The Future of ASEAN 9789814519991

Citation preview

Reproduced from The 34th Singapore Lecture: The Future of ASEAN, by Hassanal Bolkiah (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2014). This version was obtained electronically direct from the publisher on condition that copyright is not infringed. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the prior permission of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Individual articles are available at

The future of asean

00 34th SL_PrelimsIT.indd 1

10/9/14 10:38 AM

The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) was established as an autonomous organization in 1968. It is a regional research centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are the Regional Economic Studies (RES, including ASEAN and APEC), Regional Strategic and Political Studies (RSPS), and Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS). ISEAS Publishing, an established academic press, has issued more than 2,000 books and journals. It is the largest scholarly publisher of research about Southeast Asia from within the region. ISEAS Publishing works with many other academic and trade publishers and distributors to disseminate important research and analyses from and about Southeast Asia to the rest of the world.

00 34th SL_PrelimsIT.indd 2

12/8/14 4:58 PM

Singapore Lecture 22 April 2014

The future of asean

Hassanal Bolkiah

Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore

00 34th SL_PrelimsIT.indd 3

10/9/14 10:38 AM

Published in Singapore in 2014 by ISEAS Publishing Institute of Southeast Asian Studies 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Pasir Panjang Singapore 119614 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg © 2014 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore ISEAS Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah, Haji, Sultan of Brunei, 1946 The 34th Singapore Lecture : the future of ASEAN. (Singapore lecture series, 0129-1912 ; [34]) 1. ASEAN. 2. Regionalism—Southeast Asia. 3. Southeast Asia—Foreign relations. I. Singapore Lecture (34th : 2014 : Singapore) II. Title. III. Title: Future of ASEAN IV. Series: Singapore lecture series ; [34]. DS501 I597 no. 34 2014 ISBN 978-981-4519-98-4 (soft cover) ISBN 978-981-4519-99-1 (E-book PDF) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo­copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

Typeset by International Typesetters Pte Ltd Printed in Singapore by Markono Print Media Pte Ltd

00 34th SL_PrelimsIT.indd 4

12/8/14 4:58 PM

CONTENTS

I

Welcome Remarks

Teo Chee Hean 1

II The Future of ASEAN

Hassanal Bolkiah 4



00 34th SL_PrelimsIT.indd 5

12/8/14 4:58 PM

00 34th SL_PrelimsIT.indd 6

12/8/14 4:58 PM

I Welcome Remarks Teo Chee Hean

Your Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah, Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam; Excellencies; Distinguished Guests; Ladies and Gentlemen. I would like to welcome all of you to the 34th Singapore Lecture. Your Majesty, it is our great pleasure and honour to have you with us this morning. On behalf of the organizers, I thank Your Majesty for agreeing to deliver the Singapore Lecture on the occasion of your State Visit to Singapore. Thanks in large part to His Majesty’s support, Singapore and Brunei enjoy a very special relationship. As the two smallest countries in the region, we share a common strategic outlook. We have been close partners since the 1960s. This longstanding friendship was forged by the common need to secure our countries’ futures in what was then a turbulent region. Unique cooperative arrangements in defence and currency interchangeability are key pillars of our close bilateral ties. Our small size also means that ASEAN has been, and will continue to be, the cornerstone of our two countries’ foreign policy.

01 34th SL_WelcomeIT.indd 1

11/8/14 12:12 PM

2

Brunei joined the ASEAN family shortly after independence in 1984, and we have collaborated very closely within ASEAN through the years. We both instinctively understand the importance of regional stability. We also understand that more can be achieved if countries in the region are integrated as one ASEAN community. Brunei chaired ASEAN in 2013 at a critical juncture in ASEAN’s development. ASEAN’s ability to stay united, manage disputes, and play a central role in the evolving regional architecture was being questioned. After taking over the Chairmanship, His Majesty pledged to encourage consensus without compromising the national interests of member countries and our partners. Putting words into action, His Majesty visited all the ASEAN Member States and most of our Dialogue Partners last year for consultations. This quiet diplomacy helped ASEAN to regain credibility and navigate challenges such as the South China Sea issue. His Majesty’s skilful Chairmanship of ASEAN enhanced the grouping’s standing as well as that of Brunei, both regionally and internationally. As Chair, Brunei also helped to refocus ASEAN’s energy on achieving an ASEAN Community by end 2015. Brunei also presided over our Leaders’ adoption of the Bandar Seri Begawan Declaration on the ASEAN Community’s Post-2015 Vision, and the creation of a High-Level Task Force to review ASEAN institutions, processes and external relations to complement the development of ASEAN’s Post-2015 Vision. Following Brunei’s successful ASEAN Chairmanship, His Majesty is eminently qualified to speak on today’s lecture topic, “The Future of ASEAN”. Having assumed the throne in 1967, His Majesty is the longest serving Head of Government in ASEAN and one of the longest reigning monarchs in the world. His Majesty is an experienced and respected elder statesman, and has been a

