Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities 9781781904763, 9781781904756

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SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT FOR CHINESE CITIES

TRANSPORT AND SUSTAINABILITY Series Editors: Stephen Ison and Jon Shaw Recent Volumes: Volume 1: Cycling and Sustainability – Edited by John Parkin Volume 2: Transport and Climate Change – Edited by Tim Ryley and Lee Chapman

TRANSPORT AND SUSTAINABILITY VOLUME 3

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT FOR CHINESE CITIES EDITED BY

ROGER L. MACKETT University College London, London, UK

ANTHONY D. MAY University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

MASANOBU KII Kagawa University, Takamatsu, Kagawa, Japan

HAIXIAO PAN Tongji University Shanghai, China

United Kingdom – North America – Japan India – Malaysia – China

Emerald Group Publishing Limited Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK First edition 2013 Copyright r 2013 Emerald Group Publishing Limited Reprints and permission service Contact: [email protected] No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying issued in the UK by The Copyright Licensing Agency and in the USA by The Copyright Clearance Center. Any opinions expressed in the chapters are those of the authors. Whilst Emerald makes every effort to ensure the quality and accuracy of its content, Emerald makes no representation implied or otherwise, as to the chapters’ suitability and application and disclaims any warranties, express or implied, to their use. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-1-78190-475-6 ISSN: 2044-9941 (Series)

CONTENTS LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

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SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION AND THE GLOBAL AND CHINESE CONTEXT CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Anthony D. MAY, Yoshitsugu HAYASHI, Masanobu KII, Roger L. MACKETT and Haixiao PAN

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CHAPTER 2 PROJECTING GLOBAL URBANIZATION AND THE GROWTH OF MEGACITIES Masanobu KII and Kenji DOI

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CHAPTER 3 IMPLEMENTING SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRAVEL POLICIES IN CHINA Haixiao PAN

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SECTION 2: APPROACHES TO POLICY FORMULATION CHAPTER 4 THE THREE STAGES OF ACCESSIBILITY: THE COMING CHALLENGE OF URBAN MOBILITY Yves CROZET

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CHAPTER 5 THE DEVELOPMENT OF GREEN SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION IN CHINA Jie ZHAO

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CHAPTER 6 MANAGING URBAN MOBILITY SYSTEMS THROUGH A CROSS-ASSESSMENT MODEL WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF LAND-USE AND TRANSPORT INTEGRATION Kenji DOI and Masanobu KII

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CHAPTER 7 DELIVERING A MORE SUSTAINABLE URBAN ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TRANSPORT POLICY PACKAGES Anthony D. MAY

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CHAPTER 8 DELIVERING TRANSPORT POLICY CHANGE IN CHINA: LESSONS FROM THE UK Joe KENDAL, Marcus ENOCH and Stephen ISON

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SECTION 3: TRAFFIC AND PASSENGER TRANSPORT CHAPTER 9 A 5D LAND-USE TRANSPORT MODEL FOR A HIGH DENSITY, RAPIDLY GROWING CITY Haixiao PAN

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CHAPTER 10 REDUCING CAR USE IN URBAN AREAS Roger L. MACKETT

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CHAPTER 11 CONTEXTUAL REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE EXAMPLE OF CHINA Wolfgang SCHADE, Fabian KLEY, Jonathan KO¨HLER and Anja PETERS CHAPTER 12 THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE BUS RAPID TRANSIT IN XIAMEN CITY JingWei BIAN and Ming DING

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CHAPTER 13 THE INTEGRATION OF THE CONNECTION BETWEEN LAND USE AND TRAFFIC SURROUNDING RAIL TRANSIT STATIONS: THE CASE OF NANJING Wei CAO and Linbo QIAN

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SECTION 4: FREIGHT AND LOGISTICS CHAPTER 14 LOGISTICS AND THE CITY: THE KEY ISSUE OF FREIGHT VILLAGES Xiaoming LIU and Michel SAVY

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CHAPTER 15 EFFICIENT GREEN LOGISTICS IN URBAN AREAS: MILK RUN LOGISTICS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY Toshinori NEMOTO and Werner ROTHENGATTER

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CHAPTER 16 THE CHALLENGES AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ROAD FREIGHT IN SHANGHAI Rong ZHANG, Jing FAN and Feng-yuan ZHU

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SECTION 5: CONCLUSIONS CHAPTER 17 CONCLUSIONS Anthony D. MAY, Masanobu KII, Roger L. MACKETT and Haixiao PAN

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS

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SUBJECT INDEX

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LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS JingWei BIAN

Xiamen Municipal People’s Congress Urban Construction Environment and Resources Committee, Xiamen, Fujian Province, China

Wei CAO

Nanjing Institute of City and Transport Planning Co. Ltd., Nanjing, China

Yves CROZET

Laboratory of Transport Economics, University of Lyon, Lyon, France

Ming DING

Xiamen Urban Planning and Design Institute, Xiamen, Fujian Province, China

Kenji DOI

Department of Global Architecture, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

Marcus ENOCH

Transport Studies Group, School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire, Great Britain

Jing FAN

School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China

Yoshitsugu HAYASHI

Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Furo-Cho Chikusa-Ku, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan

Stephen ISON

Transport Studies Group, School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire, Great Britain

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LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

Joe KENDAL

Transport Studies Group, School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire, Great Britain

Masanobu KII

Faculty of Engineering, Kagawa University, Takamatsu, Kagawa, Japan

Fabian KLEY

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Karlsruhe, Germany

Jonathan KO¨HLER

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Karlsruhe, Germany

Xiaoming LIU

Sino-French Centre for Urban and Regional Planning Studies, University of Paris-East, IUP, Creteil Cedex, France

Roger L. MACKETT

Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, London, Great Britain

Anthony D. MAY

Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, Great Britain

Toshinori NEMOTO

Graduate School of Commerce and Management, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo, Japan

Haixiao PAN

Department of Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai, China

Anja PETERS

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Karlsruhe, Germany

Linbo QIAN

Nanjing Institute of City & Transport Planning Co. Ltd., Nanjing, China

Werner ROTHENGATTER

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

Michel SAVY

Sino-French Centre for Urban and Regional Planning Studies, University of Paris – East, IUP, Creteil Cedex, France

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List of Contributors

Wolfgang SCHADE

Business Area Transportation Systems, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Karlsruhe, Germany

Rong ZHANG

School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China

Jie ZHAO

China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Beijing, China

Feng-yuan ZHU

School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China

SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION AND THE GLOBAL AND CHINESE CONTEXT

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Anthony D. MAY, Yoshitsugu HAYASHI, Masanobu KII, Roger L. MACKETT and Haixiao PAN INTRODUCTION This book brings together a number of the papers presented at a workshop hosted by Tongji University, Shanghai, on the implications of green urban transport in China under the auspices of the World Conference on Transport Research Society in September 2010. It is in five sections. Section 1 includes this introductory chapter, which summarises the content of the rest of the book, Chapter 2 is on trends in city size, and Chapter 3 provides an overview of Chinese transport policy. Section 2 considers approaches to policy formulation, drawing on experience in Europe and Asia. Section 3 focuses on passenger transport and traffic, while Section 4 covers freight and logistics. Section 5 draws together the principal conclusions of the 15 papers.

THE GLOBAL CONTEXT In 2010 the world’s population stood at 6.9 billion, with 3.5 billion living in urban areas. By 2050 it is forecast that there will be 6.9 billion living in urban areas, accounting for 70% of the global population (UNFPA, 2007).

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 3–15 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003003

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By 2050 Africa and Asia will have well over half their populations living in urban areas. The most developed nations will have urbanisation rates as high as 90%. The reasons for these trends include population growth, particularly in the developing world, and migration from the countryside to wealthier urban areas, coupled with a shift from agriculture to industry and commerce. Not only are more people living in cities, but also the largest cities are getting larger. In 1975 there were only five cities with populations in excess of 10 million. By 2010 there were 26, of which three, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai, are in China. Projecting trends in city size is a complicated process, as is illustrated in Chapter 2. In their analysis, Kii and Doi estimate that there may be as many as 17 such megacities in China by 2050. Even so, as the UN report on urbanisation (UNFPA, 2007) notes, the bulk of urban population growth is likely to be in smaller cities, whose capabilities for planning and implementation can be particularly weak. One of the major challenges of these growing cities is the provision of adequate access, without letting the private car dominate. This is made more difficult by the trend in car ownership, which is rising rapidly in the developing world. Nowhere is this more apparent than in China where, as Pan notes in Chapter 3, car ownership rose from around 1 million in 1994 to 8.5 million in 2000 and 61.2 million in 2010. At the same time, most cities are expanding through the process of urban sprawl, which imposes longer journeys, which in turn reinforce the use of the car. Given these trends, Dargay (2002) has predicted a six-fold increase in vehicle-kilometres in Asia between 2000 and 2025. While growing motorisation brings benefits to users, it also contributes to a growing number of inter-connected problems. The most immediate is congestion, which restricts economic activity, reduces the effectiveness of public transport, limits accessibility and adds to pollution. High traffic flows on poorly designed roads contribute to accidents, which are often most serious for vulnerable road users on foot and bicycle. It seems inevitable that the scale of these problems will grow even more rapidly than the population in developing cities (May & Marsden, 2010) and that they will impinge disproportionately on the lives of the poorest city dwellers, who will have the least access to cars. These are the problems to be faced by individual cities and their administrations in planning their transport strategies and systems. As the UN notes (UNFPA, 2007), the smallest cities are likely to find this particularly difficult, but even the largest cities can learn from experience elsewhere in the world. The advice offered by the international community has elements

Introduction

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both of altruism – a desire to help others – and of self-interest – the opportunity to profit from growing cities’ investments. But there is a third, and increasingly pressing, reason – the need to tackle climate change and, in particular, the growing proportion of carbon emissions which is generated by urban transport. These considerations contributed to the decision of Tongji University to host the workshop on the implications of green urban transport in China, under the auspices of the World Conference on Transport Research Society in September 2010. The Society’s principal objectives are to stimulate the interchange of research in all aspects of transport from all parts of the world, and to encourage the transfer of research into policy and practice (http://www.wctrs.org). Much of its detailed work is conducted through special interest groups, one of which, on transport and the environment, has taken the lead in advocating policy initiatives on transport and climate change, as described more fully below. The Shanghai workshop was organised by five of the Society’s special interest groups, on transport and land use, transport in developing countries, urban freight, urban transport policy and transport and the environment. This book brings together a number of the papers presented there, by both Chinese and international authors.

THE CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE The transport sector contributed 23% of global CO2 emissions in 2007. These CO2 emissions from the transport sector had grown by 37% from 1997 to 2007, and are predicted to continue growing, thus contravening the targets for emission reductions agreed in COP3 in Kyoto. Among regions, Asia is predicted to experience the most rapid growth in emissions from transport. According to the forecast by IEA (2004), China, India and other Asian developing countries are expected to have an 18-fold growth in car ownership from 2007 to 2050. Car ownership in 2010 in China, India and the other Asian developing countries was 121 million cars, or 15% of the global total, but is predicted to reach 1,937 million cars (or 61% of the world total) in 2050. As it will be almost impossible to construct 18 times more road space, much more serious congestion is likely to occur, further accelerating CO2 emissions. The transport sector, therefore, needs to take greater responsibility for climate change, and particular attention needs to be given to China and other Asian countries. This has been a specific focus of the work of the World Conference on Transport Research Society’s

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Special Interest Group 11 on Transport and the Environment (Rothengatter, Hayashi, & Schade, 2011; WCTRS, 2011). We draw on its work in the remainder of this section. In UNFCCC negotiations, developing countries have tended to argue that developed countries are the main contributors to global warming, and that there is little case for developing countries to take action until developed countries have done so. The WCTRS report takes a different view, arguing that both developed and developing countries need to take action now, but that the remedies should be different. It recommends a Sharp Reduction strategy for transport emissions from developed countries, and a Leap-Frog strategy for developing countries. While the Sharp Reduction strategy involves a combination of measures which would dramatically change current trends in developed countries, the Leap-Frog strategy encourages developing countries to avoid past trends in motorisation and urban sprawl which have aggravated emissions, and instead ‘‘Leap-Frog’’ to a position in which the measures advocated in developed countries can be more readily implemented. Both strategies draw on the same range of policy measures, which were set out in an earlier WCTRS report (Nakamura, Hayashi, & May, 2004). That report developed a matrix of mitigation options (the CUTE Matrix), consisting of three strategies for low-carbon transport: avoid (reduce transport demand), shift (reduce emissions per unit transported) and improve (reduce emissions per kilometre). Each strategy involves four types of instrument: technological, regulatory, informational and economic. The avoid strategy includes instruments such as compact cities, transit-oriented development and road pricing to reduce the number and length of journeys. The shift strategy includes integrated public transport, intermodal freight transport, bus and tram priorities, awareness campaigns, walking and cycling and taxes to reduce car dependency. The improve strategy focuses particularly on vehicle design and fuel sources, but also includes better management of traffic systems. As an example of the potential of a Sharp Reduction strategy in EU member countries, Geurs, Nijland and van Ruijven (2011) has estimated the effects of low-carbon fuels, efficiency improvements in vehicles and logistics and modal shift on carbon reductions in different sectors between 1990 and 2050. For passenger transport by road and rail the reduction was 92%; for freight transport by road, rail and water 63%; and for domestic and intra EU aviation 15%, giving a reduction for the total transport sector of 76%. As an example of a Leap-Frog policy in developing countries, Nakamura Hayashi and Kato (2012) assessed the requirements for Bangkok. They

Introduction

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concluded that a single strategy would not be effective enough to achieve a Leap-Frog outcome, but that a combination of the three CUTE strategies would be very useful. They used a back-casting analysis to estimate the necessary combinations of the three strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in Bangkok by 70% from 2005 to 2050, requiring a 49 Mt/y reduction. This could be achieved by a 22 Mt/y reduction through avoid measures, 9 Mt/y by shift measures and 18 Mt/y by improve measures. Avoid policies assumed development would be controlled to allow only 8.8% urban expansion from 2010 against the expected 35% expansion. Shift policies assumed construction of 2,791 km of new rail transit lines: similar in scale to the current Tokyo network and 5.5 times the existing plan for 2030. Improve policies assumed technological progress in engines and fuel and increased use of electric and hybrid vehicles. Bangkok serves as a useful warning of the catastrophic effects of rapid motorisation. Bangkok took only five years for car ownership to rise from 150 cars per 1,000 inhabitants in 1990, with a per capita income level of US$3,000, to 250 in 1995 at US$5,000. According to a local survey in 1992, 10% of workers in Bangkok spent more than 8 hours a day for commuting (JICA, 1996). In Tokyo, by contrast, car ownership started to stabilise at its level of 150 cars per 1,000 inhabitants in 1975 at a per capita income level of US$ 4,000 and took twenty years to reach 250 cars per 1,000 inhabitants in 1995 at US$46,000 (Hayashi, 1996). One reason for these inappropriate policies is the impact of current financing regimes for developing countries. The Official Development Assistance (ODA), an inter-governmental grant from developed countries to developing countries, is the largest financing resource. However, ODA projects are based on proposals from the recipient developing countries and the majority of transport proposals focus on the improvement of roads, which are likely to increase emissions of CO2 and local pollutants. The WCTRS SIG11 team has proposed instead the concept of a ‘Green ODA’, which requires proof that the requested project is the best in reducing CO2. More specifically, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was developed, following the Kyoto protocol, to help developing countries to adopt less carbon-intensive strategies. CDM has been used to finance urban public transit systems such as the TransMilenio BRT system in Bogota´, Colombia and the Delhi Metro in India. However, among the roundly 4,000 CDM projects authorised by 2011, only seven have been transport projects; the majority have focused on energy conversion. A major barrier is the criterion of the United Nations evaluation board, which requires a precise forecast of CO2 reduction. Such a precise assessment is often difficult for

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transport projects, given the lack of experience with them in the recipient countries. The WCTRS SIG11 team have proposed a CDM compensation fund, which would give some flexibility in emission reduction targets to individual projects, while still achieving targeted reductions for the CDM programme as a whole. These considerations provided the global context within which the Shanghai workshop focused on the opportunities for achieving lower emission transport strategies in Chinese cities. It is clear that China should adopt a Leap-Frog strategy, and it is hoped that the proposed Green ODA and CDM Compensation Fund will enable it and other rapidly developing countries to secure financial support for such a strategy.

THE CHINESE CONTEXT As Pan notes in Chapter 3, the speed and scale of urbanisation in China has never been experienced before in human history. It is estimated that there will be 300 million more urban dwellers by 2030. Economic growth has been the top priority in the Chinese government’s agenda for many years. With the experience in developed countries, the car industry has been established as one of the pillar industries by the central government in China, resulting in rapid motorisation not only in mega cities, but also in small- and medium-sized ones. The total number of passenger vehicles increased from 8.5 million in 2000 to 61.2 million in 2010. Meanwhile, people have increasingly complained about congestion. City governments have committed themselves to policies to control serious congestion in the mega cities. During the 1990s they focused on major road infrastructure construction to facilitate car driving. But congestion became much worse. Driving speeds in Shanghai and Beijing fell to less than 15 km/h in the rush hour. As a result of growing car use and worsening congestion, emissions from motorised vehicles are now the major contributor to air pollution. People have gradually begun to recognise the importance not only of the quantity of urbanisation, but also of the quality of life in the city. Local government’s vision and motivation is the key factor in achieving enhanced quality of life in Chinese cities. As an example, in Shanghai, the auction of entitlements to purchase a car, exclusion of cars without Shanghai local licences from the elevated motorways in the peak and higher parking costs have resulted in car ownership being much lower than in Beijing, even though Shanghai is larger in population and higher in average income. The

Introduction

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free lottery car plate allocation system introduced in 2011 in Beijing promises to be an equally dramatic urban transport policy change. This is also the signal to adopt car control policy nationwide to improve urban environmental quality. As Zhao notes in Chapter 8, government is the major player in implementing a public transport priority policy, with metro networks of around 1,000 km planned for Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. In Shanghai the metro carries 5–6 million passengers each day, but because of the high cost of construction and operation, central government permission for construction can be slow to obtain. Hence the development of the metro system will remain far behind the rate of growth in motorisation. Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) is considered to be a less expensive and more immediate alternative to metro in providing high-quality public transport services. Following the introduction of BRT in Beijing, by 2011 thirteen cities had established their own BRT systems with a total length of 350 km (Fjellstrom, 2011). But most of the systems have a relatively low operational speed at 21 km/h in Beijing and only 14 km/h in Hangzhou. To guarantee speed and save land, Xiamen city opened the first elevated BRT system in China running at the higher speed of 27 km/h with 200,000 passengers daily, as described more fully by Bian and Ding in Chapter 12. Because of the lack of coordination of land use around rapid transit stations, metro patronage is often far lower than projected on the other sections of metro lines. Cao and Qian, in Chapter 13, stress the importance of land-use density control during metro network planning. The Xiamen BRT system (Chapter 12) provides an example of mixed development at stations. Walking and bicycle have been neglected as modes of transport in the last twenty years. To facilitate car driving, or to attract bicycle riders to public transport, many cities have taken measures to control the use of bicycle, and have narrowed walkways. But there is still a high share of these slow modes in Shanghai and other cities, due to the high density and mixed land use. These environmentally friendly slow modes are often the most efficient way to travel. That is why the concept of the public bicycle system is now spreading across China. Pan, in Chapter 9, argues that priority should be given to walking and cycling. While much of the focus in Chinese cities has been on passenger transport, freight is also vital. Economic development in the Yangtze Delta region is heavily dependent on the input-export industry and the national strategy to encourage development of shipping with deep sea container terminals. These need to be coordinated with the logistics system, especially

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water–water, water–rail transfer and last mile delivery, to improve the efficiency of freight distribution efficiency. Zhang et al., in Chapter 16, discusses the application of such policies in Shanghai.

APPROACHES TO POLICY FORMULATION China is not alone in focusing on the automotive industry, road building and urban expansion in the early stages of its transport strategy. In Chapter 4, Crozet describes the three stages of accessibility as they applied in the city of Lyon in France. The first focused on improving speed through emphasis on the car and road building, but paradoxically led to urban sprawl and increasing congestion. The second targeted increased population density and reliability, by giving priority to public transport enhancements, particularly through new tramways. The third has focused directly on land-use planning to facilitate greater use of public transport, walking and cycling, while managing car use. Crozet draws interesting parallels between the Lyon experience and that in Beijing and Shanghai, and suggests that Shanghai’s regulations on the growth of car ownership offer an early application of the third stage of accessibility. In Chapter 5, Zhao develops these arguments further. He reiterates the findings of Chapter 3 that energy, environmental and land availability concerns are increasing pressure on the government to seek alternatives to continued rapid growth in car ownership and use. He argues for an integrated approach, which focuses on public transport, walking and cycling, and land-use planning to reinforce the use of these modes. He suggests that investment should focus on rail and BRT, and that fares should be managed in the interest of equity. However, he is concerned that many smaller cities are unaware of these arguments and the potential of such policies. Like Pan in Chapter 3, he sees the need for a collaborative agreement between national government, city governments and local communities. Doi and Kii, in Chapter 6, offer an analytical tool to help in such collaborative agreements. They note that cities have three competing objectives of efficiency, equity and the environment, and that different stakeholders will place different values on these three objectives. The authors see the need for a greater emphasis on consensus-led planning, which reflects these different values, and offer a cross-assessment model which achieves this using a combination of a Land Use Transport Interaction (LUTI) model and a multi-criteria appraisal routine. They illustrate the model by application to a

Introduction

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wide range of Japanese cities. This application demonstrates the importance of public transport and compact city development and shows that such strategies, designed to minimise CO2 emissions, can achieve improvements in terms of all three objectives. It also, interestingly, indicates that the trade-offs between stakeholder interests are different in small and large cities. These examples, based on the ageing and declining population of Japanese cities, may not be directly relevant to China’s rapidly growing cities, but Doi and Kii suggest policy implications which are transferable. May, in Chapter 7, describes two further analytical tools which are of potential value to Chinese cities. The first, a knowledgebase of policy instruments, could well help to overcome the gaps in knowledge which Zhao identifies in smaller Chinese cities in Chapter 5. The second, a policy optimising method, also uses a LUTI model, but couples it with an optimising routine which can reflect cities’ differing objectives and constraints. May presents the results of applications of this second tool in European cities. Once again they show the key role of public transport improvements, coupled with pricing of car use, better management of the road network and, potentially, walking, cycling and awareness campaigns to promote green transport. Importantly, their findings indicate that infrastructure investment is rarely a cost-effective element in such strategies. European cities are much more fully developed than those in China, and are growing at a much less rapid pace. May discusses the extent to which their findings are transferable to China, while noting that their decision-support tools could well be of assistance. Finally in this section, Kendal et al., in Chapter 8, explore the constraints on the implementation of such policies of political will and public acceptability. They assess experience in the United Kingdom with both strategic and tactical changes in policy: the ‘new realism’ of the 1990s and the pursuit of road pricing in the last decade. Both have had a chequered history, with initial enthusiasm reinforced by growing awareness of problems and underpinning research, but subsequent backtracking once public anxieties emerged. They suggest three agents which can help ensure that policy changes do in practice take place: public and political acceptance that problems do need addressing, the emergence of policy proposals which are effective in addressing those problems, and unforeseen events which stimulate change. They find that unforeseen events are at least as likely to thwart as to encourage policy change, but note that visionary policies, led by political champions, can overcome such pressures. Once again, they draw parallels for China. They suggest that the growing concerns with car use, energy and the environment offer an agent of change, and that there is now

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a sufficient range of suitable policy options, but that action is needed soon while motorisation levels are still relatively low.

TRAFFIC AND PASSENGER TRANSPORT In the 1990s the central government of China introduced a car industry promotion policy and urban planners increased the capacity of the urban road system by building more urban expressways as Pan discusses in Chapter 9. Building urban expressways did not improve urban mobility because of congestion. In fact, the car-dependent cities in China spread out, leading to further car use. An issue specific to China is the one child policy which means that many elderly people will need to be independently mobile in pedestrianfriendly environments in urban areas. Cycling has been very prevalent in the past but it is now often seen as outdated and only for short trips. In this chapter Pan argues that priority needs to be given to pedestrians in cities in China, then bicycles, then public transport and then the car, with land use and transport policies used to encourage this order of priority. The other chapters in this section consider ways in which cities in China can be developed so that the car is not so dominant. Mackett, in Chapter 10, considers ways in which car use can be reduced in urban areas, using examples from Britain. He identifies the aspects of the car that make it the mode of choice for many people while pointing out the disbenefits it brings. He then looks at the political difficulties in trying to reduce car use, and considers a set of methods that can be used such as charging for road use, parking control, fuel pricing and using land-use planning. He points out the lack of evidence on the effectiveness of measures, and suggests that it is necessary to move away from the concept of individual households owning cars to a system of renting, so that the full user cost of travelling by car is paid for on each trip. Given that cars will continue to be used in urban areas there is a strong case for them to be electric as Schade et al. discuss in Chapter 11. They consider the various types of technology and the problems of acceptability. They discuss the environmental implications, suggesting that, because of the use of coal to generate much of the electricity in China, there could be more atmospheric pollution if electric vehicles are adopted widely. They review the different diffusion paths in developed and developing countries, with manufacturers in the former concentrating on four-seater vehicles while in developing countries the vehicles are smaller, with users starting with electric bicycles and then moving to slightly larger vehicles.

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To complement the policies on car use, it is important to innovate with public transport. As mentioned above, a good example is the BRT system in Xiamen City described in Chapter 12 by Bian and Ding. Because light rapid transit (LRT) could not be built, the decision was taken to develop a BRT system that could be upgraded to LRT at a later date. They outline the strategy used to make it successful and to achieve a doubling in patronage in the two years after opening. They also refer to the operational difficulties when vehicles break down and the noise nuisance created. Finally they suggest that accelerating commercial development at hub stations could help to cover the operating losses being made. A methodology for increasing commercial development at stations is the theme of Chapter 13 by Cao and Qian. The methodology involves identifying the density, land use and transport connection requirements by defining some criteria for planning around metro stations and then considering the function of the stations and of the land use around such stations. They demonstrate the application of the methodology to the planning of Metro Line 2 in Nanjing.

FREIGHT AND LOGISTICS Freight transport is also a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions from transport but its operating characteristics are very different from passenger transport, and there is a more limited understanding of the requirements for improving its impacts on climate change. Strategies will differ by type of commodity, characterised by factors such as weight, size, monetary value, fragility and perishability. Moreover, the freight and logistics system typically involves several agents such as the shipper, operator, planner and infrastructure provider. As a result, decision making in freight transport may be more segmented and complicated than in passenger transport. Chapter 14 by Liu and Savy provides an overview of freight villages, which are industrial parks mainly devoted to logistic activities. Freight villages, called logistic centres in the United States, are recognised as a key element in the broader logistics process; however, there is little scientific literature devoted to them. Liu and Savy provide definitions and concepts of freight villages, processes and stakeholders, advantages compared to dispersed logistics activities and suitable locations. Recent activities in the development of freight villages in Europe and China are also introduced. As a result, they conclude that freight villages can contribute to improving the efficiency of logistics but that there are various obstacles to their development.

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Chapter 15 by Nemoto and Rothengatter analyses the potential of milk run logistics and introduces its application in the automotive industry. The milk run is a form of logistics distribution under the condition of multiple pick-up and delivery points and a fixed schedule. The method provides optimal regional tours and vehicle size and equipment to maximise the efficiency of vehicle stocks which leads to reductions in the costs and environmental load of freight transport. Three applications of milk run logistics in the automobile industry are introduced in this chapter including improving the loading factor of milk run delivery, integration with rail in logistics chains and system wide integration of milk runs and main runs. Their impacts on the efficiency of truck usage and on CO2 emission reduction are indicated to be substantial. On this basis Nemoto and Rothengatter argue that milk run logistics have the potential to improve the efficiency of overall logistics systems. Finally, they provide the perspective of the application of milk run logistics in the Chinese automotive industry and demonstrate the substantial potential savings in environmental and human resources. In Chapter 16, Zhang et al. summarise the current state of road freight transport in Shanghai, identify the existing problems and address policy recommendations. Shanghai is facing a rapid increase in freight transport demand, growing dependence on road freight transport, fragmented and inefficient freight markets and shortage of public freight terminals. The authors demonstrate that these problems lead to low-level services and inadequate supply of high-level value added services, as well as environmental problems. To alleviate the problems, they recommend transport policies including the optimisation of feeder transport to and from Shanghai port, the development of road freight terminals, a strengthened urban logistics system, an improved regulatory scheme, encouragement to build a strong road freight market and better information systems and statistics for freight transport.

CONCLUSIONS Trends in urban transport are unsustainable, particularly in the largest cities which, as Chapter 2 demonstrates, are expected to increase dramatically in number over the next few decades, and in the most rapidly developing countries, such as China, whose current policies are outlined in Chapter 3. The remainder of this book considers approaches to policy formulation, and examples of good practice in both passenger and freight transport. We draw a number of key conclusions in the book’s final chapter.

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REFERENCES Dargay, J. (2002). Road vehicles: Future growth in developed and developing countries. Proceedings of the institution of civil engineers: Municipal engineer, 15(1), 3–12. Fjellstrom, K. (2011). Bus rapid transit development in China. Urban Transport of China, 9(4), 30–39. Geurs, K., Nijland, H., & van Ruijven, B. (2011). Getting into the right lane for low-carbon transport in the EU. In W. Rothengatter, Y. Hayashi & W. Schade (Eds.), Transport moving to climate intelligence (pp. 53–72). New York, NY: Springer. Hayashi, Y. (1996). Economic development and its influence on the environment – urbanization, infrastructure and land-use planning systems. In Y. Hayashi & J. R. Roy (Eds.), Transport, land use and the environment (pp. 3–25). Dordrecht: Kluwer. IEA. (2004). IEA/SMP model documentation and reference case projection. Retrieved from http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data-providers-and-partners/http-www.wbcsd. org-web-publications-mobility.pdf JICA. (1996). Bangkok integrated railway and development system: Advanced and comfortable commuting with express and safe service (BIRD ACCESS). Seminar on the Integration of Future Railway Transport and Urban Development, Bangkok. May, A.D., & Marsden, G. (2010). Urban transport and mobility. Forum Paper 5. International Transport Forum. OECD, Paris. Nakamura, H., Hayashi, Y., & May, A. D. (2004). Urban transport and the environment – an international perspective. Oxford: Elsevier. Nakamura, K., Hayashi, Y., & Kato, H. (2012). A backcasting approach to designing lowcarbon urban transport systems for Asian developing cities; application to Bangkok. Proceedings of the 91st annual meeting of Transportation Research Board, N.A.S., Washington D C. Rothengatter, W., Hayashi, Y., & Schade, W. (2011). Transport moving to climate intelligence – new chances for controlling climate impacts of transport after the economic crisis. New York, NY: Springer. UNFPA (2007). State of world population 2007: Unleashing the potential of urban growth. United Nations Population Fund. Retrieved from http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2007 WCTRS. (2011). Putting transport into the climate policy agenda – recommendations from WCTRS to COP17. Retrieved from http://www.sustrac.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp/en/

CHAPTER 2 PROJECTING GLOBAL URBANIZATION AND THE GROWTH OF MEGACITIES Masanobu KII and Kenji DOI ABSTRACT Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to project the global emergence of megacities through the 21st century using population scenarios consistent with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Methodology – A dynamic urban growth model is developed based on a scale-independent theory of growing networks taking into consideration the geographical and climatic suitability of the location of cities. The model is able to generate a series of megacity projections consistent with an experimental city size distribution based on a national urban population scenario consistent with Zipf’s law. The model is applied to population projections for 45,316 cities around the world using three population scenarios from SRES. Findings – All of the projections indicate that a large number of megacities will be generated in developing regions towards 2100, although the range is wide and depends on the population assumed in the scenarios. Some results indicate an extreme population concentration in megacities;

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 17–42 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003004

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this might be undesirable for national security, quality of life, and sustainable development. Transport policies affect urban growth and national land development through changes in mobility and accessibility across the nation. Implications – The results presented in this chapter could serve to stimulate discussions on urban and national transport policies and planning, particularly in China. Keywords: Global urbanization; megacities; Zipf’s law; complex network theory

INTRODUCTION According to population statistics and projections by the United Nations (2008), the share of the population in urban areas, which was 30% in the 1950s, is now 50% and expected to reach 70% in 2050. The importance of cities as fields of human activity is increasing, and long-term scenarios have to be addressed from the perspective of both sustainable development and climate change. Population is one of the dominant factors in understanding urban conditions, and its prospective growth provides basic information about the need for urban development or control, the possible impact of urban activities on the environment, the necessary mitigation actions, and policies for adaptation to climate change. Therefore, projection of the geographical distribution of the urban population is essential for policy making in relation to long-term sustainable development and global warming problems. Various studies have estimated the long-term spatial distribution of the population over the globe (Asadoorian, 2008; Gaffin, Rosenzweig, Xing, & Yetman, 2004; Gru¨bler et al., 2007; Hilderink, 2006). These estimates have been based on a grid system in which the global land area is divided into a mesh, and the population distribution is estimated by downscaling the given regional or national urban populations. However, there are no established methods for this downscaling, and each study assumed an adhoc allocation function for the population. For instance, Gru¨bler et al. tried to downscale the future regional population consistent with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) using a 0.51  0.51 global land grid system. In this study, grid population grows at an increasing rate as the population of the previous period increases. This reflects the population

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concentration in large cities, but these projections do not necessarily reproduce the well-known experimental city size distribution, that is the rank-size rule or Zipf’s law (Zipf, 1949). The rank-size rule is an empirical law for city size distribution; it follows a Pareto distribution. In an early study by Simon (1955), the rank-size rule was shown to be derived from a simple random growth model, where the growth probability of a city is proportional to its share of the total population. The model theoretically generates a class of city size distribution that includes the rank-size rule. However, it only provides the theoretical grounds for an aggregated city size distribution and requires Monte-Carlo experiments to estimate the growth of each city; this would lead to sets of results that are quite different from each other, even though their aggregated distributions are stable. Recently, complex network theories have provided other approaches, leading to a Pareto distribution in network node connectivity (Albert & Barabasi, 2002; Barabasi & Albert, 1999). The continuum approach in the scale-free network theory provides a dynamic equation for the connectivity of each node, which leads to the Pareto distribution asymptotically. As a variation of complex networks, Ergun and Rodgers (2002) provided models for growing random networks with fitness, which lead to an interpretation of the variable exponent parameter of the Pareto distribution. Recent progress in urban data development around the world has made it possible to demonstrate a statistical test of the rank-size rule across countries. Several studies have indicated the original rank-size rule, or Zipf’s law, which indicates that a Pareto exponent equal to one, can be rejected (Benguigui & Blumenfeld-Lieberthal, 2007; Sarabia & Prieto, 2009; Soo, 2005). In other words, the exponent parameter might take a value other than one, and is considered to be country specific. The random network growth models of Ergun and Rodgers consider the fitness (or suitability of the location) of the nodes in the growth; this would be applicable to the city size distribution model, where the exponent parameter can take various values. In this study, we develop a modified random growth model with a fitness parameter, which is interpreted as location suitability here, for urban population estimation and apply this model to the projection of the populations of various cities around the world by 2100 under the IPCC SRES scenario. The flow of the analysis is shown in Fig. 1. This framework consists of two models: an urban growth model with location suitability and a model for the radius of the urban sphere. The former estimates the population of a city’s jurisdiction based on the index of urban location suitability, national urban population scenarios, and

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Fig. 1.

Flowchart of Analysis in this Study.

current populations of all cities. Here, the index of urban location suitability is determined by geographical and climatic factors for the city’s location. The model for the radius of the urban sphere estimates the geographical coverage of an urban agglomeration based on adjacent city populations and an economic index. The populations of all of the target agglomerations can be estimated by combining the outputs of these models. The details will be described below. The number of cities used in this study is about 50,000. The current populations of these cities are compiled based on urban data published on the internet. The exponent parameter for each country is estimated based on these data. The location suitability of a city is estimated based on geographical and climatic conditions derived from GIS data. For the control urban population totals for each country, we employ the urban populations of three SRES scenarios in the IIASA-GGI database. Finally, the long-term geographical distribution of the urban population by 2100 is projected under these scenarios. Before describing the details of the models, basic descriptions of the population scenarios in the IPCC SRES are given in the next section.

POPULATION SCENARIOS IN IPCC SRES AND IIASA-GGI DATABASE For in-depth climate policy research, IPCC has published its ‘Special Report on Emissions Scenarios’ (IPCC, 2000). Because climate change is expected

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to have a significant impact on the centurial time scale, we have to discuss climate policies from a long-term point of view, considering both climatology and socio-economic aspects. However, the long-term future of our society is quite uncertain, and it is difficult to predict which figures for society at the end of this century have the highest probability. SRES presented four possible future socio-economic scenarios including population and economic growth rates for four regions in the world by 2100 in order to discuss the climate policy framework. There are four basic scenarios in this report: A1, A2, B1, and B2. With regard to the population prospects, there are only three different trajectories because scenarios A1 and B1 have the same population trajectory. These two scenarios assume a higher economic growth around the world and lower birth rates in developing countries. As a result, they have the lowest population trajectory of the scenarios. The A2 scenario assumes self-reliance regions, lower trade flows, and uneven economic growth. Reflecting international disparities, a higher birth rate in developing regions and the largest population among the scenarios are assumed. The B2 scenario describes intermediate economic growth and moderate population growth, and the fertility rates were assumed to converge to the same level as the UN 1998 medium scenario. The IIASA-GGI (IIASA, 2009) database provides the population trajectories for 185 countries, which were derived by downscaling the SRES scenarios. However, the population trajectory of the A2 scenario was modified downwards by about 3 billion in 2100 based on the updated statistics in this database. The modified scenario is called A2r. This database also provides the total urban population of each country. In this study, we use the urban population trajectories of the A2r, B1 and B2 scenarios for the future population estimations.

URBAN GROWTH MODEL We assume that the choice of a city for settlement by people depends on the population, ki, and location suitability, mi, of city i. Given the rate of increase for the urban population, q, of a country, the expected rate of population increase of city i is defined as follows:   ki þ mi  1 @ki  ¼ q . P (1) @t k j þ mj  1 j

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X j

kj ¼ q . t;

X

mj ¼ N t . m ¼ n . m . t; N t ¼

j

X

1¼n.t

j

where Nt is the number of cities at time t, m is the average location suitability (¼ omW) and n is the rate of increase for the number of cities. Applying the continuum approach by Barabasi and Albert (1999) to this problem, the probability of urban population k, which is larger than K, is asymptotically (t-N) derived as follows: .

PrðkK Þ / K ð1þn ðm1Þ=qÞ

(2)

This probability shows that the normalized cumulative distribution of city size follows a Pareto distribution with an exponent parameter (1 þ n(m  1)/q). In the case where m ¼ 1, this distribution yields Zipf’s law. Here, the location suitability factor is an aggregated value of the attractiveness of a city rather than its population. In this model, the national average of location suitability m is interpreted as the determinant factor of the Pareto exponent which defines the city size distribution. Later in this chapter, the location suitability factor will be defined by the geographical and climatic conditions of each city.

CITY SIZE DISTRIBUTION AND EXPONENT PARAMETER We compiled the city population data from World Gazetteer (http:// www.world-gazetteer.com/) and GeoNames (http://www.geonames.org/). These data provide the latest populations of cities and their locations in geographical coordinates. These data contain a total of more than 400,000 cities. However, we chose the data for cities with populations of more than 5,000 to avoid including non-urban settlements and villages. Because these two data sources contain the same city data, we compared them by the city name, location and population, and merged them. As a result, we obtained datasets for 54,910 cities. In these data, the city scale is defined as the administrative boundary of the city level. Our interest is in the growth of the urban population, which includes surrounding suburbs where the workers of a city reside and commute to the city. In this study, a set of a core city and its satellite cities is defined as an agglomeration. Here, we apply a simple model to estimate the population of an urban sphere of agglomeration based on the population data of each jurisdiction.

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We assume that the radius of an area is proportional to the root of the agglomeration population, and that the population is the sum of the cities within the agglomeration area. This assumption can be formulated as follows: qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi Ri ¼ Z PopAG i X   PopAG ¼ PopAD i j ; where M i ¼ jd ij oRi j2M i

where Ri is the radius (in metres) of the urban sphere of agglomeration i; PopAG and PopAD are the populations (in persons) of agglomeration i and i j within city j, respectively; Mi is the set of cities belonging to agglomeration i; and dij is the distance between the centre of agglomeration i and city j. Z is a sphere parameter and is calibrated for each country that has more than five pieces of agglomeration population data provided by the United Nations World Urbanization Prospect database (United Nations, 2008). Assuming that the UN data are observed values, Z is estimated so as to minimize the square error of the estimated agglomeration population under the given populations. The centre of agglomeration is given by the city centre that has the same name as the agglomeration’s name in the UN data. The UN data provide the agglomeration populations of 120 countries. However, there are only 23 countries with more than five agglomerations. Based on the datasets for these 23 countries, we estimate the sphere parameter Z in the above equation. Here, when this parameter is high, the radius becomes large and the urban density is assumed to be low. In this sense, parameter Z can be interpreted as representing some measure of mobility and density of the agglomeration, and we suppose that it would relate to the level of economic development. Fig. 2 shows the plot of the estimated parameters versus GDP per capita for the 23 countries. We can find loose relationships among them. Of course, there are some factors that cause errors, such as the defectiveness of the suburban data or differences in the definitions of urban agglomeration. In addition, the urban extent depends not only on its population or GDP, but is also related to the geographical features of the location, industrial structure, transport infrastructure and architectural technologies, as well as public preferences regarding travel and housing. Even though this idea for urban agglomeration estimation is too simple to represent the expansion of an urban area in reality, we use this relationship in the estimation of urban agglomeration around the world as an approximation of the urban expansion mechanism.

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Fig. 2.

Relationship between Urban Radius Parameter and GDP per Capita.

Using this formula, we estimate the urban agglomeration around the world, except for the agglomerations of the populations given by the UN database. The agglomeration data generated by this formula or given by the UN database are added to our dataset, and cities belonging to an agglomeration are removed from the dataset. For countries whose parameters are not estimated in the above analysis, the parameter is assumed to be a function of the per capita GDP, which is assumed to influence the mobility of urban activity. The relationship between the per capita GDP and the parameter is assumed to be as follows:  b Z ¼ b1 . PG þ b2 3 þ b4 where PG is per capita GDP. b1–b4 are calibrated to fit the data from the 23 countries plotted in Fig. 2, and are estimated as follows: b1 ¼ 1.94, b2 ¼ 0.0473, b3 ¼ 0.175, and b4 ¼ 4.67. The urban radius of each city is first estimated using the equations above. When a city is located within the radius of another city in its country, or, in other words, if the distance, dij, between cities i and j is shorter than radius Ri of city i, then city j is assumed to belong to city i. In a case where two cities belong to each other, the smaller city is defined as belonging to the larger city. In a case where city j is located within the radii of two or more cities, we assume that it belongs to city i with the largest value of Ri/dij. Here, a city to which one or more cities belong is called a core city, and the cities that belong to it are called satellite cities. A set of a core city and its satellite cities is defined as an agglomeration. Now, the population of an agglomeration increases if satellite cities are added, and its urban radius increases. If there are any cities within the updated sphere of

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the agglomeration, these are added to the agglomeration. This process is applied iteratively until no city is added to the agglomerations. In a case where an agglomeration comes to include the core city of another agglomeration, it inherits all of the cities of the internalized agglomeration. Through this process, we obtained 1,761 agglomerations which contained the same number of core cities and 9,594 satellite cities. The other 43,555 cities were not included in any agglomerations. In total, 45,316 agglomerations and city datasets were generated. Fig. 3 shows the estimated agglomerations of Tokyo, Shanghai and Los Angeles on the same map scale. In each figure, the map indicates the centroids of jurisdictions within the agglomeration. Reflecting the differences in the sizes of the cities’ jurisdictions or the location-mobility styles of people among the countries, the numbers of cities and extents of these agglomerations look different, even though all of their populations exceed 10 million. Fig. 4 shows a plot of log–log scale rank-size distributions for Japan, China, and the US. The figure shows the plots of two datasets: the original city population data and the estimated agglomeration dataset, which excludes the satellite cities. It is obvious, especially in the United States, that the smaller cities belong to larger cities. In other words, the agglomeration dataset has fewer small cities and agglomerations with larger population sizes. As a result, the slope of the plot of the agglomeration dataset is more moderate than that of the original city dataset. We can also find flatter slope ranges for smaller population sizes in the figures for Japan and China. This might be because of the definition of a city: a settlement with a population that is less than a certain threshold may

Fig. 3. Extent of Estimated Agglomerations in 2000.

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Fig. 4.

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Log-Rank and Log-Size Plots of City Populations (Crosses) and Estimated Agglomeration Datasets (Circles).

not be counted as a ‘city’. Alternatively, the datasets might have errors in the small city data. Our interest is the mechanism for the formation of the upper tail of the city size distribution. For these reasons, we tried to remove the data for small cities from the dataset to avoid any bias in the estimations. To remove the small city data, we divided the dataset into 10 subsets based on the size of the city populations. Each subset had the same number of samples and the exponent parameter, that is slope of the plot, of each set was estimated. If the parameter of the lowest tail subset, which was the smallest population dataset, was lower than the average minus the standard deviation of the 10 estimated parameters, the subset was removed from the dataset. This process was repeated until the parameter of the lowest tail subset did not satisfy this condition. Using this dataset, we estimated the exponent parameters for each country. Past studies mainly employed two methods for such an estimation: the ordinary least-square (OLS) method and Hill (1975) method. They assumed the following regression curve in applying OLS: ln R ¼ ln A  a . ln S This equation estimates both lnA and a, where a is the Pareto exponent [ ¼ 1 þ n(m1)/q in Eq. (1)] and A is tested to determine whether or not it is identical to the size of the largest city. In addition to this curve, we also assume a function with a constraint so that the plot of the largest city is exactly on the line. It is expressed as follows: ln R ¼ a . ð ln Smax  ln SÞ where Smax is the size of the largest city.

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In this model, a can be estimated by OLS. There is no theoretical background to justify this limitation in the Pareto exponent estimation. However, one of our interests is finding a way to estimate the emergence of megacities in the future, and we consider that a significant error in the estimation of the size of prime cities may not necessarily reflect the overall characteristics of the city formation mechanism. Fig. 5 shows the log–log scale rank-size plot with regression curves. OLS1 is a function with two parameters, OLS2 is the constraint function, and Hill is estimated by Hill’s method. If the data are obtained from a Pareto distribution without error, then the estimates of these three methods will be completely identical. However, if the data are not completely described by the theoretical distribution, these three methods give different parameters. Of course, the number of samples increases as the city size decreases. Therefore, the OLS1 line fits medium to small cities. In the case of China, the OLS1 line seems to fit well to samples with populations of less than 3 million, although it deviates from the data at larger population domains. This plot suggests that the city size distribution may consist of different distributions based on the city size domain. Black and Henderson (2003) concluded that the exponent parameter depends on the sample size used for the estimation, based on decennial urban population data from the US for the 20th century. Compared to the results for OLS1, OLS2 seems to estimate a mid-range exponent on the full range of the dataset. Hill’s estimator is reported to have bias in cases where the size distribution does not follow a Pareto distribution (Soo, 2005). The estimated exponent parameters are summarized in Table 1. A larger Pareto exponent can be interpreted as a dispersed urban system, and a smaller exponent reflects a centralized one. The OLS1 results are quite curious in that the exponent for Japan is higher than those for China and the United States. This means Japan has a more decentralized urban system than the other two countries. This is because of the poor representation of OLS1 for prime cities, as shown in Fig. 5. Conversely,

Table 1.

Japan China USA

Estimated Pareto Exponents.

OLS1

OLS2

Hill

1.00 0.91 0.94

0.84 1.23 1.01

0.99 1.19 1.14

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Fig. 5.

MASANOBU KII AND KENJI DOI

Log-Size and Log-Rank Plots of Agglomeration and Cumulative Pareto Distributions for Three-Exponent Parameter Estimates.

the OLS2 exponent provides the opposite result, that is Japan is the most centralized and China is decentralized. It would be preferable to reflect the size of the prime cities in the national urban system for the interpretation of the Pareto exponent. Fig. 6 shows the kernel functions for the Pareto exponents estimated by the above methods for 141 countries that have more than 20 cities or agglomerations, using the Gaussian kernel and bandwidth choice method of Sheather and Jones (1991). From this figure, the Hill method gives varied estimates that seem to be inappropriate for representing the city size distribution for the dataset used in this study. Both of the kernel functions of the OLS estimators have means lower than one: 0.92 and 0.85 for OLS1 and OLS2, respectively. This is the result of using the agglomeration dataset. Soo (2005) estimated that the average exponent for the agglomeration data of 26 countries was 0.87, which is consistent with our result for the OLS2 model, even though the assumed model in Soo (2005) used the same formula as OLS1. We tested the null hypothesis that the estimated lnA by the OLS1 model has the same value as a common logarithm of the prime city population. Among the 141 countries, only 12 countries support this null hypothesis at a 0.05 level of significance, and 16 countries do so at a 0.01 level of significance. In other words, the lnA estimated by OLS1 is not identical to that observed in most countries. Based on the above analysis, we found that the estimates by the OLS2 model may have preferable features for the interpretation in this study of national urban systems.

Projection of Global Megacities

Fig. 6.

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Kernel Density Functions for Pareto Exponent Using Three Methods.

LOCATION SUITABILITY FOR CITY LOCATION The Pareto exponent of our model in Eq. (2) was determined by the rate of increase for the urban population, q, the rate of increase for the number of cities, n, and the national average of location suitability, m. Among these factors, the location suitability is the key index because it determines whether the exponent is more than, less than, or equal to one. Our model represents the Pareto distribution of city size under the growth phase of urban population. Therefore, both q and n are positive. In the above, although the location suitability has not yet been defined, if the national average location suitability is more than one, then the exponent is more than one, and vice versa. In this study, we tried to analyse this location suitability index considering the geographical and climatic conditions of the location. Under these conditions, we prepared a dataset containing the elevation, slope, distance from the coastline, distance from a large river, annual mean temperature and annual precipitation for each 5 min  5 min grid on land areas around the world. The elevation data used here were based on SRTM30_PLUS (Becker et al., 2009). The dataset originally had a 30-arc-s

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resolution and was aggregated to produce a 5-min resolution. The slope dataset was derived from SRTM30_PLUS as follows. First, the slopes towards four adjacent grids were calculated by dividing the difference in height by the distance between the target grid and adjacent grid using the 30-arc-s data. Then, the maximum slope was chosen and was averaged for a 5-arc-min grid. Coastal lines were extracted from the polygon data of world countries by Pitney Bowes Business Insight (2009), and large river lines were taken from HydroSHEDS (Lehner, Verdin, & Jarvis, 2008). The HydroSHEDS data were generated from the elevation data and do not necessarily represent actual rivers. We selected the lines with more than 300,000 flow accumulation cells that were not located on the desert grid in the Global Land Cover Characteristics database version 2.0 (Loveland et al., 2000). Temperature and precipitation data were obtained from WorldClim (Hijmans, Cameron, Parra, Jones, & Jarvis, 2005). Fig. 7 shows the kernel density functions for these indices, taking the grid set where the city is located (urban grid) and all of the land grids around the world. They were estimated using the bandwidth choice method of Scott (1992). A comparison of the densities for all of the land grids shows that cities tend to locate on grids with lower elevations, flatter slopes, proximity to the coast and large rivers, and suitable temperature and precipitation. We assumed that these differences reflect preferences in city location, and

Fig. 7.

Kernel Density Functions for Geographical and Climatic Features.

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Fig. 8.

Probability Density Function of City Location by Geographical and Climatic Situation.

defined the city location probability over these geographical features by the ratio of the urban grid density to the grid density for all of the land. Fig. 8 shows the kernel density of the ratio and approximated parametric curves. We assume that these conditions in some sense represent the geographical suitability of a city location, and derive an integrated index using these probabilities. Here, we assume the integrated location suitability index is expressed by the following formula: Fi ¼

 1 X  f j xij yj J j

(3)

where Fi is the integrated index at grid i, fj is the probability density function of city existence for value xij with parameter yj,, and J is the number of factors. The set of factors consists of the average height, slope, distance to the coastline, distance to a large river, temperature, and precipitation. The probability density functions are assumed to have exponential distributions for the first four factors and log-normal distributions for the last two factors. The estimated integrated location suitability of each grid is shown in Fig. 9. A plot of the country average location suitability index against the Pareto exponent is shown in Fig. 10. Here, the country location suitability index is

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Fig. 9.

Geographical Distribution of Integrated Location Suitability Index.

Fig. 10.

Location Suitability Index Versus Pareto Exponent.

the average of all of the grids where the city exists, that is oFW ¼ SiAOcFi/ jOcj, where Oc is the set of grids in which the city exists. The location suitability index can be calculated for all countries, although the calculation of the Pareto exponent requires sufficient city population and location data. Here, we choose 132 countries, each of which has more than 28 cities in the dataset. We find that there is a positive correlation between the location suitability index and Pareto exponent, even though it is very weak. This positive correlation indicates that a country that has a large area of land suitable for

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cities may have a decentralized urban system, and vice versa. In other words, this result suggests that the geographical and climatic conditions of a country affect its urban system and city size distribution. In contrast, we believe that there are several reasons for the weakness of the correlation, including the limited factors considered, the limitations of this model, and the quality of the data used here. The determinants of a national urban system are, of course, not only the geographical or climatic conditions but also various other factors such as the political system, economic structure, history, and infrastructure. Soo (2005) explained the Pareto exponent by political and economic factors using a regression model for 44 countries, although the mechanism of how the political or economic factors affect the Pareto exponent was not obvious. A nationwide transport infrastructure may be an important factor for the formation of an urban system. However, infrastructure investment is more intensive for large cities. Therefore, if we employ the intensiveness of the infrastructure as a component of the location suitability factor, it might be a tautological analysis.

DISCUSSIONS ON MODELLING AND DATA QUALITY Our model is based on a very simple assumption, with an emphasis on settlement and no explicit consideration of in-depth human behaviour. There is another approach for representing the city size distribution, based on Gibrat’s law; if the city growth rate is a random variable and is independent of city size, then this process converges to Zip’s law (see, e.g. Gabaix & Ioannides, 2003). Rossi-Hansberg and Wright (2007) derived Gibrat’s law based on a general equilibrium theory of economic growth and demonstrated that the slope of the city size distribution depends on the variance of productivity shock. Co´rdoba (2008) derived the general conditions that have to be satisfied to generate a Pareto distribution of city size using a balanced growth competitive equilibrium model. He also concluded that the model needs randomness for an underlying factor such as preferences for goods or total factor productivities. These are interesting models and could be a natural way to explain urban system formation. However, a future projection of city population using these theories only presents one example from an infinite number of possible patterns of the

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geographical distribution of population because it requires randomness to generate the distribution. A Monte-Carlo method would generate an average distribution and confidence interval for future estimations, but its performance has to be studied in future research. There are other approaches to deriving the Pareto distribution. Semboloni and Leyvraz (2005) derived the distribution under the conditions that the total population is constant, all individuals have the same preferences, resources are equally distributed, but two migration rules – unification and diversification – are applied randomly. They concluded that the equilibrium between agglomeration and resources is able to generate the distribution. Mitzenmacher (2004) reviewed various generative models for Pareto distributions, including complex network models, optimization models, multiplicative process models and random process models, even though these are not specified for the estimation of city size distribution. Data quality is another issue that affects the accuracy and reliability of this method. Two data sources were used in this study but their coverage and quality were not examined in depth. The coverage and quality of the population and location data for cities are critical conditions in an analysis of urban extent and estimation of exponent parameters. For instance, if there are missing data for some cities near a large city, our model overestimates the geographical extent of agglomeration so as to fit its population to the statistics. At present, there is no exhaustive data source for the geographical distribution of global urban populations. Jurisdictional population statistics have probably been developed in many individual countries, and an international research network for the compilation and maintenance of global urban data will significantly contribute to an improvement in the coverage and quality of the data. The quality of the data and the method used for the location suitability analysis should also be noted. The HydroSHEDS data used to represent large river lines were derived from elevation data and do not necessarily represent the actual rivers because they do not reflect the precipitation in river basins. We heuristically removed the lines located on deserts; however, we did not check the runoff of the other lines. We supposed that a large river was one of the important factors for inland logistics. However, some rivers, such as seasonal streams, cannot be used for logistical purposes. It may be necessary to check the data quality more precisely for further study. Additionally, the formula used to calculate the integrated location suitability index, which is an additive form of factor indices, was determined in an ad-hoc manner. Therefore, it is also necessary to examine another formula such as a multiplicative form or generalized average.

Projection of Global Megacities

35

PROJECTION OF CITY POPULATION USING SRES SCENARIOS Using the urban growth model expressed by Eq. (1), we can estimate city populations around the world by 2100 which are consistent with three population scenarios in the IIASA-GGI database: A2r, B1 and B2. The population estimates in this database are connected to the population statistics from the United Nations (United Nations, 2008) for past populations. Matching the city population dataset developed above, 182 countries have complete data available for the analysis. Eq. (1) gives the dynamics of the population change under the rate of increase for a national urban population. However, it is not necessarily applicable there is depopulation. In our experience, smaller cities easily lose their attractiveness, even though Eq. (1) estimates that the populations of larger cities decline faster. Thus, we can prepare another equation for population estimation in a depopulating society as follows: @ki ¼ q . expð g . ki Þ @t X   s:t: exp  g . kj ¼ 1 j2O Eq. (1) can also be solved for past city populations. Assuming ki,t and ki,t þ 1 are the populations at periods t and t þ 1 in city i, and ki,t þ 1 ¼ ki,t þ qki/qt, ki,t can be expressed as follows:  P   mi  1 DQt j kj;tþ1 þ mj  1 DQt  ki;tþ1  P   P ki;t ¼ j kj;tþ1 þ mj  1 j kj;tþ1 þ mj  1 where the location suitability parameter m can be estimated using Eq. (3), and the relationship between the location suitability index F and the Pareto exponent a is as shown in Fig. 10. DQt is the national urban population change from t to t þ 1. If the rate of increase for urban population q in Eq. (1) is an annual one, DQt is identical to q. Using these equations, we estimated the populations of 54,438 cities from 1950 to 2100 at intervals of 10 years. Applying the urban growth model to the city population estimations, the urban extents and agglomeration populations were also calculated. Fig. 11 shows a geographical plot of the estimated urban populations. Comparing with the figure for 2000, it is estimated that a large number of megacities with more than 10 million people will emerge in developing

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Fig. 11.

Estimated Urban Populations.

regions in future for every scenario. In contrast, the number of megacities is almost stable in developed countries. Among the scenarios, A2r gives the largest urban population, which reaches 10 billion people by 2100. The number of megacities is estimated to be 132 by 2100 under A2r, and is 45 and 99 under B1 and B2, respectively.

MEGACITIES IN CHINA In the case of China, the estimated log scale of the rank-size distribution is shown in Fig. 12. The population scenarios for China show trends similar to the global scenarios: A2r has the highest growth rate, B1 has the lowest and

Projection of Global Megacities

Fig. 12.

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Estimated Log Scale Rank-Size Distributions for China.

B2 has an intermediate rate. In the case of A2r, the distribution shifts rightwards and the slope seems to become more moderate, which means the urban system shifts to a centralized form. In contrast, the B1 scenario gives a decline in urban population from 2050 to 2100. Reflecting this depopulation, the lower tail of the distribution is bent flat and most of the urban population declines from 2050. The B2 scenario is positioned at the mid-range of the SRES scenarios, and leads to a stable city size distribution after 2050. Fig. 13 shows the geographical distributions of large cities with populations greater than 1 million in 2000 and 2100 for the three scenarios. The spatial patterns of the emerging large cities are quite different, depending on the scenario. In 2000, there is only one megacity in China, Shanghai. However, this number is estimated to increase to 25 in the A2r scenario. There are only five megacities in the B1 scenario, and the B2 scenario gives an intermediate figure between those for the A2r and B1 scenarios. The numbers of megacities with populations greater than 10 million for each scenario are listed in Table 2. National urban population scenarios affect not only the number of megacities, but also the estimated population of each city. Taking Shanghai as an example, Fig. 14 plots the statistical and estimated urban populations from 1950 to 2100. The estimations vary widely among the scenarios. Under the A2r scenario, the population continuously and steeply increases during this century and exceeds 90 million by 2100. This is more than three times the current population of the largest urban agglomeration in the world, that is Tokyo. This implies that a vast amount of investment in urban infrastructure and resource management would be needed. In contrast, under the B1 scenario, the population is estimated to peak at 2050 and thereafter moderately decline towards 2100. The B2 scenario generates a

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Fig. 13.

Geographical Distribution of Large Cities in China in 2000 and 2100.

Table 2.

Number of Megacities in China for Three Scenarios.

Scenario

A2r B1 B2

Year 2000

2050

2100

1

17 8 15

25 5 19

continuous increase in population in this century, and the rate of increase is much lower than that under the A2r scenario, especially after 2030. The national urban population scenarios were generated based on a macro-analysis of the dynamic population trend and possible future socioeconomic assumptions. However, the range of projections is too wide to be used for decision making. Every assumed scenario has almost the same annual population growth rate (0.55–0.59%) during the period from 2000 to 2010, and the observed value (0.57%) falls within this range. In the case of

Projection of Global Megacities

Fig. 14.

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Statistical and Estimated Urban Populations in Shanghai.

A2r, the growth rate is assumed to decrease towards 2060, reaching 0.03%. However, it then increases again from 2060 to 2100, reaching 0.49%. In contrast, the B1 scenario assumes a monotonic decrease in the population growth rate, becoming negative after 2030 and dropping to 1.31% in 2100. In the case of B2, the growth rate declines until 2060, after which it increases slightly to 0.08% in 2100. It is quite difficult to determine which scenario is most probable. One factor would be future population policy. The population might decrease more than in the B1 scenario if the one-child policy is strictly applied and continues throughout this century. However, if this policy is relaxed, the population might continue to increase, as in A2r. The long-term prospects for urban populations are becoming more important in strategic decision making for tackling global warming and climate-change problems. Narrowing the uncertainty in future population estimations will be beneficial for discussions on long-term urban strategies, including land-use transport planning and management.

CONCLUDING REMARKS In this study, we developed an urban growth model and applied it to the projection of megacity emergence by 2100 under the scenarios of the IPCC SRES. The upper tail of the estimated city size distribution maintained a Pareto distribution for the estimation period, which was consistent with current observations. All of the scenarios generated the emergence of a large

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number of megacities in developing regions towards 2100, although the range was wide depending on the assumed population. The estimations shown in this chapter are not infallible predictions that cannot be changed but are possible representations of future urbanization, which could be changed by policies and planning for urban systems. As shown in Eq. (1), the assumed dynamics of urban growth were very simple, depending only on population and location suitability, and did not take into account the impact of policies, even though the model explained the observed city size distribution with high accuracy. In this sense, the urban growth estimated here could be interpreted as the autonomous dynamics of human settlement without the intervention of the will of decision makers. Some of the results of our study indicate an extreme concentration of population in megacities in developing countries, which might be undesirable for national security, individual quality of life, and sustainable development. If it is undesirable, there are measures and instruments to control this urban growth and development. One example would be a transport policy which could serve as a dispersion force for population concentration. These results could serve to stimulate discussions on urban/ national land development policy and planning. This study is ongoing, and there are many issues to be addressed, including the data quality and reliability, accuracy of the agglomeration formation mechanisms, location suitability factors for city locations and constraints on urban growth such as water resource limitations. Among these issues, improving the data quality for urban populations is essential for further study. At present, there is no exhaustive dataset for the geographical distribution of urban populations. The development of a statistical database and its maintenance system will contribute to future studies on urban activities and related policy research.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This study is partly supported by KAKENHI (23760490).

REFERENCES Albert, R., & Baraba´si, A. L. (2002). Statistical mechanics of complex networks. Reviews of Modern Physics, 74, 47–97. Asadoorian, M. O. (2008). Simulating the spatial distribution of population and emissions to 2100. Environmental and Resource Economics, 39, 199–221.

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Barabasi, L., & Albert, R. (1999). Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science, 286, 509–512. Becker, J. J., Sandwell, D. T., Smith, W. H. F., Braud, J., Binder, B., Depner, J., y Weatherall, P. (2009). Global bathymetry and elevation data at 30 arc seconds resolution: SRTM30_PLUS. Marine Geodesy, 32(4), 355–371. Benguigui, L., & Blumenfeld-Lieberthal, E. (2007). Beyond the power law – A new approach to analyze city size distributions. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 31, 648–666. Black, D., & Henderson, V. (2003). Urban evolution in the USA. Journal of Economic Geography, 3, 343–372. Co´rdoba, J. C. (2008). On the distribution of city sizes. Journal of Urban Economics, 63, 177–197. Ergu¨n, G., & Rodgers, G. J. (2002). Growing random networks with fitness. Physica A, 303(1–2), 261–272. Gabaix, X., & Ioannides, Y. (2003). The evolution of city size distributions. In J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (Eds.), Handbook of economic geography (pp. 2341–2380). Amsterdam: North-Holland. Gaffin, S. R., Rosenzweig, C., Xing, X., & Yetman, G. (2004). Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). Global Environmental Change, 14, 105–123. Gru¨blera, A., O’Neilla, B., Riahia, K., Chirkova, V., Goujona, A., Kolpa, P., & Slentoe, E. (2007). Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74, 980–1029. Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G., & Jarvis, A. (2005). Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965–1978. Hilderink, H. B. M. (2006). People in the pixel: Grid-based population dynamics using PHOENIX. In A. F. Bouwman, T. Kram & K. Klein Goldewijk (Eds.), Integrated modelling of global environmental change. Bilthoven: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). Hill, B. M. (1975). A simple general approach to inference about the tail of a distribution. The Annals of Statistics, 3(5), 1163–1174. International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA). (2009). GGI scenario database Version 2.0. Retrieved from http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/GGI/DB/ IPCC. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios: A special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Lehner, B., Verdin, K., & Jarvis, A. (2008). New global hydrography derived from spaceborne elevation data. Eos, Transactions, AGU, 89(10), 93–94. Loveland, T. R., Reed, B. C., Brown, J. F., Ohlen, D. O., Zhu, J., Yang, L., & Merchant, J. W. (2000). Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP DISCover from 1-km AVHRR data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 21(6–7), 1303–1330. Mitzenmacher, M. (2004). A brief history of generative models for power law and lognormal distributions. Internet Mathematics, 1(2), 226–251. Pitney Bowes Business Insight. (2009). MapInfo professional data directory. Troy, NY: Pitney Bowes Software Inc. Rossi-Hansberg, E., & Wright, M. L. J. (2007). Urban structure and growth. Review of Economic Studies, 74, 597–624.

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Sarabia, J. M., & Prieto, F. (2009). The Pareto-positive stable distribution: A new descriptive model for city size data. Physica A, 388, 4179–4191. Scott, D. W. (1992). Multivariate density estimation: Theory, practice, and visualization. New York, NY: Wiley. Semboloni, F., & Leyvraz, F. (2005). Size and resources driven migration resulting in a powerlaw distribution of cities. Physica A, 352(2–4), 612–628. Sheather, S. J., & Jones, M. C. (1991). A reliable data-based bandwidth selection method for Kernel density estimation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 53, 683–690. Simon, H. (1955). On a class of skew distribution functions. Biometrika, 42, 425–440. Soo, K. T. (2005). Zipf’s Law for cities: A cross-country investigation. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 35, 239–263. United Nations. (2008). World urbanization prospects: The 2007 revision population database. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm Zipf, G. K. (1949). Human behaviour and the principle of least effort. Cambridge: AddisonWesley.

CHAPTER 3 IMPLEMENTING SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRAVEL POLICIES IN CHINA Haixiao PAN ABSTRACT Purpose – This chapter explores the functions of institutional setting, technical requirements and local city characteristics as they affect the implementation of sustainable urban travel policies in China under the pressure of fast motorization and the constraints of energy and resource limitations. Methodology – We reviewed the documents related to sustainable urban transport vision in China from central government and compared the motorization and urban transport policy at local city level in relation to social equity, urban transport finance, as well as the challenge of an ageing society. Findings – The concept of sustainable development had been widely talked about in China but has not yet been effectively translated into actions in urban transport. There is a need to strengthen the synchronization of central government and local government strategies on sustainable transport in order to achieve less car-dependent cities.

