitywithinRegions 31 UndernourishedPopulationsinthe1990s 53 DeforestationRate,1980–2000 59 PeopleWithoutSafeDrinkingWater 68 GlobalWaterConsumption 69 GlobalEnergySupply 82 WorldOilConsumption,1950–2004 87 GreatOceanConveyorBelt 177 LastGlacialMaximum,18,000YearsAgo 183 GlobalDeparturesinTemperature(C)fromthe1961to1990 Average 187 GlobalAnnualMeanRadiativeForcing 204 IPCCPredictionsofWarmingby2100AccordingtoClimateModels 205 IPCCPredictionsofOceanRiseby2100AccordingtoClimate Models 207 CO2EmissionsandKyotoTargets:NorthAmerica,EuropeanUnion, andJapan 215 CarbonEmissionsfromFossilFuelBurning,1950–2003 217 Table The2006IUCNRedListofThreatenedSpecies,SummaryStatistics 138–39
Preface I suspect few people regret the passing of the twentieth century. It is impossible to forget the troubled events from 1914 to 1945: internationalturmoil,twogreatwars,aworldwidedepression,theriseoftwo totalitarian ideologies and regimes, the cruelty of the Holocaust, and totalwarfareencompassingcivilianpopulations.Justasremarkable,and possiblyevenmoremomentousinlong-termconsequences,wastheunprecedented, and almost incomprehensible, growth of human populationsandhumanconsumptionduringthatcentury. Aftergrowingfrom1.7billionto3billionfrom1900to1960,the world population doubled, from 3 billion to just over 6 billion, from 1960to2000.TheUnitedNationsPopulationDivisionestimatedapopulation of almost 6.5 billion in 2005. By most estimates, the world’s population will be around 9 billion by 2050. Of the necessary conditionsforthispopulationexplosion,twoareallbutobvious.Onewasthe developmentandworldwidedisseminationofnewknowledgeandnew technologiesinthepreventionandcureofdiseases.Thisincreasedlife expectancyinallpartsoftheworld,butwiththemostdramaticconsequencesinmuchofAfricaandAsia.Theothernecessaryconditionwas the dramatic increase of human economic productivity, with the most criticalimprovementinagriculture.Thisresultedfromacontinuedbut accelerateduseofnewknowledgeandmoreefficienttools.Theenergy forthisproductivityexplosioncamelargelyfromthecontrolledburning oforganicmaterials. The economic growth exceeded that of population. Estimates here arenotexact,butinroughtermstheworlddomesticproductandenergy userosebyatleasttwelvetimesinthetwentiethcentury.Mostofthis increasewasinthetwenty-fivewealthiestcountries,butsomegrowth occurredinallareasoftheworld.Humansusedmorefossilfuelsinthis onecenturythaninallpasthistory.Thisaccompaniedaneartenfold increase in water use.As with population, most of this growth came vii
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afterWorldWarII,inwhatturnedouttobeanalmostfrenziedperiod ofgrowthinallareas. This growth in both population and consumption, with all its rewards, has led to a twofold problem that can only worsen as the new centuryprogresses.Oneisregionalscarcitiesofessentialresources—soil, water,andenergy—orscarcitiesalreadysufferedinmuchoftheunderdevelopedareasoftheearth.Theotheristheburdenplacedontheearth andonotherspeciesbywhathumanshavedone—bypollutingair,water, andsoil,bystealingessentiallivingspaceawayfromotherspecies,and by contributing to such major changes in our atmosphere and in the oceansastothreatenmajorclimatechange.Compoundingtheseproblems is a huge ethical dilemma.The gap in incomes between the top one-fourthofhumanityandthelowerthree-fourthsiswide.Byalmost any calculation, the earth does not have the basic resources needed to raisethepoorerpeopleoftheworldtolivingstandardsevenclosetothat of the top twenty-five countries.And if, by some miracle, everyone in theworldcouldconsumewhatAmericansdo,theearthcouldnotlong absorbthepollutionandgrowingburdenofwasteproducts. Itisdifficulttoimaginearateofgrowthineitherpopulationorconsumptioninthetwenty-firstcenturythatcomesevenclosetothatinthe twentieth.Whatiftheearth’spopulationdidquadruple,andthusmove up to 24 billion?What if resource use and consumption increased by twelvetimes?Neitherwillhappen,fortheearthcouldnotbegintosustaineitherincrease.Thus,thegreatchallenge:eitherstabilizepopulations andlimitconsumption,orfindnewwaysofcopingwithbothtypesof growth.Populationgrowthisnotaproblemforaffluentcountries,but theirpresentpaceofgrowthinproductionandconsumption,ifcontinued,willsoonleadtomajorresourcescarcitiesandproblemsofpollution.Evenifrapidconsumptivegrowthcontinuesyetawhileinwealthy countries,suchgrowthwillrequireafurtherdrawdownofresources, suchasoil,fromthepoorerareasoftheworld.Thiswillinvitecontinued politicaltensions,andmakemoredifficultanynarrowingofthepresent gapbetweenlivingstandardsinrichandpoorcountries. At present, knowing what we now know with some degree of assurance, it is almost impossible to be sanguine about the state of the earth,andthustheoverallhumanprospect,bytheendofthiscentury. Insomanyareasonecancitetheproblemsbutnotidentifyanyclearor politicallyfeasiblesolutions.Itiseasytosuggestthatthepeopleinthe
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underdevelopedworldshouldcurtailpopulationgrowth.Birthratesare now declining in most counties, but not rapidly enough to stabilize theworld’spopulationbefore2050,andbymostforecastsnotbefore 2100. It is easy to suggest that people in wealthy countries, where populations are often stable or in decline, should change patterns of consumption or even lower their level of material consumption. But to persuade them to do so would require radicalchangesinthevery structureoftheirsocieties. Theseproblems,thesechallenges,arewhatIhavetriedtoaddressinthis book.Iworryaboutthemallthetime.Iknowmostotherpeoplesharethese concerns. In this book, it is my purpose to help them better understand thechallengesthatlieahead.IhopeIhaveofferedsuchanunderstanding oftheearthandoflifeonearthastoenablelaypeopletounderstandthe planet’svulnerabilitytohumanactivities.Ihavetriedtosurveytheroad thatledtothemajorenvironmentalissuesthathumansfacetoday.Iwant tohelppeopleunderstandwhyweneedtoattendtotheseproblems,but alsotounderstandtherisksandcostsofsuchefforts. Thisisnoeasytask.Theissuesarecomplex,andinvolvetheinsights developedbyalmosteveryacademicdiscipline.Ineedtobeclear,butnot attheexpenseofbeingover-simplistic.Theliteratureonenvironmental issues is now monumental, and growing exponentially every year. No onecanreaditall.Noonecanhavethetechnicalknowledgetounderstanditall.Mytaskhasbeentotrytogainanunderstandingoftheissues,andtocommunicatethatunderstandinginawaythatwillinform abroaderaudiencethanisaddressedbymostexperts,andwithoutthe politicalagendathataccompaniesmostbooksandarticlesbycommitted butoftendeeplydividedenvironmentalists. Iwriteasanoldman.Iwillnotbearoundmuchlonger.ThechallengesIcitewilllargelyaffectmygrandchildrenandgreatgrandchildren. Theywillalmostcertainlyhavetocopewithamuchwarmerearth.They willhavetofindsolutionstosuchotherglobalproblemsasoceanpollution,muchhighercostsforfossilfuels,andregionalscarcitiesoffood andwater.Butwhatwillbemostrevolutionary,andcompletelyunprecedentedinthelasttwothousandyears,theywillhavetoadjusttoaworld in which the present pattern of rapid growth—in population, in productionandconsumption—willnolongerbepossible.Inthetwentieth century,theabilityofhumanstoshapetheworldaroundthemgrewat anunprecedentedrate.Technologicaladvancessurpassedinonecentury
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allthathadcomebefore.Butthecosthasbeenveryhigh,forthegrowth hasnotbeensustainablebecauseofthedrawdownoffiniteresources. Insomanyareas,thegrowth,andthematerialabundanceithasyielded, hascreatedenvironmentaldebtsthathumanswillhavetopayduringthis centuryiftheyaretomakeitsafelyandsecurelyto2100.Thismaybethe greatestchallengetheyhaveeverfaced.
Acknowledgments Tosomeextentanybookreflectsthecontributionsofmanypeople.Becauseofthediversityofdisciplinesinvolvedinthisproject,mostcontributorstothecontent,andmorespecificallythescientificcontent,have beenpeopleIdonotknowpersonally,butwhosebooksandarticlesI haveread.Manyofthesearecitedintheendnotes. IammuchindebttoProfessorJonathanM.Gilligan,SeniorLecturer inEarthandEnvironmentalSciencesatVanderbiltUniversity.Heisanexpertonglobalwarmingaswellasonmanyenvironmentalissues.Heread mychaptersonclimatechange,referredmetomanyneededsources,and identifiedmistakesorunclearanalysis. IdidalmostallmyresearchandwritinginastudywithintheCentral LibraryoftheJeanandAlexanderHeardLibraryatVanderbilt.Asalways, thestaffofboththeCentralandtheScienceandEngineeringlibraries werehelpfulinfindingorborrowingneededbooks. Themaps,charts,andgraphsforthisbookderivedfromthesources identifiedbelow.Igratefullyacknowledgethesesources,andthepermissiontoprintblack-and-whiteversionsoftheillustrations. Figures3–8and16arefromapublicationpreparedbytheUnited NationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsfortheJohannesburg Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, GlobalChallenge,GlobalOpportunity,TrendsinSustainableDevelopment(2002). Figures1,2,9,and17arefromWorldwatchInstitute,VitalSigns2005, www.worldwatch.org. Figures10and12–15arefromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,ClimateChange2001,TheScientificBasisandClimateChange2001, SynthesisReport(Cambridge,U.K.:CambridgeUniv.Press,2001).Manyof theseillustrationsappearintheothertwovolumesofClimateChange2001, andinallcasesinbrilliantcolorversions. Figure11,amaplabeledLastGlacialMaximum,wasspeciallypreparedby C.R.Scotesein2006,butderivedfromhisPALEOMAPPROJECT(www. xi
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scotese.com).Aversionofthismapappearsonpage52ofC.R.Scotese, AtlasofEarthHistory,vol.1,Paleogeography(Arlington,Texas,2002). Table1,theInternationalUnionforConservationofNatureandNaturalResources2006RedListofThreatenedSpecies(www.iucnredlist.org), wasdownloadedonMay25,2006.
PARTONE
TheSettingand theChallenge Humansliveonawondrousplanet.Noothermaybelikeit.Noother maysupportself-consciousformsoflife.Theearthisinnoearlydanger oflosingitslife-supportingassets.Atleast,weareawareofnosuchdanger,inspiteofremoteconcernsaboutacollidingasteroid.Butwedolive inaperiodofrapidextinctions,andcouldinthenearfuturefacerapid changesinclimate.Toagreaterextentthaneverbefore,onespeciesof life—Homosapiens—alreadyplaysamajorroleineffectingchangesin theearth’slife-supportsystem.Inthissense,humansarenotonlytheonly speciesthatcanknowaboutthepasthistoryoftheearth,orunderstand thecomplexityofitsbiosphereinthepresent,butalsoaretheonlyspecies abletotakeresponsibilityforitsfuturehealth.Inchapter1,Iofferreaders ashort,summativeaccountofhowtheearthcametosupportnotonly primitiveformsoflife,butverycomplexforms. Inchapter2,inverybroadtermsIassessthepresentchallengesto alife-sustainingearth,andparticularlyanearththatcanallowhumans, everywhere,toliveanabundantlife.Wealreadycananticipatethegreat squeeze. An unprecedented surge in population, and an even faster growthinhumanconsumption,willsoonincreasewhatisalreadyarealityforoverhalftheearth’spopulation—scarcitiesinsuchvitalresources asproductivesoils,water,andenergy,andsomuchpollutionofair,water,andlandastothreatenthesurvivalofthousandsofspecies.Butthe challenges vary immensely, from those faced by wealthy, high-energy, high-consumptionsocietiestothosesufferedbythethree-fourthsofhumansthatliveinrelativelypoortoverypoorcountries.Thismeansthat equityissueshauntalldiscussionsofenvironmentalproblems.
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heearthsupportslife.Fromallthatwenowknow,itistheonlysuch planetinoursolarsystem,althoughitispossiblethat,inthepast, oneormoreoftheothereightplanets,ortheirsatellites,sustainedlife. Itisevenconceivablethatlifemigratedtotheearthfromneighboring planets,withMarsthemostlikelycandidate.Itisalsoconceivablethat livingorganismsreachedtheearthfromcometsorasteroids.Atleasta richmixtureoforganicchemicalssoreachedtheearth,andstilldo.In anycase,thebackgroundtoallenvironmentalchallengesoftodayisthe livingearth.
THEORIGINANDEVOLUTIONOFLIFEONEARTH Itisdifficulttostipulateadefinitionoflifethatsatisfieseveryone,orthat is useful in all contexts. But living organisms, even if with a very different,evenunimaginable,chemicalmakeupthanthoseonearth,may wellexistonplanetsthatcircleotherstars,inourowngalaxyorinother galaxies.Wenowknow,throughindirectbutcompellingevidence,that planetscircleupto5percentofthestarsinourMilkyWaygalaxy,which isonlyoneofaround100billiongalaxies.Sincethelikelynumberof starsinouruniversenumbersinthequadrillions,andsincemanystars havecharacteristicsclosetothatofoursun,itwouldseemhighlylikely that other planets, perhaps millions or even billions of other planets, supportlife.Butasyetwehavenoevidenceofsuchlife,andshortof extraterrestrialintelligentlife(organismswithasymboliclanguagethat wouldallowinterstellarcommunication),wewillnotsoon,ifever,have anywaytoknowaboutlifebeyondoursolarsystem.Eveninourgalaxy, 3
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suchcommunicationwillnotbeeasy.Thecloseststartothesunisfour lightyearsaway.Inareasonablelimitforpresentelectroniccommunication(onethousandlightyears),wehaveabout10millionstars,many comparabletooursun.Evenatonethousandlightyears,anyelectronic communicationmightwellbefromintelligentbeingsalreadyextinct. Theprimitiveearthnotonlyprovidedasuitablehomeforearlylife, but it would, from that point on, be profoundly shaped by life. It is almost impossible, today, to speak about any aspect of the earth’s historywithoutimplicatinglife,whichaboveallcreatedthepresentlevelof atmosphericoxygen.Eventhehotgasesinaneruptingvolcanocontain carbon that once was part of living organisms.Thousands of chemical reactionsinvolveorganicmolecules,includingthosethatcontributeto theweatheringofrocksandthecreationofsoils.Withtheearlydevelopmentofphotosynthesis,lifebeganaslowprocessofcoolingtheearth’s earlyhottemperature.Itdidthisbyabsorbingcarbondioxide,inmost casestemporarilyinbiomass,morepermanentlyincarbon-richdeposits ontheoceanfloor.Intheseways,andmore,lifeitselfslowlyprepareda moreandmorehospitableenvironmentformuchmorecomplexforms oflife,allthewaytomammals.Ourgreenplanetistheresult.Thepresent Marsisalikelymodelofanearthwithoutlife.Innoliteralsenseisthe inanimatepartoftheearthalivingorganism,buttheearthasawhole issofulloflife,soinseparablytiedtolife,thatonemaybeinclinedto socharacterizeit,asdoesJamesLovelockinhishighlyspeculativeGaia hypothesis(seechapter10). Theinfluenceoflifeontheearthhadtobeminimalinthefirstbillion yearsafteritsstillinexplicablebeginnings.Adetailedhistoryoflifeon earthisbeyondourknowledge,atleastatpresent.Onelikelycandidate foritsplaceoforiginarethedeepseaventsalongmid-oceanridges.It isclearthatfortwobillionyearstheonlylifeonearthconsistedofmicroscopicorganisms,withcell-likestructuresthatcontainednonucleus (suchorganismsarecalledprokaryotes)andthusnoconcentratedDNA. Mostwerebacteria,butsomeinwhatseemalmostimpossibleenvironments(superhotvents,verysaltywater,orveryacidicwater)aretoday classifiedasaseparateorder,thearchaea.Onlyabout1.5billionyearsago didthefirsteukaryotes(organismssuchastheamoebawithcellularnuclei)evolve.Thesewerethedistantprogenitorsofallplantsandanimals. We cannot know whether early life had single or multiple origins. We do now understand how it evolved through time. Charles Darwin
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graspedtherathersimpleprinciple,whilelatergeneticistshaverevealed thedynamicsoforganicchange.Whatisessentialtoanydefinitionoflife isreproduction.Livingorganismscontainnodistinctiveelements.What constitutesthemarecertainchemicals,withcarbonandhydrogenmost important,organizedinapattern,anidentitythatcontinuesfromone generation to another. Early, prokaryotic reproduction involved a type ofcloning.Oneorganism,guidedbythedispersedDNA,splitintotwo, andsoonindefinitely.Eachsucceedingorganismcopieditsparent.But notalwaysperfectly.Thenasnow,theoldandnewstrandsofDNAdid notalwaysmatchateverypoint.Copyingerrorsledtosmallchanges,or mutations.Thisopenedthedoortovariationand,intimesofrapidenvironmentalchange,toasometimesrapidshiftincertaintraits.Attimes, copying mistakes made it less likely that an individual would survive. Inrarecases,mutationsmeantthatanorganismhadbetterchancesof surviving or reproducing, or in a time of rapid environmental shifts, theonlychanceofsurviving.Withsexualreproduction,therecombinationofstrandsofDNAinmeiosis(theproductionofspermandeggs) increasedexponentiallythepossibilityofvariationsfromonegeneration tothenext,butonlymutationsallowedcompletelynewpatterns.
SUNANDEARTH Despite the seeming possibilities, or the statistical probabilities, of life elsewhere,onehastonotenotonlythemanycircumstancesonearththat madelifepossible,butevenmorethosethatmademorecomplexforms oflifepossible,includingmammals.Somuchhadtobejustright,andas onelocateseachfortunatecircumstancetheoddsagainstanotherplanet withevenclosetothesamelife-supportingtraitsgrowsexponentially. Organismsoneartharefortunatetobeneartherightstar.Oursunis ayoungtomiddle-agedstar,stillradioactivebutreasonablystable.Itis, inbrief,ahugefusionreactor,bornoutoftheremnantsofearlierstars justover4.5billionyearsago.Itprovidesalmostalltheenergyforlifeon earth(thesmallexceptionistheheatfrombeneaththeearth’scrust).As alatedevelopingstarinthelargeruniverse,whichwenowbelievebegan inthebigbangover13billionyearsago,itgainedmanyheavyelements from the fusion that took place during the dramatic deaths of earlier stars(supernovas),thusimplicatingearliergenerationsofstarsandgalaxiesinitslife-supportingrole.Becauseofthesurfacetemperatureofthe
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sun,mostoftheenergythatmakesittotheearthisinthenearmiddle spectrumofelectromagneticwaves,withapreponderanceinthenarrow spectrumofvisiblelight(visiblethatistoahumaneye).Werethesun muchhotter,itwouldradiatelargelyshorterwaves,thosedangerousto life(itdoesradiatesomesuchenergy,butnotenoughtooverwhelmthe protectivebarrierstoshortwaveradiationinouratmosphere).Ifthesun wereanagedstar,itwouldnotbehotenoughtosupportlifeonearth.By mostcalculations,thesuntodayis25–30percenthotterthanwhenthe earthformed,andwillbehotterstillinthefuture.Ourfusionreactorhas notyetstartedtowinddown. Theearthisaveryspecialplanet.Itsagemaynotbecriticalforlifesupport(itisaround4.5to4.6billionyearsold),butthefactthatitisa radioactiveplanetisnecessaryforthetypeoflifethatnowinhabitsthe earth.Notably,neitherofthetwonearbyplanets—VenusandMars—have such a radioactive core, although Mars probably had such a core, and themagneticfieldsitcreates,earlyinitshistory.Radioactivedecayhelps heattheinterioroftheearth.Also,thehighlycompressed,veryhot,ferrousinnercoreoftheearthgeneratesbothheatandelectricalactivityin thefluid,largelyferrousoutercore,andthiselectricalenergyandheat, joinedwiththatproducedbyradiation,istransferredtothelargelysilicatemantle,whichreachesuptotheearth’scrust.Inasense,thefluid outercoreactsasanelectricalgenerator,orwhatsomecallthegeomagnetic dynamo.The generator effect may be increased by what seems a slowerrevolutionoftheinnercoreandloweroutercorethanfortherest oftheearth.Inanycase,thedynamicsoftheoutercorecreateselectrical currentsthatpervadethemantleandreachtheearth’ssurface.Theseelectricalcurrentsproducethemainmagneticfieldaroundtheearth. Thechemicalcompositionoftheearthiscriticalforlife-support.In theuniverseasawhole,thetwomostplentifulelementsarehydrogen andhelium.Notsoonearth.Formedfromthedebrisofacoalescingsun, theearthhasahighproportionofheavyelements,beginningwiththe mostprevalent,iron.Itcontainsmorethanitsshareofelementscritical to life, beginning with carbon. It is also rich in nitrogen and oxygen. Much of the early earth’s hydrogen and helium probably escaped the planet’satmosphere,withthemostplentifulsurvivinghydrogenlocked upinwater(atpresent,theonlyelementtoescapefromouratmosphere ishydrogen,butthislossmaybebalancedbythehydrogeninthewater presentinincomingmeteors).
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Theearthhasatleastitsshareofotherlife-supportingelements,such as sulphur, phosphorus, potassium, and calcium. But it would be the hydrogenandcarbon,andacriticalmedium,water,thatmadethetype oflifeweknowonearthpossible,whetheritoriginatedonearthornot. Waterisawonderfulmedium,lighterwhenfrozenthanasaliquid,thus floatingontheoceans.Ificewereheavier,mostoftheoceanswouldhave graduallyfrozenover,andtheearthwouldhavebeentoocoldforlife, notjustbecauseofallthatice,butbecausetheicysurfacewouldhave reflectedsomuchsolarenergybackintospace. Thevariedrelationshipsbetweenthesunandeartharecriticaltolife. Life does not depend on any set distance between a star and a planet. Distanceisacovariablealongwithorbit,axialorientation,speedofrevolution,andaboveallwithatmosphere.Butgiventheearth’satmosphere, thesunistheperfectdistancefromtheearth,allowingameanearthtemperatureconsistentwithapreponderanceofliquidwater.Eventheplacementofotherplanetsaroundthesun,andparticularlythelargegaseous planets far out from the earth, helped make life possible on earth, for they,particularlyJupiter,haveenoughgravitytopullmostasteroidsand cometsawayfrompathsthatwouldotherwiseallowthemtobombard theearthwithlife-extinguishingforce. Theorbitiscritical.Theearthhasonlyaslightlyellipticalorbit,which graduallychangesinitseccentricityoveracycleofninety-fivethousand years,whichmeansthesun’sdistancefromtheearthvariesonlyslightly fromyeartoyear(only3millionmilesaroundtheaverageof93million).Theslightshiftsintheamountofthesun’senergyreceivedbythe earth may trigger major climate changes, but in itself this eccentricity doesnotchangesurfacetemperaturesevenby1C. Therapidrevolutionoftheearthonitsaxis(orthelengthoftheday) isalsoacriticalvariable.Amuchslowerrevolution,giventheexisting distanceandexitingatmosphere,wouldatleastconsiderablyreducethe inhabitableportionoftheearth,foraslowerrevolutionwouldleadto muchcoldernightsandhotterdays.Suchachangeisinevitableinthe distantfuture,fortheearth’sspinhasgraduallyslowedfromthetimeof itsorigin.Thefasterrevolutionthatprevailedinthedistantpastminimizedthetemperaturechangefromnighttoday,andwiththisthedifferentialbetweendayandnighttemperaturesontheearth’ssurface,which meantlowerwindspeedsandlessseverestorms. Theearthhasalife-enhancing,andonlyslightlyvarying,axialincli-
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nation(from21.8to24.4,butnowapproximately23.5).Thisisthe degreetowhichtheaxisdepartsfromperpendiculartotheflowofenergyfromthesun.Wenowbelieveanearlycollisionbetweentheyoung earthandasmallerplanetnotonlycreatedthisinclination,butalsoresultedinanexplodingmassthatcoalescedasourmoon.Theinclination causestheseasonsandallowsalargerproportionoftheearth’ssurfaceto beconducivetolife.Weretheinclinationgreater,theseasonswouldbe moreextremeasthesunwouldannuallymovetohigherlatitudes.With less inclination, the tropics would be much hotter, the high latitudes muchcolder.1
PLATETECTONICS Theearthhasaclearlydemarcatedcrust.Itrestsontopofthemantle. Thecrustincludesarelativelythinlayerofrockunderneathoceans,anda deeperlayeroflighterrockinlandareas.Sectionsofthiscrust,whichwe callplates,moveaboutonthesurfaceofthemantleataglacialpace,but overmillionsofyearssuchmovementhasledtomajorchangesinthelocationofbothcontinentsandoceans.Inareaswheremovingplatesconverge,theenormousforcepushesthesurfaceofthecrustupward(folds it)intomountainsormoregentlyelevateslargeexpansesofland(warps it). Converging ocean plates, being heavier, push beneath continental plates.Partofthesubductedcrustofoceansisthusgraduallyabsorbed backintothemoltenmantle.Buttheconvergencecreatescracksorfault linesinboththeoceanandcontinentalcrusts,allowingmagmatopush upwardinaprocesscalledvulcanism,whichhelpscreatenewland.In comparativelyrarecases,continentalplatescrunchintoeachother,creatingthemostdramaticfoldingandthusthehighestmountains.Today,this isoccurringonlywheretheAsiansubcontinent(ortheIndo-Australian plate)pushesagainsttheEurasianplate,asdramaticallyillustratedbythe still-risingHimalayanchain.TheIndiansubcontinentismovingnorthat thecomparativelyrapidrateofsixandahalffeeteachcentury.Atother places,largeplatesseparate,creatingriftvalleysandlakesornewinland extensionsofoceansandseas.Alongoceans,landcontinuallyerodesinto thesea,butatapproximatelythesamerateasnewlandformsfromthe depositsofrivers(deltas)andfromvulcanism.Thusthesurfaceofthe earthrevealsacomplex,dynamicequilibriumofcompetingforces. Today,thestartingpointforunderstandingthecrustoftheearthis
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whatwecallplatetectonics.Thiswasnottrueevensixtyyearsago.Until thetwentiethcentury,ifanythingseemedcertaintogeologistsitwasthe stabilityofcontinents.Yet,historianshavediscoveredasurprisingnumberofgeographersandgeologistswhonotedthejigsaw-likepuzzlefit oftheeasternhumpofBrazilwiththelargeindentationinthewestern coastofAfrica.Afewevenspeculatedthatthepastconvergenceofthe twocontinentsexplainedthepeoplingoftheAmericas.Butnoonehada provableexplanationofhowthetwocontinentsseparated,andwhenand howquickly.Untilthenineteenthcentury,giventhewidespreadbelief intheforeshortenedchronologysupportedbytheChristianBible,ithad tobeaveryrapidshift,perhapseveninstantaneousandmiraculous,ora god’swayofdispersinghumansacrossthewholeearth.In1912,aGermangeologist,AlfredWegener,arguedthatthepresentcontinentshad driftedapartinthepast(continentaldrift),fromthebreakupofahuge supercontinent,whichhecalledPangaea.Hegainedalmostnosupport forthistheory,andfacedridiculeaslateashisdeathin1930.Oneproblemhefacedwashowtoaccountforsuchcontinentalmovement.What couldpushwholecontinentsabout? AfterWorldWarIInewinformationabouttheoceanfloorfinallyvindicatedWegener.Thediscoveryofthemid-Atlanticridge,andthedatingofrocknearit,revealedthatnearbyrockwasofveryrecentorigin, andtheageofmoredistantrockproportionatetothedistancefromthis ridge.Thecrustinthemid-Atlanticwasslowlyseparating.Laterobservationsofsuchmid-oceanridgesrevealedfrequentvents(smallextrusions ofheatedgases)alongtheseparatingridges,andthegradualfillinginof newcrust.Thelayofcrystalsinmagmahelpeddatetheirorigin,sincewe nowcandatepastreversalsinthemagneticfieldthatorientssuchcrystals astheycool.Thisprovedthatmanycontinentswerenowthousandsof milesfromwheretheyhadbeeninthepast.Suchpaleomagnetismallowedgeologiststomappastcontinentalmovements.EvenhereWegener hadbeenprescient,forasrecentlyasabout200millionyearsagomost (butnotall)ofthelandmassoftheearthclusteredtogether,andthisat thebeginningoftheseparationthatslowlycreatedtheAtlanticOcean. Themovementofcontinentsmeantthattheearth’scrustisnotofa piece,butcutupintomanylargeplatesandsomesmallerones.Themajorplatesareaslargeascontinentsoroceans.Atthejunctureofplatesare majorcracksorfaultlines,withmanyminorfaultlinesintheinteriorof plates.Theplatesseemtobeincontinuousmotion,althoughnotatthe
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samespeed.Thesediscoveriesrevolutionizedgeology.Somuchthathad beenpuzzlingwasnowclear,includingthelocationofareasofintense vulcanism(onornearplateboundaries),thedynamicsofearthquakes (alongplateboundariesormajorfaults),andthesourceoftheenergy thatledtomajorcrustalfoldingandthusmountainranges. Whydotheplatesmove?Theonlypersuasivetheoryisthattheyare pushed by convection currents in the mantle.That is, uneven heating, causedbymovementandfrictionnearthecore,orbylocalizedradioactivityinthemantle,leadtoup-swellingcurrentsinthesemi-fluidmantle, much as water boils in a pot.These currents, in areas of the most intenseboiling,pushthesurfaceplatesinpatternsthathaveobviously shiftedthroughtime.Itislikelythatconvectionpatterns,inthefuture, willbringthecontinentsbacktogether.Overthelastbillionyears,several suchmajorshiftsarenowidentifiable. The convective currents that redistribute continents also nourish earthquakesandvulcanism.Magmapushesupnearthesurface,orbreaks throughcompletelyinvolcanoes.Thisthermalactivitycreatesnewland at a pace that matches the loss of land by erosion or by the plunging downward of plates (subduction) at points of convergence. More important,iftheearthwerearadioactivelydeadplanet,withoutaninternal sourceofelectricity,unevenheating,andconvectivecurrents,itwould haveadifferentatmosphereandverydifferentmagneticfields.Without vulcanism,thecontinentswouldeventuallydissolveintheoceans,leavingnoland.Inasense,onesecretoflifeonearthisboththeheatwithin andthesun’sheatwithout,andhowtheymeshintheearth’scrust.2
OURMAGNETICSCREENS Evenmorecriticalforlifethanwhathappensinsidetheearthiswhatsurroundsthesurfaceoftheplanet—itsmagneticfieldsanditsatmosphere. Movingelectricalcharges(movingrelativetoastationaryobserver)createmagneticfields.Theearthissurroundedbyaverycomplexarrayof magneticfields,andtheseinturnhaveavitalrelationshiptolifeonearth. Itisimpossible,inashortspace,andwithoutabackgroundofverytechnicalknowledge,todescribethecauses,thelay,andtheeffectsofmagneticfields.Infact,muchofthisknowledgeisveryrecentinorigin,and muchisstillveryspeculative.Itisnowgenerallyacceptedthattheearth’s mainmagneticfield,theonedominantatthesurfaceandinthelower
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atmosphere,isalmostentirelyproducedbyelectricalcurrents(mostconcentrated around the equator) generated by the geomagnetic dynamo referredtoabove.Abovethemainmagneticfield,andinthemostminusculeremnantsofouratmosphere(intheionosphereorthermosphere, fromsixtytosixhundredmilesabovetheearth)thereareothersources ofelectricityandatleastthreeothermagneticfields,noneofwhichhas the rather stable, dipolar (meaning two poles of opposite charge) lay ofthemainfield.Theseionosphericfieldsdeflect,ortrap,mostofthe deadlyshortwaveradiationthatenterstheearth’satmosphere.Without theirscreeningeffect,mosttypesoflifethatwehaveonearthwouldbe impossible,includingallsurfacelife. Thedipolarorientationofthemainmagneticfieldraisescriticalissuesthatmayrelatetohumanwelfareandsurvival.Thismagneticfield issimilar,initslay,tothatofabarmagnetneartheearth’saxis,witha positive charge on one end, and a negative on the other. In the short term,thismagneticfieldisfairlystable,butyearbyyearthemagnetic axis,whichistodayabout11ofinclinationawayfromthegeographicalaxis,movesabout.Practically,thismeansthatthetwomagneticpoles move, requiring annual adjustments in compasses.The effects of such movementonlifearenotclear,ifthereareanyatall. This is not true for what has happened many times in the past—a reversalofpoles.Atpresent,andforthelast775,000years,thepositive polehasbeenatthesouth.Itmaysoonreverse.Suchreversalsoccuratirregularintervals,withmostpastreversalsoccurringatanaverageofabout every 200,000 years.Thus, a reversal is now overdue. No one can yet fullyexplainsuchreversals,butonlyspeculatethatsomethingaboutthe core,oritsgeomagneticdynamo,mayberesponsible.Thepastchanges arerevealedintheresidualmagnetisminrocks,andintheorientationof crystalsinbasaltandotherformsoflava.Itissuchcrystalsthatprovided theclinchingproofofcontinentaldrift,forwecandatethemovement ofcontinentsbysuchcrystallineorientation,givenourknowledge,from othersources,ofpastshiftsinthemagneticfield.Areversalcouldhave amajorimpactonlife,althoughwehavenoproofofsuchduringpast reversals(allbeforetheemergenceofHomosapiens).Itseemsthatareversaltakesplaceduringaperiodofuptofivethousandyears.Theforce ofthemain,dipolarmagneticfieldfirstweakens,withvariousanomalies andattimesmultiplepolestoreplacethenormaldipolarorientation(a compass would go crazy).After a period with little or no magnetism,
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TheSettingandtheChallenge
themagnetreformswithanoppositeorientation.Presently,thefieldis weakening,suggestingthatweareintheearlystagesofwhatwill,possiblywithinafewhundredorthousandyears,beanotherreversal.Thisis amatterofsomeconcern.Intheperiodwhenthedipolarfieldisweakest ornotpresent,moreshortwaveparticleswillreachtheearth’ssurface, forthemainmagneticfieldisafinalscreenforsuchparticles.Thisdoes notmeanthatalllifewouldbeendangered,fortheionospherewillstill trapmostsuchparticles.Butitwouldmeanincreasedradiation,witha likelihoodofmorecancer,possiblymajorgeneticeffects,andthelikely extinctionofsomespecies.Inotherwords,itmayposeaproblemforhumanscomparabletopresentozonedepletion,athinningwhich,because ofchemicalreactionsinthestratosphere,itwillenhance.Thereversalis aproblembeyondhumancontrol.Atpresent,noonehasidentifiedany correlationbetweensuchreversalsandotherphenomenon,suchasrapid climatechange. Itiseasiertoseeksuchclimatecorrelatesinperiodicdisturbancesor stormsthatimpactionosphericmagneticfields.Intruth,theionosphere isnevercompletelystable,onlymorestableatsomeperiodsthanothers. Floods of solar particles (the solar wind) are continuously interacting withupperatmosphericparticles,creatingionizedanddeadlyformsof radiation.Thefirstinteractionoftheearth’smagneticfieldswiththese incomingparticlesoccurswelloutsideofwhatmostconsidertheupper reachesoftheearth’satmosphere,orevenconventionaldefinitionsofthe ionosphere.Somenowrefertothiszoneasamagnetosphere.Here,as iftrappedbetweenmagneticfields,chargedparticlesaccumulate,with greatestconcentrationovertheequator,andthinningtowardeachpole (inasense,theybouncebackandforthbetweenthestrongermagnetic fieldsovereachpole).Firstidentifiedwithsatellites,thesearenowcalled theVanAllenradiationbelt.Thiszoneoftrappedandintenselyradioactiveparticlesisnotsharplylimited,eitherinspaceoraltitude,butdoes displaytwozonesofhighestconcentration.Theyareroughlybetweenten thousandandtwenty-threethousandmiles,withthemostintenseconcentrationtowardthelowerheight,andthenextmostintensetowardthe top.Thismakesupwhatcouldbecalledtwodoughnuts,eachverydangeroustoanyspaceexplorers.Thelowerbeltmaybeuniqueincapturing cosmicrays,theshortestandmostdeadlyformofradiation,andinthis caseradiationmostlyfromthelargeruniverse,notthesun.Themagnetic fieldconvertssuchradiationintoelectronsandprotons,andtrapsmostof
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theheavierprotons.Theouterbeltcontainsparticlesthatoriginatefrom thesunortheearth’satmosphere,mostbeingionizedformsofhelium. Thesebelts,howeverdangeroustohumanswhoenterthem,formwhat isprobablythefirst,andmaybethemostimportant,screenthatprotects theearthfromharmfulradiation,althoughtheroleoftheVanAllenbelts joinswiththescreeningthattakesplaceamongothermagneticfieldsin theionosphereandthescreeningoutofultravioletwavesbyozoneinthe stratosphere(seechapter5forafulldiscussionoftheroleofozone). Magneticstormsresultlargelyfromthesolarwind.Thisisnotatype ofelectromagneticradiation,butparticles(largelyprotons)emittedfrom thesunatgreatspeeds(butfarlessthanthespeedoflight).Theseparticlescollidewiththeearth’smagneticfields,creatingshockwaves.The sourceofthemostintensebombardmentofparticlesaresolarflares,or veryhotspotsthatdeveloponthesun’ssurface.Atthepointofaflare, thesurfaceheatofthesunsoarsfrom11,000to3.6millionF.Visual sunspotsresultfromlocalizedcoolingonthesun’ssurfacecausedbythe cloudsofgasandthemagneticstormsthataccompanyflares.Otherbursts ofthesolarwindresultfromthinareasofthesun’ssurface(solarholes). Itisthemoreintenseburstsofsolarwindthatnotonlyshiftanddistort globalmagneticfields,butspurmorelocalizedandoftenveryintense disturbances(substorms).Itisthelatterthathumansaremostawareof, intheaurora(northernandsouthernlights),inincreasedradiationat theearth’ssurface,inradiointerference,evenindistortionsofelectrical transmission.Fortunately,themostintensesolaractivityisperiodicand somewhatpredictable.Whatisnotknowniswhethertheroughlyelevenyearcyclesweresimilarinthepast.Thesemagneticstormsmay,because oftheincreasedradiation,poseadangertohumanhealth,buttheextent ofthedangerisnotclear.Atpresent,somespeculatethatglobalwarming might,inpart,becausedbyincreasedsolarradiationtiedtosolarflares. Any increase in the frequency or the intensity of such storms would, quiteclearly,increasetemperaturesontheearth’ssurface.3
THEEARTH’SATMOSPHERE Theearth’satmosphereiscriticaltolife.Byatmosphere,Imeanthegases thatexistabovetheearth’ssurface,andthefluids(waterdropletsinfog andclouds,andvariousotherdroplets,withsulfatesmostprominent) andsolids(icecrystals,soot,pollen,spores)suspendedinthesegases.
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Itisimpossibletosetanylimitstotheouterreachesoftheatmosphere. Hydrogenatomsarepresentnotonlybeyondthemagneticbelts,butalso ininterplanetaryspace.Aboveaboutsixtymiles,orthetopofthemesosphere(thirty-fivetosixtymiles),istheionosphere.Herethegasesare intheformofindividualatoms,andsothinastohavealmostnoeffect onspaceships.Yet,theouterpartsofouratmosphere,asindicatedabove, arecriticaltolife.Evenmoresoistheatmosphereclosesttotheearth’s surface,orthetroposphere(theairuptoanaverageofabouttenmiles, andmarkedbyagradualcoolingoftemperatureswithaltitude)andthe stratosphere(alayerofthinningair,fromabouttentothirty-fivemiles, wheretemperaturesincreasewithaltitude,largelybecauseoftheabsorptionofultravioletlightbyozone).Allweatherphenomenaoccurinthe troposphere. Theearlyearthhadanatmospherethat,atleast,allowedlifetodevelop. But in most ways it was not very congenial to life. It was very differentthantoday.Itwaslargelymadeupofcarbondioxide,methane, hydrogensulfide,andammonia.Itwasprobablylessdenseorheavythan today.Itincludedalmostnooxygen.Withoutoxygen,therecouldnotbe anyozone,amolecularformofoxygen.Thus,atthebeginningoflife, fewifanyformsoflifecouldwithstandtheultravioletbombardmentat thesurfaceofoceansorland.Butnonethelessthisearlyatmospherewas essentialtolife,becauseofitseffectonclimate.Ithelpedkeeptheearth warm, or almost too warm.The carbon dioxide and methane, joined withwatervapor,interceptedandabsorbedandreflectedbacklongwave radiationfromtheearth’ssurface,thuswarmingthenearbyatmosphere andtheearth’ssurface.Withoutthisgreenhouseeffect,mostsolarenergy wouldhavereturnedtospace,andtheearthwouldhavesteadilycooled untilallwaterfroze(thinkofMars).Butitscreenedalmosttoowell,with the earth much too hot (possibly near the boiling point of water) for mostformsoflifeasweknowittoday.Ifthisearlylevelofgreenhouse gaseshadnotdiminished,thegradualincreaseinsolarradiationmight haveeventuallyevaporatedalltheoceans,andlife,evenifalreadypresent, mightnothavesurvived(thinkofVenus). Nitrogen is the main component of the present atmosphere, but probablynotsoatthebeginning,whencarbondioxidewasmostlikely themostplentifulgas.Nitrogennowmakesupover78percentofthe stableanduniformgases(thiscalculationdoesnotincludenongaseous suspendedcomponentsorsuchvariablegasesaswatervaporandcarbon
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dioxide).Nitrogenisaverystablegas,andwithintherangeofnormal surfacetemperaturesonearthaninertgas(itdoesnotchemicallyinteract withotherelementsorcompounds).Butitdoeslargelyaccountforthe weightoftheair,andthusairpressure.Nitrogengasdoesreactchemicallyathightemperatures,formingvariouscompounds.Thus,lightning in storms converts nitrogen into nitrates, which mix with falling rain andhelpenrichthesoil.Certainorganismsalsointeractwithnitrogen, insomecasesreleasingnitrogenfromcompounds(theprobablesource ofmostatmosphericnitrogen),inothercasesconvertingnitrogeninto nitrates (as do the nodules of nitrogen-fixing bacteria on legumes). Throughartificialmeans,humansuseheattoconvertatmosphericnitrogenintonitratesusedinexplosivesandfertilizers. Argon, the third major ingredient of air (just less than 1 percent), isalsoinert.Notsothesecondlargestcomponent,oxygen(almost21 percent).Itreadilyformschemicalbondswithmanyelementsandcompounds,isanecessarysupportforcombustion,andisalsoanecessary componentoflife(butnotalwaysasatmosphericoxygen).Atleastahundredminorgasesaccountforlessthan0.01percentofstablegases.Some oftheseareimportant,fortheyaregreenhousegases(seechapter8). Thetwomostconcentrated,andimportant,variablegasesarewater vapor and carbon dioxide. In various ways, they are critical to life on earth.Watervaporisnecessaryforcondensationandprecipitation,and thusapartofthevitalhydrologiccycle.Itremainsintheatmospherefor onlyafewdays,ishighlyvariableinconcentration(asanyonewhosuffershighhumidityisaware),andcanmakeupasmuchas4percentof theatmosphereinhotandhumidclimates(warmaircanholdmorewatervapor).Carbondioxideisnecessaryforplantmetabolism,and,nextto watervapor,isthemostimportantgreenhousegas,althoughintoohigh concentrationsitisdeadlyforanimals(bydisplacingoxygen).Itvariesin concentrationovertime,buttodayisexceptionallyhigh,atleastincomparisontothelast120,000years,makingupoverone-thirdof1percent oftheatmosphere.Suspendedaerosolsandparticlesarealsocritical,for someoftheseprovidetheneedednucleusforraindrops.Manydustparticleshaveahumanorigin,asdoalargeproportionofthesulfatesthat contributetoacidrain. Oxygennowseemsastablecomponentoftheatmosphere.Butfree oxygenisdecreasing,althoughincomparisontoitsvolumeinminute amountseachyear.Thecauseistheincreasedburningoffossilfuels(the
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TheSettingandtheChallenge
oxygenusedincombustioncombineswithcarbontocreatecarbondioxide).Whentheearthfirstformed,over4.5billionyearsago,solardebrisfusedtogetherthroughgravity,andperhapsonlyfortuitouslysettled intoastableorbitaroundthesun(abalancingofgravityandcentrifugalforce).Otherplanetswerealsoforming,thesolarenvironmentwas turbulent,andmeteoritesandcometscontinuouslybombardedthenew planets.Life,asweknowit,couldnothaveexistedinthefirst600million years,butfortunatelyforwhatcamelater,thematuringearthveryearly, afteritsgiganticcollisionwithasmallerplanet,gainedasolidcrustand increasingamountsofwater(vulcanismfreedwaterfromdeepwithin theearth,whilemeteorsandcometsbroughtwaterfromouterspace). Earlylifehadtooriginateundergroundordeepinoceans.Onlylifeitself wouldeventuallyproducethepresentlevelofoxygen,andwithitthe stratosphericozoneneededtomakethesurfaceoftheearthhabitable. Lifeonearthbegancomparativelyearly,almostassoonasthedeadly meteorite bombardment slackened, or possibly as early as 3.9 billion yearsago.Wehavenoactualfossilsofmicroscopiclifegoingbackthis far, but early rock formations contain organic chemicals that have all thedistinctivecharacteristicsofalivingsource.Mostearlylifefoundits home in water, primarily the oceans, and would remain water-bound until comparatively recently, or to about 500 million years ago. Only thenwasenoughoxygenpresenttosupportanimallifeandtoprovide ozone protection. By 2.7 billion years ago, or possibly much earlier, ocean organisms had begun to use light (photosynthesis) to separate thehydrogenandoxygeninwater.Aproductofthisprocesswasfree oxygen,whichbubbledupfromtheoceans.By2billionyearsago,the atmosphere contained increasing amounts of oxygen, although not enoughtosustaincombustion.Soon,somestill-microscopicoceanorganismsbecamedependentonfreeoxygen.Theyweretheprototypeof lateranimals.By1.5billionyearsago,organismswithcellnuclei(eukaryotes),containingconcentratedstrandsofDNA,haddeveloped,and soon thereafter began sexual reproduction. But only in the immediate pre-Cambrianera(around700millionyearsago)didmulticelledorganismsevolve(worms,sponges,jellyfish).Then,intheCambrianera(570 million years ago), life radiated out in a rich profusion of multicelled organisms,ortheprogenitorsofmostlaterfungi,plants,andanimals, butmoststillremainedintheoceans.Withbetterozonescreening,such organismsbeganmovingtothesurfaceandonlandafter500million
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yearsago.Landplants,insects,evenearlyreptileswerejustahead.Inthe midstoftheageofdinosaurs,thefirstsmallmammalsevolved(by250 millionyearsago),ortheprogenitorsofhumans.Fromtheabundance ofplantlife,whichdependeduponatmosphericcarbondioxide,issued moreandmoreoxygen,withthequantityintheatmosphereeventually reachingtoday’slevel.4 Theearth’satmosphereisjustrightforlife,giventhedistancefrom thesunandthequantityofsolarradiationthatreachestheearth.Over halfthesun’senergyattheearth’ssurfaceisvisiblelight,anarrowpartof thetotalradiationspectrum.Visiblelightisjustontheshortwavesideof thisspectrum.Most,butnotall,oftheseshortwavesareabletopenetrate theatmosphere.Slightlyoverhalfofsolarradiationisreflectedbackinto space(bycloudsorwhitesurfaces),orabsorbedbythegasesintheupperatmosphere,helpingheatthem.Thelightwavesthatpenetrateheat thesurfaceoftheearth,butthewarmedearthradiatesheatwaves(infraredlight)backtowardspace,releasingtoomuchheattoallowfora life-supportingtemperaturewereitnotforafinalmagicalaspectofour atmosphere.Watervaporanddozensofminorgases(carbondioxideis themostimportantofthese)aretransparenttomostshorterlightwaves, butnottothelongheatwavesradiatedupfromtheearth.Thus,largely inthemiddleanduppertroposphere,thesegasesabsorbtheseheatwaves and,likeawarmblanket,radiateapartofthisheatbacktothesurface, furtherwarmingit. Exceptinareaswiththickclouds,whicharelikemirrorsandreflect alargepercentageofsunlight,theloweratmosphereduringthedaytime transmitsthesun’senergythathasnotbeenabsorbed,scattered,orreflectedbytheupperatmosphere.Nomorethan10percentoftheheating oftheatmosphereisadirectresultofabsorbedsunlight.Theother90 percentofwarmingreflectsthedirectwarmingofthesurfacebysolar radiation,plustheheatwavesradiatedbacktothesurfacebygreenhouse gases.Thissurfaceheatingisallimportant.Itisanunevenheating.Dark soilorvegetationabsorbsmorelightrays,andheatsmorerapidly.Light surfacesreflectmostoftheenergy,andheatslowlyifatall(snowisan excellent reflector). Land warms more rapidly than water, particularly deepareasofwater.Waterabsorbsmostsolarenergyonlywhenthesun isoverheadoratahighangle;itreflectsmostslantedlightwaves.When theenergydoespenetratethesurface,thewaterislargelytransparentto light,andthusthelightwavespenetratedeeply,warmingamuchthicker
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TheSettingandtheChallenge
layerthanitcanonopaqueland.Thus,agivenareaofsurfacewaterheats less. Watermovesandmixes,thusfurtherdissipatingheat.Ittakesupto fivetimesasmuchenergytoheataunitofwaterasformostsoilorrock. Thismeansthatthe71percentoftheearth’ssurfacethatisnowcovered bywater(itcoveredlessduringtheheightofthelateWisconsinglacier) makesagreatthermostat.Inthesummermonths,oceanwatermaygain onlyafifthoftheheatofnearbyland.Thereverseistrueinthewinter, whenitradiatesfivetimeslessheat.Thus,thevariationofwatertemperaturesfromwintertosummer,intheoceans,maybeonlytendegrees, whileatthesametimelanddifferentialsareashighasfiftydegreesor more.Ifitwerenotformovingcurrentsintheoceans,whichhelpequalizetemperaturesbetweentropicalandarcticareas,andthemovementof windoveroceansandontotheland,thelandareasoftheearthwouldbe muchhotterinthesummerandmuchcolderinthewinter.Thegreatest extremesoftemperaturethusexistattheheartoflarge,temperatezone continentallandmasses,thoseleastaffectedbyoceans.5 The unequal heating of earth surfaces accounts for regional differencesinairpressureandformovingair,orwind.Wind,plusunequal heatingandbottomseatopography,helpcreateoceancurrents.Thecomplex,oftenvastcirculationpatternsofwindandoceanwatersaffectthe variousclimatesonearth.Buttheenergybehindallthisisalwaysfrom thesun.(Seechapter7forafullerdiscussionofclimate.)
THEMAGICOFCHLOROPHYLL Whydidittakeover3billionyearsforlifeonearthtomovefromsingle-celledorganismstoallthecomplexplantsandanimalsoftoday,allof whichevolvedinonly500millionyears?Inarelativelybriefperiodof lessthan100millionyears,intheearlyCambrian,allpresentordersoflife radiatedoutinalldirections,creatinganecologyalmostasrichaswhat weknowtoday.BeforeDarwin,andbeforeweknewverymuchaboutpreCambrianlife,itwaseasyforthoseintheSemiticreligioustraditionto positacreativeactbyagodasthemiraculoussourceofallformsoflife, even when they conceded a subsequent amplification through natural processes.Whatisnowclearisthatitwaspre-Cambrianlifethat,overa verylongtime,finallycreatedtheenvironmentneededtosupportmore complexeukaryoteslikeourselves.Thatis,suchnewandmorecomplex
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formsoflifeneededacoolerearth(lessCO2intheatmosphere),enough freeoxygentosupportanimalmetabolism,and,forsurfacelife,enough stratosphericozonetoscreenoutmostultravioletlight.Ofcourse,much moreisinvolvedthanthis.Butsuchchangeswerenecessaryconditions for the Cambrian explosion.And at the heart of all these three modificationsoftheearth’senvironmentwasonecomplexbutrathersmall organicmolecule(orfourverycloselyrelatedmolecules).Wecallitchlorophyll. Wedonotknowwhenthefirstchlorophyllformed,probablyfrom precursormoleculesthatwerelightsensitive.Wethinkthattheearliest (and still prominent) photosynthesizers were cyanobacteria.They first turnedpartsoftheoceangreen,andtheystillcontributemuchofthe oxygenreleasedintotheatmosphereeachyear.Theiroriginmaygoback 3billionyearsormore.Beforephotosynthesis,bacteriahadgainedall theirenergynotdirectlyfromthesun,butchemicallyfrommineralsthat containedoxygen.Forallearlybacteria,whichlivedinanatmosphere withoutoxygen,anyfreeoxygenwouldhavebeenadeadlyenemy,as itstillis.Suchbacteriatodayliveinoxygen-free,ornearlyoxygen-free environments (an example are the bacteria that convert nitrogen into nitratesinair-tightnodulesontherootsoflegumes).Butfreeoxygen wasnoproblematthebeginningofphotosynthesis.Itdidnotyetexist, but was a product of the complex process fueled by photons of light. In time, the process led to present levels of oxygen, but charting the amount at any time in the distant past is all but impossible. Note that untiloxygenbecameatleast10percentoftheatmosphere,combustion wasimpossible.Ifitrisesabove25percent,fireisanever-presentdanger, andby35percentalmostallhydrocarbonswillspontaneouslycombust and terrestrial life will become impossible. Note also that until life- created hydrocarbons accumulated there was only minute amounts of fuelforcombustion.Itisinthissensethatlifecreatedthefoundationsof mostpresentenergyuse—thecontrolledburningofhydrocarbons,from thesugarsburnedinthebodiesofanimalstothegasolineburnedinthe pistonsofautomobileengines. Themostimportantchlorophyllmoleculesareattachedtothewalls ofbacteriaor,inmulticelledplants,toleafcells.These120-atommoleculesareumbrellashaped,withaflexiblestem.Theycollectphotonsof light(twopersecond)andfeedthemintoareactioncenter(likeasmall factory)inthecell.Theyabsorbmostofthelightspectrum,exceptgreen,
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TheSettingandtheChallenge
whichyieldsthecolorofchlorophyll.Inthereactioncenter,withother chlorophyllmoleculesplayingarole,thesolarenergyisusedtobreak waterintoitscomponentsofhydrogenandoxygen,whichisnomean feat.Leftoverfromthisprocessarefreeelectrons,whichprovidetheenergyforthesynthesisthatfollows.Alsounneededatthispointismuchof thefreedoxygen,whichisinfactverydangeroustoanaerobiclife,which canliveonlyinanoxygen-freeenvironment.Thecellusesthepreserved energytofusecarbondioxide,availablefromairorwater,withhydrogen tocreatecarbohydrates(C6H12O6),whichinturnarethemainsourceof energyfortheorganism.Thesameenergyalsocreatestheaminoacids andproteinsneededforbodystructures.Thus,photosynthesizersabsorb carbondioxide,usethecarbonasthemainstructuralcomponentofoftenverycomplexhydrocarbonmolecules,andexpeloxygen.Suchphotosynthesis,forthefirsttime,madepossiblenewformsofmicroscopic life.Asatmosphericoxygenincreasedtoacertainlevel,inabout200millionyears,thefirstoxygen-usingorganismsevolved,theprogenitorsof lateranimallife.Theycomplementedthephotosynthesizersbyabsorbing oxygenandrespiringcarbondioxide. Atmosphericoxygencreatedahazardforphotosynthesizingmicrobes andlaterplants.Thenew,freeoxygeneasilycombinedwithsomeofthe carbonincells,oratypeofplantrespiration,whichlimitedtheamount ofcarbonthatcouldgointosugarsandenzymes.Atpresent,mostplants cycleaboutathirdofthecarbondioxideusedinphotosynthesisback intotheatmosphere.Presentlevelsofoxygenandcarbondioxidereflect a near equilibrium between photosynthesis and respiration. Note that anyseverereductionofphotosynthesizers,andparticularlythoseinthe ocean,couldgraduallylowerthelevelofoxygenintheatmosphere,while globalwarmingcouldspeedupphotosynthesisandincreaseatmospheric oxygenunlessitledtoanincreaseinanimalsthatconsumeoxygen.6
THECYCLESTHATSUSTAINLIFE Recyclingisavitalaspectoflife.Infact,itisnecessaryfortheabundance anddiversityoflife-formsnowonearth.Forexample,withoutcycling, theearthwouldnotretainenoughavailablecarbonintheformofcarbondioxide.If99.5percentofthecarbondioxideusedinphotosynthesisandconvertedintoorganichydrocarbonswasnot,throughthework ofworms,fungus,andbacteria,consumedandrecycledbackintothe
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atmosphere,theprocesswouldhavesoonexhaustedthesupplyofcarbondioxideintheatmosphere.Asitis,only0.05percentofthecarbon dioxide involved in photosynthesis is permanently removed from the atmosphere.Itiseventuallydepositedonthebottomoftheoceanascarbonatesor,whenblendedwithcalcium-richshells,ascalciumcarbonate orlimestone.Ifallhadbecomerock,lifewould,atbest,havesettledinto alimitedniche,drawingenergyeitherfromchemicals(asalongdeepsea vents)orfromaverylimitedphotosynthesisfedbytheannualnetgain ofusablecarbondioxidecontributedbyvulcanism.Eventhelimitedlife supportedbythisnaturalinputwouldhavebeenprecarious,becausean atmospherestrippedofmostofitscarbondioxide,amajorgreenhouse gas,mightbetoocoldtosupportanylife.Also,theoxygencontributed bythislimitedphotosynthesiswouldnothavereachedthethresholdof combustionandanimalmetabolism.Wewouldnotbehere. Hereinsuchcyclingweconfrontoneofthehundredsoffactorsthat sustaincomplexformsoflife,orwhathasalwaysseemedtomanypeople thecontrivancesofadivinemind.Forscarceelementsneededbylife, suchasnitrogen(intheformofusablenitrates),thecyclingratioiseven higherthanforcarbon(atleastfivehundredatomsofnitrogenusedby plants are recycled back into water or air for every one sequestered). Withoutnitrogen-fixingbacteria,mostlyinoceanwaters,therewould notbeenoughnitratesforthepresentvolumeoflifeonearth.Forelementswithamoreplentifulsupply,suchasphosphorus,theratioisonly forty-sixtoone,whileforcalcium,whichisabundant,theratioisone toone,withlittleornorecycling.Human-inducedchangesinthesupply ofthedifferentelementsornutrientsrequiredforlifecanalterawhole communityoforganisms.Theuseoffertilizer,toincreaseyields,andto maintainyieldsyearafteryear,isoneexample.Another,perhapsmore momentousexampleistherapidusingupoffossilfuels,whichhasled tomajorshiftsintheearth’satmosphere. Theearthistheonlygreenplanetthatweknowabout,becauseitis theonlyknownplanetwithlife.Inthousandsofways,lifeandtheinorganicpartoftheearthinteract,mutuallyshapingeachother.AsIhave emphasized,lifehashelpedshapeouratmosphere,andvariousformsof cyclingmaintainitatitspresentnear-equilibrium.Lifevitallyinfluences climate,andevenlocalchangesinweather.Lifeenormouslyspeedsup themechanicalandchemicalweatheringofrocks,whichcreatesthebase ofsoils,whilelivingorganismsareacriticalcomponentofproductive
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soils.Microorganismsinsurethedecayofmostorganicmatter,including humanwaste.Allourfossilfuelsareadepositofpastlife.Lessobvious, lifeevenprovidessomeofthecomponentsofthemagmaextrudedby volcanoes. Today,theroleoflifeinshapingtheearth’sevolutionhastakenon anewaspect.Ofalltheinteractionsbetweenlifeandinorganicmatter, themostextensivenowinvolvespurposefulactionsbyhumans,theonly self-consciousformoflife.Neverbeforehasonespecieshadsuchenormouscontrolovernaturalprocesses.Whatthismaymeanforthefuture, whatmajorenvironmentalproblemshumanactionshavealreadycreated, isthesubjectoftherestofthisbook.7
2
Population,Consumption, andtheEnvironment
A
lmostanyconsiderationoftheearth’spresenthealth,oritsprospects duringthenextcentury,hastobeginwiththehumanpopulation. The doubling of the world’s population between 1960 and 2000, the 6.5 billion people on earth in 2006, and the prospect of 9 billion by 2050raiseinnumerableissuesaboutavailableresources,aboutthelevel ofpollutionandwaste,aboutmassiveextinctions,andaboutthequality ofhumanlifeincrowdedcities.Countrieswithnearlystableorevendecliningpopulationsdonotfacesomeoftheseproblems,butthesearethe verycountrieswiththehighestlevelsofconsumption,resourceuse,and emissions.Theyalsohaveeconomiesthatarepredicatedonacontinued growthinlivingstandards.Thepressuresontheearththuscomefrom bothdirections,fromthemultiplyingpoorandtheindulgentrich.
POPULATIONANDRESOURCES Itismuchtooearlytoassesswithanydegreeofassurancetheconsequencesofthepresentpopulationexplosion.Suchanewsurgeofpopulationgrowthisnotnew,butitspacehasbeenunprecedented.Thefirst surgemayhavebegunevenbeforetheevolutionofHomosapiens,when humanoidsfirstlearnedtocontrolfire.Thesecondsurgeinpopulation beganwhenhumansmovedfromhuntingandgatheringtothedomesticationofanimalsandtothecultivationofcrops.Thepresentsurgewas onlytheclimaxofamoregradualexpansionofpopulationinthemodernera,particularlyinthenineteenthcentury.Whatchangedisthatafter 23
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TheSettingandtheChallenge
1950somanytrendlinesturnedsharplyupward.Oneexampleiswhat happenedtoagricultureinthedevelopedcountries,andparticularlyin theUnitedStates,whereproductivityalmostdoubledfrom1950to1970 becauseofincreasedusesofchemicalsforfertilizerandpestcontrol,new andmoreproductivevarietiesofcrops,andtheuseoffossilfuelstopowerlargerandmoreefficientmachines.Thegreenrevolutionspread.Since 1970theworld’sproductionoffoodhasmorethandoubled.Without thisagriculturalrevolution,theearthsimplycouldnotfeedthepresent population,andinasenseisnotevenfeedingitwellinthepresent(over 800millionpeoplearehungrybecausetheyhavetosurviveatlessthan anoptimumlevelofnutrition). Afterpastintroductionsofnewtechnologies,thesubsequentgrowth of population soon leveled off. In effect, larger populations eventually probedtheexistinglimitsofsubsistence.Willthepresentpopulationexplosion soon level off? Obviously, the growth rate cannot continue at presentlevels,andisalreadyslowinginmostcountries,withworldwide annual growth rates down from 2.1 percent in 1970 to 1.14 percent in2004(seefigures1and2).Eventhe9billionexpectedby2050reflectsmorethana50percentdecreaseintherateofgrowthfromthatof thelasthalfofthetwentiethcentury.In2003,inthewakeoftheAIDS epidemic, the United Nations Population Division lowered its median estimatefor2050from9.3to8.9billion.Butinits2004revision,its mediumprojected2050populationisbackupto9.1billion.Even9billionpeoplewillpresentnewproblems.Infact,two-thirdsoftheworld’s populationisalreadypressingagainstsuchintractableresourcescarcities, andsuchenvironmentaldegradation,astomakeevenlowincomesdifficulttoincrease.Inthepoorestcountries,thegrowthofpopulationhas pushedbeyondthelimitsofeconomicgrowth,withableakfutureforsuch populationsinthefuture.Atleasteighteencountries,mostincentralAfrica,havesufferedanegativepercapitaincomegrowthinthelastdecade, andatleastthirtyothercountrieshaveenjoyedlittleifanygrowth,with anAIDSpandemicaggravatingalreadydesperateeconomicchallenges. Onemayobjectthatthepresentproblemsinpoorcountriesresultnot primarilyfrompopulationgrowth,butfromlowproductivitybasedona varietyofproblemsthatare,inprinciple,correctable—unstablegovernments,alackofeducationalopportunitiesandthusashortageofhuman capital,thesuppressionofwomen,alackofmoderntechnologyandthus greateconomicinefficiency,andaprimitiveagriculture.Demographers
7
Billions of People
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950
1960
1970
1980 Year
1990
2000
2010
Fig.1.Worldpopulation,1950–2004(datafromCensusBureau).(Worldwatch, VitalSigns2005,65.)
3.0
Percent Increase
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0 1950
1960
1970
1980 Year
1990
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Fig.2.Annualgrowthrateinworldpopulation,1950–2004(datafromCensus Bureau).(Worldwatch,VitalSigns2005,65.)
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TheSettingandtheChallenge
havelongpredicted,oratleasthoped,thatthesamedemographictransitionthatoccurredinEuropeandNorthAmerica—fromhighmortality andbirthrates,totechnologicalchangesthatledtobothprosperityand loweredmortalityrates,toafinalstagewithlowmortalityandthepresentlowfertilityrates—wouldbeduplicatedelsewhere.Butitmaynot bepossibletoduplicatesuchatransitioninmuchofcentralAfricaand southernAsia.Bycoercion,Chinahascomeclosetosuchatransitionto lowfertilitydespitelowpercapitaincomes.Elsewhere,loweredfertility rateshaveaccompaniedhigherincomes,buthavedroppedonlyslowly ornotatallforverylow-incomefamilies.Thetransitionhastakenplace only among elites.The only likely way to gain something close to replacementlevelfertilityinmuchoftheworldseemstodependonrapid economicgrowth.Butitissimplyimpossibletoimaginethenaturalresources—water,soil,energy—thatwouldallowthesecrowdedcountries togainlivingstandardscomparabletothoseinwesternEurope,atleast shortofmagicalnewtechnologies,suchascheapandplentifulfusion energy.And even if they attained such a level of prosperity, and their populationleveledoffatnomorethanathirdabovepresentlevels,one wondersaboutthequalityoflifepossibleinsuchacrowdedworld. From a worldwide perspective, the earth probably has enough resourcestofeed9billionpeople,evenwithpresentagriculturalknowledgeandtools.Thismaybesmallconsolationtopoorcountriesthathave nowaytomeettheirownfoodneeds.Theearthhasenoughfossilfuelsto lastforthenextfiftyyears,evenatthepresentannuallyincreasedrateof use.Thismaybesmallconsolationtothetwo-thirdsoftheearth’spopulationthathave,sofar,consumedasmallshareofsuchfuels,buthave beendirelyaffectedbytheglobalimpact,includingrecentwarming,due totheproductionandconsumptioninwealthycountries. WiththesoleexceptionoftheUnitedStates,thepopulationofthe twenty-threewealthiestcountries,orthosewitha2002percapitaGross NationalIncome(GNI)ofover$15,000,orapproximately15percentof thetotal,isstableordeclining.TheU.S.CensusBureaupredictsthatby 2025allthenetpopulationincreasewillbeintherecentlypoorercountries,anduntilthen98percentwillbeinsuchcountries(muchofthe other2percentwillbeintheUnitedStates).Bythenthe20percentof theworldpopulationnowlivinginwhattheUnitedNationsdesignates asdevelopedcountries(roughlythosewithapresentpercapitaGDPof over$10,000)willdropto15percent.
Population,Consumption,andtheEnvironment
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Thismeansthatpresentdemographicimbalanceswillincrease,witha veryhighpercentageofpeopleoversixty-fiveyearsoldinaffluentcountries,averysmallbaseofyouthunderfifteen,andashortageofworking-agepeople.Inpoorercountries,atpresent,from40to50percentof thetotalpopulationisunderfifteenyearsold,withthepopulationover sixtyrangingfromonly3to7percent.Over90percentoftheirdependentpopulationisunderfifteen.Thehugebulgeofchild-bearingwomen in the near future assures a continued population growth for the next threedecadesdespitedecliningbirthrates.Conversely,inthemostaffluentcountriesthepopulationunderfifteenisonly14–20percent,except intheUnitedStates(21.8percent),thepopulationoversixtyfrom20to 25percent,exceptintheUnitedStates(16.1percent).Theonlymeans ofcorrectingsuchdemographicimbalanceswouldbeaspeedupofthe presentoutsourcingofworktounderdevelopedcountriesandamajor migration of working-age people from the underdeveloped countries intothelabor-shortdevelopedworld,amigrationthathasalreadyhada majorinfluenceonthepopulationoftheUnitedStates.1
SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT Todaytheverbalmantra“sustainabledevelopment”isaloadedphrase. Everyonesupportsit,butfewdefineitinexactlythesamewayorhonestlyprobeitsimplications.Thecentralideaisanoldone,atleastamong economists.Ifpeoplearetoremainprosperousoveralongtime,they mustdevelopandpreservetheirtoolsofproduction,orcapital.Otherwise, theywillsoonuseupcapitalandfacedecliningreturnsandultimately bankruptcy.Today, environmentalists have extended this understanding ofthevitalroleofhuman-madetoolstonon-human-createdgoods,such assoil,water,air,andfuels.Economicgrowth,bothindevelopedcountriesandpoorcountries,willbeself-defeatingifitinvolvesausingupof nonrenewableresources,suchasfossilfuels,orasteadydrawdownof renewableresources,suchasforestsorsoilnutrients. For nonrenewable resources, with fossil fuels by far the most important, humans cannot avoid a continued draw down, at least in the nearfuture.Inthiscase,themandateofsustainabilityrequiresenough researchanddevelopmentinthepresenttofindrenewablereplacements forfossilfuelsbeforetheyareexhausted.Finally,humansmustnotemit morepollutantsthantheenvironmentcansafelyassimilate.Today,inno
28
TheSettingandtheChallenge
areaoftheworldareeconomiesevenclosetomeetingthesegoals.Poor countries,bynecessity,arerapidlyusinguprenewableresources,while thewealthofaffluentcountriesdependsuponthepastandcontinuing exploitationoftheworld’sdwindlingreserveoffossilfuels. Thegoalsofsustainabilityarenotnew.Humanconcernsaboutscarce resources,andaboutenvironmentaldegradation,reachbacktothedawn ofcivilization.Prehistoricpeopleattimeswereunabletoadjusttoenvironmentalchange,suchascyclesofdrought,orpressedtoostrongly againstscarceresourcesandsufferedfamine,populationdecline,andcultural bankruptcy. Few present environmental concerns are new, except thosecreatedbynewtechnologies(suchasozone-depletingchemicals). Butbecauseofthepopulationexplosion,neverbeforehavesomanyenvironmentalproblemsbeenglobalintheirimplications(globalwarming, massiveextinctionsofspecies,rainforestdestruction,acidrain,ocean pollution)andsodifficultbothtounderstandandtomitigate. Sustaineddevelopment,totheextentthatitmeanseconomicgrowth, posesthemostdifficultchallengeforpoorercountries.In2004,themost wealthytwentycountries,withapercapitaGrossNationalIncome(GNI, orwhatwasformerlycalledGNP)ofover$25,000incurrentU.S.dollars (excludingtinynationslikeLichtenstein),madeuplessthan15percent oftheworld’spopulation,buttheycontrolled72percentoftheworld’s totalincome.TheUnitedStatesaloneaccountedfor30percentofthisincome.ThelistofthetwentymostwealthycountriesincludestheUnited StatesandCanada,Australia,fifteenwesternEuropeancountries,andonly JapanandHongKonginAsia.ItincludesnocountriesinAfricaorLatin America,andnocountryfromtheformerSovietbloc.Infact,noneof theseareashaveanycountriesamongtheadditionalninenationswith incomesabove$15,000,ornationsusuallyincludedamonglistsof“developed”countries.Slovenia,fromtheformerYugoslavia,isamongthe shortlistofsixcountrieswithincomesbetween$10,000and$15,000, orcountriessometimeslistedaseitherdevelopedoremerging. Comparisons of per capita GNI is necessarily tied to world prices and to exchange rates among world currencies.The per capita GNI of SierraLeone,forexample,reflectshowmanyproductsanaveragecitizencouldbuyontheinternationalmarket,andinthiscaseveryfew,for itspercapitaGNIisonly$190.OnthebasisofpercapitaGNI,around seventeencountrieshaveincomesbetween$5,000and$10,000.Afew ofthosearegrowingrapidly,andmaysooncrossthe$10,000threshold,
Population,Consumption,andtheEnvironment
29
particularly the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Mexico.All the roughly 130countrieswithincomesbelow$5,000,orlessthananeighthofthe income in the United States, are relatively poor, but among the nineteenwithincomesover$3,000aresomemajorworldpowers,including Russia,Turkey,SouthAfrica,andBrazil.Theremaining110countries,all withincomesunder$3,000,includeovertwo-thirdsoftheworld’stotal population,forChina($1,500)andIndia($620)areamongthem,as wellassuchotherpopulouscountriesasIndonesia,Pakistan,Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Sudan.At the very bottom are those fifty or so countries withincomesbelow$500.2 Yet,therankingofcountriesonthebasisofGNIcanbeverymisleading.Thisisobviouswhenonetriestodeterminehowanyonecouldsurviveintheapproximatelythirty-fivecountrieswithincomesoflessthan $400ayear,orinthelowestofall,Burundi,on$90ayear.IntheUnited States,apersoncouldnotsurviveforaweekwiththatincome.Thus,today,thefairestandincreasinglymostoftencitedincomefigureiswhatis calledthePurchasingPowerParityincome,orwhatIwillrefertoasPPP. Insteadofcurrencyexchangerates,thisisbasedonasurveyofthecostof hundredsofgoodsandservicesinthelocalcurrency.Itincludesstatistical conversionsthatcomeascloseaspossibletoestimatingtherealincome among countries. In poor countries, generally, the cost of local foodstuffs,andaboveallofhumanservices,tendstobeverylow,unbelievably lowwhentranslatedintodollars.Intermsoflocalpurchasingpowerand livingstandards,suchcurrenciesaredrasticallyundervaluedinexchange rates.ThePPPcorrectsforthis,andformostpoorcountriesitisasmuch asfivetimeshigherthanthepercapitaGDP.Forexample,inIndiathe GDPin2004wasonly$620,butthePPPwas$3,100;inboomingChina theGDPwas$1,500,whileitsPPPwas$5,890.Atthehigherincomes, thechangesfromGDPtoPPParesmall,andinsomecasesthePPPlower (dramaticallysoforNorwayandSwitzerland).Butasonemovesdown theGDP,thegapbetweenGDPandPPPbecomesmorepronounced. In 2004, approximately thirty countries had a PPP over $20,000 (onlytwentyofthesehadapopulationofover1million,butnotably, sometinycountriesareamongthemostwealthy,withLuxemburgalways atthetop).Thesemostaffluentcountriesgenerallyduplicatethepresent thirtycountriesthataremembersoftheOrganizationofEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OCED),butnotexactly,sincesomelower incomecountries(Mexico,Turkey)areinthiseliteorganization.Twenty-
30
TheSettingandtheChallenge
twoadditionalcountries,someverysmall,hadaPPPofover$10,000, orroughlythepovertylevelforasinglepersonintheUnitedStates.This meansthattheirlivingstandardsrangefromone-fourthtoone-halfthat oftheUnitedStates(whichhasaPPPofjustunder$40,000).Thesetwo groupstotaljustover1.222billion,orbarely18.5percentoftheworld’s totalpopulation.Atleastmostofthesearegenerallylistedasdeveloped orindustrializedcountries.Theexceptionwouldbeafewcountriesthat gainahighrankinincomesonlybecauseoftheexportationofoil.But somecountriesalmostalwayslistedamongindustrializedordeveloped countriesarenotintheabove$10,000PPPgroup,andthisincludesRussia.Alsonotethatmuchofthisdataisbasedupontheself-reportingof countries,andmayslightlyoverestimateincomes.Also,insomenations, particularlyoil-richcountries,incomesaresoskewedtowardafewatthe topastoleavethegreatmassofcitizensatverylowincomes. AroundfortycountrieshaveaPPPof$5,000to$10,000.Thismeans thatlivingstandardsrangefromone-eighthtoone-fourthofthoseinthe UnitedStates.Someofthesecountriesareoftenlistedashavingemergingeconomies,forsomemaysooncrossthethresholdof$10,000(Russia,Mexico,Brazil,Thailand,andTurkeyarethebestcandidates).Other quitepopulouscountriesinthislist(Philippines,Ukraine)arefarfrom thisgoalof$10,000,asarethe1.3billionpeopleofChina,whohave PPPincomesnear$6,000.Thesefortycountries,rangingfromnearpoor toemergent,contain2.34billionpeople,or36percentoftheworld’s population(overhalfinChina). Almost3billionpeoplehavePPPincomesofunder$5,000inninetytwocountries,someverysmall.Whatevertheeuphemismsusedtodescribethem(suchasunderdeveloped),thosecountriesaresimplypoor. Mosthavelittleearlyprospectsofmovingabove$5,000PPP.Buteven here, those close to $5,000 are worlds apart from those at the lowest level.Noneoftheseaspirantsareinsub-SaharanAfrica.Albania,Armenia,ElSalvador,andParaguayareabove$4,500,withEgypt,Guatemala, Jamaica,Jordan,Morocco,andSurinamabove$4,000.Indiaisaspecial case.Its1.08billionpeoplemakeupoverathirdofthosewithincomes below $5,000. By its own accounting, its PPP had risen to $3,100 in 2004,anditsannualgrowthrateisveryhigh.Itisconceivablethat,in anotherdecadeorso,itwillreachthe$5,000level.Atotaloffortycountrieshaveincomesbetween$2,000and$5,000,whilefifty-twocountries are below $2,000.These make up the poorest of the poor, with
Population,Consumption,andtheEnvironment
31
Income Ratio (Top 20% of Population/Bottom 20%)
thirty-twoinsub-SaharanAfrica,aboutadozeninAsia,andonlyHaiti intheWesternHemisphere.Theothersaresmallislandrepublics.Fifteen Africancountriesareat$1,000orbelow(SierraLeoneandSomaliaare atthebottomat$600).ThetwomostpopulousAfricancountries—NigeriaandEthiopia—areinthisgroup.Itisdifficulttoconceiveofpeople surviving on one-fortieth the average purchasing power ofAmericans. Compoundingtheproblemisthatincomesinthesepoorestcountriesare oftenconcentratedinsmallelites. AveragePPPlevelsmaybeverymisleadingifoneisconcernedabout theoverallwelfareofapopulation.Vitallyimportantisincomedistribution,orthedegreeofincomeequality.Thebestindicatorofthegeneral welfare of a population might be the average per capita PPP of those whosufferthelowest20percentofincomes.Unfortunately,incomeinequality is usually greater in poor countries than it is in affluent ones (seefigure3).Welfareincludesseveralfactors,somenottiedtoincome. 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Latin America and Caribbean
SubSaharan Africa
Developing Asia
Eastern Europe/ Former Soviet Union
Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development
Fig. 3. Income inequality within regions (data from World Bank). (United Nations,GlobalChallenge,GlobalOpportunity,7.)
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TheSettingandtheChallenge
Theseincludelifeexpectancy,lowinfantmortalityrates,universalaccess tohealthcareandeducation,politicalstability,lowcrimerates,accessto work,genderequality,andcleanairandwater.Inthelastdecade,notonly hasthegapbetweenaffluentandpoorcountrieswidened,buteveninmost industrialcountriesincomeinequalityhasrisenatfrighteningrates.Worst ofall,amongwealthynations,istheUnitedStates,inwhich,in2000,over 30percentofallincomewenttothetop10percent,only1.8percentto thebottom10percent.Thishasworsenedsince2000.Suchincomeinequalityisonereasonwhy,inmostattemptstomeasureoverallwelfare, theUnitedStatesranksbelowmostwesternEuropeancountries. ThePPPcanalsomisssomeeconomicbasesofagoodlife.Mostservicesperformedbyhomemakersandmothersdonotmakeitintothese accounts.Localbartertransactionsandblackmarketsales(hugeinsome countries)arenotcounted.Thus,particularlyinthepoorestcountries,even thePPPmaysomewhatunderestimatetheactuallevelofconsumption. Inonecriticalway,nationalaccountingindicesalmostalwaysoverstatetheactuallevelofmaterialwelfare.Thisiswhatmostconcernsenvironmentalists.Nosuchofficialestimatesnowincludenaturalcapital,and thustheenvironmentalcostsofproductionandconsumption.Becauseof this,thepresentlevelsofincomearenotsustainableoverthelongterm inmostpoorcountries,andnoteveninwealthycountrieswithoutmajor substitutionsofnewtypesofenergyandmoredrasticcontrolsoverpollution.Already,increasingamountsofcapitalandlaborhavetobedevoted toenvironmentalrepairwork,ortheproductofpast,oftenrecklessuse ofresourcesandthepollutionofairandwater.Insomeunderdeveloped countries,ifonedeductedtheannuallossofsoil,offorestcover,andof endangeredspecies,thenthesustainablePPPmightmovetowardzero. In highly developed and wealthy countries, such as the United States, the loss of natural capital might be only a small percentage of the total.Butthelackofmorespecificityaboutsuchcostssimplyreflectsthe enormousdifficultyofmeasuringthemonetaryvalueofnaturalcapital. Forexample,ifoneassumesthatglobaltemperaturesriseby5Cinthe nextcentury,thenwhatwillbethecosttotheworldeconomy?Itcould bevast,butwewillnotsoonknowenoughtoevencomeclosetoafirm estimate.AndwhatshouldtheUnitedStates,whichcontributesalmost one-fourthofthegreenhousegasesthatarehelpingproducesuchwarming,deductfromitspresentGDPinordertomorerealisticallydocument itsrealannualincomeinsustainabilityterms?Nooneknows.
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33
TheUnitedNationsmaintainsaSystemofNationalAccountsaspart ofitsaccountingdivision.In1993,asadirectresponsetopoliciesadoptedattheEarthSummitinRioin1992,theUnitedNationstriedto findawaytoincorporateenvironmentalcostsintonationalaccounting. ThiswouldhavemeantarevisioninsuchcategoriesasGNIorGDP.The problemwasstaggeringinitscomplexity,andnorevisionresulted,but itdidleadtoarecommendationthattheUnitedNationsatleastwork towardsuchagoalandaddsupplementalorsatelliteaccountstoaddress theenvironmentalissue.3Sincethen,economistshavedevelopedvarious strategiestogainanewSustainableNationalIncomeindex.4InSeptember2005,theWorldBanksuggestedthatnationalaccountsincludecertainnaturalresources,whichoftenmakeupthelargestshareofwealthin poorcountries.Unfortunately,itisthesecountriesthataremostrapidly exporting,orusingup,theirnaturalassets. Fewwoulddenythatthepresentnationalaccountingisoutdatedand misleading,butsofartheproblemhasremainedaverycomplex,highlytechnical,academicenterprise,withvariouscontentingfactions.The mostlimitedadditionwouldinvolveonlynaturalresourcesthatalready havemarketpricesattachedtothem,suchasminerals,oil,andevensoil. China, facing enormous environmental challenges, is the first country thatisnowplanningatypeofnationalaccountingthatincludesenvironmental assets.The larger problem is accounting for life-supporting resourcesthatarestillpartofthecommons,suchasoceans,streams,lakes, ortheatmosphere.Also,howcouldasystemofnationalaccountsinclude globalenvironmentalcosts.HowcouldtheUnitedStatescalculate,and how should it pay for, its contribution to the depletion of the ozone layer,tooceanpollution,eventotheacidrainthatfallsonCanadianforestsandlakes?Howcouldwealthyimportingcountriesaccountforthe environmentaldegradationtheycauseintheunderdevelopedproducing country?Whatistokeepwealthycountriesfromimportingproductsthat createenvironmentalhazardsabroadorexportingtheirowntoxicwastes? Suchissuesimplicateasystemofinternationalaccountsthatwould,in proportionateways,havetobeincorporatedintonationalaccounts,and onecansensethelevelofinternationalconflictthatmightensueifthe UnitedNationsorregionalagenciestriedtoimplementsuchasystem. Equallydifficultisanywayofpricingtheestheticbenefitsofpristine forestsandlakes,theopportunitytovisitwildernessareas,theabilityto enjoythreatenedspeciesofbirds.Onemightpollcitizensandfindout
34
TheSettingandtheChallenge
howmuchtheywouldbewillingtopayintaxeseachyeartopreserve such amenities, and on this basis give a monetary value to them. Or one might assume that present governmental resource regulations and reserves,andthecoststhatgowiththem,roughlyindicatethevalueits citizensplaceonsuchamenities.Butsuchmeasurementsaremeaningless in poor countries that cannot afford such taxes or cannot enforce environmentalregulations.Totheextentthatthepeopleofonecountry valuehabitatsandbiodiversityinotherareasoftheworld,particularly poorareas,theyshouldbewillingtocontributetotheforeignaidneeded fortheirpreservation.5
THESPECIALENVIRONMENTALCHALLENGES FACEDBYPOORCOUNTRIES Forthevastmajorityofhumans,wholiveatanearsubsistencelevel,such issuesassustainabilitymustseemremote.Theirgreatimperativehasto behigherrates of productivity and increased consumption, whatever the long-term environmental costs. Given the large and usually still growingpopulationinpoorcountries,thisisanintimidatinggoal.Already,theassaultsonlocalenvironmentshavetoooftenreachedcrisis proportions,somuchsothatanysustainedgrowthinincomesseems almostimpossible.Yet,theassetsavailable,inhumancapital,insources offinancing,inavailabletoolsofproduction,aremeageratbest,save for India and China, both of which have a large, university-trained workforce.Althoughmostpoorcountrieshavetriedtodealwithenvironmentalproblems,andinsomecaseshavehadtodoso,theyhave lackedtheresources,orthepoliticallegitimacy,toenforceenvironmental legislation. Itisdifficulttoseehowpoorcountriescanalleviatemostofthese problemsinthenear,oreventhedistant,future.Theserunthegamutof environmentalpressures:depletedfuels,erodedland,disappearingforest cover,threatenedoralreadyextinctspecies,uncontrolledurbangrowth, pollutedairandwater,andascarcityofpotablewaterorwaterforirrigation.Suchpoorcountrieshavefewtoolstocopewithsuchproblems. Burdenedbydebts,bylowmarketpricesforexportablecommodities,by politicalinstability,theyareallbuthelplesswithoutmajorsubsidiesfrom wealthycountries.Inpartbecauseofthehighlysubsidizedandprotected agriculture in the wealthy countries, they cannot even sell most food
Population,Consumption,andtheEnvironment
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productsontheworldmarket.Tomakethesituationevenmorecruel, theysimplywillnotbeabletoretracethepathsofeconomicgrowth followedbyEurope,America,andJapan.Notenougheasilyavailableor inexpensiveresourcesremainforthemtodoso.Andeveniftheytry, environmental constraints will soon halt such growth—often not by anyfaultoftheirown,butbecauseofthelegacyleftbyrapidgrowth elsewhere.6 Since1850,andatanacceleratingpacesince1950,theindustrialized nations have attained a level of production of goods and services undreamedofinthehumanpast.In2000,acensusyear,theUnitedStates illustratedthisconsumptivelargesse.ItenjoyedaGNIofnearly$10trillion (1996 dollars). In the previous year, its citizens had a disposable (afterdepreciationofcapitalandtaxes)incomeofcloseto$6trillion. ItsagriculturewassoproductivethatAmericanshadtospendjustover8 percentofthisincomeforfoodusedathome,orwhatcostsover50percentofincomeinsomepoorcountries.Itspentovertwicethisamount forhousingandhouseholdoperationandonmedicalcare,athirdmore onitsautomobiles,andaneighthmoreforrecreation.Americanseven spent over $80 billion on jewelry and personal care products, such as cosmetics.EachAmericanspent,onaverage,about$2,300onrecreation, oralmostasmuchasthePPPofIndia. Onekeytothisincreasedproductivityhasbeenthereplacementof muscle power by other forms of energy, mainly from the controlled burningoffossilfuels.Anothernecessaryconditionhasbeenthedevelopmentofnewtoolsandtechniquesofproduction,andthusevergreater efficiency.Thishaspaidoffmostofallinagriculture,byfarthemostefficientsectorinaffluentcountriestoday(thesmallestinputoflaborforthe output).Increasingly,thesourcesoffuels,timber,minerals,andtropical foodstosustainthisrapidgrowthhavebeenthelessdevelopedareasof theworld.Forexample,Americanshavenotonlydrawndowntheirresources,suchasoilandgas,butthoseoftheworldasawhole.Wealthy countries less favored by natural resources, such as Japan and Britain, havebeenalmostcompletelydependentonsuchforeignresources.Poor countrieshavenotbeeninapositiontoresisttheout-shipmentofpreciousresources,thelossoftheirnaturalcapital.Theyhavedependedon theincomeforgrowingpopulations.Withoutamarketforunprocessed goods,fewunderdevelopedcountriescouldbegintosupporttheirexistingpopulation.Theyaredependenteitherontradeoraid.Onecanonly
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TheSettingandtheChallenge
wonderwhatNigeriawilldowhenitsoilrunsout,givenitsengorged populationandunderdevelopedagriculture. Almostallpoorcountrieshavetriedtofollowdevelopmentpatterns thatsucceededinthewealthycountries,butonlyafewhavedoneenough toimproveagriculturalproduction.Mosthavetriedtointroducelaborintensiveformsofmanufacturing,withtextilesofteninthelead.And, indeed, as measured by present national income indices, most former colonial nations have enjoyed at least low levels of economic growth. Foreignaidandthegreenrevolutionhavekeptsucheconomiesgrowing. Atleastaminorityofthepopulationhasbenefitted,withadegreeofaffluenceeasilyvisibleinfavoredareasofgrowingcities.Whetheroverall humanwelfarehasimprovedisimpossibletomeasure,butonecanharbordoubtsthatithas. WhatcanpoornationsdotomovetowardWesternlivingstandards? Theycannotemulatethepasthistoryofthemostindustrializednations. Fewhavetheneededresourcesathome,andtheycannotaffordtoimport them, particularly energy. Population pressures have already decimatedforests,erodedland,andexhaustedlocalsuppliesoffuelevenfor cooking.Hungrypeasantsencroachuponparksandwildlifepreserves, desperateforland,wood,orgame.Othershaveoverfishedincreasingly pollutedstreams,evenasindustrializednationshavejoinedinoverfishinghalftheworld’soceans.Agriculturalreformmightimprovefoodproduction,butonlybydisplacingmostnear-subsistencefarmers.Fewpoor countries have the money or credit or needed skills to develop profitablemanufacturing,andthushavetodependonforeigncapital.Cheap laborisoftentheirlureforforeigninvestment.Tropicalcountrieshave toexportafewcommerciallyimportantfoodstuffs,ortheirdwindling reservesoftimber,oil,gas,orminerals.Increasingly,sub-SaharanAfrica dependsuponimportedfoods.Suchcountriescannotaffordtoattendto developingenvironmentalproblems. Inthelasttwodecades,thedominantenvironmentalconcernsinthe wealthynationshaveshiftedtowardglobalissues.Thislargelyinvolves thepastroleofindustrializedsocietiesincreatingtheproblemsthatare nowmanifestintheunderdevelopedworld,andtheirresponsibilityin mitigatingsuchglobalproblemsasatmosphericwarmingand,withit, climatechange;tropicaldeforestationand,withit,alossofbiodiversity; andthelikelihoodofincreasedfaminesbecauseofdegradedsoilsand scarcitiesofwaterandenergy.Inasense,thegreatoverarchingproblem
Population,Consumption,andtheEnvironment
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forpoorcountriesiscontinuedrapidpopulationgrowth,aproblemthat wealthycountries,withstableordecliningpopulations,candolittleto influencefromadistance.
