British Emigration to Australia 9781487599409

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British Emigration Emigration to to Australia Australia British

Each year year nearly nearly 30,000 30,000 Britons Britons emigrate emigrate to to Australia Australia under under the the Each Scheme. In In return return for for near-free near-free transport transport they they are are Assisted Passage Passage Scheme. Assisted required only only to to stay stay aa minimum minimum two two years years in in Australia. Australia. Are Are these these required persons the the ne'er-do-wells ne'er-do-wells of of British British society, society, the the unskilled unskilled misfits misfits persons who have have not not been been able able to to succeed succeed in in Britain? Britain? Do Do they they base base their their who decisions to to emigrate emigrate on on reliable reliable information information and and study study economic economic decisions opportunities in in other other overseas overseas countries countries before before choosing choosing opportunities Australia? To To what what extent extent do do relatives relatives and and friends friends in in Australia Australia Australia? fact that that itit is is aa British British country country influence influence their their decisions? decisions? and the the fact and Why do do they they leave leave their their homeland homeland -- inequality inequality of of opportunity; opportunity; aa Why hostile class class structure; structure; the the climate? climate? What What do do they they know know about about the the hostile country many many of of them them will will never never leave leave and and what what do do they they hope hope country to achieve achieve by by going going there? there? to In 1959 1959 Dr Dr Appleyard Appleyard and and aa team team of of interviewers interviewers set set out out to to In find the the answers answers to to these these questions. questions. They They conducted conducted long long find interviews with with nine nine hundred hundred British British families families (and (and single single persons) persons) interviews just before before they they sailed sailed for for Australia. Australia. This This book book contains contains the the results results just of the the interviews interviews set set in in the the background background of of post-war post-war emigration emigration of to Australia, Australia, demographic demographic and and economic economic conditions conditions in in each each to country, government government policies policies which which have have been been formulated formulated to to meet meet country, and actual actual differences differences in wages, wages, social social services, services, these conditions, conditions, and these and the the ownership ownership of of houses houses and and consumer consumer durables durables between between and the United United Kingdom Kingdom and and Australia. Australia. the Dr Appleyardisisa aSenior SeniorFellow FellowininDemography Demography atat The The Australian Australian DRAPPLEYARD National University. He was educated at the University of National University. He was educated at the University of and Duke Duke University, University, North North Carolina, Carolina, U.S.A. U.S.A. Western Australia Australia and Western He is is the the author author of of articles articles on on demographic demographic and and economic economic He aspects of of migration migration and and is is presently presently writing writing aa book book based based on on aspects follow-up interviews interviews with with the the same same nine nine hundred hundred British British follow-up migrants after after they they had had been been in in Australia Australia for for eighteen eighteen months. months. migrants

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British Emigration to Australia

R. T. APPLEYARD Senior Fellow in Demography The Australian National University

Toronto: The University of Toronto Press Canberra: The Australian National University

First published 1964 Set in 10 point Times New Roman text face and printed on Burnie machine finished paper by the Printing Department of the Melbourne University Press, Carlton, Victoria, for The Australian National University, Canberra Registered in Australia for transmission by post as a book

Contents List of Tables

vii

List of Figures

xi

Preface

xiii

Acknowledgments

xvii

Part A

Emigration from the United Kingdom to Australia 1945-1958 1 The Demographic Background 3 2

United Kingdom and Australian Migration Policies

28

3 Some Socio-Economie Differentials

53

4 Emigration Mindedness

85

Part B

A Sample of Assisted Emigrants from the United Kingdom to Australia during 1959 5 Whence Come the Assisted British Migrants? 109 6 Motives for Emigration

146

7

179

Expectations and Knowledge of Australia

8 Conclusions

207

Appendixes 1 Sampling Method and Interview Schedule 2 Score Sheet for Part III of Interview Schedule: Notions of Australia

239

Selected Bibliography

243

Index

249

v

215

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List of Tables 1.1 Natural and Actual Increase in the Population of Great Britain, 1871 - 1941

7

1.2 Natural and Actual Increase in the Population of Australia, 1871-1950

9

1.3

Age Structure of the Populations of Great Britain and Australia, 1945 to 1958

13

1.4 Ever-Married Females as a Percentage of All Women, England and Wales, and Australia, 1947 and 1954

14

1.5 Estimates of Migration Between the United Kingdom, the Continent and the Republic of Ireland, 1946-1957

21

1.6

Proportion of Permanent Arrivals from United Kingdom in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa, 1948 - 1957

23

Ages and Sex of Migrants between United Kingdom and Non-European Countries (by long sea routes only - British Subjects only) 1946 - 1959

25

1.8 Migration between the United Kingdom and Overseas Countries 1946 to 1957 (by long sea routes only)

26

2.1

Employment Conditions, Great Britain and Australia

39

2.2

Occupational Groupings of British Assisted Arrivals in Australia; January 1949 to December 1957

40

3.1

Average Earnings: United Kingdom and Australia

57

3.2

Minimum Wage Rates: Sydney as a Percentage of London

58

3.3

Household Ownership of Selected Durables, United Kingdom and Australia, 1958 - 1960

82

5.1

Regional Distribution: Home Population (Great Britain) and Sampled Emigrants

115

1.7

vii

viii

List of Tables

5.2 Urban-Rural Distribution: Home Population (Great Britain) and Sampled Emigrants

117

5.3 Conurbation Distribution: Home Population (Great Britain) and Sampled Emigrants

118

5.4

Ages and Sex: Home Population of the United Kingdom, Total Assisted Emigrants (1947-1960) and Sampled Emigrants

5.5 Family Composition

120 122

5.6

Occupations: 1951 Census and Sampled Migrants (Great Britain); (20-44 years only)

125

5.7

Social Class: United Kingdom Population and Sampled Migrants (Males, 15 years & over)

126

5.8

Working Wives: British Migrant Sample

128

5.9

(i) House Tenure and Expected Capital Transfers of Married Sampled Migrants (ii) Expected Capital Transfers of Single Sampled Migrants

133 133

5.10 Ownership of Selected Consumer Durables: Market Research Surveys and British Migrant Families

134

5.11 Number of Rooms in Relation to Persons per Household: Great Britain (1951) and Sampled Migrants

136

5.12 Rental and Number of Rooms of which Sampled British Migrants had Exclusive Use (Married Couples only)

138

5.13 Religious Denominations of Sampled Migrants

139

5.14 Military Service of Sampled Emigrants

141

5.15 Overseas Military Service and Overseas Travel of Sampled Migrants

143

6.1

Type of Nomination and the Period Emigration was Considered before the Final Decision

152

6.2

Emigrants' Sources of Information about Australia

155

List of Tables 6.3 Nominated Respondents' Relationship to their Nominators and the Nominators' Length of Residence in Australia

ix

157

6.4

Inquiries made about Emigrating to Countries other than Australia

159

6.5

Reasons for Emigrating to Australia

165

7.1

Earnings in the United Kingdom and Expected Earnings in Australia (Married Males only)

181

7.2

Wives' Plans for Employment in Australia

183

7.3

Plans for Entrepreneurial Activity in Australia

184

7.4

Present and Expected Savings from Income (Married respondents only)

187

7.5

Ownership of Dwelling in United Kingdom and Intention to Purchase in Australia (Married couples only)

189

7.6

Size of House Expected and Expected Cost (Married couples only)

190

7.7

Expected Capital Transfer and Expected Period before Purchasing a Dwelling (Married couples only)

