Climate Change and Developing Countries (Advances in Global Change Research) [1 ed.] 1402001045, 9781402001048, 9780306479809

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

ADVANCES IN GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH VOLUME 11

Editor-in-Chief Martin Beniston, Institute of Geography, University of Fribourg, Perolles, Switzerland

Editorial Advisory Board B. Allen-Diaz, Department ESPM-Ecosystem Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, CA, U.S.A. R.S. Bradley, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, U.S.A. W. Cramer, Department of Global Change and Natural Systems, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany. H.F. Diaz, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO, U.S.A. S. Erkman, Institute for Communication and Analysis of Science and Technology – ICAST, Geneva, Switzerland. M. Lal, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India. U. Luterbacher, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland. I. Noble, CRC for Greenhouse Accounting and Research School of Biological Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. L. Tessier, Institut Mediterranéen d’Ecologie et Paléoécologie, Marseille, France. F. Toth, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria M.M. Verstraete, Space Applications Institute, EC Joint Research Centre, Ispra (VA), Italy.

The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

by

N.H. Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India

and

Jayant A. Sathaye Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, U.S.A.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE

xi

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

xiii

1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Impacts of Climate Change 1.2 Tracing the History of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1.3 Global Efforts to Stabilize Climate Change 1.4 Climate Change Mitigation and Developing Countries 1.5 Outline of the Book

2 4 5 7 9

2 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 11 2.1 Introduction 11 2.2 Greenhouse Gases, Aerosols and Radiative Forcing 12 2.3 Growth in Concentration of Greenhouse Gases 14 2.4 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 15 2.4.1 Global annual budget 2.4.2 Projection of emissions according to SRES scenarios 15 21 2.4.3 Projection of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere 22 2.5 Share of Developing Countries in Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions 22 2.5.1 Share of developing countries in annual carbon budget 2.5.2 Contribution of industrialized and developing countries to cumulative 22 emissions during the twentieth century 2.5.3 Projections of share of developing countries in fossil fuel 23 related carbon dioxide emissions 2.5.4 Carbon dioxide emissions and GDP in selected developing 24 and industrialized countries 2.5.5 emissions per unit of GDP 25 2.5.6 Growth in aggregate GDP and emissions in China 26 26 2.6 Methane Emissions Projections 27 2.7 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2.8 Greenhouse Gas Inventory; Case Studies of Argentina, Indonesia and 28 Zimbabwe 33 2.9 Emissions Inventory and Developing Countries 33 2.9.1 Factors contributing to quality of greenhouse gas inventory 33 2.9.2 Measures to improve greenhouse gas inventory 2.10 Implications of Reliable Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 34 35 2.11 Conclusions

vi

3 CARBON EMISSIONS – HISTORICAL TRENDS AND FUTURE SCENARIOS 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Regional and Country-Specific Emissions 3.3 Methodology 3.3.1 Historical trends in emissions 3.3.2 Future scenarios of emissions 3.3.3 Sources of data and methods of analysis 3.4 Decomposition Analysis of Emissions – World 3.5 Decomposition Analysis of Emissions – Asia 3.6 Decomposition Analysis of Emissions - Latin America 3.7 Decomposition Analysis of Emissions – Africa 3.8 Inter-Country Comparison of Economic Growth and Emissions 3.8.1 Past trends of emissions 3.8.2 Projections of emissions 3.9 Conclusions

37 38 39 40 41 41 43 46 51 55 57 57 59 62

4 CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Projected Patterns of Climate Change 4.2.1 Predicting climate change 4.2.2 Observed changes in climate system 4.2.3 Projections of climate change 4.3 Assessment of Vulnerability to and Impacts of Climate Change 4.4 Observed Impacts of Recent Regional Climate Change 4.5 Projected Impact of Climate Change on Food Production and Security 4.5.1 Impact of climate change on agriculture and food security; Second Assessment Report of the IPCC 4.5.2 Impact of climate change on food production - regional impacts 4.5.3 Impact of climate change on agriculture and food security; Third Assessment Report of the IPCC 4.5.4 Future food production and climate change according to other studies 4.5.5 Uncertainty of projections of climate change on agriculture 4.6 Impact of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems 4.7 Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources, Health, and Sea Level Rise 4.7.1 Water resources and stress 4.7.2 Human health 4.7.3 Sea level rise 4.7.4 Human infrastructure and habitats 4.8 Greenhouse Damage Assessment 4.9 Adaptation to Climate Change 4.9.1 Types of adaptation 4.9.2 Why is adaptation necessary? 4.9.3 Generic adaptation strategies

63 64 64 66 66 69 70 71 72 73 73 75 76 77 80 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88

vii

4.9.4 Sector-specific adaptation strategies 4.10 Barriers and Approaches to Promotion of Adaptation Strategies 4.11 Adaptation at Global, National and Local Levels 4.12 Mitigation Versus Adaptation 4.13 Conclusions

89 91 92 93 94

5 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION 5.1 The Approach to Mitigation 5.1.1 Climate change mitigation studies: Background 5.1.2 Methodology for mitigation studies 5.1.3 The structure of a mitigation assessment 5.1.4 Time horizon of a mitigation assessment 5.2 Mitigation Opportunities in the Energy Sector 5.2.1 Primary mitigation options 5.2.2 Results from greenhouse gas mitigation studies: Bottom-up approach 5.2.3 Results from greenhouse gas mitigation studies: Multicriteria approach 5.2.4 Results from greenhouse gas mitigation studies: Top-down approach 5.2.5 Energy sector mitigation; Third Assessment Report of the IPCC 5.2.6 Summary of key findings from energy sector mitigation studies 5.3 Forest Sector Mitigation in Developing Countries 5.3.1 Status of forests in developing countries 5.3.2 Implications of forest loss, degradation and low afforestation rates 5.3.3 Mitigation opportunities in the forestry sector 5.3.4 Methodology for assessment of forestry sector activities 5.3.5 Land availability for mitigation activities 5.3.6 Mitigation potential of land use, land-use change and forestry sector 5.3.7 Mitigation potential assessment for seven developing countries 5.3.8 Cost-effectiveness of mitigation 5.3.9 Investment for realizing mitigation potential in the forestry sector 5.3.10 Comparison of energy and forestry sector mitigation potential 5.4 Agriculture 5.4.1 Features of the agriculture sector activities 5.4.2 Mitigation opportunities for in the agriculture sector 5.4.3 Methane emissions reduction from agriculture sector 5.4.4 Mitigation of nitrous oxide 5.4.5 Methane and nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation potential 5.4.6 Methane mitigation potential and cost-effectiveness 5.4.7 Mitigation potential in agriculture sector; Third Assessment Report of the IPCC 5.4.8 Conclusions on mitigation activities in the agricultural sector 5.5 Conclusions

