The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries: The Case of National Disaster Management in Bangladesh and Pakistan in Comparative Perspective : Case of National Disaster Management in Bangladesh and Pakistan in Comparative Pe... [1 ed.] 9783954895496, 9783954890491

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Tina Peissker

The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries

Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

The Case of National Disaster Management in Bangladesh and Pakistan in Comparative Perspective

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Peissker, Tina. The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries: The Case of National Disaster Management in Bangladesh and Pakistan in Comparative

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Tina Peissker The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries: The Case of National Disaster Management in Bangladesh and Pakistan in Comparative Perspective ISBN: 978-3-95489-549-6 Fabrication: Anchor Academic Publishing, an Imprint of Diplomica® Verlag GmbH, Hamburg, 2013

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Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Dieses Werk ist urheberrechtlich geschützt. Die dadurch begründeten Rechte, insbesondere die der Übersetzung, des Nachdrucks, des Vortrags, der Entnahme von Abbildungen und Tabellen, der Funksendung, der Mikroverfilmung oder der Vervielfältigung auf anderen Wegen und der Speicherung in Datenverarbeitungsanlagen, bleiben, auch bei nur auszugsweiser Verwertung, vorbehalten. Eine Vervielfältigung dieses Werkes oder von Teilen dieses Werkes ist auch im Einzelfall nur in den Grenzen der gesetzlichen Bestimmungen des Urheberrechtsgesetzes der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in der jeweils geltenden Fassung zulässig. Sie ist grundsätzlich vergütungspflichtig. Zuwiderhandlungen unterliegen den Strafbestimmungen des Urheberrechtes. Die Wiedergabe von Gebrauchsnamen, Handelsnamen, Warenbezeichnungen usw. in diesem Werk berechtigt auch ohne besondere Kennzeichnung nicht zu der Annahme, dass solche Namen im Sinne der Warenzeichen- und Markenschutz-Gesetzgebung als frei zu betrachten wären und daher von jedermann benutzt werden dürften. Die Informationen in diesem Werk wurden mit Sorgfalt erarbeitet. Dennoch können Fehler nicht vollständig ausgeschlossen werden und der Verlag, die Autoren oder Übersetzer übernehmen keine juristische Verantwortung oder irgendeine Haftung für evtl. verbliebene fehlerhafte Angaben und deren Folgen. © Diplomica Verlag GmbH http://www.diplomica-verlag.de, Hamburg 2013

Peissker, Tina. The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries: The Case of National Disaster Management in Bangladesh and Pakistan in Comparative

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Index

Acronyms

List of Figures, Tables and Graphs

1

Introduction

1.1

Natural Disasters in the Scope of Social Sciences

5

1.2

Theoretical Framework and Conceptualization

9

1.2.1 Governance in Social-Ecological Systems

9

1.2.2 Vulnerability and Adaptation to External Stressors

13

1.2.3 Collective Learning Processes in Social-Ecological Systems

16

1.3

Measuring Collective Learning Processes and Vulnerability

18

1.4

Case Study Selection

26

1.4.1 Why Studying Floods in Developing Countries?

27

1.4.2 Comparative Method and Case-Studies

28

2

33

2.1

Bangladesh - Learning How to Life with Extreme Floods Parameters of Flood and Disaster Management

33

2.1.1 Political Transition and the Governance of Flood Management

33

2.1.2 Complexity of Flood Disasters and Vulnerability

34

2.2

Learning Processes in the Governance of Flood Management before 1988 until Recently

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1

36

2.2.1 Development Prior to1988

36

2.2.2 Changes after the Floods of 1988

46

2.2.3 Changes after the Floods of 1998

54

2.3

Collective Learning Processes in the Governance of Flood and Disaster Management in Bangladesh

64

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3 3.1

Pakistan – First Steps towards Change Parameters of Flood and Disaster Management

67 67

3.1.1 Political Transition and Flood Management

67

3.1.2 Complexity of Flood Disasters and Vulnerability

68

3.2

69

Learning Processes in the Governance of Flood Management after 1971

3.2.1 Development in the Flood and Disaster Management after 1971

69

3.2.2 The Floods of 2010 and their Aftermath

76

3.3

Collective Learning Processes in the Governance of Flood and Disaster Management in Pakistan

4

Conclusion

77

78

4.1

Collective Learning in Flood and Disaster Management: A Comparison

78

4.2

Summary of Findings

81

4.2.1 The Influence of Collective Learning Processes on Vulnerability

82

4.2.2 The Way Collective Learning Changes Vulnerability

82

4.3

84

Limitations and Outlook

86

Annex

99

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Bibliography

Peissker, Tina. The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries: The Case of National Disaster Management in Bangladesh and Pakistan in Comparative

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Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Acronyms CDMP

Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme

DMB

Disaster Management Bureau

DRI

Disaster Risk Index

EPWAPDA

East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FAP

Flood Action Plan

FCD

Flood Control and Drainage

FFC

Federal Flood Commission

FFWC

Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GoB

Government of Bangladesh

GoP

Government of Pakistan

GTZ

German Technical Cooperation

HDI

Human Development Index

IBRD

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

IECO

International Engineering Company Master Plan

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LGED

Local Government Engineering Department

NGO

Non-Governmental Organizations

NWPo

Bangladesh National Water Policy

NWRC

National Water Resources Council

OECD

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

PAR

Pressure and Release Model

SAARC

South Asia Association of Regional Cooperation

UNDP

United Nations Development Programme

UNEP

United Nations Environment Programme

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNISDR

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

WARPO

Water Resources Planning Organization

WHO

World Health Organization

WMO

World Metrological Organization

Peissker, Tina. The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries: The Case of National Disaster Management in Bangladesh and Pakistan in Comparative

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List of Figures, Tables and Graphs Tables

Table 1

Definitions in the Concept of Triple-Loop Learning....................................... 8

Table 2

Institutional Changes in Governance Systems .............................................. 21

Table 3

Changes in Actor Networks in Governance Systems .................................... 22

Table 4

Changes in Multi-Level Interactions in Governance Systems ...................... 23

Table 5

Changes in Governance Modes in Governance Systems .............................. 23

Table 6

Changing Concepts of Uncertainty................................................................ 24

Table 7

Major Keywords Categorized by Stage of Research ..................................... 26

Table 8

Mill’s Design of Difference........................................................................... 28

Table 9

Collective Learning Patterns in Bangladesh and Pakistan ............................ 80

Figures

Figure 1

Scheme of an Adaptation Process ................................................................. 14

Graphs

Physical Exposure and Relative Vulnerability to Floods in South Asia ....... 30

Graph 2

HDI of Bangladesh and Pakistan by comparison from 1980-2010 ............... 32

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Graph 1

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1

Introduction

When exceptionally heavy monsoon rains led to rapidly increasing water levels of the Pakistani Indus River and its tributaries in late July 2010 not a single town hit by the torrents was adequately prepared or even warned despite the presence of information that was given to government officials (Webster et al. 2011; Vastag 2011). The severe unpreparedness of the affected areas is mainly reflected in the numbers of human losses of nearly two thousand but also the number of affected people with over twenty million being directly affected by the floodwater, including displaced and injured people (CRED 2009). Natural disasters like the Indus River Floods are very complex phenomena that result from a variety of determinants including human as well as natural impacts (Wisner et al. 2003). As a catalyst, climate change is supposed to have a significant influence on such hydrological natural disasters in present and near future (IPCC 2007). Though climate change does not change the ways that natural disasters like floods occur, it acts as a catalyst aggravating existing problems (Ibid. 2007: 361). If climate change is not creating any unknown problems, one might ask, why should we start conducting research in fields that have been subject to detailed research for a long time previously? The answer can partly be found within the first paragraph of this introduction: Even though what can be observed stays the same, changes in the patterns and impact of climate change-related events occur at the present time and are predicted to intensify in the course of time. These changing patterns result in very high levels of uncertainty for policy-makers and societies, which potentially can lead to enormous devastation if they are being ignored. General awareness about the severe impacts of disasters on human development has been raised especially on the international level within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals for instance. Based on the heightened awareness about risks, steps towards risk reduction have been initiated on an international and a national level. Consequently, in the year 2000 the United Nations International Strategy on Disaster Reduction Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

(UNISDR) was established with the mandate to improve coordination of disaster reduction. On a national level, disaster risk was incorporated into Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers in order to ensure sustainable development (UNDP 2004). Also in academic circles for many years, research has been conducted on the subject of disaster risk reduction. This lead to an advanced understanding of how various types of natural hazards can interact with societies (Mercer 2010; Wisner et al. 2003). Or rather, how disasters are getting constructed by humans that modify their environment.

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Within the past two decades, climate change became a broadly discussed issue within the discourse on disaster reduction of practitioners and academics (cf. UNISDR 2008; Mercer 2007). Besides efforts at mitigation, adaptation to climate change became a very relevant subject of concern. In order to adapt to the prospective and ongoing impacts of climate change at the international level, relevant instruments have been set up recently. The Adaptation Fund set up under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is one example of these instruments, whose major objective is to support programs and projects in member countries “that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change” (UNFCCC 2011). Vulnerability and risk assessments are therefore seen as important factors determining the prioritization of different countries or regions in order to support their adaptation measures (Adger et al. 2004:15) Recently, studies in the climate change adaptation and disaster risk literature have been conducted in order to make countries comparable with regard to their vulnerability to external hazards (cf. Adger et al. 2004; UNDP 2004; Brooks et al. 2005). A variety of social, political, economic and hazard-specific indicators have been identified in these studies in order to build foundations of a vulnerability or risk index. Adger, Brooks, Bentham and Eriksen conclude in their assessment that the identified indicators of vulnerability “[…] might be of use to international agencies and donors wishing to prioritise adaptation assistance to the most vulnerable nations, but it tells us nothing about the structure and causes of vulnerability.” (Ibid. 2004: 93). The need to develop and test further determinants of vulnerability, which are able to capture its complexity, was therefore addressed by some authors (e.g. Adger et al. 2004: 101; UNDP 2004: 115-16). It is therefore the aim of the present study to address the currently existing gap in the knowledge about determinants of vulnerability. For this purpose, the influence of a more complex determinant on the vulnerability of a society on national level was tested. In order to deepen the insight into a specific field of disaster risk and delimit the scope of this study, Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

a specific hazard was chosen. Thus, floods were chosen to be the major subject to this investigation because flood hazards are very complex phenomena that are largely influenced by the interaction of humans with their environment. Furthermore, floods are a typical hydrological hazard that is expected to be increased by climate change through extreme precipitation and stronger seasonal melt of glaciers (IPCC 2007). In the course of investigating for a determinant that is eligible to capture broader complexity of vulnerability, a side observation gave the decisive impulse. A quantitative 2

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research study conducted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) on the vulnerability of different countries to flood hazards, revealed a rather counter-intuitive result: In four world regions there exists a trend stating that the higher a society’s physical exposure1 to flood hazard is the lower tends to be its relative vulnerability2 (UNDP 2004; Graph 1). A similar trend is getting visible when holding the annual numbers of floods against the relative vulnerability between countries of one region. The hazard frequency and magnitude as external factors therefore seem to have an influence on the relative vulnerability to floods. The context described in this section reminds of learning patterns in such a way that increasing repetition and intensity of an external stress3 potentially advances the reaction of a system to this external stressor. Further support of the assumption that learning is an important determinant of vulnerability was found in theoretic approaches of complex adaptive systems and collective learning processes and their influence on adaptation (cf. Duit and Galaz 2008; Pahl-Wostl 2009; Duit et al. 2010; Loef 2010; Gerlak and Heikkila 2011). Even though there is a majority in the academic literature, which supports that learning processes in theory have a significant impact on the vulnerability of a society, empirical studies in this field are still rare or underway (cf. Pahl-Wostl 2009; Simonsen 2010). The present study therefore aims to diminish gaps within this field of study. The determinant of vulnerability that was chosen for further investigation within the present study will therefore be collective learning processes. The guiding research questions are therefore: Do collective learning processes have a detectable influence on the vulnerability of a society to hazards? And subsequently: How did collective learning processes in Bangladesh and Pakistan influence the vulnerability of their respective societies to flood hazards? In order to find answers to these questions the present study will proceed in a four-step manner. Firstly, a review of the current state of literature on climate adaptation and disaster risk builds a base in order to classify the present analysis and therefore defining its scope. In line with this classification a theoretical framework was developed in order to further Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

enhance the research scope and to conceptualize and define important key components of adaptation and learning. This step comprises of the first two subsections.

1

2

3

Physical exposure refers to the average number of people that have been exposed to floods form 19802000 (UNDP 2004). Relative vulnerability refers to the number of fatalities (annual average from 1980 until 2000) in one million people exposed to floods (annual average from 1980 until 2000) in a country (UNDP 2004). External stress is used here as a neutral term.

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Secondly, the conceptualization made was used in order to determine the methods of the core analysis. In order to assess the influence of learning processes on vulnerability a mixed research design was established. Collective learning processes contain very complex interactions and therefore it is not feasible to analyze them thoroughly based on sets of quantitative indicators. Vulnerability on the contrary can be measured by quantitative indicators human physical security. The present analysis is therefore composed out of a qualitative research about collective learning processes that is connected to a qualitative assessment of vulnerability (cf. Creswell 2009). In order to make informed statements about the influence of collective learning processes on vulnerability two case studies have been chosen that are compared following the example of Mill’s Design of Difference (Ibid. 2009 [1872]). The aim of this comparative method is to proof that higher vulnerability is connected to lower levels of collective learning. Major obstacle in this comparison was the identification of interfering variables, which had to be controlled. Collective learning processes on national level demand long periods of time and therefore can only be captured using information and data over extended time scales. In order to capture collective learning processes an ex-post research was conducted that covers the major developments in the governance of flood and disaster management of the two case studies from the early 1900s. This research was done based on a review of existing primary and secondary literature including majorly field studies, sector studies, policy studies, reports and legal documents. In order to systematize the information gathered and to identify learning processes within the case studies a research framework developed by Claudia Pahl Wostl (2010) in the water management literature was considered. The third step includes the actual analysis based on the previously outlined research design. The case studies of Bangladesh and Pakistan were chosen under defined criterion oriented towards Mill’s Design of Difference (Ibid. 2009 [1872]) and firstly analyzed separately. Analyzing both case studies separately has the advantage that learning processes can be illustrated in a comprehensive manner. The disadvantage of this design draws clearCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

ly from the risk of falling into narrative analysis. In order to avoid this, the case studies include cross references. Lastly, the knowledge acquired about collective learning processes in the flood and disaster development of Bangladesh and Pakistan will be used to do a final comparison in order to draw conclusions on whether learning processes influenced the vulnerability of the populations in both countries. Furthermore, the question of how vulnerability and collective learning processes are related to each other will be discussed. 4

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1.1

Natural Disasters in the Scope of Social Sciences

Since the early seventies increasing attention is being focused on the subject of climate change in the scientific world, leading to the first World Climate Conference by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1979. A long period of controversy, primarily led by the IPCC and skeptics, about the existence of global climatic change and the degree of influence by human activities, started during the intervening years. In 2005 the Kyoto Protocol entered into force, indicating that a vast majority of countries consent on the acknowledgement of global climate change as an impact of human activities. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC in 2007 reconfirms this consent and draws a sophisticated picture of observations of impacts that can be drawn back to climatic changes. Parallel to a growing awareness and recognition of climate change and its mitigation, the problem of adaptation aroused attention since the early nineties. During this period of time, the IPCC started addressing the importance of adaptation until it was considered a priority area for research in the Third Assessment Report in 2001. Literature on climate change adaptation and its impact on vulnerability had been strongly increasing ever since. The complexity of adaptation to climate change becomes apparent when scrutinizing its major fields of study like the physical science base of climate change, environmental governance systems, structures and determinants of adaptation processes and vulnerability or disaster risk management. Considering that this list is still only a rough picture of all components, clear systematizations and definitions are a crucial part of any study conducted in this field. The present study does not discuss the physical science base, but covers all of the other areas mentioned above to different extents. It will therefore be based on the theorization of adaptation and governance, vulnerability and adaptive capacity while applying these underlying concepts to hazard-specific disaster risk management. Out of the variety of literature on adaptation, vulnerability, resilience or adaptive capacity4 derives a vast amount of definitions that often cover different concepts with similar terminology. Most of these differences in meanings exist because terms are used contextCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

specific and sometimes authors do not explicitly refer to other uses of the term in order to differentiate their own concepts from others. If unnoticed by the reader this variety of meanings can cause confusion and misinterpretations.

4

In this study, papers focusing on adaptation, vulnerability or resilience are referred to as adaptation literature. Other designations like resilience literature (eg. Loef 2010) for instance are also used, referring to a similar field of study.

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An illustrative example for this ambiguity is the use of the term adaptive capacity, a very often used term within the adaptation literature. Whereas the practically-oriented adaptation literature5 (e.g. Smit and Wandel 2006; Handmer 2003; IPCC 2001) stresses materialistic capacities to adapt in their definition, theoretically-oriented adaptation literature 6 (Pahl-Wostl 2009; Armitage et al. 2010; Diduck 2010) tends to stress the ability to adapt by itself. Also there exists a mélange out of both streams defining adaptive capacity as “the ability or capacity of a system to modify or change its characteristics or behavior so as to cope better with existing or anticipated external stresses.” (Adger et al. 2004: 34). Again, the use of many terms in adaptation literature is very context-specific and should always be considered this way. In order to reduce complexity and enhance transparency in the adaptation literature, a number of authors developed typologies sorting literature by purpose, research design or other criteria. Smit and Wandel (2006) distinguish four types of climate change adaptation literature according to their purpose: measuring the effectiveness of given adaptation measures (e.g. Fankhauser 1998; Parry 2002); comparing the utility of different adaptation measures to a specific system (e.g. Winters et al. 1998; Parry et al. 2001); prioritization of geographical areas by measuring vulnerability (e.g. Adger et al. 2004; Brooks et al. 2005) or investigating adaptive capacity or needs of a certain area in order to derive policy recommendations (e.g. Keskitalo 2004; Ibid. 2010). Even though this distinction provides a decent overview in the practical field, it leaves out literature that rather concentrates on the process of adaptation in a systemic context (overview in: Van Nieuwaal et al. 2009). In other words, parallel to the research on adaptation in practice, a section of literature is concerned with the human behavior that is the underlying driver of adaptation (Pelling and High 2005: 1). Governance-centered studies on climate change adaptation are of importance for a better understanding of the process of adaptation within a governance system. Governance systems within most of this literature are treated as complex systems that are confronted Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

with non-linear external stressors that create uncertainty (e.g. Levin 2003; Holland 2006; Bauer and Schneider 2007; Duit et al. 2010; Loef 2010). The major subject of study is a system’s response to stressors and the effectiveness of certain settings within a system like actor constellations. 5

6

Practically-oriented literature refers to papers that primarily focus on concrete solutions in order to adapt to climate change or measuring vulnerability. Theoretically-oriented literature refers to literature that focuses on structures and “behavior” of systems that lead to adaptation or steer adaptation.

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Within the present study, the literature on governance and adaptation from a conceptual perspective is of special interest. General aim of literature on conceptual frameworks is “to converge the inherent complexity and unpredictability of ecosystem dynamics into new governance or management concepts” (Van Nieuwaal et al. 2009: 15). Van Nieuwaal, Driessen, Spit and Termeer (2009) attribute the concepts of adaptive governance; resilience management; adaptive management; adaptive co-management; adaptive collaborative management; environmental governance; and earth system governance to this section of literature. Focus of these analyses is the transformation in a system that is targeted on adapting it to an external stressor. Since this implies that a system recognizes a threat and actively tries to defend itself against it, these approaches impose high standards to the systems of concern. In transformation studies, concepts on collective learning are an important field of analysis. Also different conceptual frameworks in the governance and adaptation literature identify learning processes as parts of adaptation processes (e.g. Armitage et al. 2008; Pahl-Wostl 2009; Loef 2010). Learning is assumed to be a social phenomenon occurring at multiple levels in such papers (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2007; Ibid. 2009; Diduck 2010). Even though it is widely recognized that learning processes are important for governance systems in order to sustain (Allen 2001; Armitage et al. 2008; Duit and Galaz 2008), only few studies exist on how these processes occur in practice and what factors foster them (Gerlak and Heikkila 2011: 2). The present study aims on further closing this gap and therefore relies on an existing approach. The “Conceptual framework for analyzing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes” developed by Pahl-Wostl (2009) is a cornerstone for the empirical analysis of the present study. Major objective of Pahl-Wostl’s paper is to develop a framework allowing researchers to systematically analyze changes within resource governance systems as multi-level learning processes (Ibid. 2009: 355). The entire paper draws back to a preceding empirical study on water resource governance regimes Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

in different industrial and developing countries on behalf of the European Commission (Huntjens et al. 2008). Thus, it is a very relevant framework of the present study for it focuses on a similar objective of study. Resource governance systems are characterized by four major features: i.

“the influence of formal and informal institutions,

ii.

the role of state and non-state actors,

iii.

the nature of multi-level interactions and 7

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iv.

the relative importance of bureaucratic hierarchies, markets and networks.” (Pahl-Wostl 2009: 356).

