Calculated Risks: How to Know when Numbers Deceive You 97807443254236
At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for cit
506 50 13MB
English Pages 321 Year 2002
Table of contents :
Gigerenzer, G. Calculated risks. How to know when numbers deceive you (S&S,2002) ......Page 4
Copyright ......Page 5
Contents ......Page 9
Acknowledgments vii ......Page 7
PART I Dare to know ......Page 10
1 Uncertainty 3 ......Page 12
2 The Illusion of Certainty 9 ......Page 18
3 Innumeracy 23 ......Page 32
4 Insight 39 ......Page 48
PART II Understanding uncertainties in the real world ......Page 62
5 Breast Cancer Screening 55 ......Page 64
6 (Un)Informed Consent 87 ......Page 96
7 AIDS Counseling 115 ......Page 124
8 Wife Battering 141 ......Page 150
9 Experts on Trial 151 ......Page 160
10 DNA Fingerprinting 161 ......Page 170
11 Violent People 185 ......Page 194
PART III From innumeracy to insignt ......Page 208
13 Fun Problems 211 ......Page 210
14 Teaching Clear Thinking 229 ......Page 238
Glossary 247 ......Page 256
Notes 259 ......Page 268
References 281\t......Page 290
Index 297 ......Page 308
cover ......Page 1
Gigerenzer, G. Calculated risks. How to know when numbers deceive you (S&S,2002) ......Page 4
Copyright ......Page 5
Contents ......Page 9
Acknowledgments vii ......Page 7
PART I Dare to know ......Page 10
1 Uncertainty 3 ......Page 12
2 The Illusion of Certainty 9 ......Page 18
3 Innumeracy 23 ......Page 32
4 Insight 39 ......Page 48
PART II Understanding uncertainties in the real world ......Page 62
5 Breast Cancer Screening 55 ......Page 64
6 (Un)Informed Consent 87 ......Page 96
7 AIDS Counseling 115 ......Page 124
8 Wife Battering 141 ......Page 150
9 Experts on Trial 151 ......Page 160
10 DNA Fingerprinting 161 ......Page 170
11 Violent People 185 ......Page 194
PART III From innumeracy to insignt ......Page 208
13 Fun Problems 211 ......Page 210
14 Teaching Clear Thinking 229 ......Page 238
Glossary 247 ......Page 256
Notes 259 ......Page 268
References 281\t......Page 290
Index 297 ......Page 308
cover ......Page 1
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