Nationalism and exclusion of migrants : cross-national comparisons 9781315248349, 1315248344, 9781351915762, 1351915762, 9781351915779, 1351915770

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NATIONALISM AND EXCLUSION OF MIGRANTS

DAMES

Dansk Center for Migration og Etniske Studier

EUROPEAN RESEARCH CENTRE ON MIGRATION A ETHNIC RELATIONS

Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants Cross-National Comparisons

Edited by MÉROVE GIJSBERTS, LOUK HAGENDOORN and PEER SCHEEPERS European Research Centre on Migration and Ethnic Relations (ERCOMER) Inter-university Centre for Social Science and Methodology (ICS)

First published 2004 by Ashgate Publishing Published 2017 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, 0X14 4RN 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Copyright © Mérove Gijsberts, Louk Hagendoorn and Peer Scheepers 2004 Mérove Gijsberts, Louk Hagendoorn and Peer Scheepers have asserted their right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the editors of this work. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Nationalism and exclusion of migrants : cross-national comparisons. - (Research in migration and ethnic relations series) 1. Emigration and immigration - Political aspects Cross-cultural studies 2. Emigration and immigration Social aspects - Cross-cultural studies 3. Nationalism Cross-cultural studies 4. Marginality, Social Cross-cultural studies 5. Ethnicity - Cross-cultural studies 6. Minorities - Social conditions - Cross-cultural studies 7. Ethnic relations - Cross-cultural studies I. Gijsberts, Mérove Isabelle Léontine II. Hagendoorn, Louk, 1945- III. Scheepers, P. L. H. 325 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Nationalism and exclusion of migrants : cross-national comparisons / edited by Mérove Gijsberts, Louk Hagendoorn, and Peer Scheepers. p. cm. - (Research in migration and ethnic relations series) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-7546-3993-2 1. Nationalism—Cross-cultural studies. 2. Emigration and immigration—Social aspects-Cross-cultural studies. 3. National characteristics-Cross-cultural studies. 4. Ethnic attitudes-Cross-cultural studies. 5. Ethnocentrism-Cross-cultural studies. 6. Ethnic relations-Cross-cultural studies. 7. Marginality, Social-Cross-cultural studies. I. Gijsberts, Mérove Isabelle Léontine, 1970- II. Hagendoorn, A., 1945- III. Scheepers, Peer, 1958-IV. Series. JC311.N29515 2003 325M-dc22 ISBN 13: 978-0-7546-3993-0 (hbk)

2003063623

Contents List of Figures List of Tables List of Contributors Acknowledgements 1

INTRODUCTION Marcel Coenders, Mérove Gijsberts, Louk Hagendoorn and Peer Scheepers

vii ix xiii xv

1

PART I: NATIONALIST ATTITUDES 2 3

Chauvinism and Patriotism in 22 Countries Marcel Coenders, Mérove Gijsberts and Peer Scheepers

29

National Identification of Russians in Five Former Soviet Republics Edwin Poppe and Louk Hagendoorn

11

PART II: EXCLUSIONIST REACTIONS 4

Resistance to the Presence of Immigrants and Refugees in 22 Countries Marcel Coenders, Mérove Gijsberts and Peer Scheepers

97

5

Exclusion of Legal Migrants in Western Europe Mérove Gijsberts, Peer Scheepers and Marcel Coenders

121

6

Social Distance of Russian Minorities from Titular Population in Former Soviet Republics Edwin Poppe and Louk Hagendoorn

143

Extreme Right-Wing Voting in Western Europe Marcel Lubbers, Mérove Gijsberts and Peer Scheepers

157

7

Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants

VI

PART III: ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN NATIONALIST ATTITUDES AND EXCLUSIONIST REACTIONS 8

Associations between Nationalist Attitudes and Exclusionist Reactions in 22 Countries Marcel Coenders and Peer Scheepers 187

9

Nationalist Attitudes and Exclusionist Reactions in Former Soviet Republics Louk Hagendoorn and Edwin Poppe

209

Conclusions Mérove Gijsberts, Louk Hagendoorn and Peer Scheepers

225

10

Appendices Bibliography Author Index Subject Index

245 261 277 283

List of Figures 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 5.1 7.1 7.2 9.1 9.2 9.3