191

7.8

Respondents' Preferences for Localities in Australia

193

7.9

Scores obtained on a Quiz on Knowledge of Australia

196

7.10 Emigrants' Knowledge of Australian Geography

198

7.11 Emigrants' Knowledge of Australia's Exchange Rate, Basic Wage, Working Week, and Taxation

200

7.12 Emigrants' Knowledge of Australian Politics and Immigration Programme

202

7.13 Emigrants' Knowledge of Australia's Social Services

204

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List of Figures 1

Crude Birth and Death Rates, Australia and the United Kingdom, 1871-1959

5

2

Population of Australia and the United Kingdom, 1947 and 1958

10

3

Australian Population Structure, 1954

11

4 Age Specific Fertility, Australia and Great Britain, 1945-58

15

5

Estimates of Net Migration from the United Kingdom to the Rest of the World, 1946 - 59

20

6

Immigration and Excess Demand for Labour, Australia 1946/7 - 1958/9

44

7

Income Tax, United Kingdom and Australia, 1958/59

63

8 Percentage Ownership of Selected Durables, United Kingdom and Australia

81

9

Assisted Migration: First Inquiries and Applications, 1947 – 59

10 Occupational Index (Reserve of Applications for Commonwealth Nominations) 1953 - 59

xi

92

96

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Preface This book is an economist's answer to the question: What determines contemporary emigration from the United Kingdom to Australia? The answer, and the methods employed to reach it, are substantially different from the answers and methods of other economists who have studied the determinants of international migration. The main studies in this field relate to transatlantic migration during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, a period which was ideal for studying the relationship of economic activity and changes in the volume of emigration because it was relatively free of government controls both in the sending countries and in the United States. Harry Jerome, for example, was able to apply a derived index of business cycles to the period 1870 — 1923 and conclude that changes in the flow of emigration were dominated by economic conditions in the United States. Dorothy Swaine Thomas came to a similar conclusion about the 'pull' of the United States on Sweden; but she discovered that cyclical upswings in Sweden were a more powerful stimulant than had been generally recognized and that during prosperous years Swedish industry was able to compete successfully with the lure of America. The third major contribution was Brinley Thomas's study of the relation between minor secular fluctuations (as distinct from business cycles) and migration across the Atlantic. He showed that from the 1840s to World War I the long swings of economic development were inverse to one another and coincided with a one-way traffic of capital and labour. (A wave of investment and construction did not occur in the United States and the United Kingdom at the same time.) In one period the marginal efficiency of investment abroad governed the level of activity at home and hence the volume of emigration. In another, the marginal efficiency of domestic investment, as well as the supply of loanable funds, dominated the scene and restricted the volume of emigration. These relationships, showed Thomas, gradually weakened and finally ceased with the emergence of the United States as a dominant industrial power. The Atlantic economy entered a new era in which the level of economic activity in Europe was largely governed by what was happening in America. The growing conxiii

xiv

Preface

viction in the United States before 1914 that immigration should be curtailed resulted in the Quota Acts of 1921 and 1924 which restricted the intake from each country on the basis of their contribution to the United States population at the 1890 census. In the United Kingdom, about the same time, a Dominions Royal Commission had recommended, though not explicitly, that the long laissez faire tradition regarding migration should be replaced by a system of controlled economic activity and migration within countries of the British Empire. The Empire Settlement Act of 1922, under which selected emigrants were assisted to countries within the Empire, and a series of preferential trade and tariff agreements were a direct result of the Commissioners' recommendations for an economically self-sufficient Empire. There was to be no place for non-Empire countries, especially the United States which, as a result of its industrial status, had become a significant trader in Empire markets. The Quota Acts and the Empire Settlement Act brought to an end, at least officially, the century-long free movement of Britons across the Atlantic. The United States no longer needed a large number of immigrants and legislated to restrict the intake. The United Kingdom government saw the value of planned migration in developing an economic bloc; but the schemes of Empire resettlement were not successful. Two main reasons appear to have been responsible. First, the adverse demographic structure of the United Kingdom during the inter-war years meant that emigration was a less pressing necessity than it had been during the nineteenth century. Second, the depression of the 1930s severely handicapped the trade agreements which were an integral part of the resettlement schemes. Indeed, between 1931 and 1938 there was a net return of 135,000 persons from overseas Empire countries to the United Kingdom. Although the demographic condition of the United Kingdom had not improved very much by the end of World War II, the United Kingdom and Australian governments renewed their prewar agreement on assisted migration. It soon became clear, however, that the pattern of migration between the two countries would be very different from the pattern envisaged under the Empire Settlement Act of 1922. Australia had reached a stage in her economic development at which she required skilled technicians in preference to farm workers, and to secure these relatively 'scarce commodities' had to compete not only with other Commonwealth countries but with employers in the United Kingdom. To attract them, she offered near-free transport, employ-

Preface

xv

ment, and, in some cases, housing. The United Kingdom government, on the other hand, saw little point in assisting skilled workers to emigrate and, stage by stage, reduced her financial support of the agreement. The complicating influence of government sponsorship and controls over migration has always made it difficult for students to observe the relationship of immigration and economic activity in Australia. The indices used by Jerome and Brinley Thomas, while applicable to transatlantic free migration during the nineteenth century, are of little use to the student of planned migration between the United Kingdom and Australia since World War II. Indeed, one is inclined to agree with Brinley Thomas that the questions which used to be asked may not now be appropriate. In view of the important roles played by colonial and federal governments in Australia since the mid-nineteenth century in assisting emigrants from the United Kingdom, the questions asked of British migration across the Atlantic may never have been pertinent to British migration to Australia. These general problems, especially the influence of governments on the flow of migration, led demographers at The Australian National University to conclude that a timely research project would be one which examined the post-war and contemporary determinants and consequences of emigration from the United Kingdom to Australia. It seemed remarkable that although immigration from the United Kingdom to Australia had played a dominant role in the establishment and development of first the colonies and then the federation, no definitive history or economic study of immigration had been done on the subject. The outcome of discussions in 1958 was that the 'determinants' of British emigration could best be studied in two parts. First, by an analysis of the demographic and economic conditions in each country, of each government's migration policies in response to these conditions, and of selected socio-economic differentials which, it was felt, greatly influenced individual decisions to emigrate. Such a background study, it was believed, would go a long way towards explaining changes in 'emigration mindedness' in the United Kingdom since the end of the war. Second, it was felt that a sample survey of assisted emigrants just before their departure for Australia in 1959 would go a long way towards answering important questions about individual decisions to emigrate. Thus, an interview schedule was composed and asked of 861 emigrants and their wives. It sought information on their socio-economic background and status (their ages, family size, income, housing etc.),

xvi

Preface

their motives for emigrating, and their expectations and knowledge of Australia. Each country's demographic and socio-economic conditions and migration policies are discussed in Part A, Chapters 1 to 4; the results of the interviews with assisted emigrants are reported in Part B, Chapters 5 to 7, and a concluding chapter brings together the findings of each part. It must be emphasized that the present volume is only the first half of the whole research project: the 'determinants' of emigration from the United Kingdom to Australia. The 'consequences' are yet to be written although follow-up interviews have already been conducted in Australia with over 80 per cent of the same migrants. These interviews sought to determine changes in their socio-economic conditions as a result of resettlement, whether their expectations of Australia, as recorded in the present volume, materialized, and the nature of their adjustment to Australian society during the first eighteen months. It is hoped that the second volume will be published during 1965. A series of second follow-up interviews may also be conducted during the same year. Canberra, 1964

R.T.A.

