Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics: A Systemic Approach to Dealing with Models and Uncertainties (Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering) 3030640132, 9783030640132
The book outlines the processes of calculating and critically reviewing construction costs and times for clients and con
126 63 43MB
English Pages 728 [722] Year 2021
Preface
Table of Contents
Abbreviations, Acronyms and Notations
Authors
1 Introduction
1.1 Production System and Processes
1.1.1 Applying the Trapezoidal Model in Construction Management
1.1.2 Efficiency and Effectiveness
1.1.3 Accuracy, Distortion, and Spread
1.1.4 Complexity of Systems
1.1.5 Uncertainties in Systems
1.2 Objective
1.3 Structure
1.4 Target Audiences
1.5 Summary
1.6 References
2 Basics
2.1 Chance and Risk
2.1.1 Etymology
2.1.2 General Language
2.1.3 Usage in Business and Economics
2.1.4 Usage in Construction Economics
2.1.5 Usage of the Concepts of Chance and Risk in this Book
2.1.6 Selection of the Reference Base
2.2 Assumptions Regarding the Future
2.3 Terminology in Statistics and Probability Theory
2.3.1 Stochastics
2.3.2 Random Variable
2.3.3 Distribution
2.3.4 Histogram
2.3.5 Location Parameters
2.3.6 Variance
2.3.7 Standard Deviation
2.3.8 Quantile Values and Ranges
2.3.9 Central Limit Theorem
2.3.10 Correlation and Correlation Coefficients
2.3.11 Historical Data
2.4 Summary
2.5 References
3 Data, Information, Knowledge, and BIM
3.1 Types of Knowledge
3.1.1 Implicit and Explicit Knowledge
3.1.2 Subjective and Objective Knowledge
3.1.3 Individual, Collective, and Organizational Knowledge
3.1.4 Contextualized and Decontextualized Knowledge
3.2 General Considerations on Documentation and Knowledge Expansion
3.3 Flow of Information
3.4 Information and Data Quality
3.4.1 Methods of Acquiring Information
3.4.2 Information Asymmetry
3.5 Systematic Knowledge Management
3.6 Data and Information for BIM
3.6.1 Principles of BIM Models
3.6.2 Targets of BIM Models in the Project, Use, and Operation Processes
3.7 Summary
3.8 References
4 Management of Chances and Risks
4.1 Management of Chances and Risks in Accordance with ISO 31000
4.2 Situational Analysis with Respect to Chance and Risk Behavior
4.2.1 Chance and Risk Behavior in Construction Companies
4.2.2 Chance and Risk Behavior and Competitive Intensity
4.3 Chance and Risk Policy
4.4 Macro- and Micro-Analysis
4.4.1 Macro-Analysis – Organizational Level
4.4.2 Micro-Analysis – Project Level
4.5 Chance and Risk Management Process
4.5.1 Analysis and Synthesis of Chances and Risks
4.5.2 Optimization of Chances and Risks
4.5.3 Monitoring of Chances and Risks
4.5.4 Documentation of Chances and Risks
4.5.5 Reflection on Chances and Risks
4.6 Summary
4.7 References
5 Applying the Management of Chances and Risks to Project Phases
5.1 Phases of a Construction Project
5.2 Using Tools and Methods of Chance and Risk Management in Project Phases
5.3 Costs of Buildings/Structures – Cost Funnel – Contingencies
5.4 Summary
5.5 References
6 The Fundamentals of Monte Carlo Simulations
6.1 Origins and Evolution of the Method
6.2 Distinction between Method and Simulation
6.2.1 Monte Carlo Method
6.2.2 Simulation
6.2.3 Monte Carlo Simulation
6.2.4 Scenario vs. Iteration
6.2.5 Areas of Application
6.3 Generation of Random Numbers
6.3.1 Sampling Methods
6.3.2 Number of Iterations
6.4 Distribution Functions
6.4.1 Influence of the Shape of Distribution Functions
6.4.2 Influence of the Skewness of Distribution Functions
6.5 Correlations
6.5.1 Correlations in the Literature on Construction Management and Economics
6.5.2 Influence of Correlations
6.6 Comparison – Deterministic and Probabilistic Calculations
6.6.1 Critical Review of Deterministic Calculations
6.6.2 SWOT Analysis for Monte Carlo Simulations
6.7 Summary
6.8 References
7 Application of Monte Carlo Simulations
7.1 Selection of Distribution Functions
7.1.1 Theoretical Considerations Based on Known or Assumed Characteristics
7.1.2 Gathering Empirical Data
7.1.3 Combination of Data Collection Methods
7.2 Data Fitting
7.2.1 Labor Consumption Rates
7.2.2 Quantity Deviations
7.3 Identifying Correlations
7.3.1 Total Labor Consumption Rate of Reinforced Concrete Operations
7.3.2 Expert Survey Results
7.3.3 Effects of Correlations on the Total Labor Consumption Rate of Reinforced Concrete Operations
7.4 Interpretation of Simulation Results
7.4.1 Histograms
7.4.2 Tornado Diagrams
7.4.3 Scatter Plots
7.4.4 Spider Diagrams
7.5 Summary
7.6 References
8 Influence of Project Lead Time and Construction Time on Project Targets
8.1 System of Targets for Construction Projects
8.2 Project Lead Time and Project Targets
8.3 Productivity and Production System
8.3.1 Production System
8.3.2 Labor Consumption Rates
8.4 Influence of Construction Time on Planning Processes
8.5 Significance of Construction Time
8.5.1 Significance for Construction Management
8.5.2 Significance for Construction Economics
8.5.3 Significance for Quality
8.5.4 Significance for Construction Process Disruptions
8.5.5 Legal Significance
8.6 Specification of Construction Time
8.6.1 Significance of Construction Time for the Construction Contract
8.6.2 Definitions of Construction Time
8.6.3 Consequences for the Client
8.7 Credible Construction Time
8.8 Influence of Construction Time on Productivity
8.8.1 Construction Time and Losses of Productivity
8.8.2 Comparison with Pertinent Literature
8.9 Summary
8.10 References
9 Worked Examples – Client
9.1 Project Phase 1 (PPH 1)
9.1.1 Developer Costing
9.1.2 Life-Cycle Cost Considerations
9.2 Project Phase 2 (PPH 2)
9.2.1 Life-Cycle Cost Calculations
9.2.2 Soil Survey
9.2.3 Cost Estimate/Calculation
9.3 Project Phase 3 (PPH 3)
9.3.1 Cost Quotation
9.3.2 Determination of Construction Time
9.3.3 Bid Analysis – In-Depth Bid Assessment
9.3.4 Contract Award Decision
9.4 Project Phase 4 (PPH 4)
9.4.1 Trend Analysis
9.5 Project Phase 5 (PPH 5)
9.6 Portfolio Management
9.6.1 Basics
9.6.2 Task
9.6.3 Modeling
9.6.4 Calculation and Interpretation of Results
9.6.5 Benefit for the Client
9.7 Summary
9.8 References
10 Worked Examples – Contractor
10.1 Project Phase 1 (PPH 1)
10.2 Project Phase 2 (PPH 2)
10.3 Project Phase 3 (PPH 3)
10.3.1 Quantity Uncertainties/Combined Pricing
10.3.2 Macro-Analysis of Number of Workers
10.3.3 Calculation of Number of Required Pieces of Construction Equipment
10.3.4 Register of Chances and Risks
10.3.5 Determination of Construction Time
10.3.6 Rough Process Comparison
10.3.7 Rough Estimation of Stocking Quantities^29)
10.3.8 Costing (Zero-Base Approach)
10.3.9 Assessment of Costing Risk
10.3.10 Bid Pricing
10.4 Project Phase 4 (PPH 4)
10.4.1 Logistics/Number of Transport Cycles
10.4.2 Coordination of Equipment Chains
10.4.3 Compaction Performance in Earthworks
10.4.4 Method Selection
10.4.5 Construction Process Planning
10.4.6 Stocking of Construction Materials
10.4.7 Aggregation of Losses of Productivity
10.4.8 Determination of Stocking Quantities
10.4.9 Procurement Optimization
10.4.10 Trend Analyses
10.4.11 Weather Impact
10.4.12 Determination of Additional Costs
10.5 Project Phase 5 (PPH 5)
10.6 Project Portfolio Management across all Phases
10.6.1 Basics
10.6.2 Task
10.6.3 Modeling
10.6.4 Calculation and Interpretation of Results
10.6.5 Benefit for the Contractor
10.7 Summary
10.8 References
Figures
Tables
Index
Recommend Papers
- Author / Uploaded
- Christian Hofstadler
- Markus Kummer
File loading please wait...
Citation preview
Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering
Christian Hofstadler Markus Kummer
Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics A Systemic Approach to Dealing with Models and Uncertainties
Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering Series Editors Sheng-Hong Chen, School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China Marco di Prisco, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy Ioannis Vayas, Institute of Steel Structures, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering (STCE) publishes the latest developments in Civil Engineering - quickly, informally and in top quality. The series scope includes monographs, professional books, graduate textbooks and edited volumes, as well as outstanding PhD theses. Its goal is to cover all the main branches of civil engineering, both theoretical and applied, including: • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Construction and Structural Mechanics Building Materials Concrete, Steel and Timber Structures Geotechnical Engineering Earthquake Engineering Coastal Engineering; Ocean and Offshore Engineering Hydraulics, Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering Environmental Engineering and Sustainability Structural Health and Monitoring Surveying and Geographical Information Systems Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Transportation and Traffic Risk Analysis Safety and Security
Indexed by Scopus To submit a proposal or request further information, please contact: Pierpaolo Riva at [email protected] (Europe and Americas) Wayne Hu at [email protected] (China)
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15088
Christian Hofstadler Markus Kummer •
Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics A Systemic Approach to Dealing with Models and Uncertainties
123
Christian Hofstadler Technische Universität Graz Graz, Austria
Markus Kummer Technische Universität Graz Graz, Austria
ISSN 2366-259X ISSN 2366-2603 (electronic) Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering ISBN 978-3-030-64013-2 ISBN 978-3-030-64014-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64014-9 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
3UHIDFH
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ex ante 8OWLPDWHO\ ILQDO FRVW DQG WLPH SDUDPHWHUV DUH GHWHUPLQHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI VXFK FRQVLGHUDWLRQVDQGFDOFXODWLRQVEx post DQGRUinter actio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
9,
3UHIDFH
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
$:$$9
$YDLODEOHZRUNDUHD>Pð$.@
$%*%
$OOJHPHLQHV%UJHUOLFKHV*HVHW]EXFK >$XVWULDQ@&LYLO&RGH
$6&(
$PHULFDQ6RFLHW\RI&LYLO(QJLQHHUV
% %*/
%DXJHUlWHOLVWH>/LVWRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ(TXLSPHQW@
%*+
%XQGHVJHULFKWVKRI >*HUPDQ@)HGHUDO&RXUWRI-XVWLFH
%,0
%XLOGLQJ,QIRUPDWLRQ0RGHOLQJ
%.,
%DXNRVWHQLQIRUPDWLRQV]HQWUXP'HXWVFKHU$UFKLWHNWHQNDPPHUQ *PE+ &RQVWUXFWLRQ&RVW,QIRUPDWLRQ&HQWHURIWKH*HUPDQ &KDPEHUVRI$UFKLWHFWV
E6,
EXLOGLQJ60$57,QWHUQDWLRQDO
%9HUJ*
%XQGHVYHUJDEHJHVHW] >$XVWULDQ@)HGHUDO3URFXUHPHQW$FW
%R4
%LOORITXDQWLWLHV
;,;
;;
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
& &
'HJUHHFHOVLXV
F$
&ULWLFDODSSUR[LPDWLRQ>G@
FP
&HQWLPHWHU
&
&UDQH V
&975
6WDQGDUGYROXPHRIFRQFUHWHGHOLYHUHGWRWKHVLWHSHUWUDQVSRUW F\FOH>Pñ@
&&
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV>¼@
&&5('
&UDQHFDSDFLW\UHGXFWLRQ>@
&%50
&KDQJH%DVHG5LVN0DQDJHPHQW
&,%
7KH,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RXQFLOIRU5HVHDUFKDQG,QQRYDWLRQLQ %XLOGLQJDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ
&,56
&ULWLFDO,QFLGHQW5HSRUWLQJ6\VWHP
&/
&OLHQW
&RUU
&RUUHODWLRQ
&RY
&RYDULDQFH
&36
&\EHUSK\VLFDOV\VWHP
&7
&RQWUDFWRU
&7
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
&503
&KDQFHDQGULVNPDQDJHPHQWSURFHVV
&(4
(TXLSPHQWFRVWV>¼Pñ@
&0$
0DWHULDOFRVWV>¼Pñ@
&5&2
&RVWRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV>¼@
&9
5HLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWHYROXPH>Pñ@
' G
:RUNLQJGD\ V
GHW
'HWHUPLQLVWLF
G[
'LIIHUHQWLDO
')2
'XUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNRSHUDWLRQV>G@
'),
'XUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNRSHUDWLRQV LQVWDOODWLRQRQO\ >G@
')6
'XUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNRSHUDWLRQV VWULSSLQJRQO\ >G@
'&2
'XUDWLRQRIFRQFUHWLQJRSHUDWLRQV>G@
'52
'XUDWLRQRIUHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQV>G@
'):8
'XUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNXVH>G@
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
;;,
'5&2
'XUDWLRQRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV>G@
'63
)RUPZRUNVWULSSLQJSHULRG>G@
'727
7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>G@
')3
'XUDWLRQRIILQDOSKDVH>G@
'03
'XUDWLRQRIPDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH>G@
'53
'XUDWLRQRIUDPSXSSKDVH>G@
'6&
'XUDWLRQRIVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV>G@
'&
'LVPDQWOLQJDQGGHPROLWLRQFRVWV>¼@
',1
'HXWVFKHV,QVWLWXWIU1RUPXQJ *HUPDQ,QVWLWXWHIRU6WDQGDUGL ]DWLRQ
( HWDO
HWDOLL DQGRWKHUV
HWF
HWFHWHUD
H9
(LQJHWUDJHQHU9HUHLQ UHJLVWHUHGDVVRFLDWLRQ
(LM
([SHUWYDOXHMIRUWKHOD\RXWL
(LMQHZ
6FDOHGH[SHUWYDOXHMIRUWKHOD\RXWL
(8
(XURSHDQ8QLRQ
( ;
([SHFWHGYDOXH
(;3
([SRQHQW
(G V
(GLWRU V
(T
(TXDWLRQ
) I
)ROORZLQJSDJH
II
)ROORZLQJSDJHV
IU
)RUPZRUNUDWLR>PðPñ@
IUEG
)RUPZRUNUDWLRIRUWKHHQWLUHEXLOGLQJ>PðPñ@
I:.
3URSRUWLRQDOIDFWRUIRUZRUNHUV>@
I [
)XQFWLRQRI[
I&:.
3URSRUWLRQDOLW\IDFWRUIRUFUDQHV>:.FUDQH@
)$
)RUPZRUNDUHD>Pð@
)$%(
%UHDNHYHQIRUPZRUNDUHD>Pð@
)$$'
)RUPZRUNDUHDIRUDVVHPEO\DQGGLVDVVHPEO\>Pð@
;;,,
)$75
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
)RUPZRUNDUHDGHOLYHUHGWRWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQVLWHSHUWUDQVSRUW F\FOH>Pð@
)$675
7RWDOIRUPZRUNDUHDRIWKHVWUXFWXUH>Pð@
),',&
)pGpUDWLRQ,QWHUQDWLRQDOHGHV,QJpQLHXUV&RQVHLOV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO)HGHUDWLRQRI&RQVXOWLQJ(QJLQHHUV
)0
)DFLOLW\0DQDJHPHQW
)0( & $
)DLOXUH0RGHDQG(IIHFWV DQG&ULWLFDOLW\ $QDO\VLV
)LJ V
)LJXUH V
* *&9
*URVVFXELFYROXPH>Pñ@
*)$
*URVVIORRUDUHD>Pð@
*HVPE+
*HVHOOVFKDIWPLWEHVFKUlQNWHU+DIWXQJ $XVWULDQFRPSDQ\ZLWK OLPLWHGOLDELOLW\ LQ*HUPDQ\DEEUHYLDWHGDV*PE+
*36
*OREDO3RVLWLRQLQJ6\VWHP
*&
*HQHUDO&RQWUDFWRU
+ K
+RXU V
+$&&3
+D]DUGDQG&ULWLFDO&RQWURO3RLQW
+$=23
+D]DUGDQG2SHUDELOLW\
+2$,
+RQRUDURUGQXQJIU$UFKLWHNWHQXQG,QJHQLHXUH >*HUPDQ@2IIL FLDO6FDOHRI)HHVIRU6HUYLFHVE\$UFKLWHFWVDQG(QJLQHHUV
+9$&
+HDWLQJ9HQWLODWLRQDQG$LU&RQGLWLRQLQJ
+5
+XPDQUHVRXUFHV
, ,
,QSXW
,
,QYHVWPHQWDPRXQWRUFRVW
LL
,PSXWHGLQWHUHVWUDWH
,QF
,QFRUSRUDWHG
LQFO
,QFOXGLQJ
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
,&%
,30$,QGLYLGXDO&RPSHWHQFH%DVHOLQH
,)&
,QGXVWU\)RXQGDWLRQ&ODVVHV
,30$
,QWHUQDWLRQDO3URMHFW0DQDJHPHQW$VVRFLDWLRQ
,45
,QWHUTXDUWLOHUDQJH
,62
,QWHUQDWLRQDO2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ
,7
,QIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\
;;,,,
. N
7XQLQJFRQVWDQW +XEHU¶V0HVWLPDWRU
.
0DWUL[
NJ
.LORJUDP
NP
.LORPHWHU
.6
.ROPRJRURY6PLUQRYWHVW
.6$
.ROPRJRURY6PLUQRYDQDO\VLV
/ λ
(LJHQYDOXH
/L
/D\RXWW\SHV
/%+%
/HLVWXQJVEHVFKUHLEXQJ+RFKEDX 6SHFLILFDWLRQRI:RUNVLQ %XLOGLQJ&RQVWUXFWLRQ
/&5
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH
/&5SVSZV
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH>ZK84@ SV±SURFHVVVWDJH S±SURFHVVZV±ZRUNVHFWLRQ
/&56&$9*
$YHUDJHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRIVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV >ZKPñ@
/&5)2
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRIIRUPZRUNRSHUDWLRQV>ZKPð@
/&552
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRIUHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQV>ZKW@
/&5&2
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRIFRQFUHWLQJRSHUDWLRQV>ZKPñ@
/&55&2
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV >ZKPñ@
/&&
/LIHF\FOHFRVWV>¼@
ǻ/&5:$,1&
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHGXHWRUHGXFHGDYDLODEOHZRUN DUHD>@
ǻ/&5&&,1&
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHGXHWRUHGXFHGFUDQHFDSDFLW\ >@
;;,9
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
Δ/&5
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVH
Δ/&5'
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHGXHWRQRQQRUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH
0 μ
([SHFWHGYDOXH
P
0HWHU
Pð
6TXDUHPHWHU
Pñ
&XELFPHWHU
PLQ
0LQXWHV
PP
0LOOLPHWHU
PR
0RQWKV
0$'
0HGLDQRIDEVROXWHGHYLDWLRQV
0$;
0D[LPXP
0&
0DLQWHQDQFHFRVWV>¼@
0,1
0LQLPXP
06&
0DWKHPDWLFV6XEMHFW&ODVVLILFDWLRQ
09
0HDQYDOXH
0:
0HDQZDJH>¼ZK@
1 Q
1XPEHURIPHQWLRQVSHUTXHVWLRQ>@
QEV
1XPEHURIEXLOGLQJVHFWLRQV>@
QI
1XPEHURIIORRUV>@
QZV
1XPEHURIZRUNVHFWLRQVSHUIORRU>@
QZVV
1XPEHURIZRUNVHFWLRQVWREHZRUNHGRQVLPXOWDQHRXVO\ >@
139
1HWSUHVHQWYDOXH
1R12
1XPEHU
12&
1XPEHURIFUDQHV
12&:.
1XPEHURIFUDQHVUHODWLYHWRWKHQXPEHURIZRUNHUV
12&237
2SWLPXPQXPEHURIFUDQHV
12&$9
1XPEHURIDYDLODEOHFUDQHV
121(*&255
1XPEHURIQHJDWLYHFRUUHODWLRQV
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
;;9
2 2
2XWSXW
2&
2SHUDWLQJFRVWV>¼@
2))252
2IIVHWEHWZHHQIRUPZRUNDQGUHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQV>G@
2(%*/
gVWHUUHLFKLVFKH%DXJHUlWHOLVWH $XVWULDQ/LVWRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ (TXLSPHQW
g**
gVWHUUHLFKLVFKH*HVHOOVFKDIWIU*HRPHFKDQLN $XVWULDQ6RFLHW\ IRU*HRPHFKDQLFV
21
gVWHUUHLFKLVFKHV1RUPXQJVLQVWLWXW $XVWULDQ6WDQGDUGV,QVWLWXWH
2(1250
gVWHUUHLFKLVFKH1RUP $XVWULDQVWDQGDUG
215
215HJHO 215XOH
25
2SHUDWLRQV5HVHDUFK
3 S
3DJH V
S
SYDOXH
S
3HUFHQWDJH>@
SF V
3LHFH V
SEEV
%XLOGLQJVHFWLRQVWREHZRUNHGRQVLPXOWDQHRXVO\>@
3/1250$;
0D[LPXPQRUPDOODERUSURGXFWLYLW\
3/125$9*
$YHUDJHQRUPDOODERUSURGXFWLYLW\
3(57
3URJUDP(YDOXDWLRQDQG5HYLHZ7HFKQLTXH
3)
3URGXFWLRQIDFWRU V
3&
3ULFHFRPSRQHQWV
3%
3ULFLQJEDVHV
3)0$;
0D[LPXPXWLOL]DWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV
3)$9*
$YHUDJHXWLOL]DWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV
3,/
3DWLHQWLQIRUPDWLRQOHDIOHW
30
3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQW
33+
3URMHFWSKDVH V
333
3XEOLF3ULYDWH3DUWQHUVKLS
34SVSZV
3URGXFWLRQTXDQWLW\ SV±SURFHVVVWDJHS±SURFHVV ZV±ZRUNVHFWLRQ
39
3HUIRUPDQFH YDOXH
39),
'DLO\IRUPZRUNSHUIRUPDQFH LQVWDOODWLRQRQO\ >PðG@
;;9,
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
39*
*URVVWHFKQLFDOSHUIRUPDQFH
391
1HWWHFKQLFDOSHUIRUPDQFH
396&$9*
$YHUDJHSHUIRUPDQFHYDOXHRIVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV>PñG@
36
3ODQQLQJDQGVSHFLILFDWLRQTXDOLW\
3:+5&2
3DLGZRUNLQJKRXUVRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV>ZK@
3:+SVSF
3DLGZRUNLQJKRXUV>ZK@ SV±SURFHVVVWDJHS±SURFHVV F±FRPSRQHQW
32SVSF
3URGXFWLRQRXWSXW>84@ SV±SURFHVVVWDJHS±SURFHVV F±FRPSRQHQW
395&2$9*
$YHUDJHSHUIRUPDQFHYDOXHRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV>PñG@
Δ3/
/RVVRISURGXFWLYLW\
Δ3/'
/RVVRISURGXFWLYLW\GXHWRQRQQRUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
4 4S
4XDQWLOHYDOXH
4*
4XDOLW\*DWH V
5 U
&RUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQW
U3
5DWHRISODFLQJ
U33
3HUPLVVLEOHUDWHRISODFLQJ
UU
5HLQIRUFHPHQWUDWLR>WPñ@RU>NJPñ@
UV
5DQNFRUUHODWLRQ
U[\
3URGXFWPRPHQWFRUUHODWLRQ
5
5LVN
5)
5HLQIRUFHPHQW
5475
4XDQWLW\RIUHLQIRUFHPHQWGHOLYHUHGWRWKHVLWHSHUWUDQVSRUW F\FOH>W@
5&2
5HLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV
5()$
9HUEDQGIU$UEHLWVJHVWDOWXQJ%HWULHEVRUJDQLVDWLRQXQG8QWHU QHKPHQVHQWZLFNOXQJ $VVRFLDWLRQIRU:RUN'HVLJQ%XVLQHVV 2UJDQL]DWLRQDQG&RUSRUDWH'HYHORSPHQW
596
5LFKWOLQLHQXQG9RUVFKULIWHQIUGDV6WUDHQZHVHQ >$XVWULDQ@ *XLGHOLQHVDQG5HJXODWLRQVIRUWKH3ODQQLQJ&RQVWUXFWLRQDQG 0DLQWHQDQFHRI5RDGV
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
5I3
;;9,,
5HTXHVWIRU3URSRVDOV
6 σ
6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ
Σ
6XP
V
6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ
σð
9DULDQFH
V[
6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRI[
V[\
&RYDULDQFH
V\
6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRI\
6)$
6WDQGDUGIORRUDUHD>Pð@
64)
6WRFNLQJTXDQWLW\ VWRFNDYDLODEOHDQGGHSOR\DEOHRQVLWH RI IRUPZRUN>Pð@
646)
6WRFNLQJTXDQWLW\ VWRFNDYDLODEOHDQGGHSOR\DEOHRQVLWH RI VODEIRUPZRUN>Pð@
64:)
6WRFNLQJTXDQWLW\ VWRFNDYDLODEOHDQGGHSOR\DEOHRQVLWH RI ZDOOIRUPZRUN>Pð@
6L*(
6LFKHUKHLWXQG*HVXQGKHLWVVFKXW] +HDOWKDQG6DIHW\
6LP
6LPXODWLRQ
6LP1R
6LPXODWLRQQXPEHU
6WG'HY
6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ
6W*%
6WUDIJHVHW]EXFK >$XVWULDQ@&ULPLQDO&RGH
6W/%%DX
6WDQGDUGOHLVWXQJVEXFK%DX >*HUPDQ@6WDQGDUG6HUYLFHV%RRN IRU&RQVWUXFWLRQ
6:27
6WUHQJWKV:HDNQHVVHV2SSRUWXQLWLHVDQG7KUHDWV
6&
6RLOFODVV HV
7 W
7RQ V
W
&RQWLQXRXVLQGH[LQSHULRG HJ\HDUV
WF
7UDQVSRUWFRHIILFLHQW>84@
WFI
7UDQVSRUWFRHIILFLHQWRIIRUPZRUN>Pð@
WFU
7UDQVSRUWFRHIILFLHQWRIUHLQIRUFHPHQW>W@
WFF
7UDQVSRUWFRHIILFLHQWRIFRQFUHWH>Pñ@
W,
,GOHWLPH>K@
;;9,,,
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
W(
(TXLSPHQWWLPH>K@
WU
5HIHUHQFHSRLQWLQWLPH
W$8
$GGLWLRQDOXWLOL]DWLRQWLPH>K@
W%(
%DVLFHTXLSPHQWXWLOL]DWLRQWLPH>K@
7
5HSRUWLQJSHULRGPRVWUHFHQWSHULRG
7+
7HFKQLVFKH+RFKVFKXOH 8QLYHUVLW\RI$SSOLHG6FLHQFHV
703
7HPSHUDWXUH
75
1XPEHURIWUDQVSRUWF\FOHV
78
7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWlW 8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
8 8
7KURXJKSXW
84
8QLWRITXDQWLW\
83
8QLWSULFH V
88
8QLWRIXVH
8)6
8VDEOHIORRUVSDFH
896
8QDEKlQJLJHU9HUZDOWXQJVVHQDW >$XVWULDQ@,QGHSHQGHQW$GPL QLVWUDWLYH6HQDWH
9 9DU ;
9DULDQFH
9',
9HUHLQ'HXWVFKHU,QJHQLHXUH 7KH$VVRFLDWLRQRI*HUPDQ (QJLQHHUV
92%
9HUJDEHXQG9HUWUDJVRUGQXQJIU%DXOHLVWXQJHQ *HUPDQ&RQ VWUXFWLRQ&RQWUDFW3URFHGXUHV
9g%9
9HUEDQGgVWHUUHLFKLVFKH%LHJHXQG9HUOHJHWHFKQLN $XVWULDQ $VVRFLDWLRQIRU%HQGLQJDQG,QVWDOODWLRQRI&RQFUHWH5HLQIRUFH PHQW
YV
YHUVXV
9Z*+
9HUZDOWXQJVJHULFKWVKRI >$XVWULDQ@6XSUHPH$GPLQLVWUDWLYH &RXUW
96&7
9HU\VKRUWFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
$EEUHYLDWLRQV$FURQ\PV DQG1RWDWLRQV
;;,;
: :$$9
$YDLODEOHZRUNDUHDSHUZRUNHU>Pð:.@
:$0,1
0LQLPXPZRUNDUHDUHTXLUHGSHUZRUNHU>Pð:.@
:$5('
:RUNDUHDUHGXFWLRQ>@
:$727
7RWDOZRUNDUHD>Pð@
:.