Net migration rate (number of migrants per 1000 inhabitants) in 10 Western countries in 1995 Ethnic competition theory: theoretical model Country-level residuals in chauvinism Country-level residuals in patriotism Predicted effect of the change in asylum applications on resistance to immigrants Predicted effect of asylum applications on resistance to refugees Country-level residuals in resistance to immigrants Country-level residuals in resistance to refugees Country-level residuals in ethnic exclusionism Calculation of the space for the extreme right-wing parties Country-level residuals in extreme right-wing voting Average scores of titulars' patriotism, chauvinism, negative stereotypes of Russians and social distance from Russians Average scores of Russians' patriotism, chauvinism, negative stereotypes of titulars and social distance from titulars Adjusted average scores of titulars' chauvinism, negative stereotypes of Russians and social distance from Russians

3 19 62 63 112 113 115 116 137 172 177 215 216 217

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List of Tables 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

Number of asylum seekers per 100,000 inhabitants in countries of the European Union in 1995 Ethnic composition in various Central and Eastern European countries in percentages of the total population Nationals and non-EU citizens in countries of the European Union in 1995 Indicators of dimensions of nationalist attitudes Explorative factor analysis of items referring to nationalist attitudes: pooled data set of 23 samples (N=24,778) Invariance in measurement models of nationalist attitudes: multi-sample analysis Reliabilities of the Likert scales for chauvinism, patriotism, perceived ethnic threat and localistic orientation Perceived ethnic threat: overall mean score, communality, and factorloading Mean score and percentage of respondents with high scores on chauvinism and patriotism in 22 countries Mean score and percentage of respondents with high scores on chauvinism by individual characteristics in 22 countries: bivariate analyses on pooled data set (N=24,247) Mean score and percentage of respondents with high scores on patriotism by individual characteristics in 22 countries: bivariate analyses on pooled data set (N=24,247) Successive models in multi-level analyses Unstandardized parameter estimates from multi-level models of chauvinism Unstandardized parameter estimates from multi-level models of patriotism Contextual-level indicators of ethnic competition and their corresponding contrast weights Contextual-level indicators of assimilation and their corresponding contrast weights Mean score on Russian identification and percentage of Russians identifying as Russian in the five Former Soviet Republics Mean score on Russian identification and percentage of Russians from various social categories identifying as Russian

4 4 22 39 39 41 42 46 49 51 52 53 56 58 79 80 82 83

X

3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.1

Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants

Mean score on Russian identification and percentage of Russians from various assimilation categories identifying as Russian Effects of individual-level variables on Russian identification Effects of contextual-level indicators of ethnic competition on Russian identification Effects of contextual-level indicators of assimilation on Russian identification Effects of contextual-level indicators of assimilation on Russian identification among Russians who are not assimilated Mean score and percentage of respondents with high scores on resistance to immigrants and refugees in 22 countries Mean score and percentage of respondents with high scores on resistance to immigrants by individual characteristics in 22 countries: bivariate analyses on pooled data set (N=24,247) Mean score and percentage of respondents with high scores on resistance to refugees by individual characteristics in 22 countries: bivariate analyses on pooled data set (N=24,247) Unstandardized parameter estimates from multilevel models of resistance to immigrants Unstandardized parameter estimates from multi-level models of resistance to refugees Indicators of ethnic exclusionism of legally established immigrants and perceived ethnic threat Reliability of the Likert scales (Cronbach's alphas) Country characteristics: migration patterns and socio-economic indicators per country Ethnic exclusionism of legally established immigrants and perceived ethnic threat: LISREL factor analysis on the pooled data set of 15 countries Average support and percentage in support of ethnic exclusionism of legally established immigrants and perceived ethnic threat in 15 European countries (N=12,728) Average support and percentage in support of ethnic exclusionism of legally established immigrants by individual characteristics in 15 European countries (N= 12,728) Different multi-level models of ethnic exclusionism of legally established immigrants in 15 European countries Parameter estimates from multi-level models on ethnic exclusionism of legally established immigrants in 15 European countries Mean score on social distance in public and private domains and percentage of Russians indicating to maintain social distance from titulars in the five Former Soviet Republics