97 98 99 100 102 104 104 105 113 114 118 119 120 121 122 123 126 129 131 137 138 143 144 144 145 146 149 153 154 155 156 157 158

6 POLICIES, PROGRAMS, AND MEASURES 6.1 Barriers to Mitigation Options in Developing Countries 6.1.1 Generic barriers 6.1.2 Technology-specific barriers

162 162 165

viii 6.2 Policies, Programs and Measures to Overcome Barriers 6.2.1 Macro policies, programs and measures 6.2.2 Sectoral policies, programs and measures 6.3 Regulatory Instruments 6.3.1 Energy and environmental performance standards 6.3.2 Procurement policies 6.3.3 Environmental legislation 6.4 Demand-side Management Programs 6.5 Renewable Energy Programs 6.6 Land Use Land-Use Change and Forestry Sector 6.7 Agriculture Sector 6.8 Policies and Measures to Promote Adaptation Strategies 6.9 Information Programs 6.10 Summary

166 167 168 172 172 173 173 173 174 175 176 176 176 177

7 GLOBAL MECHANISMS FOR ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE 7.1 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY 7.1.1 Genesis 7.1 .2 Pilot phase of GEF 7.1.3 Restructured phase 7.1.4 Eligibility criteria and operational principles 7.1.5 Operational programs under climate change portfolio 7.1.6 Project cycle 7.1 .7 GEF funding of climate change focal area 7.1.8 Performance and impact of GEF programs 7.1.9 GEF: Problems and challenges 7.1.10 Potential measures to overcome project cycle hurdle 7.1.11 Future of GEF 7.2 CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM 7.2.1 Background 7.2.2 How might CDM work? 7.2.3 CDM institutions 7.2.4 Concepts, definitions and terminology 7.2.5 Project boundary and monitoring domain 7.2.6 Baselines and additionality 7.2.7 Meeting criteria for sustainable development 7.2.8 Monitoring, evaluation, reporting, verification and certification of CDM projects 7.2.9 CDM: Implications for LULUCF sector 7.2.10 CDM and adaptation 7.2.11 CDM: Contentious issues 7.2.12 Project developer's perspective 7.2.13 NGOs’ perspective 7.2.14 Perspective of the developing country governments 7.2.15 Developing country preparedness for CDM 7.2.16 CDM and developing countries

179 179 180 181 182 183 183 185 188 189 192 193 197 197 199 202 203 205 206 211 212 215 217 217 221 221 222 222 223

ix

8 CLIMATE CHANGE: DEVELOPMENT, EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY 8.1. Introduction 8.2 Linkage Between Climate Change, Development, Equity and Sustainability 8.2.1 Development 8.2.2 Equity 8.2.3 Sustainable development 8.3 Differential Contribution and Impacts 8.3.1 Past and cumulative emissions 8.3.2 Projected CO2 emissions from developing countries 8.3.3 Differential impacts of climate change 8.4 Costs of Adaptation, Mitigation and Burden Sharing 8.4.1 Mitigation and adaptation 8.4.2 Estimating the cost of adaptation and mitigation 8.4.3 Co-benefits of mitigation actions 8.4.4 Implications of Kyoto mechanisms on economic development in developing countries 8.5 Global Climate Change Stabilization; Participation of Developing Countries 8.5.1 Burden sharing of mitigation and adaptation costs 8.5.2 Options for burden sharing 8.5.3 Burden sharing mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol 8.6 Cost-Effectiveness, Equity and Sustainability

225 227 227 228 231 232 233 233 234 235 235 236 237 238 239 239 240 242 244

9 CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 9.1 Climate Change and the Stake for Developing Countries 247 9.2 Stabilization of Greenhouse Gases in Atmosphere to Mitigate 249 Climate Change 9.3 The Roles of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol in Addressing Climate Change 251 252 9.4 GEF and Developing Countries 9.5 Climate Change; Technology Transfer, Capital Flows and Capacity Building 253 9.5.1 Barriers to transfer of ESTs, capital and institutional capacity 253 254 9.5.2 Strategies for transfer of ESTs, capital and institutional capacity 255 9.5.3 Global Mechanisms to address climate change 9.6 Clean Development Mechanism 255 9.7 Issues Relevant to CDM and Kyoto Protocol 256 9.7.1 Adaptation 256 9.7.2 Supplementarity 257 9.7.3 Additionality of funding to UNFCCC and Kyoto mechanisms 258 258 9.7.4 LULUCF activities under CDM 259 9.7.5 Sustainable development 9.8 The Kyoto Protocol and Economic Development 260 9.9 Climate Change Negotiations and Developing Countries; Future Directions 262 REFERENCES

267

INDEX

283

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PREFACE Among global environmental issues, climate change has received the largest attention of national and global policy makers, researchers, industry, multilateral banks and NGOs. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental problems with unique characteristics. It is global, long-term (up to several centuries) and involves complex interactions between climatic, environmental, economic, political, institutional and technological pressures. It is of great significance to developing countries as all the available knowledge suggests that they, and particularly their poorer inhabitants, are highly vulnerable to climate impacts. The projected warming of 1.4 to 5.8° C by 2100 and the related changes in rainfall pattern, rise in sea-level and increased frequency of extreme events (such as drought, hurricanes and storms) are likely to threaten food security, increase fresh water scarcity, lead to decline in biodiversity, increase occurrence of vector-borne diseases, cause flooding of coastal settlements, etc. Recognizing the potential threat of severe disruptions, the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development was organized in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to begin to address ways to reduce these impacts, which led to the formulation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This Convention and the subsequent Kyoto Protocol recognize “the common but differentiated responsibility” of developing and industrialized countries in addressing climate change. Developing countries thus have a unique role to play in formulating a sound, reasoned, and well informed response to the threat of climate change. The science as well as policy aspects of climate change are continually evolving. As climate change touches all aspects of human activity, and hence virtually every academic discipline has something to offer in understanding the science and in formulating policies to reduce emissions and to address its adverse impacts. As a consequence, the amount of information that has been generated on the subject of climate change in the last ten years alone could probably fill many a small library. At regular intervals, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produces an excellent assessment of the literature available on the subject and special and technical reports on several aspects of climate change. There are books that discuss the science of climate change, the vulnerability of nations to its impact and ways of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. But there is a paucity of books that examine the various aspects of climate change and their implications to developing countries in an integrated manner. Developing countries should have access to information, based on analysis and informed debate. This would enable policy makers to take initiatives at the global negotiations as well as formulate and implement national policies, programs and measures to address climate change and sustainable development. This book fulfils that need, by providing data and analyses of the many issues that impact the developing world in a single volume. The main goal of the book is to provide a balanced presentation of the various perspectives on climate change as they affect the future role of developing countries in the polarized debate on climate change. The topics discussed include: the importance of climate

