Research and Management Practices for Conservation of the Persian Leopard in Iran [1st ed.] 9783030280017, 9783030280031

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Arezoo Sanei Editor

Research and Management Practices for Conservation of the Persian Leopard in Iran

Research and Management Practices for Conservation of the Persian Leopard in Iran

Arezoo Sanei Editor

Research and Management Practices for Conservation of the Persian Leopard in Iran

Editor Arezoo Sanei Asian Leopard Specialist Society Tehran, Iran Faculty of Forestry Universiti Putra Malaysia Selangor, Malaysia

ISBN 978-3-030-28001-7    ISBN 978-3-030-28003-1 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28003-1 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland



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© Carol Cavalaris

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TO THE KING OF THE MOUNTAINS OF IRAN, THE PERSIAN LEOPARD

Foreword

The Persian leopard is one of the rarest subspecies of leopard and the last of the Panthera genus in Iran. Over the recent years, this subspecies has come under many challenges for its survival including habitat loss and fragmentation and decline of prey species, along with overutilization by hunting and poisoning in response to conflict with livestock farmers. Understanding this apex predator is important through research and the development of a long-term management plan. In 2002, Dr. Arezoo Sanei, the book’s Editor, began the long process of researching the Persian Leopard when she was a bachelor student, she completed her PhD. on the subject in 2018, and is now the Executive Director of the Asian Leopard Specialist Society since 2010. In 2012, the preparation of the Persian Leopard National Conservation and Management Action Plan began. And, after extensive consultative workshops with stakeholders and participatory planning sessions, the National Action Plan was completed, under the direction of Dr. Arezoo Sanei, the Executive Director of the National Action Planning Program in 2016. This plan covers an extensive amount of data and analysis, which has arisen from Dr. Sanei’s researches and PhD and the precursor to this book. Over the years, I have had the opportunity, from Namibia and Iran, to work with Arezoo and the members of the National Action Planning Steering Committee and other conservation biologists, in their combined efforts to understand all aspects of the Persian leopard, along with other apex predators, like the endangered cheetah, identifying threats and opportunities for species survival. Dr. Sanei’s dedication to the species and the science, which is guiding the process of Persian leopard survival, is to be commended. The book comprises two sections, one on research techniques and the other on management practices. The topics presented in each chapter of the research section continuously are related to findings and research needs proposed in other chapters and in previous studies about the Persian leopard. Thus, step-by-step, they build and improve upon present knowledge pertaining to various aspects of a topic with medium- or long-term objectives. Innovative methodologies and new findings not only increase the body of scientific knowledge about a subspecies and the accompanying practices but also serve to share findings for improved transboundary ix

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cooperation and conservation management practices addressing the Persian leopard population in Southwest Asia. In a review of the first section of the book on research, various related technical studies are presented. For example, in Chap. 4, a very careful research design using MaxEnt produced an accurate and reliable map of the potential habitat distribution of the Persian leopard. To increase the accuracy of the results, extensive variables of natural and socio-economic factors in the diverse regions of Iran are considered. This variability could considerably affect the reliability of the modelling in the entire country. As reliability is integral to the accuracy of the model, a series of steps were taken to insure the best outcome. The entire range of the leopard was divided into significantly dissimilar regions in terms of natural and socio-economic factors. In each region, the distributed data were collected in a grid-cell format and completed separately. Aside from established validation techniques routinely used for modelling projects, additional assessments—involving approximately 150 knowledgeable local residents of different regions of the country, together with field visits when required—were conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the maps. Furthermore, ground validation of the predictive maps was undertaken in three different provinces, each located in a diverse region with dissimilar natural and socio-economic characteristics. That approach, along with the evaluation of three threshold rules using actual field data, generated useful technical information in terms of methodological evaluations. Results of Chaps. 4 and 5 are further used to conduct the research presented in Chap. 6. Cumulative effects of land use (LU) and land cover (LC) on the survival of a species could be much different from considering stand-alone LU/LC factors. Knowledge gained in the previous chapters of the book was used to develop an innovative mathematical model with the relative threshold levels to address a combination of land use and land cover factors—cumulative effects that eventually could influence the Persian leopard regional persistence in various parts of the country. This modelling procedure also could be used for other wide-ranging species, other leopard subspecies or other populations of the Persian leopard in neighbouring countries with relative modifications according to the species and region-­ specific data. In the second section of the book on management practices, an innovative model concerning a participatory planning procedure is presented. The model utilizes general strategic and action plan theories and techniques to produce a localized modelling procedure appropriate for the species and relative local conditions. The next two chapters, 9 and 10, address the activities conducted and are followed by the endorsement of the first Persian Leopard National Action Plan in Iran in early 2016. Very little is known about trafficking of the carnivores and in particular the cat species in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Thus, Chap. 9 is dedicated to this issue and recommends a contingent valuation practice as a requirement for wildlife trafficking law enforcement addressing the leopard in Iran, in particular. The last chapter, Chap. 10, is dedicated to an innovative insurance scheme to cover the loss of livestock to the leopard as well as to the grey wolf concurrent with improving the livestock husbandry practices. The insurance plan also looks to

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record and pay for medical expenses of any possible human injuries and atonement for maim or deaths (according to the Iranian laws and regulations) resulting from the human-carnivore conflicts. Finally, the insurance programme considers the threats in leopard mortality hotspots to support relative conservation activities for the purpose of reducing the leopard mortality rate. As one of the iconic large carnivores of Iran, the Persian leopard is also found throughout the South, West and Central Asia. The Persian leopard has a wide distribution through the country and is entrusted to Iran’s Department of Environment (DoE) for long-term management and protection. This book will be of great importance to all government agencies, NGOs, researchers and stakeholders who have the task to work cooperatively to save this species for future generations. Thank you for your contribution to our understanding of the Persian leopard. Cheetah Conservation Fund Otjiwarongo, Namibia October 2018

 Laurie Marker

Preface

My studies on the Persian leopard started in early 2002 after a very special trip to a village called Kandelous in Northern Iran. At that time, I was a bachelor student, searching a topic for my thesis. Kandelous, particularly when I visited the area, was just like a piece of paradise in a valley with forests nearby. In the middle of the village, there was a small museum presenting history and information related to the area. When I entered the museum, I saw a large statue of a lady standing by a leopard. I started to search about the story of the statue from local people. Most elder people said the same story about a wild leopard that trusted and started to regularly follow a young lady, named Mina, in about hundred years ago. Eventually, the leopard was killed by a member of the village, and since then, Mina left to the forest and never came back again. After this trip, when I went back to my home city, Tehran, in the discussions with my lecturer (late Dr. Hormoz Asadi, an international felid expert), he encouraged me to choose the leopard as my research topic. It was mainly because at that time all about the status of the Persian leopard in Iran was unknown and undocumented (e.g. distribution pattern and presence areas, threats, conservation requirements). Soon, a manuscript was published by Dr. Bahram Kiabi and his colleagues about a guesstimate of the leopard population in the country. Iran is a vast and diverse country, and everywhere I travelled, I found a shadow of the leopard in local beliefs and thoughts. But actually, it was almost a mystery whether the Persian leopards are really somewhere out there or they have been there long in the past. Therefore, I started to collect baseline information which was mainly about distribution and presence areas (both historically and currently) in all provinces of Iran. Together with this, I collected data about the main threats, habitat types and coexisted species in each area, observations, signs, hard facts (e.g. photo, skin, skeleton), mortalities (such as road kills, hunted individuals), injured or sick specimens, conflicts with local communities, biometry information and also information about the leopards in captivity. The early draft of the research was submitted as my bachelor thesis in 2004. However, I continued the data collection for 2 more years, and the results were published in the first volume of the book entitled Status Assessment of the Persian Leopard in Iran in the Persian language. These studies xiii

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provided a good background about the leopards in Iran, and based on that, a number of other studies were developed in various regions of the country. The current book is the result of the researches and activities which were mainly planned according to the research needs and conservation requirements identified by the earlier mentioned above studies. This book consists of two sections of which the first section is about research activities with the main focus on distribution modelling of the Persian leopard potential habitats, relative ground validations and evaluation of threshold rules, a major fragmentation in the countrywide leopard range and identification of landscape corridors, as well as transboundary habitats in the Caucasus eco-region. In this section, leopard putative range in Iran is innovatively classified into the regions according to the natural and socio-economic characteristics for the species research and conservation purposes. A novel methodology in terms of assessing cumulative effect of the land use/land cover variations on regional persistence of the Persian leopard in Iran is also elaborated in this section. In the second section of the book, conservation and management efforts including an introduction to the Persian Leopard National Conservation and Management Action Plan and the relative innovative strategic and action planning model as well as the innovative national insurance programme addressing the livestock-leopard/ wolf conflicts are presented. Illegal trade of the leopard or any related product is discussed with conservation valuation point of view for the purpose of trafficking law enforcement in Iran. The earliest book proposal was accepted by Springer, New York, for publication in 2015. The audience of this book includes a wide range of researchers and conservationists working on the large predators particularly the big cats. One of the reasons to publish this book internationally and in English language is for possible use of conservationists in the countries of the Persian leopard range (e.g. Caucasus countries, Turkmenistan, Iraq and Afghanistan). International cooperation is a main concern to improve the leopard conservation efforts in Southwest and Central Asia. Several innovative methodologies introduced in this book are of main interest for wildlife conservationists and researchers particularly cat specialists as well as land use managers and decision-makers. As the last expression, I hope this effort becomes a valuable step towards the Persian leopard conservation in their natural habitats and range in Iran and elsewhere in Southwest and Central Asia. Serdang, Malaysia

Arezoo Sanei

Acknowledgements

The writing of this book from the date of acceptance of the proposal in 2015 took about 4 years, and during this time including the research span itself, my family was the foremost supporter to me. I would like to express my great thanks and full respects to my parents, brother, sister and aunt for all their encouragements and interest to my field of research. I would like also to express my additional respects to my father, Mr. Ghavam Sanei, as the head of the municipality in various regions of Iran for several years because of his sincere attempts for environmental conservation and in particular in relation to the subject of desertification and reforestation in the relative regions. I express my thanks to the Department of Environment for their administrative cooperation and for issuing me the official announcement to lead the programme about preparation of the first Persian Leopard National Conservation and Management Action Plan in Iran. I wish to acknowledge Ms. Laleh Daraei, the national coordinator of the GEF Small Grants Program at the UNDP, for supporting the activities particularly in terms of need assessments and evaluation of the predictive models via the expert/local knowledge of 150 individuals from all regions during the Persian Leopard Regional Workshops. I wish to express my special thanks to General DoE Offices of North Khorasan, East Azarbaijan and Boushehr Provinces for their supports and relative permissions for conducting field validation techniques. I wish to acknowledge the staff of the Salook NP, Kiamaki WR and Dashtestan DoE Office and local people of Dehgah and Tang-e Fariab villages for their collaboration and cooperation through the field surveys and camera trappings. My great thanks to my colleagues in Asian Leopard Specialist Society, Mr. Farid Fasihi and Ms. Azam Jaafari, for their sincere cooperation in the projects. The works elaborated in this book are the outcomes of a number of different projects partially supported by the Global Environmental Facility Small Grant Program at the UNDP (Project No.: IRA/SGP/OP5/Y2/STAR/BD/12/02(168) and IRA/SGP/OP5/Y3/STAR/BD/13/07(183)); Provincial General Offices of the Department of Environment particularly in the provinces of Boushehr, North

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Khorasan and East Azarbaijan; and also People’s Trust for Endangered Species, Idea Wild and Dashtestan Cement Industries. Chapters 3, 4, 5 and 6 are extracted from my PhD thesis submitted to the Universiti Putra Malaysia. Chapter 9 is extracted from the MSc thesis by M. Bazghandi submitted to the University of Yazd in Iran. I wish to acknowledge both universities and supervisory committees for supporting the works. The entire book including all chapters are conducted by (or with assistance of the) Asian Leopard Specialist Society. The data archived in the Persian Leopard Online Portal, a database recording system under the Asian Leopard Specialist Society www. Persian-leopard.com, has been accessed and used in the relative researches. I am grateful to the Springer, reviewers and particularly editorial team for their valuable comments and cooperation until publication of this book. I would like also to express my appreciation and thanks to the regional assessors particularly the following persons: Region 1 Barat-Ali Bakang, Behrouz Jafari, Behrooz Khareh, Darab Khosh Safa, Eskandar Gord-Mardi, Faramarz Esfandiari, Gholam Reza Mohseni, Hasan Khan Azimi, Iraj Imani, Iman Mohamadi Abiz, Karim Asgari, Majid Agha-Miri, Mazaher Yusefi, Mehdi Siraee, Mohamad Arjomandi, Mohamad Hasein-Zadeh Tanha, Mohamad Karimi, Mohamad Khademi, Mohamad Reza Besmeli, Mohamad Taghdisi, Reza Habibi, Ruh-Allah Layegh, Shozab Ghasabi Far, Zahra Taleb-Zadeh Region 2 Abd-o-Naser Baran Zehi, Hossein Akbari, Mehdi Teimouri, Mohamad Anvar Hashem Zehi, Morteza Jamshidian, Moosa Dehghan Nejhad, Seyed Jalal Moosavi, Zahra Taki Region 3 Abdorahman Moradzadeh, Abdorasool Shahbazi, Aghayar Moradi, Ali Roshani, Alireza Hejazi, Alireza Jamadi, Alireza Mohamadi, Alireza Nemati, Amin Oshkoo, Esmail Musa-Khani, Fahimeh Gudarzi, Farideh Ahmadi, Ghodrat-Allah Davoodi, Gholam Hasan Hajiani, Hamed Saedi, Hamid-­Reza Asgarian, Khosro Darvishi, Kurosh Ariapoor, Leila Joolaei, Peivand Faramarzi, Mehdi Jamadi, Mahboobeh Poor Behi, Mina Karami, Mohamad Amin Tolab, Mohamad Tolideh, Mohsen Kheir-Allahi, Mojtaba Nasimi, Morteza Fakhraei, Mostafa Rashidi, Mostafa Moazeni, Rahim Alvandi, Reza Partovi, Sabet Jokar, Sadegh Pour-Salem, Samaneh Ghasemi, Seyedeh Zahra Seyedi, Turaj Raeisi, Zakaria Mirzaei Region 4 Akbar Khalvandi, Ayoob Ansari, Bagher Mehr Alilu, Barat Ali Iman, Behzad Shirpanjeh, Hamed Taghi Begloo, Hamed Talebi, Heidar Veisi, Jebreil Gholipoor, Mehdi Akherati, Mir Vahid Seyed Hamzeh, Mohamad Gilaneh, Mohamad Reza Masoud, Mojgan Seyed Khalil-Allahi, Naser Nabi Zadeh, Omid Yusefi, Sadegh Khosravi, Tamjid Paidar, Vahid Kar Amad

Acknowledgements

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Region 5 Ahmad Ahmadi, Afsaneh Asghar Zadeh, Abdol Aziz Panahian, Ahmad Dabaghian, Ana Mohammad Motaghi, Behrouz Aghche Li, Eesa Hesari, Hossein Alaedini, Hamird Reza Maghsudloo, Karim-Allah Tazikeh, Kuros Rabieie, Mahmoud Shakiba, Mazaher Kavardavin, Mojtaba Hoseini, Mohamad Poor Ghasem, Mohsen Raiesi, Norouz Torbati Nejhad, Omid Roshan, Ramezan Ali Rostaghi, Seyed Javad Mohamadi, Seyed Mehdi Koochak, Seyed Sahab Mira, Shahin Toumaj, Soleiman Ghorban Zadeh, Vahid Arab Amiri, Yusof Gol Mohamadi

Contents

Part I Research Programs 1 General Overview to the Research Programs in Part I������������������������    3 Arezoo Sanei 2 A King for the Mountainous Landscapes: An Overview to the Cultural Significance and Conservation Requirements of the Persian Leopard in Iran���������������������������������������������������������������   13 Arezoo Sanei, Hossein Mohamadi, Shirin Hermidas, and Hamid Reza Asgarian 3 Novel Regional Classification of Natural and Socioeconomic Characteristics for the Persian Leopard Research and Conservation Programs ������������������������������������������������������������������   51 Arezoo Sanei 4 Countrywide Distribution Modelling of the Persian Leopard Potential Habitats on a Regional Basis in Iran����������������������   81 Arezoo Sanei, Mohamed Zakaria, Laleh Daraei, Mohamad Reza Besmeli, Faramarz Esfandiari, Heidar Veisi, Hossein Absalan, and Farid Fasihi 5 Ground Validation of the Persian Leopard MaxEnt Potential Distribution Models: An Evaluation to Three Threshold Rules����������  109 Arezoo Sanei, Mohamed Zakaria, Hossein Mohamadi, Mohamad Reza Masoud, Behrouz Jafaari, Hossein Delshab, Eskandar Gordmardi, Mehdi Jamadi, Khosro Darvishi, and Sadegh Poursalem 6 An Innovative Approach for Modeling Cumulative Effect of Variations in the Land Use/Land Cover Factors on Regional Persistence of the Persian Leopard ����������������������������������  131 Arezoo Sanei, Mohamed Zakaria, Mohamad Roslan Mohamad Kasim, and Abdullah Mohd xix

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7 An Overview to the Persian Leopard Trans-boundary Habitats in the Iranian Sector of the Caucasus Ecoregion������������������  165 Arezoo Sanei, Mohamad Reza Masoud, and Hossein Mohamadi Part II Conservation and Management Practices 8 Introduction to the Persian Leopard National Conservation and Management Action Plan in Iran����������������������������  175 Arezoo Sanei, Ali Teimouri, Goli Ahmadi Fard, Hamid Reza Asgarian, and Masoud Alikhani 9 A Contingent Valuation Practice with Respect to Wildlife Trafficking Law Enforcement in Iran (Case Study: Panthera pardus saxicolor)����������������������������������  189 Maliheh Bazghandi, Yadollah Bostan, Jalil Sarhangzadeh, and Ali Teimouri 10 An Innovative National Insurance Model to Mitigate the Livestock–Leopard Conflicts in Iran ����������������������������������������������  213 Arezoo Sanei, Ali Teimouri, Reza Asadi Ahmad Abad, Shabnam Saeida, and Saeid Taheri Index������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  225

About the Editor

Arezoo  Sanei  is a leopard specialist graduated from the Universiti Putra Malaysia in the field of wildlife ecology and management. She was born in Tehran, Iran, in 1981 and has dedicated 18 years of her researches specifically to the leopard in Iran and also Malaysia. She is the founder and executive director of the Asian Leopard Specialist Society and the Persian leopard national database recording system (i.e. Persian Leopard Online Portal). Also, she has been the leader of the Persian Leopard Participatory National Action Planning Program in Iran (endorsed in 2016). Currently, she is executing a programme to develop an innovative Persian leopard national monitoring scheme in cooperation with the Department of Environment of Iran and the GEF Small Grant Program at the UNDP. She has been assigned as the strategic supervisor for executing the Persian Leopard National Action Plan at the Department of Environment of Iran since April 2019.

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About the Authors

Reza Asadi Ahmad Abad  is working in the field of insurance programmes and relative consultations. He graduated in the field of change management. Currently, he is deputy executive director in Shahr Insurance Company.

Hossein Absalan  is a senior expert in the Provincial DoE of Khorasan Razavi Province. He has graduated in the field of geography and formerly was the general director of the North Khorasan DoE Provincial Office.

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About the Authors

Maliheh  Bazghandi  has graduated from Yazd University in master of natural resource management engineering with the thesis about conservation valuation via the use of contingent valuation to estimate willingness to pay for conservation of the Persian leopard in Iran. She has been working as the GIS expert in a private company.

Mohamad  Reza  Besmeli  graduated in the field of environmental education from Payame Noor University. He is a senior expert in the Department of Environment and is currently working as the head of the Ghaen local DoE Office in South Khorasan Province.