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 43–76 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003005

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Research limitations/implications – We need more research to understand the specific characteristics of the Chinese urban transport system and the constraints on the implementation of sustainable transport policy at a local level. Practical and social implications – The achievement of a higher share of walking and cycling will greatly improve sustainable urban mobility, in terms of social equity, quality of urban life and also fossil energy consumption. Originality – Current policy documents and implementation practice were analysed to provide the reader with a deep understanding of urban transport policy in China. Keywords: China; urban transport; sustainable development; policy implementation

INTRODUCTION China is now undergoing rapid urbanization, unprecedented in the world. The urban share of the total population grew from 26.2% in 1990 to 46.7% in 2010. The urban population increased by almost 350 million over the last 30 years. The process is driven mainly by the rapid growth of exportoriented industry and service sectors, and the physical expansion of cities into outlying rural areas, causing on-site conversion of the population from rural to urban. Due to the higher transport cost from the hinterland area to the coastal region, the increase in affluence and of urban population is concentrated in regions such as the southeastern coastal provinces where there is great development opportunity close to the major seaports. The big cities are growing bigger. For example, the population of Shanghai increased from 12.8 million in 1990 to 23.0 million in 2010. To accommodate the population and economic activities, the urbanized area has expanded. However, such expansion becomes excessive due to distorted incentives. Cities offer discounted or free land to attract foreign direct investment and businesses, and they give land concessions for industrial and real estate development in return for financial gains. Both processes distort the planned land use and transport structure. The expansion of cities lengthens travel distances and encourages a strong desire to drive by car.

Implementing Sustainable Urban Travel Policies in China

Fig. 1.

45

Car Growth in China.

Moreover, the rapid motorization in China (Fig. 1) occurred during a crucial period of social transformation characterized by the strong dynamics of globalization, urbanization, fiscal decentralization, and the transition from central planning to a market-based economy. To a great extent, all these factors have shaped the urban transport problems and contributed to the success and failure of urban transport development. China’s government designated the automotive industry as one of the pillar industries of the national economy from early 1990s. This was followed by the promulgation of an automotive industrial policy in 1994. The policy made it clear that the development of the automotive industry should rely on the domestic market for private cars. The number of registered cars increased from around one million in 1994 to 7.8 million in 2001, and to 32.7 million in 2008. The production value from auto manufacturing in 2009 exceeded CNY 3,000 billion (yuan renminbi) or USD 370 billion. Obviously, the automotive industrial policy is a major success in driving the national economic growth and capturing the domestic market. However, automobiles are always associated with the problems of congestion and pollution. Now even in the middle-sized cities there is serious congestion, especially during the rush hour. People argue about how many cars can be accommodated in China. In metropolitan areas and other large cities, the rapid growth of the middle-income class, the ageing of the residential population, and the influx of low-income young labourers pose an increasingly diversified range of demands for urban transport services in terms of quality, trip patterns and

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affordability. We are facing great challenges to realize a sustainable urban transport strategy in China.

INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK Under the decentralized arrangement, municipal governments take primary responsibility, both functional and fiscal, for urban infrastructure including urban transport. The responsibilities of the national government are limited to the review and approval of urban master plans and large urban transport investment projects (including mass rail transit), setting technical standards and policy guidance and promoting knowledge exchange. However, the rapid economic changes and growth at the local level make it increasingly difficult for the national government to review and approve urban master plans and investment projects. At the city level, there are often several agencies involved in urban transport policy and management. For example, Shanghai has the Urban Planning Bureau and the Urban Construction and Transportation Committee. The function of urban transport governance in mainland China could be divided into four areas:    

Renewing transport plans. Formulating urban transportation policy. Adopting new financing strategies and technologies. Restructuring the department’s organization and institution.

The organization structure and management function of urban transport institutions in China mainland can be classified in three categories (Table 1). In Model A, there are too many agencies to coordinate urban transport planning, which may result in conflicts between different agencies. In some cities, all the departments related to transport are merged together as described in Model C; a single transport commission is responsible all the modes of transport within a city and to other cities. Even in this model differences may arise during internal negotiation between various sections of the transport commission. To strengthen urban transport construction in Shanghai (Fig. 2, Table 2), especially for the metro and motorways, the Urban Transport Bureau, which is generally responsible for management of public transport and the transport industry, has been merged with Urban–Rural Construction Commission. Usually an urban planning bureau will prepare a master plan and a comprehensive urban transport plan with urban transport strategies

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Implementing Sustainable Urban Travel Policies in China

Table 1. Three Transport Management Models in China. Model types

Model A

Model B

Management system model

Multiple regulations on transportation by urban transport bureau, municipal engineering bureau, urban construction department, police security bureau, etc.

Examples of cites

Kunming, Chengdu, Shenyang, Harbin and Fuzhou and Nanning. Lanzhou.

Main duties

The urban transport Urban transport In addition to highway commission is a bureau: regulations planning and department of on highway transport, construction and municipal government highway construction water transport responsible for the and water transport. regulation, the urban Municipal engineering regulations on transport bureau is bureau: regulations transport planning, also responsible for for buses and taxis. roadways, highway the overall regulations Construction transport, water on highway transport, department: planning transport, public urban transport, buses and construction of buses, taxis, urban and taxis. roads. railway, air transport and other transports.

Overall regulation on urban and rural transportation.

Model C General regulation on transportation.

Beijing, Shenzhen and Wuhan.

Shanghai Municipal Government

Shanghai Urban Planning Bureau

Shanghai Urban-Rural Construction & Transport Committee

Shanghai Urban Transport

Fig. 2.

Traffic Police Headquarters of Police Security Bureau

Shanghai Municipal Engineering Bureau

Organization Structure of Transport Institutions in Shanghai.

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Table 2.

HAIXIAO PAN

Management Function of Transport Institutions in Shanghai.

Institution

Management Function

Shanghai Urban Planning Bureau

 Coordinate various specialized planning including transport planning and urban transport strategy

Shanghai Urban–Rural Construction and Transport Committee

Shanghai Urban Transport Bureau

 Formulate policy guidelines and industry criteria  Formulate public transportation service standards  Nourish the transportation market

Shanghai Municipal Engineering Bureau

 Construct, maintain and administer urban roads and bridges

Traffic Police Headquarters of Police Security

 Manage road traffic  Promote order and security on public streets  Administer motor vehicles, nonmotor vehicles and vehicle drivers  Prevent road traffic accidents

and a plan for transport infrastructure construction. The Municipal Engineering Bureau is in charge of road and bridge construction. The Urban Transport Bureau is responsible for regulation and administration of the public transport system. At the national level the administration function for urban public transport has been shifted from the Ministry of Housing and Urban–Rural Construction to the Ministry of Transportation. The National Development and Reform Commission will evaluate the planning of intercity railway and metro lines, and the Ministry of Railway will be responsible for construction and management of intercity rail. Both agencies work closely with the Ministry of Housing and Urban–Rural Construction.

POLICY FRAMEWORK As the urbanization process tends to proceed at a quicker pace in China (National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, 2007), it is predicted that, as of 2050, China’s urbanization level shall exceed 70%, a record that no country in the world has shared (Niu, 2002). With the soaring

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49

economic growth and urbanization process, various pressures from the environment, society and regional development are imposed on China’s urban development. How to solve contradictions arising in the urbanization process, especially urban energy consumption and automotive exhaust emissions, while maintaining fast and steady economic growth, has caused great concern in the Chinese government (Zhu, 2007). In 1994, the Government approved and published a white paper on population, environment, and development. It set sustainable development of population, resources and environment as one of the national policies governing the formulation of medium-term and long-term economic and social development plans and the urban master plans. The Eleventh Five-Year plan (2006–2010) called for energy consumption per unit of GDP to decrease by 20% or so and total emissions of major pollutants by 10% (Jin, 2008). The debate on urban transport policy is increasingly covered by the mass media. With rising recognition of the energy and environmental problems (including loss of agricultural land) associated with rapid urban motorization, the national government is trying to find a balanced urban transport strategy. National leadership also places a new emphasis on people-centred development and balanced urban–rural development. It has long been recognized that to solve the urban transport problem, we must provide an efficient public transport system. Serious attention has been given to public transport by some top government leaders for quite a long time. The Ministry of Construction issued guidelines on public transport development in April 2004. In May 2004, Premier Wen Jiabao made it clear that ‘giving priority to urban public transport development is a correct line of strategic thinking that suits the reality of China’s urban and transport development’. On 23 September 2005, the State Council issued a document endorsing an opinion by the Ministry of Construction on the priority of urban public transport. In December 2006, the Ministry of Construction, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Labor and Social Security issued the ‘Advice on Economic Policy for Priority Development of Urban Public Transport’, which clearly states that public transport is an important urban infrastructure in the city. Like education and health care, public transport service is a basic public service provided by government. City government and bus companies have the responsibility to provide affordable, convenient, comfortable and efficient basic transport services for people.

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Priority for public transport development policy was listed as one of the main points of the State Council for the first time in 2007, and for the first time public transport development priority was mentioned in the State Council’s official document, ‘Comprehensive Energy Reduction Work Program’. The document said that cities should ‘speed up the construction of rapid public transport and metro’ to reduce energy consumption in urban transport. The function of urban public transport management shifted to the Ministry of Transportation from 2008. Increasing the public transport modal share to 40% for cities with a population over 10 million has been proposed in ‘Twelfth five-years urban public transport development outline’ by the ministry. The Urban Public Transport Regulation is now considering the proposal.1 Because of the decentralization of government functions, municipal governments take primary responsibilities for urban transport, and the capacity at the city level is very limited for most cities. Technical standards were needed to guide the planning practice at the city level. The technical standards for urban land use, such as ‘Classification of Land in Cities and Standards for Land Use of Construction Project’ (The Ministry of Construction of PRC, 1990) and the strict agriculture land protection policy (such as forbidding detached houses), guarantee relative high housing density, which may contribute to short travel distances. Several items within the state code of Urban Road Transportation Plan and Design Criterion (GB 50220-95) are very important to guarantee space for public transport, bicycles and pedestrians in urban planning and design:  Facilities in bus stations, vehicle maintenance stations, commutating stations, etc., should match the development scale of public transport, and land for that purpose should be guaranteed in the master plan.  Segregated bike lanes must be constructed along major urban roads. It is very important for people to ride bicycles safely. In planning, we should establish a network that can assure the continuous movement of bicycles, comprising separate roads for bicycles, paths for bicycles on the sides of arteries, city branch roads and roads in residential areas.  The bus service coverage rate at radius of 300 metres should not be less than 50% of the city land-use area. The bus service coverage rate at radius of 500 metres should not less than 90%. Those requirements are very positive for sustainable development. However in mid-1990s, to improve productivity of public transport service and to reduce the government’s financial burden, bus enterprises revised the contract with bus drivers and conductors, whose income is now tied to ticket sales. The market-driven principle in public transport is the major obstacle

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to adjusting bus networks to improve service in areas of less demand while many bus lines run on major roads. Public transport is also seriously threatened by growing road congestion, long queues at bus stops and the continuing shift to private cars. With the expansion of a city, the road network – instead of the public transport network – is commonly used in urban master plans as an instrument to shape the urban land use. Local governments now face increasing political pressure to improve mobility for all the people. Beijing is the first city to implement a single low fare for public transport with heavy public subsidies and the first city to run bus rapid transit in China. Shanghai recognized long ago that it is impossible to accommodate the fast motorization in city, and an auction policy for car license plates has been used to control car ownership, despite heavy criticism by car industry lobbies. In the meantime heavy investment has been put on metro construction (Fig. 3). With strong support of local government, Hangzhou is the first city in China to apply public transport priority policy to a public bike renting system. It is now widespread in the city and draws much attention from other Chinese cities trying to pursue a low-carbon city strategy. Comparing the car ownership of Beijing and Shanghai, it is clear that urban transport strategy at the city level is very important for sustainable development. Private car ownership and use are determined not only by household incomes, but also by city-specific factors such as urban spatial structure, parking space available, availability of alternative transport modes and especially public policy. Beijing and Shanghai are two mega-cities with

Fig. 3.

Metro Network Length in Shanghai.

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Fig. 4.

Private Cars in Beijing and Shanghai (Million).

comparable per capita incomes and population sizes, but Beijing has far more private cars than Shanghai (Fig. 4). While land use and transport conditions differ between the two cities, local policy interventions such as tight control of car ownership in Shanghai appear to have helped slow down the growth of private cars there. The growth of private car ownership in cities will continue to be driven strongly by household income growth, but its pace could be guided by local public policies. Controls on car density will also provide local governments with time to develop high-quality public transport systems. A coordinated regional policy is also very important. Although Shanghai has tight control of car ownership, the areas surrounding Shanghai have no limits to car ownership, and many cars bearing license plates from other provinces can be seen driving in Shanghai. Shanghai has been forced to expend the motorways to surrounding provinces to accommodate the growing car/truck traffic between Shanghai and other cities.

INTEGRATION OF URBAN TRAVEL AND LAND-USE POLICY Urban planning legislation has been established since 1989. All the land in urban areas is owned by local governments, so that cities can plan for both

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land use and transport infrastructure on a large scale. The urban planning process is supposed to provide a blueprint for sustainable urban transport development. Generally the development direction and land use will be studied. Regional transport infrastructure is the major concern in master plans, and specific sections on urban transport strategy and infrastructure include plans for:  The road network.  Public transport network, facilities, terminals, etc.  Parking spaces. Construction of the road network will have a high priority in the plan. After the master plan has been approved or while it is being prepared, urban transport planning with a detailed travel survey will be conducted to verify and refine the urban transport strategy and the capacity of transport infrastructure based on the master plan’s projection of land-use patterns and population. For example, in Guangzhou the Refined Metro Network Plan with a 750 km metro network and Refined Road Network Plan was prepared in 2008, after the approval of the Revised Guangzhou City Master Plan (2001–2010) in 2005 by State Council. In the largest cities, plans for rapid public transport will be prepared, especially for the metro system but also for bus rapid transit. Because of the high construction and operation cost of metros, a city needs permission from the National Development and Reform Commission. From the experience of transit-oriented development in Hong Kong and Japan, highdensity development around metro stations within a radius of 1,500 metres is encouraged (Shanghai Urban Planning Bureau, 2010). The Nine Cloud project, located at Zhongshan Park Station of Metro Line 3 in Shanghai (Fig. 5), occupied an area of 2.59 km2. Because the developers provided a connection between Metro Line 3 and Metro Line 2, they received an incentive to increase the development density to a floor area ratio (FAR) of 8.04 from the original FAR of 6.7. Now the project is a prosperous subcentre in Shanghai. Each city is now asked to provide public transport service in areas of urban expansion and improve the service in the built-up area of the city. Many medium-sized cities are preparing a public transport plan to implement the strategy mentioned in master plan. The authority responsible for public transport service will take this plan as a reference for:  Land allocation from the government for public transport facilities such as bus stations, terminals and maintenance yards.

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 Definition of the public transport corridor for new bus lines and stops.  Requests for subsidies from government budgets. According to the Code for Planning and Design on Urban Residential Areas (The Ministry of Construction of PRC, 2002), we still emphasize the concept of the neighbourhood unit to provide residential areas with basic public service facilities such as a vegetable market, primary school and health care service. This regulation can shorten the travel distance to basic services accessible by non-motorized transport. According to the Code, the layout of residential areas can be divided into residential district, residential quarter and residential clusters, as well as independent clusters (Table 3). The construction of public buildings in residential areas should be in accordance with the population and the facilities must be incorporated into

Fig. 5.

The Location of Nine Cloud Project in Shanghai.

Table 3.

Households Population

Population of Residential Areas.

Residential District

Residential Quarter

Residential Cluster

10,000–15,000 30,000–50,000

2,000–4,000 7,000–15,000

300–700 1,000–3,000

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planning, built and put into use at the same time as residential buildings. In urbanized areas, the ground floor is allocated for shops and small offices. The index provides a basic criterion for designing urban residential areas (Table 4). Meanwhile, real estate development enterprises will also make their decisions on household types and facility distribution according to market demands. However, during the actual process of development, because the local government cannot always provide a beautiful, healthy and green environment, some residential districts will be enclosed by walls, thus resulting in a super street block which is less accessible by nonmotorized transport. The distance to bus stops will be greater than the acceptable walking distance, and the result will be more private motorized trips (Pan, Shen, & Zhang, 2009). However, the master plan has weaknesses. The first problem is that usually the master plan is too ambitious, covering a wide range of subjects related to urban development with limited information available on performance. There little analysis of the vision to be realized. For example, the vision to make the urban public transport system a backbone of development has been stated in almost each city’s master plan, but even now, the transport modal split by bus is only 10–20% on average. Some cities have increased the modal share of public transport at the cost of walking and bicycling. More road space is allocated to accommodate motorized modes of transport. More attention has been put on efficiency than on sustainable development in urban planning. The second challenge facing most large cities in China is how to overcome the inherent rigidity of the urban master plan to provide the necessary flexibility for meeting the rapidly growing demand for urban services. Currently, the process produces a 20-year urban master plan and a number of associated sectional plans for a planning area defined by jurisdiction. But many unanticipated events arrive to impact the implementation of the master plan, such as population growth, national economic development strategy and regional transport infrastructure. For example, Guangzhou must adjust its well-planned metro network to connect it to the high speed train station, which the national railway authority decided to locate far from Guangzhou city. The local government can also adjust the master plan through short-term construction plans. Because the short-term construction plan gives less consideration to coherence with sustainable development goals, it will be very difficult to organize a green transport system. The policy of giving priority to urban public transport can only be applied to a central city or a planned urban area. Transport planning beyond the

Administration

Infrastructure

Culture and Entertainment Commercial Community Service Financial

Education Hospital

Total

Table 4.

1,668–3,293 2,228–4,213 600–1,200 78–198 178–398 125–245 708–910 59–464 20–30 60–80 40–150 460–820 46–96

Building Area

70–360 500–960 37–72

2,172–5,559 2,762–6,329 1,000–2,400 138–378 298–548 225–645 600–940 76–668 25–50

Land Area

Residential District

30–140 400–720 –

45–75 450–570 59–292 16–22

968–2,397 1,338–2,977 330–1,200 38–98

Building Area

50–140 450–760 –

65–105 100–600 76–328 22–34

1,091–3,935 1,491–4,585 708–2,400 78–228

Land Area

Residential Quarter

9–10 350–510 –

18–24 150–370 19–32 –

362–856 703–1,356 160–400 6–20

Building Area

20–30 400–550 –

40–60 100–400 16–28 –

488–1,058 868–1,578 300–500 12–40

Land Area

Residential Cluster

Residential Public Service Facilities Standard (m2) per 1000 Residents.

56 HAIXIAO PAN

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57

planned urban area is always dominated by a highway network to link towns or lower tier settlements. With the growth in income for people in the urban periphery, motorization is much faster than in the central part of the city. One survey shows that people living close to the city centre have a high proportion of trips by bicycle and on foot and consume less energy for transport (Nass, 2010).

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION Regarding environmental protection, the Air Pollution Control Act was passed in 1987 and revised in 1995 and 2000. Even before 1983, motor vehicle emission standards had been promulgated. In 2000, Phase 1 of national vehicle emission standards was implemented. Phase III emission standards have been implemented since 2007. In urban planning we must follow the ‘State Ambient Air Quality Standard’ (GB3095-1996) when assigning air quality standards according to the planned land use. The Air Protection Act provides that ‘The State encourages and supports the production and use of high-quality fuel, to reduce the harmful substances in air pollution’. In 2000 China began to implement lead-free gasoline. At present, China has a motor vehicle inspection system. In 2009, 99.09 million motorized vehicles were inspected, accounting for about 58% of the vehicle fleet (China Ministry of Environment Protection, 2010). In January 2009, the Ministry of Finance and Administration of Taxation issued a ‘Purchasing Tax Reduction for the Car with Less Than 1.6 L Displacement Notice’. In 2008 the State Council issued ‘The State Council on Further Strengthening the Fuel-Efficient and Energy-Saving Work’, which proposed ‘to encourage use of environmentally friendly vehicles with low fuel consumption, energy-saving and clean energy vehicles, to reduce the consumption tax rate for low-emission passenger vehicles, to increase the consumption tax rate for passenger cars with large displacement, and further expand the consumption tax rate gap between different small and large cars’. However, there is no local urban planning and transport policy to support this national policy to encourage smaller cars. Along with the rapid urbanization and motorization, motorized vehicle emissions have created serious environmental problems, especially air and noise pollution. Pollution created by urban transport not only has a high economic and environment cost, but also threatens public health. Environmental monitoring in 2009 showed that one third of the 113 national key environmental protection cities cannot meet the urban air quality

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standards. Urban air pollution reflects the complex characteristics of both burning coal and motorized vehicle exhaust in many cities. In some cities acid rain and photochemical smog and other air pollution problems have occurred frequently, and many of these problems are related to motorized vehicle emissions of nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and other pollutants. The source of air pollution in Shanghai is a combination of oil and soot. Through the adjustment of the energy source structure, soot is controlled effectively, but the pollution by tailpipe emission in the centre city is still serious. The pollutant is mainly the NOx discharged by the motor vehicles. In 2009, the average density of nitrogen dioxide in the city was 0.053 mg per cubic metre, which had decreased by 0.002 mg per cubic metres compared with 2005. The average density of particulates in urban areas decreased by 0.006 mg per cubic metre in the same period of time (Table 5). Beijing air quality has also improved (Table 6).

Air Quality in Shanghai.

Table 5. 2

Year

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3

PM(mg/m3)

NO (mg/m )

SO2(mg/m3)

City Proper

Suburban

Whole City

City Proper

City Proper

Suburban

Whole City

0.061 0.055 0.061 0.062 0.057

0.049 – 0.051 0.049 0.046

0.055 0.057 0.056 0.056 0.053

0.088 0.086 0.089 0.085 0.082

0.061 0.051 0.058 0.056 0.038

0.031 – 0.055 0.048 0.038

0.043 0.051 0.056 0.051 0.035

Source: Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau.

Table 6.

Air Quality in Beijing.

Year

NO2 (mg/m3)

PM(mg/m3)

SO2(mg/m3)

2000 2003 2005 2009

0.071 0.072 0.066 0.053

0.161 0.141 0.142 0.121

0.071 0.061 0.050 0.034

Source: Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau.

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To improve air quality, some measures and polices have been pursued in Shanghai and other cities, including:  Strict environmental standards for new cars. Phase IV emission standards have been applied.  Pollution inspections. Strict street inspections and yearly inspections are desirable.  Clean fuel for public transportation, including taxi fleets that should be renewed.  Traffic management regulating traffic flow, and licence auctions to control traffic volume, reducing congestion in central cities and reducing mobile pollution.  Preferential public transportation development. In Beijing and Shanghai the planned metro networks cover more than 1,000 km. More than ten cities in China, including Hangzhou, Xiamen, Jinan and Guangzhou, have established bus rapid transit systems after the first such line opened in Beijing in 2005. Good metro networks can encourage the transfer from private mode to public transportation with park and ride facilities near metro stations.  Strict control of motorcycles. Shanghai and many other cities prohibit them to reduce the traffic noise and improve safety.  Green licence policy, implemented in Shanghai to eliminate heavy pollution from motorized vehicles in the city centre.  Public bike systems connected to metro stations to provide ‘last kilometre’ transport in suburban Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuhan and other cities.  Bike networks in Hangzhou, Shanghai and other cities.  Parking control at destinations, with higher rates in the city centre or where public transport accessibility is high.

SOCIAL EQUITY ISSUES IN TRANSPORT Improvements in urban transport facilities greatly enhance mobility, with a twofold effect: Urban transport construction plays a positive role in enlarging the opportunity of urban employment and living activities, but without adequate policy it can also lead to social segregation. Despite the rapid growth in private cars, the majority of urban households are car-less. Their mobility needs have been seriously underserved by the established practice that commits so many available resources

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to meeting the demand for automobile mobility. Even now the nonmotorized modal split in transport is still very high (Table 7). Thanks to the availability of bikes and the high density of development, low-income people can still have basic mobility. In Shangyu City, a survey in 2009 shows that 40.8% of low-income people travel by bike, while 29.6% of high-income people travel by car (Table 8). In recent years, Shanghai’s city centre is undergoing large scale urban redevelopment. Many people have been relocated to the urban periphery to leave the space in the city centre for transport infrastructure or commercial property development for the service industry. Low-income people cannot choose where to live. They have to stay where the government relocation building is located. Travel time is increased much more for people forced to move to relocation housing in the urban periphery than for those who can select their apartment (Table 9).

Table 7. Modal Split in Shanghai (%). Year

Walking

Non-Motor Vehicle

Public Transport

Private Motor Vehicle

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.2

30.0 30.0 29.9 29.4 28.6

24.5 24.4 23.8 24.4 25.2

18.4 18.7 19.4 19.4 20.0

Table 8.

Low Middle High

Modal Split by Income Group in Shangyu City (2009). Walking

Bike

Bus

Car

Other

37.6% 22.5% 54.1%

40.8% 44.7% 11.5%

14.1% 13.0% 2.7%

6.1% 19.0% 29.6%

1.5% 0.9% 2.2%

Table 9.

Increased travel time (min)

Travel Time After Moving. Self-Selection

Forced to Move

17.9

51.9

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Implementing Sustainable Urban Travel Policies in China

Due to the developed road system and insufficient public transport, rich people with private cars have enjoyed the benefits of road investment that should have been enjoyed by all society. Travel time for medium-income and low-income people in periphery areas has failed to dramatically improve. The ‘2006 Questionnaire on Travel of Urban Residents in Shanghai’ selected three periphery residential areas including Xinzhuang, Sanlin and Jiangqiao. Analysis shows that 64.5% of high-income respondents spend less than 30 minutes in a trip to the central area and only 6.5% of them spend more than 60 minutes. About 40% of medium-income respondents spend less than 30 minutes in a trip and another 40% spend 30–60 minutes. However, 38.5% of low-income respondents spend 30–60 minutes in a trip and 27% spend more than 60 minutes (Table 10). This analysis also shows that 36% of high-income respondents mainly travel by car and 26% by metro. They seldom ride bicycles. For mediumincome respondents, 18% choose to walk, 29.5% by bus and 28.3% by metro. For low-income respondents, 72.4% choose to walk and take buses, and they seldom take taxis or metro because of the expense. The minimum two-way metro tickets cost 17.7% of the daily income for low-income people (Fig. 6). Government has made great efforts to improve transport systems and accessibility of periphery areas, but such efforts may be more beneficial to those with higher incomes than those with lower incomes. In Beijing, because of the low-fare policy, travel expense for low-income people is much lower than in Shanghai. In the largest cities and metropolitan areas, the number of migrant workers has grown to 20–40% of the total population. Their transport needs receive little attention. No city has analysed their travel patterns in the planning process. Ironically, the practice favouring cars also fails to satisfy the longerterm mobility needs of the car-owning population. The freedom of mobility

Table 10. Item

High income Middle income Low income

Travel Time from the Periphery Areas to the Central Area of City. Number of Respondents

o30 Minutes

% of Total

30–60 Minutes

% of Total

W60 Minutes

% of Total

93 280 319

60 111 110

64.5% 39.6% 34.5%

27 110 123

29.0% 39.3% 38.5%

6 59 86

6.5% 21.1% 27.0%

Source: 2006 Questionnaire on Travel of Urban Residents in Shanghai.

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70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Low-income

Walking transfer bus Private cars

Fig. 6.

Middle-income income TAXI Motorcycle

High-income

Bicycle transfer bus

Bicycle

Bus

UMT

Travel Mode from Periphery Areas to the Central Area of City. Source: 2006 Questionnaire on Travel of Urban Residents in Shanghai.

enjoyed by them is short-lived, and many motorists find themselves frequently sitting in gridlock during the peak travel hours. With a well-equipped motorway system in Beijing, people are still despairing of the frequent traffic congestion. Gridlock reduces mobility for all people using roads. Recently several urban transport policies have been applied in different cities to address development of urban–rural integration, high travel cost and non-motorized travel. Previously, the policy of public transport priority has been applied only within the built up area of a city. Public transport in periphery areas is still far from developed, with problems like insufficient bus lines, long waiting times, crowded buses, early ending of operation in the evening, improper station locations, etc. When better public transport service is provided for the disadvantaged living in suburban areas, convenient mobility can be ensured for the residents. With the policy of urban–rural integration, most cities have extended public transport to suburban areas, linking each village with a bus line since 2005. To reduce travel expense and attract the people to use public transport, from 1 January 2007, Beijing has begun to implement a transit priority strategy. Bus passes have been cancelled. The fare of a public transport ticket, CNY 0.4, is 40% of the original fare, and students have an 80%

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discount for public transport. Beijing’s low-fare public transport reform triggered a storm of low-cost public transport. Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Nanjing, Jinan, Hangzhou and other cities said they would increase efforts to support public transport. By the end of June 2007, the city of Shanghai had implemented preferential ticket prices for transfer on all the 396 bus lines within the inner ring, and now this policy has been applied to all the public transport in Shanghai. There are about 10 million bicycles in Shanghai. Most low-income people still can afford a bike. However, bicycle lanes have been reduced, which forced bicycle riders to ride on sidewalks, in potential conflict with pedestrians. Enormous investments on urban transport facilities are car-oriented rather than human-oriented, so that the interests and rights of bicycle riders have been seriously affected. In order to change this situation, ‘Research on Non-motorized Vehicle Transport Planning in Central City of Shanghai’ was conducted in June 2006. In Beijing, authorities have declared they will eliminate any obstacle to bike use. The local people’s representative congress is a platform for local people to express their opinions and complaints about urban transport. In Shanghai, for example, the bike path along the middle ring road in Shanghai was provided by the mayor as a result of opinions expressed at a people’s representative congress.

ACCESSIBILITY FOR PEOPLE WITH REDUCED MOBILITY According to survey data in 2006, there are 82.96 million disabled people, or 6.34% of the total population. The disabled population by category is listed in Table 11. A report on the demographics of an ageing society from the National Ageing Work Committee shows that China is adding 5.96 million people to the elderly population each year. By 2020 the elderly population will be 248 million, of whom 12.3% will be over 80 years old. In 2050, the total elderly population will reach 400 million, 21.78% of whom will be older than 80. With the improvement of living standards and health conditions, the percentage of disabled people due to ageing is increasing. Barrier-free transport is a prerequisite for the disabled, the elderly and other special groups to participate in social life. It is also benefit for all society and is an important symbol of social civilization and progress.

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Table 11. Category Visual Hearing Speech Physical Intellectual Mental Multiple

Disabled Population by Category. Population (Million)

% of All Disabled

12.33 20.04 1.27 24.12 5.54 6.14 13.52

14.86 24.16 1.53 29.07 6.68 7.40 16.30

In 1986, the Ministry of Construction, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, and the China Foundation for Disabled Persons jointly produced China’s first norms for barrier-free facilities, ‘Specification to Facilitate People with Disabilities in the Urban Roads and Buildings Design’. The Protection of Disabled Persons law was issued in 1990 to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of disabled persons, and protect the right of persons with disabilities to an equal and full participation in social life, material and cultural achievements. It stated that specifications should be implemented so that urban roads and buildings are accessible to disabled people. Huge achievements have been made in barrier-free facility construction. In Shanghai, for example, 25,150 barrier-free projects have been implemented in public buildings, and paths for the blind with a total length of 2,034.8 km were constructed from 2003 to 2007. All the new metro lines are accessible to disabled people and a special service programme in the metro is prepared for them on request. In 2004, Beijing introduced the ‘Barrier-Free Facilities Construction and Management Regulations’, which state that barrier-free facilities must be provided in new road construction or expansion and the renovation of roads. All existing roads must meet the ‘Specification for Urban Roads and Buildings Accessible Design’. This is the first local legislation in mainland China on construction and management of barrier-free facilities. During 2005–2006, Beijing Municipal Government and relevant departments compiled the ‘Barrier-Free Facilities Construction and Renovation Planning Guidance’ to coordinate various norms and standards related to construction and renovation work on barrier-free facilities. Based on this guideline, ‘Detailed Instruction on Barrier-Free Facilities Construction and Renovation’ has been prepared by 10 government departments. In the first half of 2010, the Beijing Municipal Planning Commission and the Beijing Quality and Technical Supervision jointly issued ‘Urban Rail

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Transit Barrier-Free Design Guideline’, which sets the technical standards for design and acceptance inspection of new metro lines. In 2010, there are 140 lifts and 120 accessible platforms in 123 stations of eight metro lines. Each station has at least has one access for wheelchairs. Relevant departments have also developed ‘Wheelchair-Bound Disabled Passenger Service Specifications’, ‘Visually Handicapped Passenger Service Standards’, ‘Physically Disabled Wheelchair Passenger Service Specifications’, ‘Deaf Passenger Service Standards’ and other technical specifications for making services accessible to disabled persons. Services can be reserved by telephone. In addition, passengers can easily query the Beijing Metro official website providing information of barrier-free facilities at each station (Fig. 7). In order to meet the individual needs of persons with wheelchairs in Beijing, the city established a barrier-free taxi service with 70 uniquely marked taxis in May 2008. People in the central city can reserve the service two hours in advance, and in the suburban area one day in advance. Fares are the same as for normal taxis. During the 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Games, Beijing launched dozens of barrier-free bus lines, each line equipped with 20–30 barrier-free buses. Road-side facilities also improved around bus stops, with paths for the blind, Braille stop signs and wheelchair waiting positions. Ten accessible bus lines were retained as permanent lines after the Games. As the end of August 2010, a total of 3,600 accessible buses have been put into operation in Beijing, accounting for 16.6% of the total number of buses. Beijing now has the largest barrier-free bus fleet in China. China’s first barrier-free public transportation hub was the zoo transit hub built in Beijing in August 2010.

Fig. 7.

Website Barrier-Free Information of Beijing Metro.

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Shanghai only has 30 barrier-free buses in five bus lines. In Shanghai it is nearly impossible for disabled people to use the bus service because people cannot know when the barrier-free bus will arrive. We must now pay great attention in barrier-free transport construction in China. There is much to do in this field. In November 2007, the Ministry of Construction, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the National Committee on Ageing and the China Disabled Persons Federation jointly launched a national demonstration activity for barrierfree city construction in 100 cities, which includes barrier-free construction management, urban road construction and renovation, public buildings, construction and reconstruction of special facilities, barrier-free residential quarters, barrier-free residential construction, accessible public transport and information for disabled people. This event highlights the importance of accessibility to public transport in urban areas for disabled people. In 2008, the revised Disabled People Protection Law clearly states the importance of an accessible environment for disabled people in construction of facilities, information exchange and accessibility planning.

PUBLIC TRANSPORT FINANCE The cost of providing an urban transport infrastructure to carry the increasing traffic is high. Urban transport investment in Beijing and Shanghai, for instance, accounted for 5% of each municipality’s GDP. Significant capital investment has been made to expand the capacity of transport infrastructure, especially the road network. In Shanghai the proportion of metro investment has been diminishing as a percentage of overall transport investment (Fig. 8). Explosive urban growth has increased demand for urban transport services, and decentralization has shifted much of the responsibility for providing these services to local government. Local government has to raise money, mainly through off-budget funds, which include borrowing through city-owned infrastructure investment companies, imposing surcharges, accepting donations and granting land concessions. Land concessions are a major source of off-budget revenue for urban transport, especially for metro construction, but they are not a sustainable source of revenue. Metro systems have the highest fixed costs. Therefore, metro in mainland China is usually treated as a social benefit, and most systems are publicly owned by local governments. Beginning in 2001, the funding source and strategy for metros in China become more diversified. Table 12 illustrates

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Implementing Sustainable Urban Travel Policies in China

Fig. 8.

Table 12.

Summary of Financial Methods and Financial Sources for Metro Construction in China.

Cities Beijing

Shanghai

Guangzhou

Shenzhen

Transport Investment in Shanghai.

Financial Method Lines 1 and 2 Line 4

Public owned Public–Private Partnership

Line 9

DBFO

Line Olympic

BT

Line 1

Consortium Loan

Line 2

Consortium Loan

Line 3

Consortium Loan

Line 1

Consortium Loan

Line 2

Consortium Loan

Line 4 (Phase 1)

Public owned

Financial Source Local government Beijing Infrastructure Investment Co. Ltd.: 2% Beijing Capital Group: 49% Hong Kong MTR Corp.: 49% Government: 70%, private entity: 30% Built by China Railway and bought by local government City government and foreign investment Foreign loan: 1/3, city government: 1/3, local government: 1/3 Foreign investment: 18.7%, local bank loan 49%, government direct investment: 32% Foreign loan, local bank loan, government direct investment Government: 60.35%; commercial bank: 39.65% Government: 70%, commercial bank: 30%

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the different financial methods and funding sources for metro in some Chinese cities. Shanghai The rail-based public transport system is constructed with government investment, with 42% of financing from revenue and 58% from bank loans. It is operated by Shentong Rail Co., and Line 1 is a joint-stock company. Beijing The Beijing Metro Line 4 (BJL4) was built through a public-private partnership between the Beijing Capital Group, Beijing Infrastructure Investment Co. Ltd. and Hong Kong MTR Corp. This project marked mainland China’s first public-private partnership for the development and operation of a metro system. Under a 30-year operating franchise, the buildoperate-transfer contract allows Hong Kong MTR Corp. to integrate its expertise in the construction and operation of the metro. Shenzhen Phase 1 of Shenzhen Metro Line 4 was entirely built by local government. Phase 2 will be 100% funded by Hong Kong MTR Corp. as an investment. For this project, MTR has established a subsidiary company in Shenzhen, MTR Corp. (Shenzhen) Ltd., to undertake the project management. This project is the first application in mainland China of the rail and property management business model. Because of high construction and operation cost, an over ambitious metro network may result in heavy financial burden on government. With the increasing of the metro network size (Fig. 9), the number of passengers carried per kilometre is declining (Pan, 2008). Before 2007 there was very limited government financial support for surface public transport. In Shanghai the subsidy to surface public transport had not increased for 10 years until 2007. In December 2006 the Ministry of Construction, Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Labor and Social Security issued the ‘Advice on Economic Policy for Priority Development of Urban Public Transport’, which says that more investment and financial support should be provided to public transport in several ways:

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Fig. 9. Network Size and Passengers per Kilometre (Shanghai Metro). Note: y-axis, network length in km; x-axis, 10,000 passengers/km.

Increasing Government Financial Input  Government investment should be the mainstay of urban public transport. The public finance system should support urban public transport development, and urban public transport investment, compensation and subsidy mechanisms should be improved.  Local governments should increase their funding for urban public transport infrastructure. More attachment fees of urban public utilities, infrastructure fees and other government funds should be devoted to urban public transport.  Diversification of investment should be encouraged.

Establishing Subsidy Mechanism for Low Fares  A low fare urban public transportation policy to attract maximum passenger use and improve the efficiency of urban public transport should be encouraged.  According to the Price Act and other relevant laws, an urban public transport fare management system should be established. Urban public transport enterprises must take into account both economic and social

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benefits when setting fares and considering the operating costs of urban public transport.  City government should subsidize low fares and free fares for the elderly and disabled if they causes losses for a public transport enterprise.  Increasing costs of urban public transport due to the impact of oil price adjustments should be subsidized by the central government.

Establishing a Cost Assessment System  Subsidies should be based on a standardized evaluation system about cost and performance. Following this advice, many cities have allocated huge budgets to subsidize public transport. In 2010, Beijing spent CNY 13.5 billion to support the low-fare public transport policy (Chinese 163 news, 2010). When public transport is too crowded, there is no attractiveness for a car driver to use it.

NON-MOTORIZED TRANSPORT Mainland China used to be the country of bicycles, and there are many even now. The total number of bicycles in mainland China is about 600 million.2 In recent years, number of e-bikes has largely increased in mainland China cities. E-bikes account for 70% of traffic on bike lanes of some major roads in Shanghai. It can be observed from Fig. 10 that the number of bicycles has grown slowly since 2005, increasing 8.5% from 9.826 million to 10.665 million, while the number of e-bikes rose by 83%, from 135,800 to 248,500. Walking and cycling account for about half of all trips in Chinese urban areas, and they receive some funding for infrastructure provision. For decades, roads in many Chinese cities generally provided separate facilities for walking and cycling. Most Chinese cities provide pavements, crosswalks, bike lanes, and special traffic signals for pedestrians and cyclists. One of the main reasons is that the Urban Road Transport Plan and Design Code (GB 50220-95) requires pavements which bicycles can also use to be built on main roads and subsidiary roads. Pedestrians and cyclists continue to account for a high percentage of total travel in China. However, in recent years the automobile industry has greatly developed in mainland China, which has posed a challenge to development of bicycle transport. In many cities the modal split for bicycles

Implementing Sustainable Urban Travel Policies in China

Fig. 10.

71

Bikes and E-Bikes in Shanghai.

has dropped by a big margin (Pucher, Peng, Mittal, Zhu, & Korattyswaroopam, 2007). Since 2000, many Chinese cities have begun restricting bikes on key arteries and central city streets. The large volume of relatively slowmoving bicycles in every Chinese city is viewed by government officials as a major source of road congestion, since bicycles get in the way of fastermoving motorized vehicles, especially at intersections. Based on the illusion of a statement regarding the dominating role of public transport with the supposed policy of public transport priority in urban transport planning, many cities throughout China have begun to restrict or prohibit bicycles on busy roads during peak travel times, especially in the central city. Moreover, several cities have cancelled previous plans for new bike lane and bicycle streets. In Guangzhou and Shenzhen, bicycle travel has dropped sharply. The cities of Shanghai and Nanjing have even established official goals of reducing the bicycle share of trips to about half their current share. From Fig. 11, it can be seen that in Shanghai the modal split for bicycles has declined slowly, while in Beijing it has rapidly dropped from 30.3% in 2005 to 18.1% in 2009. The main reason is the great increase in the number of automobiles, and much space previously used for bikes has been devoted to car traffic lanes or parking space, thus having a negative effect on bicycle transport. Separate bike facilities that are being built are mainly intended to get bicycles off the roads and out of the way of motor vehicles. New transport policy guidelines issued by the central government in 2006 seem to suggest a new, more hopeful direction. They recommend that local

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Fig. 11.

Modal Split by Bike and E-Bike.

governments encourage bicycle transport by preserving and improving bike facilities. With the rise of progressive concepts of low-carbon cities and green transport, some Chinese mainland cities have put great emphasis on bicycle transport and have begun building specific bicycle lanes. For example, Shanghai has planned a specific non-motorized transport network. Beijing has planned to establish two bicycle demonstration zones which will have dense bicycle networks and specific bicycle parking around bus stations and metro stations, in order to increase ratio of bicycle riding (China News, 2010). Hangzhou was the first city in China to establish a public bike system with the strong support of local government. Currently, many cities in mainland China want to introduce public bike programmes (Fig. 12). Cities that have implemented or prepare to introduce public bike programmes include Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Jinan, Changzhou and Sonya. Among them, Hangzhou has the largest scale in public bikes. Most of the projects were financed by local government. For example, in Hangzhou several hundred million yuan was invested in public bike system. In Shanghai the public-private partnership model was followed with the cooperation of a professional bike company and local government. Mainland China has clearly defined in Urban Road Transport Plan and Design Code (GB 50220-95) that the design of pedestrian transportation system in city should satisfy the requirements of pedestrians, ensure traffic security and the continuity of pedestrian voyages. The planning of

Implementing Sustainable Urban Travel Policies in China

Fig. 12.

73

Public Bikes in Several Chinese Cities.

pavements, pedestrian bridges, pedestrian metros, shopping malls, urban river bank pavement or shady pavements should be tightly connected with the pedestrian system connecting to bus stations, passenger terminal squares, and public transport interchange. The whole should form an intact urban pedestrian system. Construction of pedestrian systems has gradually received much attention in mainland China, especially in large and mediumsized cities such as Shanghai, Chongqing, Wuhan and Xiamen, all of which have begun planning non-motorized transport systems or specific pedestrian systems and are building pedestrian lanes or pedestrian zones. In 2001, in White Paper of Shanghai Urban Transport Development, the Shanghai government first formally declared that importance should be attached to non-motorized transport.

CONCLUSIONS The challenges ahead to implement sustainable urban transport policy will be tremendous. China is undergoing rapid and simultaneous urbanization, motorization and industrialization, a process that no other country has experienced. We cannot sustain endless motorization in China. If the current fast motorization continues, and we are still trying to adapt cities to accept more cars without proper public policy intervention, it will result in a wide road network, distorted land-use structure and less control on car use.

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Endless motorization will soon result in fast exhaustion of fossil fuels, clean air and valuable farmland and space, and will promote the widening of social inequality. Living in the dense urban environment will be more harmful to health due to pollution from cars. Tailpipe gas emissions are now a major source of pollution in cities. The concept of sustainable development had been widely talked about in China but has not yet been effectively translated into actions in urban transport. For many cities, we may miss the best opportunities to implement sustainable urban transport strategy. Some recommendations are proposed below.

Strengthening the Synchronization of Central Government with Local Government on Sustainable Transport Strategy There is stronger political will from central government to realize the ‘energy saving, environment friendly’ and harmonious society, but local government has more responsibility for urban planning and local transport strategy. Pressured by the demands of economic growth, cities are chasing endless urgent problems one by one and cannot put priority on sustainable development, so more efforts are needed to enhance the capacity of local government. There are also conflicts between government departments, and establishing consensus is a prerequisite to achieving sustainable development.

Implementing the Car Restriction Policy in Cities Nationwide Currently car ownership is very low in China, and for most people the car is not an essential tool for living. But if most people establish a lifestyle that depends upon the car, then it will be very difficult to reverse the process. It is better to apply economic measures such auctioning licences and charging tolls and parking fees to control car ownership or usage. The revenue can be used to improve public transport. This policy must be applied nationwide; otherwise it will be useless or result in conflicts between cities.

Adopting Car-Less Principles in Urban Planning In current urban planning practices, land use is shaped by the road network. This implies that more people will use cars as incomes grow. The level of

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access to public transport should be used as a criterion for granting development permission or for collecting an impact fee from projects which cannot meet the basic requirement. Poly-centric urban forms with highquality public transport links to the employment/activity centres should be encouraged to shorten travel distances, and high-quality public transport should be provided as a competent alternative to choosing a car for longdistance travel. Putting Top Priority on Pedestrians and Bicycles In China, because the urban fabric evolved slowly for a long time with the characteristics of mixed use and high density, non-motorized travel still plays an important role. When top priority is given to pedestrians and bike users, the desire to drive a car will decline. A high-quality pedestrian environment is also good for encouraging ageing people to take part in outdoor activities. Guaranteeing Equity in Transport Construction and Service Provision with a Target Oriented Policy In the case of Shanghai, even a high-quality public transport project like the metro system cannot automatically ensure social equity due to the high fares. A specific policy must be prepared to target all social groups instead of a standardized solution which benefits privileged people in most cases. Public participation must be encouraged in decision making. Establishing Public Transport Priority Development Corridors During urban expansion, public transport priority development corridors should be constructed with metro, bus rapid transit or bus lanes before people have become used to cars to access activities or living space. Highdensity development should be encouraged along this corridor so there will be enough passengers to ensure economic vitality and service quality of the public transport.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This chapter was produced as background for the 2011 International Transport Forum, on 25–27 May in Leipzig, Germany, on Transport for

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Society. The views expressed in this chapter do not necessarily reflect those of the member countries of the International Transport Forum. We are grateful to the International Transport Forum for permission to re-publish the original document in this book. Further information about the International Transport Forum is available at http://www.internationaltransportforum.org

NOTES 1. Retrieved from http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2010-10/22/content_1728326.htm 2. Retrieved from http://www.northtiger.bokee.com/3613786.html. Accessed on 25 September 2012.

REFERENCES China Ministry of Environment Protection. (2010). China vehicle emission control annual report, China Environment Science Press, Beijing. China News. (2010). New Policy to Encourage Cycle in Beijing. Retrieved from http:// news.163.com/10/0124/07/5TPB6MVK000120GU.html. Accessed on September 25, 2012. Chinese 163 news. (2010). New Policy to Encourage Cycle in Beijing. Retrieved from http:// news.sina.com.cn/c/2011-01-02/013221747073.shtml. Accessed on September 25, 2012. Jin, S. (2008). WWF starting the China low-carbon city development project. Environmental Protection, 2A, 22. The Ministry of Construction of PRC. (1990, March). Classification of land in cities and standards for land use of construction project, China Environment Science Press, Beijing. The Ministry of Construction of PRC. (2002, March). Code for planning and design on urban residential areas. Nass, P. (2010). Residential location, travel, and energy use in Hangzhou metropolitan area. The Journal of Transport and Land Use, 3(3), 27–59. National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. (2007). China statistical yearbook 2007 (p. 1028). Beijing: China Statistics Press. Niu, W. (2002). 2001-2002 China Urban Development Report. Xiyuan Press, Beijing. Pan, H., (2008). Urban rail and sustainable development. Urban Transport, 2008(4), 35–39. Pan, H., Shen, Q., & Zhang, M. (2009). Influence of urban form on travel behavior in four neighborhoods of Shanghai. Urban Studies, 46(2), 274–294. Pucher, J., Peng, Z., Mittal, N., Zhu, Y., & Korattyswaroopam, N. (2007, July). Urban transport trends and policies in China and India: Impacts of rapid economic growth. Transport Reviews, 27(4), 379–410. Shanghai Urban Planning Bureau. (2010, December). Technical specification for regulatory detailed plan of Shanghai. Shanghai: Author. Zhu, C. (2007). Holding an objective view of the grim situation of china’s energy conservation & pollution reduction. Sino-Global Energy, 5, 1–6.

SECTION 2 APPROACHES TO POLICY FORMULATION

CHAPTER 4 THE THREE STAGES OF ACCESSIBILITY: THE COMING CHALLENGE OF URBAN MOBILITY Yves CROZET ABSTRACT Purpose – Urban transport policies are about to undergo major changes. In cities where, a few years ago, highway projects were favoured (i.e. the first stage of accessibility), other priorities are taking shape. Many large cities have opted for the development of public transit (i.e. the second stage of accessibility). Car travel would seem no longer to have any priority, despite the fact that it still accounts for bulk of transportation. Methodology – This chapter sheds light on these new tendencies by referring to the long-established concept of accessibility, and especially gravity-based accessibility, which is enjoying a new lease of life. Introducing accessibility measures within GIS tools helps us to understand why public policies are now addressing new challenges. Findings – The third stage of accessibility is characterised by a lower role given to individual time gains. A new approach is coming that pursues the collective interest by optimising land use.

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 79–97 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003006

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Research limitations/implications – In order to have the best understanding of what is at stake within the third stage of accessibility; researchers have to propose map-based tools showing the concrete impacts of accessibility changes. Practical and social implications – Those maps can show that in some cases, even transit speed can lead to some perverse effects like urban dispersion, longer distances commuted and even increased travel time budget. Originality – Sustainability issues are underlining the fact that accessibility improvements have to be obtained rather by denser catchment areas of trips than by increasing the size of the catchment areas. Keywords: Accessibility; GIS; land use; mobility; public policies; public transit

INTRODUCTION Over the last decades, Chinese cities have faced strong demographic and economic growth. However, as in other parts of the world, the improvement in the standard of living has been translated into an increase in the rate of car ownership. This has faced local political authorities with very difficult decisions, highly representative of the threats caused by the increasing pressure of cars on the use of the public space, in a growing urban area. It is therefore interesting to observe how public policies will answer them, as the process embodies an accelerated version of the three stages of accessibility, a scenario that large European cities are also facing. From an analytical point of view, the common challenge of urban mobility is accessibility. If we have more and more people living in cities (today more than 50% of the world population), and especially in big cities, it is because of the high density of opportunities offered by the concentration of people and activities. But, as explained 50 years ago (Hansen, 1959), there is a cost to reach these opportunities, a generalised cost directly linked to the monetary cost and to the time cost of mobility. Accessibility, namely the gravity accessibility concept, is presented in the first part of the chapter and illustrated by the development of a GIS tool, aiming to calculate and simulate accessibility. The second part of the chapter addresses the coming challenge of urban mobility, in developed and

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developing countries, as the combination of three stages of accessibility. These three stages of accessibility can be presented diachronically. But the most interesting point of view is to consider that the three stages are present simultaneously as is the case in Chinese cities. The third part of the chapter illustrates this point of view through a comparison between Shanghai and Beijing. These two cities are a clear illustration of these different stages. In some concluding remarks, we will present some policy recommendations. How can public policies on land-use and transport supply help to keep an acceptable level of accessibility in a context of rising travel costs? How can urban structure and transport networks be shaped in order to reduce travel demand volumes needed to fulfil the needs of urban mobility?

ACCESSIBILITY: A POWERFUL CONCEPT FACING THE CHALLENGES OF URBAN MOBILITY Cities and especially big cities have to cope with a lack of space, congestion (which suggests a lack of time) and the demands of sustainable development. But at the same time, cities continue to attract more and more inhabitants because they are producing agglomeration effects that benefit a majority of the population. Thus, to keep the positive results of agglomeration effects, they should foster proximity among their residents. For a long time, this issue of proximity was addressed in terms of space, but it is now also being approached in terms of time, via the concept of accessibility.

From Proximity to Accessibility If pedestrian cities have made accessibility rhyme with spatial proximity, motorised cities have done away with the location constraint. As far back as the 19th century in larger cities, the development of motorised transport enabled suburbs to develop at a distance from the city centre, thereby eroding the constraints imposed by a lack of space, expressed in economic terms as land rent. More recently, the widespread popularity of private cars and steady improvements in the road and motorway networks have allowed urban sprawl to such an extent that most metropolitan areas no longer bear any relation to the official city limits or morphological city boundaries. It is increasingly common for people to live several kilometres, or tens of

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kilometres, away from their workplace, from the hypermarket where they do their shopping, or from the school that their children attend every day. Addressing mobility merely as a transport issue, European policies from the 1960s to the 1980s overlooked a hidden side effect of the drive to encourage faster travel, namely spatial and social distance. The advantage of extending the range of travel, largely thanks to cars, lies in the scope to segment (or segregate) urban functions. Today we know that the dissociation of housing and employment, housing and leisure or housing and shopping has a lot of negative effects. It not only puts a certain distance between urban functions, it may also put distance between social groups. Beyond the opportunities and constraints of daily mobility, cities are emerging in which the accessibility issue is becoming acute. How can we ensure that the residents of a metropolitan area, irrespective of social rank, continue to have access to the main urban amenities? In other words, how do we prevent distances from growing, in terms of not only space but also of time (particularly because of road congestion)? This prompts another question: what is accessibility?

The Concept of Gravity Accessibility Accessibility issue is at the heart of the interactions of territorial structure and transport planning. On the one hand, accessibility is playing on longterm location choices; on the other hand it largely influences short-term trip destinations and trip distances. From historical times to the present we can observe the creation of towns and the development of urban facilities at places with a specific quality of transport supply. How to define accessibility? At a basic level, accessibility can be defined as the ease with which one can reach a location to perform an activity (Morris, Dumble, & Wigan, 1978). In this sense it already incorporates two different but complementary aspects: the opportunity or possibility of interaction between two (economic) agents and the (geographic) distance that has to be covered in order to realise this interaction. Consequently the concept of accessibility can also be seen as an interface between (urban) economy and (transport) geography. One of the most influential works on accessibility concepts and definitions was produced by Hansen (Hansen, 1959, pp. 74ff), who defined ‘accessibility at point 1 to a particular type of activity at point 2 as directly proportional to the size of the activity at point 2 and inversely proportional to a function

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of the distance separating the two points. The total accessibility at point 1 to the activity is the summation of the accessibility to each of the points around point 1’. We can thus describe accessibility as a function of territorial structure and transport supply. X Ai ¼ Dj f ðcij Þ j

where Ai is the accessibility to destinations D from point i; Dj is the activity destinations at points j; cij is the generalised costs (time, price, comfort of the trip). In spite of being a well-known concept, accessibility can be differently interpreted according to respective disciplines. It depends on whether it focuses on the accessibility of a place or an individual, relative accessibility (to an area) or integral accessibility (for all areas in a territory), and whether it views accessibility as a tool for assessing individual utility or a transport system (Miller, 1999). Four basic perspectives have been presented by Geurs and van Wee (2004): – The location-based approach refers to urban planning objectives including inhabitants and activity distributions. The number of opportunities reached (within a transport time constraint) is viewed as the main access-index component – The infrastructure-based approach takes into account transportation systems assessing performance or service level with travel time or cost (with or without a congestion charge). – The person-based approach considers individual constraints and behaviours. Individual accessibility can be limited by duration of mandatory activities, time budget for flexible activities and travel speed allowed by the transport system. – The utility-based measures refer to benefits that people derive from access to activities. According to this basic definition different accessibility measurements can be distinguished, such as isochronal-based measures or gravity-based measures: – Isochronal-based measures count the number of opportunities in a constraint of distance, time or any other resistance parameter (like monetary budget, CO2 emission, travel time budget, etc.). Therefore, these measures can be easily interpreted and communicated. However,

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isochronal-based accessibility indicators are not able to measure accessible opportunities continuously with increasing travel resistances, and are therefore always reduced to an ‘inside or outside’ perspective. – Gravity-based accessibility results depend on a continuous evaluation of opportunities based on a resistance function to reach the activities in question. Hence, gravity-based measures are more powerful than distance measures in giving more detailed insight concerning the transport system and land-use relationship. Let us go back to the most specific presentation of the gravity accessibility, made by Hansen in 1959. The accessibility (A) between an i zone and all the mass of opportunities (D) of a group of areas j obviously depends on these masses, but weighted by the resistance factor represented by the generalised costs of transport (Cij ), affected by a b coefficient that accounts for the qualitative elements which increase or reduce the satisfaction related to transport cost. Paradoxically, although they have a high time value, qualified persons with a high salary have a low value b. It is as if they are better able to accept travel, even though it represents a cost: a transport cost included in a negative exponential, implies that the more transport cost grows, the worse accessibility gets (Koenig, 1980). X Ai ¼ Dj expðbcij Þ j

This formula explains why public policies were and still are attracted by the potential gains in speed brought by new transport infrastructures (Crozet, 2005). A motorway or road enlargement used to critically increase accessibility and still does, in certain instances. As soon as quick transport means are available, the accessible zone and hence housing and job opportunities grow significantly. Since the transport cost impacts accessibility exponentially, any speed change has a big effect on accessibility. This explains the growing success of rapid transport means like plane or high-speed train. This same dynamic of accessibility gains allowed by improvements in average speeds justifies the tremendous success of cars in industrialised and industrialising countries. Thanks to the individual car, average distances covered each day per person have skyrocketed. But in urban areas, this omnipresence of cars has tended to turn the car ‘solution’ into a problem. In response, accessibility considerations have developed different stages where speed gains are not always the single objective. To enlighten these stages we can use accessibility and especially accessibility maps to turn a complex indicator that cannot be easily

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understood by politicians or citizens, into an understandable result, easy to disseminate. It is now possible to face this challenge by the way of GIS (Geographical Information System). We will give the example of Lyon, a French agglomeration of 1.5 million inhabitants and use accessibility maps to illustrate the three stages of accessibility.

FROM TIME GAINS TO LAND-USE PRIORITIES: THE THREE STAGES OF ACCESSIBILITY Following the definition of gravity accessibility, economists and geographers were able to develop accessibility indicators, for a given point in space, by combining density and speed.  Density refers to the relative number of opportunities (including jobs or the number of inhabitants/shops/schools) in a particular area, accessible in what is considered to be an acceptable journey time, for instance one hour per day for a return journey.  Speed is a key component of the generalised travel cost, which associates monetary cost and the value of travel time. The greater the value of time, the greater the importance of speed in the generalised cost, particularly since improving speed automatically increases the accessible area and hence the number of opportunities available. This rationale provides more insight into why government policy has been and still is drawn to the potential improvements in speed offered by new transport infrastructure. A motorway, or the widening of a trunk road, is a real step forward in terms of accessibility. The accessible area, and hence the scope for choice in terms of housing and potential jobs, grows substantially with the provision of rapid modes of transport. This is what we call the first stage of accessibility. The first stage of accessibility is dominated by the search of speed and especially road speed for cars. It is a stage where speed is the main factor of the improvement of urban accessibility. The dream of policy makers is the same as the dream of car drivers: to keep car accessibility during peak hours at the same level as during off peak hours. But as we can see in a lot of cities, including Chinese cities, the more you increase car accessibility, the more you increase road congestion (Mogridge, 1980).

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The Example of Lyon Urban Area In Lyon as well as in most European cities, employment density is the highest in the city centre, where the population density is high as well. This combination of job opportunities and population explains the strong attractiveness of city centres, which translates into high land rent. Property prices are hence connected to this double density as it is a source of a very high accessibility. This is highlighted in Fig. 1: during off-peak hours, job accessibility by individual car is the highest in the city centre. The high density of jobs located in the central part of the urban area explains this result, which is not specific to Lyon and is replicated in all urban areas.

Fig. 1. Job Accessibility by Car on Off-Peak Hour.

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This attempt to increase car speeds to enable users to ‘save time’ runs up against two problems.  First, it increases both spatial and social distances, while paradoxically increasing daily travel times. This steady creep tends to cause urban fragmentation, as in some North American cities where the growing number of ‘gated communities’ is a negation of what cities should be.  Second, it is an underlying factor that accentuates congestion, particularly for access to denser areas, density being the key feature of attractive cities. It therefore comes as no surprise that, in dense urban areas, government policies have undergone a major shift. Without disregarding the lessons learned on accessibility, it is as if elected city representatives in Europe but also in Asia had ceased to bank on road speed gains at any price and were instead opting for density and reliability (Crozet, 2007). It is the second stage of accessibility. The second stage of accessibility emerges when road congestion is recurrent during peak hours. The lower average speed on the highway network and the creation of several congestion points are significantly modifying the level of accessibility. This is shown in Fig. 2. While the central part of Lyon keeps a high accessibility, some surrounding areas end up being somehow farther away (in the North), while those located east of the urban area, close to urban motorways, face a high relative gain. Facing this situation, if elected representatives react by considering only transport issues and road speed in particular, they will seek to develop rapid urban highways. However, the more they move in this direction, the more they threaten the very existence of the city centre as a housing area. Many American cities illustrate this phenomenon. The building of many radial motorways directly serving the central business district has limited it to its sole function of job centre. As soon as the day is over, workers are leaving it, hurrying on the rapid highways to reach their homes, sometimes several dozens of kilometres away. This further highlights why these rapid urban highways can be a risk for the activities and dynamism of the city centre and in particular for its multiple purposes: job, housing, services, shops and leisure. The accessibility concept reveals that the issue at stake is not primarily a transport and speed one, but mostly a spatial one. Hansen (1959) stated this in the title of his key article ‘how accessibility shapes land use’. Depending on how the space is used, the city can construct itself or break up. If the transport network encourages low density and single-purpose spaces, then the city breaks up. On the contrary, when the multiple purposes

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Fig. 2.

Job Accessibility by Car on Morning Peak Hour.

are maintained, the characteristics of the city are kept. The urban attractiveness cannot be summed up by the speed allowed on its highway network. It also depends on its ability to offer a combination of urban functions, which are key to urbanity, to the city’s soul. As a result, it is not surprising that European elected representatives and in particular, representatives of city centres, attached to the historic role of the city, reacted to the break-up threat by setting up a public transport network, which guarantees a high accessibility to the central part, in particular during peak hours. The second stage of accessibility is then characterised by the development of public transit (PT). A PT network becomes the main possibility to keep, or even to improve urban accessibility. Speed remains an important issue, for instance for train or subway lines, but reliability, frequency and comfort

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of PT are also very important. Even some relatively slow modes like bikes are promoted.  By developing relatively slow modes of transport such as tramways, new mobility policies have suggested that city dwellers reconsider how they view accessibility. Rather than focusing on speed, and the distance it provides, residents are invited to make choices that reflect the advantages of density and to some extent proximity. There is accordingly a move towards denser urbanisation in the areas served by the new tramway lines.  When warranted by the size of the city, in terms of both the distance to be covered and the number of daily commuters, the chosen option will be forms of subways or trains that move people faster than tramways. This will involve underground and regional express trains, a field requiring substantial investment in all of the world’s major cities.  As if to show that reliability and speed were now the prerogative of PT, many large cities have opted to curb or reduce average car speeds in urban areas by choosing not to reduce congestion. The initial grounds were road safety and the environment, but the main reason has been to break the spiral whereby increasing road capacity gradually induces traffic growth (Mogridge, 1980). By developing slow modes, policy makers are discovering the third stage of accessibility, when public policies are no more focused on transport and when the priorities become land use and density. Initially based on individual transport costs, and directly inherited from cost benefit analysis (CBA), the concept of accessibility puts the focus on land use as a collective process.

The Third Stage of Accessibility: Land-Use Priorities At this point of the reasoning a temptation rises. If higher speed is responsible for urban sprawl and non-sustainable cities, is it possible to reverse the process? Should we impose to the urban citizen a lower speed in order to come back to denser cities, to cities where walking and cycling would be the best, and even the only way to go from one point to another point of the city? Obviously we have to be careful, even if a higher speed has a lot of side effects, is it really a relevant objective to return to pedestrian cities, or more generally speaking, to ‘low speed’ cities? Once more, we have to avoid putting the focus on speed and more generally only on transportation issues.

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It is better to take into account the complex system of mobility and interactions of land use and transport according to economic needs, social conditions and the environmental challenges of sustainable development. We have to admit that we cannot simply go on satisfying a given travel demand by additional transport supply (without caring about the related feedback mechanisms). So it is better to recognise that we have to manage transportation demand by land-use priorities. Fig. 3 illustrates this new deal of priorities for the Lyon urban area by showing the accessibility differential between PT and private car during the morning peak hour. The dark squares represent the areas where accessibility by car is better than accessibility by PT. Clear squares reflect the opposite situation.

Fig. 3.

Accessibility Difference between Public Transport and Car at Peak Hour.

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This figure stresses again the positive impacts of urban motorways on car accessibility. Close to rapid highways the dark colour is dominant. However, alongside public transport axes (subway and tramway in white), clear squares are prevailing. Such a figure directly questions elected representatives and citizens. What do you wish for the middle and longterm: to spread the relative part of dark and streaky areas or that of clear areas? It is highly possible that depending on the situation, each person might wish either one or the other of these two possibilities. As a car driver, it is is tempting to prefer dark areas, which means creating new rapid highways. However, by remembering the likely effects of the latter on the city and on road congestion, the collective interest suggests on the opposite to favour public transport, the only means to improve or at least maintain the accessibility level in dense areas. It is hence not surprising that the transport authority of Lyon urban area (SYTRAL) decided to develop four new tramway lines opened between 2000 and 2009 (see Fig. 3). It should be stressed that these lines are all serving the eastern and southern parts of the urban area, where the working class lives. The accessibility trade-off is not solely a choice aiming to enhance the city centre’s attractiveness, where most of the well-off are living, due to the housing costs. Since public transport is expensive and a financed by all the administrative units of the urban area, a trade-off has been done in favour of the working-class neighbourhoods. What these figures reveal is simple. Public policies cannot continue trying to maintain car access to ever larger areas. In coordination with the policies developing PT already implemented in the urban city centres, public policies should rather try to improve public transport accessibility between the city centre and its surroundings. This maintains in the city centre the concomitant presence of employment, businesses and inhabitants, while avoiding a spatial, time and social gap with the surroundings which only make sense in relation to the centre. Beyond more and more formal administrative borders, the metropolitan area keeps its functional unity. We will now show that the same issue is at stake in most cities around the world, and in particular in large Chinese major cities.

DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE SAME URBAN ACCESSIBILITY CHALLENGE The main message of the accessibility concept is that, in urban areas, it is more important to have higher density than higher speed and especially higher road

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speed. Considering the important level of urban road congestion in many developed and developing countries, it is now obvious that searching to improve road accessibility by building more and more roads leads to a perverse effect: traffic pressure is growing faster than the road network, except if heavy constraints are imposed on car ownership. The comparison between Beijing and Shanghai urban policies illustrates that. But even if it is now well known that there is a vicious circle of road supply in dense areas, some challenges remain for less dense parts of the cities. Beijing and Shanghai: An Accelerated Trip through the Three Stages of Accessibility Over the last decades, Chinese cities have faced strong demographic and economic growth. However, as in other parts of the world, the improvement in the standard of living has translated into an increase in the rate of car ownership. This has faced local politic authorities with very difficult decisions, highly representative of the threats caused by the increasing pressure of cars on the use of the public space, in a growing urban area. It is interesting to observe how these risks have become apparent, and how public policies have answered them, as the process embodies an accelerated version of a scenario that large European cities have also faced. This scenario first starts with accepting and even encouraging car traffic. Thus in the mid-1990s, central authorities were clearly indicating they were giving priority to the development of private cars. The State Planning Commission was hence writing in 1994: Art. 48: Measures should be taken to support and protect the private use of car through developments and regulations on car registration, parking places, service stations, driving schools y Art. 54: Renovation and enlargement of urban highways will be treated as important town planning tasks.

