Harry E. Schwarz and the Development of Water Resources and Environmental Planning: Planning Methods in an Era of Challenge and Change [1 ed.] 9780160941665, 9780984590803

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Planning Methods in an Era of Challenge and Change

Harry E. Schwarz and the Development of Water Resources and Environmental Planning Edited with an introduction and commentary by David C. Major IWR Maass-White Series

Arthur Maass, Gilbert F. White, and Institute for Water Resources Director Robert A. Pietrowsky at the dedication of the Maass-White Library and Reference Room, April 6, 2001.

Harry E. Schwarz and the Development of Water Resources and Environmental Planning Planning Methods in an Era of Challenge and Change

Edited with an introduction and commentary by

David C. Major

THE MAASS-WHITE LIBRARY SERIES IN WATER PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

© 2010 David C. Major. Copyright is claimed in Chapters 1, 2, 10 and the Introductions to Chapters 3-9. Other copyrighted materials are used with permission, as described in the Acknowledgments. No copyrighted part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording or otherwise without prior written permission of the publisher. Published by

IWR Press Casey Building 7701 Telegraph Road Alexandria, VA 22315

Library of Congress Catalog Number TC423 .H37 2010 x, 442 p. : ill. ; 24 cm. Includes bibliographies and index. 1. Schwarz, Harry E.—Interviews. 2. Schwarz, Harry E. 3. Water resources development—United States—History. 4. Water-supply—United States—Planning—History. I. Major, David C. Library of Congress Control Number 2009942012 ISBN-10 0-9845908-0-3 ISBN-13 978-0-9845908-0-3

Printed and bound by the U.S. Government Printing Office Interior design by Bernadette Evangelist

CONTENTS

THE MAASS-WHITE LIBRARY SERIES IN WATER PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT ..iii FOREWORD ................................................................................................................v PREFACE ..................................................................................................................vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS................................................................................................ix CHAPTER 1 Introduction: The purpose and plan of the volume ..............................1 CHAPTER 2 Harry E. Schwarz: Personal biography ................................................5 CHAPTER 3 The engineering background: Water planning, hydrology, computers, and the Corps of Engineers from WWII to 1960 ..........................................................................................13 Introduction........................................................................................................13 Destruction and Protection of Dams and Levees ..............................................17 Determination of Flood Frequencies in a Major Drainage Basin ....................23 CHAPTER 4 The development of planning methods: The Potomac Study, the Susquehanna, and the Harvard Water Program................................43 Introduction........................................................................................................43 Comprehensive, Multiple Purpose Water Resources Development ................53 Environmental Considerations in Potomac River Planning..............................61 The Potomac River Basin Study: Planning Objectives ....................................75 Susquehanna River Basin Study Plan: A Review of Alternatives ....................79 CHAPTER 5 New planning methods: The North Atlantic Regional (NAR) Study ..89 Introduction........................................................................................................89 NAR Planning: An Overview............................................................................95 Multiobjectives: Visual and Cultural ..............................................................107 Water Resources Systems Symposium: Introduction......................................129 The NAR Study: A Case Study in System Analysis ......................................131 Model for Estimating Regional Water Needs..................................................139 North Atlantic Regional Supply Model ..........................................................149 Impact of Systems Techniques on the Planning Process ................................161 i

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

CHAPTER 6 The Northeastern United States Water Supply Study ....................167 Introduction ..................................................................................................167 Scope of the NEWS Study ............................................................................171 Northeastern United States Water Supply Study, Washington Metropolitan Area Water Supply Study Report ........................177 Northeastern United States Water Supply Study, NEWS Summary Report: Appendix, Part 1, Hudson River Project, Main Report......................................................................................187 CHAPTER 7 Reflections on water and environmental planning..........................203 Introduction....................................................................................................203 Water Resources Planning—Its Recent Evolution ........................................205 Response: Effects of Urbanization on Streams ............................................221 The North Atlantic Regional Study ..............................................................223 On the Origins of Innovative Planning..........................................................231 CHAPTER 8 New challenges: Water quality, climate change and water supply, and groundwater contamination ..............................................235 Introduction....................................................................................................235 An Evaluation of the Corps of Engineers Pilot Wastewater Studies Program—Perspectives on the Future of Water Quality ..............................237 Climatic Change and Water Supply: How Sensitive Is the Northeast? ........255 Bedford, Massachusetts, Case Study ............................................................273 The Impact [of Global Warming] on Water Supplies....................................287 CHAPTER 9 The university and overseas ............................................................293 Introduction....................................................................................................293 Environmental Affairs Program Clark University ........................................299 Interview with Professor Emeritus Harry E. Schwarz ..................................305 African River Basin Planning........................................................................307 If I Had Had a GIS ........................................................................................325 CHAPTER 10 Overview and perspectives: Harry E. Schwarz and the development of water resources and environmental planning ......................333 APPENDIX 1 Personal Chronology ......................................................................339 APPENDIX 2 Bibliography ..................................................................................343 APPENDIX 3 List of Personal Memoirs and Reminiscences ..............................349 APPENDIX 4 Engineer Profile: Interview with Harry E. Schwarz ......................351 APPENDIX 5 Biographical Sketches: Arthur Maass and Gilbert F. White ........433 INDEX ..................................................................................................................439 ii

The Maass-White Library Series in Water Planning and Management Robert A. Pietrowsky, Director, Institute for Water Resources

It is fitting that this volume of Harry E. Schwarz’s contributions to water resources and environmental planning is published as part of the MaassWhite Library Series in Water Planning and Management. This new series is devoted to research and development that reflects the broad influence of Arthur Maass and Gilbert White on U.S. and international water resources management. Schwarz, a longtime colleague and friend of both men, was the first practitioner in a major Federal agency, and indeed in the international community, to adopt and implement many of the ideas and methods developed by Maass and White. This volume makes available a substantial selection of Schwarz’s innovative work, and traces his influence on the practice of modern water resources planning and management in the Corps of Engineers. The Corps’ Institute for Water Resources (IWR) was most fortunate to have both Arthur Maass and Gilbert White at the commemoration of the Maass-White Library at IWR. The true measure of the contributions of Arthur Maass and Gilbert White is that their influence reached far outside their classrooms. The intellectual foundation provided by Professors Maass and White and other twentieth- century scholars proved essential to the maturation of the practice of planning and managing water resources. The concepts first advanced by these academicians, to their credit, have gradually been adopted and applied by several generations of water resources practitioners and decision-makers over the last half-century. One benefit of this interaction was their profound influence on the way the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers makes water management decisions. This is a great tribute both to the legacy of these two scholars and to the leadership of the Corps. However, in this new century, with a new set of water resources challenges both domestically and around the world, it also serves as a reminder that the need for continued scholarship in water resources practice remains as compelling as ever—it is critically important to the future of U.S. water resources and to the future of the Corps itself. iii

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Facilitating a continuing intersection of scholarship and practice within the Corps’ Civil Works mission remains the essence of the Institute’s purpose. In coming years the Series will present studies and research done under the aegis of the Maass-White Library, especially work of the participants in the Maass-White Scholars Program, as well as wider-ranging studies in the broad tradition of Arthur Maass and Gilbert White. Those associated with this publication learned with great regret of the deaths of both Arthur Maass and Gilbert White, friends and mentors, during the preparation of the volume; one of White’s final writings appears as the Foreword. It is altogether appropriate that this book, depicting the lifework of Harry Schwarz, a close colleague and disciple of Maass and White, is dedicated to their memory.

iv

Foreword

Gilbert F. White*

This volume reflects the admirable accomplishments and career of a distinguished civil servant and water planner, Harry E. Schwarz. Like many people in water resources, I knew Schwarz well for much of his career, and remember with pleasure the full range of conversations, debates, and inquiries that were part of a friendship with him. In the course of working with Schwarz, I came to recognize his effective and innovative role in dealing with water resources problems; for me, reading this volume in draft reinforced the scope of his accomplishments. I would stress two things about Schwarz’s career. First, he had a unique role in enlisting a wide range of experts from outside his own agency in government efforts, as in the North Atlantic Regional Study (NAR), for which I served on the Board of Consultants. Second, he carried his experience into academia after retirement, so as to influence a whole new crop of workers in water and environmental planning. Schwarz’s contributions are a source of encouragement for government scientists and academic administrators. In thinking about the broader values of Schwarz’s thoughtful career as planner, engineer, and scientist, it is my hope that this volume will serve as an inspiration for a new generation, illustrating as it does how much a single talented and energetic individual can accomplish.

*Dr. Gilbert F. White (1911-2006), the eminent geographer, received many honors during a long and illustrious career, including the National Medal of Science in 2000. A biographical sketch is on pp. 437-8. v

Preface

Eugene Z. Stakhiv

Every generation has people like Maass, White, and Schwarz at the vanguard of “paradigm shifts.” During the last third of the twentieth century there was a series of connected, fast-moving changes in water and environmental planning, a transition from the previous period of water development to an era of enlightened management. These included: multiobjective water resources planning in the 1960s; the environmental movement of the 1970s; emphasis on water quality and demand management in the 1980s; and finally the era of sustainable development and integrated water resources management in the 1990s through today. The ideas and actions of Maass, White, and Schwarz anticipated and helped to bring about many of these changes. To take a leading example, in the North Atlantic Regional Study (for which Maass and White served on the Board of Consultants along with Abel Wolman and other distinguished leaders), Schwarz demonstrated the workability of new methods, including multiobjectives, computer modeling, environmental assessments, nonstructural measures, public participation, and new institutional approaches. The success of this study influenced the subsequent development of the “Principles and Standards,” the U.S. Water Resources Council guidelines (1973) for Federal water resources planners, and continues to influence water planning today. Schwarz, in an era of challenge and change, was devoted to showing how academic ideas could be implemented within the context of fairly inflexible agency procedures and rigid conventional engineering practices. He began this work even before the agencies and the Water Resources Council itself had vetted or endorsed any of the ideas and analytical tools that interested him. Translating innovative ideas into actions requires an unusual individual—intellectually inquisitive, bureaucratically astute, and courageous—who is willing to take career-ending risks to promote new approaches. Harry Schwarz was such an individual, a unique combination vii

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

of intellectual, practitioner, mentor and visionary. This volume is organized chronologically, to show the interplay between the historical evolution of water management ideas and Schwarz’s personal response and transformation at the leading edge of profound changes during a dynamic era. Many of us were fortunate to have worked with and learned from Harry Schwarz, and with this volume we hope to extend his influence to a new generation of planners and researchers.

viii

Acknowledgments David C. Major

This volume owes much to many people: Germaine Hofbauer, Aida Ibisevic, Arlene J. Nurthen, Robert A. Pietrowski, Cecelia Robbins, Eugene Z. Stakhiv, and Joshua Tsang, of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources; Martin Reuss of the Corps’ Office of History; Harry Schwarz’s daughter Susan Schwarz; Bernadette Evangelist; Richard Ford, Octavia Taylor, Barbara Thomas-Slayter, and other colleagues from Clark University; and Schwarz’s many friends and colleagues who shared their recollections, often in the form of written memoirs, including Leo R. Beard, Henry P. Caulfield, John E. Frost, Jr., Lt. Gen. R. H. Groves, USA (Ret.), Lt. Gen. E. R. Heiberg III, USA (Ret.), Maj. Gen. Francis P. Koisch, USA (Ret.), Daniel P. Loucks, Arthur Maass, Kenneth Murdock, Bonnie J. Ram, Peter Rogers, Kyle Schilling, and Gilbert F. White. In addition, the editor is grateful for permission to reprint material in books and articles by Harry Schwarz and his colleagues, as follows:

American Geophysical Union, for permission to reprint: Harry E. Schwarz, “Water Resources Systems Symposium: Introduction,” Water Resources Research 8:3 (June 1972) 750; Harry E. Schwarz, “The NAR Study: A Case Study in Systems Analysis,” Water Resources Research 8:3 (June 1972) 751–754; John C. Schaake, Jr. and David C. Major, “A Model for Estimating Regional Water Needs,” Water Resources Research 8:3 (June 1972) 755–759; Russell J. Delucia and Peter Rogers, “North Atlantic Regional Supply Model,” Water Resources Research 8:3 (June 1972) 760765; and David C. Major, “The Impact of Systems Techniques on the Planning Process,” Water Resources Research 8:3 (June 1972) 766–768.