Changes in resource governance regimes are conceived as societal and social learning processes (Ibid.:358). Societal learning is not understood as a change within an entire population (in contrast to Diduck 2010), but as a change taking place in the part of a society that experiences a common obstacle either as persons affected, organizations in charge or as decision-makers. Social learning refers to a way of learning that is particularly important in this framework because the involvement of various actors at multiple levels is supposed to lead to a higher adaptive capacity in a system (Folke et al. 2005; Pahl-Wostl et al. 2007; Ibid. 2009). The concept of learning is based on a stepwise model that divides learning into three levels. This concept of multi-level learning derives from organizational theory and presumes that organizations undergo transformations of different qualities (Argyris and Schön 1978). The different learning levels an organization or society can undergo are characterized by their degree of change (Table 1). Table 1: Definitions in the Concept of Triple-Loop Learning Single-loop

Routines, basic assumptions and habits are not questioned, only a change in

learning

the current course is being considered. This level of learning therefore relates to coping but is more advanced than a reactive response.

Double-loop

Basic assumptions and the framework are getting changed but the overall con-

learning

text stays the same.

Triple-loop

The overall context and determinants of the framework are changed.

learning Source: Author’s design derived from Argyris and Schön 1978; Pahl-Wostl 2009.

In order to make learning patterns detectable within governance regimes, Pahl-Wostl (2009) creates a matrix that analyzes changes in governance regimes and attributes them to

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the three levels of learning. Within this matrix the four major features of governance and the capacity of dealing with uncertainty are focused upon. Additionally, the manner in which uncertainty is treated within these governance systems is considered. The indicators of change derive from the conceptualization of learning as well as the empirical background and thereby provide a balanced scope on learning processes. Additionally, a critical evaluation of Pahl-Wostl’s framework is integrated in the conclusion of the present study.

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This evaluation includes the underlying theoretical concepts as well as the empirical dimension. Disaster risk management or in short disaster management is another relevant field of study to this study for it relates to the empirical case studies that include flood risk management. Disaster management is a considerably new area of study (GTZ 2002), which is mainly due to a paradigm shift away from reactive strategies towards more preventive approaches (Yodmani 2001). Literature on disaster risk management is often of a practical nature, concentrating on case studies and strategies towards a better management of risk (Mercer 2010:248). Besides empirically oriented studies there is also literature on theoretical aspects of disaster risk. Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon and Davis explain for instance how risk is constructed through environmental, economical, social and political influences (Wisner et al. 2003).

1.2

Theoretical Framework and Conceptualization

The present research question, in general, focuses on the interaction of a dynamic external stressor with a given society. Additionally, uncertainty about the external stressor is strengthened through projections of further uncertainty, in this case climate change. Since this requires the analysis of highly complex and non-linear interlinkages (cf. Duit and Galaz 2008: 312), a systemic approach is used as theoretical base throughout the analysis. The concepts of governance and governance systems, vulnerability and collective learning are in the centre of focus for they help explaining how collective learning processes can be detected and understood within the following case studies.

1.2.1 Governance in Social-Ecological Systems The following subsection aims on highlighting factors within social-ecological systems that are relevant for this system’s ability to adapt to external shocks like natural disasters. It therefore starts with a brief introduction to important concepts in the governance research. Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Subsequently, specific components of governance systems are highlighted, which build the basis for the analysis of the two case studies. From a systems theory perspective, the functioning of a social system cannot be solely seen as a consequence of the political system or state7 (Luhmann 1975; Ibid. 2000). The present study connects to this notion and draws back to a governance concept that consid7

The term ‘state’ in this context describes the organization of a political system for the purpose of selfconstruction and self-sustaining in a society.

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ers hierarchical and non-hierarchical modes of social coordination, which may or may not include governmental involvement (Mayntz 2004; Risse and Lehmkuhl 2006; Börzel 2010). Throughout this study the term governance refers to “the entirety of all co-existing modes of collectively regulating social matters” 8 (Mayntz 2004: 66). This definition includes different modes of social coordination, state and non-state actors and multi-level coordination that are going to be discussed further. Governance is an often used, but nevertheless blurry term within the social sciences. Though, it is often confused with government, the actual meaning of both terms differ significantly. From a political science perspective, government and governance have similar outputs9, while differences derive from the mode of establishing rules or steering collective action. In contrast to hierarchical structures that are a defining feature of government, governance refers to less restrictive mechanisms of governing, which can also include private actors (Stoker 1998: 17). Governance perspective can therefore explain to certain extends how hierarchical and non-hierarchical patterns can be part of one system simultaneously. For the past decades a paradigm shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ became apparent within social sciences (Van Nieuwaal 2009: 9), which is furthermore an indicator that a change in perceptions has occurred (Benz 2004: 13). This shift can mainly be explained by the observation that there exist spaces like the international system, weak states or Public-Private Partnerships that cannot be explained by state structures and hierarchical bureaucracies (Ibid. 2004). Especially when focusing on the developing world, this concept plays an important role because it provides explanations on how a weak state with limited steering capacity can still be able to rule a country. The primary subject to this study will be the water- and flood management sector10 and the disaster management sector, whilst the influence of other relevant sectors like agriculture and forestry will be considered subsequently in the two case studies. Both these sectors form an environmental governance system that is a social-ecological system, whose purpose it is to govern human behavior towards a particular ecological system. In order to Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

analyze the structures of environmental governance systems it is useful to divide them into

8 9

10

This translation was derived from Risse and Lehmkuhl (2006: 7). The SFB 700 (2009) distinguishes between the provision of rules and collective goods as common outputs of governance, which coincides with outputs of government. Differences derive from the ways these goods are provided, which have nevertheless also influences on the actual outputs. Flood management is part of the water sector. Therefore, the present analysis mainly focuses on a resource governance regime (cf. Pahl- Wostl 2009), which is referred to more broadly as environmental governance system in the following sections.

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their respective institutions, actors and their interactions and finally modes of governance (Pahl-Wostl 2009: 356).11 Institutions refer to rules, which have been set up in order for a social entity to coordinate different kinds of interactions in order to reduce uncertainty for its members and also external actors (cf. North 1990: 1-6). These rules can either be established formally or practiced informally, whereas informal institutions can be transformed into formal institutions and both types influence each other. Most importantly, formal and informal institutions differ in the ways they can be enforced (cf. Ibid. 1990: 4). Legislative frameworks can help individuals to enforce their rights at higher levels like it was the case after the floods of 2010 in Pakistan when numerous petitioners held governmental agencies and authorities responsible for not fulfilling their duties which have been defined in the Disaster Management Ordinance and the respective Act (cf. section 3.2.2). Before these competencies were not formalized in a law, it was not possible for the aggrieved party to claim for compensation and responsibilities. Within the analysis of the case studies particular emphasis is placed on formal institutions and prevailing paradigms in flood- and disaster management. In contrast to Pahl-Wostl’s framework normative institutions are not considered within the present analysis, because these refer to informal habitual norms at the micro-level. The following analysis though, concentrates on macro-level developments with emphasis on the national level. As environmental governance systems include a vast range of actors at different levels, competencies and responsibilities become blurred. The case study analysis indicates that international donors and agencies, the federal government, local governments, civil society and various kinds of stakeholders are key actors involved in these complex governance systems to different extents. Participatory approaches have become important for environmental governance, which has been recognized by academics as well as practitioners (cf. Ostrom 1999; Sultana et al. 2008; Pahl-Wostl 2009; Ibid. 2007). Especially in environmental governance systems knowledge of local individuals can contribute to a large Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

extent to reduce uncertainty (Ostrom 1999: 520-21). Though participation is generally regarded as the second way besides national government especially in developing countries, it also includes weaknesses. Especially problems of legitimacy, lack of representing poor locals and the notion that what locals want does not necessarily mean that it is the solution

11

Based on Pahl-Wostl’s framework of analysis these four dimensions of governance systems will be the leading concept of analyzing structures and changes within environmental governance systems (Ibid. 2009).

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benefiting the largest share of all stakeholders are hindering the positive effects of participation. Decisive for the impact of participatory processes are the degrees to which affected segments of society match with those who take action in building, maintaining or operating flood protection facilities for instance. In Bangladesh autonomous flood management by local stakeholders has been connected to some degree with formal governmental organizations (cf. Sultana et al. 2008). Diverse actor networks do not automatically generate broad benefits within societies but they are certainly a prerequisite for reducing uncertainty by ensuring multiple sources of knowledge and experience. Therefore, diversification of actors enhances the capacity of a system to adapt to external influences (Pahl-Wostl 2009; Folke et al. 2005). Multi-level interactions are a forming characteristic of environmental governance systems since governance may include actors from supranational- down to individual level (cf. Hooghe and Marks 2003; Benz 2004). Interactions can emerge between actors of one level, which is often referred to as horizontal coordination, and also between actors of different levels, known as vertical coordination (van Nieuwaal et al. 2009; Scharpf 1997). Consequently, vertical coordination is the more decisive process when analyzing multilevel interactions. From a normative perspective a system’s capability to react to non-linear external shocks is getting increased when it includes more than one centre of governance that is able to operate independently (cf. Ostrom 2001; Duit and Galaz 2008; Pahl-Wostl 2009). The reason behind this suggested correlation is that these polycentric systems can counterbalance failures and provide multiple sources of knowledge and experience in order to mitigate, react and respond to external shocks (cf. Ostrom 2001; Pahl-Wostl 2009). Like Claudia Pahl Wostl points out: “Multi-level governance in polycentric systems implies that decision making authority is distributed in a nested hierarchy and does not reside at one single level” (Ibid. 2009: 357). Decentralization is therefore a crucial characteristic of systems that are more resilient towards external shocks. It is important to note in this context that whilst the different centers of governance are able to act independently Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

from one another, they need to exercise vertical and horizontal coordination and cooperation in order to create a functioning system (cf. Kooiman 2000; Pahl-Wostl 2009; Ibid. 2008). The major driver of governance systems is interactions among their respective actors. Out of the constellation of actors and the ways they interact, different modes of governance can be derived. Kooiman identifies three major modes of governance that is selfgovernance, co-governance and hierarchical governance (Ibid. 2007: 10). These three 12

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types relate to the degree of formality of institutions, whilst self-governance is the most informal arrangement. A second central dimension of governance is the involvement of state and non-state actors (Thompson et al. 1991: 228-29). By considering the two dimensions of governance modes like discussed above, networks, markets and bureaucratic hierarchies can be classified as the major modes of governance (Thompson et al. 1991). Within the two case studies bureaucratic hierarchies were the dominant mode of governance, whilst networks and markets existed but had only limited or no access to decision-making. Bureaucratic hierarchies are driven by state actors through formalized channels, while networks are organized in a very informal manner including only a limited proportion of state actors. Markets are dominated by non-state actors and regulated by formal as well as informal institutions (Thompson 1991; Pahl-Wostl 2009). Following Pahl-Wostl’s framework, equilibrium of all three modes of governance is the most desirable constellation for a system in order to adapt to sudden external changes (Ibid. 2009: 358). All four elements are important to be considered in order to observe substantial changes in environmental governance systems. Within this section the basic components and concepts of governance and environmental governance systems were explained. The next subsection will address approaches that are concerned with how these systems interact with their complex environment.

1.2.2 Vulnerability and Adaptation to External Stressors Environmental governance systems are considered to be complex adaptive systems. This is due to the extremely high levels of uncertainty and complexity that evolve while governing ecological systems. Changes in such systems are occurring on a frequent basis and are hardly predictable (Duit and Galaz 2008: 312-13). Human behavior has a great influence on ecological systems causing further changes. Whether a social system is vulnerable to the changes in its natural environment is not solely determined by exogenous factors. In order to fully understand vulnerability, endogenous factors like dependence of a society on Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

agriculture play an important role (Adger and Vinecent 2004; Brooks 2003). Each social entity has a certain coping range, which indicates to what degree it is resilient to external stresses (Smit and Pilifosova 2003: 12-14). This coping range is a product of factors like the sensitivity, the resilience and the adaptive capacity of a system. The following example shall clarify the relationships among these factors. A quarter of the Dutch territory lies beneath sea level making it extraordinarily sensitive to any rise of the sea water level. Planners were commissioned to build dykes and other flood protection 13

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structures over a thousand years ago in order to build up resilience. Sensitivity in this case emerges on one hand out of the geographical conditions on the territory and on the other hand out of the circumstance that humans settled within this particular location. The adaptive capacity of this system lies in the mental and physical capability of the planners and workers firstly to find a solution and secondly to construct proper structures in the right locations. The process of planning and constructing dykes is considered adaptation. Through the capability to adapt and the actual adaptation, the system improved its resilience to sea floods. As long as the coping range of a country to a specific stressor is not exceeded, meaning the resilience of a system is able to absorb the negative effects, a society is in balance to its environment (cf. figure 1). Figure 1: Scheme of an Adaptation Process Adaptation (- or +) Exposure (-)

Sensitivity Resilience

External Stressor

Adaptive capacity

Source: Author’s design derived from Smit et al. 2000; Smit and Pilifosova 2003; Adger and Vinecent 2004; Smit and Wandel 2006. (-) stands for negative effects (+) stands for positive effects

Vulnerability emerges when the coping range of a system is exceeded meaning that the existing resilience is not sufficient in order to absorb the negative effects of the external stressor. This is a very much simplified view on vulnerability and how it develops. Vulnerability implies very many dimensions referring to the ways it develops and the ways it is reduced in societies. A more specified definition of vulnerability must therefore include what type of stressor is considered (Brooks 2003: 3). The focus of the present analysis lies Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

on the external stressor of natural disasters, which is considered an extreme case. Following Wisner, Blaiki, Cannon and Davis vulnerability is defined as: “ […]the characteristics of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard […]” (Ibid. 2003: 11). This definition represents socially constructed vulnerability. Besides this type of vulnerability the present analysis also highlights biophysical determinants of vulnerability that 14

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derive from the intensity and frequency of a natural hazard (cf. Brooks 2003; Wisner et al. 2003). The assumption therefore is that high intensity and frequency of a hazard contribute positively to the adaptive capacity of an affected society. Improvements in adaptive capacity, in turn, decreases vulnerability of a system (cf. Armitage and Plummer 2010). Accordingly, vulnerability is by no means a static condition within any system. The approach of complex adaptive systems assumes that external stress will at a certain point result in internal change of the affected system in order for it to adapt (cf. Duit and Galaz 2008). The point at which adaptation measures are taken up is hardly predictable, especially due to the complexity in the relations between key actors in highly differentiated governance systems. In these systems the group of people that are affected by a natural disaster for instance does not necessarily match the group that holds the powers and capacity of initiating adequate counter measures (Sultana et al. 2008: 360-61). The path from the perception of the risk to collective action can therefore be extremely challenging, especially under conditions of low compliance and communication among stakeholders and decision-makers (Ostrom 1998: 16-18). Sultana, Johnson and Thompson furthermore highlight how natural hazards combined with advanced media coverage can accelerate policy debates and therefore enhance communication about risk (Ibid. 2010). Once a risk has been acknowledged and collective action was taken in order to adapt, the considered measure must not necessarily be an adequate solution to the problem. Adaptation measures can be harmful itself (cf. Fig. 1) like in the Bangladeshi case where largescale embankment structures were viewed as final solution to the flood problem. In contrast, they turned out to be harmful due to their lack of flexible regulation of water flow (Section 2.2.2). The manner in which adaptation takes place influences the sustainability of the measures that are undertaken. Firstly, adaptation can take place as autonomous reaction to a certain event with limited long-term problem solving capacity. The present analysis, in turn, concentrates on adaptation as a consciously planned activity that is rather subject to collective action than autonomous adaptation. Planned adaptation activities can be either Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

reactive or anticipatory (cf. Smit and Wandel 2006; Smit et al 2000; Nykvist and Hahn 2011). Anticipatory adaptation is the more advanced type and demands high levels of cooperation and knowledge generation among other factors in order to emerge (cf. Smit and Wandel 2006; Berkes et al. 2008: 11-12). In conclusion, for this type of adaptation a systemic structure is needed that has the capacity of overcoming reactive adaptation. Adaptive capacity is considered to be the key concept in order to reduce vulnerability in a system. As already mentioned, adaptive capacity refers to all sorts of resources within 15

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a system that enable it to adapt to its environment (cf. Section 1.1). The example of the Netherlands reveals that adaptive capacity implies ‘physical’ and ‘mental’ capacities of a governance system. 12 The present analysis stresses the importance of ‘mental’ capacities since they are needed to build up physical capacities like finances and infrastructure for instance. In accordance, the present analysis draws on Pahl-Wostl’s definition of adaptive capacity as a working definition, because it highlights skills. Adaptive capacity is therefore referred to as: “the ability of a resource governance system to […] alter […] and […] convert structural elements as response to experienced or expected changes in the societal or natural environment” (Pahl-Wostl 2009: 355). Learning processes are closely related to the adaptive capacity of environmental governance systems, since they enable them to govern in an anticipatory manner. Through the collective acquisition of knowledge and experience, maladaptations are less likely to occur and easier to accommodate (Lebel et al. 2010).

1.2.3 Collective Learning Processes in Social-Ecological Systems Collective learning is an important subject to the present analysis for it is presumed to be a very relevant determinant of vulnerability. This subsection seeks to highlight this nexus and establish a clear picture of what learning is in particular and what factors encourage it. It will therefore only focus on concepts of collective learning, which are particularly relevant for environmental governance systems. Theories and models on learning processes, also within collectives, are necessarily diverse whereas topics range from methodological aspects of learning processes to cognitive patterns of individual learners over to learning processes in international organizations.13 Out of these theories and models only a limited array is relevant to the present analysis. Within the many concepts of learning, two dimensions of learning are especially highlighted (Gerlak and Heikkila 2011: 3). Firstly, collective learning implies a step-wise Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

process, which mainly consists of the acquisition of knowledge, the dissemination and processing of information and the transformation of knowledge within an organizational framework (Argyris and Schön 1996: 2-3). This process has different facets depending on 12

13

Physical capacities here refer to technologies, manpower and the financial resources in order to employ these two. Mental capacities refer to managerial skills, knowledge generation and appliance and more specifically learning skills. For a sophisticated overview of theories and models of learning Blackmore is very recommendable (Ibid. 2007:520-23).

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whether learning occurs in an experimental or in a targeted manner (Henry 2009). The process of collective learning is furthermore to be delineated from plain reaction to an external change (Löf 2010: 531-32). In contrast to reactive behavior, collective learning is considered more sustainable with regard to its time scale and the depth of change. In the present analysis the process described here is not regarded as being sufficient without transferring knowledge into substantial results in order to achieve learning. Collective learning is therefore a process in which knowledge is transferred into different kinds of changes, also called products of learning (Argyris and Schön 1996: 2-3). It is important to notice that learning does not necessarily lead to improved products, since experimental learning for instance even relies on trial and error schemes (Gerlak and Heikkila 2011: 3-4). Therefore failed trials can lead to new understanding and reconsiderations of strategies. In order to decide which event is considered a collective learning process and which is not, the present analysis proceeds in a two-step fashion. Firstly, sustainable changes within the scope of the case studies are detected, which is followed by an analysis of the process that led to the observed change. For instance, a fundamental change in policies, which is not based on newly acquired knowledge or experiences14, is likely to be a plain product of political or economic interests but not learning. Also policy that lacks the attempt of its implementation is not considered learning according to the understanding of the present study. In summary, learning is expected to be a purposeful activity as opposed to fast and reactive decisions that are not based on past developments or lack any attempt to be put into practice. Collective learning processes differ in their depth of change (Argyris and Schön 1978). The concept of multiple learning loops as illustrated in Table 1 characterizes the different stages of learning that ranges from single to triple-loop learning. Single-loop learning is merely an adaptation to external change that implies changes of existing structures but not underlying beliefs. As the level of learning increases, the extent of change also increases (Pahl-Wostl 2009: 359). It is assumed that the quality of learning has furCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

thermore an impact on vulnerability. This assumption is based on the finding that higher levels of learning indicate that a system is able to encounter non-linear external changes in a more flexible manner (cf. Argyris and Schön 1978; Pahl-Wostl 2009; Löf 2009).

14

New knowledge refers to newly induced studies or studies that have not been considered before for instance. New experiences can be previous failures of policies or external experiences like best practice examples that are relevant for the system of concern.

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Finally, factors that supposedly support collective learning in environmental governance systems are summarized in order to explain how change in the highlighted components of these systems is interpreted within the framework of analysis. Major factors constraining collective learning in governance systems are therefore centralized systems, rigid bureaucracies, poor access to information by decision makers and the population and a lack of vertical integration (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2007; Mostert et al. 2007; Huntjens et al. 2008; PahlWostl 2009). These assumptions are based on multiple empirical studies mainly in European countries and are an important input of Pahl-Wostl’s framework of analysis (Ibid 2009). Based on these assumptions important conclusions on how learning is shaped within environmental governance systems have been drawn. A central weak point in organizational learning theory and in general learning theory is that concepts tend to be quite blurry and overlapping (Lähteenmäki et al. 2001). For the purpose of the present study a relatively limited range of concepts of organizational learning was considered in order to avoid over-complexity, which leads to blurred conceptualities. It is important to notice that all of the theories, models and concepts introduced in this section are not entirely new and have been considered in the research of systems theory, organizational theory and other fields of research before. Climate change and more particularly adaptation to climate change opened new channels of applying this existing knowledge to a new context, whilst some areas have been highlighted or regarded under a new perspective. A reconsideration of existing knowledge and its application to new contexts can be an important way in order to achieve advanced systems and modes of governance.

1.3

Measuring Collective Learning Processes and Vulnerability

Inherently, this study seeks to substantiate the nexus between vulnerability and collective learning processes. It thereby lays open in what particular ways vulnerability is influenced Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

by collective learning processes. Starting point of the analysis is the paradox that developing countries with low levels of physical exposure to flood hazards tend to be more vulnerable than developing countries suffering from higher levels of physical exposure. The underlying analysis goes beyond the plain assessment of social, economic and geographic indicators that may determine vulnerability. It does so by focusing on the actual processes that decide how vulnerable two different societies are to extreme flood events.