Hossein Delshab  is a senior expert in the Department of Environment of Iran. Currently, he is the general director of the Boushehr Provincial DoE. He has graduated in the field of environment from Azad University of Tehran, Science and Research Branch.

About the Authors

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Khosro Darvishi  is a wildlife expert in the Provincial DoE of Boushehr Province. He graduated in the field of natural resource and fisheries engineering from the University of Tarbiat Modares in Tehran. He has been the head of the Wildlife Affairs Supervision Office in Boushehr Provincial DoE.

Goli Ahmadi Fard  is a senior facilitator graduated in the field of leadership and human relations from Makerere University, Uganda. Currently, she is the executive director of the Iranian Leading Facilitators Institute and the head of the International Association of Facilitators in Iran.

Eskandar Gordmardi  is a senior expert in the field of habitats and protected areas in North Khorasan Provincial DoE Office. He has graduated in the field of environmental management in Azad University of Ahvaz, Science and Research Branch. He is also a social activist in the field of environmental programmes. Currently, he is the head of the Natural Environment Office of the North Khorasan Provincial DoE.

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About the Authors

Shirin  Hermidas  is the chairperson of the board of directors in the Asian Leopard Specialist Society. She has graduated in the field of science from Tehran Daneshsara in 1974 and studied in Iran University of Science and Technology in the field of mathematics. She has been educator for 32 years in the field of life sciences and was skilled scientific coordinator among educators responsible for organizing education programmes for elevating educators’ scientific knowledge and skills.

Mohamed  Zakaria  is currently the dean of the Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia. He is a professor in Ornithology/Wildlife Ecology and is well known internationally and nationally as one of the few leading ornithologists in the Asia Pacific region. He has been appointed as regional fellow of the International Ornithological Union since 2005 and as a member of Asian Ornithological Union since 2006. In 2014, he has been elected as the executive member of the APAFRI and a co-chair of Forestry Education Committee Mechanism of APFNet. In 2018, he has been awarded “Best Professor in Forestry” by the Golden Globe Tigers under the category Education Leadership. Currently, he is very active in studying the effects of habitat disturbance particularly forest harvesting on birds and investigating indicator species for forest ecosystem health. Behrouz  Jafaari  is a senior wildlife expert in the Provincial Office of the Department of Environment of Iran, North Khorasan Province. He has graduated from the University of Tehran in the field of biology—animal science. Formerly, he was the head of the Golestan National Park in Northern Iran, and currently, he is the head of the Wildlife Affairs Supervision Office in North Khorasan Provincial DoE.

About the Authors

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Mehdi  Jamadi  graduated in the field of natural resources and environmental engineering—habitats and biodiversity—from Azad University of Ahvaz, Science and Research Branch. He is a senior expert in the Natural Environment Office in Boushehr Provincial DoE.

Mohamad  Roslan  Mohamad  Kasim  has the academic expertise in the field of applied statistics, quality management and hydrology. His focus and interest in research is more on environmental modelling specifically in the field of hydrology. However, his research is also open to other areas due to his strength in the field of statistics.

Mohamad  Reza  Masoud  is the senior wildlife expert in East Azarbaijan Provincial DoE. He graduated in natural resources and environmental engineering from Azad University of Tehran, Science and Research Branch. He has been the head of the Wildlife Affairs Supervision Office in the East Azarbaijan Provincial DoE.

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About the Authors

Hossein  Mohamadi  has been a senior expert in the Department of Environment of Iran. He graduated in the field of environment from Azad University of Tehran, Science and Research Branch. He has been general director in the Provincial DoE Offices of Ilam and Alborz Provinces as well as the Biodiversity and Wildlife Bureau in the Central Department of Environment in Tehran. Also, he was involved in the preparation of various provincial and national development and strategic plans in the field of environmental management.

Ali Teimouri  has been working as the general director and consultant at various offices (e.g. Legal and Parliamentary Office) in the Department of Environment of Iran as well as the deputy head of Iranian Fisheries Organization. Since November 2014, he has been assigned as the general director of the Conservation, Hunting and Fishing Management General Office at the central Department of Environment in Tehran.

Abbreviations

° Degree °C Degree Centigrade % Percent ′ Minute ALSS Asian Leopard Specialist Society AMV Assessed Model Value ANOVA Analysis of Variance ASL Above Sea Level AUC Area Under the Curve C City Cl. Climate D Density of the areas with habitat suitability rate of more than 0.3 DoE Department of Environment Dep. Var. Dependent Variable Dr. Dry Condition DF Dry Farming Elev. Elevation Eq. Equation ENM Ecological Niche Modelling F Forest GEF Global Environment Facility HP Human Population HPI Human Poverty Index IF Irrigated Farming LC Landscape Corridor LU/LC Land Use and Land Cover MaxEnt Maximum Entropy MR Main Road Mnts Mountains MVP Minimum Viable Population NHA No Hunting Area xxix

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NP National Park PA Protected Area PCA Principle Component Analysis PTES People’s Trust for Endangered Species r Correlation Coefficient R Range ROC Receiver Operating Characteristic SD Standard Deviation SDM Species Distribution Modelling SF Scattered Farm SR Sub-Road Topo. Topography UPM Universiti Putra Malaysia V Village Veg. Vegetation WR Wildlife Refuge

Abbreviations

Part I

Research Programs

Chapter 1

General Overview to the Research Programs in Part I Arezoo Sanei

1.1  Introduction and Definition of Key Terms 1.1.1  General Overview Fragmentation of habitats into smaller patches and loss of suitable areas and connectivity of patches in landscapes pose a serious threat to populations’ viability of various large predator species (Gerber, Karpanty, & Randrianantenaina, 2012; Johnstone, Reina, & Lill, 2010; Meffe & Carroll, 1997; Michalski & Peres, 2005). Management efforts are to provide or recreate spatial, temporal, genetic, and ecological connectivity between habitat patches (Lockwood, Worboys, & Kothari, 2006). Physical connectivity of reasonably undisturbed areas, e.g. through the wildlife corridors which connect at least two major habitats (Beier & Loe, 1992; McEuen, 1993), facilitates dispersal of individuals between remaining patches (Cushman & Landguth, 2012; With & King, 1999). This allows for the long term genetic interchange and re-colonizing the relative areas (Bond & Lake, 2003). As a result of fragmentation, serious declines occur in the total area of habitats and they split into smaller and more isolated patches (Harris, 1984; Saunders, Hobbs, & Margules, 1991). While maintaining connectivity of habitat patches in increasingly populated areas even in the same political boundary is a challenge, managing such habitats in international borderlands is a serious concern for many countries (Bennett & Mulongoy, 2006; De Jong, 2010; IUCN, 2007). Changes in vegetative composition of habitats and subsequently type and quality of the food

A. Sanei (*) Asian Leopard Specialist Society, Tehran, Iran Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 A. Sanei (ed.), Research and Management Practices for Conservation of the Persian Leopard in Iran, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28003-1_1

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base, changes in predation and competition, demographic stochastic and reduction in genetic diversity, human–predator conflicts, increasing opportunities of p­ oaching, and increasing local extinctions are among the adverse effects of habitat fragmentations (Anderson, 1999; Knaepkens, Bervoets, Verheyen, & Eens, 2004; Noss & Cooperrider, 1994; Watson, 2005). Even though large predators may persist for decades in fragmented habitats (Turner & Corlett, 1996), their long term viability in these areas is threatened by various factors, e.g., effect of human disturbances, edge effects, and reduction in immigration rates (Niebuhr et al., 2015; Turner, 1996). Thus, predicting responses of various species to habitat fragmentation, habitat loss, and reduction of habitat suitability rates caused by the land use and land cover changes is a matter of concern for conservation biologists (With & King, 1999). While each case of the land cover alternation or changes in land use could occur in a small scale, cumulative effect of these changes may perhaps produce a significant impact leading to the actual fragmentation (see also Theobald, Miller, & Hobbs, 1997). Thus, understanding the responses of the species to these changes allows for identification of priority areas and further effective management planning (Moilanen et al., 2005). Considering this overview, current section is dedicated to several research programs addressing the Persian leopard potential distribution and habitats in Iran. Therefore, to be consistent and clear throughout the section, relative ecological concepts and definition of key terms are elaborated.

1.1.2  Ecological Concepts and Definitions Population viability refers to the probability that a species or population can survive over time during ecological processes with disturbances and anthropogenic factors (LeBuhn & Miller, 2014; Vold & Buffett, 2008). In this concept, habitat conditions to support well distributed populations (Johnson et  al., 1999) and availability of suitable habitats of more than the extinction threshold is remarkable (Fahrig, 2002). Birth, death, and growth rates (LeBuhn & Miller, 2014) together with the population size (Lacy, 2019; Brown, 1971; Newmark, 1987) are the main determinants for population persistent in various species. The probability that a population goes extinct within a specified duration of time, i.e., extinction risk (Akçakaya, 2000), is linked with estimation of the minimum viable population size. Reed, O’Grady, Brook, Ballou, and Frankham (2003) defined a minimum viable population (MVP) for vertebrates as a population with 99% probability of survival for 40 generations. Yet, Flather, Hayward, Beissinger, and Stephens (2011) indicate that time frame of 50–100 years along with the extinction risk of 5% is the most common criteria being used. MVP concept was earlier defined by Shaffer (1981) as the smallest and isolated population that despite stochastic variations in environmental, genetic, and demographic conditions along with the natural devastations, still have 99% possibility to remain extant for 1000  years. Akçakaya (1992) defines three dimensions for viability of a metapopulation which

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include: (1) the probability that a metapopulation turns to extinction, (2) how much decline has to occur to turn a metapopulation into extinction level, and (3) the duration of metapopulation decline prior to the extinction. The term population refers to a group of interacting individuals in which each of them is subjected to a finite lifetime (Hanski & Gilpin, 1991). Yet, the term metapopulation refers to a group of interacting populations while these populations have also finite lifetime, thus extinction is expected for each of them (Levins, 1969, 1970). While, extinction is also influenced by the actual size of a population, effective population size addresses not only the current census but also the history of a population and if a particular population might be affected by inbreeding or genetic drift which is termed inbreeding effective size (Harmon & Braude, 2010). Franklin (1980) proposed a concept of 50/500 rule, saying that the population with inbreeding effective population size of less than 50 are instantaneously at the risk of extinction while those with the variance effective size of less than 500 face long term risk of extinction. Variance effective size refers to the quickness of isolation of populations diverged from each other under genetic drift (Harmon & Braude, 2010). While spatial arrangement of patches of habitats and dispersal corridors are related to the species persistence (Holyoak, 2000), persistence of a population could be defined as where at least one of the species subpopulations is able to persist in the region (Holden, 2008). Araújo and Williams (2000) defined a quantitative area for probability of persistence using abundance which is related to the fact that a larger number of individuals under the secure circumstances provides a greater chance for the species survival. Yet, Bertuzzo et al. (2011) defined a new macro ecological pattern about the species persistence time by means of the duration between its emergence and its local extinction in a geographic area. This is mainly under control by shorter time ecological processes such as dispersal, immigrations, and population dynamics. Estimation of persistence probability as proposed by Araújo and Williams (2000) can be calculated as:

P  Persist i ,a ,t   1  Extinction Risk i ,a ,t  Extinction Risk i ,a ,t  f

(1.1)



 Added Risk  ,p 1  occure 

Added Risk  f

i , a ,t

 Threat  ,  Vuln i  a ,t

p  occure i ,a ,t   f  Suit i ,a ,t 



(1.2) (1.3) (1.4)

Where: Vuln i is vulnerability of the species i to the identified threats in area a within time t. Suit i, a, t is the occurrence of suitable habitats in accordance with the niche concept and where the species have higher probabilities of occurrence. The niche conception has been discussed by scientists during the last decades providing a number of theories and definitions. As such, Grinnell (1917), the first

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naturalist who used the term in a research, explains niche as a subdivision of the habitat with all environmental requirements where the organism lives (see also Ayala, 1970; Grinnell, 1924, 1904). This also includes behaviors of a species and relative adaptations to persist (Khatibi & Sheikholeslami, 2016). Elton (1927) who contributed to popularity of the term with modifications (see also Elton & Miller, 1954), defined the niche as the characteristic role of an organism in the ecosystem. In other words, the niche is the place of the individual in a biotic environment as well as the relationships to the food and other organisms in the ecosystem (Elton, 2001). Thus, in the Grinnell definition the niche is considered as the address of the organism while in Elton definition, niche is the function (i.e., role) of the organism (Ayala, 1970; Elton, 1927; Elton & Miller, 1954; Grinnell, 1917). Hutchinson (1957, 1965) defined niche as a multidimensional hyper-volume of environmental states that a species requires to be able to survive, reproduce, and exist indefinitely. In this concept, fundamental niche addresses all ecological properties of the species (Hutchinson, 1957). However, in reality and under influence of various environmental conditions (such as the predation and competition), covering all relevant variables as the species requires for persistent is impossible (Colwell & Rangel, 2009; Holt, 2009). Therefore, the term realized niche was used to address the actual multidimensional hyper-volume of environmental states that the species is able to occupy under the effect of interactions with other species (Hutchinson, 1957, 1978). Accordingly, in Hutchinson’s definition of niche (1957, 1965) each population or species has only one specific niche (except for polymorphisms). However, in Eltonian niche concept, not only one species can occupy two niches, but also one niche can be occupied by more than one species at a time (Colwell & Rangel, 2009). Niche concept provides the opportunity to analyze the interactions related to the species behavior under specific environmental conditions, e.g., food niche or spatial niche (Raj, 2010; Schoener, 2009). Hutchinson’s definition of species niche and niche-biotope duality further explains geographical distribution of species (Guisan & Zimmermann, 2000; Soberόn & Peterson, 2011). The term duality between niche and biotope refers to the correspondence between the physical settings of an ecosystem (i.e., a segment of a biosphere with straight boundaries) what was called as biotope, and the space of environmental states (Hutchinson, 1957, 1978). This is the basis for ecological niche modeling (Colwell & Rangel, 2009) according to the definitions elaborated earlier. Various approaches have been developed in the recent times to quantify the relationship between environmental factors and occurrence of organisms and subsequently, bring an understanding to the distribution of biological organisms across the un-sampled areas (Miller, 2010). As such, bioclimatic envelope modelling, habitat suitability modelling, species distribution and niche modelling address almost the same concept which is about modelling the distribution of suitable environmental factors (see also Elith & Leathwick, 2009; Franklin, 2010; Hirzel & Le Lay, 2008; Pearson & Dawson, 2003; Stockwell, 2006). Yet, the species ecological niche is the core theoretical basis for such models.

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However, the terminology of species distribution modelling (SDM) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) must be clearly differentiated as geographic areas are identified and characterized distinctively (Araújo & Peterson, 2012; Elith & Leathwick, 2009; Peterson & Soberόn, 2012; Sillero, 2011). In species distribution modelling, fundamental niche is estimated which allows to identify set of areas with fundamental niche characteristics. However, areas accessible to the species during the relative time also are to be assessed. Therefore, the additional step to the niche estimation is to further investigate the ability for dispersal or the possibility of colonization (Barve et al., 2011; Franklin, 2010; Peterson & Soberόn, 2012). Phillips, Dudik, and Schapire (2004) mention that the difference between the species potential distribution and the realized distribution is about excluding the inaccessible and unoccupied areas from the range of habitats with suitable conditions for species survival. These models do not address community level questions such as richness and composition. Relatively, the definition of key terms addressed in this section is as follows: (1) Spatial scale: classification of spatial scale being used in this book is defined below in accordance with population dynamics and metapopulation concept (Hanski & Gilpin, 1991; Nouhuys, 2016): (a) Local scale: where individuals in  local populations move during their typical daily activities and they have interactions with each other while having their regularly feeding and breeding activities. A local population refers to a set of individuals with high chances of interacting with each other. (b) Metapopulation scale: when local populations are connected to each other by dispersing individuals (i.e., individuals move uncommonly from one place or population, across other habitat types which are unsuitable for their feeding and breeding, to other populations while there is a risk of failing to find a suitable habitat patch to settle). (c) Geographical scale: entire range of the species in which typically there is not any chance for individuals to move to the most parts of this range. (2) Connectivity is defined as how patches of reasonably undisturbed habitats are linked to each other either physically (e.g., corridors) or dynamically (e.g., through dispersal). Wildlife corridors which are known as features that connect at least two significant habitats (Beier & Loe, 1992; McEuen, 1993), facilitate dispersal of individuals between patches of remaining habitats and subsequently allow long term genetic interchange and re-colonize habitat patches (Bond & Lake, 2003). In this concept, IUCN (2007) classified the corridors into three forms which can range in size from small to national and regional scale corridors with areas of several million hectares: (a) Linear corridors are narrow features of about 40–80 m wide. (b) Stepping stones are small patches of habitats. As such, these patches may provide a network of habitat refuges or could be used for shelter, feeding,

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and resting while moving in landscapes with other kinds of land uses, e.g., agriculture. (c) Landscape corridors are assortments of contiguous natural areas that allows for movements between patches of habitats. This could also link cluster of protected areas or contains the areas under human use, such as agriculture. (3) Habitat fragmentation is considered as reduction in total habitat area and breaking off the habitats into smaller and more isolated patches (Harris, 1984; Saunders et al., 1991). Studies reveal that habitat loss and degradation is the most remarkable threat affecting wildlife populations (Temple, 1986; Wilcox & Murphy, 1985). (4) Extinction threshold is defined as serious reduction in patch occupancy by a metapopulation when limited range of habitat loss occurs (With & King, 1999). In the other word, as a result of habitat destruction prior to the threshold level, loss of a suitable habitat occurs. However, destruction activities beyond the threshold level result in fragmentation (see also With, 1997). (5) Nature of modelling: in the current book, ecological niche modelling concept is used. However, as the leopard has a wide distribution in Iran, thus, there is a high opportunity of dispersal to various parts of the potential range. Yet, the term potential distribution refers to the areas with suitable conditions for survival of the species (Phillips et al., 2004) aside from the fact that the area is actually occupied by the species or not and if there are any chances for dispersal or colonization. (6) Threats are defined as extrinsic human factors as well as the stochastic natural events with adverse effects on the species occurring in an area within a time frame (Araújo & Williams, 2000). (7) Species distribution is defined by the area occupied by that species or the range where individuals of the species occur. This is different from dispersal which is concerned by movements of individuals from the place of origin. Yet, dispersion is the distribution pattern of the individuals’ occurrences that is about spatial relationship among them (Mesdaghi, 2012). (8) Threshold is referred to as a cut off value that distinguishes suitable from unsuitable via identification of the minimum value for suitability (see also Young, Carter, & Evangelista, 2011).

