Globalization Policies and Issues [1 ed.] 9781621001379, 9781611229301

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Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

GLOBAL ECONOMIC STUDIES

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GLOBALIZATION POLICIES AND ISSUES

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GLOBAL ECONOMIC STUDIES

GLOBALIZATION POLICIES AND ISSUES

BRANDON J. SHERMAN

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

EDITOR

Nova Science Publishers, Inc. New York

Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Copyright © 2011 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic, tape, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise without the written permission of the Publisher. For permission to use material from this book please contact us: Telephone 631-231-7269; Fax 631-231-8175 Web Site: http://www.novapublishers.com NOTICE TO THE READER The Publisher has taken reasonable care in the preparation of this book, but makes no expressed or implied warranty of any kind and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. No liability is assumed for incidental or consequential damages in connection with or arising out of information contained in this book. The Publisher shall not be liable for any special, consequential, or exemplary damages resulting, in whole or in part, from the readers’ use of, or reliance upon, this material. Any parts of this book based on government reports are so indicated and copyright is claimed for those parts to the extent applicable to compilations of such works.

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Independent verification should be sought for any data, advice or recommendations contained in this book. In addition, no responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property arising from any methods, products, instructions, ideas or otherwise contained in this publication. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information with regard to the subject matter covered herein. It is sold with the clear understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in rendering legal or any other professional services. If legal or any other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent person should be sought. FROM A DECLARATION OF PARTICIPANTS JOINTLY ADOPTED BY A COMMITTEE OF THE AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION AND A COMMITTEE OF PUBLISHERS. Additional color graphics may be available in the e-book version of this book.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Globalization policies and issues / editor, Brandon J. Sherman. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-6-- (H%RRN) 1. Globalization--Economic aspects. 2. International economic relations. 3. International trade. I. Sherman, Brandon J. HF1365.G58 2010 337--dc22 2010047014

Published by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. New York

Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

CONTENTS Preface

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Chapter 1

vii Globalization, Offshoring, and Multinational Companies: What Are the Questions, and How Well Are We Doing in Answering Them? Ralph Kozlow

1

Chapter 2

U.S. Agricultural Policy Response to WTO Cotton Decision Randy Schnepf

17

Chapter 3

Dispute Settlement in the World Trade Organization: An Overview Jeanne J. Grimmett

25

Chapter 4

Trade Remedies: A Primer Vivian C. Jones

33

Chapter 5

WTO Doha Round: The Agricultural Negotiations Charles E. Hanrahan and Randy Schnepf

61

Chapter 6

Trade Preferences for Developing Countries and the WTO Jeanne J. Grimmett

95

Chapter 7

Financial Globalization, Crises, and Contagion Sergio L. Schmukler, Pablo Zoido and Marina Halac

Chapter 8

Neoliberal Globalization and Politics of Institutional Change in Turkey: Towards a ‘Strategic-Effective State’? Sadik Ünay

103

123

Chapter 9

Globalization, Religion, and Nonviolence K. K. Kuriakose

Chapter 10

An Overview of Computational Methods in Forecasting Tourism Demand: Recommendations and Future Research Marcos Álvarez-Díaz and Jaume Rosselló-Nadal

177

Shifting Locus of Influence in the Labor Union Movement: Negotiations in International Framework Agreements Niklas Egels-Zandén

199

Chapter 11

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vi Chapter 12

Contents Trade Policy in the Globalizing World: Policy Modeling and Simulations of Futures Akira Onishi

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Index

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225 355

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PREFACE Globalization describes a process by which regional economies, societies and cultures have become integrated through a global network of communication, transportation and trade. However, as a result this integration, various policies and issues come about. This book examines a variety of issues related to globalization and the policies which are put into place due to this global network. Chapter 1 - Globalization has placed new demands on statistical agencies to provide the information necessary to inform policy in today’s increasingly interdependent world economy. This phenomenon has manifested itself in the interdependence of financial markets, the increasing role of multinational corporations (MNCs), the transfer of technology, the increasing dependence of domestic markets on foreign trade, increasing trade in services, and greater interdependence of monetary, fiscal, investment, and regulatory policy. Indeed, this interdependence in policy has led to increased demands for harmonization in world statistical standards. These have led to efforts by countries and international organizations to more closely adhere to international economic statistical standards; the updating of the System of National Accounts, the International Monetary Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual, and the OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment; the issuance of the OECD Handbook on Globalization Indicators; development of international data dissemination standards; and the development and issuance of a series of handbooks ranging from international trade in services to tourism. Chapter 2 - In a dispute settlement case (DS267) brought by Brazil against certain aspects of the U.S. cotton program, a WTO Appellate Body (AB) recommended in March 2005 that the United States remove certain “prohibited subsidies” by July 21, 2005, and remove the adverse effects resulting from certain “actionable subsidies” by September 21, 2005. When the United States failed to meet these deadlines, Brazil claimed the right to retaliate against $3 billion in U.S. exports to Brazil based on the prohibited subsidies, and proposed $1 billion in retaliation based on the actionable subsidies. The United States objected to these retaliation amounts and requested WTO arbitration on the matter. However, in mid-2005 the United States and Brazil reached a procedural agreement to temporarily suspend retaliation proceedings. On August 21, 2006, Brazil submitted a request for a WTO compliance panel to review whether the United States has fully complied with panel and AB rulings. The United States blocked the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) from approving Brazil’s request on August 31, 2006; however, Brazil is expected to make a second request (which the United States will be unable to block) at the DSB meeting set for September 28, 2006. If a

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compliance panel finds that the United States has not fully complied with the AB rulings, Brazil could ask the WTO arbitration panel to resume its work. Although the United States has already complied with a portion of the AB’s recommendation by eliminating the Step 2 program (August 1, 2006), additional permanent modifications to U.S. farm programs may still be needed to fully comply with the WTO ruling on “actionable subsidies.”. Chapter 3 - Dispute resolution in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is carried out under the WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU), whose rules and procedures apply to virtually all WTO agreements. The DSU provides for consultations between disputing parties, panels and appeals, and possible compensation or retaliation if a defending party does not comply with an adverse WTO decision by a given date. Automatic establishment of panels, adoption of reports, and authorization of requests to retaliate, along with deadlines for various stages of the dispute process and improved multilateral surveillance and enforcement of WTO obligations, are aimed at producing a more expeditious and effective system than that which existed under the GATT. To date, 349 WTO complaints have been filed, slightly more than half of which involve the United States as a complaining party or defendant. Expressing dissatisfaction with WTO dispute settlement results in the trade remedy area, Congress directed the executive branch to address dispute settlement issues in WTO negotiations in its grant of trade promotion authority to the President in 2002 (P.L. 107-210). WTO Members had been negotiating DSU revisions in the now-suspended WTO Doha Round, though a draft agreement was not produced. S. 817 (Stabenow), S. 1542 (Stabenow), S. 2317 (Baucus), and H.R. 4186 (Camp) would each establish a new position in the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to help the USTR investigate and prosecute WTO disputes. S. 2467 (Grassley) would make the USTR General Counsel a confirmable position expressly responsible for WTO dispute settlement. H.R. 4733 (Rangel) and H.R. 5043 (Cardin) would create new congressional entities with functions related to WTO disputes. Chapter 4 - The United States and many of its trading partners use laws known as trade remedies to mitigate the adverse impact of various trade practices on domestic industries and workers. U.S. antidumping laws (19 U.S.C. 1673 et seq.) authorize the imposition of duties if (1) the International Trade Administration (ITA) of the Department of Commerce determines that foreign merchandise is being, or likely to be sold in the United States at less than fair value, and (2) the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) determines that an industry in the United States is materially injured or threatened with material injury, or that the establishment of an industry is materially retarded, due to imports of that merchandise. A similar statute (19 U.S.C. 1671 et seq.) authorizes the imposition of countervailing duties if the ITA finds that the government of a country or any public entity has provided a subsidy on the manufacture, production, or export of the merchandise, and the ITC determines injury. U.S. safeguard laws (19 U.S.C. 2251 et seq.) authorize the President to provide import relief from injurious surges of imports resulting from fairly competitive trade from all countries. Other safeguard laws authorize relief for import surges from communist countries (19 U.S.C. 2436) and from China (19 U.S.C. 2451). In each case, the ITC conducts an investigation, forwards recommendations to the President, and the President may act on the recommendation, modify it, or do nothing. WTO dispute settlement panels and Appellate Body rulings found that the United States is in violation of its WTO obligations with regard to two U.S. trade remedy laws — the Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset (CDSOA, also known as the Byrd Amendment) and

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the Antidumping Act of 1916, which was subsequently repealed in P.L. 108-429. In the 109th Congress, S. 1932 (signed by the President on February 8, 2006, P.L. 109-171) repealed the CDSOA while allowing disbursements under the act to continue for merchandise entering the United States before October 1, 2007. Other trade remedy-related legislation, including H.R. 3283 (English, passed House July 27, 2005), S. 1421 (Collins), and H.R. 3306 (Rangel) seek to modify AD and CVD provisions in order to target alleged circumvention of trade remedy duties, particularly on subject imports from China. Other bills containing similar provisions include S. 593 (Collins) and its companion bill H.R. 1216 (English). Section 3 of H.R. 1493 (Tim Ryan), defines manipulation of foreign exchange rates as a countervailable subsidy. H.R. 4217 (Knollenberg) seeks to allow U.S. manufacturers to participate in AD and CVD investigations as interested parties. H.R. 5529 (English), seeks to make modifications to safeguard laws, as well as amending AD and CVD legislation. This report explains, first, U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty statutes and investigations. Second, it describes safeguard statutes and investigative procedures. Third, it briefly presents trade-remedy related legislation in the 109th Congress. The appendix provides a chart outlining U.S. trade remedy statutes, major actors, and the effects of these laws. Chapter 5 - On July 24, 2006, the WTO’s Director General announced the indefinite suspension of further negotiations in the Doha Development Agenda or Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The principal cause of the suspension was that a core group of WTO member countries — the United States, the European Union (EU), Brazil, India, Australia, and Japan — known as the G-6 had reached an impasse over specific methods to achieve the broad aims of the round for agricultural trade: substantial reductions in tradedistorting domestic subsidies, elimination of export subsidies, and substantially increased market access for agricultural products. The WTO is unique among the various fora of international trade negotiations in that it brings together its entire 149-country membership to negotiate a common set of rules to govern international trade in agricultural products, industrial goods, and services. Agreement across such a large assemblage of participating nations and range of issues contributes significantly to consistency and harmonization of trade rules across countries. Regarding agriculture, because policy reform is addressed across three broadly inclusive fronts — export competition, domestic support, and market access — WTO negotiations provide a framework for give and take to help foster mutual agreement. As a result, the Doha Round represents an unusual opportunity for addressing most policy-induced distortions in international agricultural markets. Doha Round negotiators were operating under a deadline effectively imposed by the expiration of U.S. Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which permits the President to negotiate trade deals and present them to Congress for expedited consideration. To meet congressional notification requirements under TPA, an agreement would have to have been completed by the end of 2006. That now appears unlikely. TPA expires on June 30, 2007, and most trade experts and officials think that the authority would not be renewed. As a result of the suspension of the negotiations, a major source of pressure for U.S. farm policy change will have dissipated. The current farm bill expires in 2007, and many were looking to a Doha Round agreement to require changes in U.S. farm subsidies to make them more compatible with world trade rules. The option of extending the current farm law appears strengthened by the indefinite suspension of the Doha talks. The United States must still meet obligations under existing WTO agricultural agreements, which limit trade-distorting

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spending to $19.1 billion annually. Some trade analysts think that, now that the Round has been suspended, there could be an increase in litigation by WTO member countries that allege they are harmed by U.S. farm subsidies. This report assesses the current status of agricultural negotiations in the Doha Round; traces the developments leading up to the December 2005 Hong Kong Ministerial; examines the major agricultural negotiating proposals; discusses the potential effects of a successful Doha Round agreement on global trade, income, U.S. farm policy, and U.S. agriculture; and provides background on the WTO, the Doha Round, the key negotiating groups, and a chronology of key events relevant to the agricultural negotiations. Chapter 6 - World Trade Organization (WTO) Members must grant immediate and unconditional most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment to the products of other Members with respect to tariffs and other trade-related measures. Programs such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), under which developed countries grant preferential tariff rates to developing country products, are facially inconsistent with this obligation because they accord goods of some countries more favorable tariff treatment than that accorded to goods of other WTO Members. Because such programs have been viewed as trade-expanding, however, Contracting Parties to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) provided a legal basis for one-way tariff preferences and certain other preferential arrangements in a 1979 decision known as the Enabling Clause. In 2004, the WTO Appellate Body ruled that the Clause allows developed countries to offer different treatment to developing countries, but only if identical treatment is available to all similarly situated GSP beneficiaries. Where WTO Members’ preference programs have provided expanded benefits, the WTO has on occasion waived Members’ WTO obligations. A number of trade preference bills have been introduced in the 109th Congress, including proposed extensions of the GSP and Andean preference programs, each of which is set to expire in 2006. Among these are H.R. 5070, which would extend the GSP and Andean preferences for one year and expand and extend textile benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA); H.R. 6076 and S. 3904, which would extend until 2008 the GSP, Andean preferences, and a thirdcountry fabric provision for lesser-developed beneficiaries expiring in 2007; and H.R. 6142, which would extend the GSP and the AGOA third-country fabric provision until 2008 and expand textile and apparel benefits for Haiti. Chapter 7 - Different forces and potential benefits are pushing towards increasing financial globalization. However, globalization can carry important risks. This paper reviews the literature on crises and contagion in the context of financial globalization. Countries with weak fundamentals become more prone to crises when they liberalize their financial sectors. Globalization can also lead to crises in countries with sound fundamentals, due to imperfections in financial markets or external factors. Moreover, open economies are exposed to contagion via different channels such as real links, financial links, and herding behavior. Still, in the long run, the net effects of financial globalization are likely to be positive. The main challenge for policymakers is thus to manage the process as to take advantage of the opportunities, while minimizing the risks. Chapter 8 - The political, economic and socio-cultural forces of globalization create new opportunities as well as challenges for states and policy makers in conjunction with their relative positioning within global political economy and security structures. However, the orthodox neoliberal discourse on development and economic policy making has promoted stereotyped responses to substantially diverse local and regional socioeconomic problems,

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Preface

xi

and sought to enforce them through international financial institutions and institutional restructuring. In this context, the State Planning Organization in Turkey represents a striking example of institutional transformation under the strain of global discourses on development in the sense that it was formed and promoted during the heyday of structuralism, and became subject to a systematic policy of marginalization from the main policy network owing to the multifaceted pressures of neoliberal globalization. Chapter 9 - We are living in a tide of “globalization” that reaches to the urban and rural humans alike, to all corners of the earth, for pro or con, without exception. The process of globalization enhances technological culture where everything is directed to accumulate wealth, and that humanity globally experiences immense change and upheaval in social consensus and is being reshaped with new fabrics. The technological culture and marketbased globalization fail to satisfy the full spectrum of human needs, as well as satisfy emotional, spiritual and creative dimensions of human aspiration. On the other hand, this consensus of economic development and the process of globalization deepen material scarcity and poverty that translate directly into human suffering. The concepts and behavioural patterns that impact religions and religious experiences of people around the world are rapidly changing. One irony at this religious and historical turning point of humanity is that it failed to understand the essence or core values of religions. Instead of receiving the values and rich heritages of religions it is being used for vested interest, and such a consensus leads many to involve violence. Religions are also used for finding justification for war and violence. Thus, terrorism and violence exist in the modern arena and challenge the peaceful existence of people around the globe. Chapter 10 - The rapid expansion of international tourism has motivated growing interest in forecasting studies. The developments in tourism forecasting methodologies fall into several streams among which the computational methods seem to be capable to beat the traditional ones. This study reviews the principal applications in tourism demand forecasting of different techniques based on Computer Sciences and underlines inappropriate methodological procedures carried out in previous research. Furthermore, it also suggests potential lines of future research such as the use of new forecasting methods (Evolutionary Neural Networks and Data-Fusion) or the possible existence of chaotic dynamics in tourist time series. Chapter 11 - In the ongoing globalization of business, transnational industrial relations systems are emerging as complements to the traditional national systems. Integral to the emergent transnational systems are International Framework Agreements (IFAs). This chapter shows that a previously unrecognised key aspect of IFAs is that they shift the locus of influence in the union movement from national unions to either global union federations or enterprise level unions. Based on a study of an IFA signing process, this chapter shows how this tension between different levels of the union movement affected both the IFA signing process and the IFA content. The outcome in the studied case was that the locus of influence was decentralized to the enterprise level union. This result challenges the prevalent argument that IFAs centralize influence to global union federations. Instead, this chapter proposes that the locus of influence will be decentralized to the enterprise level when: i) there is a trustful corporate-enterprise level union relation, ii) there is a distrustful corporate-global level union relation, and iii) the corporate driver for adopting an IFA is to foster its relations with its enterprise level union. On the other hand, the locus of influence will be centralized to the global level when: i) there is a distrustful corporate-enterprise level union relation, ii) there is

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a trustful corporate-global level union relation, and iii) the corporate driver for adopting an IFA is to improve its external legitimacy. Chapter 12 - In the 21st century it is expected that “global syndromes “and or global imbalances/ disparities will be appeared in the human society. The global issues seem likely to confront with every country around the world co-existing on the planet Earth. As a matter of fact, trade policy in the globalizing world should be modified in coping with such historical trends for sustainable global economy. The FUGI (Futures of Global Interdependence) global modeling system has been developed as a scientific policy modeling and simulation tool of providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy coordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the global economy under the constraints of rapidly changing global environment. The FUGI global model M200 classifies the world into 200 countries/regions where each national/regional model is globally interdependent through international trade, oil prices, export/import prices, financial flows, ODA, private foreign direct investment, exchange rates, stock market prices and global policy coordination etc. The purpose of this article is twofold, namely to provide information on the alternative futures of fluctuated global economy by global model simulations as well as appropriate trade policies for sustainable development of the interdependent global economy. It is worth noting that not only appropriate harmonized adjustments of international trade but wise cosmic mind to promote human solidarity with the ever changing nature will be desirable to adjust orbit of the fluctuated global economy.

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Chapter 1

GLOBALIZATION, OFFSHORING, AND MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES: WHAT ARE THE QUESTIONS, AND HOW WELL ARE WE DOING IN ANSWERING THEM? Ralph Kozlow International Economics U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

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I. INTRODUCTION Globalization has placed new demands on statistical agencies to provide the information necessary to inform policy in today’s increasingly interdependent world economy. This phenomenon has manifested itself in the interdependence of financial markets, the increasing role of multinational corporations (MNCs), the transfer of technology, the increasing dependence of domestic markets on foreign trade, increasing trade in services, and greater interdependence of monetary, fiscal, investment, and regulatory policy. Indeed, this interdependence in policy has led to increased demands for harmonization in world statistical standards. These have led to efforts by countries and international organizations to more closely adhere to international economic statistical standards; the updating of the System of National Accounts, the International Monetary Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual, and the OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment; the issuance of the OECD Handbook on Globalization Indicators; development of international data dissemination standards; and the development and issuance of a series of handbooks ranging from international trade in services to tourism. Much of this work has involved filling gaps in coverage required by changes in the economy using conventional data collection methods and the existing structure of the national accounts. Providing the information needed for evaluating the economic impact of MNCs, however, normally requires the development of direct surveys of companies that capture data on the overseas activities of their foreign affiliates. It also may require the use of alternative estimation methods. Despite the cost to statistical agencies and the burden imposed on business respondents by surveys, the sheer size, growth, and impact of multinational

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companies have motivated a number of countries to develop, or consider developing, data based on surveys of MNCs. The United States is the world's largest direct investor and also the world’s largest recipient of inward direct investment. At yearend 2004, the value of the U.S. direct investment position abroad at current-cost was $2.4 trillion, and the value of the foreign direct investment position in the United States at current-cost was $1.7 trillion. In 2003, U.S. exports and imports of goods associated with U.S. parent companies, their foreign affiliates, and U.S. affiliates of foreign companies totaled nearly $1.2 trillion and accounted for more than half of U.S. imports and over two-thirds of U.S. exports. These companies employed about 35 million people in the United States and abroad in 2003 (25 million were in the United States, of a total workforce of about 130 million). The combined gross product of U.S. parents and U.S. affiliates accounted for more than one-fifth of the U.S. gross domestic product for private industries. Recent estimates by the United Nations illustrate the significance of MNCs worldwide [1]. The U.N. estimates worldwide sales by foreign affiliates in 2003 at $17 trillion, or nearly double the size of world exports. By comparison, in 1990, sales by foreign affiliates were only about 25 percent larger than world exports. Over the period 1990-2004, the world stock of outward direct investment increased an average of 12 percent per year, from $1.8 trillion to $9.7 trillion, compared to an annual growth rate of world current-dollar GDP of 4.2 percent. In 2004, foreign affiliates accounted for one-third of world exports. By any measure, it is clear that MNCs are large and important, and that their role and influence has expanded as they have rapidly grown in recent years. Coincidental with this growth, the questions that policymakers, the academic community, and others are asking about MNCs have also become more numerous and varied. Public awareness of the offshoring of services has recently led to renewed focus on MNCs and the decisions they make in determining where and by whom their business functions will be performed. The United States has what is widely recognized as the most extensive statistical program in the world for tracking the activities of MNCs, and it is one that we continually strive to improve. In this regard, to be able to analyze questions about MNCs or offshoring and address concerns, the U.S. Congress has recently provided incremental funds for the collection of new information, and for the development, acceleration, and/or modernization of presentations of this information. This paper identifies key questions that are being asked about the role and impact of MNCs and then reviews the types of statistics that are required to answer those questions. The paper goes on to assess whether the statistics collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are adequate to address those questions. In so doing, it highlights questions that cannot be readily answered just through data collections but that also require the use of economic theory, modeling techniques, and statistical inference. Finally, it identifies steps that might be considered to address data weaknesses and to help policy makers and other data users better answer the important questions that they now are asking about the impact of MNCs.

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Globalization, Offshoring, and Multinational Companies

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II. WHAT QUESTIONS ARE BEING ASKED ABOUT MNCS? The following summary attempts to lay out the key questions, provide the answers yielded by U.S. data on MNCs, and identify some of the remaining unanswered questions and the additional data that may be needed. The questions are largely drawn from academic research and policy studies. It is, of course, impossible to develop a complete list of all the questions that people are asking about MNCs, but it is possible to identify key questions that are being asked by leading policymakers, researchers, and others who have extensive knowledge and experience with issues concerning MNCs, globalization, and offshoring issues more generally.

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A. Brief History Before attempting to evaluate how well we may be doing in answering the key questions, it may be informative to put BEA’s current data collection efforts and studies in an historical context. Some information on direct investment was collected by the U.S. Government in the early 1900s, but systematic data collection did not begin until around 1950. At that time, some data on the overall operations of parent companies and affiliates began to be collected, but the focus was on the data needed to compile the U.S. balance of payments accounts; the overall operations data tended to be viewed as supplements to the balance-of-payments data and were used mainly to analyze the balance-of-payments effects of direct investment, such as the extent to which production abroad by the foreign affiliates of U.S. companies substituted for, or was complementary to, U.S. exports. Until about the mid-1970s, much greater emphasis was placed on the data for U.S. direct investment abroad (outward investment), which, at the time, was far greater than foreign direct investment in the United States (inward investment). With the continued growth in outward investment and with the acceleration in the growth of inward investment in the 1970s and 1980s, interest in the non-balance-of-payments aspects of direct investment (such as its effects on employment, technology transfer, and domestic production) increased correspondingly, and equal emphasis came to be placed on collecting data on investment in both directions. In response, BEA expanded its data on the overall operations of U.S. parent companies and their foreign affiliates and instituted new surveys to collect data on the overall operations of the U.S. affiliates of foreign companies. As concern over the rapid growth in inward investment increased during the late 1980s, Congress and the general public demanded more information to assess the impact of inward investment in particular industries and states. This call led to efforts to link BEA’s enterpriselevel data on direct investment to establishment-level data from the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, to obtain those agencies’ more detailed data by industry and state for the foreign-owned U.S. companies that report to BEA. This project represented one of a number of improvements that have been made simply by better utilizing existing data, without imposing additional reporting burdens on the business community. Other major data improvement projects that did not impose additional respondent burden were the development of estimates of affiliate value added; the development of a supplemental, ownership-based

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framework of the current account; and BEA’s revaluations of direct investment from historical cost, or book value, to estimates based on current market prices. Today, BEA provides policymakers and researchers with a wide array of MNC data items cross-classified by country, industry, and state. BEA’s surveys of direct investment include employment data, RandD expenditures, trade in goods and services, and selected financial data [2].Extensive data at aggregate and detailed levels are provided to the public free of charge on BEA’s Web site at . While BEA must maintain strict confidentiality of micro-level data, a special program allows access to micro-level data for distinguished researchers working in the area of foreign direct investment or trade in services. BEA has conducted significant methodological and conceptual work, which has led to the collection of additional data items and the refinement of concepts. In addition, BEA has been actively involved in work throughout the world, in clarifying concepts and in exploring the borderline between direct investment and other types of investment. For example, staff have actively contributed to the development of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Manual of Statistics on International Trade in Services, the Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment, and the System of National Accounts. In addition, they actively participate in various international workgroups, examining such issues as direct investment, nonperforming loans, the measurement of software trade, the measurement of insurance services, and various other measurement and statistical issues. In these ways, BEA has responded to the need for more relevant information for use in analyzing and understanding the role of MNCs in the globalization process. Throughout the history of its data collection program, BEA has taken steps to improve the accuracy and timeliness of its data. However, in this era of globalization, working to improve the accuracy and timeliness of direct investment data is no longer sufficient. Comparability of the data, both to data on the domestic economy and to the data of other countries, is also necessary [3]. Also, to minimize respondent burden and maximize data utility, it is essential to organize and enhance the data that are obtained [4]. In recent years, BEA, its counterpart agencies in other countries, and international organizations have paid increasing attention to improving the comparability of MNC data across countries and, for a given country, to data for the domestic economy to which the data might be compared.

B. What Are the Questions, and How Well Are We Answering Them? The United States has made major strides in providing information that has been used to answer many of the key questions being asked about globalization. Some of these key questions are: How do MNCs affect output, incomes, and employment in home and host economies? Do multinationals export jobs? How do they affect wages? [5] A frequently expressed fear is that multinational companies will shift production offshore to lower wage countries, thereby exporting jobs and exerting downward pressure on wages back home. BEA’s data suggest that multinationals generally invest abroad for access to markets rather than low wages and that the share of their activities conducted abroad has not increased appreciably over time. According to BEA’s data, worldwide value added, capital

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expenditures, and employment of U.S. MNCs remained concentrated in the United States in 2003. U.S. operations’ share of the worldwide value added, capital expenditures, and employment of U.S. MNCs in 2003 was 74 percent, 74 percent, and 72 percent, respectively, down somewhat from 1977 when the shares were 75 percent, 79 percent, and 78 percent [6]. These shares have remained relatively stable over this period of rapid globalization. Evidence also suggests that the wage rates of parent companies are not significantly affected by the wage rates of their foreign affiliates [7]. In addition, studies suggest that output in both the home and host countries is positively correlated with new direct investments, and that foreign direct investment may lead to knowledge “spillovers” with other firms in the host economy. The impact on host and home country employment from new direct investments is unclear [8]. However, this lack of clarity has less to do with absence of data on employment than it does with disentangling the impact of new foreign direct investment from macroeconomic and industry specific factors that also affect domestic employment. This point is revisited later in this paper.

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What determines the location of production by multinationals? BEA’s data on foreign direct investment has helped refute one of the major fallacies about multinationals, which is that the most important determinant of the location of their overseas investment is access to low wage labor. Indeed, the most important determinant seems to be access to large and prosperous markets. Companies tend to invest for purposes of selling goods and services rather than for gaining access to low-cost labor and other resources for producing goods and services. Two-thirds of U.S. direct investment abroad is in highincome countries. Interestingly, in manufacturing, 80 percent of overseas affiliates’ production is in high-wage, developed countries, where investment is stimulated by a number of non-wage factors, including access to markets; production of products designed for the local market; local service, support, sales, and advertising activities; tax incentives; or reduced transport costs. How do MNCs respond to barriers to trade and investment? To tax and investment incentives? As suggested above, the major determinant of foreign direct investment has been access to developed economies with large and growing markets. Tax laws and investment incentives were found to be of secondary importance. More recently, however, the proliferation of investment incentives and changes in U.S. tax law may have increased the importance of tax laws and investment incentives [9]. BEA’s data show that U.S. parent companies are increasingly using holding company affiliates within their organizational structure. In 2004, investment in holding companies accounted for one-third of U.S. direct investment abroad, compared to 9 percent in 1982 [10]. These holding companies typically represent a new, intermediate layer of direct investment, created between the direct investor and its affiliates in manufacturing or other industries located in third countries. One of the reasons why MNCs use holding companies is to take advantage of favorable tax incentives. BEA’s data do show a concentration of holding-company affiliates in developed and developing foreign countries where the income tax rate is relatively low.

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Ralph Kozlow How do MNCs contribute to cross-border transfers of technology?

One of the major concerns expressed about multinationals is that they erode the U.S. technological advantage either by U.S. companies transferring technology to their overseas investment partners or by foreign companies buying U.S. high-technology companies to gain access to U.S. technology and know-how. Unfortunately, technology transfers are very hard to define and measure. Technology transfer may occur simply by an employee traveling to an overseas affiliate and discussing technology or through a series of E-mails rather than through an explicit royalty or licensing payment that would show up in companies’ financial accounting statements or foreign direct investment operations reports. By default, research has tended to focus on identifying and categorizing the U.S. industries in which foreign companies invest and how much they spend on research and development. As it turns out, they mainly invest in the same industries as their parents, and their investments are only slightly more concentrated in high-technology industries than those of all U.S. companies [11]. Research and development activity has grown faster within foreign-owned firms than in all U.S. firms, but this may simply reflect the propensity of these firms—like U.S. multinationals—to invest in more concentrated, more capital intensive, higher productivity, higher wage, and higher technology industries. Additional data development work by the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis may shed more light on this topic [12].

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How do multinationals affect trade flows and trade balances? Although multinationals’ trade accounted for more than half of U.S. goods imports and over two-thirds of U.S. goods exports in 2003, it is not clear what the impact of overseas investment by multinationals is on total U.S. trade or the U.S. trade balance. Many would suggest that overseas investment expands the overall volume of trade and production rather than substituting foreign for domestic production. Indeed, the share of U.S. multinationals’ total production occurring abroad shows no upward trend. BEA studies do, however, show that, although U.S. affiliates of foreign companies do purchase most intermediate inputs domestically, they are more reliant on imports than other U.S. firms [13]. In addition, some of the industries associated with large imports represent wholesaling operations in which affiliates were established to facilitate the distribution of goods produced by their foreign parent companies. In several cases, such affiliates have subsequently been replaced by, or have evolved into, manufacturing affiliates, which over time may progressively rely more on their own value added and on locally procured intermediate inputs, and less on imports from their foreign parents. Another perspective on the contribution of multinationals to the U.S. economy can be seen by looking at BEA’s supplemental ownership-based measures of the U.S. current account. These measures highlight the large overseas sales of U.S. and foreign companies and their relation to U.S. trade and investment income [14]. Do MNCs invest abroad mainly to achieve efficiency in vertical integration, by locating different stages of production in different countries, or does their international expansion tend to be more horizontal in nature, with essentially identical processes replicated in multiple countries?

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Several studies have concluded that the bulk of multinationals’ investment is horizontal in nature [15]. Once again, it is access to large and growing markets—rather than access to low wage labor for labor intensive stages of the production process or on-site access to raw materials for initial processing—that is driving foreign direct investment. By locating duplicate facilities in each country or region, companies can provide integrated sales, advertising, production, inventory control, and delivery of their product tailored to the needs of the individual markets. Also, BEA’s data show that some investment in developing countries is driven by market access and not factor cost differences, as evidenced by the high share of sales to the local market by affiliates in developing countries. Nonetheless, recent studies have suggested that vertical integration and access to low cost foreign labor may be gaining in importance [16]. How do foreign-owned companies differ from domestically owned companies? At one time, especially during the wave of Japanese investment in the early 1990s, there was concern about foreign companies’ operating practices, especially on the part of organized labor. Would the U.S. affiliates of these companies pay lower wages, hire lower-skilled workers, or use their U.S. operations as a conduit, investing less in capital equipment and performing less research and development, leaving those functions for the home office overseas? BEA’s data show that foreign-owned U.S. companies actually tend to pay higher than average wages, but after controlling for differences in industry mix, they pay roughly the same wages as U.S. firms in the same industries [17]. Foreign investors also tend to invest in U.S. industries that are relatively capital intensive and to fund and perform large amounts of research and development.

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How much of a particular domestic industry is owned by foreign companies? BEA and the Bureau of the Census have linked BEA’s enterprise-level data on foreign direct investment in the United States to the Census Bureau’s data on all U.S. establishments, and this data set has resulted in detailed estimates showing the proportion of domestic industries that are owned by foreign companies [18]. Also, in a parallel project, BEA data were linked to data of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 1989-1992 covering a number of employment-related variables, including data on the occupational structure of foreign-owned U.S. manufacturing establishments. These linked data sets provide information on the share of each domestic industry (at a detailed level of industry classification) that is owned by foreign companies. These are but a few of the many questions that have been posed about foreign direct investment. As can be seen, the existing data have been useful in answering these questions to a significant extent. However, as detailed below, there also are many questions that have not been as fully or clearly answered. Some questions that will require additional data or research to fully answer are:

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Ralph Kozlow

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How many jobs have been offshored? The offshoring debate has led to substantial interest in data on the number of jobs that have shifted from the United States to other countries. However, it is important to recognize that this question, and some other commonly asked questions about MNCs and offshoring, cannot be readily answered through business surveys alone, but also require the use of economic theories and statistical inferences. Offshoring has often been defined as the “shifting” of jobs or production offshore, but measuring this activity is extremely difficult. In many cases, the companies involved may not be able to provide any information on offshoring because they may not be aware that they are involved in offshoring. For example, if a U.S. company decides to outsource an activity to another U.S. company, and that second U.S. company, in turn, uses a foreign subcontractor to fulfill the contract, U.S. production and jobs would be lost to a foreign country. However, these impacts may not be attributed to offshoring, because no single U.S. company “shifted” production or jobs to a foreign country even though, from the perspective of the U.S. economy as a whole, production and jobs were moved abroad. In other cases, a decision by a U.S. company to expand overseas may result in no decrease in U.S. employment or production. Indeed, there could even be an increase in U.S. employment and production if the overseas expansion is a complement to, rather than a substitute for, U.S. activity [19]. Workers may take up new activities and that are more productive and profitable than the activities that were offshored [20]. “In-shoring” presents similar problems of interpretation. If a foreign company decides to outsource an activity to the United States, U.S. production and jobs will be gained whether the investment in the United States represented a “shifting” from abroad or whether it represented new global production rather than shifting. Another difficulty in quantifying and analyzing the effects of offshoring is the lack of a “counterfactual case” to which present day circumstances can be compared. That is, even if a business survey could quantify the direct employment effect of an offshoring decision, it could not capture information about what would have happened to employment if the particular company had decided not to offshore. If, for example, a U.S. manufacturer decided not to offshore and later went out of business, many more jobs could be lost than if it had offshored some activities. In this case, an assessment of whether jobs were saved or lost is partly a matter of theories and inferences. Thus, statistical data collections are a necessary tool, but they do not substitute for careful analyses. What do we know about offshoring by looking at BEA’s MNC data? A recent paper looked at BEA’s MNC data on employment, trade, and sales through affiliates to analyze trends in the data related to offshoring. The data showed that U.S. parents have increased their reliance on purchased goods and services, but that there is no significant association between this increased reliance on purchased inputs and decreases in parent employment. The paper showed that while parents’ reliance on imports of goods from foreign affiliates is negatively associated with changes in parent employment, this relationship was not significant for imports of services. Growth at U.S. parents and at their foreign affiliates is closely, and positively, linked. On average, the share of sales by foreign affiliates to local

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markets increased over time, suggesting that market access is an increasingly important reason for investing overseas. The increase in the share of sales that were to local markets coincides with an increase in the share of affiliate employment in low-income countries. This result suggests that for investment in low-income countries, market access, and not just factor cost differences, is an important consideration [21]. A recent study used BEA’s data to estimate how many jobs may have been lost due to offshoring. This study found that job losses in the United States were in large part due to productivity gains. Job losses due to the shifting of jobs by U.S. parent companies to their affiliates from 1999 to 2001 were estimated to be 195,000 jobs per year, a small portion of the 13 million jobs that were lost for all reasons in the American economy. The study also looked at the increase in U.S. imports of business, professional, and technical services (with affiliated and unaffiliated foreigners combined), and estimated that job losses from this factor would likely be no larger than 50,000 to 70,000 per year in the 2001-2003 period [22]. Do multinationals contribute to, or help mitigate, international financial crises, such as currency crises? Some recent studies have shown that multinational company investment tends to be more stable than other types of investment [23]. Indeed, during an international financial crisis, there is evidence that MNCs may more heavily invest in the economies that are distressed, helping to mitigate the crises. Such investments are perceived by the MNCs as also benefiting themselves over the longer term, because the value of their investments may increase substantially after the crisis subsides.

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Is intra-firm trade conducted at arm’s length prices, or are prices set to shift profits and avoid taxes? Although this area has been extensively studied, no consensus opinion has been reached. Research must continue, and additional data probably must be collected, before a consensus can be reached. What is the role of multinationals in international financial flows? The answer to this question is not entirely clear. Although financial flows that affect the U.S. balance of payments accounts are generally well tracked, many factors (including the use of complex organizational structures, unusual types of financial arrangements, and a decentralized data collection network) have made it impossible to isolate the flows that pertain just to multinationals. In many cases, they have also made it difficult to associate those flows with the operations that they ultimately finance. How do multinationals affect major domestic aggregates, such as GDP, productivity, inflation, and corporate profits? While the amount of GDP and other aggregates that is accounted for by MNCs is known, the full impact of MNCs on major domestic aggregates is unknown. As noted earlier, evidence shows that output in both the home and host countries is positively correlated with

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Ralph Kozlow

new direct investments. Nonetheless, further research is necessary to fully understand the impact of multinationals on domestic aggregates. MNCs affect domestic aggregates directly and through their transactions with other domestic and foreign businesses, including suppliers, and these latter transactions are not identifiable as being MNC-related. In regard to the environment, is there a “race to the bottom” where governments competing for increased investment are willing to accept very low (or lowered) environmental standards? Some studies have looked at the impact of MNCs on environmental quality, and evidence suggests that, in general, MNCs employ advanced environmental management techniques. Indeed, many MNCs have issued environmental policy statements and made public commitments to employ management practices that exceed legal mandates [24]. However, there also are examples of MNCs that contribute to increased air or water pollution. Further data collection and research would be needed to examine this question more fully. At present, there is very little data collected directly from MNCs that can be used to address this question.

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C. Although We Can Answer Many of the Key Questions, Even for These Questions There Nonetheless Remains Substantial Additional Work It is clear that several of the questions posed earlier can be at least partly addressed utilizing data currently available from BEA and other sources. However, there are reasons for not accepting these research findings as definitive. The answers to questions may change as direct investment and international trade in services continue to expand, as tax laws change, and as business cycles progress. It is noteworthy that there are large bilateral asymmetries in data that purport to measure the same or similar positions or transactions. The answers to some questions could change, as more complete or more accurate data are obtained. Unfortunately, some of the observed differences in bilateral estimates are likely to be the result of estimation errors. Partly in recognition of this prospect, the International Monetary Fund and others have moved aggressively to improve world statistical data quality, but this is a monumental task that will take considerable time and resources to accomplish. Other bilateral asymmetries are probably attributable to differences in the definitions and concepts that individual countries employ in producing estimates or in designing survey questionnaires. As mentioned earlier, in this era of globalization, comparability of data—both to data on the domestic economy and to data of other countries—is an important goal [25]. While addressing current challenges, we need to be mindful of new and emerging issues. The forces of globalization are probably serving to worsen difficulties that compilers are encountering with the accounts, as new types of business arrangements, the growth of high technology industries, the increasing importance of services (and the related questions of how to define and measure services activities), and new ways of financing operations or hedging exposures, are being introduced. Innovations prompted by the forces of globalization may lead to gaps and imbalances in the accounts. For example, some businesses may lock in exchange rates through the use of derivative instruments, and this may lead to imbalances in

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the accounts if the two entries (in the trade data and in the financial account of the balance of payments) do not exactly offset. Also, manufacturers may cease to operate in the conventional way—by taking title to the goods that they process—and instead become agents that receive fees for processing goods that they never own; this could lead to measurement and classification challenges. These are but a few examples of challenges that compilers must meet if they are to continue to satisfy the needs of data users adequately.

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III. WHAT SHOULD BEA OR OTHER STATISTICAL ORGANIZATIONS BE DOING, TO PROVIDE MORE AND BETTER DATA TO OUR USERS? There are many different steps that BEA and other statistical organizations should consider undertaking to improve the accuracy, consistency, and quality of their data. For example, data consistency across countries would be improved if international statistical data standards were updated and expanded, so that key categories of positions and transactions were defined in ways that are appropriate for data users and that are practical. (Practicality refers to the ease in which transactors or survey respondents may be able to report the data, or the ease of estimating data that are not directly reported). BEA has worked to help establish more uniform international standards by authoring discussion papers identifying key borderline direct investment areas, and by contributing to committees now updating the world’s economic statistical standards. This work was prompted by the IMF’s announcement of its intention to update the International Monetary Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual. Efforts by the United Nations to update the System of National Accounts provided another opportunity for developing and updating methodological standards and classification systems. Data would be augmented and improved if statistical organizations undertook additional collaborative projects, to improve data accuracy and to increase the utility of their data. Bilateral data comparisons can result in substantial data improvements, and it is clear that more of these could and should be undertaken [26]. In addition, data output would be enhanced if statistical organizations made fuller use of the data that they already collect. For example, as mentioned earlier, BEA has integrated MNC financial and operating data with its balance of payments data, by periodically issuing a supplemental, ownership-based framework of the U.S. current account. In addition, BEA has used data collected on various charges against production (compensation of employees, depreciation, etc.) to derive estimates of value added of MNCs. Finally, BEA conducts a variety of research and analytical activities in support of its data on MNCs. Research is conducted to interpret the data and place it in context, and to develop new methodologies and measures. Nonetheless, BEA recognizes that there is more work to perform, and it continues to explore opportunities to enhance the usefulness of the data it has already collected. Also, statistical agencies should work aggressively toward closing gaps in coverage, both in their coverage of cross border transactions and in their coverage of affiliate financial and operating data. For example, BEA currently collects very little information that might be used to assess the impact of MNCs on environmental quality [27].

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CONCLUSION Although a great deal of statistical information is available to help answer many of the questions now being asked about globalization and offshoring, clearly much work remains. There are reasons for not accepting current government statistics as the final answer. Not all questions have been answered, and the impact of globalization will surely change as direct investment and international trade in services continue to expand, as tax laws are revised, and as business cycles progress. Further, not all questions can be answered by statistics that are based on business surveys alone, as some also require the use of economic theories and statistical inferences, some of which are still being developed or refined. Finally, the forces of globalization are creating new or emerging issues that are tending to worsen some of the difficulties that compilers have traditionally faced in compiling the accounts. BEA is committed to continuing its progress in updating its measurement techniques, and in providing more timely and comprehensive data, to assist policymakers and others who rely on BEA’s data to obtain insights about the impact of globalization and offshoring.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY Bhagwati, Jagdish, Arvind Panagariya, and T.N. Srinivasan. 2004. “The Muddles Over Outsourcing.” Journal of Economic Perspectives. Fall. Borga, Maria. 2005. “Trends in Employment at U.S. Multinational Companies: Evidence from Firm-Level Data.” Brookings. Brainard, S. Lael, and David A. Riker. 1997. “Are U.S. Multinationals Exporting U.S. Jobs?” NBER Working Paper 5958. March. Carr, David L., James R. Markusen, and Keith E. Maskus. 2001. “Estimating the KnowledgeCapital Model of the Multinational Enterprise.” American Economic Review. June. Christiansen, Hans and Esther Garcia. 2004. “An Overview of Corporate Environmental Management Practices.” Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and Ethical Investment Research Services Ltd. Desai, Mihir A., C. Fritz Foley, and James R. Hines, Jr. 2003. “Chains of Ownership, Regional Tax Competition, and Foreign Direct Investment.” in Herrman, Heinz and Robert Lipsey, eds. Foreign Direct Investment in the Real and Financial Sector of Industrial Countries. Springer-Verlage. Desai, Mihir A., C. Fritz Foley, and James R. Hines, Jr. 2005. “Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Economic Activity.” NBER. October. . Graham, Edward M. and Paul R. Krugman. 1995. “Foreign Direct Investment in the United States.” Institute for International Economics. January. Graham, Edward M. 2000. “Fighting the Wrong Enemy.” Institute for International Economics. September. Hanson, Gordon H., Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr., and Matthew J. Slaughter. 2001. “Expansion Strategies of U.S. Multinational Firms.” Brookings. April. Howenstine, Ned G., and William J. Zeile. 1994. “Characteristics of Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments.” Survey of Current Business. January. Kester, Anne Y., ed. 1992. Behind the Numbers: U.S. Trade in the World Economy. Washington: National Academy Press.

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Koncz, Jennifer L., and Daniel R. Yorgason. 2005. “Direct Investment Positions for 2004: Country and Industry Detail.” Survey of Current Business. July. Kozlow, Ralph. 2002. “Exploring the Borderline Between Direct Investment and Other Types of Investment: The U.S. Treatment.” BOPCOM-02/35. Presented to the IMF’s Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics, Canberra, Australia. October. . Landefeld, J. Steven, Obie G. Whichard, and Jeffrey H. Lowe. 1993. “Alternative Frameworks for U.S. International Transactions.” Survey of Current Business. December. Lipsey, Robert E. 1994. “Foreign-Owned Firms and U.S. Wages.” NBER Working Paper 4927. November. Lipsey, Robert E. 2001. “Foreign Direct Investors in Three Financial Crises.” NBER Working Paper 8084. January. Lowe, Jeffrey H. 2005. “An Ownership-Based Framework of the U.S. Current Account, 1992-2003.” Survey of Current Business. January. Mataloni, Jr., Raymond. 2005. “U.S. Multinational Companies: Operations in 2003.” Survey of Current Business. July. Schultze, Charles L. 2004. “Offshoring, Import Competition, and the Jobless Recovery.” Brookings. August. Slaughter, Matthew J. 1995. “Multinational Corporations, Outsourcing, and American Wage Divergence.” NBER Working Paper 5253. September. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 2005. World Investment Report 2005: Transnational Corporations and the Internationalization of RandD. New York and Geneva: United Nations. U.S. Department of Commerce. 1993 and 1997. “Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, An Update.” Whichard, Obie G. 2003. “Measuring Globalization: The Experience of the United States of America.” prepared for the 22nd CEIES Seminar, Copenhagen, Denmark. June. Zeile, William J. 1998. “The Domestic Orientation of Production and Sales by U.S. Manufacturing Affiliates of Foreign Companies.” Survey of Current Business. April.

REFERENCES [1] [2] [3]

[4] [5]

[6] [7]

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 2005. BEA’s trade-in-services program covers trade by all U.S. residents (whether or not they are MNCs) with affiliated and unaffiliated foreign residents. One major recent effort that has improved comparability of the U.S. data with data produced by Canada and Mexico was the release in 1997 of the North American Industry Classification System. See Whichard 2003 for a discussion of how BEA has organized and enhanced data it obtains from MNCs. Several research and policy studies involving these questions have been performed using MNC data. See for example, Brainard and Riker 1997, Slaughter 1995, Lipsey 1994, Graham and Krugman 1995, and Graham 2000. Mataloni 2005. Slaughter 1995.

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14 [8]

[9] [10] [11] [12]

[13] [14]

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[15] [16] [17] [18]

[19]

[20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25]

Ralph Kozlow Data collected by the U.S. Government would potentially permit additional study of the impact of foreign takeovers (and of how foreign takeovers compare with takeovers more generally) on U.S. employment levels and wage rates, but (partly due to unresolved interagency data sharing questions) these data sets have not yet been utilized for this purpose. Desai, Foley, and Hines 2003. Koncz and Yorgason 2005. U.S. Department of Commerce1993 and 1997. A study of the feasibility of linking BEA’s data on the identity of U.S. MNCs and of U.S. companies that are foreign owned with NSF/Census Bureau data on research and development expenditures was successfully concluded in 2005. BEA also collects data on exports and imports of research and development services that could provide additional insights into cross-border transfers of technology. Zeile 1998. Landefeld, Whichard, and Lowe 1993, and Lowe 2005. The ownership-based framework of the current account groups direct investment income generated by sales through affiliates with cross-border tradein goods and services, to recognize the active role of parent companies in managing and coordinating their affiliates’ operations. Such income differs fundamentally from income on other types of investments, and might be regarded as a kind of implicit management fee that compensates the parent company for undertaking an active role in affiliate operations. The framework also provides more detailed information on trade within MNCs than does the traditional current-account framework. Carr, Markusen, and Maskus 2001. Hanson, Mataloni, and Slaughter 2001. Howenstine and Zeile 1994. To date, BEA and the Census Bureau have published data for 1987, 1992, and 1997 on the number, employment, payroll, and value of shipments of both foreign-owned manufacturing and nonmanufacturing establishments. Data for 2002 are scheduled for publication in 2006. In addition, data for the above and other items for foreign-owned manufacturing establishments for 1988-91 were published based on data from the Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Manufactures. This is not a rare case. A recent NBER paper (Desai, Foley, and Hines 2005) utilizing BEA’s confidential micro-data confirms results from earlier studies in suggesting that employment and production at U.S. parent companies and their foreign affiliates tend to be complements rather than substitutes. Bhagwati, Panagariya, and Srinivasan 2004. Borga 2005. Schultze 2004. Lipsey 2001 Christiansen and Garcia 2004. To work toward attaining that goal, the United States recently identified numerous borderline cases between direct investment and other types of investment, where there were no broadly accepted treatments or definitions. A primary purpose of identifying these borderline situations was to promote international consistency of treatment, by

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informing others of the treatments followed by the United States, and providing justifications for those treatments where they may be unclear. See Kozlow 2002. [26] One example of a successful data reconciliation project is the annual United StatesCanada current account reconciliation. This project - which has been performed annually since 1970 - demonstrates the benefits that ensue from detailed bilateral data reconciliations. However, this project also has shown that high quality reconciliation projects may be resource intensive. Viewed from a practical perspective, bilateral reconciliation projects probably must be limited to those where significant gains are expected, or that do not unduly burden statistical agency resources. Perhaps partly in recognition of this consideration, international organizations including the IMF and Eurostat have been facilitating recent data comparison and reconciliation projects. [27] BEA also strives to address data gaps in areas of the accounts that are not specifically MNC-related. For example, many of BEA’s surveys of unaffiliated services transactions were conducted only annually, and there was virtually no data on U.S. international financial derivatives. In 2004, BEA introduced new quarterly surveys for the largest and most volatile categories of services transactions, and, in 2005, with support from BEA, the U.S. Department of Treasury began conducting a survey of financial derivatives. Efforts to close data gaps on MNCs need to be part of a broader effort by statistical agencies, to identify and work on closing all major data gaps, whether in coverage of cross-border transactions or of MNC financial and operating data.

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Chapter 2

U.S. AGRICULTURAL POLICY RESPONSE TO WTO COTTON DECISION *

Randy Schnepf ABSTRACT

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In a dispute settlement case (DS267) brought by Brazil against certain aspects of the U.S. cotton program, a WTO Appellate Body (AB) recommended in March 2005 that the United States remove certain “prohibited subsidies” by July 21, 2005, and remove the adverse effects resulting from certain “actionable subsidies” by September 21, 2005. When the United States failed to meet these deadlines, Brazil claimed the right to retaliate against $3 billion in U.S. exports to Brazil based on the prohibited subsidies, and proposed $1 billion in retaliation based on the actionable subsidies. The United States objected to these retaliation amounts and requested WTO arbitration on the matter. However, in mid-2005 the United States and Brazil reached a procedural agreement to temporarily suspend retaliation proceedings. On August 21, 2006, Brazil submitted a request for a WTO compliance panel to review whether the United States has fully complied with panel and AB rulings. The United States blocked the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) from approving Brazil’s request on August 31, 2006; however, Brazil is expected to make a second request (which the United States will be unable to block) at the DSB meeting set for September 28, 2006. If a compliance panel finds that the United States has not fully complied with the AB rulings, Brazil could ask the WTO arbitration panel to resume its work. Although the United States has already complied with a portion of the AB’s recommendation by eliminating the Step 2 program (August 1, 2006), additional permanent modifications to U.S. farm programs may still be needed to fully comply with the WTO ruling on “actionable subsidies.” This report will be updated as events warrant.

*

This is an edited, reformatted and augmented version of Congressional Research Service Report RS22187 dated September 8, 2006.

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INTRODUCTION The United States is the world’s largest cotton exporter. During the 2001-2003 period, U.S. exports accounted for 40% of world trade, on average, while government domestic subsidies averaged $3 billion per year. In late 2002, Brazil — a major cotton export competitor — expressed its growing concerns about U.S. cotton subsidies by initiating a WTO dispute settlement case (DS267) against specific provisions of the U.S. cotton program. On September 8, 2004, a WTO dispute settlement panel ruled against the United States on several key issues (WT/DS267/R). On March 3, 2005, a WTO Appellate Body (AB) upheld the panel’s ruling on appeal (WT/DS267/AB/R). On March 21, 2005, the panel and AB reports were adopted by the WTO membership, initiating a sequence of events, under WTO dispute settlement rules, whereby the United States is expected to bring its policies into line with the panel’s recommendations or negotiate a mutually acceptable settlement with Brazil [1].

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The WTO Dispute Settlement Panel’s Recommendation In their ruling against the United States, the WTO panel and AB recommended that the United States withdraw those support programs identified as “prohibited” subsidies within six months of adoption of the panel’s and AB’s reports by the WTO membership or by July 1, 2005, whichever was earlier; and that it remove the prejudicial effects of those programs identified as “actionable” subsidies by September 21, 2005. Each of these subsidy types — prohibited and actionable — involves a different type of response and a different timetable for implementing that response [2]. Prohibited Subsidies. Two types of prohibited subsidies were identified by the WTO panel: unscheduled export subsidies (i.e., subsidies applied to commodities not listed on a country’s WTO schedule or made in excess of the value listed on the schedule); [3] and import substitution subsidies, which refers to subsidies paid to domestic users to encourage the use of domestic products over imported products. Both Step 2 export payments and export credit guarantees were found to operate as prohibited export subsidies. Step 2 domestic user payments were found to operate as prohibited import substitution subsidies. Under the WTO’s Agreement on Agriculture, prohibited subsidies are treated with greater urgency than actionable subsidies — in particular, they are given a shorter time frame for compliance. Step 2 Program. Step 2 payments were part of special cotton marketing provisions authorized under U.S. farm program legislation to keep U.S. upland cotton competitive on the world market [4]. Step 2 payments were made to exporters and domestic mill users to compensate them for their purchase of U.S. upland cotton, which tends to be priced higher than the world market price. Export Credit Guarantee Programs. USDA’s export credit guarantee programs (GSM102, GSM-103, and SCGP) underwrite credit extended by private U.S. banks to approved foreign banks for purchases of U.S. food and agricultural products by foreign buyers [5]. GSM-102 covers credit terms up to three years, while GSM-103 covers longer credit terms up to 10 years. The Supplier Credit Guarantee Program (SCGP) insures short-term, open account financing designed to make it easier for exporters to sell U.S. food products overseas. The

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WTO panel found that all three export credit programs effectively functioned as export subsidies because the financial benefits returned to the government by these programs failed to cover their long-run operating cost. Furthermore, the panel found that this export-subsidy aspect of export credit guarantees applies not just to cotton but to all recipient commodities that benefit from U.S. commodity support programs. In other words, so long as the credit guarantees act as an implicit export subsidy, only U.S. program crops that have scheduled export subsidies (in accordance with the U.S. WTO country schedule) are eligible for U.S. export credit guarantees [6]. Actionable Subsidies. Any subsidy may be challenged in the WTO (i.e., is “actionable”) if it fulfills the WTO definition of a subsidy [7] and is alleged to cause adverse effects to the interests of other WTO members. Actionable U.S. subsidies were identified as contributing to serious prejudice to the interests of Brazil by depressing prices for cotton on the world market during the marketing years 1999-2002. Specifically, this involved those U.S. subsidy measures singled out as price-contingent (i.e., dependent on changes in current market prices) — marketing loan provisions, Step 2 payments, market loss payments, and counter-cyclical payments [8]. The panel recommended that, upon adoption of its final report, the United States take appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects of these subsidies or to withdraw the subsidies entirely [9]. Such subsidies were previously afforded some protection under the so-called “peace clause” (Article 13) of the WTO’s Agreement on Agriculture [10].

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BRAZIL’S RESPONSE Prohibited Subsidies. Because the prohibited export subsidies had not been removed by July 1, 2005, Brazil requested (July 4, 2005) authorization from the WTO to impose countermeasures against U.S. cotton subsidies. According to WTO rules, trade sanctions are limited to a value not to exceed the level of lost benefits. Brazil proposed to suspend tariff concessions as well as obligations under the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights and the General Agreement on Trade in Services until the United States withdrew the exports subsidies identified by the WTO, in an amount estimated at $3 billion, corresponding to (1) Step 2 payments made in the most recently concluded marketing year (2004/05) and (2) the total of exporter applications received under the three export credit guarantee programs, for all unscheduled commodities and for rice, for the most recent fiscal year (2004) [11]. The United States objected to the amount of Brazil’s proposed sanctions, and requested WTO arbitration (July 19, 2005; WT/DS267/24). However, the United States and Brazil reached a procedural agreement (Aug. 18, 2005; WT/DS267/25) temporarily suspending arbitration proceedings insofar as the prohibited subsidies are involved. Actionable Subsidies. To date, the Administration has not announced any specific initiative to address the programs deemed to cause prejudicial impact to Brazil’s trade interest. Because the prejudicial effects of the price-contingent actionable subsidies had not been removed by September 21, 2005, Brazil requested authorization from the WTO to impose additional countermeasures valued at $1 billion as retaliation against the programs causing serious prejudice. Once again, the United States requested WTO arbitration (Oct 18, 2005; WT/DS267/27) over the level of the proposed sanctions. However, the United States and Brazil reached another procedural agreement (Dec. 7, 2005; WT/DS267/29) suspending further retaliation proceedings insofar as the actionable subsidies are involved.

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U.S. RESPONSE

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With respect to the “prohibited subsidies,” the Step 2 cotton program, which was authorized by the 2002 farm act (P.L. 107-171; Sect. 1207), was eliminated on August 1, 2006, by a provision (Sec. 1103) in the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 (P.L. 109-171). As for export credit guarantees, user fees for GSM-102, the primary export credit program, presently are capped at 1% of the value of the export product. Higher fees are needed to ensure that the financial benefits returned by these programs fully cover their long-run operating costs; thereby eliminating their subsidy component. On July 1, 2005, USDA instituted a temporary fix whereby the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) would use a risk-based fee structure for the GSM-102 and SCGP programs [12]. The new structure responds to a key finding by the WTO that the fees charged by the programs should be risk-based. In addition, the CCC stopped accepting applications for payment guarantees under GSM-103. On July 5, 2005, USDA Secretary Johanns proposed that Congress implement statutory changes to comply with the prohibited subsidy ruling that included the removal of the 1% cap on fees that can be charged under the GSM-102 program and termination of the GSM-103 program [13]. According to Secretary Johanns the proposed changes were worked out in collaboration with U.S. industry groups. Additional permanent modifications to U.S. farm programs may still be needed to fully comply with the “actionable subsidies” portion of the WTO ruling. The National Cotton Council (NCC) has been watching the U.S. policy response to this case very closely. The NCC is an industry group representing cotton producers, ginners, warehousers, merchants, cottonseed processors/dealers, cooperatives and textile manufacturers. While the NCC has expressed interest in working with Congress in effecting a “fair and appropriate” response to the WTO case, in previous testimony to Congress the NCC leadership has also expressed interest in participating in the WTO’s rules-based international trading system and in maintaining an effective U.S. cotton program that complies with WTO rules [14].

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Brazil continues to undertake the procedural steps necessary to preserve its authority under the auspices of the WTO to retaliate in the event of noncompliance by the United States. However, Brazil has shown a willingness to permit the U.S. legislative process to make the changes needed to bring its farm programs into compliance with the WTO ruling, even if this process extends well beyond the deadlines established under the WTO dispute settlement ruling. For example, Brazil agreed to suspend retaliation arbitration for both the prohibited and actionable subsidy cases, partly because the U.S. proposal to eliminate the Step 2 cotton program signaled U.S. intentions to fully remove the prohibited subsidies, and partly due to the expectation that further changes to the actionable subsidy component of the U.S. cotton program would be reached as part of a negotiated solution under the Doha Round of WTO trade negotiations and that such changes would then be incorporated as part of the next U.S. farm bill. In July 2006, the Doha Round talks were suspended indefinitely. Shortly thereafter, on August 21, 2006, Brazil submitted a request for a WTO compliance panel to review whether the United States has fully complied with panel and AB rulings. The United States blocked

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the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) from approving Brazil’s request on August 31, 2006; however, Brazil is expected to make a second request (which the United States will be unable to block) at the DSB meeting set for September 28, 2006. Under Article 21.5 of the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Procedures, a compliance panel would have 90 days to reach a decision with the possibility of requesting an extension. A decision by the compliance panel could also be appealed and the AB also would have 90 days to reach a decision. If the compliance panel found that the United States has not fully complied with the AB rulings, Brazil could ask the WTO arbitration panel to resume its work, with a decision within 60 days, according to the U.S.-Brazil agreement on prohibited subsidies [15]. U.S. failure to comply could result in WTO-sanctioned trade retaliation by Brazil against the United States. The U.S. response to the WTO cotton ruling is being watched closely by developing countries, particularly by a consortium of four African cotton-producing countries that has submitted its own proposal to the WTO calling for a global agreement to end all production-related support for cotton growers of all WTO-member countries [16].

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Potential Effects to U.S. Agriculture of Proposed Changes Eliminating the Step 2 Program. The Step 2 program channeled $3 billion to the U.S. cotton industry during the 1996-2005 period [17]. In July 2005, USDA’s chief economist, Keith Collins, suggested that ending the Step 2 program would result in slightly lower domestic prices — by two to three cents per pound — and higher export prices for U.S. cotton [18]. But he also anticipated that declines in producer prices would be likely to trigger an increase in counter-cyclical payments (CCP) to U.S. cotton farmers that would offset losses from lower prices. A December 2005 analysis by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) found a -1.3¢ decline in U.S. farm price and a 0.4¢ rise in international prices due to the elimination of Step 2 payments [19]. Changing GSM-102 and Terminating GSM-103. In FY2004, about 11% of U.S. cotton exports were facilitated with export credit guarantees — FY2004 U.S. cotton exports were valued at $4.5 billion, of which $480 million were facilitated with GSM-102 export credit guarantees and another $8 million relied on SCGP guarantees. Redesign of export credit guarantees (as discussed above) would likely have a small but negative effect on U.S. cotton exports, thus reinforcing the results of removing Step 2.

Role of Congress Ultimately, Congress is responsible for passing farm program legislation that complies with U.S. commitments in international trade agreements. The Step 2 program has already been permanently eliminated by a provision in the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 (Sec. 1103, P.L. 109-171). Further statutory changes could be needed to eliminate the “subsidy” component of export credit guarantees as represented by the 1% cap on user fees. In addition, changes to those programs, specific to cotton, deemed part of the actionable subsidy ruling (i.e., CCP and marketing loan provision) would also necessitate legislative action. The legislation authorizing current farm programs is not set to expire until 2007. Senate

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Randy Schnepf

Agriculture Committee Chairman Saxby Chambliss has said that he would review the Administration’s proposal and work with industry and the Administration to identify the appropriate legislative solution for complying with the WTO ruling [20].