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Before attempting an operationalization in the area of flood disaster management it is important to highlight some obstacles in this respect. Social-ecological systems are characterized by a high degree of complexity, which is even getting increased if it comes to natural disasters (Birkland 2006). This in turn means that each attempt to convert such systems into a model or theory has to accept a high degree of simplification. In order to avoid oversimplification though, it is important to reflect empiricism in the models and highlight limitations in order to further enhance their applicability. This study majorly works deductive by testing already achieved assumptions and theoretical frameworks in two empirical case studies using comparative method. Applying learning theory to social-ecological governance systems implies the difficulties described in advance. The present study tries to provide a more holistic picture of collective learning by using an analytical framework that is based on theory as well as empiricism. An analysis of collective learning patterns in socio-ecologic systems may therefore not be able to cover aspects of the individual level. In the case of collective learning in flood management this means that not the single learning of a member in a community is in the centre of observation. In turn, informal networks are considered in this analysis and in this way can balance the fading-out of the individual level to some degree (cf. PahlWostl 2009). A key challenge of the present study is to make collective learning processes detectable because not every change means that collective learning processes have been taken place (Newig et al. 2010: 8). In order to meet this challenge, the following section aims to conceptualize learning processes in social systems following the conceptual framework of Pahl-Wostl (2009). The social systems of concern are resource governance systems which are characterized by their institutions, actors, multi-level interactions and governance modes (Ibid.: 356). In the scenario of reoccurring extreme weather events these systems are exposed to an unpredictable external stressor. Climate change further increases the uncertainty about this hazard for it causes increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

weather events. In such a scenario adaptation to the external stressor appears to be a logical reaction. Adaptation is therefore closely interlinked with learning processes within the present framework for it analyzes learning processes that foster lower levels of vulnerability. Learning in the context of adaptation relates to a system’s ability to adapt to a changing environment, which is referred to as adaptive capacity in this conceptual framework. Adaptive capacity is understood as 19

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“[…] the ability of a resource governance system to first alter processes and if required convert structural elements as response to experienced or expected changes in the societal or natural environment.”(PahlWostl 2009: 355). However, adaptation cannot be regarded as an automatism that begins as an external stress starts interfering and causes capacity-building to adapt in future. Before planned adaptation can take place at national level, the interplay of a stimulus and how it is perceived and the political commitment (cf. Thompson and Gaviria 2004: 53) decide whether or not a system starts reacting as a whole. The nature of the stimulus can have some influence on the commitment of a system to react. Single natural disasters of high magnitude for instance tend to have higher influence on the agenda setting process than a series of similar events with lower magnitude (Birkland 2006: 19), which is a crucial factor in the Pakistan case study. Though in general it is almost impossible to predict at what point a political system will start reacting to an external stress or whether it reacts at all. Accordingly, adaptation and therefore learning can only be detected but not predicted in the current state of knowledge. Uncertainty is a crucial factor within this analysis for it creates obstacles that can barely be overcome by traditional means and therefore demands rethinking existing forms of collective action (Duit and Galaz 2008). Complex phenomena like extreme weather events create high levels of uncertainty especially because they are assumed to increase in intensity through climate change. Under these prospects habitual means are hardly sufficient anymore in order to manage risk. In order to maintain its status quo or even benefit from changes, a governance system needs to change its own structures and modes of coordination. These particular changes are identified as collective learning processes within this conceptual framework. So far, the environment of collective learning in resource government systems has been considered, which is now followed by its operationalization. Analyses of collective Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

learning patterns can focus on the process as well as the products of learning (Gerlak and Heikkila 2011: 3). Accordingly, the present study uses the following strategies in order to “measure” collective learning processes: i.

Out of existing empirical and conceptual studies identifying factors that foster learning. Based on these factors drawing conclusions to the process of learning in the case studies chosen.

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ii.

Focusing on potential outcomes of learning processes15 that serve as indicators for successful completion of collective learning processes.

Outcomes of collective learning processes in governance regimes are not measured by their relative success since experimental learning like by trial and error can be an indicator for learning processes (cf. Fazey et al. 2005; Gerlak and Heikkila 2011). The present study supports the notion that collective learning processes, also if they imply changes that are not successful16, in long-term perspective support the process of adaptation and thereby make systems less vulnerable to hazards. Changes in governance regimes are of different impact and can therefore be attributed to different levels of learning. Pahl-Wostl attributes changes in governance regimes to different levels of learning in a matrix. Therefore all four major features of governance regimes are taken into consideration. The present study will analyze the empirical case studies following the criteria established in this matrix. Institutional changes are the first important indicator of learning processes since they imply that attention has been directed to a certain problem and new ways of handling it have been considered (cf. Table 2).

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Table 2: Institutional Changes in Governance Systems Single loop

Double loop

Triple loop

Institutions-general

No calling into question of established institutions, signs of unilateral reinterpretation

Reinterpretation of established Institutions by many parties

Established institutions changed and/or new institutions implemented

Regulative institutions

Existing regulations are strictly followed and used to justify established routines

Regulatory frameworks identified as major constraints for innovation

Formal substantial changes in regulatory frameworks, new policies implemented

New by-laws and interpretations of existing law to accommodate exceptions

More juridical conflicts about rule interpretation

Institutional change towards more flexible regulations that leave room for context specific implementation. More process regulations

[…]

[…]

[…]

[…]

15

16

These outcomes are changes detected in the four major components of the environmental governance systems of Bangladesh and Pakistan. Success in this study is measured by the ability of a country to reduce its relative vulnerability.

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Cultural-cognitive institutions

Discourse remains in established paradigms that are refined.

New ideas emerge beyond isolated groups

Discourse dominated by new paradigm […]

Source: Pahl-Wostl 2009: 360

Participation of different stakeholders is a key feature in order to encourage collective learning processes that aim on increasing resilience in resource governance systems (cf. Kilvington 2005; Pahl-Wostl 2007; Newig et al. 2010). Even though broad participation in different stages of the policy process is not a guarantee for successful learning, it is a prerequisite for multiple resources of information and communication between key stakeholders (cf. Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith 1993; Cooney and Lang 2007; Pahl-Wostl 2009). Not only the variety of actors decides whether collective learning takes place but also the roles the actors and how they develop and transform over time. Accordingly, changes in actor constellations are considered another indicator for collective learning processes (PahlWostl 2009: 357; cf. Table 3). Table 3: Changes in Actor Networks in Governance Systems Actor network

Single loop

Double loop

Triple loop

Actors remain mainly within their networkscommunities of practice

Explicit search for advice/ opinion from actors outside of established network […] New roles emerge- e.g. facilitators in participatory processes Arguments about identify frames- e.g. what does it mean to be an ‘‘engineer’’ Boundary spanners of increasing importance that start to connect different networks- communities of practice

Changes in network boundaries and connections

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Established roles and identities are Not called into question

New actors groups and roles have become established Changes in power structure […] Identity frames/ roles get blurred/ less important, rather joint approaches than isolated performance according to one’s role

Source: Pahl-Wostl 2009: 360

Collective learning processes furthermore have impacts on how participation is formalized and established within a resource governance system. Changes towards a formalized participation of actors from multiple levels further indicate higher levels of collective learning like double- or triple-loop learning (Pahl-Wostl 2009: 357-8; cf. Table 4). The vertical

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coordination between national, local or international actors therefore stands in the focus of analysis. Table 4: Changes in Multi-Level Interactions in Governance Systems Single loop Multi-level inter- Vertical coordination in actions established patternse.g. increased regulation from the top level Pattern of flow of authority (by institutions) does not change. Mainly uni-directional

Double loop

Triple loop

Increased informal knowledge exchange between levels

Formalized participation of actors at different levels

Informal coordination groups to improve exchange in planning processes established

Established practices of knowledge exchange across levels More polycentric structures and balance between bottom-up and top-down approaches

Source: Pahl-Wostl 2009: 360

Collective learning processes influence the ways actors interact in governance systems. Modes of governance can be hierarchic like bureaucracies or non-hierarchic like markets or networks (cf. Mayntz 2004; Pahl-Wostl 2009; Börzel 2010). Within this conceptual framework diversity in governance modes indicates higher levels of collective learning (cf. Table 5). Table 5: Changes in Governance Modes in Governance Systems Governance Mode

Single loop

Double loop

Triple loop

No change in the relative dominance of governance types

Other than dominant governance types start to become more visible and dominant governance type called into question (e.g. discussion of market based instruments if absent before, introduction of participatory approaches, emergence of bottom-up participatory processes, argument about dominance of one type-bureaucratic hierarchies or privatization)

New governance types implemented, established governance types substantially changed More diverse governance structures- less dominance of one type Learning networks challenging dominating structural assumptions become effectively connected to and influence established policy arenas

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Improvement of performance within established governance modes

Source: Pahl-Wostl 2009: 360

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Besides changes in the major components of governance systems, it is also important to consider how uncertainty is treated within environmental governance systems in order to draw conclusions on the developments in the treatment of risk. High levels of learning are achieved when a governance system accepts uncertainty and starts managing risks in a more flexible manner (Table 6). Table 6: Changing Concepts of Uncertainty Uncertainty

Single loop

Double loop

Triple loop

Uncertainty used to justify non-action

Uncertainty accepted and perceived as opportunity in processes of negotiations and reframing Existence of different perspective and world views explicitly acknowledged

Uncertainty discourse emphasizes different perspectives and world views

Activities to reduce uncertainties. Reliance on science to find the truth/ a solution Discourse focuses on technical approaches to deal[…] with uncertainty with [the] goal to improve predictive capabilities

Established approaches to managing uncertainty and risks are called into question

New approaches to manage uncertainty (e.g. participatory scenario development) and risk (e.g. risk dialogues, robust action) are implemented with corresponding efforts to change structural constraints Conscious decisiontaking under (irreducible) uncertainty with the prospect of adapting the measures when necessary

Source: Pahl-Wostl 2009: 360

Single-loop learning is rather reactive and therefore less suitable for anticipatory adaptation to non-linear stressors like climate change-related natural hazards (cf. Duit and Galaz 2008). Still, single-loop learning is an important prerequisite in order to improve towards higher learning levels (Pahl-Wostl 2009: 359). Within the present study, multiple-loop Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

learning is considered to be the most suitable in order to meet the challenges imposed by climate change-related natural disasters. Single-loop learning is regarded rather critically, since it does not change the ways a system operates even if it experienced frequent failures in the past. Parallel to collective learning processes in resource governance systems multiple other processes take place within the society as a whole. Processes of socio-economic development and technological advancement are drivers of change in every society and therefore

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have to be considered in this analysis. However, they need to be distinguished from each other in relation to collective learning processes. Collective learning and socio-economic development are strongly interlinked, since learning can be either prerequisite or outcome of this process (cf. Cimoli and Dosi 1994). It is therefore considered an interfering variable within the present study. In contrast, the use of advanced technologies is only considered a result of collective learning processes in the sense that a system decides to develop or introduce new technologies. The introduction of new regulative river embankments, for instance, demands the reconsideration of old technologies like earthen embankments without regulative capacity (example derived from Wester and Bron 1998). Therefore technological advancement is not regarded as interfering variable but also as a product of successful collective learning. The criteria summarized in the tables above will be applied to the two case studies based on a literature research. In order to analyze learning as a process, in both examples flood events, which had major impacts on learning processes will be considered. These flood events will be analyzed with regard to how the main five features of governance regimes have changed in the course of time. The two case studies will be compared diachronically so the processes of learning can be followed in each case study in a more consistent manner. Finally both learning processes will be compared and conclusions will be drawn how they influenced the vulnerability of each country. Major source of information within this framework is a literature research that was conducted in printed literature via the Gemeinsamer Bibliotheksverbund (GBV) catalogue. Another major sources of information are internet resources like online journals on the online pages of Springer, ScienceDirect, Elsevier, SAGE Publications or Wiley Online Library; online pages of organizations like the IPCC, UNISDR, UNDP, OECD, World Bank, UNEP, WHO or the FAO; online pages of various institutes and research projects like the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, the Stockholm Resilience Centre, PreventionWeb, ReliefWeb, Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre or the SonderforschungCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

bereich 700 of the Freie Universität Berlin; and finally online pages of NGOs working in the field of disaster relief in Asia like ActionAid, British Red Cross and The Red Crescent. A partial review of laws and policies was undertaken in order to achieve a complete picture of the developments in both case studies. Furthermore, databases like the International Disaster Database and the Human Development Index have been used.

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In order to assure a balance in research results a set of keywords was used in each stage of the analysis (cf. Table 7). These keywords derive from a previous sample research and got adjusted permanently during the research process. Table 7: Major Keywords Categorized by Stage of Research Theorizing

complex adaptive systems, systems theory, governance without government, governance, developing countries; theory; environmental governance; complexity

Conceptualizing

adaptation, adaptive capacity, adaptive governance, social learning, societal learning, uncertainty, vulnerability, resilience, disaster risk management, disaster risk reduction, collective learning, adaptive co-management, risk

Case Studies

flood hazard, governance, policy, flood management, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Asia, cooperation, vertical coordination, NGOs, legal framework

Source: Author’s design

The basic structure of the present study is oriented to a scheme deriving from of the concept of social vulnerability, namely the Pressure and Release Model (PAR) by Blaiki et al. (1994). This model composes out of the vulnerability of a system caused by socioeconomic pressure and its exposure to an external hazard. The PAR is especially eligible because it regards a hazard as a result out of both the system itself and the actual hazard. Furthermore, the process of adaptation that can be regarded as a continuation of the PAR will be considered. Learning processes, which are the crucial subject to study in this study, are assigned within the process of adaptation within the concept of adaptive capacity. Hence, the basic structure of this study composes out of the governance regime, the actual hazard and their interaction in the form of adaptation.

1.4

Case Study Selection

In order to test the theoretical framework and to gain further knowledge about how collecCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

tive learning structures and processes influence vulnerability, two empirical case studies will be compared. Beforehand, the choice of scenario will be laid open in greater detail in order to explain why developing countries and floods have been chosen in order to address the issue of adaptation to global climate change.

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1.4.1 Why Studying Floods in Developing Countries? The largest proportion of people that are affected by natural disasters lives in developing countries (UNFCCC 2007: 5-6). It is therefore of great importance to identify the challenges imposed by natural disasters to developing countries, especially the poorest ones. In order to prioritize countries according to their vulnerability to climate change, studies have been conducted that concentrate on predictive indicators of vulnerability mostly to natural disasters (cf. Blaikie 1994; Adger et al. 2004; Brooks et al. 2005). Indicators identified in these studies match with many indicators of common economical and social development (e.g. Adger et al. 2004: 92) meaning that developing countries, if compared to industrialized countries indicate higher levels of vulnerability. It is important to notice though, that large-n country comparisons on determinants of vulnerability among developing countries are rare in the current literature and therefore it is difficult to draw conclusions on what factors explain the differences among developing countries. Furthermore, role models like the Cuban hurricane disaster management17 compared to that of the USA in 2005 demonstrate that the degree of development does not always correlate positive to the levels of vulnerability (cf. Thompson and Gaviria 2004). In summary, research in disaster management tends to be biased towards a Western Universalism18 that fades out the particular circumstances in other countries, stating that being the way developing countries are makes them what they are. The present analysis will therefore focus on developing countries and their special challenges of adaptation. Hydrological hazards account for more than half of all disaster occurrences on average in the past decade and in 2010 for 87 per cent of all disaster victims world-wide (Guha-Sapir et al. 2011: 22). Therefore, floods are particularly in the field of interest for further investigation. The present study exclusively analyzes flood events as examples of natural hazards also because they are very convenient to explain how complex governance systems in the field of disaster management function. The advantage of analyzing floods is that they require involvement at multiple levels in order to be managed successfully (cf. Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Pahl-Wostl et al. 2007: 10) and therefore can make adaptation and collective learning more likely to occur. Also, in environments with multiple stakeholders collective learning is 17

18

The Cuban government developed a disaster management plan, which proofed to be very successful even when facing high magnitudes of storm with only minor human losses and a fast recovery period (cf. Thompson and Gaviria 2004). In contrast, the great difficulties experienced by the USA in the Hurricane season of 2005 indicated that much more needs to be done in order to manage risk more effectively (BBC News Online 20.10.2005, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4360102.stm). This term was used by Samuel P. Huntington in his work “Clash of Civilizations” (Ibid. 1996, 138) and defines here as a normative point of view that classifies a certain set of values attributed to a number of industrialized countries as being the most desirable world-wide.

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more likely to evolve due to the influence of diverse information sources (cf. Haas 2004: 7). The selection of the basic scenario in this analysis, namely extreme flood events in developing countries, was therefore done in accordance to conceptual and practical criteria. Climate change, even though it is a key issue within the scope of this study, will be addressed indirectly through the extreme weather event of flooding. It is therefore acknowledged that efforts have been recently made to address climate change risk reduction as a holistic concept like in UNDP’s National Adaptation Programme of Action. However, concentrating exclusively on policy on climate change adaptation would fade out the previous efforts, which have been made within the field of management of single hazards.

1.4.2 Comparative Method and Case-Studies In order to illustrate differences in collective learning patterns among countries and explain how these differences have an effect on their vulnerability to flood hazards, the present study uses comparative method. This comparison is oriented to Mill’s Design of Difference (Mill 2009 [1872]), where one phenomenon y is tested in two cases that share similar features x1 and x2 excepting for one x3 (Table 8). This particular circumstance exists in case one while it is missing in the second case. If phenomenon y occurs in case one and does not occur (y0) in case two, this might be an indicator for a certain degree of correlation between y and x3. Table 8: Mill’s Design of Difference Case 1. Case 2.:

x1, x2, x3

Æ

y

The absence of x3 is very likely to cause the

x1, x2

Æ

y0

absence of y (y0).

Source: Author’s design deduced from Mill 2009 [1872])

The present comparison, however, is not a clear-cut example of the Most Similar Case Design because the phenomenon y cannot completely be absent in the present analysis. WithCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

in this design the phenomenon y equals a country’s vulnerability to floods. The absence of vulnerability to floods would imply that a society does not experience floods since a hundred percent resilience is hardly achievable. But societies without any exposure to floods are not considered within this framework. Hence, y here is considered a gradual phenomenon that cannot be completely absent, that is to say vulnerability is in first case high and in the second one lower. The flexible factor in this design (x3) shall be the presence and quality of collective learning processes that is expressed in the learning layers framework de28

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veloped by Pahl-Wostl (2009). Similarly to phenomenon y, x3 is expected to be not totally absent but weaker19 in states with high relative vulnerability. Vulnerability is measured and weighted under the main aspect of human physical security. Major measurement variable is therefore called relative vulnerability (UNDP 2004). This variable consists of the numbers of deaths directly caused by a specific hazard in relation to the numbers of people, who have been affected by that particular hazard. It therefore an outcome- oriented variable, which indicates how successful a country is adapting to this particular hazard. The first case study was chosen by taking an extreme case of a flood-prone developing country (cf. George and Bennett 2005; Gerring 2009). It is thereby suggested that if the underlying approach of this study and the connected assumptions of learning are valid, collective learning processes are very likely to evolve in this case and should therefore be detectable. South Asia was chosen as a focus area, since this region inhabits the countries with largest populations that are exposed to flood in relation to their total population world-wide (UNDP 2004: 40-41). Floods are very typical phenomena in South Asia due to its very large and dispersed river systems that cross many borders in this region (Mirza et al. 2003). India and Bangladesh are the two countries experiencing exceptionally high levels of physical exposure to floods (Graph 1) within this region. For the present investigation Bangladesh was chosen as the most convenient case study, since it indicates the highest rate of physical exposure to floods per capita within the region while indicating low levels of relative vulnerability compared to other countries in the region (cf. Graph 1). Taking Bangladesh as point of reference, another country in the South Asian region with comparably high relative vulnerability needed to be identified. It is necessary to look for a second case within the same region since the geographical and cultural background of the two cases needs to be similar for these are two determinants deciding the nature of the flood hazard and how a society responded to them in absence of a central authority. This in turn ensures that the two examples have a common starting point from where they comCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

menced their development up to today. Furthermore, the two countries need to be similar in the interfering variables that have been identified by the UNDP`s Disaster Risk Index Project as common determinants of vulnerability to floods namely the GDP per capita, population density and physical exposure (UNDP 2004: 3). In addition the project suggests that high levels of corruption are an indicator of high levels of vulnerability. Socio-

19

Weaker therefore means learning is taking place at lower learning levels after Pahl-Wostl’s (2009) Model.

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economic development is another very important variable to consider within the analysis of learning processes in disaster risk management (cf. Adger et al. 2004). Higher levels of development are thereafter linked to lower levels of vulnerability.

Average Physical Exposure (millions)

120

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

100 80 60 40 20 0

Relative Vulnerability

Graph 1: Physical Exposure and Relative Vulnerability to Floods in South Asia20

Physical Exposure (per year on average) Relative Vulnerability (no. fatalities per 1 million exposed) Expon. (Physical Exposure (per year on average)) Expon. (Relative Vulnerability (no. fatalities per 1 million exposed)) Data Source: UNDP 2004, Disaster Risk Index

As second case study Pakistan was chosen for several reasons. Firstly, Pakistan has a considerably high level of relative vulnerability compared to its low level of physical exposure to floods (Graph 1) and therefore applies as counterpart of Bangladesh concerning Mill’s Design of Difference. In terms of geography Bangladesh as well as Pakistan is part of an enormous stream system originating from the Himalayas. Annual flooding caused by snow-melt in spring and monsoon season are a typical phenomena in both countries, whereas ordinary floods have an important economical value for they leave behind fertile soil caused by sediments carried by the rivers (Ahmad et al. 2004: 45). Therefore, the hazard patterns in both countries are very even and like the South Asian Floods of 2007 there Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

are certain flood events affecting both countries at a time. A considerably important similarity between both countries lies in their cultural background that draws back to a shared history. Indigenous disaster management on community level plays an important role in the South Asian region and is supposed to be the

20

All values indicate the annual averages from 1980-2000. Pakistan’s relative vulnerability to floods (22,84) is therefore more than double as high as the Bangladeshi (10,96). Relative vulnerability indicates the number of fatalities per Millions exposed to a specific hazard.