American Society of Civil Engineers, for permission to reprint: Harry E. Schwarz, “Water Resources Planning—Its Recent Evolution,” Journal of the Water Resources Planning and Management Division, 105:WR1 (March 1979) 29–38. ix

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

American Water Resources Association, for permission to reprint excerpts from: David C. Major, Kyle Schilling, and Eugene Z. Stakhiv, “In Memoriam: Harry E. Schwarz,” Hydata 16:6, November 1997, 10–11.

International Water Resources Association, for permission to reprint: Harry E. Schwarz and David C. Major, “On the Origins of Innovative Planning,” (Letter), Water International 18:1 (March 1993), 71–72.

International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, for permission to reprint: H. E. Schwarz, “Determination of Flood Frequencies in a Major Drainage Basin,” International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), Comptes Rendus et Rapports—Assemblée Générale de Toronto, 1957 (Gentbrugge, 1958), Tome III, 174–187. Kluwer Academic Publishers, for permission to reprint: David C. Major and Harry E. Schwarz, Large-Scale Regional Water Resources Planning: The North Atlantic Regional Study (Dordrecht, Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Water Science and Technology Library, Volume 7, l990, Figures 1-1 and 3-2, and Chapters 2, 4, and 10. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, for permission to reprint: Harry E. Schwarz and Lee A. Dillard, “The Impact [of Global Warming] on Water Supplies,” Oceanus, Summer 1989, pp. 44–5.

Photographs The Family of Harry E. Schwarz, for permission to use the photographs on pp. 9 and 10. Clark University Department of International Development, Community, and Environment for permission to use the photographs on pp. 296 and 297. Photographs on pp. 14, 91, and 92 are from the Harry Schwarz papers, Research Collections, Office of History, Headquarters, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Belvoir, Alexandria, Virginia.

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Harry E. Schwarz and the Development of Water Resources and Environmental Planning

CHAPTER 1

Introduction: The purpose and plan of the volume Our organization and the engineering profession have lost valuable information through our failure to record and publish the remembrances of leading military and civilian members of the Corps. —LT. GEN. J. W. MORRIS

This is a volume on the development of water resources and environmental planning seen through the career of an exceptional public servant. The aims of this volume are twofold: to provide a narrative, through the work of Harry E. Schwarz, of the development of water and environmental planning; and, perhaps more important, to illuminate how a single active individual in government service can have a substantial impact on transforming principles into accepted planning practice. Schwarz was a planner of unusual skills (a distinguished observer has referred to him as one of the two most outstanding civilian planners in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers water resources program); but the type of advances that he made can be successfully attempted by many others. It is hoped that his work will encourage young planners to be forward-looking, enthusiastic, and persistent in moving their science ahead. In this book, each chapter covers a key period in Schwarz’s contributions to water and environmental planning, from his first work with the Corps of Engineers after World War II through his service as a university professor. Each chapter has an introduction, which is followed by articles and reports by Schwarz, his colleagues, and the planning groups that he led that illustrate key problems, opportunities and solutions in water resources and environmental planning. The readings in each chapter have been chosen from among many available papers and reports to provide a picture of Schwarz’s contributions and his methods of advancing planning techniques. Schwarz’s engagement with the scientific world from the early part of his career encouraged him to publish his work, both in official reports and in professional papers, and thus a larger proportion of his work is available than is the case for many other distinguished civil servants. This volume 1

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

thus represents in part not only Schwarz’s work, but the work of many planners who did not have his opportunities for publication. Chapter 2 provides a biographical summary of Schwarz’s life and career; Chapters 3–6 deal with his principal contributions to water and environmental planning, from his early work in hydrology through the Potomac, Susquehanna, North Atlantic Regional (NAR) and Northeast Water Supply (NEWS) studies; Chapter 7 includes reflections by Schwarz on water and environmental planning; and Chapter 8 includes papers reflecting his constant search for new approaches to new problems. Chapter 9 deals with his university and overseas work, and Chapter 10 attempts a summary of Schwarz’s life and work. Appendices 1 and 2, Personal Chronology and Bibliography, are the documents that Schwarz himself prepared and used professionally. Appendix 3 lists all of Schwarz’s personal memoirs and reminiscences that could be located in Corps and other archives. Appendix 4, the oral history interview with Schwarz conducted by Martin Reuss, was prepared for publication in this volume by the editor and Dr. Reuss. Appendix 5 includes biographical sketches of Arthur Maass and Gilbert White. The sources of the volume are the extensive Schwarz files and collections of water planning documents at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Office of History and Institute for Water Resources, in Alexandria, Virginia; papers at Clark University in Worcester, Massachusetts; the editor’s own holdings from his more than a third of a century of collaboration with Schwarz; and the files of other friends and colleagues of Schwarz, especially a series of remembrances and perspectives that were contributed by those whose names are given in the acknowledgments. A description of the standards and procedures used to edit the papers included in this volume is in order. The papers are reprinted in this volume in generally uniform format, except that some figures and tables are reproduced from the originals, scanned and in some cases retouched. In a few cases, distinctively formatted headings have been kept. No editing of the papers themselves has been done, except for minor corrections of spelling errors, some identifications of people and events, and a few instances of grammatical and orthographical correction to ensure clarity. No changes have been made to correct for errors of fact or analysis. In Schwarz’s original papers, his sometimes idiosyncratic use of English, instantly recognizable by his colleagues, students, and friends, has been left unchanged. 2

INTRODUCTION

In sum, only the minimum editing required to make the papers as accessible as possible has been done. Commentary, for which the editor is responsible, includes the biographical material in Chapter 2, the introductions to Chapters 3–9, and the summary of Schwarz’s career in Chapter 10. The pagination of the papers reproduced here is that of this volume, rather than of the original papers. However, the full bibliographical reference to the original is given in every case, so that a reference to a paper here can include the full citation, plus the phrase, “as reproduced in Harry E. Schwarz and the Development of Water Resources and Environmental Planning: Planning Methods in an Era of Challenge and Change, edited with an Introduction and Commentary by David C. Major (Alexandria VA: IWR Press, Maass-White Library Series in Water Planning and Management, 2010), pp. . . .”

3

Chapter 2

Harry E. Schwarz: Personal biography

Schwarz is remembered by a legion of colleagues, younger planners, and students whose lives and careers he helped to shape with insight, gentleness, and good humor. —DAVID C. MAJOR, KYLE SCHILLING, AND EUGENE Z. STAKHIV.

Harry E. Schwarz was born on December 1, 1918, in Vienna, the son of Grete and Sandor Schwarz. Schwarz liked to say, with his quiet smile full of both the hope and the tragedy of Central Europe, that he was born under the newly-created Austrian Republic, rather than under the Kaiser, the Austro-Hungarian Empire having collapsed at the conclusion of World War I. He grew up in Vienna, and attended the Technische Hochschule Wien (the Technical University, Vienna) in 1936–38 for Civil Engineering. His father had lived in the United States and become an American citizen; Schwarz took Austrian citizenship in order to obtain free tuition at his gymnasium (high school) in Vienna. After the union of Austria and Germany in 1938 Schwarz was excluded from the Technische Hochschule as a Jew. Avoiding the roundups then in effect, he was able to obtain an exit visa and escape to the United States. He succeeded in bringing his mother out the following year; his father died in the concentration camp in Theresienstadt, in what is now the Czech Republic. Schwarz worked for several years at jobs in the Washington, D.C. area and then was drafted into the Army in June 1941. He served on active duty until January 1946. He left the service as a Captain and later became a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve. Schwarz was an artillery reconnaissance officer in combat in the Italian campaign, participating in the Allied advance in Italy from Anzio north to the Swiss border. He engaged in hazardous counterintelligence work toward the end of the war, and after the cessation of hostilities he served as a member of a military intelligence interrogation unit in Austria. Schwarz had a measure of poetic justice experienced in few lives: he entered as a United States Army officer the ruins of the Vienna from which he had been 5

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

driven seven years earlier. His personal decency and humaneness were doubtless reflections of his deep understanding of what can happen in human affairs when these qualities disappear. After World War II, he completed his undergraduate education at George Washington University, where he received his Bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering in 1954, and continued his education with graduate work in both private universities and Federal staff colleges. He was a registered Professional Engineer in the District of Columbia. Schwarz’s first career in water resources was as an engineer and planner with the Corps of Engineers from 1947 to 1973. He began as a hydraulic engineer with the Washington District, continued with the Baltimore District as Chief of the Basin Planning Branch, and completed his career as Chief, Special Studies Branch, North Atlantic Division. He directed several Corps planning studies using new methods that contributed substantially to progress in water and environmental planning in the United States. These studies included the Potomac River Basin study (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1970), the first large basin study that he directed; the Susquehanna Basin study (U.S. Susquehanna River Basin Study Coordinating Committee, 1970); the North Atlantic Regional (NAR) study (U.S. North Atlantic Regional Water Resources Coordinating Committee, 1972); and the Northeastern Water Supply (NEWS) study (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, North Atlantic Division, 1977). Schwarz’s contributions to water resource and environmental planning arose both from the experiences of his practical service with the Corps and from his continued interest in exploring new methods and techniques through participation in university research programs. At the time of his leadership of the Potomac study, Schwarz participated in the Harvard Water Program as a Corps reviewer. The Harvard Water Program was then the foremost research program developing new methods in water planning, including multiobjective plan formulation and evaluation, the use of mathematical models, and synthetic hydrology (Maass et al., 1962). Schwarz’s interests and those of the Harvard Water Program were largely congruent. In the open academic setting of the Program, he was able to assimilate and to contribute to a new ideas and methods for water planning. This opportunity also increased his awareness of broader criteria for public administration, such as those discussed in Maass (1951). Schwarz began the Susquehanna River Basin study at the Baltimore 6

HARRY E. SCHWARZ

District in the mid-1960s. Shortly thereafter he had an unusual opportunity to implement improved water planning methods as the newly selected leader of the North Atlantic Regional (NAR) study headquartered at the North Atlantic Division of the Corps in New York. This study was a “framework” study designed to provide an overall planning structure for more detailed studies. The NAR study, completed in 1972, had a wide impact, including a strong influence on the development of the 1973 Principles and Standards of the U.S. Water Resources Council (U.S. Water Resources Council, 1973). Although the careful search for alternatives that is epitomized by the NAR study is not always fully pursued at the present time, the NAR methods serve as a foundation upon which the renewal of better methods can be based. The development and completion of the NAR study was one of the principal contributions cited by the American Water Resources Association in awarding the Ackermann medal to Schwarz; he later completed a book on the study (Major and Schwarz, 1990). Schwarz himself had a substantial influence on the development of young planners in the Corps and elsewhere as a result of his work on the NAR and earlier programs; he had an unusual ability to share his interests and hopes for planning while encouraging, and, in his gentle way, demanding, the best inputs of younger people. For a short time after the completion of the NAR study in 1972, Schwarz took over the management of the related but more specific Northeastern Water Supply (NEWS) study; this was completed after his retirement from the Corps in 1973. Schwarz’s second career, as professor and mentor, began toward the end of his work with the Corps. He began to teach courses once a week both in the Department of Regional Planning and Landscape Architecture at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and in the School of Geography at Clark University. After retiring from the Corps, he was appointed Professor of Environmental Affairs at Clark and directed the University’s Environmental Affairs Program. This program focused on the development of young people at the Master’s level to help meet a need that Schwarz saw early: for talented young people who could begin entry-level careers in the growing number of agencies concerned not only with water but with environmental issues more generally. This program produced dozens of graduates during Schwarz’s directorship. At Clark, where he became a key member of the faculty, Schwarz also participated in the work of the International Development Program, undertaking overseas missions to Africa and else7

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

where for resources planning. He became an emeritus professor at Clark in 1987, but continued his involvement with the University’s programs and also kept up his consulting work (he allowed his Professional Engineer’s license to become inactive only in 1993). At Clark, as in his career with the Corps, Schwarz distinguished himself as a mentor and guide to young people. This book focuses on Schwarz’s work in water resources and environmental planning, and thus it omits some significant elements of his personal and professional talents. In particular, his excellence as a photographer is not reflected here, nor, of course, are his skills as a soldier in combat. Some of these other elements of his life and work, as well as details of his personal history, are captured in short biographical sketches that he wrote at various times. A list of these, in the holdings of the Office of History, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is given in Appendix 3; a detailed interview with Schwarz (United States Army Corps of Engineers, 1988) is included as Appendix 4 to this book.*

*Much of this chapter is based on David C. Major, Kyle Schilling, and Eugene Z. Stakhiv, “In Memoriam: Harry E. Schwarz,” Hydata 16:6 November, 1997 10–11. See also Appendix 4 of this volume, “Engineer Profile: Interview with Harry E. 8

HARRY E. SCHWARZ

Harry E. Schwarz (standing just right of cannon and left of girl with braids) with his Viennese schoolmates and their homeroom teacher, Fritz Redl. Redl later helped many of his students escape from Austria (see Appendix 3). 9

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Harry E. Schwarz during World War II.