These orientations have been applied. During the 1980s, new roads have been constructed at a rate of 3% per year in Beijing. From 1986 to 2000, the total area of urban highways moved from 21.5 to 42 million square metres in Beijing, representing 80% of the investments in transport infrastructure. The second part of the scenario articulates a double pernicious effect, for car drivers on the one hand and for users of PT on the highways on the other hand. On the latter, the average speed indeed plummeted to reach around 10 kilometres per hour at peak hours, that is to say half that of a few

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years before. The commercial speed of buses has followed the same path: from 24 kilometres per hour at the beginning of the 1970s, it went down to 15 km/h in Beijing at the end of the 1980s to decrease below 10 km/h at peak hours during the 1990s (Spencer & Wang, 1996, quoted in Mackett, 1999). The effect on the travel time budget was critical: more than 40% of Beijing inhabitants spend more than 60 minutes a day to reach their working place (Zhuo, 2004). Travel times are all the more felt as road congestion creates a continuing uncertainty on the actual duration of a trip. In Beijing the buses’ rate of punctuality decreased from 70% in 1990 to 8.4% in 1996 (He & Chang, 2000). This pernicious effect has its origin in the very rapid increase in the number of cars. In Beijing, from 1986 to 2000, while the highway area was doubling, the number of cars on the road multiplied by 6, to reach 1.6 million vehicles. The result can be measured by the ratio of the number of vehicles to 1,000 square metres of highway. In 10 years, from 1990 to 2000, this ratio increased from 7 to 25 in Beijing. Thus, following the increase in the number of urban ring roads, road congestion kept worsening to the point that the 2008 Olympic Games have coincided with the start of the third part of the scenario, aiming at containing the car in urban area, through various access limitations, among which the establishment of a tolled urban area was considered. For a quarter of a century, Beijing moved through all the stages that Europe also faced, but in an accelerated manner and in a much larger scale than most European cities. Public policies in Beijing are now closer to the policies followed by Shanghai at the same time. More geographically constrained than Beijing, Shanghai set up very early a policy to deal with road congestion, acting upstream of the phenomenon. By taking the Singaporean example of the registration plate auction, local authorities established a tax on the purchase of cars. At the end of 2003, 30,000–40,000 Yuan were necessary to obtain the registration authorisation that is to say around 50% of the price of a cheap car. The amount of this tax had been reduced at the beginning of the 2000s, under the pressure of the central government, which considered it as an obstacle to car production. These measures have, however, not prevented the increase in the number of cars on the road. From 1996 to 2004, the rate of car ownership in Shanghai increased from 4 to close to 40 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants. This is still far lower than in Beijing where this rate skyrocketed from 8 to 115 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants, over the same period. It should not be thought that Shanghai authorities have not been developing highways. The Western visitor is on the contrary impressed by

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the development of urban motorways and by the amount of traffic. However, traffic remains less congested than in Beijing since, from 1991 to 2000, the number of vehicles per 1,000 square metres of highway decreased from 10 to 5. We should hence not make the wrong diagnosis. Shanghai authorities are loathing neither car drivers nor highways, all the more so as large car plants, including Volkswagen, are located in the region. Their choices are not dictated by environmental considerations, but by the will to maintain a reasonable level of accessibility to car drivers. To do so, they have forbidden access to urban motorways to the vehicles which are not registered in Shanghai and which have not paid the registration tax. Since this will probably not be enough to contain traffic flows, they are also considering a tolled urban area as in Beijing. However, since they became aware earlier of the need to avoid an invasion of cars, they were also more ambitious in the development of PT: subway, tramways, trains, buses, etc. At the end of the 1990s (Lu & Ye, 1998), public transport represented 40% of passenger-kilometres (PK) (for 20% of the public space) and bicycle 20% of PK (for 40% of the public space). The Shanghai metro is one of the youngest in the world and among the most rapidly expanding. After the first line opened only in 1995 as a north– south axis from the Central Station to the southern suburbs, by the end of 2007 the network had reached a total length of 227 km, with 161 stations and 8 lines! In Beijing the construction of the first line started sooner, in 1965, but the length of the network was ‘only’ 150 km in 2008. Thus, after opting for quite diverging orientations over the past two decades, Beijing and Shanghai are both converging towards a rationale aiming at reducing the car’s influence. This is obvious in the recent but rapid development of bus rapid transit (BRT) systems. First implemented in Curitiba (Brazil) in 1974, this system benefits from a relatively low cost (15 million USD per kilometre against 10–30 million for a tramway), while offering a similar or even superior capacity than that of a tramway. While the latter peaks out at 12,000 passengers per hour, a maximum of 26,000 passengers one way and per hour was observed in Porto Alegre (Brazil), as much as a subway. Apart from its excellent cost efficiency ratio, BRT further benefits from another critical advantage: since it is using highways, car usage of highways is automatically limited. In China, Kunming city (capital of Yunnan) set up the first BRT line in 1999, thanks to a partnership with Zurich. Beijing followed in 2004 with a first line of 16 km. Other lines have since been constructed and the network is now close to 100 km. Shanghai has also planned 250 km of BRT. It is interesting to stress that with BRT, the policy

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of car ‘containment’ spreads over a larger and larger area. After regaining supremacy in the city centre, PT now appears as the only mean to improve urban accessibility of surrounding areas. Is this ambition however not meeting some limits? How far can the applicability of public transport, in terms of accessibility, be extended?

Are There Perverse Effects of the Improvement of PT Accessibility? The future of mobility in urban areas is at stake in the ability of public transport systems to improve accessibility to dense urban areas, rich in jobs, shops, houses, activities and other urban amenities. Whether the improvement in PT accessibility will not lead to the same pernicious effects as the improvement in car accessibility, should however be questioned. The main aspect of the pernicious effect of car accessibility was urban dispersion. Everywhere, urban suburbs are spreading more and more as, at the same time, the money and time budgets dedicated to transport are growing. The urban issue is now at stake in these suburbs whose uncontrolled development is all the faster as accessibility to central areas improves. It is as if urban policies were always overwhelmed by their success. Indeed, except if housing places and trips are strictly controlled, individual choices transform the successes linked to the relatively growing accessibility of cities into a problem. And the social issue is one of the most challenging. Addressing social issues is complex in terms of accessibility. The improvement of accessibility leads to a change in the social characteristics of people living along the PT lines. Mainly because of higher land prices, poor people are pushed away. It is a negative side effect of accessibility improvement that appears when the objective function of urban planners is only defined as the ability of public transport systems to improve accessibility to dense urban areas with many jobs, shops, houses, activities and other urban amenities. The question of whether the improvement in public transport accessibility will lead to some adverse effects should therefore be considered. The accessibility index can explain why transport policies that reduce the level of car use and encourage the use of alternative modes for gaining access to the central part of the city have unexpected effects. The situation is somewhat analogous to a pyramid made of sand: an increase in its height automatically increases the size of its base. When the attractiveness of a city is increased, there is an increase in land pressure and a possible increase in land prices.

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Just as with cars, public transport can be part of this escalation. This can be seen each time an efficient public transport is set up between a suburb and the city centre (train, tramway, BRT). Park and ride systems are rapidly successful and prevent the city centre from the car thrombosis. However, the very easy use of parking further encourages urban dispersion, longer distances commuted and even increased travel time budget. The more efficient public transport is, the more these phenomena are accelerating!

CONCLUDING REMARKS: WHEN COLLECTIVE LAND-USE PRIORITIES SHAPE ACCESSIBILITY SUPPLY! Urban mobility and the related public policies are at a crossroads: we cannot go on like we have done in the oil age. Accessibility has to be addressed within a strategy of sustainable development in order to cope with the three main challenges of the future (Banister, 2008). – A social challenge: how can we ensure that the residents of a metropolitan area, irrespective of social rank, continue to have access to all urban amenities? – An environmental challenge because of the external cost of mobility, especially car mobility (space consumption, emissions of pollutants, noise, etc.). – An economic challenge due to the increasing cost of passengers’ mobility for public finance and for commuters because of congestion. What is accessibility when you have more and more congested roads and when employment areas are more and more difficult to access during peak periods? Facing this situation, the general interest issue is acutely raised. To prevent the slide of urban dispersion, should any improvement in PT accessibility be contained, in the interest of improving car accessibility? Such a remedy would certainly be worse than the evil. It seems that the solution, even if it can only partially contain the phenomenon, lies not only in transport systems but also in the control of land use. It is obvious that concomitantly to the planning of public transport system, a planning of built form should be established. A new accessibility paradigm should now lead to a new approach that pursues the collective interest and assesses strategies and measures based on land-use priorities. Sustainability issues

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are bringing to the fore the need for accessibility achieved by improving the urban functions within denser catchment areas of trips rather than by increasing the size of the catchment areas thanks to a higher speed, either by car or by PT.

REFERENCES Banister, D. (2008). The sustainable mobility paradigm. Transport Policy, 15, 73–80. Crozet, Y. (2005). Time and passenger transport (pp. 27–69). 127th Round Table of ECMT, Le temps et les transports. Paris: OECD. Crozet, Y. (2007). Strategic issues for the future funding and operation of urban public transport systems. Mapping policy for electricity, water and transport. Infrastructure to 2030 (Vol. 2, pp. 413–462). Paris: OECD. Geurs, K. T., & van Wee, B. (2004). Accessibility evaluation of land-use and transport strategies: Review and research directions. Journal of Transport Geography, 12, 127–140. Hansen, W. G. (1959). How accessibility shapes land use. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 25, 73–76. He, K., & Chang, C. (2000). Present and future pollution from urban transport in China (China environment series No. 3). Washington DC: The Woodrow Wilson Center. Koenig, J. G. (1980). Indicators of urban accessibility: Theory and application. Transportation, 9, 145–1721980. Lu, X. M., & Ye G. X. (1998), Situation and policy of transportation in Shanghai at turning of the century. In P. Freeman & C. Jamet (Eds.), Urban Transport Policy: CODATU VIII. Rotterdam: Balkema. Mackett, R. (1999). Towards the solution of urban transport problems in China. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 11(3), 334–338. Miller, H. J. (1999). Measuring space-time accessibility benefits within transportation networks: Basic theory and computational procedures. Geographical Analysis, 3, 187–212. Mogridge, M. J. H. (1980). Travel in towns: Jam yesterday, jam today, jam tomorrow? London: MacMillan. Morris, J. M., Dumble, P. L., & Wigan, M. R. (1978). Accessibility indicators for transport planning. Transportation Research, 13A(2), 91–109. Zhuo, J. (2004). Les embarras de Pe´kin. Urbanisme, 335, 30–32.

CHAPTER 5 THE DEVELOPMENT OF GREEN SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION IN CHINA Jie ZHAO ABSTRACT Purpose – This chapter introduces the basic strategy and practice for developing a sustainable transportation system in China, and puts forward problems and directions of improvement. Methodology – To begin with, the chapter elaborates on the development background of the Chinese urban transportation system and on the challenges in terms of urbanization, mechanization, and resource constraints. The chapter then systematically summarizes the implementation strategy for developing a green transportation system in China, including the government’s leading role, public transportation system resource integration, the combination of nonmotor traffic and public traffic, and traffic demand management policy. It illustrates these with specific examples of practical activities conducted. Findings – Finally, in response to typical problems challenging China, this chapter puts forward directions of improvement for aspects of land utilization, planning, intelligent transportation, traffic demand management, and public participation.

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 99–117 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003007

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Implications for China – During the critical period featuring rapid growth of private motor vehicle population and transformation of urban traffic development policy, this chapter contributes to building a consensus among the Chinese government and the civil society and to promoting the implementation and sound development of sustainable transportation system by adopting comprehensive measures. Keywords: Green transportation; strategy; practice; improvement; China

DEVELOPMENT BACKGROUND AND CHALLENGES Continued Flow of Population into Major Cities In 2010, the total urban population of China was 640 million, while the total level of urbanization was approximately 47%. It is expected that by the year of 2020, the level of urbanization will exceed 50%, reaching 56–58% (DURP, 2010). Hence, the issue of urban transportation in China will become increasingly significant in the future and will also become a major challenge to the overall transportation system. The urbanization process across China is significantly characterized by the flow into and increasing concentration of the population within metropolitan areas and cosmopolitan suburban clusters centered on megacities. As a result of this urbanization process the populace faces increasingly longer travel distances, while cities face higher demands for transportation and higher requirements for quality transportation.

Rapid Increase in the Number of Motor Vehicles The number of motor vehicles in Chinese cities is rising at an increasingly rapid rate even though the urban motorization level is currently low. By the end of 2008, the total number of civilian motor vehicles nationwide had already reached 50.99 million, including 35.01 million private automobiles. When compared with the level in 2000, the total number of motor vehicles has been growing at an average rate of 15% per annum, while the average annual growth rate for the number of private cars is as high as 24% (SIC, 2010). Problems with traffic congestion have become very severe, with the

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average traffic speed in downtown areas of major cities during peak hours moving at roughly 10 km/h. More people are electing to use private cars as their primary means of transportation; this has brought many inconveniences into the lives of other residents and has also become a major problem facing municipal governments.

Increasingly Stringent Energy, Environmental, and Land Restrictions China is a major consumer of energy as well as an importer of petrochemical energy resources such as petroleum and natural gas; it is expected that by the year 2020, the ratio of China’s transportation energy consumption to its total energy consumption will reach as high as 17%, which means the task of saving energy in the transportation sector will be vital. The CO, CO2, NOx, and other particles released by motor vehicles account for over 40% of all atmospheric pollutants in Chinese cities and even 60% in some cities (Qiu, 2007). The exhaust gas and noise produced by motor vehicles have become a major source of pollution in mid-sized and large cities. Moreover, China is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, with urban land use per capita at less than 100 m2 and road area per capita at only about 10 m2 (UTC, 2009). Against the background of increasingly stringent restrictions on energy, environmental, and land resources, the option of choosing and implementing sustainable urban transportation has become a major challenge facing urban development in China.

The Need to Encourage Green Commuting In recent years, the development of public transportation in Chinese cities has received an unprecedented focus, and the necessary infrastructure has been improved significantly, being able to meet the principal needs of the growing urban population. However, as automobiles become a regular household item, the proportion of people commuting by car is rapidly increasing, while people commuting by public transportation now only account for 10–25% (Sun & Wang, 2008). The other two major means of transportation in Chinese cities, that is, cycling and walking, still account for a quite high percentage. However, it is shown by traffic surveys in many cities that the proportion of people commuting by bicycle is decreasing at a rapid rate, and that the environment for walking is becoming compromised (see Figs. 1 and 2). Therefore, there is still a long way to go,

Fig. 1.

Changes in the Commuting Structure among Residents in Xiamen City (CAUPD, 2010a).

Fig. 2.

Changes in the Commuting Structure among Residents in Zhengzhou City (CAUPD, 2010b).

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and a long-lasting effort is still needed in order to build an urban transportation system that is dominated by green sustainable transportation.

STRATEGIES FOR IMPLEMENTING GREEN TRANSPORTATION Current government policy for green transportation involves five strategies, which are described in the following sections.

Prioritizing the Development of Urban Public Transportation Government is the major player in implementing the public transportation priority strategy. In addition to providing policies and guidelines, the central government is also studying the possibility of setting up a fund for first developing public transportation and then guiding capital investments in related projects such as regional public transport hubs and urban rail transportation. To complement this, local governments need to strengthen their efforts in encouraging capital investments and directing governmental funds toward green sustainable transportation. At the same time, municipal governments must guide the reform of public transport companies, and also encourage social capital to participate in public transportation investment, construction, and operation activities by way of joint ventures, partnerships, or authorized operations. The intention is to gradually form a unique pattern of state-owned enterprise dominance, multiparty participation, large-scale operation, and orderly competition by implementing a franchising operation system.

Guaranteeing the Prioritized Position of Public Transportation in the Allocation of Resources Coordinated and consistent supporting policies with respect to such areas as the distribution of land used for public transportation facilities, arrangement of investments, allocation of road rights, and financial and taxation support are necessary to guarantee the prioritized position of public transportation in the allocation of resources. The land lots used for building rail transport facilities, comprehensive transit hubs, and stations should all be included in the ‘‘allocated land

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catalog’’ and be given reductions or exemptions in land and property expenses. Through various mechanisms of providing urban public transportation subsidies and compensation, municipal governments should provide such subsidies to compensate urban public transportation companies for losses related to ticket-fare reduction or exemption policies being implemented, for example, monthly passes and reduced ticket prices for the elderly, disabled, wounded, and disabled servicemen. Furthermore, in the area of traffic control, public transportation should be given priority in the assignment of right-of-way. Exclusive bus way or bus lane for buses should be set up along important transportation corridors, and public transportation priority traffic signal control should be implemented at intersections to ensure reliable and punctual operation of buses.

Integrating Public Transportation System Resources A unified public transportation ticket regime and ticket pricing system should be established, so citizens can freely choose their means of public transportation based on their individual travel needs; public transportation transit hubs should be built, and transfer facilities at stations should be improved to allow for easy and fast linkage between different means of public transportation and with other means of transportation. The overall transportation efficiency and contingency capabilities of public transportation lines should be enhanced by comprehensively integrating information resources, improving information services, and implementing comprehensive cross-zone and cross-line dispatching of the public transportation network.

Integrating Nonmotor Vehicle Transportation with Public Transportation In large cities and megacities, the bicycle can supplement public transportation, by filling the gap in places where the coverage of public transportation is lacking. The bicycle can also function as a tool for transferring between traditional buses and rail transport systems. Currently used as mid- and short-distance transportation tools, bikes are mainly utilized for travel within transportation zones or to adjacent zones.

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For small and medium-sized cities, the scale of public transportation is generally more limited, and the overall area of built-up districts is relatively small. Therefore, these cities are well suited to bike travel, and in these cities, the bicycle should become the major means of passenger transportation. There are a large number of branch roads and alleys in Chinese cities. Restricting these roads to bicycle use only will help increase the overall driving speed of motor vehicles and avoid conflicts between bicycles and motor vehicles. Pedestrian systems should be further improved, and a walkway system that is integrated with commercial buildings, public facilities, and public transportation stations should be established to ensure the continuity, safety, and comfort of the walkway system.

Managing and Guiding the Proper use of Private Transportation The urban layout should be simplified to reduce and avoid excessive and unnecessary travel as well as the excessive concentration of transportation demand. Differentiated economic means should be adopted to adjust and control the spatial distribution of traffic, suppress inefficient and high-polluting private means of transportation, and increase the costs of use of private transport for those districts or roads with excessively dense traffic. Additionally, a toll road regime should be employed in order to reduce traffic jams in downtown areas. Parking countermeasures should be developed zone by zone. For areas with busy traffic, it is not right to provide a large number of parking facilities, and a strategy of charging high parking fees should be adopted. For outlying cities, it is practical to increase the number of parking lots, reduce toll rates, and build Park & Ride (P+R) facilities. In older downtown areas, it will be necessary to control the size of parking areas to mitigate the excessive congestion of road traffic and maintain the balance between dynamic and static traffic flows.

DOMESTIC PRACTICES These five strategies are currently being implemented through a series of initiatives, several of which are described in this section.

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Central Government Policies to Guide Development In 2004, the Ministry of Construction, as the administration responsible for urban public transportation, promulgated Document No. 38 (DUC, 2010) regarding the prioritized development of urban public transportation. In 2005, the General Office of the State Council issued the ‘‘The Guideline on Giving Priority to the Development of Urban Public Transportation’’ (No. 46 [2005] of the General Office of the State Council) (MOHURD, 2005), which was jointly developed by six ministries, including the Ministry of Construction, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Land and Resources. At the end of 2005, the Ministry of Construction, in conjunction with four other ministries and commissions, printed and distributed the document ‘‘Opinions about Several Economic Policies Relating to Giving Priority to the Development of Urban Public Transportation.’’ The ‘‘Regulations on Urban Public Transportation’’ – China’s first administrative traffic law – is going through its final draft and is expected to be promulgated and implemented soon. Some local governments have also successfully launched relevant supporting policies regarding giving priority to the development of public transportation.

‘‘Public Transportation Activity Week’’ and ‘‘Car-free Day’’ Since 2007, the ‘‘Urban Public Transportation Week and Car-Free Day’’ event has been organized nationwide for four consecutive years to raise social awareness. After 2008, the event was renamed as ‘‘Car-Free Day.’’ On September 22 of each year, traffic is restricted on certain streets and blocks in participating cities, where only public buses, trolley buses, and specially authorized automobiles are allowed to pass through. Currently, there are a total of 129 cities that have signed the Letter of Commitment for Car-Free Day. During this annual event, a theme highlighting the concept of green travel is established, public service announcements are broadcast on TV, and widespread community promotion is also carried out through publicity brochures. Previous Car-Free Day themes were as follows:  ‘‘Green Transportation and Health,’’ 2007;  ‘‘People-Friendly Streets,’’ 2008;

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Car-Free Day in Wuxi City, 2010.

 ‘‘Healthy and Eco-Friendly Transportation: Walking and Cycling,’’ 2009;  ‘‘Green Transportation, Low-Carbon Life Style,’’ 2010 (see Fig. 3). Development and Construction of Facilities for Rail Transport and Bus Rapid Transit By the end of 2008, 30 high-speed urban rail transport lines were operating in 10 different cities in mainland China, including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Changchun, Dalian, and Wuhan, with the total length of the operating lines reaching 769 km. By the year 2015, there are plans for the number of urban rail transport lines to reach 72, the total length of these lines will be 2,232 km, and the total investment will be 799.2 billion yuan RMB. By 2009, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) was operating in a total of 10 different Chinese cities, including Beijing, Hangzhou, Kunming, Jinan, Changzhou, Hefei, Xiamen, Dalian, Chongqing, and Zhengzhou; the combined length of the lines exceeded 300 km. As China’s first BRT project, the South Central Axis BRT Pilot Project in Beijing was completed and up and running at the end of 2005. The passenger volume exceeded 50,000 on Day 1 and is now stabilized at about 100,000 daily passengers. The number of one-way passengers being transported during peak hours is 10,000, and the average traveling speed is 22–26 km/h (see Fig. 4).

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Fig. 4.

The First Bus Rapid Transit in Beijing.

Implementing a Low Ticket Price Policy and Enhancing the Appeal of Public Transportation Beijing City has launched a unified subway ticket price of 2 yuan RMB, and offers a 60% discount to those passengers who use bus ticket pass cards so that they need only to pay 0.4 yuan RMB for a single bus ride. Shanghai has launched a downtown bus line and rail transport transfer discount program, which provides a 1 yuan RMB discount per person per ride, that is, there will be 1 yuan less for people transfer between bus and rail transport. During nonpeak hours, elderly people over the age of 70 can ride buses free of charge. Shenzhen City has launched pass card discounts and transfer discounts; the ticket price for buses has been reduced by an average of 25%. Hefei City has now begun a special ticket price policy, including 1 yuan tickets in cash, a 10% discount for prepaid electronic bus cards, a 65% discount for students, relevant discounts for the most needy, and completely free rides for people above 70 years of age. Construction of Transport Hubs to Connect Regional Infrastructure Several cities have invested in transport hubs to connect to long-distance rail and to airports. Beijing City has planned eight passenger transport centers,

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while the transport hubs at the South Beijing Railway Station, Beijing Zoo, and Liuliqiao are already completed and in operation. In addition to the hubs in Beijing, a group of modern transport hubs such as the Hongqiao Hub in Shanghai and the Futian Transport Complex in Shenzhen has also been completed and is operating fully. Tianjin City has taken up a huge project and set up a specialized station construction and investment company, performed comprehensive upgrades and transformations to bus stations, bus stops, public transport infrastructure, and service facilities within the downtown area, and had completed the task of building and retrofitting 90 public transport stations by the end of 2007.

Encourage Walking and Cycling Building a Public Bicycle Service Network By the end of 2009, the number of public bicycle service locations in Hangzhou had increased to 2,204. With a service location every 100 m and with 50,000 bikes available for use, the average daily volume of rentals exceeded 250,000; on average, each bike was being rented five times daily, and the average usage time was 1 hour for 90% of borrowers. Hangzhou has already become the largest public bicycle transport and travel system with the highest rental volume in China. Bicycle service stations in Hangzhou now serve such functions as meeting citizens’ short-distance travel needs, solving the last-kilometer problem of public transport and offering transport services to scenic spots (see Fig. 5). As of June 2009, the total number of service locations completed and operating in Shanghai was around 100; according to the existing network construction plan, approximately 500 more locations were in operation by the end of 2009 (see Fig. 6). Promote Walking and Cycling Demo Projects Walking and bicycle transport system demonstration projects were carried out in six cities and districts, including the Yuzhong Peninsula in Chongqing City, the central downtown area of Hangzhou City, the main downtown area of Jinan City, the Panlong River area and Daguan River coast of Kunming City, the Hongqiao district and Cultural district of Changshu City, and the West New Town and the Huaqiao International Service Business Park of Kunshan City. Based on user experience, walking and cycling planning guidelines are being further developed and promoted.

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Fig. 5.

Public Bicycles in Hangzhou.

Travel Demand Management with Public Transportation as the Priority In 2005, Shenzhen City increased parking fee rates within its central downtown area; after implementing the new pricing scheme, the traffic flow in the central downtown area dropped by nearly 4% (Shenzhen Commercial Daily, 2006). Meanwhile, Shenzhen City also began a study on the feasibility

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Public Bicycles in Shanghai.

of charging a road congestion fee, which could offer a new model for managing transport needs (Jiang, 2011). Hangzhou City is also performing a feasibility study on phasing out the access of cars into areas surrounding the West Lake scenic spot (CAUPD, 2008a). Also, cities like Suzhou are ready to make adjustments to their traffic-control policies in order to protect their historic towns (CAUPD, 2006). The new anti-congestion policy enacted at the end of 2010 in Beijing allows for control on the total number of motor vehicles through the implementation of a raffle in which permits to obtain license plates are drawn. At the same time, Beijing increased parking fee rates in the central downtown area. These policies have not only impacted on traffic levels in Beijing but will also influence the traffic management policies of other cities in China.

Green Transportation within the Construction of Ecological Cities and New Downtown Districts In recent years, exploration into implementing green sustainable transportation concepts has been carried out in the construction of new towns,

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including in the Tianjin Eco-City and Guangzhou Knowledge City. The Tianjin Eco-City focuses on the hybrid use of land lots and a combination of public transportation and land use. The local work force accounts for 65% of all jobs, each of the grass root community centers is within a 300 m walking distance, each of the residential community centers is within a 500 m walking distance, and 80% of all destinations are within a 3 km distance. The frequency of travel by means of public transportation is less than 25% and the frequency of travel by cars is less than 10% of total travel. At the same time, the ‘‘non-motor vehicle dedicated road system’’ was established to achieve the goal of ensuring that frequency of travel by means of nonmotor vehicles within the town would be no less than 70% (CAUPD, 2008b). The construction plan for the new town of Beichuan County, rebuilt at a new location after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, included proposals aimed at making walking and cycling the major means of transportation. A bicycle system was established to serve various functions such as meeting the needs of daily life, sightseeing, and fitness. The area of low-speed road facilities for walking and cycling now exceeds that of motor vehicles. At the same time, driving-speed restrictions have been imposed on all motor vehicles entering the county town to ensure the safety of pedestrians (see Figs. 7 and 8).

Fig. 7.

A Low-speed Fitness Road in Beichuan.

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A Low-speed Scenic Road in Beichuan.

EXISTING PROBLEMS AND PATHS TOWARD IMPROVEMENT Existing Problems Despite these initiatives there remain a number of problems, the most serious of which are: (1) The public transportation’s overall level of service, reliability, and the availability of traffic information is still low, and many urban residents are still not satisfied with walking and cycling and do not prefer these as a primary means of transportation. (2) The rapid expansion of private motor vehicles still has a huge potential for further growth, and in some cities it is still quite difficult to enforce regulations or control measures against the use of cars. (3) A certain level of unawareness still exists in selecting public transportation systems; many cities disregard their financial condition, focus on high-quality rail transportation, but ignore the improvement of conventional buses as well as the building of mid- and low-cost means of public transportation, such as tramcars. (4) Transfers between outbound and suburban-urban transportation, basic downtown public transportation, and conventional means of public transportation are still not convenient and comprehensive. (5) The environment for walking and cycling is not good enough; in particular, the number of bicycles is continually decreasing. (6) Traffic safety facilities are not sophisticated enough, and accident rates remain high. Paths Toward Improvement These problems require continuing action and intensified policies. Several paths toward improvement are suggested.

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Promoting the Combination of Public Transportation and Land Use It is necessary to adhere to the use of a high-density and minimal-footprint model for development in order to conserve land, to actively build a sustainable, flexible model that fits with land utilization patterns, and to advocate an urban development model oriented toward public transportation. On the macro level, urban expansion areas should be designed around reliance on public transportation rather than on highway transportation. At the mid-level, it is necessary to plan spatial layouts to ensure they fit the appropriate public transportation. At the micro level, regular human activities should be guided toward and primarily focused around the ‘‘nuclei’’ of public transportation. In relocating and updating older communities, the land-use percentages for individual residential communities, commercial districts, etc., should be optimized to ensure close proximity between the home and workplace, thus reducing the frequency of cross-district and long-distance commuting for work and school, decreasing both travel distances and the overall total volume of passenger transportation. Development in areas immediately surrounding public transportation hubs should be strengthened and expanded, and the ground area ratio and density of buildings should be increased along public transportation corridors and around public transportation hubs so as to form a ‘‘string of pearls’’ layout, with shops, offices, residential areas, and transportation hubs close together and well connected. Building an Urban Transportation System Centered on Public Transportation from the Planning Phase The traditional way of evaluating road construction projects based on the passing traffic flow should be changed from ‘‘automobile-centric’’ to ‘‘people-centric.’’ The evaluation parameters should be changed from focusing on the traffic flow into focusing on passenger flow. Transit planning should be transformed from primarily highway transportation into a combination of public transportation and highways, and the highway network system should be closely combined with land-use planning so as to build urban vitality and economic prosperity. Support in all related areas such as policy making, capital investment, and taxation should be focused on giving priority to developing public transportation. A passenger transport structure based on rail transportation and BRT systems should be gradually established in all major cities. At the same time, urban public transportation facilities should be combined and integrated with regional transportation facilities such as railroads and airports. Transport centers

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designed to ease the switch from walking to taking public transportation should be built to provide conveniently integrated links between different means of transportation, thus helping citizens realize the overall benefit and appeal of using public transportation facilities. Further Enhancing the Role of Walking And Cycling in an Integrated Transportation System For some central business areas with particularly congested traffic, alternative means such as walking and cycling should be encouraged for the sake of improving the overall urban environment. In such areas, special walking or cycling areas could be established, and convenient walking corridors developed. Fenced communities should be opened up, and special cycling and walking pavements should be expanded and extended. The public bicycle model should be encouraged nationwide, and more bicycle parking stations should be established along rail transport lines to better enable cyclists to combine cycling with their use of the public transportation system. Safety facilities for pedestrians and bicycles at intersections should be further improved. Compelling Construction of Urban Transportation Integrated Information Platforms by Utilizing Intelligent Transport Systems Several measures, such as industrial policies and financial support, should be employed to integrate transportation resources, establish comprehensive information service networks, improve the operational efficiency of transportation, and gradually build a sophisticated transport information system. This system, for use by the general public, will offer a wide array of functions such as traffic information inquiries, traffic or travel information, and more. It is also necessary to promote digitalized urban road lane management technology, reinforce inspection and control of dedicated bus lanes and other special road lanes, promote regional scheduling and dispatching for urban transportation districts, enhance the reliability of public transportation, and develop advanced technologies to ensure punctual operation of transit systems. Multipurpose electronic passenger tickets should be widely applied, and integrated management of the various means of public transportation and taxi cars should be implemented. Accelerating the Implementation of Travel Demand Management Measures Experience shows that in order to establish a green and sustainable transportation system, it is necessary to adhere to the dual policy of

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prioritizing development of public transportation on the one hand, and implementing Travel Demand Management on the other. Traffic management techniques, such as imposing an additional fuel tax on cars, regulating and controlling parking lot prices, issuing pollution and emissions permits, charging a traffic congestion fee within central downtown areas, and other similar measures, are popular in many countries for reducing the use of cars. Therefore, China should also actively study the specific measures that are best suited to its unique situation in order to gradually reduce the number of cars used by Chinese citizens, and to make the allocation of public resources more reasonable and fair. Promoting Public Participation in Green Sustainable Transportation The promotion of the green sustainable transportation concept has a lot to do with both policy development by the government and the behaviors and preferences of the general public. For the general public, green transportation is a rational travel choice that closely affects one’s quality of life and living space. In addition to meeting individuals’ basic travel needs and demands for comfortable transportation, it also contributes to improving the overall traffic environment and makes accessible transportation available to more people. The promotion of green transportation will help change the mindset of people in all walks of life in society. With enthusiasm from its citizens, China will see the nation, en masse, participate together in the implementation of green transportation.

CONCLUSIONS Through nearly 20 years of continuous exploration and experience, China has established a basic general path toward implementing and developing green sustainable transportation. China has realized that the urban transportation issue not only is limited to solving the problem of urban traffic congestion, but also is an essential element of land resource utilization, of saving energy, and for making improvements to the environment across the entire country. With rapid development and urbanization, and with continually improving standards of living, the number of private motor vehicles is growing rapidly and has huge potential for further growth. Therefore, the transformation of urban transportation development policy is facing stringent challenges. The critical process of changing the mindset of what development entails, the policy of giving priority to developing urban public transportation, of properly regulating and controlling the use of

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private motor vehicles, and promoting the rational use of different means of transportation is both a vital and a difficult matter. This process requires the government and community to gradually reach a collaborative agreement, take comprehensive measures toward, and work together to drive the implementation of a healthy plan for green sustainable transportation.

REFERENCES CAUPD. (2008a). Comprehensive transportation planning in Hangzhou city (Redacting). Hangzhou: Hangzhou Municipal Planning Bureau. CAUPD. (2008b). The research report of master planning (2008–2020) in Sino-Singapore Tianjin eco-city. Beijing: Author. CAUPD. (2010a). The research report of resident trip survey, public transportation passenger survey and public transportation network planning in Xiamen city. Beijing: Author. CAUPD. (2010b). The research report of comprehensive transportation model development and planning in Zhengzhou city. Beijing: Author. China Academy of Urban Planning and Design (CAUPD). (2006). Comprehensive transportation planning in suzhou city. Suzhou: Suzhou Municipal Planning Bureau. Department of Urban Construction (DUC) of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China (MOHURD). (2004). The guideline on giving priority to the development of urban public transportation initiated by MOHURD. Beijing: MOHURD. Department of Urban-Rural Plan (DURP) of MOHURD, CAUPD. (2010). Programs of nationwide city and township system (2006–2020). Beijing: The Commercial Press (CP). Jiang, C., (2011). Shenzhen controls traffic congestion, maybe congestion charge to be levied. Retrieved from http://news.ifeng.com/mainland/detail_2011_03/07/5004022_0.shtml MOHURD, National Development and Reform Commission People’s Republic of China (NDRC), The Ministry of Science and Technology of People’s Republic of China (MST). (2005). The announcement of ‘‘The Guideline on Giving Priority to the Development of Urban Public Transportation Initiated by MOHURD and other Ministries’’ transmitted by the State Council General Office. Beijing: The State Council General Office. Qiu, B. X. (2007). Outlook of urban transportation development in China. Urban Transport of China, 5(5), 6–12. Shenzhen Commercial Daily. (2006). Shenzhen adjusts parking prices, the price increase of 35%. Retrieved from http://www.sznews.com/news/content/2006-08/22/content_274124.htm State Information Center (SIC), Department of Industry (DI) of NDRC. (2010). China automobile market outlook 2010. Beijing: China Machine Press. Sun, Y. B., Wang, E. M. (2008). China’s urban residents’ commuting by public transportation only account for 10%-25%. Retrieved from http://sub.gxnews.com.cn/staticpages/20081003/ newgx48e61003-1693631.shtml Urban Transportation Center (UTC) of MOHURD, CAUPD. (2009). China’s Urban Transportation Development Report No. 1. China Architecture & Building Press, Beijing.

CHAPTER 6 MANAGING URBAN MOBILITY SYSTEMS THROUGH A CROSS-ASSESSMENT MODEL WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF LAND-USE AND TRANSPORT INTEGRATION Kenji DOI and Masanobu KII ABSTRACT Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to propose a cross-assessment model as an analytical tool for developing sustainable urban transport and land-use strategies for a low-carbon society. Methodology – A cross-assessment model is developed based on demand and supply models of transport services. The model is able to generate a set of the optimal service levels in public transport reflecting selected target strategies. It is applied to an impact analysis of public transport and land-use strategies in 2030 for all of Japan’s 269 urban areas,with outcomes – including the financial balance of public transport operation,

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 119–144 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003008

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user benefits and CO2 emissions reduction – compared among strategies and urban areas. Findings – The analytical results show that three value factors of efficiency, equity and the environment do not necessarily conflict with each other. In particular, it is clarified that CO2-emission reduction targets can contribute to the improvement of both financial balance and user benefits at the national level. In addition, the results of comparative analysis among the land-use and transport integration (LUTI) scenarios demonstrate that a combination of urban transport strategies and landuse control in the form of ‘corridors and multi-centres’ provides greater emission reduction and increased user benefits. Implications – The cross-assessment model developed in this chapter could serve as an analytical tool for strategic transport planning. The results in this chapter underlinethe benefit of LUTI strategies particularly in China. Keywords: Urban mobility; land use and transport; cross-assessment; CO2 emissions

INTRODUCTION One of the central issues in the development and management of urban mobility systems is to identify the most sustainable solutions within the framework of land-use and transport integration (LUTI) while involving a large number of stakeholders with multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Such objectives range from the provision of cost-effective transport services to the provision of fair and equitable accessibility opportunities to the realisation of safe and environmentally friendly mobility systems. Achieving these objectives requires integrated strategies including (a) infrastructure provision and management, (b) attitudinal measures that influence individual travel behaviours and lifestyles, (c) land-use measures that shape transit-supportive urban structures, and (d) pricing. Although the LUTI framework has been incorporated in urban transport policies in some advanced cities, it has rarely resulted in successful outcomes because of the implementation gap caused by consensus and institutional barriers. Numerous papers have pointed out that the primary barriers to delivery of sustainable transport are institutional ones that reduce the

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potential for delivery or make it impossible to achieve (Banister, 2005; Curtis & Low, 2009; Rietveld & Stough, 2006). To better integrate strategies and reduce implementation barriers, a wide range of stakeholders with different values should be encouraged to participate fully in strategy formulation. This enables the development of a common understanding of objectives and a shared vision for sustainable urban transport. Furthermore, it is necessary for us to find an appropriate combination of vision-led and consensus-led approaches, one that both reconciles conflicting objectives among stakeholders by clarifying the pros and cons of respective strategies and meets the requirements of a low-carbon, ageing society. Fig. 1 shows a vision-led and consensus-led process for sustainable transport. Pursuing the goal of sustainable transport means overcoming a series of challenges that form an ascending spiral: dependence on automobiles, the transition to a low-carbon society and adapting to an ageing society. Solving the challenges in each stage and stepping up to the next require both management of and innovation in transport systems. A consensus among stakeholders is critical in managing systems because success is achieved through utilisation of a portfolio of existing technologies and policies. On the other hand, systems’ innovation requires understanding the future direction of society. It may require new conceptualisations of technology or policy and requires a vision for society’s future. As shown in A Decision Makers’ Guidebook for developing sustainable urban land-use and transport strategies, the most common approach is a

Fig. 1.

Necessity of Combining Vision-Led and Consensus-Led Approaches.

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mix of plan-led and consensus-led decision-making (May, 2005). However, plan-led approaches that seek an optimal solution or best alternative can work well only if stakeholders/individuals share a common value system. If value systems differ among stakeholders, however, it has been demonstrated that democracy offers no real cure-all to finding the best solution (Arrow, 1950). Consensus-led approaches primarily emphasise convincing stakeholders; the negotiation process can lead to compromised policies that are materially distorted in terms of efficiency. Vision-led approaches usually involve an individual (typically the mayor or committee leader) with a clear view of the kind of city they want for the future and the policy instruments needed to achieve that vision. The focus then is on implementing them as effectively as possible (May, 2005). Therefore, with a special focus on vision-led and consensus-led decisionmaking, this chapter proposes the innovative framework of a crossassessment model1 that provides a multi-dimensional and multi-lateral evaluation of alternative strategies within the LUTI framework. This model is expected to support decision makers in exploring possible directions for sustainable urban transport to meet the requirements of a low-carbon, ageing society. It is designed to make cross-assessments of alternative strategies whose impacts on welfare, economy and the environment are compared. This analysis clarifies the inter-relationship of outcomes and suggests alternative strategies to manage and enhance the system using the elucidated inter-relationships. This model is applied to the analysis of transport and land-use strategies for all of Japan’s 269 urban areas. Urban density is defined using grid population data with a grid size of 1 km  1 km. We establish two urban scenarios for the year 2030: ‘trend’ and ‘compact’. Three outcome indices are selected based on the following value elements: financial balance of public transport operation, user benefits and transport sector CO2 emissions. We also set three public transport policy alternatives: maximising public transport sector profit, maximising social net benefit and minimising CO2 emissions. We estimate the impact of policy alternatives on outcome indices. As a result, this study provides a perspective on the impact of urban structures and transport strategies in a society with an ageing and declining population in Japan. It also explores differences in impact across regions, which have not been fully discussed in past studies. Based on these results, this chapter underlines the importance of the elaborated LUTI (land-use and transport integration) approach for the long-term management of urban mobility systems.

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ANALYTICAL REQUIREMENTS FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT Most analytical tools for plan-led approaches are likely to work well if objectives are specified, problems are identified, and measures that satisfy the objectives or solve the problems are easily determined. In such cases, they often focus on problems of limited scope or are based on ad-hoc value systems, regardless of the diverse values found among people. A successful combination of the vision-led and consensus-led approaches requires an innovative analytical tool capable of cross-assessing the outcomes of alternative strategies from multiple perspectives and values. In this section, we review previous studies on the relationship between urban structure, transport energy consumption and public transport policy – essential topics for discussing sustainable urban transport strategies in a society with an ageing and declining population.

Urban Structure and Transport Energy Many past studies have tried to clarify the relationship between urban structures and transport energy consumption in order to extract information. Newman and Kenworthy (1989) summarise urban transport data from around the world, and offer the famous diagram showing a negative correlation between population density and fuel consumption per capita. A range of studies have been conducted on the relationship between urban density, automobile dependence and energy consumption (Kenworthy & Laube, 1999; McLoughlin, 1991; Mees, 2010a, 2010b; Newman & Kenworthy, 1999). Some studies suggest that densification of urban population worsens congestion and does not necessarily contribute to energy savings (Bouwman, 2000). Hayashi et al. (1992) noted that increased population density decreases transport energy consumption per capita but increases consumption per urban area. This result suggests that urban compaction may worsen local air quality. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2002) simulated the effect of urban density on energy consumption in travel and indicated that high density saves energy on the roads but increases energy use inside building due to elevator use. The impact of urban compaction on transport energy savings would vary by urban structure including the location of activities and infrastructure. Therefore the macro relationship between population density and vehicle

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energy consumption is not enough to lead to either consensus or a vision for a sustainable transport strategy. We need more detailed information about activity location and transport movement, as well as about the situation of public transport service provision inside the urban area.

Level of Service of Public Transport Studies on the relationship between urban structures and transport energy consumption are mostly based on private car travel, but the level of service (LOS) of public transport is also a considerable factor. Urban compactness will increase travel demand density, allowing a higher LOS and modal share of public transport. Modal shift from private to public transport is expected as a mitigation measure for the problem of global warming, but depends on travel density and the efficiency of public transport. Except in very large cities, private cars are the dominant transport mode in most developed cities. This reflects the lower profitability and LOS of public transport that comes with lower travel density. If an administration forces increased public transport service in a region with low travel demand density, it could increase CO2 emissions due to the higher energy intensity of public transport at lower occupancy ratios (Kii & Hanaoka, 2003; Kii et al., 2005). Ishida et al. (1999) quantify the public transport domain (Bouladon, 1967; Vuchic, 1992) by considering the demand and profitability of the transport sector. They evaluate the capable domain of public transport service over urban areas and traffic density at urban centres, but the urban structure is too simplified to analyse the effect of urban compaction.

Requirements for Analysis of Sustainable Urban Transport Strategies Past studies take various approaches to measure the impact of urban compaction and transport policies on CO2 emission reduction, but these studies do not take into account changes to public transport LOS caused by urban compaction. In addition, it is important to identify regional conditions under which transport policy will be effective in reducing emissions, but this requires comparable analysis across cities in the target region. There are land-use and transport models (e.g. Wegener, 2003) that describe choice behaviour for transport modes, routes and locations in

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detail. Because these models need a huge amount of data, they are usually applied to one or a few selected cities. In this study, we provide an urban transport model in which the LOS of public transport is identified endogenously with simplified user behaviour in transport and applied to all of Japan’s 269 urban areas. A cross-assessment of urban compaction and public transport policies demonstrates the outcomes and spatial distribution of each transport strategy. The results are used to identify the conditions under which urban compaction is effective in reducing CO2 emissions.

STRATEGIC CROSS-ASSESSMENT MODEL Cross-Assessment The cross-assessment in this study combines the essential elements of multicriteria analysis and conflict analysis (Dodgson et al., 2000; Keeney & Raiffa, 1993; Knoflacher & Himanen, 1991; Minken, 2002; Toman, 1994). It aims to explore synergistic solutions combining different value systems by assessing the impact on all outcome factors of measures pursuing each value factor as shown in Fig. 2. An iterative feedback in the figure indicates that an appropriate weighting and combination of three value factors should be examined based on the results of cross-assessment. We assume every transport strategy is achievable by government policy measures but may not

Fig. 2.

Concept of Cross-Assessment in This Study.

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represent the value system of the government. Decisions are usually made based on consensus among stakeholders whose value systems are different from each other. Each of the three strategies in this study is based on a particular value factor, and the impacts on all of the outcomes are evaluated (Kii & Doi, 2010).

Definition of Stakeholders and the Conceptual Framework of the Analysis In this study, the stakeholders are defined as public transport operators, government and transport users. Their behaviours are assumed in the following sections. Public Transport Operators Operators decide the LOS of public transport (bus and train) to maximise their profits under the given spatial distribution of demand, fare and subsidy. The government determines the latter two factors. Transport Users Users choose a travel mode (private car, bus, train and walk/bicycle) to minimise the generalised cost for their trip under the given fare level and LOS of public transport. Government Government devises transport strategies and subsidies to public transport operators to make the strategies effective. It also leads the spatial pattern of residence and work place. We also set triple bottom lines of sustainability as economy, society and environment, assuming the following three strategic targets in transport policy. (Hereafter, the abbreviation in parenthesis indicates the target.) 1. Profit maximisation of public transport operator (PM) 2. Net benefit maximisation (NBM) 3. CO2 emission minimisation in transport sector (CO2) The first target, PM, is equal to minimisation of subsidy by government. In the second, NBM, net benefits are defined as the sum of user benefits and operator profits. Based on these targets, we set three outcome indices: operator profits, user benefits and CO2 emissions. Fig. 3 shows the conceptualised mechanism of mobility style formation through user and operator behaviour under the transport strategy and

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Fig. 3.

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Inter-Relationship of Stakeholder Actions.

urban structure (land-use structure) controlled by the government. In the strategic targets described above, profit maximisation mainly attaches importance to operator profitability, while net benefit maximisation attaches importance mainly to users. CO2 emission minimisation in the transport sector is currently only a government commitment and does not offer any direct benefit for users and operators. Every target affects all outcome indices, so pursuing one value element will affect the achievement of other elements as well. We define the cross-assessment as an impact analysis of policy targets on the outcome indices; the cross-assessment model is an attempt to apply this evaluation to real transport strategy.

Formulation of the Cross-Assessment Model For the strategic analysis of public transport policies, we need an analytical model representing the transport LOS and activity location as spatial

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information. In this study, urban space is represented by a grid-based system, and the behaviours of transport operators and users are formulated. In addition, three indices can be estimated: the financial balance of transport operations, generalised user cost for travel and CO2 emissions from the transport sector.2 In the formulation, we make the following assumptions: 1. Urban structure of residential and workplace location, transport infrastructure and public transport fare level are given exogenously. 2. Public and private transport travel speed varies spatially among grids, but does not change depending on traffic volume. 3. A single operator provides both train and bus services in each city. 4. Transport service revenue is proportionate to passenger-km but operation costs depend on vehicle-km. 5. The CO2 emission factor per vehicle-km is fixed for each transport mode. Regarding the second assumption, the fixed travel speed in a grid may be too tight a condition for assessing real urban areas. It should of course be relaxed in cities with growing population and car ownership because of their impact on LOS. In our target country Japan, both population and car ownership are almost saturated and the population is expected to decline. In the case of Japan, this assumption will bring a negative bias on future road transport LOS because congestion might be alleviated with decreasing population. On the other hand, an increase in elderly drivers may affect traffic by decreasing its speed. The effect of social change on travel speed must be studied with precision. In this study, however, we assume speed to be fixed at the current level.

Profit of Public Transport The profit of a public transport operator P at grid m mode k is expressed as follows: Pmk ¼ qmk l mk wk  C mk ðnmk Þ

(1)

Here, qmk is the number of passengers at grid m, lm is route length (km), wk is fare rate (yen/km), Cmk is operation cost and nmk is the number of vehicles in operation. Operation cost is assumed to be proportionate to operated vehicle-km Lmk and can be described as follows: C mk ðnmk Þ ¼ a0k þ a1k Lmk ðnmk Þ

(2)

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(3)

Lmk ðnmk Þ ¼ H k vmk nmk

Eq. (3) represents vehicle kilometres as a product of operation hours H and vehicle speed vmk. In this formulation, operator profits are controlled by the number of vehicles in operation or service frequency under the given grid conditions of route length, number of passengers and fare rate. Thus, the P total financial balance in a city is given as m;k Pmk ðnmk Þ.

User Benefit We focus on user benefit arising from reduction in travel time and cost. The generalised travel cost C between origin i and destination j by mode k can be defined as follows: C ijk ¼ cijk þ r. twijk ðnijk Þ þ

X

! tmk .dijmk

(4)

m

where cijk is the public transport fare for travel between i and j, which is equal to wk  lij; lij is the travel length; r is the value of time or the opportunity cost of time given by the wage rate; tmk and twijk are travel time and waiting time at grid m on route ij; and dijmk is a binary value that takes 1 if m is on the route and takes 0 if not. The travel route is fixed for an OD (origin n anddestination) o trip. Additionally, waiting time is defined as twijk ¼ max m

l mk vmk nmk

jm 2 M ij j

where M ij ¼ fmjdijmk ¼ 1jg. nijk is defined as

{nmkjmAMij}, which is the vector of the number of vehicles in operation for the grid on route ij. We assume a logit model whose representative term is given in Eq.(4); the expected minimum travel cost on i–j can be written as follows: ! X 1 C ij ¼ ln expðy.C ijk ðnijk ÞÞ y k

(5)

Here y is a parameter. If we assume that travel demand on i–j is fixed as Qij, and denote the generalised costs with and without policy measures by C with and C without , respectively, then total user benefit in the city is ij ij P without  C with ij Þ. i;j Qij ðC ij

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CO2 Emissions CO2 emissions for transport mode k at grid m are formulated as follows: CO2mk ¼ ak Lmk ðnmk Þ

(6)

Here, ak is an emission factor of mode k, and Lmk is travel length with grid m. Emission factors for public transport and private cars are expressed as follows (subscript t denotes public transport and c denotes private cars): Lmt ðnmt Þ ¼ H t vmt nmt

(7)

Lmc ¼ qmc l mc

(8)

lmc is the one-way drive length to pass through grid m. The number of passengers q using transport mode k at grid m, which appears in Eqs. (1) and (8), is defined as follows under the logit model: qmk ¼

X ðQij Pijk Þdijmk

(9)

i;j

expðy.C ijk ðnijk Þ þ yk Þ Pijk ¼ P expðy.C ijk0 ðnijk0 Þ þ yk0 Þ

(10)

k0

Here yk is a dummy parameter for mode k. As shown in the next section, travel demand is estimated separately for elderly and non-elderly people. Therefore, the qmk in Eq. (1) is the sum of travel demand for the elderly and for the non-elderly estimated in Eq. (9).

Strategic Targets Fig. 4 shows the links among formulated behaviour and outcome indices. In this model, the number of OD trips only depends on population distribution, but the modal share depends on the generalised travel cost of all modes as formulated in Eq. (10). The generalised cost is determined by the number of in-operation public transport vehicles using Eq. (4). The number of vehicles is calculated endogenously, with consideration of the modal share change, to achieve the strategic targets formulated below. When the generalised cost is determined, user benefit is calculated using

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Fig. 4.

Stakeholders’ Behaviour and Outcome Indices.

Eq. (5). In addition, CO2 emissions are also determined using modal share information and Eqs. (6) and (9). The three strategic targets – profit maximisation, net benefit maximisation and CO2 emission minimisation – can be formulated as optimisation problems over the vector of public transport vehicles n as follows: max n

( max n

X

X

(11)

Pm;k ðnÞ

m;k

Pm;k ðnÞ 

X

) Qij Cij ðnÞ

(12)

i;j

m;k

min n

X

CO2mk ðnÞ

(13)

m;k

Here the profit maximisation strategy eventually leads to the abolition of unprofitable public transport routes. For the other two strategies, public transport services can be subsidised in order to achieve respective targets. In the latter case, the financial results of public transport operators will be negative, with deficits being covered by government subsidies in this chapter.

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Population Scenarios We set two spatial patterns of population distribution – ‘trend’ and ‘compact’ – for each of 269 cities in the year 2030. These are represented as grid-based population datasets. Future municipality populations are as estimated by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan, and grid population is computed here to be consistent with this data. 00 We denote the population of grid i in 2000 as D00 i , city population as D , 30 and that in 2030 as D . Grid population in 2000 is given by the Statistics Bureau of the Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. The grid population in 2030 for the ‘trend’ scenario, denoted by D30 i , is calculated as follows: 00 . D30 i ¼ Di

D30 D00

(14)

This equation assumes that population distribution scales down/up with the ratio of urban population of 2030 over 2000. For the ‘compact’ scenario, the grid population is set using Eq.(14) if a city’s population increases. In case of decrease, it is set as follows: ( D30 i

¼

D00 i 0

where i 2 I M where i 2 IM

(15)

where IM is the grid set of which the sum of the population is equal to D30, 00  where D00 j oDi for ’iAIM, and ’jeIM. I M is the complement of IM. When the elderly population is denoted by D30 a , its population at grid i (denoted by D30 ) and that of the non-elderly population (D30 ai ni ) are calculated using the following equation: 00 . . 00 D30 ai ¼ ðb Dni þ Dai Þ

00 . D30 ni ¼ Dni ð1  bÞ

D30  b¼ aP

D30 i D00 i

D30 i D00 i

(16)

(17)

P

. 30 00 D00 ai Di =Di . 30 00 D00 ni Di =Di

(18)

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Fig. 5.

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Spatial Distribution Scenario for Population in 2030.

b is an adjustment factor to make the grid population consistent with city population. Fig. 5 shows some examples of population distribution produced by this procedure.

CROSS-ASSESSMENT OF TRANSPORT STRATEGIES AND THEIR IMPACT ON URBAN STRUCTURE Impact at the National Level In this section, three outcome indices – financial balance of public transport operation, user benefit, and CO2 emissions – are compared under the three public transport strategies and two urban structural scenarios. Fig. 6 shows the CO2 emission reduction from 2000 to 2030 in the six scenarios and business as usual (BAU), in which the LOS of public transport for each grid is fixed at 2000 levels. Here, NBM, PM and CO2 indicate, respectively, the strategic targets of net benefit maximisation, profit maximisation and CO2 minimisation. Net benefits are defined as the sum of public transport operator profits and user benefits. In this figure, even in the case of ‘trend’ urban structure and BAU public transport LOS, CO2 emissions are reduced by about five million tons due to population decrease and ageing. For the ‘compact’ urban structure, emissions are reduced even more: around one million tons of CO2 emissions less than for the ‘trend’ urban structure for every strategy. Among the four transport strategies, CO2 minimisation naturally shows the largest reduction but profit maximisation also results in a larger reduction than BAU. On the other hand, reduction of NBM is almost the same as with BAU. This means improved public transport LOS does not necessarily contribute to CO2 reduction at the national level. Fig. 7 shows the financial balance of public transport. Here, the current value is the estimation for 2000. BAU indicates a heavy deficit reflecting

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Fig. 6.

Fig. 7.

CO2 Emission Reduction from 2000.

Financial Balance of Public Transport.

decreased transport demand. Financial balance is highly improved under PM. CO2 minimisation also reduces the deficit substantially because services are reduced in unprofitable regions. Fig. 8 shows user benefit in each case, defined as the difference of generalised cost between the year 2000 and the target scenario,3 where the

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Fig. 8.

User Benefits.

generalised cost is given in Eq. (5). For both urban structure scenarios, NBM gives a high positive value and PM gives a negative value. The CO2 minimisation strategy gives higher benefits than BAU. This means that the LOS pattern to minimise CO2 emissions gives higher benefits than the current pattern, even as the former emits less CO2 than the latter. It is also shown that the ‘compact’ scenario brings lower user benefits than the ‘trend’ scenario except for the NBM strategy at the national level. The results above can be summarised as follows: 1. The profit maximisation strategy will reduce CO2 emissions but decrease user benefits. 2. The CO2 minimisation strategy can improve the financial balance of public transport operations and slightly improve user benefits. 3. Urban compaction will be effective for CO2 emission reduction but may reduce user benefits. The first and second results indicate that the profit maximisation and CO2 minimisation strategies will have a positive relationship towards their objectives. It can be interpreted that a complex strategy of profit maximisation and CO2 minimisation may be an effective solution for CO2 reduction when creating a common understanding among stakeholders that ‘the investment in environmental improvement will promote economic development’ in the transport sector. However, it should be noted that the

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CO2 minimisation strategy is expected to increase user benefits while the PM strategy will decrease them. The third result is not seen in past studies and is caused by the compiling method used in this study; the national total is defined as the sum of the results of all cities estimated separately. Therefore, the result summarised above may not be applicable to individual cities. In the next section, the results are compared among cities to discuss regional conditions of CO2 reduction and benefit improvement as well as the difference of urban compaction impact.

Regional Difference in Outcomes In this section, we examine CO2 reduction and user benefits in respective urban areas under the CO2 minimisation strategy and discuss conditions under which city compaction is effective with regard to these indices. The examined urban areas, which are set based on ‘urban employment areas’ (Kanemoto & Tokuoka, 2002), are shown in Fig. 9. An urban employment area comprises a central city and its associated outlying municipalities that contribute at least 10% of commuters to the central city. There are a total of 269 urban employment areas in Japan.

Fig. 9.

Urban Employment Areas.

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Figs. 10 and 11, respectively, show the regional pattern of CO2 emissions reduction and user benefits. Fig. 12 shows the difference between the ‘trend’ and ‘compact’ scenarios. Fig. 10 indicates that CO2 emissions are significantly reduced in metropolitan regions for both ‘trend’ and ‘compact’

Fig. 10.

Spatial Pattern of CO2 Emission Reduction in Respective Scenarios.

Fig. 11.

Spatial Pattern of User Benefits in Respective Scenarios.

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Fig. 12.

Difference Between ‘Compact’ and ‘Trend’ Scenarios.

scenarios. However, the impact of urban compaction differs somewhat among the three metropolises. Specifically, urban compaction has a positive impact on CO2 reduction in Osaka and Nagoya but a negative one in Tokyo (Fig. 12, left). This difference is caused by the fact that population density in the Tokyo metropolitan region is more than sufficient even under the ‘trend’ scenario, so urban compaction would bring more traffic and CO2 emissions. This result implies that if a city is at a certain density, then increasing density further makes CO2 emissions worse. The ‘compact’ scenario provides a higher CO2 reduction than the ‘trend’ scenario in most cities. This means that urban compaction will be effective for CO2 reduction in many cities, except Tokyo and some regional cities. Comparing the outcomes in the three metropolitan regions, Osaka shows the highest potential for CO2 reduction due to improved coordination between land use and transport. User benefits, shown in Fig. 11, are positive for both scenarios in the three largest metropolitan regions: Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya. Considering Figs. 10 and 11 together, both emission reduction and user benefits will be achievable in these areas. However, many regional cities will lose user benefits. This reflects the possibility of a lower emission factor per passenger-km for private cars than for public transport due to a decline in travel demand concurrent with population decrease. The ‘compact’ scenario

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has fewer cities whose user benefits are negative, alleviating the negative range of benefits from the ‘trend’ scenario. Taking a closer look at the difference in urban scenarios in Fig. 12, there are 123 urban areas (45.7%) where urban compaction has a positive effect on both emission reduction and benefits and 74 areas (27.5%) where it has a positive effect on CO2 emission reduction but a negative effect on benefits. Among the three metropolitan regions, Tokyo and Osaka have lower benefits under the ‘compact’ scenario than under the ‘trend’ scenario, but Nagoya has higher benefits. In the former two areas, the LOS of public transport is high enough that the elasticity of benefits with respect to LOS would be low. In addition, compaction would increase the volume of private car use in congested grids such that the average travel time would increase. As a result, user benefits in the ‘compact’ scenario are estimated to be lower than those in the ‘trend’ scenario. On the other hand, in Nagoya, improvement in public transport LOS is estimated to exceed the cost increases due to congestion. Regarding other regional cities, the total benefits of the ‘compact’ scenario are higher than the ‘trend’ scenario. This means that the lower nationwide benefits of the ‘compact’ scenario under the CO2 minimisation strategy shown in Fig. 8 reflect the congestion cost in large metropolises like Tokyo and Osaka. Altogether, the impact of urban compaction seems to differ depending on the urban situation. The impact on both CO2 emission reduction and user benefits in the Tokyo area is negative and, conversely, positive in Nagoya. In Osaka, the impact on CO2 emission reduction is positive and that on user benefits is negative. In most regional cities, the CO2 minimisation strategy is shown to bring a decline in user benefits, although urban compaction alleviates this negative impact. Therefore, if regionally effective strategies were applied to each area, the nationwide total for CO2 emissions and user benefits could be expected to be higher than those shown above. It should be noted that the grid LOS for private cars is fixed at the 2000 level. Under this assumption, change in grid congestion due to compaction and population change is not considered. This simplification may have both positive and negative bias on CO2 emissions and user benefits in the evaluation of urban compaction impacts. If road congestion increases, emissions from private cars will increase. On the other hand, demand may shift to railways, which would reduce emissions. Concentrating residential

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and business locations along public transport routes may increase citywide LOS on average, and increase user benefits from travel. However, such compaction would enhance land scarcity and possibly reduce the benefits from housing development. For a more comprehensive assessment of CO2 emissions and user benefits, integration with analyses of endogenous road congestion and land-use economy may be needed. In addition, if we consider improvement to private car LOS through road construction or the introduction of advanced ITS, urban compaction may have a chance to improve user benefits even in large metropolises like Tokyo and Osaka.

Impact of LUTI Scenarios Additionally, we have investigated the impacts of alternative LUTI scenarios in a selected region that plans to reshape land use by developing corridors and multi-centres. Fig. 13 shows three land-use scenarios: ‘trend’, ‘corridor’ and ‘corridor and multi-centres’, the latter two of which are LUTI scenarios that would be achieved through transit-oriented redevelopment along transit corridors. The ‘corridor’ scenario is assumed to remove around 10% of the population from non-corridor areas to corridor areas, while the ‘corridor and multi-centres’ scenario is expected to attract more population to the designated urban-cores along the corridors. Figs. 14 and 15 show the impact of the two new LUTI scenarios. A combination of urban transport strategies and land-use control in the form of ‘corridor and multi-centres’ contributes to a larger reduction of emissions than the ‘corridor’ scenario alone. In the ‘corridor and multi-centres’ scenario, CO2 emissions would be reduced as much as 47% under the CO2 minimisation strategy. This scenario also shows the largest benefits among the CO2 minimisation strategies as shown in Fig. 15.

Fig. 13.

Targeted LUTI Scenarios in a Selected Region.

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0

20

40 60 80 KT-CO2/yr

100

120

CO2 Emission Reduction by Transport Strategy and Land-Use Scenario.

corridors corridors & m-centres

trend

Fig. 14.

BAU NBM PM CO2 BAU NBM PM CO2 BAU NBM PM CO2

BAU NBM PM CO2 BAU NBM PM CO2 BAU NBM PM CO2 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

KT-CO2/yr Fig. 15.

User Benefits by Transport Strategy and Land-Use Scenario.

CONCLUSIONS The cross-assessment of transport strategies demonstrated that the three value factors of efficiency, equity and environment do not conflict with each other. In particular, it was shown that the CO2 emission reduction target would contribute to improved financial balance of public transport and user benefits. A strategic combination of CO2 minimisation and the profit maximisation is expected to bring synergetic effects.

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The spatial analysis in all 269 urban areas derives the following possible findings: (1) the CO2 minimisation strategy is effective for emission reduction and improving benefits in large cities, but the relationship of these two outcomes imposes a trade-off in small cities, (2) urban compaction in small cities may alleviate the trade-off relationship between emission reduction and user-benefit improvement and (3) too dense compactness in large cities may increase congestion, which consequently increases CO2 emissions and reduces benefits. In addition, the results of comparative analysis among the three LUTI scenarios demonstrate that the integration of urban transport strategies and land-use control in the form of ‘corridors and multi-centres’ would provide an even greater reduction in emissions and increase in user benefits. The results reported above are for Japanese cities with an ageing and declining population. It is clear that they cannot directly be transferred to the context of Chinese cities. In addition to population dynamics, differences in the land ownership and public transport management systems may require different settings of the assessment framework. However, they do share some similarities in urban development strategy. China enacted the new Town and Country Planning Act in 2007, which enables consistent urban–rural integrated planning by breaking the dual urban–rural structure. Under the new Planning Act, polycentric spatial structure has recently become an important development strategy in some Chinese megacities. The spatial strategy of ‘two axes, two corridors and multi-centres’ has been gradually triggered in Beijing. Also, in Nanjing, a transit corridor plan that closely mimics the Copenhagen Finger Plan has been formulated for 2007–2020. These new urban strategies aim to break up the former single-centre pattern and establish a new polycentric urban system. Our cross-assessment approach is expected to contribute to disentangling the issue of an integrated land-use and transportframework and to supporting the building of a LUTI strategy and consensus among the stakeholders. In China, there will be a variety of value systems related to economic growth, exacerbating the conflict among stakeholders in urban policies. The concept of our model may be useful to clarify the interrelationship among different value systems. It will support building a vision of the required strategy and consensus among the stakeholders. However, model building will require extensive data collection for traffic condition, public transport LOS and cost structure, people’s modal choice, population distribution by attributes and land-use pattern. Recent progress in monitoring with GPS and other remote-sensing technologies as well as

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survey methods using the Internet will enable this with fewer resources even if the entire dataset is not available from published statistics.

NOTES 1. This chapter focuses on urban passenger transport and does not touch upon inter-city and freight transport issues. In addition, transport and traffic conditions in our modelling are simplified to be analytically tractable and practically operational across all urban areas. 2. This chapter focuses specifically on CO2emission reductions because it aims to contribute to low-carbon transport, and because long-term climate change is largely controlled by CO2 due to its persistence in the atmosphere. 3. In the BAU scenario, the grid pattern of public transport LOS is the same as that in 2000, but the location of activities is different. Therefore, total generalised cost in 2030 is different from that in 2000 even in the BAU case.

REFERENCES Arrow, K. J. (1950). A difficulty in the concept of social welfare. Journal of Political Economy, 58(4), 328–346. Banister, D. (2005). Overcoming barriers to the implementation of sustainable transport. In P. Rietveld & R. Stough (Eds.), Barriers to sustainable transport: Institutions, regulations and sustainability. New York: Spon Press. Bouladon, G. (1967). The transport gaps. Science Journal, 3(4), 41–46. Bouwman, M. E. (2000). Changing mobility patterns in a compact city: Environmental impacts. In G. de Roo & D. Miller (Eds.), Compact cities and sustainable urban development: A critical assessment of policies and plans from an international perspective. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate. Curtis, C., & Low, N. (2009). The implementation gap in land use transport integration: A case study of path dependence? Conference on future urban transport. Go¨teborg: Volvo Research Education Foundation. Dodgson, J., Spackman, M., Pearman, A., & Phillips, L. (2000). Multi-criteria analysis: A manual. London: Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. Hayashi, Y., Tomita, Y., Doi, K., Rithica, S., & Kato, H. (1992). A comparative study on urban transport energy consumption and its influence on the environment. Infrastructure Planning, 15, 939–944 (in Japanese). Ishida, H., Taniguchi, M., Suzuki, T., & Furuya, H. (1999). Transportation policy evaluation based on the relations between domains and dominated territories of each transport mode. Transport Policy Studies Review, 2(1), 14–25. Kanemoto, Y., & Tokuoka, K. (2002). Proposal for the standards of metropolitan areas of Japan. Journal of Applied Regional Science, 7, 1–15 (in Japanese). Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1993). Decisions with multiple objectives: Preferences and value trade-offs. Cambridge University Press.