Acknowledgments The academic debts which one accumulates during five years' research are enormous and it is possible only to acknowledge the assistance and advice of those whose contributions have been especially significant. My colleagues at The Australian National University, W. D. Borrie, C. A. Price, Norma McArthur, Lincoln Day, and J. Zubrzycki, have provided valuable guidance since the project was first mooted in 1957. Indeed, I was not appointed until 1958 when a great deal of the initial 'thinking' had already been done. Frank Jones (McMaster University), Alan Richardson, Ron Taft, D. V. Glass, Brinley Thomas, Gunther Beijer and his colleagues at The Hague, Jean Martin, and B. P. Hofstede have all been excellent critics. Unlike many academic studies this one has relied heavily upon the co-operation of government officials and I am especially indebted to officials at the Australian Department of Immigration in Canberra and London, the Australian Bureau of Census and Statistics sampling division, the British government's General Register Office, Board of Trade, Ministry of Labour and National Service, and the Oversea Migration Board. As shown in Chapter 5, the Central Office of Information's Social Survey Division undertook to interview the majority of the sampled emigrants. They did a magnificent job of a difficult assignment. Special acknowledgment is due to five assistants, T. B. Millar, Cecily Burton, Louise Nicholson, Moira Salter, and Géraldine Spencer, whose painstaking efforts brought together a mass of unrelated information on the sampled emigrants. An early draft of the manuscript was submitted as a thesis for the Ph.D. degree at Duke University and I am indebted to members of my examination committee, especially J. J. Spengler, for their support. Finally I wish to acknowledge the co-operation of the emigrants themselves. Answering detailed questions during a long evening interview on the eve of their departure must have been irksome but they did not show it. The interviewers, too, were required to travel long distances to conduct the interviews and then return home and write up their results. Their efforts are also greatly appreciated. Financial assistance has been received from the Commonwealth Department of Immigration and the Duke University Commonwealth Studies Center. xvii

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PART A Emigration from the United Kingdom to Australia 1945 - 1958

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1 The Demographic Background In ordinary circumstances a large and continuous flow of emigrants can only be expected from countries where the birthrate is high and where the population is tending to increase more rapidly1 than the absorptive capacity of the domestic economic system. Although individuals are unlikely to attribute their decisions to emigrate to population trends in the country they are leaving compared with trends in the country to which they are proceeding, in fact these trends figure in the factors which they usually nominate. The emigrant who states that he wants 'a higher standard of living' or 'better opportunities' may well be alluding to the relationship between population and per capita real income as outlined in the optimum theory of population. Based upon the principles of 'division of labour' and 'the law of diminishing returns', the most widely accepted interpretation of this theory is that per capita real income is maximized at the optimum population and will be reduced by any change.2 Expressed in terms of the marginal theory of production, 'the optimum point for a population with a given amount of capital and natural resources is reached under conditions of free competition when the marginal product of labour is equal to the average product per head'.3 While the assumptions underlying the theory — free competition and a given volume of natural resources, capital 1 Economic Advisory Council, Committee on Empire Migration Report, 1932. 2 See Harvey Leibenstein, A Theory of Economic-Demographic Development, pp. 172-3, where several interpretations of the theory are critically discussed. Leibenstein divides these into two categories: single criterion static theories and multiple criteria static theories. 3 Julius Isaac, Economics of Migration, p. 11. 3

4

British Emigration to Australia

equipment and 'technology' - prevent its application to 'real' situations, there is considerable merit in Isaac's use of the theory to explain migratory movements in terms of real income differentials between countries. He concludes that the most likely condition under which free emigration will occur is when one country is 'over-populated' (in the optimum sense) and another is 'underpopulated' and that these conditions have, in the past, been the most frequent determinants of free migration. Although migration between the United Kingdom4 and Australia during the twentieth century has been 'free', in Isaac's sense, the corollary that the United Kingdom was over-populated and Australia was under-populated is a judgment which can be verified only by an examination of the demographic and economic differentials between each country. Some aspects of these differentials since 1936 will be examined in this and the following two chapters. Rates of Population Growth — United Kingdom and Australia A country's rate of population growth is a function of its natural increase (derived from the difference between births and deaths) and net migration. While these indices may be examined separately, the secondary effects of emigration on natural increase are less difficult to assess than are the secondary effects of immigration on natural increase.5 When a country is affected by emigration and immigration, as most are, the secondary effects are extremely difficult to calculate. Some aspects of each country's rates of population growth will now be examined with a view to assessing whether there has been a demographic case for emigration from the United Kingdom to Australia since 1945. 1871 to 1939. Figure 1 reveals a striking similarity in the trend of the birth- and death-rates of the United Kingdom and Australia between 1871 and 1939. The rates for both countries declined steadily during the period although the birth-rates declined more steeply than the death-rates. These trends were not peculiar to the United Kingdom and Australia; they were a phenomenon of the demography of nearly all Western countries and appear to be a function of industrialization.6 4 In this volume the term United Kingdom will refer to England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, and the term Great Britain to England, Wales and Scotland. 5 'Secondary' effects are defined as the 'loss' of population through emigration of children yet to be born to emigrants, or the 'gain' from immigration when immigrants bear children. 6 See Recent Trends in Fertility in Industrialized Countries (United Nations, 1951), pp. 4-7; R. R. Kuczynski, "The International Decline of

'000

PERSONS

40 BIRTH RATE AUST.

ii

» U.K;

DEATH RATE AUST. ii » U.K.

30

20

10

18^71

1881

1891

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

Fig. 1 Crude Birth and Death Rates, Australia and the United Kingdom, 1871 — 1959 Sources: U.K., Annual Abstract of Statistics; Australia, Demography Bulletins

1961

6

British Emigration to Australia

Except for a short period at the turn of the century, the Australian birth-rate has been about three to five persons per thousand of the total population higher than the United Kingdom rate, and the Australian death-rate about five to seven persons per thousand lower than the United Kingdom rate. The effect of these differential rates on the population growth of each country is evident in column 3 of Tables 1.1 and 1.2. After 1911 inter-censal rates of population growth fell sharply despite declining death-rates (Fig. 1) and reductions in mortality which, in Great Britain, were greatest in the under-45-years age groups.7 The main reason for the decline in the rate of population growth in both countries after the end of the nineteenth century was the decline in the birth-rate, a result of married couples reducing the size of their families. In Great Britain the decline began with married couples who had been born about 1850 when the average size of completed families was 5-5 to six children and reached an estimated average of 2-2 children for couples who had been married between 1925-29.8 In Australia the average total size of families per married woman fell from 5-5 children in 1881 to 2-2 in 1939.9 The higher rate of population growth in Australia during the period 1871-1930 was the result of both a higher rate of natural increase and gains through immigration, although the former was partly the result of secondary gains from immigration. While Australia's natural increase averaged 19 per 1000, Great Britain averaged only 11 per 1000 (cols. 3, Tables 1.1 and 1.2) and while Australia gained immigrants during every decade, Great Britain lost emigrants (cols. 4, Tables 1.1 and 1.2). Nonetheless, both countries experienced downward trends in rates of total growth of population. These reached the lowest recorded levels during the 1930s and although the causal relationship is by no means certain, there is a connection between the trend in birth-rates and the economic depression which both countries suffered during that decade. 'Net reproduction rates'10 fell below 1-00 (the theoretical point Fertility', in L. Hogben (ed.) Political Arithmetic (London, 1938), pp. 283327; F. Bertillon, 'Mouvements de la Population dans les divers Etats de l'Europe et notamment en France', Annales de Démographie Internationale, Vol. 1, 1887, pp. 3-206; and A. M. Carr-Saunders, World Population: Past Growth and Present Trends (Oxford, 1936), chapters VII and VIII. 7 Royal Commission on Population Report, 1949, Table VIII, p. 18. 8 Ibid., p. 219. 9W. D. Borrie, Population Trends and Policies, A Study in Australian and World Demography, p. 87. iOThe 'net reproduction rate' is a measure of the extent to which, under given conditions of mortality and fertility, the women in a society will

TABLE 1.1 Natural and Actual Increase in the Population of Great Britain, 1871 — 1941

Census period

(1) Population (Census estimate at base year) '000

1871-81 1881-91 1891-1901 1901-11 1911-21 1921 -31 1931-41

26,072 29,710 33,029 37,000 40,831 42,769 44,795

Natural increase (2) Excess of (3) Per thousand births over deaths (2)/(D '000

3,895 4,137 4,094 4,587 2,796 2,591 1,160

14-9 13-9 12-4 12-4 6-8 6-1 2-6

(4) Net gain or loss by migration '000

(5) Actual increase (2) + (4) '000

(6) Actual increase per thousand

-257 -817 -122 -756 -858 -565 +650

3,638 3,319 3,971 3,831 1,938 2,026 1,810

14-0

11-2 12-0 10-4 4-7 4-7 4-0

Sources: Registrar General's Statistical Review of England and Wales for the Year 1958, Part II, Tables, Population, Table Al. United Kingdom Government, Royal Commission on Population Report, Cmd. 7695, London, 1949, Table VII, p.15.