84 86 87 88 89 103 105 106 108 110 125 126 127 129 130 131 133 13 5 147

List of Tables

6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4

7.5 7.6 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.2 9.3

Mean score on social distance from titulars and percentage of Russians from various social categories indicating to maintain social distance from titulars Mean score on social distance and percentage of Russians from various social categories indicating to maintain social distance Effects of individual-level variables on social distance from titulars Effects of contextual-level indicators of ethnic competition on social distance Effects of contextual-level indicators of assimilation on social distance Data sources and net number of cases for 16 countries Extreme right-wing parties and proportion of votes in 16 European countries Percentage of votes for extreme right-wing parties in Western Europe by individual characteristics (N=49,801) Economic country characteristics (unemployment rate and percentage of non-EU citizens), political country characteristics (margin for extreme right-wing and immigration-restriction climate) and characteristics of extreme-right parties Parameter estimates from logistic multilevel models on voting for the extreme right-wing parties in Western Europe Parameter estimates from logistic random-slope models with cross-level interactions on voting for extreme right-wing parties in Western Europe Polychoric correlations between dimensions of nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions in 23 national samples Overview of polychoric correlations between dimensions of nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions in 23 national samples Pearson correlations between dimensions of nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions (societal circumstances) Pearson correlations between dimensions of nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions (individual circumstances) Principal components of patriotism and chauvinism statements before rotation. Associations of Russians' nationalistic beliefs and social distance from titulars across republics and in each republic Associations of Russians' nationalistic beliefs and negative stereotypes of titulars across republics and in each republic

XI

149 150 151 152 153 165 167 169

171 174 178 195 196 200 203 213 219 219

Xll

9.4 9.5 B.l C.l C.2 C.3

Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants

Associations of titulars' nationalistic beliefs and social distance from the Russian minority across republics and in each republic Associations of titulars' nationalistic beliefs and negative stereotypes of the Russian minority National samples: sample size, percentage of respondents from the ethnic majority group in national sample, and final sample size after selection of ethnic majority respondents Contextual characteristics: economic prosperity and unemployment Contextual characteristics: economic conditions and social security Contextual characteristics: demographic conditions

221 221 246 250 251 253

List of Contributors Marcel Coenders (1970) currently lectures at the Department of Research Methodology at the University of Nijmegen in the Netherlands. His research interests include prejudice, nationalism and survey research methodology. He finished his dissertation on nationalistic attitudes and ethnic exclusionism at the Department of Sociology at the University of Nijmegen in the Netherlands. He has published articles in European Sociological Review, Political Psychology, and European Journal of Social Psychology. Mérove Gijsberts (1970) is a senior researcher at the Social and Cultural Planning Office (SCP) of the Netherlands. She conducted the present study at the Department of Sociology of Nijmegen University in the Netherlands. Her research interests include ethnic minorities, political behaviour and social and cultural attitudes in a cross-national perspective. She has published on these topics in among others Acta Sociológica, European Sociological Review, European Political Science Research and European Societies. Louk Hagendoorn (1945) is professor of General Social Sciences at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. He was director of the European Research Centre on Migration and Ethnic Relations (Utrecht) and is currently director of the Utrecht Graduate School of Social and Behavioral Sciences at Utrecht University. His research interests are focused on inter-group relations, ethnic and national stereotypes, racism and discrimination, and political psychology. He has completed research in Western and Eastern Europe on these themes and published widely. He has published extensively on ethnic relations, stereotypes and nationalism in international social psychology and cross-cultural psychology journals. Marcel Lubbers (1973) is currently an assistant professor at the Department of Sociology, University of Nijmegen where he previously finished his dissertation on exclusionistic electorates. His main research interests are extreme right-wing voting, euroscepticism, and ethnic exclusionism. He has published on these themes in Acta Política, European Sociological Review, Ethnic and Racial Studies and the European Journal of Political Science.