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Kenworthy, J., & Laube, F. (1999). An international sourcebook of automobile dependence in cities, 1960–1990. Boulder, CO: University Press of Colorado. Kii, M., Doi, K. (2010). A Strategic cross-assessment model for vision-led and consensus-led decision making towards sustainable urban transport. Compendium of Papers CD-ROM, the 12th world conference of transport research, WCTRS, Lyon. Kii, M., & Hanaoka, S. (2003). Comparison of efficiency between private and public transport considering urban structure. IATSS Research, 27(2), 6–15. Kii, M., Hirota, K., & Minato, K. (2005). A study on modal shift potential considering public transport operation. Compendium of Papers CD-ROM, the 9th international conference on computers in urban planning and urban management. WCTRS, Lyon. Knoflacher, H., & Himanen, V. (1991). Transport policy between economy and ecology. VTT Research Notes 1221. Espoo: VTT. May, A. D. (2005). A decision makers’ guidebook - developing sustainable urban land use and transport strategies. Leeds: University of Leeds. McLoughlin, L. (1991). Urban consolidation and urban sprawl: A question of density. Urban Policy and Research, 9(3), 148–156. Mees, P. (2010a). Density and sustainable transport in US, Canadian and Australian cities, another look at the data. Lyon: WCTRS. Mees, P. (2010b). Transport for Suburbia: Beyond the automobile age. London: Earthscan. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. (2002). Effects on energy load by compact urban structure. Traffic Engineering, 37, 35–42 (in Japanese). Minken, H. (2002). A framework for the evaluation of urban transport and land use strategies with respect to sustainability. The 6th Workshop of the Transport, Land Use and Environment Network. Haugesund. Newman, P., Kenworthy, J. (1989). Cities and automobile dependence. A source book. Gower Technical. Aldershot. Newman, P., & Kenworthy, J. (1999). Sustainability and cities: Overcoming automobile dependence. Washington, DC: Island Press. Toman, M. A. (1994). Economics and sustainability: Balancing trade-offs and imperatives. Land economics, 70(4), 399–413. Vuchic, R. V. (1992). Urban passenger transportation modes. In G. E. Gray & L. A. Hael (Eds.), Public transportation (2nd ed.). Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall. Wegener, M.(2003). Overview of land-use transportation models. Compendium of Papers CD-ROM, the 8th international conference on computers in urban planning and urban management.

CHAPTER 7 DELIVERING A MORE SUSTAINABLE URBAN ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TRANSPORT POLICY PACKAGES Anthony D. MAY ABSTRACT Purpose – This chapter outlines the need for policy packages in urban areas, demonstrates how effective policy packages can be designed by combining appropriate policy instruments and discusses the implications for Chinese cities. Methodology – The results in the chapter are derived from a predictive model of two UK cities (Edinburgh and Leeds), an objective function to reflect a city’s objectives and constraints, and an optimising routine which identifies the most effective level of intervention for each policy instrument. Findings – Where available, fuel taxes, fare levels, road pricing charges, low-cost capacity improvements and public transport frequencies are the most effective policy instruments. Optimal combinations designed to cost no more than current strategies offer substantial benefits to society. Infrastructure projects typically offer much lower value for money.

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 145–165 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003009

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Strategies designed to meet challenging climate change targets can be designed, but may well substantially reduce other benefits. Research limitations/implications – Other policy instruments such as awareness campaigns and walking and cycling measures could be tested in a similar way. Similar analyses could be conducted in high growth contexts typical of Chinese cities. Practical and social implications – Policy packages will be important for Chinese cities. They are likely to differ from European specifications, and include greater use of infrastructure. The methodology presented here could be applied to their design. Originality – The chapter brings together research reported elsewhere, presents some new results on synergy and discusses the implications for China. Keywords: Policy packages; synergy; optimisation; constraints; policy implications

THE CHALLENGE OF GREEN URBAN TRANSPORT A recent review for the International Transport Forum (May & Marsden, 2010) has highlighted the challenge faced by urban transport planners from a combination of rapid population growth in developing countries, the need for worldwide action to reduce carbon emissions and the need at the same time to maintain the economic contribution and liveability of cities. It considers the role of technology in meeting these challenges, and argues that, while changes are needed in motive power and vehicle design, they will at most contribute half of the reductions in CO2 emissions which are needed by 2050. Behavioural change is also required, and the review highlights six types of policy instrument which are available, and summarises the evidence on their potential, drawing in part on a knowledgebase on urban transport policy (KonSULT, 2012). Table 1 provides a simple summary of the potential contribution of each type of policy intervention to each of a range of policy objectives (May & Marsden, 2010). It can be seen that no single type of instrument scores best against all objectives but that each has a significant contribution to make. This suggests that an effective strategy is likely to be based on a policy package involving different types of approach.

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Table 1.

The Contribution of Different Types of Intervention to Policy Objectives. Technology Land Use Infrastructure Management Information Pricing

Climate/oil Pollution/noise Safety/health Exclusion Congestion Growth

    

     

     

     

     

    

Note: , low contribution; , medium contribution; , high contribution.

This is the starting point for this chapter, which considers evidence on the ways in which such packages might be developed, both in European and in Chinese cities.

THE DESIGN OF POLICY PACKAGES A review of the principles for the design of such policy packages (May, Kelly, & Shepherd, 2006) has indicated two broad approaches. The first focuses on the concepts of synergy and complementarity, in which each policy instrument reinforces the other, thus enabling the combination to achieve a greater impact than either on its own. The second considers the political, institutional and financial barriers to implementing a given policy instrument, and identifies other instruments which can help overcome these barriers. Both of these approaches are employed in the KonSULT option generation facility (May, Kelly, Jopson, & Shepherd, 2012). An early study by the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT, 1995) had already focused attention on the importance of policy packages, and stressed the key role of improvements in public transport, better management of road space and controls on the demand for car use. This study’s recommendations were subsequently reviewed, based on a survey of 168 cities around the developed world (ECMT, 2002). That review concluded that, while the 1995 recommendations were broadly accepted, the implementation of such policy packages was ‘more easily said than done’. An important strand of subsequent research, not discussed further in this chapter, has been the development of ways of overcoming the barriers to their implementation (May, 2009; May & Crass, 2007).

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There are several cities which have an international reputation for their pursuit of such policy packages, and can be considered as innovators in urban transport policy. Singapore is perhaps the best documented; it has pursued a consistent policy for almost four decades in which car ownership and use have been controlled, public transport has been enhanced and land use has been planned to be compatible with the transport strategy. As a result its level of car ownership is around a third of that of comparator cities, and serious congestion is a rare occurrence (May, 2004). The UITP database has recently been applied to identify cities which have achieved a reduction in car use over time, and the factors which have helped explain such reductions (UITP, 2006). Freiburg, Vienna and Zurich are all examples of cities which have used demand management, public transport improvements and land-use planning to achieve such trends; Freiburg in particular has also used improvements in both walking and cycling (Buehler & Pucher, 2011). However, empirical evidence on the effect of policy packages is difficult to obtain, principally because of the practical difficulties of implementing a set of policy instruments in a sufficiently short period to be able to isolate their impacts from those arising from secular change. Instead, much of the analysis of such packages has been based on the use of predictive models of the transport system. Two research programmes have independently used such predictive models to identify the key elements of a sustainable urban transport strategy. The EC PROPOLIS project (Lautso, Spiekermann, & Wegener, 2004) used a common analysis and evaluation methodology in seven European cities to assess the contribution of different packages of policy instruments. It concluded that the key contributors were improvements to public transport services and fares and pricing of urban car use, and that a third element of more concentrated land-use development was needed to reinforce these two transport measures. The net present value of such strategies was estimated at between h1,000 and h3,000 per capita (Lautso et al., 2004). Interestingly, the infrastructure projects being considered by cities rarely formed part of the most effective strategy; it appears that infrastructure projects need to be designed to be more cost-effective, and more compatible with other elements of the overall strategy. A separate UK project (May et al., 2005) used optimisation techniques to identify that set of policy instruments which performed best against a given set of objectives. It, too, identified bus frequency increases, fares reductions and charging for car use, together with low-cost improvements in road capacity as the most effective combinations, with a net present value of between h3,000 and h6,000 per capita. The next section presents the

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methodology adopted in the latter study, and more recent results from that research programme. More recently, Goodwin (2010) has drawn together information on the cost-effectiveness of programmes of interventions of differing kinds. For any type of policy intervention, such as local safety measures, the benefits of expenditure increase as spending increases, but at a declining rate, with the best projects, which should be implemented first, having the best benefit-cost ratios. Goodwin uses this analysis to demonstrate the relative performance of different types of policy instrument. By far the best returns are obtained from local safety measures, awareness measures and cycling schemes. Next come local bus service improvements and concessionary fares schemes, while infrastructure projects are typically much less cost-effective. Although Goodwin did not consider packages of such measures, his analysis reinforces the messages from Lautso et al. (2004) and May et al. (2005), while demonstrating that policy packages should in addition make greater use of awareness measures.

PREDICTIVE RESEARCH ON OPTIMAL POLICY PACKAGES The method adopted by May et al. (2005) involves a state of the art transport policy appraisal framework with a dynamic land use and transport interaction model and an automated multidimensional optimisation technique. This approach enables city authorities in collaboration with transport-planning experts to simulate future development paths of their cities and to identify optimal transport and land-use policy packages. Fig. 1 shows the overall process. One or more city-specific scenarios are specified in terms of population, economic activity, spatial distribution, incomes and car ownership, and other factors influencing demand for travel. A land-use transport interaction (LUTI) model is then calibrated for the city. An objective function is then specified which reflects the city’s objectives, and their relative importance. If necessary, constraints are specified within which the optimisation must operate. A set of policy instruments which can be used in the strategy is then defined, together with the ranges within which they can be implemented. Different combinations of these policy instruments are tested in the LUTI model and appraised against the objective function. An optimisation routine is then applied to generate that combination of policy instruments which performs best in terms of the

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Constraints Instrument set, range

Optimised? N Y

Policy package

Optimal Strategy

Appraisal

LUTI model Scenarios

Objective function

Fig. 1. The Optimisation Process.

objective function, and within any specified constraints. The optimisation process used is the Downhill Simplex method (Nelder & Mead, 1965), via the AMOEBA routine (Press, Flannery, Teukolsky, & Vettering, 1990). This methodology has been applied to eight European cities, using three different models (May et al., 2005). The results presented here are for two UK cities: Edinburgh, with an urban population of 400,000 and a travel to work area population of 1.1 million, and Leeds, with an urban population of 600,000 and a travel to work area population of over 2 million. The tests used the MARS model to represent the full travel to work area for Edinburgh, and a catchment area of 750,000 population for Leeds. MARS is a dynamic Land Use and Transport Interaction model based on the principles of systems dynamics (Sterman, 2000) and synergetics (Haken, 1983). The present version of MARS is implemented in Vensims, a System Dynamics programming environment. MARS is capable of analysing policy combinations at the city/regional level and assessing their impacts over a 30-year planning period in less than one minute. It includes a transport model which simulates the travel behaviour of the population related to their housing and workplace location, a housing development model, a household location choice model, a workplace development model, a workplace location choice model and a fuel consumption and emission model. The sub-models are run iteratively over a 30-year time period. They are linked on the one hand by accessibility as output from the transport model and input into the land-use model and on the other hand by the

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population and workplace distribution as output from the land-use model and input into the transport model. Policies can be applied at any time in the 30-year time period, and will have both immediate effects and lagged effects in subsequent years. The demand for commuting trips is based on trip rates and the employed population, while the demand for ‘other’ trips is a result of applying a constant time budget, hence any time saved on commute trips will result in an increase in ‘other’ trips. A comprehensive description of MARS can be found in Pfaffenbichler, Emberger, and Shepherd (2008). The implications of the model’s assumptions are considered later in this chapter. Tests have been conducted for a number of policy instruments, which have been simulated both alone and in combination. These are listed in the first column of Table 2. For optimisation purposes, a range of possible levels for each policy instrument is assumed, shown as changes from the current strategy in the second and third columns of Table 2. These ranges were based on an initial discussion with the cities concerned on the levels which would be politically acceptable, although it is important to note that judgments on political acceptability will change over time. The abbreviation used for each in subsequent tables is shown in the final column. It is possible, in MARS, to implement any of these instruments in full in any year, and in most cases to introduce them gradually over time. To reduce the complexity of the optimisation process, it is assumed that each instrument is implemented in the fifth year of the 30-year modelling period, which starts in 2001, and then retained at that level for the remaining period (though a

Table 2.

Policy Instrument Descriptions and Ranges.

Policy Instrument Description

Minimum Change

Maximum Change

Short Name

Bus and rail fares area wide (peak) Bus and rail fares area wide (off peak) Road pricing cordon city centre (peak) Road pricing cordon city centre (peak and off peak) Parking charge (long stay) city centre Parking charge (short stay) city centre Fuel tax Bus frequency increase (peak) Bus frequency increase (off peak) Low-cost changes in road capacity (peak) Low-cost changes in road capacity (off peak) PT Awareness campaign – area wide

50% 50% 0 euros 0 euros +0 euros +0 euros 50% 50% 50% 10% 10% Omitted

+100% +100% 10 euros 10 euros +10 euros +10 euros +200% +100% +100% +10% +10% Included

Fare peak Fare off peak RP peak RP all Park long Park short Fuel Freq peak Freq off peak Rcap peak Rcap off peak PT-aware

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slightly different approach was adopted for the optimal combinations presented later in this chapter). The optimisation routine is better suited to testing policy instruments which can be treated as continuous variables, as is the case with all the measures listed in Table 2 other than the last three. Low-cost changes in road capacity were assumed to be generated by traffic management and traffic calming schemes. While these are by nature discrete, they have been treated as continuous to reflect differing levels of application. In its initial form, MARS was not designed to test many of the instruments which subsequent research has found to be most effective (Goodwin, 2010). It has since been enhanced to test awareness raising measures, and some of the results below include these. However, no attempt has been made to model a range of intensities of awareness campaign, given the limited information on the relationship between intensity and impact. In a similar vein, current optimisation research is considering the application of enhancements to walking and cycling, but these results are not yet available. In addition, some tests, not reported here, have included discrete infrastructure projects proposed by the cities concerned. In all cases these tests led to similar conclusions to those of Lautso et al. (2004): the strategies were more effective without these infrastructure projects than with them (May, Shepherd, & Timms, 2000). The final requirement for any given test is an objective function which reflects the objectives or targets of the city. The objective function adopted is a calculation of Net Present Value (NPV) of benefits less costs, based on cost-benefit analysis principles, which reflects the majority of the objectives listed in Table 1. The net benefits are calculated for three sectors. User benefits include time and money savings, less expenditure, as estimated by MARS. Provider benefits include revenues, as estimated by MARS, less operating and capital costs, which were based on the cities’ own estimates. External benefits include net reductions in accidents, noise, local pollutants and CO2 emissions, as estimated by MARS, using accepted unit values for each. All these net benefits are calculated relative to the current strategy, and discounted over a 30-year period to provide a net present value of benefits (NPV) (May et al., 2005). Several tests, not reported here, were conducted using a combined set of targets for access, accidents, emissions, noise and travel time (Emberger, May, & Shepherd, 2008). More recent work exploring synergy has used specific targets for CO2 emissions, delay and accidents (May et al., 2012). Other tests have explored the effects of constraints on finance, and of requirements to meet specific targets for CO2 emissions and accidents (May et al., 2005). The financial constraint adopted uses the concept of Present Value of Finance (PVF) (May et al., 2005), which includes solely the

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provider benefits within the NPV calculation, discounted in the same way. This formulation reflects the fact that, while the financial impact of a fare reduction or road pricing charge is cancelled out between users and providers in calculating NPV, it can have significant implications for the ability of providers to finance the strategy.

OPTIMAL LEVELS FOR INDIVIDUAL POLICY INSTRUMENTS Table 3 summarises the optimal level for each policy instrument, as tested in Edinburgh (Shepherd et al., 2006), and the resulting values for the net present value of benefits (NPV) and the net financial outlay (PVF). Also shown are two of the constituent elements of the NPV: the value of the reduction in CO2 emissions and the value of the reduction in users’ travel time.

Table 3. Optimal Levels for Individual Instruments in Edinburgh Relative to the Current Strategy, and Net Present Value of Selected Impacts. Policy Instrument

Fares area wide (peak) Fares area wide (off peak) Road pricing cordon city centre (peak) Road pricing cordon city centre (peak and off peak) Parking charge (long stay) city centre Parking charge (short stay) city centre Fuel tax/duty Bus frequency increase (peak) Bus frequency increase (off peak) Low-cost changes in road capacity (peak) Low-cost changes in road capacity (off peak) Source: Shepherd et al. (2006). Note: All values in hm.

Value of Travel Time Reduction

PVF

74 26 28

732 15 452

1,217 1,485 1,151

67

8

4

699

+h5

172

8

125

169

+h2

9

1

8

55

1,178 156 51

144 13 11

897 503 230

10,105 367 177

+5%

548

7

464

73

+5%

912

20

745

155

Optimal Level

NPV

50% 50% h5

1,162 407 374

h2

+200% +50% +25%

Value of CO2 Reduction

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It can be seen that, in terms of descending overall impact:  the optimal fuel tax (a 200% increase) achieves the best performance in terms of all indicators  the optimal peak fare (a 50% reduction) is the second most effective in terms of NPV and CO2 emissions and third most effective in terms of travel time reduction, but is the second most expensive instrument (in terms of PVF)  the optimal off-peak and peak road capacity changes (a 5% increase in each case) are the third and fourth most effective in terms of NPV, and second and fifth most effective in reducing travel time; however, they both generate additional CO2 emissions  the optimal off-peak fare (again a 50% reduction) is the fifth most effective in terms of NPV and fourth most effective in reducing CO2 emissions; however, it has a minimal impact on travel time, and is the most expensive instrument (as measured by PVF)  the optimal peak cordon charge (of h5) is the sixth most effective in terms of NPV and travel time reduction, and third most effective in reducing CO2 emissions; it is also the second most successful in generating revenue (positive PVF)  the optimal long stay parking charge (again h5) is the seventh most effective in terms of NPV and travel time reduction, and fourth most effective in generating revenue (positive PVF), but has a minimal impact on CO2 emissions  the optimal peak frequency increase (of 50%) is the eighth most effective in terms of NPV, and fourth most effective in reducing travel time, but has a minimal impact on CO2 emissions, and is the third most expensive instrument  the other three instruments: off-peak frequency, off-peak cordon charges and short stay parking charges, perform poorly on most indicators, though off-peak frequency contributes usefully to travel time reduction, and off-peak charging to revenue generation.

SYNERGY BETWEEN INSTRUMENTS More recent research (May et al., 2012) has assessed the extent to which these policy instruments reinforce one another, and demonstrate synergy, defined as a situation in which, for a given indicator (Mayeres et al., 2003): Gain ðA þ BÞ 4 Gain A þ Gain B

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It took the instruments from Table 2 (with the exception of short stay parking charges) and the optimal levels from Table 3 (except for fuel tax, which was set at +100%), and used the Leeds MARS model to predict percentage changes in three indicators: CO2 emissions, travel time and accidents (the last of which is not reported here). Table 4 shows the impacts for selected pairs of instruments, with synergy calculated as {Gain (A+B) – (Gain A+Gain B)}. For the CO2 indicator, the most effective pairs are fuel tax with fare reductions, road pricing and parking. Increases in CO2 (negative values in Table 4) are only seen where public transport frequencies are increased. Most synergy values are small but positive. The strongest negative synergies occur for the fare reduction with public transport campaign pair and for the parking with road pricing pair, both of which are pairs in which the instruments are to some extent alternative means of achieving the same impact. These apart, it seems reasonable to conclude that no real synergy exists for CO2 emissions, and that most policies are almost perfectly additive. Table 4.

Impacts on CO2 and Travel Time, and Synergy for Each, for Different Pairs of Instruments in Leeds.

Pair of Instrumentsa Fare+Fuel Fare+Park Fare+Freq Fare+RP Fare+PT-aware Fare+Rcap RP+PT-aware RP+Fuel RP+Freq RP+Park RP+Rcap Rcap+Park Rcap+Freq Rcap+Fuel Rcap+PT-aware Freq+Fuel Park+Fuel Park+Freq

% Reduction CO2

Synergy CO2

% Reduction Travel Time

Synergy Travel Time

6.36% 2.37% 2.85% 2.71% 3.55% 1.69% 3.69% 5.14% 4.36% 0.99% 0.45% 0.14% 5.34% 4.13% 2.68% 0.65% 4.78% 4.69%

0.09% 0.01% 0.33% 0.01% 1.31% 0.02% 0.02% 0.05% 0.00% 0.19% 0.03% 0.01% 0.05% 0.07% 0.03% 0.14% 0.02% 0.01%

17.04% 9.29% 10.63% 13.49% 11.08% 17.60% 16.54% 19.14% 11.60% 8.44% 19.07% 15.29% 15.89% 22.06% 20.39% 15.20% 14.58% 7.38%

0.23% 0.10% 0.47% 0.24% 4.19% 0.76% 0.37% 0.23% 0.20% 2.59% 0.94% 0.37% 0.54% 1.48% 1.15% 0.13% 0.01% 0.07%

Source: May et al. (2012). a See short names in Table 3; all instruments applied in the peak only.

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For the travel time indicator, impacts are greater, and never negative. The most effective combinations include fuel tax increases, road capacity increases and road pricing and, in one case, awareness campaigns. Synergy scores are mainly relatively small and negative which implies that these instruments act almost independently. There are some strong negative synergy scores. The largest, at 4.19%, occurs for fare reductions with public transport awareness campaigns. The second, at 2.59%, is for long term parking charges with road pricing charges. These are the same pairs as identified for CO2 emissions, confirming once again that they are to some extent alternatives. These apart, it appears that synergy is small, but negative, for the delay indicator. Table 5 shows the effects on indicators and synergy for more complex combinations of up to six policy instruments. Here, synergy is calculated as {Gain (A+B+ y N) – (Gain A+Gain B+ y Gain N)}. For CO2 the impacts are again relatively small, and greatest for those combinations involving fares, road pricing, fuel tax, road capacity and Table 5.

Impacts on CO2 and Travel Time, and Synergy for Each, for Different Combinations of Instruments in Leeds.

Combinations of Policy Instrumentsa Three instruments Fare+RP+Rcap Fare+Freq+Fuel Rcap+Freq+Fuel Fare+RP+Fuel Fare+RP+Park Rcap+RP+Fuel Rcap+RP+Fuel Four instruments Fare+RP+Rcap+Fuel Fare+Freq+Rcap+Fuel Fare+Freq+RP+Rcap Five instruments Fare+Freq+RP+Rcap+Fuel Fare+RP+Rcap+Fuel+Park Six instruments Fare+ RP+Rcap+Fuel+ Park+Freq

% Reduction Synergy CO2 CO2

% Reduction Travel Time

Synergy Travel Time

2.42% 1.70% 0.81% 7.17% 2.94% 4.90% 4.56%

0.00% 0.54% 0.25% 0.14% 0.18% 0.08% 0.08%

24.15% 21.46% 25.55% 24.69% 14.22% 29.06% 25.05%

1.90% 0.08% 2.11% 0.26% 2.86% 2.17% 1.83%

6.96% 1.56% 2.32%

0.20% 0.68% 0.38%

33.94% 31.05% 27.99%

3.34% 2.65% 2.17%

2.34% 7.21%

0.70% 0.03%

37.61% 34.63%

3.77% 5.98%

2.59%

0.53%

38.29%

6.44%

Source: May et al. (2012). a See short names in Table 3; all instruments applied in the peak only.

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parking charges. Synergies are small, and typically positive. For travel time, the impacts are greater, and increase with the number of instruments. The greatest impacts are for those combinations which include road capacity, road pricing, fuel tax, fares and frequency. Synergies are typically negative, and more so for larger numbers of instruments.

OPTIMAL COMBINATIONS OF INSTRUMENTS In the tests of optimal combinations, instruments were optimised for time horizons: 5 and 15 years after the base year. Levels were assumed to rise linearly between these two years, and to stay at the year-15 level thereafter. This results, in the model, in immediate effects in each of the time horizons, and lagged effects thereafter. Table 6 compares the optimal strategies for Edinburgh and Leeds without and with the inclusion of fares policy. In Edinburgh, the optimal strategy without fares involves increases in frequencies, peak period cordon charges and the maximum increase in road capacity. When fares can be changed they are set to their lowest level, and frequencies and road pricing charges are raised. The NPV is increased by 80%, indicating clearly the benefits to be gained from a fares reduction. Conversely the financial outlay (PVF) becomes much higher. In Leeds, the optimal strategy without fares has high frequency increases, peak and offpeak cordon charges and the maximum road capacity increase. When fares can be changed they are again set to their lowest level, but there is little change in the other instruments. The NPV is increased by 10%; once again the financial outlay (PVF) is much higher. These results illustrate the need to consider both net social benefits (NPV) and net financing requirements (PVF). A fares reduction increases social benefits by encouraging a switch from car to public transport, and hence reducing time lost in congestion. The money saving to current users directly cancels out the financial outlay by providers in subsidies to current users. However, the financial costs of such a subsidy are substantial, and need to be considered in selecting the preferred strategy. Interestingly, without changes in fares, the strategy changes are largely self-funding.

OPTIMAL COMBINATIONS UNDER CONSTRAINTS Table 7 shows, for Edinburgh, the effects on the optimal strategy, with fares policy, of imposing constraints on finance and on CO2 emissions. Table 8

–

50

–

50

–

50

–

50

Fare peak 15a

50

–

50

–

Fare off peak 05a

50

–

50

–

Fare off peak 15a

200 200

200

60

60

200

50

Freq peak 15a

25

Freq peak 05a

200

200

60

30

Freq off peak 05a

200

200

60

40

Freq off peak 15a

4.40

4.40

5.00

3.20

RP peak 05 (h)

Source: May et al. (2005). a % change from current strategy; see short names in Table 3. b RP, road pricing. c RCap, road capacity % change from current strategy, peak and off peak, years 05 and 15.

Edinburgh: No fares Edinburgh: With fares Leeds: No fares Leeds: With fares

Fare peak 05a

3.70

3.70

6.00

5.75

RP peak 15 (h)

1.00

1.00

0.00

0.00

RP off peak 05 (h)b

0.20

0.20

0.00

0.00

RP off peak 15 (h)b

5

5

5

5

RCapc

5,793

5,227

3,604

2,067

NPV (hM)

2,640

519

2,556

798

PVF (hM)

Table 6. Unconstrained Optimal Strategies with and without Control Over Fares, and Implications for NPV and PVF in Edinburgh and Leeds.

50 50 30

50 49 50

50 12 0

50 38 30

60 2 0

60 50 80

60 7 0

Freq off peak 05a 60 16 20

5.0 4.3 5.5

Freq off RP peak peak 15a 05 (h) 6.0 8.2 7.5

RP peak 15 (h) 0.0 2.7 1.5

RP off peak 05 (h)b

Source: May et al. (2005). a % change from current strategy; see short names in Table 3. b RP, road pricing. c RCap, road capacity % change from current strategy, peak and off peak, years 05 year 15 were different.

Unconstrained PVF constraint PVF and CO2 constraints

Fare Fare Fare off Fare off Freq Freq peak 05a peak 15a peak 05a peak 15a peak 05a peak 15a

0.0 4.4 2.5

RP off peak 15 (h)b

Table 7. Constrained optima for Edinburgh and Implications for NPV and PVF.

5 3.3, 5.0 5

RCapc

3,604 3,020 3,132

NPV (hM)

2,556 258 25

PVF (hM)

50 50 46

50 50 47

50 5 22

50 80 36

200 200 66

200 200 96

200 200 147

200 200 76

Freq off peak 15a 4.4 10.0 7.5

RP peak 05 (h) 3.7 6.0 8.9

RP peak 15 (h) 1.0 0.5 2.4

0.2 2.0 4.8

RP off peak RP off peak 05 (h)b 15 (h)b

Source: May et al. (2005). a % change from current strategy; see short names in Table 3. b RP, road pricing. c RCap, road capacity % change from current strategy, peak and off peak, years 05 year 15 off peak were different.

Unconstrained PVF constraint PVF and CO2 constraints

Freq off peak 05a

Constrained optima for Leeds and implications for NPV and PVF.

Fare Fare Fare off Fare off Freq Freq peak 05a peak 15a peak 05a peak 15a peak 05a peak 15a

Table 8.

5 5 4, 20 5, 12

RCapc

5,793 5,638 1,609

NPV (hM)

2,640 921 13

PVF (hM)

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shows the same information for Leeds. The financial constraint was specified as a requirement that the net present value of financial costs, less any revenues generated (PVF) should not exceed that for the current strategy. The CO2 emissions target imposed a requirement that the transport policy should contribute half of the emissions reduction required nationally by the horizon year (on the assumption that technology would deliver the other half). The main responses to the financial constraint in Edinburgh are to reduce frequency increases and to introduce off-peak cordon charges. The NPV is reduced by around 15%. In Leeds frequencies are not changed, but off-peak fares are increased and peak cordon charges are much higher. The NPV is only slightly reduced. Adding the CO2 constraint in Edinburgh leads to some intensification of these changes. It also generates a slight increase in NPV; this suggests that the strategy designed to meet the PVF constraint was not wholly optimal. In Leeds frequency increases are much lower, offpeak cordon charges higher, and road capacity is reduced in most time periods; this results in a loss of almost 70% in the NPV. These results indicate that strategies developed within severe financial constraints (in this case with no more funding than the do minimum strategy) can be designed without substantial loss of performance. They also indicate that a policy designed to deliver reductions in CO2 emissions, in Edinburgh at least, can be achieved without further loss of benefits. However, the Leeds results show that, beyond a certain point, actions may be needed to reduce carbon emissions which substantially reduce economic benefits. In the Leeds example, road capacity reductions have been employed in year 5 and in the off peak in year 15 as an additional means of reducing car use.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND QUALIFICATIONS The results of these optimisation tests reinforce the message from earlier research, that improvements in public transport service fares and frequencies, road pricing and low-cost improvements in road capacity are all effective contributors to a sustainable transport strategy. Where tested, public awareness campaigns also contributed effectively, and it can be expected that improvements in walking and cycling will also be beneficial. Parking policies are a possible substitute for road pricing, but are likely to be less effective. Infrastructure projects are less likely to make a costeffective contribution. The intensity with which each of these should be

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applied will differ between cities, but the overall policy mix appears to be appropriate for all the European cities studied. Similar strategies can be developed which are financially neutral by comparison with existing strategies, but still achieve virtually the same economic benefits as unconstrained optimal strategies. In some cities, it may also be possible to design strategies which achieve targets for CO2 reduction without further loss of benefit. However, where car use need to be reduced further to meet climate change challenges, there can be a significant tradeoff between economic and climate change benefits. These policy implications are, of course, dependent on the modelling assumptions made. It is probable that strategies could be further enhanced by considering a wider range of low-cost improvements in walking and cycling and by promoting awareness of the alternatives. Relaxing the constraints on the timing of implementation, and allowing for phased implementation, could potentially increase benefits further. Conversely, it is possible that the MARS model may over-estimate benefits, despite having been validated on changes in travel patterns in Vienna (Pfaffenbichler et al., 2008), and it may be that the assumption of a constant travel time budget will have given undue emphasis to certain types of policy instrument. Given recent signs of a downturn in amounts of travel in developed countries, it will be important to reconsider this assumption.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINESE CITIES Despite these caveats, the policy implications are of sufficient importance to justify considering their implications for Chinese cities. The results reported above are, of course, for European cities with low levels of population growth and relative high initial levels of car ownership. It is clear, therefore, that they cannot directly be transferred to the context of Chinese cities. However, they do point to a number of conclusions, both for the process of policy formulation and for the resulting policies.

Implications for Policy Formulation In Chinese cities, as in Europe, it will be important to consider a wide range of policy instruments, and to draw on the interaction between them. The starting point will be an awareness of the full range of policy instruments and of their performance in a Chinese context. It will be helpful to

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understand the contribution of each type of instrument on its own, and to identify the level at which it can make the most effective contribution. KonSULT and other knowledgebases should provide some assistance in this, particularly if supported by option generation tools. However, it will be necessary to obtain more empirical evidence on policy performance in China. However, as in Europe, it can be expected that no one policy instrument will be sufficient on its own, and that more will be gained from a carefully designed package of policy instruments. Guidance on the principles of packaging, and on the extent to which synergy might occur between pairs of instruments, will be of value in deciding how best to combine policy instruments into an overall strategy. It seems likely that the principles developed in a European context will be transferable to China, though this should be tested. It will then be important to assess suitable combinations of policy instruments, and to identify the levels of each which best contribute to the key objectives of the city, including climate change reduction. The combination of a dynamic LUTI model and an optimisation procedure as described in this paper offers a rapid and interactive means of conducting such tests.

Implications for Policy Packages It appears that public transport fares and service levels, road pricing or parking charges and low-cost improvements to road capacity will make important contributions to an effective strategy. Land-use planning, awareness campaigns and improvements in walking and cycling also appear to be important, but were not tested as fully in the research reported here. Infrastructure projects have been found, in the European context, to be less effective contributors to an overall strategy. This is less likely to be the case in the rapidly growing cities of China, but it will still be important to ensure that those infrastructure projects which are pursued are cost effective, and compatible with the other elements of the strategy. Chapters 9, 12 and 13 offer examples of the application of individual policy instruments of these kinds in China. However, Chinese cities need to consider appropriate packages of policy instruments, to ensure that the benefits of a specific policy such as bus rapid transit are maximised. There is little evidence as yet of the development of such integrated strategies at a city level, although government policy documents offer some support for the approach, as indicated in Chapters 3 and 5.

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Strategies of this kind can be designed, in the European context, to be financially neutral. Once again, it is unlikely that this can be achieved in Chinese cities, but it should be possible, by careful design, to reduce the financial burden on city governments. Strategies can also be designed to deliver desired reductions in CO2 emissions. However, the elements of such a strategy are likely to differ from those included in a strategy designed primarily to reduce travel times. In particular additions to road capacity are likely to be more limited. For this reason it will be important for cities to identify their principal objectives, and the trade-offs between them, at the start of the policy formulation process.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research reported here was funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and the University of Leeds and conducted in collaboration with Dr Guenter Emberger and Dr Simon Shepherd. We are grateful for their support, and for the advice and encouragement of the cities involved. We also acknowledge the helpful advice of two anonymous reviewers. The conclusions are, however, our own and do not necessarily reflect any of the cities’ transport strategies.

REFERENCES Buehler, R., & Pucher, J. (2011). Sustainable transport in Freiburg. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 5(1), 43–70. Emberger, G., May, A. D., & Shepherd, S. P. (2008). Optimal urban transport strategies: A comparison of CBA and target based approaches. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 2(1), 58–75. European Conference of Ministers of Transport. (1995). Urban travel and sustainable development. Paris: OECD. European Conference of Ministers of Transport. (2002). Implementing sustainable urban travel policies. Paris: OECD. Goodwin, P. B. (2010). Transport and the economy: Evidence to the house of commons transport committee. London: The Stationery Office. Haken, H. (1983). Advanced synergetics: Instability hierarchies of self-organizing systems and devices. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. KonSULT. (2012). Website. Retrieved from http://www.konsult.leeds.ac.uk Lautso, K., Spiekermann, K., & Wegener, M. (2004). Planning and research of policies for land use and transport for increasing urban sustainability (PROPOLIS): Final report to the European commission. Brussels: European Commission. Available at http://www.ltcon.fi/propolis

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May, A. D. (2004). Singapore: The development of a world class transport system. Transport Reviews, 24(1), 79–101. May, A. D. (2009). Improving decision-making for sustainable urban transport. European Journal of Transport Infrastructure Research, 9(3), 184–201. May, A. D., & Crass, M. (2007). Sustainability in transport: Implications for policy makers. Transportation Research Record, 2017, 1–9. May, A. D., Kelly, C., & Shepherd, S. P. (2006). The principles of integration in urban transport strategies. Transport Policy, 13, 319–327. May, A. D., Kelly, C., Shepherd, S., & Jopson, A. (2012). An option generation tool for potential urban transport policy packages. Transport Policy, 20, 162–173. May, A. D., & Marsden, G. (2010). Urban transport and mobility. Paris: International Transport Forum. May, A. D., Shepherd, S. P., Emberger, G., Ash, A., Zhang, X., & Paulley, N. (2005). Optimal land use and transport strategies: Methodology and application to European cities. Transportation Research Record, 1924, 129–138. May, A. D., Shepherd, S. P., & Timms, P. M. (2000). Optimum transport strategies for European cities. Transportation, 27, 285–315. Mayeres, I, Proost, S., Emberger, G., Grant-Muller, S., Kelly, C., & May, A. D. (2003). Deliverable D4: Synergies and conflicts of transport packages, SPECTRUM (Study of Policies Regarding Economic Instruments Complementing Transport Regulation and the Understanding of Physical Measures). Leeds: Institute for Transport Studies. Nelder, J. A., & Mead, R. (1965). A simplex algorithm for function minimization. Computer Journal, 7, 308. Pfaffenbichler, P., Emberger, G., & Shepherd, S. P. (2008). The integrated dynamic land use and transport model MARS. Networks and Spatial Economics, 8(2–3), 183–200. Press, W. H., Flannery, B. P., Teukolsky, S. A., & Vettering, W. T. (1990). Numerical recipes. Cambridge: The Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge. Shepherd, S. P., Zhang, X., Emberger, G., May, A. D., Hudson, M., & Paulley, N. (2006). Designing optimal urban transport strategies: The role of individual policy instruments and the impact of financial constraints. Transport Policy, 13(1), 49–65. Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill Higher Education. UITP. (2006). Mobility in cities database. Brussels: UITP.

CHAPTER 8 DELIVERING TRANSPORT POLICY CHANGE IN CHINA: LESSONS FROM THE UK Joe KENDAL, Marcus ENOCH and Stephen ISON ABSTRACT Purpose – This chapter draws on examples from the United Kingdom where changes in transport policy direction have occurred and considers how lessons that emerge might be applied in China. Methodology – It is difficult to change the direction of transport policy decisions once embarked upon. The reason for this relates to the high cost and long-term nature of many transport interventions and the complex nature of transport problems which require the introduction of packages of measures rather than individual projects. This complexity that frequently sees changing circumstances can however lead to the adoption of a new policy direction. The issue is how such changes in policy direction can be achieved given the constraints identified. To this end, this chapter presents a series of notable examples of policy change from the transport sector in the United Kingdom to draw lessons from both the development of overarching transport policies and the implementation of specific transport planning measures as instruments of policy across a geographical range of transport sectors. Specifically it draws on a literature review and presents

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 167–192 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003010

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a series of vignettes to outline the motivations and factors which can be seen to bring about transport policy change in the surface (land) transport sector. Findings – Specifically the chapter finds that so-called ‘agents of change’ can be categorised as follows: 1. Public and political identification of a problem; 2. The emergence of suitable policy ideas or solutions; and 3. The occurrence of some kind of event in the policy arena. Research limitations/implications – From these three categories, lessons are drawn from which policy makers and policy shapers in locations other than the United Kingdom (particularly China) can benefit. Practical and social implications – The chapter aims to influence the broader debate in terms of delivering transport policy change – with the emergence of agents, most notably the growth of the environmental movement and its influence on policy, a comprehensive research base for policy making and political events at the UK and international level. Originality – The chapter is based on a number of vignettes that seek to identify the factors that are influential in supporting policy change on a national, area-wide or site-specific basis in the United Kingdom. Keywords: Transport policy; planning; agents for change

INTRODUCTION Until now, transport in China has been dominated by the supply side agenda as the country seeks to ‘catch up’ with countries in the West. Thus, Wang (2007) reports that even though the superhighway network is currently being built at the rate of 3,000 km per year, it will still take 10–20 years to do so. Meanwhile, this approach has been reinforced by the Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2006–2010). This states that the first five of the seven main tasks in the transportation element were to accelerate railway development; improve the road network; further develop waterway transport; optimise the layout of civil airports; and optimise the distribution of transport resources, whilst the remaining two related to managing the current system more effectively by expediting the development of high technology and modern

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management; and reforming the management system of the transport industry. Yet there are signs that things are slowly starting to change. First, Gan (2003) noted several issues leading the Chinese Government to follow a more sustainable transportation policy. These are: 1. Intensive land use in cities is restricting infrastructure development; 2. Consumption patterns are now shifting from bicycles to cars; 3. Energy use from transport has risen almost fourfold from 25 Mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) in 1991 to 95 Mtoe in 2010. 4. Government is heavily subsidising road development whilst also prioritising public transport development; 5. A significant proportion of the vehicle fleet has poor emission and fuel economy performance; 6. Inadequate enforcement of emission standards is leading to environmental and health issues; 7. Government subsidies of new road infrastructure are favouring more affluent ‘car owning’ population segments at the expense of poorer people. There is also anecdotal evidence that local people affected by new infrastructure schemes are beginning to campaign against being re-located in a more organised manner than previously, whilst cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are now beginning to introduce packages of demand side or ‘Transportation Demand Management’ measures to address issues such as congestion and air pollution. Finally, as noted already throughout this book, and particularly in Chapters 3 and 5, the development of transport in China is in many ways different from that elsewhere. In particular, there is the unique context of Chinese cities, whereby:      

high population densities; relatively low but quickly rising income and motorisation levels; rapid urban growth and structural change; a powerful government relative to civil society; the urban–rural dichotomy; and the mixed composition of land uses

influence how people and goods are moved about (Wang, 2010) and more pertinently for this chapter, influence the extent to which policy interventions might succeed.

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In summary, should the Chinese development path begin to mirror that of Western economies, then it may be necessary for policy makers and practitioners to change their approach to implementing transport policy. To this end, this chapter presents a series of notable examples of policy change from the transport sector in the United Kingdom including both the development of over-arching transport policies and the implementation of specific transport planning measures across a geographical range of transport sectors. In considering lessons for the achievement of policy change, it draws on a literature review and presents a series of vignettes to outline the motivations and factors which can be seen to bring about transport policy change in the surface (land) transport sector. The structure is as follows. The next section outlines the scope, nature and scale of this review, followed by sections examining recent examples of policy change at the strategic and tactical levels respectively. The final section concludes by providing a series of lessons for transport policy makers in the United Kingdom and beyond.

TRANSPORT POLICY AT THE STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL LEVELS Conceptually, transport policy can be considered to take place at two levels, that is the strategic and the tactical, and both are considered in this review. At the strategic level, a policy is ‘a statement by a government of what it intends to do or not do’ (Tuominen & Himanen, 2007, p. 39) usually underpinned by a series of themes (sustainability, accessibility and safety are common themes in transport) and objectives. Studies of policy formulation at the strategic level tend to focus on a range of internal and external factors which can be seen to be important within decision making processes (Dudley & Richardson, 2000). More tactically, the implementation of individual instruments and packages of instruments represents the delivery stage of transport policy (Button & Hensher, 2005). These instruments are the means by which the objectives of transport policy are to be achieved. Table 1 presents a taxonomy of such instruments, which are classified by the terms incentives, disincentives or other. Incentives are those instruments which attempt to make competing modes of transport more attractive to car users. Conversely, measures seeking to make car use less attractive to the user are disincentives (Ison & Rye, 2003). In addition, a number of other

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Table 1. The Instruments of Sustainable Transport Policy.

Incentives

Measure

Description

Enhanced public transport provision

Improved frequency, reliability, coverage, service quality, infrastructure, priority measures, fare structures Bus/rail based transport options on the edge of towns and cities/areas of high demand Improved marketing; improved timetabling

Park and ride schemes

Disincentives

Public transport publicity/campaigns Cycling/pedestrian improvements Road pricing Road closures Rationing – quantity Parking control Traffic management Road space reallocation

Other

Travel planning/smarter choices Integrated land use and planning

Cycle hire; cycle routes; cycleway and footpath improvements Charging for use of roads, or for access to certain areas Prohibiting access for motor vehicles Access to areas prohibited once a certain level of vehicle numbers reached Limiting provision, charging A range of measures to control/limit car use in certain locations/settings Reducing road capacity for cars whilst increasing capacity for pedestrians/bikes/ public transport Strategies for influencing travel behaviour and encouraging more sustainable travel Design of new housing/retail/leisure developments to minimise transport demand

Source: Adapted from O’Flaherty (1997).

instruments exist which can act as act as an incentive or disincentive. These instruments could be aimed at addressing transport sustainability. Due to the complexities underpinning the demand for private car use, most strategy approaches favour the implementation of integrated or packages of policy measures, which are usually based on the following principles (Vigar, 2002):  Expanding and improving public transport networks to encourage modal shift from private transport;  Improving provision for pedestrians, cyclists and improvements/encouragement of environmentally friendly forms of transport;  Using both traditional and innovative traffic management measures such as traffic calming, traffic restraint and pedestrianisation schemes to

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control speed and increase reliability, as opposed to designing for maximum vehicular capacity; and  Integrating the use of transport planning, land-use planning and development control to reduce car dependency and eliminate unnecessary travel. Strategic transport policy and the instruments of which it is composed can be developed and delivered across a range of different dimensions. For example, transport policy formulation in the United Kingdom can be explored in the context of a geographical classification, which Headicar (2009) breaks down into:  EU transport policy making – international policy and planning;  National transport policy making – white papers and associated planning guidance;  Regional transport policy making – regional transport strategies; and  Local transport policy making – local transport plans. In addition, Enoch (2012) notes that transport policy can also be applied at a still more localised ‘site-specific’ scale, for example through travel plans or access management strategies. On a similar basis, instruments of transport policy, whether applied individually or as a wider strategy, can also be classified geographically in terms of the scope of their implementation, as suggested in Table 2 (Banister, 2005). These geographical classifications of transport policy formulation and delivery will be used to structure this chapter. Contextualising transport policy in this way is helpful, since it allows the division of the policy arena into smaller sub-sectors for analysis.

POLICY CHANGE AT THE STRATEGIC LEVEL Numerous authors (e.g. Docherty & Shaw, 2003; Glaister, Burnham, Stevens, & Travers, 2006; Headicar, 2009) have attempted to document, examine and explain the circumstances behind the most notable examples of surface transport policy change at the strategic level in the United Kingdom. Two such national transport policy events are:  The emergence of transport’s new realism in the 1990s; and  The subsequent restoration of old policy paradigms in the new millennium.

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Table 2. Level of Involvement Strategic

Tactical

Relating the Strategic and Tactical Levels to Geographic Dimensions of Transport Policy. Scope of Instrument Use

Context

Practical Examples

International

International policy coverage Competition, environmental and safety standards; investment in large scale international infrastructure projects. National Nationwide policy coverage Free bus travel for over 60s; speed limits; fuel duty. Area-wide Urban, intra-urban, London/Durham road (regional/local) urban–rural, rural pricing; park and ride Urban – historic city, central schemes; light rail; business district, shopping pedestrianisation; parking district strategies; demand Rural – commuter responsive transport; countryside, rural tourist community transport. areas, ‘deep’ rural areas Site-specific Business parks; out-of-town Travel plans; parking retail/leisure parks; management; car share airports; honeypots; schemes. universities; other significant trip generating locations

Source: Adapted from Banister (2005), Headicar (2009) and Enoch and Zhang (2008).

Towards a New Realism for Transport The dominant UK transport policy ideology for most of the second half of the twentieth century was one constructed on the premise of ‘predict and provide’ (Goodwin, 1999). That is, forecast future demand for travel by various modes was extrapolated, with subsequent attempts made to match the supply of infrastructure to the potential demand (Owens, 1995). This approach was evident in the way that forecast demand for road travel was dealt with. Following the end of World War II, and for decades beyond, the United Kingdom embarked on an ambitious series of roadbuilding programmes (Hibbs, 2000). As car dominance increased, a forecast decline in public transport use was used to justify cuts in spending on rail and bus networks. For a period of around fifty years post World War II, the principal concern amongst governments of all political persuasions was to

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embark upon a road-building programme, which paid little consideration to other transport modes or new forms of spatial development. De-regulation and privatisation of public transport services led to their marginalisation, ensuring that they largely became an option for those with no alternative (Vigar, 2002). Goodwin (1999) pinpointed 1989 as the highpoint of predict and provide. At this time the Department of Transport (1989) released new road traffic forecasts which suggested that vehicle traffic would increase by between 82% and 134% for the period 1988–2025. The initial policy response to these figures by the incumbent Conservative Government was to publish a new White Paper entitled ‘Roads for Prosperity’ (DoT, 1989). This document proposed a substantial increase in road building in order to cater for expected demand and alleviate congestion on the road network. Providing additional road capacity was still seen as the primary solution to transport problems. However, events in both the public and political sector in the years preceding and immediately following the release of the White Paper led in the longer term to a more considered response to the road traffic forecasts. As a result, road-building schemes in the 1990s were scaled down, and by 1998 a new Labour Government had released its own transport White Paper entitled ‘A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone’ (DETR, 1998). This was a significant moment, since it largely abandoned the principle of predict and provide. Three primary change agents emerge. These are:  The growth of the environmental movement and its influence on policy;  The development of a comprehensive research base for policy making; and  Political events at the domestic and European level. These three factors are examined below. The Growth of the Environmental Movement and Its Influence on Policy Towards the end of the 1980s and through the early 1990s, environmental concerns began to permeate transport policy debates. Of particular concern were the rising CO2 emissions from the transport sector and the growing understanding of their environmental impacts (Potter, 1997). A growing environmental movement had emerged in the 1960s and 1970s, though a number of events in the 1980s and 1990s served to reawaken public feeling (Vigar, 2002). First, the Brundtland Commission (WCED, 1987) introduced the term ‘sustainable development’, placing it front and centre in the political and public psyche. Second, the 1992 Climate Convention in Rio de

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Janeiro, and subsequent conferences at Kyoto, Buenos Aires and The Hague, reinforced emerging issues relating to environmental degradation and climate change caused by human behaviour. At the same time domestically, wider public opinion was influenced by high-profile campaigns to prevent construction of some of the most controversial road-building schemes of the day, including those at Solsbury Hill (Bath), Twyford Down (Winchester) and the Newbury Bypass (Headicar, 2009). Evolving public attitudes to the environment domestically were demonstrated when the Green Party secured a 15% share of the vote in the 1989 elections for the European Parliament. This prompted all the major political parties to review their policies in an attempt to portray a greener image (Glaister et al., 2006). For the incumbent Conservative Government, this can first be identified in the release of the 1990 Environment White Paper entitled ‘This Common Inheritance’ (DoE, 1990), which hinted at a change in government thinking on transport policy. This was followed by the release of a Department of Transport Report entitled ‘Transport and the Environment’ (DoT, 1991), which acknowledged growth in environmental concerns and stated that ‘we must accept that preserving the environment has a cost and be prepared to bear it’ (p. 3). Further policy transport policy commitments emerged in the 1994 White Paper on Sustainable Development (DoE, 1994), to the extent that ‘by the mid-1990s it seemed as though convergence was taking place around a new and quite distinctive set of transport and planning policies y which given time would translate into a very different era of planning practice’ (Headicar, 2009, p. 115). A Comprehensive Research Base for Policy Making Changing attitudes were helped by a series of scientific and academic research reports which emerged in the early to mid-1990s which helped embellish beliefs and support policy re-orientation (Goodwin, 1999). The aforementioned 1991 report entitled ‘Transport: The New Realism’ (Goodwin, Hallett, Kenny, & Stokes, 1991) first raised a number of key principles on which it was asserted that there was wide academic and professional consensus. Namely that:  A significant imbalance existed between expected trends in mobility and the capacity of the transport system to cope with them;  Growth in reliance on car use was becoming problematic to the extent that it no longer succeeded in realising its own objectives;  It was not possible to provide the required capacity in the transport system to meet unrestrained demand for travel;

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 New methods of demand management were required which were economically efficient, in addition to being attractive to both car owners and non-car owners; and  Technically feasible policy solutions to address transport problems did exist, but required harmonised implementation. Simple expansion of road capacity could no longer be the centrepiece of transport policy. The principles of new realism were reinforced by the 18th Environmental Pollution Report published by the Royal Commission, which demonstrated the unsustainability of current trends in the transport sector (RCEP, 1994). This document also advocated a wide range of policies intended to reduce the environmental impact of transport, and proposed strict targets for limiting CO2 emissions. The RCEP report was followed almost immediately by the publication of evidence by the Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA, 1994), which suggested that new roads built to remedy congestion may actually themselves be responsible for generating additional demand for car use. The SACTRA report provided conclusive evidence of induced transport demand through infrastructure provision, challenging the underlying discourse of ‘predict and provide’. Publication of the SACTRA report was a particularly significant event since the evidence contradicted DoT policy that new road schemes should be assessed on the presumption that they do not add to total traffic (Headicar, 2009; Whitelegg, 1997). Following this report, government policy changed to requiring the traffic generation arising from every proposed road scheme to be assessed. This led Vigar (2002, p. 87) to conclude that ‘while an environmental rhetoric was used as a justification for policy shift, it appears that the technical argumentation put forward by SACTRA provided the scientific evidence that was vital’. Thus, at the same time as public attitudes were changing, so was the evidence base on which policy was made. Furthermore, the UK government was beginning to see positive feedback from progressive transport policies implemented by European countries, such as large scale city centre pedestrianisation in Germany, heavy investment in public transport in many European countries, Dutch traffic calming, and tentative experiments with road pricing and tolling in Scandinavia (Goodwin, 1999). Such factors therefore supported the move towards transport policy re-orientation. Political Events at the Domestic and International Level In addition to the aforementioned increase in the Green Party vote to 15% at the 1989 European Parliament elections, other political events combined to provide momentum towards transport policy change.

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In 1989, Michael Portillo, the then Transport Minister, chaired a conference of European Transport Ministers at which they received a number of expert reports on the extent of transport’s contribution to environmental pollution. The projected future growth of emissions from the transport sector, driven in part by increases in car ownership and usage was also reinforced. Thus, problems of car use were reframed and extended from purely congestion concerns to wider environmental impacts (Goodwin, 1999). At the following year’s conference a resolution was adopted which differed markedly from previous multi-state transport policy statements and asserted that:  traffic management should be used to further environmental objectives in transport policy, both in relation to demand management and in encouraging modal shift;  effective and acceptable means of reducing the use of the private car in urban areas need to be applied; and  assessments of infrastructure investment proposals should include traffic and environmental evaluations of the alternatives including extending railway or other public transport infrastructure and not building infrastructure. In 1992, at the UN ‘Earth Summit’ Conference in Rio de Janeiro, the UK Government signed the Climate Change Convention which targeted reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels. Given the contribution of the transport sector, and private car use in particular, to greenhouse gas emissions, domestic transport policy again came to the fore (Headicar, 2009). In combination with the growing environmental movement amongst the public, and the increasing recognition of the futility of road building as a sustainable transport solution, such political events contributed significantly to the reframing of transport policy towards a demand management approach (Vigar, 2002).

Transport Policy in the New Millennium – A Return to Old Paradigms? Following the election of the new Labour Government in 1997, a series of key policy documents were released which signalled a new approach to transport policy orientation. The 1998 White Paper ‘A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone’ (DETR, 1998) and its delivery document ‘Transport 2010: The 10 Year Plan’ (DETR, 2000) provided a ‘clear sense of direction y [and] comprehensive plans for delivery’ (Glaister et al.,

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2006, p. 33). The 1998 White Paper put travel demand management in place as the key rhetorical aim of transport policy, fundamentally endorsing the failure of predict and provide as a framework for policy development (Vigar, 2002). Such optimism did not last, and Glaister et al. (2006, p. 33) asserted that ‘the 10 year plan turned out to be the high water mark of New Labour’s commitment to an integrated and sustainable transport policy’. Subsequent White Papers released in 2004 (‘The Future of Transport’, DfT 2004) and 2007 (‘Towards a Sustainable Transport System’, DfT 2007) saw a move away from the integrated approach and back towards the restoration of supply-sided transport policies, if not through new road building then through capacity enhancement by widening and extending existing infrastructure (Docherty & Shaw, 2008). Indeed, of the 2004 White Paper, Headicar (2009, p. 138) reported that ‘in a manner reminiscent of the former Soviet Union, the previous (1998) White Paper was air-brushed out of existence – not only any mention of the document itself, but also several of its distinctive features: notably integration, social inclusion, traffic reduction and even sustainable development’. The remainder of this section is devoted to exploring the most influential factors in the retrenchment of transport’s new realism and subsequent policy change. From the literature, the following change agents emerge as particularly significant and will be examined in greater detail:  The power of the unforeseen event – the fuel tax protests and the Hatfield rail crash;  Institutional changes at the national level; and  The public mood, congestion growth and the strength of the motoring lobby.

The Power of the Unforeseen Event – The Fuel Tax Protests and the Hatfield Rail Crash The Fuel Duty Escalator (FDE) was established in 1992, in part at least to limit the growth of vehicle emissions. An annual increase in fuel duty, initially set at 3%, was raised to 5% in 1995, and 6% by the new government in 1996. However, the combined effect of the FDE and rising world oil prices saw the fuel price index increase by 23% between January 1998 and July 2000 (Begg & Gray, 2004b). Further increases in crude oil prices in Autumn 2000 culminated in fuel price protests, whereby commercial vehicle drivers and others blockaded oil refineries and halted

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distribution of road fuels to the extent that many essential services were compromised (Glaister, 2002). Such was the political significance of the fuel protests that the response of the government was to abandon the fuel duty escalator. Its rejection served to contribute to increases in traffic volume, congestion and associated externalities, and led commentators to question governmental commitment to sustainable transport policies (Glaister et al., 2006). In addition, the fuel protests helped to concentrate ‘the minds of ministers on the dangers of overlooking the interests of private vehicle users’ (Parkhurst & Dudley, 2004, p. 54). Indeed, Begg and Gray (2004b, p. 70) cite the fuel tax protests as ‘a critical turning point for transport policy. Surprised by the strength of feeling over a transport issue, the government realised that, not only had it to deliver (and be seen to deliver) on transport, it had to do so without further alienating a powerful motoring lobby’. Almost immediately following the fuel protests, another event, the Hatfield rail crash, the third fatal train accident in three years, brought the spotlight onto government public transport policy in addition to its road policy (Headicar, 2009). The cause of the Hatfield crash was a broken rail, linked to poor maintenance by the network operator, Railtrack, who responded by imposing speed restrictions across much of the rail network for fear of a repeat incident (Wolmar, 2001). This led to severe delays and cancellations, casting doubt on the ability of the government to deliver the public transport system improvements it had earlier promised (Glaister et al., 2006). It also had serious effects for rail investment, as much of the money allocated for improvements in the Ten Year Plan had to be diverted for the purpose of simply maintaining and renewing the existing railway (Headicar, 2009). These combined events, occurring as they did at the relatively early stages of the move towards new realism, caused immediate problems for the government in their new course of policy action. The motoring lobby was invigorated and strengthened by the fuel price protests, and public scepticism at the government’s ability to transform public transport services was increasing. As Glaister et al. (2006, p. 255) asserted, these events served to illustrate that government’s ‘policy of getting people out of their cars and on to public transport was seen to be failing both as a political project, and in practical terms’. Institutional Changes at the Strategic Level The events described above also led to institutional changes at the national level that further impacted on policy change.

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Upon election in 1997, Labour created the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR). This reflected the new joined-up approach to transport planning advocated in the 1998 White Paper, which recognised the inter-dependency between transport and the environment, planning and economic development (Begg & Gray, 2004a). It also brought to an end an association of the old Department of Transport as a narrow and isolated office of Government, which stood alone and concerned itself primarily with road building (Headicar, 2009). Instead, ‘transport would no longer go its own way, but would be integrated with environmental objectives’ (Grayling, 2002, p. 149). Following the fuel protests and the concerns over the safety of the railway network, the Department was increasingly perceived both as anti-car and as incompetent in its handling of public transport. In response, the DETR was broken up following the Government’s re-election in 2001. Environment was separated from transport, and a new Department, that of Transport, Local Government and the Regions (DTLR) was formed. This unpinning of transport from the environment was taken by many to reflect the diminution of the environmental agenda in forthcoming transport policy decisions (Headicar, 2009). The DTLR itself lasted only one year, until the planning function was removed and transport reverted to its former standalone status as the Department for Transport (DfT). Thus, institutional arrangements had come full circle to those which had met the incoming government in 1997. Headicar (2009) considered this as further evidence of the return to the previous policy paradigm more associated with predict and provide than new realism. Glaister et al. (2006, p. 248) concluded that the dismantling of the DETR and the reintroduction of a standalone DfT ensured that ‘the direction of transport policy, unfettered by other considerations, transferred to a Secretary of State who was content to respond to pressures from the business community and public opinion for the construction of more roads’. Furthermore, it is also prudent to assert that the disbandment of the Ministry responsible for introducing the concept of an integrated approach to transport policy and planning (the DETR) made it increasingly difficult for the government to pursue such an approach. As Begg and Gray (2004a, p. 68) concluded: ‘the institutional restructuring probably mirrored a shifting political perspective; a sustainable transport policy was – to a degree – expendable in the face of other, potentially more damaging, political pressures’. The pressures to which they refer were from a changing public mood and an increasingly powerful motoring lobby.

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The Public Mood and the Motoring Lobby Whilst public concern surrounding the environmental impact of transport was demonstrated to have played a role in policy progression towards new realism, so too can public opinion be seen to have influenced retrenchment from it. The fuel price protests described previously provide good evidence of this, as summarised by Glaister et al. (2006, p. 255): ‘it became apparent in 2000 that they (the general public) would resist paying ever-higher prices for fuel if the object of government policy was to cut emissions of carbon dioxide by pricing them off the road y the protest movement was led by farmers and truck drivers whose livelihood was most directly affected by increased fuel costs, but it received support from a much wider public’. The 1998 New Deal for Transport advanced two particular problems which the government would seek to address, those of congestion and pollution. Begg and Gray (2004b) assert that whilst United Kingdom and EU legislation had stemmed the rise of vehicle emissions, car ownership, use and congestion continued to increase. The political reality then was that the public demanded action – in the form of road infrastructure investment – at the expense of environmental concerns. This all coincided with a period of sustained economic growth, which further fuelled car use, which increased pressure on the government to act. As Headicar (2009, p. 129) notes ‘nothing new appeared to be happening which would make much difference to the worsening conditions which people were experiencing on the ground’. This point was borne out in opinion polls which highlighted public dissatisfaction with the government’s perceived lack of capital spending on transport during its first term (Begg & Gray, 2004b). Indeed, at the time of the fuel tax protests, the government fell behind the Conservatives in the opinion polls for the first time since their election. Chastened by this experience, it could be said then that ‘the realities of the practical dimension of policy-making had made themselves felt, [and] the political dimension had turned against an aggressively environmental policy stance’ (Glaister et al., 2006, p. 255). .

TRANSPORT POLICY CHANGE AT THE TACTICAL LEVEL Having examined instances of policy change at the strategic level, this section now examines the concept through the implementation of transport strategies/instruments at the tactical level, specifically in urban centres and in historic cities.

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Transport Planning in Urban Centres Urban areas offer unique opportunities for addressing unsustainable transport. This is because short travelling distances and high volumes of people serve to make public transport, walking and cycling particularly viable alternatives to private car use (Banister, 2005). As such, a range of unique initiatives can be seen to have emerged at the local level in urban centres. This section will examine the development of a number of these initiatives in order to explain the motivations for change. It begins with an assessment of factors behind the success and failure of a number of urban road pricing schemes. The Emergence of the Policy of Last Resort In transport policy terms, road pricing has historically been cited as the classic idea whose time may never come (Borins, 1988). The economic principles underlying road pricing have been long established, and the theoretical benefits and costs expansively discussed (Knight, 1924; Pigou, 1920; Vickrey, 1969; Walters, 1961; Wardrop, 1952). It is true that practical examples of its application are few. Failed attempts to introduce schemes in locations as diverse as Hong Kong (Borins, 1988; Dawson, 1986; Hau, 1990), Edinburgh (Gaunt, Rye, & Allen 2007; Rye, Ison & Enoch 2005; Ryley, 2005), Cambridge (Ison, 1998; Ison & Rye, 2005) and Manchester serve to reinforce the difficulties faced by those who would seek to implement such a measure. However, a long-standing paper-based scheme in Singapore (Phang & Toh, 2004; Wilson, 1988) – now converted to an electronic road pricing system – and more recently, the introduction of the London congestion charge (Santos, 2005), prove that road pricing can form part of a coherent transport policy. From analysis of both successful and failed attempts at introducing road pricing variants in urban centres, it is possible to identify a range of factors important in the development and implementation of such a radical policy measure. Acceptance of the Need for Change Jones (1998) noted that road pricing is often argued against on the grounds that existing road conditions are not bad enough to justify the introduction of something which, to many people, is viewed as an extreme measure. In the minds of many people, less draconian measures, such as public transport improvements, will suffice. For road pricing to find favour amongst the general public therefore, it seems apparent that there must be a consensus that the level of congestion is severe enough to warrant its use (Ison, 2004; Ison & Rye, 2005; Johansson & Mattsson, 1995).

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This assertion is borne out in the case of the most high profile road pricing schemes in Singapore and London, where concerns with rising congestion levels were the primary motivator for their development (Jones, 2003). In terms of road pricing then, motivations for change are in part dependent on people’s awareness of problems. Road pricing will only become acceptable if people both appreciate the current and future problems caused by car use, and can be convinced of the need for policy measures to solve these problems (Rietveld & Verhoef, 1998; Steg, 2003). A Stable Political Platform Practical examples of politicians working together to implement pricing measures have been demonstrated by the road tolling experience in Norway, where revenue generated is used to finance road-building projects, and which has been in operation in three cities (Bergen, Oslo and Trondheim) for a number of years. Larsen and Ostmoe (2001) assert that whilst the Norwegian road tolling is not actually a direct model of road pricing, it still demonstrates some of the features associated with road pricing and would be expected to generate similar public attitudes. That the tolls were able to be implemented therefore, was testament to collaboration between the major political parties of Norway who, in view of previous under-funding of roads in these urban areas, agreed not to make a political issue of the incumbent government’s support for their introduction. On this basis, local politicians were empowered to take the unpopular decision of introducing road tolls without the support of a majority of public voters. As discussed further in Chapter 10, Reducing Car Use in Urban Areas, this volume Ison and Rye (2003) note the importance of political stability in the road pricing implementation process, citing the abandonment of a number of road pricing schemes as a result of local authority elections and the subsequent change in political complexion. In London however, a period of political stability was experienced over the period of implementation of the congestion charging scheme. The former London Mayor Ken Livingstone was elected on a manifesto which contained proposals for the introduction of a congestion charging scheme, and implementation took place early enough in the Mayor’s tenure to avoid political uncertainty about its future (Ison & Rye, 2003). A large degree of trust in local authorities by the electorate is also required, as demonstrated in Edinburgh, where regular public transport users, who stood to benefit from public transport improvements, failed to offer support to the project. Gaunt et al. (2007) assign this lack of support to a lack of trust in the City of Edinburgh City Council to deliver on the improvements promised.

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A Policy Champion With regard to the development and implementation of many new policy initiatives, the presence of a central figure is important to their acceptance (Ison, 2004). Road pricing literature identifies this to be particularly important in the implementation process. In describing the role of a policy champion, Ison and Rye (2003, p. 230) note that ‘the implementation of road user charging will involve a diverse range of stakeholders in a fragile alliance and as such a policy champion able to provide leadership and direction is all important’. In Bergen for example, where an urban road tolling scheme was introduced in 1986 as a means of providing supplementary funding for a new masterplan for the city, the director of Bergen’s branch of the Norwegian Public Roads Administration was an important catalyst. Support from both Norway’s main political parties was gained in no small part due to his natural entrepreneurship and good links with key policy makers (Ieromonachou, Potter, & Warren, 2006). Similarly, Ken Livingstone, the Mayor of London, was an essential catalyst for the introduction of the London congestion charge (Nash, 2007). The Mayor played an important role with regard to ‘selling’ the congestion charge to the people of London, and was successful in heading off criticism, which, if not dealt with by a figure of such political standing, might have provided a serious barrier to the scheme’s implementation (Ison & Rye, 2005). Trigger Mechanisms and Urban Transport Policies The role of problem recognition has already emerged as central to policy change in many cases examined throughout this review. Sometimes such awareness has been seen to develop over a period of time, as with the evolving transport and environmental research base of the 1990s, and the creeping congestion problems in London and Singapore which empowered politicians to adopt and implement what are still considered radical transport policies. In other cases, it is an unforeseen event (such as the Hatfield Rail crash or the fuel protests) which may serve to influence policy. Sometimes however, unpredictable events seemingly unrelated to transport can also serve to bring about change in the sector. This assertion can be supported by consideration of change at the local level in urban areas. Enoch, Wixey, and Ison (2004) define the introduction of a new transport policy on the back of an unrelated event as a ‘Trojan Horse’, and cite two classic examples as they build their analysis. Firstly, the imposition of the so called ‘Ring of Steel’ in the City of London in 1993 involved the restriction of vehicular access to the central core of the city, in addition to the closure

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of 17 minor roads, the conversion of 13 others to one way traffic, and the alteration of signal controls at 23 junctions to give greater priority to public transport and pedestrians (Cairns, Hass Klau, & Goodwin, 1998). These changes were not introduced as part of new transport planning approaches for the City of London. Rather, they were introduced almost overnight as a response to a terrorist bomb attack in Bishopsgate in London’s financial district in 1993. As such, acceptability barriers amongst the public and politicians were overcome, since the actions were seen to be implemented as a direct response to an event beyond government control. Secondly, the bombing of Manchester City Centre in 1996 allowed politicians to think boldly about transport issues in the city (Enoch et al., 2004). The immediate aftermath of the bombing resulted in the closure of four previously heavily trafficked roads, yet there was little discernible impact on the function of the rest of the road network. As a result, the road closures were made permanent, alongside the pedestrianisation of a number of minor surrounding roads, and limiting access on others. It can be seen then that events outside the transport policy arena can sometimes stimulate change in the policy or planning processes. In these cases, traditional barriers to change such as public acceptability, or funding, can be seen to be overtaken by the ‘need for the change’.

