Global Warming 101 0313346909, 9780313346903

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Global Warming 101

Recent Titles in the Science 101 Series Evolution 101

Janice Moore and Randy Moore Biotechnology 101

Brian Robert Shmaefsky Cosmology 101

Kristine M. Larsen Genetics 101

Michael Windelspecht Human Origins 101

Holly M. Dunsworth Nanotechnology 101

John Mongillo

Global Warming 101 Bruce E. Johansen

Science 101

GREENWOOD PRESS Westport, Connecticut r London

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Johansen, Bruce E. (Bruce Elliott), 1950– Global warming 101 / Bruce E. Johansen. p. cm. — (Science 101, ISSN 1931–3950) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978–0–313–34690–3 (alk. paper) 1. Global warming. 2. Greenhouse gases. I. Title. QC981.8.G56J639 2008 2008000052 363.738′ 74—dc22 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data is available. C 2008 by Bruce E. Johansen Copyright 

All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be reproduced, by any process or technique, without the express written consent of the publisher. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 2008000052 ISBN-13: 978–0–313–34690–3 ISSN: 1931–3950 First published in 2008 Greenwood Press, 88 Post Road West, Westport, CT 06881 An imprint of Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc. www.greenwood.com Printed in the United States of America

The paper used in this book complies with the Permanent Paper Standard issued by the National Information Standards Organization (Z39.48–1984). 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Contents Series Foreword Introduction Feedback Loops and Tipping Points Human Influences, as the Dominant Climate Change Influence Writings About Global Warming Increase Rapidly Outline of the Book 1.

2.

ix xi xii xiii xiv xv

Global Warming Science: The Basics Composition of Earth’s Atmosphere History of the Greenhouse Effect as an Idea Increasing Levels of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere The Use of Energy from Fossil Fuels Continues to Increase Greenhouse Gases and Wintertime Warming Feedback Loops: Global Warming’s “Compound Interest” Soot: A “Wild Card” in Global Warming The Abrupt Nature of Climate Change The Sun as a Major “Driver” of Climate Change Once upon a Green Venus? Surface Warming, Stratospheric Cooling, and Ozone Depletion

1 1 2 3 6 8 9 11 11 12 13

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science Could Europe’s Heat of 2003 Become Typical? Drought and Deluge Drought and Deluge: Many Examples Warming and Spreading Deserts Global Warming and Hurricanes

17 17 19 21 23 24

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Warming and North America’s Water Supplies Warming and Wild Weather in Great Britain An “Orderly Retreat” of Government from London? Palm Trees and Banana Plants in English Gardens? Wildfires, Drought, and Floods Increase in Australia Japan: Heat Island Tokyo

29 31 32 32 34 35

3.

Melting Ice Erosion of Arctic Ice Personal Stories of Climate Change Surface Albedo (Reflectivity) Speeds Warming “Drunken Forests” Spruce Beetle Outbreaks on the Kenai Peninsula Shishmaref, Alaska Is Washing into the Sea Ice Melt in Greenland Polar Bears under Pressure Climate Contradictions in Antarctica Ice Shelves Collapse The Speed of Ice Melt: A Slow-motion Disaster? Antarctic Warming and the Ocean Food Web Mountain Glaciers in Retreat Disintegration of Glaciers in the High Alps Andes Glaciers’ Retreat

39 41 41 43 45 46 47 48 50 54 55 57 58 60 64 66

4.

Rising Seas The Penetration of Warming into the Oceans The Stakes of Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise: Local Examples Sea Level Rise May Speed Up Erosion on the Gulf of Mexico Coast Increasing Floods Expected in Bangladesh Warming and Possible Changes in Ocean Circulation Evidence that Thermohaline Circulation May be Breaking Down Thermohaline Circulation: Debating Points Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels and Acidity in the Oceans May Kill Marine Life Phytoplankton Depletion and Warming Seas Coral Reefs “on the Edge of Disaster”

73 74 75 76 78 79 81 82

Plants, Animals, and Human Health Mass Extinctions within a Century?

97 98

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Contents

Mass Extinctions: What Happened 250 Million Years Ago? Reduced Crop Yields Warming May Reduce Rice Yields Changes for Plants and Animals with Small Temperature Variations Species Moving Toward the Poles Warming, Deforestation, and the Devastation of Mountain Habitats Frogs Threatened Worldwide Warming and the Decline of Oregon’s Western Toad Seabirds Starve as Waters Warm Bird Extinctions: Baltimore without Orioles Bark Beetles Spread Across U.S. West Amazon Valley: Drought, Deforestation, and Warming Poison Ivy: Our Itchy Future Palms in Southern Switzerland Effects on Human Health Global Warming and the Spread of Diseases Malaria in a Warmer World Deaths from Heat Waves Health Benefits from Warming? 6.

Solutions Changing the Ways We Use Energy A Moratorium on Coal-fired Electricity without Sequestration Wind Power Capacity Surges The New Solar Power Changes in Personal Transport Aviation: The Most Carbon-Inefficient Mode of Travel Ethanol: The Right Way, and the Wrong Way Hydrogen Fuel-Celled Transport: No Free Lunch Generate Your Own “Green” Electric Power—and Sell your Surplus to the Power Company Biomass: Very Basic Stuff Geothermal: Energy Savings from the Earth A Carbon Tax: Charging for Carbon Production Farming Technology Improvements Signals from Europe U.S. States Act on Automobile Efficiency Building Code Changes

98 101 102 103 105 110 112 112 113 115 117 118 118 119 120 121 123 125 127 133 133 134 136 138 140 142 145 147 148 149 150 150 151 152 153 154

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Is the Kyoto Protocol a Band-Aid or a Dead Letter? Tree Planting and Global Warming: Can New Forests Make Warming Worse? Problems with Ocean Iron Fertilization Nuclear Power as “Clean” Energy? Deep-sea Injection of Carbon Dioxide: Effects on Life “Creation Care:” Biblical Stewardship of the Earth Glossary Annotated Bibliography Index

155 156 158 160 161 164 171 177 187

Series Foreword What should you know about science? Because science is so central to life in the 21st century, science educators believe that it is essential that everyone understand the basic foundations of the most vital and far-reaching scientific disciplines. Global Warming 101 helps you reach that goal—this series provides readers of all abilities with an accessible summary of the ideas, people, and impacts of major fields of scientific research. The volumes in the series provide readers—whether students new to the science or just interested members of the lay public—with the essentials of a science using a minimum of jargon and mathematics. In each volume, more complicated ideas build upon simpler ones, and concepts are discussed in short, concise segments that make them more easily understood. In addition, each volume provides an easy-to-use glossary and an annotated bibliography of the most useful and accessible print and electronic resources that are currently available.

Introduction Since the beginning of the industrial age three centuries ago, humankind has been altering the composition of the atmosphere. We are carbon-creating creatures. Throughout the twentieth century, we have assembled an increasing number of machines, all of which produce carbon dioxide and other gases that have been changing the atmospheric balance in ways that retain an increasing amount of heat. In 1910, the average American used about 1.5 horsepower worth of mechanized energy; in 1990, largely due to the general acquisition of automobiles, the average person commanded the power (and the greenhouse gas effluent) of 130 horsepower (Dornbusch and Poterba, 1991, 53). Even as awareness of global warming’s problems became more apparent, the use of fossil fuels continued to increase. The world’s inhabitants consumed about 66.6 million barrels of oil a day in 1990 and 83 million in 2007; the demand for oil in the United States grew 22 percent during that period. During the same time, the demand in China grew almost 200 percent (Friedman, 2007, A-27). Bill McKibben commented in the Washington Post, “Consider the news from the real world, the one where change is measured with satellites and thermometers, not focus groups . . . Shaken scientists see every prediction about the future surpassed by events. As Martin Parry, cochair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, told reporters this month, ‘We are all used to talking about these impacts coming in the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren. Now we know that it’s us’” (McKibben, 2007, A-19). Global temperatures spiked starting in the late 1980s, repeatedly breaking records set only a year or two earlier. The warmest years in recorded history thus far has been 2006 and 2007, breaking the record set in 2005, which exceeded 1998’s benchmark. According to NASA’s

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Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the 11 warmest years since reliable records have been kept on a global scale (roughly 1890) occurred after 1995. Carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse gases,” such as methane, nitrous oxides, and chloroflourocarbons (CFCs), retain heat in the atmosphere. The proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose from 280 parts per million to roughly 365 parts per million as the new millennium dawned on the Christian calendar. By 2007, this level stood at 380 parts per million. Other greenhouse gases have also risen sharply. During the 1990s, a vivid public debate grew around the world regarding how much warmer the earth may become, and why. Before the end of this century, the urgency of global warming will become obvious to everyone. Solutions to our fossil fuel dilemma—solar, wind, hydrogen, and others—will evolve during this century. Within our century, necessity will compel invention. Other technologies may develop that have not, as yet, even broached the realm of present-day science fiction, any more than digitized computers had in the days that the Wright Brothers took the first aircraft into the sky a little more than 100 years ago. We will take this journey because the changing climate, along with our own innate curiosity and creativity, requires new ways of creating and using the energy that is vital to our lives. Such change will not take place at once. Changes in basic energy technology may require the better part of a century, or longer. Several technologies will evolve together. Oil-based fuels will continue to be used for purposes that require it. FEEDBACK LOOPS AND TIPPING POINTS

Why do scientists insist that global warming is so important when its serious consequences seem so far in the future? Global warming is a sneaky, slow-motion, threat. Most people react to what they see and feel today. Our diplomacy as well as legal, political, and economic actions follow those perceptions. Nature also takes time to react (scientists call this delay “thermal inertia”), so we are now feeling the warming provoked by the fossil fuels that were burned about half a century ago. Rise in sea level runs 100 to 200 years behind the actual burning of fossil fuels. Among scientists who keep tabs on the pace of global warming, the anxiety that the Earth is reaching an ominous threshold, a point of no return (“tipping point” in some of the scientific literature), has been rising. Within a decade or two, various feedbacks will speed the pace of greenhouse warming past any human ability to contain or reverse it.

Introduction

Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are rising rapidly, fed, among other provocations, by the increasing use of fossil fuels in the United States, melting permafrost, slash-and-burn agriculture in Indonesia and Brazil, increasing wildfires, as well as rapid industrialization using dirty coal in China and India. HUMAN INFLUENCES, AS THE DOMINANT CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE

According to atmospheric scientists Thomas Karl and Kevin Trenberth, as they wrote in Science, natural variations are no longer the major contribution (or “forcing”) in Earth’s climate. Human contributions became the major factor about 1950 (Karl and Trenberth, 2003, 1720). The human overload of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has become the main (although not the only) influence on climate. Among human causes, land use changes and urbanization (the spread of cities, which create and retain heat) are adding warmth to the atmosphere, along with the combustion of fossil fuels, according to Karl and Trenberth. The two scientists’ models indicate a 90 percent probability that temperatures worldwide will rise between 3.1◦ F and 8.9◦ F by the year 2100. They concluded, There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and sea-level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive. (Karl and Trenberth, 2003, 1719)

Lord Peter Levene, board chairman of Lloyd’s of London, has said that terrorism is not the insurance industry’s biggest worry, despite the fact that his company was the largest single insurer of the World Trade Center. Levene said that Lloyd’s, along with other large international insurance companies, is preparing for an increase in weather disasters related to global warming (Newkirk, 2003, 3-D). During January 2005, Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said, with regard to global warming, “We are risking the ability of the human race to survive” (Hertsgaard, 2005). Following his assignment as chief weapons inspector in Iraq, Hans Blix said, “To me the question of the environment is more ominous than that of peace and war. We will have regional conflicts and use of

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force, but world conflicts I do not believe will happen any longer. But the environment, that is a creeping danger. I’m more worried about global warming than I am of any major military conflict” (Hans Blix’s, 2003, D-2). Sir John Houghton, cochair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, agreed. “Global warming is already upon us,” he said. “The impacts of global warming are such that that I have no hesitation in describing it as a weapon of mass destruction” (Kambayashi, 2003, A-17). As a country, the United States of America produces almost a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gases. The United States and China together produce almost half of these gases. Ice core records from Antarctica indicate that present-day levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are higher now than at any time in at least the past 800,000 years (as far as the records extend as of this writing). Levels of greenhouse gases are also increasing at a rate faster than at any other time during that period. By the end of the twenty-first century, if this rate of increase continues, we may have as much carbon dioxide in our atmosphere as during the age of the dinosaurs, when the Earth was much warmer, and permanent ice was very rare. Marine and atmospheric scientist Mike Raupach, who cochairs the Global Carbon Project at Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), said that 7.9 billion metric tons of carbon were emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide in 2005. “From 2000 to 2005, the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions was more than 2.5 percent per year, whereas in the 1990s it was less than one percent per year,” he said (Growth of Global, 2006). Paul Fraser, also with CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, said that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide grew by two parts per million in 2005, the fourth year in a row of above average growth. “To have four years in a row of above-average carbon dioxide growth is unprecedented,” said Fraser, who is the program manager for the CSIRO Measurement, Processes & Remote Sensing Program (Growth of Global, 2006). WRITINGS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING INCREASE RAPIDLY

The amount of writing describing the science of global warming (and debates about it) increased very rapidly during the two decades after the 1980s. emerging from several scientific fields, including climatology, oceanography, several of the Earth sciences, as well as sociology, anthropology, and economics. The field’s development has been so recent, spreading across so many fields of study, that a body of standard reference works does not yet exist. One problem that confronts anyone

Introduction

who attempts to write such references is that material is accumulating very quickly. For example, the age of the oldest measurements taken from Antarctic ice cores increased from 260,000 years to 800,000 years within one decade. A few months after the first reports of 420,000-year-old ice cores, Paul Pearson of the University of Bristol and Martin Palmer of Imperial College, London, reported in Nature dated August 17, 2000, that a research team had developed methods for estimating the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide level to about 60 million years before the present. The upshot of Pearson and Palmer’s studies is that today’s carbon dioxide levels were as high as they have been in at least the last 20 million years. According to their records, however, carbon dioxide levels reached the vicinity of 2,000 ppm during the late Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 million years ago (Pearson and Palmer, 2000, 695). Many of the chapters that follow evoke debates that will continue to evolve after this reference is published. Students are advised to keep up with the scientific literature, especially accounts published in Nature and Science, as well as more specialized journals such as Geophysical Research Letters and Climatic Change. OUTLINE OF THE BOOK

This book has been prepared for high school students, but it can also be read by anyone who wants a compact, plain-spoken guide to the science of global warming. We begin here with a brief introduction to the issue and continue with an examination of basic issues, followed by important controversies in the body of the science. The book then develops scientific issues related to melting ice, rising seas, and effects on plants and animals. Global Warming 101 concludes with consideration of some possible solutions. Global Warming 101 combines a survey of the science of global warming (and disputes attending it) with reporting from around the world, from the sinking Pacific islands and thawing Arctic permafrost, which indicate that significant global warming has already begun. Chapter 1, “Global Warming Science: The Basics,” opens with a survey of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, along with warming patterns. The greatest warming occurs on winter nights, when most people might welcome it, with the least on summer afternoons, when it would be most noticed. Warming is the greatest in the frigid polar regions and the least in the sweltering tropics. Chapter 1 then continues with a brief history of the “greenhouse effect” as an idea in science, followed by a description of feedback loops, by which we do not

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feel warming in the air until about 50 years after the fossil fuels that cause it have been used. The rest of the chapter describes specific issues: the role of soot, how quickly climate change can take place, the role of the sun as a factor, the climate of Venus (where an intense greenhouse effect has raised temperatures to more than 850◦ F), and the relationship of global warming at the surface and the “ozone hole” in the stratosphere. Chapter 2 continues with scientific issues that affect our everyday lives. Increasing temperatures also cause storms to become more violent, and spells of dry weather more intense, in drought-and-deluge cycles. In some ways these effects on the hydrological cycle (the way that nature handles water) have already begun as temperatures rise. Many specific examples are provided here of deluges and droughts in recent years. A survey also describes the debate regarding global warming as one of several reasons why hurricanes may become more intense. One of the most obvious results of a warming planet involve melting of ice in the Arctic, Antarctic, and mountain glaciers, the subject of Chapter 3. We begin with an unusual wintertime thunderstorm on Baffin Island, in the Arctic, followed by a description of the ways in which climate change has been affecting the lives of Inuit hunters. Next, “albedo” (reflectivity) is considered as a major reason why the Arctic is warming faster than any other region of the Earth. As ice melts, it exposes darker ground and ocean surfaces, which absorb more heat and speeds the pattern. Permafrost is melting in the Arctic, leading to even more greenhouse gases being released. Some insects, such as the bark beetle, become more destructive as warmth allows them to breed more often. Polar bears, on the other hand, are threatened because they hunt seals, their main food, from sea ice that is shrinking rapidly. Ice shelves collapse in the Antarctic, and warming threatens the breeding pattern of plankton, which feed many larger sea creatures. At the same time, the retreat of ice on tropical mountains threatens the water supplies of many cities in South America and Asia. Melting ice raises sea levels, the subject of Chapter 4. By the end of this century, sea levels may rise 1 to 3 feet, but feedback loops will guarantee that enough heat is “in the pipeline” to raise the oceans about 80 feet within about two centuries according to calculations at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. We have the makings here of a planetwide emergency. Take out a map of the world, and look at all the cities on the coasts of the world. The White House, for example, is about 60 feet above present-day high tide. One billion people, almost a sixth of the world’s population, live within 25 meters (about 80 feet) of sea level. Many cities will be inundated by such a rise in the oceans—New

Introduction

York City, Miami, New Orleans, London, Mumbai, Calcutta, Shanghai, Manila, to name only a few. Aside from raising sea levels, warming of the oceans has some surprising effects on the seas and life in them. The oceans’ circulation patterns may change, along with their supply of oxygen to sea life. Increasing levels of carbon dioxide raise the acidity level in the oceans as well, causing problems for the many forms of sea life in shells. Many coral reefs (filled with living organisms) may die with just a few degrees of additional warming. Chapter 5, “Flora, Fauna, and Human Health,” opens with the sobering news that rapid global warming could be a major factor in the extinction of many plants and animals. Most plants and animals have specific temperature ranges, and they may not be able to move fast enough to adapt. Warming temperatures may also reduce yields of some important crops, such as rice. Some forms of life become more numerous in a warmer habitat, one being jellyfish. Poison ivy also is becoming larger and more potent. Others species may move northward in the northern hemisphere, such as butterflies, armadillos, and alligators. Some of the changes are surprising: loggerhead sea turtles, for example, give birth only to females in warm sand. With increase in warming, they will become extinct. Human beings are more adaptable than most animals, but they will also suffer from the spread of some diseases, such as malaria. Deaths from heat-related stress also will rise, but deaths from diseases associated with cold weather (such as influenza) will decline. The final chapter considers solutions, most of which involve changes in how we use energy and moving away from fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) toward “renewable” sources such as wind and solar energy. The taxation system will also change to encourage use of nonfossil fuels. Some of these steps are already being taken, but the question remains: are we doing enough, and quickly enough, to avoid worldwide warming that is gaining speed year by year? REFERENCES Dornbusch, Rudiger, and James M. Poterba, eds. Global Warming: Economic Policy Reponses. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991. Friedman, Thomas L. “Doha and Dalian.” The New York Times, September 19, 2007, A-27. “Growth of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accelerating.” Environment News Service, November 29, 2006, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/nov2006/200611-29-02.asp. “Hans Blix’s Greatest Fear.” The New York Times, March 16, 2003, D-2.

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Introduction Hertsgaard, Mark. “It’s Much Too Late to Sweat Global Warming.” San Francisco Chronicle, February 13, 2005. Kambayashi, Takehiko. “World Weather Prompts New Look at Kyoto.” The Washington Times, September 5, 2003, A-17. Karl, Thomas R., and Kevin E. Trenberth. “Modern Global Climate Change.” Science 302 (December 5, 2003): 1719–1723. McKibben, Bill. “The Race Against Warming.” The Washington Post, September 29, 2007, A-19, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/ 09/28/AR2007092801400 pf.html. Newkirk, Margaret. “Lloyd’s Chief Sees no Relief in Premiums; Insurance Firms Rebuild Reserves.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, October 21, 2003, 3-D. Pearson, Paul N., and Martin R. Palmer. “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations Over the Past 60 Million Years.” Nature 406 (August 17, 2000): 695–699.

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Global Warming Science: The Basics COMPOSITION OF EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE

The Earth’s atmosphere comprises 78.1 percent nitrogen and 20.9 percent oxygen. All the other gases, including those responsible for the greenhouse effect, make up only about 1 percent of the atmosphere: carbon dioxide (CO2 ) is 0.035 percent, methane (CH4 ) is 0.00017 percent, and ozone is about 0.000002 percent. The greenhouse effect is absolutely necessary to keep the Earth at a temperature that sustains life as we know it. Earth’s moderate degree of infrared forcing (along with its blanket of liquid water) keeps the planet habitable. Without the greenhouse effect, the average temperature of the Earth would be about 33◦ C (60◦ F) colder than today’s average, too cold to sustain the Earth’s existing plant and animal life. A little carbon dioxide or methane can hold a great deal of heat, however, and a small change in the atmosphere as a whole can change temperatures a great deal. The greenhouse effect is not an idea that is new to science. It has merely become more easily detectable in our time as temperatures have risen and scientists have devised more sophisticated ways to measure and forecast atmospheric processes. The atmospheric balance of “trace” gases actually started to change beyond natural bounds at the dawn of the Industrial Age, with the first large-scale burning of fossil fuels. The greenhouse effect first became noticeable in the 1880s. After an intense debate, the idea that human activity is warming the Earth in potentially damaging ways became generally accepted in scientific circles by about 1995. Taken to extremes, an atmospheric greenhouse effect can be very unpleasant. Witness perpetually cloudy Venus, with an atmosphere that is 96 percent carbon dioxide. The surface temperature on Venus, increased considerably by runaway greenhouse warming, is roughly 850◦ F,

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hot enough to melt lead. The planet Mars’ atmosphere is 95 percent carbon dioxide, but it’s so thin that temperatures on the surface average −53◦ C. Carbon dioxide is only the most common of several gases that contribute to global warming, but it is responsible for about half of the greenhouse effect. Several other gases, including methane, contribute the other half. Water vapor also plays a role as a greenhouse gas, and as the air warms, it holds more moisture. The atmosphere holds 6 percent more water vapor with each 1◦ C rise in temperature. HISTORY OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AS AN IDEA

The fossil-fueled Industrial Revolution was born in England. As coalfired industry (as well as home heating and cooking) filled English skies with acrid smoke, some English homeowners protested coal’s use as a fuel. The coal-burning steam engine was invented by Thomas Newcomen in 1712 and refined into a form that was widely adaptable for industrial processes by James Watt, beginning in 1769. Within a century of industrialism’s first stirrings, during the 1820s, Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier, a Frenchman, compared the atmosphere to a greenhouse. During the 1860s, John Tyndall, an Irishman, developed the idea of an “atmospheric envelope,” suggesting that water vapor and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are responsible for retaining heat radiated from the sun. Tyndall also wrote that the climate might warm or cool based on the amount of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere. In 1896, Savante August Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, published a paper in The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science titled “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground” (Arrhenius, 1896, 237–276). In his paper, Arrhenius theorized that a rise in the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide could raise the temperature of the air. He was not the only person thinking along these lines at the time; Swedish geologist Arvid Hogbom had delivered a lecture on the same idea 3 years earlier, which Arrhenius incorporated into his article. Arrhenius was a wellknown scientist in his own time, not for his theories describing the greenhouse effect but for his work on electrical conductivity, for which he was awarded a Nobel Prize in 1903. By the late 1930s, the prospect of global warming was catching the eye of G. D. Callendar, a British meteorologist, who gathered records from more than 200 weather stations around the world to argue that the Earth had warmed 0.4◦ C between the 1880s and the 1930s because of

Global Warming Science

carbon dioxide emissions by industry (Callendar, 1938). While Callendar’s assertions were met with skepticism by many English scientists at the time, he was laying the foundation for modern-day efforts to make more precise measurements and designs of climate models to forecast climate change. Two decades after Callendar, in 1956, Gilbert Plass, a scientist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, suggested that carbon dioxide has an important influence on climate. He also projected that burning of fossil fuels would raise the global temperature 1.1◦ C (2◦ F) by the end of the century, very close to the actual worldwide increase. In 1957, Roger Revelle and Hans Suess warned, as part of the International Geophysical Year, that human beings were carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment by returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years. Revelle would become known to the world years later as the mentor of a graduate student, Albert Gore, who, in 1992 (a year after Revelle died), was elected the vice president of the United States (and narrowly lost the presidency to George W. Bush in 2000). The same year, Gore published a book, Earth in the Balance, which argued for mitigation of the greenhouse effect. In 2007, Gore won an Oscar for his documentary film “An Inconvenient Truth.” In 2007, jointly with the scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Gore was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. INCREASING LEVELS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE

For the past two centuries, and at a faster rate in recent years, the basic composition of the Earth’s atmosphere has been changed by the burning of fossil fuels. Human-induced warming of Earth’s climate (“infrared forcing” to scientists) is emerging as one of the major scientific, social, and economic issues of the twenty-first century, as the effects of climate change become evident in everyday life in locations as varied as the small island nations of the Pacific Ocean and the shores of the Arctic Ocean. Carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases hold heat in the atmosphere. As levels of these gases have risen, so have global temperatures, with most of the warmest years in the world’s temperature record (instrumental records exist for about a century and a half) having occurred within the last decade. By 2007, 12 of the warmest years globally had occurred within the previous 13 years. This is true of individual locations as well. In August 2007, Atlanta, Georgia, saw 5 of its 10

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Global average temperatures, 1880 to the present ( Jeff Dixon)

hottest days on record during a single heat wave. Also, in 2007, Phoenix registered 32 days at 110◦ F or higher. Today, due mainly to the combustion of fossil fuels, the amount of heat-retaining gases in the atmosphere is increasing rapidly. In a century and a half of rapid worldwide industrialization, after about 1850, the proportion of carbon dioxide has risen from roughly 280 to about 380 ppm. By the year 2006, scientists had estimated the composition of the atmosphere to roughly 60 million years in the past. The level of carbon dioxide today is believed, according to such measurements, to be as high now as it has been in at least 20 million years. During the half-century since Charles Keeling and colleagues first devised ways to measure carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere precisely, the figure has risen from about 315 ppm to today’s 380 ppm. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere jumped suddenly between 2000 and 2004, according to calculations published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2007. The rate of increase nearly tripled over the average rate in the 1990s. Instead of rising by 1.1 percent a year, as in the previous decade, emissions grew by an average of 3.1 percent a year from 2000 to 2004. “Despite the scientific consensus that carbon emissions are affecting the world’s climate, we are not seeing

Global Warming Science

evidence of progress in managing those emissions,” said Chris Field, the director of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology in Stanford, California, a coauthor of the report. The growth rate of emissions exceeds even the most pessimistic of six options presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s assessments (Boyd, 2007, A-8; Raupach et al., 2007, 10,288). Carbon dioxide emissions were 35 percent higher in 2006 than in 1990, a much faster growth rate than anticipated, researchers led by Josep G. Canadell of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization reported in the October 23, 2007, edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Much of the increase is being traced to the reduction of the oceans’ ability to remove additional carbon dioxide from the air as water temperatures increase. According to the new study, carbon released from burning fossil fuel and making cement rose from 7.0 billion metric tons per year in 2000 to 8.4 billion metric tons in 2006. A metric ton is 2,205 pounds. Methane emissions have declined, however, and so greenhouse gases as a whole are not increasing as much as carbon dioxide alone (Carbon Dioxide, 2007).

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii ( Jeff Dixon)

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The Mauna Loa record indicated an 18.8 percent increase in the mean annual concentration, from 315.98 ppm by volume of dry air in 1959 to 375.64 ppm in 2003. The El Nino-aided 1997–1998 increase of 2.87 ppm was the largest single yearly jump since the Mauna Loa record began in 1958 (Keeling and Whorf, 2004). The jump in the emission rate is alarming because it indicates a reversal of a long-term trend toward greater energy efficiency and away from carbon-based fuels, the report’s authors said. (It may also indicate increasing feedback emissions from such things as melting permafrost.) Carbon dioxide levels recorded during March 2004 at Hawaii measured 379 ppm. If emissions increase 3.1 percent a year, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere would rise from the present 380 ppm to 560 ppm in 2050 and 1,390 ppm in 2100, according to Michael Raupach, an atmospheric scientist at the Center for Marine and Atmospheric Research in Canberra, Australia. “A CO2 future like this would spell major climatechange disaster in the latter part of the 21st century,” Raupach said (Boyd, 2007, A-8). The rapid increases in carbon dioxide levels have raised speculation among scientists that atmospheric carbon dioxide may be increasing in a runaway fashion (Keeling and Whorf, 2004). Before 2002, a back-toback reading of 2.0 ppm or more had never been recorded, and the only other years with increases of 2.0 or more (1973, 1988, 1994, and 1998) had involved El Nino conditions, when warming of ocean waters of the Pacific near the equator prompt added heat worldwide. No El Nino was present in 2003 or 2004. THE USE OF ENERGY FROM FOSSIL FUELS CONTINUES TO INCREASE

According to British Petroleum’s Statistical Review of World Energy (2006), global use of energy has doubled since the 1970s, from about 5 million metric tons of oil equivalent to 10.5 million, more than 90 percent of it from fossil fuels. In the United States in 2004, the average person used 7.9 metric tons of oil equivalent, 3.8 in the United Kingdom, 1.0 in China, and 0.11 in Bangladesh (Hillman and Fawcett, 2007, 38–40). Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are built into our everyday lives—our modes of transportation, production, and consumption. Roughly 80 percent of human industrial activity worldwide is fueled by the combustion of energy that produces carbon dioxide (and, oftentimes, other greenhouse gases as well). The same industrial processes also produce waste heat in addition to greenhouse

Global Warming Science

gases. Sometimes these manufactured goods (such as automobiles) also produce waste heat and greenhouse gases as they are operated. Warming provoked by greenhouse gases remains in the air for many years, sometimes centuries. An upward trend in temperatures would continue for at least the next 100 years even if fossil fuel consumption were reduced sharply today. Fossil fuel burning is increasing most rapidly in China and other developing areas, especially India, as populations and industrial production per capita (per person) rises. Consumption of fossil fuels is increasing more slowly (and, in some cases, even declining) in the economies of the United States, Europe, and Japan. “No region is decarbonizing its energy supply,” a report said (Boyd, 2007, A-8; Raupach et al., 2007, 10,288). Amidst speculation that China might pass the United States as the world’s leading source of carbon dioxide emissions in 2008 or 2009, a report arrived from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency in mid-June 2007 that China had already taken the lead as early as 2006. China, which is experiencing an economic boom fueled mainly by low-energy (“dirty”) coal and rapidly rising cement manufacturing, witnessed a rise in CO2 emissions of 9 percent during 2006 (China, 2007). U.S. emissions declined by 1.4 percent in 2006, as compared to 2005. “There will still be some uncertainty about the exact numbers, but this is the best and most up to date estimate available,” said Jos Olivier, a scientist who crunched the numbers at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Of all industrial processes, cement clinker production is the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions. Globally, it contributes around 4 percent to the total of CO2 emissions from fuel use and industrial activities, the Netherlands agency said. Globally, in 2006, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use increased by about 2.6 percent, which is less than the 3.3 percent increase in 2005 (China, 2007). In addition to massive industrial expansion, China since the year 2000 has been adding about 7.5 billion square feet of residential and commercial real estate per year, as much as all the existing retail shopping malls in the United States, according to the United States Energy Information Administration (Kahn and Yardley, 2006). An increasing proportion of this space is air-conditioned. In addition, most Chinese buildings, even the new ones, have little or no thermal insulation and require twice as much energy to heat or cool as the same amount of floor space as a similar climate in the United States or Europe, according to the World Bank. China has energy efficiency standards, but most new buildings do not meet them (Kahn and Yardley, 2006).

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To light, heat, and cool all this new space (as well as industrial plants that produce so many exported goods), China in 2005 alone added 66 gigawatts of electricity, as much as Great Britain’s annual demand. In 2006, it added 102 gigawatts, the total demand of France. Two-thirds of this new power is generated using coal. China has built small, inexpensive coal-fired plants that only rarely use the latest more efficient combined-cycle turbines (Kahn and Yardley, 2006). GREENHOUSE GASES AND WINTERTIME WARMING

The Northern Hemisphere has been warming most quickly during the winter months in the last 30 years, according to a computer climate model developed by NASA scientists. They found that greenhouse gases, more than any of the other factors, increase the strength of polar winds that regulate the Northern Hemisphere climate in winter. The polar winds that play a large role in the wintertime climate of the Northern Hemisphere blow in the stratosphere, eventually mixing with air and influencing weather close to the Earth’s surface. The findings of Drew Shindell, Gavin Schmidt, and other atmospheric scientists from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University appeared in the April 16, 2001, issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research (Shindell et al., 2001, 7193). Shindell and his colleagues asserted that increases in greenhouse gases contribute to persistence of stronger polar winds into the springtime and contribute to a warmer early-spring climate in the Northern Hemisphere. A stronger wind circulation around the North Pole increases temperature difference between the pole and the midlatitudes. Shindell said that the Southern Hemisphere isn’t affected by increasing greenhouse gases the same way, because it’s colder and the polar wind circulation over the Antarctic is already very strong (O’Carroll, 2001). “Surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have warmed during winter months as much as to 9 degrees F during the last three decades, over 10 times more than the global annual average 0.7 degree Fahrenheit,” said Shindell. “Warmer winters will also include more wet weather in Europe and western North America, with parts of western Europe the worst hit by storms coming off the Atlantic” (O’Carroll, 2001). Year-to-year changes in the polar winds are quite large, according to Shindell, “[b]ut over the past 30 years, we have tended to see stronger winds and warming, indicative of continually increasing greenhouse gases” (O’Carroll, 2001).

Global Warming Science

Ss

Heading Toward a “Tipping Point” NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) estimates that a carbon dioxide level of about 450 ppm will cross a “tipping point” and lead to “potentially dangerous consequences for the planet” (Research Finds, 2007). With carbon dioxide levels at 383 ppm as of 2007, estimates vary as to when this dangerous level will be reached. The GISS study says that a 1◦ C (1.8◦ F) additional temperature rise will place the atmosphere at peril of crossing this point. James Hansen, director of GISS, said, “If global emissions of carbon dioxide continue to rise at the rate of the past decade, this research shows that there will be disastrous effects, including increasingly rapid sea-level rise, increased frequency of droughts and floods, and increased stress on wildlife and plants due to rapidly shifting climate zones.” According to Makiko Sato of Columbia University’s Earth Institute, “[T]he Temperature limit implies that CO2 exceeding 450 p.p.m. is almost surely dangerous, and the ceiling may be even lower” (Research Finds, 2007).

Ss FEEDBACK LOOPS: GLOBAL WARMING’S “COMPOUND INTEREST”

Present-day political debates respond mainly to the degree of warming that people feel today. In reality, however, the warmth felt today reflects fossil fuel emissions of several decades ago. The climate system is never actually in thermodynamic equilibrium. Rather, it is forever playing catch-up with the daily and seasonal variations of incoming sunlight, as the ground tries to come into thermal equilibrium with changes in solar radiation. This is where the heat capacity of the ocean, ground, and atmosphere come into play, as well as the thermal “opacity” (degree to which light is blocked) of the atmosphere, which regulates how readily heat energy from the ground can be radiated to space. How much time remains before critical feedbacks lock into place? In January 2005, a world task force of senior politicians, business leaders, and academics warned that the point of no return could be reached within a decade. Their report, Meeting the Climate Challenge, was the first to place a figure on the length of time remaining before feedbacks provoked by humanity’s contributions to climate change commit the Earth to disastrous changes, including widespread agricultural failure, water shortages and major droughts, increased disease, sea level rise, and the death of forests (Byers and Snowe, 2005, 1).

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This report asserted that the “tipping point” would be reached after the average world temperature increased 2◦ C above the average prevailing in 1750, before the Industrial Revolution began. By 2005, temperatures had already risen by an average of 0.8◦ C, with another 0.5◦ C “in the pipeline” from thermal inertia not yet realized. The report also asserted that the tipping point would occur as atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide passed 400 ppm. With the level at 383 ppm in 2007, rising at about 2 ppm a year, that threshold was less than a decade away. The report was assembled by the Institute for Public Policy Research in the United Kingdom, the Center for American Progress in the United States, and The Australia Institute. The group’s chief scientific adviser was Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (McCarthy, 2005, 1). The report concluded, “Above the 2-degree level, the risks of abrupt, accelerated, or runaway climate change also increase. The possibilities include reaching climatic tipping points leading, for example, to the loss of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets (which, between them, could raise sea level more than 10 meters over the space of a few centuries), the shutdown of the thermohaline ocean circulation (and, with it, the Gulf Stream), and the transformation of the planet’s forests and soils from a net sink of carbon to a net source of carbon” (McCarthy, 2005, 1). Many climate scientists believe that the middle of the twenty-first century will witness dramatic increase in rates of global warming. At about this time, various feedback loops are expected to compound humaninduced increases in greenhouse gas levels and, consequently, worldwide temperatures. These include several natural processes that add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, such as melting permafrost in the Arctic and changes in albedo (reflectivity) in polar regions where ice has been melting and will continue to melt. In the further future, another more dangerous feedback could come into play. Once the ocean becomes warm enough (the date is uncertain, perhaps hundreds of years) solid methane deposits at the bottom of the oceans, called clathrates, may turn to liquid, then to gas, further raising the level of methane in the air as they bubble into the atmosphere. Scientists have developed this idea as the “methane gun” or “methane burp” hypothesis. Like the melting of permafrost, this natural process may be triggered by a human-induced overload of carbon dioxide and methane and could then build upon itself like a bank account drawing an environmentally dangerous form of compound interest. The danger, according to many people who are familiar with the history of the climate

Global Warming Science

of Earth is this: Once this journey has begun in earnest, any return trip may be impossible. In the very least, it will cause a great deal of pain and suffering. SOOT: A “WILD CARD” IN GLOBAL WARMING

Atmospheric soot, often a by-product of industry, is contributing to the rapid heating of the Earth’s atmosphere, according to an increasing body of research. Microscopic carbon particles in air have long been linked to respiratory ailments, but scientists are trying to improve their understanding of how smoke in the air interacts with sunlight and chemicals to influence global warming. Dirty snow containing even small amounts (measured in parts per billion) of soot may be responsible for as much as a quarter of recent temperature rises in polar regions, according to NASA research. James Hansen and Larissa Nazarenko, climate specialists at GISS in New York City have said that even small amounts of soot contained in fossil fuel emissions (most notably diesel exhausts) absorb more sunlight and inhibit the reflection of light and its heat back into space. Soot also causes snow to melt more quickly, contributing to changing reflectivity and, eventually, rising sea levels, Hansen and Nazarenko said in an article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Hansen and Nazarenko, 2004, 423–428). Before this study, soot usually had not been factored into climate models projecting global warming’s speed and scope. THE ABRUPT NATURE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climatologists have been sharing the disturbing idea that small shifts in global conditions may lead to sudden and abrupt climate changes. The National Academy of Sciences has warned that global warming could trigger “large, abrupt and unwelcome” climatic changes that could severely affect ecosystems and human society (McFarling, 2001, A-30). “We need to deal with this because we are likely to be surprised,” said Richard Alley, a Pennsylvania State University climate expert. “It’s as if climate change were a light switch instead of a dimmer dial,” Alley said (McFarling, 2001, A-30). The report, which was commissioned by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, includes a plea for more research on the links between the land, oceans and ice that may trigger abrupt change. Alley also suggests that many of today’s models of climate change are too simple because they do not include such changes (McFarling, 2001, A-30). “Although abrupt climate change can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the

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probability of large, abrupt events,” wrote a team led by Alley (Alley et al., 2003, 2005). At times, they wrote, regional temperature changes one-third to one-half as large as those associated with 100,000-year ice age cycles have taken place on a time scale of a decade (Alley et al., 2003, 2005). Increasing precipitation extremes—from deluge to drought and back again—may also be associated with abrupt temperature changes. An intense drought that played a major role in destroying the classic Mayan civilization may be an example of such a change (Alley et al., 2003, 2005–2006). Regional temperature changes of 8◦ to 16◦ C have been known, from the history of climate, to have occurred within a few years. Such changes have, in the past, most likely occurred during the beginning or end of ice ages (Alley et al., 2003, 2006). Alley has described “threshold transitions” to be like leaning over the side of a canoe: “Leaning slightly over the side of a canoe will cause only a small tilt, but leaning slightly more may roll you and the craft into the lake” (Alley et al., 2003, 2006). At just the right point, a small “forcing” may set into motion a very large climatic change. THE SUN AS A MAJOR “DRIVER” OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Humankind’s use of fossil fuels is only one influence on climate, although it grows relatively more powerful as the atmosphere’s overload of greenhouse gases increases. Another important shaper of climate has been cycles initiated by the sun’s generation of the energy that sustains all life on Earth. A team writing in Nature found that the level of sunspot activity during the last two-thirds of the twentieth century was “exceptional,” the highest in roughly 8,000 years (Solanki et al., 2004, 1084–1086). While the sun’s cycles have had long-term effects on climate, these authors asserted that “solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades” (Solanki et al., 2004, 1084). In a paper published online by Science (www.scinceexpress.org), paleoceanographer Gerard Bond of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, and colleagues reported that the climate of the northern North Atlantic has warmed and cooled nine times in the past 12,000 years in step with changes on the surface of the sun. “It really looks like the sun has mattered to climate,” said Richard Alley. “The Bond, et al. data are sufficiently convincing that [solar variability] is now the leading hypothesis,” said Alley, to explain the roughly 1,500-year oscillation of climate seen since the last ice age, including the Little Ice Age of the seventeenth century (Kerr, 2001, 1431). This cycle is now in a rising mode and “could also add to the greenhouse warming of the

Global Warming Science

next few centuries,” according to a report by Richard Kerr in Science (Kerr, 2001, 1431). According to Alley (cited by Kerr), solar variations can “gain leverage on the atmosphere” by changing circulation patterns in the stratosphere, which would then affect the lower atmosphere and, finally, ocean circulation, where they would affect such climate drivers as the rate at which “deep water” forms in polar regions (Kerr, 2001, 1432). ONCE UPON A GREEN VENUS?

All planets’ ecosystems change over time, a fact that may be unsettling to students of the greenhouse effect on Earth who cast their eyes upon Venus, where catastrophic global warming has raised surface temperatures to a toasty 850◦ F (464◦ C). Some contemporary theories argue that Venus may have once experienced a climate much more like that of today’s Earth, “complete with giant rivers, deep oceans and teeming with life” (Leake, 2002, 11). Two British scientists believe that they have found some evidence that rivers the size of the Amazon once flowed for thousands of miles across the Venusian landscape, emptying into liquid water seas. According to a report by Jonathan Leake in the London Sunday Times, these scientists used radar images from a NASA probe to

Surface of Venus ( Jeff Dixon)

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trace the river systems, deltas, and other features they say could have been created only by moving water (Leake, 2002, 11). Because of its thick cloud cover and searing surface temperatures, no one on Earth knew much about Venusian topography until 1990, when NASA’s Magellan probe used radar to penetrate the clouds and map the surface of Venus. Magellan’s images showed that the surface had been carved by large river-like channels that scientists at the time thought were caused by volcanic lava flows. Jones and colleagues reanalyzed the same images using latest computer technology and found they were too long to have been created by lava (Leake, 2002, 11). Adrian Jones, a planetary scientist at the University College London, who carried out the research, said the findings suggested life on Venus could have evolved roughly parallel with Earth’s. “If the climate and temperature were right for water to flow, then they would have been right for life, too. It suggests life could once have existed there” (Leake, 2002, 11). Studies compiled by David Grinspoon of the Southwest Research Institute at Boulder, Colorado, suggest that Venus may have been habitable for as long as 2 billion years, before an accelerated greenhouse effect dried its oceans. Roughly 20 space exploration missions to Venus have returned enough data to construct an image of Venus today as a hellishly hot place: “[I]ts skies dominated by clouds of sulfuric acid, poisoned further by hundreds of huge volcanoes that belch lava and gases into an atmosphere lashed by constant hurricane winds” (Leake, 2002, 11). Venus differs from Earth in one important respect: it has no tectonic plates that permit stresses to express themselves a little at a time, via earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The scientists’ research suggests that as recently as 500,000 years ago something (perhaps a surge of volcanic eruptions, long contained by the lack of tectonics) triggered runaway global warming that destroyed the Venusian climate and eventually boiled away the oceans (Leake, 2002, 11). According to this research, warming on Venus may have been accelerated by heat released into its atmosphere by billions of tons of carbon dioxide from rocks and, possibly, vegetation. Today, Venus’ atmosphere is mainly carbon dioxide. SURFACE WARMING, STRATOSPHERIC COOLING, AND OZONE DEPLETION

Greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere near the surface like a blanket, holding heat near the surface. Deprived of emitted warmth, the stratosphere cools, aggravating depletion of ozone, which protects plants and animals from ultraviolet radiation. Chemical reactions that drive

Global Warming Science

ozone depletion tend to accelerate as the stratosphere cools, retarding the restoration of ozone anticipated after the ban of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) under the Montreal Protocol, which was enacted during the late 1980s. As levels of greenhouse gases rise, the cooling of the middle and upper atmosphere is expected to continue, which will slow recovery from ozone depletion that was expected after CFCs were banned. Because of this relationship, problems with ozone depletion depend, in a fundamental way, on reduction of greenhouse warming as well as elimination of chemicals that consume ozone. The energetic nature of UV-B radiation can break the bonds of DNA molecules. While plants and animals are generally able to repair damaged DNA, on occasion damaged DNA molecules can continue to replicate, leading to dangerous forms of skin cancer in humans. The probability that DNA can be damaged by ultraviolet radiation varies with wavelength, shorter wavelengths being the most dangerous. The Antarctic ozone “hole” formed earlier and endured longer during the September and October of 2000 than ever before—and by a significant amount. Figures from NASA satellite measurements showed that the hole covered an area of approximately 29 million square kilometers in early September, exceeding the previous record from 1998. The region of depleted stratospheric ozone remained relatively stable through 2006, varying as weather conditions changed. In 2006, the Antarctic ozone hole was the largest on record, despite the nearly two-decade-old ban on CFCs. A year later, the zone of ozone depletion shrank due to milder temperatures in the stratosphere over Antarctica. REFERENCES Alley, R. B., J. Marotzke, W. D. Nordhaus, J. T. Overpeck, D. M. Peteet, R. A. Pielke Jr., R. T. Pierrehumbert, P. B. Rhines, T. F. Stocker, L. D. Talley, and J. M. Wallace. “Abrupt Climate Change.” Science 299 (March 28, 2003): 2005–2010. Arrhenius, Svante. “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground.” The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 5th ser. (April 1896): 237–276. Boyd, Robert S. “Carbon Dioxide Levels Surge; Global Emissions Rate Is Triple That of a Decade Ago.” McClatchy Newspapers in Calgary Herald, May 22, 2007, A-8. Byers, Stephen and Olympia Snowe. Meeting the Climate Challenge: Recommendations of the International Climate Change Task Force. London: Institute for Public Policy Research, January 2005. Callendar, G. D. “The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 64: 223–237. “Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere Increasing.” Associated Press in The New York Times, October 22, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-CarbonIncrease.html.

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Global Warming 101 “China Now Number One in Carbon Emissions; USA Number Two.” Environment News Service, June 19, 2007, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jun2007/ 2007-06-19-04.asp. Hansen, James and Larissa Nazarenko. “Soot Climate Forcing via Snow and Ice Albedos.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101(2) (January 13, 2004): 423–428. Hillman, Mayer and Tina Fawcett. The Suicidal Planet: How to Prevent Global Climate Catastrophe. New York: St. Martin’s Press/Thomas Dunne Books, 2007. Kahn, Joseph and Jim Yardley. “As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes.” The New York Times, August 26, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/ world/asia/26china.html. Keeling, C. D. and T. P. Whorf. “Atmospheric CO2 Records from Sites in the SIO Air Sampling Network.” In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, 2004. Kerr, Richard A. “A Variable Sun Paces Millennial Climate.” Science 294 (November 16, 2001): 1431–1432. Leake, Jonathan. “Fiery Venus Used to Be Our Green Twin.” The Sunday Times, December 15, 2002, 11. McCarthy, Michael. “Countdown to Global Catastrophe.” The Independent (London), January 24, 2005, 1. McFarling, Usha Lee. “Scientists Now Fear ‘Abrupt’ Global Warming Changes; Severe and ‘Unwelcome’ Shifts Could Come in Decades, Not Centuries, a National Academy Says in an Alert.” Los Angeles Times, December 12, 2001, A-30. O’Carroll, Cynthia. “NASA Blames Greenhouse Gases for Wintertime Warming.” UniSci (April 24, 2001), http://unisci.com/stories/20012/0424011.htm. Raupach, Michael R., Gregg Marland, Philippe Ciais, Corinne Le Quere, Josep G. Canadell, Gernot Klepper, and Christopher B. Field. “Global and Regional Drivers of Accelerating CO2 Emissions.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(24) (June 12, 2007): 10,288–10,293. “Research Finds That Earth’s Climate Is Approaching ‘Dangerous’ Point.” Press Release, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, May 29, 2007. Shindell, D. T., G. A. Schmidt, R. L. Miller, and D. Rind. “Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas, Ozone, Solar, and Volcanic Forcing.” Journal of Geophysical Research 106 (2001): 7193–7210. Solanki, S. K., I. G. Usoskin, B. Kromer, M. Schussler, and J. Beer. “Unusual Activity of the Sun during Recent Decades Compared to the Previous 11,000 Years.” Nature 431 (October 28, 2004): 1084–1086.

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Specifiic Issues in Global Warming Science How might global warming issues affect our everyday lives? Will recent heat waves (such as the one in Europe that killed 35,000 people in 2003) become more common? Increasing temperatures also cause storms to become more violent, and spells of dry weather more intense, in drought-and-deluge cycles. In some ways, these effects on the “hydrological cycle” (the way that nature handles water) have already begun, as temperatures rise. This chapter provides a number of specific examples, such as a one-day rainfall of 37 inches in Mumbai (Bombay), India during the 2005 monsoon. Even while some regions receive flooding rains, deserts are spreading in many drier areas due to changes in monsoon and other rainfall patterns. This chapter also describes the debate regarding global warming as one of several reasons why hurricanes may become more intense. Coming changes in climate may affect life in ways that few of us would recognize today. Maple syrup could become rare in New England, and banana trees may grow in English gardens. Low-lying cities may consider moving (the British government is already planning for the day when it may have to leave London, for example). A white Christmas may become just a memory for the vast majority of people even in middle latitudes. COULD EUROPE’S HEAT OF 2003 BECOME TYPICAL?

According to British scientists, Europe’s scorching heat wave of 2003 will be considered typical summer weather by the middle of the twentyfirst century and may be below average in 100 years. More than 35,000 people died in that heat wave, more than half of them in France. London recorded its first 100◦ day since records have been kept there, nearly 400 years. Temperatures reached 117◦ F in parts of Spain.