xii

change to developing countries, why they should pay more attention to it and how they can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change while also gaining local and national co-benefits through their actions. In this book, we provide a synthesis of the following information: Historical, current and projected greenhouse gas emissions and climate change Impact of climate change on natural and socio-economic systems Mitigation opportunities, potential costs and benefits Barriers to mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies and measures to address them Issues related to the Climate Convention, particularly development, equity and sustainable development, and mitigation Global mechanisms concerned with climate change Capacity building, technology transfer and investment flow under the Climate Convention The developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than the industrialized countries and hence have a greater stake in the success of global climate negotiations for achieving greenhouse gas stabilization in the atmosphere at the earliest, to minimize the potential adverse impacts on future generations. Developing countries also need to analyze suitable sustainable development paths along with the economic, social and environmental implications of their adoption. Renewable energy technologies and forest conservation, for instance, hold the key to long-term greenhouse gas stabilization strategy. Developing countries should explore policies, institutions, programs and measures needed to implement such environmentally sustainable technologies (ESTs) and strategies. Industrialized countries are likely to assist developing countries in their efforts to shift to a sustainable development path through transfer of ESTs, investment in ESTs and capacity building activities. Multiple environmental and developmental goals can be achieved by the development and adoption of technologies, policies and measures that recognize the inextricable linkages among environmental problems and sustainable development needs. This requires policy research and informed debate in the developing countries and recognition of the importance and need for addressing climate change and sustainable development issues. This book is intended to provide information to policy makers, civil society, researchers and other climate change stakeholders to enable informed decision-making.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This book is a result of our close association and shared vision on issues related to climate change and sustainable and participatory development. We have worked together in the last ten years under several fora; Tropical Forest F-7 network, IPCC, Conference of Parties of the Climate Convention, Global Environment Facility Programs, and other efforts to address climate change. The ideas have been honed from our work experience in developing countries. We would like to express our gratitude to many colleagues who have contributed to our work over the past decade. Madhav Gadgil, who introduced me (NHR) to research on climate change and encouraged me over the years; my colleagues from the Indian Institute of Science, Niranjan V. Joshi, R. Sukumar and B. N. Raghunandan for their support; Dennis Tirpak and Paul Schwengels who were instrumental in supporting my (JAS) research; Mark Levine, Lee Schipper and Steve Meyers, who contributed to the discussion and writing of many reports on climate change and developing countries at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; and Ken Andrasko, Willy Makundi and the F7 group who helped support and shape ideas and discussions on land-use change and forestry. Other individuals who have shared and supported our goals over the past decade on research related to climate change include Ramesh Bhatia, John Christensen, Ogunlade Davidson, Robert Dixon, Prodipto Ghosh, Jose Goldemberg, Kirsten Halsnaes, Maurice Lefranc, Alan Miller, Irving Mintzer, Nandita and Puran Mongia, Lynn Price, Kirk Smith, Edward Vine, Robert Watson and Ernst Worrell. We appreciate the efforts of P. R. Shukla and Dilip Ahuja who reviewed many chapters and gave insightful comments; Indu K. Murthy who worked hard and contributed much to the preparation of the camera-ready manuscript; and P. Sudha and G. Sangeetha for assistance in the production of this book. We also wish to thank several institutions and individuals who helped with the writing and production of this book. We drew heavily on a report by Katja Schumacher and Jayant Sathaye, Carbon Emissions Trends for Developing Countries and Countries with Economies in Transition, LBNL-44546, 1999, in the material for Chapter 3, and a paper by Jayant Sathaye and N. H. Ravindranath (1998), “Climate change mitigation in the energy and forestry sectors of developing countries”, Annual Review of Energy and Environment, Vol. 23 for Chapter 5. We have used information from IPCC reports in several chapters, and would like to acknowledge the contributions made by IPCC author colleagues. We are grateful to many organizations for permitting use of appropriate figures and tables from their reports and publications throughout this book. Work on climate change at the Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science is supported by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, India, and that at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, by the US Department of Energy, and their support is acknowledged. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States or any other government, or the Regents of the University of California. Finally, we would like to thank our wives, R. Shailaja and Anuradha Sathaye, for enriching our lives and for their enduring support for our work.

N. H. RAVINDRANATH & JAYANT A. SATHAYE

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges facing humanity with implications for food production, natural ecosystems, fresh water supply, health, etc. According to the recent IPCC scientific assessment, the earth's climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era (IPCC, 2001). Further, there is evidence to show that most of the warming (of 0.1 °C per decade) observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. The ten warmest years since the recording of global surface temperature began 140 years ago have all occurred in the last 15 years. Of these, 1998 was the warmest year on record, followed by 1997, 1995, 1990 and 2000 (Figure 1.1). The global surface temperature in 2000 was 15.3 degrees Celsius (°C) or six-tenths of a degree above the long-term average. The warming of the earth in the century is likely to have been more than in any century in the past 1000 years for the Northern Hemisphere. A higher global temperature is an important indicator that the earth’s climate is changing. But, the cooling between 1998 and 1999 illustrates that even when there is a strong long-term warming trend, significant year-to-year changes in either direction can occur as a result of natural processes within the climate system.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that the global mean temperature is likely to increase between 1.4 to 5.8°C by 2100. This unprecedented increase is expected to have severe impacts on the global hydrological system, ecosystems, sea level, crop production and related processes.

2

Climate Change and Developing Countries

The impact would be particularly severe in the tropics, which mainly consist of developing countries. This book explores the possibility of reducing the harshness of such impacts by pursuing appropriate technologies, policies and other measures to control the growth of human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to climate change. The important greenhouse gases released by human activities are carbon dioxide methane nitrous oxide chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and ozone. Energy from the sun drives the earth’s weather and climate; in turn, the earth radiates energy back into space. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (water vapor, and other gases) trap some of the outgoing energy and heat the earth’s surface using the sun's energy, somewhat like the glass panels in a greenhouse. This 'greenhouse effect' maintains the earth’s average temperature at a hospitable level. The studies of ancient ice cores from Antarctica and elsewhere show a close correlation between the concentration of in the atmosphere and the global mean annual temperature for the past 160 thousand years. Between the and centuries, the earth’s concentration in the atmosphere remained around 280 parts per million volume (ppmv) for almost 1000 years. The recorded concentration increased to about 315 ppmv by 1957 and more dramatically since then to about 368 ppmv in 2000. Releases of future emissions are projected to increase its atmospheric concentration to a range between 550-1000 ppmv by 2100 - levels that have not been detected on earth in the past 400 thousand years. While the atmospheric concentration of has increased nearly 30%, that of other greenhouse gases, such as methane, has more than doubled, and nitrous oxide concentration has risen by about 15%. Methane and nitrous oxide trap more heat than and are hence more potent greenhouse gases. Increase in the atmospheric concentration of these gases has increased the heat-trapping capability of the earth’s atmosphere. We have already seen that one impact of higher greenhouse gas concentration is an increase in temperature. A warmer climate near the earth's surface would result in changes in sea level, snow cover, ice extent and precipitation, evidence of which may be found in the occurrence of more active hydrological cycles with heavier precipitation events and shifts in precipitation, widespread retreat of non-polar glaciers, increases in sea level and ocean-heat content, and decreases in snow cover and sea-ice extent and thickness (IPCC, 2001b). Models project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases result in changes in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, cyclones, storms and heat waves. 1.1 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

