Landscape Dynamics of Drylands across Greater Central Asia: People, Societies and Ecosystems (Landscape Series, 17) 3030307417, 9783030307417

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Landscape Series

Garik Gutman Jiquan Chen Geoffrey M. Henebry Martin Kappas   Editors

Landscape Dynamics of Drylands across Greater Central Asia: People, Societies and Ecosystems

Landscape Series Volume 17

Series editors Jiquan Chen, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, USA Janet Silbernagel, Department of Planning and Landscape Architecture, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA

Aims and Scope Springer’s innovative Landscape Series is committed to publishing high-quality manuscripts that approach the concept of landscape from a broad range of perspectives. Encouraging contributions on theory development, as well as more applied studies, the series attracts outstanding research from the natural and social sciences, and from the humanities and the arts. It also provides a leading forum for publications from interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary teams. Drawing on, and synthesising, this integrative approach the Springer Landscape Series aims to add new and innovative insights into the multidimensional nature of landscapes. Landscapes provide homes and livelihoods to diverse peoples; they house historic—and prehistoric—artefacts; and they comprise complex physical, chemical and biological systems. They are also shaped and governed by human societies who base their existence on the use of the natural resources; people enjoy the aesthetic qualities and recreational facilities of landscapes, and people design new landscapes. As interested in identifying best practice as it is in progressing landscape theory, the Landscape Series particularly welcomes problem-solving approaches and contributions to landscape management and planning. The ultimate goal is to facilitate both the application of landscape research to practice, and the feedback from practice into research. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6211

Garik Gutman  •  Jiquan Chen Geoffrey M. Henebry  •  Martin Kappas Editors

Landscape Dynamics of Drylands across Greater Central Asia: People, Societies and Ecosystems

Editors Garik Gutman Land-Cover/Land-Use Change Program NASA Headquarters Washington, DC, USA Geoffrey M. Henebry Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations Michigan State University East Lansing, MI, USA

Jiquan Chen Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations Michigan State University East Lansing, MI, USA Martin Kappas Cartography, GIS & Remote Sensing Department, Institute of Geography Georg-August University Goettingen, Germany

ISSN 1572-7742     ISSN 1875-1210 (electronic) Landscape Series ISBN 978-3-030-30741-7    ISBN 978-3-030-30742-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30742-4 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Preface

Political and economic transformations, increasing populations, globalization, and climatic changes in the drylands of Greater Central Asia, which have been occurring over the past decades, have greatly affected the people, societies, and ecosystems of the region. Central Asia has experienced many drastic changes in land use from the Virgin Lands Campaign in mid-1950s to the abandonment of agricultural fields after the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 to their recultivation in more recent years. These and other changes over Greater Central Asia affected the environment and societies of the region, where water use by humans and water availability for crops, livestock, and other human uses have been the primary drivers of environmental changes. The most well-known (and analyzed) example in the region is the decades-long desiccation of the Aral Sea resulting from the diversion of two rivers for crop irrigation, specifically to increase cotton yields and combat soil salinization. Satellite observations that have accumulated during the last five decades provide a rich time series of the dynamic land surface, enabling systematic analysis of changes in land cover and land use from space. In the case of Aral Sea, Landsat satellite observations have allowed the continuous monitoring of its dynamics at spatial resolutions of tens of meters since early 1970s. The breakup of the Soviet Union had huge impact on the structure of the society, local and regional economies, and the way people use the land. In some countries, state-owned and collectivized farms were transitioned to privately owned fields and enterprises. Some arable lands were abandoned, others idled or continued with cultivation; there were substantial changes in what was being produced and to whom it was being marketed. Space observations of nightlights, for example, have revealed that many cities and towns experienced significant shifts in population—both increasing and decreasing depending on country and region. During the economic boom in China that followed its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, the northwest drylands have experienced strong rural-to-urban migration, along with a dramatic expansion of urban infrastructure, while populations more than tripled.