01 34th SL_WelcomeIT.indd 2

11/8/14 12:12 PM

3

close observer and keen participant in ASEAN for the past several decades. His Majesty therefore has a solid grasp of ASEAN’s past and present. We are extremely privileged that His Majesty has agreed to share his vision for ASEAN’s future with us today. Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, I would like to invite His Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah, the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam, to deliver the 34th Singapore Lecture. Thank you.

01 34th SL_WelcomeIT.indd 3

11/8/14 12:12 PM

II The Future of ASEAN Hassanal Bolkiah

Good Morning, Deputy Prime Minister, Teo Chee Hean; Deputy Chairman of ISEAS, Wong Ah Long; Excellencies; Ladies and Gentlemen. I much appreciate your kind words of introduction DPM Teo Chee Hean and I also would like to acknowledge your active contribution in strengthening the overall Brunei-Singapore relations. It is a pleasure to be here and my thanks to the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) for their invitation to participate in the Singapore Lecture series and to speak on “The Future of ASEAN”. I am honoured to be here in the midst of such a distinguished audience, with many of the region’s leading thinkers. From early in the history of Southeast Asia, institutions have provided much-needed frank and considered opinions that have driven ASEAN forward and challenged the way we do things. ISEAS, especially, has been playing an important role from the start, since its establishment in 1968, a year after the Bangkok Declaration, which formed the regional grouping.

02 34th SL_SpeechIT.indd 4

10/9/14 10:39 AM

5

The world then was a very different place. In 1987, I attended my first ASEAN Meeting in the Philippines. It was the third ASEAN Heads of Government Meeting, and the first one since Brunei had joined the “original five” in 1984. Looking back, l was fortunate to be surrounded by many good friends, including former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore. The Manila Summit was convened in spite of the delicate security situation in the Philippines. The Summit took place primarily as a show of solidarity for regional stability. Much has changed since then. Geopolitics have shifted, while the global economy has “boomed and bust”. Most countries in our region have seen remarkable progress and lifted their citizens out of poverty. And now, East Asia and the Asia Pacific contribute to 40 per cent of global growth and one-third of the world’s trade. Importantly, ASEAN has also changed, growing in membership and confidence, and emerging as a community next year. However, in the past, when we looked forward, things were unpredictable. And likewise now, we continue to find ourselves in a similar situation.

02 34th SL_SpeechITn.indd 5

11/8/14 5:20 PM

6

Ladies and Gentlemen, This century has been called the “the Asian Century”. While we can learn from history, the situation in Asia is unprecedented. Essentially, Asia’s rise will bring changes to the current global strategic configuration. The pace of change in the region will speed up. China and India will be the major economic drivers with the US remaining engaged in the region and the EU prevailing in Europe. With the shift of relative economic weight towards Asia, political power also follows correspondingly. New major and middle powers are emerging. Together, changes in their relationship will influence the strategic landscape. Such transformations are also accompanied by the increasing role of non-state actors, such as civil society organizations, multinational corporations and international institutions. The terrain of international relations is more diverse. The future of Southeast Asia is tied to its neighbours in East Asia and the Asia Pacific. The challenge for ASEAN will be finding its strategic place in this new configuration.

02 34th SL_SpeechITn.indd 6

11/8/14 5:20 PM

7

This is something our association must earn, by playing a greater role in regional and world affairs, to ensure the security and prosperity of its people. In the coming decades, we will continue to be confronted with different and possibly more intense challenges than we currently face. We are seeing worrying trends of weakening confidence and trust. We are concerned with the return of explicit major power rivalry. Historical and political divide still continue to fuel nationalistic sentiments between countries. Difficulties in meeting economic commitments and unresolved maritime disputes are risking the region’s potential. We are increasingly confronted with a host of transnational crimes related to terrorism, drug and human trafficking, and cyber security. At the same time we are witnessing new threats such as extreme natural disasters and emerging communicable diseases. They constitute present and imminent danger to our countries as the economic cost and consequences upon the livelihood of our people are enormous. We also have to address increasing implications affecting those left behind by globalization.