It is important to understand the linkages between climate change and other more immediate developmental concerns. This will help to improve the capacity to monitor and measure the impact of climate change and develop the infrastructure and public systems required for adapting to such impacts. These immediate concerns relate to forest and land degradation, fresh water shortage, food security and air and water pollution. All over the world, forests, woodlands and grasslands are being degraded or destroyed, marginal lands are being turned into deserts and natural ecosystems are being reduced or fragmented, further threatening biodiversity, water

Introduction

3

supply and soil quality. Globally, about 1900 million hectares (Mha) are affected by land degradation, of which, about 550 Mha are in Asia and the Pacific, 500 Mha in Africa and about 300 Mha in Latin America (UNEP, 2000). Desertification is a significant threat to the arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas of the world, particularly the Savannas of Africa, Southeast Asia, parts of south Asia, the Great Plains and the Pampas of America. Deforestation continued in the tropics at about 13.4 Mha annually during the 1990s. Climate change will exacerbate the impacts of deforestation and other economic pressures, leading to further land degradation and desertification. Increasing global temperatures cause thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of Antarctic and other ice caps, resulting in rising sea levels. The global sea level has risen 10 to 20 centimeters (cm) during the twentieth century, and IPCC scenarios project it to increase between 9 to 88 cm by 2100, depending on the projected increase of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 200la). Populations that inhabit small islands and/or low-lying coastal areas are at particular risk of severe social and. economic disruptions from sea-level rise and storm surges that could displace the large coastal populations. The widespread retreat of glaciers and icecaps in the century will also lead to higher surface temperatures on land and increasing water stress. By 2025, as much as two-thirds of the world population, much of it in the developing world, may be subjected to moderate to high water stress. Estimates of the effects of climate change on crop yields are predominantly negative for the tropics, even when adaptation and direct effects of on plant processes are taken into consideration. Ecological productivity and biodiversity will be altered by climate change and sealevel rise, with an increased risk of extinction of some vulnerable species. Significant disruptions of ecosystems from disturbances such as fire, drought, pest infestation, invasion of species, storms and coral bleaching events are expected to increase. Even though the ability to project regional differences in impact is still emerging, the consequences of climate change are projected to be more drastic in the tropical regions. This is true for all sectors that are likely to bear the brunt of climate change - sea level, water resources, ecosystems, crop production, fisheries, and human health. The populations of the developing world are more vulnerable as they are not prepared to withstand a deleterious impact. The global economic impacts are likely to be negative for many developing countries for even the lowest global mean temperature increase. The impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately upon developing countries and the poor populations within the countries, and thereby exacerbate inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources. Populations in developing countries are likely to be exposed to relatively high risks of adverse impacts from climate change. In addition, poverty and absence of institutions create conditions of low adaptive capacity in these countries. Most developing countries lack the necessary infrastructure to deal with such exigent situations as they are preoccupied with more pressing concerns such as malnutrition, drinking water supply, primary education, a rapidly growing young population and urbanization, lack of infrastructure, import dependence and the difficulties in maintaining a stable macro economy. Their environmental concerns are dominated by the problem of lack of access to technology and investment.

4

Climate Change and Developing Countries

In the global climate change debate, the issue of largest importance to developing countries is reducing their vulnerability and increasing their capacity to adapt to projected impacts of climate change. Although there is a visible shift in the global discussions towards adaptation at the Climate Convention-related meetings, the focus continues to be on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation can complement mitigation as a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks. Developing countries have to carefully evaluate the need for, and the roles of global and national institutions in promoting both mitigation and adaptation programs. Mitigation and adaptation actions can, if appropriately designed, advance sustainable development and equity both within and across countries and between generations. The pervasiveness of inertia and the possibility of irreversibility in the consequences of the interactions between climate, ecological and socio-economic systems are major reasons why anticipatory adaptation and mitigation actions are beneficial. Thus, the inertia and uncertainty imply that targets and timetables must be fixed for avoiding dangerous levels of interference in the climate system. A number of opportunities to exercise adaptation and mitigation options may be lost if action is delayed (IPCC, 2001). 1.2 TRACING THE HISTORY OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS The global carbon cycle involves interaction between the atmosphere, oceans, soils and vegetation and fossil fuel deposits. The oceans contain a stock of 39,000 giga tons of carbon (Gt C), fossil fuel deposits about 16,000 Gt C, soils and vegetation about 2500 Gt C, and the atmosphere about 760 Gt C (Bolin and Sukumar, 2000). Since 1850, land-use change is estimated to have released about 136 Gt C and fossil fuel combustion, about 270 Gt C. Of this, 180 Gt C has ended up in the atmosphere, while 110 Gt C has been absorbed by growing vegetation and the remainder by the oceans. It is the increasing concentration of atmospheric that is the cause for concern about global climate change. Why are greenhouse gas concentrations increasing? The combustion of fossil fuels is the primary reason for the increased concentrations of Between 1990 and 1999, an estimated 6.3 Gt C/year was released due to the combustion of fossil fuels, and another 1.6 Gt C/year was released due to the burning of forest vegetation. This was offset by the absorption of 2.3 Gt C/year each by growing vegetation and the oceans. This left a balance of 3.3 Gt C/year in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001a). Controlling the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, land-use change and the burning of vegetation are therefore obvious opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions can lessen the projected rate and magnitude of warming and sea level rise. The greater the reductions in emissions and the earlier they are introduced, the smaller and slower the projected warming and the rise in sea levels. Future climate change is thus determined by historic, current and future emissions. Historically, the industrialized countries have been the primary contributors to emissions of According to one estimate industrialized countries are responsible for about 83% of the rise in cumulative fossil fuel related emissions since 1800 (Loske, 1996). In the 1990s, they accounted for about 53% of the 6.3 Gt C/year, which was released as from fossil fuel combustion, though they have contributed little to the release of from the burning of vegetation. According to