Harry and Elizabeth Schwarz early in their marriage. 10

HARRY E. SCHWARZ

References

Maass, Arthur, Muddy Waters: The Army Engineers and the Nation’s Rivers, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1951. Maass, Arthur, et al., Design of Water-Resource Systems, Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press, 1962.

Major, David C., and Harry E. Schwarz, Large Scale Regional Water Resources Planning: The North Atlantic Regional Study, Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, Water Science and Technology Library, Volume 7, 1990.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, North Atlantic Division, Northeastern United States Water Supply Study, New York, 1977. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Office of History, Engineer Profiles: Mr. Harry E. Schwarz, Corps of Engineers, Retired (oral history interview), 1988.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Potomac River Basin Report, House Doc. 91-343, 91st Congress, 2nd session, 1970.

U.S. North Atlantic Regional Water Resources Coordinating Committee, North Atlantic Regional Water Resources Study, report, annexes and appendices, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, North Atlantic Division, New York, 1972. U.S. Susquehanna River Basin Study Coordinating Committee, Susquehanna River Basin Study, 19 vols., Baltimore, MD, 1970. U.S. Water Resources Council, Water and Related Land Resources: Establishment of Principles and Standards for Planning, Federal Register 38:174, 24,778–24,869, 1973.

11

Chapter 3

The engineering background: Water planning, hydrology, computers, and the Corps of Engineers from WWII to 1960 I would like to emphasize my feeling that individual professionals have a very, very great role to play, a greater role maybe than the system allows. —HARRY E. SCHWARZ

Schwarz’s innovations in water resources planning are all the more remarkable because he worked within a highly structured bureaucratic environment. INTRODUCTION

—EUGENE Z. STAKHIV

Schwarz’s early Corps experiences were within a highly traditional bureaucratic framework. The impressive technological and theoretical changes in water resources planning described in Chapter 4 took place only beginning in the early to mid-1950s. At the time of the work reproduced in this chapter, the Corps was responsible both for postwar tasks and for its traditional role in water resources and other civil works. Schwarz himself had confronted military problems during the war and continued his interest in these immediately after the war; he then turned full time to hydrology and later to water and environmental planning. The Corps was divided administratively into divisions and, within divisions, districts, each headed by an Army colonel or general. The total employment of the Corps included tens of thousands of professionals and support staff, and Schwarz worked for the Washington and Baltimore Districts within this context. Characteristically, however, Schwarz was active not only within the Corps, but also in one of his principal intellectual homes, the American Geophysical Union, which embraced an active group of hydrologists and computer modelers. The two papers in this chapter show Schwarz, first, in the final phase of his interest in strictly military matters; and, second, immersed in his work in hydrology and engineering. The first document is excerpted from Schwarz’s translation of a Swiss paper on the famous low-level Royal Air Force bombing of German dams in 1943. This translation was done for the 13

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Corps of Engineers, and although it was not published Schwarz thought it an important part of his development, listing it in his bibliography and keeping copies among his papers. It reflects his characteristic interests: the role of technology, the impact of infrastructure design on the human environment, and how infrastructure might be improved. The second paper in this chapter is a hydrology paper focusing on flood frequency calculations and analysis. This is work that is central to water planning, but done with several typical Schwarz elements: the reference to his work with colleagues, in this case including the distinguished Corps hydrologist Leo R. (Roy) Beard, and the innovative use of computers. The work in this paper brings the reader to the beginning of Schwarz’s principal contributions to water and environmental planning.

Harry E. Schwarz and colleague with an early Burroughs computer. 14

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

Readings

Schwarz, Harry E. translation from the German of “Destruction and Protection of Dams and Levees,” Schweizerische Bauzeitung, 14 March, 1949, by Otto Kirschner, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Military Hydrology Research and Development Branch, Washington, DC (n.d.), Parts I and VI. Schwarz, Harry E. “Determination of Flood Frequencies in a Major Drainage Basin,” International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), Comptes Rendus et Rapports—Assemblée Générale de Toronto, 1957 (Gentbrugge, 1958), Tome III, 174–187.

15

Destruction and Protection of Dams and Levees1 Translated from the German by H. E. Schwarz

During World War II three of Germany’s dams located on the Mohne, Sorpe, and Eder Rivers were attacked on the same night. This operation was carried out by the Royal Air Force during the night of 16 and 17 May 1943 as a low-level surprise attack from a height of approximately 18 m, using special heavy rotating bombs (Roll Bombs).1 The flood wave released by their destruction caused widespread devastation. To obtain a basis for the preparation of plans for precluding or reducing damages from such occurrences in the future, these flood waves were later carefully studied. It is believed that the results of these investigations are of sufficient general interest to be published. I. Description of the Dams and the Damages. A. The Mohne Dam.

This dam was built in the period 1908–1913, from a design by E. Link, mainly for the purpose of providing domestic and industrial water supply in Ruhr area. The drainage area above the dam is 430 km2, the average annual inflow is 240 x106 m3, the reservoir capacity is 134 x 106 m3, and the surface area is 10.2 km2. This gravity dam with an arched axis is 650 m long at the crest and 40 m high. (Maximum water level 32 m.) The top width is 6.25 m and the base width 34 m. The attack by the Royal Air Force was carried out during the period when the reservoir was completely full. On 17 May 1943 at 12:49 a.m., a bomb exploding close to the face of the dam approximately 10 m below the water surface breached the upper part of the dam. A gap 76 m wide at the top and 22 m deep developed in the center of the dam. Within the next 12 hours 116 x 106 m3 of water escaped through this breach. On the 16 of May 1943 the storage in the reservoir was 132.2 x 106 m3. It was later determined that the initial rate of flow through the gap was 8,800 m3/sec. In the narrow Mohne Valley this caused a surge 10 m high which caused great destruction. This surge was considerably higher than the highest flood of record, 17

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

the flood of 1890. Approximately 1200 lives were lost. All buildings situated on low ground between the dam and Hagen (approximately 65 km downstream) were either swept away or damaged. All bridges for 50 km downstream were destroyed. Eye witnesses report that the water piled up as high as 2 m on the bridges before they collapsed. The power stations, No. I, located at the foot of the dam (4,800 kw output, four generating units), and No. II (300 kw, two generating units) located at the re-regulation pool at Gunne, just disappeared. At the confluence of the Ruhr and the Rhine Rivers (148.5 km from the Mohne Valley dam) the stage rose about 4 m when the crest of the flood wave, 25.5 hours after the catastrophe, passed there. This meant that the discharge of the Rhine River increased by 1100 m3/sec. The effects of the rupture of the Mohne dam were very serious because on one hand this dam was the main source for the water supply of the densely populated Ruhr area, and on the other hand its rupture flooded most other water supply plants in the Ruhr all the way to Essen and put them out of commission. A large number of towns like Hamme, Hagen, Bochum and Dortmund were without water. Also, the pump storage plant at Herdecke on the Ruhr, 60 km below the Mohne dam, which with its 132,000 kw output is one of the most important power stations of the Rheinisch-Westfalischen Electric Power Company (RWE), could not operate for 14 days because its power house was under 2 m of water. B. The Sorpe Dam.

Here we deal with a dam constructed in the period from 1922–1933 as an earth fill structure with a watertight concrete core wall also designed and built under the direction of E. Link. The height of this dam above the valley floor is 60 m, the maximum water depth is 57 m, and crest is 700 m long. The upstream and downstream slopes at the center of the dam are 1 on 2.25 and 1 on 2.50 respectively. To make it difficult for water to penetrate the dam the upstream part is constructed of impervious material covered by a protective layer. The downstream part is constructed of pervious material to allow that water which seeps through the impervious part and the core wall to drain as fast as possible. The storage capacity of the Sorpe reservoir is 81 x 106 m3. When completely full a lake of 3.8 km2 is created. The annual flow of water from the catchment area into the reservoir is 31 x 106 m3. 18

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

The air attack on the Sorpe dam was carried out at the same hour as the one on the Mohne dam, apparently with the intent to cause them to fail simultaneously. This earth dam however did not fail, although the crest of the dam received two direct hits which created craters 12 m deep. The attacks on the Sorpe dam were later repeated several times, including a concentrated attack on the 16 October 1944. In all these attacks 11 hits were scored on this earth dam without causing a collapse or leakage. After the first attack, however, the water level in the reservoir was lowered a few meters as a precautionary measure. The fact that the gravity masonry dam on the Mohne was ripped open while the earth dam across the Sorpe withstood the attack is of decisive importance. The effect on the Ruhr area would have been of catastrophic proportions if the Sorpe valley reservoir also would have run out during those early morning hours of the 17 of May 1943, and the two flood waves would have combined and superimposed themselves on each other. C. The Eder Dam.

This dam is located at Waldeck in the vicinity of Kassel and was, after the successful action against the Mohne dam, the target of the same Royal Air Force outfit. These two dams are only 80 km airline distance apart. The Eder dam is Germany’s second largest dam (second only to the Bleilock dam on the upper Saale in Thuringen), and was constructed in the years 1908–1913 as a rubble masonry gravity structure. This dam stores 202 x 106 m3 water, and when completely full creates the impressive and beautiful Eder Lake which covers an area of 11.7 km2. The average annual inflow into the reservoir is 500 x 106 m3. The Eder Lake augments low flows, helps control floods on the Fulda and Weser Rivers, benefits navigation, and supplies the Mittelland canal with water. In addition, power is generated by the Eder dam. Immediately downstream of the dam are the power stations Hemforth I (13,000 kw) and II (17,000 kw) with nine generating units in all. In addition, in Hemfurth is the pump storage plant Waldeck, which with its four turbines has a peak output of 115,000 kw, and finally there is at Affoldern at the Eder re-regulation pool a small run-of-the-river power plant with a single turbine delivering 2,560 kw. This arched masonry dam is 400 m long at the top, 48 m high and the maximum water depth is 41 m. The wall is about 6 m thick at the crown and 35 m at the base. 19

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

In the attack on the Eder dam which occurred at 1:20 a.m. on the 17 of May 1943, a hole of about 25 m radius was blasted through the dam near the left tower (as seen from the downstream side). As the breach was smaller that the one in the Mohne dam, the time needed for the reservoir to run out was longer than at the Mohne. The maximum discharge through this breach was computed to have been 8,500 m3/sec, or to have been of similar magnitude as the flow from the Mohne dam. The time, however, to empty the reservoir of 154.4 x 106 m3 out of the total of 202.4 x 106 m3 which were in storage at the time of the attack, extended to 36 hours. Besides the opening which resulted from the blast, cracks and loosened sections appeared in several places. The damage at the power stations at Hemfurth and Affoldern was reported as severe. The flood wave which was able to spread easier in the much larger Eder and Fulda valley, did not have the same catastrophic effect here as it had in the narrow Mohne and Ruhr valley. The damage, however, was still large enough. The river bed of the Eder from the dam to the mouth was completely devastated, and in addition, large land areas were flooded and covered with silt. The retaining dike of the re-regulation pool showed large crevices and wash-outs. The rapid dropping of the water level in the Eder lake caused large slides in four places along the shore. The locks of all seven dams on the canalized Fulda between Gunterhausen and Hannoverisch-Munden were silted in and partly washed out. Manifold damage was caused on the weirs and gates. The flood wave caused a heavy bedload movement which made it necessary to dredge 30,000 m3 to restore the original conditions on the Fulda. This bedload movement continued in the Weser downstream of HannoverischMunden causing shoals which had to be removed by further dredging (app. 5,000 m3). In addition, about 1,000 spur-dikes on the Weser were either destroyed or damaged. The shore line of both the Fulda and Weser heavily damaged. On the Weser alone 5.5 km of shore protection had to be rebuilt. VI. Discussion and Conclusion

The catastrophies which occurred in the Mohne and Eder valleys during the late war, and the failures of the levees along several canals, point up the fact that, in the planning of hydraulic structures, protection against intentional destruction needs more study today than ever before. Complete and absolute protection is impossible especially because in the process of engineering the meaning of safety is a continuously changing one. However, as 20

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

most hydraulic structures, especially dams, are long-term projects which fulfill their purpose for a generation or more, protection is very difficult because it is impossible to foresee the development of engineering for centuries ahead. It is the duty of every responsible engineer to plan ahead safety measures, and continue to improve them, which protect against foreseeable dangers and are possible, sensible and economical. In the case of dams and levees the following conclusions were reached:

1. Earth dams provide greater protection against intentional destruction than do masonry dams. Whenever it is possible to erect an earth dam in place of masonry one, this possibility should be explored. Buttress dams are especially vulnerable.