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Chapter 2

A King for the Mountainous Landscapes: An Overview to the Cultural Significance and Conservation Requirements of the Persian Leopard in Iran Arezoo Sanei, Hossein Mohamadi, Shirin Hermidas, and Hamid Reza Asgarian

2.1  An Introduction to the Persian Leopard in Iran The Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor ranging in the south, west, and central Asia is considered as a rare subspecies in various parts of its current range. Indeed, drastic declines in the leopard population became serious by mid-twentieth century when leopards went extinct in some areas (Khorozyan & Abramov, 2007; Vereschangin, 1959). Habitat destruction and poaching are known as the main threats in which considerably affected leopard status in the region (Khorozyan & Abramov, 2007; Lukarevsky et al., 2007; Sanei, 2007; Sanei, Mousavi, Mousivand, & Zakaria, 2012; Sanei & Zakaria, 2011b). Nevertheless, guesstimated to be the home for less than 850 leopard individuals in the years earlier than 2002 (Kiabi, Dareshouri, Ghaemi, & Jahanshahi, 2002), Iran is known as the last stronghold for the Persian leopard (see also Askerov, 2002; Hatt, 1959; Khorozyan, 2003; Lukarevsky, 2001; Semenov, 2002; Zulfiqar, 2001). While the Persian leopard range in south, west, and central Asia has been limited during the past decades, the subspecies is known to be widely distributed in Iran (Sanei et  al., 2016) and also extant in Turkmenistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, A. Sanei (*) Asian Leopard Specialist Society, Tehran, Iran Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] H. Mohamadi Environment, Health and Safety Commission, Karaj City Council, Alborz, Iran Sh. Hermidas Asian Leopard Specialist Society, Tehran, Iran H. R. Asgarian Conservation, Hunting and Fishing Management General Office, Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 A. Sanei (ed.), Research and Management Practices for Conservation of the Persian Leopard in Iran, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28003-1_2

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Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Russia. However, the Persian leopard presence is uncertain in Georgia, possibly extant in Uzbekistan and possibly extinct in Tajikistan (Khorozyan, Malkhasyan, & Asmaryan, 2005; Lukarevsky et al., 2007; Stein et  al., 2016). Trans-boundary habitat connectivity allowing for dispersal through the common habitats in the Iranian boundaries with the neighboring countries is a key factor for conservation and management of the Persian leopard in the region. In Iran, historical reports denoted the leopard as a common species in mountains and hills particularly along the Alborz and Zagros mountainous chains (Birulya, 1912; Blanford, 1876; Joslin, 1990; Misonne, 1959; Pocock, 1930) except for the agriculture lands and vast plains, e.g., the deserts (Harrington & Darreshuri, 1977; Lay, 1967). However, recent countrywide studies documented the leopard presence in 74 protected and non-protected habitats out of a total of 90 investigated sites which eventually covers all provinces except for the Hamedan (Sanei, 2004, 2007; Sanei & Zakaria, 2011a). These studies suggested that 55% of leopard presence areas are protected which is well in agreement with population guesstimates by Kiabi et al. (2002). Subsequently, Sanei et al. (2016) conducted new distribution and status assessments which then hypothesized that the leopard distribution range in Iran is in the process of splitting into the northern and the southern parts (Fig. 2.1). Even though leopards are found in a variety of habitat conditions ranging from temperature of −23.1 to 49.4  °C, they are mostly recorded in the areas with 13–18  °C and duration of ice cover with less than 20  days/year and more than 200  mm/year of precipitation (Sanei & Zakaria, 2008, 2011a). Elevation of 1100–1200 m and slopes of 30–65% in Turan NP and PA (Mobargha, 2006) and elevation of 1800–2400  m and slopes of 20–70% in Kolah Ghazi NP (Omidi, Kaboli, Karami, Mahini, & Kiabi, 2010) are identified as the most suitable habitats for the leopards in the above-mentioned areas. Mountainous habitats, small rippling hills, and rough terrain with abundant preys were found as the habitat preference for the leopard in Sarigol NP (Taghdisi et al., 2013). In general, the leopard range in Iran is mostly confined to the mountainous habitats (Sanei et al., 2016; see also Fig. 2.2). The Persian leopard is known to preferably avoid deserts and anthropogenic landscapes, e.g., agriculture lands (Gavashelishvili & Lukarevskiy, 2008; Harrington & Darreshuri, 1977; Lay, 1967) as well as long-duration snow cover (Gavashelishvili & Lukarevskiy, 2008). The studies concerning the leopard ecology in Iran were handful. As such, study of territorial marking of leopards in Bamu demonstrated that most of the scrapes were claw in the winter which is known to be the mating season for the leopard in the region (Ghoddousi et al., 2008). Other reports from Sarigol NP, North Khorasan Province, indicated that the mating season was from January to February (Farhadinia, Mahdavi, & Hosseini-Zavarei, 2009). There are also numerous records of attacks of leopard on domestic dog (Canis lupus familiaris) meant for feeding which was confirmed by Fadakar, Rezaei, Hosseini, Sheykhi Ilanloo, and Zamani (2013) via DNA tools. However, studies of spatial ecology of the leopard in Tandureh NP, north-­ eastern Iran, are still on-going at the time of writing this book (Farhadinia, unpub. data).

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Fig. 2.1  The Persian leopard presence localities as investigated from 2007 to 2011. C1 refers to the confirm presence while C2 indicates probable presence (map source: Sanei et al., 2016)

Leopard presence range is known to have 100% of conformity with wild goat Capra aegagrus presence in a total of 43 study sites across Iran. In the other hand, wild sheep Ovis orientalis, wild boar Sus scrofa, and Indian crested porcupine Hystrix indica were found to be present in 95%, 65%, and 65% of the leopard presence habitats (Sanei, Zakaria, & Hermidas, 2011). Omidi et al. (2010) identified the wild goat as a main factor for leopard presence in Kolah Ghazi NP, while, in Tandureh NP, the wild goat and the wild sheep were identified as the main leopard prey (Chalani, 2005). In Golestan NP, the wild boar together with the wild sheep and the wild goat has a main part in leopard diet (Sherbafi, 2010). Attacks on domestic dogs have been frequently recorded. For instance, an old male leopard was frequently recorded to feed on domestic dogs in a village, namely Tazeh Ghaleah in northeastern Iran, close to Turkmenistan border (pers. Observ.). Such records have been made in Golestan NP using sequencing the control region of mtDNA (Fadakar

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Fig. 2.2  A leopard in a mountainous habitat of southernmost range of the Persian leopard distribution in Iran (© Asian Leopard Specialist Society, Boushehr Provincial DoE General Office)

Fig. 2.3  Wild goat Capra aegagrus (A), wild boar Sus scrofa (C) and wild sheep Ovis orientalis (D) are some of leopard prey species in Iran.  Persian fallow deer Dama mesopotamica (B)  in breeding enclosures are occasionally depredated by the leopards roaming nearby (Photo credit: (A, C)—Asian Leopard Specialist Society, (B, D)—Behrouz Jafaari)

et al., 2013). In Sarigol NP, wild sheep followed by the wild boar and wild goat were identified as the main prey for the leopard (Taghdisi et al., 2013; Fig. 2.3). Due to the variability in habitat types and conditions (see also Sunquist & Sunquist, 2002) across the Persian leopard range in Iran or elsewhere in the west, south, and central Asia, morphological features and morphometric characteristics (e.g., body size measurements, coloration, coat pattern) are also variable (Etemad, 1985; Heptner & Sludsky, 1972; Khorozyan, Baryshnikov, & Abramov, 2006; Kiabi et al., 2002; Sanei, 2007). Therefore, considering phenotypic variations and geographic extent, formerly scientists had described more than one leopard subspecies

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in Iran (e.g., P.p. dathei Zukowsky, 1959; P. p. sindica Pocock, 1930; P.p. saxicolor Pocock, 1927). However, more recent investigates including molecular genetic studies and craniometric analysis confirmed and supported the presence of one leopard subspecies in Iran, i.e., P.p. saxicolor (see also Farhadinia et  al., 2015; Miththapala, Seidensticker, & O’Brien, 1996; Khorozyan et  al., 2006; Rozhnov, Lukarevsky, & Sorokin, 2011; Ullrich & Riffel, 1993; Uphyrkina et al., 2001). On the subject of the knowledge about disease of the Persian leopard, Namroodi, Gholami, and Shariat-Bahadori (2016) conducted a study on three leopards that died in road crashes in Golestan National Park, northern Iran to test Toxoplasma gondii and rabies virus infection. Even though rabies virus infection was not detected in any of them, two of the cats were infected by T. gondii. Subsequently, they concluded that toxoplasmosis might be a notable factor in leopard road kills. Taxocara cati was recorded in two other leopards (male and female) in Golestan NP, while parasites found in the female individual were seven times more than the male individual in the same area (Ghaemi, Sadr-Shirazi, & Ghaemi, 2011). Ancylostoma tubaeforme was recorded in a young female illegally killed in Semnan Province (Youssefi, Sh, Hoseini, Zaheri, & Tabari, 2010). Shistosoma spp. was recorded in one leopard feces in Degarmanli site in Golestan NP (Persian Leopard Online Portal,1 unpublished records, accessed 07 August 2012). Mowlavi et  al. (2009) detected Trichinella britovi in a leopard as they recovered larvae from the specimen muscles.

2.2  Significance in the Iranian Culture and Art Formerly, Iran was the home to a total of three members of the genus Panthera including the Persian lion (Panthera leo persica), the Caspian tiger (Panthera tigris virgata), and the Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor). However, after extinction of the lion and the tiger (about 60 and 52  years ago, accordingly; Faizolahi, 2016; Khosravifard & Niamir, 2016), the Persian leopard is the last remaining of the Panthera genus in Iran. Thus it has a unique importance for both ecological health of natural ecosystems as well as the cultural heritage in this country. In general, the big cats (i.e., lion, tiger, and leopard) have a great influence in the Iranian symbolization. For instance, since 1846 until Iran revolution in 1979, lion and the sun were the elements of the Iran’s national flag. Likewise, the lion has been one of the main symbols in the Persepolis, the ceremonial capital of the Achaemenid Persian Empire (ca. 550–330 BC). In the art works (e.g., painting, architecture, carpet weaving, and literature) remained from various localities of Iran in centuries, the lion, tiger, and leopard are denoted as symbols of strength, intelligence, bravery, justice, and valor (see also

 Persian Leopard Online Portal www.Persian-leopard.com.

1

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Fig. 2.4  An illustration with Opaque watercolor, ink, and gold on paper in the scribe of Qotb al-­ Din b. Hasan al-Tuni (originated from Mashhad or Qazvin) survived from 1580 showing the Bahram Gur, the king of Persia, who slays a lion (The Fitzwilliam Museum, downloaded: 08.02.2018)

Figs. 2.4 and 2.5). As such, poems by Ferdowsi (940–1020 CE) in the Persian epic of the kings (or Shahnameh) are denoted. In this book where Tahmineh, a character in Rostam and Sohrab story, is introducing herself is written: I am Tahmineh, the daughter of the King of Samengan, of the race of the leopard and the lion.2

 Translated by H. Zimmern. Ames, Iowa, 2000.

2

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Fig. 2.5  Battle of the king, Darius the Great, with a lion in the Tachara Palace in Persepolis, the ceremonial capital of the Achaemenid Empire (located in Fars Province), ca. 550–330 BC (Photo: Omeed Aghaee)

A famous legendary of Iran, namely Rostam who is a hero in Shahnameh (epic of the kings), used to wear a kind of suit made of the leopard skin (namely Palangineh) in the battles. After his death, the suit was handed to Faramarz, his son. Elsewhere in the Epic, where Afrasiyab (the king of Turan endowed with magical powers to destroy the civilization of Iran) asked Kei-Khosrow if he would go into the land of Iran to avenge upon his enemies, Kei-Khosrow answered:

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A. Sanei et al. When a leopard appeareth, the heart of a brave man is torn with fear.3

Shams-ud-Din Mohammad Hafez-e Shirazi (1325/1326–1389/1390 ce) says in the book of Ghazals (a poetic form): The acclivity and declivity of love’s desert is calamity’s snare A lion-hearted one is where, who not calamity shunneth?4

Sohrab Sepehri (1928–1980), a famous Iranian poet in modern Persian poetry, has wrote in the poem, namely sound of water’s footsteps: … Let’s not wish the leopard to exit from the gate of creation … And we should know that life lacked something, if the worms did not exist… And without a scratch on its bark, the law of tree would be offended … And if there were no death, our hands would search for something else … And we should know that before corals, a void existed in the thoughts of seas …5

According to a folktale about the leopard and the moon, a leopard may not tolerate anything overhead. In the full moon nights, tragedy happens when the leopard tries to reach to the moon from the peak of the mountain. The leopard broken pride and its injured body over the sharp cliffs after clawing at the moon with no success vanishes the desire to reach for the moon (see also moon and the leopard by Hossein Monzavi, 1946–2003). Among other art works, in the paintings remained from eighth century, Iranian kings are shown with clothes made of a leopard coat which denotes strength and bravery of the kings. Yet, some elements in the Iranian carpets are influenced by the leopard, tiger, and lion symbols and the signs (e.g., Figs. 2.6 and 2.7; Hermidas, 2011). Figure 2.8 shows a silver plate remained from Sasanian Empire (224–651 ad) with engraving of a lion hunting a prey. All these facts indicate that large cats including the leopard which has a vast distribution in the country had a great influence on local communities during the centuries. Yet, the leopard is somehow recognized as the king of the mountains in Iran (Zakaria & Sanei, 2011).

2.3  Conservation Requirements Habitat destruction, degradation, and fragmentation are reported as the main factors threatening leopard population in the national (Sanei & Zakaria, 2011b; Sanei et al., 2016) and local scale (e.g., Erfanian, Mirkarimi, Mahini, & Rezaei, 2013; Ghoddousi, Hamidi, Ghadirian, Ashayeri, & Khorozyan, 2010; Ghoddousi et al., 2008; Sanei, 2007). A total of 71 leopard mortalities have been recorded from 2007

 Translated by H. Zimmern. Ames, Iowa, 2000.  Translated by H. Wilberforce Clarke. Calcutta, India, 1891. 5  Translation of this poem is selected from www.sohrabsepehri.com (accessed 01 October 2018). See also Attari-Kermani (2016). 3 4

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Fig. 2.6  A hunting leopard in a Persian carpet (Carpet Museum of Iran www.carpetmuseum.ir, downloaded: 08.02.2018)

Fig. 2.7  A carpet originally from Kerman Province of Iran and belongs to the mid to late nineteenth century (Nazmiyal collection www.nazmiyalantiquerugs.com, downloaded: 08.02.2018)

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Fig. 2.8  A silver plate remained from Sasanian Empire (224–651 ad) showing a lion hunting a prey (Photo: Mojarrad Takestani, 2016)

to 2011 in which 70% (n = 50) of them were as a result of intentional hunting and poisoning. Besides, 18% (n  =  13) of the mortality cases were due to the road ­accidents (Sanei et al., 2012). In general, officially recorded leopard mortalities in Iran from 2007 to 2015 include 152 cases while 19 additional cases are not confirmed (Sanei et al., 2015). Depredation on wide range of livestock mostly including domestic sheep and goat (n = 7090) and to a lesser extent camel, caw, donkey, horse, and mule (n = 208 kills) has been recorded (Sanei et al., 2020a). Attacks on herding dogs are also frequent (Sanei et al., 2016). Dry condition, serious prey reduction, presence of animal husbandry and livestock in leopard habitats, low ecological awareness, aftermath of Iraq and Iran (Sanei & Zakaria, 2011b; Sanei et al., 2016), and possibly presence of landmines in trans-boundary leopard areas in the neighboring Caucasus habitats (see also WWF, 2016)  are some other threats affecting leopard status in Iran. We conducted an assessment during the first phase of the Persian Leopard Regional Workshops (2012–2013) via facilitating regional focus group discussions among invited participants from local communities to address the current threats and conservation requirements in a regional basis (see also Sanei, 2020 for classification of regions). The assessment mostly covers the fundamental and awareness

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requirements as well as disturbances to the leopard persistence in each area. We also developed problem trees targeting at two main topics of (1) habitat loss, d­ egradation, and isolation and (2) species high mortality rates. The results are summarized in the following sections. The assessed data is used to implement further management and conservation activities which is indicated at the end of the section.

2.3.1  Threats and Conservation Requirements in Region 1 Main Assessors  Barat-Ali Bakang, Behrouz Jafari, Behrouz Khareh, Darab Khosh Safa, Eskandar Gord-Mardi, Faramarz Esfandiari, Gholam Reza Mohseni, Hasan Khan Azimi, Iraj Imani, Iman Mohamadi Abiz, Karim Asgari, Majid Agha-Miri, Mazaher Yusefi, Mehdi Siraee, Mohamad Arjomandi, Mohamad Hasein-Zadeh Tanha, Mohamad Karimi, Mohamad Khademi, Mohamad Reza Besmeli, Mohamad Taghdisi, Reza Habibi, Ruh-Allah Layegh, Shozab Ghasabi Far, Zahra Taleb-Zadeh Covered Area  Provinces of Alborz, Razavi Khorasan, North Khorasan, South Khorasan, Semnan, Tehran, and Ghom (a) Awareness –– In general, lack of knowledge among local communities about importance of the leopard and environmental issues In North Khorasan Province, the areas, namely Bojnourd, Rein and Arkan, Dehgah, Khor-Khori Cave: –– Occasionally, inappropriate communication skills of wildlife wardens in relation with local communities –– Lack of knowledge of local communities about wildlife conservation issues In Shoghan and Aladagh: –– Mistrust of local communities to the wildlife wardens and DoE staff –– Lack of public awareness about wildlife in general and importance of carnivores in the ecosystem In Salouk PA and NP, Sarmaran region: –– Lack of knowledge of local communities about compensation programs –– Lack of  differentiation between legal hunters vs. illegal poachers that causes additional negative responses from hunters In Jargalan and Gholaman: –– Revenge killings by local communities due to the lack of knowledge about compensation programs

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(b) Fundamental In Alborz Province, Alborz PA, Sirvan village: –– Lack of sufficient notice boards to show borders of the protected areas –– Low income for the local people –– Since the area is mountainous, establishing farms and in particular industrial farms for animal husbandry and agriculture is problematic –– Young people are usually jobless and there is lack of occupation opportunities such as carpet weaving and spinning –– Lack of practical programs to reduce human/livestock-carnivore conflicts In Razavi Khorasan: –– Lack of financial support for the areas under auspice of DoE –– Lack of efficient personnel in the areas under auspice of DoE –– Lack of defined procedures to facilitate contribution  of local communities for conservation purposes In South Khorasan, Zir-Kuh and Ghaen Townships: –– Excess of hunting guns/shotguns among local people is a main threat to the prey species in non-protected habitats In North-Khorasan Province, areas called Bojnourd, Rein and Arkan, Dehgah, Khor-Khori Cave: –– There is no proper collaboration among two organizations related to the habitat management issues (i.e., Department of Environment and Department of Forest and Pasture, Ministry of Agriculture) –– Inefficiency of the relative units in supporting rights of local communities –– Lack of investment for awareness raising programs In Sarigol PA and NP, Golul and Sarani PA: –– Presence of non-experts in management roles in various levels in DoE –– Requirements of local communities have not been taken into account in conservation programs –– Lack of facilities and personnel –– Lack of a unit dedicated to the participation of local communities in DoE and provincial DoE offices –– Low income for local people –– Lack of conservation facilities and wildlife wardens –– Lack of awareness raising programs in the region In Salouk PA and NP, Sarmaran region: –– Low income  for the local people and difficulties for agriculture and cultivation activities –– Lack of conservation facilities and wildlife wardens –– Lack of proper legal supports for DoE personnel and in particular wildlife wardens

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In Jargalan and Gholaman: –– Lack of conservation facilities and wildlife wardens –– Immigration of young generations in villages to the cities as a result of lack of income earned from cultivation and agriculture (c) Disturbances In Alborz Province, Alborz PA, Sirvan village: –– Increase of human population in the Sirjan village with no development in the facilities In South Khorasan Province, Zir-Kuh and Ghaen townships6: –– Animal  husbandry is considered as a source of income for local communities living in and around the leopard habitats –– Young people are usually jobless and have the potential for illegal occupations –– Habitat destruction –– Irregular grazing of livestock, cutting shrubs, and continuous dry condition –– Intensive illegal hunting of bustard in Petergan plain that causes unsafety in the area –– Illegal hunting for the purpose of illegal trade In North-Khorasan Province, Sarigol PA and NP, Golul and Sarani PA: –– Habitat disturbances and loss of biodiversity –– Illegal hunting In Salouk PA and NP, Sarmaran region: –– Illegal and irregular hunting –– Wildlife road crashes because of presence of a road in the boundary of the area In Jargalan and Gholaman: –– Local people use various methods for revenge killings following by various types of damages to the agriculture products and animal husbandries caused by wildlife species –– Some of these methods such as poisonous lures may affect a wide range of species existed in the area –– Some of the damages are to the cultivation products and agriculture fields by the leopard potential prey species including the wild boar and porcupine –– Damages also include attacks of wolves to the livestock as well as poultry depredation by foxes and jackals