CONCLUSIONS AND LESSONS LEARNT The aim of this chapter has been to draw lessons from both the development of over-arching transport policies and the implementation of specific transport planning measures as instruments of policy across a geographical range of transport sectors. Overall, this review has identified and documented a range of factors which can be seen to have been influential in supporting policy change on a national, area-wide or site-specific basis in the United Kingdom. Whilst the circumstances surrounding each scenario differ, it is possible to broadly categorise the agents of change within three particular dimensions. Public and Political Identification and Acknowledgement of a Transport ‘Problem’ Which Needs Addressing In the transport sector, as perhaps in others, policies are not changed without reason. The examples cited in this review demonstrate that

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motivations for change are driven by an awareness of the need to change. Sometimes, as with the growing congestion problems in London and Singapore, recognition of the problem is a long time in gestation. Other times, critical events conspire to push a hitherto hidden or ‘less important’ policy item up the agenda and promote action. Similarly, as was the case in the national policy example, one pressing issue may emerge, such as environmental and sustainable concerns, which then dominates the agenda for a time. However, concerns over other issues, such as congestion, can be such that they overtake the incumbent issue, and in turn become the primary focus of policy attention. Conversely, as illustrated with the example of abandoned road pricing schemes, lack of problem awareness can inhibit motivations for change and ensure stability.

The Development of Policy ‘Ideas’ or Solutions Which Can Be Seen to Address Identified Problems and Which Satisfy/Overcome Traditional Implementation Barriers in the Transport Sector The review has highlighted how policy change can be influenced by the emergence of new ideas and policy approaches in related sectors. For example, the growth in the environmental movement began to impact on the transport policy debate in the early 1990s not least in questioning the principle of ‘predict and provide’ and hence changing the direction of policy on infrastructure. A number of scientific and academic reports also aided in policy re-orientation not least in providing evidence of induced transport demand as a result of infrastructure provision.

Events in the Political Arena Events in the political arena have also been demonstrated as influential in the context of policy change. Political factors leading to change can be broadly categorised as influenced on an ‘institutional’ or ‘individual’ basis, or a combination of the two. Institutionally for example, the initial merger, then restoration of the Department for Transport as a single Government Department emerged as an important factor in the move first towards new realism and subsequently retrenchment from it. In joining up related departments of transport, environment and planning, the government brokered new communication channels and opened transport policy development up to

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hitherto marginalised influences. In then breaking the department up, such influence was lost and familiar paradigms restored. Conversely, periods of long-term political control in London were identified as important in helping to deliver their flagship road pricing schemes. Individually, political policy champions, committed figures willing to invest significant time and energy to the development and implementation of their preferred policy, also emerged as having important roles in policy change processes. The role of policy champions seems particularly influential in the context of radical policy changes such as road pricing. The input of Ken Livingstone in regard to the London congestion charging scheme is an excellent case in point. To summarise, these change agents can be seen to affect both policy change and policy stability. That is, when one or more of them arise there would appear to be a greater chance for policy change or implementation than when they are not present. In instances where change agents are not present, policy stability is likely to be maintained.

Applying the Lessons to China Table 3 maps these three necessary conditions for policy change onto the set of characteristics of transport in China outlined in Wang (2010) and detailed earlier in this chapter. In the Chinese context a favourable climate for transport policy change is likely to be based on:  the high population density found in Chinese urban areas;  the increase in income and its impact on car ownership and use;  rapid urban growth. The opportunity for change is however likely to be more problematic once the structural consequences of motorisation begin to become more embedded. Economic growth and its impact on car ownership and use are likely to result in China facing transport problems which could potentially be even more serious than in the most car dependent areas of Europe and North America. As for applying lessons to the Chinese situation, Wang (2010) concludes that ‘future research on Chinese urban transport policies should pay more attention to regulatory complexity, distortionary impacts and unexpected behavioural responses, especially those rooted in the specific context of the Chinese cities’ (p. 152).

Observations in the context of China

Alternatives to car use will become rapidly less viable as time goes by Should enable effective but unpopular measures, such as road pricing, to be imposed

Issues of rising car use are worsening

Car use problem will become more dispersed and maybe less obvious Allows the government to control the agenda

Quickly rising income/ motorisation levels from a low base Rapid urban growth and structural change

Strong government relative to civil society

Should be easier to adopt walking, cycling and public transport policies Need for quite radical solutions more likely

Likely to exacerbate car-related problems

High population densities

Development of Suitable Policy Solutions

Rapidly changing circumstances make ‘events’ more likely to occur Rapidly changing circumstances make ‘events’ more likely to occur Government less vulnerable to ‘events’

Difficult to predict the effect of this

Events in the Political Arena

Conditions for Change

Applying the Lessons to China.

Problem Acknowledgement

Table 3.

Opportunities for developing a noncar based mobility future will reduce as car levels rise Opportunities for developing noncar based mobility future will reduce as car levels rise Government will be a vital element in the decision to change policy

Should push to make change more likely on balance

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Rural areas likely to be ignored for now barring significant events Difficult to predict the effect of this

Currently unlikely that events outside government control will influence transport policy, but this is likely to change over time

There is a need to take account of context

Should enable walking and cycling policies

Opportunities to reverse pro-car policy whilst strong government is in place but rapidly diminishing

Car use unlikely to be a major issue in rural areas for a while

May act to mask carrelated problems

Car-related problems will become worse at a faster rate than elsewhere in urban areas. The government largely sets the agenda

Urban–rural dichotomy

Mixed land-use composition

Implications for policy change

May mask car related problem but enable alternatives to the car

Far less likely for rural than urban areas

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It could be argued however that there are significant similarities between transport in the United Kingdom and China. As noted by Wang (2007) ‘inadequate supply of transport, unreasonable transport structure, imperfect transport market and low efficiency of the transport system are among the main causes of structural problems between China’s transportation and economic development’ (p. 5), a position not so dissimilar to that experienced in the United Kingdom.

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SECTION 3 TRAFFIC AND PASSENGER TRANSPORT

CHAPTER 9 A 5D LAND-USE TRANSPORT MODEL FOR A HIGH DENSITY, RAPIDLY GROWING CITY Haixiao PAN ABSTRACT Purpose – The objective of this chapter is to draw the attention of policy makers in the fields of urban planning and transport in China to the importance of developing more balanced multi-modal transport systems and the corresponding land-use patterns to support transport systems, particularly walking and cycling in order to address the issues arising from the dense, highly mixed land-use pattern in many Chinese cities. This will help to reverse current planning practices which give car-oriented development top priority and less consideration of walking and cycling. Methodology – Statistical methods have been applied to analyse modal split in some cities in Japan, Beijing and Shanghai using travel surveys, plus analysis of the experience of policies in various cities around the world, especially in terms of the relationship between the modal shares for public transport and car. Door-to-door travel times have been analysed for Shanghai to understand the potential of cycle or e-bicycle in a dense urban environment. Findings – The change in travel modal split in Beijing in recent years suggests that simply encouraging public transport cannot control use of Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 195–210 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003011

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car. The data from Japan also shows that normal bus services cannot compete with the car, but it is clear that people will travel less by car if there is a high non-motorized share in the city. Because of the low density of the metro network, the door-to-door travel speed by metro is not as fast as is often imagined, due to the long off-metro time. The people who use metro are often not the people who live very close to metro stations, but some distance away, so improving the connection to the station by cycle or e-bicycle could greatly reduce the total travel time by metro. Research limitations and implications – More analyses should be conducted in medium-size and small-size cities in China, where the local capacity is low and there is great potential to travel by walking and cycling, but only after clear guidance and policy instruments have been provided by higher authorities. Practical and social implications – There is still a relatively high share of non-motorized travel in China. Many cities still have extensive cycle infrastructure established under the State Code of Urban Road Transport Planning issued in 1995. Encouraging non-motorized transport systems is not only possible, but also good for the environment, and contributes to travel efficiency and social inclusion. Originality – This chapter is the summary of several original research studies using primary survey data, encouraging public transport in China. This is the first research to show the great potential of non-motorized mode for controlling car use and improving urban mobility in China. It is also the first chapter to point out the integration of multi-modal transport systems with the corresponding built environment in China. Keywords: TOD; urban transportation and land use; green transportation; sustainable development; low-carbon city

INTRODUCTION Understanding of the impact of urban transport on urban construction, environmental quality and the quality of life is outside the experience of most urban planners in China. In the last two decades, in order to improve urban transport, large-scale urban transport construction has been taking place in many Chinese cities, especially heavy investment in ring roads and

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urban expressways, for example the ring road system in Beijing and the elevated expressway in Shanghai. But the challenges of rapidly growing motorization, lack of fossil oil and space to accommodate cars within the relatively high density urban fabric still need to be addressed. In response to climate change and global warming, low-carbon city construction has become a key issue of concern in urban planning in China: more than 259 cities in China have declared an intention of pursuing the vision of building a low-carbon eco-city (CSUS, 2011). Methods of effectively controlling cities’ carbon dioxide emissions from urban transport while improving mobility has received great attention up until very recently. Up to the early 1990s, the construction of urban transport lagged behind economic development and population growth with very low levels of urban road capacity, specifically the lack of high-grade urban roads, such as urban expressways or arterial roads: urban planners were convinced of the need for large-scale and high-intensity urban road construction to accommodate motorization under the central government car industry promotion policy issued in 1994, leading to higher grades of road, more driving lanes and more capacity for motor vehicles. Therefore, it was believed that the key solution was to construct more urban expressways. But in Shanghai, as in many other cities in China, the construction of elevated motorways, urban cross motorways and a ‘three vertical and three horizontal’ expressway did not relieve traffic congestion effectively. The experience of serious traffic congestion shows that it is very difficult to improve urban mobility by accommodating increasing motorization using an ‘increased road space solution’; this is counter to the original intention of increasing the range of opportunities that people can reach within a short time, with road congestion reducing urban competitiveness. This experience shows that, because of the lock-in effect of land use and transport, once the establishment of urban spatial structure has become very dependent on the car, it is very hard to control the growth of carbon dioxide emissions in the urban transport sector, as people have to travel by car. Car dependent cities inevitably lead to low-density urban sprawl, creating a vicious cycle emitting more CO2 which will destroy the balance of the biosphere and will be a serious threat to the survival of human beings in the future, if less developed countries follow the model of motorized industrial countries. A higher density development model supported by multi-modal green transport systems will make Chinese cities less dependent on the car; then carbon dioxide emissions from the urban transport sector can be reduced, which can also help to reduce urban transport pollution, which, together with building a high quality and livable urban environment, means

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that low-carbon city construction will achieve a win–win situation for both the global ecological environment and the local urban environment. The 2010 Shanghai World Expo received more than 70 million visitors in six months in an area which had had poor transport provision previously. Due to the effective control of the car and the encouragement of public transport in the planning and management of the event, there was no serious impact on Shanghai’s normal urban transport during the six-month period (Zhu, Shao, Chen, & Li, 2011). This experience shows that the establishment of an alternative competitive transportation system can effectively restrain car traffic; in other words, car traffic demand is highly compressible. Now in many cities the urban construction focus is shifting from the city centre to the suburbs, addressing the issue of fast motorization, establishing integrated green low-carbon transport and an urban spatial structure which will have a long-term positive impact on urban sustainable development.

THE 5D LAND-USE TRANSPORT MODEL The urban transport problems that are being faced today, such as the rapid growth of motorized vehicles, traffic jams, and especially the growth in carbon dioxide emissions by the urban transport sector, are, to some extent, the result of the methods of urban planning, construction and management which have favoured the car. The construction model of wide roads, huge neighbourhood blocks and the delay in the provision of high-quality urban public transport have meant that people have relied on the car for their travel as they became wealthier as a result of economic development. In order to suppress the growth of car traffic effectively, the development of public transport has been advocated, supported by the reform of legislation, investment and technological improvement (Zhao & Jiang, 1999). It is further supported by the changes to travel demand and distribution effected by urban spatial structure and land-use density. The TOD model (Calthorpe, 1994), that is, the transit-oriented urban development model has received a high level of recognition in urban transport and urban planning in China. People had high expectations of the solution of urban traffic problems through the TOD model. Nowadays, construction of metros is seen as the key for all transport-related problems. In a rapidly developing city, there are characteristics of symbiosis and interaction between transportation system development, transport demand growth and urban land use, as well as spatial restructuring. Urban transport problems may be due to the provision and management of the transport

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system or they may stem from defects in land-use planning control, such as land-use segregation and mismatches in the land-use density and transport system. Many Japanese cities have very successful public transport systems because of the development of rail transport, but this has had an adverse effect on land use, which has resulted in tidal travel, with people having to travel very long distances. In some cities in South America, because of the level of economic development and the pattern of urban development, bus rapid transit (BRT) solutions have been proposed with great success. London has introduced the congestion charge scheme successfully (see Chapter 10, Roger’s chapter about congestion charge), and the bicycle rental system in Paris has been widely accepted. These are some of the strategies used around the world to improve urban transport by using travel demand management and public transport priority, etc. But there is no standard solution that suits every city. Each city needs to find its own distinct path to achieve its objectives in promoting a green urban transport system. In China, because of land-use controls, the population density is still very high: there are around four million people living in the first ring of Shanghai with an area of 110 sq. km. Based on the characteristics of high density and mixed land use in Chinese cities, a 5D urban transport and land-use development model should be adopted instead of just ‘TOD’; that is ‘PODWBODWTODWXODWCOD’ where POD is pedestrian-oriented development, B stands for bicycle, T is transit, X stands for Xingxiang which means urban image and also implies use of a paratransit system and C stands for car. Priority should be given to pedestrians and bicycles even over transit, emphasizing the integration of multi-modal transport with the corresponding land-use control to give people greater access at low cost to various activity centres using green transport: car should be the last concern in planning. But unfortunately, in reality, car traffic or car-oriented development (COD) is always given top priority over every other mode of transport. The current planning practice in China must be reversed.

PEOPLE-CENTRIC URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS The TOD model mentioned above is currently a hot topic in urban planning in China. However, rather than adopting the mass-transit-oriented development model, preference should be given to POD, which means that, above all, urban construction and urban transport improvements should reflect the people-oriented principle, in order to achieve the goal of human development, to improve the quality of life and to give people a healthy

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living environment. Both the current needs of people and the development of future generations should be considered. The impact of traffic pollution on children is a very serious issue (Guo et al., 2009). Because of traffic safety concerns, children are losing the ability to explore their surrounding environments independently: independence is a necessary psychological factor in encouraging creative activities for them, and to ensure the creation of talent in the future. In addition, in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, in general, there will need to be a reduction in local traffic pollution: a healthy city needs an environment with environment. The construction of urban transport requires a large volume of public resources. It is important to ensure that the different social classes and disabled people all benefit from mobility improvements, rather than increasing social differentiation, which will result in the further marginalization of certain social groups. There will always be different income or society groups in a city, so public resources invested in the construction of transportation systems need to take account of ways of improving travel for disadvantaged groups. Since travel is part of everyone’s life, full account must be taken of people’s experience in the course of travel, rather than them just being seen as items to be transported to various parts of the city. There needs to be transparent information so that travel processes are fully understood: travel initiatives need to be pursued explicitly, rather than being treated as a black box. Public transport will then be the mode of choice. In China, urban traffic information systems are currently focused mainly on the driver to facilitate easier driving. In the short term, this technology can reduce traffic jams, but in the long term these efforts will encourage people to buy and use cars particularly in the conditions of low car ownership in China. Everybody needs access to travel information systems so that they can easily find routes, sites, transfers, and so on for their travel.

PEDESTRIAN-ORIENTED AND BICYCLE-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT POD means adopting a pedestrian-oriented model. The city was originally a place where people could walk easily. Walking is a basic human skill. Walking is also important for the maintenance of good health. But walking in the city is becoming increasingly difficult nowadays in China, with people losing the basic skills of walking: in the long run this will seriously affect the

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physical health of urban residents. The city is becoming more aged: improving the city’s pedestrian environment will enable more elderly people to participate in outdoor activities, which will help to maintain their physical health. Independent living in the city for senior citizens is of great significance, as the one-child policy and the increasingly intense pace of work will make it very difficult for older people to rely on their children; they must be as independent as possible with healthy lifestyles. But, the policy of putting car traffic first has limited the space where they can walk. Urban construction and traffic management must take into account the walking environment for elderly people. The design of a small block pedestrian network will help improve the continuity of local roads. In the city centre, design and management should control the speed of cars. The pedestrian transformation project in Times Square in New York has greatly improved the area’s environmental quality and traffic. In the Xujiahui area, one of the sub-centres in Shanghai, the serious traffic congestion and conflicts have severely affected the region’s environmental quality and commercial competitiveness (Fig. 1). There is still very widespread use of cycles in many cities of China, and cycle transport infrastructure is relatively sound. In Shanghai, a survey shows that the modal split for bicycle or e-bicycle was 28.7% in 2009 (SURCTC, 2010). However, there has been controversy about bicycle transport: it is assumed that the bicycle is an outdated form of transport, or that the bicycle is only suitable for short-distance travel and so on. But in Paris with its dense rail network, the promotion of the bicycle rental system has been generally welcomed. Long or short distance is a relative concept, not an absolute one. If the average travel distance is compared with the range of 4–6 km for bicycle or e-bicycle, it can be found that quite a high percentage of people travel within this range. In urban centres, travel distances tend to be short, even if there is a convenient metro system: travellers have to go to the station to take the metro and wait for the arrival of the metro, so the time efficiency is not as high as expected (Fig. 2). A survey in Shanghai shows that within the inner ring, the average door-todoor speed by metro is only around 12 km/hour (Pan, Shen, & Xue, 2010). New York City is currently working to promote a new city-wide bicycle system: bicycle use among New Yorkers is growing much faster than expected. New York City is planning to double the number of bicycle commuters by the end of 2012. As a way of encouraging more bicycle use, many U.S. cities have subscribed to the road diet plan of reducing the width of motor vehicle lanes, leaving more room for bicycle traffic. In Seattle, one of the more environmentally friendly U.S. cities, there are 17 road diet projects.

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Fig. 1.

Traffic in Shanghai’s Xujiahui Area.

Compared with public transport, cycling does not require much in the way of government financial support. Not only is riding a bicycle helpful for keeping the environment clean, it is also good physical exercise, which can contribute to reducing the government’s health care burden. Cycling could become more popular in China, but because of traffic safety concerns and fear of theft, some people are unlikely to use a bicycle. A solution which could be extended to all Chinese cities is the type of public bicycle system in the Minhang district of Shanghai. They have effectively solved the ‘last mile problem’ connecting cyclists to metro stations without the worry of having their bicycles stolen. Cycling is now much more popular in the Minhang

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Fig. 2.

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Door-to-Door Speed by Metro in Shanghai. Note: Trip O, Trip Origin; Trip D, Trip Destination.

district (Pan, Tang, Mai, & Mu, 2010). The use of bicycles should be vigorously promoted in high-density downtown areas. The provision of a bicycle network is not sufficient to encourage people to use bicycles: attention needs to be paid in urban planning to the mixture of land uses, small street blocks and the functions of the areas along the bicycle network. Then, people will find it is easy to access service facilities while they ride their bicycles and to reach employment centres. Bicycle rental systems connected with the metro can greatly expand the service catchment area of the backbone of public transport in a city. In addition, in the urban centres, if people can choose to travel by bicycle, there will be more room left for long distance metro passengers who would be more likely to shift to car travel, because they cannot manage overcrowded trains for long distances. It is quite a common belief that encouraging public transport will greatly reduce car dependence. But the modal split in Beijing shows that even with an increasing public transport share, the use of private car increased very rapidly, all at the expense of non-motorized travel (Fig. 3). Statistics from a travel survey (MLIT, n.d.) in Japanese cities also show that there is not a simple relationship between the modal split of normal

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Fig. 3. Modal Split in Beijing. Source: Beijing Urban Transport Research Centre (n.d.).

public transport and private car: only urban rail can compete with the private car. Only with a high share of non-motorized travel are fewer people found travelling by car in a city (Fig. 4).

TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT The third level is the TOD model, with urban land-use planning and development encouraging the use of public transport. Here the emphasis should be on the coupling of urban spatial structure with a mass transit system, that is, all levels of public activity centres with hubs or interchanges forming the backbone of the public transport system, including the transit system, so that it is conducive to the formation of an urban spatial structure supported by the public transportation system (Fig. 5). Then the mutual support and positive interaction between land use and transport will be realized (Pan & Ren, 2005). Currently, local government has ambitions to expand the metro networks in Beijing and Shanghai, where 1,000 km of metro network has been planned. But under the policy of giving public transport priority, the financial burden must be taken into account in the long term. With the

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Fig. 4. The Relationship of Modal Split between Car and Non-Motorized Mode in Japan. Data Source: Retrieved from http://www.mlit.go.jp/crd/tosiko/pt/PT_eng.xls.

increase in the length of the rail network, the number of passengers on each kilometre of the network declines following the law of diminishing effect, especially in outlying areas of the city, where the establishment of highquality bus services may be a more rational solution with seamless transfer to the metro system to reach the central city, producing more balance and flexibility between the burden on public finances and the provision of highquality public transport services (Fig. 6). In current planning practice, TOD usually means land-use development around metro stations within a radius of 500 metres. Based on this principle, there is a dilemma in the periphery area. First, in order to improve metro services in the area, the metro network density or the length of transit has to be increased, which will undoubtedly increase the government’s financial burden, resulting in economically unsustainable development. Another problem is that if the network density in outlying areas is not increased, the people living 500 metres away from a metro station are more likely to choose individual motorized mode as their economic conditions improve, which will contribute to urban traffic congestion (Fig. 7).

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Fig. 5.

Metro Station and Activity Centres. Source: Pan and Ren (2005).

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Metro Network Size and Passenger in Beijing. Source: Pan (2008).

Fig. 7.

Commuting by Metro by Distance to the Metro Station.

Currently, because of the low level of control on the floor space area and garages of apartments located within 500 metres of metro stations, richer people are more successful in the bidding competition for the apartments,

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but they may not use the metro very often. The survey shows that people living further from metro station are more likely to choose metro. Since the people who depend more on the metro are not those who live within a 500metre radius of metro stations, not only the design of the pedestrian environment, but also the transport connections to the metro station in the periphery are very important. Bicycle is the most effective mode of transport for this connection.

URBAN IMAGE IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS AND COD ‘X’ always refers to an unknown variable in mathematical calculations. In cities it is sometimes difficult to implement urban construction in some projects, so ‘XOD’ is defined to represent this, particularly visual image projects with a tall building located to create a beautiful skyline, usually associated with car dependent development. If a city’s image projects can be combined with walking, cycling and public transport improvement, then they can be positive for a low-carbon city. In particular, for public facilities and government construction projects, the first consideration should be how people can use green transport to reach them. The construction of these projects should adhere to the principle of public transport priority: any large-scale construction must be controlled until adequate public transport services can be provided. The location chosen will have a decisive influence on the use of green transport later. The height and floor area ratios of the buildings will not only determine the image and the landscape design, but should also take into account the level of public transport accessibility. Large-scale developments in areas with low levels of public transport provision will lead to more car use, which will conflict with the objective of a low-carbon city. Although, in general, excessive use of cars should be discouraged, in some cases, one must rely on the car. The intention of building a totally car free city is almost impossible to achieve. The key concern is how to use the car more efficiently through city planning, management and community action in order to avoid its unnecessary use. The Shanghai motor vehicle plate auction significantly delayed rapid motorization compared with Beijing. Making good use of a time window buffer to delay motorization is worth exploring. As soon as they have a license, people can use it for the whole of their lives, which is why current policy has only delayed the process of motorization. It can be expected that Shanghai will catch up with Beijing in

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motorization in a few years time if a consistent policy to disadvantage car use is not adopted. Therefore, Shanghai must adopt more effective policies to make best use of the car and increase the cost of car use to influence people’s car use behaviour.

CONCLUSION The 5D model has been advocated here: it does not mean that walking and cycling are the only choices for urban transport, but walking should be given top priority. There needs to be a sequence of priority in land use and transport planning: backing only the walking city is unrealistic. Land use should be integrated with multi-modal transport as a whole. Unfortunately, COD is always given top priority in new developments in urban planning in many cities in China. The order of priority in the development process should be reversed. More generally, the urban transport system needs to be studied at various scales, taking account of urban land use and development characteristics, as well as management capacity, in order to realize multi-dimensional development. It is to be hoped that urban transport will emphasize the mobility of people with less environmental impact and a lower burden on public finances, instead of considering only the capacity of any single mode of transport. The use of 5D models, not just the TOD model, will improve environmental quality and the mobility of people.

REFERENCES Calthorpe, P. (1994). The next American metropolis: Ecology, community, and the American dream. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Architectural Press. CSUS. (2011). China urban planning development report (2010–2011). Chinese society for urban studies. Beijing: China Construction Press. (In Chinese). Guo, L. L., Zhang, Z. H., Dong, J., Mu, J. F., Zhang, Z. R., Guo, L. Y., y Ren, Y. (2009). Impact of different traffic crossroads exhaust pollution on immune function of the school age children in Taiyuan city. Journal of Hygiene Research, 579–581. (In Chinese). MLIT. (n.d.). Cities conducted the person trip survey (PT) – Japan. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan. Retrieved from http://www.mlit.go.jp/crd/ tosiko/pt/PT_eng.xls Pan, H. X. (2008). Urban rail and sustainable development. Urban Transport of China, 2008(4), 35–39. Pan, H. X., & Ren, C. Y. (2005). The coupling of metro station with urban activity centre system: A Shanghai case study. Urban Planning Forum, 4, 76–82. (In Chinese).

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Pan, H.X., Shen, Q., & Xue, S. (2010). Intermodal transfer between bicycles and rail transit in Shanghai, China. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2144, 181–188. Pan, H. X., Tang, Y., Mai, X. M., & Mu, Y. J. (2010). Three public bicycle model in China. Urban Transport of China, 6. (In Chinese). Shanghai Urban and Rural Construction, Transport Commission (SURCTC). (2010). The fourth Shanghai transport survey, 2010. Shanghai. (In Chinese). Zhao, B. P., & Jiang, B. L. (1999). Public transport priority strategy and practice. Urban Rail Transport Studies, 3, 1–4. Zhu, H., Shao, D., Chen, H., & Li, Q. H. (2011). Mass transit service in world expo Shanghai 2010. Urban Transport of China, 9(4), 76–84.

CHAPTER 10 REDUCING CAR USE IN URBAN AREAS Roger L. MACKETT ABSTRACT Purpose – In this chapter, issues involved in trying to reduce car use in urban areas are examined, drawing on experience in Britain, and the possible lessons for China are considered. Methodology – The advantages and disadvantages of the car are considered to explain the growth in car use in Britain. The political difficulties of reducing urban car use are discussed. A variety of methods of reducing car use by changing travel behaviour are described, including charging for the use of the road, fuel pricing, control of car parking and alternative methods of accessing the car such as car clubs and car sharing. The evidence on the effectiveness of measures to reduce car use is examined. The potential for reducing car use in China is then considered. Findings – Most of the initiatives for reducing car use in Britain have focused on reducing congestion rather than actually reducing car use. The largest initiative to do this has been the London Congestion Charging scheme; this was successful, unlike proposals for some other cities, for a variety of reasons. However, while there have been many initiatives in Britain, there is little systematic evidence of their effectiveness.

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Practical implications – The chapter discusses some of the political difficulties involved in trying to reduce car use and then illustrates these, particularly for congestion charging using the example of London. Value of the chapter – The main value of this chapter is to illustrate the range of possible approaches to reducing car use, drawing upon evidence from various cities showing some of the ways of overcoming the barriers to implementation. Keywords: Cars; urban; China; congestion charging; London

INTRODUCTION Car use in Britain has grown significantly over the past sixty years, bringing mobility to those who own cars but also many problems for society such as environmental damage and congestion. This chapter explores why car use has grown in Britain, the political difficulties of trying to reduce it, particularly in urban areas, and the effectiveness of various measures to do so. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the lessons for China from the experience in Britain on ways of attempting to reduce car use in urban areas.

CAR USE IN BRITAIN Over the past sixty years car use has grown significantly in Great Britain as Fig. 1 shows. In 1952 there were 58 billion passenger kilometres travelled by cars, vans and taxis in Britain. By 2007 this had grown to 685 billion, nearly 12 times as many as in 1952, an average annual growth rate of 4.6%. There does seem to have been a slowing down in the growth in recent years. Whether this is due to capacity constraints on the road network, the effects of policy or the approach to saturation is not clear. The problems are particularly severe in urban areas where congestion causes significant delays. Even if car use growth has levelled off in Great Britain, it is clear that it has grown significantly over the past half century. Before considering ways of reducing it, it is important to understand why it has grown.

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Billion passenger kilometres

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Fig. 1.

Passenger Travel by Cars, Vans and Taxis in Great Britain. Source: Department for Transport (2011).

WHY HAS CAR USE GROWN IN BRITAIN? The car offers several advantages to the user over the alternatives modes of walk, bicycle, bus, coach and train. The key advantages it has are:      

Door-to-door travel; Flexible timing; Relatively low travel times; Low marginal cost of trips; Comfort; Indicator of social status.

These advantages, taken together, mean that the car offers the most convenient and comfortable form of travel while being cheaper (in marginal terms, at least) and quicker than other modes for most trips. Cars open up the opportunity to reach a range of destinations that are simply not possible by other modes. They also make it easy to carry heavy goods, such as shopping and sports equipment, and allow parents to keep their children under surveillance (Mackett, 2003). Cars have enabled many people to move away from their family and friends, for work, financial or other reasons, but to remain in regular physical contact. These factors explain why, as people become wealthier, they use their income to purchase mobility through car ownership. As life becomes more

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complex, with more women in employment, often part-time in the case of mothers with childcare responsibilities, the perceived need for one or more cars is recognised by households. The motor industry also provides employment in the form of manufacturing and servicing of vehicles, plus a variety of ancillary services including petrol stations and car parks, which also provide employment and are an integral part of the national economy. Against these benefits must be set the disbenefits. These include:  Use of resources, including fossil fuels, either directly or by conversion to electricity, and land;  Pollution including tailpipe emissions, noise and visual intrusion;  Carbon dioxide emissions which affect climate change;  Congestion which leads to unreliability of journeys and excessive travel times;  Casualties;  Social inequity: alternatives need to be provided for those without access to a car;  Decentralisation of urban areas: the growth in car ownership has enabled the providers of employment, retailing and leisure facilities to locate on sites further from the centre of cities, where land is often cheaper and larger sites available; often such locations can only be reached conveniently by car, which has probably fuelled the demand for cars; this has led to urban sprawl with valuable agricultural land being used for residential, retailing and employment activities. Many households in Britain have adopted car-oriented lifestyles which mean that they need to use the car to reach all their key destinations. This makes any attempt to reduce car use very difficult (Mackett, 2009). Cars bring a range of benefits and disbenefits: most of the benefits are direct and accrue to the individuals who choose to purchase them whilst most of the disbenefits occur indirectly to members of society.

THE POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES OF REDUCING URBAN CAR USE For many years the main method for controlling the number of cars in urban areas in Britain was parking controls. In the late 1950s, road

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congestion began to be a problem in London (Kay & Evans, 1992). Parking restrictions were seen to be the answer. In 1956 powers were obtained for parking meters, with the first coming into use in London in 1958. However, there was a problem: whilst local authorities could control the number of parking spaces provided on-street and off-street, they could not control the number of private spaces. Legislation in the 1960s had required developers to provide parking spaces in all new developments, in an attempt to reduce on-street parking. The unfortunate consequence of this was that local authorities had no control over much of the parking in their areas. In fact, they did not even know how much was in private hands, and so did not know the total number of parking spaces in their area. This made it difficult to control levels of car use in cities which is where many of the problems with cars exist. The benefits of car use discussed above make it very difficult to implement any policies that car users believe is restricting the use of the car or costing them money for facilities that they perceive as having previously received free, such as roads. In Britain, car users accept that they need to pay to buy their vehicles, and need to insure them. They pay an annual tax on car ownership and duty on fuel. These latter costs seem to be accepted because they have existed almost as long as cars have. The licensing of cars was introduced in Britain 1903 to help identify vehicles (Driving Vehicle & Licensing Agency, 2006). A tax was first levied on fuel under the Finance Act 1908, and has been increased by successive governments as a means of raising revenue (Department for Transport, 2004). Whilst there seems to be general acceptance of paying the taxes associated with motoring, when large increases are proposed, for example in fuel duty, the motoring lobby may protest. This was seen in 2000 when the proposed increase in the duty led to demonstrations and blockades by the haulage industry. This discussion illustrates the complexity of the issue: the government knows that car use is high, and that reduction would help address the problems of caused by the car such as congestion, atmospheric pollution and CO2 emissions, but the benefits of the car to the user make this politically difficult. Successive British governments have been reluctant to take any actions that they believe that the public will perceive as antimotorist. This is complicated by other pressures such as the need to reduce greenhouse emissions as required under the Kyoto treaty. This dilemma is illustrated by the actions of the Labour Government that came to power in 1997. The Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, chose to

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be in charge of the environment including transport and the functions of planning, housing and the regions. He made it very clear that he intended to reduce car use. In June 1998 he said: ‘I will have failed if in five years’ time there are not y far fewer journeys by car. It’s a tall order but I urge you to hold me to it’ (Hansard, 1998). There were in practice more car journeys in 2003 than there were in 1998 (Department for Transport, 2011). The transport policies of the Government elected in 1997 were spelt out in the White Paper ‘A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone’ (Department for Transport, 1998). As illustrated by the quote from John Prescott above, reducing car use was the Government’s intention, but it was not politically expedient to be explicit. Instead the document focused on ‘integrated transport’, by which it meant, amongst other things, improving interchange between public transport modes so that they could compete more successfully with the car. The arguments for reducing car use were focused on specific objectives such as encouraging healthy lifestyles and reducing pollution. A key aim of the White Paper was to change travel habits, in particular to reduce the habit of using the car. Two key policies were proposed: charging motorists for use of the road and a parking levy. It was proposed that local authorities would be able to charge road users to reduce congestion and that trials for charging users would be carried out on national motorways and trunk roads. A key point about the congestion charge was to be that local authorities could keep the revenue for investment in transport (hence it was a ‘charge’ rather than a ‘tax’). Parking levies could be imposed by local authorities on employers, who would apply for a licence to allow a certain number of vehicles to be parked on their site. The employer could either pass the levy on to its employees as a parking charge or absorb the cost. Either way, it would force an employer to consider seriously how many parking spaces to provide. It was also suggested that parking levies could be introduced at other developments such as retail and leisure centres, but this was not a specific proposal. Another concept that was proposed in the 1998 Transport White Paper was green transport plans which are statements of measures to encourage members of an organisation to use alternatives to the car, produced by organisations such as employers and schools. These are usually called travel plans now. It is clear that awareness of the need to control the use of the car, particularly in urban areas, is not new. In the next section, the implementation of some of the policies will be discussed.

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METHODS OF REDUCING CAR USE In this section some of the thinking about reducing car use in Britain will be discussed.

Changing Travel Behaviour The present British Government is keen to encourage behaviour change as a way of addressing some policy issues, reflecting the fact that humans do not always behave in ways that might be expected if they behaved rationally. This is based on consideration of explicit attempts at behaviour change that have been used in health studies to curb unhealthy behaviour such as smoking and heavy drinking (Butland et al., 2007). The Government has looked at ways of applying behavioural insight to health (Behavioural Insights Team, 2010). Two of the examples cited in the report are meant to encourage modal shift. One is the Step2Get initiative by Transport for London and Intelligent Health to incentivise children to walk to school by using swipe card technology, online gaming and rewards which have increased walking to school by 18%. The second example is the introduction of bicycle hire schemes in major cities such as the one in London. It seems that bicycle retailers have reported significant increases in bicycle sales since the London scheme started. This might also be due to the opportunity to try a bicycle at a low price without large financial commitment. Neither of these examples has been subjected to rigorous evaluation to establish its cost effectiveness but, as discussed below, according to Aldworth (2011) the bicycle hire scheme does not cover its costs. Various instruments to help bring about travel behaviour change will be discussed below.

Control of Car Parking The difficulties experienced in British cities in using parking restrictions to control car use in urban areas were discussed above. The first workplace parking levy scheme has been introduced in Nottingham with a levy charged on all employers who provide more than 10 parking spaces from 1 April 2012 (Nottingham City Council, 2011).

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Charging for the Use of the Road The origin of the idea of charging for the use of roads in Britain is usually seen as coming from the Smeed Report ‘Road pricing: The economic and technical possibilities’ published in 1964 (Ministry of Transport, 1964), based on ideas by Alan Walters (1961). A trial was conducted in Cambridge, by Cambridgeshire County Council, but the Council did not have the legal powers to implement a scheme and political and public opposition prevented it from going ahead (Ison, 1996). The first congestion scheme implemented in Britain was a small one introduced in Durham on 1 October 2002 (Santos, 2004). The monitoring report (Durham County Council, 2003) found an 85% reduction in vehicular traffic and a 10% increase in pedestrian activity as a result of the scheme. The scheme reduced the traffic more than expected which meant that the revenue coming in did not cover the cost of its operation and that of the accessible minibus service in the area, but the shortfall was covered by revenues from parking charges. The other implemented congestion charging scheme in Britain is in London. The scheme started on 17 February 2003 (Santos, 2004). There had been discussions about the possibility of such a scheme over a number of years. The scheme was part of the election strategy of Ken Livingstone, the first Mayor of London, elected in May 2000. The scheme involves a charge of d10 a day (originally d5 then d8) for being within the charging cordon in the period from 7.00 to 18.00 on weekdays. It can be paid the day after the one on which the charge was incurred at a cost of d12. If this is not paid there is a penalty charge. Residents of the area receive a large discount. The following are exempt: buses, licensed taxis and minicabs, emergency service vehicles, certain military vehicles, some alternatively fuelled vehicles, bicycles and powered two wheelers. The scheme works by using cameras to read car registration plates automatically and comparing these with a list of those for which the charge has been paid. Penalty notices are sent out to those who are found not to have paid. The scheme brought about a larger decrease in traffic than was predicted so the revenue was lower than that projected (Murray-Clark, 2003; Santos & Shaffer, 2004). The congestion charging area was extended to the west on 19 February 2007. In May 2008 Boris Johnson was elected Mayor of London in place of Ken Livingstone. This led to a review of the transport policies in London which led to the removal of the Western Extension to the congestion charge area on 4 January 2011 after a period of consultation.

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According to Transport for London [TfL] (2008), the number of vehicles entering central London in 2007 was 16% lower than in 2002, and the number of cars, minicabs and lorries fell by 29% in the same period. The number of buses entering London increased by 33% and the number of people using them during morning peak hours rose from 87,000 to 113,000. d137m was raised from the congestion charge, in the financial year 2007/ 2008, for investment into improving transport in London. It has now been found that congestion has risen back to pre-charging levels but, according to TfL, it would be much worse without the charge (TfL, 2008). TfL says that the rise in congestion was due to widespread water and gas main replacement works, which greatly reduced the road capacity, and traffic management measures put in to help pedestrians and other road users. It is interesting to consider why it was possible to implement congestion charging in London when, as discussed above, it is politically difficult to introduced a system in which motorists are charged for something they have not paid to use previously. Pearce (2009) investigated how the proposal was implemented. His interviews with the key players showed that there were a number of favourable factors at the time, for example, the public debate about transport associated with the 1998 White Paper, public perception of congestion on the streets of London, the new structure of local government in London and the research that had already been carried out. There were a number of aspects of the scheme that helped to make it successful: exemptions from the charges for taxis since taxi drivers could have provided considerable opposition; the decision to introduce a variety of payment methods, none of which caused any disruption to the flow of traffic; the use of technology that was known to work; and a major investment in buses prior to the implementation of the scheme. Schemes have been developed for congestion charging in two other cities in Britain – Edinburgh and Manchester. The scheme in Edinburgh was to have used similar technology to that in London, but with two cordons (Rye, Gaunt, & Ison, 2008). The proposal was put to a referendum in February 2005, when the proposal was rejected by the electorate and subsequently abandoned. Rye et al. (2008) have identified a number of reasons for the rejection, including opposition from the local press, and the complexity of the institutional context of the scheme which meant that there was not a single institution responsible for implementing the scheme (and hence no strong ‘champion’ for the scheme). There seemed to be confusion about the objectives of the scheme, with the two cordons making the scheme seem rather complex. The proposed scheme in Manchester suffered a similar fate, being rejected in a referendum in December 2008. The scheme was fairly

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similar to that in London, but there would have been two cordons, with charges imposed only during the peak times. It is worth considering the factors that made the London scheme successful. It seems to be possible to convince motorists about measures if they are aware of the problems (e.g. congestion) and they receive something in return (e.g. faster trips). It seems to be better to avoid a referendum before implementation because, as shown in Edinburgh and Manchester this is likely to fail. It would be better to follow the example of Stockholm where the referendum was held after the system had been trialled for seven months and then removed (Eliasson & Jonsson, 2011). There needs to be a strong champion who is able to ensure there is support across the political spectrum and able to build alliances with possible opponents such as taxi drivers. It needs to be a simple scheme: it can be made more complex, for example, with charges varying by time of day or congestion levels, once it has been implemented and seen as effective by the population.

Fuel Pricing Increasing taxation on vehicle fuel is politically difficult even though evidence on the effects of fuel prices and other motoring costs on car travel has shown that a 10% increase in fuel price caused a 1.5% reduction in traffic volume in the first year building up to about 3% over a 5–10 year period (Goodwin, Dargay, & Hanly, 2004). The increase in effect over time showed that it takes several years for the behavioural adjustment produced by the price rise to take place because of the effects of inertia and habit. However, as Fig. 1 shows, there was no long-term decrease in the trend in car use after the major increase in fuel prices in 1974. This was partly due to the effects of the fuel price increases on the rate of inflation which affected the whole economy and eroded the price increase in fuel. There are many complexities involved in working out the effects of fuel prices on trips because of the influence of the nature of the trips, driving styles and choice of vehicles. Cars have become more efficient over time, and the growth in electric and hybrid vehicles has reduced sensitivity to increases in fuel price.

Soft Travel Measures In Britain there is now a lot of interest in soft travel measures. These are largely aimed at changing travel behaviour by a variety of means. The

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methods proposed include (Department for Transport, 2010a; Institute of Highways and Transportation, n.d.):  Travel plans (workplace travel plans, school travel plans, personalised travel plans, developer travel plans, residential travel plans, hospital/ health travel plans, station travel plans, construction worker travel plans);  Car sharing;  Teleworking;  Teleconferencing and video conferencing;  Car clubs;  Home shopping;  Public transport information and marketing;  Travel awareness campaigns;  Delivery and service plans. Travel plans are packages of some of the other methods, sometimes linked to other measures such as reducing the number of car parking spaces. Travel plans have evolved over the past twenty years from policy statements issued by individual organisations, becoming rather more formalised as they have been recognised by the Department for Transport as an instrument of travel planning. Many of these concepts have been in use for many years, but only relatively recently have they been packaged under the heading of ‘smarter choices’. Many of them are low cost and may be regarded as examples of good practice. However, it is not clear how effective they are. Cairns et al. (2008) have reviewed the literature to examine the impacts of soft travel measures on car use. They concluded that most travel plans achieve cuts of up to 35% in car use at the most successful sites, with an average reduction produced by workplace travel plans of about 18%. Chatterjee (2009) has reviewed large-scale residential personal travel planning projects and found a consistent reduction in car driver trips of 11%. However, most of the schemes have not been subjected to systematic evaluation of their cost-effectiveness. Bonsall (2009) has questioned the reliability of the results of personal travel planning and argued that there may be systematic bias in the methods used. The UK Department for Transport is interested in such initiatives, and has funded several schemes. One of the largest and most recent is the ‘Sustainable Travel Towns’ in which the three towns of Darlington, Peterborough and Worcester have implemented packages of ‘smarter choices’ (Department for Transport, 2010b). It is claimed that for the three towns together, from 2004 to 2008, there was a reduction of 9% in car driver

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trips and a reduction of 5% in car driver distance. Most of the reduction came from mode shift, but a small amount came from a net reduction in the number of trips. It was found that behaviour change was greatest amongst college students and people looking for work and least amongst those in employment. However, it is not clear how robust the findings are because the study was commissioned before the Department of Transport had completed its guidance about how such schemes should be evaluated.

Making the Alternatives to the Car More Attractive For urban trips, the main alternatives to the car are walking, cycling, bus and, where available, metro and light rail. Possible methods of overcoming the barriers associated with the perceived difficulties of walking and cycling include improving the walking environment by investing in better and wider pavements, installing more street lighting, putting in more benches, and paying staff to clear up litter and dog mess (ADONIS, 1999). Measures which make cycling more attractive include improving and building cycle lanes and paths, giving cyclists priority at junctions, wider, clearly marked colour coordinated cycling lanes and separate traffic lights. It is also important to provide convenient and safe cycle parking at popular locations including shopping areas and railway stations. The bicycle hire scheme in London is being heavily used but there is no evidence on whether it is attracting people out of their cars. It does not cover its costs (Aldworth, 2011).

Alternative Methods of Accessing the Car Any strategy to reduce car ownership must be able to offer a level of accessibility similar to that offered by the car in order to be politically acceptable. Although no other single mode can offer this, it may be possible to obtain a similar level of flexibility by using a mix of modes. A household might well be willing to give up owning a car and use walking, cycling and public transport to meet most of their travel needs providing they can have access to a car for those trips where a car is seen as essential such as family holidays or supermarket shopping. If they can have access to a car occasionally, but avoid owning one, they will avoid ownership costs, and pay only for the car journeys that they make. In this way they are likely to make more rational choices about which mode to choose for a particular journey.

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Cairns (2011) has identified a number of alternative models of accessing a car:  Taxis: Taxis have existed for many years. They are very flexible and require very little information about how to use them but they involve the hire of a professional driver they are relatively expensive for a single journey.  Shared taxis: modern communications technology opens up the possibility of diverting taxis to pick up further passengers each paying less than for an individual taxi.  Car rental: Many companies offer cars for hire for self-drive for a variety of periods.  Car clubs: A car club offers members access to a fleet of vehicles in their neighbourhood in return for an annual membership fee and a per hour hire charge. The largest example in Britain is Zipcar (2012). The cars are all modern and fuel-efficient and are accessed through smartcards and electronic keys. Booking is done through a website and cars can be collected from many parking places, some provided by local authorities and others by private individuals at their homes who receive free membership and credit towards vehicle hire.  One-way car rental: This is similar to a car club but cars can be left in any legal parking space or a parking space designated as part of the scheme. There are no schemes in Britain as yet but Car2go (2011) has set up schemes in Hamburg and Ulm in Germany, Vancouver in Canada and Austin, Texas, in the USA.  Neighbourhood car rental: A recent innovation in Britain is neighbourhood rental which is a scheme such as Whipcar (2011) in which individual owners offer their cars for hire on a website at a price of their choosing.  Car sharing: Car sharing is the process of two or more people sharing a car and travelling together. They may both be car owners who take it in turn to use their cars, thereby sharing the effort of driving and the cost or one person may drive regularly and receive contributions towards the cost from the passengers. It is also known as car pooling, liftsharing or ridesharing. There are a number of models of car sharing in Britain (Carplus, 2011) including national schemes, workplace schemes, and van pooling where a group of work colleagues share a multi-occupancy vehicle to travel to work together each day, with the car share operator supplying the vehicles, the users sharing the costs of running it and the employer sometimes subsidising it, to reflect the reduction in the cost of car parking and compliance with a workplace travel plan.

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For households who make relatively few trips, some of the alternative methods of accessing cars such as car clubs or neighbourhood car rental would be an attractive option in financial terms. Given the low (or zero) fixed costs of using these schemes it would be straightforward for many households to use a mixture of schemes to meet their accessibility needs. Car clubs appear to have a significant impact on car ownership and use whilst being run on a commercial basis (Harmer & Cairns, 2010). Twentyfive per cent of members reported a reduction in their car ownership and 30% said that they had deferred buying a car. They therefore have the potential to be self sustaining. Reducing Car Use through Planning One of the factors stimulating car use in Britain has been the growth of shopping and other economic centres outside existing urban areas. The current policy is not to allow such out-of-town developments. Policies to concentrate health and educational facilities into larger centres have not, usually, included consideration of the likely impact on the number of car trips. One approach to reducing the distance people need to travel by car is to increase residential densities. Densities fell in Britain with the suburbanisation process, which led to longer trips, which, in turn, led some people to use cars rather than walk or cycle. The increase in the forecast population has led to pressure to build on ‘brown-field’ sites, that is, largely within existing urban areas. This may cause densities to increase, but will not reduce the distance of existing residents from shops, schools and so on, unless new shops and schools are built to meet the increasing demand, and they are within walking distance of existing residents. Land-use policies which make walking and cycling more accessible will increase the desirability of these modes. The following are some of the approaches which can be used:  Physical integration, for example through bicycle racks at railway stations, park and ride and multi-modal public transport terminals;  Building bus stops and cycling lanes near residential areas and areas of interest such as employment and shopping centres;  Mixed use developments incorporating residential and commercial developments with new transport links.

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THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STRATEGIES TO REDUCE CAR USE Most of the policies and actions which could influence levels of car use have not been explicitly designed to do so. Hence, they have not been evaluated to see how effective they are at reducing car use, if they have been evaluated at all. It is quite clear, for example, that the introduction of the London congestion charge reduced the volume of traffic within central London. There is no evidence of increases in traffic in the area surrounding the Congestion Charge Zone (TfL, 2008), but there has not been a systematic study of the changes in travel behaviour brought about by the scheme. Graham-Rowe, Skippon, Gardner, and Abraham, (2011) reviewed schemes that have the explicit objective of reducing car use. After a systematic review of the literature, they found 77 studies about interventions which included car use reduction measures. They concluded that the evidence base was weak, with only 12 evaluations regarded as methodologically strong. Fourteen studies had methodologies that were rated as ‘medium’ either because different samples were used pre-intervention and post-intervention or because no information was reported about the control or comparison group, so the effectiveness of the intervention could not be established. Three more studies were regarded as being of medium/low methodological quality because it was not possible to measure outcomes across the groups. The other 48 studies were all rated as having low methodological quality. Of the twelve methodologically strong studies, four were carried out in the United States, two in Japan and six in Europe: three in Sweden, and one in each of Great Britain, Germany and The Netherlands. Four of them found no evidence of an effect on car use while eight found at least some evidence, but it was fairly weak in at least two cases, and not sustained in at least one (most of them did not look at the long term effects). Some of the sample sizes were very small, and some of the populations examined were atypical such as university students. Given the systematic and comprehensive approach adopted by Graham-Rowe et al. (2011) it seems likely that they identified all the important studies that have been reported. Thus, while there have been many schemes introduced in Britain and elsewhere that appear to have reduced car use, there is little hard evidence based on systematic studies to prove this.

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WHAT CAN CHINA LEARN FROM BRITAIN ABOUT REDUCING CAR USE? This chapter has discussed the experience in Britain of attempts to reduce urban car use. It is not axiomatic that China should try to reduce car use in its cities. It is a question for the government and people of China. It may be difficult to reduce car ownership in China because it has a huge car manufacturing industry and so if the reductions in car are associated with reductions in car ownership, it may have serious economic implications; also because car ownership is much lower than in many other nations, many people in China may wish to have the level of mobility that exist elsewhere. However, cities in China are experiencing many of the problems caused by cars (Mackett, 1999), so it may be appropriate to consider ways of controlling car use in urban areas while trying to provide accessibility levels that are at or close to the levels that cars provide. In Chapter 9 (this volume) Pan outlines ways in which the growth in car use can be reduced by reversing the current priority given to car-oriented development and the low priority given to walking and cycling. The need to address the issue is shown by the evidence that increasing motorisation is contributing to increasing obesity in China (Bell, Ge, & Popkin, 2002). In Britain many of the initiatives aimed at reducing car use have focused on reducing congestion rather than on the concept of actually reducing the number of car trips. The use of parking controls was not effective in the long run because the local authority could not control all forms of parking. Also, parking controls do not stop through traffic and so can have only a limited impact on congestion. The London Congestion Charging scheme is generally seen as successful, unlike the proposed schemes in Edinburgh and Manchester, so it is interesting to examine what caused the difference in outcome. In London, there was a strong champion in Ken Livingstone, supported by very able and astute technical staff. Because he included it in his election manifesto and because the other parties did not oppose the policy at the election, he was under no obligation to hold a referendum. The system was kept as simple as possible with a single cordon and a single charging period each weekday. Only one level of government was involved, and Ken Livingstone was in control of that: central government had given its consent by including it in the Act of Parliament which set up the system of government in London. The conditions were different in Edinburgh and Manchester. In particular, the calling of a referendum in each city led to its rejection by the public, which made it impossible to implement either scheme.

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Increasing the price of fuel through taxation may seem to offer the potential to reduce car use, but the evidence from Britain is that it may be politically unpopular and so counter-productive since measures to reduce car use are only likely to be effective in the long run if they have popular support. It seems likely that the idea of ‘smarter choices’ will continue in local areas in Britain. Many of the initiatives could be regarded as good practice and possibly cost effective for employers and others, for example, by reducing car parking costs. Whilst the limited evidence suggests that the measures can be effective, it is not clear whether they will be sustained over time. Given that they are packages of measures it is not possible to determine exactly what is causing the switch from the car. They may need continuous refreshment, which could be expensive. There needs to be effective evaluation of the schemes to see whether they do work, in which circumstances, and what support is required. From this, it will be possible to maximise their effectiveness. A major issue is the lack of evidence on the effectiveness of initiatives to reduce car use in Britain. There is no shortage of claims of success, but little evidence of systematic evaluations of their cost-effectiveness. Hence, it would seem prudent for China to adopt a cautious approach. However, there are a number of useful pointers from the experience in Britain to the best way to approach the issue. It seems sensible to develop a strategy that involves all modes, including the various models of allowing households to have access to cars other than individual ownership, including car clubs, car rental and car sharing. There is an opportunity to develop cars in China of the types used in schemes such as car2go and Zipcar which are compact, environmentally friendly and efficient, and then implement schemes in cities in China that offer use of the car in urban areas when required, priced in a way that allows comparison with the cost of other modes on an comparable basis. This may discourage many people from buying cars but facilitate high levels of access. Congestion charging seems to be a sensible approach for large congested urban areas, but the schemes should be simple, based on existing technology, use flexible payment systems and introduced on a trial basis. The revenue should be invested in the alternatives of walking, cycling, public transport and encouraging schemes such as car clubs and urban bicycle schemes. Employers and those managing large facilities such as hospitals, universities and shopping centres should be encouraged to think rationally about the means of access by their employees and users (employees, customers, students, and so on), so that alternatives to the car are facilitated through the provision of high quality information, subsidy

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where appropriate, home shopping, and so on. In the longer run, those involved planning of new developments such as housing developments, shopping centres, leisure facilities and universities, should consider the impacts on trip patterns, particularly car use. In summary, it is very important to recognise that the car has brought great benefits to society. It is also very important to acknowledge that it causes many problems, so it is necessary to find ways to address these without losing the significant benefits of increased mobility. This chapter has shown that there are possible solutions that help to address the problems, and are also realistic in terms of political acceptability, and so may help China and other societies around the world to have the benefits of mobility without many of the disadvantages.

REFERENCES ADONIS. (1999). Best practice to promote cycling and walking and how to substitute short car trips by cycling and walking, ADONIS Transport programme. Retrieved from http:// cordis.europa.eu/transport/src/adonisrep.htm Aldworth, N. (2011). Barclays cycle hire. Transport Economist, 38, 12–22. Behavioural Insights Team. (2010). Applying behavioural insight to health, cabinet office. Retrieved from http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/applying-behaviouralinsight-health Bell, A. C., Ge, K, & Popkin, B. M. (2002). The road to obesity or the path to prevention: Motorized transportation and obesity in China. Obesity Research, 10, 277–283. Bonsall, P. (2009). Do we know whether personal travel planning really works? Transport Policy, 16, 306–314. Butland, B., Jebb, S. Kopelman, P., McPherson, K., Thomas, S, Mardell, J. & Parry, V. (2007). Foresight: Tackling obesities: Future choices – project report, Government Office for Science. Retrieved from http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/publishedprojects/tackling-obesities Cairns, S. (2011). Accessing cars: Different ownership and use choices, RAC foundation. Retrieved from http://www.liftshare.com/business/pdfs/RAC_142.pdf Cairns, S., Sloman, L., Newson, C., Anable, J., Kirkbride, A., & Goodwin, P. (2008). Smarter choices: Assessing the potential to achieve traffic reduction using ‘soft measures’. Transport Reviews, 28, 593–618. Carplus. (2011). Car sharing models. Retrieved from http://www.carplus.org.uk/car-sharing/ car-share-models/ Car2go. (2011). Welcome to car2go. Retrieved from http://www.car2go.com Chatterjee, K. (2009). A comparative evaluation of large-scale personal travel planning projects in England. Transport Policy, 16, 293–305. Department for Transport. (1998). A new deal for transport: Better for everyone, Transport White Paper. Retrieved from http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/

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www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/previous/anewdealfortransportbetter fo5695 Department for Transport. (2004). Assessing the impact of graduated vehicle excise duty (PPAD 9/107/20). Retrieved from http://www.dft.gov.uk/rmd/project.asp?intProjectID=11615 Department for Transport. (2010a). Travel plans. Retrieved from http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/ sustainable/travelplans/ Department for Transport. (2010b). The effects of smarter choice programmes in the sustainable travel towns: Full report. Retrieved from http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/sustainable/ smarterchoices/programmes/ Department for Transport. (2011). Transport statistics: Great Britain (2010 ed.). Retrieved from http://www.dft.gov.uk/statistics/series/transport-statistics-great-britain/ Driving Vehicle and Licensing Agency. (2006). A brief history of registration, INF57. Retrieved from http://www.dft.gov.uk/dvla/forms/onlineleaflets.aspx Durham County Council. (2003). Saddler street road user charge scheme, monitoring report. Retrieved from http://content.durham.gov.uk/PDFRepository/SaddlerStreetCongestionChargeReport.pdf Eliasson, J., & Jonsson, L. (2011). The unexpected ‘‘yes’’: Explanatory factors behind the positive attitudes to congestion charges in Stockholm. Transport Policy, 18, 636–647. Goodwin, P., Dargay, J., & Hanly, M. (2004). Elasticities of road traffic and fuel consumption with respect to price and income: A review. Transport Reviews, 24, 275–292. Graham-Rowe, E., Skippon, S., Gardner, B., & Abraham, C. (2011). Can we reduce car use and if so, how? A review of available evidence. Transportation Research A, 45, 401–418. Hansard. (1998, October 20). Environment, transport and the regions, relating to transport. Retrieved from http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199798/cmhansrd/ vo981020/debtext/81020-03.htm Harmer, C. & Cairns, S. (2010). Carplus annual survey of car clubs 2009/10, Transport Research Laboratory. Retrieved from http://www.trl.co.uk/online_store/reports_publications/ trl_reports/cat_sustainability/report_carplus_annual_survey_of_car_clubs_200910.htm Institution of Highways and Transportation. (n.d.). Making smarter choices, produced in partnership with ACT travelwise. Retrieved from http://www.ciht.org.uk/en/ publications/smarter-travel/index.cfm Ison, S. (1996). Pricing road space: Back to the future? The Cambridge experience. Transport Reviews, 16, 109–126. Kay, P. & Evans, P. (1992). Where motor-car is master: How the Department of Transport became bewitched by roads. Council for the Protection of Rural England, London. Mackett, R. L. (1999). Towards the solution of urban transport problems in China. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 11, 334–338. Mackett, R. L. (2003). Why do people use their cars for short trips? Transportation, 30, 329–349. Mackett, R. L. (2009, October 5–7). Why is it so difficult to reduce car use? Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, held at Leeuwenhorst Conference Centre, Noordwijkerhout, near Leiden, Netherlands. Retrieved from http://www.etcproceedings.org/ paper/why-is-it-so-difficult-to-reduce-car-use Ministry of Transport. (1964). Road pricing: The economic and technical possibilities (The Smeed Report). London: HMSO. Murray-Clark, M. (2003, June 18). Central London congestion charging, presentation to the foundation for science & Technology. Retrieved from http://www.foundation.org.uk/ events/pdf/20030618_murray-clark.pdf

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Nottingham City Council. (2011). Workplace working levy. Retrieved from http://www. nottinghamcity.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=905 Pearce, L. (2009). The politics of controversial transport policies: The London congestion charge. MSc dissertation (Supervised by Roger Mackett). Imperial College and University College, London. Rye, T., Gaunt, M., & Ison, S. (2008). Edinburgh’s congestion charging plans: An analysis of the reasons for non-implementation. Transportation Planning and Technology, 31, 641–661. Santos, G. (2004). Urban road pricing in the UK, road pricing: Theory and evidence. Research in Transportation Economics, 9, 251–282. Santos, G. & Shaffer, B. (2004). Preliminary results of the London congestion charging scheme. Retrieved from http://www.mobilidades.org/arquivo/London_congestion_charge.pdf Transport for London. (2008). Central London congestion charging, impacts monitoring. Sixth Annual Report. Retrieved from http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/sixth-annualimpacts-monitoring-report-2008-07.pdf Walters, A. (1961). The theory and measurement of private and social cost of highway congestion. Econometrica, 29, 676–699. Whipcar. (2011). Rent the car next door. Retrieved from http://www.whipcar.com/ Zipcar. (2012). Zipcar: Wheels when you want them. Retrieved from http://www.zipcar.co.uk/

CHAPTER 11 CONTEXTUAL REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE EXAMPLE OF CHINA Wolfgang SCHADE, Fabian KLEY, Jonathan KO¨HLER and Anja PETERS ABSTRACT Purpose – Electric vehicles are very topical in developed countries. The breakthrough of new battery technologies and changing conditions driven by climate policy and growing fossil fuel prices has caused all major car manufacturing countries in the developed world to initiate R&D programmes to gain competitive advantage and to foster market diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs). This chapter looks at developments in China and compares them with observations from developed countries to draw conclusions about differences in their future paths of development. Methodology – This chapter escribes the potentials and R&D approaches for different types of EVs in developing countries, using China as example, in comparison with developed countries. It looks at innovation strategies, policy framework and potential diffusion of EVs. Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 231–253 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003013

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Findings – Market diffusion strategies in developed countries and China may differ, since, in the former manufacturers try to implement a premium strategy (i.e. offer high-price sophisticated EVs), while in the latter market, diffusion will probably appear at the lower end of vehicle types, i.e. via electric scooters and small urban vehicles. It is concluded that the market introduction strategies of EVs in developing countries and developed countries could converge because signs of downsizing of vehicles can be observed in the developed world, while upscaling from bikes and electric scooters can be expected for China, so that large-scale market introduction could occur via small city cars. Implications for China – Instead of following the Western motorisation path, an option for China could be to develop a new one-stop-shop mobility concept integrating small EVs into such a concept. Keywords: EVs; innovation system; market diffusion; country comparison

INTRODUCTION The ‘hot’ topic in radical technological change of alternative fuels and engines has changed rapidly over the past few years. Until the middle of the last decade it was hydrogen fuel cells that seemed to be the solution to the resource and environmental problems of transport and was promoted by industry and policy-making such as the European HyWays Project (HyWays, 2004). After that came a phase during which biofuels were promoted as the ultimate solution, in particular for greenhouse gas emissions and energy security, e.g. the US Energy Policy Act of 2005 (US Government Printing Office, 2005) and the German BiokraftQuG (2006). For the last three years, electric vehicles have been regarded as the most promising alternative for solving environmental problems and overcoming the fossil fuel dependence of transport (e.g. German Government, 2010). This chapter will address the issue of electric vehicles from various perspectives and compare the potential use of such vehicles in developed and developing countries. This is important because even if the vehicles in both regions were the same, the impacts would be very different; taking China and average European countries as examples, the upstream emissions of greenhouse gases or other air pollutants due to electricity production for

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EVs would be significantly higher in China than in Europe. In some European countries like Germany, it is expected that by 2030 up to 60% of electricity will be produced from renewables, i.e. carbon free (Nitsch, 2009), which cannot be expected for China. Additionally, it seems that EV use in developing countries will differ from developed countries as the vehicle types will differ. In developing countries electric scooters will play a larger role than in developed countries, even if the fleet structure in developing countries changes in the future. This chapter describes the different types of electric vehicles and explains which environmental or mobility advantages can be expected from EVs. Then the various innovation strategies for EVs are explained, where the focus for developing countries is on China and an overview of different EV field tests across the globe is given. This is followed by a summary of the problems of acceptance of EVs leading to the potential pathways for diffusion of EVs in the different world regions. The final sections provide a synthesis of findings and conclusions.

TYPOLOGY AND CHARACTERISTICS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES Recently, the transport sector has been attracting more attention in the efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions due to its high absolute emission volumes as well as the strong growth of mobility in developed countries. While road-based transport contributes roughly a quarter to total emissions in developed continents, such as Europe and North America, the share is much lower in developing countries, such as China (Fig. 1), both absolutely and relatively. For developed countries, environmentally friendly road transport is thus a key lever to reduce emissions today: for developing countries it is a powerful technology to decouple emissions from economic growth when their road-based transport catches up with the levels in developed countries. Road-based transport is very diverse with many different vehicle types and usage patterns. This requires a detailed analysis when assessing the applicability of alternative technologies. Vehicle types range from twowheelers, such as scooters and motor bikes, to trucks and buses. In between, there is a wide variety of passenger cars of different sizes and vans. Mostly, these vehicles are used in different settings, which range from the daily

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1.000

2.000

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Fig. 1.

Per Capita Emissions of Road Transport (in kg CO2/capita and % of total).

commute to commercial applications. Vehicle types and usage also vary between developing and developed countries. For example, in China, a high share of daily trips is made by bus and the first vehicles purchased tend to be motor bikes. Wang, Huo and Johnson, (2007) provide details on the different vehicle types in China which indicate roughly 60% are motor bikes and only 20% passenger cars. In developed countries, such as Germany, the passenger car is the dominant choice of individual transport and accounts for more than 80% of vehicle stocks (Fig. 2). The discussion of alternative vehicle technologies in this chapter, therefore, mainly focuses on passenger vehicles, i.e. cars and two-wheelers including bicycles, and does not include trucks or buses. Wang et al. (2007) predict that the share of motor bikes in China will not drop but will increase in absolute terms and might still be a field for alternative transport technologies (see also Weinert, Ogden, Sperling, & Burke, 2008). Electric bikes, for instance, already account for almost 100 million units in China and are increasing as described by Jiang and Tso (2010). There are many different alternative propulsion technologies. These can be grouped into three main technology types: 1. a combustion engine based on fossil or biofuels (ICE), 2. an electric motor with a fuel cell, e.g. based on hydrogen (FCV), and 3. an electric motor powered by an electrochemical battery (BEV).

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6,957,667 4% Other 14% Truck

Percentage of Total

8%

Van

1%

Motor Bike

59%

Passenger Car

86%

0%

20%

40% Private Use

Fig. 2.

22%

60%

80%

100%

Commercial Use

Vehicle Stock by Type and Use (based on Germany). Source: KBA (2009), own illustration.

Note that both (2) and (3) are based on an electric motor, which necessitates the electrification of the power train and further appliances. Both alternative technologies are, however, still undergoing development and thus have drawbacks compared with the incumbent technology, e.g. electrochemical batteries have limited energy storage. In addition to vehicles using only one propulsion technology, hybrids try to combine the best of both worlds and to overcome technological restrictions by using two concepts. A vehicle with an electric motor powered by an electrochemical battery as well as an internal combustion engine is called a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV). Car manufacturers differentiate the various hybrid vehicles depending on the power train architecture (such as whether the two propulsion systems are constructed in a serial or a parallel design) and the size of the battery (see also Chan, 2007). Most importantly, a hybrid which not only converts braking energy, but can recharge its battery by plugging into an external power supply, is called a plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV). These open the door to fully electric driving. The advantages of electric propulsion can be better exploited with a large share of electric driving. PHEVs with large batteries drive almost fully electric; the internal combustion engine is only used for very long journeys and is thus called a ‘range extender’. Fuel cell vehicles (FCV) need a battery besides their main energy storage to enhance power density and performance and are thus always a hybrid technology. With a larger battery, which is charged at an

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Fuel Tank

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FCV = one propulsion or storage system

= hybrids / combination of propulsion or storage system

Note: Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV),Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), Plug-In Hybrid Fuel Cell Vehicle (PFCV), Fuel Cell Vehicle (FVC)

Fig. 3. Alternative Propulsion Systems and Their Energy Supply.

external power supply, fuel cells can also be operated as plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicles (PFCV) allowing high electricity consumption and better energy conversion (Fig. 3). The three different propulsion technologies have to be supplied with gasoline, electricity or hydrogen. When combining different propulsion technologies in a hybrid system, the vehicle must have access to both infrastructures. Hybrids which cannot be plugged into an external charger (HEV) will only require the infrastructure for their main propulsion system (see also Fig. 3). While energy at fossil fuel and hydrogen stations can be supplied in minutes, charging a battery requires vehicles to park for longer times and charging facilities will have to be integrated, e.g. in the parking place at home or at the workplace. High prospective market shares are currently being discussed for electric vehicles, particularly following recent developments and their likely importance in emerging markets. Furthermore, electric vehicles have several advantages over the internal combustion engine: 1. Electric vehicles are environmentally friendly, avoiding local emissions and cutting overall emissions (CO2, NOx, particulate matter) as well as reducing noise, and increasing energy efficiency. 2. They enhance the security of the energy supply by reducing oil imports. 3. They complement today’s energy system, helping to integrate renewables when charged in a controlled and smart way.