ENVIRONMENTALMITIGATIONINWEALTHYCOUNTRIES Inmostrespects,thecitizensofthetwentymostwealthycountriesnow enjoythefruitsofacenturyofenvironmentalmitigation.Astheylookat theirimmediatesurroundings,theyseeproblemsaplenty,butnothingto comparetotheevenrecentpast.Onlyfortyyearsago,peopleeverywhere had to fear the effects of nuclear fallout from the testing of over two thousandbombsbycoldwarantagonists.Nomore,althoughsomestill fearaccidentsatnuclearreactors.Intheearlytwentiethcentury,European andAmericancities,inthewinter,sufferedhorriblesmogandsootfrom thealmostuniversalheatingbycoal.Nomore,althoughthecontinued useofcoalforelectricalgenerationcontributestosmog,acidrain,and global warming.A century ago almost all human and industrial waste wasdumped,untreated,inriversandoceans.Nomoreinwealthycountries,althoughproblemsofwastedisposalstillhauntthem. Intheearlytwentiethcentury,farmersintheUnitedStateswerestill clearing forests and increasing the land cultivated, while erosion, by windandwater,wasrife(thinkofthedustbowlortheredhillsidesof theSoutheast).Nomore.DespiteatriplingofpopulationintheUnited Statessince1900,andafourfoldincreaseinagriculturalproduction,the amountofcultivatedlandhasdeclinedbyathird,andtheforestcoveris nowmoreextensivethanin1900.Fewnowremembertheuglinessof factorytowns,orthetenementsoflargecities,ortheunpaintedshacks ofsharecroppers,orwhencitystreetsranwiththemanureandurineof horses.Epidemicsofwater-bornediseases(typhoid,cholera)werestill presentin1900.Whaleswerebecomingendangeredspeciesbecauseof overhunting,whilethelastpassengerpigeondiedinaCincinnatizooin 1914.Americanscameclosetokillingtheirlastbison.Leadwasabasic ingredientofpaints,andsoonalsoofgasoline.Icouldgoonandon,if needed,toprovethatforwealthycountries,frommanyenvironmental perspectives, the past was far worse than the present. But who doubts thatfact? Thepeopleoftheunderdevelopedworldrightlyenvytheprosperity oftheindustrializedworld,whichisbeyondtheirreach.Theyalsovalue
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TheSettingandtheChallenge
itsabilitytocopewithenvironmentalproblems,whichisevenmorebeyondtheirreach.Insomanyareas,environmentalregulationsandnew technologies of production have mitigated environmental problems in spiteofincreasesinpopulationandanevenmorerapidincreaseinper capitaconsumption.Notcompletely,ofcourse,aspresentAmericanrealitiestestify. Americansuseenergymoreefficientlythaninthepast.Theyhavereducedthecarbonintensityoffuelastheymovedfromwood,tocoal,to oil,andtogas(thegenerationofelectricitybynaturalgasemits50times lesscarbondioxide,perunitofheat,thanawood-burningstove).Yet, theystillemitmorecarbonthaneverbefore.Thisisafunctionofincreasesinpopulationand,evenmore,consumption.Americanshavereduced the emission of sulfur compounds, and in a very limited way nitrous oxides,buttheystillsufferfromairpollutionandacidrain.Theyhavereducedmostoftherisksofwastedisposal,buttheyareoverwhelmedwith its volume. By great effort, they have saved many endangered species fromextinction,butsomehabitatlosseshaveeffectivelyendedanybut isolatedenclaves.Theyhaveincreased,ataratemuchhigherthanpopulation growth, the amount of land preserved in parks and wilderness areas,nationalandstateforests,andwildlifesanctuaries,butnothingcan relievethepressureofmoreandmorevisitorstosuchsites,afunctionof numbers,affluence,cheaptransportation,andamuchmorewidespread publicappreciationoftheoutdoors.Atgreateffortandgreatcost,they haveimprovedairqualityinmostareasofthecountry,andwaterqualityinsomeareas,butagainthesheernumbersandagrowingusehave imperiled precious aquifers and threatened overused streams. Because of a thousand new chemicals, and new products, they have pushed at leasttraceamountsofnewcompoundsintotheatmosphere,oftenwith unknownrisks.Butasawhole,environmentallycausedhumanmortality seemstobeatthelowestlevelinhumanhistoryindevelopedcountries, nomeanachievement(atthesametime,mortalityratesformanyother specieshavegoneup). Behindtheachievementwasatransformationinhumanvalues.Inthe UnitedStates,everypollrevealsbroadpublicsupportforenvironmental legislation,althoughnotforradicalorsacrificiallegislation.Inmuchof westernEurope,thepublicsupportisevenhigher.Peopletakeextraeffort torecyclewasteproducts,fightnewurbandevelopmentsinordertosave forests,andaredeeplyconcernedaboutthreatenedspecies.Ofcourse,it
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iseasiertobeconcernedwhentheproblemisatadistanceorwhenlocal costsarelow.Butthegapinunderstanding,inattitudes,betweenpresent EuropeansandAmericansandthoseofacenturyagoisdeep.Itisdifficult tounderstandpeoplewhoshotbisonforthefunofit,whokilledsongbirdsenmasse,whogainedabountyforeverywolfkilled,whoalmost reflexivelykilledanysnakeobserved,whosawtreesasobstaclestoprogress,orwhocasuallydumpedwastesintotheneareststream. Butthehigh-consumptioncountries,inaglobalperspective,haveincurredahighcostfortheirincomeandeventheirenvironmentalrepairs. Theyhaveusedupalargeshareoftheeasilyprocuredfossilfuels,threatened the protective ozone layer by their emission of ozone-depleting gases,riskedarapidriseinglobaltemperaturesbecauseofgreenhouse gasemissions,pushedthelevelofpollutioninoceanstodangerouslevels,inundatedthemselveswithwaste,usedenormousquantitiesofwater, exploitedthemosteasilyminedoftheworld’smineralresources,and,in earliercenturies,inbothEuropeandAmerica,strippedawayalargeshare offorestcover.Bytheirexcess,theyhavecreatedanearththatcannolongersupportthetypeofdevelopment,inpoorcountries,thathasledto theirconsumptiveexcesses.Theygottherefirst,andtookthebest.7
PARTTWO
VitalResources Soaringpopulationsandgrowingpercapitaconsumptionhavealready createdregionalscarcitiesinbasicresources.Suchscarcitieswill,almost inevitably,growmuchworseduringthecourseofthiscentury.Inchapter 3,Iofferabriefsurveyoftherelatedproblemsofsoilpreservationand foodproduction.Inchapter4,Iturntothepresentorimpendingscarcitiesofwaterandenergyinmuchoftheworld.Itisallbutcertainthatthe earth’ssuppliesofproductivesoils,freshwater,andfossilfuelswillnot beabletosupportall,orevenmost,oftheprojected9billionpeoplein 2050withanythingclosetothepresentlivingstandardsofthosewho liveinthetwentywealthiestcountries.Regionalshortagesofwaterfor irrigationandinescapablyhigherpricesforpetroleummayevenrequire areductioninlivingstandardsinsomepresentlywealthycountries.
3
Soil,Vegetation,andFood
H
umanslargelyliveonthesurfaceoftheearth.Theydrawtheirsustenancefromlivingorganismsthatdwellon,ornear,thesurface. Withoutfoodandwater,lifecannotsurvive.Withoutproductivesoil(and theplantlifesupportedbysoil),theworldcouldnotsupporthalfofits presentorganisms,orevenatenthofitshumanpopulation.Atpresent, inmanypartsoftheworldsoilisdegraded,waterisscarce,andfood suppliesaredeclining.In2005morethan840millionpeoplelackedan adequatediet,andeachyearthousandsstarvetodeath,whilemillions morediebecauseofmalnutritionandthediseasesfedbyit.DespiteheroiceffortsbytheUnitedNations,thefoodcrisisintheunderdeveloped worldhasnotimprovedinthelastdecade.InpartsofAfrica,ithasgrown worse.
SOIL Forhumans,themostimportantpartoftheearth’scrustisthesurface ofcontinentalplates,ortheareasoftheearthlargelycoveredbysoil.A fewpeoplecouldsurviveifallsoilsdisappeared.Theycouldgainproteinfromfishorcrustaceans,andneededvitaminsfromhydroponically grownvegetablesoroceanvegetation.Today,thefastestgrowingsource of protein for humans is fish, with 30 percent of these fish coming fromfishfarms,oraquaculture.Butmuchofthefoodfromaquaculture comesindirectlyfromthegrainthatisfedtofish.Thus,mostpeople woulddiewithouttheplantsthatgrowinsoil,andwithouttheanimal lifethatisdirectlyorindirectlydependentuponcontinentalplantlifefor survival. 43
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VitalResources
What is soil?Any definition is arbitrary. Only the starting point is clear.Soil,byalmostanydefinition,beginswiththeweatheringofrocks. Water,glacialmovement,freezingandthawing,chemicals(inair,water, andsoil),therootsofplants,andevengravityitselfhelpbreakrocksinto smallerandsmallerparticles.Evenhard,almostimpermeablemetamorphicrock(producedwhenigneousorsedimentaryrocksaretransformed byintensepressureandheat)eventuallybreaksdown.Thethresholdbetweenrockandsoilissomewherebetweensmallpebblesandsand.Most soilshaveparticlesmuchsmallerthanthoseinsand,thefinestofallbeingclay,withsiltinbetween.Itistheseparticlesofrockthatcontainthe originalnutrientsneededforplantgrowth.Muchoftheweatheringthat ledtosuchparticlesinvolvedlifeitself(theweatheringrateisuptoone hundredtimesfasterwhereabundantlifeispresent). But soil, as both scientists and farmers understand it, is more than particlesofrock.Italsoincludestheairandwaterthatmixwithrock particles,andwithoutwhichplantscannotgrow.Itincludesdecayedvegetation,ororganicmatter.Soilisthehometoaricharrayoflife,most microscopicbutalsofungi,worms,andinsectlarvae.Thesehelpbreak downcellulose,aeratesoil,andliberateneedednutrients.Anyrockparticlesporousenoughforcropproductionwillcontainair(orgases),but somedesertsoilsmaycontainalmostnowater.Farmerssupplythisby irrigation.Somearidsoils,ornewvolcanicsoils,mayhavealmostnoorganicmatter.Farmerscansupplythisthroughmanureandotherorganic waste,andintimedyingplantswilladdmore. Soillendsitselftomanytypesofclassification—bytexture,byregional location, by agricultural uses, by formative processes, or by appearance.ThesystemusedtodaybytheU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture—the ComprehensiveSoilClassificationSystem(CSCS)—istiedtoobservable featuresofsoil,orthelayersorhorizonsvisibleatdifferentdepths.The systembeginswithonlytwelveorders,eachwithaLatinizedname,but complicatesthiswithsuborders,greatgroups,subgroups,families,and series(overtwentythousandseriesarenowrecognizedbytheDepartmentofAgriculture).Eventhemostskilledsoilscientistscannotidentify allfamiliesorseries,oralwaysagreeontheproperclassification.Most ordersreflectformationcriteria,buttwoinvolvealluvialsoilseitherwith noclearlayersortheverybeginningsofsuch.Inthiscase,theorders reveal little about the chemical composition of the soil or its agriculturalpotential,althoughsomealluvialsoilsareamongtherichestofall.
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Amongoldersoils,undertheCSCSsystem,theordersthataremostimportantforgrowingcropsaresubtropicalsoilswithrelativelythinlayersofhumusandnutrientsbutwhichareveryproductivewiththeuse ofmanureorfertilizers;mid-latitudesoilswithmorenutrientsandless leaching;and,mostproductiveofall,thehumus-richsoilsofgrasslands orformergrasslands.Buteventhesemajororderscanvarywidelyinsuch agriculturalfactorsasnutrients,organicmatter,andacidity.1 Soilsarefragileinmanyways.Windcanblowawayparticlesofsoil and deposit them elsewhere, creating easily erodible loess soils.Water easilyerodesbarrentopsoil,movingitintostreams,orultimatelyinto theocean,ordepositingitalongrivervalleysorinevergrowingdeltas. Mineralsaltscontainedinwaterfromstreamscansoaccumulateinirrigatedsoilsastorenderthemunproductive.Thenaturalacidsinrainwater,augmentedattimesbyemissionsfromsteamplants,factories,or automobileexhausts,cansoincreasetheacidityofsoilsastomakethem inhospitabletomostfoodcrops.Theacidityreflectsthedisplacement,at themolecularlevel,ofnutrientionsbyhydrogenions.Someplantshave adaptedtonaturallyacidsoils(blueberriesforexample),butmosthave not.Also,acidsoilsreducetheabsorptionofphosphorusfromthesoilor fromfertilizers.Finally,theconstantcroppingofland,particularlywith high-foliageplants,continuouslydrainsawaynutrients,leadingeventuallytosoilstoopoortogrowalmostanyvegetation. Thesehazards—erosion,salinization,acidification,andexhaustion— vary in their seriousness according to climate and soil types. Modern farmersareabletocompensateformostofthesehazards.Contoursand no-tillmethodsreducewaterandwinderosion.Extrairrigationwater, well beyond the needs of a growing crop, leach away much (but not all)oftheaccumulatingsalts,thoughatsomehazardofcreatingwaterlogged soil.The concentrated, often toxic minerals drained away from suchdousingoftenendupinverypollutedstreamsorlakes.Itisrelativelyeasyto“sweeten”souroracidsoilsbytheapplicationofcalcium carbonate(lime),oroverlyalkalinesoilsbyapplyingsulfurcompounds. And,ofcourse,inhighlyefficientmodernagriculturefarmersannually providemostneedednutrientsthroughchemicalfertilizers. In the past, farmers had to battle soil depletion with crop rotation (wheat,forexample,wasgrownonlyeverysecondorthirdyear).Fallowfields,intime,produceenoughdecayingvegetation,eithergrassor weeds,toreplenishboththeorganiccontentofsoilsandtheirnutrient
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VitalResources
levels.Thunderstormsaddnitrogentorainfall,andthushelprestockfallowsoilswiththatmostvariable,andmosteasilyleached,soilnutrient (nitrogen,intheformofusablenitrates,isalsothemostexpensivenutrienttoproduceinfertilizers,foronlyhightemperaturesandthushighenergymethodscanextractthesenitratesfromtheair).Alargersource ofnaturalnitrogenisnitrogen-fixingbacteriathatclusterinoxygen-free nodulesontherootsoflegumes.Untiltwentieth-centuryprocessesmade possible the manufacture of artificial nitrates, the only large source of nitrogenforfertilizer,beyondthatofbarnyardmanureorotherorganic wastes,wasguanodepositsinsucharidareasasChile—nitratesaccumulatedovercenturiesinsolidifiedbirddroppings.Bytheeighteenthcentury,informedfarmersalsoknewthevalueofnitrogen-fixinglegumes, withcloversoftenplantedaspartofarotationpattern,withtheadvantagethattheclovercouldbeharvestedashayorusedforpasture.Bythe mid-nineteenth century, chemical fertilizers, most with little nitrogen, offeredfarmersarelativelycheapsourceofphosphorusandpotassium (theothertwomajornutrientsutilizedbyplants),whichcamefromeasilyaccessiblenaturaldepositsorfromwoodash. Climateandthevegetativecoverhaveasmuchenduringimpacton soiltypeandqualityastheoriginalrockcontent.Exceptinextremelyarid areas,soilsupportsvegetation(withforeststhemostconspicuous)and, inturn,iscontinuouslymodifiedbythedecayingremnantsofdeadvegetation.Incoldnorthernareas,whereconiferforestsdominate,thesoil isusuallyacidic,which,joinedwithshortgrowingseasons,meanslittle cropagriculture.Pastureandhaydominate.Inhumidtropicalclimates, rainforestsdominate.Growthisveryrapid,thenumberofspeciesalmost unbelievablylarge,andtheroots,seeds,andfruitofthevegetationrichin foodforanimalsandhumans.Butbecauseofthecontinuousleachingof nutrients,thesoilhasonlyathinlayerofhumus.Withoutextensiveuse offertilizers,whencleareditcansupportcropsforonlyafewyears.In someareas,suchasthehugeAmazonwatershed,eventhesustainedand profitablegrazingofcattlerequiresfertilizer.Inmorearidtropicalsoils, withlessleachingofsoilnutrients,theusuallyopensavannahscanoften yieldabundantcropswhenirrigated,particularlywhentheyhavebeen enrichedoverlongperiodsoftimebythedecayofnativegrasses. Thegreatsoilsoftheworldaremostlyinthemid-latitudes.There,at thenorthernextreme,theamountofsoilleachingisretardedbyclosed winters(wherethemeantemperatureisbelowfreezinginatleastone
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47
month,andwherethegroundremainsfrozenforatleastpartofeach winter).ThisisthesituationinmuchofnorthernChina,inScandinavia andmostofRussia,andinCanadaandthenorthernUnitedStates.These areasincludesomeofthemajorgrainbeltsoftheworld(predominantly wheatandmaize),andwithsuchgrainsalsothegreatestareasofmeat production.Ofallthesemid-latitudesoils,thebestareinareaslongdominatedbylargelytreelesssavannahs,suchasthoseinthecentralUnited States.Here,notbecauseofariditybutthroughfrequentburning,often by human choice, only low areas or streambanks were forested when Europeansarrived.Herewerethehighgrasslandprairiesofsuchstatesas Iowa.Eachyearthehighgrasses,evenaftergrazingbybison,depositeda newlayerofduff,whichsoondecayedintorich,blacksoil.Inpartsofthe Midwestthisprairieloamwasuptofiftyfeetdeep.Thiswasoneofthefew soilsintheworldthathadenoughstorednutrientstosustaingrainproductionforhalfacenturywithouttheuseoffertilizers.Nomore.Evenhere, heavycroppingofmaizeeventuallydepletedeventhesebestofsoils,and todayfewfarmersanywherecandispensewithfertilizer. Someofthemostproductivecroplandisinhumidbutwarmermiddle latitudes, the subtropical climates (frosty but open winters, with a meantemperatureabovefreezing).ThisincludesmuchofcentralChina, theeasternUnitedStatessouthoftheOhioRiver,plusareasinsouthernSouthAmericaandAfrica,andinAustraliaandNewZealand.There soils suffer more leaching than in colder areas, and outside alluvial valleyshaveathinnerorganichorizon.Butthewarmersummersand thelongergrowingseasoninsuremorerapidplantgrowthandprovide a home for long-season crops, such as cotton, rice, and tobacco. But in only a few years, if continually cultivated without fertilizer, such soils will no longer support high crop yields, and in hilly areas they aresubjecttorapiderosion.Theremedyforthisrelativeinfertilityhas beenchemicalfertilizers.Itisnotsurprisingthatthecottonstatesofthe AmericanSoutheastprovidedthefirstsustainedmarketforcommercial fertilizers. Aspecialhumidagriculturalzoneinvolvesamarinewestcoastclimate,asinmuchofwesternEuropeandthePacificNorthwest.Here openwintersallowsoilleaching,butthecoolsummersprecludelongseasoncropssuchascotton.Thecropvarietiesaresimilartothecooler mid-latitude climates, with small grains, hay, sheep, and dairy cows dominating.
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SOILMANAGEMENTANDCONSERVATION Soilisapreciousresource,sincealmostallterrestriallifeisdependent onit.Givenitsvalue,howhavehumanstreatedtheirsoils?Thisisavery complexstory.Ithassomanyregionalvariationsastodefyanygeneralizations.Often,humanshavedonewhattheyhadtodotosurvive,given thelevelofknowledgeandskills,orgivenalackofdevelopedtoolsor availablecredit.UntilafterWorldWarII,humansinalmostallareasofthe worldhadworkedoutreasonablystableformsofagriculture.Theyhadto inordertosurvivegenerationaftergeneration.Suchagriculturalregimes could,andoftendid,involveaverygradualwithdrawalofstoredsoil nutrients(thegreatbankofnature)thattheyinheritedfromthepast, withdireimplicationsforthefuture.But,overtime,evenwithslowly risingpopulations,themoreadvancedcountriestookneededactionto insureasustainablefoodsupply.Thismeanteffortsatsoilconservation, restorationoferodedsoils,andagradualintroductionfromtheoutside oftheneedednutrients.Infact,inbothwesternEuropeandtheUnited States,suchhasbeentheincreaseinagriculturalproductivitythatthe amount of cultivated land steadily declined throughoutthetwentieth centuryevenwhen,asintheUnitedStates,thepopulationtripled.Inthe UnitedStates,thegreatestabusesofthesoiloccurredbefore1930,not since. Thisdoesnotmeanthatthedrawdownonsoilresourceshasended. Even in the United States, soil erosion each year still exceeds the very gradualbuildupofnewsoil.Insomeunderdevelopedcountries,explodingpopulationsandaveryinefficientagriculturehavesodegradedthe landastoleadtowidespreadfamine.Noquickanswersarepossiblein suchareasastheSahelofAfrica.Desertshavereplacedover-grazedsavannahs.Rainfallhasdeclined.Rivershavedriedup.Marginalcroplandshave disappeared.Andtheforestcoverisallbutgone.Evenwiththebestof care,itcouldtakecenturiestorestorewhathasbeenlost. Theoldestobjectofenvironmentalconcernhasbeensoil.Sincethe developmentofcultivation,humanshavealwaysworried(somuchwas atstake)aboutthedepletionorerosionofsoils,evenastheynotedsome oftheunwantedeffectsofdeforestation.Suchconcernswerewidelyaired incolonialAmerica,andreachedacrescendoofconcernandwarningsby theearlynineteenthcentury.Butonlyafewagriculturalreformers,such asJohnTaylororEdmundRuffian,wereabletoimplementawiderange
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ofproposedchanges,intheuseoflime,incarefulrotationpatterns,in theuseoflegumes.Theywerewealthy,hadlargenumbersofslaves,and could afford to introduce what they called scientific agriculture.AffluentfarmersthroughoutAmericaformedagriculturalclubsorsocieties, inpartforsocialreasons,butalsotopublishperiodicalsadvocatingthe newestagriculturalmethods.AftertheCivilWar,thefederalgovernment ledthereformmovement,throughthenewagriculturalcollegesfunded bylandgrands,thenbyexperimentstations,andintheearlytwentieth centurybyextensionagentstoworkwithindividualfarmers.Ineffect, thegovernmentassumedthecostofmostresearchanddevelopmentfor this economic sector, and with spectacular results.Yet, until the 1930s depression,sucheffortshadonlylimitedimpact.Inpoorerareas,suchas theSoutheast,arangeofeconomicandsocialproblems—poverty,alack ofcredit,fewtools,lowhumanskills,andsmall,share-croppedunits— ledtopervasivesoilerosionanddepletedfertility.Theextensionofcrop agricultureintomarginalrainfallareasonthegreatplains,joinedinsome areasbyovergrazing,ledduringcyclesofdroughtnotonlytocropfailuresbutalsotohorriblewinderosion(thedustbowl). TheUnitedStates,muchmorethanthecountriesofwesternEurope, wasuniquelysituatedtoabsorbsuchaplunderingofitssoilsimplybecauseithadsomuchagriculturallandofthehighestqualityinratioto itspopulation.Accesstolandremainedcheap(thevalueoffarmslargely reflected labor-produced improvements or locational advantages, not a scarcityofusefulsoils).Insuchalow-rentcontext,incentivesformaintainingtheproductivityoffarmlandwereoftenlow.Thehighcostfactor waslabor,notaccesstoland.Landminingwasoftenmoreprofitablethan paying the costs of maintaining fertility, whether by longer rotations, manuringorfertilizing,orchoosinglessdepletingcrops.Thisexplains somenineteenth-centurypatterns.Onewasthelargeacreageownedby many farmers, much more land than they could cultivate with existingtoolsandintheabsenceofcheaphiredlabor.Thisledtosomething closelypatternedaftereasternwoodlandIndianagriculture—clear,farm foraslongasthesoilwasfertile,andthenmoveontonewclearings.The Indiansallowedtheuseduplandtoreverttoforest.EuropeansinAmerica turneditintopastureorhayuntilthetwentiethcentury,whenlargeareas offormerfarmlandintheeasternUnitedStatesrevertedtoforests.When farmers needed better soil, they cleared new fields on their own land. Later, when they exhausted forestland fit for cropping, they could sell
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VitalResources
their depleted farms and move farther west, where they could acquire excellentcroplandatlowcost. Despitethepleadingsofagriculturalreformers,maintainingexisting landwasnotalwayseconomicallyrational.Inthesamesense,itwasnot rationalforfarmerstoharvestforestresourcesselectively.Ofcourse,in a sense, farmers were making decisions on a short-term basis. Future generations, and society as a whole, would later have to pay for such degradedresources.Butatthetime,onlygovernmentalregulationscould havepreventedsuchchoices.And,hadtherebeensuchcontrols,thesocietyasawholewouldhavehadtopayforitatthetime,becauseofhigher costs for food and fiber. More intensive and socially responsible local developmentwouldalsohavedelayedthesettlementoftheWest,andthe eagerlysoughteconomicdevelopmentthatsparselypopulatedwestern areassoferventlydesired. By the Great Depression, an agricultural revolution was just beginning, one that would climax in the three decades afterWorldWar II in the United States, western Europe, Japan, andAustralia and New Zealand. Its effect would be delayed in many third-world countries, butwithnodiminishedimpact.Inbrief,productionperacreofland doubled in as little as one generation; the productivity of labor oftenquadrupled.IntheUnitedStates,thesizeoffarmunitsmorethan doubled,whilethenumberoffarmsshrunkfromnearly7millionto 2million(orabout800,000thataccountformostproduction),even astheamountoflanddevotedtocropsdeclined.Thedoublingofthe world’spopulationfrom1960to2000wouldhavebeenimpossible, eveninconceivable,withoutthisagriculturalrevolution,withallitshumanandenvironmentalcosts. In the United States, the agricultural policies that made possible the explosion of productivity first came to maturity in the depression years—production controls, price supports, marketing incentives, and, oftenoverlooked,awholerangeofnewfederalprogramsthatsupported soilimprovementandconservation.Bythe1930s,amajorconservation movement,whichinvolvedlargelyforestryandmineralconservationat thebeginningofthecentury,peaked,andbythenlandhadthehighest priority(thedustbowlyears,unprecedentedsummerheatanddrought, andaspotlightonSoutherneconomicmaladiesallhelpedcreatebroad popularsupportforsoil-relatedreforms).Thesecamequickly.Thefederal government,intheNewDealyears,purchasedsubmarginalfarmlands
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andhelpedstatesconvertmanyoftheseintostateparks,setupanew SoilConservationServicewithofficesineveryruralcounty,by1936tied farmpricesupportstosoilconservationpracticesimplementedbyfarmers,usedtheTVAfornewandverysuccessfulexperimentsinfertilizer productionanduse,expandedexponentiallyresearchanddevelopment programsintheDepartmentofAgricultureandinregionalexperiment stations,and,aboveall,offeredawiderangeofsubsidiestohelpfarmers initiate soil-saving strategies. For example, if one flies over almost anypartoftheUnitedStatestoday,theywillobservethousandsoffarm ponds,literallydottingthelandscape,almostallpaidforinlargepartby federalfunds.Thesenotonlyhelptocontrolrunoff,butalsohaveimportantrolesinwildlifemanagement(mostMidwesternfarmsare,ineffect, smallwaterfowlrefuges).Theflyerwillalsoobserve,inallhillyareas,a mosaicofcontouredfields,withtheirterracesalmostalwayssubsidized intheiroriginaldevelopmentbyfederalfunds.2 With all the attention, today, on air and water pollution, on toxic wastesites,onozonelayerdepletion,orongreenhousegasesandtheir probableeffectonglobalwarming,itiseasytooverlooktheonemost successfulenvironmentalprograminmostindustrializedcountries—soil conservation. In the United States, federal programs have worked beyondallexpectations.ThisismostdramaticallyrevealedinacomparisonofairphotographsoftheSoutheastin1933andtoday.Red,eroded fields,whichwereeverywhere,aregonetoday.Mostofthemarenow in grass, a few in new forests. Conservation policies, and in time selfinterest,ledfarmerstomaketheneededrepairs.Thedramaticincrease infarmproductivityallowedfarmerstowithdrawcropsfrommarginal lands.ThisprocessbeganinNewEnglandbythelatenineteenthcentury, as cheaply transported grain and meat from the Midwest made hillyfarmsunprofitable.Ownersdesertedthem,withmostrevertingto forests.MostAmericansaresurprisedtofindthatforestland,someof inferiorquality,increasedthroughoutthetwentiethcentury,although oldgrowthforestshavecontinuedtodecline.AfterWorldWarII,witha patternofcontinuedsurpluses,farmersthroughoutthecountrywithdrewcultivationfrommarginalland,or,whensubsidizedbythefederal government, from very good but erodible land that is now in a Conservation Reserve program.The marginal land reverted to forests orcontinuedaspasture.Thesubsidizedreservesofproductiveland,by therequirementssetbyfederalagencies,areidle(annualorbiannual
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mowingpreventsreforestation).Thesereservedplotshaveamajorrole inwildlifepreservation,andcould,ifneeded,augmentfoodproduction inthefuture.Atpresent,itishardtoseeanyeventualitythatwillrequire theiruseinthenearfuture,asagriculturalglutsareamajorproblemin allthedevelopedworld.
GLOBALFOODPROSPECTS Fearsofglobalfoodshortages,atleastinthenearfuture,aremisplaced. Butlocalfoodshortageswillprobablyincrease,andwiththemstarvation and death. One can even work out quite plausible scenarios that, withnoincreaseinthelandcultivatedworldwide,willallowtheearth tosupportapopulationdoublewhatitistoday,andeasilysupportthe 9billionpeoplepredictedbythemiddleofthiscentury.Iamnotsure suchscenariosareworthmuch.Butiffarmersaroundtheworldwereas productiveasIowacornfarmers,theycouldfeedmorethan9billion. Theymighthavetostopgrowingnonfoodcrops(tobacco,cotton),and intimemostpeoplemighthavetobecomevegetarians(routinggrain throughcowsandhogswastescalories,butgrazingaddstotheworld’s supply of protein). Of course, most farmers around the world do not havesoilasproductiveasthatinIowa,and,muchmoreimportant,they donothavethemachines,thepesticides,thefertilizers,thepoliticalstability,andtheknowledgethatmakessuchproductionpossible.Yet,the advancedagriculturalcountries,thosewiththelatestfarmingtechniques, joined with the existing level of agricultural production in China and India,couldgrowenoughfoodstuffstosustaintheworld’stotalpopulationtodayandintotheindefinitefuture.Itishardtocalculatehowmuch foodAmericansalonecouldgrowiftheyutilizedallpresentlyreserved cropland,substitutedfoodcropsforcottonandtobacco,replacedsuitable pastures with crops, utilized the gardening potential of roadsides andbackyardsandevengolfcourses,andmovedbackontoreasonably productivemarginallandorbeganclearingforestland,thusutilizingsoils thatwoulddelightanyfarmerintheSahelofAfrica. The problem is,American farmers will never do this.They cannot sell,ataprofit,muchthattheynowproduceonourdecliningnumberof farms.Also,themostcalorie-intensivevegetablesarenoteasilyshipped to distant consumers. Food relief is bound to grow, for humanitarian reasons, and governments in advanced countries will continue to pay
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forsuchfood.Butitissimplyinconceivablethatsuchgovernmentswill spendalargeshareoftheirbudgetsforfoodrelief,orwhatwillbenecessaryifworldpopulationsexpandto9billionwithoutmatchingagriculturalreformsinthoselargelypoorcountriesthatnowhavethehighest birthrates.And even with the most generous outside support, political instabilityoftenpreventsthedeliveryoffoodaid. Whenonespeaksoffood,orofthesoilsthatfurnishit,onehasto attend to enormous regional differences. People in some parts of the worldhavealwaysfacedfoodshortages.Famineshavebeenapartoflife. TheMalthusianwarning—thatviceandmiseryaretheultimatemeans ofcontrollingpopulationgrowth—wasnotapredictionaboutthefuture butanobservationofwhatprevailedinmostoftheworldin1796.Scarcityisapartoflife,althoughhumansthroughforesightandplanning can escape the hard regime of scarcity.The one most important secret of such an escape are policies affecting the soil and farming practices. Hungerhasprovedaveryintractableproblem,withUnitedNationsFood
40 Sub-Saharan Africa
Percent Undernourished
35 30 25 South Asia 20 East Asia 15 10
Latin America and Caribbean
5 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Fig.4.Undernourishedpopulationsinthe1990s.Dottedlinesrepresentprogress required to meet 2015 goals to alleviate hunger. (Data from FAQ.) (United Nations,GlobalChallenge,GlobalOpportunity,6.)
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andAgriculturalOrganizationtargetsforhungerreductionsofarunmet. EachannualWorldFoodDay(October16)revealsroughlythesame800 millionhungrypeople,althoughasapercentageofthetotalworldpopulationthisstablenumberrepresentedaslightannualimprovement(see figure4),witheventhispercentagegainreversedin2004.In2000,the UnitedNationsagreeduponasetofmillenniumgoalsthatincludedthe reduction,byhalf,ofworldhungerby2015.In2006nothingsuggests thatitwillevencomeclosetomeetingthatgoal.Notethathungerisonly theextremeexampleoffoodproblems.Almost30percentoftheworld’s population suffer from some form of malnutrition, while 60 percent ofchildrenwhodiebeforetheageofsixhavesufferedfrommalnutrition.Mostbabieswithlowbirthweight(23.8percentworldwide)reflect malnourishedmothers.3
THEGREENREVOLUTION AtthetimeoftheAmericanRevolution,nearly90percentofthepopulationwasdirectlyinvolvedinagriculture.Cityartisansgrewgardensand keptacow.Eventhemostefficientfarmfamilycouldgrowenoughfood foronlyonemorefamily.Today,around700,000family-ownedfarms, plus40,000corporatefarms,provideover90percentofthefoodstuffs, pluscottonandtobacco,neededby260millionAmericans,withalarge surplus for export.This is produced on less land than in 1900, when farmersstillmadeupalmost40percentofourworkforce(full-timefarm operatorstodaymakeuplessthan1percentofourworkforce).And,by most criteria, this near miracle in productivity has paralleled a vast improvementintheconditionofoursoils.HowdidAmericanfarmersdoit? Astheabovefactsmakeclear,therevolutionmostofallinvolvedthe amountoflaborneededinagriculture.GiventhecostoflaborinAmerica,thedriveforefficiencyhasusuallyinvolvedlabor-savingstrategies. Insomecases,suchaswesternwheat,theaverageproductionperacre, onsemi-aridland,isoftenonlyhalfthatinPennsylvaniaorinIreland. But the size of the fields and the highly mechanized custom planting and combining minimize the labor costs and make such wheat more than competitive on world markets. In all major crops, the gains have involvedthereplacementofdraftanimalsandhumanlaborbymachines, thecarefullycalculatedapplicationoffertilizers,theuseofinsecticides, fungicides,andherbicidestocontrolinsects,diseases,andweeds,water
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managementthatinvolvesnotonlyroutineirrigationbutsupplemental irrigationeveninhumidareas,anddramaticimprovementsinvarieties grown,againalmostfullyrealizedthroughpastmethodsofplantbreedingandhybridizing,butonethatmaynowfaceanewrevolutionthrough directgeneticmanipulation.Equalbutdifferentefficiencieshavetransformedpoultryandhogproduction,andthefatteningofbeefcattle. Thecostshavemostlyinvolvedotheraspectsoftheenvironmentand notsoil.Americanfarmersstilllosesoiltowindandwatererosion.Even forestedlandsufferssomeerosion.Thisispartofnature.Butland,asnow managedinAmerica,isnotanendangeredresource.Techniquesareavailabletoimprovedepletedsoil,althoughsuchcanbecostly(turningunder legumesyearafteryeartorestoreheavilyerodedhillsides).Althoughthe textureandnativenutrients(especiallytraceelements)ofsoilremainimportant,thesoilforafarmerisnownotsomuchthesourceofnutrients asacontainerforthenutrientsappliedannuallytofields.Unlikeinthe past,goodcornlandcanbecroppedindefinitely.Heavilyirrigatedsoils cannotsustainagricultureindefinitely,althoughsalinatedsoilscanrecoverovertimeifnotcropped.Butthebigprobleminirrigatedagriculture worldwideisnotsomuchsoilconditions,butthecontinuedavailability ofwatertofeedcropsandtoleachawaysalts. Thecostsofsuchefficientagriculturearemany.Behindallthechangesisthesubstitutionoftheenergycreatedbyburninghydrocarbonsfor themusclepowerofpeopleanddraftanimals.Whenhumansfirstbegan cultivatingland(anindustrialrevolutionoftranscendingimportance), theyusedtheirhandsandsimpletools.Thetotalenergyused,reflected inthecaloriesburnedbytheworker,waslessthanthecaloriespresentin theharvestedcrops.Thenetgaincamefromthefecundityoftheearth. In primitive agriculture, the using up of soil nutrients soon depleted thesoil,butwhenalowpopulationdensityprevailedoveranextended landscape,itwaslessthantheannualaccumulationofneworganicmatterandnutrients.Thus,peoplesimplymovedtonewland.Thiswastrue, forexample,fortheNativeAmericansineasternNorthAmericaatthe timeofEuropeancontact.Suchanagriculturecouldprovideasustained yieldforever. Whenhumanslearnedtousedraftanimalstopullplowsandwagons (anothergreatindustrialrevolution),theyhadtogrowmorecaloriesto feed their livestock.This meant a much heavier demand on soils and, withexplodingpopulations,theneedtotakeintoaccountthelong-term
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needsoftheland.Whenearlycivilizationsfailedtofindasustainedaccommodationwiththesoil,theysuffered,facedstarvation,declined,and eveninsomecasesexpired(theMississippiancultureinNorthAmerica maybesuchadirecase).Thelearninginvolvedrotationpatterns,theuse ofmanureorotherwasteproducts,andmorebenignformsofplowing andcultivation.Earlymodernagriculture,orthetypeEuropeansbrought toAmerica,reflectedthisaccommodation.Butthesparsepopulationin Americaandtheenormouswealthoffertilitythathadaccumulatedover thecenturiesallowedearlyEuropeanstobreakfreeofthetraditionalpatternsandgainwealthfromthedrawdownofsoilnutrientsthatseemedall butinexhaustible.Thiswas,obviously,apatternthatcouldnotcontinueindefinitely,andthusthenineteenth-centuryreformsinAmericanagriculture thatpreparedthewayforthetwentieth-centuryagriculturalrevolution. Ifsoilsweretheonlycriticalresource,theUnitedStatescouldsecure anabundanceoffoodintothedistantfuture.Infact,givenitsunused soilorsoilcommittedtononfoodcrops,itcouldeasilydoublefoodproductionoverthenexttwodecades.Ifworldmarketscreateahighprice forfoods,itmightinfactdojustthat.Butinspiteofthisfact,itwould bemistakentorefertopresentAmerican(orwesternEuropean,Canadian,Australian)agricultureassustainable.Itinvolvesasmall,stilleasily compensatedfor,drawdownofsoilnutrients,butamuchmoreserious using up of fossil fuels and of easily accessible phosphates and potassium.Ofcourse,farmsuseonlyasmallpercentageoffossilenergy(in theformnotonlyofmachinesbuttheenergyusedtoproducenitrates forfertilizer),whencomparedtoelectricalgeneration,automobiles,and manufacturing.Inthissense,itjoinsotherareasofhumanproductionor transportationtiedtoadepletableresource.Ifonecouldgiveaprecise meaningtotheideaofsustainedproduction,overanindefinitefuture, thenhighlycapitalizedagriculturewouldhavetoabsorbthelong-term costsmadeinevitablebyfuturesubstitutionsofnewsourcesofenergy. Thesecostsareimpossibletoestimate,butmightbeveryhigh.Unlikein thepast,anefficientfarmerusesathousandtimesmorecaloriesthanis containedinthefoodproduced. Theothersideofenvironmentalcostsinvolveswhatagriculturereleasesintotheenvironment.Properlyused,someofitswasteproducts arevaluable,recyclableassets,asinthetraditionalusesofmanureby farmers.That is no longer true of the enormous lagoons of manure accumulated by modern hog and poultry factories, or created by
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hugebeefcattlefeedinglots.Thesecan,andoccasionallydo,seepinto groundwaters,withdevastatingeffects,whilethemethanegivenoffby suchmanureincreasesgreenhousegases,andinafewcasesthesulphur dioxideendangersnearbyresidents.Atthesametime,thephosphates andnitratesthatderivefromchemicalfertilizersare,inmostareasof thecountry,theprimarysourcesofstreamandlakepollution.Joining thesearetheresiduesofpesticides,withtheirpotentialeffectonhumanhealthoronfish,birds,andanimals.Eventheshiftininsectecologieshavehadunpredictedanddamagingconsequences(thekillingoff ofbeneficialinsects,andtheneedformoreandmorechemicalcontrols). Tractorsandcombineslackmostofthepollutioncontrolsrequiredon automobiles,andthuscontributemorethannumberswouldindicateto airpollution.Thesecosts,atpresent,arebornebythelargerpublic,not byfarmers.Manyofthecostswillnotbeclearuntilwellintothefuture. Today,thedegradationofsoils,rampantdeforestation,anddevelopingfoodshortagesareregionalproblems.Inasense,thishasalwaysbeen true.These problems have worsened in much of the underdeveloped worldduringthelasttwodecades,withtheimmediatefuturelooking verybleak.Onlyinsub-SaharanAfricahaslanddegradationadvancedso farastoinsureacontinueddecreaseinpercapitafoodproduction,and thus an indefinite dependence upon food imports. Political instability, hugegovernmentaldebts,lowworldcommodityprices(foroil,other minerals,andtropicalfoods),rapidlygrowingpopulations(stillover3 percentayearinmanyAfricancountries,evenasbirthratesaredeclining inmostofLatinAmericaandinIndia),disastrousgovernmentalpolices keyed to manufacturing development rather than agricultural reform, andfinallythebarriertoforeignsalesbecauseofheavilysubsidizedor priceprotectedagricultureinindustrializedcountries—allhavehelped createtheproblem.Theproblemhastwoaspects:deforestationandlow agriculturaloutput.
DEFORESTATIONANDINEFFICIENTFOODPRODUCTION Forestsarethemostvisibleanddramaticproductofthesoil.Treesgrow onoverhalfthelandareaoftheearth.Onlyverydrysoils,orverycold temperatures,precludetreegrowth.Denseforestsarelimitedtohumid areas,butnotethatrainfallrequirementsvaryaccordingtotemperatures. In northern Canada and Siberia, where winters are long and frozen,
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whereevaporationratesarelow,lessthan10inchesofannualrainfallcan supportforestcover.Inthetropics,even30inchesmaysupportonlyscattered,savannah-typetrees.Rainfallpatternsarealsocritical.Areaswith wetanddryseasons,suchasMediterraneanclimates,nourishspecialtypes ofdeep-rootedtrees,butthesenevermakeupadensecover.Inaridareas, treesgrowonlyalongstreams.Inthemostgeneralsense,thethreegreat areasoffullforestcoverincludetropicalrainforests(theAmazonbasin andscatteredareasofCentralAmerica,muchofcentralAfrica,andalarge areaofSoutheastAsia);mid-latitudedeciduousormixedforests(originally mostofwesternEuropeandpartsofRussia,thehumidareasoftheeastern UnitedStatesandsouthernCanada,amarinewestcoastbeltfromnorthernCaliforniatoAlaska,andmuchofJapanandChina);andcool-climate, mostlyconiferforests(AlaskaandnorthernCanada,acrossnorthernEurasia,andathigheraltitudesinmountainrangesaroundtheworld). Thickforestsaresuchadominantformofvegetationthattheynot onlydependonafavorableclimate,butdomuchtoshapetheclimate. Treerootsandthegroundcoverofdecayingleavesslowtheabsorption ofrainfallandthuspreventerosion,andsoslowrunoffastoretardflooding.Bytranspiration,treesaddtothehumidityoftheair,andthustend toincreaserainfall.Trees,likeallvegetation,absorbatmosphericcarbon dioxide,andthereforearecriticalinslowingthebuildupofgreenhouse gases,althoughmostofthiscarboniseventuallyreleasedbackintothe atmosphere.Inmid-latitudes,forestslessentemperatureextremes,moderatehighandlowcyclesinstreamflow,increaseprecipitation,andpreventmostwindandsoilerosion. Ofallspecies,humanshavehadthegreatestimpactonforests.Insectsattackandsometimeskilltrees,andtodaythesemostoftenareinvasivespecies introducedthroughtravelortrade.Beaversfellafewtrees.Deermayoverbrowsetrees,orkillallnewtreegrowth.Butonlyhumanshavedeforested largeareasoftheearth,notonlybycuttingandburning,butalsobythe effectsofacidrain,harmfulpesticides,andimporteddiseasesandfungi. InpartsofwesternEurope,itisimpossibletohaveanyclearideaofwhat theforestcoverwaslikeinthedistantpast,beforehumanoccupation. Human interactions with forests take many forms. One, so evident inearlyAmerica,isgettingridoftreesthatareanimpedimenttoagriculture.Anotheristheusingupoftreesasfuelortimber.Humansalso harvesttheproductsoftreeswithoutdestroyingthem,asingatheringthe fruits, nuts, or sap (for rubber, tar, turpentine, or maple syrup). Finally,
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humansoftenselectandplanttreesinbehalfofaharvest(orangegroves, appleorchards,rubberplantations).Throughouthumanhistorythegreatestuseoftreeshasbeenforfuel;thisisstilltrueinmuchofthethirdworld. Anditisthisusethathasledtothemostcriticalenvironmentalproblems, problems based on rapid population growth and traditional patterns of heatinghomesorcookingfoodor,inIndia,crematingthedead.Evenin tropicalareas,fuelisanecessityforcooking.Mostfoods,particularlytropicalfoods,arenotpalatableorinsomecasesevensafewithoutcooking. Culturalpatternshelpshapethetypeandamountofcooking;inIndiathe traditionalcuisineoftenrequireselaborateandextendedpreparation. ThecumulativeuseofwoodasafuelintheSouthAsiansubcontinent, byapopulationnowoveroneandathirdbillion,isenormous,andapproachingacrisis.Otherfuelsarenotavailable,oraretooexpensive,as isalsotrueinmuchofcentralAfrica,wherepercapitaincomesremain ataround$300–$400ayear.IntheSahelofAfrica,thewoodisallbut gone(seefigure5).Women,andtheyarethevictimsinthiscase,often traveltenmilestogatheranyorganicmaterialstheycanfind.Theburden hasbecomeexcessive;thefutureisallbuthopelesswithoutheavilysubsidizedoutsiderelief(thiscouldinvolveshipmentsofcoalorwood).4 10 1980–1990
1990–2000
Percent per Decade
8 6 4 2 0 -2 Africa
Asia
Latin America
Developed Countries
Fig.5.Deforestationrate,1980–2000(datafromFAQ).(UnitedNations,Global Challenge,GlobalOpportunity,12.)
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Equallycriticalintheunderdevelopedworldistheincreaseddemand fortillableland.Here,again,anexplosivegrowthofpopulation,joined withagriculturalinefficiency,hascreatedthescarcity.Thisscarcityblocks effortstopreservewildlifesanctuaries,topreventovergrazing,ortolimit the erosive effects of farming unsuited land. Most of all, it makes forestpreservationanunaffordableluxury.Witheachgeneration,plotsbecomesmallerandlessefficient.Waterforirrigationcannotbeexpanded, orintheSahelisactuallydecliningwiththedesertificationcreatedby overuse.Desperatelypoorpeoplecannotaffordnewtoolsorbuyfertilizer.Inmostthird-worldareas,thepotentialformorefoodproduction, whichinmostregionsremainslarge,simplycannotberealized.Togain moreefficiencywouldrequireknowledge,capital,moreextensiveplots, andpoliticalstability.Andevenifagriculturalreformswerepossible,despitealltheseimpediments,itwouldmeantheexpulsionofmostexisting farmersfromtheland.Theywouldjointhemillionsofthird-worldpeople flockingtourbanareas,withsmallprospectsforjobs,onlythemostprimitivehousing,andnowaterorsewerservices.Thus,inmuchofAfricaand SouthAsia,theremainingforestsareendangeredandreforestationalmost impossible.Theresultingclimatechangesarepresentlyirreversible. Incountrieswithpercapitaincomeunder$1,000,itmaynotmake sense to try to introduce the capital-intensive agriculture that is now dominant in Europe and NorthAmerica. In India, particularly in rice andwheatculture,WesterntechniqueswereverysuccessfulinthePunjab.Buttractorsandextensivefieldsarenotananswerforthethousands of villages that contain most of India’s population. Labor is too cheap tomakemachinesprofitable.Andnotenoughjobsexistinservicesor manufacturingtoabsorbdisplacedvillagefarmworkers.Indiaiscursed, already,bythemillionsofformerpeasantsflockingtotheoutskirtsof itsmajorcities.ThesameistrueinmuchofAfrica.Intheseareas,productivity increases sinceWorldWar II have usually involved improved varietiesofriceandotherfoodcrops,notreductionsinlaborcosts.But thebenefitsoftheGreenRevolutionsimplyaccompaniedarapidgrowth ofpopulation,andintimealmostimpossiblepressuresonforests,soils, andwaterresources.Ifthepopulationcouldstabilize(evenreplacement birthrateswillnotaccomplishthisforthenextthirtyyearsbecauseof the huge bulge of children and youth), then the goal for agricultural reformwouldhavetobeproductivityincreasesonexisting,oftensmall plots, and only a gradual introduction of tractors, larger farms, and a
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cumulativelydrasticreductionintheagriculturallaborforce.Formany countries,thismaybeanimpossiblegoal,foritrequiresaconcomitant increaseinmanufacturingandservices,inacontextinwhichaboutthe onlyinducementforgrowthintheseareasislowwages.Outsideinvestment,subsidizedbyrichercountries,mightwork,ifonlythepolitical environmentwasconducive(abigif),andifoutsidecorporationswere willingtosupportlocaldevelopmentgoalsandnotseekwaystoexploit resourcesandmakeshort-termprofits(ahugeif). Evenforunderdevelopedcountries,thesituationisnotallbleak.Food productionpercapitaandpercapitafoodconsumptionhaverisenrather steadilysincethe1960s,orby450caloriesperdayintheworldasawhole, and600caloriesindevelopingcountries.Muchofthisgainoccurredin China(anincreaseof1,000calories).Butatpresentagriculturalproductionisstagnantordeclininginsub-SaharanAfrica.Atthesametime,people worldwidehavemovedtomorebalancedornutritiousdiets.Thepercentageoftotalcaloriesfromcerealshasdeclined,fatconsumptionhasrisen(to the15percentminimumforahealthydietinmostdevelopingcountries, exceptinAfrica,andabovethemaximumof45percentforgoodhealthin industrializedcountriesandpartsofLatinAmerica).Theconsumptionof fruitsandvegetablesremainmuchtoolowinmostoftheworld,including evensomeindustrializedcountries.Theconsumptionofmeat,dairyproducts,andfishhasgrownworldwide,withfishconsumptiondoublingsince 1960(themajorsourceofproteinfor1billionpeopleworldwide). Butthesegainsarenowimperiledinmuchoftheunderdeveloped world, and particularly inAfrica. In most cases it is not because of a shortageofland,orashortageofwaterforirrigation.Expensiveimprovementsinthetransportofwatercouldexpandirrigation,whileexpensive fertilizercouldexpandproductiononexistingland.Theproblemsallinvolveotherdisabilities—mostofallpoverty,butalsopoliticalinstability, warfareandtheresultingrefugeepopulations,naturalcalamities(floods, droughts).Clearly,resourcelimitationswillhaveamajorimpactinthe future.TheUnitedNationsestimatesthatoverthenextthirtyyearsthe presentinabilityofmuchofAfricatomeetexistingdemandsforcereals and meat will grow, meaning an ever greater dependence on food imports.Thefoodexists,butpoorcountriescannotaffordtobuyit.The declineinsubsistenceagriculture,andthemassivemovementofpeasants intocities,willonlyexacerbatetheproblem.5 Nosecondgreenrevolutionseemsimminent.Theonemostrealistic
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hope is that genetic engineering can lead to large increases in yields. Evenheretherisksarehigh.Howevermuchplantbreedersareabletocreateinsect-ordisease-resistantormorenutritiousvarieties,throughtime mutatedinsectsorfungimayovercometheresistance.Already,inthemajor agriculturalcountries,itishardtokeepaheadofthegame.Andtoanextentnotyetfullymeasured,theshiftinallpartsoftheworldtoafewnew, veryproductivevarietieshasloweredthegeneticdiversitypresentinthe past,withamuchhigherriskthatdisastrousnewdiseasescould,inoneor twoyears,almostdestroyagiven,highlybredcrop,suchaswheat,rice,or maize.Beyondallthis,itisimpossible,asyet,toestimateallthepossible butunanticipatedsideeffectsofgeneticallymodifiedplantsandanimals. Thesealreadyincludehighseedcostsandcorporatemonopolies.
FOODPROSPECTSINTHENEARFUTURE Suchproblemsassoilloss,deforestation,andevenwidespreadhunger arecriticalinsomepartsoftheearth,butnotinothers.Inhigh-income partsoftheworld,populationsarealreadystableordecliningandan ever more efficient agriculture has lessened, not increased, the land neededforfoodproduction.Intheseareas,itwillbepossibletoconvertmoreandmorelandtoparksandwildlifepreserves.Forestlands will, if anything, increase, and with careful management almost all present species can survive. In fact, in some areas biodiversity may increase. But such an irenic future will probably depend on new sourcesofenergy,consumptionchangesinnonfoodareas,lesswaste andpollutionofairandwater,andpossiblyverydifficultstrategiesto slowglobalwarming.Inthissense,themajorchallengesforadvanced economieswillinvolveothereconomicsectorsthanagriculture,which, inmanyways,wasthegreatsuccessstoryofthelastcentury. Inamiddlerangeofcountries,measuredbyincomesandproductivity(partsofLatinAmerica,muchoftheMiddleEastandSouthwestAsia, andtheformercommunistbloc),therecenttrendsaremixed.InLatin America,populationgrowthseemstohaveveryrecentlyturnedrapidly downward,suggestingpossiblestabilitywhenthepresentbulgeofyouth havecompletedchildbearing.Thesecountriesmayduplicateapathtaken bywesternEuropeandtheUnitedStates,butacenturylater.Yet,inmuch ofLatinAmericatheagriculturalsectorremainsbackwardandinefficient, andenvironmentalproblemsmoreacutewitheachpassingyear.Venezu-
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ela,withplentyofgoodland,hastoimportfoodstuffs.Rainforests,and thebiodiversitytheysupport,areeverywherethreatened.IntheMiddle East,oilhasenabledIslamiccountriestoimportfoods,butthisresource willnotlast.ApopulationexplosioninEgypthasswampeditstraditional agriculture,ashaspopulationgrowthinIndonesia. The former communist bloc has its own special problems. PopulationsarestableordeclininginRussiaandeasternEurope,butthesecountriesarealmostoverwhelmedbyenvironmentalproblems,andfewhave theresourcesatpresenttodotheneededrepairs.InRussia,agricultureis stilladisasterdespitesomerecentevidenceofrecovery.Afterthebreakup oftheSovietsystem,inmanyyearsitdidnotfeeditspopulation,despite thesoilandclimateneededtosustainagriculturalsurpluses. IndiaandChina,withoverathirdoftheworld’spopulation,arelowincomecountries(partofthethirdworldbasedonpercapitaincomes), butbothhavemuchoftheinfrastructureofhighlydevelopednations(a large class of educated people, excellent universities, high-technology industries, and in some areas a very efficient agriculture). China may havestabilizeditspopulation;Indiamayfollowinthirtytofortyyears. Chinafeedsitself(agreatachievement),andinmostareaswiththecaloricintakeofWesternsocieties.India,afterenormousefforts,feedsits population, with grain surpluses in some years, but the caloric intake is much smaller than in theWest, and a large share of the population isundernourishedbyWesternstandards.Ithasnomarginofsafety,but at least it has the human capital to try to cope with its overwhelming economicproblems.Itwillbealmostimpossibleforallthecountriesof SouthAsiatoretaintheremainingforestcover,tocopewithsoilerosion andincreasinglydisastrousfloods,andtofindtheneededfuelforvillagers.TheproblemsinPakistanmatchthoseinIndia;inBangladesh,they arefarworse.Thepresentrateofglobalwarming,ifitcontinues,will exacerbatealltheseproblems. Asisclearfromwhatcamebefore,sub-SaharanAfrica,excludingthe RepublicofSouthAfrica,facesthemostintractableproblems,notonlyin foodproductionbutinalleconomicandpoliticalareas.Politicalinstabilityanduncheckedbirthratesonlyaddtotheproblems.Theareacannot meetitschallengeswithoutlargeandcontinuousoutsidehelp,notjustin theformsofinvestmentthatmaybeprofitable,butintypesofeducation andinfrastructureimprovementsthatwillenablethesepeoplestohelp themselves.
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It may seem surprising to some, but for the United States the environmentalproblemsattendantuponmodernagricultureleastinvolve thesoil.Wehaveplentyforourneeds,andforanyrealisticprojectionof whatwecandotohelpfeedotherpartsoftheworld.Nothingismore misplacedthanlamentationsabouthownewhousingdevelopments,industrialparks,orshoppingcentersaretakingovergoodfarmland.Often,theydojustthis,butwehavenoscarcityofsuchland.Wehavea surplus.Onemayregretthedisplacementoffarmersfromhigh-priced, developable land near urban centers, deplore the esthetic horrors that replacesuchfarms,lamenttheenvironmentalcostsofstripdevelopment, bemoanthelossofhabitatforplantsandanimals,butsoilscarcityisnot avalidconcern,notatpresentorintheforeseeablefuture.Ofcourse,if ourpopulationgrewat3percentayear,asinmuchofAfrica,wemight eventually regret such land-hungry development, but unless we open ourdoorstoafloodofnewimmigrantseachyear,thepopulationofthe UnitedStatescouldsoonstabilizeataround320million(existingbirthratesareatareplacementlevel,butnomore). Even without continued improvements in agricultural productivity, theUnitedStateshasmorelandthanitwillsoonneedtofeedandeven clothe its population. Likewise, it has a sustainable supply of trees for timber and pulp. Such is the availability of good land that the United Stateshasthecapacitytogrowmuchofitsfuelformotorvehicles.Scientistsaresteadilydevelopingmoreeconomicalwaysofconvertingvegetationdirectlyintoenergy(ethanolorbiomassdieselfuel),thuslessening thedependenceonfossilfuels.Yet,theUnitedStatesandotherdeveloped nationscannotisolatethemselvesfromtheproblemsofhunger,deforestation,andlanddegradationinotherpartsoftheworld.Ironically,todaythe veryproblemsoffoodproductioninotherpartsoftheworldhavehelped, inasmallway,tomaintainamarketforouragriculturallargesse.Butunless food-deficientcountriescanproducegoodstoexchangeforfood,orfind waysofimprovingtheirownagriculture,thefuturewillbebleak.Charityisonlyatemporarilystopgap.Thus,fortheUnitedStatestheproblem isoneofhelpingotherpartsoftheworldincreaseagriculturalefficiency, conserveexistingforestsorreforestvulnerablewatersheds,preservethreatenedspecies,conserveandimprovesoils,andenforcewhatisoftenalreadyquiteidealisticenvironmentallegislation.Thiswillnotbeeasy.
4
WaterandEnergy: WillThereBeEnough?
A
llofthemostbasicnaturalresourcesneededforhumanlifearenow eithergrowingscarceorarefrequentlypolluted.Forthemostpart, thereasonforthisisatwofolddevelopmentinthetwentiethcentury— unprecedentedpopulationincreasesinunderdevelopedcountries,where percapitaconsumptionhasgrownonlyslowlyatbest;andunprecedentedincreasesofpercapitaconsumptioninindustrializedcountries,where populationsarenowstableordeclining.Thusthesqueezecomesfrom twodirections,andinneithercaseisthereanylikelihoodofanyearly relief.InAsia,Africa,andLatinAmericapopulationscontinuetogrow,althoughataslowerpacethaninthelatetwentiethcentury.Inthewealthy partsoftheworld,consumptioncontinuestogrowatanincreasingrate. Andthe80percentwholagbehindinconsumptionaspiretotheliving standardsofthewealthy.Theearth,itseems,doesnothavetheresources tosupporttheirdreams,andmaynothavetheresourcestoaccommodatea50percentincreaseinpopulationamongthepoor,evenatpresent levelsofconsumption,ora50percentincreaseofconsumptionamong thewealthy.Theviceistighteningalready,anditwillgettighterstillin thecomingdecades.
THESQUEEZE Inthepast,sparsepopulationsinprimitivepartsoftheearthcouldlive onhunting,fishing,andgathering,andonwaterfromspringsorstreams. Inacoldclimate,theyneededprotectiveclothing,usuallygainedfrom 65
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furs,andsomeformofshelter,suchasacaveoradugoutorawooden cabin.Withoutthought,theybreathedtheeverplentifulair.Theyused firetocookfoodandwarmtheirshelters.Theyusedhandtoolsmade frombones,stones,orwoodtoaidinthehunt,infoodpreparation,and inmakingclothing.Theneededresourceslayallaboutthem.Buteven primitivehumanscouldoverhuntthegameortaketoomanyfishfrom streams.They also faced droughts, when the berries and nuts did not growandspringsandstreamsdriedup.Eventheycouldfaceascarcityof basicresources,andperishfromthirstandhunger. In time, as humans gained more and more mastery over natural resources,populationscouldgrow.Peoplelearnedtocultivatecrops, domesticateanimalsforfoodandtheirlabor,smeltcopperandiron togainbettertools,irrigatedesertsoils,and,finally,inthegreatest revolutionofall,usefallingwaterorblowingwindortheburningof organicfuelsinenginestodomostoftheproductiveworkformerly done by hand tools or by their domesticated animals. In this long process,theygraduallygainedanearcompletedominanceovertheir naturalenvironment,andliterallytransformedtheearthforthebenefitofhumans.Withoutthistransformation,theearthcouldnotsupportevenabillionpeople,letalonethepresent6.5billion.Themost basicresourcesforthesupportofthelargenumberofhumanstoday arefood,air,soil,water,andsourcesofenergy.Sincefoodiscritical, and soil so foundational, I have treated them in an earlier chapter. Airremainsplentiful,andthustheproblemsofcleanairarepartof thechapteronpollution.Thisleavestworesourcesthatare,insome places,alreadyscarce—waterandenergy.Theyareboundtobecome scarcerstillinthisnewcentury.
WATER Wateristhemostabundantsubstanceonthefaceoftheearth.Insome sense,itwillneverbescarce.Thesupply,intheformofvapor,fluids,and solids,isalmostconstant(photosynthesisinvolvesachemicalbreakingof thehydrogenandoxygenbond,oralossofsomewater,butotherphotochemicalprocessescreatewater,suchasthemergingofoxygenand methaneinthestratosphereorcombustionofhydrocarbons,whilesmall amountsofwaterenterouratmosphereonmeteorsorcomets).Animals andplantsusewater,butdonotdestroyit.Thisisalsotrueofmostin-
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dustrialusesofwater,whichmayinvolvetheheatingorthepollution ofwater.Yet,formanyplantsandanimals,includingthehumananimal, watermaybescarce.Itisaproblemofwhere,andinwhatform,wateris present.Over97percentoftheearth’swaterisintheoceansandhastoo muchsaltfortheuseofmostlandplantsoranimals.Ofthe2.5percent thatisfreshwater,abouttwo-thirdsislockedupinglaciers.Thismeans thatslightlylessthan1percentoftheearth’swaterisfreshandinliquid form.Mostofthisfreshwaterisinaquifers,someallbutinaccessible. Butthisstillleavesalotofaccessiblewater,uptotwothousandcubic metersforeachpersoneachyear.Thiswatercanbeusedoverandover againifitremainsfresh(withoutsalt)andclean(withoutpollutants). In a case of extreme need, humans can desalinize seawater, or melt glaciers,butonlyineachcasebytheexpenditureofthatotherbasic resource—energy. Theoceansarethesourceofmostofourfreshwater.Heatfromthe sunevaporateswaterattheocean’ssurface,leavingbehindmostmineral content(salts).Thewatervaporremainsintheatmosphereonlyafew days,onaverage,foritcondensesintodropletsandfallsasrainorsnow. Overtwo-thirdsoftherainfallsbackintotheoceans,buttherestfallson land,andthusprovidestheever-presentsourceofwaterforhumanconsumption.Thiswaterfromprecipitationtakesmanypaths,butiteventually flows back into the oceans—mostly via rivers, but small amounts returnasrainfallthatbeganasmoisturefromvegetativetranspiration or evaporated fresh water and then moved over oceans.The journey backtotheoceanscanbelongforsomewater,particularlythatstored forcenturiesindeepaquifers.ByoneUnitedNationsestimate,about 8percentofwaterinvolvedinthishydrologicalcycleisusedeachyear byhumans,whiletheyuseoverhalfofthestreamflow,mostlyforirrigation,withthenexthighestusebeingforhydroelectricpowerorthe coolingofsteamandnuclearplants.Notethatineachcasethewater is arrested in its cycle, but not diminished.Water used for irrigation willeitherevaporateonitswaytocrops,movedownintogroundwater (whichfeedssprings),orspendsometimeinthetissuesofplants.But irrigation,althoughnotdestructiveofwater,doesreducestreamflow, oftentotheextentofdryingupthedeltasofsuchmajorriversasthe Indus,Nile,andColorado. Forallanimals,themostimportantuseofwaterisfordrinking.Only inveryrarecasesarehumans,anywhere,withoutaccesstosomefresh
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600 Rural
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Fig. 6. People without safe drinking water (data fromWHO/UNICEF). (United Nations,GlobalChallenge,GlobalOpportunity,18.)
water.They rarely die from thirst. But many die from polluted water. In fact, around 1.2 billion of the world’s population drink water that isunsafe(seefigure6).Over1billionlackaccesstoanypublicwater system,eventotheextentofahydrantalongastreet.Today,roughlyhalf theworld’spopulation,orover3billionpeople,liveincities.InAfrica, lessthanhalfofcitydwellershaveanyaccesstoamunicipalwatersupply,andlessthanafourthhaveaccesstosanitarysewersorevensanitary privies.Thus,intheworldasawhole,theproblemisnotaccesstodrinkingwater,buttosafewater.Inthelasttwodecades,theworldhasmade progresstowardsaferwater,inbothurbanandruralareas.Inpart,this hasresultedfromeducation,andfrominexpensive,localtactics,suchas chlorinecapsulestopurifydrinkingwater.Inpart,italsohasresulted frombetterwatertreatmentanddeliverysystemsincities.Butanyone who has traveled to almost any underdeveloped country can testify to thecontinuingproblemofunsafewater,notonlyfordrinkingbutfor personalhygiene(teethbrushing,bathing,foodpreparation). TheWorld Health Organization has set a minimum goal for water availabilityforpersonaluse—justoverfivegallonsoftreatedwateraday per person, available within one kilometer of one’s home.The United NationsWorldWaterAssessmentProgrammehassetahighergoal—to reduce,byhalf,allpeoplewithoutsafewaterandsanitaryfacilitiesby
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Municipal
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Fig.7.Globalwaterconsumption(datafromWorldWaterCouncil).(United Nations,GlobalChallenge,GlobalOpportunity,10.)
2015(theyareontargetforwater,notsoforsanitation),andtoprovidebothsafewaterandsanitaryfacilitiestoallpeople(anestimated8 billion)by2025,alaudablebutsurelyimpossiblegoal.Itdefinesasits goaltheavailabilityofthirteengallonsofsafewateraday,withinafew hundredmetersofeachfamily.Comparedtotheamountusedinmost developedcountries,eventhismayseemsmall,plentytodrinkbutbarely enough for a daily bath, not enough to flush a commode more than twoorthreetimes,tosaynothingofwashingclothesorwaterusedin cooking.Yet,fewoftheurbanpoorinunderdevelopedcountriesreceive thismuch,evenwhentheyhaveaccesstotreatedandsafewater.Mostof thepoorpeopleintheworldhavenoaccesstosewers;theyflushno toilets.Mostbatheinpollutedstreams,iftheybatheatall,anditis insuchstreamsthattheywashclothes.Pollutedwateristhusoneof themajorhealthproblemsworldwide.ByUnitedNationsestimates, itkills4millionpeopleayear,morethanhalfofthemchildren,with diarrhea being the leading cause. But in this chapter I do not want tofocusonhuman-causedpollution(forthat,seechapter6),buton the availability of fresh water.Almost 90 percent of this freshwater isusedinirrigation(seefigure7).1However,someofthesamewater usedfordownstreamirrigationhasearlierbeenusedinhouseholdsor industries.
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IRRIGATIONANDDAMS Untilhumansbeganmovingwatertoplants,almostalllandvegetation dependedonprecipitation,withtheexceptionsbeingstreambankseepageor,inrarecases,coastalfogs.Irrigationseemstohavebegunwiththe earliestcivilizations,whichinmostcasesaroseinaridregions(Egypt, Mesopotamia,India).Onetheoryisthattheneedforirrigationhelped stimulatethetypeofcoordinationandsocialorderthatmarkedthefirst civilizations. If one had been able to view the earth from an orbiting satellitefivethousandyearsago,themosttellingproofofhumanoccupationwouldhavebeenirrigationcanalsandditches.Humancontrolover thewaterneededforcropshasremainedofvitalimportance.Withoutit, theearthcouldnotsupportitspresentpopulation. Althoughonlyabout16percentofcultivatedlandisnowirrigated, thissameacreageproducesapproximately40percentofallfood.Inmany poorcountries,irrigationaccountsforuptotwo-thirdsofallcrops,and inalmosteverycountrytheleveloffarmincomeismuchhigherinirrigatedareas(reflectingthehighercapitalcommittedtosuchfarming). One of the three main grains—rice—is, in many areas of cultivation, dependentonfieldflooding,eveninhumidclimates.Althoughirrigation producesitsownproblems(mostoftenthebuildupofsaltsorwaterloggedsoils),inmostcasesthesecurewatersupplyofirrigationinsures higheryields.Today,inunderdevelopedareasoftheworld,thosewhich faceimminentfoodshortages,almostnosoilsremainunexploitedinhumidareas,meaningthatthefutureexpansionoffarmingwillbeinarid orsemi-aridareas.Thiswillincreasethedemandforirrigation,placing morepressureonstreamsorundergroundwatersupplies.Inadditionto thisexpansion,eveninhumidareasfarmersindevelopedcountriesare increasinglyusingsupplementalirrigationtoincreaseyieldsortoprotect againstextendeddroughts. Thewaterforirrigationcomesfromtwomainsources—groundwaterandstreams.Onedramaticexceptionistheuseofexpensivedesalinatedseawaterinoil-richcountriessuchasSaudiArabia.Earlyirrigation wasfromstreamflow.Wellstappedgroundwaterforhumanuses,orfor livestock,butuntiltheinventionofwind-andmotor-drivenpumpsthey were not a practical, or dependable, source of water for any extensive irrigation(groundwaterfindsanoutletinspringsorartesianwells,and thus joins surface runoff in feeding streams). Depending on the type
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ofunderlyingrockandsoil,atacertaindepththesoilorporousrock becomessaturatedwithwater.Thislevel,ortable,whichundulateswith thecontoursoftheterrain,canvaryseasonally,anddropextensivelyin droughtyears.Inthepast,hand-dugwellshadtopenetratethistableto assureasteadyflowofwater.Inaridclimates,onlydeepwells,which requiremodernwell-diggingequipment,canreachthewatertable.This groundwaterflows,exitingmostofteninsprings,whichmarkthelocationatwhichthewatertableisatorclosetothesurface.Butifhumans draw too much of this water from wells, the table drops, springs dry up, and the base flow of creeks and rivers shrinks.Thus most shallow groundwaterisaverylimitedandfragilesourceofirrigationwater. Notsoindeepandoftenclosedaquifers.Thesearelargevolumesof waterthataccumulateinporousrockovercenturies,butunderneathalayerofrocksalmostimpervioustowater.Thismeansaverygradualcharging ofanaquifer,andattimesanequallyslowexitofthenearlytrappedwater. Someaquifersarehuge,extendingoverhundredsofmilesandcontaining whatmayseemunlimitedamountsofwater.Deepwellsthatpenetrate therockbarrierandreachsuchaquifersseemtoprovideplentyofwater forirrigation,andindeedtheflowmaycontinuefordecadesorevencenturies,orindefinitelyifthepumpingofwateronlymatchestheannual seepagethatreplenishestheaquifer.Ifthewelltapsanaquiferatthelow pointofaslopingpool,thewaterpressuremayforcethewatertothe surface(anartesianwell),likeagusherinanoilfield. InbothnorthernIndiaandChina,uptohalfofirrigationwaternow comesfromprivatewellsthattapintogroundwateroreasilyaccessible aquifers.Butintime,iftheoutflowexceedstheslowrateofcharging, eventhelargestaquiferswillshrink,requiringeverdeeperwells.Eventually,theycandryup.IntheUnitedStates,overthepasthalfcentury aboutone-fifthofallirrigationwaterhascomefromthehugeOgallala aquiferunderthegreatplains(SouthDakotatoTexas).By1970,farmers wereusingitswaterattentimestherateofinflow.TheshrinkingOgallala maylastonlyanothertwentyyears.Thewelldepthrequiredtotapithas alreadysoincreasedastoleadfarmerstogiveuponthissource,andin NorthTexastheannualtakeisdeclining.Theaffectedstateshavenegotiatedagreementslimitingitsuse.Becauseoftheslowcharging,almostall modernirrigationbasedoneithershallowordeeperandclosedaquifers isnonsustainable.Theultimatelimitisannualprecipitation. The same is true for flowing streams. Rainwater either feeds them
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directly,inrunoff,orindirectly,bywayofgroundwateroraquifersthat findanoutletinsprings.Theproblemwithstreamsisunevenflow.In manyrivers,thebaseflow(fromsprings,somefedbydeepaquifers)is onlyatenthofthatofpeakflows,afterwintersnowmeltorheavyspring rains.Indryperiods,asthewatertablesinks,streamslosemoreandmore waterbyseepage.Inhotweather,theylosewaterbyevaporation.Often theloweredflowcoincideswiththetimecropsneedthemostwaterfor irrigation.Evenancientcivilizationstriedtocopewiththisproblemby buildinglowearthendams,creatingreservoirstosaveatleastsomeof thespringrunoff.Buttosavemostofthetotalannualrunoffrequiresnumeroushighdams,andtechnologiesofdambuildingthatonlymatured in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. High dams could also serve other purposes—reserves of water for urban water systems, hydroelectricproduction(damsnotonlycreatethefallingwaterforturbinesbutsostorewaterastomaintainanevenflowovertheyear),flood control(tocapturefloodwaters,butnotethatthetimingforthismay notbeconsistentwithmaximumenergyproduction),andwatersports. Althoughnotthemosteconomicalwaytoimprovenavigation,andthus the transport of goods, high dams could, with large locks, serve this purposealso.Today,exceptinsomeArcticareas,mostriversaretosome extentunderhumancontrol(thisincludeslevysystemsaswellasdams), anduptotwo-thirdsofthewaterreachingtheoceanshaspassedoveror throughdams. Damsarenowanecessity.Asthepopulationsurgesto9billion,irrigationwillbecomeevenmoreimportant.Hereisthemainavenuefor increasedfoodoutputinmanypartsoftheworld.Theincreasedoesnot havetorequiremorewater.Atpresent,mostirrigationsystemsarevery inefficient (as low as 25 percent of source water reaches the roots of plants).Whenwaterismovedbyopen,unlinedcanals,seepageandevaporationcanstealuptohalftheoriginalwater.Whenthewaterreachesthe cropsbyfloodingofditchesorbyspray,moreofthewateriswastedby evaporationorbyabsorptionbysoilthatdoesnotcontaincroproots.If movedtocropsbyconcrete-linedcanalswithsometypeofcover,and fedtoplantsbyadripsystem,asinIsrael,irrigationcanreachmaximumefficiency(upto60percentormore).Suchasystemcouldexpandproductioninnowfullyexploitedriversystems(Indus,Colorado, Niger)byupto50percent.Butfewcountriescanaffordsuchcapital costs,whichareuptothreetimesgreaterthaninditchirrigation.Note
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thatirrigationwaterlosttoevaporationorseepageisnotnecessarilya completeloss,foritmayincreaserainfallorleavemorewaterfordownstreamusers. Dripsystemsalsoslowtheprocessofsalinization.Becauseofevaporation,mineralsinriverwatercanslowlyaccumulateinirrigatedsoilsin aridareas,eventuallycurtailingandevenendingproduction.Thepresent means of postponing this disaster is the use of extra water, water notneededbyplants,toflushasmanysaltsaspossibledeeperintothe subsoil,fromthissubsoilintodrainagepipesandditches,andtheninto heavilypollutedholdingpondsorlakes.Withoutproperdrainage,this extraflushingwatercanleadtowaterloggedsoil,withsomeofthesalt backinguptotherootsofplants.Ultimately,nofinalanswerexistsforsalinizationincertainsoilsorclimates.Onlylongperiodsofnoncropping allowslimitedrainfalltolowerthesaltcontentofsoil,withtherecovery timedeterminedbytheamountofannualrainfall.Supplementalirrigation in humid areas largely avoids this problem, because of the flushingeffectofnormalrainfall.Despiteallthesecosts,irrigationnormally paysforitselfinincreasedandsecureproduction.Butinmostareasof the world, the future of irrigation is clouded.That based on aquifers isnonsustaining.Riverineirrigationleadstosalinization,waterlogging, anddangerousdrainage.Mostcritical,inareasofgreatestneedtheriver waterisalreadyfullyused.Theproblemsareregionalinnatureandhave tobesolvedlocally(itisalmostimpossibletoimportlargequantitiesof water).Infullyuseddrainageareas,onlyexpensivedripsystemscanincreasefoodproduction.Withoutthesehighcapitalcosts,manycountries havenorecoursebutincreasedimportationoffood.Byoneestimate,in 2025around1.8billionpeoplewillliveincountrieswithoutenough watertomaintainpresentfoodproduction,and350millionmorewill beabletomaintainpresentproductiononlybylargeandveryexpensive waterprojects.2 Agrowingscarcityofwaterforirrigationisregionalinnature.Plenty ofunused,orunderused,agriculturallandremainsinhumid,developed countries,suchastheUnitedStates.ButitiscentralAfricaandmuchof Asiathatalreadysufferfromfoodshortages,andintheveryareaswhere irrigationisnecessary.Foodhabitshavesomethingtodowithwater.By anoft-statedrule,ittakesonethousandpoundsofwatertoproduceone poundoffood.Butthisdependsonthefood.Itisroughlycorrectfor cornandwheat(worldwide,grainistheleadingfood),butitunderstates
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thewaterneededforrice.Iteasilytakesfourtimesasmuchwaterfor eachpoundofgrain-fattenedbeef.Thus,poorcountrieswithstableor decliningagriculturalproductionanddevelopingwatershortagescannot affordmuchbeef,orevenhogsorchickens. Thedemandsofirrigationcanclashwithotherwaterneeds,andin many river basins already do so, including the Colorado basin in the United States. Fortunately, most industrial uses of water, as in hydroelectric generation, or cooling in thermal plants, do not use up water andneednotsopolluteitastorenderitunfitforirrigation.Wastewater fromhouseholduse,iftreated,canalsoirrigatecrops.Sinceamajorityof urbanareasareclosetotheocean,welldownstreamfromthesiteofirrigatedfarms,theuseoftheirtreatedwastewateronfarmsrequirescostly infrastructureandpumping.However,thetreatedwastewaterfrominland cities is routinely reused in downstream water systems, factories, orfarms.Inunderdevelopedcountries,muchuntreatedwastewater,or waterfromseverelypollutedstreams,endsupinirrigationcanals,resultinginnumeroushealthhazards. Anotherproblemisthattheuseofpracticallyallwaterfromstreams canhavedevastatingenvironmentaleffects.Depletedriversnolongerfeed vitalwetlandsanddeltas,orsustainfishandotherorganisms.Thus,most countrieswillfaceincreasedpressuretomaintainsomeminimallevelof riverflowallyearround,whichcanseverelylimittheamountavailable forirrigation.InmuchofAsiaandaridareasofAfrica,theoveruseof runoffwaterhasalreadyhaddevastatingeffectsonecosystems. Even more than strip-mining, dams and their often huge humanmade lakes have changed the face of the earth.The original, and now mostoftenprimary,reasonfordamsisirrigation,andstillisinsomeof theworld’sgreatriverbasins(Nile,Niger,Indus,Volga,TigrisandEuphrates,Ganges,Columbia,Po,Yellow,Colorado,Missouri).However,all butthelowestdamsnowservemultiplepurposes.Inthemostcontrolled riversystemintheworld,theTennessee,thenumeroushighdamsarein oneofthehighestrainfallsectionsoftheworld.Littlewaterisneeded forirrigationthere,andthedamsprimarilyprovideelectricityandflood control. From about 1880 until 1970, the creation of more and more damsseemedtobeawondroushumanachievement,withgreatpopular support.TheTennesseeValleyAuthority became a symbol of multipurposeriverdevelopment.Imitationsseemedtoofferamajorpathwayto progressinunderdevelopedcountries,wheretheenthusiasmfordams
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remains.Butintheindustrializedworld,andwherestrongenvironmentalmovementshaveemerged,theearlierenthusiasmhasturnedtodoubt, to a new critical evaluation, and in some cases to efforts to dismantle olderdams. Itisfutiletobemoanmostpastdamconstruction.Withoutthewater managementtheyallow,theworldsimplycouldnotsupportitspresent population.Yet,thecostofdamsishigh,muchhigherthanrealizedin the heyday of great river basin projects. How one balances advantages againstcostsseemstodependontheperspectiveoftheobservers.High dams inundate good farmland or forests, displace people, disrupt fish migrations,andendangerthehabitatofanimals.Yettheysupplyamore environmentallyfriendlyformofelectricitythansteamplants,support vastirrigationprojects,reduceorsuppressfloods,oftenexpandnavigationalchannels,andoffermanyrecreationalopportunities.Whenallthe waterofariveriscontainedandused,theeffectscanbedisastrousfor thedelta.NeithertheIndusnortheColoradonowflowtotheseainmost years,andtheflowoftheNileisdrasticallyreduced.Thishasreduced deltawetlands,allowedseawatertopenetrateinland,stoppedthegrowth ofdeltas,insomecasesledtoaretrenchmentofland,anddestroyedthe habitatofbothmarineandlandspecies.InKazakhstanandUzbekistan, large,Soviet-inauguratedirrigationprojectshaveallbuteliminatedthe limitedannualflowofwaterintothehugebutshallowArialSea,which has shrunk to less than a third of its original expanse and now seems doomedtoendupasasaltflat,withhugecoststolocalpopulations,includingalossoffishandmanybirdandmammalspecies.Evenleviesto constrictordeepentheflowofstreamscanhaveadverseenvironmental effects,asprovedbytheMississippi,whichhasconcentratedadamagingamountofsiltinagrowingdelta.ThemodernMississippihasalso drainedvaluablewetlandsandmarsheswhichwereformerlyreplenished byalesscontrolledriver. Inthelastthreedecades,dambuildinghasreachedanewthreshold insheersizeandscope.Fourprojectshavedwarfedthesizeofformer world record-setting dams, such as Hoover and Grand Coulee in the UnitedStates.Eachofthefourhavebeenverycontroversial,andwillbe moresointhefuture.TwoofthesedamsareontheParanáRiver,which risesincentralBrazilandlatermarkstheboundarybetweenBraziland Paraguay,andthenArgentinaandParaguay.Bothareprimarilyhydroelectricprojects,andthusnotmajorsourcesofirrigationandfoodproduc-
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tion.Thefirstofthese,atleastinconceptionandearlyconstruction,but notcompletion,wasthelowerofthetwo,theYacyretáProjectbetween ArgentinaandParaguay,adamnotyetfullycompleted,andonemarked bycorruptionandinternationalcontroversy.TheotheristheItaipuDam, between Brazil and Paraguay, but largely a Brazilian project. Over 600 feethigh,andfivemileswide,itwasatcompletionthelargesthydroelectricprojectintheworld(12.6millionkilowattsfrom18turbines), and would remain so until the near completion ofThree Gorges Dam inChinain2006.ThisChinesedamis594feethigh,withanexpected reservoir370mileslong,632squarekilometersinarea,holding28.9 billioncubicyardsofwater.Its26generatorswillproduce18.2million kilowattsofelectricity(one-ninthofthepresentuseinChina),probably arecordforalltime.Accordingtocritics,itisanecologicaldisaster.But itisinahumidareaofChina,andprimarilyapowerdam,notanirrigationdam. NotsotheAswanDaminEgypt,themostimportantirrigationdam intheworld.Itisnotthelargestorhighest.Itshydrooutputisrelatively modest,notonlybecausetheflowoftheNileisonlythatofamid-sized river,butalsobecauseinmostyearsthereservoir(LakeNasser)isnot full.But,atleastuntilthecompletionoftheThreeGorgesDam,Aswan wasbyfarthedamthatwasmostcentral,andcritical,toasinglecountry. Withoutthedam,Egypttodaywouldnotbeabletosupportitsgrowing population(upfrom21millionin1950to77millionin2005).TounderstandthepresentEgyptianeconomy,onemustgrasptheroleofthis onedam. TheNileisthelifebloodofEgypt.Noothercountryissodependent onasingleriver.Egyptisadesert.OnlyirrigationwaterfromtheNile makesextensivehumanhabitationpossible.AlmostallEgyptianslivein anarrowstriponbothsidesoftheriver.Historically,theNileprovided water for irrigating early summer crops, but in the fall it flooded the low-lyinglandsalongitsbanks.ThefloodswereavitalaspectofEgyptian agriculture.Theydepositedalayerofsilteachyear,whichcontinuously restoredthefertilityofthesoil,allowingcontinuouscroppingyearafter year.Also,thefloodsflushedoutanysaltsaccumulatedfromirrigation, solvingtheproblemofsalinizationfacedinmostirrigatedareasofthe world. But like all rivers, the Nile was not always benign. In cyclical droughts,itfloodsdiminishedandcropssuffered.Asoftenaseverydecade,hugefloodsthreatenedthecitiesandvillages.