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dominating method from early history (SDMC 2008: Ch.1, 1-2). In British India rulers handed power over local water management to local elites in the provinces of Punjab and Bengal, the future territories of Pakistan and Bangladesh, whereas these structures prevailed even some time after independence (cf. Mustafa 2001: 821; Bildeng et al. 2008: 1; Chatterjee 2010: 133). From 1947 until 1971 Bangladesh was part of Pakistan called East Pakistan. The development of disaster risk strategies in both territories remained very insufficient up to the point where the considerably neglected Province of East Pakistan successfully fought for its independence. This is the starting point where the development of disaster risk management in both territories started to diverge. The three major interfering variables identified by the UNDP (2004) are assumed to have a causal direction as follows: The lower a country’s GDP per capita and local population density in flood affected areas; and the higher a population’s physical exposure the higher is its vulnerability or associated risk (Ibid. 2004: 3). Comparing Bangladesh and Pakistan this trend is not consistent. Whereas both indicate very high levels of population density in flood affected areas (UNDP 2004: 143-45), their GDP per capita and physical exposure differ. Pakistan’s GDP per capita is actually double as high as the one of Bangladesh, which has been a quite consistent trend during the past thirty years (The World Bank 2011a). This should imply that Bangladesh is more vulnerable to flood disasters. In reality though, Bangladesh’s relative vulnerability has been significantly lower than that of Pakistan as indicated before. Furthermore, the Pakistani population experiences significantly lower levels of annual exposure to floods than Bangladesh (UNDP 2004). Again, the causal direction of the indicators does not apply to this country comparison. The corruption levels of both countries are considered to be very high (Bertelsmann Stiftung 2009a, Bertelsmann Stiftung 2009b) the level of vulnerability to floods should therefore be equally affected by this factor. It is assumed here that the indicators of vulnerability to floods identified by the UNDP’s project are rather suitable for large-n country comparison than regional or interstate comparison. Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

In order to assess and compare the level of development of both countries, the Human Development Index (HDI) was taken into consideration. It is a three dimensional tool measuring a variety of indicators in the fields of education, health, and living standard. Currently, Bangladesh and Pakistan are at a similar level of human development taking in ranks 129 and 125 of the country ranking list. This connects to the trend in HDI of both countries of the past thirty years (Graph 2) indicating that the development of the two countries shows great similarities in improvement with a gradual assimilation. According31

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ly, the process of socio-economic development is a controlled variable in the analysis of both countries.

Human Development Index

Graph 2: HDI of Bangladesh and Pakistan by comparison from 1980-2010 0,700 0,600 0,500 0,400 0,300 0,200 0,100 0,000

Bangladesh

Pakistan

Medium Human Development 2010

Data Source: UNDP 2010

According to most factors, which have been identified in the literature and their causal direction, Pakistan should be less vulnerable to floods than Bangladesh. But the relative vulnerability to floods in Pakistan is more than double as high as in Bangladesh21 (UNDP 2004). This indicates that in the case of Bangladesh and Pakistan there must be another factor, which has not been considered yet that plays a vital role. Collective learning patterns are the main suggestion of this study in this concern as it supposes that collective learning processes potentially decrease vulnerability to floods in a country. This case study selection is expected to make the learning processes in the field of flood disaster risk management visible and comparable and separate it from other influences that might be causes

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of change in the field.

21

From 1980 until 2000 in Bangladesh on average in every one million people affected by floods about 11 people died. In comparison in Pakistan it was about 23 people dying per one million affected (UNDP 2004: 144-46).

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2

Bangladesh - Learning How to Life with Extreme Floods

Bangladesh is one of the poorest and most disaster-prone countries in the world with an extremely high population density. As a result, it has comparably high numbers of people affected by disasters each year. Within media Bangladesh is often referred to as the most vulnerable country to natural disasters and climate change world-wide. The underlying measurement of vulnerability behind this statement is not always clarified and often the assessment of vulnerability does not differentiate between different types of hazards. Still, it is important to differentiate and relativize such statements because, as indicated before, vulnerability is measured through diverging scales. Major reoccurring climatologic disasters in Bangladesh are floods, droughts, and cyclones whereas cyclones are the most destructive natural force in Bangladesh in terms of human losses. From 1980-2000 cyclones accounted for more than 7.450 annual deaths in Bangladesh compared to more than 450 annual deaths due to floods (UNDP 2004: Table 4 and 5). Even though there are severe problems in the cyclone risk management, major improvements have been made regarding early warning procedures (Paul 2009: 289-90). Drought and flood management, in turn, draw back to a comparably more successful history over the past thirty years. Disasters as a result of droughts have been successfully tackled by a combination of programs and legislature, which aimed on food security. The Famine Codes of 1880 introduced by the British colonialists are an important example in this respect (Bildeng et al. 2008: 14). The governance of flood management lies the centre of focus of this chapter for this case study is assumed to lay open characteristics of collective learning.

2.1

Parameters of Flood and Disaster Management

2.1.1 Political Transition and the Governance of Flood Management Within the four decades after its independence from Pakistan, Bangladesh experienced Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

various shifts in governance regime switching between civilian and military rule three times (Bertelsmann Stiftung 2009a: 2). The latest shift from democratic rule to a military caretaker government in 2007 was in large part a result of deep cleavages that have been lasting ever since 1990 between the two major parties the Awami League and the Bangladesh National Party (International Crisis Group 2008: 6). Political instability and uncertainty combined with very high levels of corruption has for a long time been the course rather than the exception in Bangladesh (Bertelsmann Stiftung 2009a: 4). Currently, demo33

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cratic rule was re-established with the elections of December 2008 but the electoral reforms made by the provisional military government were not able to resolve the cleavages so that further conflicts can be expected (Eicher et al. 2010: 101-2). Noticeable about the political transition of Bangladesh is what Blair refers to as a developmental paradox (2010: 110). Major characteristic of this paradox is that despite alarming results in governance indicators 22 like corruption, stability, and accountability Bangladesh has made a remarkable improvement within its social and economical development (cf. Ibid 2010; Bertelsmann Stiftung 2009a). According to Blair some of the relative success in Bangladesh’s past is due to the vital role of NGOs in the governance process, which speaks in favor of the notion that the state cannot be regarded as the only actor in the political arena (also cf. Roy 2006: 24). Governance as opposed to governing is therefore a vital approach to explain the transition of this nation to a greater extend. The governance indicators used by the World Bank tend to presuppose that democratic governance is the prerequisite of a favorable development (Kauffmann and Kraay 2007: 7). In contrast, the socio-economic improvement of Bangladesh gives reason to believe that democratic rule does not seem to be the cause of development in this case. Nevertheless, in international comparison Bangladesh still lags behind in many sectors of its development.23 Though the changing regimes in Bangladesh varied significantly in elites and their economic policy (cf. Bertelsmann Stiftung 2009a) they draw back to a quite consistent trend in their governance of flood management. Therefore, flood management is an exception in the political tradition of Bangladesh, since virtually every political leader completely replaced the staff of its predecessor in order to remain in power (cf. Blair 2010: 111). The general trend of gradual decentralization in the governance of disaster and flood management from 1988 until today is one example for the relative continuity in this field as this chapter reveals.

2.1.2 Complexity of Flood Disasters and Vulnerability Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Bangladesh is located in one of the world’s biggest river deltas at the mouth of three major rivers: the Brahmaputra, the Ganges24, and the Meghna that flow into the Bay of Bengal. This very unique geographic position is “both a blessing- through soil fertilization and the

22 23

24

Here referred to the governance indicators as considered by the World Bank. The most significant indicator thereof is the Human Development Index whereas Bangladesh could only improve by 3 ranks between 1980 and 2010 to rank 129 out of 169 countries (UNDP 2010). These two rivers are known as the Jamuna and Padma in Bangladesh (del Ninno et al. 2001, 2).

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provision of breeding grounds for fish- and a curse- through displacement, destruction of houses, and sometimes loss of life.” (Royal Haskoning 2003: 1). Seasonal floods have always been an advantage to the agricultural sector of Bangladesh since they leave behind fertile silt in the floodplains (Del Ninno et al., 2001: 3). This in turn creates a high soil quality in the flooded areas while it is also providing irrigation for rice, which is the principal agricultural product of the Bangladeshi economy (Royal Haskoning 2003: 11). Sufficient irrigation combined with fertile soil allows farmers within the floodplains to get up to three rice harvests annually (Royal Haskoning 2003: 11). The choice of rice varieties and the further reliance on fishery indicate that the Bangladeshi society adapted to frequently occurring floods (Keefer 2009: 5). Agriculture remains a crucial sector in Bangladesh accounting for about 19 percent of its GDP in 2009 compared to 32 percent of the GDP in 1981 (The World Bank 2011b). Furthermore, 45 percent of all households derived an income from crop production in 2008 (Paci and Marcin 2008: 59). Agriculture in general and crop production in particular can therefore be regarded as the backbone of the Bangladeshi people that live primarily in rural areas. Regular floods are therefore of a very high importance for the entire society in order to maintain food security and to ensure major a source of income. Hence, the equilibrium in a social-ecological system is very fragile in a flood prone area that is inhabited by a mainly rural society that heavily relies on agriculture. Its unique geographic location causes four different types of flooding in Bangladesh. River floods are the most common type of floods that is characterized by its relatively slow development, long duration and large expansion (Wester and Bron 1998: 54). Rainfall floods and flash floods both generate from excessive rainfalls causing fast rising river levels and suddenonset water movements in small areas (World Bank 1990: 36). These types cause very much destruction in short time spans. Lastly, tidal floods cause salt water intrusion, which supports shrimp farmers but harms crops (Royal Haskoning 2003: 33). Annually about 30 percent of the total Bangladeshi territory is inundated by flooding (Beck 2005, 4). In times Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

of intense flooding though this number can rise up to 67 percent for a limited time span like in the 1998 floods (del Ninno et al. 2001: Summary xv). The multiple sources of flooding make it impossible to build up a system of full flood control in Bangladesh (Azam 1965: 75-77; Custers 1993: 1501-2). Large-scale embankments25 might for example pro-

25

Defined as “A wall or ridge of earth that serves to protect an area from flooding or to carry a road or highway over low ground. Boards placed in slots or grooves in the pier walls of regulators or sluices to

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tect from river floods but would aggravate damage from rainfall and flash floods where water is getting trapped behind embankments (Wester and Bron 1998: 1). Furthermore, they would interrupt the agricultural practices of the rural population and therefore also affect cultural life (cf. Keefer 2009: 5). It is getting apparent that this social-ecological system tends to be very complex because both components shape each other in a non-linear way (cf. Duit and Galaz 2008). A shift of this system for the worse for society has currently been taking place that is supposedly caused by climate change. The monsoon rainfalls changed their patterns and cause, combined with the flat topography of the country and deforestation, more droughts in the North of Bangladesh as well as more extreme floods in the floodplains (Gupta et al. 2005; Royal Haskoning 2003). If prediction made by the IPCC like rising sea level, intensified glacier melting in spring, and intensifying rainfalls would indeed occur, all four types of floods would very likely be aggravated since they imply higher amounts of water within small time scales (IPCC 2007: 493). Even though the number of disastrous flood events has been slightly rising from 1980 until 2010 (Annex, Graph 1) and the population increased by around 68 million (DESA 2011) the total numbers of people affected and killed by disastrous flood events has been declining (Annex, Graph 2 and 3). When considering these trends over the past thirty years, Bangladesh appears to be able to manage the current changes caused by global warming at least with regard to a minimal physical protection that this paper concentrates on.

2.2

Learning Processes in the Governance of Flood Management before 1988 until Recently

2.2.1 Development Prior to1988 In order to trace back the development that took place in Bangladesh’s governance of flood and disaster management, this section lays open the initial stage of this field prior to the

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floods of 1987 and 1988. Within this section as well as the entire following sub-sections the scheme of Pahl-Wostl’s analytical framework will be used26. It is to be noticed, that within this time span Bangladesh experienced two major political shifts from the British colony of Bengal to the Province of East Pakistan to the independent state in 1971. While

26

close the vents for maintenance purposes or for water retention.” (Wester and Bron 1998, Front Matter, Glossary). The categories will be treated in this order: Institutions (including all four categories), Uncertainty, Actor network, Multi-level interactions, and Governance mode.

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the political shifts were significant, changes in flood management did not occur simultaneously.

Institutions The legal framework of governance of flood and disaster management differs a lot among countries and among different time spans in a country. Whereas countries like Cuba today follow comprehensive disaster management strategy with embedded laws, policies and codes (Thompson and Gaviria 2004: 44), others have a more fragmented legal framework that lack coordination capacities. Bangladesh before 1989 is an example of the latter model concerning its governance of flood and disaster management as this chapter aims to lay open. For flood management in Bangladesh is a very complex task it requires laws and policies in many different areas the most important ones being flood mitigation in river management and disaster management. In the period before 1988 regulations on river engineering, land and property rights and compensation made up the first relevant legal framework concerning flood mitigation. A second body of formal regulations that was indirectly related to flood management was concerned with the actor network and decision-making structure in general. 27 Other relevant fields were financial, agricultural and environmental regulations that will not be discussed in greater detail here. The necessity of disaster and therefore also flood management has already been recognized in the colonial period on the territory of Bangladesh (cf. Bildeng et al 2008: 14) that was known back then as East Bengal. During the colonial stage especially the Northern Indian Canal and Drainage Act of 187328 and the Bengal Irrigation Act of 187629 are important legal instruments declaring principles of division of power over water resources30 between the state and private persons (cf. Faruqee and Choudhry 1996: 19). The ownership relationship of the state and private stakeholders was further updated in the De-

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velopment Act of 193531 (British India, Act No. XVI of 1935: Section 28-38), where the

27

28 29

30 31

Due to the fragmentation of the legal framework at that time, a choice of suitable laws and regulations that are significant for flood management had to be made. The applied selection here orients to the analyses of Royal Haskoning (2003) and Faruqee and Choudhry (1996) for these include a thorough analysis of the entire sector for the period of concern in their works. British India, Act No.VIII of 1873. British India, Bengal, Act No. III of 1876, English translation available at http://bdlaws.minlaw.gov.bd/print_sections_all.php?id=35 (accessed 12.05.2011). This also includes the installation of flood protection devices like embankments. British India, Act No. XVI of 1935, English translation available at http://bdlaws.minlaw.gov.bd/print_sections_all.php?id=167 (accessed 13.05.2011).

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problems of illegal destruction of embankments (Ibid.: Section 31, 32 (4)) and compensa.

tion in the case of government intervention in the river system (Ibid.: Section 33- 38) are issued. Additionally, the Registration Act, 190832 firstly regulated private land property and procedures of contracting (Faruqee and Choudhry 1996: 20), which was an important step towards the transparent division of land in the floodplains creating a base for settling ownership disputes. In the following period, in what is then known as East Pakistan, property rights on building grounds are further specified in the State Acquisition and Tenancy Act of 1951 that makes appropriation of private land possible in order to build flood protection devices for instance. 33 This Act also ended the dominance of the ruling local elites, the zamindars34, by taking away their rent receiving rights and transferring them to the government (Chadwick and Datta 2000: 16). Water resources from then on were no longer under private ruling of the elites. The Embankment and Drainage Act of 195235 was the first comprehensive body of law giving the government defined powers to take over technical water control devices and parts of the public water regulation system. Furthermore, this act regulates the construction and operation of water regulating plants (Royal Haskoning 2003: 56). After independence most of the regulations mentioned here were taken over in the new legislation with sole replacements of terms.36 The second body of regulations has been a very important step towards the establishment, legal recognition and facilitation of interest groups concerned with flood protection, drainage, and other relevant subjects. 37 The Bengal Cooperative Societies Act of 191238 and its successor in 194039 are important cornerstones for the establishment of cooperative societies and later on NGOs in the field of flood protection. After independence, the previous Acts were advanced through the Cooperative Societies Ordinance of 198540 32 33

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34

35

36 37

38 39 40

British India, Act No. XVI of 1908. East Pakistan, The State Acquisition and Tenancy Act (also known as the East Pakistan Estate Acquisition Act), East Bengal Act No. XXVIII of 1951, English translation available at http://bdlaws.minlaw.gov.bd/print_sections_all.php?id=241 (accessed 12.05.2011). Zamindars are known as feudal landlords throughout the literature on water and flood management in Bangladesh (eg. Royal Haskoning 2003; Wester and Bron 1998; Chadwick and Datta 2000). East Pakistan, East Bengal Act No. I of 1953, English translation available at http://bdlaws.minlaw.gov.bd/print_sections_all.php?id=253 (accessed 12.05.2011). The amendments and replacements can be found in the footnotes of each document. Tepper refers to this as the Cooperative Movement during colonial period and East Pakistan. Characteristic for this movement were cooperative societies of different kinds (majorly providing easier access to loans at the rural level) that were wide-spread and improved the food and loan accessibility significantly (cf. Ibid. 1966, 25-42). British India, Bengal, Act No. II of 1912. Act as described by Royal Haskoning (2003, 56). GoB, Ordinance No. I of 1985

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and the Cooperative Societies Rules of 1987. Furthermore, the functions of local governments in flood control were regulated in the Local Government (Union Parishads) Ordinance of 198341. The formal legal framework of flood management before 1988 therefore provided a first participatory base and included elements of decentralization. In sum, the legal framework of flood management before 1988 is much dispersed and at some points even conflicting (cf. Faruqee and Choudhry 1996: 18). Water resource management and therefore flood management is largely concentrated on a few very sectororiented policies and laws that were not harmonized. Disaster Management is neither a defined objective nor it is particularly mentioned in any legal document included in this section. Even if there have been first steps taken towards developing a legal body concerned with water management, the changes within this framework are best to be described as adaptation rather than actual learning processes. Flood control policy during the era of British India until 1955 “is characterized by a reactive rather than pre-emptive [approach]” (Cook 2010: 752). Within the following stage, after 1955, that Cook (2010) refers to as the engineering period, first efforts were made by decision makers to change the prevailing policy. The first national plan, which can be assigned to the engineering period, was the International Engineering Company Master Plan (IECO) of 1964. It had a strong focus on flood protection but also set priorities towards agricultural development. The IECO is mainly characterized by its large-scale flood control projects and its objective of achieving full flood control (cf. Wester and Bron 1998; Royal Haskoning 2003; Cook 2010). As a follow-up of the IECO the National Water Plan42 was introduced in 1986. It supported the further spread of flood controlled areas throughout the country, while furthermore emphasizing the paradigm of full flood control (World Bank 1990: 50). Due to its infeasibility of the objective of achieving full flood control in Bangladesh, the Master Plan of 1986 as well as its successor of 1991 was not approved by the GoB (Royal Haskoning 2003: 23). In contrast, it was taken as an orientation for investment for mainly external donors (Chadwick and Datta 2000: 3) and therefore still Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

had influences on the governance of flood and disaster management. Parallel to the engineering strategy, a second strategy was practiced that advocated food security through irrigation, fertilization and new varieties of rice43. This practice was introduced mainly by donors and tolerated but not supported by the GoB (Sultana et al. 41

42 43

GoB, Ordinance No. LI of 1983, English translation available at http://bdlaws.minlaw.gov.bd/print_sections_all.php?id=652 (accessed 13.05.2011). Phase I of the National Water Plan was conducted in 1986 whereas Phase II took place in 1991. Also called the “Green Revolution“ of Bangladesh.

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2010: 342). Discourse about disaster and flood management in this period mainly took place among expert groups, whereas the discussions rather emerged around technical matters rather than holistic approaches (Custers 1993: 1502). Regarding flood disaster management the GoB concentrated on disaster relief while largely neglecting preparation measures (Beck 2005: 7). Until 1988 the prevailing paradigm in the circle of decision-makers and engineers was full flood control through large and small-scale flood protection and irrigation projects. Furthermore, private initiatives or participation was not considered within these policy frameworks (cf. Sultana et al. 2008: 361). The shift from a reactive to a pre-emptive approach in flood management indicates that key actors have reconsidered the importance and context of flood management. This trend has been manifested in a number of policies, even if these did not lead to the desired outcomes of full flood protection. In flood disaster management there has not been any visible accomplishment. The overall changes in legislature in this stage have been moderately. Points of view changed and so did practices. In this sense, learning was part of the described processes and according to the criteria of Pahl-Wostl (2009) double and triple-loop learning were been taken place in general, regulative institutions. Still, the evaluation of regulative institutions needs to be relativized considering it was not possible in this phase to change existing policy or laws, since there was none before. This was not the case for cultural-cognitive institutions where single-loop learning patterns prevailed since discourse remained in the technological field, whilst within this context alternative solutions were proposed.

Uncertainty As demonstrated in section 2.1.2 flood management is a very complex matter in Bangladesh that creates high levels of uncertainty for the affected population, decision-makers and engineers equally. Major attempts in order to deal with this high uncertainty before 1988 were the UN Krug Mission of 1956-57 and the Land and Water Resources Sector Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Study of 1972. As a reaction to the floods in 1954 and 1955 the United Nations started its Krug Mission that aimed to give recommendations to improve the water resources management in what was then East Pakistan. In the final report44 the improvement of agriculture was recognized as a major objective and full flood control and irrigation as major means to

44

This report is commonly known as the Krug Mission Report.