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British scientists made a case that the summer of 2003 was Europe’s hottest in southern, western, and central Europe in at least five centuries. From the eastern Atlantic to the Black Sea, the mercury was 2.3◦ C (4.14◦ F) above average. According to their models, by the 2040s, at least one European summer in two will be hotter than in 2003. By the end of this century, 2003 would be classed as a cooler-than-average summer relative to the new climate, the scientists wrote in Nature, December 2, 2004 (Phew, 2004). According to their models, summers in 2100 will be about 6◦ C (10.8◦ F) hotter than 2003’s averages. “We estimate it is very likely (confidence level more than 90 per cent) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heat wave exceeding this threshold magnitude,” wrote Peter A. Stott and colleagues (Stott et al., 2004, 610). They continued, “It seems likely that past human influence has more than doubled the risk of European summer temperature as hot as 2003, and with the likelihood of such events projected to increase 100-fold over the next four decades, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that potentially dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system is already underway” (Stott et al., 2004, 613). Separately, scientists at the French meteorological agency, Meteo France, said that they expect summer temperatures in France to rise by 4◦ C to 7◦ C (7.2◦ F to 12.6◦ F) by 2100. “By the end of the century, a summer with temperatures as we had in 2003 will be considered. . . cool,” said researcher Michel Deque (Phew, 2004). Gerald A. Meehl and Claudia Tebaldi studied heat waves in Chicago during 1995 and Paris during 2003, forecasting, according to a global climate model, that “future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting in the second half of the twentyfirst century” (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004, 994). They anticipate that areas which now suffer severe heat waves will probably experience more of the same: “The model show[s] that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases” (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004, 994). They concluded that “areas already experiencing strong heat waves (e.g., Southwest, Midwest, and Southeast United State and the Mediterranean region) could experience even more intense heat waves in the future” (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004, 997). Heat waves are often associated with semi-stationary high pressure at the surface and aloft which produce clear skies, light winds, warm-air advection, and prolonged hot conditions. Meehl and Tebaldi’s model

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science

suggests that these conditions will occur more frequently with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004, 996). DROUGHT AND DELUGE

While warmer temperatures will bring an increase of rainfall on the average, theory as well as an increasing number of daily weather reports strongly indicate that changes in precipitation patterns may vary widely. Such changes will be highly uneven and sometimes damaging in intensity. Both droughts and deluges are likely to become more severe. They may even alternate in some regions, with deluges followed by drought and vice versa. By 2000, the hydrological cycle (indicated by precipitation patterns) seemed to be changing more rapidly than temperatures. With sustained warming, usually wet places often seemed to be receiving more rain than before; dry places were often experiencing less rain and subject to more persistent droughts. Some drought-stricken regions occasionally were doused with brief deluges that ran off earth cracked by drought. In many places, the daily weather was increasingly becoming a question of drought or deluge. On July 21, 2007, for example, D’Hanis, near San Antonio in Texas, was severely flooded after 17 inches of rain fell in 12 hours. The same day, locations in southern and central England witnessed their worst flooding on record after a month’s worth of rain, as much as 5 inches, fell in one hour, following the wettest June in England’s history. One such location was Shakespeare’s Stratford-upon-Avon, which led some residents to remark that it had become Stratford-under-Avon. The floods displaced thousands of people and fouled the water for half a million. Once-in-a-century rains also flooded large parts of China, destroying 3.6 million homes and killing at least 500 people. At the same time, the Western United States was scorched by a record number of wildfires provoked by heat and drought. Andrew Revkin of The New York Times summarized the situation: “A warmer world is more likely to be a wetter one, experts warn, with more evaporation resulting in more rain, in heavy and destructive downpours. But in a troublesome twist, that world may also include more intense droughts, as the increased evaporation parches soils between occasional storms” (Revkin, 2002, A-10). “In a hotter climate, your chances of being caught with either too much or too little are higher,” said John M. Wallace, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington (Revkin, 2002, A–10).

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Even as rains inundated some places, the percentage of Earth’s land area affected by serious drought more than doubled between the 1970s and the early 2000s, according to an analysis by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. Increasing drought occurred over much of Europe and Asia, Canada, western and southern Africa, and eastern Australia. Rising global temperatures appear to be a major factor, said NCAR scientist Aiguo Dai (Dai et al., 2004, 1117). By 2007, Australia was suffering its worst drought in recorded history. The conditions were so dry that irrigation to some farms was being cut off, threatening their owners’ livelihood. Dai and colleagues found that the proportion of land areas experiencing very dry conditions increased from a 10 to 15 percent range during the early 1970s to about 30 percent by 2002. Almost half of that change was due to rising temperatures rather than decreases in rainfall or snowfall (Dai et al., 2004, 1117). “These results point to increased risk of droughts as human activity contributes to global warming,” said Dai (2004, 1117). The same patterns also hold for snowfall. “Lake-effect” snow on the southern and western shores of Lake Ontario in New York State can be a dramatic example. Oswego County, New York, received almost no lake-effect snow during December 2006 or January 2007 but was buried under more than 110 inches in seven days during February, as a relentless cold wind crossed an unfrozen Lake Ontario. Within eight days, some areas near Oswego had 10 feet of snow. In nearby Redfield, the National Weather Service reported that 141 inches had fallen in 10 days, a state record for a single storm event—the lake-effect championship, spurred by very cold air traversing relatively warm lake water, then colliding with colder earth that forced it to suddenly condense. In earlier years, the lake’s surface usually froze by January, cutting off most of the snowfall. In Buffalo, New York, which is well known for its bursts of heavy snow, storms have been becoming more intense in recent years for the same reason. By the end of the century, most of Buffalo’s snow may change to lake-effect rain. New York City’s highest recorded snowfall in Central Park, is 26.9 inches, recorded, February 12, 2006. P. C. D. Milly, writing in Nature about an increasing risk of floods in a changing climate, said, “We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue” (Milly et al., 2002, 514–515). The World Water Council report compiled statistics indicating that between 1971

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science

and 1995, floods affected more than 1.5 billion people worldwide, about 100 million people a year. An estimated 318,000 people were killed and more than 18 million left homeless during the quarter-century. The economic costs of these disasters rose to an estimated US$300 billion in the 1990s from about US$35 billion in the 1960s (Greenaway, 2003, A-5). DROUGHT AND DELUGE: MANY EXAMPLES

The summer of 2002 featured a number of climatic extremes, as excessive rain deluged Europe and Asia, swamping cities and villages and killing at least 2,000 people, while drought and heat scorched cities in the Western and Eastern United States. Climate contrarians argued that weather is always variable, but other observers noted that extremes seemed to be more frequent than before (Revkin, 2002, A-10). Also during the summer of 2002, near the Black Sea, a large tornado and heavy rains left at least 37 people dead and hundreds of vacationers stranded. During the same week, in China’s southern province of Hunan, 70 people died after rains caused landslides and floods. South Korea mobilized thousands of troops after a week that saw two-fifths of the average annual total rainfall (Townsend, 2002, 15). During the week of May 3–10, 2003, 562 tornadoes were reported in the United States, the largest weekly total since records began in the 1950s; this record was then surpassed in August 2004. After one of its driest summers on record, Seattle recorded its wettest month on record (with 15.63 inches of rain at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport) in November 2006. After an El Nino set in at Christmas of the same year, the weather in Seattle again became unusually dry. Omaha experienced its second wettest May on record in 2007 (with 10.4 inches of rain), followed by its driest June (with a quarter of an inch of rain). Even months not usually noted for tornado activity seemed to be getting more of it; September 2004, for example, also set a record for tornado sightings in the United States. During the third week of October 2007, an F-3 tornado ripped through Michigan, near Lansing, killing three people, a very unusual storm, for that time of year. Examples abound of increasing extremes in precipitation. November 2002, December 2002, and January 2003 were Minneapolis-St. Paul’s driest in recorded history. These followed the wettest June through October there in more than 100 years. In December 2002, Omaha recorded its first month on record with no measurable precipitation. In March 2003, having endured its driest year in recorded history during 2002, Denver, Colorado recorded 30 inches of snow in one storm. Snowfall on the drought-parched Front Range totaled as much as eight feet in the

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same storm. Fifteen months later, Denver’s weather let loose again; on June 9, 2004, suburbs north and west of the city received as much as 3 feet of hail. Residents used shovels to free their cars. The summer of 2003 was unusually dry in the Pacific Northwest; during the third week in October, however, Seattle recorded its wettest day on record, with 5.02 inches of rain. The night of July 27, 2004, Dallas, Texas, recorded a foot of rain and widespread flooding—as the U.S. West continued to endure its worst multiyear drought in at least 500 years. At times, the swift passage from drought to deluge can mimic Robert Frost’s legendary duality of fire and ice. In November 2003, for example, the Los Angeles area was scorched by its worst wildfires on record until that time (2007 was worse), driven by hot, desiccating Santa Ana winds that pushed temperatures to near 100◦ F. Less than two weeks later, parts of the Los Angeles Basin were pounded by a foot of pearl-sized hail. By 2007, Los Angeles was beset by its worst drought on record. The same month, drought-enhancing Santa Ana winds as strong as 100 miles an hour drove wildfires that expelled hundreds of thousands of people from their homes between San Diego and Malibu, California, during one of the area’s worst droughts on record. The Southeastern United States also was suffering its worst drought on record at the same time. The drought in the U.S. West was occasionally punctuated by localized deluges. On July 6, 2002, near Ogallala, Nebraska, as much as 10 inches of rain cascaded onto an area that was being plagued by extreme drought, running off the hardened soil, washing out sections of Interstate 80, killing a truck driver, and provoking evacuation of residents. Both approaches of a bridge over the South Platte River were washed out. “People I’ve talked to have never seen anything like this,” said Leonard Johnson, Mayor of Ogalalla (Olson, 2002, A-1). The rainfall in that one storm was two to three times the amount that had previously fallen in the area during the entire year of 2002. Nearly a year later, on the night of June 22, 2003, a stagnant supercell dumped 12 to 15 inches of rain (half the area’s annual average) south and east of Grand Island, Nebraska, an area that was also suffering intense drought at the time. The same storm spawned several tornadoes, killing one person and injuring several others. This storm, which destroyed large parts of Aurora, Nebraska, produced hail that was among the largest ever reported in the United States, as well as a tornado that stood virtually in one place for half an hour, devastating the town of Deshler. The island of Hispaniola (the Dominican Republic and Haiti) was seared by drought in 2003 and then drowned in floods that killed at least 2,000 people in May 2004. By the summer and early fall of 2004,

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science

the U.S. East Coast, which had experienced intense drought three years earlier, was drowning in record rainfall, part of which arrived courtesy the remains of four hurricanes that had devastated Florida. Similar reports of an intensifying hydrological cycle have been plentiful outside the United States. India, with its annual monsoon dry season that usually alternates with heavy rains, has adapted to a drought-deluge cycle. About 90 per cent of India’s precipitation falls between June and September during an average year, so heavy rain in Mumbai in late July is hardly unusual. On July 26 and 27, 2005, however, 37.1 inches of rain fell in Mumbai during 24 hours, the heaviest on record for an Indian city (and probably any city in the world) during one day and night. The deluge contributed to more than 1,000 deaths in and near Mumbai and the rest of the state of Maharashtra. Two years later, some of the heaviest monsoon rains in India’s history killed at least 2,800 people in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan in 2007. Several million people lost their homes. India’s monsoon has become more unpredictable in recent years. Drought years have become more intense and floods more devastating. Some years, parts of India drown in rain while others nearby are droughtstricken. The monsoon has always been noted for extremes (the history of India records many of them), but with warming, drought-or-deluge has become almost an annual affair. As warming continues, some climate models indicate that summers in India may become hotter, with rains often more fierce but erratic. WARMING AND SPREADING DESERTS

Since the 1970s, the number of very dry areas on Earth has more than doubled, as defined by the Palmer Drought Severity Index, to about 30 percent of the land area. As a major study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research has concluded, “These results provide observational evidence for the increasing risk of droughts as anthropogenic global warming progresses and produces both increased temperatures and increased drying” (Romm, 2007, 55). In March 2006, Phoenix, Arizona, set a record with more than 140 consecutive rainless days: In June, 45 percent of the contiguous United States was in a moderate-to-extreme state of drought. By July, the figure was 51 percent (Romm, 2007, 56). During the first 20 years of the twenty-first century, about 60 million people are expected to leave the Sahelian region of Africa if desertification is not halted, United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan said on June 17, 2002, the day set aside each year by the United Nations as the World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought. In northeast

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Asia, “[D]ust and sandstorms have buried human settlements and forced schools and airports to shut down,” Annan said, “while in the Americas, dry spells and sandstorms have alarmed farmers and raised the specter of another Dust Bowl, reminiscent of the 1930s.” In southern Europe, “lands once green and rich in vegetation are barren and brown,” he said (Global Climate Shift, 2002). Australian government researcher Dr. Leon Rotstayn has compiled evidence indicating that air pollution is a likely contributor to the catastrophic drought in the Sahel, a region of northern Africa that borders the fringe of the Sahara Desert. Sulfate aerosols, tiny atmospheric particles, have contributed to a global climate shift, he said. “The Sahelian drought may be due to a combination of natural variability and atmospheric aerosol,” said Rotstayn. “Cleaner air in future will mean greater rainfall in this region,” he continued (Global Climate Shift, 2002). “Global climate change is not solely being caused by rising levels of greenhouse gases. Atmospheric pollution is also having an effect,” said Rotstayn, who is affiliated with C.S.I.R.O., the Australian government’s climate change research agency. Using global climate simulations, Rotstayn found that sulfate aerosols, which are concentrated mainly in the northern hemisphere, make cloud droplets smaller. This makes clouds brighter and longer lasting, so they reflect more sunlight into space, cooling the Earth’s surface below (Global Climate Shift, 2002). As a result, the tropical rain belt, which migrates northward and southward with the seasonal movement of the sun, is weakened in the northern hemisphere and does not move as far north (Global Climate Shift, 2002). This change has had a major impact on the Sahel, which has experienced devastating drought since the 1960s. Rainfall was 20 to 49 percent lower than in the first half of the 20th century, causing widespread famine and death (Global Climate Shift, 2002). GLOBAL WARMING AND HURRICANES

The frequency and intensity of hurricanes (as well as the number hitting U.S. coastlines and inflicting major damage) have been rising during recent years, in an uneven trend. Any study that takes the record back to the 1970s indicates a very tight relationship between ocean warming, hurricane intensity, and air temperatures. However, during the 1950s and 1960s, air temperatures were generally cooler than during the 1980s, but water temperatures and hurricane intensity were higher— again, on an average. By 2005, the complexity of this issue had provoked a vibrant (some might even say, “testy”) debate between some hurricane experts

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science

regarding whether and to what degree, hurricane intensity and frequency was related to the overall warming trend. This debate often spilled over into the public realm as Florida and surrounding areas were smacked by four major hurricanes in 2004 and the 2005 hurricane season set records for the number of severe hurricanes. The same year also included some of the severest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Basin, including Katrina, which killed more than 1,000 people in and near New Orleans. The city also lost more than half of its population (falling from about 470,000 to about 220,000 according to the U.S. Census) between 2005 and 2006. The relationship between hurricane intensity and increasing temperatures is complicated by the fact that other factors have an important role in hurricane formation and strength. For example, El Nino (warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator) has a strong influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean because it intensifies wind shear in the atmosphere which tears the storms apart as they form. While the summers of 2004 and 2005 were notable for several devastating hurricanes, the 2006 hurricane season was relatively quiet, with very little loss of life or property to tropical storms. Water temperatures were similar during all of these summers. The major difference was El Nino conditions during the 2006 hurricane season. The strength of the West African monsoon, which spins off low-pressure systems that may become hurricanes, also plays a role (Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007, 465–468). All other things being equal, however, warmth does intensify hurricanes. They thrive on heat and fall apart if water temperatures fall below 80◦ F. Water temperatures (like air temperatures) sometimes vary, over periods of several decades, as the long-term trend “signal” provoked by warming raises them on average. For example, water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, which produces nearly all the hurricanes that have an impact on the United States of America, have been rising steadily, but gradually, since the 1970s, along with a general global rise in air temperatures. A study published in Nature on August 4, 2005 (Emanuel, 2005, 686– 688) indicated that the “dissipation of power” of Atlantic hurricanes had more than doubled in the previous 30 years, with a dramatic spike since 1995, due to global warming and other variations in ocean temperatures working together. The study, by Massachusetts Institute of Technology climate scientist Kerry Emanuel, was the first to indicate a statistical relationship between warming and storm intensity (Merzer, 2005).

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Hurricane Frances nears Florida, 2004 (NASA image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at Goddard Space Flight Center)

This trend reflects longer storm lifetimes and greater intensities, both of which Emanuel associates with increasing sea-surface temperatures. The large upswing in the last decade is unprecedented and probably reflects the effect of global warming. “My results suggest that future

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science

warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential and—taking into account an increasing coastal population— a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the 21st century,” Emanuel wrote (2005, 686). Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya’s models indicate that given sea-surface temperature increases of 0.8◦ C to 2.4◦ C, hurricanes would become 14 percent more intense (based on central pressure), with a 6 percent increase in maximum wind speeds and an 18 percent rise in average precipitation rates within 100 kilometers of storm centers. Tuleya is a hurricane expert who recently retired after 31 years at the Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and teaches at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia; Knutson is at Princeton University. “One implication of the results,” they wrote, “is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse –gas-induced warming may lead to a gradually increasing risk in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms” (Knutson and Tukeya, 2004, 3477). As an indication of how complex the origin of hurricanes can be, Johan Nyberg and colleagues reconstructed hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean for 270 years into the past, using proxy records for vertical wind shear and sea-surface temperature from corals and a marine sediment core. In an exercise of what scientists call “paleotempestology,” samples are taken from lagoons into which storm tides wash, an event associated with strong winds and storm surges that occur only during very strong tropical storms. Like all proxies, these are far from perfect. They do not, for example, account for changes in severe hurricanes’ paths, since they sample only a very small fraction of the area over which the storms move (Elsner, 2007, 648). Records would be required over a much larger area to give them value. Nyberg and colleagues found that the average frequency of major hurricanes decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1990s, reaching a long-term low cycle during the 1970s and 1980s. After 1995, frequency increased to levels similar to other periods of high intensity in their record, “and thus appears to represent a recovery to normal hurricane activity, rather than a direct response to increasing sea-surface temperatures” (Nyberg et al., 2007, 698). The upshot of this and other research is that while hurricanes are sustained by warm water, vertical wind shear (winds blowing from different directions at various heights that disturb hurricanes’ circulation) can tear them apart, dispersing storm-sustaining heat. This research raises other questions: El Nino conditions may be fostered by warming oceans, but El Nino conditions in

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the Pacific tend to cause above average wind shear in the Atlantic, which seems to tear up hurricanes’ circulation. The picture is not as simple, therefore, as equating warmer water with more frequent and intense hurricanes. William M. Gray, professor emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, is a long-standing opponent of the idea that warming temperatures have anything to do with hurricanes. According to his tally, between 1957 and 2006, 83 hurricanes hit the United States, 34 of them major. Between 1900 and 1949, 101 hurricanes hit the same area, 39 of which were major, with wind speeds above 110 miles an hour. From 1966 to 2006, says Gray, only 22 major hurricanes hit the United States, whereas between 1925 and 1965, 39 such storms hit the same area. “Even though global mean temperatures have risen by an estimated 0.4◦ C and CO2 by 20 percent, the number of major hurricanes hitting the United States declined,” Gray (2007, A-12) wrote. Since 1995, however, the number of major storms hitting the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts has risen sharply. Gray associates the increase with strengthening circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical cyclones have also been forming during recent years in places where they occur very rarely, if at all. During June 2007, for example, Tropical Cyclone Gonu, with sustained winds of more than 120 miles per hour, churned 35-foot-high waves and then struck Oman, on the Arabian peninsula, causing at least 13 deaths. The storm was the strongest on record in the northwestern Arabian Sea. The cyclone hit the Omani coastal towns of Sur and Ras al Hadd with sustained winds over 100 miles an hour. Judith Curry, a hurricane expert at Georgia Tech, said the cyclone’s strength was “really rather amazing” for the region, and appeared to be amplified by sea temperatures hovering around 87◦ F. Even when weakened, she said, the storm could prove disastrous in Oman or Iran. “Cyclones are very rare in this region and hence governments and people are unprepared,” she said (Revkin, 2007).

Ss

Climate Change in New England; Goodbye, Maple Syrup New England’s maple trees require cold weather to yield the sap that becomes syrup; they yield less sap in warmer winters. An analysis of syrup production between 1920 and 2000 indicated a decline in every New England state except Maine. At the same time, titmice, red-bellied woodpeckers, northern cardinals, and mockingbirds are being observed more often at bird

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science

feeders in Vermont. All of these birds have migrated from more southerly latitudes as temperatures have increased. University of New Hampshire forester Rock Barrett, who supervised the survey, said that pervasive warming already might have doomed New England’s maple syrup industry. “I think the sugar maple industry is on its way out, and there isn’t much you can do about that,” he said. Even in 2002, however, roughly one in four Vermont trees still was a sugar maple. Vermonters made almost 60 percent of New England’s 850,000 gallons of syrup that year, according to federal farm data (Donn, 2002). Much of New England could lose its maple forests during the twenty-first century in favor of the oak and hickory that are dominant further south. Already, during recent decades, the greatest expansion of syrup production has occurred to the north, in colder Quebec. During a decade ending in 2002, yearly production there has doubled to satisfy a booming market, which by the year 2000 surpassed the United States fivefold, according to the North American Maple Syrup Council (Donn, 2002). Over the last 80 years, New England’s typical syrup output has dropped by more than half, from more than 1.6 million gallons a year to less than 800,000 gallons.

Ss WARMING AND NORTH AMERICA’S WATER SUPPLIES

A temperature rise of 2◦ F could have dramatic impacts on water resources across western North America, according to scientific teams that have warned of reduced snow packs and more intense flooding as temperatures rise. This research was the first time that global climate modelers have worked with teams running detailed regional models of snowfall, rain, and stream flows to predict what warming will do to the area. The researchers were surprised by the size of the effects generated by a small rise in temperature (Warmer Climate, 2001). In a warmer world, warmer winters would raise the average snow level, reducing mountain snow packs, the researchers told the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco during 2001 (Warmer Climate, 2001). The impact of warming on mountains of California reflects similar changes in other areas of North America that rely on snow pack for water and power. According to the scientists’ models, “Huge areas of the snow pack in the Sierra [Nevada] went down to 15 per cent of today’s values,” said Michael Dettinger, a research hydrologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, “That caught everyone’s attention” (Warmer Climate, 2001). The researchers also anticipated that by the middle of the twenty-first century melting snow may cause streams to reach their annual peak flow up as much as a month

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earlier than at present. With rains melting snow or drenching alreadysaturated ground, the risk of extreme late-winter and early-spring floods will rise, even as the diminishing snow pack’s ability to provide water later in the summer declines. Thus, water consumers may face a frequent paradox: spring floods followed by summer droughts (Warmer Climate, 2001). Because reservoirs cannot be filled until the risk of flooding is past, the models anticipate that within a half-century they will trap only 70 to 85 percent as much runoff as today. This is a particular problem for California, where agriculture, industry, growing population, and environmental needs already compete for limited water supplies (Warmer Climate, 2001). Observations support the models. Iris Stewart, a climate researcher at the University of California, San Diego, has found that during the last 50 years runoff in the western United States and Canada have been peaking progressively earlier because of a region-wide trend towards warmer winters and springs (Warmer Climate, 2001). Water supplies in the U.S. West could decline by as much as 30 percent by 2050, by one estimate. “This is just one study where we didn’t find anything good: It’s a train wreck,” said marine physicist Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego (Vergano, 2002, 9-D). The Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) pilot study late in 2002 released snow and rain forecasts for specific regions during the next five decades. Funded largely by the energy department, the projections said the following: r Reduced rainfall and mountain snow runoff may reduce water released by the Colorado River to cities such as Phoenix and Los Angeles by 17 percent and cut hydroelectric power from dams along the river by 40 percent. r Along the Columbia River system in the Pacific Northwest, water levels may drop so low that simultaneous use for irrigation and power generation will not permit any salmon spawning. Snow packs that supply the river may drop 30 percent, moving the peak runoff time forward one month. r In California’s Central Valley, “It will be impossible to meet current water system performance levels,” which could hurt water supplies, reduce hydropower generation, and cause dramatic increases in saltiness in the Sacramento Delta and San Francisco Bay (Vergano, 2002, 9-D).

“The physics is very simple: Higher temperatures mean there is more rain than snow, and the spring melt comes earlier,” said Barnett, who headed the two-year project (Vergano, 2002, 9-D).

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science

Ss

White Christmases Soon to be a Memory? Statistics provided by researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory that examined weather records of 16 cities, mainly in the northern United States after 1960, indicated that the number of white Christmases declined between the 1960s and the 1990s. In Chicago, for example, the number of white Christmases (defined as at least one inch of snow on the ground) dropped from seven in the 1960s to two during the 1990s. In New York, the number declined from five during the 1960s to one during the 1990s, Detroit had just three white Christmases during the 1990s compared to nine in the 1960s (Are White, 2001). The snowfall analysis was performed by Dale Kaiser, a meteorologist with the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Kevin Birdwell, a meteorologist in the lab’s Computational Science and Engineering Division.

Ss WARMING AND WILD WEATHER IN GREAT BRITAIN

In central England, the growing season has lengthened by one month since 1900, with an annual temperature increase of 1◦ C. Even before Europe’s searing summer of 2003, climate change had become an important factor in English political discussions. Climate change joined the political agenda under Margaret Thatcher, who taught chemistry before becoming prime minister. A staunch conservative on most subjects, Thatcher understood the science of climate change to a degree shared by few other political figures. The British government is among the world’s most acutely aware of global warming’s potential consequences. In stark contrast to the United States, where the George W. Bush administration long ignored the problem, British officials sounded sharp and frequent warnings. “In recent years more and more people have accepted that climate change is happening and will affect the lives of our children and grandchildren. I fear we need to start worrying about ourselves as well,” said Margaret Beckett, secretary of the British government’s Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. (Clover, 2002, 1). The worst storm experienced by England in a decade caused road and rail chaos across the country, killed six people, and left hundreds of millions of pounds worth of damage in its wake on October 30, 2000. Torrential rain and winds as strong as 90 miles per hour uprooted trees, blocked roads, and cut electricity supplies across southern England and Wales. According to newspaper reports, a tornado ripped through a

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trailer park in Selsey in West Sussex less than 48 hours after a similar twister had devastated parts of Bognor Regis. In Yorkshire, the first blizzards of the winter coincided with flash floods. English weather record keepers said that October’s rainfall in East Sussex, one of the driest parts of the country, had been nearly three times its average, at 226 millimeters (9 inches). September had also been exceptionally wet. Marilyn McKenzie Hedger, head of the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program based at Oxford University, said, “These events should be a wake-up call to everyone to discover how we are going to cope with climate change.” (Brown, 2000, 1) Michael Meacher, U.K. environment minister, said that while it would be foolish to blame global warming every time extreme weather conditions occur, “[t]he increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate phenomena” suggested “that although global warming” was “certainly not the sole cause,” it was “very likely to be a major contributory factor” (Brown, 2000, 1). AN “ORDERLY RETREAT” OF GOVERNMENT FROM LONDON?

During 2004, a panel of 60 British climate change experts released a government-sponsored report, “Future Flooding,” which asserted that the homes of as many as 4 million Britons might be at risk by 2050. The report said that the national cost of flooding might rise from $2.6 billion a year about 2000 to $52 billion annually by 2080. Some government officials warned that the government might be forced to consider an “orderly retreat” from London because parts of the 2,000-year-old city are below sea level. Professor Paul Samuels, who is leading a Europewide study of flooding, said London could be “mostly gone in the next few centuries” (Melvin, 2004, 3-A). The flooding report said that Britain must create “green corridors” in cities to act as safety valves into which floodwaters can be channeled. It said parts of some urban areas might have to be abandoned and oil refineries moved inland. Many homes, it warned, might become uninsurable. Samuels, who suggested that the government retreat from London, was working on the premise that the tidal section of the Thames River would rise as much as to 3 feet in a century, a situation made worse by the subsidence of the land on which some of London is built (Melvin, 2004, 3-A). PALM TREES AND BANANA PLANTS IN ENGLISH GARDENS?

Traditional English gardens have been changing as the climate warms, as described in an Associated Press dispatch carried in Canada’s Financial Post:

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science The fabled English garden with its velvety green lawn and vivid daffodils, delphiniums and bluebells is under threat from global warming, leading conservation groups said late in 2002. Within the next 50 to 80 years, palm trees, figs and oranges may find themselves more at home in Britain’s hotter, drier summers, the National Trust and the Royal Horticultural Society said, releasing a new report on the impact of climate change. Gardening in the Global Greenhouse: The Impacts of Climate Change on Gardens in the U.K. was commissioned by the two organizations and the government, as well as water, forestry and botanical organizations. (Woods, 2002, S-10)

Reading University scientists Richard Bisgrove and Paul Hadley forecast “fewer frosts, earlier springs, higher year-round temperatures, increased winter rainfall (increasing risk of flooding), and hotter, drier summers (increasing the risk of drought)” (Woods, 2002, S-10). “While there will be greater opportunities to grow exotic fruits and subtropical plants, increased winter rainfall will present difficulties for Mediterranean species which dislike waterlogging,” said Andrew Colquhoun, director general of the Royal Horticultural Society (Woods, 2002, S-10). A large number of cool weather plants are likely to suffer, according to this report, including “snowdrops, crocuses, rhododendrons, ferns and mosses, along with bluebells and daffodils. It wouldn’t be impossible to grow delphiniums, the Royal Horticultural Society said, but they would be more difficult to grow. The Society said gardeners could expect to see more palms, grapes, citrus fruit, figs and apricots, as well as colorful climbers like plumbago and bougainvillea. New pests from southern climates—such as the rosemary beetle, berberis sawfly, and the lily beetle—were now established in Britain, the society said (Woods, 2002, S-10). The Chelsea Flower Show in May 2002 “strongly reflected the trend for Mediterranean-style plants suitable for dry conditions” (Johnson, 2002, 5). Climate models for England projected warmer, drier summers and wetter winters. Landscape architects are faced with a paradox of finding plants that can survive hotter, drier summers while building landscapes that can carry off a larger volume of winter floodwaters. Guy Barter, head of the Royal Horticultural Society’s advisory service, said, “Olive trees, grapes, avocados and even banana plants could all become common garden features. The air could be full of the scent of acacia.. . .We will also see more gardens with heat-resistant trees, and cacti and yucca. But the problem will be flooding in winter” (Johnson, 2002, 5).

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A dead kangaroo on drought-affected plain in Australia ( Jeff Dixon) WILDFIRES, DROUGHT, AND FLOODS INCREASE IN AUSTRALIA

During the 1950s and 1960s, Australia built reservoirs that were supposed to protect against droughts lasting several years. These gave the country the highest storage capacity per person in the world. Together with hundreds of miles of irrigation conduits, Australia was said, at the time, to be “drought-proof.” Searing heat and pervasive drought after the year 2000 changed that. Melbourne’s water storage was 28 percent of its capacity by mid-2007; Sydney’s was 37 percent, and Perth’s was 15 percent. In May, brief, heavy rains hit the Hunter Valley north of Sydney but did little to help. The land was so dry that the torrential rains vanished (Nowak, 2007, 10). Human-induced global warming was a key factor in the severity of the drought in Australia, the worst in the country’s history, according to a report by World Wildlife Fund Australia (WWFA). The report, titled Global Warming Contributes to Australia’s Worst Drought, by David Karoly, James Risbey, and Anna Reynolds associated the drought’s intensity of the present drought with increasing temperatures. By early 2003, 71 percent

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science

Australia was in serious or severe drought. In some areas, the drought was pervasive—97 percent of New South Wales was drought-stricken, according to the report (Macken, 2003, 61). The drought continued until at least 2007 (as this book was being written). The city of Brisbane was even considering recycling its sewage water, and the possibility that irrigation might be sharply cut in some of the country’s most fertile farming areas was increasing, as city residents in Sydney rationed water. As southeast Australia experienced its worst drought in a century, hundreds of kangaroos headed towards the capital city, Canberra, appearing on golf courses and sports fields in search of grass to eat. Hundreds of them were shot to death “by professional gunmen as growing numbers [of people] perceived [the kangaroos as] a threat to the capital’s 320,000-strong population” (Why We’re All, 2004). During the summers of 2002 and 2003, wildfires pushed by raging hot, dry winds from Australia’s interior seared parts of Canberra, destroying hundreds of homes, killing four people, and forcing thousands to flee the area. “I have seen a lot of bush fire scenes in Australia. . .but this is by far the worst,” Australia’s prime minister, John Howard, said (Australia Assesses, 2003, A-4). Flames spread through undergrowth and exploded as they hit oil-filled eucalyptus trees. During 2002 and 2003, drought knocked 1 percent off Australia’s gross domestic product and cost $6.8 billion in exports. It reduced the size of Australia’s cattle herds by 5 percent and its sheep flocks by 10 percent (Macken, 2004, 61). Economic damage continued in the following years. Perth’s first desalination plant was completed in 2006, with a wind farm meant to provide the 24 megawatts required to operate it. Perth now draws 17 percent of its water from that plant. Sydney and Melbourne are now building desalination plants. Some industries, such as BHP Billiton’s copper and uranium mines in the South, may also build their own plants. The plants use a great deal of energy and leave behind a salty mush that will harm whatever land or water is used for disposal. Brisbane’s government is talking of recycling sewage after its main water supply runs dry, probably in 2009 (Nowak, 2007, 11). JAPAN: HEAT ISLAND TOKYO

According to The Daily Yomiuri of Tokyo, temperatures in several Japanese cities averaged between 3.2◦ C and 3.9◦ C above long-term averages during the winter of 2001–2002. The increase in temperatures was most notable in and around Tokyo. During the early-morning hours (midnight to 5 a.m.), average temperatures in Tokyo have risen by 7.2◦ F

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in a century. In 1900, the number of “tropical nights” with minimum temperatures above 77◦ F was zero to five in an average summer. By the early twenty-first century, the number of such nights reached 30 to 40 during most summers (Brooke, 2002, A-3). On July 20, 2004, the temperature in Tokyo hit a record-breaking 39.5◦ C (103.1◦ F), the hottest temperature recorded there since records began in 1923. Tokyo winters also have become milder, with nighttime temperatures rarely dropping below freezing even in winter. Snow in Tokyo is increasingly rare. None at all fell there during the winter of 2001–2002. Leaves used to start turning color around the end of November, said Shinsuke Hagiwara, chief researcher of The Institute for Nature Study. “Now they only start in mid-December,” he added (Brooke, 2002, A-3). During the spring of 2002, cherry blossoms in Tokyo opened so early that when Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi held the government’s annual cherry blossom viewing party in April, the blossoms had fallen from the trees. A type of mosquito carrying dengue fever, usually found in warmer places, by 2002 had expanded its range to 60 miles north of Tokyo, according to Mutsuo Kobayashi, a medical entomologist (Brooke, 2002, A-3). People in rural Japan also tell stories of unusual warming. In rural areas as well as Tokyo, cherry blossoms have been blooming earlier than in the past, leaving people to “hold their blossom-viewing parties under leaves instead of flowers” (Hatsuhisa, 2002). The Prefecture of Niigata on the Sea of Japan, 2 hours north of Tokyo by bullet train, which once was known for heavy “ocean effect” snows carried by cold air from Siberia, reported a scarcity of snow during the winter of 2001–2002. During March 2002, no snow fell there for the first time since weather records had been kept (Hatsuhisa, 2002). (Snows returned during some of the following winters, however.) Many resorts that depend on snowfall (mostly for skiing) were forced to close. During the same month, twothirds of Japan’s weather observation stations reported their highest temperatures in a statistical record that, in most cases, reaches to 1886. REFERENCES “Are White Christmases [to be] Just a Memory?” Environment News Service, December 21, 2001, http://ens-news.com/ens/dec2001/2001L-12-21-09.html. “Australia Assesses Fire Damage in Capital.” Omaha World-Herald, January 20, 2003, A-4. Brooke, James. “‘Heat Island’ Tokyo Is Global Warming’s Vanguard.” The New York Times, August 13, 2002, A-3. Brown, Paul. “Global Warming: It’s with Us Now; Six Dead As Storms Bring Chaos Throughout the Country.” London Guardian, October 31, 2000, 1.

Specific Issues in Global Warming Science Clover, Charles. “2002 ‘Warmest for 1,000 Years.’” London Daily Telegraph, April 26, 2002, 1. Dai, Aiguo, Kevin E. Trenberth, and Taotao Qian. “A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming.” Journal of Hydrometeorology 5(6) (December 2004): 1117–1130. Donn, Jeff. “New England’s Brilliant Autumn Sugar Maples—and Their Syrup—Threatened by Warmth.” Associated Press, September 23, 2002 (in LEXIS). Donnelly, Jeffrey P., and Jonathan D. Woodruff. “Intense Hurricane Activity over the Past 5,000 Years Controlled by El Ni˜ no and the West African Monsoon.” Nature 447 (May 24, 2007): 465–468. Elsner, James B. “Tempests in Time.” Nature 447 (June 7, 2007): 647–648. Emanuel, Kerry. “Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Storms over the Past 30 Years.” Nature 436 (August 4, 2005): 686–688. “Global Climate Shift Feeds Spreading Deserts.” Environment News Service, June 17, 2002, http://ens-news.com/ens/jun2002/2002-06-17-03.asp. Gray, William M. “Hurricanes and Hot Air.” The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2007, A-12. Greenaway, Norma. “Disaster Toll from Weather Up Tenfold: Droughts, Floods Need More Damage Control, Report Says.” Edmonton Journal, February 28, 2003, A-5. Hatsuhisa, Takashima. “Climate.” Journal of Japanese Trade and Industry (September 1, 2002) (in LEXIS). Johnson, Andrew. “Climate to Bring New Gardening Revolution; Hot Summers and Wet Winters Could Kill Our Best-loved Plants.” London Independent, May 12, 2002, 5. Knutson, Thomas R., and Robert E. Tukeya. “Impact of CO2 -Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization.” Journal of Climate 17(18) (September 15, 2004): 3477–3495. Macken, Julie. “The Double-whammy Drought.” The Australian Financial Review, May 4, 2003, 61. Meehl, Gerald A., and Claudia Tebaldi. “More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century.” Science 305 (August 13, 2004): 994–997. Melvin, Don. “There’ll Always Be an England? Study of Global Warming Says Sea Is Winning.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, June 5, 2004, 3-A. Merzer, Martin. “Study: Global Warming Likely Making Hurricanes Stronger.” Miami Herald, August 1, 2005 (in LEXIS). Milly, P. C. D., R. T. Wetherald, K. A. Dunne, and T. L. Delworth. “Increasing Risk of Great Floods in a Changing Climate.” Nature 415 (January 30, 2002): 514–517. Nowak, Rachel. “The Continent That Ran Dry.” The New Scientist, June 16, 2007, 8–11. Nyberg, Johan, Bjorn A. Malmgren, Amos Winter, Mark R. Jury, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, and Terrence M. Quinn. “Low Atlantic Hurricane Activity in the 1970s and 1980s Compared to the Past 270 years,” Nature 447 (June 7, 2007): 698–701.

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Global Warming 101 Olson, Jeremy. “Flash Flooding Closes I-80.” Omaha World-Herald, July 7, 2002, A-1. “Phew, What a Scorcher—and It’s Going to Get Worse.” Agence France Presse, December 1, 2004 (in LEXIS). Revkin, Andrew C. “Forecast for a Warmer World: Deluge and Drought.” The New York Times, August 28, 2002, A-10. ———. “Cyclone Nears Iran and Oman.” The New York Times, June 6, 2007, http:// www.nytimes.com/2007/06/06/world/middleeast/06storm.html. Romm, Joseph. Hell and High Water: Global Warming—the Solution and the Politics—and What We Should Do. New York: William Morrow, 2007. Stott, Peter A., D. A. Stone, and M. R. Allen. “Human Contribution to the European Heatwave of 2003.” Nature 432 (December 2, 2004): 610–613. Townsend, Mark. “Monsoon Britain: As Storms Bombard Europe, Experts Say That What We Still Call ‘Freak’ Weather Could Soon Be the Norm.” London Observer, August 11, 2002, 15. Vergano, Dan. “Global Warming May Leave West in the Dust By 2050; Water Supplies Could Plummet 30 Per Cent, Climate Scientists Warn.” USA Today, November 21, 2002, 9-D. “Warmer Climate Could Disrupt Water Supplies.” Environment News Service, December 20, 2001, http://ens-news.com/ens/dec2001/2001L-12-20-09.html. “Why We’re All Being Caught on the Hop by Global Warming.” Irish Independent, July 17, 2004 (in LEXIS). Woods, Audrey. “English Gardens Disappearing in Global Warmth: Will Be Replaced by Palm Trees.” Financial Post,[Canada] November 20, 2002, S-10.

3

Melting Ice The most obvious indication that the Earth is steadily warming has been the steady erosion of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic and on mountain glaciers. Although a few exceptions do exist, the worldwide erosion of ice leaves little doubt that the Earth has experienced steady warming for at least a century. The melting of ice is important not only for Arctic, Antarctic, and mountain ecosystems, but also for hundreds of millions of people living at lower elevations who depend upon glacier melt for water and electricity generation. Many millions more people around the Earth who live on or near coasts and islands have felt (and will feel) the effects of global ice melt through gradually rising sea levels. According to NASA satellite surveys, perennial (year-round) sea ice in the Arctic has been declining at a rate of 9 percent per decade (Stroeve et al., 2005). During 2002, summer sea ice was at record low levels, a trend that persisted in 2003 through 2006. During the summer of 2004, enough Arctic ice to blanket Texas twice over disappeared. In 2005, the Arctic ice cap shrunk to a record low size. In 2006 it was only slightly larger than that; a year later another record low ice cap was detected by satellites. During September 2007, the Arctic ice cap shrunk to its smallest extent since records have been kept, 1.59 million square miles, versus the previous record low of 2.04 square miles in 2005, more than a 23 percent loss of ice cover, an area the size of Texas and California combined. During the past 40 years, Arctic sea ice also has thinned by more than 60 percent—from an average thickness of 9 feet to about 3 feet. According to research by scientists at the University College London and British Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Arctic ice thinned from 3.5 meters (11.5 feet) 30 years ago to less than

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2 meters (6 to 7 feet) in 2003. By 2007 large areas of Arctic sea ice were only about one meter thick, half what they were in 2001, according to measurements taken by an international team of scientists aboard the research ship Polarstern. “The ice cover in the North Polar Sea is dwindling, the ocean and the atmosphere are becoming steadily warmer, the ocean currents are changing,” said chief scientist Ursula Schauer, from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, aboard the Polarstern in the Arctic Ocean (Arctic Ocean Ice, 2007). By the middle of the twenty-first century, according to NASA projections, the Arctic could be ice-free during the summer months. By September 2007, several studies indicated that Arctic ice was melting even faster than that. The studies also forecast that “future loss of Arctic sea ice may be more rapid and extensive than predicted” (Melting Faster, 2007). An ice-free Arctic in late summer could now occur by 2020, or even earlier, by many projections. In the meantime, new data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado said that melting ice in the Arctic by 2007 had reached a “tipping point” beyond which human control would be impossible (Arctic Sea Ice, 2007).

Ss

A February Thunderstorm in the Arctic Climate change in the Arctic has been occurring with a speed that is difficult for people from lower latitudes to understand. For example, on March 1, 2006, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference (and later a nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize) wrote from her home in Iqaluit on Baffin Island that temperatures there were 60◦ F above average in a thunderstorm, with ice melting in winter, a type of weather never before seen there. Last night on February 26th on my daughter’s 30th birthday so much rain fell that I woke up to several puddles and pools of water in my tundra backyard and since it was 6 above [C] today the puddles [and] pools were not freezing. There was even lightning last night here in the Arctic on a February night. Much of the snow is melted on the back of my house and all the roads are already slushy and messy. All planes coming up from the south were cancelled because the runways were icy from the rain. I think Pangnirtung [a town north of Iqaluit] has been hit very hard with high winds and again the forecast for them tomorrow is 8 above [C]. One would think we were [in] April already! High winds are still gusting up to 90 kilometers [per hour] as I write this and rain is forecast tonight again. Unfortunately the predictions of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment are unfolding before my very eyes. (Watt-Cloutier, 2006)

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Watt-Cloutier continued, One of my friends said today the first thing she thought of were the caribou and how hard it is going to be for them to try and get to the lichen under the ice when it gets cold again and everything freezes. She said she was going to encourage her husband to go and get caribou soon while they are still healthy as come spring they will surely be skinny and not as healthy as they normally would had it not rained so much at this time of year and created that crust of ice separating them from their food source. (Watt-Cloutier 2006)

Ss EROSION OF ARCTIC ICE

Warming is being felt most intensely in the Arctic, where a world based on ice and snow has been melting away. Arctic sea ice cover shrank more dramatically between 2002 and 2006 than at any time since detailed records have been kept. A report produced by 250 scientists under the auspices of the Arctic Council found that Arctic sea ice was half as thick in 2003 as it was 30 years earlier. If present rates of melting continue, there may be no summer ice in the Arctic by 2070, according to the study. (After record ice melt in 2007, that date was moved up about 50 years.) Pal Prestrud, vice-chairman of the steering committee for the report, said, “Climate change is not just about the future; it is happening now. The Arctic is warming at twice the global rate” (Harvey, 2004, 1). During the summer of 2004, enough Arctic ice to blanket Texas twice over was lost. In the past, low-ice years were often followed by recovery in years following, when cold winters allowed ice to build up or cool summers kept ice from melting. That kind of balancing cycle stopped after 2002. “If you look at these last few years, the loss of ice we’ve seen, well, the decline is rather remarkable,” said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado (Human, 2004, B-2). The year 2004 was the third year in a row with extreme ice losses, indicating acceleration of the melting trend. Arctic ice has been declining about 8 percent per decade, and the trend is accelerating. PERSONAL STORIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The destruction of an Arctic ecosystem heretofore based on ice and snow is now a day-to-day reality in the lives of people who live near or above the Arctic Circle. Their personal stories indicate that the atmosphere is warming more rapidly in parts of the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth. Around the Arctic, in Inuit villages now connected by

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email as well as the oral history of traveling hunters, weather watchers are reporting striking evidence that global warming is an unmistakable reality. Weather reports from the Arctic sometimes read like the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on fast-forward. These personal stories support IPCC expectations that climate change will be felt most dramatically in the Arctic. Addressing a Senate Commerce Committee hearing on global warming on August 15, 2004, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, speaking as president of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference, said, “The Earth is literally melting. If we can reverse the emissions of greenhouse gases in time to save the Arctic, then we can spare untold suffering.” She continued, “Protect the Arctic and you will save the planet. Use us as your early-warning system. Use the Inuit story as a vehicle to reconnect us all so that we can understand the people and the planet are one” (Pegg, 2004). The Inuits’ ancient connection to their hunting culture might disappear within her grandson’s lifetime, Watt-Cloutier said. “My Arctic homeland is now the health barometer for the planet” (Pegg, 2004). Committee chair John McCain, an Arizona Republican, said a recent trip to the Arctic showed him that “these impacts are real and consistent with earlier scientific projects that the Arctic region would experience the impacts of climate change at a faster rate than the rest of the world. We are the first generation to influence the climate and the last generation to escape the consequences,” McCain said (Pegg, 2004). Sachs Harbour, on Banks Island, above the Arctic Circle, is sinking into the permafrost as its 130 residents swat mosquitoes. Summer downpours of rain with thunder, hail, and lightning have swept over Arctic islands for the first time in anyone’s memory. Swallows, sand flies, robins, and pine pollen are being seen and experienced by people who have never known them. Shishmaref, an Inuit village on the far-western lip of Alaska 60 miles north of Nome is being washed into the newly liquid (and often stormy) Arctic Ocean as its permafrost base dissolves. During the summer of 2004, several Vespula intermedia (yellow-jacket wasps) were sighted in Arctic Bay, a community of 700 people on the northern tip of Baffin Island, at more than 73◦ North latitude. Noire Ikalukjuaq, the mayor of Arctic Bay, photographed one of the wasps at the end of August. Ikalukjuaq, who said he knew no word in Inuktitut (the Inuits’ language) for the insect, reported that other people in the community also had seen wasps at about the same time (Rare Sighting, 2004). In the Eskimo village of Kaktovik, Alaska, on the Arctic Ocean roughly 250 miles north of the Arctic Circle, a robin built a nest in town during

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2003—not an unusual event in more temperate latitudes but quite a departure from the usual in a place where, in the Inupiat Eskimo language, no name exists for robins. In the Okpilak River valley, which had been too cold and dry for willows, they are sprouting profusely. Never mind the fact that and in the Inupiat language “Okpilak” means “river with no willows” (Kristof, 2003).

Ss

Arctic Warming and Inuit Hunters The Arctic’s rapid thaw has made hunting, which is never a safe nor easy way of life, even more difficult and dangerous. Hunters in and around Iqaluit say that the weather has been seriously out of whack since roughly the middle 1990s. Simon Nattaq, an Inuit hunter, fell through unusually thin ice and became trapped in icy water long enough to lose both his legs to hypothermia, one of several injuries and deaths reported around the Arctic recently due to thinning ice (Johansen, 2001, 19). Pitseolak Alainga, another Iqaluit-based hunter, says that climate change compels caution. One must never hunt alone, he says (Nattaq had been hunting by himself). Before venturing onto ice in fall or spring hunters should test its stability with a harpoon, he says. Alainga knows the value of safety on the water. His father and five other men died during late October 1994, after an unexpected late-October ice storm swamped their hunting boat. The younger Alainga and another companion barely escaped death in the same storm. He believes that more hunters are suffering injuries not only because of climate change but also because basic survival skills are not being passed from generation to generation as in years past, when most Inuits lived off the land (Johansen, 2001, 19).

Ss SURFACE ALBEDO (REFLECTIVITY) SPEEDS WARMING

The melting of ocean ice in polar regions can accelerate overall worldwide warming as it changes surface albedo, or reflectivity. The darker a surface, the more solar energy it absorbs. Seawater absorbs 90 to 95 percent of incoming solar radiation, whereas snow-free sea ice absorbs only 60 to 70 percent of solar energy. If the sea ice is snow-covered, the amount of absorbed solar energy decreases substantially, to only 10 to 20 percent. Therefore, as the oceans warm and snow and ice melt, more solar energy is absorbed, leading to even more melting. “It is feeding on itself now, and this feedback mechanism is actually accelerating the decrease in sea ice,” said Mark Serreze of the University of Colorado (Toner, 2003, 1-A).

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Changes in albedo (Latin for “whiteness”) are among the factors contributing to a rate of warming in the Arctic during the last 20 years that has been eight times the rate of warming during the previous 100 years (Recent Warming, 2003). Recent increases in the number and extent of boreal forest fires have also been increasing the amount of soot in the atmosphere, which also changes albedo. As high latitudes warm and the coverage of sea ice declines, thawing Arctic soils also may release significant amounts of carbon dioxide and methane now trapped in permafrost. Warmer ocean waters could also release formerly solid methane and carbon dioxide from the sea floor. According to David Rind, of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, “These feedbacks are complex and we are working to understand them. Global warming is usually viewed as something that’s 50 or 100 years in the future, but we have evidence that the climate of the Arctic is changing right now, and changing rapidly. Whatever is causing it, we are going to have to start adapting to it” (Toner, 2003, 1-A). Study of past climates show that the Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to relatively small changes in the atmosphere. This sensitivity allows the entire planet to change climate very quickly. One feedback, the “albedo flip,” provides a powerful trigger mechanism. James Hansen and other researchers write, “Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures” (Hansen et al., 2007).

Ss

Glacier Tourists Glaciers were melting so quickly in Alaska by mid-2005 that their anticipated demise was causing some tourists to visit before they disappear. The Travel Section of The New York Times featured the so-called glacier tourists, with the headline “The Race to Alaska Before It Melts” (Egan, 2005). Cities and towns across the entire state (including Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, and Nome) reported record high temperatures during the summer of 2004. At Portage Lake, 50 miles south of Anchorage, “people came by the thousands to see Portage Glacier, one of the most accessible of Alaska’s frozen attractions. Except, you can no longer see Portage Glacier from the visitor center. It has disappeared” (Egan, 2005). Gunter Weller, director of the Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, said that average temperatures in the state have increased by 5◦ F in the summer and 10◦ F in the winter in 30 years. Moreover, the Arctic ice field has shrunk by 40

Melting Ice

percent to 50 percent over the last few decades and lost 10 percent of its thickness, studies show. “These are pretty large signals, and they’ve had an effect on the entire physical environment,” Weller said (Murphy, 2001, A-1). Fewer than 20 of Alaska’s several thousand valley glaciers were advancing after the year 2000. Glacial retreat, thinning, stagnation, or a combination of these changes characterizes all 11 mountain ranges and three island areas that support glaciers, according to U.S. Geological Survey scientist Bruce Molnia (Alaskan Glaciers, 2001).