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Even before 1900, the need for a secure water supply led to small damsandin1901athenlargedamatAswan.Aslaterenlarged,itcould captureuptoone-tenthofthewatersfromtheaverageannualflood,and providedwaterforirrigationprojectsjustbelowAswan.ByWorldWarII itwasclearthatahighdamatAswan,giventhetopography,couldcapturemorethantheannualfloodwaters,andthusallowacontrolleduse ofalltheNilewatersforirrigation.Itcouldendtheannualfloods,and withthisalmostallthedamagestheycouldcause.Butitwouldalsoend theannualsiltation.Ahighdamcouldthusbringoneofthegreatrivers oftheworldunderfullhumancontrol,orinasenseturntheNilebelow Aswanintotheworld’slargestirrigationcanal.Humanscouldmanageall theannualflowoftheNile,inwhatwouldbethelargestandmostsecure irrigationsystemintheworld.Theolder,lowerdamremained,andother leviesandcontrolmechanismssupplementedAswan. TheAswanDamcametofruitionoutofcoldwarconflict.ThenationalistaspirationsofEgypt’sleader,GamelAbdelNasser,ledtoconflict with Britain, and to the Suez crisis of 1956. By then Britain and the UnitedStateshadrenegedonpromisedfundingfortheAswanDam,so insteadNasserusedSuezrevenuesandsupportfromtheSovietUnionto buildthe11,811-foot-long,364-foot-highdamfrom1960to1971.The dam,whenfull,wouldhavea288-mile-longreservoir,extendinginto theSudan,orwhatwasthenthelargesthuman-madelakeintheworld. ItwassolargethatitcouldeasilyabsorbeventhegreatestofNilefloods, anditevenhadadiversionarytunneltoalowareainthedesertincase itneededtodivertwaterfromthedam.Infact,thelakehasneverbeen full.Thedrytropicalaircausesahighevaporationrate(20percentorso), meaningthatitisdifficulttofill.Butitdoesprovideperfectfloodcontrol.Sofar,ithasofferedcompleteprotectionagainstdrought,butinthe mid-1980s,afterseveraldryyears,Egyptwasclosetohavingtolimitthe waterneededforirrigation.Inthedroughtyearsitproducedlesselectricity.Atfullflow,itcouldproduceover2millionkilowattsofelectricity, orapproximatelyone-halfoftheEgyptiandemandatcompletion(itis nowlessthan15percent). AswangaveatremendousboosttoEgyptianagriculture,morethan doublingitspotentialyield.Withnoflooding,farmerscouldgrowtwo orthreecropsayear,withanassuredsupplyofwater.Thishasenabled Egypttofeeditsnowinflatedpopulation.Ofcourse,itsufferedtheproblemsthathauntirrigationeverywhere—waterloggedsoilswhendrain-
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age systems were inadequate, salinization, and the need to replace the earlierflood-bornesiltwithfertilizer,which,alongwithpesticides,created the usual environmental problems.The lake absorbs a large input ofsilteachyear,andeventuallythiswillreducethevolumeofwaterfor floodcontrolandirrigation(suchisitssizethataserioussiltingproblem ismorethanacenturyaway).TheNiledeltahasstoppedexpanding,and isnowwithdrawingasseawatermovesfartherinland.Deltafishinghas declined,evenasthemixoffishintheeasternMediterraneanhasshifted becauseofthedearthoffreshwaterinflow.ThousandsofEgyptianshad tomoveoutofthelowerdelta,whilemostcoastalresortswerestranded or destroyed.The resettlement of peasants, particularly Nubians in the Sudan,ledtonumerousinjustices,notbynecessitybutforpoliticalreasons.Despitealltheproblems,thedamgaveEgyptatleastathirty-year reprieveonaloomingdemographiccrisis,butthatmaybeall.Moreefficiencyinthemovementanduseofirrigationwater,andinindustrial andhouseholdusesofwater,plusfurtherimprovementsinagricultural yields,maypostponeafoodcrisisforafewdecadesmore,butnotindefinitelyifthepopulationdoesnotstabilize.Acontinuationofglobal warming, and more droughts in the centralAfrican headwaters of the Nile,couldhastenthecrisis. Likesomanyotherproblemsconfrontingthecontemporaryworld, loomingwaterscarcitiesandwaterpollutiongenerallyafflictcountries leastabletoaffordcorrectivestrategies.Inthenextcentury,watershortages may become the most critical of environmental concerns. Global warmingmayadverselyaffectwatersuppliesinmanycountries,although nooneatpresentcanpredicttheexactregionalimpactofwarmingon localprecipitationandratesofevaporation.Likesoil,cleanwaterisnot easilymovedfromareasofplentytoareasofscarcity.Thisistrueevenof drinkingwater,wherepackagingandtransportcostscanmakewatertoo expensiveforpoorpeopleinunderdevelopedcountries.Thus,thechallengeofprovidingsafewaterforhouseholduseandforirrigationisa regionalproblem,atleastsofar.Itisasofyetarelativelyminorproblem inawater-blessedUnitedStates,exceptfortheColoradoRiverBasin.Fortunately,here,Americanscanaffordconservationstrategies.Theywillnot sufferoverlymuchifthecitizensofLosAngelesorPhoenixhavetoplay golfonbrownfairways,closedowntheirswimmingpools,stopwashing carsorwateringgrassexceptfromtheirownwastewater,andevenbathe every other day rather than once or twice a day.They will suffer only
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slightlyhigherfoodcostsiffarmersinthegreatvalleyofCaliforniahave tolineandcovertheirirrigationcanals,orevenadoptadripsystemfor orchardsandvegetablecrops.Buttheseprecautionsmaynotbeenough ifthepopulationoftheSouthwestcontinuestoriseandifacycleoflow precipitation (the present one began in 1999) continues to afflict the RockiesthatfeedtheColorado.
ENERGY Mosttechniquesthatcouldhelpalleviateregionalshortagesofwater,and oftenalsofoodshortagestiedtoalackofirrigationwater,involvelarge inputsofenergy,mostofallthedesalinizationofseawater.Thus,energy and water are intimately linked resources, even apart from flowing or fallingwater’sbeingusedasamajorsourceofenergy.Ihereusetheword energyforwhateverdoeswork,whateverdirectsandchannelschanges inthephysicalworld.Forhumans,foodisthefuelforsuchwork,nerves andmusclesthemechanismsthatuseuptheenergyprovidedbyfood. Primitive humans had only muscle power for work. But because, alone among mammals, they had developed languages and were selfconscious,theywereveryadeptattoolbuilding.Tools,bestsymbolized byahoeandabow,leveragedtremendouslytheworkoftheirmuscles. Buthowevercomplexthetools,food,asmetabolized,remainedthemain sourceofenergytoaccomplishhumangoals.Theonegreatexception was fire. In a sense, one might refer to fire as a tool. But in this case, humansonlycapturedandcontrolled,ordeliberatelyinitiated,acomplexchemicalinteraction,andlettheradiatedenergyprovidewarmth inwinterandpalatablefoodsyearround.Controlledfirescouldcluster animalsforakill,orcouldclearawaytreesortangledgrassestomake tillablefields.Eventoday,withthethousandsofchemicalprocessesunder humancontrol,combustionremainsthelargestsourceofproductiveenergyworldwide.Controlledburningpropelsmostofourships,airplanes, trains,andautomobiles,andintheUnitedStatesitgeneratesmostofour electricity. Butforthousandsofyears,domesticatedanimalsrivaledcontrolled burningasanenergysourceforhumans.Musclepowerdominated,but inthiscaseitwasthemusclesofhorses,oxen,orcamels.Topayforthis energy,humanshadtoprocurefoodfortheiranimals,attimesbysimply lettingthemforage,attimesbycollectinghayorgrainfortheiruse.But
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amanwithahorsecouldraisetentimesasmuchcornasonewithonly a hoe.The dominance of animal power only ended in the nineteenth andearlytwentiethcenturies,andinsomeareasoftheworlditisstill dominant. Twoothersourcesofpower—fallingwaterandblowingwind—have ancientorigins.SimplesailstosupplementoarsdatebacktoearlyEgypt. BytheseventhcenturyB.C.E.,thePersianshaddevelopedmountedsails, orearlywindmills,topowergrainmills.Becausethewindblowsonlyintermittently,thewindmillwasbestadaptedtowaterpumps,fordrainage orforstoredwaterinreservoirs,butinlow-lyingcountrieslikeHolland, withlittlewaterpower,largewindmillsturnedthemillstonesinflour mills.TheearliestrecordofawaterwheelisinGreeceinabout65B.C.E. Itwasusedtoturnamillstone.Suchwaterwheelswerewidelyusedin theRomanEmpireandinMedievalEurope.Theywerethemainsource ofpowerforflourmills,forlatersawmills,andforsometypesofwater pumps.Bytheeighteenthcentury,fallingwater,sometiedtodams,becamethemainsourceofpowerfortextilemillsandotherearlyfactories, suchasrollingmillsforsteel.Theboomintextilemillsinearlynineteenth-centuryNewEnglandwasdependentuponwaterpoweralongthe falllinesofrivers.Onlyinthelatenineteenthcenturydidsteamengines slowlydisplacewaterpowerinmostfactories.ThroughoutAmerica,until wellintothetwentiethcentury,mostflourandmealwasstillgroundby millstonesturnedbywaterwheels,whileinaridareaswindmillspumped mostwateruntilelectrificationinthelasthalfofthetwentiethcentury. Withelectrification,fallingwaterassumedanewimportance,andworldwideabout20percentofallgenerationisbywater,withsomemountainouscountriesalmostcompletelydependentonhydropower.Wind, almosteclipsedbyothersourcesofenergy,ismakingacomebackforthe generationofsupplementalelectricity. Fromanenvironmentalperspective,thedevelopmentofsteampower was momentous in its implications. Heated water turns to steam, and whenconfinedthesteamcanbuildupahighpressure.Theproblemis howtousethispressuretodoworkforhumans.Attheendoftheseventeenthcentury,inEngland,inventorsfoundawaytousesteamtocreate avacuumtodrawwater.Soonthereaftertheydevelopedapistonforsuch pumps.Onlyafter1765didJamesWattandothersperfectconnecting rodsandrotationmechanismstousesteamtoturnshaftsandpulleys.By 1800severalsteamengines,withincreasinglyhigherpressureinboilers,
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had begun to replace falling water in textile mills and soon afterward inrollingmills.Thisenabledfactoriestomovefromalongrivers,even thoughtheefficiencyofsuchengineswaslowbymodernstandards.In 1803anEnglishinventorfirstusedasteamenginetoturnwheels,orthe prototypeofthelocomotive.By1830thegreatrailroadboomwasunder wayinEngland,andsoonintherestofEuropeandintheUnitedStates. Asearlyas1805,asteamenginewasusedonabarge,andgraduallythey becamethemainsourcesofpowerforships.Thus,inlessthanacentury, steamhadrevolutionizedbothfactoryproductionandtransportation.Today,steamisstillimportantinbothindustries,butineachcaselargely throughtheintermediaryofelectricity.Steamplantsstillproduceover halfoftheelectricityusedintheUnitedStates. With steam power, the oldest source of nonmuscle energy for humans, fire, came once again to the forefront. Fire is now the slave of humans,doingmostoftheirworkandexpandingthepotentialoutput ofmusclepowerbythehundredsoreventhousands.Itisquitetrue,in purely physical terms, that the average automobile engine can do the workof150horses(horsepower).Thefuelforthisworkishydrocarbons,whichburninthepresenceofsufficientoxygen.Mostofthese are the residue of past life (thus fossil energy), although in much of theunderdevelopedworldthehydrocarbonslargelycomefrombiomass (wood,deadgrass,drieddung)anddonotburninenginesbutheat homesandcookfood.Today,theonlylargecompetitorstothepowerof firearehydroandnuclearpower.Alternativesourcesofenergy,suchas geothermal,wind,chemical(asinbatteriesorfuelcells),andsolarcollectors,areallminorsources,buttheymaygrowinimportance.Except for transportation, an increasing share of energy reaches users in the formofelectricity.Purehydrogen,asasecondarysourceofenergy,may haveanimportantfuture.Ifso,itwillresembleelectricity,foritrequires aprimaryfuelinitsproduction.Atpresent,theonlyeconomicalway ofproducingpurehydrogenisfromhydrocarbons,suchasnaturalgas. Asecondandmorecostlysource,electrolysis,requireslargeinputsof electricity. Note that in normal combustion, what really burns is the hydrogen,notthecarbon.Infact,carbonistheproblem,forincombustionmostofitescapesascarbondioxide,therestassmokeparticles (soot)orresidualash.Hydrogen,whenburnedalone,combineswith theatmosphericoxygenthatmakescombustionpossibletocreatewater vapor,anenvironmentallybenignemission.
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Billion Tonnes Oil Equivalent
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Fig.8.Globalenergysupply(datafromIEA).(UnitedNations,GlobalChallenge,Global Opportunity,14.)
ENERGYSCARCITIES Twocriticalissuesattendallourburning.Oneispollution,asubjectaddressedinchapter6.Theotheristheavailabilityoffuel.Willhumanshave enough energy to maintain present levels of consumption in wealthy countries,plusenoughtoraiseincomesintherestoftheworldtosomethingclosetothoseinEuropeandtheUnitedStates?Willtheyhavethe energyneededtosupplytheneedsoftheextra3billionpeoplewhowill beonearthinlessthanfiftyyears?Atpresent,theannualconsumptionof alltypesofenergyhasbeenrisingatarateof1.5percentto2.0percent ayear,withmostofthisreflectingasteadyincreaseinconsumptionin wealthy countries or rapid industrialization in China and India. Fossil fuelssupplymostofthisenergy(seefigure8).Thefutureenergyburden willbedoubledifwealthynationscontinuetoincreasetheiralreadyhigh energyuseandtheother80percentofhumansinpoorercountriestry togaintheneededenergytoclosethepresentlargegapinincomes,a verydifficulttasksincethisiswherealmostallthe3billionextrapeople will be born. If, for example, all humans could attain the present per capitaincomesofAmericans,whoconsumefivetimesasmuchenergy astheworldaverage,andoverfifteentimesasmuchascountrieswith apercapitaincomeofunder$1,000,theenergyneedsof2050would
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bestaggering(easilytentimesthepresentuse).AndthisignorestheexpectedgainsinincomeintheUnitedStatesandotherwealthycountries. Ontheotherhand,tokeepenergydemandsatpresentlevelswouldseem todoomthemajorityofhumanstoperpetualpoverty,unlesswecanfind waystouseexistingenergysourcesmuchmoreefficiently,orfindmagicalnewandinexpensivesourcesofenergy. Energy demands are rising most rapidly in the world’s two most populouscountries,IndiaandChina(37percentoftheworld’stotal). InChina,70percentofelectricalgenerationcomesfromcoal,withits damagingpollution.Chinawillcontinuetodependoncoalformostof itselectricitydespitetheenergyproducedbytheThreeGorgesDam.Even moreominousistherapidshiftfrombicyclesandpublictransportation toautomobilesinbothcountries,butparticularlyinChina.Thefuture possibilities here are staggering. If both India and China had as many automobiles,percapita,astheUnitedStates(almost0.8motorvehicles foreachman,woman,andchild),theywouldhavecloseto2billioncars andtrucks.Theywillneverhavesomany.Butthisnumberdoesindicate thescopeofthepossiblemarketformotorvehiclesinthesetwomost populouscountries. In 2005, China was just beginning to move toward a widespread privateownershipofautomobilesandlighttrucks(over20millionand sure to double by 2010).With economic growth of over 8 percent a year,andarapidlygrowingnumberofaffluentcitizens,thedemandfor automobiles is soaring (5 million a year, or almost a third that of the UnitedStates).Ataslowerpace,Indiaalsohasbeenexperiencingaboom inautomobileuse.Untilrecently,automobilesinthesecountriesdidnot havetomeetthestringentenvironmentalstandardsofwesternEurope andtheUnitedStates,butin2006Chinaintroducedtougheremission standards than those in the United States.This automobile boom is in areaswhereairpollutionisalreadydeadlyforpeoplewithrespiratoryillnesses.ItalsoinsuresthatChina,withinthenexttwodecades,willcome closetomatchingtheUnitedStatesinitsemissionsofgreenhousegases. Aboveall,motorvehiclesnowrequirepetroleum,withneithercountry possessingnearlyenoughlocalreserves.Neithernationwillbequickto choosemoreexpensivealternativestothepresentgasolineengine.One shudderstothinkabouttheeffectonoildemandcausedbythealmost certainexplosioninautomobileuseinIndiaandChinainthenexttwo decades,particularlyifjoinedbythepresentannualincreaseofoilusein
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theUnitedStates(whichconsumesalmostone-fourthofworldproduction). Wehaveonerelativelynewsourceofenergy,withalmostunlimited possibilitiesofexpansion.Thisisnuclearfission.Itsfueliseitherplutoniumoranisotopeofuranium.Plutoniumistheproductofonetypeof nuclearreactor.Themajorconcernsinvolvesafety,whattodowithnuclearwaste,andhowtopreventaspreadingmilitaryuseofatomicenergy. Increasingsafetyconcernsandhighersafetystandardshavemadenuclear reactors uncompetitive given the present cost of fossil fuels. In 2005, nuclearreactorsproducedjustover6percentofallelectricityworldwide. Onlythreeorfourcountriesarenowconstructingnewreactors,while alargeshareofexistingreactorsareoldandclosetoanecessaryclosing. Butincreasingconcernsaboutpollutionandglobalwarmingarealmost certaintospurnew,andsafer,nuclearplantsinthenexttwodecades.A possiblefuturesourceofenergy,againwithalmostunlimitedsourcesof fuel(anisotopeofhydrogenfoundinwater),isnuclearfusion,oran imitationoftheenergyproducedbythesun.Thetechnologicalchallenge isgreat,andthedevelopmentofcontrolledfusion,atleastwithsignificantenergypotentialatcompetitiveprices,isdecadesawayatbest. What about other sources of energy beyond the present big three: fossilfuels,hydro,andnuclear?Itmaybepossible,intheratherdistant future, to imitate volcanoes—that is, to tap the enormous heat in the mantle and use it to fuel steam plants. So far, humans have not developedefficientwaysofusingthedryheatofthemantle,onlythermally heatedwater,andeventhatusageisminuscule,withthelargestamount ofgeothermalproductionbeinginCalifornia.Italsoposesitsownenvironmentalproblems. What we need are new renewable energy sources.At present, the mostpromisingforelectricalgenerationarewindmills,whicharegrowingrapidlyasasupplementalsourceofelectricity.Windisalreadycompetitiveincostinmanyareas.Itstheoreticalpotentialisverylarge,but itsuffersfromtheintermittentnatureofwind.Wehavenowaytostore anylargequantityofelectricity.Butwindfarms,ifpartofageographicallylargeelectricalgrid,couldinpartmitigatethisproblem(thewind wouldbeblowingsomewhereatanyonetime).Also,windpower,like anysourcewithaperiodicexcessgeneratingcapacity,couldbeusedto producehydrogen(throughelectrolysis),whichcouldbeusedinfuel cells.Atleastinthenearfuture,windpowerwillremainatinypartof
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thetotalneedforelectricity,exceptpossiblyinDenmark.Oppositionto noiseandconcernoverbirdkillhavemadeitdifficulttofindsitesfor largewindmillfarmsintheUnitedStates. Solarenergyisnotcompetitiveatpresent.Wehavethemeansofcollectingandfocusingsolarenergytoheatwateronrooftopcollectors,but thiswillremainaminorsource.Thus,inthenearfuturealmostallsolar energywillcomefromphotovoltaiccells.Theircostisstillmanytimes higher than conventional sources of electricity, but they are already a valuablesourceofelectricityinremoteareas.Theuseofsolarcellswill remaindecentralized,withmostcellsontheroofsofhomesorcommercialbuilding.Ifincorporatedinnewconstruction,suchcellsmaybecost effective.Butgiventhegrowingelectricalneedsofthenextfiftyyears, only nuclear energy would seem to offer a likely alternative to power generatedbydamsortheburningoffossilfuels. Inthetransportationsector,themostpromisingpresentalternative topetroleumisethanolderivedfrombiomass.Bothhybridtechnology andtheuseofdieselenginescanincreasetheefficiencyoffossilfuels, butneitherinvolvesarenewableenergysource.Oneexceptionisbiodiesel fuel made from used cooking oil or other vegetative sources, but itspotentialisseverelylimitedbyitsavailability.Ethanolisarenewable fuel,andmuchlesspollutingthanoil(nosulfurandupto80percent lesscarbondioxide).Unlikesuchrevolutionarynewfuelsashydrogen, itrequiresnonewinfrastructure.Itisalreadyamajorsourceoffuelfor automobilesinBrazil(40percentofallfuel),whereamixof85percent ethanoland15percentgasoline(calledE85)isthestandard.Sofar,inthe UnitedStates,mostethanolisusedasanadditivetogasoline,atausual concentrationof10percent.Brazilproducesmostofitsethanolfromthe richestsource,sugarcane.Corn(maize)isthesourceformostethanolin theUnitedStates.Othersmallgrainscanalsobeused.EvenintheUnited States,automobilemanufacturers,particularlyGeneralMotorsandFord, areincreasinglybuildingflexengines,capableofusingeitherE85orgasoline,butfewoutletssellthericherethanolmixture.Midwesternfarmers andagribusinesseslovethefederalsubsidiesthatsupportanewmarket forcorn,andthetariffsthatpreventtheimportationofcheaperethanol fromBrazil.Clearlyethanolhasmuchtorecommendit,despitelower milespergallonandmoreenginecorrosion. But some reservations are in order.At present, the only developed sourceforethanolisagriculture,orhydrocarbon-richplants.Inthecase
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ofAmericancorn(maize),theproductionofethanolmayinvolvealmost as much use of fossil fuels, and as much pollution, as is saved by the reduceduseofgasolineinautomobiles.Theamountofthesecostsisat presentacontroversialissue,buttheyinvolvethepetroleumusedintractorsandin shippingandin theproductionofchemicalfertilizersand pesticides,plusthenaturalgasorotherfossilfuelsusedinfermenting thecornanddistillingthealcohol(theprocessissimilartotheproductionofcornwhiskey).Thus,formostoftheworld,thegreatpromiseof ethanol lies in new, still somewhat experimental, processes of gaining ethanol not from easily harvested sugars or starches in cane or grain, butfromcelluloseincoarsegrasses,bamboo,cornstalks,eventhebark oftrees.Suchcellulosicethanolmaybethemagicalsolutiontogasoline shortagesinthefuture,particularlyinIndiaandChina,butitwillinvolve oftenunacknowledgedcosts.Deadgrassesandweeds,forexample,are thesourcesoforganicmatterinsoil(atypeofmanure).Ifusedupto produceethanol,thefertilityofsoilswillsoondeclinewithouttheuseof chemicalfertilizers.Finally,therequiredamountofsuchfibrousfuels,if theyaretoreplacemostgasoline,isstaggering. Howlongwillourfossilfuelslast?Thisisacomplicatedquestion,one thatinvolvesquitevariedestimatesandengenderspoliticalcontroversy. Whatisclear,inallestimates,isthat,relativetothepresentdemand,oil isnowthescarcestofthethreefossilfuels,gassecond,andcoalthemost abundant.Worldoilproductionisstillgrowingatabout2percentayear, andmaycontinuetogrowforthenexttwodecadesbeforebeginninga necessarydecline.Itmakeslittlesensetoaskwhentheoilsupplywillrun out.Itneverwillinanyabsolutesense.Iftheyarewillingtopayveryhigh prices, humans will always have access to some oil. Each year natural processescreatenewoil.Muchmoreimportant,suppliesofsomenonconventionalsourcesofoil(tarsands,albumin,heavyoil,oroilinshale) willremainindefinitely,sincethecostofprocuringmuchofthisoil,or the environmental effects of producing it, are so high. Older oil wells neverextractedmorethan25percentoftheunderlyingoil,andeventodaythemaximumreturnisatbest50percent.Athighcosts,someofthis remainingoilinabandonedwellscannowbeextracted.Finally,someof thepresentoilsupplycomesfromthechemicalconversionofthehydrocarbonsincoalandnaturalgas.Inotherwords,wecannowmakesome ofthevalueddistillatesthatweusedtogetonlyfrompetroleum.What isofgreatconcerntodayisfuturenaturallimitsonoilproductionthat
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4000
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Fig.9.Worldoilconsumption,1950–2004.(Worldwatch,VitalSigns2005,31.)
willforceoneoftwooutcomes:conservationinenergyuseandashiftto alternatefuels(thisistheleastdisruptivealternative),orhugeincreases inoilpricesandoneenergycrisisafteranother. When most people think about an energy crisis today, they think aboutoil.Forgoodreasons.Oilsupplies40percentofallenergyused worldwide(naturalgasonly25percent),itisthefuelforover90percent oftransportation,anditisthelargestcommodityinworldcommerce. Petroleumisalsoavitalsourceofhomeheating,andabaseproductfor thousands of manufactured items, particularly organic chemicals.To a largeextent,theeconomicgrowthofthetwentiethcenturyrestedonthe availabilityofcheapoil,whiletheautomobilewasthemosttransforming innovation.Formostpeople,itisalmostimpossibletoimagineaworld withoutaccesstoaffordableoildistillates.Itwillnotbeeasytocurtail consumption,whichisnowrisingatanaveragerateofabout2percent ayear.Thissurgedtoafrightening3.4percentin2004,apossibleomen ofthefuture.HalfoftheincreasewasinChinaandtheUnitedStates. Worldconsumptionisnowabove82millionbarrelsaday,withalmost onefourthofthisintheUnitedStates(seefigure9). Howmuchoilhavehumansalreadyconsumed,andhowmuchoil isstillavailableforhumanuse?Answersvaryonthecriticalissueofremaining reserves, but not on prior use. In 2004, most experts agreed thathumanshadsofarconsumedaround1trillionbarrelsofoil(usually
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statedas1,000billionbarrels).From1995to2000,theU.S.GeologicalSurveycarriedoutthemostextensivesurveyofoilandgasreserves everconducted.Manyexpertscontesteditsfindings,butitssurveyhas informedmanyUnitedNationsagencies,andofteniscitedasauthoritative,asitisbytheInternationalEnergyAgency.Itisamongthemostoptimisticofforecasts,andpoliticallyhashadtheeffectofloweringconcerns aboutearlyshortagesofoilreserves(whatAmericans,andtheAmerican government, want to hear).The USGS estimates that the total original amount of oil on earth that was recoverable by conventional methods (thisdoesnotincludeanevenlargeramountofoilthatisunrecoverable byexistingtechnologies,oroilwhoserecoverywouldbeprohibitively expensive)was3trillionbarrels,andalongwiththisover300billion barrelsofliquifiedgasthatisaproductofoilextraction.Humanshave alreadyusedlessthanone-thirdofthistotal,leavingover2trillionmore tobeexploited.Thisisalmostdoubletheamountofprovenreservesas of2000,or1.1trillionbarrels(enoughforthirty-fiveyearsatthelevel ofusein2000),foritincludesestimatesofundiscoveredreservesandof theexpectedgrowthintheamountofrecoverableoilinexistingreserves. Itbasedthisonextrapolationsfrompastexperience,whichhasrevealed agrowthinreservesthatmorethanmatchedactualproduction(through exploration,theamountofknownreservesgrewasrapidlyasdiduse), andonnewtechnologiesthathaveincreasedtherecoveryrateinexisting wells.Bytheseadditions,ithopestoavoidwhathasbeentrueforalmost allpastpredictionsofoilresources—estimatesthatsoonprovedmuch toolow. Onthebasisofitsestimates,theUSGSpredictedthatworldoilproductionwouldnotpeakuntilafter2020(theInternationalEnergyAgency agrees, but foresees a critical growth in unconventional production beforethen)andthatanymajorsupplyproblemwouldnotdevelopuntil after2036(andfornaturalgasnotuntilafter2050).Thismeansthathumanshavetimetofindsubstitutesforoilandgas.Butnotethateventhis mostoptimisticscenariostillmeansthattheeraofplentifulandcheapoil andgaswillendlongbeforethedeathsofmanypeoplealivetoday.3 TheleadingcriticoftheUSGSreportisColinJ.CampbellofBritain,a well-knownandrespectedexpertonoilsupplies.Hisviewisamongthe most pessimistic. He believes that we have already used approximately halfoftherecoverableoilonearth,andthatatbestwewillbeableto recoveronlyanother1trillionbarrels.Hebelievesthatmostestimatesof
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provenreservesareinflated(notsofortheUnitedStates),particularly amongOPECnations,andforpoliticalreasons,sinceannualproduction quotasarebasedonpercentagesof“proven”reserves.Hebelievesthatin thefirstdecadeofthenewcenturywehavereachedpeakproduction,and thatsoontheannualworldproductionofoilwillbeginadeclineofover 2percentayear.Thiswillcreatethesametypeofoilcrisisassufferedin the1970s(onebasedoncartelcontroloverproduction),withsharply increased prices for oil worldwide, or the soaring oil prices of 2004– 2006(basedonpoliticalinstabilityintheNearEast,refiningbottlenecks, anearspeculativemaniainoilmarkets,andthetemporarydisruptionsof hurricanesKatrinaandRita).4Thespeculativeincreasedidreflectrealistic concernsovertheshrinkingofexcessproductivecapacitytosomething closetozero.Anymajordisruptionofproductionanywhereintheworld todaywillleadtoscarcityandhighenoughpricestocurtailoiluse(this might,inonesense,beadesirableoutcome). Thepoliticsofoiliscriticaltofuturescenarios.Oilproductioninthe UnitedStatespeakedin1970andhasdeclinedeversince.Ithasalready peakedinBritain,Canada,andVenezuela,andwillsoonpeakforNorway. Itisnowdeclininginthirty-threeoftheforty-eightlargestoil-producing countries.Theannualrateofnewdiscoveriesisnowonlyone-fourththe annualuseofoil.Upto60percentofprovenreservesareinfiveMiddle EasternIslamiccountries,withaboutone-fourthinSaudiArabia(nextin orderareIraq,Kuwait,Iran,andtheUnitedArabEmirates).Already,the percentageofthetotalworldproductioninOPECcountriesisrisingonce again,andwillcontinuetodoso.Increasedlevelsofproductioninthese five countries may, indeed, postpone any decline in world production beyond2020(acooperativeSaudiArabiahasplayedthethermostatrole recently).Butin2006theyhadnomorethan1millionbarrelsadayof spareproductivecapacity.Intimeeventhesecountrieswillnotbeable tofillthegapbetweensupplyanddemand,andthemoretheypumpin thepresentthesoonertheirownproductionwillhavetobeginagradual declinebecauseofnaturallimits.Itisfoolishforthesecountriestopump oilatmaximumrates,forthislowersworldprices,depletestheirmost valuableresource,andthreatenstheirfuture.Andiftheydocometothe rescueofanoil-thirstyworldforthenexttwodecades,thiswouldonly meanthat,oncethedeclinesetsin,thedeclinecurvewouldbemuch sharperandpricesmuchhigher.Suchisthepresentdependenceonthe politicallyunstablePersianGulfregionthatanymajordisruptionofpro-
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ductiontherewouldleadtoanimmediateoilcrisis.Therestoftheworld doesnothavethereservesneededtoreplacethisoneregionalsource. Naturalgasandcoaldonotposethesamesupplyproblemsasoil.The USGSestimateoftheoriginalgassupplieswasslightlysmallerthanthat foroil(theequivalentof2.8trillionbarrelsofoil),butsofarhumans haveusedonly18percentofthis,leavingalargerreservethanforoil.The problemwithnaturalgassupplies,inthenearfuture,willinvolvenot naturalscarcitiesbutthecostofdevelopinggaswellsandtransporting thegastoconsumers.Thesecostsareveryhigh.Thismeansregionalscarcitiesthatwillendureforyears.Bymostestimates,coalsupplieswilllast forovertwohundredyearsatexistinglevelsofuse.Coalreservesarebased onthetypeofthickveinspresentlymined,notonthealmostinestimable amountofcoalinthinorimpureveins.Inadditiontocoal,theoceanfloor hassequesteredanenormousvolumeofhydrocarbonsintheformoffrozen methane.Thus, so far, humans have scarcely touched the total amount of energyresources.Butmosthydrocarbonsarenotpresentlyaccessible,ornot economicaltoexploit(asistrueofshaleandofthemethaneontheocean floor).Oneengineerhasestimatedthatthetotalreservesofhydrocarbons amounttothirtythousandtimesthepresentannualrateofconsumption. Suchestimatesarebasedontheamountofpastphotosynthesisneeded toproducethepresentamountofatmosphericoxygen.IftheworldconsumedfossilfuelsattheAmericanrate,thiswouldlastsixthousandyears.5 Whatisclearisthatonlyasmallpercentageofthistotalreservewould everbeusablebyhumans.Andwhen,andif,unconventionalexploitation becomescompetitive,asitisnowforCanadiantarsands,theenvironmentalcostscouldbeenormous. Thepresenttrend,worldwide,istowardless-carbon-intensivefossil fuels.Thismeansasteadyincreaseintheuseofnaturalgas,largelymethane,withitsfourhydrogenatomstooneofcarbon.Petroleumhastwo ofhydrogentooneofcarbon,coalonetoone,andmostwoodtenatoms ofcarbontooneofhydrogen.Woodcreatesthemostash,themostaerosol-ladensmoke,andbyfarthemostcarbondioxide.Itscontinuedheavy useinunderdevelopedcountriesinpartnullifiesthepollutionbenefits ofverylowenergyuse.Naturalgas,unlikemostcoal,hasfewimpurities, burnscleanly,andprimarilyemitswatervapor.Yet,itaddscarbondioxidetotheatmosphere,andifoneisconcernedaboutgreenhousegases, even its continued use poses dangers. From this perspective, nuclear andhydropowerarepreferable.Already,themostaccessiblefossilfuels
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havebeenexploited.Thismeansthatinthefutureconsumerswillhave todevotealargershareofincometoenergyunlessmoreefficienttechnologies accompany the shift to deeper, more scattered, or less pure reservesofcoal,oil,andgas.Sofar,inventionhasstayedaheadofthe game,withfuelpricesstableorevenloweroverthelasthalfcentury.But, intime,highercostsforfossilfuelsareinevitable,andthiswillencourageamorerapidshifttoalternativefuels,probablysaferformsofnuclear energy.However,theshiftwillhavetobegradual,orelsethehumancosts willbeveryhigh.Whatevertheultimatereserveoffossilfuels,thedraw downofthisnonsustainableresourcewillaccelerateinatleastthenear future. Itisallbutcertainthatfossilfuelswillremainthedominantsource ofenergyforatleastthenextthirtyyears.Butifonehasaferventbelief in invention and new technologies, then certain predictions are in order.Naturalgaswilllargelydisplacethepresentuseofcoalinelectrical generationexceptinChinaandpossiblytheUnitedStates,andtheuse ofwood,coal,andoilinhomeheatingexceptinthemostimpoverished countries.Theconstructionofnuclearfissionplantswillgraduallyresume andaccountforalmost50percentoftotalelectricalgenerationworldwideby2050.Hydropowerwillexpandlargelyindevelopingcountries likeChina,whereoppositiontohighdamsismutedandmoreriversare asyetuntamed.Exceptforairtravelandmostshipping,transportation (trains,automobiles,trucks)willturnmoreandmoretobiomass(ethanol),electricity(atfirstinhybridvehicles,withsmallgasolineengines matchedwithbattery-poweredelectricmotors),purehydrogen(natural gaswillbetheprimarysource),ornaturalgas.Suchshiftswillpostpone theexhaustionofaccessiblepetroleumreserves,allowtimeforafurther conversionawayfromanyfossilfuels,andleavelargeunusedreservesof coalandshale.Butnaturalgassuppliesmaybetightby2050,whichwill stimulatemoreresearchanddevelopmentonnuclearfusionor,iffusion powerisalreadyareality,amorerapidconversiontoit. Accompanyingthegradualshifttononfossilfuelswillbeacontinuingefforttoburnfuelsmoreefficiently.ItispresentlyimpossibletoharvestalltheBTUspresentinanyfossilfuel.Theconversionofmostofthis toelectricityinvolvesfurtherlossesofenergy.Insomecases,suchasgasolineinautomobileengines,wemayalreadybeclosetothemaximum possibleefficiency.Thisisalsotrueinsomefactories,whereeconomic pressureshavestimulatedenergysavings.Someexperimentaldesignsfor
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theuseofcoalandoilinelectricalgenerationcanimproveefficiencyby 50percent.Atthepointoffinaluse,betterinsulatedhomes,plusmore energy-efficient light bulbs, furnaces, air conditioners, and appliances, canexpandtheusefulnessoffuelsbyatleast30percentoverpresentpatterns.Thegainsinefficiencyinalltheseareashavebeencriticalinthelast thirtyyears,butineachcasetheincreaseinconsumption(largerhomes, airconditioning,newappliances,moreandlargerprivateautomobiles, more mobility, the new electronic revolution) in developed countries since1990haskeptthetotaluseofenergygrowing,whilepopulation increasesand,inEastAsia,rapidindustrializationhavehadthesameeffectindevelopingcountries.Overthelongrun,theenergygamewillbe almostimpossibletowinwithoutaslowingofpopulationgrowthand changesinpatternsofconsumption.Itisindeedtruethat,atpresent,year byyear,theuseofenergypercapita,foreachunitofGNI,keepsgoing downinalldevelopedcountries.ThetroubleisthattheunitsofGNIkeep growingevenfaster.
ENERGYUSEINTHEUNITEDSTATES TheUnitedStatesconsumesmoreenergythananyothercountry,both intotalandpercapita.CanadaandtheUnitedStatesconsumeone-fourth ofalloil,andanevenhigherpercentageofnaturalgas.OnlyChinamay soon catch up with the United States in total energy use, but it does notusenearlyasmuchonapercapitabasis.Ourenergyuseisheavily weightedtowardfossilfuels.Thisleadstomuchmoreairpollutionthan eitherhydroornuclearpower,andalsoinvolvesmoreemissionsofcarbondioxide,themajorgreenhousegas.BytheestimatesoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,theUnitedStatesdischargedabout 1,463billionmetrictonsofcarbonorcarbonequivalentsintotheatmospherein1994,withCO2makingup85percentofthis.Today,itsrisein annualemissionsisover1percent.Thelargestsourcesoftheseemissions, byEPAestimates,areelectricalgeneration(35percent),transportation (31 percent, with over half of this from private automobiles or light trucks), manufacturing (21 percent), residential (7 percent, primarily forheating),andcommercial(5percent,largelyinbuildings).TheUnitedStatesgains52percentofitselectricityfromcoal-firedsteamplants, andtheseaccountfor85percentoftheCO2emittedbysuchutilities.It willbealmostimpossibletoreversethepresentannualriseinfossilfuel
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use.OnetoolwouldbetopersuadeAmericanstoconsumelesselectricity,byvariousconservationmeasures.However,nogovernmenteffortis likelytopersuadeaffluentAmericanstolowerthesizeoftheirhousesor toclustertheminmorecompacturbanenclaves. TheUnitedStatesdoesnotleadtheworldinenergyuse,orinCO2 emissions,becauseithasneglectedenvironmentalissuesorfailedtopass effectiveenvironmentallegislation.Infact,itleadstheworldinenergy efficiency,perunitconsumed.Itsrolealmostentirelyrestsonitshigh levelofoverallconsumption,itsdependenceonfossilfuels,anditshousingandtransportationpreferences.Briefly,theUnitedStates,toagreater extentthanmostwesternEuropeancountries(particularlyFrance,with itsnearly80percentrelianceonnuclearpower),reliesprimarilyoncoal for electrical generation (52 percent), which accounts for 40 percent ofallfuelburnedinAmerica.Themixoffuelsisimportant,andworks againstanyearlyreductionsinthisarea(politicalandregionalissuesalso complicatecoaluse,forcoalstatecongresspeoplewillfighthardtoprotectitsmarketandlocaljobs). The method of generation is no more important than patterns of electricalconsumption.Thisisafunctionoflivingstandards,suchasthe numberofappliancesinhomes,andofthedetached,increasinglylarge housespreferredbyAmericans.Evenasfamilysizehasdecreased(from 3.4in1960to2.8in1990),theaveragesizeofnewhomeshasmore thandoubledsince1950(fromlessthanonethousandtoovertwentyfourhundredsquarefeetin2005),andisstillgrowingveryrapidly.The electronicrevolutionhascontributedtohomeenergyuse.Multipletelevisionsetsarenowjoinedbycomputers(thesealonehaveincreasedthe homeuseofelectricitybyupto10percent).Homeheatingplacesalarge demandonelectricity,heatingoil,andnaturalgas,whileairconditioningdrainssummerelectricityinthehotandhumidSunBelt.Bygreater efficiencyintheuseofcoal,byitsnowstallednuclearpowerprogram, and by a gradual conversion to fossil fuels that emit less carbon (particularlynaturalgas),theUnitedStateshashalveditsemissionofcarbon foreachunitofenergyinthelastfiftyyears.Butpopulationgrowthand muchhigherlevelsofconsumptionhaveprecludedanyreductionintotal emissions. ThelocationanddispersedplacingofAmericanhouseshelpexplain a second uniqueAmerican consumer pattern—the exceptionally large useofenergyintransportation,mostinprivateautomobilesandsmall
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trucks. Recent energy use has risen most rapidly in the transportation sector,worldwide.Americanstraveltwiceasmanymilesinautomobiles as do western Europeans, use over double the amount of gasoline to propel them, use automobiles for over 85 percent of their travel (80 percentandgrowinginEurope),andhavelessandpoorerformsofpublictransportation.Theincreasedpercentageofwomenworkinghasincreasedcommutingvolume.Lowerincomeworkersoftenliveinfar-out suburbstoreducehousingcosts.TheUnitedStatesin2005hadaround 220millionmotorvehicles,thehighestintheworld,ormorethanone vehicleforeachlicenseddriver.Two-carfamiliesaregivingwaytothree orfour.Shoppingcenters,longshoppinghours,parentaltransportation ofchildrentoschools,andthehighownershipofautomobilesbyteens allhelpaccountforaresumedincreaseingasolineconsumptionbyautomobilesinthe1990s. Oilconsumptionforautomobilesisnowrisingeachyear.Thetrend towardnewlevelsofefficiencyinautomobileengines,whichwasmandatedbyenergyandenvironmentallegislationinthe1970s,slowedby thelate1990s,whentheaveragemilespergallonofvehiclesbegantogo downonceagain(40percentoftheincreaseincarbonemissionssince 1990havebeeninthetransportationsector,withgasolineconsumption bymotorvehiclesup2.1percentin2001despiteasloweconomy).This is not due to less efficient engines, but to a consumer preference for largerones,invansandsportsutilityvehicles.In2003theaverageweight of automobiles and small trucks in the United States exceeded 4,000 poundsforthefirsttimesince1976(theaveragewas3,202in1981), androsetoaround4,060in2004.Theaveragemilespergallonoffuel hasdroppedfrom22.1inthelate1980sto20.7in2003.Infact,never inAmericanhistorydidculturalandeconomictrendssofavortheprivate useofenergyasinthe1990s—highemployment,risingincomes,low petroleumprices,longdistances,largehouses,multipleappliances,and gas-guzzlingautomobilesorvans(becauseofnewefficiencies,industrial energyuseapartfromutilitiesstabilizedordeclined).SmugEuropeans should note that their consumptive trends, including more detached housing and more automobiles, is rapidly following theAmerican example. In some consumptive areas, such as second homes, Sweden is alreadyaheadoftheUnitedStates. Onthesupplyside,considerablereductionsinenergyusearepossible throughmoreefficientelectricalgeneration.Veryrecentandpromising
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new techniques of generation could make this possible, but the costs willallowreplacementonlyasolderplantswearout.Themostdramatic reductionsrequireachangeinfuel(forexample,tonaturalgasinstead ofcoal,ortonuclearplants).Eachchangeentailscosts.Fewutilitiescan affordtoupgradeolderbutstillfunctionalgenerators,andin2002PresidentGeorgeW.Bush,byexecutiveorder,allowedutilitiestomakesignificantchangesinexistingfacilitieswithouthavingtoadoptmandatednew emission targets (see chapter 5).Alternative energy sources have long tantalizedAmericans,andinthenearfutureitseemsthatwindpowerhas somepotentialincertainareasofthecountry.Solarpowerisstilluncompetitive,whileonlyamiraculousnewbatterytechnologycanmakeperiodicgeneration(wind,sun)widelypractical.Theuseofnaturalgaswill increasewhereitiscompetitivewithcoal(asinpartsoftheSouthwest), butin2004–2005itssupplywassoshortastodoubleitscost.Nuclear energy,thegreathopeofthe1960s,mayrevive,butatpresentnonew plantsareunderwayintheUnitedStatesbecauseofsafetyconcerns.Fusionenergy,ifeverdeveloped,isstilldecadesaway.Butanyoftheseshifts willcostsomeone.Governmentincentives(suchastaxbreaks)willcost thepublic.Tougherregulationwillleadtohigherrates. IntheUnitedStates,thesecondmosteffectivereductionofenergy usewouldbeinthetransportationsector.Insomeareas—airplanes,railroads,barges—theroomforshort-termsavingsisminimal.Notsofor automobilesandtrucks.Thegasolineshortagesandsoaringpricesofthe 1970srevealedwhatAmericanscoulddotosaveonenergy.Highgasolineprices,mandatedmileagestandards,anationalspeedlimit,more efficientengines,andaturntosmallerautomobilesallhelpedreverse thegrowthinbothunitandtotalgasolineconsumption,whichonlyin the1990sbegantogrowonceagain.Theseefficiencieshelpedbalance offacontinuedgrowthinmilestraveledandautomobilesowned.These savings ended in the 1990s, when gasoline prices fell below that of bottledwater.Inprinciple,afewpoliticalchoicescouldonceagaincut gasolineusesharply—arestoredandenforced55milesperhourspeed limit,aonedollaragallongasolinetaxorataxoncarbonemissions, sharplyprogressivetaxesonautomobilesortrucksastheirmilesper gallonriseabovetheaverageforallvehicles,restrictionsonparkingin innercities,majorsubsidiesforpublictransportation,andmoreincentives for the development of alternative fuels (ethanol, natural gas, biodiesel, hydrogen).
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Yet, the one area in which early change is most likely is in automobiles.Thestandardgasolineengineinautomobilesmaybecloserto extinctionthanpeopleanticipate.Bothfuelcostsandairpollutionhave driventhesearchfornewalternatives.Fuelcellsthatburnhydrogenisan alternativepushedbytheBushAdministration,butitwilltakeyearsto perfectaproductionmodel,anditswidespreadusewouldrequireanew andveryexpensiveinfrastructure.All-electriccarshavebeenaroundfor overahundredyears,butexistingbatterytechnologylimitsthemtoshort distances.Enginesthatburnnaturalgasarealreadyusedonbuses,while diesel engines, widely used in Europe but not so much in the United States,aremoreefficientthangasolineengines.Butthemostpromising alternatives,forthenearfuture,areflexenginesthatburnE85,andthe typeofhybridvehiclethatHondaandToyotafirstdevelopedinJapanand soonmarketedintheUnitedStates.By2006,mostautomobilemanufactureshadhybridmodelsforsaleorunderdevelopment. Itisnowpossible,withexistingtechnologiesandnomajorchanges intheexistinginfrastructure,tobuildanautomobilethatconsumesless than10percentofthegasolineusedbyaconventionalgasolineengine. Whatisrequiredisahybridcarwithaflexengine,onethatcanuseE85. Thesewillprobablybeonthemarketby2007.IftheUnitedStates,in thenexttenyears,couldconvertallnewautomobilesandsmalltrucks tosuchflexhybrids,andrequireethanolasthefuel,itwouldnolonger bedependentonanyforeignoilandmightevenbeabletomeetitsnow repudiatedquotaforgreenhousegasesundertheKyotoProtocol.Magic! Notquite.Theproblemistheneededsupplyofethanol.Wecouldnot growafourthofthecornneededtoproduceit,andBrazilwouldnot beabletoexportenoughevenifweloweredthetariffbarriers.Theonly possiblesourceofsomuchethanolwouldhavetobethenowexperimentalandexpensivecellulosicprocess,whichmayormaynotbecome costeffective. AnotherinnovationcoulddramaticallyreducetheuseofeithergasolineorE85.By2010,productionmodelsof“plug-in”hybridsshouldbe onthemarket.Toyotaisnowatworkonaplug-inversionofitsPrius. Severalindividualinventorshavealreadyaddedlargercapacitybatteries andahomechargingcapacitytomodifiedhybridvehicles.Thegoalisa plug-inbatterypackthatcanpropelacar,intheelectricmodeonly,for uptotwentyorthirtymilesononecharge.Thelikelysolutionwillbe lithiumbatteries,whicharelighterthanthepresentlead-acidbatteries.
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Suchahybridcould,inshort-distanceandcitydriving,allbuteliminate anyneedtousethegasolineengine,savingitforhigherspeedhighway trips.Suchahybridcould,onaverage,attainuptoonehundredmilesper gallonoffuel.BurnonlyE85andthegasolineusewouldbeminuscule. Theproblemisthecostofthenewtypeofbatteries,andthushowsoon productionmodelscancompeteinthemarketplace.Thewaveofthefuture,ifpoliticaleventsshouldleadtoamajoroilcrisis,maywellbeflex engine,plug-inhybridsthatrequirelessthanonegallonofgasoline,plus sixgallonsofethanol,foreveryfivehundredmilestraveled. Majorchangesintypesofenergyuseorinconsumptivehabitswill affectmostAmericans,someadversely.Theequityissuescouldbemajor. If we replace the standard gasoline engine in automobiles and trucks, the drastic reduction in the demand for oil will not only threaten the profitsofmajoroilcompanies,butthejobsofthousandsofworkers,not tomentiontheeffectonoil-producingcountries.Ifwetaxgasolineto spurareductioninprivateconsumption,thepeoplemostaffectedwill be low-wage workers, who have been forced to live in mobile homes twentymilesfromurbanorsuburbanjobs.Ifwetaxheatingoil,itwill bethepoorwhosuffermost.IfweshouldusetaxestocurtailtheproductionoflargeautomobilesorSUVs,themiddleclasswouldrevolt.Andso itgoesforalleffortstolimitenergyconsumption,ortoshifttononfossil formsofenergy,forthepresentlevelandtypesofenergyusereflectthe cheapestalternatives,calculatedonarelativelyshorttimescale. Asonefacesthealwaysuncertainfuture,oneconfrontsstarklydifferent forecasts. On one side are the technological optimists, who use past experience to bolster their belief that new techniques will enable humanstostayaheadofwhatseemstobeloomingscarcities.Afterall, fusioncouldtakecareofmuchoftheenergyproblem.Ontheotherare theenvironmentalalarmists,whocitepresenttrendstodemonstratethe nearcertaintyofearlycrisesinvolvingbothenergyandwater.Atthecrux ofthedebateisthewidedivergencebetweendevelopedcountriesand thosewhoarepoororonlyslowlyovercominglowincomes.If,inthe nextfiftyyears,thepresentbalanceofwealthandincomecontinuesas itistoday,ifthepresentrateofgrowthinIndiaandChinacomestoa halt,thenafewtechnologicalinnovationsmaypreventanysevereworld crisisinvolvingeitherwaterorenergy.Itmaybepossible,withlimited aidfromthewealthy,toinsurethecontinuationofatleastpresentliving standardsfortheadditional3billionpeoplewhowillalmostalllivein
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thelow-incomeareasoftheworld.Itmaybepossibletocontinuethe present pace of growth in incomes among the slowly decreasing percentageofpeople(downfrom20percentto15percent)whowillbe privilegedtoliveindeveloped,high-energysocieties.Oneaspectofthis growth will be continued gains in dealing with several environmental problems, although I doubt that such managed growth can take place withoutareductioninbiodiversity. ButIhaveprofounddoubtsthatanynewtechnologieswillsolvethe largerproblem,onethatisultimatelymoralandpoliticalaswellaseconomic.Isimplycannotconceiveofanyscenariosthatentailacontinued growth of world population and a continued growth in levels of consumptioninwealthycountrieswhileprovidingtheneededenergy,and insomecasesthenecessarywater,toclosethegapinincomesbetween thefewdevelopedandthemanyunderdevelopedcountries—orthateven comeclosetoclosingthisgap.Andnotethatenergyandwaterarenot theonlyrequiredresourcesforsuchanarrowedgap,andthussomething closer to worldwide equality. Ultimately, any hope of having the vital resourcesneededforallthepeopleonearthrestsontwoverydifficult shifts—awayfromhighfertilityratesinpoorcountries,andawayfrom certaintypesandquantitiesofconsumptioninwealthycountries.
PARTTHREE
THE HUM AN THRE AT Balancingthethreatofscarcitiesinvitalresourcesisthedestructiveimpactofhumansontheirownlivingspace.Therapidexpansionofpopulationinmuchoftheworld,newmodesofproduction,andexploding consumptioninindustrializedcountrieshaveallledtoanunprecedented pollution of air, soil, and water. Pollution has joined with the loss of habitattocreateamajorextinctioncrisis,andthusalossofbiodiversity. Idevotechapter5totheoverallproblemofpollution,andtoAmerican responses to such pollution. In chapter 6, I explore the difficulties of preservingthepresentlevelofbiodiversity.
5
POLLUTION ,WASTE , AND THE OZONE LAYE R
F
ormostpeople,referencestoanenvironmentalcrisissuggestsimages ofpollutedsoil,air,orwater,orpollutiononsurfacesorinobjects ofconsumption.Mostdangerousingredientsinourenvironmenthave natural as well as human sources (a few, such as radon or pollen, are completelynatural),butitisthepartthatisofhumanoriginthatwegenerallyrefertoaspollutants.Inmostindustrialcountries,thelargestbody ofenvironmentalregulationsrelatetopollutionandthetypesofhuman productionandwastedisposalthatcauseit.Thecostofavoiding,containing,orremovingpollutantshasabsorbedaneverlargercomponent of governmental budgets.The subject is enormously complex. It joins with a second problem—the availability of life-supporting resources, withsoil,air,water,andenergythemostimportant.Formanypeople, thesearealreadyscarce,whichsuggestsalltheissuestiedtoconservation,efficientuse,andrecycling.Sincepollutedresourcesmaynotbesafe forhumanuse,themitigationofpollutionanditseffectsmayincrease theresourcesavailableforhumansurvival.
POLLUTION:DEFINITIONANDHISTORICALBACKGROUND Certainingredientsintheenvironmentareharmfultohumans,orindirectlyposeathreattohumansbecausetheyendangeranimalsorplants ordegradeordefacevaluedartifacts(suchasbuildingsorartobjects). But what is harmful in one setting, or at one time, may not be at another.Oxygen,forexample,isnecessaryforanimallife,yetfreeoxygen 101
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istoxicinmanycontexts,includingthehumanbody(intheformoffree radicals). Ozone, a special atomic form of oxygen, is a major air pollutant.Yetozoneinthestratospherescreensoutmostofthedangerous ultravioletlightthatcancausesomuchdamagetolifeattheearth’ssurface.Carbondioxideisnecessaryforphotosynthesis,andthusforplant growth.Nexttowatervapor,itisthemostplentifulgreenhousegas, andthushelpswarmourplanet.Butintoolargequantitiesintheatmosphere,itmayhelpinducedangerouswarmingorsoreduceoxygenas tothreatenanimallife.Insomecases,certainchemicalsarepoisonous inlargequantities(fluorine)butlife-enhancinginsmallamounts(to prevent cavities in teeth).And what is toxic to humans is often food forbacteria.Throughoutmostofhumanhistory,thepollutantscreated byhumanproductionandconsumptionwereratherquicklyandsafely absorbedbackintotheenvironment,largelythroughbacterialactionin soilorwater. Simplydefined,apollutantisanymaterialsubstancethatposesany threat,directorindirect,tohumanwelfare,andwhichresultsfromthe direct or indirect effect of human action.This is, admittedly, a definition with a human bias. It ignores the perspective of other species.A pollutant,sodefined,isdangerous,andthusapollutant,notnecessarily becauseofanyinherentqualities,butbecauseitisatthewrongplace,at thewrongtime,orinthewrongquantities.Here,“wrong”hasaevaluativecontent.Noobjectisapollutantsimplybecauseitexists.Everything hasaplaceinourworld.Contextisallimportant.Thecarbonmonoxide emittedinavolcanoisnotdifferent,chemically,fromthatemittedbyan automobiletailpipe.Thus,itisimpossibletoescapeahumanperspective indeterminingwhatisdangerousandwhatisapollutant,justasthehumanperspectiveturnssomefloweringplantsinto“weeds.”Indeed,we deemmanychemicalsaspollutantsbecauseoftheirimpactonnonhumanspecies,butineachcasebecausetheseplantsoranimalshavesome perceivedvalueforhumans,evenifthevalueisoneofbeautyappreciated.Anescapedherbicidethatkillsnotjusttheweedsinanearbycorn fieldbutalsomytomatoplantsisapollutant.Itisoutofplace.Nofarmer wouldclassifyaninsecticidethatkillsunwantedbugsasapollutant,yet thesameinsecticidethatkillshiscucumberbeetlesmayblowintomy yardandkillprizedhoneybees.Perspectivethusmakesallthedifference. Pollutantsmaybegases,andthuswithoutfixedshapeorvolume,orfluids,withoutfixedshape,orsolids.
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Even early Homo sapiens (language using, self-conscious humanoids) had a unique role in their environment.They could exert much morecontrolovertheirsurroundingsthanotheranimals.Theycouldcoordinatetheiractivities,accumulateknowledgeabouthowtocopewith problems,inventevermoreusefultoolstoextendtheirpoweroverthe physicalworld.Evenatthehuntingandgatheringstage,theywerereshapingtheirworld.Theycontrolledfire,forcookingfood,forkeeping warm,andattimesforburningwoodsorgrassland(tocorralgameor justforthefunofit).Fireisdangerous,ofteninwaystheydidnotrecognize.Inpoorlyventilatedcaves,orinlaterhuts,itcouldproducedeadly levelsofcarbonmonoxide.Inallcases,itcreatedsmokeandsootand,to alimitedextent,pollutednearbyair.Buthuntingandgatheringmeant small and dispersed human populations, and thus less human impact thanbecamepossiblewithcultivationandherding,andwiththismuch largerandmoreconcentratedpopulations. Environmentalists,withsomejustice,oftenattributethefirstmajor threattotheenvironmenttothedevelopmentofagriculture.Indeed,the massivereshapingoftheearth’slandareasbeganwithdomesticationand cultivation.Withoutagriculture,thehumanpopulationwould,ofnecessity, have remained very small, and the human environmental impact lowincomparisontothatoflater,settledcommunities.Inmostareas, farmingrequiredtheclearingofforests.Withtheconversionoflarge tractsofland,thisledtolessphotosynthesis,aloweredabsorptionof CO2, a slightly diminished amount of humidity and rainfall, higher temperatures, and more soil erosion, creating dust and major stream siltation.The open grazing of forests and savannahs, by cows, sheep, andaboveallhogs,furtherdegradedlandandvegetation.Butearlyagriculturewasnotefficientbymodernstandards.Eachfamilyhadonly asmallsurplusforsaleorexchange,afterfeedingthemselvesandtheir livestock.Thedensityofpopulationremainedsmall,althoughfarmers could,andusuallydid,clustertheirnowpermanenthomesinvillages. Some of these, with favorable locations, would grow into commercial cities.Thus,citieswereoneproductofcultivationandasettledformof life.Butuntilfarmingbecameefficient,largecitieswerefew,sincemost humanenergystillhadtobedevotedtoagriculture,supportivearts,and homemaking. City life led to new environmental problems, ones scarcely recognizedonscatteredfarmsorinsmallruralvillages—airandwaterpollu-
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tionandtheaccumulationofsolidwaste.Thesmokefromtheinefficient burning of wood for cooking and heat could accumulate over cities, particularly in winter and during air inversions, leading to smog and dangerouslevelsofozone,carbonmonoxide,andvariousoxidesofnitrogenandsulfur.Theairinsidehouseswasoftenevenmorepolluted. Untreatedhumanexcretapollutedstreamsandspreadinfectiousdiseases. Andoften,carelesslydisposedsolidwastesaccumulatedindumps,under houses,orinsinkholes.Intime,citiesbecamemoundsoflayereddebris, with each layer reflecting the clutter of past civilizations. For archaeologists,thesemoundsproviderichinformationaboutthehumanpast. Onemarkofcivilizationwastheefforttodealwiththeseproblems.In GreeceandRome,forexample,wefindaqueductstoimportrelatively pure water into cities, sewers to remove untreated waste to rivers or oceans,andplanneddumpsforsolidwaste.Ifthedischargeswerenot toolarge,bacterialactioncouldgetridofmostpathogensinsoilorin flowingstreams,whileheat-inducedchemicalreactionsorfallingrain couldcleansetheair.Theoceansweresolarge,incomparisontohuman- created pollutants, as to serve as a relatively safe universal dump.The pollutionproblembecameacuteonlywithmuchlargerhumanpopulations,newformsofproduction,dramaticallyhigherlevelsofconsumption,andchemicallybasedtechnologies. One pattern has remained constant from the earliest humans.The greatestsourceofairpollutionhasbeentheburningofbiomassorfossilfuels.Whathaschangedistheamountburned,andthenumberof peopledoingtheburning.InNorthAmericaandEurope,overthelast two hundred years, the growth of population and a presently stable population have accompanied a gradually accelerating growth in per capitaconsumption.Withthis,percapitauseofenergyandchemicals hassoared.Intheunderdevelopedworld,sinceWorldWarII,themost dramaticgrowthhasbeeninpopulation,withamodestgrowthinper capitaconsumption.Populationgrowthalonehasincreasedenergyuse, particularlyofwoodandcoal.Inthetwomostpopulouslow-income countries, India and China, the rapid growth of manufacturing and some highly efficient and mechanized agriculture have pushed their useoffossilfuelsclosertothelevelofdevelopedcountries.Ifpresent trends continue, China will soon consume more fossil fuels than the UnitedStates(butnotnearlyasmuchpercapita).Italreadyconsumes morecoal.
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INAIR,WATER,ANDSOIL Few pollutants are restricted to any one location, such as air or water. Forexample,aninsecticideisfirstofallapowderorinsolution,then turnedintovaporordropletsforsprayingonvegetation.Sincesomeof thesprayremainsonthesurfaceofcrops,smallresiduesmaybeeatenby humansoranimals,whileotherparticlesmoveintothesoilandeventuallypollutestreamsandtheocean.Airpollutiontakesprecedenceonly inonesense—itcanbemoreuniversalthanpollutionofsoilorwater, forairencirclestheglobeandsomeformsofpollutionremainintheair long enough to gain a uniform density worldwide.This is true of the human-produced (and in many cases human-invented) chemicals that depletestratosphericozone(seebelow),andofmostgreenhousegases (seechapter8). Almostanyelementorcompoundcanbecomeairborne.Technically, dust and liquid droplets are not part of the air, but only temporarily suspendedinit.Evendangerousheavymetals,suchaslead,arsenic,and mercury, can exist as airborne particles. In fact, lead was long one of themostdangerousairpollutantsbecauseofthewidespreaduseoflead ingasoline.Smalllevelsofmercurynowpollutetheoceans,leadingto dangerousamountsinfishthatareattheendofafoodchain.Sometrace gasesinouratmospherearesoconcentratedastoposeadangertolife. Oxidesofsulphurandnitrogenarenotstable,formingnewcompounds ordissolvinginwater.Theseaerosols,suchassulfate(SO4),reflectlight andhelpcooltheearthandacidifyrainwater,whichcreatesacidrain.It isdifficulttorank,inorderofdamage,thevarioustracegasesortheir chemicalchildrenandgrandchildren.Buttoday,bymostevaluations,the bigthreearetroposphericozone,oxidesofsulphur,andoxidesofnitrogen.Exceptforozone,thesearenotamongthemostdangerousofgases, buttheirrankderivesfromthescopeoftheirinfluenceorthedifficulty of controlling them.The major source of sulfur compounds is electricalgenerationwithsulfur-containingcoal.Automobileemissionsarethe leadingsourceoftroposphericozone.Mostnitrogencompoundshavea largelynaturalorigin,buttheseareaugmentedbyhumanburningand by nitrogen fertilizers. Fortunately for humans, ozone and most sulfur compounds either have a nasty odor or irritate the skin, and thus are detectableevenatlowconcentrations. In most cases the reduced (without oxygen and usually hydrogen-
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based)compoundsofsulfurandnitrogenarelesstoxicthantheoxides, andtheproportioncreatedbyhumanactivityisless.Ammonia(NH3), averypungentgas,islargelyaproductofbiologicaldecayinsoilsand swamps,adecayincreasedbyexcessnitrogenfertilizers,butitisalsoa product of oil refining and some waste burning.As housewives know, ammoniaisavaluedcleansingagent,andisusedintheproductionof fertilizers,plastics,explosives,anddyes.Whenincontactwithwater,ammoniacanconverttoammonium(NH4),whichistheforminwhich most plants absorb their needed nitrogen.At very low concentrations, ammoniaisnottoxictohumans,butalwaysunpleasantbecauseofits odor.The most dangerous reduced form of sulfur is hydrogen sulfide (H2S), which is a very deadly gas in concentrations of 10 percent or more.Ithasanotorious“rottenegg”smell,andishighlyflammable.It canbeaproductoforganicdecay,particularlyinsewers.Itisalsoanaturalproductoftheleavesofplants,butrarelyinhighenoughquantities tobedangerous.Itcanbeadangerousreleasefromoilornaturalgas, andisabyproductofseveralformsofmanufacturing,particularlypaper, textiles,plastics,anddyes.Aroundsomepulpmills,itistheleadingcause ofodorpollution. An often overlooked type of pollution is that of pungent and nauseatingodorsorloudorunpleasantnoises.Totheextentthatotherwise dangerousgasesoraerosolscausediscomfortfromtheirsmell,odorsare acomponentofairpollution,andtodayarecontrolledbycleanairlegislation.Otherodorsarenoteasilycontrolledbylegislation,suchasthat ofmanurespreadonfieldsbyfarmers.Someunpleasantodorsareuseful, suchasthestinkingcomponentsplacedinnaturalgas.Loudnoiseshave becomeapartofmoderncivilization,andtoanextentareinescapable. Butmostlocalgovernmentshaveregulationstoreducethelevelofsound. Even intheabsenceofnoiseandsoundpollutionlaws,odorsandloud noisescanbecomeapublicnuisance,andfacecivilactionifnotpoliceaction.ButinthischapterIwillfocusupontheotherformsofairpollution. Aseveryoneknows,bothmethane(ornaturalgas,whichislargely made up of methane, or CH4) and carbon monoxide are odorless and colorless killers in confined areas. But methane, when contained, is a valuablefuel,farmoreefficientandlesspollutingthananyotherfossil fuel.Itisalsoagreenhousegas.Methaneisonlythemostabundantof oversixhundredotherhydrocarboncompoundsinthemodernatmosphere,mostderivingfromcombustion.Anylocalsupplyofnaturalgas
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willcontainseveralofthese,alongwiththedominantmethane.Carbon monoxide,themostabundantofallatmosphericpollutants,isnowmost oftenhuman-causedthroughtheincompleteburningofhydrocarbons. Fortunately,itisratherquicklyoxidizedintocarbondioxideintheopen airorconsumedbysoilmicrobes,meaningthat,awayfromtheimmediatevicinityofCOoutput,theratherconstantlevelintheatmosphereis notdangeroustohumans.Today,mostdeathsfromcarbonmonoxideare causedbyconfinedautomobileexhaustormisplacedormalfunctioning stoves, furnaces, or space heaters.A major source of nonfatal but unhealthylevelsofCOiscigarettesmoking. Except for heavy metals, most pollutants involve the very elements thatarenecessaryforlife.Thisismostclearinthecaseofvarioushydrocarbons,plusthemanycompoundsofsulphurandnitrogenthatare on almost any regulated list of toxic chemicals (at the point of emission, these are sulfur dioxide and two oxides of nitrogen, but in the atmospheretheyundergochemicalreactionsthatcreatedozensofother gasesoraerosols).Todayweliveinanageofchemicals,manysynthesized eachyear(notoriginallypartofnature).Someestimatethatoverseventy thousanddifferentchemicalcompoundsareinuseeveryyear.Ofthese, overathousandareprobablytoxic(thatis,posesomethreattohuman health,withcancerthegreatestconcern),andeachyearintheUnited StatestheEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyaddsnewchemicalstoitslist ofproven,probable,orpossibletoxicsubstances.Eachyearfarmersuse millionsoftonsofpesticides,mostnowmadeupofsynthesizedorganic compounds.Inthewrongplace,andinhighconcentrations,almostallof thesearetoxicforhumans,andthushavetobeusedverycarefully.1 Water is almost as important as air as a repository of toxic chemicals.Inthepast,waterposeditsgreatestdangertohumansthroughthe pathogenswithinit.Suchisstillthecaseinmanypoorcountries.Even acenturyagotheUnitedStateswascursedwithepidemicsoftyphoid and cholera because of pathogens in water. Developed countries have eliminatedmostsuchthreatsthroughrigorouscontrolsoverthequality ofdrinkingwater,althoughitisimpossibletoeliminateallpotentially dangeroustraceelementsinwater.Insomeareas,thenaturalwatersupplycontainsdangerouslevelsofarsenicorfluorine,andthesearedifficult toscreenout.Inhomes,antiquatedleadpipesstillpollutedrinkingwater. Insomeruralareas,wellshavebecomepollutedbytoxicchemicalsthat haveinvadedthegroundwaterorevendeeperaquifers.
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Indevelopedcountries,theproblemisnotprimarilywaterfordrinking,butwaterinstreamsandlakes.Untilveryrecently,humanseverywhereusedstreamsasadepositoryforallmannerofwastes,including solidwaste.Untreatedsewagejoinedstormdrainageandindustrialdischarges. Runoff from agriculture included nitrogen and phosphorous fromfertilizer,whichjoinedthephosphatesindetergentsusedinlaunderinganddishwashingtocauseasurfeitofnutrientsandsomuchvegetative growth as to strip water of the oxygen needed by fish and to hastenthegradualeutrophicationofpondsandlakes.Thesejoinedremnantsofpesticidesandherbicides,toxicmetalsfrommines,andheavy metals,suchasselenium,fromtheleachingwaterusedtoremovesalts fromirrigatedfields.Inlowconcentrations,andovertime,bacteriain watercandigestmostwasteproducts,butnotall,andnotinhugequantities.Thus,throughouttheworld,moststreamsandlakesarepolluted, insomecasestotheextentthattheynolongersupportanylifeatall.In others,dangerouschemicalssoaccumulateinfish,orinbirdsthateat fish,astothreatenlifeorastorenderfishunfitforhumanconsumption. Thesepollutedwatersthenflowintotheoceans,totheextentthateven thishugevolumeofwaterisnowthreatened,particularlyinrelatively isolatedgulfsorseas(suchastheMediterranean).Thisposesmorelongtermdamagethansuchdramaticeventsasamajoroilspill. In developed countries, the most dangerous forms of water pollution now face regulation.Water treatment and purification is possible but expensive for single-point sources of pollution, such as municipal orcorporatedischarges.Lesseffectivelyregulatedarenon-pointsources, such as the runoff from pesticides and fertilizers used by farmers, or siltationfromerodedland,orthelong-termpollutioncausedbylongabandoned mines, or the bacteria deposited by grazing cattle in open streams.Nogoodanswerisavailablefortheheatingofwatercausedby powerplants. Soilisdifferentfromairandwater.Humansdonotconsumeit,but only emissions from it or plants grown in it. Most soils are teeming withlife,fromearthwormsandnematodesdowntoallmannerofmicroscopicorganisms.Theseliveondecayingvegetationandhelprecycle vitalgasesbackintotheatmosphere.Mostairpollutantseventuallyfallto theoceansortoearth.Acidrainincreasestheacidityofsoil,andcanbe veryharmfultotreesorothervegetation.Heavymetalsandmanyorganic chemicalscanremaininthesoilfordecades.Someplasticsaresoinert
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thattheytakecenturiestobreakdown.Butaplasticbottleisnotnecessarilyapollutant,inthesensethatitposesathreattohumanlifeorto plantoranimallife.Mostplasticwastecontaminatesbutdoesnotpollute thesoil.Buteveninertcontaminantsarenotalwaysbenign,forstripsof plasticmayensnareabirdoramammal.Insecticidesoftenkillbeneficial bacteriaorwormsinthesoil,andsolongasthechemicalsremainactiveinsoil(usuallynotlong),thegroundistothatextentpolluted.The sameistrueforlingeringherbicides,iftheyinhibitthegrowthofdesired plants.Chemicalfertilizersinsoilscanfeedtherunoffofexcessivenutrientsintostreams.But,asawhole,mostsoilsarenotsignificantlypolluted exceptwheretheyhavebecomeadumpforhumanwasteproducts,and particularlyverytoxicwastes.Suchwastesincludetheexcretaofdomesticatedanimals. Inthepast,themajorproblemposedbypollutedsoilswasthespread ofdiseasepathogens.Thisremainstrueinunderdevelopedcountries.In developedcountries,itismoreoftentoxicchemicalsthatposeadirect threattohumans,whilegreenhousegasemissionsfromlandfillsarean indirectthreatbecauseofglobalwarming.Humanshavealwaysusedland asadumpforunwanteditems.Thisbeganwiththeirownexcreta.Such wastebecamedangerousonlywiththeincreaseinthenumberofinfectious diseases. But only a bit over a century ago did humans become awareofthesourcesofinfection,andonlythendidtheyhaveacompellingreasontofindsafewaysofdisposingofexcreta,eitherinsanitary pits or privies, septic tanks and drainage fields, or in sewage systems. Bacteriawillpurifyhumanwastes,aswellasthatofotheranimals,just asbacteriawillconsumedeadbodiesandmostotherorganicmaterials. Butittakestimeforthis,andtoomuchorganicwastecanoverwhelm naturalscavengers. Theamountofwasteproducedbyhumansinhigh-incomesocieties wouldhavebeenunbelievabletoourprogenitorsofevenacenturyago.In asense,wearedrowninginourownwaste.Individualsinafarmfamily in1840wouldneverhavethoughtofwasteasaproblem.Theyproduced solittle.Aprivytookcareoftheirownexcreta.Themanurefromtheir livestockwasavaluedfertilizerfortheirfields.Anyleftoverfooditems wentintoslopfortheirhogs.Newspapersbecametheirtoiletpaper,or kindlingfortheirwoodfires.Ashesfromtheirstoveswentontothegarden as a fertilizer or into an ash pit, where rainwater seeped through andprovidedthelyeneededforsoaporhominy.Worn-outclothes,and
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theyhadfewofthese,providedthescrapsneededforanewquilt,while worn-outfurniturewasburnedinastoveorinanoutdoortrashfire.The maindisposableitems,ashadbeenthecaseforcenturies,werebroken glassware,buttons,worn-outpotsandpans,andworn-outstovesorfarm tools.Thesetheytossedintothenearestsinkhole.Ifcareless,theycreated agrowingdumpinasecludedareanearhouseorbarn.Otherwise,they hadnogarbageproblem.Butcitiesdid,andsodidnewfactories,with some,suchastanneries,producingtoxicwastes. Howdifferentitistoday.Americansnowproducealmosttwothousandpoundsofsolidwastepercapitaperyear.Muchofthisishousehold waste,therestindustrialandgovernmental.Disposalisamajornational problem.Abouttwo-thirdsofallthissolidwastenowendsupinlandfills.The other third is recycled, incinerated, or composted (primarily leaves or tree limbs).A small proportion of this solid waste is highly toxic,andincludessuchspecializeditemsasmedicalorhospitalwaste (nowplentifulbecausealmostallitemsusedonpatientsaredisposables), nuclear waste, and industrial chemicals.Two-thirds of this solid waste endsupon,orin,soil.Inallcases,itcontaminatesthesoilandalmost alwayspollutesit,atleastintheimmediateareaofadumporlandfill. Theworstpollutionisindumpingareasforindustrialchemicalsandat abandonedmines.Addedtoallthisisanother,noteasilyclassifiedform ofsolidwaste—thelargemassesofmanurefromlargechickenandhog “factories”andlargebeeffeedinglots.Ifnotcontained,thismanurepollutesstreams.Itemitsmethane,agreenhousegas,andattimesadeadly amountofsulphurdioxide.Ifturnedintoaliquifiedsoupinlagoonsand spreadonfields,itcanpollutethenearbyairandoffendthosewhohave tosmellit. Consumptionpatternsandtherelativelylowcostofconsumergoods supportourwastefulsociety.Someestimatethateasilyathirdofallfood servedonAmericantablesendsupingarbagebags.Theinediblestemsor peelingsorcoresthatusedtogotothehogsnowgointothegarbagecan. MostAmericanshavedozensofchangesofclothesandshoes.Containers ofallsorts—bags,cans,bottles,boxes—accumulateeveryday,andmost endupinthetrash(thisdespiteagrowthinrecycling).Theamountof unrecycledwastepapercontinuestoexpandyearly.Astrollalongalmost anystreetongarbageortrashdayrevealshowmuchreasonablyintact furnitureortoysorpotsandpansAmericansthrowaway,orhowmany stillfunctionalappliances.Thecostofreplacementsissolow,andlabor
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costs so high, that repairs are rarely cost effective. Besides,Americans wantnewversions,andarewillingtopayfortheprivilege.Itisnottrue thatmanufacturersdeliberatelyinsureearlyobsolescence.Asawhole,in almosteveryproductarea,qualityhascontinuedtogoupandthenormallifespanofapplianceshasneverbeenhigher.Ourlargesthousehold disposableisusuallytheautomobile.Soonerorlatertoomanyofthese endupinbackyardsorinjunkyards,althoughmostarenowrecycled fortheirsteel.Castoffautomobileandtrucktiresseemtobeeverywhere, andsofartherecyclingofsuchrubberisnotprofitable. Inthecaseofpollution,asformostissuesofenvironmentalconcern, thewealthyandpoorcountriesaremovingeverfartherapart.Despitestill rising levels of energy use, the annual introduction of new chemicals, and the continued proliferation of waste, most wealthy countries have beenabletodevelopawidearrayofregulationstocontrolalltypesof pollution.Attheveryleast,air,water,andsoilpollutionhavestabilized, despite the dramatic increase in per capita consumption. But poorer countrieshavenothadtheresources,orthepoliticalstability,neededto regulatepollution.Ifanything,itisworseyearbyyear.InSouthandEast Asia, stretching from theArabian Sea to Japan, almost half the world’s populationnowsuffersannuallyincreasinglevelsofairandwaterpollution.Theyareunderapermanenthazecreatedbysuspendedparticles andaerosols,mostofhumanorigin,andmostcausedbytheunregulated consumptionofwoodandcoal.Bothhealthandclimateareatrisk. Twoissuesguideeffortsatpollutioncontrol.Firstistheamountof riskposedbyanytypeofpollution.Thisisacomplexproblem,onethat hasledtomuchscholarship.Almostalways,theriskofgreatestconcernis humanhealth.Theknowledgeneededtoassessthisisoftenmissing,thus leadingtomajorresearchefforts.Almosteverysciencemaybeinvolved. Thesecondissueiscost.Itisimpossibletoprotectpeoplefromallenvironmentalrisks.Acertainnumberofpeoplewilldienextyearbecause ofsometypeofpollution.Lifeexpectancyinapopulationisreducedby pollution.Itisrelativelyeasytoestimatethenumberthatwillbeaffected bycigarettesmoke,buthowmanywilldieofrespiratorydiseasescaused, atleastinpart,byasbestosdust?Governmentregulatorstrytoanswer suchquestions,andoftenhaveerredbybeingoverlycautious.Butfor dozensofchemicals,therisksarefarfromclear,andfirmestimatesare impossible.Ifasocietycouldaffordit,thenitshouldalwayserronthe sideofextremecaution.Butnosocietycanaffordalltheregulationsand
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controlsthatmightsaveafewlives,notwithoutsacrificingthequality oflifeenjoyedbyalmosteveryone.Economistsinsistthatenvironmental regulationsmustbecosteffective.Whatthisrequiresisoftenasdifficult todetermineasthedegreeofrisk.Obviously,aseconomistspointout, thereareopportunitycostsforenforcinganyformofregulation.Thatis, themoneyspentcannotbeusedelsewhere,tomeetotherhumanneeds. Sotradeoffsarenecessary.Insomesense,autilitariancalculushastoapply, which means support for policies which offer the most utility, or satisfactions,orhappinesstothemostpeople.2
LEGISLATIONINTHEUNITEDSTATESTOCONTROL POLLUTIONANDWASTE Today,inmostcountriesinwesternEuropeandintheUnitedStates,hundredsofdifferentlawsregulatealmosteveryimaginableformofpollution,includingevennoisepollution.Roughlysimilarlawsexistinmany developingcountries,butenforcementhasusuallybeenlax.Iwillhere surveyonlythemajorlegislationintheUnitedStatesthatdealswithair andwaterpollutionandwastemanagement. Beginningasearlyasthe1950s,Congresspassedaseriesofpollution controlactsforbothairandwater.Eachnewlawsincethenhasbeenin theformofamendmentstoearlierlegislation,meaningacomplicated bodyofregulations.Byconvention,butnotalwaysbylegislativename, these series of bills have become known as CleanAir and CleanWater Acts.Thefirsttoughactscamein1970(air)and1972(water).Aseriesof revisionsfollowed,withthemostcomprehensiveforairin1990,andfor waterin1977.TheCleanAirActof1990isoneofthemostcomplicated lawseverenactedbyCongress,withovereighthundredpagesofregulations. In broad terms, the 1990 amendments simply updated controls oversmog,acidrain,movingvehicleemissions,andhazardousortoxic pollutantscontainedinthe1970act,andaddednew,verydetailedregulationsforozone-depletinggasestohonorinternationalagreements. In1970smogwasthedominatingissue.The1970acthaddetailed rules governing what the EPA would soon designate as three criteria air pollutants, ozone, carbon monoxide, and particulates (soot, dust, smoke).Itsprimaryrulesinvolvedthesepollutantsastheyaffectedhumanhealth,withsecondaryrulesbasedonthreatstootherformsoflife ortoproperty.Inthecaseofsmog,orprimarilyozone,theactspecified
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five levels of nonattainment of stipulated goals, expressed in parts per million.The1970actsetthresholdlevelsforozoneat0.12ppm,butin 1990thenewamendmentsloweredthisto0.08ppmmeasuredovera one-hourperiod.Allprivatepersons(thisincludescorporations)hadto havepermitsforallcriteriapollutantsreleasedintotheatmosphere.But themajorproblemwithozoneinvolvedmotorvehicles(overhalfcame fromautomobilesinurbanareas),andherethestateshadtobringall geographical areas into compliance with the regulations by particular deadlines.Manycitiesdidnotmeetthesegoals,andthusin1990Congressnotonlyraisedtheante,butatthesametimesetupmoregradual andreasonablecompliancedeadlines.TheClintonAdministrationadded even higher standards in 1997 (a maximum of 0.085 ppm of ozone measuredovereighthours),butcourtchallengeskeptthesefromgoing intoeffectuntil2001.Citiesandcountiesthatfailedtocomplywiththe newstandardsriskedthelossofvariousfederalgrants,particularlyfor transportation,andpermitsfornewbusinesses. TheEPAhasnotseemedveryeagertoenforcethehigherstandardsfor pollutants.OnlybyApril2004diditdeterminewhichcitiesandcounties werenotincompliancewiththenewairqualitystandards.Ozonewas themajorconcern,althoughnewrulesgovernedtheemissionofsulfur andnitrogenoxidesbypowerplants.Thelevelofnoncompliancewasno surprise,formunicipalitiesknewthattheyhadnotmetthenewozone standards.Infact,474countieswerenotincompliance.Theymadeupa relativelysmallpercentageofthetotalamountofland(eighteenstates, largelyintheWest,werefullycompliant),buttheywereconcentratedin populousmetropolitanareas.OverhalftheAmericanpopulationlivedin noncompliantcounties,withmostinCaliforniaandtheeasternUnited States.Alloffourstates—NewJersey,Delaware,Connecticut,andMassachusetts—werenoncompliant,inpartbecauseofpollutantsthatblewin fromstatestothewestandsouth.Becausetheviolationsweresowidespread,theaffectedcountieswillnotfaceasearly,orasharsh,sanctions asenvironmentalistshadwished.Theyhavethreeyearstodevelopplans toreducetheozoneandsootlevels.Thoseclosetocompliancehavetobe fullycompliantby2007,thoseatthemoderatelevel(most)havetocomplyby2010,andthosewiththemostsevereproblemshaveuntil2021. Motorvehiclesarethemajorsourceofozoneandsuchothercriteria pollutantsasCO.Amajorprecursorofozoneisnitrousoxides.Ironically, thelead-freegasolineandcatalyticconvertersrequiredbythe1970act
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haveactuallyincreasedtheseoxides.Automobilepollutantspervehicle weredownbyfrom60percentto80percentfrom1970to1990,but airscarcelyimprovedinmanycities,simplybecausethenumberofautomobilesandthemilestraveledhadincreasedsorapidly(from1trillion milesinthe1960sto4trillionby2002).Thus,theactof1990hadeven morestringentantipollutionregulationsformovingvehicles,including locomotivesandairplanes.Underthe1970act,pollutioncontrolinengineshadtolastonlyfiftythousandmiles;after1990theyhadtogofor onehundredthousandmiles(stillveryinadequatebecausesomanycars nowrunforovertwohundredthousandmiles).Automobilesalsohad tohavedashboardindicatorsofanyfailureinthepollutioncontrolsystem.Newregulationsgoverninggasolinewentwellbeyondtheabolition oflead,andforcertainnoncomplianceareasincludedmoreexpensive, reformulatedgasoline,orgasoline-ethanolmixtures.Anincreasednumberofmetropolitanareashadtobeginautomobileinspectionprograms. Truckengineshadtomeetthepollutionrequirementsofautomobiles, andnewregulationsreducedtheemissionsofdieselengines.Someregulationsappliedtosmallengines,suchasthoseonlawnmowers.Cities receivedincentivepaymentsforstrategiestoreducedriving(forpublic transportation, high-occupancy vehicle lanes, reductions in downtown parkingspaces).Tomeetthe2004standards,somecountiesmayhaveto resorttoveryunpopularmeasures,eventotheextentofprohibitinglawn mowingbygasolinemowersinperiodsofveryhotweather. Thesecondlargestsourceofairpollutionarefactories,withsteam plantsforelectricalgenerationthesinglelargestsourceofindustrialair pollution.Boththe1970and1990actsrequiredpermitsforallpollutingemissions,whicharelargelysulphurdioxideandtwonitrousoxides, whichcausemostacidrain.Also,industrialemissionscontainthelargestnumberofhazardouspollutants.Thisisparticularlytrueofchemical plants,pulpmills,andoilrefineries.The1970actlistedonlyseventoxic pollutants;the1990actlisted189andgavetheEPAtheauthoritytoadd tothislist(itdoessoeveryyear).Anyplantthatcanbeidentifiedasa sourceoftoxicairpollutantshastomeetthehighestpossiblestandard: the maximum available control technology. Producers face very high penaltiesiftheyviolatethisstandard.Fortheacid-formingoxides,which areanunavoidableproductoffossilfuelconsumption,producershave togainapermitforanallowablelevelofemissions.Theselevelswillbecomemorerestrictivethroughtime,andrequirenewtechnologiesinall
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newplants.Forbothsulphurandnitrogenoxides,the1990actprovides foramarket-basedsystem.TheEPAhasestablishedanemissionrelease allowancesystem(forexample,onetonofSO2equalsoneallowance). Accordingtonationalgoals,basedonthetargetlevelofallowablepollution,eachproducerreceivesacertainnumberofallowances,andfaces highpenaltiesifitexceedsthenumber.Butaproducercanshiftthearray ofpollutionemissionsamongdifferentplants,solongasallofthemdo notexceedthetotalquota.Iftheybeatthestandard,theyhavesurplus allowancesthattheycanretaintouseagainstfutureviolations,ortosell tootherfirmsthatfacepenalties.Thismarket-basedsystemaddssome flexibilityandprovidesastrongincentiveforvoluntaryreductions. Insomecases,enforcementofcleanairstatuteshasprovedverydifficult.The best example is emissions from steam power plants. In the CleanAirActof1970,Congresssettough,newemissionstandardstobe metby1975.Inmostcases,utilitiesmetthesestandardsfornewplants, butcouldhavemettheminolderplantsonlyatgreatexpense.Congress thusgrandfatheredinolderplants.By1977itwasclearthatmostutilitieswerepatchingandupgradingolderplants,andthuslegallyevading thenewstandards.ThusCongresssoamendedtheactastorequirean upgradingtonewstandardswhenautilitymadesubstantialrepairsto olderplants,orwhattheEPAcallednewsourcereview.Veryfewutilities compliedwiththisnewregulation,andtheEPAwaslaxinenforcingit. Theutilitiesarguedthatitwasunclearwhatamountedtoroutinemaintenanceandwhatcountedassubstantialupgrades.Thisnoncompliance meant that overall air standards remained unmet.After 1993, the new ClintonAdministration tried for years to work out some compromise withutilitiestogetvoluntarycompliancewithnewsourcereview,but theutilitiesstillsoughtwaystoevadewhat,insomecases,wouldhave beenverycostlyupdates.Thus,theEPAturnedincreasinglytolegalaction inordernotonlytochangecorporatebehavior,buttoforcecompliance forearlierfailurestomeetnewsourcerequirements.Fortheutilities,it seemedasiftheEPAhadchangedtherulesafteryearsofnonenforcement.Theutilitieshadagreatdealatstake,andtosomeextentsodidrate payers,whowouldhavetopayforcleanair. TheconflictcametoaheadinthenewGeorgeW.BushAdministrationafter2001.TheutilitieshadcontributedheavilytoBush’scampaign, andtheyexpectedregulatoryreliefinseveralareasofenvironmentallegislation.AnenergyshortageinCaliforniaandalargeblackoutintheEast
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offeredanexcuseforrelaxedenforcement.Anewandverycontroversial energybillsponsoredbytheBushAdministrationwouldhavereplaced newsourcereviewbyamodifiedpollutiontradingsystem.ButCongress never passed his energy legislation.Through executive action, theAdministrationstillfoundawaytoevisceratenewsourcereview,justatthe verytimetheEPAwasfinallyachievingsuccessinenforcingit.Thetrick wasinthephrase“substantialmodifications.”EventheBushAdministrationEPAhadsuggestedthatanyrepairsover0.75percentofthevalue ofageneratingunitwas“substantial.”Ifsetmuchhigher,utilitiescould completelyupgradeunits,bydegrees,andevadethe1990emissionstandardsrequiredforneworsubstantiallymodifiedplants. InAugust 2003, a new EPAAdministrator announced that utilities (plus factories, refineries, and chemical plants) could spend up to 20 percentofageneratingunit’sreplacementcostwithouthavingtomeet new pollution standards.This, in effect, killed new source review and meant that utilities could continue using old, heavily polluting plants indefinitely,solongastheyupgradedthemoverfiveyears.Fourteenstate attorneysgeneralbroughtasuittoblockimplementationofthesenew rulesinlate2003.InJune2005theCourtofAppealsfortheDistrictof ColumbiaruledthattheEPAhadtheauthoritytoissuenew,morelenient rulesfordefiningpollutants,butatthesametimefaultedtheagencyfor itsapplicationofseveralrules.Ingeneral,thiswasavictoryfortheutilitiesandtheBushAdministration,butwithenoughqualificationstomeet someofthedemandsofenvironmentalists.InMarch2006thesameAppealsCourtruledthat,consistentwiththeactualwordingoftheClean AirAct,theEPAcouldnotimplementthenew20percentrule.Thiswasa bitterdefeatfortheBushAdministrationandenergycompanies.Thecase mayendupintheSupremeCourt.3 TheCleanWaterAct,asamendedseveraltimes,sharesmanysimilaritieswiththeCleanAirAct.Thelargestbodyofregulationsdatefromthe FederalWaterPollutionControlActof1972,andfrommanyrevisionsof thisactin1977,orwhatmostnowcalltheCleanWaterAct.Incremental changessincethenhavenotbeenasimportantastheCleanAiramendmentsof1990.TheCleanWaterActof1977hasthreeexplicitpurposes: first,toreducethedirectdischargeofpollutantsintoourlakes,streams, andnearbyoceans;second,toencourageandhelpfundthedevelopment ofmunicipalwastewatertreatmentfacilities;and,third,tocontributeto themanagementofpollutedrunoffwater(non-pointpollution).Theef-
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fectshouldbetheprotectionoffish,shellfish,andotherwildlifeandthe provisionofhealthywater-basedrecreation.TheCleanWaterActdoesnot encompassgroundwaters,orinanywaydealwiththequalityofwater availableforhumanuses.Otherlegislationdirectlycontrolsthequalityof drinkingwater,whilepollutioncontrolformostfederalwaterprojects, suchasthosebytheCorpsofEngineers,involvestheEnvironmentalImpactStatementsmandatedbyNationalEnvironmentalPolicyActof1970. EvenmorethanundertheCleanAirAct,theEPAworkswiththestatesin controllingwaterpollution.Thefederalgovernmentsetsthestandards, butitisusuallythestatesthatenforcethem. Ineffect,theCleanWaterActinvolvesfederallymandatedpermitsfor allpersons(andthuscorporations)thatdischargepollutantsintonavigablewaters,federalfundsforstateormunicipalwastewatersystems, andguidelinesandinsomecasesfinancialincentivesfornon-pointpollutionorrunoffbeachimprovements.Ithasratherelaborateregulations, andheavypenalties,foroffshoreoilspills.Itsdefinitionofpollutionincludes sewage sludge and the effects of stream dredging. It has some exceptions.Itdoesnotrequirepermitsforthereturnwaterfromirrigation,orthestormrunofffromminingandoildrilling(otherlegislation controlsmuchofthis,particularlystrip-mining).Itincludesaprovision for cleaning up polluted lakes, carried out through state-based inventories and projects, and a joint Canada–United States program for the GreatLakes.Butmostofitsdetailedregulationsandpenaltiesinvolveits permitsystemfordirectdischarges,andthusitsgoalofmaintainingor restoringwaterquality.Itsgreatestlimitationisthecontrolofnon-point pollution,whichaboveallelseinvolvesagriculturalrunoff.Itdoeshave some control over city runoff and storm sewers, but there is no easy waytomeasurethecontributionofanyonepersonorfirmtothefertilizer,pesticides,orhouseholddetergentsthatcontributeuptoone-halfof thepollutionofourstreamsandlakes.Underotherlegislation,theEPA doescloselyregulatetheuseofpesticides.TheEPAhasworkedtoreduce non-pointpollutionbyguidelinesandvoluntaryaction,andincooperation with involved states it has helped develop some broad watershed protectionprojects(oneinvolvestheSusquehannaandthepollutionof theChesapeakeBay),andwiththemstateregulationofcertainfarming practices. AfinalmajorcategoryofEPAregulationissolidwaste.Herethelegislativebackgroundiscomplex,asalways,butbyfarthemostimportant
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authorizing legislation is the Resource Conservation and RecoveryAct (RCRA)of1976.Itofferedthefirstdetailedfederalrulesforthedisposal of both solid and hazardous waste, and it empowered the EPA to use varioustacticstoencouragetherecyclingandrecoveryofmaterials,to encouragethereductionofwasteatitssource,andtohelplocalgovernments clean up existing waste.This final responsibility took on major andveryexpensiveimplicationswiththeSuperfundlegislationandprogramthatbeganin1980.Dozensofmorespecializedbills—involving suchpollutantsasmedicalwaste,asbestos,usedoil,miningwaste,pesticides,radiation,andbatteries—supplementtheRCRA.Thetwolargest sourcesofsolidwastearecorporationsandmunicipalities.Bothdispose ofmostnonhazardoussolidwasteinlandfills,followedbyincineration andcomposting.Thefederalgovernmentprovidesdetailedguidelinesfor landfills,buttheactualregulationofsuchlegaldumpsisbythestates. Variousrulesgovernthedisposalofhazardousmaterials,includingmedicalwaste.Somehastobeincinerated,someischemicallytransformed, andsomegoesintospeciallandfills. Waste reduction, nationally, usually means recycling, sinceAmericansareunwillingtolowerconsumptionorgiveuptheconvenience,or safety,oftheelaboratepackagingusedforalmostallconsumerproducts, or to repair and continue in use outdated appliances or automobiles. Olderdepositandrefundprograms,asformilkandsoftdrinkbottles, haveallbutended.TheEPAencouragesrecycling,monitorsandinstructs localgovernments,andpublisheseffectivepromotionstogetcitizensto recycle and to buy recycled products, but the actual programs are locallydeveloped.Mostmunicipalitiesnowhaveeithercurbside(overnine thousand)ordropoff(twelvethousand)recycling.Since1990,recycling has doubled, and now joins composting to save 64 million tons that wouldotherwiseendupinlandfillsorincinerators.Thataddsupto28 percentofsolidwaste.Americansnowrecycle42percentofallpaper,55 percentofaluminumcans,57percentofsteelcans,40percentofplastic bottles,and52percentofallappliances.Becauseoffederalregulations, almostallautomobilebatteriesarerecycled.Themajorlimitonrecycling has been a market (or demand) for the products, with great volatility inpricesforpaperinparticular.Toasurprisingextent,consumershave beenwillingtocooperatewithrecyclingprograms,evenwhenthishas requiredextraeffortorexpense.Whatisnotclearisthepotentialforany drasticincreaseinrecycling,giventhemarketconstraints.Organicwaste
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canbeincinerated,andhasoftenprovidedprofitsforcitieswhenused togenerateelectricityortoheatbuildings,buthereamethodofwaste managementoftenrunsagroundonantipollutionlegislation.Compostingwillremainausefuldisposalmethodforleavesandgrassclippings, butprobablynotmuchelse. The final mandate of the RCRA—cleaning up existing waste—has becomeamajorprojectfortheEPA,butonlyforhazardouswastes.The experienceofthecitizensofLoveCanal,aresidentialneighborhoodnear NiagaraFalls,NewYork,becameacausecélèbreby1978.Aroundathousand people had moved into homes constructed over or near the site of a former industrial dump, in an old canal, a site that by the 1970s containedburiedandalmostforgottenbarrelsofwastechemicalsfroma plantthathadmanufacturedpesticidesandpetrochemicals.Afteraflood, the contents began seeping to the surface or into basements.Tests revealedtoxicchemicals,althoughatlowlevels.Butonechildhadbirth defectsandlearningdifficulties,whichtheparentsattributedtotheseepingchemicals.Bytheverynatureofthehandicap,noonecouldestablish pollutionasthecause.ButEPAmeasurementofdrainagefromthearea found a wide variety of toxic chemicals, some in low concentrations, despitecleanupeffortsbythechemicalcompanythatownedthesite(it wasnottheoriginalpolluter). When EPA-funded tests found chromosomal damage in eleven of thirty-sixresidents,atypeofnearhysteriabrokeoutinLoveCanal,with protestsandconfrontations,plusnationwidemediacoverage.Becauseof thechromosomestudy,plussomestatisticalevidenceofhigherthannormalincidenceofmiscarriagesandbirthdefects,PresidentCarterdeclared LoveCanaladisasterareaanduseddisasterfundstohelpinwhatbecame acompleterelocationoftheresidents.Laterstudiessomewhatlessened thedegreeofpossibleriskandsuggestedadegreeofoverreactionbyauthorities,butclearly,atthetime,aseriesofoftenconfusingorconflicting studiesjustifiedthefearonthepartofresidents.Italsojustifiedabroader national concern about other such toxic waste sites, for such worries wereobviouslynotrestrictedtoLoveCanal. This concern led Congress to enact the Comprehensive Response, Compensation, and LiabilityAct of 1980. Congress also authorized an original$1.6billiontrustfundtopayforthecontemplatedcleanupof wastesites,withthemoneycomingfromnewtaxesoncrudeoiland commercial chemicals (likely targets, because these were two primary
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sources of toxic wastes). By 1986, when this so-called Superfund was alreadyalmostdepleted,Congressbroadenedthetaxbaseandmandated thatthefundbereplenishedfrommoneyrecoveredfromthoseresponsibleforthepollution.Theliabilitywasretroactive(thepollutershadnot violatedexistinglawsatthetimeofpollution),anditappliedtopresent ownerswhohadpurchasedsuchsiteseveniftheydidnotknowthesites were polluted. Even if several companies or individuals had shared in theoriginaldumping,anyoneofthemcouldbeheldfullyresponsible (importantbecausesomanypeopleandcompanieswhohadcontributed haddiedorgoneoutofbusiness).Thisinsuredacontinuousseriesof lawsuitsoverliabilitywhenpartieswhowereidentifiedasbeingresponsiblewerenotwillingtofundthecleanupvoluntarily.Inmanycases,the liabilityprovisionsseemedunfair,whichcausedtheEPAnoendofbad publicity. Fromthebeginning,theEPAtriedtoidentifytoxicwastesites,andto rankthemostdangerousforearlycleanup.Thefirstsiteswerethose,such asLoveCanal,thathadledtorelocation,thosethatofferedthegreatest threattohumanhealthiftheyleaked,and,evenifthesecriteriadidnot apply,thosethateachstateselectedasthehighestpriority.By1996the EPAhadidentifiedthirteenhundredsitesthatthreatenedhealthorthe environment,andhadcompletedthecleanupofovertwohundred(in 1990,familiesbegantomovebackintoLoveCanal,andtheSuperfund efforttherewascompletedby2004).Thesesuccessfulcleanupstended tobeatemergencysites,thosethatposedimmediatedangerstopeople. Inthisrespectthefundwasanearlysuccess.Butthelarger,morecostly sites, or those encumbered with endless lawsuits, caused the expenditurestosoar,withmuchofthemoneygoingtolawyersandconsultants. AdministrativereformsintheClintonAdministrationhavespeededupa painfullyslowandexpensiveprocess(over$60billionspentsofar).At firstglance,theprogram’sachievementsseemimpressive(assessmentof over44,000sites,someremedialworkonover5,000ofthem,846completedthroughconstructionorremovalactivity(manyofthesestillcontainsometoxicmaterialsandhavetobereviewedeveryfiveyears),and 649withongoingconstruction.Buteachcompletedprojecthastaken overtenyearsandcostaround$25million,withalmostone-thirdofthe cost going to attorneys.Yet, despite intense congressional scrutiny and consistentlyunhappyadministrations,theeffortcontinues.Theproblems arereal,andnoothermechanismisavailabletoalleviatethem.4
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Themeasureofimpactfromallthisenvironmentallegislationisnot thepresentstatusofair,water,soil,oreventoxicwastesites.Eachhasimproved,atleastinmanyareas,butrisingconsumptionkeepsuppingthe ante,particularlyforairandwater.Thetruemeasureishowmuchworse eachwouldhavebeenwithouttheregulationsandenforcement.Given thetrendsinthe1960sandearly1970s,thisisdifficulttoimagine.At thepolicylevel,thebalancebetweentightandmorerelaxedregulation willcontinue.Atpresent,undertheBushAdministration,theopponents oftougherregulationhavehadtheupperhand.Environmentaladvocates haveneverfeltasbeleaguered.Buttoalargeextenttheregulationsare heretostay,andhavebroadpublicsupport.Despitethepolicycontroversies,themomentumfavorsacontinuationofexistingprograms,continuouspolicyreviews,andgraduallyhigherstandardsinalmostallareas.