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Preface

This book describes and analyzes various patterns, processes, and consequences to the population and landscapes of the Greater Central Asia region.  It is a ­compilation of results from studies on land-cover and land-use changes and their interactions with carbon, water and energy cycles, landscape dynamics, the role of institutional changes, as well as the consequences of global changes. The book is a truly interdisciplinary collaborative effort by an international team consisting of scholars from the USA, Europe, Central Asia, and elsewhere, under the auspices of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) supported primarily by the NASA Land-Cover/Land-Use Change Program. It is of interest and directed to a broad range of scientists within natural and social sciences, those involved in studying recent and ongoing changes in drylands, be they senior scientists, early career scientists, or students. These studies provide the analysis of the dramatic changes in land uses triggered by an abrupt change in the economies of the region and land management. Lessons learned from these studies are additional evidence for the sustainability development of the drylands. The satellite data used for these studies were mostly from NASA and ESA optical sensors with coarse (~5 km to 250 m) and medium (100 m to 10 m) spatial resolutions. In the context of the forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the IPCC Special report on Climate Change and Land published in 2019 provides a broad overview of the situation of Greater Central Asia. In particular, the present book can help answer questions on the perception of risks and benefits of climate change, adaptation and mitigation options, and societal responses, including sociological aspects. We warmly thank all the contributors of this book and acknowledge NASA’s support. We also appreciate several colleagues for their constructive peer review of the drafts of the chapters. We thank Connor Crank for creating the webpage to facilitate communication among the authors and Kaylee Peterson for checking the format of all the chapters. Washington, DC, USA January 2019

Garik Gutman

Contents

1 Multiple Perspectives on Drylands Across Greater Central Asia��������    1 Geoffrey M. Henebry, Jiquan Chen, Garik Gutman, and Martin Kappas 2 Dry Land Belt of Northern Eurasia: Contemporary Environmental Changes������������������������������������������������   11 Pavel Ya. Groisman, Olga N. Bulygina, Geoffrey M. Henebry, Nina A. Speranskaya, Alexander I. Shiklomanov, Yizhao Chen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Natalia D. Tilinina, Olga G. Zolina, Ambroise Dufour, Jiquan Chen, Ranjeet John, and Peilei Fan 3 Recent Land Surface Dynamics Across Drylands in Greater Central Asia ��������������������������������������������������������������������������   25 Geoffrey M. Henebry, Kirsten M. de Beurs, Ranjeet John, Braden C. Owsley, Jahan Kariyeva, Akylbek Chymyrov, and Mirasil Mirzoev 4 Quantifying the Anthropogenic Signature in Drylands of Central Asia and Its Impact on Water Scarcity and Dust Emissions����������������������������������������������������������������������������������   49 Irina N. Sokolik, Alexander I. Shiklomanov, Xin Xi, Kirsten M. de Beurs, and Viatcheslav V. Tatarskii 5 The Complexity and Challenges of Central Asia’s Water-Energy-Food Systems������������������������������������������������������������������   71 Jiaguo Qi, Steven Pueppke, Rashid Kulmatov, Temirbek Bobushev, Shiqi Tao, Tlektes I. Yespolov, Marat Beksultanov, and Xi Chen 6 Assessment of the Influences of Dust Storms on Cotton Production in Tajikistan��������������������������������������������������������   87 Sabur F. Abdullaev and Irina N. Sokolik

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7 Population and Urban Dynamics in Drylands of China����������������������  107 Peilei Fan, Zutao Ouyang, Jiquan Chen, Joseph Messina, Nathan Moore, and Jiaguo Qi 8 Hydrology and Erosion Risk Parameters for Grasslands in Central Asia������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  125 Kenneth E. Spaeth, Mark A. Weltz, D. Phillip Guertin, Jiaguo Qi, Geoffrey M. Henebry, Jason Nesbit, Tlektes I. Yespolov, and Marat Beksultanov 9 A Conceptual Framework for Ecosystem Stewardship Based on Landscape Dynamics: Case Studies from Kazakhstan and Mongolia ������������������������������������������������������������  143 Martin Kappas, Jan Degener, Michael Klinge, Irina Vitkovskaya, and Madina Batyrbayeva 10 Social-Ecological Systems Across the Asian Drylands Belt (ADB)��������������������������������������������������������������  191 Jiquan Chen, Zutao Ouyang, Ranjeet John, Geoffrey M. Henebry, Pavel Ya. Groisman, Arnon Karnieli, Steven Pueppke, Maira Kussainova, Amarjargal Amartuvshin, Askarbek Tulobaev, Tlektes I. Yespolov, Connor Crank, Ameen Kadhim, Jiaguo Qi, and Garik Gutman Index������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  227

About the Editors

Dr.  Garik  Gutman is a Program Manager for the NASA Land-Cover/Land-Use Change (LCLUC) Program. He received his PhD in Climate Modeling in 1984. He was a National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and then worked there for 14  years as a Research Scientist. His research focused on remote sensing of the Earth’s land surface and atmosphere from space. In 1996, for developing an original technique using satellite data for reliable analyses of the Earth’s vegetation cover and its long-term variations, he received the US Department of Commerce Bronze Medal Award. During the last two decades, he has been leading the LCLUC program at NASA headquarters as well as Landsat-related activities. He is author of over 80 publications  in peer-reviewed scientific journals and of several chapters in various climate- and land-cover related scientific volumes. He has been a chief editor or co-editor in several volumes on LCLUCenvironment interactions including those for the Eurasian Arctic, in Siberia, and in Eastern Europe published by Springer.  