Ss “DRUNKEN FORESTS”

Some Alaskan forests have been drowning and turning gray as thawing ground sinks under them. Trees and roadside utility poles, losing their footings in the thawing earth, lean at crazy angles. The warming has contributed a new phrase to the English language, “the drunken forest” (Johansen, 2001, 20). In Barrow, home of Pepe’s, the world’s northernmost Mexican restaurant, mosquitoes, another southern import, have become a problem for the first time. Barrow has also now experienced its first thunderstorm on record. Temperatures in Barrow began to rise rapidly at about the same time the first snowmobile arrived, in 1971. By the summer of 2002, bulldozers were pushing sand against the invading sea in Barrow.

A “drunken forest,” in Alaska, where trees grow at strange angles because of melting permafrost ( Jeff Dixon)

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By 2002, the Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline was being inspected for damage due to melting permafrost. The pipeline, built during the 1970s, was designed on assumptions that the permafrost would never melt. Mark Lynas, extracting from his book High Tide: News from a Warming World wrote in the London Guardian, Roads all around Fairbanks are affected by thawing permafrost; driving over the gentle undulations is like being at sea in a gentle swell. In some places the damage is more dramatic—crash barriers have bent into weird contortions, and wide cracks fracture the dark tarmac. Permafrost damage now costs a total of $35 million every year, mostly spent on road repairs. Some areas of once-flat land look like bombsites, pockmarked with craters where permafrost ice underneath them has melted and drained away. These uneven landscapes cause “drunken forests” right across Alaska. In one spot near Fairbanks, a long gash had been torn through the tall spruce trees, leaving them toppling over towards each other. (Lynas, 2004, 22)

SPRUCE BEETLE OUTBREAKS ON THE KENAI PENINSULA

On Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula, a forest nearly twice the size of Yellowstone National Park has been dying. “Century-old spruce trees stand silvered and cinnamon-colored as they bleed sap,” from spruce bark beetle infestations spurred by rising temperatures, wrote reporter Tim Egan of The New York Times (June 16, 2002, A-1, June 25, 2002, F-1). During 15 years (1988–2003), 40 million spruce trees on the Kenai Peninsula have died (Whitfield, 2003, 338). The beetle infestations have reached Anchorage, where “[v]isitors flying into the city’s airport cross islands covered with the bristling, white skeletons of dead trees that are easily visible through the plane windows” (Lynas, 2004, 60). Alaskan author Charles Wohlforth described the coming of the bark beetles: On certain spring days in the mid-1990s, clouds of spruce bark beetles took flight among the big spruce trees around Kachemak Bay, 120 miles south of Anchorage. They could be seen from miles away, rolling down the Anchor River valley. People who witnessed the arrival sometimes felt like they were in a horror film, the air thick with beetles landing in their eyes and catching in their hair, and knew when it happened that their trees were destined to turn red and die. (Wohlforth, 2004, 238)

The six-legged spruce beetle, which is about a quarter-inch long, takes to the air in the spring, looking for trees on which to feed. When beetles find a vulnerable group of trees, they will signal to other beetles “a chemical message,” Holsten said. They then burrow under the bark,

Melting Ice

A spruce bark beetle ( Jeff Dixon)

feeding on woody capillary tissue that the tree uses to transport nutrients. Healthy spruce trees produce chemicals (terpenes) that usually repel beetles. The chemicals cannot overwhelm a mass infestation of the type that has been taking place, however (Egan, 2002, F-1). As a spruce dies, green needles turn red and then silver or gray. According to Egan’s account, “Ghostly stands of dead, silver-colored spruce—looking like black and white photographs of a forest—can be seen throughout southcentral Alaska, particularly on the Kenai. Scientists estimate that 38 million spruce trees have died in Alaska in the current outbreak” (Egan, 2002, F-1). More than 4 million acres of white spruce trees on the Kenai Peninsula were dead or dying by 2004 from an infestation of beetles, the worst devastation by insects of any forest in North America. Beetles have been gnawing at spruce trees in Alaska for many thousands of years, but with rapid warming since the 1980s their populations have exploded (Egan, 2002, F-1). SHISHMAREF, ALASKA IS WASHING INTO THE SEA

Six hundred Alaskan Native people in the village of Shishmaref, on the far western shore of Alaska about 60 miles north of Nome, have been watching their village erode into the sea. The permafrost that once reinforced Shishmaref’s waterfront is thawing. “We stand on the island’s edge and see the remains of houses fallen into the sea,” wrote Anton Antonowicz of the London Daily Mirror. “They are the homes

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of poor people. Half-torn rooms with few luxuries. A few photographs, some abandoned cooking pots. Some battered suitcases” (Johansen, 2001, 19). Shishmaref residents voted 161 to 20 during July 2002 to move the entire village inland, a project that the Army Corps of Engineers estimated would cost more than $100 million. Shishmaref is on the Chukchi Sea, which is encroaching steadily as permafrost melts and slumps into the sea. By the summer of 2001, the encroaching sea was threatening rusty fuel tank farm holding 80,000 gallons of gasoline and stove oil. “Several years ago,” observed Kim Murphy of the Los Angeles Times, “The tanks were more than 300 feet from the edge of a seaside bluff. But years of retreating sea ice have sent storm waters pounding, and today just 35 feet of fine sandy bluff stands between the tanks and disaster” (Murphy, 2001, A-1). By 2001, seawater was lapping near the town’s airport runway, its only long-distance connection to the outside. By that time, three houses had been washed into the sea. Several more were threatened. The town’s drinking water supply had also been inundated by the sea. The sea was eight feet from cutting the town’s main road and threatened to wash the town dump out to sea. In High Tide (2004), Mark Lynas described the crumbling of Shishmaref: We stood under the crumbling cliffs. Robert [Iyatunguk] scuffed the base of it with his boot, and icy sand showered down. Up above us an abandoned house hung precariously over the edge, at least a third of its foundation protruding into thin air. The house next door had toppled over and been reduced to matchwood by the waves. (Lynas, 2004, 49)

By the fall of 2004, Shismaref’s beaches retreated still further during vicious storms which peaked from October 18 through 20. The same storms flooded businesses along the waterfront in Nome and damaged power lines, fuel tanks, and roads in at least a half-dozen other coastal villages. After that, residents made plans to move inland. ICE MELT IN GREENLAND

The largest mass of ice in the Northern Hemisphere covers Greenland, which is about 10 percent of the world’s ice. This ice is being measured and monitored as never before, by satellites, aircraft, and by dozens of scientists who are enduring −30◦ F temperatures and deadly snow-cloaked crevasses at the slumping edges of the ice cap (Revkin, 2004). Greenland’s southern tip is no further north than Juneau or Stockholm. The persistence of the ice cap is due to its mass, the fact that

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Greenland summer ice melt in 1992 and 2005 (Courtesy Konrad Steffen, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) University of Colorado)

ice makes its own climate. The ice reflects sunlight and heat and deflects weather systems from the south. The elevation of the ice sheet helps to keep it cold. As it erodes, these advantages diminish (Appenzeller, 2007, 68). Western Greenland is losing ice mass most quickly, as the east gains some mass due to increased precipitation. Greenland’s ice is only a fraction of Antarctica’s, but it is melting more rapidly, in part because summers are warmer, allowing for more rapid runoff. During the last few years, Greenland’s “melt zone,” where summer warmth turns snow on the edge of the ice cap into slush and ponds of water, has expanded inland, reaching elevations more than a mile high in some places, said Konrad Steffen, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado. “The higher elevation appears to be stable, but in a lot of areas around the coast the ice is thinning,” said Waleed Abdalati, a manager in the Earth Sciences Department of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, “There is a net loss of ice, particularly in the south” (Brown, 2002, A-30). While some studies suggest that Greenland’s ice is melting at increasing rates, one study indicates that temperatures at the summit of the ice sheet have declined at the rate of 2.2◦ C per decade since 1987

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(Chylek et al., 2004, 201). In some places, however, coastal thinning of ice increased to as much as three feet a year during the 1990s. Modeling by Jonathan Gregory of the Centre for Global Atmospheric Modeling in Reading, UK, “suggests that as ice is lost, portions of the surface of Greenland’s interior will heat and up at lower elevations where the air is warmer. Less snowfall and more rain would cause the ice to disappear at a faster rate than it is being replaced, leading in turn to further drops in elevation” (Schiermeier, 2004, 114–115). Greenland’s largest glacier, the Jakobshavn, has doubled its speed into the ocean in a few years, to 120 feet per day on average, delivering 11 cubic miles of ice to the sea each year. The glacier’s ice tongue, the point at which the glacier meets the ocean, has also retreated 4 miles since 2000 (Appenzeller, 2007, 61). In Greenland (and elsewhere), summer melt collects in deep-blue lakes sometimes several hundred yards across. The lakes then find fissures in the ice (called moulins), which conduct the water to the glacier’s base, forming a slick surface that speeds the glacier’s movement into the sea. The more the ice melts, the faster the glacier moves. Sometimes surface lakes disappear down moulins nearly instantly (Appenzeller, 2007, 68). POLAR BEARS UNDER PRESSURE

Steady melting of Arctic ice threatens the survival of polar bears, which hunt seals on ice floes. A few years ago, the demise of Arctic sea ice and a majority of polar bears was projected at the end of the century, but ice has melted so quickly that both may vanish within a few decades. The offshore ice-based ecosystem is sustained by upwelling nutrients that

A polar bear ( Jeff Dixon)

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feed plankton, shrimp, and other small organisms, which feed the fish. These, in turn, feed the seals, which feed the bears. The Native people of the area also occupy a position in this cycle of life. When the ice is not present, the entire cycle collapses. Seymour Laxon, senior lecturer in geophysics at UCLA’s Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling, said that serious concern exists over the long-term survival hopes for polar bears as a species. “To put it bluntly,” he said, “No ice means no bears” (Elliott, 2003; Laxon et al., 2003, 947). Andrew Derocher, a professor of biology at the University of Alberta, supported Laxon’s beliefs. “If the progress of climate change continues without any intervention, then the prognosis for polar bears would ultimately be extinction,” he said (Expert Fears, 2003, C-8). As part of the U.S. federal government’s decision-making process regarding whether to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Geological Survey in 2007 issued a series of reports anticipating that their population would plunge twothirds by 2050 as Arctic sea ice retreats. After the Arctic ice cap shrank by almost a quarter in a year by the end of summer such projections were being moved forward. During 2002, a World Wildlife Fund study, “Polar Bears at Risk,” said that the combination of toxic chemicals and global warming could cause extinction of roughly 22,000 surviving polar bears in the wild within 50 years. Lynn Rosentrater, coauthor of the report and a climate scientist in the WWF’s Arctic program, said, “Since the sea ice is melting earlier in the spring, polar bears move to land earlier without having developed as much fat reserves to survive the ice free season. They are skinny bears by the end of summer, which in the worst case can affect their ability to reproduce” (Thin Polar Bears, 2002). Without ice, polar bears can become hungry, miserable creatures, especially in unaccustomed warmth. During the Baffin Island town of Iqaluit’s record warm summer of July 2001, two tourists were hospitalized after they were mauled by a polar bear in a park south of town. On July 20, a similar confrontation occurred in northern Labrador as a polar bear tried to claw its way into a tent occupied by a group of Dutch tourists. The tourists escaped injury but the bear was shot to death. “The bears are looking for a cooler place,” said Ben Kovic, Nunavut’s chief wildlife manager (Johansen, 2001, 18). Until recently, polar bears had their own food sources and usually went about their business without trying to steal food from humans. Beset by late freezes and early thaws, hungry polar bears are coming into contact with people more frequently. In Churchill, Manitoba, polar bears waking

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from their winter’s slumber have found Hudson’s Bay ice melted earlier than usual. Instead of making their way onto the ice in search of seals, the bears walk along the coast until they get to Churchill, where they block motor traffic and pillage the town dump for food scraps. Churchill now has a holding tank for wayward polar bears that is larger than its jail for people.

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Artificial Hockey Ice and Air-Conditioning in Nunavut By the winter of 2002–2003, a warming trend was forcing hockey players in Canada’s far north to seek rinks with artificial ice. Canada’s Financial Post reported that “[o]fficials in the Arctic say global warming has cut hockey season in half in the past two decades and may hinder the future of development of northern hockey stars such as Jordin Tootoo” (Ice is Scarce, 2003). According to the Financial Post report, hockey rinks in northern communities were raising funds directed toward installation of cooling plants to create artificial ice because of the reduced length of time during which natural ice was available. In Rankin Inlet, on Hudson Bay in Nunavut, a community of 2,400 residents installed artificial ice during the summer of 2003 (Ice is Scarce, 2003). Hockey season on natural ice, which ran from September until May in the 1970s, often now begins around Christmas and ends in March, according to Jim MacDonald, president of Rankin Inlet Minor Hockey. “It’s giving us about three months of hockey. Once we finally get going, it’s time to stop. At the beginning of our season, we’re playing teams that have already been on the ice for two or three months,” MacDonald said (Ice is Scarce, 2003.) According to Tom Thompson, president of Hockey Nunavut. There are about two-dozen natural ice rinks in tiny communities throughout the territory but only two with artificial ice, Thompson said. Both are in the capital, Iqaluit (Ice is Scarce, 2003). “In my lifetime I will not be surprised if we see a year where Hudson Bay doesn’t freeze over completely,” said Jay Anderson of Environment Canada. It’s very dramatic. Yesterday [January 6, 2003], an alert was broadcast over the Rankin Inlet radio station warning that ice on rivers around the town is unsafe. The temperature hovered around minus 12 [degrees] C. It’s usually minus 37 there at this time of year” (Ice is Scarce, 2003). Meanwhile, during 2006, officials in Nunavut authorized the installation of air conditioners in official buildings for the first time, because summertime temperatures in some southern Arctic villages have climbed into the 80-degree (F.) range in recent years.

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Northwest Passage Nearly Open

Extent of Arctic ice cap, September 2007; the ice cap lost 24 percent of its extent in one year, opening the Northwest Passage for the first time (NASA Earth Observatory) During late August 2007, for the first time, the Northwest Passage from Baffin Bay to Northern Alaska opened during a season of record ice melt for the Arctic ice cap. European mariners had been seeking and failing to find such a route since 1497, when English King Henry VII sent Italian explorer John Cabot to look for a route from Europe to the Orient that would avoid the southern tip of Africa. Many explorers failed at the task, including Sir Francis Drake and Captain James Cook. NASA’s Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer aboard the Aqua satellite observed open water along nearly the entire route on August 22, 2007. “Although nearly open, the Northwest Passage was not necessarily easy to navigate in August 2007,” NASA noted. “Located 800 kilometers (500 miles) north of the Arctic Circle and less than 1,930 kilometers (1,200 miles) from the North Pole, this sea route remains a significant challenge, best met with a strong icebreaker ship backed by a good insurance policy” (Northwest Passage, 2007).

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CLIMATE CONTRADICTIONS IN ANTARCTICA

In Antarctica, ice sheets have been melting around the edges of the continent more quickly than anticipated, as increasing temperatures speed glaciers’ movement into the surrounding oceans. The Antarctic Peninsula is among the most rapidly warming areas on Earth, where large ice shelves have been crumbling into the surrounding seas for several years. Temperatures on the West Antarctic Peninsula have risen 8.8◦ F in winter since 1950, and 4.5◦ F in summer (Glick, 2004, 33). At the same time, sections of Antarctica’s interior have experienced a pronounced cooling trend while most other areas of Earth have warmed. Are Antarctic ice sheets thickening or thinning? Is sea ice expanding or contracting? Both questions are open to debate. These debates are of great interest for the rest of the world because significant melting of land-based Antarctic ice could raise sea levels and inundate coastal residences of many hundreds of millions of people. Whatever the outcome of these debates, many observations indicate a climate change-provoked breakdown in the Antarctic food chain, which begins with krill and ends with penguins and whales. These problems may be intensified by humancaused declines in stratospheric ozone levels as well. During 2007, NASA researchers using 20 years of data from spacebased sensors, from 1987 through 2006, found that the Antarctic ice cap, which contains 90 percent of Earth’s freshwater, has been melting over time farther inland from the coast. Ice and snow are also melting at higher altitudes, and melting is increasing on Antarctica’s largest (eastern) ice shelf. Snow and ice in Antarctica has been melting as far inland as 500 miles away from the coast and as high as 1.2 miles above sea level in the Transantarctic Mountains. The same study also found that melting has been increasing on the Ross Ice Shelf, both in geographic area and duration. The study will be published on September 22, 2007, in Geophysical Research Letters (Tedesco et al., 2007). As in Greenland, satellite sensors found that melting snow and ice on the surface was forming ponds, with meltwater filling small cracks, which cause larger fractures in the ice shelf. “Persistent melting on the Ross Ice Shelf is something we should not lose sight of because of the ice shelf’s role as a ‘brake system’ for glaciers,” said the study’s lead author, Marco Tedesco, a research scientist at the Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, which is cooperatively managed by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and the University of Maryland. “Ice shelves are thick ice masses covering coastal land with extended

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areas that float on the sea, keeping warmer marine air at a distance from glaciers and preventing a greater acceleration of melting. The Ross Ice Shelf acts like a freezer door, separating ice on the inside from warmer air on the outside. So the smaller that door becomes, the less effective it will be at protecting the ice inside from melting and escaping” (NASA Researchers, 2007). Even without human burning of fossil fuels, sea levels sometimes have changed very rapidly during glacial cycles in the past. P. U. Clark and colleagues investigated sea level changes of roughly 14,200 years ago that resulted in sea level surges of about 40 millimeters a year over 500 years, much more rapid than the 1 to 2 millimeter per year sea level rise of the twentieth century (Clark et al., 2002, 2438; Sabadini, 2002, 2376). These “meltwater pulses” probably originated in Antarctica, mostly from ice sheet disintegration. As this work was being prepared for the press, several reports indicated that Antarctic glaciers were speeding their movement toward the sea, especially around the fringes of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The world may warm as a whole while some areas become colder because of local effects. The eastern half of Antarctica, for example, has been gaining ice mass, more than 45 billion tons a year, according to a new scientific study. Data from satellites bouncing radar signals off the ground show that the surface of eastern Antarctica appears to be slowly growing higher, by about 1.8 centimeters a year, as snow and ice pile up (Chang, 2005, A-22). As temperatures rise so does the amount of moisture in the air, causing snowfall increases in cold areas such as Antarctica. “It’s been long predicted by climate models,” said Curt H. Davis, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Missouri. ICE SHELVES COLLAPSE

Several ice shelves on or near the Antarctic Peninsula have collapsed into the ocean in recent years, becoming spectacular poster images for global warming. Kevin Krajick, writing in Science, remarked that glaciologists in Antarctica “are keeping an eye on an alarming trend: sudden, explosive calving [of icebergs] in parts of Antarctica. The fear is that if this continues, it may hasten the death of glaciers at an unanticipated rate” (Krajick, 2001, 2245). Ted Scambos, a glacier expert at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, a joint operation of the Commerce Department and the University of Colorado, was quoted as saying that the rapid fracturing was too rapid to be explained by temperature rises alone. He surmised that “summer temperatures are now high enough

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to form melt pools on the glacial surfaces, which percolate rapidly into small weaknesses to form crevasses. Once a complex of crevasses hits sea level, sea water rushes in, re-freezes, and the mass blows apart” (Krajick, 2001, 2245). Scambos then said that such fracturing might spread to the Ross Ice Sheet (which is much closer to the South Pole than the Antarctic Peninsula) within about 50 years. The ice shelves of Antarctica lost 3,000 square miles of surface area during 1998 alone. In March 2000, one of the largest icebergs ever observed broke off the Ross Ice Shelf near Roosevelt Island. Designated B-15, its initial 4,250 square mile (11,007 square kilometer) area was almost as large as the state of Connecticut. In mid-May 2002, another massive iceberg broke off the Ross Ice Shelf, according to the National Ice Center in Suitland, Maryland. The new iceberg, named C-19 to indicate its location in the Western Ross Sea, was the second to break from the Ross Ice Shelf in two weeks. On May 5, researchers spotted a new floating ice mass named C-18, measuring about 41 nautical miles long and four nautical miles wide. An iceberg two hundred kilometers (120 miles) long, 32 kilometers (20 miles) wide and about 200 meters (660 feet) thick, calved from the Ross Ice Shelf during late October 2002. The iceberg, called C-19, is one of the biggest observed in recent years, said David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey (Monster Iceberg, 2002). The Larsen ice shelves (known by scientists north–south as “A,” “B,” and “C”) began to disintegrate in 1995, when the “A” shelf fell apart; “B” followed in 1998, losing 1,000 square miles over four years. A 1,250square-mile section of the Larsen B Ice Shelf disintegrated in just 35 days, setting thousands of icebergs adrift in the Weddell Sea. “We knew what was left of the Larsen B ice shelf would collapse eventually, but this is staggering,” said David Vaughan, a British glaciologist. “It’s just broken apart. It fell over like a wall and has broken as if into hundreds of thousands of bricks” (Vidal, 2002, 3). “This is the largest single event in a series of retreats by ice shelves in the peninsula over the last 30 years. Satellite images indicated that during 2002 another massive iceberg, larger in area than the state of Delaware, broke away from the Thwaites ice tongue, a sheet of glacial ice that extends into the Amundsen Sea nearly a thousand miles from the Larsen Ice Sheet. The collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf “is unprecedented during the Holocene;” that is, during the last 10,000 years, according to a scientific team that wrote in Nature (Domack et al., 2005, 681). Scambos said that the surprising speed of the ice sheets’ collapse, which he blamed on “strong climate warming in the region,” will force

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scientists to reassess the stability of Antarctica’s other ice shelves (Toner, 2002, A-1). Larsen “C” then shattered and collapsed during mid-March 2002. The 640-foot-thick ice shelf had been receding for at least a decade, but scientists said it collapsed with “staggering” speed. The “B” and “C” shelves were believed to have been intact since the last ice age (Toner, 2002, A-1). Collapse of the Larsen ice shelves was attributed to a strong climate warming in the region, according to the U.S. government’s Ice Center (Vidal, 2002, 3). “This area and that of the western Arctic off Alaska are the two most rapidly warming places on the globe. The trends of melting ice shelves is now clear,” said Steve Sawyer, a climate change scientist (Vidal, 2002, 3). THE SPEED OF ICE MELT: A SLOW-MOTION DISASTER?

Scientists are coming to understand that ice can melt with incredible rapidity. “We thought the Southern Hemisphere climate is inherently more stable,” said Scambos, “All of the time scales seem to be shortened now. These things can happen fairly quickly. A decade or two decades of warming is all you need to really change the mass balance. Things are on more of a hair trigger than we [had] thought” (Struck, 2007, A-10). Evidence from Antarctica suggests that melting ice may flow into the sea much more easily than earlier believed, perhaps leading to a more rapid rise in worldwide sea levels than many scientists had anticipated. A study published on March 7, 2003, in the journal Science called the prospect “a slow-motion disaster,” the cost of which—in lost shorelines, salt inundation of water supplies, and damaged ecosystems—“would be borne by many future generations” (de Angelis and Skvarca, 2003, 1560; Revkin, 2003, A-8). This analysis focused on the disintegration of ice shelves at the edges of the Antarctic Peninsula following decades of warming temperatures. The loss of the coastal shelves caused a drastic speedup in the seaward flow of inland glaciers. The peninsula, which stretches north toward South America, has warmed an average of 4.5◦ F. over the last 60 years, so much so that ponds of melted water now form during summer months atop the flat ice shelves (Revkin, 2003, A-8). Two Argentine researchers described aerial surveys they conducted during 2001 and 2002 which indicated that the collapse of the Larsen A ice shelf during 1995 led to a sudden surge in the seaward flow of five of the six glaciers behind it on the land—as if a dam had been breached. Geological evidence indicated no signs of similar ice breakups along the peninsula in many thousands of years, the researchers and other experts said. The recent disintegration of ice shelves along both coasts of the peninsula occurred after thousands of years of relative stability,

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according to Pedro Skvarca, an author of the study and the director of glaciology at the Antarctic Institute of Argentina (Revkin, 2003, A-8). “We are witnessing a very significant warning sign of climate warming,” Skvarca said (Revkin, 2003, A-8). “This discovery calls for a reconsideration of former hypotheses about the stabilizing role of ice shelves. . . . It should be emphasized that the grounded ice on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula is rapidly retreating and therefore substantially contributing to the global rise in sea level. The risk increases when the possible surging response of the Kektoria-Green-Evans and Crane glaciers is considered; these glaciers formerly nourished the section of the Larsen B Ice Shelf that disintegrated in early 2002” (de Angelis and Skvarca, 2003, 1560–1562). ANTARCTIC WARMING AND THE OCEAN FOOD WEB

Numbers of krill, a small shrimplike animal at the base of the Antarctic ocean food chain, have fallen by 80 percent since the 1970s, creating food shortages that are endangering larger animals and birds, such as whales, seals, penguins, and albatrosses, especially in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula. Angus Atkinson of the British Antarctic Survey, who led the research, said, “This is the first time that we have understood the full scale of this decline. Krill feed on the algae found under the surface of the sea-ice, which acts as a kind of nursery” (Atkinson et al., 2004, 100–103; Henderson, 2004). The collapse of ice shelves along some of Antarctica’s shores changes the ecology of the nearby ocean, with important effects for wildlife. According to a report by the Environment News Service, the new

Krill, at the base of the Antarctic food chain ( Jeff Dixon)

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Adelie Penguins at a rookery ( Jeff Dixon)

icebergs have changed the Antarctic ecosystem blocking sunlight needed for growth of the microscopic plants called phytoplankton that form the underpinning of the entire food web. They are a primary food source for miniscule shrimp-like krill, which in turn are consumed by fish, seals, whales and penguins. Ice shelf B-15 broke into smaller pieces that prevented the usual movement of sea ice out of the region, said Kevin Arrigo, assistant professor of geophysics at Stanford University. Phytoplankton requires open water and sunlight to reproduce, so higher-than-usual amounts of pack ice cause declines in plankton productivity (Breakaway Bergs, 2002). Populations of Adelie penguins on the Antarctic Peninsula are falling as their surroundings warm. About 1985, the Biscoe region of the Antarctic Peninsula was home to about 2,800 breeding pairs of Adelie Penguins. By 2000, however, the number had declined to about 1,000. On nearby islands, the number of breeding pairs has dropped from 32,000 to 11,000 in 30 years. “The Adelies are the canaries in the coal mine of climate change in the Antarctic,” said ecologist Bill Fraser (Montaigne, 2004, 36, 39, 47). If warming continues, penguins may abandon much of their 900-mile-long home promontory altogether. The archetypal “tuxedoed” species prefer a cold climate even more so than other penguins (Lean, 2002, 9).

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Warming has also caused problems for penguins in the Ross Sea. Large icebergs have been blocking the way between their breeding colonies and feeding areas. As a result, the penguins are being forced to walk an extra 30 miles (at a one-mile-per-hour waddle) to get food. Thousands of penguins have died during these treks. Thousands of emperor penguin chicks drowned near Britain’s Halley base after ice broke up earlier than usual, before they had learned to swim (Lean, 2002, 9). Penguins cannot fly and so have trouble changing habitat as conditions evolve. Penguins and whales are only two of the several Antarctic animals that will be threatened in coming years due to rapid habitat change caused at least partially by warming temperatures. Global warming could wipe out thousands of Antarctic animal species in the next 100 years, the British Antarctic Survey said during 2002. An anticipated temperature rise of 2◦ C, a fraction of what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts by the end of the twenty-first century, would be enough to threaten large numbers of fragile invertebrates with extinction, said Professor Lloyd Peck from the British Antarctic Survey. These include exotic creatures found nowhere else on Earth, “such as sea spiders the size of dinner plates, isopods—relatives of the woodlouse, and fluorescent sea gooseberries as big as rugby balls” (Von Radowitz, 2002). Peck said, “We are talking about thousands of species, not four or five. It’s not a mite on the end of the nose of an elk somewhere” (Von Radowitz, 2002). MOUNTAIN GLACIERS IN RETREAT

Mountain glaciers are in rapid retreat around the Earth, with very few exceptions. Climbers have been rescued from the Matterhorn in the Swiss Alps as thawing mountainsides crumble under them. During the summer of 2003, Mont Blanc, Europe’s tallest, was closed to hikers and climbers because its deteriorating snow and ice was too unstable to allow safe passage. The mountain was crumbling as ice that once held it together melted during a record warm summer in Europe. In the Swiss Alps, scientists have estimated that by 2025 glaciers will have lost 90 percent of the volume they contained a century earlier. Roger Payne, a director of the Swiss-based International Mountaineering and Climbing Federation, said global warming was emerging as one of the biggest threats to mountain areas. “The evidence of climate change was all around us, from huge scars gouged in the landscapes by sudden glacial floods to the lakes swollen by melting glaciers” (Williams, 2002, 2).

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Eighty-five percent of the glaciers in Spain’s Pyrenees melted during the twentieth century, according to Greenpeace, which reported, “The surface of the glaciers of the Pyrenees on the Spanish side went from 1,779 hectares (4,394 acres) in 1894 to 290 acres in 2000. . . . That infers a loss of 85 percent of the surface of the glaciers in the last century, with the process accelerating in the last 20 years” (More Than, 2004). Glaciers in that area are expected to vanish by the year 2070. Melting glaciers are revealing a large number of previously buried historical artifacts. For example, a 450-year-old bison skull was found in a melting snow bank in the Colorado Rockies. Human cadavers, airplanes, dead birds, caribou carcasses, mining equipment, and prehistoric weapons have been uncovered (Erickson, 2002, 6-A). By the end of the twenty-first century, Glacier National Park in Montana may lose the last of its permanent glaciers; its name will be a reminder of what humankind has done to the Earth’s climate. The original 150 glaciers within Glacier National Park had been reduced to 37 by 2002, and most of these were small remnants of the once-mighty ice masses. After naturalist George Bird Grinnell campaigned for creation of Glacier National Park more than a century ago, a 500-acre glacier there was named for him. Today, it has lost two-thirds of its mass. Generally, the only glaciers gaining mass are in wet areas of the world near the oceans, such as parts of Norway and Sweden, where lowland melting has been offset by increased snowfall at higher elevations, another result of warming temperatures. Temperatures are rising on these highland glaciers too, and warmer air holds more moisture. These areas have not yet risen above freezing most of the year. Alaska’s Hubbard Glacier “is advancing so swiftly that it threatens to seal off the entrance to Russell Fiord near Yukatat and turn the fiord into an ice-locked lake. Like a handful of other Alaska glaciers, the Hubbard is fed by a highaltitude snowfield that has not yet been affected by warmer temperatures” (Toner, 2002, 4-A). “The Hubbard is definitely an exception,” said the Geological Survey’s Bruce Molnia, who has been tracking 1,500 Alaska glaciers. “Every mountain group and island we have investigated is seeing significant glacier retreat, thinning or stagnation, especially at lower elevations. Ninety-nine percent of the named glaciers in Alaska are retreating” (Toner, 2002, 4-A). Scientists reported during October 2003 that the Patagonian Ice Fields of Chile and Argentina have been thinning so quickly that this 6,500-square-mile region of South America is experiencing a pace of glacial retreat that is among the most rapid on Earth. During the period 1995–2000, rate of volume loss for 63 glaciers in the area doubled,

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compared to the 1968–2000 average (Rignot et al., 2003, 434). Early in 2004, Greenpeace International released results of an aerial survey confirming the rapid recession of the Patagonia glaciers, which was estimated at 42 cubic kilometers a year, an amount that could fill a large sports stadium 10,000 times. “These losses are not just regrettable but actually threaten the health and well-being of us all. Mountains are the water towers of the world, the sources of many rivers. We must act to conserve them for the benefit of mountain people, for the benefit of humankind,” said Klaus Toepfer, head of the United Nations environment program (Vidal, 2002, 7). Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia, where major cities rely on glaciers as their main source of water during dry seasons, would be worst affected.

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Glacial Retreat in the Himalayas Thousands of Himalayan glaciers feed several major rivers, sustaining onesixth of the Earth’s population, a billion people downstream mainly in China and India. Their retreat threatens the region’s drinking water supply and agricultural production and increases its vulnerability to disease and floods. The Indian Space Research Organization used satellite imaging to measure changes in 466 glaciers, finding more than a 20 percent reduction in their size between 1962 and 2001. Another study found that the Parbati glacier, among the largest, was retreating by 170 feet a year during the 1990s. Another glacier, Dokriani, lost an average of 55 feet a year. Temperatures in the northwestern Himalayas have risen by 2.2◦ C in the last two decades (Sengupta, 2007). “In the course of the century,” warned a report from the Indian Space Research Organization, “water supply stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives” (Sengupta, 2007).

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The Ex-snows of Mount Kilimanjaro The snow and ice crown of Mount Kilimanjaro in equatorial Africa, made famous by Ernest Hemmingway a century ago, may vanish before the mid twenty-first century. Kilimanjaro will no longer live up to its name, which in Swahili means “mountain that glitters.” Mount Kenya’s ice fields have lost three-quarters of their entire extent during the twentieth century. By 2002 Mount Kilimanjaro had lost 82 percent of its ice cap’s volume since

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Aerial views of Mount Kilimanjaro ice cap: (a) 1993 and (b) 2000 (NASA Earth Observatory)

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it was first carefully measured in 1912, according to glaciologist Lonnie Thompson, a third of it since 1990. Kilimanjaro’s ice field shrank from 12 square kilometers in 1912 to only 2.6 square kilometers in 2000, reducing the height of the mountain by several meters. The ice covering the 19,330-foot peak “will be gone by about 2020,” said Thompson (Arthur, 2002, 7). The reduction of glacial mass has already cut water volume in some Tanzanian rivers that supply villages near the mountain’s base. Global warming may not be the only culprit in the demise of Kilimanjaro’s icecap; natural climate changes (including an extended drought) also have been blamed, along with deforestation on the mountain’s slopes that sucks moisture out of rising winds that once coated the upper elevations of the mountain with snow. Euan Nisbet of Zimbabwe’s Royal Holloway College has suggested, in all seriousness, that plastic tarps be draped across thee remaining ice fields to extend their life (Morton, 2003). Some researchers deny that the diminishing snows of Kilimanjaro are related to warming temperatures. Philip Mote of the University of Washington, for example, said that most of the ice loss on Kilimanjaro occurred before the 1950s, when warming temperatures were not the dominant factor. Reduced snowfall is an important factor, according to Mote, as well as sublimation, which converts ice to water vapor at below-freezing temperatures without turning it to water in between (Mote and Kaser, 2007). The demise of Kilimanjaro’s ice cap could imperil Tanzania’s economy, which relies on tourism driven by the attraction of the mountain. In the Hemingway short story “The Snows of Kilimanjaro,” a disillusioned writer, Harry Street, reflects on his life while lying injured in an African campsite. The short story was made into a film starring Gregory Peck in 1952. “Kilimanjaro is the number-one foreign currency earner for the government of Tanzania,” said Thompson. “It has its own international airport and some 20,000 tourists every year” (Arthur, 2002, 7).

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Rising temperatures have been melting ancient glaciers on the high Alps, causing devastating summer rockslides that have endangered the lives of many climbers, including 70 on July 14, 2003, one of the largest mass rescues in the area’s history. Most were plucked from the Matterhorn, which was racked by two major landslides that day. According to an observer, “Those climbing its slopes could have been forgiven for thinking the crown jewel of the Alps had started falling apart under their feet” (McKie, 2003, 18).

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According to Robin McKie, writing in London’s Observer, “The great mountain range’s icy crust of permafrost, which holds its stone pillars and rock faces together, and into which its cable car stations and pylons are rooted, is disappearing” (McKie, 2003, 18). Several recent Alpine disasters, including the avalanches that killed more than 50 people at the Austrian resort of Galtur during 1999, have been blamed on melting permafrost. During August 2003, the freezing line in the Alps rose to 13,860 feet (4,200 meters), almost 4,000 feet above its usual summer maximum of 3,000 meters (9,900 feet) (Capella, 2003). Melting of permafrost in the Alps and other European mountain ranges does much more than spoil mountain climbers’ treks. Devastating landslides sometimes threaten alpine villages and ski resorts. Fear has been expressed that some villages may have to be evacuated. Rivers may also be blocked by debris, causing flash floods when these unstable dams subsequently collapse. According to a report in the London Guardian, Charles Harris of the earth sciences department at Cardiff University, who coordinates research for the European Union, said that the main areas at risk are the Alps in Switzerland, Austria, France, Germany, and Italy, where the mountains are densely populated and the slopes are very steep. The people of Macugnaga, Italy, an Alpine resort village long ago learned to cope with the floods that sometimes accompany the melting snow in the spring, “but nothing,” according to one account, “prepared them for the catastrophic flood threat they now face—a glacier rapidly melting from unusually warm temperatures” (Konviser, 2002, C-1). Residents of the village fear that a large lake fed by melting glaciers could break through an ice wall. If the wall breaks, a devastating wall of water carrying chunks of glacier and mountain debris could surge through a valley below. Known technically as a “glacier lake outburst flood,” or GLOF, “it’s an event previously seen only in the Himalayas where the slopes of the mountains are steeper. Scientists say the threat is both real, and a warning of things to come if the global-warming trend continues” (Konviser, 2002, C-1). “It’s a dangerous situation because the border of the lake is ice, which isn’t stable,” said Claudia Smiraglia, a professor of physical geography at Milan University. “The glacier is always in motion” (Konviser, 2002, C-1). Bruce I. Konviser, reporting for The Boston Globe, described the potential scope of the threat: If the water escapes, the 650 residents of Macugnaga and as many as 7,000 vacationers, depending on the time of year,would have approximately

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Global Warming 101 40 minutes to gather their belongings and get to higher ground before the wave of water and mountain wipes out much, if not all, of the manmade structures, according to Luka Spoletini, a spokesman for the Italian government’s Department of Civil Protection” (Konviser, 2002, C-1)

ANDES GLACIERS’ RETREAT

Hundreds of Andean glaciers are retreating, and scientists say that their erosion is a direct result of rising temperatures. During three decades (1970–2000), Peru’s glaciers lost almost a quarter of their 1,225square-mile surface (Wilson, 2001, A-1). The 18,700-foot-high Quelccaya ice cap in the Andes of southeastern Peru has been steadily shrinking at an accelerating rate and lost 10 to 12 feet a year between 1978 and 1990, up to 90 feet a year between 1990 and 1995, and 150 feet a year between 1995 and 1998. The glacier retreated between 100 and 500 feet, depending on location, between 1999 and 2004. The Peruvian National Commission on Climate Change forecast in 2005 that Peru would lose all its glaciers below 18,000 feet in ten years. Within 40 years, the commission said that all of Peru’s glaciers would be gone (Regaldo, 2005, A-1). The Quelccaya ice cap shrank from 22 to 17 square miles between 1974 and 1998. The Quelccaya ice cap in the Peruvian Andes is retreating more than 500 feet a year. Water from hundreds of glaciers in a stretch of the Andes known as the Cordillera Blanca (“White Range”) drives the rural economy of Peru. The water runoff moistens wheat and potatoes along the mountain slopes. It also provides the houses and huts with electricity generated by a hydroelectric plant on the river (Wilson, 2001, A-1). Lima, A city of eight million people in the Atacama, one of the driest deserts on Earth, receives nearly all of its water during a six-month dry season from glacial ice melt. Within a few decades, at present melting rates, Lima’s people will encounter severe water shortages. The same water is used to generate much of Lima’s electricity. As its few wells dry up and glaciers shrink, Lima has been adding 200,000 residents a year. Bolivia’s capital, La Paz, and Ecuador’s capital, Quito, face similar problems (Lynas, 2004, 236–237). Within a few years, however, the lifegiving waters may diminish to a trickle for the last time if freezing levels continue to rise. The melting of glacial ice in Peru may also make some areas more vulnerable to the frequent earthquakes that afflict the area. “Glaciers usually melt into the rock, filling in fissures with water that expands and freezes when the temperatures drop. What scientists fear is that, with

Melting Ice

Jacamba Glacier, Peruvian Andes, 1980 and 2000 (Courtesy of Mark Lynas/Photos by Tim Helwig-Larsen)

increased melting, more water and larger ice masses are pulling apart the rock and making the ice cap above more susceptible to the frequent seismic tremors that rock the area” (Wilson, 2001, A-1). Many Peruvians who face drought in the long term have also been benefiting from a sense of false plenty in the short term by increasing glacial runoff as glaciers melt. According to Scott Wilson, writing in The Washington Post, the short-term glacial runoff “has made possible plans to electrify remote mountain villages, turn deserts into orchards and deliver potable water to poor communities. In some mud-brick villages scattered across the valley, new schools will open and factories will crank up as the glacier-fed river increases electricity production” (Wilson, 2001, A-1). “In the long run . . . these long-frozen sources of water will run dry,” said Cesar Portocarrero, a Peruvian engineer who worked for Electroperu, the government-owned power company, and who has monitored Peru’s water supply for 25 years (Revkin, 2002, A-10). In the meantime, evidence of changing climate has appeared in Portocarrero’s hometown, Huaraz, a small city at 10,000 feet in the Andes. “I was doing

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work in my house the other day [in 2002] and saw mosquitoes,” Portocarrero said. “Mosquitoes at more than 3,000 meters. I never saw that before. It means really we have here the evidence and consequences of global warming” (Revkin, 2002, A-10).

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Might Human-initiated Global Warming End the Ice Age Cycle? Is it possible that ongoing global warming could delay the onset of the next ice age by thousands of years? Belgian researchers raised this issue in the August 23, 2002 issue of Science. “We’ve shown that the input of greenhouse gas could have an impact on the climate 50,000 years in the future,” said Marie-France Loutre of the Universite Catholique de Louvain in Belgium, who researched the question with colleague Andre Barger (Berger and Loutre, 2002, 1287). Princeton climatologist Jorge Sarmiento said that his own work supports Loutre’s assertion that increasing levels of carbon dioxide could linger for thousands of years, long enough to influence the climate of the far future. “The warming will certainly launch us into a new interval in terms of climate, far outside what we’ve seen before,” said Duke University climatologist Tom Crowley. He said it was a big enough influence to cause the cycle of ice ages to “skip a beat” (Flam, 2002). Loutre and Berger estimated that human activity would double the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the next century, raising temperatures as much as 10◦ F. “It could get much worse,” said Crowley. There’s a huge reservoir of coal, and if people keep burning it, they could more than quadruple the present carbon dioxide concentrations, he said. “I find it hard to believe we will restrain ourselves,” he said. “It’s really rather startling the changes that people will probably see” (Flam, 2002). “The silliest thing people could say is: We’ve got an ice age coming, so why are we worrying about global warming?” Sarmiento said. Whether Loutre and Berger’s theory is right or not, “[w]e’re going to get a lot of global warming before the ice age kicks in” (Flam, 2002).

Ss REFERENCES “Alaskan Glaciers Retreating.” Environment News Service, December 11, 2001, http://ens-news.com/ens/dec2001/2001L-12-11-09.html. Appenzeller, Tim. “The Big Thaw.” National Geographic, June 2007, 56–71. “Arctic Ocean Ice Thinner by Half in Six Years.” Environment News Service, September 14, 2007, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/sep2007/2007-09-14-03.asp. “Arctic Sea Ice Melt May Set Off Climate Change Cascade.” Environment News Service, March 19, 2007, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/mar2007/200703-19-06.asp.

Melting Ice Arthur, Charles. “Snows of Kilimanjaro Will Disappear by 2020, Threatening Worldwide Drought.” London Independent, October 18, 2002. Atkinson, Angus, Volker Siegel, Evgeny Pakhomov, and Peter Rothery. “Long-term Decline in Krill Stock and Increase in Salps within the Southern Ocean.” Nature 432 (November 4, 2004): 100–103. Berger, Andre and Marie-France Loutre. “Climate: An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?” Science 297 (August 23, 2002): 1287–1288. “Breakaway Bergs Disrupt Antarctic Ecosystem.” Environmental News Service, May 9, 2002, http://ens-news.com/ens/may2002/2002L-05-09-01.html. Brown, DeNeen L. “Greenland’s Glaciers Crumble; Global Warming Melts Polar Ice Cap into Deadly Icebergs.” The Washington Post, October 13, 2002, A-30. Capella, Peter. “Europe’s Alps Crumbling; Glaciers Melting in Heatwave.” Agence France Presse, August 7, 2003 (in LEXIS). Chang, Kenneth. “Warming Is Blamed for Antarctica’s Weight Gain.” The New York Times, May 20, 2005, A-22. Chylek, Petr, Jason E. Box, and Glen Lesins. “Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet.” Climatic Change 63 (2004): 201–221. Clark, P. U., J. X. Mitrovica, G. A. Milne, and M. E. Tamisiea. “Sea-level Fingerprinting as a Direct Test for the Source of Global Meltwater Pulse.” Science 295 (March 29, 2002): 2438–2441. de Angelis, Hern´an, and Pedro Skvarca. “Glacier Surge After Ice Shelf Collapse.” Science 299 (March 7, 2003): 1560–1562. Domack, Eugene, Diana Duran, Amy Leventer, Scott Ishman, Sarah Doane, Scott McCallum, David Amblas, Jim Ring, Robert Gilbert, and Michael Prentice. “Stability of the Larsen B Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene Epoch.” Nature 436 (August 4, 2005): 681–685. Egan, Timothy. “Alaska, No Longer So Frigid, Starts to Crack, Burn, and Sag.” The New York Times, June 16, 2002, A-1. ———. “On Hot Trail of Tiny Killer in Alaska.” The New York Times, June 25, 2002, F-1. ———. “The Race to Alaska Before It Melts.” The New York Times, Travel Section, June 26, 2005. Elliott, Valerie. “Polar Bears Surviving on Thin Ice.” London Times, October 30, 2003 (in LEXIS). Erickson, Jim. “Glaciers Doff Their Ice Caps, and as Frozen Fields Melt, Anthropological Riches are Revealed.” Rocky Mountain News, August 22, 2002, 6-A. “Expert Fears Warming will Doom Bears.” Canadian Press in Victoria Times-Colonist, January 5, 2003, C-8. Flam, Faye. “It’s Hot Now, but Scientists Predict There’s an Ice Age Coming.” Philadelphia Inquirer, August 23, 2002 (in LEXIS). Glick, Daniel. “The Heat Is On: Geosigns.” National Geographic, September 2004, 12–33. Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharechai, David A. Lea, and Mark Siddal. “Climate Change and Trace Gases.” Proceedings of the Royal Society. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. January, 2007. (A 365): 1925–1954. http://www.giss.nasa.gov/∼ jhansen/docs/RoyalSoc 16Jan2007.pdf.

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Global Warming 101 Harvey, Fiona. “Arctic May Have No Ice in Summer by 2070, Warns Climate Change Report.” Financial Times (London), November 2, 2004, 1. Henderson, Mark. “Southern Krill Decline Threatens Whales, Seals.” London Times in Calgary Herald, November 4, 2004, A-11. Human, Katy. “Disappearing Arctic Ice Chills Scientists; A University of Colorado Expert on Ice Worries that the Massive Melting Will Trigger Dramatic Changes in the World’s Weather.” The Denver Post, October 5, 2004, B-2. “Ice is a Scarce Commodity on Arctic Rinks: Global Warming Blamed for Shortened Hockey Season.” Financial Post (Canada), January 7, 2003, A-3. Johansen, Bruce E. “Arctic Heat Wave.” The Progressive, October 2001, 18–20. Konviser, Bruce I. “Glacier Lake Puts Global Warming on the Map.” The Boston Globe, July 16, 2002, C-1. Krajick, Kevin. “Tracing Icebergs for Clues to Climate Change.” Science 292 ( June 22, 2001): 2244–2245. Kristof, Nicholas D. “Baked Alaska on the Menu?” The New York Times in Alameda Times-Star (Alameda, CA), September 14, 2003 (in LEXIS). Laxon, Seymour, Neil Peacock, and Doug Smith. “High Inter-annual Variability of Sea-Ice Thickness in the Arctic Region.” Nature 425 (October 30, 2003): 947– 950. Lean, Geoffrey. “Antarctic becomes Too Hot for the Penguins; Decline of ‘Dinner Jacket’ Species Is a Warning to the World.” London Independent, February 3, 2002, 9. Lynas, Mark. High Tide: The Truth About Our Climate Crisis. New York: Picador/St. Martin’s Press, 2004. ———. “Meltdown: Alaska is a Huge Oil Producer and Has Become Rich on the Proceeds. But It Has Suffered the Consequences; Global Warming, Faster and More Terrifyingly Than Anyone Could Have Predicted.” London Guardian, February 14, 2004, 22. McKie, Robin. “Decades of Devastation Ahead as Global Warming Melts the Alps: A Mountain of Trouble as Matterhorn Is Rocked by Avalanches.” London Observer, July 20, 2003, 18. “Melting Faster” (citing Geophyical Research Letters 34, L09501 (2007). “Editors’ Choice.” Science 316 (May 18, 2007): 955. “Monster Iceberg Heads into Antarctic Waters.” Agence France Presse, October 22, 2002 (in LEXIS). Montaigne, Fen. “The Heat Is On: Ecosigns.” National Geographic, September 2004, 34–55. “More Than 80 Per Cent of Spain’s Pyrenean Glaciers Melted Last Century.” Agence France Presse, September 29, 2004 (in LEXIS). Morton, Oliver. “The Tarps of Kilimanjaro.” The New York Times, November 17, 2003, http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/17/opinion/17MORT.html. Mote, Philip, and Georg Kaser. “The Shrinking Glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can Global Warming Be Blamed?” American Scientist, July–August 2007, http://www. americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/55553. Murphy, Kim. “Front-row Exposure to Global Warming; Climate: Engineers Say Alaskan Village Could Be Lost as Sea Encroaches.” Los Angeles Times, July 8, 2001, A-1.

Melting Ice “NASA Researchers Find Snowmelt in Antarctica Creeping Inland.” NASA Press Release, September 20, 2007, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/ NasaNews/2007/2007092025613.html. “Northwest Passage Nearly Open.” NASA Earth Observatory, August 27, 2007, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3? img id=17752. Pegg, J. R. “The Earth Is Melting, Arctic Native Leader Warns.” Environment News Service, September 16, 2004. http://www.ens-newswire.com. “Rare Sighting of Wasp North of Arctic Circle Puzzles Residents.” Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, September 9, 2004, http://www.cbc.ca/story/science/ national/2004/09/09/wasp040909.html. “Recent Warming of Arctic May Affect World-wide Climate.” National Aeronautics and Space Administration Press Release, October 23, 2003, http://www.gsfc. nasa.gov/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html. Regaldo, Antonio. “The Ukukus Wonder Why a Sacred Glacier Melts in Peru’s Andes.” The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2005, A-1, A-10. Revkin, Andrew C. “Forecast for a Warmer World: Deluge and Drought.” The New York Times, August 28, 2002, A-10. ———. “An Icy Riddle as Big as Greenland.” The New York Times, June 8, 2004, http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/08/science/earth/08gree.html. ———. “Study of Antarctic Points to Rising Sea Levels.” The New York Times, March 7, 2003, A-8. Rignot, Eric, Andr´es Rivera, and Gino Casassa. “Contribution of the Patagonia Icefields of South America to Sea Level Rise.” Science 302 (October 17, 2003): 434–437. Sabadini, Roberto.“Ice Sheet Collapse and Sea Level Change.” Science 295 (March 29, 2002): 2376–2377. Schiermeier, Quirin. “A Rising Tide: The Ice Covering Greenland Holds Enough Water to Raise the Oceans Six Metres—and It’s Starting to Melt.” Nature 428 (March 11, 2004): 114–115. Sengupta, Somini. “Glaciers in Retreat.” The New York Times, July 17, 2007, http: //www.nytimes.com/2007/07/17/science/earth/17glacier.html. Stroeve, J. C., M. C. Serreze, F. Fetterer, T. Arbetter, W. Meier, J. Maslanik, and K. Knowles. “Tracking the Arctic’s Shrinking Ice Cover: Another Extreme September Minimum in 2004.” Geophysical Research Letters 32(4) (February 25, 2005): L04501, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021810. Struck, Doug. “At the Poles, Melting Occurring at Alarming Rate.” The Washington Post, October 22, 2007, A-10, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ content/article/2007/10/21/AR2007102100761 pf.html. Tedesco, M., W. Abdalati, and H. J. Zwally. “Persistent Surface Snowmelt Over Antarctica (1987–2006) From 19.35 GHz Brightness Temperatures, Geophysical Research Letters, 34(September 22, 2007) L18504, doi:10.1029/2007GL031199). “Thin Polar Bears Called Sign of Global Warming.” Environmental News Service, May 16, 2002, http://ens-news.com/ens/may2002/2002L-05-16-07. html. Toner, Mike. “Arctic Ice Thins Dramatically, NASA Satellite Images Show.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, October 24, 2003, 1-A.