XIV

Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants

Edwin Poppe (1967) is a social psychologist working for the European Research Centre on Migration and Ethnic Relations and the Department of Cross-cultural Studies at Utrecht University. In his Ph.D study he conducted a cross-national comparative survey on national and ethnic stereotypes in Central and Eastern Europe. His current research and lecturing activities focus on ethnic prejudice, nationalism and international migration. He has published a number of articles on national and ethnic stereotypes in the European Journal of Social Psychology and British Journal of Social Psychology, while articles on ethnic identification of Russians appeared in Europe-Asia Studies. Peer Scheepers (1958) is a professor of Research Methodology at the University of Nijmegen. He is also national coordinator of the European Social Survey for the Netherlands and director of Social and Cultural Research at the Faculty of Social Sciences in Nijmegen. His main interests involve (longitudinal and comparative studies on) ethnic exclusionism, social capital and survey methodology. He has published widely on these themes in European Sociological Review, Review of Religious Research, Sociology of Religion, European Societies, and in Ethnic and Racial Studies.

Acknowledgements We wish to thank the Dutch National Science Foundation (NWO) for funding a research program that formed the basis of this book. In 1998, this Foundation granted us the funds to carry out an ambitious and innovative research program including several research projects to be concluded in Ph.D. dissertations (project numbers 510-05-0801 through 0805) and a post-doctoral proposal (project number 510-05-0806) to be concluded with an overview of crucial insights and robust findings. The Ph.D. dissertations have already been defended and this book presents the insights and findings in a nutshell in an integrated manner. We are grateful to Maykel Verkuyten as an editor for his favourable evaluation of the manuscript for the Research on Migration and Ethnic Relations Series and we thank anonymous reviewers for their invaluable comments on the manuscript. Moreover, we would like to thank at Ashgate: Caroline Wintersgill, for her efficient way of getting the publication process started, Mary Savigar and Pam Bertram. We are indebted to Sylvie Poirier, ERCOMER's publications consultant, for editing the text for language and preparing the manuscript for the publisher. Peer Scheepers and Louk Hagendoorn Utrecht/Nijmegen, September 2003

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1

Introduction Marcel Coenders, Mérove Gijsberts, Louk Hagendoorn and Peer Scheepers

Global processes have made many societies more multicultural and multiethnic than ever before in history. Two major trends are taking place worldwide: massive migration waves and increased inter-ethnic conflict. Many nations have seen exclusionist reactions towards these new minorities. Such reactions may be a source of latent conflicts between ethnic groups. In recent years, inter-ethnic conflicts became manifest: there has been an upraise in ethnic conflicts and violence in many regions in the world (Gurr, 2000; Gurr and Harff, 1994; Tagil, 1984). Most clearly, this has been demonstrated by the violent ethnic struggles in Burundi and Rwanda (see Lemarchand, 1996). But there are many more persistent ethnic conflicts around the world such as the ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia, the repression of the Kurds in Turkey and Iraq and the riots between major ethnic groups in Indonesia and Malaysia (Banton, 2000). This study focuses on the attitudes1 of individuals towards, on the one hand, their own ethnic group and, on the other hand, ethnic outgroups and thus, concerns the issue of latent conflicts between ethnic groups. The study of ethnic attitudes and interethnic relations is a major research area in the social sciences. To a large extent, previous research focused exclusively on exclusionist reactions. Exclusionism may manifest itself in various ways, such as in unfavourable attitudes towards ethnic minorities, in the opposition towards equal treatment of minorities, in the denial of civil rights or in voting for extreme right-wing parties who question the presence of ethnic outgroups in their country. Fewer studies claimed that people who support ethnic exclusionism also strongly support nationalism, more particularly nationalist attitudes, such as feelings of national pride or even national superiority. Previous research disentangled many different dimensions of both exclusionist reactions and nationalist attitudes and revealed that support for each of these dimensions varied. However, no study so far directly compared several dimensions of nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions. Therefore, the first aim of this book is to fill this gap and to consider different aspects of exclusionist reactions and nationalist attitudes simultaneously. Some research focused on both types of attitudes simultaneously and showed that positive attitudes toward the ethnic ingroup are accompanied by negative attitudes towards ethnic outgroups, a phenomenon labelled as 'ethnocentrism' (Sumner, 1906; Adorno et al., 1950/1982; Billiet et al., 1996; Scheepers et al., 1989). However, the