8

British Emigration to Australia

of replacement): in England and Wales to 0-738 in 1933, and in Australia to 0-941 in 1934.11 These figures are particularly relevant to the present study because by 1959 survivors born between 1931 and 1935 had reached the age quinquennia 20 — 24 and 25 — 29 from which were drawn a large proportion of emigrants from the United Kingdom to Australia. 1940 to 1959. The similarity of trends in the birth- and deathrates of Australia and the United Kingdom noted above was not maintained after 1938. The recovery of the Australian birth-rate began in 1935 (16-55 per thousand) and reached 24-07 per thousand in 1947 after which it flattened out at about twenty-two per thousand (Fig. 1). The United Kingdom's birth-rate, on the other hand, continued to decline to a remarkably low 14-4 in 1941 and then rose sharply to 'peak' at the same year as the Australian rate but, unlike the Australian rate, it declined again and flattened out after 1951 at fifteen per thousand, that is, seven per thousand lower than the Australian rate. The death-rates for both countries have remained steady — the Australian rate at eight to nine and the United Kingdom rate at eleven to twelve per thousand of the total population. The most appropriate method of depicting the effect of changes in the rate of growth of a population is to construct a population pyramid. Where the number of births and deaths in a population have been constant, with the former exceeding the latter, the numbers in each age-cohort bar of the pyramid will be smaller than those in the bar below so that if all age-bars are arranged one above the other from the youngest to the oldest the result will be a pyramid. Any irregularities in the rates of population growth, such as a reduction in the birth-rate or an intake of immigrants, will be revealed by the length of the age-cohort bars. In Fig. 2, which portrays the population pyramids of the United reproduce themselves. A rate of 1-00 equals replacement; one of -90 a decline of 10 per cent in a generation and one of 1-10 an increase of 10 per cent in a generation. However, unless its limitations are clearly recognized, the net reproduction rate can be misleading for it is constructed 'from the fertility rates of women in different age groups' and takes no account of the proportion of married women in each group. It also takes 'no account of any special influences affecting the rate at which married couples were building up their families in the particular period'. Royal Commission on Population Report, p. 62. 11 See D. V. Glass, Population Policies and Movements in Europe, Table 3, p. 13; and Report of the National Health and Medical Research Council, Eighteenth Session, Canberra, 22 and 24 November 1944, p. 19.

TABLE 1.2 Natural and Actual Increase in the Population of Australia, 1871 - 1950

Census period

1871-80 1881-90 1891-1900 1901-10 1911-20 1921-30 1931-40 1941-50

(1) Population (Census estimate at base year) '000

1,649 2,250 3,177 3,773 4,455 5,436 6,553 8,044

Natural increase (3) Per (2) Excess of births over thousand deaths (2)/(l) '000

392 537 589 619 779 776 536 904

23-8 23-9 18-5 16-4 17-5 14-3 8-2 11-2

(4) Net gain or loss by migration '000

(5) Actual increase (2) + (4) '000

(6) Actual increase per thousand

+ 192 +383 + 24 + 40 +208 +313 + 32 +361

584 920 613 659 987 1,089 568 1,265

35-4 40-9 19-3 17-5 22-2 20-0 8-7 15-7

Source: Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics, Demography Bulletin No. 76, 1958, Tables 7 and 12.

AUSTRALIA

UNITED KINGDOM

AGE GROUP MALES

500 400

300

200 100

85 + 80-84 "75-79" 70-74 "65-69" "60-64" "55-59" "50-54" "45-49" "40-44" "35-39" "30-34 "25-29" "20-24 15-19 "10-14 "5-9" " 0-4"

AGE GROUP

1947 1958

FEMALES

MALES

85+

FEMALES

~80-84~ "75-79" "70-74" [65-69[ "60-64 "55-59" [50-54 \5-49] "40-44 "35-39" [30-34 [25-29^ "20-24 "15-19 "10-14" "5"9

"0-4" 100

200

300

400 500 2000 1500

P O P U L A T I O N

IN

1000

500

500

1000 1500

2000

THOUSANDS

Fig. 2 Population of Australia and the United Kingdom, 1947 and 1958 Note: Australian figures for 1947 include the age groups 80 — 84, 55+ in the grouping 75 years and over' Sources: U.K. Annual Abstract of Statistics; United Nations, Demographic Year Book, 1959; Australia, Demography Bulletins

The Demographic Background

11

Kingdom and Australia for 1947 and 1958, the low birth-rates of the 1930s are depicted by indents in the 10 — 14 years cohorts in the 1947 pyramids and in the 20 — 24 years cohorts in the 1954 pyramids. Each pyramid also portrays the wartime recovery in birth-rates and the fact, already noted, that the United Kingdom rate declined again after 1947 whereas the Australian birthrate flattened out (see Fig. 1). By 1958 the Australian population had recovered its pyramid shape (apart from the indents caused by the low birth-rates during the 1930s) whereas the United Kingdom population had squared below the 40 — 44 years cohort. Although the recovery of the Australian population to pyramid shape by 1954 was largely the result of high post-war birth-rates, net immigration also made a significant contribution particularly in extending the 0 — 9 and 25 — 44 years cohorts (Fig. 3). In addition, there were substantial secondary gains of children born to AGE GROUP MALES

FEMALES 80-84 75-79 70-74." 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 4-5-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 >-9' 0-4

500

400

300

200

100

POPULATION

100

200

300

400

500

IN T H O U S A N D S

MIGRANTS WHO ARRIVED AFTER JUNE 1947

Fig. 3 Australian Population Structure, 1954 Sources: Australia, Demography Bulletins; J. Zubrzycki, The Australian National University, private communication

12 British Emigration to Australia immigrants after they reached Australia which Zubrzycki estimates at 64,000 between 1947 and 1954.12 The effect of migration on the structure of the United Kingdom's population cannot be assessed in the same way because that country conducts its censuses during the second year of each decade and the results of the 1961 census are not yet available. It will be seen, however, that on the basis of annual migration statistics the United Kingdom appears to have sustained a loss through net emigration during the period 1947 — 54. Incomplete statistics on the ages of migrants (Table 1.7) suggest that the losses were particularly severe in the 25 — 39 years cohorts. Determinants of Population Growth, 1940 — 55 Crude birth-rates reflect only the number of births per thousand of the population in a given year. In order to assess the cause of differential birth-rates it is necessary to examine other indices, notably the proportion of married females in the reproductive cohorts and their age-specific fertility. For practical demographic purposes, the population of a country may be divided into three age groups: children aged 0 — 14 years, reproductive persons aged 15-44 years and non-reproductive persons aged 45 years and over. There is, of course, some overlapping and the nomenclature may not be entirely realistic. For example, some females under 15 and over 45 years bear children. Yet for demographic analysis, the 15 — 44 group contains the majority of reproductive persons in a population. A distinctive feature of Table 1.3 is that the proportion of females aged 15 — 44 years in the Australian population for each selected post-war year is higher than the proportion in the British population and that the difference between the countries has increased.13 The table also shows that there has been an increasing excess of males aged 15 — 44 years in Australia since 1945. By 1958 the masculinity ratio was 106 (that is, 106 males for 100 females). In Great Britain, on the other hand, there was actually an excess of females aged 15 — 44 years in 1945 and 1955; in 1950 and 1958 males barely exceeded females. This means that,, other things being equal, Australian women have had a higher probability of marrying than British women in the same age group. 12 Jerzy Zubrzycki, Immigrants in Australia, A Demographic Survey based upon the 1954 Census, pp. 27-8. 13 The 1945 estimate of the home population of England and Wales includes members of the armed forces and merchant seamen whereas the estimate for Scotland is for civilians only.