2. In an emergency it is usually sufficient to lower the water level a few meters to give a fair degree of protection to both earth and masonry dams.

3. It appears that in the future, larger cross sections than are normal today, at least near the top, will be necessary on both earth and masonry dams. To the considerations of design used up to now, such as statics and economy, a new one, protection against willful destruction, must be added.

4. The most important step in protecting earth dams is leak proofing. Once water has found its way to the downstream or land side of the dam, an embankment failure cannot be averted. The process of destruction once begun, continues automatically. Relief is possible only in the earliest phases.

5. Floodwaves created by dam failures may have catastrophic effects in the narrow valleys and near flow obstructions. In wider valleys where the water can be spread, the crest of the floodwave flattens out rapidly and soon loses its destructive force. In the Ruhr areas artificial lakes helped to reduce the flood created by the failure of the Mohne dam. Storage basins like these will prove themselves helpful in many instances.

6. Safety can be improved by releasing trial floodwaves from dams, to discover hidden danger sources in advance and to institute timely, correct protection measures.

7. Model tests have shown themselves as valuable, maybe even an indispensable aid in the design of earth dams and levees in connection with their safety against intentional destruction. It also is believed that model tests would help to judge the safety of masonry structures against such destruction. 21

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Endnotes

1

See also “Grundsätzliches zur Wahl des Staumauertyps für grosse Staubecken” SBZ 1948, Nr. 11 page 150.

[Editor’s note: The other sections of this article are: II. Flow of the Mohne Dam Floodwave; III. Flow of the Eder Dam Floodwave; IV. Air Attacks on Canals; and V. Model Tests. The translated article contains photos and engineering drawings too poorly reproduced for use; references to these are omitted here.]

22

Determination of Flood Frequencies in a Major Drainage Basin H. E. Schwarz

SYNOPSIS

The purpose of this paper is to show the application of mathematical frequency analyses methods developed by the U.S. Army Engineers to the study of the flood frequency problem of a river basin. Since data of sufficient length for reliable frequency estimates are available for only a few stations, such an analysis is necessary to develop frequency curves for the many points in the basin where problems exist. The Potomac River above Washington, D.C., a basin of 11,560 square miles of drainage area, has been used to illustrate the use of the mathematical frequency analysis methods. All the data on gaging stations in the Potomac River basin were analysed to develop individual peak frequency curves. The data were then used to correlate with other stations and with drainage area characteristics to develop peak frequency curves having a much greater reliability than those computed from a single record only. In addition a method is shown here to obtain a reasonable estimate of flood frequencies for ungaged points on the main stream and its tributaries. INTRODUCTION

The design and justification of flood control and multiple purpose projects are complex processes. However, the results and conclusions from the studies involved must be presented in a form that will permit comparison with other projects as well as an evaluation of the economical justification of the individual project. One means of determining the economic justification of a project is to compute the “benefits-costs ratio” (B/C), which is the arithmetic proportion of estimated average annual benefits to average annual costs, insofar as these factors can be expressed in monetary terms. The B/C ratio represents the degree of tangible economic justification of a project, but does not reflect many indirect and intangible benefits that may accrue from the project, such as protection of human life and other values to the community or 23

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

nation that cannot be readily expressed in monetary terms. “Average Costs” (or charges) are the equivalent of the project costs reduced to an average annual basis by compound interest methods. and include interest and amortization on the investment, plus replacements, operation and maintenance of the project during its economic life. “Annual monetary benefits” are the tangible benefits attributable to a project computed as a uniform annual series over the amortization period. In estimating the average annual benefits to be expected from a flood control project, or any other project dependent upon the regulation of stream flow, knowledge of probable frequencies of recurrence of run-off volumes and peak discharges of various magnitudes is highly important. In some cases, estimates of peak discharge frequencies only are adequate for project studies, whereas in others estimates of run-off volumes corresponding to various periods of time and frequencies of occurrence are needed. In this paper run-off probability studies applicable to a wide range of project analyses are outlined. Although run-off frequency estimates constitute one important phase of project evaluations and design, it should be emphasized that other considerations also enter into final determinations of project adequacy for specific purposes. This paper is limited to presentations relating primarily to frequency analysis. To study and improve the methods used to determine frequency, the Corps of Engineers, U.S. Army has been conducting a study program under the general supervision of Mr. A. L. Cochran of the Office, Chief of Engineers and under the technical supervision of the writer and Mr. L. R. Beard of the U. S. Army Engineer District, Sacramento, California. The method developed and accepted after careful study was a statistical one. In this method the frequency curve is described by three statistics representing the average height of the cumulative frequency curve: the average slope of the curve, and the degree and direction of the curvature. These three components were measured statistically by the mean, standard deviation and skew coefficient respectively, of the logarithms of annual maximum runoff rates or volumes. These basic statistics are then subject to adjustment by the use of correlation with long term stream flow records if available and by correlation with drainage basin or stream characteristics of an entire region or major basin. Such correlation and subsequent adjustment of basic statistics will then yield frequency curves of much greater 24

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

accuracy than can be obtained from flow records at one station alone. The analyses of a considerable number of rivers showed that the skew coefficient did not vary significantly from station to station but was a function only of the duration over which the flow volume is measured. A skew of zero appeared best fitted for peak flows, while the skew for volumes was expressed by the equation: g1 = 0.13 - 0.11 log t

where:

(1)

g1 = skew coefficient

t = duration in days

With these statistics and a table of Pearsons Type III distribution. which was found to represent best this flood-frequency distribution the frequency curves can then be constructed in a short time. (1) This method was presented in detail by Mr. Beard in his paper “Statistical Evaluation of Runoff Volume Frequencies” at Dijon, France, in September 1956.

THE PROBLEM

During 1956 the U.S. Army Engineer District Washington, was assigned the task to prepare a plan of development for the Potomac River. This river, which drains about 11,000 square miles above the City of Washington rises in the Appalachian Mountains and flows through them, their foothills and finally discharges into Chesapeake Bay. This basin encompasses steep and rugged mountain valleys, broad valleys in rolling hills, piedmont and coastal plain areas. Preliminary studies of the localities in the basin, that would need flood control, or where reservoirs could be planned showed that available data at those points in most cases did not allow the direct determination of flow frequencies. An overall approach leading to reliable frequency estimates throughout the basin regardless of the record at the site studied was indicated. It was therefore decided to test the methods developed in our research program on this problem. DATA COLLECTION

The first step was a careful inventory of data available in the basin. Data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey records for 64 stations in the Potomac basin. Of these stations only one, that at Point of Rocks (9,650 sq. 25

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

mi. Drainage Area) had a long 59 year record, the others varied from 6 to 34 years. Figure 1 shows graphically the number of stations and the length of records available. The records were carefully screened to eliminate or correct for man made variations in flow. Data for the annual peaks and for the 3, 10 and 30 day annual maximum volumes were tabulated from the record. Figure 2 shows such a sample tabulation for the station “North Branch of the Potomac at Cumberland, Md.” DETERMINATION OF FREQUENCY STATISTICS FOR INDIVIDUAL STATIONS

The next step was the computation of means and standard deviation for all stations under consideration. This operation was carried out with the help of student trainees and the work was carefully systematized using prepared computation forms. Figure 3 shows a sample of the computation of mean, standard deviation and plotting position for graphical verification. The plotting position formula used is P = 100 (1 - 0.51/N) when P = probability (Plotting Position) N = Number of years of record

(2)

This formula was used to compute the probability of the largest event of each record, and the others are linearly interpolated to the 50 percent position. Figure 4 shows the frequency curve for peak frequencies at Cumberland, Md. determined from the gage record at that point. Also shown on this figure are the error limits based on the “t” distribution and the “chi square” distribution. These limits indicate the accuracy of the curve based on its length of record. The true curve will fall between these limits with a probability of 18 out of 20. The limitation of frequency curve derivation from just one relatively short record becomes rather obvious here. The true 1 percent or 100 year frequency flood could vary from 60,000 cfs to 136,000 cfs or over a range of 94 percent of its mean. Further refinements therefore are needed to improve the frequency estimates.

26

T H E E N G IN E E R IN G B A C K G R O U N D

Fig. 1

F ig . 2 N o rth Branch Potomac R ive r C um berland, M d.

Computer J.J.G. Checked by H.E.S. Date A p ril 1957

Date

10-3-1929 5-13-1931 5-13-1932 3-14-1933 1-7-1934 1-22-1935 3-17-1936 4-26-1937 10-28-1937 2-4-1939 4-20-1940 6-4-1941 4-10-1942 10-15-1942 5-7-1944 2-27-1945 6-20-1946 3-15-1947 4-13-1948 12-16-1948 3-28-1950 6-13-1951 3-11-1952 1-24-1953 3-1-1954 10-15-1954

Stage ft.

Type o f F lood

Discharge c.f.s.

6,800 13.500 26,500 23,400 16,800 12,800 88 200 51 700 57 400 21 500 16 800 20 800 16,800 50,500 15,300 18,200 8,610 9,460 19,600 18,600 11,900 23,100 20,700 13,900 19,000 42,600

9.00 13.00 19.20 17.80 14.60 12.50 29.10 24.20 25.10 16 75 14.57 16.54 14.58 24.04 13.75 15.30 10.05 10.45 16.00 15.50 12.06 17.65 16.69 12.05 15.96 23.8

27

Snow M elt

.