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But electric vehicles also face some challenges, such as long charging times, low range on a full battery, and costs that are still relatively high. While these challenges remain a focus of the research and development departments and can be partially addressed with proper market segmentation, the advantages of an electric vehicle can be exploited differently depending on the regional characteristics. The first advantage, lower emissions and higher efficiency of an electric vehicle, can only be realised if the underlying power mix has a low energy and CO2 intensity (Fig. 4). Huo, Zhang, Wang, Streets and He (2010) conclude that replacing current petrol cars in China with current EVs would increase NOx or PM emissions significantly. This would still hold if there are moderate efficiency improvements in Chinese power plants and limited implementation of carbon, capture and storage (CCS) in China up to 2030, given that also petrol vehicles will become cleaner and more efficient. In Europe, the situation differs as power plants are on average less polluting and, in particular, the share of renewables for electricity production will be higher, with shares above 60% of renewable electricity expected in 2030 (Nitsch, 2009). While developed countries benefit from their more efficient, lower emission power plants, developing countries cannot achieve an overall emission reduction, even though local emissions can be avoided, e.g. in city centres. The second advantage of electric vehicles, the enhancement of the security of supply, is seen as a very important political paradigm in developed 140

Modern ICE 77

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107

OECD North America

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BEVs Non-OECD Asia China India

156 167 200

Note: Electricity consumption 18 kWh/100km, charging efficiency of 84%, specific emissions for electricity generation averaged 2005-2007

Fig. 4.

Specific Emissions (g CO2/km)

EU 27

Specific Well-to-Wheel Emissions Based on Current Power Mix (in g CO2/km).

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countries, while developing countries sometimes have better access to energy sources and often value independence to a lower degree. The third advantage, that electric vehicles can play an important role for the energy system as mobile energy storage if there is a high level of fluctuating renewable generation and few alternative storage potentials, is more probable in developed countries. In addition, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are still facing technical, economic, and psychological challenges which have to be met: (1) cheaper and more powerful batteries have to be developed, (2) high purchase costs have to be reduced, e.g. by establishing support schemes, (3) consumer confidence has to be boosted about trip lengths and infrastructure availability, and (4) the concept of small light-weight city EVs has to gain acceptance and thus larger market shares, when these become better integrated into multi-modal mobility concepts. Due to challenges (1) and (2), EVs will still be relatively expensive for the next few years and are likely to be adopted primarily in developed countries. Incentive schemes have been introduced to try to overcome the discrepancy in costs, e.g. EVs can profit from reduced fuel and electricity taxation. This discrepancy is especially high in developed countries which have introduced high taxes on fossil fuels.

INNOVATION STRATEGIES RELATED TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES This section reviews the automobile industry’s strategies for innovation in electric vehicles. China now has a history of active policy in this field and the Chinese strategy is compared to that of the established manufacturers.

Environmental Innovation in the Automobile Industry While the automobile industry spends a great deal of money and resources (Leduc et al., 2010) on R&D, this is strongly oriented to maintaining shares of the current and near-term market. Environmental innovation has only happened through policy and regulatory pressure (Ko¨hler, Whitmarsh, Michie, & Oughton, 2008). The impact of government intervention for environmental purposes was first evident in the United States when California initiated legislation for

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automobile emissions in 1960, and subsequently the 1970 federal Clean Air Act was introduced. This demanded 90% emission reductions from new automobiles over a four- to five-year period (Gerard & Lave, 2005). In response, GM and Ford invested heavily in R&D and equipment installation for technologies to reduce emissions of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides, eventually leading to the production of the automotive catalytic converter in 1975 and the three-way catalyst in 1981. Important in this respect, however, is regulator credibility, without which environmental legislation is unlikely to be effective. More recently, in 1990, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) announced its zero emission vehicle (ZEV) programme which would require automobile manufacturers to produce and sell an increasing proportion of zero emission vehicles from their new car sales: 3% in 1998, rising to 10% by 2003. Similar mandates are in force elsewhere (e.g. Switzerland). This has prompted major public and private investment in electric (BEV) and subsequently hybrid (HEV) and FCV, not only among US car producers but also by Japanese and European firms (Dyerson & Pilkington, 2000). Other US policies, such as the 1992 Energy Policy Act and the current Bioenergy Program, which promote bioethanol production and use have encouraged major manufacturers, such as Toyota, to invest in flexible-fuel vehicles (Toyota, 2006). In Japan, government policy has similarly stimulated environmental innovation within the automotive sector. In response to the US Clean Air Act, Japanese authorities set identical emissions standards, to ensure their vehicle producers would not be excluded from US markets (Gerard & Lave, 2005). As part of its programme to develop and promote clean vehicle technologies, the Japanese Ministry for Innovation (MITI) has created technological ‘visions’ through collective foresight exercises, established intercompany knowledge networks, sponsored R&D, leasing and purchasing incentive programmes, subsidies for electric vehicle manufacturers, public procurement (e.g. electric Toyota Rav4s sold to some Japanese authorities) and facilitated market entry through legislation and standards (A˚hman, 2006). This programme, along with the CARB zero-emission vehicles mandate, has been a key determinant of Toyota’s investment in, and ultimate commercial success with, HEV and PHEV (A˚hman, 2006). Ko¨hler et al. (2008) outlines the different firms’ strategies in respect of environmental innovation up to 2008. Different firms adopted different strategies with respect to different fuel and vehicle technologies (hybrids, electric, biofuels, hydrogen and fuel cells, gasoline efficiency and exhaust emissions, lightweight chassis and components), and thus no one firm can be readily categorised as a ‘leader’ or ‘laggard’ with respect to environmental

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innovation. For example, although Toyota was the first company to produce a commercial hybrid petrol-electric car (HEV), the Prius in 1997, they have also developed biofuel engines and have developed fuel cell cars since 1996. Ford launched a fuel cell prototype vehicle in 1999, has sold more than 2 million ethanol-capable vehicles since 1996 and launched the first hybrid ICE-electric SUV, the Escape in 2004. The Rush to Electric Vehicles There has however been a change. Since about mid-2008, firms have been concentrating on developing HEV, PHEV and BEV and are pushing for the development of electricity charging infrastructures to enable the widespread use of ICE-plug in electric hybrids. Toyota, through its Prius model, is now the manufacturer with the most established product, the Prius medium-sized ICE-battery hybrid. Toyota had accumulated sales of 2.01 million vehicles by September 2009 (Toyota, 2009). However, all the major manufacturers have plans to introduce hybrids to the market in the next few years. The following examples constitute a snapshot as business plans on EVs have been an area of rapid change in the last three years. Ford are producing a hybrid version of their Focus small-medium car, GM introduced the Chevrolet Volt in 2010 (WSJ, 2009), Nissan-Renault launched the battery electric Leaf in the US and Japan in 2010 and in the EU in 2011 (Auto Motor und Sport, 2009). Daimler is planning to start series production of their electric SMART in 2012 (RP Online, 2010). BMW and VW are also following this trend; BMW are testing a battery electric Mini, with series production planned for 2015 and VW are developing a hybrid version of the Golf, with series production planned for 2014 (Pander, 2008). Mitsubishi and Peugeot-Citroe¨n have launched the iMiEV under both brand names in 2009 and 2010 (Automobilsport.com, 2009). There are also battery electric sports vehicles in production, most notably the Tesla (WSJ, 2009). One major reason for this consensus to develop ICE-battery hybrids is the prospect of binding legislation in the near future requiring rapid action by manufacturers. The Californian ZEV legislation was updated in 2009 to support battery electric hybrids (CEPA-ARB, 2010) and the European Commission has published legislation imposing required CO2 emissions standards, with the average of all new cars required to be 130 g CO2/km by 2015 and a target of 95 g CO2/km for 2020 (EU Parliament, 2009). This legislative pressure combines with improved battery technology. In 2007, a critical new development was the introduction of Li-ion batteries, which significantly improved the performance of car batteries. Hence, impending legislation combined with recent improvements in battery technology and

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increases in fossil fuel prices could give hybrids and EVs a strong advantage over FCV and conventional combustion vehicles. FCV are much more expensive than battery vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure is still at the demonstration stage, with new standards and legislation required. In contrast to FCV, electric hybrids have already been sold in the market in large enough numbers to bring the costs down towards those of conventional cars. The problem with electric vehicles is the very limited performance of batteries, giving reduced range compared to ICE cars. This has been clearly expressed by Honda (Autobloggreen, 2009). They are developing a plug-in hybrid to meet the California ZEV legislation, but still believe that ‘people will become more aware of the limits of BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles)’ and resume interest in hydrogen. The Development of Knowledge Sharing Networks Advanced Li-ion battery and fuel cell technologies are specialised activities. Therefore, it has been necessary for car manufacturers to enter into agreements with battery and fuel cell specialists. Because of the concentration of car manufacturing and the consequent strong competition between established companies, knowledge sharing happens mainly through limited, explicit alliances, e.g. Daimler-Ballard, Renault-Nissan-NEC and ToyotaMatsushita. Fig. 5 illustrates the structure of alliances for electric vehicles. Several small-scale networks combining car manufacturers, battery producers and energy firms can be seen. Schneider, Schade and Grupp (2004) have assessed strategic alliances for fuel cells. They identified the California Fuel Cell Partnership and the agreement of Daimler with Ford as both having a strategy of technology leaders in FCV development with the Daimler NECAR and Ford Focus platforms. There was also a partnership of Toyota with GM.

Development and Policy for EVs in China Since 1999, with the launch of the air purification and clean vehicle project, China has been actively pursuing both the development of its automotive industry and alternative fuel vehicles (Wang, 2010). From the mid-1980s, China has opened up the automobile sector for foreign joint ventures. While this was initially unsuccessful, the relaxation of trade restrictions following China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 combined with the rapid expansion of the Chinese market to induce foreign companies

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Automotive supplier

Automotive manufacturer

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Valeo

LG Chem

Hitachi Michelin

Dong Energy

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‘Better Place Denmark’

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A123 Systems

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GS Yuasa JV ‘Lithium Energy Japan’

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NEC TOKIN Corp. Suzuki JV AESC

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(e.g. Munich)

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‘e-mobility Berlin’

RWE

JV ‘LIB 2015’

BASF

Bosch Samsung SDI

Cobasys

JV ‘SB LiMotive’

Fig. 5. Examples of Partnerships Worldwide for Developing Electric Vehicles (PHEVs, HEVs, BEVs). Source: EC-IPTS in Leduc et al. (2010), Based on Recent Announcements (subject to change), JV Stands for Joint Venture.

to expand manufacture and introduce more modern technology (Oliver, Gallagher, Tian, & Zhang, 2009). The Chinese automobile industry is now one of the largest producers in the world, being third in the world in 2008 with 9.35 million cars and 25.5 million motorcycles (Ou, Zhang, & Chang, 2009). The government set a target for the period 2009–2011 for Chinese brands to achieve 40% of the domestic passenger vehicle market, and 30% of the car market (Wang, 2010). There has been a programme of mandatory fuel efficiency standards, described in Oliver et al. (2009), which have had a significant effect in reducing the average fuel consumption of new vehicles. There has also been a programme of hydrogen FCV development, described in Zhang and Cooke (2010). Hydrogen vehicles, as in other countries, are still much more expensive than conventional vehicles and require new infrastructure. There have also been a series of measures for electric vehicles (Wang, 2010). In 2001, an EV programme was launched with funding of $106

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million. In 2007, the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee set up 32 new standards for EV and rules for ‘the Production Admission Administration of New Energy Automobiles’ were introduced. In 2009, the BYD company released the e6 BEV at the North American International Auto Show and the ‘10 cities, 1000 EVs’ programme was launched. Yang (2010) compares the electric vehicle strategies of China and Taiwan. In the late 1990s, motorcycle bans and lax enforcement of electric bicycle standards (such as electric scooters not being regarded as motorcycles) enabled the electric bicycle market in China to take off. Yang (2010) shows that there is considerable evidence that restrictions on alternatives to EVs is a more successful policy strategy for the promotion of EVs than subsidies for EVs. Taiwan has subsidised EVs, but the market has yet to take off. This Chinese EV strategy is supported by a series of new national policies introduced in 2009 (VDA China, 2010; Wang, 2010): a differentiated fuel tax, subsidies for energy efficient new energy vehicles and rules to encourage government procurement of alternative energy vehicles. A target of 500,000 annual production of energy saving vehicles has been set, with the objective that market share of new energy vehicles should be 5% by 2011. There is an important caveat to this EV strategy. While it has the potential to reduce local air pollution where a major source of pollution in Chinese cities is often motor vehicles, He, Wang and Thomas (2007), Jiang, Zhu and Shrestha (2007) and Huo et al. (2010) draw attention to the fact that electricity production in China has a considerable proportion of coalfired generation. Adoption of clean coal technologies will be necessary if genuine savings in greenhouse gas emissions are to be achieved.

Current Situation and Future Developments in China As with the main traditional centres of the automobile industry (the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy), China now regards car manufacture as a vital part of its industrial base. Since the late 1990s, China has pursued an active strategy of development of alternative technologies to the internal combustion engine, arguably with greater consistency than the other main producing countries apart from Japan. A broad range of polices is in place. EVs and FCV technology development programmes are running in parallel and economic incentives, both taxes and subsidies for market uptake, have been adopted. This is combined with target setting as part of the Chinese economic planning system to embed the new technologies in the policy

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arena, which gives the strategy a stability not always seen in other countries (Leduc et al., 2010). While the development of automobile markets started later than in the other main producer countries, the very rapid expansion of both the production and demand of motor vehicles is enabling China to ‘catch up’ with electric and FCV technologies. The market for electric bicycles and scooters and very small three and four wheeled EVs is a major, if accidental, success in China, to an extent not found in other countries. China can be expected to be at the forefront of technology development in alternative fuelled vehicles in the future and will probably be the largest market for EVs. Further, a signal of this is the ‘20-cities 1000 vehicles’ programme promoting the rollout of a thousand electric vehicles in 20 Chinese cities by 2012. In addition, since June 2010, the cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Changchun, Shenzhen and Hefei have given their residents who purchase a BEV up to $8,800 and as much as $7,320 when buying a PHEV (VDA China, 2010).

DIFFUSION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES The first road vehicle to achieve a speed of more than 100 km/h was an electric vehicle called La Jamais Content. This happened in 1899. However, at the beginning of the twentieth century the internal combustion engine was successful in competition with BEVs. In the last two decades a few thousand battery electric cars have been sold, mostly experimental cars or small production series like Twike, CityEl, Hotzenblitz, ThinkCity or Reva/ G-Wiz. The large car manufacturers only entered the electric vehicles (BEV, HEV, PHEV) market from 2010 with the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and the Nissan Leaf that went into large-scale production at the end of 2010 followed by the other large manufacturers between 2011 and 2014 as explained above. More important for the diffusion of EVs seem to be the field tests that are currently being carried out in all major car manufacturing countries across the world, as they will both help to solve the technical problems that still exist and enable analysis and raise acceptance of the specific characteristics of EVs. Examples are the BMW Mini E study starting in 2009 offering 450 users in Los Angeles and New York, a battery electric Mini, while BMW also ran similar tests in Berlin and London in 2010. In Germany three ministries are funding in total 19 field tests during 2009–2011 to answer various questions to solve the remaining technical issues, and analysing

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acceptance or integration of EVs into the electricity grid. All large car manufacturers are participating in one or the other of these field tests. Similar tests exist in France, Italy and the United Kingdom. It is interesting to note that other electric vehicles like electric scooters are only being tested in Europe in a few of these trials (e.g. in Stuttgart in Meregio Mobil). It seems that in Europe until 2010, although electric bikes recently gained a significant market share (about 4% in Germany in 2009), both electric bikes and electric scooters are being placed in niche markets by the proponents of electric mobility. In China it is estimated that in 2010 the fleet of such electric two-wheelers reached 120 million in 2010. Two preliminary conclusions can be drawn from this: first, in developing countries market diffusion of electric vehicles will tend to start from the smallest EVs (two-wheelers) and numbers of larger EVs (four-wheelers) may grow more strongly than in Europe. Second, the car manufacturers – at least in the developed world – will try to keep their position of selling fourwheelers with at least four seats, i.e. the cars that they sold in the past that have simply been modified with electric motors and batteries. To them, a path that increases acceptance of EVs by selling significant numbers of twowheeler EVs in a first step to make the technology familiar and in a second step selling car-like EVs seems not to offer a suitable business model. An open issue remains as to whether the combined concept emerging from mixing car attributes with bicycle attributes and creating a lightweight electric city car with three or four wheels and battery electric traction would be the most promising for both the BEV concept and the urban use case. This concept seems mainly to be addressed by niche producers (like Twike, ThinkCity, and Mia Electric) or still remains in the experimental stage as in the cooperation between Segway and General Motors developing the PUMA and recently the Segway-EN-V. If this is promoted strongly, it seems that such a concept could close a gap in today’s mobility concepts, where conventional cars are too large for cities and where distances are too great for conventional bikes.

ISSUES OF ACCEPTANCE OF EVS For the success of electric vehicles in general, it is not just important to achieve technological breakthroughs. Consumer acceptance will be necessary for actual diffusion and will determine specific patterns of electric vehicle use. Knowledge about consumer and user preferences is therefore crucial to direct and improve technical development and to enable an

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effective promotion of electric vehicles. Due to the low commercial availability of electric vehicles at this time, scientific findings and practical experience of consumer behaviour and needs regarding electric vehicles are rare. Most developed countries and large automobile manufacturers have launched extensive research programmes for battery and vehicle development. By conducting field trials they are testing new technologies in order to explore consumer acceptance and to evolve successful mobility solutions and business models. For example, the German government launched a large research project in 2009 running until July 2011. It is conducted by a network of Fraunhofer Institutes to promote the marketability of electric mobility (Fraunhofer, 2011). Research on the acceptance of EVs conducted within this project (Peters & Duetschke, 2010; Peters & Hoffmann, 2011) indicates that electric vehicles seem to have, in general, a positive image in Germany. They may attract consumers because of their innovativeness, environmental advantages, reduced noise emission and lower running costs. Critical aspects with regard to consumer acceptance seem to be, in particular, the high costs of the EVs caused by costly batteries, a low confidence in the range and a long charging duration. Besides technological improvements, new ownership structures such as battery leasing or intelligent business models which combine the use of electric vehicles with the use of public transport or conventional vehicles might reduce these barriers in developed countries. In general, new mobility concepts should ensure uncomplicated use of electric vehicles. Using electric vehicles should not increase the effort of being mobile (Peters & Hoffmann, 2011). So far, research findings indicate four promising target groups of private consumers who might be early adopters of electric vehicles in developed countries: consumers (1) who are interested in new technology; (2) who are environmentally aware; (3) who travel a lot in urban areas and value flexible, individual and sustainable travel; and (4) consumers who are welloff and interested in vehicles which stand out (Peters & Duetschke, 2010). These groups were identified as users of the first generation of electric vehicles in the 1990s by Truffer, Harms and Waechter (2000). As far as is known, there are no systematic studies addressing the consumer acceptance of electric vehicles in China so far. Conclusions from findings in western cultures cannot be generalised, because in China there is a very different culture and mentality including attitudes to technology. Thus, the situation and factors which influence adoption of electric vehicles by consumers might be very different and have to be analysed specifically.

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The Chinese market for passenger vehicles is, in general, far from being saturated as it is in developed countries. This could enable the rapid adoption of vehicles using new technologies, such as electric vehicles. However, a large share of new car buyers might first require family-size cars with full functionality, as McKinsey (2010) points out for Shanghai, which would result in a slower increase in demand for EVs. However, findings indicate as well that early adopters differ from other consumers more in their attitudes and willingness to make adjustments than in their functional profiles (McKinsey, 2010). It is hypothesised that, in China, consumers will be more willing to adopt EVs, given that Chinese consumers are not used to conventional vehicles to the same degree as consumers in developed countries, but more to electric bikes. Chinese society in general seems to have a very positive attitude towards technology which is regarded as able to solve all problems. In China, as well as in developed countries, the high purchase prices of vehicles with alternative technology may be deterrents to adoption (cf. Lin, Chen, & Xue, 2010). However, it is very likely that the Chinese government will reduce the price differential between conventional and electric vehicles by subsidies in order to promote the development of electric vehicles in China, as described above. Findings on the potential early adopters of EVs in the cities of New York and Shanghai provided some support for the hypothesis that Chinese consumers would be more willing to adopt EVs (McKinsey, 2010): while in New York the share of potential early adopters that are already enthusiastic about EVs is estimated to be 20% of all new car buyers, in Shanghai it might be significantly higher with 30% of total new car buyers. However, Shanghai should not be regarded as typical for the Chinese market, especially with regard to experience with conventional cars and levels of income. Conventional cars have diffused more widely in Shanghai and on the east coast in general than in the Western parts of China where leapfrogging to EVs without wide adoption of conventional vehicles may therefore be more likely. Moreover, income effects have to be considered when comparing the Chinese market with the market in developed countries. However, at this point of time, such comparisons are difficult, as cost differentials and amounts of subsidy are still unknown. Finally, the role of acceptance by Chinese consumers compared to other factors influencing adoption of EVs is still unclear. In summary, with regard to consumer behaviour, the experience and attitudes of Chinese consumers as well as the willingness of the Chinese government to subsidise new technologies in favour of Chinese industry might provide a further argument that EV markets could develop faster in

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China than in European countries, where technological scepticism is more widespread among consumers and consumers tend to compare electric vehicles to conventional vehicles due to their extensive experience in using ICE vehicles. Above all, this outline indicates the need for further research in this area to determine the level of acceptance and its influence on the diffusion of EVs in China compared to other factors of influence.

INTEGRATION OF EVS INTO URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS OF DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES It has been observed that the integration of 120 million electric bikes and scooters into the transport system of large cities caused significant problems in China, in particular the increase of accidents with a high death rate of drivers or of pedestrians hit by electric two-wheelers (People’s Daily Online, 2011; Wang, Ma, & Tang, 2005). This shows also that these types of vehicles require specific rules and organisation of infrastructures to be used successfully. In the developing world, one of the most successful uses of small electric vehicles seems to be the tourist city tours on the Segway two-wheelers, which are offered in many European and US cities and are currently spreading to tourist destinations all over the world (the recent number was more than 400 locations worldwide at which Segway guided tours are offered) (Segway Tours, 2011). This appears to be an effective way of spreading knowledge about small electric vehicles. The most interesting open question concerning small city-car style electric vehicles is whether they have the potential to change urban transport systems. This could happen via the integration of such vehicles into largescale urban car-sharing systems (Paris is planning one example of such a system), which could then be connected barrier-free to the public transport system providing access to the combined system via a single medium such as a mobility card or a mobile smart phone and requiring only one payment system that is linked with the mobility card or mobile phone. Such a concept would offer true multi-modality where urban transport users choose the appropriate transport means according to the requirement of their trip, be it a (shared) bicycle for short trips, public transport for longer trips along the public transport corridors or a shared city car for longer trips to other destinations.

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The requirement for such a step change in mobility would be a tool for a ‘one-stop-shop’ enabling booking of cars or bicycles, using cars, bicycles or public transport and paying all mobility charges in one bill. The potential development route for such a unified booking-using-paying tool is still unclear. It could be the car manufacturers, when they discover the business opportunities linked with a change from being a car provider to a mobility provider. It could also be public transport operators like the German railway (DB AG) who is already organising both a car sharing and a bicyclesharing system, but it could also be one of the global technology companies like SIEMENS or IBM, who have discovered the potential markets of providing integrated mobility in global megacities.

SYNTHESIS AND PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS Electric vehicles will play a different role in developed and developing countries. In both types of country they will enter the market as city cars, i.e. cars that will be used for mobility within urban areas for short trips that are part of daily mobility. However, in the developed countries this presupposes a trend of vehicle downsizing, i.e. these city cars will be smaller than the average cars used today for such trips in cities. The driver of this change of mobility behaviour will be fourfold: 1. increased multi-modality, i.e. transport users selecting increasingly the type of transport that best fits their transport needs, which will often be a small car, as most trips are made by one or two persons, 2. climate policy requiring strong reductions of greenhouse gas emissions of transport, 3. increasing oil prices, which will favour non-fossil propulsion like electric vehicles that are ‘fuelled’ by renewable electricity, and 4. technical progress leading to affordable and powerful batteries and new electric vehicle concepts. On the other hand, electric vehicles in developing countries will tend to be part of an upscaling of transport means. Looking at the current developments in China, the major electric vehicle there is the electric scooter, i.e. a vehicle that is smaller than the city cars expected to become successful in developed countries. However, the users of such scooters to a large extent have upscaled their daily transport means from using a bicycle to using an electric scooter, i.e. from non-motorised transport to motorised

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transport. Others have switched from fossil fuel powered scooters to electric scooters, which in terms of local air quality have brought an improvement. China has developed a range of policies to support the adoption of EVs. Since many consumers in China have no previous experience of owning cars, they may be more open to new vehicle technologies and mobility concepts than the mature markets in developed countries. It can also be expected that in both regions a premium electric vehicle segment will be successful, but with small numbers of sales. Such vehicles could be the Tesla, Lightning or Audi e-tron. In summary, it is expected that electric vehicles will enter the mass market in the near future, i.e. between 2012 and 2015, in particular BEVs and PHEVs. Market diffusion will then happen through different paths which will finally converge, with the downsizing of electric vehicles in the developed world and upscaling in China. A more open question is whether the introduction of EVs will also change urban mobility concepts. This will depend on the players who develop and bring to the market a one-stop-shop tool enabling booking, using and paying for the mobility services provided by EVs, bikes and public transport.

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CHAPTER 12 THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE BUS RAPID TRANSIT IN XIAMEN CITY JingWei BIAN and Ming DING ABSTRACT Purpose – This chapter discusses the planning and construction of the bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Xiamen, analyses the existing problems and puts forward proposals about the development of BRT, in order to provide a basis for similar systems in other cities. Methodology – The focus of the analysis is strategies for construction, including using BRT to guide urban development, building an integrated transport system, and making allowances for future upgrade of the system to light rail. In addition, the operating effectiveness of BRT is discussed. Findings – (1) At the initial stage of rapid urban expansion, BRT can be used to encourage transit-oriented development (TOD) in the expansion of urban space. (2) The construction of an integrated transport system and the strategies of providing for later upgrade of the system to light rail improves the service quality of public transport provides for rapid growth in the passenger flows, which not only meets the current passenger requirements, but also satisfies the needs for long-term urban development.

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 255–275 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003014

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Practical and social implications – (1) The elevated BRT has a significant influence on the urban landscape and environment, but the operating organization is inflexible. (2) The low price of the tickets has resulted in a serious operating loss. Keywords: Bus rapid transit (BRT); operation effectiveness; transitoriented development (TOD); integrated transport system

BACKGROUND Located in the southeast part of Fujian Province of China, Xiamen is an international seaport and tourist city, and also an important central city in the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Taiwan Straits (Fig. 1). Xiamen

Fig. 1.

Location of Xiamen City.

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City governs the six districts of Siming District, Huli District, Haicang District, Jimei District, Tong’an District and Xiang’an District, with a land area of 1699.39 square kilometres, of which Xiamen Island is 13.7 km long from north to south, 12.5 km wide from east to west, with an area of about 133 square kilometres. In 2009, the city had a population of 2.52 million residents, including 1.30 million of inland residents, and the population density is 10,000 persons per square kilometre (Fig. 2). Currently, Xiamen is in an early period of rapid expansion and new development abounds. The built-up urban area is now twice as large as it was in the year 2000. Xiamen is rapidly changing from a middle-sized

Fig. 2.

Land Use and Population Distribution in 2009.

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Fig. 3.

Vehicle Growth in Xiamen City.

island-type city to a large gulf-type city with rapid suburbanization (Bian, Zhang, & Ding, 2010). The urban land development model should be transformed as quickly as possible with transit-oriented development (TOD) used to help the city to develop organically around public transport routes. In addition, the mass rapid transport system should also be adapted to change the mode of transport development (Bian, 2005, 2006). Like other cities, Xiamen is rapidly becoming a very mobile society. Although the urban transport capacity is being developed rapidly, it is still lower than the traffic demand. At the end of 2009, the city had 640,000 vehicles, an increase of 11.2% over the previous year, showing a trend of rapid growth (Fig. 3). Of these vehicles, 320,000 were automobiles, giving the city a per capita rate of 0.13, and 320,000 vehicles were motorcycles. Seventy percent of cars are concentrated on Xiamen Island, making Xiamen Island the region with the most serious traffic congestion with the average bus running speed having decreased to 16 km/h at peak periods. Despite the strength of Xiamen’s economy (in 2009, it achieved an annual regional GDP of RMB 162.321 billion, a total fiscal revenue of RMB 45.141 billion), a large-scale and expensive Light Rail Transit (LRT) system will not be constructed in the short term. Therefore, BRT has been constructed before the LRT in order to save money and cultivate passenger flows while, at the same time reserving rights, for future upgrade to LRT (Bian & Ding, 2009).

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CONSTRUCTION PRACTICE The First Phase of the BRT Project The first phase of the Xiamen BRT project included three frame lines (Table 1; Fig. 4): Line 1, Line 2 and Line 3 (exhibition transport line), with a total length of about 37.6 km, with most of lines 1 and 3 being elevated. BRT planning began at the end of 2006, with construction on the elevated project beginning in September 2007 and lasting until the end of August 2008. The three lines are as follows: Line 1: No. 1 Port – Jimei Huaqiao University (recently extending to Xiamen North Railway Station) which has a total length of 32.6 km, and 25.5 km of actual operating length across Siming district, Huli district and Jimei district. There are 21 stations at an average distance apart of 1.21 km (as the distance inland is 800 metres). This line also consists of 15.3 km of the elevated bridge inland, 1 km of tunnel underneath the airport, 7.5 km of bridge across the sea and 1.7 km of surface lanes outside the island. Line 2: Jimei Tan Kah Kee Stadium – Xike (recently extended to Tong’an central district) which has a total length of about 10 km (the actual operating line is No. 1 Port – Xike, as the inland section shares the same route with Line 1). This line runs across Jimei and Tong’an districts and Table 1. Xiamen BRT First-Phase Operations. BRT Lines

Origin

Terminal

Line 1

No. 1 Port

Line 2

Tan Kah Kee Stadium

Xike

10

Line 3

Agricultural Research Institute

Qianpu

2.1

Huaqiao University

Length/km

25.5

Right of Way (ROW)

Notes

Elevated bridge in the Recently extended to Xiamen North island, tunnel underneath airport, Railway Station cross-sea bridge, surface lane out of the island Elevated ramp, The inland section medium bus lane shares the same route with Line 1, recently extending to Tong’an District Elevated bridge

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Fig. 4.

BRT First-Phase Lines.

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consists of nine stations with an average distance between stations of 1 km. It also has 1 km of elevated ramp, and 9 km of surface lines. Line 3: Agricultural Research Institute – Qianpu which has a total length of about 2.1km (the actual operating line is: No. 1 Port – Qianpu, as the west section shares the same route with Line 1). This elevated line runs only within the Siming district and consists of two stations with an average distance of 1 km between stations.

The Structure of the BRT System The first phase of the Xiamen BRT System consists of six parts (Fig. 5), including the exclusive right of way, fully functional stations, improved vehicles, reasonable operating line network, passenger service system, and intelligent transportation systems (ITS). The Exclusive Right of Way The major part of the first phase of Xiamen BRT was the elevated right of way, combined with tunnel, cross-sea bridge lanes, and other forms of independent rights of way (Fig. 6). Because it is fully independent from

Fig. 5.

Composition of the BRT System.

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Fig. 6.

Exclusive Right of Way.

other modes of transportation in the city, BRT provides the same operating conditions as LRT, which ensures its rapid, timely and safe operation. The elevated lanes have one lane in each direction with a width of 10 metres and a height of 9 metres. Fully Functional Stations A typical BRT station is an elevated station with three floors, similar to the LRT station (Fig. 7). The ground floor is the road for motor vehicles, the station entrance and the bus transfer area. The middle floor is the station hall used for fare collection and an inspection system. The third floor is the platform, with side platform and safety door so that passengers can load and unload at the same level because the platform is the same height as the vehicles. Passengers can arrive easily at the waiting area and platform via an escalator. Improved Vehicles BRT has exclusive buses. In the first phase, 120 buses with a length of 12 metres and a capacity of 92 passengers were purchased. In July 2010, 18

Bus Rapid Transit in Xiamen City

Fig. 7.

263

An Elevated BRT Station.

articulated buses with a length of 18 metres and a capacity of 200 passengers were added to the BRT bus fleet. GPS was fitted to each vehicle with a low chassis. Reasonable Operating Line Network The first phase of the Xiamen BRT construction forms a network of rapid bus systems. The three lines of the first phase connect the old downtown, business areas, living quarters and the new city development zone off the island, linking railway stations, airport, port and other traffic infrastructure. Passenger Service System Xiamen BRT provides multi-level service systems for passengers, as well as electronic information on the platform, in the station hall, on-board, and at ground level, as well as the artificial information service window (Fig. 8). Intelligent Transportation Systems Xiamen BRT has an advanced ITS, including communications, ticket collection and inspection, operation schedulings, platform screen doors, supervision and control, and many related subsystems to ensure fast and secure operation of the BRT.

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Fig. 8. The Passenger Service System.

CONSTRUCTION STRATEGIES Directing Urban Development The Xiamen BRT corridor includes a combination of service oriented development (SOD) and TOD. According to the current land uses (Fig. 2) and bus passenger flows (Fig. 9), the growing urban area is mainly on the west side of the island, as the northeast part and off-island areas have much less development. The south sections of Xiamen BRT 1 and Line 3 (about 11 km, occupying 30%) cover the main corridor of the passenger flows in the core areas, which are designed in terms of SOD to relieve traffic congestion. The north section of BRT 1 and Line 2 (about 36 km, occupying 70%) is located in the to-be-developed area of ‘New Town’. The bus service is poor and the lines have been developed to support TOD. To avoid there being insufficient passenger flows on the directing-type line and to fully display the

Bus Rapid Transit in Xiamen City

Fig. 9.

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Current Bus Passenger Flow Distributions.

transport advantage of BRT, ‘integrated development’ of the hub station mode needs to be introduced to form TOD around the BRT, improving the development of areas along the lines on basis of the sites. The ‘Integrated Development’ of the BRT Hub The Xiamen BRT system will consist of five large-scale comprehensive hubs (No. 1 Port, Agricultural Research Institute, Qianpu, Tan Kah Kee Stadium and Xike) (Fig. 6) (XUPDI, 2007), providing services of BRT, bus lines, link lines, taxi, parking (Park and Ride) and other transport modes, and will also develop housing and business comprehensively.

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Table 2. The ‘Integrated Development’ of the BRT Hub (units: 10,000 square metres). No. Hub

1. No. 1 Port 2. Agricultural Research Institute 3. Qianpu 4. Tan Kah Kee Stadium 5. Xike

Occupied Construction Floor Layers Living Commercial Areas Areas Area Areas Areas Ratio

Notes

1.8 1.6

2.3 7.0

1.3 4.4

3 21

 4.5

0.6 1.5

Built Under construction

2.0 2.6

5.5 8.4

2.7 2.7

23 30

3.1 3.4

1.6 2.3

Built Built

1.3

5.5

4.2

22

3.0

1.5

Built

Of the five BRT hubs, four have been built, leaving only the Agricultural Research Institute hub to be constructed (Table 2). No.1 Port hub is a comprehensive BRT transfer hub, with three floors above ground and one floor under ground. This hub occupies 18,000 square metres , and has a total construction area of 23,000 square metres, of which 6000 square metres is used for commercial development. Qianpu hub is in a building of 23 floors, occupies 20,000 square metres, and has a total construction area of 55,000 square metres, of which 16,000 square metres is used for commercial development and 31,000 square metres for residential use. Tan Kah Kee Stadium hub occupies 26,000 square metres, and has a total construction area of 84,000 square metres. Xike hub occupies 13,000 square metres and has a total construction area of 55,000 square metres. The Agricultural Research Institute design occupies 16,000 square metres, with a total construction area of 70,000 square metres.

Directing Land Use Along the Lines From the analysis of leasing of land in Xiamen recently (Table 3), it has been found that the area and cost of land leasing are rapidly increasing; this happened after the building of the BRT in 2007. Influenced by the global financial crisis, especially in 2008, the land market crashed, but land leasing around the BRT continued to prosper although half of the turnover rate for the entire city consisted of leased properties. It is clear that BRT plays an important role in the development of land along the lines.

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Table 3.

Land Leasing Along the BRT.

Year Areas of Land Leasing (10,000 square metres) Cost of Land Leasing (100 million yuan)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Along BRT 1 km

Whole City

Ratio (%)

Along BRT 1 km

Whole City

Ratio (%)

19.86 55.7 37.21 71.72 80.15

224 345 82.6 313 380

8.87 16.14 45.05 22.91 21.09

19.39 36.56 31.86 58.3 79.48

145.3 250.7 48.8 303 298

13.34 14.58 65.29 19.24 26.67

Based on the construction of the BRT corridor, BRT promotes land use on both sides. On the one hand, BRT provides conditions that support transport to the stations, while on the other hand, the land development also provides stable passenger flows to achieve coordinated development between transportation and land use.

Building a Comprehensive Transportation System Connecting with Outside Transport Hubs The first-phase of the Xiamen BRT is a rapid bus system connecting No. 1 Port, Xiamen Railway Station, the international airport, and other transportation hubs, realizing quick and efficient passenger exchange among various transportation infrastructures. Separation from Other Transport Vehicles Xiamen Island has a very congested downtown area with narrow roads with a minimum width of 38 metres in the southwest area. If an exclusive surface lane layout had been adopted as in other cities, in contrast to the current BRT, many problems would have occurred. There would have been a need for more land, causing the removal of buildings, a detrimental influence on social traffic, narrow side pavements on new roads, inconvenient road crossings for pedestrians, and a delay in enlarging road intersections, which would be harmful to the improvement of transportation services. The exclusive elevated roads separate the BRT from the surface transportation, increasing the quality of the transportation system, especially in terms of speed and easy transfer of passengers (Fig. 10).

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Fig. 10.

The Elevated BRT.

Reasonable Division with Conventional Bus Network Restricted by the ‘Gulf type’ geographical feature in the current passenger flow corridor (Fig. 8), the conventional bus network has over 30 bus lines in the largest section, some of which are redundant. Based on the construction of the bridge across the sea in the north, the Xiamen BRT will form a new traffic corridor with a high passenger flow. The Xiamen BRT avoids conflicts with the current bus system, while at the same time, forming a network that complements conventional buses and their routes. The southern section of BRT 1 and Line 3 is located in the passenger corridor. As the BRT takes on higher passenger flows, some measures

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should be carried out along the BRT lines, such as adjusting bus routes and reducing bus frequency. However, while the distance between BRT stops is over 1 km and the bus service along the bus lines is poor, there should be an increase in conventional bus lines to strengthen connections with BRT transfers. Seting Up BRT Link Lines In order to promote the attraction of BRT and extend its scope of coverage, 29 link lines have been set up (Fig. 11) (XUPDI, 2008), which serve BRT stations. A link line is a short bus line connection between BRT stations and surrounding residential areas. These link lines are not more than 3 km in

Fig. 11.

Distribution of BRT Link Lines.

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length, are supplied with small buses, have high frequency routes and only cost 0.3 yuan per ticket. Link lines not only offer a service for typical bus passengers, but also provides ‘door to door’ transport service. A recent survey shows that 20% BRT passengers transfer to the link lines.

The Strategy of ‘Reserved for the Light Rail’ The strategy of upgrading to light rail has been combined with the BRT construction. The BRT system is built based on LRT planning, but with much less of an investment cost. It’s providing a rapid bus service and meeting the needs of city expansion, the BRT lines will help cultivate passenger flows in preparation for the upgrade to LRT. The initial investment needed to build BRT is much less than that needed for an LRT system, at about 75 million per kilometre for elevated lanes reserved for future light rail and 5 million yuan for surface lanes (Ding, 2009). The line, radius of curvature, gradient, building of lines, and structural load of the elevated sections of BRT are all meet the specification of LRT, and are reserved for future upgrade. The current BRT stations have the right to keep 75 metres of the station length, providing space for disabled vehicles temporarily and which will be rebuilt later for LRT use. The interfaces of the communication and electromechanical systems for rail transit, as well as the land for equipment buildings and depots are also reserved along the BRT lines. In the future, the BRT can be upgraded quickly as urban areas expand, passenger flows increase and the economy continues to improve. Also, the number of reconstruction and wasteful projects will be reduced dramatically, with a cost of 120 million yuan per kilometre (Bian & Ding, 2009).

OPERATING EFFECTIVENESS Daily Passenger Flows According to statistics (Fig. 12), at the beginning of the first phase of the Xiamen BRT, the average daily passenger flow volume was 100,000 and increased to 150,000 after six months (Meng, 2010). After the addition of 18 metre long articulated vehicles in July 2010, the number of passengers increased to over 200,000.

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Fig. 12.

Average Daily Passenger Volumes.

Table 4. The Operation of the BRT. Index

Daily passenger volume Average distance The largest station passenger flow (at Xiamen Railway Station) The largest intersection passenger flow

BRT First Phase (October 2008)

After Introduction of 18 metre Articulated Vehicles (July 2010)

100,000 8.1 km 15,000

210,000 7.4 km 40,000

21,465

34,179

Passenger Flow Volumes at the Sections The core corridor with the highest daily passenger flow is at the intersection between the Xiamen Railway Station and Lianban, with 4179 passengers per day. According to field observation, the one way PM–peak intersection passenger flow volume is over 8000. The station with the highest daily passenger volume is Xiamen Railway Station, with 40,000 persons per day (Table 4).

Passenger Modal Split According to the survey of person trips carried out in March 2009 (Table 5), the public transit in Xiamen City takes 30.87% of all the trips, an increase

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Trip Mode Structure of Xiamen Residents Over the Time (%).

Table 5. Year

Pedestrian Bicycle

Transit

Taxi Enterprise Personal Motorcycle Shuttle Car and Other

1995 Inland 2003 The City

37.84 36.9

26.20 13.1

16.90 27.5

1.75 4.9

7.10

0.84

9.37 13.5

2009 The City

32.42

11.29

1.03

2009 Inland

33.07

7.24

30.87 (BRT 2.51%) 43.36 (BRT 3.8%)

2.34

8.21

13.84

1.37

3.3

9.81

1.86

4.1

from 27.5% in 2003, of which BRT takes 2.51%. The inland public transit takes 43.36% of all the trips, of which BRT takes 3.8%. The number of BRT vehicles makes up less than 4% of the entire bus fleet of 3000 vehicles, while the length of BRT lanes, both surface and elevated, makes up only 1.5% of all transit lines. However, BRT handles 10% of the volume of all transit passengers (2 million) and plays a more important part in the transit system. The Level of Service From an efficiency perspective, the daily passenger volume of BRT is 1400 persons per vehicle, three times the number of passengers of a conventional bus. The average speed of travel of a BRT bus is 30 km/h, an improvement of nearly double compared with conventional transit. These improvements save passengers’ time, cutting the average 8 km trip down to 16 minutes compared to 30 minutes on a conventional bus (Meng, 2010). From the aspect of passenger satisfaction, Xiamen City residents are very fond of BRT with a recent survey showing a satisfaction rate at 75%.

WEAKNESSES AND SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT The Influence of the Elevated BRT on the Urban Landscape and Environment The elevated BRT located in downtown of Xiamen City is 9 metres high and has obstructed both sides of landscape to a certain degree. Despite noise

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barriers having been set up in the heavily urbanized areas, noise and air pollution is still rather serious because the BRT vehicles are equipped with gasoline engines instead of electric motors. It is suggested that the vertical greening is increased on the bridge piers with greening along the roads, which would reduce visual pollution, set barriers along the entire span of the elevated lanes, improve vehicle maintenance and gradually upgrade to electric energy vehicles to reduce pollution.

Inflexibility of Elevated Lanes The elevated BRT has only two bus lanes, one for each direction. There are no emergency lanes or passing lanes. The three BRT lines start from the same site (No. 1 Port) and travel to three different terminals. The routes among the terminals are not organized. This is in stark contrast with the requirements of flexibility in the BRT. If rescue vehicles are needed for an emergency, they can only park at the two terminal stations (No. 1 Port and Qianpu Station) which are connected to the surface road. If buses break down, towing of these vehicles would be very difficult and cause long delays. It is suggested that the building of the Agricultural Research Institute hub and opening the isolation barrier at the airport surface section should be accelerated, building a BRT U-turn, organizing routes with multisegmented lines such as No.1 Port 2 Agricultural Research Institute, Qianpu 2 Agricultural Research Institute 2 Tan Kah Kee Stadium, Xike 2 Airport, Xike 2 Agricultural Research Institute 2 Qianpu and so on, which can adapt to different ridership demands. Meanwhile, rescue vehicles could be parked at the Agricultural Research Institute hub, located in the middle of the BRT line, which would shorten the distance of rescues when needed.

Severe BRT Operational Loss Xiamen’s BRT is managed by two companies. The BRT Station Company is responsible for the management and maintenance of the elevated bridge and stations. The BRT operating company is responsible for operating the vehicles. The total BRT operating cost is about 150 million yuan per year. Currently, ticket revenues account for the main source of revenue for the BRT. A low-fare policy (0.1 yuan per kilometre), has helped ticket sales

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increase to 68 million yuan per year. Advertising and other miscellaneous income is about 4 million yuan. Annual losses for the BRT is nearly 78 million yuan; this shortfall is made up by government budget subsidies. In order to increase revenue, it is suggested that commercial development around hub stations is accelerated. The commercial area of the five hub stations equals 7.5 million square metres, with a possible annual rent of about 45 million yuan, which would offset part of the BRT operating loss.

CONCLUSIONS By observing the practices of the Xiamen City BRT, it can be concluded that (1) in the initial stages of rapid urban expansion, using BRT initially optimizes land use around bus routes within the BRT corridor and gives high priority to the production of TOD in the expanding urban space. (2) The construction of an organized public transit system based on a BRT corridor, transfer hubs, link lines and regional transit, which can achieve ‘door to door’ service, increase the scope of BRT and improve the comprehensive competitiveness of public transit. (3) An elevated layout mode with an exclusive right of way allows BRT to operate as LRT without negative effects on the surface transport of conventional buses. This elevated layout mode also coordinates with the other transportation means, providing a high-quality public transport service. (4) Using the model of upgrading ‘reserved for light rail’ not only satisfies the current passenger needs in Xiamen City, keeps initial construction costs low and has a shortcycle of construction, but it also satisfies the needs for long-term urban development.

REFERENCES Bian, J. W. (2005). Study on the spatial development and traffic planning in big cities. Planners, 21(8), 5–8. Bian, J. W. (2006). Metropolitan space development and rail transit. Beijing: China Building Industry Press. Bian, J. W., & Ding, M. (2009). Public transportation development in xiamen: An implementary study on planning and development of BRT systems. Urban Transportion of China, 7(3), 6–10. Bian, J. W., Zhang, S., & Ding, M. (2010). Currently urban transportation planning and practice. Beijing: China Building Industry Press. Ding, M. (2009). Developments of the elevated BRT system in Xiamen City. Urban Transportion of China, 7(3), 11–16.

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Meng, Y. P. (2010). Operational analysis of the first BRT system of Xiamen City. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 8(3), 32–37. Xiamen Urban Planning & Design Institute (XUPDI). (2007). Planning of Xiamen BRT network. Xiamen: Xiamen Urban Planning & Design Institute. Xiamen Urban Planning & Design Institute (XUPDI). (2008). Planning of Xiamen BRT firstphase connection lines. Xiamen: Xiamen Urban Planning & Design Institute.

CHAPTER 13 THE INTEGRATION OF THE CONNECTION BETWEEN LAND USE AND TRAFFIC SURROUNDING RAIL TRANSIT STATIONS: THE CASE OF NANJING Wei CAO and Linbo QIAN ABSTRACT Purpose – The chapter studies methods of integrating the connection between land use and traffic surrounding rail transit stations. It offers guidance to urban planners about how to arrange transfer facilities scientifically and promote more efficient use of land nearby. Methodology – The chapter describes studies of station type, station positioning, recommended building floor area ratio (FAR), traffic connection and land use functional demand for five stations on No. 2 Metro Line in Nanjing, determining the traffic connections and layout for the land use surrounding the five stations. Findings – This study of the integrated connection between land use and transport surrounding rail transit stations will act as a guide to help arrange the building of essential transfer facilities scientifically and help

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 277–293 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003015

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cities to make better use of the scarce amount of urban land available for development. This study also shows that the transport system plays an important part in adjusting the functional layout of land use surrounding rail transit stations. Social implications – The results of this study will be particularly significant in the integration of urban planning management and transport management. Furthermore, the coordinated interaction between land-use planning, traffic planning and urban design will benefit Chinese cities as they continue to grow throughout the 21st century and beyond. Keywords: Rail transit; land use; transport planning; integrated connection

FOREWORD – THE KEY ISSUE The rapid development of China’s urban economy and continuous expansion of urban areas has brought many transportation and traffic problems to Chinese cities. Because of the many benefits that urban rail transit provides, it will be the most important factor in solving current and future urban traffic problems. As a punctual, fast and high-capacity mode of transport, rail transit has demonstrated its usefulness in the development of urban spaces (Pan & Ren, 2005). Rail transit systems are currently expanding at a high rate in many major cities. The serious urban traffic problems which now plague Chinese cities will, in turn, cause major changes to urban spatial structure, land use and the environment. With the need to support larger passenger flows, rail transit is highly dependent on land development around metro stations. At present, the number of passengers carried by urban rail transit systems in many cities has not reached their designed passenger flow levels, and the connection between rail transit stations and the development of the surrounding spaces was obviously neglected at the planning stage. Land-use planning and the construction of urban rail transit systems should complement one another. Proper land use generates passenger flows for rail transit, while at the same time, the construction of rail transit can lead to more development and better urban design. These complementary actions will produce good urban space structure and land layout (see Fig. 1). For this reason, it is very important for urban planners to study the

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Building rail transit

Higher traffic demand

Increasing traffic flow

Increasing accessibility

Adding valuesof lands

Changing using properties of lands

Fig. 1.

The Circulative Feedback Relationship between Urban Land Uses and the Traffic System.

integration of the connection between land use and transport surrounding rail transit stations. This chapter takes five stations in Xianlin sub-City along the eastern extension of No. 2 Line of Nanjing Metro as an example to discuss this matter.1

THE BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY The No. 2 Line of Nanjing Metro is an east-west main line linking the centre of the main city and a sub-centre. The east spur line of No. 2 Line of Nanjing Metro extends from Phase I Maqun Station to the east along the Nanjing–Hangzhou Highway. The total length is 12.665 km including the elevated line which makes up 86.8% of its total length. A new method of financing was used for the eastern extension project of No. 2 Line. It was totally financed by its beneficiary, Xianlin University City and by the Nanjing Metro Company. After completion, it will not only be the most advanced and energy-saving spur line of all the completed lines, but it will also be a scenic line with an above ground level rail transit building (Fig. 2). According to the general urban planning outline of Nanjing (2007–2020), an urban main traffic framework oriented by rail and led by ‘Double Expresses’ (express rails and roads) was to be formed in Nanjing during that time period. Planned business and residential areas which are ‘rail-oriented’

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Fig. 2.

The Location of the Five Stations and Xianlin.

would follow. The east spur line of No. 2 Line of Nanjing Metro was to be launched in order to attract and facilitate more passengers in the Xianlin area who could then transfer into the main city. Therefore, strengthening the transfer connection of all stations and scientifically planning them is urgent including the use of bicycles, cars, taxis, buses with the new transfer facilities. The operation of the east spur line will play a large role in the development of surrounding areas (Transit-Oriented Development or TOD). For this reason, it is necessary to study in-depth the land use surrounding the metro stations. This study considers five metro stations (Middle Xianhe Station, Nanjing Normal University Station, Xianhe East Station, Nanjing University Station and Nanjing Sport Institute) along the east spur line and the surrounding land with locations in the range of 500–1,000 m. Guided by TOD, the study mainly looks at the integrated layout of various transfer facilities surrounding metro stations and their relationships with traffic and surrounding buildings. The research is made possible by adjusting the surrounding land functions and the development intensity for each station.

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EXPERIENCE AND LEARNING FROM OTHERS The Experience in the Development of Land Surrounding Rail Transit Stations The Selection of Types for Land Development Surrounding Rail Transit Stations Research shows that class I, II and III and secondary radiation circles are formed surrounding a rail transit station; accordingly, the development of the traffic hub area also displays diminishing circle mode (less development in the areas further away from the station) as shown in Fig. 3. Rail transit stations have an obvious influence on the level of rents for residential buildings, shops and office tenements, but the degree to which each are influenced is different. The rental rates for shops are affected most, closely followed by the influence on residential buildings, while, the rental rates of offices is the least affected. Fig. 4 shows three kinds of land-use classes, commercial offices, residences and shops and the added-value potential in each buffer range. The mixed land use of commercial offices and some commercial residential buildings should be planned preferentially in the core area which is 100 m away from a metro station. The proportion of land used for residential and office can be increased in the range which is 100–300 m away from a metro station; and lands ranging from 400–500 m away from a metro station shall be mainly used for residences (Hui, 2002; Shen & Tan, 2006) (see Fig. 4).

Fig. 3.

The Development Mode of Circles Surrounding Rail Transit Stations.

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Fig. 4. The Price Run Chart of Business, Commercial and Residential Lands Surrounding Rail Transit Stations. Source: Data from Shen and Tan (2006).

Combining Land-Use Planning with Rail Transit Station Planning According to theories of land rent, price and urban land location, as land accessibility is reduced, the profit potential of land is decreased by varying degrees. This is in direct correlation with distance from the urban centre. Rail transit increases accessibility to lands along the spur line, increasing the price and use of urban lands. This, in turn, promotes the development of lands along the rail line and causes a change in population distribution. Because of the far-reaching influence of a rail network on the lives of urban residents and to ensure long-term social and economic benefits, rail transit systems must be closely connected with the overall layout and the development process of a city. The layout and line selection of a rail network in developing areas should depend on the urban strategy set out by planners. In the past, in China and in other parts of the world, rail systems may have been built without regard to an overall master plan for a city, but that is no longer a viable possibility (Bian, 2006). The Integrated Development of Station Areas in Combination with Rail Transit Stations (Above-Metro Tenements, Or Top Cover Development on the Metro Station) The definition of ‘above-metro’ comes from Hong Kong and refers to buildings connecting directly with the entrances and exits of metro

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stations. Each metro station of Hong Kong closely connects with the surrounding commercial and residential areas and many residential areas form integrated buildings with metro stations, that is the above-metro tenement (apartments and offices). As a new mode of housing development, above-metro apartments and offices will increase the urban space available and improve travel and residential conditions for citizens. This joint development strategy of urban rail transit and lands along the spur lines will bring huge social and economic benefits where it is implemented. Adopting the ‘Pearl Necklace-Style’ Development Mode for TOD for Land along Rail Lines Use of the ‘pearl necklace-style’ for connecting multiple TOD areas along a rail line is recommended. TOD is advocated by the American Peter Calthorpe, a representative of New Urbanism. Guided by the definition of TOD, the form of this land use is a compact layout and with a multifunctional community centred around transit stations to encourage people to use public transportation more frequently. Rail transit is the most efficient means of public transportation. As the Chinese urban population is very large, most cities have more than one urban centre. Commercial, residential and office properties are intricately arranged in these areas, corresponding already with some rules of TOD. Because of this, it would be advantageous to promote urban development through TOD in China.

Experience in Rail Transit Transfer Connections In recent years, the following have been the main factors in rail transit systems and their transfer connections:  Slower driving and giving buses preference  Development of three dimensional transfer facilities  Proper amount of Park-and-Ride facilities (P&R) and encouraging cars to park outside the downtown area  Optimizing traffic organization and integrating buildings and stations In Tokyo, Osaka and other Japanese cities, there are no explicit rules for designing rail transit transfer hubs. It is left up to the individual cities to determine whether a traffic square, a hub which mostly functions as a

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transfer facility but at times also has some commercial uses, needs to be configured. The cities make their decisions based on the local transfer demand by ground traffic. The cities then set the share rates for the various modes of traffic by land-use type that surround the stations, designating specific functions for each. Finally, the space required by the square is calculated and the various traffic facilities are built. Rail transit is very important in Japan and the building of rail transit stations as multimodal traffic hubs and the major activity centres of a city is encouraged at the strategic level of urban planning. Also, non-motor vehicle traffic parking lots are established near all stations of an express rail transit system. Moreover, plenty of car parking lots are arranged at the periphery at urban rail stations to provide free parking for rail transfer.

STATION CLASSIFICATION AND POSITIONING The Classification of Rail Transit Stations In practice, there are four standards which define the range of transit stations. They are as follows: walking radius, function-context factor, terrain sign and development border. The walking radius is used as the standard to determine the range of the station area. This is combined with some functional judgement, that is regarding the station as the centre of a circle and walking about 500 m as the radius. Realistically, the border of a station area can never be a perfect circle by virtue of different degrees of route access. Determining a specific border will depend on the details of a particular station. At present, China has a very large population and the major means of travel are walking and bicycles, differing quite significantly from foreign TOD. The areas surrounding stations that were most affected by walking and bicycles have been researched and analysed in terms of traffic connections, functional layout, development intensity, and commercial type selection. It was found that rail stations can be divided into four types which are: public centre, traffic hub, residential community and scenery/open space. Table 1 shows the conclusions from the four major areas of research: traffic connection, functional layout, development intensity and type selection.

Medium and low-intensity Urban sightseeing places, greenbelts, squares, local special product shops, supermarkets, leisure facilities and food and beverage retail facilities and open spaces, etc.

Large commodity commerce, leisure facilities, trading and financial facilities, cultural and sports facilities, retail facilities, open spaces and city greenbelts, etc.

Large commercial finance, business, office, recreational and sports facilities, leisure facilities and food and beverage retail facilities are integrated together with the station hall.

Large commercial finance, business, office, cultural and sports facilities, leisure facilities and food and beverage retail facilities are integrated together with the station hall.

Some natural, historical and humanistic scenery resources are set surrounding a station and attract people internally and externally.

Medium-intensity

Development intensity Type selection

The external traffic hub or large indoor transfer hub is set surrounding a station, and there is very direct or direct relation between rail transit station and such traffic facilities. High and medium-intensity

Considering the transfer of buses and cars, the facilities should try to set inside or underground in combination with buildings, coordinating with the scenery property.

The surrounding areas of stations are mainly public service facilities, most of which are public buildings; the lands for public buildings occupy a high proportion and most of them are for regional service. High-intensity

Significant consideration given to the transfer demands of walking, bicycles and buses, the functions of originating and terminal stations should be configured for buses. Surrounding a station, there are mainly residential areas matched with supporting facilities.

Scenery Opening-Type

Functional layout

The transfer of cars, buses and rail transit should be integrated.

Residential Community-Type

Oriented by buses and walking, strict limits on car transfer; the junction station should be considered for bus facilities.

Traffic Hub-Type

The Classification of Rail Transit Stations.

Traffic connection

Public Centre-Type

Table 1.

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The Function of Land Use Surrounding Rail Transit Stations In terms of the different functions of land use, this study divides the five stations into four types including public centre, traffic hub, residential community, and scenery/open space. By looking at how the stations are currently being used and what plans show for their future use, Xianhe East Station and Nanjing University Station are defined as residential community-type hubs; Nanjing Normal University Station is defined as a commerce and business-type hub which aims to create a commercial and business centre for Xianlin sub-City; Nanjing Sport Institute station aims to create a commercial, business and integrated traffic hub east of Xianlin; and the Xianhe East Station is defined as a scenery-type hub and aims to creating a scenery-type node for Xianlin Affiliated City.

The Function of Rail Transit Stations In China, as elsewhere, different areas of cities will have different types of rail stations. Likewise, the style of transfer facilities will also differ according to need. Therefore, the proper classification of rail transit hubs sets a foundation for determining the scale and spatial layout of transfer facilities. As mentioned above, big differences occur among the layout structures of urban spaces, so it is of little significance to refer to the classification system of foreign urban rail transit hubs. Domestic cities tend to divide rail transit hubs into three classes including integrated or large and general hubs, while some cities subdivide large hubs according to the quantity of connecting rail lines and bus lines. Because the range of this study is the new downtown area of Xianlin, equipped only with a few rail lines, the rail transit hubs are divided into only two types according to the experience of other domestic cities; these two types are integrated and general transfer hubs. Additionally, when local differences in integrated traffic hubs are considered, those hubs are divided into traffic connection and region centre types. It is very difficult to classify rail transit hubs quantitatively, hence, this classification study is made based on the integrated consideration of functions such as station periphery, development potential and transfer demand. Integrated traffic hub: A hub located at a rail transit transfer station or a rail transit terminal station; centrally located, its service scope is very wide and expands into other cities and towns beyond the new downtown area.

Land Use and Traffic Surrounding Rail Transit Stations

Fig. 5.

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The Functional Diagram for Rail Transit.

General transfer hub: A hub which services large blocks of residential areas or industrial districts which are located near it (see Fig. 5).

THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE SURROUNDING LAYOUT AND STATION TRAFFIC Traffic Connection of Stations and Layout Key of Land Use From the above analysis, five areas are used to determine the traffic connection and layout key for land use surrounding the five stations. Those areas are station type, station positioning, recommended building floor area ratio (FAR), traffic connection and land-use functional demand. Meanwhile, multiple methods are adopted to measure the reasonable FAR range of the lands surrounding each station. Table 2 and Fig. 6 show the traffic connection, layout key of surrounding land use, and spatial

Residential communitytype

Public centretype

Scenery openingtype

Nanjing Normal University Station

Xianhe East Station

Type

Middle Xianhe Station

Station Name

Scenery and commercial service-type node of Xianlin District Centre

The commercial and business centre and symbolic node of Xianlin District Centre

Community service-type hub

Positioning

1.01.5

4.06.0

2.03.0

Recommended FAR

Considering the transfer of buses and cars, the transfer facilities should set inside or underground in combination with buildings, properly coordinating with the scenery

Oriented by buses and walking, strict limits on car transfer; the junction station should be considered for bus facilities.

Considering the significant transfer demands of walking, bicycles and buses, the functions of originating and terminal stations shall be configured for buses in combination with community planning

Traffic Connection

Urban open spaces, greenbelts and squares, local special product shops, and food and beverage retail facilities, etc.

Large commercial finance, administrative offices, culture and sports, leisure and food and beverage retail facilities, etc.

Commodity commerce, leisure facilities and cultural and sports facilities, etc.

Functional Demand

Table 2. Traffic Connections and Layout Key for Land Use Surrounding the Five Stations.

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Residential communitytype

Traffic hub-type

Nanjing University Station

Nanjing Sport Institute

The integrated transfer hub and commercial and secondary business centre

Community service-type hub

2.54.0

1.52.5

The transfer of cars, buses and rail transit should be integrated; the functions of originating and terminal stations should be configured for bus stations

Considering the significant transfer demands of walking, bicycles and buses, set the parking bay for buses to improve the parking capacity of stations Large traffic transfer facilities, commercial, cultural and sports, leisure and food and beverage facilities, etc.

The commodity commerce, cultural and sports, leisure and food and beverage retail facilities, etc.

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Fig. 6.

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The Spatial Layout Structure Concept Plan for Land Use along the Rail Line.

distribution structure of land along the spur line taking into account the current situation, land property and traffic function of a station. The Configuration Requirements of Transfer Facilities in Each Station According to the above analysis, the transfer facilities in a station are divided into two classifications: passenger access and parking. As the range of this research is in a new urban area, only transfer facilities of nonmotorized vehicles, buses and surrounding cars are considered.  A rail station must be equipped with a parking lot with shelter for nonmotorized vehicles; if possible, these covered parking lots should be placed as close as possible or adjacent to the rail station.  A rail station must be equipped with a bus stop for connecting buses and have a harbour bus stop built for multiple buses. Additionally, a large connection rail station should be equipped with a bus hub junction station or originating and terminal stations.  Connection-type terminal rail station connecting more than one rail line should be equipped with a P&R parking lot. In considering the amendments needed to bus stop and terminal planning and thoughts on the current conditions of land surrounding each station, the configuration requirements of transfer facilities in the five stations along the east spur line of No. 2 Metro Line are hereby proposed as shown in Table 3.

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Table 3. Station Type

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The Configuration of Transfer Facilities at Each Station. Station Name

Facility Configuration

Xianhe East Station

General transfer hub

Set a parking bay A few stopping points for taxis A few parking spaces for transfer (P&R) A few temporary parking spaces (K&R) Large parking lots for non-motorized vehicles

Nanjing Normal University Station

Integrated transfer hub (regional centre-type)

Large bus junction stations Set parking bays for buses A few parking lots for transfer (P&R) A few temporary parking spaces (K&R) Many stopping points for taxis A certain amount of parking lots for nonmotorized vehicles

Xianhe East Station

General transfer hub

Set parking bays for buses A few stopping points for taxis Large parking lots for transfer (P&R) A few temporary parking spaces (K&R) A few parking lots for non-motorized vehicles

Nanjing University Station

General transfer hub

Set parking bays for buses A few parking spaces for taxis and temporary parking spaces (K&R) A few parking lots for non-motorized vehicles

Nanjing Sport Institute

Integrated transfer hub (connection-type)

large bus junction stations Designated parking bays for buses Large parking lots for transfer (P&R) A few temporary parking spaces (K&R) Many stopping points for taxis A few parking lots for non-motor vehicles

Calculating the Configuration Scale of Transfer Facilities There are several steps which need to be taken in order to calculate the scale of transfer facilities to be built. There first needs to be a thorough review of the current traffic situation and plans for the land surrounding each station. Transfer demands can then be calculated based on the above-mentioned radius range for reasonable service areas for metro stations. Depending upon the transfer volume, it is then logical to determine whether a special space needs to be designated for transfer.

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Table 4. The Scale of Transfer Facilities at Each Station. Station Name

Peak Passenger Flow (2020)

Scale Configuration of Transfer Facilities Bus Station

Nanjing Sport Institute

7,000

Nanjing University Station

1,500

7,000 m2 (junction station) Parking bay

Xianhe East Station

2,000

Parking bay

Nanjing Normal University Station

3,500

Middle Xianhe Station

4,000

4,000 m2(junction station) Parking bay

Car Parking

Bicycle Parking

400 cars (9,000– 1,600 bicycles 10,500 m2) (2,500 m2) (As the 300 bicycles (500 supporting m2) facility) 200 cars (6,000– 200 bicycles (300 7,000 m2) m2) 100 cars (3,000– 700 bicycles 3,500 m2) (1,000 m2) 100 cars (3,000– 1,300 bicycles 3,500 m2) (2,000 m2)

If the transfer volume is low and there is no special land for construction of transfer space, transfers should be carried out on the roadside, near the station. Otherwise, special transfer space for non-motorized vehicles, buses, taxis and cars must be constructed. To calculate the space especially for transfer, first, the percentage of the various traffic modes by the transfer volume of rail and ground traffic should be determined and then the corresponding facility scale required by non-motorized vehicles, buses, taxis and cars, etc. should be determined. As Xianlin district is well known for being a university town, forecasting the scale of bicycle transfers, by studying the surrounding residents, students in colleges and universities and the characteristics of their daily travel should be considered first (Table 4).

CONCLUSIONS This study of the integrated connection between land use and transport surrounding rail transit stations will act as a guide to help scientifically arrange the building of essential transfer facilities and help cities to make better use of the scarce amount of urban land available for development. This study has also shown that the transport system plays an important part in adjusting the functional layout of land use surrounding rail transit

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stations. The results of this study will be particularly significant in the integration between urban planning management and transport management. Furthermore, the coordinated interaction between land-use planning, traffic planning, and urban design will benefit Chinese cities as they continue to grow throughout the 21st century and beyond.

NOTE 1. As the No. 2 Metro Line was launched into operation, the names of the five stations covered in this study have been adjusted to better reflect the actual use and locations of the stations. The original names: Middle Xianhe Station, Nanjing Normal University Station, Xianhe East Station, Nanjing University Station and Nanjing Sport Institute have been renamed Xueze Road Station, Xianlin Centre Station, University of Chinese Medicine-Yangshan Park Station, Nanjing University Xianlin Campus Station and Jingtian Road Station.

REFERENCES Bian, J. W. (2006). The space development and trail transit of metropolises. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press. Hui, Y. (2002). The study of station area planning and construction of urban rail transit. Urban Planning Forum, 2, 30–33. Pan, H. X., & Ren, C. Y. (2005). The space coupling relation between rail transit and urban public activity centre system: Taking Shanghai for the example. Urban Planning Forum, 4, 76–82. Shen, L. X., & Tan, G. T. (2006). The analysis about urban rail transit’s influences on surrounding tenement. Urban Mass Transit, 4, 49–55.