REFERENCES [1]

[2]

[3] [4] [5] [6]

[7]

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[8]

[9] [10] [11] [12]

[13] [14]

[15] [16] [17]

For a detailed discussion of the U.S.-Brazil WTO dispute settlement case, see CRS Report RL32571, Background on the U.S.-Brazil WTO Cotton Subsidy Dispute, by Randy Schnepf. For disputes involving prohibited (or WTO-illegal) subsidies, the prescribed remedy compliance time is halved. For more information on WTO disputes, see CRS Report RL32014, WTO Dispute Settlement: Status of U.S. Compliance in Pending Cases, by Jeanne Grimmett. For more information, see CRS Report RL32916, Agriculture in the WTO: Policy Commitments Made Under the Agreement on Agriculture, by Randy Schnepf. For more information on Step 2 payments, see CRS Report RL32442, Cotton Production and Support in the United States, by Jasper Womach. For information on these programs, see USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, “Export Credit Guarantee Programs,” at [http://www.fas.usda.gov/excredits/default.htm]. For more information on country schedules, see CRS Report RL32916 Agriculture in the WTO: Policy Commitments Made Under the Agreement on Agriculture, by Randy Schnepf. As defined in Article 1 of the WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. For more information on these programs, see CRS Report RL33271, Farm Commodity Programs: Direct Payments, Counter-Cyclical Payments, and Marketing Loans, by Jim Monke. Report of the Panel, WTO, WT/DS267/R, para. 7.1503, p. 354. For more information, see CRS Report RL32571, Background on the U.S.-Brazil WTO Cotton Subsidy Dispute, by Randy Schnepf. For details, see CRS Report RL32014, WTO Dispute Settlement: Status of U.S. Compliance in Pending Cases, by Jeanne J. Grimmett. USDA press release No. 0238.05, June 30, 2005. For more information on the implementation of USDA’s risk-based fee structure, see [http://www.fas.usda.gov/ excredits/default.htm]. USDA press release No. 0242.05, July 5, 2005. Statement of Woody Anderson, then-chairman, National Cotton Council, before the U.S. Congress, House Committee on Agriculture, May 19, 2004; available at [http:// agriculture.house.gov/hearings/108/10829.pdf]. “Brazil to Ask for WTO Cotton Compliance Panel in September,” Inside U.S. Trade, Aug. 18, 2006; available at [http://www.insidetrade.com]. For more information, see CRS Report RS21712, The African Cotton Initiative and WTO Agriculture Negotiations, by Charles Hanrahan. USDA, Farm Service Agency, Table 35-CCC, Net Outlays by Commodity and Function; available at [http://www.fsa.usda.gov/dam/bud/bud1.htm].

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[18] “More Cotton Program Changes,” Washington Trade Daily, Vol.14, p. 131-132, Jul. 56, 2005. [19] FAPRI, Potential Impacts on U.S. Agriculture of the U.S. October 2005 WTO Proposal, FAPRI-UMC Report #16-05, December 15, 2005. [20] “USDA Calls for Repeal of Cotton Subsidy to Achieve WTO Compliance,” Inside U.S. Trade, July 8, 2005.

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Chapter 3

DISPUTE SETTLEMENT IN THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION: AN OVERVIEW *

Jeanne J. Grimmett ABSTRACT

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Dispute resolution in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is carried out under the WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU), whose rules and procedures apply to virtually all WTO agreements. The DSU provides for consultations between disputing parties, panels and appeals, and possible compensation or retaliation if a defending party does not comply with an adverse WTO decision by a given date. Automatic establishment of panels, adoption of reports, and authorization of requests to retaliate, along with deadlines for various stages of the dispute process and improved multilateral surveillance and enforcement of WTO obligations, are aimed at producing a more expeditious and effective system than that which existed under the GATT. To date, 349 WTO complaints have been filed, slightly more than half of which involve the United States as a complaining party or defendant. Expressing dissatisfaction with WTO dispute settlement results in the trade remedy area, Congress directed the executive branch to address dispute settlement issues in WTO negotiations in its grant of trade promotion authority to the President in 2002 (P.L. 107-210). WTO Members had been negotiating DSU revisions in the now-suspended WTO Doha Round, though a draft agreement was not produced. S. 817 (Stabenow), S. 1542 (Stabenow), S. 2317 (Baucus), and H.R. 4186 (Camp) would each establish a new position in the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to help the USTR investigate and prosecute WTO disputes. S. 2467 (Grassley) would make the USTR General Counsel a confirmable position expressly responsible for WTO dispute settlement. H.R. 4733 (Rangel) and H.R. 5043 (Cardin) would create new congressional entities with functions related to WTO disputes. This report will be updated as events warrant.

*

This is an edited, reformatted and augmented version of Congressional Research Service Report RS20088 dated September 14, 2006.

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BACKGROUND From its inception, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has provided for consultations and dispute resolution among GATT Contracting Parties, allowing a party to invoke GATT dispute articles if it believes that another’s measure, whether violative of the GATT or not, has caused it trade injury. Because the GATT does not set out a dispute procedure with great specificity, GATT Parties over time developed a more detailed process including ad hoc panels and other practices. The procedure was perceived to have certain deficiencies, however, among them a lack of deadlines, the use of consensus decision-making (thus allowing a Party to block the establishment of panels and adoption of panel reports), and laxity in surveillance and implementation of dispute settlement results. Congress made reform of the GATT dispute process a principal U.S. goal in the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding. The Uruguay Round Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU), which went into effect January 1, 1995, continues past GATT dispute practice, but also contains several features aimed at strengthening the prior system [1]. A Dispute Settlement Body (DSB), consisting of representatives of all WTO Members, administers dispute proceedings. While the DSB ordinarily operates by consensus (i.e., without formal objection of any Member present), the DSU reverses past consensus practice at fundamental stages of the process. Thus, unless it decides by consensus not to do so, the DSB is to establish panels; adopt panel and appellate reports; and, where WTO rulings have not been implemented and if requested by a prevailing party, authorize the party to impose a retaliatory measure. The DSU also sets forth deadlines for various stages of the proceedings and improves multilateral monitoring of the implementation of adopted rulings. Given that panel reports are to be adopted automatically, WTO Members have a right to appeal a panel report on issues of law. The DSU created a standing Appellate Body to carry out this new appellate function; the Body has seven members, three of whom serve on any one case. The DSU provides for integrated dispute settlement — that is, the same rules apply to disputes under virtually all WTO agreements unless a specific agreement provides otherwise. If a dispute reaches the retaliatory stage, this approach allows a Member to impose a countermeasure in a sector or under an agreement other than the one at issue (“crossretaliate”). The preferred outcome of the dispute mechanism is “a solution mutually acceptable to the parties and consistent with the covered agreements”; absent such a solution, the primary objective of the process is withdrawal of a violative measure, with compensation and retaliation being avenues of last resort. The DSU has proved popular, with 349 complaints filed from January 1, 1995, to date; slightly more than half involve the United States as either a complaining party or a defendant. The United States Trade Representative (USTR) represents the United States in WTO disputes. The DSU was scrutinized by Members pursuant to an Uruguay Round Declaration, which called for completion of a review within four years after the WTO Agreement entered into force (i.e., by January 1, 1999). Members did not agree on any revisions in this review, and although negotiations on dispute settlement issues had continued during the currently suspended Doha Round, a draft agreement on dispute settlement was not produced [2]. Discussions have addressed, inter alia, “remand, sequencing, post-retaliation, third-party

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rights, flexibility and Member control, panel composition, time-savings, and transparency”[3]. The United States has proposed greater Member control over the dispute settlement process, guidelines for WTO adjudicative bodies, and increased transparency (e.g., through open meetings and timely access to submissions and final reports) [4].

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STEPS IN A WTO DISPUTE PROCEEDING Consultations (Art. 4). If a WTO Member requests consultations with another Member under a WTO agreement, the latter must generally respond within 10 days and enter into consultations within 30 days. If the dispute is not resolved within 60 days after receipt of the request to consult, the complaining party may request a panel. The complainant may request a panel earlier if the defending Member has failed to enter into consultations or if the disputants agree that consultations have been unsuccessful. Establishing a Dispute Panel (Arts. 6, 8). If a panel is requested, the DSB must establish it at the second DSB meeting at which the request appears as an agenda item, unless it decides by consensus not to do so. The panel is generally composed of three persons. The Secretariat proposes the names of panelists to the disputants, who may not oppose them except for “compelling reasons.” If there is no agreement on panelists within 20 days from the date the panel is established, either disputing party may request the WTO Director-General to appoint the panelists. Panel Proceedings (Arts. 12, 15). After considering written and oral arguments, the panel issues the descriptive part of its report (facts and argument) to the disputing parties. After considering any comments, the panel submits this portion along with its findings and conclusions to the disputants as an interim report. Absent further comments, the interim report is considered to be the final report and is circulated promptly to WTO Members. A panel must generally circulate its report to the disputants within six months after the panel is composed, but may take longer if needed. The period from panel establishment to circulation of the report to all Members should not exceed nine months. In practice, panels have increasingly failed to meet the six-month deadline [5]. Adoption of Panel Reports/Appellate Review (Arts. 16, 17, 20). Within 60 days after a panel report is circulated to WTO Members, the report is to be adopted at a DSB meeting unless a disputing party appeals it or the DSB decides by consensus not to adopt it. Within 60 days of being notified of an appeal (extendable to 90 days), the Appellate Body (AB) must issue a report that upholds, reverses, or modifies the panel report. The AB report is to be adopted by the DSB, and unconditionally accepted by the disputing parties, unless the DSB decides by consensus not to adopt it within 30 days after circulation to Members. The period of time from the date the panel is established to the date the DSB considers the panel report for adoption is not to exceed nine months (12 months where the report is appealed) unless otherwise agreed by the disputing parties. Implementation of Panel and Appellate Body Reports (Art. 21). Thirty days after the panel and any AB reports are adopted, the Member must inform the DSB how it will implement the WTO ruling. If it is “impracticable” to comply immediately, the Member will have a “reasonable period of time” to do so. The period will be: (1) that proposed by the Member and approved by the DSB; (2) absent approval, the period mutually agreed by the disputing parties within 45 days after the date of adoption of the report or reports; or (3)

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failing agreement, the period determined by binding arbitration. Arbitration is to be completed within 90 days after the reports are adopted. To aid the arbitrator in determining a compliance period, the DSU provides a non-binding guideline of 15 months from the date of adoption; awards have ranged from six months to 15 months, one week. The DSU envisions a time period of no more than 18 months from the date a panel is established until the reasonable period of time is established. Where there is disagreement as to whether a Member has complied in a case, a panel may be convened to resolve the dispute (Article 21.5); the compliance panel has 90 days to issue its report, which may be appealed. Compensation and Suspension of Concessions (Art. 22). If defending party fails to comply with the WTO recommendations and rulings within the compliance period, the party must, upon request, enter into negotiations with the prevailing party on a compensation agreement within 20 days after the expiration of this period; if negotiations fail, the prevailing party may request authorization from the DSB to retaliate. If requested, the DSB is to grant the authorization within 30 days after the compliance period expires unless it decides by consensus not to do so. The defending Member may request arbitration on the level of retaliation or whether the prevailing Member has followed DSU rules in formulating a proposal for cross-retaliation; the arbitration is to be completed within 60 days after the compliance period expires. Once a retaliatory measure is imposed, it may remain in effect only until the violative measure is removed or the disputing parties otherwise resolve the dispute. Compliance Issues. While many WTO rulings have been satisfactorily implemented, a number of difficult cases have tested the implementation articles of the DSU, highlighting some deficiencies in the system and prompting suggestions for reform [6]. For example, gaps in the DSU have resulted in the problem of “sequencing,” an issue that first manifested itself during the compliance phase of the U.S.-EC dispute over the EC’s banana import regime. Article 22 of the DSU allows a prevailing party to request authorization to retaliate within 30 days after a compliance period ends if the defending party has not complied. Article 21.5 provides that disagreements over the adequacy of compliance measures are to be decided using WTO dispute procedures, “including whenever possible resort to the original panel”; the compliance panel’s report is due within 90 days and may be appealed. The DSU does not integrate Article 21.5 into Article 22 processes, nor does it expressly state how compliance is to be determined so that a prevailing party may pursue action under Article 22. Sequencing has been discussed but not resolved in the current WTO dispute settlement negotiations. Multilateral action is needed to revise WTO rules in this area given the January 2001 adoption of a WTO appellate report which in effect concluded that a panel convened to arbitrate the level of trade retaliation under Article 22.6 does not have a mandate to decide initially if a WTO Member is in compliance with WTO rulings, and further stated that rules regarding sequencing must be decided by WTO Members as a whole (Appellate Body Report, United States — Import Measures on Certain Products from the European Communities, WT/DS165/AB/R (Dec. 11, 2000)). In the meantime, disputing parties have filled the gap in the DSU through bilateral procedural agreements. WTO Dispute Settlement and U.S. Law. Adoption of panel and appellate reports finding that a U.S. measure violates a WTO agreement does not give the reports direct legal effect in this country. Thus, federal law would not be affected until Congress or the Executive Branch, as the case may be, changed the law or administrative measure at issue [7]. Procedures for Executive Branch compliance with adverse WTO decisions are set out in §§ 123 and 129 of

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Dispute Settlement in the World Trade Organization: An Overview

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the Uruguay Round Agreements Act (URAA). The DSU generally applies to disputes involving state and local measures covered by WTO agreements and Members are obligated to ensure compliance at this level (DSU, Art. 22.9 and n.17). Only the federal government may bring suit against a state or locality to declare its law invalid because of inconsistency with a WTO agreement; private remedies based on WTO obligations are also precluded by statute (URAA, § 102(b),(c)). Sections 301-310 of the Trade Act of 1974 provide a means for private parties to petition the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to take action regarding harmful foreign trade practices. If the USTR decides to initiate an investigation, whether by petition or on its own accord, regarding an allegedly WTO-inconsistent measure, he or she must invoke the WTO dispute process to seek resolution of the problem. The USTR may impose retaliatory measures to remedy an uncorrected foreign practice, some of which may involve suspending a WTO obligation (e.g., a tariff increase in excess of negotiated rates). The USTR may terminate a Section 301 case if the dispute is settled, but under § 306 must monitor foreign compliance and may take further retaliatory action if compliance measures are unsatisfactory. A “carousel” provision added to § 306 in P.L. 106-200 directs the USTR periodically to revise the list of imports subject to Section 301 retaliation unless the USTR finds that implementation of WTO obligations is imminent or the USTR and the Section 301 petitioner agree that revision is unnecessary. Article 23 of the DSU requires WTO Members to use DSU procedures in disputes involving WTO agreements and to act in accord with the DSU when determining if a violation has occurred, determining a compliance period, and taking any retaliatory action. Section 301 may be generally be used consistently with the DSU, though some U.S. trading partners continued to complain that the statute allows unilateral action and forces negotiations through its threat of sanctions. The EC challenged Section 301 in the WTO in 1998, with the dispute panel finding that the language of § 304, which requires a USTR determination as to the legality of a foreign practice by a given date, is prima facie inconsistent with Article 23 because in some cases it mandates a determination and statutorily reserves the right for the determination to be one of inconsistency with WTO obligations before the exhaustion of DSU procedures. The panel also found, however, that the serious threat of violative determinations and consequently the prima facie inconsistency was removed because of U.S. undertakings, as set forth in the Uruguay Round Statement of Administrative Action (H.Doc. 103-316) and made before the panel, that the USTR would use its statutory discretion to implement Section 301 in conformity with WTO obligations. Moreover, the panel could not find that the DSU was violated by § 306, which directs USTR to make a determination as to imposing retaliatory measures by a given date, given differing good faith interpretations of the “sequencing” ambiguities in the DSU. See Panel Report, United States — Sections 301-310 of the Trade Act of 1974, WT/DS152/R (Dec. 22, 1999) (adopted Jan. 27, 2000). The EC has also challenged the “carousel” statute described above, but the case remains in consultations (WT/DS200). The issue has also been raised in Doha dispute settlement negotiations. Recent Legislation Related to WTO Dispute Settlement. In its grant of trade promotion authority to the President in 2002 (P.L. 107-210), Congress directed the Executive Branch to address dispute settlement issues in WTO negotiations, particularly to seek the adherence of panels to previously-agreed standards of review, and provisions encouraging the early identification and settlement of disputes. Three 109th Congress bills — S. 817 (Stabenow), S. 1542 (Stabenow), and H.R. 4186 (Camp) — would create a Chief Trade Prosecutor in the

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Jeanne J. Grimmett

Office of the USTR who would, among other things, assist the USTR in investigating and prosecuting disputes before the WTO. S.2317 (Baucus) would create a Chief Trade Enforcement Officer in the Office of the USTR to do the same. S. 2467 (Grassley) would make the USTR General Counsel a confirmable position and assign to the position functions related to, among other things, WTO dispute settlement. H.R. 4733 (Rangel) would create an Office of the Congressional Trade Enforcer. H.R 5043 (Cardin) would create a Congressional Advisory Commission on WTO Dispute Settlement and allow certain private U.S. persons to participate in WTO dispute consultations and panel proceedings. S. 2467 has been placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar; no other action has been taken to date on these bills.

REFERENCES

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[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

The text of the DSU, panel and Appellate Body reports, and information on the WTO dispute process is available at [http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/ dispu_e.htm]. WTO disputes are listed and summarized by the WTO Secretariat in its “Update of WTO Dispute Settlement Cases,” available at the WTO website, above. A summary of U.S. dispute settlement activity is provided by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) in its “Snapshot of WTO Cases Involving the United States,” at [http://www.ustr.gov] (search under Trade Agreements, Monitoring and Enforcement). U.S. written submissions to WTO dispute panels are also available at the USTR website. For statistical information on cases involving the United States, see CRS Report RS21763, WTO Dispute Settlement: Stages and Pending U.S. Activity Before the Dispute Settlement Body, by Todd B. Tatelman. For the status of current cases in which the United States has been successfully challenged, see CRS Report RL32014, WTO Dispute Settlement: Status of U.S. Compliance in Pending Cases, by Jeanne J. Grimmett. DSU Review: Members Continue to Discuss Revised Contributions, Bridges Weekly Trade News Digest, April 26, 2006, at [http://www.ictsd.org/weekly /06-0426/wtoinbrief.htm]. In light of the ongoing suspension of the Doha Round, the chairman of the dispute settlement negotiations is currently consulting with WTO Members to determine whether to proceed with negotiations or to await further developments with respect to the Round. Telephone conversation with USTR staff, Sept. 13, 2006. Special Session of the Dispute Settlement Body, Report by the Chairman, Ambassador David Spencer, to the Trade Negotiations Committee, TN/DS/14 (Nov. 25, 2005). For a discussion of proposals, see International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Review of the Dispute Settlement Understanding, Doha Round Briefing Series, Nov. 2005, at [http://www.ictsd.org/pubs/dohabriefings/index.htm]. See, e.g., WTO documents TN/DS/W/79 (July 13, 2005), TN/DS/W/82 (Oct. 24, 2005), and TN/DS/W/82/Add.1 (Oct. 25, 2005), as corrected. Recently, at the request of the disputing parties, certain WTO panel proceedings have been open to the public through closed-circuit TV broadcast at the WTO. See WTO opens panel proceeding to public for the first time, WTO news item, Sept. 12, 2005; Registration begins for public hearings of “US/Canada — Continued suspension of obligations in the EC-hormones dispute” (complainant EC) panels on 27-28 September and 2-3 October 2006 in

Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Dispute Settlement in the World Trade Organization: An Overview

[5]

[6]

Geneva, WTO news item, June 26, 2006, at [http://www.wto.org/english/ news_ e/news_ e.htm]. See European Commission, “DSB Special Session: Non-paper on Panel Composition,” December 9, 2003, Ref. 575/03, at 5, at [http://trade-info.cec.eu.int/doclib/html/ 115445.htm]. Some of these issues are discussed in CRS Report RL31860, U.S.-European Union Disputes in the World Trade Organization, by Raymond J. Ahearn and Jeanne J. Grimmett. See Uruguay Round Agreements Act (URAA) Statement of Administrative Action, H.Doc. 103-316, vol. 1, at 1032-33. Implementing legislation states that “[n]o provision of any of the Uruguay Round Agreements, nor the application of any such provision to any person or circumstance, that is inconsistent with any law of the United States shall have effect.” URAA, § 102(a)(1); see also H.Rept. 103-826, Pt. I, at 25. Note that federal courts have held that WTO reports are not binding on the judiciary. For example, Corus Staal BV v. Department of Commerce, 395 F.3d 1343 (Fed. Cir. 2005). See generally CRS Report RS22154, WTO Decisions and Their Effect in U.S. Law, by Jeanne J. Grimmett.

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[7]

31

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In: Globalization Policies and Issues Editor: Brandon J. Sherman

ISBN: 978-1-61122-930-1 © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

Chapter 4

TRADE REMEDIES: A PRIMER

*

Vivian C. Jones ABSTRACT

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The United States and many of its trading partners use laws known as trade remedies to mitigate the adverse impact of various trade practices on domestic industries and workers. U.S. antidumping laws (19 U.S.C. 1673 et seq.) authorize the imposition of duties if (1) the International Trade Administration (ITA) of the Department of Commerce determines that foreign merchandise is being, or likely to be sold in the United States at less than fair value, and (2) the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) determines that an industry in the United States is materially injured or threatened with material injury, or that the establishment of an industry is materially retarded, due to imports of that merchandise. A similar statute (19 U.S.C. 1671 et seq.) authorizes the imposition of countervailing duties if the ITA finds that the government of a country or any public entity has provided a subsidy on the manufacture, production, or export of the merchandise, and the ITC determines injury. U.S. safeguard laws (19 U.S.C. 2251 et seq.) authorize the President to provide import relief from injurious surges of imports resulting from fairly competitive trade from all countries. Other safeguard laws authorize relief for import surges from communist countries (19 U.S.C. 2436) and from China (19 U.S.C. 2451). In each case, the ITC conducts an investigation, forwards recommendations to the President, and the President may act on the recommendation, modify it, or do nothing. WTO dispute settlement panels and Appellate Body rulings found that the United States is in violation of its WTO obligations with regard to two U.S. trade remedy laws — the Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset (CDSOA, also known as the Byrd Amendment) and the Antidumping Act of 1916, which was subsequently repealed in P.L. 108-429. In the 109th Congress, S. 1932 (signed by the President on February 8, 2006, P.L. 109-171) repealed the CDSOA while allowing disbursements under the act to continue for merchandise entering the United States before October 1, 2007. Other trade remedy-related legislation, including H.R. 3283 (English, passed House July 27, 2005), S. 1421 (Collins), and H.R. 3306 (Rangel) seek to modify AD and CVD provisions in *

This is an edited, reformatted and augmented version of Congressional Research Service Report RL32371 dated June 14, 2006.

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Vivian C. Jones order to target alleged circumvention of trade remedy duties, particularly on subject imports from China. Other bills containing similar provisions include S. 593 (Collins) and its companion bill H.R. 1216 (English). Section 3 of H.R. 1493 (Tim Ryan), defines manipulation of foreign exchange rates as a countervailable subsidy. H.R. 4217 (Knollenberg) seeks to allow U.S. manufacturers to participate in AD and CVD investigations as interested parties. H.R. 5529 (English), seeks to make modifications to safeguard laws, as well as amending AD and CVD legislation. This report explains, first, U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty statutes and investigations. Second, it describes safeguard statutes and investigative procedures. Third, it briefly presents trade-remedy related legislation in the 109th Congress. The appendix provides a chart outlining U.S. trade remedy statutes, major actors, and the effects of these laws.

INTRODUCTION The United States and many of its trading partners use trade remedy laws to lessen the adverse impact of various trade practices on domestic industries, producers, and workers. These laws are deemed consistent with U.S. international obligations provided they conform to the trade remedy provisions agreed to as part of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations (1986-1994) and other trade agreements to which the U.S. is a party.

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Overview The three most frequently applied U.S. trade remedy laws are antidumping, countervailing duty, and safeguards. Enforcement of these laws is primarily carried out through the administrative investigations and actions of two U.S. government agencies: the International Trade Administration (ITA) of the Department of Commerce, and the International Trade Commission (ITC). Antidumping (AD) laws provide relief to domestic industries that have been, or are threatened with, the adverse impact of imports sold in the U.S. market at prices that are shown to be less than fair market value. The relief provided is an additional import duty placed on the dumped imports. Countervailing duty (CVD) laws are designed to give a similar kind of relief to domestic industries that have been, or are threatened with, the adverse impact of imported goods that have been subsidized by a foreign government or public entity, and can therefore be sold at lower prices than similar goods produced in the United States. The relief provided is an additional import duty placed on the subsidized imports. Safeguard (also referred to as escape clause) laws give domestic industries relief from import surges of goods that are fairly traded. The most frequently applied safeguard law, Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974, is designed to give domestic industry the opportunity to adjust to the new competition and remain competitive. The relief provided is generally an additional temporary import duty, a temporary import quota, or a combination of both. Safeguard laws also require presidential action in order for relief to be put into effect. This report outlines the statutory authority, investigative procedures, and statistical outcomes for (1) U.S. AD and CVD actions and (2) U.S. safeguard actions. Other trade

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Trade Remedies: A Primer

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remedy laws not discussed in this report include Section 337 of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, which treats as unlawful imports sold through unfair competition or products infringing U.S. intellectual property rights. Sections 301-310 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended, give the U.S. Trade Representative authority to enforce U.S. rights under international trade agreements and act against unfair foreign trade practices that burden U.S. trade. Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) programs provide readjustment assistance for firms and workers who have suffered due to increased imports as a result of trade agreements. A brief description of these trade remedy laws appears in an appendix to this report.

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Congressional Interest Trade remedies have been the focus of much domestic and international debate in recent years. On the domestic front, the preservation of U.S. authority to “enforce rigorously its trade laws” was a key negotiating objective included in presidential Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) in the 107th Congress (P.L.107-210). Internationally, some WTO Member nations have become concerned that the worldwide use of trade remedies seems to have intensified since the enactment of the Uruguay Round Agreements in 1995. In addition, developing nations have begun using trade remedy actions more frequently, whereas they were almost exclusively tools used by developed nations in the past. Concern over increasing use of trade remedy measures has led to WTO negotiations on the Agreement on Implementation of Article VI (Antidumping Agreement) and the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (Subsidies Agreement) during the Doha Round of negotiations, despite the efforts of U.S. trade negotiators and some in Congress to keep them off the table. Before the Doha meeting, the House of Representatives passed H.Con.Res. 262 (107th Congress) by a vote of 410-4, calling on the President, while at the Ministerial and in subsequent WTO negotiations, “to preserve the ability of the United States to enforce rigorously its trade laws,” including its AD and CVD laws, and “avoid agreements which lessen the effectiveness” of unfair trade disciplines and “to ensure that United States exports are not subject to the abuse use of trade laws ... by other countries.” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick defended the decision to negotiate on AD and CVD issues by highlighting the U.S. opportunity to negotiate an “offensive agenda” on trade remedies to address the increasing “misuse” of trade remedy measures in other countries against U.S. exporters. Many Members of Congress have expressed support for maintaining and strengthening U.S. trade remedies in the face of growing import competition. Any modifications to these statutes could affect investment and employment in important domestic industries. For this reason, congressional oversight and presidential reporting requirements with regard to any negotiations leading to changes in the trade remedy laws were included as conditions to the grant of presidential Trade Promotion Authority. Moreover, WTO dispute settlement and Appellate Body panels have found that two U.S. trade remedy provisions, the Antidumping Act of 1916 and the Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA), violate U.S. obligations under the WTO [1]. The Antidumping Act of 1916 was subsequently repealed in the Miscellaneous Trade and Technical Corrections Act of 2004 (Section 2006 of P.L. 108-429, December 3, 2004). Despite considerable

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Vivian C. Jones

congressional resistance to repealing the CDSOA, a section proposing its repeal was included in the House version of the FY2006 budget reconciliation bill (H.R. 4241, introduced November 7, 2005). This measure was subsequently included in the version of the budget reconciliation bill that passed the House and Senate, and was signed by the President on February 8, 2006 (P.L.109-171).

AD AND CVD LAWS AND INVESTIGATIONS

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U.S. Statutes and Eligibility Criteria Statutory authority for AD investigations and remedial actions is found in Subtitle B of Title VII of the Tariff Act of 1930, as added by the Trade Agreements Act of 1979, and subsequently amended. The law permits the imposition of antidumping duties if (1) the Department of Commerce [2]determines that the foreign subject merchandise is being, or likely to be, sold in the United States at less than fair value, and (2) the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) determines that an industry in the United States is materially injured or threatened with material injury, [3]or that the establishment of an industry is materially retarded, by reason of imports of that merchandise [4]. Statutory authority for CVD investigations is found in Subtitle A of Title VII of the Tariff Act of 1930, [5] as added by the Trade Agreements Act of 1979 and as subsequently amended. The statute provides that countervailing duties will be imposed, first, when Commerce determines that the government of a country or any public entity within the territory of a country is providing, directly or indirectly, a countervailable subsidy with respect to the manufacture, production, or export of the subject merchandise that is imported or sold (or likely to be sold) for importation into the United States. Second, in the case of a country that is party to the WTO Subsidies Agreement, that has assumed similar obligations with respect to the United States, or that has entered into certain other agreements with the United States, the ITC must determine that a domestic industry is materially injured or threatened with material injury, or that the establishment of a domestic industry is materially retarded, by reason of imports of that merchandise [6]. Petition and Eligibility.AD and CVD investigations are conducted on the basis of a petition filed simultaneously with the ITC and the ITA on behalf of a domestic industry, or by the ITA on its own initiative [7]. Industry representatives may include domestic manufacturers, producers, or wholesalers of a product like the investigated imports, unions, other groups of workers, trade associations or other associations of manufacturers, producers or wholesalers. Petitioners may allege (1) a subsidy (CVD petition), (2) sales at less than fair value (AD petition), or (3) that both conditions exist [8]. If a proceeding is initiated by petition, the ITA must determine within 20 days (1) whether the petition accurately alleges the existence of dumping or subsidies, (2) whether there is enough information in the petition to support the investigation, and (3) whether the petition has been filed by or on behalf of an industry [9]. If the ITA’s determination at this stage is negative, the petition is dismissed and the proceedings end [10].

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U.S. International Obligations Disciplines regulating the use of antidumping laws appear in Article VI of the General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and in the Antidumping Agreement adopted in the Uruguay Round (1986-1994) of trade negotiations. The Uruguay Round Antidumping Agreement outlines requirements regarding procedures to be used in antidumping investigations and the implementation and duration of AD measures. Article XVI of the GATT and the Subsidies Agreement negotiated during the Uruguay Round regulate the use of subsidies and countervailing measures. The Subsidies Agreement defines the term “subsidy” as a financial contribution by a government or public body within the territory of a WTO Member, which confers a benefit. Three categories of subsidies are identified: (1) prohibited subsidies, (2) actionable subsidies, and (3) non-actionable subsidies. Also, to be covered by the Subsidies Agreement, subsidies need to be specific to an industry, except that prohibited subsidies (i.e., export subsidies and import substitution subsidies) are considered per se specific [11] The Subsidies Agreement also provides transitional rules for developed countries and Members in transition to a market economy, as well as special and differential treatment rules for developing countries. Other trade agreements that the United States has adopted also include specific AD and CVD articles. For example, article 1902 of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) states that each party to the agreement reserves the right to apply its antidumping and countervailing duty laws to any other party. The right of parties to change or modify these laws is also retained, provided the amending statute specifically states that the amendment applies to the other NAFTA parties; the other parties are notified; and the changes are either consistent with the GATT and WTO agreements, or the object and purpose of the NAFTA and its AD and CVD chapter. Articles 1903 and 1904 allow a review of statutory amendments and a review of final AD and CVD determinations by a binational panel. The Agreement also puts a consultation and dispute settlement system in place so that other parties to the agreement may challenge statutory changes. In addition, final determinations in AD and CVD cases may be subject to binational panel review instead of judicial review.

AD and CVD Investigations Although antidumping and countervailing duty laws address fundamentally different forms of unfair trade behavior, the remedies provided (a duty reflecting the “dumping margin” or amount of subsidy), the investigation processes, and the economic effects of the actions are similar. In some cases, AD and CVD investigations are also conducted simultaneously on a targeted product. Therefore, for purposes of this report, the investigation of AD and CVD petitions will be addressed together. Prior to the imposition of an AD or CVD order, the ITA and ITC conduct a detailed investigative process. Some political economists opposing this type of import relief have pointed out that the administrative nature of the AD and CVD investigative processes makes it easier to institute protectionist measures. They maintain that since the statutes delegate to the administrative agencies the authority to investigate and to impose the duties, the decisions (and possible negative political fallout) are removed from the President and Congress [12]. In

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addition, since a certain amount of prior knowledge is necessary in order to follow the procedure, the process is engineered so that it does not lend itself to close public or media scrutiny [13]. Some analysts have also criticized the administrative agencies (particularly the ITA) for conducting investigations that are biased in favor of domestic industries [14]. Supporters of trade remedies point out that current AD and CVD procedures have been worked out through painful and difficult multilateral trade negotiations, and that this is one of the reasons that the investigative procedure is so detailed. Furthermore, supporters maintain that the process is detailed because investigations must be transparent and provide a voice for all parties concerned [15]. Preliminary Determinations. As soon as a petition is filed, the ITC begins to investigate whether there is a reasonable indication of injury. If the ITC’s preliminary determination is negative, or the ITC determines those imports of the subject merchandise are negligible, the proceedings end. The ITC must make its preliminary determination within 45 days after a petition is filed or an investigation is begun by the ITA on its own initiative [16]. If the ITC’s preliminary determination is affirmative, the ITA begins its preliminary investigation to determine whether the alleged unfair practice exists. In CVD cases, the ITA has 65 days to make a preliminary determination, or 130 days at the petitioner’s request or if the case is extraordinarily complicated [17]. In AD cases, the ITA must make its determination within 140 days, or within 190 days at the petitioner’s request or if the case is extraordinarily complicated [18]. If the ITA determines in the affirmative, it also estimates a subsidy margin or a weighted-average dumping margin for each exporter or producer individually investigated, and an “all-others rate” for all other exporters [19]. If the ITA finds that there is a reasonable indication of dumping or subsidies, it orders the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (Customs) to delay the final computation of all duties on imports of the targeted merchandise (suspension of liquidation) until the case is resolved and to require the posting of cash deposits, bonds, or other appropriate securities to cover the duties (plus the estimated dumping or subsidy margin) for each subsequent entry into the U.S. market. If the ITA’s determination is negative, both the ITA and the ITC continue the investigation. Final Determinations. In CVD investigations, the ITA makes its final determination within 75 days after the date of its preliminary determination. In AD cases, ITA’s final determination must be made within 75 days after the preliminary determination, or within 135 days at the request of exporters (if the preliminary determination was affirmative) or at the request of the petitioner (if the preliminary determination was negative) [20]. Before issuing a final determination, the ITA must hold a hearing upon request of any party to the proceeding. If the ITA’s final determination is negative, the proceedings end, and any suspension of liquidation is terminated, bonds and other securities are released, and deposits are refunded. If the ITA’s final determination is affirmative, it orders the suspension of liquidation if it has not already done so. If the ITA’s preliminary determination is affirmative, the ITC must make its final determination (a) within 120 days of the ITA’s preliminary affirmative determination or (b) within 45 days of an affirmative final determination by the ITA, whichever is later. If the ITA’s preliminary determination was negative, the ITC’s determination must be made within 75 days of the ITA’s affirmative final determination. If the final determination of the ITC is affirmative, the ITA issues a countervailing or antidumping duty order within seven days of notification of the ITC’s decision. The duty

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imposed is equal to the net subsidy or dumping margin calculated by the ITA. If the final determination of the ITC is negative, no AD or CVD duties are imposed, any suspension of liquidation is terminated, bonds or other security are released, and deposits are refunded. Critical Circumstances. If a petitioner alleges that critical circumstances exist in an AD or CVD case, an extra step in the investigation is required. In CVD cases, the ITA must promptly determine whether there is a reasonable basis to expect that the alleged subsidy is inconsistent with the WTO Subsidies Agreement and that massive imports of the subject merchandise have occurred over a relatively short period. In AD cases, the ITA determines (1) if there is a reasonable basis to suspect either that there is a history of dumping and there is material injury by reason of dumped imports in the United States or elsewhere, or if the importer knew or should have known that the exporter was selling the merchandise at less than fair value and knew that there was likely to be material injury by reason of such sales; and (2) whether massive imports of the merchandise have occurred over a relatively short period. If the ITA makes an affirmative critical circumstances finding, it extends the suspension of liquidation of any unliquidated entries of merchandise into the United States retroactively to 90 days before the suspension of liquidation was first ordered. Whether or not the ITA’s initial critical circumstances determination is affirmative, if it’s final determination on subsidies or dumping is affirmative, the ITA includes with its overall final determination an additional determination on critical circumstances. If the final determination on critical circumstances is affirmative, retroactive duties, if not yet ordered, are ordered on unliquidated entries at this time [21]. The ITC also makes a critical circumstances injury finding along with its final determination. If both the ITC and the ITA make affirmative critical circumstances determinations, any AD or CVD duty order applies to the goods for which the retroactive suspension of liquidation was ordered. If the final critical circumstances determination of either agency is negative, any retroactive suspension of liquidation is terminated [22]. Termination of Investigation and Suspension Agreements. The ITA may terminate or suspend antidumping or countervailing duty proceedings at any point in favor of an alternative agreement with the foreign government (in the case of subsidies) or the exporters (in the case of dumping). The ITA or the ITC may terminate an investigation if the petitioner withdraws the petition, or the ITA may terminate an investigation it initiated [23]. If the ITA decides to terminate an investigation in favor of accepting an agreement with the foreign government (CVD) or exporter (AD) to limit the volume of imports, the ITA must be satisfied that the agreement is in the public interest. Public interest factors include (1) a finding that the imposition of duties would have a greater adverse impact on U.S. consumers than an alternative agreement; (2) an assessment of the relative economic impact on U.S. international economic interests; and (3) a consideration of the relative impact of such an agreement on the domestic industry producing like merchandise [24]. The ITA may suspend an investigation if (1) the government of the country alleged to be providing the subsidy, or the exporters accounting for substantially all of the subject merchandise agree to eliminate the subsidy or dumping margin, to offset the net subsidy completely, or to cease exports of the subject merchandise into the United States within six months of the suspension of the investigation; (2) if there are extraordinary circumstances [25] and the government or exporters agree to take action that will completely eliminate the injurious effect of the subject imports (including a quantitative restriction agreement with a

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foreign government); or (3) the agreement concerns alleged sales at less than fair value from a non-market economy country and that country agrees to restrict exports of its merchandise into the United States [26]. Before suspending an investigation, the ITA must be satisfied that the suspension is in the public interest and that the agreement can be effectively monitored by the United States [27]. WTO Negotiations. Article 18 of the WTO Subsidies Agreement authorizes the termination and suspension of investigations through the use of voluntary “undertakings.” These undertakings may involve (1) the government of the exporting Member agreeing to eliminate or limit the subsidy, or take some other action concerning its effects; or (2) the exporter agreeing to revise its prices to eliminate the injurious effects of the subsidy. A similar measure (Article 8) in the Antidumping Agreement allows the use of “price undertakings,” or voluntary, mutually agreed upon, price increases on the part of the importer to eliminate the injurious effects of the imports. Price increases may not be higher than the duty necessary to eliminate the dumping margin, and if a lower increase would be adequate to remove the injury, a lesser increase is recommended. Many WTO Members are critical of the rapidly expanding use of antidumping and subsidies measures in general and, in particular, the perceived U.S. use of inflated dumping and subsidies margins. As a result, these Members have recommended that Doha Round negotiations on the Antidumping and Subsidies Agreements strengthen the undertaking provisions and require increased use of these voluntary measures in AD and CVD actions [28]. Administrative and Sunset Reviews. Each year, during the anniversary month of the publication of an AD or CVD duty order, any interested party may request in writing an administrative review of the order. The ITA may also self-initiate a review. If none of the interested parties request a review, and if there is no objection, the review may be deferred for an additional year. During the review process, the ITA recalculates the amount of the net subsidy or dumping margin and may adjust the amount of AD or CVD duties on the subject merchandise. Suspension agreements are also monitored for compliance and reviewed in a similar fashion. The ITA must make a preliminary determination in CVD administrative reviews within 120 (or 180 days if the 120 day deadline is not practicable), and a final determination within 245 days (which may be extended up to 365 days). Preliminary determinations in AD reviews must be made in 90-150 days, and final determinations in 180300 days [29]. Administrative reviews are also mandated under certain circumstances by the WTO Antidumping and Subsidies Agreements. Article 11.2 of the Antidumping Agreement and Article 21.2 of the Subsidies Agreement require authorities to periodically review the need for continued imposition of duties, where warranted. Authorities must also conduct examinations at the request of interested parties to examine whether the continued imposition of the duties are necessary to offset the dumping or subsidies, and whether the injury would be likely to continue or recur if the duty were removed, or varied, or both. Changed Circumstances Review. An interested party may also request a “changed circumstances” review at any time. In this case, the ITA must determine within 45 days whether or not to conduct the review. If the ITA decides that there is good cause to conduct the review, the results must be issued within 270 days of initiation, or within 45 days of initiation if all interested parties agree to the outcome of the review [30].

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“New Shipper” Review. If the ITA receives a request from an exporter or producer of merchandise subject to AD or CVD orders who (1) did not export the subject merchandise during the initial period of investigation and (2) was not affiliated with any producer or exporter who did, it must conduct a review to establish an individual AD or CV duty rate for that exporter or producer [31]. A preliminary determination in a new shipper review may take up to 180 days (or up to 300 days if “extraordinarily complicated”). Final determinations of the duty rate may take from 90 to150 days, depending on complexity [32]. While the new shipper review is being conducted, the ITA is required to direct the Customs Service to allow (at the option of the importer) the posting of a bond or security in lieu of a cash deposit for each shipment of merchandise entering the United States until the review is completed and the AD or CV duty rate is established. Some U.S. producers have complained that Customs is not able to collect the actual amount of duties owed on subject merchandise, and have cited the new shipper bonding privilege as a “loophole” that importers exploit in order to circumvent the duties. For example, Louisiana crawfish producers estimated, and Customs confirmed, that between 2002 and 2004, Customs collected only $25.5 million of about $195.5 million in AD duties owed on crawfish. An estimated 80 percent of the duties owed were assessed on targeted merchandise from the Peoples’ Republic of China [33]. Sunset Reviews. Before passage of the Uruguay Round Agreements Act (P.L. 103-465, URAA), AD and CVD orders had no set termination date, and generally were revoked only if Commerce determined through three consecutive annual administrative reviews that no dumping or subsidies had occurred. Currently, sunset reviews must be conducted on each AD or CVD order no later than once every five years [34]. The ITA determines whether dumping or subsidies would be likely to continue or resume if an order were to be revoked or a suspension agreement terminated, and the ITC conducts a similar review to determine whether injury to the domestic industry would be likely to continue or resume. If both determinations are affirmative, the duty or suspension agreement remains in place. If either determination is negative, the order is revoked, or the suspension agreement is terminated [35]. Sunset reviews are required in the WTO Antidumping (Article 11.3) and Subsidies (Article 21.3) Agreements. Outcome of AD and CVD Investigations. According to ITC statistics (see Table 1), there were 1,058 antidumping cases with final dispositions conducted between fiscal years 1980 and 2003 [36]. Fifty-nine investigations (6%) were terminated prior to the ITC preliminary determination because the petition was withdrawn, generally because the ITA determined that the petition was not accurate or adequate, or because the domestic industry was not adequately represented. The ITC made negative preliminary determinations in 186 cases (18%), thus terminating these investigations. Affirmative preliminary determinations were made in 805 cases, meaning that the investigations continued further. Of the cases that continued, 148 investigations (18%) were terminated before the final ITC determination, because the petition was withdrawn, because Commerce made a negative dumping determination, or because suspension agreements were negotiated (11 cases, or 1%). At the final stage, the ITC made 452 affirmative determinations (42%) and 224 (21%) negative determinations. During the same time period (see Table 1), the ITC conducted 452 CVD investigations. Fifty-three cases (12%) were terminated before the ITC preliminary determination. In the preliminary stage, the ITC made 257 affirmative determinations and eighty-nine (20%)

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negative determinations. Eighty-six cases (19%) were terminated after the preliminary determination, including cases where the petition was withdrawn, the ITA made a negative subsidy determination, or the ITA suspended the investigation. The ITC made affirmative final determinations in 117 cases (26%) and 107 negative final determinations (24%). Table 1. Outcome of AD and CVD Investigations, FY1980-FY2003 Antidumping Investigations Total= 1058 Terminated or Withdrawn before ITC Preliminary Determination Preliminary ITC Determinations Affirmative (Investigation Continues - see disposition below) Negative (Investigation Terminated) Terminated or Withdrawn after ITC Affirmative Preliminary Determination but before ITC Final Determinationa Final ITC Determinations (requires affirmative prelim. determination above) Affirmative Negative

59

6%

805a 186 148

18% 14%

441 224

42% 21%

53

12%

257 89 86

20% 19%

117 107

26% 24%

Countervailing Duty InvestigationsTotal= 452

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Terminated or Withdrawn before ITC Preliminary Determination Preliminary ITC Determinations Affirmative (Investigation Continues - see disposition below) Negative (Investigation Terminated) Terminated or Withdrawn before ITC Final Determination Final ITC Determinations Affirmative Negative

Source: ITC Report, November 2004. a. Eight AD cases were transition cases in 1980 and had no preliminary investigations.

AD and CVD Duty Orders by Product Group. Figure 1 illustrates the make up of AD and CVD orders in effect as of January 2 7, 2005 by product group. The largest group of these orders are applied to imports of products associated with the steel industry, including mill products (carbon steel wire rod, hot-rolled carbon steel flat products, etc.), iron and steel pipe products (such as welded large diameter line pipe, and oil country tubular goods), and other products of iron and steel (stainless and carbon steel butt-weld pipe fittings, ball bearings, barbed wire and barbless wire strand, etc.). The next largest group of duty orders is applied to chemicals and pharmaceuticals — the vast majority of which are chemicals used in manufacturing processes. The third largest group consists of agricultural and forest products including softwood lumber, honey, pasta, sugar, preserved mushrooms, shrimp, crawfish tail meat, and pistachios. Relatively few orders are currently in effect on finished consumer goods included in the miscellaneous manufactures, transportation, textiles, and electronics categories (metal chairs and tables, stainless steel cookware, petroleum wax candles, cotton shop towels, etc.).

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Source: ITC.

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Figure 1. AD and CVD Orders in Place by Product Group.

Source: ITC. Figure 2. AD and CVD Orders In Place by Country.

Orders by Country. Figure 2 shows AD and CVD duty orders in effect as of February 4, 2004, by product country of origin. Products from the European Union lead this group with fifty-two AD orders and nineteen CVD orders (about 20% of all orders in effect), followed by China with fifty-three AD orders (15%), Japan (thirty-one AD orders, or about 9%), and South Korea (nineteen AD orders, six CVD orders, about 7%).

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Antidumping Act of 1916 The earliest U.S. antidumping measure, the Antidumping Act of 1916, [37] made it unlawful to systematically import articles into the United States at prices substantially lower than the actual market value or wholesale price of the importswith the intent of destroying or injuring a domestic industry in the United States. The statute assigned criminal penalties and provided for a civil award of triple damages to the injured party. A WTO dispute resolution panel and the Appellate Body found that the law provides penalties not authorized by the Antidumping Agreement or the GATT, and therefore violates U.S. WTO obligations. The U.S. Congress subsequently repealed the law in Section 2006 of the Miscellaneous Tariff and Technical Corrections Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-429), but allowed three legal cases filed before the date of the repeal to go forward.

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Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act Section 1003 of P.L. 106-387, the “Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA) of 2000,” amended the Tariff Act of 1930 by requiring that all duties collected as a result of AD and CVD orders be redistributed to the petitioners (“affected domestic producers”) that have been injured by the subject imports. The funds must be used for certain “qualifying expenditures,” including employee training, research and development, manufacturing facilities, or equipment. Disbursements under the act amounted to $231 million in FY2001 and $330 million in FY2002, $190 million in FY2003 (an additional $50 million is held in reserve pending the resolution of a court case), and $284 million in FY2004 [38]. The CDSOA is controversial for several reasons. Opponents believe that the measure encourages the filing of AD and CVD petitions, limits the benefits of collections under the act to petitioners (placing other domestic producers at a competitive disadvantage), and exacerbates market inefficiencies caused by AD and CVD actions. Some also find it controversial because it was inserted into the legislation during conference and did not receive committee or floor consideration in either House. Supporters, including many in Congress and many domestic industry representatives, believe that money distributed through the CDSOA is a relatively small amount to invest in assisting U.S. companies to remain competitive. WTO dispute settlement panels have determined that the law violates U.S. obligations under the WTO Antidumping and Subsidies Agreements. The level of retaliation was determined through arbitration, and most of the co-complainants in the case, including the European Union, India, Japan, and Korea, received formal WTO authorization to “suspend concessions” on targeted U.S. goods in late November 2004. Canada began assessing additional tariffs on U.S. exports of live swine, cigarettes, oysters, and specialty fish in May 2005 [39]. The European Union established an additional 15% tariff on imports of certain women’s apparel, office supplies, crane trucks, sweet corn, and spectacle frames, also beginning on May 1, 2005 [40]. Other complainants have not yet begun retaliating as of this writing. According to WTO agreements, any retaliation is temporary, and may only occur if “recommendations and rulings are not implemented in a reasonable period of time [41].

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Despite considerable support for the CDSOA in Congress, a measure seeking to repeal the CDSOA was included in the FY2006 budget reconciliation bill (H.R. 4241, introduced November 11, 2005). The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that CDSOA repeal would save the government $3.2 billion over five years [42]. Although the Senate version of the budget reconciliation bill (S. 1932, introduced October 27, 2005) did not contain a similar provision, a section proposing CDSOA repeal was subsequently included in the version of the budget reconciliation bill that passed the House and Senate, and was signed by the President on February 8, 2006 (P.L. 109-171) [43].

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AD/CVD Legislation in the 109th Congress New Shipper Reviews. S. 695 (Cochran, introduced April 4, 2005), H.R. 1039 (Pickering, introduced March 2, 2005), and Section 4 of H.R. 3283 (English, passed House July 14, 2005) seek to amend the Tariff Act of 1930 to suspend for three years the requirement that ITA direct the Customs Service to accept bonds in lieu of cash deposits for any entries of subject merchandise while ITA conducts a new shipper review. The legislation would also require the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with other agencies, to submit a report to Congress no later than two years after enactment (1) recommending whether or not the suspension should be extended; and (2) assessing the effectiveness of administrative measures in addressing the difficulties that gave rise to the suspension of new shipper bonding privileges. H.R. 5529 (English, introduced June 6, 2006), the Trade Law Reform Act of 2006, also seeks to suspend the bonding privilege for a similar time period. Section 7 of H.R. 3306 (Rangel, introduced July 14, 2005) would strike the provision entirely, thus requiring all new shippers of targeted goods to post cash deposits. Application of Countervailing Duties to Nonmarket Economy Countries. CVD laws do not currently apply to nonmarket economy (NME) countries due to a previous determination by ITA (also statutorily responsible for making NME determinations) that there is no adequate way to measure market distortions caused by subsidies in economies that are not based on market principles [44]. Some Members of Congress are especially concerned that the Peoples’ Republic of China, currently classified by ITA as a nonmarket economy country, [45] is providing subsidies to many Chinese industries engaged in international exports. A related source of concern is that China is pegging its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar at artificially low levels, which some also believe is an unfair government subsidy. China is the United States’ third largest trading partner in terms of imports ($196 billion in 2004) and largest trading partner in terms of trade deficit ($164 billion in 2004). S. 593 (Collins, introduced March 10, 2005), H.R. 1216 (English, introduced March 10, 2005), section 3 of H.R. 3283 (English, introduced July 14, 2005), and section 3 of H.R. 3306 (Rangel, introduced July 14, 2005) seek to apply countervailing duty investigations to nonmarket economy (NME) countries. H.R. 1498 (Ryan, introduced April 6, 2005) seeks to clarify that China’s exchange-rate manipulation is actionable under the countervailing duty provisions, as well as product-specific safeguard measures in U.S. trade laws. H.R. 5529 (English, introduced June 6, 2006), the Trade Law Reform Act of 2006 would, in part, require that any Department of Commerce action to graduate a country to market economy be subject to Congressional approval.

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CDSOA Repeal.H.R. 4241 (Nussle, introduced November 11, 2005), the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, included a measure seeking to repeal the CDSOA as a government cost-saving measure. Since the original repeal language provided that any remaining money in AD and CVD accounts and all future duties would be deposited in the general fund of the Treasury, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that CDSOA repeal would save the government $3.2 billion over five years [46]. The Senate version of the budget reconciliation bill (S. 1932, passed Senate November 3, 2005) did not include CDSOA repeal, and any move to include it faced swift opposition in the Senate. In a letter to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, 25 Senators expressed that “we do not believe that the budget reconciliation process should be used to substantively change U.S. trade law.” [47].An additional letter, signed by Senators Baucus, Byrd, Conrad, and Inouye (ranking members of the Senate Finance, Appropriations, Budget, and Commerce committees, respectively), asked Senator Frist to “make certain that the Senate not accede to any provision to repeal or modify CDSOA that may be unwisely included by the House in its reconciliation package” [48]. On November 18, 2005, the House inserted the text of H.R. 4241 into S. 1932, and passed an amended version of S. 1932 — including the CDSOA repeal measure, by a vote of 217-215. Despite a motion to instruct Senate conferees to insist that CDSOA repeal not be included in the S. 1932 conference report, House and Senate conferees agreed to include a compromise provision that would repeal the CDSOA as of the date of enactment of S. 1932, but would allow the disbursement of duties on all subject merchandise entering the United States before October 1, 2007. The House passed the conference report on December 19, 2005, by a vote of 212-206). The Senate ultimately passed the conference report by a vote of 51-50 with Vice President Dick Cheney casting the deciding vote. However, due to a point of order upheld in the Senate the conference report was passed with amendment, meaning that the House was required to take up the conference report again. The House gave final approval on February 1, 2006, with a vote of 216-214 [49]. The budget reconciliation bill, including CDSOA repeal, was signed by the President on February 8, 2006 (P.L. 109-171). “Interested Party” Status for Downstream Producers. Many goods subject to trade remedy actions are manufacturing inputs (such as steel and cement) used by downstream U.S. industries (such domestic automobile and construction manufacturers). Since AD and CVD actions often lead to higher prices for the subject merchandise, many industrial consumers are concerned that their products, in turn, are less competitive due to the price increases on inputs. H.R. 4217, the American Manufacturing Competitiveness Act (Knollenberg, introduced November 3, 2005), seeks to amend existing AD and CVD laws so that downstream manufacturers may be considered “interested parties” and may participate fully as such in trade remedy proceedings.

SAFEGUARD (ESCAPE CLAUSE) MEASURES “Safeguard” or “escape clause” trade laws are designed to provide domestic industries with relief from injurious import surges resulting from fairly competitive trade. In order to obtain relief, the ITC must determine that a domestic industry is substantially injured by import surges. Presidential action is necessary to obtain relief under these statutes.

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Although individual U.S. safeguard actions (in particular, the 2002 action on steel) have been the subject of intense debate, on the whole, many economists find safeguard measures less objectionable than AD or CVD actions. Some reasons for this include their temporary nature, the requirement that industries take steps to positively adjust to import competition, the higher injury threshold, and the requirement of Presidential action [50].

Statutory Authority Sections 201-204 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended, [51] provide relief for imports from all countries. Investigations under this statute are often known as “section 201 investigations.” Section 406 of the same Act, as amended, [52] provides a similar relief for market-disruptive imports from communist countries. Section 421, added to the Trade Act of 1974 in October 2000, [53] is a country-specific trade remedy that applies only to injurious imports from China. Another provision, Section 302 of the NAFTA Implementation Act,54 provides similar relief due to injurious imports originating in Canada or Mexico.

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Section 201 Eligibility Criteria A Section 201 investigation may be initiated by the filing of a petition by any group considered to be representative of an industry, including a trade association, firm (especially if the firm is the sole domestic producer), a certified or recognized union, or group of workers [55]. An investigation may also be initiated at the request of the President, the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the House Ways and Means or Senate Finance Committees, or by the ITC itself [56]. The ultimate goal of a section 201 action is to facilitate a domestic industry’s positive adjustment to import competition. The petition for relief must also include a statement describing specific purposes for which the action is being sought (e.g., to allow time for the domestic industry to transfer its resources into other productive pursuits) and may include a plan submitted by the petitioner to facilitate the industry’s positive adjustment to import competition (if a plan is not filed with the petition, it must be filed within 120 days). Section 201 relief may apply to imports of the targeted merchandise from all countries or from any country specifically identified as a cause of the import surges.

U.S. International Obligations Article XIX of the GATT, Emergency Action on Imports of Particular Products, authorizes contracting parties to “suspend the obligation in whole or in part or to modify the concession” in the event of “unforeseen developments” caused by obligations or tariff concessions under the Agreement [57]. The WTO Safeguards Agreement provides rules for the application of Article XIX. Under the Agreement, safeguard measures are considered “emergency” actions with respect to imports of particular products. WTO provisions require that safeguard measures: (1) be time-limited; (2) be imposed only when imports are found to cause or threaten serious injury to a competing domestic industry; and (3) be applied on a

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non-selective (i.e., most-favored-nation) basis, and (4) be progressively liberalized while in effect. In addition, the Member imposing a safeguard is expected to maintain a substantially equivalent level of concessions between it and exporting Members affected by the safeguard. To achieve this, Members may agree on compensation; if negotiations fail, the exporting Member may, in certain circumstances, suspend concessions vis a vis the Member imposing the safeguard. NAFTA Provisions. Article 8 of the NAFTA allows any party subject to the agreement to use bilateral (within the NAFTA) “emergency actions” if an import surge or a duty reduction is a substantial cause of serious injury to a domestic industry. Consultations between affected parties are required. The remedy allowed is a suspension in the further reduction of a duty, or an increase in the rate of duty at a level not to exceed (1) the most-favored-nation (MFN) applied rate of duty in effect at the time the action is taken, or (2) the MFN applied rate of duty in effect on the day immediately preceding the date of entry into force of the NAFTA. In the case of seasonal products, the duty rate applied cannot exceed the MFN applied rate of duty that was in effect on the good for the corresponding season immediately preceding the date of entry into force of the NAFTA. For most products, the term of a safeguard action may not last more than three years. Each party to the NAFTA also retains the right to engage in global safeguard actions under Article XIX of the GATT, but must exclude other parties to the NAFTA unless (1) imports from a party, considered individually, account for a substantial share of the imports and (2) imports from a party, considered individually, or in extreme circumstances, collectively, contribute importantly to the injury, or threat thereof, caused by imports. Proposed emergency actions are not subject to dispute settlement proceedings under the NAFTA. Safeguard provisions are also included in the U.S.-Jordan Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the U.S.-Singapore FTA and the U.S.-Chile FTA.

Section 201 Safeguard Investigations ITC Role. The ITC determines whether the targeted merchandise is being imported in such increased quantities that it is a “substantial cause of serious injury, or threat of serious injury” [58] to the domestic industry producing articles “like or directly competitive with” the imported article [59]. The ITC must normally make its injury determination within 120 days, but it may take up to 30 additional days to make a determination if the investigation is extraordinarily complicated. If the ITC finds in the affirmative, it also provides the President with one or more remedy recommendations. The ITC’s report must be submitted to the President within 180 days of the petition, or within 240 days if critical circumstances are alleged [60]. Provisional Relief. If critical circumstances are alleged to exist and the petitioner requests that provisional relief be provided, the ITC must make a determination on critical circumstances within 60 days of receiving the petition. If the critical circumstances determination is affirmative, the ITC must also recommend the amount of relief necessary (preference is given to increasing or imposing a duty on imports) to prevent or remedy the injury. The ITC must immediately report its findings to the President [61].

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Within 30 days of receipt of an affirmative determination from the ITC, if the President finds that provisional relief is warranted, he may proclaim whatever provisional relief he believes necessary for a period not to exceed 200 days [62]. Perishable Products. Provisional relief may also be requested if the targeted merchandise is a perishable agricultural or citrus product. In these cases, the industry representative files a request with the USTR (in advance of a section 201 petition) for monitoring of imports of the product. The USTR determines (within 21 days) (1) if the imported product is a perishable agricultural or citrus product and (2) if there is a reasonable indication that the product is being imported in such increased quantities as to be, or likely to be, a substantial cause of serious injury, or threat of serious injury, to the domestic industry. If these determinations are affirmative, the USTR requests the ITC to monitor and investigate the imports for a limited time period, not to exceed two years [63]. In order to receive provisional relief, the perishable product must be the subject of ITC monitoring for at least 90 days prior to initiation of the investigation, and the petitioner must request provisional relief. The ITC has 21 days to make an injury determination, and immediately reports its findings and remedy recommendations to the President. If the ITC makes an affirmative determination the President has seven days to proclaim whatever provisional relief he considers necessary to prevent or remedy the serious injury. If the ITC’s determination is negative, no relief is given and the proceeding is terminated [64]. Presidential Action. Within 60 days of receipt of an affirmative ITC determination and report, the President is instructed to “take all appropriate and feasible action within his power which the President determines will facilitate efforts by the domestic industry to make a positive adjustment to import competition and provide greater economic and social benefits than costs.” On this basis, the President may (1) implement the ITC’s recommendations, (2) modify the ITC provisions or provide another form of remedy, or (3) take no action due to U.S. economic or national security interests [65]. Import relief may be granted for an initial period of up to four years and extended one or more times [66]. The total period of relief, however, may not exceed eight years. If the President decides not to provide relief, or to provide relief other than that recommended by the ITC, his decision may be overridden by a congressional joint resolution (adopted within 90 days), in which case the ITC’s recommendations would be implemented [67]. Midterm Review. The ITC is required to monitor section 201 actions as long as they stay in effect, especially with respect to the efforts and progress of the domestic industry and workers to adjust positively to import competition [68]. If the initial period of the action exceeds three years, the ITC is also required to submit a midterm review to the President and Congress. The ITC holds a hearing in which any interested parties may participate, and upon request, advises the President of the probable economic impact of any reduction, modification or termination of the action [69]. After the President receives the ITC review and seeks the advice of the Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of Labor, he may modify, reduce, or terminate the action if he determines that changed circumstances warrant such actions either because: (1) the domestic industry has not made adequate efforts to adjust positively to import competition, or (2) the effectiveness of the action has been impaired by changed economic circumstances. He may also terminate, modify, or reduce the action if the majority of industry representatives petition the President to do so on the basis of positive adjustment to import competition [70].

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The President may also extend an action. Between six and nine months before the safeguard action is scheduled to terminate, at the request of the President or if an industry petition is filed, the ITC must investigate to determine whether an extension of the action is necessary and if the domestic industry is making positive adjustment to import competition. Within 60 days of the termination date, the ITC must transmit the results of the investigation and its determination, unless the President specifies a different date [71]. Section 201 Outcomes. In the seventy-three section 201 safeguard investigations conducted from 1975 to date, the ITC has recommended some form of relief 47% of the time. The President has provided import relief in 26 instances (35.6%) [72]. Figure 3 illustrates the outcome of section 201 cases from FY1975 to the present. In the cases in which the President granted relief, the most common form has been tariff increases, followed by adjustment assistance, tariff rate quotas, or some combination thereof.

Figure 3. Outcome of Section 201 Safeguard Cases, 1975-Present.

