Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics: A Systemic Approach to Dealing with Models and Uncertainties (Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering) 3030640132, 9783030640132
The book outlines the processes of calculating and critically reviewing construction costs and times for clients and con
127 63 43MB
English Pages 728 [722] Year 2021
Preface
Table of Contents
Abbreviations, Acronyms and Notations
Authors
1 Introduction
1.1 Production System and Processes
1.1.1 Applying the Trapezoidal Model in Construction Management
1.1.2 Efficiency and Effectiveness
1.1.3 Accuracy, Distortion, and Spread
1.1.4 Complexity of Systems
1.1.5 Uncertainties in Systems
1.2 Objective
1.3 Structure
1.4 Target Audiences
1.5 Summary
1.6 References
2 Basics
2.1 Chance and Risk
2.1.1 Etymology
2.1.2 General Language
2.1.3 Usage in Business and Economics
2.1.4 Usage in Construction Economics
2.1.5 Usage of the Concepts of Chance and Risk in this Book
2.1.6 Selection of the Reference Base
2.2 Assumptions Regarding the Future
2.3 Terminology in Statistics and Probability Theory
2.3.1 Stochastics
2.3.2 Random Variable
2.3.3 Distribution
2.3.4 Histogram
2.3.5 Location Parameters
2.3.6 Variance
2.3.7 Standard Deviation
2.3.8 Quantile Values and Ranges
2.3.9 Central Limit Theorem
2.3.10 Correlation and Correlation Coefficients
2.3.11 Historical Data
2.4 Summary
2.5 References
3 Data, Information, Knowledge, and BIM
3.1 Types of Knowledge
3.1.1 Implicit and Explicit Knowledge
3.1.2 Subjective and Objective Knowledge
3.1.3 Individual, Collective, and Organizational Knowledge
3.1.4 Contextualized and Decontextualized Knowledge
3.2 General Considerations on Documentation and Knowledge Expansion
3.3 Flow of Information
3.4 Information and Data Quality
3.4.1 Methods of Acquiring Information
3.4.2 Information Asymmetry
3.5 Systematic Knowledge Management
3.6 Data and Information for BIM
3.6.1 Principles of BIM Models
3.6.2 Targets of BIM Models in the Project, Use, and Operation Processes
3.7 Summary
3.8 References
4 Management of Chances and Risks
4.1 Management of Chances and Risks in Accordance with ISO 31000
4.2 Situational Analysis with Respect to Chance and Risk Behavior
4.2.1 Chance and Risk Behavior in Construction Companies
4.2.2 Chance and Risk Behavior and Competitive Intensity
4.3 Chance and Risk Policy
4.4 Macro- and Micro-Analysis
4.4.1 Macro-Analysis – Organizational Level
4.4.2 Micro-Analysis – Project Level
4.5 Chance and Risk Management Process
4.5.1 Analysis and Synthesis of Chances and Risks
4.5.2 Optimization of Chances and Risks
4.5.3 Monitoring of Chances and Risks
4.5.4 Documentation of Chances and Risks
4.5.5 Reflection on Chances and Risks
4.6 Summary
4.7 References
5 Applying the Management of Chances and Risks to Project Phases
5.1 Phases of a Construction Project
5.2 Using Tools and Methods of Chance and Risk Management in Project Phases
5.3 Costs of Buildings/Structures – Cost Funnel – Contingencies
5.4 Summary
5.5 References
6 The Fundamentals of Monte Carlo Simulations
6.1 Origins and Evolution of the Method
6.2 Distinction between Method and Simulation
6.2.1 Monte Carlo Method
6.2.2 Simulation
6.2.3 Monte Carlo Simulation
6.2.4 Scenario vs. Iteration
6.2.5 Areas of Application
6.3 Generation of Random Numbers
6.3.1 Sampling Methods
6.3.2 Number of Iterations
6.4 Distribution Functions
6.4.1 Influence of the Shape of Distribution Functions
6.4.2 Influence of the Skewness of Distribution Functions
6.5 Correlations
6.5.1 Correlations in the Literature on Construction Management and Economics
6.5.2 Influence of Correlations
6.6 Comparison – Deterministic and Probabilistic Calculations
6.6.1 Critical Review of Deterministic Calculations
6.6.2 SWOT Analysis for Monte Carlo Simulations
6.7 Summary
6.8 References
7 Application of Monte Carlo Simulations
7.1 Selection of Distribution Functions
7.1.1 Theoretical Considerations Based on Known or Assumed Characteristics
7.1.2 Gathering Empirical Data
7.1.3 Combination of Data Collection Methods
7.2 Data Fitting
7.2.1 Labor Consumption Rates
7.2.2 Quantity Deviations
7.3 Identifying Correlations
7.3.1 Total Labor Consumption Rate of Reinforced Concrete Operations
7.3.2 Expert Survey Results
7.3.3 Effects of Correlations on the Total Labor Consumption Rate of Reinforced Concrete Operations
7.4 Interpretation of Simulation Results
7.4.1 Histograms
7.4.2 Tornado Diagrams
7.4.3 Scatter Plots
7.4.4 Spider Diagrams
7.5 Summary
7.6 References
8 Influence of Project Lead Time and Construction Time on Project Targets
8.1 System of Targets for Construction Projects
8.2 Project Lead Time and Project Targets
8.3 Productivity and Production System
8.3.1 Production System
8.3.2 Labor Consumption Rates
8.4 Influence of Construction Time on Planning Processes
8.5 Significance of Construction Time
8.5.1 Significance for Construction Management
8.5.2 Significance for Construction Economics
8.5.3 Significance for Quality