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About the Editors

Dr.  Jiquan  Chen received his PhD in Ecosystem Analysis from the University of Washington and is currently a Professor at Michigan State University. He was a Bullard Fellow at Harvard University and on the faculty at Michigan Tech University and University of Toledo. He is broadly interested in ecosystem analysis, landscape ecology, conservation biology, biophysics, global change, land use, urban studies, and the sustainability of socioeconomic-ecological systems. He has conducted research on edge effects in fragmented landscapes, 3D canopy of forests, ecosystem carbon/water/energy fluxes, riparian zone management, agricultural and bioenergy crops, grassland (rangeland) ecology, dynamics of urban systems, and the role of institution in shaping landscapes and regions under the changing globe. He is a Fellow of the Ecological Society of America and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and serves as the Editor in Chief for Ecological Processes and the book series Landscape Studies by Springer.  

Dr. Geoffrey M. Henebry received his MS and PhD degrees in Environmental Sciences from The University of Texas at Dallas. He is a Full Professor in the Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences at Michigan State University. He was a Senior Fulbright Research Fellow at Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) in Brazil and served on the faculties at Kansas State University, Rutgers University-Newark, University of NebraskaLincoln, and South Dakota State University. His research interests are broad and involve the use of remote sensing and geospatial technologies to study environmental patterns and processes, including quantitative analysis and modeling of land surface phenology and land-cover/land-use change. He is active in the American Geophysical Union and the North American Regional Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology. He also serves as an Associate Editor for Remote Sensing of Environment and on the editorial boards of Landscape Ecology and International Journal of Biometeorology.  

About the Editors

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Dr.  Martin  Kappas is a University Professor of Geography and the Head of the Cartography, GIS, and Remote Sensing Section of the Georg-August University of Göttingen, Germany. His remote-sensing laboratory is a full member of EARSeL (European Association of Remote Sensing Laboratories). He is an active Member of DesertNET International (Competence Network for Research to Combat Desertification). His research interests are broad and include topics such as landscape evaluation using techniques of geoinformatics and ground truth data collection. His main research theme is the use of remote sensing and GIS to study land-cover/land-use changes. He is currently working on diverse interdisciplinary projects in Central Asia, Africa, Vietnam, and Europe. He is a Reviewer for the German Science Community (DFG) and the German Humboldt Foundation. Martin also serves actively inside various societies such as the German Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing and the German International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). He currently serves on the editorial board of Ecological Processes.  

Acronyms

%LCT Percentage of Land Cover Type NELDA Northern Eurasia Land Dynamics Analysis ADB Asian Drylands Belt AQI Air Quality Indicator AR4 Fourth Assessment Report AR5 Fifth Assessment Report ARS Agricultural Research Service AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer BCE Before Common Era BRDF Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function BRI Belt and Road Initiative CA Central Asia CAC Central Asia Core CARIN Central Asia Regional Information Network CE Common Era CLIGN Climate Stochastic Weather Generator CMG Climate Modeling Grid CNH Coupled Natural and Human Systems CNVM Cropland-Natural Vegetation Mosaic Carbon Dioxide CO2 DEA Drylands of East Asia DLB Dry Land Belt DLC Dominant Land Cover DTR Diurnal Temperature Range EA East Asia ECONSYS Economic Systems ECOSYS Ecological Systems EPI Environmental Performance Index ERA Meteorological Reananalysis Data ET Evapotranspiration

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FAO FPAR

Acronyms

Food and Agriculture Organization Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (400–700 nm) Absorbed by Green Vegetation GCA Greater Central Asia GDP Gross Domestic Product GDPPC Gross Domestic Product per Capita GHSL Global Human Settlement Layer GLOBC Climate Modelling and Global Change GOFC-GOLD Global Observation for Forest and Land Cover Dynamics GPP Gross Primary Production HDI Human Development Index IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IVCI Integral Vegetation Conditions Index IVI Integrated Vegetation Indices KBG Kara-Bogaz Gol LAI Leaf Area Index LCC Land Cover Change LCLUC Land-Cover and Land-Use Change LE Life Expectancy LSK Livestock LSKD Livestock Density LSKPC Livestock per Capita LST Land Surface Temperature Land Surface Temperature Day LSTday Land Surface Temperature Night LSTnight LUH Land Use Harmonization LUI Land Use Index MAP Mean Annual Precipitation MAT Mean Annual Temperature ME Middle East MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NBAR Nadir BRDF Adjusted Reflectance NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NEP Net Ecosystem Production NLCD National Land Cover Dataset NPP Net Primary Production NRCS Natural Resource Conservation Service NRI National Resource Inventory OED Oxford English Dictionary POP Human Population Size POPD Population Density REF S1 Reference State RGB Red, Green, Blue RHEM Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model