02 34th SL_SpeechITn.indd 7

11/8/14 5:20 PM

8

Ladies and Gentlemen, The future of our wider regional architecture is very much a work in progress. We hope it is a region in which countries enjoy peace, prosperity and progress characterized by respect, understanding and cooperation. Ideally, it should be an open and inclusive arrangement with countries in the Asia Pacific rallying around ASEAN. And it is imperative for our association to be proactive in shaping the future. Foremost member states must continue to strengthen ASEAN. It is crucial that we address and resolve regional problems or issues through peaceful dialogues and initiatives. We need to ensure ASEAN’s three community pillars are serving the region’s interests. We must continue to be more responsive and strive to be a people-oriented organization. A successful community should not only be layers of structures and endless acronyms, nor as a vehicle for government officials to meet. The community should reside in the hearts and minds of our people — our youth and women, farmers and fishermen, and the many small and medium businesses forming an essential part of our economies.

02 34th SL_SpeechITn.indd 8

11/8/14 5:20 PM

9

It must guarantee the security of their livelihood, provide them clean air and water, improve their skills and offer bright prospects that open up opportunities for their future. They must be central in the agenda of the community pillars. This is why it is important that ASEAN enhances its internal coordination and cooperation to ensure our initiatives are carried out promptly for the benefit of our people. I, therefore, welcome the recent statement of the Prime Minister of Malaysia to make a “People-Centred ASEAN” as the main focus of the country’s chairmanship next year. And I urge the speedy realization of ASEAN’s “soft” connectivity projects, aimed at bringing about a sense of regional belonging amongst our people, such as through the new social media and cultural and educational exchanges amongst our youth. In short, more can be done to nurture an “ASEAN mindset” amongst our people to further promote regional harmony. Ladies and Gentlemen, The success of the association in establishing robust relations with many important external partners through a number of frameworks represents our way of reaching out to them in contributing to peace, stability and prosperity. Our shared interests are expanding and our common concerns are converging. Together with its partners, ASEAN should carry on in its work to strengthen confidence, trust and care for each other’s welfare.

02 34th SL_SpeechITn.indd 9

11/8/14 5:20 PM

10

In this regard, we need to emphasize the significance of promoting rules-based relations amongst countries in the region. It is important to work harder to raise our GDP, build better infrastructure, expand markets for our goods, develop stronger integrated financial markets, enhance financial literacy and create more jobs for our youth. As a region, Southeast Asia needs to be more competitive and innovative to play a greater role in the global economy. We should make certain there is sustained economic growth in ASEAN to overcome future social problems, such as growing economic disparities and those caused by demographic changes. Ladies and Gentlemen, To cope with increasing tasks and responsibilities, ASEAN requires the support of a strong and dynamic secretariat. It is only reasonable that it is equipped with the necessary resources. This is to ensure that the Secretariat retains experts to effectively coordinate and carry out ASEAN’s agenda in various areas, including executing regional responses to emergencies. This is especially critical during times of crises. Humanitarian exercises that have been held in the past must be put into action when required such as the aftermath of “Super Typhoon Haiyan”.

02 34th SL_SpeechITn.indd 10

11/8/14 5:20 PM

11

I also wish to take this opportunity to relate my own impression of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief and Military Medicine Exercise held in Brunei last year. It was a landmark exercise amongst our defence forces aimed at promoting capacity-building, enhancing interoperability and coordinating effective responses. I witnessed military personnel from regional powers such as China, the US, Japan and India working hand-in-hand. Personally, seeing all eighteen countries coming together in bringing relief and assistance conveyed a very strong message of how meaningful our work can be, especially in reacting to emergencies. I believe that such exercises must be put into action in the interest of our people. I applaud Singapore’s offer of the Changi Command and Control Centre as a regional humanitarian and disaster relief co-host centre. It will do much to enhance our cooperation in this area. Thus it is also crucial that ASEAN and its partners work together to address the impending regional challenges through practical cooperation and ensure our people stand to benefit. It is only by working together that we will be able to face any such challenges in the future and promote stability.