STRATOSPHERICOZONEDEPLETION TheUnitedStateshastakentheleadinoneareaofinternationalpollution control.Arguably,themostominouspollutionevertoconfronthumans, atleastinitspotentialeffectsanduniversalscope,arealargenumberof gases,mostproducedbyhumans,thathelpreducetheamountofstratosphericozone,andthusthemajorshieldoftheearth’ssurfaceagainstoftendeadlyultravioletradiation.Becauseofitssignificance,Iwillendthis chapterwiththestoryofstratosphericozonedepletionandinternational effortstomitigatetheproblem. Early efforts to control ozone-depleting gases followed other internationalagreementsinvolvingpollution.Inthe1950sandearly1960s, themostpressinginternationalproblemseemedtobethefalloutfrom abovegroundtestingofatomicbombs.ThisledtotheTestBanTreatyof 1963(onlyFranceandChinacontinuedtestsbeyondthatdate).Bythe 1970s, acid rain had become a major concern, particularly in Europe. In 1979 the United Nations established a Convention on Long Range TransboundaryAirPollution,aconventionthatneverledtoanybinding protocols, but which did lead to a worldwide air pollution monitoring network. European countries also worked out binding protocols forsulfurandnitrousoxides.Severalinternationalagenciessupported scientificcooperationinvolvingalmostalltypesofpollution.TheseincludedtheWorldHealthOrganization,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganization,andtheWorldClimateProgrammeoftheUnitedNations.But
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inscope,andeffectiveness,noneoftheserivaledtheefforttoprotectthe ozonelayer. Ozonedepletionreflectsaverycomplexhistory,onefullofirony.The storydemonstrateshowhumaninquiry,andwhatseemtobewonderful newproducts,canendupcausingunanticipatedandseriousharmtothe life-supportingmechanismsofourplanet.Thestorybeganinthe1920s whenascientistworkingfortheFrigidaireDivisionofGeneralMotors synthesizedanewrefrigerant,achlorofluorocarbon(CFC),toreplaceearliertoxicandcorrosivechemicals.Soonscientistsdevelopedafamilyofsix suchgases,eachwithaslightlydifferentmolecularstructure.Inthe1930s theDuPontCorporationgainedatrademark—Freon—fortheCFCsused asrefrigerants.TheimportanceoftheCFCsandtheirmultipleusesdidnot becomeclearuntilabout1950(whichisalsowhenthebuildupofCFCsin theatmospherefirsttookoff).CFCshadsomewonderfulattributes—flame resistant,inertinthetroposphere,andthusnoncorrosive,orqualitiesalmost perfect for refrigerants, aerosol sprays, and various solvents.These newgasesdemonstratedthatinquiry,inmanycases,involvesnotdiscovery butthecreationofnewcompoundsnotpreviouslypresentinnature. MostCFCsincommercialuseeventuallyendedupintheearth’satmosphere,directlysointhecaseofaerosolsprays,andasaresultofleaks inthecaseofrefrigeration.Atfirst,noonesensedanydanger,andthus humans rather recklessly used CFCs.As we now know, the amount of chlorineintheatmospherebegantogrowrapidlyafter1950,reaching fourtimesitsearlier,naturallevelbythe1990s.Bythe1970s,different measurementsoftheozonelayerinthestratosphereindicatedathinning. By1973thechemicalinteractionsofchlorineandozonewereknown. Then, in 1974, in a Nobel Prize–winning article, Sherwood Rowland andMarioMolinarevealedthestratosphericroleofCFCsandattributed muchoftherecentozonethinningtosuchhumancauses.Thisimplicates acomplexstoryabouttheearth’satmosphereanditsroleinmakingsurfacelifeonearthpossible.Soonafterthisalarm,globalwarmingbecame asecondmajorconcern,withCFCsagainimplicated,fortheyarevery powerfulgreenhousegases. Mostearlylifeonearthwasunderwaterorunderland.Intenseultraviolet radiation precluded most forms of life at the surface. Only a verylimitedmethanescreenthenimpededsuchradiation.But,intime, as ocean vegetation created more and more atmospheric oxygen, this changed for the better. Less and less ultraviolet radiation reached the
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earth’ssurface.Thiswasbecauseoftheincreasedscreeningoutofsuch radiationbyozone.Ozoneisanatomicvariantofoxygen.Oxygennormallyexistsinamolecularformwithtwoatoms;inozoneithasthree atoms.Itformsnaturallyinthunderstorms,whenintenselyhotboltsof lightingcreateitfromatmosphericoxygen.Forcommercialuses(such asdisinfectantsorbleaches),acontrolledelectricaldischargecreatesthe neededozone.Itisalsoabyproductofcombustion,sincenitrogenoxidesreactwithhydrocarbonstoproducesmallquantitiesofozone.Itis themostirritatingingredientinsmog,foritisbothnoxiousandtoxic. Heavierthannormaloxygen,surfaceozonehangsaboutanddoesnot usuallyriseintothestratosphere(thoughasmallamountmayreachthe stratosphereinthetropics). Ozoneisoneoftheminorgasesinouratmosphere,buttheatmosphereislarge.Itholdsabout3billionmetrictonsofozone,about10 percentnearthesurface,whereitisamajorpollutant(badozone),and therestinthestratosphere(goodozone),whereitscreensoutenough ultravioletlighttomakehumansurfacelifepossible.Ourpresentmode ofstratifyingtheatmospheredirectlyreflectstheroleofozone.Thelayer ofairjustabouttheearth’ssurface,orthetroposphere,variesseasonally inheightfromaslowaseightkilometerstoabouteighteen.Inthetroposphere,whereweatherphenomenatakeplace,theairtemperaturecools withelevation,orwithlesspressureorcompressionandthuslessmolecularactivity.Thiscreatesatemperaturegradientofcoolinguptothetop ofthetroposphere,ortothetropopause.Here,thenormaltemperature gradientreverses,andtheatmospherewarmsasonemoveshigher.Itis thiszoneofwarming,orreallyofahugeairinversion,thatwecallthe stratosphere.Itvariesinheightfromseasontoseasonandfromareato area,butonaverageisabandfromaboutfifteentofiftykilometers.Atits top,orstratopause,thenowverythinairresumesitsnormalpatternof cooling.Sinceitistheprocessthatcreatesupperlevelozonethatcauses mostofthewarming,thestratospheremightbereferredtoastheozonosphere.Stratosphericwarminghasmanyimplicationsforclimate,totally apartfromtheozoneformation,butthesearenotrelevanttothischapter. Forexample,largecyclonicstorms,withrapidlyrisingwarmair,often pushuptothetropopause,buttheinversion,theincreasinglywarmair, stopstheupward,convectivespiral,thussettingalimittotheintensity ofstormsandactinglikealidtokeepmostwatervaporandcondensed dropletsinthetroposphere.
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Fortunatelyforhumans,andforallsurfacelife,oxygeninthestratosphere absorbs some ultraviolet radiation from the highest frequency, orshortestwaveportionoftheultravioletspectrum,withwavelengths below240nanometers(nanomeansabillionth).Thischemicalinteractionwarmsthesurroundingair,anddisassociatessomenormaloxygen moleculesintosingleatoms(O1).Someofthesemergewithnormaloxygentoproduceozone,orO3.Theozonecreatedbythisprocessisthinly spread through the stratosphere, but is most thick at about thirty-five kilometers.Ifcompressed,thetotalamountofstratosphericozonewould makealayerofonlythreemillimetersovertheearth’ssurface.Butthis ozonelayer,thinasitis,doesawonderfulserviceforlife.Itabsorbsmost oftheultravioletradiationwithwavelengthsaboveabout240nanometers (closertovisiblelight)andupto320nanometers.Itdoesnotabsorball thisultravioletradiation,andthusoursunburns,wrinkles,andskincancers (onegoodeffect—thecreationofvitaminDbythebody).Butthemoreit blocksthesaferweare.Iftheozonelayerthins,thenwearemorevulnerable,andsuchafflictionsasskincancerrise,astheyhaveriseninthelast twodecades.For,quiteclearly,theozonelayerhasthinned. Whatcausesittothin?Normally,stratosphericozonebreaksdown through time. Single-atom oxygen molecules (O1) occasionally merge withozone(O3)tocreatetwonormaloxygenmolecules(O2),aprocess called recombination.The process is slow, in part because the oxygen atomionissoscarce,andinpartbecausesuchsingleatomscontinueto combinewithO2tocreatemoreozone.Variousothergasesactascatalyststospeedupthisprocessofozonedecay.Withoutthese,theamount ofstratosphericozonewouldbeapproximatelydoubleitspresentlevels, witharangeofpossibleeffects,includingmorewarmingofouratmosphere.Themajorcatalystsarenitrogenoxides,varioushydrogencompounds,and,mostimportantrecently,threehalogens(fluorine,chlorine, andbromine)andtheircompounds.Onlyaverythinmixtureofchlorineexistsnaturallyintheatmosphere,intheformofmethylchloride (only75,000tons).Thus,almostallthechlorinecatalystsderivefrom human-producedCFCsorothercloselyrelatedgases,suchashydrochlorofluorocarbons(HCFCs),orover300,000tonsintotal.Inertinthetroposphere,inthestratosphereCFCs,aswellasseveralotherhalogen-based gases,breakdownunderultravioletbombardment.Itisderivativeforms, twostepsremovedfromCFCs,suchaspurechlorineorchlorinemonoxide,thatserveascatalyststoozonedepletion.Thechemicalprocesses
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arecomplex,butfullyunderstood.Notethat,ascatalyticagents,thederivativesofCFCsdonotmerge,exceptbriefly,withozone,butkeepon stimulatingitsbreakdownaslongastheyremaininthestratosphere,and thiscanbeforoveronehundredyears. ChlorinederivativesofCFCsarenottheonlyozone-depletinggases, butjustthelargestofatleastahundredmolecularlydistinctgasesattributabletohumancauses.Brominecompoundsareactuallymorepowerful catalysts than chlorine, but fortunately less plentiful. However, today, bromine compounds have become more significant because of more effective controls over chlorine. Despite restrictions, use of the two mostimportantbrominecompoundsarestillgrowing—halons,afamilyofgasesusedprimarilyinfireextinguishers,andmethylbromide, increasinglyusedinagriculturetosterilizesoilsandvegetablesandfruit. Atpresent,nocomparable,inexpensivesubstituteshavebeenfoundfor either.5 After 1974, all these atmospheric processes were well understood. Thequestionthatdoesnotyetlenditselftoadefinitiveansweris,what amountofozonethinningisattributabletohuman-producedgases,and whattoothernaturalprocesses?By1985,satelliteandgroundobservationsinAntarcticarevealedlargerthannormalwintertimethinningof the ozone layer over this frozen continent, or what some referred to, notquiteaccurately,asholesinthelayerinlatewinterorearlyspring, afterwindpatternshadlargelyisolatedAntarcticafromanymixingfrom the middle latitudes.These “holes” had not existed before the 1950s. Fewpeople,exceptsomeantienvironmentalkooks,deniedtheinfluence ofhuman-producedchlorinegasesonpolarthinning.Heretheprocess involvesotherchemicalreactionsthanthosedescribedabove,reactions involvingstratosphericcloudsoverAntarcticaandanalmostindisputable roleforchlorine.Inbrief,thecoldAntarcticaairfreezesthenitrogenin chlorinenitrate,freeinglargequantitiesofchlorine,acatalystforozone recombination.Thefrozennitratecreatesatypeofcirrusclouds.Note that these conditions—a pool of isolated air and nitrate freezing—are largelylimitedtoAntarctica,althoughuptoafourthofsuchreactions occurinsomeyearsinthelessisolatedArcticatmosphere.Inrecentyears inAntarctica,thelatewinterlossofozonehasbeenashighas60to70 percent,withtheresultingincreaseinultravioletradiationbeingashigh as150percentoreven300percentlocally.EvenintheArctic,radiation hasincreasedby25percentinverycoldwinters.
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Thethinningelsewheredoesraisesomeproblemsofcausationand exactmeasurement.Thethinninghasbeenslightinthetropicsbutaveraged an alarming 3 percent thinning each year below pre-1980 levels duringthe1980satmid-latitudes,or4percenteachyearfrom1978to 1992(thesearenotcumulativeamounts,butyearlydeparturesfromthe 1980base).Theregionaldifferencesaregreat,andeveninafewnorthernlatitudesthethinninghasbeenverylimited.Therateofthinning,at firstfornoclearreason,jumpedabruptlyin1992–1993,withuptoan 11percentdeclineinsomeareas.Thiscausedgreatalarm.Then,justas suddenly,thethinningslowedafter1993,andhasshownsomevolatilitysincethen.Theunusuallyrapidthinning,aswenowknow,wasone resultoftheeruptionofthehugePhilippinevolcanoPinatuboin1991. Itpushedaerosolsintothestratosphere,whichscatteredlightandslowed theproductionofozone.From1997to2003,theozonelayerhasbeen stableinthetropics,butdownby3percentonaverageinthemid-and higherlatitudesoftheNorthernHemisphere,anddown6percentinthe samelatitudesintheSouthernHemisphere.Thishasmeantanincreasein ultravioletradiationoffrom5.2to7percent.Becauseofsuchvolatility,a fewscientistsstilldoubtthathumancauseshavesignificantlyinfluenced ozonethinninginthemiddlelatitudes,andhavesuggestedalternative theories,none,intheestimationofamajorityofatmosphericscientists, fullypersuasiveorevidenced. TotheextentthatCFCsandotherhuman-producedgaseshavecaused the thinning, then ozone depletion is, in almost all respects, an ideal problem for international alleviation.The role of human activity is almost beyond doubt. Since human health is at stake, the risks are very high,higherthanforanyotherformofairpollution,althoughscientists disagreeaboutthedegreeofrisksolongasthedegreeofozonethinning remainssmall.Sooncomparable,butnotalwaysinexpensive,substitutes forCFCsandotherhalogen-basedgaseswereavailable.Thesolutionwas clear,andinthisrarecaseasolutionthatcouldworkratherquickly—get ridofhuman-contributedCFCsandotherozone-depletinggases.Even beforetheextentoftheproblemwasclear,in1978theEPAplacedaban onCFCaerosolsexceptformedicallycriticalinhalants.Afewothercountriesfollowed.Then,asthedangersofCFCsbecamemoreclear,agroup ofnations,meetinginViennain1985,signedaconventionthatrequired themeachtotakeappropriatestepstoreduceozone-depletinggases. Worldwide attention to the so-called ozone hole inAntarctica cre-
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atedanewurgency.Thus,ninety-threenationssigneda1987protocolin MontrealonSubstancesthatDepletetheOzoneLayer.Theindustrialized countriescommittedthemselvestoreducingtheproductionofCFCsby 20percentby1993andby50percentby1999,withunderdeveloped countriestofollowwithintenyears.MeetinginLondonin1990,with greaterurgency,thesesamecountriessoamendedtheprotocolastorequireproductionofCFCsandcertainotherozone-depletinggasestostop by2000inindustrializednations,andproductionofHCFCs(widelyused, interimsubstitutesforCFCsincooling)tostopby2040,eventhough none of the HCFCs are even one-tenth as depleting as most CFCs and someonlyoneone-hundredthasdepleting.ChinaandIndia,plusother developing countries, still had an extra ten years to meet these mandatesthroughphasedreductions.Therichernationscommittedfundsto helpunderdevelopedcountriesreduceCFCsthroughaMultilateralFund, whichsofarhasspentover$1.5billioninunderdevelopednations.In addition, the United Nations–sponsored Global Environmental Facility hascontributedaboutathirdasmuch.TheUnitedStatesexertedleadershipinseekingglobalanswerstotheozoneproblem,butfacedcharges ofhypocrisybecauseitwaslargelyAmericancompaniesthatdeveloped patentedsubstitutesforCFCs. In1992,atCopenhagen,thesesamenationsmovedupthetargeted phase-outofCFCsandafewothergasesto1996,andofHCFCsto2030. InfurthermeetingsofthepartiestotheMontrealProtocol,inMontreal in1997andBeijingin1999,newamendmentseitheraddednewsubstancestothelist(nownearonehundredinall)orsettightertimelines forcompliance.Asof2003,alldevelopedcountrieshadalreadyphased outalmostallproductionofhalons,CFCs,carbontetrachloride,methyl chloroform,andafewotherminorgases.Asof2005theyhadphasedout methylbromide,andtheyhavepledgedtophaseoutalmostallHCFCsby 2020,withinterimtargetsalongtheway.Fortunatelyforthereduction effort,itwasthesewealthycountriesthathadproducedmostofthese nowproscribedgases.Underdevelopedcountriesarenowintheprocess ofphasingouttheproductionofCFCs,methylchloroform,andmethyl bromide,withascheduledreductionof70percentby2010andeliminationby2015(alldifficultgoals).ForHCFCs,whicharenowtheirmain substituteforCFCs,theyhaveuntil2040forfinalelimination. To a large extent, the frequently amended Montreal protocols are working.Becausethemoredevelopedcountrieshadcontributedupto
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90percentofozone-depletinggases,theireffortsaloneassuredthatthe concentrationofsuchgasesintheloweratmospherewoulddecline,asit hasratherdramaticallysincethemid-1990s.By2000thestratospheric concentrationofCFCshadstabilized,andby2005itwasbeginninga gradualdecline.Becauseofthelageffect,theactualbeginningrecovery oftheozonelayermaybetenoreventwentyyearsaway.Butmeasurements in 2003 revealed that the rate of ozone thinning in the upper stratospherehasbeguntoslow,suggestingthatinafewmoreyearsthe turnaround will occur. By present projections of the Ozone Secretariat oftheUnitedNations,stratosphericozoneshouldrecovertopre-1980 levelsbyaround2050. By2000,theMontrealProtocolhadalreadybecomethemostsuccessfulinternationalenvironmentaleffortinhistory.Ithasledtoareductionofaround87percentoftheproductionofallozone-depletinggases. Accordingtothe“whatif”estimatesoftheOzoneSecretariat,without theMontrealProtocolthestratosphericozonewouldhavedeclinedto50 percentofpre-1980levelsinnorthernmid-latitudes,70percentinsouthern,by2050.Bythen,thelevelofozone-depletingchemicalsintheatmospherewouldhaverisenbyfivetimes.Accordingtoitschallengeable estimate,thenumberofmelanomacancerswouldhaveincreasedby1.5 millionannually,andeyecataractsby150million.Notethatthepeople mostaffectedbyincreasedultravioletradiationarelightskinned,andthat thelargesteffectisinthehigherlatitudes.Buttheimpactofozonethinninginvolvesmuchmorethanhumans,sinceallsurfacelifedependson theozonebarrier. Butthevictoryisnotyetwon.Itdependsonfullcompliancewiththe MontrealProtocol(inanygivenyear,abouttwentycountriesadmitsome degreeofnoncompliance).Inboth2003and2004,theBushAdministrationaskedUnitedNationstreatyadministratorsforlargeexemptions fromthe2005banonfurtherproductionofmethylbromide.Thesize oftherequestedexemption(23milliontonsin2005)exceededthetotal ofallexemptionsrequestedbyothercountries.TheBushAdministration actedinbehalfoffarmers,foodprocessors,andevengolfcourseowners. Thesegroupsusemethylbromidetosterilizesoil,vegetablesandfruit, andevenmeat.Thisexemptionwouldsetadangerousprecedent.Since the most important ozone-depleting gases remain in the atmosphere from50to115years,thequantityofthesegasesinthestratosphereis onlynownearinganall-timepeak.TheozonethinningoverAntarctica
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reachedarecordlevelin2000,andtheozoneovertheArctichasdeclined insomeyearsbyupto30percent.PlentyofCFCsarestillinuseinrefrigeration,anddespiterigidrulesforrecapturingandrecyclingthem, somewillcontinuetoescapeintotheatmosphere.Theleadingbromine compoundsarestillgrowinginuse.Evendevelopedcountriesstillhavea righttousesmallquantitiesofCFCsinmedicalinhalers,andtoproduce andsellCFCstounderdevelopedcountriesuntil2015.Thus,evenCFCs willstayaroundagoodwhile.Itisalsoimportanttonotethatthebest replacement refrigerants, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), are among the mostpowerfulgreenhousegases.EvenastheMontrealpartieswereurgingtheiruse,thoseinvolvedinglobalclimatecontroleffortsweretrying toendtheiruse.Inpoorcountries,thecostofCFCreplacementmaybe almostprohibitive.OnedilemmainvolvesAmericanandEuropeancompanieswhichwillsell,ataprice,newgasestounderdevelopedcountries, butwillnotsurrendertheircorporatesecrets.6 Finally,thereductionofozone-depletinggasesmaynotreversethe thinning of the ozone layer as much as predicted because of several feedbackmechanisms.Therecentriseinglobaltemperatures,however explained, has helped increase heat absorption in the troposphere and cooledthelowerstratosphere.Thiscoolingwillreducethenormalcreationofstratosphericozone,andthusretardtherecoveryoftheozone layer. But possibly compensating for this will be other effects, such as lesswarmingasproductionofCFCsandothergreenhousehalocarbons decline.Anyincreaseoftroposphericozone(airpollution),whichalso screensoutultravioletradiation,willatleastinpartnegatetheimpactof lessstratosphericozoneonultravioletradiationattheearth’ssurface.But pollutioncontrols,ifeffective,willreducetroposphericozoneandthus reduceozonescreening.Tofurtherillustratethecomplexity,arestoration oftheozonelayertopre-1980levelswillincreasewarming,butprobably notasmuchastheeliminationofCFCswillhelpcoolit.Ifthepresent decline in the strength of the earth’s major magnetic field continues, ormovestoareversalofpoles,thiswillcreateextranitrogenoxides(a productofunscreenedprotonsinthesolarwind)thatwillactascatalysts to ozone recombination, and thus could lead to major declines in the ozonelayer.Nooneatpresentcanpredictexactlyhowalltheseinteractionswillaffectfutureozonelevelsortheamountofultravioletradiation atthesurface. Theozonelayermakesclearthedifficultyofpredictingtheeffectof
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new chemicals. Most chlorine compounds are very dangerous to humans.Twofamiliesofcompounds,dioxins(chlorinateddibenzodioxins) andPCBs(polychlorinatedbipheyls),havealreadyproventhis.ButCFCs seemedtobetheexception,usefulandbenigngases.Ittookahalfcenturytofindoutotherwise.Anynumberofnewchemicalsthatnowseem innocuousorevenbeneficialmayturnouttobeverydangerous,inways wecannotatpresentpredict.ThinkalsoofDDT.Whentheyareclearly dangerous,theyareatthatpointpollutants.Manygreenhousegasesseem notonlyinnocuous,butareevennecessitiesforlifeitself,yetatpresent, intoolargeamounts,theyposesuchathreattoclimatechangethatthey areonthewaytobecomingcriticalpollutants.
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ot all of the harmful effects of human activity involve pollution. Equallycriticalarethethreatsthathumansposetothewelfareor evensurvivalofotherspeciesinwhatisnowaperiodofrapidextinctions.These include habitat loss, the spread of destructive alien speciesintonewhabitats,andthedeliberatekillingofnonhumanspecies. Theseandotherchallengesconstitutewhatmostnaturalistsviewasa majorextinctioncrisis. The earth supports an enormous variety of organisms. How many speciesareonearthtodayisbeyondanymeasurement.About1.75million are described species, although the exact boundaries among species,subspecies,andvarietiesarenotalwaysclear.Humanshaveprobably observed,althoughnotalwaysclassified,about2.5millionspecies.Beyond that, the guesses vary widely.The United Nations Environmental Programme,inwhatamountstoameanamongalltheguesses,usually estimatesatotalof14millionspecies.Somescientiststhinkthenumber ofinsectspeciesaloneiscloseto30million,andsomeestimatesofthe totalnumberofspeciesareashighas100million(somepeopleinclude virusesamongthetotal,whileothersdonot,sinceaviruscannotreproduceexceptinahostcell).Thetotalnumberofspeciesshiftsannually, assomebecomeextinct,andasenoughmutationsbegintoaccumulate insomepopulationsaseventuallytojustifytheidentificationofanew species.Throughouttheearth’shistory,mostofthespeciesthateverlived arenowextinct.Theprofileoflifeiseverchanging,andinwhatseem tohavebeenfivecatastrophicperiodsinthepast,overhalfofallspecies thenlivingbecameextinctinrelativelybriefperiodsoftime.Suchmass extinctions were followed by periods of rapid evolutionary change, as 131
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mutations,mostnormallyeitherofnoimportorharmfultoindividual organisms,nowweremoreoftenfavorable,allowingluckyorganismsto adapttounoccupiedenvironmentalniches.
THEPRESENTEXTINCTIONCRISIS Theearthisnowinanewperiodofmassiveextinctions.Wesimplydonot knowenoughdetailsaboutpastextinctionepisodestomakequantitative comparisons,butitispossiblethatinthiscenturythenumberofextinctionswillexceedthatinanypastcentury.Theoneall-importantnecessary conditionformostpresentextinctionsisquiteclear—theimpactofhumans.Neverbeforehasonespeciessodominatedtheearth,orsoaffected itssurfaceandatmosphere.Inthepast,mosthuman-causedextinctions involvedhumanpredation.Notsotoday.Humansaresonumerous,use upsomanyresources,takeupsomuchspace,producesomuchpollutantsorwaste,andcontributetosuchmajorchangesinclimatethatmore andmorespecieswillnothaveasafeplacetolive.Humanshavetaken awaytheirlifesupportandhavesopollutedtheair,land,andwaterthat theyarenolongersafe.Almostequallydamagingisthatmobilehumans have introduced alien or invasive species in every corner of the earth, with often disastrous results in the host environment.As in past shifts intheclimate,thewarmingnowunderway,ifitcontinues,willinitself doommanyspecies,particularlythosethatcansurvivewithinonlyanarrowrangeoftemperaturesandcannotmigratefastenoughtokeepup withtemperaturechanges.Therelativelyslowpaceofextinctions,over thelasttenthousandyears,isinlargepartexplainedbyanunusuallylong periodofclimatestability. Howrapidisthepresentlossofspecies?Nooneknows,orcanknow withcertainty.Themostimportantlossmaybeamongmicroorganisms, includingbacteriaandprotozoa.Mostoftheseareprobablynotyetidentified,withmanyintheoceans,whicharenowvulnerabletopollution andwarming.Soareothermarineorganisms,includingcoral,whichhas createdenormouslybio-productivereefs,aboutone-fourthofwhichare alreadydestroyedandmostoftheothersendangered.Unfortunately,the largestproportionofspeciesindangerarewellbelowthelevelofpublic awareness and concern, which largely involves vertebrate animals and vascularplants.Theseareatinypartoflifeasawhole.Ifoneuses14millionasagoodguess,thenallmammalscombined(wedohaveareason-
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ablycompleteinventoryofthese)makeuplessthan0.002percentofall species,allbirdsonly0.004percent,andvascularplantslessthan0.02 percent.Amongidentifiedspecies,almost60percentareinsects,buteveryoneassumesthatwehavenotbeguntoidentifyallmicroorganisms. Bacteria might well rival insects in numbers of species, since bacteria lurkunidentifiedinsoil,deepinrocks,andatthebottomofoceans.In theUnitedStates,atthelevelofidentificationandconcern,thelargest numberofextinctorendangeredspeciesinvolveplants,insects,freshwaterfishes,and,inaspecialcategory,mussels,snails,andcrayfish,which areuniquelyfrequentandvariedinthestreamsoftheUnitedStates.We leadtheworldinendemicspecies(thosepresentnowhereelse)ofthese invertebrates. Extinctionisanormalpartofnature.Mostorganismsarehighlyspecialized,fortheyfitasmallandoftenlocalizedniche.Iftheenvironment shifts,manyformerlywell-adaptedspeciesarehelplessanddieoff.The environmentalshiftmayinvolveclimate(aperiodofwarmingorcooling,ashiftinprecipitation),arareweatherevent(afloodorextended drought),apopulationsurgeamongkeypredators,orsuchcatastrophic eventsasahugevolcanicexplosionoranasteroidcollision.Thedieoff ofatleastseventylargemammals(includingthehairymammoth,giant sloth, saber-toothed tiger, and horse) in NorthAmerica at the end of theWisconsinglacier(after11,500yearsago)mayhaveinvolvedboth climatechangeandhumanpredation.Mostpresentextinctionsinvolve eitherhabitatlossorcompetitionfrominvasivespecies.Moreoftenthan not,itishumanswhohavetakenoverortransformedahabitat(suchas bydeforestinglandorpollutingstreams)orintroducedexoticspecies. InthewholehistoryoftheUnitedStates,themostdamagingalienspecieshasbeentheimportedchestnutblight(afungus),whichhaskilled allbutafewAmericanchestnuttrees,inmostrespectsthemostvaluable ofalleasternhardwoods(valuablenotonlytohumansbuttonumerous wildlife). TheAmericanchestnutrepresentsthepresentAmericansituation— veryfewextinctspeciesbuthundredsofthreatenedones.Thechestnut hassurvivedinareasoftransplantedtreeshundredsofmilesfromthe movingedgeofthespreadingblight.Afewsproutsstillsurvivebrieflyin itsformerrange.Plantbreedersareclosetoablight-resistantstrain,butit wouldtakecenturiesforthechestnuttoregainitsearlierpreeminencein Americanwoodlands.Becauseofawareness,andprotectivepolicies,rela-
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tivelyfewextinctionswilloccurinthenearfutureinaffluentcountries amongplantsandvertebrates.Eveninpoorcountries,withfewresources to protect threatened species, outside aid may help preserve at least a smallpopulationofthreatenedmammalsandbirds.Afewwillsurvive onlyinzoosorisolatedpreserves.Theywillthenbevisiblesouvenirsof whathasbeenlostinthewayofeffectivebiodiversity.Onemightargue thatwhatisimportantisnotbaresurvival,butintegratedpopulationsin ecoregions,howeveronedefinesthese.Butlowerinthechainoflife,and inthetropics,thepaceofextinctionwillundoubtedlyaccelerate,often amongasyetunidentifiedspeciesandamongthosethatelicitlittlehumanconcern.Thiswillhappen,iffornootherreason,becausetherewill notbeenoughlivingspaceforallspeciesnowonearth. Whyworryaboutextinctions?Thisisanimportantquestion,andan exceedinglycomplexone.Ifone’smoralconcernsembracethewelfareof otherspecies,andinvolveacommitmenttotherightofalllifetosurvive andflourish,thenonewillreacttothehuman-causeddeathofallthe individualsthatmakeupaspeciesmuchasonedoestohumangenocide. Somethingprecious,somethingofinherentvalue,hasbeenlost.Thisis true even if the loss poses no material threat to humans, or in some cases might even improve human existence (disease pathogens, disease-carrying mosquitos or rodents).The implication of such solicitude for all life mightseemtoleadtoareluctancetotakeanylifeatall.Butallanimal lifedependsonplants.Thus,thelogicofthepositionwouldhavetobe thathumansharvestplants,andpossiblyalsoanimals,butselectively,in suchawayastopreservetheintegrityofthespecies.Someextinctions would still occur, but humans would not be guilty of eliminating any formoflife. Mostargumentsforpreservinglife-formsinvolveestheticlossorhumanmaterialneeds.Estheticlossisapowerfulbutalmostalwaysselective motivator.WhenmostAmericansthinkofextinctions,theythinkofmagnificentSiberiantigersorivory-billedwoodpeckers.Theyrecall,witha sense of loss, the passenger pigeon and Carolina parakeet, and rejoice atthelastminuterecoveryoftheAmericanbisonorofthebaldeagle. Theyhopeagainsthopethat,someday,wewillfindasurvivingpairof Bachman’swarblersorthatthehighlyprobablesightingofamaleivorybillinArkansasin2005meansthatbreedingpairshavesurvived.Ourexperienceisdiminishedbythelossofsuchspecies.Butnotsoforinvisible microscopiclife,formostinsectsexceptbutterflies,andformostmussels
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andsnails(presentlythemostthreatenedintheUnitedStates).Human concern for these less visible species almost always involves utility, or whattheycontribute,directlyorindirectly,tohumanwelfare.Whatdoes it matter if fifteen endemic mussels in the Clinch River in Southwest Virginiadieoff?Whodoesithurt?Whatpossible,vitalroledotheyserve fortheriverorevenawiderecologicalcommunity?Whatwouldbelost ifthelastfewFloridapanthersdie?Theyaremerelyasubspeciesofacat widelydistributedthroughouttheAmericas,andpresentlydoingwellin muchofthewesternUnitedStates(therecalledmountainlion,andelsewhereeitherpumaorcougar).InthepasttheFloridapantherpossibly wasamajorpredatorofdeerorotherwildlife,andthushelpedmaintain abalancedandsustainableecology.Butintheirremnant,carefullymonitoredandprotectedstatus,theynolongerservesuchalargerrole.For manypeopletheyhaveestheticvalue.Butinwhatsensedotheyhaveany otherutility?Noonereallyknows,butinalllikelihoodnoneatall. In many cases, the survival of one species depends upon the survivalofothers.Ifthepollen-bearingplantsthatprovidetheonlyfoodfor specializedinsectsdieoff,sodotheinsects.Inthesamesense,without pollinatinginsectssomeplantswillbeunabletoreproduce.Withoutspecificbirds,manyspeciesofinsectswillsoarinnumbers.Thelinkagesare oftensocomplexthatitisalmostimpossibletopredicttheeffectofany extinction.Itisalsoalmostimpossibletoidentifycriticalspeciesinan ecosystem,orthosewhosesurvivalisvitaltothehealthofthewhole. FortheUnitedStates,Hawaiiisbyfarthemostspectacularandunique ecosystem.Farfromanyotherland,theHawaiianIslandsareofrelatively recentvolcanicorigin,andbeforehumancontacthalfoftheirland-based floraandfaunawasendemictotheislands(overeightthousandendemic species).ThesameistruefortheGalapagosIslands,offEcuador,butthey haveamorerestrictedarrayoforganisms.Ineachcase,humanchanges inlanduseandtheintroductionofalienspecieshavebeendevastating for most endemics. In Hawaii, beginning with the original Polynesian settlers,endemicspecieshavemovedtoorclosetoextinctioninlarge numbers. Of Hawaii’s fifty-two endemic birds at the time of the first Europeancontact(thePolynesianshadcontributedtouptosixtyextinctionsalready),eighteenareextinct,oneprobablyextinct,andmostothersimperiled.FortherestoftheUnitedStates,onlythreebirdsareclearly extinct,andoneprobablyso.1 Thenanotherquestion:whatdoesitmatterthathumanpopulations
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haveintroducedanewarrayofspecies,andslowlykilledoffthenatives? Onceagain,onemaylovethediversity,orcherishthebeautyofnative species, or value their scientific revelations, but is there any economic loss?Ifso,what,andtowhom?Whynotimportthefloraandfaunathat workedsowellbackhome?TouseaprominentAmericanexample,are streamsworseoffbecausetheintroducedeasternrainbowtrout,inmost ofthecountry,hasreplacednativetrout?Onceagain,noonecanoffer aconfidentanswer.Heretheissueisnotjustalossoforganicdiversity, buthowmuchcansubstitutionsfulfillthesamefunctionalroleaslost orthreatenednativespecies.Forexample,forestsarecritical,asphotosynthesizers,ascarbonsinks,asmodifiersofclimate,butvariousmixes of tree species may serve these same critical roles.Yet, at a finer level, specifictreeshaveirreplaceablerolesinnourishingvariousformsoflife thatdependontheirflowersandfruit,evenastreesdifferimmenselyin thequalityoftimbertheyprovideforhumanuse. Themostvisibleandvaluedformsoflife,fromthehumanperspective,areoftennotthemostcriticalcomponentsofanecologicalcommunity.Muchmoreimportantmaybethemultipleandoftenrarelynoted organisms,frominsects,worms,andfungitobacteriathatlurkinsoil, water,lagoons,anddecayingvegetationandflesh.Andatthislevel,the main problem is not so much extinction, although this occurs, but a thinningofpopulationsortheireliminationfromsomelocations.Inthe oceans,itisdoubtfulifmanyspeciesofcyanobacteriaorphytoplankton willbecomeextinct,butaseverereductioninnumberscouldsolower thetotaloutputofphotosynthesisastodramaticallyraiselevelsofatmosphericcarbondioxideand,overalongerperiodoftime,significantly lower the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere. Both pose dangers to animallife,andthustohumanlife.Inthelasttwodecades,arapidwarmingoftheatmosphereandaverygradualwarmingofsurfaceoceanwatershavealreadythreatenedmanymarineorganismsthatthriveonthe nutrientsincoolerwater. Concernoverdecliningpopulationsofwildlifeorfishprobablypredateshumancivilization.Wordslikebiodiversityandecosystemarenew, butnottheproblemsthatledtotheiruse.Whatisnewisthenatureof thehumanthreat.Withthe“invention”ofagriculture,humansradically changedthelocalhabitatsforcertainformsoflife,butuntilthemodernerathisrarelycausedanyextinctionsbecauseofthelowpopulation densityandtheamountofforestedlandthatremained.Thus,formost
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ofhumanhistorythethreatofhuman-causedextinctionsornearextinctionsusuallyinvolvedoverhuntingoroverfishing,withlittleawareness ofwhatwasatstakeuntilitwastoolate.Peoplekilledanimalsforfood, forbonesneededastools,forfur,andjustforfun.Evenaslateasthe nineteenthcentury,inbothEuropeandAmerica,millionsofpeople,if theyhadtheopportunity,killedalmostalltypesofwildlifeatabandon, includingsongbirds.Today,exceptforafewlargemammalsinAfricaand Asia,huntingisrarelyathreattospeciessurvival,andinmanycasesit hasbeenhunterswhohaveworkedtoprotectorexpandwildlifepopulations.Theyhaveboughtintotheideaofsustainableharvest.Inthecase offish,whichprovideaprimaryfoodsourceformillionsofpeople,the storyisdifferent.Overfishingremainsamajorproblemworldwide.Humanpredationandpollutionarethemajorthreatstooceanfishpopulations,withlivingspacelesssignificant.
INTERNATIONALEFFORTSTOPRESERVEBIODIVERSITY Protectingendangeredspeciesisnowaninternationalcrusade.Inthiseffort,unlikeforglobalwarming,theUnitedStateshastakenaleadership role.Thestoryisalsoverycomplex.ComparedtotheUnitedStatesand westernEurope,thethreatofextinctions,ifnottoecologicalbalance,is muchgreaterintropicalcountriesandpoorcountries.Becauseofoften verycostlyprotectivestrategies,fewspeciesidentifiedasbeingindanger ofextinctionwillactuallybecomeextinctinwealthycountries,and,asin theUnitedStates,somespeciesatthebrinkofextinctionwillbehelped to recover.This is not true of poor countries, most in the species-rich tropics. Thelargestpublic-privateinternationalorganizationdevotedtobiodiversityistheInternationalUnionforConservationofNatureandNaturalResources(IUCN),orwhatmostrefertoastheWorldConservation Union.Ithascompiledandmaintainsthemostcompletelistofendangeredspeciesfortheworldasawhole,ortheRedBookofThreatenedSpecies. Table1recordstheRedBooklistofthreatenedspeciesupto2006.For somegroups,suchasinsects,thislistcannotbeevenclosetothelikely total.Also,itdoesnotcontainmicroorganisms. Post–WorldWarIIinternationaleffortstoprotectbiodiversitybegan in1946withthedraftingandsigningoftheInternationalConvention fortheRegulationofWhaling.Afterenoughratifications,thiswentinto
Table1.The2006IUCNRedListofThreatenedSpecies,summarystatistics.(IUCN.) Number of Number Number of described of species threatened species evaluated in species in 2006 1996/98
Number of threatened species in 2000
Number of threatened species in 2002
Number of threatened species in 2003
Number of threatened species in 2004
Number of threatened species in 2006
Number threatened in 2006, as % species described
VERTEBRATES Mammals
5,416
4,856
1,096
1,130
1,137
1,130
1,101
1,093
23%
Birds
9,934
9,934
1,107
1,183
1,192
1,194
1,213
1,206
12%
Reptiles
8,240
664
253
296
293
293
304
341
51%
Amphibians
5,918
5,918
124
146
157
157
1,770
1,811
31%
Fishes
29,300
2,914
734
752
742
750
800
1,173
40%
58,808
24,284
3,314
3,507
3,521
3,524
5,188
5,624
23%
Insects
950,000
1,192
537
555
557
553
559
623
52%
Molluscs
70,000
2,163
920
938
939
967
974
975
45%
Crustaceans
40,000
537
407
408
409
409
429
459
85%
Others
130,200
86
27
27
27
30
30
44
51%
1,190,200
3,978
1,891
1,928
1,932
1,959
1,992
2,101
53%
Subtotal INVERTEBRATES
Subtotal
Table1.(continued) Number Number of Number of described of species threatened species evaluated in species in 2006 1996/98
Number of threatened species in 2000
Number of threatened species in 2002
Number of threatened species in 2003
Number of threatened species in 2004
Number of threatened species in 2006
Number threatened in 2006, as % species described
PLANTS Mosses
15,000
93
—
80
80
80
80
80
86%
Ferns and allies
13,025
212
—
—-
—
111
140
139
66%
Gymnosperms
980
908
142
141
142
304
305
306
34%
Dicotyledons
199,350
9,538
4,929
5,099
5,202
5,768
7,025
7,086
74%
Monocotyledons
59,300
1,150
257
291
290
511
771
779
68%
287,655
11,901
5,328
5,611
5,714
6,774
8,321
8,390
70%
Lichens
10,000
2
—
—
—
2
2
2
100%
Mushrooms
16,000
1
—
—
—
—
—
1
100%
26,000
3
—
—
—
2
2
3
100%
1,562,663
40,168
10,533
11,046
11,167
12,259
15,503
16,118
40%
Subtotal OTHERS
Subtotal TOTAL
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effectin1948,butitdidnotstopwhalingfortwodecades.Itdidpromiseprotectionwhengivenspeciesbecameendangered.Becauseofbuildinginternationalconcern,itfinallygainedanear-completemoratorium oncommercialwhalingin1986.Toalargeextent,thisefforttoprotect ourlargestmammalshasworked,sincemostwhalepopulationshavestabilizedandbegunincreasing.Bythetimeofthemoratorium,thelargest ofallmammals,thebluewhale,wasveryclosetoextinction,anditisstill threatened.Afewnations,suchasJapanandIceland,havefoundwaysto circumventthebanoncommercialwhaling,butasyetnottosuchan extentastothreatenanyspecies. TheIUCNbeganin1948.Itis,officially,aprivateorganizationwith itsheadquartersinSwitzerland.Itisfundedbyassessmentsofitsmembers,whichincludegovernments,governmentaldepartments,divisions oftheUnitedNations,mostmajornongovernmentalenvironmentalorganizations,andevencorporations.In2003ithad980members,andan annualbudgetofabout$70million.Itstwocentralconcernstodayare tryingtodealwiththeextinctioncrisisand,closelyrelated,maintainingtheintegrityofecosystems.Itdoesnothavethefundstoundertake majorprojectsonitsown,butworksclosely,inafacilitativeway,with local or regional organizations, and in this sense depends very much onvoluntarylabor.Morethanmostenvironmentalorganizations,itemphasizestheeconomicbenefitsofbiodiversity(food,lumber,traditional medicines,geneticresources)andseekstheactivesupportofmultinationalcorporations.BecauseofitsRedListofthreatenedspecies,andan Internet-basedandcontinuouslyupdatedbodyofinformationaboutspecies,itprovidesaninvaluableservicetogovernmentsandprivateenvironmentalorganizations.Ithasfacilitated,andattimescooperatedwith, severalUnitedNationsenvironmentalorganizations,andhassponsored twowidelypublicizedWorldConservationCongresses,thelastin2000 inAmman,Jordan.2 The most important of official organizations is the United Nations EnvironmentalProgramme(UNEP).UNEPwasaproductoftheStockholmConferenceontheHumanEnvironmentin1972.Thisconference isnowcorrectlyrecognizedasalandmarkinmodernenvironmentalism, unrivaledinsignificanceuntilthe1992EarthSummitinRio.Itcameat apropitiousmoment,orwhatturnedouttobethehightideofcontemporaryenvironmentalism.Inthesameyear,theClubofRomepublished itscontroversialbook,TheLimitsofGrowth.Itfollowedbytwoyearsthefirst
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EarthDayintheUnitedStates,andalsothemostcomprehensiveenvironmentalbilleverenactedintheUnitedStates,theNationalEnvironmental PolicyAct(seechapter9). UNEP is an umbrella division of the United Nations. Several conventions involved with environmental issues are under its jurisdiction. Thisincludesthoseinvolvedwithglobalwarming,whereitsimpacthas beengreatest.Ithascoordinatedvariousenvironmentalprograms,and has made sustainable development one of its priorities. In the area of biodiversity,ithassponsoredtwoconventions,asofarsomewhatlimited Convention on Biodiversity and the critically important and successfulConventiononInternationalTradeinEndangeredSpeciesofWild FaunaandFlora(usuallyreferredtoasCITES).UNEPhascompiledand publishedwhatare,asof2006,threemajorreportsontheworld’senvironment,theGlobalEnvironmentalOutlook(GEO).Thelast,in2002,isthe most comprehensive survey available, and has informed much of the contentofthisbook.Inmanyways,the2002GEOisthemostpessimistic of the three.Almost all trends, beginning with population growth, unprecedentedresourceuseandconsumptioninthedevelopedworld, andawideninggulfofwealthandincomebetweenwealthyandpoor countries,hascreatedalmostirresistiblepressuresontheenvironment. Ifanyonewantstoprobethedepthsofpessimism,thenreadtheGEO evaluationofenvironmentalconditionsinAfrica.3 ThemostrecentmajorinternationalefforttoprotectbiodiversitybeganwiththeEarthSummitinRioin1992.Atthattime,157countries signedanewConvention(anameusedformostUnitedNationsenvironmentalinitiatives)onBiologicalDiversity(CBD).Subsequenttothisorganizationalmeeting,afewothercountries,includingtheUnitedStates, signedtheconvention.Butitwentintoeffectonlyafterthirtycountries hadratifiedtheconvention.In2003,atotalof187nationshadratified andbecomepartiestotheconvention.Amonglargecountries,theUnited Statesalonewasconspicuouslyabsent,andsofaritstillhasnotratified theCBD.Atpresentthereislittlechancethatitwill,forreasonsthatwill becomeclearinthefollowingdiscussion.Insomerespectsthisisironic, fortheCBDisinmanywaysanendangeredspeciesactforthewhole earth,anditsoriginalchartercontainsmuchlanguagefromtheEndangeredSpeciesAct(ESA)of1973andtheNationalEnvironmentalPolicy Actof1970,includingaprovisionthatallpartiestotheconventionmust requiresometypeofenvironmentalimpactstatements.4
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Theoriginalconvention,inoftenverygeneralorevenabitmuddy language, committed the nations of the world to various strategies to protectbiologicaldiversityand,ofcourse,tothesustaineduseofbiological resources. In this purpose it parallels that of most nongovernmental environmental organizations and theAmerican ESA. But from the beginning it has had a second agenda, one at times only loosely related to biodiversity—to provide binding rules for the diffusion of geneticallyalteredorganisms.TheCBDhassponsoredresearchonbiologicaldiversity,locatedenvironmentalhotspotsaroundtheworld,and encouragedmembernationstoenactlegislationandestablishrefugesto protectendangeredspecies.Butallofitsearlyadvocacystoppedshortof anybindingandenforceablerules.Theoriginalconventionmadeclear that rule-making and rule-enforcing would be through protocols adoptedinsubsequentmeetingsofitsrulingbody,theConferenceofthe Parties(orCOPS,whichisatypeoflegislativebodymadeupofmember nations).5 The convention suggested only one area for future protocols—that ofgeneticallyalteredplantsandanimals.Andhereiswhereithashad enormousdifficulty,firstinmaturingaprotocolacceptabletoitsparties, and,subsequenttotheapprovalofsuchin2000,ingainingtherequired fiftyratificationsforittogointoeffect(itwentintoeffectinSeptember 2003).Clearly,thisProtocolonBiosafetywillbeamajorreasonforthe UnitedStatesnottoratifyeithertheconventionorthis,itsfirstprotocol. Ifearthatthecontroversiessurroundinggeneticallyalteredlife,orwhat theCBDcallslivingmodifiedorganisms(LMOs),willsodominatethe CBDinthenextfewyearsastodiminishitsroleinotherissuespossibly morecentraltobiodiversity. TheProtocolonBiosafetyisatleastcourageous,foritinvolvesavery sensitiveissuearoundtheworld.Italso,inanindirectsense,makesthe UnitedStatesatargetofsomeverytoughrules,fortheUnitedStateshas ledtheworldinintroducingnewgenestoalterplants,mostinbehalfof betterresistancetodiseases,cold,orinsects,orinbehalfofbetternutrition.Ithasalsoalteredanimals,mostlyforresearchortoproduceneeded medications.Butgeneticallyalteredfoods,particularlycorn,soybeans, andrice,havearousedfears,andattimesovertprotests,inmuchofthe world,includingwesternEuropeandeveninunderdevelopedcountries that,despiteadesperateneed,haveattimesrefusedfoodaidinvolving alteredcrops.Withlittleawareness,mostAmericanconsumershaveac-
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ceptedsuchfoodswithlittleprotest,andapparentlywithnoadverseeffects,althoughthisisacontrovertedissue. ThelanguageoftheProtocolonBiosafetyreflectssomeofthecontroversiesthatattendeditsmaturation.Itslanguageisoftendeliberatelyambiguous,andsofullofjargonastobealmostunreadable.Becauseofits charter,ithastokeyitsproposedrulestothepossiblethreatgenetically alteredorganismsposetobiodiversity,butitalwaysincludesareference toadverseeffectsonhumanhealthaswell.Itisnotveryclearwhatthe precisethreattodiversityis,unlessalteredvarietiesofcropsoranimals willleadtotheextinctionofexistingspecies(forexample,genetically alteredsalmonmightescapeintotheoceanandeventuallydisplacethe native salmon or spread unwanted diseases into the wild). One might suppose that genetic engineering would increase diversity, for in time somealterationscouldleadtonewspecies.Whattheprotocoldoesisset uprulesforthetransferofgeneticallyalteredorganismsacrossnational boundaries,particularlywhentheneworganismwillbereleasedintothe newenvironment.Itcarefullyqualifiestherulessoastoexemptcertain medications,and,inmostrespects,italsoexemptsfoodoranimalfeed forconsumptionsolongasitdoesnotentailthereleaseofthenewgenes intothehostenvironment.Buteveninthiscase,theexportingcountry, ifitratifiestheprotocol,willhavetoidentifythegeneticallyalteredfood orfeedandsolabeltheboxesusedtoshipit.Thus,importingcountries canmakeaninformeddecisionaboutbuyingtheproduct. The protocol places a major burden on exporting countries, even thosewhichdonotratifytheprotocol.Importingcountrieswhohave ratified are obligated to follow its rules for importing living modified organisms.Exportingcountrieshavetonotifyanyimportingcountryof productscontaininggeneticallyalteredcontent.Theimportingcountry canaccept,reject,oraskformoreinformation.Ifitwishes,itcanforce theexportingcountrytosubmittoascientificassessment,andpayfor it.Inanycase,ithasoverhalfayeartomakeadecision,andnodecision doesnotmeanthattheimporttakesplace(itispossibleforanimporting countrytousethisdevice,ineffect,asabarriertotradeorasasubstitute foratariff).Ifacountrywithsuchanalteredorganismunintentionally causesittoentertheinternationalmarket,itmustnotifyalltheparties totheconvention.Theprotocoldoesnotclarifyenforcementprocedures, includingpenaltiesortheliabilityofexporters,butleavesthistofuture COPS(thefirstmetinMalaysiainFebruary2004).Theprotocoldoeslist
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TheHumanThreat
the beneficial possibilities of biological engineering, and permits importingcountriesthathavenoconcernaboutaproducttoimportitimmediately,withoutthewaitingperiod.TheUnitedStates,joinedbyafew othermajorexportersofbiologicallymodifiedcrops(Argentina,Canada, Chile),ledtheoppositiontotheprotocol,andhassofarrefusedtosign, letaloneratify,thefinalproduct,ashaveAustraliaandBrazil. It is now clear that most countries will ratify the Protocol on Biosafety.Whatisunclearishowitwillbeimplemented,whethermember countrieswillprovidetheneededfunding,andwhetheritwillhaveany realeffectonworldtrade.Inalmosteverysensitiveareaoftheprotocol, thecriticaldecisionshavebeenlefttofutureCOPS.Amainsupportfor its effective implementation is a permanent Bio-Safety Clearing House to supervise trade in such organisms.At present, it is not much more thanaweb-baseddataclearinghouse.Fromthebeginningnegotiations, underdevelopedcountrieswerethemostavidsupportersofastrongprotocol,whichpromisedthemsomeprotectioninareaswheretheydidnot havethetechnicalexpertisetomakeinformeddecisionsaboutimports. The countries of the European Union generally supported the protocol,oftenrespondingtoverystrongpublicsentimentagainstgenetically modifiedcrops.Attimes,anti-Americansentimentsmayhaveinfluenced thisposture.Inthebackgroundofthelong,contentiousfighttomature theprotocolwasalargerworldwidedebateabouttheissueofmodified organisms,whichinturnwasoftenjoinedwithmassivedemonstrations againsttheWorldTradeOrganization,whichhadgenerallyresistedthe newprotocol.6 TheUnitedNationsConventiononInternationalTradeinEndangered Species(CITES)hasbeenmuchmoreinfluentialthantheCBD.Itsorigins reflect early advocacy by theWorld Conservation Union (IUCN). Inoneofitsconferencesin1960itadvocatedsometypeofcontrolover tradeinendangeredspecies.In1963theIUCNcalledforaninternational conventionortreatytocontrolsuchtrade.Itbegandevelopingdraftsin 1964,andpresentedaseconddrafttoaconferencein1971.Thiswasa propitioustime.AttheConferenceontheHumanEnvironmentin1972, eighty-eightnationsdiscussedadraftproposal.InMarch1973,ataconferenceinWashington,D.C.,thesecountriessignedthedraftconvention and,afterratificationbytherequiredtennations,itwentintoeffectin 1975.SoonthereaftertheUnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgrammeassumeddirectionofthisnewconvention,andtheEarthSummitatRioin
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1992gaveaddedendorsementtoCITES,whichnowincludesallbuta handfulofthenationsoftheworld.7 What CITES did was set up a demanding body of regulations governingalltradeinendangeredfaunaorflora,deadoralive,oranyparts derivedfromsuchanimalsandplants.Inmuchoftheunderdeveloped world, poaching and smuggling of endangered species was driven by internationaltrade.CITESplacedamajorresponsibilityonallcountries thatratifiedtheconvention,fortheyhadtodeveloppolicestoprotectthe ecosystemsthatsupportedendangeredspecies,andworktosomanage wildlifeastosupportsustainableincomesineachcountry.Eachratifyingcountryhadtoappointamanagingagencytoimplementthenew regulations.OnehalfofthepurposeoftheEndangeredSpeciesActinthe UnitedStatesin1973wastodesignatesuchamanagementagency,in thiscasetheFishandWildlifeService. Tocontroltradeinendangeredspecies,theconventionsetupthree listsofanimalsandplants,orwhatitdenominatedAppendicesI,II,and III.Byspecies,theyincludesubspecies,andinsomecasesregionallyendangered populations, and also in some cases list not just species but awholegenus.ForallspeciesinAppendixI,orthosemostclearlyendangered,theconventionineffectprohibitsalmostanytradeatall,and in the rare exceptions requires a permit from both the exporting and importing country. ForAppendix II, which involves threatened species thatmightsoonbecomeendangered,itmandatesexportbutnotimport permits.AppendixIIIhasbeenabitmoreconfusing.Itallowsmember nations to list locally endangered species, those that normally do not involveinternationaltrade,andasksothermemberstorespectandhelp such countries. Such countries require an export permit for trade, but importingcountrieshavenocleardutiesunderthisAppendix.Itisnot clearthatithashadmuchimpact.TropicalcountrieshavemostusedAppendixIII.OveronethousandspeciesarenowinAppendixI,withsome oftheseinvolvinggenusesandthusmultiplespecies.Uptofivethousand animalsandtwenty-fivethousandplantshavereceivedsomeprotection underallthreeAppendices.8 CITES works with a minimal budget of about $2.5 million a year, whichderivesfromassessmentspaidbymembercountries.Itismore likeatreatythananactionagency,sinceitplacestheresponsibilityfor enforcementonmembernations.Themembershavetosetverystiffpenalties for those who violate the trading rules.Among the exports that
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havemostinvolvedCITESarecoral,crocodileskins,caviar,ivory,black rhinoceroshorns,sturgeons,sharks,andseahorses.Theelephantwenton AppendixIIin1977,moveduptoAppendixIin1989,and,forsome nationswithgrowingpopulations,wentbacktoAppendixIIin1997and 2000.CITESliststheWhalingConventionasanassociatedcontrolmeasure.ListinginAppendixIandIIisbytheConferenceoftheParties,with nominations from member nations, which are required to document requestswithcarefulscientificdata.Forspecies,orparts,thatmovein internationaltradeunderAppendixII,CITEShasclearrulesformarking allshipments.Eachyear,bothexportingandimportingcountrieshaveto renderdetailedreportsonalltrade.CITESlikestoboastthat,sinceitsfirst listings,nospecieshasbecomeextinctbecauseofcommerce.
THEDEVELOPINGAMERICANCONCERNFORWILDLIFEPRESERVATION IntheUnitedStates,concernaboutdeforestation,wildlifedestruction, and even extinction developed in the early nineteenth century.Trained naturalistswere,bythen,beginningscientificstudiesoftheenvironment. But, so far as I know, the most emphatic denunciation of the human impactonwildlifecameinabookfirstpublishedin1864byGeorgeP. Marsh,athensixty-three-year-oldsonofVermont,atwo-timecongressman,afriendofJohnQuincyAdams,asupporteroftheearlySmithsonianInstitution,andinhislastcareerourfirstministertoItaly.Marshwas notatrainednaturalist,buthewasakeenobserverofthehumanimpact onthenaturalworld,withhislongyearsinItalyandhisobservations of the Mediterranean world supplementing his New England perspective.HisbookwasoriginallyentitledManandNature,buthecalledlater editions, including one published in Italy, The Earth as Modified by Human Action.Ithasbecomeadeservedclassicinenvironmentalstudies.Marsh anticipatedalmosteverythemeincontemporaryenvironmentalprotest, andcomposedwhatamountedtoaPuritan-typejeremiadabouthuman irresponsibility.Attimes,hewasapocalypticinhispredictions,oftenprescientinhisoftennecessarilyspeculativejudgments,but,asonewould expect, often wrong in his understanding and a bit too severe in his propheciesaboutthefuture. Althoughhedidnotusetheterm,Marshwasaneloquentadvocateof biodiversity.Hissinglegreatestconcernwasthedeforestationoccasioned byagriculture,andwithitchangesinclimateandevengeography.Hean-
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ticipatedJamesLovelock’sGaiatheoryinhisemphasisuponhowmuch both climate and geography were shaped by life, how the interaction ofvariousorganismsshapedwhatwewouldnowcallecosystems,and howhumans,bydisruptingthebalanceoflivingsystems,riskedfuture calamities,nottheleastbeingtheextinctionofmanyspecies.Hetried togaugethedegreetowhichdifferentordersoflifeshapeclimateand geologicalevolution(heeulogizedtreesandbirds,applaudedtheroleof reptilesandinsects),listedthehigherspeciesalreadyextinctinEurope becauseofhumanaction,and,mostoriginal,speculatedthatthegreatestroleofallmightbeperformedbymicroscopiclife.Inhiswords:“It ishighlyprobablethatthereef-buildersandotheryetunstudiedminute formsofvitalexistencehaveotherfunctionsintheeconomyofnature besidesaidinginthearchitectureoftheglobe,andstandinimportant relationsnotonlytomanbuttheplantsandthelargersentientcreatures overwhichhehasdominion.Thediminutionormultiplicationofthese unseenfriendsorfoesmaybeattendedwiththegravestconsequences toallhismaterialinterests,andheisdealingwithdangerousweapons whenheinterfereswitharrangementspre-establishedbyapowerhigher thanhisown.”9 Atthetimehewrote,Marshwasnotawareofanyspeciesthathad becomeextinctinAmerica,andonlyonesealoffitscoasts.Henotedthe flocksofpassengerpigeons,theherdsofbison,butdidnotyetanticipate theirextinctionornearextinction.Henotedthenearextirpationofthe beavertofeedtheneedsofEuropeanfashions,butsawitasrecovering whensilkhatsreplacedfurandfelt.Whathedeploredwasthereckless killingofbirdsandanimals,oftenfornohumanuse,andtheimbalances in nature these actions could cause, with unknown effects on human welfare.However,noneofthese,inhisview,wouldcomeclosetothe imbalancescreatedbymodernagricultureandtherecklessassaultonour forests.Yet,hereagain,heanticipatednoextinctionamongtrees,orother plants,butdidemphasizethedangers,aswellasattimestheusefulness, ofintroducedspecies. AconservationmovementbegantoaffectpolicyintheUnitedStates justaftertheCivilWar.Wildlifepreservationwasonegoalofthismovement.Fromthisconcerncameaseriesofactionsandlegislationthatled eventuallytotheEndangeredSpeciesActof1973,whichwas,andstillis, themostambitiouslegislativeefforttoprotectbiodiversityintheworld. By1900,andparticularlyafterWorldWarII,thisconcernledtointerna-
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tionaltreatiesorconventions.Toanextentnotproperlyappreciatedby mostpeople,theESAwasasmucharesponsetointernationalagreements astoconcernoverdomesticwildlifeprotection.Thestoryiscomplexin eachcase. ThefirstfederaleffortinAmericatoprotectfishandwildlifedates from1864,ortheyearthatMarshpublishedthefirsteditionofhisnowfamousbook.ThefederalgovernmenttransferredtheYosemiteValleyto theStateofCaliforniawithaprovisionthatthestatehadtoprotectits fishandgamefrom“wantondestruction.”Yosemite,largelythroughthe effortsofJohnMuir,wouldlaterbecomeanationalpark.In1872the federalgovernmentcreateditsfirstnationalpark,Yellowstone,largelyto protect its thermal features, but with the same proviso about fish and game.Onlyafter1894diditdomuchtoenforcetheseprovisions,but atleastasmallbisonherdbarelysurvivedinthepark(downto92in 1902)—one of the thin threads that saved the bison from extinction. This remains the only free-ranging herd in the United States. In 1908 thefederalgovernmentsetasideanationalbisonrangeinMontana,and in1912itstartedanationalelkrefuge(thefirstuseofthistermforany federallyprotectedland).Thefateofthebisonwasagreatspurtoconservationefforts.By1890,lessthanonethousandbisonhadsurvived, andwiththisawarenessthefateofwhatAmericansmistakenlyreferred toasa“buffalo”becameamuchpublicizednationalconcern.Itswanton slaughter,forsportasoftenasforprimebitsofitsmeat,andthepolicy ofkillingbisonasawayofstarvingplainsIndiansintoreservations,was anationalscandal. TheU.S.Congressbeganasystemofnationalforestsin1881(atfirst thismeantfederallyownedlandsetasideintheWest),andinthesame actitofferedsomeprotectionforfishinAlaska.In1871itcreatedafederaloffice,theCommissionerofFisheries.In1883,thenewAmerican Ornithologists’ Union began agitating for a model law to prevent the killingofendangeredbirds,andhelpedgainin1886aDivisionofEconomicOrnithologyandMammalogyintheDepartmentofAgriculture. Thesewere,atfirst,largelyfact-findingandadvocacydepartments,but theywerethegenesisofthelaterFishandWildlifeService(FWS).The needforregulationandprotectionofvariousspeciesofwildlifewassoon apparent,withmuchoftheearlyconcernbeingforwaterfowldevastated byoverhuntingandhabitatloss.Thegovernmentefforthadstrongsupportfromconservationorganizations,fromelitehuntingclubs,includ-
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ingtheBooneandCrockettClubsolovedbyTheodoreRoosevelt,and, for fish, the IzaakWalton League. Since all such early efforts had as a goal not the elimination of hunting and fishing, but a sustained supplyofgame,informedsportsmengladlysupportedconservation.Atthe sametime,farmersandranchersacceptedprotectionofvaluedbirdsand animals,sincealltheearlygovernmentalprotectionagencieshelpedlead the campaign to shoot or poison the “varmints,” such as the wolves, coyotes,prairiedogs,andhawksthatthreatenedsheep,cattle,chickens, andcrops. Ironically, women’s hats had a vital role inAmerican conservation. By1900,manyhatsfeaturedthefeathersofsuchspectacularbirdsasthe brownpelicanandthesnowyegret.Theplumetradedrovethesespecies towardextinction,arousingadeterminedmovementtosavethem.The modernAudubonSociety,formedbytheunionofstateAudubonsocietiesin1905,originatedineffortstosavethesespecies.InFlorida,thelocalbirdwatchingorAudubonsocietieswereabletogetstatelegislation to protect the egrets and other plumed birds.A sympathetic President TheodoreRoosevelt,in1903,placedthesmall,federallyownedPelican Island,offtheeasterncoastofFlorida,offlimitstofeatherhunters,who hadbroughtthebrownpelicanclosetoextinctioninFlorida.AnAudubonSocietyvolunteerbecamethefirstwildlifewarden,atasalaryofone dollarayear.ThusbegantheAmericanwildliferefugesystem. After1900,moststatesbeganregulatinghuntingandfishing,with licensefeestopayforgamewardenstoenforcerulesortosupportfish hatcheriesandthestockingofstreams.Inotherwords,inlandfisheries wereincreasinglymanaged.Asearlyas1872thefederalgovernmentcreatedthefirstfederalfishhatchery,andin1903itestablishedtheBureau ofFisheries,intheDepartmentofCommerce,sinceitwouldbeprimarilyconcernedwithcommercialfishing.Theearlyconcernswerealmost entirely limited to game fish valued by anglers, or birds and animals valued by hunters. Scarcity of game, not threatened extinction or ecologicalbalance,wastheprimaryissue,oraparalleltothesustainedyield ideathatguidedforestmanagement.But,obviously,somefishandmost waterfowl involved more than one state or even one nation, and thus requiredfederalcontrolsorinternationalagreements. Theodore Roosevelt, and subsequent presidents, continued to set aside small areas to protect vulnerable wildlife, but only by executive orders and with almost no funds for management. In 1913 the feder-
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al government federalized control over all migratory and insect-eating birds,andin1916itsignedatreatywithCanada(technicallywithBritain)fortheirprotection(theConventionfortheProtectionofMigratory Birds).In1918,CongressenactedtheMigratoryBirdTreatyActtomake domesticpoliciesconformtothisnewtreaty.In1924Congresspassed theUpperMississippiRiverWildlifeandFishRefugeAct.Itenactedthe Migratory Bird ConservationAct in 1929.This act authorized but did notdirectlyfundasystemofrefuges,mostintendedtoprotectmigrating waterfowl (geese and ducks) in the upper Midwest. (The funding wouldhavetocomefromindividualactsbyCongress.)In1934,under another conservation president, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Congress approved a permanent funding provision involving stamps charged for huntingprivileges,orwhatweresoonreferredtoasduckstamps.This allowedtheDepartmentoftheInteriortobuyneededhabitattoprotectwaterfowl(smalllakesandwetlands),orsoonamosaicofsmall refuges,manywithregulatedhunting.In1934,AldoLeopold,already anexpertinwildlifemanagement,andsoontobefamousasanearly andsensitiveecologist,servedonathree-membercommitteetostudy theplightofwaterbirdsduringthedustbowlyears.In1935Congress madetheBureauofBiologicalSurveyintheDepartmentofAgriculture responsibleforthegrowingrefugesystem,evenasitcontinuedtolead thewaragainstunwantedvarmints.Inamajorgovernmentalreorganizationin1939,RooseveltplacedboththebureauandtheCommerce Department’sBureauofFisheriesintheDepartmentoftheInterior,and thenextyearmergedthetwointothepresentFWS.Thisstillleftconservationagenciesindifferentdepartments—nationalforestsinAgriculture, commercialfisheriesinCommerce,andnationalparksandtheFWSin Interior. AfterWorldWarII,theFWSexpandedrapidly,andwithshiftingpriorities.Althoughmostrefugesstillinvolvedmigratoryducksandgeese, theconcernsoonembracedthreatenedspeciesofalltypes.In1966,a NationalWildlifeRefugeAdministrationActexpandedacquisitionsand mandatedrefugesforthreatenedspecies.In1965Congressenactedthe first,limitedEndangeredSpeciesAct.Itsmuchmoresweepingsuccessor, theESAof1973,specificallyauthorizedpurchasesforthesoleprotection ofendangeredspecies,andovertwenty-fivenewrefugeshavefulfilled thiscommitment.By1997anewactalsomandatedeffortstomaintain theintegrityofwholeecosystemsthatwerenecessarytoprotectoneor
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more threatened species.The mandate of the FWS has thus expanded aboutasfarasonecanimagine,butthefundstosupportsuchamandate haveusuallybeenalltooscarce.In2004,wildliferefugescontainedover 93millionacres,butwithoverhalfofthisinAlaska.10
THEENDANGEREDSPECIESACTOF1973 TheUnitedStateswasveryactiveingainingapprovalforCITES,andwith itssigninghadtodevelopamanagementagencytofulfillitsenforcement obligations.Thisalonemandatedlegislationinvolvingendangeredspeciesthatenteredinternationaltrade.Atthesametime,intheheydayof environmentalconcern,andbecauseoffearsfirststimulatedbyRachael Carson’sfamous1962book,SilentSpring,strongsupportexistedforbetter protectionofendangereddomesticspecies.Already,theFWShadthisas oneofitsmandatesunderthe1965act,andhaddevelopedalistofover ahundredendangeredspecies,butithadlimitedstatutoryauthorityto protectsuchspecies.TheseconcernsledtotheenactmentoftheEndangeredSpeciesActof1973.Theactrecognizedaseriesofinternational agreements,includingmigratorybirdtreatieswithCanada,Mexico,and Japan,andseveralfishingandwhalingagreements.Itsetupprocedures forenforcingAppendicesIandIIunderCITESandincludesallspeciesin thoseappendicesasextensionsofitsownlistofendangeredandthreatenedspecies.ItalsomandatesverylargefinesforanyviolationofCITES, withsomefinesfortradeinendangeredspeciesashighas$50,000. TheESAwasoneofthemostambitiousenvironmentalactseverenacted in the United States or anywhere else in the world. In fact, had Congressfullyrealizedwhatitwasdoing,thebillmightnothavepassed (thevoteforitwasalmostunanimous).Theactprovidedfortheprotectionofendangeredandthreatenedspeciesoffish,wildlife,andplants, becauseoftheiresthetic,ecological,educational,historical,recreational, or scientific value. Note that it does not mention economic values (it exemptedinsectpests).Theact,followingthelanguageofCITES,defined speciesbroadly,toencompasssubspecies(suchastheFloridapanther), andcriticalpopulations(thebaldeagle,forexample,wasnotendangered inAlaskaandpartsofCanada,butwasinthelowerforty-eight).TheFWS is primarily responsible for the development of lists and enforcement, butforcoastalspeciestheNationalMarineFisheriesService,abranchof theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationintheCommerce
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Department,hasenforcementresponsibility(sixty-fourspecieswereon itslistin2006).Theactmandatedthatallfederalagencieshadtoseek topreserveendangeredandthreatenedspecies.Inordertoconservethe ecosystems that supported endangered species, the FWS could acquire new refuges. In behalf of the FWS, the secretary of the Interior could issueregulationsneededtoprotectendangeredspeciesor,incooperationwiththestates,implementrecoveryplansforsuchspecies.Theact extendedtoallterritoriesoftheUnitedStates.11 When mostAmericans thought of endangered species, they probably thought of mammals and birds.And, indeed, in its first years of implementingtheEDA,theFWSdidconcentrateonthesemostvisible species.Butgraduallyitexpandedtothefullscopeofitsauthority,with plantstodaymostnumerousonitsprimarylistofendangeredspecies, andonitssomewhatshorterlistofthreatenedspecies(thosethatmight soon become endangered). Except for microscopic life, and life-forms atthelevelofroundwormsornematodes,theactisinclusive.Itapplied to all vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish), to allinvertebrates(clams,snails,insects,arachnids,andcrustaceans),and toallfloweringplants,includingfloweringtrees,plusconifers,cycads, ferns,andlichens.Itsregulationsprotectlistedspeciesfromanyhuman predation,butcanonlyfullyprotectthehabitatofsuchspeciesonpublic landsoronprivatelandsthathaveacceptedsomeformofconservation statuswithinindividualstates.Thisiswhy,attimes,theFWShastopurchaserefugestosaveendangeredspecies.Notethat,byfederallaw,all navigablestreamsarepublicproperty,andthecourtshavesointerpreted thewordnavigableastoincludeevensmallcreeks.Wildanimalsarealso consideredpublicproperty,butnotplants.Anyindividualcannominate aspeciesforprotectionunderthisact,andsupportthenominationwith crediblescientificdata.Butthefinaldecisiononacceptance,orremoval, isuptotheFWS,orofficiallythesecretaryoftheInterior.Anyexemptionstotheactrequiretheapprovalofaspecialcommitteemadeupof federalagencyanddepartmentheads.Thefulllistshavetobereviewed every five years. On June 7, 2006, the lists included 411 endangered animalsand155threatenedones.Oftheplantsonthelists,599were endangered,and146threatened.12Thelistisupdateddailyandpublished ontheInternet. NotethattheESAoffersprotectiononlyforanimalsandplantsonits lists.Thismeansthatitdoesnotprotectallendangeredspecies,however
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onedefinesthisstatus.Somethatseemtobeendangeredmaynothave been nominated for such status, or have not yet been accepted by the screeningcommittee.TheESAkeepsalistofspeciesthatarecandidates forprotectionbutwhichhavenotyetbeenvotedontoeitherofitslists. Beyondthesecandidatespecies,italsohasalistofnominatedspecies,or whatsomerefertoasspeciesofconcern.Withinitsareaofjurisdiction, andforitslists,theESAhasprovedaverytoughlaw,andunderittheFWS haspromulgatedandenforcedsomeofthemostfar-reachingadministrativelawinAmericanhistory.Nocountryhasbeenwillingtocommit moreresourcestosaveendangeredspeciesthantheUnitedStates,andso fartheefforthasbeenverysuccessful.Despiteanyactionbyanygovernment, a few listed species have such a fragile or restricted habitat that somenaturalcatastropheorclimatechangemayleadtoextinction.This primarilyinvolvessmallfreshwaterfishandmussels,orsomeHawaiian birdsandplants.Formigratorybirds,actionwithintheUnitedStatesmay beinadequate.Butconsistentwithwhatispossible,andattimesatgreat expense,theUnitedStateshascommitteditselftopreservemostofits officiallyrecognizedendangereddomesticspecies.Orsoithasseemedso far.ButnotethattheGeorgeW.BushAdministration,consistentwithits overallefforttolessentheburdenofenvironmentalregulationforprivate interests,proposedin2005amendmentstotheESAthatwouldrelaxthe levelofenforcementandrewardprivateownersforanylossofproperty valuesbecauseoftherequirementsoftheact.
PROSPECTSFORTHEFUTURE Speciesaremostthreatenedintropical,andlargelypoor,countries.Here populationpressure,destroyedhabitat,laxenforcementofenvironmentallaws,andshiftsinclimatearetakingahugetollalready.Inalmostall majorbiologicalgroups,orbiota,exceptfreshwaterfishandcrustaceans, thegreatestdiversityofanimalsandplantsareinthetropics,andparticularlyintropicalrainforests.Unfortunately,therapidcuttingofsuch forests,fortimberortogainnewagriculturalland,isprobablyleading totheextinctionofmanyinsectsandplantsnotevenyetidentifiedin scientificcircles.Here,onrareoccasions,scientistsfindanasyetunidentifiedmammalorbird.Itisforthesereasonsthatthegreatchallenge,in thenexthalfcentury,willbeidentifyingandsavingthreatenedspeciesin countriesillequippedtocarryouttherescueeffortforthemselves.