:RUNHU V
:.$9*
$YHUDJHQXPEHURIZRUNHUV>ZKK@
:.0$;
0D[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUV>ZKK@
:.5&2$9*
$YHUDJHQXPEHURIZRUNHUVIRUUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV >ZKK@
:.5&20$;
0D[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUVIRUUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV >ZKK@
:3
:RUNSKDVH V
ZK
3DLGZRUNLQJKRXUV>ZK@
ZV
:RUNVHFWLRQ
:7
'DLO\ZRUNLQJWLPH>KG@
:75&2
'DLO\ZRUNLQJWLPHRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV>KG@
:*
:RUNJURXS V
; ;S
4XDQWLOHYDOXH
[ࡃL
0HDQYDOXH
< ܢL
0HDQYDOXH
= =$0*
=HQWUDODQVWDOWIU0HWHRURORJLHXQG*HRG\QDPLN >$XVWULDQ@ &HQWUDO$JHQF\IRU0HWHRURORJ\DQG*HRG\QDPLFV
=7
=LYLOWHFKQLNHU >$XVWULDQ@FKDUWHUHGHQJLQHHULQJFRQVXOWDQW
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
;;;,,
$XWKRUV
5HVRXUFHVDYLQJGHVLJQEXLOGRSHUDWHDSSURDFKHV 0RGHOLQJVLPXODWLRQDQGSURFHVVHV 'LJLWL]DWLRQRISURFHVVHVEXLOGLQJVDQGVWUXFWXUHVDQGSURGXFWLRQFRQGLWLRQV 8VHRIDUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHLQFRQVWUXFWLRQPDQDJHPHQWDQGHFRQRPLFV
'LSO,QJ'UWHFKQ0DUNXV.XPPHU 'HSXW\&KDLURIWKH ,QVWLWXWHRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DQDJHPHQWDQG(FRQRPLFV *UD]8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\ /HVVLQJVWUDH *UD]$XVWULD PDUNXVNXPPHU#WXJUD]DW ZZZEEZWXJUD]DW LQIR#PDUNXVNXPPHUDW ZZZPDUNXVNXPPHUDW 'U0DUNXV.XPPHUJUDGXDWHGIURP*UD]8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\REWDLQLQJDPDVWHU¶V GHJUHH LQ LQGXVWULDO HQJLQHHULQJFRQVWUXFWLRQ HQJLQHHULQJ VFLHQFHV +LV PDVWHU¶V WKHVLV ZDVHQWLWOHG³$SSOLFDWLRQRIWKH0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQIRUWKH&DOFXODWLRQRI%XLOGLQJ &RVWVDQG%XLOGLQJ7LPH´ 6LQFH KH KDV EHHQ ZRUNLQJ DV DQ LQGHSHQGHQW SURIHVVLRQDO SUHSDULQJ H[SHUW RSLQLRQVLQWKHILHOGRIFRQVWUXFWLRQPDQDJHPHQWDQGHFRQRPLFV6LQFH$XJXVWKH KDVDOVREHHQLQWKHUROHRIXQLYHUVLW\SURMHFWDVVLVWDQWDW*UD]8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\ IROORZHGE\DVHQLRUSURMHFWVFLHQWLVWSRVLWLRQDWWKH,QVWLWXWHRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DQDJHPHQW DQG (FRQRPLFV VLQFH $XJXVW +H KDV DOVR EHHQ DFWLYHO\ LQYROYHG LQ DFDGHPLF WHDFKLQJVLQFH+HLVWKHGHSXW\KHDGRIWKHZRUNLQJJURXSRQWKH³0DQDJHPHQWRI &KDQFHVDQG5LVNVDQG'LJLWL]DWLRQ´DQGLVDPHPEHURIWKH)DFXOW\%RDUG +LVGRFWRUDOWKHVLVHQWLWOHG³$JJUHJDWHG&RQVLGHUDWLRQRI/RVVHVRI3URGXFWLYLW\LQ'HWHU PLQLQJ &RQVWUXFWLRQ &RVWVDQG7LPHV ± 'HWHUPLQLVWLFDQG3UREDELOLVWLF$QDO\VHV´ GHDOW ZLWKQRQOLQHDULWLHVDQGXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQRIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVDQGWLPHV+H REWDLQHGKLVGRFWRUDWHLQ'HFHPEHU+LVWKHVLVUHFHLYHGWZRDZDUGVQDPHO\WKHJLI *HUPDQ 6RFLHW\ RI 3URSHUW\ 5HVHDUFKHUV 5HVHDUFK $ZDUG DQG WKH '93 *HUPDQ $VVRFLDWLRQ IRU 3URMHFW 0DQDJHPHQW LQ WKH &RQVWUXFWLRQ DQG 5HDO (VWDWH ,QGXVWULHV 6SRQVRUVKLS$ZDUG 'U 0DUNXV .XPPHU LV WKH DXWKRU DQG FRDXWKRU RI VHYHUDO QDWLRQDO DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO DUWLFOHV LQ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ HQJLQHHULQJ VFLHQFHV ILHOG DV ZHOO DV FRKRVW RI VFLHQWLILF FRQIHUHQFHVDQGFRHGLWRURIFRPSLODWLRQVRQVHOHFWHGWRSLFVLQFRQVWUXFWLRQPDQDJHPHQW DQG HFRQRPLFV +H JDLQHG KDQGVRQ H[SHULHQFH ZKLOH ZRUNLQJ ZLWK FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRQWUDFWRUVDQGHQJLQHHULQJFRQVXOWLQJILUPVSULRUWRDQGGXULQJKLVGHJUHHFRXUVH
,QWURGXFWLRQ
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
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 C. Hofstadler and M. Kummer, Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics, Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64014-9_1
,QWURGXFWLRQ
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
,Q FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQW SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV FRPSULVH HOHPHQWDU\ ODERU HTXLSPHQW DQG PDFKLQHU\ PDWHULDOV DQG GLVFUHWLRQDU\ IDFWRUV SURMHFW PDQDJHUV VLWH PDQDJHUV WHFKQLFLDQV HWF SHUIRUPLQJ D UDQJH RI GLIIHUHQW DFWLYLWLHV LQFOXGLQJ SODQQLQJ PDQDJHPHQWFRQWUROVHOHFWLRQRUJDQL]DWLRQFRPPXQLFDWLRQDQGGRFXPHQWDWLRQDVZHOO DVNQRZOHGJHZRUN VHH)LJ ,QDQLGHDOVHWWLQJQHDUUHDOWLPHIHHGEDFNORRSVDUH XVHG WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH GHJUHH RI SURGXFWLYH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH HOHPHQWDU\ SURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV
)LJ
&RPELQDWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUVIRUDFKLHYLQJWRWDOSURGXFWLYLW\±7ZRGLPHQVLRQDO V\VWHP
2Q WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VLWH ZRUNHUV FRPELQH HTXLSPHQW DQG PDFKLQHU\ ZLWK WKH DLP RI SHUIRUPLQJWKHVSHFLILHGFRQVWUXFWLRQRSHUDWLRQVDWD³QRUPDO´SURGXFWLYLW\ OHYHO7KH WLPHZLWKLQZKLFKZRUNLVSHUIRUPHGDQGWKHLQWHQVLW\RIUHVRXUFHXWLOL]DWLRQKDYHDPDMRU LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH DFKLHYDEOH SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG WKXV RQ WKH LQFXUUHG FRVWV $ GHILFLW LV JHQHUDWHG LI WKH FRQWUDFWRU LQFXUV KLJKHU FRVWV WKDQ VWDWHG LQ WKH FRQWUDFW FRVWLQJ DQG
&I+RIVWDGOHU S 7KHDYHUDJHQRUPDOSURGXFWLYLW\UHIHUVWRWKHPLQLPXPKXPDQSURGXFWLYLW\WKDWFDQEHDFKLHYHGRQDYHUDJHLQWKH ORQJWHUPE\DQGH[SHFWHGRIDQ\FRPSHWHQWZRUNHUDIWHUVXIILFLHQWWUDLQLQJDQGIDPLOLDUL]DWLRQZLWKRXWKDUPLQJWKHLU KHDOWK LI FRPSO\LQJ ZLWK WKH VSHFLILHG WLPH IRU SHUVRQDO QHHGV DQG UHFRYHU\ LI DSSOLFDEOH 1RWH 'HULYHG IURP WKH 5()$QRUPDOSHUIRUPDQFHGHILQLWLRQ&I+RIVWDGOHU S
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
SULFLQJH[HUFLVH'HSHQGLQJRQWKHSDUW\FDXVLQJWKLVGLIIHUHQFHDQGWKHSURYLVLRQVDJUHHG XSRQLQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQFRQWUDFWWKHFRQWUDFWRUZLOOEHERXQGWREHDUWKLVDGGLWLRQDOFRVW RUPD\WUDQVIHUWKHWRWDOFRVWRUSDUWVWKHUHRIWRWKHFOLHQW,QWKLVFRQWH[WWKHFRQFHSWRI FRVWVUHIHUVWRWKHFRQVXPSWLRQRIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVH[SUHVVHGLQPRQHWDU\DPRXQWV
)LJ
&RPELQDWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUVIRUDFKLHYLQJWRWDOSURGXFWLYLW\±7KUHHGLPHQVLRQDO V\VWHP
7KLV WZRGLPHQVLRQDO V\VWHP RI WRWDO SURGXFWLYLW\ QHHGV WR EH FRPSOHPHQWHG E\ DQ DGGLWLRQDO GLPHQVLRQ EHFDXVH WKH SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV DUH LQIOXHQFHG SDUWLFXODUO\ E\ WKH FRQGLWLRQVLQWKHVLWHVXUURXQGLQJVDQGWKHHQYLURQPHQWWKHW\SHVKDSHDQGFRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH SURMHFW WKH TXDOLWLHV DQG TXDQWLWLHV WR EH DFKLHYHG DQG ± ODVW EXW QRW OHDVW ± WKH VSHFLILHGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH VHH)LJ
'HULYHGIURP+RIVWDGOHU S
,QWURGXFWLRQ
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±ODVWEXWQRWOHDVW±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
&I+RIVWDGOHU S &I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU D S
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
:HDOVRQHHGWRPDNHDGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQGLIIHUHQWSKDVHVZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHW\SHVRI ZRUN %XLOGLQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURMHFWV DUH XVXDOO\ GLYLGHG LQWR WKH VKHOO FRQVWUXFWLRQ ILQLVKLQJVHUYLFHVDQGXWLOLWLHVDQGIDoDGHLQVWDOODWLRQVWDJHV:HVKRXOGDOVRFRQVLGHUWKH LQWHUQDOVHTXHQFHRIWKHVHSKDVHVDVZHOODVWKHFUXFLDOFRPSOLDQFHZLWKWKHFULWLFDODSSUR [LPDWLRQ
$SSO\LQJWKH7UDSH]RLGDO0RGHOLQ&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DQDJH PHQW
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
:.0$; :.$9*
E
D '53
'53
5DPSXSSKDVH >G@
')3
)LQDOSKDVH>G@
'03
0DLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH >G@
'727
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>G@
')3
:.0$;
0D[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUV>ZKK@
:.$9*
$YHUDJHQXPEHURIZRUNHUV>ZKK@
)LJ
'03 '727
$SSOLFDWLRQRIWKHWUDSH]RLGDOPRGHOLQGLFDWLQJUHVRXUFHXWLOL]DWLRQ±'HYHORSPHQWRISUR GXFWLRQIDFWRUV LQWKLVFDVHZRUNHUV RYHUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQSHULRG LGHDOL]HGPRGHO
+RIVWDGOHU S
,QWURGXFWLRQ
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
'HWHUPLQLQJWKH6XPRI3DLG:RUNLQJ+RXUV
:H DSSO\ (T WR FDOFXODWH WKH VXP RI SDLG ZRUNLQJ KRXUV 3:+5&2 >ZK@ IRU UHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV7RGRVRZHDGGXSWKHWRWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH GXUDWLRQ '727 >G@DQGWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKHPDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH'03 >G@DQGPXOWLSO\WKHUHVXOW ZLWK WKH PD[LPXP QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV :.0$; >ZKK@ DQG WKH GDLO\ ZRUNLQJ WLPH :7 >KG@IROORZHGE\DGLYLVLRQE\
3:+ 5&2
⋅ ( ' 727 ' 03 ) ⋅ :. 0$; ⋅ :7
'HWHUPLQLQJ&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHDQG1XPEHURI:RUNHUV
$WWKHSUHOLPLQDU\SODQQLQJVWDJHWKHJURVVFXELFYROXPHRUUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHYROXPH LVXVHGIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHSURGXFWLRQRXWSXWLQWKHVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH,IZHDSSO\ WKH UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH YROXPH ZH REWDLQ WKH UHTXLUHG DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV :.$9* >ZKK@IURP(T :. $9*
& 9 ⋅ /&5 5&2 ' 727 ⋅ :7
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
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
:. 0$;
12 & ⋅ I &:.
:HREWDLQWKHPD[LPXPYDOXHIURP(T LIWKHQXPEHURIZRUNHUVLVGHSHQGHQWRQ WKHZRUNDUHD :. 0$;
:$ 727 :$ 0,1
7KHQXPHUDWRULQFOXGHVWKHWRWDOZRUNDUHD:$727>P@WKDWLVDYDLODEOHRQDYHUDJHGXULQJ WKHPDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH WKHGHQRPLQDWRULQGLFDWHVWKHPLQLPXPZRUNDUHDUHTXLUHG SHU ZRUNHU:$0,1 >P:.@7KHORZHU RIWKHYDOXHVFDOFXODWHGDSSO\LQJ(T DQG (T ZLOOGHWHUPLQHWKHVXEVHTXHQWFDOFXODWLRQVWHSV ,IZHDSSO\WKHDYHUDJHVWDQGDUGIORRUDUHDIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHH[LVWLQJRUUHTXLUHGZRUN DUHDZHREWDLQWKHQXPEHURIZRUNVHFWLRQVWREHZRUNHGRQVLPXOWDQHRXVO\QZVV>@IURP (T Q ZVV
Q ZV ⋅ :. 0$; ⋅ :$ 0,1 $ 6)
7KHQXPHUDWRULQFOXGHVWKHSURGXFWRIWKHQXPEHURIZRUNVHFWLRQVSHUIORRUQZV >@WKH PD[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUV:.0$; >ZKK@DQGWKHPLQLPXPZRUNDUHDUHTXLUHGSHU ZRUNHU :$0,1 >P:.@ 7KH DYHUDJH VWDQGDUG IORRU DUHD $6) >P@ LV HQWHUHG LQ WKH GHQRPLQDWRU $FFRUGLQJWRWKHFDOFXODWLRQWKHPD[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUVUHTXLUHGIROORZVIURP(T LQDQDORJ\WRGHWHUPLQLQJWKHDUHDRIDQLUUHJXODUWUDSH]RLG :. 0$;
' 727 ⋅ :. $9* ' 03 ⋅ ( ' 53 ' )3 )
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
' 727 ± ' 03
,QWURGXFWLRQ
7KH GXUDWLRQ RI WKH PDLQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ SKDVH LV GHULYHG IURP (T LI WKH PD[LPXP GXUDWLRQDVZHOODVWKHDYHUDJHDQGPD[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUVDUHNQRZQ ⋅ ' 727 ⋅ :. $9* ± ' 727 :. 0$;
' 03
7KHPDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJ(T FUHDWHVWKHEDVLVIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKH GXUDWLRQRIWKHUDPSXSDQGILQDOSKDVHV $V D ILUVW DSSUR[LPDWLRQ GHULYHG IURP DQDO\]LQJ WKH SURFHVV RI FRQVWUXFWLQJ VHYHUDO EXLOGLQJVKHOOVZHFDQDVVXPHWKHILQDOSKDVHRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQVWRODVWIRU DERXWRQHWKLUGRIWKHUDPSXSSKDVH ,QVHUWLQJ(T LQ(T ' )3
⋅ ' 53
JLYHV ' 53
⋅ ( ' 727 ± ' 03 )
,IWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKHUDPSXSDQGILQDOSKDVHVFDOFXODWHGDFFRUGLQJWR(T DQG(T LV WRR VKRUW IURP D FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQW SRLQW RI YLHZ WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ SHULRGVQHHGWREHSURORQJHGDWWKHH[SHQVHRIWKHPDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH$ORQJHUWRWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVKRXOGWKXVEHVFKHGXOHGLIDQGZKHQUHTXLUHG7KHFKDQJHGGXUDWLRQRI WKH PDLQ SKDVH LV FDOFXODWHG E\ DSSO\LQJ WKH YDOXHV WR (T $V D UHVXOW WKH YDOXH GHVLJQDWLQJWKHUHTXLUHGPD[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUVZLOODOVRLQFUHDVH $SSO\LQJ(T WR(T GHOLYHUVWKHIROORZLQJ
:. 0$;
' 727 ⋅ :. $9* ⋅ ( ' 727 ' 03 )
7KH FDOFXODWLRQ DFFRUGLQJ WR (T LV QHFHVVDU\ LI WKH WRWDO GXUDWLRQ PDLQ FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHDQGDYHUDJHQXPEHURIZRUNHUVDUHNQRZQRUKDYHDOUHDG\EHHQFDOFX ODWHGDQGLIWKHPD[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUVUHPDLQVWREHGHWHUPLQHG7KHUDWLRRIWKH DYHUDJHWRWKHPD[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUVXVXDOO\OLHVEHWZHHQDQGDQGHVVHQ WLDOO\GHSHQGVRQWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKHUDPSXSDQGILQDOSKDVHV
(IILFLHQF\DQG(IIHFWLYHQHVV
$Q\ HIIHFWLYH RU HIILFLHQW FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURFHVV LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ RSWLPDOO\ FRPELQLQJ WKHLQGLYLGXDOSURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV7KLVRSWLPDOFRPELQDWLRQLVUHDFKHGLIWKHSURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUVFDQEHXWLOL]HGDWDQRUPDOSURGXFWLYLW\OHYHO 7KH QRWLRQ RI HIIHFWLYHQHVV GHVFULEHV WKH GHJUHH RI WDUJHW DFKLHYHPHQW ZKHUHDV WKH
&I+RIVWDGOHU S
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
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
HIIHFWLYH
)LQLVK
6WDUW
6WDUW )LQLVK
)LQLVK
LQHIIHFWLYH
8WLOL]DWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV
)LQLVK
6WDUW
6WDUW
LQHIILFLHQW
HIILFLHQW
8WLOL]DWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV )LJ
'LIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQHIIHFWLYHQHVVDQGHIILFLHQF\
7KHXSSHUOHIWTXDGUDQWGHVFULEHVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQVXFFHVVIXOWDUJHWDFKLHYHPHQW HIIHFWLYH DQG DQ XQHFRQRPLFDO XWLOL]DWLRQ RI SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV LQHIILFLHQW ,Q WKLV VFHQDULRWKHSURMHFWZDVDFKLHYHGDWDYHU\KLJK EDVLFDOO\DYRLGDEOH FRVW7KHRWKHUWZR FDVHVGHVFULEHWKHHIILFLHQWXWLOL]DWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV LHWKHLURSWLPDOFRPELQDWLRQ DWDQRUPDOSURGXFWLYLW\OHYHO EXWZLWKDGLIIHUHQWGHJUHHRIWDUJHWDFKLHYHPHQW,QWKH
&I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU D S
,QWURGXFWLRQ
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¶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
$FFXUDF\'LVWRUWLRQDQG6SUHDG
6WDWLQJ GHWHUPLQLVWLF UHVXOWV IRU SULFLQJ DQG FRVWLQJ VXJJHVWV D YHU\ DFFXUDWH IRUHFDVW FKDUDFWHUL]HGE\KLJKSUHFLVLRQDQGFRUUHFWQHVV VHH)LJIRUWKHGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQ WKHVH WHUPV 7KLV VLWXDWLRQ SRVHV SUREOHPV EHFDXVH VXFK UHVXOWV DUH OLNHO\ WR EH YHU\ SUHFLVH\HWLQFRUUHFWDQGWKXVLQDFFXUDWHLQPRVWFDVHV
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
1RGLVWRUWLRQ 1DUURZVSUHDG
3UHFLVHFRUUHFW YHU\ DFFXUDWH
6WURQJGLVWRUWLRQ 1DUURZVSUHDG
3UHFLVHFRUUHFW LQDFFXUDWH
1RGLVWRUWLRQ :LGHVSUHDG
3UHFLVH FRUUHFW DFFXUDWH )LJ
6WURQJGLVWRUWLRQ :LGHVSUHDG
3UHFLVH FRUUHFW LQDFFXUDWH
'LVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQDFFXUDWHSUHFLVHDQGFRUUHFWSUHGLFWLRQV
3UREDELOLVWLF FDOFXODWLRQV LH FDOFXODWLRQV EDVHG RQ SUREDELOLW\ WKHRU\ GHOLEHUDWHO\ LQWHJUDWH WKH H[LVWLQJ XQFHUWDLQWLHV DQG YLVXDOL]H WKHP DV KLVWRJUDPV ZKHQ DQDO\]LQJ UHVXOWV7KHDLPLVWRREWDLQDFFXUDWHUHVXOWVDQGWRKLWWKH³PRYLQJWDUJHW´RIFRVWVDQG FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVDVFHQWUDOO\DVSRVVLEOHE\IUHHO\FKRRVLQJDFRUUHVSRQGLQJFKDQFHULVN UDWLR VHH)LJ 7KLVWDUJHWLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHPRYLQJEHFDXVHWDUJHWVDUHQRWDOZD\V FOHDUO\ GHILQHG RU PD\ FKDQJH RYHU WLPH IRU LQVWDQFH RZLQJ WR LQVXIILFLHQW GHWDLOLQJ LQ WHUPVRISODQQLQJDQGVSHFLILFDWLRQ ,QWKHWRSOHIWSDUWRI)LJVHYHUDOWHVWV LQWKHILJXUDWLYHVHQVHIRULQVWDQFHIRUGHWHU PLQLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH OHGWRKLWWLQJWKHEXOO¶VH\HRIWKHWDUJHWZLWKDQDUURZVSUHDG DQGZLWKRXWGLVWRUWLRQ7KLVSDWWHUQRIKLWVLQGLFDWHVYHU\DFFXUDWHUHVXOWV³9HU\DFFXUDWH´ LVV\QRQ\PRXVZLWKWKH³SUHFLVH´DQG³FRUUHFW´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³YHU\ DFFXUDWH´ ZKLFK QHFHVVLWDWHV FRUUHFWQHVV DQG SUHFLVLRQ $OWKRXJK WKH\ ODFN
6HHDOVR',1,62 S &I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU D S
,QWURGXFWLRQ
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
&RPSOH[LW\RI6\VWHPV
$V\VWHPLVHVVHQWLDOO\FRPSRVHGRIVHYHUDOVWUXFWXUHGHOHPHQWVZLWKVSHFLILFFKDUDFWHU LVWLFVWKDWDUHLQWHUUHODWHGWRRQHDQRWKHU VHHWKHSULQFLSOHVKRZQLQ)LJ 1HWZRUNHG V\VWHPV IXQFWLRQLQJ DFFRUGLQJ WR ORJLFDO UXOHV UHSUHVHQW XVHIXO LQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQWEXLOGDEOH SURFHVVHV
&I+RIVWDGOHU D S &I.XPPHU D S
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
6XUURXQGLQJVDQGHQYLURQPHQW 6XEV\VWHP
6XEV\VWHPL
0DLQV\VWHP
(OHPHQWV
5HODWLRQVKLSV
)LJ
6\VWHPERXQGDU\
&RQVWLWXHQWVRIV\VWHPV
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
&I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU D S &IKWWS ZLUWVFKDIWVOH[LNRQJDEOHUGH$UFKLYV\VWHPYKWPO$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU
,QWURGXFWLRQ
&RPSOH[V\VWHPVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHIROORZLQJDWWULEXWHV 0DQ\GLIIHUHQWLQIOXHQWLDOSDUDPHWHUV 9HU\VWURQJQHWZRUNLQJ '\QDPLFLQWHUDFWLRQV $XWRSRLHWLF V\VWHPV DUH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ VHOIUHSURGXFWLRQ &KLOHDQ QHXURELRORJLVW Humberto Maturana GHYHORSHG WKH FRQFHSW RI autopoiesis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
6RFLDOV\VWHPV
6RFLRWHFKQLFDO V\VWHPV
7HFKQLFDOV\VWHPV
&\EHUSK\VLFDO V\VWHPV
+XPDQKXPDQ V\VWHPV
+XPDQPDFKLQH V\VWHPV
0DFKLQHPDFKLQH V\VWHPV
'LJLWDOQHWZRUNLQJRI V\VWHPV
7KHW\SHRISURGXFWLRQV\VWHPDOVRKDVDPDMRULQIOXHQFHRQFRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQWSURGXFWLYLW\WKHH[WHQWRIGLJLWL]DWLRQDQGXOWLPDWHO\FRVWV )LJ
7\SHVRIV\VWHPVLQFRQVWUXFWLRQPDQDJHPHQW
&I6LPRQ S
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
6\VWHPVWKHRU\DOVRSURYLGHVWKHVWDUWLQJSRLQWLQODERUVFLHQFHVDQGDQDO\VHVUHODWHGWR FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQW 7KH 5()$ PHWKRGRORJ\ GHILQHV D V\VWHP DV DQ HQWLW\ FRPSRVHG RI HOHPHQWV ZKRVH UHODWLRQVKLSV VHUYH D FHUWDLQ SXUSRVH 'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH GHJUHHRIGHWDLOZHFDQFRQVLGHUDVLQJOHZRUNSODFHDQHQWLUHFRPSDQ\DVHFWRURIWKH HFRQRP\RUWKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\WREHDV\VWHP ,QEXVLQHVVDQGHFRQRPLFVZHVWDUWIURPWKHLQYROYHGV\VWHPHOHPHQWV VHH)LJ WR GLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQ
WHFKQLFDOV\VWHPV PDFKLQHV\VWHPV VRFLDOV\VWHPV KXPDQKXPDQV\VWHPV VRFLRWHFKQLFDOV\VWHPV KXPDQPDFKLQHV\VWHPV DQG WKHF\EHUSK\VLFDO GLJLWDO QHWZRUNLQJRIV\VWHPV
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
⋅⋅⋅…⋅Q
Q
∏N
N
,IRQO\RQHRIWKHSHUPXWDWLRQVZHUHSHUPLVVLEOHIRULQVWDOODWLRQWKHSUREDELOLW\IRUWKH ZRUNHUV WR LQVWDOO WKH OD\HUV LQ WKH FRUUHFW VHTXHQFH ZRXOG DPRXQW WR RQO\ DERXW
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
,QWURGXFWLRQ
SURYLGHG WKDW QRQH RI WKHVH RSWLRQV FDQ EH H[FOXGHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI SULRUH[SHULHQFHRUDGGLWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQ
)LJ
,OOXVWUDWLRQ±&RPSOH[LW\RIV\VWHPV±&RQVWUXFWLQJDIRXUOD\HUVXEJUDGH
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¶VDQGWKHFRQWUDFWRU¶VSRLQWRIYLHZ
&I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU D S
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQ6\VWHPV
%HVLGHV FRPSOH[LW\ XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQFOXGHG LQ DOO V\VWHPV DQG PRGHOV DUH RI SDUWLFXODU LPSRUWDQFHIRUSHUIRUPLQJLQYHVWLJDWLRQVDQGDQDO\VHV
7DUJHW
6\VWHP
2XWSXW
)LJ
,QSXW
7DUJHW
6\VWHP
,QSXW
2XWSXW
&RPSDULVRQ±)XQQHOH[SHULPHQWYHUVXVSURGXFWLRQV\VWHP
5HSUHVHQWLQJ WKH KLJKO\ FRPSOLFDWHG RU FRPSOH[ SURGXFWLRQ V\VWHP LQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQWDQGHFRQRPLFVWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGWKHLUHIIHFWVRQUHVXOWVDUHLOOXVWUDWHGE\ PHDQV RI D IXQQHO H[SHULPHQW 7KLV PHDQLQJIXO FRPSDULVRQ LV SRVVLEOH EHFDXVH ERWK V\VWHPVDUHGHILQHGE\DVHWWDUJHWDQLQSXWDQGDQRXWSXWWKDWFDQEHGHULYHGIURPLW VHH )LJ 7KHIXQQHOH[SHULPHQWXVHVDJDOORZVVHWXSRQZKLFKDIXQQHOLVPRXQWHG7KLVDVVHPEO\ LVSXWRQDWDEOHRQZKLFKDVKHHWRISDSHUZLWKDWDUJHWLVDOVRSODFHG7KHIXQQHOQHFNLV RULHQWHGWRZDUGVWKHFHQWHURIWKHWDUJHWSDSHU6SKHUHVDUHWKURZQLQWRWKHIXQQHOLQRUGHU WRKLWWKHFHQWHUSRLQW PDUNHGE\DFURVV RQWKHSDSHU 7KHDERYHV\VWHPLVIUDXJKWZLWKXQFHUWDLQWLHVERWKZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHWKURZLQSXWRIWKH VSKHUHDQGWRWKHTXDOLW\DQGVWDELOLW\RIWKHJDOORZVVHWXS,WLVDOVRVXEMHFWWRDGGLWLRQDO HIIHFWVIURPLWVLPPHGLDWHVXUURXQGLQJV2WKHUXQFHUWDLQWLHVH[LVWLQUHODWLRQWRWKHRULHQ WDWLRQRIWKHVKHHWRISDSHUDQGWKHFHQWHULQJRIWKHFURVV7KHVWDELOLW\RIWKHVXEVWUXFWXUH DQGZHDWKHULPSDFWFDQKDYHDGLUHFWHIIHFWRQWKHWDUJHWDFFXUDF\RIWKHV\VWHP VHH)LJ
+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU GHULYHG IURP Deming’s IXQQHO H[SHULPHQW KWWS ZZZGHQNHOHUTPGH$UWLNHO7ULFKWHUWULFK WHUKWPO$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU &I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU D S &I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU S II
,QWURGXFWLRQ
,QSXWXQFHUWDLQWLHV
0RGHOXQFHUWDLQWLHV 8QFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWR VXUURXQGLQJVHQYLURQPHQW HWF
7DUJHWGHILQLWLRQ XQFHUWDLQWLHV
)LJ
8QFHUWDLQWLHVRIWKHV\VWHP±)XQQHOH[SHULPHQW
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
+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU GHULYHG IURP Deming’s IXQQHO H[SHULPHQW KWWS ZZZGHQNHOHUTPGH$UWLNHO7ULFKWHUWULFK WHUKWPO$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU &I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU D S
3URGXFWLRQ6\VWHPDQG3URFHVVHV
,VRODWHG GHWHUPLQLVWLF YDOXHVGHOLYHURQO\ OLWWOHLQIRUPDWLRQRQ WKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVRI DV\VWHPRUPRGHO
)LJ
&RPSDULVRQRIH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVIRUV\VWHPVZLWKGLIIHUHQWXQFHUWDLQWLHV±6SUHDGVEXWQR GLVWRUWLRQ