Figure 4. Safeguard (Section 201) Petitions and Outcome by Product Group.

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Figure 4 shows section 201 safeguard petitions and their outcome by product group. The largest number of petitions has been filed in the category of miscellaneous manufactures, such as footwear, stainless steel flatware, fishing tackle, fishing rods, and clothespins. Agricultural products are the second largest category, including asparagus, mushrooms, shrimp, honey, roses, and cut flowers. It appears, generally, that a greater percentage of domestic producers of end-use consumer goods have filed and obtained relief through safeguard petitions as opposed to AD or CVD orders.

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2002 Steel Safeguard Action On June 5, 2001, President Bush responded to steel companies, union representatives, and many in Congress by requesting that the ITC begin a broad section 201 investigation on steel import surges. The request, covering more than 500 steel mill products, was forwarded to the ITC by then-USTR Robert Zoellick on June 22. The ITC staff grouped this large number of products into 33 product categories under four broad groupings. For each of these 33 categories, the ITC investigated whether or not imports of the subject merchandise were a substantial cause of serious injury to the domestic steel industry. On September 17, 2001, the ITC began a series of hearings on the issue of injury to the domestic steel industry, and on October 22, 2001, made an affirmative determination in 16 of the 33 product categories. Products in the remaining 17 categories were dismissed from further consideration. The ITC continued the remedy phase of the investigation for the 16 categories, and held hearings in November 2001. On December 19, 2001, the ITC submitted its findings and remedy recommendations to the President [73]. On March 5, 2002, President Bush announced trade safeguard remedies for all products that the ITC had found substantial injury, except for two steel specialty categories [74]. The President’s implementation of safeguard measures on steel was controversial both domestically and internationally. A number of U.S. trading partners challenged the decision through the WTO, and on July 11, 2003, the dispute settlement panel found that the safeguard measures were inconsistent with U.S. WTO obligations. An Appellate Body determination confirmed the main points of the panel decision on November 10, 2003. After the WTO panel rulings, the European Union announced that it would retaliate by establishing substantial tariff penalties against $2 billion in imports from the United States beginning in December 2003. The President terminated section 201 safeguard measures on steel in December 8, 2003.75 The USTR stated that the termination was the result of a midterm review of the progress of the steel industry to cope with the increased competition and changed economic circumstances. The United States faced retaliation from the European Union equivalent to $2.2 billion in increased tariffs on U.S. exports due to WTO dispute settlement and Appellate Body findings. In the proclamation, the President continued the licensing and monitoring of imports of certain steel products and delegated the function to the Secretary of Commerce.

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Section 406 Relief Section 406 of the Trade Act of 1974, [76] as amended, was established to provide a remedy against market disruption caused by imports from Communist countries. This statute applies to any Communist country, whether or not it has received nondiscriminatory (normal trade relations) treatment. This provision was enacted out of concern that trade remedy laws already in place were insufficient to deal with a rapid influx of imports that can result from a Communist government’s control of its industry pricing levels and distribution processes. Section 406 investigations follow a similar format to section 201 proceedings, however, (1) the standard of injury (market disruption as opposed to “substantial cause of serious injury” or threat thereof) is lower; and (2) domestic industries are not required to plan for or demonstrate positive adjustment to import competition. Import relief may apply only to imports from the subject Communist country or countries. If the President decides to grant relief, he may do so for up to five years, with a possible additional three-year extension.

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“Surge Protection” from Chinese Imports A country-specific safeguard on imports from China is found in section 421 of the Trade Act of 1974 [77]. This provision, enacted in section 103 of Public Law 106-286, superseded section 406 with respect to goods from China after the President extended permanent nondiscriminatory (normal trade relations) treatment to China following its accession to the WTO [78]. The legislation implemented an anti-surge mechanism established under the U.S.China Bilateral Trade Agreement, concluded on November 15, 1999. This transitional safeguard measure is scheduled to terminate 12 years after China’s WTO accession. According to the Protocol on the Accession of China to the WTO, import relief may be granted “only for such period of time as may be necessary to prevent or remedy the market disruption.” If import relief is granted due to a relative increase in imports, China may retaliate by suspending equivalent trade concessions or obligations if the measure remains in effect for more than two years. If relief is granted due to an absolute increase in imports, China may retaliate after three years [79]. Although the procedure under section 421 action is similar to that under section 201, the section 421 safeguard is different in four major respects: (1) the statute provides relief for subject merchandise from China only, whereas the remedy in section 201 applies to subject imports from all countries; (2) consultations with Chinese trade authorities are required; (3) in addition to the ITC, the USTR takes part in the procedure and also submits recommendations to the President; and (4) the standard for relief is “market disruption” — a lower standard than in section 201 proceedings. To date, there have been six completed section 421 investigations, as follows: Pedestal Actuators (ITC case number TA-421-1), Wire Hangers (TA-421-2), Brake Drums and Rotors (TA-421-3), and Ductile Iron Waterworks Fittings (TA-421-4), Uncovered Innerspring Mattress Units (TA-421-5), Circular Welded Non-Alloy Steel Pipe from China (TA-421-06). The ITC made affirmative determinations in four of these cases and negative determinations in two cases (brake drums and rotors and innerspring mattress units). The President decided not to grant relief each of the four affirmative investigations because he determined that providing such relief was not in the national economic interest of the United States.

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Safeguard Legislation in the 109th Congress

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H.R. 1498 (Ryan, introduced April 6, 2005) seeks to clarify that China’s exchange-rate manipulation is actionable under the countervailing duty provisions, as well as productspecific safeguard measures in U.S. trade laws. This bill would apply only to the Chinaspecific safeguard, section 421 of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. 2451). H.R. 5529 (English, introduced June 6, 2006), seeks to make several changes to sections 201-204 of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. 2251-2254). These amendments include, first, a change in the injury standard in the law from “substantial cause of serious injury,” by instead requiring that the increased imports (1) “cause or threaten to cause” serious injury, and thus (2) need not be equal to or greater, or more important, than any other cause of injury. Second, the bill also adds to the criteria for determining serious injury by including changes in the level of sales, production, capacity utilization, profits and losses, and employment as factors that the ITC should take into account when making injury determinations. The bill also establishes that when making these evaluations, the timing and volume of the imports should be assessed in order to determine whether there has been a substantial increase in imports over a short period of time. Third, H.R. 5529 seeks to amend the criteria for presidential action in safeguard cases. Instead of determining whether or not implementing a remedy will provide “greater economic and social benefits that costs,” [80] the bill would require the President to ensure that providing a remedy would “not have an adverse impact on the United States clearly greater than the benefits of such action.” H.R. 5529 would also instruct the President to place more weight on (1) the economic and social costs to U.S. taxpayers, communities, and workers; and on (2) the impact of safeguard implementation on consumers and on domestic competition for inputs; than on (3) the impact on U.S. industries due to international obligations regarding compensation. According to the bill’s supporters, these amendments are proposed to increase the likelihood that the President would implement safeguard measures [81].

CONCLUSION Trade remedies are popular with many in Congress because they help to mitigate the adverse effects of international trade on domestic industry, producers, and workers. Certain key industries are facing the adverse effects of import competition, leading to factory closures and loss of domestic manufacturing jobs in many districts. In addition, service sector workers are feeling the effects of import competition due to offshore outsourcing. These factors, among others, are reasons that many in Congress do not support the repeal or weakening of these laws and insist that the United States must preserve the ability to “rigorously enforce its trade laws.” Competitive advantage and a liberalized world trading system create both winners and losers in domestic economies. Acting on legislation in a manner consistent with previously agreed upon multilateral commitments, balancing that action with the need to regulate and minimize unfair trade practices, and assisting domestic import-competing industries to become more internationally viable presents Congress with unique challenges.

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APPENDIX. SUMMARY OF U.S. TRADE REMEDY LAWS Statutory Authority Countervailing Duty (CVD). Tariff Act of 1930, Title VII, as amended (19U.S.C. 1671 et seq.)

Purpose To offset any unfair and injurious advantage that foreign manufacturers, producers, or exporters of a class or kind of merchandise might have over U.S. producers as a result of a foreign authority providing a financial contribution, any form of income or price support, or a payment to a funding mechanism to provide the above.

Administering Agencies Department of Commerce (ITA) U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC)

Remedy Countervailing duties are imposed when two conditions are met: (a) Commerce determines that the government of a country or public entity is providing, directly or indirectly, a countervailable subsidy with respect to the manufacture, production, or export of the subject merchandise; and (b) the USITC determines that a U.S. industry is injured, threatened with material injury, or that the establishment of an industry is materially retarded, due to imports of that merchandise.

Antidumping (AD). Tariff Act of 1930, Title VII, as amended (19 U.S.C. 1673 et seq.)

To offset any unfair and injurious advantage that a class or kind of foreign merchandise might have over a similar U.S. product as a result of the imported product being sold in the United States at less than fair market value (less than comparable goods are sold in the home market, or in other export markets).

ITA, ITC

Sections 201-204 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2251 to 2254)

Provides for investigations as to whether an article is being imported into the United States in such increased quantities to be a substantial cause of serious injury, or the threat thereof, to a domestic industry producing an article like or directly competitive with the imported article. Gives the President authority to withdraw or modify concessions and impose duties or other restrictions for a limited period of time on imports of any article which causes or threatens serious injury to the domestic industry producing a like or directly competitive article.

ITC, President

Antidumping duties are imposed when two conditions are met: (a) Commerce determines that the foreign subject merchandise is being, or is likely to be, sold in the United States at less than fair value; and (b) The USITC determines that a U.S. industry is materially injured, threatened with material injury, or that the establishment of an industry is materially retarded, because that merchandise is imported. Action may be taken in the form of an increase in or imposition of a duty, a tariffrate quota, a modification or imposition of a quantitative restriction, one or more appropriate measures of trade administration assistance, or a combination of these actions.

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Statutory Authority Section 406 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2436).

Purpose Provides for remedy against market disruption caused by imports from communist countries.

Administering Agencies ITC, President

Remedy Action may be taken in the form of increased rates of duty or quantitative restrictions that will prevent or remedy the market disruption. Temporary emergency action may also be taken. Action may be taken in the form of increased rates of duty or quantitative restrictions that will prevent or remedy the market disruption. Temporary emergency action may also be taken. Consultations with China are also required to attempt to resolve the market disruption.

Section 421 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2451)

Provides for remedy against market disruption caused by imports from the Peoples’ Republic of China.

ITC, USTR, President

Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2411 et seq.)

Provides for investigations into allegation that (1) foreign countries are denying rights or benefits under trade agreements or violating trade agreements to which the United States is a party; or (2) the act, policy, or practice of a foreign country is unjustifiable and burdens or restricts U.S. commerce. Sec. 301(a) requires mandatory action, if the USTR determines that the above conditions have occurred, unless the WTO has adopted a report, or a dispute resolution proceeding under any other trade agreement has found, that rights of the United States have not been violated, or the USTR finds inter alia that the country has agreed to eliminate the practice, or taking action would cause serious harm to U.S. national security. Sec. 301(b) provides for “discretionary action” if an act, policy, or practice of a foreign country is “unreasonable or discriminatory and burdens or restricts United States commerce.”

USTR

Benefits of trade agreement concessions may be suspended, withdrawn, or prevented; or duties or other import restrictions may be imposed. Binding agreements with the foreign country to eliminate or phase out the action or restriction may also be entered into.

“Special 301.” Section 182 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2242).

The USTR is required, no later than 30 days of release of the National Trade Estimates Report (NTE) to identify foreign countries that (1) deny adequate and effective protection of intellectual property, or (2) deny fair and equitable market access to U.S. persons that rely on intellectual property protection. The USTR is also required to determine which of these are priority foreign countries, that is, those with the most onerous or egregious practices.

USTR

The USTR is required to initiate Section 301 investigations with respect to priority countries or consult with the countries (unless he determines that an investigation would be detrimental to U.S. economic interests) and if possible, secure agreements for the elimination of barriers.

Appendix. (Continued) Statutory Authority Section 337 of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended (19 U.S.C. 1337 et seq.)

Purpose Declares unlawful unfair methods of competition and unfair acts in the importation or sale of articles, the threat or effect of which is to (1) destroy or substantially injure an industry; (2) prevent the establishment of such an industry; or (3) restrain or monopolize trade and commerce in the United States. Also declares unlawful the importation or sale of that infringe a valid, enforceable, and registered U.S. patent, trademark, or mask work (of a semiconductor chip product). Applies to imports that may threaten to impair national security.

Administering Agencies ITC

Remedy The ITC may issue an exclusion order and/or a cease and-desist order.

Commerce, Defense,President

Commerce investigates and holds public hearings. Commerce consults with the Defense Department on methodological and policy questions. Restrictions may be imposed on these imports.

Trade Adjustment Assistance for Firms. Chapter 3 of Title II of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. 2431 et seq.)

Provides technical assistance to eligible firms which (1) apply to Commerce for certification of eligibility and (2) propose adjustment proposal that describes the firm’s recovery strategy and type of technical assistance it is seeking.

Commerce

Eligible firms may apply for technical assistance to implement recovery strategy.

Trade Adjustment Assistance for Workers. Chapter 2 of Title II of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. 2271 et seq.)

Provides trade adjustment assistance for eligible U.S. workers if (1) a group of workers or their certified or recognized union or representative files a petition with the Department of Labor’s Office of Trade Adjustment Assistance for certification of eligibility, and (2) the individual worker is approved for benefits by the State agency administering benefits.

Department of Labor (Labor), State agencies.

Eligible workers may receive trade readjustment allowances, training and reemployment services, and relocation and/or job search allowances.

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National Security Import Restrictions. Sections 232 and 233, Public Law 87794, Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (19 U.S.C. 1862, 1864, as amended).

Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission. Summary of Statutory Provisions Related to Import Relief. USITC Publication 3125, August 1998. United States Code Annotated (USCA) Title 19, Customs Duties. U.S. Congress, House Committee on Ways and Means. Overview and Compilation of U.S. Trade Statutes (2001), WCMP 107-4.

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REFERENCES [1]

[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8]

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[9]

[10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]

[17] [18] [19] [20]

19 U.S.C. 1675c, P.L. 106-387, Title X. Also known as the Byrd Amendment, the act requires that duties collected pursuant to antidumping or countervailing duty orders be distributed annually to “affected domestic producers” for certain qualifying expenditures. See CRS Report RL33045, The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset (“Byrd Amendment”), by Jeanne J. Grimmett and Vivian C. Jones. The International Trade Administration (ITA) of the Department of Commerce conducts AD and CVD investigations. “Material injury” is defined in 19 U.S.C. 1677(1) as “harm which is not inconsequential, immaterial, or unimportant.” U.S. International Trade Commission (U.S. ITC). Summary of Statutory Provisions Related to Import Relief. Publication 3125, August 1998, p. 2. [http://www.usitc.gov/]. 19 U.S.C. 1671 et. seq. U.S. ITC Publication 3125, p. 1. CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671a(a); AD: 19 U.S.C. 1673a(a). CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671a(b)(1); AD: 19 U.S.C. 1673a(b)(1). Both citations refer to a definition of “interested party” found in subparagraphs (C),(D),(E),(F), or (G) of 19 U.S.C. 1677(9). As a general rule, the ITA determines that a petition has been filed on behalf of an industry if (1) the domestic producers or workers supporting the petition account for at least 25 percent of the production of the domestic like product, or (2) the domestic producers or workers who support the petition account for more than 50 percent of the domestic like product produced by that portion of the industry expressing support for or opposition to the petition (CVD:19 U.S.C. 1671a (c)(4)(A); AD: 19 U.S.C. 1673a(c)(4)(A)). The statute allows for an extension of the 20-day time period if Commerce determines that the petition does not establish sufficient industry support and must poll or survey the industry in order to determine adequate support for the petition. CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671a(c)(3); AD 19 U.S.C.1673a(c)(3). The non-actionable subsidies category was applied provisionally for five years ending December 31, 1999 and was not extended. Finger, J.M.; Hall, H. Keith; Nelson, Douglas R. “The Political Economy of Administered Protection,” American Economic Review, 72:3 (June 1982), p. 452. Ibid. Ibid. Mastel, Greg. Antidumping Laws and the U.S. Economy, New York: Economic Strategy Institute, 1998, p. 103. CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671b(b)(2); AD: 19 U.S.C.1673b(b)(2). If ITA has extended its deadline, the ITC must make its preliminary determination within 25 days after the ITA informs the ITC of the initiation of the investigation. 19 U.S.C. 1671b(b) and (c). 19 U.S.C. 1673b(b) and (c). CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671b(d); AD 19 U.S.C. 1673b(d). CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671d; AD: 19 U.S.C. 1673d.

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Vivian C. Jones

[21] CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671e; AD: 19 U.S.C. 1673e. [22] U.S. International Trade Commission, Publication 3125, p.5. [23] CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671c(a)(1); AD: 19 U.S.C. 1671(a)(1). According to 19 U.S.C. 1671c(a)(3) and 19 U.S.C.1673c(a)(3), the ITC may not terminate an investigation until a preliminary determination is made by the ITA. [24] CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671c ; AD: 19 U.S.C. 1673c. [25] “Extraordinary circumstances” are described in 19 U.S.C. 1671c(c)(4)(A) and 19 U.S.C. 1673c(2)(A) as circumstances in which “(i) the suspension of an investigation will be more beneficial to the domestic industry than continuation of the investigation, and (ii) the investigation is complex.” [26] CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671c(b)(c); AD: 19 U.S.C. 1673c(b)(c). [27] CVD: 19 U.S.C. 1671c(d); AD: 19 U.S.C. 1673c(d). [28] World Trade Organization. Doha Ministerial Declaration 2001 (WT/MIN/(01)/DEC/1), November 20, 2001, Article 28. [29] 19 U.S.C. 1675 and 19 C.F.R. 351.213. [30] 19 U.S.C. 1675(b). [31] 19 U.S.C. 1673d(c)(B). In investigations of non-market economy countries, an individual rate is established only if the exporter or producer is able to provide sufficient evidence that government controls over the decision-making process on export-related investment, pricing, and output do not exist. [32] 19 U.S.C. 1675(a)(2)(B). [33] “Louisiana Delegation Queries Customs Regarding Missing Duties on Crawfish.”International Trade Reporter, April 14, 2005. [34] 19 U.S.C. 1675(c). [35] 19 C.F.R. 351.218. [36] U.S. International Trade Commission. Import Industry Investigations Case Statistics (FY 1980-2003).November 2004 (Latest available official data). There were 61 cases carried over from FY1979 (8 AD, 53 CVD) that had no preliminary determinations in FY1980. [37] 15 U.S.C. 72. [38] U.S. Department of Homeland Security. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. CDSOA FY2004 Annual Report. [http://www.customs.gov/xp/cgov/import/add_cvd/]. [39] Canada Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. “Byrd Amendment: Canada to Retaliate Against United States,” United States,” News Release No. 56, March 31, 2005. [40] Commission on the European Communities. Proposal for a Council Regulation Establishing Additional Customs Duties on Imports of Certain Products Originating in the United States of America. Brussels, March 31, 2005. [41] World Trade Organization. Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes, Article 22:1. [42] CBO. “Estimated Budgetary Impact of House Reconciliation Recommendations (H.R.4241) [http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/reconciliation.cfm]. [43] See CRS Report RL33045, The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset (“Byrd Amendment”), by Jeanne J. Grimmett and Vivian C. Jones; and CRS Report RL33132, Budget Reconciliation Legislation in 2005-2006 Under FY2006 Budget Resolution, by Robert Keith.

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[44] The ITA last made this determination in two 1983 investigations of steel wire rod from Czechoslovakia (49 F.R. 19370) and Poland (49 F.R. 19374). The determination was challenged by the steel industry in the U.S. Court of International Trade, which reversed the ITA’s decision and held that CVD law covers non-market economies (Continental Steel Corp. v. United States, 9 C.I.T., 614 F. Supp. 548, 550; C.I.T. 1985). This decision was subsequently overturned by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (Georgetown Steel Corporation, et al. v. the United States, 801 F.2d 1308; Fed. Cir. 1986). [45] ITA is responsible for NME classification pursuant to 19 U.S.C. 1677(18)(B). The applicability of NME classification with regard to China was determined in the Preliminary Determination of Sales at Less than Fair Value, Greige Polyester Cotton Print Cloth from China (48 F.R. 9897). Any determination that a foreign country is a non-market economy country remains in effect until revoked by the ITA (19 U.S.C.1677(18)(C)(i)). Trade figures are from International Trade Commission Trade Data Web [http://dataweb.usitc.gov]. Other NME countries include Vietnam and the Ukraine. [46] CBO. “Estimated Budgetary Impact of House Reconciliation Recommendations (H.R.4241) [http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/reconciliation.cfm]. [47] Letter to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist signed by Senators Mike DeWine, Larry E.Craig, and 24 others, November 4, 2005. [48] Letter to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist signed by Senators Max Baucus, Robert E.Byrd, Kent Conrad, and Daniel K. Inouye, November 4, 2005. [49] CRS Report RL33045, The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset (“Byrd Amendment”), by Jeanne J. Grimmett and Vivian C. Jones. [50] Lawrence, Robert Z. and Litan, Robert E. Saving Free Trade: A Pragmatic Approach, Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1986, p. 97. [51] 19 U.S.C. 2251-2254. [52] 19 U.S.C. 2436. [53] 19 U.S.C. 2451, as added by section 103 of P.L. 106-286, Division A, Normal Trade Relations for the People’s Republic of China. [54] 19 U.S.C. 3352. [55] 19 U.S.C. 2252(a)(1). [56] 19 U.S.C. 2252(b)(1)(A). [57] General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, Article XIX.1(a) and (b). [58] “Substantial cause” is defined in 19 U.S.C. 2252(b)(1)(B) as “a cause which is important and not less than any other cause.” Criteria for assessing “serious injury” are described in19 U.S.C. 2252(c)(1)(A). [59] 19 U.S.C. 2252(c). [60] 19 U.S.C. 2252(f)(1). [61] 19 U.S.C.2252(d)(1)(E) and (F). [62] 19 U.S.C. 2252(d). [63] 19 U.S.C. 2252(d)(1)(B) and (C). [64] 19 U.S.C. 2252(d)(1)(A). [65] 19 U.S.C. 2253. [66] 19 U.S.C. 2253(e)(1)(A) and (B). [67] 19 U.S.C. 2253(c).

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60 [68] [69] [70] [71] [72]

[73]

[74] [75] [76] [77] [78]

[79]

19 U.S.C. 2254(a)(1). 19 U.S.C. 2254(a)(2) and (3). 19 U.S.C. 2254(b). 19 U.S.C. 2254(c). See CRS Report RL31396, Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974: Summary of Provisions and History of Investigations, by George Mangan for a listing of safeguard investigations and outcomes through 2002. All public documents regarding the ITC steel investigation are available on the ITC website,[http://www.usitc.gov/trade_remedy/731_ad_701_cvd/investigations/2003/ 204_steel/finalphase.htm]. To Facilitate Positive Adjustment to Competition from Certain Steel Products, Proclamation 7529, March 5, 2002 (67 F.R. 10593). Proclamation 7741, 68 F.R. 68481. 19 U.S.C. 2451. P.L.93-618, Section 421, as added by section 103(a)(3) of P.L. 106-286, 19 U.S.C. 2451. To Extend Nondiscriminatory Treatment (Normal Trade Relations Treatment) to the Products of the People’s Republic of China, Proclamation 7616 of December 27, 2001, 67 F.R. 479. An absolute increase in imports is indicated if imports of the subject merchandise surged in one year and were very low or zero previous years. A relative increase means that the ratio of imports relative to domestic production has rapidly increased from one year to the next. 19 U.S.C. 2253(a)(1)(A). Office of Representative Phil English, “English Calls for Real Reform of U.S. Trade Laws.” Summary of Trade Law Reform Act of 2006, p. 6.

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[80] [81]

Vivian C. Jones

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Chapter 5

WTO DOHA ROUND: THE AGRICULTURAL NEGOTIATIONS

*

Charles E. Hanrahan and Randy Schnepf ABSTRACT

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On July 24, 2006, the WTO’s Director General announced the indefinite suspension of further negotiations in the Doha Development Agenda or Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The principal cause of the suspension was that a core group of WTO member countries — the United States, the European Union (EU), Brazil, India, Australia, and Japan — known as the G-6 had reached an impasse over specific methods to achieve the broad aims of the round for agricultural trade: substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic subsidies, elimination of export subsidies, and substantially increased market access for agricultural products. The WTO is unique among the various fora of international trade negotiations in that it brings together its entire 149-country membership to negotiate a common set of rules to govern international trade in agricultural products, industrial goods, and services. Agreement across such a large assemblage of participating nations and range of issues contributes significantly to consistency and harmonization of trade rules across countries. Regarding agriculture, because policy reform is addressed across three broadly inclusive fronts — export competition, domestic support, and market access — WTO negotiations provide a framework for give and take to help foster mutual agreement. As a result, the Doha Round represents an unusual opportunity for addressing most policy-induced distortions in international agricultural markets. Doha Round negotiators were operating under a deadline effectively imposed by the expiration of U.S. Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which permits the President to negotiate trade deals and present them to Congress for expedited consideration. To meet congressional notification requirements under TPA, an agreement would have to have been completed by the end of 2006. That now appears unlikely. TPA expires on June 30, 2007, and most trade experts and officials think that the authority would not be renewed. As a result of the suspension of the negotiations, a major source of pressure for U.S. farm policy change will have dissipated. The current farm bill expires in 2007, and many *

This is an edited, reformatted and augmented version of Congressional Research Service Report RL33144 dated September 12, 2006.

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Charles E. Hanrahan and Randy Schnepf were looking to a Doha Round agreement to require changes in U.S. farm subsidies to make them more compatible with world trade rules. The option of extending the current farm law appears strengthened by the indefinite suspension of the Doha talks. The United States must still meet obligations under existing WTO agricultural agreements, which limit trade-distorting spending to $19.1 billion annually. Some trade analysts think that, now that the Round has been suspended, there could be an increase in litigation by WTO member countries that allege they are harmed by U.S. farm subsidies. This report assesses the current status of agricultural negotiations in the Doha Round; traces the developments leading up to the December 2005 Hong Kong Ministerial; examines the major agricultural negotiating proposals; discusses the potential effects of a successful Doha Round agreement on global trade, income, U.S. farm policy, and U.S. agriculture; and provides background on the WTO, the Doha Round, the key negotiating groups, and a chronology of key events relevant to the agricultural negotiations. The report will be updated.

INTRODUCTION

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This report discusses the indefinitely suspended World Trade Organization (WTO) multilateral trade negotiations — the so-called Doha Round or the Doha Development Agenda (DDA). The focus initially is on the implications for future trade negotiations and the next U.S. farm bill of the suspension of negotiations in July 2006. The report discusses the agreements reached at the December 13-18, 2005, Hong Kong Ministerial meeting and reviews the agricultural negotiating developments that occurred in the second half of 2005 leading up to the Ministerial. Briefly discussed also are the role of the U.S. Congress; the major negotiating issues and proposals at play in the Doha Round; the historical development of agricultural trade negotiations since the Uruguay Round; and the potential economic benefits estimated to ensue from a successful trade agreement according to several recent studies.

CURRENT STATUS: THE INDEFINITE SUSPENSION OF DOHA ROUND NEGOTIATIONS On July 24, 2006, the Director General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy, announced the indefinite suspension of further negotiations in the Doha Development Agenda or Doha Round. The principal cause of the suspension was that a core group of WTO member countries — the United States, the European Union (EU), Brazil, India, Australia, and Japan — known as the G-6 had reached an impasse over specific methods to achieve the broad aims of the round for agricultural trade: substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic subsidies, elimination of export subsidies, and substantially increased market access for agricultural products. The United States maintained that it had made an ambitious offer of reductions in trade supporting domestic support (discussed below) that had not been matched by agricultural tariff reductions by the EU or by market opening for agricultural and industrial products by Brazil and India, both large developing countries. The EU and Brazil argued that the U.S. offer on domestic support did not go far enough in reducing trade-distorting support and would in fact leave the United States in a position to spend more on such subsidies than under the current WTO (Uruguay Round) Agreement on Agriculture.

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63

Doha Round negotiators were operating under a deadline effectively imposed by the expiration of U.S. Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which permits the President to negotiate trade deals and present them to Congress for an up or down vote without amendment. To meet congressional notification requirements under TPA legislation, an agreement would have to have been completed by the end of 2006. TPA expires on June 30, 2007, and most trade experts and officials think that the authority would not be renewed. Some, however, think that Congress might extend TPA temporarily if a Doha Round agreement seemed imminent, as was the case in 1994 for the Uruguay Round Multilateral Trade Agreements. A number of agreements had already been reached in the Doha Round agricultural negotiations, but they are contingent on a comprehensive agreement in the single undertaking (“nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”) that is the round and will now be put on hold. Those include an agreement by the EU to eliminate its agricultural export subsidies by the end of 2013 and an agreement by developed countries to extend duty and quota free access to 97% of the exports of the least developed countries. The agreement at Hong Kong to provide early and ambitious subsidy reduction for cotton also is dependent on there being a comprehensive Doha round agreement. The WTO will continue to provide aid for trade funds to help developing countries participate more fully in the world trade system. Aid for trade discussions were conducted outside the framework of Doha Round negotiations. As a result of the suspension of the negotiations, a major source of pressure for U.S. farm policy change will have dissipated. The current farm bill (P.L.107-171) expires in 2007, and many were looking to a Doha Round agreement on curbing trade-distorting domestic support to require changes in U.S. farm subsidies to make them more compatible with world trade rules. The option of extending the current farm law appears strengthened by the indefinite suspension of the Doha talks. Legislation (H.R. 4332, H.R. 4775, and S. 2696) already had been introduced in the 109th Congress to extend the 2002 farm bill by one year. The United States must still meet obligations under existing WTO agricultural agreements, which limit its trade-distorting spending to $19.1 billion annually. Some trade analysts think that there could be an increase in litigation by WTO member countries that allege they are harmed by U.S. farm subsidies [1]. The expiration of the “peace clause” (Article 13 of the 1994 Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture) means that WTO member countries are no longer bound by an agreement to refrain from challenging each other’s agricultural subsidy programs so long as commitments under the agreement are being met. Brazil’s successful challenges of U.S. cotton subsidies and EU sugar subsidies in WTO dispute settlement are cited as illustrations of the possible kinds of legal actions that WTO members might take [2]. Another consequence of the suspension of Doha Round negotiations is that the United States may pursue more aggressively bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs). Currently, the United States is negotiating nine FTAs. Agreements with larger economies will be particularly attractive to U.S. agricultural interests. The U.S. Trade Representative has indicated that in the near term priority will be given to negotiating FTAs with such larger U.S. trading partners as Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand [3]. TPA procedures also will apply to legislation to implement bilateral FTAs, lending some urgency to the completion of ongoing negotiations in time to meet TPA deadlines for congressional notification. Congress also could choose to extend TPA for bilateral trade agreements.

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Restarting negotiations before the expiration of TPA seems unlikely, but some WTO member countries have been holding discussions with trading partners to explore the possibility of completing the Doha Round. The U.S. Trade Representative has held bilateral discussions with Australia, Brazil, China, the EU, India, and Japan where resuming the Round has been a topic for discussion. No agreements, however, that would break the negotiating impasse on agriculture have been announced. Members of the G-20 developing country negotiating group, led by Brazil and India, have called for resumption of the negotiations, but make no specific proposals for breaking the current deadlock [4]. The Cairns Group [5] of agricultural exporting countries (both developed and developing) are expected to call for resumption of the Round at their September 20-22, 2006, meeting in Australia.

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THE HONG KONG MINISTERIAL DECLARATION On December 18, 2005, in Hong Kong, WTO member countries reached agreement on a broad outline of negotiating objectives for liberalizing global trade in agriculture, manufactures, and services in the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations [6]. However, only limited progress was made in reaching agreement on precise numerical formulas or targets (termed “modalities”) for liberalizing agricultural trade, the original aim of the Hong Kong (HK) Ministerial. The Hong Kong agreement set new deadlines for completing the Round in 2006 (see Appendix Table 1). None of these deadlines were met prior to the July 2006 announcement that the negotiations had been suspended indefinitely. According to the HK agreement, modalities for cutting tariffs on agricultural products, eliminating export subsidies, and cutting trade-distorting domestic support would be agreed to by April 30, 2006. Based on these modalities, member countries would then submit comprehensive draft schedules by July 31, 2006. The Doha Round would be concluded in 2006. Completing negotiations by yearend would allow enough time to submit an agreement to Congress before the expiration of the President’s TPA authority in mid-2007.

Incremental Progress on Agriculture in the Hong Kong Declaration The Hong Kong (HK) declaration (adopted on December 18, 2005) deals with all three pillars of the agricultural negotiations — export competition, domestic support, and market access — and also with the controversial issue of the nature and pace of reform of tradedistorting cotton subsidies in the United States and other developed countries. Most progress was made in negotiations on the export competition pillar with an agreement on a specific end date for the elimination of export subsidies, but difficult negotiations remained on establishing new disciplines for other forms of export competition. Detailed negotiations were not carried out for domestic support and market access. As throughout the Doha agricultural negotiations, market access, and especially how to deal with access for import-sensitive products, remains the thorniest issue, not least because of EU intransigence on this pillar. Some agreement was reached on how to deal with export subsidies and market access for cotton, but this issue still pits the United States, which argues for handling the reduction of trade-distorting support for cotton within the domestic support

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pillar, against the cotton-producing African countries who insist on an early harvest of reductions in cotton support. Export Competition. The most concrete outcome of the Hong Kong Ministerial was an agreement to eliminate agricultural export subsidies by the end of 2013. The European Union (EU), the largest user of export subsidies, had opposed setting an end date, maintaining that WTO members needed to determine first how other forms of subsidized export competition — export credit programs, insurance, export activities of State Trading Enterprises (STEs), and food aid — would be disciplined. The United States and Brazil, among others, had been demanding an end to such export subsides by 2010 to be followed by negotiations on other forms of export completion. As a compromise, the HK declaration calls for the parallel elimination of all forms of export subsidies and disciplines on measures with equivalent effect by the end of 2013. The end date will be confirmed, however, only after the completion of modalities for the elimination of all forms of export subsidies. With respect to other forms of export competition, the HK declaration included the following. •

•

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•

Export credit programs should be “self-financing, reflecting market consistency, and of a sufficiently short duration so as not to effectively circumvent real commerciallyoriented discipline;” On exporting STEs, disciplines will be such that their “monopoly powers cannot be exercised in any way that would circumvent the direct disciplines on STEs on export subsidies, government financing, and the underwriting of losses.” On food aid, a “safe box” will be established for “bona fide” food aid “to ensure there will be no impediment to dealing with emergency situations.” However, disciplines will be established on in-kind food aid, monetization, and re-exports to prevent loopholes for continuing export subsidization leading to elimination or displacement of commercial sales by food aid.

Domestic Support. On trade-distorting domestic support, WTO members agreed to three bands for reductions, with the percentages for reducing support in each band to be decided during the modalities negotiations. The EU would be in the highest band and be subject to the largest reduction commitments, while Japan and the United States would be in the middle band. (The U.S. proposal would have subjected Japan to a higher percentage cut of its domestic support.) All other WTO members, including developing countries, would be in the bottom band. The HK declaration states further that “the overall reduction in trade-distorting domestic support will still need to be made even if the sum of the reductions in the three categories of trade-distorting support — amber box, blue box, and de minimis — would otherwise be less than the overall reduction requirement [7]. (This appears intended at ensuring that the United States does not engage in box shifting to maintain its current spending levels). Market Access. The HK declaration calls for four bands for structuring tariff cuts, with the relevant band thresholds and within-band reduction percentages to be worked out during modalities negotiations. The treatment of sensitive products (those to be exempted from formula tariff reductions) was also left to modalities negotiations. A preliminary draft of the declaration would have required WTO member countries to ensure that, for sensitive products, the greater the deviation from agreed tariff reduction formulas, the greater would be

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the increase in tariff rate quotas. The extent to which tariff rate quotas for sensitive products are expanded remains a key determinant of the market access gains that would result from the Round. The HK declaration also ensured that developing countries would have two privileges not otherwise available to developed countries: (1) the right to self-designate a number of tariff lines to be treated as special products (with lower cuts in tariffs) based on certain criteria — food security, livelihood security, and rural development; and (2) the ability to impose a special safeguard mechanism (SSG) on imports based on both import quantity and price triggers [8]. Cotton. On cotton, the HK declaration reaffirms the commitment (made in the July 2004 framework agreement discussed below) to ensure an explicit decision on cotton “within the agriculture negotiations and through the Sub-Committee on Cotton expeditiously and specifically.” The HK declaration calls for developed countries to eliminate all forms of export subsidies on cotton in 2006. This coincides with the United States’ elimination of its Step 2 program for cotton by August 1, 2006, as contained in the pending 2006 budget reconciliation act (S. 1932, Deficit Reduction Act of 2005). Step 2, which compensates U.S. millers and exporters for using high-priced American cotton, was declared in violation of WTO rules in the Brazil-U.S. cotton case [9]. On cotton market access, the HK declaration calls on developed countries to give duty and quota free access to cotton exports from least-developed countries (LDCs) from the beginning of the implementation of a Doha Round agreement. Not agreed to, but certain to be revisited during the modalities negotiations in 2006, was a provision that “trade-distorting domestic subsidies for cotton should be reduced more ambitiously than under whatever general formula is agreed and that it should be implemented over a shorter period of time” than for other commodities. Agriculture, NAMA, and LDCs. Two other provisions in the HK declaration touch on agriculture. One is a provision in the declaration calling for balance between agricultural and non-agricultural market access (NAMA) modalities. The HK declaration recognizes that it is important to advance the development objectives of the Round through enhanced market access for developing countries in both agriculture and NAMA. As a result, the HK declaration calls for a “complementary high level of ambition” in market access for both these components of the round. Second, in a departure from special and differential treatment, the HK declaration calls for all developed countries, and developing countries in a position to do so, to provide duty-free and quota-free market access for products originating from LDCs, with some exceptions, by 2008 or no later than the beginning of the implementation period.

AGRICULTURAL NEGOTIATING DEVELOPMENTS PRECEDING THE HONG KONG MINISTERIAL Overview On October 10, 2005, the United States offered a detailed proposal with specific modalities (i.e., schedules, formulas, and other criteria for implementing tariff and subsidy reduction rates and other aspects of the reform) for the adoption of new disciplines on the

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three major agricultural reform pillars — export competition, domestic support, and market access — in the ongoing round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations. The U.S. proposal appeared to break a negotiations log-jam as it was followed closely in mid-October, by separate proposals for agricultural modalities from three other major negotiating participants — the EU, the G-20 developing countries, and the G-10, a group of mainly developed countries that are net importers of agricultural products. These negotiating proposals revealed that wide differences exist, especially between the United States and the EU, in the modalities proposed for market access, the most difficult issue encountered by negotiators. (The proposals are examined below. See the Appendix Tables 1-3 at the end of this report for a schedule of key events, a description of the various negotiating groups, and a brief list of key WTO terms). As part of its oversight and consultation with the Administration on the Doha Round agriculture negotiations, Chairmen of both House and Senate Agriculture Committees have expressed their views on the kind of WTO agricultural agreement that would garner their support [10]. According to the chairmen, the four principles that should guide any WTO agreement are:

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• • • •

Substantial improvement in real market access. Greater harmonization in trade-distorting domestic support. Elimination of export subsidies; and Greater certainty and predictability regarding WTO litigation.

Negotiations on the agricultural modalities in U.S. and other country proposals continued in preparation for the Hong Kong WTO Ministerial during November and December, but as the meeting approached, the negotiations appeared to have reached another impasse. The United States, the G-20, and the CAIRNS group called for the EU to improve and resubmit its offer on market access because it was not as extensive as its current reform proposals for domestic support and export competition, and thus provided insufficient bargaining room. The EU (with at least partial backing from the G-10 and India) claimed that it was unable to improve its market access offer without some formal proposals from other countries on reform in the non-agricultural trade sectors — primarily services and industrial goods. With the prospect of little movement at Hong Kong under prevailing circumstances (e.g., limited time to bridge U.S.-EU-developing country differences and internal EU-country disagreements over the nature of the EU’s offer), news reports surfaced about scaled-back ambitions for the Hong Kong Ministerial [11]. In the draft ministerial declaration for the Hong Kong meeting, the WTO Director General Pascal Lamy suggested that, rather than agreeing on modalities, trade ministers set deadlines for establishing modalities and agreeing to schedules of concessions, both before the end of 2006 [12].

Comparison of Major Agricultural Negotiating Proposals The four major DDA negotiating proposals for agricultural modalities are from the United States, EU, G-20, and the G-10. Each proposal (described below) varies in terms of its degree of specificity for each of the three negotiating pillars. Tables 1 and 2 summarize

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domestic policy reforms and market access reforms, respectively, under each of the negotiating proposals. Export competition negotiations were facilitated by the EU’s July 2005 pledge to end export subsidies (conditioned on parallel treatment of other forms of export subsidies). Domestic support disciplines hinge primarily on commitments by three countries: the United States, the EU, and Japan. In contrast, market access has been the most difficult issue, especially for the EU and the G-10, but also for the G-20. The EU’s latest offer on market access (October 27, 2005) — average tariff cuts of 35%-60% coupled with extensive protection for “sensitive products” — falls short of the “level of ambition” of the G-20 proposal which proposes tariff cuts of 45%-75% and limited protection for “sensitive products.” The U.S. Proposal. The U.S. modalities proposal of October 10, 2005, is credited with unblocking stalled modalities negotiations. It addressed domestic support and market access with specifics for the first time, and put the EU on the defensive especially on market access. It proposes a three-stage reform: five years of substantial reductions in trade-distorting support and tariffs, followed by a five-year pause; then five more years to phase-in total elimination of all remaining trade-distorting domestic measures and import tariffs.

Export Competition • •

Eliminate all agricultural export subsidies. Establish disciplines for export credit guarantees, STEs, and food aid.

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Domestic Support • • • • • • •

Cut the U.S. amber box bound by 60% based on 1999-2001 period. Reduce the EU and Japanese amber box bounds by 83%. Reduce overall level of trade-distorting support by 75% for EU, and by 53% for the United States and Japan. Cap blue box spending at 2.5% of value of production. Cut de minimis exemptions to 2.5% of value of production (for both total and for specific products). Maintain green box criteria without caps. Establish a new peace clause to protect domestic supports against WTO litigation.

Market Access • • • • •

Cut highest tariffs by 90%; cut other tariffs in a range of 55%-90%. Cap the maximum agricultural tariff at 75%. Limit sensitive products to 1% of tariff lines. Expand TRQs: i.e., larger quotas with lower tariffs. SDT for developing countries (TBD), but cap maximum developing country agricultural tariff at 100%.

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Conditions. U.S. domestic support commitments are conditioned on “ambitious” market access proposals especially from the EU and the G-20. The EU Proposal. Under pressure from France and 12 other EU countries (but not a qualified majority) not to improve its offers, the EU made a new market access proposal on October 27 and provided additional detail on its proposal for domestic support, export competition, and Geographical Indications (GIs are place names associated with particular products). The EU’s “level of ambition” in market access does not reach that of the G-20 or the United States. A major criticism of the EU’s agricultural proposal is that its market access offer does not provide an inducement for developing countries like Brazil, Thailand, or other G-20 members to make concessions in non-agricultural market access or services. The United States and G-20 countries continue to pressure the EU to offer further concessions on agricultural market access.

Export Competition • • •

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•

Eliminate all agricultural export subsidies, contingent on “parallel” disciplines for export credits, food aid, and STEs by 2012. Establish a “short-term self-financing principle” for credits: programs must demonstrate that they charge adequate premiums to ensure self-financing. STEs: eliminate price-pooling, anti-trust immunity, direct and indirect preferential financing, and preferential transport services; and eliminate single-desk selling. Food Aid: phase out food aid that leads to commercial displacement but maintain commitments to adequate food aid levels; move gradually to untied and in-cash food aid; permit in-kind food aid only in exceptional, emergency situations under agreed criteria.

Domestic Support • • • • • •

Reduce the EU’s amber box ceiling by 70% (in line with already established EU spending limits); reduce the U.S. amber box ceiling by 60%. Base amber box product-specific caps on the Uruguay Round implementation period of 1986-88. Reduce the de minimis exemptions ceiling by 80% of the Framework’s proposed 5% cap (i.e., establish a cap of 1% of the value of total production). Blue box: freeze the existing price difference between linked price support prices and limit the price gap to a percentage of the base price difference. Reduce overall trade-distorting support in three bands: 70% (EU), 60% (U.S.), and 50% (rest-of-world). Maintain the green box without limits.

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Table 1. Comparison of Proposals for Domestic Policy Reform: U.S., G-20, EU, and G-10

Source: Assembled by CRS from various news releases of the USTR and World Trade Online. n.s. = not specified a. The U.S. proposes different value ranges for amber box and overall ceilings; however, the within-tier country composition remains unchanged under the different ranges: 1st tier: EU and Japan; 2nd tier: U.S.; 3rd tier: rest-of-world. b. The G-20 is also calling for product-specific caps both in the overall AMS and the Blue Box. c. The EU also proposes commodity-specific amber box spending limits.

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Table 2. Doha Round Negotiations Market Access Proposals: G-10, G-20, EU, and U.S.

Source: Assembled by CRS from USTR, EC, and World Trade Online news releases. Data are as of October 28, 2005. a. The U.S. has proposed applying the set of tiered tariff cuts described below during the 1st five-year period of implementation; to be followed by a period of stability during the next (2 nd) five years; then totally eliminating tariffs during the 3 rd five-year period. This same reduction-stabilityelimination sequence would be applied to trade-distorting domestic support as well. b. The EU proposes additional FLEXIBILITY be given for tariff cuts within the lowest tier (0-30%) such that the tier’s overall average cut of 35% (25% for developing countries) is still respected, but that within tier cuts may vary between 20% to 45% (10% to 40%). c. The EU has expressed a willingness to consider 70% cuts for the top tier of tariffs. d. The EU estimates the average tariff cut, according to its proposed tier/tariff reduction formula, would be 46% across all tariff lines.

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However, USTR suggests that a more accurate estimate would be 39%. Since the average tariff cut across all tariff lines must also consider the level of protection provided by TRQs for sensitive products, it would appear that the EU’s estimated average tariff cut of 46% grossly overstates the true average as it apparently ignores the large degree of protection provided by allowing 8% of tariff lines to hide behind TRQs. (See next footnote.) e. The EU has approximately 2,200 8-digit tariff lines. An 8% limit on sensitive products would imply a maximum of about 176 sensitive products to be subject to TRQs with expanded market access. The EU currently has 300 to 400 tariff lines covered by TRQs under the Uruguay Round Agreement. The EU suggests that such a large number of sensitive products is necessary to achieve both protection for its agricultural sector while allowing for substantial tariff cuts across unprotected tariff line items. Furthermore, the EU states that its sensitive products, although numerous, would be structured to allow for “substantial increases in market access that would nonetheless still be lower than that granted by the result of the full tariff cut.” f. The G-20 proposes that no new tariff-rate quotas (apart from existing TRQs agreed to under the Uruguay Round’s Agreement on Agriculture) be created for products designated as sensitive, and it calls for a maximum deviation from the tariff reduction formula of 30%. It said existing TRQs on developed country sensitive products should at least be expanded so that a minimum access level is increased to a level equivalent to 6% of annual domestic consumption. g. The EU proposal calls for the possibility of new TRQs. In addition it recommends a TRQ formula linking the quota increase to the level of tariff reduction, proposing that the quota increase is: [(Normal tariff cut) - (applied cut)] / [(import price) + (ad valorem for that tariff line)] * (0.8). At the same stage there should be a minimum tariff reduction in each of the bands of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%, respectively. h. EU proposes that GIs receive the same protection as a trade mark in line with protection currently available for wine and spirits under Article 23 of TRIPS agreement. For products with existing trade mark protection that would otherwise be invalidated by GI protection elsewhere, Article 24 of TRIPS would be adjusted such that existing trade marks would not be affected. The EU considers this a major concession. Definitions: EBA = Everything But Arms (i.e., all products except weaponry and munitions). TBD = To Be Determined. TRQ = Tariff Rate Quota. This involves a quota level (TBD) within which all imports enter duty-free or subject to a minimal tariff duty (TBD). All over-quota imports are subject to a higher (often prohibitive) duty (TBD). Greater market access (or greater TRQ) is achieved by raising the quota level and reducing the over-quota tariff rate.

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Table 3. U.S. Domestic Spending Limits and Outlays: Current Status, Framework Agreement, and U.S. Reform Proposal

Source: Assembled by CRS from news releases of various sources. For a detailed description of U.S. domestic spending by category for both commitments and actual outlay notifications, see CRS Report RL30612, Agriculture in the WTO: Member Spending on Domestic Support, by Randy Schnepf. a. Average for 1995-2001 period for which official WTO notification data is available. b. Estimate for 2005 period based on CRS calculations from various USDA projections. c. Reflects only the 20% initial cut. d. The three five-year period phase out would apply to all trade-distorting domestic support and tariffs (including safeguard mechanisms). Definitions: AMS— Aggregate Measure of (trade-distorting domestic) Support as defined in the Agreement on Agriculture. TBD — To Be Determined. TVP — Total Value of agricultural Production for all commodities. SCVP — Total Value of agricultural Production for a Specific Commodity.

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Market Access • •

• •

Reduce the highest tariffs by 60%; cut other tariffs in a range of 35%-60%. Reduce the number of sensitive products to 8% of tariff lines (given the EU’s approximately 2,200 tariff lines this would result in about 176 protected tariff lines for the EU). Apply both tariff cuts and expanded TRQs to sensitive products. Cap the maximum agricultural tariff for developed countries at 100% (but with no cap for sensitive products).

Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSG) •

Keep the SSG available for both developed and developing countries. Specifically, the EU wants the SSG to be available for beef, poultry, butter, fruits and vegetables, and sugar.

Geographical Indications (GIs) • •

•

Extend protection available to wines and spirits under Article 23 of TRIPS to all products, while leaving existing trademarks unaffected. Establish a multilateral system of notification and registration of GIs, open to all products, with legal effect in all Member countries not having lodged a reservation to the registration. Use of well-known GIs on a short list should be prohibited, again subject to existing trademark rights.

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Special and Differential Treatment (SDT) for developing countries • •

Establish higher tariff bands, lower tariff cuts, and a maximum tariff of 150% for developing countries. No tariff cuts for the 32 WTO-member LDCs.

Conditions • • • •

NAMA: agreement before Hong Kong on a progressive formula that cuts into applied tariffs for manufactured products. Services: agreement at Hong Kong to establish mandatory country targets for services trade liberalization. Rules: Negotiate before the Hong Kong Ministerial meeting a list of issues to be resolved including antidumping. Development: prepare for Hong Kong a Trade Related Assistance package for developing countries and extend tariff and quota free access to all LDCs no later than the conclusion of the DDA.

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The G-20 Proposal. The G-20 proposal on market access reflects differences between Brazil, an agricultural exporter, and India, an agricultural importer.

Export Competition • •

Eliminate all forms of export subsidies over five-year period. New food aid disciplines should not compromise emergency humanitarian assistance.

Domestic Support • • • •

Cut the bound for overall trade-distorting domestic support in three bands: >$60 billion, 80%; $10-$60 billion, 75%; and $0-$10 billion, 70%. Cut the amber box ceiling in three bands: >$25 billion, 80%; $15-$25 billion, 70%; and $0-$15 billion, $60%. Reduce de minimis exemption allowances so as to meet the cut in the overall bound. Address the cotton issues no later than the Hong Kong Ministerial meeting.

Market Access • • •

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• • •

Cut developed country tariffs by 45%-75%; cut developing country tariffs by 25%40%. Cap the developed country maximum agricultural tariff at 100%, developing country maximum tariff at 150%. Limit the number of sensitive products; compensate for designation as sensitive with a combination of tariff cuts and expanded TRQs. Maintain Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSG) for developing countries; eliminate SSG for developed countries. Address issue of preference erosion for developing countries with expanded access for LDCs and trade capacity building. Special and Differential Treatment (SDT): exempt LDCs from reduction commitments.

The G-10 Proposal. The G-10 is a group of mainly developed, net-agricultural importing countries led by Japan, Norway, and Switzerland. The G-10 has tabled proposals on market access and domestic support, but not on export competition. The G-10 takes a relatively “defensive” posture on market access that calls for lower tariff reductions and a larger number of sensitive products than do other proposals.

Market Access • • •

Reduce agricultural tariffs by 27% to 45% for most products. The number of sensitive products would be 10% of tariff lines with linear cuts within tiers, 15% of tariff lines would have flexibility for within-tier adjustments. There would be no cap on the highest agricultural tariff allowed.

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Domestic Support • • •

Reduce the amber box ceiling by 80% for support >$25 billion; by 70% for support in the $15-$25 billion range; and by 60% for support $60 billion; 75% for $10-$60 billion; and 70% for support E010 LOG (LIFEEXPF) = 4.1603 + 0.1021* LOG (GDP#.1 / NP.1) (12.82)

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(-2.68) DW = 0.89

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Akira Onishi

+ 0.0393 *LOG (GH#. 1 + GSW#. 1 / GDP#. 1) (6.68) + 0.0042* LOG (GEDU#. 1 / GDP#. 1) (0.95) R*R = 0.9999 SE = 0.003

DW = 0.38 MLBM (1971 - 1999)

E010 LOG (LIFEEXPF ) = 4.3875 + 0.0304* LOG (GDP#.1 / NP.1) (14.2) + 0.0230* LOG (GEDU#.1 / GDP#.1) - 0.0944*LOG (TFR) (6.24) R*R = 0.9999 SE = 0.003

(- 23.78) DW = 0.78 MLBM (1971 - 1999)

Production Function

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E102 LOG (GDPP# / LCLF ) = 1.8504 + 0.5236* LOG (NHFCS#*CUR / LCLF) (3.75) + 0.0686*LOG (SUMT5 (ITI#) / (NHFCS#) (0.45) R*R = 0.9905 SE = 0.031

DW = 0.95 MLBM (1983 - 1998)

E102 LOG (GDPP# / LCLF) = 3.3526 + 0.2361* LOG (NHFCS#*CUR / LCLF) (1.76) + 0.1560*LOG (SUMT5 (ITI#) / (NHFCS#) (3.05) R*R = 0.9978 SE = 0.018

DW = 0.64 MLBM (1982 - 1998)

< Korea> E103 LOG (GDPP# / LCLF) = 1.0427 + 0.3697LOG (NHFCS# / LCLF) (0.63)

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World + 0.3672*LOG (EDUA# / LCLF) (0.62) + 0.1362*LOG (SUMT5 (GH#. 1)/LCLF) (3.15) - 0.1185*LOG (PEO.1*FERSI.1 / WPI.1) (-1.99)) R*R = 0.9884 SE = 0.034

DW = 2.29 OLS (1985 - 1999)

< China- mainland> E103 LOG (GDPP# / LCLF) = 3.5472 + 0.3606* LOG (NHFCS# / LCLF) (1.94) + 0.9886*LOG (SUMT5 (EDUA#. 1)/LCLF) (5.14) + 0.0046*LOG (SUMT3 (ODATCR.1)/PMS.1) (0.50) R*R = 0.9967 SE = 0.049

DW = 0.5939 MLBM (1975 - 1998)

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E103 LOG (GDPP# / LCLF) = 1.6088 + 0.1479* LOG (NHFCS# / LCLF) (1.30) + 0.6589*LOG (EDUA# / LCLF) (7.98) + 0.1569*LOG (SUMT5 (GH#. 1)/LCLF) (2.70) + 0.0132*LOG (SUMT3 (ODATCR.1)/PMS.1) (0.50) R*R = 0.9957 SE = 0.013

DW = 2.10 OLS (1975 - 1998)

Unemployment Rate

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E113 UNEMPR= - 0.5363 + 0.0298*LOG LOG (LCLF*HOW) (1.59) + 0.2136*LOG (WSEI.1/LPI.1) - 0.0125*LOG (GFCF#. 1/GDP#. 1) (10.69 (-1.57)) R*R = 0.9620 SE = 0.002

DW = 1.17 MLBM (1985 - 1998)

E112 UNEMPR= - 0.5412 + 0.0250*LOG (LCLF*HOW) - 0.0935* LOG (GDP#.1/GDP#.2) (1.99) (-0.47) + 0.0761*LOG(WSEI.1/CPI.1)/LPI.1） - 0.0636*LOG(GFCF#.1/GDP#.1) (0.73) R*R = 0.6143 SE = 0.008

DW = 0.65 MLBM (1985 - 1998)

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E113 UNEMPR= - 3.3116 + 0.1866*LOG (LCLF*HOW) - 0.2892* LOG (GDP#.1/GDP#.2) (6.29) (4.68) + 0.0169*LOG (WSEI.1/LPI.1) - 0.0883*LOG (GFCF#. 1/GDP#. 1) (5.19) R*R = 09682 SE = 0.003

DW = 1.69 OLS (1980 - 1998)

Wage Rate

E205 DOT (WSEI) = 0.0058 + 0.6488*DOT (CPI.1) + 0.0089*DOT (LPI.1) + (11.34) (0.76) 0.0359*DOT (OS.1/GDP.1) (0.82) R*R = 09413 SE = 0.007

DW = 1.62 OLS (1980 - 1999)

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World E205 DOT (WSEI) = 0.0078 + 1.1567*DOT (CPI.1) + 0.0424*DOT (LPI.1) + (6.09) (0.11) -0.0722*DOT (UNEMPR.1) (0.12) R*R = 0.9160 SE = 0.022

DW = 2.01 OLS (1980 - 1999)

E205 DOT (WSEI) = 0.0078 + 0.7493*DOT (CPI.1) (5.40) R*R = 0.723 SE = 0.026

DW = 1.34 OLS (1980 - 1999)

Prices

E250 DOT (WPI) = -0.0051 + 0.2650*DOT (PM) + 0.3976*DOT (WSEI/LPI) + (7.29) (2.74) + 0.1008*DOT (IV#.1) (0.69)

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R*R = 0.9253 SE = 0.030

DW = 2.37 OLS (1972 - 1999)

E252 DOT (CPI) = -0.173+ 0.0282*DOT (PM) + 0.8963*DOT (WSEI/LPI) + (0.82) (3.26) + 0.4048*DOT (TCR/100) (2.83) R*R = 0.7415 SE = 0.008

DW =1.11 MLBM (1985 - 1999)

E250 DOT (WPI) = -0.0051 + 0.2650*DOT (PM) + 0.3976*DOT (WSEI/LPI) + (7.29) (2.74) + 0.1008*DOT (IV#.1) (0.69) R*R = 0.9253 SE = 0.030

DW = 2.37 OLS (1972 - 1999)

E251 DOT (CPI) = -0.020+ 0.0345*DOT (PM) + 0.9585*DOT (WSEI/LPI) + (0.71) (14.98)

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R*R = 0.9613 SE = 0.009

DW =2.16 OLS (1980 - 1999)

Exports:

E142 LOG (E#MAT) = −4.6082 + 0.6624* LOG (GDP#), (1.04) −1.6411* LOG (PES. 1 *FERSI. 1 / CP I. 1), (−5.97) +0.4377*LOG (SUMT4 (RD#. 1) (1.30) R*R = 0.9834 SE = 0.161 MLBM (1976–1999)

DW = 0.5182

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E143 LOG (E#MAT) = −7.3445 + 1.2079*LOG (GDP#), (9.31) −0.3851* LOG (PES< USA>. 1 / PESAME.1), (−2.08) −0.3008*LOG (PES. 1 * FERSI. 1 * (1 + CTR@. 1 + NTB@. 1) / CPI. 1)) (−3.08) R*R = 0.9924 SE = 0.050

DW = 1.91 OLS (1976–1999)

Private Consumption Expenditures

E152 LOG (CP# ) = 7.7366 + 0.4227*LOG (DFI# - (TPI# + TYC#)) (4.13) - 0.3054*LOG (CPI / (CPI + CPI.1) /2)) - 0.2757*LOG (ICC.1) (- 0.38)

(2.63)

+ 0.0786* LOG (MTD.1 + SMV.1) / CPI.1) (1.54) R*R = 0.9975 SE = 0.056

DW = 0.52 MLBM (1973 - 1998)

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E153 LOG (CP# ) = 3.1230 + 0.5588*LOG (COMPE# - TPI#) (9.29) + 0.1430*LOG (OS# - TYC#) (2.94) - 0.1049*LOG (CPI / (CPI + CPI.1) /2) (- 0.26) + 0.1167* LOG (SMV.1) / CPI.1) (4.20) R*R = 0.9975 SE = 0.011

DW = 2.33 OLS (1981 - 1998)

Non-Housing Investment

E162 DOT (NHING# ) = - 0.6170 + 3.4881*((OS#.1 - TYC#.1) / NHFCS#.1 - IP.1 / 100) (2.64)

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+ 0.4182*DOT (ETFOB#.1) (2.36) + 1.0717*DOT (RD#.1) (3.77) + 1.0126*(ITI#.1 / NHI#.1) (2.52) R*R = 0.8479 SE = 0.041

DW = 1.998 OLS (1981 - 1997)

< USA > E161 DOT (NHI# ) = - 0.1713 + 1.5150*((OS#.1 - TYC#.1) / NHFCS#.1 - IP.1 / 100) (1.76) + 0.2770*DOT (ETFOB#. 1) + 0.2309*DOT (RD#. 1) (1.63) + 0.6138* (ITI#. 1 / NHI#. 1)

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(0.65)

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(2.16) R*R = 0.9031 SE = 0.022

DW = 2.07 OLS (1986- 1998)

Fixed Investment < China: Mainland > E163 NHI# = 3998.2 + 0.2682*GDP#.1 + 0.0718*ETFOB#.1 * PES.1/PMS.1 (5.74) (0.37) + 1.669* FCI.1 / PMS.1) (3.70) R*R = 0.9957 SE = 9985.6

DW = 1.17 MLBM (1980 - 1999)

Foreign Exchange Rate

E803 LOG (FERSI) = 0.1353 + 1.9332*LOG (PGDP.1 / PGDP) (10.84)

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- 0.2845*LOG (ESMAT .1 / ESMAT. 1) (- 3.06) + 0.0325*LOG (IC. 1 / IC.1) + 0.8318*LOG (FERIEUR) (1.30) R*R = 0.9709 SE = 0.076

(7.04) DW = 1.93 OLS (1980-1999)

Note: Where ( ) denotes T-statistics and DOT denotes percentage changes. (.1) denotes one year time lag. For further details of the notations, see Appendix A: FUGI global model 9.0 M200.