Hurricane

Hurricane

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

ADJUSTMENT FOR LONG RECORD

In the majority of occasions flood flows in a major basin or region occur during the same storm period and there is therefore a relationship between the maximum flows experienced at the various stations. This fact is useful in extending the short term records using long term records as a guide. The longest reliable record in the basin, the 59 year record at the Potomac River gage at Point of Rocks, was the obvious index for such use. Simple linear correlation computations were performed on the records of each station in the Basin with the concurrent portion of the Point of Rocks record, and the coefficients of determination R2 and of correlation R computed. The computation of these coefficients was based on the formula R2 = 1 -

in which:

ΣXΣY/N)] N-1 [1 - ΣX -([(ΣΣX)XY)-( /N][ΣY -(ΣY) /N] ] N-2 2

2

2

2

2

(3)

R = correlation coefficient

Σ = summation for N years

X = annual maximum logarithm of runoff at one location Y = corresponding annual maximum logarithm at the second location N = number of years of concurrent record

Adjustment of the mean (m) and standard deviation (S) of logarithms at a given location (Station 1) to take advantage of the long record at the index station (Station 2) was made by the use of the following formulas: S´1 - S1 = (S´2 - S2) R2 S1/S2

(4)

m´1 - m1= (m´2 - m2) R2 S´1 /S2´

(5)

in which the symbols with primes represent the long-period values and those without primes represent the short-period or concurrent period records. This computation also was standardized on a form for routine computations by trainees using desk calculators. Figure 5 shows this computation for the adjustment of the frequency statistics at Cumberland by use of the record at Point of Rocks. 28

T H E E N G IN E E R IN G B A C K G R O U N D

Fig. 3 Rank o f Flood Peak

P lotting Position

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

2.6 6.4 10.2 14.0 17.8 21.6 25.4 29.2 32.9 36.7 40.5 44.3 48.1 51.9 55.7 59.5 63.3 67.1 70.8 74.6 78.4 82.2 86.0 89.8 93.6 97.4

Ann. max . Log .o f Ann. Flow in cfs Max. Flow

88,200 57,400 51,700 50,500 42,600 26,500 23,400 23,100 21,500 20,800 20,700 19,600 19,000 18,600 18,200 16,800 16,800 16,800 15.300 13,900 13,500 12,800 11,900 9,460 8,610 6,800

4.946 4.759 4.714 4.703 4.629 4.423 4.369 4.364 4.332 4.318 4.316 4.292 4.279 4.270 4.260 4.225 4.225 4.225 4.185 4.143 4.130 4.107 4.076 3.976 3.935 3.833

Σx

112.034 26 4.309 12,551.617 484.478 482.755 1.723 0.069 0.263

n m

(Σ x )2 S(X)« (Σ x )2/n

29

Mean log = 4.309 A n tilo g — 20,370 Plot at 50% M + S = 4.572 A n tilo g = 37,330 Plot at 15.9% M — S* = 4.046 A n tilo g =11,120 Plot at 84.1%

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Fig. 4

30

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

This computation increases the reliability of the frequency statistics to the extent of being approximately equal to the reliability of a frequency statistic computed from a record of N´1 years from the expression. where:

N1 = equivalent length of record at station 1

(6)

N1 = actual length of record at station 1

N2 = actual length of record at station 2 R = coefficient of correlation between stations 1 and 2

In the example shown an increase in reliability from that associated with a record of 26 years to one of 26 - (59 - 26) 0.610 = 46 years was indicated. However, before an adjustment can be accepted a check must be made for the chance of accidental correlation. One of the charts shown in statistical texts for this purpose was used for this determination. (2) Only correlations where the 1 in 20 chance of true correlation is better than 0.1 were used. Not all stations can be adjusted from one index station. Some can only be satisfactorily related to a closer but shorter record station. This will however, still give a more reliable frequency estimate, than the unadjusted statistics. The summary in Figure 8 shows the frequency statistics before and after this adjustment and the equivalent length of record.

CORRELATION WITH AREA CHARACTERISTICS

The frequency curves developed tor two stations with identical hydrologic, meteorologic and topographic characteristics should be identical and the adding together of their records should increase the accuracy of determination of the frequency by the number of years added from the one station to the other. However, this is only true if the two records are independent, that is they are not affected by the same storms. If there is a correlation between the records, then the increase of accuracy which develops from adding the second record decreases proportionally with the degree of correlation, reaching no increase in accuracy if correlation becomes perfect. This then means that the improvement of frequency estimated is inversely proportional to the correlation between records in the area studied. As discussed in previous paragraphs of this paper, good correlation was 31

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Fig. 5

32

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

obtained between most of the contemporary records in the basin and this fact gave us substantial increase in accuracy of frequency determinations. Paradoxically, this same fact now tells us that correlation with basin characteristics will have only a small influence on the accuracy of our frequency estimates. However, as this correlation with basin characteristics will give us the needed tool to estimate frequencies at ungaged points in the basin, its importance is undiminished. As for any correlation the first step must be the selection of variables. The frequency curves desired are described by their means and standard deviation and therefore the mean and standard deviation are obvious choices for dependent variables. The independent variables selected should be significant to the regimen of flood flow and must be relatively easy to obtain accurately. The limitation of time and data eliminated many a promising variable such as infiltration surface storage and ground cover. The variables selected for study were therefore, the drainage area, the stream length, the stream slope, the average annual precipitation over the basin, the average annual number of rainy days in the basin, and an area shape factor given as DA/L2. Each of these independent variables were then tested against the dependent variables by computing the simple coefficient of correlation of their logarithms with the mean and the logarithm of the standard deviation. Equation (3) previously mentioned was used here. This computation was useful to eliminate those independent variables having the least usefulness, that is having the smallest correlation coefficient. The remaining four independent variables slope, length, average annual precipitation, and drainage area were then related to the dependent variable by two linear multiple correlation computations, which were repeated with only the three most important variables. The computations showing the highest degree of reliability, i.e., the largest coefficient of correlation and the smallest standard error was then used for the adjustment of the frequency statistics. The correlation computations including all four independent variables proved to be the best. These computations were also arranged on forms for routine calculation by engineering aides. Figure 6 shows a portion of such a computation. The regression constants and the regression coefficients computed in the correlation then make up two regression equations of the form: X1 = a - b2X2 - b3X3- b4X4 - b5X5

(7)

33

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

these are

m = 1.121 - 0.113 log s - 0.432 log L - 0.359 log P - 0.535 log D.A. (8)

log 10S = 2.739- 0.064 log s - 0.029 log L-1.479 log P- 0.011 log D.A. (9)

in which

m = Mean of logarithm of annual flood peaks

S = Standard deviation of the frequency curve s = stream slope in feet/mile L = stream length in miles

P = average annual precipitation in inches D.A. = drainage area in square miles

These regression equations can now be used to adjust and further refine the frequency estimates.

ADJUSTMENT BASED ON REGRESSION

In general, regression equations assume that the variables used in developing them are relative accurate. Here, however, the dependent variable, a frequency statistic, definitely contains a considerable error. Therefore, the standard error of the estimate based on the regression contains a component due to the error in the values of the dependent variable used in deriving the regression equation. The true standard error of an estimate from the regression can then be determined as the square root of the difference between the variance computed from the regression equation and the variance of the frequency statistic based on the length of record. This net standard deviation of the estimate of a frequency statistic based on the regression equation is then a measure of the reliability of the regression result. Usually this is less than the reliability of the result from the extended individual record. However, inasmuch as the two estimates are based on largely independent data, their values can be combined to form a single estimate, more reliable than either one of the individual estimates. The method of combining the two estimates used here is to weigh them in proportion to their reliability, using the years of record necessary to obtain a given degree of reliability as the measure of the weight attributable to each value. 34

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

Fig. 6

Station

L o ca tio n

No. Br. Potom ac N o. Br. Potomac N o. Br. Potomac

B lo om in gton P in to C um berland

Potomac

W ashington

Ex m

Σ (XX2) Σ x Σ x 2/ n Σ (x x 2) Σ (X X 3) Σ x Σ x 3/n Σ ( x x 3) Σ (xx4) Ex Ex .,/n Σ(xx4) Σ (XX3) Σ x Σ x 3/n Σ (xx3 ) Σ (X X 1) Σ x Σ X1/N Σ(xx1)

x 2 Log. S

X3 Log. L

X3 Log. P

x3

x1

Log D .A .

Log. M

1.634 1.423 1.320

1.659 1.833 1.929

1.633 1.607 1.593

2.458 2.775 2.942

3.940 4.141 4.294

0.533 24.683 1.073 29.228 26.489 2.739

2.478 42.070 1.829 43.262 45.148 - 1.886 79.980 76.952 3.028

1.594 36.021 1.566 38.605 38.657 - 0.052 65.848 65.887 - 0.039 56.442 56.414 0.028

4.063 64.438 2.802 66.061 69.153 - 3.092 122.766 117.866 4.900 100.885 100.918 - 0.033 188.991 180.533 8.458

5.066 93.907 4.083 98.428 100.778 - 2.350 175.782 171.768 4.014 147.011 147.071 - 0.060 270.167 263.095 7.072 389.607 383.414 6.193

2.739 b2 - 1.886 b 3 0.052 b4- 3.092 b5 = - 2.350 - 1.886 b2 + 3 .0 2 8 b 3 - 0.039 b4 + 4.9 0 0 b 5 = 4.014 - 0.052 b 2 - 0.039 b3 + 0.028 b4 -0 0.033 b5 = - 0.060 - 3.092 b 2 + 4 .9 0 0 b3 0.033 b4 + 8 .4 5 8 b5> = 7.072 a = m 1 - b2m 2 - b3m 3 - b4m4 - b5m5 - 3.971 R 2 = b2 Σ (X1X 2) + b3 Σ ( x 1x 3) + b3Σ(x1x4)+Z>82 ( x 1x 5)

b2 = 0.056 b3 = - 0.551 b4 = - 1.417 b3 = 1,170

.971

_ Σ (x t )2 R 2 = 1 - _(1 - R 2) (N - 1)/d f .965 S2 = (1— R 2) Σ ( x 1) 2/N - 1 = .0045

35

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

In our problem the standard error of the logarithm of S computed from the regression Equation (Equation 9) is 0.100 and the corresponding variance is 0.010. From the graph in Figure 7 (4) the standard error of log S based on 41 years, the average length of the individual records included in the regression analyses, is 0.049 and the corresponding variance is its square or 0.0023. The net error of the variance of the regression is then the difference 0.0100 - 0.0023 or 0.0077. The resulting standard error of the estimate based on regression is the square root of 0.0077 or 0.088. This standard error represents, as can be seen from Figure 7 the reliability associated with a record of 14 years. The final adjustment of the standard deviation can then be performed in the following manner: Station: North Branch at Cumberland, Md.

Value based on record Value based on regression Composite value

S 0.241 0.240 0.241

S2 0.0581 0.0576 0.0580

Equivalent Years 46 14 60

The composite value of variance is 0.0581 (46/60) - 0.0576 (14/60) = 0.0580. Although in this case the standard deviation is not affected, this simple analysis increases the reliability of the result by giving it an accuracy associated with a record of 60 years instead with one of 46 years. A similar computation can be performed for the mean. The frequency statistics thus adjusted are of a much higher degree of reliability then those based on the individual record. On Figure 4 the final curve and its confidence limits have been superimposed over the curves based on the individual record for the North Branch at Cumberland.

FREQUENCY FOR UNGAGED AREAS

The frequency statistics for ungaged areas throughout the basin can then be computed from equations 8 and 9. However, as can be seen from Figure 8 there are differences between the adjusted values and the regression estimates of the frequency statistics. These errors can be attributed either to inaccuracies in the basic data, or to the effect of variables not considered in the correlation analyses. A study of these errors showed that they had a def36

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

Fig. 7 - Standard Errors of Frequency Statistics

37

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

inite geographical distribution, with sub-areas of the watershed showing similar errors. While this phenomena will be the subject of further study, this area distribution can be used to improve the estimates of frequency statistics for ungaged areas by applying to the value computed from the regression equation a correction constant based on the error of the statistic at a nearby gaged area. The estimate of a frequency statistic thus derived has a considerable degree of accuracy at a point in a river basin for which no records are available DISCUSSION OF RESULTS AND METHOD

The described calculation, while by no means perfect, utilizes practically every scrap of information available about the area under study and yields frequency estimates for the entire basin as reliable or better than can be computed from the single record of the station having the longest record. There is no question but that more improvements can be made, and this report presents an intermediate device which gives improved results. The research program of the Corps of Engineers in this field is continuing and will be broadened to include a study of draught frequencies. During the later stages of the study discussed here the Burroughs Company made available an E101 Electronic Digital Computer to test the suitability of this equipment for studies of this type. Programs were written for the computations of Mean, Standard Deviation, simple, and multiple linear correlation. The computations were then repeated on the machine and the time savings checked. The equipment performed excellently and savings in the vicinity of one machine hour against 15–20 men hours were realized. It is hoped that a digital computer will be available for the continuation of these studies as it will make more time available for analyses of the problem, time now used in laborious computation. While the examples shown in this paper all referred to peak flows the same procedures can be and have been applied to flood volumes.

38

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

Fig. 8

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HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

CONCLUSIONS

The conclusions drawn from this study are the following:

1. Frequency estimates derived from individual records at a single location are often unreliable. 2. More reliable frequency determinations can be made by considering a basin or area as a whole. 3. The methods described yield relatively reliable results for locations with and without gage records 4. Further studies to improve results and techniques arc indicated.

5. Electronic computation is a great help to reduce the laborious com putation used.

40

THE ENGINEERING BACKGROUND

Bibliography

(1) Corps of Engineers, U. S. Army. “Stream Flow Volume Duration Frequency Studies,” U. S. Army Engineer District, Washington. June 1955. (2) M. Ezekiel. Methods of Correlation Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Second Edition 1941. Appendix 3.