2

Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants

presumed association between exclusionist reactions and nationalist attitudes has until now only been tested in a few single-country studies (see Poppe, 1998). Therefore, the second aim of this book is to analyse whether ethnic exclusionist reactions and nationalist attitudes are indeed systematically related in many countries, thereby considering the multidimensionality of both concepts as well as their empirical associations. Previous research has shown that people differ in their nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions. Classical studies on this topic have shown that social identity and personality traits affect nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions (for example, Adorno et al., 1950/1982). More recently, these attitudes were shown to differ between social categories (for example, Billiet et al., 1996). However, these studies focused exclusively on the individual level, thereby neglecting country-level explanations. So far, we do not know much about differences in nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions between social contexts (see Williams, 1994). This study will therefore not only examine whether variations in nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions reflect individual-level differences, but also whether they reflect country-level differences. So, the third aim of this book is to describe and explain differences in nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions on a broad cross-national comparative scope. The World Context: Immigration Waves and Ethnic Composition The central question in our study is to what extent people in a number of societies show different reactions towards other ethnic groups. For this purpose, we have to consider the specific societal circumstances in which nationalist attitudes and exclusionist reactions occur. A distinction can be made between three types of societies: longstanding immigration countries, Western-European nations and the former state-socialist societies of Eastern Europe. Firstly, we regard the USA, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand as longstanding immigration countries. These countries have had a long history of largescale immigration, in which over time the immigrant groups of European ancestry have become the majority group, while the indigenous ethnic groups have become the subordinate group in terms of their control of the state and economy. These countries were ethnically heterogeneous from the start, consisting of many different ethnic groups, and still continue to receive new immigrant groups. Figure 1.1 presents immigration rates for several western countries, including the so-called 'immigration countries', where immigration rates are highest. Secondly, in Western-European nations immigration is of a more recent date. Four decades ago, colonial minorities arrived in Western Europe, followed by the 'guest workers' in the 1960s. By the 1980s, the new minorities were growing because

3

Introduction

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

6.33

Figure 1.1

4.55 3.34 2.5

2.46

2.27

1.29

1.15 0.31

0.17

Net migration rate (number of migrants per 1000 inhabitants) in 10 Western countries in 1995

Source: CIA World Fact Book (1995)

of the increase in refugees and asylum seekers (see Pettigrew, 1998). Table 1.1 presents the 1995 inflow of asylum seekers in countries of the European Union. We can see that large differences exist between these nations. Countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Belgium receive many asylum applications, while others such as Italy and Portugal hardly receive any. Thirdly, we will consider Eastern-European countries following the political and economic transformation of Eastern Europe. A distinction can be made between former Soviet Republics and Vassal States of the former Soviet Union. The inflow of refugees is generally low in Central and Eastern Europe. However, most of the former socialist-state countries can be characterized as complex multiethnic states, with national minority groups and additional minority groups from other titular republics, or groups without a republic (Poppe, 1998). This is illustrated in Table 1.2, which shows the ethnic composition of the most important ethnic groups in several Central and Eastern-European countries. For instance, in the states of the former Soviet Union, Russians form a large - and in some instances the largest - minority group: in Kazakhstan almost 40 per cent of the population is Russian, in Ukraine 22 per cent, and in Belarus and Moldova, over 13 per cent is Russian (see Hagendoorn, Linssen and Tumanov, 2001). Many other minority groups are also present in Central and

4

Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants

Table 1.1

Number of asylum seekers per 100,000 inhabitants in countries of the European Union in 1995 74.78 126.80 111.32 15.03 36.67 148.30 13.65 18.52 2.43 58.33 223.93 5.39 19.05 125.09 76.47

Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom Source: SOPEMI (1998) a

To correct for yearlyfluctuationsthe average has been taken of the number of asylum seekers in the years 1994, 1995 and 1996 Table 1.2

Ethnic composition in various Central and Eastern European countries in percentages of the total population