4. PROJECTIONS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY, 2006-2020 The 21st century will be an age of integrated technology innovations in the fields of information technology, biotechnology, new energy as solar and superconductor, nanotechnology, robotics, new materials , space-technology and etc. On the other hand, it is expected that this century will be an age of terrorism and refugees. Therefore, we cannot predict futures of the world economy, because the futures would have a large degree of “fluctuation phenomenon” that we might depict the futures as either optimistic or pessimistic images. For instance, the interdependent world economy will face not only transmission

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261

phenomenon of business cycles induced by the US economy but also global risk as such as speculations on the major currencies, oil prices and financial securities etc. Because the deficits of current balance of payments of the US economy will be enlarged, all over sudden depreciations of the US dollar against major currencies might be occurred by speculations. As a results, sharp increase in the US interest rates as long term bond yields that might induce sharp decrease of the US economic growth rates and the major engine of sustainable global economy will be lost. Same is true in the case of the US oriented sharp increase in oil prices by global “money game” speculations as well as sharp decrease in financial securities prices with regard to the US originated subprime loan issues. This is an example of the pessimistic scenario. John Hicks (1904-89) of Oxford University presented an interesting trade cycle model in his book entitled “A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle” (1950). According to his theory, business cycles may be occurred by the “fluctuations” in induced investments based on “acceleration principles”. Akira Onishi verified existing traditional trade cycle theories using 200 countries database and FUGI global modeling system. It is worth noting that the major causes of business cycles are very complex phenomenon in the globalizing interdependent world economy. Hick’s trade cycle model based on “acceleration principles” is mathematically elegant, but we hardly find out econometrically best significant relationships between gross fixed investments in real terms and increment of real GDP with one year time lag ( GDP#.1 – GDP#.2 ) in most of the developed economies. Fluctuations of non housing investments in these economies can be more adequately explained by those of operating surplus, interest rates, exports and R and D rather than increments of real GDP. In this sense, econometrics method seems likely one of the most powerful tools for testing economic theories. It is worth noting that the business cycles of the US economy, having large shares of the world economy, will tend to transmit to the rest of the world consisting of the global community through international trade, export-import prices, exchange rates, capital movements and stock market prices, etc. The gross fixed investments play a significant role to induce business cycles of the US economy and increasing rates of the non-housing investments are mostly affected by the ratios of profit/ non-housing fixed capital minus interest rates on fixed investments. In this sense, the US economy will play the most important role for the sustainable development of the global economy. However, the US economy alone may not have the responsibility in the global community but international policy coordination and co-operation might be much better in the futures of global interdependent economy. On the other side, Karl Marx (1818-1883), well known author of “Das Kapital” (1867) has discovered that dynamism of the market economy is dwelt on business cycles, although he made a mistake as “labor theory of value” infected by “nightmares” of David Ricardo (1772-1823). Depression gives positive repercussion on revitalizing the private sector of the market economy though severe survival competitions as seen in the Japanese economy for the depression periods, 2001-2005. In order cope with the depression, Japanese private enterprises have made utmost efforts to increase R and D for overcoming survival games in the international markets. Marx designed “Reproduction Schema” that gives an image of 10 % sustainable development model through the balanced growth between the producer and consumption goods sectors. Such kind of idea has been succeeded by Wasily Leontief (19061999) in his “Input-Output Model” that seems likely to be the original roots of his Global

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Economic Model (See Integrated Global Models for Sustainable Development, EOLSS). Onishi also designed an original “multi-nation growth model” as “FUGI global Model”. See [1] Onishi, A (1965) Projections of Economic Growth and Intra-Regional Trade for the Developing ECAFE Region, 1960-1970, Developing Economies, Vol. 3(2); pp.158-172, June 1965. This presents the original idea of “FUGI global modeling system”. Apart from FUGI global modeling system, Klein also has initiated his original idea on international linkages of national models as Project Link system (See Integrated Global Models for Sustainable Development, EOLSS). Under such circumstances, we would be better to start with the baseline projections of the world economy using the FUGI global modeling system. The baseline projections mean that what will be most likely futures, if the structural parameters of the model, estimated from the past data covering latest information, would not be drastically changed. Because of advanced modeling technology, we can efficiently carry out the baseline projections. Every day, we input new information and data to modify the initial values (CRS files), so that the baselines projection might accommodate with ever changing the world economy. It is worth noting that the future of the world economy is not determined by destiny but could be changed by policy co-ordination. This is why we have designed the FUGI global modeling system not only to make the baseline projections but also alternative policy scenario simulations .It is worth noting that the baseline projections are changing day by day in order to accommodate with ever changing data and information. The following baseline projections made in 2007 are just for reference to show an exercise of global model simulations using FUGI global modeling system, because futures will have large degree “fluctuations “ depending on human behaviors and policy co-ordinations. According to the baseline projections, the world economy is expected to be 3.0% and 3.3% during the periods 2001-2010 and 2011-2020, following an average growth of 2.6% during the 1990s. For the developed market economies taken as a whole, the average annual real economic growth rate will be 2.3% during the 2001-2010 and is expected to maintain to an average 2.4%, in the following periods, 2011-2020. The US economic growth rate suffered from 3.7% in 2000 to 0.8% in 2001 and 1.6% in 2002, because of double shocks of stock market crash and September 11 incident. It is worth noting that the US economy was suffered from the War in Iraq in the beginning of 2003, but is expected to attain a high growth rate of 2.5% in 2003 and 3.6% in 2004 because of an increase in defense expenditures against terrorists and the large scale tax cutbacks as well as increased research and development expenditures on new technology frontiers. For the period from 2001-2010, the annual average percentage growth rates of the US economy will be 2.8%, although suffered from “subprime loan crisis” in 2007-2008 and sustain 2.8% in 2011-2020. It is worth noting, in this context, that the US economy might be suffered from around 10 year’s business cycles (so called Jugular’s cycle) according to the baseline simulation (See Figure 1B). Such kind of phenomenon seems likely to be a psychological reflection of historical memories on business cycles. As a matter of fact, we will be able to change the destiny of business cycle by international collaboration of policies in the globalizing world. Although the Japanese economy, simultaneously, declined to the low growth of 0.4% in 2001 and 0.1% in 2002, the annual average of growth rates will recover from 2003, maintaining average 1.3% in 2001-2005 and attain 2.0% in 2006-2010. It is expected that the Japanese economic growth rates will be 1.5% in 2011-2015, 2.7% in 2016-2020 and 2.1% in 2011-2020, thanks to the technology innovation through increased research and development

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expenditures (R and D). On the other hand, the EU 15 economy as a group is expected to sustain 1.5% in 2001-2005 and 2.4% in 2006-2010. As a result of creating EURO-zone in 2000 and enlargement of EU, it is expected that EU economy as a group will maintain around 2% growth for the period, 2011-2020. In the developing economies, the average growth rate of 3.1% in the 1980s was accelerated to an average 4.6% in the 1990s. The vitalization of real economic growth in the developing countries as a group may be anticipated, with the average annual growth rate of 5.2% for the period, 2006-2010 (See Figure 1A and 1D). It is worth noting that the average annual growth rate of the developing economies in the Asian-Pacific region is expected to maintain around 6.0% in the following periods, 20012020. The Chinese economy recorded a high average annual economic growth of 10.1% during the period 1991-2000, but is expected to maintain its high growth for the period, 20062020. Fig.1A: Projections of Global Economy 2006-2020: Real GDP Growth Rates Unit: %

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

00 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016 017 018 019 020 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Developed Market Economies Economies in Transition

Figure 1A. ProjectionsFig.1B: of Global Economy 2006-2020: Real GDP Growth Rates. Projections of World, EU, Japan and US Economy 2006-2020: Real GDP Growth Unit: %

Rates

4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5

World United States

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

20 16

20 15

20 14

20 13

20 12

20 11

20 10

20 09

20 08

20 07

20 06

20 05

20 04

20 03

20 02

20 01

0

20 00

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World Developing Economies

Japan EU

Figure 1B. Projections of World, EU, Japan and US Economy 2006-2020: Real GDP Growth Rates.

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Akira Onishi Fig.1C: Projections of EU Economy 2006-2020: Real GDP Growth Rates Unit: %

4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

00 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016 017 018 019 020 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Western Europe Germany

France EU

Figure 1C. Projections of EU Economy 2006-2020: Real GDP Growth Rates. Fig.1D: Projections of Asian Economy 2006-2020: Real GDP Growth Rates Unit: %

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

00 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016 017 018 019 020 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

China India

Figure 1D. Projections of Asian Economy GDPEurope Growth Rates. Fig.1E: Projections of Africa,2006-2020: Latin America Real and Eastern Economy 2006-2020: Real GDP Growth Rates

Unit: %

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Africa Eastern Europe

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

20 16

20 15

20 14

20 13

20 12

20 11

20 10

20 09

20 07 20 08

20 06

20 05

20 04

20 03

20 02

20 01

-2

20 00

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Asia-Pacific ASEAN

Latin America Russian Federation

Source: FUGI global modeling system. Notes: For the periods.2000-2005, numerical figures are estimated by pre-projections using the FUGI global modeling system. Projection period is set for 2006-2020. If actual data for the periods, 1995-2005 are given, estimated figures are automatically replaced to actual figures in this system. Figure 1E. Projections of Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe Economy 2006-2020: Real GDP Growth Rates.

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The Chinese GDP growth rate of an average 9.6% in 2001-2005 is expected to maintain the high growth rate of 7.9% in 2006-2020. India is expected to follow the growth patterns of China and maintain an average of around 7% growth rates based on rich human resources, comparable with those of China for the period, 2005- 2020. The average 7% growth projection reflects the UNCTAD Secretariat scenario. In the FGMS projections, it is assumed that India will invite private foreign direct investments to a large extent and export oriented pattern of growth, coping with increasing deficits of current balance of payments to be derived from higher oil prices and higher GDP growth performance by introducing alternative energies and energy savings technology. India takes a lead in the numbers of IT (Information Technology) engineers in the world. It is reasonably expected that the higher oil prices will give positive repercussions on the oil exporting countries while negative impacts on oil importing courtiers as seen FUGI global model projections (See Table 2). For reference, Figures are shown on real GDP growth rates (Figure 1A, 1B, 1C, 1D, 1E) and average oil price trend adopted in the baseline projection (Figure 2A). It is worth noting that these projection figures are changing day by day so that we might carry out forecast simulation exercise everyday in the uncertainty world. Table 2. Projections of global economy, 2006-2020

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Annual average growth rates of real GDP World Developed Economies Developed Asia-Pacific Japan Australia North America Canada United States Western Europe EU15 Euro Area France Germany Italy United Kingdom Developing Countries Asia-Pacific East Asia China: Mainland Southeast Asia Indonesia South Asia India Pacific Islands Middle East

2001-2005 (Actual) 2.6 1.9 1.5 1.3 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.6 2.4 4.5 6.1 6.9 9.6 4.3 4.3 5.9 6.4 2.1 3.2

(At 1995 prices ) unit:% 2006-2010 2001-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2011-2020 3.5 2.7 2.2 2.0 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.8 2.2 5.5 7.0 7.4 9.2 5.7 5.8 6.9 7.5 2.9 3.5

3.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.1 2.3 5.0 6.5 7.2 9.4 5.0 5.0 6.4 6.9 2.5 3.3

2.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 3.4 2.0 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.3 2.6 4.8 5.6 5.7 7.2 4.5 4.9 6.2 6.6 3.2 3.8

3.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 1.7 2.7 5.5 6.4 6.7 8.0 4.8 5.2 7.2 7.6 3.2 3.2

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3.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 3.5 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.5 2.6 5.1 6.0 6.2 7.6 4.7 5.0 6.7 7.2 3.2 3.5

266

Akira Onishi Table 2. (Continued)

Saudi Arabia Africa North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

4.0 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.6

6.3 3.3 2.4 3.8 4.2

5.4 3.3 2.8 3.6 3.9

5.1 2.7 3.1 2.7 3.4

3.7 2.9 2.4 3.3 3.7

4.0 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.6

Latin America and Caribbean Argentina Annual average growth rates of real GDP

2.3

3.2

2.6

3.0

4.7

4.0

1.6

5.4

2001-2005 (Actual) 2.2 1.8 4.2 4.3 5.3 3.6 6.5 6.1

2.9 3.1 5.8 6.2 5.1 4.3 5.6 5.4

Brazil Mexico Mediterranean Turkey Economies in Transition South-Eastern Europe CIS Russian Federation

3.5 5.8 6.5 6.2 (At 1995 prices ) unit:% 2006-2010 2001-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2011-2020 2.3 2.5 5.0 5.2 5.2 3.9 6.0 5.8

2.4 1.8 4.3 4.4 4.2 3.2 4.7 4.4

4.7 4.2 3.6 3.7 4.4 4.3 5.1 5.2

3.5 3.0 3.9 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.9 4.8

Source: FUGI global modeling system (FGMS200). Notes: Pre-projection was made for the period, 1995-2005. Projection periods are 2006-2020. This projection has been made at the end of 2007 but has a large degree of “fluctuations” under uncertainty futures. Fig.2A: Average Oil Price Trends, adopted in the Baseline Projections,2006-2020 Unit: US Dollars per Barrel

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70

60

50

40 30 20 10 S1 0

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Figure 2A. .Average Oil Price Trends, adopted in the Baseline Projections,2006-2020.

At first glance on the Figures of real GDP growth rates, readers may find out “fluctuations” of global economy in the futures. In this future simulation exercise, we assumed that the historical experience to be stored in human brain might be repeated in the

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futures. However futures are deferent from the past. Everything is changing for ever so that futures might not determine by destiny but could be changed by “appropriate” policy based on human endeavors. The current “fluctuations” of the globalizing world economy are mostly brought by the “money worship” market economy. Needless to say about crazy speculations of New York oil price on WTI and incredible risk hidden fund management on subprime loan. However, some “decupling effects” to mitigate influences of the US economic turbulence are also expected to appear in the futures of global interdependent economy in the following reasons (See Table 2A; Impact of the US recession); (1) The share of the US economy in the globalizing world is expected to decrease. In line with the decreasing US influence, the enlarged EU(European Union) will play a much greater role in the global human society. Obviously, the EU is not “money worship” market economy but rather welfare and environment oriented economy as a group. Furthermore, EU is expected to increase RandD for new frontier science and technology in order to cope with “global syndrome” such as global warming, poverty, peace and security. (2) On the other side, the shares of so-called BRICs such as China, India, Brazil and Russia in the globalizing world economy will be expanding so that countervailing power against the US oriented business cycles might be strengthening in the futures. (3) Major cause of business cycles seems likely to be “fluctuations” of “induced fixed investment” so that government sovereign“autonomous” investment in these countries might have a stronger resistance against the business cycles. (4) It is also expected that the international organizations such as UN, UNCTAD, FAO, WHO, GATT, IMF, World Bank and OECD as well as G7 summit and G20 meeting will play a greater role in the sustainable development of the world economy in order to cope with potential risks as night mares of “Great Depression” initiated by stock market crash in New York in October 1929. The world economy was seriously affected from negative growth rates for the period 1930-1933. The outlet of “Great Depression” was a road to World War II. The emergence of newly organized international organizations after World War II seems likely to be outcome of awful experience in human history. (5) In this context, the author would like to stress needs for global co-operation and coordination of policies in the globalizing world in order to support the sustainable development of global economy as well as peace and security of the planet Earth. (6) It is worth noting that not only “appropriate” harmonized adjustments of policies but wise cosmic mind to promote human solidarity with the ever changing nature will be desirable to adjust orbit of the fluctuated global economy. (7) The above mentioned “decupling effect” does not mean of overturn a historical trend toward globalization of human society, although there are anti-globalization movements. Globalization will be more and more strengthen not only on economic subsystem but also every aspect of human life, involving population, foods, energy, environment, peace and security, human rights, health care, digital divide etc. In particular, “technology innovation” in telecommunication such as “internet” will induce toward consciousness of “global citizenship” in the futures of the planet Earth. On the other side, internet might be used for organized crimes in the

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Akira Onishi globalizing world. Creation of “humanoid” without human right might bring about a dreadful society. Technology innovation without progress in human mind might not increase peace and security of global human society. Table 2A. Impacts of US recession -Real GDP growth rates ----Scenario A: US growth rate would decrease 2% in 2008

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Deviations from the baseline World Developed Economies Developed Asia-Pacific Japan Australia North America Canada United States Western Europe EU15 Euro Area France Germany Italy United Kingdom Developing Countries Asia-Pacific East Asia China Southeast Asia Indonesia South Asia India Pacific Islands Middle East Saudi Arabia Africa North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Brazil Mexico Mediterranean Turkey Economies in Transition South-Eastern Europe CIS Russian Federation Source; FUGI global modeling system.

Unit:% 2008 -0.898 -1.184 -0.207 -0.216 -0.126 -2.815 -1.521 -2.921 -0.119 -0.115 -0.112 -0.106 -0.143 -0.116 -0.156 -0.203 -0.158 -0.102 -0.007 -0.454 -0.257 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.466 -0.028 -2.088 0 0 0 0 0 0

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2009 -0.036 -0.064 -0.176 -0.186 -0.093 0.012 -0.12 0.022 -0.063 -0.061 -0.068 -0.052 -0.116 -0.057 -0.026 0.017 -0.102 -0.107 -0.086 -0.169 -0.197 -0.005 -0.003 -0.017 -0.009 0 -0.008 -0.002 -0.011 0.313 -0.143 1.69 0 0 -0.001 0 0 0

Trade Policy in the Globalizing World

269

In this scenario A, it is assumed that the US economy would decrease by 2% point compared with those of the baseline in 2008. Simulation results reveal that the US economic growth rate indicates - 2.9%. The -0.9% lower growth of the US economy is derived from scenery effects induced by repercussion of other countries slower growth on the US economy in the interdependent global economy. It is interesting to note that the US temporary decrease in GDP growth rate will soon recover, because of decrease in trade deficit and oil price. The most affected countries by the US recession seem likely to be Canada and Mexico as member countries of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) as well as Japan, although BRICs as China, India and Russia may little be suffered.

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5. POLICY SIMULATIONS OF GLOBALIZING WORLD ECONOMY The 21st century is an age of humankind challenge for global syndrome that is not so easily resolved in a single country framework. It is worth noting that the 21st century is also an age of integrated technology innovations in the fields of information technology, biotechnology, new energy as solar and superconductor, nanotechnology, robotics, new materials, space-technology and etc. On the other hand, it is expected that this century will be an age of terrorism and refugees. It is widely known among economists that the word of “innovation” has been brought by J. Schumpeter (1983-1950), author of Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy in economics. His idea has been derived from Dwain’s findings in Bioscience. This is a good example that the science of economics has been affected by the progress of science and technology in other related fields. It is clear now that main roots of terrorism and refugees seem likely to be poverty and international per capita income disparity (See global early warning system for displaced persons (Onishi 1986, 1987, 1990) and FUGI global model for early warning of forced migration(http://www.forcedmigration.org) Forced Migration Online, Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford. It is worth noting that global risks on peace and security such as terrorism might not be resolved by mere oppression by military forces. The more oppression by military powers increase, the more terrorist powers against oppression might increase. This might induce a vicious circle of poverty and refugees as well as battles against terrorism without outlets.

1) Increasing International per capita Income Disparity According to FUGI global model simulation, international per capita income disparity (IPCID) will be increasing in the coming decades, although the position of both China and India will be improved very rapidly in Asia. Major poor hardcore in Africa, however, will remain at almost standstill states. In terms of IPCID indicators(average per capita income of whole world = 100 expressed by 1995 constant prices in terms of US dollars), Japan enjoyed as No. 3 position next to Luxembourg and Switzerland in 1995.But the reader should not misunderstand that Japan is a paradise country. During the period, 2001-2006, so called “black age” for the Japanese economy, average nominal wage rate per worker was decreased while nominal GDP was registered minus

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growth, although real GDP growth rates were maintained hardly plus because of decreasing GDP deflator. As a result, Japan’s per capita income in terms of current US dollars was strikingly dropped from No.2 in 1993 to 18th in 2006. It is worth noting that Japan is not paradise for immigrants because of very poor capacity to absorb refugees, although the population growth rates are decreasing. The official unemployment rate statistics of 4.4% (in 2005) and 3.9% (in 2007) do not include around620 thousand (in 2006) of unemployed youngsters called as NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training). If Japanese unemployment figures would be recalculated based on German standard, they will nearly correspond to French and German unemployment rates. If Swiss habitants would visit Tokyo, they should be surprised to encounter higher living costs staying in Tokyo. For instance, Swiss Gruyere cheese price in the representative super markets in Tokyo is almost seven times higher compared with the producers’ price because of non-tariff barriers. If they visit Kyoto from Tokyo using their own cars, they should pay the highway traffic charges almost same as the first class transportation fee of the Shinkansen (well known super express train). Public service costs seem likely much higher than benefits in Japan. There is a hope for Japan to escape from “Japan syndrome” if appropriate policies would be introduced in the futures. However, the Japanese actual situation was worst in 2007, because Japanese Government raised both personal income tax and local tax to a large extent. As a result, tax revenues of the government have rather decreased on account of slowing down of GDP (real/nominal) growth rate as the FUGI global model policy simulations show. As a result, government deficits could not be improved. This is a good example of inappropriate policy. On contrary, the US has introduced adequate fiscal and monetary policies such as cutbacks of corporate/income tax and interest rate against the possible global fears of recession induced by the US subprime loan issues. Therefore, Japan should recognize the needs for global policy co-ordination for coping with global risks in the globalizing world.

2) Impact of Higher Oil Prices According to FUGI global model simulation, higher oil prices will increase real growth rates of oil exporting countries but depress those of oil importing countries. Per capita incomes of oil exporting countries will tend to increase, while those of oil importing countries will tend to decrease. As a matter of fact, too much higher oil prices will have high risks to induce the depression of the world economy. However, moderately higher oil prices will provide an opportunity to develop alternative energy sources and energy saving technology in order to open the doors to use renewable energy and curve CO2 emissions against global warming. For instance, the Japanese economy has become much stronger against oil shocks after the oil crisis in 1970s because we have made greater efforts for creating alliterative energies such as solar, super conductor and safety use of nuclear power plants, etc. as well as energy saving technologies such as robotics, super express train using super conductor and innovative electric vehicles, etc. By the midst of the 21st century, it is reasonably expected that electric vehicles, including hybrid cars, will replace the present internal combustion engine vehicles. Human society, therefore, should challenge to cope with increasing higher oil prices beyond producer prices and increasing uncertain

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“fluctuations” by money game guided speculations as well as geographical risks in order to create a peaceful world.

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Table 3. IPCID – International Per-Capita Income Disparities. Average per capita income of whole WRD = 100 Unit: 1995 constant prices in terms of US dollars

World Developed Economies Developed Asia-Pacific Japan North America Canada United States Western Europe EU15 France Germany Italy United Kingdom Developing Economies Asia-Pacific East Asia China: Mainland Southeast Asia (ASEAN) Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand South Asia India Middle East Africa North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Brazil Mediterranean Economies in Transition Eastern Europe CIS Russian Federation 1 Japan 2 Australia 3 New Zealand 4 Canada

1990 100 508.9 670.6 720.8 499.5 393.3 511.2 454.3 443.8 526.2 580 370.4 370.1 23.8 14.5 17.8 7 24.7 15.6 66.2 22.5 367.6 41.2 6.8 6.8 66.9 15.5 27.7 12.6 71.6 83.7 82.5 58.2 60.9 57.2 75.3 720.8 373.9 315.4 393.3

1995 100 522.5 690.4 741.5 514.1 387.9 528.1 464.6 454.5 530.1 589.4 380.1 380.4 27 18.9 24.9 11.5 31.4 20.5 87 21.7 504.4 57.5 7.7 7.8 62.1 14.3 26.7 11.5 76.4 88.5 80.4 39.6 58.1 33 45.7 741.5 407.5 327.5 387.9

2000 100 539.8 661.2 706.1 552.6 404 569.1 482.8 473.4 559.4 596.7 378.9 397.8 28.1 21 29.7 15.2 31.2 18 88.7 21.3 587.1 51.8 8.4 8.7 57.9 13.9 27.1 10.9 74.9 84.9 83.2 38.7 63.1 30 40.2 706.1 429.6 315 404

2005 100 550.1 669.2 710.8 572 419.2 588.7 486.5 477.3 560.3 578.8 377.2 415.3 30.2 24.7 37 21.5 33.5 19.5 94.6 22.7 609 57.5 9.6 10.3 57 13.4 27 10.4 72.1 80.9 86.4 46.4 70.5 38 51.1 710.8 467 328.4 419.2

2010 100 561.5 669.8 710.6 602.7 450.6 619.1 486.1 476.7 557.4 570.7 368.8 413.9 32.2 28.3 43.5 27.3 37.2 21.5 104.8 23.8 698.7 67.4 11.1 12.3 58.2 12.3 24.8 9.6 70 79 86.6 52.6 77.1 44.1 60.1 710.6 479.3 328.8 450.6

2015 100 563.9 660.3 694.3 622 473.3 637.7 478.9 469.3 537.9 547.8 356.1 423.9 35.3 32.8 51.4 34.7 40.7 24 115.5 25.1 760.6 78 13 15 56.1 11.4 23.3 9 75 78.4 90.1 57.9 81.3 49.8 68.3 694.3 515 331.3 473.3

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2020 100 569.5 672.9 705.6 645.8 490.1 662.1 466.8 457.6 529.3 533.1 334.5 416.5 38 37.4 60.2 43.5 43 25.6 123.5 26 830.3 87.7 15.4 18.3 53.9 10 20.9 7.9 77.2 83.1 88.3 61.1 81.6 54.2 76.6 705.6 544 324.9 490.1

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Table 3. (Continued)

5 United States 6 Belgium 7 Denmark 8 France 9 Germany 10 Greece 11 Ireland 12 Italy 13 Luxembourg 14 Netherlands 15 Portugal 16 Spain 17 United Kingdom 18 Austria 19 Finland 20 Iceland 21 Norway 22 Sweden 23 Switzerland 24 China: Mainland 25 China:Hong Kong 26 China:Macau 27 Taiwan (Province of China) 28 Korea: Republic of 29 Korea: North 30 Brunei 31 Indonesia 32 Malaysia 33 Philippines 34 Singapore 35 Thailand 36 Cambodia 37 Lao P. D. Rep 38 Myanmar (Burma) 39 Viet Nam 40 Afghanistan 41 Bangladesh 42 Bhutan 43 India 44 Mongolia 45 Nepal 46 Pakistan 47 Sri Lanka 48 Fiji 49 French Polynesia

1990 511.2 529.4 639.3 526.2 580 219.1 285.7 370.4 727.7 492.9 199.6 273.5 370.1 561.1 532.8 544.2 592 541.9 926.4 7 386.2 303.5 189.8 163.6 40.3 384.2 15.6 66.2 22.5 367.6 41.2 5.2 6.4 40.6 4.2 0.4 5.7 2.8 6.8 10.2 3.7 8.3 12.1 49 351.3

1995 528.1 543.5 693.8 530.1 589.4 221.6 364.3 380.1 866.5 516.3 212.8 283.4 380.4 578.4 493.9 521 675.3 526.6 862.2 11.5 448.2 343.4 244.1 218.1 36.1 355.2 20.5 87 21.7 504.4 57.5 5.9 7.4 49.8 5.5 0.3 6.4 3.3 7.8 7.8 4.1 9 14.6 51 358.4

2000 569.1 567.2 722.6 559.4 596.7 236.8 523.8 378.9 986.6 553.3 230.7 309 397.8 580.2 563.9 572.9 693.8 559.7 834.9 15.2 454.9 285.8 274.3 237.7 31 337.3 18 88.7 21.3 587.1 51.8 5.8 8 59.6 6.5 0.2 6.9 3.5 8.7 7.6 4.2 8.5 16.2 44.7 350.1

2005 588.7 565.4 742.3 560.3 578.8 268 639.2 377.2 1050.2 531.6 226.3 330 415.3 587.2 609.2 575 709.4 576.4 817.7 21.5 485.9 279.5 282 270.6 29.9 321 19.5 94.6 22.7 609 57.5 6 8.8 65.2 7.9 0.2 7.8 3.8 10.3 8.2 4.3 8.2 16.9 42.5 356.1

2010 619 571.8 751.5 557.4 570.7 257.5 773 368.8 1098.1 546.9 220.2 339.6 413.9 591.1 612.7 615.8 753 562.4 795.9 27.3 482.1 259.5 313.1 287.1 28 284.4 21.5 104.8 23.8 698.7 67.4 5.8 8.1 71.1 9.3 0.2 8.8 3.4 12.3 9.1 4.2 7.6 17.5 40.7 343.6

2015 637.7 561.9 707.4 537.9 547.8 258.4 893.3 356.1 1117.5 538.5 227.6 350.9 423.9 597.3 595.8 611.1 742.7 548.7 799 34.7 479.3 257.3 332.9 304.8 27.4 249.9 24 115.5 25.1 760.6 78 5.6 7.6 76.5 10.4 0.2 10.4 3.2 15 10.1 4.3 7.4 18.8 40.5 336.1

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2020 662 519.5 697 529.3 533.1 253.3 1071.9 334.5 1092.3 501.9 231.4 343.2 416.5 588.3 558.1 597.3 711.2 537.9 779.8 43.5 442.8 232.6 338 319.5 26.4 199.8 25.6 123.5 26 830.3 87.7 5 6.8 76.6 10.6 0.2 12.2 2.8 18.3 10.5 4.2 6.8 19.5 38.7 313.5

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Table 3. (Continued)

50 Guam 51 Kiribati: Rep. of 52 Maldives 53 Nauru 54 New Caledonia 55 Papua New Guinea 56 Solomon Islands 57 Tonga 58 Tuvalu 59 Western Samoa 60 Vanuatu 61 Bahrain 62 Iran: I.R. of 63 Iraq 64 Israel 65 Jordan 66 Kuwait 67 Lebanon 68 Oman 69 Qatar 70 Saudi Arabia 71 Syrian Arab Rep 72 United Arab Emirates 73 Yemen Rep 74 Algeria 75 Egypt 76 Libya 77 Morocco 78 Tunisia 79 Angola 80 Benin 81 Botswana 82 Burkina Faso 83 Burundi 84 Cameroon 85 Cape Verde 86 Central African Rep. 87 Chad 88 Comoros 89 Congo 90 Djibouti 91 Eritrea 92 Equatorial Guinea 93 Ethiopia 94 Gabon 95 Gambia

1990 49.1 11.4 18.6 49 383.8 18.2 16.1 29.4 49 19.1 32.3 180.2 20.9 106.3 278.5 20.2 213.7 50.3 104.5 311.3 143.6 19.2 413.7 5.6 33.7 18.6 95.8 27 37.4 13.7 7.2 64.1 4.5 4.2 15.7 23 7.5 4.7 8.7 19.1 21.6 3.6 6.9 2.2 93.7 7.7

1995 49.5 11.5 21.8 49.9 373.2 23 17.3 34.5 49.9 18.5 28.1 197.1 23 49.7 312.7 22.7 314.9 74 112.5 297.5 140.3 23.3 388.1 4.9 29.5 19.4 85.8 25.5 40.3 9.2 7.5 66.6 4.5 3.3 12.1 25.9 6.8 4.3 7.1 16.6 16.4 3.6 8.2 2.1 92.2 6.9

2000 48.4 11.1 24.1 46.6 353.1 19.6 11.2 28.4 47.2 18.7 26.7 195.5 23.3 45.2 306.7 20.1 261.1 70.9 97.7 329.7 119.7 20.4 382.6 5 28.1 21.1 74.1 25.2 45.3 9.6 7.9 70.8 4.6 3 12.2 26.8 6.2 4.3 5.9 14.3 13.9 3.6 20 2.2 84.8 6.4

2005 48.1 10.2 26 46.3 331 17.3 9.1 28.6 45.7 21.8 24.4 216 26.2 34.8 279.4 19.4 238 74.4 85.1 377.1 119.4 19.9 441.7 4.6 28 21 64.5 26.3 46.7 10.5 7.7 77.4 4.5 3.2 11.4 28.2 5.6 3.9 5.4 12.4 12.3 3.4 19.9 2.2 77.1 5.9

2010 45.8 9 26 43.3 283.6 16.3 8.1 30 41.9 25.3 21.9 225.1 28.4 31.5 263.6 17 210.6 76.5 79 359.7 130 18.2 520.3 4 24.2 19.8 52.9 24.6 45.8 9.6 7.4 83 4.1 3.2 9.6 28.6 4.9 3.4 4.8 10.6 10.6 2.9 19.2 2 67.8 5.2

2015 45.5 8.2 27.2 41.3 296.2 15.7 7.5 32.1 39.5 33.3 20.3 240.4 31 28.4 254.4 18 181.6 79.2 78.7 336.5 120 17.2 528 3.5 21.6 19.1 44.5 23.5 45.9 9 6.7 80.9 3.8 3.2 8.3 29.7 4.3 3.1 4.4 9.8 10.2 2.6 14.9 1.9 61.5 4.8

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2020 43.5 7.2 26.7 37.5 287.4 14.5 6.8 32.7 35.7 42.3 18.1 246.1 32.8 25.7 234.7 20.5 141.3 77.5 71.9 311.9 116.7 15.5 533.9 2.9 18.5 17.4 35.5 21.2 43.5 8.2 5.4 68.7 3.4 2.8 6.9 29.6 3.7 2.6 4 8.7 9.1 2.2 13.2 1.6 53.7 4.2

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Table 3. (Continued)

96 Ghana 97 Guinea 98 Guinea Bissau 99 Ivory Coast 100 Kenya 101 Lesotho 102 Liberia 103 Madagascar 104 Malawi 105 Mali 106 Mauritania 107 Mauritius 108 Mozambique 109 Namibia 110 Niger 111 Nigeria 112 Reunion 113 Rwanda 114 St. Helena 115 Sao Tome and Principe 116 Senegal 117 Seychelles 118 Sierra Leone 119 Somalia 120 South Africa 121 Sudan 122 Swaziland 123 Tanzania 124 Togo 125 Uganda 126 Zaire 127 Zambia 128 Zimbabwe 129 Argentina 130 Antigua and Barbuda 131 Bahamas The 132 Barbados 133 Belize 134 Bermuda 135 Bolivia 136 Brazil 137 Chile 138 Colombia 139 Costa Rica 140 Cuba 141 Dominica

1990 7.1 10.9 4.6 16.2 7.3 7.6 9.1 5.7 2.9 4.9 9 60.7 2.9 40 4.8 5.9 221 6 6 7.5 11.7 129.3 5.7 0.9 87.4 4.1 30.4 3.6 7.7 5.1 5.1 9.9 14.3 118.7 143.3 286.5 151.2 52.7 660.7 17.2 83.7 61.3 43.5 48.4 48.6 58.8

1995 7.3 10.3 4.7 14.8 6.7 8.9 12 4.6 3.1 5 9.2 71.5 2.8 43.3 4.1 5.7 252.6 4.9 3.1 6.9 10.8 135.2 4.1 0.9 80.8 5.4 29.1 3.3 6.5 6.1 2.8 8.5 13.1 148.8 151.9 247.2 140.5 55.6 659.4 18.1 88.5 83.7 48.1 50.8 53.2 61.1

2000 7.2 11.2 3.1 14.6 6 9.9 8.5 4.2 3.1 4.9 8.9 81.5 3.3 39 4.3 5.3 260.8 5.2 2.8 5.2 10.7 126.5 3.1 0.8 78.1 5.7 28 3.3 6.2 6.5 2.4 8 12.2 145.5 155.3 232.9 147.1 55.7 617.8 17.5 84.9 88.4 41.7 50.8 48.9 64.3

2005 7 12.5 2.8 14.1 5.3 10.4 7.5 3.6 2.9 4.5 8.1 85.1 3.3 35.2 4.6 5.3 263.1 5.2 2.7 4.5 9.7 115.4 2.9 0.7 80.6 5.3 27.6 3.1 5.7 5.7 1.8 7.4 9 139.3 155.9 228 142.4 59.2 581.6 16.8 80.9 97 41.7 52.6 49.3 59.2

2010 6.8 13.4 2.3 12.4 4.6 9.9 6.4 3 2.6 3.8 7 85.3 3 30.6 4.3 5.2 255.6 4.4 2.5 3.8 8.3 99.3 2.6 0.7 79.9 4.7 25.8 2.7 5 5.5 1.7 6.6 7.9 152.9 145.8 203.5 130.9 59.5 526.4 17.5 79 109.9 40.9 51.4 46.9 51.1

2015 6.1 14.3 2 11.1 4 9.5 5.4 2.7 2.3 3.4 6 92.7 2.7 27.5 4.2 5.1 258 3.8 2.5 3.3 7.2 87.2 2.5 0.6 78.9 4.2 24.2 2.4 4.5 5.3 1.6 6 7.2 179.8 148 198.2 123.9 61.7 488.1 18.9 78.4 126.7 41.3 51.3 45.7 47.7

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2020 5.2 14.7 1.7 9.4 3.5 8.5 4.2 2.3 2 2.8 4.9 91.4 2.2 23.6 4.2 4.9 250.3 3.1 2.4 2.8 6 72.7 2.2 0.6 72.3 3.7 19.7 2.1 3.9 4.8 1.6 5 6.2 209.2 129 174.3 111.3 60.8 432.5 19.9 83.1 137.3 39.8 48.5 42.4 41.5

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Table 3. (Continued)

142 Dominican Republic 143 Ecuador 144 El Salvador 145 Greenland 146 Grenada 147 Guadeloupe 148 Guatemala 149 Guiana: French 150 Guyana 151 Haiti 152 Honduras 153 Jamaica 154 Martinique 155 Mexico 156 Montserrat 157 Netherlands Antilles 158 Nicaragua 159 Panama 160 Paraguay 161 Peru 162 Puerto Rico 163 St. Kitts Nevis 164 St. Lucia 165 St. Pierre Miquelon 166 St. Vincent 167 Suriname 168 Trinidad and Tobago 169 Uruguay 170 Venezuela 171 Cyprus 172 Malta 173 Turkey 174 Bosnia and Herzegovina 175 Croatia 176 Slovenia 177 TFYR Macedonia 178 Serbia/Montenegro 179 Albania 180 Bulgaria 181 Czech Republic 182 Hungary 183 Poland 184 Romania 185 Slovakia 186 Armenia 187 Azerbaijan

1990 28 30.3 28.3 412.9 59.5 195.8 27.9 117.1 11.4 9.3 14 34.4 280.3 83.1 28.4 141.6 9.4 51.8 37.3 41.3 213.3 91.9 65.4 28.4 44.5 16.2 84.1 94.7 68.8 213.7 144.1 53.2 97.5 118 206.6 27.2 198.3 17.3 35.2 108.8 99.7 59.5 32.4 78.9 31.6 21.9

1995 30.6 31.4 33.6 434.2 58.2 173.7 29.4 91.4 15 7 14 33.9 301.6 79.9 30.9 138.9 8.6 60.2 37.3 50.2 228.5 113.6 72 30.9 47.6 16.4 84.5 106.8 70.9 237.7 173.4 55.6 81.6 83.9 188.7 25.8 198.1 15.3 30.9 101 87.5 65.5 28.9 65.1 16.2 7.7

2000 37.6 26.2 32.4 419.4 68.6 160.3 28.7 84.4 17.3 6.5 13.1 29.3 310.2 87.6 31.3 132.4 8.7 62.5 31.1 48.2 238.1 133.2 76.4 34.1 52.5 16.5 92.5 104.4 60 242.4 172.9 56.9 94.5 92.3 201.7 26.4 213.8 18 27.3 97.8 100.1 76.8 24.4 73.1 19.3 9.6

2005 36.3 27.8 30.6 436.6 70.7 161.1 26.2 76.3 19.4 6.1 12.8 27 315 83.1 31.2 129.5 8.3 64.9 28.2 50.3 261.9 133.6 85.3 31.5 51.1 22 102.9 107.5 55.7 242.3 193.9 58.6 97.9 107.1 224.3 26.5 229.4 21.7 32.6 108.5 113.5 82.7 29.2 83.7 25.7 14.3

2010 38.3 25.9 30 424.2 67.8 153.8 24.8 67.6 22 5.5 11 24.9 299.8 69.3 29.1 120.3 7.7 64.7 25.6 56.8 266.6 123.4 88.5 27.8 44.9 26.8 109.1 102.6 60.6 229.2 208 58.4 94.5 116.1 235.8 26.5 241.1 22.6 35.9 113.8 124.6 90 32.2 97.9 23.8 18.7

2015 38.9 25.1 30.8 418.5 66.6 151.9 25.1 59.2 24.9 5 10.6 23.9 290.7 82.8 27.8 115.4 7.4 64.7 24 66.1 277.5 123.6 91.5 26.1 44.9 30.9 119.6 111.6 59.9 232.7 230.3 59.7 92.6 121.6 254.5 27.9 270.1 21.9 37.3 117.8 139.7 92.8 34.4 105.4 23 21.6

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2020 27.4 23.3 30.4 390.2 62.2 141.8 25.3 47.5 25.4 4.4 9.4 22.4 267.2 80.8 25.3 105.6 6.8 59.9 21.4 72.9 257.5 112.7 86.7 23.4 43.6 32 123.6 109 59.1 219.1 244.4 58.1 85.3 122.8 263.9 27.7 278.1 19.4 37.9 114.1 157.4 91.2 35.5 106.9 21.5 21.6

276

Akira Onishi Table 3. (Continued)

188 Belarus 189 Estonia 190 Georgia 191 Kazakhstan 192 Kyrgyzstan 193 Latvia 194 Lithuania 195 Republic of Moldova 196 Russian Federation 197 Tajikistan 198 Turkmenistan 199 Ukraine 200 Uzbekistan

1990 56.7 92.1 43.4 41.6 32.1 75.6 65.2 36.4 75.3 14.7 23.7 40.6 27.5

1995 35.3 64.6 11.6 24.2 14.6 38.7 37 14.2 45.7 6.9 13 19.1 19.8

2000 44 79.7 14.7 25 16.9 47.2 40.5 10.7 40.2 7 13 16.1 19.6

2005 54.5 92.7 19.1 34.4 18.5 63.4 53.2 13.1 51.1 9.2 21.5 23.3 19.2

2010 71.7 95.2 22.5 43 19.1 75.8 60.1 11 60.1 10.3 24.8 27.6 17.9

2015 96.3 107.5 27.3 50.2 19.5 83.4 59.6 10.9 68.3 10.4 28.6 31.5 17.2

2020 111.8 113.8 31.7 55.9 18.9 87.4 50.7 9.8 76.6 10.3 32 33.3 15.8

Source: FUGI global modeling system.

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3) Exchange Rate Policy Alone Will Not Improve Global Trade Imbalance According to policy simulations by FUGI global modeling system, the US dollar depreciation against EURO and Yen as well as Yuan (Chinese currency RMB)alone is not desirable in order to cope with increasing trade imbalance of the US, although China has moved away from fixed exchange rate to restricted floating foreign exchange system from 2005. There is a global risk of unexpected sudden depreciation of the US dollar against the major currencies, because of surprisingly increasing trade deficits of the US in particular with China. In order to cope with such global risks to be induced by speculations on the major currencies, burden sharing for the sustainable global economy should be needed among the US, EURO area, Japan and China. The FUGI global model policy simulations suggest that exchange rate policy alone will not improve global trade imbalances. For instance if yen will be appreciated against the US dollar, real GDP growth rate of the Japanese economy will be decreased in line with decrease in profits of major export oriented enterprises. Same is true in the case of Yuan appreciation against the US dollar. If Yuan will be appreciated against the US dollar, real GDP growth rate of the Chinese economy will be decreased. However “moderate” appreciation of Yuan will bring about more stabilization of inflationary pressures induced by Olympic guided “babble economy” (in 2008) to maintain more normal harmonized economy. In order to improve tradeimbalances, the US should make greater efforts for increasing not only international competitiveness on prices but non price competitiveness through expansion of RandD on advanced technology. On the other side, China also should take an initiative for sustainable world economy in place of the US by expansion of imports through mitigating NTB (Non Tariff Barriers) and increasing ODA (Official Development Assistance), in particular, technical cooperation toward the developing world for decreasing the international per capita income disparity, although China should make greater efforts to cope with increasing domestic per capita income disparity.

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4) Policy Against Japan Syndrome The FUGI global model policy simulations suggest that Japan should cope with incredible wastage of fiscal resources of “certain categories” to swallow everything like “black hole”.The Japanese bureaucracyseems likely to be the major core of Japansyndromeas seen in the “Tokubetsu Kaikei” (so called “special accounts” of 460 trillion yen in 2006 compared with general account of 80 trillion yen in 2006). The FUGI global model simulations discover that the more increase tax rates may need the higher tax rates. Because higher tax rates induce the lower GDP growth rates so that much higher tax rates might be needed. This is a “paradox of tax raise”. On contrary, tax cut will increase GDP growth rates so that tax revenues might increase in the longer terms, if the efficient and small government will be created by curving expenditures except those of education, health and science and technology. This is a “paradox of tax cut”. Rather stringent fiscal policy plus tax cut policy mixture seems likely to be much better than tax raise policy in order to cope with increasing the Japanese government debt outstanding.In the futuresJapan should take an initiative to sustainable development of the global economy and make greater efforts for creating a peaceful world reflecting on nightmares of “Hiroshima-Nagasaki”. It is worth noting that the most important point is to increase the GDP growth potentials for sustainable development of the world economy through global cooperation and coordination of policies.

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5) Policy for Increasing R&D In order to increase GDP growth potentials the developed countries should increase research and development expenditures (R&D) to induce technology innovations for the long run. In 2005, Sweden takes lead to attain the highest R&D ratios to GDP, around 4.0%. Then Finland, Japan, the US, Germany and France follow as 3.5%, 3.2%, 2.6 %, 2.5% and 2.2% respectively.FUGI global model simulation suggest that diffusion of technology innovations at the global level through increased RandD and technology transfer from the developed to developing countries should be much more stressed in the globalizing world.

6) Appropriate Trade Policy Against Global Disequilibrium According to FUGI global model simulation, appropriate trade expansionpolicy by mitigatingtariff and non-tariff barriers will be needed to cope with global disequilibrium in the interdependent world economy. It is worth noting that one of the major reasons of Chinese success story in economic development should depend upon higher increasing rates of exports on account of higher competitiveness with lower employment costs and stability of exchange rates. Withouttrade expansion on account of joining GATT, China could become “a factory in the world” and take over the position of the Japanese economy in the global market. Increasing global disequilibrium issues have appeared as a result of Chinasuccess story. China continues to accumulate a huge amount of trade surplus and foreign exchangereserves, while the US trade deficit with China continues. In the coming near future, China should face the policy dilemma whether mitigating tariff and non-tariff barriers to increase imports, together with introducing more flexible foreign exchange rates against the US dollars.

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Because trade imbalances between the US and China will be very rapidly expanding, rather than those of the US and Japan trade relationships as well as those of EU.

7) Expansion of Private Foreign Direct Investment Coupled with ODA Expansion of private foreign direct investment coupled with ODA; in particular, appropriate technical co-operation should be increased in coping with poverty at the global level. FUGI global model simulation shows that the international per-capita income disparity will increase rather than decrease. This is one of the major causes of international instability for peace and security in this planet. Without sharp inflows of private foreign direct investment, China could not rapidly catch up advanced technology for exports so that China might narrow the international percapita income disparities. In the globalizing world, expansion of both trade and private foreign direct investment will play a greater role of increasing economic growth rates of the world economy. Chinarepresents a success story of high economic performance and India will follow the Chinese pattern of economic growth if peace and security will be maintained. It is hoped that in Africa as well as Latin America, anti-feeling sentiments of nightmares against private foreign direct investment in the colonial age will be gradually turned into friendlier host country sentiments in the interdependent global economy.

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8) Role of Education and Healthcare FUGI global model simulation confirms that the role of education and healthcare should be more emphasized for improving labor productivity in the poor countriesas Swedish economist, G. Myrdal once suggested in the light of his experience in India. In this context, it is interesting to note that the life expectancy at birth is the longest for Japanese females, thanks for education and information provided by TV broadcast programs

9) Needs for Cosmic Mind It is worth noting that FUGI global modelingsystem is designed by “cosmic mind”. “Cosmic mind” means human solidarity to create common cosmic conciseness living on the planet Earth in the ever changing infinite dynamic cosmos by overcoming predilections on differences among races, cultures and religions.Cosmic mind for peace and security with harmonization with nature at the planet level might be needed for coping with global warming and risks of terrorism.Harmonized progress of human spirit with technology should be needed at this planet Earth.

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CONCLUSION The FUGI global modeling system (FGMS200) has been developed as a scientific tool of policy simulations for providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy coordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the world economy. The development of both hardware and software systems of high-technology computer has supported FUGI global modeling. The FUGI global modeling system represents a new frontier in economic science stimulated by information technology and life science. In the futures of interdependent global economy, policy simulations using global modeling system should be needed to evaluate impacts of policy exercises. Nobody could estimate the possible impacts of policy mixtures. The globalizing world will be getting more and more complex system structure so that human brain might have a limit of reasoning about possible cause and effect relationships at a glance. Therefore, we have to largely depend upon advanced computer simulation technology. For instance, various policy scenario simulations should be tested in order to evaluate “synergy effects of appropriate policy mixtures”. We need a navigation map to travel unknown globalizing world. This is particularly true to envisage trade policy in the globalizing world. In the globalizing world, the “appropriate” trade policy might be desirable. In the textbook of trade policy, there are two extreme disciplines, namely free trade vis-a-vis protectionism. It is widely known that Classical economist; David Ricardo advocated “free trade” against “protectionism” in his book “On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation“(1810). His original idea is that every country around world can enjoy “comparative advantage” through international trade and division of labor, even if it is inefficient to produce all products. His idea has been inherited in modern economics and reformed as Heckscher-Olin theorem. However neo-classical “free trade” policy might be modified in the light of reality of globalizing world. Globalizing world economy consists of multi-dimensional countries/regions where there are different stages of development and resources are not equally distributed. Every country all over the world cannot alive on self-sufficiency. It is clear that every country need international trade and division of labor that might support “free trade”. Since globalizing world market, however, will induce severe survival games on competition on not only prices but non-prices such as quality, design, safety, recycling, energy savings and ecology etc., among players, it provides big business chance for new comers with talent. In order to survive in the globalizing world economy, every country around the world might make greater efforts for “export diversification” and “import substitution” trade policy that might provide opportunities for increase real GDP growth rates. Such kind of policy might be particularly recommended to newly industrializing developing countries. It is worth noting that traditional “free trade” theorem based on “comparative advantage” could not be applicable to the all over the countries. Everything around the world is apt to change forever and interrelated so that a concept of “comparative advantage” might not be considered as a given permanent interrelationship in the globalizing world. For example, immediate after the Pacific War, everyone could not believe that Toyota would be able to overcome GM, since Toyota was far behind GM in all aspect such as

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technology and sales management power. But today this “myth” of “comparative disadvantage” of Japanese auto industry has been turned into “comparative advantage” in the globalizing world, thanks for the Japanese “appropriate” trade policy. On the other hand, globalizing world, “disparity phenomena” will simultaneously proceed. Not only increasing IPCID but also working poor is increasing important social issue. For instance, Japanese economy suffered from stagnant domestic demand for the period, 2001-2007. This means that domestic demand oriented enterprises face severe cutthroat survival games. Big global enterprises like Toyota could survive by making large profits from exports to the global market. Even smaller enterprises having specific skills and advanced technology such as “animated cartoon” have also fortunes to expand exports in the globalizing world, in spite that most of small and medium-scale businesses have faced increasing risks of bankruptcy. Labor share is constantly decreasing and working poor has become usual phenomenon. In the case of agriculture, situation is different from manufacturing sector. Japan depends upon imports to the large extent, although self sufficiency of rice is maintained by subsidy policy. For foods security and environment protection reasons, agriculture and forest industry will play a much important role in the futures, apart far from “comparative advantage” reformed by Heckscher-Olin theorem. It is of interest that there is a recent success story of a Japanese farmer to cultivate cabbages in Hokkaido located northern part of Japanese islands. Thanks to his original idea, he has succeeded to produce most delicious organic cabbages, irrespective of the myth as “comparative disadvantage”. Although Japan is foods importing country, it has increasing power for diversified exports of specific agricultural products in the globalizing world market. Therefore it is worth noting that the “appropriate” trade policy might be desirable. In this sense some “appropriate” protectionist policy measures might be acknowledged, although “endless” diversification of “new” exportable goods and substitution of import goods by introducing new substitute goods. Such kind of “appropriate” trade policy should vitalize the globalizing dynamic world economy in the futures. Metaphorically speaking, the world's around 200 countries including the UN and non-UN members can be thought of as "cells" which, when separate and isolated should only act in a disconnected way, each in its own fashion. But when given information concerning the global human society, the possibility arises that each country can take in information on what it ought to best to do, with the result that through a sort of feedback system the global economy will operate more smoothly. This is one of the hints given by the recent development of life science. The transmission of information is an important aspect of life functions, absolutely essential for the existence and continuation of life. Humans furthermore have a capacity by which some information is consciously perceived as signals from outside as a result of which new and useful information can then be generated from inside "human genome" information, taking on, in other words, takes on a self-organizing capacity. There are vital characteristics of the life phenomenon. The FUGI global modeling methodology has also received a large impact from of brain physiology. The human brain is made up of around 6 billion neurons, or nerve cells. The "right brain" has to do with what we call "pattern recognition," and specializes in the ability to grasp "images" and perceive things as a totality. The "left brain" displays an outstanding capacity to think logically in terms of symbols and words.

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A thick belt of the inter-brain ridge links the information inputs handled by the left and right brains. Images taken in by the right brain are sent to the left brain, where they are logically analyzed and checked out to see if they correspond with reality, and are then fed back again into the right brain. In this way, the brain can make judgments and produce new information. The working of the human brain, in which the neurons not only form a network through synapse but recognize each other, has provided some very useful hints for the construction of global models. This is because global models have the role of offering global information. If this information undergoes a feedback process reflecting itself in each country's actual policies, the future image of the world economy will change with the emergence of global information. In the future, mutual understanding can be expected to increase through global information exchanges, and it is only with this base that we can begin to talk about possibilities for international cooperation and policy coordination. The functioning of the individual cells that support human life depends on both genetic information and non-genetic information generated through "creative" endeavors such as learning. It is still in the future for a global model to be developed that will in fact have a similar capacity for "self-organization." Perhaps we will first have to develop a global system that will be conducive to the employment of such an avant garde model. But in this process, it may nevertheless be expected that current global models can give useful policy suggestions. An important phenomenon discovered through research in biotechnology is the so-called "fluctuation phenomenon." It may be appropriately said that the presence of fluctuations seems to be a basic and necessary element for the evolution of life. And again, this is a very important element in thinking about the global economy. Forecast simulations based on present baseline scenarios accommodate a large degree of "fluctuation" in light of the current unstable situation. At the same time, there is of course the possibility of controlling this situation and changing its course through more energetic international policy coordination, or, in the terminology of biotechnology, "dynamic cooperation" among countries. There are indeed many kinds of possibilities for invigorating the global economy, raising its growth rate, greatly reducing world unemployment, and promoting innovations opening up new 21st century frontiers. By demonstrating these possibilities through future simulations using the latest FUGI global modeling system, we can exercise alternative policy scenario simulations for the global economy and can offer suggestions to those responsible for policy-making in the world's various countries. In keeping with these new concepts, it will no doubt advance to new frontiers in economic science, while keeping much of its heritage of traditional economics. We ought to actively pursue this vision in new frontier of economic science, and in this regard we see FUGI global modeling system as one of the important intellectual challenges in the globalizing world. In conclusion, it is worth noting that not only moderate harmonized adjustments of international trade but wise cosmic mind to promote human solidarity with the ever changing nature will be desirable to adjust orbit of the ever changing futures of global interdependent economy. It is worth noting that Cosmos is an entirely recycling system so that there might be no wastage of resources as seen in the current civilized human societies. In the Cosmic system everything is interdependent and changing forever. In order to adapt with such a dynamic

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cosmic system, humankind should modify present civilization in the globalizing world. Consciousness of co-existence of human beings with nature and solidarity of humankinds will be needed. The more harmonized progress between technological innovations and human minds will be necessary in order to create a desirable trade relationship and life support system of the Earth in the post-modern futures.

APPENDIX A: THE FUGI GLOBAL MODELING SYSTEM (FGMS) FUGI GLOBAL MODEL C Akira Onishi○ September 27, 2000-2007

9.0 M200 (FGMS-M200)

******************************* I: POPULATION: E001-E019) ******************************* E001

LOG (BIRTHR)

= F ((+ N) LOG (TFR), (+N) LOG (NPFEA.1 / NP.1))

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If TFR would not be available, use the following: E002

LOG (BIRTHR)

= F ((- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1)), (- N) LOG (GEDU#. 1 / GDP#. 1), (+N) LOG (SUMT5 (DEATHR.1) / 5), (-N) LOG (LIFEEXP. 1), (-) DWAR)

E003

LOG (DEATHR)

= F ((- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (-N) LOG (GSW#. 1) / GDP#. 1), (+N) LOG (NPMO65.1 + NPFO65.1)/ NP.1), (+N) LOG (SUMT5 (BIRTHR.1) / 5), (+) DWAR)

E004

LOG (NPM)

= F ((+N) LOG (NP), (-) DWAR)

E005

LOG (NPMEA)

= F ((+N) LOG (NPM))

E006

LOG (NPFEA)

= F ((+N) LOG (NPF))

E007

LOG (NPMO65 / NPM)

= F ((+N) LOG (LIFEXPM.1))

E008

LOG (NPFO65 / NPF)

= F ((+N) LOG (LIFEXPF 1))

E009

LOG (LIFXPM))

= F ((+) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (+) LOG ((GH#. 1+GSW#. 1) / GDP#. 1), (+) LOG (GEDU#. 1 / GDP#. 1), (-) LOG (TFR))

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283

E010

LOG (LIFEXPF)

= F ((+) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (+) LOG ((GH#. 1+GSW#. 1) / GDP#. 1), (+) LOG (GEDU#. 1 / GDP#. 1), (-) LOG (TFR))

DEF

LIFEEXP

= (NPM/NP)*LIFEXPM +(NPF/NP)*LIFEXPF

E011

LOG (TFR)

= F ((-N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (-N) LOG (GEDU#. 1 / GDP#. 1), (+N) LOG (SUMT5 (DEATHR.1) / 5), (-N) LOG (LIFEEXP. 1), (-) DWAR)

E012

LOG (NRR)

= F ((+) LOG (GRR))

E013

LOG (GRR)

= F ((+) LOG (TFR))

E014

LOG (GFR)

= F ((+) LOG (TFR))

E015

LOG (NETMGTR)

= F ((+N) LOG (IPCID.1), (- N) LOG (UNEMPR.1)

E016

LOG (NPRURAL/NP)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDPAGR#. 1 / GDP#. 1), ((+N) LOG (TFR.1))

DEF

NP

= NP.1* (1 + (BIRTHR - DEATHR +NETMGTR)/ 1000)

DEF

NPF

= NP - NPM

DEF

NPFU15

= NPF - NPFEA - NPFO65

DEF

NPMU15

= NPM - NPMEA - NPMO65

DEF

NPFU15

= NPF - NPFEA - NPFO65

DEF

NATY

= (BIRTHR /1000)* NP

DEF

MORTY

= (DEATHR /1000)* NP

DEF

NETMGT

= (NETMGTR /1000) * NP

DEF

NPURBAN

= NP - NPRURAL

DEF

NPO65

= NPMO65 + NPFO65

DEF

NPDOT

= NP / NP.1 * 100

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Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

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********************** II: FOODS: (E020-E029) ********************** E020

LOG (EXFOOD#)

= F ((+N) LOG (ETFOB#), (+N) LOG (GDPAGR#. 1))

E021

LOG (IMFOOD#)

= F ((+N) LOG (CAPM#), (+N) LOG (FOODR# / NP))

E022

LOG (IMPCERL)

= F ((+N) LOG (IMFOOD#))

E023

LOG (FPROPCI)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDPAGR# /NP), (+N) LOG (NPRURAL / NP), (+N) LOG (CULTIVA / NP))

E024

LOG (CULTIVA)

= F ((+N) LOG (ARABLE), (+N) LOG (FOODR#. 1), (+N) LOG (EXFOOD#. 1 + IMFOOD#. 1), (-) LOG (EROSION)

E025

LOG (ARABLER)

= F ((+N) LOG (FOODR#. 1), (+N) LOG (EXFOOD#. 1 + IMFOOD#. 1), (-) LOG (EROSION))

E026

LOG (XPDFOOD)

= F ((-) LOG (GDP# / NP), (-) LOG (GDPMF# / GDP#))

E027

LOG (XPDSTPL)

= F ((-) LOG (GDP# / NP), (-) LOG (GDPMF# / GDP#))

E028

LOG (XPDPROT)

= F ((-) LOG (GDP# / NP), (+) LOG (LIFEEXP.1))

E029

LOG (TFOODR)

= F ((+N) LOG (FOODR#))

DEF

ARABLE

= ARABLE.1 (1+ ARABLER /100)

DEF

FOODR#

= XPDFOOD*GDP#

DEF

TFOODS

= TFOODS.1* (1 + DOT (FPROPCI)+ DOT (NP))+ IMFOOD + FOODAID@

DEF

FOODPOP

= (TFOODR - TFOODS) / NP

DEF

NMFOOD

= IMFOOD# * PMS - EXFOOD# * PES

*CALTIVAT < ARABLE < TLAND.

************************ III: ENERGY: (E030-069) ************************ < Energy Requirement >

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World Appendix A. (Continued) E030

LOG (OIL/GDP#)

= F ((- N) LOG (POIL / WPI), (- N) LOG ((COAL.1 + GAS.1) / ENGYR.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 / ENGYR.1), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (ITI#) / NHFCS#))

E031

LOG (COAL/GDP#)

= F ((- N) LOG (PCOAL / WPI), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 / ENGYR.1), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (ITI#) / NHFCS#)))

E032

LOG (GAS / GDP#)

= F ((- N) LOG (PGAS / WPI), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 / ENGYR.1), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (ITI#) / NHFCS#))

E033

LOG (ALTEGY)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (+) LOG (POIL.1 / WPI.1))

DEF

ENGYR

= OIL + COAL + GAS + ALTEGY

*If TFCE data are available, use the following sub-system

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< Total Final Consumption of Energy: TFCE > E034

LOG (TFCOILI)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (POIL / WPI), (-N) LOG ((TFCOAL.1 + TFCGAS.1) / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1))

E035

LOG (TFCOILT)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (POIL / WPI), (-N) LOG (TFCELC.1 / TFCE.1), (-N) LOG (BATT.1 / TFCOILT.1))

E036

LOG (TFCOILO / GDP#)

= F ((- N) LOG (POIL / WPI), (-N) LOG (TFCELC.1 / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (ITI#) / NHFCS#))

DEF

TFCOIL

= TFCOILI + TFCOILT + TFCOILO

E037

LOG (TFCOALI)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (PCOAL / WPI), (-N) LOG (TFCELC.1 / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1))

E038

LOG (TFCOALT)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (PCOAL / WPI), (-N) LOG (TFCELC.1 / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1))

E039

LOG (TFCOALO / GDP#)

= F ((- N) LOG (PCOAL / WPI), (-N) LOG (TFCELC.1 / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (ITI#) / NHFCS#))

DEF

TFCOAL

= TFCOALI + TFCOALT + TFCOALO

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Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

E040

LOG (TFCGASI)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (PGAS / WPI), (-N) LOG (TFCELC.1 / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1))

E041

LOG (TFCGAST)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (PGAS / WPI), (-N) LOG (TFCELC.1 / TFCE.1), (-N) LOG (BATT.1 / TFCOILT.1))

E042

LOG (TFCGASO/ GDP#)

= F ((- N) LOG (PGAS / WPI), (-N) LOG (TFCELC.1 / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (ITI#) / NHFCS#))

DEF

TFCGAS

= TFCGASI + TFCGAST + TFCGASO

E043

LOG (TFCELCI)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (PELC / WPI), (-N) LOG (ALTHTEC .1))

E044

LOG (TFCELCT)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (PELC / WPI), (-N) LOG (ALTHTEC .1))

E045

LOG (TFCELCO)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (PELC / WPI), (-N) LOG (ALTHTEC .1))

DEF

TFCELC

= TFCELCI + TFCELCT + TFCELCO

DEF

TFCE

= TFCOIL + TFCOAL + TFCGAS + TFCELC + TFCALT@

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> E046

LOG (TICOIL)

= F ((+N) LOG (TFCOIL), (- N) LOG (POIL / WPI), (-N) LOG (NUCL.1 / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1))

E047.

LOG (TICCOAL)

= F ((+N) LOG (TFCOAL), (- N) LOG (PCOAL / WPI), (-N) LOG (NUCL.1 / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1))

E048.