 It is worth mentioning that presence of leopard in this area was recently confirmed through the camera trappings by MR Besmeli and his colleagues. 6

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–– Some cases of wildlife attacks to human (unintentional encounters) were recorded in this region

2.3.2  Threats and Conservation Requirements in Region 2 Main Assessors  Abd-o-Naser Baran Zehi, Hossein Akbari, Mehdi Teimouri, Mohamad Anvar Hashem Zehi, Morteza Jamshidian, Moosa Dehghan Nejhad, Seyed Jalal Moosavi, Zahra Taki. Covered Area  Provinces of Esfahan, Yazd, Kerman, Sistan and Baloochestan (a) Awareness In Esfahan Province, Mooteh WR: –– Lack of knowledge of hunters about ecological importance of the leopard in the habitats –– Perception of hunters about hunting of a leopard as a measure of strength and bravery –– Lack of public awareness about the food web and importance of carnivore conservation in the natural ecosystems –– Fear of the leopard among local people and lack of knowledge about behavior of the species In Sistan and Baloochestan Province, Birk PA, Puzak PA, Bazman district, Daman village, Gohar-Kouh and Taftan Moutains, Nikshahr Town: –– Lack of awareness about environmental issues In Yazd Province –– Lack of awareness of local authorities and communities about importance of carnivores and environmental issues –– Conflicts of local communities with local authorities about establishment of a road, namely Gazu that crosses the leopard and the cheetah habitats –– Erroneous beliefs and thoughts causing disturbances to the habitats and wildlife species (b) Fundamental In Esfahan Province, Mooteh WR: –– Insufficient number of DoE personnel –– Destruction and fragmentation of the leopard areas and easily accessible habitats In Sistan and Baloochestan Province, Birk PA, Puzak PA, Bazman district, Daman village, Gohar-Kouh and Taftan Moutains, Nikshahr Town:

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–– –– –– ––

Insufficient number of DoE personnel and wildlife wardens Deficiency of field stations for wildlife wardens Private ownership for the areas located inside the habitats Lack of an effective program for compensating livestock losses to the carnivores –– Dependence of local communities to the livestock as the main source of income –– Lack of local NGOs in the area In Yazd Province, in general: –– Lack of active local NGOs –– Lack of co-operation among people and authorities regarding conservation of the species –– Weakness in legal supports in terms of conservation activities –– Lack of co-operation among governmental organizations concerning the issues related to the conservation of the species –– Allocation of low financial supports to the research and conservation programs In Bafgh PA: –– –– –– ––

Management weakness Insufficient number of wildlife wardens and conservation facilities Low salary and lack of financial supports from wildlife wardens Dependence of local communities to the habitats and livestock as the source of income –– Deficiency of other occupation opportunities for local communities In Mehriz Township: –– Insufficient number of wildlife wardens and deficiency in conservation facilities –– Necessity of conducting studies to convert conservation values of habitats and wildlife to financial measures –– Lack of a suitable plan to secure local benefits from the surrounding protected and natural areas in accordance with the conservation goals –– Low income for local communities –– Deficiency of conservation facilities In Buruyieh WR: –– Deficiency of conservation facilities and insufficient number of wildlife wardens In Ariz No Hunting Area and neighboring non-protected habitats: –– Insufficient number of wildlife wardens and conservation facilities In Shir-Kuh PA: –– Presence of settlements and private ownership for the areas inside the habitat (c) Disturbances

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In Esfahan Province, Muteh WR: –– Excess of hunting weapons among people –– Revenge killings and illegal hunting In Sistan and Baloochestan Province, Birk PA, Puzak PA, Bazman district, Daman village, Gohar-Kouh and Taftan Moutains, Nikshahr Town: –– –– –– ––

Cutting trees and shrubs (e.g., for firewood) Pasture exploitation Shared water resources in the habitats for livestock and wildlife Illegal hunting of prey species In Yazd Province, Bafgh PA:

–– –– –– ––

Habitat disturbances Illegal hunting of prey species Excess of cattle inside the habitats Establishing road from Sabz-Dasht to Bafgh that crosses the safety zone In Mehriz Township:

–– –– –– –– –– –– ––

Habitat disturbances (development programs) Illegal hunting of leopard and their prey Use of poisonous lures Habitat degradation due to the road establishments Lack of monitoring programs in non-protected habitats Livestock grazing and presence of animal husbandries inside the habitats Illegal hunting of leopards and their prey In Buruyieh WR:

–– Presence of livestock and animal husbandries inside the habitats –– Poaching of prey species In Ariz No Hunting Area and neighboring non-protected habitats: –– Illegal hunting of prey –– Irregular grazing of camels in the pastures –– Habitat exploitations and mining

2.3.3  Threats and Conservation Requirements in Region 3 Main Assessors  Abdorahman Moradzadeh, Abdorasool Shahbazi, Aghayar Moradi, Ali Roshani, Alireza Hejazi, Alireza Jamadi, Alireza Mohamadi, Alireza Nemati, Amin Oshkoo, Esmail Musa-Khani, Fahimeh Gudarzi, Farideh Ahmadi, Ghodrat-Allah Davoodi, Gholam Hasan Hajiani, Hamed Saedi, Hamid-Reza Asgarian, Khosro Darvishi, Kurosh Ariapoor, Leila Joolaei, Peivand Faramarzi,

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Mehdi Jamadi, Mahboobeh Poor Behi, Mina Karami, Mohamad Amin Tolab, Mohamad Tolideh, Mohsen Kheir-Allahi, Mojtaba Nasimi, Morteza Fakhraei, Mostafa Rashidi, Mostafa Moazeni, Rahim Alvandi, Reza Partovi, Sabet Jokar, Sadegh Pour-Salem, Samaneh Ghasemi, Seyedeh Zahra Seyedi, Turaj Raeisi, Zakaria Mirzaei. Covered Area  Provinces of Boushehr, Chahar  Mahal and Bakhtiari, Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Khuzestan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad and Lorestan. (a) Awareness In Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Province, Tang-e-Sayad PA: –– Lack of training programs for wildlife wardens –– Lack of knowledge of local people about laws and regulations as well as ecological importance and behavior of the leopard In Sabz-Kuh PA: –– Lack of training programs for wildlife wardens –– Lack of knowledge of local communities about importance and behavior of the species In Helen PA: –– Lack of knowledge of local communities about behavior and ecological role of the leopard in the habitats In Fars Province, Firuz Abad Township and Padena No Hunting Area: –– Interest of local communities in hunting –– Cultural issues related to symbolization of hunting as a sign of bravery and strength and a way to gain fame –– Lack of knowledge about values of carnivores In Khuzestan Province, Mongasht Mountains: –– Fear of local communities about the leopard presence in surrounding areas –– Lack of awareness raising programs and regular meetings with local communities concerning relative topics –– Lack of an integrated conservation program with active participation of local communities In Boushehr Province, villages in Boushkan and Eram Districts in Dashtestan County: –– Lack of knowledge of local communities about importance of large carnivores and specifically the large cats –– Inefficient communication of wildlife wardens with local communities –– Lack of awareness raising programs for local communities and shepherds

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In Dehak Mountain in Deilam Township: –– Lack of educational and awareness raising programs in the villages In Ilam Province, Kabir-Kouh PA: –– Perception of local communities about hunting of leopards as a measure for bravery –– Lack of awareness among local people about importance of wildlife and role of local people in conservation programs In Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Dena, Eastern Dena, Soulak, Sivak, Khorram-Naz: –– Lack of sufficient training programs for DoE personnel in relative divisions addressing conservation topics –– Inefficient communication of wildlife wardens and DoE experts with local communities –– Considering the leopard hunting as a measure of bravery by local communities –– Traditional thoughts such as utility of various parts of leopard for sorcery and medical treatments –– Lack of knowledge of local authorities about importance of carnivores and weakness in sharing the perception with local communities (b) Fundamental In Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari, Tang-e-Sayad PA: –– –– –– –– ––

Insufficient number of wildlife wardens Lack of conservation facilities Lack of a financial plan for conservation activities Weakness in relative regulations Lack of active NGOs In Sabz-Kuh PA:

–– –– –– –– ––

Lack of conservation facilities Lack of trained personnel Weakness in relative law and regulations Private ownership for the lands inside the habitats Poaching by local people because of fear of large carnivores In Helen PA:

–– –– –– –– ––

Insufficient number of wildlife wardens Inadequate financial supports for conservation activities Weakness in relative law and regulations Lack of occupation opportunities for local people Poaching because of fear of large carnivores

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In Fars Province, non-protected areas of Firuz Abad Township, Padena No Hunting Area: –– Insufficient number of wildlife wardens –– Lack of conservation facilities dedicated to No Hunting Areas –– Inappropriate penalty amount to prevent poachers and hunters from illegal hunting (see also section 2.3.6 for the relative implemented activity) –– Inefficient compensation programs and late payments for the losses –– Dependence of local communities to livestock and animal husbandry –– Low income for the local communities In Khuzestan Province, Mongasht Mountains: –– Conducting short term and temporary programs with no clear result and evaluations –– Lack of detail studies on leopard status in the province –– Occasional inappropriate regulations –– Low income for local communities In Boushehr Province, Boushkan District: –– Lack of DoE personnel –– Lack of off-road vehicles –– Lack of facilities (e.g., binoculars, camera traps for monitoring programs) In Eram District: –– Lack of field stations for wildlife wardens in the region and far distance to the other conservation units –– Lack of personnel and conservation facilities In Khaeez area: –– Lack of sufficient vehicles for wildlife wardens –– Inefficient compensation programs with very late payments for the livestock losses to carnivores In Dehak Mountain in Deilam Township: –– Lack of vehicles and insufficient number of personnel –– Deficiency of facilities (such as camera traps for monitoring wildlife) –– Lack of job opportunities for local people in the region In Ilam, Kabir-Kouh PA: –– Insufficient number of wildlife wardens –– Low income and lack of occupation opportunities for the local communities living around leopard habitats –– Increase in the human population which is not proportionate to the facilities in the villages

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In Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Dena, Eastern Dena, Soulak, Sivak, Khorram-Naz: –– Lack of support from local NGOs –– Weakness in hunting regulations –– Lack of concern of other organizations about conservation and environmental issues –– Lack of an integrated conservation program with the relative financial plans in DoE (see section 2.3.6 for the relative implemented activity)  –– Animal husbandry is a main source of income for local communities and as a result, they consider the leopard as a main  problem because of conflicts with livestock in the area (c) Disturbances In Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari, Tang-e-Sayad PA: –– Livestock grazing in the habitat –– Habitat disturbances caused by nearby villages In Sabz-Kuh PA: –– Presence and grazing of livestock in the habitat –– Cutting trees for timber (as a source of income) –– Farming and cultivation lands In Helen PA: –– Presence of animal husbandries and livestock grazing in the habitats –– Cutting trees for charcoal and timber that is a source of income In Khuzestan Province, Mongasht Mountains: –– Intensive food deficiencies for the leopard –– Vast distribution of livestock in the habitats In Andimeshk-Durud railroad area: –– Wildlife crashes by the train In Boushehr Province, Boushkan and Eram Districts: –– Increasing number of livestock and lack of pasture –– Hunting of prey species because of low income for personal use and also trade In Dehak Mountain in Deilam Township: –– Presence of oil pipeline and programs in the area –– Presence of illegal hunters in the region –– Disturbance by the existing villages In Ilam Province, Kabir-Kouh PA: –– Dry condition in the habitat

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–– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––

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Declining prey species population Road construction and habitat fragmentation Excess of hunting weapon among local people Illegal hunting of the leopards and the prey species Declines in food and water resources Cutting trees for charcoal and timber as a source of income Excess of cattle in key habitats Connection of local people with illegal hunters in the towns and sharing local information with them

In Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province (Dena, Eastern Dena, Soulak, Sivak, Khorram-Naz): –– Excess of hunting weapon among local people and their interest in hunting of the leopard and the wild goat

2.3.4  Threats and Conservation Requirements in Region 4 Main Assessors  Akbar Khalvandi, Ayoob Ansari, Bagher Mehr Alilu, Barat Ali Iman, Behzad Shirpanjeh, Hamed Taghi Begloo, Hamed Talebi, Heidar Veisi, Jebreil Gholipoor, Mehdi Akherati, Mir Vahid Seyed Hamzeh, Mohamad Gilaneh, Mohamad Reza Masoud, Mojgan Seyed Khalil-Allahi, Naser Nabi Zadeh, Omid Yusefi, Sadegh Khosravi, Tamjid Paidar, Vahid Kar Amad. Covered Area  Provinces of Ardebil, East Azarbaijan, Ghazvin, Hamedan, Kermanshah, Kurdestan, Markazi, West Azarbaijan and Zanjan.7 (a) Awareness In Ardebil Province including Sabalan Mountains, Agh Dagh PA and Southern Khalkhal Township: –– Lack of awareness raising programs for local communities In East Azarbaijan Province, Kantal: –– Lack of active local NGOs, educational and awareness raising programs In Dizmar and Kaghaz-Konan: –– Lack of awareness raising and educational programs In Ghazvin Province, Alamout No Hunting Area:

 Iranian part of the Caucasus Ecoregion is mainly located in this region.

7

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–– A need for awareness raising programs, attracting attention of local communities to the importance of prey species in conservation of large carnivores and reducing conflicts with livestock –– To improve perception of managers in the provincial DoE office and other related organizations in the province regarding conservation of endangered species and biodiversity In Western-Alamout No Hunting Area: –– Lack of expert groups to launch programs for active participation of local communities in wildlife conservation activities In Tarom No Hunting Area: –– Executing training programs for wildlife wardens (before employment as new personnel to protect the area) In Hamedan Province: –– Lack of long-term awareness raising programs –– To conduct conservation programs with participation of local communities living around the habitats –– To support establishment of local NGOs for involvement in awareness raising and conservation program –– Empowerment of groups of local people with significant influence on their community In Kermanshah Province, Paveh Township: –– Lack of awareness raising programs In Kordestan Province, Oraman village: –– To use capacities of currently existed active local NGOs in this area for participatory conservation programs In Markazi Province, Haftad Gholleh PA, Alvand PA and Rasvand WR: –– To conduct awareness raising programs for local communities covering the villages inside and surrounding of the habitats In West Azarbaijan Province, Marakan PA: –– Training programs for wildlife wardens particularly concerning the use of GPS and GIS –– Encouragement and acknowledgment programs for local communities when they participate in the conservation practices –– To establish programs that also benefit local communities close to the areas under protection by the government to encourage them for participating in conservation programs –– To facilitate and encourage establishment of local NGOs

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–– Conducting awareness raising programs addressing environmental issues and importance of wildlife conservation (in particular carnivores) in the region In Zanjan Province: –– In general, training and awareness raising programs for DoE personnel –– Awareness raising programs for local communities in leopard areas (particularly concerning importance of carnivores in the ecosystems) –– Programs to encourage replacing the hunting weapons (available among local people and hunters) with camera units (b) Fundamental In Ardebil Province including Sabalan Mountains, Agh Dagh PA and Southern Khalkhal Township: –– Lack of conservation and research facilities (e.g., vehicles, camera traps) In East Azarbaijan Province, Kantal: –– Insufficient number of off-road vehicles and motorcycles –– Non-local wildlife wardens who are not well familiar with the area and thus they are not respected by local communities –– Occasionally, non-local wildlife wardens do not feel responsible enough to efficiently protect the area In Dizmar and Kaghaz konan: –– –– –– –– ––

Lack of field station for wildlife wardens Insufficient number of off-road vehicles and motorcycles Lack of active local NGOs Inefficient co-operation with highway patrol and traffic police Low income for local communities causes intensive hunting of leopard prey species in the region –– Introducing new job opportunities that are suitable for the local conditions could considerably reduce hunting pressure on prey population In Ghazvin Province, Alamout No Hunting Area: –– It is urgently required to improve protection status of the area –– Insufficient number of off-road vehicles and trained wildlife wardens to protect the area In Western-Alamout No Hunting Area: –– To improve conservation status of the habitat –– Lack of conservation facilities such as off-road vehicles and camera traps –– It is very crucial to conduct an efficient compensation program to pay for the losses of livestock due to the conflicts with carnivores –– To introduce the area as a habitat at the risk of damage

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In Tarom No Hunting Area: –– To improve the status of the habitat to a protected area (see Sanei et al., 2020b: Chap. 3 in this book for more details about importance of the habitat) –– Lack of trained wildlife wardens –– To establish field station for wildlife wardens in eastern part of the area In Hamedan Province: –– A need for conducting fundamental research programs –– To reduce issuing permissions for hunting the prey species –– To manage garbage heaps and landfill sites around the habitats to prevent further increase in the population of stray dogs and subsequent attacks on lambs and kids –– To conserve water resources, prevent irregular water withdrawal that eventually affects water resources in the habitats –– Low income for the local communities and requirement for introducing new occupation opportunities suitable for the local conditions –– To identify and consolidate factors of strength in local conditions (e.g., cultural, financial, community subjects) for the purpose of empowerment of stakeholders and their participation in sustainable development –– Awareness raising for decision makers and managers in development programs regarding environmental issues In Kermanshah Province, Paveh Township: –– Lack of information about status of the leopards and their prey in this region In Kordestan Province, Oraman village: –– Lack of conservation facilities and field stations for wildlife wardens that causes less conservation efforts and practices in the region –– To compensate losses of livestock to the large carnivores In Markazi Province, Haftad Gholleh PA, Alvand PA and Rasvand WR: –– Even though the area is a leopard habitat with previous records of the species, most recently leopard records in this area are very rare. Thus, research equipment such as camera traps as well as conservation facilities and employment of more personnel to protect the area (i.e., wildlife wardens) are required –– To introduce occupations suitable for local conditions and attract local communities for participatory conservation practices In West Azarbaijan, Marakan PA: –– Insufficient number of wildlife wardens in the region –– Requirement for systematic camera trapping  for research and monitoring purposes –– To establish a group among local wildlife wardens in the region to focus on species-specific conservation practices

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–– To equip wildlife wardens with facilities required for wildlife conservation and monitoring practices and train the relative personnel for using the new equipment –– To evaluate possibility and effects of altering animal husbandry by local communities from small livestock to large cattle In Zanjan Province: –– To compensate losses of livestock to the leopard and other carnivores –– To conduct area-specific programs to protect wild goat as a main prey for the leopard (c) Disturbances In Ardebil Province, Sabalan Mountains, Agh Dagh PA and Southern Khalkhal Township: –– Illegal hunting of wildlife species –– Illegal mining and exploitations in the habitats –– Increasing construction activities In East Azarbaijan Province: –– Illegal hunting –– Habitat destruction and fragmentations (see also Sanei, Masoud, Mohamadi, 2020; Sanei et  al., 2020b, 2020c for more details on habitats’ status in this province). In Ghazvin Province, Alamout No Hunting Area: –– Currently (at the time of this assessment), construction activities for the purpose of road establishment are taking place in this area which is disturbing a main leopard habitat in the region In Hamedan Province: –– To prevent further development of farms and agriculture lands that causes destruction of pasture and fragmentation of habitats –– Irregular and illegal grazing In Kermanshah Province, Paveh Township: –– –– –– ––

Illegal and irregular hunting and poaching of wildlife including prey species. Hunting for fur trade Excess of hunting weapons among people Habitat disturbances and fragmentations In Kordestan Province, Jhivar village:

–– Construction of two dams (namely Darian and Belbor) in this region that divide one of a very last remaining leopard habitats in the area to two fragmented parts (i.e., Shahu and Kuhsalan)

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In Markazi Province, Haftad Gholleh PA, Alvand PA, and Rasvand WR: –– Irregular grazing of livestock –– Some people in local communities work as local leaders for illegal hunters to earn money –– Illegal hunting In West Azarbaijan: –– In general, traditional beliefs such as use of various parts of the specimens’ body for sorcery and medical treatments In West Azarbaijan Province, Marakan PA: –– A critical threat (at the time of this assessment) is constructing an airport in the area –– In relation to the Aras Free Trade—Industrial Zone located in the region, establishment of roads and availability of fences (particularly on the way of the corridors connecting Kiamaki WR and Marakan PA) –– Presence of livestock in the area more than capacity of the pastures –– Development of roads In Zanjan Province: –– Excess of hunting weapons among people –– Dependence of local community on animal husbandry and mining activities –– Illegal hunting of prey species and in particular, the wild goat

2.3.5  Threats and Conservation Requirements in Region 5 Main Assessors  Ahmad Ahmadi, Afsaneh Asghar Zadeh, Abdol Aziz Panahian, Ahmad Dabaghian, Ana Mohammad Motaghi, Behrouz Aghche Li, Eesa Hesari, Hossein Alaedini, Hamird Reza Maghsudloo, Karim-Allah Tazikeh, Kuros Rabieie, Mahmoud Shakiba, Mazaher Kavardavin, Mojtaba Hoseini, Mohamad Poor Ghasem, Mohsen Raiesi, Norouz Torbati Nejhad, Omid Roshan, Ramezan Ali Rostaghi, Seyed Javad Mohamadi, Seyed Mehdi Koochak, Seyed Sahab Mira, Shahin Toumaj, Soleiman Ghorban Zadeh, Vahid Arab Amiri, Yusof Gol Mohamadi Covered Area  Provinces of Golestan, Mazandaran and Gilan (a) Awareness In Golestan Province, Ziarat village: –– Lack of awareness raising programs about ecological importance of large carnivores

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In Loveh, Minu-Dasht: –– Lack of education and awareness raising programs in the villages located in the boundaries of the habitats –– Lack of active NGOs in the area In Gonbad-e-Kavous, Ramian Township and Paghaleh region: –– Lack of knowledge of local communities about the environmental issues –– Lack of educational programs for relative managers and authorities In Jahan-Nama PA: –– Lack of awareness raising programs about importance of carnivores including the leopard in the area –– Lack of knowledge of local communities about the leopard and fear of species In Ali-Abad Township: –– Lack of knowledge about leopard behavior among local communities and problems in differentiating leopards’ attacks from conflicts with other species –– Lack of knowledge of local communities about importance of the leopard in the food web In Golestan NP: –– Lack of knowledge among local communities about environmental issues –– Lack of knowledge of non-local wildlife wardens about local conditions –– Lack of proper educational programs for local people (e.g., for school aged children and adults) In Mazandaran Province: –– In general, lack of knowledge of local communities about importance of the leopard in the food web and lack of awareness raising programs for stakeholders –– Fear of attack by carnivores including the leopard among local communities living close to the habitats (b) Fundamental In Golestan Province, Ziarat village: –– Lack of facilities and a station for wildlife wardens –– Accessibility to the hunting weapons –– Planning for participation of local communities in conservation activities in the region –– Using capacities of existed active local NGOs for community based programs In Loveh, Minu-Dasht: –– Far distance of the Loveh sanctuary station from northern boundaries of the area and difficult accessibility to the habitat in critical and urgent situations such as entrance of illegal hunters and wildfires

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–– –– –– ––

Lack of adequate number of wildlife wardens to protect and cover the entire area Lack/insufficient number of facilities such as camera traps and GPS units Lack of systematic studies regarding the leopard, preys, and habitat Poor communication among authorities and local communities In Gonbad-e-Kavous, Ramian Township and Paghaleh region:

–– Insufficient number of skilled wildlife wardens to protect the area –– Lack of training programs for wildlife wardens –– Lack of facilities to conduct researches for assessing population of the species in the area –– Failure to improve protection status of the area –– Low income for local communities and dependence of local people on a particular sources of income –– Low income for wildlife wardens –– Lack of proper arrangements among governmental organizations about exploitations in the area In Jahan-Nama PA: –– Low income for the local communities –– The number of wildlife wardens to protect the PA is not proportionate to the size of the area –– Lack of facilities for systematic studies (e.g., population assessment and monitoring) –– Lack of an integrated research program for periodical status assessment of the species in the area –– Lack of experts and skilled individuals in the area for relative studies In Ali-Abad Township: –– Lack of facilities and personnel to protect the area In Golestan NP: –– Lack of an integrated conservation and management program addressing the species (see section 2.3.6 for implemented activities) –– A principle problem in this area is employment of non-local personnel to protect the area –– Lack of active NGOs in the area –– Lack of proper arrangements among governmental organizations about particular habitat/species management topics In Mazandaran Province: –– In general, lack of an integrated conservation program for the species –– Dependence of local communities to the livestock as a main source of income –– Dependence of livestock to the pasture in leopard habitats for grazing

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–– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––

Forest exploitations and wood harvesting Illegal trade of the specimens and relative products Development of cultivation lands and farms into the leopard areas Lack of information about illegal hunting and trafficking Construction activities in leopard areas Insufficient number of wildlife wardens to protect the habitats Increasing number of illegal hunters and illegal hunting/poaching in the region Transferring ownership of some areas in leopard habitats to private sectors which causes additional threats to the species –– Lack of law enforcement (see section 2.3.6) –– Lack of appropriate laws and regulations to control habitat disturbances –– Lack of proper arrangements among various sections of organizations related to the wildlife/habitat conservation and management (c) Disturbances In Golestan Province, Ziarat village: –– Livestock-carnivore conflicts Loveh, Minu-Dasht: –– Exploitation programs in the west of the region that causes non-safety in the habitats and migration of the leopards from the area –– Presence of the villages in the boundaries of the area and exploitations of the forests for timber –– Livestock grazing in the habitats –– Occasional attacks of herding dogs in group style on leopards or their cubs –– Private land ownerships for the areas located among Golestan NP and Loveh PA (e.g., cultivation lands and farms) which prevent the Loveh PA to efficiently work as a buffer zone for the Golestan NP –– Issuing license for hunting prey species and in particular the wild boar that is a main source of food for the leopard in the region –– Using fences and barbed wires to separate the western border of the area from the areas under Loveh Forestry Program that is affecting potential wildlife corridors in the region In Gonbad-e-Kavous, Ramian Township and Paghaleh region: –– Habitat disturbances –– Lack of food sufficiency for the leopards in the area –– Grazing of livestock inside the habitats In Jahan-Nama PA: –– Presence of animal husbandries in various parts of the area –– Livestock-carnivore conflicts –– Illegal hunting for fur

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In Ali-Abad Township: –– –– –– ––

Illegal hunting for fur trade as a supporting income for local people Illegal hunting of the leopard to prevent attacks on livestock Habitat disturbances Irregular and illegal hunting of the leopards’ prey species In Golestan NP:

–– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––

Presence of villages around the Golestan NP Presence of the road in the middle of the habitat Large number of wildlife road kills (including the leopard) per year Issuing livestock grazing permits in Ghorkhod PA which is located in the vicinity of Golestan NP. This provides the circumstances for herding dogs to enter the area, feed on prey species and also disturb safety of the habitats. Lack of facilities Local communities depend on specific occupations such as farming, animal husbandry, or working as a labor. Due to the lack of income in these occupations they also involve in illegal hunting. Local communities depend on the resources of the forest such as timber or edible mushrooms and grazing their livestock in the habitat Hunting wild boar (an important food source for the leopard in the area) for recreation In Mazandaran Province:

–– In general, excessive habitat destructions

2.3.6  Problem Trees Data presented in Sects. 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.3, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5 is summarized into the problem trees accessible subsequently. Problem trees illustrated in Figs.  2.9 and 2.10 with the causes as the roots and the effects as the branches and the main focus on two problems of high leopard mortality rate as well as habitat loss and disturbances are used as a basis during development of the Persian Leopard National Conservation and Management Action Plan (Sanei, 2016; Sanei, Teimouri, Ahamdai Fard, Asgarian, & Alikhani, 2020). The problem trees are drawn according to the data assessed during the first and second phases of the Persian Leopard Regional Workshops (2012–2016). This is worth mentioning that some of the conservation requirements specified in the current assessments are addressed in the next chapters and particularly the second section of the book. Also, several other topics have been considered by the Department of Environment of Iran to improve species conservation status in the country. Table 2.1 shows the assessed conservation requirements with subsequent implemented actions together with the responsible organization.

Fig. 2.9  Problem tree with the main focus on habitat loss and disturbances. Causes are illustrated as roots of the tree and the effects are the branches (see also Sanei, 2016)

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Fig. 2.10  Problem tree addressing considerable mortality rate of the Persian leopard as reported earlier by Sanei et al. (2012)

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Table 2.1  Progress in implementation of general topics of conservation requirements as specified in the prior need assessments (see section 2.3.1–2.3.5) Conservation No. requirement 1 An integrated conservation and management program

Responsible/executive organization Department of Environment of Iran, Asian Leopard Specialist Society

2

A compensation program covering losses of livestock-­ leopard conflicts

Department of Environment of Iran, Asian Leopard Specialist Society

3

Improving law enforcement and increasing penalties for illegal hunting of the leopard and the prey species Improving legal measures for supporting wildlife wardens Detail researches in local scale

Department of Environment of Iran

4

5

6

Assessing financial measures for conservation values of species and habitats

Department of Environment of Iran

Implemented activity Preparation of the first research based action plan for the Persian leopard in Iran (see also Sanei, Teimouri, Ahamdai Fard, Asgarian and Alikhani, 2020) Preparation of the model, making an agreement with an insurance company, preparation of the guidelines and communicating the instructions with provincial DoEs, launch the program and pay for the losses (see also Sanei et al., 2020a) The penalties for illegal hunting of all wildlife species including the leopard are increased reasonably

The bill is prepared and presented to the parliament

Asian Leopard Specialist Society Several researches essential for national action planning and further conservation programs, are implemented (e.g., Chaps. 3, 4, and 5 in the current book) Faculty of Natural Resources and See Bazghandi, Bostan, Sarhangzadeh, and Teimouri Desert Studies, University of (2020): Chap. 9 of this book Yazd, Iran in cooperation with the Department of Environment of Iran through the Asian Leopard Specialist Society

2.4  Chapter Connection Being an introductory sector of the book, this chapter provides an overview to the general status of the Persian leopard in Iran as well as previous studies conducted in this regard. The Persian leopard together with two other big cats including the Asiatic lion and the Caspian tiger has a long history in the Iranian culture, literature, and art. Therefore, a quick review is provided about significance of the big cats and

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in particular, the Persian leopard, in the Iranian poems, painting, architecture, carpet weaving, and some other historical facts. In this chapter, results from an assessment conducted during the first phase of the Persian Leopard Regional Workshops by the Asian Leopard Specialist Society are elaborated. These assessments are dedicated to the conservation requirements and threats to the species as well as two problem trees addressing (1) high mortality rates of the leopard and (2) habitat-related obstacles such as habitat loss, destruction, and degradation in a regional pattern. Several topics specified as the research and conservation needs in this manuscript are addressed in the subsequent chapters (e.g., leopard insurance program, land use and land cover changes, developing a management plan). Acknowledgments  The authors would like to thank Asian Leopard Specialist Society education team as well as facilitators in the first courses of the Persian Leopard Regional Workshops (S. N. Neshat, P. Pakzadmanesh and M. Almasi). We would like to acknowledge Conservation, Hunting and Finishing Management General Office at central DoE and Provincial DoE Offices of North Khorasan, West Azarbaijan, Boushehr and Golestan and the GEF Small Grants Program at UNDP for the supports in conducting regional conservation need assessments.

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Mojarrad Takestani, A. (2016). Study of the evolution and improvement in the Iranian art of illumination. Tehran, Iran: Yassavoli Publication (in Persian). Mowlavi, G., Marucci, G., Mobedi, I., Zahabiioon, F., Mirjalali, H., & Pozio, E. (2009). Trichinella britovi in a leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Iran. Veterinary Parasitology, 164(2), 350–352. Namroodi, S., Gholami, A., & Shariat-Bahadori, E. (2016). Toxoplasmosis may lead to road kills of Persian leopards (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Golestan National Park, Iran. Journal of Wildlife Diseases, 52(2), 436–438. Omidi, M., Kaboli, M., Karami, M., Mahini, A. S., & Kiabi, B. H. (2010). Modeling of the Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) habitat suitability in Kolah-Ghazi National Park using ENFA. Science and Environmental Technology, 12, 137–148. Pocock, R. I. (1930). The panthers and ounces of Asia. Journal of Bombay Natural History Society, 1, 63–82, 307–336. Rozhnov, V. V., Lukarevsky, V. S., & Sorokin, P. A. (2011). Using molecular genetic characteristics under reintroduction of the leopard (Panthera pardus L., 1758) in the Caucasus. Doklady Akademii Nauk, 437(2), 280–285. Sanei, A. (2004). Assessment of leopard status in Iran (BSc thesis). Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Sanei, A. (2007). Assessment of leopard (Panthera pardus) status in Iran (vol. 1, p. 298). Tehran, Iran: Sepehr Publication Center. Sanei, A. (2016). Persian leopard national conservation and management action plan in Iran. Tehran, Iran: Department of Environment of Iran (in Persian). Sanei, A. (2020). Novel regional classification of natural and socioeconomic characteristics for the Persian leopard research and conservation programs. In A. Sanei (Ed.), Research and management practices for conservation of the Persian leopard in Iran. New York, NY: Springer. Sanei, A., Masoud, M.  R., & Mohamadi, H. (2020). An overview to the Persian leopard transboundary habitats in the Iranian sector of the Caucasus Ecoregion. In A. Sanei (Ed.), Research and management practices for conservation of the Persian leopard in Iran. New York, NY: Springer. Sanei, A., Mousavi, M., Kiabi, B. H., Masoud, M. R., Gord Mardi, E., Mohamadi, H., … Raeesi, T. (2016). Status assessment of the Persian leopard in Iran. Cat News Special Issue, 10, 43–50. Sanei, A., Mousavi, M., Mousivand, M., & Zakaria, M. (2012). Assessment of the Persian leopard mortality rate in Iran. In Proceedings from UMT 11th International Annual Symposium on Sustainability Science and Management (pp.  1458–1462), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia. Sanei, A., Rabie, K., Teimouri, M., Shamsayee, M., Fahraji, N., Raeesi, T., … Hermidas, Sh. (2015). A report to the least mortality rate of the Persian Leopard in Iran – Second Report. Asian Leopard Specialist Society, Tehran, Iran. Sanei, A., Teimouri, A., Ahamdai Fard, G., Asgarian, H.  R., & Alikhani, M. (2020). An introduction to the Persian leopard national conservation and management action plan in Iran. In A. Sanei (Ed.), Research and management practices for conservation of the Persian leopard in Iran. New York, NY: Springer. Sanei, A., Teimouri, A., Saeida, Sh., Asadi, R., Taheri, S., & Asgarian, H. R. (2020a). The innovative Persian leopard insurance program. In A. Sanei (Ed.), Research and management practices for conservation of the Persian leopard in Iran. New York, NY: Springer. Sanei, A., & Zakaria, M. (2008). Distribution of Panthera pardus in Iran in relation to its habitat and climate type. In Proceedings from 3rd Regional Symposium on Environment and Natural Resources (p. 54). Selangor, Malaysia: Universiti Kebangsan Malaysia. Sanei, A., & Zakaria, M. (2011a). Distribution pattern of the Persian leopard in Iran. Asia Life Sciences Supplement, 7, 7–18. Sanei, A., & Zakaria, M. (2011b). Survival of the Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Iran: Primary threats and human-leopard conflicts. Asia Life Sciences Supplement, 7, 31–39. Sanei, A., Zakaria, M., Daraei, L., Besmeli, M. R., Esfandiari, F., & Veisi, H. (2020b). Countrywide distribution of the Persian leopard potential habitats in a regional basis in Iran. In A.  Sanei

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(Ed.), Research and management practices for conservation of the Persian leopard in Iran. New York, NY: Springer. Sanei, A., Zakaria, M., & Hermidas, S. (2011). Prey composition in the Persian leopard distribution range in Iran. Asia Life Sciences Supplement, 7, 19–30. Sanei, A., Zakaria, M., Mohamadi, H., Masoud, Mr., Jafari, B., Delshab, H., … Poursalem, S. (2020c). Ground validation of the Persian leopard MaxEnt potential distribution models: An evaluation to three threshold rules. In A. Sanei (Ed.), Research and management practices for conservation of the Persian leopard in Iran. New York, NY: Springer. Semenov, U. (2002). Tracking the Anatolian leopard in the western Caucasus. Russian Conservation News, 30, 30–31. Sherbafi, E. (2010). Analysis of leopard diet in the habitats of Golestan NP (Master’s thesis). Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Stein, A. B., Athreya, V., Gerngross, P., Balme, G., Henschel, P., Karanth, U., … Ghoddousi, A. (2016). Panthera pardus: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2016:.e..T15954A50659089. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2016-1.RLTS.T15954A50659089.en Sunquist, M., & Sunquist, F. (2002). Wild cats of the world (p. 452). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Taghdisi, M., Mohammadi, A., Nourani, E., Shokri, S., Rezaei, A., & Kaboli, M. (2013). Diet and habitat use of the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in northeastern Iran. Turkish Journal of Zoology, 37, 554–561. Ullrich, B., & Riffel, M. (1993). New evidence for the occurrence of the Anatolian leopard, Panthera pardus tulliana (Valenciennes, 1856), in western Turkey. Mammalia, 57, 5. Uphyrkina, O., Johnson, W.  E., Quigley, H., Miquelle, D., Marker, L., Bush, M., & O’Brien, S. J. (2001). Phylogenetics, genome diversity and origin of modern leopard, Panthera pardus. Molecular Ecology, 10(11), 2617–2633. Vereschangin, N. K. (1959). Ovtsebyk Na Wevere Sibiri. Priroda, 48, 105–106. WWF. (2016). Leopards with amputated legs are found in the Caucasus. Retrieved from http:// wwf.panda.org/who_we_are/wwf_offices/azerbaijan/news Youssefi, M., Sh, H., Hoseini, S., Zaheri, B., & Tabari, M. A. (2010). First report of Ancylostoma tubaeforme in Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor). Iranian Journal of Parasitology, 5(1), 61–63. Zakaria, M., & Sanei, A. (2011). Conservation and management prospects of the Persian and Malayan leopards. Asia Life Sciences Supplement, 7, 1–5. Zulfiqar, A. (2001). Leopard in Pakistan’s north west frontier province. Cat News, 35, 9–10.