Country

National majority

Largest minority

Poland

96.0%

Nearly once a week > Once a month Less than once a month Never

c

F-value F (3, 24243) =: 92.20 ***

0.45 0.41b 0.42b 0.36a

(0.29) (0.29) (0.29) (0.29)

0.34a 0.37b 0.40e 0.44de 0.46e 0.44de 0.43edc 0.34ab 0.43d 0.42cd 0.42cd

(0.28) (0.28) (0.28) (0.30) (0.30) (0.29) (0.30) (0.27) (0.29) (0.28) (0.29)

% High score 28.4 24.3 24.7 19.8

F (10,24236) = 36.08***

b

0.43 0.42b 0.36a

(0.29) (0.29) (0.28)

0.41a 0.41a

(0.29) (0.28)

0.42ab 0.41a 0.40a 0.41a 0.40a 0.40a 0.39a 0.42ab 0.44b 0.44b 0.4 lab 0.42ab

(0.29) (0.29) (0.29) (0.29) (0.29) (0.29) (0.29) (0.30) (0.30) (0.28) (0.28) (0.28)

0.42e 0.43bc 0.40a 0.42bc 0.4 lab

(0.29) (0.31) (0.28) (0.30) (0.29)

0.39a 0.41* 0.42e 0.41b

(0.28) (0.28) (0.29) (0.30)

F (2,24244) =: 77 17 ***

17.9 19.9 23.0 29.3 30.0 27.5 27.2 17.8 26.1 24.7 24.7 25.7 25.6 19.5

F ( l , 24245)= = 3.02

24.7 24.2

F (11[,24235) = 4.82 *** 26.4 23.5 23.5 23.8 24.5 23.4 22.7 25.8 27.2 26.6 23.0 24.2 F(4, 24242) = 7.05*** 26.0 24.9 21.2 26.2 24.6 F(3,24243)= 14.20 *** 21.2 25.3 25.8 24.1

Resistance to the Presence of Immigrants and Refugees

107

Note to Table 4.2 and Table 4.3: The mean scores in the second column of both Tables are based on a five-point scale, recoded on a scale from 0 to 1, standard deviations between brackets. Different characters in superscript indicate significant differences (p < 0.05) as yielded by analysis of variance with Tukey's post hoc multiple comparisons test. In the fourth column, the percentage of respondents with high scores, that is, a score above the middle range value, is displayed. * = p < 0.05, ** = p < 0.01, *** = p < 0.001 on resistance to immigrants, they scored low on resistance to refugees. The descriptive findings with regard to differences between denominations should be regarded with some caution, since they partly reflect the differences between countries in the relative proportion of denominations within the population. Hence, in the next section, we apply multi-level modelling to take both the variation between individuals as well as the variation between countries into account. Method For a multivariate test of the individual-level and contextual-level hypotheses, we applied multi-level modelling with the software program MlwiN (Rasbash et al. 1999). A more detailed description of multi-level modelling is presented in Appendix D. For both the resistance to immigrants and the resistance to refugees, we estimated a set of successive models. We started with an empty model, only including individual-level variation (model 0). Next, we estimated a random intercept model (model 1) that also incorporates country-level variation in the intercept, which corresponds with the cross-national differences in the average level of resistance to immigrants or refugees. In the subsequent model (model 2), all independent individual characteristics were added simultaneously. Next, we entered the contextual characteristics into the multi-level model. Various successive models were estimated. Firstly, main effects of the six contextual variables were modelled. Secondly, to test for curvilinear effects of the three demographic contextual variables, quadratic terms were added to the model. Thirdly, to test whether the effects of demographic conditions on the one hand, and the economic conditions and extensiveness of the social security system on the other hand, reinforce each other, interaction effects were modelled. In Tables 4.4 and 4.5, only the final model was represented. In this model (model 3) the main effects were included, as well as those curvilinear and interaction effects which turned out to be significant. Finally, we added the mediating individual characteristics (model 4).

Findings The findings from the multi-level analyses for both the resistance to immigrants and the resistance to refugees are presented in respectively Table 4.4 and 4.5.