(3) [L. R.] Beard. “Statistical Evaluation of Runoff Volume Frequencies.” Symposium Darcy I. U. G. G. Dijon, France: Sept. 1956. (4) [L. R.] Beard. “Statistical Methods in Hydrology.” O.C.E. Dept of the Army, Washington, D. C., July 1952.

41

Chapter 4

The development of planning methods: The Potomac Study, the Susquehanna, and the Harvard Water Program On the whole, considerably less attention has been paid to system design than to many other aspects of water-resource development. —ARTHUR MAASS AND HIS COLLEAGUES (1962)

INTRODUCTION

The readings in this chapter reflect the first phase of Schwarz’s work as a basin planner. They include first a largely unknown but impressively reasoned seminar paper given at The Johns Hopkins University in 1965. In this paper, Schwarz provides a summary of the state of the art of water planning as it would be defined for many years to follow, including incisive approaches to goals and objectives, the plan of study, the planning team, the sequential nature of the planning process, and the importance of good reporting. This is followed by a Schwarz paper on environmental considerations for the Potomac that illustrates his wide conception of environment; and an excerpt from the Potomac report summary that illustrates both the search for alternatives and Schwarz’s career-long concern with careful and informative reporting. The interplay between Schwarz’s academic and professional writing and the products of the government planning teams that he led is evident here. Finally there is a report of the Susquehanna Task Force. Schwarz worked on the Susquehanna plan early, before moving to the NAR study; the Task Force report is included here because it illustrates well the high level of discourse in water planning at the time and the oversight framework within which Schwarz operated. Schwarz had a continuing intellectual influence on the Susquehanna after his departure for New York. Schwarz’s leadership of the Potomac River Basin study, beginning in 1957, illustrates the development of his concerns and the beginning of his principal contributions to water planning. The standard basin study of the time was exemplified by the Delaware Basin Study (United States Army Engineer District, Philadelphia, 1961), a combination of engineering prac43

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

tices and the narrowly focused benefit-cost evaluation standards that arose after World War II as an application of theoretical welfare economics. The Potomac plan was one of the first to move beyond the standard approach. The innovations of the plan included: the explicit consideration of the distribution of the economic and social impacts of projects; the use of alternative plans to deal with the fundamental uncertainty of planning; the exploration of the links between water quality and water quantity; and the use of early electronic computers for hydrologic calculations (a Burroughs E101 was used for the work in the Potomac planning; see Chapter 3, above). Two elements influenced Schwarz greatly during this time period: the public reaction to the Potomac proposals, and his participation in the Harvard Water Program. At the time of the Potomac effort, there was a rapid growth of opposition to dams. This affected the Potomac planning in particular, because of the number of environmentally concerned people in Washington. This opposition, for which the Corps was not prepared, came out in public hearings on the Potomac River Basin Report. It was out of this experience that Schwarz’s concern with both multiobjectives and public input became intensified, two essential aspects of planning to which he contributed during the rest of his career. The Susquehanna was a plan formulation effort where public input was tried, an experiment that Schwarz observed carefully for lessons for the future. Schwarz’s initiatives in public involvement preceded the research of the Army Corps of Engineers’ Institute for Water Resources (IWR) beginning in 1972 on public participation methods. When Schwarz went to the Harvard Water Program he was familiar with computational methods, especially as at the time of planning for the Potomac and the Susquehanna, efforts to apply simulation and optimization were beginning to become influential. But at the Harvard Water Program he worked with people who were substantially ahead of what had been done in the Potomac; moreover this program provided the scholarly conceptual basis for multiobjective methods and was notable for careful documentation and presentation of results. All of this helped to form Schwarz as a mature planner, and provided him with tools that he was able to apply with success to real problems, as will be seen in the chapters that follow. Because Schwarz’s work as a planner took place during a period of substantial change in methods and criteria, to both of which he contributed, a brief history of water planning methods is provided here as a framework 44

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within which the papers in this and the following chapters can be placed. Primarily because of the important role played by Federal agencies in the water resources sector, the United States has long had official criteria for water resources planning. A history of water resources planning in the United States is in Holmes’s volumes (1972, 1979); a brief history of water planning criteria in the United States since the 1930s with reference particularly to objectives is given in Major (1977, pp. 1-6). Generally, the development of water planning can be seen as following a course from singlepurpose planning criteria, to multipurpose planning, to multipurpose and multiobjective planning within the context of risk and uncertainty analysis. (Purposes and objectives are not the same. Purposes are the outputs of a system such as flood control, water supply, and navigation; objectives refer to the social objectives of planning, such as increasing the national income, improving the environment or contributing to other “merit wants.”) The high level of rigor that has long been involved, at least conceptually, can be seen from publications of several decades ago: Eckstein (1958), Krutilla and Eckstein (1958), Hirshleifer, Milliman and DeHaven (1960), White (1969), Hall and Dracup (1970), Maass et al. (1962), and Marglin (1967). Porter (1995) discusses the evolution of benefit-cost analysis, Reuss (1992) the incorporation of social science into water planning, and Moore (1989) the evolution of water policy. From the standpoint of Schwarz’s work, the conceptual basis of planning and evaluation criteria since just before World War II is of most interest. The idea of linking benefits and costs together in an analytic framework was first presented in an easily accessible public document in the Flood Control Act of 1936 (U.S. Congress, 1936). In section 1 of that act, it is said that projects are appropriate if “the benefits to whomsoever they may accrue are excess of the estimated costs.” The context of the time in which this document was developed appears to indicate that the social objectives involved were diverse; indeed, the phrase just cited is immediately followed by a further criterion: “and if the lives and social security of people are otherwise adversely affected.” However, when applied benefit-cost methods were developed after World War II, these were based on an analytic model first carefully stated just before the war, the theoretical model of welfare economics (Bergson, 1938). Attempts to apply this model to water resources planning led to a separation of economic analysis (the estimation of benefits and costs relating to national income, or the “efficiency” objec45

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

tive) from consideration of other possible social objectives. The underlying assumption of this approach is that the welfare impacts of water resources or other public investments are measured, at least in substantial degree, by their economic impacts. The best-known U.S. document reflecting this approach is the “Green Book” report (U.S. Inter-Agency River Basin Committee, 1958), originally issued in 1950 and revised in 1958. A U.S. Bureau of the Budget Circular (1952) reinforced the emphasis on the “efficiency,” or national income, objective as the basis of water resources planning. This objective underlies, at least formally, the classic multipurpose basin plans of the Corps of Engineers such as the Delaware River Basin Plan (U.S. Army Engineer District, Philadelphia, 1961). The limitations of the welfare model (Graaff, 1963) were in large part the impetus for the development of multiobjective methods. The shift from efficiency-oriented, multipurpose planning in the 1960s to multiobjective planning in the 1970s is particularly relevant to Schwarz’s work; he understood it well and contributed to its development. The transition to multiobjective planning was based in significant part on the work of the Harvard Water Program. Multiobjective planning was introduced in government documents first by the report of the U.S. President’s Water Resources Council (1962). While not a fully multiobjective document, this report begins with a statement of the objectives of water resources planning that goes substantially beyond the efficiency objective. The successor to the U.S. President’s Water Resources Council, the legislatively established U.S. Water Resources Council, convened a working group to develop new criteria; this ultimately resulted in the Principles and Standards (P&S) of 1973 (U.S. Water Resources Council, 1973). The Principles and Standards represented a commitment to multiobjective planning for national income and the environment, and provided for the study of impacts on other objectives. (The objectives or accounts represented in the P&S are reflected in the discussion in Carter et al. 1994, pp. 37–38.) In reviewing the role of planning and evaluation criteria it is important to consider also larger issues of process in water planning. This process involves the executive, the Congress, the judicial branch, and individuals and groups, who interact in varying ways regarding different project options and the choice of criteria. For example, benefit-cost analysis and multiobjective analysis arose not just in agencies and universities, but also were given impetus by the struggles between executive and Congress for 46

THE DEVELOPMENT OF PLANNING METHODS

control over water project evaluation and selection, which occur to this day. Some parts of the executive branch have looked at criteria (e.g. the discount rate, or project cost-sharing proportions) instrumentally rather than in terms of abstract value—for example, as a way to control Congressional spending rather than as a commitment to the concept of optimality embodied in theoretical benefit-cost analysis. [This and the next three paragraphs follow Major and Frederick, 1997, pp. 27–28.] In addition, the difficulties of practically specifying and implementing planning and evaluation criteria also provide a wider range of decisionspace than is implied by the theoretical basis of the criteria: the regional development and environmental quality objectives, for example, are not so precisely defined in the criteria or in practice as they might be in theoretical models, and they thus provide less conceptual control over decisionmaking than is implied by some theories. Nevertheless, improved criteria help to improve the quality of decisions; however, the quality of decisions also depends on the wider process. There have been many proposals for improving the process; see, for example, Brewer (1986) and Hobbs (1997); see also the references, including many contributions to the development of public participation methods made or underwritten by the Corps of Engineers, in U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1993). Federal water planning has taken place in the United States at varying geographic scales, from small local projects to national assessments. Reflecting U.S. Water Resources Council guidelines, four scales in particular have influenced Federal water planning activities in recent decades. These are the national assessments; the Type I (framework) plans such as the North Atlantic Regional Study described in Chapter 5 and in Major and Schwarz (1990); Type II (basin) plans (this chapter); and Type III (single project) plans. At the time of the P&S, there was a carefully nested hierarchy, at least in principle, of the Type I, II and III plans. Type I plans would be used to identify regions or basins requiring more detailed analysis. Type II plans would be basin or other regional plans at a reconnaissance level; and Type III plans would be implementation studies for the purpose of project authorization or implementation (U.S. Senate, 1971, pp. 1–4, 1–5). The planning guidelines in force since 1983 are the Principles and Guidelines (P&G) (U.S. Water Resources Council, 1983). One useful interpretation of the Principles and Guidelines argues that they are a compromise between the two previous approaches of focusing primarily on 47

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

economics, as in the Green Book principles; and using a multiobjective approach, as in the Principles and Standards (Stakhiv, 1986). The P&G are employed, as were the Green Book and P&S criteria, in conjunction with detailed planning criteria to formulate, evaluate, and recommend investment and management actions at the area, basin, and project levels; for a general discussion of the P&G criteria see Stakhiv (1986). With respect to objectives, the P&G specify the efficiency objective, but also list the four accounts taken from earlier multiobjective criteria which are “established to facilitate evaluation and display of effects of alternative plans” (U.S. Water Resources Council, 1983, p. v). It is appropriate here, at the beginning of Schwarz’s exploration of new planning methods, to describe the sense in which environmental planning is used in this volume. Schwarz, a devoted photographer of nature and longtime member of a leading conservation organization, had a view of the environment that included the preservation of the natural world but which was much more expansive. His idea of the environment embraced the wellbeing of the whole of humanity and the natural world. From his own life experience and from his work in developing nations, especially in Africa, he felt deeply that environment embraced all aspects of living—not just the preservation of a particular part of the natural world. He was ready to face the compromises that might be required with a purely conservationist view of the environment. His contributions to environmental planning were within the framework of his larger views. These contributions relate particularly to water quality, the assessments of environmental impacts, and the visual and cultural aspects of the environment.

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Readings

Schwarz, Harry E. “Comprehensive, Multiple Purpose Water Resources Development,” seminar presentation at The Johns Hopkins University, February15, 1965. Schwarz, Harry E. “Environmental Considerations in Potomac River Planning,” unpublished seminar paper, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Baltimore District, n.d. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Potomac River Basin Report, Summary, pp. 17–20 (House Doc. 91-343, 91st Congress, 2nd session, 1970).

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, North Atlantic Division, Susquehanna River Basin Study Plan: A Review of Alternatives (First Report of the Susquehanna Task Force), 30 November 1966; rev. 6 December, 1966, pp. 1–12.

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References

Bergson, A., “A reformulation of certain aspects of welfare economics,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 52:2, 1938, 310–334.

Brewer, Garry, “Methods for Synthesis: Policy Exercises,” in W. C. Clark and R. E. Munn, eds., Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1986. Carter, T. R., M. L. Parry, H. Harasawa, and S. Nishioka, IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations, Department of Geography, University College London, and Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, 1994. Eckstein, 0., Water-Resource Development, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1958.