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EveninthewealthyUnitedStates,preservingthepresentextentof biodiversitywillbeamajorchallenge,particularlyifclimatechangebecomesanevermoresignificantthreatandourpopulationcontinuesto expand.Thepresentstatusofthreatenedspeciesisreasonablyclearfor the United States.The leading nongovernmental organization involved withbiodiversity,theNatureConservancy,haspublishedamajorbook on the subject, Precious Heritage:The Status of Biodiversity in the United States.13 Becauseofanationaldatacollectingeffort,mostlycarriedoutbyvolunteers,thisbookincludesthemostrecentevaluation,andbyfarthemost complete synthesis, onAmerican biodiversity, drawing from hundreds ofmorespecializedstudiesaswellasfromgovernmentrecordsandfield research.Iamlargelyindebtedtothisbookforthefollowingalltoobrief assessment. Asforsomanycontemporaryenvironmentalissues,theglassiseither half full or half empty on the issue of biodiversity. Environmentalists usuallyviewitashalfempty,becausetheyaresoawareofpresentand future threats, and so committed to arousing public support for conservation measures.They do not spend much time rejoicing in recent achievements,whichareconsiderable.FortheUnitedStates,thegreatest oftheseistheESAitself,andsofarthewillingnessoftheFWStoenforce it.Almostallpollsshowastrongpublicawarenessandconcernaboutendangeredspecies,orexactlytheoppositeofevenfiftyyearsago.Despite threatstoanimalsandplants,theUnitedStatesisstillaverylargecountry,withuptotwo-thirdsofitslandinforestsorrelativelyundisturbed grasslands.Privateforestacreageisexpandingannually,andareasunder reasonablysecureconservationcontrolsaregrowingeachyear.Withtwo possible exceptions—endemic Hawaiian birds and plants, and aquatic lifeinthefreshwaterstreamsofsouthernAppalachia—thepaceofextinctionhasslowedinrecentyears,inlargepartbecauseofpublicand privateconcernandaction.Comparedtomostoftheworld,theUnited Statesisinanenviablepositionontheissueofspeciespreservation. Butthepreservationofendangeredspecieshascosts,andsomehave hadtobearmoreofthesethanothers.Initsfirsthighlypublicizedcase, theFWSalmostblockedaTVAdamtoprotectasmallfish,thesnaildarter. Congressintervenedtoexemptthisfish,andfortunatelyotherpopulationsweresoondiscovered.IntheNorthwest,theeffortstoprotectthe habitatofthenorthernspottedowlledtoyearsofcontroversyandatense compromisebetweenenvironmentalistsandtimberinterestsbrokeredby
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PresidentBillClinton.Lesscontroversialhavebeenother,sometimesvery expensiveeffortstosavespeciesonthebrinkofextinction,mostnotably thewhoopingcrane,theCaliforniacondor,andthered-cockadedwoodpecker,whosefateistiedtothesurvivalofthemajesticsouthernlongleaf pine.Thistreereproducesonlyafterfires,andthushasvirtuallydisappearedexceptinafewprotectedareas,someonmilitarybases. The United States, because of size and diversity of geography and climate, has the most diverse flora and fauna of any largely temperate zonenation.Itcontainsaround250,000identifiedspecies(outofabout 1.75 million worldwide), though its share pales in comparison to the plentitudeoflifeintropicalclimates.BecauseofHawaiiandAlaska,the UnitedStateshasspeciesrepresentingtwelveofthegenerallyrecognized fourteenbiomes,ormorethananyothercountry.Twoofthesereflect thelargeareaoftundrainAlaskaandasmallareaoftropicalrainforest in Hawaii (because of its recent origin and isolation, this forest has a wealthofendemicspeciesbutnotnearlythediversityoflifepresentin continentalrainforests).TheU.S.diversityismeasuredbyitsproportion ofworldspecies:9percentofmammals(416),10percentoffreshwater fish(799),29percentoffreshwatermussels(292),61percentofcrayfish(322),and17percentoffreshwatersnails(661).Itleadstheworld in the last three. It is not as rich in birds (8 percent) and amphibians (5 percent), except for salamanders, in which it leads the world with 40percent(140).Ithasonly7percentoffloweringplants,butnextto Chinathemostconifers,andamongthemthetallest(Redwood),largest (Sequoia),andoldest(BristleconePine).Hawaiiisauniqueecoregion. Mostofitsplantsandinsectsareendemic(ithasover1,000speciesof fruitfly),anditoncehadover8,800endemicsinall(morethantherest ofthestatescombined,butmanyarenowextinct).TheUnitedStateshas about100endemicmammals,largelyrodents,and65ofitsroughly768 birdsarealsoendemic.(Thesenumberswouldbehigherifitwerenot forthelargeoverlapwithCanadaorMexico.)TheUnitedStateshasover 4,000endemicplants.Itleadstheworldinendemiccrayfish,snails,mussels,salamanders,andmanyspeciesindifferentfamiliesthatliveinour largenumberofcaves.14 Howmanyspecies,atleastthoseabovemicroorganismsandroundworms,havebecomeextinctintheUnitedStatessinceEuropeansettlement?Noonecanknowforsure,particularlyatthelevelofplantsand insects. Only one mammal seems to have vanished, the monk seal.At
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least twenty-five birds are extinct or probably extinct, but nineteen of those lived in Hawaii. Four in the rest of the United States are clearly extinct (Carolina parakeet, passenger pigeon, great auk, and Labrador duck). Only two amphibians and seventeen freshwater fish are extinct or probably extinct.Thus, the loss at the most visible level, and at the levelofthemostpopularawarenessandconcern,issurprisinglylow.The estimatesforotherspeciesarelessfirm,particularlyforinsects(around 166)andfloweringplants(137).Someofthesespecies,manylongconsideredlost,turnupalmosteveryyear,andundoubtedlyplentyofunknownextinctionsarenotlisted.Morecertainarethecriticallossesin theoneareaofAmericanexceptionalism—132snailsand37mussels.In all,249ofanestimated978extinctspeciesarefromHawaii.Forsome insectsthatposethreatstohealth,humanshavetriedfordecadestogain extinctions(ticks,cockroaches,mosquitos),andlikewiseforthosethat threatencropsortrees.Notethattheselistedextinctionsinvolvenative species,notinvasivespecies,fewofwhichhavebecomeextinctinAmericadespiteoftencostlyeffortstodestroythem. HowmanyspeciesinAmericaarethreatenedwithextinction?This questionbegsacomplexanswer.Formammals,birds,andpossiblyreptilesandamphibians,onecangiveareasonablyinformedanswer.Not soforinsectsandsomeplants.BeyondtheFWSlistsofendangeredand threatenedspeciesareitscandidatespecies,manyofwhichitwilleventuallyaddtotheendangeredandthreatenedlists.Notethattheselistsderive notfromanybroadsurveyofspecies,butbynominationofconcerned people.Itisnotfullyinclusive,particularlybelowmammalsandbirds, andprobablyisnotatallcomprehensiveforinsects,ferns,andlichens. NofullinventoryofspeciesexistsfortheUnitedStates,andonlythefirst effortatintensivelocalsurveysareunderway,themostambitiousbeing intheGreatSmokyMountainsNationalPark. Theonlycomprehensiveefforttolistallimperiledspecieswasthe oneconductedbytheNatureConservancyandpublishedinPreciousHeritagein2000.ButitscategoriesdonotmatchthoseoftheFWS.Itsfirsttwo categories,criticallyimperiledandimperiled,comeclosetotheFWS’s endangered and threatened, but are not exact fits.The Nature Conservancydefinescriticallyimperiledasspecieswithapopulationofunder 1,000 and those clearly threatened in the present. Imperiled includes thosewithapopulationoffrom1,000to3,000,plusothercriteria.These twocategoriesinclude2,758species(917animalsand1,841plants),or
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morethandoublethe1,311onthecombinedFWSlist.Ifoneincluded candidateandnominatedspeciesfortheFWS,thenthelistswouldbe closerinsize,butfarfromidenticalincontent.Insomecases,theNature ConservancygivesalesscriticalstatustospeciesthandoesFWS.Beyond imperiledspecies,theNatureConservancylistsathirdcategory,which itcallsvulnerable,andherelistsspeciesthatgenerallyhaveapopulation from3,000to10,000.Itusestheterm“atrisk”forallthreecategories. Also,unliketheFWS,ittriestodeterminehowmanyecocommunitiesor associationsareatrisk.Itssurveyismoreinclusive,itscategoriesatleast as well-justified as the federal ones, and the final result possibly more useful,buttheamountofscientificdocumentationisconsiderablyless. LiketheFWS,itbreaksdownitsliststothestatelevel.15 Biodiversity,asagoal,isbroaderthansimplypreventingextinction. Effectivebiodiversitymeansnotjusttheisolatedpresence,somewhere, ofanysinglespecies,butacomplexmixandbalanceamongspeciesin anyoneenvironment.Ifinthepastthenumberofmammalsinagiven ecosystem had been thirty, and it is now only fifteen, then one has a measureofwhathasbeenlost,evenifnoneofthenowabsentmammals areendangered.Onecauseofsuchalosscouldbetheshiftfrommixed woodlandstothemonocultureoftreeplantations.Andnotethatsucha shift,whichmightdisplacehalfthemammals,haseffectivelydisplaced almostallspeciesoftrees.Imbalancesarealsocreatedbydisplacements causedbytheexplodingpopulationofonespecies,possiblyfromthedestructionofkeypredatorsorhuman-inducedshiftsinfoodsupplies.One thinksoftheexplosionofraccoonandopossumnumbersinsuburban neighborhoods,basedonplentifulgarbageandanabsenceofpredators, includinganyhuntingbyhumans.OrthesurgeofbisoninYellowstone Park,onlynowbeingchallengedbyanewgraywolfpopulation.Orthe oftendangerousexplosionofalligatorsintheGulfstatesbecauseofthe cessationofhumanpredationbasedonanendangeredstatus.But,byfar, the most critical ecological threat posed by a radical imbalance in the UnitedStatesistheartificiallylargepopulationofwhite-taileddeer.In someareas,theirwinterbrowsingpreventsthereproductionofanytrees, thusendangeringfutureforests.Ironically,thepastdangerofoverhuntinghasbeenreplacedbyeffectivelobbyingbyhunterstosolimitthe annualkillsastomaintainalargepopulationofdeer,sincehumansnow aretheonlyeffectivepredatorsofdeer. Today,unlikeahundredyearsago,hunting,fishing,andtrappingin
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theUnitedStatesarenotmajorcontributorstoextinction,but,assuggestedabove,theinterestsofhuntersandanglersmayhavealottodo with imbalances in an ecosystem.The greatest threat to biodiversity is habitatloss,mostlycausedbyhumanaction.Asithasalwaysbeen,the onelargestcauseofsuchlossisagriculture,bothfarmingandgrazing. Justbelowthisishumandevelopmentprojects,suchasnewhousingdevelopments,militarybases,majorwaterprojects,beginningwithdams, androadconstruction.Waterpollutionandsiltationaremajorcausesof losthabitatsforaquaticspecies.Outdoorrecreation,logging,mining,oil explorationanddrilling,andbadfiremanagementinforestsareother causes. Displacementbyimportedalienspeciesissecondonlytohabitatloss, andarapidlygrowingthreattobiodiversity.Inthefutureitmaybethe largest problem. Such a recent invader as theAsian longhorned beetle makesthisclear,forifnotcheckeditmaythreatenallourforests.The GreatLakeshavebeendoublyendangered,firstbythealewife,andnow bytheprolificzebramussel.Floridalakesandstreamshavesufferedterriblyfromtheimportedwaterhyacinth,Texaswatersfromhydrilla,while theSouthAmericannutria,largerandmoreprolificthanthenativemuskrat,isplayinghavocwiththebayousofLouisiana.Americahasalready allbutlosttwoofitsmostimportanttreestoaliens,thechestnutandthe Americanelm,andseveralotherspeciesarenowatrisk.Intheeastern UnitedStates,everyoneisfamiliarwiththeravagesoftheJapanesebeetle andthegypsymoth.Thelistcouldgoon,fortheUnitedStatesalready suffersfromoverfivethousandaliens,includingmanyofourmostimperialisticweedsandvines,withkudzuleadingthelist. ThegeographyofAmericanbiodiversityis,inmostrespects,favorable toeffortstomitigateextinction.Alaskaandformerlyglaciatednorthern stateshavefewendangeredspecies.Infact,inmuchoftheupperMidwest,theonlyendangeredspeciesinmanycountieshasbeenthebald eagle,anditisnowrecoveringalmosteverywhere.Thereasonsofewendangeredspeciesarethereisthatthediversityofspeciesismuchlower, inpartbecauseinglaciatedareasnotsomanyspecieshavereoccupied theareainonlytenthousandyears.Theareasofgreatestspeciesdiversity, andthemostendangeredspecies,areregionallyconcentrated,whichcan helpfocusconservationefforts.TheNatureConservancyestimatesthat only6percentofthelandareaofthecountryincludesallimperiledspecies,andthateffectiveconservationeffortsinonly10percentoftheland
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area could prevent most likely extinctions.The United States, as made clearbyaflyover,stillhasalargeshareofforests(onalmost40percent oftheland)andofopencountryside.Ithaslostuptohalfofitswetlands, butpresentregulationsshouldpreventmuchfurtherloss.Thelanddevotedtoagricultureissteadilydeclining,whileurban-typedevelopment stillinvolvesnomorethan1percentofland.Suburbandevelopmentcan endangerspecies,butifwell-planneditcanoftensheltermorespecies thanopenfarmland.Infact,somesuburbanareas,afterafewyears,are mostlyforested. TheNatureConservancyhasuseditssurveystoidentifywhatitcalls hotspots,orsixareaswiththegreatestdiversityofspeciesandthosein greatestdanger.OnehotspotisthesouthernAppalachians,particularly aregioninSouthwestVirginiaandNortheastTennesseethatishometo somanythreatenedfreshwatersnails,fish,andmussels.Asecondisthe FloridapanhandleandpartsofsouthernAlabama,againanarearichin aquaticspecies.AthirdistheDeathValleyarea,andmuchoftheGreat Basinaroundit.AfourthisthecoastalareaofsouthernCalifornia.Afifth istheSanFranciscoBayarea.ThelastisHawaii,auniquechallengein itself. What are the tools for protecting endangered species and for supporting biodiversity more generally? Once again, the United States is fortunate.Themostpowerfultoolforcontrollinglanduseisownership. Thefederalgovernmentownsover25percentofallland,andstateand local governments at least 5 percent more.The federal land is heavily concentratedintheWest,with80percentfederalownershipinNevada. Almost one-fourth of endangered or imperiled species are exclusively, orlargely,onfederallands.Three-fifthsarepresentonfederallands.The largestnumberareonmilitaryreservations(widelydistributed)andin nationalforests,notinwildliferefuges(mostofthesepredatedtheESA, andprotectedonlyselectspecies,includingalargenumberofducksand geese).ExceptfortheFWS,fewfederalagenciesacquiredlandinorder toprotectbiodiversity,noteventhenationalparks.Suchprotectionwas incidental in many cases, but under the ESA all federal agencies, with certain exemptions involving treaties or national security, have to give protectiontoendangeredandthreatenedspecies.Bythisbackdoorroute, biodiversityisnowamandatedgoalforthemanagementofallpublic lands,includingstateparksandforests. Suchgovernmentalownershipwillnotbeenoughtoprotectsome
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species,andaboveallwillnotinsurethatecoregionsorhotspotsreceive protectionforarangeofmutuallyrelatedspecies.Thiswillhavetoinvolveprivatelyownedlands.Overhalfofallendangeredspeciesliveon privatelands,andabout10percentareexclusivelyorlargelyonprivate lands. But private lands are not exempt from governmental regulation tiedtobiodiversitygoals.Ultimately,landisownedbythesovereignentity, which inAmerica means the federal government as a representativeofasovereignpeople.Whatprivatecitizensown,legally,isatitleto landgrantedbyagovernment,butsuchnevergivesanyabsolutecontrol overland.Infact,whenneeded,governmentscantakeprivatelandfor publicuses(eminentdomain),butinthiscountrytheconstitutionrequires compensation for private owners. But short of reclaiming land, governments can place limits on what owners can do with their land, andgovernmentshavealwaysdoneso.Foroverahundredyears,states havecontrolledhuntingandfishingonprivatelands.Foranevenlonger period,citieshaveusedzoninglawstocontroluse.Today,theconstraints onprivateusenumberinthedozens.ManyoftheseinvolvetheCleanAir andCleanWaterActsortheNationalWetlandsConservationActof1989. TheESAissimplyoneofthemoststringent.Landownershavetoprotect endangeredspeciesontheirlandanddesistfromnewdevelopmentor usesthatthreatensuchspecies,andinsomecasestheFWScanevenrequireownerstomakehabitatchangestoprotectaspecies.Butallsuch controls have involved extensive litigation and claims for loss of land valuesoccasionedbysuchlaws. Othermeansofprotectingendangeredspeciesinvolveprivateconservationorganizations,suchastheNatureConservancy,whichhasbought orreceivedbygiftover10millionacreswiththeprimarygoalofsaving species. Smaller private conservation agencies have bought smaller parcels of land.The Nature Conservancy has also solicited, or bought, conservationeasementsfromprivateowners,easementsthatpreventdevelopmentandcertainuses.Thisisamongtheleastexpensiveofwaysto gainprotectionforspeciesatrisk.Somelanddevelopershaveadopted habitatconservationplansforsubdivisions,andoftenusedthistoappealtoenvironmentallyconcernedbuyers.Moststatesoffertaxincentives,particularlytofarmersandforestowners,tosignacovenantthat precludesanydevelopmentoftheland,thuskeepingitruralandmore opentowildlife.Foralmostacentury,theDepartmentofAgriculture hasofferedsubsidiesforconservationpractices(terraces,ponds),and
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since1985ithaspaidfarmerstoplacelandinaConservationReserve,a contractualagreementthattodaykeepsover40millionacresoffarmland idleandmorehospitabletowildlife(theprimarypurposeistoreduce agriculturalsurpluses).Beyondallthis,privateownersoften,outofconviction,takeactiontoprotectspecieswithoutanyfinancialincentives. Legislation and public concern have helped slow extinctions, particularly in developed countries, and will minimize them in the near future.Butsuccessinpreservingsmall,sometimesmarginalpopulations ofthreatenedspeciesmaybemisleading.Thenextstep,alreadyfollowed forsomeexoticmammals,istopreservethreatenedspeciesinzoos.The mostpopularofallmammals,thepanda,isclosetothatstatusalready. Reintroductionofcaptivepopulationsintothewildhasproveddifficult andveryexpensive.Allsucheffortsonlydocumentthefactthatgrowing humanpopulations,andtypesofconsumption,areoftennotconsistent withtheunaidedsurvivalofmanyspecies.Theyhavenoplace,norole toplay.Humanscan,iftheywant,savemanyofthesespeciesfromfinal extinction.Buttheycannoteasilyrestorethehabitatsthatenablethemto survivewithoutaidandprotection.Functionally,agrowingnumberof speciesareextinct,eventhoughindividualssurvive.Notethatthephrase “wildlifemanagement”is,fromacertainperspective,anexampleofhumandominanceandevenarrogance. Where humans have massively changed an environment, as in the introductionofintensiveagriculture,orevenmorethebuildingofcities, theyhavecreatednewecosystems.Thenewmixofspeciesthatresulted isnotunnatural,justdifferent.Itmakeslittlesensetotrytoreconstruct ecosystemsthatexistedbeforehumansettlement,unlessonewantsto move humans out and somehow regain the old mix, which in most cases would be impossible.The nearest approximation of older biocommunitieswouldbelarge,setasidewildernessareas,butevenhere thehumanimpactwouldbeinescapable,sinceairpollutantsandacid raincouldblowinfromtheoutside.Tothatextent,humansareimplicated in all present ecological communities. One could add, for better or for worse. But this evaluative language begs criteria. Better for whom?Forhumansorforspecieseitherthreatenedordisplaced?Most human rearrangements of an environment favor humans, at least in mostrespects,orintheshortrun.Yet,insomecases,suchrearrangementsmayposedirethreatstohumansinthefuture.Maybesomeof the extinctions now under way around the world will eventually even
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threatenhumansurvival.Ifweknewwhichonescouldhavesuchimpact, humanswouldbehardatworktryingtosavethosespecies.Wedonot know,andcautionmayindeedmandatethatwetrytokeepasmuchbiodiversityaspossible.Forhumaneandestheticreasons,thisisimperative, butitisnotnowclearthathumansurvivalisatstakeinthecaseofmost threatenedspecies.
PARTFOUR
ClimateChange Todaythemostcomplexenvironmentalissuefacinghumansisthethreat ofrapidclimatechange.Warminghasclearlyoccurredovermuchofthe earthduringthelastthreedecades.Willitcontinue?Whatareitscauses? Howmuchhashumanactionbeenavital,necessaryconditionforsuch warming?Andwhatcanhumansdotoslowthewarming,ortodealeffectivelywithitsconsequences?Itisnoteasytoclarifytheseissues,but Iwilltrytodoasmuchaspossibleintwochapters.Inchapter7,Iwill lookatthedynamicsofclimateandsurveylong-termtrends.Inparticular,Iwillconsidertheimplicationsofourpresentglacialcycles,andthe possibilitiesofveryrapidclimatechangeinthenearfuture.Inchapter8, Iwilltrytoclarifytherangeofcomplexissuesthatareinvolvedinthe presentwarmingofourclimate,andthedegreetowhichhumanemissionsofgreenhousegasesarenecessaryconditionsofsuchwarming.
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he earth is now subject to cyclical periods of extensive glaciation. Weareapproachingwhat,ifpastpatternsprevail,willbetheendof averystableandwarminterglacialperiod.Thesehaverarelylastedover eleventhousandyears,andmakeuponly10to15percentofthetimein thelastmillionyearsthattheearthhasenjoyedaverywarmclimate.In fact,basedonhistoricalpatterns,weshouldalreadybeinthefirststages ofanewageofrapidcooling.Itispossiblethatwewillinthiscentury seeevidenceofwhatcouldbearapidchangeinclimate,probablyone basedonmajorshiftsinoceancurrents.Itisalsopossiblethatthehumanimpactonclimate,basedlargelyontheburningoffossilfuels,will delayorpreventanyearlyshifttocooling,butitisequallyconceivable thatitwillhastenthatonset.Theseareamongthemostfascinatingand significant issues affecting our present earth and its prospects for the future.
THEBASICSOFCLIMATE Essentially, climate involves temperature and precipitation, the average annualdistributionpatternofeach,andthemanyconditions(airpressuredifferences,wind,andoceancurrents)thatshapeandcontrolboth. Meteorologistshavedevelopedvariouswaysofclassifyingclimates.For precipitation (rain, snow, sleet, hail), the variables range from humid tosemiaridtoarid,withqualificationsforannualdistribution(wetand dryseasonsratherthanauniformornearuniformannualdistribution). 165
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Settingquantitiesforeachofthesevariablesistosomeextentarbitrary. Temperaturecategoriesrangefromtropical(orhot),tosubtropical,to temperate(ormid-latitude),tocoldorpolar.Onespecialclimate,often calledmarinewestcoast,featurescoolsummersandmildwinters,asin BritainorthenorthwesterncoastoftheUnitedStates.Whenthetemperatureandprecipitationarecombined(suchashumidtropical),onecan plotthemajorclimatezones,orinmostclassificationsfromaboutsixteen totwenty-fourzones.BecauseofAlaskaandHawaii,theUnitedStateshas representationsofmostclimatezoneshowevertheyareclassified. Thedeterminantsofanylocalclimatearemany.First,ofcourse,isthe energyreachingtheearthfromthesun.Unevenheatingleadstowind andtovaryinglevelsofairpressure.Thepressureofairisitsweight,or howmuchgravityleadsittopressdownontheearth’ssurface.Forevery squareinch,thisisaboutfifteenpoundsatsealevel.Itsweightisprogressivelylessasonemovesabovesealevel.Barometersmeasuretheweight oftheair,usuallywithadjustmentstoreflectwhatthepressurewouldbe atsealevel.Byconvention,basedontheearliestandstilleasiestmodeof measuringpressure,levelsofpressurearecalibratedaccordingtohow muchtheairwillraiseacolumnofmercuryinavacuumtube.Atsea level,thisisjustunder30inches(or1013millibars). Itisrarethatairpressure,atanyonepoint,exactlymatchesthesea levelaverage.Heatedsurfaceswarmthenearbyaireitherbyconduction orbylongwaveradiation.Thisheatedairislighter,rises,expands,and cools,bothasaphysicaleffectoftheexpansionandbecauseofthelower pressurethatexistsathigheraltitudes.Inareasofwarmerandrisingair, thepressureislowest.Theairaroundsuchlowpressuremovesintoward thelow,creatingwind.Thesharperthepressuredifferenceorgradients, thefasterthewind.Becauseoftheeffectoftheearth’sspeedofrotation (fastest at the equator, diminishing toward the poles) on observations ofrelativemotion(thesocalledCoriolisforce),intheNorthernHemispherethewindsmovingintoandupwardinalow,fromtheperspective of the earth’s surface, deflect to the right, and thus create the counter clockwisewindsofacyclone(onemovingwiththewindwouldbefollowinganaturalgeodesic,wouldfeelnocentrifugaleffects,butwould seetheearthswirlingbelowher).Areasofcoolerandheavierairmake upahigh-pressuresystem.Thiscoolerairmovesdownwardfromahigh and, again deflecting to the right in the Northern Hemisphere, moves clockwise.ThesewinddirectionsreverseintheSouthernHemisphere.
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Onecouldpredictthattemperatureswouldcoolasonemovesfrom the equator to the poles. But so many other factors intervene that no generalizedtemperaturegradienteverfitsanypartoftheearth,noteven overtheoceans.Asageneralrule,landtemperaturesvarylessduringthe year near oceans than farther inland, with the greatest variance in the center of large landmasses (such as Siberia or central Canada).This is simplybecauselandheatsandcoolsmuchfasterthanwater.Butbecause oftheeffectofoceancurrents,oceantemperaturesdonotalwaysreflect latitude,andthuscanwarmcoastalareas(asinwesternEuropebecause oftheGulfStream)orcoolthem(asinthecaseoftheLabradorcurrent thatflowsdowntheeasterncoastofCanadaortheHumboldtthatflows upthewesterncoastofSouthAmerica).Instableair,altitudehasadirect effectontemperature.Witheachthousandfeetup,thetemperaturedrops 2C(3.6F).Buteventhisruleallowsexceptions,suchasairinversions (alayerofwarmairabovecoolersurfaceair)invalleysorbasinsorunder stagnanthigh-pressuresystems. Dryair,asitrisesintheatmosphere,coolsmostrapidly(3Cor5.5F) foreachthousandfeet.Thisisknownastheadiabaticlapserate.What heatsairismolecularactivity.Themorepressure,thegreaterthisactivity,andthusthehottertheair.Asairbecomeslighter,itexpands,with alossofheat.Thus,anupward-movingcolumnofair,unlikethestable airalreadyinplace,undergoesexpansion,andtherebycoolsfaster.Butif therisingairishumid,withaltitudethetemperaturewillsoonreachthe dewpoint(thepointatwhichthehumidityreaches100percent).Atthis pointcondensationbegins,withwatervaporturningintowaterdroplets, infogorclouds(theymayormaynotreachthegroundasprecipitation). Condensationwarmstheair(evaporationcoolsit),inthesamesenseasthe formationoficewarmsthesurroundingwater.Thismeansthatthelossof heatinrising,humidairmaybeaslowas1.2Cforeachthousandfeet. Warm,humidairthatmovesupandovermountainrangeslosesmostofits moistureincondensationandprecipitation,evenasitcoolsslowly,buton thewaydowntheothersideofthemountainitwarmsatthefulladiabatic rate.Thus,aftercrossingtheSierraNevada,airfromoverthePacificcanbe asmuch16CwarmerthanwhenitmovedinfromthePacific(thisdry hottransmontaneairiscalledaChinookintheUnitedStates). Water vapor mainly results from the cooling evaporation of water, mostly over the oceans (presently 97 percent of all the earth’s water). Othersourcesofwatervapor,suchasthetranspirationoftrees,havea
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limitedimpactonhumiditylevels.Themovementofhumidairfromthe oceansoverlandaccountsformostterrestrialprecipitation.Iftheterrain islevelornearlevel,liketheMississippivalleyintheUnitedStates,warm, moistairisfreetomovefarinland,ifwindsareavailabletosomoveit. Thismeansalargeareawithawetclimate,ifprevailingwindscarrythe moistureinlandallduringtheyearandenoughcyclonicactivity(low pressurewithrisingair)ispresenttoinsureprecipitation.Itmeansawet anddryclimateiftheincomingwindsareseasonal.Ifmountainranges impedethemovementofwarm,moistair,therisingairmasslosesmost ofitsmoistureonthewayup,creatinglushgrowthonthewindward sidebutarainshadowontheotherside.Thisistrueforthearidgreat basininthewesternUnitedStatesandforareasofcentralAsiabeyondthe Himalayas.However,mostdesertsresultnotfromtherainshadow,but fromalackofmoisture-ladenedair.Inareaswithaseasonalmonsoon, thepresenceofalargecontinentalhighduringthewinterpushesdry andcoldwindsseaward,withnomoisturetosupportprecipitation.This winterhighgiveswaytolow-pressurezonesduringtheintensesummer heatingincontinentalareas,allowingwarm,moistairtoflowonland fromnearbyoceans,creatingamonsoon,asinIndia(manyotherfactors arepresentinthisandmostotherfamousmonsoons). Winds correlate with air pressure gradients, and these in turn reflectvariationsintemperatures.Iftheworldwereonlyoceans,onecould create a very useful model reflecting normal prevailing wind patterns. The land areas mess up such a model, most of all the very turbulent weatherpatternsofNorthAmerica.Onlytwoclimatesarehighlypredictable—alongtheequatorandoverthepoles.Theheatattheequator,over bothlandandoceans,createsapermanentareaoflowpressure.Herethe warmairrisesand movesoutfromwhatamountsto aworld-circling lowtrough.Althoughthepressureislow,itisusuallyuniformlyso.Thus the center tropics is not an area of violent storms.The cold, ice-coveredpolarregionseachcreateanearpermanenthigh-pressurearea,with airmovingdownandoutfromthehigh.Nowhereelseonearthisthe airpressureasconstant,andtheweatheraspredictable,asinthesetwo zones.Butatleastovertheoceansonecanchartotherratherstablepatterns.Thehigh-levelwarmairthatmovesoutfromtheequatorreachesa limitatabout30northandsouth.Herearelikelyareasforlargehigh- pressurezones,suchastheBermudahighthatsoaffectssummerweather intheUnitedStates.Theserathernarrowbandsofhighpressurearenot
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asstableastheequatoriallows,norasuniform.Calledthehorselatitudes, theyareareasofrelativecalmovertheoceans. Boththeequatoriallowsandthehorselatitudesshiftwiththeseasons,movingnorthintheNorthernHemisphere’ssummer,buttheshift is never as much as the present 23.5 degrees of inclination. From the horselatitudehighs,airmovesdownandout,sometowardtheequator. In the Northern Hemisphere, the Coriolis effect diverts this air to the right,creatingprevailingwindsfromthenortheastoreast.Thesewinds, calledtrades,hadavitalroleintheageofsailingships.Europeanships, headedfortheAmericas,couldmovedowntotheCanaries,pickupthe trades,andsailatgoodspeedtoAmerica.TheAtlantictradewindsare veryreliable,butifsailingshipsmovedtoofarnorthintheAtlantic,underthehorselatitudehighs,theycouldbebecalmedforweeksandthe occupantscoulddieofstarvation.Onealmostcontinuouslycalmareais theSargassoSea.ThetradesarealsopresentinthePacific,butnotasreliableasintheAtlanticOcean. From the horse latitude highs, other downward-moving air moves northintheNorthernHemisphere,orintotheNorthAtlanticandPacific andontothegreatNorthAmericanandEurasianlandmasses.TheCoriolis shiftmeansthatthesewindsmovefromthesouthwestandwest,creating theprevailingwesterliesoftheUnitedStates.Thesewesterliesledsailing ships,returningtoEurope,tosailnorthandtheneastacrosstheNorth Atlantic. But over land these Northern Hemisphere westerlies are very turbulentanderratic.Theyareoftenmovedoutoftheirwesterlypathby movingairmasses,cyclones,ormajorhigh-pressureareas,plusattimes wildaberrationsinthejetstream. Inasense,themid-latitudeorpolarfrontjet,themostpowerfulofall knownupperairwinds,issimplyaconcentratedpartoftheprevailing westerlies.Surprisedpilotsofhigh-altitudepropellor-drivenairplanesin WorldWarIIfirstnotedajetstream;theysometimesmadenoprogress astheytriedtomovewest,orattainedupto150milesofextraspeed (in relation to the ground) as they flew east.This mid-latitude jet can reachspeedsofover300mphinwinter,whenitmovesdowntoaround 27,000feet.Inthesummeritishigher(36,000to40,000feet)andrarelyreacheseven100mph.Thisstreamoffast-movingairhasapowerful impactonthemovementofsurfacelow-pressuresystems,andthuson theplacementandintensityofstorms.Thechartingofthejetstreamhas become indispensable to weather forecasting.The jet stream can move
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surfacelowsacrosstheUnitedStatesatgreatspeeds.Buttheseupperlevel windshaveaninteractiverelationshiptoupperairhighsandlows.Ina sense,thejetstreamwendsitswayaroundbothpowerfulhigh-pressure andlow-pressureupperairmasses,helpingnudgethemalongevenasits owndirectionisshapedbythem. Thisgeneralizedmodelofprevailingwindsignoresoftenquitedifferentupperairwindpatternsthatcomplementthesurfacemovements, anditalsoignoressomesmallerwindzonesaroundArcticareas.Yet,even suchasimplifiedmodelidentifiesnotonlysomedeterminantsofclimate, butalsothesourcesofmajorweathersystems.Overwater,wherecooler tradewindsmeetwarmequatorialair,inwhatiscalledtheintertropicalconvergencezone,mostoftheworld’shurricanes(calledtyphoons inEastAsiaandcyclonesintheIndianOcean)originate.Onespawning groundisjustoffthewestcoastofAfrica,anotherisoffGuatemalaand southernMexico,andathirdisintheareaeastofthePhilippines.The UnitedStateseastoftheRockies,whichsufferssomeofthemostturbulentweatherintheworld,includingthelargestnumberoftornados,is abattlegroundforwarmandoftenmoistairfromtheGulforsouthern AtlanticthatcollideswithcoldanddryairmovingdownfromCanada.In thewinter,polarairmovessouthfromitscold,continentalhighinboth northernNorthAmericaandinSiberia.Periodically,thisairmassshifts fartothesouth,creatingthenorthersthatcausefrigidtemperaturesin theMidwestandevenintotheAmericanSouth. DuringthewintermonthsthehumidairovertheAleutiansspawnsan almostcontinuousseriesofstorms(centersoflowpressure)thatmove infromthePacificoverthewestcoastofCanadaandtheUnitedStates, bringingsnowtotheNorthwestandthemountainsandwinterraininto California costal areas. In the spring and summer, as jet stream winds movenorthbutwithfrequentdips(troughs)andhumps(ridges),cold and warm air masses constantly battle in the middle states, leading to intenselows,coldfronts,squalllines,violentthunderstorms,and,when conditions are right, major outbreaks of tornados.An upper air, often stagnantAtlantichighofftheEastCoasthelpspumpwarm,moistairinto the central United States, where it meets cool, dry air, fueling intense storms.Insomesummers,stagnantupperairhigh-pressuresystemsover thesouthcentralUnitedStatesleadtomajorheatwaves,stormsaround the edges of the high, considerable air inversion, unhealthy haze and smog,andextendeddroughtsbeneaththem.
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Theoceansvariouslyaffectclimate.Circulationpatternsintheoceans arealmostasimportantasprevailingwinds.Heremuchisstillunknown, particularly about deep ocean currents. But in theAtlantic and Pacific, there are patterns. In both hemispheres, because of wind patterns and topography,alargecircularmovementofsurfacewaterprevails.Inthe NorthernHemispherethismeansaclockwisedirectionofflowcaused bytheCorioliseffect.ItismostpronouncedintheNorthAtlantic,where theGulfStream(theworld’smostpowerfulcurrent)flowsnorthalong theFloridacoastandasfarasthewatersoffCapeCod,thenacrossthe NorthAtlantictotheBritishIslesandScandinavia.Ingeologicalterms, the rather recent closing of the Panama isthmus (about 3.5 million years ago) because of plate movements was probably responsible for majorclimatechangesinEurope,asthismadepossibletheGulfStream. TocompletetheNorthAtlanticcirculation,coolersurfacewaterflows downthewestcoastofEuropeandthenbackacrosstheAtlantic,but notinasfocusedorasfastacurrent.Supportingthepresentpathof the Gulf Stream is an earth-spanning, millennium-long exchange of surfacewateranddeepcoldwater,orwhatiscalledthethermohaline circulation, which I will explain below.A similar circulation pattern, butwithoutthesamedegreeofdeepwaterinvolvement,andwiththe opposite direction, prevails in the SouthAtlantic. In the Pacific, two even larger but in most cases less coherent circular patterns prevail, withthemostfocusedandsignificantflowupthewestcoastofSouth America (the cold Humboldtcurrent).Nosuchclearpatternexistsin theIndianOcean. Morelocalizedcurrentsvariouslyfeedintothesemajorcirculations (theLabradorcurrentthatcoolseasternCanada,andwhosenutrientrich watershelpcreateoneofthegreatestfishingbanksintheworld),orspin offfromthem(thepartoftheGulfStreamthatmovesaboveScandinavia andintotheArctic).Suchcurrentsmeanthat,atplaces,high-latituderegionsarewarmedandportsareicefree(Norway),whileareasatsimilar orevenlowerlatitudes(Labrador)areverycold.ExceptinElNiñoyears, whentheHumboldtcurrentmovesawayfromthecoast,watersinthe easternmid-Pacificarequitecold,evenallowingpenguinstosurvivein theequatorialGalapagosIslands.BecauseoftheGulfStream,peopleflock totheEastCoast’s75waterasfarnorthasMassachusetts,whileasfar southasSantaBarbarathePacificistoochillyforcomfortablebathing becauseofthecoldAlaskan(orCalifornian)current.1
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GLACIALCYCLES Wewouldbebetterabletounderstandourpresentclimateifweknew moreaboutthelong-termdynamicsofclimatechange.Wenowlivein thewarmorinterglacialphaseofamajorcycleinworldclimate,acycle thatcompletesitselfapproximatelyeveryhundredthousandyears.Duringthiscycle,thewarminterglacialperiodcanbeupto10to12C warmerinthehighernorthernlatitudesandupto4to6Cwarmerin thetropicsthanduringtheiceagethatprecedesit.Inthepast,geologists adoptedthelabelPleistocenetodesignatewhattheybelievedtobethe epochofglaciers,oraperiodstretchingfromabout2millionyearstothe endofthelastglacialperiod,theWisconsin,whichbyconventionthey datedattenthousandyearsago.Thelabelisdoublymisleading—glacial cyclesclearlypredatedthebeginningdate,whilenothingsuggeststhat the“iceages”endedtenthousandyearsago.Itisnowreasonablyclear thattheearliestmajorglacialcyclesgobacktonearly2.5millionyears ago(stillrecentingeologicaltime),andthatlessfrequentandmilder cyclesmaygoevenfartherback. Itseemsthattheglacialcycleshavebeencolder,withdeeperbutnot moreextensiveice,sinceabout730,000yearsago(eightinall).Inthe United States we now identify the most recent near-similar cycles by statenames—Nebraska,Kansas,Illinois,andWisconsin.FortheUnited StatesandCanada,theveryrecentWisconsinglacierisallimportant,for it shaped so much of the present physical map of the continent (the greatlakes,thefertileprairiesofthecentralanduppergreatplains,the exposedrockandthinsoilsofthegougedoutLaurentianplateau,most ofthethousandsoflakesinthenorthernUnitedStatesandCanada).It wasahumdingerofaglacier,withicecovering30percentoftheland surfaceoftheearthatitsclimax.Itwasalsotheonlyglaciertolastuntil thearrivalofHomosapiensinthehigh-latitudeareasoftheNorthern Hemisphere,andthusthefirsttobedirectlyexperiencedbyhumans. Whatnooneknowsiswhytheglacialcyclesbegan,orbeforethem agradualcoolingoftheearththatgoesbackabout40millionyears.We haveseveraltheories,butnothingclosetocertainknowledgeaboutwhat triggerseachnewshiftbackintoaniceage.Sincetheseglaciercyclesare sorecent,onecannotexplaintheiroriginbyanymajormovementsof surfaceplates.Thecontinentswereinroughlythepresentconfiguration longbefore2.5millionyearsago.Theplatesstillmove(theNorthAmeri-
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canplatemoveswestwardeachyear,evenastheAtlanticgrowswider), butthetimeframeissomuchlargerthanglacialcyclesastopreclude directcorrelations.Itispossiblethatsomerelativelyrecentplateeffects (theopeningofawiderstretchofoceanbetweenAntarcticaandSouth America,theclosingofthePanamaisthmus,andthecontinuedupthrust oftheHimalayanchain)hadenoughimpactonoceanandwindcurrents toinaugurateanewclimateregime,butthefullevidenceislacking. TheisolationofAntarctica,becauseofplatemovements,createdocean currentsandwindpatternsthatendedmostmixingofwaterandairwith thewarmerareastothenorth.Thisled,about25millionyearsago,to itsenduringicecover.TheclosureofthePanamaisthmusabout3.5millionyearsagomadepossiblenotonlytheGulfStreamandthecyclical currentsaroundtheNorthAtlantic,butalsowhatmaybeamajordeterminantofclimateworldwide,thelocationofdeepoceanmixing,the thermohalinecirculation.TheupliftcausedbythecollisionoftheIndian subcontinentwithAsiacreatedthelargeTibetanplateau,exposinghuge amountsofigneousandsedimentaryrock.Thishelpedcreatetheicebox ofnorthernAsia,andexposedsomuchsilicaterocktochemicalweatheringastohelpreduceatmosphericCO2,whichmeantfewergreenhouse gasesandcoolertemperatures.Avastlyincreasedvolcanicactivitycould alsoexplainthecooling(theaerosolsthrownintothestratospherecould soscreenthesunastocooltemperaturesbyseveraldegrees),butwehave noevidenceofsuchcyclicalvolcanicaction. Inanycase,byabout2.5millionyearsago,NorthernHemisphereice begantoaccumulate,yearafteryear,andmigratesouthward.Forthenext 1.5millionyears,itmovedandthenrecededinwhatseemstohavebeen asymmetricalcycle,overabout41,000years.Beginningabout1million years ago, this pattern shifted to very asymmetrical cycles that average about100,000years,withmostbutnotallinterglacialperiodslasting onlyabout10,000years.RecenticecoresfromAntarcticarevealaninterglacialwarmperiodofabout28,000yearsjustfourglacialagesbackin time,oraround430,000yearsago.Sincetheconditionsthatinfluenced climatethenwereveryclosetothosetoday,onemighthopethatweare nowinonlythemiddleofanuntypicallylongandstablewarmperiod. Duringtheglacialcyclesthattheearthisnowin,thecoolingseems to begin slowly, with somewhat erratic periods of warming and cooling.Theclimatethenmovestoasustainedcoldperiod,butnotastable one,forduringthelastglacierthereweretwenty-threeperiods(called
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interstadials)ofabruptwarming,somesufficienttostoporeventemporarilyreversetheadvanceofglaciers.Thislongbutundulatingglacial periodthengiveswayquiterapidlytoaperiodofdramaticwarming, withmuchoftheglobalwarmingtakingplaceabruptly,perhapsinone decade.Thisburstofwarmingseemstobethemostsuddenanddramatic episodeintheglacialcycle,onethatcanleadtomajorextinctionsofboth plantsandanimals(themoregradualcoolingallowsaneasiermigration ofspeciesovermanymillennia).TheWisconsinglacierclimaxedasrecentlyaseighteenthousandyearsago,inwhatmayhavebeenthecoldest periodintherecenthistoryoftheearth,whenglacialicemovedfarther souththaninmostrecenticeages. WenowknowagreatdealabouttheclimateduringtheWisconsin glacier.This knowledge has required a complete reassessment of older theoriesaboutglaciers,andeveninasenseloosenedtheverymeaning ofaglacialage.IcecoresfromGreenlandthatreachback110,000years allowthefirstratherdetailedclimatehistoryoftheWisconsin.Anisotope ofoxygen(18O)hasprovidedagoodproxyfortheamountofglacialice atanyonetime,andalsoforsealevels.Thesehaveallowedareconstruction of the climate, at least on Greenland and in the Northern Hemisphere,stretchingbackoverahundredthousandyears.Whatitrevealsis aclimatepatternthatiscompletelytheoppositeofthestableclimateof thelasttenthousandyears.Itwasaclimatemarkedbycontinualturbulence,withperiodsofveryrapidwarming(suchas10Cinadecadeor two),withsomeperiodsofalmostequallyrapidcooling,butmoreoften extendedperiodsofgradualcooling.Itishardtoidentifyanyperiodof evenonemillenniumwithastableclimate(withshiftsofnomorethan 2C ).This meant a difficult time for both plants and animals, with a continuousmigrationofeachtoremaininahabitableclimatezone. Fullyreliableclimatedata,unfortunately,isalmostimpossibletofind formostofearth’shistory.Theoriesabound,butmostarecontested.One verybroadgeneralizationsurvives:theearth,despitewarmandcoldintervals,hasgraduallycooledfromthebeginningoflife(oraround3.8 billionyearsago),evenastheenergyfromthesunhasrisenbyatleast 25percent.Changesintheatmosphere,mostduetotheeffectsofliving organisms,havesupportedthecooling.Beyondthis,itisstillimpossible todeterminetheshiftsintemperatureoverlongperiodsoftime,orto discernanycleardynamicthataccountsformajorshiftsinclimate.Some correlationsaresuggestive,includingthoseinvolvingshiftsintheorbit
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oftheeartharoundthesunandgreenhousegasconcentrations,butnone fitallcases.Unfortunately,theGreenlandicecoresdonotprovidereliabledataonthewarminterglacialperiodthatprecededthisglacier.Air bubblesintheiceallowratherexactcalculationsoflevelsofmethaneand carbondioxideandofvariousaerosols.Oneproblemwithwhatwould seemtobecausalmechanismsisthattheyoftencorrelatewithwarmer orcolderperiods,butdonotclearlyprecedesuch.Thisismosttrueof carbondioxide,whichwasatitslowestebbattheendoftheWisconsin glacier,butthenbegantorisewiththewarmertemperatures,reinforcing thewarmingbutnottriggeringit. SomeplausibletheoriesaboutthewaningoftheWisconsinglacier mayhelpclarifyourpresentclimate.Around20,000yearsago,theWisconsinglacierreacheditsfinalclimaxintemperature.Aslow,irregular warmingbeganand,despiteinterludesofcoldandwarm,neverreally reversedforthenextseventhousandyears.By18,000beforethepresent (B.P.),thegreatglacierbeganaretreatfromitslastmaximum.Gradually, andsporadically,theearth’sclimatesowarmedthatglacierscontinueda gradualretreat.By13,000,largeinteriorlakeshadformed,blockedon thewaytooceansbyhugeicedams(onewasintheRockyMountains, anotherinthegreatlakesarea),andbythenthepaceofwarminghad quickened. By12,800B.P.,temperatureswereclosetopresentlevels.Thelasthalf oftheglacialcoldhadvanishedquickly.Climatologistsoftenlistthisas thelastoftheWisconsininterstadials,butitwaswarmerthananybefore.Then, as with earlier interstadials, cooling resumed, soon with a vengeance—perhapsbecauseofshiftsindeepwateroverturninginthe NorthAtlantic.ThisYoungerDryas(DryasisthenameofaflowerinpolarareasofScandinavia,andithasbeenadoptedasanameforglacial periods)meanttemperaturesneartheglaciallowof18,000yearsago. Thislastedforabout1,200years.Inabout11,600B.P.asuddenwarming occurred,withtemperaturesreachingnearmodernlevelsinaslittleasa decade.Ourpresentinterglacialinterludehadbegun.WhethertheYounger DryasledtosimilarcoolingintheSouthernHemisphereisnotasclear, withevidenceonbothsides,butatpresenttheevidencesuggestsawarminginthesouthernoceansduringthislastdyinggaspoftheWisconsin glacier.Theproblemisexplainingsuchradicaltemperatureshiftsinashort period.Couldwedoso,wemightbeabletoofferplausiblehypotheses aboutwhatinitiatesaglacialperiod,andwhatendsitsosuddenly.
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Wedohavesomeplausibletheoriesaboutthereversalofwarming around12,800B.P.Therapidwarmingbeforethis,althoughstillunexplained,ledtoarapidmeltingofcontinentalice,includingsomefrom theglaciersonGreenland.Onelikelyexplanationofthisfirstwarming wasaresumptionofwhatisnowpresent,butnotsoduringthecoldest interludesoftheWisconsinglacier,amassiveturnoverofsurfaceanddeep watersintheNorthAtlantic.Thesurgeofmeltwater,possiblycombined withincreasedrainfall,wouldhavedramaticallyreducedthesalinityof theNorthAtlantic.Tropicalwatersaremoresaltybecauseofhigherrates ofevaporation,andalloceanwatersweremoresaltythantodayduring theperiodsofmaximumglaciation(thesaltdoesnotentertheprecipitationthatcreatesglaciers,butremainsintheoceansathigherconcentrations).IntheAtlantic,today’scirculationpatterncarriesthismoresalty waternorthwardtotheareassouthofGreenland.There,becausethesalt makesthewatermoreheavy,itsinks,andinsodoingdrawsnorthacontinuingsupplyofwarmerandmoresaltysurfacewater,andalsopropels southwardice-coldArcticdeepoceanwaterthatflowsoverthesillthat separatesGreenlandfromIceland.Thisbeginsathousand-yearcirculation pattern that carries the deep cold water to the southernAtlantic, acrosstheIndianOcean,andintothenorthernPacific.Withoutanyone localpointofturnover,thisdeepwaterinthePacificslowlywarmsand rises, creating a warm current that eventually flows back to the North Atlantic.Wecallthisthethermohalinecirculation,ortheglobalconveyor belt(seefigure10).Thisoverturningofsurfacewaterandmixingwith deepcoldwateroccuratonlyafewplaces,withtheonlyotherextensive mixingaroundAntarctica.Anymajorreductionorsouthwardrelocation ofthisNorthAtlanticmixinghasmajoreffectsonclimateworldwide. Iftheincreasedfreshwaterinabout12,800B.P.soloweredthesalinityoftheNorthAtlanticastodrasticallyreduceorevenendthethermohalinemixing,thiswouldhavemeantmuchcolderweatherinareas formerlywarmedbyairthatpassedovertherelativelywarmNorthAtlantic.Notethatsuchashiftinoceancirculation,tiedtoacriticalthreshold, couldbesudden,evenoccurringinoneyear.Sucharapidcoolingwould, atleastsolongasitlasted,stopglacialmeltintheNorthernHemisphere. ItwouldalsoplungetemperaturesinwesternEuropebacktowardglacial averages.Butthiseffectiseventuallyself-correcting,forwiththeslowingorreversingofglacialretreatthesupplyoffreshwateriscutoff,and intimethenormalflowandthermohalinemixingwouldresume,asit
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Fig.10.Greatoceanconveyorbelt.(IPCC,ClimateChange2001,SynthesisReport,83.)
apparentlydidinabout11,550.DuringtheYoungerDryastheglaciers stoppedretreating,butwithouttherequiredprecipitationtheydidnot advance(theicecoresrevealaverydryperiod).However,plentyofglacialiceremained,andwouldcontinuetofloodtheoceansforthenext three thousand years, though apparently not enough to stop the deep watermixing.Around8200B.P.,alikelyperiodofverycoolweathermay haveresultedfromaslowed,butnothalted,thermohalinecirculation.Afterthatthemeltwaterdecreased.Withoutamajorsupplyofnewglacial melt,thecyclicalcoolingdidnotrecur.Thus,forthelasttenthousand years,andparticularlythelasteightthousand,theearthhasenjoyedan unusualperiodofclimatestability.Yet,evenduringourrelativelystable interglacialperiodtherehavebeensmallercycles,includingaso-called littleiceageinwesternEuropeandNorthAmericathatlastedfromthe fourteenth to the nineteenth century.These cycles, which have usually reflectedatemperatureshiftofonly1Caboveorbelowthemean,have hadmajorimpactsonrainfallpatterns,withprolongeddroughtsatleast contributingtothedeclineofseveralpastcivilizations.2 This relative stability may be about over.The warming of the last century, however caused, has contributed to a rapid reduction ofArctic ice. Recent measurements by submarines indicate that over the last
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thirty years the perennial ice sheet in theArctic has thinned by about 40 percent.At the same time, recent satellite surveys indicate that the geographicalextentofArcticiceinthesummerhasshrunkbyabout30 percent.Ifpresentratesofthinningshouldcontinue,theArcticwillbe open during summer months in about thirty years.The rapid melting maynotcontinue,fortherecentthinninghasbeenaffectedbyacyclical shiftofwindpatternstoawarmphase(theserelatetomajornorthern PacificandAtlanticoscillations).Butin2006alltheevidencepointstoan increasedrateofmeltwitheachpassingyear. Ifthispresentthawcontinues,andtheGreenlandicecapcontinues itsrecentlydoublerateofmelting,thentheNorthAtlanticwillcontinue to be flooded with fresh waters, which will contribute to what is already apparent in a small way—lower salinity.As in so many areas of climate,thisinvolvesabuildupoffactorsthatcansuddenlyleadtomajor climate shifts—in this case a disruption of the warm water flow into the NorthAtlantic and the worldwide circulation of deep cold water. Inotherwords,thewarmingandthemeltingcouldinitiateaperiodof rapidcoolingintheNorthernHemisphere.AnopenArcticwould,given certainwindpatterns,dramaticallyincreaseprecipitationaroundmuch oftheArcticOcean(theso-calledlakeeffect).Andonenecessarycondition of new glacial development in that area is more snowfall. In the mostextremescenario(unlikelybuttheoreticallypossible),thepresent warmingcouldtriggeranew,self-reinforcingeraofglaciation.Butnote thataclosingdownofthethermohalinecirculationtodaywouldinall likelihoodnotsoonleadtoincreasedglaciation.Thepresentpatternof warming,theinertiaofthenowwarmingoceanwaters,andthehigh levelofgreenhousegaseswouldatleastpostpone,possiblyforcenturies, thebeginningofanewglacialcycledespiteaswitchtoamuchcolder weatherpatterninwesternEurope. Whytheglacialcycles?Itiseasytoassumethattheaberrationneedingexplanationistheonsetofglacialice.Thiscouldbewrong,sincethe coolerperiodsarelongerthanthewarmones.But,inanycase,certain conditionsmusttriggerthecooling,orwhatwedateasthebeginning ofanewcycle.AcessationofthethermohalinecirculationintheNorth Atlanticisnowthemostpersuasiveamongpossiblenecessaryconditions. Othersarecyclicalchangesintheearth’sorbitandinclination.Among climatologists,theseshiftsinorbitalpatternshadlongremainedabout the only widely accepted theory, to the extent that indirect data series
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onpastclimatewereoftenmodifiedtobringtheminlinewithwhatis calledtheMilankovichpacemaker. ThenamederivesfromaYugoslavastronomer,MilutinMilankovich, whodevelopedthetheory,andthemathematicalcalculationstoexemplifyit,beforeWorldWarII.Hebelievedthattheproblemtobeexplained was glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere. For glaciers to grow and advance,alltheannualsnowfallcouldnotmeltduringtheshortArctic summer.Thepossibilityofsuchcarryovermeantoneoftwoscenarios,or both—morewinterprecipitationandcoolersummers.Hebelievedthe maincausewascoolersummerscausedbyorbitalshifts,orinbriefmuch lesssummercoolingandthusmeltingwhencertaincyclessomeshedas tolowerNorthernHemispheresummertemperatures. Overaperiodofroughly95,000years,theorbitoftheeartharound thesunshiftsfromnearcirculartoupto6percentawayfromcircular, withaslightlygreatereccentricityineveryfourthcycle(every400,000 years).Thisisnotagreatamount,andevenatitsgreatesteccentricitythe amountofannualsolarinsolation(orradiatedenergy)isonlyslightly decreased,ornotenoughinitselftohavemuchimpactonannualtemperatures.The loss of energy when the earth is farthest from the sun (aphelion)iscompensatedforbytheextraenergyabsorbedbytheearth whenitisclosesttothesun(perihelion).ButwhatMilankovichwasinterestedinwasnottheannualinsolation,butthatoftheArcticsummer, whichwaslowestwhensummercoincidedwiththeaphelion(faraway fromthesun).Theseasonsprecess(move)abouttheorbitinacycleof 105,000years,meaningthatthemid-summerisatitslowestenergylevel onlyforafewthousandyearsinevery105,000-yearcycle.Itislowest wheneveritisattheaphelion,howevereccentrictheorbit,butlowestof allwhentheeccentricityisatitsmaximum.Buteventhislossofsummer energycanaccountforacoolingofonlyadegreeortwo.Otherfactors mustreinforcethissmallcoolingforaglacialagetobegin. Theinclinationoftheearth(thetiltawayfromtheplaneofitsorbit) varies through time, from 21.8 to 24.4.The earth cycles from oneextremetotheothereveryforty-onethousandyears.Atpresentthe inclinationisapproximately23.5,orclosertothemaximum.Butthe present trend is toward a lower inclination, with theTropic of Cancer movingsouthbyabouttwenty-threefeeteachyear.Whentheinclinationisgreatest,thesunmoveshigherineachhemisphereatthesummer solstice,meaningthattheseasonaldifferencesintemperaturearethen
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the greatest.When the inclination is at 21.8, or the lowest, seasonal differencesareless.Forthenorthernsummer,thelowinclinationleads tolesswarmth,andthuscoolertemperatures,andthiseffect(orobliquity)hasamorepowerfulimpactontemperaturesthanchangesineccentricity.Milankovichcombinedthesetwocycleswithprecession(the axis of the earth wobbles, slowly shifting the location of the seasons) tolocateperiodswhensummerinsolationwaslowestintheNorthern Hemisphere,andarguedthatthislowtemperatureshouldcorrelatewith thebeginningofanewiceage,possiblyafteralagofafewyears.Note thattheArcticwouldbecoldestwhentheeccentricitywasgreatestand summercoincidedwiththeaphelion,andatthesametimetheobliquity waslowest,arareeventalmostduplicatedabouttwohundredthousand yearsago. MostscientistsdidnottakeMilankovichseriouslyuntillaterinquiries revealed a much longer history of glaciation than previously thought, anduntilitwaspossibletomeasure,witharatherhighaccuracy,thepatternsofseaiceduringthewholeageofglaciers.Thesemeasurementsare basedonanisotopeofoxygen(18O),whichisamolecule(twoatoms) ofoxygenwithtwomoreneutronsthanthesixteeninmostoxygen,and whichprovedtobeamarkerforpastlevelsofseaice(18Odoesnotevaporateasrapidlyasnormaloxygen,andthusintimesofglacialadvance becomesmoreconcentratedinthenowloweredlevelofoceanwater).To alargeextent,Milankovich’scalculationsseemedtocorrelatebetterthan anyotherdatawithglacialcycles,atleastuntil1millionyearsago. But, tantalizingly, the correlation was rarely exact, at least in some cycles.Thebestfitwasbetweenobliquitycyclesupuntilaboutamillion years ago, with some smaller cycles correlating with precession.These werelargeenoughintheirimpactontemperaturestosuppressmosteffectsfromeccentricity.Butinthepresentglacialcycles,orsince1million years ago, the only close correlation is with the roughly one-hundredthousand-year eccentricity cycle. It is now too weak in its impact on evensummertemperaturesinthenorth(noteven1C)toaccountfor atemperaturedropofupto10CintheArcticduringearlystagesofa newglacier.Evenlesscaneccentricityaccountforthesuddensurgeof highertemperaturesthatmarktheterminationofaglacier.Thus,atbest, theMilankovichpacemakerisaratherweaktriggerforaglacialcycle.It hastohaveseveralfeedbacksorreinforcingconditionstodoitsheavy work.ThebestcandidateisacessationoftheNorthAtlanticthermoha-
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linecirculation.Anotherchangethatcouldreinforcecoolingisamuch higherprecipitationintheArctic,whichbegsanotherdifficultproblem ofcausation.Onereinforcingmechanismwouldbeaveryrapiddropin greenhousegases;however,itseemsthatthisdoesnotprecedebutaccompaniesglaciation.Anotherwouldbeaseriesofsupervolcanoes,but itisimpossiblehistoricallytocorrelatesuchwitheccentricity.Ironically, ifglobalwarminghastheeffectofindefinitelydelayingtheonsetofa newiceage,itcouldbeablessingtohumansinthetemperatezonesof theNorthernHemisphere.Ifinsteaditsochangesthethermohalinecirculationastotriggeranewperiodofrapidcooling,itcouldbeadouble curse,particularlyintheNorthernHemisphere(lifewouldhavetoadjust torapidwarmingandthen,intime,toanewglacialage).Inpastperiods ofclimateinstabilityithasbeenrapidshiftsinclimateregimesthathave caused the most extinctions. Such a flickering climate could pose the greatestdangertohumansinthefuture. Oncethecoolingbegins,orthesnowfallstartsaccumulating,itisnot hardtofindreinforcements.Asglaciersgrow,theirwhitesurfacesreflect moreandmoreofthesun’senergy,withlittlesurfacewarmingandlittle longwaveradiation.Theprocessfeedsuponitself,anditseemsitmight continueindefinitely.Thus,themajorquestioniswhatsoquicklyhalts theglaciers?Thebestguess,andabouttheonlycredibleone,isasudden resumptionofthethermohalinemixingintheNorthAtlantic,possibly linkedtoaperiodofincreasedsolarflares(ahottersun). Theconcerntodayistheeffectofhumanactivityonarecentincrease in the mean earth temperature.We have not reached the likely climax of such warming.TheWisconsin glacier lowered mean temperatures, worldwide,byabout6C,comparedtothepresent(toameanof8Cinsteadof14C),andloweredthesealevelbyanastounding350feet.The continentalshelvesweremostlyexposed.Butintheinterglacialperiod thatprecededit,oceanlevelsroseoversevenfeetabovepresentlevels, andaveragetemperatureswereprobablyasmuchas2Cabovepresent levels,meaningmajorshrinkageinGreenlandicesheets. Presentmapsoftheearthreflect,fromtheperspectiveofthelastmillion years, an untypical view of oceans and land. For all but the early phasesoftheWisconsinglacier(beforeseventy-fivethousandyearsago), andfortwolonginterstadialsbeforethirty-fivethousandyearsago,the landareaoftheearthwassomuchlargerthanatpresentastoamount toanadditional,verylarge,andalmostlevelcontinent,orlandthat,in
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tropicalareas,sustainedanenormousamountofplantgrowth.Onecan viewtheextentofsuchanearthintheattachedmap(figure11),orby tracingthe120-metercontoursofpresentoceandepths,whichenclose areas then above sea level.The Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean were less than half their present size, theAdriatic and Black Sea were missing,andmostoftheislandsofSoutheastAsiawereconjoinedina largesubcontinent.ManytodayrefertoaformerlandbridgeconnectingAsiaandNorthAmerica.Theimageisverymisleading,foralmost all the present Bering Sea and much of theArctic Ocean north of the present Bering Strait were above sea level.The so-called bridge was as wide as western Alaska (one thousand miles), and Eurasia andNorthAmericaonegiantlandarea.Humansandlargemammals freely moved through this continental landmass;humanswerelikely unawareofanoceanthatcouldhavebeenoverfivehundredmilesaway ineitherdirection. Akeyterminmostpresentdiscussionsofclimateis“naturalvariability.”Thephraseisabitloaded.Itusuallydesignateschangesinclimate thatreflectnowell-understoodphysicalcauses,orthosethatreflectreasonablystableoscillations.Thiswouldseemtomakehumaninfluences onclimateunnatural,whichisabsurd.Actually,almostalllivingbeings havesomeimpactonclimate.Ourpresentatmosphereis,toalargeextent,theproductoflivingorganisms,includingalmostallofitsoxygen content.Thehumanimpactisnowmuchlargerthanthatofanyother species,buthardlyunnatural.Theproblem,onethatcanneverbedefinitivelyresolved,isexactlyhowmuchdoeshumanactivitycontributeto changes in the climate.Any approach to answering this question begs informationwedonothaveatpresent,andmayneverhave.Often,allwe candoisrecordwhatseemtobesignificantpatternsandcorrelations.In asense,themostimportantpatterninclimatenowistheglacialcycles, whichwecandocumentbutnotfullyexplain.Itisnotlikelythathuman actionhas,inthepast,helpedshapeglacialpatterns,buthumanaction mightdosointhefuture.Tospecifyhowsimplydemandsmuchmore understandingofthedynamicsofclimatechange.Thesecondmostcriticalpattern,andonethatmayrelatetoglaciation,istheroughlyelevenyearcycleofincreasedsolarflares.Ashort-termoscillation,theElNiño warmingofthePacific(orformallytheElNiñoSouthernOscillation,or ENSO),istodaythebestunderstoodofatleastadozenoscillationsthat climatologistshaveidentified,includingmajoronesintheNorthPacific
Fig.11.Lastglacialmaximum,18,000yearsago.(C.R.Scotese,©2006,PALEOMAPProject,allrightsreserved.)
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andNorthAtlantic.Someofthesepatternsseemtobeinterrelated,butin waysthatsofardefyanexactexplanation. TheNorthAtlanticOscillation(NAO)haslongbeennotedbyclimatologists,andispresentinobservationsthatgobackcenturies.Itinvolves airpressuregradientsinthenorthernAtlantic,withthegreatesteffects inthewinter.ThisinvolveshighpressureintheAtlanticoffIberiaand theAzores,andlowpressureoffIceland.Thesepressurezonesarealmost alwayspresent,particularlyinthewinter,butattimeseachpressurezone isweak,atothertimesveryintense.Withnoexactpattern,butinrough cycles of twenty to thirty years, the northernAtlantic shifts back and forth from weak to intense lows and highs.When intense, or what is knownasthepositivephase,thesharpdifferencebetweenthehighand lowpressurescreateshighwindsandintensestorms,whichmoveacross therelativelywarmNorthAtlantictowardBritainandnorthernEurope, bringing mild temperatures but high precipitation.At the same time, southernEuropeandtheMediterraneanareahaveloweredrainfall,the easternUnitedStatesmildandwetweather,withGreenlandandnorthernCanadacolderanddrier.Inthenegativephase,thelowsandhighs arebothweak.ThewinterstormsarethenlesssevereintheAtlanticand orientedmoretowardsouthernEurope,meaningmorerainintheMediterraneanareas,morecoldanddryweatherinnorthernEurope,warmer in Greenland and Canada, and cooler and drier in the eastern United States. Since1970,theNAO,withonlytwoorthreebriefexceptions,has beeninthepositivephase.ThishasmeantawarmernorthernEuropeand increasedsnowfallinScandinavia,oroneofthefewareasoftheworld inwhichglaciershavebeenadvancing.ThewintersintheeasternUnited Stateshavebeenwetandmild,whilesouthernEuropehasbeendry,with Alpineglaciersinrapidretreat.Itisatestimonytothedegreeofrecent warmingintheNorthernHemispherethattheiceonGreenlandhascontinuedtodeclineinspiteofthisphaseoftheNAO.Ashifttothenegative phaseisnowoverdue.ThiswouldcoolnorthernEuropeandtheeastern UnitedStates.Butthelongreignofapositivephasehasbeggedanexplanation,andsuggestedthepossibilitythatitislinkedtoglobalwarming. TheNAOmaybelinkedtoarelatedoscillationinthenorthernPacific, butitisnotclearlylinkedtoENSO.Thosewhodoubthumancausesfor therecentglobalwarmingcitetheseoscillationsasevidencefornatural variationsasthelikelyexplanation,buttheNAOisnot,initself,sufficient
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toexplaintheextentofoverallwarmingsince1990(theregionalwarmingandcoolingtendtobalanceeachother).Andnoonecandetermine forsureifapositiveNAOhasbeenaneffect,oracause,ofthewarming. Itseemsthataspectsofbothclimateandweatherareinherentlyrandom.Ifso,nophysicalmechanismmayfullyaccountforoftenabrupt changes.Butplentyofmechanismsatleastinfluenceclimateandweather, and some of these we know very well. In fact, weather forecasting isbasedonsuchknowledge.Weknowtheroleofgreenhousegasesin warmingtheatmosphere.Whatislacking,inalmosteveryarea,issufficientdataabouttheenormouslycomplexsubjectofclimate.Inparticular, weneedmuchmoreinformationaboutoceancurrents.Theidealwould beaverycompletemodeloftheearth’sclimate(calledaGeneralCirculationModel),amodelthatwouldallowfairlyexactpredictionsaboutthe future,givencertaininputs.Wehavemanysuchmodels,butnoneare nearlycompleteenoughtoallowanythingclosetoexactpredictions.For example,wecannotyetmeasurealltheimplicationsofincreasedCO2in theatmosphere,simplybecauseofsomanyfeedbackmechanisms,such asincreasedplantgrowth.Buttheseissuesarebestlefttothenextchapter,ontheroleofgreenhousegases.3
GLOBALWARMING Frequent,rapidclimatechangehasbeenthenormformostofthelast millionyears.Agrowingawarenessofthishasrevealedhowabnormal hasbeentherelativestabilityoverthelasteightthousandyears.Thisstabilitymadeanimportantcontributiontotheriseofhumancivilizations. That the stability may be over has raised justifiable fears over the last two decades.And, unlike in the past, maybe human activities are intimatelyinvolvedwiththependingchanges.Thephrase“globalwarming” hascometosymbolizetheconcern.And,nodoubt,manypartsofthe earth, including all the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, havewarmedoverthepasttwodecadesataratethatisunprecedentedfor theperiodforwhichwehaveinstrumentalrecords.Itseemslikelythat wewouldhavetogobacktotheendoftheYoungerDryastofindwarmingofthismagnitude.Itseemsmorelikelyallthetime,asresearchand model building goes on at an unprecedented pace, that one necessary conditionforthisrecentwarminghasbeentheincreasingquantityof greenhousegasesintheearth’satmosphere.Theincreasehasbeenalmost
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entirelyaproductofhumanaction,mostofallintheburningoffossil fuels.Iwillpostpone,tothenextchapter,theenormouslycomplicated problemofexplainingtherecentwarming,andofmakingpredictions aboutthenextcentury.HereIwillsimplynotetheextentofwarming, andsomeofitsearlyeffects. It is not easy to collect climate data for the whole earth, particularlyoverpartsoftheunderdevelopedworldandovertheoceans.The bestglobalclimatedatawenowhavehasbeencollectedandanalyzed bytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).Byits2001 estimate,theearth’sclimatehaswarmedoverthelastcenturyby0.6C (or1F),withapossible0.2Chigherorlowerthanthisnumber.Since 1990,theclimatehasbeenwarmingattherateof0.2Cperdecade.This mayseemsmall,butitisnot,becausethewarminghasvariedfromarea toarea.Ithaspushedthemeanearthtemperaturecloseto14.4C.Some areasintheSouthernHemisphereevencooledduringthetwentiethcentury,whilethegreatestdegreeofwarminghasoccurredinthehigher latitudesoftheNorthernHemisphere(upto5CinsomeArcticareas). Also, the warming has not been uniform, with the first clear increase between1910and1945,andbyfarthemostrapidwarmingfrom1976 to2005,with1998and2005beingthewarmestyearssincewehave hadinstrumentalrecords(2002wasnextwarmest,and2003justbelow that), and probably the warmest in the last 100,000 years.The record warmingin2005ismoreominousthanthatof1998,anElNiñoyear (seefigure12). Therecentwarminghascausedmorerapidglacialmeltonmost(but not all) mountains, a gradual rise in ocean levels in most parts of the world,andanexpansionoftropicalandsubtropicalclimatezones.The Arctic area has been impacted the most.The warming may have contributed to a near doubling of severe weather events over the last two decades (floods, droughts), although the evidence is not conclusive. Warmer ocean surface waters have very likely increased the intensity of hurricanes.Warming increases the frequency of infectious diseases, particularlythosewithatropicalsource.Itmayleadtomajorshiftsin oceancurrents,includingevenchangesinthethermohalinecirculation. Rapidwarmingwilldramaticallyincreasethepresenthighrateofspecies extinctions.Therecentincreaseintheintensityofperiodicmid-Pacific warming (El Niño) may be one effect of global warming, one with a major impact on climate almost worldwide, with some land areas ex-
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periencing devastating floods, others extended droughts. One estimate of the cost of the unprecedentedly warm El Niño of 1997–1998 was $100billionworldwide,withuptotwenty-onethousandpeoplekilled byfloodsordrought. Theimpactofwarmingvarieswidely,withthecountrieseventually mosteffectedbeingthosewithextensiveareasatorjustaboveexisting sealevel.Eventheriseofuptoalmostonefootinoceanlevels(because ofthermalexpansionandglacialmelt)overthelastcenturyhasalready worseneddeltafloodingincountriessuchasBangladesh.Small,lowislandcountriesaremostfearfulofsuchwarming.Affluentcountrieswill beabletobuilddikesandlevies,andinstallhugepumps,toprotectcoastalcities(amajorityoftheworld’slargestcitiesareatornearsealevel); developingcountriescannotaffordsuchanexpense. Notalleffectsofwarmingwillbeharmfultohumans.Inpart,that willdependonwhereonelives.InCanadaandRussia,forexample,agriculture may benefit, with a northward expansion of crop zones and forests.Somearidareaswillenjoyincreasedrainfall.ThebuildupofCO2 intheatmosphere,whichhasaccompanied,andprobablycontributed, tothewarming,willincreasecropyields.Intemperateclimates,winter
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heatingbillswilldrop,withasavingofenergythatmayexceedtheincreasedcostsforsummerairconditioning. Inanycase,globalwarming,becauseofitspossibleimplications,is nownotonlythemostpressingissueinclimateresearch,buttheoneissuewiththegreatestpotentialimplicationsinallareasofenvironmental studies.Itisanissuethathasinciteddeeppoliticaldivisionsandenduringcontroversy.Thenextchapterwilladdressmostoftheseissues.4
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oday,itisincreasinglyclearthathumanemissionsofgreenhousegaseshavecontributedtoarecentwarminginmostareasoftheearth. Evenmorerapidwarmingisverylikelyduringthiscentury.Unlikethe largelysuccessfulinternationalresponsetoozonelayerthinning,parallel efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases have largely failed. Almosteveryfactorthathasfavoredozoneagreementshasbeenabsent intheseefforts.Althoughitisclearthathumanactionsaffectclimate,the extentofthatimpactisverydifficulttoassess,forsomehumanactions helpcoolaswellaswarmtheclimate.Theeffectsofthepresentwarming, whichsofararemostconcentratedinthehigherlatitudes,arenotfully clear.Itmayalreadybetoolatetoarrestmanyofthelong-termclimate effectsofabuildupofgreenhousegasesthathasalreadyoccurred,leavingonlyadaptiveoptions.Butaboveall,anyeffectiveinternationalagreementstoreducegreenhouseemissionswillhavequitevariedimpacton differentcountries,andamajorimpactonpatternsofconsumptionand howpeopleliveinallhigh-incomesocieties.Theearthcannotsustainits presentpopulationwithoutthecontinueduse,possiblyevenanincreased useinthenearfuture,offossilfuels,whichwillprobablycontinueto supplyupto70percentofallenergyuntilatleast2025.Perhapsmost importantofall,theUnitedStates,whichtooktheleadingainingagreementsonozone-depletinggases,hascomeveryclosetosabotaginginternationaleffortstoreducegreenhousegases. Whateverthecauses,therecentwarminginmostareasoftheNorthernHemispherehasalreadyledtosomeirreversibleeffects.Evenifthe 189
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nationsoftheworldwereabletostabilizegreenhousegasemissionsat 1990levels,theamountofgreenhousegasesintheatmospherewould stillincreaseuntil2100.Andthewarmingtrendwould,becauseofthe timethewell-mixedgreenhousegasesremainintheatmosphereandthe necessarilyslowwarmingoftheoceans(thermalinertia),onlygradually declinetozerooverthenextfewcenturies.