Introduction

5

another estimate, developing countries accounted for only 37% of cumulative emissions from industrial sources and land-use change during the period 1900 to 1999 (WRI, 2001), but because of their higher population and economic growth rates, the fossil-fuel emissions from developing countries are likely to soon match or exceed those from the industrialized countries. Large countries, such as China and India, could match the USA's year 2000 greenhouse gas emissions within two to three decades. Historically, then the responsibility for emissions increase lies largely with the industrialized world, though the developing countries are likely to be the source of an increasing proportion of future increases. 1.3 GLOBAL EFFORTS TO STABILIZE CLIMATE CHANGE The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) held in 1992 at Rio de Janeiro laid the framework for the eventual stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A key goal of the Convention is: “Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner'' (UNFCCC, 1992). Subsequently, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol reasserted the importance of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and adhering to sustainable development principles. The Protocol laid out guidelines and rules regarding the extent to which each industrialized country should reduce its emissions of six greenhouse gases – methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbon, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons. The last three are man-made gases, byproducts of foam production, refrigeration, and air conditioning. The Kyoto Protocol requires industrialized countries (listed as Annex-B countries in the Protocol) to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by a weighted average of 5.2%, based on the 1990 greenhouse gas emissions. The reduction is to be achieved by the five-year period, 2008 to 2012. The Kyoto Protocol does not mandate developing countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The Kyoto reduction, however, is pitifully inadequate to achieve a stabilization of climate change by 2100. Indeed, even the most stringent IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenario shows the achievement of only a 550 ppmv concentration by this date, which is already well above the 368 ppmv level of 2000. A continual reduction, similar to that stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol for the 2008-2012 period, will be needed in the future in order to begin to stabilize longterm greenhouse gas emissions. Even if stabilization of greenhouse gases is achieved at say 450 or 550 ppmv, global warming would still continue for several decades and sea levels would continue to rise for several centuries. It is abundantly clear, however, that industrialized countries alone cannot achieve this reduction. Even if their emissions were magically reduced to zero, the current trends of growing emissions from developing countries alone could force the atmospheric concentration to exceed the 550 ppmv level noted above. The participation of developing countries, and a reluctant USA, which has stated that it does not intend to ratify the Kyoto Protocol but will continue to examine technological opportunities

6

Climate Change and Developing Countries

for longer-term stabilization of climatic change, is essential for a successful worldwide effort to arrest the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. What is the best method to equitably distribute the burden of stabilizing climate change among the countries? This issue lies at the heart of much of the ongoing negotiations under the auspices of the UNFCCC. India has suggested that the 'right' to pollute the atmosphere be apportioned to all countries on the basis of their population. Using this gauge, China and India, the only countries with populations in excess of a billion each, could legitimately emit greenhouse gases to a greater extent than other countries with lesser population. But, as their greenhouse gas emissions today are less than this proposed allocation, they could ‘sell' some of the 'rights' to the industrialized countries. Other countries have suggested schemes based on inherited and future emissions, a country’s contribution to temperature change, GDP, land area and other resource endowments. Countries usually propose burdensharing formulas that favor their economies, and, in Chapter 8, we provide an overview of these alternative burden-sharing arrangements. Some of the issues which may determine whether or not the developing countries will decide to adopt policies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions include: What are the technologies available to them? How much funds will be needed for implementing the technologies? What would be the co-benefits, in terms of simultaneous reduction of domestic air and other pollutants, increased economic growth and jobs? Other considerations that are likely to have a bearing on the decision of developing countries, but which are still in the realm of debate, are: To what extent should industrialized countries provide financial and technical support to developing countries to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reduction? Under what conditions would a mechanism dealing with such matters be viable given the present rhetoric, which is lukewarm towards fund and technology transfer? Technology transfer is an oft-talked about subject that eludes bounding. Much has been written about this topic, and a recent IPCC report details the methodological and technological aspects of technology transfer for climate change mitigation and adaptation (Metz et al., 2001). Of course, the developing countries' main concern is to get proven and subsidized environmentally sustainable technologies that will allow them to tunnel through to a less greenhouse gasemissions-intensive future that the industrialized countries already enjoy, or might, soon. The governments of the industrialized countries, on the other hand, are willing to equip the developing countries with information about such technologies, but are reluctant to fund large-scale transfer of such technologies. They point out that most environmentally sustainable technologies are in the hands of the private sector and it is they who should take the initiative. The successful implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options would need to overcome technical, economic, political, cultural, social, behavioral, and/or institutional barriers that prevent the full exploitation of the technological, economic, and social opportunities of these options. In Chapters 6 and 9, we examine these issues and suggest approaches that the industrialized and developing countries may pursue to reduce the barriers to, and create a fund for, the transfer of environmentally sound technologies. Most greenhouse gas mitigation or adaptation technologies are designed to provide co-benefits such as, reduction of local air pollution, improvements in energy productivity, conservation of biodiversity and protection of watersheds.

Introduction

7

Such co-benefits could induce the developing countries to adopt a more aggressive posture towards reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Over the longer term, as the Convention and the Protocol process unfolds, developing countries are concerned that they may be pressured into accepting limits on their future greenhouse gas emissions. Their concerns in this context include: Would such limits hamper their aspirations for economic development? Is it possible that such limits may be established while promoting sustainable development and equity? One way to resolve these concerns would be to link the emissions limit to sustainable development and equity targets for each country. For instance, a developing country that chooses to accept greenhouse gas limits may be rewarded for meeting or exceeding the greenhouse gas limit, but not penalized for not meeting it. Such approaches are discussed in Chapter 8 of this book. 1.4 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES The developing countries are a diverse group, much more so than the industrialized countries. Their incomes per capita range from a few hundreds to thousands of US dollars. Their annual emissions range from negligible quantity in countries such as Nepal, Sudan and Uganda (less than 50 kg per capita per year) to over a ton per capita in countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, south Africa and Venezuela, compared to about six tons of carbon per capita for the US. There are also vast differences in their fossil fuel and forest resources. On account of their diversity, these countries have taken different positions on many emissions-related issues. A small number are willing to undertake voluntary commitments to curb their emissions, while others have expressed strong reservations about the philosophical basis for determining the protocol for reducing emissions. Many African and Asian countries opposed the inclusion of land use, land-use change and forestry activities under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, while most Latin American nations supported it. Those countries that have been under the colonial yoke are wary, as they fear that multinationals might use climate change to dominate their small and fragile economies. Such differences also prevail within each country, among government departments that stand to benefit or lose from CDM, and the private sector. The Kyoto Protocol contains the CDM, which permits industrialized countries to initiate projects in developing countries to promote their sustainable development and help them reach their Kyoto emissions reduction commitments. The CDM has the potential to bring about emissions reduction at low cost, as it facilitates the implementation of projects to reduce emissions beyond the industrialized world, wherever low cost opportunities may exist. Operationalizing the CDM within a developing country, however, could be problematic. Industry and private sectors view CDM as a means to obtain modern technology and investment capital. But non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and a section of the academic community and political parties view it as allowing industrialized countries an easy and low-cost route to meeting their greenhouse gas emissions reduction commitments, without adequate domestic action to achieve real and long-term reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. There are also diverse views