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Global Warming 101 ———. “Huge Ice Chunk Breaks Off Antarctica.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March 20, 2002, A-1. ———. “Meltdown in Montana; Scientists Fear Park’s Glaciers May Disappear within 30 Years.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, June 30, 2002, 4-A. Vidal, John. “Antarctica Sends Warning of the Effects of Global Warming: Scientists Stunned as Ice Shelf Falls Apart in a Month.” London Guardian, March 20, 2002, 3. ———. “Mountain Cultures in Grave Danger Says UN: Agriculture, Climate and Warfare Pose Dire Threat to Highland Regions Around the World.” London Guardian, October 24, 2002, 7. Von Radowitz, John. “Antarctic Wildlife ‘at Risk from Global Warming.’” Press Association News, September 9, 2002 (In LEXIS). Watt-Cloutier, Sheila. Personal communication. March 1, 2006. Whitfield, John. “Alaska’s Climate: Too Hot to Handle.” Nature 425 (September 25, 2003):338–339. Williams, Frances. “Everest Hit by Effects of Global Warming.” Financial Times (London), June 6, 2002, 2. Wohlforth, Charles. The Whale and the Supercomputer: On the Northern Front of Climate Change. New York: North Point Press/Farrar Straus Giroux, 2004. Wilson, Scott. “Warming Shrinks Peruvian Glaciers; Retreat of Andean Snow Caps Threatens Future for Valleys.” The Washington Post, July 9, 2001, A-1.

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Rising Seas On a practical level, rising seas provoked by melting ice and thermal expansion of seawater will be the most notable challenge related to global warming (ranging from inconvenience to disaster) for many people around the world. Human beings have an affinity for the open sea. Thus, many major population centers have been built within a mere meter or two of high tide. From Mumbai (Bombay) to London to New York City, many millions of people will find warming seawater lapping at their heels during coming decades. Sea levels have been rising slowly for a century or more, and the pace will increase in coming years. The New York City area, home to 20 million people, sits on numerous islands with about 1,500 miles of coastline, and more than 2,000 bridges and tunnels, most of them with entrances less than 3 meters above sea level (Lynas, 2007, 157–158). Less visible from the land, but just as profound, warming seas could affect patterns of oceanic flow around the world. There is speculation that warming seas could interfere with the thermohaline circulation that replenishes the world’s oceans with oxygen, leading to possible extinction of several sea creatures. Additionally, a large proportion of the planet’s coral reefs are also already suffering some degree of heat stress from warming waters. Additional warming could wipe out many of these “rainforests of the sea.” Many fisheries will change as cold-water fish move north or become extinct. Sea species usually identified with the tropics are already swimming into formerly cooler waters in places such as Britain and the U.S. Pacific Northwest. At the base of the food chain, phytoplankton stocks also have been reduced significantly by oceanic warming in some areas.

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THE PENETRATION OF WARMING INTO THE OCEANS

A team of oceanographers using a combination of observations and climate models had determined by 2005 that the penetration of humaninduced warming in the world’s oceans was unmistakable. Furthermore, the same team reported that roughly 84 percent of the extra heat that the entire Earth was absorbing had impacted the oceans during the previous 40 years (Barnett, 2005, 284). Their study concluded that “little doubt” exists “that there is a human-induced signal in the environment.” The record also leaves little doubt that the oceans will continue to warm. “How to respond to the serious problems posed by these predictions is a question that society must decide,” they wrote in Science (Barnett, 2005, 287). Generally, according to studies conducted by Tim Barnett, a marine physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, as much as 90 percent of greenhouse warming ends up in the oceans. Using the oceans’ absorption of heat, said Barnett, whose models have estimated the amount of oceanic warming during the past 40 years, “[t]he evidence [of greenhouse warming] really is overwhelming” (von Radowitz, 2005). During the spring of 2005, James E. Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and several other scientists published new temperature readings from the deep ocean that trace a clear warming trend indicative of the planet’s thermal inertia and energy imbalance—the difference between the amount of heat absorbed by Earth and the amount radiated out into space. This thermal imbalance (0.85 watts plus or minus 0.15 watts per square meter) is evidence of a steadily warming world, raising the odds of a catastrophic sudden change marked by rising seas and melting icecaps (Hansen et al., 2005, 1431). Hansen and colleagues concluded that the unusual magnitude of the warming trend could not be explained by natural variability but instead fit precisely with theories suggesting that human activity is the dominant “forcing agent.” “This energy imbalance is the ‘smoking gun’ that we have been looking for,” Hansen said in a summary of the study, which was published in the journal Science. “The magnitude of the imbalance agrees with what we calculated using known climate forcing agents, which are dominated by increasing human-made greenhouse gases. There can no longer be substantial doubt that human-made gases are the cause of most observed warming” (Hall, 2005, A-1). By Hansen’s estimate, 25 to 50 years are required for Earth’s surface temperature to reach 60 percent of its equilibrium response—a key

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concept when diplomacy and policy usually respond to experience rather than expectations of climate change. Regarding those expectations, 0.85 plus or minus 0.15 watts per square meter of excess heat absorbed by the Earth may not seem like much, but multiplied by many square meters over many years, it adds up. The Earth’s planetary energy imbalance did not exceed more than a few tenths of a watt per square meter before the 1960s, according to Hansen and colleagues. Since then, the excess heat that is being absorbed by the atmosphere has grown steadily, except for years after large volcanic eruptions, to a level much above historical averages. Much of this excess heat ends up in the oceans, where it helps to melt ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. In the measured tones with which scientists express themselves, accelerating ice melt could “create the possibility of a climate system in which large sea-level change is practically impossible to avoid” (Hansen et al., 2005, 1434). Hansen and colleagues wrote that continuing the present energy imbalance could lead to a climate that is “out of control” (Hansen et al., 2005, 1434). THE STAKES OF SEA LEVEL RISE

The oceans are the final “stop” in global warming’s feedback loop and potentially one of the most important for human beings—not because we live in the oceans, of course, but because more than 100 million people worldwide live within a meter of mean sea level (Meier and Dyurgerov, 2002, 350). The situation is particularly acute for island nations. Consider, for example, Indonesia. Jakarta and 69 other sizable cities along Indonesia’s coasts will probably be inundated as global warming causes ocean levels to rise during decades to come, according to Indonesia’s Secretary of Environment, Arief Yuwono (70 Cities, 2002). Regarding ocean warming, Tom Wigley, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, commented, “We’re heading into unknown territory, and we’re heading there faster than we ever have before” (Revkin, 2001, A-15). A taste of what’s to come in Greenland was provided late in 2004 through a report in Nature that described how Greenland’s Jakobshavn glacier’s advance toward the sea has accelerated significantly since 1997. The speed of the glacier nearly doubled between 1997 and 2004 to almost 50 cubic kilometers a year. This single glacier was responsible for about 4 percent of worldwide sea level rise during the twentieth century (Joughin et al., 2004, 608). Seas rising because of melting ice and thermal expansion were already swamping beaches, islands, and low-lying coastlines all over the globe

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in the early twenty-first century. At least 70 percent of sandy beaches around the world are now receding; in the United States, roughly 86 percent of East Coast barrier beaches (excluding evolving spit areas) have experienced erosion during the last century (Zhang et al., 2004, 41). In some areas, subsistence (the land level losing altitude) is compounding the problem. Removal of water (and sometimes oil and other resources) from below the ground has also complicated matters. “We’re losing the battle,” said Stanley Riggs, a geologist at East Carolina University in Greenville, North Carolina (Boyd, 2001, A-3). The Outer Banks (of North Carolina) have been eroding rapidly. “Highway 12 is falling into the ocean. What was once the third row of houses [on the beach] is now the first row,” Riggs told a National Academy of Sciences conference on coastal disasters (Boyd, 2001, A-3). SEA LEVEL RISE: LOCAL EXAMPLES

Since 1900 sea levels have risen 12.3 inches in New York City; 8.3 inches in Baltimore; 9.9 inches in Philadelphia; 7.3 inches in Key West, Florida; 22.6 inches in Galveston, Texas; and 6 inches in San Francisco (Boyd, 2001, A-3). The rate of sea level rise has been accelerating over time. At the port of Baltimore, at the head of Chesapeake Bay, for example, the water level crept up at only about one-tenth of an inch per year for much of the twentieth century. After 1989, however, the level rose by half an inch per year, according to Court Stevenson, a researcher at the University of Maryland’s Center for Environmental Science (Boyd, 2001, A-3). Sea levels have risen 12 to 20 inches on the Maine coast and as much as 2 feet along Nova Scotia’s coastline in 250 years, according to an international team of researchers. Global warming is the main factor, said Roland Gehrels, of the University of Plymouth in England. He said that the rate of sea level rise accelerated during the twentieth century, “as industrialization swept the globe” (Global Warming Blamed, 2001, 20-A). Alarm over rising sea levels and subsidence in Shanghai, China’s largest city (population 16 million), has prompted officials to consider building a dam across its main river, the Huangpu. “Its main function is to prevent the downtown areas from being inundated with floods,” Shen Guoping, an urban planning official, told the China Daily (Shanghai Mulls, 2004). Rising water levels of the Huangpu, provoked by rising sea levels due to global warming as well as subsidence, has resulted in construction of floodwalls hundreds of kilometers in length. At the

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Sea level measurements, Fort Point, San Francisco, 1900–2000 ( Jeff Dixon)

same time, subsidence caused by pumping of groundwater and rapid construction of skyscrapers has averaged over 10 millimeters a year. A 0.5- to 1-meter rise in sea levels could submerge three of India’s biggest cities (Mumbai, Calcutta, and Chennai) by 2020, according to Rajiv Nigam, a scientist with India’s Geological Oceanography Division. Nigam said that a 1-meter rise in sea level could cause 5 trillion rupees (roughly US$100 billion) worth of damage to property in the Indian state of Goa alone. “If this is the quantum of damage in a small state like Goa that has only two districts, imagine the extent of property loss in metros like Bombay (Mumbai),” Nigam added at a workshop in the National College in Dirudhy, Tamil Nadu (Warming Could Submerge, 2003). By the year 2000, rising sea levels were nibbling up to 150 meters a year from the low-lying, densely populated Nile River delta. In Rosetta, Egypt, a seawall two stories high has slowed the march of the sea, which is compounded by land subsidence in the delta, but “sea walls cannot stop the rising [salinity of] the palm groves and fields adjoining the shore” (Bunting, 2000, 1). A 1-meter rise in sea level could drown most of the Nile Delta, 12 percent of Egypt’s arable land, home, in 2004, to 7 million people.

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The Beach Drowns at Daytona, Florida As with many beaches on the Atlantic Seaboard and Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States, Daytona and Flagler Beaches, in northeastern Florida,

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Erosion at Flagler Beach, Florida (Bruce E. Johansen) have been eroding for decades not only because seas are rising, but also because the natural protection of dunes has been stripped away for condominium development. The land is also subsiding in many places because underground water has been removed for human consumption. Daytona is notable because it was on this beach that American stock car racing was born. Less than a century ago, the broad, firm beach was wide enough for several stock cars to race abreast. Today the beach is wide (and very wet) only at low tide, and the “Daytona 500,” which began on the beach, is held well inland on an asphalt track. Daytona is still the headquarters of NASCAR, the national coordinating body of stock car racing.

Ss SEA LEVEL RISE MAY SPEED UP

Writing in the March 2004 edition of Scientific American, James Hansen warned that catastrophic sea level increases could arrive much sooner than expected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Holly 2004). The IPCC has estimated sea level increases of roughly half a meter over the next century if global warming reaches several degrees Celsius above temperatures seen in the late 1800s (Holly, 2004). Hansen warned that if recent growth rates of carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases continue during the next 50 years, the

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resulting temperature increases could contribute to large increases in sea levels with potentially catastrophic effects. Hansen warned that because so many people live on coastlines within a few meters of sea level, a relatively small rise could endanger trillions of dollars worth of homes and other buildings. Additional warming already “in the pipeline” could take us halfway to paleoclimatic levels that raised the oceans 5 to 6 meters above present levels during the Eemian period, about 120,000 to 130,000 years ago (Hansen, 2004, 73). Past periods between ice ages (called interglacials) have started with enough ice melt to raise sea levels roughly a meter every 20 years, “which was maintained for several centuries” (Hansen, 2004, 73). An important issue in global warming, wrote Hansen, is sea level change, as related to “the question of how fast ice sheets can disintegrate” (Hansen, 2004, 73). “In the real world,” wrote Hansen, “[i]ce-sheet disintegration is driven by highly non-linear processes and feedbacks.” In nonscientific language, he is saying that seas can rise or fall very rapidly in a short time, without easily identifiable reasons. Although buildup of glaciers is gradual, “once an ice sheet begins to collapse, its demise can be spectacularly rapid” (Hansen, 2004, 74). The darkening of ice by black carbon aerosols (soot), pollution associated with the burning of fossil fuels, also accelerates melting. While the timing of melting is uncertain, wrote Hansen, “global warming beyond some limit will make a large sea-level change inevitable for future generations” (Hansen, 2004, 75). Hansen estimated that such a limit could be crossed with about 1◦ C of additional worldwide warming. This amount is below even the most conservative estimates of the IPCC for the next 50 years. EROSION ON THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST

Parts of coastal Louisiana and Mississippi could lose as much as 1 foot of elevation within 10 years according to an analysis by the National Geodetic Survey of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The NOAA researchers have warned that populated areas will face increased dangers from storm surges and flooding due to ongoing subsidence of coastal areas along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Coastal wetlands in Louisiana have been disappearing at the rate of 33 football fields per day (Bourne, 2004, 89). The NOAA researchers estimate that at the present rate of subsidence, 15,000 square miles of land along the southern Louisiana coast will subside to sea level or below within the next 70 years (Coastal Gulf, 2003). Shoreline in this area is sinking due to natural processes as well as the withdrawal of subsurface oil and water. In southern Louisiana, roughly 1 million acres of coastal

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marsh were converted to open water between 1940 and 2000, with losses accelerating over time with a quickening pace of sea level rise (Inkley et al., 2004, 8, 13). All of this makes the area especially vulnerable to hurricanes such as Katrina of 2005.

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Pacific Islands Going Under Many Pacific Ocean islands face two problems: the sea is rising while the land itself is slowly sinking, as 65-million-year-old coral atolls reach the end of their life spans. The atolls were formed as formerly volcanic peaks sank below the ocean’s surface, leaving rings of coral. For 5 years, the government of Tuvalu has noticed many such troubling changes on its nine inhabited islands and concluded that, as one of the smallest and most low-lying countries in the world, it is destined to become among the first nations to be sunk by a combination of global warmingprovoked sea level rise and slow erosion. The evidence before their own eyes, including forecasts for a rise in sea level as much as 88 centimeters during the twenty-first century by international scientists, has convinced most of Tuvalu’s 10,500 inhabitants that rising seas and more frequent violent storms are certain to make life unlivable on the islands, if not for them, for their children (Barkham, 2002, 24). Residents of the islands have been seeking higher ground, often in other countries. The number of Tuvalu’s residents living in New Zealand, for example, doubled from about 900 in 1996 to 2,000 in 2001, many of them fleeing the rising seas on their home islands. A sizable Tuvaluan community has grown up in West Auckland (Gregory, 2003). The highest point on Tuvalu is only about 3 meters above sea level. “From the air,” wrote Patrick Barkham in the London Guardian, “[i]ts islands are thin slashes of green against the aquamarine water. From a few miles out at sea, the nation’s numerous tiny uninhabited islets look smaller than a container ship and soon slip below the horizon” (Barkham, 2002, 24). “As the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean creeps up on to Tuvalu’s doorstep, the evacuation and shutting down of a nation has begun,” Barkham wrote. “With the curtains closed against the tropical glare, the prime minister, Koloa Talake, who sits at his desk wearing flip-flops and bears a passing resemblance to Nelson Mandela,” likens his task to the captain of a ship: “The skipper of the boat is always the last man to leave a sinking ship or goes down with the ship. If that happens to Tuvalu, the prime minister will be the last person to leave the island” (Barkham, 2002, 24). Many Pacific island farmers report that their crops of swamp taro (pulaka), a staple food, are dying because of rising soil salinity (Barkham, 2002, 24). Another staple food, breadfruit (artocarpus altilis), is also threatened by

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saltwater inundation. The breadfruit is harvested from large evergreen trees with smooth bark and large, thick leaves which reach a height of 20 meters (about 60 feet).

Ss INCREASING FLOODS EXPECTED IN BANGLADESH

Bangladesh, one of the poorest countries on Earth, is likely to suffer disproportionately from global warming. Cyclones there historically have killed many people; 130,000 people died in such a storm during April 1990. Less than one-fourth of Bangladesh’s rural population has electricity; the country, as a whole, emits less than 0.1 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases, compared to 24 percent by the United States (Huq, 2001, 1617). Bangladesh is planning to use solar energy for new energy infrastructure but lacks the money to build seawalls to fend off rising sea levels. Saleemul Huq, chairman of the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies in Dhaka and director of the Climate Change Programme of the International Institute for Environment and Development in London, said that the world community has an obligation to pay serious attention to the views of people who stand to lose the most from climate change (Huq, 2001, 1617). A sea level rise of half a meter (about 20 inches) could drown about 10 percent of Bangladesh’s habitable land, the home, in 2004, of roughly 6 million people. A 1-meter water level rise would put 20 percent of the country (and 15 million people) under water (Radford, 2004, 10). In addition to sea level rise caused by warming, large parts of the Ganges Delta are subsiding because water has been withdrawn for agriculture, compounding the problem.

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Venice, Italy, is Drowning Floods have been a problem in Venice, Italy, for most of its centuries-long history, but sinking land and slowly rising seas due to global warming have worsened flooding during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. Venice, which sits on top of several million wooden pillars pounded into marshy ground, has sunk by about 7.5 centimeters per century for the past 1,000 years. The rate is accelerating. Increased floods have provoked plans for movable barriers across the entrance to Venice’s lagoon. Venice has lost two-thirds of its population since 1950; the 60,000 people who still live in the city host 12 million tourists a year who make their way over planks into buildings with foundations rotted by frequent flooding.

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At the Danieli, one of Venice’s most luxurious hotels, tourists arrive on wooden planks raised 2 feet above the marble floors amidst a suffocating stench from the high water (Poggioli, 2002). Waters are rising around Venice for several reasons, in addition to slowly rising seas. During the twentieth century, mudflats that once impeded the sea’s advance were dredged for shipping and other forms of development. Venice is also subsiding due to the removal of water from its aquifers for human use (Nosengo, 2003, 609). Venice residents and visitors have become accustomed to drills for “acqua alta,” or high water. A system of sirens much like the ones that convey tornado warnings in the U.S. Midwest sounds when the water surges. Restaurants have stocked Wellington boots and moved their dining rooms upstairs. Venetian gondoliers ask their passengers to shift fore and aft—and watch their heads—as they pass under bridges during episodes of high water (Rubin, 2003). Some of the gondoliers have hacked off their boats’ distinctive tailfins to clear the bridges brought closer by rising waters. Faced with rising waters, Venice has proposed construction of massive retractable dikes in an attempt to hold the water at bay, amid considerable controversy. After 17 years of heated debate, the Venice’s MOSE (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) project will cost about US$1 billion. Some environmentalists assert that the barriers will destroy the tidal movement required to keep local lagoon waters free of pollution and thereby damage marine life. Water quality near Venice is already precarious because pollution has leached into the lagoon from industry, homes, and motor traffic. The Italian Green Party favors shaping the lagoon’s entrances to reduce the effects of tides, along with raising pavements as much as a meter inside Venice.

Ss WARMING AND POSSIBLE CHANGES IN OCEAN CIRCULATION

The term “thermohaline” is used to describe worldwide ocean circulation because water density (which causes it to rise or fall in the ocean) is determined by both temperature and salinity (saltiness). This flow is part of what marine scientists call the Global Conveyor, a vast submarine flow of water around the world. As part of this conveyor, water flows north from the tropics, in the Gulf Stream, which helps to keep Britain and much of Western Europe warmer than might be expected for such a northerly latitude. The Gulf Stream delivers 27,000 times more heat to British shores than all of the nation’s power stations supply (Radford, 2001, 3). The salinity of the North Atlantic is closely related to world ocean circulation. If the North Atlantic becomes too fresh (due, most likely, to melting Arctic ice), its waters could stop sinking, and the Conveyor

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Worldwide ocean circulation ( Jeff Dixon)

could slow, even perhaps stop. Spencer R. Weart, in The Discovery of Global Warming, provided a capsule description of possible changes in the ocean’s thermohaline circulation under the influence of sustained, substantial global warming: “If the North Atlantic around Iceland should become less salty—for example, if melting ice sheets diluted the upper ocean layer with fresh water—the surface layer would no longer be dense enough to sink. The entire circulation that drove cold water south along the bottom could lurch to a halt. Without the vast compensating drift of tropical waters northward, a new glacial period could begin” (Weart, 2003, 64). A report presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science during February 2005 by Ruth Curry, a scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, indicated that massive amounts of freshwater from melting Arctic ice were flowing into the Atlantic Ocean. According to Curry’s research, between 1965 and 1995, about 4,800 cubic miles of freshwater (more water than Lake Superior, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and Lake Huron combined) melted from the Arctic region and poured into the northern Atlantic. Curry projected that if this pattern continued at current rates, the thermohaline circulation might begin to shut down in about two decades. Furthermore, said Curry, Greenland’s ice, which had not been melting quickly, is now thawing at more rapid rates. “We are taking the

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first steps,” Curry said in a news conference. “The system is moving in that direction” (Borenstein, 2005, A-6). In the longer run, according to calculations by Curry and colleagues, “at the observed rate, it would take about a century to accumulate enough freshwater (e.g., 9,000 cubic thousand cubic meters) to substantially affect the ocean exchanges across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and nearly two centuries of continuous dilution to stop them (Curry et al., 2005, 1774). By 2007, however, other studies were discounting this possibility, as changes earlier believed to be long-term erosion were being regarded, instead, as part of natural variation. Stuart Cunningham of the National Oceanography Centre at Southampton, U.K., and colleagues found that the thermohaline circulation had varied by as much as 25 percent in a year. EVIDENCE THAT THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION MAY BE BREAKING DOWN

Evidence has been published indicating that ocean circulation is already breaking down, although researchers are unsure whether this is evidence of a natural cycle, an effect caused by warming sea waters, or both (H¨akkinen and Rhines, 2004, 559). Analysis has been restricted by the limited nature of data gathered before 1978. “These observations of rapid climatic changes over one decade [the 1990s] may merit some concern,” according to informed observers (H¨akkinen and Rhines, 2004, 559). Evidence suggests that the North Atlantic has cooled while the rest of the world has been warming—a possible result of thermohaline disruption. During the last half of the twentieth century, research reports indicate a “dramatic” increase in freshwater released into the North Atlantic by melting ice. This “freshening” is well under way (Speth, 2004, 61). According to scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, this is “the largest and most dramatic oceanic change ever measured in the era of modern instruments” (Scientists Warn, 2004). By 2002, the amount of freshwater entering the Arctic Ocean was 7 percent more than during the 1930s (Speth, 2004, 61). According to oceanographer Ruth Curry, sea surface waters in tropical regions have become dramatically saltier during the past 50 years, while surface waters at high latitudes, in Arctic regions, have become much fresher. These changes in salinity accelerated during the 1990s as global temperatures warmed. “This is the signature of increasing evaporation and precipitation” because of warming, Curry said, “and a sign of melting ice at the poles. These are consequences of global warming, either natural, human-caused or, more likely, both” (Cooke, 2003, A-2).

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Richard A. Kerr, writing in Science, said, “To Curry and her colleagues, it’s looking as if something has accelerated the world’s cycle of evaporation and precipitation by 5 percent to 10 percent, and that something may well be global warming” (Kerr, 2004, 35). These results indicate that freshwater has been lost from the low latitudes and added at high latitudes, at a pace exceeding the ocean circulation’s ability to compensate, the authors said. THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION: DEBATING POINTS

The idea that failure of the thermohaline circulation could cause colder temperatures on continents bordering the North Atlantic Ocean (North America and Europe) is highly debatable, as well as politically controversial. The debate was given extra force in 2001 when one of the idea’s major proponents backed away from it. Earlier, Wallace S. Broecker of Columbia University had stated that “business as usual” fossil fuel use could trigger an abrupt reorganization of the Earth’s thermohaline circulation. He also has said that doubling atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide could “cripple the ocean’s conveyor circulation” (Broecker, 2001, 83). Broecker (1987, 123–126; 1997, 1582–1588) suggested that if the Gulf Stream is blocked, winter temperatures in the British Isles could fall by an average of 11◦ C, plunging Liverpool or London to the same temperatures as Spitsbergen, inside the Arctic Circle. Any dramatic drop in temperature could have devastating implications for agriculture and for Europe’s ability to feed itself. In a book published by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, however, Broecker nearly reversed his earlier position. Broecker said, “I apologize for my previous sins,” of over-emphasizing the Gulf Stream’s role (Kerr, 2002, 2202). As is often the case in debates regarding global warming’s possible effects on the Earth’s ecosystem, the entire idea that a breakdown in the Gulf Stream could plunge Europe into a cold climate as the rest of the world experiences rising temperatures has been disputed. Is the Gulf Stream really the main climate driver warming Europe’s winters? In October 2002, a team of scientists writing in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society asserted that this popular assumption was incorrect. Rather, they maintained, Europe is warmed “by atmospheric circulation tweaked by the Rocky Mountains [and] . . . summer’s warmth lingering in the North Atlantic” (Kerr, 2002, 2202). Richard Seager of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, and David Battisti of the University of Washington headed this study, which sought to determine the relative influences of various influences on European climate. They noted that

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winds carry five times as more heat out of the tropics to the midlatitudes than oceanic currents. They also estimated that roughly “80 percent of the heat that cross-Atlantic winds picked up was summer heat briefly stored in the ocean rather than heat carried by the Gulf Stream” (Kerr, 2002, 2202). Seager and colleagues relegate the Gulf Stream to the role of a minor player in Europe’s wintertime climate. They asserted, however, that the Gulf Stream does play a major role in warming Scandinavia and keeping the far northern Atlantic free of ice (Seager et al., 2002, 2563). RISING CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS AND ACIDITY IN THE OCEANS MAY KILL MARINE LIFE

Carbon dioxide levels are now rising in the oceans more rapidly than at any time since the age of the dinosaurs, according to a report published on September 25, 2003 in Nature. Ken Caldeira and Michael E. Wickett wrote, “We find that oceanic absorption of CO2 from fossil fuels may result in larger pH changes over the next several centuries than any inferred in the geological record of the possible 300 million years, with the possible exception of those resulting from rare, extreme events such as bolide impacts or catastrophic methane hydrate degassing” (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003, 365). A “bolide” is a large extraterrestrial body (usually at least a half mile in diameter, perhaps much larger) that impacts the Earth at a speed roughly equal to that of a bullet in flight. Rising carbon dioxide levels in the oceans could threaten the health of many marine organisms, beginning with plankton at the base of the food chain. Regarding the acidification of the oceans, “[w]e’re taking a huge risk,” said Ulf Riebesell, a marine biologist at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Kiel, Germany. Chemical conditions in the oceans 100 years from now will probably have no equivalent in the geological past, “and key organisms may have no mechanisms to adapt to the change” (Schiermeier, 2004, 820). “If we continue down the path we are going, we will produce changes greater than any experienced in the past 300 million years—with the possible exception of rare, extreme events such as comet impacts,” Caldeira, of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, warned (Toner, 2003). Since carbon dioxide levels began to be measured on a systemic basis worldwide in 1958, its concentration in the atmosphere has risen 17 percent. Until now, some climate experts have asserted that the oceans would help to control the rise in carbon dioxide by acting as a filter. Caldeira and Michael Wickett said, however, that carbon dioxide that is removed from the atmosphere enters the oceans as carbonic acid, gradually raising the acidity of ocean water. According to their studies, the change

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over the last century already matches that of 10,000 years preceding the Industrial Age. Caldeira pointed to acid rain from industrial emissions to indicate the severity of coming changes in the oceans. “Most ocean life resides near the surface, where the greatest change would be expected to come, but deep ocean life may prove to be even more sensitive to changes,” Caldeira said (Toner, 2003). Marine plankton and other organisms whose skeletons or shells contain calcium carbonate, which can be dissolved by acid solutions, may be particularly vulnerable. Coral reefs, which already are suffering from pollution, rising ocean temperatures, and other stresses, are almost entirely calcium carbonate (Toner, 2003). “It’s difficult to predict what will happen because we haven’t really studied the range of impacts,” Caldeira said. “But we can say that if we continue business as usual, we are going to see some significant changes in the acidity of the world’s oceans” (Toner, 2003). PHYTOPLANKTON DEPLETION AND WARMING SEAS

Several sea species, notably zooplankton (a major base of the oceanic food chain), have moved toward the poles between 1960 and 1999 in response to increasing water temperatures. “We provide evidence of largescale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans in the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean and European shelf seas. . . . Strong bio-geographical shifts in all copepod assemblages have occurred with a northward extension of more than 10 degrees latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species,” wrote Gregory Beaugrand and colleagues in Science (Beaugrand et al., 2002, 1692). This study was based on an analysis of 176,778 samples collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey taken monthly in the North Atlantic since 1946. The scientists wrote, “The observed bio-geographical shifts may have serious consequences for exploited resources in the North Sea, especially fisheries. If these changes continue, they could lead to substantial modifications in the abundance of fish, with a decline or even a collapse in the stock of boreal species such as cod, which is already weakened by over-fishing” (Beaugrand et al., 2002, 1693–1694). CORAL REEFS “ON THE EDGE OF DISASTER”

Aside from the obvious ravages of fishermen who blast the reefs and pour cyanide on them, the reefs are also threatened by rising ocean temperatures that many marine biologists attribute to global warming and short-term climate events such as El Nino episodes in the Pacific Ocean. Most corals live very close to the upper limits of their heat

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A coral reef ( Jeff Dixon)

tolerance. Temperature rises of only a few degrees over a sustained period cause death of living organisms within coral reefs. The scope of corals’ devastation from climate change and other human impacts rivals the losses endured by the flora and fauna of the world’s great rainforests. According to a number of estimates, half of the world’s coral reefs may be lost by 2025 unless urgent action is taken to save them from the ravages of pollution, fishing with dynamite and other explosives, and warming waters. Many of the coral reefs that are falling prey to human-induced destruction are among the largest living structures on Earth. Many are more than 100 million years old. Coral that has lost its ability to sustain plant and animal life turns white, as if it has been doused in bleach. Afterwards, the dead coral often becomes cloaked in a choking shroud of gray algae. Because coral polyps and their calcium carbonate skeletons “are the foundation of the entire ecosystem, fish, mollusks, and countless other species, unable to survive in this colorless graveyard, rapidly disappear, too” (Lynas, 2004, 107). Warnings of coral reefs’ destruction have been widespread in the scientific literature. The journal Science, for example, devoted a cover story to the subject in its August 15, 2003, issue, wherein T. P. Hughes and colleagues concluded that “[t]he diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally” (Hughes et al., 2003, 929). Prominent among these

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impacts is anthropogenic warming of the atmosphere and oceans that may exceed limits under which corals have flourished for a half-million years. Some types of corals are more vulnerable to warming than others, however, so “reefs will change rather than disappear entirely” (Hughes et al., 2003, 929). Rising ocean temperatures, however, will certainly reduce biological diversity among corals. Callum M. Roberts and colleagues, writing in Science, sketched the scope of possible extinctions faced by the world’s coral reefs: Analyses of the geographic ranges of 3,235 species of reef fish, corals, snails, and lobsters revealed that between 7.2 percent and 53.6 percent of each taxon [type of coral] have highly restricted ranges, rendering them vulnerable to extinction. . . . The 10 richest centers of endemism cover 15.8 per cent of the world’s coral reefs (0.012 per cent of the oceans) but include between 44.8 and 54.2 per cent of the restricted-range species. Many occur in regions where reefs are being severely affected by people, potentially leading to numerous extinctions. (Roberts et al., 2002, 1280)

Traveling in the Indian Ocean, Mark Spalding, lead author of the World Atlas of Coral Reefs (Spalding et al., 2001) wrote, in the London Guardian, Over the next six weeks we watched the corals of the Seychelles die. Corals are to reefs what trees are to forests. They build the structure around which other communities exist. As the corals died they remained in situ [in place] and the reefs became, to us, graveyards. Fine algae grows over a dead coral within days, and so the reefs took on a brownish hue, cob-webbed. In fact, the fish still teemed and in many ways it still appeared to be business as usual, but as we traveled—over 1,500 kilometers across the Seychelles—the scale of this disaster began to sink in. Everywhere we went was the same, and virtually all the coral was dying or already dead. . . . What I witnessed in the Seychelles was repeated in the Maldives and the Chagos Archipelago. In these Indian Ocean islands alone, 80 to 90 per cent of all the coral died. (Spalding, 2001, 8; Spalding et al., 2001)

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Warming Waters Choke Life out of Lake Tanganyika Two independent teams of scientists studying central Africa’s Lake Tanganyika, Africa’s second-largest body of freshwater, have found that warming at the lake’s surface has reduced mixing of nutrients, reducing the lake’s population of fish. These reductions affected the local economy as fishing yields fell by a third or more during 30 years, with more declines expected. When its waters were cooler, Lake Tanganyika’s fish supplied 25 to

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40 percent of the protein consumed by neighboring peoples in parts of Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Lake Tanganyika is a tropical body of water that experiences relatively high temperatures year-round, so the scientists were surprised to discover that further warming affected its nutrient balance to such a great degree. Like other deepwater lakes, however, Tanganyika relies on temperature differences at various depths to mix water and nutrients. Such mixing is very critical in tropical lakes with sharp temperature gradients that stratify layers of water, with warm, less-dense layers on top of nutrient-rich waters below. “Climate warming is diminishing productivity in Lake Tanganyika,” Catherine M. O’Reilly and colleagues wrote. “In parallel with regional warming patterns since the beginning of the twentieth century,” they continued, “a rise in surface-water temperature has increased the stability of the water column” (O’Reilly et al., 2003, 766). A regional decrease in average wind speed over the lake also contributed to reduced mixing of the 1,470-meterdeep lake, “decreasing deep-water nutrient upwelling and entrainment into surface waters” (O’Reilly et al., 2003, 766). Fish yields have declined roughly 30 percent, the scientists wrote, in an example “that the impact of regional effects of global climate change on aquatic ecosystem functions can be larger than that of local anthropogenic activity or over-fishing” (O’Reilly et al., 2003, 766). Lake Tanganyika is especially vulnerable because yearround tropical temperatures accelerate biological processes, “and new nutrient inputs from the atmosphere or rock weathering cannot keep up with the high rates of algal photosynthesis and decomposition” (Verschuren, 2003, 731–732). Lake Tanganyika is the second-deepest lake in the world and the secondrichest in terms of biological diversity; it has at least 350 species of fish, with new ones being discovered regularly. Nutrient mixing has been vital for its biodiversity (Connor, 2003). Piet Verburg, of the University of Waterloo in Canada, and O’Reilly, of the University of Arizona, who led the studies, found that warmer temperatures and less windy weather in the region has been starving the lake’s life of essential salts that contain nitrogen and sulfur (Verburg et al., 2003, 505–507). Verburg and colleagues utilized profiles of temperature changes in the lake between 110 and 800 meters deep and found that degree of temperature stratification had tripled. In other words, the various levels of the lake had mixed less, depriving fish of food since 1913. O’Reilly and colleagues, writing in Nature, suggested that the lake’s productivity, measured by the amount of photosynthesis, has fallen by 20 percent, which could easily account for the 30 percent decline in fish yields. The scientists said that climate change, rather than overfishing, was mainly responsible for the collapse in Tanganyika’s fish stocks. With additional warming, fish populations in the lake are expected by the scientists to decline further (Connor, 2003).

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“The human implications of such subtle, but progressive, environmental changes are potentially dire in this densely populated region of the world, where large lakes are essential natural resources for regional economies,” the scientists said. Dirk Verschuren, a freshwater biologist at Ghent University in Belgium, said that both studies could explain why sardine catches in Lake Tanganyika have declined between 30 and 50 percent since the late 1970s (Verschuren, 2003, 731–732). “Since overexploitation is at most a local problem on some fishing grounds, the principal cause of this decline has remained unknown,” Verschuren said. “Taken together . . . the data in the two papers provide strong evidence that the effect of global climate change on regional temperature has had a greater impact on Lake Tanganyika than have local human activities. Their combined evidence covers all the important links in the chain of cause and effect between climate warming and the declining fishery” (Connor, 2003).

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Increasing Populations and Potency of Jellyfish Some sea species thrive on conditions that kill others. For example, consider jellyfish, which seem to increase their size and populations (as well as potency of their stings) in warmer, polluted waters. In some areas the increase also appears to be part of a natural cycle (jellyfish populations are also declining in a few other areas) (Pohl, 2002, F-3). By the summer of 2004, reports indicated that jellyfish populations were on the rise in Puget Sound, the Bering Strait, and the harbors of Tokyo and Boston. “Smacks” or swarms of jellyfish shut down fisheries in Narragansett Bay, parts of the Gulf of Alaska, and sections of the Black Sea. In the Philippines, 50 tons of jellyfish shut down a power plant, causing blackouts, when they were sucked into its cooling system (Carpenter, 2004, 68). In late July 2003, thousands of barrel jellyfish and moon jellyfish washed up on the coast of southern Wales. “Jellies are a pretty good group of animals to track coastal ecosystems,” said Monty Graham, a scientist at the University of South Alabama. “When you start to see jellyfish numbers grow and grow, that usually indicates a stressed system” (Pohl, 2002, F-3). Those stresses include increased water temperature, a rise in nutrients (from fertilizers and sewage), and depleted stocks of other fish, often caused by overfishing, which removes the jellyfish’s competitors. All of these changes are usually human-caused, according to Graham. In Australia, regarding jellyfish stings, Jamie Seymour, a jellyfish expert at James Cook University, said in 2002, “This year [was] incredibly abnormal” (Pohl, 2002, F-3). Seymour believes that strong, unusual wind patterns helped to blow the jellyfish toward the shore, where they flourished in

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A jellyfish (scyphomedusa or sea nettle) ( Jeff Dixon) unseasonably warm waters. Seymour, who has analyzed the venom from each sting that receives hospital treatment in the Barrier Reef region for years, had never seen the type of venom that killed two tourists in 2002. In the Gulf of Mexico, according to a report in The New York Times, shrimp fishermen are struggling with a rising numbers of jellyfish that fill their nets with slimy gelatin, ruining their catch (Pohl, 2002, F-3). At about the same time when increasingly potent jellyfish were being found in the South Pacific, a report appeared in The Boston Globe describing a massive infestation of jellyfish in Narragansett Bay and Long Island Sound. A group of fishermen who expected “an array of marine life in their nets . . . got jellyfish, nothing but jellyfish; jellyfish so plentiful that the gelatinous organisms came up dangling through the net like slimy icicles. And with each haul came more” (Arnold, 2002, C-1). “Eventually it seemed that our deck was coated with Vaseline,” said Captain Eric Pfirrmann, who works for Save The Bay, a group whose members engage in environmental issues related to Rhode Island’s Narragansett Bay. He piloted a research vessel that had taken several high school teachers on a marine field trip. “I’ve seen blooms like this before,” Pfirrmann said, “but never so early in the summer.” The culprit is a nonstinging invertebrate about the size and shape of a tulip blossom and commonly known as the combjelly. These jellyfish, along with sea squirts (an entirely different organism), were taking over Long Island Sound, thriving in large part because water temperatures have risen about 3◦ F over the past two decades, according to scientists (Arnold, 2002, C-1).

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REFERENCES “70 Cities in Indonesia Will Be Inundated.” Antara, the Indonesian National News Agency, September 25, 2002 (in LEXIS). Arnold, David. “Global Warming Lends Power to a Jellyfish in Narragansett Bay and Long Island Sound; Non-native Species are Taking Over.” The Boston Globe, July 2, 2002, C-1. Barkham, Patrick. “Going Down: Tuvalu, a Nation of Nine Islands—Specks in the South Pacific—Is in Danger of Vanishing, a Victim of Global Warming. As their Homeland Is Battered by Ferocious Cyclones and Slowly Submerges under the Encroaching Sea, What Will Become of the Islanders?” London Guardian, February 16, 2002, 24. Barnett, Tim P., David W. Pierce, Krishna M. AchutaRao, Peter J. Gleckler, Benjamin D. Santer, Jonathan M. Gregory, and Warren M. Washington. “Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World’s Oceans.” Science 309 (July 8, 2005): 284–287. Beaugrand, Gregory, Philip C. Reid, Fr´ed´eric Iba˜ nez, J. Alistair Lindley, and Martin Edwards. “Reorganization of North Atlantic Marine Copepod Biodiversity and Climate.” Science 296 (May 31, 2002): 1692–1694. Borenstein, Seth. “Scientists Worry About Evidence of Melting Arctic Ice.” The Seattle Times, February 18, 2005, A-6. Bourne, Joel K., Jr. “The Big Uneasy.” National Geographic, October 2004, 88–105. Boyd, Robert S. “Rising Tides Raises Questions; Satellites will Provide Exact Measurements.” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, December 9, 2001, A-3. Broecker, W. S. “Unpleasant Surprises in the Greenhouse?” Nature 328 (1987): 123– 126. ———. “Thermohaline Circulation: The Achilles Heel of Our Climate System: Will Man-made CO2 Upset the Current Balance?” Science 278 (1997): 1582–1588. ———. “Are We Headed for a Thermohaline Catastrophe?” In Lee C. Gerhard, William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds., Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change. AAPG [American Association of Petroleum Geologists] Studies in Geology #17. Tulsa, OK: AAPG, 2001, 83–95. Bunting, Madeleine. “Confronting the Perils of Global Warming in a Vanishing Landscape: As Vital Talks Begin at the Hague, Millions Are Already Suffering the Consequences of Climate Change.” London Guardian, November 14, 2000, 1. Caldeira, Ken, and Michael E. Wickett. “Oceanography: Anthropogenic Carbon and Ocean pH.” Nature 425 (September 25, 2003): 365. Carpenter, Betsy: “Feeling the Sting: Warming Oceans, Depleted Fish Stocks, Dirty Water—They Set the Stage for a Jellyfish Invasion.” U.S. News & World Report, August 16, 2004, 68–69. “Coastal Gulf States Are Sinking.” Environment News Service, April 21, 2003. http://ens-news.com/ens/apr2003/2003-04-21-09.asp#anchor4. Connor, Steve. “Global Warming Is Choking the Life Out of Lake Tanganyika.” London Independent, August 14, 2003 (in LEXIS). Cooke, Robert. “Waters Reflect Weather Trend; Study Finds Warming Effects.” Newsday, December 18, 2003, A-2. Curry, Ruth, and Cecilie Mauritzen. “Dilution of the Northern North Atlantic Ocean in Recent Decades.” Science 308 (June 17, 2005): 1772–1774.

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Global Warming 101 “Global Warming Blamed for Rising Sea Levels.” Associated Press in Omaha WorldHerald, November 25, 2001, 20-A. Gregory, Angela. “Fear of Rising Seas Drives More Tuvaluans to New Zealand.” The New Zealand Herald, February 19, 2003. (in LEXIS). H¨akkinen, Sirpa, and Peter B. Rhines. “Decline of Subpolar North Atlantic Circulation During the 1990s.” Science 304 (April 23, 2004): 555–559. Hall, Carl T. “Ocean Tells the Story: Earth is Heating Up; Human Activity, Not Variables in Nature, Cited as Culprit.” San Francisco Chronicle, April 29, 2005, A-1. Hansen, James. “Defusing the Global Warming Time Bomb.” Scientific American 290(3) (March 2004): 68–77. Hansen, James, Larissa Nazarenko, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Josh Willis, Anthony Del Genio, Dorothy Koch, Andrew Lacis, Ken Lo, Surabi Menon, Tica Novakov, Judith Perlwitz, Gary Russell, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Nicholas Tausnev. “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications.” Science 308 (June 3, 2005): 1431–1435. Holly, Chris. “Sea-level Rise Seen as Key Global Warming Threat.” The Energy Daily 32(36) (February 25, 2004). (in LEXIS). Hughes, T. P., A. H. Baird, D. R. Bellwood, M. Card, S. R. Connolly, C. Folke, R. Grosberg, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, J. B. C. Jackson, J. Kleypas, J. M. Lough, P. Marshall, M. Nystrm, S. R. Palumbi, J. M. Pandolfi, B. Rosen, and J. Roughgarden. “Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs.” Science 301 (August 15, 2003): 929–933. Huq, Saleemul. “Climate Change and Bangladesh.” Science 294 (November 23, 2001): 1617. Inkley, D. B., M. G. Anderson, A. R. Blaustein, V. R. Burkett, B. Felzer, B. Griffith, J. Price, and T. L. Root. Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America. Washington, DC: The Wildlife Society, 2004, http://www.nwf.org/news. Joughin, I., W. Abdalati, and M. Fahnestock. “Large Fluctuations in Speed on Greenland’s Jakobshavn Isbrae Glacier.” Nature 432 (December 2, 2004): 608–610. Kerr, Richard A. “European Climate: Mild Winters Mostly Hot Air, Not Gulf Stream.” Science 297 (September 27, 2002): 2202. ———. “Climate Change: Sea Change in the Atlantic.” Science 303 (January 2, 2004): 35. Lynas, Mark. High Tide: The Truth About Our Climate Crisis. New York: Picador/St. Martin’s Press, 2004. ———. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. London: Fourth Estate (HarperCollins), 2007. Meier, Mark F., and Mark B. Dyurgerov. “Sea-level Changes: How Alaska Affects the World.” Science 297 (July 19, 2002): 350–351. Nosengo, Niccola. “Venice Floods: Save Our City!” Nature 424(August 7, 2003): 608–609. O’Reilly, Catherine M., Simone R. Alin, Pierre-Denis Plisnier, Andrew S. Cohen, and Brent A. McKee. “Climate Change Decreases Aquatic Ecosystem Productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa.” Nature 424 (August 14, 2003): 766–768. Poggioli, Sylvia. “Venice Struggling with Increased Flooding.” National Public Radio Morning Edition, November 29, 2002 (in LEXIS). Pohl, Otto. “New Jellyfish Problem Means Jellyfish Are Not the Only Problem.” The New York Times, May 21, 2002, F-3.

Rising Seas Radford, Tim. “As the World Gets Hotter, Will Britain Get Colder? Plunging Temperatures Feared After Scientists Find Gulf Stream Changes.” London Guardian, June 21, 2001, 3. ———. “2020: The Drowned World.” London Guardian, September 11, 2004, 10. Revkin, Andrew C. “Two New Studies Tie Rise in Ocean Heat to Greenhouse Gases.” The New York Times, April 13, 2001, A-15. Roberts, Callum M., Colin J. McClean, John E. N. Veron, Julie P. Hawkins, Gerald R. Allen, Don E. McAllister, Cristina G. Mittermeier, Frederick W. Schueler, Mark Spalding, Fred Wells, Carly Vynne, and Timothy B. Werner. “Marine Biodiversity Hotspots and Conservation Priorities for Tropical Reefs.” Science 295 (February 15, 2002): 1280–1284. Rubin, Daniel. “Venice Sinks as Adriatic Rises.” Knight-Ridder News Service, July 1, 2003 (in LEXIS). Schiermeier, Quirin. “Researchers Seek to Turn the Tide on Problem of Acid Seas.” Nature 430 (August 19, 2004): 820. “Scientists Warn of Imminent New Ice Age; Global warming will plunge Britain into New Ice Age ‘Within Decades.’“ London Independent, January 25, 2004. http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/climatechange wef.html Seager, R., D. S. Battisti, J. Yin, N. Gordon, N. Naik, A. C. Clement, and M. A. Kane. “Is the Gulf Stream Responsible for Europe’s Mild Winters?” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 128 (2002): 2563–2586. “Shanghai Mulls Building Dam to Ward off Rising Sea Levels.” Agence France Presse, February 9, 2004 (in LEXIS). Spalding, Mark. “Coral Grief: Rising Temperatures, Pollution, Tourism and Fishing Have All Helped to Kill Vast Stretches of Reef in the Indian Ocean. Yet, with Simple Management, Says Mark Spalding, the Marine Life Can Recover.” London Guardian, September 12, 2001, 8. Spalding, Mark, Corinna Ravilious, and Edmund P. Green. World Atlas of Coral Reefs. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2001. Speth, James Gustave. Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2004. Toner, Mike. “Oceans’ Acidity Worries Experts; Report: Carbon Dioxide on Rise, Marine Life at Risk.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, September 25, 2003 (in LEXIS). Verburg, Piet, Robert E. Hecky, and Hedy Kling. “Ecological Consequences of a Century of Warming in Lake Tanganyika.” Science 301 (July 25, 2003): 505–507. Verschuren, Dirk. “Global Change: The Heat on Lake Tanganyika.” Nature 424 (August 14, 2003): 731–732. von Radowitz, John. “Global Warming ‘Smoking Gun’ Found in the Oceans.” Press Associated Ltd., February 18, 2005 (in LEXIS). “Warming Could Submerge Three of India’s Largest Cities: Scientist.” Agence France Presse, December 6, 2003 (in LEXIS). Weart, Spencer R. The Discovery of Global Warming. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2003. Zhang, Keqi, Bruce C. Douglas, and Stephen P. Leatherman. “Global Warming and Coastal Erosion.” Climatic Change 64(1/2) (May 2004): 41–58.

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Plants, Animals, and Human Health The growth of human populations around the world along with resulting habitat loss and pollution have, together with warming temperatures during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, set the stage for one of the great mass extinctions of plants and animals in the geophysical history of the Earth. “The biotic response to 30 years of enhanced global warming [1970–2000] has become perceptible and substantial,” wrote Gian-Reto Walther, who has published several scientific “meta studies” that evaluate hundreds of specific articles evaluating the response of flora and fauna to changing climatic conditions (Walther, 2003, 177). Walther’s surveys range the world, describing increasing stands of palm trees in Switzerland (Walther et al., 2002, 129–139) and the migration of frost-sensitive tropical plants up on the mountains in Hong Kong, as well as the northern movement of holly in Scandinavia (Walther, 2003, 173), to cite three examples of many. Scientists have examined periods in the distant past in which rapid increases in worldwide temperatures from natural causes led to widespread extinctions of plants and animals. These episodes are not being studied only as academic exercises but as examples of what can happen when Earth’s climate heats suddenly, as is expected during the expected global warming of the twenty-first century. Along this road, other scientists have been exploring how “enhanced” (that is, unusually elevated) levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases affect plant growth and reproduction. Effects on the behavior and reproduction of many animal species, including human beings, were already becoming evident at the beginning of the century. What follows is a survey of a world in flux, with the major changes in the lives of Earth’s plant and animals still to come. Not all plants and animals will be harmed by a rapidly warming environment. Unfortunately, however, most of these are species that

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humankind finds obnoxious, such as poison ivy, ragweed, jellyfish, and ticks. MASS EXTINCTIONS WITHIN A CENTURY?