THESCIENTIFICBACKGROUND Recognitionofamajorhumancontributiontowarmingcameonlyrecently.Itwasin1896thataSwedishchemist,SvanteArrhenius,firstarguedthathumanemissionswerecausingwarming.By1910scientists were able to get some early, if inexact, measurements of atmospheric CO2.Speculationsabouttheeffectofhuman-causedincreasesofCO2go backtothehot1930s,butsignificantwarmingintheperiodbefore1940 didnotcontinue.Awarmerthanaverage1930swasfollowedbythree decadesofsightlylowerthanaverageglobaltemperatures.Infact,aslate asthe1970s,manymeteorologistscontinuedtopredictimminentcooling,basedonsuchhumancausesasindustrialpollutants,whichreduce theintensityofthesunlightthatreachestheearth’ssurface.MeteorologistReidBrysonoftheUniversityofWisconsinbecameanearcelebrity forhisalmostapocalypticwarningaboutglobalcoolingandthepossible beginningofanewiceage. Beginningin1956,scientistsonMaunaLoainHawaiibeganmonitoringtheexactlevelofcarbondioxideintheatmosphere,whichdemonstrateditsannualincreasedconcentration.Butwouldthisbeenough to cause significant warming? No one was sure, though the concerns increasedeachyear.Intheveryinfluentialandcontroversial1972Clubof Rome(andMIT)econometricstudyTheLimitstoGrowth,theauthorscited the buildup of CO2 and noted a possible climatological effect. But the reportemphasizedearlyresourcescarcityanddeadlylevelsofpollution, notglobalwarming.However,continuingclimatestudies,somebasedon coresamplesfromGreenlandice,suggestedaclosecorrelationbetween atmosphericcarbondioxideandworldtemperatures. In1975,WallaceBroeckerpublishedapaperinSciencethatpredicted imminent climate change because of greenhouse emissions. He noted the short-lived cooling caused by aerosols, but believed the more extendedeffectofwell-mixedgreenhousegaseswoulddominateoverthe
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long haul. In 1981, James Hansen, chief of the Goddard Institute for SpaceStudies,alongwithsevencolleagues,publishedanarticleinScience inwhichtheyusedasophisticatedmodelandcomputersimulationsto predictthatthegrowingemissionofgreenhousegaseswouldsoonresult in greater climate variability and cause the average global temperature torise.Bythenmoreextensiveresearcheffortswereunderway.Bythe late1980s,widespreadconcernaboutozonedepletionledtorenewed attentiontoatmosphericdangers,whileaseveredroughtintheUnited Statesin1988begantoswaypublicattitudes.Perhapsmostimportant, theglobalclimatebegantowarmatanunprecedentedrate,atleastinrecenthistory.Ironically,sucharisemayhavelargelyreflectedashort-term naturalvariationandnottheeffectofincreasedgreenhousegases,but suchwarminggaveaddedprestigetoearlymodelsthatseemedtopredict justthiseffect.However,itnowseemsverylikelythatthewarmingin the1980sand1990swasarathersuddeneffectofthegradualbuildup oflong-lastinggreenhousegases,enoughovertimetoreverseastableor evencoolingtrendinglobaltemperatures.1 Atpresentthereisahighlevelofuncertaintyabout,andnofullconsensuson,manyofthescientificissuesthatinvolveourclimatesystem. But on some issues the level of uncertainty is small.This includes the ratherfirmestimatesofthepresentconcentrationofcarbondioxideand mostotherwell-mixedgreenhousegases.Whatisnotnearlyasclearis thelevelofclimate-affectingaerosols(materialparticlesordroplets)in ouratmosphere,includingthoseofhumanorigin;theextentofadded vegetativegrowthcausedbyhigherlevelsofcarbondioxide;andtheexactamountofincreasedatmosphericcarbonabsorbedbyvegetationand theoceans.Thatgreenhousegaseshelpwarmtheatmosphereisclear,but howmuchisstillfarfromcertain.Wecannot,atpresent,estimateexactly howsensitivetheclimateistoagivenquantityofgreenhousegases.One wayofestimatingclimatesensitivityistotrytocalculatehowmuchthe climate will respond to a doubling of CO2. Based on a wide range of climatemodels,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC), initsthirdassessment(ClimateChange2001)offeredarangeofpredicted warmingof1.5to4.5C,withitsbestestimateat2.8C.2Earlyindicationsarethatthefourthassessment,duein2007,willnotreduceby muchthisdegreeofuncertaintyaboutsensitivity. Eventheterm“greenhousegases”canbemisleading.Ifonecounts human-synthesizedgases,mainlyhalocarbons(gasescontainingcarbon
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pluschlorine,bromine,fluorine,ormixturesofmorethanoneofthese three halogens), and the large number of molecularly distinct hydrocarbon trace gases that coexist with methane in natural gas, then over ahundredgasesallowthepassageofmostshortwavesolarradiationto theearth’ssurfaceandabsorbpartofthelongwaveorinfraredenergyit radiatesback.Warmedbythisradiation,thegreenhousegasesradiatea partofthisheatbacktothesurface,helpingfurtherwarmsurfacetemperatures.Twoofthemajorgreenhousegases(watervaporandozone) surviveonlyforashortwhileinthetroposphere.Othergasessurvive foryearsandbecomewellmixedintheatmosphere.Thesegases,ledby thebigfour—carbondioxide,methane,CFCs,andnitrousoxide—are whatmostpeoplerefertobythelabelgreenhousegases.Afewofthe raregases,includingmainlyhalocarbons,absorbasmuchasfiftythousandtimesasmuchheat,permolecule,ascarbondioxide,butsofar only ozone-depleting CFCs exist in large enough quantities to pose a major threat.All the well-mixed greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiationthroughoutthemiddleanduppertroposphere,andtoalimited extent in the stratosphere (the“glass” is many miles thick). But many particles, like soot, or droplets, such as sulphates, also absorb infraredradiationandradiateheatbacktothesurface,althoughmost reflectmoreincomingradiationthantheyabsorbfromthesurface,and cool more than they warm. But, in any case, these are“greenhouse” aerosols,andtheyhavetobetakenintoaccountinanyestimateofatmosphericwarming. Withoutinfrared-absorbinggasesandaerosols,theearthwouldbea frozenplanet.Thus,theso-calledgreenhousephenomenaisablessing. Withoutit,humanswouldnotbehere(Marsisanexampleofaplanet withoutsuchgases).Buttoomuchofaheat-absorbingblanketwould meananearthtoohottosustainlife,oreventoleaveanyliquidwater atitssurface(hereVenusisthemodel).Ofallthegreenhousegases,the mostimportantbyfariswatervapor.Itlargelyaccountsfortheearth’s surfacetemperature,andworksasthemainthermostatofglobaltemperatures.Sincewatervaporremainsintheatmosphereforonlyanaverageofninedays,itcannotbecomewellmixed,andthusitsimpactvaries fromregiontoregion.Inhot,humid,tropicalclimates,thewatervapor intheairmayclimbashighas4percent,or40,000partspermillion(in 2006thesecondmostconcentratedgreenhousegas,CO2,wasonly380 partspermillion).Inhumidclimates,theothergreenhousegaseshavea
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proportionatelysmallerroleinwarmingtheatmospherethantheydoin cold,verydry,Arctic-typeclimates,wherewatervapormaybelessthan 1,000partspermillion.Thisinpartexplainswhytherecentwarming hasbeensomuchgreaterathighlatitudes. Themostimportantnecessaryconditionforhigh-latitudewarming hasbeentheenormouswarmingpotentialofmajorreductionsinsnow andicecover.Iceandsnowreflectmostofthelimitedhigh-latitudesolarradiationbackintospace.Meltingofsnowandicealsoincreasethe watervapor,andthisreinforcesthewarming(theincreasedsnowfallthat mayresultcaninpartnegatethiswarming).Atpresent,mostglaciersare retreatingandArcticiceisbothshrinkingandthinning.Onlyinareasof nowarming,orofincreasedsnowfall,areglaciersstableorstillgrowing. In the areas around theArctic, where temperatures in the 1990s were often5Caboveearlieraverages,thepermafrostlineismovingnorthward,withthreatstothestabilityofbuildingsandroadsassoftsoilor bogsreplacethefoundationalice.Possiblymoresignificant,thethawed permafrost,withitsorganiccontent,couldreleaseasurgeofCO2and frozenmethane,bothofwhichwouldjoinwithwatervaportoreinforce thewarming. ManypeoplewonderwhytheIPCCandmostotheragenciesthatdeal withglobalwarmingdonotincludewatervaporintheirlistofgreenhousegases.Theyalsodonotincludeamonglistedaerosolswhatis,by manytimesover,themostimportant—thecondenseddropletsofwater orpelletsoficethatmakeupfogandclouds.Thereasonforthisissimple. Watervaporandcloudsarepartoftheearth’shydrologicalcycle.Theyare internalto,andatthecoreof,ourclimatesystem.Insmallways,humans candirectlyincreasehumidity,butcomparedtotheevaporationofocean waters,oreventhetranspirationofplants,thisisonlyadropinahuge bucket.Thus,climatologiststreatwater,inallitsforms,asadependent variable.Whenthewell-mixedgreenhousegasesincreaseintheatmosphere,theresultingwarmingraisesthelevelofwatervaporandchanges theamountandnatureofclouds.Thus,inclimatestudieswhatoneis concernedwithistheeffectoftheothergreenhousegasesoraerosols on these most powerful regulators of climate.Water vapor and clouds arethusconsideredasfeedbacksfromthewarmingorcoolingcausedby newinputsoftheothergreenhousegasesandaerosols,andparticularly thoseinputsofhumanorigin.Theincreasedwatervaporthatresultsfrom warmingandfromhigherratesofevaporationatleastdoublesthewarm-
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ingpotentialofothergreenhousegases.Itisinthissensethatwatervapor isavitalaspectofallattemptstomeasuretheimpactofincreasesinthe well-mixedgases. Theatmospheredoesnotwarmindirectproportiontothequantity of any greenhouse gas.This is because of indirect effects and numerousfeedbacks.Byconvention,wenowrefertotheeffectofatmospheric gasesandaerosolsonclimateas“radiativeforcing,”orjust“forcing.”If theeffectistoraisetemperatures,itisapositiveforcing.Ifcooling,then negative.Also,theIPCCandmostotheragenciesemphasizenotthetotal amount of forcing by an agent, but the added annual average amount offorcingincomparisontothepre-industriallevel,or1750,andalso thoseadditionscausedbyhumanperturbations,suchasextraemissions ofCO2.Theunitofmeasurementusedisoneofenergy,orthewattsper squaremeter(Wm-2),whichallowsacomparisonbetweentheeffectof addedgreenhousegasesandchangesinsolarinsolation.Becausesomeof themostnumerousaerosols,suchassulfates,reflectandscatterincomingsolarradiation,andthuscooltheclimate,anyincreaseinsuchaerosolshasanegativeeffect.Thus,mostoftheaerosolsthatpollutetheair, andthatcausesmog,havealocallycoolingeffectonclimate.Theydim thesunatthesurface.Accordingtosomerecentestimates,theaverage amountofsolarinsolationoverlandareasdeclinedfrom5to10percent from1950to1990,withamajorcoolingimpactonclimate.Increased greenhousegasesatleastbalancedthisbytheirroleinwarmingtheatmosphere.Since1990,theamountofairpollutionhasdeclinedinmany industrializedareasbecauseofmorestringentcleanairregulations.This hasloweredthecoolingimpactofairpollution.Ironically,themoreeffectivearefuturecontrolsoverairpollution,themorerapidlytheclimate willwarm. Ozoneisauniquegreenhousegas.Mostheatingoftheatmosphere comesfrominfraredradiation,whichiscapturedbygreenhousegases. Butseveralgasesintheatmospheredirectlyabsorb,andareheatedby, incoming,shortwaveradiation.TheseincludelimitedabsorptionbyCO2, NO2,andwatervapor,butmuchmoreabsorptionbyozone—thatmolecularvariantofoxygen.Ozonenotonlyscreensoutultravioletradiation harmfultolifeonearth,butithasavitalroleintheheatbalanceoftheatmosphere.Itsabsorptionofaportionoftheultravioletspectrumwarms theairinwhatwecallthestratosphere(thezoneinwhichtemperatures increasewithhigheraltitudes)andalsointhetroposphere,wherethe
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quantityismuchless.Atthesametime,ozoneabsorbsinfraredradiationfromtheearth’ssurfaceinboththetroposphereandstratosphere.It thuswarmsintwoways.Withoutozone,anditsrole,theearthwouldbe muchcooler.Buttroposphericozone,unlikethatinthestratosphere,is locallyproducedandveryshort-lived.Itisthuslargelyalocalpollution problem.Andbecauseofitsdangerasapollutant,mostgovernmentsare alreadydoingwhattheycantoreduceit. Mostozone,toourgreatbenefit,isinthestratosphere.Eventhere,it absorbsinfraredradiationnotalreadycapturedbygreenhousegasesin thetroposphere.Themorethegreenhousegasescatch,thelessozonecan warminthestratosphere.Thus,oneeffectofmoretroposphericgreenhousegasesisaslightcoolingofthestratosphere,andparticularlythe lowerstratosphere.Muchmoreimportantisthecoolingthatresultsfrom anythinningoftheozonelayer,forthismeansasignificantdropinthe absorptionofbothsolarandinfraredradiation.Thus,therecenthuman impact on ozone thinning has helped balance out the warming from increasedgreenhousegases.Someestimatethisnegativeeffectasbeing ashighas20percentoftheotherwiseexpectedwarming.TheIPCChas chosenamoremodestnumberofaround3percent(orabout-0.15Wm-2, oraboutthesameamountofcoolingasthepositiveforcingbynitrous oxide),andmuchlessthanthewarmingcausedbythehalocarbonsthat havereducedtheozonelayer.Oneofthecomplicationsincreatingclimatemodels,bothtosuggestexplanationsformeasuredchangesupto thepresent,andevenmoreoftentosimulatefutureclimatechange,isthe uncertaintiesposedbyozoneandaerosols.Ifonecannowconfidently predictanearlyrestorationoftheozonelayerandadecreasedoutputof pollutingaerosols,thenthesetwomajordampersongreenhouseforcing willdiminish,andwarmingwillincrease.Butatthesametime,arestorationofstratosphericozonewillrequireareductionofozone-depleting halocarbons,particularlyCFCs,andthiswillcooltheclimate,forallthe halocarbonsarepowerfulgreenhousegases.Increasedozoneatalllevels willincreasetheamountofHO(hydroxylradical),whichhelpsremove methanefromtheatmosphere,andthushelpscooltheearth.Howthese positiveandnegativeforcingsbalanceoutistheproblem,foralmostall theseestimateshaveahighlevelofuncertainty.Itispossiblethatthelack ofsignificantwarmingintheperiodfrom1950to1970,despiterising greenhouse gases, was a product of air pollution and ozone thinning. The resumption of warming in the 1980s, and the dramatic warming
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from1995to2005,mayhavereflectedareductioninairpollution(particularlysulfates),whichfreedtheclimatetorespondmorefullytothe buildupofCO2. Eitherahigherconcentrationofgreenhousegases,orthewarming thatensues,leadstovariousfeedbackeffects.Ourclimatesystemisintricate,withalltypesofinterlinkages,somescarcelyunderstoodtoday. Infact,thetietoozoneisonesuchlinkage.But,byfar,themostimportantlinkageofgreenhousegasesandaerosolsiswithwatervapor andclouds.Increasesintemperatureraisetherateofevaporation.The presentwarminghasalreadyincreasedevaporation,andthustheconcentrationofwatervaporintheatmosphere.Thisisthemostobvious feedbackfromwarming,andsofarasthewarmingisaneffectofincreasedhumanemissionsofgreenhousegases,thenwehaveamajor positivefeedbacktowhatwearedoingtotheatmosphere,orroughly adoublingoftheeffectofthegreenhousegasesalone.Asothergases helpraisetemperatures,wegetmorewatervapor,orthemainwarminggas(upto98percentofthetotalgreenhouseeffect).Thus,thecycle ofwarmingcontinuessolongashuman-causedemissionsofthewellmixedgaseskeeprising(orforthatmatter,solongastheyrisebecause ofnonhumancauses). Butwait.Maybethisscenarioismuchtoosimple.Moreevaporation meansmorecondensation,moreclouds,andmorerainfall,atleastwhen averaged worldwide. All clouds absorb, and reflect, infrared radiation fromthesurface(somebacktothesurface,someupwardintospace), andinthiswayaddtothewarming.Thisistheonlyeffectofcloudsinthe nighttime.Butduringthedaycloudsreflectsolarradiationandhelpcool theplanet.Dense,thick,lowcloudsreflectthemostshortwaveenergy, andbecausetheyarelowandnotmuchcoolerthansurfacetemperatures, theyabsorbfewlongwaves.Thin,highcirruscloudstransmitmostshort waves to the surface, and because they are so cold they absorb a high percentageoflongwaves.Theyhelpwarmtheeartheveninthedaytime. Thismayalsobetrueofthickerhighclouds,fortheyabsorbmorelong wavesthanwarmerlowclouds.Byalmostallmeasurements,theneteffectofcloudsistocooltheearth.Theproblemishowglobalwarming willaffectthebalance.Willitincreasetheirreflectivitymorethantheir infraredabsorption,andthuscool?Orjusttheopposite?Noonetoday cangiveaconfidentanswer,despiteanenormousamountofworkon clouds and numerous complex feedbacks tied to them.That said, it is
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verylikelythatmorecloudswillhaveacoolingeffect,butnothingclose tothewarmingcausedbyincreasedwatervapor. The same heat that evaporates more ocean water can also increase evaporationoverland,andinareaswithbarelyenoughrainfallforcrops, thatcanleadtoextendeddroughts,whichlowerthelevelofvegetation andthusphotosynthesis.Thiswarms.Ontheotherhand,desertification willincreasethereflectivityofland,andthushelpcool.Nooneasyet canmeasureallthesecompetingeffects.Toaddressthesemostobvious feedbacksistosuggesttheenormousdifficultyindevelopingpredictive climatemodels,andthereasondifferentmodelsvarysomuchfromone toanother.Itispresentlyimpossibletogainallthedataneededtotake into account, with any degree of precision, all the climate feedbacks. Andbelieveitornot,eventodaywedonothavethecomputercapacity todealwithallthedata.Themodelsallinvolvesimplificationsandthe compoundingofseveralempiricalassumptions,manywithawidemarginoferror.3
CARBONCYCLES MostclimatefeedbacksinvolveCO2andthecomplicationsofthecarbon cycle.Ofthewell-mixedgreenhousegases,carbondioxideisbyfarthe mostimportant.Itaccountsforabout80percentoftheforcingbythese gases(or1.5Wm-2),andoverhalfofalltheforcingfromwell-mixed gases,ozone,andaerosols.Thisisnotbecauseitscreensinfraredradiationefficiently(itistheleastefficientamongmajorgreenhousegases), butbecauseofitshighconcentrationintheatmosphere.Norisitbecause thehumansourcesofatmosphericCO2areparticularlyhigh,forhumans areresponsibleforonlyabout5percentofthecarbondioxidethatenters theatmosphereeachyear(theyarenowdirectlyorindirectlyresponsible foroverhalfofthemethane),butratherbecauseofthecomplicatedrole itplaysinthebiosphereandthevariousfeedbackstiedtoit. Carbonexistsinsixreservoirsorbins,andmovesamongthematdifferenttimescales.Mostofthecarbononearthissequestered,forlong periods,insedimentaryrocks.Almostalltherocksbeganasdetritusthat felltothebottomofoceans,andgraduallycompactedintosolids,such aslimestone.Someofthiscarbonmayremainsequesteredformillions, evenbillionsofyears.Effectively,itisoutofcirculation.Aboutahalfbilliontonsofcarbonjoinsthisrepositoryeachyear,oronly0.05percent
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ofthecarbonthatiscontinuouslycyclinginandamongtheotherrepositories.Butifthatweretheendofthestory,theneventuallyallcarbon wouldendupinsolidform,andlifeonearthwouldbeimpossible.Thus, inoneofthewonderfulequilibriumsthatmarktheearth,roughlythe sameamountofcarbonenterstheatmosphereoroceanwatereachyear, throughthechemicalweatheringofrocksortheexpulsionbyvolcanoes ofthecarbonburiedinthemantle. Theonlyotherlarge,long-termrepositoryofcarbonisthehydrocarbons in peat, coal, petroleum, and natural gas.This carbon reenters theatmospherebyburning,whetherignitedbyfermentation,lightning, volcanism,orhumanaction.Today,therapidburningoffossilfuelsunbalancestheequilibriumthatnormallyexistsamongtheotherfourrepositoriesofcarbon—theatmosphere,biomass(thebodiesofallliving organisms),soil,andtheoceans.Incomplicatedways,carbonmovesor flowsamongallfour.Itisimpossibletomeasuretheexactamountofcarboninthesereservoirs,butclearlytheoceanscontainbyfarthemost,or aboutfiftytimesasmuchastheatmosphere.Oftheothertworeservoirs, thesoilcontainsmorecarbonthanlivingorganisms,butnotethatmuch ofthecarboninsoilcomesfromdeadvegetation.HumansaddCO2tothe atmospherebyburningfossilfuels.Butalltypesofburning,inthepast largelybiomass(wood,dung),addcarbondioxidetotheatmosphere. Theothertwomainsourcesareplantandanimalrespirationandthedecompositionoforganicmaterial,usuallythroughbacterialactioninsoil orwater.Vulcanismisasmallersource,butavitalpartofthelong-term stabilityofouratmosphereandthusofclimate.Largeamountsofcarbon dioxideleavetheatmospherethroughphotosynthesis,butmostofthis cyclesbackagainthroughanimalandplantrespirationandthebacterial decompositionoforganicmatter,whichfreescarbondioxidefromsoil andoceans.Humanshaveseparatedcarbondioxidefromtheairandused itinmanyprocessesandpurposes,downtothecarbonationofbeverages,butitusuallyescapesbackintotheair.Thechemicalweatheringof silicaterocksremovessmallbutcumulativelyvitallyimportantamounts ofCO2fromtheair.Theoceansandtheairexchangelargequantitiesof carbondioxideattheiroftenturbulentinterface,butunlessanimbalance develops,theexchangeisroughlyequalinbothdirections(overhundredsofyears,withtheslowmixingofsurfaceanddeepoceanwaters, awarmingoceancanincreaseitstotalconcentrationofCO2).Thelarge influxofcarbondioxidefromfossilfuelshascreatedsuchanimbalance
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between ocean surface waters and the atmosphere that the oceans are nowabsorbingmoreCO2thantheygiveout.Itisinthissensethatwe nowemphasizetheoceansasamajorsinkforcarbondioxide.Measuring thedimensionsofthatsinkhasproveddifficult. Sincecarbondioxidecyclesthroughthesefourrepositoriesincomplicatedpaths,itmakesnosensetotalkabouthowlongourcarbondioxideemissionswillremainintheatmosphere.Unlikemethaneandnitrous oxide,whereitissimplyamatterofhowmuchinandhowmuchout, ouremissionsofCO2simplyaddtothetotalcycle,withperturbations allalongthecycle.Onaverage,amoleculeofCO2willleavetheatmosphere,eitherbyabsorptionattheoceansurface,orbyphotosynthesis, inadecade.Butalmostallofthiswillcyclebackagaintotheatmosphere. Onlyasmallpercentagewillfalltothemixinglevelintheocean,where itmayremainonaverageforacenturybeforemostreturnstosurface waters.Evenlesssinkstotheoceanbottom,wheresomewillremainas sedimentarydeposits.Whatistrueisthat,inaboutonehundredyears,if theannualemissionsofCO2fromallsourcesremainatthepresentlevel, anewequilibriumwilldevelop,whichwillmeanstablebuthigherlevels ofcarbonintheatmosphere(andalsoinbiomass,soil,andoceans)and, allelsebeingequal,warmertemperatures.Buttheimpactonwarming willcontinueforcenturies. Probably the most important feedback effect of increased levels of CO2isaspeedupinphotosynthesis,whichwillabsorbatleastpartof the added emissions.This means a growth in total biomass, and thus intheamountofcarboninthisrepository.Evidenceindicatesthatthis ishappeningnow.Almostone-halfofthehuman-causedcarbondioxideemissionseachyeardonotshowupintheconcentrationofcarbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Some have referred to this as the missing carbon.Whatitsuggestsisthatsinks—oceansandmorerapidvegetation growth—haveincreasedenoughtoaccountforthedifference.Thatmore vegetationisamajoraddedsinkisevidencedbytherecent15percent increaseintheseasonalvariationinCO2concentrationsintheNorthern Hemisphere(lowerafterasummerofgrowth,higherbytheendofwinter).Theproblemisoneoflocatingthelargestsinks,andmeasuringtheir increasedabsorptionrate.Onelikelycandidateisnorthernmid-latitude forests,whichhavebeenexpanding. Muchresearchontheinfluenceofextracarbondioxideonvegetative growthhasclarifiedafewissues,butleftmanypuzzles.Inacontrolled
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greenhouseenvironment,growthrateshaverisenby30to40percentin thepresenceofadoubledconcentrationofcarbondioxide.Inanatural environment,theeffectvariesaccordingtocircumstances—nutrientsupply,wateravailability,temperature,lightintensity—andalsofordifferent plants. Stressed plants—nutrient and water deficiencies—proportionallyimprovemorethannormalplants,butstillaccruelessmass.The effectofalargesurgeofcarbondioxideinavegetativeenvironment revealsaninitialsurgeofextragrowth,butthisdiminishesoverafiveyearperiod,andbeyondthatlimitedifanyextragrowth.Theeffects of increased growth rates soon cycle through the carbon cycle—not onlymorebiomass,butmoreorganicdepositsinsoilandwater,more microbialactivity,andalargerreturnofcarbondioxidetotheatmosphere,whichslowlyreducesthenegativeforcingofexplodingplant growth.Nitrogensuppliesentersintotheequationatseveralpoints,for nitrates,whenavailable,fertilizetheaddedgrowth.Chainsoffeedbacks makeanyfinalestimateofthelong-termimpactofenhancedvegetative growth on atmospheric CO2 difficult. Once again, it seems that the increased plant growth will lead over time to a new equilibrium amongthecarbonrepositories,butinthiscaseasomewhatlowerlevel of carbon in the atmosphere than would have occurred without the vegetationsurge.Ifcarbondioxideemissionscontinuetorisebymore than2percenteachyear,thentheeffectwillbeacontinuousupward adjustmentofthepaceofphotosynthesis,andthusanegativeforcing on the climate. No one can estimate how much.This has become a politicallysensitiveissue,fortheUnitedStateswantstoclaimalarge negativeforcingduetoitslandusechanges(morenewforestsorshifts infarmingmethods).Ifanything,recentresearchindicatesthatearlier estimatesoftheincreasedvegetativesink,basedlargelyoncontrolled experiments,weretoohigh. Inthemid-oceans,increasedlevelsofCO2inthewaterdonotseemto havethegrowth-enhancingeffectsonvegetativegrowthobservedwith landplants.Thelimitforgrowthhereseemstobeiron,notcarbon.But oceanvegetationmay,nonetheless,haveacriticalroleinwarming.Inthe mid-oceans,farfromland,theonlylikelysourceofcondensationnuclei forcloudsissulfatesderivedfromthedimethylsulfideemittedbythe limitedamountofplanktonthatgrowsinthesenutrient-starvedwaters. Ifwarmerwatersdecreasethegrowthofplankton,thenthelossofcloud coverwillhelpwarmtheatmosphere.Ifoceanpollutionshoulddrasti-
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callyreducemid-oceanvegetation,andthedimethylsulfideemittedby it, then clouds would diminish and world temperatures would rise to whatcouldbeadisastrouslevel.Thisisoneoftheextremeclimatescenariosthatproducebaddreamsamongoceanographers. Nexttovegetativegrowth,theothergreatcarbonsinkwouldseemto betheoceans.But,assuggestedabove,thisisanequilibratingresponse overtheshortrun.Wehaveratherfirmevidenceofapresentlyincreased oceansink,simplybecauseoftheimbalancecreatedbytheinfusionof extracarbondioxideintotheatmosphere.Solongasatmosphericcarbon dioxideincreaseseachyear,theimbalancewillcontinue,andthusaconsiderableamountoftheaddedcarbondioxidewillbeabsorbedbythe oceans,withthisabsorptioninturninfluencedbytheamountofphotosynthesisthattakesplaceinoceanvegetation.Iffossilfuelconsumption continuestoriseyearbyyear,thesameannualincreaseinoceanabsorptionshouldcontinue,sinceastablenewequilibriumisimpossible.Inany case,the“missing”carbonseemstoindicatethattheincreaseinvegetativeandoceansinkshas,sofar,balancedoffalmosthalfoftheincreased carbondioxideaddedbyhuman-inducedemissions.4
NON-CARBONGREENHOUSEGASESANDAEROSOLS Theotherwell-mixedgreenhousegasesareimportant,althoughnotat thelevelofcarbondioxide.Bymostpredictions,theywillincreaseless rapidly than CO2 in the future.While the level of carbon dioxide was around380partspermillionin2006,methanewasonly1.8parts.But suchisitsgreaterabsorptivecapacity(twenty-onetimesthatofCO2per molecule)thatitstotalimpactis12percentthatofcarbondioxide,or just over 10 percent of the total forcings of all the well-mixed greenhousegases.Thus,methaneisimportantinglobalwarming,andbecoming more so all the time.While carbon dioxide has risen by just over 35 percent since 1800, methane has more than doubled.And a much greaterproportionofmethanederivesfromhumanactivity(innature mostcomesfromorganicdecay,leadingtotheoldnameofswampgas). Atpresent,overathird(37percent)ofhuman-causedmethaneemissions,bymostestimates,comesfromlandfills.Recently,somemunicipalitieshavebeenabletocapturethismethaneanduseitasafuel,but mostsimplyleaksintotheatmosphere.Thenexttwomajorsourcesare farmanimalsandnaturalgasleakage(somefromoilwells).Ruminants,
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with cows by far the most significant, create methane in their unique digestiveprocesses(19percentoftheU.S.total),andcontributealarge share of the manure that creates even more of this gas (9 percent in managedmanuredisposal).InNewZealand,withitshugepopulation ofsheepandcows,methaneexceedsCO2initsgreenhouseeffect.Other sources of methane include emissions from coal mines and from rice paddies(amajorsourceinSoutheastAsia).Itmaybepossibletoreduce thesehuman-inducedsources,butnoteasily.Forexample,weasofyet havenowayofreducing,orcapturing,themethanefrombelchingcows (somescientistsareactuallyexperimentingwithfoodadditivesthatmay lowerthemethaneoutputofcattle),andinmostcasesnogoodsubstituteforlandfills.Onedesirablequalityofmethaneisitsshortlifeinthe atmosphere(onlyninetofifteenyears).Thus,themostrapidmeansof reducingthepresentlevelofgreenhousegasesistocurtailmethane.For example,intheUnitedStatesthemostpotentpresentreductioneffort involvesa1996lawthatrequiresthecollectingandusingofthemethane givenoffbyourlargesturbanlandfills. Thethirdlargestofthegreenhousegasesthathavebeentargetedby internationalagreements(theKyotoProtocol)isnitrousoxide.Itiscomparativelyrare(only0.312partspermillion),butbecauseofitsscreening effectiveness(310timesthatofcarbondioxide),itaccountsfornearly3 percentoftheimpactofallthewell-mixedgreenhousegases.Theincrease of nitrous oxide, unlike methane, has been very gradual (15 percent in thelasttwocenturies),andthehumanimpactslight.Overtwo-thirdsof nitrousoxidederivesfromthebreakingdownofnitratesinthesoil.This activityisincreasedbytheuseofnitrogenfertilizersortheapplicationof manure.Thus,itislargelyanagriculturalproblem,andonenoteasilyremedied(theworldneedsmorefertilizertofeedagrowingpopulation).Lesseramountscomefromautomobileexhausts,ironicallyproducedbythe verycatalyticconvertersthatreduceotherpollutants,andfromstationary motorsandtheproductionofnylon.Indirectly,morenitrousoxideleadsto moretroposphericozone,andinthiswayfurtherincreaseswarming. TheKyotoProtocolinvolvesmeasurementsandtargetedreductions ofthreemoresparsebutverypowerfulclassesofgreenhousegases,hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons,andsulfurhexafluoride.The firsttwoinvolvemanycloselyrelatedgaseswithslightmoleculardifferences.Collectively,thesehalocarbonsdonothavetheconcentrationlevel ofevennitrousoxide.However,thesegasesaredistinctive,andintime
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couldbeverydangerous,becauseoftheirabsorptivecapacity.Manyof theHFCgasescaptureupto11,700timestheheatofCO2,andhexafluoridecapturesupto24,000times.Itisonlythescarcityofsuchlargely human-synthesizedgases(oftenonlyoneortwopartspertrillion)that accountsfortheirminutegreenhouseeffect(lessthan2percent).Itcould bedifferentinthefuture,sincecertainformsofHFChavebecomeamajorreplacement,inrefrigeration,ofCFCs(trueforalmostallrefrigerants forautomobiles).TheseHFCgasesdonotdepletetheozonelayer,but substantialquantitiescouldcontributesignificantlytoglobalwarming. Theirpercentageincrease,beginningwithaverysmallbase,hasledall otherssince1990(over60percent).Thetradeoff,atpresent,seemsto favortheiruse,butthesameprecautionsusedtokeepCFCsoutofthe atmosphereshouldapplytothesegases.TheEuropeanUnionisalready tryingtoreducetheseemissionsbyhalfby2020.CFCsarealsogreenhouse gases, and by far the most important of the halocarbons (they warm more than nitrous oxide). In fact, the only reason that internationalconventionshavenotincludedCFCsastargetedgreenhousegases, despiteUnitedStatesobjections,isbecauseoftheMontrealandLondon Protocolsthatwill,intheory,leadtotheirsuppression. Aerosolsadduncertaintiestoallcalculationsofwarming.Apartfrom water droplets, sulfates seem to be the most numerous and powerful among the particles and droplets in the atmosphere. Note that many aerosols, including sulfates and nitrates, originate in emitted gases, mostlysulfurdioxideandtwooxidesofnitrogen,andestimatesofeach arecloselyintertwinedwitheffortstocontrolairpollution.Allaerosols absorbsomeinfraredradiation,butmostscatterandreflectevenmore shortwaveradiation,thushelpingcooltheearth.Butblackparticles,such asblackcarbon,absorbmoreheatthantheyreflect.Clearly,thetotaleffectofallaerosolsistolowertemperatures,buthowmuchtheylower themisnotcertain.TheIPCCestimatesthatthenetcoolingeffectequals the positive annual forcing for methane (0.48Wm-2), but other estimatesaremuchlowerorhigher.Partofthesulfateeffectisindirect,ora matterofotherfeedbacks.Theseprimarilyinvolvetheroleofsulfatesin providingnucleiforcondensationandcloudformation.Thesevariously modifythenumber,density,andsizeofdroplets,andbymostestimates increasethenegativeforcing,buthereagainestimatesvarywidely,and onlymuchnewanddifficultresearchcanreducetheuncertainties.Afew scientistshaveestimatedthattheindirecteffectsofthepresentlevelsof
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sulfateaerosolscouldcompletelybalanceoffallthewarmingcausedby increasedlevelsofgreenhousegases.Butnotethat,ifthisistrue,then successfuleffortstocontrolSO2pollution(themajorprogenitorofsulfates)coulddramaticallycontributetofuturewarming.5 Wheredoesthisleaveus?Nooneisquitesure,asreflectedinseveral simulatedmodelsofclimatechangesprojectedforthiscentury.Thebest summation of recent research, as analyzed by the IPCC, is reflected in Figure13.Thiscomplicatedgraphoffersthebestestimatesofhowmuch theaddedannualquantityofcertaingases,aerosols,andsolarinsolation, abovepre-industriallevels,addstoeitherwarmingorcooling(radiative forcing).Exceptforsolarinsolation,mostoftheaddedamounts,asstated inwattspersquaremeter,reflecthumanactivities.Theonlyconfidentestimatesinvolvethewell-mixedgreenhousegases,withreasonablyexact
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measurementsoftroposphericandstratosphericozone.Theestimatesfor thevariousaerosolsarenotatallcertain,andfortheindirecteffectof sulfatesnotfirmenoughforanyquantifiableestimate.Thistabledoesnot showtheamountofwarmingduetotheseforcingagents. Thedegreeofwarmingoverthiscenturywilldependuponpatterns ofgrowthanddevelopment,populationgrowthordecline,levelsofpoliticalstability,andmitigatingpolicies.TheIPCC,therefore,initsthirdassessmentin2001,rancomputersimulationsbasedonfourscenarios,or whatitcalledfamilies.Theseincludevariousestimatesforthesevariables (seefigures14and15).Notethatthewiderangeofestimatesdonotso much reflect differences among climate models as uncertainties about political,economic,andculturalchange.TheIPCCendedupwithfour families(calledSpecialReportonEmissionScenariosenvelops),orA1 andA2,andB1andB2.Alltoobriefly,A1andB1assumeaconvergence between developed and underdeveloped societies, or more globaliza-
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tion,butinA1muchlessconcernforcleanandresource-efficienttechnologiesthaninB1(thesustainablescenario).A2andB2assumeavery heterogeneousworld,withoutpoliticalorculturalconvergence,butmore sustainable economic growth and less population growth in B2 than in B1.Figure14includesprojectionstiedtothesefourmodels,butwiththe furthercomplicationthatSRESA1isdividedintothreeparts,onetoreflect acontinuedhighuseoffossilfuels(FI),alowusebasedonmorealternativefuels(T),andabalancebetweenthetwo(B).Furthercomplicatingthis projectionprofilearethreeestimatesfrom1992.Itisnowonderthatsuch projectionshaveconfusedasmuchasinformedmostlayreaders. Allthesesimulationsinvolverelativelysmalluncertaintiesontheforcingcontributedbythemajorwell-mixedgases,buthighlevelsofuncertaintyinmeasuringvegetativeandoceansinks,ontheeffectsofwarming on clouds, and in estimating shifts in the amount and effect of ozone andaerosols.Theyalsoinvolvedifferentestimatesofclimatesensitivity, butwithmostaveragedresultsbasedon2.8C(theestimatedamount ofwarmingcausedbyadoublingofCO2).Representativesimulations for each of the four families lead to an estimated increase of carbon dioxidefromthepresent380ppmtoarangefrom490to1,260ppm. Methanewillvaryfromlevelslowerthantodaytoarounddoublethe presentamount.Nitrousoxidemayriseasmuchas50percent.Given the sizeable increase of carbon dioxide in all trajectories, the climate willcontinuetowarmeveninthemostfavorablecircumstances.How much depends on the mix of variables, while predictive success dependsonhowwelltheseclimatemodelsfitreality.ThesameSRESseries underlietheIPCCpredictionsofoceanrisebetweennowand2100,as showninfigure15. One of the problems with almost all earlier climate models is that they do not account for what has long seemed an anomaly. Since the beginning collection of satellite observations in the 1970s, the warmingofsurfacetemperatureshasnotseemedtoaccompanyacomparable warming throughout the troposphere.This does not make sense, for tropospheric temperatures should have risen at roughly the same pace assurfacetemperatures.Thisseeminganomalyhasbeenexploitedbya minority of scientists, and by opportunistic politicians, who continue todenyanyappreciablewarmingoftheatmosphereandcontinuously cite stable or even declining tropospheric temperatures to prove their point. In 2005 several scientists, working with both the data received
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1.0 A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2
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fromweatherballoonsandfromsatellites,foundwhattheybelievetobe errorsintheformulaslongusedtocalculateatmospherictemperatures. Thedatawaswrong.Whencorrected,thetroposphereisindeedwarming.Butgiventhepoliticallychargeddebateaboutglobalwarming,these calculationswillnotsoonappeasecritics.ItisworthnotingthatascientificpanelappointedbytheBushAdministration,whichisusuallyso suspiciousofexpertopinion,hasendorsedthesenewfindings. Thisleadstothebigquestions.Howmuchwillitwarminthiscentury,andhowhighwilltheoceansrise?Therange,fromthirty-fiveIPCC scenarios,isforawarmingby2100offrom1.4to5.8C(or2.5to 10.4F).Theextremesreflectvariationsinestimatesofclimatesensitivity, and are reflected only by the light shading in figure 14. Note that eventhelowestestimate,whichisnotalikelyoutcome,involvesmore warmingthanoccurredinthetwentiethcentury.Evenitassumesarise
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inCO2fromthepresent380to450ppm.Thesealevelisexpectedto risefrom0.09to0.94meters(3.55to37inches).Thetemperaturerise willbegreateroverlandthanoveroceans,upto40percentabovethis averageinnorthernregionsofNorthAmericaandAsia,andbelowthis averageintropicalareasandinpartsoftheSouthernHemisphere.The warmingwillbegreaterduringthenightandinthewinter.Allscenarios includeanoverallincreaseinprecipitation,butbecauseofregionalvariancessomeareaswillhavelessrainfall.Givenpresenttrendsandthelow probabilityofanyrigorousandenforceableinternationalagreementto limitgreenhousegases,thelowerpredictionsarenomorelikelythanthe extremelyhighones.Themedianpredictionshavereceivedmorepublicity,orarounda3C(5.4F)riseintemperatures,andasealevelrise around0.35meters(14inches).Thegreatestlossoficeandsnowcover willbeinthefarnorth,withrealisticprospectsofanopenArcticOcean andmajorglacialmeltonGreenland.InAntarcticatheinterioricecould increasebecauseofhigherlevelsofsnowfall,buticeshelvesaroundthe Antarcticapeninsulaarealreadydecliningandwillcontinuetodoso.6 Sincetheyfloat,theirmeltingwillnotraiseoceanlevels,buttheirdecline couldallowamorerapidmovementseawardofcostalglaciers,morecalfingalongthecoast,andthusmoreoceanrise. WhattheIPCCwillnotpredict,atpresent,arediscontinuous,irreversible, and extreme climate events.These include such events as the meltingoftheWestAntarcticaicesheet,adrasticreductionincoralreefs orcostalmangroves,orenoughoceanwarmingtokilloffmostocean krill (basic to the food chain of almost all ocean mammals). But the onemosttroublingevent,andonenotoutoftherealmofpossibilityif ourclimatewarmsasmuchas5C,areshiftsin,oreventheendingof, thethermohalineoverturningofoceanwatersouthofGreenland,which could lead to abrupt and major shifts in the earth’s climate, including eventheinitiationofanewiceage(seechapter7).
THEINTERNATIONALRESPONSE The climax of the early concern about warming came in 1988.With strong United States support, the United Nations Environment ProgrammeandtheWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationestablishedtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.TheIPCCwas,andremains, theleadinginternationalagencyinvolvedwithclimatechange.Itsimpact
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hasbeenimmense.Atleasthalfoftheinformationinthisbookderives fromitsreportsandstudies. Since 1990, its counterpart in the United States has been the U.S. GlobalChangeResearchProgram(USGCRP),aninteragencypanel.The USGCRPdoesnotdirectlycarryoutresearch,butinsteadprovidesfunds (anannualbudgetfrom$1to2billion)forclimate-relatedinquiryby severalgovernmentagenciesorinuniversities.Asof2002,theUSGCRP became one of two climate-focused agencies under a new GeorgeW. BushAdministrationreorganization.UnderthebroadrubricofaU.S.ClimateResearchProgram,theUSGCRPcontinuesthemostbasicscientific inquiry,butitsharesitsfundingwithanewClimateChangeResearch Initiative,whichfitswelltheBushAdministration’scautiousandoften hostile stance toward much of the existing climate research establishment.TheClimateChangeResearchInitiativewillcarryoutcomparative, and policy-oriented, studies of climate change and possible strategies to deal with it. Clearly, the new agency is more oriented to business interestsandtopoliciesthatofferlessthreatstoeconomicgrowth.For severalyears,theUSCCRPhasdirectedmuchofitsresearchtotheeffects ofwarming,andhowtodealwithitinvariousregions.Thisseemsto reflectanimplicitadmissionthathumansmaynotbewillingorableto domuchtoarrestacontinuedhigheremissionofgreenhousegases.We willhavetoadapt,forwewillnotbeabletomitigate. The IPCC helped initiate international efforts to deal with global warming.Withalwaystoolimitedfunds(contributedbyUnitedNations member nations), it has coordinated scientific evidence on warming, gained a high level of credibility for its cautious publications, and in amajorreportin1990offereditsfirstbutverytentativeassessmentof howhumanactivitiesinfluencedorforcedwarming.Inthefirstofwhat would,asof2001,bethreeassessmentreports,itofferedvariouspredictionsofpossibleclimatechangesoverthepresentcentury.Sincethe worldwide research effort has expanded in both quantity and quality, thefourthassessment(duein2007)shoulddecreaseseveraloftheuncertaintiesthatstillhauntfuturepredictionsofwarming.TheIPCCdata helped create widespread concern over warming. Soon the announced goalofmostindustrializednationswassomeinternationalconvention ortreatythatwouldleadtoastabilizationorreductioningreenhousegas emissions.SeveralEuropeancountriesbeganunilateraleffortstoreduce suchemissions.Amongaffluentnations,theUnitedStateswasmostcau-
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tious. Resistance to any binding treaty came from the underdeveloped countries,andattimesfromtheformerSovietbloc.Forthesecountries, someoverwhelmedwithinternationaldebts,poverty,andevenhunger, thecostofreducinggreenhouseemissionshadtotakesecondplaceto policiesthatpromotedeconomicdevelopment,includinganincreased useoffossilfuels. In1991,informedbytheevercautiousworkoftheIPCC,representativesofvariousnationsbegannegotiationsonatreatytolimitgreenhouseemissions.AttheUnitedNationsConferenceonEnvironmentand Development(usuallyreferredtoastheEarthSummit)inRiodeJaneiro in June 1992, delegates from 179 countries completed a Framework Convention on Climate Change, but not without some diluting compromisespushedbytheUnitedStates.Thiswasonlypartoftheambitiousagendaofthismuchpublicizedconference,butpossiblythemost significant.Italsoadoptedaconventiononbiodiversity,consideredbut didnotagreeonaUnitedStates–backedplantopreserverainforests,and accepted,inprinciple,anagreement(notabindingtreaty)onabroad internationalagendafordealingwithnotonlyarangeofenvironmental issues, but also human rights and third-world economic development (the industrial countries pledged, but so far have not delivered on, an annualassistancepackageof$125billionayeartoaidunderdeveloped countries). AtRio,theAmericandelegatesweremuchconstrainedbytheconcerns of different affected groups at home. Citing the lack of conclusivescientificevidencethathuman-causedemissionsmadeupthemajor sourceofwarming(astandardthatwillnotbemetsoonifever),the UnitedStatessupportedthefinal,possiblyalmostmeaninglesstreatythat committednationstothereductionofgreenhousegasesandsetavoluntarytargetforindustrializedcountriestoreducesuchgasestothe1990 levelby2000.Incontrasttoalmostallotherindustrializedcountries,the UnitedStateswouldnotacceptanybindingtargets.Itwassoonobvious toanyrealistthattheUnitedStatescouldnot,orwouldnot,beableto meetthetargetfor2000.Infact,despiteabundantresearch,numerous publishedstudies,andpiouspromises,therateofU.S.greenhousegas emissions,whichhadactuallydeclinedinthelate1970sasaresultof new energy policies and oil scarcities, went up after 1992, at a much higherratethaninthetwoprecedingdecades(atfirstapproximately1.3 percentayear).AtleasttheUnitedStatesfavoredloweremissionsinprin-
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ciple,andledtheworldinresearchintonewtechniquesorstrategiesthat might,intime,allowsuchareduction.Asforthedevelopingcountries, theycouldnotingoodfaithevencommittothenonbindingtargets.In manyofthesecountries,andparticularlyinChina,thesubsequentrateof growthinemissionshasexceededthatintheUnitedStates. ThestorydidnotendatRio.Thosewhosignedtheclimateframeworkcontinuednegotiationsinfollow-upconferences.Periodically,the signatoriesoftheRioFrameworkmetinConferencesoftheParties,or COPS.InBerlin,in1995,thedelegates,inspiteofthefailuresofarto meettheRiotargets,decidedtouptheante.Bythenitwasclearthata stabilizationofemissionsatthe1990levelwouldnotdomuchtoretard therateofwarmingoverthenextcentury.Thus,theyacceptedaneedto reduceemissionsasmuchaspossiblebelow1990levels.Tothisend,they proposedbindingprotocolsthatwouldcommitindustrializedcountries tospecifictargetsanddeadlinestoachievethem.Thissettheagendafor the Kyoto Conference of 1997. Here the United States dominated the planning,andVicePresidentAlGorewonlaurelsforhelpingshapethe finalagreements.TheClintonAdministration,atleastinitspublicstatements,wasmoreenvironmentalfriendlythanthetwopriorRepublican administrations, and not quite as responsive to the various economic intereststhatwerethreatenedbyanymandatedreductions(thisincluded suchpowerfulplayersaselectricalutilities,coalandpetroleumproducers,andautomobilefirms,pluslaborunionsthatrepresentedworkersin suchindustries). Delegates of the U.S. government, after helping to craft a plan that cateredtoasmanyAmericanconcernsaspossible,signedtheKyotoProtocol(asupplementtotheRiotreaty,andthus,ifratifiedbytheSenate, asbindingasanyotherlaw).NotonlydidtheSenatenotratifythistreaty, but in an early advisory vote unanimously opposed its submission to theSenateuntilunderdevelopedcountriesacceptedquotas(greenhouse emissions are increasing more rapidly in these countries).The Clinton Administration never submitted it to the Senate, so remote were any chancesofapproval.In2001thenewBushAdministrationannounced thattheUnitedStateswouldnolongerbeapartytotheKyotoProtocol. Thisseemedtodoomit,eithertoafailuretogainenoughnationalratificationstogointoeffect,ortovirtualfutilityifitdidwintheneeded countries (industrialized countries with a total of over 55 percent of worldwideemissionshadtoratifybeforeitwentintoeffect).InBonn,in
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2003,Russiaofferedatentativepromisetoratifytheaccords(thiswould havemetthe55percentgoal),andinNovember2004itfinallyratified (thisallowedtheprotocoltogointoeffectinFebruary2005).AtBonn, themembercountriesfurtherdilutedthegoals.Theydroppedproposed sanctionstopunishnoncomplyingcountriesandincreasedtheamount oflandusechangesthatcouldcountagainstemissiontargets.Bysome estimates,thegoals,ifmet,wouldonlyreducegreenhouseemissionsin theratifyingcountriesto1percentbelowthe1990levels.Withoutmajor reductionsinemissionsbytheUnitedStatesandChina,thetreatywill notstopthepresentannualincreaseinworldwideemissions,butatbest willonlysloworslightlyretardthepresentrateofgrowth.Also,ratificationdidnotremovethewidespreadinternationalbeliefthattheUnited Stateshad,ineffect,sabotagedtheclimatecontrolagenda. TheKyotoProtocolhastakenontremendoussymbolicmeaning.Too often,peoplehavevieweditasthesolutiontotheproblemofgreenhouse emissionsandevenglobalwarming.Atbest,itisasmallbeginning.Everyoneconversantwiththemagnitudeoftheproblemrealizedthatthe Kyototargetswerethefirst,andeasiest,installmentonwhathadtobea continued,evermoreexpensivereductioningreenhouseemissionsand intheconsumptionoffossilfuels.Forexample,Britainhasprojected,as anationalgoal,thereductionofCO2emissionsby60percentby2050. Itwouldrequireatleastsuchareductionbyallindustrializedcountries, andatleastsomereductionsbyChinaandIndia,tomoveclosetowhat theIPCChasprojectedasthelowestpossiblelevelsofCO2(490ppm) and of global temperature increases (1.4C) by 2100. It is impossible toestimatethecostsandtheeconomicdislocationsrequiredtoattain suchgoals,particularlyinahigh-energy,high-consumption,growthorientedeconomysuchasthatoftheUnitedStates.Itisquitepossible, assomehardheadedeconomistspointout,thatitwouldbelessexpensivetocopewithwarmingasitoccurs,andallowthefreemarketto maketheneededfutureshiftsinenergyuseasthecostsoffossilfuels mount.Suchastrategymaymakegoodsenseifthelowerestimatesof climate sensitivity, and of projected warming, prove correct. In fact, thisisthelikelypolicythathigh-incomecountrieswillfollow.Whatit doesnotdoisofferasolutiontolow-incomesocieties,whichdonot havetheabilitytomakesuchaccommodations.Italsoevadestherisk of extreme climate shifts if temperatures warm as much as 5C, and thusviolateswhatmanyenvironmentalistsrefertoastheprecaution-
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aryprinciple(whensomuchisatstake,policiesshouldbebasedon worst-casescenarios). Untilwithdrawalin2001,theUnitedStates,evenwithoutanearly prospectforSenateapproval,didtakefrustratingstepstomeettheterms oftheKyotoProtocol.TheearlyAmericanopennesstotheKyotoagreementrestedonseveralconcessionstotheAmericandelegates.TheProtocol committed thirty-nine industrialized countries to specific goals, goalstobemetfrom2008to2012,orwhatwouldleadtoanaverage annualreductioninemissionsof5percentbelow1990levels.Forthe UnitedStates,thekeyculpritinsuchemissions(35percentofthetotal bythesecountries),thegoalwasemissions7percentbelowthe1990 levels,basedonsixlistedgreenhousegasesorfamiliesofgases.Given thesteadygrowthafter1990,andprojectedemissionslevelsrunning25 percenthigherby2010,thisgoalwouldhaverequiredfortheUnited States a reduction to approximately 31 percent below anticipated levels.This was an intimidating target, and little suggests anything close tocompliancewithsuchanemissionstargetwaspossibleevenhadthe BushAdministrationremainedonboard. Thestatedemissionsgoalswereabitdeceptive.Tomakeitsgoalmore bearable, the United States insisted on international emission trading (theUnitedStatescouldbuysurplusreductionsattainedbyothercountries, such as in the rapidly declining economies of the former Soviet bloc countries).The agreement also contained provisions that allowed acountrytogetcreditfortheassistanceitorprivatefirmsgavetohelp underdeveloped countries reduce emissions (called the Clean DevelopmentMechanism,orCDM),allowedsharedreductionprogramsinvolvingtwoormorecountries(animportantpriorityoftheEuropean Union),andprovidedforabalancingoflandusechanges,suchastree planting,againstemissiongoals(bysomeinterpretationsintheUnited States,itmighthavebeenabletofulfillalmosthalfofitstargetsbyemissiontrading,foreignaid,andlandusechanges,thusdrasticallycutting theneededreductionsinemissions).Thesevariousqualifyingprovisions alarmedmanycountries.SomeEuropeannationsfearedthattheUnited Stateswouldlargelynegotiateorbuyitswayoutofdomesticreductions. OnlyatCOPS6,attheHagueinNovember2000,didthepartiesfinally begintosettheexactrulesfortradingandsharingquotas,butasof2005 theyhadnotsetclearlimitsonhowmuchofaquotaacountrymaymeet bytheseswappingandpoolingprovisions.OnlyatCOPS9,inMilanin
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December 2003, did the delegates finally work out final plans for the Clean Development Mechanism, with the first registered aid programs goingintoeffectin2004. The BushAdministration repudiated the Kyoto accords for various reasons,includingthepoliticalconstituenciesthatbackedtheRepublican Party.Atfirst,PresidentBushchallengedtheconclusivenessofscientific data that confirmed the human impact on warming. In 2002, after a requestedandhurriedevaluationbytheNationalResearchCouncil,the sameadministrationconcededthehighprobabilityofhuman-induced warming,butstillbelievedtheKyotoaccordsunrealisticandtoothreatening to needed economic growth in the United States. Note that the announced refusal to ratify the Kyoto accords did not cancel the U.S. commitmenttothevoluntaryreductionsrequiredbythe1992ConventiononClimateChange.Thus,theUnitedStateshascontinuedtosubmit verydetailed,andhonest,emissionreportseachyear,anditusuallysends moredelegatestoCOPSthananyothercountry(itslargedelegationto COPS9facedalmostuniversalcriticismbecauseofBushAdministration policies).AtCOPS11inMontrealinlate2005,Americandelegatestried toblockevenanydiscussionofnewrevisionstotheConventionof1992, or of new strategies beyond Kyoto. In 2003, the BushAdministration gained promises from most corporations for a voluntary reduction of greenhouseemissions,perunitofgrossdomesticproduct,by18percent by2012,butatpresentgrowthratesthiswillnotreducetotalemissions, andwillmeanfewchangesbecauseashifttowardlowercarbonfuelshad alreadyloweredgreenhouseemissionsperunitofGDP(1.7percenteach yearafter1990). In2006theUnitedStatesisstillcommittedtofindingthetechnologiesthatwillallowfeweremissionsofgreenhousegasesinthefuture, possibly by capturing and sequestering CO2.The BushAdministration correctlynotesthat,despiteallthepromises,fewotherindustrialcountries have met the quotas set at Kyoto (see figure 16).At a combined meetingofCOPS11andofthecountriesthathaveapprovedtheKyoto ProtocolinMontrealinDecember2005,thefirstdetailedassessmentof progresstowardtheKyotogoalsfor2012wasinmostrespectsaconfessionoffailure.Althoughtotalgreenhouseemissionsbythesecountries haddeclinedby5.9percentbelow1990levels,almostallthereduction reflectedtheeconomiccollapseinRussiaandeasternEurope.Inallthe othermembercountriesgreenhouseemissionshadrisenby9.2percent,
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2000 North America
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Fig. 16. CO2 emissions and Kyoto targets: NorthAmerica, European Union, and Japan.(UnitedNations,GlobalChallenge,GlobalOpportunity,17.)
with small prospect of these countries coming close to the Kyoto targetsby2012.Eventheseemingsuccessstoriesinsuchcountriesasthe UnitedKingdomandSwedentoooftenreflectedtheeasyachievement involvedinupgradingantiquated,coal-firedsteamplants.Thus,theestimatedgreenhousegasemissionsforEurope,Japan,andtheUnitedStates in2010willbe17percenthigherthanin1990. In 2003, two senators, John McCain and Joseph Lieberman, forced a Senate vote on an amendment to an energy bill that would have requiredtheUnitedStatestoreducegreenhouseemissionsto2000levels by2010andto1990levelsby2016(theyeventuallydroppedthesecond andmuchmoreintimidatingtarget).Astheyexpected,thisamendment lostintheSenate(andwasnotapartoftheenergybillfinallypassedin 2005),butitrevealedagrowingconsensus,evenamongcorporateleaders,thattheUnitedStateswouldhavetoreduceitsgreenhouseemissions, particularlyCO2.7 Oneemergingtechnologicalfix—thecaptureandstorageofCO2—
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mayallowtheUnitedStatestogainaleadershiproleinreducinggreenhouseemissions.Sinceinthenearfuturefossilfuelswillcontinueasthe mainsourceofelectricalgeneration,anymajorreductionofCO2emissionsdependseitheronmuchmoreefficientenergyproduction(such asconversiontonaturalgas)orsomewaytokeeptheCO2outofthe atmosphere.Three countries have already begun capturing and storing CO2underground,inwell-cappedgeologicalstructures.Forcommercial purposes,mostcountriesalreadycapturesomeCO2.Theproblemisstorage.Atpresent,themostfeasibleofthesearethegeologicalformations from which we have extracted oil and natural gas. In some cases, the CO2capturedfromsteamplantsor,evenmorecheaply,fromnaturalgas processing can be injected into oil wells to enhance the recovery rate, thusinpartpayingforthecostofsuchcaptureandstorage.Thecapture, transportation(bypipelines),andstoragewilladdtothepriceofelectricity,butatacostmuchlessthanthatfordevelopingrenewableenergy bywindorsolargeneration.Otherpossiblestorageoptionsarepumping itintodeepoceans(whichpromiseaveryslowleakagetothesurfaceand backintotheatmosphere)orinabandonedmines(whicharedifficultto protectfromleakage).8
MITIGATION Whatcanhumansdotoavoidtheworst-casewarmingscenarios?Inone sensetheanswerissimple—reducetheemissionsofcarbondioxideand othergreenhousegasesandincreasethevegetativesinksforcarbondioxide.Achievingsuchgoalsmaybeallbutimpossible.Presentglobaltrends allwaragainstanyearlyreductionofCO2.Globalenergyconsumptionis risingat2percentannually,andintheall-importantdevelopedcountries, whichuseover50percentofthetotal,by1.6percent.Itisrisingmost rapidlyinAsiaandthePacific,orat4.6percentannually,withChinathe greatestconcern.Theglobalaveragewouldbemuchhigherifitwerenot fortheproductivitydeclinesintheformerSovietbloc,whereenergyuse hasdeclinedby4.6percentannuallysince1990,butmaysoonbeginto increaseonceagain.Ifpresenttrendsinenergyuseshouldcontinueuntil 2100,theworldcoulduseuptoathirdoftheestimatedstorehouseof availablefossilfuels,andalloftheconventionalsourcesofoilandnatural gas.Thus, mitigation strategies require major shifts in production and consumption, and could involve high costs and diminished consump-
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tioninaffluentcountries,andlowgrowthorevendecliningincomesin poorcountries. TheIPCC,inits2001assessment,hasalargevolumeofdataonall aspectsofmitigation(ClimateChange2001:Mitigation),whichonlydocumentsinelaboratedetailthechallengesfacingthepresentcenturyifitis tolowergreenhousegases.TheIPCChastriedtoprovidelikelycosts,in moneyandinshiftsinthegrossdomesticproduct,forvariousmitigation strategies,andhasforthefirsttimetriedtoconsiderthemajorequity issuesthataccompanyeachstrategy.Justreadingthislongbookinvites pessimism.Onefeelsthatthepoliticalobstaclesaresoimmensethatthe nationsoftheworldwilldoverylittletoreducewarmingoverthenext fewdecades.Thewealthycountrieswillindeeddoagreatdealtofind waysofcopingwithwarming,leavingthepoorercountriestobearmost oftheburden.9 Onecriticalissuerevealsthemagnitudeofthechallenge.In1996,the lastyearwithanythingclosetofirmdata,theworldreleasedaround6 billionmetrictonsofcarbonintotheatmosphere,andbymostestimates itreleasedatleast6.5billionin2003.Thisisoveronetonforeachperson,peryear(seefigure17).Ifpresenttrendsinpopulationgrowthand carbonusecontinue,thiswillriseto9.8billiontonsin2020.Ofthe6
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Fig.17.Carbonemissionsfromfossilfuelburning,1950–2003.(Worldwatch,Vital Signs2005,41.)
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billion tons in 1996, the industrialized countries were responsible for 64percent,oroverthreetonspercapita,sixtimesasmuchpercapitaas indevelopingcountries.TheUnitedStatesaloneemitted1.463billion tons,oralmost25percentoftheworldtotal(andfully35percentofthe totalamongindustrializedcountries).Iftheworldshouldmeetthemost optimistictargetforCO2levelsby2100(490ppm),thenitwouldhave toreduceannualemissionsto3billiontonsofcarbon,orlessthanhalf asmuchasin1996.Becauseofpopulationgrowth,thiswouldmeana reductionbythree-fourthsonapercapitabasis.If,inbehalfofequity, thepresentdevelopingcountrieswereallowedmoreleewayforincreased energyuse,andthuswereabletocutcarbonemissionsbyonlyone-half percapita(almostalltheaddedpopulationwillbeinthesecountries), thenthemostaffluentcountries,liketheUnitedStates,wouldhaveto reducetheircarbonusebyupto90percent.Inotherwords,theywould havetodecarbonizetheirenergysystems. Such a worldwide reduction would benefit more than climate. It woulddiminishairpollutionandextendthedatewhenmostavailable fossilfuelswillbeexhausted,andthusallowmoretimetofindsubstitutes. But are such reductions possible? If not, the lowest estimate of warming(1.4C)maynotevenbearemotepossibility.Notethatthefirst reductionswillbeeasiest.Infact,theancillarybenefitsofsuchreductions couldmakethemcosteffective.IntheUnitedStates,thebestwayofpromotingsuchreductionswillinvolveissuesotherthanclimate,whichhas onlyrecentlymobilizedintensepublicconcern.Promotingsuchgoalsas cleanair,improvedhumanhealth,andlessdependenceonimportedoil maybethebettercatalystforaction. Anymitigationwill,aboveall,involvepoliciesintheUnitedStates (foradetailedanalysisofAmericanenergypolicies,seechapter4).As othercountriesalmostgleefullypointout,theUnitedStatesandChina arethekeyculpritsinrecentincreasesingreenhousegases.Anddespite concern,research,andpromises,theUnitedStatesispresentlynotreducing,butstillincreasing,itsannualoutputofCO2,evenasafewwestern European countries have stabilized or reduced such emissions. For the firsttimeinadecade,theemissionofcarbonfellintheUnitedStates in2001,duetoasharpdeclineinindustrialactivityandaverywarm winter,butroseagaininthenextthreeyearswitheconomicrecovery. From1990to2001,carbonemissionsroseby17percent.TheUnited States,bythemostconservative(EPA)estimate,isresponsibleforatleast
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20percentofallgreenhousegasemissions(thePresident’sCouncilon SustainableDevelopmentsetstheAmericanfigureat22percent).Ifall thepeopleoftheearthreleasedasmuchcarbonpercapitaintotheatmosphereasAmericans,theannualtotalwouldmorethanquadruple,and theannualrateofgrowthinatmosphericcarbondioxidewouldprobably moveupfromapproximately2percentayeartoover7percent(theincreasewasanunprecedented3percentin2003).Thiswillnothappen, cannothappen,forbefore2100,duringthelifetimeofafewwhoare alivetoday,theatmosphericconcentrationofcarbondioxidewouldapproachalevelthatwouldseriouslyendangerhumanhealth.Thiscreates adilemma,forclearlythepeopleintheunderdevelopedordeveloping parts of the world, who burn only one-twentieth as much energy as Americans,aspiretothelivingstandardsoftheWest,anddonoteasily accepttheadmonitionthattheymustattainsuchstandardsinenvironmentallysafeandmorecostlyways.WhynotemulatetheWest,follow thesamepathofleastresistanceinresourceuseandgrowth?(Theyare alreadyfollowingthispath,butarenotveryfaralongit.) AsaresultoftheRioandKyotoaccords,theUnitedStatesestablisheda nationalClimateChangeActionPlan(CCAP).Thiswastheimplementing toolforthestillunratifiedKyotoquotas.Butitdidnotreceiveevenhalf itsneededfunding.OverandoveragaintheCongressdeniedadequate fundsforthisprogram,deceitfullyjustifyingthislackofsupportbythe claimthatithadnotyetratifiedtheKyotoProtocol.Infact,therewas never a large and powerful public demand for lower emissions, while well-organized lobbyists from negatively impacted corporations were very successful in Congress. Officially, before the BushAdministration endedourparticipation,theUnitedStatesprofesseditsfullintenttomeet thequotasetfor2010–2012.CCAPthussettargetsforemissionsthat even exceeded the mandated reductions, and worked to get voluntary reductionsinemissions(theBushAdministrationhascontinuedthiseffort).ByCCAPaccounting,suchvoluntaryagreementsreducedemissions belowwhattheywouldhavebeenotherwise.Mostmajorreductionsso farhaveinvolvedcost-effectiveshiftstomoreefficientenergyuse,with the most important dovetailing with mandated changes in air quality. Presently,BushAdministrationofficialsrightlyapplaudU.S.leadershipin developingnewtechnologies,andthecountry’sroleintransferringsuch tounderdevelopedcountries.Aslateas2000,CCAPofficialsstillargued thataspectrumofstudies,newtools,andplannedincentives(suchastax
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breaks,taxpenalties,andtheimpositionofquotas)wouldfinallydothe trick,andthisby2012.ButitsmandatedreportstotheConferenceofthe Partieswere,ineffect,aconfessionoffailure.Otherfactorssupporting moreenergyusesimplyoverwhelmeditswork,anditisdifficultforan observertotakeseriouslyitsprojectedreductionsinthefirstdecadeof thenewcentury(2001to2011),eveniftheUnitedStateshadremained apartytoKyoto. Other questions loom ahead. Given the failure, so far, of most industrializedcountriestomoveclosetotheKyotoquotas,willunderdeveloped countries be willing or able to reduce greenhouse emissions? BecauseofU.S.insistence,thethreeCOPSafterKyotomovedtowardtargetsforunderdevelopedcountries.Butnotveryfar.AtCOPS11in2005, manydiscussionsinvolvedfrustratingeffortstogetIndiaandChinato accepttargetsforgreenhousegasreductions.Atpresent,theeffortisto helpsuchcountiesgainthetechniquesneededforanaccuratesurveyof existingemissions. Evenifthemoredevelopedcountries,withlessthanafourthofthe world’spopulation,shouldmeettheKyotogoals,thetotalamountofCO2 mightstillclimbatclosetothepresentrate,orwithinadecadeataneven higherrate.Thisisbecauseoftheaspirationsandpresentgrowthefforts ofsuchdevelopingcountriesandregionsasIndia,China,andmuchof SoutheastAsiaandLatinAmerica.Sucharetheimmediateproblemsof airandwaterpollutionintherepublicsoftheformerSovietUnionand formerSovietbloccountriesineasternEuropethattheycannotatpresentmakegreenhouseemissionsahighpriority,althoughsomepollution controlmeasureswillalsoreducesuchemissions(intotal,thesecountriesemitalmost15percentofallcarbon).Inthelastdecade,theyhave drasticallyreducedsuchemissions,notsomuchbecauseofpolicybut asaresultofrapiddeclinesinproductivity.Finally,thecountriesofsubSaharanAfricaareonlynowmakingatransitionfromwoodasthemain fueltocoalandpetroleum,andaremuchtoopoortoexpendanyfunds tocurtailstilllimitedgreenhousegasemissions.Itisasoberingfactthat, today,allthecountriesofsub-SaharanAfrica,collectively,emitonlyoneseventhoftheCO2emittedbytheUnitedStates.10 Thus,thedilemma.Isthereanywayforthree-fourthsoftheworld’s populationtoescapepovertyandmovetowardlivingstandardscomparabletothoseintheindustrializedworldwithoutfollowingthesamedevelopmentalpathsalreadytakenbythosecountries,includingthesame
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evolutionofenergyusefromwoodtocoaltopetroleum?Largelybecause ofnewtechnologiesandpopulationgrowth,theuseoffossilenergyhas increasedbyuptofivehundredtimessince1800.Fortheunderdevelopedcountriestomovetowardparitywithwealthycountriesinliving standards,unlessmagicalnewtechnologiesappear,theywilleventually havetoconsumefossilfuelsattheexistinglevelofwesternEurope,ifnot oftheUnitedStates.Inapproximateterms,theywillhavetoconsume fifteen times as much total energy as today.This is impossible. Energy resourceswillnotallowsuchahighlevelofglobaluse.Iftheindustrializedcountries,withalltheirwealth,andtheirleewayforreducinggreenhouseemissions,shouldinsistthatunderdevelopedcountriesacceptthe samerestrictionsonincreaseduse,thenitwouldseemtobeinaposition ofdoomingtheirpeopletoperpetualpoverty.Noonehasananswerto thisproblem,althoughasasubstituteforananswereveryonetalks,in vague and ambiguous platitudes, about possibilities for“sustained development.” China alone may insure the continued rise of greenhouse gases. It planstodoubleelectricalgeneration,andpossiblyalsotheconsumption ofcoal,by2020.By2002itstotalcoalconsumptionexceededthatinthe UnitedStates(althoughnotonapercapitabasis).Chinahasterrible,and worsening,airandwaterpollution,ofatypethatendangershealthand contributestoahighermortalityrate.Itisconcernedabouttheseimmediate,pressingproblems.TheUnitedStatesmaygainamarketinChina fornewenvironmentaltechnologies.Butnoneofthesewillhalttherapid growthinfossilfuelconsumption,andwithit,asaninevitableeffect,the riseinCO2emissions.India,withapopulationnowatoverabillion,will confrontmanyofthesameproblemsasChina.Greenhousegasessimply cannothaveahighpriorityinsuchcountries. Atpresent,itseemsincreasinglyunlikelythatevenamajorityofthe affluent,industrializedcountrieswillmeettheirnowdilutedKyotogoals. AlthoughnotgoalsfortheUnitedStates,theBushAdministrationhasannouncedcontinuingeffortstoloweremissions.Itisnotclearhowmuch Congress,andbehindthatthelargerpublic,willbewillingtopayfor measuresneededtoreduceCO2andmethaneemissions,ortopursuethe possibilitiesofundergroundstorageofcarbondioxide.11 Oneencouragingsignistherecentoutpouringofbooksandarticles aboutglobalwarming,bothintheUnitedStatesandinEurope.In2006 notopicwashotter,andthelevelofpublicawarenessneversohigh.Many
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writers,andafewmovieproducers,haveboughtintotheworst-casescenarios,andaddedanapocalypticurgencytotheirjeremiads.AlGore,so longalonelyprophetcryinginthewilderness,isnowtheauthorofa well-receivedbook,whichhasledtoamovieofthesamename:AnInconvenientTruth.Extremeweathereventshaveaidedhiscause.And,ofcourse, eventheworstpredictionsmaycometrue.Maybetheearth’sclimateis approachingatippingpoint,withrapidandirreversiblewarmingleadingtomassiveextinctionsoreventheendofmoderncivilization.After all,allthegreatcivilizationsdevelopedonlywiththeclimatestabilitythat followedtheturbulentshiftsduringtheWisconsinglacier.Concern,even fear,maystimulatethetypeofcostlyshiftsthatwillberequiredtolower the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.The problem is that, like so many environmentalpredictionsofthepastthatturnedouttobewrong,these extreme scenarios may be either mistaken or premature. Even if catastrophicshiftsdooccurduringthenextfivehundredyears,thepredictionsmayquicklylosepubliccredibilitywhenverylittlehappensinthe nearfuture.Eveninaperiodofwarming,coolcyclesmayrecurandlast foradecadeormore.Whatisneededisafullerpublicunderstandingof thecomplexityoftheissues,andthewillingnesstotakeneededstepsthat willhavemajorimpact,andvisibleresults,onlyforourgrandchildren.If anythingisclear,itisthatnopolicychoicesinthepresentwillhavevery muchtodowiththewarmingnowtakingplace.Humanswillhaveto copewithit,andpossiblymakechoicesthatwillleadtosomethingclose toclimatestabilityinahundredyears.12 The buildup of greenhouse gases reflects not just more emissions, butalsoalackofequilibrium.Theearthissimplynotabsorbingenough CO2 to maintain a balance.This involves the sinks described earlier in thischapter—vegetationandtheoceans.Clearly,areaswithlittlevegetationabsorblittle,andthosewiththemostdensevegetation,suchasrain forests,absorbthemost.TheUnitedStateshastriedtomeasure,andemphasize,nottotalemissions,butnetemissions,particularlyofCO2.Thus, iftheUnitedStatesemits1.65billionmetrictonsofcarbonpercapita, anditsforestsandothervegetationabsorb0.20billiontons,thenitsnet impactisonly1.45tons.Thedifficultyhereisfirmmeasurements.The leewayforalargersinkisnotlargefortheUnitedStates,butmuchlarger intropicalareaswiththereplantingofclearedrainforests.TheUnited Stateshopestogaincreditsforreforestationeffortsabroad.Treesarethe singlemostconcentratedsinkforCO2.Thisismosttrueforyoung,rap-
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idlygrowingtrees,lesssoformatureforests.IntheeasternUnitedStates, reforestationofabandonedfarmlandcontinuedthroughoutthetwentieth century,morethanbalancingacontinuedlossoftreesingrowingurban areas.Butanincreasingshareoftheserestoredforestsareapproaching maturity, and thus absorbing less, not more, CO2. Even though urban Americansmayfeelthattheyarehelpingreducegreenhouseemissions byplantingafewtrees,theeffectissotinyastobealmostinconsequential,orevennegativeiftheydriveagas-guzzlingsportsutilityvehicleto pickuptheseedlings.Butnoonedoubtsthatthemassivecuttingofrain forestsisaddingtothegreenhouseproblem,eventhoughexactcalculationsofhowmuchisimpossibletomake.Itmightseemdesirabletoclear cutmatureforestsandthenreplant.Notso.Thecarbondioxidegivenoff bythestumpsandrootsoftheharvestedtreeswouldmorethancompensatefortheabsorptionofyoungtrees. Whatdoesthefuturehold?Nooneknows.Anymajorshiftinnonhuman sources of warming could drastically modify present predictions. Certain natural impacts on warming are inherently unpredictable.The energyfromthesunisvariable,inpartbecauseoftheeleven-yearsunspot cycle. By most estimates, a small contribution to warming in the recent past has been due to greater solar insolation.Another powerful natural variable is volcanic activity. Super volcanoes push sulfates, and dust, into the stratosphere. Unlike tropospheric sulfates, these do not quickly return to the surface, but can remain for up to two or more years.Onepowerfulvolcanocanlowerglobaltemperatures1Cormore foratleastayear,ormorethanaddedemissionshavewarmedtheearth overthelastcentury.ThelastsuchsupervolcanowasPinatuboin1991. Onenecessaryconditionforthesurgeofglobaltemperaturesinthelate 1990swastheabsenceofanysupervolcanoes.13 ThewiderangeofIPCCestimatessimplyreflectsacontinuingproblemwiththewholeissueofglobalwarming.Despiteagrowingbodyof research,mostofthepredictionsaboutthenextcenturyareverycautious,notprimarilybecauseofcontinuinguncertaintiesinthescientific area,butbecauseofthedifficultyofpredictingpatternsofpopulation andeconomicgrowth,thedegreeofconvergenceinlivingstandardsbetweenrichandpoorcountries,andthepoliticalwilltoadoptmitigating policiestoreducegreenhousegases.Onlyoneconclusionisalmostbeyonddoubt.Temperatureswillrise.Howmuchisthequestion.Willthe increaseofgreenhousegasesraisethemeanglobaltemperatureby2.5
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or10.4Foverthenextcentury?Willtheoceansriseby4or36inches? Thecomputersimulations,theclimatemodels,sofaryieldsuchdiverse possibilities,largelybecauseofthedemographic,economic,andpolitical variablesbuiltintodifferentmodels.Andthedifferencehasmomentous implications.Ifonetakesthehigherfiguresineachcase,theearthisfacingwhatcouldbeamajorcatastrophe.Ifoneisoptimisticandbelieves thathumanresponsesandalowclimatesensitivitywillresultinthelowerestimates,thenitfaceswhatmaybeasignificantbutmanageableproblem,onethathumaningenuitycansolvewithoutmajordisruptions.The highestimatesalmostmakeitimperativethatthenationsoftheworld immediatelyinitiatecostlypoliciestoreducegreenhouseemissions.As acomponentofaprecautionarypolicy,eventheriskofsuchhightemperatures should motivate major control efforts by affluent countries. Yet,ifthelowerestimatesaremorelikelytobecorrect,thenunderdevelopedcountries,inparticular,shouldcontinuetodevotealltheirefforts to economic growth and pollution abatement, with small concern for greenhouseemissions.Thelowestimateswouldalsoallowthepeopleof theUnitedStates,nowenjoyingthegreatestconsumptivecornucopiain humanhistory,tofeastabitlongerwithouttoomanypangsofguilt.
PARTFIVE
ENVIRONM E NTALPOLICIE S AND PHILOSOP HIE S Sofar,Ihavetriedtosurveythemajorenvironmentalproblemsfacing humansinthiscentury.Intotal,andfromaworldwideperspective,they areintimidating.Butonepositivefactoristhelargenumberofpeopleconcernedaboutthem,thethousandsofnongovernmentalorganizationsthat havesoughtpolicestodealwiththeproblems,andthedegreetowhich committedenvironmentalistshavealreadywonbroadpoliticalsupportand, in many cases, effective governmental responses.Abetting such activism hasbeenalivelydebateabouttheproperphilosophicalandethicalgroundingforenvironmentalpolicies.Inchapter9,Iconsidertheroleplayedby Americanenvironmentalistswhohavechosentoworkforreformswithin thepresentpoliticalandeconomicsystem.Forlackofabetterterm,Irefer tothemasreformenvironmentalists.Somecallthem“liberal,”whatever thecontentofthatloadedlabel.IntheUnitedStates,suchreformershave beenverysuccessfulattheleveloffederalpolicy,ifnotalwaysatthelevel ofgovernmentalachievement.Thus,Iendthischapterwithasurveyofthe officialenvironmentalpolicyofthefederalgovernment. But some of the most committed and passionate environmentalists havenotbeenhappywithmildprotestandreform.Ithasnotbasically alteredapoliticalandeconomicsystemwhichtheybelieveisthesource ofanenvironmentalcrisisthatissteadilyworseningdespitestopgapreforms.Theyhavealsoengagedinalivelydebateoverbroad,philosophical issues.Somehavetakentheiradvocacysofarasdeliberatelawbreakingor violentactivism.Inchapter10,Itrytointroducereaderstosomeofthe debatesoverenvironmentalphilosophyandtosomeofthemostactivist groupswhohavetriedtoimplementradicalagendas.
9
RE FORM ENVIRONM E NTALISTSAND AM E RICAN ENVIRONM E NTALPOLICY
M
ost Americans who have become involved with environmental issues have sought reforms through the present political system. Somehavedevotedmostoftheirefforttosingleissues,suchaswilderness protection, or pollution control, or the protection of biodiversity. Theyhavethusfoundedandsupportednongovernmentalorganizations committedtosuchgoals.But,intime,suchspecializedconcernshaveled toabroaderenvironmentalconsciousness,ortowhatonemightdescribe asanAmericanenvironmentalmovement.Suchreformenvironmentalistshavebeenverysuccessfulevenwhentheyhavebeendissatisfiedwith the degree of governmental support for environmental improvement. Mostfederalenvironmentallegislationreflectstheirinfluence.
HISTORICALPRELUDE Concernsabouttheenvironmentare,onesuspects,asoldashumanselfconsciousness.Allhumanshaveasenseofbeautyandwonder,andthus havealwaysrejoicedinthemoreawesomeorpleasingaspectsofwhat surroundedthem.Theyall,attimes,haveknownthedangersofthelarger world, or that which was usually beyond their control.They suffered floodsanddroughts,heatandwintercold,earthquakesandrarevolcanoes.Eventheearliestfarmers,likelaterones,shedbittertearsoverthe crops washed from the hillsides, the soil rendered useless by erosion, thedenudedwoodlandsthatnolongersuppliedfuel,thefishandgame madescarcebytoomuchhuntingorfishing.Always,theenvironmental 227
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problemsthatmostconcernedpeoplewerethosethatmostdirectlyaffectedtheirwelfare.Thisisstilltrue,buttodaypeoplehaveamuchbetter understandingofthecausesofproblems,haveinformationaboutmore distantdangers,havemorepowerfultoolsforalleviatingthreats,respond tothepressureofenvironmentalorganizations,andturnmoreoftento legislationtoeffectchanges. Our awareness of an environment, of that which surrounds us, is usuallyquiterestricted.Essentially,itiswhatwecanseewhenwelook aroundus,pluswhatwehaveseenfrequentlyandcanthereforeeasily resurrect from memory. It is our home, our workplace, our village or town,ourregionofacountyorstateornation.Fromreadingortravel, we may have images of other places, even distant places, but they are notourplace,ourhome.Theyaretheenvironsofotherpeople,always tosomeextentalien.Becauseofhighlyspecializedproductionandextensivecommerce,wemaydependforourlivelihoodondistantplaces, butwelackintimateimagesofthem.Ifwemovefromplacetoplace,we endupwithimagesofmanylocalplaces,andalsoenduptosomeextent withaconfusedidentity. In the past, the immediate surroundings of people had to provide themtheresourcestostayalive:food,clothing,andshelter.Inhuman history, the vast majority of people have had to spend almost all their time and energy to make a living.They have had no alternative but to viewwhatisaroundtheminfunctionalterms.Thisdoesnotmeanthat theydidnot,onoccasion,enjoybeautifulvistas,butinthestressoflife theyoftenoverlookedtheestheticblessingsoftheworldaroundthem, orwhatsomerefertoasnature(asifhumansarenotapartofthenatural world).Theyweremuchmoreawareofthepainful,frustratingaspects oftheirworld,orthoseaspectsthatimpededtheireffortstogainalivelihood,orthoseaspectsthatcausedthemtosufferfromcoldoroppressive heat,frombirdsthatdestroyedtheircrops,fromweedsthatinfestedtheir gardens,frompoisonoussnakesthatthreatenedtheirlives,frominsects thatstung.Sooften,lifewasaconstantstruggletogainenoughcontrol overone’senvironstostayalive.Thus,whatisarounduswasrarelyvaluedforthepleasureitaffordedatthemoment,butonlyasitsupported instrumentalgoals. Today, a concern for a range of environmental issues that reach far beyondourprimarysurroundingsisaluxuryofpeoplewholiveinhighenergy,high-consumptivesocieties,whohavemuchleisuretime,who
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donothavetoworryallthetimeaboutbasicnecessities.IntheUnited States,itwassuchpeoplewhoformedlateinthenineteenthcenturythe firstorganizationstoalleviatethreatstosomeaspectsoftheenvironment. ButtheconcernsstretchbacktosoonafterthefirstEuropeansettlement, whenpeopleincoastalcitiessoonlamentedthelackoftreesforfuelor theshrinkingyieldofnearbygame.Bytheeighteenthcentury,naturalists inbothEuropeandAmericawerefascinatedbyAmericanfloraandfauna, andalsobyitsoftendramaticlandscapes.Estheticconcernsjoinedeconomicones.Amateurnaturalists,suchasDavidThoreau,wereearlypreservationists.Landscapepaintersjoinedpoetsincelebratinganuntamed nature,orwhateveryonewouldlaterrefertoaswilderness.Economist HenryC.Careyanticipatedmostoftheconcernsofcontemporarybioregionalists,whileGeorgeMarsh,attheendoftheCivilWar,wroteas devastatingacritiqueofthehumanimpactonlandscapesandclimateas anycontemporaryenvironmentalist. Botheconomicandestheticconcernslaybehindthefirstorganized environmentalmovementsinAmerica.Bymovement,Irefertoagroup of people, however diverse, who join together in pursuit of common goals,howeverlimitedinscope.BeforetheCivilWar,largeandprosperous farmers joined in agricultural clubs, in part to find better ways to careforsoilandpreventerosion.BoththewondersofYellowstone,and itspotentialforaprofitabletouristbusiness,ledtoourfirstnationalpark in1872.By1880agrowingnumberofAmericanswereshockedbythe rapidandrecklessexploitationoftimber,firstinthewhitepineforestsof theupperMidwest,theninthepineforestsoftheSoutheast.Somepursuedanacademiccareerinforestmanagement,andsoughtpublicsupportforwhattheyobservedinEuropeandcalledscientificforestry.Their concerns lay behind the first forest reserves, created in the otherwise undistinguishedadministrationofBenjaminHarrisonin1888.Thiswas thebeginningofournationalforestsystem,withtheprimarypurpose beingconservationandarationaluseofourforests.By1900,conservationwasthe“in”word,withTheodoreRooseveltconveningthefirst nationalConservationCongress,withforestsstillthecenterofattention, followedbymineralsandfossilfuels.Asalreadynotedinthechapteron biodiversity,Rooseveltalsosetasidethefirstwildlifereserve.1 Thetwooldestofpresentenvironmentalorganizationsbeganinthe 1890s.Theyboth,atthebeginning,hadasinglepurpose,buttodaythey embracealmostallenvironmentalissues.ThepresentNationalAudubon
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Society can claim priority, although not as a continuing organization. The firstAudubon Society formed in 1886, grew too rapidly for easy management, and lapsed in 1888. In 1896, a group in Massachusetts, largelywomen,wereoutragedatthecontinuedkillingofbirdstoprovideplumesforwomen’shats,andtheyformedalocalAudubonSociety to boycott such a frivolous and immoral exploitation of birds.Within three years, it had expanded into fifteen local societies. In 1899 these societies supported a privately published magazine, Bird Lore, which in 1935becamethepresentAudubonMagazine.In1900,thesestilllargelyNew Englandsocietiesbeganacontinuingtradition,aChristmasbirdcount. In1901thegrowingnumberofsocietiesformedanationalconventionandin1905acorporation,theNationalAudubonSocietyforthe Protection ofWild Birds andAnimals. It won its first major legislativevictoryin1910,whenNewYorkbannedthesaleofallplumes.In itsearlyyears,theSocietyprimarilyworkedtoprotectbirds,andhad animportantroleinthedevelopmentoftheFishandWildlifeService. Sincethe1960s,ithasbroadenedthescopeofitsconcernstoencompass almostallenvironmentalissues,andin2003itlistedoverfivehundred localchapters. The most famousAmerican naturalist, John Muir, helped form the SierraClubin1892.Muir,achildofScottishimmigrantstoWisconsin, visitedCaliforniaandfellinlovewiththeSierraNevadamountains,and particularlytheYosemitearea.Foryearshehikedhisbelovedmountains, oftenalone,andcommittedhimselftopreservingthemfromhumandevelopmentandexploitation.He,morethananyoneelse,gainednational parkstatusforYosemitein1890.Inthefolkloreofenvironmentalism,he isoftencontrastedwithconservationists,suchasGiffordPinchot,who supportedarationaluseofAmericanforests,nottheirpristinepreservation.Butthepurportedconflictisexaggerated.Muirwasindeedcommitted to the preservation of great scenic treasures, not for what they producedinthewayofconsumergoods,butfortheirimpactuponthe human spirit. He knew thatAmericans would continue to burn wood and build wooden homes. In fact, he relished his own campfires.The rational use of timber was preferable to its wasteful exploitation.The goalsofconservationandselectivepreservationweremorecomplementarythanconflicted.ButforhisbelovedSierras,andforYosemite,hewas bitterlyopposedtomajorhumanalterations.Hefoughtforyearstoblock theHetchHetchyDamandReservoir(waterforSanFrancisco)onthe
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Tuolumne River at the north ofYosemite Park, and died soon after its completionin1914. ThefirstSierraClubwasagroupofmenwhobecamedisciplesof Muir.Somewerewealthy.Theyformedtheirneworganizationbothto preservetheSierrasandtoenjoythem.Thecluborganizedhikesintothe mountains,somelargeenoughandsowellprovisionedastocompare toAfricansafaris.EventothisdaySierraClubchaptersaredistinguished bytheirfrequentoutings.Muir,unlikesomelaterwildernessadvocates, wantedpeopletocomeandadmirehismountains.TheearlySierraClub builttrails,andevenroads,intothemostscenicareas.Itwaslongafter Muir’sdeaththatclubmembersrealizedthatthrongsofhikers,orroads fullofautomobiles,couldlovehismountainstodeath.Sierrachapters expandedfirstinCalifornia,thentotheRockiesandthroughoutmuchof theWest.ThefirstontheEastCoastcameaslateas1950.ByWorldWar II,theSierraClubwasbecominganall-purposeenvironmentaladvocacy organization,butitstilltooktheleadinwildernesspreservation.Oneof itsclosecollaboratorswastheWildernessSociety,formedin1935,with anotherfamousenvironmentalistandwildlifeexpert,AldoLeopold,as oneofitsfounders.Other,primarilysingle-purposeenvironmentalorganizationsweretheNationalParksConservationAssociation,formedin 1919, and the General (later the National)WildlifeAssociation, establishedin1936andatfirstlargelycommittedtotheprotectionofspecies importantforhuntingandfishing.2 Inthe1920sand1930s,economicissuesdominatedAmericanpublic policy,whileafter1939WorldWarIIwasallimportant.Thus,thefocal environmentalissuesrelatedtothedepressionandwar.Inthe1930s,the mostfocalissuewaslanderosion,fromwindandwater.Thisledtoenduringandeffectiveconservationlegislation(seechapter3),whilesome marginallandspurchasedbythefederalgovernmentsupportedanewsystem of state forests and parks. In the war, recycling of scarce resources becameanecessity,withstrongpublicsupport.Butotherconcerns,such as air and water pollution, usually yielded to the one overwhelming goal—winningthewar.
FIRSTFRUITS A new era began shortly afterWorldWar II.A range of developments madeenvironmentalconsciousnessanimperative.Gradually,formerco-
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lonialdependenciesgainedindependenceinbothAfricaandAsia.New medical advances spread to the underdeveloped world, and assured a populationboom.This,alone,addedunprecedenteddemandsonbasic resources.InNorthAmericaandEurope,andsoonalsoJapan,adualdevelopmentaddedevenmoredemandsonresources.From1950to1970, the United States, and to a lesser extent, western Europe, experienced a baby boom.This joined an economic boom, first in NorthAmerica, but by 1960 also in a reviving Europe. Rising incomes and consumptionmeantasteadilygrowingdemandforbasicresources,particularly energy,adramaticincreaseinwasteproducts,andincreasedpollution.In theUnitedStates,from1950to1970,agriculturalproductivitydoubled, and soon a green revolution spread to all parts of the world. Gains in yieldsdependedmoreandmoreonchemicals—fertilizers,insecticides, fungicides,andherbicides.Organicchemicalssupportedtheswitchfrom metalstoplastics,fromcottonandwooltosyntheticfibers.From1950 to1970,intheUnitedStates,thepopulationexpandedby37percent, incomes by 50 percent, automobiles by 100 percent, and energy use by100percent.Motorvehicles,andwhatisneededtomakethem,fuel them,andsupplythemwithroads,haveplacedgreaterpressuresonthe environmentthananyotherconsumerproduct. Asearlyasthe1950s,agrowingnumberofcriticsbegantohighlighttheenvironmentalcostsofexplodingpopulations,particularlyin Asia,Africa,andLatinAmerica,andofeconomicgrowth,particularlyin NorthAmericaandEurope.Theseconcernsexpandedinthe1960s,and led to the first boom in environmental legislation in both Europe and theUnitedStates.Theawarenessofenvironmentalproblems,andtheresponsetothem,climaxedinthe1970s,orwhatmanynowrefertoasthe environmentaldecade.Withthisconcerncameanewarrayofenvironmentalorganizations(atleastahundred,largeandsmall,intheUnited States),andexpandedagendasandamoreradicalposturefortheolder organizations, such as the Sierra Club and theAudubon Society.These nongovernmentalsocietiesmobilizedthepublic,lobbiedeffectivelyfor newlegislation,andlitigatedincourtstoinsureenforcementofexistingenvironmentallaws.Ineachdecade,thefocalconcernsshifted,with air and water pollution the one constant, but with atomic fallout and threatstobiodiversityadominatingconcerninthe1960s,energyshortagesandathreatofworldhungerinthe1970s,ozonelayerdepletionin the1980s,andglobalwarminginthe1990s.3
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RACHAELCARSONANDSILENTSPRING In retrospect, most historians date the beginning of the modern environmentalmovementintheUnitedStatestothepublicationofRachael Carson’sSilentSpringin1962.Itwasmorethanasymbolicbeginning.The bookhadenormousimpact,notonlyonpublicperceptionsbutonthe focusofsubsequentscientificresearchandgovernmentalregulations.It cameatanopportunemoment.Intheverymidstofwidespreadpublic anxietyovernuclearfallout,andintheyearoftheCubanMissileCrisis, Carsonsuggestedthattheearthfacedanequalthreatfromthewidespread andindiscriminateuseofnewlysynthesizedorganicpesticides—insecticides,herbicides,androdenticides.Inonlythreedecades,theunleashing oftheatomandthechemicalrevolutionhadopenedanewandominous era in the human impact on the natural world, or potentially a more destructiveimpactthanfromallhumaninnovationssincetheoriginof Homosapiens. Carson,anaquaticzoologist,aformeremployeeoftheFishandWildlifeService,andagiftedauthor(herbookofadecadeearlier,TheSeaAround Us,becameabestseller),wroteinthelastyearsofherlife,forshewould dieofcancerinearly1964.Hercentralthesis,oneshepresentedwith verveandpassion,wasthathundredsofsyntheticchemicals,thosethat didnotexistuntilhumanscreatedtheminlaboratories,posedasilent, insidious,andstilllargelyignoredthreattothesurvivalofmanyforms oflifeonearth.Intheperspectiveofwhatbecameclearmuchlater—the threatposedbysynthetichalogencompoundstotheozonelayer—this insightwasevenmorepropheticthansherealized.Shelimitedherwarningtopesticides,andmorespecificallytotwofamiliesofinsecticides— chlorinated hydrocarbons (DDT, Aldrin, Chlordane, Endrin, Lindane, Methoxychlor, Dieldrin,Toxaphene) and organophosphates (Parathion and Malathion)—plus herbicides (two trichlorophenoxy acids, 2,4-D and2,4,5-T).Herwarningsaboutthewidespreadthreatofherbicidesto bothplantsandanimalssetthestageforthedebate,soonafterherdeath, aboutAgentOrange(oneformulationoftheaboveherbicides)whenthe UnitedStatessprayeditwholesaleinVietnam. WhatCarsondidnotdowassuggestacompletebanonanyofthese pesticides,atleastnotwithoutfurtherscientificstudies,solongascompanies took proper care in their manufacture and users applied them carefullyatalocallevel.Whatsheemphaticallydenouncedwasthewide-
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spread aerial application of such toxic chemicals (it was their toxicity thatmadethemeffective),oranyusethatallowedthemtospreadover largeareasorrunoffintostreams.Itwassuchaerialsprayingthatled toasilentspring,atleastinoneortwotowns,becauseofthemassive killingofbirds.Itwassuchleachingofpesticidesintothegroundand streamsthatthreatenedallmannerofgoodaswellasbadinsects,fish, criticalsoilorganisms,andecologicallyessentialplants.Heraccountsof massivekillsofbirdsandfishwerecompelling,evenwithoutanexact explanationofthemechanismsatwork(shedidnotanticipatethelater discoveryofhowDDTweakenedtheeggshellsofmanybirds,andthusat timessheincorrectlyattributedthefalloffinreproductiontochemically inducedsterility).Shecorrectlyemphasizedthehighconcentrationsof suchchemicalsinthefatofanimalsthatwereattheendofafoodchain, for in successive predations the concentrations increased. She believed thatseveralofthesepesticideswerecarcinogens,andthusadirethreat tohumans.Buthereherevidencewasanecdotal,forshedidnothavethe scientificdatatobeveryspecificaboutthenatureofthisthreat,orhave any way of determining what threshold quantities pose a human risk. Carsondidnotwanttogobacktoearlierandchemicallysimpleinsecticides,suchasarsenic,butinsteadlamentedthealmostcasualuseofthe neworganicchemicalsbecauseofthemistakenbeliefthattheyposedno threattohumansandanimals.Thefactthattheyworkedinternally,inthe tissuesofthebodyandinalteringenzymesandhormones,madethem insidious.Thustheneedforherwake-upcall. Pesticideskill.Thisistheirrole.Theyareinherentlydangerous,asany farmerormostanyhousewifeiswellaware.Evenusewithinahousefor thespotkillingofinsectsorspiderscanposehealththreatsifonedoes nottakeprecautions.Carsonwasnotprimarilyconcernedwithsuchlimiteduse,unlessthechemicalsescapedintothelargerenvironmentand thuspollutedtheairandwaterusedbythelargerpublic.Whatshewas mostconcernedaboutwastheuseofsuchpesticidesinagricultureand forestry,andinthecontrolofcarriersofdiseasepathogens.Herewasthe widespreadspraying,orwhatshe,intypicallanguage,usuallyreferredto aschemicaldrenching.Ineachcase,shewadedintoanareathatposes alltypesofperplexitiesanddilemmastoday.Pesticideswereanecessary conditionforthesurgeofpopulationafterWorldWarII,fortheymade possible the food production and disease prevention required for over 6 billion people.Without the continued use of pesticides, along with
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chemical fertilizers, it will be impossible to sustain the present world population,letalonethe9billionexpectedby2050.Pesticidesarejust one among many ways that humans have altered and controlled the worldaroundthem.Therisksareveryhigh.Carsonperceivedthisbefore mostpeople. Modernagriculturedependsoninsectandweedcontrol.Toamore limitedextent,sodoesmodernforestmanagement.Inthepast,humans usedhandsorhoetosubdueweeds,andpluckedbugsandwormsfrom vegetablecropsbyhand.Thislabor-intensiveagriculturesurvivesinsome underdeveloped countries, but with an enormous cost to living standards.Justasmachinesreplacedhandlaborinplowinglandandharvestingcrops,sochemicalshavereplaceditintheprotectedgrowthofcrops. Althoughorganicfarmersargueotherwise,Idonotbelievethereisany waybacktoachemicallyfreeformofagriculturewithouteitherasacrificeofpresentyieldsormuchhigherlaborcosts. TheneworganicinsecticidesthatcameintouseduringWorldWar IIseemedagreatblessingforfarmers,andforforesterswhoneededto controltheusuallyalieninsectsthatdamagedourtrees.Theywereinexpensiveandseemedmuchsaferthanolderarsenic,zinc,andsulfurinsecticides.But,asCarsonpointedout,theysoonposednewproblems. Many insects quickly developed an immunity to new insecticides, requiring, at first, higher doses, and then the substitution of new chemicals.And the massive use of insecticides killed off beneficial insects,includingformerpredatorsofthetargetinsects,orpollinatinginsects,orattimestheverybirdsthathelpedkeepinsectsunder control.Soon,farmersfeltliketheywereonatreadmill,withnostopping.They still face this problem.And, as Carson made clear, safety was always a problem, not only for the farmers or forest workers whoappliedthechemicals,butforthepeoplewhoconsumedtheir products, for those who drank the water polluted by agriculture or forestrunoff,orforthosewhobreathedtheairnearwherethesprayingoccurred.FortheUnitedStates,atleast,whichthenenjoyedhuge agriculturalsurpluses,Carsonbelievedthatfarmerscouldreducethe useofpesticides,coulddispensewithaerialspraying,andsuggested biologicalsubstitutesforchemicals(theuseofotherenemyinsects, such as wasps or ladybugs, or of bacterial insecticides, such as BT, or the sterilization of male insects to end reproduction). Some of thesewerealreadyused,andquitesuccessfully,butsofartheyhave
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notbeentheanswertoallinsectproblems.Andinsuchagriculturally stressedeconomiesasEgyptorIndia,thereisnosurplusandnoleeway formoreexpensiveinsectcontrols. Herbicides,firstdevelopedbythemilitaryduringWorldWarII,graduallywereadoptedbyfarmersandevenownersofsuburbanlotsafterthe war,atfirsttocontrolbroad-leafedweeds.Sincethen,companieshave developedselectiveherbicidesforcertainweedsandgrasses,aswellas herbicidesthatkillallvegetation.Gradually,mostcommercialfarmers,at leastforrowcrops,beganusingherbicidesasalabor-savingsubstitute forthecultivationofcrops.Theseseemedsafe,andforthemostpartthey were.Theearliestherbicide,2,4-D,isstillwidelyused.EvenCarsonsuspectedonlyindirecthealtheffectsonhumansoranimals.Whatconcerned herwastheecologicalconsequencesofwidespreadspraying,asofsage brush in theWest or along roads, railroads, or utility lines.This could destroythehabitatofanimals,orthenectarneededbybeesandbirds. Asitturnedout,2,4,5-T,asoriginallyproduced,wastoxictohumans, atleastinanybutthelowestconcentrations,becauseitcontainedoneof themostdeadlyofaclassofchemicalscalleddioxins.Itswidespreaduse inVietnam,asAgentOrange,meantthattheUnitedStateswasguiltyof atypeofbiologicalwarfare,notjustinitsintendedusetodestroyforest coverorricecrops,butasanagentwithpossiblyseverehealtheffectson civilians.Americansoldierswhowereinareassprayed,andparticularly thosewhodidthespraying,mayhavesufferedsomeofthedireeffects, althoughendlesslitigationbyveterans,andmanyscientificstudies,were inconclusiveaboutthedegreeofharmfromtherelativelylowlevelsof dioxin they absorbed. In any case, they eventually won compensation fromthefederalgovernment. Asforsomanyenvironmentalissues,theuseofherbicidesinvolves conflictingvaluesandgoals.Inmuchoftheunderdevelopedworld,the highcostofherbicidesandtherelativelylowwagestheredetertheir use.Butinhigh-wagecountries,theyarecosteffectiveandsafeifthose whoapplythemusetheprescribedmethods.Theynotonlysavelabor, but reduce the use of fossil fuels and allow no-till farming.The herbicideskillthegrassandweeds,sothatfarmerscanplantseedswith justaminorcutinthesoil.Thispreventserosion,andalsolimitsthe runofffromfertilizerorinsecticides.Suchno-tillagriculturemaybecomearequirementincertainriversystemstopreventwaterpollution orsiltation.