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Climate Change and Developing Countries

on categories of technologies to be promoted under CDM - energy efficient technologies, emitting fossil fuel technologies, renewable energy systems and land-use change and forestry activities. In this book, we explore these issues in depth. Technical issues that need to be dealt with care are highlighted. Also discussed are the non-technical issues that have a philosophical basis or an unfortunate past history, the reason for whose sole pursuit is their use as a tactical negotiating weapon. Beyond the normal rules of project implementation, the CDM will require a validation of 'without-project' baseline emissions, a monitoring plan, and verification of the greenhouse gas reductions claimed by the project. The detailed rules and modalities for CDM have been agreed to and Chapter 7 of this book provides information on these issues. The chapter provides brief guidelines on steps that project developers need to take in order to design projects for this purpose. An agreement on the rules, modalities, methods, guidelines etc., in operationalizing the Kyoto Protocol at the meeting of the Conference of Parties during 2001, has paved the way for implementing the CDM and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for the first commitment period from 2008 to 2012. Negotiations are expected to start soon on the emissions reduction targets and other related topics for the second commitment period (beyond 2012), and on sustainable development issues. In the future negotiations, developing countries will be under increasing pressure to participate in global efforts to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. This, however, will depend on the progress made by the industrialized countries towards meeting the provisions of the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. The pursuit of these goals will in turn affect the opportunities for, and success of, climate policies. In particular, the socio-economic and technological characteristics of different development paths will strongly affect emissions, the rate and magnitude of climate change, climate change impacts, the capability to adapt, and the capacity to mitigate. Climate change mitigation has created awareness among policy makers on the need to address global environmental concerns and has forced them into action like never before. Mitigation of climate change through dominant opportunities such as spread of renewables, energy efficient and clean coal technologies, forest conservation and land reclamation can be clear 'win-win' strategies for promoting sustainable development. A critical input to promote a more rational global partnership and action is the generation of information on the relevant aspects of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. This would include regional projections of climate change, assessment of consequences that are as localized as possible, cost and benefits of climate mitigation and adaptation technologies and the institutional, financial and policy instruments needed to promote rational mitigation and adaptation strategies. It should also be ensured that the information so generated is accessible to policy makers, non-governmental organizations, industries, farmers and other stakeholders.

Introduction

9

1.5 OUTLINE OF THE BOOK

The amount of information available on the subject of climate change would probably fill many a library. At regular intervals, the IPCC produces an excellent assessment of the literature available on the subject and special and technical reports on several aspects of climate change. There are books that discuss the science of climate change, the vulnerability of nations to its impact and ways of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. But there is a paucity of books that examine the various aspects of climate change and their implications for developing countries. This book fulfils that need, by providing data and analyses of the many issues that impact the developing world. The topics discussed include: the importance of climate change to developing countries, why they should pay more attention to it and how they can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change while also gaining local and national co-benefits through their actions. In this book, we have attempted a synthesis of the following information: Historical, current and projected greenhouse gas emissions and climate change Impact of climate change on natural and socio-economic systems, and adaptation strategies Mitigation opportunities, costs and benefits Barriers to mitigation and adaptation strategies Policies and measures for mitigation and adaptation strategies Global mechanisms concerned with climate change Convention related issues, particularly development, equity and sustainable development and mitigation Policy and institutional options available to developing countries. This chapter serves as an introduction to the book and highlights the broad issues at stake from the perspective of developing countries. Chapter 2 considers the growth in concentration of different greenhouse gases, particularly sources of contribution of energy and land-use change and forestry sector, comparison of contribution of industrialized and developing countries and case studies of greenhouse gas inventory of three developing countries. Finally, the greenhouse gas inventory methodology is briefly discussed, to show that it is possible to improve the quality of inventory in the energy and landuse change and forestry sectors, in the developing countries. In Chapter 3, we explain the regional and country-specific emissions and examine the factors contributing to historical emissions trends, particularly the impact of GDP growth rate and energy intensity of GDP. Chapter 4 discusses the projections of climate change, vulnerability of different ecosystems, impacts of climate change, and adaptation issues and approaches for assessment. This is followed by a presentation of the impact of climate change, particularly at the regional level, on food production and security, forest ecosystems, fresh water resources, human health, sea level rise and infrastructure. Adaptation strategies for different sectors are discussed along with the barriers to implementation of adaptation strategies. Finally, implications of mitigation and adaptation for developing countries are highlighted. Chapter 5 considers the potential and costs of the mitigation opportunities available to developing countries in the energy, forestry and agriculture sectors. The

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Climate Change and Developing Countries

mitigation potential of different activities at the national and global levels and methods of assessing them are presented. Chapter 6 analyses the policies, programs and measures required for implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Generic as well as technologyspecific barriers to a few mitigation and adaptation activities in the energy, agriculture and forestry sectors are briefly discussed. This Chapter will help policy makers evaluate their policy and institutional options. In Chapter 7, we deal with the global mechanisms to promote mitigation and adaptation activities. The focus is on Global Environment Facility (GEF), and the CDM. This chapter discusses the role of developing countries in dealing with climate change, their relevance, the opportunities available to them, the pitfalls they should guard against and the institutions they need, to deal with the problems relating to the mechanisms. The current global negotiations, policy options and their implications for developing countries are also presented. Chapter 8 considers the development, equity and sustainable development aspects of UNFCCC, greenhouse gas emissions trends and mitigation attempts and their potential impacts for developing countries. Contentious issues such as differential contributions to global warming, responsibility for mitigation and adaptation and burden sharing, and potential conflicts between climate change mitigation and sustainable economic development in developing countries are discussed, as also the implications of the Kyoto Protocol for economic development. Chapter 9 summarizes the climate change issues addressed in the book from the perspective of developing countries. A few contentious issues in the climate negotiations, Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are presented. The need for and rationale for participation of developing countries in global efforts to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere are discussed. This Chapter also explores the opportunities available to developing countries for capacity building, technology transfer and capital flows due to the global efforts for mitigation of climate change under the provisions of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The challenges before the developing countries, to promote sustainable development in the face of changing climate are noted in order to alert planners, policy makers, researchers and negotiators in preparation for future discussions on climate change-related issues.