TABLE 1.3 Age Structure of the Populations of Great Britain and Australia, 1945 to 1958 (in thousands) Ages

1950 1955 Persons Persons Males Females Males Females %* %*

1958 Persons Males Females %*

4,908 11,003 8,792

19-9 44-5 35-6

5,572 10,687 7,601

5,347 10,661 9,326

21-1 42-1 36-8

5,781 10,185 8,058

5,522 10,270 9,940

21-5 39-9 38-6

5,958 10,101 8,351

5,682 10,090 10,285

21-8 38-7 39-5

24,703

100-0

23,860

25,334

100-0

24,024

25,732

100-0

24,410

26,057

100-0

1945 Males Females

Great Britain 0-14 5,088 15-44 10,417 45 & over 7,101 Total 22,606

Persons %*

Australia 14 & under 15-44 45 & over

912 1,741 1,043

878 1,701 1,101

23-8 46-3 29-9

1,108 1,874 1,145

1,063 1,789 1,206

26-2 44-1 29-7

1,362 2,029 1,266

1,303 1,905 1,335

28-7 42-0 29-3

1,506 2,124 1,349

1,437 1,997 1,433

29-5 41-1 29-4

Total

3,696

3,680

100-0

4,127

4,058

100-0

4,657

4,543

100-0

4,979

4,867

100-0

Sources: Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics, Demography Bulletins; Registrar General's Statistical Reviews of England and Wales; Annual Reports of the Registrar-General for Scotland. * Percent, of age group to total.

14

British Emigration to Australia

Another important determinant of the birth-rate is the proportion of females in the 15 — 44 years age group who ultimately marry and their average age at marriage. Clearly, the longer a married woman is exposed to the risk of bearing children the greater is the probability that she will have more children. Table 1.4 shows that the proportions of 'ever married' women in the 20 — 44 years cohorts in Australia are considerably higher than the British proportions and that both proportions increased considerably between 1947 and 1954. By 1954, 59 per cent of Australian females were married before they left the 20 — 24 years cohort and 85 per cent were married before they left the 25 — 29 years cohort. The respective figures for England and Wales were 51 per cent and 79 per cent. TABLE 1.4 Ever-Married Females as a Percentage of All Women, England and Wales, and Australia, 1947 and 1954 Age quinquennia

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

1947

1954

England & Wales

Australia

England & Wales

3-3 44-5 71-4 80-2 80-7 78-5 76-3

5-6 48-6 79-0 86-3 87-4 87-1 87-4

4-6 51-5 79-1 85-0 84-7 83-3 79-4

Australia 6-9 59-0 85-0 90-4 91-4 90-8 89-6

Sources: W. D. Borrie and Ruth M. Rodgers, The Next Fifteen Years', p. 35. Registrar General's Statistical Review of England and Wales.

The final and probably the most important determinant of the birth-rate, in the sense that it largely reflects the marriage rates, is the age specific fertility of females (Fig. 4). Once again the Australian rates are much higher than the British rates in every cohort in the 15 — 44 years age group. The difference is particularly striking for the numerically important 20 — 24 and 25 — 29 years cohorts: by 1958 the Australian rate per thousand females for the latter had reached the remarkably high figure of 216-3. The point already made —that after 1947 the Australian birthrate maintained its level whereas the British rate fell —is also brought out by the curves in Fig. 4. These indices indicate that Australian females in the reproductive cohorts have been more fertile than British females, and,

220

15-19 YEARS

25-29 YEARS

20-24- Y E A R S

200

210200-

150-

50-

150-

20101945

120110-

1101001950

1958

1945

1950

1958

1945

1958

40-44 YEARS

35-39 Y E A R S

30-34 YEARS

1950

140-

80-

100.

901945

Fig. 4

302010

50 40 1950

Age Specific

1958

1945

AUSTRALIA

1950

SCOTLAND

1958

1945

ENGLAND & WALES

1950

1958

Fertility, Australia and Great Britain, 1945 — 58, per 1,000 Females, all Births

16

British Emigration to Australia

when related to the Australian population structure (a higher proportion of females aged 15 — 44 years, and higher marriage-rates) explains why the Australian birth-rates have been considerably higher than the British rates since 1945. The large intake of immigrants in the reproductive cohorts and their subsequent contribution to the birth-rate enabled the Australian population to recover its pyramid shape, except for the indent made during the economic depression of the 1930s. The British pyramid, on the other hand, squared off below the 40 — 44 years cohort, reflecting both the low birth-rates and the loss of population through emigration. Although the discussion so far has proceeded on a comparative basis, it must be emphasized that during the 1950s England and Wales experienced one of the lowest 'excess of births over deaths' ratios amongst Western countries.14 This raises again the important question: Is net emigration demographically feasible from a country which is just replacing itself and has 38-6 per cent of its population over 45 years of age? Before an answer is attempted the actual post-war pattern of emigration from the United Kingdom will be examined. British Migration since 1945 The Report of the Economics Committee of the Royal Commission on Population, which was written in 1945 and published in 1950, doubted the demographic capacity of Great Britain to maintain its pre-1930 role of provider of emigrants to the Commonwealth overseas. Tor present-day Britain . . . with a birth-rate well below replacement level, the maintenance of a large flow of emigration can hardly be regarded as either practicable or desirable.'15 The General Report of the Commission which was published in 1949, when the replacement rate had improved from 20 per cent below replacement level to 10 per cent below replacement level,16 reaffirmed this view and expressed particular concern about the effect of large-scale emigration on the numbers in the fertile age groups from which most emigrants are traditionally drawn. The report showed that even with no net migration (and at the then replacement level) the population of Great Britain aged 15 to 40 years would fall by about 1,400,000 over the following fifteen years but, largely as the legacy of the low 14 Population Index, Office of Population Research, Princeton, July 1960, pp. 287-302. 15 Papers of the Royal Commission on Population, Vol. Ill, Report of the Economics Committee, p. 20. 16 Julius Isaac, British Post-War Migration, p. 36.

The Demographic Background

17

birth-rates of the 1930s, the decline would be specially rapid over the following five years.17 This meant that if the decline in the numbers in the 'young age groups' was to be arrested, there would need to be an annual inward balance of 140,000 'young adults' during the following ten years (1949 — 59). The Commissioners were realistic enough to reckon on some emigration during this period (30,000 per annum) which meant that annual immigration would have to be 170,000 in order to maintain the numbers of young adults. The only source of immigrants they envisaged was the European continent and the Republic of Ireland but they were not optimistic about either or both sources providing 170,000 per annum for more than a few years. In fact, the Commissioners quickly dispelled the notion that they considered immigration on this scale a feasible proposition; their estimate was largely an exercise directed towards the demographic incapacity of Great Britain to supply emigrants in large numbers. It is thus significant that the report then examined the probable 'migration needs' of the four main Commonwealth countries. Taking the 'generally accepted' proposition that the populations of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa would continue to grow at 2 per cent per annum, the report estimated that their aggregate requirements, if pre-war rates of natural increase were maintained, would be approximately 226,000 per annum.18 The report clearly foresaw limits to the capacity of Great Britain to supply this number of migrants, but recognized the political importance of 'maintaining and strengthening the British element in the Commonwealth'.19 The compromise that the report recommended was that if Britain's fertility patterns were maintained at replacement level she might be able to supply not more than one-third of the 226,000 immigrants, that is, about 75,000 per annum. A combined Commonwealth policy was outlined under which the Commonwealth's needs would be met as far as possible by people of British stock and, 'Great Britain, with its much larger population, would take on as much as possible of the problem of assimilating people of other than British stock'.20 What, in fact, has been the pattern of intra-Commonwealth migration during the thirteen years since the Royal Commission published its report? Despite a decline in the United Kingdom birth-rate since 1947 (Fig. 1), replacement rates (for England and Wales) have risen from an estimated 0-978 for the generation born between 1938 and 1943 to 1 -000 for 1943 - 8 and 1 -014 for 17 Royal Commission on Population Report, p. 122. 18 Ibid., p. 129. I* ibid., p. 130. 20 ibid.