We are now witnessing one of the Earth’s most intense, rapid, and pervasive mass extinctions, which has placed in harm’s way many plants and animals that humankind does not eat or keep as pets. The Earth has experienced mass extinctions before, but all of them have been more gradual than today’s, and they have resulted from natural causes. Global warming is a product of humankind’s increasing dominance of the Earth that is devastating the native habits of many animals and plants, driving increasing numbers to the brink of extinction. Compared to past mass extinctions, which were caused by natural catastrophes such as meteor strikes or large-scale volcanic eruptions, the present-day human-driven wave of extinctions has been occurring with frightening speed. Given the projected rises in temperature during decades to come, the plants and animals of our home planet have thus far seen only their first troubles. In the first study of its kind, researchers of a range of habitats including northern Britain, the wet tropics of northeastern Australia, and the Mexican desert said early in 2004 that given “mid-range” climate change scenarios for 2050, they expect that 15 to 37 percent of the species in the regions they studied (covering 20 percent of Earth’s surface) will be “committed to extinction” (Thomas et al., 2004, 145). The number of extinctions is expected to vary with the amount of warming. The study used United Nations projections that world average temperatures will rise 2.5◦ F to 10.4◦ F by 2100. “We’re not talking about the occasional extinction—we’re talking about 1.25 million species. It’s a massive number,” the authors of this study wrote (Gugliotta, 2004, A-1). The study, described in Nature, was the first time that scientists have produced a global analysis with estimates of the effect of climate change on many various animal and plant habitats. Thomas led a 19-member international team that surveyed habitat decline for 1,103 plant and animal species in Europe; Queensland, Australia; Mexico’s Chihuahua Desert; the Brazilian Amazon; and the Cape Floristic Region at South Africa’s southern tip (Gugliotta, 2004, A-1). MASS EXTINCTIONS: WHAT HAPPENED 250 MILLION YEARS AGO?

The worst mass extinction in the history of the planet could be replicated in as little as a century if global warming continues at the pace

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forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Researchers at England’s Bristol University have estimated that a 6◦ C (10◦ F) increase in global temperatures was enough to play a role in up to a 95 percent extinction rate of species which were alive on Earth at the end of the Permian period 251 million years ago. This is roughly the same amount of warming expected by the IPCC, if levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to rise at present rates (Reynolds, 2003, 6). The temperature rise 251 million years ago occurred over thousands of years, however, while the one which we are now experiencing could happen in a century. According to present theories, first advanced by Anthony Hallam and Paul Wignall (1997), the volcanic eruptions 251 million years ago triggered climatic feedbacks that accelerated global warming of about 6◦ C. The wave of mass extinction at the end of the Permian period was probably caused by a series of very large volcanic eruptions that triggered a runaway greenhouse effect that nearly extinguished life on Earth. Conditions in what geologists have called a “post-apocalyptic greenhouse” were so severe that 100 million years passed before species diversity returned to former levels. Michael Benton, head of earth sciences at Bristol University, commented, “The end-Permian crisis nearly marked the end of life. It’s estimated that fewer than one in ten species survived. Geologists are only now coming to appreciate the severity of this global catastrophe and to understand how and why so many species died out so quickly” (Reynolds, 2003, 6). The Permian heat wave was felt first and most intensely in tropical regions; loss of species diversity spread from there. Reduction of vegetation, soil erosion, and the effects of increasing rainfall wiped out the lush, diverse habitats of the tropics, which would today lead to the loss of animals such as hippos, elephants, and many primates, according to Benton (Reynolds, 2003, 6). He added, “The end-Permian extinction event is a good model for what might happen in the future because it was fairly non-specific. The sequence of what happened then is different from today because then the carbon dioxide came from massive volcanic eruptions, whereas today it is coming from industrial activity. However, it doesn’t matter where this gas comes from; the fact is that if it is pumped into the atmosphere in high volumes, then that gives us the greenhouse effect and leads to the warming with all the other consequences” (Reynolds, 2003, 6). In a chapter of his book When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time (2003) titled “What Caused the Biggest Catastrophe of

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all Time?” Benton sketched how the warming (which was accompanied by anoxia) may have fed upon itself: The end-Permian runaway greenhouse may have been simple. Release of carbon dioxide from the eruption of the Siberian Traps [volcanoes] led to a rise in global temperatures of 6 degrees C. or so. Cool polar regions became warm and frozen tundra became unfrozen. The melting might have penetrated to the frozen gas hydrate reservoirs located around the polar oceans, and massive volumes of methane may have burst to the surface of the oceans in huge bubbles. This further input of carbon into the atmosphere caused more warming, which could have melted further gas hydrate reservoirs. So the process went on, running faster and faster. The natural systems that normally reduce carbon dioxide levels could not operate, and eventually the system spiraled out of control, with the biggest crash in the history of life. (Benton, 2003, 276–277)

Greg Retallack, an expert in ancient soils at the University of Oregon in Eugene, has speculated that the same methane “belch” was of such a magnitude that it changed the composition of the air enough to provoke mass extinction of some land animals by oxygen starvation. Bob Berner of Yale University has calculated that a cascade of effects involving wetlands and coral reefs may have reduced oxygen levels in the atmosphere from 35 percent to just 12 percent in only 20,000 years. Marine life may also have suffocated in oxygen-poor water (Suffocation, 2003). One animal, the meter-long reptile, Lystrosaurus, survived because it had evolved to live in burrows, where oxygen levels were low and carbon dioxide levels high. According to a report by the New Scientist News Service, “[i]t had developed a barrel chest, thick ribs, enlarged lungs, a muscular diaphragm and short internal nostrils to get the oxygen it needed” (Suffocation, 2003). According to Chris Lavers, writing in Why Elephants Have Big Ears (2000), a spike of worldwide warming contributed to this mass extinction in part because all of the Earth’s continents at the time were combined into one land mass (Lavers, 2000, 231). Warming of tropical regions at this time has been estimated at about 11◦ F, with larger rises near the poles that tended to create a generally warm atmosphere planet-wide, “a flattening of the temperature difference between the poles and the equator” (Lavers, 2000, 232), a condition that Lavers suspects drastically slowed or shut down ocean mixing (Thermohaline Circulation; see Chapter 4), killing many sea creatures. “Unstirred,” wrote Lavers, “the oceans begin to stagnate. Deep waters gradually lost oxygen, and species began to vanish” (Lavers, 2000, 233).

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

REDUCED CROP YIELDS

Popular belief often assumes that because plants use carbon dioxide to respire (“breathe”), more of it will help them grow faster and stronger. Such an assumption turns out to be very simplistic. Added heat and humidity also can increase insect infestations and disease in plants. For example, the same fungus that caused the Irish potato famine has migrated 4,000 feet up the slopes in the Andes to the town of Chacllabamba, Peru, because of warmer, wetter weather. Potato breeders are trying to outwit the fungus by developing new breeds of tubers (Halweil, 2005, 18). Hartwell Allen, a researcher at the University of Florida, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, has been growing rice, soybeans, and peanuts under controlled conditions, varying temperatures, humidity, and carbon dioxide levels. They have found that while higher temperatures (to a point) and carbon dioxide levels stimulate faster and denser growth, both create problems at most plants’ flowering and pollination stages. At temperatures above 36◦ C during pollination, peanut yields dropped 6 percent per degree Celsius of temperature. John Sheehy of the International Rice Research Institute in Manila found that damage to the world’s major grain crops begins during flowering at about 30◦ C. At about 40◦ C, the plants’ yields fall to zero. At his center, the average temperature has risen 2.5◦ C in 50 years, frequently reaching damaging levels. In rice, wheat, and maize, yields fall 10 percent for every degree above 30◦ C. Higher nighttime temperatures in particular inhibits plants’ ability to respire and saps their energy (Halweil, 2005, 19–20). Planting of shade trees amongst crops may help reduce heat stress in the short run. Global warming is creating a drag on production of the world’s food and animal feed crops, as well as the raw materials for biofuels, according to scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University. In the journal Environmental Research Letters, two ecologists reported that yields of corn, wheat and barley had declined by about 40 million tons every year since 1981 from what farms worldwide should have produced. The annual value of those lost crops is about $5 billion(Hoffman, 2007). Crop yields have been climbing generally, continuing for almost half a century of improvements in plant varieties, fertilizers, and irrigation. An analysis by Livermore climate scientist David Lobell and Christopher Field, head of Carnegie Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University, concluded, however, that the “gains had been restricted by rising heat around the world during the last 20 years” (Hoffman, 2007).

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“At least for wheat, corn and barley, temperature trends in the last few decades have been in the direction of holding yields down,” Field said. “They’re still increasing, but if temperatures hadn’t been warming, they would have been increasing more” (Hoffman, 2007). “I think what we’re seeing is the direct effects of climate change are negative” for some major row crops, said Lobell. “There’s still this big question of what CO2 is doingSo far, technology has kept crop yields growing so that supply keeps pace with soaring demand for food,” Lobell said. “But it’s a race, and I think of climate change as a sort of headwind for the supply increase,” he said, “We’re talking about potentially much slower increases in supply that will eventually start to lose ground to demand. The question is whether they can keep pace” (Hoffman, 2007). WARMING MAY REDUCE RICE YIELDS

Even small temperature increases could be enough to reduce rice yields significantly over the next century. Researchers at the University of Florida tested several varieties of rice, growing them in chambers that simulated various temperature change situations. They found that although the rice plants themselves flourished no matter what the temperature, yields that are edible declined sharply as temperatures increased. Even a modest temperature increase could reduce rice yields by 20 to 40 percent by 2100, the researchers said, while larger increases predicted by more extreme forecasts could cut rice production almost to zero (Fountain, 2000, F-15). In another study, researchers from China, the United States, and the Philippines analyzed weather data from the International Rice Research Institute Farm in Los Banos (near Manila), Philippines, from 1979 to 2003 and compared these records with rice yields at the same location from 1992 to 2003. They found that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures at the location increased by 0.35◦ C and 1.13◦ C respectively between 1979 and 2003; grain yields declined by 10 percent for each 1◦ rise in growing season’s minimum temperatures during the dry cropping season (January through April). “This report,” they wrote in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “[p]rovides direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming” (Peng et al., 2004, 9971). Globally, nighttime temperatures have increased faster than daytime readings because greenhouse gases tend to trap more heat radiating from the ground, reducing cooling (Fountain, 2004, F-1). Kenneth G. Cassman of the University of Nebraska, who participated in this study, said that researchers were working to determine the cause

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of the yield reduction, but they speculated that it was because the hotter nights made the plants work harder just to maintain themselves, diverting energy from growth. “If you think about it, world records for the marathon occur at cooler temperatures because it takes much more energy to maintain yourself when running at high temperatures. A similar phenomenon occurs with plants,” he said (Schmid, 2004). Tim L. Setter, a professor of soil, crop, and atmospheric science at Cornell University, who did not take part in this study, commented that higher nighttime temperatures “could consume carbohydrates in a nonproductive way, and by reducing the reserves of carbohydrates, particularly at time of flowering and early grain filling, would decrease the number of kernels that would be set” (Schmid, 2004). CHANGES FOR PLANTS AND ANIMALS WITH SMALL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS

Even with a global temperature rise of only 0.6◦ C during the twentieth century, a small fraction of the warming expected in years to come, important changes for plants and animals have been noticed around the Earth, according to one of the most detailed studies of climate change. An international team of scientists working across a range of disciplines found “a major imprint on wildlife” during the twentieth century (Connor, 2002, 11). Writing in Nature, Gian-Reto Walther and colleagues said, There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The response of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible. (Walther et al., March 28, 2002, 389)

Walther, an ecologist at the University of Hanover in Germany and lead author of the study, said, “We want to emphasize that climate-change impacts are not something we expect for the future but something that is already happening. We are convinced of that. If you have so many studies from so many regions with so many different species involved and all pointing to the same direction of warmer temperatures, then to me it’s quite convincing” (Connor, 2002, 11). The study included work by British specialists in amphibian breeding cycles and Antarctic ecology,

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German experts on bird migration, and Australian marine biologists studying changes to coral reefs in tropical oceans. Walther continued, “[This is] the first time that researchers from various disciplines have come together to compare their own work. We made comparisons between and across various ecosystems and we compared different species to look for common traits—and they all point to the same direction of warmer temperatures. We know that the global average temperature has increased by 0.6 degrees C. For many people this may sound very minor, but we are quite surprised that this minor change has had so many impacts already on natural ecosystems” (Connor, 2002, 11). All of the scientists found that typical springtime activities, such as arrival and breeding of migrant birds or the first appearance of butterflies and plants, have occurred progressively earlier during the past 40 years (Connor, 2002, 11). Meanwhile, some warm weather species and diseases have extended their ranges. “There is much evidence that a steady rise in annual temperatures has been associated with expanding mosquito-borne disease in the highlands of Asia, East Africa and Latin America,” the scientists said (Connor, 2002, 11). To cite a few examples among many, mosses and other plants have begun to grow in parts of the Antarctic that were previously considered too cold for such life. Many coral reefs around the world have also undergone mass “bleaching” on at least six occasions since 1979, all of which is related to warmer sea temperatures. Changes in wind patterns over the Bering Sea and their interaction with local patterns of ocean circulation have affected the distribution of walleye pollack, an important “forage species” for other fish and sea mammals (Connor, 2002, 11). Changes in ocean circulation around the Antarctic Peninsula have influenced the breeding range of the krill, an important shrimp-like animal at the base of the Antarctic food chain. In Britain, warmer winters have caused newts to breed earlier, bringing them into contact with the eggs and young of the common frog at a point when they are most vulnerable to predation, said Trevor Beebee, professor of molecular biology at the University of Sussex and a coauthor of the study (Connor, 2002, 11). “Newts and other amphibians with a protracted breeding season are responding to climate change whereas frogs and toads which usually breed earlier are not,” Beebee said, “You can relate these changes to temperature changes observed over the same period” (Connor, 2002, 11). Common changes observed by this team of scientists included earlier spring breeding and first singing of birds, arrival of migrating birds, appearance of butterflies, spawning in amphibians, as well as earlier

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shooting and flowering of plants. In general, according to this report, spring activities have occurred progressively earlier since the 1960s, at a rate that is easily observable within a single human lifespan (Walther et al., 2002, 389). SPECIES MOVING TOWARD THE POLES

Other scientific studies indicate that species are generally moving toward the poles—northward in the northern hemisphere and (with a smaller number of examples) southward below the equator. Two studies involving several thousand plant and animal species throughout the world, from plankton to polar bears, provide ample evidence that climate change is reshaping animal and plant habitats at an increasing rate. During the fall of 2007, after the Arctic lost almost one-fourth of its ice cap in one summer, warnings regarding the demise of polar bears became more strident. “Just 10 more years of current global warming pollution trajectories will commit us to enough warming to melt the Arctic and doom the polar bear to extinction,” said Kassie Siegel, director of the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate, Air, and Energy Program. “We urgently need to address global warming, not just for the sake of the polar bear but for the sake of people and wildlife around the world” (Comment Period, 2007). Many studies suggest that habitat change is already well under way. “There is a very strong signal from across all regions of the world that the globe is warming,” said Terry Root of Stanford University’s Center for Environmental Science and Policy, who headed one of the research teams. “Thermometers can tell us that the Earth is warming, but the plants and animals are telling us that global warming is already having a discernible impact. People who don’t believe it should take their heads out of the sand and look around” (Toner, 2003, 1-A). Root and colleagues, in their “meta-analysis” of 143 studies, concluded, More than 80 per cent of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernable in animal and plant populations. The synergism [combination] of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions. (Root et al., 2003, 570)

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Root’s team and another, headed by Camille Parmesan, a biologist at the University of Texas, Austin, examined hundreds of studies describing more than 2,000 plants and animals—from shrimp, crabs, and barnacles off the Pacific coast of California to cardinals that nest in Wisconsin—to see whether they could spot the “fingerprint” of changing global temperatures (Toner, 2003, 1-A). Parmesan and Gary Yohe calculated that range shifts toward the poles had averaged 6.1 kilometers per decade, with an advance in the beginning of spring by 2.3 days per decade (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003, 37). According to Parmesan and Yohe’s analysis, some birds and butterflies had shifted as many as 600 miles northward. Grasses, trees, and other species that lack mobility have moved shorter distances. In a finding that resembled other studies, they found that springtime behavior was occurring earlier, in this case by more than two days per decade. A study of more than 21,000 swallow nests in North America, for example, indicated that the species was laying its eggs nine days earlier in the year 2000 than in 1960 (Toner, 2003, 1-A). In mountains, various species responded to warming by moving up in elevation, seeking habitats that were similar to areas they had formerly occupied at lower altitude. In some areas, such the Great Smoky Mountains, the mountain peaks had become shrinking “islands” for cool weather species (Toner, 2003, 1-A). The Root and Parmesan studies both indicated that the largest changes in temperature as well as habitat movement were taking place in the polar regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest. “The most remarkable thing is that we have seen so many changes in so many parts of the world from a relatively small increase in temperature,” Root told Mike Toner of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “When you consider that some people are predicting warming that would be 10 times greater by the end of this century, it’s spooky to think about what the consequences might be” (Toner, 2003, 1-A).

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Alligators Moving Northward Along the Mississippi River In mid-May 2006, alligators were sighted in the backwaters of the Mississippi River as far north as Memphis, Tennessee. “It’s possible that alligators have had a northern range expansion due to the mild winters we’ve had in the past 10 years,” wildlife agent Gary Cook said (Gators Spotted, 2006). The Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency received reports of alligator sightings

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

An alligator ( Jeff Dixon) on McKellar Lake, a backwater of the Mississippi just south of Memphis, and at T.O. Fuller State Park, north of the city. Up to five alligators may have been seen, including one said to be close to 7 feet long that was reportedly spotted on a bank beside McKellar Lake. “It was just laying out in the sun,” said Kay Vescovi, a chemical plant manager at a nearby industrial park, “Nobody was concerned, just kind of shocked that they’re this far north” (Gators Spotted, 2006). Stan Trauth, a zoology professor at Arkansas State University, said alligators spotted in the Memphis region might be former pets that were released into the wilds. “Moving north is not what they would want. They would want to stay in the more moderate climate,” Trauth said. Trauth, who has tracked alligators released in Arkansas by wildlife agents, said the region is along the northern edge of animals’ survival range. “They’re reaching their physiological tolerance in the winter in this area,” he said (Gators Spotted, 2006).

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Armadillos Spreading Northward The armadillo (Spanish for “little armored thing”), a subtropical animal with a hard shell, can be used as an indicator of climate change. The ninebanded armadillo (the only species in the United States) has migrated northward from South America over a very long period of time. The first nine-banded armadillo was sighted in the United States in 1849, a migrant from Mexico into Texas, where they were sighted in the 1850s. A century ago, the armadillo’s range was restricted largely to Mexico, southern Texas, and parts of deserts in Arizona and New Mexico. By late in the twentieth century, armadillos were being sighted in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia. Armadillos’ range is restricted by temperature because they have little body fat and eat insects and neither hibernate nor store food. They can

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A nine-banded armadillo ( Jeff Dixon) survive freezes in burrows or under buildings, however. They live in small colonies and give birth in identical quadruplets (Crable, 2005, C-5). The armadillo has been chosen as Texas’ official state small mammal. During the Great Depression, they were known as “Hoover Hogs” by downon-their luck Americans who had to eat them instead of the “chicken in every pot” Herbert Hoover had promised as president (Suhr, 2006). The Houston Chronicle remarked in 2006 that the armadillo “has become a Yankee.” “During periods of warm winters, they’ll disperse north during the summers and won’t die off in the winter, so the next summer, they’ll disperse a little further,” said Duane Schlitter, program leader for nongame species and rare and endangered species at the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (Kever, 2006, 1). Armadillos’ accustomed range expanded rapidly as temperatures warmed after 1990, as motorists reported colliding with the animals (which seem to have very little street sense) as far north as southern North Carolina, Kentucky, Illinois, and near Lincoln, Nebraska, where one was reported during August 2005, licking up bugs on U.S. Route 50. “Over the last seven or eight years, we’ve been getting more regular reports of armadillos,” said Mike Fritz, a natural heritage zoologist with the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission (Laukaitis, 2005, A-1). The nine-banded armadillo is expanding its range 10 times faster than the average rate expected for a mammal, according to Dr. Joshua Nixon, a Michigan State researcher who runs a Web site, “Armadillo Online!” (www.msu.edu/∼nixonjos/armadillo). Contrary to popular assumptions, the nine-banded armadillo cannot roll into a ball when threatened, but they are good swimmers, able to ford rivers by puffing air into their lungs and forging ahead, dog-paddle style. They have been discovered riding hobo-style on freight trains. Jackson County animal control chief Lloyd Nelson said in 2006 that he had logged 13 sightings since 2003 in his Southern Illinois county alone. “All the evidence, the sightings and the number of road kills would indicate

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

that their numbers are increasing,” said Clay Nielsen, a wildlife ecologist at Southern Illinois University in Carbondale. In Illinois in recent years, “there’s been quite a spurt in sightings” of the nocturnal animal. A few have been sighted in the southern suburbs of Chicago. Some may be released by people who tired of having them as pets, but others seem to have migrated northward themselves (Suhr, 2006).

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Major-league Baseball Bats May Be Victims of Warming The ash tree, traditional source of major-league baseball bats, is being killed by a beetle species, the emerald ash borer, which may be encouraged by warming temperatures. Owners of bat factories in the ash country of Northwestern Pennsylvania have made emergency plans they will call upon if the white ash tree, source of the best wood, is, as the plan says, “compromised.” Seeds of the same tree are being collected in Michigan in case natural species are endangered. Asian wasps were imported and set loose in ash forests during 2007 to attack the shiny-green emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire), itself an Asian immigrant, which has killed upwards of 25 million ash trees in Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Maryland after it was first found near Detroit in 2002 (Davey, 2007). By late-June 2007, the ash borer was invading the choice baseball bat ash groves in Pennsylvania, near the border with New York State. Warming temperatures may be partially to blame for the ash borer’s expansion because a longer growing season is causing the white ash’s wood to become softer, making it an easier prey for the beetles. Changes in the wood’s density also make it less suitable for baseball bats. Warmer weather may also speed up the reproductive cycle of the beetle “We’re watching all this very closely,” said Brian Boltz, the general manager of the Larimer & Norton Company, whose Russell mill each day saws, grades, and dries scores of billets destined to become Louisville Slugger bats. “Maybe it means more maple bats. Or it may be a matter of using a different species for our bats altogether” (Davey, 2007). Barry Bonds of the San Francisco Giants has been using maple bats. The major leagues also could turn to aluminum bats, which are used in college-level and junior-league baseball. As with most aspects of global warming, this one is open to debate. Dan Herms, an associate professor of entomology at Ohio State University, denies a link between the ash borer and climate change because the beetles survive in a wide range of temperatures in Asia (Davey, 2007).

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Decline of the Cuckoo in England The cuckoo, England’s herald of spring, a bird well known for the male’s distinctive call (as well as for laying its eggs in nests built by other birds) is disappearing from the British countryside. Cuckoo numbers have declined by 30 percent during the past 30 years in urban areas, while in woodland areas cuckoos have declined by as much as 60 percent. The cuckoo migrates to all parts of the country from winter feeding grounds in sub-Saharan Africa. David Marley of the Woodland Trust said that the cuckoo’s preferred woodland habitat was particularly vulnerable to global warming, which could be affecting its breeding season and food supplies (Smith, 2002). “The cuckoo is one of the most amazing birds you can come across in Britain, but it is declining by a staggering amount and we are getting reports from across the country that people just aren’t hearing it any more,” Marley said. Other theories for the 30-year slump in Cuckoo populations include habitat loss and the spread of intensive farming practices. At its wintering places in Africa, Cuckoos may also be suffering from indiscriminate use of agricultural chemicals as well as widespread drought (Smith, 2002). The British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) believes that cuckoos in Britain number between 12,000 and 24,000 pairs, down from 17,500 to 35,000 in 1970. The Woodland Trust has launched a study that will record cuckoo sightings and build up data that will document the changing ecology that may help to explain why cuckoos are in sharp decline. Reports will be added to data collected since 1726 to help to monitor the impact of climate change. Volunteers will watch out for cuckoos, as well as other wildlife, including ladybirds, bumblebees, and swallows (Smith, 2002). While some birds were declining in England as weather warmed, others were flourishing. For example, the number of wild parrots was rising rapidly by 2004, with 100,000 expected by the end of the decade. The parrots, which are large and aggressive birds, were competing with domestic species, such as starlings, jackdaws, and small owls, for food and territory (Prigg, 2004, A-9).

Ss WARMING, DEFORESTATION, AND THE DEVASTATION OF MOUNTAIN HABITATS

Tropical mountain forests depend on predictable, frequent, and prolonged moisture-bearing clouds. Clearing upwind lowland forests alters surface energy budgets in ways that influence dry season cloud fields (Lawton et al. 2001, 584). Cloud forests form where mountains force trade winds to rise above condensation level, the point where cloud form as moisture condenses. “We all thought we were doing a great job of protecting mountain forests [in Costa Rica],” said Robert O. Lawton,

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

a tropical forest ecologist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Alabama. “Now we’re seeing that deforestation outside our mountain range, out of our control, can have a big impact” (Yoon, 2001, F-5). The clearing of forests, sometimes many miles from the mountains, changes this pattern, often raising the elevation at which clouds form. Lawton and colleagues used LANDSAT and Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite images to measure such changes in the Monteverde cloud forests of Costa Rica. They found that their “simulations suggest that conversion of forest to pasture has a significant impact on cloud formation” (Lawton et al., 2001, 586). Patterns found in Costa Rica resemble those in other tropical areas, including parts of the Amazon Valley. “These results suggest that current trends in tropical land use will force cloud forests upward, and they will thus decrease in area and become increasingly fragmented—and in many low mountains may disappear altogether” (Lawton, et al., 2001, 587). Deforestation’s effects probably extend further than most observers have believed. “Mountain forests . . . may be affected by what’s happening some distance away,” said Lawton. Each year about 81,000 square miles of tropical forests are cleared, Hartshorn said (Polakovic, 2001, A-1). Thus, the weather in the lush cloud forests of Costa Rica is changing because of land use changes, including deforestation, many miles away. As trees on Costa Rica’s coastal plains are removed and replaced by farms, roads and settlements, less moisture evaporates from soil and plants, in turn reducing clouds around forested peaks 65 miles away. At risk is the Monteverde Cloud Forest Reserve, an ecosystem atop a Central American mountain spine, “a realm of moss and mist, the woodland in the clouds—a type of rain forest—[that] is home to more than 800 species of orchids and birds, as well as jaguar, ocelot and the Resplendent Quetzal, a plumed bird sacred to the Mayans.” The same area also is a watershed that supplies farms, towns, and hydropower plants in the lowlands (Polakovic, 2001, A-1). These findings are consistent with similar localized weather changes observed in the deforested parts of the Amazon basin. Scientists say that cloud forests in Madagascar, the Andes, and New Guinea are also at risk. According to this study, “[t]hese results suggest that current trends in tropical land use will force cloud forests upward and they will thus decrease in area and become increasingly fragmented and in many low mountains may disappear altogether,” the scientists concluded (Polakovic, 2001, A-1). “It’s incredibly ominous that over such a distance deforestation can alter clouds in mountains. This is a very serious concern,” said Gary S. Hartshorn, president of the Organization for Tropical

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Studies, a consortium of rain forest researchers at Duke University. “This is confirmation of what we have predicted for a long time,” said Stanford University ecologist Gretchen Daily. “The implications are very serious for the tropics and other parts of the world” (Polakovic, 2001, A-1). FROGS THREATENED WORLDWIDE

In 2004, the first worldwide survey of 5,743 amphibians species (frogs, toads, and salamanders) indicated that one in every three species was in danger of extinction, many of them likely victims of an infectious fungus possibly caused by drought or global warming (Stokstad, 2004, 391). Findings combined efforts by more than 500 researchers from more than 60 countries. “The fact that one-third of amphibians are in a precipitous decline tells us that we are rapidly moving toward a potentially epidemic number of extinctions,” said Achim Steiner, director-general of The World Conservation Union based in Geneva (Seabrook, 2004, 1-C.). “Amphibians are one of nature’s best indicators of the overall health of our environment,” said Whitfield Gibbons, a herpetologist at the University of Georgia’s Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (Seabrook, 2004, 1-C.; Stokstad, 2004, 391). Amphibians are more threatened and are declining more rapidly than birds or mammals. “The lack of conservation remedies for these poorly understood declines means that hundreds of amphibians species now face extinction,” wrote the scientists who conducted the worldwide survey (Stuart et al., 2004, 1783–1786). In North and South America, the Caribbean, and Australia, a major culprit appears to be the highly infectious fungal disease, chytridiomycosis. New research shows that prolonged drought may cause outbreaks of the disease in some regions, although some scientists attribute the disease spread to global warming. Other threats include loss of habitat, acid rain, pesticides and herbicides, fertilizers, consumer demand for frog legs, and a depletion of the ozone layer that leaves the frogs’ skin exposed to radiation (Seabrook, 2004, 1-C). Gibbons said that the loss of wetlands and other habitat to development, agriculture and other reasons might be the leading cause of amphibian declines in Georgia. Pollution might also be playing a significant role, he said. “It’s hard to find a pristine stream anymore,” he said (Seabrook, 2004, 1-C). WARMING AND THE DECLINE OF OREGON’S WESTERN TOAD

Global warming could be playing a role in the decline of the western toad in Oregon, according to a report that was among the first to link climatic change with amphibian die-offs in North America (Pounds,

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

2001, 639). The wave of toad population declines could be a warning of ecological chain reactions that may be triggered by warming. J. Alan Pounds, who has researched the decline of the golden toad in Costa Rica from his post with the Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve and Tropical Science Center in Costa Rica, described the situation in Oregon: “In the crystal-clear waters surrounded by snow-capped peaks in the Cascade range, the jet-black [western toad] embryos are suffering devastating mortality. They develop normally for a few days, then turn white and die by the hundreds of thousands” (Pounds, 2001, 639). Research by Joseph M. Kiesecker of Pennsylvania State University and colleagues indicates that the toads’ fatal infection results from a complex sequence of events provoked by warming temperatures. Kiesecker and colleagues wrote that “[e]levated sea-surface temperatures in this region [the western United States] since the mid-1970s, which have affected the climate over much of the world, could be the precursor for pathogen-mediated amphibian declines in many regions” (Kiesecker et al., 2001, 681). “Reductions in water depth due to altered precipitation patterns expose the embryos to damaging ultraviolet b (UV-B) radiation, thereby opening the door to lethal infection by a fungus, Saprolegnia ferax” (Pounds, 2001, 639). Depth of water influences the amount of UVB radiation that reaches the toads’ eggs; less water depth is related to the El Nino/La Nina cycle, which, Kiesecker and colleagues theorize, is related to climate change. Similar patterns have been detected in cases of mass frog and toad mortality from other parts of the world. In some areas, fungus-borne diseases afflict lizards as well as frogs and toads (Pounds, 2001, 639– 640). Given what Kiesecker and others have found, Pounds believes that “[t]here is clearly a need for a rapid transition to cleaner energy sources if we are to avoid staggering losses of biodiversity” (Pounds, 2001, 640). Kiesecker’s results support those of Pounds who, in 1999, reported that warmer and drier periods in the cloud forest atop the Continental Divide at Monteverde were tied to El Nino events and had caused massive population reductions in more than 20 frog species, including the disappearance of the golden toad (Souder, 2001). SEABIRDS STARVE AS WATERS WARM

The survival of seabirds on New Zealand’s sub-Antarctic islands is related to supplies of krill that are declining as waters warm. Populations of rockhopper penguins, a species with brilliant yellow eyebrows which nests on the rocks of windblown Campbell Island, have declined by more than 95 percent since the 1940s. A breed of albatross called gray-headed

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mollymawks has declined by 84 percent. Muttonbirds are down by a third and elephant seals by about half, according to a report in the New Zealand Herald (Collins, 2002). A study by New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWAR) said that the collapse of the rockhopper penguin population was due to the birds’ inability to find enough food in a lessproductive marine ecosystem. “The cause is reduced productivity of the ocean where they are feeding,” said NIWAR scientist Paul Sagar, “They eat mainly krill but they do also eat small fish and squid” (Collins, 2002). This research measured the amount of food available to the penguins in the sea during the preceding 120 years by analyzing feathers from rockhoppers alive today compared with those of 45 museum specimens from the Antipodes and Campbell Island. Results indicated declining numbers of phytoplankton in the rockhoppers’ diet (Collins, 2002). Sagar said that further research was required to learn why phytoplankton populations have declined; some scientists assert that the declining populations result from water that has become too warm for a species that is adapted to the sub-Antarctic. “It could be a long-run natural cycle, with the possibility that polar water coming up from the south may not be coming as far north as it used to,” Sagar said, “It could be that the position of the currents has changed so the productive areas have moved further south or north, away from where the penguins are feeding. If it’s happening over such a long time, I wouldn’t put it down specifically to global warming” (Collins, 2002). He said that the study used the rockhoppers as an “indicator species,” because it was likely that the same changes in climate and phytoplankton populations were also causing decline in other birds’ populations. Another study, at New Zealand’s Otago University, indicated that muttonbird numbers had dropped by a third on one of their major breeding islands. Conservation Department scientist Peter Moore, who studied the rockhoppers on Campbell Island in 1996, said that their numbers declined from 1.6 million breeding pairs in 1942 to 103,000 pairs in 1985 and had continued to fall at a similar rate since (Collins, 2002). Sagar said there was evidence that some of the adult birds were feeding better quality food to their chicks, while their own diet declined, but Moore said the orphaned chicks often died as well. During 1990 many surviving chicks from a yellow-eyed penguin colony were fed and reared by humans after their parents died. But after the chicks were released, 99 percent of them disappeared (Collins, 2002). Seabird population declines have spanned the world, for similar reasons. In Scotland, for example, guillemots, arctic terns, kittiwakes, and

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

other seabird colonies on the Shetland and Orkney Islands in 2004 experienced one of their worst breeding seasons in memory. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) observed very few chicks on the breeding cliff ledges. Sandeels, the small fish on which the birds feed, have migrated northward, probably because of warming waters, placing the birds’ traditional food supply largely out of reach, so they have had difficulty reproducing and feeding their young. BIRD EXTINCTIONS: BALTIMORE WITHOUT ORIOLES

Maryland’s Baltimore orioles, which have been declining due to habitat loss for many years, could vanish altogether late in the twenty-first century due to changes in migration patterns strongly influenced by a warming climate. A study by the National Wildlife Federation and the American Bird Conservancy “suggests that the effects of global warming may be robbing Maryland and a half-dozen other states of an important piece of their heritage by hastening the departure of their state birds” (Pianin, 2002, A-3). The report said that Earth’s rising temperature “is already shifting songbird ranges, altering migration behavior and perhaps diminishing some species’ ability to survive” (Pianin, 2002, A-3). Iowa and Washington State may lose the American goldfinch, as New Hampshire’s purple finch could become a historical relic. California could lose the California quails, Massachusetts’ black-capped chickadee may vanish, and Georgia could lose its brown thrasher (Pianin, 2002, A-3). The life cycle of the oriole and other birds is tied closely to weather patterns that are changing with general warming. Seasonal changes in weather patterns tell the birds when they should begin their long flights southward in the fall and back again in the spring. Temperature and precipitation also influence the timing and availability of flowers, seeds, and other food sources for the birds when they reach their destinations (Pianin, 2002, A-3). Peter Schultz, a global warming expert with The National Research Council, a nonprofit organization, cautioned that long-term forecasts of disruptions in bird migration patterns are difficult. “I would be surprised if the distribution of state birds is not changed down the road,” he said, “But predicting precisely where they’ll be 50 years from now is very difficult, if not impossible, with the current state of knowledge” (Pianin, 2002, A-3). Baltimore orioles (Icterus galbula) were once so numerous that the naturalist painter John J. Audubon wrote about the delight of hearing “the melody resulting from thousands of musical voices that come from

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some neighboring tree” (Pianin, 2002, A-3). The bird, a Maryland icon whose name was adopted by Baltimore’s major-league baseball team, was officially designated the state bird in 1947. Local legend maintains that George Calvert, the first baron of Baltimore, liked the oriole’s brightorange plumage so much that he adopted its colors for his coat of arms. Global warming is not the only danger to the oriole and other wellknown birds. Its decline results also from diminishing breeding habitat and forests in North America (where orioles spend summers) and in Central and South America, where they fly for the winter. “Climate change on top of fragmented habitat is the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Patricia Glick, an expert on climate change with the National Wildlife Federation (Pianin, 2002, A-3).

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Warmth Changes the Sex Ratio of Loggerhead Sea Turtles

A loggerhead sea turtle ( Jeff Dixon) As many as 85 percent of loggerhead sea turtle hatchlings living on beaches in the southern United States are now female, a sex ratio caused by a warming habitat that threatens this endangered species. A lack of males may cause the species to become extinct (Lazaroff, 2002). “These turtles have very small gonads at this age and are difficult to identify,” said Jeanette Wyneken, an assistant professor of biological sciences at Florida Atlantic University, who is an expert on sea turtle anatomy and turtle conservation (Lazaroff, 2002). According to a report by the Environment News Service,

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

“The skewed sex ratios can arise because the temperature of the sand surrounding a turtle nest plays a strong role in determining the sex of turtles, with warmer temperatures favoring females” (Lazaroff, 2002). Given a few more degrees of warming, all the turtles’ offspring will be female, and the loggerheads will go extinct.

Ss BARK BEETLES SPREAD ACROSS U.S. WEST

Nine years of intense drought and rising temperatures by 2007 had created perfect conditions for bark beetle infestations across the U.S. West. By the fall of 2002, large areas of evergreen forests in Western Montana and the Idaho Panhandle, as well as parts of California, Colorado, and Utah had fallen victim to unusually large infestations of bark beetles, including the Douglas fir bark beetle, spruce beetle, and mountain pine beetle. The infestations were being encouraged by several factors: a warming trend, which allows the beetles to multiply more quickly and reach higher altitudes; drought, which deprives trees of sap they would usually use to keep the beetles under control; and years of fire suppression, which increased the amount of elderly wood susceptible to attack. Beetles, attacking in “epic proportions,” had killed many stands of trees within a few weeks (Stark, 2002, B-1). According to an observer, “The vast tracts of Douglas fir that stood green and venerable for generations [east of Yellowstone National Park] are peppered and painted with swaths of rusty red and gray. For Douglas fir, those are the colors of death” (Stark, 2002, B-1). Tens of millions of trees across the West have been killed at a rate never seen before. Warmer temperatures accelerate the beetles’ reproduction cycle, killing trees more quickly. Some types of beetles that used to breed two generations a year are now reproducing three times. “This is all due to temperature,” said Barbara Bentz, a research entomologist with the U.S. Forest Service who is studying bark beetles. “Two or three degrees is enough to do it” (Wagner, 2004). Outside Cody, Wyoming, an entire forest has been killed by the drought and beetles. “It used to be a nice spruce forest,” said Kurt Allen, a Forest Service entomologist. “It’s gone now. You’re not going to get those conditions back for 200 or 300 years. We’re really not going to have what a lot of people would consider a forest” (Wagner, 2004). Bill McEwen wrote in a letter to The New York Times, “I reside in the semi-arid West, where scientists are just beginning to understand the enormous synergistic [combination] impact of global warming, atmospheric drying (drought), and the explosion in insect populations that

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is killing many of our forests. . . . On a recent vacation to the Northwest, I drove through Sun Valley, Idaho. Around Sun Valley and the nearby Salmon River Valley, entire mountainsides of forest are now being destroyed by out-of-control bark beetle infestations” (McEwen, 2004, A-16). AMAZON VALLEY: DROUGHT, DEFORESTATION, AND WARMING

During 2005 a severe drought spread through the Amazon Valley at the same time that satellite surveys indicated that damage from logging in the same area had been 60 to 120 percent more than previously reported. “We think this [additional logging] adds 25 percent more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere” from the Amazon than previously estimated, said Michael Keller, an ecologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Forest Service and coauthor of an Amazon logging inventory published in Science (Asner et al., 2005, 480–481; Naik and Samor, 2005, A-12). This new survey differed from others that measured only the clearcutting of large forest areas. The study by Asner and colleagues included these measures of deforestation and added trees cut selectively, while much of surrounding forest was left standing in five Brazilian states (Mato Grosso, Para, Rondonia, Roraima, and Acre) which account for more than 90 percent of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (Asner et al., 2005, 480). In addition, the Amazon Valley’s worst drought in about 40 years was causing several tributaries to evaporate, probably contributing even more carbon dioxide via wildfires. In some areas of the Amazon Valley, the drought was the worst since record keeping began a century ago. Some scientists asserted that the drought was most likely a result, at least partially, of a rise in water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that also played a role in spawning Hurricane Katrina and other devastating storms during the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. If global warming is involved, this drought may only be an early indication of a new weather regime in the Amazon Valley, which holds nearly a quarter of the world’s freshwater (Giles, 2006, 726). The Amazon Valley could be caught in a double vise as the world warms, as rising Atlantic Ocean temperatures combine with El Nino events to provoke more frequent droughts. El Nino events tend to reverse the air circulation over the Amazon from east-west to west-east, setting up drying, downslope winds. POISON IVY: OUR ITCHY FUTURE

Poison Ivy loves global warming. As rising levels of carbon dioxide enhance growth of the plants, their oil (which produces the irritating

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

itch) becomes more potent. Ledwis Ziska, a plant physiologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Beltsville, Maryland, tested the ivy at 300 ppm carbon dioxide (a level common in the 1950s) and at 400 ppm, a little higher than the 2007 level of 383. After eight months, leaf size, stem length, weight, and oil content were 50 to 75 percent higher for plants raised at the higher level (Parker-Pope, 2007, D-1). At Duke University, researchers studied poison ivy growth under carbon dioxide levels matching the forecast for the middle of this century. Over five growing seasons, plants grown under increased carbon dioxide weighed roughly 60 percent more than control plants and made their oil (urushiol) significantly more abundant and potent, according to Jacqueline E. Moohan, an assistant professor at the University of Georgia who led the study. Plants grown in elevated amounts of CO2 produced more of the unsaturated version of urushiol than control plants. And the unsaturated form is more allergenic (Fountain, 2006). PALMS IN SOUTHERN SWITZERLAND

Gian-Reto Walther and his colleagues have tracked the expansion of Trachycarpus fortunei, the windmill palm, (similar to the palmetto in the United States), into southern Switzerland, following rising minimum

A windmill palm ( Jeff Dixon)

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winter temperatures and a lengthening growing season. Windmill palms have been reproducing naturally in the foothills of the southern Alps. They have also been observed spreading into gardens and parks as far north as southern costal England, Brittany (in France), the Netherlands, and coastal southwestern British Columbia, all areas where warmer nights have extended the average annual growing season to well over 300 days many years (Walther et al., 2007). The palms of Switzerland are being observed about 300 kilometers (more than 200 miles) outside their historical range. Scientists conclude that the spread of these palms is a “significant global bio-indicator across continents for present-day climate change and the projected global warming of the near future” (Walther et al., 2007). EFFECTS ON HUMAN HEALTH

When climate change scientists and diplomats met in Buenos Aires during 1998, they were greeted by the news that mosquitoes carrying dengue fever had invaded more than a third of the homes in Argentina’s most populous province, with 14 million people. The Aedes aegypti mosquito appeared in Argentina during 1986; within 12 years, it was found in 36 percent of homes in Buenos Aires province, according to Dr. Alfredo Seijo of the Hospital Munoz. “Aedes aegypti now exists from the south of the United States to Buenos Aires province and this is obviously due to climatic changes which have taken place in Latin America over the past few years,” Seijo told a news conference organized by the World Wildlife Fund at the United Nations climate talks in Argentina (Webb, 1998). Dengue fever, for which no vaccine exists, had been nearly eradicated from North and South America by the 1970s. During the 1980s, however, the disease increased dramatically in South America, infecting more than 300,000 people by 1995. Also during 1995, Peru and the Amazon Valley were especially hard hit by the area’s largest epidemic of yellow fever since 1950, which is carried by the same mosquito that transmits dengue fever. The annual world incidence of dengue fever, which averaged about 100,000 cases between 1981 and 1985, averaged 450,000 cases a year between 1986 and 1990 (Gelbspan, 1997, 149). Dengue fever is one of a number of mosquito-borne diseases that have been increasing in coverage over many areas of the Earth—climbing altitude in the tropics and rising in latitude in temperate zones—as global temperatures have warmed during the last quarter of the twentieth century. Rising temperatures and humidity increase the range of many illnesses spread by insects, including mosquitoes, warm weather insects

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

which die at temperatures below a range of 50◦ F to 61◦ F, depending on species. Dengue, a common disease in tropical regions, is a prolonged, flu-like viral infection that can cause internal bleeding, fever, and sometimes death. Dengue, which is sometimes called “breakbone fever,” may be accompanied by headache, rash, and severe joint pain. The World Health Organization lists dengue fever as the tenth deadliest disease worldwide. During 1995, an explosion of termites, mosquitoes, and cockroaches hit New Orleans, following an unprecedented five years without a killing frost. “Termites are everywhere. The city is totally, completely, inundated with them,” said Ed Bordees, a New Orleans health official, adding, “The number of mosquitoes laying eggs has increased tenfold” (Gelbspan, 1997, 15). The situation in New Orleans was aggravated not only by unusual warmth, but also by above-average rainfall totaling about 80 inches the previous year. Some of the 200-year-old oaks along New Orleans’ St. Charles Avenue were eaten alive from the inside by billions of tiny, blind, Formosan termites. The same year, dengue fever spread from Mexico across the border into Texas for the first time since records have been kept. Dengue fever, like malaria, is carried by a mosquito with a range that is defined by temperature. At the same time, Colombia was experiencing plagues of mosquitoes and outbreaks of the diseases they carry, including dengue fever and encephalitis, triggered by a record heat wave followed by heavy rains. Mild winters with a lack of freezing conditions allow many diseasecarrying insects to expand their ranges. “Indeed,” commented Paul Epstein of Harvard Medical School’s Center for Health and the Global Environment, “[f]ossil records indicate that when changes in climate occur, insects shift their range far more rapidly than do grasses, shrubs, and forests, and move to more favorable latitudes and elevations hundreds of years before larger animals do. ‘Beetles,’ concluded one climatologist, ‘are better paleo-thermometers than [polar] bears’” (Epstein, 1998). GLOBAL WARMING AND THE SPREAD OF DISEASES

John T. Houghton, author of Global Warming: The Complete Briefing (1997), believes that global warming will accelerate the spread of many diseases from the tropics to the middle latitudes. Mosquito-borne malaria (which already kills more than a million people a year in the tropics) could increase its present range, Houghton warned. “Other diseases which are likely to spread for the same reason are yellow fever, dengue fever, and . . . viral encephalitis,” he wrote (Houghton, 1997, 132). After

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1980, small outbreaks of locally transmitted malaria occurred in Texas, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and California, usually during hot, wet spells. Worldwide, according to Epstein, between 1.5 and 3 million die of malaria each year, mostly children. Mosquitoes and parasites that carry the disease have evolved immunities to many drugs. According to Epstein, “If tropical weather is expanding it means that tropical diseases will expand. We’re seeing malaria in Houston, Texas” (Glick, 1998). Epstein suggested that a resurgence of infectious disease might be a result of global warming. Warming may appear beneficial at first, Epstein said. Initially, some plants benefit from additional warmth and moisture, an earlier spring, and more carbon dioxide and nitrogen in the air. “But,” he cautioned, “[w]arming and increased CO2 can also stimulate microbes and their carriers” (Epstein, 1998). Since 1976, Epstein reported, thirty diseases have emerged which are new to medicine. Old ones, such as drug-resistant tuberculosis, have been given new life by new diseases (such as HIV/AIDS) that compromise the human immune system. By 1998, tuberculosis was claiming three million lives annually around the world. “Malaria, dengue, yellow fever, cholera, and a number of rodent-borne viruses are also appearing with increased frequency,” Epstein reported (Epstein, 1998). During 1995, mortality from infectious diseases attributed to causes other than HIV/AIDS rose 22 percent above the levels of 15 years before in the United States. Adding deaths brought about by HIV/AIDS, deaths from infectious diseases have risen 58 percent in 15 years (Epstein, 1998). The IPCC included a chapter on public health in an update of its 1990 assessment which concluded, “[C]limate change is likely to have wideranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life” (Taubes, 1997). Andrew Haines asserted, in Jeremy Leggett’s Global Warming: The Greenpeace Report (1990), Although winter bronchitis and pneumonia may be reduced [by global warming], it is quite likely that hay fever and perhaps asthma could increase. A combination of increases in temperature with increasing levels of tropospheric ozone could have clinically important effects, particularly in patients with asthma and chronic obstructive airways disease. (Haines, 1990, 154)

Epstein identified three tendencies in global climate change and related each to an environment that encourages infectious diseases. The three indicators are

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

(1) Increased air temperatures at high altitudes in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) A rise in minimum (usually nighttime) temperatures that is greater than the rise in maximum (daytime) readings; (3) An increase in extreme weather events, such as droughts and sudden heavy rains (Epstein, 1998).

“There is growing evidence for all three of these tell-tale ‘fingerprints’ of enhanced greenhouse warming,” he said (Epstein, 1998). A Sierra Club study indicated that a lengthy El Nino event during the middle 1990s provided an indication of how sensitive some diseases can be to changes in climate. This study cited evidence that warming waters in the Pacific Ocean contributed to a severe outbreak of cholera which led to thousands of deaths in Latin American countries during the 1990s. According to health experts quoted by the Sierra Club study, “[t]he current outbreak [of dengue fever], with its proximity to Texas, is at least a reminder of the risks that a warming climate might pose” (Sierra, 1999). The Sierra Club study concluded, “While it is difficult to prove that any particular outbreak was caused or exacerbated by global warming, such incidents provide a hint of what might occur as global warming escalates” (Sierra, 1999). Willem Martens et al., writing in Climatic Change, attempted to sketch how a warmer, wetter climate would affect transmission of three diseases: malaria, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever. Martens and colleagues forecast that the size of areas affected by these diseases would expand with global warming. The diseases will expand north and south, as well as into higher mountains in the tropics. Martens and his colleagues expected that “[t]he increase in epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12 to 27 per cent and 31 to 47 per cent respectively” (Martens et al., 1997, 145). In contrast, they forecast that the transmission potential of schistosomiasis might decrease 11 to 17 percent. MALARIA IN A WARMER WORLD

In the tropics, elevation has long been used to shield human populations from diseases that are widespread in the lowlands. With global warming, mosquito-borne diseases have been reaching higher altitudes, affecting peoples with little or no immunity. According to Pim Martens, “[a] minor temperature rise will be sufficient to turn the populated African highlands into an area that is suitable for the malaria mosquito and parasite” (Martens, 1997, 537).