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
&I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU D S
,QWURGXFWLRQ
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³SRRU´YHUVXVD³JRRG´VSHFLILFDWLRQ&RPSDUHGWRWKHIXQQHOH[SHULPHQW WKHOHIWDUHDVKRZVDZLGHUVSUHDGLQWHUPVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHDQGFRVWWKDQWKHDUHDRQ WKHULJKW1RGLVWRUWLRQLVIRXQGLQHLWKHUFDVH
)LJ
&RPSDULVRQRIH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVIRUV\VWHPVZLWKGLIIHUHQWXQFHUWDLQWLHV±,QIOXHQFHRIWKH VSHFLILFDWLRQTXDOLW\RQWKHVSUHDGRIFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHDQGFRVW±6SUHDGVEXWQRGLVWRUWLRQ
$Q\SODQRUIRUHFDVWVKRXOGDLPWRJHQHUDWHPRGHOVIRUFDOFXODWLRQVGHVLJQHGWRDFKLHYH QDUURZHUVSUHDGVZKLOHDYRLGLQJGLVWRUWLRQV,IWKHVSUHDGLVYHU\QDUURZLQWKHELGSKDVH WKLV XVXDOO\ LQGLFDWHV D YHU\ KLJK TXDOLW\ VWDQGDUG LQ WKH SURMHFW SUHSDUDWLRQ SKDVH WKDW WUDQVODWHGLQWRDJUHDWGHJUHHRIGHWDLOLQWKHSODQQLQJDQGVSHFLILFDWLRQGRFXPHQWV7KLVLV ZKDWZHVKRXOGDLPIRUEHFDXVHVXFKSURMHFWVWHQGWREHFRPSOHWHGPXFKPRUHVPRRWKO\ ZKLOHDOVRDGKHULQJWRGHILQHGSURMHFWWDUJHWV
&I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU S II
2EMHFWLYH
2EMHFWLYH
7KLV ERRN VHWV RXW WR RXWOLQH WKH IXQGDPHQWDOV RI PDQDJLQJ FKDQFHV DQG ULVNV ZKLOH PDNLQJDGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQURXJKHVWLPDWHVDQGGHWDLOHGDQDO\VHV7KHVLJQLILFDQFHDQG WKHSRWHQWLDORIPDQDJLQJFKDQFHVDQGULVNVDUHLQGLFDWHGIRUWKHLQGLYLGXDOSURMHFWSKDVHV ,QVRGRLQJZHKLJKOLJKWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQGHWHUPLQLVWLFDQGSUREDELOLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQ PHWKRGV DV ZHOO DV WKH IXQGDPHQWDOV RI DSSO\LQJ 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQV &DOFXODWLRQ DFFXUDF\ HVVHQWLDOO\ GHSHQGV RQ WKH PRGHOLQJ DSSURDFK WKH XQFHUWDLQWLHV RI LQSXW SDUDPHWHUVDQGWKHSURMHFWSKDVHXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQ 7KH SULPDU\ REMHFWLYH RI WKLV ERRN LV WR RXWOLQH DQG GLVFXVV D V\VWHPDWLF DSSURDFK WR GHDOLQJZLWKXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGWRLOOXVWUDWHWKH0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQPHWKRGRORJ\LQD FOHDUVWUXFWXUHGDQGSODXVLEOHPDQQHU3DUWLFXODUHPSKDVLVZLOOEHSXWRQH[SODLQLQJWKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIUHVXOWVWKHIDFWRUVLQIOXHQFLQJWKHVKDSHRIKLVWRJUDPVDQGWKHHIIHFWVRI FRUUHODWLRQV :H ZLOO DOVR SUHVHQW WKH ODWHVW ILQGLQJV JDWKHUHG IURP VXUYH\V FRQGXFWHG DPRQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQ H[SHUWV 5HDGHUV RI WKLV ERRN ZLOO EH DEOH WR FKHFN WKH YDOLGLW\ RI FROOHFWHGGDWDWKHPVHOYHVRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHWUDQVSDUHQWUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRINH\VWDWLVWLFDO SDUDPHWHUVDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGGHVFULSWLYHGDWDDQDO\VLV&RPSDULVRQVDUHPDGHWRGLVFXVV WKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHQHZDSSURDFKHVDVZHOODVWKHLUGHYLDWLRQVIURPWKRVHSUHVHQWHGLQ WKHOLWHUDWXUHRULPSOHPHQWHGLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSUDFWLFH 5HDOLVWLF FDOFXODWLRQ H[DPSOHV IURP ERWK WKH FOLHQW¶V DQG WKH FRQWUDFWRU¶V SHUVSHFWLYH LOOXVWUDWHWKHPRGHOLQJH[HUFLVHDQGWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWV7KHZRUNHG H[DPSOHVDUHEDVHGRQVSHFLILFLVVXHVHQFRXQWHUHGLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSUDFWLFH7KH\GHPRQ VWUDWH WKH ZLGH UDQJH LQ ZKLFK 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQV FDQ EH FDUULHG RXW LQ SURMHFW PDQDJHPHQW DV ZHOO DV LQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQW DQG HFRQRPLFV LQ GLIIHUHQW SURMHFW SKDVHV
6WUXFWXUH
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
,QWURGXFWLRQ
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¶VDQGFRQWUDFWRU¶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«@ ULVNV RI ORVVHV XQFHUWDLQW\ DQG UDQGRPQHVV IDFWRUV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQ\ HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW\$GLVWLQFWLRQLVPDGHEHWZHHQQDWXUDOULVNV HJVWRUPGDPDJH WHFKQLFDOULVNV HJ SURGXFWLRQ GHIHFWV VRFLDO ULVNV HJ VWDII WXUQRYHU SHUVRQDO ULVNV HJ LOOQHVV SROLWLFDO ULVNV HJ QDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ DQG VSHFLILF PDUNHW ULVNV VXFK DV DQ HFRQRPLF GRZQWXUQRULQGXVWU\FULVLV >«@´ Gigerenzer QRWHV WKDW WKH FRQFHSWV RI ULVN DQG XQFHUWDLQW\ DUH JHQHUDOO\ XVHG V\QRQ\ PRXVO\LQHYHU\GD\ODQJXDJHEXWKHDOVREHOLHYHVWKDWWKLQNLQJDQGORJLFDUHVXIILFLHQWIRU PDNLQJGHFLVLRQVLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIULVNVEHFDXVHWKHEHVWSRVVLEOHGHFLVLRQFDQEHFDOFX ODWHG7KXV LW LV DVVXPHG WKDW WKH FRQVHTXHQFHVDQG SUREDELOLWLHV DUH NQRZQ +RZHYHU WKHVHDUHXQNQRZQLQXQFHUWDLQVLWXDWLRQVZKHUHUXOHVRIWKXPEDQGLQWXLWLRQDUHUHTXLUHG IRU GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ Gigerenzer JRHV RQ WR VD\ WKDW JDPHV RI FKDQFH VXFK DV VORW PDFKLQHVRUORWWHULHVLQYROYHDULVNEHFDXVHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIZLQQLQJFDQEHFDOFXODWHG $FFRUGLQJ WR WKLV YLHZ WKH FRQFHSW RI XQFHUWDLQW\ LQFOXGHV GHDOLQJ ZLWK VWRFNV HDUWK TXDNHVKHDOWKRUWKHHFRQRP\LQJHQHUDO 5LVNH[SUHVVHGDVDQHTXDWLRQ 5LVNLVRIWHQGHILQHGE\WKHIROORZLQJVHHPLQJO\VLPSOHIRUPXOD 5LVN 3UREDELOLW\RIRFFXUUHQFH &RQVHTXHQFH
,IZHFRQVLGHUIRUH[DPSOHWKHSURGXFWLRQRIWHQH[SRVHGFRQFUHWHZDOOVIRUZKLFKRQH FDVHRIGDPDJHZDVGRFXPHQWHGWKHSUREDELOLW\RIRFFXUUHQFHZRXOGEH EDVHG RQ KLVWRULFDO GDWD 7KH GDPDJH LH WKH FRQVHTXHQFH LV HVWLPDWHG DW ¼$SSO\LQJ(T ZHWKXVREWDLQDULVNRI¼ ¼ 7KLVYDOXHFRXOGEHLQFOXGHGDVDPDUNXSLQWKHFRVWLQJH[HUFLVH+RZHYHULWVKRXOGEH QRWHGWKDWWKHUHDOGDPDJHPD\ZHOODPRXQWWRWKHIXOO¼7KHFDOFXODWHGULVNWKXV RQO\ UHIOHFWV WKH DYHUDJH H[SHFWHG YDOXH 7KH DFWXDO GDPDJH ZLOO OLH EHWZHHQ DQG ¼RUHYHQH[FHHGWKLVDPRXQWGHSHQGLQJRQWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHHVWLPDWHV YoeSURSRVHVWKDWWKLVHTXDWLRQEHWUHDWHGDVDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOIRUH[SORULQJWKHFRQFHSW RIULVNUDWKHUWKDQDVDIRUPXODWKDWDFWXDOO\PDNHVULVNVFDOFXODEOH:KDWPDWWHUVPRVWLV WKDW HLWKHU FRPSRQHQW RI WKH DERYH HTXDWLRQ PXVW EH SUHVHQW IRU DQ\ ULVN WR H[LVW$Q\ FRQVHTXHQFH QR PDWWHU KRZ VHYHUH ZLOO QRW UHSUHVHQW D ULVN LI WKHUH LV QR DVVRFLDWHG SUREDELOLW\RIRFFXUUHQFH Yoe GHVFULEHV ULVN DV D PHDVXUH RI WKH SUREDELOLW\ DQG FRQVHTXHQFH RI XQFHUWDLQ IXWXUH HYHQWV7KXVWKLVRSHQVXSWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIDQXQGHVLUDEOHUHVXOW+RZHYHUWKLV³UHVXOW´ FDQWDNHDYDULHW\RIIRUPVVXFKDVDORVV IRUH[DPSOHGXHWRILUHIORRGLOOQHVVGHDWKRU ILQDQFLDOVHWEDFNV RUDQ\IRUPRIKD]DUG EXWDOVRDSRWHQWLDOEHQHILWWKDWFRXOGQRWEH UHDOL]HGIRULQVWDQFHEHFDXVHDQHZSURGXFWIDLOHGWRFDSWXUHWKHDQWLFLSDWHGPDUNHWVKDUH RU DQ LQYHVWPHQW GHOLYHUHG OHVV WKDQ WKH H[SHFWHG UHWXUQ RU DQ\ RWKHU W\SH RI PLVVHG
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aplacean GHWHUPLQLVP >@ 7KLV SURFHVV LV >@ UHIHUUHG WR DV µSUREDELOLVWLF UHYROXWLRQ¶´ Voigt FRQVLGHUVSUREDELOLVWLFVWREHDVXEILHOGRIVWRFKDVWLFVRQWKHVDPHOHYHODVVWDWL VWLFVDQGFRPELQDWRULFV VHH)LJ
6WRFKDVWLFV 7KHRU\RIIUHTXHQF\DQGSUREDELOLW\
&RPELQDWRULFV
3UREDELOLVWLFV
6WDWLVWLFV
+RZPDQ\ SRVVLELOLWLHVH[LVWIRU DUUDQJLQJHOHPHQWVRU IRUH[WUDFWLQJ LQGLYLGXDO HOHPHQWV IURPDVHWRI HOHPHQWV"
'HILQLWLRQRIPRGHOV IRUGHVFULELQJUDQGRP HYHQWV
'HULYDWLRQRI SDWWHUQV DQGVWUXFWXUHVIURP HYHQWVDQGRU VDPSOHV
)RUHFDVWRIVXFK HYHQWV )LJ
'HILQLWLRQVRIWHUPV±6WRFKDVWLFVFRPELQDWRULFVSUREDELOLVWLFVDQGVWDWLVWLFV
,Q SUREDELOLVWLF V\VWHPV LW LV WKXV LPSRVVLEOH WR SUHGLFW D IXWXUH HYHQW ZLWK DEVROXWH FHUWDLQW\,QFRQWUDVWZHFDQRQO\FRPHXSZLWKWKHSUREDELOLW\RIDVSHFLILFHYHQWVXFKDV WKHFRVWRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV )URPDWHUPLQRORJLFDOSRLQWRIYLHZZHUHFRPPHQGWRGHVFULEHUDQGRPQDWXUDOHYHQWVRU SURFHVVHVDVVWRFKDVWLFDQGWKHPDWKHPDWLFDODQDO\VLVRIVXFKSURFHVVHVDQGWKHLUHIIHFWV DVSUREDELOLVWLF
&RPELQDWRULFV
&RPELQDWRULFVLVDOVRDVXEILHOGRIVWRFKDVWLFVLQZKLFKZHH[DPLQHDPRQJRWKHUWKLQJV WKHQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQWSRVVLEOHDUUDQJHPHQWVRIWKHHOHPHQWVRIDVHWRUWKHQXPEHURI SRVVLEOHQHZVHWVWKDWFDQEHIRUPHGXVLQJWKHHOHPHQWVRIDQLQLWLDOVHW
&I%URFNKDXV*PE+ F S WUDQVODWLRQE\6WHIIHQ:DOWHU &I+LVWRULVFKHV:|UWHUEXFKGHU3KLORVRSKLH±%DQG S WUDQVODWLRQE\6WHIIHQ:DOWHU &I9RLJW 6OLGH &ILELG6OLGH &IKWWS ZZZEXVLQHVVGLFWLRQDU\FRPGHILQLWLRQSUREDELOLVWLFKWPO$FFHVVHG1RYHPEHU &I%URFNKDXV*PE+ S
7HUPLQRORJ\LQ6WDWLVWLFVDQG3UREDELOLW\7KHRU\
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
5DQGRP9DULDEOH
$ UDQGRP YDULDEOH LV D YDULDEOH WKDW WDNHV D YDOXH GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI D UDQGRPHYHQW,IDYDULDEOHLVIXQFWLRQDOO\GHSHQGHQWRQDQRWKHUUDQGRPYDULDEOHLWLVDOVR DUDQGRPYDULDEOH ,QDSUREDELOLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQUDQGRPYDULDEOHVDUHDOOWKRVHSDUDPHWHUVWKDWDUHIUDXJKW ZLWK XQFHUWDLQWLHV DQG DUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH FDOFXODWLRQV RU VLPXODWLRQV DV GLVWULEXWLRQV UDWKHUWKDQLQGLYLGXDOQXPHULFDO GHWHUPLQLVWLF YDOXHV
'LVWULEXWLRQ
$ SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQLQGLFDWHVWKHSUREDELOLW\ZLWKZKLFKDUDQGRPYDULDEOHVXFKDV WKHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRIIRUPZRUNRSHUDWLRQVFDQWDNHFHUWDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHV $Q\GLVWULEXWLRQZLOOEHGHWHUPLQHGE\LWVGHQVLW\ 7KHGHQVLW\RIDGLVFUHWHUDQGRPYDULDEOHDVVLJQVWRHDFKYDOXHWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJSURED ELOLW\ZLWKZKLFKLWRFFXUV$GLVFUHWHGHQVLW\FDQEHUHSUHVHQWHGLQWDEXODUIRUPDVORQJDV WKHQXPEHURIXQGHUO\LQJYDOXHV LVQRWLQILQLWH7KHVXPRIWKHSUREDELOLWLHVPXVWHTXDO 7KH GHQVLW\ RI D FRQWLQXRXV UDQGRP YDULDEOH LV D FRQWLQXRXV IXQFWLRQ LQ HDFK RI LWV LQWHUYDOV LH WKH JUDSK RI WKLV IXQFWLRQ LV ³JDSOHVV´ ZLWKLQ HDFK LQWHUYDO &RQWLQXRXV GHQVLWLHV FDQQRW EH FDSWXUHG LQ WDEOHV EHFDXVH WKH XQGHUO\LQJ VHW KDV FRQWLQXXPPDQ\ HOHPHQWV7KHLQWHJUDORYHUWKHHQWLUHGLVWULEXWLRQ IURPWR PXVWUHVXOWLQ VHHWKH WKLUGD[LRPSUREDELOLW\DFFRUGLQJWRKolmogorov6HFWLRQ )LJLOOXVWUDWHVWKHGHQVLW\IXQFWLRQVRIDGLVFUHWHDQGDFRQWLQXRXVIXQFWLRQLQTXDOL WDWLYHWHUPV
&I%LHUPDQQ*URVVHU S $OVRUHIHUUHGWRDVGHQVLW\IXQFWLRQRUSUREDELOLW\IXQFWLRQ &I%LHUPDQQ*URVVHU S &RPELQLQJDOOHOHPHQWVRIDVHWDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDSRVLWLYHSUREDELOLW\UHODWLYHWRDVSHFLILFGLVWULEXWLRQUHVXOWVLQWKH XQGHUO\LQJVHWRIVDLGGLVWULEXWLRQ &I%LHUPDQQ*URVVHU SI
%DVLFV
'HQVLW\RID GLVFUHWHGLVWULEXWLRQ
'HQVLW\ RIDFRQWLQXRXVGLVWULEXWLRQ
S [L
I [
[L )LJ
[
'HQVLW\IXQFWLRQRIDGLVFUHWH OHIW DQGFRQWLQXRXVGLVWULEXWLRQ ULJKW ± 4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
'LVWULEXWLRQV FDQ DOVR EH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ VXP FXUYHV E\ DGGLQJ XS FXPXODWLQJ WKH IUHTXHQFLHVRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOYDOXHV VHH)LJ
ȈS [L
&XPXODWLYH SUREDELOLW\RIDGLVFUHWH GLVWULEXWLRQ
I [
&XPXODWLYHSUREDELOLW\RID FRQWLQXRXVGLVWULEXWLRQ
[L )LJ
[
&XPXODWLYHSUREDELOLW\IXQFWLRQRIDGLVFUHWH OHIW DQGDFRQWLQXRXVGLVWULEXWLRQ ULJKW ± 4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
6HFWLRQ LQFOXGHV D PRUH GHWDLOHG GLVFXVVLRQ RQ VHOHFWLQJ GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQV IRU DQVZHULQJTXHVWLRQVUHODWHGWRFRQVWUXFWLRQPDQDJHPHQWDQGHFRQRPLFVZLWKWKHDLGRI SUREDELOLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQPHWKRGV
'LVFUHWH'LVWULEXWLRQV
'LVFUHWHGLVWULEXWLRQVFDQEHXVHIXOO\DSSOLHGLIWKHSDUDPHWHUVFDQRQO\WDNHUHVXOWVZLWKLQ D VXEVHW RI QDWXUDO QXPEHUV ZKHQ DSSURSULDWHO\ FRGHG IRU DQ H[DPSOH VHH )LJ ULJKW 0RUHVSHFLILFDOO\WKHGDLO\ZRUNLQJWLPHFRXOGUDQJHIURPWRKRXUVDQGLW LVFRQFHLYDEOHWRVXEGLYLGHWKLVSHULRGLQWRKDOIKRXULQFUHPHQWV /LNHZLVHWKHQXPEHURIDYDLODEOHFUDQHVFRXOGDOVREHPRGHOHGE\DGLVFUHWHGLVWULEXWLRQ )RUH[DPSOHLWZRXOGEHSODXVLEOHWRDVVXPHWKHXVHRIWZRWKUHHRUIRXUFUDQHVRQD VLQJOHFRQVWUXFWLRQVLWH
&I'XOOHU S
7HUPLQRORJ\LQ6WDWLVWLFVDQG3UREDELOLW\7KHRU\
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
'HQVLW\RID%HUQRXOOLGLVWULEXWLRQ
'HQVLW\RIDGLVFUHWHGLVWULEXWLRQ
S [L
S [L
)LJ
[L
[L
'HQVLW\IXQFWLRQRID%HUQRXOOLGLVWULEXWLRQ OHIW DQGDJHQHUDOGLVFUHWHGLVWULEXWLRQ ULJKW ± 4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
&RQWLQXRXV'LVWULEXWLRQV
&RQWLQXRXV GLVWULEXWLRQV DUH XVHG LI DOO SRVVLEOH QXPHULFDO YDOXHV FDQ RFFXU ZLWKLQ D FHUWDLQUDQJH VSUHDG ³7KHUHDUHWKXVFRQWLQXXPPDQ\LQILQLWHSRVVLEOHUHDOL]DWLRQV´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
3RVVLEOHSUDFWLFDOH[DPSOH ,QWKHPDQDJHPHQWRIFKDQFHVDQGULVNVLWLVSRVVLEOHWRFUHDWHDSUREDELOLVWLFH[WHQVLRQWR WKH³SUDFWLWLRQHUPHWKRG´LQZKLFKWKHSUREDELOLW\RIRFFXUUHQFHLVPXOWLSOLHGE\WKHFRQVHTXHQFH &I'XOOHU S WUDQVODWLRQE\6WHIIHQ:DOWHU 5RKU SVXSSRUWVDVLPLODUYLHZZLWKUHVSHFWWRSURFHVVGXUDWLRQV &KDX D SLQFOXGHVDVLPLODUYLHZZLWKUHJDUGWRFRVWV
%DVLFV
2WKHUH[DPSOHVRI FORVHG FRQWLQXRXVGLVWULEXWLRQVLQFOXGHUHFWDQJXODUDQG3(57GLVWUL EXWLRQV VHH)LJ
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ
I [
I [
[ )LJ
[
'HQVLW\IXQFWLRQRIDUHFWDQJXODU OHIW DQGD3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ ULJKW ±4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUH VHQWDWLRQ
2SHQ&ORVHG'LVWULEXWLRQV
&ORVHG GLVWULEXWLRQV DUH WKRVH WKDW KDYH D GHILQHG ILQLWH PLQLPXP DQG D GHILQHG ILQLWH PD[LPXP7KHVHLQFOXGHIRUH[DPSOHUHFWDQJXODUWULDQJXODUDQG3(57GLVWULEXWLRQV ,Q WKH FDVH RIRSHQ GLVWULEXWLRQV ZH QHHG WR PDNH D GLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQ RQHVLGHG DQG WZRVLGHG RSHQ GLVWULEXWLRQV ,Q WZRVLGHG RSHQ GLVWULEXWLRQV WKHUH LV QHLWKHU D ILQLWH PLQLPXPQRUDILQLWHPD[LPXP,QWKLVFDVHERWKHQGVH[WHQGWRRU 2QHVLGHGRSHQGLVWULEXWLRQVLQFOXGHJDPPDORJORJLVWLF:HLEXOODQGH[SRQHQWLDOGLVWUL EXWLRQV ([DPSOHVRIWZRVLGHGRSHQGLVWULEXWLRQVDUHQRUPDO/DSODFHDQG6WXGHQWGLVWULEXWLRQV )LJLQFOXGHVDTXDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIDRQHVLGHGRSHQ OHIW DQGDWZRVLGHG RSHQGLVWULEXWLRQ ULJKW
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
/RJORJLVWLFGLVWULEXWLRQ I [
I [
λ
λ [
)LJ
[
λ
[
'HQVLW\IXQFWLRQRIDORJORJLVWLFGLVWULEXWLRQ OHIW DQGDQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ ULJKW ±4XDOL WDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
,QWZRVLGHGRSHQGLVWULEXWLRQVYHU\KLJKRUYHU\ORZYDOXHVKDYHDORZSUREDELOLW\RI RFFXUUHQFH )RU FDOFXODWLRQV LQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQW DQG HFRQRPLFV XVLQJ VXFK GLVWULEXWLRQVDVLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVLVRIWHQLQDSSURSULDWHEHFDXVHZHFDQXVXDOO\VSHFLI\D FORVHG UDQJH IRU WKH LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV /LNHZLVH HQWHULQJ QHJDWLYH YDOXHV ZLOO QRW EH SHUPLVVLEOHLQPRVWFDVHV
7HUPLQRORJ\LQ6WDWLVWLFVDQG3UREDELOLW\7KHRU\
8QLPRGDO0XOWLPRGDO'LVWULEXWLRQV
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
'LVFUHWHXQLPRGDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
'LVFUHWHPXOWLPRGDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
S [L
S [L
[L
[L
&RQWLQXRXVXQLPRGDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
&RQWLQXRXVPXOWLPRGDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
I [
I [
[ )LJ
[
'HQVLW\IXQFWLRQRIGLVFUHWH WRS DQGFRQWLQXRXV ERWWRP XQLPRGDO OHIW DQGPXOWLPRGDO ULJKW GLVWULEXWLRQV±4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
6NHZHG6\PPHWULFDO'LVWULEXWLRQV
'LVWULEXWLRQ FXUYHV FDQ EH IXUWKHU GLYLGHG LQWR V\PPHWULFDO DQG VNHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQV 6\PPHWULFDOGLVWULEXWLRQVKDYHDYHUWLFDOPLUURUD[LV VHHIRULQVWDQFHWKHQRUPDOGLVWUL EXWLRQ LQ )LJ 6NHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQV H[KLELW DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ HLWKHU QHDU WKH PLQLPXP ULJKWVNHZHG RU SRVLWLYHO\ VNHZHG RU QHDU WKH PD[LPXP OHIWVNHZHG RU QHJDWLYHO\VNHZHG VHH)LJ
&I.XPPHU E SII
%DVLFV
)RUULJKWVNHZHG SRVLWLYHO\VNHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQVZHFDQDVVXPHWKDW PRGDOYDOXH PHGLDQ PHDQ )RUOHIWVNHZHG QHJDWLYHO\VNHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQVZHFDQDVVXPHWKDW PHDQ PHGLDQ PRGDOYDOXH VHH)LJ 5LJKWVNHZHG SRVLWLYHO\ VNHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQ I [
/HIWVNHZHG QHJDWLYHO\VNHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQ I [
[
)LJ
[
'HQVLW\IXQFWLRQRIDULJKWVNHZHG SRVLWLYHO\VNHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQ OHIW DQGDOHIWVNHZHG QHJDWLYHO\VNHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQ ULJKW ±4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
+LVWRJUDP
*DWKHULQJDFRQWLQXRXVFKDUDFWHULVWLFXVXDOO\UHTXLUHVGLVFUHWL]DWLRQRIWKLVFKDUDFWHULVWLF ZKLFK LV DFKLHYHG E\ IRUPLQJ FODVVHV 5HSUHVHQWLQJ WKH IUHTXHQFLHV RI FODVVHV RQ WKH RUGLQDWH E\DUHDVRYHUWKHFODVVHV DEVFLVVD LVUHIHUUHGWRDVDKLVWRJUDP VHH)LJ ,IWKHFODVVZLGWKLVQRQHTXLGLVWDQWWKHKHLJKWRIWKHUHFWDQJOHVZLOOQRWSHUPLWFRQFOX VLRQVUHJDUGLQJWKHIUHTXHQF\RIWKHLQGLYLGXDOYDOXHV,QWKLVFDVHIUHTXHQF\LVH[SUHVVHG RQO\E\WKHDUHD FODVVZLGWKWLPHVEDUKHLJKW
)UHTXHQF\
7KH VXP RI WKH EDU DUHDV LV QRUPDOL]HG WR VHH DOVR WKH WKLUG D[LRP SUREDELOLW\ DFFRUGLQJWRKolmogorov6HFWLRQ
)LJ
+LVWRJUDP±4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
$UHD QRUPDOL]HG
7HUPLQRORJ\LQ6WDWLVWLFVDQG3UREDELOLW\7KHRU\
/RFDWLRQ3DUDPHWHUV
,QGHVFULSWLYHVWDWLVWLFVORFDWLRQSDUDPHWHUVDUHXVHGIRUGHVFULELQJWKHFHQWUDOSRVLWLRQRU WKH FHQWHU RI D GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KHVH SDUDPHWHUV FRQGHQVH WKH HOHPHQWV RI WKH VDPSOH RU SRSXODWLRQWRDVLQJOHQXPEHU7KHPRVWVLJQLILFDQWRIWKHVHYDOXHVDUHWKHPHDQPRGH DQGPHGLDQ
0HDQ9DOXH
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uber7KLVDSSURDFKDVVLJQVOHVV ZHLJKW WR RXWOLHUV DQG H[WUHPHV LQFOXGHG LQ WKH PHDQ VHH 6HFWLRQ ZKLFK LQFUHDVHVWKHUREXVWQHVVRIWKHORFDWLRQSDUDPHWHU
0RGDO9DOXH
7KHPRGDOYDOXHLVDOVRNQRZQDV 0RGH 0RVWIUHTXHQWYDOXH $QWLFLSDWHGYDOXH ([SHUWYDOXH 0RVWOLNHO\YDOXH 0RVWSUREDEOHYDOXH 3ODQQHGYDOXH ³7KH>@PRGDOYDOXH>@LVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHZLWKWKHKLJKHVW DEVROXWHRUUHODWLYH IUHTXHQF\ )RU GDWD JURXSHG LQWR FODVVHV WKH PRGDO FODVV LV WKH FODVV ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW SRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\´ 7KHPRGHWKXVUHSUHVHQWVWKHPD[LPXPRIWKHGHQVLW\IXQFWLRQ
0HGLDQ
7KHPHGLDQRUFHQWUDOYDOXHGHVFULEHVWKHYDOXHRIDGLVWULEXWLRQIRUZKLFKRIWKH YDOXHVDUHVPDOOHUDQGRIWKHYDOXHVDUHJUHDWHUWKDQLW7KHPHGLDQWKXVGLYLGHVWKH GLVWULEXWLRQ LQWR WZR HTXDOO\ ODUJH DUHDV ,Q V\PPHWULFDO GLVWULEXWLRQV WKH PHGLDQ LV LGHQWLFDO WR WKH DULWKPHWLF PHDQ &RPSDUHG WR WKH DULWKPHWLF PHDQ WKH PHGLDQ LV PRUH UREXVWDJDLQVWRXWOLHUVVLQFHWKH\GRQRWLQIOXHQFHWKHKHLJKWRIWKHPHGLDQDVPXFKDVWKH DULWKPHWLFPHDQGRHV
&IKWWS GHVWDWLVWDFRPVWDWLVWLNOH[LNRQGHILQLWLRQODJHSDUDPHWHU$FFHVVHG1RYHPEHU &I2HSHQ S &I6DFKV S WUDQVODWLRQE\6WHIIHQ:DOWHU
%DVLFV
([SHFWHG9DOXH
7KHH[SHFWHGYDOXH( ; RUμ FDQEHLQWHUSUHWHGDVWKHQXPEHUWKDWWKHUDQGRPYDULDEOH WDNHVRQDYHUDJH,IWKHPHDQYDOXHLVGHULYHGIURPWKHUHVXOWVRIDWHVWLWZLOOFRQYHUJH DJDLQVWWKHH[SHFWHGYDOXH7KHH[SHFWHGYDOXHUHSUHVHQWVDYDULDEOHWKDWFDQEHH[SHFWHG LIDODUJHQXPEHURIWHVWVRUH[SHULPHQWVLVFRQGXFWHG )RUDQLQILQLWHQXPEHURIUHSHWLWLRQVRIDUDQGRPH[SHULPHQWWKHDULWKPHWLFPHDQRIWKH UHVXOWVLVHTXLYDOHQWWRWKHH[SHFWHGYDOXHRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQ,QRWKHUZRUGVWKHVDPSOH PHDQRIDUDQGRPYDULDEOHDSSURDFKHVWKHH[SHFWHGYDOXHZLWKLQFUHDVLQJVDPSOHVL]H LQ DFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHODZRIODUJHQXPEHUV ³7KHHVWLPDWRUIXQFWLRQIRUWKHH[SHFWHGYDOXHLVWKHDULWKPHWLFPHDQ´ 6XPPDU\RIWKHPRVWVLJQLILFDQWORFDWLRQSDUDPHWHUV 7KHILJXUHVKRZQEHORZLQFOXGHVDTXDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHORFDWLRQSDUDPHWHUV LHPHDQPRGHDQGPHGLDQ IRUVNHZHGGLVWULEXWLRQV)RUULJKWVNHZHGXQLPRGDOGLVWUL EXWLRQV VHH )LJ OHIW WKH PRGH DVVXPHV D VPDOOHU QXPHULFDO YDOXH ZKHUHDV WKH PHDQ DVVXPHV D ODUJHU QXPHULFDO YDOXH FRPSDUHG WR WKH PHGLDQ RQ WKH DEVFLVVD 7KLV UHODWLRQVKLSLVLQYHUVHIRUOHIWVNHZHGGLVWULEXWLRQV VHH)LJULJKW
I [
0RGH
0HGLDQ
I [
0HGLDQ
[
)LJ
0RGH
0HDQ
0HDQ
[
/RFDWLRQSDUDPHWHUVIRUVNHZHGGLVWULEXWLRQV±4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
Huber’s 0HVWLPDWRU
Huber’s 0HVWLPDWRU LV D UREXVW ORFDWLRQ SDUDPHWHU OHVV VXVFHSWLEOH WR GLVWRUWLRQ E\ RXWOLHUV RU H[WUHPHV WKDQ IRU LQVWDQFH WKH DULWKPHWLF PHDQ :KHQ IRUPLQJ WKH 0HVWLPDWRU DSSO\LQJ Huber’s PHWKRG WKH FROOHFWHG YDOXHV DUH ZHLJKWHG GLIIHUHQWO\ DFFRUGLQJWRDIXQFWLRQ VHH)LJ
&I%DUWVFK S &I6XKO0HOORXOL S WUDQVODWLRQE\6WHIIHQ:DOWHU &I+RIVWDGOHU SII
7HUPLQRORJ\LQ6WDWLVWLFVDQG3UREDELOLW\7KHRU\
+XEHU N
)LJ
Huber’s 0HVWLPDWRU±4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
7KXVRXWOLHUVDQGH[WUHPHVZLWKORZZHLJKWDUHLQFOXGHGLQWKHDYHUDJLQJVWHSDQGGRQRW QHHG WR EH HOLPLQDWHG$ WXQLQJ FRQVWDQW N LV DSSOLHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH UDQJH LQ ZKLFK YDOXHVDUHIXOO\LQFOXGHGLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQ LHZLWKDZHLJKWLQJRI 7DEOHSURYLGHV DQRYHUYLHZRIFRPPRQO\DSSOLHGNYDOXHVIRUHuber’s 0HVWLPDWRUPHWKRG7KHVSHFLILF NYDOXHFKRVHQIRUWKHGDWDDQDO\VLVGHSHQGVRQWKHQXPEHUGLVWDQFHDQGW\SHRIGLVWUL EXWLRQRIWKHRXWOLHUVDQGH[WUHPHVDVZHOODVRQWHFKQLFDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV +XEHU¶V0HVWLPDWRUV 7XQLQJFRQVWDQWN )XOO\ZHLJKWHGUDQJHIRUDYHUDJLQJ 7DEOH
+ a
+ a
+ a
+ a
7XQLQJFRQVWDQWNIRUHuber’s0HVWLPDWRUV ³Huber 3URSRVDO´
9DULDQFH
9DULDQFH LV D PHDVXUH RI VFDWWHULQJ RU VSUHDG GHVFULELQJ WKH GHYLDWLRQ RI D UDQGRP YDULDEOHIURPLWVH[SHFWHGYDOXH)RUGLVFUHWHUDQGRPYDULDEOHVLWLVGHVFULEHGDVIROORZV Q
9DU ;
¦L ( [ L ± μ )
⋅ SL
)RUFRQWLQXRXVUDQGRPYDULDEOHVWKHYDULDQFHLVFDOFXODWHGDFFRUGLQJWR(T ∞
9DU ;
&I+RIVWDGOHU S &ILELGSII &ILELGS
³± ∞ ( [ ± μ )
⋅ I [ ⋅ G[
%DVLFV
)LJSURYLGHVDTXDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHGLIIHUHQFHRIWKHVSUHDGGHSHQGLQJRQ DODUJHURUVPDOOHUYDULDQFHIRUWZRFRQWLQXRXVV\PPHWULFDOGLVWULEXWLRQVZLWKWKHVDPH H[SHFWHGYDOXH7KHIODWWHUGLVWULEXWLRQH[KLELWVDJUHDWHUVSUHDGRISRVVLEOHFKDUDFWHULVWLF YDOXHVDQGWKXVDOVRDKLJKHUYDULDQFH