02 34th SL_SpeechITn.indd 11

11/8/14 5:20 PM

12

Ladies and Gentlemen, As I mentioned earlier, a lot has changed since my first ASEAN meeting in Manila. The Summit now takes place twice a year. It has grown into more than just a show of solidarity. We are constantly responding to threats, risks and challenges, each time they come around. We are also constantly preparing ourselves for our people’s future. At the same time, whilst our practice of consultation has been ingrained in the “ASEAN way”, our overall environment continues to evolve, and the regional association must adapt to the new realities we face. With globalization and advances in I.C.T., close consultation will be even more important. As in the past, the “ASEAN way” will continue to be our hallmark — consensus-building, mutual respect, close consultations and exercising sensitivity over delicate issues. I foresee it would need to be more inclusive and responsive in the way we work, taking into account greater interest of our stakeholders and partners in ASEAN. ASEAN will also need to ensure strategic trust and confidence is maintained through positive engagement, dialogue and practical cooperation.

02 34th SL_SpeechITn.indd 12

11/8/14 5:20 PM

13

Above all as a community, we must determine our own destiny. It is only possible if we continue to be united, cohesive and assert leadership in “ASEAN-led initiatives”. Ladies and Gentlemen, Over the past forty years Southeast Asia has been consolidated as a region, ASEAN strengthened as an organization and the value of peace, stability and development inculcated amongst our people. As we look to the future, our horizon will broaden further. Hence the success of the association and its cooperation with its partners in East Asia and the Asia Pacific will be even more critical than it is today. It is my wish to see that as a community of Southeast Asian nations, our region progresses on the basis of stronger neighbourly relations, close friendship, pragmatic cooperation and interdependence so that peace and prosperity is shared by all. Thank you.

02 34th SL_SpeechITn.indd 13

11/8/14 5:20 PM

Hassanal Bolkiah

His Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah ibni Al-Marhum Sultan Haji Omar ‘Ali Saifuddien Sa’adul Khairi Waddien, Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam is the 29th Sultan of Brunei Darussalam, in an unbroken line of succession of monarchy over 600 years. His Majesty ascended the throne in 1967. Under his reign, Brunei Darussalam has undergone an impressive transformation under His Majesty’s leadership and is revered by his subjects as the “Caring Monarch”. As a result, Brunei Darussalam has achieved unprecedented political and macroeconomic stability. The people of Brunei Darussalam today enjoy a high quality of life with an estimated GDP per capita of US$40,300 — the second highest in the ASEAN region. The quality of life ranked 3rd in Asia, according to the UNDP Human Development Index 2009, and the highest in the Islamic World. His Majesty charted the future development of Darussalam with the Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Brunei 2035) which Brunei strives to be recognised by 2035 accomplishments of its well-educated and highly skilled the quality of life; the dynamic, sustainable economy.

Brunei Vision for the people;

High among His Majesty’s most notable and significant achievements during his years in power has been his success in putting Brunei Darussalam very firmly on the world map.

03 34th SLIT.indd 14

7/8/14 12:51 PM

15

His Majesty’s diplomatic initiatives have won the respect of the international community, helping to raise the status of Brunei Darussalam worldwide. In 2013, Brunei Darussalam assumed the Chair of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in which His Majesty was actively involved in the regional and international fora promoting peace, stability, promoting awareness among the people of ASEAN especially the youth, and also committed to the ASEAN spirit and its Charter. That summit provided one of the proudest and most prestigious landmarks in Brunei Darussalam’s history, confirming the nation’s status as a growing influence in the region and showcasing the economic progress made under His Majesty. His Majesty’s sense of responsibility for his people extends beyond the ordinary. As the head of the Islamic faith in Brunei Darussalam, His Majesty is steadfast in his conviction that he is ultimately responsible for his people now as well as in the hereafter and has re-introduced the implementation of Syariah Laws in Brunei Darussalam. By the will of God, Brunei Darussalam will remain as the Abode of Peace.