Acronyms

SAVI SCERIN SD SES SOCSYS SPOT-VGT STM T TC UN UNCCD USGS USSR VCI WBM WRF WTO

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Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index South-Central East European Regional Information Network Standard Deviation Social-Ecological Systems or Social-Environmental Systems Social Systems SPOT VEGETATION State-and-Transition Models Soil loss Tolerance Rate Tasseled Cap United Nations United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification US Geological Survey Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Vegetation Condition Index Water Balance Model Weather Research and Forecasting World Trade Organization

Chapter 1

Multiple Perspectives on Drylands Across Greater Central Asia Geoffrey M. Henebry, Jiquan Chen, Garik Gutman, and Martin Kappas

More than a quarter of the planet’s inhabitants live in drylands or above 2100 m above mean sea level. Yet, anthropogenic land dynamics in both mountain and arid landscapes have been understudied, despite the myriad global and regional changes occurring in recent decades, as well as their sensitivity and vulnerability to the changes. This volume of essays provides multiple complementary perspectives about how environmental change manifests in the drylands of Greater Central Asia. This belt of drylands (Lioubimtseva 2002; Groisman et al. 2018) includes several high mountain ranges (Azykova 2002; Merzlyakova 2002) that harvest water vapor from the atmosphere, bringing runoff, spring flow, and meltwaters from glaciers and seasonal snow melting water into the drylands through rivers that terminate in the big lakes of the region’s several endorheic basins (Koronkevich 2002; Bai et al. 2011). Where are these drylands? In this volume, there are multiple perspectives on this question from climatological, ecological, and geopolitical viewpoints. The core area, however, includes the five republics of Soviet Central Asia that emerged as nations in 1991 (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan)

G. M. Henebry (*) · J. Chen Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences,, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] G. Gutman Land-Cover/Land-Use Change Program, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, USA e-mail: [email protected] M. Kappas Cartography, GIS & Remote Sensing Department, Institute of Geography, Georg-August University, Goettingen, Germany e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 G. Gutman et al. (eds.), Landscape Dynamics of Drylands across Greater Central Asia: People, Societies and Ecosystems, Landscape Series 17, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30742-4_1

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Fig. 1.1  False-color composite of the standard deviations of MODIS Tasseled Cap (TC) components from the NBAR product time series from 2001 through 2016. Orange outlines the 22 political entities of the Eurasian drylands. Red, green, blue displays the standard deviations of TC wetness, greenness, and brightness, respectively. Bodies of open water appear black

and seven arid administrative units of China (Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shanxi, Tibet, and Xinjiang), and the nation of Mongolia constitute the drylands of East Asia. Together the Central Asia Core (CAC) and the Drylands of East Asia (DEA) spans some 74° of longitude. However, the drylands used in this volume can be extended, as in Chaps. 3 (Henebry et  al. 2020) and 10 (Chen et al. 2020) to countries of the eastern Mediterranean to reach over a quarter of the way around the planet. Figure 1.1 portrays the drylands of Greater Central Asia and surrounding geographic context through the superposition of three interrelated spectral dimensions of a long time series of the NASA MODIS NBAR (Nadir-­ BRDF (Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function Adjusted Reflectance) product (MCD43C4, V006). Red, green, and blue display the standard deviations of the wetness, greenness, and brightness components of the MODIS Tasseled Cap transform (Lobser and Cohen 2007; de Beurs et al. 2015, 2016) of composites of the NBAR product from 2001 to 2016. Lighter (darker) hues indicate higher (lower) temporal variation in each component. The very dark regions along the southern drylands belt (especially, western Afghanistan and Pakistan, eastern Iran, and most of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Israel) indicate very low temporal variation in the TC components. In contrast, the mountainous areas embedded across the drylands show higher temporal variation, as do the steppes of northern Kazakhstan, China, and Mongolia where snow cover drives both strong seasonality in brightness and early season moisture to grow both grains and grasses. There are two co-dominant land cover types across the drylands in Greater Central Asia (GCA): grasslands and barren lands. According to the NASA MODIS land cover product (MCD12C1, V006) (Table 1.1), these two types account for ~84% of the total area composed by the political entities identified in Chap. 10 (Chen et  al. 2020) as composing the drylands of GCA.  Croplands are