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The malarial mosquito ( Jeff Dixon)

During 1997, malaria ravaged large areas of Papua New Guinea at an elevation of 2,100 meters, notably higher than the 1,200 to 2,000 meters that had heretofore provided a barrier to the disease in different parts of central and southern Africa. In northwestern Pakistan, according to Martens, a rise of about half a degree Celsius in the mean temperature was a factor in a rising incidence of malaria there from a few hundred cases a year in the early 1980s to 25,000 in 1990 (Martens, 1999, 537). While most strains of malaria could be controlled, drug-resistant strains were proliferating in the late twentieth century. Writing in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (March, 1998), Epstein and seven coauthors described the spread of malaria and dengue fever to higher altitudes in tropical areas of the Earth because of warmer temperatures. Rising winter temperatures have also allowed disease-bearing insects to survive in areas previously closed to them. According to Epstein, frequent flooding which is associated with warmer temperatures also promotes the growth of fungus and provides excellent breeding grounds for large numbers of mosquitoes. The flooding caused by Hurricane Floyd and other storms in North Carolina during 1999 are cited by some as a real-world example of global warming promoting conditions ideal for the spread of diseases imported from the tropics (Epstein et al., 1998). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s projections for human health, a rise in average global temperatures of 3◦ C to 5◦ C by 2100 could lead to 50 to 80 million additional cases of malaria a year worldwide, “primarily in tropical, subtropical and less well-protected temperate-zone populations” (IPCC, 1995). Italy

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experienced a brief outbreak of malaria during 1997. Researchers at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research expect the same disease to reach the Baltic states by 2050. In parts of the world where malaria is now unknown most people have no immunity (Brown, 1999). The World Health Organization projected that warmer weather would cause tens of millions of additional cases of malaria and other infectious diseases. The Dutch health ministry anticipates that more than a million people may die annually as a result of the impact of global warming on malaria transmission in North America and Northern Europe (Epstein, 1999, 7). Malaria could return to Britain, scientists at the University of Durham warned as they announced a plan to produce a “risk map” showing which areas were most likely to suffer an outbreak (Connor, 2001, 14). With millions of tourists visiting malaria-infested regions of the world, the risk of the disease making a comeback was further increased by global warming, which expanded mosquito habitat in the United Kingdom, said Rob Hutchinson, an entomologist at the university, at the annual meeting of The Royal Entomological Society in Aberdeen. He said that of the 25 million overseas visitors who came to Britain in 1999, about 260,000 came from Turkey and the countries of the former Soviet Union, where vivax malaria was endemic and health care was poor (Connor, 2001, 14). DEATHS FROM HEAT WAVES

Historically, heat stress has been the foremost weather-related cause of death in the United States. During the second half of the twentieth century, however, even as temperatures rose, the rate of heat-related deaths declined dramatically, due to increased use of air-conditioning, better medical care, and increased public awareness of heat stress’s effects. Robert Davis, associate professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, and colleagues studied heat-related mortality (death rates) in 28 major U.S. cities from 1964 though 1998. He found that the heat-related death rate, 41 per million people a year in the 1960s and 1970s, declined to 10.4 per million during the 1990s (Davis et al., 2003). Cities tend to emit and absorb heat more quickly than surrounding countryside due to a number of reasons having little to do with the basic atmospheric physics of global warming. The larger a city and the more dense its degree of urbanization, the greater the warming. The “urban heat-island effect” was first identified by a meteorologist, Luke Howard, in 1818. Extra heat is produced in urban areas by the city’s many sources

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of waste heat, from building heating and air-conditioning, as well as from motor vehicles, among other sources. Heating also increases when open fields and forests become streets, sidewalks, parking lots, and buildings. The dark colors of city structures, especially asphalt streets and parking lots which make up as much as 30 percent of many urban surfaces have a very low albedo, so most of the sun’s heat energy is absorbed, not reflected. Cities also warm more rapidly than surrounding countryside because they are usually drier and have less surface water and fewer green plants (both of which cool the air through evaporation) than most rural areas. Furthermore, as new housing and businesses spread from urban areas, some of the cities’ urban heat follows with them, spreading in widening suburban circles. In Japan, suburban areas near Tokyo have experienced temperature rises of between of 2◦ C and 3◦ C in 10 years. In a compact urban area such as Manhattan Island, the total heat generated by the city can add quite substantially to solar radiation. By one estimate, the heat energy generated by motor vehicles and space heat on Manhattan during an average winter day sometimes exceeds that of incoming solar radiation (Weiner, 1990, 262). Cities in the United States have 10 more hot nights a year than 40 years ago, Cornell University climate researchers have found. While summers are heating up in urban areas, in rural areas, temperatures have remained more constant, said Arthur DeGaetano, associate professor of earth and atmospheric sciences there. “What surprised me was the difference in the extreme temperature trends between rural and urban areas,” said DeGaetano. “I expected maybe a 25 percent increase for the urban areas compared to the rural ones. I didn’t expect a 300 percent increase across the United States” (Hot Times, 2002). Rural areas experienced an average increase of only three warm nights a year in the same period, according to this study. “This means that cities and the suburbs may be contributing greatly to their own heat problems,” DeGaetano said, “Greenhouse gases could be a factor, but not the one and only cause. There is natural climate variability, and you tend to see higher temperatures during periods of drought” (Hot Times, 2002). DeGaetano and colleagues classified a very warm night as a minimum of 70◦ F in the Eastern, Southern, and Midwestern United States. In the southwestern deserts, he said, a low of 80◦ was considered a warm night. Since the beginning of the twentieth century, almost three-quarters of the climate-reporting stations examined in the study have shown an increase in the number of very warm nights, according to the study (Hot Times, 2002).

Plants, Animals, and Human Health

Laurence S. Kalkstein has estimated that a doubling of the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere could increase heat-related mortality (deaths) to seven times the present levels if acclimatization is not factored in—that is, if people do not increase use of air-conditioning and other ways to adapt. With acclimatization (human adaptation to higher temperatures), the estimated increase in heat wave mortality estimated by Kalkstein is four times the present rate (Kalkstein, 1993, 1397). Kalkstein observed that each urban area had its own “temperature threshold,” at which the death rate from heat prostration rose rapidly. Seattle, for example, has a lower threshold than Dallas. “Mortality rates in warmer cities seemed to be less affected no matter how high the temperature rose,” Kalkstein wrote (Kalkstein, 1993, 1398). He suggested that residents of urban areas in poor countries would find adaptation more difficult because of limited access to air-conditioning. A region need not be poor to suffer a stunning degree of mortality from heat. One analysis put Europe’s death toll at 35,000 or more during the scorching summer of 2003, which is described at the beginning of Chapter 2. The one common thread in most of these deaths was lack of access to air-conditioning, which earlier had not been considered necessary in much of Europe. HEALTH BENEFITS FROM WARMING?

Pim Martens has written that while the overall impact of global warming on human health is expected to be markedly negative, human beings may experience a few positive outcomes. Some diseases that thrive in cold weather (such as influenza) may find their ranges and effects reduced in a warmer world. The elderly might die less frequently of cardiovascular and pulmonary ailments (heart diseases) that peak during cold weather. “Whether the milder winters could offset the mortality during the summer heat waves is one of the questions that demands further research,” Martens wrote (Martens, 1999, 535). Countering the views of Epstein and others, some health researchers contend that global warming will do little to increase incidence of tropical diseases. “For mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, yellow fever, and malaria, the assumption that warming will foster the spread of the vector is simplistic,” contended Bob Zimmerman, an entomologist with the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Zimmerman pointed out that in the Amazon basin, more than 20 species of Anopheles mosquitoes can transmit malaria, and each is adapted to a different habitat. He said, “All of these are going to be impacted by rainfall, temperature, and humidity in different ways. There could actually be

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decreases in malaria in certain regions, depending on what happens” (Taubes, 1997). Virologist Barry Beaty of Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, agreed with Zimmerman. “You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to say we’ve got a problem,” he says. “But global warming is not the current problem. It is a collapse in public-health measures, an increase in drug resistance in parasites, and an increase in pesticide resistance in vector populations. Mosquitoes and parasites are efficiently exploiting these problems” (Taubes, 1997). While many health experts maintain that tropical diseases will spread with rising temperatures, a minority (one of whom is Bjorn Lomborg, the Danish “skeptical environmentalist”) points to the fact that malaria once was endemic in Europe and the United States as recently as the nineteenth century, before medications and public health measures eradicated it. Therefore, asserts Lomborg, the spread of malaria is not a climatic issue but a matter of public health (Lomborg, 2007). Countering the majority view that a warmer world will spread malaria, David J. Rogers and Sarah E. Randolph, using their own models, wrote in Science that even extreme rises in temperature would not spread the disease. They argued that the spread of malaria was too poorly understood to base a forecast several decades into the future on temperature as a singular variable. For example, the “Dengie Marshes” of Essex, in England, a breeding ground for malaria-carrying mosquitoes in the seventeenth century, have dried up, making an increase in temperatures not a factor vis-`a-vis malaria’s spread. Malaria is not a new disease in the temperate zones. It was common in the Roman Empire. A British invasion of Holland in 1806 failed to drive out French troops because large numbers of the British soldiers became ill with malaria. Malaria was a public health problem in most of the Eastern United States during warm, humid summers before medications were developed for it about a century ago. Paul Reiter, a dengue fever expert with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Puerto Rico office, argued against the relative importance of climate in human disease by pointing to periods in the past during which malaria and other tropical diseases were more common than today in cooler regions. He argued that the spread of malaria was more closely linked to deforestation, agricultural practices, human migration, poor public health services, civil war, strife, and natural disasters. “Claims that malaria resurgence is due to climate change ignore these realities and disregard history,” he wrote in an article about malaria’s spread through England during the Little Ice Age, which began about

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1450 and lasted for several hundred years, during a climate that was cooler than today’s (McFarling, 2002, A-7). S. I. Hay and colleagues investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high altitude sites in East Africa where increases in malaria had been reported during the past two decades. “Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapor pressure, and the number of months suitable for Plasmodium. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence.” Therefore, they find that associations between resurgence of malaria and climate change at high altitudes in these areas “are overly simplistic” (Hay et al., 2002, 905). REFERENCES Asner, Gregory P., David E. Knapp, Eben N. Broadbent, Paulo J. C. Oliveira, Michaael Keller, and Jose N. Silva. “Selective Logging in the Brazilian Amazon.” Science 310 (October 21, 2005): 480–481. Benton, Michael J. When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time. London: Thames and Hudson, 2003. Collins, Simon. “Birds Starve in Warmer Seas.” New Zealand Herald, November 14, 2002 (in LEXIS). “Comment Period Extended on Polar Bear Extinction Threat.” Environment News Service, October 2, 2007, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/oct2007/200710-02-091.asp. Connor, Steve. “Malaria Could Become Endemic Disease in U.K.” London Independent, September 12, 2001, 14. ———. “World’s Wildlife Shows Effects of Global Warming.” London Independent, March 28, 2002, 11. Crable, Ad. “For Armadillos, It’s Pa. [Pennsylvania] or Bust.” Lancaster New Era (Pennsylvania), September 5, 2006, C-5. Davey, Monica. “Balmy Weather May Bench a Baseball Staple.” The New York Times, July 11, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/11/us/11ashbat.html. Davis, Robert E., Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, and Wendy M. Novicoff. “Changing Heat-related Mortality in the United States.” Environmental Health Perspectives Vol. 111. (July 23, 2003). Epstein, Paul R. “Climate, Ecology, and Human Health.” December 18, 1998, http://www.iitap.iastate.edu/gccourse/issues/health/health.html. ———. “Profound Consequences: Climate Disruption, Contagious Disease, and Public Health.” Native Americas 16(3/4) (1999): 64–67. Epstein, Paul R., Henry F. Diaz, Scott Elias, Georg Grabherr, Nicohlas E. Graham, Willem J. M. Martens, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, and Joel Susskind. “Biological and Physical Signs of Climate Change: Focus on Mosquito-borne Diseases.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79(Part 1) (1998): 409–417. Fountain, Henry. “Observatory: Lobsters Quarantining Lobsters.” The New York Times, May 30, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/30/science/30observ.html. ———. “Observatory: Threat to Rice Crops.” The New York Times, December 12, 2000, F-5.

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Global Warming 101 “Gators Spotted in Mississippi River Backwaters at Memphis.” Daytona Beach NewsJournal, May 13, 2006. Gelbspan, Ross. The Heat Is On: The High Stakes Battle Over Earth’s Threatened Climate. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1997. Giles, Jim. “The Outlook for Amazonia Is Dry.” Nature 442 (August 17, 2006): 726– 727. Glick, Patricia. Global Warming: The High Costs of Inaction. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1998, http://www.sierraclub.org/global-warming/inaction.html. Gugliotta, Guy. “Warming May Threaten 37 Per Cent of Species by 2050.” The Washington Post, January 8, 2004, A-1, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ articles/A63153-2004Jan7.html. Haines, Andrew. “The Implications for Health.” In Jeremy Leggett, ed., Global Warming: The Greenpeace Report. New York: Oxford University Press, 1990, 149–162. Hallam, Anthony, and Paul Wignall. Mass Extinctions and Their Aftermath. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997. Halweil, Brian. “The Irony of Climate.” World Watch Magazine, March/April, 2005, 18–23. Hay, S. I., J. Cox, D. J. Rogers, S. E. Randolph, D. I. Stern, G. D. Shanks, M. F. Myers, and R. W. Snow. “Climate Change and the Resurgence of Malaria in the East African Highlands.” Nature 425 (February 21, 2002): 905–909. Hoffman, Ian. “Rising Temps—Declining Crop Yields.” Inside Bay Area (California), March 16, 2007, n.p. “Hot Times in the City Getting Hotter.” Environment News Service, September 27, 2002, http://ens-news.com/ens/sep2002/2002-09-27-09.asp#anchor8. Houghton, John. Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997. Kalkstein, Laurence S. “Direct Impacts in Cities.” Lancet 342 (December 4, 1993): 1397–1400. Kever, Jeannie. “Cuddly Critters: They’re Makin’ Tracks; The Armadillo, That Official Small Mammal of Texas, Is Waddling Its Way North—Maybe the Grass Really Is Greener There.” Houston Chronicle, September 4, 2006, 1. Kiesecker, Joseph M., Andrew R. Blaustein, and Lisa K. Belden. “Complex Causes of Amphibian Population Declines.” Nature 410 (April 5, 2001): 681–684. Laukaitis, Algis J. “Talmage Man: No Kiddo . . . It’s an Armadillo!” Lincoln Journal Star, August 18, 2005, A-1. Lawton, R. O., U. S. Nair, R. A. Pielke, Sr., and R. M. Welch. “Climatic Impact of Tropical Lowland Deforestation on Nearby Montane Cloud Forests.” Science 294 (October 19, 2001): 584–587. Lavers, Chris. Why Elephants Have Big Ears. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2000. Lazaroff, Cat. “Loggerhead Turtle Sex Ratio Raises Concerns.” Environment News Service, December 18, 2002, http://ens-news.com/ens/dec2002/2002-12-1806.asp. Lombortg, Bjorn. Cool It! The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming. New York: Knopf, 2007. Martens, Willem J. M., Theo H. Jetten, and Dana A. Focks. “Sensitivity of Malaria, Schistosomiasis, and Dengue to Global Warming.” Climatic Change 35 (1997): 145–156.

Plants, Animals, and Human Health Martens, Pim. “How Will Climate Change Affect Human Health?” American Scientist 87(6) (November/December, 1999): 534–541. McEwen, Bill. “The West’s Dying Forests” [Letter to the Editor]. The New York Times, August 2, 2004, A-16. McFarling, Usha Lee. “Study Links Warming to Epidemics; The Survey Lists Species Hit by Outbreaks and Suggests that Humans are also in Peril.” Los Angeles Times, June 21, 2002, A-7. Naik, Gautam, and Geraldo Samor. “Drought Spotlights Extent of Damage in Amazon Basin.” The Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2005, A-12. Parker-Pope, Tara. “Climate Changes Are Making Poison Ivy More Potent.” The Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2007, D-1. Parmesan, Camille, and Gary Yohe. “A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across Natural Systems.” Nature 421 (January 2, 2003): 37–42. Pianin, Eric. “A Baltimore Without Orioles? Study Says Global Warming May Rob Maryland, Other States of Their Official Birds.” The Washington Post, March 4, 2002, A-3. Polakovic, Gary. “Deforestation Far Away Hurts Rain Forests, Study Says; Downing Trees on Costa Rica’s Coastal Plains Inhibits Cloud Formation in Distant Peaks. ‘It’s Incredibly Ominous,’ a Scientist Says.” Los Angeles Times, October 19, 2001, A-1. Pounds, J. Alan, and Robert Puschendorf. “Clouded Futures.” Nature 427 (January 8, 2004): 107–108. Prigg, Mark. “Despite All the Heavy Rain, That Was the Hottest June for 28 Years.” London Evening Standard, July 1, 2004, A-9. Reynolds, James. “Earth Is Heading for Mass Extinction in Just a Century.” The Scotsman, June 18, 2003, 6. Root, Terry L., Jeff T. Price, Kimberly L. Hall, Stephen H. Schneider, Cynthia Rosenzweig, and J. Alan Pounds. “Fingerprints of Global Warming on Wild Animals and Plants.” Nature 421 (January 2, 2003): 57–60. Schmid, Randolph E. “Warming Climate Reduces Yield for Rice, One of World’s Most Important Crops.” Associated Press, June 28, 2004 (in LEXIS). Seabrook, Charles. “Amphibian Populations Drop.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, October 15, 2004, 1-C. Smith, Lewis. Falling Numbers Silence Cuckoo’s Call of Spring.” London Times, March 6, 2002 (in LEXIS). Stark, Mike. “Assault by Bark Beetles Transforming Forests; Vast Swaths of West Are Red, Gray, and Dying; Drought, Fire Suppression, and Global, Warming are Blamed.” Billings Gazette in Los Angeles Times, October 6, 2002, B-1. Stokstad, Erik. “Global Survey Documents Puzzling Decline of Amphibians.” Science 306 (October 15,2004): 391. Stuart, Simon N., Janice S. Cranson, Neil A. Cox, Bruce E. Young, Ana S.L. Rodrigues, Debra L. Fischman, and Robert W. Walker. “Status and Trends of Amphibian Declines and Extinctions Worldwide.” Science 306 (December 3, 2004): 1783– 1786. “Suffocation Suspected for Greatest Mass Extinction.” NewScientist.com News Service, September 9, 2003, http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id= ns99994138.

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Global Warming 101 Suhr, Jim. “Armadillos Making Northern March.” Illinois State Wire, September 16, 2006 (in LEXIS). Taubes, Gary. “Apocalypse Not.” 1997, http://www.junkscience.com/news/taubes2. html]. Thomas, Chris D., Alison Cameron, Rhys E. Green, Michael Bakkenes, Linda J. Beaumont, Yvonne C. Collingham, Barend F. N. Erasmus, Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira, Alan Grainger, Lee Hannah, Lesley Hughes, Brian Huntley, Albert S. van Jaarsveld, Guy F. Midgley, Lera Miles, Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta, A. Townsend Peterson, Oliver L. Phillips, and Stephen A. Williams. “Extinction Risk from Climate Change.” Nature 427 (January 8, 2004): 145–148. Toner, Mike. “Warming Rearranges Life in Wild.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, January 2, 2003, 1-A. Wagner, Angie. “Debate Over Causes Aside, Warm Climate’s Effects Striking in the West.” Associated Press, April 27, 2004 (in LEXIS). Walther, Gian-Reto. 2003. “Plants in a Warmer World.” Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 6(3): 169–185. Walther, Gian-Reto, Emmanuel Gritti, Silje Berger, Thomas Hickler, Zhiyao Tang, and Martin T. Sykes. “Palms Tracking Climate Change.” Global Ecology and Biogeography 16(2007): 801–809. DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00328.x. Walther, Gian-Reto, Eric Post, Peter Convey, Annette Menzel, Camille Parmesan, Trevor J. C. Beebee, Jean-Marc Fromentin, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, and Franz Bairlein. “Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change.” Nature 416 (March 28, 2002): 389–395. Webb, Jason. “Mosquito Invasion as Argentina Warms.” Reuters, 1998, http:// bonanza.lter.uaf.edu/∼davev/nrm304/glbxnews.htm. Weiner, Jonathan. The Next One Hundred Years: Shaping the Fate of Our Living Earth. New York: Bantam Books, 1990. Yoon, Carol Kaesuk. “Something Missing in Fragile Cloud Forest: The Clouds.” The New York Times, November 20, 2001, F-5.

6

Solutions CHANGING THE WAYS WE USE ENERGY

Having surveyed evidence of worldwide warming, along with the science supporting it and political controversy surrounding it, one may ask what we can do to avoid damaging climate change. Chances of avoiding serious consequences of climate change revolve around humankind’s ability to create political and technological solutions. One will not work without the other. Technological changes range from the very basic (such as mileage improvements on existing gasoline-burning automobiles, changes in building codes, and painting building roofs white) to the exotic, including the invention of microorganisms that eat carbon dioxide and the generation of microwaves from the moon. In between are the solutions that will fundamentally change the ways in which we use energy, moving from fossil fuels to renewable, nonpolluting sources such as solar and wind power. By the end of this century, the internal combustion engine may be as much of an antique as a horse buggy is today. By 2007, the political consensus was changing in the United States with regard to solving the problem. In April 2007, ConocoPhillips became the first major U.S. oil company to call for a federal carbon dioxide emissions cap. Many other companies did the same, as the U.S. Congress, with a new Democratic majority, began to seriously consider legislation along this line. S. Pacala and R. Socolow, writing in Science, have asserted that, using existing technology, “[h]umanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century” (Pacala and Socolow, 2004, 968). By “solve,” they mean that the tools are at hand to meet global

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energy needs without doubling preindustrial levels of carbon dioxide. Their “stabilization strategy” involves intense attention to improved automotive fuel economy, reduced reliance on cars, more efficient building construction, improved power plant efficiency, substitution of natural gas for coal, storage of carbon captured in power plants as well as hydrogen and synthetic fuel plants, more use of nuclear power, development of wind and photovoltaic (solar) energy sources, creation of hydrogen from renewable sources, and more intense use of biofuels such as ethanol. The strategy also advocates reductions in deforestation and aggressive management of agricultural soils through such measures as conservation tillage—drilling seeds into soil without plowing (Pacala and Socolow, 2004, 969–971). A MORATORIUM ON COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY WITHOUT SEQUESTRATION

On a societywide scale, James E. Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, proposed a number of policy-level solutions to the U.S. House of Representatives on March 19, 2007. First, and most important, Hansen recommended a ban on construction of new coal-fired power plants until technology for carbon dioxide capture and sequestration (that prevents the plants’ carbon dioxide from reaching

Greenpeace “Save the Climate” balloon ( Jeff Dixon)

Solutions

James E. Hansen visiting his high school at Denison, Iowa, May, 2007 (Patricia E. Keiffer)

the air) is available. In other words, the greenhouse gases that would enter the atmosphere from burning coal to generate electricity must be directed into the earth, below the ocean, or destroyed. About a quarter of power plants’ carbon dioxide emissions will remain in the air more than 500 years, long after new technology is refined and deployed. As a result, Hansen expects that all power plants without adequate sequestration will be obsolete and slated for closure (or updated with new technology) before mid-century (Hansen, March 19, 2007). Hansen believes that [c]oal will determine whether we continue to increase climate change or slow the human impact. Increased fossil fuel CO2 in the air today, compared to the pre-industrial atmosphere, is due 50% to coal, 35% to oil and 15% to gas. As oil resources peak, coal will determine future CO2 levels. Recently, after giving a high school commencement talk in my hometown, Denison, Iowa, I drove from Denison to Dunlap, where my parents are buried. For most of 20 miles there were trains parked, engine to caboose, half of the cars being filled with coal. If we cannot stop the building of more coal-fired power plants, those coal

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By mid-2007, several new coal-powered plants were being canceled or postponed across the United States, as Hansen’s advice began to sink in. By that time, 645 coal-fired plants were producing about half the country’s electricity. As recently as May 2007, more than 150 new ones had been planned to meet electricity demand that was rising at an annualized rate of 2.7 percent. A private equity deal worth $32 billion involving TXU Corp. trimmed 8 of 11 planned coal plants, as similar plants were scuttled in Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, and other states. Montana and Iowa were debating whether to scrap plans for coal-fired power plants. About two dozen coal plants have been canceled since early 2006, according to the National Energy Technology Laboratory in Pittsburg, an agency of the U.S. Department of Energy. Citibank downgraded the stocks of coal-mining companies in mid-July, saying, “[P]rophesies of a new wave of coal-fired generation have vaporized” (Smith, 2007, A-1). Climate change concerns are often cited when coal plants are canceled, especially in Florida, where rising sea levels from melting ice in the Arctic, Antarctic, and mountain glaciers are already eroding coastlines. Florida’s Public Service Commission is now legally required to give preference to alternative energy projects over any new generation of electricity from fossil fuels. The states of Washington and California have been moving toward similar requirements. Xcel Energy and Public Service of Colorado were allowed to go ahead with a 750-megawatt coalfired power plant only after they agreed to obtain 775 megawatts of wind power. In the meantime, however, China was adding coal-fired power at a record rate to satisfy the needs of its growing economy. Any worldwide moratorium would have to include China, which gets the vast majority of its power from “dirty” (low-energy, high-pollution) coal. Nine of the ten cities with the worst air pollution are in China, and most of it comes from coal-fired power plants. WIND POWER CAPACITY SURGES

By the early twenty-first century, wind power was becoming competitive in cost with electricity generated by fossil fuels, as its use surged. While wind power still was a tiny fraction of energy generated in the United States, some areas of Europe (Denmark, as well as parts of

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Germany and Spain) were using it as a major source. Advances in wind turbine technology adapted from the aerospace industry have reduced the cost of wind power from 38 cents per kilowatt-hour (during the early 1980s) to 3 to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour. This rate is competitive with costs of power generation from fossil fuels, but costs vary according to site. Major corporations, including Shell International, have been moving into wind power. By 2002, Spain generated 4,830 megawatts of wind power. Spain’s industrial state of Navarra, which generated no wind power in 1996, by 2002 was generating 25 percent of its electricity that way. With its wind turbines producing electricity at 4 to 5 cents per kilowatthour, Denmark by 2004 was generating 20 percent of its electricity from wind power. In the German state of Schleswig-Holstein, the wind energy industry has become the second-largest employer after tourism. More than 30,000 wind-power-related jobs were created in Germany by 2001, as private firms building rotors, towers, transfer stations, and ever more powerful turbines have sprung up across wind-rich coastal states (Williams, 2001, A-1). Wind Power was developing rapidly in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Powergenerating capacity from wind jumped 27 percent in the United States during 2006, and was expected to do the same in 2007 (Harden, 2007, A-3). By 2007, wind power had become so popular that a shortage of parts was causing installations to fall behind demand. A new phrase in the English language, “wind-rich” describes an area with a relatively steady, unimpeded access to turbine-ready breezes. Germany, the world leader, where the government pays above-market rates for all electricity produced by wind power, added 12 percent to its generating capacity between 2005 and 2006, increasing it from 18,415 megawatts to 20,622, or 4.2 percent of the country’s electricity generation. Spain increased its capacity from 10,028 megawatts to 11,615 megawatts, 8 percent of national electric-power-generating capacity. The United States added 26.8 percent to its wind-generating capacity in the same year (from 9,149 megawatts to 11,603 megawatts), the third in the world, but only a quarter of 1 percent of the total capacity. In tiny Denmark, with 3,136 megawatts, the government eliminated most wind power subsidies. Compared to their populations, India and China’s wind power capacity is miniscule, but the capacity increased 41.5 percent in India (from 4,430 megawatts to 6,270 megawatts) and 106 percent in China (from 1,260 megawatts to 2,604 megawatts) (Johnson, 2007, A-8). By 2007, 60 percent of the electricity of Spain’s tiny industrial state of Navarra was coming from renewable sources (mainly wind, with some

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solar), with plans to raise the proportion to 75 percent by 2010. At the end of 2006, national wind power resources stood at: Germany 20,652 megawatts, Spain 11,614 megawatts, the United States 11,575 megawatts, India 6,228 megawatts, and Denmark 3,101 megawatts (Fairless, 2007, 1048). Wind capacity in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, where it can be combined with hydroelectric, has been rising very rapidly, from only 25 megawatts in 1998 to a projected 3,800 megawatts by 2009. During 2006 alone, Washington State added 428 megawatts of wind power, trailing only Texas in new installations. One megawatt of wind power can supply the needs of 225 to 300 homes, on average, each day (Harden, 2007, A-3). Randall Swisher, executive director of the American Wind Energy Association, a trade group, said the electrical grid in the Northwest is uniquely suited to wind power because of the dominance of hydroelectricity and also because of relatively reliable wind, progressive utility companies, and new state laws demanding renewable energy that require utilities, over time, to generate 15 to 25 percent of their energy from renewable sources (Harden, 2007, A-3). THE NEW SOLAR POWER

Solar power has advanced significantly since the days of inefficient photovoltaics. In California, solar power is being built into roof tiles, and talk is that nanotechnology will make any surface on which the sun shines a source of power—windows, for example. Experiments have been undertaken with a new form of solar energy—Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). In our lifetimes, as homes feed power into the electrical grid, electric meters will run backward, feeding power into the electrical grid from individual homes and businesses, using carbon-based fuels only as backup. A 380-foot concrete tower surrounded by 600 huge mirrors near Seville, Spain, is part of a new CSP plant that produces solar power that is commercially viable on a large scale. In this case, the power station, constructed by Abengoa S.A., can supply about 6,000 homes. Spain and other European countries are subsidizing CSP and other solar technologies to move away from fossil fuels. According to the consulting firm Emerging Energy Research, 45 CSP projects were in planning around the world by 2007, including some in the United States. The Spanish government has set a goal of 500 megawatts of solar power by the year 2010. Spain is presently subsidizing CSP development, requiring utility companies to buy their power at above-market rates. Abengoa plans to eventually build enough CSP capacity to supply all of Seville,

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15 megawatt solar photovoltaic array at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, completed December 2007 (U.S. Air Force, http://www.nellis. af.mil)

about 180,000 homes. In the United States, Arizona Power was conducting a test of CSP in 2007. New CSP technology is much more powerful than photovoltaic cells. A rooftop photovoltaic complex might power a small office building, while the complex near Seville can generate 11 megawatts, enough electricity for a small town. The CSP mirrors track the sun and concentrate its power on single points, generating steam that runs turbines to generate power. Some of the heat is also stored in oil or molten salt to run the turbine after sunset or when clouds block the sun. Such new technologies may increase the potential of solar power and bring down its cost, which is now 12 to 15 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared to an average of 4 cents for coal-fired energy. In California by 2007 many new homes were being built with solar cells embedded in their roof tiles. T. J. Rodgers, an entrepreneur, underwrote the solar cells’ production. The PowerLight Corporation, based near San Francisco, bought the cells from Mr. Rodgers’s company, the SunPower Corporation, and turned them into roof tiles. The tiles ended up on houses built by Grupe Homes, based in Stockton, because state utility regulators established a $5,500 state-financed rebate for builders who

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installed similar systems, which cost $20,000. Under a law that took effect in 2006, the U.S. federal government provides home buyers a $2,000 tax credit; state law guarantees lower electric bills as utilities buy back power homeowners do not need (Barringer, 2006). By the end of 2007, Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada was poised to open what its publicists called the largest solar power complex in the United States. CHANGES IN PERSONAL TRANSPORT

Cars are fast and easy but they also fill the atmosphere with greenhouse gases and contribute to obesity from lack of exercise. Cars are an addiction: they shape our cities to meet their needs. Most urban areas in the United States have been shaped by the automobile to such a degree that, for most people, any other transportation option is unavailable, unappealing, or impossible. To combat global warming, we will eventually have to reshape our cities. The ultimate solution is to work at home (that cuts commute time and energy consumption to zero), a solution that is becoming more appealing. Many book publishers, for example, now use virtual networks with people across the country, many of whom work at home, linked by digital technology. The next best option is to live close enough to the office to sharply reduce or eliminate one’s commuting carbon footprint. We also need to reshape the automobile, which is presently a monument to energy inefficiency. Only 13 percent of a car’s energy reaches the wheels, and only half of that actually propels the car. The rest is lost to idling, waste heat, vibration, and such things as air conditioning. At least 6 percent converts to brake heating when a car stops, so less than 1 percent of the energy the car consumes ends up propelling the driver. Amory Lovins recommends making cars much lighter, as well as developing hydrogen fuel cells. He also suggests stripping the oil industry of subsidies that make gasoline cheaper than bottled water (Lovins, 2005, 74, 76, 82–83). In the short run, mileage standards will be raised for gasoline-powered cars, forcing them to become more efficient. Europe by 2007 was measuring cars’ efficiency not in miles per gallon of gasoline but in grams of carbon dioxide released per kilometer. Ethanol and other biofuels may help somewhat, although they are still fossil fuels. They are 15 to 20 percent more efficient than gasoline. Hydrogen fuel will be a viable option only when it is available from renewable sources. Hydrogen must be manufactured, and these days it is usually done with fossil fuels. The net greenhouse gas savings is zero. It’s better to take a bus, walk, or, if you can, use a bicycle.

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Working on the Railroad: Transport of the Future Most histories of transportation have air travel replacing railroads for all but heavy freight. However, with mounting concern regarding carbon footprints and the decay of the U.S. commercial aviation system (which is prone to delays, weather problems, security paralysis, and other problems), punctual European trains look better every day. One can walk onto a train a few minutes before the start of a trip. In Europe, they are clean, fast, and attended by courteous staff. Remodeled cars include trays for desktops, rooms for small meetings, and Wi-Fi access. The new TGV train leaves Paris at the speed of a commercial airliner on takeoff—180 miles per hour. Europe’s fast trains benefit from a network of “dedicated track,” 2,912 miles that allow no freight or slower trains. China has built a magnetic levitation shuttle between the Pudong airport and downtown Shanghai that accelerates to 240 miles an hour during an 8-minute trip. Plans call for a similar line to open between Beijing and Shanghai in 2010 (Finney, 2007, 16). Japan has long used 180-miles-per-hour “bullet trains” between Tokyo and Osaka.

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Bikes in the New Urban Utopia Drivers are free to buy an SUV in Denmark, but the bill includes a registration tax up to 180 percent of the purchase price. Denmark’s taxation system has become an environmental exclamation point. Imagine, for example, paying more than $80,000 in taxes (as well as $6 a gallon for gasoline) to buy and drive a Hummer H2—and pesky bicyclists may ridicule your elegantly pimped ride as an environmental atrocity. The automobile’s urban territory has been shrinking in European cities. A growing web of pedestrian malls allows tens of thousands of people to traverse downtown Stockholm on foot every day—down a gentle hill, northwest to southeast, along Drottinggatan, past the Riksdag (Parliament) and the King’s Palace, merging with Vasterlanggaten, into the Old Town—for more than 2 miles. More and more streets across the city are gradually being placed off-limits to motor traffic (Johansen, 2007, 23). Bicycles have become privileged personal urban transport. To sample bicycle gridlock, come to Copenhagen, which has deployed 2,000 bikes around the city for free use. The mayor, Klaus Bondam, commutes by bicycle. Helmets are not required, despite the occasional bout of two-wheeler road rage as bicyclists clip each other on crowded streets. People ride bikes while pregnant, drinking coffee, smoking, and in rain or shine, using a wide array of baskets to carry groceries and briefcases.

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The Copenhagen airport has parking spaces for bicycles. On weekends, more than half the admissions to the emergency room of Frederiksberg Hospital are drunken cyclists (who tend to run into poles). On a more sober note, more than a third of Copenhagen residents ride bikes to work (40 percent do so in Amsterdam), in a conscious assault on the “car culture” (Keates, 2007, W-10) to personally reduce greenhouse gas emissions. New bike-parking facilities are planned at Amsterdam’s main train station that will house up to 10,000 machines. Officials from some U.S. cities, as well as from bigger cities in Europe (London and Munich), have been studying Amsterdam and Copenhagen. Bicycles also account for one-eighth of urban travel in Sweden, where Stockholm is laced with many well-used bicycle paths that complement its growing web of pedestrian-only malls.

Ss AVIATION: THE MOST CARBON-INEFFICIENT MODE OF TRAVEL

The most carbon-inefficient mode of transport is aviation, which requires three times as much fuel per passenger mile as a small car with one occupant. A great deal of jet fuel is required to take passengers to high altitudes and keep them there at speeds of up to 600 miles an hour. While wind and solar power are good for generating electricity, nothing but fossil fuels provide the thrust necessary to keep a jet aircraft aloft. Clearly, any serious solution to global warming is going to require a serious examination of air travel. A third of the world’s commercial aviation is flown in the United States. Aviation mileage per person in the United States increased 400 percent from 1970 to 2006 (Hillman and Fawcett, 2007, 55). The United Kingdom has become the world’s largest airport hub. One-fifth of the world’s international airline passengers fly to or from an airport in the United Kingdom. The numbers have risen fivefold in the past 30 years, and the government envisages that they will more than double by 2030, to 476 million a year (Monbiot, 2006). Flight traffic is exploding in England; a third runway has been planned for London’s Heathrow international airport, with similar extensions at London’s Stansted, Birmingham, Edinburgh, and Glasgow airports. Twelve other airports have already announced expansion plans. According to the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, the growth the government foresees will require the equivalent of another Heathrow-sized airport every 5 years (Monbiot, 2006). “As far as climate change is concerned,” wrote George Monbiot in the London Guardian,

Solutions [t]his is an utter, unparalleled disaster. It’s not just that aviation represents the world’s fastest-growing source of carbon-dioxide emissions. The burning of aircraft fuel has a “radiative forcing ratio” of around 2.7. What this means is that the total warming effect of aircraft emissions is 2.7 times as great as the effect of the carbon dioxide alone. The water vapor they produce forms ice crystals in the upper troposphere (vapor trails and cirrus clouds) that trap the earth’s heat. According to calculations by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, if you added the two effects together (it urges some caution as they are not directly comparable), aviation’s emissions alone would exceed the government’s target for the country’s entire output of greenhouse gases in 2050 by around 134 per cent. (Monbiot, 2006)

The government excludes international aircraft emissions from the target. “In researching my book about how we might achieve a 90 per cent cut in carbon emissions by 2030,” wrote Monbiot, “I have been discovering, greatly to my surprise, that every other source of global warming can be reduced or replaced to that degree without a serious reduction in our freedoms. But there is no means of sustaining long-distance, high-speed travel” (Monbiot, 2006). According to the International Air Transport Association, jet engines by 2006 were 40 percent more fuel-efficient than they were in the 1960s. Future efficiency gains may be small, however, due to the mature nature of jet engine technology. With commercial aviation mileage expected to double by 2050, the search is on for solutions to an air transport system in which one airplane flying from New York City to Stockholm emits as much carbon dioxide as an automobile commuter in 50 years (Daviss, 2007, 33). Various systems have been tried and abandoned that might make the aerodynamics of jet aircraft more efficient. Usually, systems meant to improve laminar flow do not pay for themselves over the life of an aircraft. Richard Branson, owner of Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd., in September 2006 revealed plans to invest $3 billion to develop ecologically friendly plant-based jet fuel. At present, the use of hydrogen fuel or ethanol in place of the usual kerosene jet fuel faces formidable problems. Hydrogen fuel provides only 25 percent as much energy per volume as jet fuel, meaning that a hydrogen-powered aircraft would need huge fuel tanks and have to fly with a heavier load, reducing mileage. Because of the volume, fuel could not be carried in the wings but in the body of the aircraft, increasing drag. Hydrogen would produce no carbon dioxide, but its output of water vapor at high altitudes would increase the size of contrails (the exhaust of airplanes), which aggravate global warming.

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Plant-based fuel weighs two-thirds more by volume than kerosene for the same amount of thrust. It also freezes easily at high altitudes (Daviss, 2007, 35). One problem with making an airline fleet more efficient is the long life of its vehicles. The Boeing 747, for example, is still flying 36 years after it was introduced. The Tyndall Centre predicts that the Airbus A380, new in 2006, will be flying (in slightly modified form) in 2070. “Switching to more efficient models,” wrote Monbiot, “would mean scrapping the existing fleet” (Monbiot, 2006). Airline projections that air traffic will double within two decades have compelled atmospheric scientists to ask whether growing air traffic is altering the chemistry of the stratosphere through which jets travel. The combustion of jet fuel releases into the atmosphere several chemicals that affect the balance of greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, water vapor, nitrous oxides, sulfur oxides, and particulate matter (soot). Most work has concentrated on aircraft engines’ nitrous oxide production and its relation to the ozone level of the atmosphere. Scientific scrutiny of jet aircraft’s role in global warming is “considerably poorer than that of ozone chemical processes. (Friedl, 1999, 58). Tim O’Riordan, of the Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environmental Research at the University of East Anglia, said, “Everyone who uses a car or flies regularly should consider what positives they can put back into the environment by way of compensation. Maybe, for example, you already cycle to work, or take public transport, as a chosen alternative to driving. The next time you fly somewhere, either by choice or for business, the carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide production from the plane you use will cancel out a year of contributions from cycling” (Urquhart and Gilchrist, 2002, 9).

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Eating Low on the Food Chain Walking through an ordinary American supermarket can be a tour of the world, and a universe of food options. Many of them are very carbonintensive. The raising of beef, for example, requires at least 10 times the energy inputs of the vegetable crops we could use as protein instead. What, however, if our veggies come from Chile, Nicaragua, and New Zealand out of season? When figuring the carbon footprint of food, the distance it must come to get to your plate is an important factor. Food sold in U.S. grocery stores travels an average of 1,500 miles to reach consumers, according to David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agricultural science at Cornell University. The food industry burns almost one-fifth of all the petroleum

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consumed in the United States, about as much as automobiles, according to Michael Pollan’s The Omnivore’s Dilemma (Knoblauch, 2007, 46). The food in today’s U.S. supermarket requires 6 calories of energy to produce 1 calorie of food. Much of this is in transport, but also in energyintensive cultivation of factory farms, as well as many people’s preference for energy-intensive types of food, such as meats, most notably beef (Hillman and Fawcett, 2007, 60).

Ss ETHANOL: THE RIGHT WAY, AND THE WRONG WAY

Greenhouse gas emissions from ethanol (biofuel) are lower than for gasoline, but not by much. The difference varies by the source; for cornbased ethanol, it is usually 10 to 20 percent. Regardless, by 2007, driven by a 51-cent-a-gallon federal subsidy, ethanol fever had struck Capitol Hill. One bill under consideration required the use of biofuels (partially corn-based, with others from other plants) to climb to 36 billion gallons by 2022, more than six times the capacity of the nation’s 115 ethanol refineries that were presently operating. “There’s almost a gold rush in this sector at the moment,” said Philip R. Sharp, who served in the House of Representatives for 20 years and in 2007 was a lobbyist as president of Resources for the Future (Mufson, 2007, D-1). Sugarcane, used to produce ethanol in Brazil, is a much better source of energy than corn, the primary source in the United States. Researchers at the University of Minnesota have estimated that converting the entire U.S. corn crop to ethanol would replace only one-eighth of U.S. gasoline consumption. In addition, corn must be grown and transported, after which ethanol must be manufactured. Replacing a gallon of gasoline with a gallon of ethanol does not save a gallon of gasoline because most of the energy that goes into raising and transporting of corn comes from fossil fuels. The real savings is more like a quarter of a gallon—so, in reality, the United States could consume its entire national corn crop and replace only 3 percent of its gasoline usage. With all our corn in gas tanks, what would we eat? As early as January 2007, rising prices for corn were igniting demonstrations by tens of thousands of people in Mexico City, where the price of tortillas hit record highs as President George W. Bush touted corn ethanol in his State of the Union message. The price of corn shot up from $1.90 to $5.00 a bushel between 2006 and 2008. As he promoted ethanol in his 2006 State of the Union message, President George W. Bush ignored some of its problems. Many farmers also cheered the “ethanol express,” with its 51-cent-a-gallon federal

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subsidy, without much thought to the problems it caused. Prices for farmland in Nebraska soared 15 percent in 1 year, even as some farmers expressed concerns regarding ethanol’s impact, especially its requirements for scarce water. Other concerns include truck traffic in rural areas and air pollution with a sticky-sweet smell that resembles that of a barroom floor after a busy Saturday night (Barrett, 2007, A-1). Residents in Webster County, Missouri, sued to stop construction of an ethanol plant on grounds that it would use more water than all of the county’s 33,000 residents combined. By March 2007, the United States had 114 ethanol plants in operation, 80 under construction, and several dozen in planning stages (Barrett, 2007, A-8). Rising costs of farm goods, provoked partially by demand for biofuels (including corn, sugarcane, and palm oil, among others), has been pushing up food prices around the world. This rise in prices is causing distress among many poorer people in China, India, and other nations. If rising food prices are sustained, social unrest could result. Rises in prices for basic foods also drives up costs for other things, such as beef, eggs, and soft drinks. Corn, for example, is used to make corn syrup and feed livestock, as well as cereal and other more obvious products. By some estimates, about 30 percent of the U.S. grain harvest will go to ethanol by 2008, double the proportion in 2006 (Barta, 2007, A-1). The competition for food was global in scope, with grain stocks worldwide at a 30-year low in 2007. China had only a 2- to 3-month grain supply in storage as of early 2007. In Hungary, food price inflation was running at 13 percent by March 2007, versus 3 percent in 2005; in China, food prices were rising at 6 percent in 2007, versus 2 percent a year earlier. In the United States, food price inflation was annualized at 3.1 percent at the same time, up from 2.1 percent in 2005. Food prices rose 15 percent a year in Turkey during 2007, having risen fivefold in a year and a half (Barta, 2007, A-9). A night at the movies even got pricier, as the price of popcorn rose 40 percent between 2006 and 2007.

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The Indy 500 Runs on Ethanol For the first time, on May 27, 2007, all cars competing in the Indianapolis 500-mile auto race, which attain speeds of 220 miles an hour, used cornbased ethanol as fuel. Racing champion Bobby Rahal had announced the change earlier in May, calling it “a tribute to the spirit of American ingenuity and innovation.” “The use of 100 percent fuel-grade ethanol makes the Indy Car Series the first in motor sports anywhere in the world to embrace a

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renewable and environmentally friendly fuel source,” he said at the National Press Club on May 4 (Indy 500, 2007). In 2006, the race, during which some cars operate at 675 horsepower, was run on an ethanol–methanol mix. Pure methanol had been the preferred fuel at the race for four decades. After five auto races in 2007 with no signs of inferior engine performance, drivers have accepted ethanol, Griffin said. “At the end of the day, they see that we are doing something good for the environment without losing anything” (Indy 500, 2007).