Chapter 3

Novel Regional Classification of Natural and Socioeconomic Characteristics for the Persian Leopard Research and Conservation Programs Arezoo Sanei

3.1  Introduction Previous studies specify that majority of the leopard areas are in the weather range of about 0–20  days/year of ice cover, temperature of 13–18  °C, and more than 200 mm of precipitation per year (Sanei & Zakaria, 2008). Leopard areas in Iran are mostly confined to the mountainous regions (Joslin, 1990; Sanei, 2007; Sanei & Zakaria, 2011c) while high altitude and slope of about 20–70% have been also documented as significant factors in determining leopard habitat suitability (Omidi, Kaboli, Karami, Mahini, & Kiabi, 2010; Mobargha, 2006). Sanei et  al. (2016) revealed that protection status of the areas (i.e. PA, NP, WR, non-protected), number of the years under protection, and size of the PAs (protected areas) are significant factors affecting number of wild goats, which in the majority of habitats is a principle determinant for leopard occurrence (Omidi et  al., 2010; Sanei, Zakaria, Yusof, & Roslan, 2011; Taghdisi et al., 2013). Furthermore, the main population of the Persian leopard is known to inhabit in Iran while trans-boundary movements could support presence and persistence of this subspecies in neighbouring countries in North, East, and West of Iran (Khorozyan & Abramov, 2007; Kiabi, Dareshouri, Ghaemi, & Jahanshahi, 2002; Sanei et  al., 2016; Stein et  al., 2016). The leopard has been recorded to be present in all provinces of Iran excluding Hamedan with documented non-detection of more than three decades (Sanei, 2007; Sanei & Zakaria, 2011c). However, Hamedan Province has trans-boundary leopard habitats continuing from the neighbouring provinces as well as available food resources (Sanei et al., 2016). The idea behind classification of provinces into environmentally significant different regions is about the fact that there is a considerable variation in numerous A. Sanei (*) Asian Leopard Specialist Society, Tehran, Iran Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 A. Sanei (ed.), Research and Management Practices for Conservation of the Persian Leopard in Iran, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28003-1_3

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relative factors between provinces such as ecosystem type, climate, fauna and flora as well as human factors such as human poverty index and population density. As an example, while Northern Iran located by the Caspian Sea is covered by dense forests and receives average annual rainfall of 1200–1300 mm, south westernmost of Iran with the maximum temperature reaching to 52  °C is covered with plains (Bobek, 2005; Faraj Zadeh, 2005). Also, in terms of human factors, while Tehran, Gilan, and Mazandaran Provinces have population relative density up to 713 km2, South Khorasan and Sistan and Balouchestan Provinces have population relative density of 7 and 13 km2 (Estelaji & Shariat Panahi, 2013).

3.2  C  lassification of Regions According to the Natural and Socioeconomic Factors Relevant literatures were reviewed to select the human and natural variables that have confirmed impact to the species. Accordingly, a total of five natural and four human variables were selected on the basis of their impact on species presence, movement, and persistence (e.g. Forrest et  al., 2012; Mobargha, 2006; Sanei & Zakaria, 2011a, 2011b, 2011c, 2011d; Verdade, Lyra-Jorge, & Piña, 2014). The natural variables include climate, topography, dry condition, vegetation, and elevation, and the human variables include protected areas (i.e. number and area of PAs and protection level), human population, and land use. Human poverty index was also added to the set of chosen variables because of its indirect effects on species presence through poaching of leopards and their prey particularly in rural and human dominated areas (Ingram, 2012; Tilson & Nyhus, 2010). Relative information from national official statistics and census were used to categorize each province in a class of high (three marks), medium (2), or low suitability (1) in relation to each variable. Table 3.1 illustrates the criteria of each category and the references for classifications of the variables into three groups of suitability. For instance, elevation of higher than 600 m above sea level is considered as the most suitable elevation ranking as proposed by previous literature, also according to the definition of topographical features (e.g. mountains and hills) and variability of altitude range in various provinces (Mobargha, 2006; Omidi et al., 2010; Sanei & Zakaria, 2011c; Sanei et al., 2016; Sanei, Gordmardi, Jafari, Absalan, & Zakaria, 2013; Whittow, 1984). Thus, the highest score of 3 was assigned to this category. Yet, according to the same literature, elevation of less than 200 m above sea level was given the lowest suitability score of 1. Subsequently, scores related to all variables in a province were summed up and an overall assigned value to each province was used for extracting inherent clusters in the dataset without prior tagging of the cases. Therefore, the hierarchical clustering method of within-groups average linkage was used to group each two clusters which then, produced a cluster with the smallest average distance between the cases (see also Mooi & Sarstedt, 2011).

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Table 3.1  Variable references for further classifications into three groups of suitability Dep. var. Cl.

Topo.

Suitability score ranking Map of climate zones  1. Hot and dry, very hot and dry, very hot and humid  2. Very cold, cold  3. Moderate and rainy, semi moderate and rainy, semi-arid Map of topography  1. Desert, plain and flat areas  2. Hilly  3. Mountainous landscapes, forest, rocky mountains

Elev.

Map of elevation  1. Lower than 200 m above sea level  2. 200–600 m above sea level  3. Higher than 600 m above sea level

Dr.

Percentage of dry condition which is the difference between the measured rainfall in—20th Sept 2011— 19th Feb 2012  1. Very intensive, intensive, moderate precipitation  2. Low dry condition, low precipitation  3. Very intensive, intensive, moderate dry condition Vegetation map  1. Irrigated farming and orchards, dry farming, mangrove forests  2. Rangelands with either more than 50% or 25–50% or 5–25% canopy cover  3. Forest with either more than 50% or 25–50% or 5–25% canopy cover, shrub-lands with more than 10% canopy cover List of protected areas, protection level and area until 2012  1. Protected area, no hunting area  2. Wildlife reserve  3. National park Population census data and map of population density  1. 25–100 person/km2  2. 5–25 person/km2  3. 0–5 person/km2 On the basis of per capita income above 294.30 USD/ month for livelihood in the city and 180.44 USD in the villages Land use map  1. Wasteland  2. Agriculture  3. Grazing

Veg.

PA/ non-PA

HP

HPI

LU

References Kasmaei (1994), Sanei and Zakaria (2011c), Sanei et al. (2013)

Iran Topography Map (2008), Mobargha (2006), Omidi et al. (2010), Sanei and Zakaria (2011c), Sanei et al. (2013, 2016) Mobargha (2006), Omidi et al. (2010), Sanei and Zakaria (2011c), Sanei et al. (2013, 2016), Whittow (1984) Esfahan Center for Research of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources (2012), Sanei and Zakaria (2011c)

Balme, Hunter, and Slotow (2007), Gavashelishvili and Lukarevskiy (2008), Hayward et al. (2006), Iran Land Cover Map (2008)

Department of Environment of Iran (2012), Sanei et al. (2016)

Statistical Centre of Iran (2012)

National Competition Council (2011) Iran Land Use Map (2008)

Cl. climate, Dr. dry condition, Dep. Var. dependent variable, Elev. elevation, HPI human poverty index, PA protected area, HP human population, LU land use, Topo. topography, Veg. vegetation

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The provinces with the same strata number are determined to have more similarities comparing to those in other clusters. Figure 3.1 shows more details regarding the distances between the clusters and cases. Thus, this classification provided an insight to the similarities and dissimilarities of the provinces on the basis of previously assigned values to the variables. As such, those ranked in a same cluster have the most similarities while those located in the clusters further than each other have less similarity. For instance, provinces of North Khorasan, South Khorasan, and Razavi Khorasan, Semnan and Tehran are classified in a same cluster while they are sharing common borders (Table 3.2). However, Kordestan Province has also similarities to these provinces, but it is not neighbour to the previous ones. Since this classification is being done for the purpose of potential distribution modelling as well as other relative conservation and management implications, thus neighbouring provinces with similar conditions need to be assigned to the same groups. Therefore, while North Khorasan, South Khorasan, and Razavi Khorasan, Semnan and Tehran Provinces can be assigned to a same group, Kordestan Province should be assigned to a set of neighbouring provinces with the most similarities. In this way, Kordestan can be grouped with Ghazvin and Zanjan (also classified in group 1) as well as Markazi and Ardebil in the nearest clusters (see Fig. 3.1). A total of five groups each consisted of the most similar neighbouring provinces were classified that eventually cover the entire leopard historical and current range. Subsequently, one way ANOVA was used to test significant dissimilarities of five groups of neighbouring closely ranked provinces (P = 0.03). Here, dependent variables are the overall suitability scores assigned to each region after summing up all the provincial scores in a proposed region. Therefore, 31 provinces of Iran are classified into five main regions of northeast (region 1), southeast and central Iran (region 2), southwest (region 3), northwest (region 4), and North (region 5) of Iran (Fig. 3.2). In this figure, the hierarchical clustering of provinces that is shown in Fig. 3.1 and Table 3.2 is used to assign the most similar neighbouring provinces to the same regions. In fact Fig. 3.1 and Table 3.2 show the raw outcomes of the hierarchical clustering that are not demonstrating the final classification of the provinces. This is due to the fact that neighbouring similarities are the main concern for extracting the regions across the leopard range in the country. Consequently, differences among the provinces classified in each region comparing to those assigned to other regions with respect to the selected natural and human variables of dry condition, climate, elevation, topography, vegetation, protected areas, poverty index, human population, and land use are significant (P = 0.03). Numbering of provinces in each region according to Fig. 3.2 includes: Region 1: (1) North Khorasan, (2) Razavi Khorasan, (3) South Khorasan, (4) Semnan, (5) Tehran, (6) Ghom, (7) Alborz; Region 2: (27) Esfahan, (28) Yazd, (29) Kerman, (30) Sistan and Balouchestan, (31) Hormozgan; Region 3: (20) Ilam, (21) Lorestan, (22) Khuzestan, (23) Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari, (24) Kohgiluyeh and

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Fig. 3.1  Classification of provinces based on the average linkage (within-groups) method. Suitability scores for five natural and four human variables assigned to each province are used for extracting clusters in the dataset using hierarchical clustering method. West Azar. West Azarbaijan, East Azar. East Azarbaijan, Koh. & Boyer. Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Chahar. & Bakht. Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari, Sist. & Bal. Sistan and Balouchestan

Boyer Ahmad, (25) Boushehr, (26) Fars; Region 4: (11) Markazi, (12) Ghazvin, (13) Zanjan, (14) Ardebil, (15) East Azarbaijan, (16) West Azarbaijan, (17) Kordestan, (18) Hamedan, (19) Kermanshah; Region 5: (8) Golestan, (9) Gilan, (10) Mazandaran

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Table 3.2  Cluster membership for the provinces of Iran according to the hierarchical clustering method No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Province North Khorasan South Khorasan Razavi Khorasan Semnan Tehran Golestan Ghazvin Zanjan Kordestan Kermanshah

Cl 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

No. 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Province Mazandaran Alborz Ardebil Koh. & Boyer. Markazi Esfahan Chahar. & Bakht Boushehr Ghom Sist. & Bal.

Cl 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3

No. 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Province Hormozgan Ilam Khuzestan Kerman Hamedan Lorestan Yazd Fars East. Azar. West. Azar. Gilan

Cl 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5

Cl refers to the cluster number for each province

Fig. 3.2  Provinces included in each region (1–5). Numbering of the provinces is indicated subsequently in the text. Political borders of the provinces and thus the boundary of the regions are according to the study span

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3.3  Introduction to the Study Regions A total of five main environmentally significant dissimilar regions each including groups of neighbouring provinces were classified in the earlier section (see Sect. 3.2). To provide a better understanding to the research findings elaborated in the next chapters, general characteristics of each region is introduced in this section. Figure  3.3 shows the location of Iran and neighbouring countries with trans-­ boundary habitats in the southwest Asia. Figure 3.4 shows the topography map of the country.

3.3.1  Region 1 This region includes provinces of North Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, South Khorasan, Semnan, Tehran, Alborz and Ghom.

Fig. 3.3  Location of Iran in southwest Asia and the neighbouring countries (Source: Google, map data, 2016)

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Fig. 3.4  Map of topography of Iran (Source: Raziei & Pereira, 2013)

3.3.1.1  Location and Topography Figures 3.5 and 3.6 show the elevation structure and map of the land use/land cover in region 1, respectively. In general, this region is mostly covered by the elevated mountainous chains of Alborz located in the northernmost part of the country and extends along the Alborz chains westwards while influenced by the deserts located in the central Iran extending from region 2 to the Semnan and South Khorasan Provinces (see also Fig.  3.4;  National Geographical Organization of Iran, 2011). Binalud mountain range running from Razavi Khorasan westwards to the southeast of the Caspian Sea and the Aladagh Mnts located in North Khorasan Province are among other mountainous areas located in this region (The Gazetteer of Mountains in the I. R. of Iran, 2006). Kopet Dag mountains in the northernmost part of the region extend to the neighbouring country of Turkmenistan. Other trans-boundary habitats with previous leopard records (see also Kiabi et  al., 2002; Sanei, 2007; Sanei et al., 2016) are located in the North (bordering with Turkmenistan) and the east (extending to Afghanistan). In general, North, Razavi, and South Khorasan Provinces which were once contained within the great Khorasan Province covering a total area of 335,313 km2 (the years earlier than 2004) can be divided into two parts of the North and the south in terms of landscapes and natural conditions. The north side is generally mountainous (Fig. 3.5), while it is covered with rich and fertile plains in the valleys and the low lands. Due to the heavy rain falls, sufficient conditions are provided for livestock and agricultural activities. Southern part is consisting of broad plains with low hills.

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Fig. 3.5  Map of elevation and location of cities in region 1. Altitude is ranging from 241 to 3932 m ASL in this region. Refer to Sect. 3.2 for the numbers of provinces (adapted from GIS-­ based map of elevation, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

Receiving small amount of rain per year, this area contains poor vegetation cover. Besides, the soil is not good enough for agriculture activities (see also Bannayan et al., 2009; Torabi & Halabian, 2015). Located adjacent to Tehran, the capital city of Iran, habitats in the neighbouring provinces, e.g. Ghom and Alborz Provinces, are affected by intensive developments, destructions, and consequences of the human population growth (Eskandari Dameneh, Borjib, Hhosravi, & Salajegheh, 2016; Jokar Arsanjani, 2011). Mountainous areas of above 1500 m ASL located in the south, southwest, and the

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Fig. 3.6  Map of land use/land cover in region 1. Numbering of provinces is according to Sect. 3.2 (adapted from GIS-based maps of land use and land cover, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

west of Ghom Province are among the mountains of central Iran. However, plains around two salt lakes, namely Daryacheh-e-Namak (salt lake) and Hoz-e-Soltan (Sultan Pond), extend to the plains located in the central and northeast of the province. Southern amplitudes of the Alborz mountains reach to the Semnan Province where the height gradually decreases from North to South, and leading to the Kavir-­ e-­Namak (i.e. Salt Desert).

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3.3.1.2  Climate Generally the climate in the eastern part of this region, i.e. North, Razavi, and South Khorasan Provinces, can be divided into four classes (see also Silakhori & Arami, 2014). This is including (1) mountainous cold (e.g. in Ala Dagh and Binalud Heights), (2) mountainous temperate (e.g. in cities of Bojnourd, Quchan, Shirvan, and Southern parts of Binalud Mnts, Kopet Dag Heights, Hezar Masjed Mnts and a part of Mashhad City), (3) mild semi-desert (foothills climate) as well as (4) hot and dry desert climate types. Mild semi-desert is mostly seen in the foothills and its most important feature is changing of temperature compare to the surrounding areas (e.g. Ghayenat). Hot and dry desert climate is mostly observed in the southern parts of the region. The minimum temperature in this area (i.e. North, Razavi, and South Khorasan Provinces) is −28 °C, while the maximum temperature is about 45.5 °C in a city called Sabzevar with average annual rainfall of 218.55 mm (Iran Meteorological Organization, 2017; Samadi, Ehteramian, & Sari Sarraf, 2011). In the most western parts of region 1, where provinces of Terhan and Alborz located by southern side of the Alborz mountain chains, three different climatic features are recognized (see also Fanni, Hosayni, Afsharmanesh, Nezammahalleh, & Rastegar, 2013): (1) Climate in the northern heights: the climate of the amplitudes of the southern central Alborz heights, at high altitude above 3000 m is humid or semi-humid and cold, while the winters are very cold and long, e.g. including mountains of Damavand and Tochal (see also Mousaei Sanjerehei, 2014). (2) Climate in the height of 2000 –3000 meters ASL is semi-humid and cold with relatively long winters (including mountains of Ab-Ali, Firuzkooh, Damavand, Galanduk, Amir Kabir Dam, as well as Taleghan Valley). The annual temperature in this area is 10–15 °C (Iran Meteorological Organization, 2017). (3) Areas with semi-arid and arid climates, short winters and hot summers, located in the ranges with elevation of lower than 200 m ASL. Thus, Tehran weather in mountainous regions is a temperate climate type and semi-desert climate is observed in plains. While Alborz mountains located in northern Tehran modify the weather, desert of Kavir located at the south of Tehran causes heat and dry weather in the region (see also Hyde, 2008). Similarly, areas around the Hoze Soltan, a salt lake in Ghom Province, receive even less than 100 mm rainfall annually while the situation is slightly better at Ghom city with 145 mm/year of rainfall and the maximum daily temperature of 34.5 °C in June and minimum daily temperature of 3.6 °C in December. In general, climate in Ghom Province is arid with annual rainfall of about 150 mm (see also Abai et al., 2016; Abtahi and Safe, 2012; Naseri, 2008). Whereas the Kavir Desert is located in the southern part of region 1, i.e. in Semnan Province, the rate of rainfall is more in the mountainous places of the northern parts, particularly in spring, and sometimes leading to floods (see also Comprehensive Study of Semnan Environment, 1993; Soltani et al., 2016).

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3.3.2  Region 2 This region covers south-easternmost and central Iran including provinces of Esfahan, Kerman, Sistan and Balouchestan, Yazd, and Hormozgan. 3.3.2.1  Location and Topography West of the region 2 is covered by eastern hillsides of the Zagros mountainous chains (running from northwest to the south of the country). Four provinces of Esfahan, Kerman, Sistan and Balouchestan, and Yazd included in this region are the vastest provinces of Iran with about 105,263 km2, 180,726 km2, 187,502 km2, and 72,156 km2, relatively (National Geographical Organization of Iran, 2011). While height of the Zagros chains gradually decreases from west to east (Fig. 3.7), highlands in the west of Kerman province are attached to the central mountains of Iran. These elevated mountainous areas started from volcanic mountains of Azarbaijan and extends to Sistan and Balouchestan, while the extension is cut off several times by the local lowlands and the desert areas. Bashagerd Mountains, located in the extension of Zagros Mountains and in the southern of Kahnouj Township in Kerman Province, separate this area from Hormozgan Province in southern boundaries of region 2 (The Gazetteer of Mountains in the I. R. of Iran, 2006). The easternmost part of the region 2 is consisted of Sistan and Balouchestan Province with trans-boundary habitats which extends to two countries of Pakistan and Afghanistan (Fig. 3.3). While several mountainous areas and ranges, e.g. Khajeh Mnts, Taftan Mnts, Bazman Mnts, Birk Mnts, and Palang Kuh (i.e. Leopard Mountain), together with hills and mounds are distributed widely in the eastern parts of the region 2, i.e. across the Sistan and Balouchestan Province, extensive plains, e.g. Dasht-e Loot (Loot Desert), Hamoon and Jazmurian, are found in the western parts of the province (Comprehensive study of Sistan and Balouchestan Environment, 1993). Yet, forests in this province include wild olive forests of Saravan, forests of Nikshahr (located in the Pozak Heights of this township), a forest region called Shileh (located in the Zabol Township), as well as mangrove forests by the shorelines of the Oman Sea (Fig. 3.8; Operation Report of the Natural Environment Office of the Zahedan DoE, 2000). While almost 13.7% of the area in central Iran plateau, in Yazd Province, is covered by deserts, altitudes ranging from about 850  m ASL in Rig Zarin Desert to 4055  m ASL in Shir Kuh (i.e. the lion Mountain) indicate variety of landscapes, e.g. mountains, hills, plains, salt deserts, and sand hills (National Geographical Organization of Iran, 2011). Mountains of Hormozgan Province are the southern boundary of Zagros chains with Geno and Fareghan MTS as the highest peaks in this province. South and southeast of region 2 in Sistan and Balouchestan and Hormozgan Provinces reaches the shorelines of Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf (Comprehensive study of Hormozgan Environment, 1993).