18

British Emigration to Australia 21

1948 —53. Thus the Royal Commission's basic condition for providing 75,000 emigrants per annum to the four Commonwealth countries has been met. It is much more difficult, however, to assess whether the Commission's recommendations on the volume and direction of migration have been met. The main problem is that the British government's official statistics of migration relate only to migration by 'long sea routes'.22 This means that migration between the United Kingdom and continental Europe, between the United Kingdom and non-continental countries via continental ports on ships, and all migration between the United Kingdom and other countries by air transport, is excluded from the British estimates. One way of assessing the size of these gaps in the Board of Trade's estimates would be to compare their statistics with statistics of countries which receive migrants from and send migrants to the United Kingdom. Provided the working definition of 'migrant' is the same and that the other countries' statistics cover all modes of travel and all routes, the differences should be the result of movement by air transport and migration by ships via continental ports. However, a careful examination of the feasibility of this procedure has revealed that the United Kingdom's working definition of 'migrant' does not coincide with that used by other countries, at least other Commonwealth countries. The former uses the period 'longer than twelve months' to distinguish a 'visitor' from a 'migrant' whereas all Commonwealth countries apply the period 'twelve months or longer'. While this may not seem to be a serious difference, in fact an important proportion of the migration between the United Kingdom and Australia (and probably other countries) comprises persons who intend remaining abroad for twelve months only. By applying the 'twelve months or longer' criterion the Australian government would count such persons as 'long term and permanent arrivals or departures' whereas the United Kingdom government, by applying the 'longer than twelve months' criterion, would count them as 'visitors'.23 21 B. Benjamin, 'Recent Fertility Trends in England and Wales', International Population Conference, Wien, 1959, p. 251. 22 These are prepared and published by the Board of Trade and appear in occasional issues of the Board of Trade Journal. An emigrant is defined as a person who, on departure, states that he intends to remain in his 'country of future permanent residence' for a period of 'longer than twelve months' and an immigant is defined as a person who, on arrival in Britain, states that he intends to stay for a period of longer than twelve months. See also Isaac, British Post-War Migration, pp. 21-2, 31-2. 2 3 See R. T. Appleyard, 'The Return Movement of United Kingdom Migrants from Australia', Population Studies, XV,iii, March 1962, pp. 214-25.

The Demographic Background

19

One further limitation on substituting the United Kingdom's for other countries' statistics is that in order to assess total migration between the United Kingdom and the rest of the world it would be necessary to analyse the statistics of as many countries as receive migrants from and send migrants to the United Kingdom. The difficulties are too obvious to require elaboration. But an attempt has been made by the United Kingdom Oversea Migration Board in their Fourth and Fifth Reports to estimate the differences between the United Kingdom estimates and those of five Commonwealth countries (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and Rhodesia and Nyasaland) for the years 1956, 1957 and 1958.24 Although no account was taken of the definitional problems outlined above, the comparison showed that whereas only slight differences exist between the United Kingdom and the Australian, New Zealand, South African and Rhodesian statistics of migration from the United Kingdom to these countries, the Canadian estimate was 57 per cent higher (184,156 compared with 116,818). The Oversea Migration Board attributes much of the higher Canadian estimate to emigration by air transport (not covered by the United Kingdom statistics) particularly during the 'Suez crisis' of 1957 when special aircraft were chartered to cope with the increased number of emigrants.25 The limitations of the United Kingdom statistics led the Oversea Migration Board, in 1952, to ask the Registrars General of England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, to compile annual estimates of gain or loss of population through migration to all overseas countries and by all modes of transport. These estimates appear to be more comprehensive than those provided by the Board of Trade, but the Oversea Migration Board warns that they should be treated with great caution because they represent only the 'difference between two large gross movements each with a substantial margin of error'.26 Nonetheless, the estimates of the Registrars General are a useful check on the Board of Trade's statistics. Both have been depicted in Fig. 5 which shows that although the trends are similar, the estimates of the Registrars General are, for each year, lower than the Board's estimates. This suggests that the differences are probably because the Board does not include all emigrants. 24 Commonwealth Relations Office, Fourth and Fifth Report of the Oversea Migration Board, December 1958 and March 1960. 25 See Chapter IV, p. 102. ^Fourth Report of the Oversea Migration Board, p. 15. It should be noted that since 1961 the United Kingdom government has taken steps to include persons travelling by aircraft in their estimates of migration.

British Emigration to Australia

20

(THOUSANDS) 100

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

10 20

BOARD OF TRADE'S ESTIMATE "(LONG SEA ROUTES ONLY)

30 40 sn

Fig. 5

REGISTRAR GENERAL'S ESTIMATE

1946

7

8 9 5 0 1

2

3

4

5

6 7

8 9

Estimates of Net Migration from the United Kingdom to the Rest of the World, 1946 - 59

Migration between the United Kingdom and the Continent Officials with whom these problems were discussed in 1959 felt that the main area not covered by the Board of Trade statistics was net immigration from continental countries and the Republic of Ireland. Statistics on alien (and Irish) immigration are collated

21

The Demographic Background

by yet another British government department — the Home Office. Table 1.5, which has been derived from their records, indicates that between 1952 and 1957 the United Kingdom received 299,000 (net) immigrants from the continent and the Republic of Ireland. Since the difference between Board of Trade and the Registrars General estimates of total net migration for the same period is 213,000 (Fig. 5), immigration from these areas could well be the major cause of discrepancy between the sources. TABLE 1.5 Estimates of Migration between the United Kingdom, the Continent and the Republic of Ireland, 1946—1957, '000 Net Immigration from Continental countries*

Year

Net Immigration from the Republic of Ireland

1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957

5 18 22 16 12 17 30 28 33 44 42 51

21-5 60-6 57-9 19-6 14.2 1-7 —5-9 6-0 10-2 16-3 29-0 15-4

Total

318

246-5

*Comprises mainly 'Baits and Finns', Germans, Italians, Poles, Austrians, French, Greeks and Norwegians. Source: International Labour Office, International Migration, 1945-1957, Geneva, 1959. Tables 45, 46, and 47, pp. 140-2.

The Home Office records also show that there was a net immigration of 564,000 persons from continental countries and the Republic of Ireland between 1946 and 1957, excluding the immigration of 95,000 (estimated) Polish service personnel and their dependants who settled in the United Kingdom after May 1946, and 25,000 German, Italian, and Ukrainian prisoners of war who elected to stay in Britain after their release.27 These latter movements took place during the large-scale readjustment of European 27 International Labour Office, International Migration, 1945-1957, pp. 13940.