f(x)
μ )LJ
x
&RPSDULVRQRIGLIIHUHQWVSUHDGVIRUDQLGHQWLFDOPHDQ±4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
6WDQGDUG'HYLDWLRQ
,I ZH FDOFXODWH WKH VTXDUH URRW RI WKH YDULDQFH ZH REWDLQ WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ DV DQ DGGLWLRQDOPHDVXUHRIVFDWWHULQJRUVSUHDG σ
9DU ;
5HJDUGOHVV RI WKH QXPHULFDO YDOXH RI WKH PHDQ DQG WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ D FHUWDLQ SRUWLRQ RI WKH WRWDO DUHD ZLOO DOZD\V OLH LQ V\PPHWULFDO LQWHUYDOV D PXOWLSOH RI WKH VWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQDURXQGWKHPHDQLQWKHQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ VHH)LJ RIWKHYDOXHVOLHLQWKHLQWHUYDO σDURXQGWKHPHDQ RIWKHYDOXHVOLHLQWKHLQWHUYDO σDURXQGWKHPHDQ RIWKHYDOXHVOLHLQWKHLQWHUYDO σDURXQGWKHPHDQ )RU WKH QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ WKH FHQWUDO RI WKH YDOXHV DUH OLPLWHG E\ WKH IROG VWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQLQWKHSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHGLUHFWLRQIURPWKHPHDQ$FFRUGLQJO\IRU WKHQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQWKHFHQWUDO RIWKHYDOXHVDUHOLPLWHGE\WKHIROGVWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ LQ WKH SRVLWLYH DQG QHJDWLYH GLUHFWLRQ IURP WKH PHDQ ,W VKRXOG EH QRWHG KRZHYHUWKDWWKHVHDVVXPSWLRQVRQO\DSSO\WRQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQVEXWQRWWRRWKHUGLVWUL EXWLRQFDWHJRULHV
7HUPLQRORJ\LQ6WDWLVWLFVDQG3UREDELOLW\7KHRU\
ļı ļı ļ ı
ı
ı ȝ
ļ ı ļ ı ıȝ
)LJ
ıȝ
ıȝ
ıȝ
ıȝ
ıȝ
ıȝ
4XDQWLOHYDOXHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ±1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
4XDQWLOH9DOXHVDQG5DQJHV
$STXDQWLOHDOVRUHIHUUHGWRDVDIUDFWLOHUHSUHVHQWVWKDW[YDOXHRIDGLVWULEXWLRQEHORZ ZKLFKWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJSHUFHQWDJHSRIYDOXHVLVORFDWHG VHH)LJ
I [ $UHD S
$UHD S
4S )LJ
[
4XDQWLOHYDOXH4SRIDFRQWLQXRXVGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ
4XDUWLOHV TXDUWHUYDOXHV DUHVSHFLDOTXDQWLOHYDOXHVLQZKLFKWKHGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQLV GLYLGHGLQWRIRXUHTXDOUDQJHV LHHDFK 7KXVRIWKHYDOXHVDUHORFDWHGXQGHU WKH ILUVW TXDUWLOH RI WKH YDOXHV DUH ORFDWHG XQGHU WKH VHFRQG DOVR UHIHUUHG WR DV PHGLDQ DQGVRRQ 2WKHUVSHFLDOTXDQWLOHYDOXHVLQFOXGHTXLQWLOHV ILIWKYDOXHV GHFLOHV WHQWKV DQGSHUFHQ WLOHV KXQGUHGWKV 7KHVSUHDGRUUDQJHRIDGLVWULEXWLRQUHVXOWVIURPWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHKLJKHVWDQG WKHORZHVWYDOXH:HFDQWKXVVSHFLI\DVSDQRQO\IRUWZRVLGHGFORVHGGLVWULEXWLRQV
%HVLGHV4SWKH;SV\PEROLVDOVRXVHG
%DVLFV
$ TXDQWLOH UDQJH LV GHILQHG LQGLYLGXDOO\ DQG UHSUHVHQWV WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH TXDQWLOHV4SDQG4S 7KH TXDUWLOH UDQJHLVDVSHFLDO TXDQWLOH UDQJHDQG UHSUHVHQWV WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH TXDUWLOHDQGWKHTXDUWLOH,WLVDPRUHVWDEOHLQGLFDWRURIWKHGLVSHUVLRQRUVSUHDG RIDGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQWKDQLWVVSDQ7KHTXDUWLOHUDQJHLVDOVRFDOOHGLQWHUTXDUWLOHUDQJH ,45 DQGGHILQHVWKHDUHDRIWKHER[LQER[SORWGLDJUDPV,WVHSDUDWHVDTXDUWHURIWKH YDOXHVRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQERWKWRZDUGVWKHWRSDQGWRZDUGVWKHERWWRP
&HQWUDO/LPLW7KHRUHP
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³JHQXLQHO\´ QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ WKH VHQVH RI D WZRVLGHG RSHQ GLVWULEXWLRQ FDQ UHVXOWIURPWKHDGGLWLRQRIVHYHUDOUDQGRPYDULDEOHVLIWKHDGGHQGVFRQVLVWRQO\RIOLPLWHG FORVHG GLVWULEXWLRQV7KHVDPHDSSOLHVWRWKHORJQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ DVWKHSURGXFWRI VHYHUDOUDQGRPYDULDEOHV,IWKHLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVDUHGHILQHGE\FORVHGGLVWULEXWLRQVWKH VXP DQG SURGXFW RI WKHVH ZLOO DOVR KDYH ILQLWH YDOXHV UHJDUGOHVV RI WKH QXPEHU RI YDULDEOHV
&RUUHODWLRQDQG&RUUHODWLRQ&RHIILFLHQWV
$FRUUHODWLRQ LQWHUUHODWHGQHVV LVDRQHGLPHQVLRQDO VWDQGDUGL]HG PHDVXUHRIWKHOLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WZR FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 9DULRXV W\SHV RI ELYDULDWH FRUUHODWLRQV DUH XVHGGHSHQGLQJRQWKHVFDOLQJRIVXFKFKDUDFWHULVWLFV VHH7DEOH
&I6DFKV S &I/HGHUHU SI /RJQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ ORJDULWKPLFQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ %LYDULDWHGLVWULEXWLRQVDUHWZRGLPHQVLRQDOUDQGRPYDULDEOHVIRUZKLFKERWKWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLF[DQGWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLF \FDQEHUHSUHVHQWHGE\DGLVWULEXWLRQ 7\SHVRIVFDOHLQFOXGH QRPLQDO YDULDEOHVZLWKRXWDQDWXUDORUGHUVXFKDVSODFHVRIELUWKIRUH[DPSOH³2[IRUG%LUPLQJKDP/RQGRQ´ RUGLQDO YDULDEOHVIRUZKLFKDQDWXUDORUGHUH[LVWVZKHUHWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHLQGLYLGXDOYDULDEOHVFDQQRWEH TXDQWLILHGVXFKDVKLJKPHGLXPDQGORZ LQWHUYDO YDULDEOHVDUHUHSUHVHQWHGE\QXPHULFDOYDOXHVZKHUHUDQNLQJGLIIHUHQFHVDQGLQWHUYDOVEHWZHHQYDOXHVDUH FDOFXODEOHRUPHDVXUDEOH WKHUHLVQR³WUXH]HUR´YDOXHVXFKDVLQWHPSHUDWXUHVFDOHV UDWLR WKLVW\SHRIVFDOHFDQDFFRPPRGDWHDQDEVROXWH]HURYDOXHZKLOHDOORZLQJIRUFRQFOXVLRQVUHJDUGLQJSURSRUWL RQVVXFKDVLQVFDOHVRISK\VLFDOSDUDPHWHUV GLFKRWRPRXV YDULDEOHVFDQWDNHRQO\WZRGLIIHUHQWVWDWHVVXFKDV³WUXH´RU³IDOVH´
7HUPLQRORJ\LQ6WDWLVWLFVDQG3UREDELOLW\7KHRU\
7DEOH
PHWULF
RUGLQDO
5DQNFRUUHODWLRQ
5DQNFRUUHODWLRQ
PHWULF
&KDUDFWHULVWLF\
&KDUDFWHULVWLF[ RUGLQDO
5DQNFRUUHODWLRQ
3URGXFWPRPHQW FRUUHODWLRQ
%LYDULDWHW\SHVRIFRUUHODWLRQ
2WKHUW\SHVRIFRUUHODWLRQLQFOXGH 3RLQWELVHULDOFRUUHODWLRQ GLFKRWRPRXVDQGLQWHUYDOVFDOHGFKDUDFWHULVWLF Ɏ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lW6LHJHQ0DUNWIRUVFKXQJ6RPPHUVHPHVWHU
$YDLODEOHRQOLQHDWKWWS VOLGHSOD\HUGHVOLGH $FFHVVHG2FWREHU ,QWKLVFDVHDFROOHFWHGGDWDEDVHFRXOGJLYHULVHWRDFRUUHODWLRQEXWWKLVZRXOGQRWSURYLGHDQ\HYLGHQFHRIDFDXVDO
UHODWLRQVKLS &I6FKXO] S
&ILELG
%DVLFV
7KHIROORZLQJFDXVDOUHODWLRQVKLSVDUHSRVVLEOH [FDXVHV\ \FDXVHV[ [DQG\DUHLQIOXHQFHGE\RQHRUPRUHRWKHUYDULDEOHV IDOVHFRUUHODWLRQRUSDUWLDOFRUUH ODWLRQ
3URGXFW0RPHQW&RUUHODWLRQ
7KHSURGXFWPRPHQWFRUUHODWLRQ DOVRNQRZQDVPearsonRUBravais-PearsonFRUUHODWLRQ LQGLFDWHVWKHVWDQGDUGL]HGUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWZRLQWHUYDOVFDOHGFKDUDFWHULVWLFV7KLVLV WKHFRYDULDQFHRIWZRFKDUDFWHULVWLFVV[\GLYLGHGE\WKHSURGXFWRIWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQV VHH (T 7KLV VWHS VWDQGDUGL]HV WKH FRYDULDQFH DQG PDNHV WKH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIIL FLHQWVFRPSDUDEOH Q U [\
( [L ± [ ) ⋅ ( \L ± \ ) L
¦
V [\ V[ ⋅ V\
Q
¦L ( [ L ±
[ )
⋅
Q
¦L ( \ L ±
\ )
7KHFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWFDQRQO\WDNHYDOXHVEHWZHHQDQGDQGUHIOHFWVWKHSRZHU RIWKHOLQHDUUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWZRYDULDEOHV $SHUIHFWQHJDWLYHFRUUHODWLRQH[LVWVLIWKHFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWHTXDOV$OOPHDVXULQJ SRLQWVOLHRQDVWUDLJKWOLQHZLWKDQHJDWLYHJUDGLHQW $SHUIHFWSRVLWLYHFRUUHODWLRQH[LVWVLIWKHFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWHTXDOV,QWKLVFDVHDOO PHDVXULQJSRLQWVOLHRQDVWUDLJKWOLQHZLWKDSRVLWLYHJUDGLHQW 1R OLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLS H[LVWV LI WKH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW LV ]HUR ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV WKH YDULDEOHVDUHXQFRUUHODWHG+RZHYHUWKLVGRHVQRWH[FOXGHSRWHQWLDOO\H[LVWLQJQRQOLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLSVVXFKDVD8VKDSHGFRUUHODWLRQ
\
\
\
[
\
[
U
[
U
U \
[ U Į
)LJ
[ U Į
[ U
[ U
\
\ \
\
\ [ U Į
[ U Į
[ U Į
5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWZRYDULDEOHV[DQG\ZLWKGLIIHUHQWFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWV±7RS 3RLQWFORXGV±%RWWRP 9HFWRUGLDJUDPV
&I8QLYHUVLWlW6LHJHQ0DUNWIRUVFKXQJ6RPPHUVHPHVWHU $YDLODEOHRQOLQHDWKWWS VOLGHSOD\HUGHVOLGH $FFHVVHG2FWREHU
7HUPLQRORJ\LQ6WDWLVWLFVDQG3UREDELOLW\7KHRU\
)LJ SURYLGHV D JUDSKLFDO RYHUYLHZ RI WKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV 7KH XSSHU VHULHV RI WKLV GLDJUDP YLVXDOL]HV WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV DV SRLQW FORXGV ZKLOH LWV ORZHUFRXQWHUSDUWVKRZVYHFWRUSDLUVUHSUHVHQWLQJWZRYDULDEOHV [DQG\ )RUWKHUHSUH VHQWDWLRQDVDYHFWRUSDLUWKHFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWUFDQEHWUDQVIRUPHGLQWRWKHFRVLQHRI Į VHH(T U
FRV α
7KHSURGXFWPRPHQWFRUUHODWLRQLVLGHQWLFDOWRWKHUDQNFRUUHODWLRQSURYLGHGWKDWLQWHUYDO VFDOHGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDUHFRQVLGHUHG 7KH#5LVNVRIWZDUHSURYLGHVRSWLRQVIRUHQWHULQJSURGXFWPRPHQWFRUUHODWLRQVDVFRUUH ODWLRQPDWULFHVDQGWKXVFRQVLGHULQJWKHPLQWKHVLPXODWLRQV
5DQN&RUUHODWLRQ
7KH UDQN FRUUHODWLRQ LV DOVR UHIHUUHG WR DV WKH Spearman FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW DQG LV DSSOLHGLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIHLWKHUWZRFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDQRUGLQDOVFDOHRURQHFKDUDFWH ULVWLFRIDQLQWHUYDOVFDOHDQGRQHFKDUDFWHULVWLFRIDQRUGLQDOVFDOH VHH7DEOH 5DQNV DUHDVVLJQHGWRWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVDQGWKHLUGLIIHUHQFHGLLVFDOFXODWHG7KHQXPEHU RISRVVLEOHUDQNSRVLWLRQVQFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHQXPEHURIH[LVWLQJSDLUVRIPHDVXUHPHQW GDWD:HFDOFXODWHWKHUDQNFRUUHODWLRQXVLQJ(T Q
UV
⋅ GL L ± Q ⋅ (Q ± )
¦
+LVWRULFDO'DWD
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
$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU &I KWWS ZZZIDHVGH%DVLV%DVLV/H[LNRQ%DVLV/H[LNRQ0XOWLYDULDWH%DVLV/H[LNRQ)DNWRUHQDQDO\VHEDVLVOH[L NRQIDNWRUHQDQDO\VHKWPO$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU &I6FKXO] SII &IHJ.UHPSO S
%DVLFV
)LWWLQJ
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³WUXH´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
6XPPDU\
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
5HIHUHQFHV
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
5HIHUHQFHV
%DUWVFK+DQV-RFKHQ 7DVFKHQEXFK0DWKHPDWLVFKHU)RUPHOQ±WKHG0XQLFK 9LHQQD)DFKEXFKYHUODJ/HLS]LJ±&DUO+DQVHU9HUODJ ,6%1 %LHUPDQQ %HUQG *URVVHU .DULQ 7DVFKHQOH[LNRQ )LQDQ]PDWKHPDWLN6WDWLVWLN (G (OOHU5RODQG6WXWWJDUW6FKlIIHU3RHVFKHO9HUODJ ,6%1 %OHFNHQ 8GR 'LH 3URGXNWLRQV XQG .RVWHQWKHRULH LP LQVWDWLRQlUHQ %DXEHWULHE ,Q 'HU%DXEHWULHEVEHUDWHU+HIW :LHVEDGHQ%HUOLQ%DX9HUODJ %RHFNHOPDQQ /XNDV 0LOGQHU 6WRUP\$QQLND 8QVLFKHUKHLW 8QJHZLVVKHLW 5LVLNR±'LHDNWXHOOHZLVVHQVFKDIWOLFKH'LVNXVVLRQEHUGLH%HVWLPPXQJYRQ5LVLNHQ ,Q 6:3=HLWVFKULIWHQVFKDX 6WLIWXQJ:LVVHQVFKDIW XQG 3ROLWLN ± 'HXWVFKHV ,QVWLWXW IU ,QWHUQDWLRQDOH 3ROLWLN XQG 6LFKHUKHLW %HUOLQ 6WLIWXQJ :LVVHQVFKDIW XQG 3ROLWLN 6HSWHPEHU ,661 $YDLODEOHRQOLQHDW KWWS ZZZVZSEHUOLQRUJILOHDGPLQFRQWHQWVSURGXFWV]HLWVFKULIWHQ VFKDX]VBENPBPGQBNVSGI$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU %52&.+$86 *PE+ %URFNKDXV LQ IQI]HKQ %lQGHQ ± %DQG ± ,V.RQ /HLS]LJ0DQQKHLP)$%URFNKDXV*PE+ %52&.+$86 *PE+ E %URFNKDXV LQ IQI]HKQ %lQGHQ ± %DQG ± &KO(LU /HLS]LJ0DQQKHLP)$%URFNKDXV*PE+ %52&.+$86 *PE+ F %URFNKDXV LQ IQI]HKQ %lQGHQ ± %DQG ± 3IH5RJ /HLS]LJ0DQQKHLP)$%URFNKDXV*PE+ %XVLQHVV'LFWLRQDU\FRP:HE)LQDQFH,QF KWWS ZZZEXVLQHVVGLFWLRQDU\FRPGHILQLWLRQSUREDELOLVWLFKWPO $FFHVVHG 1RYHPEHU ýDGHå ,YDQ 5LVLNRZHUWDQDO\VH DOV (QWVFKHLGXQJVKLOIH ]XU :DKO GHV RSWLPDOHQ %DXYHUWUDJV )RUWVFKULWW%HULFKWH 9', 5HLKH ± %DXLQJHQLHXUZHVHQ 1U 'VVHOGRUI9',9HUODJ ,6%1 &KDX .ZRQJ :LQJ D 7KH YDOLGLW\ RI WKH WULDQJXODU GLVWULEXWLRQ DVVXPSWLRQ LQ 0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQRIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV HPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHIURP+RQJ.RQJ,Q &RQVWUXFWLRQ0DQDJHPHQWDQG(FRQRPLFV9ROXPH,VVXH /RQGRQ 7D\ORU )UDQFLV*URXS ,661
%DVLFV
&]DGR &ODXGLD 6FKPLGW7KRUVWHQ 0DWKHPDWLVFKH 6WDWLVWLN ± 6WDWLVWLN XQG LKUH $QZHQGXQJHQ (GV 'HWWH +ROJHU +lUGOH :ROIJDQJ %HUOLQ +HLGHOEHUJ 6SULQJHU 9HUODJ ,6%1 'XOOHU&KULVWLQH (LQIKUXQJLQGLH6WDWLVWLNPLW(;&(/XQG6366WKHG%HUOLQ 6SULQJHU*DEOHU ,6%1 )DHVGH KWWS ZZZIDHVGH%DVLV%DVLV6WDWLVWLN%DVLV6WDWLVWLN.RUUHODWLRQ5HEDVLVVWDWLVWLN NRUUHODWLRQUHKWPO$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU )DHVGH KWWS ZZZIDHVGH%DVLV%DVLV/H[LNRQ%DVLV/H[LNRQ0XOWLYDULDWH%DVLV/H[LNRQ )DNWRUHQDQDO\VHEDVLVOH[LNRQIDNWRUHQDQDO\VHKWPO$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU *LJHUHQ]HU*HUG 5LVLNR±:LHPDQGLHULFKWLJHQ(QWVFKHLGXQJHQWULIIW±UGHG 0XQLFK&%HUWHOVPDQQ9HUODJ ,6%1 *LUPVFKHLG *HUKDUG 0RW]NR &KULVWRSK .DONXODWLRQ 3UHLVELOGXQJ XQG &RQWUROOLQJ LQ GHU %DXZLUWVFKDIW ± 3URGXNWLRQVSUR]HVVRULHQWLHUWH .RVWHQEHUHFKQXQJ XQG.RVWHQVWHXHUXQJ±QGHG%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +HQ]H1RUEHUW 6WRFKDVWLNIU(LQVWHLJHU±(LQH(LQIKUXQJLQGLHIDV]LQLHUHQGH :HOW GHV =XIDOOV ± WK HG :LHVEDGHQ 9LHZHJ7HXEQHU 9HUODJ ,6%1 +LVWRULVFKHV :|UWHUEXFK GHU 3KLORVRSKLH ± %DQG ') (G 5LWWHU -RDFKLP %DVHO6WXWWJDUW6FKZDEH &R9HUODJ ,6%1 ; +LVWRULVFKHV :|UWHUEXFK GHU 3KLORVRSKLH ± %DQG 34 (GV 5LWWHU -RDFKLP *UQGHU.DUOIULHG%DVHO6WXWWJDUW6FKZDEH &R9HUODJ ,6%1 ; +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ 3URGXNWLYLWlW LP %DXEHWULHE ± %DXDEODXIVW|UXQJHQ XQG 3URGXNWLYLWlWVYHUOXVWH%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU&KULVWLDQ .XPPHU0DUNXV D &KDQFHQXQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU %DXZLUWVFKDIW±)U$XIWUDJJHEHUXQG$XIWUDJQHKPHULQ3URMHNWPDQDJHPHQW%DXEHWULHE XQG%DXZLUWVFKDIW%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +RU[ =XNXQIWVLQVWLWXW *PE+ 3URJQRVH ± 3URSKH]HLXQJ ± 9LVLRQ ± 6HPDQWLVFKH 8QWHUVFKLHGH YRQ =XNXQIWV$XVVDJHQ $YDLODEOH RQOLQH DW KWWS ZZZKRU[FRP=XNXQIWVIRUVFKXQJ'RFV* 3URJQRVH9LVLRQ3URSK]HLXQJSGI $FFHVVHG1RYHPEHU KWWS VFRRSPHKDVKWDJVRUI$FFHVVHG$XJXVW -RQHQ $QGUHDV 6HPDQWLVFKH $QDO\VH GHV 5LVLNREHJULIIV ± 6WUXNWXULHUXQJ GHU EHWULHEVZLUWVFKDIWOLFKHQ 5LVLNRGHILQLWLRQHQ XQG OLWHUDWXUHPSLULVFKH $XVZHUWXQJ ± %HLWUlJH]XU&RQWUROOLQJ)RUVFKXQJ±1R±QGHG(G /LQJQDX9RONHU/HKUVWXKO IU 8QWHUQHKPHQVUHFKQXQJ XQG &RQWUROOLQJ GHU 7HFKQLVFKHQ 8QLYHUVLWlW .DLVHUV ODXWHUQ ,661 .DSODQ6WDQOH\ *DUULFN-RKQ 2Q7KH4XDQWLWDWLYH'HILQLWLRQRI5LVN,Q 5LVN $QDO\VLV9RO1R6RFLHW\RI5LVN$QDO\VLV .QLJKW )UDQN +\QHPDQ 5LVN 8QFHUWDLQW\ DQG 3URILW %RVWRQ 1HZ ¼@
LWHUDWLRQV
LWHUDWLRQV
'LUHFW FRVW RI UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV >¼@
'LUHFW FRVW RI UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV >¼@
LWHUDWLRQV
LWHUDWLRQV
,QIOXHQFHRIWKHQXPEHURILWHUDWLRQVRQWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHUHVXOWVRID0RQWH&DUOR VLPXODWLRQ /DWLQ+\SHUFXEHVDPSOLQJ
'LVWULEXWLRQ)XQFWLRQV
7REHDEOHWRSHUIRUP0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQVWKHPRGHOLQJVWHSGHWHUPLQLQJFDOFXODWLRQ UXOHV DQG PHWKRGV PXVW EH IROORZHG E\ WKH DOORFDWLRQ RI GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQV WR LQSXW SDUDPHWHUVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKXQFHUWDLQWLHV 7DEOH WR EHORZ LQFOXGH D FRPSDULVRQ RI VHOHFWHG DSSURDFKHV WR WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQVRIYDULRXVSDUDPHWHUVWDNHQIURPWKHOLWHUDWXUH 7KHIROORZLQJGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQFULWHULDDUHDSSOLHG &XUYH GLVFUHWH FRQWLQXRXV 7\SHRIERXQGDULHV FORVHG RQHVLGHGRSHQ WZRVLGHGRSHQ
7KH)XQGDPHQWDOVRI0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
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
&I.XPPHU D SI &ILELGS
'LVWULEXWLRQ)XQFWLRQV
-
.
/
0
VXUYH\
,
KLVWRULFDOYV FROOHFWHGGDWD
+
WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV
*
6DPSOLQJPHWKRG
PXOWLPRGDO
)
0RGH
XQLPRGDO
(
OHIWVNHZHG
'
ULJKWVNHZHG
&
V\PPHWULFDO
%
WZRVLGHGRSHQ
$
RQHVLGHGRSHQ
3DUDPHWHUV
6NHZQHVV
FORVHG
$XWKRU
GLVFUHWH
1R
/LPLWV
FRQWLQXRXV
&XUYH
1
2
6SHFLILFGLVWULEXWLRQ
3
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH ±SURGXFWLRQRIIUHVK FRQFUHWH
;
;
;
;
QD
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH ±UHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQV
;
;
;
;
QD
5LVNRIZHDWKHULQGXFHG ZRUNGLVUXSWLRQV
;
;
;
;
;
*DPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ
5LVNRIORZHUWKDQ H[SHFWHGRXWSXW
;
+UXVFKND
6FKXEHUW
4XDQWLILHGGDPDJH
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
*DPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ ; ;
([SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ 3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWLRQ
5LVNDULVLQJIURP FKDQJHGVFRSHRIZRUN
3ULFHULVN
;
;
;
;
;
*DPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ
5LVNDULVLQJIURP FRQVWUXFWLRQSURFHVV GHOD\VDQGGLVUXSWLRQV
;
;
;
;
;
([SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
*ROHQNR
3URFHVVGXUDWLRQV
;
;
;
; ;
'LVWULEXWLRQRI SUHFLSLWDWLRQ
;
'LQRUW
1XPEHURIIURVWDQGLFH GD\V
3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWLRQ ;
%HWDGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
/RJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
/RJQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
%LQRPLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ S
;
;
;
;
;
3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
&KLVTXDUHGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
*DPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ
'LVUXSWLRQWLPHV
;
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
*DPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
*DPPD(UODQJGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
&KLVTXDUHGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
6FKXO]
&RVWLQJDVVXPSWLRQV
;
0XVWEH FRQVLGHUHG
/HGHUHU
3URFHVVGXUDWLRQV
;
;
;
;
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV±IRUPZRUN RSHUDWLRQV FROXPQV ZDOOVIORRUV
;
;
;
;
;
*DPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV±FRQFUHWLQJ RSHUDWLRQV FROXPQV ZDOOVIORRUV
;
;
;
;
;
*DPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHV
;
;
;
;
;
*DPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ
0HDQJURVVZDJH
;
6WUHKO
/LEHUGD
;
'LVUXSWLRQWLPHV
,QWHUPHGLDWHGLVUXSWLRQ WLPHV &KDX D
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
;
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
; ;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
QD
;
;
;
;
/RJWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
7DEOH
; ; ;
;
;
([SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
'LVWULEXWLRQVDSSOLHGLQ ULVNDVVHVVPHQWV
;
;
;
5DIWHU\
;
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ QD
;
;
;
; ;
;
;
;
;
;
,ZDQ
;
3URFHVVGXUDWLRQV
;
;
; ;
(UODQJGLVWULEXWLRQ ([SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ (UODQJGLVWULEXWLRQ
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
7UDSH]RLGDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
,QFUHPHQWDOUHFWDQJXODU GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
'LVFUHWHGLVWULEXWLRQ
$QDO\VLVRIVHOHFWHGDSSURDFKHVWRWKHGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVRIYDULRXVSDUDPHWHUVLQSHUWL QHQWOLWHUDWXUH±3DUW
&I.XPPHU D S
7KH)XQGDPHQWDOVRI0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
/LQN
;
;
;
;
; ;
7LPHFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHV DQGFRVWV
;
;
;
;
;
; ;
;
;
;
;
/
VXUYH\
.
KLVWRULFDOYV FROOHFWHGGDWD
-
6DPSOLQJPHWKRG WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV
,
;
PXOWLPRGDO
+
; ;
0RGH
XQLPRGDO
*
; ;
;
;
; :HUQHU
)
V\PPHWULFDO
(
;
'
; ; ; ;
OHIWVNHZHG
&
ULJKWVNHZHG
%
/LIHF\FOHRIZRUNSLHFHV ,QIODWLRQUDWH 3ULFHWUHQGRIIXHOV )XHOFRQVXPSWLRQ &RQVWUXFWLRQPDWHULDOV XQLWVVROGSHUZHHN 'HIHFWLYHEULFNVEORFNV LQSURGXFWLRQ 7HOHSKRQHFDOOVSHU PLQXWHQXPEHURI W\SLQJHUURUVRQDVLQJOH SDJH 1XPEHURIGU\ZHOOV RLOH[SORUDWLRQ 1XPEHURIGHIHFWLYH SURGXFWVLQRQHSDFN
6NHZQHVV WZRVLGHGRSHQ
$
RQHVLGHGRSHQ
3DUDPHWHUV
FORVHG
$XWKRU
GLVFUHWH
1R
/LPLWV
FRQWLQXRXV
&XUYH
0
1
2
6SHFLILFGLVWULEXWLRQ
3
; ; ; ;
; ; ; ;
([SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ 1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ 1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ 7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
%LQRPLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
*HRPHWULFDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
+\SHUJHRPHWULF GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ 7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
5DDEHU
(VWLPDWHGTXDQWLWLHVDQG FRVWV
0XVWEH FRQVLGHUHG
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
3DUDEROLFGLVWULEXWLRQ QRWRWKHUZLVHVSHFLILHG %HWDGLVWULEXWLRQ 7KUHHSDUDPHWHUJDPPD GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KUHHSDUDPHWHULQYHUVH *DXVVLDQGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
7KUHHSDUDPHWHU ORJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
7KUHHSDUDPHWHU:HLEXOO GLVWULEXWLRQ
5RKU
3URFHVVGXUDWLRQV
6FKDFK
&RVWLQJ
;
;
;
;
;
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
%HWDGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
%HWDGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
)HLN
6LQJXODUULVNV
;
;
*LUPVFKHLG 0RW]NR
4XDQWLILHGGDPDJH
;
;
3UREDELOLW\RI RFFXUUHQFHRIDQHYHQW ±URXJKPRGHO
;
;
3URFHVVGXUDWLRQVDQG H[SHUWRSLQLRQV
;
;
)LQDQFHWKHRU\±SURILW DQGFDVKIORZ
;
([SHUWRSLQLRQV
;
*LUPVFKHLG %XVFK E
;
;
5RXJKPRGHOLQJRIULVNV
;
3UREDELOLW\RI EUHDNGRZQ
;
;
5LVNRFFXUUHQFH
;
;
'HPPOHU
'LVUXSWLRQWLPHV
7DEOH
3UREDELOLW\RI EUHDNGRZQ 7XQQHOLQJ± JURVVDGYDQFHUDWH
;
;
/LIHF\FOHRIPDFKLQHV ZLWKFRQVWDQWSUREDELOLW\ RIIDLOXUH
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
; ;
;
;
;
;
;
;
3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
([SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
%LQRPLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
'LVFUHWHGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
$QDO\VLVRIVHOHFWHGDSSURDFKHVWRWKHGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVRIYDULRXVSDUDPHWHUVLQSHUWL QHQWOLWHUDWXUH±3DUW
&I.XPPHU D S
'LVWULEXWLRQ)XQFWLRQV
&RVWRIULVNV
+DXZHUPHLUHQ 9RVH
,
-
.