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achieve this goal. At the time, technical solutions in the shape of massive embankment systems where regarded as the most convenient solution (cf. Wester and Bron 1998: 3). This approach has been criticized for it was presupposing solutions rather than relying on a thorough investigation (cf. Custers 1993: 1502). Most importantly, as a consequence of these recommendations, the East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (EPWAPDA) were created in 1959 (Chadwick and Datta 2000: 2). Uncertainty rather remained focused on technological issues, while fading out social factors (Sultana et al 2010: 342). Shortly after independence war the World Bank initiated the Land and Water Resources Sector Study. It was based on improved data and first experiences made during the 1960s (World Bank 1990: 48). Recommendations made in the Water and Land Resources Sector Study indicate that a shift from large-scale embankment projects to smaller and quickly achievable flood control and drainage systems has been taking place. Still, the paradigm of full flood control as major objective for improved agriculture remained (cf. Wester and Bron 1998; Chadwick and Datta 2000; Royal Haskoning 2003; Sultana et al. 2010). The GoB never accepted this study since it was still promoting large-scale projects to ensure flood protection. Still, in the following years the water development went through a transition that matched the recommendations of the World Bank study (Wester and Bron 1998: 3). Additionally, major donors invested in-line with the recommendations of this study indicating that external pressure was an important factor for change (Wester and Bron 1998: 3; Chadwick and Datta 2000: 3). The studies as described in advance relied majorly on technical surveys that estimated the flood situation in Bangladesh as a whole rather than on the individual level (Paul 1984: 4). By the end of the engineering period45only a very small number of qualitative studies on the individual level were conducted in Bangladesh. Major point of criticism these studies included, was the major focus of the GoB on technical solutions (e.g. Paul 1984). First means of flood mitigation where undertaken after 1972 with the creation of the Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC). This subdivision of the Water Development Board 46 received the special attention by the WMO and UNDP, which provided technical assistance for flood monitoring (Hossain 2003: 21-22). Thus, the major efforts to respond to uncertainty were taken by the actual governmental agencies and external organizations without relying on any other stakeholders. The 45 46

This expression is used based on Cook (2010) and describes the time between 1955 and 1986. cf. “actor network” of this section.

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scope on full flood management as an ultimate solution reveals that uncertainty is not fully understood within the circles of engineers and government officials back then. Rather than social and ecological topics47 questions on the most proper technologies were focus of the discourse and so “water resources management in Bangladesh became synonymous with flood control, drainage and irrigation.” (Chadwick and Datta 2000: 2). Still, the singleloop learning stage was entered in the prevailing system of water and flood management because within the existing categories engineers were seeking for new solutions based on improved knowledge.

Actor network Before and during the colonial period then so-called zamindars, powerful local landlords with informal power to collect taxes and various other administrative functions, were major initiators in small-scale flood protection through earth walls (Wester and Bron 1998: 46). The British colonial rule took over the prevailing feudal system and this way conserved its traditional structures. Based on this system, some huge rivers were entirely under zamindari rule, while others belonged to the central Indian government. The rule of the zamindars was officially suspended by the beginning of the 1950s (Chadwick and Datta 2000: 16). The networks concerned with flood management were therefore isolated and ruled by single persons and their constituents before 1950. Even though this does not exclude the possibility that a zamindar relied on multiple networks for consultation, it was still up to his interest to decide about strategies or solutions for flood protection. Irrigation Societies were the only interest groups, whose structures gradually developed as a result of the Cooperative Societies Act of 1912 (Tepper 1966: 27). Still their influence on water development remained limited. In 1959 the EPWAPDA was established as a response to the recommendations of the Krug Mission. Its major responsibility was water resources development and the creation of a comprehensive framework for future water development, namely the Master Plan of Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

1964. The EPWAPDA performed all stages of the project cycle from planning to construction (Wester and Bron 1998). As Chadwick at Datta pointed out “Development during this period was strictly sectoral with very little inter-sectoral communication. Instead agencies pursued their own, separate and often conflicting interests.” (Ibid. 2000: 2). The EP-

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With the exception of the studies connected to the National Water Plan 1986-1991 that included fisheries and ecological aspects to some degree. But these outcomes were not considered much by the government (Chadwick and Datta 2000, 4).

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WAPDA is therefore characterized as being dominated by civil engineers seeking for structural solutions and who failed to consider alternatives. Furthermore, no other organizations were established at that time that could counter-weight this one dimensional strategy. Following the independence, in 1972 the EPWAPDA was restructured and renamed to Water Development Board. This agency was a continuation its predecessor, which was dominated by engineers (Cook 2010). Within the same year the Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development and Flood Control was established, which from then on took in a central position in flood management. Apart from the governmental efforts to manage flood disasters, the NGO sector increased its size and activities in disaster relief significantly. The strengthening of NGOs in the flood and disaster management sector was majorly due to the incapability of the newly established government to give relief after a major flood disaster at the time. Parallel to the increase in NGOs, their efforts towards coordinated action in the field grew in the early eighties (cf. Paul 2003). Prior to 1988 the NGO sector was separated from government relief efforts and therefore no networks evolved that included both sectors (Royal Haskoning 2003: 51). However, the rapid expansion and increasing professionalization of NGOs in Bangladesh formed the path for the emergence of networks counter-weighting the engineering approach that dominated the agenda before 1988 (cf. Sultana et al. 2010). First sign of an improved coordination in water resource management between the Ministries was the establishment of the National Water Resources Council (NWRC) in 1983. Until today, it is the highest policy making authority within the water management sector operating on ministry level. The NWRC therefore reports directly to the actual cabinet while giving executive orders to subsequent governmental organizations and departments (Royal Haskoning 2003). Also in 1983 the Master Planning Organization was set up under the Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development and Flood Control. It was primarily involved in the development of the National Water Plan, which was also the main purpose for the creation of this new organization (Chadwick and Datta 2000: 4). Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

The period before 1988 includes the emergence and establishment of what Sultana, Johnson and Thompson refer to as the engineering coalition (2010: 341-42). The core normative belief in this coalition was that humans can control and dominate nature, while food security and improved agriculture were the most desirable objectives. Technology was therefore regarded as the primary solution and was not questioned or weighted out against other measures. At the same time, protecting agricultural areas was prioritized. Within the engineering coalition a change in orientation from large-scale technical solu43

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tions to small-scale solutions was taking place. Small-scale solutions acknowledged that floods are not only caused by nature but also by human influences. The role of the state changed from the provider flood protection and drainage towards the precursor of development in the agricultural sector. Consequently, the water management network at that time started considering small-scale technological solutions (Sultana et al. 2010: 341-42). Collective learning before 1988 went through some important stages from feudal landlords to a more differentiated network. Though this network remained being exclusive, changing roles within the system occurred. Therefore, the learning patterns indicate singleloop learning with tendencies towards higher learning levels.

Multi-level interactions Up to today the Bangladeshi administrative system is divided into five levels: the national-, the division-, the district-, the upazila- and the union level (cf. Luxbacher and Uddin 2011). The division level refers to an administrative region, whereas latter three belong to the local government. The numbers of district levels changed from four to seven from independence up to today. With regard to the local level Huque points out that “It is difficult to present a simple description of the structure of local government in Bangladesh due to the numerous changes that have taken place since the birth of the country in 1971.” (2007: 227). Local governments have a long tradition that go back to the times of British rule. During the era of the first ruling elites, the zamindars, the administration on Bangladeshi territory was inevitably decentralized and isolated due to the difficulties of communication with the central government in Delhi and later in Islamabad (cf. Ibid 2007). The ruling local elite gradually got replaced by officials of the central government, leading to an informal centralization of the state while officially there have been attempts to improve local representation (cf. Ibid. 2007). Huque concludes that the dependence of local leaders on agents in the central government further led to an informal centralization and that this system was able to resist various reforms through means of corruption (2007: 234). Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Centralization was also the main trend in the system of water management after independence until 1988 (Duyne 1998). Whereas governmental representatives and national and foreign engineers were executing decision-making responsibilities (cf. Sultana et al. 2010: 342) local governments were exclusively engaged with the execution of projects through the Local Government Engineering Bureau (Royal Haskoning 2003: 49). This was not in line with the existing legal framework that prescribes local participation in the deci-

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sion-making process concerning water management and project development in this field48. The Joint River Commission (JRC) established in 197249 remains the only attempt of the Bangladeshi government to cooperate on regional level in the water sector during the entire period before 1988. Cooperation in river management for Bangladesh is very essential since an estimated 93 percent of all surface water in Bangladesh originates from out of its borders (Royal Haskoning 2003: 7). Still, the JRC was an isolated attempt that failed to establish binding modes of cooperation (Mirza 2007: 16 referring to Ibid. 2006). Since the local level is neither independent nor considered in any planning phase or decision-making process, multi-level interactions between national and local level were extremely low before 1988 in the water and flood management sector. On regional level there was one visible attempt to cooperate and coordinate, which did not succeed. Only between the international level and national level there was a significant degree of coordination and cooperation in the shape of policy influence, shared projects and generation of knowledge. At that time, especially the World Bank took in an important role in project planning and implementation and even participated in policy formulation (cf. Sultana et al. 2010). Still, in sum it is not possible to detect clear indicators for collective learning considering multi-level interactions before 1988. The national level clearly dominated the sector of water and flood management while isolating the local level and stakeholders. Patterns of regulation tended to be top-down while all subsequent levels were exclusively involved in project execution. Therefore, no patterns of collective learning apply to the regulative interactions observed in the Bangladeshi water sector before 1988.

Governance mode Taking into account the dominant actors and their patterns of interactions in this period, the dominant governance mode in the water and flood management sector is best to be described as a bureaucratic hierarchy. It is therefore mainly characterized by top-down reguCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

lations. The national government and its appointed engineers have been the principal policy-makers in the system (cf. Duyne 1998). Bureaucratic dominance prevailed in the local governments in which before 1970 about 85 percent of all agenda points were brought up by central actors (Huque 2007: 129).

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One important example policy therefore is the Local Government (Union Parishads) Ordinance of 1983, which formally commissions local governments with the duty of flood protection (Section 30 (2) c). together with India

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The governance mode and style tended to be hierarchical before 1988 due to a very rigid traditional elite system that was characterized by corruption, patronage and clienteles. Accordingly, no change in governance mode that would lead to the assumption learning has been taking place was identified during this period of time.

In summary, the initial stage of Bangladesh’s flood management is marked by an intense trial to push back nature by technological means at large part ignoring the human influences on flood risk. Policy was very fragmented and driven by the interests of a small number of elites and engineers without a sustainable perspective. Sectors operated separately, even though there has been an attempt to enhance coordination across sectors. Furthermore, participation by local people or the local level was not facilitated, which resulted in a top-down bureaucratic system of governance. Disaster management in the shape of emergency plans was not introduced and majorly relied upon local indigenous knowledge and action. Everything taken together, no significantly intense collective learning processes were to be recognized prior 1988 excepting for regulative institutions. Despite these limited success in the actual learning performance, there have been three important changes made during this period, which led to an immediate and future base for learning. Firstly, the Cooperative Movement changed the mentality of agricultural entrepreneurs towards an approach of shared risks and opportunities especially in the loan sector but also in coordination in irrigation. This in turn built up basic structures for microcredits that became an important tool for future disaster relief. Secondly, with the creation of the FFWC and its introduction of first methods of early warning a shift away from plain disaster response towards improved information was performed. Though, before 1988 these improved possibilities were not considered by the government they closed knowledge gaps about hydrological movements. Finally, the shift from large to small-scale engineering indicates that a rethinking in the strategy of flood protection has been taking

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place.

2.2.2 Changes after the Floods of 1988 After the floods in August and September of 198850 the World Bank estimated their return period to be 100 years (World Bank 1990). Indeed it was a very severe flood that cost al-

50

These floods were following a series of floods starting in 1977. Another major flood already took place in July 1988 whereas the floods of August and September were the most severe considering numbers of people that were affected and killed as an immediate consequence.

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most 2.400 lives (CRED 2009), inundated about 62 percent of the entire country51 and destroyed an enormous part of crops (Sultana 2010: 340; Royal Haskoning 2003: 23). However, similarly severe floods were to occur only some years later in 1998 and 2004 indicating how difficult it is to make any projections of the severity of floods in Bangladesh. Noticeable about the 1988 floods is that all large-scale investments in FCD systems of the past proofed to be insufficient to mitigate a flood disaster of this scale. An early warning system was not operating at that time since the FFWC was far from being able to inform the population by the time. Though, it was able to forecast the water levels of a total of 10 monitoring stations (Hossain 2003: 22). As a consequence, the flood wave in late August 1988 caused by extreme precipitation came without a central alarm and traditional means of early warning could not prevent the high losses (Hossain 2003; Mirza 2003). The lack of early warning capacities also reflected the overall lack of nonstructural preventive measures in the flood disaster management at that point. The World Bank described the disaster response by the GoB in 1988 as “prompt” and “effective” based on massive investments (Ibid. 1990: 1). The extraordinary aide volume was mainly due to an increased attention to the event by the then military government. It therefore seized the chance to gain popular support in order to avert opposition movements (Sultana et al. 2010: 345). The relief efforts in 1988 therefore had a clearly political dimension, which cannot be counted under collective learning processes since it has only been a temporary change in structures that was not based on improved availability of information. Even though the national government and NGOs worked independently from each other to give flood relief no famine occurred as a result (Del Ninno et al. 2001: 37). In sum, the floods of 1988 were a major backdrop for the engineering coalition, which had to admit that its efforts of the past did not proof to be sufficient in the case of a major flood disaster. Let alone this does not necessarily lead to a change in approaches as the Pakistani case study is going to reveal, but the structures of flood management changed

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significantly as a consequence of this major event.

Institutions Within the legal framework on flood management there has not been any significant change from 1988 to 1998. Neither have there been any changes made in existing laws nor there have been any new laws emerging (cf. Faruqee and Choudhry 1996; Royal Haskon-

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In comparison, seasonal flooding normally takes in about 25 percent of the total territory.

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ing 2003). In contrast, law improvements have been made within water resources management whereas environmental conservation and improved performance in water supply and sewerage were major objects of regulation (Flood Hazard Research Centre 2010). Rather than enforceable laws, which were difficult to establish regarding the political upheaval from military to civil government, changes exclusively took place within the policy realm. As reaction to the massive losses experienced in the floods of 1987 and 1988 the international community recognized the need for advanced flood protection in Bangladesh. The GoB requested the World Bank to coordinate international efforts and they jointly developed the Flood Action Plan (FAP), which commenced in 1990 following a donor conference in London 1989 (World Bank 1990: iii). The FAP carried on with the technological approach that had already been a distinct feature of the period prior 1988 and largescale FCD systems were preferred means. Accordingly, major decision makers did not draw back to discussions and findings made prior 1988 (cf. Custers 1993). The novelty about the FAP was that it formally recognized the inclusion of participatory and ecological issues in the flood management sector. This included the Guidelines for participation and an environmental impact assessment considering fisheries and their particular needs. Overall, planning authorities and decision makers shifted from a fragmented to a comprehensive and participatory approach of flood management whereas participation of vulnerable groups was gradually included in the practice of government agencies (cf. World Bank 1990; Hanchett 1997; Chadwick and Datta 2000; Royal Haskoning 2003; Beck 2005; Cook 2010). During and after the implementation of the FAP, for the first time in the development of water and flood management in Bangladesh, a large-scale public controversy arose. Besides questions, which have been raised about the feasibility of FCDs to prevent flooding and social impacts of these systems, this controversy included critique on the legitimacy in the entire sector (Sultana et al. 2010: 343). With the support of local and international NGOs and donors this controversy led to substantial changes within the existing policy Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

going from plain disaster relief towards actual flood disaster management. The trend towards actual disaster management was also reflected in the faster development of the early warning system that indicated a gradual shift towards non-structural preventive flood management and was mentioned for the first time in the FAP (cf. World Bank 1990; Hossain 2003). A review in planning exercise that was launched as reaction to the external pressure of NGOs, academics and donors was a major driver of change at that time (Chadwick and Datta 2000; Beck 2005; Sultana et al. 2010). 48

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Resulting from the experiences of the FAP, the public pressure and the subsequent review of policy, the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy was approved by the GoB in 1995 and became a major orientation within the flood management sector (Royal Haskoning 2003; Beck 2005). It was the first policy to explicitly include improved participation as a major objective in the flood management sector. Beyond this novelty the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy also recognized that non-structural solutions needed to be considered more and that social and ecologic issues were also concern of the water management sector (Wester and Bron 1998: 59). On the regional level the Ganges Water Treaty of 1996 was agreed upon by the Indian and Bangladeshi government. Considering the problems the two countries are facing because of the water distribution until today, this framework was not sufficient to settle major points of conflict. It therefore remains debatable whether this treaty can be regarded as a serious attempt to cooperate in water management (Chadwick and Datta 2000: 14-15). The floods of 1988 entailed a massive change in the entire water sector and therefore within flood management. For the first time in the development of the sector one can truly refer to the efforts as ‘flood management’ since the FAP and the connected Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy were the first comprehensive frameworks that considered technological, economical, social and ecological factors. Furthermore, shifts in paradigm and controversies were part of the entire process after the 1988 floods. Especially the shift towards a participatory approach that has been implemented gradually after 1997 (Cook 2010) was an important step towards a more favorable environment for collective learning processes (cf. Pahl-Wostl 2009). The various and profound shifts in the system of beliefs that resulted in changes during this period of time lead to the conclusion that tripleloop learning was taking place in the realm of institutions. This conclusion applies to all considered categories of institutions since changes were interconnected in this development stage.

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Uncertainty Immediately after the floods in 1987 and 1988 the GoB commissioned several studies on the flood management sector including a review on the existing policy and measures of flood protection. Also a number of studies in cooperation with external actors were undertaken immediately after the floods withdrew that are known as the preliminary studies of the FAP (World Bank 1990: 1). These studies were majorly concerned with the feasibility

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of large-scale flood protection measures in Bangladesh and alternative solutions to these measures. As pointed out in the Eastern Waters Study: “[…] the report sees great expense, possibly serious environmental risk, and little prospect of effectiveness from quick application of the heaviest engineering solutions […] large storage dams and river embanking […]” (Rogers et al. 1989: xiv). Furthermore, this study concluded that single solutions might not bring the desired results and therefore favored a comprehensive approach to meet the challenges imposed by the difficult flood situation in Bangladesh through non-structural measures (cf. Ibid. 1989). In contrast the Pre-feasibility Study of Flood Control in Bangladesh was seeking for financial and physical prerequisites in order to make large-scale projects feasible (World Bank 1990; Leaf 1997). Both studies had an impact on the FAP, however the conclusions drawn by the second study discussed was considered to a much greater extend at the beginning of the FAP process. The partly very progressive input of the Eastern Water Study and the experience of failure of the existing FCD systems in the flood of 1988 could not achieve a change in the prevailing perception that large-scale structural solutions will reduce uncertainty and encourage growth in the agricultural sector (World Bank 1990: 28). Basically the FAP consisted out of twenty six interrelated studies that also covered areas that were hardly considered in flood management before like agriculture, environmental issues, social aspects and early warning for instance. These areas of concern were dominantly covered by pilot projects indicating that there existed no significant data in these fields. The scope on improving structural measures was by far more established and therefore made up the core components of the FAP (cf. Ibid. 1990). Until 1998 these studies were the most significant ones though it is expected that small-scale surveys and other studies were conducted by NGOs and other organizations. The studies and pilot projects introduced by the FAP generated a vast amount of new Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

knowledge and data in the entire flood management sector from 1990 until 1995 (cf. Royal Haskoning 2003). Though not all recommendations of the studies mentioned above were considered equally in the conceptualization of the FAP the knowledge gained made it possible to open up new arenas for discussion during the FAP process and afterwards. Uncertainty was more widely recognized after the FAP studies, which was also a result of new modes of communication via public channels. Another novelty was that these channels led to a detectable change in behavior of the decision-makers and experts. As a result of 50

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changes in belief systems and behavior the participatory approach entered the arena of water management through public and donor pressure and gradually gained more support among experts and decision-makers. The stage of learning as reflected in the handling of uncertainty is therefore settled between double- and triple-loop learning.