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Fig. 3.7  Elevation in region 2 varying from −7 to 4032 m above sea level. See Sect. 3.2 for the name of the provinces (adapted from GIS-based map of elevation, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

3.3.2.2  Climate Central plateau of Iran consisting a main part of region 2 receives only small amount of rain annually and it is affected by desert and hot-dry climates. However, west part of the region which is affected by Zagros chains has cold climate while southern

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Fig. 3.8  Land use, land cover, and location of the cities in region 2. Refer to Sect. 3.2 for the name of the provinces (adapted from GIS-based maps of land use and land cover, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

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parts, in Kerman, Sistan and Balouchestan and Hormozgan Provinces are affected by warm-humid climate. Still there are much variations in weather conditions in  local scale: e.g. mild semi-desert with 30–100  mm/year rain in foothills and surrounding areas of Gavkhoni Wetland, dry with 100–150 mm/year rain in central areas of the province, semi-arid climate with average annual rain of 150–300 mm/year in townships of Khansar and Golpayegan, temperate climates with 300–450 mm/year rain in parts of Semirom Township and semi-humid climate with more rainfall (i.e. 450–1000 mm of rain per year) in Bazoft, Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Province (Comprehensive Study of Esfahan Environment, 1993). While, average maximum and minimum temperatures in Esfahan Province is 16.2–28.2 °C and 6.3–1.1 °C, relatively (Nasri & Modarres, 2009), the climate in more eastern parts such as Rig Zarin desert in Yazd Province is semi-desert with less than average annual rain of 30 mm/year (Iran Meteorological Organization, 2017). In Kerman Province, precipitation is very low starting from November which continues to the following June. The average maximum and minimum temperatures are in July and February, with dry and temperate climate in North, northwest, and central areas of the province (see also Karimi-­ Googhari, 2011). Yet, high altitudes and small plateaus between them in eastern part of the region, i.e. in Sistan and Balouchestan Province, are affected by semi-desert climate with cold winters (National Geographical Organization of Iran, 2011). Absolute maximum temperature in Zabol, Saravan, Iranshahr, and Zahedan is more than 40 °C, while it may reach to 51 °C in Iranshahr Township. The coldest months of the year in Zahedan and Iranshahr townships are December and January. But the coldest months in Saravan Township is December, while it is January in Zabol (Iran Meteorological Organization, 2017). The amount of precipitation in the area is 120 mm/year while areas in Zabol Township have suffered the most damage from long term dry condition (Comprehensive Study of Sistan and Balouchestan Environment, 1993). Climate variations in Yazd Province includes cold and dry weather in mountainous regions, dry and desert climates in semi-mountainous areas, warm and dry weather with 250 mm/year rainfall in desert or plain areas, arid steppe areas with 100 mm/year rainfall, and arid desert areas with 50 mm/year of rain. Absolute maximum temperature in Yazd Province is 43 °C in July, while the absolute minimum temperature is −7.2  °C in January (see also Taghizadeh-­ Mehjardi, Mahmoodi, & Heidari, 2009).

3.3.3  Region 3 This region includes provinces of Kermanshah, Lorestan, Chahar  Mahal and Bakhtiari, Ilam, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Boushehr, and Khuzestan.

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3.3.3.1  Location and Topography This region is mainly conformed to the Zagros mountainous chains (running from northwest to the south of Iran; Fig. 3.9). While 12 million ha of landscapes in Iran is covered with forests, five million ha of that is located in the Zagros Mnts (Fig. 3.10; Shabanian, Soheili, & Haidari, 2013) where Quercus infectoria, Q. libani, and Q. persica are found in the northern side (which extend to region 4 in Kordestan Province) and Q. persica is in the southern parts (Haidari & Rezaei, 2013; Khosravi, Namiranian, Ghazanfari, & Shirvani, 2012). Yet, dependence of local communities to these forests as a source of fodder for livestock, firewood, and other wood consumptions as well as traditional forestry has a long history in this area (Ghazanfari, Namiranian, Sobhani, & Mohajer, 2004; Valipour, Namiraninan, Etemad, & Ghazanfari, 2009). Mountains, accompanied with deep valleys, are extended from the northwest to the south of Lorestan Province, and occasionally encompass some alluvial valleys and small plains nearby (see also Hasanpori, Tavili, & Javadi, 2013). Kermanshah and Ilam Provinces at the west of Zagros mountainous chains contain trans-­boundary habitats across their common borders with the neighbouring country of Iraq. While vast mountainous areas in the southern side of the Zagros mountainous chains spread over Fars Province, mountainous lands lose the heights gradually (Fig. 3.9). As a result, variation in fauna and flora is obvious accordingly (e.g. Dolatkhahi, Yousofi, Baghernejad, & Dolatkhahi, 2010; Mirzaei & Yazdani, 1992; Soltanzadeh, Saghaei, & Ostovan, 2015). Even though the south-westernmost part of Iran, i.e. in Khuzestan Province, is surrounded by the Zagros Mnts in the northern and eastern sides, height decreases towards the southwest, so the plains starts from south of Dezful, Masjed Soleiman, Ramhormoz, and Behbahan townships and continues to the Persian Gulf seashore and the Arvand Rood, i.e. Arvand River (Dinarvand & Sharifi, 2009). 3.3.3.2  Climate In general, similar to the topography, climate is also much variable in this region from cold to hot-dry and then, hot-humid. Reaching to the Persian Gulf in the south, the coastal areas have hot and humid climate in Boushehr Province. However, mountainous areas have hot and dry weather and the climate in the winter is generally temperate (Asghari & Vafaei, 2015; Iran Meteorological Organization, 2017). Northwards, i.e. south and southeast of Fars Province, the climate during winter is moderate but very hot in the summer. Then, in northern parts of the province where southern heights of the Zagros mountainous chains are located, the climate changes to cold winter with snow and temperate in summer. Yet, among these two regions in the central areas of the province, rainy mild winter with hot summers is observed (see also Soufi, 2004). South-westernmost of the region 3 with average annual temperature of 31.2 °C and the maximum temperature reaching to 52 °C, in Khuzestan Province, contains semi-desert and semi-arid climates (Gandomkar & Azhdary

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Fig. 3.9  Elevation in region 3 varies between −12 and 4044 m above sea level. See Sect. 3.2 for the name of the provinces (adapted from GIS-based map of elevation, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

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Fig. 3.10  Map of land use and land cover and places of cities in region 3. Refer to Sect. 3.2 for the numbering of the provinces (adapted from GIS-based maps of land use and land cover, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

Mamooreh, 2015). Along Zagros mountainous chain, still climate is much variable. As such, in Lorestan Province, close to region 4, there is a severe cold snowy and stormy winter in northern parts while the weather in Southern parts is rainy and pleasant (see also Salehvnd, Gandomkar, Fatahi, & Azizi, 2016). In Chahar Mahal

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and Bakhtiari, the average annual precipitation is 1600 mm in Zard Kuh while the snow height reaches to 12  meters (Comprehensive Study of Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Environment, 1993). In Ilam Province, absolute maximum temperature is 52 °C while the absolute minimum is −27/5 °C. Elevated areas and high mountains of Kabir Kuh (i.e. Great Mountain) have a cold temperature and the minimum temperature reaches to −14 °C (Comprehensive Study of Ilam Environment, 1993). Yet, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province with 16,264 km2 area has three different climatic zones including (1) tropical in south and west of the province, (2) moderately cold in high altitude ranges, and (3) extreme cold in the peaks of the mountains. The minimum temperature reaches −5 °C in February, while the maximum temperature is 35.6 °C in August (Comprehensive Study of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Environment, 1993).

3.3.4  Region 4 This region includes provinces of Ardebil, East Azerbaijan, Ghazvin, Hamedan, Kermanshah, Kordestan, Markazi, West Azerbaijan, and Zanjan. Caucasus ecoregion in Iran is mainly located in this region. 3.3.4.1  Location and Topography Running along the south of the Caspian Sea, Talesh Mnts continue across southeast of the Azerbaijan Republic to the Ardebil Province in north westernmost of region 4 and to the Gilan Province located in region 5 (i.e. northern Iran). Also, Moghan plateau, in southwest of the Caspian Sea and South of the lesser Caucasus Mnts is divided by Aras River to two parts which are located in the Ardebil Province in one side and the Azerbaijan Republic in the other side. Yet, the lesser Caucasus Mnts which extended across Georgia, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan also continue into the northwest of Iran (Amir-Ahmadian, 2002; National Geographical Organization of Iran, 2011). Sabalan, Ghareh Dagh, Arasbaran, and Ghafelan Kouh are among the well-known heights of this area. In general, mountainous habitats (Fig.  3.11) in western parts of the region 4 eventually connect the Hyrcanian forests in North to the trans-boundary habitats where they extend to the neighbouring countries of Azerbaijan and Armenia Republics (Figs. 3.3 and 3.12). While significant portion of the Hamedan Province with a total area of 19,368 km2 is covered by mountains (e.g. Alvand Mountain with height of 3574  m above sea level) and two protected areas of Lashgardar and Khangarmz are also located in the mountains of this province, non-detection of the leopard for more than 30 years in this area could be a sign of local extinction (Sanei, 2007). Zagros mountainous ranges which are extended from region 4 to south of Iran have also emerged as a series of parallel mountains within the Kermanshah Province, while the mountainous plains are formed in the intermediates. Yet, forests

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Fig. 3.11  Map of elevation in region 4. Altitude is ranging from 17 to 4735 m above sea level in this region. See Sect. 3.2 for the numbering of provinces (adapted from GIS-based map of elevation, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

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Fig. 3.12  Land use/land cover and location of cities in northwest of Iran in region 4. Refer to Sect. 3.2 for the numbering of provinces (adapted from GIS-based maps of land use and land cover, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

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located in the Western parts of the Kordestan Province are attached to the forests of Kermanshah Province, as well as West Azarbaijan Province, while the forests also extend to the neighbouring country of Iraq (Fig. 3.12; see also Bobek, 2005). 3.3.4.2  Climate Containing high altitude mountains with cold weather, northwest of Iran after the region by the Caspian Sea (region 5) has the most average number of days (i.e. 78 days) with precipitation (Faraj Zadeh, 2005). As such, the average annual rainfall in West Azarbaijan Province is 300–400  mm/year (National Geographical Organization of Iran, 2000). However, the plains and foothills in Ardebil, Meshkin-­ Shahr, and Khalkhal townships receive the maximum rainfall of 350 mm/year with the minimum temperature reaching to −30  °C.  Also, the highest temperature of mountainous areas of Sabalan, as well as Baghru, with the cold mountainous climate is 20 °C (Molavi-Arabshahi, Arpe, & Leroy, 2015; Shirvani, 2017). In general, temperature variation could be much unexpected in this region. As an illustration, temperature variation in Hezarkanian habitat in Kordestan Province between the coldest temperatures and the hottest months of the year may reaches to 79 °C (The Gazetteer of Mountains in the I. R. of Iran, 2006). In Zanjan Province, spring and autumn seasons are short while winter starts with continuous snow falls in early December which usually continues until late April (see also Asakereh & Razmi, 2012; Farajzadeh, 2003; Farajzadeh & Matzarakis, 2009). Climate of the Kermanshah Province which is affected by the Zagros mountainous ranges varies from temperate winters and hot dry summers to the cold winters and summers, semi-arid climate, and cold steppe, as well as hot semi-arid steppe climate (Karam, Ranjbar, Eftekhari, & Yaghoob, 2014; Mirmousavi, Gharoosi, & Khaefi, 2014). Yet, the weather of the north mountainous region of Ghazvin Province is cold, with snowy winters, while the summers are temperate. However, in the plains of the province cold winters along with hot and dry summers are perceived (Shahriar, Montazeri, Momeni, & Freidooni, 2015).

3.3.5  Region 5 Three provinces of Golestan, Mazandaran, and Gilan generally covered by the Hyrcanian forests in northern Iran and along the Caspian Sea are included in region 5.

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3.3.5.1  Location and Topography In general, in this region Alborz Mnts surrounded the coastline and plains around the Caspian Sea and perform as a high barrier in a long distance (Fig. 3.13). The heights of the eastern half of the Alborz range gradually decrease towards the north east. Whereas southern parts of Golestan Province and near the Golestan forest (e.g. Narchy Mount) are high altitude mountains, northern parts are consisted of vast

Fig. 3.13  Map of elevation variation in region 5 along the Caspian Sea. See Sect. 3.2 for the names of the provinces (adapted from GIS-based map of elevation, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

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plains with less height which extend to Turkmenistan borderline, while they are cut by the branches of Gorgan and Atrak rivers. Alborz range in its most eastern part reaches Aladagh, Binalud and Hezar-Masjed Mountains in region 1 (National Geographical Organization of Iran, 2011). Golestan National Park located in this region is well known for its rich biodiversity (e.g. Akhani, 1998; Akhani, Djamali, Ghorbanalizadeh, & Ramezani, 2010; Ghorbani, Mohammadi, Darvish, Kami, & Siahsarvie, 2015; Samin & Kesdek, 2014). West of Mazandaran Province consisted of a narrow coastal foothill of mountainous areas. Vast plain of Mazandaran, foothills and the middle heights of the Alborz Range are also located in this province. In the west, Gilan Province is partially located in the Caucasus ecoregion while almost 38.4% of the province’s area is covered by forests (Vahdati, Mehrvarz, Naqinezhad, & Shavvon, 2014). Hyrcanian forests (Fig. 3.14), distributed in the region 5, unlike the forests elsewhere in southern parts of the country, are deciduous forests (Naqinezhad, Hamzeh’ee, & Attar, 2008) remained from Arcto-Tertiary Geoflora with various tree genera (e.g. Pterocarya, Albizia, Parrotia, or Gleditsia) from the ice age (Scharnweber, Rietschel, & Manthey, 2007). 3.3.5.2  Climate This region receives the most amount of mean annual precipitation. There are tangible changes in humid temperate Caspian climate in the east of the Caspian Sea and contour of Gorgan River to the border of Turkmenistan. This is mainly because of increasing distance from the Caspian Sea, decreasing height in Eastern Alborz, large coastal plain and getting close to the deserts of Ghareh Ghom and Ghezel Ghom. Thus, the hot and dry condition is gradually intensified and it turns to semi-­ arid climate with less annual rainfall (see also Soltani et al., 2016). While climate types of semi-arid, semi-desert, and semi-humid are observed in east of the Mazandaran Province (Gholizadeh, 2010), westwards in Gilan Province, plain moderate climate with average annual rainfall of 1200–1300 mm, mountainous climate and semi-arid climate cover various parts of the region. Absolute maximum and absolute minimum temperatures in this area are 34 °C and −7 °C, respectively (Kazemi Rad, Mohammadi, & Teyfoori, 2015).

3.4  Chapter Connection For the purpose of conducting the researches presented in the next chapters of this book, a regional classification practice with respect to the natural and socioeconomic characteristics is conducted. The idea behind this classification is the fact that the Persian leopard is widely distributed across the country, however, there is a considerable variability in various parts of this range which may negatively affect further studies such as the countrywide potential habitat distribution modeling.

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Fig. 3.14  Land use and land cover in region 5. This area of northern Iran is covered by Hyrcanian forests. Refer to Sect. 3.2 for the numbering of provinces (adapted from GIS-based maps of land use and land cover, National Geographical Organization of Iran, accessed 2012)

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To overcome this obstacle and to have a robust study design, significantly dissimilar regions in terms of natural and socioeconomic factors are identified. Characteristics of each region concerning topography and climate are then described for better understanding of the next research chapters. The regional classification described in the current chapter is also helpful for various large scale research and conservation practices for either the leopard or other wide ranging carnivore species. Acknowledgments I would like to acknowledge National Geographical Organization, Meteorological Organization, Statistical Center and Department of Environment of Iran for providing the necessary maps and information. Consultant and comments of Dr. Ali Seifzadeh and Dr. Mohamad Roslan Mohamad Kasim are highly appreciated.

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Hyde, R. (2008). Bioclimatic housing: Innovation designs for warm climates. London, UK: Earthscan. Ingram, V. J. (2012). Forest to farm to market interfaces for non-timber forest products in Central Africa. Nature and Faune, 26(2), 43–48. Iran Land Cover Map. (2008). Geographical organization of Iran. Tehran, Iran (Unpublished Documents). Iran Land Use Map. (2008). National geographical organization of Iran. Tehran, Iran (Unpublished Documents). Iran Meteorological Organization. (2017). Climate data. Retrieved from http://www.irimo.ir/fa Iran Topography Map. (2008). National geographical organization of Iran. Iran (Unpublished Documents). Jokar Arsanjani, J.  (2011). Dynamic land use/cover change modelling: Geosimulation and multiagent-­based modelling. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer Science & Business Media. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23705-8_2 Joslin, P. (1990). Leopards in Iran. In A.  Shoemaker (Ed.), International leopard studbook (pp. 13–15). Columbia, SC: Riverbanks Zoological Park. Karam, A., Ranjbar, M., Eftekhari, M., & Yaghoob, N.  A. N. (2014). Classification of morph climatic zones of Kermanshah Province using cluster analysis method. Geography, 39(11), 235–256. Karimi-Googhari, S. (2011). Analysis of precipitation climate and evapotranspiration in Kerman of Iran. International Journal of Agricultural Science, Research and Technology in Extension and Education Systems, 1(3), 105–108. Kasmaei, M. (1994). Climatic zoning of Iran for educational buildings. Tehran, Iran: Organization for Development, Renovation and Equipping Schools of Iran. Kazemi Rad, L. K., Mohammadi, H., & Teyfoori, V. (2015). Impacts of climate change on droughts in Gilan Province, Iran. Ecologia Balkanica, 7(1), 29–38. Khorozyan, I. G., & Abramov, A. V. (2007). The leopard, Panthera pardus (Carnivora, Felidae) and its resilience to human pressure in the Caucasus. Zoology in the Middle East, 41(1), 11–24. Khosravi, S., Namiranian, M., Ghazanfari, H., & Shirvani, A. (2012). Crown biomass relationships of Lebanon oak in northern Zagros forests of Iran. Croatian Journal of Forest Engineering, 33(2), 239–247. Kiabi, B. H., Dareshouri, B. F., Ghaemi, R. A., & Jahanshahi, M. (2002). Population status of the Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor Pocock, 1927) in Iran. Zoology in the Middle East, 26(1), 41–47. Mirmousavi, S.  H., Gharoosi, H.  A., & Khaefi, N. (2014). Study of climatic characteristics of Kermanshah and Kordestan based on factor and cluster analyses. Journal of Geography and Planning, 47, 235. Mirzaei, F., & Yazdani, M. M. (1992). Darreh Bagh protected area in Fars Province. Fars, Iran: Fars DoE Provincial Office. Mobargha, M. (2006). Habitat evaluation of Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Turan National Park, Iran (Master’s thesis). Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Molavi-Arabshahi, M., Arpe, K., & Leroy, S. A. G. (2015). Precipitation and temperature of the Southwest Caspian Sea region during the last 55 years: Their trends and teleconnections with large-scale atmospheric phenomena. International Journal of Climatology, 36(5), 2156–2172. Mooi, E., & Sarstedt, A. (2011). A concise guide to market research: The process, data, and methods using IBM SPSS statistics. New York, NY: Springer. Mousaei Sanjerehei, M. (2014). Determination of the probability of the occurrence of Iran life zones (an integration of binary logistic regression and geostatistics). Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental Sciences, 4, 408–417. Naqinezhad, A., Hamzeh’ee, B., & Attar, F. (2008). Vegetation–environment relationships in the Alderwood communities of Caspian lowlands, N.  Iran (toward an ecological classification). Flora-Morphology, Distribution, Functional Ecology of Plants, 203(7), 567–577.