22

British Emigration to Australia

populations between 1946 and 1948. Since then the majority of immigrants into the United Kingdom from the continent have been sponsored under 'group recruitment schemes' or have gained admission by 'individual permits'. Such persons are required to renew their permits every twelve months and after five years they may become eligible for naturalization. In summary then, between 1948 and 1957 there appears to have been a net immigration of approximately 459,000 persons from the Republic of Ireland (295,000) and the continent (164,000), or, 46,000 per annum. Migration between the United Kingdom and non-European Countries What has been the pattern of migration between the United Kingdom and non-European countries during the same period? Table 1.8, which has been derived from Board of Trades statistics of migration by 'long sea routes only', indicates that 1,543,000 emigrants have been replaced by 761,000 immigrants giving a net emigration of 782,000 or 78,000 per annum. A feature of Table 1.8 is that only three countries, British West Indies, India, and Pakistan have been 'net immigration' countries and a great deal of the movement from the latter two was due to the return of British settlers after the Partition and the granting of independence to those countries. However, these three countries have contributed only 163,000 of the 761,000 immigrants into the United Kingdom since 1948. By far the largest proportion has come from the four traditional Commonwealth countries (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa) together with the United States, even though these countries received 1,208,000 persons from the United Kingdom during the same period. Net Emigration from the United Kingdom The shortcomings of the Board of Trade statistics, particularly the exclusion of migrants on vessels via the continent and all migration by air transport, prevent a precise estimate being made of net migration between the United Kingdom and all countries, European and non-European, since 1948. The available data suggest, however, that the United Kingdom provided non-European countries with 78,000 emigrants (net) per annum between 1948 and 1957 and received from the continent and the Republic of Ireland 46,000 immigrants (net), giving her an annual average net loss through emigration of 32,000 persons. The Royal Commission on Population recommended in 1949 that in view of its demographic condition the United Kingdom

23

The Demographic Background

should attempt to provide Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa with only 75,000 emigrants per annum. In fact, the annual average appears to have been about 94,000 although an annual average immigration into the United Kingdom of 24,600 persons from these four countries has reduced net emigration to 69,000 per annum. It thus appears that the Commission's recommendation has been almost achieved. What of the Commission's proposal that the United Kingdom^ with its larger population, should take as much as possible of the problem of assimilating people of other than British stock so that the British element in the Commonwealth would be maintained and strengthened? Although the United Kingdom has received a steady intake of workers from the continent (Table 1.5), the four Commonwealth countries have not drawn the majority of their immigrants from the United Kingdom. Table 1.6 which compares the number of 'permanent arrivals from country of last permanent residence — United Kingdom'28 with the numbers of permanent TABLE 1.6 Proportion of Permanent Arrivals from United Kingdom in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa, 1948 - 1957

Canada Australia* South Africat New Zealand $

Permanent arrivals from country of last permanent residence United Kingdom

Total permanent arrivals

Permanent arrivals from United Kingdom,

431,993 413,836 71,551 108,612

1,533,494 1,220,613 162,345 199,154

28-2 33-9 44-1 54-5

* Includes migration from the Republic of Ireland from 1950-7. t Excludes year 1950. $ From financial years 1947/8 to 1956/7. Sources: Canada: Figures supplied by the Department of Citizenship and Immigration, Ottawa. Australia: Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics, Demography Bulletins. South Africa: Bureau of Census and Statistics, Pretoria, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics^. New Zealand: Official Yearbooks and figures supplied by Government Statistician, Wellington. 28

Each of the four countries defines a 'permanent arrival from country of last residence United Kingdom' as a person who had resided in that country for twelve months or longer and planned to spend twelve months or longer in their country.

24

British Emigration to Australia

arrivals from all countries (by all modes of transport) indicates that Canada has received only 28-2 per cent of its permanent arrivals from the United Kingdom, Australia 33-9 per cent, New Zealand 54-5 per cent, and South Africa 44-1 per cent. These figures relate to immigration from the United Kingdom only and exclude immigrants of British ethnic origin from other parts of the world (for example, Australians emigrating to Canada) although there has, in fact, been comparatively little migration of this kind. By the Royal Commission's own assessment — that if the four Commonwealth countries maintained an average rate of population growth of 2 per cent they would require approximately 226,000 (net) immigrants each year — it was inevitable that these countries would have to obtain most of their immigrants from other sources. In fact, in another part of their report the Commissioners noted: It seems to us necessary to accept the fact that, assuming Great Britain's economic position does not deteriorate, the flow of emigrants from Great Britain, even if fertility in Great Britain were maintained at replacement level or a little over, is unlikely to be more than about a third of the number of immigrants which the other Commonwealth countries would need if they wanted to maintain even an annual rate of growth of two per cent.29 Unfortunately, it is not possible to determine whether the characteristics of the immigrants from the continent and the Republic of Ireland have matched those of emigrants to the Commonwealth simply because complete statistics are not available. An attempt has been made in Table 1.7 to relate the ages and sex of migrants to and from oversea countries by long sea routes. This shows that the United Kingdom experienced a net loss of approximately 120,000 more females than males and that 40-1 per cent of these were in the reproductive age cohorts 20 — 24, 25 — 29 and 30 — 34 years. The table also shows that 91-2 per cent of the net male emigrants, and 85-1 per cent of the net female emigrants, were under 45 years of age. Similar difficulties prevent an estimate being made of the occupational characteristics of net migrants. It may be noted, however, that the Oversea Migration Board is of the opinion that although skilled emigrants to the 'traditional Commonwealth' countries have been partly replaced by skilled and professional immigrants from those countries, the net inward movement from the West Indies, 29

Royal Commission on Population Report, p. 130.

25

The Demographic Background

TABLE 1.7 Ages and Sex of Migrants between United Kingdom and Non-European Countries (by long sea routes only — British Subjects only) 1946 - 1959 Age at migration

Total emigrants

(a) Males Under 20 years* 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55 & over Unstated Total (b) Females Under 20 years* 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55 & over Unstated Total

Total immigrants

Net

276,549 95,352 127,009 102,030 134,526 65,411 50,442 6,150 857,469

126,921 47,842 56,299 44,409 60,731 41,382 36,148 6,043 419,775

149,628 47,510 70,710 57,621 73,795 24,029 14,294 107 437,694

283,042 143,596 160,981 127,177 149,288 85,195 88,318 22,048 1,059,645

127,579 57,221 66,490 56,997 76,793 48,363 56,005 6,816 496,264

155,463 86,375 94,491 70,180 72,495 36,832 32,313 15,232 563,381

Per cent distribution of 'Net'

34-2 10-8 16-1 13-2 16-9 5-5 3-3 100-0 27-6 15-3 16-8 12-5 12-9 6-5 5-7 2-7 100-0

* The age quinquennia 15-19 years, 10-14 years and 'under 14 years' were not available from official statistics. Sources: Board of Trade Journals and Supplementary Papers.

India, Pakistan, and the Irish Republic comprises largely unskilled workers.30 Summary The Economic Advisory Council of 1932 declared that a continuous flow of emigrants can only be expected where the birthrate is high and where the population is tending to increase more rapidly than the absorptive capacity of the domestic economic system. Birth-rates in the United Kingdom declined steadily from 30 per thousand at the end of the nineteenth century to 14 per 30

Third Report of the Oversea Migration Board, p. 10; Fifth Report, pp. 17-18; Sixth Report, p. 16.