Actor network During the 1990s a new actor network emerged partly because of the general trend of an enormous NGO movement at that time in Bangladesh and partly because of the growing opposition to the planning and decision practices of the engineering coalition especially in connection with the FAP. This new loosely organized network was majorly established by local and foreign NGOs, aide agencies and some academics (Beck 2005; Sultana et al. 2010). Co-operative Societies were gradually replaced by NGOs that had better organizational capacities and therefore carried out more tasks in the community (Royal Haskoning 2003: 52). Sultana, Johnson and Thompson (2010) refer to the new network as the environmental coalition. This network differs from the engineering coalition in many aspects especially in its core belief that humans and nature are interrelated and therefore humans cannot dominate nature. Major focus in policy is therefore non-structural solutions that primarily consider ecological and social impacts of human intervention in the river system and forestry. Therefore, human development by itself was regarded as an important driver of flood risk and was supposed to be considered as such. Structural measures were only regarded as legitimized for the protection of urban areas and infrastructure whereas natural flood mitigation structures such as wetlands were supposed to be preserved (Ibid. 2010: 339-345). It is important to consider that this is only a summary of the disperse interests within this new network and that at that time the degree of coordination was considerably low. Shortly after the floods of 1988 until 1994 the engineering coalition still clearly dominated the agenda-setting as well as planning authority. The Flood Plan Co-Ordination Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Organization was set up in order to coordinate the process of the FAP and therefore was the most influential authority in flood management. Like prior to 1988 this organization was dominated by government officials and Bangladeshi and foreign engineers and held not consultation with any local parties or civil society (Hanchett 1997: 281-82). NGOs were therefore not included in any phase of the actual FAP process and only a minority of donor agencies included in the process advocated for enhanced participation and the interests of the environmental coalition (cf. Beck 2005). In 1993 the engineering coalition sig51

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nalized its willingness to enhance participation of stakeholders and public accountability in the flood management sector with its Guidelines for People’s Participation, which was integrated into the Water and Flood Management Strategy in 1995 (Faruqee and Choudhry 1996; Chadwick and Datta 2000). Besides the emergence of new networks, the role and structure of already established actors in the flood management sector experienced changes. These changes were results of an increasingly broader understanding of water as a resource that had to be managed rather than controlled (cf. Chadwick and Datta 2000). The Master Plan Organization was restructured in 1991 and also renamed as the Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO). This change resulted in a broader set of responsibilities in water management for this governmental organization (Ibid 2000: 4). In the same vein the Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development and Flood Control was renamed to Ministry of Water Resources in 1993 indicating that flood management was put into a wider context (Ibid. 2000: 13). This change was also to be observed in a greater cooperation with other ministries but did not change the overall role of the then Ministry of Water Resources in the context of flood management. Another shift in approaches was to be observed in disaster management. Whereas disaster management before 1988 was aimed at relief work it turned to more holistic framework in disaster management considering preventive measures and further coordination. This shift was expressed in the renaming of the former Ministry of Relief and Rehabilitation to Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief with its main agency being the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) since 1993 (DMB, “Creation of DMB”). The entire actor network was in transition after the floods in 1988. The existing network opened formal channels for participation of a new emerging group, which led to a transformation of the system of beliefs as indicated in the change in institutions. Furthermore, the emergence of the environmental coalition indicates that interests were consolidated and represented even though they were not yet strong enough to challenge the absoCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

lute dominance of the formerly established networks. Disaster management became an increasingly important issue in policy and administration, which became visible in the restructuration on the ministerial level. The changes mentioned here are indicators that at least double-loop learning was taking place considering the actor network involved with flood and water management.

Multi-level interactions 52

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The period from 1988 until 1998 is characterized by the remaining dominance of the national level in flood management through the Water Development Board. The Flood Planning Coordination Organization as an auspice of the Water Development Board continued the tradition of top-down regulation in the water and flood management sector and therefore was accused by different parties for its lack of transparency (Hanchett 1997: 282). Nevertheless there were attempts to include stakeholders and civil society also in a formal manner as this had been one objective of the Water and Flood Management Strategy (Faruqee and Choudhry 1996: 2). The upgrade of the Local Government Engineering Bureau to department status in 1992 and its expansion to around 3.000 employees indicated that the coordination and cooperation with local governmental organizations was of an increasing importance for the central authorities (cf. Fujita 2011). Another indicator for increasing efforts and intensification of top-down regulation is the approval of the Standing Orders on Disaster by the GoB in 1997 that included regulations on the administrative structure during disaster events (Luxbacher and Uddin 2011). In this central emergency plan all levels are included in the execution of relief operations (GoB 1997). Even though there has not been any change in the direction of regulations there was an increase in regulation from the side of the central authority. Since the vertical coordination changed gradually in intensity, according to Pahl-Wostl classification scheme (2009), at best single-loop learning applies to the changes that were to be observed 1988 until 1998.

Governance mode Developments in water and flood management after 1988 until 1998 were mostly driven by the FAP process. Therefore, administrative structures steering this process also made up the prevalent structures in flood management. Decision-making in the FAP process was dominated by a consortium of external donors that were coordinated by the World Bank. Subsequently only Bangladeshi government representatives and engineers were involved Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

in the decision-making process. Stakeholder involvement was provided in the Guidelines for People’s Participation but the actual implementation of these Guidelines was still on hold before 1998. Local communities and NGOs were not included in decision-making in the FAP era. Therefore the FAP process kept on following a strict bureaucratic top-down hierarchy, whereas the Water Development Board had considerable influence at all stages (cf. Hanchett 1997). Accordingly, there has not been any considerable change in dominant

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governance mode and no remarkable attempts to change this situation excepting for a weak shift towards a participatory approach.

The developments in water and flood management after 1988 show remarkable changes in approaches and therefore policy. These can be traced back to the catalyzing effect on policy the 1987 and 1988 floods had (cf. Sultana et al. 2010). Furthermore, the changes in actor constellation indicate that the changes in policy had popular support. The implementation of the new participatory approaches and the reorientation towards more non-structural measures of flood management were gradual and slow, but as the partial success in the management of floods of 1998 showed there had been a real change taking place that did not only exist on paper. Prerequisites for collective learning like the emerging participatory approach and the greater emphasis on environmental issues paved the way for a new policy direction and actor constellation.

2.2.3 Changes after the Floods of 1998 The floods of 1998 are known to be the most severe floods ever recorded on Bangladeshi territory with regard to their expansion and duration. Lasting for about two months, the 1998 floods covered up to two-thirds of the entire country and affected fifteen million people. In contrast “only “ about one thousand people got killed as a direct result of the single flood event (CRED 2009) indicating that disaster planning and flood disaster mitigation was operational. Due to extensive losses in crops a famine as occurred in 1974 was expected to rise but was prevented by a quick intervention with public and private food stocks. International relief was called upon by the Bangladeshi government and was mainly delivered in form of food grains (cf. Del Ninno et al. 2001). Relief assistance was mainly distributed by the local and national government agencies, foreign military forces and local and international NGOs, whereas the degree of coordination between NGOs turned out to be more effective than on the governmental side (Paul 2003; Beck 2005). Early Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

warning experienced technological advancement prior to the floods but an adequate emergency dissemination system in on the grassroots level was still not functional, which led to public criticism (Hossain 2003: 23). After the floods of 1998 it became even more apparent that full flood control was not achievable and the major embankments failed to protect the areas they were supposed to protect especially Dhaka the capital of Bangladesh was affected by flooding. In turn, small-scale irrigation systems combined with extensive research in FCD systems and agri54

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culture like the FAP studies for instance turned out to be a major success in enhancing food security prior to the floods and during the recovery phase (cf. Del Ninno et al. 2001). Furthermore, the importance of non-structural means to protect the Bangladeshi people from starvation after flooding and torrents became apparent. Especially the trade liberalization of the 1990s, micro-credits and the cut in import tariffs in early 1998 resulted in a better domestic food grain supply preventing rice and wheat prices from substantial increase (cf. Ibid 2001). 52 Beyond these measures, groups and individuals developed own ways of coping with disasters like moving to saver places or borrowing important supplies from relatives or neighbors (Beck 2005). The experiences made during and after the floods of 1998 led to further changes in the disaster and flood management by the GoB that had to face a failure of its current course of action.

Institutions Based on the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy of 1995 the World Bank initiated further policy developments in the water and flood management sector. After the floods of 1998 this process led the GoB to review its existing policy on water and flood management resulting in the approval of the National Water Policy (NWPo) in 1999 (Chadwick and Datta 2000). This policy was a major first step in order to translate the knowledge and experience gained throughout the FAP process and its subsequent development processes into one comprehensive document. Key objective of the NWPo was to resolve the “chaotic situation” concerning strategies and coordination in the water resources management of Bangladesh (GoB 1999, Foreword of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina). In fact it is a considerably progressive policy that addresses many of the existing shortfalls in water and flood management like the lack of binding regulations, coordination, decentralization, stakeholder participation and environmental management (cf. GoB 1999). The influence by the environmental coalition with regard to participatory rules and Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

ecological standards is therefore getting apparent. The National Water Management Plan was subordinated to the NWPo. It constituted a compromise between the environmental and the engineering coalition by including flood 52

The policies referred to have not been mentioned within earlier remarks of this paper since they have not been considered in the earlier popular discourse around flood and disaster management. Rather they were originally intended to serve as a common tool of poverty alleviation rather than a recovery strategy after flooding. This became apparent when considering that micro-credits were insufficiently available during and after the floods of 1998 even though the country has a long experience with this tool and a remarkably tight network of institutions within this sector (cf. Beck 2005).

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proofing measures instead of only relying on flood control (Royal Haskoning 2003; Beck 2005). Also the National Water Management Plan was the only hazard-specific policy in Bangladesh. Additional policies have been introduced in coastal flood management, which is an indicator that regional needs have been considered53. Overall there has been a considerably intense pace of change in policy within the water and flood management sector especially after the year 2000. A vast amount of sectoral policies has been created, which identified obstacles like climate change, poverty or rural livelihoods. Still, a lack of implementation is a serious constraint to the existing policy field. The recently drafted Bangladesh Water Act of 2009 is one important attempt to make rules and practices in the water and flood management sector more binding but it has not been approved up to date. After the floods of 1998 major policy issues raised by civil society in the water management sector were related to human development and vulnerability, whereas important arenas they used to put their interests through were courts and the media (cf. Sultana et al. 2010; Cook 2010). Cook also refers to this newly entered stage as the Human Development Period of ideas in flood management (2010: 759). Parallel to the developments in the water and flood management sector the disaster management sector grew as an independent unit especially after 1998. The central policy goal of the GoB is the facilitation of a paradigm shift from disaster response and relief towards risk management (GoB 2008 “Bangladesh Disaster Management Mission, Vision and Objectives”). A vast number of disaster management policies have been formulated until present by different agencies mostly under the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management54. Apart from policies at national level the National Disaster Planning Framework provides for local level emergency and disaster plans (Alam and Siddiqi 2007: 28-29). Significant policies on national level like the revised Standing Orders on Disaster55, the Draft National Disaster Policy or the National Plan for Disaster Management56 share the common goal of enhancing risk management through a comprehensive approach covering disaster preparedness, prevention, mitigation and response. Community-based disaster Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

management became an increasingly important policy instrument in order to improve applicability of projects and legitimacy at all levels (cf. Alam and Siddiqi 2007; GoB 2008; GoB 2010a; GoB 2010b). Private practices like lifting up housing or securing assets have 53

54 55 56

A major example is the Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan of 2005 that has been introduced by the Ministry of Water Resources. It was earlier mentioned as the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, which was renamed in 2003. The actual Standing Orders on Disaster have been revised in 2010. The National Plan for Disaster Management has been approved in 2010.

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been taken up in national policy (GoB 2010a: 11.7.3), which supports the notion that the disaster approach is more human-centered in this new period. Even though a participatory approach has been introduced much earlier, first signs of its actual implementation in the flood management sector were to be detected earliest in 2003 (Royal Haskoning 2003: 61). Still, with the exception of the revised Standing Orders on Disaster most of the other policies have only been approved recently or are still waiting for approval and therefore it is difficult to comment their applicability. The implementation of the Standing Orders on Disaster has been so far been sobering due to problems in horizontal and vertical coordination (cf. Alam and Siddiqi 2007). On grassroots level decisive progress in disaster preparedness has been achieved through projects of local and international NGOs in particular the Bangladesh Rehabilitation Assistance Committee and the Red Crescent Society in cooperation with the GoB (Royal Haskoning 2003: 51). After the rise of an environmental interest group that mainly advocated for natural capacities for flood protection, small-scale interventions in the river system and participation on grassroots level another mainstream evolved after the floods of 1998. The shift away from flood control towards flood proofing indicates that risk management in the flood management sector started focusing more on human behavior and social implications that influence individual flood risk. Hence, after the floods of 1998 the term of flood management in Bangladesh is more adequately used than before, when flood management actually referred to plain flood control. In line with this new orientation the change in approaches in the disaster management sector from response towards risk reduction was included in new policies. Implementation of policies in the flood and risk management sector remains the weak point as it is the case with many policies in developing countries. Achievements have been made through the engagement of civil society that was stronger involved on project scale like under the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme of 2003 (cf. Luxbacher and Uddin 2011). The changes in institutions after the floods of 1998 have been very profound considCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

ering the shift in paradigm and the emerging competition of ideas that was partly result of the integration of civil society in planning practices (cf. Hossain and Islam 2000). Newly introduced policy and regulations are more integrative and prescribe enhanced public consultation at planning levels (GoB 1999; GoB 2001). The new mainstream that has been evolving in the flood management aims on the particular needs of the human being in a holistic way rather than plain concentration on environmental and technological issues. Due to the variety of changes in institutions and new practices it is uneasy to differentiate 57

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between double- and triple-loop learning in this period indicating that both types have been occurring. Most characteristic for triple-loop learning in this period is the change in main-stream by the actual decision-makers that is to be observed in formal policy and planning frameworks. Double-loop learning is majorly to be observed in cultural-cognitive institutions, whereas it is important to consider that the human-centered perspective was not an entirely new idea but it was firstly recognized by more powerful actors.

Uncertainty Together with the changing approach towards managing risk and disasters, the way uncertainty was treated by decision-makers in the flood and disaster management changed. The scope on preventive measures of flood and disaster management is getting apparent in the development of forecasting capacities. After the Flood Forecasting and Warning Project that was part of the FAP the FFWC made further progress on modernizing flood forecasting models and dissemination of warnings among governmental actors, NGOs and the media (Hossain 2003). Shortcomings still prevail in the dissemination of warnings in poor communities. These difficulties have been addressed by the Early Warning System Study, which was undertaken by the GoB, ADB and the Government of the Netherlands. In response, external agencies like USAID developed an early warning structure based on telecommunication that was implemented by a private company 57 . Disaster preparedness therefore gained momentum after the floods of 1998 indicating that uncertainty about flood disasters was intended to be reduced. Knowledge availability and accessibility was amplified especially after 2001 when the WARPO and Water Development Board developed several databases that covered fields like water resources, climate change or ecological resources for instance58. Faster access to information in the water resources sector was therefore another attempt in order to reduce uncertainty about hydrological, ecological and social challenges. Studies in spe-

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cific areas like coasts or special river ecosystems continued, whereas climate change be-

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One major project has been the Bangladesh Community Flood Information System Project implemented by Riverside Technology Incorporated from 2002-2008 (project details available at http://www.riverside.com/home.aspx, accessed 14.07.2011). Information about these databases is available on the homepage of the Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services that is a public trust under the ministry of Water Resources (http://www.cegisbd.com/projects.htm, accessed 18.07.2011).

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came an important mainstream in coastal area studies as well as in human vulnerability assessments59. The social dimension of uncertainty was gaining increasing attention after the floods of 1998. In order to identify and manage the complex linkages between livelihoods, disaster and nature the GoB increasingly relied on participation by groups that have not been consulted before in such intensity. On the occasion of the floods of 2004 the national government under the direction of Prime Minister Zia officially launched a national workshop on flood risk management that included stakeholders from all levels. To meet the challenges of high uncertainty, with the National Workshop on Options for Flood Risk and Damage Reduction in Bangladesh60, an improved method of risk management was implemented. Outcomes and recommendations from this workshop had immediate effects on succeeding policy like the National Plan for Disaster Management (Alam and Siddiqi 2007: 25-27). The Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme constitutes the first centrally organized attempt to develop a holistic scheme of disaster management across all levels and sectors in Bangladesh and is implemented by public and private organizations. Risk reduction is a key component of this framework and is directly included in four out of six outcome areas of the second phase of the project. Risk reduction of climate change hazards is one of these outcome areas indicating that the potential increase of climate change hazards has been recognized and taken up. Characteristic for this new framework of disaster management is its way of dealing with uncertainty through experimental means like pilot projects and studying different forms of new co-ordination between government levels (cf. Luxbacher and Uddin 2011). In the framework of the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme the Climate Change Cell was established, a governmental agency that works on impact assessment of global climate change in Bangladesh and is therefore in charge of long-term risk evaluation. Climate change has gained increasing attention and has already been subject to the national agenda. The National Adaptation Programme of Action was developed in 2005 by Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

the Ministry of Environment and Forest under the auspices of the UNFCCC. This framework contains short- and long-tem objectives of the GoB proposing a detailed implementa59

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Examples therefore are the Impact Assessment of Climate Changes in the Coastal Zone under WARPO and studies executed by Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services on behalf of international organizations or different ministries (http://www.cegisbd.com/projects.htm, accessed 18.07.2011). The National Workshop on Options for Flood Risk and Damage Reduction in Bangladesh took place from 7-9th of September 2004 with more than 900 participants including NGOs, stakeholders, academics and actors from the private sector (Alam and Siddiqi 2007).

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tion plan of future projects concerning policy adjustments, research and micro-level adaptation. Flood proofing measures assign high priority within this planning framework, whereas structural measures are included to a smaller extent. The newly introduced human-oriented approach after the floods of 1998 demanded a reorientation in measures for risk management. The GoB under urgent demand of international organizations responded to this obstacle with widening participation and communication with stakeholders on all levels. Furthermore preventive measures, so called flood proofing measures, like early warning systems were further developed in order to reduce risk. Improved knowledge management was done in order to reduce uncertainties about floods and climate change. Changes in the ways the GoB dealt with uncertainty and risk indicate that all levels of learning up to triple-loop learning were taking place noticing that this phase is not finalized yet. Actor network After the floods of 1998 the dominance of the engineering coalition in water and flood management was formally and informally challenged by an increasing trend towards decentralization and the implementation and formalization of participation of stakeholders, civil society and the private sector. This trend had most importantly been encouraged by international organizations and donors that were advocating for improvements in environmental policy including participation and good governance61. The environmental coalition therewith gained increasing support from the GoB and donors (Sultana et al 2010: 346). This change may have also been brought about through the Bangladesh Water Development Board Act62 of 2000 that profoundly changed the competencies of the Water Development Board, which had been the principal planning and decision-making authority before. The new law transferred meaningful rights from the water sector to local governments and non-profit organizations. Participation was for the first time made mandatory in the planning procedures of the Water Development Board (GoB 2000: No.12 (1)). Fur-

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thermore, under this act the Water Development Board handed over the management of all

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Good governance is often referred to in a strongly normative sense. Whereas definitions within the development literature are often very context-specific good governance complies with the practice of governing a country in a way that benefits as many groups and individuals as possible and allows broad participation in this process. Act No. XXVI of 2000, English translation available at http://www.lexadin.nl/wlg/legis/nofr/oeur/arch/ ban/bwdb_act.pdf (accessed 15.05.2011).

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water projects including FCD systems to beneficiary organizations63. Next to the structural functions like planning and building water infrastructure the Water Board also was assigned to serve a number of non-structural functions (Ibid. 2000: No.12). The composition of the Water Development Board changed from about 18.000 employees in 1990 to approximately 9.000 employees in 2002, whereas about 1.000 staff members were not engineers (Royal Haskoning 2003: 48). Changes under the new law indicate that the networking activities between the two coalitions were increasing and roles of the past have been reconsidered. This joint approach in the water sector replaced the static structures of the FAP era. In disaster management a clear orientation towards joint action of governmental organizations and civil society became apparent. In order to improve coordination and cooperation between governmental and external organizations the NGO Coordination Committee on Disaster Management and the Disaster Management Training and Public Awareness Building Task Force were established that are in charge of coordinating and reviewing NGO activities in the field (Alam and Siddiqi 2007: 18). The two networks that have been acting together but not jointly in the past now coordinate their efforts through new bridging agencies. On international and regional level Bangladesh committed itself to two non-binding statues in recent times64. Even though local capacities have been increasing Bangladesh remains highly dependent on external aid in the water and disaster management sector (Royal Haskoning 2003: 54). It is therefore expected that donor agencies still have great influence on many decisions. Especially the World Bank took in a major role by coordinating donors and financing projects (Sultana et al 2010: 347). The degree of coordination among major actor groups in the water sector and disaster management, namely government agencies and NGOs, was increasing after the floods of 1998. These changes were to be observed in new regulations as well as in practice. Net-

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working agencies built bridges between the governmental and non-governmental sector

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According to the Bangladesh Water Development Board Act all water projects covering an area larger than 10.000 hectares are managed through a committee of beneficiary organizations (GoB 2000, No.1516). The beneficiary organizations are called water management cooperative associations, which have been performing very well in the past according to the ADB in their evaluation of the Small-Scale Water Resources Development Sector Project (ADB, “Evaluation of the Small-Scale Water Resources Development Sector Project in Bangladesh”, http://www.adb.org/Documents/PPERs/BAN/25312-BANPPER.asp (accessed 24.06.2011)). Major statutes are the Hyogo Framework for Action and the SAARC Framework for Action (GoB 2010a, 4.4/4.6).

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indicating that in the actors network double-loop learning was reached. Furthermore, the joint approach in both sectors suggests that the triple-loop learning stage has been entered.