/
VXUYH\
+
KLVWRULFDOYV FROOHFWHGGDWD
*
6DPSOLQJPHWKRG WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV
)
PXOWLPRGDO
(
0RGH
XQLPRGDO
'
OHIWVNHZHG
&
ULJKWVNHZHG
%
V\PPHWULFDO
$
WZRVLGHGRSHQ
6NHZQHVV
RQHVLGHGRSHQ
3DUDPHWHUV
FORVHG
$XWKRU
GLVFUHWH
1R
/LPLWV
FRQWLQXRXV
&XUYH
0
1
2
6SHFLILFGLVWULEXWLRQ
3
;
;
;
;
;
([SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
/RJJDPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
/RJORJLVWLFGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
/RJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
3DUHWRGLVWULEXWLRQ %HUQRXOOLGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
'LVFUHWHGLVWULEXWLRQ
([SHUWRSLQLRQV
;
;
;
;
3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
%LQRPLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
/RJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
3UREDELOLW\RI RFFXUUHQFH
;
1XPEHURILQFLGHQWV
;
4XDQWLILHGGDPDJH
;
,QFRPHDQGSURGXFW SULFHV
;
4XDQWLWDWLYHULVN DVVHVVPHQWE\XVHU
;
*OHLQHU
;
; ;
;
;
;
;
/LIHF\FOHRISLHFHVRI HTXLSPHQW
;
;
;
;
;
)LQDQFLDOPDUNHWUHWXUQV
;
;
;
;
;
0RGHOLQJRIYDULDEOHV ZLWKOLWWOHDYDLODEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ
;
;
; ; ; ; ;
; ; ; ; ;
([SHUWRSLQLRQV
6DQGHU
4XDQWLW\DQGFRVW XQFHUWDLQWLHV
0D\HU +RIVWDGOHU E
6FKDFK )OHPPLQJ
; ; ; ;
; ; ; ; ;
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ 3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ 7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ 3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ 5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
5LVNPRGHOLQJ ;
7DEOH
5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ
4XDQWLW\YDOXHV
;
;
; ; ;
; ; ; ;
;
3DUHWRGLVWULEXWLRQ
;
%DVLFXQLWSULFHV /DERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV±IRUPZRUN RSHUDWLRQV
; ;
([SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ ;
;
; ; ; ;
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ ;
1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ ;
/RJORJLVWLFOLNHGLVWULEXWLRQ 5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ 7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ 7UDSH]RLGDOGLVWULEXWLRQ 'LVFUHWHGLVWULEXWLRQ
$QDO\VLVRIVHOHFWHGDSSURDFKHVWRWKHGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVRIYDULRXVSDUDPHWHUVLQSHUWL QHQWOLWHUDWXUH±3DUW
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
&I.XPPHU D S &ILELG
7KH)XQGDPHQWDOVRI0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
,QIOXHQFHRIWKH6KDSHRI'LVWULEXWLRQ)XQFWLRQV
7KLV VHFWLRQ RXWOLQHV WKH LQIOXHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW LQSXW GLVWULEXWLRQV RQ WKH RXWSXW 7KH IROORZLQJLQSXWSDUDPHWHUGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVDUHFRPSDUHGRQWKHEDVLVRIFDOFXODWLQJ WKHWRWDOODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV
7ULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ 3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ 5HFWDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ 1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ /RJWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRChau /RJORJLVWLFOLNHGLVWULEXWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRHofstadler
7KH WRWDO ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH RI UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV /&55&2 >ZKPñ@ UHVXOWV IURP WKH ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV RI IRUPZRUN RSHUDWLRQV /&5)2 >ZKPð@ UHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQV/&552>ZKW@DQGFRQFUHWLQJRSHUDWLRQV/&5&2>ZKPñ@DVZHOO DVIURPWKHIRUPZRUNUDWLRIU>PðPñ@DQGWKHUHLQIRUFHPHQWUDWLRUU>NJPñ@DFFRUGLQJWR (T /&5 5&2
/&5 )2 ⋅ IU /&5 52 ⋅ UU /&5 &2
7KLV H[DPSOH VWDUWV IURP SHUIRUPLQJ D GHWHUPLQLVWLF FDOFXODWLRQ RI WKH WRWDO ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH XVLQJ WKH ILJXUHV VWDWHG LQ 7DEOH :H DSSO\ (T WR REWDLQ D GHWHUPLQLVWLFWRWDOODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRIZKPñ &DOFXODWLRQSDUDPHWHU
1R
%
8QLW
0267 /,.(/
@
&RUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQW>@
)LJ
3URGXFWRIWZRLGHQWLFDOYDULDEOHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQW
7KHUDQJHRIUHVXOWVEHFRPHVFRQWLQXRXVO\ZLGHULQOLQHZLWKWKHLQFUHDVLQJFRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWVLPLODUWRWKHHIIHFWLGHQWLILHGIRUWKHDGGLWLRQ:HQRWHWKDWIRUDFRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWRIWKH TXDQWLOHOLHVEHORZWKHPHDQLQFUHDVHGE\DVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ ±VHHWKHFXUYHODEHOHG³0HDQVWGGHY´7KLVUHVXOWLVDWWULEXWDEOHWRWKHSURQRXQFHGOHIW VNHZQHVVRIWKHKLVWRJUDPWKDWIRUPVWKHEDVLVIRUWKHGDWDSRLQWVVKRZQLQWKHGLDJUDP VHH)LJ ,Q DGGLWLRQ )LJ VKRZV WKDW WKH PHDQ GHULYHG IURP WKH VLPXODWLRQV DOVR LQFUHDVHV ZLWK WKH ULVLQJ FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW ,Q WKLV FDVH FRUUHODWLRQV LQIOXHQFH QRW RQO\ WKH VSUHDGRIUHVXOWVEXWDOVRWKHPHDQ
&I.XPPHU D S
7KH)XQGDPHQWDOVRI0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
3URGXFW 6LP U
3URGXFW 6LP 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
3URGXFWRIWZRWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQV __ ZLWKDFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWRIU
'LYLVLRQ
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
&I.XPPHU D S
&RUUHODWLRQV
4XRWLHQWRIWZRLGHQWLFDOYDULDEOHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHFRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW TXDQWLOH 0HDQ TXDQWLOH
0HDQVWGGHY 0HDQVWGGHY 0RVWOLNHO\YDOXH
4XRWLHQW>@
&RUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQW>@
)LJ
4XRWLHQWRIWZRLGHQWLFDOYDULDEOHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQW
6XPPDU\±,QIOXHQFHRI&RUUHODWLRQVRQ7ZR9DULDEOHV
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
$GGLWLRQ
&RUUHODWLRQ
0XOWLSOLFDWLRQ
6XEWUDFWLRQ
'LYLVLRQ
QHJDWLYH SRVLWLYH QHJDWLYH SRVLWLYH QHJDWLYH SRVLWLYH QHJDWLYH SRVLWLYH
6SUHDGRIUHVXOWV JHWV
ZLGHU
,QIOXHQFHRI FRUUHODWLRQVRQ PHDQ
@
)LJ
6XPRIHOHYHQLGHQWLFDOYDULDEOHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHFRUUHODWLRQVFRPSDUHGWRWKHXQFRUUHOD WHGUHVXOW
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
&I.XPPHU D S
&RPSDULVRQ±'HWHUPLQLVWLFDQG3UREDELOLVWLF&DOFXODWLRQV
&RPSDULVRQ±'HWHUPLQLVWLFDQG3UREDELOLVWLF&DO FXODWLRQV
7KLV VHFWLRQ FRPSDUHV WKH SUREOHPV RI GHWHUPLQLVWLF FDOFXODWLRQV ZLWK WKH UHVXOWV RI D 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQ DQG GHVFULEHV WKH VWUHQJWKV ZHDNQHVVHV RSSRUWXQLWLHV DQG WKUHDWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKLVW\SHRIVLPXODWLRQ 6:27DQDO\VLV
&ULWLFDO5HYLHZRI'HWHUPLQLVWLF&DOFXODWLRQV
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±VHHFDOFX ODWLRQPRGHLQ)LJ LVQRWDQLQGLFDWRURISUREDELOLW\$GHWHUPLQLVWLFDSSURDFKDOVR IDLOV WR XWLOL]H WKH NQRZOHGJH DERXW SRVVLEOH LQSXW SDUDPHWHU UDQJHV DQG WKHLU UHODWL RQVKLSV 1RU DUH RWKHU FDOFXODWLRQ PRGHV VXFK DV HQKDQFHG GHWHUPLQLVWLF 3(57 RU VLPSOLILHGSUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGVVXLWDEOHIRUGHULYLQJFRQFOXVLRQVZLWKUHVSHFWWRSURED ELOLWLHVRIRFFXUUHQFH,QDQ\FDVHHDFKRIWKHSRVVLEOHVFHQDULRVFDQEHUHIOHFWHGE\MXVWD VLQJOHILJXUHRUDWEHVWE\PLQLPXPPRVWOLNHO\DQGPD[LPXPYDOXHV$FRPSDULVRQRI ILYHFDOFXODWLRQPRGHVVKRZHGWKDWRQO\WKHUHVXOWVRIDSUREDELOLVWLFFRPSXWDWLRQPHWKRG 0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQ PDGHLWSRVVLEOHWRDVVHVVWKHTXDOLW\RIUHVXOWVREWDLQHGZLWK RWKHUPHWKRGV VHH)LJ
&I$OEHU SII 3(57VWDQGVIRU3URJUDP(YDOXDWLRQDQG5HYLHZ7HFKQLTXH &I.XPPHU+RIVWDGOHU SII
7KH)XQGDPHQWDOVRI0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
(QKDQFHGGHWHUPLQLVWLF PHWKRG PLQPRVW OLNHO\PD[
&5&2 >¼PLOOLRQ@
&5&2 >¼PLOOLRQ@
&5&2 >¼PLOOLRQ@
&5&2 >¼PLOOLRQ@
&5&2 >¼PLOOLRQ@
&XUUHQWDSSOLFDWLRQ
'HWHUPLQLVWLFPHWKRG
QRUPDORSWLPLVWLFDQGSHVVLPLVWLF
6LPSOLILHGSUREDELOLVWLF PHWKRG
0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQ
)LJ
$PRXQWRILQIRUPDWLRQDQG RSWLRQVIRULQWHUSUHWDWLRQ
3(57PHWKRG
&RPSDULVRQRIILYHFDOFXODWLRQPRGHV±'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHGLUHFWFRVWVRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQ FUHWHRSHUDWLRQV
7KLVSUREOHPKDVEHHQGLVFXVVHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHIRUPDQ\\HDUVDQGVRPHFULWLFLVPRI GHWHUPLQLVWLF FRPSXWDWLRQ PHWKRGV ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKHLU VXLWDELOLW\ IRU GHWHUPLQLQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVDQGFRVWVKDVEHHQH[SUHVVHG SchachFRQVLGHUVWKHGHWHUPLQLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQRILQYHVWPHQWFRVWVWREHSUREOHPDWLF,QD GHWHUPLQLVWLF DSSURDFK FRVW RYHUUXQV FDQ RQO\ EH LQYHVWLJDWHG E\ PHDQV RI VLPSOLILHG PHWKRGVLQYROYLQJIRULQVWDQFHVHQVLWLYLW\RUH[WUHPHDQDO\VHV0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQV URXWLQHO\GHOLYHUVXFKVHQVLWLYLW\RUH[WUHPHDQDO\VHVSchachVWURQJO\UHFRPPHQGVWKDW H[SHFWHGFRVWVVKRXOGLQIXWXUHEHGHWHUPLQHGZLWKWKHDLGRI0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQV $FFRUGLQJWRSchneider/Spiegl/SanderGHPDQGLQJDQH[DFWILJXUHGLUHFWO\FRQWUDGLFWVWKH UHTXLUHPHQW RI DQ H[FHHGLQJO\ DFFXUDWH IRUHFDVW 7KH IUHTXHQWO\ DSSOLHG GHWHUPLQLVWLF PHWKRGVOHDGWRUHVXOWVRIH[WUHPHO\OLPLWHGYDOLGLW\ SchulzPHQWLRQVWKDWKLVWRULFDOGDWDFDQEHXVHGWRGHULYHLQFLGHQFHGLVWULEXWLRQVZKLFK SHUPLWFRQFOXVLRQVDVWRWKHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVLPLODUSURFHVVHV+H DQDO\]HGELGVIURPVXEPLVVLRQVLQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQLQGXVWU\DQGFDOFXODWHGDYHUDJH ELGDPRXQWVDQGSHUFHQWDJHGHYLDWLRQVIRUHDFKRIWKHVXEPLVVLRQV5HVXOWVZHUHSORWWHG LQDKLVWRJUDPZLWKDVSUHDGIURPWRGRFXPHQWHGEHWZHHQWKHKLJKHVWDQGWKH ORZHVWELGZKHUHUHSUHVHQWHGWKHPHDQRIWKHELGVSHUVXEPLVVLRQ,QRWKHUZRUGV WKHKLJKHVWELGTXRWHGDERXWWKUHHWLPHVWKHDPRXQWRIWKHORZHVWSchulzIXUWKHUVWDWHV WKDWDODUJHUQXPEHURIDQDO\]HGELGVZRXOGSUHVXPDEO\KDYHH[SDQGHGWKHVSUHDGHYHQ PRUH+HHPSKDVL]HVWKDWDEVROXWHVSUHDGOLPLWVDUHQRWXVHIXO
&I6FKDFK S &I6DQGHU6SLHJO6FKQHLGHU S &I6FKXO] S II
&RPSDULVRQ±'HWHUPLQLVWLFDQG3UREDELOLVWLF&DOFXODWLRQV
SchulzRXWOLQHVWKHIROORZLQJEHQHILWVRINQRZLQJWKHVSUHDGVRIFRVWYDOXHV &RVWVXUYH\RUVZRXOGEHDEOHWRFRPSDUHWKHLURZQFRVWLQJVSUHDGVZLWKWKRVHRIWKHLU FROOHDJXHVRUFRPSHWLWRUV &RQVWUXFWLRQ FRQWUDFWRUV FDQ EHFRPH DZDUH RI SRWHQWLDO ORVVHV LI WKH\ DUH DZDUGHG D FRQWUDFWDWDFRPSDUDWLYHO\ORZSULFH &RQVWUXFWLRQ FRQWUDFWRUV ZRXOG KDYH WR TXHVWLRQ WKHLU SHUIRUPDQFH FDSDFLW\ DQG SURGXFWLYLW\ LI WKH\ DOZD\V HQG XS IDU DERYH WKH ORZHVW ELG LQ VSLWH RI DJJUHVVLYH SULFLQJ &RQYHUVHO\FOLHQWVFRXOGDVNWKHPVHOYHVE\KRZPXFKELGSULFHVZRXOGGHFOLQHLIWKH\ LQFUHDVHGWKHQXPEHURIUHTXHVWHGELGV ,Q WKLV FRQWH[W Lederer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
6:27$QDO\VLVIRU0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
,QWKHLQGLYLGXDOSURMHFWSKDVHV0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQVDUHDXVHIXOWRROIRUFOLHQWVDQG FRQWUDFWRUV DOLNH IRU LQIRUPLQJ WKH GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ SURFHVV FDUU\LQJ RXW VHQVLWLYLW\ DQDO\VHVDQGLPSOHPHQWLQJRSWLPL]DWLRQVWHSV $ 6:27 DQDO\VLV VWXGLHV WKH EHQHILWV DQG GLVDGYDQWDJHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DSSO\LQJ 0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQV ,QWKLVFRQWH[WWenzel et alVWDWHWKHIROORZLQJZLWKUHVSHFWWR³VLPXODWLRQZRUWKLQHVV´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
&ILELGS &I/HGHUHU SI $FURQ\PRI6WUHQJWKV:HDNQHVVHV2SSRUWXQLWLHVDQG7KUHDWV &I:HQ]HOHWDO S
7KH)XQGDPHQWDOVRI0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
6WUHQJWKV
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
:HDNQHVVHV
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
2SSRUWXQLWLHV
3HUIRUPLQJ0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQVLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHIROORZLQJRSSRUWXQLWLHV 6LPXODWLRQ UHVXOWV FDQ EH LQWHUSUHWHG ZLWK WKH DLG RI VHQVLWLYLW\ DQDO\VHV VXFK DV WRUQDGRSRLQWDQGVSLGHUGLDJUDPV 6LPXODWLRQPRGHOVFDQSRWHQWLDOO\PDNHDPDMRUFRQWULEXWLRQWRLPSOHPHQWLQJSUREDEL OLVWLFRSWLPL]DWLRQ RSHUDWLRQVUHVHDUFK 'HSHQGHQFLHV EHWZHHQ LQSXWV FDQ EH LQFRUSRUDWHG LQ WKH FDOFXODWLRQV E\ PHDQV RI FRUUHODWLRQV
6XPPDU\
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
7KUHDWV
7KHIROORZLQJWKUHDWVH[LVWLQWKHFRQWH[WRIDSSO\LQJ0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQV 7KHTXDOLW\RIWKHRXWSXWVZLOODOZD\VGHSHQGRQWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHLQSXWVDQGRIWKH FRPSXWDWLRQPRGHOZKLFKLVYHU\PXFKLQOLQHZLWKWKH*,*2 *DUEDJH,Q*DUEDJH 2XW SULQFLSOH 6LPXODWLRQUHVXOWVDSSHDUDVDSURGXFWRID³EODFNER[´LQWKHDEVHQFHRIDQ\LQGLFDWLRQ DQGGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVXVHG ,I QR DGMXVWPHQWIDFWRU PDWUL[ LV GHILQHG ZKHQ FRQVLGHULQJ FRUUHODWLRQV DXWRPDWLF DGMXVWPHQWRI DQRQFRQVLVWHQW FRUUHODWLRQPDWUL[PD\UHVXOWLQDPDWUL[LQFRPSDWLEOH ZLWKWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVLQWHQGHGDWWKHLQSXWVWDJH
6XPPDU\
3HUIRUPLQJ SUREDELOLVWLF FDOFXODWLRQV SRVHV D FKDOOHQJH WR VWXGHQWV UHVHDUFKHUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV ,Q WKH SUHVHQFH RI D EDVLF PDWKHPDWLFDO XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DQG DIWHU GHWHUPL QLVWLF PRGHOLQJ 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQV PDNH VXFK FDOFXODWLRQV HDVLHU 6LPXODWLRQV GHOLYHUQXPHULFDOVROXWLRQVWKDWHQDEOHXVHUVWRLQYHVWPRUHWLPHDQGHIIRUWLQPRGHOLQJ DQGVHOHFWLQJDSSURSULDWHGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVDVZHOODVFRUUHODWLRQV 3RWHQWLDO XVHUV PD\ QRW QHFHVVDULO\ SRVVHVV LQGHSWK NQRZOHGJH RI WKH 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQPHWKRGEHFDXVHLWKHDYLO\UHOLHVRQSUREDELOLW\WKHRU\7KLVFKDSWHUGHVFULEHG LWVEDVLFSULQFLSOHVDQGLQFOXGHGZRUNHGH[DPSOHVIRUIXUWKHUH[SODQDWLRQ,WWKXVSURYLGHG EDVLFNQRZOHGJHWRFUHDWHDQXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHIROORZLQJFKDSWHUVZKLOHHQFRXUDJLQJ LQGHSHQGHQWWKLQNLQJDQGDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRG 7KLV FKDSWHU GHVFULEHG WKH RULJLQ DQG HYROXWLRQ RI WKH 0RQWH &DUOR PHWKRG ZKLOH DOVR PDNLQJ WKH GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ PHWKRG DQG VLPXODWLRQ ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH SUREOHP RI JHQHUDWLQJUDQGRPQXPEHUVZDVGLVFXVVHGLQGHWDLO:RUNHGH[DPSOHVZHUHXVHGWRYLVXDOL]H DQG LQWHUSUHW WKH HIIHFWV RI GLIIHUHQW GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQV DQG FRUUHODWLRQV RQ VLPXODWLRQ UHVXOWV 7KHIROORZLQJFKDSWHUFRQFHQWUDWHVRQWKHV\VWHPDWLFVHOHFWLRQRIGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVDV DQHVVHQWLDOSUHUHTXLVLWHIRUPRGHOLQJ,WDOVRH[SODLQVKRZGDWDUHFRUGVFDQEHILWWHGIRU JHQHUDWLQJ GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQV IRU LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV )XUWKHUPRUH LW DOVR VWUHVVHV WKH VLJQLILFDQFH RI FRUUHODWLRQV DQG RXWOLQHV ZD\V RI LGHQWLI\LQJ WKHP E\ PHDQV RI H[SHUW VXUYH\V,QLWVODVWSDUWWKHQH[WFKDSWHUGHDOVZLWKWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWV ZKLFKLVDFUXFLDOFRPSRQHQWRIWKHHQWLUHSURFHVV
7KH)XQGDPHQWDOVRI0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
5HIHUHQFHV
$OEHU $OH[DQGHU 5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQW LQ %DXXQWHUQHKPHQ ± (LQH $QDO\VH YRQ 7KHRULHXQG3UD[LV0DVWHU¶VWKHVLV*UD],QVWLWXWHRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DQDJHPHQWDQG (FRQRPLFV*UD]8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\ %|KQOHLQ &ODXV%XUNDUG 6LPXODWLRQ LQ GHU %HWULHEVZLUWVFKDIW ,Q ([SHULHQFHV IURP WKH )XWXUH ± 1HZ 0HWKRGV DQG$SSOLFDWLRQV LQ 6LPXODWLRQ IRU 3URGXFWLRQ DQG /RJLVWLFV±7DJXQJVEDQG$6,0)DFKWDJXQJ6LPXODWLRQLQ3URGXNWLRQXQG/RJLVWLN %HUOLQ 2FWREHU (GV 0HUWLQV .DL 5DEH 0DUNXV 6WXWWJDUW )UDXQ KRIHU,5%9HUODJ ,6%1 %|KQOHLQ&ODXV%XUNDUG 6LPXODWLRQVXQWHUVWW]WH6SH]LILNDWLRQXQG$QDO\VHYRQ *HVFKlIWVPRGHOOHQ XQG *HVFKl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lVLHGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW'DUPVWDGW ,6%1 'LQRUW*QWHU %HUFNVLFKWLJXQJVWRFKDVWLVFKHU(LQIOVVHLQGHU.RVWHQUHFKQXQJ HLQHU%DXXQWHUQHKPXQJ'RFWRUDOWKHVLV0XQLFK/HKUVWXKOIU7XQQHOEDXXQG%DXEH WULHEVOHKUHGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW0QFKHQ 'XGHQ 'HXWVFKHV8QLYHUVDOZ|UWHUEXFK0DQQKHLP%LEOLRJUDSKLVFKHV,QVWLWXW )$%URFNKDXV$* ,6%1 )HLN 5RODQG (OHNWURQLVFK JHVWW]WHV 5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQW LP %DXZHVHQ ± (LQ .RQ]HSWHLQHVHOHNWURQLVFKHQ&KDQFHQXQG*HIDKUHQPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPVIU$XIWUDJ JHEHU 'RFWRUDO WKHVLV ,QQVEUXFN )DNXOWlW IU %DXLQJHQLHXUZLVVHQVFKDIWHQ GHU /HRSROG)UDQ]HQV8QLYHUVLWlW,QQVEUXFN *LUPVFKHLG*HUKDUG 0RW]NR&KULVWRSK .DONXODWLRQXQG3UHLVELOGXQJLQ%DXXQ WHUQHKPHQ ± *UXQGODJHQ 0HWKRGLN XQG 2UJDQLVDWLRQ %HUOLQ +HLGHOEHUJ 6SULQJHU 9HUODJ ,6%1 *LUPVFKHLG *HUKDUG %XVFK 7KRUVWHQ$ E 8QWHUQHKPHQVULVLNRPDQDJHPHQW LQ GHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW%HUOLQ%DXZHUN9HUODJ*PE+ ,6%1 *OHLQHU :HUQHU *UXQGODJHQ GHV 5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWV LP 8QWHUQHKPHQ ± &RQWUROOLQJ 8QWHUQHKPHQVVWUDWHJLH XQG ZHUWRULHQWLHUWHV 0DQDJHPHQW ± QG HG 0XQLFK9HUODJ)UDQ]9DKOHQ ,6%1 *ROHQNR ' , 6WDWLVWLVFKH 0HWKRGHQ GHU 1HW]SODQWHFKQLN 6WXWWJDUW /HLS]LJ % *7HXEQHU9HUODJVJHVHOOVFKDIW ,6%1
5HIHUHQFHV
*RWWVFKDON0D]RX] 1LHOV 5LVLNR ,Q +DQGEXFK (WKLN (GV 'ZHOO 0DUFXV +EHQWKDO &KULVWRSK :HUQHU 0LFKD + 6WXWWJDUW :HLPDU 0HW]OHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +DXZHUPHLUHQ 0LFKDHO 9DQ 9RVH 'DYLG $ &RPSHQGLXP RQ 'LVWULEXWLRQV H%RRN$YDLODEOHRQOLQHDW KWWS ZZZYRVHVRIWZDUHFRPFRQWHQWHERRNSGI$FFHVVHG2FWREHU +HQJDUWQHU:DOWHU 7KHRGRUHVFX5DGX (LQIKUXQJLQGLH0RQWH&DUOR0HWKRGH 0XQLFK9LHQQD&DUO+DQVHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ $SSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 0RQWH&DUOR 0HWKRG WR 'HWHUPLQH WKH &RVWVIRU&RQVWUXFWLRQ3URMHFWV±,QIOXHQFHRI5DQJHVDQG&RUUHODWLRQVRQ3UREDELOLW\ 'LVWULEXWLRQ3UHVHQWDWLRQ±3DOLVDGH5LVN&RQIHUHQFH±5LVN$QDO\VLV$SSOLFD WLRQV 7UDLQLQJ$PVWHUGDP $YDLODEOH RQOLQH DW KWWS ZZZSDOLVDGHFRPGRZQORDGV8VHU&RQI(8 3DOLVDGH#5,6.+RIVWDGOHUSGI$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ 3URGXNWLYLWlW LP %DXEHWULHE ± %DXDEODXIVW|UXQJHQ XQG 3URGXNWLYLWlWVYHUOXVWH%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ E 0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQ LP %DXEHWULHE ± 9HUWHLOXQJV IXQNWLRQIU$XIZDQGVZHUWHEHL6FKDODUEHLWHQ±+HUOHLWXQJGHU9HUWHLOXQJVIXQNWLRQDXV GHQ(UJHEQLVVHQHLQHU([SHUWHQEHIUDJXQJ,Q %DXLQJHQLHXU%DQG 0D\ 'VVHOGRUI6SULQJHU9',9HUODJ*PE+ &R.* O661 +RIVWDGOHU&KULVWLDQ .XPPHU0DUNXV D &KDQFHQXQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU %DXZLUWVFKDIW±)U$XIWUDJJHEHUXQG$XIWUDJQHKPHULQ3URMHNWPDQDJHPHQW%DXEHWULHE XQG%DXZLUWVFKDIW%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +UXVFKND-RKDQQ 'LH$QZHQGXQJGHV1RUPSURGXNWVLQGHU%DXEHWULHEVSODQXQJ (UOlXWHUW DP %HLVSLHO GHU 5RKEDXDUEHLWHQ LP +RFKEDX 'RFWRUDO WKHVLV 0XQLFK )DNXOWlWIU%DXZHVHQGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ+RFKVFKXOH0QFKHQ KWWS ZZZPDWKVFLKLURVKLPDXDFMSaPPDW07HPWKWPO $FFHVVHG 'HFHPEHU ,ZDQ *HUKDUG %HLWUDJ ]XU $QZHQGXQJ GHU 6LPXODWLRQ XQG 5HLKHQIROJHRSWL PLHUXQJ EHL GHU $QDO\VH YRQ %DXSURGXNWLRQVSUR]HVVHQ )RUWVFKULWWVEHULFKWH 9', ± 5HLKH %DXLQJHQLHXUZHVHQ1U'VVHOGRUI9',9HUODJ ,6%1 .UHPSO6LPRQH .RUUHODWLRQHQEHL$XIZDQGVZHUWHQIU6FKDOXQG%HZHKUXQJV DUEHLWHQ0DVWHU¶VWKHVLV*UD],QVWLWXWHRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DQDJHPHQWDQG(FRQRPLFV *UD]8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\ .XPPHU0DUNXV D $JJUHJLHUWH%HUFNVLFKWLJXQJYRQ3URGXNWLYLWlWVYHUOXVWHQEHL GHU(UPLWWOXQJYRQ%DXNRVWHQXQG%DX]HLWHQ±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lW0QFKHQ
7KH)XQGDPHQWDOVRI0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
/LEHUGD:DOWHU (UPLWWOXQJGHV.DONXODWLRQVZDJQLVVHVLP%DXZHVHQGXUFKVWRFK DVWLVFKH%HUHFKQXQJGHU+HUVWHOONRVWHQ'RFWRUDOWKHVLV*UD])DNXOWlWIU%DXLQJHQL HXUZHVHQGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW*UD](U]KHU]RJ-RKDQQ8QLYHUVLWlW /LQN 'RULV 5LVLNREHZHUWXQJ YRQ %DXSUR]HVVHQ ± 0RGHOO 52$' ± 5LVN DQG 2SSRUWXQLW\ $QDO\VLV 'HYLFH 'RFWRUDO WKHVLV 9LHQQD ,QVWLWXW IU %DXEHWULHE XQG %DXZLUWVFKDIWGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW:LHQ 0DWWHUQ )ULHGPDQQ 0RGHOOELOGXQJ XQG 6LPXODWLRQ )DFKEHUHLFK ,QIRUPDWLN GHU 7HFKQLVFKHQ+RFKVFKXOH'DUPVWDGW $YDLODEOHRQOLQHDW KWWS ZZZYVLQIHWK]FKSXEOSDSHUV0RGB6LPSGI$FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU 0D\HU )UDQ] ;DYHU .RVWHQVLFKHUKHLW ]XP =HLWSXQNW GHU 5HDOLVLHUXQJVHQW VFKHLGXQJ ± (QWZLFNOXQJ HLQHV .RVWHQ3URJQRVH0RGHOOV IU %DXZHUNVNRVWHQ LP +RFKEDX'RFWRUDOWKHVLV0XQLFK/HKUVWXKOIU%DXSUR]HVVPDQDJHPHQWXQG,PPREL OLHQHQWZLFNOXQJGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW0QFKHQ 0HWURSROLV1LFKRODV 8ODP6WDQLVODZ 7KH0RQWH&DUOR0HWKRG,Q -RXUQDORI WKH $PHULFDQ 6WDWLVWLFDO $VVRFLDWLRQ 9RO 1R 6HSWHPEHU 2[IRUG7D\ORU )UDQFLV/WG ,661 06& KWWS ZZZDPVRUJPDWKVFLQHWPVFSGIVFODVVLILFDWLRQVSGI $FFHVVHG 'HFHPEHU 1DXPDQQ 5HQp .RVWHQ5LVLNR$QDO\VH IU 9HUNHKUVLQIUDVWUXNWXUSURMHNWH $XV )RUVFKXQJXQG3UD[LV±%DQG±6FKULIWHQUHLKHGHV,QVWLWXWVIU%DXEHWULHEVZHVHQGHU 7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW'UHVGHQ(G 6FKDFK5DLQHU'UHVGHQ([SHUW9HUODJ ,6%1 3DOLVDGH&RUSRUDWLRQ %HQXW]HUKDQGEXFK±#5LVN±5LVLNRDQDO\VHQXQG6LPXOD WLRQV$GG,QIU0LFURVRIW([FHO±0DUFK 3DOLVDGH&RUSRUDWLRQ +RZ#5LVN7HVWVD&RUUHODWLRQ0DWUL[IRU9DOLGLW\3DOLVDGH .QRZOHGJH%DVH KWWS NESDOLVDGHFRPLQGH[SKS"SJ NESDJH LG $FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU 5DDEHU 1RUEHUW %HLWUDJ ]X $XVVFKUHLEXQJ XQG 9HUJDEH YRQ %DXOHLVWXQJHQ 6FKULIWHQUHLKHGHV,QVWLWXWVIU%DXEHWULHEXQG%DXZLUWVFKDIWGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHU VLWlW*UD]±+HIW(G 6WDGOHU*HUW*UD]9HUODJGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW*UD] ,6%1 5DIIHO:ROI8OULFK 6LPXODWLRQVWKHRULH,QVWLWXWIU,QIRUPDWLNGHU)UHLHQ8QLYHU VLWlW%HUOLQ$YDLODEOHRQOLQHDW KWWS ZZZZXUDIIHOGHZLVVHQVFKDIWSXEOLNDWLRQHQ6LPXODWLRQVWKHRULHSGI $FFHVVHG 1RYHPEHU 5DIWHU\ -RKQ 5LVN $QDO\VLV ± ,Q 3URMHFW 0DQDJHPHQW /RQGRQ 1HZ ¼@ &KDQJHLQRXWSXWPHDQDFURVVUDQJHRILQSXWYDOXHV
1HWSUHVHQWYDOXH>¼@
5HYHQXHV(
&DSLWDOH[SHQVH(
,PSXWHGLQWHUHVW(
,QSXWSHUFHQWLOH>@
)LJ
6SLGHUGLDJUDP±&RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHFKDQJHLQLQSXWVDQGWKHFKDQJHLQRXWSXW QHWSUH VHQWYDOXH
&I3DOLVDGH&RUSRUDWLRQ S
$SSOLFDWLRQRI0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQV
6XPPDU\
0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQV FDQ EH DSSOLHG FRUUHFWO\ DQG SXUSRVHIXOO\ RQO\ LI ³UHDOLVWLF´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
5HIHUHQFHV
$ERX5L]N 6LPDDQ 0 +DOSLQ 'DQLHO : 6WDWLVWLFDO 3URSHUWLHV RI &RQVWUXFWLRQ 'XUDWLRQ'DWD,Q -RXUQDORI&RQVWUXFWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW9RO1R 6HSWHPEHU $PHULFDQ 6RFLHW\ RI &LYLO (QJLQHHUV $6&( ,661 'LHNPDQQ $QGUHDV (PSLULVFKH 6R]LDOIRUVFKXQJ ± *UXQGODJHQ 0HWKRGHQ $QZHQGXQJHQ (G .|QLJ %XUJKDUG 5HLQEHN EHL +DPEXUJ 5RZRKOW 7DVFKHQEXFK 9HUODJ*PE+ ,6%1 'LQRUW*QWHU %HUFNVLFKWLJXQJVWRFKDVWLVFKHU(LQIOVVHLQGHU.RVWHQUHFKQXQJ HLQHU%DXXQWHUQHKPXQJ'RFWRUDOWKHVLV0XQLFK/HKUVWXKOIU7XQQHOEDXXQG%DXEH WULHEVOHKUHGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW0QFKHQ *OlVHU -RFKHQ /DXGHO *ULW ([SHUWHQLQWHUYLHZV XQG TXDOLWDWLYH ,QKDOWVDQDO\VH DOV ,QVWUXPHQWHUHNRQVWUXLHUHQGHU8QWHUVXFKXQJHQ±/HKUEXFK±WKHG:LHVEDGHQ969HUODJ IU6R]LDOZLVVHQVFKDIWHQ6SULQJHU)DFKPHGLHQ*PE+ ,6%1 *RUGHQ 5D\PRQG / ,QWHUYLHZLQJ ± 6WUDWHJ\ 7HFKQLTXHV DQG 7DFWLFV +RPHZRRG,OOLQRLV7KH'RUVH\3UHVV +LQW]H-HUU\/ 1HOVRQ5D\' 9LROLQ3ORWV $%R[3ORW'HQVLW\7UDFH6\QHUJLVP ,Q 7KH $PHULFDQ 6WDWLVWLFLDQ 9RO 1R $Q 2IILFLDO -RXUQDO RI WKH $PHULFDQ6WDWLVWLFDO$VVRFLDWLRQ7D\ORU )UDQFLV ,661 2QOLQH
5HIHUHQFHV
+RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ 6FKDODUEHLWHQ ± 7HFKQRORJLVFKH *UXQGODJHQ 6LFKWEHWRQ 6\VWHPDXVZDKO $EODXISODQXQJ /RJLVWLN XQG .DONXODWLRQ %HUOLQ +HLGHOEHUJ 6SULQJHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ E 0RQWH&DUOR6LPXODWLRQ LP %DXEHWULHE ± 9HUWHLOXQJV IXQNWLRQIU$XIZDQGVZHUWHEHL6FKDODUEHLWHQ±+HUOHLWXQJGHU9HUWHLOXQJVIXQNWLRQDXV GHQ(UJHEQLVVHQHLQHU([SHUWHQEHIUDJXQJ,Q %DXLQJHQLHXU%DQG 0D\ 'VVHOGRUI6SULQJHU9',9HUODJ*PE+ &R.* ,661 +RIVWDGOHU&KULVWLDQ .XPPHU0DUNXV D 5LVLNHQXQG&KDQFHQGHU0LVFKSUHLVNDONX ODWLRQ ,Q 7DJXQJVEDQG ± *UD]HU %DXEHWULHEV XQG %DXZLUWVFKDIWVV\PSRVLXP ± 3UHLVHUPLWWOXQJ XQG9HUJDEH LQ GHU %DXZLUWVFKDIW ± %DXEHWULHEOLFKH EDXZLUWVFKDIWOLFKH XQGUHFKWOLFKH$VSHNWH(GV +HFN'HWOHI 0DXHUKRIHU*RWWIULHG +RIVWDGOHU&KULVWLDQ *UD]9HUODJGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW*UD] ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ HW DO (LQIOXVV YRQ /RKQ XQG 6R]LDOGXPSLQJ DXI GHQ :HWWEHZHUELQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW±)RUVFKXQJVSURMHNW*UD],QVWLWXWHRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ 0DQDJHPHQWDQG(FRQRPLFV*UD]8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\ +RIVWDGOHU&KULVWLDQ .XPPHU0DUNXV D &KDQFHQXQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU %DXZLUWVFKDIW±)U$XIWUDJJHEHUXQG$XIWUDJQHKPHULQ3URMHNWPDQDJHPHQW%DXEHWULHE XQG%DXZLUWVFKDIW%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ .XPPHU 0DUNXV E &DOFXODWLRQ RI WKH ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH IRU VKXWWHULQJ ZRUNV ZKLOVW FRQVLGHULQJ XQFHUWDLQWLHV ± ,QIOXHQFH RI GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQV RQ SUREDELOLVWLF FDOFXODWLRQV ,Q 5HVLOLHQW 6WUXFWXUHV DQG 6XVWDLQDEOH &RQVWUXFWLRQ±,6(& (GV 3HOOLFHU(XJHQLR $GDP-RVp0 @
&UDQHDQGFUDQH EXFNHWIRUDOO VWUXFWXUDO FRPSRQHQWV
&UDQHRQO\IRUZDOOV DQGFROXPQV
&UDQHRQO\IRU FROXPQV
1RFUDQH
1XPEHURIZRUNHUVSHU WRSVOHZLQJFUDQH
7DEOH
&UDQHSURSRUWLRQDOLW\IDFWRUV±0D[LPXPXVDEOHQXPEHURIZRUNHUVSHUFUDQHZLWKRXWLQFXU ULQJORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\±8VHRIDWRSVOHZLQJFUDQH
)LJ VKRZV WKH QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV SHU FUDQH LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK WKH GHILQHG FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHFDWHJRULHV)RUWKHPD[LPXPYDOXHZHDVVXPHGWKDWFRQFUHWLQJWDNHV SODFHZLWKRXWXVLQJDFUDQH LHZRUNHUVFUDQH 7KXVWKHUHGXFWLRQDSSOLHGWRWKH PD[LPXPYDOXH ZRUNHUVFUDQH ZRUNHUVFUDQH UHSUHVHQWVWKHFDVHLQZKLFK DQRUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHLVSRVVLEOH 1XPEHURIZRUNHUVSHUFUDQH
:.FUDQH :.FUDQH
:.FUDQH
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>G@
:.FUDQH :.FUDQH
([WUHPHO\VKRUW FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH 9HU\VKRUWFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH 6KRUWFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH 1RUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH /RQJFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
KWWS ZZZEHWKDQ\EXW]HUFRP
)LJ
5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHSURSRUWLRQDOIDFWRUIRUFUDQHVDQGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
,WLVQHFHVVDU\WRGHWHUPLQHWKHQXPEHURIFUDQHVWKDWFDQEHLQVWDOOHGIRUVLWHORJLVWLFVLQ WKH DUHD RI WKH EXLOGLQJ LQ RUGHU WR FDOFXODWH WKH QRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH IURP WKH ELGGHU¶VFRQWUDFWRU¶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
&I+RIVWDGOHU S &I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU S &I+RIVWDGOHU S
,QIOXHQFHRI3URMHFW/HDG7LPHDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URMHFW7DUJHWV
I :.