LOG (TICGAS)

= F ((+N) LOG (TFCGAS), (- N) LOG (PGAS / WPI), (-N) LOG (NUCL.1 / TFCE.1), (- N) LOG (ALTEGY.1 /TFCE.1))

>

E049

LOG (NUCL)

= F ((+N) LOG (TFCELC), (+) LOG (POIL / WPI))

E050

LOG (HYDRO)

= F ((+N) LOG (TFCELC))

E051

LOG (SOLAR)

= F ((+N) LOG (TFCELC))

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World Appendix A. (Continued) E052

LOG (BIOMASS)

= F ((+N) LOG (TFCELC))

E053

LOG (BATT)

= F ((+N) LOG (TFCELC))

E054

LOG (ALTHTEC)

= F ((+N) LOG (TFCELC))

DEF

ALTEGY

= NUCL + HYDRO + SOLAR + BIOMASS + BATT + ALTHTEC

DEF

OIL

= TFCOIL + TICOIL

DEF

COAL

= TFCOAL + TICCOAL

DEF

GAS

= TFCGAS + TICGAS

DEF

ENGYR

= OIL + COAL + GAS + ALTEGY

DEF

FOSSIL

= OIL + COAL + GAS

DEF

ENGYS

= ENGYR + NENGYTB@

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> DEF

ALTEGYR

= (ENGYR - FOSSIL) / ENGYR < Alternative

DEF

EPC

= (ENGYR / NP) * 1000 < Energy per < Energy per capita>

DEF

ESR

= ENGYR / GDP# < Energy Savings Rate: Energy Intensity >

DEF

AETR

= CO2EMN / ENGYR < Alternative Energy Technology Rate: CO2 Efficiency >

DEF

CO2PC

DEF

CO2ESR

= (CO2EMN / NP) * 1000

= CO2EMN /CO2 EMN.1995 * 100 < CO2 emission stabilization rate >

*********************************** IV: ENVIRONMENT: (E070 – E099) (ECOSYSTEM) ** ********************************* < Country / Regional Level > E070

LOG (NDISAST)

= F ((+N) LOG (DFAWC@), (+N) LOG (FLOOD), (+N) LOG (DROUGHT))

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Appendix A. (Continued) E071

LOG (FLOOD)

= F ((+N) LOG (DEFORES), (+N) LOG (DFAWC@), (+N) LOG (ESWARM)

E072

LOG (DROUGHT)

= F ((+N) LOG (DEFORES), (+N) LOG (DFAWC@))

E073

LOG (DEFORTR)

E074

LOG (EROSION)

= F ((+N) LOG (NP), (+N) LOG (ARABLE), (+N) LOG (ACRAIN), (+N) LOG (EXTIM@)) = F ((+N) LOG (DROUGHT), (+N) LOG (DEFORES))

E075

LOG (DESERT)

= F ((+N) LOG (EROSION), (+N) LOG (DEFORES))

E076

LOG (AIRPOL)

= F ((+N) LOG (FOSSIL), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (APNHI#. 1))

E077

LOG (WATPOL)

= F ((+N) LOG (NPURBAN), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (APNHI#. 1))

E078

LOG (SOILPOL)

= F ((+N) LOG (LANDCON), (+N) LOG (WATPOL), (+N) LOG (INTWAR), (+N) LOG (INTLWAR))

E079

LOG (NUCLPOL)

= F ((+N) LOG (NUCL), (+N) LOG (INTWAR), (+N) LOG (INTLWAR))

E080

LOG (APNHI#)

= F ((+N) LOG (NHI#))

E081

LOG (ACRAIN)

= F ((- N) LOG (SOX), (- N) LOG (NOX) (0 (MAX) < pH< 7 (MIN))

E082

LOG (SOX)

= F ((+N) LOG (FOSSIL), (-N) LOG (ALTEGY), (-N) LOG (TECHA#), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (APNHI#. 1)))

E083

LOG (NOX)

= F ((+N) LOG (FOSSIL), (-N) LOG (ALTEGY), (-N) LOG (TECHA#), (-N) LOG (SUMT5 (APNHI#. 1)))

E084.

LOG (CH4)

= F ((+N) LOG (NPRURAL))

E085

CO2EMN

= F ((+N) (CO2ETF*(0.996 * COAL + 0.804 * OIL + 0.574 * GAS))

E086

LOG (CO2ETF)

= F ((-N) LOG (TECHA#))

E087

LOG (CO2)

= F ((+N) LOG (CO2EMN), (- N) LOG (FOREST), (- N) LOG (BIOTEC@))

E088

LOG (ESWARM)

= F ((+N) LOG (ESWARMG))

DEF

FOREST

= FOREST.1 - DEFORES

DEF

DEFORES

= DEFORES.1* (1 + DEFORTR/1000)

Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Trade Policy in the Globalizing World Appendix A. (Continued) < Global level > DEF

CO2 G

= CO2

DEF

FORESTG

= FOREST

E089

LOG (CO2PPMG)

E090

LOG (ESWARMG)

= F ((+N) LOG (CO2G), (- N) LOG (FORESTG), (- N) LOG (BIOTECG@) = F ((+N) LOG (CO2G), (+N) LOG (CH4G), (+N) LOG (O3G@), (+N) LOG (CFCG@))

> I

ENVI

Destruction of Environment

I-1

NDISAST

Natural Disasters

I-2

WATPOL

Water Pollution

I-3

AIRPOL

Air Pollution

I-4

SOILPOL

Soil Pollution

I-5

NUCLPOL

Nuclear Pollution

I-6

DESERT

Ecological Imbalance

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

****************************************** V: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: (E100 – E899) ****************************************** +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 1. LABOR AND PRODUCTION < AT CONSTANT PRICES >: (E100 – E139) +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ E100

LOG (GDPP# / LCLF)

= F ((+N) LOG (NHFCS# / LCLF), (+N) LOG (EDUA# / LCLF), (+N) LOG (TECHA#)/LCLF), (+N) LOG (SUMT5 (NHI#) / NHFCS#)) Type A

E101

LOG (GDPP# / LCLF)

= F ((+N) LOG (NHFCS# / LCLF), (+N) LOG (TECHA# / LCLF), (+N) LOG (SUMT5 (NHI#) / NHFCS#)) Type B (BEL, DEU, IRL, LUX, GBR, SWE)

* If NHFCS# data are not available, NHFCS# should be estimated by using the definition on NHFCS# where NHFCS# (at 1995 prices) is assumed as 1.20*GDP# (at the estimation starting year 1970). *If CUR and ITI# data are available, use the following equation

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289

290

Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

E102

LOG (GDPP# / LCLF)

= F (((+N) LOG (NHFCS#*CUR / LCLF), (+N) LOG (SUMT5 (ITI#) / NHFCS#)) Type C (JPN, USA)

E103

LOG (GDPP# / LCLF)

= F ((+N) LOG (NHFCS# / LCLF), (+N) LOG (EDUA# / LCLF), (+N) LOG (SUMT5 (GH#. 1) / LCLF), (+N) LOG (SUMT3 (ODATCR.1 / PMS.1), (-N) LOG (PEO.1*FERSI.1 / WPI.1)) Type A (Non-Oil Ex.)

E104

LOG (GDPP# / LCLF)

= F ((+N) LOG (NHFCS# / LCLF), (+N) LOG (EDUA# / LCLF), (+N) LOG (SUMT5 (GH#. 1) / LCLF), (+N) LOG (SUMT3 (ODATCR.1) / PMS.1), (+N) LOG (PEO.1*FERSI.1 / WPI.1)) Type B (Oil-Ex.)

E105

LOG (RD#)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#. 1), (+N) LOG (GES#. 1))

E106

LOG (RD#)

= F ((+N) LOG (OS#. 1-TYC#. 1), (+N) LOG (GES#. 1), (+N) LOG (GDF#. 1)

E107

LOG (RD#)

= F ((+N) LOG (OS#. 1-TYC#. 1), (+N) LOG (GEST#. 1))

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

*If data on RDBE# and RDGOV# are available, use the following equations E108

LOG (RDBE#)

= F ((+N) LOG ((OS#. 1-TYC#. 1), (+) LOG ((OS#. 2-TYC#. 2))

E109

RDGOV#

= F ((+N) GES#. 1)

E130

RDGOV#＜JPN>

= F ((+) GEST#. 1)

E110

DNHC#

= F ((+) NHFCS#. 1)

*If DNHC# data are not available, DNHC# should be estimated by 0.07 *NHFCS#. 1 E111

UNEMPR

E112

UNEMPR

E113

UNEMPR

= F ((+N) LOG (LCLF), (- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / GDP#. 2), (+N) LOG (COMPE#. 1 / GDP#. 1), (- N) LOG (GFCF#. 1 / GDP#. 1)) Type A = F ((+N) LOG (LCLF*HOW), (- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / GDP#. 2), (+N) LOG (WSEI.1 / CPI.1/ LPI.1), (- N) LOG (GFCF#. 1 / GDP#. 1)) Type B. USA = F ((+N) LOG (LCLF*HOW), (- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / GDP#. 2), (+N) LOG (WSEI.1 / LPI.1), (- N) LOG (GFCF#. 1 / GDP#. 1)) Type C. EU (FRA, DEU, GRC, IRL, ITA, GBR, AUT, SWE)

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291

Appendix A. (Continued) E114

UNEMPR

= F ((+N) LOG (LCLF), (- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / GDP#. 2), (- N) LOG (GFCF#. 1 / GDP#. 1))

E115

UNEMPR

= F ((+N) LOG (LCLF), (- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / GDP#. 2), (- N) LOG (GFCF#. 1 / GDP#. 1))

DEF

GDPAG#C

= 0.3551436 - 0.1279891* GDPP# / NP +0.01691503* (GDPP# / NP)2 - 0.0009406098*(GDPP# / NP)3 + 0.00002291084*(GDPP# / NP)4 -0.0000002013468* (GDPP# / NP)5)

DEF

GDPMF#C

= 0.1241992 + 0.0200785*GDPP# / NP -0.002310938* (GDPP# / NP)2 +0.0001191378*(GDPP# / NP)3 -0.000002766923*(GDPP# / NP)4 +0.00000002371586* (GDPP# / NP)5)

DEF

GDPIN#C

= 0.2088974 + 0.05532418 GDPP# / NP - 0.007219928* (GDPP# / NP)2 + 0.000370202608*(GDPP# / NP)3 - 0.00000829076*(GDPP# / NP)4

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

+0.00000006798821* (GDPP# / NP)5) E116

GDPAGR# / GDPP#

= F ((N) GDPAG#C), (+) PEC.1*FERSI.1 / PGDP.1)

E117

GDPMF# /GDPP#

= F ((N) GDPMF#C, (+) NHI# / GDPP#)

E118

GDPIND# /GDPP#

= F ((N) GDPIN#C, (+) NHI# / GDPP#)

DEF

GDPSER# / GDPP#

= 1 - GDPAG# / GDPP# - GDPIND # / GDPP#

E119

LOG (IPI)

= F ((+N) LOG (GFCF#), (+N) LOG (E#), (+N) LOG (GDP# - GFCF# - E#))

E120

LOG (CUR)

= F ((+) LOG (IPI.1), (+) LOG (IPI.1 / (SUMT3 (IPI.1) / 3))

E121

LOG (TECHM#)

= F ((+) LOG (GDP#. 1), (+) LOG (ETFOB#. 1*PES.1/PMS.1))

E122

LOG (TECHE#)

= F ((+N) LOG (SUMT5 (RDBE#. 1)))

E123

LOG (LCLFM)

= F ((+N) LOG (NPMEA))

E124

LOG (LCLFF)

= F ((+N) LOG (NPFEA), (+N) LOG (GEDU#. 1 / NP.1), (+) LOG (CP#. 1 / NP.1), (-) LOG (UNEMP.1))

E125

LW

= F ((+N) CEMP, (+) LW.1)

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Akira Onishi

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Appendix A. (Continued)

E126

LOG (HOW)

= F ((-N) LOG (LPI.1), (+) LOG (GDP#. 1 / GDP#. 2))

E127

LOG (ITI# / NHI#)

= F ((+N) LOG (TECHA#)) Type A (JPN)

E128

LOG (ITI# / NHI#)

= F ((+N) LOG (TECHA#), (+) LOG (ITI#. 1/NHI#)) Type B (USA)

E129

LOG (LCLFF)

= F ((+N) LOG (NPFEA))

DEF

LCLF

= LCLFM + LCLFF

DEF

UNEMP

= UNEMPR * LCLF

DEF

CEMP

= LCLF - UNEMP

DEF

NHFCS#

= NHFCS#. 1 + NHI# - DNHC#

DEF

RDOTH#

= RD# - RDBE# - RDGOV#

DEF

EDUA#

= EDUA#. 1 + GEDU# – OBEDU#

DEF

OBEDU#

= 0.025* EDUA#. 1

DEF

TECHA#

= TECHA# .1 + RD# + TECHM# - OBTECH#

DEF

OBTECH#

= 0.05* TECHA# .1

* If data on NHI# are not available, use GFCF# in place of NHI#. : DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES : DEVELOPING ECONOMIES : ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION. : DGE + EIT +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 2. EXPENDITURE ON GDP< AT CONSTANT PRICES >: (E140 – E199) +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ E140

LOG (E#MAT )

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (PES.1 / PESAME.1), (- N) LOG (PES.1*FERSI.1 /CPI.1)) Type A

E141

E#MAT

= F ((+N) GDP#, (- N) PES.1 / PESAME.1, (- N) PES.1*FERSI.1 /CPI.1)) Type B

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293

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Appendix A. (Continued) E142

LOG (E#MAT)

= F (+N) LOG (GDP#), (-N) LOG (PES.1*FERSI.1 / CPI.1), (+N) LOG (SUMT4 (RD#.1)) = F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (PES.1 / PESAME.1), (- N) LOG (PES.1*FERSI.1*([email protected][email protected]) / CPI.1), (+N) LOG (SUMT4 (RD#.1))

E143

LOG (E#MAT)

E144

E#MAT

= F ((+N) MTFOB#.1, (+N) GDP#, (- N) PES.1 / PMS.1)

E145

E#MAT < ANIES, AME>

= F ((+N) GDP#, (- N) PES.1 / PMS.1, (- N) PES.1*FERSI.1 / CPI.1)

E146

E#MAT

= F ((+N) GDP#, (- N) PES.1 / PMS.1, (- N) PES.1*FERSI.1 / CPI.1)

E147

E#MAT

F (+N) ETFOB#.1 *PES.1/PMS.1, (+N) GDP#, (-N) (PES.1 / PMS.1)

E148

E#MAT

= F ((+N) GDP#, (- N) PES.1*FERSI.1* ([email protected][email protected]) / CPI.1)

E149

E#MAT)

= F ((+N) GDP#, (- N) PES.1*FERSI.1* ([email protected]) / CPI.1)

*E#MAT relates to exports from COUNTRY to COUNTRY E150

LOG (CP#)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (- N) LOG (CPI / ((CPI + CPI.1) / 2), (- N) LOG (IC.1), (+) LOG (CP#. 1)) < Type

E151

CP#

= F ((+N) GDP#, (- N) (CPI / ((CPI + CPI.1) / 2))*1000, (- N) ICC.1*1000, (+) CP#. 1) Remaining members of EU

E156 * E157

CP#

= F ((+N) GDP#, (+) CP#. 1)

CP #

= F ((+N) GDP#, (- N) (CPI / ((CPI + CPI.1) / 2)*1000, (- N) ICC.1*1000, (+) CP#. 1)

E158

CP#

= F ((+N) GDP#, (+) CP#. 1)

E159

LOG (NHI#)

= F ((+N) LOG (OS#. 1 - TYC#. 1), (-N) LOG (IP.1), (+N) LOG (ETFOB#. 1), (+N) LOG (SUMT3 (RD#. 1)) Type A (AUS, NZL, BEL, DNK, FRA, GRC, LUX, PRT, AUT, FIN)

E160

DOT (NHI# )

= F ((+N) (OS#. 1 - TYC#. 1) / NHFCS#. 1 - IP.1/100, (+N) DOT (ETFOB#. 1), (+N) DOT (RD#. 1)) Type B (CAN, DEU, IRL, ITA, NLD, GBR, NOR, SWE, CHE)

E161

DOT (NHI# )

= F ((+N) (OS#. 1 - TYC#. 1) / NHFCS#. 1 - IP.1/100, (+N) DOT (ETFOB#. 1), (+N) DOT (RD#. 1), (+N) ITI#. 1 / NHI#. 1, (-N) DOT (CUR.1) Type C (USA)

E162

DOT (NHING# )

= F ((+N) (OS#. 1 - TYC#. 1) / NHFCS#. 1 - IP.1/100, (+N) DOT (ETFOB#. 1), (+N) DOT (RD#. 1), (+N) ITI#. 1 / NHI#. 1） Type D (JPN)

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295

Appendix A. (Continued) E163

NHI#

= F ((+N) GDP#. 1, (+N) ETFOB#. 1*PES.1 / PMS.1, (+N) FCI.1 / PMS.1)

E164

NHI# = F ((+N) GDP#. 1, (- N) IP.1*1000, (+N) ETFOB#. 1*PES.1/PMS.1, (+N) FCI.1 / PMS.1)

E165

LOG (HI#)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (-N) LOG (IH.1), (-N) LOG (PHI.1))

E166

IIS#

= F ((+N) GDP#, (-) IP.1*1000, (+) ((WPI / ((WPI+WPI.1) / 2)))*1000)

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

*In case of production oriented model in DME and PME, IIS# should be treated as residual variables E167

E#

= F ((+) ETFOB#)

E168

M#

= F((+) MTFOB#)

E174

LOG (CG#)

= F ((+) LOG (GDP#. 1)) Type A

E169

LOG (CG#)

= F ((+) LOG (GE#)) Type B

E170

LOG (CG#)

= F ((+) LOG (GE#.1)) Type C

E171

LOG (PFCF#)

= F ((+) LOG (GE#.1 - CG#.1))

DEF

NHI#

= NHING# + PFCF#

DEF

GDP#

= E# - M# + CP# + CG# + NHI# + HI# + IIS#

DEF

IS#

= IS#. 1 + IIS#

DEF

GFCF#

= NHI# + HI#

*If HI# data are not available, HI# should be treated as nil DEF

GFCF#

= NHI#

DEF

CAPM#

= (ETFOB#*PES+ FCI)/ PMS

DEF

ETFOB#

= E#MAT

DEF

MTFOB#

= E#MAT

*Notes:1) If projected GDP# is larger than GDPP#, GDP# should be replaced by GDPP#. In this case IIS# should be Obtained as residual using the identity on GDP#. The system seems likely to be behaved as production oriented Model. 2) If there are needs to convert to GDP# components at constant prices to original data based on national currency unit, they should be multiplied by FERS.1995.

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Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued) +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 3. INCOME DISTRIBUTION: PROFIT - WAGE: (E200 – E249) +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

E200

OS#

= F ((+N) GDP#, (- N) IP.1*1000, (+N) (PES.1 / PMS.1)*1000

E201

OS#

= F ((+N) (GDP# - COMPE # - DNHC#), (- N) IP.1*1000, (+N) (PES.1 / PMS.1)*1000、

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

(+N) (ETFOB.1 + ICII.1) *FERSI .1/ WPI.1) E202

CQE#

= F ((+N) OS#, (+) CQE#. 1)

E203

PUE#

= F ((+) OS#, (+) PUE#. 1)

E204.

HPI#

= F ((+) OS#, (+) HPI#. 1)

E205

DOT (WSEI )

= F ((+N) DOT (CPI.1), (+N) DOT (LPI), (+N) DOT2 (OS.1, GDP.1), (- N) UNEMPR.1)

E206

DOT (WSEI )

= F ((+N) DOT (CPI.1), (+N) DOT (LPI))

E207

DOT (WSEI)

= F ((+N) DOT (CPI.1), (+N) DOT (LPI))

DEF

LPI

= (GDPP# / CEMP) / (GDPP#. 1995 / CEMP.1995)

DEF

OS

= OS# * PNHI

DEF

GGO#

= OS# - CQE# - PUE#

DEF

COMPE

= WSEI * LW * (COMPE.1995 / LW.1995)

DEF

COMPE#

= COMPE / CPI

DEF

DFI#

= COMPE# + OS#

DEF

DFI

= COMPE + OS

DEF

STDC#

= GDP# - DFI# - DFC# - TI# + SUB#

DEF

PUE

= PUE# /PGDP

DEF

HPI

= HPI# /PGDP

DEF

COE

= COE#/PGDP

+----------------------------------+ 4. PRICES: (E250 - E299) +----------------------------------+

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297

Appendix A. (Continued) E250

DOT (WPI)

= F ((+N) DOT (PM), (+N) DOT 2(WSEI, LPI), (+N) DOT (IV#. 1), (+) DOT (WPI.1))

E251

DOT (CPI)

= F ((+N) DOT (PM), (+) DOT (WSEI), (+) DOT (IV#. 1), (+) DOT (CPI.1))

E252

DOT (CPI)

= F ((+N) (DOT (PM) + DOT (CTR@) + DOT (NTB@)), (+N) DOT (WSEI), (+N) DOT (IV#. 1), (+N) TCR@/100)

E253

DOT (PCP)

= F ((+N) DOT (CPI))

E254

DOT (PCG)

= F ((+N) DOT (CPI.1))

E255

DOT (PNHI)

= F ((+N) DOT (WPI), (+N) DOT2 (NHI#. 1, GDP#. 1), (+) DOT (PNHI.1))

E256

DOT (PHI)

= F ((+N) DOT (PNHI), (+N) DOT (WSEI), (+) DOT (PHI.1))

E257

DOT (PEO)

= F ((+N) DOT (PESAME.1), (+N) DOT 2 (OILG.1, ENGYRG.1), (+) DY74, (+) DY79, (+) DY90, (+) DY2000)

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

*DY74: DUMMY VARIABLE, 1974 =1, REST OF THE YEARS = 0 *DY79: DUMMY VARIABLE, 1979 =1, REST OF THE YEARS = 0 *DY90: DUMMY VARIABLE, 1990 =1, REST OF THE YEARS = 0 *DY2000: DUMMY VARIABLE, 2000=1, REST OF THE YEARS = 0 E258

DOT (PEC)

= F ((+N) DOT (GDP#G.1), (- N) (ICAME.1), (-N) DOT (FERIAME.1), (+) DOT (PEC.1))

E279

DOT (PEGOLD)

= F ((+N) DOT (PESAME), (+N) DOT (PEC), (+) DY80)

E259

DOT (PES)

= F ((+N) DOT2 (WPI.1, FERSI.1), (+N) DOT2 (WSEI, LPI), (+N) DOT (PESAME.1), (- N) DOT (FERSI.1))

E260

DOT (PES)

= F ((+N) DOT2 (WPI.1, FERSI.1), (+N) DOT2 (WSEI, LPI), (+N) DOT (PESAME.1), (+N) DOT (PEC), (- N) DOT (FERSI.1))

E261

DOT (PES)

= F ((+N) DOT (WPI.1), (+N) DOT 2 (WSEI, LPI), (+N) DOT (PESAME.1), (+N) DOT (PEC), (+N) DOT (FERIAME.1))

E262.

DOT (PES)

= F ((+N) DOT (PEC), (+N) DOT (PESAME.1), (+N) DOT2 (WPI.1, FERSI.1), (+N) DOT2 (WSEI.1, FERSI.1))

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Appendix A. (Continued) E263

DOT (PES)

= F ((+N) DOT (PEO), (+N) DOT2 (WPI.1, FERSI.1), (+N) DOT 2 (WSEI.1, FERSI.1))

E264

DOT (PES)

E265

DOT (PECOAL)

= F ((+N) DOT (PEC), (+N) DOT (PESAME.1), (+N) DOT2 (WPI.1, FERSI.1), (+N) DOT2 (WSEI.1, FERSI.1)) = F ( (+N) DOT (PEO), (+N) DOT2 (COAL.1, ENGYRG.1))

E266

DOT (PEGAS)

= F ( (+N) DOT (PEO), (+N) DOT2 (GAS.1, ENGYRG.1))

E267

DOT (POIL)

= F ( (+N) (DOT (PEO) + DOT (FERSI)), (+N) DOT (WPI.1), (+N) DOT2 (OIL.1, ENGYR.1))

DEF

POIL

= POIL * (1 + CTAXRO@ / 100)

E268

DOT (PCOAL)

= F ( (+N) (DOT (PECOAL + DOT (FERSI)), (+N) DOT (WPI.1) (+N) DOT2 (COAL.1, ENGYR.1))

DEF

PCOAL

= PCOAL * ( 1 + CTAXRC@ / 100 )

E269

DOT (PGAS)

= F ((+N) (DOT (PEGAS + DOT (FERSI)), (+N) DOT (PELC), (+N) DOT (WPI.1) (+N) DOT2 (GAS.1, ENGYR.1))

DEF

PGAS

= PGAS * ( 1 + CTAXRG@ / 100 )

E270

DOT (PNUCL)

= F ( (+N) DOT (WPI.1) )

E271

DOT (PELC)

= F ( (+N) DOT (WPI.1) )

E272

DOT (SPI)

= F ((+N) (OS- TYC) / NHFCS#*PNHI – IP / 100, (+N) DOT2 (M2,GDP), (+N)) (OS.1- TYC.1) / SMV.1 – IB.1 / 100, (+ N) DOT (GDP#) – DOT (GDP#. 1), (+N) DOT (CPI) – DOT (CPI.1), (-N) DOT (FERSI) – DOT (FERSI.1), (+ N) DOT (SPI)

E273

DOT (SPI )

= F ((+N) (OS- TYC) / NHFCS#*PNHI – IP / 100, (+N) DOT2 (M2, GDP), (+N)) (OS.1- TYC.1) / SMV.1 – IB.1 / 100, (+N) DOT (CPI) – DOT (CPI.1), (+N) DOT2 (ITI#, NHI#), (- N) DOT (SPI.1))

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World Appendix A. (Continued) E274

DOT (SPI )

= F ((+N) (OS- TYC) / NHFCS#*PNHI – IP / 100, (+N) DOT 2(M2,GDP), (+N)) (OS.1- TYC.1) / SMV.1 – IB.1 / 100, (+ N) DOT (GDP#) – DOT (GDP#. 1), (+N) DOT (CPI) – DOT (CPI.1), (+N) DOT2 (ITI#, NHI#), (+N) DOT (SPI ))

E275

DOT (PLAND)

= F ((+N) DOT (M2), (+ N) DOT (GDP#) – GDP# / (GDP#+GDP#. 1) / 2, (- N) DOT (FERSI) - FERSI / ((FERSI+FERSI.1) / 2), (+N) DOT (GFCF#. 1), (+N) DOT (SPI.1))

DEF

PE

= PES * FERSI

DEF

PMS

= ESMAT / (E#MAT )

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

*PMS data should be obtained from trade matrices, using PES. Do not make any adjustment. DEF

PM

= PMS * FERSI

E276

DOT (PENA)

= F ((+N) DOT (PE)

E277

DOT (PMNA)

= F ((+N) DOT (PM))

E278

DOT (PPFCF)

= F ((+N) DOT (WPI), (+N) DOT2 (NHI#. 1, GDP#. 1), (+) DOT (PPFCF))

E280

DOT (PNHING)

= F ((+N) DOT (WPI), (+N) DOT2 (NHI#. 1, GDP#. 1), (+) DOT (PNHING))

DEF

PGDP

= GDP / GDP#

DEF

PEOB

=PEO*PEOB.95

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 5. EXPENDITURE ON GDP< AT CURRENT PRICES >: +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ DEF

E

= PENA * E#

DEF

M

= PMNA * M#

DEF

CP

= PCP * CP#

DEF

CG

= PCG * CG#

DEF

NHI

= PNHI * NHI#

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300

Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

DEF

PFCF

= PPFCF*PFCF#

DEF

NHINP

=PNHINP*NHINP#

DEF

NHI

NHINP + PFCF

DEF DEF

HI IIS

= PHI * HI# = WPI * IIS#

DEF

GFCF

= NHI + HI

*If HI data are not available, HI should be zero. DEF

GFCF

= NHI

DEF

GDP

= E - M + CP + CG + NHI + HI + IIS

* If there are needs to convert to current GDP components to original data based on national currencies, they should be multiplied by FERS.1995. If there are needs to convert them in terms of current US dollars, they should be divided by FERSI. If you want to reconvert them in terms of current EURO, they should be further divided by FEREURO. *Note: E300 – E 399 are allocated to the merchandise trade model. (See Annex – FUGI Global Merchandise Trade Model).

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 6. MONEY, INTEREST RATES and FINANCIAL ASSETS: (E400– E499) +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ E400

M1

= F ((+N) GDP, (-N) IN.1*1000) Type A

E401

LOG (M1)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#), (+N) LOG (PGDP), (- N) LOG (IN.1)) Type B: JPN

E402

MTD

= F ((+N) GDP, (-N)(((IB.1 – ITD.1) / ITD.1)*1000, (+) MTD.1)

DEF

M2

= M1 + MTD

E403

CCG

= F ((+N) (GE – GR), (+) CCG.1

E404

LOG (CPS)

= F ((+N) LOG (NHI + HI +IIS), (-N) LOG (IN.1), (+N) LOG (MTD.1 / GDP.1), (-N) LOG (IB.1 – IP.1) / IP.1)

DEF

IV#

= (M2 / GDP#) / (M2 .1995 / GDP#. 1995)

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Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Appendix A. (Continued) E405

IN

= F ((+N) (1 + DOT (CPI) – CPI / ((CPI + CPI.1) / 2)), (+N) (1 + DOT (GDP#)-GDP# / ((GDP# + GDP#. 1) / 2)), (+N) (1 + DOT (FERSI)), (+N) IN.1)

E406

IN

= F ((+N) (1+ DOT (CPI) – CPI / ((CPI + CPI.1) / 2)), (+N) (1+ DOT (GDP#) – GDP# / ((GDP# + GDP#. 1) / 2)), (- N) (1 + DOT (FERIAME), (+N) IC.1)

E407

INEU

= F ((+N) (1+ DOT (CPIEU) – CPIEU / ((CPIEU + CPIEU.1) / 2)), (+N) (1+ DOT (GDP#EU)-GDP#EU/ ((GDP#EU + GDP#EU.1) / 2)), (+N) (1+ DOT (FERIEUR)), (+N) INEU.1)

E408

IN

+ F (IN.1)

E409

IN

= F ((+N) INEU

DEF

IN

= INEU (After 2001)

E410

IC

= F ((+N) IN, (+N) DOT (CPI), (- N) DOT (M2), (+N) IC.1) Type A

E411

IC< AME>

= F ((+N) IN, (+N) DOT (CPI), (- N) DOT (M2), (+N) DOT (CCG + CPS), (+N) IC.1) Type B: JPN, USA

E412

ICEU

= F ((+N) INEU, (+N) DOT (CPIEU), (+N) ICEU.1)

E413

IC

= F ((+N) ICEU)

E414

IB

= F ((+N) IN, (+N) IC, (+N) IB.1)

E415

IB

= F ((+N) IN, (+N) IC)

E416

IB

= F ((+N) IN, (+N) IC, (+N) IB.1)

E417

IBEU

= F ((+N) IN, (+N) ICEU, (+N) IBEU.1)

E418

IB

= F ((+N) IBEU)

E419

IP

= F ((+N) IC)

E420

IH

= F ((+N) IP)

E421

ITD

= F ((+N) IP)

E422

ISEURO

= F (+N) IC)

E423

LIBOR

= F ((+N) ISEURO)

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302

Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

E424

LOG (SMV)

= F ((+) LOG (SPI))

E425

ICC

= F ((+N) IP)

*In case of DME, IN may be treated as exogenous variable as IN@. +--------------------------------------------------------------+ 7. GOVERNMENT FINANCE: (E500 – E599) +--------------------------------------------------------------+ Type A > E500.

GR#

= F ( (+N) (GDP#.1), (+) ( (E#.1 + M#.1))

*Detailed

Data on

Government finance GR are available, use the followings;

E501

TPI#

= F ((+) (COMPE#. 1 + PUE#. 1 + HPI#. 1))

E502

TYC#

= F ((+N) OS#. 1)

E503

SSC#

= F ((+N) (COMPE#. 1 + OS#. 1)

E504

TP#

= F ((+N) GDP#. 1)

E505

TDGS#

= F ((+N) GDP#. 1)

E506

TITT#

= F ((+N) (MMFOB.1*FERSI.1/ PM.1)

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

If CTR@ data are available, use the following equation. E509

TITT#

= F ((+N) (MMFOB.1*FERSI.1/ PM.1)*CTR@)

E507

TIR#

= F ((+N) GDP#. 1)

E508

NTR#

= F ((+N) GDP#. 1)

DEF

TD#

= TPI# + TYC# + TP#

DEF

TID#

= TDGS# + TITT# + TIR#

DEF

TR#

= TD# + TID#

DEF

GR#

= TR# + NTR# + SSC# + GRANT#@

DEF

GR

= GR#*PGDP

DEF

TITT

= TITT# *PM

> E510

GE#

= F ((+N) GR#))

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303

Appendix A. (Continued)

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

*Detailed data on government finance GE are available, use the followings; E511

GPS#

= F ((+N) GR#)

E512

GDF#

= F ((+N) GR#)

E513

LOG (GDF#)

= F ((+N) LOG (GR#), (+N) DY8186) * DY8186: 1981 – 86 =1, Rest of years =0

E514

LOG (GDF#)

E515

LOG (POS#)

= F ((+N)(LOG (GDF#.1 / GDP#.1), (+N) DY8186) = F ((+) LOG (GR#))

E516

LOG (GEDU#)

= F ((+) LOG (GR#))

E517

LOG (GH#)

= F ((+) LOG (GR#))

E518

LOG (GSW#)

= F ((+) LOG (GR#))

E519

LOG (GHC#)

= F ((+) LOG (GR#))

E520

GSS#

= F ((+) GR#)

E521

GES#

= F ((+) GR#)

E522

GEOP#

= F ((+) GR#)

DEF

GTE#

= GPS# + GDF# + GEDU# + GH# + GSW# + GHC# + GSS #+ GES# + GEOP#

DEF

GE#

= GTE# + GLMR#@

DEF

GE

= GE#*PGDP

DEF

GDOS

= GR - GE

DEF

GDOS#

= GR# - GE#

E523

DGD

= F ((+) (GE - GR))

E524

GBR

= F ((+) (DGD)

DEF

GDO

= GDO.1 + DGD

DEF

GDOGDP

= (GDO /GDP)*100

DEF

GBRGE

= (GBR /GE)*100

> E525

GCE#

= F ((+) GE#)

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304

Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

E526

GIP

= F ((+) GDO.1 * IB.1 / 100)

E527

CAE#

= F ((+) (GHC#+GES#))

Type B Type

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

> E551

LOG (TPI)

= F ((+N) LOG (COMPE + PUE + HPI))

E552

LOG (TYC)

= F ((+N) LOG (OS))

E553

LOG (TP)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP.))

E554

LOG (TC)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP*TCR@)/100))

E555

TITT

= F ((+N) MMMOB*FERSI*CTR@)

E556

LOG (TIR)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP))

E557

LOG (NTR)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP))

E558

LOG (SSC)

= F ((+N) LOG (COMPE + OS))

DEF

TD

= TPI + TYC + TP

DEF

TID

= TC + TITT + TIR

DEF

TR

= TD+ TID

DEF

GR

= TR + NTR

DEF

GBR

= GE – GR

DEF

RG

= GR + GBR

DEF

GR#

=GR/PGDP

DEF

RG#

=RG/PGDP

DEF

TPI#

=TPI/PGDP

DEF

TYC#

=TYC/PGDP

> E561

GDS

= F ((+N) (GDO.1 * IB.1 / 100))

E562

LOG (GLPF)

= F ((N) LOG (GR))

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Appendix A. (Continued) E563

LOG (GSW)

= F ((N) LOG (GR))

E564

LOG (GH)

= F ((+N) LOG (GSW))

E565

LOG (GEDU)

= F ((N) LOG (GR))

E566

LOG (GEST)

= F ((+N) LOG (GEDU))

E567

LOG (GDF)

= F ((N) LOG (GR))

E568

LOG (GPW)

= F ((N) LOG (GR))

E569

LOG (GEOP)

= F ((N) LOG (GR))

E570

GBPREP

= F ((+N) GDO.1, (-N) GDS.1)

DEF

GDOS

= GR – GE

DEF

GE

= GDS + GLPF + GSW + GEDU + GDF +GPW + GEOP

DEF

GBR

= GE – GR

E571

GDO

= F ((+N) (GDO.1 + GBR – GBPREP))

DEF

GDOGDP

= (GDO/GDP)*100

DEF

GBRGE

= (GBR/GE)*100

DEF

GDS#

= GDS/PGDP

DEF

GLPF#

= GLPF /PGDP

DEF

GSW#

= GSW /PGDP

DEF

GH#

= GH/ PGDP

DEF

GEST#

= GEST /PGDP

DEF

GDF#

= GDF/PGDP

DEF

GPW#

= GPW /PGDP

DEF

GEOP#

= GEOP /PGDP

DEF

GDOS#

= GDOS /PGDP

DEF

GE#

= GE /PGDP

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305

306

Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued) +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ INTERNATIONAL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: (E600 – E659) +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

E600

EMFOB

= F ((+) ETFOB)

E601

MMFOB

= F ((+) MTFOB)

E602

SC

= F ((+) ETFOB)

E603

SD

= F ((+) MTFOB)

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

*If data are available, use the following equations. E604

SCTPN

= F ((+) ETFOB)

E605

SDTPN

= F ((+) MTFOB)

E606

SCTR

= F ((+N) FERSI*1000, (+N) DOT (GDP#. 1)*1000, (- N) DOT (CPI)*1000, (+N) GDPS.1 / NP.1)

E607

SDTR

E 608

LOG (SCOTH)

= F ((- N) FERSI*1000, (+N) GDPS.1 / NP.1, (+N) GDP#. 1*CPI.1 / FERSI.1)) = F ((+N) LOG (GDPS.1 / NP.1), (+N) LOG ((RD#. 1 / GDP#. 1))

E609

LOG (SDOTH)

= F ((+) LOG (GDPS.1 / NP.1))

E610

DIA

= F ((+N) GDPS, (+N)) (WSEI / FERSI / LPI) / (WSEIAME/ FERIAME/ LPIAME)* 1000) (- N) (OS# / GDP#) / (OS#AME / GDP#AME)* 1000, (- N) (FERSI / (FERSI + FERSI.1) / 2) *1000)

E611

DIA

= F ((+N) GDPS, (- N) (OS# / GDP#) / (OS#AME / GDP#AME)*1000, (- N)(FERSI / (FERSI + FERSI.1) / 2))*1000)

E612

DIL

= F ((+N) GDPS, (- N) ((WSEI / FERSI / LPI) / (WSEIAME/ FERIAME / LPIAME)) *1000, (+N) ((OS# / GDP#) / (OS#AME / GDP#AME))*1000, (+N) DIA)

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Appendix A. (Continued) E613

DIL

= F ((+N) GDPS, (+N)((OS# / GDP#) / (OS#AME / GDP#AME)) *1000, (+N) FERIAME*1000, (+N) DIA )

E614

POINA

= F ((+N) GDPS, (+N) (ICAME / IC) * 1000, (+N) ((OS# / GDP#) / (OS#AME / GDP#AME))*1000, (- N)((1 / FERSI) / ((1 / FERSI+1 / FERSI.1) /2))*1000)

E615

POINL

= F ((+N) GDPS, (- N) (ICAME / IC)* 1000, (+N) SPI*1000)

E616

POINL )

= F ((+N) (GDP# / GDP#AME)*1000, (- N) (ICAME / IC)*1000, (+N) SPI*1000, (+N) FERIAME *1000)

E617

ICIIDIA

= F ((+N) DIAO.1)

E618

IDIIDIL

= F ((+N) DILO.1)

E619

ICIIPI

= F ((+N) (POINA.1+POINA.2)*ISEURO.1)

E620

IDIIPI

= F ((+N) (POINL.1+POINL.2)*IB.1)

E621

INCOMEC

= F ((+N) ICII)

E622

INCOMED

= F ((+N) IDII)

DEF

ICII

= ICIIDIA + ICIIPI

DEF

IDII

= IDIIDIL + IDIIPI

DEF

ETFOB

= ESMAT

DEF

MTFOB

= ESMAT

DEF

TB

= ETFOB – MTFOB

DEF

TBB

= EMFOB – MMFOB

DEF EMFOB = MMFOB * EMFOBD and MMFOBD should control the world total.

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Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

DEF

SC

= SCTPN + SCTR + SCOTH

DEF

SD

= SDTPN + SDTR + SDOTH

DEF SC = SD * SCD and SDD should control the world total. DEF INCOMEC = INCOMED *INCOMECD and INCOMEDD should control the world total. DEF

CBT

= TBB + SC – SD

DEF

CTC

= CTCGG@ + CTCOS@

DEF

CTD

= CTDGG@ + CTDOS@

DEF

CUT

= CTC – CTD

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

DEF DEF

CTC = CTD * CTCD and CTDD should control the world total CBP = CBT + INCOMEC – INCOMED + CUT

DEF

DIB

= DIL – DIA

DEF

POINB

= POINL – POINA

DEF

ESMAT

= E#MAT * PES

DEF

GDPS

= GDP / FEERSI

DEF

DIAO

= DIAO.1 + DIA + FADEDIA@

DEF

DILO

= DILO.1 + DIL+ FADEDIL@

+-----------------------------------------------------------+ 9. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE: (E700 – E799) +-----------------------------------------------------------+ > E700

ODA

= F ((+) GDPS)

E701

ODAB

= F ((+) ODA)

DEF

ODAM

= ODA - ODAB

E702

ODAMAT

= F ((+) ODAB)

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309

Appendix A. (Continued) DEF

ODABR

= ODAMAT)

E703

ODAMR

= F ((+) ODAM )

* If ODA MAT are not available, use the following E704 E704

ODABR

= F ((+) ODAB < SUM >)

DEF

ODAR

= ODABR + ODAMR

E705

ODATC

= F ((+) ODA)

E706

ODATCR

= F ((+) ODATC)

> E707

PFDIMAT

= F ((+) PFDI)

DEF

PFDIR

= PFDIMAT

E708

PFDI

= F ((+N) DIA)

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

* If PFDI MAT are not available, use the following E709 E709

PFDIR

= F ((+N) PFDI)

DEF

PFDIO

= PFDIO.1 + PFDI - FADEPIA@

DEF

PFDIL

= PFDIL.1 + PFDIR - FADEPIL@

DEF

FCI

= ODABR + ODAMR + PFDIR

>< for DME > - LONG - TERM DEBT < PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED (PPG)> E710

DISBOC

= F ((+N) ODAR)

E711

DISBPC

= F ((+N) NHI / FERSI, (-N) DSR.1, (-N) CBP, (-N) PFDIR.1)

E712

PREPOC

= F ((+N) DODOC.1)

E713

PREPPC

= F ((+N) DODPC.1, (-) DSR.1)

E714

IDEBTOC

= F ((+N) LIBOR)

E715

IDEBTPC

= F ((+N) ISEURO)

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Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

E716

INTOC

= F ((+) (DODOC.1 * IDEBTOC/100))

E717

INTPC

= F ((+) (DODPC.1 * IDEBTPC/100))

E718

DODOC

= F ((+) (DODOC.1 + DISBOC - PREPOC))

E719

DODPC

= F ((+) (DODPC.1 + DISBPC - PREPPC))

DEF

DISB

= DISBOC + DIBPC

DEF

PREP

= PREPOC + PREPPC

DEF

INT

= INTOC + INTPC

DEF

TDS

= TDSOC + TDSPC

DEF

TDSOC

= INTOC + PREPOC

DEF

TDSPC

= INTPC + PREPPC

DEF

DOD

= DODOC + DODPC

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

< PRIVATE NONGUARANTEED (PNG)> E720

DISBPNG

= F ((+N) NHI / FERSI, (-N) DSR.1, (-N) CBP, (-N) PFDIR.1)

E721

PREPPNG

= F ((+N) DODPNG.1, (-) DSR.1))

E722

IDEBTPN

= F ((+N) ISEURO)

E723

INTPNG

= F ((+N) DODPNG.1 * IDEBTPN/100)

E724

DODPNG

= F ((+N) (DODPNG.1 + DISBPNG - PREPPNG))

DEF

TDSPNG

= PREPPNG + INTPNG

< SHORT-TERM DEBT > E725

DODS

= F ((-N) SUMT2 (CBP.1), (-N) IMFCRE.1)

< USE OF IMF CREDIT > E726

IMFCRE

= F ((-N) CBP)

< TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT > DEF

EDT

= DOD + DODS + IMFCRE

< DEBT INDICATORS >

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Appendix A. (Continued) - PUBLIC DEF

DER

= DOD / (EMFOB + SC)

DEF

DGR

= DOD / GDPS

DEF

DSR

= TDS / (EMFOB + SC)

DEF

DERT

= EDT / (EMFOB + SC)

DEF

DGRT

= EDT / GDPS

DEF

DSRLT

= (TDS + TDSPNG) / (EMFOB + SC)

- TOTAL -

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

+--------------------------------------------------------------+ 10. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE: (E800-849) +--------------------------------------------------------------+

E800

FERSI

=F ((+N) PGDP.1/PGDP.1, (+N) FERSIAME.1, (+) FERSI.1)

E801

LOG (FERIEUR)

= F ((+N) LOG (PGDPEU.1 / PGDP.1), (- N) LOG (ESMATEA.1 /ESMATAE.1), (+N) LOG ((IC.1 / ICEU.1), (+) LOG (FERIEUR.1))

E802

DOT (FERSI )

= F ((+N) DOT (FERIEUR)

E803

LOG (FERSI )

E804 DEF

DOT (FERSI ) FERSI

= F ((+N) LOG (PGDP.1 / PGDP.1), (- N) LOG (ESMAT.1 /ESMAT.1), (+N) LOG ((IC.1 / IC.1), (+) LOG (FERIEUR)) = F (+N) DOT (FERIEUR)) (Before 2001) = (1+ DOT (FERIEUR))* FERSI.1 (After 2001)

E805

FERSI

= F ((+N) PE.1 / PE.1.1, (-N) CBP.1 / GDPS.1, (+N) FERIAME.1, (+) FERSI.1)

DEF

FERSI

= 1 US Dollar direct link type >

E806

FERSI

= F ((+N) PE.1 / PE.1, (+N) FERIAME.1, (+) FERSI.1)

DEF

FERS

= FERSI * FERS.1995

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312

Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

DEF

FEREURO

= FERIEUR* FEREURO.1995

DEF

FERE

= FERS / FEREURO

DEF

FERE

=EUROCR@ @ (After 2002)

DEF FERSI

= 1.00

DEF FERS

= $1.00

DEF TERRA

= PEO/3 + PEC/3 + PEGOLD/3

DEF TERRA.1995

= $1.00 (TERRA exchange rate per US dollar = TERRA 1.00 in 1995)

DEF TERRAS

= 1 / TERRA (TERRA exchange rate per US dollar)

DEF TERRASI

= TERRAS / TERRA.1995

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

> DEF

CPIAME

= WEIGHT (CPI, GDP#, )

DEF

CPIEU

= WEIGHT (CPI, GDP#, )

DEF

EGYRG

= ENGYR )

DEF

EMTFOB#

= ETFOB# + MTFOB#

DEF

ESMATEA

= ESMAT

DEF

ESMATAE

= ESMAT

DEF

FERIAME

= WEIGHT (FERSI, GDP#, )

DEF

FERIEUR

= WEIGHT (FERSI, GDP#, )

DEF

PESAME

= ETFOB / ETFOB#

DEF

GDP#AME

= GDP#

DEF

GDP#E

= GDP# * FERS.1995 / FEREURO.1995

DEF

GDP#EU

= GDP#

DEF

GDP#DGE

= GDP#

DEF

GDP# G

= GDP#< SUM>

DEF

GDP#N

= GDP# * FERS.1995 / NCUCR@ (GDP#N = GDP#)

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Appendix A. (Continued) DEF

GDP#PPP

= GDP# / FERS*FERSPPP.1995 (GDP#PPP = GDP#)

DEF

GDPE

= GDP * FERS.1995 / FEREURO

DEF

GDPN

= GDP * FERS.1995 / NCUCR@ (GDPN = GDP)

DEF

GDPS

= GDP / FERSI (GDPS = GDP)

DEF

GDPSPPP

= GDPS / FERS* FERSPPP.1995 (GDPSPPP = GDPS)

DEF

GDPSG

= GDPS

DEF

ICAME

= WEIGHT (IC, GDP#, )

DEF

ICEU

= WEIGHT (IC, GDP#, )

DEF

IBEU

= WEIGHT (IB, GDP#, )

DEF

INEU

= WEIGHT (IN, GDP#, )

DEF

LPIAME

= GDPP# / CEMP

DEF

NPG

= NP

DEF

NPAME

= NP

DEF

NPDGE

= NP

DEF

OILG

= OIL

DEF

OS#AME

= OS#

DEF

PGDPEU

= WEIGHT (PGDP, GDP#, )

DEF

WSEIAME

= WEIGHT (WSEI, GDP#, )

Note: NCU is national currency unit. NCU is set at Millions of US dollars = 1. If a given country’s currency unit is Billions, NCU should be 1000. +------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 11. DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS: (E850 – E869) +------------------------------------------------------------------------+

E850

LOG (MPSED)

= F ((-N) LOG (RICH20))

E851

LOG (POOR20)

= F ((- N) LOG (RICH20.1), (+N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1))

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Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

E852

LOG (RICH20)

= F (+ N) LOG (MPSED.1), (- N) LOG (IPCIDG.1)

DEF

IPCIDG

= (GDP# / NP) / (GDP#G / NPG)

DEF

IPCIDA

= (GDP# / NP) / (GDP#AME/ NPAME

DEF

IPCIDD

= (GDP# / NP) / (GDP#DGE/ NPDGE)

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

> II DEVI Failures in Development II-1

GDP#DOT

Poor Economic Growth

II-2

PCIDOT

Stagnant Per Capita Income Growth

II-3

IPCIDG

International Per Capita Income Disparities

II-4

CPIDOT

High Domestic Prices

II-5

UNEMPR

High Unemployment Rate

II-6

CBPGDP

CBP TO GDPS

II-7

FERSIDOT

Depreciated Foreign Exchange Rate

II-8

DSR

High Debt Service Ratio

II-9

DILGDP

Decreased Capital Inflow to GDPS

II-10

CAPMGDP

Capacity to imports to GDP#

II-11

FOODPOP

Food Population Imbalance

II-12

MPSED

Mass Poverty

*************************************** VI: PEACE AND SECURITY: (E870 – E879) *************************************** E870

LOG (POLCNFL)

= F ((+N) LOG (MPSED), (+N) LOG (UNEMP))

E871

LOG (AOROL)

= F ((+N) OG (POLCNFL), (+N) LOG (UNEMP))

E872

LOG (INSURGE)

= F ((+N) LOG (AOROL.1), (+N) LOG (UNEMP.1))

E873

LOG (INTWAR)

= F ((+N) LOG (INSURGE), (+) LOG (IOED), (+) LOG (EDED@), (+) LOG (ROED@))

E874

LOG (INTLWAR)

= F ((+) LOG (INTWAR), (+) LOG (MILAID@))

Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Trade Policy in the Globalizing World Appendix A. (Continued) > III

PSI

Absence of Peace and Security

III-1

POLCNFL

Political Conflicts and Violence

III-2

AOROL

Absence of Rule of Law

III-3

GDFGDP

Military Expenditures to GDP

III-4

INSURGEN

Insurgency

III-5

INTWAR

Internal War

III-6

INTLWAR

International Conflicts and War

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

************************************* VII: HUMAN RIGHTS: (E880 – E889) ************************************* E880

LOG (BHENEED)

= F ((+N) LOG (GSW# / GDP#), (+N) LOG (GHC#/GDP#), (+N) LOG (IFEEXP))

E881

LOG (IOED)

= F ((+N) LOG (POLCNFL))

E882

LOG (AHLCR)

= F ((+N) LOG (GEDU# / GDP#))

E883

LOG (DPNPR)

E884

LOG (DPRNPR)

= F ((-N) LOG (ENVI), (-N) LOG (DEVI), (-N) LOG (PSI), (-N) LOG (HRI), (+ N) LOG (DP.1 / NP .1)) = F ((+N) LOG (IPCIDG.1), (-N) LOG (UNEMP.1))

DEF

DP

= DPNPR * NP

DEF

DPR

= DPRNPR * NP

DEF

CLDP

= CLDP.1 + DP - DDP@

> IV

VHRI

Violation of Human Rights

IV-1

BHENEED

Basic Human Existence Needs

IV-2

IOED

Ideology Oppression

IV-3

EDED

Ethnic Differentiation

IV-4

ROED

Religious Oppression

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316

Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

IV-5

GEDGDP

Educational Expenditures to GDP

IV-6

GSWGDP

Social Security Expenditures to GDP

IV-7

AHLCR

Human and Cultural Rights

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

***************************************** * VIII: HEALTH CARE (E900 – E919) ****************************************** E900

LOG (HLTH)

= F ((+N) LOG (GH#. 1 GDP#. 1), (+N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1))

E901

LOG (ACCH)

= F ((+N) LOG (GH#. 1 /NP.1), (+N) LOG (GSW#. 1 / GDP#. 1))

E902

LOG (H2OSAFE)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (-N) LOG (WATPOL.1))

E903

LOG (SAFERU)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (-N) LOG (WATPOL.1))

E904

LOG (PHYS)

= F ((+N) LOG (HLTH.1), (+N) LOG (GH#. 1 / GDP#. 1))

E905

LOG (NURS)

= F ((+N) LOG (PHYS.1), (+N) LOG (GH#. 1+ GSW#. 1) /GDP#. 1, (+N) LOG (NPO65.1 / NP.1))

E906

LOG (BEDS)

= F ((+N) LOG (NURS.1), (+N) LOG (GH#. 1 + GSW#. 1) /GDP#. 1, (+N) LOG (NPO65.1 / NP.1))

E907

LOG (BRTC)

= F ((+N) LOG (NURS.1 / NATY.1), (+N) LOG (HLTH.1))

E908

LOG (BRTW)

= F ((- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (- N) LOG (GH#. 1/ GDP#. 1))

E909

LOG (MMRT)

= F ((- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (- N) LOG (GH#. 1/ GDP#. 1))

E910

LOG (MALN)

= F ((- N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (- N) LOG (GH#. 1/ GDP#. 11))

E911

LOG (ITKPROT)

= F ((+ N) LOG (HLTH))

E912

LOG (IMMIDPT)

= F ((+ N) LOG (HLTH))

E913

LOG (IMMMEAS)

= F ((+ N) LOG (HLTH))

E914

LOG (ORTH)

= F ((+ N) LOG (HLTH))

E915

LOG (TEOHR)

= F ((+ N) LOG (GDP#. 1 / NP.1), (+ N) LOG (GH#. 1/ GDP#. 1))

E916

LOG (PEOHR)

= F ((+N) LOG (GH#. 1 / GDP#. 1))

DEF

TEOHPC

= (TEOH# / NP) * 1000

DEF

PEOHPC

= (PEOH# /NP) * 1000

Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Trade Policy in the Globalizing World Appendix A. (Continued) DEF

TEOH#

= TEOHR*GDP#

DEF

PEOH#

= PEOHR*GDP#

DEF

TEOH

= TEOH# * PGDP

DEF

PEOH

= PEOH# *PGDP

**************************************************************** * IX: DIGITAL DIVIDE (INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY): (E920 – E939) ****************************************************************

E920

LOG (PCPTP)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP# / NP), (+N) LOG (EDUA# / NP), (+N) LOG (TECHA# / NP), (+N) LOG (NHI# / GDP#))

E921

(LOG (TELMPTP)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP# / NP), (+N) LOG (EDUA# / NP), (+N) LOG(TECHA#/NP),(+N)LOG(NHI#/GDP#.1))

E922

LLOG (INTSPTP)

= F ((+N) LOG (PCPTP), (+N) LOG (EDUA# / NP),

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

(+N) LOG(TECHA#/NP),(+N)LOG(NHI#/GDP#.1)) E923

LOG (INTHPTP)

= F ((+N) LOG (INTSPTP), (+N) LOG (NHI#. 1 / GDP# .1))

E924

LOG (LLPTP)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP# / NP), (+N) LOG (TECHA# / NP), (+N) LOG (NHI# / GDP#), (+N) LOG (PCPTP.1))

E925

LOG (MTELPTP)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP# / NP), (+N) LOG (EDUA# / NP) (+N) LOG (TECHA# / NP), (+N) LOG (NHI# / GDP#), (+N) LOG (PCPTP.1))

E926

LOG (TVSPTP)

= F ((+N) LOG (GDP# / NP), (+N) LOG (EDUA# / NP), (+N) LOG (TECHA# / NP, (+N) LOG (NHI# / GDP#))

>

DEF

EDUA#PC

= EDUA# / NP

DEF

TECA#PC

= TECHA# / NP

DEF

GSW#PC

= GSW# / NP

DEF

GH#PC

= GH# / NP

DEF

GDP# PPC

= GDP#PPP / NP

DEF

IPCIDP

= (GDP#PPP / NP) / GDP#PPP / NP

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318

Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

DEF

CEMPR

= (CEMP / LCLF)*100

DEF

LIFEEXP

= (NPM/NP)*LIFEXPM + (NPF/NP)*LIFEXPF

*Important Note; We have made reservations for equations; E940-E999.They may be used for extension of sub-systems. +++ GLOSARY NOTES +++ @ # .1 (.1995 * (+) (-) (N) C MAT LOG DOT DOT2

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

SUMJ SUMI SUMT5

AME DGE DME EIT ANIES BRICS OILEXP OECD G5 G7 G20 EU EU15 EURO ASEAN EAC NAFTA VEC WRD G D

: EXOGENOUS VARIABLE (Ex. GEITI@) : VARIABLES AT CONSTANT PRICES (Ex. GDP#) : ONE-YEAR TIME LAG (EX. GDP#. 1) : VALUE IN BASE YEAR OF 1995 (Ex. GDP#. 1995) : MULTIPLY (Ex. GDP = GDP#*PGDP : PLUS SIGN CONDITIONS OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS : MINUS SIGN CONDITIONS OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS : NEGLECTS “t” STATISTICS OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS : VARIABLE DERIVED FROM CROSS-COUNTRY DATA (Ex. GDPAGR#C) : MATRIX VARIABLE (Ex. E#MAT, ESMAT) : NATURAL LOGARITHM : PERCENTAGE CHANGES OF A VARIABLE Ex. DOT (GDP) : PERCENTAGE CHANGES OF DEVIDED VARIABLES (as WSEI / LPI) Ex. DOT2 (WSEI, LPI) : SUMMATION OF ROW ELEMENTS IN MATRIX : SUMMATION OF COLUMN ELEMENTS IN MATRIX : SUMMATION OVER FIVE YEARS (Ex. SUMT5 (NHI#) = NHI#+NHI#. 1…+NHI#. 4) : SUMMATION OF WORLD TOTAL (Ex. NPG = NP) : SUMMATION OF AME REGION : SUMMATION OF DME REGION : DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES : DEVELOPING ECONOMIES : DGE + PME : ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION : ASIAN NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZING ECONOMIES : BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA , CHINA : OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES : OECD MEMBER COUNTRIES : THE MAJOR FIVE COUNTRIES : THE MAJOR SEVEN COUNTRIES : THE MAJOR TWENTY COUNTRIES : EU MEMBER COUNTRIES : EU FIFTEEN MEMBER COUNTRIES : EURO AREA : ASEAN MEMBER COUNTRIES : EAST ASIAN COMMUNITY COUNTRIES : NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AREA : VEHICLE EXPORTING COUNTRIES TO CHINA : WORLD : GLOBAL AGGREGATE (Ex. , NPG, CO2 G) : DEVIATIONS FROM ACTUAL VALUES (Ex. FERSID)

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World Appendix A. (Continued) F ()

: FUZZY FUNCTION WHERE RELATED VARIABLES HAVE “FLUCTUATION”

** EXPLANATORY NOTES ** - FLAG.1 M N V S

: MATRIX : SEMI-MATRIX : VECTOR : SCALAR

- FLAG.2 T N

: TIME SERIES DATA : NON-TIME SERIES DATA

- FLAG.3 D X

: ENDOGENOUS VARIABLE : EXOGENOUS VARIABLE

- FLAG.4 F R P S

: FLOW : RATIO : INDEX : STOCK

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

- UNIT – MD MD95 MDS ME ME95 MN BN95 95 =1 % TP TD95/P MT MTOE TOE MTCE TCE TT MM/S HA SM POINT NU NCU PPM PH

: MILLIONS OF 1995 US DOLLARS AT CURRENT PRICES (NCU PRICES) : MILLIONS OF 1995 US DOLLARS AT 1995 CONSTANT PRICES : MILLIONS OF CURRENT US DOLLARS : MILLIONS OF EURO CURRENCY : MILLIONS OF 1995 EURO : MILLIONS OF NATIONAL CURRENCY : BILLIONS OF NATIONAL CURRENCY AT 1995 PRICES : INDEX NUMBER BASED 1995 : PERCENTAGE : THOUSANDS OF PERSONS : THOUSANDS OF 1995 US DOLLARS PER PERSON : METRIC TON : METRIC TON OIL EQUIVALENT : TON OIL EQUIVALEEENT : METRIC TON CARBON EQUIVALENT : TON CARBON EQUIVALENT : THOUSAND TON : MM PER SQUARE : HECTARE : SQUARE METER : POINTS BY EXPERT JUDGMENT (Ex. 0-100) : NO UNIT : NATIONAL OR REGIONAL CURRENCY UNIT (Ex US DOLLAR, EURO) : CO2 PPM : ACID RAIN

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320

Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued)

$/B

: DOLLAR / BARREL

- DATA SOURCE A) CD-ROM, Floppy disk and MT IMF IMF IMF IMF OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD UN UN WORLD BANK

: DIRECTION OF TRADE : INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS : BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS : GOVERNMENT FINANCE STATISTICS : NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS OF OECD MEMBER COUNTRIES : LABOUR MARKET DATA BASE OF OECD COUNTRIES : FLOWS AND STOCKS OF FIXED CAPITAL OF OECD COUNTRIES : DAC AID PERFORMANCE : GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF FINANCIAL FLOWS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES : ENERGY STATISTICS OF OECD MEMBER COUNTRIES : ENERGY BALANCES AND ENERGY STATISTICS OF NONOECD COUNTRIES : ENERGY PRICES AND TAXESTATISTICS : MAIN SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY INDICATORS : HEALTH DATA : MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS : POPULATION STATISTICS : YEARBOOK OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS : WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

B) PUBLICATION ILO UN UNCTAD WHO OTHERS

: YEARBOOK OF LABOUR STATISTICS : MONTHLY BULLETIN OF STATISTICS : WORLD DEVELOPMENT AND TRADE REPORT : THE WORLD HEALTH REPORT : OFFICIAL STATISTICS IN EACH COUNTRY

========================= VARIABLE LIST ========================= VARIABLE:

FLAG:

UNIT:

NOTES:

ACCH ACRAIN AETR

VTDR VTDF VTDR

% PH CE/OE

ALTEGY ALTEGYR ALTHTEC

VTDF VTDR VTDF

MTOE NU MTOE

ACCESS TO LOCAL HEALTH CARE (% OF NP) ACID RAINFALL MEASURED BY ACID ZONE pH. ALTERNATIVE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY RATE IN TERMS OF CO2 EFFICIENCY ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SUPPLY (METRIC TON) ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RATIO TO TOTAL ENERGY ALTERNATIVE HI-TECHNOLOGYON ENERGY USE (COSMIC ENERGY USE ON SUPER CONDUCTOR and NUCLEAR FUSION AT NORMAL TEMPERATURE)

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321

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Appendix A. (Continued) AHLCR

VTDF

POINT

AIRPOL APNHI# AOROL ARABLE ARABLER BATT BEDS BBP

VTDS VTDF VTDF VTDS VTDR VTDF VTDF VTDF

POINT MD90 POINT HA % MTOE NO MDS

BHENEED BIOMASS BIOTEC@ BIRTHR BRTC BRTW CAE CAE# CALTIVA CAPM#

VTDF VTVF VTXF VTDR VTDR VTDR VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF