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ThesecondissueconfrontedbyCarsonwasthewidespreadspraying tocontroldiseases,particularlythosecausedbymosquitos.Moreoften thannot,thisinvolvedtheearliest,mostwidelyusedofthechlorinated hydrocarbons,dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane,orDDT.Unfortunately, Carson’sbookistoooftenassociatedonlywiththedebateoverandultimatebanningofDDT(in1972intheUnitedStates).Onnootherissue wereasmanycompetingvaluesatstake.ThesynthesisofDDTin1873in Strasbourgmadeitoneoftheearliestsyntheticchemicals.Sincenoone knewofitsvalueasaninsecticide,itwasnotcommerciallyproduced. In 1939, a Swiss chemist, Paul Müller, reconstituted the chemical and discovered its amazing ability to kill insects, an achievement that won himtheNobelPrizein1948.ItgaineditsfirstextensiveuseasaninsecticideduringWorldWarII,andbecameavailabletothepublicattheend oftheconflict.AmericantroopsusedDDTtokillbodyliceinItaly,and tokillmalaria-infectedmosquitos.Itsusesoaredatwar’send,makingit themostusedinsecticideintheworld.Itwasinexpensive,effectiveat lowconcentrations,andseemedtohavenoilleffectsonhumansinexposuresshortofamassiveingestionofthechemical.Itswidespreaduse formosquitocontrolsavedmillionsoflives,mostlyinunderdeveloped countries.Itbecameanessentialtoolinpublichealthcampaignsaround theworld.Dangersweresoonapparent.Itwastoxictofish,butseeminglynottomammals,althoughitwassoonclearthatDDTaccumulated intheirfatcells. Thefirstproofofdangerstononaquaticanimalscamein1960,ina findingthathadamajorinfluenceonCarson.AtClearLake,inCalifornia, theannualsprayingofDDTtocontrolgnatsledtothedeathofoverone thousandwesterngrebes(thepathologicalevidencewasoverwhelming) thathadfedonlakeplanktonwithhighconcentrationsofDDT.By1962, as Carson wrote, impressionistic evidence at many sites suggested that DDTwastoxictomanyspeciesofbirds,includingtherobinsthatshe emphasizedinherbook.CorrespondentsinHinsdale,Illinois,believed the annual spraying of DDT had killed almost all the area’s songbirds. Several southern bird watchers reported either the death or exodus of almostallbirdsaftermassiveaerialsprayingtokillspreadingfireants. InthesecasesCarsonhadnotangibleproofoftheaccuracyoftheseobservations,letaloneadetailedstudyofpossiblecauses.ButinMichigan andIllinoisshefoundratherdetailedpathologicalevidence,gatheredby scientists,ofhighmortalityamongrobins,andlowreproductiveratesfor
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thosethatsurvived,alltiedalmostbeyondadoubttotheDDTconcentratedinearthwormsaftersprayingtocontrolDutchelmdisease.Even whenCarsonwrote,itwasclearthatthebirdsthatweremostsusceptible to DDT were raptors, including many hawks and the bald eagle.They gorgedonfishthathadDDTintheirfatcells.Later,itwasclearthatthe greatestthreattoraptorswasnotdirectpoisoning,butthethinnedeggshellscausedbyDDT.Reproductionallbutceasedoverlargeareas,and theeaglepopulationofthelowerforty-eightstateswouldmovecloseto extinctionbeforeandjustafterthenationalban. Butitwasnotbirddeathsthatcreatedenoughpublicandscientific pressureforbanningDDT.TheobviousbenefitsofDDTasaninsecticide, thehumanlivesithadsaved,mightwellhaveoverriddenanyconcern overbirds,althoughthepossiblefateofournationalsymbolwasapowerfulpersuader.Anevenmorepowerfulpersuaderwerethechargesthat DDTwasahumancarcinogen.Herethecasewasfullofambiguities,with differentstudiesleadingtoconflictingopinions.Insomecases,withhigh doses,DDTcausedtumorsinmice.Abouttheonlycompellingargument forhumanendangermentisaminorone,andofrecentcogency—DDT mayincreaseestrogenlevelsinwomen,althoughmuchlesssothanbirth controlpillsorpost-menopausalprescriptions,andinthiswayslightly increasetherisksforbreastcancer.Asawhole,itremainsoneofthesafestinsecticidessofarashumanrisksareconcerned,anditisstillusedin somecountriesinmalarialcontrolprograms.Itisinexpensive,effective, andsafewhenusedwithinhomestokillmosquitos.Itswidespreadbanning hurt the international effort to control malaria. Ironically, almost allreplacementinsecticides,excludingbiologicalones,havebeenmore toxictohumans,moreexpensive,andmoredifficulttoapplysafely.None haveposedasmanyriskstobirds,butseveralhaveprovedmoretoxicto honeybeesandtofish. Carson’sbookdidnotend,orevendiminish,theuseofpesticides. Itdidleadtointensescientificevaluationsofeachpesticide,andbeyond thattolegislationtocontrolorpreventtheuseofeach.Asintended,the book’sapocalyptictonefrightenedpeople.Theybegantotakenoticeof thechemicalsintheirownhomes,oronestheyusedfreely,andoften recklessly,ongardensandlawns,oreventokilltermites.Herbookwas alsothefirsttomobilizenewenvironmentaldiscussiongroups,andsoon neworganizations,allintheturbulent1960s.BythefirstEarthDay,in 1970,Carsonwasaheroandmartyrtoagreatcause.4
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THECLIMAXOFENVIRONMENTALREFORM InthedecadeafterCarson’sbook,environmentalconcernsgraduallyrose to the top ofAmerican political concerns. By 1970, polls showed that overhalfofvoterssawenvironmentalstress,primarilyairandwaterpollution,asoneofthethreetopissuesfacingthecountry.Oneeventafter anotherreinforcedtheconcern,includingmuchpublicizedsmogover LosAngeles, numerous oil spills (by ships or offshore wells), bans on theeatingoflaketroutandcohosalmonfromtheGreatLakes,thenear extinctionofthebaldeagleinthelowerforty-eightstates,eventhepublicityoveraburningriver(theCuyahogainClevelandin1969).Bythe late1960s,collegeyouthwereinrebellion,notonlyagainstthewarin Vietnam,butalsoagainstthemiddle-class,liberalcultureoftheirparents’ generation.Thousands repudiated consumerism, moved to rural communes,andflirtedwithanarchism.NexttocivilrightsandVietnam,the plightoftheenvironmentmostenlistedtheiridealism.ThefirstEarthDay, supportedinCongressbySenatorGaylordNelsonofWisconsin,seemed tobeonetoolforenlistingyouthinaconstructiveratherthanaviolent anddestructivecrusade.Butthemoreradicalyouthrejectedmainstream environmental organizations, and joined in several radical, even a few violent,environmentalgroups(seechapter10). By1970,alltheolderandmostprestigiousenvironmentalorganizationshadbecomemoreactiveinadvocacyandincreasinglyeffectivein lobbying.Carson’sbookledtoanadvocacygroup,EnvironmentalAction. DavidBrowerformedaschismaticandmoreradicaloffspringoftheSierraClub,FriendsoftheEarth,in1969.ItsoonbranchedoffintotheEnvironmentalPolicyCenter.TheEnvironmentalDefenseFund(1967)and theNaturalResourcesDefenseFund(1971)helpedinsuretheenforcementofaseriesofnewenvironmentalregulations.TheLeagueofConservationVoters(1970)lobbiedfornewlegislation.AsmallCenterfor EnvironmentalEducation(1973)soonshifteditsprimaryemphasisto effortstosavewhales,andthentoalmostallissuesinvolvingtheoceans (in2001itchangeditsnametoOceanConservancy).Theseareonlythe largestandbestfundedofdozensofmainstreamenvironmentalgroups. Ofthese,thetwothatvergedtowardthemoreactivistendofthespectrum,likeGreenpeace,wereBrower’stwoorganizationsandattimesthe EnvironmentalDefenseFund.Ofallthelargerorganizations,theNature Conservancy,begunbackin1959,triedtomaintainabroadercoalition
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acrossthepoliticalspectrum,andalsohasleftamoreenduringlegacyin allthelandithaspurchasedinordertopreservebiodiversity. Publicconcern,strongactionagencies,andafavorablepoliticalenvironment led to a near avalanche of new environmental legislation. From1963to1980,thebillsweresonumerousandfarreachingthat almostnooneinCongresscouldkeeptrackofthemall.Thebills,and majoramendmentstothem,soonnumberedinthehundreds.Butabout a dozen were, and remain, the most important.Although the political and cultural situation was different, Japan and most western European countriesenactedcloselyrelatedenvironmentallegislation,evenasthe UnitedNationstremendouslyexpandeditsenvironmentalprograms,as hasbeenevidentinseveralpreviouschaptersofthisbook. Thefloodofenvironmentallegislationinthe1960swassoonconfusing,andinmostcasesonlyanopeningtomoredemandingandencompassingactsinthe1970s.OneexceptionwastheWildernessActof1964, which remains the legislative foundation of our system of wilderness areas.Thisact,passedbytheSenatein1963underasupportivePresident Kennedy,wasapprovedbytheHousein1964andgladlysignedbyPresident Lyndon Johnson.The legislative history stretched back for seven years,duringwhichseveralcongressmen(onewaslatervicepresident, HubertHumphrey)hadsupportedbillsstronglyurgedonCongressby theSierraClub,theWildernessSociety,and,lessfocally,mostenvironmental organizations. In a sense, the act was a belated achievement of JohnMuir.But,becauseofseveralspecialexceptionsintheact,itwasnot atotalvictoryforwildernessadvocates.5 TheWildernessActaddedprotectiontowhat,inmanycases,already existed—wild,reasonablywell-protected,primitiveareasinnationalforestsandnationalparks.ThebillhadmuchtorecommendittoCongress, includingalmostnocosts.Whatitdidwasprovideforwildernessdesignationofselectedareaswithinnationalforests,parks,andwildlifepreserves(after1976italsoincludedBureauofLandManagementlands). Jurisdiction over these designated areas remained within the existing agencies.Thus,thebillestablishednonewagenciesandrequirednonew personnel.Theareasdesignatedaswildernessweretobecontiguoussectionsofwildlands,thosescarcelyaffectedbyhumanaction.Thecongressionalpurposewastopreservesuchwildareas,asaplaceofsolitudeand recreation, by excluding any development, any permanent residences, anyroads,andtheuseofanymotorvehiclesormotorboats.Theonly
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developmentwithintheseareaswouldbehikingtrailsandshelters.Over a ten-year period, the secretary ofAgriculture was to survey and recommendsuitableprimitiveareaswithinthenationalforests,whilethe secretaryoftheInteriorwastolocatecontiguous,roadlessareasofover fivethousandacresinparksandwildlifepreserves.Publichearingsand congressionalapprovalwererequired.Thepresident,inordertoround outtheboundariesofdesignatedwildernessareas,couldadduptofive thousandadditionalacrestotheareasproposedbythefederalagencies. In1975Congressmandatedtheestablishmentofoverfifteenwilderness areasineasternnationalforests.In2003,theUnitedStateshad662wildernessareas,consistingofover106millionacres,orover4.6percentof alllandinthecountry.Noothercountrymatchesthis.Butitisimportant tonotethataround55percentofthisisinAlaska,whereonewilderness areaislargerthanthe9.1millionacresfirstsetasideundertheoriginal act. Forbothlegalandpoliticalreasons,theoriginalactincludedsome important concessions to private interests. It allowed for roads where necessaryforfirecontrol,allowedthecontinueduseofmotorboatsin lakeswherethishadbeenanestablishedformofrecreation,allowedaccessroadstoanyprivatelandencircledbyawildernessarea,and,possiblyofgreatestsignificance,honoredallexistingmineralleasesonland inawildernessarea,andallowednotonlyaccessroadstosuchleases,but alsotimbercuttingtoallowsuchroadaccess.Wherewellestablished,it alsoallowedgrazinginwildernessareasandaccesstoreservoirsorwater usedinpowerproduction.Foralltheseexcepteduses,bothfederalagenciesandstategovernmentscouldsetstrictrequirementsforuse,buteach exceptionconsiderablycompromisedtheideaofapristinewilderness. Inthesamesense,thesheernumberofhikersandcampersinthemore accessible wildernesses has subverted the ecological purposes of such reserves.6 TheJohnsonAdministrationproudlylistedenvironmentalreformsas apartofitsGreatSocietylegislation.Indeed,threeorfourenvironmental billspassedeachyearfrom1964to1968.Theysetimportantprecedents, butmostwouldbesupersededbystrongerlegislationinthe1970s.The Great Society included amendments to the CleanAirAct of 1963, and threebillsinvolvingwaterquality,waterresourcesplanning,andanearly versionofacleanwateract.Twobillsinvolvedairpollution,anothernew controlsoverradiation.AWildRiversActsupplementedtheWilderness
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Act.Ahighwaybeautificationlawledtosome,butnotenough,controls overroadsides.Severalbillsinvolvedconsumerprotectionandthesafety ofworkers,orissuesrelatedto,butnotcentralto,theenvironment.Byfar themostimportantofthesewastheOccupationalSafetyandHealthAct of1968.Bothenvironmentalandsafetylegislationledtonewagencies (for example, a Federal Pollution ControlAdministration) or advisory councils,withtheirhomesinthreeorfourfederaldepartments.By1979, allthesenewinnovationshadledtobureaucraticconfusion.Forthisreason,in1970,PresidentRichardNixon,asapartofagovernmentalreorganizationeffortunchallengedbyCongress,combinedmostofthese advisoryorenforcementeffortsintothenewEnvironmentalProtection Agency(EPA),whichbecamethelargestfederalregulatorybody.7
THENATIONALENVIRONMENTALPOLICYACT BeforehecreatedtheEPA,NixonsignedintolawthemostcomprehensiveenvironmentalbillinAmericanhistory—theNationalEnvironmentalPolicyAct(NEPA),approvedbyCongressinlate1969andsignedinto lawonJanuary1,1970.Atthetime,manyreferredtoitastheMagna CartaofenvironmentalisminAmerica.Itdidnotliveuptothisbilling, but has had enormous influence not only in the United States but in muchoftheworld.Asnotedinearlierchapters,severalUnitedNations organizations,andmostdevelopednations,haveadoptedvariationson whatbecamethemostimitatedproductofthisbill—environmentalimpactassessments. The earliest versions of what became NEPA dated from a resources and conservation bill introduced in 1959. Other related bills gained somecongressionalattentionin1961,1963,and1965.Oneintroduced by Senator Gaylord Nelson had the interesting title of“Ecological Research and Survey Bill.” By 1969, thirty separate but related bills vied for support.The one that succeeded was a version of a bill first introducedin1966andthenreintroducedin1969bySenatorHenryJackson. JohnDingellpushedanearsimilarbillintheHouse.TheSenatebillfirst gainedaunanimousvote.Afteraconferencecommitteeharmonizedthe twobills,thefinalversionsailedthroughbothhousesinlateDecember withlittledebateand,probably,verylimitedunderstandingofthebill bymostcongresspeople.Notably,thebillinvolvedonlylimitednewappropriations.
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NEPA, with its almost revolutionary implications, remains notable amongcriticalcongressionalenactmentsbecauseofitsbrevityandeloquence.Itmostcloselyresembled,inthescopeofitspolicyimplications, and in form, the Full EmploymentAct of 1946, which set a visionary economicpolicyagendaforthenation(oneneverfullyrealized)andestablishedtheCouncilofEconomicAdvisors.TheNationalEnvironmental PolicyActfirstincludedadeclarationofnationalenvironmentalpolicy. It then set certain procedural requirements for all decisions made by federalagencies.Finally,itestablishedathree-memberCouncilonEnvironmentalQualityintheExecutiveOfficeofthePresidentoftheUnited States. Thepolicydeclarationintheactwasascomprehensiveandasdaring asanyenvironmentalactivistcouldhavewished.Inthepreface,Congress stated that it would now be a national policy to encourage“harmony betweenmanandhisenvironment,”topromoteeffortsto“preventor eliminatedamagetotheenvironmentandbiosphere,”andto“enrichthe understandingoftheecologicalsystemsandnaturalresourcesimportant totheNation.”Initsmoredetailedstatementofnationalpolicy,itacknowledgedthe“profoundimpactofman’sactivityontheinterrelations of all components of the natural environment” and listed the role of populationgrowth,high-densityurbanization,industrialexpansion,resourceexploitation,andtechnologicaladvances.Itcommittedthefederal government to the maintenance of“conditions under which man and naturecanexistinproductiveharmony.”Toimplementthesegoals,itwas thedutyofthefederalgovernmenttouseallpracticalmeansto“fulfill theresponsibilitiesofeachgenerationastrusteeoftheenvironmentfor succeedinggenerations;assureforallAmericanssafe,healthful,productive,andestheticallyandculturallypleasingsurroundings...,achieve abalancebetweenpopulationandresourceusewhichwillpermithigh standardsoflivingandawidesharingoflife’samenities;andenhance thequalityofrenewableresourcesandapproachthemaximumattainable cyclingofdepletableresources.”TheCongressauthorizedanddirected that,tothefullestextentpossible,thepolicies,regulations,andlawsof theUnitedStates“shallbeinterpretedandadministeredinaccordance” withtheabovepolicies. Itisalongwayfromsucheloquentstatementsofageneralpolicyto theactualimplementationofitsgoals.OneoftheproblemswithNEPA isthatitdidnot,perhapscouldnot,clarifywhatthefederalgovernment
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hadtodo,inthewayofregulationsandappropriations,tocomeeven closetosuchloftygoals.Inasense,allthenewenvironmentallegislationinthe1960sand1970sreflectedsomeeffortstofulfillwhatNEPA identifiedasthenationalpolicy.TheannouncedpoliciesinNEPAwere, inasense,hortatory,evenabitofasermon,sincetheyhadnoregulatory powerinthemselves.Thecourtslaterruledthatonecouldnotuselegal process to hold any government agency responsible for fulfilling such loftybutgeneralgoalsunlesstheywereembeddedinregulatorylegislation,suchascleanairandwateracts.Inmyestimation,theonesubsequentcongressionalactwhichcameclosesttofulfillingthesesweeping policygoalswastheEndangeredSpeciesActof1973.It,morethanany otherfederalact,attimesforcedeconomicprioritiestogivewaytoenvironmentalones. Asitsmeansofforcinggovernmentagenciestoheedthenewenvironmentalpolicies,NEPAcontainedwhatturnedouttobeaveryimportant proceduralrequirement,orwhatsoonbecamefamousasEnvironmental ImpactStatements(EIS).Idoubtthatmanycongresspeoplewhoreadthe billrealizedtheimportanceoftheseprovisions.Insummary,theactrequiredthatallagenciesofthefederalgovernment,inallplannedprojects thatwouldhaveanyimpactontheenvironment,integrateinformation from the natural and social sciences, and from the design arts.They weretodevelopmethodsandprocedurestoinsurethattheygaveappropriate consideration in decision making to unquantified environmentalamenitiesaswellastoeconomicandtechnicalconsiderations. Out of this process, they had to develop a detailed statement on the environmentalimpactofanyfederalaction—onadverseenvironmental impactsthatanagencycouldnotavoid,on“possiblealternativestothe proposedaction,”on“therelationshipbetweenlocalshort-termuses ofman’senvironmentandthemaintenanceandenhancementoflongtermproductivity,andanyirreversibleandirretrievablecommitments ofresourceswhichwouldbeinvolvedintheproposedactionshould itbeimplemented.”Theagency,inpreparingsuchreports,hadtoconsultwithotheragencieswithoverlappingjurisdictionsorwithspecial expertise,andwithstateandlocalofficials,andhadtomakepublicall recommendations. HerewastheteethinNEPA.Unfortunately,intimemostpeopleforgot about the substantive polices that made such statements necessary. Inaseriesofdecisions,thefederalcourtsupheldthisrequirement,even
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forprojectsalreadyintheplanningstage.Agencieshadtocompilesuch reports,whichhadtoaccompanyallproposalsthroughthewholereview process leading to acceptance and funding.The act did not clarify any procedureforacceptingorrejectingtherequiredstatement.Agencydepartmentsandheadshadtoapproveprojects,andpresumablyreviewed notjusttheadherenceoftheagencytotheprocedure(thatitincluded alltheitemsrequiredbytheacttobepartofthestatement),butalso theenvironmentalviabilityoftheproposedaction.Butnothinginthe act required such substantive review, for the courts ruled that the environmental statement requirement was procedural only. If an agency proposedtodoirreparabledamagetoanendemicspeciesbybuildinga newdam,ithadtoacknowledgethisinitsstatement,butsuchacknowledgmentdidnotmeanitcouldnotproceedwiththedamifapprovedby theappropriatedepartmentofthefederalgovernment,and,atleastinthe caseofmilitaryprojects,thiswouldhappen.Ofcourse,inthiscasesuch aspeciesprobablyreceivedprotectionfromtheEndangeredSpeciesAct, butnotfromNEPA. In time, most federal agencies followed a formula, or even leased outthepreparationoftheirimpactstatements.Whentheycouldgetby withit,agenciesusedanenvironmentalassessmentreporttoproveno majorenvironmentalimpactatall,andthusavoidedthelongerandmore time-consuming EIS. By 1977, EISs tended to be excessively long and full of unreadable jargon. President Carter formalized clearer and simplerrules,leadingtoshorterreports.Andevenwhenanagencywrote awonderfulstatement,withwhatseemedanadmirablewayofdealing withenvironmentalproblems,noonewasresponsibleforanyfollow-up todeterminehowwelltheagencyfulfilleditsannouncedplans.Despite these problems, the procedure, to a large extent, achieved its purpose. Thiswasbecauseofthepublicdisclosureandcitizenawarenessofwhat wasatstake.Fromtheveryfirststatements,therequirementinvitedlitigation.Plentyofnewenvironmentalorganizationswereonthealert,and theyappealedtofederalcourtsoverandoveragaintoblockfederalprojects,suchashighwaysanddams,becauseofaninadequateEIS.Andeven thoughagenciesdidnothavetofavortheenvironment,butonlyadmit theproblems,infactthepublicexposuremadeitdifficultforagencies to violate the purpose and spirit of NEPA, except in cases of national security.Agenciesthattriedthiseitherlostoutinthereviewprocessor facedintenseandembarrassingpublicexposure.By1977,agencieshad
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preparedover11,000statements,faced1,052legalchallenges,andlost on217ofthem,whichmeantinjunctivereliefforplaintiffs.Inthecase ofNEPA,itwasthefederalcourtsthatbecametheenforcer. Atthetimeofpassage,theCouncilonEnvironmentalQuality(CEQ) seemed the most important product of NEPA. It was modeled on the CouncilofEconomicAdvisors,whichhadgainedenormousprestigeand influence.Thepresidentappointedthethree-membercouncil,including one member as chair.Appointments required Senate concurrence.The members of the council had to be environmental experts.The council wastoconsultwithaCitizens’AdvisoryCommitteeonEnvironmental Quality that Nixon had established in May 1969.The council was required to help the president prepare a required environmental report eachyear.Itwastogatherinformationonenvironmentaltrends,analyze suchinformation,determineitsimpactonthepoliciescontainedinthe act, and submit its studies to the president. It was also to review and appraise governmental programs to determine how well they met the policyobjectiveoftheact.Thecouncilhadasmallbudget(atfirst$1 million)to carry outinvestigationsandsurveys relating to“ecological qualityandenvironmentalquality.”Ithadtomakeanannualreporton thestateoftheenvironment.Thesewereimportantduties.Butforseveralreasonsthecouncilhasnotyetgainedtheprestige,ortheinfluence, intendedbytheoriginalact.Mostpeoplearenotawareofitsexistence. Had the act given the council the authority to review and, if it chose, rejectenvironmentalimpactstatements,andthustoblockprojectsthat failedtomeetthepolicygoalsoftheact(itcouldonlyrecommendthat thepresidentrejectsuchprojects),itmighthaveplayedamuchgreater roleinoursystem.8 OnefinalaspectofNEPAwasinnovative.InadditiontocreatingEISs, allfederalagencieshadtomakeavailabletostateandlocalgovernments usefulenvironmentaladviceandinformation,andalso,whenconsistent withnationalforeignpolicygoals,supportinternationalprogramsthat couldhelppreventadeclineinthequalityoftheworld’senvironment. Already,manyfederalagencieswereinvolvedinUnitedNationsenvironmentalprograms,andsincetheenactmentofNEPAthisinvolvementhas increased exponentially. Despite shifts in the level of political support, theUnitedStateshasprovidedmorefundsforinternationalenvironmentalprogramsthananyothercountry(butnotnearlyasmuchasseveral westernEuropeancountriesonapercapitabasis),andonalmostevery
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issueAmerican scientists have taken the lead in critical environmental researchandindevelopingnewtechnologiestogatherinformationand tomitigateproblems.9
ENFORCEMENT:THEENVIRONMENTALPROTECTIONAGENCY The complement to NEPA was the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).Ifindmanypeoplewholinkthetwo,orbelievethattheEPAwasa productoftheNEPA.TheNEPAdidinspireNixontocreateanewregulatoryagencytodealwiththeever-expandingbodyofenvironmentalacts andagencies.Inhisgovernmentalreorganizationplanof1970,which wentintoeffectwhennotvetoedbyCongress,Nixonconsolidatedmost existingenvironmentalprogramsintothenewEPA.Programsinwater qualityandpesticidecontrolmovedfromInterior,agenciesdealingwith air pollution, solid waste management, water hygiene, and radiation movedfromHealth,Education,andWelfare,pesticideresearchfromAgriculture,andecologicalresearchfromthenewCouncilonEnvironmentalQuality.Notincludedwereenvironmentalaspectsofworkindefense andtransportation,andsomewaterandsewerprogramsinHousingand UrbanDevelopment.Theonlystrongcriticismwasthatthechangedid notgofarenough,andthatenvironmentalprotectiondeserveddepartmentalstatus(anidearevivedintheClintonAdministration).TheOffice ofManagementandBudgetworkedouttheadministrativedetailsofthe newagency,whichopenedforbusinessonDecember2,1970,orayear aftertheenactmentofNEPA.WilliamRuckelshouse,aformercongressmenfromIndiana,andajust-defeatedcandidatefortheSenate,tookover asthefirstadministrator,andasitturnedout,averyforcefulone.The originalstaffsimplymovedtoEPAfromtheirformerdepartments,and atfirstcontinuedtodomuchthesameworkasbefore. TheEPAquicklybecamethelargestregulatoryagencyinWashington, andtheonewiththemostcomplexrole.Itwasalsothemostambitious suchagencyintheworld,eventhoughFrancesetupanenvironmental ministryatalmostthesametime.NotonlydidtheEPAabsorbalmost allexistingenvironmentalprograms,butCongress,inthenextdecade, wouldassignitthemainadministrativeandenforcementroleforadozen majornewlaws.By2003theEPAwouldhaveovereighteenthousand employees,amajorityattheprofessionallevel.Itis,byfar,thelargestenvironmentalagencyintheworld.Noteventheadministratorcanunder-
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standitsmanyfunctions.In1995,anEPAofficiallistedthirty-threemajor legislativeenactmentsthatguideditsregulatorywork.Actually,onecould easilydoublethisnumber,particularlyifoneincludedmajorrevisions oramendmentstoearlierlegislation.Fromthebeginning,ithasbeena beleagueredagency,besetwithcriticismfromallsides.Environmentalists havebemoaneditscaution,itswillingnesstoseekvoluntaryagreements with major polluters, and at times its ineptitude.Those regulated have chaffed at all the impenetrable rules, the bureaucratic inefficiency, the costofwhatseemstothemneedlessregulationsoradministrationdecisions.Congress,attimesgladly,haspassedcomplexlegislationandthen turnedovertheproblemofadministrationandinterpretationtotheEPA, butneverwithenoughfundingoranadequatestafftodoallthework. Itisdifficult,inashortspace,toenumeratewhattheEPAdoes,or triestodo.Ithasextensiverule-makingauthority,subjecttomanypublic hearingsbeforelisting.Perhapshalfoftheserulesdealwithpollution, whichmostpeoplesawasthemostcriticalissueatitsfounding.Ithas almost complete enforcement authority over our CleanAir andWater Actsandovertoxicchemicals.Afteraseriesofamendmentstolegislation dating from 1947 but which culminated in 1997, it has almost completecontroloverpesticideuse.EvenRachelCarsonmightbepleasedat this.Itregulateslead,asbestos,radon,typesofradiation,oilspills,solid wastedisposal,medicalhazards,andwetlandprotection.Itsupportsvarious recycling programs, has responsibility for some programs dealing withcoastsandtheoceans,sponsorsenvironmentaleducation,provides advisories on fish contamination, certifies energy-efficient appliances, and has worked out voluntary conservation strategies with many corporations.Finally,inanunwantedduty,ithasdevotedmuchfrustrating energy in trying to administer the Comprehensive Environmental Response,Compensation,andLiabilityActof1980(Superfund),whichhas involvedcostlyeffortstocleanuptoxicwastesitesandendlesslitigation overeffortstoforceresponsiblepartiestopayforthecost. Attimes,itseemsthatnoonelovestheEPA.Theagencyhasseemedto beinacrisisthroughoutmuchofitshistory,butitisimportanttonote thatitisoftenthelegislation,notitsenforcement,thatleadstocriticism. ButifonereadsevensomeofthethousandsofrulesenforcedbytheEPA, one appreciates the enormous task involved in protecting an environment in a highly industrialized, growing economy.The costs are high. The frustrations are inevitable. But, as a whole, the EPA has been able
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toimplementanoverwhelmingvolumeofenvironmentallegislationin suchawayastosloworstoptheworseningofenvironmentalconditions inseveralareas,orevenimprovetheminafew.Ithasnotdonemuch toslowglobalwarming,anareainwhichtheEPAhasnothadamajor rolebeyondsomeresearchandpubliceducation.Sofar,theUnitedStates doesnothavelawsthateffectivelyregulategreenhousegasemissions.If Congressenactssuchlaws,nodoubtitwillassignenforcementresponsibilitiestothealreadyoverburdenedEPA.10 BoththeNEPAandtheEPAreflectthesuccessofreform-orientedenvironmentalistsintheUnitedStates.ThepoliciescontainedintheNEPA, andthebreadthofagencyresponsibilitiesintheEPA,goaboutasfaras onecouldexpectinapluralisticpoliticalsystem.Butthepayoffineach caseisintheimplementationofthepolicies.Fewreform-orientedenvironmentalists,despiteallthelegislativevictories,arehappywiththe presentoutcome,particularlyunderthesecondBushAdministration.But mostwillcontinuetoworkwithinthepresentpoliticalsystemtogain further, largely incremental and modest, reforms.This is not true of a muchmoreangryandpassionategroupofenvironmentalists,orthesubjectofthenextchapter.
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F
ormanypeopleenvironmentalconcernshavebecometheircontrollingpassion,andforsomeconvertstotheGaiatheoryeventhebasis ofanewreligion.Afewhavebecomemartyrstothecause,riskingand losingtheirlivesinenvironmentalactivism.But,asonewouldexpect, thesemostcommittedenvironmentalistsarenotofonemind.Theyall haverejectedwhattheyusuallyrefertoasshallow,orliberal,orreform environmentalism,whichincludesmostofthebetterknown,andbetter funded,nongovernmentalorganizationsthatareseekingnewandstronger environmental legislation. But the exact boundaries between these establishment advocates and those who are deep or radical in outlook isnotalwaysdistinct.Andevenamongthosewhoacceptthelabelradical,thegambitrunsfrommild,evenpacificisttheoriststoafewwell- publicizedactivistswhohaveresortedtoviolentprotest,oftenundersuch newlycoinedwordsasecotageorecoterrorism.Ofthevariedgroups,the largestbutmostdiffusearethosewhohaveacceptedsomeversionofthe GaiatheorydevelopedbyJamesLovelock,butnotethatnotalladvocates ofGaiaareradicalinoutlook,andthisincludesLovelockhimself.
GAIA TheGaiahypothesisislargelyidentifiedwiththeworkofJamesLovelock,aBritishinventorandindependentscientistwhosemajorresearch hasbeenatleastlooselyinthefieldofmedicine.HegainedhisPh.D.for medical research and, broadly conceived, in the field of biochemistry. Environmentalists,aswellasNewAgereligionists,havecorrectlydrawn inspirationandneededknowledgefromLovelockandfromhisclosest 251
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associate, theAmerican biologist Lynn Margulis. But Lovelock is not a radical environmentalist and has frequently ridiculed romantics who wouldliketomovebacktoasimplerpastage.Hebelievestheearthfaces graveproblems,butisirenicenoughtobelievehumanscanfixmostof them. Lovelock has developed some intense policy concerns based on hisGaiatheory,butmostoftheseareinlinewiththoseofreformenvironmentalists,andmostinvolvethedevelopment,andappropriateuse, ofnewtools.Onsomeissues,suchasthethinningoftheozonelayer, anissuethathehadhelpedclarify,hearguedthatthewidespreadalarm wasoverblownandtheissuerelativelyunimportanttothehealthofthe earth.HeoncetestifiedfortheDuPontCorporation,andwasforyearsa consultantfortheShellOilCompany,notthecredentialsvaluedbymany environmentalists. Gaia theory, in one sense, is simple, but much like Darwin’s arguments in Origin of Species, it is speculatively rich and both boosted and confusedbytheeloquentbutoftenmisleadinglanguageLovelockand othershaveusedtodefendit.Byhisownaccount,Lovelock,inarevelatorymomentin1965,firstgraspedthetheorythathewould,bythe suggestionofthenovelistWilliamGolding,nameaftertheancientGreek earthgoddess,Gaia.In1960hebecameaconsultantfortheJetPropulsionLaboratory,andthusforabranchoftheNationalAeronauticsand SpaceAdministration.Fortwoyearsheevenheldanappointmentatthe BaylorCollegeofMedicineinHouston.MostofhisworkforJPLinvolved waysofdeterminingiflifeexistedonMars.Inreflectingonthisissue,he realizedthesignificanceofapointhehadearlierstressed:thattheeasiest waytofindevidenceofanysignificantquantityoflifeonMarswouldbe toanalyzeitsatmosphere.Infact,itsatmospherewasclosetoanequilibrium,withitsenergycontentallbutexhausted.Theoppositewastrueof theearth,wheretheairwasfullofreactivegases,andconstantlyaffected byenergyflowsfromthelivingorganismsthatuseditasaresourceand asarepositoryofwasteproducts.UnlikeMarsandVenus,itwasaliving planet.This type of reasoning led Lovelock to a new insight and what becameamission—todiscoverallthewaysthatlifeinteractedwiththe inanimateearth,shapingitasoftenasshapedbyit,withclimatepossibly theonemostimportantproductofsuchinteraction. Although Lovelock lamented the lack of scientific attention so far giventotheroleoflifeinshapingtheearth,hewasfarfromthefirstto notemanylevelsofinteraction.Hisownspeculationssuggestedamuch
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widerrangeofsuchinteractions,supportednewlinesofresearch,and eventuallygainedhimagreatdealofrespectfromatleastafewhighly specializedscientists.Butitwasnotthefactofsuchmutualinfluences thatmadehimfamous,butafurtherinferencethatLovelockdrewfrom them.Iwanttostatehishypothesisintheformofasimile,forinthis wayIcanpostponesomeofthedifficultiesthatsoonbotheredcritics. He, in effect, said that the part of the earth which contains life is like ahuge,self-regulatingorganism.Attimeshealmostwentbeyondthis, andsaidthatitwassuchanorganism,andthisviewwasreinforcedby hispersonificationofGaiainsomuchofhiswriting.ButinallfairnessI believeitmorecorrecttosaythat,eveninthesometimesoverlyenthusiasticlanguageofhisearlydefenseofhistheory,heonlyarguedthat, inmostbutnotallrespects,thebiospherebehavedlikeanorganism.For example,itdoesnotreproduceitself.Also,unlikelivingbeings,itdoes notreflectanythinglikeinnateorlearnedendsorgoals.Noteleologyis present.Yet,likeorganisms,itisanalmostunbelievablycomplexwhole, whichreceivesallmanneroffeedbackdataandwhichconstantlymakes suchadjustmentsinair,soil,andwaterastomaintainalltheconditions neededforlifetocontinuetoflourish.Itisasifthebiosphereinvolveda typeofmetabolismcomparabletothatoforganisms.Thistheory,initself, wouldseemclearenoughfortesting,althoughsoencompassinginits scopeastoneverlenditselftoanyfinalverification.Asawhole,thedetailedinquiryintheseveralfieldsofscienceimplicatedbythistheoryhas tendedtoconfirmaspectsofit,inthesensethatinalmosteveryareain whichLovelockpredictedthermostat-likechangesthatallowedthebiospheretocopewithoutsideperturbations,suchasincreasedheatfrom thesun,scientistshavediscoveredlife-producedresponses. Lovelock is, by intent, a broad-gauged scientist, interested in what mightbecalledmegatheories.Hehascreatedanewlabelforhisline ofinquiry,geophysiology.Heisoftenimpatientwithnarrowscientific specialization.Hewantstoaddressbigsyntheticorintegratingissues.He wasnotonlymuchinfluencedbyCharlesDarwin,butresembleshimin manyways.Inasense,hiswholetheoryrestsuponorganicevolution.If itwerenotforinheritablemistakesincopiesofDNA(mutations),and thusdifferentialsurvivalratesinscarceenvironments,lifewouldnever havebeenabletochangeandadapt.Withoutmutations,earlylife,which developed, perhaps as a result of pure luck in what Lovelock saw as a relatively brief window of opportunity, would soon have expired.The
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environment would have gone through the same type of changes that transformedMarsandVenusintodeadplanets.Darwinemphasizedadaptationsthatfavoredindividuals.Lovelockdiscoveredthesameadaptabilityforlifeasawhole,whichhashelpedmaintainalife-supportingearth. NotethatwhathecallsGaia,ortheself-regulatingbiosphere,developed notwiththefirstlife(itmayhaverepresentedtheembryoofGaia),but whenearlylifefirstbegantoshapeitsnonorganicenvironment.Lovelock believedthiswasverysoonafterthefirstlife,oratleastassoonasearly microscopiclifebecamesensitivetolightandbeganearly,prechlorophyll formsofphotosynthesis. Unfortunately,bothDarwinandLovelockusedthesametypeofteleologicallanguagetoconfusetheircentralclaims.Darwinhadhisown revelation,onethatchangedtheworld.Hebelievedthatsomeinheritable variations, which he could not explain at a molecular level (we do so explainthemnow),wouldinacontextofenvironmentalscarcityinevitablyfavorsomeindividualsandincreasetheirchancesofsurvivaland reproduction.Fortunatevariationswouldallowsomeorganismsbetter to fit an existing environment, or more easily adapt to environmental changes.Cumulativevariationswouldleadtocontinuousorganicchange andtonewspecies.Intimesuchchangeswouldleadtotwodesign-like outcomes—ecologicalrichness,asspecieswouldemergethatfitalmost anyconceivableenvironmentalniche,andwhatheoftencalledhigher species,meaningthosewiththetypeofinternalspecializationofparts andthecentralnervoussystemcoordinationthatallowedthemtoadapt toawiderarrayofenvironmentsordomoretoshapeenvironmentsto fit their needs. But design-like does not mean any design, any agency behind the process of change, any selection.The present biosystem is simplytheoutcomeofanunguidedand,inmostsensesoftheterm,an uncausedprocess.Butthecomplexity,andoftenforDarwinthebeauty, of the outcome led him, much as Lovelock, to buy into a simile that soonconditionedmanyofhisargumentsandalmostallhisdescriptive language.Itwasasif,orlike,naturehadselectedaseriesofbeneficial outcomes.Hethusproudlyintroducedametaphoricalagent,“naturalselection.”Lovelock’sdesign-likemetaphoricalagentisGaia.Inbothcases, themetaphorcametohavealifeofitsown,withendlessconfusion. Behind the metaphors were the enduring insights of both Darwin andLovelock.ForLovelockitwastheimplicationsoftheself-regulating relationshipoflifeandnonlifeintheearth’sbiosphere.Today,fewscien-
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tistswilldenytheall-importantroleoflifeinshapingtheevolutionof theearth,ordenythealmostendlessfeedbacksandcyclesthatallowlife onearthtobendandmeshwithmajorchangesinthenonlivingenvironment.Thisunderstandingwasbound,soonerorlater,toresultfrom specializedstudies,butLovelockhighlightedtheissue,pointedscientists in new directions, and helped create a broad public awareness of the wondersofourlivingplanet.Intwoways,Lovelockcontributedtothe newinquiry.First,in1957heinventedanelectroncapturedetector,a smalldevicethatcoulddetectminutequantitiesofanygasintheenvironment.Itsoonwasvitallyimportantinidentifyingpesticideresidues intheair,andinhelpingestablishthegrowingconcentrationofCFCsin theatmosphere(vitaltoozonethinningresearch).Thisdeviceledtohis secondcontribution.ItallowedLovelockandseveralotherscientiststo verify a heretofore unknown feedback mechanism that allowed life to regulateclimate.Minuteemissionsofdimethylsulfidebymid-oceanalgaehelpcreatewhathadseemedinexplicablecloudformationsoverthe largelyaerosol-freeoceans(theDMS,whenoxidizedintosulfateaerosols,providedtheneedednucleusforcondensedwaterdroplets).Such oceanclouds,byreflectingsunlight,helpcooltheearth. ButGaia,despiteallthenewlydiscoveredwaysthatlifeshapestheatmosphere,hasremainedanelusiveandcontroversialtheory.Atonelevel theproblemisthelanguageused.Butwhenonegetsaroundthesemantics,oneisstillleftwithasensethatGaiaisasuggestivebutattimesmisleadingmetaphorforthetotalityoflife,andnothingmore.Agoodplace tostartiswithDarwin.Everyonetalksofnaturalselectiondoingthisand that.Butifonelooksclosely,onecanneverfindany“naturalselection.” Nothingisthere.Noselectiontakesplace.Teleologyisabsent.Thesame istrueforGaia.Itdoesnotstandforanyactor,anysourceofchange,any cause.Itisasimple,personalized,rhetoricaldevice,awayofreferringto thealmostmagicaloutcomesoflifeprocessesontheplanetearth.After all, people were already acquainted with such language, as when they referto“MotherNature.” Gaiaisawordthatmayhelpdramatizetheenormousrangeofinteractionsoflifewithitsphysicalenvironment,butLovelockbelieveditwas morethanthat.LikeDarwininreflectivemoments,heacknowledgedthe metaphoricalcontentoflabelssuchasGaiaornaturalselection,buthe stilltalkedasifGaiawasanactor.JustasDarwinoftenstressedhowmuch moresublimeweretheproductsofnaturalselectioncomparedtohu-
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manbreeders,soLovelockcelebratedthewonderfuladaptivestrategies ofGaia.Healso,evenwhendenyingthatGaiainanysensewasagod,or thatitreflectedtheworkofadeity,applaudedthosewhowantedtomake Gaiaareligioussymbol,evenanobjectofatypeofworship.HepersonallyreferredtoGaiaasbeingattheheartofhisownreligioussensibility. Theissuethatstillperplexespeopleisfindingthebestwaytounderstandthedesign-likeoutcomesofwhatDarwincallednaturalselection and the earth-wide design-like outcomes of what Lovelock calls Gaia. Thetwoaresolinkedastobeoneproblem.Somerecent,detailedwork in molecular biology suggests that the wonderful feedbacks, the recyclingofchemicalelementsnecessaryforlife,areaproductoftheendless mutations and differential survival rates that adapt life to shifting environmentalconstraints.Outoftheinteractionoforganisms,eachin asenseservingorfulfillingitsowninnateorlearnedendsorpurposes, comenotonlyorganicadaptabilityandcomplexity,butalsocontinuous modificationsinthenonlivingenvironmentthatfacilitatetheevolutionaryprocess.Unlessonebelievessomedivineintentunderliestheprocess, theoutcomesareinnosensedesignedorselected.AsAdamSmithsuggestedin1776,incharacterizingtheoutcomesofafreemarket,theyare asifaproductofahiddenhand.Butthereisnohand,or,inhiscase,no realmarket.Personifiedterms,likemarket,ornaturalselection,orGaia, areanalmostnecessaryverbalshorthandfortypesofdynamicinteractionswhich,becauseofthecharacteristicsoftheindividualactorsand the environment that contains them, eventuate in new forms of order orstructure.ThedifferencesbetweenMarsandEarthsimplysuggestthe quitedifferentformsoforderthatcandevelopwherelifeispresent.And itisimportanttonotethatcertainseeminglywonderfuloutcomesare,in fact,oftentheproductofmanymessydetoursandahighdegreeofchaos (thetypeoflifecontrolledbyDNAremainsanunexplainedgiven,while copyingerrorsinDNAseemcompletelyrandom). TheGaiahypothesis,eitherinitsrestrictedscientificsense,orinits mystifications, offered a gold mine of possibilities for environmentalists.Morethananyonebeforehim,Lovelockdemonstratedtherangeof symbioticrelationshipsamongallformsoflife,andwithwhatpeople hadtooeasilyassumedtobeaseparatephysicaluniverse.Ifhehadany message, it was that humans have not begun to understand most life processes,andoftenbytheirinterventionsmayriskundreamedofcalamities.Hethuswarnedagainstdetailedhumanstrategiestomanagethe
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biosphere.Thisledhim,insomecases,suchasozonethinning,toline upagainstmostenvironmentalists.Consistentwithhisfocusonmajor chemicalcycles,helookedtotheoverallwelfareofGaia,meaningthe wholebiosphere,andnottoshort-termhumanbenefits.Hebelievedthat almostallresearchreinforcedhisviewthat,forGaiaasawhole,themost importantorganismsarenotvertebratesbutmicroorganisms,mostatthe levelofbacteria.Hewasthusmoreconcernedwiththehealthofthese minutecreaturesthanwithpopulareffortstopreventtheextinctionof threatenedbirdsormammals.Thegreatthermostaticprocessesthatkeep Gaiainbalancewithanever-changingexternalenvironment,including theeverhottersun,occurinthesoil,inthedeeperwateroftheoceans,in oxygen-deprivedswampsandlagoons.Herearetheorganicfactoriesthat carryoutmostphotosynthesisandthussequestercarbon,thatfacilitate mostoftheweatheringofrocks,thatrecyclemostoftheelementsupon whichlifedepends,thatbreakdownandassimilateallmannerofwaste products,includingmuchhuman-producedwaste.Thus,Lovelock’senvironmental concerns are those related to these most basic processes, with his ever present warning that we do not yet begin to have a full understandingofmostofthem.Butanythreattohard-workingbacteria, andtotheirchemicalhandiwork,isthemostdangerousofalltolifeon earth.Notthathefearedafulldestructionoflife,butratheranotherof thegreatperiodsofmassiveextinction.Gaiaisenormouslyresilient,but onlyoverextendedperiodsoftime. AttheheartofLovelock’spresentconcernsisglobalwarmingandall thatmaygowithit.Inabookforpopularreadersin1991,hereferred tothe“peopleplague.”Thesheernumberofhumans,andwhattheydo, amounts to a disabling disease, a pathological distortion.The modern normfortheearthisthecold,glacialeras,whichfaroutlastthebrief interimsofwarming.FromthestandpointoftheNorthernHemisphere, thepresentwarminterglacialperiodisagoldenage,butnotforGaiaas awhole.Inthelasticeage,orasrecentlyastwentythousandyearsago, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere sank to around 180 ppm,orwhatLovelockbelievedwasjustenoughtokeepphotosynthesis going.Suchadropmightseemcounterintuitive,sincesomuchofthe planetwasunderice,curtailingplantlifeanditssequesteringofcarbon. Buttheoceanswerethenoverthreehundredfeetlowerthantoday,the cooleroceanssupportedaboominmicroscopiclife,andinmanytropicalareas,suchasSoutheastAsia,nearcontinent-sizelandareaswerethen
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exposed,abletosupportalushtropicalvegetation.Gaiabloomed,and thusthesequesteringofcarboninbiomass,andthesmallannualamount depositedontheseabottom,exceededtherateofrespirationandother modesofrecyclingcarbonintotheatmosphere. Then,forwhateverreason,aboutthirteenthousandyearsagoasudden warmingbegantomeltthecontinentalglaciers.Bytenthousandyears agomostweregone,andtheoceaneventuallyrosebythreehundredfeet, coveringthecontinentalshelves.Lovelockbelievesthewarminterludeis bothexceptionalandprobablypathological.HecallsitGaia’sfever,using theanalogyofhumanillness.Byprocessesonlyinlimitedwaysinvolving humans,theconcentrationofcarbondioxiderosetoaround280ppm bytenthousandyearsagoandremainedratherconstantuntil1900.It thenbeganrising,largelyfromhumaninputs,andhassoaredsince1950 toaround380ppmin2006.Methane,insomerespectsanevenmore dangerousgreenhousegas,hasrisenatanevenmorerapidrate.Anda newgroupofhuman-synthesizedgases,thechlorofluorocarbons,which affecttheozonelayer,haverisenfromzerotoeverhigherconcentrations (LovelockfearsthegreenhouseeffectofCFCsmorethantheimpacton ozone).Lovelockisnotsurewhattheimpactofwarmingis,initself.He argues,inhispersonalizedlanguage,thatGaiawillworkhardtokeepa balanceinnature,perhapslargelybecauseofclimatefeedbacks,suchas theaddedplantgrowthonlandandintheoceanscausedbyextracarbon dioxide,andbecauseofextracloudcovercausedbyplanttranspiration andmorerapidevaporationofoceanwater. Thus,morethanmostenvironmentalists,Lovelockemphasizeswhat ishappeningtocarbonsinks.Likesomebioregionalists,hefindstheearliestsourceoftheprobleminagriculture,andbelievesthat,eventoday, farmingandgrazingaredoingmoretosickenGaiathanmanufacturing and trade (he hates cows). He emphasizes the degrading of land, the assaultonthepreciousbacteriaandfungiinthesoil,thedestructionof wetlands and estuaries, but above all the destruction of forests and in tropicalareasthedesertificationthatensues.Heevenreferstoearlyagricultureasthefallfromparadise.HeknowsthatevenGaiacannotquickly respondtosomanyassaults,andthatthepresentpopulationoftheearth cannotsustainitspresentuseofthenaturalenvironment.Heenvisionsan earlycatastrophewithoutmajorchangesinhumanbehavior,andnotes theMalthusianhellalreadyvisibleinAfricaandpartsofAsia. But Lovelock is more hopeful than gloomy. He applauds a recently
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developedconcernforenvironmentalissues,andsomealreadyeffective reforms.Humanshavetostopreproducingatthepresentrate.Theyhave toreducetheburningoffossilfuels.Mostofall,theyhavetopreserve forests,particularlytropicalforests.Whatisneededisnotaretreatfrom agriculture(thiswouldmeanwidespreadstarvation),butsuchnewefficienciesthatagriculturewillrequirelesslandandlessdeforestation.He supportsanexpansionofnuclearenergytoreplaceoilandcoal.Icould goon,butinmostrespectshesoundsnotlikeenvironmentalradicals, butlikeliberalenvironmentalistswhoindeedwantchangesinhuman valuesandconsumption,butalsoseekatechnologicalfixformanyglobalproblems.1
DEEPECOLOGY Beyond the Gaia hypothesis, the broadest and most philosophical approach to our environment is deep ecology. It has directly influenced othertheoriesormovements,suchasecofeminism,Greenpeace,and,at theradicalextreme,EarthFirst!Certainthemesarecommontoalmostall peoplewhoidentifywitheachofthesegroups.Mostbelievethathumanity,withoutfundamentalchangesinbeliefsandpatternsofconsumption, faces an imminent environmental catastrophe. Many are apocalyptic in theirsenseofcomingdoom.Mostcondemnfreemarketorcapitalistic economicsystems,hatemultinationalcorporationsandworldtradeorganizations,deploreconsumptivevalues,aresuspiciousofmodernscientificorlinearorrationalisticformsofthought,andblamemuchofour presentenvironmentalcrisisonmonotheisticreligions.TheyvalueOriental,animistic,orneopaganreligions,supportlocalizedandcooperative formsofproduction,celebratepreindustrialandprimitivecultures,seek asimplelifewithlimiteddesires,andoftenmovetosomethingcloseto anarchisminpolitics.Beyondallthis,theyseekacompletetransmutation ofwhattheybelievetobeapresentlydominantanthropocentricethic. Thisismosttrueofthosewhoadvocateadeepecology. Thelabel“deepecology”datesto1973,toabriefarticleinaphilosophy journal byArne Naess, a Norwegian philosopher.This article launched a movement. In it, Naess offered an alternative to what he calledthe“shallowecologymovement.”Atfirst,hedidnotelaborateon thecontentofshallowecology,excepttonotethatitincludedthosewho foughtagainstresourcedepletionandpollutioninbehalfofpreserving
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thehealthandaffluenceofpeopleindevelopedcountries.Inlaterwritings,hefilledinarathercompleteidealtypeofshallowecology,onethat probablymatchednooneperson,andwhichwasclosetoacaricatureof most reform-oriented environmentalist activists. It involved, above all, anacceptanceofmostaspectsofthepresentsocialandeconomicorder, withpiecemealeffortstoreformit,tosolvevariousenvironmentalproblems,allinbehalfofanimprovementofhumanlife. In his first article on deep ecology, Naess offered an outline of its principles.BecauseofNaess’sopennesstoalternativephilosophicalfoundations,andacertainloosenessoflanguage,theseprinciplesinspireda continuing philosophical debate, or what has become by far the most elaborate theoretical development among contemporary environmentalists. In a later book, Ecology, Community and Lifestyle, Outline of an Ecosophy (1976), Naess advocated a rather formal philosophical position, and summarizedthisbyaneight-pointplatformthathasbeenwidelypublicized.Todistinguishhisphilosophyfromthatofotherdeepecologists, hearbitrarilychosetheletterT,anddubbedhisphilosophyEcosophyT. ItsleadingdiscipleinAmericawouldbeGeorgeSessions.2 Perhaps the one central article of faith for Naess was his rejection of what he called anthropocentrism. By this he meant any philosophy thatprivilegedhumansovertherestofthenaturalworld,andthusany environmental movement predicated upon human welfare. Instead, he wantedhumanstoacceptabroadenedidentitythatfullyencompassed all other life, not because of sympathy or altruism, but out of a sense of mutual interdependence.All species have an equal right to live and blossom.Whenhumansextendtheirself-imagetoencompassthewhole networkoflifethatis,inasense,theirlargerself,thentheyescapefrom analienationfromthelargerweboflifeandgainahigherlevelofselffulfillment.Thisfulfillmentjoinswiththatofhumanswhorejecttheexploitationofotherhumans,whodeploreinvidiousclasssystemsofany type.Guidingallofhisthoughtwasacommitmenttoorganism,totalfields,gestalts,ornetworks.Suchholismdidnotmeanlarge,impersonal systems, but usually local or regional communities of interacting and interdependentspecies,oftenreferredto,byhisdisciples,asecoregions orbioregions. WhenNaesstriedtoexpressallthisintheformofaplatform,henecessarilyleftmuchunclearoropen-ended.Yet,hisplatformisworthrepeating infull,astheclosestapproximationofadeepecologicalposition:
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1.Theflourishingofhumanandnon-humanlifeonEarthhas intrinsicvalue.Thevalueofnon-humanlifeformsisindependent oftheusefulnessthesemayhavefornarrowhumanpurposes. 2.Richnessanddiversityoflifeformsarevaluesinthemselvesand contributetotheflourishingofhumanandnon-humanlifeon earth. 3.Humanshavenorighttoreducethisrichnessanddiversity excepttosatisfyvitalneeds. 4.Presenthumaninterferencewiththenon-humanworldis excessive,andthesituationisrapidlyworsening. 5.Theflourishingofhumanlifeandculturesiscompatiblewitha substantialdecreaseofthehumanpopulation.Theflourishingof non-humanliferequiressuchadecrease. 6.Significantchangeoflifeconditionsforthebetterrequires changeinpolicies.Theseaffectbasiceconomic,technological, andideationalstructures. 7.Theideologicalchangeismainlythatofappreciatinglifequality (dwellinginsituationsofintrinsicvalue)ratherthanadheringto ahighstandardofliving.Therewillbeaprofoundawarenessof thedifferencebetweenbigandgreat. 8.Thosewhosubscribetotheforegoingpointshaveanobligation directlyorindirectlytoparticipateintheattempttoimplement thenecessarychanges.3 Thisplatformistooequivocaltoprovideveryclearguidelinesforenvironmentalpolicies.ItdoesnotclearlyseparateNaessfromreformenvironmentalists,whooftenadvocatepoliciesthatNaesshimselfsupports. Hispositionisonefamiliarinreligiousdiscourse.Whathearguesisthat toomanyenvironmentalistshavethewrongmotivationforpolicies.Itis liketheChristianwhopointsoutthatwhatisvisiblymoralconductmay reflectselfishendsandnotaloveofGod.WhatNaesswantsisachange ofheart,adeepecologicalunderstandingthatwillanchorpoliticalactivismandinsurethatitnotbecooptedbythepresentpowerbrokerswho havecreatedthepresentcrisis.Unlikesomeofhisdisciples,hetriesto avoiddogmatismorabsolutepositions.Thismeanshedgelanguage,as inhisstipulationthathumanscanreducethediversityoflife-formsto meetvitalneeds.Whodefinesvitalneeds?OrdoesNaessonlypointto theobvious—lifelivesonlife.Humanshavetoeat,eitherotheranimals
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orplants.Henotesthattoomanypeopleliveonearthfornonhumanlife toflourish,butsuggestsnowaytoreducethispopulation.Suchanevasionofthemeanstoreducetheearth’spopulationistypicalofmanyenvironmentalists,andonethatoftenseemstoreducesomeoftheirpolicy advocacytopie-in-the-skydreams.4 WhatNaessproposesisanewethicalimperativeorideal.Whathas most engaged other philosophers is his belief that humans can, and should,soidentifywithlifeasawhole,oreventhelife-supportingaspects of the inanimate world, as to gain an expanded human identity, fromwhichwillflow,naturallyandnotasaduty,thechoicesneededto avoidanimpendingecologicalcatastrophe.Thebroadenedconceptionof self-hood,andofrelationshipstofellowlife,willleadtoatypeofselffulfillment,forthetypeofsolidaritywithlifeasawholewillmeanno separationbetweenthehumanandnonhuman.Forhumanswithsuch an expanded identity, the exploitation of the nonhuman world, the use of other life to enhance narrowly selfish human desires, would be self- contradictory.Thus,Naesswantedsuchaconversionintherealityofbeing humanastoobviatenotjustaninstrumentalapproachtononhumanspecies,butalsoanymoralisticapproach,anysenseofobligation,anyguilt, anypatronizingaltruismwhichhefoundinsomanyaffluent,Western environmentalists.Allformsoflifearepartofonefamily,allcousins.He foundsupportforthisinsomenon-Westerntraditions,particularlyhis understandingoftheepicsofancientHinduism. Thisattempttoescapeanthropocentrismsoonbecameatestfordeep ecology.Somecriticsacceptedthesamestandard,yetarguedthatNaess hadnotachievedit,thathisemphasisuponself-fulfillmentwasinsufficientlyemancipatedfromaselfishhumanbias.Butitisfarfromclear whatadeanthropocentrismethicmeans,orwhetheritevenmakessense totrytodivestanethicofahumanperspective.Afterall,Naesswastryingtopersuadehumans,notdogsorhorses,tobuyintoanewethic. Anyethicisadistinctivelyhumancreation,forthecommitmenttosuch anethicrequiresasymboliclanguageandreflectiveself-consciousness, ortraitsthatseemabsentinallotherspecies.Atleastatthelevelofdiscourse,humanscannotescapetheirhumanity.Equallyproblematicisthe suggestionthathumanscansomehowchoosetoexpandtheiridentityto encompassalllife.Maybeafewhumansreallydosoidentify,butitseems inconceivablethatsuchisaproductofchoice.LiketheChristiandoctrine offaith,involvingasitdoesthedeepestlevelsofbeliefandpreference
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andtrust,suchanall-embracingsenseofself,ofsolidaritywithalllife, wouldseemtobe,likeacompleteloveofagod,amatterofgrace,agift forwhichonecouldbethankful,butnotanachievementforwhichone couldtakeanycredit.Ifthisistrue,thenonemight,likeNaess,findsuch alovetobedesirable.Itmightsolvemanyenvironmentalproblems.But anintellectualrespectforsuchanexpandedselfhoodisnotthesameas beingsuchaperson,andlikesainthood,onesuspectsthatfeweverare blessedwithsuchagift.5 EquallydifficulttograspiswhatnotonlyNaessbutenvironmentalists ofmanyschoolssooftenaffirm—theinherentvalueofnonhumanforms oflife,orthe“rights”thatattachtosuchinherentvalue.Itiseasytotalk oftherightofbirdsorbeesorevenroachestoliveandthrive.Butwhat does“inherentvalue”and“rights”mean?Thewordvalueisrich,with manydifferentmeanings.Clearly,dogsandhumansenjoycertainexperiences,suchaseating.Onecouldtalkoffoodashavingintrinsicvalue foreach,foritbringsapleasantexperience.Butsuchvalueinthehaving isnot,initself,ethical,foritinvolvesnoendsembraced,nojudgments ofworth.Humanscanself-consciouslystandapartfromeatingandask questions about long-term consequences, or about harmful effects on otherpeople.Insomecasestheywouldgiveuponthepleasantexperienceinbehalfofmoreimportantexperiences,suchaslivingalonger life, or gaining harmony with one’s neighbors, or enjoying a sense of moralcomplacency,ofhavingsoactedastofulfillone’ssenseofbeauty orofjustice.Mostoften,inmoraldiscourse,theword“value”refersto thegoalofconductthatonehasestablishedthroughmoralevaluations. These,wesay,areourvalues,onesthatwecommittoand,attimes,even fightfor.WhenNaesstalksoftheinherentvalueofnonhumanspecies,he seemstobearguingthathumanswill,asaproductnotjustofsentiment butofmoralcriticism,cometovaluesuchlivesandthustrytoprotect them.Buthemeansabitmorethanjustthis,forinhissystemofethics humanswillcometovaluesuchlivesnotbecauseofwhattheycontributetohumanwelfareorhappiness,notfortheinstrumentalvalueshe findsamong“shallow”ecologists,butbecausetheyarepartandparcel ofourselves,extensionsofouridentity,tiedtoourownhighestlevelof fulfillment.InaKantiansense,tonotworkinbehalfofthewelfareofour extendedselfwouldbeinconsistent,asinconsistentasmakingitarule thatallanimals,includinghumananimals,cankilleachotheratwill. Thisleadstoacockroach’srighttolive.Roacheshavenolegalstand-
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ing.ButNaesssuggeststhattheyshouldhaveamoralstanding.Thisis notfarfromapositionespousedbyWilliamJames.Right,inthiscase, meansthataroach,ifitwereself-conscious,couldaskapotentialhumanexterminatorwhatmoraljustificationtheycouldofferforcausing itpainandthentakingitslife.Howjustifyitssuffering?Ifnocredible justificationcanbeoffered,thentheroachcanarguethatithasaright, meaningamoralclaim,tocontinuedlife,andthatitwouldbeawrongto killit.Arightistheoppositeofawrong.IfonefollowedNaess,thisdoes notmeanthat,inallcases,humanswoulddesistfromkillingroaches. Hisqualification—vitalhumanneeds—mightcomeintoplay.Theroach mightspreadadeadlydisease,asinthepastdidratsandfleas,andinthis casehumansmightkillroachesingoodconscience,despitethepossibilitythatroachesplayacriticalroleinanecologicalcommunity.Butthey wouldhavetoplaceanysuchkillinginamoralcontext,andthusoffer amoraljustification,andforNaessajustificationthatreachedbeyond isolatedhumanneeds.Acquiredhabits,oracquiredtaste(arepugnance atthelooksofafatroach),wouldnotsuffice.
ECOFEMINISM A year after Naess first identified deep ecology, Francoise d’Eaubonne, inFrance,referredtoecofeminisme,andthustriedtotieaformofradical feminismtoanecologicalrevolution.Herlabelcaughtonamonganumberoffeminists.Inmostcases,theywouldagreewiththephilosophical positionaffirmedbyNaess,althoughwithaninsistencethathetoooften ignoredthedominationofmen,notjustoverthenaturalenvironment, butoverwomenaswell.Thetermecofeminismidentifiesasomewhat diverse group of women who have embraced a radical form of environmentalism.Theyhavenottriedtodeveloponeformalphilosophical position, such as that of Naess, and have different philosophical, and often also religious, justifications for their positions. But at one level, theircritiquejoinsthatofNaess.Theycondemnliberalorevensocialist feministsasshallow,forineachcasetheywanttoreformthepresentsystem,toattainequalitywithinitforwomen,butdonotembraceashared commonality with the nonhuman world. Ecofeminists want a deep or radicalfeminismthatwholeheartedlyrejectsmostcontemporaryinstitutions.Thus,theylookforafullculturalshift,atransformationofvalues, thatmatchesthatofNaess.
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Oneverycommonthemeamongavowedecofeministsisthelinkage, inthepresentWesternandcapitalisticculture,betweenthemaledominationofthenonhumanworldandofwomen.Theysuggestthatmale deepecologistscannotfullydeveloptheirunderstandingwithoutsome recognition and acknowledgment of this long-standing relationship. Feminists,withtheirowntwist,emphasizeaperspectivethatiscommon among radical environmentalists—that at least males in theWest have longviewednature,whateveronemeansbythatloadedword,assomethingnotonlyradicallydifferentfromwhatishuman,butoftenalsoas somethingthatstandsinoppositiontohumanaspirations.Itiswild,dangerous,threatening.Nature,asotherness,hastobechallenged,subdued, transformed.Andmuch,theybelieve,intheSemiticreligioustradition hassupportedtheviewthatmenhavedivinepermissiontodominatethe naturalworldandtouseitforhumanends. Ifecofeministshaveanydistinctiveenvironmentaloutlook,itinvolves theirbeliefthatmaleoppressorshaveoftenlinkedwomentonatureas obstacle, foil, or threat.The oppressors believe that women, who bear andnurturechildren,arelessrationalthanmen,aremorepassionateand emotional,closertoanimality.Unlikeliberalfeminists,whoecofeminists caricatureascommittedtoequalityinamale-dominatedworld,ofbecomingmorelikemen,ecofeministsacceptandcelebratefemininedifferences,justastheyemphasizeandcelebratedifferencesamonghumans andotherspecies.Indeed,intheirview,womenareclosertothenatural world,moreeasilyempathizewithotherspecies,aremoresoftandnurturing,ortheverytraitsthatmakesthemmoreopentodeepecology.If theworldistoavoidanecologicalapocalypse,thevaluesoffeminism havetoprevail. Much more than the male advocates of deep ecology, ecofeminists have emphasized what many refer to as “spirituality,” another loaded word.Thus,somefeministshavetriedtoreinterpretChristianmythology, anddisplaceitshistorichierarchicalandallegedantinaturebiases.Othershaveidentifiedwithnature-orientedoranimisticreligions,andhave provided the most critical membership of neopagan sects or modern witchcraftmovements.Theyhavealsoboughtintopostmodernassaults ontypesoflinearrationality,andfearanoverlyscientificmindset,which hasabettedamaleassaultuponthenaturalenvironmentandalsosupportedtypesofmilitarism.Theybelievethatonlywhenmenrecognize andaffirmthefeminineelementsintheirownpersonalities,andallow
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suchinsightstoneutralizetheirpresent“waragainstnature,”willitbe possible for women to end their present feminist crusade and simply mergeintoalargerandholisticecologicalmovement. Manyecofeminists,aswellasmostotherradicalenvironmentalists, believethatthemodernassaultonthenaturalenvironmenthasrootsin the Semitic religions, and particularly in Christianity. Some refer back toanowfamousorinfamousessaywrittenin1967byhistorianLynn WhiteJr.,“TheHistoricalRootsofOurEcologicalCrisis.”Whattheessay lackedinthewayofanuancedunderstandingofthevariedandcomplexSemiticreligions,itmadeupforinprovocativeassertions,fewof which have stood up to later criticism. One issue is reasonably clear: itwouldbeinWestern,Christiansocietiesthatthegreatestinnovations in science and technology would occur, which in turn supported the typeofeconomicgrowththatwouldtransformpatternsofproduction andconsumptioninwesternEuropeandlaterinNorthAmerica.What isnotsocleariswhetherrapideconomicgrowth,market-basedeconomies,highlevelsofconsumption,colonialimperialism,anddeepening environmentalproblemsallderive,directlyorindirectly,eitherfromthe ancientHebrewscriptures,asWhitesuggested,orfromvariousversions ofamonotheisticandpatriarchalgod.Whiteandothersevenreferredto thetwocreationstoriesinthebookofGenesisintheJewishscriptures asfoundationsforadeeplyrootedbeliefthatthenaturalworldwasinferiortothehuman,thathumanshadpoweroverit,andthatitwasa humanobligationtoreproduceandsubduetheearth.Actually,onecan findintherichanddiverseJewishandChristianscripturessomesupport foralmostanyconceivableviewofthenaturalworld.AndasWhiteacknowledgedinthecaseofSt.Francis,onecanfindChristianexamplesof environmentalawareness,justasmanypresentChristianshaveembraced variousformsofenvironmentalism. ThiscritiqueofChristianityorofmonotheismhasjoinedanotherargumentbyWhiteandothers.Infact,itisaviewthatpervadesmuchenvironmentalwritingfromallsides.Thisistheassertionthatpre-Christian andnon-Christianpeopleshadamuchmoreprofoundappreciationof nature,heremeaningthenonhumanworld,thandidChristians.Because they often held aspects of nature sacred, they were therefore more respectfuloftheenvironment.Thismyth,forinlargepartitisamyth,has takentheparticularforminAmericaofenvironmentalistsseekinginthe cultureofNativeAmericansatypeofecologicalwisdomthattheywant
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toemulate.SuchwastheculturaldiversityofNativeAmericans,andsuch wastheirvariedandoftenrecklesstreatmentoftheirownenvironment, thatthesecelebrationsofmoreprimitivesocietiesamounttolittlemore thanafoilforchantingtheinanitiesofthepresent.Seriousscholars,in whatisnowavastandgrowingliterature,haveunderminedanyidealization, on ecological grounds, of primitive peoples or pre-Semitic or Easternreligions.But,clearly,onegroupofpassionateenvironmentalists, thebioregionalists,stillbuyintothismyth.6
BIOREGIONALISMANDSOCIALECOLOGY Bioregionalism,orcloselyrelated,socialecology,arethesomewhatloose namesforthemorepractical,social,orpoliticalexpressionsofdeepecology.Advocatesofbioregionalismoffernotonlyadetailedcritiqueofa present world order headed toward an environmental catastrophe, but alsotrytofillinthecontoursofanewsocialorder.Hereiswheretheir writing is most appealing, for involved in their idealization of small, communal,cooperativesocialunits,tiedtoadistinctiveplacewithadistinctivefloraandfauna,andwithnocentralizedgovernmentorhierarchalsocialorganization,isautopianvision.Butsincetheyareweakestin clarifyinghowpresenthumanitycanmovetosuchaneworder,ormore accuratelymovebacktoanearlierandsimplerwayoflife,whattheyadvocateinalmostallrespectsfitstherootmeaningof“utopia,”whichis “noplace.”Forexample,innoneofeventhemostmoderatecelebrations of bioregions do I find any realistic explanation of how small, largely self-sufficient, and environmentally benign communities can even begintosustainaworldwith6.5billionpeople.Someofthemostradicalbioregionalists,whowanttomovebacktoahuntingandgathering economy,oratleasttosmallagriculturalunits,envisionanidealworld, oneindeedfriendlytootherspecies,whichwould,byanyfairestimate, supportnomorethan100millionpeopleworldwide,orone-sixtiethof thepresentandstillgrowingtotal.Howtogetridofalltheothers,and whowillchoosethesurvivors? Itmightmakemoresensetoviewbioregionalismasaprogramfor thepost-apocalypticearth,oratypeofenvisionednewheaven.Thisisnot theviewofbioregionalists,formostbelieveitisnottoolatetochange, toadoptnewbeliefs,values,andwaysoflivingthatcanassureasustainableandfulfillinglife.Evenifthisisnotpossible,evenifitistoolateto
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forestall a coming catastrophe, it is still worthwhile to find out where andhowhumanitywentwrong,andtotrytoclarifyhowsmall,remnant groups—after widespread famine, disease epidemics, and warfare destroymostofthepresentworldpopulation—canbeginoveragainand, asaravagedearthslowlyregainsitsbalance,doitbetternexttime.The newbeginningwouldfollowvariousenvironmentalcatastrophes,such as enough global warming to destroy most ocean vegetation and lead todepletedoxygenintheatmosphere,orsuchresourcescarcitiesasto bringmostpresentproductiontoahaltandtoleaveafewelitesstrugglingtoretaintheirpoweragainsthungrymultitudes,orafternuclear war,orafterenoughpollutionofsoil,air,andwaterastokilloffmuch ofthepopulationbycancerandrespiratorydiseases. Oneanswerastowhenhumansfirstbegantheirrebellionagainstnature,andtheiralienationfromthesourceoftheirbeing,iswhentheyfirst embracedwhatmostpeoplehavecalledcivilization.ThelatePaulShepard, forexample,idealizedhuntingandgatheringsocieties,andbelievedthe domesticationofanimalsandcropagriculturebeganthehumanassault on what had been stable and harmonious ecosystems. Farmers cleared theforestsfortheircrops,whilesheepandgoatsdenudedgrasslands.It wasnomadicherdsmenwhomovedfrompantheisticandanimisticreligionstoamonarch-likegodwhowasapartfromnature,tocentralized politicalsystems,andtoexpansionandconquestbackedupbymilitary forces.Ahead,insuchviolentcultures,werelargecities,classsystems, mobile populations, parasitic ruling classes, and eventually centralized manufacturinganddistanttrade.Aheadwereeconomicsystemsthatdepended upon continuous growth in production and consumption, on laborasacommodity,onnatureasaresourceforhumansatisfaction,and onvaluesystemstiednottothequalityoflifeinawildernesshome,but tomoreandmoreconsumption.Almostnoone,exceptShepard,literally envisionedareturntohuntingandgathering,althoughmanywanteda regainedappreciationofthevaluesheldbysuchprimitivepeople,afew ofwhomremaininsmallenclavesonthepresentearth. Bioregionalismcombineselementsofpastcommunalandevenanarchist thought with the concerns of deep ecologists. It has many anticipationsandroots.Amongthemarethecelebrationofprimitivelife byRousseau,thesuspicionsofbothmodernagricultureandindustrialismbyThoreau,theantipathytomodernindustrialismandsupportof self-sufficientvillagesbyGandhi,thecooperativeanarchyembracedby
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Kropotkin,nineteenth-centurycommunalismorutopiansocialism,and theregionalismcelebratedbysouthernagrariansinthe1930s.Oneoften overlooked supporter was the nineteenth-centuryAmerican economist HenryC.Carey,whoinhislastyearsemphasizedthenecessaryrecycling ofallwasteproducts(whathecalledmanure),andthedangersoflarge citiesanddistantcommerce,whichledtothelossofearth’sfertility.He idealizedtheNewEnglandvillage,andlocalcommerceamongpeople whomixedintensiveagricultureandsmallmanufacturing. Whatwasnewwasthefocusedemphasisuponenvironmentalissues, andonasustainableeconomicregime.Theword“bioregional”isavariantofecoregionorecosystem.Bioregionalistswanttoorganizesociety arounddistinctivegeographicalareas,thosewithcommonalitiesinflora andfauna,inclimate,andintopography.Theyhavehadgreatdifficulty infindingcriteriaforlocatinganddelimitingsuchbiologicallydistinct regions.Abouttheonlyclearlyboundedsuchregionisanisolatedisland inthemiddleofanocean,orpossiblyavalleyfullysurroundedbyhigh mountains,ifthereareanysuchplaces.Elsewhere,theexactboundaries ofadistinctregionareneververyclear.Definitionscaninvolvecertain mixesofplantsandanimals,orhowtheproportionsmakeupadistinctivecluster.Theycaninvolvetopographicalfeatures,suchasawatershed oravalleyorplateau.Inanycase,theefforttoidentifyregionsisanold one, and regional theories have been very important in the twentieth century. But most earlier definitions of regions had as much a cultural content as a biological one.The word“ecology,” now overused and farfromclear,originatedasawayofidentifyingafieldinbiology,one inwhichscientiststriedtounderstandspeciesasparticipantsinlarger groupsorwholes,andthusmutualinterdependencies.Today,aspartof wildlifemanagement,governmentagenciesoftentrytoidentifybioregionsandtoadaptpoliciesnottothisorthatspeciesbuttoaweboflife that,attimes,hasratherclearboundaries.But,notably,theconcernsof regulatorshelpdeterminewhatconstitutesaregion. Today,biologistshavedevelopedaroughnomenclatureforclassifying differentenvironments,withplantlifeoftenthemajorkey.Thelargest classisoftencalledabiome.Thisincludessuchareasastropicalrainforests,deserts,temperatebroadleafforests,grasslands,tundra,andmixed mountainsystems.Withineachoftheseonecanatleastlooselyidentify bioregionsorecosystems,suchastheupperGreatPlains,orthesouthern Appalachians,orthevalleyofCalifornia.Atabitmorelocallevel,some
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trytoidentifyecocommunities.Butitissimplyimpossibletofindany precisebiologicalcriteria(ratherthanpoliticalcriteria)fordividingup thecontinents.Notably,intheUnitedStates,theEPAhasidentified,on maps,seventy-sixecosystems,theNatureConservancy,sixty-three,anda prominentscientist,onlyforty-seven.Atthelevelofecologicalcommunities,thenumberfortheUnitedStatesrangesashighasonethousand, andwithinthesesomefurtheridentifyvegetativeassociations,including thosethatcontainverylocalizedandendemicspecies. Bioregionalists acknowledge the problem of boundaries, in some casestrytoformulateworkingcriteria,butusuallyfinessetheissue.Locally,peopleoftenhavearatherclearsenseofadistinctiveidentity,and neednotworryaboutboundaryissues.Inthisperspective,thedefinition isclearlyasmuchamatterofself-conception,ofculturalcommonalities, asgeographyorbiology.Thisisreinforcedbytherecommendationofthe leadingpopularizerofbioregionalism,KirkpatrickSale,thatwhenabioregionbecomestoolargeandimpersonal,itseparateintotworegions, withsomewhatfinergeographicalbasesofidentity. Whatiscentraltobioregionalistsisthattheonlywaythathumans cangainafulfillinglifeistobepartofalocalplace,remaininit,come toknowandvalueitslandscapesandwildlife.Theyneedtobesafefrom thedictatesofdistant,centralizedgovernmentsandcorporations.Insuch aregion,peoplecanworkandproduceandexchangegoodswithoutbecomingapartoflarge,impersonalmarkets,andusebarterorlocalforms ofscriptasamediumofexchange.Ifabioregioncontainscities,then thefoodandrawmaterialsneededbyurbanpopulationsshouldlargely comefromtheimmediatearea,andcitypeopleshouldcometoknow andappreciatetheregionalsupportsystemuponwhichtheydepend.The qualityoflife,notthegoodsconsumed,becomesallimportant.Stability, notanendlesspursuitofgrowth,becomesthenorm.Butaboveall,in sucharegionalcontext,peoplecanstopthedrawdownofunrenewable resources,recyclealmostallwaste,maintainrenewableresources,suchas soils,trees,orwater,andsustainallspeciesoflife.AsNaessargued,inthis contexttheycanidentifywithallaspectsofanenvironment,andthus joinapersonalethicwithanenvironmentalone,allasanaturalaspectof everydaylife.Suchpeople,withoutanyclasssystem,withouteconomic greed,cangovernthemselves,largelybyinformalparticipation. Normally, such bioregions will be made up of loosely allied local villagesorurbanneighborhoods,livepeacefullywithneighboringbio-
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regions,andpossiblycarryonsomecommercewiththem.Inanideal world, one made up of such bioregions, there would be no room for nationalpoliticsandinternationaldiplomacy,andatleastfarfeweroccasionsforinternalconflictandaggression,althoughbioregionalistsare notsoirenicastodenythepossibilityofconflictandtheneedforlocal modesofcopingwithit.Bioregionalistsdonotemphasizeculturaluniformityasaprerequisiteofabioregionalsociety.Infact,theystressthe needfordiversity,notonlyinfloraandfauna,butinhumanbackgrounds andskills.Whattheydeploreishierarchalrelationships. The bioregionalist dream, even though in some sense pastoral and reactive,isaboutasradicalasanyprogramonecouldenvision.Forthis reason,theproblemishowtomovefromapresentsocialordertoanew, simpler,andverydifferentone,involvingtremendousshiftsinbothvaluesandbehavior.Presentsocietieshavedevelopedtheirinstitutions,and theirbeliefsystems,overcenturies.Thesearealwayscomplex,withmany interactionsnotfullyunderstooduntilsomeonetriestochangethem.As theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangehaspointedoutinseekingwaystoreducegreenhousegasemissions,somuchofourpresent socialorderisallbutlockedintoplace.Thebestexampleofthisistheautomobile,nowubiquitousinallaffluenteconomiesandeagerlydesired inunderdevelopedones.Notonlyisitbuiltintopeople’sconceptionof agoodlife,itissoinvolvedwithmoderneconomiesthatitisdifficult toconceiveofanyrapidtransitiontoadifferenttransportationregime withoutextremedislocations,rampantunemployment,andintensehumansuffering.Wecandreamofabettersystem,butinthenearfuture, if we are to prevent global warming, we have to find ways of making automobilesmoreenvironmentalfriendly,notabolishingthem.Tothink otherwiseistoflirtwithhopelessillusions. Theotherproblemthatfacesbioregionalistsisademographicone.It istruethatthe20percentofpeoplewholiveinaffluentsocietiescould live well with less than half their present consumption of goods and services.Iftheycouldfindawaytoengineeratransitiontosuchasocietywithoutunbearablepenaltiestoapartofthepopulation(thatisthe rub), they could dramatically reduce the draw down of nonrenewable resourcesandthepresentfloodofwasteandpollution.Butsuchanoption,unrealisticasitmaybe,isnotopentothe80percentofpeoplewho consumelessthanatenthasmuchasthoseinhighlydevelopedsocieties.Atpresent,forexample,muchoftheworld’spopulationwoulddie
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ofstarvationwithoutthecontinuationofamechanizedandchemically buttressedformofagriculture.Withpresentdemographictrends,most oftheworld’speoplewilleitherhavetoimportfoodfromcountrieswith suchadevelopedagriculture,orelsemovetothesametypeofagriculture themselves.Inshort,nobioregionaliststrategycanfitaworldof6.5billionpeople. Suchutopianvisionsdonotmeanthatbioregionalistsdonottryto relatetheiridealstopresentrealities.Whentheydoso,theyhavetosuggestresistancetothepresentsystem,oranenvironmentalactivismnotall thatdifferentfromreformenvironmentalists,butwithitacontinuedefforttopersuadeotherstobuyintothebioregionaldream.LikeChristians whodreamofafutureheaven,theyenlistinthecauseinthepresentand, despiteallthefrustrations,despiteculturaltrendsthatseemtoallpointin anoppositedirection,nonethelessgainasenseofcommunity,aqualityof enhancedexperienceinthestruggle,asdoenvironmentalistsofallpersuasions.Infact,asthehistoryofidealism,ofutopianaspirations,reveals,the greatestheavenisintheprocess,nottheeverpostponedvictory.7
GREENPEACE Inonesense,themostsociallyactiveenvironmentalistsofferasignificant challengetotherestofsociety,notbecauseofanytheory,butbecauseof whattheydo.Yet,onehastoconcedethatenvironmentalactionmakes up a continuum from the recycling of household wastes, to lobbying inbehalfofnewlaws,tosabotagingloggingequipment.Environmentalprotestmayleadtononviolentlawbreaking,oractionthatinvolves thedestructionofpropertyortheriskofbodilyharm.Theboundaries are not always sharp, as the following discussion will make clear. In a sense,nonviolentenvironmentalprotest,atleastonalargescale,began inCanadain1969withwhatsoonbecameGreenpeace.Sabotagebegan adecadelater,withalooselyaffiliatedgroupofindividualswhoreferred tothemselvesasEarthFirst! In1969,agroupofVancouverenvironmentalists,mostmembersof alocalchapteroftheSierraClub,formedacommitteetoopposeundergroundnucleartestsbytheUnitedStatesonAmchitkaIslandintheAleutians.Theyreflectedwidespreadconcernabouttheeffectofthetests,and widespread student protests, particularly on theWest Coast of Canada andtheUnitedStates.In1970and1971,thegrowingVancouvercom-
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mitteetriedtoraiseneededsupporttosendashipintotheclosedzone around the tests, and thereby try to stop the testing.The effort gained widespreadsupportandpressexposure.InSeptember1971,thegroup finallywasabletocharterafishingboat,renameittheGreenpeace,andsail forAmchitka.Insomeways,theeffortwasadisaster.Badseasdelayedits arrival,theUnitedStatespostponedthenexttest,andthecrew,madeup ofvolunteers,hadtolandonanislandandwerepromptlyarrestedona technicality.Buttheeffortgainedenormoussupport,particularlyinCanada,includingwellwishesfromCanadianprimeministerPierreElliott Trudeau.InVancouver,theorganizingcommitteewasabletochartera secondship(eventuallycalledGreenpeaceII),butbecauseofwinterweatheritnevercamewithinsevenhundredmilesofwhatturnedouttobethe finaltestonAmchitka.Nomatter.Theadversepublicityandworldwide protestshelpedpersuadetheUnitedStatestoendthesetestsandconvert theislandintoabirdsanctuary.By1972theVancouvercommitteehad incorporatedasaneworganization,theGreenpeaceFoundation. Thefoundationquicklygrewintoaninternationalfederation,with Greenpeace organizations in most industrialized countries.The fumblingprotestsintheAleutiansledtoevenbetterpublicized,andpolitically much more influential, protests of French atomospheric nuclear tests(thelastsuchanywhere)onMururoaAtolintheSocietyIslandsin theSouthPacific.In1973,aretiredVancouverbusinessmanandfamed athlete,DavidMcTaggart,agreedtocrossthePacificinathirty-eight-foot sailboattotryandblockthetests.Again,thisseemedafutileeffortfrom thebeginning.ButthepublicityforGreenpeaceIIIsoonhadinternational implications.InJuly1974McTaggartandhiscrewmadeittotherestrictedarea(whichlargelyinvolvedinternationalwaters),butaFrenchmilitaryshiprammedthesmallboat.IthadtolimpintoaNewZealandport, itscrewnowheroesinbothNewZealandandAustralia.Asalways,the Greenpeacecrewhadfilmedeverything,andMcTaggartlaterwondamagesfromtheFrenchgovernment.Evenbeforehecouldrepairhisboat, severalNewZealandshipssailedforthetestingzone.TheFrenchboarded suchboatsandremovedthemfromthearea,saveforoneNewZealand militaryshipthatinvadedtheareaasatokenprotestandthenleft. Greenpeace,byitseffort,hadhelpedtriggeraworldwideprotestof theFrenchtests,andintheprocesstremendouslyincreaseditsownprestige.InbothNewZealandandAustralia,conservativegovernmentsfell,in partbecausetheoppositionpartieshadbackedtheprotests.InFrance,an
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anti-testingmovementalmostledtotheoverturnoftheGaullistgovernment.ButbythetimeofthefinalseriesofFrenchatmospherictests,only arepairedGreenpeaceIIIwasinthetestzone.Frenchcommandosboarded theboatandseverelybeatthecrew.However,theresultingfilmofwhat happenedhaditsintendedeffectonworldopinion.Anothership,named theGreenpeaceIV,replacedGreenpeaceIIIbutarrivedafterthelasttest,forin 1974France,badgeredbyworldwidecondemnation,announcedtheend of atmospheric testing. It continued to test underground, though, and thisledtoamuchmoreseriouslaterconfrontationwithGreenpeace. In1985thenowmuchstrongerGreenpeace,withbranchesinmost countries,decidedtosenditslargestship,theRainbowWarrior,totherestrictedareaaroundMorurua.Thiswaspartofanefforttohaltaseries ofundergroundtests.TheFrenchgovernmentdecidedtoreverttoovert terroristtacticstoblocktheship.Whileitwasanchoredintheharborof Aukland,NewZealand,completingfinalprotestplans,twoFrenchagents plantedtwotimebombsundertheship’shull.Theresultingexplosions sanktheship,withonedeathamongthoseonboard.TheFrenchgovernmentatfirstdeniedanyinvolvement,butNewZealandcapturedtwo oftheFrenchagentsinvolved,andnewspaperssoonunearthedthetrue story.TheFrenchofficialswhoorderedtheattackadmittedwhathadhappenedandresignedtheirministries,buttheFrenchpresident,François Mittertand,andtheprimeministerdeniedearlierknowledgeoftheplan andsurvivedthescandal.France,ofcourse,offereditsabjectapologiesto NewZealand,butitcontinuedtheundergroundtests.Greenpeaceonce again gained wonderful publicity, but in France public hostility soon forcedit,temporarily,tocloseitsParisoffices. Adecadebefore,by1975,Greenpeacehadperfecteditsformofnonviolentconfrontation.Itinsistedthatitwouldnotdoanythingtoendangerhumanlivesandwouldnotsabotageanyproperty.Butinitsprotests itclearlyviolatedlocallawsorregulationsthatitconsideredunjust.It wasfortunateinitsearlytargets,andadeptatgainingpublicattention.In 1975itmadewhalingitstarget,andparticularlythelargeRussianwhalingfleetsinthePacific.Itrefurbishedtwoearlierships,renamedthemthe GreenpeaceVandVI,andwasabletointercedebetweenwhalesandaRussian fleet, eventually forcing it to leave the area.At the time, whaling was a populartargetintheWest.GreenpeacelatertriedtodothesamewithJapanesefleets.Inasmallway,ithelpedgainamoratoriumonwhalingbythe InternationalWhalingCommission,abanneverfullyenforced.