:. 5&2$9* :. 5&20$;
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ñ@ ZKLOH DOVR FRQVLGHULQJ WKH IRUPZRUN UDWLR IU >PðPñ@ DQG WKH UHLQIRUFHPHQWUDWLRUU>WPñ@ VHH(T /&5 5&2
/&5 )2 ⋅ IU /&5 52 ⋅ UU /&5 &2
7KHGDLO\ZRUNLQJWLPH:7>KG@LVUHTXLUHGDVWKHODVWLQSXWYDULDEOHIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKH SHUIRUPDQFHYDOXH7KHQXPEHURIZRUNHUVWKHWRWDOODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHDQGWKHGDLO\ ZRUNLQJ WLPH FDQ EH XVHG IRU FDOFXODWLQJ WKH DYHUDJH GDLO\ SHUIRUPDQFH UHODWLYH WR WKH UHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV395&2$9*>PñG@ VHH(T 39 5&2, $9*
:7 ⋅ :. 5&2$9* /&5 5&2
'LYLGLQJWKHWRWDOUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHYROXPH&9>Pñ@E\WKHGDLO\SHUIRUPDQFHUHVXOWVLQ WKH QRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH IRU UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV '5&2 >G@ ZLWKRXW EXIIHU ' 5&2
&9 39 5&2$9*
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
6SHFLILFDWLRQRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPH
6FHQDULRVLI&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHLV7RR6KRUW
,I DQ H[FHHGLQJO\ VKRUW FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH LV VSHFLILHG VKRUWHU WKDQ WKH ³QRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH´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
&RQVHTXHQFHVIRUWKH&OLHQW
,I WKH FOLHQW VSHFLILHV D VKRUWHU FRQVWUXFWLRQ SHULRG WKDQ GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH ELGGHUFRQWUDFWRU DV WKH QRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH WKH\ VKRXOG H[SHFW FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU WKHSULFHVTXRWHGDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\LQYRLFHG,QDGGLWLRQDGYHUVHHIIHFWVRQTXDOLW\VKRXOG EHH[SHFWHGZKLFKZLOOVXEVHTXHQWO\LQIOXHQFHWKHXVHRUUHXVHRIWKHEXLOGLQJ
&I+RIVWDGOHU SI
,QIOXHQFHRI3URMHFW/HDG7LPHDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URMHFW7DUJHWV
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVW>@
3URGXFWLYLW\>@
)LJVKRZVWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVSHFLILHGE\WKHFOLHQWLQFRPSDULVRQWRWKHQRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH VSHFLILHG E\ WKH ELGGHUFRQWUDFWRU ,W LV VKRUWHU WKDQ WKH QRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH DQG LV WKXV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D KLJKHU FRVW PLQLPXP 7KH ELGGHUFRQWUDFWRU DWWHPSWV WR RSWLPDOO\ FRRUGLQDWH WKHLU SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV IRU WKH VSHFLILHG FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH VR DV WR DFKLHYH WKH ORFDO FRVW PLQLPXP IRU WKLV VSHFLILHG SHULRGE\FRPELQLQJWKHSURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVW 1RUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVW
3URGXFWLYLW\
6SHFLILHG FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
)LJ
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>G@
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVSHFLILHGE\WKHFOLHQWFRPSDUHGWRWKHELGGHU¶VFRQWUDFWRU¶VQRUPDOFRQ VWUXFWLRQWLPH
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³QRUPDOSURGXFWLRQFRQGLWLRQV´ HVVHQ WLDOO\GHWHUPLQHGE\D³QRUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH´ DUHVSHFLILHGLWZLOOEHHDVLHUWRDGDSW WR FKDQJHV RU GLVUXSWLRQV WR WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURFHVV 5HVLOLHQW SURGXFWLRQ V\VWHPV DUH FKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKHLUIOH[LELOLW\GLYHUVLW\UHGXQGDQF\DQGRUIUHHFDSDFLWLHV7KHVHDUH SUHFLVHO\WKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKDWDUHUHGXFHGE\WKHGULYHIRUHIILFLHQF\
&I+RIVWDGOHU S
6SHFLILFDWLRQRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPH
,QWKH&RQWUDFW$ZDUG3KDVH
)RUDQRUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHWKHELGGHUFDQGHWHUPLQHWKHFRPELQDWLRQRISURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV ZLWK QRUPDO SURGXFWLYLW\ ,W FDQ WKXV EH DVVXPHG LQ WKLV SULFLQJ SKDVH WKDW QR ORVVHV RI SURGXFWLYLW\ ZLOO RFFXU GXH WR DQ H[FHHGLQJO\ VKRUW FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH QRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH LV DOVR H[SHFWHG WR LQFXU WKH ORZHVW FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVW7KLVFLUFXPVWDQFHFDQEHIDFWRUHGLQWRWKHELGGHU¶VSULFLQJVWUDWHJ\ +RZHYHU LI WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH VSHFLILHG E\ WKH FOLHQW LV VKRUWHU WKDQ WKH QRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHFDOFXODWHGE\WKHELGGHUFRQWUDFWRU ZKLFKLVXVXDOO\WKHFDVH WKHODWWHU FDQQRORQJHUDVVXPHDQRUPDOFRPELQDWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUVIRUWKHSXUSRVHRILWV SULFLQJ)RUWKLVUHDVRQORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\QHHGWREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWZKHQGHWHU PLQLQJ WKH FRVWV ]HUREDVH FRVWLQJ ZKLFK LV H[SHFWHG WR OHDG WR D ORFDO KLJKHU FRVW PLQLPXP7KHFOLHQWZRXOGKDYHWRH[SHFWDKLJKHUELGSULFHLIWKHELGGHUZHUHDEOHWR IDFWRUWKHVHFLUFXPVWDQFHVLQWRWKHSULFLQJ $FFRUGLQJWRWKHSULQFLSOHRIWKHEDODQFHEHWZHHQZRUNSHUIRUPDQFHDQGFRQVLGHUDWLRQ WKLV ZRXOG DOVR OHDG WR KLJKHU ELG SULFHV LI DOO ELGGHUV ZHUH WR LGHQWLI\ WKH VLWXDWLRQ FRUUHFWO\WDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJHIIHFWVRQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQPDQDJHPHQW DQGHFRQRPLFVOHYHOVLQWKHLUFRVWLQJDQGSULFLQJSURFHVVHV,IELGGHUVHQJDJHLQZDJHDQG VRFLDOGXPSLQJ LQ WKHLU FRPSHWLWLYH HQYLURQPHQWWKLV HIIHFW ZLOOREYLRXVO\ EH GLVWRUWHG EHFDXVHVXFKELGGHUVZLOODOZD\VEHLQDSRVLWLRQWRTXRWHFKHDSHUSULFHVWKDQFRQVWUXFWLRQ FRPSDQLHVSHUIRUPLQJWKHLUFRVWLQJDQGSULFLQJLQFRPSOLDQFHZLWKWKHDSSOLFDEOHOHJDO UHTXLUHPHQWV
,QWKH&RQVWUXFWLRQ3KDVH
,I WKH VSHFLILHG FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH LV VKRUWHU WKDQ WKH QRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH JUHDWHU ORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\VKRXOGEHH[SHFWHGLQWKHFDVHRIGHYLDWLRQVIURPWKHORFDOPLQLPXP WKDQLQWKHFDVHRIGHYLDWLRQVIURPWKHPLQLPXPLQWKHQRUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH7KHEHQG LVPRUHSURQRXQFHGLQWKHFXUYHUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHVSHFLILHGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHEHFDXVHVLWH RSHUDWLRQVZLOOUHVSRQGPRUHVHQVLWLYHO\WRFKDQJHVDQGGLVUXSWLRQV VHH)LJ 7KLVLV GXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWVLWHRSHUDWLRQVDUHERXQGWRKLWWKHSURGXFWLYLW\OLPLWLQOLQHZLWKDQ XQIDYRUDEOHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHFRPELQDWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV ,I WKH FOLHQW FDXVHV GHYLDWLRQV IURP WKH FRQWUDFWXDOO\ DJUHHG ZRUN LW ZRXOG KDYH WR DFFRXQWIRUKLJKHUDGGLWLRQDOFRVWVERWKLQWHUPVRIDFFHOHUDWLQJZRUNDQGH[WHQGLQJWKH FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
:RUN$FFHOHUDWLRQ
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
,QIOXHQFHRI3URMHFW/HDG7LPHDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URMHFW7DUJHWV
KLJKHUWKDQLIWKHFRQWUDFWRUKDVWREHDUWKHUHODWHGUHVSRQVLELOLW\7KLVODUJHO\GHSHQGVRQ WKHSDUW\E\ZKLFKWKHFRVWVVKRXOGEHERUQH,IWKHFOLHQWLVDWIDXOWWKH\ZLOODOVRKDYHWR FRYHUWKHFRVWV,IWKHUHDVRQVIRUDFFHOHUDWLRQDUHDWWULEXWDEOHWRWKHFRQWUDFWRUWKHUHODWHG FRVWVZLOOIDOOZLWKLQWKHLUVSKHUHRIUHVSRQVLELOLW\,IWKHFRQWUDFWRUKDVWRFDUU\WKHFRVWV WKHPVHOYHVLWLVRQO\QDWXUDOWKDWWKH\ZLOOPDNHDQHYHQJUHDWHUHIIRUWWRDFKLHYHWKHPRVW HFRQRPLFDOFRPELQDWLRQRISURGXFWLRQIDFWRUVWKURXJKRSWLPL]DWLRQLQRUGHUWRNHHSWKH FRVWVLQFXUUHGDVORZDVSRVVLEOH
([WHQVLRQRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPH
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
&UHGLEOH&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPH
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
&UHGLEOH&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPH
&DOFXODEOH %LQGLQJ 7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW EDVLV IRU D FUHGLEOH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VFKHGXOH LV D FUHGLEOH SURFHVV VFKHGXOH )LJ VKRZV NH\ IHDWXUHV RI WKH DERYH ILYH HVVHQWLDO DWWULEXWHV WKDW FKDUDFWHUL]H D FUHGLEOHFRQVWUXFWLRQVFKHGXOH
3UHUHTXLVLWHVIRUDFUHGLEOH FRQVWUXFWLRQVFKHGXOH 3ODXVLEOH
5HOLDEOH
&RPSOHWH
&DOFXODEOH
%LQGLQJ
7HFKQLFDOO\IHDVLEOH )HDVLEOHIURPD FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQWSHUVSHFWLYH 3HUPLVVLEOHXQGHUODERU ODZ 3HUPLVVLEOHXQGHU DSSURYDOUHODWHG OHJLVODWLRQ 3URFHVVHVDUHVXSSRUWHG E\FRQVXPSWLRQUDWHV 3URFHVVHVDUHVXSSRUWHG E\SHUIRUPDQFHUDWHV 1RXQGHUUXQRIFULWLFDO DSSUR[LPDWLRQV 6HTXHQFLQJUHODWLRQVKLSV FDQEHLPSOHPHQWHG 3URGXFWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQUHVRXUFHV 7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH DVVRFLDWHGZLWKD FKDQFHULVNUDWLR WROHUDEOHIURPD FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQWYLHZSRLQW 3DUWLDOFRPSOHWLRQ SHULRGVIRUFRQWUDFWXDOO\ DJUHHGPLOHVWRQHVDUH DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWROHUDEOH FKDQFHULVNUDWLRV %UHDNGRZQRI SHUIRUPDQFHYDOXHVWR UDPSXSPDLQ FRQVWUXFWLRQDQGILQDO SKDVH
'HILQLWLRQRISODXVLEOH F\FOHWLPHV 3ODXVLELOLW\RISURFHVVHV RQFULWLFDOSDWK 6HTXHQFLQJUHODWLRQVKLSV FRQWDLQWHFKQRORJLFDO GHSHQGHQFLHV 6HTXHQFLQJUHODWLRQVKLSV FRQWDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQ SURFHVVGHSHQGHQFLHV 'HJUHHRIGHWDLOLV VXIILFLHQWIRULGHQWLI\LQJ WKHFULWLFDOSDWK 6LWHPRELOL]DWLRQLV DSSURSULDWHIRUWKH SODQQHGWRWDOSURMHFW GXUDWLRQ /RJLVWLFVLVDSSURSULDWH IRUWKHSODQQHGWRWDO SURMHFWGXUDWLRQ 5HVRXUFHXWLOL]DWLRQLV DSSURSULDWHIRUWKH SODQQHGWRWDOSURMHFW GXUDWLRQDQGIRUWKH RSWLRQVDYDLODEOHWRWKH FRQWUDFWRUVDQGWKHLU VXEFRQWUDFWRUV 4XDQWLWLHVDQGTXDOLW\RI UHVRXUFHXWLOL]DWLRQDUH DFKLHYDEOHIURPD FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQWSHUVSHFWLYH
&OLHQW¶VVSHFLILFDWLRQV PXVWEHDVVRFLDWHGZLWK DKLJKSUREDELOLW\RI RFFXUUHQFH TXDQWLWLHV TXDQWLW\GLVWULEXWLRQV TXDOLW\IHDWXUHV VXUURXQGLQJV FLUFXPVWDQFHVHWF .H\ SULPDU\DQG VHFRQGDU\ ZRUNLWHPV FDQEHLGHQWLILHGLQWKH LQGLFDWHGSURFHVV VHFWLRQV 3ODXVLEOHUHVRXUFHV DOORFDWHGWRWKHFULWLFDO SDWKDUHOLQNHGWR SURFHVVGXUDWLRQ SDUDPHWHUV &ULWLFDOSDWKLV KLJKOLJKWHG .H\VHTXHQFLQJ UHODWLRQVKLSVDUH LQGLFDWHG 3ULFLQJDVVXPSWLRQVDUH DSSURSULDWHIRU FRPSOHWLRQSHULRGVDQG VHTXHQFLQJUHODWLRQVKLSV
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
)LJ
7KHILYHHVVHQWLDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDFUHGLEOHFRQVWUXFWLRQVFKHGXOH
7KHVHUHTXLUHPHQWVDOVRDSSO\WRWKH³VKRXOGEH´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
,QIOXHQFHRI3URMHFW/HDG7LPHDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URMHFW7DUJHWV
GHQFLHV)RUH[DPSOHZLWKUHVSHFWWRLQWHUQDOGHSHQGHQFLHVWKHFRQWUDFWRUZRXOGQRWVWDUW WKH VXEVHTXHQW ZRUN LI WKLV ZHUH WR UHVXOW LQ ORVVHV RI SURGXFWLYLW\ RZLQJ WR PXWXDO REVWUXFWLRQVDQGLQVXIILFLHQWFUDQHFDSDFLW\ $V DQ H[DPSOH RI D WHFKQRORJLFDO GHSHQGHQF\ ZH UHIHU WR WKH UXOH WKDW D FOLPELQJ IRUPZRUN PD\ RQO\ EHPRYHGWR WKHQH[WFRQFUHWLQJVHFWLRQ RQFHDSUHYLRXVO\GHILQHG PLQLPXPFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKRIWKHFRQFUHWH XVXDOO\1PPð KDVEHHQUHDFKHG
([WHUQDOGHSHQGHQFLHV
7$5*(7
3URFHVV 3URFHVV 3
,QWHUQDOGHSHQGHQFLHV
&ULWLFDODSSUR[LPDWLRQ
$&78$/
'HSHQGHQFLHVVSHFLILFWRVWUXFWXUDOGHVLJQ 'HSHQGHQFLHVVSHFLILFWREXLOGLQJVHUYLFHV 'HSHQGHQFLHVVSHFLILFWRVHDOLQJZDWHUSURRILQJ 'HSHQGHQFLHVXQGHUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQFRQWUDFW 'HSHQGHQFLHVUHODWHGWRSHUPLWVDSSURYDOV /DERUODZGHSHQGHQFLHV 6DIHW\UHODWHGGHSHQGHQFLHV 'HSHQGHQFLHVUHODWHGWRSURMHFWDFFHSWDQFH :HDWKHUUHODWHGGHSHQGHQFLHV 'HSHQGHQFLHVUHODWHGWRFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH 4XDOLW\UHODWHGGHSHQGHQFLHV $YDLODELOLW\UHODWHGGHSHQGHQFLHV 'HSHQGHQFLHVUHODWHGWRSODQQLQJOHDGWLPHV 'HSHQGHQFLHVUHODWHGWRSUHIDEULFDWLRQ
&KDQJHGVHTXHQFLQJUHODWLRQVKLSV FKDQJHGSHULRGV
3URFHVV
7HFKQRORJLFDOGHSHQGHQFLHV &RQVWUXFWLRQUHODWHGGHSHQGHQFLHV 6DIHW\UHODWHGGHSHQGHQFLHV /RJLVWLFVUHODWHGGHSHQGHQFLHV 2SWLPL]DWLRQUHODWHGGHSHQGHQFLHV 7UDGHGLVFLSOLQHVSHFLILFGHSHQGHQFLHV 'HSHQGHQFLHVVSHFLILFWRTXDQWLWLHVLQVWRFN $YDLODELOLW\UHODWHGGHSHQGHQFLHV TXDOLWDWLYH TXDQWLWDWLYH
3URFHVV 3 )LJ
3««3URFHVV
(IIHFWVRQVHTXHQFLQJUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQSURFHVVHV
7KH DVSHFW RI PHDQLQJIXOQHVV ZLOO GHSHQG RQ WKH SURFHVVHV RQ WKH FULWLFDO SDWK EHLQJ SODXVLEOH DQG RQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI D SURGXFWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ UHVRXUFHV DQG SURFHVVHV 7KH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VLWH DQG ORJLVWLFV FRQFHSW LV VXIILFLHQWO\ SODXVLEOH WR DOVR UHQGHUSODXVLEOHWKHWRWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHRULWVSRUWLRQV @ FDQEHTXDQWLILHGE\LQVHUWLQJ WKHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHΔ/&5'>@LQ(T Δ3/ '
Δ/&5 ' § · ⋅ © Δ/&5 '¹
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
/RVVRISURGXFWLYLW\RUODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVH>@
,QIOXHQFHRIFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
/&5± &RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVKRUWHQLQJ± +0HVWLPDWRU
/&5± &RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHH[WHQVLRQ± +0HVWLPDWRU
3/± &RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVKRUWHQLQJ± +0HVWLPDWRU 3/± &RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHH[WHQVLRQ± +0HVWLPDWRU
&KDQJHLQFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>@
)LJ
7UHQGRIODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHVDQGORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\±&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQ H[WHQVLRQDQGVKRUWHQLQJRIFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH±5HLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV
&I+RIVWDGOHU SI
,QIOXHQFHRI3URMHFW/HDG7LPHDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URMHFW7DUJHWV
,QWKHH[SHUWVXUYH\FRQGXFWHGE\Kummer/Hofstadler WKHH[SHUWV DVDPSOHRI UHVSRQGHQWV VWDWHGWKDWLIWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQSHULRGLVWRRVKRUWWKUHHORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\ XVXDOO\RFFXUVLPXOWDQHRXVO\7KLVUHVXOWLVEDVHGRQWKHPRGH PRVWIUHTXHQWPHQWLRQ REWDLQHGLQWKHFRXUVHRIWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV7KHPHGLDQZDVDOVRLGHQWLILHGWRFDXVH WKUHHGLIIHUHQWORVVHV VHH)LJ 1R
$
Q 0HGLDQ 0RGH 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP
)LJ
3DUDPHWHU
&RQVWUXFWLRQ WLPHWRRVKRUW %
!
&RQVWUXFWLRQ WLPHWRRORQJ &
'HVFULSWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIGDWDRQWKHQXPEHURISURGXFWLYLW\ORVVHVGXHWRH[FHVVLYHO\ VKRUWDQGORQJFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVLQEXLOGLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQ
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
,QIOXHQFHRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URGXFWLYLW\
1XPEHU RI PHQWLRQV >@
&RQVWUXFWLRQ WLPHWRR VKRUW
!
!