POINT MT MTCE /TH % % MD MD95 HA MD90

CBP

VTDF

MDS

CBPGDP CBT

VTDR VTDF

% MDS

CCG CEMP CEMPF CEMPM CEMPR CFC@ CG

VTDF VTDS VTDS VTDS VTDF VTXF VTDF

MD TP TP TP % MT MD

CG#

VTDF

MD95

CLDP COAL COMPE

VTDS VTDF VTDF

TP MTOE MD

COMPE#

VTDF

MD95

CO2 CO2EMN CO2ETF CO2ESR CO2G CO2PC CO2PPMG

VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF STDF VTDF STDF

MTCE MTCE RATIO % MTCE TCE PPM

ADHERENCE TO HUMAN LIFE and CULTURAL RIGHTS AIR POLLUTION (SO2, NOX, ETC.) ANTIPOLLUTION INVESTMENT ABSENCE OF RULE OF LAW ARABLELAND ARABLELAND; ANNUAL INCREASE RATE BATTERY HOSPITAL BEDS BASIC BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AT CURRENT US DOLLARS BASIC HUMAN EXISTENCE NEEDS BIOMASS UTILIZATION BIOTECHNOLOGY FOR REDUCING CO2 BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND POPULATION) BIRTHS ATTENDED BY HEALTH PERSONNEL BABIES WITH BIRTHWEIGHT BELOW 2500 GRAMS GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE (AT CONST.) CULTIVATED LAND CAPACITY TO IMPORT AT CONSTANT PRICES CURRENT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AT CURRENT US DOLLARS CURRENT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS TO GDP CURRENT BALANCE OF TRADE AT CURRENT US DOLLARS CLAIMS ON GOVERNMENT SECTOR, NET CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT: FEMALE CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT: MALE CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT RATE CFC EMISSION GOVERNMENT FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE AT CURRENT PRICES GOVERNMENT FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE AT CONSTANT PRICES CURRENT LEVEL OF DISPLACED PERSONS COAL REQUIREMENT COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES AT CURRENT PRICES COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES AT CONSTANT PRICES CO2 EMISSION IN TERMS OMTCE CO2 EMISSION FROM FOSSIL ENERGY USE CO2 EMISSION TECHNOLOGY FACTOR CO2 EMISSION STABILIZATION RATE GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN TERMS OF MTCE CO2 EMISSION PER CAPITA GLOBAL CO2 IN TERMS OF PPM (MAUNA LOA)

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Appendix A. (Continued) CP

VTDF

MD

CP#

VTDF

MD95

CP#PC

VTDF

TD95/P

CPI CPIAME CPIEU CPIDOT CPS CQE

VTDP STDP STDP VTDR VTDF VTDF

95=1 95=1 95=1 % MD MD

CQE#

VTDF

MD95

CUT CTAXRO@ CTAXRC@ CTAXRG@ CTC CTCGG@ CTCOS@ CTD CTDGG@ CTDOS@ CTR@ CTRV@

VTDF VTXF VTXF VTXF VTDF VTXF VTXF VTXF VTXF VTXF VTXR VTXR

MD % % % MD MD MD MD MD MD NU NU

CUE CULTIVAT CUR DDP DEATHR DEFORES DEFORTR DER DERT DESERT DEVDP DEVI DFAWC@

VTDF VTDS VTDR VTDF VTDR VTDF VTDR VTDR VTDR VTDR VTDS VTDF VTXF

MD HA NU TP /TH SM % NU NU NU TP POINT NU

DFC

VTDF

MD

DFOODP DFI

VTDF VTDF

MT MD

DFI#

VTDF

MD95

DGR DGRT

VTDR VTDR

NU NU

PRIVATE FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE AT CURRENT PRICES PRIVATE FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE AT CONSTANT PRICES PRIVATE FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE AT CONSTANT PRICES (PER CAPITA) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AVERAGE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX OF AMES AVERAGE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX OF EU INCREASING RATE OF DOMESTIC PRICE CLAIMS ON PRIVATE SECTOR, NET CORPORATE AND QUASI-CORPORATE ENTERPRISES’ OPERATING SURPLUS CORPORATE AND QUASI-CORPORATE ENTERPRISES’ OPERATING SURPLUS (AT CONST.) CURRENT TRANSFERS CARBON TAX RATE ON OIL CARBON TAX RATE ON COAL CARBON TAX RATE ON GAS CURRENT TRANFERS: CREDIT CREDIT: GENERAL GOVERNMENT CREDIT: OTHER SECTORS CURRENT TRANFERS: DEBIT DEBIT: GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBIT: OTHER SECTORS CUSTOMS TARIFF RATE CUSTOMS TARIFF RATE FOR VEHICLE EXPORTING COUNTRIES TO CHINA GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE CULTIVATED LAND CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE NUMBER OF DISGUISED DISPLACED PERSONS DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND POPULATION) DEFORESTATION, NET DEFORESTATION RATE, NET PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT / EXPORT RATIO TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT / EXPORT RATIO DESERTIFICATION ECONOMICALLY DISPLACED PERSONS INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DEGREE AND FREQUENCY IN ABNORMAL WEATHER CONDITION CONSUMPTION OF FIXED CAPITAL AT CURRENT PRICES DOMESTIC FOODS PRODUCTION DOMESTIC FACTOR INCOMES AT CURRENT PRICES DOMESTIC FACTOR INCOMES AT CONSTANT PRICES PUBLIC TOTAL DEBT / GDPS RATIO TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT / GDPS RATIO

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World

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Appendix A. (Continued) DIA

VTDF

MDS

DIAO

VTDS

MDS

DIB

VTDF

MDS

DIL

VTDF

MDS

DILGDP DILO

VTDR VTDS

% MDS

DISB

VTDF

MDS

DISBOC

VTDF

MDS

DISBPC

VTDF

MDS

DISBPNG

VTDF

MDS

DNHC

VTDF

MD

DNHC#

VTDF

MD95

DOD

VTDS

MDS

DODOC

VTDS

MDS

DODPC

VTDS

MDS

DODPNG

VTDS

MDS

DP DPNPR DPR DPRNPR DROUGHT DSR DSRLT

VTDS VTDF DTDF VTDF VTDF VTDR VTDR

TP % TP % POINT NU NU

E

VTDF

MD

E#

VTDF

MD95

E#AGR ECUR

VTDF VTDR

ECURI E#MAT

VTDP MTDF

MD95 NCU/EC U 95=1 MD95

ECODP

VTDF

TP

PRIVATE DIRECT INVESTMENT ABROAD AT CURRENT US DOLLARS PRIVATE DIRECT INVESTMENT ABROAD: OUTSTANDING PRIVATE DIRECT INVESTMENT, BALANCE AT CURRENT US DOLLARS PRIVATE DIRECT INVESTMENT IN COUNTRY AT CURRENT DOLLARS CAPITA INFLOW TO GDP PRIVATE DIRECT INVESTMENT IN COUNTRY: OUTSTANDING DISBURSEMENTS (LONG-TERM DEBT) TOTAL ALL CREDITORS DISBURSEMENTS (LONG-TERM DEBT) TOTAL OFFICIAL CREDITORS DISBURSEMENTS (LONG-TERM DEBT) TOTAL PRIVATE CREDITORS DISBURSEMENTS (LONG-TERM DEBT) TOTAL PRIVATE CREDITORS PRIVATE NONGUARANTEED DEBT DEPRECIATION OF NON-HOUSING CAPITAL AT CURRENT PRICES DEPRECIATION OF NON-HOUSING CAPITAL AT CONSTANT PRICES PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING (LONG-TERM) TOTAL ALL CREDITORS PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING (LONG-TERM) OFFICIAL CREDITORS PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING (LONG-TERM) PRIVATE CREDITORS PRIVATE DEBT OUTSTANDING (LONG-TERM) NON-GURANTEED DISPLACED PERSONS RATIO OF DP TO TOTAL POPULATION DISPLACED PERSONS, RECEIVED RATIO OF DPR TO TOTAL POPULATION FREQUENCY OF DROUGHT PUBLIC TOTAL DEBT SERVICE RATIO EXTERNAL DEBT TOTAL (LONG-TERM) DEBT SERVICE RATIO EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES AT CONSTANT PRICES EXPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES EXCHANGE RATE OF NATIONAL CURRENCY UNIT PER ECU INDEX OF ECUR EXPORTS (MERCHANDISE, FOB) FROM REGION (I) TO REGION (J) AT CONSTANT PRICES ECOLOGICAL DISPLACED PERSONS

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Appendix A. (Continued) EDED@

VTXF

POINT

EDUA# EDUA#PC EGS

VTDS VTDF VTDF

MD95 TD95/P MD

EMFOB

VTDF

MDS

EMIGRAN@ EMTFOB# ENGYR

VTXF VTDF VTDF

TP MD95 MTOE

ENGYRG

VTDF

MTOE

ENGYS

VTDF

MTOE

ENVI EPC EROSION ESMAT

VTDF VTDF VTDF MTDF

POINT TOE SM MDS

ESMATAE ESMATEA ESR

VTDR VTDR VTDR

MDS MDS %

ESWARM

VTDF

GEGREE

ESWARMG

STDF

DEGREE

ETFOB

VTDF

MDS

ETFOB#

VTDF

MDS

EUROCR@

VCXR

EXFOOD# EXTIM@ FADEDIA@ FADEDIL@ FADEPIA@

VTVF VTXF VTXF VTXF VTXF

NCU/EU RO MD95 MT MDS MDS MDS

FADEPIL@ FCI

VTXF VTDF

MT MDS

FERE

VTDR

FEREURO

STDF

NCU/EU RO ECU/US$

FEERSI

VTDP

95 =1

ETHNIC DIFFERENTIATION AND EXTERNAL DISMISSION EDUCATIONAL ASSETS AT CONSTANT PRICES EDUCATIONAL ASSETS (PER CAPITA) GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON GOODS AND SERVICES MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AT CURRENT US DOLLARS (BOP BASE) NUMBER OF EMIGRANTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (METRIC TON OIL EQUIVALENT) WORLD ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (METRIC TON OIL EQUIVALENT) TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY (METRIC TON OIL EQUIVALENT) INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENT INDICATOR ENERGY REQUIREMENTS PER CAPITA EROSION EXPORTS (MERCHANDISE, FOB) FROM REGION (I) TO REGION (J) AT CURRENT US DOLLARS EXPORTS FROM USA TO EU EXPORTS FROM EU TO USA ENERGY SAVINGS RATE TO GDP# IN TERMS OF ENERGY INTENSITY AVERAGE EARTH SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN EACH REGION AVERAGE EARTH SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (FOB) AT CURRENT US DOLLARS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (FOB) AT CONSTANT US DOLLARS EURO CURRENCY COVERSION RATES AMONG EU11 COUNTRIES EXPORTS OF FOODS EXPORT OF TIMBER FADEOUT OF DIA FADEOUT OF DIL FADEOUT OF PRIVATE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FADEOUT OF PFDI IN HOST COUNTRIES FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOW TO DGE AT CURRENT US DOLLARS EXCHANGE RATE PER EURO EURO CURRENCY’S EXCHANGE RATE PER US DOLLAR EFFECTIVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE INDEX OF US DOLLAR

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Appendix A. (Continued) FERIAME

STDP

95 =1

FERISDR FERIEUR

STDP STDP

95 =1 95 =1

FERS

VTDR

FERSI

VTDP

NCU / US$ 95 =1

FERSIDOT

VTDF

%

FERSPPP

VTDF

FLOOD FOODAID FOODPOP FOODSS FOSSIL

VTXF VTXF VTDF VTDR VTDF

PPP / FERS NCU MT MT/TP % MTOE

FOREST FRESTTC FPROPCI GAS GBPREP GBR GBRGE GCE GCE#

VTDS VTDF VTDP VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDR VTDF VTDF

SM MDS 95 =1 MTOE MD MD % MD MD95

GDF GDF#

VTDF VTDF

MD MD95

GDFGDP GDOS

VTDR VTDF

% MD

GDOS#

VTDF

GDO GDOGDP GDP

VTDS VTDR VTDF

GDPE

VTDF

GDPN

VTDF

GDPS

VTDF

GDPSPPP

VTDF

AME’S WEIGHTED AVERAGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE INDEX PER US DOLLAR SDR RATE INDEX EURO CURRENCY’S EXCHANGE RATE INDEX PER US DOLLAR FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE PER US DOLLAR FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE INDEX PER US DOLLAR PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN US DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE INDEX FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE PER US DOLLAR ADJUSTMENT RATE BY PPP FREQUENCY OF FLOODS FOOD AID (METRIC TONS) FOOD-POPULATION IMBALANCE RATIO OF FOOD SELF-SUPPLY FOSSIL ENERGY IN METRIC TONS (OIL EQUIVALENT) FOREST ZONE TECHNICAL COOPERATION FOR FORESTATION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA AT MT NATURAL GAS REQUIREMENT GOVERNMENT BONDS PRINCIPAL REPAYMENT NEW ISSUES OF GOVERNMENT BONDS GBR/GE RATIO GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE (AT CONST>) GOVERNMENT DEFENSE EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT DEFENSE EXPENDITURE (AT CONST>)

MILITARY EXPENDITURES TO GDP# CURRENT GOVERNMENT DEFICIT (-) OR SURPLUS (+) MD95 CURRENT GOVERNMENT DEFICIT (-) OR SURPLUS (+) MD CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT OUTSTANDING % GDO/GDP RATIO MD GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES ME GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES (EURO CURRENCY UNIT) MN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES (NATIONAL CURRENCY UNIT) MDS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS AT CURRENT US DOLLARS MDS/PPP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS AT CURRENT US DOLLARS ADJUSTED BY PPP (PARCHASING PWER PARITY)

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Appendix A. (Continued) GDPSG

VTDF

MDS

GDP#

VTDF

MD95

GDP#DOT GDP#AME

VTDF STDF

% MD95

GDP#E

VTDF

ME95

GDP#EU

STDF

MD95

GDP#DGE

STDF

MD95

GDP#G

STSF

MD95

GDP#N

VTDF

MN95

GDP#PPP

VTDF

GDP#PPC

VTDF

MD95/ PPP95 TD95/P

GDPAGR# GDPAG#C GDPIND#

VTDF SCDF VTDF

MD95 MD95 MD95

GDPIN#C GDPMF#

SCDF VTDF

MD95 MD95

GDPMF#C GDPSER#

SCDF VTDF

MD95 MD95

GDPP#

VTDF

MD95

GDS

VTDF

MD

GDS#

VTDF

MD95

GE

VTDF

MD

GE#

VTDF

MD95

GEDU

VTDF

MD

GEDU#

VTDF

MD95

GEDUGDP GEITI@

VTDR VTXF

% MD

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS OF THE WORLD AT CURRENT US DOLLARS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS OF AME REGION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES (EURO CURRENCY UNIT) TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS OF EU TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS OF DGE REGION TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS OF THE WORLD GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT MARKET PRICES (NATIONAL CURRENCY UNIT) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT MARKET PRICES ADJUSTED BY PPP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT MARKET PRICES ADJUSTED BY PPP (PER CAPITA) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY AGRICULTURE RATIO OF AGRICULTURE TO GDP# GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY RATIO OF INDUSTRY TO GDP# GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES RATIO OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY TO GDP# GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SERVICE AND OTHERS PRODUCTION-ORIENTED GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES (POTENTIAL GDP#) DISCOUNT AND INTEREST ON GOVERNMENT BONDS AT CURRENT PRICES DISCOUNT AND INTEREST ON GOVERNMENT BONDS AT CONSTANT PRICES GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE and LENDING MINUS REPAYMENT AT CURRENT PRICES GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE and LENDING MINUS REPAYMENT AT CONSTANT PRICES GOVERNMENT EDUCATION EXPENDITURE AT CURRENT PRICES GOVERNMENT EDUCATION EXPENDITURE AT CONSTANT PRICES EDUCATIONAL EXPENDITURES TO GDP# GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT

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Appendix A. (Continued) GEOP

VTDF

MD

GEOP#

VTDF

MD95

GES

VTDF

MD

GES#

VTDF

MD95

GEST

VTDF

MD

GEVS

VTDF

MD

GFCF

VTDF

MD

GFCF#

VTDF

MD95

GFR

VTDF

GGO

VTDF

Per 1000w MD

GGO#

VTDF

MD95

GH GH#

VTDF VTDF

MD MD95

GH#PC

VTDF

TD /P

GHC

VTDF

MD

GHC#

VTDF

MD95

GITI

VTDF

MD

GITI#

VTDF

MD95

GIP

VTDF

MD

GIP#

VTDF

MD95

GLMR@ GLMR#@

VTXF VTXF

MD MD95

GLPF

VTDF

MD

GPS

VTDF

MD

GPS#

VTDF

MD95

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON OTHER PURPOSES GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON OTHER PURPOSES (CONST.) GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON ECONOMIC SERVICES GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON ECONOMIC SERVICES (CONST.) GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON VETERANS SERVICES GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION AT CURRENT PRICES GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION AT CONSTANT PRICES GENERAL FERTILITY RATE GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATING SURPLUS AT CURRENT PRICES GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATING SURPLUS AT CONSTANT PRICES GOVERNMENT HEALTH EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT HEALTH EXPENDITURE AT CONSTANT PRICES GOVERNMENT HEALTH EXPENDITURE AT CONSTANT PRICES (PER CAPITA) GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING AND COMMUNITY GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING AND COMMUNITY (CONST.) GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT (COST.) GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON INTEREST PAYMENTS GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON INTEREST PAYMENTS (CONST.) GOVERNMENT LENDING MINUS REPAYMENT GOVERNMENT LENDING MINUS REPAYMENT (CONST.) GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON LOCAL PUBLIC FINANCES GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON GENERAL PUBLIC SERVICES GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON GENERAL PUBLIC SERVICES (CONST.)

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Appendix A. (Continued) GPW

VTDF

MD

GR

VTDF

MD

GR#

VTDF

MD95

GRANT@ GRANT#@ GRR

VTXF VTXF VTDF

GSS

VTDF

MD MD95 Per woman MD

GSS#

VTDF

MD95

GSW

VTDF

MD

GSW#

VTDF

MD95

GSW#PC

VTDF

TD95/P

GSWGDP GTE GTE# H2OSAFE HPI HI HI# HLTH HOW HRDP HRI HYDRO IB IBEU

VTDR VTDF VTDF VTDR VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDR VTDR VTDS VTDF VTDF VTDR STDR

% MD MD95 % MD MD MD95 % HOURS TP POINT MTOE % %

IC ICC ICEU

VTDR VTDR STDR

% % %

ICII

VTDF

MDS

ICIIDIA ICIIPI IDII

VTDF VTDF VTDF

MDS MDS MDS

IDIIDIA IDIIPI IDEBTOC

VTDF VTDF VTDR

MDS MDS %

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON PUBLIC WORKS GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND GRANT AT CURRENT PRICES GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND GRANT AT CONSTANT PRICES GRANT REVENUE OF GOVERNMENT GRANT REVENUE OF GOVERNMENT (CONST.) GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON OTHER COMMUNITY SERVICES GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON OTHER COMMUNITY SERVICES (CONST.) GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON SOCIAL SECURITY and WELFARE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON SOCIAL SECURITY and WELFARE AT CONSTANT PRICES GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON SOCIAL SECURITY and WELFARE AT CONSTANT PRICES (PER CAPITA) SOCIAL SECURITY EXPENDITURES TO GDP# GOVERNMENT TOTAL EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT TOTAL EXPENDITURE (AT CONST.) ACCESS TO SAFE WATER, TOTAL, % OF NP HOUSEHOLD’S PROPERTY INCOME HOUSING INVESTMENT AT CURRENT PRICES HOUSING INVESTMENT AT CONSTANT PRICES HEALTH EXPENDITURES AS % OF GDP# HOURS OF WORK (ANNUAL AVERAGE) HUMAN RIGHT DISPLACED PERSONS INTEGRATED HUMAN RIGHT INDICATORS HYDRO ELECTRIC GENERATION GOVERNMENT LONG TERM BOND YIELD WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF EU GOVERNMENT LONG-TERM BOND YIELD CALL MONEY RATE OR FEDERAL FUND RATE INTEREST RATE OF CONSUMERS CREDIT WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF CALL MONEY RATE OF EU INVESTMENT INCOME, CREDIT AT CURRENT US DOLLARS DIRECT INVESTMENT INCOME: CREDIT: PORTFOLIO INCOME: CREDIT INVESTMENT INCOME, DEBIT AT CURRENT US DOLLARS DIRECT INVESTMENT INCOME: CREDIT: PORTFOLIO INCOME: DEBIT RATE OF INTEREST PAID (LONG-TERM DEBT) OFFICIAL CREDITORS

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Appendix A. (Continued) IDEBTPC

VTDR

%

IDEBTPN

VTDR

%

IH IIS IIS# IMFOOD# IMMIDPT IMMMEAS IMPCERL IN INCOMEC INCOMED INEU INCDISTR INFRA#@ INSURGE INT

VTDR VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDR VTDR VTDF VTDR VTDR VTDR VTDR VTDR VTXS VTDF VTDF

% MD MD95 MD95 % % MT % MD MD % MD/TP MD95 TP MDS

INTLWAR INTWAR INTOC

VTDF VTDF VTDF

POINT POINT MDS

INTPC

VTDF

MDS

INTPNG

VTDF

MDS

INTSPTP INTHPTP IOED

VTDR VTDR VTDF

NO/ TP NO/TP POINT

IP IPCIDG

VTDR VTDR

% INDEX.

IPCIDA

VTDR

INDEX.

IPCIDD

VTDR

INDEX.

IPCIDP

VTDR

IPI IS IS# ISEURO ITD

VTDP VTDS VTDS STDR VTDR

INDEX WORD= 100 95=1 MD MD95 % %

RATE OF INTEREST PAID (LONG-TERM DEBT) PRIVATE CREDITORS AVERAGE RATE OF INTEREST PAID (PRIVATE NONGUARANTEED) HOUSING LOAN RATE INCREASE IN STOCKS AT CURRENT PRICES INCREASE IN STOCKS AT CONSTANT PRICES IMPORTS OF FOODS IMMUNIZED AGAINST DIPHTHERIA (% UNDER 1) IMMUNIZED AGAINST MEASLES (% UNDER 1) IMPORTS, CEREALS CENTRAL BANK’S OFFICIAL DISCOUNT RATE INCOME IN CURRENT ACCOUNT: CREDIT INCOME IN CURRENT ACCOUNT: DEBIT EU’S COMMON OFFICIAL DISCOUNT RATE UNEQUAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION INFRASTRUCTURE INSURGENCY INTEREST PAYMENT (LONG-TERM DEBT, PUBLIC) ALL CREDITORS INTERNATIONAL WAR INTERNAL WAR INTEREST PAYMENTS (LONG-TERM DEBT) OFFICIAL CREDITORS INTEREST PAYMENTS (LONG-TERM DEBT) PRIVATE CREDITORS INTEREST PAYMENT (PRIVATE NONGUARANTEED) INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS PER THOUSAND PERSONS INTERNET HOSTS PER THOUSAND PERSONS IDEOLOGY OPPRESSION AND EXTERNAL DISMISSION PRIME RATE INTERNATIONAL PER CAPITA INCOME DISPARITIES (COMPARED WITH THE GLOBAL AVERAGE) IN TERMS OF REAL GDP AT 1995 CONSTANT PRICES INTERNATIONAL PER CAPITA INCOME DISPARITIES (COMPARED WITH THE AME AVERAGE) IN TERMS OF REAL GDP AT 1995 CONSTANT PRICES INTERNATIONAL PER CAPITA INCOME DISPARITIES (COMPARED WITH THE DGE AVERAGE) IN TERMS OF REAL GDP AT 1995 CONSTANT PRICES INTERNATIONAL PER CAPITA INCOME DISPARITIES (COMPARED WITH THE GLOBAL AVERAGE) IN TERMS OF REAL GDP AT 1995 PPP INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX INVENTORY STOCK AT CURRENT PRICES INVENTORY STOCK AT CONSTANT PRICES EURO-DOLLAR RATE TIME DEPOSIT RATE

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Appendix A. (Continued) ITI#

VTDF

MD95

ITKPROT IV# LANDMIN LANDCON LB LCLF LCLFF LCLFM LCLFMIN@ LIBOR LIFEEXP LIFEXPM LIFEXPF LPI LLPTP LTCB

VTDF VTDR VTDF VTDF VTDS VTDS VTDS VTDS VTXS STDR VTDR VTDF VTDF VTDP VTDR VTDF

GRAM 95=1 HA/TP HA/TP MD TP TP TP TP % YEAR YEAR YEAR 95 =1 NO/TP MDS

LW

VTDS

TP

M

VTDF

MD

M#

VTDF

MD95

MALNUT MILIAID MMFOB

VTDR VTXF VTDF

% MDS MDS

MMRT

VTDR

RATE

MORTY MPSED

VTDF VTDF

TP %

M1 M2

VTDS VTDS

MD MD

M2EU MTD

VTDS VTDS

MTD MD

MTELPTP

VTDR

NO / TP

MTFOB

VTDF

MDS

MTFOB#

VTDF

MD95

NATY NCUCR@

VTDF VTXF

NDISAST@

VTXF

TP Millions= 1 POINT

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT AT CONSTANT MARKET PRICES DAILY PROTEIN INTAKE OF FISH PER CAPITA MONEY SUPPLY (M2) / REAL INCOME INDEX AGRICULTURAL LAND MINCING AGRICULTURAL LAND CONCENTRATION CLAIMS ON PRIVATE SECTOR, OUTSTANDING CIVILIAN LABOUR FORCE CIVILIAN LABOUR FORCE: FEMALE CIVILIAN LABOUR FORCE: MALE INFLOWED CIVILIAN LABOUR FORCE: MALE (NET) LONDON INTERBANK OFFERED RATE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (MALE) LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (FEMALE) LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY INDEX LEASED LINES PER THOUSAND PERSONS LONG-TERM CAPITAL BALANCE AT CURRENT US DOLLARS WAGE EARNER AND SALARIED EMPLOYEES IN ALL ACTIVITY IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES AT CONSTANT PRICES CHILD MALNUTRITION (% UNDER 5) MILITARY AIDS MERCHANDISE IMPORTS AT CURRENT US DOLLARS (BOP BASE) MATERNA MORTALITY RATE (P/1000,000 LIVE BABIES) MORTALITY MASS POVERTY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DISPARITIES (SHARE OF INCOME HELD BY POOREST 40% OF HOUSHOLDS) MONEY SUPPLY (M1), OUTSTANDING MONEY AND QUASI-MONEY (M1+MTD), OUTSTANDING M2 OF EU AS A GROUP QUASI-MONEY (TIME AND SAVING DEPOSITS), OUTSTANDING MOBILE TELEPHONE NUMBERS PER THOUSAND PERSONS MERCHANDISE, IMPORTS (FOB) AT CURRENT US DOLLARS MERCHANDISE, IMPORTS (FOB) AT CONSTANT PRICES NATALITY NATIONAL CURRENCY UNIT CONVERSION RATE (MILLIONS = 1, BILLIONS =1000) NATURAL DISASTERS

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Appendix A. (Continued) NETMGT NETMGTR NENGYTB@

VTDF VTDF VTXF

TP /TP MTOE

NFCR NFLOW

VTDF VTDF

MDS MDS

NFLOWOF

VTDF

MDS

NFLOWP

VTDF

MDS

NHFCS#

VTDS

MD95

NHI

VTDF

MD

NHI#

VTDF

MD95

NHINP

VTDF

MD

NHINP#

VTDF

MD95

NMFOOD NOX NP NPG NPDGE NPF NPFEA

VTDF VTDF VTDS STDS STDS VTDS VTDS

MD TT TP TP TP TP TP

NPFO65

VTDS

TP

NPFU15

VTDS

TP

NPM NPMEA

VTDS VTDS

TP TP

NPMO65 NPMU15 NPO65 NPRURAL NPSLUM NPURBAN NRR

VTDS VTDS VTDS VTDS VTDF VTDS VTDS

NTB@ NTR NTR# NUCL NUCLPOL

VTXR VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDS

TP TP TP TP TP TP Per woman NU MD MD95 MTOE POINT

NUMBER OF NET MIGRANTS NET MIGRANTS TO POPULATION (PER1000) NET ENERGY TRADE IN METRIC TON (COAL EQUIV) NEWLY FOREIGN CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS NET FLOWS (LONG-TERM DEBT) TOTAL ALL CREDITORS NET FLOWS (LONG-TERM DEBT) TOTAL OFFICIAL CREDITORS NET FLOWS (LONG-TERM DEBT) TOTAL PRIVATE CREDITORS NON-HOUSING FIXED CAPITAL STOCKS AT CONSTANT PRICES NON-HOUSING INVESTMENT AT CURRENT PRICES NON-HOUSING INVESTMENT AT CONSTANT PRICES NON-HOUSING INVESTMENT (NON GOVERNMENT) AT CURRENT PRICES NON-HOUSING INVESTMENT (NON GOVERNMENT) AT CONSTANT PRICES NET FOODS IMPORTS (AT CURRENT US$) NOX EMISSION NUMBER OF POPULATION NUMBER OF WORLD POPULATION NUMBER OF POPULATION OF DGE REGION NUMBER OF POPULATION: FEMALE NUMBER OF POPULATION FROM 15 TO 64 YEARS: FEMALE NUMBER OF POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS: FEMALE NUMBER OF POPULATION UNDER 15 YEARS: FEMALE NUMBER OF POPULATION: MALE NUMBER OF POPULATION FROM 15 TO 64 YEARS: MALE NUMBER OF POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS: MALE NUMBER OF POPULATION UNDER 15: MALE NUMBER OF POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS: TOTAL NUMBER OF RURAL POPULATION NUMBER OF URBAN SLUM POPULATION NUMBER OF URBAN POPULATION NET REPRODUCTON RATE NON TARIFF BARRIER NON-TAX REVENUE OF GOVERNMENT NON-TAX REVENUE OF GOVERNMENT (CONST.) NUCLEAR ENERGY REQUIREMENT NUCLEAR POLLUTION

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Appendix A. (Continued) NURS OBEDU# OBTECH# ODA

VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF

P MD95 MD95 MDS

ODAB ODAM

VTDF VTDF

MDS MDS

ODAMAT

NTDF

MDS

ODAR

VTDF

MDS

ODABR

VTDF

MDS

ODAMR

VTDF

MDS

ODATC ODATCR OIL OILWRD OLCB@

VTDF VTDF VTDF STDF VTXF

MDS MDS MT MT MDS

OOF OOFR OOFBR OOFMR

VTDF VTDF VTDF VTXF

MDS MDS MDS MDS

ORTH

VTDR

%

OS OS# OSAME

VTDF VTDF STDF

MD MD95 MD

O3G@ PAGR

VTXF VTDP

MT 95 =1

PCOAL PCFD PCG

VTDP VTDF VTDP

95 =1 MT/NP 95 =1

PCIDOT PCP

VTDR VTDP

% 95 =1

PCPTP PE PEC

VTDF VTDP STDP

NO / TP 95 =1 95 =1

PEGOLD PENA

STDP VTDP

95 =1 95 =1

NUMBER OF NURSES OBSOLETE EDUCATIONAL ASSETS OBSOLETE TECHNOLOGY ASSETS EACH AME'S ODA (NET) AT CURRENT US DOLLARS BILATERAL ODA (NET) AT CURRENT US DOLLARS CONTRIBUTIONS TO MULTI. INSTITUTIONS (NET) AT CURRENT US DOLLARS ODA (NET) FROM AME (I) TO DGE (J) AT CURRENT US DOLLARS OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE RECEIVED, TOTAL OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE RECEIVED, BILATERAL OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE RECEIVED, MULTILATERAL ODA TECHNICAL COOPERATION ODA TECHNICAL COOPERATION RECEIVED OIL REQUIREMENT WORLD OIL REQUIREMENT OTHER LONG-TERM CAPITAL, BALANCE AT CURRENT US DOLLARS OTHER OFFICIAL FLOWS OTHER OFFICIAL FLOWS RECEIVED OTHER OFFICIAL FLOWS RECEIVED BILATERAL OTHER OFFICIAL FLOWS RECEIVED MULTILATERAL RATE OF ORAL REHYDRATION THERAPY (% UNDER 5) OPERATING SURPLUS AT CURRENT PRICES OPERATING SURPLUS AT CONSTANT PRICES AME TOTAL OF OPERATING SURPLUS AT CURRENT PRICES GLOBAL OZONE EMISSION DOMESTIC PRICES IN AGRICULTURAL RAW MATERIALS AND FOODS DOMESTIC PRICE INDEX OF COAL PER CAPITA FOODS DEMAND IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE STAGNANT PER CAPITA INCOME IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE PERSONAL COMPUTERS PER THOUSAND PEOPLE EXPORT UNIT VALUE INDEX WORLD AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE INDEX OF COMMODITIES EXCLUDING OIL WORLD AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE INDEX OF GOLD IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF EXPORTS (GOODS AND SERVICES)

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World

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Appendix A. (Continued) PEO

STDP

PEOB

STDR

PECOAL

STDP

PEGAS

STDP

PELC PEOHR PEOH PEOH# PEOHPC PES

VTDP VTDR VTDR VTDR VTDF VTDP

PESAME

STDP

PEW

STDP

PFDI

VTDF

PFDIMAT

NTDF

PFDIR

VTDF

PFDIO

VTDF

PFDIL PGAS PGDP

VTDF VTDP VTDP

PGDPEU

VTDP

PGFCF

VTDP

PHI PHYS PLAND

VTDP VTDF VTDP

PM PMNA

VTDP VTDP

PMS

VTDP

PMW PNHI

STDP VTDP

PNHING

VTDP

PNUCL

VTDP

95 =1

WORLD AVERAGE CRUDE PETROLEUM EXPORT PRICE INDEX IN US DOLLARS $/B AVERAGE CRUDE PETROLEUM EXPORT PRICE IN US DOLLAR PER BARREL 95 =1 WORLD AVERAGE COAL EXPORT UNIT VALUE INDEX IN US DOLLARS 95 =1 AVERAGE GAS EXPORT UNIT VALUE INDEX IN US DOLLARS 95 =1 DOMESTIC ELECTRICITY PRICE INDEX % PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURES AS % OF GDP MD PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE S MD95 PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURES (CONST.) MD90/PC PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA 95 =1 EXPORT UNIT VALUE INDEX IN TERMS OF US DOLLAR 95 =1 AME EXPORT UNIT VALUE INDEX IN TERMS OF US DOLLAR 95 =1 WORLD EXPORT UNIT VALUE INDEX IN TERMS OF US DOLLARS MDS PRIVATE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AT CURRENT US DOLLARS MDS PRIVATE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FROM AME (I) TO DME (J) MDS PRIVATE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, RECEIVED MDS OUTSTANDING PFDI FROM COUNTRY TO COUNTRY MDS LIABILITIES OF PFDI IN HOST COUNTRIES 95 =1 DOMESTIC GAS PRICE INDEX 95 =1 IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 95 =1 EU’ S WEIGHTED AVERAGE IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 95 =1 IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF GRO’S FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION 95 =1 IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF HOUSING INVESTMENT P NUMBER OF PHYSICIANS 95=1 COMMERCIAL LAND PRICE INDEX OF MAJOR CITIES 95 =1 IMPORT UNIT VALUE INDEX 95 =1 IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF IMPORTS (GOODS AND SERVICES) 95 =1 IMPORT UNIT VALUE INDEX IN TERMS OF US DOLLAR 95 =1 WORLD IMPORT UNIT VALUE INDEX 95 =1 IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF NON-HOUSING INVESTMENT 95 =1 IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF NON-HOUSING INVESTMENT (NON GOVERNMENT) 95 =1 ELECTRICITY PRICE DERIVED FROM NUCLEAR

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Akira Onishi

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Appendix A. (Continued) POIL POINA

VTDP VTDF

95 =1 MDS

POINB

VTDF

MDS

POINL

VTDF

MDS

POLCNFL POOR20

VTXF VTDF

POINT %

POPBEDS PPFCF

VTDF VTDP

P 95=1

POS#

VTDF

MD95

POPPHY POVLHC

VTDF VTDF

P %

POVUPHC

VTDF

%

PREP

VTDF

MDS

PREPOC

VTDF

MDS

PREPPC

VTDF

MDS

PREPPNG

VTDF

MDS

PSES PSDP

VTDS VTDS

MD TP

PSI PUE

VTDF VTDF

POINT MD

RC RC# RD

VTDF VTDF VTDF

MD MD95 MD

RD#

VTDF

MD95

RDBE

VTDF

MD

RDBE#

VTDF

MD95

RDGOV

VTDF

MD

RDGOV#

VTDF

MD95

DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRICE INDEX PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, ASSETS AT CURRENT US DOLLARS PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, BALANCE AT CURRENT US DOLLARS PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, LIABILITIES AT CURRENT US DOLLARS POLITICAL CONFLICTS SHARE OF INCOME HELD BY POOREST 20% OF HOUSHOLDS POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BEDS IMPLICIT DEFLATOR OF PUBLIC FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON PUBLIC ORDER AND SAFETY (AT CONSTANT PRICES) POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN HEADCOUNT INDEX: LOWER POVERTY LINE (% OF HOUSHOLDS) HEADCOUNT INDEX: UPPER POVERTY LINE (% OF HOUSHOLDS) PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS (LONG-TERM PUBLIC DEBT) ALL CREDITORS PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS (LONG-TERM, PUBLIC DEBT) OFFICIAL CREDITORS PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS (LONG-TERM PUBLIC DEBT) PRIVATE CREDITORS PRINCIPAL REPAYMENT (PRIVATE NON-GURANTEED) PERSONAL SECURITIES EXCLUDING STOCKS DISPLACED PERSONS FROM LACK OF PEACE AND SECURITY INTEGRATED PEACE AND SECURITY INDICATORS PRIVATE UNINCORPORATED ENTERPRISES OPERATING SURPLUS CAPITAL REVENUE OF GOVERNMENT CAPITAL REVENUE OF GOVERNMENT (CONST.) RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES AT CURRENT PRICES RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES AT CONSTANT PRICES RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES BY BUSINESS ENTERPRISES RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES BY BUSINESS ENTERPRISES (CONST.) RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES BY GOVERNMENT RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES BY GOVERNMENT (CONST)

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Trade Policy in the Globalizing World

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Appendix A. (Continued) RDOTH

VTDF

MD

RDOTH#

VTDF

MD95

RG

VTDF

MD

RICH20

VTDF

%

ROED@

VTXF

POINT

SAFERU SC

VTDR VTDF

% MDS

SCOTH

VTDF

MDS

SCTPN

VTDF

MDS

SCTR SD

VTDF VTDF

MDS MDS

SDOTH

VTDF

MDS

SDTPN

VTDF

MDS

SDTR SMV SOILPOL SOLAR SOLARTE@ SOX SPI SSC SSC# SSCEE@

VTDF VTDS VTDS VTVF VTXF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTXF

MDS MD POINT MTOE MTOE TT 95=1 MD MD95 MD

SSCEE#@

VTXF

MD95

SSCER@

VTXF

MD

SSCER#@

VTXF

MD95

STDC

VTDF

MD

STDC#

VTDF

MD95

STDCE@

VTXF

MD

STDCE#@

VTXF

MD95

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES BY OTHERS. (NGO AND NON-BUSINESS) RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES BY OTHERS (COST) TOTAL REVENUE INCLUDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BOND REVENUE AT CURRENT PRICES SHARE OF INCOME HELD BY RICHEST 20% OF HOUSHOLDS RELIGIOUS OPPRESSION AND EXTERNAL DISMISSION ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (% OF NP) EXPORTS OF SERVICES AT CURRENT US DOLLARS OTHER SERVICES: CREDIT AT CURRENT US DOLLARS TRANSPORTATION, CREDIT AT CURRENT DOLLARS TRAVEL IN SC, CREDIT AT CURRENT US DOLLARS IMPORTS OF SERVICES AT CURRENT US DOLLARS OTHER SERVICES: DEBIT AT CURRENT US DOLLARS TRANSPORTATION, DEBIT AT CURRENT DOLLARS TRAVEL IN SD, DEBIT AT CURRENT US DOLLARS STOCK MARKET VALUE AT CURRENT PRICES SOIL POLLUTION SOLAR ENERGY USE SOLAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGY SOX EMISSION SHARE PRICE INDEX (REPRESENTATIVE INDEX) SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS (CONST.) SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS FOR EMPLOYEES SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS FOR EMPLOYEES SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS FOR EMPLOYERS (CONST.) SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS FOR EMPLOYERS (CONST.) STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY IN COST-STRUCTURE OF GDP STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY IN COST-STRUCTURE OF GDP# STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY IN EXPENDITURES OF GDP STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY IN EXPENDITURES OF GDP#

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Appendix A. (Continued) SUB

VTDF

SUB#

VTDF

SUBG

VTDF

SUBG#

VTDF

TB

VTDF

TBB

VTDF

TC TCR@ TD TD# TDGS TDGS#

VTDF VTXF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF

TDOD

VTDS

TDS

VTDF

TDSOC

VTDF

TDSPC

VTDF

TDSPNG

VTDF

TECA#PC

VTDR

TECHA# TECHE TECHE# TECHM TECHM# TEOH TEOH# TECHPC TECHR TELMPTP TEPM@ TERRA TERRAS TERRASI TFOODR TFOODS TFCE TFCALT@ TFCOAL TFCOALI

VTDS VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDR VTXF STDF STDF STDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTXF VTDF VTDF

MD

GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON SUBSIDIES (SNA BASE) MD95 GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON SUBSIDIES (SNA BASE) (CONST.) MD GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON SUBSIDIES (GFS BASE) MD95 GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE ON SUBSIDIES (GFS BASE) (CONST.) MDS MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE (DOT) AT CURRENT US DOLLARS MDS MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE (BOP) AT CURRENT US DOLLARS MD CONSUMPTION TAX % CONSUMPTION TAX RATE MD DIRECT TAXES MD95 DIRECT TAXES (CONST.) MD DOMESTIC TAXES ON GOODS AND SERVICES MD95 DOMESTIC TAXES ON GOODS AND SERVICES (CONST.) MDS DOMESTIC DEBT OUTSTANDING (SHORT AND LONG-TERM) MDS PUBLIC DEBT SERVICE (LONG-TERM DEBT) TOTAL ALL CREDITORS MDS PUBLIC DEBT SERVICE (LONG-TERM DEBT) OFFICIAL CREDITORS MDS PUBLIC DEBT SERVICE (LONG-TERM DEBT) PRIVATE CREDITORS MDS PRIVATE DEBT SERVICE (PRIVATE NON-GUARANTEED) MD95/TP TECHNOLOGY ASSETES AT CONSTANT PRICES PER THOUSAND PERSONS MD95 TECHNOLOGY ASSETS AT CONSTANT PRICES MD EXPORT OF TECHNOLOGY AT CURRENT PRICES MD95 EXPORT OF TECHNOLOGY AT CONSTANT PRICES MD IMPORT OF TECHNOLOGY AT CURRENT PRICES MD95 IMPORT OF TECHNOLOGY AT CONSTANT PRICES MD TOTAL HEALTH EXPENDITURES MD95 TOTAL HEALTH EXPENDITURES (CONST.) MD95/PC TOTAL HEALTH EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA % TOTAL HEALTH EXPENDITURES AS % OF GDP NO / TP TELEPHONE MAINLINES PER THOSAND PERSONS MD EMPLOYERS PAYROLL OR MANPOWER TAXES Terra TERRA CURRENCY UNIT Terra/$ TERRA EXCHANGE RATE PER DOLLAR 95=1 TERRA EXCHANGE RATE INDEX PER DOLLAR MT TOTAL FOODS REQUIREMENT MT TOTAL FOODS SUPPLY MTOE TOTAL FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY MTOE TFC ON ALTERNATIVE ENERGY MTOE TFC ON COAL. MTOE TFC ON COAL IN INDUSTRY

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Appendix A. (Continued) TFCOALT TFCOALO TFCELC TFCELCI TFCELCT TFCELCO TFCGAS TFCGASI TFCGAST TFCGASO TFCOIL TFCOILI TFCOILT TI# TID TID# TIN TIPC

VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF

MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MTOE MD95 MD MD95 MD MD

TIPC#

VTDF

MD95

TIR TIR# TITT

VTDF VTDF VTDF

MD MD95 MD

TITT#

VTDF

MD95

TLAND@ TOU TOU# TP TP# TPI

VTXS VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF VTDF

HA MD MD95 MD MD95 MD

TPI#

VTDF

MD95

TR

VTDF

MD

TR#

VTDF

MD95

TVSPTP TYC TYC#

VTDR VTDF VTDF

NO / PT MD MD95

UNEMP UNEMPR UNEMPRF UNEMPRM UTGB@

VTDS VTDR VTDR VTDR VTXF

TP NU NU NU MDS

TFC ON COAL IN TRANSPORT TFC ON COAL IN OTHER SECTORS TFC ON ELECTRICITY TFC ON ELECTRICITY IN INDUSTRY TFC ON ELECTRICITY IN TRANSPORT TFC ON ELECTRICITY IN OTHER SECTORS TFC ON GAS TFC ON GAS IN INDUSTRY TFC ON GAS IN TRANSPORT. TFC ON GAS IN OTHER SECTORS. TFC ON OIL TFC ON OIL IN INDUSTRY TFC ON OIL IN TRANSPORT INDIRECT TAXES (SNA BASE) (CONST.) INDIRECT TAXES (GFS BASE) INDIRECT TAXES (GFS BASE) (CONST.) INDIRECT TAXES (SNA BASE) TAXES ON INCOME AND PROFIT, AND CAPITAL GAIN TAXES ON INCOME AND PROFIT, AND CAPITAL GAIN (CONST.) OTHER INDIRECT TAXES OTHER INDIRECT TAXES (CONST.) TAXES ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND TRANSACTIONS TAXES ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND TRANSACTIONS (CONST.) TOTALLAND IN EACH COUNTRY OTHER UNALLOCABLE TAXES ON INCOME OTHER UNALLOCABLE TAXES ON INCOME (CONST. TAXES ON PROPERTY TAXES ON PROPERTY (CONST.) TAXES ON INCOME OF PROPERTY AND COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES TAXES ON INCOME OF PROPERTY AND COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES (CONST.) TAX REVENUE (CENTRAL GOVERNMENT) AT CURRENT PRICES TAX REVENUE (CENTRAL GOVERNMENT) AT CONSTANT PRICES TELEVISION SETS PER THOUSAND PERSONS TAXES ON INCOME OF PRIVATE CORPORATE TAXES ON INCOME OF PRIVATE CORPORATE (CONST.) UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: MALE UNREQUITED TRANSFERS OF GOVERNMENT, BALANCE

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Akira Onishi Appendix A. (Continued) VTXF

MDS

VHRI@ WATPOL WPI

VTXF VTDS VTDP

POINT POINT 95 =1

WSEI

VTDP

95 =1

WSEIAME

STDP

95 =1

XPDFOOD XPDSTPL XPDPROT

VTDR VTDR VTDR

% % %

UNREQUITED TRANSFERS OF PRIVATE, BALANCE VIOLATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS INDICATORS WATER POLLUTION (BOD, ETC.) WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX OR PRODUCERS PRICE INDEX INDEX OF AVERAGE WAGE AND SALARY PER EMPLOYEE AME'S INDEX OF AVERAGE WAGE AND SALARY PER EMPLOYEE EXPENDITURE AS % OF GDP#, ALL FOODS EXPENDITURE AS % OF GDP#, STAPLES EXPENDITURE AS % OF GDP#, PROTEINS

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

UTPB@

Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

1995 YEAR - 1 1 World 2 Developed Economies 3 Developed Asia-Pacific 4 Japan 5 Australia 6 North America 7 Canada 8 United States 9 Western Europe 10 EU15 11 Euro Area 12 France 13 Germany 14 Italy 15 United Kingdom 16 Developing Countries 17 Asia-Pacific 18 East Asia 19 China 20 Southeast Asia 21 Indonesia 22 South Asia 23 India 24 Pacific Islands 25 Middle East 26 Saudi Arabia 27 Africa

1 5051777 3416727 510345 445449 51730 800691 189970 610721 2105691 1981642 1625394 282751 506957 231802 229634 1448749 939923 577150 147099 313998 43489 44536 29260 4241 124376 49915 94084

2 3335310 2416285 246373 211302 26489 508771 174632 334139 1661140 1559285 1273532 218018 381131 170247 178782 824875 473633 281499 76501 161626 26602 26980 16699 3527 71225 27619 68742

3 362755 181376 30757 97290 16017 86213 9434 76779 64406 59195 43287 7109 17334 7149 9971 177514 136691 78077 30325 52713 13237 3560 2539 2340 27068 8802 3523

4 296345 134475 14410 8104 12185 72829 8531 64298 47236 43040 32793 5583 13157 5347 5972 158139 119995 69633 28466 46269 12201 2979 2130 1113 25492 8103 3113

5 54154 37124 10888 127862 0 11564 776 10788 14671 13807 9063 1276 3674 1543 3312 16905 14592 7351 1626 5625 908 493 351 1123 1382 591 351

6 944674 573508 133687 0 4240 278920 152896 126024 160902 148799 107144 18593 41046 19051 32038 363200 194199 122236 26277 62223 6703 9517 5597 223 16451 8836 14743

7 166414 148792 6934 5828 882 126024 0 126024 15834 13586 9615 1877 2870 2151 2857 17251 11180 8229 1533 2377 363 551 292 22 589 360 1045

8 778260 424716 126753 122034 3358 152896 152896 0 145067 135214 97529 16716 38176 16899 29182 345949 183019 114006 24744 59846 6341 8966 5305 201 15862 8476 13698

9 2027891 1661400 81930 73711 6231 143638 12302 131336 1435832 1351290 1123101 192316 322752 144047 136773 284161 142743 81186 19899 46690 6661 13903 8563 964 27707 9981 50476

**WORLD TRADE MATRIX : A - SUMMARY TABLE ** (MILLIONS OF CURRENT US DOLLARS)

APPENDIX B: WORD TRADE MATRIX

10 1906902 1556382 78168 70367 5865 134897 11282 123615 1343316 1259699 1051059 180067 290323 134280 129095 273907 137096 77400 19258 45278 6571 13456 8233 963 27127 9977 49413

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

2 26562 42180 11650 186529 26122 73457 21362 13221 94165 10580 45757 38473

1 32617 61467 20387 251629 46524 79056 32882 21525 186439 19155 109585 75889

11 1528588 1239150 57856 53040 3808 96986 8257 88730 1084308 1023214 847320 145709 226208

1995 YEAR - 2

2 Developed Economies 3 Developed Asia-Pacific 4 Japan 5 Australia 6 North America 7 Canada 8 United States 9 Western Europe 10 EU15 11 Euro Area 12 France 13 Germany

1 World

3446 988 294 234 3865 77 3477 3203

3 527 2996 1731 9930 3102 928 220 180 3731 58 3441 3173

4 505 2608 1409 9318 299 56 63 44 125 17 34 29

5 11 340 282 511 9260 68455 2117 1610 7966 562 5869 5213

6 2686 12056 1479 135555 461 1979 143 96 371 62 155 121

7 293 752 137 4286 8799 66475 1974 1514 7595 500 5714 5092

8 2393 11304 1341 131269

233453 6768 6067 556 15534 1284 14250 211151 199999 170854 0 59024

12 2711124 356486 21500 20328 843 24652 2276 22376 310333 286046 234907 50092 0

13 448481 141968 5217 4065 957 10142 1274 8868 126609 119240 102042 27373 38194

14 18675 213222 16734 14073 1829 31494 2667 28827 164994 151329 139363 26262 40650

15 262473

897951 261478 232054 24963 285631 14967 270663 350841 331557 268616 58483 87457

16 1527293

492028 221942 196282 22212 125264 8822 116442 144822 134903 105928 20260 41282

17 953053

278680 126263 113169 11285 78184 6529 71655 74232 68803 55793 9936 22307

18 543471

** WORLD TRADE MATRIX : A - SUMMARY TABLE ** ( MILLIONS OF CURRENT US DOLLARS )

1995 YEAR - 1 28 North Africa 29 Sub-Saharan Africa 30 South Africa 31 Latin America and the Caribbean 32 Brazil 33 Mexico 34 Mediterranean 35 Turkey 36 Economies in Transition 37 South-Eastern Europe 38 CIS 39 Russian Federation

Appendix B. (Continued)

58751 24573 21934 2293 14041 2293 11749 20136 19237 16518 2637 7465

19 160026

13416 4014 18951 11378 82334 9941 36412 30057

9 23348 27128 8440 41043

180470 87415 77912 8452 41531 1816 39715 51525 47964 36587 7847 14425

20 346324

12912 3389 18526 11084 76617 9733 31861 26051

10 22882 26531 8273 38595

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16 Developing Countries 17 Asia-Pacific 18 East Asia 19 China 20 Southeast Asia 21 Indonesia 22 South Asia 23 India 24 Pacific Islands 25 Middle East 26 Saudi Arabia 27 Africa 28 North Africa 29 Sub-Saharan Africa 30 South Africa 31 Latin America and the Caribbean 32 Brazil 33 Mexico 34 Mediterranean 35 Turkey 36 Economies in Transition 37 South-Eastern Europe 38 CIS 39 Russian Federation

14 Italy 15 United Kingdom 1995 YEAR - 2 33250 14176 8114 1844 4656 529 1234 683 173 4231 1962 8938 4676 4261 342 3803 1038 483 1966 1033 4421 753 1850 1516

10994 2838 16243 9516 70693 8532 28215 22895

12

11 218748 104116 59784 15602 33955 5212 9735 5974 642 28828 8523 43144 21451 21693 5813 31384

30580 21980

111425 118826

3079 7569 6079

2158 515 7880 5036 29255

62740 37000 23206 5672 10372 1410 3081 1841 341 2347 256 7094 3510 3585 1255 7254

13

44158 29053

3054 4536 3292

1713 197 3266 1457 9670

34736 10421 6089 2067 2847 762 1479 974 7 5178 1976 10054 7429 2626 664 4545

14

0 11403

485 3503 3103

1326 504 1680 1136 5887

43364 26997 13804 2791 9823 1131 3068 1881 301 4000 734 5276 988 4289 2285 5332

15

14579 0

Appendix B. (Continued)

5783 17735 13053

19417 5591 7158 5134 26884

602479 455097 288953 67392 149516 16722 15921 11275 707 51112 22293 24252 5590 18662 8570 63228

16

50094 45537

909 9694 7797

5499 943 1319 1046 12005

449021 395378 252084 58434 133193 14136 9408 6727 694 31178 14163 7831 1189 6641 3349 13245

17

16525 20995

356 5787 4505

3292 660 533 468 6673

258119 230849 180054 45346 46023 6931 4396 2791 376 14509 7061 3430 332 3098 2170 8743

18

10166 8797

226 4263 3377

1204 37 97 67 4624

96651 91457 82102 0 8838 1832 438 283 78 1464 278 981 161 820 289 2625

19

2695 1299

336 2232 1982

1607 254 595 418 3089

162765 146753 64257 10475 79342 6517 2932 2372 223 9711 4828 2230 248 1982 861 3469

20

4552 8518

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21 36113 23836 11905 9969 1737 3833 438 3395 8098 7688 6431 1036 2748 749 828 12058 10227 7542 1438 2052 0 627 501 6 638 500 415

2 Developed Economies 3 Developed Asia-Pacific 4 Japan 5 Australia 6 North America 7 Canada 8 United States 9 Western Europe 10 EU15 11 Euro Area 12 France 13 Germany 14 Italy 15 United Kingdom 16 Developing Countries 17 Asia-Pacific 18 East Asia 19 China 20 Southeast Asia 21 Indonesia 22 South Asia 23 India 24 Pacific Islands 25 Middle East 26 Saudi Arabia 27 Africa

1 World

1995 YEAR - 3 29205 6079 4746 1130 5331 469 4862 17795 16876 12384 1662 4359 1759 3614 26975 16742 7663 2574 7007 662 2043 1548 29 6864 2270 2159

22 58420 19996 3436 2543 813 3598 303 3296 12961 12358 9075 1054 3195 1095 2655 14133 6758 3071 765 3541 375 138 0 8 4969 1560 1728

23 35726 3672 2185 455 1346 218 8 211 1269 1260 1164 814 192 48 67 1163 1033 109 40 821 25 37 16 66 94 3 11

24 4838 81498 10055 8606 1190 18191 1023 17168 53252 49829 37778 6896 10603 8451 9398 38291 20585 9843 2552 7094 1190 3648 2509 1 10860 4012 1985

25 123384 21837 3087 2704 276 6413 328 6085 12337 11069 7688 1328 2472 1524 2594 7973 5178 2819 734 1680 394 678 425 0 1142 0 613

26 29996 81048 8278 7330 751 11000 1094 9906 61770 60024 50196 17749 11062 8078 7438 33426 14301 8495 2463 3911 530 1887 1482 8 3957 1432 10790

27 117045 34553 1634 1408 108 5224 726 4497 27696 27100 24448 8879 4359 4772 1624 8858 3328 1944 679 1061 290 323 178 1 1334 749 1786

28 45367 46494 6644 5922 642 5776 368 5409 34074 32923 25747 8870 6703 3305 5859 24568 10973 6551 1784 2850 239 1565 1304 7 2623 683 9005

29 71679

** WORLD TRADE MATRIX : A - SUMMARY TABLE ** ( MILLIONS OF CURRENT US DOLLARS )

Appendix B. (Continued)

17938 3008 2483 483 2909 158 2751 12022 11405 8038 1006 1003 1134 2893 6715 3915 2794 634 827 77 291 269 3 1278 167 698

30 24822

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1011 594 29 188 159 2240 216 1675 1310

366 16 37 32 218 64 83 81

12

11 741

609 1550 315

67 347 153

31 273163 201146 19564 18555 566 127545 3795 123750 54037 51284 44129 10363 13098

1995 YEAR - 4

2 Developed Economies 3 Developed Asia-Pacific 4 Japan 5 Australia 6 North America 7 Canada 8 United States 9 Western Europe 10 EU15 11 Euro Area 12 France 13 Germany

1 World

320 25 55 42 1597 115 1243 998

615

13

517 1211 193

6 0 3 1 3 0 0 0

21

14

1 11 3

1288 75 2330 2050 3595 823 2086 1287

2468

15

767 1219 656

360 37 506 470 186 64 33 28

526

16

190 422 90

1586 25 1255 1066 2573 928 1116 755

2957

17

1792 8998 3845

712 21 1050 900 1956 566 925 640

1317

18

1349 437 44

31128 2882 2599 241 12351 908 11444 15895 14956 13114 1409 5053

32 49757 56891 3702 3572 57 47097 786 46312 6092 5749 5101 897 2377

33 61674 35403 1610 1267 234 3427 220 3208 30365 29126 24785 2975 9325

34 50252

22452 1218 905 210 2913 186 2727 18321 17441 14821 1832 6356

35 32745

102497 2494 2093 279 6290 371 5919 93713 90803 83249 6251 38369

36 189307

15976 187 74 109 622 31 591 15168 14670 12579 915 4852

37 25301

** WORLD TRADE MATRIX : A - SUMMARY TABLE ** ( MILLIONS OF CURRENT US DOLLARS )

31 Latin America and the Caribbean 32 Brazil 33 Mexico 34 Mediterranean 35 Turkey 36 Economies in Transition 37 South-Eastern Europe 38 CIS 39 Russian Federation

28 North Africa 29 Sub-Saharan Africa 30 South Africa 1995 YEAR - 2

Appendix B. (Continued)

34692 1583 1344 125 3971 171 3800 29137 28367 24954 2211 10721

38 89178

873 3 206 165 617 362 190 116

1640

19

443 8561 3802

26121 1392 1170 109 3194 128 3066 21535 21034 18438 1673 7217

39 52738

261 0 72 67 169 80 32 16

748

20

11 687 0

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

32

31 21261 16409 3131 4289 727 560 360 3 2055 1133 2004 455 1548 609 43882 10719 4541 629 583 2136 326 1223 928

17 Asia-Pacific 18 East Asia 19 China 20 Southeast Asia 21 Indonesia 22 South Asia 23 India 24 PacificIslands 25 Middle East 26 Saudi Arabia 27 Africa 28 North Africa 29 Sub-Saharan Africa 30 South Africa 31 Latin America and the Caribbean 32 Brazil 33 Mexico 34 Mediterranean 35 Turkey 36 Economies in Transition 37 South-Eastern Europe 38 CIS 39 Russian Federation

5580 4214 759 1195 202 170 98 0 1575 1094 1115 309 806 290 9749 0 800 40 28 566 83 294 108

3170 1067 18062

8162 4291 69881

14 Italy 15 United Kingdom 16 Developing Countries 1995 YEAR - 4 3027 2251 195 703 92 73 50 0 34 0 83 44 39 31 1547 496 0 14 8 78 5 32 28

33

616 434 4705 3554 2119 507 1024 138 409 189 1 2990 1550 1377 1153 224 104 630 307 7 312 280 5194 1678 3295 2047

34

6756 2954 9655

Appendix B. (Continued)

2663 1766 431 554 120 342 156 1 2591 1330 1081 896 185 98 444 198 7 23 0 3449 777 2468 1632

35

3233 1827 6845 11196 6699 3206 2856 165 1635 1286 7 2039 3 1091 465 626 167 1872 985 9 4363 3170 65390 2792 46092 24362

36

11462 5315 21420 873 295 214 511 41 66 43 1 503 4 499 376 122 42 351 159 5 2067 652 4229 1661 2229 1536

37

4143 871 5096 6686 4048 2019 1247 6 1390 1119 0 1293 2 395 120 276 68 1152 629 0 2652 2094 41964 1714 34144 15389

38

3563 1776 12523 5684 3410 1674 1100 6 1174 1031 0 564 0 278 102 176 64 1061 569 0 1714 1238 17039 972 12675 0

39

2869 1371 9579

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APPENDIX C: WORLD POPULATION UNIT : % - LONG TERM World Developed Market Economies Developed Asia-Pacific Japan North America Canada United States Western Europe EU15 France Germany Italy United Kingdom Developing Economies Asia-Pacific East Asia China:Mainland Southeast Asia(ASEAN) Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand South Asia India Middle East Africa North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Brazil Mediterranean Economies in Transition Eastern Europe CIS Russian Federation 1 Japan 2 Australia 3 New Zealand 4 Canada 5 United States

NP - NUMBER OF POPULATION (AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES) 2001-2005 2006-2010 2001-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2011-2020 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0.1 0.4 0 0.4 0 0 0.2 0 -0.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.6 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.4 1.4

-0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.3 0 0 0.2 0 -0.1 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.5 1.4 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.7 2.3 1.3

0 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0 0 0.2 0 -0.1 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.3 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.4 1.4

0 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0.1 0.1 1.3 1 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 1 0.8 0.4 1.3 1 2 2.2 1.6 2.3 1.2

-0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 1 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.3 1.2 0.9 1.9 2.2 1.5 2.3 1.2

0 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0 0.1 1.3 1 0.6 0.6 1 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.9 2 2.2 1.6 2.3 1.2

1.2 1.2 0 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.6 0 0.4

1.1 1.1 0.1 0 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.3

1.2 1.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.4

1 1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0 0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.3