CHAPTER 2 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2.1 INTRODUCTION Increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere due to human activities is one of the contributory factors to global warming and climate change. The dominant greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide the major sources of emissions are fossil fuel combustion, land-use change and agricultural activities such as livestock rearing and rice production; and the major sectors responsible for the emissions are energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land-use change and forestry (LUCF) and waste. Knowledge of the sources of greenhouse gas emissions, sectoral emissions, contribution of different regions and countries, trends in greenhouse gas emissions, the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and economic development and trends in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere are critical for global negotiations on combating climate change. So, this chapter is devoted to a discussion of these topics. The focus is on developing countries and the discussion is supported by case studies of greenhouse gas emissions from three countries, namely Argentina, Indonesia and Zimbabwe. 2.2 GREENHOUSE GASES, AEROSOLS AND RADIATIVE FORCING The earth’s climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy from the sun, mainly in the form of visible light. About 30% of this energy is immediately scattered back into space, but most of the remaining 70% that is absorbed, passes through the atmosphere to warm the surface of the earth. The earth's temperature is determined both by this energy coming in from the sun in the form of visible radiation and energy constantly being emitted from the surface of the earth to outer space in the form of invisible, infrared radiation. Visible radiation passes through the clear atmosphere essentially unchanged. But, infrared radiation is partly absorbed by some gases in the atmosphere and a portion of it is re-emitted back to earth, leading to a warming of the earth's surface. This is called the ‘greenhouse effect’. Natural greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, of which water vapor and are dominant, keep the earth’s temperature warm. If they were absent, the earth would have been cooler by 33°C compared to the current global mean temperature. The global concern with respect to greenhouse effect, however, is due to the continued growth in human induced greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution. These gases include methane, nitrous oxide, Chlorofluro Carbon (CFC)-11, Hydrofluoro Carbon (HFC)-23 and Perfluro methane The nongreenhouse gases have strong absorption bands in the atmospheric window. Relatively small changes in the concentration of these gases produce significant changes in the net radiative flux, affecting the earth-troposphere climate system. The greenhouse gases emitted due to anthropogenic activities remain in the atmosphere

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Climate Change and Developing Countries

for long periods (Table 2.1). Thus, the greenhouse gases emitted currently and in the previous decades will affect radiative forcing for decades and centuries to come. Aerosols are microscopic air borne particles, resulting from human activities such as combustion of fossil fuels and biomass burning. Aerosols that are present in the troposphere scatter and reflect sunlight, which would otherwise reach the surface of the earth and heat it. Tropospheric aerosols tend to produce a negative radiative forcing leading to cooler climate. Their negative forcing is focused in particular regions and sub-continental areas, though it can also have continental and hemispheric scale effects. Sulfate aerosol emissions resulting from human activities such as fossil fuel use for power generation and transport has increased in the past 100 years. At present, over half the sulfur dioxide emitted into the atmosphere comes from anthropogenic sources. These aerosols are absorbed into the clouds or removed from the atmosphere by rainfall within a few days or a couple of weeks of emission at the most Thus, any changes in the radiative balance of the earth, including those due to increase in greenhouse gases or aerosols will tend to alter atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and the associated circulation and weather patterns. These will be accomplished by changes in the hydrological cycle, for example altered cloud distribution or changes in rainfall and evaporation regimes. Estimates of climate forcing by sulfate aerosols fall mainly in the range of –0.3 to compared to current forcing of at (Hansen and Sato, 2001). The climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols may be the largest source of uncertainty about future climate change. The detrimental effects of aerosols, including acid rain and health impacts will eventually limit the permissible atmospheric aerosol amount and thus expose latent greenhouse warming (Hansen et al., 2000). Data on past, present and future projections of variations in climate forcing agents, namely greenhouse gases and aerosols, are needed to understand the past changes in climate and, more importantly, to predict future climate changes. The growth in the emissions of greenhouse gases and the resulting growth in their concentrations in the atmosphere are discussed in this chapter. 2.3 GROWTH IN CONCENTRATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES Over the millennium, before the Industrial era, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases remained relatively constant. Since then the concentration of greenhouse gases has increased directly or indirectly because of human activities. Table 2.1 draws a comparison between the concentration of greenhouse gases during the pre-Industrial period and 1998. concentration: Examining the concentration in the pre-Industrial Revolution period will help understand the magnitude of its increase since then. Icecore analyses from the Antarctic show that the concentration was 200 ppmv since the end of the last glacial maximum. It rose gradually to about 250 ppmv 8000 years ago and increased further by 25 ppmv in the following 7000 years. During the past millennium, until the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century, concentration varied between 275 and 285 ppmv. Continuous direct measurements of atmospheric concentration, however, began only in 1958, at

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

13

the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. The concentration since then has risen from 316 ppmv in 1959 to 365 ppmv in 1998 (Keeling and Whorf, 1999). The concentration has increased from about 280 ppmv in pre-Industrial times to 365 ppmv in the recent past, at a rate of growth of 1.5 ppmv per year. The increase in concentration in the atmosphere is mainly due to emissions from the combustion of coal and petroleum fuels in power generation, industrial processes, transportation etc. Land-use change (deforestation) is another factor contributing to emissions. According to the latest estimates, about 270±30 Gt C were emitted due to fossil fuel burning and cement production between 1850 and 1998 (Marland et al, 1999). Of this, 176±10 Gt C accumulated in the atmosphere (Etheridge et al., 1996 and Keeling and Whorf, 1999). The cumulative ocean uptake is estimated to be 120±50 Gt C (Kheshgi et al., 1999 and Joos et al., 1999). Today’s concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and it is not likely to have been exceeded during the past million years. The rate of increase over the past decade is unprecedented at least during the past 20,000 years (IPCC, 2001).

Methane concentration: Abundance of methane is less than 0.5% of the concentration in the atmosphere. However, its rapid increase makes it one of the most important greenhouse gases, next only to The atmospheric lifetime of methane is 12 years and on a molecule-to-molecule basis, it is about 23 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than Methane concentration during the preIndustrial period was 700 ppbv (parts per billion volume). This had more than doubled, to 1745 ppbv, by 1998 (Table 2.1). But the observed annual increase has declined during recent years from 1983 to 1998. The increase is highly variable during the 1990s, due to uncertainty in estimates of anthropogenic sources of methane. Annually, about 550 Mt of methane is emitted into the atmosphere, of which anthropogenic causes presently account for more than half of methane emissions (Prather et al., 1995). According to the IPCC Second Assessment Report, anthropogenic methane emissions in the year 1990 were estimated at 375±75 Mt

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Climate Change and Developing Countries

(Houghton et al., 1996). The major contributors to methane emissions are livestock maintenance, manure management, rice cultivation, biomass burning and natural wetlands. Nitrous oxide Nitrous oxide could cause greater global warming than because on a molecule to molecule basis it is 296 times more potent than in absorbing infrared radiation. The concentration of nitrous oxide increased from about 270 ppbv in the pre-Industrial times to 314 ppbv in 1998. According to the IPCC Second Assessment Report, anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide are estimated to be in the range of 3.7 to 7.7 Mt N (Houghton et al., 1996). The anthropogenic sources are industrial processing of chemicals, fertilizer use, fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. Atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide continued to increase at a rate of 0.25% per year (during 1980 to 1998). However significant inter-annual variability in the upward trend of nitrous oxide concentration has been observed, due to factors such as variation in fertilizer use and volcanically induced air circulations. Contribution of greenhouse gases to global warming: The share of different greenhouse gases in global warming is given in Figure 2.1. and methane are the dominant greenhouse gases, contributing to 63% and 24% of global warming, respectively. Thus, global mitigation efforts, as we shall see in our subsequent discussions, are focussed on reducing emissions of these gases, which together with nitrous oxide (10%) contribute to 97% of the global warming potential of greenhouse gases.