03 34th SLIT.indd 15

7/8/14 12:51 PM

THE SINGAPORE LECTURE SERIES

Inaugural Singapore Lecture 14 October 1980 The Invisible Hand in Economics and Politics by MILTON FRIEDMAN 2nd Singapore Lecture 30 October 1981 American Foreign Policy: A Global View by HENRY KISSINGER 3rd Singapore Lecture 2 December 1982 Peace and East-West Relations by GISCARD D’ESTAING 4th Singapore Lecture 10 November 1983 The Soviet Union: Challenges and Responses as Seen from the European Point of View by HELMUT SCHMIDT 5th Singapore Lecture 8 November 1984 The Western Alliance: Its Future and Its Implications for Asia by JOSEPH M.A.H. LUNS 6th Singapore Lecture 5 December 1985 Deficits, Debts, and Demographics: Three Fundamentals Affecting Our Long-Term Economic Future by PETER G. PETERSON

04 34th SLIT.indd 16

7/8/14 12:57 PM

17

7th Singapore Lecture 25 November 1986 Trends in the International Financial System by RAYMOND BARRE 8th Singapore Lecture 27 November 1987 The Challenge of Change in the Asia-Pacific Region by BOB HAWKE

9th Singapore Lecture 14 December 1988 Regionalism, Globalism and Spheres of Influence: ASEAN and the Challenge of Change into the 21st Century by MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD

10th Singapore Lecture 15 October 1989 Trade Outlook: Globalization or Regionalization by BRIAN MULRONEY

11th Singapore Lecture 3 April 1991 International Economic Developments by R.F.M. LUBBERS 12th Singapore Lecture 4 January 1992 U.S. Policy in the Asia-Pacific Region: Meeting the Challenges of the Post Cold-War Era by GEORGE BUSH

04 34th SLIT.indd 17

7/8/14 12:57 PM

18

13th Singapore Lecture 8 September 1994 India and the Asia-Pacific: Forging a New Relationship by P.V. NARASIMHA RAO

14th Singapore Lecture 17 January 1996 Australia, Asia and the New Regionalism by PAUL KEATING

15th Singapore Lecture 14 January 1997 Reforms for the New Era of Japan and ASEAN: For a Broader and Deeper Partnership by RYUTARO HASHIMOTO

16th Singapore Lecture 6 March 1997 South and Southern Africa into the Next Century by NELSON R. MANDELA

17th Singapore Lecture 30 November 1999 China and Asia in the New Century by ZHU RONGJI

18th Singapore Lecture 14 February 2000 Global Values: The United Nations and the Rule of Law in the 21st Century by Kofi A. Annan

04 34th SLIT.indd 18

7/8/14 12:57 PM

19

19th Singapore Lecture 27 November 2000 Peace on the Korean Peninsula and East Asia by KIM DAE-JUNG 20th Singapore Lecture 14 January 2002 Japan and ASEAN in East Asia: A Sincere and Open Partnership by JUNICHIRO KOIZUMI 21st Singapore Lecture 9 April 2002 India’s Perspectives on ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific Region by ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE 22nd Singapore Lecture 6 July 2002 EU-Asia: Sharing Diversity in an Inter-regional Partnership by ROMANO PRODI 23rd Singapore Lecture 13 May 2003 Investments into the Future: State and Economy at the Beginning of the 21st Century by GERHARD SCHRÖDER 24th Singapore Lecture 30 April 2004 Global Challenges in the 21st Century: A View from Chile by Ricardo Lagos 25th Singapore Lecture 16 February 2005 Indonesia: The Challenge of Change by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

04 34th SLIT.indd 19

7/8/14 12:57 PM

20

26th Singapore Lecture 21 April 2005 Africa’s Season of Hope: The Dawn of a New Africa-Asia Partnership by thabo mvuyelwa mbeki 27th Singapore Lecture 1 February 2006 Evolution of Enlightened Societies by A.P.J. ABDUL KALAM 28th Singapore Lecture 11 April 2006 Opportunities and Challenges for Asian-Arabian Ties by suLtan bin abdul aziz al-sAud 29th Singapore Lecture 12 August 2008 Building on ASEAN’s Success: Towards an Asia-Pacific Community by kevin rudd 30th Singapore Lecture 23 October 2009 Towards New Global Partnerships: Economics, Governance, Values by JAN PETER BALKENENDE 31st Singapore Lecture 2 June 2011 by ANGELA MERKEL 32nd Singapore Lecture 13 March 2012 The Importance of Governance for Sustainable Developments by HELEN CLARK

04 34th SLIT.indd 20

7/8/14 12:57 PM

21

33rd Singapore Lecture 26 July 2013 by SHINZO ABE 34th Singapore Lecture 22 April 2014 The Future of ASEAN by HIS MAJESTY SULTAN HAJI HASSANAL BOLKIAH MU’IZZADDIN WADDAULAH

04 34th SLIT.indd 21

7/8/14 12:57 PM