Ss HYDROGEN FUEL-CELLED TRANSPORT: NO FREE LUNCH

Political correctness in the automobile industry has become associated with development of hydrogen fuel cells, especially after President George W. Bush used his State of the Union Address in January 2003 to propose $1.2 billion in research funding to develop hydrogen fuel technologies. With those funds, Bush said that America could lead the world in developing clean, hydrogen-powered automobiles. Iceland has, meanwhile, made plans to become the world’s first hydrogen economy (utilizing its geothermal resources). Reykjavik’s bus fleet has been retrofitted with fuel cell engines, and hydrogen fuelling stations have opened. Jeremy Rifkin, a liberal social critic and author, has written a book published during September 2002 titled The Hydrogen Economy: The Creation of the Worldwide Energy Web and the Redistribution of Power on Earth. Rifkin believes that cheap hydrogen could make the twenty-first century more democratic and decentralized, much the way oil transformed the nineteenth and twentieth centuries by fueling the rise of powerful corporations and nation-states. With hydrogen, writes Rifkin, “[e]very human being on Earth could be ‘empowered’” (Coy, 2002, 83). As much as it has been promoted as pollution-free, hydrogen fuel is no free climatic lunch. Hydrogen, unlike oil or coal, does not exist in nature in a combustible form. Hydrogen is usually bonded with other chemical elements, and stripping them away to produce the pure hydrogen necessary to power a fuel cell requires large amounts of energy. Unless an alternative source (such as Iceland’s geothermal resource) is available, hydrogen fuel is usually produced from fossil fuels. Extraction of hydrogen from water by electrolysis and compression of the hydrogen to fit inside a tank that can be used in an automobile requires a great deal of electricity. Until electricity is routinely produced with solar, wind, and other renewable sources, the hydrogen car will require energy from conventional sources, including fossil fuels. Today, 97 percent of

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the hydrogen produced in the United States comes from processes that involve the burning of fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas, and coal. Another problem with hydrogen fuel is storage, in both vehicles and fueling stations. Hydrogen is flammable (far more prone to explode than gasoline) and must be stored at high pressure (up to 10,000 pounds per square inch). It is also far less dense than conventional fossil fuels and so requires 50 times the storage space of gasoline. Liquid hydrogen avoids these problems, but it must be stored at 400◦ F below zero, not a practical solution for everyman’s car or every neighborhood’s fueling station. Nevertheless, the U.S. Energy Department by 2007 was pouring grant money ($170 million over 5 years) into developing a fleet of fuel cell vehicles and fueling stations. Paul M. Grant, writing in Nature, provided an illustration: “Let us assume that hydrogen is obtained by ‘splitting’ water with electricity— electrolysis. Although this isn’t the cheapest industrial approach to ‘make’ hydrogen, it illustrates the tremendous production scale involved—about 400 gigawatts of continuously available electric power generation [would] have to be added to the grid, nearly doubling the present U.S. national average power capacity.” That, calculated Grant, would represent the power-generating capacity of 200 Hoover Dams (Grant, 2003, 129–130). At $1,000 per kilowatt, the cost of such new infrastructure would total about $400 billion. What about producing these 400 gigawatts with renewable energy? Grant estimated that, “with the wind blowing hardest, and the sun shining brightest,” wind power generation would require a land area the size of New York State, or a layout of state-of-the-art photovoltaic solar cells half the size of Denmark (Grant, 2003, 130). Grant’s preferred solution to this problem is use of energy generated by nuclear fission. GENERATE YOUR OWN “GREEN” ELECTRIC POWER—AND SELL YOUR SURPLUS TO THE POWER COMPANY

As of 2007, 40 of the 50 U.S. states had laws requiring “net metering,” which provides the legal infrastructure for individual households to generate power and, if they have a surplus, sell it to the power grid at market rates, usually about 6 to 8 cents per kilowatt-hour. In areas with good wind conditions, a household windmill (costing between $10,000 and $25,000 to install) can generate power at that cost. Solar power (at 25 to 35 cents per kilowatt-hour) is still too expensive to be profitable, but CSP may change that. Technological improvements in solar technology may also bring down the cost. Some farmers have been installing devices that turn hog manure into methane gas, a double winner because the

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process not only produces energy, but also removes a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. There is every reason to expect that nonfossil fuels will become more economical in the future. Wind power, for example, had cost an average of 80 cents per kilowatt-hour in 1980 and 10 cents in 1991. By 2006, it was competitive with many fossil fuel sources at 3 to 4 cents per kilowatthour at sites with the best wind conditions; other sites can range up to 15 to 29 cents per kilowatt-hour. Materials used in turbines have improved, and they are now larger and more efficient—125 meters rotor diameter as compared to 10 meters in the 1970s. Solar power costs as much as $70,000 to $80,000 in 2007 to install a 10-kilowatt household system and would take 50 years to pay for itself without tax subsidies. However, the federal government in the United States (as well as other countries, notably Japan and Germany) grant tax breaks for solar power that can lower its payback to about 10 years. The Internal Revenue Service beginning in 2006 allowed a 30 percent tax credit for solar projects. This is photovoltaic technology. CSP is poised to lower the cost of solar power dramatically. CSP by 2007 was generating power at 9 to 12 cents per kilowatt-hour before subsidies. BIOMASS: VERY BASIC STUFF

Biomass fuel is very basic stuff. Usually cities burn organic garbage and extract methane (some pig farms do the same with manure), but as of 2007 it was the biggest source of alternative fuel in the United States. Companies use biomass generation as part of their industrial processes. Weyerhauser, for one, generates electricity with wood waste combined with by-products from pulp mills that once were discarded as useless. Such sources have been generating power for 5 to 10 cents per kilowatt-hour. The E3 Biofuels Mead LLC plant in Mead, Nebraska, feeds manure from 30,000 cattle on an adjoining feedlot into an on-site facility that provides fuel for an ethanol plant. The proprietors of this plant are not shy about their role in protecting the environment and fighting global warming. It’s name is “Genesis,” and it is touted as the first “closed loop” ethanol plant in the world, utilizing its own fuel to reduce its inhouse carbon footprint to nearly zero, meanwhile producing 25 million gallons of ethanol a year for sale. The plant also uses as fuel methane emissions that would have gone into the atmosphere. With all of these strategies, the Mead plant produces more than 15 times more fuel than a gasoline refinery or a corn-ethanol plant, according to Dennis Langley, E3’s chairman. “This is a revolutionary step forward,” Langley believes

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(Hord, 2007, D-1). By 2008, however, the plant had filed for bankruptcy, citing rising costs. Meanwhile, a project was underway at the National Zoo in Washington, D.C., that could eventually convert animal waste into fuel, Beard said. GEOTHERMAL: ENERGY SAVINGS FROM THE EARTH

Geothermal could produce 10 percent of U.S. electricity by 2050, according to a report by a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2007, geothermal was feasible at 6 to 10 cents a kilowatt-hour, without subsidies; Harrison Elementary School in Omaha, among others, is being remodeled to use it. This is one example of several, just in one small part of Omaha. Warm springs are not required for geothermal energy. Thermal contrast between earth and atmosphere is enough, especially in places such as Omaha with large contrast in seasonal temperatures. The Earth’s temperature is about 56◦ F the year round; by circulating water through pipes above and below ground, as much as 70 percent can be saved on heating and cooling costs. When air temperature is close to that of the Earth, the need is minimal; the greater the contrast, the greater the need, and the more energy is conserved. The system uses underground pipes filled with fluid that pull heat from buildings in the summer and release it into underground soil. In winter, the pipes distribute heat in the building that has been gathered under ground. The principle is the same as that used by traditional residential heat pumps, but 30 to 50 percent more efficient. (This means that it uses 30 to 50 percent less energy than a conventional furnace.) The geothermal pumps use the ground, whereas the residential pumps use the air. Nationwide, installation of geothermal pumps has been growing at double-digit rates, according to John Kelly, executive director of the Geothermal Heat-pump Consortium in Washington, D.C. (Gaarder, 2007, A-2). A CARBON TAX: CHARGING FOR CARBON PRODUCTION

National taxation systems are being changed in some countries, mainly in Europe, to discourage production of greenhouse gases. French President Jacques Chirac in 2007 demanded that the United States sign both the Kyoto climate protocol and a future agreement that would take effect when it expired in 2012. He warned that if the United States did not sign the agreements, a carbon tax across Europe on imports from nations that have not signed the Kyoto treaty could be enacted to force compliance. “A carbon tax is inevitable,” Chirac said. “If it is European,

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and I believe it will be European, then it will all the same have a certain influence because it means that all the countries that do not accept the minimum obligations will be obliged to pay” (Bennhold, 2007). In the meantime, voters in Boulder, Colorado, home of the state’s largest university, late in November 2006 approved the United States’ first local carbon tax. The tax, based on electricity usage, took effect on April 1, 2007; it adds $16 a year to an average homeowner’s electricity bill and $46 for businesses. The tax is collected by Boulder’s main gas and electric utility, Xcel Energy, an agent for Boulder’s Office of Environmental Affairs. “The tax revenue will fund increased energy efficiency in homes and buildings, switch to renewable energy and reduce vehicle miles traveled,” the city’s environmental affairs manager, Jonathan Koehn, said (Kelley, 2006). The Boulder environmental sustainability coordinator, Sarah Van Pelt, said residents who used alternative sources of electricity like wind power would receive a discount on the tax based on the amount of the alternative power used. A total of 5,600 residents and 210 businesses used wind power in 2006, Van Pelt said (Kelley, 2006). Oregon in 2001 began to assess a 3 percent fee on electricity bills by the state’s two largest investor-owned utilities. Revenue from this tax is transferred to the Energy Trust of Oregon, a nonprofit organization, rather than the state government. The trust distributes cash incentives to businesses and residents for using alternative sources such as solar and wind power, biomass energy, and structural improvements to improve efficiency. FARMING TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENTS

Rattan Lal, a professor of soil science at Ohio State University, has asserted that the atmosphere’s load of carbon dioxide could be greatly reduced through several relatively simple changes in farming technology. Contributions of farming to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been increasing with rising populations. Carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere via plowing, so Lal believes that reducing the depth of furrows would significantly reduce the amount of carbon dioxide introduced into the atmosphere by agriculture. During mid-2003, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced plans to give incentives to farmers for management practices that keep carbon in the soil. For the first time, the USDA began to factor reduction of greenhouse gas emissions into soil conservation programs by giving priority to farmers who reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides. Such programs represented $3.9 billion in federal spending during the 2003–2004 fiscal year. Farmers were

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encouraged to use no or low-tillage methods, as well as crop rotation, buffer strips, and other practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as soil erosion. Such practices were expected to retain 12 million tons of greenhouse gases by 2012. Farming with an eye to carbon limitations would utilize soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growth of energy crops on spare lands. Intensive use of such practices, according to one estimate, could offset fossil fuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons of carbon per year, or 5 to 15 percent of the global fossil fuel emissions. Tim O’Riordan of the Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environmental Research said, “We have to put sustainable development at the heart of businesses such as fish farming and agriculture. We need agricultural stewardship schemes that have incentives for farmers to produce according to sustainable principles, which in turn will deliver healthy soil, water and wild life. This, in turn, should offer jobs in recreation and education for eco-care. We also need the involvement of the local community to ensure that all acts of stewardship have neighborhood understanding and support” (Urquhart and Gilchrist, 2002, 9). SIGNALS FROM EUROPE

Sweden and Norway have some of the highest liquor taxes in the world, which have led to a large amount of smuggling from Denmark mainly over an international bridge near Copenhagen. Until recently, contraband seized at Malmo by the Tullverket (Swedish Customs) was poured down the drain. Now, however, in today’s very green Sweden, each year a million bottles of illicit liquor are trucked to a new high-tech plant in Link¨oping (about 75 miles south of Stockholm) that manufactures biogas fuel for automobiles, as well as fertilizer. The plant also accepts human and packing plant waste—part of Sweden’s drive to become the world’s first oil-free society by the year 2050. In Sweden, biofuel was being used by 2007 to power buses, taxis, garbage trucks, and private cars, as well as a “biogas train” that runs between Link¨oping and V¨astervik on the southeast coast. Sweden has become very creative at finding ways to replace oil products with things that used to be wasted. To replace oil, Scandinavian countries are using what they have in abundance: Iceland, geothermal resources; Sweden, wood; Denmark, wind, often using simple, practical, and elegant applications available now, at modest cost. Iceland plans by

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2050 to power all of its passenger cars and boats with hydrogen made from electricity drawn from local, renewable resources. In Iceland, 85 percent of the country’s 290,000 people use geothermal energy to heat their homes; Iceland’s government, working with Shell and Daimler-Chrysler, in 2003 began to convert Reykjavik’s city buses from internal combustion to fuel cell engines, using hydroelectricity to electrolyze water and produce hydrogen. The next stage is to convert the country’s automobiles, then its fishing fleet. These conversions are part of a systemic plan to divorce Iceland’s economy from fossil fuels. U.S. STATES ACT ON AUTOMOBILE EFFICIENCY

The California Air Resources Board, defying the automobile industry, voted unanimously during late September 2004 to approve the world’s most stringent rules reducing automobiles’ greenhouse gas emissions. Under the regulations, the automobile industry must cut exhaust from cars and light trucks by 25 percent and from larger trucks and sport-utility vehicles by 18 percent. The industry will have until 2009 to begin introducing cleaner technology and will have until 2016 to meet the new exhaust standards. Because of the state’s large population, California’s plan for sharp cuts in automotive emissions of greenhouse gases could lead most of states on the East and West Coasts of the United States to require similar emissions cuts. In turn, these requirements may cause the automakers to adopt the same standards for cleaner, more fuel-efficient vehicles in all the states. The only way to cut global warming emissions from cars is to use less fossil fuel. Because of this limitation, proposed cuts in legally allowable emissions would, as a side effect, force automakers to increase fuel economy by roughly 35 to 45 percent. California’s plan requires automakers to cut greenhouse gas emissions from their new vehicles by 29.2 percent over a decade, phasing in gradually from the 2009 to the 2015 model years. During 2004, the governments of New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Connecticut said that they intended to follow California’s automobile rules instead of the federal government’s. New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine quickly adopted California rules. “Let’s work to reduce greenhouse gases by adopting the carbon-dioxide emission standards for motor vehicles which were recently proposed by the State of California,” New York Governor George E. Pataki said in his state-of-the-state address during 2003. These seven states and California account for almost 26 percent of the U.S. auto market, according to R. L. Polk, a company that tracks

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automobile registrations (Hakim, 2004, C-4). Automakers from Detroit to Tokyo believe that these states, along with Canada, could form a powerful bloc on automobile regulation to cut emissions of greenhouse gasses. “It would be a logistical and engineering challenge, and a costly problem,” said Dave Barthmuss, a spokesman for General Motors. “It’s more cost-effective for us to have one set of emissions everywhere” (Hakim, 2004, C-4). “If they only want to make one car,” said Roland Hwang, a senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council, “[c]learly it should be a clean car, and that’s the California car” (Hakim, 2004, C-4). BUILDING CODE CHANGES

Considerable reduction of global warming may be possible through wise use of new technology to improve the energy efficiency of dwellings, factories, and offices. Energy consumption of heating and air conditioning systems could be reduced by as much as 90 percent in new buildings, for example, with modern insulation, triple-glazed windows with tight seals, and passive solar design (Speth, 2004, 65). On January 1, 2003, Australia changed its national building code with the explicit purpose of reducing energy consumption. Amendment 12 of the Building Code of Australia includes a range of measures appropriate for different climate zones of Australia that address wall, ceiling, floor, and glazing thermal performance to avoid or reduce the use of energy for artificial heating and cooling. This is achieved by utilizing passive solar heating where it is available; using natural ventilation and internal air movement to avoid or reduce the use of artificial cooling; sealing houses in some climates to reduce energy loss through leakage; insulation to reduce heat loss from water piping of central heating systems; and insulation and sealing to reduce energy loss through the walls of ductwork associated with heating and air-conditioning systems Danish building codes enacted in 1979 (and tightened several times since) also require thick home insulation and tightly sealed windows. Between 1975 and 2001, Denmark’s national heating bill fell 20 percent, even as the amount of heated space increased by 30 percent (Abboud, 2007, A-13). Denmark’s gross domestic product has doubled on stable energy usage during the last 30 years. The average Dane now uses 6,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity a year, less than half of the U.S. average (13,300 kilowatt-hours). Surplus heat from Danish power plants is piped to nearby homes, via insulated pipes, in a system called “co-generation” or “district heating.” This system uses heat that was once wasted at the power plants to heat

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residences. This change required reconstruction of Denmark’s energy infrastructure, as power plants were built closer to homes. Streets were torn up to install the pipes that carry heat. In the mid-1970s, Denmark had 15 large power plants; it now has several hundred. By 2007, 6 in 10 Danish homes were heated this way, and it is less expensive than oil or gas (Abboud, 2007, A-13). IS THE KYOTO PROTOCOL A BAND-AID OR A DEAD LETTER?

Global greenhouse gas emissions are rising and evidences of a warming planet are developing much more quickly than world diplomacy has been able to address them. The snail’s pace nature of international diplomacy combines with the fact that we feel the results of fossil fuel effluvia perhaps 50 years after the actual emissions through a complex set of natural feedbacks involving thermal inertia. Thus, nature provides direct evidence of heat long after the actions that cause it, requiring our societies to act before this evidence is directly available. Given these circumstances, The Kyoto Protocol provides little help, even though its approval by Russia in September 2004, produced worldwide implementation on paper. Russia thus joined 124 other countries in ratifying the protocol and, with its 17.5 percent share of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions, raised the world percentage to slightly more than 60 percent, above the 55 percent required to bring Kyoto into force. Seven years after its negotiation in 1997, however, the only sizable countries that have came close to meeting Kyoto Protocol target emission reductions have been Great Britain and Germany. Most other signatories have not met their goals, and most third world countries with rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions (India and China among them) are not bound by its provisions. The Kyoto Protocol has become more of a political rallying cry than a serious challenge to global warming. Even if the protocol were fully implemented, a projected temperature rise of 2◦ C by 2050 would be reduced only by 0.07◦ C, according to calculations by atmospheric scientist Thomas M. L. Wigley. In other words, the Kyoto goals are only a small fraction of the reduction in emissions required if worldwide temperature levels are to be stabilized during the twenty-first century and afterwards (Wolf, 2000, 27). As governments around the world argued over climate diplomacy (and the United States, which produces more than one-fifth of the world’s greenhouse gases, ignored the Kyoto Protocol) global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion increased by 13 percent above the 1990 levels by the year 2000, mainly due to large increases

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in developing nations (led by China’s and India’s booming economies) and substantial growth in the United States and other Western industrialized nations, according to statistics compiled by the International Energy Agency. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased between 2000 and 2005 at record levels, mainly because China is industrializing with dirty coal. The increase between 1990 and 2000 would have been higher, except for the collapse of former state socialist economies in Russia and Eastern European nations during the period (Holly, 2002). Carbon dioxide emissions for the period rose by 17.8 percent in the United States, from 4.8 billion tons in 1990 to 5.7 billion tons in 2000, while Western European emissions rose by 3.9 percent. As a result of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the resulting economic collapse in former Soviet nations and Eastern Europe, carbon dioxide emissions in these nations fell from 3.7 billion tons in 1990 to 2.6 billion tons, a drop of 30.6 percent (Holly, 2002). Emissions rose in all major economic sectors, including energy, transport, industry and agriculture. An exception was waste management, where emissions declined slightly. The figures did not include emissions and removals from land-use change and forestry (Rich Countries, 2003). Greenhouse gas emissions in the highly industrialized countries as a whole rose by 8 percent from 1990 to 2000. According to a report, the European Union’s total emissions decreased by 3.5 percent from 1990 to 2000. Emissions increased in most other highly industrialized countries, including 5 percent in New Zealand, 11 percent in Japan, 14 percent in the United States, 18 percent in Australia, and 20 percent in Canada (Rich Countries, 2003). TREE PLANTING AND GLOBAL WARMING: CAN NEW FORESTS MAKE WARMING WORSE?

Carbon dioxide reduction from planting of forests has been proposed (and promoted in the Kyoto Protocol), even as some scientists have asserted that forests sometimes contribute to global warming. For example, “[t]he albedo [reflectivity] of a forested landscape is generally lower than that of cultivated land, especially when snow is lying. . . . In many boreal forest areas, the positive forcing induced by decreases in albedo can offset the negative forcing that is expected from carbon sequestration” (Betts, 2000, 187). According to this analysis, planting more forests in northern areas may actually worsen the greenhouse effect. Researchers have used climate models to forecast changes in forest cover under warming conditions. “We were hoping to find that growing

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forests in the United States would help slow global warming,” said Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology. “But if we are not careful, growing forests could make global warming even worse” (Temperate Forests, 2005). According to this research, tropical forests aid cooling by evaporating large amounts of water, but northern forests warm the Earth because they absorb sunlight without releasing large amounts of moisture. In one simulation, the researchers covered much of the northern hemisphere (above 20◦ latitude) with forests and saw a jump in surface air temperature of more than 6◦ F. The rise is sharpest in the far north where dark vegetative cover replaces fields of snow and ice that reflected most incoming sunlight (Temperate Forests, 2005). Other research indicates that older, wild forests are far better at removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than young trees. One such analysis, published in the journal Science, was completed by Dr. Ernst-Detlef Schulze, the director of the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany, and two other scientists at the institute. The study provided an important new argument for protecting oldgrowth forests. The scientists said that their study provides a reminder that the main goal should be to reduce carbon dioxide emissions at the source, i.e., smokestacks and tailpipes. “In old forests, huge amounts of carbon taken from the air are locked away not only in the tree trunks and branches, but also deep in the soil, where the carbon can stay for many centuries,” said Kevin R. Gurney, a research scientist at Colorado State University. When such a forest is cut, he said, almost all of that stored carbon is eventually returned to the air in the form of carbon dioxide. “It took a huge amount of time to get that carbon sequestered [captured] in those soils,” he said, “So if you release it, even if you plant again, it’ll take equally long to get it back” (Revkin, September 22, 2000, A-23). The German study, together with other similar research, produced a picture of mature forests that differed sharply from long-held beliefs in forestry, Schulze said. He said that aging forests were long perceived to be in a state of decay that releases as much carbon dioxide as it captures. Soils in undisturbed tropical rain forests, Siberian woods, and some German national parks contain enormous amounts of carbon derived from fallen leaves, twigs, and buried roots that can bind to soil particles and remain stored for 1,000 years or more. When such forests are cut, the trees’ roots decay and soil is disrupted, releasing the carbon dioxide (Revkin, September 22, 2000, A-23; Schulze et al. 2000, 2058). “In contrast to the [carbon] sink management proposed in the Kyoto

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Protocol, which favors young forest stands, we argue that preservation of natural old-growth forests may have a larger effect on the carbon cycle than promotion of re-growth,” the German researchers said (Schulze et al., 2000, 2058). Instead of reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the Kyoto Protocol emphasizes on new growth at the expense of established forests. PROBLEMS WITH OCEAN IRON FERTILIZATION

Should the oceans be seeded with large amounts of iron ore that will increase the growth of phytoplankton that will consume carbon dioxide? The idea has attracted some support among corporations and foundations looking for ways to minimize the effects of carbon dioxide without changing the world’s basic energy generation mix. The idea is simple on its face: iron stimulates the growth of phytoplankton that absorbs carbon dioxide. Ulf Riebesell, a marine biologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany, believes that iron seeding of the oceans could remove 3 to 5 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year, or about 10 to 20 percent of humangenerated emissions (Schlermeier, 2003, 110). Patents have been issued for ocean fertilization, and demonstration projects undertaken (Boyd et al., 2000, 695–702; Watson et al., 2000, 730–733). Nearly half of the Earth’s photosynthesis is performed by phytoplankton in the world’s seas and oceans (Chisholm, 2000, 685). In the equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans, Sallie W. Chisholm, a marine biologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote in Nature that it “is possible to stimulate the productivity of hundreds of square kilometers of ocean with a few barrels of fertilizer” (Chisholm, 2000, 686). Atsushi Tsuda and colleagues have studied iron fertilization and have found that, under some circumstances, iron fertilization can dramatically increase phytoplankton mass (Tsuda et al., 2003, 958–961). In an experiment conducted between Tasmania (near southeastern Australia) and Antarctica, researchers confirmed that vast stretches of the world’s southern oceans are primed to explode with photosynthesis but lack only iron. The researchers, who described their work in Nature, said it is too soon to start large-scale iron seeding because the new experiment raised as many questions as it answered. At best, they said, iron seeding would absorb only a small amount of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. These scientists also said that their experimental bloom of plankton was not tracked long enough to determine whether the carbon harvested from the air sank into the deep sea or was again released into the

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environment as carbon dioxide. “There are still fundamental scientific questions that need to be addressed before anyone can responsibly promote iron fertilization as a climate-control tactic,” said Kenneth H. Coale, an oceanographer who has helped design studies of iron’s effects in the tropical Pacific (Revkin, October 12, 2000, A-18). Iron fertilization has some potential problems. First, no way exists to measure the amount of carbon absorbed by phytoplankton. Additionally, the algae produce dimethyl sulphide, which plays a role in cloud formation. Phytoplankton also increases the amount of sunlight absorbed by ocean water, as well as heat energy. It also produces compounds such as methyl halides, which play a role in stratospheric ozone depletion. The iron could promote the growth of toxic algae also which may kill other marine life and change the chemistry of ocean water by removing oxygen. “The oceans are a tightly linked system, one part of which cannot be changed without resonating through the whole system,” said Chisholm. “There is no free lunch” (Schlermeier, 2003, 110). So much iron may be required to produce the desired effect that fertilization of this type will never be commercially useful. “The experiments enabled us to make an initial determination about the amount of iron that would be required and the size of the area to be fertilized,” said Ken O. Buesseler of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who coauthored a study of the idea. “Based on the studies to date, the amount of iron needed and [the] area of ocean that would be impacted is too large to support the commercial application of iron to the ocean as a solution to our greenhouse gas problem,” he explained. “It may not be an inexpensive or practical option” (Iron Link, 2003). Given the limits of present technology, one study estimated that an area much larger than the Southern Ocean (all the Earth’s oceans from 50◦ south latitude to Antarctica) would have to be fertilized to remove 30 percent of the carbon dioxide that human activity presently injects into the atmosphere. Thus, according to this study, “ocean iron fertilization may not be a cheap and attractive option if impacts on carbon export and sequestration are as low as observed to date” (Buesseler and Boyd, 2003, 68). Despite its problems, iron fertilization is considered possible by some scientists who have fed tons of iron into the Southern Ocean. They reported evidence during 2004 that stimulating the growth of phytoplankton in this way may strengthen the oceans’ use as a carbon sink. In a report published on April 16, 2004, in Science, ocean biologists and chemists from more than 20 research centers said they triggered two

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huge blooms of phytoplankton that turned the ocean green for weeks and consumed hundreds, perhaps thousands, of tons of carbon dioxide. “These findings would be encouraging to those considering iron fertilization as a global geo-engineering strategy,” said Coale. The scientists involved in this experiment, however, are said to “realize that this looked only skin deep at the functioning of ocean ecosystems and much more needs to be understood before we recommend such a strategy on a global scale” (Hoffman, 2004). Other researchers disagree strongly. “From my work, I don’t think this could solve a significant fraction of our greenhouse-gas problem while causing unknown ecological consequences,” said Buesseler (Hoffman, 2004). NUCLEAR POWER AS “CLEAN” ENERGY?

James Lovelock, who pioneered measurement of trace gases in the atmosphere and developed the idea of the Gaia hypothesis, has become a staunch advocate of nuclear power to bridge the “gap” between fossil fuels and other sources of power (Lovelock, 2006). The hypothesis, named after the Greek goddess of the Earth, has been defined by Lovelock as a view that the planet acts as a living organism to maintain “life on Earth [that] actively keeps the surface conditions always favorable for whatever is the contemporary ensemble of organisms” (Volk, 2006, 869). Lovelock, faced with scientific criticism, has since reformulated his school of thought as a more abstract theory. Lovelock now asserts that human manipulation of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere has stirred Gaia to declare war on humanity in which she “now threatens us with the ultimate penalty of extinction” (Volk, 2006, 869). Such language strikes many other scientists as metaphorical and anthropomorphic (using human behavior to define natural processes). Pressed, Lovelock agreed that the idea was a metaphor, with limited literal meaning (Volk, 2006, 869). In The Revenge of Gaia, Lovelock asserts that because solar, wind, or biomass will take too much room (a quarter million wind turbines, for example, to provide for the power needs of the United Kingdom), nuclear power should be used until nuclear fusion and more efficient renewables are available. He sees nuclear waste as a small price to pay for nuclear fuel’s value as a carbon-free, proven source of power. Fears of radiation are overblown, Lovelock contends. (Lovelock also encourages large-scale “geo-engineering” solutions, such as sun-blocking reflectors in space.) Tyler Volk, reviewing the book in Nature, concluded, “Read this book for its thoughtful sections on global energy and climate, but steer clear of its web of Old Testament-like prophecy” (Volk, 2006, 870).

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Barry Commoner, one of the founders of the modern environmental movement, opposes Lovelock’s position on nuclear power strongly: This is a good example of shortsighted environmentalism. It superficially makes sense to say, “Here’s a way of producing energy without carbon dioxide.” But every activity that increases the amount of radioactivity to which we are exposed is idiotic. There has to be a life-and-death reason to do it. I mean, we haven’t solved the problem of waste yet. We still have used fuel sitting all over the place. I think the fact that some people who have established a reputation as environmentalists have adopted this is appalling. (Vinciguerra, 2007)

DEEP-SEA INJECTION OF CARBON DIOXIDE: EFFECTS ON LIFE

Disposal of carbon dioxide in the deeper parts of oceans has been proposed as one method of reducing global warming. However, many proposals to inject human-generated carbon dioxide into the oceans ignore its possible effects on life at those levels. Brad A. Seibel and Patrick J. Walsh examined these effects, finding that increased deep-water carbon dioxide levels result in decreases of seawater pH (increasing acidity), which can be harmful to sea creatures, “as has been demonstrated for the effects of acid rain on freshwater fish” (Seibel and Walsh, 2001, 319). They found that “a drop in arterial pH by just 0.2 would reduce bound oxygen in the deep-sea crustacean Glyphocrangon vicaria by 25 per cent” (Seibel and Walsh, 2001, 320). The same drop in arterial pH would reduce bound oxygen in the mid-water shrimp Gnathophausia ingens by 50 percent. “Through various feedback mechanisms, the ocean circulation could change and affect the retention time of carbon dioxide injected into the deep ocean, thereby indirectly altering oceanic carbon storage and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration,” said Atul Jain, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (Global Warming Could Hamper, 2002). “Sequestering carbon in the deep ocean is, at best, a technique to buy time,” Jain concluded. “Carbon dioxide dumped in the oceans won’t stay there forever. Eventually it will percolate to the surface and into the atmosphere” (Global Warming Could Hamper, 2002). By 2002, tourism promoters, commercial fishermen, environmentalists, and sports groups had united in the Hawaiian Islands to oppose experiments in carbon dioxide sequestration off the island of Kauai. The effort has drawn support from Chevron/Texaco, General Motors, Ford, and ExxonMobil. Opponents fear that it will increase the acidity of the local ocean water and imperil animal and plant life. The U.S.

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Department of Energy had allowed the companies to begin work without an environmental impact statement because it asserted that human beings would not be affected. Congressional representative Patsy Mink of Hawaii said that “Hawaii’s ocean environment is too precious to put at risk for an experiment of this kind” (Dunne, 2002, 2). The same company that sought to inject carbon dioxide into the sea off Hawaii also was lobbying to deposit 5.4 tons of pure CO2 deep under the North Sea near Norway. This experiment was set to begin during the summer of 2002 until environmentalists campaigned successfully to stop it. According to an Environment News Service report, The Norwegian oil firm Statoil already was injecting roughly 1 million tons of CO2 per year into the rock strata of an offshore oilfield in the North Sea, but no one has yet tried sequestration in the oceans. Led by the Norwegian Institute for Water Research, a coalition including United States, Japanese, Canadian and Australian organizations was planning to inject five tons of liquid CO2 at 800 meters depth off the coast of Norway (Liquid CO2 , 2002). Norway’s Pollution Control Authority granted the project a discharge permit in early July 2002, subject to approval by the environment ministry. “The sea is not a dumping ground. It’s illegal to dump nuclear or toxic waste at sea, and it’s illegal to dump CO2 —the fossil fuel industry’s waste,” said Truls Gulowsen, Greenpeace Norway climate campaigner (Liquid CO2 , 2002). A last-minute veto from Norway’s environment minister Borge Brendeon on August 26, 2002, stopped the project. “The possible future use of the ocean as a storage place for CO2 is controversial . . . [It] could violate current international rules concerning sea waters,” said Environment Minister Boerge Brende (Norway Says No, 2002).

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The U.S. House of Representatives Going Carbon-Neutral The U.S. House of Representatives in 2007 made plans to become carbonneutral. The Chief Administrative Officer of the House, Dan Beard, who was directed in March 2007 by Speaker Nancy Pelosi to find ways to make the House side of the Capitol carbon-neutral, has worked to omit coal from the fuel mix that heats and cools the U.S. Capitol and nearby buildings. In addition, Beard’s office also installed compact fluorescent bulbs and dimmers in 12,000 desk lamps in the House’s office buildings. Next, the House would buy its electricity from renewable sources such as wind and solar through an arrangement with Pepco, a Washington, D.C., electric

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utility, Beard said. After the House replaces coal with natural gas at the power plant, it will reduce its annual carbon dioxide emissions by 75 percent. To neutralize the remaining 25 percent and become carbon-neutral by 2010, the House may buy offset credits or invest in conservation projects, Beard said (Layton, 2007, A-17). The Capitol power plant, four blocks from the House’s office buildings, has burned coal since it opened in 1910 and is the only remaining coalburning facility in the District. The Capitol power plant (which produces no electricity) generates steam and chilled water to heat and cool the Capitol, the Supreme Court, the Library of Congress, and 19 other structures. Coal accounts for 49 percent of its output; the rest is generated by natural gas and oil (Layton, 2007, A-17).

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Corporate Sustainability Officers Some companies are appointing “chief sustainability officers.” These officers, who also may hold the title “vice president for environmental affairs,” join with vendors and customers to create and market green products. Dow Chemical’s first chief sustainability officer, David E. Kepler, has been meeting Dow’s technology, manufacturing, and finance leaders about alternative fuels and green products. “We usually agree,” Mr. Kepler said. “But if a critical environmental issue is in dispute, I’ll prevail” (Deutsch, 2007). Linda J. Fisher, the chief sustainability officer at DuPont, weighed in against purchase of a company that was not in a “sustainable” business. “We’re building sustainability into the acquisition criteria,” she said. When two business chiefs at General Electric opposed the cost of developing environment-friendly products, Jeffrey R. Immelt, GE’s chairman, gave Lorraine Bolsinger, vice president of GE’s Ecomagination business, the research money. “I have an open door to get projects funded,” she said (Deutsch, 2007). Stephen Lane, who jokes that he is the “Al Gore of Citigroup,” is the executive vice president whose full-time job is coaxing energy savings out of the 340,000-employee, worldwide financial services giant. His tasks range from an inventory of energy use in all of the company’s facilities to setting policies that govern everything from installing solar energy and timed lighting in bank branches to convincing employees to switch off lights that are not being used and climb stairs instead of using escalators, which are now stopped during nonbusiness hours. “What you can’t measure, you can’t manage,” he says (Carlton, 2007, B-1). Other banks are taking similar measures. HSBC, for example, has opened a “green” prototype branch in Greece, New York, which its 400 branches in the United States will soon

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emulate. Lane oversees a $10 billion Citigroup plan to reduce its carbon footprint to 10 percent below the 2005 levels by the year 2011 (Carlton, 2007, B-8). By the end of 2007, more than 2,400 companies in the United States were reporting their carbon emissions and energy costs through the Carbon Disclosure Project, a nonprofit group of 315 institutional investors that control $41 trillion worth of assets. Some are household names, such as Coca-Cola, and Wal-Mart, which has begun to require its suppliers to report and reduce their carbon footprints. Dell, the computer maker, announced in 2008 that it will begin to neutralize the carbon impact of its operations around the world (Investors, 2007, D-1). By the end of 2007, some of the world’s largest multinational companies, among them Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Tesco (the British grocery chain), and Nestle SA were requiring their suppliers to disclose carbon dioxide emissions and global warming mitigation strategies. The companies are among several that have formed the Supply Chain Leadership Coalition that cooperates with the London-based Carbon Disclosure Project. Eventually, products may be labeled with carbon emission information. In 2007, Cadbury Schweppes was making plans to print such information on its chocolate bars. At about the same time, Wal-Mart began a similar project by asking Oakhurst Dairy, of Portland, Maine, to measure the carbon footprint of a case of milk (Spencer, 2007, A-7).

Ss “CREATION CARE:” BIBLICAL STEWARDSHIP OF THE EARTH

The Bible’s content is diverse enough to be quoted in almost any context. The same Good Book that commands us to multiply and subdue the Earth also may be quoted to commend stewardship of the natural world. The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (2001) has done as much in its new “plea for dialogue, prudence, and the common good,” its consensus statement on “global climate change.” The statement continued, “How are we to fulfill God’s call to be stewards of creation in an age when we may have the capacity to alter that creation significantly, and perhaps irrevocably? We believe our response to global climate change should be a sign of our respect for God’s creation” (U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001). The bishops’ statement continued, Global climate is by its very nature a part of the planetary commons. The Earth’s atmosphere encompasses all people, creatures, and habitats. . . . Stewardship [is] defined in this case as the ability to exercise moral responsibility to care for the environment. . . . Our Catholic tradition speaks of a “social mortgage” on property and, in this context, calls us to be

Solutions good stewards of the Earth. . . . Stewardship requires a careful protection of the environment and calls us to use our intelligence ‘to discover the earth’s productive potential and the many different ways in which human needs can be satisfied. (U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001, quoting John Paul II)

This statement asserted that responsibility weighs more heavily on those with the power to act because the threats are often the greatest for those who lack similar power, namely vulnerable poor peoples as well as future generations. According to reports of the IPCC, significant delays in addressing climate change may compound the problem and make future remedies more difficult, painful, and costly. On the other hand, said the bishops, the impact of prudent actions today can potentially improve the situation over time, avoiding more painful but necessary actions in the future (U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001). The bishops believe that passing along the problem of global climate change to future generations as a result of our delay, indecision, or selfinterest would be easy. However, the statement said, “We simply cannot leave this problem for the children of tomorrow. As stewards of their heritage, we have an obligation to respect their dignity and to pass on their natural inheritance, so that their lives are protected and, if possible, made better than our own” (U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001). “Grateful for the gift of creation,” says the statement, “[w]e invite Catholics and men and women of good will in every walk of life to consider with us the moral issues raised by the environmental crisis. . . . These are matters of powerful urgency and major consequence. They constitute an exceptional call to conversion. As individuals, as institutions, as a people, we need a change of heart to preserve and protect the planet for our children and for generations yet unborn.” (U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001, quoting Renewing the Earth, n.d.). Early in 2006, despite opposition from some of their colleagues, 86 evangelical Christian leaders decided to support an initiative to combat global warming, saying, “[M]illions of people could die in this century because of climate change, most of them our poorest global neighbors” (Goodstein, 2006). Signers included presidents of 39 evangelical colleges, leaders of aid groups and churches, including the Salvation Army, and pastors of some mega-churches, including Rick Warren, author of the best seller The Purpose-Driven Life. “Many of us have required considerable convincing before becoming persuaded that climate change is a real problem and that it ought to matter to us as Christians. But now we have seen and heard enough” (Goodstein, 2006).

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When Pigs Fly? Will pigs fly? In the world of biomass fuel, they might. By 2007, the U.S. Department of Defense and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration were funding exploratory projects into biofuels for jet airplanes. Syntroleum was providing the DOD with jet fuel derived from animal fats supplied by Tyson Foods, Inc. Tyson is the world’s largest producer of chicken, beef, and pork, producing prodigious amounts of animal fats, such as beef tallow, pork lard, chicken fat, and greases, all of which may someday be used as fuel. The two companies have planned a factory at a thus far undesignated location in the U.S. Southwest that after 2010 will produce 75 million gallons of jet fuel per year. According to Syntroleum, the U.S. Air Force plans to certify all its aircraft to run on alternative fuels by 2010 and wants 50 percent of its fuel to come from domestic alternative sources by 2016 (Fueling Jets, 2007).

Ss REFERENCES Abboud, Leila. “How Denmark Paved Way to Energy Independence.” The Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2007, A-1, A-13. Barrett, Joe. “Ethanol Reeps a Backlash in Small Midwestern Towns.” The Wall Street Journal, March 23, 2007, A-1, A-8. Barringer, Felicity. “In Gamble, Calif. Tries to Curb Greenhouse Gases.” The New York Times, September 15, 2006. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/15/us/ 15energy.html. Barta. Patrick. “Crop Prices Soar, Pushing Up Cost of Food Globally.” The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2007, A-1, A-9. Bennhold, Katrin. “France Tells U.S. to Sign Climate Pacts or Face Tax.” The New York Times, February 1, 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/01/world/ europe/01climate.html. Betts, Richard A. “Offset of the Potential Carbon Sink from Boreal Forestation by Decreases in Surface Albedo.” Nature 408 (November 9, 2000): 187–190. Boyd, Philip W., Andrew J. Watson, Cliff S. Law, Edward R. Abraham, Thomas Trull, Rob Murdoch, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Andrew R. Bowie, K. O. Buesseler, Hoe Chang, Matthew Charette, Peter Croot, Ken Downing, Russell Frew, Mark Gall, Mark Hadfield, Julie Hall, Mike Harvey, Greg Jameson, Julie LaRoche, Malcolm Liddicoat, Roger Ling, Maria T. Maldonado, R. Michael McKay, Scott Nodder, Stu Pickmere, Rick Pridmore, Steve Rintoul, Karl Safi, Philip Sutton, Robert Strzepek, Kim Tanneberger, Suzanne Turner, Anya Waite, and John Zeldis. “A Mesoscale Phytonplankton Bloom in the Polar Southern Ocean Stimulated by Iron Fertilization.” Nature 407 (October 12, 2000): 695–702. Buesseler, Ken O., and Philip W. Boyd. “Will Ocean Fertilization Work?” Science 300 (April 4, 2003): 67–68.

Solutions Carlton, Jim. “Citicorp Tries Banking on the Natural Kind of Green.” The Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2007, B-1, B-8. Chisholm, Sallie W. “Stirring Times in the Southern Ocean.” Nature 407 (October 12, 2000): 685–686. Coy, Peter. “The Hydrogen Balm? Author Jeremy Rifkin Sees a Better, Post-Petroleum World.” Business Week, September 30, 2002, 83. Daviss, Bennett. “Green Sky Thinking: Could Maverick Technologies Turn Aviation into an Eco-success Story? Yes, But Time Is Running Out.” New Scientist, February 24, 2007, 32–38. Deutsch, Claudia. “Companies Giving Green an Office.” The New York Times, July 3, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/03/business/03sustain.html? pagewanted=print. Dunne, Nancy. “Climate Change Research Sparks Hawaii Protests.” Financial Times (London), June 20, 2002, 2. Finney, Paul Burnham. “U.S. Business Travelers Take the Train.” International Herald Tribune, April 24, 2007, 16. Friedl, Randall R. “Unraveling Aircraft Impacts.” Science 286 (October 1, 1999): 57–58. “Fueling Jets with Animal Fat.” Environment News Service, July 18, 2007, http:// www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jul2007/2007-07-18-09.asp#anchor7. Gaarder, Nancy. “Many Digging Deep for Cheaper Energy.” Omaha World-Herald, May 29, 2007, A-1, A-2. “Global Warming Could Hamper Ocean Sequestration.” Environment News Service, December 4, 2002, http://ens-news.com/ens/dec2002/2002-12-0409.asp. Goodstein, Laurie. “Eighty-six Evangelical Leaders Join to Fight Global Warming.” The New York Times, February 8, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/08/ national/08warm.htm. Grant, Paul M. “Hydrogen Lifts Off—with a Heavy Load: The Dream of Clean, Usable Energy Needs to Reflect Practical Reality.” Nature 424 (July 10, 2003): 129–130. Hakim, Danny. “Several States Likely to Follow California on Car Emissions.” The New York Times, June 11, 2004, C-4. Hansen, James E. “Political Interference with Government Climate Change Science.” Testimony of James E. Hansen, 4273 Durham Road, Kintnersville, Pennsylvania, to Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. United States House of Representatives, March 19, 2007. ———. “Coal Trains of Death.” James Hansen’s E-mail List, July 23, 2007. Harden, Blaine. “Air, Water Powerful Partners in Northwest; Region’s Hydro-Heavy Electric Grid Makes for Wind-Energy Synergy,” The Washington Post, March 21, 2007, A-3, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/ 03/20/AR2007032001634 pf.html. Hillman, Mayer, and Tina Fawcett. The Suicidal Planet: How to Prevent Global Climate Catastrophe. New York: St. Martin’s Press/Thomas Dunne Books, 2007. Hoffman, Ian. “Iron Curtain Over Global Warming; Ocean Experiment Suggests Phytoplankton May Cool Climate.” Daily Review (Hayward, CA), April 17, 2004 (in LEXIS).

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Global Warming 101 Holly, Chris. “World CO2 Emissions Up 13 Percent from 1990–2000.” The Energy Daily 30(206) (October 25, 2002) (in LEXIS). Hord, Bill. “Mead Plant Hailed as ‘Revolutionary.’” Omaha World-Herald, June 29, 2007, D-1. “Indy 500 Race Cars to Run on 100% Ethanol.” Environment News Service, May 25, 2007, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/may2007/2007-05-25-09. asp#anchor6. “Investors Sizing Up ‘Carbon Footprints.’” Omaha World-Herald, September 30, 2007, D-1. “Iron Link to CO2 Reductions Weakened.” Environment News Service, April 10, 2003, http://ens-news.com/ens/apr2003/2003-04-10-09.asp#anchor8. Johansen, Bruce. “Scandinavia Gets Serious About Global Warming.” The Progressive, July 2007, 22–24. Johnson, Keith. “Renewable Power Might Yield Windfall.” The Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2007, A-8. Keates, Nancy. “Building a Better Bike Lane.” The Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2007, W-1, W-10. Kelley, Kate. “City Approves ‘Carbon Tax’ in Effort to Reduce Gas Emissions.” The New York Times, November 18, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/18/ us/18carbon.html. Knoblauch, Jessica A. “Have It Your (the Sustainable) Way.” EJ (Environmental Journalism), Spring 2007, 28–30, 46. Layton, Lyndsey. “A Carbon-neutral House? Plan Would Offset Emissions by End of Current Congress.” The Washington Post, May 25, 2007, A17, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/24/ AR2007052402146.html. “Liquid CO2 Dump in Norwegian Sea Called Illegal.” Environment News Service, July 11, 2002, http://ens-news.com/ens/jul2002/2002-07-11-02.asp. Lovelock, James. The Revenge of Gaia: Why the Earth Is Fighting Back—And How We Can Still Save Humanity. London: Allen Lane, 2006. Lovins, Amory. “More Profit with Less Carbon.” Scientific American, (September 2005): 74, 76–83. Monbiot, George. “We Are All Killers Until We Stop Flying.” The Guardian (United Kingdom), February 28, 2006, http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2006/02/ 28/we-are-all-killers/. Mufson, Steven. “On Capitol Hill, a Warmer Climate for Bio-fuels.” The Washington Post, June 15, 2007, D-1, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/06/14/AR2007061402089 pf.html. “Norway Says No to Controversial Plan to Store CO2 on Ocean Floor.” Agence France Presse, August 22, 2002 (in LEXIS). Pacala, S., and R. Socolow. “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies.” Science 305 (August 13, 2004): 968–972. Renewing the Earth: An Invitation to Reflection and Action on Environment in Light of Catholic Social Teaching. Washington, DC: United States Catholic Conference, n.d., 3. Revkin, Andrew C. “Planting New Forests Can’t Match Saving Old Ones in Cutting Greenhouse Gases, Study Finds.” The New York Times, September 22, 2000, A-23.

Solutions ———. “Antarctic Test Raises Hope on a Global-warming Gas.” The New York Times, October 12, 2000, A-18. “Rich Countries’ Greenhouse Gas Emissions Ballooning.” Environment News Service, June 9, 2003, http://ens-news.com/ens/jun2003/2003-06-09-02.asp. Schlermeier, Quirin. “The Oresmen.” Nature 421 (January 9, 2003): 109–110. Schulze, Ernst-Detlef, Christian Wirth, and Martin Heimann. “Managing Forests after Kyoto.” Science 289 (September 22, 2000): 2058–2059. Seibel, Brad A., and Patrick J. Walsh. “Potential Impacts of C02 Injection on Deep-sea Biota.” Science 294 (October 12, 2001): 319–320. Smith, Rebecca. “New Plants Fueled by Coal Are Put on Hold.” The Wall Street Journal, July 25, 2007, A-1, A-10. Spencer, Jane. “Big Firms to Press Suppliers on Climate.” The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2007, A-7. Speth, James Gustave. Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2004. “Temperate Forests Could Worsen Global Warming.” Carnegie Institution Press Release, December 6, 2005. Tsuda, Atsushi, Shigenobu Takeda, Hiroaki Saito, Jun Nishioka, Yukihiro Nojiri, Isao Kudo, Hiroshi Kiyosawa, Akihiro Shiomoto, Keiri Imai, Tsuneo Ono, Akifumi Shimamoto, Daisuke Tsumune, Takeshi Yoshimura, Tatsuo Aono, Akira Hinuma, Masatoshi Kinugasa, Koji Suzuki, Yoshiki Sohrin, Yoshifumi Noiri, Heihachiro Tani, Yuji Deguchi, Nobuo Tsurushima, Hiroshi Ogawa, Kimio Fukami, Kenshi Kuma, and Toshiro Saino. “A Mesoscale Iron Enrichment in the Western Subarctic Pacific Induces a Large Centric Diatom Bloom.” Science 300 (May 9, 2003): 958–961. Urquhart, Frank, and Jim Gilchrist. “Air Travel to Blame as Well.” The Scotsman, October 8, 2002 (in LEXIS). U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. “Global Climate Change: A Plea for Dialogue, Prudence, and the Common Good: A Statement of the U.S. Catholic Bishops.” Edited by William P. Fay. June 15, 2001, http://www.ncrlc.com/climideas.html. Vinciguerra, Thomas. “At 90, an Environmentalist from the ’70s Still Has Hope.” The New York Times, June 19, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/19/science/ earth/19conv.html. Volk, Tyler. “Real Concerns, False Gods: Invoking a Wrathful Biosphere Won’t Help Us Deal with the Problems of Climate Change.” Nature 440 (April 13, 2006): 869–870. Watson, A. J., D. C. E. Bakker, A. J. Ridgwell, P. W. Boyd, and C. S. Law. “Effect of Iron Supply on Southern Ocean CO2 Uptake and Implications for Glacial Atmospheric CO2 .” Nature 407 (October 12, 2000): 730–733. Williams, Carol J. “Danes See a Breezy Solution; Denmark has Become a Leader in Turning Offshore Windmills into Clean, Profitable Sources of Energy as Europe Races to Meet Emissions Goals.” Los Angeles Times, June 25, 2001, A-1. Wolf, Martin. “Hot Air About Global Warming.” Financial Times (London), November 29, 2000, 27.

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Glossary Acidity. As carbon dioxide levels rise in ocean and freshwater, acidity increases, threatening animals with shells made of calcium. Aerosols regarding Climate Change (see also Soot). Particles in the atmosphere that, depending on their position and density, may increase or decrease global warming. Albedo (see also Feedback Loops). Reflectivity. Light-colored surfaces, such as snow, reflect much more heat than darker ones, such as forests or oceans. Antarctic Oscillation. An upper-air wind pattern that usually circles the South Pole and plays a role in the northward spread of the cold air that builds up in this area. Anthropomorphic. Human-created. This term usually is applied to emissions of greenhouse gases, to distinguish them from those that are part of the nature, as in the carbon cycle. Arctic Oscillation. An upper-air wind pattern that usually circles the North Pole and plays a role in the southward spread of the cold air that builds up in this area. Arrhenius, Savante. The first scientist, in 1896, to attempt an explanation of infrared forcing (the greenhouse effect, or global warming) as a scientific theory. Bark Beetles (Pine Bark Beetles). Insects whose reproductive cycle speeds up when temperatures warm, causing increased devastation of evergreen trees. Biomass Fuel (see also Ethanol). Fuel, used for vehicle propulsion or home heating (among others), obtained from plant matter, including, most often, sugarcane, corn, wood waste products, or animal waste, and other substances that are sometimes discarded as waste. Cap and Trade. A system of greenhouse gas controls that allows polluting industries to buy and sell the right to release given amounts of carbon

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dioxide and other pollutants. In theory, such a system will reduce emissions by allowing companies that reduce their production of greenhouse gases to save money. Carbon Cycle. A model that describes how carbon is cycled through the earth and atmosphere. Carbon Dioxide. One carbon and two oxygen atoms; the major greenhouse gas. Carbon Dioxide Level (Keeling Curve). A graphic description of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, first designed by Charles Keeling during the late 1950s. Carbon Sink. An area that absorbs carbon dioxide. Carbon Tax. A government levy with the primary purpose of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by raising the price of fossil fuels (and affecting demand) relative to other alternatives. “Clathrate Gun” Hypothesis. See “Methane Burp” Hypothesis. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (see also Ozone; Stratospheric). An artificial chemical introduced during the 1930s mainly as a cooling agent for air conditioners. It was outlawed in the late 1980s because of a role in depleting ozone in the stratosphere. CFCs also are greenhouse gases. Global warming near the surface tends to aggravate ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere. Climatic Equilibrium (see also Feedbacks). Scientific formulas that measure the pace with which the warming that we feel in the atmosphere catches up with the “forcing” of greenhouse gases. The observed level of temperatures in the air is probably about 50 years behind actual emission levels; in the oceans, equilibrium is reached much more slowly, given their great thermal inertia. Climate Models. Scientific designs meant to forecast the effects of greenhouse gas emissions (among other things) on climate. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). Solar energy produced with mirrors; a new technology that may provide large-scale solar power at costs lower than photovoltaic cells. Contrarians (see also Skeptics). Opponents of the idea that increasing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere are a major reason for steadily rising temperatures. Desertification. Conversion of land to desert, often by human activities, such as overgrazing or other misuse. Drunken Forest. A name applied in Alaska to forests that lean at odd angles due to melting of permafrost. Ethanol (see also Biomass Fuel). Fuel from vegetable sources (most often corn or sugarcane) used for propulsion in combination with or as a replacement for gasoline.

Glossary

Extinction. Elimination of species by natural or human-influenced causes. Feedback Loops (see also Tipping Points). Climatic forcings (influences) that compound each other, adding to the speed and intensity of global warming. The release of carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost is an example of a feedback loop; change in albedo from white snow to heat-absorbing dark surfaces (forests or oceans) is another. Forcings, Climate. An influence on natural variations in climate; imposed changes on the Earth’s energy balance, a temporary upsetting of the balance, which alters the Earth’s mean temperature. Forcings include changes of the sun’s brightness, volcanic eruptions that discharge small particles into the atmosphere that reflect sunlight and reducing solar heating, and long-lived human-made “greenhouse gases” that trap the Earth’s heat radiation. Climate forcings can be increased or diminished by other, induced changes within the climate system, called “feedbacks.” Fossil Fuels (see also Hydrocarbons). Substances used for energy production, including petroleum, natural gas, and coal, that come from compressed plant matter in the earth. Fourier, Jean Baptiste Joseph. Scientist who, during the 1820s, compared Earth’s atmosphere to a greenhouse. Geoengineering. Proposed, large-scale, technological solutions for global warming, such as injection of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. Global Warming (see also Infrared forcing). Increase in atmospheric temperatures near the Earth’s surface, usually caused by increases in levels of greenhouse gases, natural or anthropomorphic. Gore, Albert. U.S. vice president under Bill Clinton (1993–2001), author of Earth in the Balance (1992), and winner of an Oscar for the documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth” (2006), Gore, with the majority of the popular vote, very narrowly lost the presidential race to George W. Bush in 2000, following the intervention by the Supreme Court. He has been an early and forceful advocate of action to curtail global warming. In 2007, Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize. Greenhouse effect (see also Global warming; Infrared Forcing). Retention of heat in the atmosphere from an imbalance of radiation incoming and outgoing, so called because it resembles the effect of a greenhouse. Greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide, methane, and other atmospheric constituents that retain heat, resulting in global warming (infrared forcing). Hansen, James E. Long-term director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in New York City. In addition to many scientific contributions, Hansen has been a long-time public advocate of action to reduce greenhouses gases in the atmosphere, to the point where three U.S. presidents (Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush) have tried and failed to censor him.

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Heat Island Effect. Emission of waste heat and design factors that cause most large cities to retain more heat than surrounding countryside, raising their relative temperatures. The size of a city and density of population intensify this effect. Hydrocarbons (see also Fossil Fuels). Organic compounds including hydrogen, carbon, and oxygen, such as those found in coal, oil, and natural gas. Hydrogen Fuel Cells. A source of energy, usually for vehicle propulsion, which uses hydrogen as its main power source. Hydrogen fuel does not occur in nature. To date, most hydrogen fuel is produced with fossil fuels. Hydrological Cycle. The movement of water and water vapor between atmosphere and land or oceans. With increasing temperatures, the amount of water vapor (a greenhouse gas) in this cycle increases. Ice Cores. Cylindrical samples of ice taken from glaciers or ice caps that are used by scientists to determine atmospheric composition in the past (paleoclimate), including levels of carbon dioxide. To date, ice cores as old as 800,000 years have been drilled from Antarctica. Infrared Forcing. The scientific name for the greenhouse effect or global warming. Iron Fertilization (of the Oceans). Injection of iron into ocean water to promote the growth of plankton, which absorbs carbon dioxide. Kilowatt. Measuring unit of electrical power, equal to 1,000 watts, named in honor of James Watt. Methane. CH4 (one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms), an odorless, tasteless gas that is flammable in its natural state, as natural gas. Methane develops from decomposing organic matter, and is the second commonest greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. “Methane Burp” Hypothesis (see also “Clathrate Gun” Hypothesis). A theory which maintains that during the Earth’s past, rapid warming has caused solid methane deposits in the oceans to turn to liquid and then eject into the atmosphere as gas, leading to rapid episodes of warming. El Nino/La Nina and Climate Change. A natural cycle that warms (El Nino) or cools (La Nina) ocean water in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. The two cycles, which alternate, have important effects on worldwide weather and climate. Ozone. Molecule containing three oxygen atoms. Stratospheric ozone shields the Earth’s surface from some forms of ultraviolet radiation that can cause cancer in human beings and animals. Ozone Depletion Stratospheric, and Global Warming. Accumulation of heat near the surface of the Earth causes the stratosphere to cool, speeding chemical reactions that destroy ozone there. Thus, a solution to ozone depletion is partially dependent on reduction of warming near the surface.