2.4 CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS

Carbon dioxide is both the dominant and best-understood greenhouse gas. The radiative forcing due to is estimated to be about three-quarters of the total (IPCC, 2001a). along with water vapor, is the major cause of earth’s greenhouse effect. once emitted into the atmosphere, is not removed by

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

15

chemical decomposition. Instead, it is redistributed to other carbon reservoirs. The atmosphere's response to emissions has a distinctly dual nature: while at least half the emissions are effectively removed in about 100 years, the rest of it is essentially permanent as it remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years or more (O’ Neill et al., 1997). The following sections discuss current and projected emissions, sources of and contribution of different sectors and projections of concentrations. 2.4.1 Global Annual Budget The global mean annual emissions and uptake for the decades 1980-1989 and 1989-1998 are given in Table 2.2. The mean emissions were estimated to be 7.9 Gt C annually during the 1990s compared to 7.2 Gt C during the 1980s. Of this, from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the 1990s was 6.3±0.6 Gt C. Emissions from the LUCF sector were 1.6±0.8 Gt C. The standard deviation for the latter estimate is high, due to the uncertainty of the data regarding areas and changes in area under different land use categories, biomass stocks, biomass growth, extraction rates and methods of inventory. The mean annual storage in the atmosphere during the two decadal periods, 1980 to 1989 and 1989 to 1998, is about 3.3 Gt C.

Share of fossil fuels, industrial processes and deforestation: The emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production accounted for 76% of the total annual emissions during 1980 to 1989, and increased marginally, to 80%, during 1989 to 1998 (Table 2.2). The LUCF sector accounted for the remaining 24% and 20% of the emissions respectively, in those decades. Thus, fossil fuel combustion is the dominant source of followed by deforestation. 2.4.2 Projection of Emissions According to SRES Scenarios IPCC developed a new set of scenarios to represent the range of driving forces and emissions, as significant changes had occurred in the understanding of driving forces and methodologies since the IS92 series scenarios. Four different narrative storylines were developed to consider different demographic, social, economic, technological

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Climate Change and Developing Countries

and environmental developments (Box 2.1). Features of one marker scenario each are presented for each storyline in Table 2.3. The future projections of emissions for fossil fuel and LUCF sectors and concentration in the atmosphere are discussed in the subsequent sections, for the A1B scenario, which represents a balance of all sources under Al, A2, B1 and B2 marker scenarios. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives. However, greenhouse gas emissions are directly affected by non-climate change policies designed for other purposes such as air quality control and forest conservation for biodiversity. Box 2.1. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) - marker scenario storylines (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). By 2100 the world will have changed in ways that are hard to imagine - as hard as it would have been at the end of th e 19th century to imagine the changes of the 100 years since. Each storyline assumes a distinctly different direction for future developments, such that the four storylines differ in increasingly irreversible ways. Together, they describe divergent futures that encompass significant “future” characteristics such as population growth, economic development and technological change. For this reason, their plausibility or feasibility should not be considered solely on the basis of an extrapolation of current economic, technological and social trends. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 group of scenarios is distinguished by its technological emphasis on coal (A 1C), oil and gas (A1G), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance of all sources (A1B). Balance is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end-use technologies. Further, A1C and A1G scenario groups are combined into one fossil-intensive group, A1FI. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in high population growth. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same low population growth as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with moderate population growth, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels. After determining the basic features and driving forces for each of the four storylines, the SRES team began modeling and quantifying the storylines. This resulted in 40 scenarios, each of which constitutes an alternative interpretation and quantification of a storyline. All the interpretations and quantifications associated with a single storyline are called a scenario family.

Population is projected to increase under all the four marker scenarios, but is estimated to treble under A2, double under B2 and increase to around 7 billion under A1B and B1 scenarios, by 2100, compared to 5.3 billion in 1990. Inequity between industrialized and developing countries is projected to decline under all the scenarios, particularly, under A1B and B1 scenarios.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

17

Primary energy consumption is projected to increase under all the four marker scenarios, highest under A1B (6.3 times) and least under B1 (1.4 times), compared to 1990. Final energy intensity is projected to decline under all the four marker scenarios, ranging from one-tenth under B1 to around a quarter under A1B and B2 scenarios. Thus, under all the four marker scenarios, due to technological developments and transfer, and economic development, the inequity between industrialized and developing countries, as well as the final energy intensity is projected to decline drastically during the current century, particularly post-2020 (Table 2.3).

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels: The carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion are given in Figure 2.2 for the four SRES marker scenarios. The carbon emissions during 1990 was 6 Gt C. It is projected to double under A1B and B2 scenarios by 2100 and more than quadruple, to 28.9 Gt C/year, under A2 scenario, which is characterized by a growing population, and slower and inequitable regional economic development. The carbon emissions is projected to decline sharply under B1 scenario, to levels lower than the 1990 level, due to reduction in energy intensity, adoption of clean and efficient-technology, and a global approach leading to reduction in regional inequities.

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Climate Change and Developing Countries

Carbon emissions due to land-use change: The projected land-use changes for cropland, grassland, forests and other categories are given in Table 2.4. Increasing demand for food from a growing population and changing diets are the main factors influencing land-use changes, though several other socio-economic and institutional factors such as deforestation, growing settlements and infrastructure, expansion of cropland areas and reforestation also determine land-use change (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). Making projections of land-use change for emissions estimates is complex, given the number of factors that are likely to affect future cropping patterns and deforestation rates.

Under A1 scenario, the area under forest is projected to decline during 1990 to 2050 as well as in the long-term, during 1990 to 2100. Under B1 and B2 scenarios,

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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the area under forest is projected to increase, by 274 Mha in the short-term and by 1260 Mha in the long-term for the B1 scenario and by 57 Mha and 227 Mha for the same periods under the B2 scenario. Economic development, increasing incomes and agricultural productivity are likely to reduce deforestation rates. emissions from land-use change (Figure 2.3) are projected to decline under all the scenarios by 2050 with further declines by 2100, compared to the 1990 emissions level of 1.1 Gt C. The land use sector, particularly forests, are projected to become a net sink by 2050 under Bl and B2 scenarios, and thus contribute to mitigation.

In 1990, the LUCF sector accounted for 15% of the global emissions of 7.1 Gt C (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). But beyond 2050, for all the four scenarios, and by even 2020 for A1B, B1 and B2, the contribution of LUCF sector to global emissions will be marginal (