Graaff, J. de V., Theoretical Welfare Economics, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1963.

Hall, W. A., and J. A. Dracup, Water Resources Systems Analysis, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1970. Hirshleifer, J., J. W. Milliman, and J. C. DeHaven, Water Supply: Economics, Technology and Policy, University of Chicago Press. Chicago, IL, 1960.

Hobbs, B. F., P. T. Chao, and B. Venkatesh: 1997, “Using Decision Analysis to Include Climate Change in Water Resources Decision Making,” in Kenneth D. Frederick, David C. Major, and Eugene Z. Stakhiv, eds., Climate Change and Water Resources Planning Criteria, Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997; published concurrently as a special issue of Climatic Change 37:1 (September 1997), 177–202. Holmes, B. H., A History of Federal Water Resources Programs, U.S. Department of Agriculture Miscellaneous Publication 1233, 1972. Holmes, B. H., A History of Federal Water Resources Programs 1961–1970, U.S. Department of Agriculture Miscellaneous Publication 1379, 1979. Krutilla, J. V., and O. Eckstein, Multiple Purpose River Development, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, MD, 1958.

Maass, A., et al., Design of Water-Resource Systems, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA, 1962. 50

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Major, D. C., Multiobjective Water Resource Planning, American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 1977.

Major, D. C., and K. D. Frederick, “Water Resources Planning and Climate Change Assessment Methods,” in Kenneth D. Frederick, David C. Major, and Eugene Z. Stakhiv, eds., Climate Change and Water Resources Planning Criteria, Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997; published concurrently as a special issue of Climatic Change 37:1 (September 1997), 25–40. Major, D. C., and H. E. Schwarz, Large-Scale Regional Water Resources Planning: The North Atlantic Regional Study, Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, Water Science and Technology Library, Volume 7, 1990. Marglin, S. A., Public Investment Criteria, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1967.

Moore, J. W., and D. P Moore, The Army Corps of Engineers and the Evolution of Federal Flood Plain Management Policy, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 1989.

Porter, T., Trust in Numbers, Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ, 1995.

Reuss, M., “Coping with Uncertainty: Social Scientists, Engineers, and Federal Water Resources Planning,” Natural Resources Journal 32:1, 101–135, 1992.

Stakhiv, E. Z., “Achieving Social and Environmental Objectives in Water Resources Planning: Theory and Practice,” in W. Viessman, Jr., and K. E. Schilling, eds., Social and Environmental Objectives in Water Resources Planning and Management: Proceedings of an Engineering Foundation Conference, American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, 1986.

United States Army Corps of Engineers, “Historical Review Bibliography: USACE Public Participation Assessment Project.” U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources, Fort Belvoir, VA, 1993. United States Army Engineer District, Philadelphia, Delaware River Basin Report, December, 1960; revised May, 1961, 11 volumes (reproduced with identical pagination as U.S. House Document 87-522).

United States Bureau of the Budget, Reports and Budget Estimates Relating to Federal Programs and Projects for Conservation, Development, or Use of Water and Related Land Resources, Circular A-47, 1952. United States Congress, Flood Control Act of 1936, Public Law 74-738, 74th Congress, 2nd Session, 1936.

United States Inter-Agency River Basin Committee, Subcommittee on Benefits and Costs, Report to the Federal Inter-Agency River Basin Committee, Proposed Practices for Economic Analysis of River Basin Projects, rev. ed., Washington, DC, 1958, originally published 1950. United States President’s Water Resources Council: 1962, Policies, Standards, and 51

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Procedures in the Formulation, Evaluation, and Review of Plans for Use and Development of Water and Related Land Resources, Senate Doc. 87-97, 87th Congress, 2nd Session, May 19, 1962.

United States Senate, Committee on Public Works, Procedures for Evaluation of Water and Related Land Resources: Findings and Recommendations of the Special Task Force of the United States Water Resources Council, Serial No. 92-20, September 1971. United States Water Resources Council: 1973, Water and Related Land Resources.Establishment of Principles and Standards for Planning, Federal Register 38:174, 24,778–24,869, 1973.

United States Water Resources Council, Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies, 1983. White, Gilbert F., Strategies of American Water Management, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 1969.

52

Comprehensive, Multiple Purpose Water Resources Development Harry E. Schwarz

Everyone talks about comprehensive planning these days, and everyone means something different by it. Everything is comprehensive—if it is not comprehensive, then it can’t be any good. I want to forget about that term “comprehensive” and discuss Multiple Purpose Water Resources planning for an entire river basin. What is basin planning? It is really a problem in environmental engineering. We live and work in this environment by planning for development of the water and related land resources which make up a part of this environment. Let’s imagine that we are far out in space and are looking back towards earth and onto our problem from such a distance that we are in no way affected by our planning actions. From this vantage point, we can see four distinct steps in basin planning. The first step is identifying the objectives. The second one is to translate these objectives into specific goals. The third step is the formulation of a plan, and the fourth step is the evaluation and analysis of the plan to see what consequences will develop from carrying the plan out. The first step is probably the most important and probably the least understood. We think we know exactly what we want, but when we sit down to talk about it, we find out that we really don’t know. More plans have faltered due to poorly defined objectives than for any other reason I know of. Look at the Potomac—all of the controversy is based on the questions, “What should this River be like?” “What should it serve?” What kind of goals or objectives are possible? Economic efficiency is a wonderful goal, but efficient from whose standpoint? National efficiency, regional efficiency, local efficiency? Income redistribution is another goal. We may have social objectives or aesthetic ones. Recently the President [Lyndon B. Johnson–ed.] spoke of making the Potomac River beautiful. That is an objective. He didn’t say “I want 170 cfs or 4 parts per million DO.” He gave a broad objective. These are the ones we are talking about. 53

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Let us make up a sample objective. For instance, what objective could be used for basin planning in a depressed area in an otherwise affluent society. Our objective might be to develop an area to reach an income level approximating its surrounding area without hurting the national economy and with maximum attention to social and aesthetic considerations. Objectives may be contrary rather than complementary to each other. Thus, a balance must be achieved through the assignment of priorities. Often we don’t get these objectives directly and clearly. We have to deduce them; they are subject to change as our planning goes along; and they are never, but never, agreed to by everyone. It couldn’t be any other way in a free society. The second step is translating the objectives into the specific goals which the plan must meet. My definition of the differences between objectives and goals is that objectives are broad general statements and goals are measurable, specific items. Quality of water in specific terms of DO or BOD could be an example of a goal. Degrees of flood protection would be a specific goal; number of miles of wild river and size of recreation area are specific goals which must be deduced from the broad objective. The third step is the formulation of a plan. It is what we always have done; engineers have done this since the days of the Romans. We had a specific plan to develop. We had specific techniques to apply. We planned, designed and analyzed cost and benefits. We maximized our benefits or minimized our cost. This is the traditional area of engineering planning. The last step in basin planning is analyzing and evaluating the consequence of the plan. This should incorporate a complete analysis of costs and benefits in the broadest meaning of the terms. Hopefully, this analysis should evaluate besides monetary costs and benefits, the social and aesthetic ones, the consequences of alternatives, or of inaction. But most of all this last step must review the plan in the light of the objectives. This will show the degree of success of the planning effort. This closes the ring. This has been a short summary of basin planning as viewed from the outside. Unfortunately, however, the real planner does not have the advantages of such a detached viewpoint. He is after all a part of the environment. He looks not down on the area he plans for. He sees this area all around him. The environment affects him and his planning effort. Now, looking at basin planning from this viewpoint, that of an actual planner, the job divides itself into seven steps; planning for planning, col54

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lection of data, determination of needs, determination of capabilities, formulation of a tentative plan, evaluation and refinement of the plan, and report on the plan. Step one is planning for planning. This is a nice catchy phrase, and it characterizes a very important step because before we can really do a job we have to know what job to do. The formulation of the objectives is a major part of this step. If you are a Federal planner they may come to you as a directive or Congressional document which authorizes your work. Often the directive is not specific enough to give a clear statement of objectives; you must restate them from your own evaluation of the directive, in the light of existing public policy, background information available and your knowledge of the problems. Having made this evaluation, you have to go to your boss and he goes to his boss and so on up the line to check out your interpretation of the objectives. It is very important that at the outset there is a common understanding of the objectives. Regardless of how well you do this, there will be some misunderstandings. Another portion of planning for planning is the establishment of an organization. In my experience, a reasonable independent and self-sufficient planning group tailored to the task assigned, works best. It must be staffed with people combining experience and imagination and with people reasonably free from agency or professional prejudices. In the past, the engineer was the basin planner and, as I have said before, the engineering evaluation was the keystone of planning. It still is, but there is much to be added. The economist, most of all and the social and political scientists have come into their own in planning. In setting up a staffing arrangement all disciplines must be considered. All these disciplines might not necessarily be in your own organization, they may be people in other agencies, or they may be consultants. In the past we have had many different forms of basin-wide coordinating organizations. Basin Commissions, interagency committees, coordinating committees and many variations of these have been used. I have often been asked which one works best, and I can’t really answer this question. To my way of thinking, the formal organization is far less important than the spirit of coordination. Agencies do not cooperate. Individuals who are clearly interested in cooperating and working with others are far more important than the form of the organization and the mechanism set up for cooperation. The most perfect system of cooperation written down into the Nth degrees 55

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

in 200 pages of a beautiful legal document means nothing without a cooperative attitude of the participants. The most informal, most simple arrangement will work fine if everyone has the interest of cooperation at heart. A plan of study is another part of the first step to any basin study. This plan of study is not a static document you prepare once and never change. It is a document of the moment setting forth your plan of action, but it is always ready for changes as time, experience or conditions require. An incomplete plan prepared on time which changes quite significantly as work progresses is far better than a perfect one too late. A rigid plan with preconceived and built in conclusions is worse than no plan at all and it is very easy to build such preconceived conclusions into a plan of study. Your best insurance against this danger is a clear, concise and thorough analysis of your problem and of your approach to its solution. This analysis must include a careful review of each study element, its scope, the time, manpower and money allocated to it and its weight in the decision making process. Only through such a review can you make sure that you really give consideration to all the ramifications of the problem. The next step is the collection of basic data. First comes the question of what data is needed. I said in the beginning that basin planning is an exercise of environmental engineering. Therefore, the data must describe the environment. There are two sections of our environment which we have to clearly define. One is the physical environment. It is static, at least within the time frame in which we operate. It only changes when man does something specific to it. Streamflow, for instance, is a static part of the environment. While streamflow is not constant, it changes according to a pattern which can be statistically described. A change in this pattern would occur only if, for instance, a reservoir changes the streamflow regimen. Samples of environmental factors which are of this type are climate, meteorological factors, hydrology, topography, geology, geomorphology, fauna and flora. The second part of the environment is even harder to define because it is dynamic. It changes regardless of what we are doing to water resources. The human environment, economic environment, and social environment is a changing process. The rate of change is set by things other than those for which we are planning. The rate of change can be altered, it can be retarded or speeded up by a specific act of development. What are the economic environmental factors? They are population and 56

THE DEVELOPMENT OF PLANNING METHODS

population changes, business and industrial activities and their changes; social capital and its changes, technology and its changes. What are some of the social environmental factors? They are social customs, history, local aspirations, local and national politics, trends in social changes—all of them are important. Everyone takes data. Data produces big stacks of papers and these stacks look good on a performance report. Data, however, is only valuable as a basis for the decisions which we must make. So we must first determine about the decisions which we must make and then what data is needed. In other words, what do I have to know to render a decision which is valid. All other data is superfluous to the planning effort. It is easy to get lost in the data collection effort. Sometimes a staff member brings in a plan of what he is going to do, with pages and pages of description of what data he will take and one or two lines of what he is going to do with the data. When this happens, I always tell him to make two packages out of the data list. One package of that data “you have to have” and the other of that which is “nice to have.” Throw the “nice to have” package out. Then make two packages out of the package left, that which you “absolutely have to have” and that which you just “have to have.” Get rid of the package of that which you just “have to have,” and stick with your “absolutely have to have.” This is what you need and it is usually as much as you can possibly do a decent job on in the time allotted and with the available manpower. We often say that a basin needs development, that a river needs this or that. That is completely wrong. The river needs nothing. It is the people who need something. The river is quite happy, but the people who live by it, who depend on this river for the various things it must do for them have needs and requirements, and it is for them that you plan. The third step is the determination of needs. We have to consider the data which we have been collecting on the environment and we must consider the present pattern of changes and project a pattern of change, to estimate these needs in specific terms. We use projections and forecasts here and must do so with a full understanding that they are not a trace of single determinable quantities, but an ever widening band the further into the future the projections reach. Needs must be stated in specific terms. They are not simple scaler quantities. Needs must be defined by their size, their location, the time they will occur and by the risk of failure one is willing to accept. For example, a 57