SECTION 4 FREIGHT AND LOGISTICS

CHAPTER 14 LOGISTICS AND THE CITY: THE KEY ISSUE OF FREIGHT VILLAGES Xiaoming LIU and Michel SAVY ABSTRACT Purpose – The aim of the chapter is to explore the link between logistics and territory, particularly at local scale with ‘freight villages’. This topic is a matter for transport economics and management as well as for urban and regional planning. Methodology – The methodology of this research relies on the exploitation of existing limited literature and on a practical field experience, using contact with professionals as well as with local authorities, comparing logistics regional planning in China and France. The process of conception, building and operation of logistics premises and areas is analysed, identifying the private and public actors who take part to it, and the rationales guiding their actions. Results and perspectives – The necessity to insert logistics into its spatial environment obeys evolving concerns: in an initial phase, the aim is mere quantitative growth of production, trade and freight; today, logistics facilities must contribute to the search for sustainable development. The exchange of experience and of best practices, linked with academic

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 297–318 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003016

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observation, feeds the continuation of research on this seldom-addressed topic. Keywords: Logistics, freight villages, freight transport, regional planning

INTRODUCTION Freight transport is no longer operated as an isolated operation or business. It is currently included within a broader logistics process, of which it remains a major item or even the core. Complementarily to dynamic logistics operations (i.e. transport), static logistics operations (handling, storing, packaging, etc.) tend to take place in specific premises (warehouses, depots, etc.) located in appropriate areas. These areas are commonly called freight villages. Surprisingly, very little scientific literature is devoted to freight villages although freight transport, being essentially a spatial industry, its economic analysis cannot ignore the places where it is generated and received. This issue is all the more important as freight villages are now a concern of public urban and regional planning, and are therefore at the interface of private business and public policy. After putting forward definitions and basic concepts concerning freight villages, this chapter will tackle the way freight villages are produced, as a result of a complex interaction of various public and private agents. A typology of freight villages will show the variety of situations this notion can encompass. Pros and cons of such dedicated areas, in comparison with scattered unorganised locations of logistics activities, will be addressed. Pursuing this spatial approach, two apparently contradictory tendencies will be identified: polarisation of freight villages in major harbours and main metropolitan areas on the one hand, and suburbanisation away from city centres on the other hand. Finally, freight villages appear as a key element of real estate and third party logistics business as well as being on the urban and regional planning agenda, giving a new format to freight transport management and evolution. The comparison of European and Chinese experience in this field will prove fruitful as, in spite of a radical difference in the respective paces of evolution, the same problems and the same search for solutions can be identified in the two contexts. Exchange of analysis can thus feed a useful exchange of best practices.

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FREIGHT TRANSPORT AND THE LOCATION OF LOGISTICS Logistics is a core function in contemporary economics. It is the control and operation of the physical flows of goods, for the purposes of production, distribution, consumption and, finally, for the return of waste (see Fig. 1). It is therefore necessary for all activities and in all countries. Logistics is often defined in terms of its generic aims (‘To make available proper goods, in good condition, at the right place and the right time, at lowest cost), which is not a substantive definition. From the abundant literature, two concepts emerge. On the one hand, logistics can be seen as a series of physical operations, applied to goods to complement the manufacturing process: transport, warehousing, handling, packaging, etc. These operations are acts of production: they use materials, for example by consuming energy intensely and transform goods physically by changing their position in space and time, making them available for suitable uses. The boundary with manufacturing is sometimes blurred, when logistics operations are mixed with postponed customisation or conditioning of products or with the repair of durable goods. On the other hand, logistics is a method of running a firm and the relationships between firms (supply chain management). Logistics is a function in an organisation, relying on specific tools for flow monitoring and control (including operational research models or management software

production management manufacturing

distribution

supply after-sales

raw materials

sale

consumption

recycling waste

elimination processing

Fig. 1. Transport and Logistics as a Comprehensive Production Cycle. Note: Transport and logistics operations take place all through the manufacturing/ consumption/return cycle. Source: Savy (2006a).

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packages), so it has become a branch of management science alongside finance, marketing, etc. Logistics appeared as a new concern in industry and trade around the 1970s, representing a previously neglected field of progress by comparison with manufacturing, at a time when flexible modes of production were starting to replace the mass production ‘fordist’ model. It enabled the rationalisation of flows and inventories in the whole production process, both reducing unproductive assets and improving flexibility according to a ‘just-in-time’ pattern. Logistics represents about 10% of total economic production and employment in developed countries, even more in countries which suffer from low productivity. In many branches, the added value of logistics is comparable to the added value of manufacturing. Logistics costs can be split between transport (54% of total average logistics cost), warehousing and handling (26%) and administrative, data processing and financial expenses (20%).1 Of course, these average proportions vary significantly from one case to another, based on the value density of goods, the shipment size (from parcels to massive bulk quantities), and the distance transported, etc. Transport remains, by far, the most important component of logistics. On the other hand, transport is no longer operated and managed as an isolated operation and business; it is part of a more complex, integrated logistics process. Just like transport, logistics is divided between outsourced and in-house operations. The proportion of outsourcing varies among logistics activities: it is generally high for transport, it is moderate but rising for warehousing and handling, but it remains low for other physical operations (packaging) and even lower for management operations (order processing, purchasing, inventory control, etc.). Logistics is also therefore the name of an emerging new industry, grouping previously separate activities and including carriers, freightforwarders and other logistics service providers (third party logistics suppliers: 3PL) as well as logistics real estate. Not surprisingly, most big logistics service providers originate from the transport sector, even if they now tend to subcontract haulage to other companies. For the moment, this new industry does not coincide with existing administrative, professional or statistical data categories and it is sometimes difficult to gather and consolidate relevant data covering this somewhat heterogeneous topic. Just like transport, logistics is essentially a spatial activity and its aim is to link geographically separated activities (for production or consumption). Transport haulage, on the one hand, and freight terminals, on the other

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hand (warehouses, depots, sorting facilities, etc.), are the arches and nodes of logistics networks. Whether internal to ‘shippers’ (in the transport vocabulary these are manufacturers, retailers and other activities generating flows of products) or outsourced to dedicated subcontractors, logistics activities often take place in specific premises (warehouses, depots, terminals, etc.) and at specific sites. These nodes of logistics networks have become prominent for access to and from major economic centres. Results from surveys of French shippers show that more than half the shipments, today, go through one sort of logistics terminal or another (distribution centre, cross-dock terminal, or warehouse) before leaving or before entering a metropolitan area. This figure was less than one-third fifteen years ago (Dablanc & Routhier, 2009). The construction of warehouses was particularly intense during the 1980s; it has, since then, followed a sustained rhythm, in spite of fluctuations linked with the business cycle. The average size of new warehouses is increasing regularly and instead of locating in a dispersed isolated way, a growing proportion of them are located in logistics parks, particularly on the outskirts of metropolitan areas. These parks are generally called ‘freight villages’ in English. A freight village is called ‘plate-forme logistique’ in France, ‘interporto’ in Italy, ‘Gu¨terverkehrszentrum’ in Germany, ‘wuliu zhongxin’ in China, etc. These industrial zones contribute to territorial organisation and functioning and are necessarily part of current regional and urban planning. There are many planning documents and consulting reports devoted to freight villages but little academic literature. That is the subject of this chapter.

FREIGHT VILLAGES: DEFINITION The difference between a freight village and a logistics centre should be made clear: a logistics centre is a logistics facility, which can be isolated or located close to similar facilities, that is in a freight village. A freight village is an industrial park mainly devoted to logistics activities. It is the location of several different users, who share infrastructure and some services. Therefore, such villages are sometimes described as public, in contrast to sites belonging to or used by only one firm. Occupiers usually belong to a variety of sectors: manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, third party logistics suppliers, but may also include packaging companies, freight forwarders and carriers, plus commercial and administrative services (ranging from a filling station, a hotel and a restaurant to a post office, a customs office,

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etc.). Their nearness makes cooperation easier and less costly; a freight village is a specialised logistics cluster. The difference between a freight village and an industrial park is not always strict, as many such sites include manufacturing as well as logistics activities, adjacent to each other. In addition, some manufacturing processes may be postponed and carried out by logistics service suppliers inside their own premises, and reciprocally industrial plants commonly include some logistics facilities and operations. Generally speaking, an industrial park is defined according to its predominant fabrication function (even though it receives inputs and dispatches outputs), whereas a freight village is defined according to its connection function (although a static added value, were it only sorting, is incorporated into products). A freight village may have been deliberately built for that purpose, which is generally the case nowadays, or it may happen to be so, de facto, when logistics activities occupy most of an industrial zone that had not necessarily been scheduled for that specialisation. If several types of transport infrastructure are available (rail and/or waterway and sea, possibly air, in addition to road), the site is said to be ‘multimodal’. The two notions of multimodal terminal and freight village are often confused. A multimodal terminal is a transhipment facility to transfer goods (or multimodal units such as containers or swap bodies) from one mode of transport to another. Its site, for example a railway yard, may also be suitable for locating some logistics activities nearby. But the aim of rail-road transport, for example, is precisely to make the use of railway possible for activities that do not have a direct siding at their disposal and are located at some distance from a terminal. Reciprocally, a logistics village may benefit from a multimodal access, but many sites can only be served by road, the connection to rail or waterway being technically much more difficult and more costly, or even impossible. This is particularly the case in Western Europe where road haulage dominates inland transport. Contrary to what is often written, freight villages and intermodal terminals do not necessarily go together. A sophisticated know-how has been developed, covering planning, designing, financing, operating and managing such facilities. Specialised professional bodies exist now, in charge of these various dimensions of freight villages. Both public and private sectors are involved in such projects, with different positions and roles. The public sector has strong control over spatial planning and regulation (Hesse, 2004): municipal authorities issue building permits whereas the state administration issues the permits to operate if the building fulfils strict safety regulations. The public

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operator

Infrastructure

investor developer Premises (plant, warehouse) Site (freight village)

Fig. 2.

Infrastructure

local authorities State regulators land owners planners site developers

shipper

consutlants builders suppliers facility managers

sector can also be directly active in developing a site (through an appropriate structure such as a public capital company), purchasing the land from land owners (sometimes using a compulsory purchase procedure), and then equipping it before selling it to developers or to final investors. The private sector is divided into several professional layers, including developers, investors, and operators plus specialised consultants, architects, builders, equipment providers, facility managers, etc. In Fig. 2, the vertical axis goes from public to private actors and from a long-lasting involvement to a more short-term and foot-loose relationship with the territory: public authorities, once they decided to build a freight village, will have to deal with it indefinitely, whereas an investor can lay out his capital for a decade, obtaining a lease from the tenant operator (e.g. for 3, 6 or 9 years according to French law), who commonly has a one year contract with his shipper customer. Of course, freight villages are not all alike. Their location, size and layout mainly depend on the functions they fulfil. These are related to the type of goods which are shipped and the corresponding territory, in terms of the origins and the destinations of the flows. Most freight villages are devoted to trade and distribution rather than to fabrication, given the location of industrial supply stocks depends more closely on the location of plants, while return logistics has also its own rationale and organisation. Most logistics parks actually link two types of flows and territories. They are the interface of two uneven catchment areas, as they can receive massive long distance flows and then distribute them locally, or conversely collect local consignments to send them away, etc.

Actors Involved in a Freight Village Project. Source: Savy (2006a).

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The following list is not exhaustive, and names the main types observed in Europe:  International trade centres: they receive manufactured goods from abroad (often by sea) and distribute them to regional warehouses throughout Europe. They are generally located inside or in the vicinity of an international harbour. The volume and consolidation of traffic in such nodes allows, along the corridors leading to them, the use of heavy inland transport modes (rail and waterway) in connection with maritime transport. Therefore, these villages are also multimodal terminals.  National stocks, belonging to manufacturers, wholesalers or large retailers: they feed regional trade.  Regional distribution centres: receiving goods from national stocks or from import traders, they serve retail shops, small or large (hypermarkets). In the case of cross-docking, they only dispatch commodities but do not stock them at all. Some are operated by manufacturers, some by retailers (or by their logistics branch), and others by third party logistics suppliers. They are usually located in the outskirts of big cities, thus serving a nearby market.  Parcel service terminals (B2B (business to business) and B2C (business to customers)): they are also frequently part of freight villages. Due to the general trend to fragmentation of many shipments (and thus a decline in full truck loading), the parcel service represents a growing portion of road haulage. It is also fostered by the development of home delivery and of e-commerce.  In addition, attention is currently being devoted to the ultimate link of the chain going down to the final consignee. Professionals and public decision makers are trying to develop an additional new type of intra-urban facility, as we shall see later. But, being small, such sites do not deserve to be called freight ‘villages’ (they are really logistics ‘cottages’). In fact, most villages show a mixed profile as they host more than one type of logistics. The variety of neighbour locations can even contribute to the success of the site, if cooperation can be established between complementary firms. One notices that the typology is organised according to a spatial hierarchy, going from large (even global) scale to local. Usually, the sites linked with a large catchment area are also bigger than the local ones. All these types of freight villages raise different problems for local authorities, in order to place them into the urban fabric through appropriate planning processes.

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FREIGHT VILLAGE FUNCTIONS Not all logistics activities will locate in a freight village if they are functionally linked with a given industrial site (e.g. a manufacturing plant or quarry) or do not need to go through a warehouse, for example raw materials handled, stocked and carried in bulk quantities that require a specific depot, or hazardous goods demanding special safety measures. Many of these remain in-house activities (they are not outsourced to 3PL). Reverse logistics is in itself a specific sector, which consists of collecting and processing waste so as to extract all remaining material or energy value from it, and is generally located in separate facilities and zones. Altogether, a growing proportion of locations occur inside freight villages. Consequently, a growing proportion of traffic is also generated and received by such areas (in France, in 2005, more than 40% of domestic freight transport, measured in ton-kilometres, had its origin or destination in such a zone). The concentration of logistics activities in a freight village has advantages and drawbacks, which practitioners and politicians take into consideration in their decision makings. The key issue for public planners and decision makers is to determine the appropriate trade-off between the pros and cons of such facilities. The major argument supporting a freight village project, frequently sufficing to counterbalance all other problems, is the creation of jobs (with corresponding fiscal resources for the local administration) and, more generally, the contribution to regional development. New concerns can strengthen the links between a freight village and its social, economic and political territory, involving both employers and employees. In the labour market, employers frequently complain about a risk of shortage in recruitment, of insufficient stability or the qualifications of the manpower. The concentration of employers may, on the one hand, exhaust local resources, or fuel rising competition among employers to attract employees. It may, on the other hand, structure individual and collective know-how that is transmitted from firm to firm and makes profits for the whole area. A suitable initial and continuing professional training organisation, awarding various levels of qualification working with surrounding education institutions, is a key input to such a development, joining social and economic aims. A freight village generates more traffic moving people by private car than by lorries carrying freight! Passenger transport is another problem, considering the access to working places, as a long distance daily shuttle deters many low wage employees from going to remote work places if they have to bear the cost of using a private car. Grouping logistics firms at a

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single pole provides the necessary critical mass to set up public transit, adapted to atypical working hours that are frequent in logistics. An appropriate housing policy, tightening the links between the different dimensions of urban planning, is an important complementary topic. The presence of a large number of firms and of jobs in the same site also makes it more attractive for employees, if they can find such useful daily services as a medical centre, a multi-firm canteen, various shops, etc. Freight villages are major points of generation, reception and transhipment of freight flows. They are therefore key elements to be considered in the framework of a transport policy, particularly in today’s strategy for a more sustainable type of transport, consuming less energy and emitting less pollution and green house effect gases. The consolidation of freight is necessary to limit the use of road haulage to short distances and to develop a long distance alternative using low energy consuming solutions (rail, waterway, intermodal transport), which all require large shipments to be efficient. Regrouping shippers and consignees in the same area gives consolidation a better chance. In that case, the freight village is multimodal. Consequently, adequate sites, served by several types of infrastructure with suitable technical conditions, must be preserved for logistics, rather than wealthier activities (offices, housing, etc.) that could outbid logistics in the competition for land and force it out of the city. Adequate urban planning is the condition for such a policy, setting mandatory functions for crucial nodes in the territory. Freight villages are therefore anything but an exogenous object, merely imposed on a territory. Their design, implementation and acceptance are the result of an intense relationship between the private and public sectors, economic and socio-political aims and rationales, the logistics industry and territory, sometimes based on formal negotiation (top-down and bottom-up) to elaborate satisfying trade-offs between pros and cons of such facilities.

FREIGHT VILLAGES, TERRITORY AND URBAN LOGISTICS Logistics is a spatial industry, and its relationship with territory can be analysed at different scales, from local up to global. Freight villages are located neither randomly nor uniformly in a given territory but according to a specific rationale: the typology of villages interacts with the diversity of space. Villages are concentrated in certain places and are absent from others: obviously, industrial supply stocks will be

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located in industrial regions and sometimes in contact with a given important manufacturing plant; international trade freight villages will be close to or inside maritime ports or airport areas (air transport carries about 30% of world international trade in terms of value), distribution centres will be close to consumption markets, etc. For inland logistics two main trends can be identified. These are formally contradictory (one resulting in concentration, the other one in dispersion) but in fact they refer to two different geographical scales and are quite compatible or even complementary: at the large (continental) scale, a polarisation in or around main metropolitan areas; at the local (regional) scale, a trend of suburbanisation. Freight villages as such contribute to both trends: on the one hand, the scarcity of land and its control by planning authorities are particularly strong in metropolitan areas, and explicitly designated areas are often the only possible locations for logistics activities; on the other hand, being of large size, generating obvious local nuisances and requiring a direct connection with trunk roads and possibly railways or waterways, these locate in the outskirts rather than in the centre of modern cities. Therefore, the proportion of logistics activities locating in freight villages grows when the size of the city increases (an independent location is frequent in a small or medium town, whereas most locations focus on logistics centres in large metropolises). Fig. 3 shows how this trend can be observed all over Europe. As Fig. 4 shows, it also takes place in such a different context as China. Hesse (2008) and Cidell (2010) have also found evidence for such phenomena in Germany and the United States. The maps show that Western Europe and China are approximately the same size, that logistics locations in Europe are concentrated around main metropolitan areas and along a few freight corridors and that China plans to develop a comprehensive network of freight villages, divided into a national and a regional layer. The reasons for polarisation of logistics around metropolitan areas are numerous: a metropolis is an important market for logistics in order to serve metropolitan activities and its population and to dispatch its production; it is generally the centre of an important region also deserving logistics services; big cities are generally the nodes of transport infrastructure and benefit from good access; logistics is a labour-intensive industry, and logistics activities require abundant suitable manpower in the vicinity; finally, the real estate market is more active and reliable than in a small city, etc. (Hesse, 2004). Consequently, freight village location models itself on the urban structure of a country and, reciprocally, influences it by strengthening the long-lasting tendency towards polarisation of activities and population

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Fig. 3. Main Logistics Clusters in Europe. Source: Duong, Philippe Samarcande, Paris (2012).

around main metropolitan areas, benefitting from economies of agglomeration (Savy, 1995; Hesse & Rodrigue, 2004). In several countries, the development of logistics facilities is included in a national policy or a planning scheme, aiming at keeping a balance between regions and reinforcing the location of modern activities in suitably large cities.

Logistics and the City: Freight Villages

Fig. 4.

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Main Logistics Clusters in China. Source: National Development and Reform Commission (2009).

Logistics is massively urban, at least at one end of its transportation chain if not all along it. Though, logistics has long been neglected in urban planning and management studies and policies (most attention being given to passenger transport, either public or by private car) (Dablanc, 2007) it nevertheless is a crucial function for the economic activity of a city as well as for the everyday life of its inhabitants: urban freight represents about 20% of urban traffic (in terms of vehicle-kilometre), 30% of street occupancy and up to 50% of energy consumption and pollution of urban transport as a whole (LET et al., 2006). This lack of awareness is no longer valid, for example ‘logistics’ is one of the 10 keywords put forward at the entrance of the recent exhibition ‘10 Projects for the Greater Paris’ (Paris, November 2009). All major Chinese cities elaborate projects that include freight terminals in their urban planning.

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Compared with logistics facilities located in industrial or rural environments, urban logistics shows strong specificities as it must come to a compromise with the scarcity and fragility of space and with a dense local population. Technically, the issue of ‘the last mile’ (i.e. the conditions in which final delivery can be made) often influences the entire transport chain of the goods, particularly the choice of the mode of transport (road, rail, etc.). At this scale, the striking phenomenon is not concentration but, on the contrary, the growing distance between city centres and logistics locations. From an urban viewpoint, two opposite risks must be avoided. One is to allow logistics to locate anywhere without sufficient control, scattered within the city without regard for the neighbourhood, environment, noise, safety, traffic conditions, etc. The other one is to expel logistics far out of the city, due to political pressure or to high land prices. Peripheral location of logistics makes the development of comprehensive urban activities and urban consumption more difficult and costly, due to longer pick-up and delivery transport legs and more pollution and traffic. Allowing for adequate trade-offs between advantages and drawbacks, room for logistics must be made in urban master plans. For the time being, both dangers exist. Urban sprawl also comprises logistics sprawl. Fig. 5 shows that, from 1980 to 2004, warehouse building took place in more and more remote periphery of the Paris metropolitan area. Dablanc and Rakotonarivo (2009) have calculated that cross-dock terminals for parcel and express transport companies had moved an average of 10 kilometres away from the centre of Paris between 1975 and 2008, while jobs had moved only 2 kilometres. The same trend can be seen in the Beijing case (Fig. 6): new logistics facilities are located in the successive rings around the capital city and connected to the road network. But the pace is different: logistics development in China is taking place both later and quicker than in Europe. Freight villages are necessarily large areas, in order to provide economies of scale and scope, and cannot therefore be inserted in the heart of urban and metropolitan areas (even in the case of vertical logistics buildings, which exist in Japan, Hong Kong, etc.). They remain at the fringe of the core area or further away. Complementary more intra-urban logistics facilities are therefore needed and have to be designed and built. Several ideas have been tested in the search for innovative solutions: ‘logistics shops’ (small, cornerof-the-street facilities), parcel service terminals (on the ground floor of an urban building likely to shelter a light cross-docking or parcel activity), etc. These new transhipment points are supplied with large efficient vehicles and allow small non-polluting vehicles to carry out the ‘last mile’ haulage. Consignments can also be picked up and delivered in a relay (using a local shop) where final customers bring and fetch them; automated self-service

1980-1984

1985-1989

1990-1994

1995-1999

2000-2004

2005-2009

SHON (m²) d'entrepôts Surfaces Hors Oeuvre Nette (SHON) commencées cumulées 310 721 182 140

Limites administratives Departements Communes

74 409 12 164

Sources : Sitadel, et Sit@del2, MEEDDM/SOeS. Route500, IGN, 2007

Fig. 5.

0

25 50 km

Françoise Bahoken, IFSTTAR, 2011

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Warehouse Building Permits, Paris Metropolitan Area, 19802009. Source: Fremont (2012).

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Fig. 6.

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Main Logistics Recent Developments in the Beijing Metropolitan Area. Source: Xiaoming (2007).

lockers are another solution, etc. Architects have elaborated a ‘logistics townhouse’ concept, likely to be accepted inside the city core, where logistics is organised on several floors so as to alleviate the burden of the land price, and shares the premises with other, compatible activities (workshops, light industry, offices or even housing). City logistics depends not only on physical facilities: it constitutes an entire system and its improvement deserves an adequate comprehensive policy, combining ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ components: regulation of local traffic and of parking conditions, physical equipment and management of public space, support for urban logistics facilities, exchange of best practices at international level, experiment and research, etc. The consequences of these trends are a growing concern for logistics in territorial planning. Regional planning has always paid attention to transport infrastructure and to industrial location. But logistics was long considered as a fatal (dependent) activity, the development of which did not deserve to be supported given it would necessarily follow the development of

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manufacturing industry. The appearance of an exogenous logistics sector, processing flows of goods without an immediate relationship with local production, together with the understanding that, in some cases, production follows logistics, made planners change their mind. Logistics is now an entire chapter of national and regional development plans. A comparable change occurred at urban level. The fact that logistics flows, if badly managed, hamper urban economics and the quality of life convinced urban politicians that a new dedicated policy was necessary. After they acquired necessary information and know-how, city logistics public policy, in cooperation with involved professionals, is leaving the stage of experiments and is becoming a field of actual projects and achievements (Dablanc, 2010).

DYNAMICS AND PERSPECTIVES The relationship between logistics and territory is quickly evolving and a retrospective chronological analysis can be specified to identify the general dynamic of the topics. A comparison between Europe and China, in spite of obvious contrasts, helps in identifying main drivers and tendencies. The contexts are very dissimilar, and are not themselves homogeneous either. The two contexts evolve at different rhythms but face comparable questions, such as the reluctance of some populations and local governments regarding logistics (preferring offices, housing, shopping malls or high tech manufacturing to warehousing), the lack of land for such huge industrial parks that are freight villages, resulting in the tendency to expel logistics too far away from metropolitan area core. Chinese as well as European cities have to combine industrial location policy and transport policy. This link is always difficult to implement, all the more so as it involves several scales of territory and various political institutions need to coordinate (from the technical, management and political viewpoints): hence the international, national, regional and urban scales all interact. In Europe and particularly in France, the notion of freight villages appeared in the vocabulary of academic research, state administration and professional organisations as early as the 1960s (even though such configurations have existed de facto for centuries: harbours, freight railway stations, etc. have always been proto-freight villages). This innovation coincided with a period of fast economic growth and of rapid urbanisation, when zoning methods were popular among planners and when the growth of manufacturing industry took place with the help of the construction of ‘industrial parks’. At this time, a freight village was a particular type of industrial park. In following years, the

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economic mood shifted and the aims of regional planning and of transport policy changed, but the notion of freight village went on receiving more interest although some concerns also evolved. In Europe, attempts to elaborate a national master plan for logistics achieved variable success from one country to another. There have been several schemes, reports and propositions to governments. Few were implemented entirely as comprehensive programmes, but several projects within them were built, one by one (in contrast, the Italian plan for ‘interporti’ was finalised gradually). Several reasons can be put forward to explain this fact. One is that, in a market-driven economy, logistics mainly belongs to the private business realm, in spite of its strong (and ever stronger) social dimensions. The other is political decentralisation, giving broad responsibility to regions, provinces and cities concerning territorial planning, that occurred in various ways in various European countries. Central government can no longer impose its arbitrage without discussion, dealing with logistics as with other topics, and the fact that a freight village is often said to be ‘multimodal’ is not enough to change this point. On the contrary, one observes a number of schemes and implementations at the local level. Regions and provinces have elaborated their own master plans for logistics, promoting new promising projects but also avoiding useless overlapping competing sites, and they frequently included them in the contracts they negotiated with the central government (under a co-decision and co-financing process). China shows a more recent but more rapid story. As elsewhere, logistics areas have always existed but taking special care in their development is recent. The typical first big operation was the Pinghu Shenzhen China Logistics Base, on a vast area of 1,643 ha, in 1998. This first project was followed by many others, particularly in the most advanced coastal regions. The plan established under the responsibility of the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, covering the 11th five year plan (2006–2010), mentions that special efforts must be made to develop modern logistics. Then, most provinces and big cities elaborated their own plans according to this national direction. More recently, the Adjustment of Modern Logistics Industry and Rejuvenation Plan (2009) set a nationwide list comprising nine areas (not corresponding to administrative districts) identified as national logistics priorities, 21 big cities identified as national logistics nodes and 17 other cities as regional logistics nodes. Logistics is now an explicit topic in regional and urban planning. The comparison of Chinese and European sites shows conspicuous differences. Chinese freight villages generally cover vaster areas (measured in square kilometres, whereas European ones are measured in dozens of

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hectares), they are often undertaken by State-owned companies while in Europe, development and investment mostly belong to private capital; they also include a non- negligible proportion of manufacturing, rather than just strictly logistics activities. In spite of these differences, a resemblance can be observed concerning the dynamics of freight village development. Three main phases can be identified, which exist in both contexts: initial growth, introduction of planning and the search for sustainability. The initial growth phase of freight villages takes place during a period of rapid development of economic activity and of logistics. In order to reduce the shortage of capacity, a strong requirement for vacant space for expansion explains the construction of necessary sites (industrial parks, freight villages). Without yet being part of a comprehensive policy, they benefit from the support of local authorities and possibly from public subsidies or the involvement of public capital (to acquire the land and equip it before selling it to private investors). If the main aim during this launching period is a quantitative expansion of logistics, a concern for the rationalisation of logistics process, in particular of pick-up and delivery rounds, is already appearing and legitimises some projects. The introduction of planning occurs as critical analysis of existing experiences. The first phase of rapid spread results in useful construction but also in several mistakes: badly designed equipment, empty sites responding to little demand, overcapacity or needless competition between nearby facilities, excessive sprawl away from city centres, difficulties in use of alternative transport modes, etc. Public authorities at higher levels intervene to tidy up the situation. Planning appears as necessary, at various echelons of geographic scales and of political institutions. This is all the more necessary as freight villages face a growing criticism among the population and local elected representatives. It is possible to move towards sustainable logistics? Logistics is, simultaneously, considered as more necessary than ever and as requiring more care than ever in its development. It generates nuisances but also numerous workers’ jobs that are not likely to be off-shored; it contributes to added value. It must also fit into a general policy aimed at diminishing fossil energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission, and more generally reducing negative external effects on the population. The development of logistics sites is intensive rather than extensive and furthermore, qualitative rather than quantitative. For the first generation of warehouses, obsolescence arises from the technology and from the regulation viewpoints. A regeneration of existing freight villages is appearing, together with the creation of new villages, composed of high environmental performance

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buildings, etc. These issues are particularly sensitive in urban, densely inhabited, areas. Yet, urban logistics is still managed in an archaic way and is a vast field ripe for innovation and progress. New methods of planning still have to be invented, both top-down and bottom-up, in order to cope with the environmental, economic and social dimensions of logistics development.

CONCLUSIONS Freight villages are an important element of to-day’s transport system. Receiving and generating a growing portion of total traffic, affecting the everyday life of the population as well as international trade, they affect transport and logistics development. Their nature is complex: they contribute to the merger of various professions (including transport and freightforwarding, warehousing, inventory management and distribution, etc.) into a new logistics industry, including its real estate component; they are in the same time an infrastructure and an organisation; they associate public and private sectors, political as well as business approaches; they pertain to transport as well as to regional and urban planning. The scientific approach to them may come within the competence of economists, geographers, etc. The need for freight villages, together with the difficulty of introducing them into the urban structure, emphasises the necessity to take production activities into account more than previously when considering urban development. A city is not only a place to live in, to move around in, to consume, etc. It is also a place to work, when transport and logistics are the circulation part of the production process. Today, new concerns and dynamics are occurring throughout the world. An initial phase of growth of a new activity (logistics) and of new dedicated sites (freight villages) is reaching its limits. The first generation of premises and sites must receive radical renovation. A need for more sophisticated solutions and for sustainable logistics becomes apparent, considering social, environmental, urban elements more than ever before. A new chapter of the young history of freight villages, and therefore of the old history of transport, is starting to be written.

NOTE 1. These figures are only orders of magnitude. They result from the compilation of various professional sources and websites, such as the State of Logisics Report of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), UnitedLog and an enquiry of the French Logisticians Association (ASLOG) among its members in 2010.

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REFERENCES China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, China Society of Logistics. (2009). China logistics parks. Hong Kong: China Logistics Publishing House. Cidell, J. (2010). Concentration and decentralisation: The new geography of freight distribution in US metropolitan areas. Journal of Transport Geography, 18, 363–371. Dablanc, L. (2007). Goods transport in large European cities: Difficult to organize, difficult to modernize. Transportation Research A, 41, 280–285. Dablanc, L. (2010). Freight transport, a key for urban economies, Guidelines for practitioners. Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting, 14–17 January 2010, Washington, DC. Dablanc, L., & Rakotonarivo, D. (2009). The impacts of logistic sprawl: How does the location of parcel transport terminals affect the energy efficiency of goods’ movements in Paris and what can we do about it? In E. Taniguchi & R. G. Thompson (Eds.), Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, The Sixth International Conference on City Logistics, (Vol. 2, pp. 6087–6096). Dablanc, L., & Routhier, J.-L. (2009). La partie urbaine de la chaıˆ ne de transport, premiers enseignements tire´s de l’enqueˆte ECHO. In M. Guilbault (Ed.), Enqueˆte ) ECHO * – Les apports des enqueˆtes chargeurs pour la connaissance des chaıˆnes de transport de marchandises et de leurs de´terminants logistiques, Actes no 121 (pp. 167–174). Arcueil: Les Collections de l’INRETS. Fremont, A., (2012). Quel roˆle pour le fleuve dans le Grand Paris des marchandises? L’Espace ge´ographique, 3, 236–251.. Hesse, M. (2004). Land for logistics: Locational dynamics, real estate markets and political regulation of regional distribution complexes. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 95(2), 162–173. Hesse, M (2008). The city as a terminal: The urban context of logistics and freight transport. Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing Company. Hesse, M., & Rodrigue, J.-P. (2004). The transport geography of logistics and freight distribution. Journal of Transport Geography, 12, 171–184. LET - Aria Technologies - Systems Consult. (2006). Mise en place d’une me´thodologie pour un bilan environnemental physique du transport de marchandises en ville, consommation, e´missions, qualite´ de l’air. Lyon: ADEME, CERTU. National Development and Reform Commission. (2009). Adjustment of modern logistics industry and rejuvenation plan. Beijing, China. Savy, M. (1995). Morphologie et ge´ographie des re´seaux logistiques. In M. Savy & P. Veltz (Eds.), E´conomie globale et re´invention du local. La Tour d’Aigues: E´ditions de l’aube. Savy, M (2006a). Logistique et territoire. Paris: La Documentation franc- aise. Xiaoming, L. (2007). La logistique de la re´gion pe´kinoise. Master thesis. Universite´ de Paris-Est, Paris.

FURTHER READING Ballis, A. (2006). Freight villages: Warehouse design and rail link aspects. Transportation Research Record, 1966, 27–33. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, China Society of Logistics. (2009). China logistics parks. Hong Kong: China Logistics Publishing House.

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Kapros, S., Panou, K., & Tsamboulas, D. (2005). Multicriteria approach to the evaluation of intermodal freight villages. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1906. Marcucci, E. & Danielis, R. (2006). Centri Urbani di Distribuzione delle merci e Politiche di Traffico: una Valutazione Empirica tramite le Preferenze Dichiarate. XXVII Conferenza Scientifica Annuale dell’AISRe, Mercati locali del lavoro come reti. Meidute´, I. (2005). Comparative analysis of the definitions of logistics centres. Transport, 20(3), 106–110. Regan, A., & Golog, T. (2005). Trucking industry demand for urban shared use freight terminals. Transportation, 32, 23–36. Savy, M. (1984). Production des transports, production de l’espace, in Re´gions et transport de marchandisesParis: La Documentation franc- aise. Savy, M. (2006b). Le transport de marchandises. Paris: E´ditions d’Organisation. Savy, M. (2007). Transport management as a key logistics issue. In F.-L. Perret,, C. Jaffeux & M. Fender (Eds.), Essentials of logistics and management (2nd ed.). Lausanne: EPFL Press. Savy, M. (Ed.). (2009). Questions clefs pour le transport en Europe. Paris: La Documentation franc- aise. Taniguchi, E., Noritake, M., Yamada, T., & Izumitani, T. (1999). Optimal size and location planning of public logistics terminals. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 35(3), 207–222. Thompson, R., & Taniguchi, E. (2001). City logistics and freight transport. In A. M. Ann Brewer, K. John Button & D. A. Hensher (Eds.), Handbook of logistics and supply-chain management. Amsterdam: Pergamon Press. Tsamboulas, D., & Dimitropoulos, J. (1999). Appraisal of investments in European nodal centres for goods: A comparative analysis. Transportation, 33, 141–156. Tsamboulas, D., & Kapros, S. (2003). Freight village evaluation under uncertainty with public and private financing. Transport Policy, 10(2), 141–156. Tseng, Y.-Y., Yue, W. L., & Taylor, M. (2005). The role of transportation in logistics chain. Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 5, 1657–1672. Weisbrod, R., Swiger, E., Muller, G., Rugg M. & Kay Murphy, M. (2002). Global freight villages: A solution to the urban freight dilemma. Proceedings of the 2002 Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Wemelbeke, G. & Mariotte, H. (2007). L’essor des grandes zones logistiques accompagne la massification des flux routiers. SESP En Bref, No. 15. French Ministry for Ecology, Sustainable development and Energy.

CHAPTER 15 EFFICIENT GREEN LOGISTICS IN URBAN AREAS: MILK RUN LOGISTICS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY Toshinori NEMOTO and Werner ROTHENGATTER ABSTRACT Purpose – In this chapter, the potential of Milk Run logistics, a method for consolidating freight, is analysed. Milk Run logistics provides a host of possibilities for consolidating freight transport activities and thus using transport capacity efficiently. It utilizes one vehicle to conduct several pick-ups/deliveries in a round trip, which means that the pick-up/delivery points should be located in a limited area which can be covered in a oneday trip. Findings – Milk Run logistics seems highly beneficial in congested urban environments in developed and developing countries although it may also work in other areas. Furthermore, it can be linked to long-distance logistics, by rail for example, in the national and world-wide network of large companies.

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 319–337 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003017

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Application – Examples for three automotive companies are given: Toyota with its logistic concept for the Bangkok region, Webasto, a supplier of hardtops and other car parts, and Audi, a daughter company of Volkswagen. All of them have introduced green logistics concepts including Milk Runs, which help to reduce CO2, waste material and – last but not least – costs. Implications – The chapter concludes with indicating the high potential of Milk Run logistics to China and its rapidly developing automotive industry. Keywords: Consolidation; Milk Run; third party logistics; just-in-time; urban areas; environmental impacts

INTRODUCTION Shippers including retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers and suppliers are faced with diverse changing consumer needs which mean that it is desirable for them to produce only essential goods and distribute them to suitable places at suitable times while keeping minimum inventories in their entire supply chains. Therefore, they ask the logistics service providers to make frequent, small and just-in-time/just-in-sequence (JIT/JIS) shipments of goods, which have become common in the developed and developing countries. These practices, however, usually increase road freight traffic in terms of vehicle-km, because the trucks have to be dispatched before the trucks are loaded to capacity. The statistics indicate that the truck loading rate, the volume of cargo in terms of weight divided by truck capacity (tons transported/capacity in tons) in Japan has been decreasing continuously for the last two decades (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism, 1990–2009). This also holds for Germany where the transport intensity (transport input per unit of GDP) has increased in the last decade. The increase in freight traffic in urban areas further aggravates traffic congestion and environmental problems such as air and noise pollution. The stakeholders concerned are not happy with this situation. Here we recognize four major stakeholders (Taniguchi & Nemoto, 2001): Consumers, Government, Shippers and Logistics Service Providers (Fig. 1). First, consumers or residents can enjoy JIT delivery of goods they order while they do not like to suffer from traffic congestion and environmental problems. They often ask the city government to solve these problems. The

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Fig. 1.

Shippers

Consumers

Logistics service providers

Government

Stakeholders Concerned with City Logistics.

city government has responsibility to preserve urban amenity and could introduce city logistics policy measures (Visser, Binsbergen, & Nemoto, 1999: see Table 1) such as ‘regulations’ (e.g. truck restriction on some routes during some hours depending on the emission standards) and ‘financial support’ (e.g. subsidy to new low-emission trucks) as shown in Table 1. Some of the measures seem effective in certain urban conditions according to past international experience, while there are no all-round measures. Shippers and Logistics Service Providers are also not happy with this situation: both of them have incentives to avoid the inefficient use of trucks. If they increase the truck loading rate and decrease the number of trucks required while keeping the same frequency of shipment, they can reduce logistics costs and then production costs. These economic incentives encourage them to make cooperative efforts in so-called Milk Run logistics to combine the small-sized shipments on the route. For example, if several pick-up orders, whose consignors are in the same area, are consolidated in a truck with a well-coordinated round trip schedule, the truck loading rate could be increased. It should be noted that voluntary efforts in the private sector could solve the problems caused by urban freight transport to some extent. Milk Run is a type of ‘consolidation’ which has developed an effective concept in the city logistics field. It can include the suppliers of one company (or retail chain) or a host of different companies, which are cooperating or co-organized by 3PL or 4 PL.1 The merit of Milk Run is that consolidation is carried out with a minimum of costly transhipment facilities. Consolidation at transhipment facilities has been widely explored and partly introduced, as for instance in form of Urban Consolidation Centres (UCC), to which logistics service providers bring cargos destined for an urban area, and from which consolidated deliveries are carried out within the area (Dablanc, 2010; BESTUFS, 2009). Usually a successful UCC presupposes

Emission standards/ minimum loading-rate

Zoning for logistics activities Truck routes, time restrictions Urban Consolidation Centre Loading time window

Source: Based on Visser et al. (1999)

Vehicles/ containers

Loading/ unloading

Terminals

Networks

Land use

Differentiated parking charges

–

Road pricing

Land use pricing

Pricing

Applied on k

Regulations

Public

Subsidies for low emission trucks

Facility support

New infrastructures for freight Terminal exploitation

Financial Support

Standardized container, Vehicle and cargo tracking systems

Reservation system of parking lots

Real time traffic information

–

Standardization

Public and Private

Consolidation (Milk Run)/sharing unloading facilities Share of vehicle/fleet

Operation of terminals

Concentrate businesses on one location –

Voluntary Co-operation

Private

Classification of Measures of City Logistics to Reduce Environmental Impact.

Policy Measures

Table 1.

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the active involvement of city and states governments, for instance, regulatory and financial measures to guarantee a comparative advantage for the UCC (Ville, Gonzalez-Feliu, & Dablanc, 2010). Much research has been done on the principles of Milk Run logistics. For example, Gumus and Bookbinder (2004) present principles to design the procurement system, Bowersox, Closs, and Cooper (2002) conclude that Milk Run is an important element for an integrated lean logistics strategy, and Nojiri (2005) shows that the Milk Run logistics is introduced to increase efficiency when the production scale of auto assembly factories is relatively small, at about several tens of thousands annually. However, only a few studies have been conducted on the environmental impacts of Milk Run logistics of auto parts, particularly in developing countries. In this chapter we present the principles of Milk Run and its components in the next section. The following section presents a case study on Pick-up Milk Run by the Toyota Motor Thailand in Bangkok in some detail. Then another case study is presented where we link the Milk Run system to the long-distance logistics within the large supply chain network of a company and put it into the framework of collaborative logistics. In the next section the application of Milk Run in Chinese auto industry is discussed. In the concluding section it is shown that Milk Run is expected to work in China.

PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS OF MILK RUN SYSTEMS Suppose that vehicle pick-up or delivery routings occur with some regularity and are not randomly distributed. This is, for instance, the case for suppliers of large companies, which are integrated into a synchronized sourcing/ delivery scheme with regular JIT/JIS cycles to minimize inventory holding for the production process. It is also the case for suppliers of retail or supermarket chains, which usually have to deliver small or medium-sized loads on a regular schedule. In such cases the roundtrips can be organized in form of Milk Runs, that is on a fixed schedule using optimal regional tours and adjusted vehicle sizes/equipment. Milk-Run is in particular considered in the following cases:  When there is demand at multiple pick-up/delivery points for services which frequently repeat or are integrated in JIT/JIS cycles.  When a company/service provider runs a vehicle fleet and is able to adjust the vehicle sizes/equipment to the individual demand.

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 When a company/service provider has the facilities for optimal planning and organization of tours, in particular the necessary ITS technologies and associated know-how.2 The planning of Milk Run logistics includes the following steps:  Establishment of the nodal points of distribution for a milk-run tour.  Determination of important requirements for the type of service (necessary quantities, delivery times, sequence of delivery, quality requirements, e.g. for perishable goods or sensitive spare parts).  Construction of feasible tours, which fulfil all requirements.  Improvement of tours, usually applying optimization algorithms and heuristics. Milk Run logistics utilizes one vehicle to conduct several pick-ups/ deliveries in roundtrips, so that the pick-up/delivery points should be located within a limited area which a one-day trip could cover, at least. Although this area need not necessarily be urban, Milk Run seems highly beneficial in congested urban environments. Furthermore, it can be linked to the long-distance interurban logistics, by rail for example, in the national and world-wide network of big companies. If transhipments cannot be avoided at the interfaces between interurban and urban freight transport, as for instance at UCC or logistic villages, then cross-docking technologies can be applied to minimize time losses and adjust vehicle sizes for the last-mile tours. Usually there are three types of cross-docking applied:  Pre-allocated cross-docking (units are carried without any change, e.g. packed in pallets, from the sender to the recipient). Only vehicle change occurs at cross-docking points, e.g. from large to small trucks.  Break-Bulk cross docking (consignments are processed and regrouped into new units at the transhipment point). Such processes usually are carried out in large logistics centres.  Break-Bulk plus Value Added Services (sorting, packing, last assembly steps). Fig. 2 summarizes the discussion above, showing three applications of consolidation system involving Milk Run among others: ‘Pick-up Milk Run’, ‘Delivery Milk Run’ and ‘Milk and Main Runs’. In the application of ‘Milk and Main Runs’, Milk Run can be organized not only before the cross-docking process at the transhipment facility, but also after the longdistance logistics and another cross docking process.

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Efficient Green Logistics in Urban Areas Pick-up Milk Run

Delivery Milk Run

Assembly plant

Milk and Main Runs

Supplier

Supplier C

Supplier B (Remote suppliers) Supplier A

Assembly plant C

Assembly plant A

Supplier A

Transhipment Crossfacility

docking

Supplier C

Supplier B

Long-distance logistics

(Nearby suppliers)

Fig. 2.

Assembly plant B

Assembly plant

Applications of Consolidation System.

PICK-UP MILK RUN: THE TOYOTA PRODUCTION AND LOGISTICS SYSTEM IN BANGKOK Toyota Production System The Toyota Production System has been developed as a systemized production scheme employed in a manufacturing plant. It covers activities outside the plant such as parts procurement and then parts pick-up in urban areas. An important concept in this scheme is JIT production which eliminates waste resulting from waiting, stock reserves and defective parts (Monden, 2006; Ono, 1978). Another important concept is production levelling which means minimizing the fluctuation in the amount of hourly parts production, transportation and consumption. When they produce different vehicle models one-by-one in the same assembly line in order to reflect vehicle demand, it is desirable that the interval of production of a particular vehicle model is kept constant, that the volume of necessary parts per hour is level, and that the same volume of parts is picked-up regularly in the Milk Run. This type of levelling has become a mechanism to synchronize the entire process with the takt time (production speed). The takt time is determined from the number of vehicle units of each model as specified in the monthly production plan and the monthly operating time. The sequencing, work procedure and planning of personnel are drawn up to complete each work process within the calculated takt time. Necessary parts for the production process are put on a shelf (called a ‘store’) located at the side of the assembly line.

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Milk Run logistics is employed by the Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) for three reasons: (1) reduction in transportation costs due to fully loaded efficient transportation, (2) greater accuracy of JIT parts delivery to synchronize with the assembly line, (3) clarification of cost elements in transportation and their reduction. Previously, transportation costs were included in the prices of parts in traditional business practices where the suppliers shoulder its cost. TMC can control its transportation cost by managing the Milk Run logistics by themselves.

Milk Run Logistics in Bangkok Bangkok is one of the centres of TMC’s global bases. Although some strategic parts used to assemble the global car are imported from other ASEAN countries in which a system of mutual supplementation has already been established, parts that are procured in Thailand account for about 80% (monetary base). The following text discusses the operations of the Milk Run logistics through an analysis of interview surveys conducted at Toyota Motor Thailand (TMT) and a 3PL provider TTKL (TTK Logistics). TMT maintains three assembly factories located in Samrong, Gateway and Ban Pho and another group company named TAW has one factory in Samrong. They produce 490,000 vehicles a year (of which about 200,000 are for export). This study investigated parts procurement logistics in the TMT Samrong plant. At TMT, parts are procured from about 150 suppliers (Fig. 3). These suppliers are located in five zones in the Bangkok metropolitan area in which the Milk Run logistics is performed (one run made in a period of four hours). Two logistics service providers undertake Milk Run logistics. One of the larger companies undertaking the Milk Run logistics is TTKL which is the focus of this survey.

Management of Milk Run and Its Environmental Impacts TTKL is a logistics company established in December 2002 to manage the Milk Run logistics of TMT. Its activities are divided into transportation and logistics operations. The transportation operation is composed of the Milk Run logistics of locally procuring automobile parts and other activities which include optimal route planning. The logistics operation, on the other hand, consists of Complete Knock Down (CKD) parts packaging for export, parts consolidation (vendor to vendor), and general warehouse

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Fig. 3.

327

Milk Run Zones in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area. Source: TMT documents.

works. The truck centres which maintain a total of 616 trucks and 40 forklifts are located in Amata Nakorn, Samrong, Eastern Seaboard and Gateway. The Milk Run logistics for TMT was started by Toyota Tsusho Thailand in 2001 which was succeeded by TTKL in 2003. At present, Milk Run logistics is being implemented for four factories of TMT. About 50 delivery routes are established to each plant, which can be changed if there is traffic congestion. Six-wheel trucks (4.3 tons loading capacity) are usually utilized but in regions which can accommodate heavy trucks, ten-wheel trucks (12 tons loading capacity) are used. Because the Milk Run logistics relates closely to the automobile’s production plan, a close cooperative relationship between TMT, TTKL and the suppliers is established. The Samrong factory operates two shifts, and parts

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are ordered through e-kanban3 by regularly dividing the daily volume into 36 orders per day. The production and the operational plans are determined from the working plan, and information about parts and goods is transmitted by TMT to TTKL. TTKL collects basic information on running times and transport distances necessary for determining the routes and provides them to TMT. TMT then calculates the transport volume everyday based on parts information, the production plan and container sizes, and then determines the routing and scheduling plan using an optimization system for operations management. Based on these results, TTKL prepares the stowage plan, truck diagram and the schedule of the host terminal. In actual operation, a guide containing the driver check sheet, route code card, terminal card and container label is prepared by TTKL’s operation manager for easy understanding of the operational plan. The operation manager assigns a driver to each route, and registers the route information in a geographic information system (Fig. 4). The driver fills-in the check sheet at each stage of operation. During the operation, the operation manager monitors the trucks’ location by acquiring GPS data every minute. In cases of non-conformities with the schedule, such as delay, speeding or leaving the route, the information is displayed in the computer terminal of the operation centre and the operation manager rectifies the situation by calling the driver’s cellular phone. In cases of traffic

Operation Centre Global Positioning System Poling every one minute Driver fills in driver checking sheet (DCS) Call driver’s cellular phone when in irregular situation Dispatch another truck to transfer auto parts when in accident

Track Sche dule

Track Alarm

Behind or ahead of schedule Over-speed Out of route Accident Instructing detour to avoid traffic jam Call patrol cars to check irregular situation

Fig. 4.

Fleet Management Using GPS. Source: TTKL.

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congestion, a detour is selected from the alternative routes set beforehand. Furthermore, in cases of accidents, an emergency truck is dispatched to the site and goods are transhipped and delivered to the destination in accordance with the scheduled delivery time. At TTKL, evaluation showed that that the investment in GPS was justified by taking into account fuel efficiency, accident reductions and insurance rate discounts. Although trucks do not have on-board computers, they are able to manage the operations by comparing the GPS data and the check sheets which the drivers are requested to fill in at the check points. It is also possible for the driver to be guided accordingly. The benefits produced by such improvement are shared between TTKL and TMT. The parts supplier loads the parts packed in returnable containers at the designated places on the trucks based on a stowage plan. In order to prevent the collapse of goods during transportation, TTKL protects the goods with protective boards and safety belts. Goods are collected from several parts suppliers according to a collection schedule, and then delivered to a specified truck bay in the TMT plant. Arrival times are allowed within plus or minus ten minutes of the scheduled time. For example, if the arrival time is about 15 minutes over the scheduled time, the event is recognized as a schedule compliance deviation. The rate of schedule compliance deviation, which is one of the Key Performance Indicators (KPI), is around 5% in TTKL. The driver unloads the parts in the receiving and checking area using a forklift, and loads empty containers in their place. Once the processing of the documents has been completed, the driver exchanges the forklift key with the truck key, and returns to the TTKL terminal. The returning driver then confirms the contents of the check sheet with the operation manager. If there are no irregularities, the operation is passed to the next driver. Milk Run logistics utilizes the trucks efficiently, where the average loading rate becomes very high. It results in lower environmental impacts including CO2 emission. High loading factors are realized partly because the trucks bring not only required auto parts but also the returnable containers to pack the parts. The empty containers get back to the original suppliers just before picking up new parts in the next run, so that we can assume that the loading rate comes close to 100 % in the case of Milk Run. Based on detailed data on the logistic operations, we estimated CO2 emission in the pick-up operations with Milk Run and without Milk Run. Assuming a simplified supplier location and Milk Run zones around Bangkok, we found that the Milk Run reduces CO2 emissions per factory per day by about 13.6 tons, which is a 53% reduction compared with the situation without Milk Run.

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INTEGRATION OF MILK AND MAIN RUN: EUROPEAN CASES Consolidation by Webasto/Schenker While Milk Run is an urban sourcing and delivery concept, big companies have built up a world-wide network of industrial suppliers. This implies that Milk Run has to be integrated into world-wide supply chains, which are usually constructed so that the assembly plants are served JIT/JIS. The principle is demonstrated by taking the example of the Webasto Company,4 Germany, and its assembly plant in Palmela, Portugal close to Lisbon. At this location Webasto produces retractable hardtops for the VW EOS, which is produced nearby in a Volkswagen assembly plant. 250 hardtops are produced per day, consisting of 450 parts each, produced by 65 suppliers. Only 15% come from the Iberian peninsula while 85% are produced in central Europe. ‘The logistic concept 2008’ has been developed jointly by Webasto and the logistics provider Schenker, the biggest European logistics company, owned by Deutsche Bahn AG. Full truck loads are carried directly from the supplier to Webasto while smaller transport units are carried to the regional hub of Schenker in Regensburg (southern Germany), consolidated there and then carried to Palmela. Fifty full trucks per week go from Regensburg to Palmela, which are almost equally distributed over time. This is the Main Run part of the logistic concept. The regional part is a scheme of six Milk Runs collecting loads in Germany, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia. In the case of low volumes of Webasto suppliers, the logistics provider Schenker consolidates the flows with consignments from other companies. In this way a collaborative logistics platform is constructed which, on the one hand, guarantees synchronized sourcing and delivery of the preliminary products and, on the other hand, optimizes the capacity use of the vehicles employed. Before the introduction of the optimized Webasto/Schenker scheme, every supplier was responsible for the JIS delivery of the products which led to highly unsynchronized schedules and suboptimal loading of trucks. The new concept saved 30% reduction of vehicle kilometres and guaranteed that the remaining 70% are made using a very modern truck fleet. This means that the saving in environmental costs is about one-third, which underlines that a coordinated system of Milk and Main Runs is a big step towards green logistics.

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Milk Run and Rail by Audi and Further Developments Audi AG gives an example for integrating Milk Run and rail in the logistic chains. Fig. 5 shows the distribution of suppliers in Europe. Audi uses rail for the transport of auto parts between Ingolstadt (main plant and headquarters) and Gyo¨r (Hungary). Audi also uses rail for the transport of finished cars. 70% of the delivery of new cars is by rail. For the transport to the overseas port of Emden, Audi uses trains, which are supplied with carbon free electrical energy (produced in Norway by water power). This helps to save about 5,000 tons of CO2 per year. In recent years there have been lively discussions on ways of improving logistics through collaborative arrangements and intermodal transport schemes. Obviously each company tries to optimize their logistic operations. But, this does not lead to the best solution from a macro perspective; this means that efficiency and environmental performance can be improved substantially by constructing collaborative logistic systems. One of the first well-elaborated concepts was due to Grothedde, Ruijgrok, and Tavasszy (2005). They specified an idea of Vermunt (1999) on a ‘Multilognet’, an intelligent multi-logistic network, through designing a collaborative hub network for the distribution of fast moving consumer goods using a combination of trucking and inland waterway (IWW) barges in the Netherlands.

Fig. 5.

Distribution of Suppliers of Audi Plant Neckarsulm. Source: Audi AG (2008).

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Fig. 6.

Integration of Milk and Main Runs in an Intermodal Chain. Source: LogoTakt (2010).

A large research project of the German Ministry of Economic Affairs named ‘LogoTakt’ goes into a similar direction. LogoTakt (2010) is a collaborative synchronized logistic platform for palletized shipments, including all transport modes (Fig. 6). A market study for LogoTakt concluded that about one-third of the long-distance market of unitized transport in Germany (which again is about one-third of the total longdistance freight transport volume in terms of tkm) is affine to this type of intermodal service. The savings of CO2 in the affine markets by reducing truck km is estimated to be 30%. Schenker Rail AG has developed a concept for integrating Milk Run and rail transport. It consists of ‘railport nodes’ (in most cases, big marshalling yards), pallet flow trains, which operate on regular schedules and fixed lines and pallet flow railway cars which can take some 80 pallets each. It is also possible to load air cargo boxes or boxes for inter-industrial exchange, for instance for the automotive industry, on such cars.

USING MILK RUN TO SUPPORT THE GROWTH OF THE CHINESE CAR INDUSTRY The Growth of the Chinese Car Industry The Chinese car market has developed rapidly to become the largest market for automobiles in the world. About 9.5 million road vehicles were produced

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in China in the year 2008, and this is increasing because the car density is still below 50 passenger cars per thousand people such that there is a huge potential for future growth. Fig. 7 indicates a strong relationship between per capita GDP and the number of individually owned automobiles per thousand people, although Shanghai is an exception because it introduced a license plate auction system to control the number of new cars (Fu, 2010). As per capita GDP increases in major Chinese cities, more cars are produced in urban areas supported by Milk Run and interurban logistics network connecting the suppliers. The structure of the Chinese automotive industry will change in the future. Currently China is a sales market for foreign brands which partly are assembled in China. European, US-American and Japanese manufacturers have built assembly plants in China, which serve the Chinese market. There are about 50 Chinese producers in the market which in the year 2008 had a market share of only 6.2%. Table 2 exhibits the largest five producers and their production volumes. As can be seen in Table 2 the production volume of each single Chinese company is not high, compared with giants like Toyota (7.8 million vehicles including trucks and buses), General Motors (7.5 million vehicles) or Volkswagen (6.3 million Vehicles, all figures for 2009). The Chinese producers provide low-cost cars and serve special market segments. It is well known that they are currently imitating a number of successful brands, but this period of imitation will be followed by a phase of original design and technology in the future. It is also probable that many of the 50 or so Chinese producers will be consolidated by mergers and alliances to increase

Number of Individually Owned Automobiles per 1,000 People

160 Beijing

140 120 100 80

Tianjing

60

Zhejiang Guangdong Jiangsu

40 20

Shanghai

0 0

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Per Capita GDP(yuan)

Fig. 7.

Per Capita GDP and Car Ownership in Major Cities (2008). Source: China Statistical Yearbook (2009).

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Table 2.

Largest Chinese Automobile Producers.

Company Dongfeng Motor Corporation FAW Chery Byd SAIC

Production Volume in 2009 (vehicles) 663,242 650,275 508,567 427,732 347,598

Source: ‘World motor vehicle production by manufacturer: World ranking of manufacturers 2009’. OICA (2010, July).

their market power. Big players will grow up with high production volumes which will partly be exported, in a first phase to developing countries and in a second phase, word-wide. Milk Run to Support Sustainable Car Manufacturing in China We expect that Milk Run will play an important role to collect parts in urban areas. In Shanghai, for example, a limited number of registered trucks can run, so that Milk Run is attractive in terms of efficient use of truck fleets with high loading rates. China is a spacious country and car manufactures usually have several assembly factories throughout the country, so both the urban and interurban procurement networks should be designed for efficient and sustainable logistics. In particular for the assembly plants in the central and western provinces where China is trying to foster economic development, Milk and Main Runs should be developed to transport auto parts from the suppliers in the eastern provinces. Hashimoto, Ishihara, Nemoto, and Inaba (2009) analysed how Toyota, having four factories in China, synchronizes procurement from remote places with their production. They reviewed literature that dealt with the relationship between auto manufacturers and parts suppliers, and pointed out two characteristics of procurement logistics. First, networks of procurement logistics tend to become complex because auto manufacturers and parts suppliers take independent strategic positions. Second, it is becoming an important issue to design and construct whole networks of procurement logistics including Milk Runs in urban areas. For procurement within urban areas, Toyota introduced mainly Milk Run pickups. For transport between remote areas, Toyota utilizes coastal shipping between Tientsin and Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shanghai, and Tientsin and Guangzhou, and also uses Yangtze River transport between

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Shanghai and Chengdu. It had used the railway between Tientsin and Chengdu, but stopped using the railway because of unstable lead times (Fig. 8). When deciding which parts are procured from which suppliers, Toyota takes into account the characteristics of automotive parts, such as the economies of scale in production and value density (value of parts/weight). In case of common parts used for many models, it is advantageous to procure from a single supplier which brings benefits of scale economies in production. The parts with higher value density tend to be procured from remote suppliers. For example, Toyota procures car navigation system from a supplier in Tientsin located 2,000km away from their factory in Guangzhou. On the other hand, the parts with lower value density such as seats or fuel tanks are procured from nearby suppliers. A substantial part of the supply chains of the Chinese automotive industry can be organized by combining Milk and Main Runs. The same holds for moving the products to the markets. Milk Run could contribute to

Fig. 8.

Logistics Network of Toyota in China. Source: Hashimoto et al. (2009).

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the establishment of sustainable distribution logistics of consumer products in urban areas. The use of rail, coastal shipping and inland waterways for Main Runs will be necessary in the future, because otherwise an avalanche of truck traffic would be generated, which could not be accommodated by the motorways, existing and planned. Furthermore rail, coastal shipping and inland waterways have substantially lower emissions and accident rates so that shifting transport from road will result in large savings of environmental and human resources.

CONCLUSIONS It has been shown that Milk Run and its integration into long-distance logistics leads to a substantial increase in economic efficiency and environmental benefits in the automotive industry. Milk Run is also expected to work in China, where a large number of cars will be produced in urban areas. We expect that the production technology and the logistic systems will not be very different from schemes which are currently being applied by the big players like Toyota. Extended e-kanban systems with electronic support from specialized software providers might form the heart of the JIT production system and synchronized logistics, which means that Milk Run could play an important role in the collection of parts in urban areas. Apart from the automotive industry, the urban pick-up and delivery logistics of any parts, products and even waste could be organized in the form of Milk Run schemes using suitably equipped trucks of appropriate sizes. Milk runs help to minimize the vehicle-km necessary for regular sourcing or distribution processes and will therefore become a dominant logistics principle in developed and emerging countries including China, Brazil and India. While the principal idea of Milk Run remains invariant over time, there is a wide variety of options to adjust the scheme to regional production and demand patterns in each country, such that at the end of the day, a host of different Milk Run schemes are likely to emerge involving various stakeholders, types of public and private partnership, and links to global logistics networks.

NOTES 1. Third or Fourth Party Logistics. This means that the logistic schemes and processes are organized by a logistic service provider, who either owns facilities (3 PL) or does not own facilities (4 PL).

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2. For example, the software and hardware devices for planning, on route optimization and control. 3. The electronic Kanban process integrates the (spatially distributed) suppliers into the synchronized supply chain. 4. See Go¨pfert (2009).

REFERENCES Audi AG (2008). Audi Logistics. Presented by D. Braun. Ingolstadt. BESTUFS. (2009). BESTUFS 2 Bibliographic Overview. BESTUFS, The Netherlands. Bowersox, D. J., Closs, D. J., & Cooper, M. B. (2002). Supply chain logistics management. Boston: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Dablanc, L. (2010). Freight transport, a key element of the urban economy guidelines for practitioners. Transportation Research Board 2010 Annual Meeting, Washington, DC. Fu, Z (2010). Change in Shanghai’s motor vehicle fleet size, with the focus on the license plate auction system. Conference of East Asian Association of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, Hokkaido University Sapporo, Sapporo, Japan. Go¨pfert, I. (2009). Logistik der Zukunft – Logistics for the future. Wiesbaden: Gabler. Grothedde, B., Ruijgrok, C., & Tavasszy, L. (2005). Towards collaborative, intermodal hub networks: A case study in the fast moving consumer goods market. Transportation Research E, 41, 567–583. Gumus, M., & Bookbinder, J. H. (2004). Cross-docking and its implications in locationdistribution systems. Journal of Business Logistics, 25(2), 199–228. Hashimoto, M., Ishihara, S., Nemoto, T., & Inaba, J. (2009). Logistics management of automotive parts in South China. Journal of Japan Logistics Society, 17, 161–168. LogoTakt. (2010). Project for the German Ministry of Economic Affairs. Lead: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MILT). (1990–2009). Road Transport Statistics, Tokyo. Monden, Y. (2006). Toyota Production System. Tokyo: Diamond Publishing. Nojiri, W. (2005). Japanese physical distribution – Distribution transformation and space structure. Tokyo: Kokon Shoin. Ono, T. (1978). Toyota Production System. Tokyo: Diamond Publishing. Taniguchi, E., & Nemoto, T. (2001). City logistics. Tokyo: Morikita Publishing Co. Vermunt, A. J. M. (1999). Multi lognet, the intelligent multimodal logistics network, an important node in the worldwide logistics net. Vermunt Logistiek Advies v.o.f. Working Paper, Netherlands. Ville, S., Gonzalez-Feliu, J., & Dablanc, L. (2010). The limit of public policy intervention in urban logistics: The case of Vicenza and the lessons for other European cities, 2010 WCTR, Lisbon. Visser, J., Binsbergen, A. V., & Nemoto, T. (1999). Urban freight transport policy and planning. In E. Taniguchi & R. G. Thompson (Eds.), City Logistics 1 (pp. 39–69). Kyoto: Institute of City Logistics.

CHAPTER 16 THE CHALLENGES AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ROAD FREIGHT IN SHANGHAI Rong ZHANG, Jing FAN and Feng-yuan ZHU ABSTRACT Purpose – This chapter reviews the provision for freight transport in Shanghai, and makes recommendations for the development of road freight including the aspects of optimizing the port transportation system, strengthening the planning and construction of freight terminals, promoting the formation of a city distribution system, adjusting downtown traffic policies, and promoting the provision of road freight information systems. Methodology – Based on primary data and observation, this chapter describes the status of road freight in Shanghai and details existing problems. Based on experience elsewhere it then proposes changes in policy. Findings – This chapter proposes some recommendations as follows: optimizing the collection and distribution system of the Shanghai port, planning, and construction of road freight terminals, adjusting the freight traffic policy in the central area and improving the performance of freight firms.

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 339–353 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003018

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Implications – These recommendations, based on good practice elsewhere, should both enhance the efficiency of road freight in Shanghai and reduce its environmental impacts. Value of chapter – The study will help the sound and orderly development of Shanghai’s road freight transportation, better satisfy the needs of the people, and promote the development of Shanghai economy. Keywords: Logistics road freight challenges policy recommendations

THE STATUS QUO OF ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN SHANGHAI Status and Role Shanghai, China’s largest comprehensive terminal for river, sea, road, and air and also the largest international port city, serves as the major corridor connecting China and markets abroad and is also a transfer terminal for China’s import and export goods. Thanks to its special location as a port city and function as a megalopolis, the freight transport interaction between Shanghai and the economic circle in the Yangtze River Delta and the international market is very close. The freight transport volume transited in Shanghai is increasing year by year. From 2001 to 2009, the freight in millions of tons increased by 55%. Meanwhile, with the steady and rapid growth of the Shanghai economy, freight transport activities within the city are increasing. Road freight transport has become the foundation and support of the modern logistics system (Table 1). Road freight transport is a demand-driven industry. The market properties of its resource allocation are determined by the diversity of market demand. The road freight transport market also has characteristically low entrance barriers allowing many kinds of trucks to enter the field of direct door-to-door transport.

Overview of the Road Freight Transport Industry Road freight transport in Shanghai is mainly composed of interprovincial freight and intracity freight. There are also some specific subcategories, for

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Table 1.

The Freight Transport Volume in Shanghai (Million Tons).