8.5.4 Significance for Construction Process Disruptions
8.5.5 Legal Significance
8.6 Specification of Construction Time
8.6.1 Significance of Construction Time for the Construction Contract
8.6.2 Definitions of Construction Time
8.6.3 Consequences for the Client
8.7 Credible Construction Time
8.8 Influence of Construction Time on Productivity
8.8.1 Construction Time and Losses of Productivity
8.8.2 Comparison with Pertinent Literature
8.9 Summary
8.10 References
9 Worked Examples – Client
9.1 Project Phase 1 (PPH 1)
9.1.1 Developer Costing
9.1.2 Life-Cycle Cost Considerations
9.2 Project Phase 2 (PPH 2)
9.2.1 Life-Cycle Cost Calculations
9.2.2 Soil Survey
9.2.3 Cost Estimate/Calculation
9.3 Project Phase 3 (PPH 3)
9.3.1 Cost Quotation
9.3.2 Determination of Construction Time
9.3.3 Bid Analysis – In-Depth Bid Assessment
9.3.4 Contract Award Decision
9.4 Project Phase 4 (PPH 4)
9.4.1 Trend Analysis
9.5 Project Phase 5 (PPH 5)
9.6 Portfolio Management
9.6.1 Basics
9.6.2 Task
9.6.3 Modeling
9.6.4 Calculation and Interpretation of Results
9.6.5 Benefit for the Client
9.7 Summary
9.8 References
10 Worked Examples – Contractor
10.1 Project Phase 1 (PPH 1)
10.2 Project Phase 2 (PPH 2)
10.3 Project Phase 3 (PPH 3)
10.3.1 Quantity Uncertainties/Combined Pricing
10.3.2 Macro-Analysis of Number of Workers
10.3.3 Calculation of Number of Required Pieces of Construction Equipment
10.3.4 Register of Chances and Risks
10.3.5 Determination of Construction Time
10.3.6 Rough Process Comparison
10.3.7 Rough Estimation of Stocking Quantities^29)
10.3.8 Costing (Zero-Base Approach)
10.3.9 Assessment of Costing Risk
10.3.10 Bid Pricing
10.4 Project Phase 4 (PPH 4)
10.4.1 Logistics/Number of Transport Cycles
10.4.2 Coordination of Equipment Chains
10.4.3 Compaction Performance in Earthworks
10.4.4 Method Selection
10.4.5 Construction Process Planning
10.4.6 Stocking of Construction Materials
10.4.7 Aggregation of Losses of Productivity
10.4.8 Determination of Stocking Quantities
10.4.9 Procurement Optimization
10.4.10 Trend Analyses
10.4.11 Weather Impact
10.4.12 Determination of Additional Costs
10.5 Project Phase 5 (PPH 5)
10.6 Project Portfolio Management across all Phases
10.6.1 Basics
10.6.2 Task
10.6.3 Modeling
10.6.4 Calculation and Interpretation of Results
10.6.5 Benefit for the Contractor
10.7 Summary
10.8 References
Figures
Tables
Index
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Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering
Christian Hofstadler Markus Kummer
Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics A Systemic Approach to Dealing with Models and Uncertainties
Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering Series Editors Sheng-Hong Chen, School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China Marco di Prisco, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy Ioannis Vayas, Institute of Steel Structures, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering (STCE) publishes the latest developments in Civil Engineering - quickly, informally and in top quality. The series scope includes monographs, professional books, graduate textbooks and edited volumes, as well as outstanding PhD theses. Its goal is to cover all the main branches of civil engineering, both theoretical and applied, including: • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Construction and Structural Mechanics Building Materials Concrete, Steel and Timber Structures Geotechnical Engineering Earthquake Engineering Coastal Engineering; Ocean and Offshore Engineering Hydraulics, Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering Environmental Engineering and Sustainability Structural Health and Monitoring Surveying and Geographical Information Systems Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Transportation and Traffic Risk Analysis Safety and Security
Indexed by Scopus To submit a proposal or request further information, please contact: Pierpaolo Riva at [email protected] (Europe and Americas) Wayne Hu at [email protected] (China)
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15088
Christian Hofstadler Markus Kummer •
Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics A Systemic Approach to Dealing with Models and Uncertainties
123
Christian Hofstadler Technische Universität Graz Graz, Austria
Markus Kummer Technische Universität Graz Graz, Austria
ISSN 2366-259X ISSN 2366-2603 (electronic) Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering ISBN 978-3-030-64013-2 ISBN 978-3-030-64014-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64014-9 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
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© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 C. Hofstadler and M. Kummer, Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics, Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64014-9_1
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