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Shahriar, F., Montazeri, M., Momeni, M., & Freidooni, A. (2015). Regionalization of the climatic areas of Qazvin Province using multivariate statistical methods. Modern Applied Science, 9(2), 123. Shirvani, A. (2017). Change in annual precipitation in the northwest of Iran. Meteorological Applications, 24(2), 211–218. Silakhori, E., & Arami, S. A. (2014). Climate role in desertification of Khorasan provinces, Iran. International Journal of Agriculture and Crop Sciences, 7(6), 297–303. Soltani, M., Laux, P., Kunstmann, H., Stan, K., Sohrabi, M. M., Molanejad, M., … Zawar-Reza, P. (2016). Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 126(3–4), 775–795. Soltanzadeh, Z., Saghaei, N., & Ostovan, H. (2015). A contribution to the fauna of fruit flies (Diptera, Tephritidae) in Fars Province, southern Iran. Linzer Biologische Beiträge, 47(1), 925–937. Soufi, M. (2004, July). Morpho-climatic classification of gullies in Fars Province, Southwest of IR Iran. In Paper presented at 13th International Soil Conservation Organisation Conference, July 2004, Brisbane, Australia. Statistical Centre of Iran. (2012). Iran statistical yearbook. Presidency of the I.R.I., vice presidency for strategic planning and supervision, Tehran, Iran. Stein, A. B., Athreya, V., Gerngross, P., Balme, G., Henschel, P., Karanth, U., … Ghoddousi, A. (2016). Panthera pardus, The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species2016:.e..T15954A50659089. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2016-1.RLTS.T15954A50659089.en Taghdisi, M., Mohammadi, A., Nourani, E., Shokri, S., Rezaei, A., & Kaboli, M. (2013). Diet and habitat use of the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in northeastern Iran. Turkish Journal of Zoology, 37, 554–561. Taghizadeh-Mehjardi, R., Mahmoodi, S., & Heidari, A. (2009). Micromorphological evidences of climatic change in Yazd region, Iran. Journal of Mountain Science, 6(2), 162–172. The Gazetteer of Mountains in the I. R. of Iran. (2006). National geographical organization of Iran. Tehran, Iran. Tilson, R., & Nyhus, P. (2010). Tigers of the world: The science, politics, and conservation of Panthera tigris (2nd ed.). London, UK: Elsevier. Torabi, S.  M. M., & Halabian, A.  H. (2015). Effects of changes in temperature and rainfall on potato cultivation in South Khorasan Province using the model LARS. Biological Forum – An International Journal, 7(1), 512–517. Vahdati, F. B., Mehrvarz, S. S., Naqinezhad, A. R., & Shavvon, R. S. (2014). Floristic characteristics of the Hyrcanian sub-mountain forests (case study: Ata-Kuh Forest). Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 12(2), 169–183. Valipour, A., Namiraninan, M., Etemad, V., & Ghazanfari, H. (2009). Relationships between diameter, height and geographical aspects with bark thickness of Lebanon oak tree (Quercus libani Oliv.) in Armardeh, Baneh (northern Zagros of Iran). Research Journal of Forestry, 3(1), 1–7. Verdade, L. M., Lyra-Jorge, M. C., & Piña, C. I. (Eds.). (2014). Applied ecology and human dimensions in biological conservation (pp. 3–17). Heidelberg, Germany: Springer. Whittow, J. (1984). The penguin dictionary of physical geography (p. 352). London, UK: Penguin.

Chapter 4

Countrywide Distribution Modelling of the Persian Leopard Potential Habitats on a Regional Basis in Iran Arezoo Sanei, Mohamed Zakaria, Laleh Daraei, Mohamad Reza Besmeli, Faramarz Esfandiari, Heidar Veisi, Hossein Absalan, and Farid Fasihi

4.1  Introduction Species ecological niche is a theoretical basis for various recently developed approaches that quantify the relationship between the environmental variables and occurrence of the species (see also Elith & Leathwick, 2009; Franklin, 2010; Hirzel & Le Lay, 2008; Miller, 2010; Pearson & Dawson, 2003; Stockwell, 2006). However, different studies differ in terms of the nature of the niche they actually present (i.e. fundamental or realized niche; Sillero, 2011). Accordingly, species distribution modelling (SDM) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) must be differentiated in that the SDM models estimate fundamental A. Sanei (*) Asian Leopard Specialist Society, Tehran, Iran Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] M. Zakaria Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia L. Daraei (formerly) GEF Small Grant Program at UNDP, Tehran, Iran M. R. Besmeli Ghaenat DoE Office, Ghaen, Iran F. Esfandiari Damghan DoE Office, Semnan, Iran H. Veisi Koredstan DoE General Office, Sanandaj, Iran H. Absalan Zanjan DoE General Office, Zanjan, Iran F. Fasihi Asian Leopard Specialist Society, Tehran, Iran © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 A. Sanei (ed.), Research and Management Practices for Conservation of the Persian Leopard in Iran, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28003-1_4

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niche while ENM estimates the realized niche (Barve et al., 2011; Franklin, 2010; Peterson & Soberόn, 2012). Realized niche is the portion of fundamental niche that is actually occupied by the species. This is for the reason that, limiting factors such as competition and interaction with other species do not let the species to occupy entire fundamental niche in reality (Hutchinson, 1957). Therefore, to assess the realized niche, further investigations are required to exclude the actual inaccessible areas to the species (Phillips, Dudik, & Schapire, 2004). Considering this background, the current chapter is concerned with the species distribution modelling concept. Correspondingly, the term potential distribution is not addressing the actual current leopard presence across the entire identified suitable habitats, the current occupancy status of the habitats and the chances for dispersal or colonization.

4.2  Objectives and Hypothesis Specific objectives for this chapter include: 1. To estimate potential distribution of the Persian leopard in Iran considering the extensive variability of the environmental condition 2. To investigate the possibility that the Persian leopard potential range in Iran is in the process of a major fragmentation as hypothesized earlier by Sanei et  al. (2016) 3. To predict landscape corridor/s to improve distribution pattern connectivity in a metapopulation scale 4. To identify the main environmental factors contributing to assessment of the leopard potential distribution in Iran The null hypothesis in this research is: H0: Permutation importance of the research environmental variables in the best fitted MaxEnt models does not significantly vary according to the regional differences of the environmental variables.

4.3  Methodology 4.3.1  Leopard Occurrence Data Sample size together with the well distributed data has considerable influence on the performance of the species distribution models (Franklin, 2010; Peterson, Willett, & Thorne, 2011; Reese, Wilson, Hoeting, & Flather, 2005). Thus, for the regional potential distribution modelling, sufficient and well distributed nationwide data stored and archived systematically in the Persian leopard national database (Sanei et al., 2016) was used for the study span from 2007 to 2011 (Persian Leopard Online Portal, unpublished records, accessed 07 August 2012).

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Persian leopard database was first established in 2002 (Sanei, 2004, 2007) and then developed as an online portal  by the Asian Leopard Specialist Society (i.e. Persian leopard Online Portal). The database includes all the records of species presence signs (e.g. faeces, remains of prey and footprints), direct observations, mortalities, road crashes, injured or sick individuals, livestock-leopard conflicts and threats to the species survival either in protected areas or elsewhere outside this range, systematic/opportunistic camera trappings, local scale researches, and reports by local communities, wildlife rangers and mountain climbers. These data goes regularly through the reliability assessment process including field visits, camera trappings or other techniques. Afterward, all the records are classified to two reliability categories indicating confirm or probable presence of the species (Sanei, 2016; Sanei et al., 2016). As an additional effort, each region (see Fig. 3.2 in the previous chapter) was then covered with grid cells of 5 km × 5 km which is proportional to the data resolution stored systematically. This cell size is manageable for further investigations in the cells with lack of data. Thus, further investigations were conducted to assess any other reliable records with sufficient facts (e.g. skull or carcass, video, photo from known sources) in the areas where lack of data was questionable (e.g. mountainous areas with sufficient prey census data). Consequently, together with the constant variables across all five regions, a total of 554 well distributed leopard presence records from all the provinces (except for Hamedan Province with non-detection of the species over 30 years) were used for the regional MaxEnt modellings.

4.3.2  Environmental Variables A total of 12 natural and 5 human factors were selected as the potential predictor variables based on their biologically meaningful relevance to the leopard presence (Khorozyan & Abramov, 2007; Khorozyan, Malkhasyan, Asmaryan, & Abramov, 2010; Mobargha, 2006; Mondal, Sankar, & Qureshi, 2013; Omidi, Kaboli, Karami, Mahini, & Kiabi, 2010; Sanei, 2007; Sanei & Zakaria, 2011a, 2011b, 2011c, 2011d; Sanei, Mousavi, Mousivand, & Zakaria, 2012). These factors include geology, land cover and vegetation type, slope, slope direction (i.e. aspect of slope), elevation, fault lines, climate, average annual temperature, average annual rainfall, flood and rivers for natural factors and land use, location of cities, location of villages, protected areas and protection level of reserves (e.g. national park, protected area) as well as roads (including main and sub roads) for human factors.

4.3.3  Analysis Stith and Kumar (2002) and Khorozyan et  al. (2010) recommended the use of 1:250,000 topographic maps for predictor variables. In this research, the only accessible georeferenced countrywide maps that are related to the years 2006, 2001 and

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Table 4.1  Setting of the maps used for each environmental and human predictor variable No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Predictor variable Geology Vegetation type Slope Aspect of slope Elevation Fault lines Climate Average annual temperature Average annual rainfall Flood Rivers Land use Location of cities Location of villages Protected areas and protection level of reserves Land cover Roads

Map type Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file Shape file

Scale 1:250,000 1:250,000 1:250,000 1:250,000 1:250,000 1:250,000 1:100,000 1:100,000 1:100,000 1:250,000 1:250,000 1:250,000 1:50,000 1:50,000 1:250,000 1:250,000 1:50,000

Area of coverage Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide Countrywide

1996 obtained in which the characteristics are mentioned in Table 4.1. We used the outcomes of the previous chapter (Sanei, 2020) concerning the regional classification of the natural and socioeconomic characteristics in this research to develop the regional models that eventually cover the entire country. We believe that modeling on a regional basis extensively improve accuracy and precision of the produced models.  Therefore, the countrywide maps were then prepared according to the regional boundaries (see Fig. 3.2 in the previous chapter). Attributable to the requirement of the MaxEnt software (concerning distribution modelling of the leopard), ASCII files for the regional maps were produced with the same settings (e.g. extensions, grid cells, resolution and dimensions) that perfectly match each other. Thus, the maps were converted to ASCII raster grids with cell sizes of 5 km × 5 km. The size of grid cells was selected based on the objectives of the study, area of the study region and resolution of the presence data. Correlation among the variables may lead to the over-predicted models and false interpretation of variable importance (Jueterbock, 2015). Thus, ENMTools was used to test the correlation among environmental variables in each of the five regions. The software runs Pearson correlation coefficient for every pairwise comparison of environmental variables’ raster files (Warren, Glor, & Turelli, 2008). This allows removing the correlated variables before conducting the modelling p­ rocesses. Pearson correlation coefficient is a two-dimensional normal distribution where correlation coefficient (r) close to 1 indicates strong positive linear relationship, values close to −1 mean strong negative relationship and value of 0 means no linear relationship (Dalgaard, 2002). In case of strong correlation, the variable with lower permutation importance in the primarily developed best fitted model was deleted and the model was run without the variable again.

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Arc GIS 9.3 was used for mapping presence points and preparation of the map layers. Maximum entropy approach by means of MaxEnt software version 3.3.3k was used to develop the regional potential habitat distribution models. Previous studies reported this approach to be capable of producing worthy predictions also from imperfect data sets (Elith et al., 2006; Hernandez, Graham, Master, & Albert, 2006; Phillips, Anderson, & Schapire, 2006; Phillips et al., 2004). MaxEnt logistic output with 13 default suitability classes was used for developing potential habitats in this chapter. Leopard presence data was then entered in excel form (CSV format). Receiver operating characteristic represents a trade-off between false negative (i.e. when records show present but prediction indicates absent) and false positive (i.e. when records show absent but prediction indicates present) rates for various cut off values (Fielding & Bell, 1997). AUC (Area Under the Curve) was used to test the model fit to the relative data set. The values for AUC ranging from 0.5 to 1 indicate more accuracy for the values closer to 1 while AUC value of 0.5 indicates no discrimination (Pearson, 2007). Contribution of the environmental variables to the regional distribution models was estimated via Jackknife test. The program was set to run 500 iterations with convergence threshold of 0.00001 (Jenks, Songsasen, & Leimgruber, 2012; Phillips & Dudik, 2008). Sub-sampling with 15 replications and test percentage of 20% was used to divide the data set into subsets in which each subset was used to test the data set. Regularization multiplier which affects localization and closely fitted distribution models was set on the basis of AUC test of models’ performances (i.e. one in all regional models). Aside from the validation process during the analysis, to evaluate the final predictive maps, local knowledgeable persons including DoE experts, wildlife rangers and local people in all five regions were requested to assess the maps on the basis of their local information. Pearson two-tailed correlation was calculated to test the null hypothesis.

4.4  Results and Discussion A total of five regional models with highest AUC of training gain (Fig. 4.1), i.e. 0.902 (region 1), 0.914 (region 2), 0.876 (region 3), 0.941 (region 4) and 0.917 (region 5) were selected as the best models. The gain is a measure of goodness of fit and it is closely related to deviance. In other word, it is about quality of fit statistic to a model starting from uniform distribution (gain of 0) and improving repeatedly while generating probability distribution over each pixel to eventually fit to the data (Phillips, Anderson, Dudík, Schapire, & Blair, 2017). While ROC curve shows the relationship between the sensitivity, i.e. proportion of correctly predicted observed occurrences, and one – specificity which is proportion of incorrectly predicted observed absences (Pearson, 2007), AUC (area under the ROC curve) of training gain for each regional model indicates that modelling was performed well in each region. Thus, if a record is selected randomly, there is a high probability that these

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Fig. 4.1  Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for training data and area under the curve (AUC) for the best fitted model. While black line represents a random prediction (AUC = 0.5), red line indicates prediction performance using training data. AUC of training data for region 1 (A), 2 (B), 3 (C), 4 (D) and 5 (E) is equal to 0.915, 0.902, 0.941, 0.877 and 0.917, respectively

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models correctly discriminate between presence and absence locations. One sided P values for the null hypothesis of the models indicating that the test points are predicted no better than a random prediction was rejected showing that the result of each of the best fitted models is significant (P 0.9 should be eliminated (Field, 2005) in which none was found in the current correlation matrix (Table  6.2). This is worth reminding that, the variables in this study (Sect. 6.2.2) have been selected according to the findings of Chaps. 4 and 5 which demonstrated importance of each variable in the reduction of habitat suitability, splitting, and fragmentation process of the leopard areas. Thus, elimination of any variable results in loss of informative contribution of that variable in predicting the cumulative effect of variables on leopard persistence. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is a multivariate statistical technique that converts a set of correlated variables to a set of un-correlated axes, i.e., principle components. PCA reduces dimensionality by creating new set of variables (i.e., principle component) while explaining the variability under the condition that each

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Table 6.2  Pearson correlation coefficient matrix for the study variables Variables PA Correlation

NP

PA

1.00

0.671

−0.10 0.04

NP

0.67

1.00

0.18

−0.12 0.04

−0.27 −0.06 0.17

1.00

−0.27 0.55

−0.39 −0.13 −0.45 −0.47 −0.38 −0.21 −0.50

WR

−0.10 0.18

F

0.04

RA

−0.20 0.04

WR

F

−0.12 −0.27 1.00 0.55

RA

DF

IF

C

−0.20 −0.23 −0.00 0.55

−0.21 0.31

−0.21 1.00

0.36

0.08

MR

V

HP

0.38

0.22

0.56

−0.06 −0.26 0.26 0.23

0.32

SR 0.39 −0.09

−0.22 0.35

−0.39 −0.20 −0.61 −0.66 −0.55 −0.25 −0.70

DF

−0.23 −0.27 −0.39 0.31

−0.39 1.00

0.78

0.07

0.05

0.23

−0.09 0.48

IF

−0.00 −0.06 −0.13 0.36

−0.20 0.78

1.00

0.20

0.11

0.13

0.11

0.48

C

0.55

−0.45 0.08

−0.61 0.07

0.20

1.00

0.89

0.38

0.79

0.74

0.17

MR

0.38

−0.06 −0.47 0.23

−0.66 0.05

0.11

0.89

1.00

0.51

0.61

0.72

V

0.22

−0.26 −0.38 0.32

−0.55 0.23

0.13

0.38

0.51

1.00

0.11

0.70

−0.21 −0.22 −0.25 −0.09 0.11

HP

0.56

0.26

SR

0.39

−0.09 −0.50 0.35

−0.70 0.48

0.48

0.79

0.61

0.11

1.00

0.41

0.74

0.72

0.70

0.41

1.00

PA protected area, NP national park, WR wildlife reserve, F forest and afforestation, RA Range Land, DF dry farming, IF irrigated farming, C city, MR main road, V village, HP human population, SR sub-road 1 Bold numbers show some degree of correlation between relative variables

Table 6.3  Test of appropriateness of the study method (i.e., PCA) in relation to the data set using KMO and Bartlett’s test of sphericity Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin measure of sampling adequacy Bartlett’s test of sphericity

Approx. Chi-Square Df Sig.

0.635 175.516 66 0.000

component is un-correlated to the other components (see also Sect. 6.2.3; Janžekovič & Novak, 2012; Robertson et al., 2001). As shown in Table  6.3, Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin measure of sampling adequacy which is a value between 0 and 1 is calculated as 0.635. The outcome value is >0.5 (Kaiser, 1974), thus, indicating that selection of the PCA method for analysis is appropriate to the original data set. Subsequently, Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity shows the result of 0.000 which is highly significant (P  1, are retained (Table 6.4, Fig. 6.5). To achieve a simple structure that improves interpretation of more than one retained component, a linear transformation called rotation is performed. After rotation, the relative importance of the four retained components is equalized (Field, 2005). As a result, in Table 6.4, the eigenvalues in the columns after extraction are more variable comparing to those values after rotation. Even though that is possible to select the number of factors to be extracted by the SPSS, since there are less than 30 variables included in this research and also most of the communalities after extraction are more than 0.7, considering the Kaiser’s criterion, extracting four components by the software is recognized as accurate (Braeken & Van Assen, 2017; Stevens, 2002).

6.3.3  Communality Communality is defined as the total influence from all factors associated with one observed variable (Badaruddoza, Kumar, & Kaur, 2015). Table  6.5 is concerned with communality before and after extraction. This is considered as 1 for all the

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Fig. 6.5  Scree plot presenting the eigenvalues for linear components before extraction in PCA Table 6.5  Communalities and component matrix Variables

Protected area National park Wildlife reserve Forest and afforestation Range land Dry farm Irrigated Farm City Main road Village Human Population Sub-road

Communalities Initial communality 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Extraction 0.896 0.845 0.513 0.770

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

0.673 0.916 0.924 0.934 0.861 0.706 0.868 0.887

Component matrix Component 1 2 3 0.689 0.686 −0.638

4

0.642 −0.793

−0.724 0.693

0.873 0.864 0.664 0.928

Extraction method: principal component analysis

variables before the extraction while variance is shared. However, proportion of variance in each variable that is explained by the retained components is presented in the extraction column. In the section entitled component matrix in Table 6.5, loadings of the variables onto the four extracted components (before rotation) are presented. Since the absolute value for coefficient display format in the SPSS analysis was set as 0.6, thus, the loadings less than this value are not shown in this section (blank spaces).

6  An Innovative Approach for Modeling Cumulative Effect of Variations…

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6.3.4  Rotated Component Matrix Varimax orthogonal rotation resulted in a rotated component matrix in which values of 0.77 0.38–0.77 0.23–0.38