108 Table 4.4

Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants

Unstandardized parameter estimates from multi-level models of resistance to immigrants

Intercept

Model 1 3.909 (0.073)

Model 2 3.760 (0.075)

Model 3 4.775 (0.336)

Model 4 (0.228) 3.928

Individual characteristics (0.012) (0.001) (0.006)

-0.022 0.001 -0.115

0.059 0.154 0.208 0.183

(0.027) (0.030) (0.033) (0.031)

0.158 0.148 -0.003

(0.012) (0.001) (0.006)

-0.043 0.001 -0.031

0.059 0.155 0.208 0.183

(0.027) (0.030) (0.033) (0.031)

0.070 0.120 0.149 0.110

(0.023) (0.026) (0.029) (0.027)

(0.031) (0.034) (0.035)

0.158 0.148 -0.003

(0.031) (0.034) (0.035)

0.086 0.093 0.043

(0.027) (0.030) (0.031)

0.170 0.195 0.176

(0.030) (0.031) (0.032)

0.170 0.195 0.176

(0.030) (0.031) (0.032)

0.089 0.138 0.102

(0.026) (0.027) (0.028)

0.120 0.023 0.163 0.068

(0.021) (0.045) (0.021) (0.026)

0.122 0.014 0.164 0.068

(0.021) (0.045) (0.021) (0.026)

0.056 0.048 0.077 0.056

(0.018) (0.039) (0.018) (0.023)

-0.157 -0.141 -0.071

(0.021) (0.023) (0.016)

-0.157 -0.141 -0.070

(0.021) (0.023) (0.016)

-0.123 -0.115 -0.062

-0.020

(0.006)

-0.020

(0.006)

0.001

-0.071 -0.065 -0.027 0.205 0.246 -0.135 0.010

(0.040) (0.038) (0.013) (0.456) (0.106) (0.053) (0.004)

-0.012 0.021 -0.014 0.673 0.211 -0.079 0.006

(0.027) (0.026) (0.009) (0.308) (0.072) (0.036) (0.003)

0.627 0.011

(0.007) (0.005)

0.563

(0.005)

-0.022 0.001 -0.115

Sex (male) Age Education Social position Higher controllers (ref.) Lower controllers Routine non-manual Self-employed Supervisors, skilled manual Semi-unskilled manual Unemployed Student, vocational training Retired Housekeepers Not classifiable Religious denomination Catholic Orthodox Protestant Other No religion (ref.) Church attendance > Nearly once a week > Once a month Less than once a month Never (ref.) Family income

-

-

-

-

-

-

(0.011) (0.001) (0.006)

-

-

-

(0.018) (0.020) (0.014) (0.005)

Country characteristics Economic conditions 1994 Change economic conditions 1989-94 Social security benefits expenditure Ethnic heterogeneity 1995 Asylum seekers per 1,000 capita 1994 Change in asylum seekers 1989-94 (Change in asylum seekers 1989-94)2 Mediating Variables Perceived Ethnic threat Localistic orientation Variance components Individual-level variance in intercept % Explained variance

0.785 (0.007)

0.752 4.1%

(0.007)

0.752 4.1%

(0.007)

28.3%

Resistance to the Presence of Immigrants and Refugees

Country-level variance in intercept % Explained variance Goodness-of-flt -2* Log likelihood A -2*Log likelihood Adf p-value

Model 1 0.121 (0.036)

63008.4 2878.2 1 0.000

109

Model 2 0.112 (0.033)

Model 3 0.065 (0.019)

Model 4 0.029 (0.009)