0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.1 0.2

0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.1 0.2

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Appendix C. (Continued) UNIT : % - LONG TERM 7 Denmark 8 France 9 Germany 10 Greece 11 Ireland 12 Italy 13 Luxembourg 14 Netherlands 15 Portugal 16 Spain 17 United Kingdom 18 Austria 19 Finland 20 Iceland 21 Norway 22 Sweden 23 Switzerland 24 China: Mainland 25 China:Hong Kong 26 China:Macau 27 Taiwan (Province of China) 28 Korea: Republic of 29 Korea: North 30 Brunei 31 Indonesia 32 Malaysia 33 Philippines 34 Singapore 35 Thailand 36 Cambodia 37 Lao P. D. Rep 38 Myanmar (Burma) 39 Viet Nam 40 Afghanistan 41 Bangladesh 42 Bhutan 43 India 44 Mongolia 45 Nepal 46 Pakistan 47 Sri Lanka 48 Fiji 49 French Polynesia 50 Guam

NP - NUMBER OF POPULATION (AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES) 2001-2005 2006-2010 2001-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2011-2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0 -0.1 0 -0.1 0 0 0 -0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 -0.1 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0 0 0 -0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.6 2.1 2.4 1 1.3 2.7 1.7 2.6 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7

0.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.5 2.3 2.3 0.8 1.1 2.8 1.5 2.7 1.2 1.2 2.1 2.6 1 1.4 1.6 1.7

0.7 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.6 2.2 2.4 0.9 1.2 2.7 1.6 2.7 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.6 1 1.4 1.6 1.7

0.7 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.5 1 0.8 0.4 2.3 2.3 0.6 1 2.9 1.2 2.7 1 1 1.9 2.6 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6

0.7 3 1.8 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.3 2.4 2.3 0.5 0.9 2.9 1 2.6 0.9 0.8 1.8 2.6 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.6

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0.7 2.6 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 2.4 2.3 0.5 0.9 2.9 1.1 2.6 0.9 0.9 1.9 2.6 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.6

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Appendix C. (Continued) UNIT : % - LONG TERM 51 Kiribati: Rep. of 52 Maldives 53 Nauru 54 New Caledonia 55 Papua New Guinea 56 Solomon Islands 57 Tonga 58 Tuvalu 59 Western Samoa 60 Vanuatu 61 Bahrain 62 Iran: I.R. of 63 Iraq 64 Israel 65 Jordan 66 Kuwait 67 Lebanon 68 Oman 69 Qatar 70 Saudi Arabia 71 Syrian Arab Rep 72 United Arab Emirates 73 Yemen Rep 74 Algeria 75 Egypt 76 Libya 77 Morocco 78 Tunisia 79 Angola 80 Benin 81 Botswana 82 Burkina Faso 83 Burundi 84 Cameroon 85 Cape Verde 86 Central African Rep. 87 Chad 88 Comoros 89 Congo 90 Djibouti 91 Eritrea 92 Equatorial Guinea 93 Ethiopia 94 Gabon 95 Gambia: The

NP - NUMBER OF POPULATION (AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES) 2001-2005 2006-2010 2001-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2011-2020 1.8 1.8 1.8 2 2.1 2 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 3 3.1 3 3.1 3.1 3.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 2 2 1 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.2 1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3 3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 1 1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 3.1 2.9 3 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 2 2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2.9 3.1 3 3.3 3.4 3.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.8 2 2.6 2.4 2.5 2 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2 2.1

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Appendix C. (Continued) UNIT : % - LONG TERM 96 Ghana 97 Guinea 98 Guinea Bissau 99 Ivory Coast 100 Kenya 101 Lesotho 102 Liberia 103 Madagascar 104 Malawi 105 Mali 106 Mauritania 107 Mauritius 108 Mozambique 109 Namibia 110 Niger 111 Nigeria 112 Reunion 113 Rwanda 114 St. Helena 115 Sao Tome and Principe 116 Senegal 117 Seychelles 118 Sierra Leone 119 Somalia 120 South Africa 121 Sudan 122 Swaziland 123 Tanzania 124 Togo 125 Uganda 126 Zaire 127 Zambia 128 Zimbabwe 129 Argentina 130 Antigua and Barbuda 131 Bahamas The 132 Barbados 133 Belize 134 Bermuda 135 Bolivia 136 Brazil 137 Chile 138 Colombia

NP - NUMBER OF POPULATION (AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES) 2001-2005 2006-2010 2001-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2011-2020 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2 1.7 1.9 2.1 2 2.1 2 2 2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.1 2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.3 3.1 3.2 3 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.9 1 0.9 1 1.1 1.1 3.1 2 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2 2.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 1.1 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.7 3.2 3 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.4 2.3 2 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.8 0.9 2 2.7 2.3 2.6 3.5 3.4 2.2 1.2 1.1 1.2

2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.5 3.7 3.2 2.2 1.4 1.1 1.1

2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 1 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.6 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.1

2.5 2.5 2.9 2.3 1.2 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.5 3.8 3.2 2.1 1.5 1 1.1

2.4 2.5 2.9 2.2 1.2 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 3.8 3.2 2.2 1.6 1 1.1

2.4 2.5 2.9 2.3 1.2 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 3.8 3.2 2.1 1.6 1 1.1

1.5 0.3 2.2 1 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.6

1.5 0.2 2 1 1.9 1.1 1.3 1.6

1.5 0.2 2.1 1 2 1.2 1.3 1.6

1.5 0.1 1.9 1 1.7 1 1.3 1.5

1.4 0.1 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.5

1.4 0.1 1.8 1 1.6 0.9 1.3 1.5

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Appendix C. (Continued) UNIT : % - LONG TERM 139 Costa Rica 140 Cuba 141 Dominica 142 Dominican Republic 143 Ecuador 144 El Salvador 145 Greenland 146 Grenada 147 Guadeloupe 148 Guatemala 149 Guiana: French 150 Guyana 151 Haiti 152 Honduras 153 Jamaica 154 Martinique 155 Mexico 156 Montserrat 157 Netherlands Antilles 158 Nicaragua 159 Panama 160 Paraguay 161 Peru 162 Puerto Rico 163 St. Kitts Nevis 164 St. Lucia 165 St. Pierre Miquelon 166 St. Vincent 167 Suriname 168 Trinidad and Tobago 169 Uruguay 170 Venezuela 171 Cyprus 172 Malta 173 Turkey 174 Bosnia and Herzegovina 175 Croatia 176 Slovenia 177 TFYR Macedonia 178 Yugoslavia:FR Serbia/Montenegro 179 Albania 180 Bulgaria

NP - NUMBER OF POPULATION (AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES) 2001-2005 2006-2010 2001-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2011-2020 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.7 7.6 5.1 1.8 1.7 0.7 1.5 1.1 2.6 1.9 1 1.5 2.5 1.1 0.7 1.5 1.7 0.7 2.7 1.4 2.4 1.6 0.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.7

1.7 1.7 0.6 1.4 1.2 2.4 1.9 0.9 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.7 1.4 1.8 0.5 2.6 1.4 2.3 1.5 0.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 0 0.8

1.7 1.7 0.6 1.4 1.2 2.5 1.9 0.9 1.5 2.3 1.1 0.7 1.4 1.7 0.6 2.6 1.4 2.3 1.5 0.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 0.3 0.8

1.6 1.7 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.9 1 1.4 1 1 0.7 1.2 1.9 0.4 2.5 1.4 2.2 1.4 0.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.7 0 1

1.4 1.7 0.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1 0.8 0.9 2.2 0.3 2.5 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 2 3.7 0 1.3

1.5 1.7 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.9 1 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 1.1 2 0.3 2.5 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.9 3.2 0 1.2

0.7 1.7 0.7 0.5 1.4 2.1

0.7 1.6 0.7 0.4 1.3 2.1

0.7 1.7 0.7 0.4 1.4 2.1

0.7 1.7 0.6 0.4 1.1 2.1

0.7 1.8 0.6 0.3 1 2.1

0.7 1.7 0.6 0.4 1.1 2.1

-0.2 -0.1 0.7 0

-0.2 0 0.4 0

-0.2 0 0.5 0

0 0.1 0.1 0

0 -0.2 -0.1 0

0 0 0 0

0.9 -0.5

0.8 -0.4

0.8 -0.5

0.8 0.2

0.7 1.2

0.7 0.7

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Akira Onishi Appendix C. (Continued)

UNIT : % - LONG TERM 181 Czech Republic 182 Hungary 183 Poland 184 Romania 185 Slovakia 186 Armenia 187 Azerbaijan 188 Belarus 189 Estonia 190 Georgia 191 Kazakhstan 192 Kyrgyzstan 193 Latvia 194 Lithuania 195 Republic of Moldova 196 Russian Federation 197 Tajikistan 198 Turkmenistan 199 Ukraine 200 Uzbekistan

NP - NUMBER OF POPULATION (AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES) 2001-2005 2006-2010 2001-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2011-2020 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0 0 0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -2 -1.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.8 1 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.6 1 0.8 1.6 2.3 1.9 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 2 1.6 1.7 1.6 2 2.3 2.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.7 3.1 6.3 4.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 2.2 1.7 -0.6 1.7

-0.3 2.2 1.5 -0.8 1.6

-0.3 2.2 1.6 -0.7 1.6

0.1 2.3 1.3 -0.4 1.6

0.2 2.4 1 -0.4 1.7

0.1 2.4 1.2 -0.4 1.7

Source: FUGI global modeling system.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author, Akira Onishi, is grateful to supports from UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) Secretariat in Geneva, United Nations Secretariat in New York, UNESCO-EOLSS Secretariat in Paris, WHO Secretariat in Geneva, the World Bank Secretariat in Washington D.C., the United Nations ESCAP Secretariat in Bangkok and FOST( Foundation for Fusion of Science and Technology in Japan). Special thanks is also extended to a number of scholars around the world for their helpful suggestions in regard to the global modeling work, in particular, Prof. L. Klein, Prof. W. Leontief, Prof. J. Tobin, Prof. R. Courbis, Dr. H. Chestnut, Prof. H. Guetzkow, Prof. B. Hickman, Prof. W. Krelle, Dr. T.. Oren, Dr. A. Costa, Prof. M. Scobie, Dr. A. Kolodziejak, H. Flassbeck, H. Sarkar, H. Fromlet and Prof. T. Utsumi.

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REFERENCES Onishi, A., 1965. Projections of economic growth and intra-regional trade for the developing ECAFE Region, 1960-1970, Developing Economies, Vol. 3(2), ( pp.158-172). Onishi, A., 1977. Report on Project FUGI: future of global interdependence, Fifth IIASA Global Modeling g Conference, (pp.1-183), Ref., Tables, Maps, Graphs, Figures, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, September 1977. Onishi, A., 1980. FUGI-futures of global interdependence in input-output approaches in global modelling, Proceedings of the fifth IIASA symposium on global modelling, IIASA proceedings series 9, (pp. 91-357), Oxford: Pergamon. Onishi, A., 1981. Projections of the world economy, 1980-1990, using FUGI global macroeconomics model, Type IV 011-62 - Scenario forecasts of the OPEC strategy for oil pricing, Seminar on Comparative Simulations of Global International Economic Models, Stanford University; (pp.1-34), IAER, June 1981. Onishi, A., 1986a. Alternative futures of the world economy, 1986-2000, -- policy simulations by the FUGI model, Dynamic modelling and control of national economies1986,In: B. Martus, E.Pau and M. Ziermana, (Eds.) Fifth IFAC/IFORS Conference, Budapest, Hungary, June 17-20, (pp.125-130). Amsterdam: Pergamon/ Onishi, A., 1986b. A new generation of the FUGI model -- a global early warning system for national and international conflicts, Proceedings of the second workshop and conference of the IFAC working group on supplemental ways for improving international stability (SWIIS), in June 3-5, 1986, (H. Chestnut and Y. Haimes, Eds.), Contributions of technology to international conflict resolution, Cleveland, OH: Case Western Reserve University. Onishi, A., 1986c. Economics of global interdependence--- projections of the world economy using the FUGI global macroeconomic model ----- a report to the United Nations -----Institute of Applied Economic Research, Soka University, (pp.1-411), September. Onishi A., 1986d. A new generation FUGI model-- a global early warning system for national and international conflicts, Contributions of technology to international conflict resolution, in H. Chestnut, (Ed.), IFAC, Pergamon Press, (pp. 39-55) 1986 IFAC, Amsterdam: Pergamon. Onishi, A., 1987. Global early warning system for displaced persons: Interlink ages of environment, development, peace and human rights, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.31 (3), May. Onishi, A., 1990. Uses of global models: a new generation FUGI model for projections and policy simulations of the world economy", International Political Science Review, vol., No.2, Butterworths, April, 1990, (pp.280-293). Onishi, A., 1991. Global model simulations of energy requirements and CO2 emissions, International Conference on Coal, Environment and Development, Coal, The Environment and Development: Technologies to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Proceedings, Sydney, Australia, 18-21 November, 1991 (pp. 215-224), OECD 1992. Onishi, A (1993) FUGI global model 7.0 ------ a new frontier science of global economic modelling, Economic and Financial Computing, Vol.3 Number 1 Spring1993, A Journal of the European Economics and Financial Centre, May 1993 ( pp.3-67).

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Onishi, A (1994) A new frontier of global model simulation: Global linkages of biology, ecology, economic development and human health, CISS-First Joint Conference of International Simulation Societies Proceedings, J. Halin, W. Karplus and R. Rimane (Eds.), August 22-25, 1994, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, August 1994. (pp.558-561). Onishi, A (1994) Global Model Simulation: A New Frontier of Economics and Systems Science, Soka University Institute for Systems Science, September 1994 (pp.1-252). Onishi, A (1995a) FUGI global model: Simulations of global CO2 cut-back and arms reduction on the world economy, In: Lawrence R, Klein and Fu-chen Lo (Eds.), Modelling Global Change, United Nations University Press, (pp.363-390). Onishi A. (1995b). FUGI global model as GEWS (Global early warning system model). In O. Tuncer and L. G. Birta, Eds. The Proceedings of the 1995 Summer Computer Simulation Conference, Ottawa, Canada, SCS. July 1995. (pp.1070–1077). Onishi A. (1996a). Projections of the world economy and population growth using the FUGI global model, 1995-2015, The Soka Economic Studies Quarterly, XXVI (1–2). (pp.1–99). Onishi A. (1997a). Impacts of global disarmament on the sustainable development of the world economy, 1996–2015, FUGI global model simulation, Paper prepared for the ECAAR Session at WasedaUniversity, Tokyo, 14 September. (pp.1-17). Onishi A. (1997b). FUGI global model as global early warning system (GEWS). Paper prepared for the United Nations ISPAC International Conference on Violent Crime and Conflicts. Towards Early Warning and Prevention Mechanism. Courmayeur, Mont Blanc, Italy, 4–6 October. (pp.1-7). Onishi A. (1998). FUGI global model simulation: Integrated global model for sustainable development, Soka University Institute for Systems Science, 1998. (pp1-347). Onishi A. (1999). FUGI global model 9.0 M 200 / 80—Integrated global model for sustainable development, Soka University Institute for Systems Science, (1-pp423). Onishi A. (2000). FUGI global model 9.0 M200: Integrated global model for sustainable development, Soka University Institute for Systems Science, 2000. (pp.1-415). Onishi, A. (2001a). The world economy to 2015, Policy simulations on sustainable development, Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 23, Number 2, February 2001, (pp.217-234). Onishi A. (2001b). FUGI global model 9.0 M200PC: a new frontier of economic science in 21st century, Economic and Financial Computing, Spring Issue, 2001, London, (pp.1-74). Onishi A. (2001c) Integrated global models of sustainable development, Our Fragile World, Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Development, Vol. II (Ed. M.K. Tolba), UNESCO, Eolss Publishers Co. Ltd. Oxford, UK, (pp.1293-1311). Onishi A. (2002a). Prospect for Globalization, Employment and Quality of Life in the 21st Century, Ed. Donald Lamberton, Managing the Globa; Globalization, Employment and Quality of Life, L.B.Tauris Publishers, London, New York, 2002, (pp.195-208) Onishi A. (2002b). FUGI Global Modeling System (FGMS200)—Integrated global model for sustainable development, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol.24, 2002, (pp561-590). Onishi A. (2003a). FUGI global model 9.0 M200, Integrated Global Models for Sustainable Development, UNESCO Encyclopaedia of Life Support System, EOLSS Publisher, Oxford, UK, 2003 (http://www.eolss.net). Onishi A. (2003b) FUGI global model for early warning of forced migration (http://www.forcedmigration.org ) Forced Migration Online, Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford.

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Onishi A. (2005), Futures of global interdependence(FUGI) global modelling system— Integrated global model for sustainable development, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol.27 2006, (pp101-135. Onishi A. (2006), Integrated Global Models for Sustainable Development, UNESCO Encyclopaedia of Life Support System, EOLSS Publisher, Oxford, UK, 2003-2006 [Available on line at (http://www.eolss.net )]. Onishi A. (2007), The impact of CO2 emissions on the world economy—Policy simulations of FUGI global model, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol.29 2007, (pp797-819). [Available on line at www.sciencedirct.com].

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INDEX 2 20th century, 161, 164, 165 21st century, xii, 227, 228, 229, 246, 262, 271, 272, 283, 354

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A Abdullah, 136, 138, 143 abuse, 35, 171 academic, 196, 202, 233 acceptance, 127, 172 access, ix, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 27, 55, 61, 62, 63, 64, 66, 67, 68, 69, 73, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 82, 83, 84, 86, 91, 101, 110, 118, 136, 203 accountability, 128, 129, 131, 134, 137 accounting, 6, 39, 84, 109, 113 accounting standards, 109 accumulation, 169, 172 accuracy, 4, 11, 180, 182, 183, 187, 188, 189, 190, 192, 193, 194, 198 achievement, 146 actionable subsidies, vii, viii, 17, 18, 19, 20, 37, 57 AD, ix, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 51, 54, 57, 58 ad hoc, 185 Adams, 205, 222 adaptability, 128, 149, 165 adjustment, 47, 49, 50, 52, 56, 126, 127, 133, 138, 142, 149, 150, 154, 301 administration, 54, 83, 86, 90, 93, 136, 140, 143, 145, 149, 154 advanced market XE "market" economies (AME), 230 advancement, 158, 170, 174, 234, 235 advancements, 130, 160, 169 adverse effects, vii, 17, 19, 53 advertising, 5, 7

affect, 150 Afghanistan, 103, 135, 136, 163, 231, 274, 348 Africa, 80, 91, 92, 159, 164, 171, 173, 175, 197, 230, 231, 232, 266, 268, 270, 271, 273, 276, 280, 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347, 350 African American, 173 African Americans, 173 African Growth and Opportunity Act, x, 97, 99, 102 age, 150, 158, 173, 175, 221, 225, 229, 237, 242, 246, 262, 271, 280 ageing, 144 agencies, vii, 1, 3, 4, 11, 15, 34, 37, 45, 56, 129, 130, 144, 145, 146, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 171 agent, 126 aggregates, 9, 249 AGOA, x, 97, 99, 101, 102 agrarian, 171 agricultural, 245, 282 agricultural export subsidies, 63, 65 agricultural exports, 85, 86 agricultural market, ix, 61, 66, 69, 79 agricultural sector, 73 agriculture, ix, x, 22, 61, 62, 64, 66, 67, 77, 78, 79, 80, 87, 89, 92, 144, 149, 170, 247, 248, 282 AIDS, 332 air, 195, 197 airline companies, 179 airlines, 162 airports, 181 Al Qaeda, 162 Alaska, 240 Albania, 232, 277, 351 Albanians, 172 Albert Einstein, 172 Algeria, 171, 231, 275, 349 algorithm, 181, 185, 199, 200 ALL, 325, 331, 332, 333, 336, 338, 340 Alps, 228

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alternative, xii, 1, 39, 127, 130, 135, 166, 174, 191, 196, 198, 202, 207, 211, 216, 217, 227, 228, 230, 234, 239, 240, 244, 247, 264, 267, 272, 283 alternative energy, 239, 240, 247, 272 alternatives, 83, 181 amendments, 37, 53, 79 American culture, 170 AMS, 71, 74, 82, 87, 92, 95 Amsterdam, 199, 353 analytical framework, 152 anger, 171 Anglo-Saxon, 130 Anglo-Saxon models, 130 Angola, 231, 275, 349 annihilation, 170 antidumping, viii, ix, 33, 34, 36, 37, 39, 40, 41, 44, 57, 75 Antidumping (AD), 34, 54 Antidumping Agreement, 35, 37, 40, 44 anti-globalization movement, 269 apartheid, 164 apparel, x, 44, 97, 101 Appellate Body, vii, viii, x, 17, 18, 26, 27, 28, 30, 33, 35, 44, 51, 97, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103 appendix, ix, 34, 35 application, 181, 191, 192, 195, 196, 198, 255 AR, 254 arbitration, vii, viii, 17, 19, 20, 21, 28, 44 Argentina, 91, 92, 113, 135, 232, 268, 276, 350 argument, xi, 27, 113, 115, 126, 147, 148, 149, 152, 153, 154, 155, 158, 186, 187, 201, 215, 216, 217 armed conflict, 171 Armenia, 233, 277, 352 arrest, 168 artificial, 181, 182, 185, 192, 195, 196, 198, 200 artificial intelligence, 181, 200 Artificial Neural Networks, 180, 181, 199 AS, 330, 332, 335, 338, 340 ascetic, 234 ASEAN, 273, 297, 320, 347 Asia, 106, 108, 110, 114, 115, 116, 122, 159, 165, 171, 173, 176, 205, 206, 220, 221, 222, 229, 230, 231, 267, 270, 271, 273, 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347 Asian, 204, 205, 229, 265, 266 Asian countries, 92, 205 Asian crisis, 106, 110, 113, 117 Asian cultures, 159 asparagus, 51 aspiration, xi, 157, 234 assault, 143 assessment, 8, 39, 81, 153, 164, 198

assets, 111, 112, 113, 114, 237, 241, 242, 245, 246, 250, 253 association, 141, 151 assumptions, 87, 160, 172 asymmetric information, 111, 116, 134 asymmetry, 193, 216, 217 asymptotically, 190, 191 Atlantic Ocean, 166 atmosphere, 134, 228 attacks, 108, 113, 116, 132, 161 attention, 4, 109, 115, 137, 165, 166, 196, 204, 234, 240, 252 attitudes, 159, 171 Australia, ix, 13, 61, 62, 64, 86, 91, 92, 221, 228, 230, 267, 270, 273, 341, 342, 344, 345, 347, 353 Austria, 231, 274, 348, 353 authoritarianism, 128, 131 authorities, 40, 52, 116, 127, 133, 145 authority, viii, ix, 20, 25, 29, 34, 35, 36, 37, 54, 61, 63, 64, 79, 129, 132, 139, 143, 159, 164 automation, 246 autonomous, 269 autonomy, 128, 131, 142, 148, 149, 150, 152, 153, 154, 160 autoregressive model, 180 availability, 251 awareness, 2 Azerbaijan, 233, 277, 352 B backlash, 141 Bahrain, 230, 275, 349 balance of payments, 3, 9, 11, 106, 108, 237, 253, 254, 263, 267 balance sheet, 117 Balearic Islands, 181, 197, 199 ban, 160 bananas, 99 Bangladesh, 103, 231, 257, 274, 348 banking, 107, 108, 109, 110, 113, 132, 133, 134, 136, 142, 181 banking sector, 108, 132, 133, 134, 142 bankruptcies, 135, 142 bankruptcy, 282 banks, 18, 106, 107, 109, 110, 111, 132, 134, 252 Barbados, 181, 198, 232, 276, 350 bargaining, 67, 148, 204, 207, 210, 214, 215, 216, 217 barley, 87 barriers, 5, 79, 80, 83, 101, 160, 172, 244, 249, 272, 279

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Index base, xi, 3, 11, 14, 20, 22, 70, 86, 128, 132, 143, 147, 149, 153, 186, 187, 198, 202, 207, 236, 249, 253, 283 BD, 69 BDI, 231 BEA, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 beef, 75, 86, 87, 88, 170 behavior, x, 37, 105, 107, 108, 110, 111, 112, 114, 116, 117, 167, 173, 182, 233 behaviors, 228, 235, 240, 241, 264 Beijing, 159 Belarus, 233, 278, 352 Belgium, 230, 274 beliefs, 159, 160, 167, 169, 170 benchmark, 189, 190 beneficiaries, x, 85, 86, 97, 100, 101, 103 benefits, x, 15, 19, 20, 44, 49, 53, 55, 56, 62, 84, 85, 87, 97, 98, 101, 105, 106, 107, 114, 115, 118, 135, 136, 141, 145, 169, 244, 272 Bhagwati, 12, 14, 202, 221 Bhutan, 103, 231, 274, 348 Bhutto, Benazir, 165 bias, 196 Bible, 164 bilateral, 249 bilinear model, 180 Bin Laden, 162 binding, 28, 31, 218 bindings, 77 biological, 184 biology, 354 biomass, 240 biotechnology, 234, 235, 237, 262, 271, 283 biotic, 170 birth, 166, 168, 184, 241, 245, 280 birth control, 166 birth rate, 241, 245 birth rates, 241, 245 BIS, 109 black, 182, 271, 279 black hole, 279 black-box, 182 blame, 134 blocks, 130, 187 blood, 169 body, 153, 167 Bolivia, 92, 103, 232, 276, 350 bomb, 181 bond market, 132 bonding, 41, 45 bonds, 38, 39, 45, 132, 252, 253 BOP, 326, 332, 338 Boris Yeltsin, 160

borrowers, 106 borrowing, 106, 132, 133, 134 Bosnia, 232, 277, 351 Botswana, 231, 275, 349 bottom-up, 206 bounds, 68, 82, 83, 84, 92, 168 brain, 159, 181, 234, 235, 236, 238, 268, 281, 282, 283 Brazil, vii, ix, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 69, 76, 78, 80, 91, 92, 93, 99, 113, 114, 116, 119, 232, 238, 268, 269, 270, 273, 276, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347, 350 BRB, 232 breakdown, 144 breast, 181 breast cancer, 181 breeding, 164 Britain, 91, 166, 181 British, 222, 223, 225 bubbles, 197 Buddhism, 167, 177 budget deficit, 132, 133 Bulgaria, 92, 232, 277, 351 Bureau of Labor Statistics, 3, 7 Bureau of the Census, 7 bureaucracy, 130, 131, 155, 279 Burkina Faso, 77, 91, 94, 231, 275, 349 Burma, 231, 274, 348 Burundi, 231, 275, 349 Bush administration, 164 Bush, George W., 143 Bush, President, 51 business, xi, 179, 198, 201, 204, 220, 240, 241, 248, 249, 250, 253, 263, 264, 269, 281 business cycle, 10, 12, 240, 241, 250, 263, 264, 269 business ethics, 204 business function, 2 businesses, 10, 106, 159, 165, 282 buyers, 18 C CAE, 306, 323 California, 174, 175, 176, 222 Cambodia, 103, 274, 348 Cameroon, 231, 275, 349 Canada, 13, 30, 44, 47, 58, 89, 91, 92, 175, 203, 224, 230, 267, 270, 271, 273, 341, 342, 344, 345, 347, 354 Canberra, 13 cancer, 181 cancer cells, 181 candidates, 186

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Index

CAP, 230, 352 capacity, 182, 216, 236, 240, 246, 250, 251, 254, 272, 282, 283 Capacity, 316 capacity building, 76 capital, 199, 216, 241, 243, 244, 245, 246, 250, 253, 263 capital account, 106, 109, 115, 117, 132, 253 capital controls, 106, 115, 116 capital expenditure, 5 capital flows, 106, 107, 108, 109, 111, 116, 118 capital goods, 250 capital inflow, 108, 109, 112, 117 capital intensive, 6, 7 capital markets, 107, 108, 110, 115, 118, 132, 133, 199 capital mobility, 106, 115 capital outflow, 112 capitalism, 162, 171 Capitalism, 271 carbon, 42 Caribbean, 92, 98, 99, 102, 230, 232, 268, 270, 273, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347 cartoon, 282 case studies, 116 case study, 146, 197 cash, 38, 41, 45, 69, 85, 109 cast, 117 casting, 46 catalyst, 141 categorization, 217 Catholic, 159, 164 Catholics, 161 cattle, 87 CBO, 58, 59 CBP, 310, 311, 312, 313, 316, 323 CBT, 310, 323 CCC, 20, 23 CD, 322 CE, 322 cement, 46, 155 censorship, 171 Census, 3, 6, 7, 14, 166 Census Bureau, 3, 6, 7, 14, 166 Central America, 224 central bank, 252 Central Bank, 120, 121, 144 centralisation, 205 centralized, xi, 201, 217, 220 certainty, 67 certification, 56 CG, 243, 297, 301, 302, 323 CH4, 290

Chad, 77, 91, 94, 231, 275, 349 challenges, x, xi, 10, 53, 63, 93, 125, 129, 130, 139, 141, 144, 147, 152, 162, 201, 205, 283 changing environment, 234 channels, x, 105, 106, 108, 111, 113, 114, 118, 127, 130, 131, 139, 146, 150, 152, 153, 154, 211 chaos, 195, 196, 197, 198 chaotic, xi, 179, 197, 199, 200 checks and balances, 128 cheese, 272 chemicals, 42 Cheney, Dick, 46 Chicago, 123 CHILD, 332 children, 163, 166, 171 Chile, 48, 92, 116, 120, 121, 123, 232, 276, 350 China, viii, ix, 33, 34, 41, 43, 45, 47, 52, 53, 55, 59, 60, 64, 77, 78, 80, 91, 92, 99, 159, 160, 170, 172, 175, 181, 205, 220, 221, 222, 223, 225, 226, 228, 231, 238, 239, 244, 257, 262, 267, 269, 270, 271, 273, 274, 278, 279, 280, 341, 343, 344, 346, 347, 348 Chinese, 45, 52, 92, 160, 167, 221, 222, 238, 265, 267, 278, 279, 280 Chinese government, 160 Christianity, 159, 164, 165, 166, 167, 168, 176 Christians, 160, 161, 164, 167, 168, 172 circulation, 27, 228, 252 circumcision, 161 CIS, 230, 233, 268, 270, 273, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347 citizens, 171, 172 citizenship, 172, 269 City, 162, 173, 225 civic life, 163, 166 civil action, 141 civil rights, 173 civil society, 139, 141, 146, 148, 150, 154 civilization, 173, 233, 284 clarity, 5, 152 classes, 163 classical, 182, 196, 245, 246, 281 classical methods, 182 classification, 7, 11, 59, 116, 230 classified, 186, 247, 250 clean energy, 240, 247 climate, 133, 145, 158, 163, 228, 246 climate change, 228 climates, 228 cloning, 186 closure, 144 clothing, 170 clustering, 112

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Index clusters, 113 Co, 199, 224, 225, 230, 231, 232, 233, 280, 354 CO2, 244, 272, 289, 290, 291, 320, 321, 322, 323, 353, 354, 355 codes, 202, 203, 204, 205, 207, 209, 218, 219, 220 codes XE "codes" of conduct, 202, 203, 204, 205, 207, 209, 218, 219, 220 co-existence, 162, 168, 233, 240, 242, 284 coherence, 149 cohesion, 134 Cold War, 130, 135 collaboration, 20, 128, 130, 131, 132, 143, 146, 148, 152, 153, 154, 155, 163, 218, 234, 264 Collaboration, 222 collateral, 111, 133 collective bargaining, 204, 215 Colombia, 92, 103, 116, 232, 276, 350 colonial, 280 colonization, 158 color, iv Columbia University, 157, 175, 176 column vectors, 243 combustion, 170, 272 commerce, 55, 56 commercial, 65, 69, 81, 132, 154, 162 commercial bank, 132 commitment, 127, 129, 130, 133, 134, 140, 142, 161, 162 commodities, 18, 19, 66, 74, 85, 86, 87, 170, 237, 238, 249, 251 commodity, 19, 71, 82, 85, 86, 87, 88 Commodity Credit Corporation, 20 Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), 20 commodity markets, 85 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, 102 communalism, 162 communication, vii, 131, 139, 146, 150, 152, 153, 154, 158, 234 communist countries, viii, 33, 47, 55 communities, 53, 157, 159, 160, 162, 166, 169, 170, 173 community, 2, 3, 114, 134, 136, 142, 146, 162, 163, 165, 169, 171, 173, 174, 263 community conflict, 162 comparative advantage, 281, 282 compatibility, 100 compensation, viii, 11, 25, 26, 28, 48, 53, 242, 250, 251 competence, 138, 139, 155 competition, ix, 34, 35, 47, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 56, 61, 64, 65, 67, 68, 69, 76, 78, 80, 88, 92, 106, 117, 126, 127, 128, 142, 151, 172, 248, 281

competition policy, 78 competitive advantage, 127 competitive markets, 85 competitive need limitations, 101 competitiveness, 111, 113, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 139, 140, 142, 146, 147, 148, 152, 153, 155, 242, 249, 253, 278, 279 competitor, 18, 113 complement, 8, 189, 206 complementary, 205, 207 complexity, 41, 180, 183, 185 compliance, vii, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 28, 29, 40, 85, 214 components, 66, 127, 140, 252, 297, 302 composite, 194, 197, 234 composition, 27, 71, 116, 139, 146 computation, 38 computer, 158, 181, 185, 196, 228, 229, 234, 235, 237, 238, 253, 254, 281 computer science, 181, 196 Computer simulation, 238 computer simulations, 228 computer software, 253 computers, 198, 236 computing, 184 concentration, 5 conception, 127 conceptualization, 129, 130, 139 concrete, 65, 130, 138, 141, 158 conduct, 125 conductor, 272 conference, 44, 46, 93, 353 confession, 164 confidence, 134, 141, 145, 182, 189, 192 confidence interval, 182, 189, 192 confidence intervals, 182, 189 confidentiality, 4 configuration, 128, 138, 148, 149, 153 conflict, 129, 131, 135, 143, 148, 153, 154, 158, 160, 162, 171, 173, 353 conflict resolution, 129, 131, 148, 153, 353 conformity, 29, 81, 140 Confucianism, 159, 165, 167 Confucius, 167 Congo, 231, 232, 275, 349 Congress, iv, viii, ix, x, 2, 3, 20, 21, 22, 25, 26, 28, 29, 33, 34, 35, 37, 44, 45, 49, 51, 53, 56, 61, 62, 63, 64, 79, 97, 101, 160 Congressional Budget Office, 45, 46, 89, 94 Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 45, 46, 89, 94 conjecture, 126 Connecticut, 176 consciousness, 158, 164, 168, 229, 242, 269

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360

Index

consensus, xi, 9, 26, 27, 28, 131, 138, 148, 153, 155, 157, 165, 166, 168 consent, 133 consolidation, 128, 130, 138, 139, 140, 142, 145, 147, 148, 149, 150, 152, 153, 154, 155 constant prices, 237, 271, 273, 297 constitution, 137 constraints, xii, 126, 144, 227, 228, 247, 255 construction, 46, 132, 141, 144, 147, 152, 153, 155, 170, 182, 192, 214, 283 consulting, 30, 215 consumer goods, 42, 51 consumer price index, 249, 251 consumer taste, 202 consumers, 39, 46, 53, 164, 242 consumption, 73, 86, 87, 106, 107, 114, 115, 239, 240, 242, 243, 248, 250, 251, 263 consumption function, 250 context, 158 Continental, 59 continuing, 209 contract enforcement, 109 contracts, 217 control, 7, 27, 52, 130, 160, 161, 166, 213, 214, 252, 254, 309, 310, 353 controlled, 213 controversial, 44, 51, 64, 142 conviction, 163, 218 cooking, 163 cooling, 143 cooperation, 127, 146, 153, 228, 229, 234, 237, 246, 278, 279, 283 coordination, xii, 107, 118, 129, 144, 145, 227, 228, 234, 263, 279, 281, 283 Copenhagen, 13, 134, 140 copyright, iv Copyright, iv corn, 44, 87 corporate finance, 117 corporate governance, 117 corporate responsibility, 207 corporate restructuring, 129 corporate sector, 117 corporate-enterprise, xi, 201, 219, 220 corporate-global, xi, 201, 220 corporations, 106, 130, 143, 146, 148, 152, 170, 202, 203, 212 correlation, 190, 196, 197 correlations, 112 corruption, 101, 128, 135, 139 cosine, 184 cosmos, 167, 280

cost, 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 19, 46, 84, 107, 116, 186, 202, 241, 246, 247, 251, 253 Costa Rica, 92, 232, 276, 351 costs, 20, 49, 53, 132, 170, 242, 246, 247, 272, 279 cotton, vii, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 42, 63, 64, 65, 66, 76, 77, 78, 85, 87, 88, 91, 93, 94, 165, 170 country of origin, 43 coupling, 249 Court of Appeals, 59 coverage, 1, 11, 15 covering, 7, 51, 241, 264 CP, 243, 250, 260, 261, 293, 295, 296, 297, 301, 302, 324 CPI, 246, 249, 251, 252, 258, 259, 260, 261, 292, 294, 295, 296, 298, 299, 300, 301, 303, 308, 314, 324 CPS, 302, 303, 324 creative process, 173 creativity, 164 credibility, 135, 140, 235 credit, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 65, 68, 81, 85, 92, 106, 134, 136, 143, 181, 210, 252 creditors, 133, 134, 135, 142, 150 crimes, 173, 269 crises, x, 9, 105, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 126, 131, 132, 136, 137, 138, 140, 142, 143, 149, 170 crisis management, 142 criticism, 69, 163, 164, 207, 235 Croatia, 232, 277, 351 crop, 87 crops, 19, 83, 87 cross-country, 106, 110, 112, 116, 118, 247, 248 crowding out, 253 CRS, 22, 23, 30, 31, 57, 58, 59, 60, 71, 72, 74, 89, 91, 93, 94, 95, 102, 103, 254, 264 CSR, 204, 206 CTD, 310, 324 Cuba, 92, 233, 276, 351 cultural influence, 165 cultural tradition, 160 cultural values, 171 culture, xi, 157, 158, 160, 163, 169, 170, 173, 174, 214, 228, 229 curiosity, 164 currency, 9, 45, 108, 109, 111, 113, 117, 246, 251, 252, 278, 297, 315 current account, 4, 6, 11, 14, 15, 134, 140 current account deficit, 134 current balance, 253, 254, 263, 267 current prices, 237 curriculum, 173 customers, 208, 219

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Index Customs and Border Protection, 38, 58 Customs Service, 41, 45 cutback, 244 CVD, ix, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 51, 54, 57, 58, 59 cycles, 10, 12, 110, 115, 167, 240, 241, 250, 263, 264, 269 Cyprus, 141, 142, 232, 277, 351 Czech Republic, 232, 277, 352

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D DA, 238, 253 dairy, 87 damage, 166, 170 damages, iv, 44, 159, 170 Darwinism, 237 data base, 2, 297, 302 data collection, 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10 data processing, 237 data set, 7, 14 database, 94, 263 Data-Fusion, xi, 179, 194 death, 136, 142, 167, 170, 171, 241, 245 death penalty, 136, 171 death rate, 241, 245 debt, 106, 116, 117, 133, 135, 136, 142, 143, 145, 237, 252, 254, 279 decay, 128 decentralisation, 205, 217 decentralization, 202, 204, 205, 206, 217, 220 decentralized, xi, 201, 217 decision making, 179, 189, 196 decision-making process, 58 decisions, 2, 28, 37, 77, 112, 129, 140, 155 defects, 235 defense, 100, 168, 181, 246, 264 deficiencies, 26, 28, 134, 140 deficiency, 86, 189 deficit, 45, 134, 140, 252, 271, 279 Deficit Reduction Act, 20, 21, 46, 66 deficits, 110, 132, 133, 241, 242, 244, 253, 263, 267, 272 definition, 19, 57, 110, 185, 206, 291 deflator, 246, 250, 252, 254, 272 degradation, 139 degree, 183, 204, 234, 247, 252, 253, 262, 264, 268, 283 degrees of freedom, 212 delays, 182, 185, 187, 191 delivery, 7 demand, xi, 87, 88, 136, 164, 179, 180, 181, 187, 188, 190, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 213,

214, 216, 239, 240, 241, 244, 246, 247, 248, 250, 252, 253, 254, 282 democracy, 137, 139, 158, 171, 174 democratic consolidation, 128, 138, 139, 145, 155 democratization, 140, 141, 164, 172 denial, 171 Denmark, 13, 223, 230, 274, 348 density, 190 Department of Agriculture, 170 Department of Commerce, viii, 13, 14, 31, 33, 34, 36, 45, 54, 57 Department of Homeland Security, 58 Department of Labor, 56 dependent variable, 182, 185 deposits, 38, 39, 45, 252 depreciation, 11, 113, 278 depressed, 240 depression, 142, 241, 263, 272 depth, 106, 117, 131, 134, 146, 147, 196 deregulation, 115, 130, 150 derivatives, 15 desire, 128, 137, 138 desires, 165 destiny, 168, 234, 264, 269 destruction, 163, 170 detection, 181, 196 detection techniques, 196 deterministic, 191, 192, 195, 235 devaluation, 110, 111, 244, 249 developed countries, x, 5, 37, 63, 64, 66, 67, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 83, 85, 92, 97, 98, 100, 101, 102, 106, 108, 110, 203, 246, 249, 250, 251, 279 developed nations, 35 developing countries, x, 7, 21, 37, 62, 63, 65, 66, 67, 69, 72, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 82, 83, 85, 92, 93, 97, 98, 100, 101, 106, 107, 108, 111, 112, 115, 128, 130, 148, 155, 159, 172, 202, 203, 205, 207, 230, 241, 246, 248, 249, 250, 251, 253, 265, 279, 281 developing economies (DME), 230 developing nations, 35 development assistance, 98, 237, 249, 253 deviation, 66, 73, 98, 99 DFI, 250, 260, 295, 298, 324 Diamond, 108, 120 differential treatment, 37, 66, 79, 80 diffusion, 160, 279 digital divide, 233, 237, 241, 269 diplomacy, 127, 144 direct foreign investment, 109 direct investment, xii, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 14, 136, 139, 141, 142, 143, 145, 227, 228, 237, 238, 244, 249, 253, 267, 280

Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

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362

Index

direct payment, 82, 86, 87, 88 disappointment, 135 disaster, 169, 170, 171 disbursement, 46 discipline, 65, 108, 140, 142, 145 disclosure, 118 discount rate, 252 discourse, x, 125, 145 discrimination, 164, 171 disenchantment, 135 disequilibrium, 244, 279 disinflation, 133 dislocation, 135 displaced persons, 229, 234, 236, 271, 353 displacement, 65, 69, 81 disposable income, 250 disposition, 42 Dispute Panel, 27 Dispute Settlement Body, vii, 17, 21, 26, 30, 101, 103 Dispute Settlement Body (DSB), vii, 17, 21, 26 Dispute Settlement Understanding, viii, 25, 26, 30 Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU), viii, 25 disputes, 203, 216 dissatisfaction, viii, 25 distortions, ix, 45, 61, 115 distribution, 6, 52, 127, 128, 131, 132, 135, 190, 193, 237, 251, 253 distributive justice, 126, 129, 139, 146, 148, 152, 153 divergence, 143 diversification, 106, 108, 111, 146, 229, 248, 281, 282 diversity, 128, 131 division, 146, 152, 167, 185, 236, 281 division of labor, 152, 236, 281 DMA, 233 doctors, 166 DOD, 312, 313, 325 Doha, v, viii, ix, x, 20, 21, 25, 26, 29, 30, 35, 40, 58, 61, 62, 63, 64, 66, 67, 72, 77, 78, 79, 80, 82, 84, 85, 86, 89, 90, 91, 93, 94 domestic capital, 132 domestic credit, 110 domestic demand, 247, 282 domestic economy, 4, 10, 127, 128, 134, 138, 139, 141 domestic factors, 109, 110 domestic industry, 7, 34, 36, 39, 41, 44, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 53, 54, 58 domestic markets, vii, 1, 107, 108 domestic policy, 68, 130, 142 dominance, 202, 203, 205

Dominican Republic, 233, 277, 351 donations, 85 donor, 253 donors, 85 doors, 214, 244, 272 DOT, 252, 258, 259, 261, 262, 286, 296, 298, 299, 300, 301, 303, 308, 313, 316, 320, 328, 338 DP, 317, 325 draft, viii, 25, 26, 64, 65, 67, 80, 94 drawing, 147, 164 drought, 228 DSB, vii, 17, 21, 26, 27, 28, 31, 103 DSU, viii, 25, 26, 28, 29, 30 dumping, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 79, 80 duration, 37, 65, 109 duties, viii, ix, 33, 34, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 44, 46, 54, 55, 57, 78, 98, 165 duty-free treatment, 99, 101 dynamic environment, 195 dynamic systems, 237 dynamism, 149, 263 E EAC, 320 early warning, 229, 234, 236, 271, 353, 354 earth, xi, 157, 167, 170, 171 earthquakes, 133 East Asia, 110, 113, 115, 117, 122, 130, 159, 230, 231, 267, 270, 273, 341, 343, 344, 346, 347 East Timor, 103 Eastern Europe, 163, 171, 230, 232, 266, 268, 270, 273, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347 ecological, 228, 233 ecology, 171, 237, 281, 354 econometrics, 234, 237, 263 economic, 180, 182, 191, 199, 202, 228, 229, 235, 236, 237, 238, 240, 241, 242, 246, 248, 251, 263, 264, 265, 269, 271, 279, 280, 281, 283, 353, 354 economic activity, 129, 143, 146, 162 economic consequences, 85 economic development, xi, 91, 98, 115, 157, 159, 171, 228, 237, 241, 279, 354 economic disparity, 159, 174 economic downturn, 108, 136 economic fundamentals, 110, 111, 114 economic growth, 100, 106, 114, 127, 128, 132, 133, 138, 141, 148, 149, 240, 263, 264, 265, 271, 280, 353 economic growth rate, 240, 263, 264, 271, 280 economic institutions, 130 economic integration, 109, 147, 171 economic liberalization, 150

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Index economic performance, 280 economic policy, x, 125, 149 economic power, 238 economic problem, 236 economic reform, 134, 136, 137 economic reforms, 136, 137 economic relations, iv, 140 Economic Research Service, 94 economic stability, 138, 139, 140, 165 economic statistical standards, vii, 1, 11 economic systems, 236 economic theory, 2, 182, 237, 251 economics, 151, 181, 195, 233, 234, 235, 236, 237, 271, 281, 283 economies, 230, 240, 241, 242, 245, 246, 249, 250, 251, 254, 263, 264, 265 economies in transition XE "in transition" (EIT), 230 economy, xii, 227, 228, 229, 233, 238, 240, 241, 242, 246, 247, 248, 250, 252, 253, 262, 263, 264, 265, 269, 271, 272, 278, 279, 280, 281, 282, 283, 353, 354, 355 ecosystem, 169, 174, 240 Ecuador, 92, 103, 233, 277, 351 education, 130, 163, 165, 166, 173, 241, 245, 246, 279, 280 Education, 85, 165, 174, 175, 176, 177, 223, 272, 280 education expenditures, 245 educational opportunities, 165 educational system, 173 educators, 167 EEA, 313 effective exchange rate, 254 Egypt, 92, 231, 275, 349 Egyptian, 161 Einstein, 172, 173, 176 El Salvador, 92, 233, 277, 351 elders, 167 election, 137, 142, 161, 164, 187, 196 electoral coalition, 131, 139 emergence, 153 emergency, 47, 48, 55, 65, 69, 76, 78 emerging issues, 10, 12 emerging markets, 106, 110, 112, 113, 115, 134 emission, 289 emotional, 211 empirical studies, 202, 203 employees, 11, 208, 211, 242, 250, 251 employers, 216 employment, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 14, 35, 53, 135, 140, 241, 242, 246, 247, 253, 279, 283 employment levels, 14

employment opportunities, 135, 140, 241 Enabling Clause, x, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101 enemies, 160, 168, 169 energy, 131, 144, 146, 170, 234, 236, 237, 238, 239, 240, 244, 246, 247, 251, 262, 267, 269, 271, 272, 281, 353 energy constraint, 247 energy input, 246 energy supply, 239, 240, 247 enforcement, viii, 25, 109, 205 engagement, 129, 134 engineering, 134, 158, 180, 185, 188, 234, 235, 236, 237, 253 England, 160, 176, 199 enlargement, 265 Enlightenment, 174 enterprise, xi, 201, 202, 206, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 213, 214, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220 entertainment, 181 enthusiasm, 127, 145 entrepreneurial, 179 entrepreneurs, 131, 150 entropy, 196 environment, xii, 10, 109, 126, 127, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 139, 140, 148, 149, 151, 152, 154, 172, 173, 195, 208, 227, 228, 234, 237, 238, 241, 247, 248, 269, 282, 353 environmental, 235, 236, 237, 252 environmental conditions, 252 environmental issues, 236 environmental management, 10 environmental movement, 172 environmental policy, 10 environmental quality, 10, 11 environmental standards, 10 EPC, 289, 326 equal opportunity, 166 equality, 165, 166 Equatorial Guinea, 231, 275, 349 equilibrium, 112, 240 equipment, 7, 44, 250 equity, 107, 114, 164, 165 equity market, 114 Eritrea, 231, 275, 349 erosion, 76 ERS, 90 ES, 230, 352 ESP, 231 ESR, 289, 326 estimating, 11, 84, 255 Estonia, 278, 352 ethics, 204 Ethiopia, 231, 275, 349

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EU, ix, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 75, 77, 78, 80, 81, 82, 85, 90, 91, 93, 94, 126, 133, 134, 136, 137, 139, 140, 141, 144, 217, 230, 238, 240, 242, 245, 247, 250, 254, 265, 266, 269, 280, 292, 296, 303, 313, 314, 315, 320, 324, 326, 328, 330, 331, 332, 335 euro, 196 Euro, 144, 252, 267, 270, 341, 342, 344, 345 Europe, 139, 140, 144, 159, 164, 170, 171, 173, 205, 206, 207, 222, 223, 224, 225, 230, 232, 266, 267, 268, 270, 273, 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347 European, 202, 203, 204, 206, 208, 210, 215, 220, 222, 223, 224, 225, 230, 269, 353 European Commission, 31, 89, 230 European integration, 141 European market, 112 European Union, ix, 31, 43, 44, 51, 61, 62, 65, 98, 130, 134, 269 Eurostat, 15 evidence, 9, 10, 58, 107, 109, 110, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 147, 190 evil, 162, 163, 167, 168 evolution, 137, 142, 147, 185, 186, 192, 195, 200, 202, 248, 283 evolutionary, 185, 195, 196, 197 Evolutionary Neural Networks, xi, 179, 195 evolutionary process, 185 examinations, 40 exchange rate, ix, xii, 10, 34, 108, 111, 133, 197, 198, 227, 228, 237, 238, 242, 251, 252, 253, 254, 263, 278, 279, 314 exchange rate policy, 278 exchange rates, xii, 10, 197, 227, 228, 242, 251, 253, 254, 263, 279 exclusion, 56 executive branch, viii, 25 Executive Branch, 28, 29 exercise, 162, 191, 192, 194, 235, 238, 264, 267, 268, 283 exogenous, 304 expenditures, 4, 5, 14, 44, 57, 242, 243, 245, 246, 248, 249, 250, 251, 252, 264, 265, 279 expert, 210, 229, 237, 254 Expert System, 197 expert systems, 237 expertise, 150 exponential, 181, 196 export market, 54 export promotion, 150 export subsidies, ix, 18, 19, 37, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 76, 77, 78, 80, 81, 83, 84, 85, 87, 94 exporter, 18, 19, 38, 39, 40, 41, 58, 76

exporters, 18, 19, 35, 38, 39, 54, 66 exports, vii, 2, 3, 6, 14, 17, 18, 19, 21, 35, 39, 44, 45, 51, 63, 65, 66, 85, 86, 87, 243, 248, 249, 250, 251, 253, 254, 263, 279, 280, 282, 295 exposure, 107 expression, 137, 158, 170 external financing, 136 external influences, 132, 150 external shocks, 112, 116, 117, 118, 143 extraction, 112 extraordinary conditions, 149 eye, 195 eyes, 143, 219 F FA, 310, 326 fabric, x, 97, 101, 131, 135, 162, 167 factor cost, 7, 9 factories, 204 failure, 21, 129, 152, 153, 192 faith, 29, 159, 161, 163, 166, 167, 169 false, 240 families, 159, 169 family, 135, 159, 165, 167, 173 family system, 159 FAO, 269 Far East, 231 farm, viii, ix, x, 17, 18, 20, 21, 61, 62, 63, 79, 87, 88, 90, 91, 93, 95, 170 Farm Bill, 79 farm land, 88 farmers, 21, 170 FAS, 90 fasting, 164 fatigue, 159 fatwa, 162 faults, 235 FDI, 111, 116, 128, 130, 140, 228 FDI inflow, 111 fear, 4, 153, 171, 172, 209, 213 fears, 142, 172, 272 February, 354 federal courts, 31 federal government, 29 federal law, 28 fee, 272 feedback, 247, 282, 283 feelings, 161, 248 females, 280 fertility, 245 fertility rate, 245 Fiji, 172, 232, 274, 348

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Index finance, 9, 91, 129, 130, 132, 134, 142, 181, 188, 195, 237, 304, 305 financial, vii, x, xi, xii, 1, 4, 6, 9, 11, 15, 19, 20, 37, 54, 78, 100, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 125, 126, 127, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 148, 149, 150, 152, 154, 180, 189, 190, 195, 198, 199, 227, 228, 237, 241, 242, 244, 249, 250, 252, 253, 263 financial community, 134, 136 financial crises, 9, 107, 109, 110, 111, 114, 117, 126, 140, 143, 149 financial crisis, 9, 110, 135 financial data, 4 financial deepening, 115 financial development, 106, 114, 117 financial globalization, x, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 114, 116, 118, 132, 133 financial innovation, 252 financial instability, 109 financial institutions, xi, 106, 110, 117, 125, 126, 127, 133, 148, 152 financial intermediaries, 113, 117 financial loss, 189 financial markets, vii, x, 1, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 111, 113, 115, 116, 117, 118, 134, 136 financial resources, 136 financial sector, x, 105, 106, 107, 108, 113, 115, 117, 118, 132, 136, 142 financial support, 135, 136, 141, 154, 227 financial system, 106, 108, 109, 115, 117, 118 financial vulnerability, 110, 113 financing, 10, 19, 65, 69, 81, 108, 110, 111, 132, 136, 142 Finland, 113, 231, 274, 279, 348 firms, 5, 6, 7, 35, 56, 106, 107, 111, 113, 115, 117, 179, 204, 206, 209, 219 first dimension, 138 first generation, 144, 229 fiscal policy, 240, 242, 279 fish, 44 FISH, 332 fishing, 51 fitness, 187 flame, 251 flexibility, 27, 76, 83, 117, 205 floating, 278 floods, 228 flow, 253 flowers, 51 fluctuations, 133, 235, 240, 241, 242, 250, 251, 263, 264, 268, 269, 273, 283 focusing, 128, 206

food, 18, 65, 66, 68, 69, 76, 77, 81, 83, 85, 172, 236, 255 food products, 19 food security, 66, 77, 83 footwear, 51, 202 force, 26, 48, 108, 112, 114, 136, 141, 163, 166, 170, 214, 241, 245, 247 forced migration, 236, 271, 354 forecasting, xi, 179, 180, 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 187, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199, 234 forecasting XE "forecasting" model, 180, 199 foreign banks, 18, 107 foreign capital flows, 108, 118 foreign companies, 2, 3, 6, 7 foreign direct investment, xii, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 136, 139, 141, 142, 145, 227, 228, 237, 238, 244, 253, 267, 280 Foreign Direct Investment, 280 foreign exchange, ix, 34, 116, 133, 149, 237, 238, 251, 253, 254, 278, 279 foreign exchange market, 254 foreign investment, 109 foreign policy, 130, 136, 141, 143, 144 foreign travel, 253 forests, 242 forgetting, 163 formation, 125, 126, 132, 133, 134, 138, 142, 145, 149, 150, 152, 154, 214, 243, 244 formula, 65, 66, 72, 75, 82, 83, 101, 128, 139, 168, 174, 238, 243 fossil, 170 foundations, 137, 147, 163 FRA, 230, 258, 259, 292, 296 fragility, 109 fragments, 159 France, 69, 91, 160, 230, 258, 267, 270, 273, 274, 279, 341, 342, 344, 345, 347, 348 free goods, 101 free market economy, 129 free trade, 63, 98, 103, 158, 233, 281 free trade agreement, 63, 103 free trade area, 98 freedom, 139, 160, 171, 173, 212, 252 fruits, 75, 168 FUGI (Futures of Global Interdependence) global modeling XE "modeling" system, xii, 227, 228 funding, 54, 134 funds, 2, 44, 63, 111, 113, 135, 142, 144, 252, 253 fusion, 194, 196 futures, xii, 227, 228, 233, 234, 235, 241, 247, 262, 263, 264, 268, 269, 272, 279, 281, 282, 283, 284, 353

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fuzzy logic, 181, 195, 196

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G G-6, ix, 61, 62, 91 Gabon, 231, 275, 349 games, 248, 263, 281, 282 gas, 228, 244 GATT, viii, x, 25, 26, 37, 44, 47, 48, 78, 97, 98, 99, 100, 102, 269, 279 GCE, 305, 327 GDP, 2, 9, 84, 114, 237, 238, 241, 242, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 254, 255, 256, 258, 260, 262, 263, 265, 266, 267, 268, 270, 271, 272, 278, 279, 281, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 291, 292, 293, 294, 295, 296, 297, 298, 299, 300,랔301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 306, 307, 308, 309, 310, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 323, 325, 326, 327, 328, 330, 331, 335, 337, 338, 340 GDP deflator, 246, 252, 254, 272 GDP per capita, 245 GE, 297, 302, 304, 305, 306, 307, 327, 328 gender, 164, 165, 171 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, x, 26, 59, 78, 97, 98, 102 General Agreement on Trade in Services, 19 general education, 165 general election, 133, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 142 generalization, 183 Generalized System of Preferences, x, 97, 98, 102 generation, 145, 149, 151, 163, 186, 229, 237, 353 genetic, 181, 184, 185, 186, 192, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 283 genetic algorithms, 185, 197, 198 genetic information, 283 genetic programming, 181, 185, 192, 195, 197 Geneva, 13, 31, 220, 222, 352 genocide, 171 genome, 282 geography, 106 Georgia, 233, 278, 352 Germany, 91, 160, 181, 224, 231, 267, 270, 273, 274, 279, 341, 342, 344, 345, 347, 348 GH, 246, 255, 256, 257, 285, 292, 305, 307, 318, 319, 329 GIP, 306, 329 girls, 163 global climate change, 228 global competition, 126, 127, 128, 142 global economy, xii, 109, 118, 129, 138, 139, 146, 148, 151, 152, 153, 174, 227, 228, 230, 234, 235,

240, 242, 244, 247, 263, 267, 268, 269, 271, 278, 279, 280, 281, 282, 283 global imbalances XE "imbalances" / disparities, xii, 227, 228 global markets, 95, 127, 129, 139 global networks, 130 global prosperity, 158 global security, 161, 174 global syndromes, xii, 227, 228, 233, 236, 245 global trade, x, 62, 64, 84, 94, 129, 244, 278 global trade liberalization, 84, 94 global village, 169 global warming, 228, 244, 269, 272, 280 globalization, vii, x, xi, 3, 4, 5, 10, 12, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 112, 114, 115, 118, 125, 126, 127, 132, 133, 138, 141, 144, 151, 157, 158, 159, 160, 162, 164, 165, 166, 170, 172, 173, 174, 201, 220, 248, 269 Globalization, vii, x, 1, 13, 105, 107, 108, 110, 114, 119, 120, 121, 123, 125, 126, 129, 157, 158, 159, 162, 174, 175, 176, 220, 221, 222, 224, 225, 269, 354 globally interdependent trade XE "trade" system structures, 228 GNP, 132, 135 goals, 148, 168 God, 162, 166, 167, 169, 233 gold, 109, 112, 199 good deed, 167, 168 goods and services, 4, 5, 8, 14, 179, 243 governance, 117, 126, 127, 130, 137, 138, 139, 144, 155, 164, 205 government, viii, 10, 12, 18, 19, 33, 34, 36, 37, 39, 40, 45, 46, 52, 54, 58, 65, 78, 81, 87, 88, 106, 107, 108, 110, 115, 116, 117, 118, 127, 129, 132, 133, 134, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 149, 160, 161, 162, 163, 170, 172, 174, 204, 205, 237, 241, 243, 244, 245, 246, 248, 251, 252, 269, 272, 279, 305 government budget, 241 government expenditure, 245, 246, 252 government intervention, 115, 116 government procurement, 78 governments, 10, 106, 107, 110, 115, 117, 118, 127, 132, 137, 142, 145, 149, 161, 162, 172, 174, 204, 205 GPS, 305, 329 Grand National Assembly, 137 Great Britain, 166, 181 Great Depression, 122, 247, 269 Greece, 231, 274, 348 greed, 78, 136, 167, 169, 171, 174 Greenhouse, 353

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Index Greenland, 277, 351 Grenada, 233, 277, 351 gross domestic product, 2, 243, 245, 249, 250 group work, 162 grouping, 230, 247 groups, x, 14, 20, 36, 62, 67, 126, 128, 129, 132, 133, 135, 139, 146, 148, 149, 150, 152, 153, 154, 160, 161, 162, 166, 174, 204, 230, 235 growth, 1, 2, 3, 10, 100, 106, 110, 114, 115, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 132, 133, 138, 139, 141, 142, 146, 148, 149, 163, 172, 174, 193, 196, 240, 241, 242, 246, 247, 248, 252, 263, 264, 265, 267, 268, 269, 270, 271, 272, 278, 279, 280, 281, 283, 353, 354 growth rate, 2, 133, 142, 193, 240, 241, 242, 247, 248, 252, 263, 264, 265, 267, 268, 269, 270, 271, 272, 278, 279, 280, 281, 283 GTE, 305, 330 Guam, 232, 275, 348 Guatemala, 92, 233, 277, 351 guidelines, 27, 146 Guinea, 231, 232, 275, 276, 349, 350 Guyana, 233, 277, 351

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H HA, 321, 323, 324, 332, 339 Haiti, x, 97, 101, 233, 277, 351 handling, 235, 236, 253 happiness, 168 harm, 55, 57, 144, 158, 169, 174, 233 harmonization, vii, ix, 1, 61, 67, 82, 140, 141, 234, 280 harmony, 158, 169, 233 hazards, 129 health, 237, 241, 245, 269, 279, 354 health care, 237, 241, 269 healthcare, 246, 280 Heart, 170, 175 hedging, 10 heredity, 159 Hezbollah, 161 high risk, 272 high tech, 253 high-level, 236 high-tech, 281 Hiroshima, 279 historical trends, xii, 227, 228, 248 history, 4, 39, 136, 158, 161, 163, 165, 212, 213 HK, 64, 65, 66, 93 hogs, 87 holding company, 5 Holland, 184, 198

homogenisation, 202 Honda, 239 Honduras, 233, 277, 351 Hong Kong, x, 62, 63, 64, 65, 67, 75, 76, 77, 78, 91, 93, 94, 113, 159, 181, 194, 198, 231, 274, 348 hopelessness, 169 hormones, 30 host, 4, 5, 9, 160, 280 House, ix, 22, 33, 35, 36, 44, 45, 46, 47, 56, 58, 59, 67, 78, 94 House of Representatives, 35 households, 106 housing, 241, 243, 245, 246, 248, 250, 251, 252, 263 HRM, 221 hub, 146 human, xi, xii, 101, 127, 133, 139, 146, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 166, 167, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173, 174, 227, 228, 233, 234, 235, 236, 237, 238, 240, 241, 245, 247, 253, 264, 267, 268, 269, 280, 281, 282, 283, 284, 353, 354 human behavior, 228, 233, 235, 240, 253, 264 human body, 236 human brain, 235, 236, 238, 268, 281, 282, 283 human capital, 127 human experience, 167 human genome, 282 human health, 241, 354 human nature, 167 Human Resource Management, 221 human resources, 146, 267 human right, 101, 139, 158, 159, 161, 171, 172, 174, 234, 235, 236, 237, 241, 269, 353 human rights, 101, 139, 158, 159, 161, 171, 172, 174, 234, 235, 236, 237, 269, 353 human sciences, 236 human struggle, 158 humanity, xi, 157, 158, 167, 169 Hungary, 232, 277, 352, 353 hybrid, 101, 195, 199, 239, 272 hyperbolic, 184 hypothesis, 180, 190, 191, 192, 197 hypothesis test, 180 Hyundai, 239 I IB, 252, 300, 301, 302, 303, 306, 309, 315, 330 IBM, 229 ICC, 260, 295, 296, 304, 330 ice, 211, 228 Iceland, 92, 231, 274, 348 ideal, 129, 141, 147, 148, 152, 153, 154, 169 ideals, 139, 161, 165, 167, 173