&RQVWUXFWLRQ WLPHWRR ORQJ
1XPEHURIORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\>@
)LJ
$YHUDJHQXPEHURIORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\RFFXUULQJVLPXOWDQHRXVO\LQEXLOGLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQ ±([FHHGLQJO\VKRUWDQGORQJFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHV
&RPSDULVRQZLWK3HUWLQHQW/LWHUDWXUH
,QWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQVZHFRPSDUHWKHTXDOLWDWLYHDQGTXDQWLWDWLYHVXUYH\UHVXOWVZLWK FXUUHQWDSSURDFKHVWDNHQIURPWKHOLWHUDWXUH
4XDOLWDWLYH&RPSDULVRQ
Hürlimann/Bucher LQGLFDWHDTXDOLWDWLYHUDQJHIRUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHZLWKLQZKLFKWKH FRVWV DUH PLQLPDO $ FRQVWUXFWLRQ SHULRG WKDW GLIIHUV RQO\ VOLJKWO\ IURP WKLV RSWLPDO GXUDWLRQZLOORQO\OHDGWRDPRGHUDWHFRVWLQFUHDVH$VXGGHQFRVW³OHDS´LVDOVRSRVVLEOHLI WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH LV VKRUWHQHG WRR PXFK 7KLV VKDUS LQFUHDVH FDQ EH FDXVHG IRU H[DPSOH E\ WKH QHHG IRU PXOWLVKLIW RSHUDWLRQ LQ WKH FDVH RI D VLJQLILFDQWO\ VKRUWHQHG FRQVWUXFWLRQSHULRG
&I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU D S &I+UOLPDQQ%XFKHU SI
,QIOXHQFHRI3URMHFW/HDG7LPHDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URMHFW7DUJHWV
Schach/Otto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arasek/DuveDUJXHWKDWWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVKRXOGEHGHWHUPLQHGWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQW WKHVSHFLILFFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHSURMHFWXQGHUVWXG\,QVRGRLQJDOOFLUFXPVWDQFHVVKRXOGEH FRQVLGHUHG WKDW ZRXOG DULVH LI WKH\ KDG DOVR RFFXUUHG IRU FRPSDUDEOH SURMHFWV DQG FRQWUDFWRUVVXFKDVDORQJGHOLYHU\WLPHIRUEXLOGLQJPDWHULDOV Karasek VWUHVVHV WKDW FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQW H[SHUWLVH LV FUXFLDO LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH Kropik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ropik DOVR VWDWHV WKH IROORZLQJ LQ UHODWLRQ WR VSHFLILHGWLPHV ³,IWLPHFRQVWUDLQWVEHFRPHWRRWLJKWWKLVZLOORIWHQUHVXOWLQXQQHFHVVDU\ UHPHGLDOZRUNLQODWHUSKDVHVDVZHOODVLQORVWWLPHDQGPRQH\DQGHYHQPRUHLPSRUW DQWO\ GLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ DPRQJ WKH SURMHFW VWDNHKROGHUV 6XIILFLHQW WLPH VKRXOG WKXV EH DOORWWHGWRWKHLQGLYLGXDOSURMHFWSKDVHV´ Roquette/Viering/Leupertz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
&I6FKDFK2WWR S &I.DUDVHN'XYH S &I.DUDVHN S &I.URSLN S I &I.URSLN S WUDQVODWLRQE\6WHIIHQ:DOWHU &I5RTXHWWH9LHULQJ/HXSHUW] S9,, &I5RTXHWWH9LHULQJ/HXSHUW] S
,QIOXHQFHRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URGXFWLYLW\
Hoffmann/Motzko/Corsten VWUHVVWKDWVXIILFLHQWWLPHPXVWEHPDGHDYDLODEOHE\WKHFOLHQW IRU WKH SUHSDUDWLRQ RI ELGV IRU WKH SUHSDUDWLRQ RI WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURFHVV DQG IRU WKH H[HFXWLRQ RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ ZRUN )DFWRUV WR EH FRQVLGHUHG ZKHQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH LQFOXGH VHDVRQDO HIIHFWV DQG VSHFLILF VLWH FRQGLWLRQV DV ZHOO DV RWKHU LQIOXHQWLDO IDFWRUV DQG GLIILFXOWLHV ([FHHGLQJO\ VKRUW FRQVWUXFWLRQ SHULRGV DQG EXLOGLQJ XQGHU XQIDYRUDEOH VHDVRQDO FRQGLWLRQV DUH SUREOHPDWLF DQG FDQ DGYHUVHO\ DIIHFW WKH SURMHFW Wolkerstorfer/Lang DUJXH WKDW ELG SULFHV FDQ RQO\ EH GHWHUPLQHG LQ D FRVWFRYHULQJ PDQQHU LI WKH VSHFLILFDWLRQ SUHSDUHG E\ WKH FOLHQW LQFOXGHV YHU\ GHWDLOHG DQG SUHFLVH TXDQWLWLHV DQG WLPHV IRU WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH ZRUN7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ SURYLGHG E\ WKH FOLHQWPXVWEHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDKLJKSUREDELOLW\RIRFFXUUHQFH ,QVXPPDU\WKHVWDWHPHQWVRIWKHDXWKRUVFLWHGDERYHVKRZDFOHDUUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH DQG FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVW RQ WKH RQH KDQGDQGEHWZHHQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH DQGEXLOGLQJTXDOLW\RQWKHRWKHU@
&KDQJHLQFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>@
)LJ
/RVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\±&RPSDULVRQRIWKHDSSURDFKHVRIOberndorferPetzschmannDQG Reister ZLWKWKHILQGLQJVRIWKHH[SHUWVXUYH\FRQGXFWHGE\Hofstadler
&RPSDULQJWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHH[SHUWVXUYH\ZLWKWKHOberndorfer OLPLWVKRZVWKDWWKHOLPLW GRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\DSSO\DQGWKDWKLJKHUORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\FDQDOVRRFFXU7KHOLPLWV VWDWHG E\ Petzschmann DSSHDU WR OLH ZLWKLQ D SODXVLEOH UDQJH 7KH UDQJHV GHILQHG E\ Reister DSSHDU WR EH IDLUO\ SODXVLEOH IURP D FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQW SHUVSHFWLYH GHSHQGLQJRQWKHH[WHQWRIFKDQJHVLQFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
4XDQWLWDWLYH&RPSDULVRQZLWKWKH6XUYH\FRQGXFWHGE\Kummer/ Hofstadler
)URP 'HFHPEHU WR 2FWREHU Kummer/Hofstadler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
&I+RIVWDGOHU S
,QIOXHQFHRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URGXFWLYLW\
7KHUHVXOWLQJFXUYHVZHUHWUDQVIHUUHGWRDGUDZLQJSURJUDP $XWR&$' DQGVFDOHGDFFRU GLQJO\ LQ RUGHU WR JHQHUDWH TXDQWLWDWLYH YDOXHV IRU WKH FRVW WUHQG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH VSHFLILHGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH)RUWKLVSXUSRVHWKHGHULYHGYDOXHVIRUDQH[FHHGLQJO\VKRUW DQGORQJFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHZHUHURXQGHGWRLQWHJHUYDOXHV VHH)LJ 1R
3DUDPHWHU
$
Q 0HDQ 6WDQGDUGHUURURIPHDQ 6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ &RHIILFLHQWRIYDULDWLRQ 0HGLDQ 0HDQDEVROXWHGHYLDWLRQ 5REXVWFRHIILFLHQWRIYDULDWLRQ EDVHGRQPHGLDQ 0RGH 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 6SUHDG 6NHZQHVV 0HVWLPDWRU + 6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ + 5REXVWFRHIILFLHQWRIYDULDWLRQ EDVHGRQ0HVWLPDWRU 1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ 6KDSLUR:LONS
7DEOH
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHWRRVKRUW UHGXFWLRQWRQRUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH %
1R
&
@
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVW>@
7R DVVHVV WKH FKDQJHV LQ WKH ZDJH SURSRUWLRQ IRXU GLIIHUHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH ZDJHVDQGWKH³2WKHU´FRPSRQHQWVDUHDSSOLHGWRWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVLQUHODWLRQWRWKH WUHQG7KH³2WKHU´LWHPFRPSULVHVWKHFRVWVRIHTXLSPHQWDQGPDWHULDOV
&KDQJHLQFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>@
)LJ
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWDQGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVH ±&RPSDULVRQRIWKHILQGLQJVRIWKH H[SHUWVXUYH\RIHofstadler ZLWKWKHH[SHUWVXUYH\RIKummer/Hofstadler
7KH IROORZLQJ ZDJH SURSRUWLRQV ZHUH XVHG DV D EDVLV IRU WKH GLDJUDP VR DV WR SURYLGH RSWLRQVIRUFRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWVZLWKGLIIHUHQWODERULQWHQVLWLHV :DJHSURSRUWLRQ :DJHSURSRUWLRQ :DJHSURSRUWLRQ :DJHSURSRUWLRQ )RUWKHVHOHFWHGZDJHSURSRUWLRQIRUH[DPSOHWKHYDOXHVRIWKHFXUYHUHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH³5HODWLRQVKLS±FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWDQGWLPH±0HVWLPDWRUWUHQGFXUYH±FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPHWRRVKRUW´DUHPXOWLSOLHGE\IRUWKHDUHDRIWKHVKRUWFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHDQGWKH FXUYHODEHOHG³5HODWLRQVKLS±FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWDQGWLPH±0HVWLPDWRUWUHQGFXUYH± ZDJH SURSRUWLRQ´ LV GHULYHG )RU WKH ORQJHU FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPHV WKH YDOXHV RI WKH FXUYH UHSUHVHQWLQJWKH³5HODWLRQVKLS±FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWDQGWLPH±0HVWLPDWRUWUHQGFXUYH± FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHWRRORQJ´DUHDOVRPXOWLSOLHGE\UHVXOWLQJLQWKH³5HODWLRQVKLS± FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWDQGWLPH±0HVWLPDWRUWUHQGFXUYH±ZDJHSURSRUWLRQ´FXUYHIRU WKHUDQJHIURPWRRQWKHDEVFLVVD
&ILELGS &I+RIVWDGOHU SII
6XPPDU\
7KHORZHVWFXUYHLQWKHGLDJUDPUHSUHVHQWVDZDJHSURSRUWLRQRI7KHFXUYHVGHULYHG IRUWKHGLIIHUHQWZDJHSURSRUWLRQVIRUWKHH[FHHGLQJO\VKRUWDQGORQJFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHV FDQEHFRPSDUHGGLUHFWO\ZLWKWKRVHIURPWKHHofstadlerVXUYH\ IRUWKHODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH LQFUHDVHV$W WKH VKRUW HQG D JRRG FRQVLVWHQF\ LV IRXQG XS WR D WLPHUHGXFWLRQ )RU H[WHQGHG FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPHV WKH FXUYH UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH LQFUHDVH FRQVLVWHQWO\UXQVDWDKLJKHUOHYHOWKDQWKHFXUYHVIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWZDJHSURSRUWLRQV
6XPPDU\
,WLVQRWRQO\WKHDQDO\VLVRI³FKDRWLF´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³QRUPDO´SHULRG)XUWKHUPRUH WKHHIIHFWVRIGHYLDWLRQVIURPWKH³QRUPDO´FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHRQFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWZHUH HYDOXDWHG :H FDQ DVVXPH D ³QRUPDO´ FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH LI WKH W\SH QXPEHU DQG FRPELQDWLRQ RI SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV DUH VXLWDEOH IRU LPSOHPHQWLQJ RQVLWH RSHUDWLRQV DFFRUGLQJ WR SODQ ZLWKRXW H[FHHGLQJ WKH WKUHVKROGV WR ORVVHV RI SURGXFWLYLW\$ QRWLRQDO VKRUWHQLQJ RI WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH VHHWKHLQWURGXFWLRQWRWKLVERRNIRUDQH[SODQDWLRQRIWKHFRQFHSWRI QRWLRQDO VKRUWHQLQJ ZLOO RFFXU LQ WKH ELG SKDVH RQO\ LI WKH FOLHQW GHSDUWV IURP WKH ³QRUPDO´ FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH FDOFXODWHG E\ WKH ELGGHU ,UUHVSHFWLYH RI WKH VSHFLILHG FRQVWUXFWLRQ SHULRG WKH ELGGHU ZLOO FDOFXODWH LWV FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH FRQVLGHUHG WR EH ³QRUPDO´ IURP D FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQW SHUVSHFWLYH DV DQ LQWHUQDO EHQFKPDUN IRU DVVHVVLQJWKHH[LVWLQJOHYHORISURGXFWLYLW\ 7KHEDVHOLQHGDWDIRUSUHVHQWLQJWKHLQWHUDFWLRQVZDVJDWKHUHGGLUHFWO\IURPFRQVWUXFWLRQ SUDFWLFH LQ WKH FRXUVH RI H[SHUW VXUYH\V ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKH DULWKPHWLF PHDQV UREXVW LQGLFDWRUVZHUHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJHuber’s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³QRUPDO´FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH ZLOOEHEHQHILFLDOIRUHDFKRIWKHSDUWLHV
,QIOXHQFHRI3URMHFW/HDG7LPHDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URMHFW7DUJHWV
WR WKH FRQWUDFW 2Q WKH RQH KDQG ZH FDQ H[SHFW D FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURFHVV ZLWK YHU\ IHZ GLVUXSWLRQV LI WKH FOLHQW VSHFLILHV D ³QRUPDO´ FRQVWUXFWLRQ SHULRG 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG ELGGHUV RU VXEVHTXHQW FRQWUDFWRUV FDQ EH KLJKO\ FRQILGHQW LQ EHLQJ DEOH WR XWLOL]H WKHLU SURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV DWWKHLU SODQQHG ³QRUPDO SURGXFWLYLW\´OHYHO LI D QRUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH LV VSHFLILHG $Q\ GLVUXSWLRQV FDQ EH RYHUFRPH PRUH HDVLO\ FRPSDUHG WR D FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURFHVV WKDW KDG EHHQ GLVUXSWHG DOUHDG\ ZKHQ ZRUN FRPPHQFHG GXH WR DQ H[FHHGLQJO\VKRUWFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH7KHFOLHQWPXVWDOVRHQVXUHWKDWWKHSURMHFWGRFXPHQ WDWLRQLVRIDKLJKTXDOLW\±GHSHQGLQJRQVXIILFLHQWSURMHFWOHDGWLPH±HYHQEHIRUHWKH FRQWUDFWLVDZDUGHG ,QDQ\FDVHDFUHGLEOHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHZLOOFUHDWHWKHEDVLVIRUWKHFOLHQWWKHFRQWUDFWRU DQGWKHRWKHUSURMHFWVWDNHKROGHUVWRDFKLHYHWKHLUSURMHFWWDUJHWVWRJHWKHU
5HIHUHQFHV
%OHFNHQ 8GR 'LH 3URGXNWLRQV XQG .RVWHQWKHRULH LP LQVWDWLRQlUHQ %DXEHWULHE ,Q 'HU%DXEHWULHEVEHUDWHU+HIW :LHVEDGHQ%HUOLQ%DX9HUODJ *|OOHV +DQV /LQN 'RULV 2(1250%DXYHUWUDJ ± 3UD[LVNRPPHQWDU ± 2(1250 % 2(1250 % XQG GLH %9HUJ*9HUWUDJVEHVWLPPXQJHQ 9LHQQD$XVWULDQ6WDQGDUGVSOXV3XEOLVKLQJ ,6%1 +RIIPDQQ)ULHGULFK 0RW]NR&KULVWRSK &RUVWHQ%HUQKDUG $XIZDQGXQG.RVWHQ ]HLWJHPlHU6FKDOYHUIDKUHQ±UGHG1HX,VHQEXUJ=HLWWHFKQLN9HUODJ*PE+ ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU &DOFXODWLRQRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHIRU%XLOGLQJ3URMHFWV±$SSOLFDWLRQ RIWKH0RQWH&DUOR0HWKRGWR'HWHUPLQHWKH3HULRG5HTXLUHGIRU6KHOO&RQVWUXFWLRQ :RUNV ,Q )XOO 3DSHU 3URFHHGLQJV ± &,% :RUOG &RQJUHVV _ 0D\ 6DOIRUG4XD\V±8QLWHG.LQJGRP(GV %DUUHWW3HWHUHWDO,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RXQFLOIRU %XLOGLQJ &,% ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ 3URGXNWLYLWlW LP %DXEHWULHE ± %DXDEODXIVW|UXQJHQ XQG 3URGXNWLYLWlWVYHUOXVWH%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ E 0HWKRGHQ ]XU (UPLWWOXQJ YRQ /HEHQV]\NOXVNRVWHQ ,Q 1DFKKDOWLJ%DXHQPLW%HWRQ :HUNVWRIIXQG.RQVWUXNWLRQ%HWRQ*UD]¶±*UD]HU %HWRQNROORTXLXP 6HSWHPEHU (GV 1JX\HQ 9LHW 7XH 0D\GO 3HWHU )UH\WDJ%HUQKDUG 6DQWQHU*HUKDUG *UD]9HUODJGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHU VLWlW*UD] ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ )UDQ]O *HUDOG %HZHKUXQJVDUEHLWHQ LP %DXEHWULHE (G 9HUEDQGgVWHUUHLFKLVFKHU%LHJHXQG9HUOHJHWHFKQLN $XVWULDQ$VVRFLDWLRQIRU%HQGLQJ DQG,QVWDOODWLRQRI&RQFUHWH5HLQIRUFHPHQW ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU&KULVWLDQ .XPPHU0DUNXV 6\VWHPDWLVFKHU8PJDQJPLW3URGXNWLYLWlWV ULVLNHQ LQ GHU $XIWUDJVNDONXODWLRQ ,Q 7DJXQJVEDQG ± *UD]HU %DXEHWULHEV XQG %DXZLUWVFKDIWVV\PSRVLXP±5LVLNHQLP%DXYHUWUDJ±%DXEHWULHEOLFKHEDXZLUWVFKDIWOLFKH XQGUHFKWOLFKH$VSHNWH(GV +HFN'HWOHI 0DXHUKRIHU*RWWIULHG +RIVWDGOHU&KULVWLDQ *UD]9HUODJGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW*UD] ,6%1
5HIHUHQFHV
+RIVWDGOHU&KULVWLDQ .XPPHU0DUNXV D 5LVLNHQXQG&KDQFHQGHU0LVFKSUHLVNDO NXODWLRQ,Q 7DJXQJVEDQG±*UD]HU%DXEHWULHEVXQG%DXZLUWVFKDIWVV\PSRVLXP± 3UHLVHUPLWWOXQJXQG9HUJDEHLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW±%DXEHWULHEOLFKHEDXZLUWVFKDIWOLFKH XQG UHFKWOLFKH $VSHNWH (GV +HFN 'HWOHI 0DXHUKRIHU *RWWIULHG +RIVWDGOHU &KULVWLDQ *UD]9HUODJGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW*UD] ,6%1 +RIVWDGOHU&KULVWLDQ .XPPHU0DUNXV D &KDQFHQXQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU %DXZLUWVFKDIW±)U$XIWUDJJHEHUXQG$XIWUDJQHKPHULQ3URMHNWPDQDJHPHQW%DXEHWULHE XQG%DXZLUWVFKDIW%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU9HUODJ ,6%1 +UXVFKND-RKDQQ 'LH$QZHQGXQJGHV1RUPSURGXNWVLQGHU%DXEHWULHEVSODQXQJ (UOlXWHUW DP %HLVSLHO GHU 5RKEDXDUEHLWHQ LP +RFKEDX 'RFWRUDO WKHVLV 0XQLFK )DNXOWlWIU%DXZHVHQGHU7HFKQLVFKHQ+RFKVFKXOH0QFKHQ +UOLPDQQ 5RODQG %XFKHU -|UJ %DX]HLW XQG %DXDEODXI LP VFKZHL]HULVFKHQ %DXUHFKW,Q EDXDNWXHOO-DKUJDQJ+HIW1U-DQXDU\9LHQQD/LQGH 9HUODJ*HVPE+ ,661 .DUDVHN*HRUJ .RPPHQWDU]XU2(1250%±UGHG9LHQQD0DQ]¶VFKH 9HUODJVXQG8QLYHUVLWlWVEXFKKDQGOXQJ*PE+ ,6%1 .DUDVHN*HRUJ 'XYH+HOPXWK 'LH%DX]HLWLP%DXYHUWUDJ±GLHEDXUHFKWOLFKH XQG EDXZLUWVFKDIWOLFKH %HWUDFKWXQJ ,Q 7DJXQJVEDQG ± *UD]HU %DXEHWULHEV XQG %DXUHFKWVVHPLQDU ± 6SH]LHOOH 3UREOHPH GHV %DXYHUWUDJHV XQG GLH QHXH 2(1250 % (GV /HFKQHU+DQV +HFN'HWOHI*UD]9HUODJGHU7HFKQL VFKHQ8QLYHUVLWlW*UD] ,6%1 .URSLN$QGUHDV %DXYHUWUDJVXQG1DFKWUDJVPDQDJHPHQW3HUFKWROGVGRUI(LJHQ YHUODJ ,6%1 .XPPHU0DUNXV D $JJUHJLHUWH%HUFNVLFKWLJXQJYRQ3URGXNWLYLWlWVYHUOXVWHQEHL GHU(UPLWWOXQJYRQ%DXNRVWHQXQG%DX]HLWHQ±'HWHUPLQLVWLVFKHXQGSUREDELOLVWLVFKH %HWUDFKWXQJHQ 'RFWRUDO WKHVLV *UD] ,QVWLWXWH RI &RQVWUXFWLRQ 0DQDJHPHQW DQG (FRQRPLFV*UD]8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\ 0RW]NR&KULVWRSK %RVND(ULN (UPLWWOXQJYRQ$XIZDQGVZHUWHQEHL6FKDOXQJV DUEHLWHQ LP 6LFKWEHWRQEHUHLFK ,Q %DX3RUWDO ± )DFK]HLWVFKULIW GHU %HUXIVJHQRVVHQ VFKDIW GHU %DXZLUWVFKDIW %HUOLQ (ULFK 6FKPLGW9HUODJ *PE+ &R .* ,661 2EHUQGRUIHU :ROIJDQJ &ODLP 0DQDJHPHQW XQG DOWHUQDWLYH 6WUHLWEHLOHJXQJ LP %DXXQG$QODJHQYHUWUDJ±7HLO *UXQGODJHQXQG0HWKRGHQ±QGHG9LHQQD0$1= 9HUODJ ,6%1 2EHUQGRUIHU :ROIJDQJ -RGO +DQV *HRUJ HW DO +DQGZ|UWHUEXFK GHU %DXZLUW VFKDIW±219±QGHG9LHQQD21gVWHUUHLFKLVFKHV1RUPXQJVLQVWLWXW ,6%1 2(1250 % HGLWLRQ 3UHLVHUPLWWOXQJIU%DXOHLVWXQJHQ±9HUIDKUHQVQRUP 2(1250 % HGLWLRQ 9HUJDEH YRQ $XIWUlJHQ EHU /HLVWXQJHQ ± $XVVFKUHLEXQJ$QJHERW=XVFKODJ±9HUIDKUHQVQRUP 3HW]VFKPDQQ(EHUKDUG +DQGEXFKIU%DXLQJHQLHXUH±%DXYHUIDKUHQVWHFKQLNXQG %DXPDVFKLQHQHLQVDW]-DKUJDQJ+HIW(G 3HW]VFKPDQQ(EHUKDUG%UDQGHQEXU JLVFKH7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWlW&RWWEXV ,661
,QIOXHQFHRI3URMHFW/HDG7LPHDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPHRQ3URMHFW7DUJHWV
5HLVWHU'LUN 1DFKWUlJHEHLP%DXYHUWUDJ (UNHQQHQ±'RNXPHQWLHUHQ±$XIEDX 1HXZLHG:HUQHU9HUODJ ,6%1 5RTXHWWH$QGUHDV 9LHULQJ0DUNXV /HXSHUW]6WHIDQ +DQGEXFK%DX]HLW±QGHG &RORJQH:HUQHU9HUODJ ,6%1 6FKDFK 5DLQHU 2WWR -HQV %DXVWHOOHQHLQULFKWXQJ ± *UXQGODJHQ ± 3ODQXQJ ± 3UD[LVKLQZHLVH ± 9RUVFKULIWHQ XQG 5HJHOQ ± QG HG :LHVEDGHQ 9LHZHJ7HXEQHU 9HUODJ ,6%1 6SUDQ] 'LHWHU $UEHLWV]HLWHQ LP %DXEHWULHE ± (UPLWWOXQJ XQG $QZHQGXQJ EHL .DONXODWLRQ$UEHLWVYRUEHUHLWXQJ XQG /HLVWXQJVHQWORKQXQJ ± (LQH *HQDXLJNHLWV XQG :LUWVFKDIWOLFKNHLWVEHWUDFKWXQJ 6FKULIWHQUHLKH GHV ,QVWLWXWV IU %DXEHWULHEVOHKUH GHU 8QLYHUVLWlW6WXWWJDUW 7+ ±1U(G 'UHHV*HUKDUG:LHVEDGHQ%HUOLQ%DXYHUODJ *PE+ ,6%1 :RONHUVWRUIHU+HUEHUW /DQJ&KULVWLDQ 3UDNWLVFKH%DXNDONXODWLRQ±(UVWHOOHQGHU .DONXODWLRQVIRUPEOlWWHU JHPl 2(1250 % ± WK HG 9LHQQD /LQGH 9HUODJ ,6%1
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
7KLV FKDSWHU GHVFULEHV ZRUNHG H[DPSOHV IURP WKH FOLHQW¶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
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
,QWKHILUVWSURMHFWSKDVHWKHFOLHQWSHUIRUPVGHYHORSHURUSURMHFWGHYHORSPHQWFDOFXOD WLRQVDVZHOODVLQLWLDOSURMHFWLRQVRIWKHEXLOGLQJ¶VOLIHF\FOHFRVWV:HWKHQGHPRQVWUDWH WKHYDOXHWKDWVHOHFWHGXVHFDVHVRIWKH0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQPHWKRGFDQDGGIRUWKH FOLHQWZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHLUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDQGSURMHFWVSHFLILFDWLRQSURFHVVHV
'HYHORSHU&RVWLQJ
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© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 C. Hofstadler and M. Kummer, Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics, Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64014-9_9
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
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
&/
'HYHORSHU FRVWLQJ
,GHDO SURFHVV
33+ $ 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
33+ &
3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
%
33+
' 'HVLJQ
( $SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
) 'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
+ 3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQ
&OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
$ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
, +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ
)LJ
33+
33+ *
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV 'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV 33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
$OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
%DVLFV
7KHVLPSOHGHYHORSHUDQDO\VLVDLPVWRFOHDUO\VWUXFWXUHDQGEUHDNGRZQWKHWRWDOFRVWVRI LQYHVWLQJ LQ D FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURMHFW7KLV H[DPSOH H[FOXVLYHO\ FRQVLGHUV FRVWV LQFOXGLQJ DQFLOODU\LWHPVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKODQGSXUFKDVHFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGILQDQFLQJ$FFRUGLQJO\ WKLV DQDO\VLV GRHV QRW LQFOXGH WKH FRVWV RI RSHUDWLRQ PDLQWHQDQFH DQG GLVPDQWOLQJGHPROLWLRQ 2YHUDOO VL[ VXEDUHDV RI WKH GHYHORSHU DQDO\VLV DUH H[DPLQHG DQG DGGHG XS LQ RUGHU WR DUULYHDWWKHWRWDOFRVW
/DQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWV 6LWHSUHSDUDWLRQFRVWV &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV $QFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHHV )LQDQFLQJFRVWV
&I*ODWWH SII &I'LHGHULFKV SII %DVHGRQDQH[DPSOHE\/HFKQHU SII ,Q WKLV FRQWH[W WKH FRQFHSW RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV UHIHUV WR WKH FRVWV RI WKH EXLOGLQJ RU VWUXFWXUH DV VSHFLILHG LQ 2(1250 % S7KH\FRPSULVHWKHVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQVHUYLFHVDQGXWLOLWLHVDQGILQLVKLQJFRPSR QHQWV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
7DVN
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
0RGHOLQJ
&RVWFRPSRQHQWVDUHFDOFXODWHGLQGHSHQGHQWO\RIRQHDQRWKHU)RUHDFKRIWKHVHFRPSR QHQWV WKH FDOFXODWLRQ VHTXHQFH RU IORZ LV DOVR VKRZQ VHSDUDWHO\ LQ RUGHU WR HQVXUH HIIHFWLYH JXLGDQFH DQG WR HQKDQFH WKH SODXVLELOLW\ RI FDOFXODWLRQ VWHSV 8QFHUWDLQ LQSXW SDUDPHWHUVDUHUHSUHVHQWHGE\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVZKHUHDVGHWHUPLQLVWLFLQSXWVDSSHDU DVDUURZV,QWKHILJXUHVERWKLQWHUPHGLDWHDQGILQDOUHVXOWVDUHVKRZQDVKLVWRJUDPV
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
3ORWVL]H
&RVWRIODQG
3ORWVL]H
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
1RWDUL]DWLRQ DQGFRXUWIHHV
&RVWRIODQG
/DQGDFTXLVLWLRQ FRVWV
/DQGSULFHSHU Pð
&RVWRIODQG
5HDOHVWDWH DJHQW V FRPPLVVLRQ
5HDOHVWDWH WD[
1RWDUL]DWLRQ DQGFRXUWIHHV
3URSRUWLRQRI QRWDUL]DWLRQ DQGFRXUWIHHV
5HDOHVWDWHWD[ HQWU\LQODQG UHJLVWU\
/DQGSULFHSHU Pð
5HDOHVWDWH DJHQW V FRPPLVVLRQ
3URSRUWLRQRI UHDOHVWDWHWD[ 3URSRUWLRQRI DJHQW V FRPPLVVLRQ &RVWRIODQG 7RWDO
/DQG DFTXLVLWLRQ FRVWV
)LJ
&DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUW±/DQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWV
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
/DQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWV /DQG DFTXLVLWLRQ FRVWV LQFOXGH WKH FRVW RI WKH ODQG LWVHOI WKH FRVW RI QRWDUL]DWLRQ WKH FOHUN¶VIHHUHDOHVWDWHWD[ODQGUHJLVWU\IHHVDQGWKHUHDOHVWDWHDJHQW¶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
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
'HPROLWLRQ
&RVWRIVLWH SUHSDUDWLRQ
'HPROLWLRQ
)LJ
3ORWDFFHVV DQGXWLOLW\ FRQQHFWLRQV
'HFRQWDPL QDWLRQ
'HFRQWDPL QDWLRQ
3ORWDFFHVV DQGXWLOLW\ FRQQHFWLRQV
7UDQVIHURI ULJKWV
7UDQVIHURI ULJKWV
2WKHUFRVWV
2WKHUFRVWV
&RVWVRIVLWH SUHSDUDWLRQ
&DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUW±6LWHSUHSDUDWLRQFRVWV
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 'LUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVLQFOXGHWKHIROORZLQJFRVWFRPSRQHQWV &RVWVRIXVDEOHDUHDV 7RWDO& &RVWVRISDUNLQJVSDFHV 7RWDO& &RVWVRIRXWGRRUIDFLOLWLHVLQWHUQDOFLUFXODWLRQDQGDFFHVVPDUNHWLQJDQGUHQWDOFRVWV 7RWDO& 7KHWRWDORI&&DQG&LVHTXLYDOHQWWRWKHGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 7RWDO& 7KH SHUFHQWDJHDGGHGWR&WRDFFRXQWIRURWKHUFRVWVDQGFRQWLQJHQFLHVUHVXOWVLQ7RWDO& :H WKHQ REWDLQ WKH ³WRWDO RI GLUHFW FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV´ E\ DGGLQJ XS WKH & DQG & SRUWLRQV )LJ VKRZVWKHIORZFKDUWIRUWKLVFDOFXODWLRQ8QFHUWDLQLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVDUHUHSUH VHQWHG E\ WULDQJXODU GLVWULEXWLRQV ZKHUHDV GHWHUPLQLVWLF LQSXWV DSSHDU DV DUURZV 1R GLVWULEXWLRQ LV VKRZQ LQ WKH IORZ FKDUW VXFK DV ³2WKHU DUHDV´ LI WKH H[DPSOH GRHV QRW VSHFLI\FRVWVRILQGLYLGXDOSDUDPHWHUV
7KHFRVWVRILQWHUQDODFFHVVDQGFLUFXODWLRQDQGPDUNHWLQJFRVWVDUHQRWFRQVLGHUHGLQWKLVH[DPSOH 7KHDPRXQWSD\DEOHIRUWKHUHDOHVWDWHDJHQW¶VFRPPLVVLRQZDVSUHYLRXVO\DJUHHGWREHHTXLYDOHQWWRPRQWKO\UHQWV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
2IILFHVSDFH JURVVIORRU DUHD
&DOFXODWLRQ± 7RWDO&
2IILFHVSDFH JURVVIORRU DUHD
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
8QGHUJURXQG SDUNLQJ VSDFHV
&DOFXODWLRQ± 7RWDO&
8QGHUJURXQG SDUNLQJ VSDFHV
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
2XWGRRU IDFLOLWLHV
&DOFXODWLRQ± 7RWDO&
2XWGRRU IDFLOLWLHV
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± RIILFH VSDFH
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± RIILFH VSDFH
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± XQGHUJURXQG SDUNLQJVSDFHV
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± RXWGRRU IDFLOLWLHV
2WKHUSDUNLQJ VSDFHV
5HDOHVWDWH DJHQW¶VFRVWV± PRQWKO\UHQWV
7RWDO&
7RWDO&
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± RWKHU SDUNLQJVSDFHV
7RWDO&
7RWDO&
7RWDO&
7RWDO&
5HDOHVWDWH DJHQW¶VFRVWV ± FRPPLVVLRQ
5HDOHVWDWH DJHQW¶VFRVWV± PRQWKO\UHQWV
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± RWKHU IORRUVSDFH
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± RWKHU SDUNLQJVSDFHV
2WKHUSDUNLQJ VSDFHV
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± RXWGRRU IDFLOLWLHV
2WKHUIORRU VSDFH
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± XQGHUJURXQG SDUNLQJVSDFHV
&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV± RWKHU IORRUVSDFH
2WKHUIORRU VSDFH
5HDOHVWDWH DJHQW¶VFRVWV ± FRPPLVVLRQ
7RWDO
&DOFXODWLRQ± 7RWDOV &&DQGWRWDO GLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
)LJ
7RWDO&
2WKHUFRVWV
&RQWLQJHQFLHV
7RWDO&
7RWDO&
7RWDOGLUHFW FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
)ORZFKDUW±'LUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
$QFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV %HVLGHVGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVDQFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVPXVWDOVREHFRQVLGHUHGLQ WKH GHYHORSHU DQDO\VLV 7KHVH LQFOXGH IRU H[DPSOH WKH FRVWV RI LQVXUDQFH H[SHUW RSLQLRQVRUVXUYH\LQJ ,Q WKLV H[DPSOH DQFLOODU\ FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV DUH GHWHUPLQHG DV D SHUFHQWDJH RI GLUHFW FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV$GGLQJ XS GLUHFW DQG DQFLOODU\ FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV UHVXOWV LQ WKH WRWDO FRVWRIFRQVWUXFWLRQ VHH)LJ
,QSXWSDUDPHWHU
)LJ
7RWDOGLUHFW FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
$QFLOODU\ FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
&DOFXODWLRQ± DQFLOODU\ FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