TABLE 1.8 Migration between the United Kingdom and Overseas Countries 1946 to 1957* (by long sea routes only) Country

Emigration to

1946-7 Immigration from

Canada British West Indies British West Africa British East Africa Northern and Southern Rhodesia Union of South Africat India and Pakistan § Malaya Australia New Zealand Other Commonwealth countries^ Total Commonwealth countries United States Other Foreign countries All Foreign countries Overall Total

75-8

17-0

58-8

— —

— —

— 38-3 21-3 — 22-7 11-4

40-5 209-9 73-6 14-3 87-9 298-1

Emigration to

1948-57 Immigration from

Net Emigration

— —

369-1 18-1 31-6 25-6

78-0 56-2 17-8 19-9

291-1 —38-1 12-8 5-7

— 13-4 46-9 — 9-8 4-1

— 24-9 —25-6 — 12-9 7-3

40-1 94-6 42-5 58-1 421-3 109-1

15-4 45-3 107-1 53-4 91-4 31-7

24-7 49-3 —64-6 4-7 329-9 77-4

16-5 108-1 10-5 11-2 21-7 129-9

24-0 101-8 63-1 3-1 66-2 234-7

70-2 1280-3 214-6 49-0 **263-6 1543-8

79-4 598-1 101-5 61-3 **164-9 760-9

—9-2 682-2 113-1 —12-3 98-7 782-9

Net Emigration

Notes: * British nationals and aliens, solely by sea. t The figures for 1946, 1947 and 1948 also cover migration to and from Rhodesia. §And Ceylon for 1946-48. f For 1946 to 1948 these figures cover the British West Indies, British West and East Africa and Malaya. ** These figures do not correspond exactly in totals. Source: International Labour Office, International Migration, 1945-1957, pp, 170-1,

The Demographic Background

27

thousand in 1941. The low rates during the 1930s greatly reduced the number of persons aged 20 to 30 years in the post-war years when such persons traditionally comprise a major proportion of free migration flows. The low inter-war birth-rates also affected the population structure of post-war United Kingdom. By 1958 nearly 40 per cent of the population were aged 45 years and over. This is one reason why birth-rates of the United Kingdom during the 1950s have been amongst the lowest of Western countries. Another reason is that females in the reproductive cohorts have been relatively infertile. Despite demographic conditions unfavourable to emigration, the United Kingdom has provided Australia, Canada, and New Zealand with a steady flow of emigrants. The foregoing analysis indicates that this flow has been maintained partly because nearly half of the emigrants have been replaced by immigrants from the continent, the Republic of Ireland and the Commonwealth countries themselves, including the West Indies, India, and Pakistan. There has been no pure demographic case for continuous emigration to Australia, Canada, and New Zealand; indeed, the British government has refrained from opposing the flow mainly on the grounds that it helps maintain and strengthen the British element in these countries. In the following chapter some economic consequences of the United Kingdom's demographic condition are discussed in relation to changes in demand for labour and changes in emigration policy.

2

United Kingdom and Australian Migration Policies During the formative years of the Australian colonies immigrants were the main source of population. Although their exact contribution cannot be calculated from the available statistics,1 censuses taken in New South Wales show that three-quarters of the 1820 population and two-thirds of the 1846 population had been born outside Australia.2 As the colonies grew natural increase became increasingly important (despite a masculinity ratio which did not favour fertility) and by 1861 had replaced immigration as the major contributor to population growth. Because of close political and economic ties which have always existed between the two countries the majority of Australia's immigrants have come from the British Isles. Between 1788 and 1850 the intake from this source was fairly evenly divided between free immigrants and convicts.3 Even the relatively large intake of non-Britishers during the gold rushes of the 1850s and 1860s did little to affect the predominantly British character of the Australian population: censuses taken in the colonies in 1891 revealed that 83 per cent of the 984,366 overseas-born had been born in England, Wales, Scotland, and Ireland. This percentage 1

See W. D. Borrie, 'Immigration to the Australian Colonies 1861-1901'. Migration statistics were collated by Colonial Registrars whose criteria for registration were diverse and who had the habit of including in their statistics persons who passed through their ports en route to another port in another Australian colony. 2 T. A. Coghlan, General Report on the Eleventh Census of New South Wales, Sydney, 1894, p. 177. 3 W. D. Borrie, op. cit., attached 'Notes', p. 1.

28

United Kingdom and Australian Migration Policies

29

was fairly well maintained until the post-1945 inflow of immigrants from continental Europe. Nonetheless, the Australian colonies (and after 1901 the Commonwealth of Australia) received only a small share of the emigrants who left the British Isles during the 'century of migration' which followed the end of the Napoleonic wars.4 F. K. Crowley attributes this to the United Kingdom government's refusal to interfere with the direction and flow of emigration — a policy entirely consistent with the laissez faire doctrine which had dominated so much economic and social thinking in the nineteenth century.5 Had successive governments given financial encouragement to emigration, Australia, unable to compete on equal terms with the United States and Canada, might have received a larger share of the emigrants who left the British Isles. In fact, Crowley shows, it was largely the initiative of the Australian colonial and federal governments which was responsible for the numbers who did emigrate to Australia: these assisted 45 per cent of the 1,341,000 immigrants who reached Australia from the British Isles between 1860 and 1919. Although the United Kingdom government assisted only twenty-eight persons during the same period,6 it was not entirely uninterested, and assumed responsibility for advising those of its citizens who, of their free will, decided to emigrate. In 1840 it set up a Colonial Land and Emigration Commission which successfully 'collected and despatched' 64,068 emigrants to Australia; and in 1846 it established the Emigrants Information Office which published handbooks and gave advice about economic and social conditions in overseas countries.7 The Inter-war Years, 1919 to 1938 On 12 April 1912 the United Kingdom government appointed the Dominions Royal Commission to investigate the natural resources 4

See N. H. Carrier and J. R. Jeffery, External Migration, A Study of the Available Statistics, 1815-1950. After a copious analysis of the available statistics these writers estimate that 6-76 million persons left the United Kingdom for overseas countries between 1815 and 1869. The absence of statistics on immigration prevents an estimate being made of net migration. Between 1879 (when immigration statistics were kept) and 1914 there was a net outward flow of about ten million persons, 805,000 of whom emigrated (net) to Australia. 5 The British Contribution to the Australian Population: 1860-1919', University Studies in History and Economics, University of Western Australia, II, ii, July 1954, p. 58. « Ibid., p. 59. 7 See G. F. Plant, Oversea Settlement. Migration from the United Kingdom to the Dominions, pp. 24-60.

30

British Emigration to Australia

and trade of the Dominions and suggest ways and means of encouraging their economic development. In its final report, published in 1917,8 the Commission emphasized the common economic and political interests of the motherland and the Dominions, and in particular the reciprocity of trading interests between manufacturing industry in the United Kingdom and rural industry in the Dominions.9 Although their arithmetic has been questioned, the Commissioners claimed that the Dominions were selling to the motherland 3 4>6 6 >8 know more reply 24 8 9 9 3 1 — — 54

7 5 5 5 2 2 — — 26

35 7 8 5 3 8 4 — 70

8 3 4 6 — 4 2 — 27

42 9 10 14 6 19 19 3 122

96 19 23 18 11 20 6 7 200

2 1 —1 — — — 3 7

Total 248 62 72 65 28 57 33 14 579

188

British Emigration to Australia

are unfamiliar with the housing market and usually prefer to delay their purchases until they understand the implications of a mortgage agreement; this period of waiting also enables them to increase their equity. Third, home-ownership by working-class families in the United Kingdom is uncommon and it takes time for many of them to reconcile themselves to the new status.12 Very few assisted migrants from the United Kingdom are not provided with some form of temporary accommodation when they first reach Australia. Personal nominees are housed by their nominators and Commonwealth nominees are provided with accommodation in government hostels for a maximum period of two years during which they are expected to find their own private accommodation. The expectations of the sampled families for housing were sought first in regard to their initial accommodation (question ISA) and second in regard to permanent housing (question 15C). Including all Commonwealth nominees, 58 per cent of families expected their first accommodation in Australia to be either a private or Commonwealth hostel.13 Indeed, this statistic reveals one of the greatest costs of emigrating — leaving an established, furnished house for full-board accommodation which they had not seen, and knowing, perhaps, that comparable dwellings would be both expensive and hard to find in Australia. Answers to question 15A(v) 'How long do you intend to stay in this initial accommodation?' revealed that only one Commonwealth nominated family expected to be in a Commonwealth hostel longer than one year. Similarly, 91 per cent of Personal nominees hoped to be out of their nominator-provided accommodation within one year which suggests that nominators fulfil only the short-term housing needs of migrant families. Although a question (15A(iv)) was asked on the rent that Personal nominees expected to pay, only sixty-five nominees gave specific replies. Many of the others had not made rental agreements with their nominators and others, especially kinfolk, planned to share the cost of full board for both families. Of the sixty-five only fifteen expected to pay more than