Soviet National Income and Product in 1928 9780231891042

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SOVIET NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT IN 1928

A RESEARCH STUDY BY THE RAND CORPORATION

SOVIET NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT IN 1928 By OLEG HOEFFDING E C O N O M I C S RESEARCH THE

RAND

STAFF

CORPORATION

1954

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS, NEW YORK

T H E TRANSLITERATION SYSTEM USED IN THIS SERIES IS BASED ON THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS SYSTEM W I T H SOME

MODIFICATIONS

COPYRIGHT I 9 5 4 , THE

RAND

CORPORATION

1 7 0 0 M A I N STREET, SANTA M O N I C A , CALIFORNIA PUBLISHED IN GREAT BRITAIN, CANADA, INDIA, AND PAKISTAN BY GEOFFREY C U M B E R L E G E , OXFORD UNIVERSITY

PRESS

LONDON, TORONTO, B O M B A Y , AND K A R A C H I M A N U F A C T U R E D IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA L I B R A R Y OF CONGRESS CATALOG CARD N U M B E R :

54-9365

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

THIS STUDY

was part of a program of research by T h e R A N D Corpora-

tion for the United States Air Force. T h e author wishes to express his particular indebtedness to Professor Abram Bergson, whose pioneer work provided both the inspiration and the methodological framework for this study. His advice and comments were invaluable in its preparation. Grateful acknowledgments are due to Messrs. Hans Heymann, Jr., Norman M. Kaplan, and Joseph A. Kershaw, who supplied essential comments after critical reading of the manuscript in its several stages. A n indirect but indispensable contribution to this study was rendered by the Russian Institute of Columbia University, whose award of a senior fellowship in 1950 enabled the writer to return to the field of Soviet economic studies after ten years' absence. O L E G HOEFFDING

March,

1954

CONTENTS I II

INTRODUCTION

3

NATIONAL INCOME AT ESTABLISHED PRICES

12

III

NATIONAL INCOME IN A D J U S T E D R U B L E S

44

IV

EVALUATION OF R E S U L T S

73

APPENDICES APPENDIX A : NOTES TO TABLE 1

99

APPENDIX B : NOTES TO TABLE 2

127

APPENDIX C : NOTES TO TABLES 5 AND 7

141

APPENDIX D: NOTES TO TABLE 6

148

APPENDIX E : NOTES ON SOVIET INVESTMENT DATA FOR 1 9 2 8

149

PUBLICATIONS C I T E D

153

TABLES TABLE

1. HOUSEHOLD AND PRIVATE SECTOR ACCOUNT, USSR, 1 9 2 8

TABLE

2 . PUBLIC SECTOR ACCOUNT, USSR, 1 9 2 8

TABLE

3 . GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT ACCOUNT, USSR, 1 9 2 8

TABLE

4 . GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BY USE, USSR, 1 9 2 8

TABLE

5 . NET NATIONAL PRODUCT BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN, USSR, 1 9 2 8

TABLE

6 . GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BY USE, AT ESTABLISHED PRICES AND IN ADJUSTED RUBLES, USSR, 1 9 2 8

TABLE

7 . NET NATIONAL PRODUCT BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN, AT ESTABLISHED PRICES AND IN ADJUSTED RUBLES, USSR, 1 9 2 8

TABLE

8 . GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BY USE, USSR, 1 9 2 8 AND 1 9 3 7

TABLE

9. NET

NATIONAL

1 9 2 8 AND

PRODUCT

BY

INDUSTRIAL

ORIGIN,

USSR,

1937

T A B L E 1 0 . SOURCES OF PUBLIC FINANCE, USSR, 1 9 2 8 AND 1 9 3 7 A P P E N D I X T A B L E A . CALCULATION OF NET NATIONAL PRODUCT BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN, USSR, 1 9 2 8

SOVIET NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT IN 1928

A RESEARCH STUDY BY THE RAND CORPORATION

I. INTRODUCTION

1. PURPOSE AND SCOPE

of this study is to present estimates of the national income and product of the Soviet Union in 1928, in a form comparable to those first produced by Bergson for the Soviet Union in 1937 and those subsequently prepared by Bergson and Heymann for 1940-48.1 These previous studies contribute to the understanding of resource allocation, industrial structure, and other aspects of the Soviet economy in a relatively advanced phase of comprehensive economic planning and under full-fledged "socialism," Soviet style. They also shed light on the effects of war preparation and of World War II itself on the economy of the USSR. Our study, by contrast, is concerned with the Soviet economy on the eve of the Five Year Plan era. It is hoped that, in conjunction with the studies just cited, it will make it possible to appraise the changes wrought by and during the Five Year Plans against a more or less homogeneous statistical frame of reference. The choice of the year 1928 as a basing point for such an appraisal is not a compelling one, and may in some respects be debatable. The fact that the first Five Year Plan, formally, went into effect in the last quarter of 1928 is the least weighty one among possible objections to our choice, since the impact of the increased investment programs and other substantive features of the first Plan was not sudden enough to produce an imprint on the economy overnight. In selecting 1928, one steers clear not only of the changes intended by the first Five Year Plan but, more important, of its more or less unscheduled attributes and their far-reaching effects upon the Soviet economy: the collectivization of agriculture, the inflationary pressure generated by forced T H E OBJECT

1

Abram Bergson, Soviet National Income and Product in 1937, N e w York, 1953 (Cited hereafter as "Bergson"); Abram Bergson and Hans Heymann, Jr., Soviet National Income and Product, 1940 V O ir!

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