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

water supply need may be defined as such: Town X needs 100 mgd of water by the year 1985 and is willing to accept less than that for one week about once in ten years. The importance of the risk factor is often overlooked or subordinated to the other quantities defining the need. This is unfortunate, as complexity and cost of system to provide for the need may vary greatly with the risk factor selected. This leads to the next step, the determination of capabilities. This is an inventory of management measures. It is important that we compare these management measures very early in our work with the needs so that we can quickly eliminate those for which no need exists. We do not need solutions to non-existing problems. We can’t afford the time, the manpower, or the money to inventory all possibilities. But we cannot overlook any useful possibility. We must take a preliminary look at a large variety and number of management possibilities; eliminate quickly those which serve no discernable need and then after preliminary engineering analysis of still a relatively large number, screen out those which are clearly unfit due to exorbitant cost or on the basis of imperative social considerations. This can narrow down, to some manageable number, the items for which you make a preliminary analysis of benefits and costs in monetary terms as well as in intangibles. A lot of thought has been given to using computers to consider all of the possibilities in planning, and to compare all possible combinations. This sounds good, but there are too many variables and too many combinations for even the fastest computers. Man’s judgement is going to be necessary to eliminate a great number of the various possibilities and combinations to narrow the number down to some manageable size. The last two steps discussed will do this. The three steps following “Planning for Planning” (collection of data, needs analysis and determination of capabilities) are not steps that follow each other in sequence. They go on concurrently, and must go on concurrently if you want to finish the job. It takes about 5 or 6 years to study a major basin. If we would string out every bit and let each step follow the previous one, planning would probably take 15 or 20 years. By that time, the data which we had collected in the beginning, particularly on the dynamic side of the environment, would be obviously out of date and the plan worthless. Once the preliminary analysis has resulted in a manageable number of 58

THE DEVELOPMENT OF PLANNING METHODS

possibilities, the next step is the formulation of a tentative plan. Here we analyze the capabilities in the light of our requirements and use more refined economic analysis. This might be done by establishing an order of merit for various development measures, or it might be done with a formulation of a minimum cost system as a first approximation to a maximum benefit system or by some form of preliminary systems analyses such as a linear programming model. Regardless of the method, at the end of this stage we should have at least one reasonably defined plan. This plan or these plans should be reviewed against our broad objectives to see if we are really working in the right direction. If we are satisfied that the preliminary plan is the best we can develop at this stage of our study we can begin the detailed evaluation and refinement of the plan. Now is the time for detailed engineering studies including foundation, design and operation studies to arrive at reasonable estimates of cost and physical performance. Then, using the tools of operation research and system analysis, we test the plan and refine the details to a point where we can make recommendations. We must first analyze the physical performance; secondly, we must analyze the economic performance; lastly, the plan must stand the test of the comparison of the result with the objectives. This again closes the cycle of planning. The planner, however, has one more step to go, and a very important one. He has to report on his plan. Somebody else, usually in the political process, has to make the final decision. The planner has to explain to that person the plan. Such a report is not easy to write; it must be simple enough to be clear for the understanding of laymen and detailed enough for the review by expert.

59

Environmental Considerations in Potomac River Planning Harry E. Schwarz

Chief, Basin Planning Branch U.S. Army Engineer District, Baltimore Baltimore, Maryland

The definition of “Environment” as “The conditions or influences under which any person or thing lives or is developed” makes it quite clear that all civil engineering works are a part of “environmental engineering.” All engineering works are developed in answer to some problem of the surrounding environment and in turn, affect the environment by their presence and effectiveness. Water resources development is a king-size exercise in environmental engineering because it strongly affects many, if not most, physical and socioeconomic environmental factors. These effects spread over large areas and many people both individually and collectively. Traditionally, engineering has concerned itself predominantly with the physical aspects of the environment. The consideration of the economic factors other than costs and the social factors has been intuitive or based on judgment rather than through some formal consideration or planning technique. In the planning of public works, the economic and social factors have always been considered, but their consideration was often circumscribed by statutes, policy, or custom. The hallmark of comprehensive planning is the consideration of all factors as full-fledged partners in their influence on engineering decisions. The environmental factors which warranted specific consideration in our planning were: 1. Physical environmental factors: Climate Geology Meteorology Fauna Hydrology Flora Topography Resources Geo-morphology

61

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

2. Economic environmental factors: Population and population changes Business and industrial activity and their changes Social capital and its changes Technology and its changes 3. Social environment factors: Social customs History Local aspiration Local and national politics Trends in social changes

This list could well be supplemented by many more that might be worthy of consideration and such a list will vary from one study to another. The environment affected all phases of the planning effort for the Potomac River from its inception to the recommendations and in turn, any step in execution of the river basin plan will affect the environment. The Potomac River study was initiated in 1956 by a resolution which included these words “—with a view to preparation of a plan for flood control, recreation, and development and conservation of municipal and industrial water supply, and pollution abatement. In making this study the Corps of Engineers shall coordinate fully with the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River, and with the States of Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia.” This authorization itself was an act based on consideration of environmental factors. The physical influences of floods and droughts, the economic influence of water quantity and quality, and the social factors of recreation, esthetics and political reality caused this resolution to be introduced and to be worded this way. Early in the study a planning objective was selected on the basis of broad environmental factors such as the resource base of the area, economic policy, social aspirations, political boundaries, and technological development. The objective of the Potomac River Basin Study was to produce a water resources development plan to provide the optimum contribution to the economic and social well-being of the people, industry, and business and social institutions of this Basin. This optimum contribution would result from the proper consideration 62

THE DEVELOPMENT OF PLANNING METHODS

and weighing of three specific elements. These are: (1) the return on the investment made, (2) the utilization of the natural resources of the area, and (3) the distribution of the beneficial and adverse effects from the development both in time and geographical area. The physical and economic characteristics of the Basin, its economic growth potential, and consideration of the impact on its people impose limitations on the degree to which each of the three elements can be maximized. Strict adherence to any one of the objective elements would lead to an unbalanced or improper solution to the water resource problems and needs of the Potomac Basin. A balanced development, guided by the planning objectives, was determined to be the best overall solution to the problems and needs of the people of the Potomac River Basin. Balanced development recognizes:

1. That the many products of water resources development must be provided to insure and sustain the economic well-being and growth of the Region and its sub-areas. 2. That some purposes are best served by water resources development only.

3. That while significant benefits for other purposes can be secured from water resources development, other alternatives for those purposes may do the job equally well and should be considered.

The next major step in the Potomac Basin study, the determination of the amount of water and quality of water, the extent of flood control and the availability of recreation facilities desirable, was based entirely on an analysis of the environment. Besides the analyses of the hydrology of the basin, demographic and economic data to characterize the area today and 50 years hence were developed in an economic base survey prepared by the Department of Commerce’s Office of Business Economics. This study presented population data for the area as a whole and for five sub-areas; it also presented data on employment and income for the area, its subregions and for specific classes of industries and commerce. In development of the projections, it was assumed that water would not be a limiting factor of the development of the area. Figures 1 and 2 are examples of the data furnished by the economic survey. From these analyses of the physical and economic data and with the consideration of the social factors and the technology, needs estimates were 63

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

quantified for the four purposes of this study. Figures 3–6 show each one of the forms in which these needs estimates were prepared by the various Federal agencies cooperating in this study. The selection of specific development plans for final consideration was founded on the collection and analysis of basic data, study of the projected needs, establishment of the planning objectives and the development of possible solutions for the various needs. The complete fulfillment of all desires for water was considered neither feasible nor economically justified. Even a close approach to this would be prohibitively expensive. Consequently, minimum needs were established which any acceptable plan for the Potomac River Basin must generally meet. In establishing minimum needs the selection of risk levels is very important. Again the environment provides the guides for these decisions.

Fig. 1

64

T H E D E V E LO P M E N T O F P L A N N IN G M E TH O D S

Fig. 2 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS: 1965, 1985 POTOMAC RIVER SERVICE AREA

AND 2010

P ro je c tio n s A c tu a l 1985 2010 1965 1957 ( M illio n s o f 1957 d o lla r s ) P ersonal i ncome .................... . . . . . . . . .

6 ,3 5 0

8.300

16.000

3 5,500

(Thousands) P o p u la tio n and households: P o p u la tio n ............................................... Households .......................... ..

2 ,8 2 7 789

3,290

4 ,9 5 0

886

1.371

7,3 0 0 2 ,1 8 8

(Thousands) Employment: A l l in d u s tr ie s , t o t a l ...................... Commodity-producing in d u s tr ie s , t o t a l ...................................... .. A g r ic u ltu r e .................................... N o n -a g ric u ltu re ........................... M a n u fa c tu rin g , t o t a l . . . . . . Food and kin d red products Chemicals and a l l i e d products ............................. A l l m etals and m etal * m anufacturers . . . . . . . . . A l l o th e r m anufacturers . A l l o th e r commodityproducing in d u s trie s . . . . Noncommodity-producing i n d u s tr ie s , t o t a l ....................... Trade ................................................. Government (F e d e ra l, S ta te , and L o c a l) ......................... A l l o th e r ............................. ...........

SOURCE:

1,2 1 7

1,380

2,035

3,050

311

380

525

770

68 243 154 15

63 317 200 18

49 476 310 26

41 729 475 38

12

13

20

35

43 84

59 110

106 158

170 232

89

117

166

254

906 197

1,000 230

1,510 375

2,2 8 0 600

443 266

460

600

310

535

800 880

Economic Base Survey o f Potomac R iv e r S e rv ic e A rea, APPENDIX L

65

HARRY E. SCHWARZ AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Fig. 3 - Water Supply Needs - 2010

MILLION GALLONS PER DAY

66

ON -J

7000 9100 18500 14800 6500 31200 49100 37300 14700 4900 24300 10900 56000 490000

94000 12100 4400 600

188000 219200 6700 7700 400 229800 22300 264100 23800 12000 302900 87600 130900 19800 23400 162300 32500 502900 999900 11900 15700 28200 22500 8800 47500 66800 49200 19800 7800 33600 18100 84700 630000

188000 21900 6400 900

282000 317000 8900 10400 500 331000 28900 375200 30700 15800 425800 108100 160300 24400 29100 199400 45100 678800 1,175800

16700 20300 36900 29000 11100 61000 81700 59700 24400 9800 41300 24600 109700 655000

282000 31700 8700 1300

Assumes 807. & 85% treatment for 1985 & 2010 respectively in upper basin and 85X & 90% treatment respectively at Washington.

North Branch at Luke, Md. 94000 North Branch at Mouth 121400 South Branch at Moorefield, W. Va. 4500 South Branch at Mouth 5000 Cacapon River at Mouth 200 Potomac at Hancock, Md. 128100 Conococheague Cr., conlf. of WBranch 14100 Potomac at Williamsport, Md. 150900 Antietam Creek at Hagerstown, Md. 15700 Opequon Creek at Martinsburg, W.Va. 8700 Potomac at Shepardstown, W. Va. 177300 S. Frk. Shenandoah at Elkton, Va. 62100 S. Frk. Shenandoah at Front Royal,Va. 95100 N. Frk. Shenandoah at Broadway, Va. 14700 N. Frk. Shenandoah at Strasburg, Va. 16200 Shenandoah at Mouth 116500 Monocacy River at Frederick, Md. 18900 Potomac River above Great Falls 315500 Potomac Estuary below Washington 700500

Stream and Location

2010 1985 1960 Load added Load Load added Load Load Load added above remaining above remaining remaining above at Location Location at Location Location at Location! Location

(All loads in terms of oxygen demand population equivalents)

WASTE LOADS AND ASSIMILATION AT SELECTED LOCATIONS ^ Under natural dependable flow conditions receiving treated effluent.—

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