7.0%

46.6%

75.8%

61986.5 1021.9 21 0.000

61973.8 12.7 7 0.079

54919.8 7054.0 2 0.000

Note: parameter estimates in bold figures are significant at the 5%-level (p-value < 0.05); contextual parameter estimates in bold and italicfiguresare significant at the 10% level, (p-value < 0.10) In the lower part of these tables the variance components are displayed. In a random intercept model, the total variance can be decomposed into variance at the individual level and variance at the country level. The variance between individuals within countries turned out to be much higher than the variance between countries, which is common in this kind of multi-level models. Nonetheless, the variance between countries was highly significant, thus individuals within a country were, on average, more alike than individuals from different countries. The national context therefore proved to be a relevant social context with regard to individual's stance towards immigrants and refugees. Effects of Individual Characteristics on Resistance to Immigrants and Refugees To test hypotheses on individual-level differences in the resistance to immigrants and refugees, individual characteristics were included in model 2. As seen in Tables 4.4 and 4.5, this resulted in a significant improvement of the model fit of both the model for resistance to immigrants (a decrease in the loglikelihood of 1021.9) and the model for resistance to refugees (a decrease of 813.9). It turned out that resistance to immigrants as well as refugees was relatively strongly supported by lower educated people: the lower the level of education, the stronger these exclusionist reactions. This finding corroborates hypothesis la. Next, consistent with hypothesis lb, the self-employed showed stronger resistance to immigrants and refugees than people belonging to the reference category of higher controllers. Furthermore, both skilled and unskilled manual workers referred to in hypothesis lc, as well as unemployed people, referred to in hypothesis Id, were relatively strongly in favour of resistance to immigrants. However, the semi-unskilled workers and unemployed were not significantly more in favour of resistance to refugees, but skilled manual workers were. Finally, consistently with hypothesis le, income had a negative effect: the lower the family income, the more one showed resistance to immigrants and refugees.

110 Table 4.5

Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants

Unstandardized parameter estimates from multi-level models of resistance to refugees

Intercept

Model 1 2.661 (0.098)

Model 2 (0.110) 2.549

Model 3 (0.328) 3.810

Model 4 (0.261) 3.193

0.022 -0.003 -0.158

(0.015) (0.001) (0.008)

0.022 -0.003 -0.158

(0.015) (0.001) (0.008)

0.004 -0.003 -0.085

-0.000 0.061 0.147 0.145

(0.033) (0.036) (0.041) (0.038)

0.000 0.062 0.147 0.145

(0.033) (0.036) (0.041) (0.038)

0.010 0.033 0.095 0.084

0.067 0.070 -0.102

(0.038) (0.042) (0.043)

0.067 0.071 -0.101

(0.038) (0.042) (0.043)

0.007 0.027 -0.061

(0.036) (0.039) (0.041)

0.084 0.124 0.098

(0.037) (0.038) (0.039)

0.084 0.123 0.098

(0.037) (0.038) (0.039)

0.015 0.076 0.035

(0.035) (0.036) (0.037)

0.109 -0.009 0.099 -0.027

(0.026) (0.055) (0.025) (0.032)

0.106 -0.005 0.100 -0.027

(0.026) (0.055) (0.025) (0.032)

0.047 0.025 0.023 -0.038

(0.024) (0.052) (0.024) (0.030)

Individual characteristics Sex (male) Age Education Social position Higher controllers (ref.) Lower controllers Routine non-manual Self-employed Supervisors, skilled manual Semi-unskilled manual Unemployed Student, vocational training Retired Housekeepers Not classifiable Religious denomination Catholic Orthodox Protestant Other No religion (ref.) Church attendance > Nearly once a week > Once a month Less than once a month Never (ref.) Family income

-

-0.119 -0.084 -0.005

-

-0.020

-

(0.026) (0.028) (0.019)

-0.120 -0.084 -0.005

(0.007)

-

(0.014) (0.001) (0.007) (0.031) (0.034) (0.038) (0.036)

(0.026) (0.028) (0.019)

-0.094 -0.064 0.001

-0.020

(0.007)

-0.003

(0.007)

-0.057 -0.030 -0.048 1.544 -0.779 -0.013 0.542 '0.057

(0.043) (0.044) (0.015) (0.464) (0.233) (0.017) (0.190) (0.033)

-0.015 0.059 -0.047 1.928 -0.583 0.000 0.542 -0.069

(0.034) (0.035) (0.012) (0.368) (0.185) (0.014) (0.151) (0.026)

0.526 0.028

(0.009) (0.007)

0.991

(0.009)

-

-

(0.024) (0.026) (0.018)

Country characteristics Economic conditions 1994 Change economic conditions 1989-1994 Social security benefits expenditure Ethnic heterogeneity 1995 Asylum seekers per 1,000