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Itsnexttargetwasperhapsevenmorepopular.Thiswasitseffort,beginningin1975,tostopthekillingofharpsealpups,largelybyNorwegians,offthecoastofLabrador.Thesebeautifulwhitepupswereclubbed todeathinordertoharvesttheirvaluablefur.Bynow,Greenpeacehadthe fundstorentahelicoptertolocatetheharvestcrewsandlandprotesters nearby.Indoingthis,itviolatednewCanadianregulations.Greenpeace activistswerenotabletosavemanypups,buttheirfilmingofthebloody slaughterledtoaninternationalcrusade,whicheventuallyalmostforced Canadatogiveprotectiontotheseals.Ironically,theendofclubbingled toarapidincreaseinharpsealpopulationsandnewenvironmentalproblems.Thus,underbetterregulations,thekillingshaveresumed—andso haveprotestsbyenvironmentalists. After 1975, Greenpeace subtly changed its tactics. It continued its nonviolentprotests,asatMoruruain1985,butmoreandmoreitsought politicalsolutionstoenvironmentalproblems,andinCanadawasmore successfulinlobbyingCanadianofficialsthaninprotectingsealsontheice. Today,Greenpeace,withover2millionmembersworldwide,isperhaps best described as the most aggressive of the mainstream environmental organizations.ItsmembershipoftenoverlapsGreenpoliticalparties.Itis oftenfirstonthesceneofenvironmentaldisasters,suchasoilspills,and hascontinuedtoorganizepeoplemostaffectedbyairorwaterpollution, buttosomeradicalactivistsitseemsarathermildorganization. NotsoonestillsmallsplinterfromGreenpeace.PaulWatsonwasvery much involved in the harp seal campaign of Greenpeace. But he soon despairedofanysuccesswithoutamoreviolentformofactivismanda moreactivedefianceoflaws.OffLabrador,hedestroyedsomeclubsused onthebabyseals.In1977theGreenpeaceFoundationexpelledWatson, inwhatbecameanastydispute.Hesoonoutfittedhisownship,theSea Shepherd,andcreatedatinyorganizationnamedafterit.Heusedthissmall shipforviolentformsofprotest.Itsanktwounoccupiedwhalingships inIceland,andrammed,andbadlydamaged,twoJapanesedriftnetfishingshipsinthePacific.Inallsuchcases,Watsonarguedthathissmallsocietyhadnotviolatedanylaws,buthadenforcedinternationalmaritime conventionswhenthesignatorynationswouldnotdoso.Bycarefully selectinghistargets,hewasabletoavoidarrestbecauseoftheelements ofguilt,andunwantedpublicity,onthepartofhistargets.Butinasense itwasWatsonwhoinitiatedenvironmentalcampaignsbasedonsabotage. Hissocietyisstillactivein2006.8
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EARTHFIRST! EarthFirst!isanevenmoreradical,land-basedassociation.Itbeganin 1979amongagroupofwildernessadvocates,includingmembersofthe WildernessSociety.ItsleaderwasDaveForeman,whowouldlaterserve jail time for a conspiracy to sabotage nuclear plants.A small group of deeply committed environmentalists decided to form an action group or circle, but not to create a formal or chartered organization. Its first nationalgathering,in1981,wasatthemuch-hatedGlenCanyonDam. Technically,EarthFirst!hasnomembersandnoofficers.Thisdeliberate choiceofanonorganizationeliminatedanytargetforlaw-enforcement agencies.All action taken by those who identify with Earth First! is in theirindividualcapacity.Thus,somewhosupporttheassociationdonot participateinlaw-breakingactivities.A1976novelbyEdwardAbbey,The MonkeyWrenchGang,inspiredtheformationofEarthFirst!andprovideda guidebookforsomeofitstactics.Abbeywasaphilosophicalanarchist,and aferventdefenderofwilderness.Inhisnovel,agroupofeco-guerrillas destroy heavy road-building machinery at CombWash, somewhere in Utah.9 Earth First! resembles the civil rights and New Left movements of the1960s.Itsleaders,anditsTheEarthFirst!Journal,advocatedeepecology,appealtoeco-feminists,andlaudbioregionalism.Itsfirstlovewas wilderness,old-growthforests,andbiodiversity,butithasfoughtagainst dams,nuclearplants,androad-building.Mostofitsactivismhasbeenin theAmericanWest,withitsgreateststrengthinthePacificCoaststates. Althoughithaslobbiedforlegislation,itsdistinctivemethodhasbeen civil disobedience, often leading to mass arrests. Like so many of the activistsofthe1960s,ithasacounter-culturalcomponent.Itholdsanationalgatheringeachyear,atdifferentsites,theRoundRiverRendezvous. There,seriousenvironmentalplottingisjoinedwithafestive-likeatmosphere,includingprotestpoemsandsongsandguerrillatheater. For many in Earth First!, the limits of protest involve civil disobedience, with no threat to lives or property. Earth First! gained its first nationalpublicitybyaseriesofprotestsandinterventionsinbehalfof old-growthforestsinOregonandCalifornia.Thisinvolvedblockadesof bridgestostoptimbertrucks,humanscreensaroundthreatenedtrees, chainingprotestorstotrees,ortreesittinginplatformsbuilthighupin thebranches.Suchtactics,asoftenintended,ledtomassivearrests,over-
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crowdedlocaljails,andembarrassedlocalofficials,pluswhatEarthFirst! believedtobewonderfulnationalpublicityforitscause.Onsomeissues, suchasprotectingold-growthredwoodsinnorthernCalifornia,itwon numerousalliesandhadsomesuccessingainingprotectivelegislation. But,asawhole,EarthFirst!membersdonottrustgovernmentagencies, andhavehadendlessbattleswiththeNationalForestService. ButwhathasmostdistinguishedEarthFirst!isitssupportofsabotageorwhat,followingAbbey’snovel,ismostoftenreferredtoasmonkeywrenching.ThemostactivespokespersonsforEarthFirst!,including Foreman, have been deliberately equivocal about sabotage. Insofar as the association has an official policy, it is that it neither condones nor condemns monkeywrenching.Yet, Foreman wrote essays to define and defendit.Thejournalcarriesregularcolumnsonecotage.Italsopublishesafieldguideonmonkeywrenching.Foremanhasemphasizedthat theobjectismachinery,notpeople.Onetactic—drivingspikesintrees todamagechainsaws—hascausedsomedivisionsamonglocalgroups, becauseitcouldcauseachaintobreakandhurtaworker.Butlogging equipmentandtrucksarefairgame.Foremanandhisdisciplesbelieveit isappropriatetoattachhighcablestotreestopreventcutting.Ortoplay dirtytricksoncorporateofficialsorcompliantgovernmentofficials,such asthrowingmanureintoairconditionerducts.Thejustificationoffered forsuchtacticsisthatwildernessneedshelpindefendingitself,andthat thosewhodestroythewildernessarethetruecriminals. EarthFirst!isnotalone.Severalsmaller,lesspublicizedactiongroups haveresortedtoviolenceintheUnitedStates.Othershavebeenactivein Europeancountries,whereGreenpoliticalpartieshavebeenmuchmore effectivethanintheUnitedStates.But,overall,theheydayofsuchviolent activismseemstobelargelyinthepast.Suchactivistshavebeeneffective inonesense—theyhavefocusedbroadattentiononenvironmentalissues.Buttheirreputationforviolenceandabsolutistpoliciesembarrassed thebroaderenvironmentalmovementandprovidedcoverforpoliticians whoeffectivelyblockednewenvironmentallegislation.
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sIwrotethisbook,overthepastsixyears,Iattimesfeltasenseof hopelessness.Iseenogoodanswerstosomanyproblems,beginningwiththeeffectsofpopulationgrowth.Whatpoliciescanrescuesub- SaharanAfricafromanimpendingenvironmentaldisaster?HowcanIndia gaintheresourcestofeedapopulationthatcouldsoartoover1.5billion before2050?HowcanthefivemostpopulousnationsofAsia(China, India,Indonesia,Pakistan,andBangladesh),with2.83billionpeople,or 45percentoftheworld’stotal,dealwithscarcitiesofwaterandenergy ormitigatetheairpollutionthatischokingalmostallofSouthandEast Asia?Idonotknow.Isuspectnoonedoes. Atpresent,thegapbetweenthefewhighlydevelopedandaffluent countries(15percentofthepopulation)andtherestoftheworldiswidening,notnarrowing,althoughtherapidgrowthinChina,ifitcontinues,maysoonhelpclosethegap.Thegapistwofold—demographicand economic.Almost all the population growth is in the underdeveloped world.Onlythewealthycountrieshavebeenabletodealeffectivelywith arangeofenvironmentalproblems.Andeventhewealthycountries,so far,havefailedtomaketheneededcommitmentstomitigatewhatmight be the most threatening environmental problem of all—global warming.Thehigh-consumingcountrieshavedonethemosttostimulatethe warming, but it will be the poorer countries that will suffer the most fromitseffects.Itisthewealthycountriesthathavelargelyconsumedthe mosteasilyaccessiblefossilfuels,includinguptohalfoftheaccessible petroleum,butitisthedevelopingcountriesthathavethegreatestneed forinexpensiveenergyandwhowillsufferthemostfromitsincreased cost. My failure to anticipate answers to all the looming environmental 279
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problemsdoesnotmeanthathumanswillnotfindsuchanswers.Icannotimaginewhattheywillbe,butwhoin1901couldhaveanticipated halftheinnovationsthatwouldtakeplaceinthenextonehundredyears? Onecanonlyassumethatthepaceofchange,atleastinthedevelopment ofnewtools,willcontinuetoaccelerate.Greatinnovationsinmedicine willextendthespanofhumanlife(whichmightormightnotbeablessing). Genetic engineering may double crop yields. Fusion energy may replaceevermorescarcefossilfuels.Greenhouseemissionsmaydecline, meaningthatneartheendofthiscenturythepaceofwarmingwillbegin toslow.Andmaybe,justmaybe,populationgrowthmayclimaxaround 2050, even though present projections suggest otherwise. Maybe, but maybenot.Icouldpaintanevenmoredramaticallydarkscenario. Ibelievetherearemajorreasonswhythiscenturymaybeoneofthe mostturbulent,andchallenging,ofanyinthelastmillennium.Human civilizations go back only about six or seven millennia.The great periodofgrowthinhumanpopulationsandconsumptiongoesbackonly twocenturies.Inthesetwocenturies,humanshavegainedanenormous powertoshapethephysicalworldtosuittheirgoals.Neverhasonespeciessodominatedtheearth.Whatnecessaryconditionssupportedthis dominance?Inonesense,thenatureoftheearthitself,itstemperature range,itsoceansandfreshwater,itsuniqueatmosphere,allarenecessary conditions, but I take those as givens and unlikely to disappear in the future(evenwhenmuchoftheairandwatermaybecomemoreseverely polluted). Alsonecessary,butlikewiseagiven,isthespecialnatureofhumans. Wearetheonlyanimalthatgraduallylearnedtotalkandtoconceptualize.Thekeywasasymboliclanguage,andtheuseofsounds(words)as symbolsofnotonlyobjectsbutofrelationships.Thismeantanewform of self-consciousness, a much more nuanced ability to coordinate activitiesortocreatenewandbettertools,theabilitytoretainandutilize cumulativememoriesofeventsinthedistantpast,andtoprojectgoals farintothefuture.Aboveall,languagegavehumansthepowertomake enormouschangesintheworldaroundthem,andthustoadapttorapidlychangingenvironments.Theyhaveadaptedwithunbelievablesuccessand,attimesintentionally,atothersunintentionally,havechanged theearthmorethanallotherspeciescombined. WhatIwanttostressarefivelesssecureconditionsthatIthinkhave beenvital.Thefirstandmostoftenoverlookedconditionhasbeenthe
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unusually stable interglacial climate of the last ten millennia. Only in thelasttwentyyearshasresearchrevealedhowrareissuchaperiodof climatestabilityinourageofperiodicglaciers.Asecondnecessaryconditionisthehugestorehouseofnutrientsthathaveaccumulatedinthe earth’ssoils(thegreatsoilbank)andtheknowledgeandtoolsandenergy thathaveallowedhumanstoexploitthatsoilintheproductionoffood. Thethirdnecessaryconditionisthegreatenergystoragebank—theeasilyavailablefossilfuelsthathaveaccumulatedoverthelast500million years.Thefourthconditionhasbeentheenormousexpansionofhuman knowledgeaboutallaspectsofthephysicaluniverse,andthenewtools thathumanshavedevelopedtomakeuseofthisscientificrevolution.A final necessary condition has been the advance in medical knowledge andinpublichealthmanagement.Ofthesefiveconditions,thefirstthree arenowlesssecurethaneverbefore,andacontinuedenjoymentofthe fruitsofthelasttwoaredependentuponasocialandpoliticalorderthat mightnotsurvivesevereenvironmentaldisruptions. For at least the last five thousand years, and for the most part the lasttenthousandyears,themeanclimatefortheearthasawholehas remainedcloseto13.8C(oralmost57F).Deviationshaveremained within 1C above or below this mean, at least until very recently (in 1998 and again in 2005, the hottest years on record, the global temperature soared to over 14.5C). Even relatively minor shifts have had enormoussignificanceregionally.Shiftsinrainfallpatternsundermined ancientcivilizations.Butoveralltheclimateremainedclosetothemean, while the volume of ocean water has remained near constant for five thousandyears(localsealevelshiftshavebeenmuchmoredramatic,but thesehaveresultedfromtectonicuplift,subsidence,oraspringbackof landformerlydepressedundertheWisconsinglacier). This stability may be almost over, as the earlier chapters on rapid climatechangeandglobalwarminghavedemonstrated.Sofar,theaverage warming has remained below 1C, or no more than the shift toward a colder climate in the little ice age from the fourteenth to the nineteenth century. But increasingly plausible temperature predictions forthiscenturywillentailabreakfromthatsmalldegreeofvariation, withawarmingpossiblyashighas3C.Anincreaseofthepresentglobal meantemperaturetoatleast16C(or60F)isalmostassured.Sincethe warming will be, as at present, more concentrated in higher northern latitudes,thechangescouldmeanrapidanddrasticecologicalshiftsand
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massive extinctions. Human adaptations will have to exceed those for any climate-related changes within historical memory.And because of theearth’spopulation,suchchangeswillnotbeeasy.Forexample,massivemigrationsfromareasdenudedbydecreasedrainfall,orcursedwith unprecedentedfloods,willbealmostimpossible.And,alwayslurkingas adarkshadowisthepossibilitythatthedegreeofwarmingwillcross majorthresholds,particularlyinvolvingoceancurrents,andthusleadto rapidclimatechangeinafewyearsorafewdecades. Theearth’sgreatsoilbankisnowmuchdepletedofitsnaturalnutrients.Thisistruealmosteverywhere,particularlyinthemostproductive agriculturalareas.Inmuchoftheunderdevelopedworld,thelosshasresultedfromerosionandovercropping.Herethesoilsareoftendegraded. Inrichagriculturalareas,thenaturalnutrientshavebeenusedup,but replacedannuallybychemicalfertilizers.Nolongerdofarmershaveto awaittherecoveryofnutrientsthroughnaturalprocesses,suchasvulcanism,rockweathering,andorganicdecay.Thephosphorusandpotash comefromfinitedeposits,mostnitrogenfromtheair,atthecostofenormousamountsofenergy.Iamnotsuggestingthatthisartificialsupply willsoonexpire,orthatagriculturewillhavetogothroughanydrastic changesinthiscentury.Itisevenpossiblethatgeneticmodificationswill allowanewsurgeinproductivity.NoramIsuggestingthattheearthwill notbeabletogrowtheneededfoodsforevenamuchexpandedglobal population.Butacrossmuchoftheearth,particularlyinareasofcontinuedrapidpopulationgrowth,asinAfrica,India,andmostIslamiccountries,residentswillnotbeabletodevelopnewsoils,findenoughwater forincreasedirrigation,orhavethemoneytobuyneededfertilizers.This meansincreasedhunger(asisalmostannuallythecasenowincentralor easternAfrica)ormassiveimportsoffoodorfoodaidfromdeveloped countries,andineithercaseincreasedpoliticaldiscontent. Few people appreciate how much inexpensive fossil fuels have underwrittenmoderneconomicgrowthandhighlivingstandardsinthe developed world. Before 1800, biomass provided most hydrocarbons consumed by humans.This gradually changed with the perfection of thesteamengine,withcoalbecomingthemostusedfuelinindustrializing countries in the nineteenth century in both manufacturing and in railroads and shipping. Petroleum became the dominant fossil fuel in the twentieth century. Oil-fueled engines (gasoline and diesel) not only transformed the transportation sector (railroads, ships, airplanes,
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automobiles,andtrucks),butmadepossible,alongwithchemicalsand genetic research, the agricultural revolution that today enables farmers tofeedapopulationofover6billion.Upto77percentofproductive energyisnowbasedonfossilfuels.Beforethiscenturyisover,thatpercentagewillalmosthavetodecrease,withpetroleumthefirsttofacescarcitiesbecauseofshrinkingreserves.Nogreaterchallengefaceshumans todaythanfindingwaystomakethetransitiontoothersourcesofenergy. Atpresent,noeasychoicesareavailable.Thatis,inexpensivealternative energysourcesintheamountneededtomaintainthegrowingnumber ofhumansonearth,evenatpresentlivingstandards,arestilltobediscoveredorperfected. Ifhumans,inthiscentury,aretomoveclosertosustainableeconomies(wearefarfromthattoday),thentwoverydifficultchangeshave tooccur.Idoubttheywilloccurvoluntarilyandpreemptively.First,the countries with per capita PPP incomes under $5,000 (one-eighth that of the United States) need to raise their level of consumption and do thiswithoutwhatcouldquicklybecomegrowth-limitingenvironmental destruction. China is the best example of a country that has just now reachedsuchalevelofincome,butbymeansthatarefarfromsustainable. China has one leg up on most underdeveloped countries. It has almostattainedastablepopulation.Itwillbealmostimpossibleforother underdevelopedcountriestomatchtherecentachievementofChinawith acontinuationofpresentbirthrates.Or,asinsomepartsofcentralAfrica, ifthepopulationgrowthendsbecauseofAIDS-inducedhighermortality rates,thendiseasewillmakehigherlivingstandardsimpossible. Theotherchangeinvolvesthedevelopedcountries,andparticularly thosewithPPPincomesabove$15,000.Theyhavemadethegreatestassaultonresources,particularlyenergysuppliesandsoilfertility.Notonly havetheyclearedthegreatestexpansesoftheearth’sformerforests,but theynowsupplymostofthemarketforlumberfromthedeforestationof tropicalrainforestsinpoorcountries.Theyfacenopopulationproblem. Theyhavehadthemeanstoalleviatetheworstenvironmentalproblems intheirowncountries,buttheycontinuetoconsumeuptofifteentimes asmuchenergyasthepoorestcountriesandtoemituptotwo-thirdsof allgreenhousegases.Theyproducedmostofthehalocarbonsthatthreatentheozonelayer.Forthesecountries,thedifficulttransitionwillinvolve major changes in the type and amount of consumption.Without this transition,anythingclosetoasustainableworldeconomywillbeimpos-
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sible,evenifsuchwealthycountriesareabletokeeptheirpresentpattern ofrisingconsumption,orwhattheycallgrowth,goingfortherestofthis century.Idoubtthattheycanevendoitforthatlong. I think the American economy illustrates this problem. If actively stimulatedbyeffectiveadvertising,itseemsthathumanshaveanalmost limitlessdesireforgoodsandservices.WhatAmericansconsumewould haveastounded,andprobablyhorrified,anAmericanofonlyahundred years ago. Economists have always assumed that the demand for some typesofconsumptionwereinelastic.Food,forexample,shouldreacha pointofsatiation,beyondwhichapersonwouldnotpurchasemoreofa perishableproduct.EventhisdoesnotseemtobetrueinAmerica,where obesity has become a major health hazard. It would seem to be good publicpolicytopersuadeAmericanstoeatless.Inthesamesense,based on worldwide realities, it would seem highly desirable thatAmericans consumelessenergy,emitlessCO2,andaccumulatelesswaste. But how to move from a growth-oriented economy, one that depends on consumer confidence and consumer purchases to keep it all going?Howcanacountrymovetoano-growtheconomy,letaloneto aneconomywithlessconsumption?Onedefinitionofsuchamoveis “recession.”Oneproductisfewerjobs,lowerprofits,lessincentivesfor investment.Individualswhoresistthelureofluxuryconsumption,who adoptasimplelife,whohavefewwants,areoftendeemedtraitorstoour system,eventhoughtheymaybehappierthanthoseinthemiddleof theratrace.Whatifeveryonetookavowtolivesimply,insmallhomes, usingonlypublictransportation,preparingallfoodathome,eschewing allredmeats,usingnocosmeticsorbeautyaids,buyingnojewelry,and ignoringallthesillychangesinfashion?Ourpresenteconomywould collapse.Inoursystem,onerequirementofcitizenshipistobuyallyou canafford,orattimesmorethanonecansafelyafford.Hereistheengine ofprogress. Orsoitseems.Isthereanywaytoreversethepattern?CanAmericans gradually reduce the level of consumption, at least of material goods ifnothumanservices?Cantheyuselessresources?Idonotknow.So muchofourpresentwayoflifeisdeeplyembodiedinlearnedhabits, sointegraltoourwholeculture,soessentialtoafree-marketeconomy, that it would take a major shift in beliefs and values, a major shift in oureconomicinstitutions,tomovetoano-growthsociety.Ifthetotal productgoesdown,thenmajorproblemsofequitybecomeinescapable.
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Foranyeconomicjustice,evenforhumanereasons,asmallereconomic piewillhavetobemoreequallydistributed,orelsealreadylow-income Americanswillbearthebruntoftheshifttolessconsumption.Also,less American production could have disastrous effects on foreign populations,includingthosedependentonoursurplusfood.Andwiththepresenteconomicproductivity,basedonefficienttools,well-trainedworkers, and the controlled burning of fossil fuels, any slowing of growth, let alonenegativegrowth,couldleadtomassiveunemploymentorunderemployment. American agriculture illustrates the problem. More than any other sector,ithasaccountedfortheeconomicgrowthAmericanshaveexperiencedsinceWorldWarII.Innoothersectorhasproductivityperworker risensomuch,althoughafewmanufacturingindustrieshavecomeclose. Lessthanamillionveryefficientfarmersproducemostofourfoodanda largesurplusforexport.Itseemsthatthenumberoffarmsandfull-time farmerscouldnotgolower,butitcontinuestodrop,althoughslowly.A formerlylabor-intensivesectorhasbecomecapitalintensive.Couldwe goback?Couldwereallyregainthetraditionalfamilyfarm?Couldwedo without the chemicals that sustain modern industrial agriculture—the pesticidesandfertilizers?Notwithoutalargeincreaseinthecostoffood (asillustratedbyorganicallygrownfoods).Itseemsnothinglessthana pipedreamtosuggestthatAmericansgobacktoanagriculturewithless machines,lessuseoffossilfuels,lesschemicals,andmorehumanmuscle power. Someofthesameproblemsconfrontextractiveindustriesandmanufacturing.Newtools(capital)fueledbyhydrocarbonshavecreatedsuch productiveefficiencythatavastmajorityofpeopleinwealthycountries havetoworkinserviceindustries.Moderneconomicgrowthhasbeen, ineffect,theshiftingofproductivework(thecreationofphysicalconsumeritems)fromhumanmusclestomachines.Noendseemsinsight, for every year the number of laborers needed to extract minerals and fossilfuels,andtofabricateproducts,declines.ButitiscompletelyunrealistictoexpectAmericanstomovebacktolocalshops,exceptforafew handicraftproductsforaluxurymarket. ItisequallyunrealistictoexpectAmericanstomove,ingreatnumbers,backtopublictransport,andthustoreducethenumberofautomobiles.Sofar,ithasbeenimpossibletogetthemtobuysmall,fuel-efficient motorvehicles.Americansnowownover220millionmotorvehicles,or
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nearlytwoperfamily.Thenumberkeepsgrowingfasterthanthepopulation.Initstotaleffectonresourceuse,theautomobileleadsallother innovations. It marked the greatest change in how people live in the developedcountriesinthetwentiethcentury.Ithasprovidedatypeof mobility that almost no one would relinquish. One of the compelling desiresofpeopleinunderdevelopedcountriesistheabilitytoownan automobile, and it seems likely that in this century the fastest growth inthenumberofmotorvehicleswillbeinthedevelopingworld.Butif anythingisclearitisthattheearthdoesnothavetheresourcestopermitallhumanstoenjoythesamenumberofautomobilesasdopresent Americans. Economically, the great gap in incomes between affluent and poor countries offers benefits as well as challenges to rich countries. Poor countriesusefewerresources,emitfewergreenhousegases,andoutof desperateneedalmosthavetoexportrawmaterialsandfuelstoindustrializedcountries.Lookatoil.MostreservesareinIslamiccountriesofthe MiddleEast.Suchcountriesneedtopreservethispreciousassettomeet their own future needs, or until it is so scarce that they can exchange itformuchmoregoodsthanatpresent.Butpoorcountriescannotaffordthisluxury,evenastheycannotaffordnewenvironmentalcontrols. Noneofthethreelargestoil-producingcountries—SaudiArabia,Kuwait, andIraq—areself-sufficientinfoodproduction.Theyhavetoselloilto survive.Theiroilprovidesaffluentcountrieswiththeenergyneededto prolongorevenfurtherenhancetheirpresentlivingstandards,andoffersthemmoretimetodeveloprenewablealternativestofossilfuels.For many environmental problems, such as global warming, air pollution, tropicaldeforestation,andspeciesextinctions,nothingismorethreateningthanrapidgrowthinbothpopulationandincomesinAfrica,Asia, andLatinAmerica,andparticularlyinIndiaandChina. Thus, the dilemma.The more the underdeveloped world becomes likeus,theworsetheprospectsforasustainableearth.Itisthelackof rapideconomicdevelopmentintwo-thirdsoftheworldthatprolongs theopportunityforwealthycountriestocontinueeconomicgrowthand alsotomitigatelocalenvironmentalproblems.Itisconcurrentgrowth inallcountriesthatwillsoonforcehumanstoconfrontcertainultimate limitstothetypesofeconomicgrowthnowsovaluedeverywhere. Hereisthemoralchallenge.Partofhumanityhasmovedinthelast centuryfarbeyondthenormalscarcitythatallnonhumanspecieshave
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alwaysconfronted—fartherthananyoneeverdreamedpossible.Almost allhumanshavemovedabitawayfromtheworstformofscarcityand baresubsistenceincomes.Butmosthumansstillremainperilouslyclose tosuchalevelofscarcity.Theyalwayshave.Behindthesmallgainsfor mostandtheimmensegainsofthefewarethenonrenewableresources contributedbypastlife,whethersoilsenrichedbydecayingvegetation or the coal, oil, and natural gas that formed in swamps and bogs and lagoons.Themorehumanswholiveatasubsistencelevel,themoreof theseresourcesthatareavailabletothosewithhighlevelsofhumanand material capital. But can the affluent rest at ease and continue to enjoyhighlivingstandardswiththeknowledgethattherearenotnearly enoughresourcesforallhumanstojoininthefeast?Andinsuchaworld, howlongwilltheaffluentbesafeattheirbanquet?
Notes 1.OurGreenPlanet Thischapteramountstoasynthesisofanenormousrangeofscientificdisciplines.Ihaveabsorbedinformationfrommanysources,includingevenstandard textbooks.Butmyemphasisupontheroleoflifeintheevolutionoftheearthdoes reflectaratherrecentemphasisamongsomescientists,andonethatisstillthe occasionofmuchcontroversy.Iofferamoredetailedanalysisoftheseissuesina discussionofJamesLovelock’sGaiahypothesisinchapter10.Iwillindicatebelow afewbooksthatoffermuchmoredetailedinformationaboutourgreenearth. 1.HerbertFriedman,SunandEarth(NewYork:ScientificAmericanLibrary,1986). 2.TwogeneralintroductionstoplatetectonicsareJonErickson,PlateTectonics: UnravelingtheMysteriesoftheEarth(NewYork:FactsonFile,2001);KentC.Condie, PlateTectonicsandCrustalEvolution,4thed.(Boston:ButterworthHenemann,1997). 3.AnintroductiontoourmagneticfieldsisKnoepfelHeinz,MagneticFields:A ComprehensiveTheoreticalTreatiseforPracticalUse(NewYork:Wiley,2000). 4.The book that I found most helpful for this chapter isTylerVolk, Gaia’sBody:TowardaPhysiologyofEarth(NewYork:Springer-Verlag,1998).Thisbook comesclosesttoreflectingmyemphasisupontheroleoflifeintheearth’sevolution,andinanengagingstyleintroduceslayreaderstoallthechemicalcycles thatsustainlife. 5.Volk’sworkissupplementedbyDavidSchwartzman,Life,Temperature,andthe Earth(NewYork:ColumbiaUniv.Press,1999). 6.Volk,Gaia’sBody. 7.Ibid.
2.Population,Consumption,andtheEnvironment The challenges enumerated in this chapter make up the issues addressed in muchmoredetailinlaterchapters.Thetwoexceptionsareworldpopulations and world incomes, which are a backdrop to all the issues.The literature on populationgrowthisenormous,asistheoftenhighlytheoreticalapproachto demographictransitions.
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1.ThedataformybriefintroductionandanalysiscamefromUnitedNationsPopulationDivision,WorldPopulationProject:The2002ReviewandWorldPopulation Project,February22,2004,andWorldPopulationProspects:The2004Revision,September 19,2005;AnupShah,EcologyandtheCrisisofOverpopulation:FutureProspectsforGlobal Sustainability(Cheltenham,U.K.:EdwardElgar,1998);K.BruceNewbold,SixBillionPlus:PopulationIssuesintheTwenty-FirstCentury(NewYork:RowmanandLittlefield, 2002); and U.S. Census Bureau, WorldPopulationProfile:1998 (Washington, D.C.: GovernmentPrintingOffice,1999). 2.Mostofthedataonnationalincomesisfromthelastannuallyupdated profile: World Development Indicators, 2005, database,World Bank,April 18, 2006, GNI per capita 2004,Atlas Method and PPP, on the Internet at siteresources .worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GNIPC.PDF,downloadedonJune 2,2006.Thisdataisgenerallyfollowed,onaPPPbasis,byInfoplease,Economic StatisticsbyCountry,2004(availableontheInternetatwww.infoplease.com/ipa/ A0874911.html,downloadedonJune2,2006).Theparticularplightofcentral AfricancountriesisaddressedinGeorgeBenneh,WilliamB.Morgan,andJuha L.Uitto,eds.,SustainingtheFuture:Economic,Social,andEnvironmentalChangeinSub-Saharan Africa(Tokyo:UnitedNationsUniv.Press,1996). 3.Forthebestintroductiontothesystemofnationalaccountsdevelopedbythe UnitedNationsStatisticsDivision,gotoitswebsite:http//www.unstats.un.org. 4.TheprivatelydevelopedDaly-CobbIndexofSustainableEconomicWelfareshowsasteadydeclineinindividualwelfareintheUnitedStatesafter1976: L.R.Brown,“StateoftheWorld1991,”inClassicsinEnvironmentalStudies:AnOverview ofClassicTextsinEnvironmentalStudies, ed. Nico Nelissen, JanVan Der Stratten, and LeonKlinkers(TheHague,Netherlands:InternationalBooks,1997),320–32. 5.InTheWealthofNature:HowMainstreamEconomicsHasFailedtheEnvironment(New York:ColumbiaUniv.Press,2003),RobertL.Nadeauhasrecommendedanew ecologicallyorientedeconomictheorythatwouldsupportanewsystemofnational,andinternational,accounts. 6.Infoplease,EconomicStatisticsbyCountry,2004(availableontheInternetat www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0874911.html,downloadedonJune2,2006). 7.Forthischapter,asmostothers,IhavebeenindebtedtoJ.R.McNeill, SomethingNewUndertheSun:AnEnvironmentalHistoryoftheTwentieth-CenturyWorld(New York:W.W.Norton,2000),whichnotonlyincludesawide-rangingsurveyofthe environmentalchangesthatoccurredinacentury,butalsoanextensiveanduseful bibliographyofmostmajorenvironmentalpublicationsduringthatcentury.
3.Soil,Vegetation,andFood 1.Theclassificationofsoilsisahighlytechnicalenterprise.ThisiswellillustratedinU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,NaturalResourcesConservationSer-
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vice,SoilTaxonomy:ABasicSystemofSoilClassificationforMakingandInterpretingSoilSurveys, 2nded.(Washington,D.C.:GovernmentPrintingOffice,1999). 2.TheshiftinAmericanagricultureafter1950isclearinGilbertC.Fite, AmericanFarmers:TheNewMinority(Bloomington:IndianaUniv.Press,1981). 3.ThestatusofagricultureworldwideisupdatedeveryyearinFoodand AgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations,StatisticalYearbook,2004(Rome: Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2005).This enormousbodyofdataisavailableontheInternetatwww.fao.org/yearbook.Also availableontheInternetisDiet,Nutrition,andthePreventionofChronicDiseases,Reportof aJointWHO/FAOConsultation(Geneva:WorldHealthOrganization,2003),at www.who.int/hpr/NPH/docs/who_fao_expert_report.pdf. 4.TheplightofsomanytropicalsoilsisdemonstratedinMichaelJ.Eden andJohnT.Parry,eds.,LandDegradationintheTropics(London:Pinter,1996). 5. Diet,Nutrition,andthePreventionofChronicDiseases, Report of a JointWHO/ FAO Consultation (Geneva:World Health Organization, 2003), at www.who .int/hpr/NPH/docs/who_fao_expert_report.pdf.
4.WaterandEnergy:WillThereBeEnough? 1.Thefollowingthreebooksofferanexcellentintroductiontotheproblem ofwaterscarcityinthecomingdecades:I.A.ShiklomanovandJohnC.Rodda, WorldWaterResourcesattheBeginningoftheTwenty-FirstCentury(Cambridge,U.K.:CambridgeUniv.Press,2003);MarkA.Rosegrant,XimingCai,andSarahA.Cline, WorldWater and Food to 2025: Dealing with Scarcity (Washington, D.C.: International FoodPolicyResearchInstitute,2002);andAlanRichards,CopingwithWaterScarcity: TheGovernanceChallenge,PolicyPaper#54(Berkeley,Calif.:InstituteonGlobalConflictandCooperation,2002). 2.Richards,CopingwithWaterScarcity. 3.The following three sources offer a range of views about oil reserves, fromthepessimistictothemoreoptimistic:ColinJ.CampbellandJeanH.Laherrere,“TheEndofCheapOil,”ScientificAmerican278(March1998):78–83;InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook:AssessingToday’sSupplytoFuelTomorrow’s Growth,2001Insights(Paris:InternationalEnergyAgency,2001);andU.S.GeologicalSurvey,WorldPetroleumAssessment,2000(Washington,D.C.:GovernmentPrinting Office,2000).Foralistofallrenewableenergysources,andaratheroptimistic assessmentoftheirpossibilities,seeJohnJ.Berger,“RenewableEnergySources asaResponsetoGlobalClimateConcerns,”inClimateChangePolicies:ASurvey,ed. StephenH.Schneider,ArminRosencranz,andJohnO.Niles(Washington,D.C.: IslandPress,2002),3–51. 4.CampbellandLaherrere,“TheEndofCheapOil,”78–83. 5.Estimatesoftheearth’stotalsupplyoffossilfuelsisinChaunceyStarr,
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“SustainingtheHumanEnvironment:TheNextTwoHundredYears,”inTechnologicalTrajectoriesandtheHumanEnvironment,ed.JesseH.AusubelandH.DaleLangford (Washington,D.C.:NationalAcademyPress,1997),193.Amorehard-headed, economicviewofenergyissuesisinLawrenceGregoryHines,TheMarket,Energy, andtheEnvironment(Boston:AllynandBacon,1988).
5.Pollution,Waste,andtheOzoneLayer 1.MarvinS.Soroos,TheEndangeredAtmosphere:PreservingaGlobalCommons(Columbia: Univ. of South Carolina Press, 1997).This book is clear and open to nonscientificreaders.Italsocontainsanexcellentintroductiontotheproblem ofozonethinning. 2.MaryK.TheodoreandLouisTheodore,MajorEnvironmentalIssuesFacingthe 21stCentury(UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.:PrenticeHall,1997),offersashortintroductiontoallareasofpollutionandeffortstocontrolit.AlsoseeSoroos, The EndangeredAtmosphere. 3.NormanJ.VigandMichaelE.Kraft,eds.,EnvironmentalPolicyinthe1990s— Reform or Reaction (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 1997), introduces the political conflictthathasmarkedmostrecentenvironmentalregulation.BruceBarcott, “ChangingAlltheRules,”NewYorkTimesMagazine,April4,2004,38–45,provides adetailedreviewofnewEPArulesthatallowutilitiestoevadeoneofthemost stringentregulationsintheCleanAirAct. 4.AllofthemajorantipollutionactsineffectintheUnitedStatesareavailable on the Internet.The best starting point for the actual acts, or a range of informationaboutthem,istheEPA(www.epa.gov). 5.AndrewE.Dessler,TheChemistryandPhysicsofStratosphericOzone(SanDiego: AcademicPress,2000),offersarecentandclearscientificbackgroundonthe roleofstratosphericozone. 6.ForalmostanythingonewantstoknowabouttheMontrealProtocol, onecandonobetterthantogotothewebsiteoftheOzoneSecretariatofthe UnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgramme(www.unep.org/ozone).
6.TheExtinctionCrisis 1.BruceA.Stein,LynnS.Kutner,andJonathanS.Adams,eds.,PreciousHeritage: TheStatusofBiodiversityintheUnitedStates,fortheNatureConservancy(NewYork: OxfordUniv.Press,2000). 2.InternationaleffortstopreservebiodiversityaredocumentedinInternationalUnionforConservationofNatureandNaturalResources,2006IUCN RedListofThreatenedSpecies,redlist.org,downloadedJune7,2006;UnitedNations EnvironmentalProgramme,GlobalEnvironmentalOutlook3:Past,PresentandFuturePerspec-
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tives(London:EarthscanPublicationsLtd.,2002),whichisalsoavailableonthe Internetatwww.unep.org/GEO/geo3. 3.UnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgramme,GlobalEnvironmentalOutlook3. 4.AllaspectsoftheworkoftheConventiononBiodiversityareonitswebsite(www.biodiv.org).ThisincludestheCartagenaProtocolonBiosafety:FromNegotiationtoImplementation, Convention on Biological Diversity News, Special Edition, 2004. 5.ConventiononBiodiversity,www.biodiv.org. 6.ConventiononBiodiversity,www.biodiv.org;CartagenaProtocolonBiosafety. 7.ThetextoftheConventiononInternationalTradeinEndangeredSpeciesofWildFauna andFloraisavailableontheCITESwebsite(www.cites.org). 8.ConventiononInternationalTradeinEndangeredSpeciesofWildFaunaandFlora,www .cites.org. 9.ThefirstAmericanenvironmentalclassicisGeorgeP.Marsh,TheEarthas ModifiedbyHumanAction(NewYork:Scribners,1874),quoteonpage144. 10.ThehistoryofwildlifepreservationintheUnitedStatesisinMichaelJ. BeanandMelanieJ.Rowland,TheEvolutionofNationalWildlifeLaw(Westport,Conn.: Praeger,1997). 11.The plight of species worldwide is clear in David L. Hawkswirth, ed., GlobalBiodiversityAssessment(Cambridge,U.K.:CambridgeUniv.Press,1995).For the United States, one of the fullest assessments of our diversity is EdwardT. LaRoe,etal.,OurLivingResources:AReporttotheNationontheDistribution,Abundance,and HealthofU.S.Plants,Animals,andEcosystems(Washington,D.C.:DepartmentoftheInterior—NationalBiologicalService,1995).ThiswasreinforcedbyStein,Kutner, andAdams,eds.,PreciousHeritage.ThelegislativesideisEndangeredSpeciesAct,asAmendedthroughDecember,1996(Washington,D.C.:GovernmentPrintingOffice,1997). 12.Stein,Kutner,andAdams,eds.,PreciousHeritage. 13.Ibid. 14.Ibid. 15.Ibid.
7.ClimateChangeinaGlacialEpoch 1.Myverygeneralintroductiontothebasicsofclimatesummarizeswhatis presentinalmostanytextbookonthesubject.Butbecausemyultimategoalisa betterunderstandingofallthecontroversiessurroundingglobalwarming,Iwas particularlyinformedbytwosources:(1)IntergovernmentalPanelonClimate Change,ClimateChange2001:TheScientificBasis(Cambridge,U.K.:CambridgeUniv. Press,2001),Part1,“TheClimateSystem:AnOverview,”andPart2,“Observed ClimateVariabilityandChange”,85–181;and(2)R.C.L.Wilson,S.A.Drury,and J.L.Chapman,TheGreatIceAge:ClimateChangeandLife(London:Routledge,2000).
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2.Ifoundthemostdetailedscientificanalysisoftheroleofthethermohalinecirculationinaseriesofhighlytechnical,model-basedessays:PeterU.Clark, RobertS.Webb,andLloydD.Keigwin,eds.,MechanismsofGlobalClimateChangeat MillennialTimeScales(Washington,D.C.:AmericanGeophysicalUnion,1999).Ina verystimulatingbook,TheWindsofChange:Climate,Weather,andtheDestructionofCivilizations(NewYork:SimonandSchuster,2006),EugeneLindenhascarefullysurveyedrecentresearchonpaleoclimateandonthedevastatingimpactofrapid climatechangeonpastcivilizations. 3.Thehistoryoftheearth’sclimateinthemoredistantpastisstillanarea ofconflictingtheories.Muchisunknown,andmayremainso.Anoverviewof someoftheissuesisinNationalResearchCouncil,GlobalEnvironmentalChange:ResearchPathwaysfortheNextDecade(Washington,D.C.:NationalAcademyPress,1999), chapter6,“PaleoclimateOverview,”237–91.Thisbookisbestatrevealingwhat wedonotknow,andwhatresearchisneededtolowerlevelsofuncertaintyinalmostallclimate-relatedareas.Atpointsitmayseemsuspect,foritechoesatypical pointofviewamongpolicymakersintheUnitedStates,andparticularlyinthe GeorgeW.BushAdministration—waituntilwehavemuchmorecertainknowledgebeforeadoptingnewclimate-relatedpolicies,particularlythosethatmight slowAmericaneconomicgrowthorplacetoomanyburdensonproducersand consumers. David Schwartzman, in Life,Temperature, and the Earth:The Self-Organizing Biosphere(NewYork:ColumbiaUniv.Press,1999),offersaperspectivethatdraws fromGaiatheory.AlsoseeWilson,Drury,andChapman,TheGreatIceAge. 4.IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,ClimateChange2001.
8.GreenhouseGasesandClimateChange 1. Fortunately, Spencer R.Weart has written an excellent history of the development of concerns about global warming, The Discovery of GlobalWarming (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Univ. Press, 2003).An expanded version of this bookisavailableontheInternetatwww.aip.org/history/climate.Themoredistant history of climate change is addressed in Peter U. Clark, Robert S.Webb, andLloydD.Keigwin,eds.,MechanismsofGlobalClimateChangeatMillennialTimeScales (Washington,D.C.:AmericanGeographicalUnion,1999);bytwochaptersin National Research Council, GlobalEnvironmentalChange:ResearchPathwaysfortheNext Decade(Washington,D.C.:NationalAcademyPress,1999);andbyD.J.Beerling andF.I.Woodward,VegetationandtheTerrestrialCarbonCycle:ModellingtheFirst400Million Years(Cambridge,U.K.:CambridgeUniv.Press,2001). 2.AtleasthalfthecontentofthischapterderivesfromtheworkoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).Ithascompletedthreemajor assessmentsoftheclimatechangenowunderway,withthethirdcompletedin 2001. Its fourth assessment will be completed in 2007.The third assessment
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waspublishedinfourlargeandattimesquitetechnicalvolumes:ClimateChange 2001:TheScientificBasis;ClimateChange2001:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerability;Climate Change2001:Mitigation; and ClimateChange2001:SynthesisReport (Cambridge, U.K.: CambridgeUniv.Press,2001). 3.IPCC,ClimateChange2001:TheScientificBasis.TheIPCChassynthesizedthe ongoingscientificresearchonwarming,anditsbibliographyisalmostdefinitive.Almostallmajorbooksonwarmingacceptitsdata,eveniftheydonotagree withtheimpliedpolicyimplicationsofthisdata.Theonlyintroductiontothe scientificbackgroundthatislargelyindependentoftheIPCCassessmentsisL.D. DannyHarvey,GlobalWarming:TheHardScience(NewYork:PrenticeHall,2000),but thecontentisingeneralagreementwiththatoftheIPCC. 4.Weart,TheDiscoveryofGlobalWarming;BeerlingandWoodward,Vegetationand theTerrestrialCarbonCycle. 5.Ibid. 6.IPCC,ClimateChange2001:TheScientificBasis;IPCC,ClimateChange2001:Impacts, AdaptationandVulnerability. 7.Thepolicyimplicationsofwarmingandinternationaleffortstocontrol greenhousegaseshaveattractedanenormousrangeofopinionandscholarship. Ifoundthefollowingbookstobeveryhelpfulintheseareas:DavidG.Victor,The CollapseoftheKyotoProtocolandtheStruggletoSlowGlobalWarming(Princeton:Princeton Univ.Press,2001);JeremyK.Leggett,TheCarbonWar:GlobalWarmingandtheEndofthe OilEra(NewYork:Routledge,2001);StephenH.Schneider,ArminRosencranz, andJohnO.Niles,eds.,ClimateChangePolicies:ASurvey(Washington,D.C.:Island Press,2002);N.H.RavindranathandJayantaA.Sathaye,ClimateChangeinDeveloping Countries(Boston:KluwerAcademicPublishers,2002);andBarryHolden,DemocracyandGlobalWarming(NewYork:Continuum,2002). 8.ThemostrecentassessmentofthepotentialforCO2captureandstorage istheIPCC“SpecialReportonCarbonDioxideCaptureandStorage,Summary forPolicyMakers,”Montreal,IPCCWorkingGroupIII,September25,2005,and availableatwww.ipcc.ch.activity/outlineco2capture.pdf. 9. IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; Ravindranath and Sathaye, Climate ChangeinDevelopingCountries. 10.RavindranathandSathaye,ClimateChangeinDevelopingCountries;Holden,DemocracyandGlobalWarming. 11.Victor,TheCollapseoftheKyotoProtocolandtheStruggletoSlowGlobalWarming. 12.IPCC“SpecialReportonCarbonDioxideCaptureandStorage,Summary forPolicyMakers,”Montreal,IPCCWorkingGroupIII,September25,2005,and availableatwww.ipcc.ch.activity/outlineco2capture.pdf.AsIwrite,anew,bestsellingbookbyAlbertGore,AnInconvenientTruth:ThePlanetaryEmergencyofGlobalWarmingandWhatWeCanDoAboutIt(Emmaus,Pa.:RodalePress,2006),hasstimulated moredebateaboutglobalwarming.
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13.Manybooksdealwithspecifictopicsinvolvingglobalwarming.Ifound thefollowingtobehelpful:KirillYaKondratyev,ClimaticEffectsofAerosolsandClouds (Chichester, U.K.: Springer-Praxis, 1999); Kirill Ya Kondratyev and Ignacio Galindo, VolcanicActivity and Climate (Hampton,Va.:A. Deepak, 1997); andAlan Wellburn, AirPollutionandClimateChange:TheBiologicalImpact, 2nd ed. (NewYork: Wiley,1994).
9.ReformEnvironmentalistsandAmericanEnvironmentalPolicy 1.Thebestintroductiontothefirstmajorenvironmentalmovementinthe UnitedStates,inbehalfofconservationofresources,isSamuelP.Hays,Conservation and the Gospel of Efficiency:The Progressive Conservation Movement, 1890–1920 (Cambridge,Mass.:HarvardUniv.Press,1959). 2. Hays, Conservation and the Gospel of Efficiency.A broad, general textbook on AmericanenvironmentalismisBenjaminKline,FirstAlongtheRiver:ABriefHistoryof theU.S.EnvironmentalMovement,2nded.(SanFrancisco:ArcadaBooks,2000). 3.MuchmoredetailedthantheKlineworkisRileyE.DunlapandAngela G.Mertig,eds.,AmericanEnvironmentalism:TheU.S.EnvironmentalMovement,1970–1990 (Philadelphia:TaylorandFrancis,1992). 4.EveryoneshouldreadRachelCarson,SilentSpring(Boston:HoughtonMifflin,1962),thegreatestclassicofmodernenvironmentalism. 5.Ibid. 6.AsabackdroptotheWildernessAct,oneshouldreadRoderickNash, WildernessandtheAmericanMind,3rded.(NewHaven:YaleUniv.Press,1982).The WildernessActisincludedinDigestofFederalResourceLawsofInteresttotheU.S.Fishand WildlifeServiceatwww.fws.gov/lawsdigest/indx.html. 7.Kline,FirstAlongtheRiver.Twoanthologiescontainselectionsfromawide arrayofenvironmentalists:LisaM.BentonandJohnRennieShort,eds.,EnvironmentalDiscourseandPractice:AReader(Oxford,U.K.:Blackwell,2000),withchapter 9,“The Greening of the United States,” most pertinent for this chapter; and SheldonKamieniecki,GeorgeA.Gonzalez,andRobertO.Vos,eds.,Flashpointsin EnvironmentalPolicymaking:ControversiesinAchievingSustainability(Albany:StateUniv.of NewYorkPress,1997). 8.ThebestsurveyoftheaccomplishmentsoftheNationalEnvironmental PolicyActisRayClarkandLarryCanter,EnvironmentalPolicyandNEPA:Past,Present,and Future(BocaRaton,Fla.:St.LuciePress,1997). 9.DigestofFederalResourceLawsofInteresttotheU.S.FishandWildlifeService,www.fws .gov/lawsdigest/indx.html. 10.TheliteratureontheEPAisenormous,includinghundredsofitsown publications.Thebestwaytogainsomeunderstandingofitsroleisbyturning toitswebsite(www.epa.gov).
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10.PassionateEnvironmentalism 1.The original introduction of Gaia theory is in James E. Lovelock, Gaia: ANewLookatLifeonEarth(London:OxfordUniv.Press,1979);hefollowedthis withTheAgesofGaia:ABiographyofOurLivingEarth(NewYork:W.W.Norton,1988); HealingGaia:PracticalMedicineforthePlanet(NewYork:HarmonyBooks,1991);and Gaia’sBody:TowardaPhysiologyofEarth(NewYork:Springer-Verlag,1998).Ifindthe mostpenetratinganalysisofGaiatheoryinGeorgeRonaldWilliams,TheMolecular BiologyofGaia(NewYork:ColumbiaUniv.Press,1996). 2.Fordeepecology,onemustbeginwithArneNaess,“TheDeepEcology Movement:SomePhilosophicalAspects,”PhilosophyInquiry8(1986):10–31;and alsoArneNaess,Ecology,CommunityandLifestyle:OutlineofanEcosophy,translatedand editedbyDavidRothenberg(Cambridge,U.K.:CambridgeUniv.Press,1989). Also revealing is George Sessions, ed., Deep Ecology for the 21st Century (Boston: Shambhala,1995). 3.Naess,Ecology,CommunityandLifestyle,29. 4.Lovelock,TheAgesofGaia. 5.Thecomplicationsandinnercontroversiesconcerningdeepecologyare inEricKatz,AndrewLight,andDavidRothenberg,BeneaththeSurface:CriticalEssays ofDeepEcology(Cambridge,Mass.:MITPress,2000). 6.Anexcellent,andquitemoderate,introductiontoecofeminismisCarolynMerchant,RadicalEcology:TheSearchforaLivableWorld(London:Routledge,1992). AsharperviewisinArielSalleh,“DeeperThanDeepEcology:TheEcofeminist Connection,”EnvironmentalEthics6(1984):339–45.Excellentessaysondeepecology and ecofeminism are in Michael E. Zimmerman et al., eds., Environmental Philosophy:FromAnimalRightstoRadicalEcology(EnglewoodCliffs,N.J.:PrenticeHall, 1993). 7.The most readable introduction to bioregionalism is Kirkpatrick Sale, Dwellers in the Land (San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1985).Two anthologies contain excellentselectionsfrombioregionalists,includingZimmermanetal.,eds.,EnvironmentalPhilosophy,andSheldonKamieniecki,GeorgeA.Gonzalez,andRobert O.Vos,FlashpointsinEnvironmentalPolicymaking:ControversiesinAchievingSustainability(Albany:StateUniv.ofNewYorkPress,1997). 8.ThepublicityforbothGreenpeaceandEarthFirst!isimmense.Agood place to gain an understanding of Greenpeace is its website, http://www. greenpeace.org. 9.TheoriginsofEarthFirst!,inasense,areinanovelbyEdwardAbbey,The MonkeyWrenchGang(Philadelphia:Lippincott,1975).
Index Abbey, Edward, 276, 297 acid rain, 15, 28, 33, 37, 38, 58, 105, 108, 112, 114, 121, 161 Adams, Jonathan S., 292 adiabatic lapse rate, 167 aerosols: as forcing agents for warming and cooling, 175, 197, 201; as nucleus for raindrops, 105; as pollutants, 105; from volcanoes, 126, 173; in inhalants, 12 Afghanistan, 29 Africa, viii, 9, 24, 26, 28, 29, 36, 43, 47, 48, 52, 57–61, 63–65, 68, 73, 74, 137, 141, 170, 220, 232, 258, 279, 282, 283, 286, 290 Agent Orange, 233, 236 agriculture: as a threat to biodiversity, 158; contribution to growth in population and consumption, viii, 24, 272; environmental costs of, 56, 108, 258, 259, 268; green revolution in, 54; hazards to soils in modern farming, 45; in Egypt, 76–78; in prehistorical ages, 103, 136; pesticide and chemical use in, 235, 285; policies in the United States, 50–52; problems in poor countries, 24, 34, 36, 60, 64; productivity in America, 35, 159 AIDS epidemic, 24 Alaska, 58, 148, 151, 155, 158, 166, 182, 241 alien species, 131–35, 158 Amazon basin, 46 Amchitka Island, 272 American bison, 134 American Ornithologists’ Union, 148 ammonia, 14, 106 ammonium, 106 anarchism, 239, 259, 268, 269 Antarctica, 125, 126, 128, 173, 176, 208 anthropocentrism, 260–63
aquifers, 38, 67, 71–73, 107 Arctic Ocean, 178, 182, 208 Argentina, 75 Arial Sea, 75 Ariel, Salleh, 297 Arrhenius, Svante, 190 arsenic, 234 Asia, 26, 28, 58–60, 62, 65, 74, 92, 137, 168, 170, 173, 182, 220, 232, 257, 258, 279 Aswan Dam, 76–77 atmosphere: contributions to life, 13, 280; effect on, by greenhouse gases and aerosols, 92, 185, 191–208, 217, 222; impact of life on, 182, 255; ozone depleting chemicals in, 121–30; threats to, from air pollution, 38, 105–6; threats from global warming, 20, 136 Audubon Society, 149, 229, 230, 232 Australia, 28, 47, 50, 144, 273 Ausubel, Jesse H., 292 automobiles: energy needs of, 56, 96, 283; increased use in China and India, 83, 96; new fuels for, 85, 91; patterns of use in the United States, 35, 93, 232, 286; polluting role, 57, 92, 113, 271 bacteria, 4, 15, 19–21, 46, 102, 108, 109, 132, 133, 136, 257, 258 bald eagle, 134, 151, 158, 238, 239 Bangladesh, 29, 63, 187, 279 Barcott, Bruce, 292 Bean, Michael J., 293 Beerling, D. J., 294 Benneh, George, 290 Benton, Lisa M., 296 Berger, John J., 291 Bible, 9 biodiesel fuel, 85, 95 biodiversity: American efforts to preserve, 146, 148–51, 227, 240, 276; concerns
299
300 about loss of, 36, 63, 232; effects of growth on, 98; international efforts to preserve, 137–46; prospects for the future, 153–62; protection by the Endangered Species Act, 151–53; the present extinction crisis, 131 biomes, 155, 269–70 bioregionalism, 229, 258, 267, 268, 269– 72, 276, 297 Bio-Safety Clearing House, 144 Boone and Crockett Club, 149 Brazil, 9, 29, 75, 76, 85, 96, 144 bromine gases, 124, 125, 129, 192 Brower, David, 239 Brown, L. R, 290 Bryson, Reid, 190 Bureau of Biological Survey, 150 Bureau of Fisheries, 149, 150 Bureau of Land Management, 240 Bush (George W.) Administration energy policy, 96; policies on climate change, 207, 211, 213–14, 219, 221, 294; policies on endangered species, 153; policies on ozone-depleting chemicals, 28, 96, 115, 116, 121, 128, 153, 207, 209, 211, 213, 214, 219, 221, 249; pollution policies, 96, 115–16, 121, 249 Bush, George W., 95, 115. See also Bush (George W.) Administration Cai, Ximing, 291 California, 58, 79, 84, 113, 115, 148, 155, 159, 170, 171, 230, 231, 237, 269, 276, 277 California condor, 155 Campbell, Colin J., 88, 291 Canada, 28, 33, 47, 58, 89, 92, 117, 144, 150, 151, 155, 167, 170–72, 184, 187, 272, 273, 275 Canter, Larry, 296 carbon cycles, 20, 198 carbon dioxide (CO2): as absorbed by oceans, 201; as a greenhouse gas, 14, 17, 38, 90, 175, 191–201, 206, 257, 258; as a pollutant, 85, 92; capture and storage of, 215; efforts to reduce emissions of, 216–21; in the early earth’s atmosphere, 14; role in photosynthesis, 201; role in vegetative growth, 199, 201, 223, 258 carbon monoxide (CO), 102, 103, 104,
Index 106–7, 112, 113, 267, 269, 292 Carey, Henry C., 229, 269 Carolina parakeet, 134, 156 Carson, Rachel, 233–38, 239, 248, 296 Carter, Jimmy, 119, 245 Center for Environmental Education, 239 Central America, 58 Chapman, J. L., 293 chemical composition of the earth, 6 chestnut blight, 133 Chile, 46 China: air and water pollution in, 221; as a source of ozone-depleting gases, 127; climate of, 47, 58; energy use by, 82–83, 86, 87, 91, 92, 104, 216, 221; food production in, 61, 63, 71, 104; greenhouse emissions by, 83, 211–12, 218, 220, 221; income data on, 29, 63, 283; population policies in, 26, 279, 283; recent growth patterns in, 27, 34, 97, 104, 220, 279, 286 chlorinated hydrocarbons, 233 chlorine, 68, 122, 124, 125, 130, 192 chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 122, 124–28, 129, 130, 195, 203, 255, 258 chlorophyll, 18–20, 254 Christianity, 9, 261, 262, 265, 266 Citizens’ Advisory Committee on Environmental Quality, 246 Civil Rights movement, 276 Clark, Peter U., 294 Clean Air Acts, 112–15, 117, 292 Clean Development Mechanism, 213, 214 Clean Water Acts, 116–17, 241 climate: basics of, 165–71; effects of changes in, on extinctions, 133, 153, 154; glacial cycles within, 172–85, 281; impact of greenhouse gases on, 189–208; international agencies involved with, 208–14, 216; present warming of, 132, 163, 185–88, 223, 281–82; role of life in shaping, 21, 58, 60, 132, 136, 147, 252, 255; threats of rapid change in, viii, 2, 7, 12, 36, 123, 130, 163, 221, 281–82; United States policies on, 214–16, 218–20; zones of, 15, 46–47, 58, 70, 71, 155, 165, 166, 186 Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP), 219 Climate Change Research Initiative, 209 Cline, Sarah A., 291
Index Clinton Administration, 113, 115, 120, 211, 247 Clinton, William (Bill), 155 clouds, 13, 17, 125, 167, 193, 196, 197, 200, 201, 206, 255, 296 Club of Rome, 140, 190 Colorado, 72 Colorado basin, 74, 78 Colorado River, 67, 74 Columbia, 74 comets, 3, 7, 16, 66 Commissioner of Fisheries, 148 Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980, 119, 248 Comprehensive Soil Classification System (CSCS), 44 Condie, Kent C., 289 Conference on the Human Environment (1972), 140, 144 Connecticut, 113 conservation, 48, 50, 51, 78, 93, 101, 118, 137, 140, 144, 147–50, 152, 154, 158, 160, 161, 229–31, 239, 242, 248, 290, 292, 296 Conservation Congress (national), 229 Conservation Reserve, 51, 161 Convention for the Protection of Migratory Birds, 150 Convention on Biodiversity (CBD), 141–44, 210, 293 Convention on Climate Change, 214 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), 141, 144–46, 151, 293 Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, 121 coral, 132, 146, 208 Coriolis force, 166, 169, 171 Corps of Engineers, 117 cost-effective criteria, 85, 96, 112, 218 cotton, 47, 52, 54, 232 Council of Economic Advisors, 243, 246 Council on Environmental Quality, 243, 246, 247 Czech Republic, 29 dams, 70, 72, 74–78, 80, 85, 91, 158, 175, 245, 276 Darwin, Charles, 4, 18, 252–56
301 DDT, 130, 233, 234, 237–38 d’Eaubonne, Francoise, 264 deep ecology, 259–64, 265, 267, 297 deforestation, 36, 48, 57, 62, 64, 146, 259, 283, 286 Delaware, 113 Democratic Republic of the Congo, 29 demographic transition, 26 Denmark, 85 Department of Agriculture, 44, 51, 148, 150, 160, 290 desalinization, 67 Dessler, Andrew E., 292 dimethylsulfide, 255 Dingell, John, 242 dinosaurs, 17 dioxins, 130, 236 Division of Economic Ornithology and Mammalogy, 148 DNA, 4, 5, 16, 253, 256 Drury, S. A., 293 Dunlap, Riley E., 296 DuPont Corporation, 122, 252 dust bowl, 37 E85 (ethanol-gasoline mixture), 85 Earth Day, 141, 238, 239 Earth First!, 259, 272, 276–77, 297 Earth Summit of 1992. See United Nations Conference on Environment and Development earth, inclination relative to sun, 7, 179 earth, orbit of, 7, 178–79 earth, origins of, 3 ecology. See deep ecology; social ecology ecofeminism, 259, 264–67, 297 ecotage, 251, 277 Eden, Michael J., 291 Egypt, 70, 76–78, 80, 236 electromagnetic waves, 6 El Niño (ENSO), 171, 182, 184, 186, 187 endangered species, 32, 37, 38, 133, 137, 141, 142, 144, 145, 147, 150–54, 158–60, 244, 245, 293. See also biodiversity Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA), 141, 142, 147, 148, 150–54, 159, 160, 244 energy: as created in photosynthesis, 20; from controlled burning, 35, 55, 56, 79; from nuclear fission, 84, 97; from
302 nuclear fusion, 26, 84, 280; from the sun, 5, 7, 10, 17, 18, 20, 85, 166, 174, 179, 181, 194, 196, 223; growing demands for, viii, 104, 216, 218–21, 283; legislation in the United States, 116, 210, 215; new sources of, 64, 81, 84, 91, 96, 216, 283; patterns of use in the United States, 38, 92, 96, 232; scarcities of, ix, 36, 41, 79, 82–92, 101, 232; use in automobiles, 95 Environmental Action, 239, 272 Environmental Defense Fund, 239 environmental impact statements, 117, 141, 244–46 Environmental Policy Center, 239 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 92, 107, 112–20, 126, 218, 242, 247– 49, 270, 292, 296 Ecuador, 135 Erickson, Jon, 289 ethanol, 64, 85, 86, 91, 95–97, 114 Ethiopia, 29 Euphrates River, 74 European Union, 144, 203, 213 extinction crisis, 99, 131, 132, 140, 155. See also biodiversity Federal Pollution Control Administration, 242 Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972, 116 feminism, 264–67 fertilizers, 15, 21, 24, 45–47, 51, 52, 54, 57, 60, 61, 86, 105, 106, 108, 109, 202, 235, 282, 285 Fish and Wildlife Service, 145, 148, 151–57, 159, 160, 230, 233 fisheries, 148–51 Fite, Gilbert C., 291 Florida panther, 135, 151, 156 food aid, 53, 143, 282 food shortages, 41, 52, 53, 57, 70, 73, 79 Ford Motor Company, 85 Foreman, Dave, 276, 277 forests: as sinks for CO2, 222–23; conifer, 46, 58; deciduous, 58, 259; deforestation, 27, 36, 37, 103, 147, 153, 229, 258, 268, 283; effects on climate, 58, 136, 222; esthetic value of, 33; fire management within, 158; impact of global warming on, 187, 235; in humid
Index tropical areas, 46, 58, 63, 155, 210, 253; insect damages to, 158; reserves of, 187; vulnerability to acid rain, 33 fossil fuels: as a nonrenewable source of energy, 27, 35, 64, 82, 84–85, 210, 286; as an object of conservation, 229, 285; as a source of pollution, 104, 106, 114; consumption of, in the last century, viii, 15, 24, 86, 92, 279, 282–83; consumption patterns in the United States, 104, 106, 114; impact on climate, 165, 186, 198–99, 201, 212, 216, 218, 221; looming scarcities in, ix, 21, 26, 28, 39, 41, 56, 87–91, 189, 212, 216, 259, 280. See also energy Framework Convention on Climate Change, 210 France, 93, 121, 247, 264, 273, 274 Francis of Assisi, Saint, 266 free-market economy, 284 Freon, 122 Friedman, Herbert, 289 Friends of the Earth, 239 Frigidaire Division of General Motors, 122 fuel cells, 81, 84, 96 Full Employment Act of 1946, 243 fusion energy, 5, 6, 26, 84, 91, 95, 97, 280 Gaia hypothesis, 4, 147, 251–59, 289, 294, 297 Galapagos Islands, 135, 171 galaxies, 3 Galindo, Ignacio, 296 Ganges River, 74 General Circulation Model, 185 General Motors, 85, 122 genetic engineering, 62 geothermal energy, 81, 84 Gilligan, Jonathan M., xi glacial cycles, 163, 172, 173, 178, 180, 182 glaciers, 67, 172, 174–77, 179–81, 184, 193, 208, 258, 281 Glen Canyon Dam, 276 Global Change Research Program, 209 global conveyor belt, 176 Global Environmental Facility, 127 Global Environmental Outlook (report by UN Environmental Programme), 141 Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 191 Golding, William, 252
Index Gonzalez, George A., 296, 297 Gore, Albert, Jr., 211, 222 Grand Coulee Dam, 75 great auk, 156 Great Depression, 50 Great Smoky Mountains National Park, 156 Great Society, 241 Greece, 80, 104 greenhouse gases: contribution of industrialized countries to, 32, 218, 283; definition of, 191–92; efforts to reduce, 96, 189, 202, 208–23; in the earth’s early history, 14; sinks for, 58, 173, 198–200, 216, 222–23; variable types, 15, 192, 194; warming effects of, 17, 122, 130, 163, 185, 191–206, 223; well-mixed types, 21, 57, 129, 191–201 Greenland, 174–76, 181, 184, 190, 208 Green political parties, 275, 277 Greenpeace, 239, 272–75, 297 green revolution, 24, 36, 50, 54, 60, 62, 232 Gulf Stream, 167, 171, 173 habitat loss, 131, 133, 148, 158 Haiti, 29 halocarbons, 129, 191–92, 195, 202–3, 283 halogens, 124, 192 halons, 127 Hansen, James, 191 Harrison, Benjamin, 229 Harvey, L. D. Danny, 295 Hawaii, 135, 154–56, 159, 166, 190 Hawkswirth, David L., 293 Hays, Samuel P., 296 Heinz, Knoepfel, 289 herbicides, 54, 108, 109, 232, 233–36 Hetch Hetchy Dam and Reservoir, 230 Hines, Lawrence Gregory, 292 HO (hydroxyl radical), 195 hogs, 52, 55, 56, 74, 103, 109, 110 Holden, Barry, 295 Holocaust, vii Honda automobile company, 96 Hong Kong, 28 Hoover Dam, 75 hot spots for endangered species, 159 Humboldt current, 167, 171 Hungary, 29
303 hunger, 53, 54, 62, 64, 66, 210, 232, 282 hunting and gathering societies, 268 hunting as a cause of extinction, 137 hybrid automobiles, 85, 91, 96, 97 hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), 124, 127 hydroelectric power, 67, 72, 74–76, 80, 90, 91 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 129, 202–3 hydrogen energy, 81 hydrogen sulfide, 14, 106 hydrological cycle, 67, 193 income statistics for the countries of the world, 26–31 India: as a source of ozone-depleting gases, 127; energy use in, 59, 82, 83, 86, 97, 104; food production in, 52, 60, 63, 71, 236, 282; greenhouse emissions by, 212, 220, 221; income data on, 29, 35, 63; population patterns in, 57, 60, 63, 279; recent patterns of growth, 34 Indonesia, 29, 63, 279 Indus River, 67, 72, 74, 75 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), xii, 92, 186, 191, 193–95, 203–10, 212, 217, 223, 294, 295, 212, 220, 221, 236, 271, 279, 282, 286, 293, 294 International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling, 137 International Energy Agency, 88 International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), xii, 137–40, 292 International Whaling Commission, 274 ionosphere, 11–14 Iowa, 47, 52 Iran, 89 Iraq, 89, 286 Ireland, 54 irrigation, 34, 41, 44, 45, 55, 60, 61, 66, 67, 69–79, 117, 282 Islamic countries, 63, 89, 282, 286 Itaipu Dam, 76 Izaak Walton League, 149 Japan, 28, 35, 50, 58, 96, 111, 140, 151, 215, 232, 240, 274 Jean and Alexander Heard Library, xi
304 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 252 jet stream, 169, 170 Johnson, Lyndon, 240 Jordan, 140 Judeo-Christian heritage, 265 Jupiter, 7 Kamieniecki, Sheldon, 296, 297 Katz, Eric, 297 Kazakhstan, 75 Keigwin, Lloyd D., 294 Kenya, 29 Kline, Benjamin, 296 Klinkers, Leon, 290 Kondratyev, Kirill Ya, 296 Kraft, Michael E., 292 Kutner, Lynn S., 292 Kuwait, 89, 286 Kyoto Protocol, 96, 202, 211–14, 219–21, 295 Labrador current, 167, 171 Labrador duck, 156 Laherrere, Jean H., 291 landfills, 109, 110, 118, 201, 202 Langford, H. Dale, 292 LaRoe, Edward T., 293 Last Glacial Maximum (map), 182 Latin America, 28, 57, 61–63, 65, 220, 232, 286 Laurentian plateau, 172 lead as a pollutant, 105, 107, 113, 114, 248 League of Conservation Voters, 239 Leggett, Jeremy K., 295 legumes, 15, 19, 21, 46, 49, 55 Leopold, Aldo, 150, 231 Lieberman, Joseph, 215 life on other planets, 3 life, definition of, 4 life, origins of, 4 Light, Andrew, 297 Linden, Eugene, 294 living modified organisms (LMOs), 142, 143 Love Canal, 119, 120 Lovelock, James, 4, 147, 251–58, 289, 297 magnetic fields, 6, 10–13, 289; reversal of poles, 11, 129 malnutrition, 43, 54 Malthusian theory, 53, 258 manure, 37, 44–46, 56, 57, 86, 106, 109, 110, 202, 269, 277
Index Margulis, Lynn, 252 Mars, 3, 4, 6, 14, 192, 252, 254, 256 Massachusetts, 113 McCain, John, 215 McNeill, J. R., 290 McTaggart, David, 273 medical advances, vii, 232, 280, 281 medicine, 251, 252, 280, 297 Merchant, Carolyn, 297 mercury as a pollutant, 105, 166 Mertig, Angela G., 296 Mesopotamia, 70 mesosphere, 14 meteorites, 16 meteors, 6, 66 methane, 14, 57, 66, 90, 106, 107, 110, 122, 175, 192, 193, 195, 198, 199, 201–3, 206, 221, 258 methyl bromide, 125, 127, 128 Mexico, 29 Middle East, 62, 63, 286 Migratory Bird Conservation Act, 150 Migratory Bird Treaty Act, 150 Milankovich, Milutin, 179, 180 Milankovich pacemaker, 179, 180 Milky Way galaxy, 3 Mississippian culture, 56 Mississippi River, 75, 150 Mississippi Valley, 168 Missouri River, 74 Mittertand, François, 274 Molina, Mario, 122 monkeywrenching, 277 Montana, 148 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, 127–29, 203, 292 moon, 8 Morgan, William B., 290 Morurua Island, 274, 275 Muir, John, 230, 240 Multilateral Fund, 127 Nadeau, Robert L., 290 Naess, Arne, 259–64, 270, 297 Nash, Roderick, 296 Nasser, Gamel Abdel, 77 national accounting, 33 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 252 National Audubon Society, 229, 230
Index National Environmental Policy Act of 1970, 117, 141, 242, 243–47, 248, 249, 296 National Forest Service, 148, 229, 277 National Marine Fisheries Service, 151 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 151 National Parks Conservation Association, 231 National Research Council, 214, 294 National Wetlands Conservation Act, 160 National Wildlife Association, 231 National Wildlife Refuge Administration Act, 150 Native Americans, 55, 266 Natural Resources Defense Fund, 239 Nature Conservancy, 154, 156–60, 239, 270, 293 Nelissen, Nico, 290 Nelson, Gaylord, 239, 242 neopagan religions, 265 new age religions, 251 Newbold, K. Bruce, 290 New Jersey, 113 New Left, 276 new source review under the Clean Air Act, 115, 116 New Zealand, 47, 50, 202, 273, 274 Niger River, 72, 74 Nigeria, 29, 36 Nile River, 67, 74–78 Niles, John O., 291, 295 nitrates, 15, 19, 21, 46, 56, 57, 200, 202, 203 nitrogen, 6, 14, 15, 19, 21, 46, 104–8, 113, 115, 123–25, 129, 200, 202, 203, 282 nitrogen-fixing bacteria, 15, 21, 46 nitrous oxide, 194, 195, 199, 202, 203, 206 nitrous oxides, 38, 113, 114, 121 Nixon, Richard, 242, 246 noise pollution, 106, 112 non-point pollution, 116, 117 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 184–85 northern spotted owl, 154 nuclear energy, 67, 84, 91, 95, 259 nuclear fallout, 37 Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1968, 242 Ocean Conservancy, 239 ocean currents, 18, 165, 167, 171, 173, 185, 186, 282
305 oceans: and plate tectonics, 8–10; as a dump for human waste, 37, 39, 104–5, 106, 108, 116, 132; as the source of most fresh water and precipitation, 67; as treated in Gaia theory, 257–58; as the location of early life, 16; effects of recent warming on, 190, 207, 224; fish populations in, 36 odor pollution, 106, 110 Office of Management and Budget, 247 Ogallala aquifer, 71 oil: alternatives to, 85–86; as a source of pollution, 114, 117, 118, 201, 239, 248, 275; consumption in the United States, 83, 92, 94; Near Eastern reserves of, 70, 87, 286; patterns of use, ix, 35, 38, 83, 87, 97; world supplies and looming scarcities, 36, 213. See also energy organic farming, 155, 235 organic foods, 285 organophosphates, 233 ozone: as an air pollutant, 102, 104, 105, 112–14, 123; as a greenhouse gas, 192, 193, 194–95, 197, 202, 205, 206, 258; chemical makeup of, 14, 122–23, 124; gases that deplete it, 33, 39, 51, 105, 121–22, 124–30, 191, 192, 195, 203, 232, 233, 255, 258; policies to restore its prior levels in the stratosphere, 33, 112, 126–30, 189; screening role in the stratosphere, 12, 13, 14, 16, 19, 102, 123–24, 194, 195 Ozone Secretariat, 128 Pakistan, 29, 63, 279 paleomagnetism, 9 Panama isthmus, 171, 173 Pangaea, 9 Paraguay, 75 Paraná River, 75 Parry, John T., 291 passenger pigeon, 37, 134, 156 PCBs (polychlorinated bipheyls), 130 Pelican Island, 149 Pennsylvania, 54 perfluorocarbons, 202 pesticides, 52, 57, 58, 78, 86, 107, 108, 117–19, 233–35, 238, 285 petroleum. See oil phosphates, 56, 57, 108
Index
306 phosphorus, 21 photosynthesis, 4, 16, 19–21, 66, 90, 102, 103, 136, 197–201, 254, 257 Pinchot, Gifford, 230 plate tectonics, 8, 9, 172 Pleistocene, 172 plug-in hybrids, 97 polar front jet, 169 pollution: as a cause of extinctions, 99; definition of, 101–2; from automobiles, 83, 86, 113–14; from loud noise, 106; from nuclear plants, 84; from odors, 106; from ozone-depleting gases, 121–30; government policies related to, 31, 57, 111, 112–16, 224; in the air, viii, 2, 38, 51, 57, 62, 90, 96, 99, 103, 104–8, 111, 112–15, 126, 195–96, 203, 204, 218, 220, 221, 232, 239, 247, 268, 271, 275; in oceans, ix, 28, 33, 39, 132, 136–37, 111–16, 199–200; in soils and on land, viii, 2, 37, 99, 105, 108–16, 117–20; in water, viii, 32, 51, 57, 62, 67, 69, 78, 99, 103, 105, 108, 111, 112, 116–17, 133, 158, 220, 221, 232, 239, 247, 268, 271, 275 population: concentration in south and east Asia, 59, 60, 63, 65, 104, 221, 232, 279, 282; estimates for growth in the twenty-first century, viii–x, 23, 24, 52, 53, 65, 72, 98, 217, 235, 280, 283; growth in Africa, 57, 63–65, 282, 283, 286; growth in cities, 68; growth in Egypt, 63, 77; growth in Latin America, 62, 65, 232, 286; growth in the twentieth century, viii, ix, 23, 41, 50, 99, 232, 279; growth in the United States, 37, 38, 48, 56, 59, 60, 65, 104, 218; historic growth trends in, 23, 24, 55, 103, 104; imbalances between rich and poor countries, 27, 279; trends in affluent countries, ix, x, 2, 23, 2i7, 62, 65, 104, 218; trends in underdeveloped countries, 24, 26, 37, 48, 56, 59, 60, 65, 104, 218 Po River, 74 poultry, 55, 56 Precious Heritage (Nature Conservancy), 154, 156, 293 purchasing power parity (PPP), 29, 30, 32, 35, 283, 290 pressure gradients, 168, 184
prokaryotes, 4–5 Protocol on Biosafety, 142–44, 293 public transport, 285 rain forests, 58, 222, 269 Ravindranath, N. H., 295 recycling, 20, 21, 101, 110, 111, 118, 129, 231, 248, 256, 258, 269, 272 red-cockaded woodpecker, 155 regionalism, 269 religion, 18, 251, 256, 261, 264, 265 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) of 1976, 118–19 rice (crop), 47, 60, 62, 70, 74, 142, 202, 236 Richards, Alan, 291 Rodda, John C., 291 Roman Empire, 80 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 150 Roosevelt, Theodore, 149, 229 Rosegrant, Mark A., 291 Rosencranz, Armin, 291, 295 Rothenberg, David, 297 Rowland, Melanie J., 293 Rowland, Sherwood, 122 ruminants, 201 Russia, 29, 47, 58, 63, 187, 212, 214, 274 Sahel, 48, 52, 59, 60 Sale, Kirkpatrick, 270, 297 salinization, 45, 73, 76, 78 Sathaye, Jayanta A., 295 Saudi Arabia, 70, 89 Scandinavia, 47, 171, 175, 184 Schneider, Stephen H., 291, 295 Schwartzman, David, 289, 294 Scotese, C. R., xii Sea Shepherd Society, 275 Semitic religions, 266 Sessions, George, 260, 297 Shah, Anup, 290 Shepard, Paul, 268 Shiklomanov, I. A., 291 Short, John Rennie, 296 Sierra Club, 230–32, 239, 240, 272, 297 Sierra Leone, 28 Silent Spring (Rachael Carson), 233–38 Slovenia, 28 Smithsonian Institution, 146 snail darter, 154 social ecology, 267–72
Index Soil Conservation Service, 51 soils: as a repository for carbon, 198–200; as a support for forests, 57; conservation and rehabilitation of, 41, 45, 48, 50, 51, 55; definition and classification of, 43–47; effects of irrigation on, 70, 73, 77; formation of, 4, 281; nutrients in, 32, 36, 43, 45, 46, 49, 55–57, 103, 227, 258, 282, 283; organisms in, 41, 45, 48, 50, 51, 55; pollution of, ix, 101, 102, 104, 105, 108, 111, 204, 268; policies in the United States, 49, 50, 56, 64; regional scarcities of, ix, 62, 63; threats to, 32, 36, 43, 46, 48, 49, 55–57, 103, 227, 258, 282, 283 solar flares, 13 solar power, 81, 95 solar wind, 12, 13, 129 solid waste, 103, 104, 108, 110, 117–21, 247, 248 Soroos, Marvin S., 292 South Africa, 29, 47, 63 South Asia, 59, 60, 279 South Dakota, 71 Southeast Asia, 58, 182, 202, 220, 257 Southwest Asia, 62 Soviet Union, 63 Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 205 species extinctions, 131, 186, 286. See also biodiversity Starr, Chauncey, 291 steam engines, 80, 81 steam plants, 45, 75, 81, 84, 92, 114, 215, 216 steam power, 80, 81, 115, 282–83 Stein, Bruce A., 293 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment, 140 stratosphere, 12–14, 66, 102, 122–26, 128, 129, 173, 192, 194, 195, 223 Stratten, Jan Van Der, 290 sub-Sahara Africa, 36, 57, 61, 63, 220, 279, 290 Sudan, 29, 77, 78 sulfates, 13, 15, 194, 196, 200, 203–5, 223 sulfur dioxide, 107, 203 sulfur hexafluoride, 202, 203 sun-earth relationships, 5 sun spots, 13 Super Fund. See Comprehensive Environmental Response,
307 Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 sustainable development, xii, 27–34, 141, 142, 219, 221 Sustainable National Income index, 33 Switzerland, 29, 140 Tennessee River, 74 Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), 51, 74, 154 Test Ban Treaty of 1963, 121 Texas, xiii, 71, 158 Theodore, Louis, 292 Theodore, Mary K., 292 thermohaline circulation, 171, 173, 176– 78, 181, 186, 208, 294 Thoreau, David, 229 Three Gorges Dam, 76, 83 Tibetan plateau, 173 Tigris River, 74 tobacco, 47, 52, 54 toxic wastes, 33, 109, 110, 120 Toyota Automobile Company, 96 transpiration, 58, 67, 167, 193, 258 troposphere, 14, 17, 122–24, 129, 192, 194, 195, 206, 207 Trudeau, Pierre Elliott, 273 Tuolumne River, 231 Turkey, 29 Uitto, Juha L., 290 ultraviolet radiation, 121, 122, 124–26, 128, 129, 194 United Arab Emirates, 89 United Kingdom (Britain), 35, 77, 80, 81, 88, 89, 150, 166, 184, 212, 215 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit), 33, 140, 141, 144, 210 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, xii United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), 131, 140, 141, 292 United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, 53 United Nations Population Division, viii, 24, 290 U.N. World Water Assessment Programme, 68 U.S. Climate Research Program, 209 United States Census Bureau, 26, 290
Index
308 United States Climate Change Action Plan, 209, 219 United States Department of Agriculture, 44, 290 United States Geological Survey, 88, 90, 291 Upper Mississippi River Wildlife and Fish Refuge Act, 150 utopianism, 267 Van Allen radiation belt, 12 Vancouver, Canada, 272, 273 Vanderbilt University, xii Venezuela, 63 Venus, 14, 192, 252, 254 Victor, David G., 295 Vienna Convention on Ozone, 126 Vietnam, 233, 236, 239 Vig, Norman J., 292 volcanoes, 4, 10, 102, 126, 133, 198, 223 Volga River, 74 Volk, Tyler, 289 Vos, Robert O., 296, 297 vulcanism, 8, 10, 16, 21, 198, 282 water: as a cause of soil erosion, 45, 55; as a component of soils, 44; as a necessity for life, 7, 16; as a source of energy, 72, 74, 79, 80, 85, 241; as warmed by the sun, 34, 41, 45, 55, 60, 61, 67, 70, 79, 117, 282; for drinking, 67, 104, 107, 117; in aquifers, 71; use patterns for, ix, 39, 55, 67; pollution of, ix, 32, 34, 37, 51, 62, 69, 74, 78, 99, 101, 105, 107–8, 111, 112, 116, 132, 158, 220, 221, 231, 234–36, 239, 268, 275, 280; regional scarcities of, ix, x, 36, 41, 43, 65, 67, 78, 97, 279; use for irrigation, 17, 34, 41, 55, 60, 61, 67, 70, 79, 117, 282 water power, 80 water vapor, 15, 17, 67, 81, 90, 102, 123, 167, 192–94, 196, 197 Watson, Paul, 275 Weart, Spencer R., 294 weathering of rocks, 4, 21, 44, 198, 257 Webb, Robert S., 294 Wegener, Alfred, 9 Wellburn, Alan, 296 West Antarctica ice sheet, 208 Western Europe, 26, 38, 47–50, 58, 62,
83, 112, 137, 142, 167, 176–78, 221, 232, 266 wetlands, 74, 75, 150, 159, 160 whales, 33, 37, 239, 274 white-tailed deer, 157 White, Lynn, Jr., 266 Wilderness Act, 240, 241, 296 Wilderness Society, 231, 240, 276 Wild Rivers Act, 241 Williams, George Ronald, 297 Wilson, R. C. L., 293 windmills, 80, 85 wind power, 80, 84, 95 Wisconsin glacier, 18, 133, 172, 174–76, 181, 222, 281 witchcraft, 265 Woodward, F. I., 294 World Climate Programme, 121 World Conservation Congress, 140 World Conservation Union. See International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) World Food Day, 54 World Health Organization, 68, 121, 291 world hunger, 54, 232 World Meteorological Organization, 208 World Trade Organization, 144 World War II, ix, 9, 48, 50, 51, 60, 77, 104, 137, 147, 150, 169, 179, 231, 235–37, 285 Worldwatch Institute, xi Yellow River, 74 Yellowstone National Park, 229 Yemen, 29 Yosemite National Park, 148, 230 Younger Dryas, 175, 177, 185 Yugoslavia, 28 Zimmerman, Michael E., 297