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Index

ideas, 158, 162 identification, 29, 86 identity, 14, 143, 160, 162, 163, 297 ideology, 163, 169, 170 IFA, xi, 201, 202, 203, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220 IFAs, xi, 201, 202, 203, 204, 206, 207, 210, 211, 214, 215, 216, 218, 219, 220 illusion, 167 ILO, 203, 213, 322 image, 138, 143, 150, 181, 263, 283 images, 236, 240, 263, 283 imaging, 218 imbalances, xii, 10, 134, 140, 146, 227, 228, 278, 280 IMF, 11, 13, 15, 109, 118, 119, 120, 123, 127, 133, 134, 135, 136, 140, 142, 143, 144, 149, 150, 159, 203, 220, 230, 269, 312, 322 immigrants, 272 immortality, 168 immunity, 69 imperialism, 173 implementation, 22, 26, 28, 29, 37, 51, 53, 66, 69, 72, 79, 81, 82, 83, 93, 134, 144, 145, 149, 153, 203, 207, 213, 214, 215 import prices, xii, 227, 228, 237, 238, 249, 251, 263 import restrictions, 55 import substitution, 18, 37, 149, 248, 281 imported article, 48, 54 imported products, 18 imports, viii, ix, 2, 6, 8, 9, 14, 29, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 39, 40, 42, 44, 45, 47, 48, 49, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 60, 66, 73, 78, 83, 86, 98, 170, 242, 243, 244, 248, 249, 251, 253, 278, 279, 282, 316 imprisonment, 171 improvements, 3, 11, 80, 107, 138, 139, 180, 235 impulses, 158 in transition, 37, 151, 230, 246, 249, 250, 251, 254 inactive, 249 incentives, 5, 117, 136, 140, 141 inclusion, 180, 210, 213, 217 income, x, 5, 6, 9, 14, 54, 62, 77, 84, 87, 113, 133, 135, 138, 155, 170, 229, 237, 241, 242, 245, 246, 250, 251, 253, 271, 272, 273, 278, 280 income distribution, 237, 251 income effects, 84 income inequality, 133, 155 income tax, 5, 246, 250, 272 income transfers, 253 incomes, 272 increased access, 110 increased competition, 51, 106 incumbents, 117

independence, 160, 173, 191, 197 independent variable, 185 India, ix, 44, 61, 62, 64, 67, 76, 77, 78, 80, 91, 92, 99, 100, 101, 159, 160, 165, 166, 170, 173, 176, 177, 231, 238, 246, 267, 269, 270, 271, 273, 274, 280, 341, 343, 344, 346, 347, 348 indication, 38, 49 indicators, 110, 133, 236, 237, 255, 271 indices, 251 indigenous, 163, 172 individual development, 165 individualism, 161, 169, 170 individuals, 106, 173, 184, 186, 202, 205, 209 Indonesia, 92, 110, 112, 231, 267, 270, 273, 274, 341, 343, 344, 346, 347, 348 industrial, xi, 201, 203, 204, 205, 206, 207, 211, 214, 215, 216, 217, 220, 245, 247, 248 industrial relations, xi, 201, 203, 204, 205, 206, 207, 211, 214, 215, 216, 217, 220 industrial revolution, 170, 172, 245, 248 industrialization, 126, 138, 149 industrialized societies, 170 industries, viii, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 33, 34, 35, 38, 45, 46, 47, 52, 53, 126, 129, 139, 142, 146, 153, 166, 202 industry, viii, 3, 4, 5, 7, 20, 21, 22, 33, 34, 36, 37, 39, 41, 42, 44, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 117, 144, 179, 189, 196, 212, 224, 247, 248, 282 inequality, 127, 133, 139, 155, 158, 164, 166, 171 inferences, 8, 12, 147 infinite, 280 inflation, 9, 132, 133, 135, 136, 139, 242, 250, 252, 254 inflationary pressures, 240, 251, 278 influence, 130, 132, 145, 146, 147, 149, 151, 155, 159, 163, 169, 173 information exchange, 283 information technology, 106, 159, 228, 234, 235, 236, 237, 238, 246, 248, 250, 262, 271, 281 Information Technology, 267 infrastructure, 86, 107, 127, 128, 130, 132, 133, 138 ingredients, 146 inherited, 233, 281 initiation, 41, 49, 57, 150, 207 injure, 56 injury, iv, viii, 26, 33, 36, 38, 39, 40, 41, 47, 48, 49, 51, 52, 53, 54, 57, 59 injustice, 158, 167, 168, 174 innovation, 139, 215, 228, 238, 252, 265, 269, 271 input, 145 INS, 331 insight, 155

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Index inspiration, 185 instability, 133, 134, 136, 137, 143, 146, 149, 280 institutional change, 151, 154 institutional configurations, 148, 149 institutional innovations, 109 institutional reforms, 114, 117, 143, 145 institutions, xi, 106, 110, 111, 115, 117, 125, 126, 127, 130, 131, 132, 133, 142, 144, 146, 147, 148, 149, 150, 152, 153, 165, 167, 205, 229 instruction, 163 instruments, 10, 106, 107, 115, 129, 133 insurance, 4, 65, 81 Insurgency, 317 integration, vii, 6, 7, 106, 107, 109, 114, 115, 116, 117, 127, 129, 130, 134, 138, 139, 140, 141, 147, 148, 171 integrity, 128, 138, 140 intellectual property, 35, 55 intellectual property rights, 35 intelligence, 168, 181, 200, 235, 236 intensity, 131, 135 intent, 135 intentions, 20, 142, 145 interaction, 126, 128, 130, 150, 152, 154, 164 interdependence, vii, 1, 112, 128, 131, 148, 152, 153, 174, 230, 235, 237, 238, 239, 240, 242, 243, 244, 248, 353, 355 interdependent global economy, xii, 227, 228, 240, 242, 244, 247, 271, 280, 281 interest, xi, 127, 128, 129, 132, 133, 139, 146, 148, 151, 154, 157, 162, 166 interest groups, 129, 148, 154 interest rates, 81, 108, 117, 132, 133, 139, 237, 238, 240, 241, 250, 251, 252, 253, 254, 263 interference, 155 intermediaries, 113, 117, 235 internal combustion, 272 internalization, 131 international, xi, xii, 179, 198, 199, 203, 204, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 216, 220, 227, 228, 229, 237, 242, 248, 249, 251, 253, 263, 264, 269, 271, 278, 280, 281, 283, 353 international competition, 128, 151 international competitiveness, 113, 126, 127, 129, 130, 131, 148, 152, 153, 155, 278 international financial coordination, 107 international financial institutions, xi, 125, 126, 127, 133, 148, 152 international framework agreements, 203, 204, 205, 207, 211, 220 international framework agreements (IFAs), 203, 220

International Framework Agreements (IFAs XE "IFAs" ), xi, 201, 202 international markets, 263 International Monetary Fund, vii, 1, 10, 11, 109 international relations, 130 international standards, 11, 133 international trade, vii, ix, xii, 1, 10, 12, 21, 35, 53, 61, 79, 90, 113, 227, 228, 248, 263, 281, 283 International Trade, 223 International Trade Commission, viii, 33, 34, 36, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59 internationalism, 203 internationalization, 107, 127, 140 internet, 269 Internet, 158, 159, 160 interpretation, 8, 154, 164, 185 interval, 185, 192 intervention, 115, 116, 129, 149 interview, 147, 206 interviews, 206 intimidation, 172 intra-regional trade, 353 intuition, 237 inventions, 172 inventories, 248 investment, vii, xii, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 35, 58, 78, 80, 82, 101, 106, 107, 108, 109, 112, 128, 129, 133, 136, 139, 141, 142, 143, 145, 146, 155, 227, 228, 237, 238, 241, 243, 244, 246, 248, 250, 251, 253, 269, 280 investment incentive, 5 investments, 5, 6, 9, 10, 14, 108, 140, 146, 241, 249, 253, 263, 267 investors, 7, 106, 107, 108, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 116, 117, 134, 208, 218 invisible hand, 233 Iowa, 225 IP, 250, 251, 252, 261, 296, 297, 298, 300, 301, 302, 303, 304, 331 Iran, 161, 230, 275, 349 Iraq, 136, 143, 144, 164, 230, 264, 275, 349 Iraq War, 143, 144 Ireland, 113, 161, 217, 225, 231, 274, 348 iron, 42 irony, xi, 157, 162, 174 IS, 297, 331 Islam, 160, 161, 163, 165, 167, 168, 176 Islamic, 137, 138, 140, 143, 161, 162, 163, 167, 168 Islamic law, 161 islands, 282 isolation, 150 Israel, 92, 172, 230, 275, 349 issue focus, 150

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issues, iv, vii, viii, ix, xii, 3, 4, 10, 12, 18, 25, 26, 27, 29, 31, 35, 39, 61, 62, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 93, 94, 130, 134, 138, 141, 142, 145, 157, 158, 160, 166, 168, 169, 171, 181, 185, 204, 205, 206, 208, 210, 212, 213, 214, 220, 227, 228, 234, 235, 236,랔241, 244, 250, 252, 263, 272, 279 IT, 235, 267 ITA, 231, 292, 296 Italy, 91, 217, 231, 267, 270, 273, 274, 341, 343, 344, 346, 347, 348, 354 ITC, viii, 33, 34, 36, 37, 38, 39, 41, 42, 43, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 60 iteration, 187, 238, 244 Ivory Coast, 231, 276, 350

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J Jamaica, 233, 277, 351 Japan, ix, 43, 44, 61, 62, 64, 65, 68, 71, 76, 82, 85, 88, 91, 92, 119, 130, 165, 176, 181, 195, 227, 228, 230, 238, 240, 241, 242, 246, 247, 249, 250, 254, 255, 256, 257, 259, 260, 261, 265, 267, 270, 271, 272, 273, 278, 279, 280, 282, 341, 342, 344, 345, 347,랔352 Japanese, 198, 229, 234, 246, 249, 254, 262, 263, 264, 271, 272, 278, 279, 280, 282 jihad, 168 jobs, 4, 8, 9, 53, 165 JOR, 231 Jordan, 48, 231, 275, 349 judgment, 167, 237 judiciary, 31 jurisdiction, 118, 145 justice, 126, 127, 129, 130, 138, 139, 142, 143, 146, 147, 148, 152, 153, 155, 157, 160, 164, 166, 167, 171 justification, xi, 151, 157, 161 K Kazakhstan, 233, 240, 278, 352 Kenya, 231, 276, 350 Keynes, 242, 246, 247 Keynesian, 241, 246, 251 kidnapping, 171 kill, 162, 168 killing, 162, 171, 173 kinetic energy, 131 King, 106, 122, 173, 176, 193, 197 Kiribati, 103, 232, 275, 349 knowledge, 130 knowledge economy, 130

Korea, 43, 44, 63, 88, 92, 110, 120, 123, 172, 222, 223, 231, 256, 274, 348 Kosovo, 172 Kuwait, 231, 275, 349 Kyrgyzstan, 233, 278, 352 L labor, 5, 7, 128, 131, 149, 150, 152, 166, 202, 203, 237, 241, 245, 246, 251, 263, 280 labor force, 166, 241, 245, 247 labor force participation, 241 labor productivity, 241, 246, 280 labour, 202, 203, 204, 205, 207, 208, 215 land, 89, 159, 166, 228 landscape, 139, 145 language, 29, 46, 144, 147, 158, 165 languages, 238 large-scale, 237, 253 Latin America, 106, 108, 113, 114, 116, 122, 230, 232, 266, 268, 270, 273, 280, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347 Latvia, 278, 352 law, 205, 215 law enforcement, 205 laws, viii, ix, 5, 10, 12, 33, 34, 35, 37, 45, 46, 52, 53, 136, 151, 161, 163, 205 layoffs, 135 LCA, 232 LDCs, 66, 75, 76, 78, 83, 84, 92 lead, x, 5, 10, 43, 46, 105, 107, 108, 110, 113, 115, 117, 128, 133, 148, 161, 168, 170, 172, 189, 220, 267, 279 leadership, 20, 128, 138, 139, 140, 141, 160, 161, 173 Leahy, 204, 223 learning, 130, 141, 181, 182, 193, 195, 198, 283 learning process, 141, 182 Lebanon, 161, 231, 275, 349 legality, 29 legislation, ix, 18, 21, 31, 33, 34, 44, 45, 52, 53, 63, 79, 160, 204 lending, 63, 110 liberalism, 139 liberalization, 75, 79, 80, 84, 85, 92, 94, 98, 106, 107, 109, 110, 114, 115, 117, 132, 145, 150, 166, 245 liberation, 168 Liberia, 231, 276, 350 Libya, 231, 275, 349 LIFE, 323, 332 life expectancy, 241, 245, 280 life sciences, 236, 237

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Index lifestyle, 159, 170, 173 light, 6, 30, 126, 132, 147, 151, 152, 158, 233, 238, 241, 280, 281, 283 likelihood, 53, 108, 109, 110, 255 limitations, 238 linear, 180, 184, 191, 192, 193, 194, 243, 249 linear function, 180, 183, 184, 243 linear model, 180, 191 linear regression, 180 linkage, 111 links, x, 105, 107, 111, 112, 113, 135, 139, 162, 182, 206, 235, 283 liquidity, 107, 109, 111 listening, 90 literacy, 165 literature, x, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 114, 116, 125, 127, 147, 180, 181, 183, 184, 185, 188, 192, 194, 196, 204 Lithuania, 233, 278, 352 litigation, x, 62, 63, 67, 68 livestock, 87 Livestock, 87 living conditions, 142, 166 living standard, 128, 138, 159, 241 living standards, 128, 138, 159, 241 loans, 4 local authorities, 116, 145 local government, 138 location, 5, 106, 130, 136, 143, 210 locus, xi, 138, 145, 155, 201, 202, 204, 205, 217, 219, 220 London, 175, 176, 177, 198, 199, 221, 222, 223, 354 long period, 217 long run, 145 long-term, 229, 234, 250, 252 long-term bond, 252 long-term impact, 143 Louisiana, 41, 58 love, 166, 169 lower prices, 21, 34 Luxembourg, 231, 271, 274, 348 Lyapunov, 196, 197 Lyapunov exponent, 196 M M1, 252, 302, 332 Macau, 231, 274, 348 Macedonia, 232, 277, 351 macroeconomic, 5, 110, 113, 127, 132, 133, 138, 139, 142, 145, 146, 148, 149, 150, 151, 152, 154, 353 macroeconomic environment, 133

macroeconomic management, 138, 149, 151, 154 macroeconomic policies, 154 macroeconomic policy, 148, 150, 152 macroeconomics, 353 Madison, 197 magnitude, 111, 132, 199 majority, 42, 49, 69, 100, 137, 142, 182, 187, 189, 196 Malaysia, 63, 91, 92, 93, 110, 112, 113, 231, 273, 274, 347, 348 Malta, 232, 277, 351 man, 168 management, 10, 14, 115, 117, 118, 127, 133, 136, 138, 142, 143, 149, 151, 154, 206, 208, 209, 211, 218, 219, 251, 253, 269, 282 management practices, 10 mandates, 10, 29, 217 manipulation, ix, 34, 45, 53, 151, 155 manufacturer, 8 manufacturing, 5, 6, 7, 14, 42, 44, 46, 53, 170, 247, 282 mapping, 187 mares, 269 marginalization, xi, 125, 147, 149, 150, 151, 152, 154 Mariana Islands, 102 market, ix, xi, xii, 4, 5, 7, 9, 18, 19, 34, 37, 38, 40, 44, 45, 47, 52, 54, 55, 58, 59, 61, 62, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 73, 76, 77, 78, 80, 83, 84, 86, 87, 88, 91, 92, 101, 106, 107, 108, 110, 111, 112, 114, 115, 116, 127, 129, 131, 132, 138, 139, 141, 144, 149, 150, 151, 157, 169, 174, 216, 227, 228, 230, 238, 240, 241, 242, 243, 245, 246, 248, 249, 250, 251, 253, 254, 263, 264, 269, 279, 281, 282 market access, ix, 7, 9, 55, 61, 62, 64, 66, 67, 68, 69, 73, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 83, 84, 86, 91, 101 market discipline, 107, 108 market economy, 37, 40, 45, 58, 59, 129, 138, 139, 263, 269 market failure, 151 market opening, 62 market prices, xii, 4, 19, 227, 228, 238, 242, 243, 263 market share, 106 market value, 34, 44, 54 marketing, 18, 19, 22, 86 markets, 4, 5, 7, 9, 54, 87, 106, 107, 108, 110, 111, 112, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 125, 127, 129, 130, 132, 133, 134, 136, 139, 142, 146, 272 Marshall Islands, 102 Martinique, 233, 277, 351 Marx, 263 Maryland, 119, 176

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Index

mass, 136, 158, 171, 172, 207 mass media, 207 Massachusetts, 122, 123 materialism, 161 materials, 7, 262, 271 mathematical, 185, 186, 187, 194, 238, 243, 244 mathematics, 238, 243 matrix, 174, 238, 243, 244, 249, 250, 251, 253 MATRIX, 320, 321, 341, 342, 344, 345 matter, iv, vii, xii, 8, 17, 111, 140, 160, 161, 162, 163, 196, 218, 227, 228, 238, 241, 248, 249, 251, 264, 272 Mauritania, 232, 276, 350 Mauritius, 92, 232, 276, 350 measurement, 4, 11, 12 measures, x, 6, 11, 19, 28, 29, 35, 37, 40, 45, 47, 51, 53, 54, 65, 68, 79, 80, 81, 82, 84, 97, 98, 106, 115, 116, 117, 134, 135, 150, 155, 187, 242, 244, 282 meat, 42, 87, 170 media, 38, 136, 165, 207, 208, 218 medicine, 181 Mediterranean, 230, 232, 268, 270, 273, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347 melt, 228 membership, ix, 18, 61, 133, 136, 140, 141 men, 163, 165 merchandise, viii, ix, 33, 36, 38, 39, 40, 41, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 51, 52, 54, 60, 302 mergers, 129 methodological procedures, xi, 179 methodology, 196, 234, 235, 236, 282 Mexico, 13, 47, 80, 91, 92, 113, 123, 223, 233, 268, 270, 271, 277, 342, 343, 345, 346, 351 middle class, 159, 170 Middle East, 144, 161, 163, 230, 267, 270, 273, 341, 343, 344, 346, 347 migrants, 172 migration, 106, 107, 158, 165, 166, 172, 236, 271, 354 militant, 137, 161, 163 military, 126, 129, 130, 131, 136, 141, 143, 145, 149, 154, 162, 172, 271 military aid, 143 milk, 85, 87 Millennium, 176 minorities, 160, 166 mission, 144, 159 missions, 244, 272, 353, 355 misuse, 35 MIT, 198, 221 MLT, 232 mobility, 106, 133

modeling, xii, 2, 197, 227, 228, 229, 230, 233, 234, 235, 236, 237, 238, 240, 241, 243, 244, 249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 254, 263, 264, 266, 268, 270, 278, 280, 281, 282, 283, 352 modelling, 180, 181, 185, 193, 196, 198, 199, 353, 355 models, 127, 130, 147, 148, 167, 171, 180, 181, 188, 195, 198, 200, 229, 234, 235, 236, 237, 250, 254, 264, 283, 353, 354 modern society, 171 modernism, 164 modernization, 2, 140, 150, 158, 170 modifications, viii, ix, 17, 20, 34, 35 Moldova, 233, 278, 352 momentum, 133, 136, 138, 140, 141, 144, 146, 153, 193, 209 monetary policy, 247 money, 44, 46, 114, 163, 233, 237, 238, 240, 252, 253, 263, 269, 273 money markets, 114 money supply, 252 Mongolia, 228, 231, 274, 348 monitoring, 144 monopoly, 65 monopoly power, 65 monsoon, 228 Montenegro, 232, 277, 351 mood, 138 moral hazard, 107, 108, 115, 116 morning, 162 Morocco, 231, 275, 349 mortality, 245 Moscow, 224 mothers, 166 motion, 46 motivation, 151 motives, 161, 203 movement, xi, 67, 111, 131, 136, 137, 138, 143, 161, 165, 171, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 219, 220, 242 Mozambique, 232, 276, 350 MS, 249 multilateral, 249, 253 multinational companies, 2, 4 multinational corporations, vii, 1, 130, 146, 148, 152 multiple regression, 181, 196 multiplication, 185 multiplier, 244 multiplier effect, 244 multivariate, 180 multivariate analysis, 180 mushrooms, 42, 51 music, 159, 163

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Index Muslim, 135, 143, 160, 161, 162, 163, 167 Muslims, 160, 161, 162, 163, 168, 172, 175 mutation, 185, 186, 187 Myanmar, 231, 274, 348

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N NAFTA, 37, 47, 48, 159, 271, 320 NAM, 232 Namibia, 232, 276, 350 nanotechnology, 262, 271 narcotic, 83 nation, x, 48, 97, 98, 101, 125, 126, 128, 135, 151, 159, 160, 162, 169, 171, 172, 209, 216, 264 nation states, 126, 216 national, xi, xii, 181, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 207, 209, 210, 211, 214, 215, 216, 217, 219, 220, 221, 227, 228, 229, 237, 264, 297, 302, 315, 353 national character, 170 national economies, 353 national identity, 162, 163 national product, 165 National Science Foundation, 6 national security, 49, 55, 56 nationalism, 138, 160, 169 nationalists, 160, 162 nationality, 171 NATO, 199 natural, 180, 185, 195, 198, 228 natural disaster, 228 natural disasters, 228 natural science, 195 natural sciences, 195 natural selection, 185, 198 Nauru, 232, 275, 349 NCL, 232 needs, 131, 135, 139, 174 needy, 164, 166 neglect, 128, 204 negotiating, viii, x, 25, 35, 62, 63, 64, 67, 68, 77, 78, 79, 80, 86, 94, 212 negotiation, 140, 202, 203, 205, 209, 211, 212, 213, 215 Nelson Mandela, 164 Neoliberal, 125 neoliberalism, 151 Nepal, 103, 231, 274, 348 nerve, 282 nerve cells, 282 nervous system, 181 Netherlands, 199, 231, 233, 274, 277, 348, 351 network, xi, 9, 125, 159, 162, 181, 182, 183, 192, 193, 195, 196, 198, 210, 283

neural network, 181, 182, 183, 185, 192, 193, 195, 196, 197, 198, 200 neural networks, 181, 182, 185, 192, 193, 195, 196, 197, 200 neurons, 182, 184, 282, 283 New Frontier, 354 New Jersey, 176 New York, iv, 13, 57, 89, 114, 157, 162, 164, 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 199, 221, 222, 225, 238, 269, 352, 354 New Zealand, 92, 230, 273, 347 Newtonian, 235, 237 next generation, 186, 187 NGO, 203, 207, 221, 222, 223, 224, 225, 337 NGOs, 128, 130, 154, 204, 205, 207, 218, 219, 221, 222, 225, 242 NIC, 232 Nicaragua, 232, 277, 351 Niger, 232, 276, 350 Nigeria, 92, 232, 240, 276, 350 nightmares, 263, 279, 280 Nike, 207 NO, 321, 323, 331, 332, 334, 338, 339 nodes, 182, 193 noise, 182, 192, 193, 198 non-binding, 202 nonlinear, 180, 195, 197, 199, 235, 247, 250 non-linear, 180 non-linear, 182 non-linear, 183 non-linear, 183 non-linear, 184 non-linear, 192 non-linear, 194 non-linear, 197 non-linear, 198 non-linear, 238 non-linear, 244 non-linear, 249 nonlinearities, 180 non-linearities, 198 non-linearity, 182, 183 nonparametric, 198, 199 non-tariff barriers, 79, 244, 249, 272, 279 normal, 190, 191, 208, 278 normal distribution, 190 North Africa, 230, 231, 268, 270, 273, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347 North America, 13, 37, 230, 267, 270, 271, 273, 341, 342, 344, 345, 347 North American Free Trade Agreement, 37, 271 North Korea, 172 Northern Ireland, 161

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Norway, 76, 92, 231, 274, 348 NPL, 231 NTE, 55 nuclear, 239, 240, 272 nuclear power, 239, 240, 272 nuclear power plant, 239, 240, 272 nuclear weapons, 172 null, 190, 191, 192, 195 null hypothesis, 190, 191, 192 NYMEX, 238

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O objective criteria, 101 obligation, x, 29, 47, 97, 98, 100 observations, 147, 182, 186, 193, 196, 206 obsolete, 215 obstacles, 167, 174 ODS, 312 OECD, vii, 1, 253, 269, 320, 322, 353 Office of the United States Trade Representative, viii, 25, 30 Official Development Assistance, 228, 253, 278 officials, ix, 61, 63, 154, 167 offshore, 202 OH, 353 oil, xii, 42, 111, 170, 227, 228, 238, 239, 240, 242, 246, 247, 251, 263, 267, 269, 271, 272, 353 oil exporting, 251, 267, 272 oil production, 247 oilseed, 87 old-fashioned, 235 Oman, 231, 275, 349 OPEC, 240, 353 open economy, 108 operating costs, 20 operating data, 11, 15 operating system, 240 operations, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 14, 203, 207, 210, 211, 213 operator, 186, 187 opportunities, x, 11, 105, 107, 118, 125, 126, 129, 130, 133, 135, 140, 141, 143, 144, 152, 164, 165, 170, 241, 248, 281 oppression, 158, 271 optimism, 134 optimization, 180, 185 optimization method, 180 OR, 321, 327, 330, 338, 340 orbit, xii, 227, 229, 234, 269, 283 organic, 236, 248, 282 organization, 107, 138, 141, 143, 153, 155, 164, 206, 210, 212, 234

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 12 organizations, vii, 1, 4, 11, 15, 81, 128, 130, 141, 146, 158, 159, 207, 212, 249, 269 organize, 4 organized crime, 269 organized labor, 7, 131, 149, 150 orientation, 160, 236 Osama bin Laden, 162, 176 Ottawa, 354 outline, 129 outreach, 90, 95 outsourcing, 53, 202 overseas investment, 5, 6 oversight, 35, 67 ownership, 3, 6, 11, 14, 154, 214 oysters, 44 ozone, 170 P Pacific, 98, 99, 102, 222, 230, 232, 265, 267, 270, 273, 282, 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347 pacifism, 169 Pakistan, 92, 99, 165, 231, 274, 348 Pakistani, 160 Palestine, 161, 172 PAN, 232 Panama, 232, 277, 351 Paper, 197, 354 Papua New Guinea, 232, 275, 349 paradox, 279 Paraguay, 92, 99, 232, 277, 351 parallel, 7, 65, 68, 69, 81, 147, 205, 207 parameter, 180 parents, 2, 6, 8, 167, 187 Paris, 352 participants, 67, 90, 105, 112, 116 particle physics, 237 partnership, 143, 222, 223 partnerships, 127, 130 pasta, 42 pathways, 129, 130 pattern recognition, 197, 235, 241, 282 payroll, 14 PCP, 299, 301, 334 PDP, 254 PE, 301, 313, 334 peace, 19, 63, 68, 135, 136, 143, 157, 159, 162, 166, 169, 170, 171, 174, 234, 235, 236, 237, 241, 269, 271, 280, 353 pegging, 45 penalties, 44, 51, 140

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Index Pentagon, 162 PER, 232, 313, 321, 323, 324, 325, 326, 327, 328, 329, 330, 331, 332, 334, 335, 336, 338, 339, 340 per capita, 245, 247, 248, 271, 272, 273, 278, 289 per capita income, 135, 248, 271, 272, 273, 278 perception, 209 performance, 127, 132, 135, 154, 155, 188, 198, 267 periodicity, 182, 188, 193 permission, iv, 163, 169 permit, 14, 20, 69 personal, 139, 229, 237, 238, 254, 272 personal computers, 237 perspective, 128, 138, 154 Peru, 92, 103, 232, 277, 351 PES, 249, 251, 260, 262, 286, 293, 294, 295, 297, 298, 299, 300, 301, 310, 335 petroleum, 42, 246 pH, 290, 322 pharmaceuticals, 42 Philadelphia, 222 Philippines, 92, 231, 273, 274, 347, 348 philosophy, 233 physical environment, 127 physics, 237 physiology, 191, 234, 236, 282 planning, 125, 144, 146, 147, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 179 plants, 239, 240, 272 play, 210, 238, 241, 242, 246, 253, 263, 269, 280, 282 playing, 78, 132 pluralism, 128, 131 PLUS, 320 PM, 259, 299, 301, 304, 335 PMS, 249, 251, 257, 262, 286, 292, 293, 295, 297, 298, 301, 335 PNG, 232, 312 Poland, 59, 163, 232, 277, 352 polar, 160 policy, vii, ix, x, xii, 1, 2, 3, 10, 13, 20, 55, 56, 61, 62, 63, 68, 78, 79, 80, 84, 85, 87, 90, 92, 93, 103, 107, 114, 115, 118, 125, 126, 127, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 136, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 148, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 155, 161, 166, 207, 227, 228, 229, 230, 234, 236, 237, 240, 241, 242, 243, 244, 245, 247, 248, 252, 263, 264, 269, 272, 278, 279, 281, 282, 283, 353 policy choice, 252 policy instruments, 118, 129, 133 policy makers, x, 2, 107, 125, 127, 130, 131, 142, 143, 146, 148, 149, 152, 154, 228 policy making, x, 125, 132, 139, 140, 145, 149, 154, 155

policy options, 107, 115, 148 policy reform, ix, 61, 68, 79, 85, 87, 92 policy responses, 152 policymakers, x, 2, 3, 4, 12, 105, 107, 115, 116, 118 political, 216 political force, 138, 166 political instability, 133, 134, 137, 149 political legitimacy, 131, 134, 138 political participation, 165 political parties, 133, 135, 137, 138, 139, 145, 146 political party, 135, 140, 143 political power, 136, 163, 216 political system, 134, 135 politics, 132, 134, 137, 143, 148, 154, 160, 161, 163, 165 pollution, 10 Polynesia, 232, 274, 348 poor, 77, 137, 145, 154, 166, 174, 233, 240, 241, 271, 272, 280, 282 population, 129, 136, 142, 160, 170, 171, 174, 185, 186, 187, 236, 237, 241, 245, 269, 272, 354 population growth, 272, 354 populism, 133 pork, 88 portfolio, 109, 111, 113, 116, 253 portfolio investment, 253 portfolios, 111 Portugal, 113, 231, 274, 348 posture, 76 potential benefits, x, 105, 107, 114, 118 poultry, 75, 87 poverty, xi, 127, 138, 142, 155, 157, 158, 166, 170, 171, 174, 229, 241, 269, 271, 280 poverty alleviation, 138 poverty line, 142 power, 49, 128, 130, 132, 136, 137, 149, 151, 159, 160, 163, 167, 170, 173, 182, 193, 202, 205, 215, 217, 242, 269, 282 power plants, 239, 240, 272 powers, 238, 271 PPM, 321, 323 PPP, 254, 315, 319, 327, 328, 331 pragmatism, 140 predictability, 67, 199 prediction, 180, 183, 188, 189, 190, 191, 194, 197, 198, 199 predictive accuracy, 194, 197 predictive model, 185 predictive validity, 193 predictors, 189 preference, x, 48, 76, 97, 98, 100, 103 preferential treatment, 101 prejudice, 19

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Index

premiums, 69 preparation, iv, 67, 80, 145, 146, 167 preservation, 35 President, viii, ix, 25, 29, 33, 35, 36, 37, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 61, 63, 64, 79, 101, 135, 160, 172 President Bush, 51 pressure, ix, 4, 61, 63, 69, 107, 111, 133, 134, 146, 150, 160, 170, 202, 203, 207, 208, 213, 218 pressure groups, 146 prestige, 151 PRI, 232 price changes, 111 price deflator, 250 price index, 249, 251 prices, xii, 9, 19, 21, 34, 40, 44, 46, 70, 78, 83, 87, 88, 107, 111, 113, 197, 227, 228, 237, 238, 240, 242, 243, 244, 246, 247, 248, 249, 251, 252, 254, 263, 267, 268, 272, 278, 281, 291 prima facie, 29 prime rate, 250, 252 principle, 140, 168, 173 principles, 45, 67, 128, 138, 143, 154, 161, 162, 167, 173, 216, 263 printing, 254 prior knowledge, 38 private, xii, 227, 228, 237, 238, 242, 243, 244, 248, 249, 250, 251, 253, 263, 267, 280 private banks, 134 private enterprises, 263 private sector, 129, 130, 146, 148, 150, 154, 263 privatization, 130, 134, 136, 139, 150, 166 PRK, 231 probability, 108, 109, 112, 114, 116, 191 procedures, 184 producers, 20, 34, 36, 41, 44, 51, 53, 54, 57, 77, 87, 88, 170, 251, 272 production, viii, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 14, 21, 33, 36, 53, 54, 57, 60, 68, 82, 83, 86, 92, 99, 100, 115, 129, 130, 145, 147, 158, 170, 202, 204, 205, 208, 237, 238, 245, 246, 247, 248, 250, 297 production function, 245, 246, 248 production networks, 129 productive capacity, 133 productivity, 6, 9, 165, 172, 241, 245, 246, 251 productivity growth, 246 profit, 233, 237, 240, 241, 253, 263 profitability, 89 profits, 9, 53, 278, 282 program, vii, viii, 2, 4, 13, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 66, 80, 85, 87, 88, 95, 103, 133, 134, 135, 136, 138, 142, 143, 145, 181, 185, 186, 196, 197

programming, 181, 185, 186, 192, 195, 197, 198, 238 programming languages, 238 prohibited subsidies, 18, 19, 21, 37 project, 3, 7, 15, 131, 150, 155, 229 proliferation, 5 promote, xii, 14, 117, 127, 131, 151, 174, 202, 207, 227, 228, 234, 269, 283 propagation, 159, 181, 182, 198 property rights, 35 proposition, 128, 153 prosperity, 158 protection, 19, 55, 68, 73, 75, 85, 86, 139, 248, 282 protectionism, 127, 281 Protestants, 161 PRT, 231, 296 prudence, 131 PSI, 317, 336 psychological, 264 psychologist, 173 PT, 339 public, 229 public administration, 145, 149 public debt, 145 public finance, 142, 149 public interest, 39, 40 public investment, 146, 155 public life, 166 public opinion, 133, 138 public policy, 148, 149, 150, 154 public sector, 132 public service, 130, 166 public services, 166 public support, 133 public-private partnerships, 127, 130 Puerto Rico, 232, 277, 351 punishment, 163 PVP, 82 Q Qatar, 231, 275, 349 QOL, 319 quality of life, 127, 236, 241 questioning, 135, 150 questionnaires, 10 quota free, 63, 66, 75 quotas, 50, 66, 69, 73, 78, 84, 86, 99 R R&D, 279 race, 10, 171, 172, 229

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Index radicals, 162 RandD, 241, 242, 244, 245, 246, 263, 265, 269, 278, 279 RandD investments, 140 random, 185, 187, 191, 192, 195, 197 range, ix, 61, 69, 75, 77, 83, 106, 131, 139, 144, 145, 147, 157, 182, 189, 235 rash, 240, 269 rationality, 150, 151 RAW, 334 raw materials, 7 RC, 336 reading, 100, 197 real estate, 88 real numbers, 185 real terms, 135, 263 reality, 164, 234, 235, 236, 251, 281, 283 reasoning, 281 recession, 269, 270, 271, 272 reclamation, 242 recognition, 10, 15, 136, 165, 181, 197, 210, 211, 213, 215, 216, 218, 234, 235, 241, 282 recommendations, iv, viii, 18, 28, 33, 44, 48, 49, 51, 52, 115, 129 reconcile, 80, 133, 169 reconciliation, 15, 36, 45, 46, 58, 59, 66, 131 reconstruction, 130, 143, 145 recovery, 56, 133, 134, 136, 142 recreation, 129 recycling, 233, 247, 281, 284 redistribution, 133, 143, 153 reduction, 48, 49, 63, 65, 67, 72, 76, 77, 80, 83, 87, 88, 133, 134, 242, 354 reflection, 140, 264 reform, ix, 26, 28, 61, 64, 67, 68, 79, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 92, 93, 117, 126, 127, 128, 133, 134, 135, 136, 137, 140, 141, 145 Reform, 45, 60, 71, 74, 85, 89, 121, 145, 175, 221, 226 reforms, 68, 82, 85, 88, 115, 117, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139, 140, 142, 144, 145 refugees, 171, 229, 262, 271, 272 regional, x, xii, 63, 83, 108, 111, 125, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 140, 141, 146, 148, 155, 217, 227, 228, 229, 230, 236, 237, 247, 250 regional economies, vii regional integration, 130 regression, 180, 181, 185, 196, 197, 198 regression equation, 196 regular, 209 regulation, 118, 127, 128, 132, 134, 145 regulations, 98, 135, 213 regulatory framework, 127

regulatory systems, 106 rejection, 144 relationship, 8, 100, 142, 158, 210, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220, 233, 284 relationships, 126, 127, 129, 130, 167, 169, 194, 204, 228, 230, 235, 242, 244, 247, 249, 263, 280, 281 relevance, 125 reliability, 148 relief, viii, 33, 34, 37, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52 religion, 159, 160, 161, 162, 163, 165, 167, 174, 229 religions, 280 religious beliefs, 159, 169, 170 religious groups, 174 religious traditions, 166 remedial actions, 36 renewable energy, 272 rent, 133 reproduction, 184, 186, 187 Republican, 135, 137, 149, 153 reputation, 210 requirements, ix, 35, 37, 61, 63, 79, 81, 98, 99, 101, 132, 144, 149, 150, 151, 240, 353 RES, 299 research, xi, 179, 181, 193, 195, 196, 199, 202, 203, 204, 219, 220, 227, 234, 236, 237, 246, 249, 250, 264, 265, 279, 283 research and development, 246, 249, 250, 264, 265, 279 research institutions, 146 researchers, 3, 4, 189, 192, 195, 196, 203, 204, 237 resentment, 137 reserves, 29, 37, 111, 117, 247, 251, 279 residuals, 191 resilience, 131 resistance, 36, 134, 141, 142, 143, 144, 269 resolution, viii, 25, 26, 29, 44, 49, 55, 129, 131, 143, 148, 153, 353 resources, 5, 10, 15, 47, 133, 136, 143, 146, 148, 153, 216, 233, 239, 240, 247, 267, 279, 281, 284 response, 3, 18, 20, 21, 85, 87, 91, 108, 127, 135, 169, 202, 247, 252 responsibilities, 209, 218 responsibility, 135, 144, 145, 155, 170 restaurants, 179 restrictions, 54, 55, 78, 98, 99, 106, 108, 166, 247, 252 restructuring, xi, 125, 129, 132, 133, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 149, 152, 154 retaliation, vii, viii, 17, 19, 20, 21, 25, 26, 28, 29, 44, 51 retaliatory action, 29 retention, 130 returns, 87, 88, 107, 112, 199, 253

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revenue, 89 revolutionaries, 161 revolutionary, 161, 162 rhetoric, 127, 138, 139 rice, 19, 87, 88, 282 right hemisphere, 235, 236 rights, iv, 27, 35, 55, 75, 101, 136, 139, 158, 159, 160, 161, 164, 166, 171, 172, 173, 174, 202, 204, 205, 207, 208, 212, 218, 234, 235, 236, 237, 269, 353 rigidity, 150 rings, 174 risk, 20, 22, 106, 115, 116, 117, 118, 182, 208, 263, 269, 278 risk management, 115, 117, 118 risks, x, 105, 107, 109, 115, 118, 129, 141, 234, 240, 247, 269, 271, 272, 273, 278, 280, 282 robotics, 181, 241, 262, 271, 272 robustness, 131 rods, 51 Roman Catholics, 161 Romania, 233, 277, 352 Rome, 234, 235 Roosevelt, Franklin, 172 root, 111, 115, 135, 167 roots, 140, 159, 160, 174, 264, 271 royalty, 6 rule of law, 141 rule of origin, 101 rules, viii, ix, 18, 19, 20, 25, 26, 28, 37, 47, 61, 62, 63, 66, 80, 90, 101, 133, 161, 183, 185, 208, 213 rural, 245 rural development, 66, 77, 83 rural population, 245 RUS, 233, 305 Russia, 91, 110, 114, 160, 238, 269, 271 Russian, 233, 240, 268, 270, 273, 278, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347, 352 Rwanda, 232, 276, 350 S safety, 166, 244, 248, 272, 281 SAI, 207 salaries, 208 sales, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 14, 36, 39, 40, 53, 65, 117, 282 Samoa, 103, 230, 275, 349 sample, 109, 117, 184, 188, 190, 192, 196 sample mean, 188, 190 sanctions, 19, 29 satisfaction, 133 saturation, 248

Saudi Arabia, 231, 268, 270, 275, 341, 343, 344, 346, 349 savings, 27, 250, 252, 267, 281 Scandinavia, 224 scarce resources, 146 scarcity, xi, 157, 170 SCD, 310 scepticism, 208, 209 school, 159, 160, 163, 167 science, 158, 170, 181, 182, 196, 228, 234, 235, 237, 242, 269, 271, 279, 281, 282, 283, 353, 354 scientific, xii, 185, 191, 227, 228, 281 sclerosis, 131 scope, 142, 149, 151, 236, 254 SCS, 354 SD, 234, 235, 308, 310, 337 SE, 201, 255, 256, 257, 258, 259, 260, 261, 262 search, 30, 56, 130, 171, 174 searching, 185, 195 seasonal component, 193 second generation, 145 Second World, 158, 164 secretariat, 229 Secretary of Commerce, 45, 49, 51 sectoral policies, 131 securities, 38, 107, 250, 263 security, x, 39, 41, 55, 56, 66, 77, 83, 125, 126, 128, 130, 131, 135, 138, 143, 144, 161, 172, 174, 181, 234, 236, 237, 241, 269, 271, 280, 282 seed, 170 seeds, 170 segregation, 158, 173 selecting, 186, 251, 255 self, 137, 140, 158, 165, 166, 168 Self, 223, 234 self-control, 234 self-esteem, 165, 166 self-interest, 140 self-knowledge, 168 self-organization, 283 self-organizing, 282 self-sufficiency, 281 semiconductor, 56 semi-structured interviews, 206 Senate, 22, 30, 36, 45, 46, 47, 59, 67, 87, 94 Senegal, 232, 276, 350 senses, 168 sensitivity, 128 separatism, 138, 141 September 11, 126, 135, 136, 143, 162, 175, 264 September 11th, 175 sequencing, 26, 28, 29, 117 Serbia, 232, 277, 351

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Index Serbs, 172 series, vii, 1, 6, 51, 98, 137, 145, 149, 180, 182, 184, 185, 191, 192, 193, 195, 199, 200, 247, 254, 255, 353 service firms, 179 services, iv, vii, ix, 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15, 56, 61, 64, 67, 69, 75, 79, 80, 130, 166, 179, 243, 246, 247, 253 sex, 165 sexual feelings, 161 Seychelles, 232, 276, 350 SGP, 231 shape, 159 shares, 5, 238, 240, 245, 246, 248, 251, 263, 269 sharing, 14, 115, 144, 242, 278 shock, 110, 111, 113, 114, 136, 251 shocks, 264, 272 short run, 108, 110, 114, 115, 247 short-term, 179, 195, 250, 252, 253, 254 short-term interest rate, 250, 252, 254 showing, 7, 203, 215, 247 shrimp, 42, 51 Sierra Leone, 232, 276, 350 sign, 144, 163, 191, 203, 207, 210, 211, 212, 213, 216, 217, 218, 219 signaling, 129 signals, 140, 282 signs, 136, 189, 190, 210 similarity, 213, 219 simulation, xii, 227, 228, 230, 234, 238, 255, 264, 267, 268, 271, 272, 279, 280, 281, 354 simulations, xii, 95, 227, 228, 229, 230, 234, 235, 236, 238, 240, 241, 247, 255, 264, 272, 278, 279, 281, 283, 353, 354, 355 sine, 184 Singapore, 48, 78, 113, 231, 273, 274, 347, 348 skilled workers, 7 skills, 117, 282 slavery, 171 SLE, 232 Slovakia, 233, 277, 352 Slovenia, 232, 277, 351 smoothing, 106, 181, 196 SO2, 323 social, 235, 282 social benefits, 49, 53 social change, 160, 161 social consensus, xi, 157 social costs, 53 social fabric, 131, 167 social group, 133, 135, 150, 153 social justice, 127, 130, 138, 143, 147, 153, 155, 164, 166, 171

social life, 161, 164, 165 social movements, 165, 166 social sciences, 165 social security, 138 Social Security, 318 social status, 165 socially, 234 socially responsible, 234 society, xii, 115, 126, 131, 137, 138, 139, 141, 143, 144, 146, 148, 150, 154, 158, 162, 164, 167, 168, 170, 171, 174, 210, 227, 228, 233, 234, 237, 240, 241, 247, 269, 272, 281, 282 socioeconomic, 235 software, 4, 158, 229, 236, 237, 253, 254, 281 solar, 240, 262, 271, 272 solidarity, xii, 135, 227, 229, 233, 234, 245, 269, 280, 283, 284 Solomon I, 103, 230, 275, 349 Solomon Islands, 103, 230, 275, 349 solution, 20, 22, 26, 141, 180, 184, 185, 210, 211, 212, 219, 234, 244 solutions, 185, 215, 238 Somalia, 232, 276, 350 South Africa, 80, 91, 92, 164, 173, 175, 197, 232, 268, 276, 342, 343, 345, 346, 350 South America, 92, 159 South Asia, 165, 267, 270, 273, 341, 343, 344, 346, 347 South Korea, 43, 88, 92, 222, 223 Southeast Asia, 230, 231, 267, 270, 273, 341, 343, 344, 346, 347 sovereignty, 172 Soviet Union, 164, 166, 172 soybeans, 87, 170 space technology, 234 Spain, 113, 179, 217, 231, 274, 348 species, 173 specificity, 26, 68, 86, 210 spectrum, xi, 137, 138, 141, 157, 169 speech, 162, 166, 167, 171, 174 speed, 117, 136, 141, 252 spending, x, 62, 63, 65, 68, 69, 71, 74, 77, 84, 86, 87, 95, 133, 134, 142 spillover effects, 110, 111 spillovers, 5, 113, 114 spine, 170 spirituality, 164 Spring, 353, 354 SR, 189, 190, 192 Sri Lanka, 103, 231, 274, 348 SSA, 235 stability, 72, 112, 127, 131, 138, 139, 140, 145, 165, 171, 234, 279, 353

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stabilization, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 278, 289 stages, viii, 6, 7, 25, 26, 83, 185, 187, 214, 281 stakeholders, 206, 208, 218, 219 standards, vii, 1, 11, 29, 118, 133 Standards, 221, 224, 225 state, 3, 4, 28, 29, 112, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 144, 145, 147, 148, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 155, 160, 161, 163, 167, 171, 194, 200 states, x, 3, 31, 37, 65, 73, 98, 125, 126, 141, 148, 152, 153, 155, 168, 171, 216, 217, 271 statistical inference, 2, 8, 12, 180, 182 statistics, 2, 12, 41, 158, 170, 188, 234, 237, 262, 272 statutes, ix, 34, 35, 37, 46 statutory authority, 34 steel, 42, 46, 47, 51, 59, 60 steel industry, 42, 51, 59 stochastic, 235, 237 stock, xii, 2, 87, 107, 110, 114, 115, 118, 199, 227, 228, 238, 240, 242, 245, 246, 250, 263, 264, 269 stock markets, 114, 118 stock price, 114 strain, xi, 125 strategic, 219 strategies, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 142, 144, 149, 153, 155, 202, 203, 206 streams, xi, 179, 204 strength, 136, 186, 210 stress, 109, 236, 269 strikes, 168 structural adjustment, 126, 127, 133, 138, 142, 149, 150, 154 structural changes, 140, 238 structural reforms, 139, 142 structuralism, xi, 125 structure, 1, 5, 7, 20, 22, 144, 150, 151, 158, 182, 183, 184, 191, 192, 202, 217, 238, 254, 281 STRUCTURE, 337 structuring, 65 students, 160, 173 style, 127, 139, 142 sub-prime, 242 sub-Saharan Africa, 99, 159 Sub-Saharan Africa, 230, 231, 268, 270, 273, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347 subsidization, 65 subsidy, viii, ix, 18, 19, 20, 22, 33, 34, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 42, 45, 54, 63, 67, 78, 80, 81, 84, 282 subsistence, 173 substitutes, 14 substitution, 18, 37, 149, 248, 281, 282 subtraction, 185

Sudan, 232, 276, 350 suffering, xi, 100, 144, 157, 170 sugar, 42, 63, 75, 86, 87 summer, 135 super powers, 238 superconductor, 240, 262, 271 superiority, 192 superposition, 197 supervision, 118 supplemental, 353 supplements, 234 supplier, 213, 216, 217 suppliers, 10, 203, 207, 210, 213, 216 supply, 216, 238, 240, 241, 244, 245, 246, 247, 250, 252, 254 supply chain, 216 surplus, 143, 242, 244, 246, 250, 251, 253, 263, 279 surveillance, viii, 25, 26 survival, 155, 184, 248, 263, 281, 282 sustainability, 133, 153 sustainable development, xii, 155, 227, 228, 229, 236, 240, 241, 242, 247, 255, 263, 269, 279, 281, 354, 355 sustainable growth, 127, 172 sustained development, 152 sweat, 207 Sweden, 113, 201, 217, 223, 224, 231, 274, 279, 348 Switzerland, 76, 92, 231, 271, 274, 348, 354 symbolic, 210, 211, 216, 217 symbols, 283 symptoms, 236 synapse, 283 synapses, 182 syndrome, 228, 269, 271, 272, 279 synthesis, 139 systemic change, 151 systems, xi, 11, 106, 159, 160, 164, 195, 197, 198, 201, 203, 204, 205, 207, 214, 215, 216, 217, 220, 234, 235, 236, 237, 254, 281, 320 T tactics, 160 Taiwan, 123, 181, 223, 231, 274, 348 Tajikistan, 233, 278, 352 talent, 281 Taliban, 162, 163 Tanzania, 232, 276, 350 target, ix, 34, 87, 88, 132, 160, 252 target zone, 252 targets, 64, 75, 78, 80, 143, 162

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Index tariff, x, 19, 29, 44, 47, 50, 51, 54, 62, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 72, 73, 75, 76, 77, 79, 80, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 244, 249, 272, 279 tariff rates, x, 77, 84, 97 task force, 214 tax incentive, 5 tax rates, 279 taxation, 144, 145 taxes, 9, 98 taxpayers, 53 TCE, 321, 323 TCR, 259, 299, 306, 338 teachers, 163, 166, 167 teaching, 161, 166, 167, 168, 169 technical assistance, 56 techniques, xi, 2, 10, 12, 179, 180, 181, 185, 193, 194, 195, 196, 236 technological, 233, 247, 284 technological advancement, 130, 169, 174 technological advances, 162 technological change, 159 technologies, 158, 170, 240, 272 technology, vii, 1, 3, 6, 10, 14, 106, 128, 157, 158, 159, 170, 172, 195, 202, 228, 234, 235, 236, 237, 238, 240, 241, 242, 244, 245, 246, 248, 250, 253, 262, 264, 265, 267, 269, 271, 272, 278, 279, 280, 281, 282, 353 technology transfer, 3, 6, 279 teens, 163 telecommunication, 269 telecommunications, 145 telephone, 201 television, 158, 159 tempo, 248 tension, xi, 158, 201, 202, 204, 206, 212, 213, 220 tensions, 128, 130, 171, 204 territory, 36, 37 terrorism, xi, 157, 158, 161, 162, 174, 229, 235, 262, 271, 280 terrorist, 271 terrorist activities, 162 terrorist attack, 161 terrorist organization, 141 terrorists, 161, 162, 173, 264 testing, 167, 180, 197, 199, 263 Texas, 238 textbook, 143, 281 textbooks, 238 textiles, 42, 101 Thailand, 63, 69, 92, 110, 112, 113, 114, 231, 273, 274, 347, 348 theoretical, 183, 195, 204, 234, 237, 244, 247, 248, 254

theoretical approaches, 147 theory, 168, 181, 192, 195, 196, 199, 263 thinking, 112, 126, 158, 173, 218, 238, 283 Third World, 166, 174 third-country fabric, x, 97, 101 threat, 29, 48, 49, 52, 54, 56, 159 threatened, 228 threatening, 203 threats, 154 threshold, 47, 85, 137, 140, 180, 199 thresholds, 65 TI, 298, 339 TID, 304, 306, 339 time, xi, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 18, 22, 26, 27, 30, 39, 40, 42, 44, 45, 47, 48, 49, 50, 52, 53, 54, 57, 64, 66, 67, 68, 79, 100, 106, 109, 112, 116, 128, 137, 139, 143, 144, 154, 158, 163, 169, 171, 179, 180, 182, 184, 185, 187, 188, 191, 192, 193, 195, 196, 197,랔198, 199, 200, 204, 207, 208, 209, 211, 217, 218, 234, 235, 240, 241, 242, 247, 251, 252, 253, 254, 255, 262, 263, 283 time deposits, 252 time frame, 18, 79 time series, xi, 179, 180, 184, 185, 187, 188, 191, 192, 193, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 234 timing, 53, 117, 208 TIR, 304, 306, 339 Title I, 56, 89, 95, 102 Title II, 56 Title V, 36, 54 TNC, 202, 203, 206 tobacco, 145 Togo, 232, 276, 350 Tokyo, 98, 159, 229, 272, 354 tolerance, 234 Tonga, 230, 275, 349 top management, 209 top-down, 206 torture, 171 total energy, 240, 247 total product, 6, 69, 92 tourism, vii, xi, 1, 136, 179, 180, 181, 182, 185, 187, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200 tourist, xi, 179, 181, 188, 191, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199 Toyota, 239, 282 TPA, ix, 35, 61, 63, 64, 79 TPI, 260, 261, 295, 296, 304, 306, 339 tracking, 2 trade, iv, vii, viii, ix, x, xii, 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 18, 19, 21, 25, 26, 28, 29, 31, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 45, 46, 47, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 60,

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61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 87, 90, 92, 93, 94, 97, 98, 100, 101, 102, 103, 106, 111, 113, 114, 115, 117, 128, 129, 130, 154, 158, 163, 166, 224, 227, 228, 233, 237, 238, 242, 243, 244, 248, 249, 250, 251, 253, 255, 263, 271, 278, 279, 280, 281, 282, 283, 284, 301, 302, 353 Trade Act, 29, 34, 35, 47, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 60, 102 trade agreement, 21, 34, 35, 37, 55, 62, 64, 79, 83, 84, 103 trade deficit, 45, 242, 244, 271, 278, 279 trade liberalization, 75, 79, 80, 84, 85, 92, 94, 98, 115 trade policies, xii, 227, 228, 237 trade policy, xii, 84, 85, 227, 228, 242, 244, 248, 281, 282 trade preference, x, 83, 97, 99, 101, 102, 103 trade remedy, viii, ix, 25, 33, 34, 35, 46, 47, 52 trade union, 154, 224 trademarks, 75 trading, viii, 20, 29, 33, 34, 45, 51, 63, 64, 113, 141, 143, 249 trading partners, viii, 29, 33, 34, 51, 63, 64, 113 tradition, 137, 153, 160, 165 traditions, 139, 147, 160, 163, 164, 166 traffic, 272 trafficking, 100 training, 44, 56, 165, 192, 196 trajectory, 126, 133, 137, 143, 147, 152 transactions, 10, 11, 15, 109, 116, 253 transfer, 182, 183, 184, 242 transformation, xi, 125, 126, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 144, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 155, 157, 166, 173, 193 transformations, 196 transition, 42, 132, 149, 150, 154, 171, 230, 250, 254 transitions, 171 transmission, 111, 112, 113, 114, 118, 252, 263, 282 transnational, xi, 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 207, 214, 215, 216, 217, 220 transnationalization, 127 transparency, 27, 78, 127, 129, 134 transport, 5, 69, 144, 195, 197, 253 transport costs, 5 transportation, vii, 42, 272 traps, 241 travel, 198, 281 Treasury, 15, 46, 144, 145 treatment, x, 14, 37, 52, 65, 66, 68, 79, 80, 81, 83, 84, 85, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 165, 236 trend, 6, 149, 193, 199, 202, 204, 205, 217, 238, 267, 269

trial, 136, 183 tribes, 173 triggers, 66 Trinidad, 232, 277, 351 Trinidad and Tobago, 232, 277, 351 trust, 69, 139, 212, 213, 219 tsunami, 126, 136 TT, 321, 333, 337 Tunisia, 231, 275, 349 turbulence, 114, 158, 269 turbulent, 207 Turkey, v, xi, 92, 125, 132, 133, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 147, 149, 150, 152, 153, 155, 232, 268, 270, 277, 342, 343, 345, 346, 351 Turkmenistan, 233, 278, 352 Tuvalu, 103, 230, 275, 349 typology, 126 U U.S. Department of Commerce, 13, 14 U.S. economy, 6, 8 U.S. policy, 20, 84, 103 U.S. Trade Promotion Authority (TPA XE "TPA" ), ix, 61, 63 Uganda, 232, 276, 350 UK, 122, 175, 224, 225, 255, 259, 354, 355 Ukraine, 59, 233, 240, 278, 352 UN, 203, 230, 242, 269, 282, 322 uncertainty, 179, 215, 218, 234, 238, 240, 267, 268 underwriting, 65, 81, 90, 138 unemployment, 135, 142, 241, 246, 251, 272, 283 unemployment rate, 241, 246, 251, 272 UNESCO, 255, 352, 354, 355 uniform, 11, 116 unilateral, 209, 218 union representatives, 51, 206, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 213, 214, 218, 219 unionism, 222, 223 unions, xi, 36, 98, 154, 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 207, 208, 210, 211, 212, 214, 215, 216, 217, 219, 220, 224 United, vii, viii, ix, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 39, 41, 44, 45, 46, 47, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 58, 59, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 78, 80, 82, 85, 86, 92, 99, 101, 102, 103, 113, 120, 126, 130, 158, 159, 160, 161, 165, 166, 170, 171, 172, 173, 175, 181, 222, 229, 230, 231, 236, 249, 252, 254, 267, 270, 273, 274, 275, 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347, 348, 349, 352, 353, 354

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Index United Arab Emirates, 231, 275, 349 United Kingdom, 113, 172, 231, 267, 270, 273, 274, 341, 343, 344, 346, 347, 348 United Nations, 2, 11, 13, 92, 158, 166, 171, 222, 229, 230, 236, 352, 353, 354 United States, vii, viii, ix, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 39, 41, 44, 45, 46, 47, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 58, 59, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 78, 80, 82, 85, 86, 99, 101, 102, 103,랔120, 126, 130, 159, 160, 165, 166, 170, 172, 173, 175, 181, 230, 249, 252, 254, 267, 270, 273, 274, 341, 342, 344, 345, 347 univariate, 180 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 171 universe, 167 universities, 146, 170 updating, vii, 1, 11, 12, 254 urban, xi, 150, 154, 157, 166, 245 urban population, 245 Uruguay, 26, 29, 31, 34, 35, 37, 41, 62, 63, 69, 73, 78, 79, 90, 92, 232, 277, 351 Uruguay Round, 26, 29, 31, 34, 35, 37, 41, 62, 63, 69, 73, 78, 79, 90, 92 US dollar, 238, 242, 243, 244, 249, 254, 262, 263, 271, 272, 273, 278, 279, 302, 314, 315 USA, 93, 105, 203, 230, 246, 249, 250, 252, 254, 255, 256, 258, 259, 260, 261, 262, 292, 294, 295, 296, 299, 300, 301, 303, 305, 309, 313, 314, 315, 326 USDA, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 74, 90, 94, 95 users, 2, 11, 18 Uzbekistan, 233, 278, 352 V vacuum, 204 validity, 152 valuation, 181, 187 values, xi, 88, 111, 129, 130, 139, 157, 159, 163, 167, 169, 170, 171, 182, 184, 186, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 252, 253, 264 Vanuatu, 103, 230, 275, 349 variability, 184 variable, 153, 182, 191, 193, 243, 246, 250, 251, 254, 304 variables, 7, 182, 185, 188, 199, 234, 235, 238, 242, 243, 245, 246, 247, 249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 254, 255, 297 variance, 191, 194 variations, 185 vector, 181, 185, 196, 197, 198, 243 vegetables, 75

vehicles, 98, 240, 272 vein, 128, 147, 149 Venezuela, 92, 232, 277, 351 vertical integration, 6, 7 Vice President, 46 victims, 171 Victoria, 198 Vietnam, 59, 205, 226 Viking, 175 village, 169 violence, xi, 157, 161, 162, 163, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173, 174 violent crime, 173 violent crimes, 173 vision, 127, 130, 134, 148, 150, 155, 283 visions, 151 voice, 38 volatile environment, 134 volatility, 107, 110, 114, 115 vote, 35, 46, 63, 79, 137, 143 voters, 138, 202, 206 vulnerability, 108, 110, 113, 114 vulnerable people, 166 W wage differentials, 205 wage rate, 5, 14, 241, 251, 271 wages, 4, 7, 165, 166, 251 waiver, 98, 99, 102 walking, 169 war, xi, 109, 130, 143, 157, 158, 162, 163, 164, 168, 171, 172, 173, 174, 176 War on Terror, 135, 143 war years, 109 Washington, 12, 23, 59, 94, 119, 121, 128, 136, 140, 162, 352 Washington Consensus, 128, 140 waste, 170 waste disposal, 170 water, 10 watershed, 137, 138 Watson, 255 wavelets, 181 weakness, 150 wealth, xi, 157, 163, 165, 166, 168, 169, 170, 233, 253 weapons, 172 weather patterns, 170 web, 89, 126 welfare, 85, 234, 245, 269 West Africa, 170 Western countries, 159, 215

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Index World Trade Organization, v, viii, x, 25, 31, 58, 62, 89, 90, 94, 97, 98, 102 world trading system, 53, 79 World War, 112, 158, 164, 269 World War I, 112, 269 World War II, 269 World Wide Web, 158 worldview, 159 worldwide, 2, 4, 35, 117, 165 writing, 40, 44, 139 WTO, v, vii, viii, ix, x, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 33, 35, 36, 37, 39, 40, 41, 44, 47, 51, 52, 55, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 74, 75, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 159, 223 Y Yemen, 103, 231, 275, 349 yield, 106, 209, 252 yuan, 45 Yugoslavia, 166, 351 Z Zimbabwe, 232, 276, 350

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Western Europe, 230, 267, 270, 273, 341, 342, 344, 345, 347 wheat, 87 WHO, 269, 322, 352 wholesale, 44, 134 windows, 158 wine, 73 Wisconsin, 175, 197 wisdom, 234 withdrawal, 26 women, 44, 161, 163, 164, 165, 166, 171 women’s issues, 166 words, 151 work, 128, 165, 166 workers, viii, 7, 33, 34, 35, 36, 47, 49, 53, 56, 57, 166, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 212, 215, 216, 218 workforce, 2, 166, 203 working conditions, 207, 213 working hours, 241 working mothers, 166 workplace, 165 workstation, 229 World Bank, 84, 85, 89, 105, 119, 120, 121, 122, 127, 133, 134, 135, 142, 149, 150, 159, 230, 254, 269, 352 world order, 157, 172, 174 World Trade Center, 162, 173

Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Globalization Policies and Issues, edited by Brandon J. Sherman, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,