Glossary

Paleoclimate. Climate of the past. Permafrost (Thawing of ) (see also: Drunken Forest; Feedback Loops). Heretofore permanently frozen ground, usually in or near the Arctic. Photovoltaic Cells (see also Concentrating Solar Power). Devices that convert the sun’s energy for solar power. Phytoplankton. Basis of the oceanic food web, with ability to maintain life influenced by water temperature, among other factors. Sequestration (of Carbon Dioxide). Injection of carbon dioxide into the oceans or underground caverns to keep it out of the atmosphere. Skeptics (see also Contrarians). Opponents of the idea that increasing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere are the major reason for steadily rising temperatures. Many scientists prefer the term “contrarians” because of skepticism’s legitimate role in scientific inquiry. Soot (see also Aerosols). Atmospheric particles that influence other “forcings” related to global warming. Black soot, in particular, may increase the speed with which ice melts when exposed to sunlight. Solar Power. See Photovoltaic Cells; Concentrating Solar Power. Stewardship of the Earth. A religious rationale, found in the Bible, for attention to global warming and other environmental problems. Thermohaline Circulation. Oceanic circulation, influenced by temperature (thermo-) and salinity (-haline). Global warming may influence ocean circulation and oxygen mixing. Tipping Point (see also Feedback Loops). Point at which feedbacks take control and propel a climatic forcing, such as the effect of increasing levels of greenhouse gases, past a point where control (“mitigation”) is possible. A tipping point may occur when a small additional forcing can cause large climate change. Venus. The second planet from the Sun, with an atmosphere that contains 95 percent carbon dioxide and a surface temperature of about 850◦ F, result of global warming that has exceeded its “tipping point.” Wind Power. Derivation of power from wind, usually with turbines. The cost of wind energy has been falling to levels that are competitive with oil, gas, and coal, so its capacity has been rising very quickly.

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Annotated Bibliography INFORMING YOURSELF ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

As in most sciences, the real blow-by-blow in climate change takes place in journals long before books get hold of it. If you’re really serious, keep up with current climatic events in Nature, Science, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), Climatic Change, and the Journal of Climate. The first two are written for scientists and serious lay readers and carry reports in understandable English on the most important scientific controversies. The climate journals are specialized, of course, and often highly technical, although BAMS is not so hard-core. A number of newspapers also carry good coverage of the issue, most notably The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com), Los Angeles Times, San Francisco Chronicle, and The Washington Post (http://www. washingtonpost.com). The London newspapers also are very informative (Britain is miles ahead of the United States in general public awareness of global warming). See, most notably, the London Guardian, The Times, and The Independent, which is a tabloid but has long made global warming a priority issue. In Canada, the Ottawa Citizen, Toronto Star, and Montreal Gazette are worth watching. The Internet is a treasure trove on the subject, with many reports from various environmental and scientific organizations, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Environment News Service (ENS) also offers detailed day-to-day coverage of the issue. SCIENTISTS (AND OTHERS) TO WATCH Richard B. Alley: An expert on Arctic ice melt. Ken (or Kenneth) Caldeira: An expert on the carbonization (increasing acidification) of the oceans and many other newsworthy subjects. Ruth Curry: Oceanographer; an expert on ocean (thermohaline) circulation.

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Annotated Bibliography Kerry A. Emanuel: An expert on hurricanes and global warming. Paul Epstein: An outspoken expert on human health and warming. Jim (or James E.) Hansen: Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, and a long-time veteran of the “weather wars” who has repudiated attempts to silence him from the Reagan and George W. Bush administrations. His science and prescience is solid. John T. Houghton: That’s “Sir” Houghton in Britain. He’s a former chairman of the IPCC who is widely quoted on the subject in the British press. Thomas R. Karl: As the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center, Karl is, in effect, the keeper of the national thermometer. Richard A. Kerr: Staff writer for the journal Science on climate change. Christopher Landsea: A hurricane expert and participant in a robust debate over the effects of global warming on these storms. Daniel C. Nepstad: An expert on the Amazon Valley and warming’s probable effects there. Jonathan T. Overpeck: An expert on future ice sheet instability and sea level rise. J. Alan Pounds: An expert on widespread amphibian extinctions because of epidemic diseases driven in part by global warming. Veerabhadran Ramanathan: A long-time researcher on aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle, especially as they effect his native India. Eric Rignot: An expert on the recession of Antarctic ice. Mark C. Serreze: An expert on changes in Arctic ice due to global warming. Lonnie G. Thompson: Probably the world’s foremost expert on global warming and melting of glaciers in tropical mountains, such as the Andes and Himalayas. Kevin E. Trenberth: An expert on global warming and the hydrological cycle, including El Nino cycles. Gian-Reto Walther: Based in Germany, he is a leading researcher in global warming’s effects on plants.

ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY Abrahamson, Dean Edwin. The Challenge of Global Warming. Washington, DC: Island Press, 1989. An early overview of challenges posed by human contributions to rising temperatures. Agarwal, Anil, and Sunita Narain. Global Warming in an Unequal World: A Case of Environmental Colonialism. New Delhi, India: Centre for Science and Environment, 1991. Global warming politics from the perspective of poorer nations. Alley, Richard B. “Ice-core Evidence of Abrupt Climate Changes.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97(4) (February 15, 2000): 1331–1334. Expert analysis of evidence provided by ice cores for abrupt climate changes in the past. ———. The Two-Mile Time Machine Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2000. A popular version of Alley’s scientific work. Alley, Richard B., Peter U. Clark, Philippe Huybrechts, and Ian Joughin. “Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes.” Science 310 (October 21, 2005): 456–460. Sea level rise and its relationship with melting of large ice masses in various parts of the world.

Annotated Bibliography Alley, Richard B., J. Marotzke, W. D. Nordhaus, J. T. Overpeck, D. M. Peteet, R. A. Pielke, Jr., R. T. Pierrehumbert, P. B. Rhines, T. F. Stocker, L. D. Talley, and J. M. Wallace. “Abrupt Climate Change.” Science 299 (March 28, 2003): 2005–2010. Abrupt climate change is explained as a counterweight to earlier assumptions about the static nature of polar environments. Amstrup, S. C., I. Stirling, T. S. Smith, C. Perham, and G. W. Thiemann. “Recent Observations of Intraspecific Predation and Cannibalism among Polar Bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea. Polar Biology 29(11) (2006): 997–1002. Some polar bears, unable to reach ice masses from which they used to harvest ringed seals, have been eating their own young. Annan, Kofi. “Global Warming an All-Encompassing Threat.” Address to United Nations Conference on Climate Change, Nairobi, Kenya. Environment News Service, November 15, 2006. The leader of the United Nations makes a case for global warming as one of the most serious issues facing the world as a whole. http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/nov2006/2006-11-15-insann.asp. Appenzeller, Tim. “The Big Thaw.” National Geographic (June 2007): 56–71. A very readable survey of ice melt in the Arctic, Antarctic, and mountain glaciers, with explanations describing why the process has been speeding up. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment—Scientific Report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006. Derailed scientific reports of native peoples’ experiences and scientific trends regarding global warming in the Arctic, where temperatures have been rising more quickly than anywhere else on Earth. Arrhenius, Svante. “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground.” The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science 5th ser. (April 1896): 237–276. The first attempt in a scientific journal to explain the heat-retaining capabilities of carbon dioxide. Barnett, Tim P., David W. Pierce, Krishna M. Achuta-Rao, Peter J. Gleckler, Benjamin D. Santer, Jonathan M. Gregory, and Warren M. Washington. “Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World’s Oceans.” Science 309 (July 8, 2005): 284–287. The spread of atmospheric warming into the oceans. Bentley, Charles. “Response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to CO2 -Induced Global Warming.” In Environmental and Societal Consequences of a Possible CO2 -Induced Climate Change, Vol. 2. Washington, DC: Department of Energy, 1980. An early assessment of possible reduction of Antarctica’s western snowpack. ———. West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Diagnosis and Prognosis. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, 1983. A second early assessment of melting and the possible demise of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Benton, Michael J. When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time. London: Thames and Hudson, 2003. Mass extinctions in paleoclimate and possible provocation by rising temperatures. Berger, Andre, and Marie-France Loutre. “Climate: An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?” Science 297 (August 23, 2002): 1287–1288. Will human contributions to greenhouse gases postpone the next ice age? Betsill, Michelle M. “Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion.” In Thomas D. Potter and Bradley R. Colman, eds., Handbook of Weather, Climate, and Water: Atmospheric Chemistry, Hydrology, and Societal Impacts. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley Interscience, 2003, 913–923. A general description of stratospheric ozone depletion’s history and importance.

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Annotated Bibliography Blunier, Thomas. “ ‘Frozen’ Methane Escapes from the Sea Floor.” Science 288 (April 7, 2000): 68–69. Explanation of the “methane burp” hypothesis. Bowen, Mark. Thin Ice: Unlocking the Secrets of Climate in the World’s Highest Mountains. New York: Henry Holt, 2005. Melting ice and its consequences, notably in the Himalayas and Andes. Bowen, Mark. Censoring Science. New York: Dutton, 2008. A detailed history of the George W. Bush administration’s often-futile attempts to throttle discussion of global warming and other scientific matters by scientists who are employed by the U.S. government. The account centers on James E. Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies; attempts at muzzling made him the nations most-recognizable name in climate studies. Bradley, Raymond S., Mathias Vuille, Henry F. Diaz, and Walter Vergara. “Threats to Water Supplies in the Tropical Andes.” Science 312 (June 23, 2006): 1755–1756. Melting of glaciers in the Andes could deprive several South American cities of water supplies. Bradsher, Keith. “China Prospering but Polluting; Dirty Fuels Power Economic Growth.” The New York Times published in The International Herald Tribune, October 22, 2003, 1. China’s reliance on dirty coal for electricity fouls the air of its largest cities. Bradsher, Keith, and David Barboza. “Pollution From Chinese Coal Casts a Global Shadow.” The New York Times, June 11, 2006. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/ 06/11/business/worldbusiness/11chinacoal.html. Update of Bradsher (2003) above. Broecker, W. S. “Thermohaline Circulation: The Achilles Heel of Our Climate System: Will Man-made CO2 Upset the Current Balance?” Science 278 (1997): 1582– 1588. An argument that global warming could cause cold water runoff from the Arctic to depress the Gulf Stream, reducing temperatures in Western Europe. ———. “Are We Headed for a Thermohaline Catastrophe?” In Lee C. Gerhard, William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds., Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change. AAPG [American Association of Petroleum Geologists] Studies in Geology #17. Tulsa, OK: AAPG, 2001, 83–95. Broecker’s repudiation of his case for cooling in Western Europe because of changes in ocean circulation. Brown, DeNeen L. “Waking the Dead, Rousing Taboo; In Northwest Canada, Thawing Permafrost Is Unearthing Ancestral Graves.” The Washington Post, October 17, 2001, A-27. Permafrost has been melting so rapidly in the Arctic that graves have emerged from the earth and opened. Brown, Lester R. Plan B: Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. New York: Earth Policy Institute/W. W. Norton, 2003. Solutions for global warming. Bruun, P. 1962. “Sea-level Rise as a Cause of Shore Erosion.” Journal of Waterways and Harbor Division (American Society of Civil Engineers) 88 (1962): 117–130. Coastal erosion has many causes; rising of seas is one of them. Bryden, Harry L., Hannah R. Longworth, and Stuart A. Cunningham. “Slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 25◦ North.” Nature 438 (December 1, 2005): 655–657. An update on changes in ocean circulation that may be aggravated by warming. Burnett, Adam W., Matthew E. Kirby, Henry T. Mullins, and William P. Patterson. “Increasing Great Lake-effect Snowfall during the Twentieth Century: A Regional Response to Global Warming?” Journal of Climate 16(21) (November 1,

Annotated Bibliography 2003): 3535–3542. Warming increases the contrast between lake temperatures and cold air masses, resulting in record snowfalls near the Great Lakes. Caldeira, Ken, and Philip B. Duffy. “The Role of the Southern Ocean in the Uptake and Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide.” Science 287 (January 28, 2000): 620–622. Increases in oceanic carbon dioxide levels caused by human-generated greenhouse gases. Caldeira, Ken and Michael E. Wickett. “Oceanography: Anthropogenic Carbon and Ocean pH.” Nature 425 (September 25, 2003): 365. Increases in oceanic acidity raising carbon dioxide levels in the air threaten life in the oceans. ˚ Christensen, Torben R., Torbj¨orn Johansson, H. Jonas Akerman, Mihail Mastepanov, Nils Malmer, Thomas Friborg, Patrick Crill, and Bo H. Svensson. “Thawing Subarctic Permafrost: Effects on Vegetation and Methane Emissions.” Geophysical Research Letters 31(4) (February 20, 2004). L04501, doi:10.1029/2003GL018680. Thawing permafrost may inject more methane into the atmosphere, causing still more warming in a feedback loop. Christianson, Gale E. Greenhouse: The 200-Year Story of Global Warming. New York: Walker and Company, 1999. Overview of the issue for a popular audience. Cifuentes, Luis, Victor H. Borja-Aburto, Nelson Gouveia, George Thurston, and Devra Lee Davis. “Hidden Health Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation.” Science 252 (August 17, 2001): 1257–1259. Warm weather has benefits as well as perils regarding human health. Clark, P. U., N. G. Pisias, T. F. Stocker, and A. J. Weaver. “The Role of the Thermohaline Circulation in Abrupt Climate Change.” Nature 415 (February 21, 2002): 863–868. An important paper on climate change and its role in ocean circulation. Cline, William R. The Economics of Global Warming. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1992. An early sketch of economic problems related to global warming. Cook, A. J., A. J. Fox, D. G. Vaughan, and J. G. Ferrigno. “Retreating Glacier Fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the Past Half-Century.” Science 308 (April 22, 2005): 541—544.Glacial retreat across the Antarctic Peninsula in perspective. Crutzen, Paul J. “The Antarctic Ozone Hole, a Human-caused Chemical Instability in the Stratosphere: What Should We Learn from It?” In Lennart O. Bengtsson and Claus U. Hammer, eds., Geosphere-Biosphere Interactions and Climate. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001, 1–11. History of stratospheric ozone chemistry and how scientists came to realize its effects. Curry, Ruth and Cecilie Mauritzen. “Dilution of the Northern North Atlantic Ocean in Recent Decades.” Science 308 (June 17, 2005): 1772–1774. Fresh water from melting ice has been flowing from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. Davis, Neil. Permafrost: A Guide to Frozen Ground in Transition. Fairbanks: University of Alaska Press, 2001. Effects of permafrost melting due to rising temperatures across northern latitudes. Easterling, David R., Briony Horton, Phillip D. Jones, Thomas C. Peterson, Thomas R. Karl, David E. Parker, M. James Salinger, Vyacheslav Razuvayev, Neil Plummer, Paul Jamason, and Christopher K. Folland. “Maximum and Minimum Temperature Trends for the Globe.” Science 277 (1997): 364–366. Worldwide perspective on rising temperatures, especially during the nighttime.

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Annotated Bibliography Emanuel, Kerry. “Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Storms over the Past 30 Years.” Nature 436 (August 4, 2005): 686–688. A recent synopsis of Emanuel’s position on the warming and hurricane intensity issue; part of a debate going back more than 20 years. Flannery, Tim. The Weather Markers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth.New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005. Historical perspective on human beings’ relationship to climate, especially greenhouse warming, from the earliest days of agriculture. Gelbspan, Ross. The Heat is On: The High Stakes Battle Over Earth’s Threatened Climate. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1997. Emphasis on global warming politics, most notably the fossil fuel industry’s funding of contrarians. ———. Boiling Point: How Politicians, Big Oil and Coal, Journalists, and Activists Have Fueled the Climate Crisis—–and What We Can Do to Avert Disaster. New York: Basic Books (Perseus), 2004. Update of The Heat Is On (1997), with similar themes. Ghazi, Polly, and Rachel Lewis. The Low-Carbon Diet: Slim Down, Chill Out, and Save the World. London: Short, 2007. Combating global warming on a personal level. Eating “low on the food chain” produces less carbon dioxide. Glick, Patricia. Global Warming: The High Costs of Inaction. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1998. “Business as usual” may be the ticket to disaster, Glick asserts. Goodall, Chris. How to Live a Low-carbon Life: The Individual’s Guide to Stopping Climate Change. London: Earthscan, 2007. As the title indicates, street- and hearth-level advice on how to reduce one’s carbon footprint. Gore, Albert, Jr. Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1992. Classic, alarm-sounding study that preceded Gore’s Oscar-winning documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth” (2006). Gribben, John. Hothouse Earth: The Greenhouse Effect and Gaia. London: Bantam Press, 1990. An argument that the Gaia hypothesis (that the Earth functions as a selfregulating single organism) will help to solve global warming problems. Hallam, Anthony, and Paul Wignall. Mass Extinctions and Their Aftermath. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997. Evidence of periodic rapid warming in the Earth’s past and how it provoked mass extinctions. Hansen, James E. “Defusing the Global Warming Time Bomb.” Scientific American 290(3) (March 2004): 68–77. Description of how global warming may affect sea levels in coming years and its possible human toll. ———. “Is There Still Time to Avoid ‘Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with Global Climate? A Tribute to Charles David Keeling.” A paper delivered to the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, December 6, 2005. http: //www.columbia.edu/∼jeh1/keeling talk and slides.pdf. Accessed December 10, 2005. Text of a speech that provoked the George W. Bush administration to attempt censorship of Hansen’s public comments, leading to a nationwide furor among scientists. Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebendeff, D. Rind, and G. Russell. “Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.” Science 213 (1981): 957– 956. The first scientific article to use and define the term, “global warming.” Harvell, C. Drew, Charles E. Mitchell, Jessica R. Ward, Sonia Altizer, Andrew P. Dobson, Richard S. Ostfeld, and Michael D. Samuel. “Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota.” Science 296 (June 21, 2002): 2158–2162. Warming and threat of disease among sea creatures.

Annotated Bibliography Hay, S. I., J. Cox, D. J. Rogers, S. E. Randolph, D. I. Stern, G. D. Shanks, M. F. Myers, and R. W. Snow. “Climate Change and the Resurgence of Malaria in the East African Highlands.” Nature 425 (February 21, 2002): 905–909. Warming in tropical areas and the spread of malaria, especially into areas that once were protected by high elevation. Hesselbo, Stephen P., Darren R. Grocke, Hugh C. Jenkyns, Christian J. Bjerrum, Paul Farrimond, Helen S. Morgans Bell, and Owen R. Green. “Massive Dissociation of Gas Hydrate During a Jurassic Oceanic Anoxic Event.” Nature 406 (July 27, 2000): 392–395. Documentation of a “methane burp” event in the past. Hillman, Mayer, Tina Fawcett, and Sudhir Chella Rajan. The Suicidal Planet: How to Prevent Global Climate Catastrophe. New York: St. Martin’s Press/Dunne, 2007. A treasure trove of statistics, with emphasis on solutions to global warming. Hoffert, Martin I., Ken Caldeira, Gregory Benford, David R. Criswell, Christopher Green, Howard Herzog, Atul K. Jain, Haroon S. Kheshgi, Klaus S. Lackner, John S. Lewis, H. Douglas Lightfoot, Wallace Manheimer, John C. Mankins, Michael E. Mauel, L. John Perkins, Michael E. Schlesinger, Tyler Volk, and Tom M. L. Wigley. “Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet.” Science 298 (November 1, 2002): 981–987. Technological “fixes” for global warming. Houghton, John. Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1997. A concise and readable account from a former chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Idso, Sherwood B. Carbon Dioxide: Friend or Foe? Tempe, AZ: IBR Press, 1982. Early statement of the contrarian case. Inkley, D. B., M. G. Anderson, A. R. Blaustein, V. R. Burkett, B. Felzer, B. Griffith, J. Price, and T. L. Root. Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America. Washington, DC: The Wildlife Society, 2004. http:// www.nwf.org/news. Global warming’s effects on animals around the world. Johansen, Bruce E. The Global Warming Desk Reference. Westport, CT: Greenwood, 2001. Survey of the problem, evidence of warming to date, and possible solutions. ———. Global Warming in the 21st Century. 3 vols. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2006. Survey of scientific literature and effects of global climate change, with an emphasis on feedback loops, as well as a 100-page bibliography. Kaiser, Jocelyn. “Glaciology: Warmer Ocean Could Threaten Antarctic Ice Shelves.” Science 302 (October 31, 2003): 759. The coming effects of warming in and near Antarctica. Karl, Thomas R., Richard W. Knight, and Bruce Baker. “The Record-breaking Global Temperatures of 1997 and 1998: Evidence for an Increase in the Rate of Global Warming.” Geophysical Research Letters 27 (March 1, 2000): 719–722. Karl and his coauthors argue that the rate of warming has been increasing as temperatures rise. Karl, T. R., N. Nicholls, and J. Gregory. “The Coming Climate.” Scientific American 276 (1997): 79–83. Survey of warming worldwide, its evidence and effects in the future. Karl, Thomas R. and Kevin E. Trenberth. “Modern Global Climate Change.” Science 302 (December 5, 2003): 1719–1723. Survey of global warming’s effects worldwide.

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Annotated Bibliography Kolbert, Elizabeth. Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change. New York: Bloomsbury, 2006. Kolbert is also a staff writer for The New Yorker who contributes pieces to the magazine on climate change. See, for example, “The Darkening Sea: What Carbon Emissions Are Doing to the Oceans.” The New Yorker, November 20, 2006, 66–75. Kolbert ‘s popular treatment provides a personal portrait of many scientists and their work, as well as the dire prospects of continued global warming. Krugman, Paul. “The Sum of All Ears.” The New York Times, January 29, 2007, A23. Critique of ethanol production from corn. Emphasis on manufacture of ethanol from corn could increase prices for some foods substantially. Landsea, Christopher W., Bruce A. Harper, Karl Hoarau, and John A. Knaff. “Can We Detect Trends in Extreme Tropical Cyclones?” Science 313 (July 26, 2006): 452–454. Critique of the idea that global warming increases the frequency of tropical cyclones. Lavers, Chris. Why Elephants Have Big Ears. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2000. Evolution and adaptation to climate. Elephants have large ears to diffuse heat. Leggett, Jeremy. The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era. New York: Routledge, 2001. Emphasis on the oil industry’s attempts to de-emphasize the threats poised by global warming and maintain its position in world energy markets. Levitus, Sydney, John I. Antonov, Timothy P. Boyer, and Cathy Stephens. “Warming of the World Ocean.” Science 287 (2000): 2225–2229. Warming in the atmosphere influences ocean temperatures over a time span of many centuries. Lomborg, Bjorn. Cool It! The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming. New York: Knopf, 2007. The contrarian case from an “environmentalist” who believes, among other things, that polar bears will survive by changing into land-dwelling brown bears. If a Nobel Prize was given for specious statistics, Lomborg would own it. Lovejoy, Thomas E., and Lee Hannah, Eds. Climate Change and Biodiversity. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006. Warming temperatures devastate natural habitats and threaten diversity of species. Lovelock, James. The Revenge of Gaia: Why the Earth is Fighting Back—and How We Can Still Save Humanity. London: Allen Lane, 2006. The idea that Earth is a self-sustaining biological system (Gaia) applied to global warming. Lynas, Mark. High Tide: The Truth About Our Climate Crisis. New York: Picador/St. Martin’s Press, 2004. A readable travelogue of global-warming’s effects around the world. ———. “Fly and be Damned.” New Statesman (London) April 3, 2006, 12–15. www.newstatesman.com/200604030006. Environmental problems of aviation. ———. The Carbon Calculator. New York: HarperCollins, 2006. Calculate your energy consumption from everyday activities with this handy guide. ———. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. London: Fourth Estate (HarperCollins), 2007. Analysis of how plants, animals, and people will be affected as temperatures rise, from 1◦ to 6◦ C. (U.S. edition from National Geographic, 2008.) McGuire, Bill. What Everyone Should Know about the Future of Our Planet: And What We Can Do about It. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2007. Emphasis on solutions to global warming in the long term.

Annotated Bibliography McKibben, Bill. The End of Nature. New York: Random House, 1989. Pioneering treatment of humanity’s effects on climate and its alienation from the natural world. Monbiot, George. Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning. Toronto: Doubleday Canada, 2006. Recommendations from a British writer for a cleaner, greener, and cooler future. National Academy of Sciences. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1991. An early statement by a national science advisory group to the government assessing the future, with policy recommendations. Oppenheimer, Michael, and Robert H. Boyle. Dead Heat: The Race against the Greenhouse Effect. New York: Basic Books, 1990. Overpeck, Jonathan T., Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Gifford H. Miller, Daniel R. Muhs, Richard B. Alley, and Jeffrey T. Kiehl. “Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future IceSheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise.” Science 311 (March 24, 2006): 1747– 1750. Evidence from the past indicates how, when, and why ice sheets may melt. Philander, S. George. Our Affair with El Nino: How We Transformed an Enchanting Peruvian Current into a Global Climate Hazard. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006. Emphasis on the much-debated possible relationship between El Nino and rising temperatures. Ramanathan, V., P. J. Crutzen, J. T. Kiehl, and D. Rosenfeld. “Aerosols, Climate, and the Hydrological Cycle.” Science 294 (December 7, 2001): 2119–2124. The effects of aerosols (particles in the atmosphere) and precipitation trends. Rignot, E., G. Casassa, P. Gogineni, W. Krabill, A. Rivera, A., and R. Thomas. “Accelerated Ice Discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula Following the Collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf.” Geophysical Research Letters 31(18) (September 22, 2004): L18402. The collapse of ice shelves on the edge of the Antactic Peninsula raises the speed of other glaciers’ movement toward the sea. Romm, Jospeh J. Hell and High Water: Global Warming—The Solution and the Politics— and What We Should Do. New York: William Morrow, 2007. Global warming politics during the presidency of George W. Bush. Rowland, Sherwood and Mario Molina. “Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine Atom-Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone.” Nature 249 (June 28, 1974): 810–812. Seminal paper on the scientific discovery of stratospheric ozone depletion. Schneider, Stephen H. Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century? San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 1989. A veteran scientist’s first popular treatment of the issue. Serreze, Mark C., and Roger G. Barry. The Arctic Climate System. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006. A glaciologist looks at the decline of ice in the Arctic, along with other issues related to climate change. Singer, S. Fred, and Dennis T. Avery. Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1,500 Years. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2006. A contrarian’s case against what he believes to be “global warming hysteria.” Speth, James Gustave. Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2004. Perspectives from the past, reflections on what the future may bring, and a sense of scholarly alarm.

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Annotated Bibliography Steinman, David, and Wendy Gordon Rockefeller. Safe Trip to Eden: 10 Steps to Save Planet Earth from Global Warming Meltdown. New York: Thunder’s Mouth Press, 2007. Popular guide on personal ways to combat global warming. Stevens, William K. The Change in the Weather: People, Weather, and the Science of Climate. New York: Delacorte Press, 1999. A New York Times reporter’s summary of his years on the global warming beat. Sweet, William. Kicking the Carbon Habit: Global Warming and the Case for Renewable and Nuclear Energy. New York: Columbia University Press, 2006. A case for alternative fuels, including nuclear. Thompson, Lonnie G., Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Henry Brecher, Mary Davis, Blanca ´ Don Les, Ping-Nan Lin, Tracy Mashiotta, and Keith Mountain. “Abrupt Leon, Tropical Climate Change: Past and Present.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103(28) (July 11, 2006): 10536–10543. One of the world’s top glaciologists documents rapid ice melt in high mountains, especially the Andes and Himalayas. Trenberth, Kevin E., Aiguo Dai, Roy M. Rassmussen, and David B. Parsons. “The Changing Character of Precipitation.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84(9) (September 2003): 1205–1217. Rising temperatures and a tendency toward drought and deluge in different parts of the world. U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. “Global Climate Change: A Plea for Dialogue, Prudence, and the Common Good.” Edited by William P. Fay. June 15, 2001. http://www.ncrlc.com/climideas.html. An argument that the human race has a moral obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Bible’s requirement to practice “stewardship of the Earth.” Walther, Gian-Reto. “Plants in a Warmer World.” Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 6(3) (2003): 169–185. Effects of rising temperatures on plants worldwide by an expert in the field. Weart, Spencer R. The Discovery of Global Warming. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2003. The history of global warming as a scientific idea.

Index Note: The letter “f” following a page number denotes a figure on that page. Abdalati, Waleed, 49 Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI), 30 Acidity: definition of, 171; of ocean water, xix, 86–87, 161 Aerosols: regarding climate school, 171; sulfate, 24. See also Soot Africa: increasing drought in, 20, 23; malaria in, 123, 124, 129. See also individual country Aircraft fuel, 142–43 Air travel, 142–44 Alainga, Pitseolak, 43 Alaska: drunken forests in, 45f–46; glacier tourism in, 44–45; retreating mountain glaciers in, 61; sea erosion in, 47–48; spruce beetle outbreaks in, 46–47f Albedo flip, 44 Albedo (reflectivity), 10, 43–44, 171. See also Feedback loops Allen, Hartwell, 101 Allen, Kurt, 117 Alley, Richard, 11–12, 13 Alligators, 106–7f Alps, 60, 64–66, 120 Amazon Valley, 111, 118, 120 Anderson, Jay, 52 Andes: cloud forests in, 111; glacier retreat in, 66–68; potato fungus in, 101

Animal fats, as fuel, 166 Animals. See Plants and animals; specific animal Annan, Kofi, 23–24 Antarctica: carbon dioxide levels in, xvii; climate contradictions in, 54–55; ice shelf collapse in, 55–57; ozone hole in, 15; speed of ice melt in, 57–58; warming effect on ocean food web in, 58–60 Antarctic oscillation, definition of, 171 Anthropomorphic, definition of, 171 Arctic: albedo changes and global warming in, 44; effects of unseasonal rain in, 40–41; ice in thinning in, 39–40, 41; opening of Northwest Passage in, 53f; personal stories of climate change in, 41–43; polar bears under pressure in, 50–52, 105 Argentina: dengue fever in, 120–21; retreating mountain glaciers in, 61–62 Armadillos, 107–9, 108f Arrhenius, Savante, 2, 171 Arrigo, Kevin, 59 Ash trees, 109 Asia: increasing drought in, 20, 23–24. See also individual country Asner, Gregory P., 118 Atkinson, Angus, 58

188

Index Atmosphere, composition of, 1–2 Atmospheric envelope, 2 Audubon, John J., 115–16 Australia: building code changes in, 154; global warming effects in, 34–35; greenhouse gas emissions in, 156; increasing drought in, 20 Automobile greenhouse gas emissions, 153–54 Baltimore orioles, 115–16 Banana plants, in English gardens, 33 Bangladesh: flooding in, 81; fossil fuel use in, 6 Barger, Andre, 68 Bark beetles: Douglas fir, 117; mountain pine, 117; pine, 117, 171; spread across U.S., 117–18; spruce, 46–47f, 117 Barkham, Patrick, 80 Barnett, Tim, 30, 74 Barter, Guy, 33 Barthmuss, Dave, 154 Battisti, David, 85–86 Beard, Dan, 150, 162–63 Beaty, Barry, 128 Beaugrand, Gregory, 87 Beckett, Margaret, 32 Beebee, Trevor, 104 Benton, Michael, 99–100 Bentz, Barbara, 117 Bicycles, 141–42 Biofuels, 101, 134, 140, 145–47, 149, 152, 166 Biomass fuel, 149–50, 166, 171 Birds: Baltimore orioles, 115–16; seabirds, 113–14 Birdwell, Kevin, 31 Bisgrove, Richard, 33 Blix, Hans, xv–xvi Bolide, 86 Bolivia, 62, 66 Bolsinger, Lorraine, 163 Boltz, Brian, 109 Bond, Gerard, 12 Bondam, Klaus, 141 Bordees, Ed, 121

Branson, Richard, 143 Brazil, 118, 145 Breakbone fever, 121 Brendeon, Borge, 162 Broecker, Wallace S., 85 Buesseler, Ken O., 159 Building code changes, 154–55 Bush, George W., 31, 145, 147 Caldeira, Ken, 86–87, 157 Callendar, G. D., 2–3 Canada: artificial hockey ice in, 52; greenhouse gas emissions in, 154, 156; increasing drought in, 20; peaking runoff in, 30 Canadell, Joseph G., 5 Cap and trade, definition of, 171–72 Carbon cycle, 158, 171–72 Carbon dioxide: deep sea disposal of, 161–62; definition of, 171–72; effect on ocean acidity, 86–87; increase in atmosphere, xiv, xvi, 4; levels at Mauna Loa, 5f–6 Carbon dioxide level (Keeling curve), definition of, 172 Carbon Disclosure Project, 164 Carbon-intensive foods, 144–45 Carbon-neutral, 162 Carbon sink, 157–58, 172 Carbon tax, 150–51, 172 Cassman, Kenneth G., 102–3 Chile, retreating mountain glaciers in, 61–62 China: coal-fired power in, 136; drinking water supply in, 62; floods in, 21; fossil fuel use in, xiii, 6, 7–8; greenhouse gas emissions in, xvi, 155, 156; railroads in, 141; retreating mountain glaciers in, 62; rising food prices in, 146; rising sea levels in, 76–77 Chirac, Jacques, 150–51 Chisholm, Sallie W., 158, 159 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 15, 172. See also Ozone; Stratospheric Clark, P. U., 55 Clathrate gun hypothesis. See Methane burp hypothesis

Index Clathrates, 10 Climate change: abrupt nature of, 11–12; sun as major driver, 12–13 Climate forcings, xv, 3, 12, 74, 173 Climate models, 3, 8, 11, 18, 20, 23, 29, 33, 55, 74, 156–57, 172 Climatic equilibrium: definition of, 172. See also Feedback loops Coale, Kenneth H., 159, 160 Coal-fired electricity, 134–36 Colquhoun, Andrew, 33 Commoner, Barry, 161 Concentrating solar power (CSP), 138–40, 172 Contrarians, 21, 172. See also Skeptics Cook, Gary, 106 Coral atolls, 80 Coral reefs, 87–89, 88f, 104 Corporate sustainability officers, 163–64 Costa Rica, 110–11 Crop yields, reduced, 101–3 Crowley, Tom, 68 Cuckoo, decline in England, 110 Cunningham, Stuart, 84 Curry, Judith, 28 Curry, Ruth, 83–84 Dai, Aiguo, 20 Daily, Gretchen, 112 Davis, Curt H., 55 Davis, Robert, 125 Deforestation, 110–11 DeGaetano, Arthur, 126 Dengue fever, 36, 120–22, 123, 124, 127, 128–29 Denmark: bicycles in, 141–42; building code changes in, 154–55; oil replacement in, 152; wind power in, 136, 137, 138 Deque, Michel, 18 Derocher, Andrew, 51 Desertification, 23–24, 172 Dettinger, Michael, 29 Diseases, warming effect on spread of, 121–23 Douglas fir bark beetles, 117

Drinking water supply: in Alaska, 48; in Australia, 35; in China, 62; in India, 62; in North America, 29 Drunken forests, 45f–46, 172 Eastern Europe, greenhouse gas emissions in, 156 Ecuador, 62, 66 Effects on Human Health, 120 Egan, Tom, 46 Egypt, rising sea levels in, 77 El Nino/La Nina and climate charge, 6, 21, 25, 27–28, 87, 113, 118, 123, 174 Emanuel, Kerry, 25–27 Emerald ash borer, 109 Encephalitis, 121 Endangered Species Act, 51 Energy use, change in, 133–34 England. See Great Britain Epstein, Paul, 121–23, 124 Eskimo, 42–43 Ethanol, 145–46, 172. See also Biomass fuel Europe: carbon tax in, 150–51; global warming in, 17–19; greenhouse gas emissions in, 156; increasing drought in, 20; oil replacement in, 152–53; wind power in, 136–37 Extinction: definition of, 173; mass, 98–100 Farming technology improvements, 151–52 Feedback loops, xiv, 9–12, 75; definition of, 173. See also Tipping points Field, Chris, 5 Field, Christopher, 101 Fish, decline in yields, 89–91 Fisher, Linda J., 163 Forcings, climate, xv, 3, 12, 74, 173 Forests: deforestation, 110–11; tree planting, 156–58; tropical mountain forests, 110–12 Fossil fuels: definition of, 173; increase in demand, xiii, 6–8. See also Hydrocarbons Fourier, Jean Baptiste Joseph, 2, 173

189

190

Index France, 8, 17, 18, 120, 141 Fraser, Paul, xvi Fritz, Mike, 108 Frogs, 112 Frost, Robert, 22 Gaia hypothesis, 160 Gehrels, Roland, 76 Geoengineering, definition of, 173 Geothermal energy, 150 Germany: forests in, 157–58; greenhouse gas emissions in, 155; solar power in, 149; wind power in, 137, 138 Gibbons, Whitfield, 112 Glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF), 65–66 Glacier tourists, 44–45 Glick, Patricia, 116 Global warming: in Australia, 34–35; average temperatures, 1800-present, 4f; definition of, 173; development of field of, xvi–xvii; drought and deluge, 19–21; drought and deluge, example, 21–23; effect on ice age cycle, 68; in Great Britain, 31–33; and hurricanes, 24–31; in Japan, 35–36; and North America’s water supplies, 29–31; and ozone depletion, 15; small temperature changes, 103–5; soot effect on, 11; and spreading deserts, 23–24; and stratospheric cooling, 15; surface albedo effect on, 43–44; and surface warming, 14; temperatures spikes, xiii–xiv. See also Infrared forcing Global Warming and Hurricanes, 24 Glossary, 171–75 Gore, Albert, 3, 173 Graham, Monty, 91 Grant, Paul M., 148 Gray, William M., 28 Great Britain: decline of cuckoo in, 110; flooding in, 32; fossil fuel use in, 8; global warming in, 31–33; greenhouse gas emissions in, 155; horticulture in, 32–33 “Green” electric power, 148–49

Greenhouse effect: definition of, 173; history of idea of, 2–3; on Venus, 1–2. See also Global warming; Infrared forcing Greenhouse gases: automobile, 153–54; definition of, 173; increasing levels of, xiv, xvi, 3, 155–56; and wintertime warming, 8 Greenland, ice melt in, 10, 48–50, 49f, 75, 83–84 Gregory, Jonathan, 50 Grinnell, George Bird, 61 Grinspoon, David, 14 Gulf of Mexico coast, sea level rise, 79–80 Gulowsen, Truls, 162 Gurney, Kevin R., 157 Hadley, Paul, 33 Hagiwara, Shinsuke, 36 Haines, Andrew, 122 Hallam, Anthony, 99 Hansen, James E., 9, 11, 44, 74–75, 78–79, 134–36, 173 Harris, Charles, 65 Hartshorn, Gary S., 111–12 Hay, H. I., 129 Health benefits, of warming, 127–29 Heat island effect, 125–26, 174 Heat waves, death from, 125–27 Hedger, Marilyn McKenzie, 32 Herms, Dan, 109 Himalayas, retreating mountain glaciers in, 62 HIV/AIDS, 122 Hockey, artificial ice for, 52 Hogbom, Arvid, 2 Houghton, John, xvi, 121 House of Representatives, as carbon-neutral, 162–63 Howard, John, 35 Howard, Luke, 125 Hughes, T. P., 88–89 Human health, climate change effect on, 120–21 Hungary, rising food prices in, 146 Huq, Saleemul, 81

Index Hurricane Floyd, 124 Hurricane Katrina, 25, 80, 118 Hutchinson, Rob, 125 Hwang, Roland, 154 Hydrocarbons: definition of, 174. See also Fossil fuels Hydrogen fuel cells, 140, 174 Hydrogen fuel cell transport, 147–48 Hydrological cycle, 17, 19, 23, 174 Ice cores, xvi, xvii, 174 Iceland, oil replacement in, 152–53 Ikalukjuaq, Noire, 42 Illegal dumping, 162 Immelt, Jeffrey R., 163 India: drinking water supply in, 62; greenhouse gas emissions in, 155, 156; retreating mountain glaciers in, 62; rising food prices in, 146; rising sea levels in, 77; wind power in, 138 Indonesia, 75 Industrial Revolution, 2 Indy 500, running on ethanol, 146–47 Influenza, xix, 127 Infrared forcing, 1, 3, 174 Insurance industry, xv Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 42, 78–79, 99, 122, 124, 165 Inuit, 41–42 Iron fertilization (of oceans), 158–60, 174 Italy: flooding in, 65–66, 81–82; malaria in, 124–25 Jacamba Glacier, 67f Jain, Atul, 161 Japan, 7, 156; railroads in, 141; solar power in, 149; warming in, 35–36 Jellyfish, 91–92f Johnson, Leonard, 22 Jones, Adrian, 14 Kaiser, Dale, 31 Kalkstein, Laurence S., 127 Karl, Thomas, xv Karoly, David, 34 Keeling, Charles, 4

Keller, Michael, 118 Kelly, John, 150 Kepler, David E., 163 Kerr, Richard, 13, 85 Kiesecker, Joseph M., 113 Kilowatt, definition of, 174 Knutson, Thomas R., 27 Kobayashi, Mutsuo, 35 Koehn, Jonathan, 151 Koizumi, Junichiro, 35 Konviser, Bruce I., 65–66 Krajick, Kevin, 55 Krill, 58f, 59, 104 Kyoto Protocol, 150–51, 155–56, 157–58 Lake-effect snow, 20 Lake Tanganyika, 89–91 Lal, Rattan, 151 Lane, Stephen, 163 Langley, Dennis, 149–50 Larsen ice shelves, 56–57, 58 Lavers, Chris, 100 Lawton, Robert O., 110–11 Laxon, Seymour, 51 Leake, Jonathan, 13–14 Leggett, Jeremy, 122 Levene, Peter, xv Lobell, David, 101, 102 Loggerhead sea turtles, xix, 116f–17 Lomborg, Bjorn, 128 Loutre, Marie-France, 68 Lovelock, James, 160 Lovins, Amory, 140 Lynas, Mark, 46, 48 MacDonald, Jim, 52 Madagascar, 111 Malaria, xix, 121–22, 123–25, 127–29 Maple trees, 28–29 Marely, David, 110 Marine life, threats to, 86–87 Mars, 2 Martens, Pim, 123, 127 Martens, William, 123 Mass extinctions: within last century, 98; 250 million years ago, 98–100 McCain, John, 42

191

192

Index McEwen, Bill, 117–18 McKibben, Bill, xiii McKie, Robin, 65 Meacher, Michael, 32 Meehl, Gerald A., 18–19 Meltwater pulse, 55 Methane, xiv, 1, 2, 3, 5, 44; as biomass fuel, 148–49, 169; definition of, 174 Methane burp hypothesis, 10–11, 100; definition of, 174 Milly, P. C. D., 20 Mink, Patsy, 162 Mississippi River, 106 Molnia, Bruce, 45, 61 Monbiot, George, 142–43 Moohan, Jacqueline, 119 Mosquitoes, 36, 42, 45, 68, 104, 120, 121–22, 123–25, 124f, 127–28 Mote, Phillip, 64 Mountain glaciers, 60–68 Mountain pine bark beetles, 117 Mount Kilimanjaro, 62–64, 63f National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 79–80 Nattaq, Simon, 43 Nazarenko, Larissa, 11 Nelson, Lloyd, 108 Net metering, 148 Newcomen, Thomas, 2 New England, maple trees in, 28–29 New Guinea, cloud forests in, 111 New Zealand, 113–14, 156 Nielsen, Clay, 108 Nigam, Rajiv, 77 Nisbet, Euan, 64 Nixon, Joshua, 108 Northwest Passage, 53f Norway, 61, 162 Nuclear power, 134, 148, 160–61, 162 Nyberg, Johan, 27 Ocean circulation, 161–62 Ocean iron fertilization, 158–60, 174 Olivier, Jos, 7 O’Reilly, Catherine, 90 O’Riordan, Tim, 144, 152

Ozone, definition of, 174 Ozone depletion, 14–15, 54, 159, 174 Pacala, S., 133–34 Pachauri, Rajendra, xv, 10 Pacific Ocean islands, rising sea levels in, 80–81 Pakistan, 124 Paleoclimate, 79, 175 Paleotempestology, 27 Palmer, Martin, xvii Palmer Drought Severity Index, 23 Palm trees: in English gardens, 32–33; in southern Switzerland, 119f–20 Papua New Guinea, 124 Paris, railroads in, 141 Parmesan, Camille, 106 Parry, Martin, xiii Pataki, George E., 153 Payne, Roger, 60 Pearson, Paul, xvii Peck, Lloyd, 60 Pelosi, Nancy, 162 Penguins, 59f–60, 113 Permafrost, thawing of, xv, xvii, xviii, 6, 10, 42, 46, 48, 65, 175. See also Drunken forests; Feedback loops Personal transport changes, 140–42 Peru, 62, 66–68, 120 Pfirrmann, Eric, 92 Photovoltaic cells, 134, 138–39f, 148, 149, 175. See also Concentrating solar power Phytoplankton, 59, 73, 87, 114, 158–60, 175 Pimentel, David, 144 Plants and animals: species moving toward poles, 105–10. See also individual plant or animal Plass, Gilbert, 3 Poison ivy, 118–19 Polar bears, 50–52, 105 Polk, R. L., 153–54 Pollon, Michael, 145 Portocarrero, Cesar, 67–68 Post-apocalyptic greenhouse, 99 Pounds, J. Allen, 113 Prestrud, Pal, 41

Index Quelccaya ice cap, 66 Railroads, 141 Randolph, Sarah E., 128 Raupach, Mike, xvi, 6 Reiter, Paul, 128–29 Retallack, Greg, 100 Revelle, Roger, 3 Revkin, Andrew, 19 Reynolds, Anna, 34 Rice crop, 102–3 Riebesell, Ulf, 158 Rifkin, Jeremy, 147 Riggs, Stanley, 76 Rind, David, 44 Risbey, James, 34 Roberts, Callum M., 89 Rodgers, T. J., 139 Rogers, David J., 128 Root, Terry, 105–6 Rosentrater, Lynn, 51 Ross Ice Shelf, 54–55, 56 Rotstayn, Leon, 24 Russia, greenhouse gas emissions in, 155, 156 Sagar, Paul, 114 Samuels, Paul, 32 Sarmiento, Jorge, 68 Sato, Makiko, 9 Scambos, Ted, 55–57 Scandinavia, oil replacement in, 152 Schauer, Ursula, 40 Schlitter, Duane, 108 Schmidt, Gavin, 8 Schultz, Peter, 115 Schulze, Ernst-Detlef, 157 Scotland, seabirds in, 114–15 Seabirds, 113–14; penguins, 59f–60, 113 Seager, Richard, 85–86 Sea level rise: on Gulf of Mexico coast, 79–80; as human induced, 74–75; local examples, 76–78; negative effects of, 73; in Pacific Ocean islands, 80–81; speeding of, 78–79; stakes of, 75–76. See also Thermohaline circulation

Seals, 59 Sea turtles, loggerhead, xix, 116f–17 Seibel, Brad A., 161 Seijo, Alfredo, 120 Sequestration, 134, 175 Serreze, Mark, 41, 43 Setter, Tim L., 1–3 Seymour, Jamie, 91–92 Sharp, Phillip R., 145 Sheehy, John, 101 Shindell, Drew, 8 Siegel, Kassie, 105 Skeptics, 128, 175. See also Contrarians Skvarca, Pedro, 58 Smiraglia, Claudia, 65 Snowfall, 31 Socolow, R., 133–34 Solar power, 142, 148–49; concentrating solar power, 138–40 Soot, 11, 44, 79, 144, 175. See also Aerosols Spain: retreating mountain glaciers in, 61; solar power in, 138–39; wind power in, 137–38 Spalding, Mark, 89 Spruce bark beetles, 46–47f, 117 Steffen, Konrad, 49 Steiner, Achim, 112 Stevenson, Court, 76 Stewardship of the earth, 164–65, 175 Stott, Peter A., 18 Stratospheric cooling, 14 Street, Harry, 64 Sub-Saharan Africa, cuckoo in, 110 Suess, Hans, 3 Sugarcane, 145 Surplus to the Power Company, 148 Sweden, retreating mountain glaciers in, 61 Swisher, Randall, 138 Switzerland: palms in southern, 119f–20; retreating mountain glaciers in, 61 Tanganyika, 89 Tanzania, 62–64 Tebaldi, Claudia, 18–19 Termites, 121

193

194

Index Thermal inertia, xiv, 10, 74, 155 Thermal opacity, 9 Thermohaline circulation: debate over, 85–86; definition of, 175; evidence of breaking down, 84–85; warming effect on, 10, 73, 82–84, 83f Thompson, Lonnie, 64 Thompson, Tom, 52 Tipping points, xiv–xv, 9, 10, 40; definition of, 175. See also Feedback loops Toepfer, Klaus, 62 Trauth, Stan, 107 Tree planting, 156–58 Trenberth, Kevin, xv Tropical mountain forests, 110–12 Tuberculosis, 122 Tuleya, Robert E., 27 Turkey, rising food prices in, 146 Tuvalu, 80 Tyndall, John, 2 United Kingdom: air travel in, 142–43; fossil fuel use in, 6; mosquitoes in, 125 United States: air travel in, 142, 143; biomass fuel in, 149–50; carbon dioxide sequestration and, 161–62; carbon tax and, 151; ethanol in, 145–46; farming technology in, 151–52; fossil fuel use in, xiii, 6, 7; geothermal energy in, 150; greenhouse gas emissions in, xvi, 153–54, 155–56; peaking runoff in, 30; retreating mountain glaciers in, 61; rising sea levels in, 76, 77f–78f, 79–80; solar power in, 139–40, 149; wind power in, 136, 138 UV-B radiation, 15, 113

Van Pelt, Sarah, 151 Vaughn, David, 56 Venice, flooding in, 81 Venus, 1–2, 13–14, 175 Verburg, Piet, 90 Verschuren, Dirk, 91 Vescovi, Kay, 107 Volk, Tyler, 160 Wallace, John M., 19 Walsh, Patrick J., 161 Walther, Gian-Reto, 97, 103–4, 119–20 Warming, and reducing rice yields, 102 Warren, Rick, 165 Watt, James, 2 Watt-Cloutier, Shelia, 40–41, 42 Weart, Spencer R., 83 Wegener, Alfred, 158 Weller, Gunter, 44–45 West Africa, monsoons in, 25 West Antarctic, 10 Western toads, 112–13 Whales, 59, 60 Wickett, Michael E., 86–87 Wigley, Thomas, 75, 155 Wignall, Paul, 99 Wilson, Scott, 67 Wind power: capacity surges in, 136–40; definition of, 175 Wohlforth, Charles, 46 Yellow fever, 120, 121, 122, 127 Yohe, Gary, 106 Yuwono, Arief, 75 Zimmerman, Bob, 127–28 Ziska, Ledwis, 119 Zooplankton, 87

About the Author BRUCE E. JOHANSEN is Frederick W. Kayser Professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. He has been teaching and writing in the School of Communication at UNO since 1982. Johansen writes frequently about environmental subjects, including Global Warming in the 21st century (Praeger, 3 vols. 2006), The Global Warming Desk Reference (Greenwood, 2001), The Dirty Dozen: Toxic Chemicals and the Earth’s Future (Praeger, 2003), and Indigenous Peoples and Environmental Issues (Greenwood, 2004).