Multi-level interactions As demonstrated in the past section, the Water Development Board Act substantially changed the composition and cooperation of governmental actors across levels and their relation to external actors in water and therefore flood management. Substantial competencies in the water management were transferred from the national Water Development Board to local governments and beneficial organizations. It furthermore prescribed that local policy frameworks are to be developed, which are oriented towards national policies (GoB 2000: No. 8). Participation has been successfully developed on local project scale but in national policy development it failed to go beyond plain consultation rather than full involvement (Gupta et al 2005; Sultana et al. 2008). Even though these and other attempts to develop bottom-up structures in the water sector have been in place they have not been very successful in changing the entire sector (Gupta et al. 2005: 395). Despite the prevailing centralization and low vertical coordination in the overall water sector there exists an important exception. The Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) nowadays is a considerably successful governmental organization in the water management sector that receives lots of support from important external donors (Royal Haskoning 2003; Fujita 2011). Its major tasks are flood protection and flood proofing at local level (GoB 2001: 19). The uniqueness of this department draws from its hierarchical coordination that is carried out on all four levels and furthermore from its decentralized structure. Decentralization reflects in the numbers of employees at district and upazila level compared to staff at higher levels that only accounts for one percent of the overall staff (Fujita 2011: 5). Informal coordination between all levels is well established and therefore quick information flow is possible. Furthermore, informal groups are important pillars of coordination within the LGED. The well established vertical coordination comCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

bined with stakeholder participation and community Empowerment makes the LGED a role model for all other public sector organizations in Bangladesh (Ibid. 2011). Decentralization was also brought about in the disaster management sector by the CDMP. In phase one of this program important steps were undertaken to train local authorities and communities in order to sensitize those groups about risk and vulnerability. Also in the course of the CDMP a mainstreaming framework was introduced by the GoB that includes bottom-up and top-down mechanisms equally in order to mainstream risk reduc62

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tion at all levels (Alam and Siddiqi 2007; UNISDR 2010). Therefore the local level was gradually involved in policy making and planning activities in order to reduce risk by developing a comprehensive disaster preparedness system. With the further development of the LGED and the establishment of the CDMP after the floods of 1998 a first step has been taken towards community oriented policy and practice. Still, this degree of coordination is rather the exception within this sector. The changes in disaster management policy, which have been brought about by the CDMP aim on better coordination at all levels. Since phase two only started recently it is not possible to evaluate the actual implementation. Considering that regulation at national level strongly increased during this time the prerequisites for single-loop learning have been fulfilled. The other developments in the water and disaster management sectors discussed here indicate that likely double-loop learning was reached.

Governance Mode The dominance of bureaucratic structures within water and flood management has been challenged by growing networks, which have been emerging out of the NGO community and local cooperatives (Chadwick and Datta 2000). As noted earlier in this section there have been various signs that bottom-up approaches emerged in the water and flood management sector that are not fully developed and practiced yet but have made remarkable progress in recent time (Hossain and Islam 2000; Gupta et al. 2005). Especially improvements of the existing micro credit system by NGOs have contributed to faster recovery periods after floods including those of 1998. Participatory planning was intensified and became part of policies at all levels. Additionally in disaster management the mainstreaming of risk reduction in the practice of all governmental actors is based on top-down as well as bottom-up mechanisms (Gob 2010a). Private actors have been involved in project implementation but play a considerably less important role in the development of the flood and disaster management sector. Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Considering that no change in the dominance of bureaucracy has been taking place but a slight strengthening of networks, the single-loop learning stage has been entered within this stage of development.

Much of the changes after the floods of 1998 have been brought about in the FAP era already. As Sultana, Johnson and Thompson (2010) pointed out the floods served as a catalyst of formerly evolved approaches as well as an impetus for new directions. The floods of 63

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2004 and 2007 have also been major floods with regard to the numbers of people affected and killed by the floods and their extent. Still, their influence on policy direction and other changes in the governance of flood and disaster management remained weak in comparison to the floods of 1988 and 1998.

2.3

Collective Learning Processes in the Governance of Flood and Disaster Management in Bangladesh

The Governance of flood and disaster management in Bangladesh underwent significant changes from the initial stage until recently. Starting out at the engineering phase where flood management mainly consisted of the aim to protect agriculture from flooding by large-scale technological means the devastating floods of 1988 opened up a window of opportunity for the development of the FAP that had a much more holistic scope on flood disaster. Knowledge generation reached a climax in the FAP era and therefore made it possible to reconsider old concepts and mainstream new concepts like participation and environmental issues in the new policy. The second driver of change during this time period was the emergence of the environmental coalition that started to make discussions about flood management public through media and used the existing judicial framework to make rights enforceable. The development efforts undertaken by NGOs and cooperatives like the micro credit system turned out to be a major success in order to prevent famines and losses of livelihoods after the floods of 1998. The floods of 1998 were a second turning point in the development of flood management whereas disaster management had its real starting point as a separate field of concern. Risk management was reconsidered and pointed towards human security. Accordingly, non-structural measures and community-based risk assessment and participation became major focus of flood and disaster management. Gradually decentralization in water and therefore flood management was included in national policy. Despite, the implementation of the highly set goals within the National Water Policy and National Water ManageCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

ment Plan is still not exercised in the entire sector. Climate change was identified as another obstacle to risk management and incorporated in major policy in disaster and flood management also at the local level. Major achievements of the time period after 1998 have been the strengthening of participation and stakeholder involvement at all levels and phases, the reorganization of organizational structure of the LGED and furthermore the implementation of the CDMP. All of these achievements have been proposed as role models of disaster or flood management 64

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and have even been proposed for developed countries like England (Sultana et al 2008; Luxbacher and Uddin 2011; Fujita 2011). Overall the central government has been a facilitator of change even though bureaucratic structures made it difficult to steer changes. At this point flexible mechanisms of NGOs and the local level were able to compensate these weaknesses. This potential of civil society was gradually included in disaster risk planning and flood risk management by governmental agencies and therefore cooperation, also formalized, grew significantly within the past decade. The flexible framework, which developed gradually through the whole process, has been a crucial base for adaptive governance that enhanced risk management. A key feature of the Bangladeshi development in the water and disaster management sector has been its dependence on external donors. The Bangladeshi government was mostly committed to impulses given from external organizations and agencies, also because it often lacked capacities for implementation. In turn, the LGED is an important contact point to close this existing gap through its relative effectiveness that stems from its organizational structure (Fujita 2011). External actors therefore had significant influence on the policy development, project planning and knowledge generation within the water and disaster management sector in the past fifty years. The major lessons learned in Bangladeshi flood management can be summarized as: i.

“Flood management activities should not be a stand-alone approach but rather an integrated approach in line with [Integrated Water Resources Management].

ii.

Flood management should a combination of both structural and non-structural measures.

iii.

The process of flood management should be a participatory one; especially

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communities should be pro-actively involved. iv.

Flood management activities should be sustainable.

v.

Technical considerations should not preclude socio-economic considerations.

vi.

Flood management should directly contribute to poverty reduction or alleviation in the developing countries.” (Hossain 2005: 4).

The major discourse standing behind these lessons was whether Bangladesh should control or rather learn to live with floods (Royal Haskoning 2003), whereas the most recent approach chooses the way in between these two options. Collective learning has been taking place at many stages of this development. Ever since the initial phase significantly changes that included transitions of a higher order were 65

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to be identified in the development of institutions. A lack of meaningful changes was observed especially in the fields of governance mode and multi-level interactions where at

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times there have been no reconsiderations at all (cf. Table 9).

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3

Pakistan – First Steps towards Change

Natural disasters occur frequently on Pakistani territory and over the past twenty years have taken 4.400 lives annually (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. 2010: 185). This considerably high number of losses majorly results from droughts, floods, earthquakes, landslides and cyclones that are common on Pakistani territory. Most of the disaster related deaths from 1980 until 2000 have been caused by floods. Floods also affect more people in Pakistan than any other natural disaster (UNDP 2004). Besides natural disasters Pakistan has been facing numerous conflicts, inside and outside its territory, that also have consequences for disaster management as a whole.

3.1

Parameters of Flood and Disaster Management

3.1.1 Political Transition and Flood Management Since its independence in 1947 Pakistan has always been a struggle between militant Islamic extremism and democratic movements. Military regimes under General Ayub Khan, General Zia ul-Haq and General Musharraf ruled the country for a total of 35 years leading to a militarized political culture. Armed forces and intelligence agencies have been watchdogs for the elected governments to the present day. During the periods of military rule important economic achievements have been made, which led in turn to positive economic development. However, constant conflict with India, spill-over effects of conflicts in Afghanistan and internal political unrest were major constraints to continuous economic development. Due to these chaotic circumstances governments of the past have rather been concentrating on stabilization of statehood than social development and individual security (Bertelsmann Stiftung 2009b). Overall these political developments had a significant influence on the development of the governance of flood and disaster management in Pakistan. Until the present time, the military has been the major actor involved in disaster response and relief (GoP 2007: 59Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

60). The army has also been involved in the development and adjustment of national plans for flood protection and relief operations (Maqbool 2004: 13). Furthermore, the flood and disaster management sector remained almost unchanged for long periods of time and longterm developments have been unusual. The international war on terror and the partial acquisition of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) by Islamic extremists (Bertelsmann Stiftung 2009b: 5) are im-

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portant political hot spots. These also have certain implications in disaster response as the floods of 2010 illustrated.

3.1.2 Complexity of Flood Disasters and Vulnerability The Indus River plains are the major geographical area of concern in this case study because this is where major floods develop on a regular basis. These plains cover about 65-70 percent of the territory of Pakistan and originate in the Himalaya region located on Chinese and Indian territory (FAO 2011; GoP 2007). India is Pakistan’s major opponent in the region but at the same time cooperation with India and China in river management is essential for Pakistan in order to deal with current and future obstacles in flood management. Therefore, international policies and laws are of relevance in order to analyze the flood sector of Pakistan. Similarly to Bangladesh major floods generally occur during monsoon season65 and are aggravated by inflows of tributaries of the Indus like the Chenab and Jhelum. Besides riverine floods caused by heavy rainfalls Pakistan also experiences flash floods that are hard to control due to their very short lead-time. Glacier melt originating from the Himalaya region can contribute to higher river levels (WMO 2010). The Pakistani people are highly interlinked with their natural environment, which makes them particularly vulnerable to natural disasters like floods. The dependence of the Pakistani population on agriculture as a source of income or for subsistence is still high. According to the FAO about 40 percent of the entire labor force worked in the agricultural sector in 2008 (Ibid. 2010). From 1989 until 2009 agriculture has been contributing from 22 percent until about 27 percent to the national GDP and is therefore a very relevant sector in Pakistan. Irrigation is a very important economical factor in for the people and covers about 82 percent of the total farmland (FAO 2011). Irrigation allows better farming in the region but is also a cause of various problems like the salinization of soil and higher complexity in flood and drought management (Mustafa and Wrathall 2011: 77-79). Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

One important issue that contributes to vulnerability is the Pakistani dam system. Other than in Bangladesh, where large-scale hydrological structures are embankments and FCD systems, in Pakistan irrigation channels and dams constitute the major structures in the river system. However, these structures create complex dependencies among water users and authorities just like the hydrological structures used in the Bangladeshi case.

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Monsoon season lasts from July until September in Pakistan.

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Whereas dams serve as water reservoirs during dry season they impose serious problems during rainy season. Dams have changed river flows significantly making floods less frequent but also increasing their intensity (Mustafa and Wrathall 2011). Additionally, the priorities set by governmental authorities determine which areas will be protected during floods and which areas will be exposed to inundation. This practice is exercised by the army, which is breaching bunds66 during flooding in order to protect cities without considering needs of the rural population (Mustafa and Wescoat 1997: 240). The hydrologic system in Pakistan is therefore highly complex in technological and social terms and creates vulnerabilities that are mainly caused by human behavior. Recent trend shows that severe flooding events in Pakistan rose together with numbers of killed during these events (cf. Annex Graph 4, 5, 6) though not of a very high significance level, the differences between the Bangladeshi and Pakistani case become more apparent. Climate change creates further uncertainty because water scarcity is another great problem for agriculture besides floods (World Bank 2010: 1). The current From an engineering perspective the major question arising out of these complex dependencies is how flood protection and high-performance irrigation can persist within one hydrological system. Furthermore, rapid urbanization and population growth are factors that have the potential to aggravate floods in Pakistan (GoP 2007).

3.2

Learning Processes in the Governance of Flood Management after 1971

Within the past sixty years Pakistan has experienced at least five extraordinarily destructive floods67 the most recent and destructive one being the floods of 2010. In contrast to flood events that occurred in Bangladesh, floods have not been major drivers of change in Pakistan in the past. After the floods of 2010 though, there have been signs of reconsidering the governance of flood and disaster management.

3.2.1 Development in the Flood and Disaster Management after 1971 Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Pakistan and Bangladesh share a common history until 1971 when Bangladesh officially declared its independence from Pakistan. Within flood management the most significant difference between the two countries was that large-scale irrigation systems were already installed in Pakistan during the colonial period, which was not feasible in Bangladesh at

66 67

Bunds are small dams along rivers or around cities. These major events occurred in 1950, 1988, 1992 1998 and 2010 chosen by the numbers of people killed as a direct result of the floods and numbers of people affected (The International Disaster Database 2009).

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that time. The engineering approach in water management therefore dates back to very early days.

Institutions Except for some regionally specific laws, the governing of the water sector in Pakistan before 1971 was the same as that of Bangladesh (cf. previous chapter). Flood management has therefore been reactive and policy was very fragmented up until 1973. Water and therefore flood management was regarded as the task of the provinces and therefore legislation in the water sector was mostly done on the provincial level. As in Bangladesh associations in the water sector were considered within the laws of some provinces and in the Water Users’ Associations Ordinances of 1981 and 1982. These associations mainly influenced the maintenance of irrigation systems and had no influence on water management, planning or policies (Muhammad 1998: 12). Even though the Irrigation and Drainage Authorities Acts of 1997 of the provinces speak of improved participation of farmers in the water management this only refers to the autonomous maintenance works of Water Users’ Associations that was in place before (cf. Starkloff and uz-Zaman 1999). Flood management has not been mentioned in any of the competency fields of water management bodies for a long time and has therefore been considered separately. Environmental laws regulating water systems like the Natural Environmental Quality Standards of 1993 and the Pakistan Environmental Protection Act of 1997 concentrate more on water quality standards than on watercourse related problems like wetlands or the influence of hydro technology on ecologic systems. On the national level there was no significant attempt to regulate the water sector until 2006. The National Water Policy was drafted under the Ministry of Water and Power in 2006 but has not been approved up until today. Flood Management was for the first time included in this water policy with the major focus on technological improvements for flood protection. The policy recommendations draw out the improvement or establishment of Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

flood forecasting and warning and research in the weather system, which indicates that non-structural measures to flood management have been considered (GoP 2006: No.10). The general weakness of this policy is that it does not include any recommendations as to how the objectives referred to will be achieved nor does it include a timeframe. More sector specific policy was given by the National Flood Protection Plan of 1978 prepared by the newly established Federal Flood Commission (FFC). Technological measures were regarded as being the key way to respond to flood risk. This plan included 70

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three instruments that were believed to solve the flood problem. Firstly, improved technologies in flood forecasting were proposed but the technology was not chosen because of aspects of effectiveness. This maladaptations lead to a failure in forecasting during the devastating floods of 1988 for instance (Mustafa and Wescoat 1997: 241). Secondly, the operational procedures of existing reservoirs were recognized to be of great importance for flood protection in future even though flood protection played a subsequent role in the operation of dams. This became evident in the floods of 1992 that cost over 1.300 lives. Due to an underestimation of the water flow into the Mangla Dam reservoir two massive flood waves had to be discharged in order to prevent the destruction of the entire dam, which caused massive flooding. The third instrument was the practice of breaching bunds in order to relieve bunds in prioritized areas. This practice brought many criticisms by rural residents that live in areas of lower priority (Ibid. 1997). Legislation on disaster management before 2006 was primarily focused on disaster response and relief at national and provincial level. The National Calamities (Prevention and Relief) Act of 1958, the Local Government Ordinance of 2001 and the draft Emergency Services Ordinance of 2002 prescribed the distribution of competencies in state of emergencies in Pakistan. The bias towards a reactive approach to disasters becomes apparent within these laws (cf. GoP 1958; GoP 2001; GoP 2002b). A change in approach started in 2006 due to the National Disaster Ordinance68 and also in 2007 when the National Disaster Risk Management Framework was introduced. Supposedly, the major driver behind the Ordinance was the 2005 Kashmir earthquake that cost more than 73.300 lives in Pakistan (CRED 2009). The National Disaster Ordinance focuses particularly on reforming the authorities in disaster management, whilst it prescribes the establishment of many new agencies at all levels (GoP 2007: Chapter II-VIII). Furthermore, aspects of financing disaster management on different levels are included in detail (Ibid. 2007: Chapter IX). A considerably advanced but also difficult aspect in the National Disaster Ordinance is that it foresees penalties for non-compliance of duties by Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

authorities or for giving false alarms (Ibid. 2007: Chapter X). In summary, this ordinance is the first comprehensive legal framework in disaster management but again fails to establish any time frame for implementation. The National Disaster Risk Management Framework is an improvement with regard to a more holistic disaster management approach.

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The National Disaster Ordinance (Ordinance No. LIII of 2007) was upgraded to the National Disaster Management Act (Act No. XXIV of 2010) that contained the exactly same text including the day when it came into force.

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Most notably, the participation of stakeholders and community-based planning is included in this framework. Furthermore, knowledge generation is another important principle that will guide future disaster management (GoP 2007: xiii). These principles suggest that nonstructural and preventive measures are gaining importance within the disaster management sector. For a long time, water management in Pakistan concentrated on irrigation issues and the prevention of water pollution whereas flood issues were initially considered in this sector in 2006 but not implemented. Up until today the legislation of 1978 is the only orientation for actors in flood management (Mustafa and Wescoat 1997: 241) except for national and provincial disaster management legislation that is up to date not hazard specific. Flood management has followed a clearly structural approach following the basic assumption that floods are to be controlled through technological means. Non-structural measures were partly considered but mostly through improvement technology in flood forecasting. Participatory flood management as introduced in the Bangladeshi policy has not been considered in Pakistan up to this point. This state is very reminiscent of the engineering period in Bangladeshi flood management development, which was overcome by an increasingly activism of new groups. It can be concluded that disaster and flood management shifted from a reactive approach to a more preventive approach that still lacks implementation at different levels. Like during the initial phase in Bangladesh, new institutions were introduced before and shortly after Pakistani independence. Considering that there were no institutions in place before, the changes observed in the institutional framework are considered double-loop learning with tendencies to triple-loop learning. On the other hand the implementation side of policy is extremely weak in the flood and disaster management sectors and therefore law enforcement remained low (cf. Maqbool 2004). Major discourse remained in the realms of technical advancements whereas human-centered approaches or environmental capacities of flood management were absent or abandoned (cf. Mustafa and Wrathall Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

2011).

Uncertainty Risk and uncertainty were not considered before the 1973 floods but afterwards were tackled by trying to establish flood control measures and technology to predict flood disasters. Flood research and knowledge generation has been the Achilles’ heel of the flood problem in Pakistan (Mustafa and Wrathall 2011). The first comprehensive study in the water man72

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agement sector was the Water Resources Strategy Study that was termed one year and conducted in 2001 with the support of the ADB (GoP 2002a). The outcomes of this study were the National Water Sector Strategy and the National Water Sector Profile. Flood protection has been considered in these summaries but at the same time it is becoming apparent that it is merely a subsequent issue that receives only about two percent of the total spending in the sector. Furthermore, the Water Sector Strategy recognizes that the Flood Protection Sector Project, which has up to date been the only comprehensive project, completely neglected non-structural means and important studies have been abandoned (GoP 2002a). Even in the summaries flood protection is taking in low priority. Uncertainty in the flood management sector seems to be accepted since up until today only a single study on the river morphology on a tributary of the Indus has been published (Malhorta 1951 cited in Mustafa and Wrathall 2011:77). Research in the disaster management sector concentrates on impact assessments of climate change (cf. GoP 2007). According to these sobering findings, the GoP is facing uncertainty with only limited involvement. Studies on flood risk have hardly been conducted and therefore also the majority of policies and laws in this sector do not have scientific backup. The only indicator speaking in favor of a minimum of single-loop leaning is the fact that there has been a hesitant attempt to improve flood forecasting and flood controlling means. It was initiated in cooperation with the WMO in 1975 but clearly failed at the implementation stage (Mustafa and Wescoat 1997: 241).

Actor Network Unlike in Bangladesh, Pakistan does not have an apex agency in its water and disaster management sector that centrally coordinates efforts in these sectors before 2010. According to the constitution disaster is a matter of provincial legislation, which creates a huge burden for single provinces that are affected the most by floods and other disasters. Therefore, provinces are given the possibility of requesting help at the federal level, which can Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

up to now only send the army for response and relief (Mustafa and Wrathall 2011). Until today, the major agencies concerned with flood management have been the Provincial Irrigation Departments. Even though a central agency for disaster management at national level does not exist, the Emergency Relief Cell, the Federal Flood Commission and the Pakistan Meteorological Department are important agencies in disaster and flood management. The Emergency Relief Cell was established in 1970 and has ever since only been involved in post73

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disaster management (Maqbool 2004). The Federal Flood Commission is the only agency particularly involved in flood issues. Its structure is clearly dominated by engineers, which corresponds with its duties that are exclusively concerned with technical issues (Federal Flood Commission 2009). Flood and disaster management agencies have been very fragmented and isolated from each other, which is also the case at the provincial level (Maqbool 2004; GoP 2007; Mustafa and Wrathall 2011). A real network or community of practice therefore did not develop neither did existing structures intensify. Also networks outside of the governmental sphere of influence did not successfully evolve. NGOs, civil society, academics or the media did not manage to form significant alliances to address problems and interests in the field of flood management before 2010 even though critical voices about national flood management have been raised. In disaster management NGOs have limited influence. The National Disaster Risk Management Framework includes NGOs only with regard to the surveillance of their disaster related activities by a governmental agency (GoP 2007: 49-56). Major donors in the flood and disaster management sector have been the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (GoP 2007). Most of their projects dealt with reconstruction and relief rather than systematic flood proofing, which may lead to the assumption that flood control was the primary focus of these donors. The prevailing constellation of actors has mostly been very chaotic and the lack of coordination and cooperation in the flood and disaster management sector became apparent. Flood and water management in Pakistan was dominated by technocrats and engineers, who followed their own agenda and were not obliged to consider local interest groups (Mustafa 2002). Accordingly, no indicators of collective learning processes in the actor network were recognized.