Year

Road

Railways

Waterways

Ocean Transport

Air

Total

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

288.69 297.59 306.78 315.54 326.84 337.99 356.34 403.28 377.45

10.80 11.31 12.08 12.84 12.78 12.23 11.43 9.85 9.41

194.96 231.74 266.21 301.48 345.57 373.42 410.41 427.29 379.83

71.29 72.10 78.32 86.03 100.91 117.66 125.75 121.97 119.16

1 1.32 1.62 1.94 2.22 2.53 2.90 3.05 2.98

495.45 541.96 586.69 631.80 687.41 726.17 781.08 843.47 769.67

Source: Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2010.

example, normal freight transport, special freight transport (such container transport and refrigerated transport), and dangerous and heavy cargo transport. Additionally, there are segment markets like interprovincial express and urban commercial distribution. These categories and modes have basically met the needs of economic development and citizens living in Shanghai. Some detailed characteristics of this industry are as follows: (1) With volume increasing rapidly, road freight transport has been the basis and support of the modern logistics system. At the end of 2008, the volume of road freight transport in Shanghai reached 403.28 million tons. Influenced by the economic crisis, volume slipped a little in 2009 and had picked up in 2010. For many years, road freight transport accounted for more than 45% of all freight transport in Shanghai (Fig. 1). (2) The number of road freight transport enterprises is large and the operations vary, with the characteristics of many being quite small and scattered. As of June 2010, there were 41,800 firms engaged in road freight transport in Shanghai. Among these firms, only 170 own more than 100 transport vehicles. Only 21% of general freight firms provide public freight services, each having an average of ten vehicles. The other 79% are own-account operators, and each firm possesses three vehicles on average. (3) The total number of trucks is increasing steadily. As of June 2010, the total number of trucks in Shanghai was 175,000 with a total tonnage of 1,325,523 tons. Fleet structure is gradually being upgraded as the

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Fig. 1. Development and Changes of the Total Volume of Road Freight Transport in Shanghai. Source: Compiled from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2010.

percentage of professional and van-based vehicles is increasing. Urban distribution vehicles are now becoming lighter and more environmentally friendly. (4) The road freight terminals in Shanghai are mainly divided into integrated freight terminals and container depots. Container depots take up a large part, mainly near the ports. In recent years, the road freight terminals have been improved and the functions of these facilities are continually expanding. In addition to traditional and simple services like parking and accommodation, the terminals also supply comprehensive transport services such as warehousing, distribution, information exchange, and mechanical repairs. Overall, there is a lack of public integrated freight terminals in Shanghai (Table 2). (5) Excessive regulations hamper the freight transport industry. There are 23 laws and regulations which serve as the basis for managing the road freight transport industry in Shanghai. Among them, there are three administrative laws and regulations, one local regulation, seven rules from the Transportation Ministry, three governmental rules, six normative documents and three technical specifications. (6) The fuel oil tax reform in China, which began to be implemented on January 1, 2009, has had a positive effect on the management of the

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Table 2.

Distribution of Freight Stations in Shanghai.

District

Number

District

Number

Baoshan Pudong Minhang

38 54 1

Yangpu Fengxian Chongming

2 1 1

Total

97

Source: Zhang and Zhu (2011).

road freight industry. First, it effectively restrained the activity of overloading trucks and promoted the upgrade of transport equipment and the innovation of vehicle manufacturing technologies. Second, the amount of money lost through fuel oil tax avoidance and illegal activity like nonpayment of tolls has been reduced, while at the same time, the fuel oil tax reform encouraged companies to buy new energy efficient vehicles and improve the environment of the road transport market. Third, it has encouraged companies to pay more attention to energy saving and emissions reduction. (7) Easy access to information on road freight in Shanghai began in 2006 when a public information platform was begun. Since 2006, some supporting facilities, tasked with the functions of releasing road freight transaction information, transferring and warehousing goods, centralized trading, and the distribution network of intercity goods have been established. Shanghai will soon form a diversified road freight market platform guided by information technology and innovation. A large percentage of road freight companies use modern communication and computer technology to organize and manage their vehicle fleets and their work flow. Using these methods helps improve their market responsiveness, quality of service, and management effectiveness. In this way, more advanced modes of transportation like drop and pull transportation and multimodal transportation are encouraged.

CHALLENGES OF ROAD FREIGHT IN SHANGHAI While there have thus been several improvements in the context of road freight transport in Shanghai in recent years, there remain a series of serious challenges.

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The Collection and Distribution System in Shanghai Port With the development of China’s export-oriented economy, the throughput of Shanghai port is steadily increasing each year. By 2009, the container traffic in Shanghai port transferring between road and water reached 14.855 million TEUs (SMSB, 2010), which accounted for 59.4% of in the total throughput of Shanghai port. Road freight transport is the main collection and distribution mode of containers in ports. With the increasing amount of throughput between road and waterway, the number of trucks needed to undertake this transportation will also grow. This, in turn, will take up much more road resources and aggravate road congestion. This growth will also have a negative impact on the surrounding environment (Table 3).

Construction of Road Freight Terminals Existing road freight terminals are typically single purpose, mainly providing for container storage and transshipment. Most of them are for firms’ own use and there is a serious lack of public integrated freight terminals. With the rapid growth and expansion of Shanghai, the original freight terminals and logistics centers are becoming outdated and encountering the challenge of relocation. The original terminals are now in conflict with the development of newly built terminals in the same area, and their layout needs to be adapted. At present, most public freight terminals are formed spontaneously and influenced by the market. The layout of these terminals is not well planned and their access to the main regional distribution centers is poor. Owing to the lack of guaranteed land quotas and restricted mechanisms for investment and construction, it is difficult to implement the freight terminals planned by the municipal government. Table 3.

The Throughput of Containers in Shanghai Port Using Road– Water Way (Million TEUs).

Year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Throughput of Shanghai Port Throughput using road–water way

18.08 13.16

21.71 14.63

26.15 16.572

28.01 17.51

25.00 14.855

Source: Zhang and Zhu (2010).

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Public parking space for freight vehicles is limited near major traffic terminals such as ports. A large number of vehicles have to be parked in the green belts or main access points, which leads to a high level of traffic congestion around ports.

‘‘Special Permission Certificate’’ Policy for Trucks Trucks in Shanghai require Special Permission Certificates (SPC) to enable them to enter the city center during the working day. Currently, SPCs are given out in proportion to the number of vehicles owned by freight transport companies. As a result, the supply of SPCs for many urban distribution companies is inadequate, because their fleets are not large. Conversely, some companies with large numbers of vehicles have surplus SPCs, because their main business is not in the city center. This imbalance leads to the leasing and trading of SPCs by some freight firms, negatively affecting fair competition in the Shanghai market. With the improving economic conditions and the improvement of citizens’ living standards, demand for quality service in urban distribution is continuously growing. However, the use of distribution vehicles is severely restricted by the availability of SPCs, which leads to the strange practice of many companies using passenger cars instead of trucks to carry goods. The freight volume of six passenger cars used for goods distribution is equivalent to that of one truck, which brings increasing pressure on road transportation in the form of potential safety hazards and urban traffic congestion.

The Quality of Urban Distribution Vehicles Since the Shanghai Municipal Transport and Port Authority introduced the ‘‘Operating Technical Specifications of Urban Distribution and Logistics Vehicles’’ in 2008, urban distribution vehicles have gradually been standardized. Vehicles belonging to the same transport company have been given unified colors and markings. However, the road freight market is still very much in flux, which increases the difficulty of vehicle supervision. Because of the outdated policy on access passes, there still exists the phenomenon of illegally carrying goods by passenger cars instead of trucks, making it difficult to implement modern logistics, freight market segmentation, and specialization of efficient transportation. Furthermore, the overall technological level of vehicles is very low, represented by relatively heavy

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vehicles, high energy consumption, and low utilization of vehicle capacity. The emissions and fuel consumption of most freight transport fleets cannot meet the demands of energy conservation and emissions reduction.

Scarcity of the Last Mile Distribution Facilities It is a common practice for vehicles used in last-mile distribution in the city to park along the streets illegally. A major reason for the inefficient use of transport resources by vehicles is because the city administration pays little attention to the loading and unloading problems of trucks in commercial and residential areas. The older urban areas were built in times when little thought was given to infrastructure to serve the road freight industry, which did not yet exist in the manner it does today. Because of this, the quality of road design is low and there is a lack of places for vehicle parking, loading, and unloading. Many commercial networks do not have facilities for parking, loading and unloading, and temporary storage of goods. Moreover, there is a lack of construction and management standards for loading/ unloading facilities used for last-mile distribution in Shanghai.

The Road Freight Market In terms of market players, although some well-known companies and brands with powerful organizational functions have emerged, the scale of road freight companies is generally small and there still exists some illegal activity among these road freight companies. Some transport companies own many vehicles on the surface, but in reality, these vehicles belong to an individual. These smaller companies only provide simple business services such as paying management fees, annual vehicle check-ups, and arranging insurance. Lacking a powerful information network to ensure an integrated matching technique for vehicles and goods, and lacking unified service standards, vehicles are ineffectively managed by freight transport companies and are not able to ensure the safety of transportation and the security of goods, resulting in a poor reputation. Due to the low entry costs to the low-level service market, the competition is still quite serious although the situation is improving and there appears to now be a supply surplus in the low-level freight market. Conversely, highlevel services are in the early stage of development, and prominent enterprises in each segment of industry have not yet appeared. However,

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market concentration is gradually increasing. In terms of transportation organization, high-quality transport services depending on organized, intensive, large-scale, and specialized operations are in short supply. For example, the development of drop and pull transport, roll-on and roll-off transport, and container intermodal transport organizations have not yet grown to meet demand. In terms of industry management, there are now many problems such as uneven competition and weak credit consciousness in the freight agent market which lead to frequent business disputes about damage and loss of goods. There are no clear management standards in the existing laws and regulations and effective supervision is lacking. This causes unfair competition between relevant industries and leads to accidental loss of money and goods. Goals for Road Freight Transport Development in Shanghai To tackle these problems, two goals have been established by the Chinese Government (Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China [MTPRC], 2011). Goal One: Construct a ‘‘Safe, Efficient, Smooth, Green, Intelligent’’ Road Freight System Which is Coordinated with Port, Manufacturing, and Urban Distribution logistics. This new road freight system would provide service to the Shanghai International Shipping Center, better satisfy people’s environmental needs, and promote economic development in the ‘‘Yangtze River Delta’’ area. According to detailed plans, the Shanghai area will focus on the development of urban distribution logistics, improving the level of cold-chain transport technology, vigorously promoting drop and pull transportation, enhancing road container transport, maintaining the current degree of supervision of the dangerous goods transport market, promoting industry concentration, guiding development of key companies, and raising the level of vehicle energy savings and environmental protection. The volume of road freight transport in Shanghai will reach 470 million tons by the end of 2015, which is 17% higher than 2010 and accounts for 49% of the total freight volume. By the same time, the collection and distribution volume of road containers will reach 18.9 million tons, 8% higher than 2010. There is a need to constantly strengthen the management of the planning and construction of public freight terminals. Goal Two: Adjust and Optimize the Transportation Structure. As a first step, the structure of transport companies needs to be modified, to expand

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their operating scales, guide them to concentrate on the core business and make their operations more specialized. By the end of 2015, the total volume of businesses housing transport operations in Shanghai will number 25,000, 10% lower than 2010. Second, the organizational structure of transport needs to be adjusted, to develop advanced organizational patterns of transport. By the end of 2015, the ratio of tractors to trailers will exceed 66%, and the percentage of throughput using road–water transfer containers will exceed 45%. Third, the structure of transport capacity will need to be changed by accelerating the rate of innovation, guiding companies to purchase and use more environmentally friendly freight vehicles and continually improving the technology of all other transport equipment, including equipment used in loading, unloading, and the warehousing of goods transported. To realize these goals, the Shanghai area should keep the market as the main force of allocation, and government should play a guiding role in promoting the following basic principles: (1) Building a fair and competitive environment. (2) Safeguarding the public interests, ensuring public safety. (3) Efficient use of road freight resources.

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ROAD FREIGHT DEVELOPMENT IN SHANGHAI Facing these challenges, the government needs to use a variety of strategies to meet them. In the following, we give several policy recommendations which we think will be helpful for road freight development in Shanghai. (1) Optimize the collection and distribution system of the Shanghai port Placing emphasis on an interconnected multi-modal development of ‘‘road, rail, sea, river, air,’’ the interconnection of rail and port should be strengthened, by subsidizing sea-rail intermodal transport, promoting the conversion of container volume on the road to rail and moderately controlling the growth rate of road container collection and distribution volume. There also needs to be a strengthening of information communication among different transportation modes, promotion of transportation with dumping trailers in container transport, simplification of relevant administrative regulations, and resolution of problems with tolls, insurance,

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and customs supervision which restrict the development of dumping trailers. By these means, Shanghai will see a reduced impact of container trucks on the urban environment (Zhang & Huang, 2009). (2) The planning and construction of road freight terminals Improvement to the road freight transport network in Shanghai will be helped by the planning and implementation of additional public road freight terminals. New guiding principles should be made with a clear plan for terminal functions, construction standards, layout principles, scope of investment, and mode of management. Funds should be allocated for the construction of road freight terminals. The city and district should collaborate to form an investment mechanism to promote the construction of road freight terminals and distribution centers, introduce relevant policies to encourage social, corporate, individual, and foreign businesses to invest in terminal construction, and help guide the city’s freight terminal business model from scattered to large-scale operations. Land for building new terminals or modifying existing terminals should be planned and managed together with that for municipal construction. Freight terminal and logistics nodes should be provided when building new highways, trunk roads, and industrial and commercial areas in the city (Zhang & Huang, 2007). New road freight terminals should be integrated with rail terminals. Freight villages should be promoted by integrated land use and transport planning, hence improving transport efficiency. (3) Adjust the freight traffic policy in the central area First, the SPC policy of freight vehicles in the inner city needs to be adjusted according to the principle of keeping the main roads clear, thus allowing other branch roads to be more congested. The traffic restrictions should be maintained only during rush hours and relaxed during nonpeak hours. During the nonpeak hours of 10 am to 4 pm, some vehicles which meet special regulations according to type or tonnage should be permitted (Zhang & Zhu, 2010). Second, the allocation rules for Special Permission Certificates should be modified. To reduce the number of Certificates and to improve their distribution among firms, allocations should be based on a number of principles. Professional operators should take priority over own-account operators. Urban distribution logistics should have priority over general freight. Low-emission vehicles and light vans should have priority over other freight vehicles.

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Third, traffic restrictions should be eliminated for certain vehicles. Freight vehicles using clean energy should be permitted to enter the city with no limitations. A recommended model list for express distribution vehicles and refrigerated transport vehicles should be drawn up and traffic restrictions on these vehicles should be withdrawn. Fourth, the parking and loading/unloading of freight vehicles should be better regulated. New administrative regulations on parking and loading/ unloading activities should be drafted and incorporated into the planning of urban last-mile distribution nodes. In addition to this, the new regulations should be strongly enforced. (4) Strengthen the construction of an urban distribution logistics system An urban distribution logistics node system should be established in order gradually to form a multi-level distribution system such as an ‘‘outside transport terminal/logistics park? distribution center?last mile distribution node.’’ On the basis of cargo transportation demand, the planning and construction of cargo handling facilities in the city should be promoted, standardizing delivery vehicles, continuously improving the service level, launching urban last-mile distribution among online shops, express delivery and community convenience stores, and studying the feasibility and implementation of unattended receiving boxes in Shanghai. Meanwhile, concerning the layout and planning of business nodes in Shanghai, demonstration projects of joint delivery in business areas (such as East Nanjing Road, Huaihai Road, Xujiahui) where land is scarce and traffic problems are serious, should be carried out. According to the principles of ‘‘government promotion, policy supporting, market operation, enterprise management,’’ government should designate the demonstration areas, formulate corresponding policies, and give certain subsidies at the beginning of the project. Then, third-party logistics companies will play a leading role, building public distribution centers outside the demonstration areas, and providing some loading/unloading space inside the areas. Government should also encourage and guide clients inside demonstration areas to join in the joint delivery projects (Zhang & Zhu, 2011). (5) Strengthen the provision of information systems Information management is an important symbol which distinguishes modern logistics from traditional transportation. It is also an important task which needs to be highlighted and put into practice in the process of raising the road freight quality level in Shanghai and the development of better logistics. According to the commercialized operating model of ‘‘government

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promotion, policy supporting, market operation, enterprise management,’’ the construction of a full-featured public information platform for road freight in Shanghai with information exchange, decision consultation, and information verification should be accelerated (Zhang & Liu, 2006). Government payment and tax concessions should be adopted to support quality companies involved in the construction of a road transport information system. A statistics index system for the road transport industry and a complete system for industry statistics should be implemented, making data delivery real-time and more accurate. Market analysis should be strengthened, offering a solid foundation for government decision-making in regard to corresponding policies and rules, broadcasting public information, and creating a fair competitive environment. Industries should be encouraged and assisted to introduce advanced logistics information technology. This will require increased investment, and promotion of the applications of advanced logistics information technology and equipment in the road freight industry. (6) Strengthen the construction of a road freight market system With the development of road freight and modern logistics going into a new stage, governments need to gradually strengthen the functions of market access, operation monitoring, security management, and public service, so as to enable the road freight transport system better to serve the development of modern logistics. First, the policies and regulations on road freight transport need to be clarified and revised. Second, it is necessary to establish a credit system for the road freight market, enhancing the supervision and management of the daily operation of road freight businesses, standardizing the market order, and minimizing wasteful competition. Third, freight companies, and especially the core road freight companies, need to be developed to make them more professional. Fourth, a qualification system for employees in road freight transport needs to be established, to strengthen the training and performance appraisal of employees, and implement dynamic monitoring of staff performance.

CONCLUSION Shanghai, China’s largest comprehensive river, sea, road, and air terminal and also the largest international port city, serves as the major corridor connecting home and overseas markets and is a transfer terminal of China’s

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import and export goods. Recently, with the steady and rapid growth of the Shanghai economy, the freight transport activities within the city are increasing. Road freight transport has become the foundation and support of the modern logistics system. However, during this time of increased road freight in Shanghai, many problems have occurred. Road–water transfer accounts for a large part of the throughput at the Shanghai port, leading to an increase in road freight transport and the number of trucks. This, in turn, will aggravate road congestion. Also, existing road freight terminals were built many years earlier and have simple functions. Their layouts are not compatible with other transport terminals that have been recently built or planned. There are many restrictions on freight vehicle transportation and an outmoded traffic policy affects the efficiency of road freight distribution. The distribution infrastructure in Shanghai is insufficient, which results in the disorderly and oftentimes illegal parking of vehicles. The level of standardization and information management is low and cannot meet the demand of road freight development in Shanghai. There are many low-level or low-quality freight service companies and a scarcity of high quality freight companies in Shanghai and there is an uneven level of competition. All of these qualities make the freight market system imperfect. Facing these challenges, the Shanghai government should play a guiding role in the development of road freight transport by building a fair competitive environment, safeguarding the social public interests, and raising the efficiency of road freight transportation. This chapter proposes measures to meet those challenges: optimizing the collection and distribution system of the Shanghai port; developing intermodal transportation; moderately controlling the increase of road container transport volume; strengthening the planning of public road freight terminals; promoting the establishment and improvement of the Shanghai road freight network; adjusting the traffic policy for freight vehicles in the inner city, allowing them to travel more fluidly; constructing and improving the distribution logistics system in Shanghai; forming a multi-node distribution system as seen with a ‘‘logistics area – distribution center – last-mile distribution area in the city’’ model; enhancing the construction of information technology; promoting the application of mature logistics information technology in the road freight industry; and increasing the role of government in market access, security management, and public service, thus helping road freight companies better serve the development of modern logistics. These measures will be helpful in constructing a ‘‘safe, efficient, smooth, environmentally friendly’’ freight market and will play a positive role in the

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sound and orderly development of Shanghai’s road freight transportation. Through these methods, the needs of the people will be better satisfied and the development of the Shanghai economy can be promoted. These measures will also have a significant importance in promoting economic development in the entire ‘‘Yangtze River Delta’’ area.

REFERENCES Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China. (2011). The ‘Twelve-Five Year’ development planning of road transport industries. Retrieved from http://www.moc.gov.cn/ zhuzhan/zhengwugonggao/jiaotongbu/daoluyunshu/201111/t20111115_1114682.html SMSB. (2010). Shanghai statistical yearbook 2010. Shanghai: China Statistics Press. Retrieved from http://www.stats-sh.gov.cn/data/release.xhtml Zhang, R., & Huang, K. (2007). Research on layout adjustment of Shanghai railway freight terminal. Transportation research and exploration in China – The seventh national youth academic conference on transportation (Part 4, pp. 609–616). Tianjin: Civil Aviation Press of China. Zhang, R., & Huang, K. (2009). Path analysis of influential elements of collecting and dispatching system for container port. Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science), 37(1), 57–62. Retrieved from http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-TJDZ200901012.htm Zhang, R., & Liu, Z. Q. (2006). Study on container intermodal terminal information platform. Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science), 34(2), 201–206. Retrieved from http:// www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-TJDZ200602011.htm Zhang, R., & Zhu, F. Y. (2010). Study on the ‘Twelfth Five-Year’ development plan of Shanghai Urban road freight parking. Shanghai: Shanghai Municipal Transport and Port Authority. Zhang, R., & Zhu, F. Y. (2011). A study on suggestions of promoting joint distribution in Shanghai. Logistics Science and Technology, 2, 120–123. Retrieved from http:// mall.cnki.net/magazine/Article/LTKJ201102041.htm

SECTION 5 CONCLUSIONS

CHAPTER 17 CONCLUSIONS Anthony D. MAY, Masanobu KII, Roger L. MACKETT and Haixiao PAN THE CHALLENGE OF URBAN TRANSPORT By 2050 there will be 6.9 billion people living in urban areas, accounting for 70% of the global population. The most developed nations will have urbanisation rates as high as 90%. Not only will more people be living in cities, but the largest cities will be getting larger. In their analysis in Chapter 2, Kii and Doi estimate that there may be as many as 17 megacities, with more than 10 million inhabitants, in China by 2050. Even so, the bulk of urban population growth is likely to be in smaller cities. One of the major challenges of these growing cities is the provision of adequate access, without letting the private car dominate. This is made more difficult by the trend in car ownership, which, as Pan notes in Chapter 3, rose in China from around 1 million in 1994 to over 60 million in 2010. At the same time, most cities are expanding through the process of urban sprawl, which imposes longer journeys, which in turn reinforce the use of the car. Pan’s analysis indicates that the speed and scale of urbanisation in China have never been experienced before in human history. While growing motorisation brings benefits to users, it also contributes to a growing number of inter-connected problems. The most immediate is congestion, which restricts economic activity, reduces the effectiveness of public transport, limits accessibility and adds to pollution. High traffic flows

Sustainable Transport for Chinese Cities Transport and Sustainability, Volume 3, 357–366 Copyright r 2013 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2044-9941/doi:10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000003019

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on poorly designed roads contribute to accidents, which are often most serious for vulnerable road users on foot and bicycle. These problems will grow even more rapidly than the population in developing cities and will impinge disproportionately on the lives of the poorest city dwellers. Growing car use and increasing congestion will also intensify the contribution of transport to climate change. CO2 emissions from the transport sector grew by 37% from 1997 to 2007, currently account for 23% of global CO2 emissions, and are predicted to continue growing, particularly in Asian cities, thus contravening the targets for emission reductions agreed in COP3 in Kyoto. These are the problems to be faced by individual cities and their administrations in planning their transport strategies and systems. The smallest cities are likely to find this particularly difficult, but even the largest cities can learn from experience elsewhere in the world. Hayashi, in his contribution to Chapter 1, advocates a Leap-Frog strategy, in which developing countries avoid the past trends in motorisation and urban sprawl which have aggravated emissions, and instead ‘leap-frog’ to a position in which the measures advocated in developed countries can be more readily implemented.

APPROACHES TO POLICY FORMULATION A Leap-Frog strategy implies learning from, and not repeating, the mistakes of past policies in the developed world. In particular, cities should avoid what Crozet, in Chapter 4, describes as the first stage of accessibility, which focused on improving speed through an emphasis on the car and on road building, but paradoxically led to urban sprawl and increasing congestion. Instead, they should build on the experience of Crozet’s second and third stages of accessibility: targeting public transport enhancements, and focusing directly on land use planning to facilitate greater use of public transport, walking and cycling. The implications for cities in China are discussed in Chapter 9. In Chapter 7, May outlines evidence on the most effective policy instruments for passenger transport: enhancements to public transport services, quality and fares; improvements to walking and cycling; fiscal and regulatory controls on car use; low cost enhancements to road capacity; and behavioural measures designed to reduce the need to travel and stimulate the use of sustainable modes. Examples of the application of these policy instruments are provided in many of the chapters of Section 3.

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Similarly, Section 4 presents evidence on suitable policy instruments for freight transport, including freight transport infrastructure and facilities, fiscal, regulatory and informational controls on freight traffic, optimisation of logistics operations and the encouragement of multi-modal freight logistics. As May demonstrates, effective Leap-Frog strategies involve packages of these policy instruments, together with land use planning, drawing on the synergies between them and the ability of each to help overcome the barriers to implementing the others. In a European context, infrastructure investment is rarely a cost-effective element in such strategies. Both Pan, in Chapter 3, and Zhao, in Chapter 5, advocate such an integrated approach for Chinese cities. Their preferred strategies focus on public transport, walking and cycling, and land use planning to reinforce the use of these modes. They see a continuing need for infrastructure investment in the rapidly growing cities of China, but suggest that investment should focus on rail and bus rapid transit (BRT). Zhao in particular expresses concern that many smaller Chinese cities are unaware of these arguments, and the potential of such policies. Like Pan in Chapter 3, he sees the need for a collaborative agreement between national government, city governments and local communities. In this context, plans should be consensus-led, involving the full range of stakeholders and respecting their different value sets, and policy visions should be derived from the integration of these value sets. Doi and Kii, in Chapter 6, offer a cross-assessment model which supports consensus-led planning using a combination of a Land Use Transport Interaction (LUTI) model and a multi-criteria appraisal routine. As applied to Japanese cities, their model has demonstrated the importance of public transport and compact city development, and shown that strategies designed to minimise CO2 emissions can also achieve improvements in terms of efficiency and equity. May, in Chapter 7, describes two further analytical tools which are of potential value to Chinese cities. The first, a knowledgebase of policy instruments, could well help to overcome the gaps in knowledge which Zhao identifies in smaller Chinese cities. The second, a policy optimising method, also uses a LUTI model, but couples it with an optimising routine which can reflect cities’ differing objectives and constraints. While such tools can help to identify appropriate strategies, their implementation may well be limited by the constraints of political will and public acceptability. Experience in the United Kingdom, reviewed by Kendal et al. in Chapter 8, highlights three agents which can help ensure

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that policy changes do in practice take place: public and political acceptance that problems do need addressing, the emergence of policy proposals which are effective in addressing those problems, and unforeseen events which stimulate change. Unforeseen events are at least as likely to thwart as to encourage policy change, but visionary policies, led by political champions, can overcome such pressures.

TRAFFIC AND PASSENGER TRANSPORT These principles are applied to passenger transport in the chapters of Section 3. Pan provides an overview for Chinese cities in Chapter 9, arguing that priority in strategy development should be given to planning the built environment for pedestrians, followed by bicycles, public transport and then the car. The land use mix should encourage use of bicycles and walking by providing small street blocks with appropriate functions located within the networks. Large-scale developments should not be allowed until access on foot, bicycle and public transport has been planned. Controls on the growth in car use will be an important element in such strategies. As Pan argues in Chapter 9, there is a strong case to limit the growth in urban car use in Chinese cities. However, as Mackett notes in Chapter 10, it may be politically difficult to reduce car use, given the possible adverse effects on the economy. The relative trends in car ownership in Beijing and Shanghai demonstrate the effectiveness of the latter’s regulations on the purchase of new cars. Both cities are now considering the option of congestion charging, whose application in London is described by Mackett. In addition, as Mackett illustrates, limits on car ownership can be facilitated by a move away from traditional car ownership to car clubs and neighbourhood car rental so that households make their choices of mode in a more rational manner. Because car ownership levels in China are still relatively low, the various methods of sharing cars may help to provide high levels of accessibility while avoiding the problems associated with high levels of traditional car ownership. Where cars continue to be used, there is a strong case for introducing electric vehicles. As Schade and his colleagues indicate in Chapter 11, electric vehicles could be used in large scale car sharing systems, adopting smartcard technology linked to a mobility card or mobile smart phone. More generally, electric vehicles could form part of a hierarchy, including electric hired bicycles for short trips, public transport for longer trips in public transport corridors and a shared electric car for longer trips to other

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destinations. China’s positive attitude to new technology, experience with electric bicycles and current low ownership of conventional cars may well combine to achieve the rapid acceptance of electric vehicles in China. Innovative public transport systems such as BRT should form a key element of the strategy for urban transport in China. As Bian and Ding indicate in Chapter 12, based on experience in Xiamen City, the success of BRT can be assured by linking it to major trip generators such as airports and major railway stations, keeping it segregated from other traffic and using feeder services by small buses with low fares so that many people have a door-to-door service. The financial operating deficit of BRT can be reduced by encouraging commercial development at hub stations on the system. This linking of land use and public transport system planning is vital also for new metro lines. Cao and Qian, in Chapter 13, analysing the Nanjing Metro, argue that many urban metro lines do not reach their design passenger flow because of failure to consider development around stations. They offer a methodology for calculating the scale of facilities for transfer between modes at metro stations, in terms of bus facilities, car parking and bicycle parking.

FREIGHT AND LOGISTICS The same principles are applied to freight and logistics in Section 4. Like passenger transport, freight transport is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions but its operating characteristics are very different, and there is a more limited understanding of the requirements for reducing its impacts on climate change. Strategies will differ by type of commodity. Moreover, the freight and logistics system typically involves several agents such as the shipper, operator, planner and infrastructure provider. As a result, decision-making in freight transport may be more segmented and complicated than in passenger transport. Chinese cities face a rapid increase in freight transport demand, growing dependence on road freight transport, fragmented and inefficient freight markets, and shortage of public freight terminals. By reference to the case of Shanghai in Chapter 16, Zhang, Fan and Zhu demonstrate that these problems lead to low-level services and inadequate supply of high-level value added services, as well as environmental problems. New policies for freight transport need to include the optimisation of feeder transport to and from ports, the development of road freight terminals, a strengthened urban

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logistics system, an improved regulatory regime, encouragement to build a strong road freight market, and better information systems and statistics for freight transport. Freight villages, called logistic centres in the United States, are a key element in the broader logistics process. As Liu and Savy illustrate in Chapter 14, they have advantages when compared to dispersed logistics activities, and can contribute to improving the efficiency of logistics. However, once again their development needs to be integrated with land use planning. Milk runs are a form of logistics distribution for multiple pick-up and delivery points with a fixed schedule. The method provides optimal regional tours, with vehicle size and equipment chosen to maximise the efficiency of vehicle stocks thus leading to reductions in the costs and environmental load of freight transport. As Nemoto and Rothengatter argue in Chapter 15, milk run logistics have the potential to improve the efficiency of overall logistics systems, and to achieve substantial potential savings in environmental and human resources.

A TRANSPORT STRATEGY FOR CHINESE CITIES From the evidence in this book, it is clear that Chinese cities already have many of the problems associated with rapid urban growth, such as congestion, pollution and poor accessibility. However, car ownership is much lower than in many cities in developed countries, so, if the present trends continue, the situation will become much worse. As argued in Chapter 1, there is a strong case for measures to be implemented in Chinese cities to allow them to ‘leap-frog’ over other countries with higher levels of car ownership and to implement measures to avoid the worst excesses of congestion, pollution and sprawl seen elsewhere. In Chapter 2 it was shown that the number of megacities in China is expected to grow significantly, so there is an increasing need to develop sound strategies to address the issues. Furthermore, because Chinese cities are likely to move through the three stages of accessibility much faster than cities in developed countries, the need for sound policy-making and scheme development and implementation is urgent. Drawing upon experience from outside China, as outlined in this book, is very useful, but the ideas and concepts must always be adapted to a Chinese context. The strategies need to be underpinned by a sound conceptual framework, allowing integration of land use and transport policies. The modelling

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system outlined in Chapter 6 could help to support the development of integrated land use and transport strategies. While the data requirements for a complete modelling system would be extensive, China is well placed to develop and use modern technology for GPS and other remote sensing systems. Furthermore, the process of developing the models could help in consensus building among the various stakeholders. The knowledgebase and optimisation procedures discussed in Chapter 7 should enable planners in China to start generating options for consideration by stakeholders. In particular they should help to integrate policies from different sectors and to show where synergies exist. This should be facilitated by the evidence on the experience of how policies can be made more acceptable to the population, as discussed in Chapter 8. As described in Chapters 3, 5 and 9, there are already a number of policy measures in place to help address the transport problems of larger Chinese cities. As Premier Wen Jiabao’s statement in 2004 made clear, urban public transport is seen to be a priority (Chapter 3), with various documents issued to help implement this strategy, such as ‘The Guideline on Giving Priority to the Development of Urban Public Transportation’ in 2005 (Chapter 5) and the proposal to increase the modal share for public transport to 40% in cities with a population of over 10 million under the ‘twelfth five-year urban public transport development outline’ (Chapter 3). These policy statements are being implemented through local policies such as the single low fare policy in Beijing (see Chapter 3), the Urban Public Transportation Week and Car-Free Day schemes (Chapter 5) and the implementation of new systems such as the BRT system in Xiaman City (Chapter 12) complemented by appropriate land use policies (Chapter 13). In the past many people cycled in China, but this has become less popular as incomes have risen, making it easier to purchase cars. At the same time the growth in car use has made cycling more dangerous and unpleasant so that cycling is now seen as outdated and only suitable for short trips (Chapter 9). Also, many cities have begun to restrict or prohibit bicycles on busy roads during peak times as part of the policy of giving priority to public transport (Chapter 3). Hangzhou was the first city in China to apply public transport priority to a public bicycle rental system (Chapters 3 and 5) and the similar system in the Minhang district of Shanghai has been linked with the metro system to help promote integrated travel (Chapter 9). The need for improved pedestrian networks is particularly crucial in China because the one-child policy means that many people will have to provide for themselves as they grow older in accessing shops and services (Chapter 9).

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Schemes have been introduced to help reduce the rate of growth of car ownership such as the Shanghai motor vehicle plate auction which has slowed down the growth in car ownership compared with Beijing (Chapters 4 and 9). However, the car still poses a major problem, partly because of the policy of building major expressways associated with the central government car industry promotion policy of 1994 (Chapter 9). Because all land in urban areas is owned by the local government, cities are able to plan land use and transport infrastructure on a large scale through the development of master plans. However, there are weaknesses in the system, because they are often overambitious and give priority to economic efficiency rather than sustainability. As a result, they tend to favour building roads, and to stimulate the modal share of public transport at the expense of walking and cycling. Moreover, master plans tend to be very rigid and unadaptable to changing circumstances, as in the decisions by national agencies on the location of new railway stations (Chapter 3). Hence, there is a need for more flexible approaches, with large improvement schemes only being permitted when access by green modes has been included in the decision-making process from the beginning (Chapter 9). The freight industry is very important in China with a large number of enterprises involved, many of them quite small and scattered, with excessive regulations hampering the development of the industry. Freight contributes considerably to road congestion, particularly in urban areas where city authorities pay little attention to the problems caused by loading and unloading lorries in commercial and urban areas (Chapter 16). Further action is thus required to address the major issues facing cities in China. While policies to address car ownership growth have had some success, they have delayed the growth in congestion and pollution rather than solving them. The citizens of China have become much more mobile as they have become wealthier and the car has helped to satisfy their demand for mobility, and policies which offer lower levels of accessibility are unlikely to be acceptable. Hence, in developing a strategy to enable China to avoid the worst excesses of motorisation, more radical approaches are required. Congestion charging should help to reduce congestion. A parking levy could also assist, by enabling the city to have control over the number of cars being parked. However, it is important to draw on the experience, such as in London and Stockholm, if such measures are to be implemented successfully. Implementation needs to involve increasing the availability of public transport before implementation, making the public aware that they are receiving faster journeys in return for the toll and ensuring that the revenue raised is used for transport. Because many households in China do

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not, as yet, own a car, it would be possible to follow an alternative strategy, in which renting rather than owning a car becomes the norm in China. This could be done through car clubs, neighbourhood rental schemes and car sharing which encourage users to pay the marginal cost of each journey. These could be run as private enterprises, supported by the local authority providing relevant information through modern technology, such as mobile phone apps based upon GPS technology. It would be possible for many of the vehicles to be electric, providing that this does not cause more atmospheric pollution through the use of old-fashioned power stations to generate the electricity (Chapter 11). The more flexible approach facilitated through car rental should mean that many of the vehicles could be small, allowing China to lead the world in the development of small electric vehicles and bicycles.

CLOSING REMARKS Trends in urban transport are unsustainable, particularly in the largest cities and in the most rapidly developing countries, such as China. As Pan notes in Chapter 3, it is estimated that there will be 300 million more urban dwellers in China by 2030. Economic growth has been the Chinese government’s top priority for many years. Following the experience in developed countries, the car industry has been established as one of the pillar industries, resulting in rapid motorisation not only in megacities, but also in small- and mediumsized ones. City governments in China have committed themselves to policies to control serious congestion. During the 1990s they focused on major road infrastructure construction to facilitate car driving. But congestion became much worse. Driving speeds in Shanghai and Beijing fell to less than 15 km/h in the rush hour. As a result of growing car use and worsening congestion, emissions from motorised vehicles are now a major contributor to air pollution in China. People have gradually begun to recognise the importance of the quality of life in cities. Local governments are now reflecting this in their visions and policy motivations, and are in turn being supported in this by national government. As an example, in Shanghai, the auction of entitlements to purchase a car, exclusion of cars without Shanghai local licences from the elevated motorways in the peak, and higher parking costs have resulted in car ownership being much lower than in Beijing, even though Shanghai is larger in population and higher in average income. The free lottery car plate

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allocation system introduced from 2011 in Beijing promises to be an equally dramatic urban transport policy change. This is also the signal to adopt car control policies nationwide to improve urban environmental quality. China, therefore, is well placed to pursue a Leap-Frog strategy and to avoid the worst errors of Western transport policy. Action is needed now while motorisation levels are still low, and needs to be taken rapidly, given the rapid pace of urbanisation. This book provides evidence of the policies which should be implemented and offers tools to help in their design. Perhaps its most important and recurring message is that transport systems cannot be planned alone, but need to be integrated with effective land use plans.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS JingWei BIAN is Director of Urban Construction Environment and Resources Committee of Xiamen Municipal People’s Congress. He graduated from Tongji University with doctor’s degree in urban planning and design. He is Professorate Senior Urban Planner and National Registered Urban Planner. He is a part-time Professor at Xiamen University, Huaqiao University and Jimei University. He has served as President of Xiamen Urban Planning and Design Institute and Deputy Director of Xiamen Planning Bureau. His main research interests are the urban planning theory and design, urban traffic planning, urban and rural planning management and regulations. He has published 4 books and over 50 papers on these topics. Wei CAO, master’s degree, is an urban planner at Nanjing Institute of City & Transport Planning Co., Ltd. His research interests lie in the integration between land use planning, traffic planning, and urban design. In recent years, he has completed a series of projects, such as pedestrian and bicycle system planning, integrated traffic hub area planning and design, transit-oriented development (TOD) and planning of areas surrounding rail transit stations, an integration study between urban space and traffic, and road engineering and streetscape design. Some projects have won the excellent award of Nanjing City and Jiangsu Province. Yves CROZET, economist, is Professor at the University of Lyon since 1992, currently at the Institute of Political Studies. Member of the Laboratory of Transport Economics (LET), he used to be the director of this research team from 1997 to 2007. Since 2010, he Secretary General of the World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS). He is also Chairman of the Observatory Energy and Environment of Transport and Head of the Operational Group # 6 (Transport Policies) of PREDIT, the French national research programme on transport. Ming DING is Chief Engineer of Urban Traffic Research Center of Xiamen Urban Planning and Design Institute. He is a Senior Engineer and National Registered Urban Planner. He is a part-time member in Xiamen Traffic 367

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Improvement Office. His main research interests are urban traffic planning, public traffic planning, traffic management and transportation hub design. He has published 2 books and over 20 papers on these topics. Kenji DOI is Professor at the Department of Global Architecture, Graduate School of Engineering in Osaka University. He holds Doctor of Engineering degree from Nagoya University. Prior to his current position, he was Professor at Department of Safety Systems and Construction Engineering in Kagawa University and Associate Professor at Department of Civil Engineering in Tokyo Institute of Technology, and Visiting Professor at National Center for Transportation Studies in University of the Philippines. His research expertise is in land use and transport planning and policy integration. He serves as Chair of the SIG on ‘Transport and Spatial Development’ of the World Conference on Transport Research Society and a Scientific Committee Member of the WCTRS. Marcus ENOCH is a Senior Lecturer in Transport Studies in the School of Civil and Building Engineering at Loughborough University, where he conducts research into supporting the efforts of practitioners and policymakers in reducing the reliance of society on the private car. Specifically, his interests focus on using a wide range of quantitative and qualitative methodological approaches to help improve the planning, implementation, operation and evaluation of transport planning and policy instruments that limit the impact of the car on society. In addition he has an interest in how sustainable transport systems more generally could be delivered more effectively. Dr Enoch has published 38 academic journal articles, 45 professional journal articles, 21 project reports, and 10 book chapters, and has presented at more than 70 conferences, while his second authored book ‘Sustainable Transport, Mobility Management and Travel Plans’ was published in May 2012. Jing FAN was a student of Professor Zhangrong in School of Transport Engineering in Tongji University. She mainly studied freight and logistics, transport policy and transport system planning. During her graduate studies, she lead and participated in many related projects. Also she joined many foreign meetings to strengthen her understanding about her major in other countries and China. She published two passages in two journals in China. Now Jing Fan is working in MVA’s Shenzhen office. She has participated in three different projects in six months since her graduation, which are Shenzhen CTS, Zhengzhou Blue-Bay TIA and Integrated Transport Planning in The New Area in Xi’an.

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Yoshitsugu HAYASHI is Director and Professor, International Research Center for Sustainable Transport and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan. He serves as Vice-President of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers and Chair of Scientific Committee of World Conference on Transport Research Society. He has been working in urban land use – transport modelling, impact assessment of high speed rail, mechanism analysis of urbanization and motorization and their negative feedbacks and the countermeasures. He has served as editor of Transport Policy as well as associate editors of Transportation Research (D: Environment) and Papers in Regional Science. Stephen ISON is Professor of Transport Policy in the School of Civil and Building Engineering at Loughborough University. An economist by training, he has extensive experience of research in transport policy, sustainable transport and transport demand management. He has published 6 books and over 175 papers. He was recently Visiting Professor at the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), University of Sydney Business School. He is co-editor of the Journal of Research in Transportation Business and Management (Elsevier), associate editor of Transportation Planning and Technology (Taylor and Francis) and co-editor of the book series Transport and Sustainability (Emerald). He is a member of the Scientific Committee of the World Conference on Transport Research Society and Chair of the WCTRS Special Interest Group (SIG10) on Urban Transport Policy. He is a member of the Ground Access and Transportation and Sustainability Committees of the Transportation Research Board (TRB), Washington, DC. Joe KENDAL is a former doctoral research student in the School of Civil and Building Engineering at Loughborough University. He was awarded his PhD in Rural Transport Policy from Loughborough University in June 2011. Findings from his doctoral research have been published in the International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, and presented at the annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board in Washington, DC. He is now a primary school teacher but maintains a keen academic interest in transport studies. Masanobu KII is Associate Professor at Department of Safety Systems and Construction Engineering in Kagawa University, Japan. He worked at the Institute for Transport Policy Studies (2000–2003), the Japan Automobile Research Institute (2004–2008), and the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (2008–2009) before joining Kagawa University

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in 2009. He has conducted various types of policy impact analysis in urban and transport sector, including fuel economy regulation, public transport policy, and urban land use planning. His research interests include sustainability of energy and environment systems. His recent publications include Technological Innovation and Public Policy (2011, Palgrave Macmillan, co-editor), Looking at Sustainable Urban Mobility Through a Cross-Assessment Model Within the Framework of Land-Use and Transport Integration (2012, IATSS research, co-author), and Random-Growth Urban Model with Geographical Fitness (2012, Physica A, co-author). Fabian KLEY worked as a researcher at the ‘Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research’ focussing on the assessment of new technologies in the energy sector. He studied industrial engineering (MSc) at the University of Karlsruhe, holds an MBA from the University of North Carolina and a PhD from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. Currently, Dr Kley works as a management consultant for Booz & Company. Jonathan KO¨HLER works in Innovation and Technology Management and Foresight at the Fraunhofer ISI (Institute for Systems and Innovation Research). From 2000 to 2005, he was Research Theme Manager, Integrating Frameworks, Tyndall Centre. He has worked on IAM (Integrated Assessment Model) development for climate policy and on EU and global macroeconomic modelling for energy and climate policy analysis. He was theme leader (economics) in the UK OMEGA consortium on aviation and the environment and is now working on transitions modelling and the modelling of innovation systems and processes in transport. He is involved in the EU CleanSky research consortium and has published on emissions trading and biofuels in aviation and low carbon innovation in the automobile industry. Xiaoming LIU is a PhD student in the Paris Institute for Town Planning (IUP – Institut d’urbanisme de Paris) at the University of Paris-East. She is also a PhD student at Nanjing University for a common PhD project organized by the Sino-French Centre for Urban, Regional and Planning Studies, which is a joint research centre between the University of Paris-East and Nanjing University. Her research interests lie in the inclusion of logistics into urban and regional planning. This topic involves transport economics and management as well as urban and regional planning. Roger L. MACKETT is Emeritus Professor of Transport Studies at University College London with 40 years experience of transport modelling

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and policy analysis. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport and of the Chartered Institution of Highways and Transportation. He is researching into ways of overcoming the barriers to reducing car use and improving health through increasing walking and cycling. He led a project funded by the UK Department for Transport reviewing the evidence on the links between transport, physical activity and health. He has researched into the influence of car use on children’s physical activity using accelerometers and GPS monitors and ways of improving access to local facilities for groups in the community. Currently he is involved in projects on children’s independent mobility around the world, the health impacts of the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway, and the positive effects of concessionary bus passes for older people. Anthony D. MAY is Emeritus Professor of Transport Engineering at the University of Leeds. Since his appointment at Leeds in 1977, he has served as Director of the Institute for Transport Studies, Dean of the Faculty of Engineering and Pro-Vice Chancellor for Research. Between 1985 and 2001 he maintained a link between research and teaching at Leeds and practical experience in consultancy with MVA Ltd. for whom he was Director of Transport Policy. Prior to 1977 he spent 10 years with the Greater London Council, where he was responsible for policy on highways, traffic management, and transport-related land use planning. He was elected as a fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering in 1995, and awarded the OBE for services to transport engineering in 2004. He retired from the University of Leeds in 2009, but is still active in research, consultancy and professional development. He is currently President of the World Conference on Transport Research Society. Toshinori NEMOTO is a Professor in Transport Economics at the Graduate School of Commerce and Management, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo. He has held visiting posts at the National Center for Transportation Studies at the University of the Philippines and the Centre for Transportation Studies at the University of British Columbia, Canada. His research interests are the common international and intermodal logistics policies in Asia and the sustainable financial system to develop and maintain transport infrastructure. He is a joint recipient of ‘The Best Paper Award’ at the Japan Logistics Society in 2010, and a joint recipient of ‘The Best Book Award’ at the Japan Society of Transportation Economics in 2010. Nemoto is currently the chief editor of the Japan Society of Transportation Economics and sits on the editorial board of the international journal Transport Reviews.

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Haixiao PAN is Professor at Department of Urban Planning of Tongji University. He is urban planning advisor for the Shanghai government. Pan’s major research interest is in the areas of land use/urban transport and sustainable development. He has been also involved in implementation studies on land use and urban transport planning in more than dozen cities in China. Anja PETERS is Senior Researcher at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) within the Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems. She holds lecturer positions in Environmental Psychology at the University of Basel and the University of Landau. Her main research interests are factors and measures influencing and promoting sustainable behaviour, acceptance of environmental innovations and rebound effects. In particular, Anja focuses on the areas of mobility behaviour and individual consumer behaviour. In addition to her research expertise she has deep experience in consulting stakeholders from public administrations, NGOs and industry. Until 2008, she was researcher at ETH Zurich in the Institute for Environmental Decisions where she studied psychological factors which influence the purchase of fuel-efficient new cars as part of her PhD thesis. Linbo QIAN, doctor’s degree, Professor, is a Chief Engineer and Vice Chairman at Nanjing Institute of City & Transport Planning Co., Ltd. His research interests lie at the urban transport planning, traffic engineering, traffic management and traffic safety. He is Deputy Secretary-General of the urban transport planning academic committee of China, and also a specialist in urban transport planning and traffic engineering design in China. Werner ROTHENGATTER is retired Professor at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. Before retirement in 2009 he chaired the Institute of Economic Policy Research and its unit for transport and communication. His research focus was on transport modelling, assessment of infrastructure investment and infrastructure pricing. He was the President of the World Conference on Transport Research Society between 2001 and 2007 and is a member of several advisory committees on transport policy. Michel SAVY is a Professor at Paris East – Cre´teil University and E´cole des Ponts – ParisTech, with a degree in Civil Engineering (E´cole Centrale) and a PhD in Economics. He is a researcher in the Lab’Urba, Director of the Observatory of Transport Policies and Strategies in Europe and editor of its journal Transport/Europe, and Co-Director of the Sino-French Centre for

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Urban and Regional Planning Studies (Nanjing and Paris East Universities). He is also a member of the experts’ college of the Regulator for Railways Activity, of various academies and professional associations and of the editorial boards of Revue d’e´conomie re´gionale et urbaine (Paris), Cahiers scientifiques du transport (Paris), Transport Reviews (London), International Journal of Transport Economics (Pisa). His main teaching and research fields are Freight Transport and Logistics, Production and Territory. He has published numerous books and articles and his English textbook Freight Transport and the Modern Economy, written with June Burnham, is forthcoming. Wolfgang SCHADE has been Head of the Research Unit on Transportation Systems at Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) since 2008. From 2005 he was Senior Researcher at Fraunhofer ISI. From 1997 until 2005 he was Researcher and Lecturer at the Institute for Economic Policy Research (IWW) at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). In 2001 he was seconded as a national expert to the European Commission in Seville to support assessments of the Lisbon agenda. In his various positions he coordinated more than 10 European research projects as well as several national projects and participated in more than 50 further projects in the fields of sustainable mobility; competitiveness and transport economics; transport, energy and climate policy; climate mitigation strategies for transport; renewable energy; integrated assessment to analyse green growth strategies; electromobility and hydrogen studies; and foresight and scenario studies. Rong ZHANG is Professor of Transport Studies at the School of Transportation Engineering in Tongji University. His main research interests are transport economics and policy, logistics planning and management, and rail transport management. Up to now, Zhang has completed more than 50 research projects, published over 60 journal articles in China or international journals and been invited repeatedly to speak at some prestigious conferences. During the period of 2002–2004, he visited LET (sponsored by the CNRS, the University Lyon 2 and ENTPE) in France many times for joint research. Currently, Zhang is the deputy chairman of the School of Transportation Engineering in Tongji University, and he also directs the Transportation Commission of Shanghai Science and Technology Committee on Transport, Port and Shipping, which is a committee of Shanghai Municipal Transport and Port Authority.

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Jie ZHAO is a Senior Engineer Transport. Currently he is Director of Urban Transport Institute of China Academy of Urban Planning and Design and Vice Director of the Urban Transport Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. Social part-time jobs are Vice Director and Secretary-General of the Urban Transport Planning Academic Committee of the Urban Planning Society of China and subeditor of Urban Transport of China journal. He has been engaged in professional missions for over 20 years, and is in charge of and involved in dozens of urban transport researches and planning projects. His main research area includes urban transport policy, transport planning and public transport. Feng-yuan ZHU is Assistant Engineer in the Department of Logistics Project Design at CCCC Third Harbor Consultants Co., Ltd. He graduated from the School of Transportation Engineering in Tongji University in 2011. His research expertise is in the logistics of port, urban distribution, road freight system research etc. He has taken part in many projects about freight policy and urban distribution system research of Shanghai and port logistics planning and design for many coastal cities of China.

SUBJECT INDEX Accessibility, 4, 10, 18, 59, 61, 63, 66, 79–97, 120, 150, 170, 208, 222, 224, 226, 279, 282, 357–358, 360, 362, 364 Agents for change, 168 Agglomeration, 20, 22–26, 28, 34–35, 37, 40, 81, 85, 308 Bangkok, 6–7, 320, 323, 325–327, 329 Beijing, 4, 8–10, 47, 51–52, 58–59, 61–68, 70–72, 81, 92–94, 107–109, 111, 142, 169, 195, 197, 203–204, 207–208, 310, 312, 333, 360, 363–366 Benefits, 4, 61, 70, 75, 83, 94, 120, 122, 126, 133, 135–142, 145–146, 149, 152–153, 157, 161–163, 182, 214–215, 228, 278, 282–283, 329, 335–336, 357 Bicycle, 4, 9, 57, 62–63, 70–72, 94, 101, 104–105, 109, 112, 115, 126, 195–196, 199–203, 208, 213, 217, 222, 224, 227, 243, 245, 248–249, 272, 292, 358, 360–361, 363 Bus lanes, 75, 115, 273 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), 7, 9–10, 13, 51, 53, 59, 75, 94, 96, 107–108, 114, 163, 199, 255–274, 359, 361, 363 Car ownership, 4–5, 7–8, 10, 51–52, 74, 80, 92–93, 128, 148–149, 375

162, 177, 181, 187, 200, 213–215, 222, 224, 226, 333, 357, 360, 362, 364–365 Cars, 4–5, 7–8, 12, 45, 51–52, 57, 59, 61–62, 73–75, 80–82, 84–85, 92–94, 96, 100–101, 111–113, 115–116, 124, 130, 138–139, 169, 171, 179, 197, 200–201, 208, 212–215, 219–220, 222–224, 226–227, 232–234, 237, 240–242, 244–245, 247, 249–250, 258, 280, 283, 285, 288–290, 292, 328, 331–333, 336, 345, 360–361, 363–365 Challenges, 4, 46, 73, 79, 81, 90, 92, 96, 99–100, 116, 121, 146, 162, 197, 237–238, 339–340, 343, 348, 352, 357 China, 3–5, 8–14, 18, 25, 27–28, 36–38, 43–49, 51, 53, 55, 57, 59, 61, 63–75, 94, 99–101, 103, 105–107, 109, 111, 113, 115–116, 120, 142, 146, 163, 167–169, 171, 173, 175, 177, 179, 181, 183, 185, 187–190, 195–202, 209, 211–212, 226–228, 231–234, 237–238, 241, 243–250, 256, 278, 282–284, 286, 297, 301, 307, 309–310, 313–314, 320, 323, 333–336, 340, 342, 344, 347, 351, 357–366 Climate change, 5, 13, 17–18, 20, 143, 146, 162–163, 175, 177, 197, 214, 358, 361

376 CO2 emissions, 5, 7, 11, 120, 122, 124–126, 128, 130–131, 133, 135, 137–140, 142, 146, 152–157, 161, 164, 174, 176, 215, 240, 329, 358–359 Complex network theory, 18 Congestion charging, 183, 187, 211–212, 218–219, 226–227, 360, 364 Consolidation, 304, 306, 320–322, 324–326, 330 Constraints, 11, 40, 43–44, 81–83, 92, 99, 145–146, 149–150, 152, 157, 159–162, 167, 212, 359 Construction, 7–9, 46–51, 53–55, 59, 64, 66–68, 73, 75, 94, 103, 106–109, 111–112, 114–115, 140, 175, 180, 196–201, 208, 221, 255, 259, 263–264, 266–268, 270, 274, 278, 292, 301, 313, 315, 324, 339, 344, 346–347, 349–352, 365 Cordon charge, 154, 157, 161 Country comparison, 232 Density, 9–10, 13, 23, 29–31, 50, 52–53, 58, 60, 75, 80, 85–87, 89, 91, 114, 122–124, 138, 187, 195–199, 203, 205, 235, 257, 300, 333, 335 Development, 6–7, 9, 11, 13–14, 18–19, 23, 40, 43–45, 48–51, 53, 55, 59–60, 62, 68–70, 73–75, 79–82, 88, 90, 92, 94–96, 99–101, 103, 106–107, 114, 116, 120–121, 135, 140, 142, 147–150, 163, 167–170, 172, 174–175, 178, 180, 182–188, 190, 195–200, 204–205,

SUBJECT INDEX 208–209, 226, 231, 235, 237, 240–247, 249, 255–258, 263–267, 274, 278, 280–286, 292, 297, 304–305, 308–310, 312–316, 334, 339–342, 344, 346–353, 359–365 Disabilities, 64 Distribution, 10, 14, 17–20, 22, 26–29, 32–34, 36–40, 55, 103, 105, 125–126, 130, 132–133, 142, 149, 151, 168, 179, 198, 257, 269, 282, 290, 299, 301, 303–304, 307, 316, 324, 331, 336, 339, 341–350, 352, 362 Electric Vehicles (EVs), 231–233, 237–238, 240–241, 243–248, 250 Emissions, 5–8, 11, 13, 17–18, 20, 49, 57–58, 74, 96, 116, 120, 122, 124–126, 128, 130–131, 133, 135, 137–140, 142, 146, 152–157, 161, 164, 174, 176–178, 181, 197–198, 200, 214–215, 232–234, 236–237, 239–240, 243, 249, 329, 336, 343, 346, 358–359, 361, 365 Energy, 7, 10–11, 43–44, 49–50, 57–58, 74, 101, 116, 123–124, 169, 187, 232, 235–239, 241–243, 273, 279, 299, 305–306, 309, 315, 331, 343, 346–347, 350 Environmental impacts, 174, 177, 320, 323, 326, 329, 340 Expressways, 12, 197, 364 Fares, 154, 161 Freight transport, 6, 13–14, 143, 298–299, 305, 319, 321, 324,

Subject Index 332, 339–347, 349, 351–353, 359, 361–362 Freight villages, 13, 297–299, 301–307, 309–311, 313–316, 349, 362 Fuel duty, 173, 178–179, 215 Fuel price, 178–179, 181, 220, 231, 241 Fuel tax, 116, 145, 151, 153–157, 178–179, 181, 243 Geographic Information Systems (GIS), 20, 79–80, 85 Global urbanization, 17–18 Government, 8–10, 12, 43, 45–47, 49–51, 53–55, 60–61, 64, 66–74, 85, 87, 93, 99–100, 103, 106, 116–117, 125–127, 131, 163, 169–170, 174–181, 183, 185–186, 188–189, 197, 202, 204–205, 208, 215–217, 219, 226, 232, 238–239, 242–243, 246–247, 274, 314, 320–321, 344, 347–348, 350–352, 359, 364–365 Green transportation, 99–100, 103, 106–107, 111, 116, 196 Housing, 23, 48, 50, 60, 82, 84–85, 87, 91, 95, 140, 150, 171, 216, 228, 265, 283, 306, 312–313, 348 Hybrid, 7, 112, 220, 235–236, 239–241 Improvement, 7, 34, 63, 80, 85, 92, 95–96, 99–100, 113, 120, 135–136, 139–140, 142, 198, 208, 250, 267, 272, 312, 324, 329, 345, 349, 352, 364

377 Infrastructure, 8, 11, 13, 23, 33, 37, 46, 48–49, 53, 55–56, 60, 66–70, 83, 85, 92, 101, 108–109, 120, 123, 128, 145–149, 152, 161, 163, 169, 171, 173, 176–178, 181, 186, 196, 201, 236, 238, 241–242, 263, 301–303, 306–307, 312, 316, 320, 346, 352, 359, 361, 364–365 Innovation system, 232 Integrated connection, 277–278, 292 Integrated Transport System, 255–256 Land use, 5, 9–10, 12–13, 44, 50–53, 57, 74, 79–80, 87, 89–90, 96, 101, 103, 112, 114, 120, 138, 140, 147–150, 169, 171, 196–199, 203–204, 209, 257, 264, 266–267, 274, 277–281, 283, 285–292, 322, 349, 358–364, 366 Logistics, 3, 6, 9, 13–14, 34, 297–316, 319–327, 329–331, 333–336, 340–341, 344–345, 347, 349–352, 359, 361–362 London, 173, 182–187, 199, 211–212, 215, 217–220, 222, 225–226, 244, 360, 364 Low-carbon city, 51, 196–198, 208 Management, 6, 11, 37, 39, 46–48, 50, 59, 64, 66, 68–69, 99, 110–111, 115–116, 120–122, 142, 147–148, 152, 169, 171–173, 176–178, 198–199, 201, 208–209, 219, 273, 278, 293, 297–300, 309, 312–313, 316, 326, 328, 342–343, 346–347, 349–352

378 Market diffusion, 231–232, 245, 250 Megacities, 4, 17–19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35–40, 100, 104, 142, 249, 357, 362, 365 Metaphors, 9–10, 18, 20, 169, 203, 225, 231, 233, 267, 269, 273, 283–284, 304, 313–314 Metro, 7, 9, 13, 46, 48, 50–51, 53, 55, 59, 61, 64–69, 72, 75, 94, 196, 201–208, 222, 277–283, 290–291, 293, 361, 363 Milk run, 14, 319–327, 329–336, 362 Ministry of Construction, 49–50, 54, 64, 66, 68, 106 Ministry of Finance, 49, 57, 68, 106 Ministry of Land and Resources, 106 Ministry of Science and Technology, 106 Mobility, 12, 18, 23–25, 44, 51, 59–63, 79–82, 89–90, 95–96, 119–123, 125–127, 129, 131, 133, 135, 137, 139, 141, 175, 188, 196–197, 200, 209, 212–213, 226, 228, 232–233, 238, 242, 245–246, 248–250, 360, 364 Modal split, 55, 60, 70–72, 195, 201, 203–205, 271 Model, 10–11, 17, 19–22, 27–29, 33–35, 39–40, 46–47, 68, 72, 111, 114–115, 119–120, 122, 125, 127, 129–130, 142, 145, 149–152, 155, 157, 162–163, 183, 195, 197–201, 203–205, 207, 209, 240, 245, 258, 274, 300, 325, 349–350, 352, 359 Motorisation, 4, 6–9, 12, 169, 187–188, 226, 232, 357–358, 364–366

SUBJECT INDEX Operation effectiveness, 256 Optimisation, 14, 131, 146, 148–152, 161, 163, 359, 361, 363 Pedestrian, 72–73, 75, 81, 89, 105, 171, 199–201, 208, 218, 272, 363 Planning, 4, 9–10, 12–13, 18, 39–40, 45–48, 50, 52–55, 57, 61, 63–64, 66, 71–74, 82–83, 92, 96, 99, 109, 114, 120, 142, 148–150, 163, 167–168, 170–172, 175, 180, 182, 185–186, 195–199, 201, 203–205, 208–209, 216, 221, 224, 228, 240, 243, 248, 255, 259, 270, 278–280, 282, 284, 288, 290, 293, 297–298, 301–302, 304, 306–309, 312, 314–316, 324–326, 337, 339, 347, 349–350, 352, 358–362 Policy implementation, 44 Policy implications, 11, 146, 161–162 Policy packages, 145–149, 151, 153, 155, 157, 161, 163 Policy recommendations, 14, 81, 339–340, 348 Population, 3–4, 8, 10–11, 17–29, 32–40, 44–45, 49–50, 52–55, 61, 63–64, 80–81, 86, 100–101, 122–123, 128, 130, 132–133, 138–140, 142, 146, 149–151, 162, 169, 187–188, 197, 199, 220, 224, 257, 282–284, 307, 310, 315–316, 357–358, 363, 365 Ports, 307, 342, 344–345, 361 Practice, 5, 11, 14, 44, 50, 59, 61, 99–100, 175, 199, 205, 216, 221, 227, 259, 284, 340, 345–346, 350, 360

Subject Index Pricing, 6, 11–12, 104, 110, 120, 145, 147–148, 151, 153, 155–161, 163, 171, 173, 176, 181–184, 186–188, 211, 218, 220, 322 Protests, 178–181, 184 Public policies, 52, 79–81, 84, 89, 91–93, 96 Public transit, 7, 79–80, 88, 271–272, 274, 306 Public transport, 4, 6, 9–13, 46, 48–55, 59–63, 65–66, 68–71, 73–75, 88, 90–91, 94–96, 99, 101, 103–106, 108–110, 112–116, 119, 122–131, 133–135, 138–143, 145, 147–148, 155–157, 161, 163, 169, 171, 173–174, 176–177, 179–180, 182–183, 185, 188, 195–196, 198–200, 202–205, 208, 216, 221–222, 224, 227, 246, 248–250, 255, 258, 274, 283, 357–361, 363–364 Rail, 6–7, 10, 14, 46, 48, 64, 68, 103–104, 107–108, 113–115, 151, 171, 173, 178–179, 184, 199, 201, 204–205, 222, 255, 258, 270, 274, 277–279, 281–287, 289–292, 302, 304, 306, 310, 319, 324, 331–332, 336, 348–349, 359 Regional planning, 297–298, 312, 314 Road capacity, 89, 148, 151–154, 156–161, 163–164, 171, 174, 176, 197, 219, 358 Road freight, 14, 320, 339–353, 361–362 Roads, 4, 7, 47–48, 50–51, 62, 64, 70–71, 92–93, 96, 105, 123, 171,

379 174, 176, 180, 183–185, 196–198, 201, 215–216, 218, 267, 273, 279, 307, 349, 358, 363–364 Scenario, 17, 19, 21, 36–39, 80, 92–93, 132–135, 138–141, 143, 185 Scheduling, 115, 328 Shanghai, 3–5, 8–10, 14, 25, 37, 39, 44, 46–48, 51–54, 58–64, 66–73, 75, 81, 92–94, 107–109, 111, 169, 195, 197–199, 201–204, 208–209, 244, 247, 333–335, 339–353, 360–361, 363–365 Standards, 46, 48, 50, 57–59, 63–65, 116, 169, 173, 239–243, 284, 321–322, 345–347, 349 Strategy, 6–10, 13, 46, 48–49, 51, 53, 55, 62, 66, 74, 96, 99–100, 103, 105, 121, 124–127, 131, 133, 135–136, 139–142, 146, 148–153, 157–161, 163–164, 171–172, 218, 222, 227, 232, 238, 241, 243–244, 270, 282–283, 306, 323, 358, 360–366 Subsidy, 68–69, 126, 157, 227, 247, 321 Sustainable development, 18, 40, 43–44, 49–51, 55, 74, 81, 90, 96, 174–175, 178, 196, 198, 205, 297 Synergy, 146–147, 152, 154–156, 163 Terminals, 9, 14, 53, 224, 273, 300–302, 304, 309–310, 322, 339, 342, 344–345, 347, 349, 352, 361 Third party logistics, 298, 300–301, 304, 320 Tokyo, 7, 25, 37, 138–140, 283

380 Tolls, 74, 183, 343, 348 Toyota, 239–242, 320, 323, 325–327, 333–336 Traffic, 3–4, 6, 12, 47–48, 52, 59, 62, 66, 70–72, 89, 92, 94, 99–101, 104–106, 110–111, 113–116, 124, 128, 138, 142–143, 152, 171, 174, 176–179, 185, 197–202, 205, 218–220, 222, 225–226, 258, 263–264, 267–268, 277–281, 283–293, 304–305, 309–310, 312, 316, 320, 322, 327–328, 336, 339, 344–345, 349–350, 352, 357, 359–361 Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), 6, 53, 196, 198–199, 204–205, 209, 255–256, 258, 264–265, 274, 280, 283–284 Transport planning, 39, 46–48, 53, 55, 63, 71, 82, 120, 167, 170, 172, 180, 182, 185, 196, 209, 278, 349 Transport policy, 3, 5, 9, 40, 43–44, 46, 49, 57, 70–71, 73, 122–124, 126, 145–149, 151, 153, 155, 157, 161, 163, 167–187, 189, 306, 313–314, 366 Urban areas, 3–4, 12, 18, 52, 58, 62, 66, 70, 84, 86–87, 89, 91, 95, 119–120, 122, 124–125, 128, 136, 139, 142–143, 145, 177, 182–184, 187, 189, 211–217, 219, 221, 223–227, 246, 249, 270, 278, 319–321, 323, 325, 327, 329, 331, 333–336, 346, 357, 364

SUBJECT INDEX Urban mobility, 12, 44, 79–81, 96, 119–123, 125, 127, 129, 131, 133, 135, 137, 139, 141, 196–197, 250 Urban transport, 3, 5, 9, 14, 43–51, 53, 57, 59, 62–63, 66, 71, 73–74, 79, 99–101, 103, 113–116, 119–125, 140, 142, 146–149, 151, 153, 155, 157, 161, 163, 184, 187, 196–200, 204, 209, 248, 258, 309, 357, 361, 365–366 Urban transportation, 46, 99–101, 103, 113–116, 196 Vehicles, 6–8, 12–13, 48, 57–59, 71, 93–94, 100–101, 105, 111–113, 116–117, 128–131, 171, 197–198, 214–216, 218–220, 223, 231–250, 258, 261–262, 267, 270–273, 290–292, 310, 322, 326, 330, 332–334, 341–343, 345–346, 348–350, 352, 360–361, 365 Walking, 6, 9–11, 44, 55, 60, 62, 70, 89, 101, 107, 109, 112–113, 115, 146, 148, 152, 161–163, 182, 188–189, 195–196, 200–201, 208–209, 217, 222, 224, 226–227, 284–285, 288–289, 358–360, 364 Xiamen City, 9, 13, 102, 255–259, 261, 263, 265, 267, 269, 271–274, 361 Zhengzhou City, 102 Zipf’s law, 17–19, 22