Multi-level interactions The Pakistani administrational structure was subject to substantial reform on various occaCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

sions since independence. Basic administrational units are the national government, provinces, divisions, districts, Tehsils and Union Councils. Most of these units were established in 1958 and not all of them existed continuously during the different regimes. Throughout the reforms by different military and civil governments of the administrative system there has been a trend towards weakening the provincial level by giving its competencies to lower levels and therefore strengthening the central government (cf. Cheema et al. 2006).

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Before the floods of 1973 the Provincial Irrigation Departments and Provincial Public Works Departments alongside with the army were in charge of flood response and relief. Coordination between the federal level, the army and the provincial agencies remained very low at this stage. In the aftermath of the floods of 1973, with the establishment of the FFC and the formulation of the National Flood Protection Plan, the federal government tried to broaden its influence in flood management. Vertical coordination remained very low and structures transferred from provincial self-regulation to top-down regulation of the federal government. The provincial level was not involved in decision-making or in considering the knowledge that had been acquired at this level (Mustafa and Wescoat 1997: 240-41). The Local Government Ordinance of 2001 provides the sub-provincial level with powers and duties in disaster management and response. Emergency plans are to be established at this level but substantial policy- and decision-making and control over finances still remains at the federal level (GoP 2001). As already mentioned in the last subsection, NGOs and civil society are not formally included in the legal framework nor did they take decisive roles as strong advocators for better disaster and flood management. The reason for this is supposedly the generally limited scope of Pakistani NGOs on research, policy debate and advocacy (ADB 1999: 5) compared to the NGO sector of Bangladesh that took in a strong role in opposing the FAP for instance. The National Disaster Management Ordinance reformed the entire disaster management arena at all levels by introducing new agencies. However, it did not mention how existing sector specific agencies like the FFC or the Emergency Relief Cell and their subsequent agencies at local level are related to the newly established ones (cf. GoP 2007). Furthermore, since the Ordinance was converted into the National Disaster Management Act in 2010 it did not have any effect on the disaster management system prior to 2010 (Nizami 2011). Flood Management remained a technocratic business in Pakistan whilst federal poliCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

cy prioritizes influential groups heavily and the local level further reinforces this pattern through exclusive participation (Mustafa 1998; Mustafa and Wrathall 2011). Still, the coordination between the two levels remains low and top-down policy- and decision-making remains the dominant flow of authority. No sustainable changes in the interaction between the different levels in disaster and flood management have been taking place and therefore learning processes have not become detectable.

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Governance Mode In the water sector Pakistan was always influenced by the British colonial structures that consisted of bureaucracies implementing the rule of the central authority. Even though today elected governments operate at local levels in Pakistan, bureaucracy is still a strong factor especially in the water sector and therefore also in flood management (cf. Mustafa 1998; Ibid. 2002; Cheema et al. 2006). Market-based governance or networks were therefore not able to challenge bureaucratic structures in the water and flood management sector. Reforms of the bureaucracy in the water sector did not lead to changes in the overall structures (Mustafa 2002). Accordingly, no changes with regard to new governance instruments have occurred leading to the conclusion that collective learning did not evolve.

3.2.2 The Floods of 2010 and their Aftermath Within the past century Pakistan has achieved technological advancements in irrigation and therefore agriculture. These advancements came together with high social costs. Floods in 1950, 1973, 1992, 1995 and 1998 were very severe considering the numbers of affected people and the death toll. Despite these losses there have not been many sustainable changes in the flood management system of Pakistan before 2010. The floods of 2010 have been by far the most severe floods according to the range of affected population and the number of deaths. Beyond this tragic record one can make only vague assumptions why these floods catalyzed changes in a relatively short time period. But this discussion lies beyond the scope of the present study. Most significant changes have been the increasing attention to the floods by international and national media and the first large-scale judicial claims about irresponsible behavior of the authorities in charge. Based on a vast amount of petitions the Supreme Court of Pakistan set up a Flood Inquiry Commission. The petitioners held authorities responsible for many of the failures in preparation and response to the 2010 floods. The final reCopyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

port of this commission reviews the entire sector and lays open many failures in water management as well as flood management of the past and during the floods (Kiani 2011; Flood Inquiry Commission n.d.). The effects of this judicial venture is still uncertain but the fact that new ways of challenging the prevailing system have been taken indicates that views about flood management are about to be changed, as happened in the FAP era in Bangladesh.

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It is still too early to make any statements about learning processes after the floods of 2010 since sustainability is a crucial factor of learning, but considering the actual situation one can afford to be a little more optimistic than in the past.

3.3

Collective Learning Processes in the Governance of Flood and Disaster Management in Pakistan

As the structure of this section reveals, floods have been major drivers neither of flood nor of disaster management in Pakistan in the past. Major changes in disaster policy and the judicial framework only came about after the 2005 earthquake in the Kashmir region. Still, the new policy is focused on response and relief rather than on mitigation and social aspects of flood disasters. In sum, the development in the flood management sector was not driven by public pressure or newly achieved knowledge about flooding. Therefore, research and participation as major drivers of learning were not part of the overall development. Changes in institutions were the most significant ones in Pakistan though they did not necessarily lead to changes in approaches (cf. Table 9). The problems in implementation became apparent in the water, flood and disaster management sector. This lethargy has

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been a continuum for many decades in Pakistan.

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4

4.1

Conclusion

Collective Learning in Flood and Disaster Management: A Comparison

As demonstrated in chapters 2 and 3, the developments in the governance of flood and disaster management of Bangladesh and Pakistan point out significant differences. This was an expected result within the present analytical framework, since the difference in levels of relative vulnerability was supposed to be connected to a difference in the development (Section 1.3). The case study selection is therefore proofed to be appropriate for the given framework of analysis. Yet, general differences in the development are not sufficient in order to accurately answer the stated research questions in this study. The previous analysis highlighted those changes that explicitly resulted from learning processes. Flood and disaster management in Bangladesh and Pakistan dates back to their shared history as former British colonies. The foundations for flood and disaster management have therefore been similar. Apart from this, even after their independence both countries had similar problems in their governance like instability, corruption or poor human development (Sections 1.4.2; 2.1.1; 3.1.1). Another similarity is the social dependency on agriculture in both cases that interacts with very complex hydrological settings (Sections 2.1.2 and 3.1.2). This leads in both cases to highly complex social-ecological interdependencies, which have often resulted in numerous flood disasters in the past and present. Even though Bangladesh and Pakistan have these features in common, their development in the flood and disaster management sector shows remarkable differences. Already after the separation of both countries in 1971, the developments in the water and disaster management sector followed different paths. While flood management in Pakistan concentrated almost exclusively on disaster response during the entire evaluation period (cf. Section 3.2.1), Bangladesh was moving ahead towards a more holistic approach of flood management. By holistic approach it is meant that besides structural measures also

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non-structural measures were considered; policy and its implementation was influenced by state and non-state actors operating at multiple levels; and uncertainty is recognized and therefore more flexible frameworks of risk management are considered. The shift in approaches in the Bangladeshi case study proceeded gradually and was catalyzed by two major floods. Pakistan only recently started a new attempt of changing their flood and disaster management in order to achieve a more holistic approach. Though, in contrast to Bangladesh, many former attempts to change the flood and disaster management sector did not

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even enter the implementation stage. Bangladesh was also struggling with the implementation of policies at certain points, but these problems arose out of the implementation process itself rather than its total absence. Uncertainty in the flood and disaster management was gradually recognized and treated in the Bangladeshi case. This included the reliance on research firstly on geographic and technological issues and later on social and environmental topics. Studies were not only conducted, but led to concrete policies like in the FAP era (Section 2.2.2.). Furthermore, the early warning system and flood forecasting also experienced changes as prescribed in the FAP studies. The Pakistani case study did in turn only provide slight changes that can be traced back to learning processes. It can therefore be argued that the changes in the flood forecasting in 1975 had been an important attempt to reduce risk. They were based on a previous assessment that was undertaken by Pakistani and an external actor. The major constraint in connection to these renewals was their final implementation, which was only done partially. The greatest difference between both countries with regard to collective learning processes, were found in the development of actor networks. In the Pakistan case study flood and disaster management remained in the circle of engineers and technocrats. Cooperation with external actors was given in particular projects or programs, but no evidence was found that donors had as much influence on national policy as in the Bangladeshi case study (Section 3.2.1). The most contrasting feature in the two case studies is the involvement of NGOs and the civil society. Civil society and NGOs in Pakistan were not able to form a strong coalition in order to advocate for changes in the sector or to provide further knowledge on flood and disaster management. The general strength of the NGO sector in Bangladesh also had strong impacts on the flood and disaster management sector. Nongovernmental groups were also involved in the governance of flood and disaster management (Section 2.2.3). Even though, the cooperation between the governmental and nongovernmental sector revealed some gaps, it still led to mutual benefits and more flexible Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

solutions in flood management. Nonetheless, engineers and donors clearly dominated the governance of flood and disaster management for a long period of time in Bangladesh. Polycentric systems were identified to be the most appropriate structure in complex governance system in order to encourage multi-level interactions (cf. Pahl Wostl 2009). In Bangladesh a weak polycentric governance system evolved over time out of mainly isolated centers of influence. This development started with the rule of landlords in water management that were acting in isolation of each other and in loose cooperation with the cen79

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tral authority (Section 2.2.1). After independence, in both countries the regulations from the national level increased, which lead to a strong centralization while the responsibility to respond and prepare for floods stayed with the local level. Recently in Bangladesh, important competencies of decision-making and planning were handed over to the local level and non-state actors with the aim of improving performance in the water sector and provide a more flexible framework (Section 2.2.3). This strengthened vertical coordination, though there remains still an urgent need for improvements. The Pakistani governance of flood and disaster management is decentralized since competencies remain on the provincial and local level. Still, vertical and horizontal coordination have only seldom been achieved. Therefore, the structures of the flood and disaster management system are promising (Section 3.2.1). However, without a minimal degree of coordination and interaction between the actors in this system, it is far from being a polycentric system. A considerable weak point in both case studies was the development in the modes of governance. Whereas in Pakistan bureaucratic structures clearly dominated the flood and disaster management sector down to the present day, only slight changes were observed in the case study of Bangladesh. This change is a result of the increasingly strong NGO sector that cooperates with civil society and academics. Major weaknesses in this system derive out of the relative randomness in which governmental authorities seek to cooperate with non-governmental actors. Table 9. Collective Learning Patterns in Bangladesh and Pakistan Single-loop learning

Double-loop learning

Triple-loop learning

X X X

X

(X)

X X X (X)

X X X

X (X)

X X X X X

X X X X

X X X

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Case Study of Bangladesh Initial Stage Institutions Uncertainty Actor network (Multi-level) (Governance Mode) After the 1988 floods Institutions Uncertainty Actor network Multi-level (Governance Mode) After the 1998 floods Institutions Uncertainty Actor network Multi-level Governance Mode

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Case Study of Pakistan Pre-Colonial until 2010 Institutions Uncertainty (Actor network) (Multi-level) (Governance Mode)

X (X)

X

X

Source: Own Research based on the analytical framework of Pahl-Wostl (2009) Remarks: Crosses indicate that this learning stage had been entered meaning that they fulfill the criteria set by Pahl-Wostl (2009). Crosses in brackets indicate that there has been a trend towards this level but it had not fully been reached since major criteria have not been achieved yet. Empty rows indicate that no learning stage had been entered within the given time period.

Collective learning processes, which have been detected in the two case studies concentrated on Bangladesh especially in the period after the floods of 1998 (Table 9). In the case study of Bangladesh collective learning processes gradually moved towards higher levels after major flood events. The only exception in this respect has been learning processes in the development of institutions, which started at a relatively high level. The reason for this immediately high level of learning was justified on the grounds that new regulative institutions have been introduced. These institutions have been the first attempts to regulate obstacles that have been perceived in the field of water- and therefore flood management. At this stage, regulations affecting the water sector were transferred from informal institutions into formal ones. Even though formal institutions indicated the highest level of learning in Pakistan, they failed to be transferred into action. Disaster response during floods indicated remarkable progress that was especially due to the expertise in the army. Beyond this scope almost, nothing was changed in the structures of flood and disaster management up until today.

4.2

Summary of Findings

During the course of the analysis of both case studies, the high complexity of the concept Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

of vulnerability became apparent. Vulnerability to flood hazards was shaped by geographic, environmental, climatologic, economic, technological and social factors to name a few. But these factors only defined the features of the ecological system on one side and those of the social system on the other side, but not their interaction. By keeping major indicators of human development, hazard-specific indicators, relevant governance indicators and hydrological settings constant among the two case studies, the present analysis intended to test a determinant of vulnerability that is better able to cap81

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ture its complexity. Major aim of the analysis was to test a possible correlation between the vulnerability to floods and the proposed determinant, namely collective learning processes. Furthermore, the manner in which vulnerability to floods was shaped by collective learning was an important aspect of this research.

4.2.1 The Influence of Collective Learning Processes on Vulnerability The major research question in this analysis was formulated as follows: Do collective learning processes have a detectable influence on the vulnerability of a society to hazards? The analysis of the two case studies revealed that the increased presence of collective learning processes in the governance of flood and disaster management was connected to lower levels of vulnerability to flood disasters. In turn, the case study with very low presence of collective learning processes in the governance of flood and disaster management indicated much higher levels of vulnerability to flood disasters. As consequence, the correlation between vulnerability to flood hazards and collective learning in the governance of flood and disaster management becomes evident. The direction of this correlation is negative, which means that high levels of vulnerability correspond to low intensity in collective learning processes and vice versa. The level of learning has therefore played a significant role in the reduction of vulnerability to flood hazards in both cases. It important to notice though, that this observation mainly concentrates on the vulnerability to flood hazards and therefore statements about other climatological hazards is not immediately included in this conclusion. It is suggested though, that other climate change-related hazards in Bangladesh underwent a similar process, since the disaster management sector considers various hazards in Bangladesh.

4.2.2 The Way Collective Learning Changes Vulnerability The second research question was subordinated to the main research question with the aim Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

of further specifying linkages between vulnerability and collective learning processes. It was therefore formulated as follows: How did collective learning processes in Bangladesh and Pakistan influence the vulnerability of their respective societies to flood hazards? Since learning processes were concentrated on the case study of Bangladesh, this research question can only be answered by using the Bangladeshi experience. Collective learning was developing gradually, whilst higher levels of learning built upon lower levels. This path of development was most significantly shaped by the actor constellations in 82

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Bangladesh. The engineering coalition was a synonym for single-loop and double-loop learning because it mainly seeked to improve flood protection and disaster risk by using approved methods, while it also changed strategies when it was realized that full flood control is not achievable. Following, the environmental coalition was strengthened and substantially influenced the way uncertainty was treated and initiated changes in informal and later on formal institutions. It therefore initiated a reconsideration of old concepts and structures. The interplay of both actor networks resulted in higher learning levels than during the times in which only the environmental coalition dominated. A considerably important role was taken in by external donors, who had a significant influence on strategies used in flood management like the World Bank for instance. After the floods of 1998 the formal and informal roles of the entirety of actors in flood management blurred. This in turn made it difficult to estimate, which actors were involved in changes. This was due to increasing participation by stakeholders and NGOs in planning and also in decision making. The increasing multiplicity in this environmental governance system led to a flood disaster management that generated and considered knowledge on different levels and different topics. This knowledge was often translated into new formal institutions and also into practice. Two examples therefore are the Guidelines on Participation and Environmental Impact Assessments, which both had to be considered in every governmental project after the FAP era. Especially the strong NGO sector compensated weaknesses of the national government like during the floods of 1998 and the subsequent recovery phase. Large NGOs in Bangladesh like the Bangladesh Rehabilitation Assistance Committee also functioned as bridging organizations between the grassroots-level and governmental agencies (Section 2.2.3). In sum, the flood and disaster management system in Bangladesh became more diverse and was therefore more and more able to “learn to live with floods” as Royal Haskoning pointed it out. The increasing flexibility of this system allowed it to manage flood Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

risk in short and long term perspective. Vulnerability was therefore decreased for the first time when the dominating network was willing to consider new networks in their affairs. Vulnerability decreased further when interactions between multiple levels increased. Accordingly, learning processes influenced vulnerability to flood hazards in Bangladesh in such a manner that they enabled a more flexible system of governance that was better capable of dealing with uncertainty.

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The present study therefore proofed that the vulnerability to flood hazards in Bangladesh and Pakistan can be, to a large extent, attributed to the capacity of their flood management governance systems to facilitate collective learning processes. It is therefore proofed that there is an urgent need to consider more complex determinants when assessing the vulnerability of a specific country. Furthermore, this finding supports the notion that in order to successfully adapt to climate change, decision makers and practitioners need to strengthen their adaptive capacity. In this respect, adaptation measures that aim on higher levels of cooperation between multiple actors at different levels should be of greatest priority. A good example for such an adaptation effort is the CDMP, which is still on-going in Bangladesh.

4.3

Limitations and Outlook

The present analysis concentrated exclusively on one specific climate change-related hazard. It was therefore not in the scope of this study to draw conclusions on other changerelated hazards. But ever since the hazard is only one component of a natural disaster, it is suspected that the findings may be transferable to a certain extend. Furthermore, Bangladesh has been chosen as an extreme case example in order to make learning patterns better visible. It therefore remains to be investigated further whether other case studies with medium exposure to flood hazards show similar results with regard to learning processes. Some remarks remain to be made concerning the work with the analytical framework of Claudia Pahl-Wostl. For the purpose of the present analysis, this framework was found to be very suitable. This was despite the fact that Pahl-Wostl’s framework had a greater emphasis on actual resource management systems, whereas the present analysis furthermore included the disaster management sector. Nonetheless, the criteria developed within Pahl-Wostl’s framework were still suitable when applied in this additional sector. The clear focus on learning outcomes within this analytical framework was balanced in the present analysis, by referring back to key issues of the actual learning processes. Copyright © 2013. Diplomica Verlag. All rights reserved.

Based on this analysis there are two important aspects, which should be considered in future research. On one hand, the present study highlights the process and outcome of learning. This perspective largely ignores the factors that determine whether learning is getting initiated. A research question addressing this gap could therefore be: Which are the factors that decide the commencement of collective learning processes in environmental governance systems? By answering this research question, further conclusions could be drawn on how collective learning processes can be successfully initiated. 84

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A last important aspect that is considered to be relevant for future research is related to the case study of Pakistan. Considering that the floods of 2010 already started discussions on flood protection and the governance of flood and disaster management, it would be important to evaluate what effects this public discourse has on collective learning processes in the flood and disaster management. A possible research question in this respect could be: Did the floods of 2010 lead to significant transformations in the flood and disaster

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management sector?

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Annex Graph 1. Frequency of disastrous flood events 1980-2010 in Bangladeshx

Number of disastrous events

6 5 4 y = 0,025x - 47,681 R² = 0,0421

3 2 1 0 1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Linear Trend (No. of disastrous events) Source of data: CRED and OFDA 2009. x= Disastrous flood events are defined as events of flooding causing one or more of the following criteria according to EM-DAT: ten or more people killed, hundred or more people reported affected, declaration of a state of emergency, or call of international assistance.

Graph 2. Human losses as immediate effect of flooding 1980-2010 in Bangladeshx

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Number of human losses

2500 2000 1500 1000 y = -14,625x + 29579 R² = 0,0436

500 0 1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Linear Trend (No. of human losses) Source of data: CRED and OFDA 2009. x= According to EM-DAT human losses include all people confirmed dead or missing and presumed dead as an immediate effect of a disaster.

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Number of people affected (in Millions)

Graph 3. Number of people affected by flood events 1980-2010 in Bangladeshx y 50 40 30 20 y = -225372x + 5E+08 R² = 0,0286

10 0

Linear Trend (No. of people affected) Source of data: CRED and OFDA 2009. x= Disastrous flood events are defined as events of flooding causing one or more of the following criteria according to EM-DAT: ten or more people killed, hundred or more people reported affected, declaration of a state of emergency, or call of international assistance. y= According to EM-DAT injured, homeless and exposed people requiring immediate assistance during a period of emergency. This also includes displaced or evacuated people.

Graph 4. Frequency of disastrous flood events 1980-2010 in Pakistanx

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Number of disastrous events

8 7 6 5 y = 0,1347x - 266,81 R² = 0,4917

4 3 2 1 0 1975 -1

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Linear trend (No. of disastrous events) Source of data: CRED and OFDA 2009. x= Disastrous flood events are defined as events of flooding causing one or more of the following criteria according to EM-DAT: ten or more people killed, hundred or more people reported affected, declaration of a state of emergency, or call of international assistance.

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Graph 5. Human losses as immediate effect of flooding 1980-2010 in Pakistanx

Number of human losses

2500 2000 1500 1000 y = 19,447x - 38504 R² = 0,1302 500 0 1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Linear Trend (No. of human losses) Source of data: CRED and OFDA 2009. x= According to EM-DAT human losses include all people confirmed dead or missing and presumed dead as an immediate effect of a disaster.

Graph 6. Number of people affected by flood events 1980-2010 in Pakistanx y

Number of people affected (in Millions)

25 20 15 10

y = 148211x - 3E+08 R² = 0,1066

5 0 1975 -5

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

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Linear Trend (No. of people affected) Source of data: CRED and OFDA 2009. x= Disastrous flood events are defined as events of flooding causing one or more of the following criteria according to EM-DAT: ten or more people killed, hundred or more people reported affected, declaration of a state of emergency, or call of international assistance. y= According to EM-DAT injured, homeless and exposed people requiring immediate assistance during a period of emergency. This also includes displaced or evacuated people.

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