7RWDOGLUHFW FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
&DOFXODWLRQ± FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
7RWDOGLUHFW FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
$QFLOODU\ FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
7RWDODQFLOODU\ FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
7RWDODQFLOODU\ FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
7RWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
)ORZFKDUW±$QFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVDQGWRWDOFRVWRIFRQVWUXFWLRQ
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHHV 3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHHVDUHDQRWKHUFRPSRQHQWWREHDGGHGWRODQGDFTXLVLWLRQDQGVLWH SUHSDUDWLRQFRVWV,QWKHZRUNHGH[DPSOHWKHVHIHHVDUHGHWHUPLQHGDVDSHUFHQWDJH WULDQ JXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ RIWKHWRWDOFRVWRIFRQVWUXFWLRQ VHH)LJ
,QSXWSDUDPHWHU
&DOFXODWLRQ± SURMHFW PDQDJHPHQWIHHV
)LJ
7RWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
7RWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
3URMHFW PDQDJHPHQW IHHV
3URMHFW PDQDJHPHQW IHHV
7RWDOSURMHFW PDQDJHPHQW IHHV
)ORZFKDUW±3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHHV
)LQDQFLQJFRVWV $GGLWLRQDO GHEW ILQDQFLQJ FRVWV DUH LQFXUUHG LI WKH FOLHQW LV XQDEOH WR SURYLGH WKH HQWLUH FRQVWUXFWLRQEXGJHWIURPWKHLURZQIXQGV
7RWDO FRVWRIODQG
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
'XUDWLRQ
,QWHUHVWUDWH
7RWDOVLWHSUHSDUDWLRQFRVWV 7RWDO &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
&DOFXODWLRQRILQWHUHVW IDFWRU
,QWHUHVWIDFWRU
&DOFXODWLRQ± 7RWDO(
,QWHUHVWUDWH
A
'XUDWLRQ
7RWDOFRVWRIODQG
,QWHUHVWIDFWRU
7RWDOFRVWRIODQG
)LQDQFLQJFRVWVRIODQG DFTXLVLWLRQ
7RWDOVLWHSUHSDUDWLRQFRVWV
,QWHUHVWIDFWRU
7RWDOVLWHSUHSDUDWLRQFRVWV
)LQDQFLQJFRVWVRIVLWH SUHSDUDWLRQ
7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
,QWHUHVWIDFWRU
7RWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
)LQDQFLQJFRVWVIRU RIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 7RWDO
7RWDO(
&DOFXODWLRQ± ILQDQFLQJ FRVWV RIWKHUHQWDOSKDVH
&DOFXODWLRQ ± ILQDQFLQJ FRVWV
)LJ
&RVWVRIWKH UHQWDOSKDVH
)LQDQFLQJFRVWVRIWKH UHQWDOSKDVH
,QWHUHVWIDFWRU
7RWDO(
&DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUW±)LQDQFLQJFRVWV
&RVWVRIWKH UHQWDOSKDVH
7RWDOILQDQFLQJFRVWV
)LQDQFLQJFRVWVRI WKHUHQWDOSKDVH
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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±FRQQHFWLRQRIXWLOLWLHV &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV $QFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHHV )LQDQFLQJFRVWV 6LQFHWKHSURSRUWLRQRIFRQWLQJHQF\FRVWVZDVDOUHDG\LQFOXGHGLQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV ZLWK SHUFHQWDJHV RI IHHV DQG DQFLOODU\ FRVWV DGGHG WKH FDWHJRU\ RI FRQWLQJHQFLHV UHVHUYHV LVQRWH[SOLFLWO\UHIHUUHGWRDWWKLVVWDJH )LJ VKRZVWKHIORZFKDUWIRUWKLVFDOFXODWLRQ7KHKLVWRJUDPVSUHYLRXVO\GHWHUPLQHG IRUWKHLQGLYLGXDOFRVWFRPSRQHQWVDUHXVHGDVLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
7RWDOODQG DFTXLVLWLRQ FRVWV
&DOFXODWLRQ± WRWDO FDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH
7RWDOODQG DFTXLVLWLRQ FRVWV
)LJ
7RWDOFRVWRI VLWH SUHSDUDWLRQ
7RWDOFRVWRI VLWH SUHSDUDWLRQ
7RWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
7RWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV
7RWDOSURMHFW PDQDJHPHQW IHH
7RWDOSURMHFW PDQDJHPHQW IHH
7RWDO ILQDQFLQJ FRVWV
7RWDO ILQDQFLQJ FRVWV
7RWDOFDSLWDO H[SHQGLWXUH
&DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUW±7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH
&DOFXODWLRQDQG,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI5HVXOWV
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
7KLVLVDJHQHUDODVVXPSWLRQDOWKRXJKFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKXQFHUWDLQWLHVZKLFKLVZK\WKHDPRXQWWR EHILQDQFHGZLOOFKDQJHLQHDFKLWHUDWLRQ$OWHUQDWLYHO\DYDLODEOHHTXLW\FRXOGEHLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRWKHFDOFXODWLRQDVD IL[HGYDOXH
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
VWLOOIUDXJKWZLWKXQFHUWDLQWLHV LWLVHVWLPDWHGEHWZHHQ¼DQG¼Pð7KHPRVW OLNHO\SULFHDPRXQWVWR¼Pð7KHODQGSXUFKDVHSULFH 5RZ LVGHILQHGDVDWULDQ JXODUGLVWULEXWLRQLQ&HOO( /DQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWV 1R
$PRXQWYDOXH
3DUDPHWHU
$
0,1
0267/,.(/
¼@
9DOXHV[A
7RWDOODQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWV >¼@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV ¼
+LVWRJUDP±/DQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWV
7KHFXUYHRIWKHKLVWRJUDPRIODQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWVLVHVVHQWLDOO\GHWHUPLQHGE\WKHWULDQ JXODUGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHODQGSULFHSHUVTXDUHPHWHURUXOWLPDWHO\E\WKHFRVWRIWKHODQG 7KHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHFRVWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKODQGDFTXLVLWLRQLVUHODWLYHO\VPDOOFRPSDUHG WRWKHFRVWRIODQGDVVXFKDQGWKXVKDUGO\LQIOXHQFHVWKHFXUYHRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQ/DQG DFTXLVLWLRQFRVWV OLH EHWZHHQ DSSUR[ ¼PLOOLRQ DQG ¼PLOOLRQ7KHPHDQ RI WKH KLVWRJUDPDPRXQWVWRDSSUR[¼ PLOOLRQ 6LWHSUHSDUDWLRQ±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
3DUDPHWHU
$
'HPROLWLRQ
'HFRQWDPLQDWLRQ
3ORWDFFHVVDQGXWLOLW\FRQQHFWLRQV
7UDQVIHURIULJKWV
2WKHUFRVWV
7RWDO FRVWVRIVLWHSUHSDUDWLRQ
7DEOH
0,1 %
¼
$PRXQWYDOXH 0267/,.(/< 0$; &
¼
'
¼
'LVWULEXWLRQ (
¼ ¼ ¼
¼
&DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±6LWHSUHSDUDWLRQFRVWV
¼
¼
¼ ¼ ¼
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
:HREWDLQWKHWRWDOFRVWRIVLWHSUHSDUDWLRQDVDKLVWRJUDPLQ&HOO(RI7DEOH 7KLV KLVWRJUDPLVVKRZQLQ)LJ 7KHPHDQDPRXQWVWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\¼DQG RIDOOFDVHVOLHURXJKO\EHWZHHQ¼DQG¼
7RWDOFRVWVRIVLWHSUHSDUDWLRQ>¼@
9DOXHV[A
7RWDOFRVWVRIVLWH SUHSDUDWLRQ>¼@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
+LVWRJUDP±6LWHSUHSDUDWLRQFRVWV
'LUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 7DEOH LVXVHGIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHFRPSRQHQWVRIGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVZLWKWKHDLG RI0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQV&ROXPQV%&DQG'VKRZWKHPLQLPXPPRVWOLNHO\DQG PD[LPXPYDOXHV DVIDUDVWKHVHDUHDYDLODEOH IRUHDFKFDOFXODWLRQSDUDPHWHU7KHGHILQHG WULDQJXODU GLVWULEXWLRQV RI LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV RU WKH LQWHUPHGLDWH DQG ILQDO UHVXOWV DUH HQWHUHGLQ&ROXPQ( 7KHRIILFHVSDFH XVDEOHIORRUVSDFH UHODWHVWRWKHJURVVIORRUDUHD LWLVVKRZQLQ5RZRI 7DEOH 7KHFRUUHVSRQGLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVRIWKHRIILFHVSDFHFDQHLWKHUEHGHULYHG IURP H[SHULHQWLDO HYLGHQFH IURP FRPSOHWHG SURMHFWV RU YDOXHV VWDWHG LQ SHUWLQHQW OLWHUDWXUHVXFKDV%.,FDQEHUHIHUUHGWR 5RZV DQG SURYLGH WKH RSWLRQ RI LQFOXGLQJ DGGLWLRQDO DUHDV VXFK DV UHVLGHQWLDO RU ZDUHKRXVLQJ LQ WKH FRVWLQJ H[HUFLVH )XUWKHU URZV FDQ EH LQVHUWHG LQ WKH WDEOH IRU WKLV SXUSRVH
%DXNRVWHQLQIRUPDWLRQV]HQWUXP 'HXWVFKHU$UFKLWHNWHQNDPPHUQ %., &RQVWUXFWLRQ &RVW ,QIRUPDWLRQ &HQWHU RI WKH *HUPDQ&KDPEHUVRI$UFKLWHFWV $QRZQUHODWHGH[DPSOHLVLQFOXGHGLQ6HFWLRQ
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 1R
3DUDPHWHU
$
2IILFHVSDFH JURVVIORRUDUHD &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV±RIILFHVSDFH 2WKHUIORRUVSDFH &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV±RWKHUIORRU VSDFH 7RWDO& 8QGHUJURXQGSDUNLQJVSDFHV &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV±XQGHUJURXQG SDUNLQJVSDFHV 2WKHUSDUNLQJVSDFHV &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV±RWKHUSDUNLQJ VSDFHV 7RWDO& 2XWGRRUIDFLOLWLHV &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV±RXWGRRU IDFLOLWLHV 5HDOHVWDWHDJHQW VFRVWV±PRQWKO\ UHQWV 5HDOHVWDWHDJHQW VFRVWV± FRPPLVVLRQ 7RWDO& 7RWDO& &&& 2WKHUFRVWV &RQWLQJHQFLHV 7RWDO& 7RWDOGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
7DEOH
0,1
$PRXQWYDOXH 0267/,.(/< 0$;
%
Pð ¼ Pð
'LVWULEXWLRQ
&
'
(
Pð ¼Pð
Pð ¼Pð
Pð ¼Pð ¼ ¼
SFV
SFV
SFV
¼ SFV
¼SF
¼SF
¼SF
¼SF ¼ ¼
Pð
Pð
Pð
¼ Pð
¼ Pð
¼Pð
¼Pð
¼Pð
¼PR
¼PR
¼PR
¼PR
¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
PR
PR
&DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±'LUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
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¶ FRPPLVVLRQV ,Q DGGLWLRQ LW ZRXOG EH SODXVLEOH WR LQFOXGH WKH FRVWV RI LQWHUQDO DFFHVV DQG FLUFXODWLRQ PDUNHWLQJ HWF7KH RXWGRRU IDFLOLWLHV LQFOXGH DQ DUHD RI WRPð PRVWOLNHO\Pð DQGLQFXUHVWLPDWHGFRVWVEHWZHHQ¼ DQG¼Pð PRVWOLNHO\¼Pð 7KHDJHQW¶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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
VHZDJHPXQLFLSDOIHHVDQGFRQWLQJHQFLHV7KHSHUFHQWDJHVIRURWKHUFRVWV _ _ DQGFRQWLQJHQF\UHVHUYHV __ DUHHQWHUHGDVWULDQJXODUGLVWULEX WLRQVLQ5RZVDQG7KHVXPRIWKHVHPDUNXSV UHODWLYHWR7RWDO& LVJLYHQLQ&HOO ( 7RWDO& )LQDOO\&HOO(VKRZVWKHKLVWRJUDPRIWKHWRWDORIGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 7RWDO& 7RWDO& 7KHKLVWRJUDPLVVKRZQLQ)LJ $WLWHUDWLRQVLWLQFOXGHVDUDQJH IURP¼PLOOLRQWR¼PLOOLRQ7KHPHDQDPRXQWVWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\¼ PLOOLRQ ZKHUHDVWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQURXJKO\DPRXQWVWR¼
7RWDOGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV>¼@
9DOXHV[A
7RWDOGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV>¼@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDP±7RWDOGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
$QFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV ,QWKLVH[DPSOHDQFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVDUHH[SUHVVHGDVSHUFHQWDJHV __ RIWKHWRWDORIGLUHFWFRVWV &HOO(LQ7DEOH ±WKLVLVWKHKLVWRJUDPVKRZQLQ)LJ 7KHVHSHUFHQWDJHVDUHFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHPRGHOLQJH[HUFLVH $QFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 1R
7DEOH
3DUDPHWHU $
7RWDOGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV $QFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 7RWDODQFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV 7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
0,1 %
$PRXQWYDOXH 0267/,.(/< 0$; &
'
'LVWULEXWLRQ (
¼ ¼ ¼
&DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±7RWDODQFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVDQGWRWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
&HOO(VKRZVWKHDQFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVDVDKLVWRJUDP VHH)LJ 7KHPHDQ DPRXQWVWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\¼PLOOLRQZKHUHDVWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQURXJKO\DPRXQWV WR¼,QDERXWRIVLPXODWHGFDVHVDQDPRXQWRI¼PLOOLRQLVXQGHUUXQDQG DQDPRXQWRI¼ PLOOLRQLVH[FHHGHG
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
7RWDODQFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV>¼@
9DOXHV[A
7RWDODQFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV>¼@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDP±7RWDODQFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
&DOFXODWLQJWKHWRWDORIDQFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV &HOO( DQGGLUHFWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV &HOO ( UHVXOWV LQ WKH WRWDO FRVW RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ VKRZQ LQ &HOO ( )LJ VKRZV D KLVWRJUDPRIWKLVWRWDOFRVWZKLFKIRUPVWKHEDVLVIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQW IHH$V GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ )LJ DQ HVWLPDWHG EXGJHW RI ¼ PLOOLRQ LV VXIILFLHQW WR FRYHUDERXWRIVLPXODWHGFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWFDVHV)RUULVNPLWLJDWLRQSXUSRVHVWKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVW EXGJHW ZRXOG KDYH WR EH LQFUHDVHG IXUWKHU XQWLO WKH HQYLVDJHG FKDQFHULVNUDWLRLVUHDFKHG 7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV>¼@
9DOXHV[A
7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV>¼@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDP±7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHH ,QWKLVH[DPSOHWKHSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHHLVDOVRPRGHOHGLQWKHIRUPRISHUFHQWDJHV _ _ VHH5RZRI7DEOH ,WUHIHUVWRWKHWRWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVKRZQDVD KLVWRJUDPLQ)LJ
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHH 1R
3DUDPHWHU
$
%
7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHH 7RWDOSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHH
7DEOH
$PRXQWYDOXH 0267/,.(/< 0$;
0,1
'LVWULEXWLRQ
&
'
(
¼ ¼
&DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHH
7KHSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHHGHWHUPLQHGZLWKWKHDLGRID0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQLVJLYHQ LQ&HOO(RI7DEOH )LJ VKRZVWKHUHODWHGKLVWRJUDP$IWHULWHUDWLRQVWKH IHH PLQLPXP DPRXQWV WR DERXW ¼ ZKHUHDV WKH PD[LPXP HTXDOV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ ¼7KHPHDQDPRXQWVWRDERXW¼ 7RWDOSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHH>¼@
9DOXHV[A
7RWDOSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQW IHH>¼@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDP±7RWDOSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHH
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
7KHFDOFXODWLRQRIILQDQFLQJFRVWVLVEDVHGRQDGHWHUPLQLVWLFH[DPSOHIRUWKHYDOXHVWDNHQIURP5RZVWRRI7DEOH )LQDQFLQJFRVWVRIODQGDFTXLVLWLRQ ¼ ¼ A PRPR ¼ 0LQRUGHYLDWLRQVRFFXUGXULQJPDQXDOUHFDOFXODWLRQRZLQJWRWKHIDFWWKDWWKHLQWHUHVWUDWHDQGWKHGXUDWLRQLQFOXGHPRUH WKDQWZRGHFLPDOSODFHV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
)LQDQFLQJFRVWV 1R
3DUDPHWHU
$
7DEOH
7RWDOFRVWRIODQG 'XUDWLRQ ,QWHUHVWUDWH )LQDQFLQJFRVWVRIODQG DFTXLVLWLRQ 7RWDOVLWHSUHSDUDWLRQ 'XUDWLRQ ,QWHUHVWUDWH )LQDQFLQJFRVWVRIVLWH SUHSDUDWLRQ 7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 'XUDWLRQ ,QWHUHVWUDWH )LQDQFLQJFRVWVIRU RIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 7RWDO( &RVWVRIWKHUHQWDOSKDVH 'XUDWLRQ ,QWHUHVWUDWH )LQDQFLQJFRVWVRIWKHUHQWDO SKDVH 7RWDOILQDQFLQJFRVWV
0,1 %
PR
$PRXQWYDOXH 0267/,.(/< 0$; &
PR
'
PR
'LVWULEXWLRQ (
¼ PR ¼
PR
PR
PR
¼ PR
PR
¼ PR
¼ PR
PR
¼
PR
PR
PR
¼ ¼ PR ¼ ¼
&DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±)LQDQFLQJFRVWV
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¼ ZKHUHDV WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ URXJKO\ DPRXQWV WR ¼ ,Q RI VLPXODWHG FDVHV ILQDQFLQJ FRVWV URXJKO\ OLH EHWZHHQ ¼ DQG¼PLOOLRQ
7KHFDOFXODWLRQRIILQDQFLQJFRVWVIRUWKHUHQWDOSKDVHLVEDVHGRQDGHWHUPLQLVWLFH[DPSOHIRUWKHYDOXHVWDNHQIURP 5RZVWRRI7DEOH )LQDQFLQJFRVWVRIWKHUHQWDOSKDVH ¼ ¼ A PRPR ¼ 0LQRUGHYLDWLRQVRFFXUGXULQJPDQXDOUHFDOFXODWLRQRZLQJWRWKHIDFWWKDWWKHLQWHUHVWUDWHDQGWKHGXUDWLRQLQFOXGH PRUHWKDQWZRGHFLPDOSODFHV
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
7RWDOILQDQFLQJFRVWV>¼@
9DOXHV[A
7RWDOILQDQFLQJFRVWV>¼@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDP±7RWDOILQDQFLQJFRVWV
7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH 7DEOH LVXVHGIRUFDOFXODWLQJWRWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUHRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHKLVWRJUDPV SUHYLRXVO\GHULYHGIRUWKHLQGLYLGXDOFRVWFRPSRQHQWV&ROXPQV%&DQG'DUHHPSW\ EHFDXVH QR QHZ LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV DUH LQWURGXFHG LQ WKLV FDOFXODWLRQ VWHS 7RWDO FDSLWDO H[SHQGLWXUHLVVKRZQLQ&HOO( VHHWKHKLVWRJUDPLQ)LJ 7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH 1R
3DUDPHWHU
$
7DEOH
0,1
$PRXQWYDOXH 0267/,.(/< 0$;
%
7RWDOODQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWV 7RWDOFRVWRIVLWHSUHSDUDWLRQ 7RWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 7RWDOSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHH 7RWDOILQDQFLQJFRVWV 7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH
&
'
'LVWULEXWLRQ (
¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
&DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH
7KHKLVWRJUDPVKRZVDUDQJHEHWZHHQDSSUR[LPDWHO\¼PLOOLRQDQG¼PLOOLRQ 7KLVUHODWLYHO\ODUJHVSUHDGLVGXHWRWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVWKDWDUHLQHYLWDEO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWK WKH LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV LQ DQ HDUO\ SURMHFW SKDVH 33+ EHFDXVH RI WKH ODFN RI SURMHFW GHWDLOLQJ 7KHPHDQVKRZQLQWKHKLVWRJUDPDPRXQWVWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\¼PLOOLRQZKHUHDVWKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ URXJKO\ DPRXQWV WR ¼ PLOOLRQ ,Q RI VLPXODWHG FDVHV WRWDO FDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUHURXJKO\OLHVEHWZHHQ¼ DQG¼PLOOLRQ
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH>¼@
9DOXHV[A
7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH>¼@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDP±7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH
%HVLGHVVKRZLQJWKHVSUHDGDQGWKHSUREDELOLWLHVRIRFFXUUHQFHRIWRWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH DPRXQWV LW LV DOVR RI SDUWLFXODU LQWHUHVW WR LGHQWLI\ WKH LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV ZLWK WKH PRVW VLJQLILFDQWLQIOXHQFHRQWKHRXWSXW LHWRWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH 7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH>¼@ ,QSXWVUDQNHGE\HIIHFWRQRXWSXWPHDQ &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV±RIILFH VSDFH
¼
2IILFHVSDFH JURVVIORRUDUHD $QFLOODU\FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV±XQGHUJURXQG SDUNLQJ VSDFHV
¼
¼
¼
¼
¼
¼
¼
/DQGSULFHSHUPð
¼
3URMHFWPDQDJHPHQWIHH
¼
¼
,QWHUHVWUDWH
¼
¼
¼
&RQWLQJHQFLHV
¼
¼
8QGHUJURXQGSDUNLQJVSDFHV
¼
¼
'XUDWLRQ±UHQWDO SKDVH
¼
¼
%DVHOLQH ¼
7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH>¼@ 9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV ¼
)LJ
7RUQDGRGLDJUDP±7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH
)LJ LQFOXGHVDWRUQDGRGLDJUDPIRUWRWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH VHH6HFWLRQIRU PRUH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ KRZ WR LQWHUSUHW WRUQDGR GLDJUDPV 7KH WZR LQSXWV IRU WKH RIILFH VSDFHFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV 5RZLQ7DEOH DQGIRUWKHRIILFHVSDFHDVVXFK 5RZLQ 7DEOH KDYHWKHJUHDWHVWLQIOXHQFHRQWKHVSUHDGRIWRWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH,WLVWKXV UHFRPPHQGHGWRQDUURZWKHUDQJHRIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVLQRUGHUWRLPSOHPHQWFRVWVDYLQJV
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
RUWROLPLWWKHWRWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUHVSUHDG7KLVLVDFKLHYHGE\GHILQLQJTXDOLWDWLYHDQG TXDQWLWDWLYHIDFWRUVEXWZRXOGEHSRVVLEOHRQO\DWDVWDJHZKHQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFW KDVEHHQVSHFLILHGDQGGHVLJQHGLQJUHDWHUGHWDLO,QHDUO\SURMHFWSKDVHVKRZHYHULWLV DOUHDG\SRVVLEOHWRGHILQHIL[HGODQGSULFHVRUGHEWILQDQFLQJLQWHUHVWUDWHV,QDGGLWLRQWKH RIILFH VSDFH FDQ DOVR EH GHILQHG DV D GHWHUPLQLVWLF YDOXH LQ RUGHU WR IXUWKHU VSHFLI\ DQ LPSRUWDQWLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVWLOODVVRFLDWHGZLWKPDMRUXQFHUWDLQWLHV )RUFRPSDULVRQWKHVDPHFDOFXODWLRQZDVSHUIRUPHGIRUDVHFRQGWLPH7KHRQO\GLIIH UHQFHLVWKDWDGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXH LHPð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¼ PLOOLRQ WKH FKDQFHULVN UDWLR KDV VKLIWHG IURP DERXW WR WR DOPRVW D UDWLR7KLV PHDQV WKDW WKH WUHQG RI WKH FKDQFHULVN UDWLR ZDV UHYHUVHG VLPSO\ E\ GHILQLQJ WKH RIILFH VSDFH ZKLOH NHHSLQJ WKH EXGJHWFRQVWDQW$VDUHVXOWRIGHILQLQJDVSHFLILFRIILFHVSDFHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIXQGHU UXQQLQJ WKH EXGJHW RI ¼ PLOOLRQ KDV ULVHQ WR DERXW DQG WKXV EHFRPH URXJKO\ LGHQWLFDOWRWKHULVNRIH[FHHGLQJWKLVEXGJHW 7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH>¼@
7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH>¼@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
9DOXHV[A
7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH>¼@ )L[HGRIILFHVSDFH
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDP±7RWDOFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH±&RPSDULVRQ
%HQHILWIRUWKH&OLHQW
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
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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
/LIH&\FOH&RVW&RQVLGHUDWLRQV
,QLWLDOOLIHF\FOHDQDO\VHVDUHSHUIRUPHGDVHDUO\DVLQ3URMHFW3KDVH VHH)LJ DQG DUHWKHQSDUWRIDOOSURMHFWSKDVHV¼@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
+LVWRJUDP±1HWSUHVHQWYDOXH
,Q )LJ WKH VOLGHU KDV EHHQ VHWWR WKH OLPLW IRU D SURILWDEOH LQYHVWPHQW QHW SUHVHQW YDOXH ¼ DWWKHWRSRIWKHGLDJUDP2QO\WKLVGLYLVLRQRIWKHKLVWRJUDPDWDQHWSUHVHQW YDOXH RI ¼ UHYHDOV WKH FKDQFHULVN UDWLR RI DQ LQYHVWPHQW 7KH FKDQFH RI UHDFKLQJ D SRVLWLYH QHW SUHVHQW YDOXH DQG WKXV WR PDNH D SURILWDEOH LQYHVWPHQW DPRXQWV WR DERXW 7KHULVNWDNHQZLWKWKLVLQYHVWPHQWHTXDOVDERXW
%HQHILWIRUWKH&OLHQW
,QFRUSRUDWLQJWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVRIWKHLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVPDNHVLWSRVVLEOHWRLQGLFDWHWKHQHW SUHVHQWYDOXHUDQJH,IVHYHUDOLQYHVWPHQWRSSRUWXQLWLHVH[LVWLWLVSRVVLEOHWRFRPSDUHQRW RQO\WKHDVVRFLDWHGPHDQVDQGUDQJHVEXWDOVRWKHLUFKDQFHULVNUDWLRVWRHDFKRWKHU 6HQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VHVZLWKYDU\LQJLQFRPHDQGH[SHQVHOHYHOVRUFDSLWDOLQWHUHVWUDWHVDUH FDUULHG RXW DXWRPDWLFDOO\ E\ VHOHFWLQJ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQV IRU WKH LQSXWV DQG E\ SHUIRUPLQJD0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQ 7KH FOLHQW¶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
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
3URMHFW 3KDVH LQFOXGHV WKH GHVLJQ RI WKH SURMHFW )XQFWLRQDO UHTXLUHPHQWV DV ZHOO DV TXDOLWLHVDQGTXDQWLWLHVDUHWKXVVSHFLILHGDWWKLVVWDJH,QWKLVSKDVHWKHFOLHQWSHUIRUPV OLIHF\FOHFRVWDQDO\VHVDQGFRVWHVWLPDWHVRUFDOFXODWLRQV,QDGGLWLRQWKHSORWRIODQGWR
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
EHGHYHORSHGZLOOKDYHEHHQLGHQWLILHGE\WKLVWLPH3KDVHDOVRLQFOXGHVDVRLOVXUYH\RU DVVHVVPHQW EHFDXVH WKH VXEVRLO SUHVHQWV D PDMRU ULVN IDFWRU IRU ERWK WKH FOLHQW DQG WKH FRQWUDFWRU ,Q WKH IROORZLQJ SDUWV ZH GHPRQVWUDWH KRZ WKH 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQ PHWKRG LV HPSOR\HGLQWKHVHSDUWLFXODUXVHFDVHVZKLOHDOVRRXWOLQLQJWKHUHODWHGEHQHILWIRUWKHFOLHQW
/LIH&\FOH&RVW&DOFXODWLRQV
7KHXVHRI0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQVFDQV\VWHPDWLFDOO\DFFRXQWIRUXQFHUWDLQWLHVWKDWLQSXW YDULDEOHV DUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK 7KLV PHWKRG DOORZV XV WR FRQVLGHU YDU\LQJ DQWLFLSDWHG VHUYLFHOLYHVRIVWUXFWXUDOFRPSRQHQWVDQGGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVFDQEHDSSOLHGWRFRVWV UHKDELOLWDWLRQLQWHUYDOVDQG±ODVWEXWQRWOHDVW±WKHLPSXWHGLQWHUHVWUDWH,QWKHILHOGRI LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LQFRPH IURP URDG WROOV FDQ DOVR EH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH VLPXODWLRQ RI 333 PRGHOV 7KH VDPH LV WUXH IRU UHQWDO LQFRPH LQ EXLOGLQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQ 6XFK VLPXODWLRQV UHVXOW LQ KLVWRJUDPV WKDW SHUPLW FRQFOXVLRQV UHJDUGLQJ WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI RFFXUUHQFH RI VSHFLILFQHWSUHVHQWYDOXHVRQWKHEDVLVRILQSXWSDUDPHWHUV7KLVDSSURDFKDOORZVPRUH HIIHFWLYH DOORFDWLRQ RI GHWHUPLQLVWLF YDOXHV DQG WKHLU DVVHVVPHQW ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH FKDQFHULVNUDWLR,WGHOLYHUVDODUJHUDPRXQWRILQIRUPDWLRQZKLOHDOVRLQFUHDVLQJWKHOHYHO RIGHFLVLRQFRQILGHQFH 7KLV H[DPSOH RXWOLQHV D SRVVLEOH DSSURDFK WR WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ DQG ULVNEDVHG OLIHF\FOH FRVWLQJRIEULGJHV/LIHF\FOHFRVWDQDO\VHVEHORQJLQWKHSODQQLQJSKDVH 3URMHFW3KDVH VHH)LJ EXWWKH\DUHUHILQHGLQWKHIROORZLQJSKDVHVEHFDXVHWKHEDVLVRQZKLFK VXFK DQDO\VHV FDQ EH SHUIRUPHG EHFRPHV LQFUHDVLQJO\ GHWDLOHG DV D UHVXOW RI D PRUH VSHFLILFGHVLJQEULHILQFOXGLQJPDWHULDOVXVH U UHTXLUHPHQWVHWF
&/
/LIHF\FOHFRVW FDOFXODWLRQV
,GHDO SURFHVV
% 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
'HVLJQ
)
(
'
&
33+
33+
33+
33+ $
$SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQ
&OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
$ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
-
, +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ
)LJ
33+ +
*
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV 'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV 33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
$OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
%DVLFV
$Q\ FDOFXODWLRQ RI OLIHF\FOH FRVWV LQFOXGHV HOHPHQWV WKDW VWHP IURP FRVWLQJ DQG LQYHVWPHQWFDOFXOXV:KDWLVFUXFLDOIRUDUULYLQJDWVRXQGFRPSDULVRQVRIYDULRXVRSWLRQV LVWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHQXPEHUDQGW\SHRILQFOXGHGFDWHJRULHVRIFRVWVRIXVHDVZHOODV WKHTXDOLW\DQGFRPSOHWHQHVVRIWKHGDWDRQZKLFKWKHFDOFXODWLRQLVEDVHG
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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
&DOFXODWLRQRIWHUPLQDO &DOFXODWLRQRIQHW YDOXHIURPQHWSUHVHQW SUHVHQWYDOXHE\ YDOXHE\FRPSRXQGLQJ GLVFRXQWLQJ
7KHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHQHWSUHVHQWYDOXHPHWKRGSURYLGHVDGHWHUPLQLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQZKHUH HDFK FRPSXWDWLRQ VWHS UHVXOWV LQ RQO\ D VLQJOH QHW SUHVHQW YDOXH WKDW LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK PDQ\XQFHUWDLQWLHVZKLOHSHUPLWWLQJQRFRQFOXVLRQUHJDUGLQJWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVVHL]HGRU ULVNVWDNHQ,QIDFWWKLVVLQJOHYDOXHUHSUHVHQWVRQO\RQHRIPDQ\SRVVLEOHFRPELQDWLRQVRI LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV WKDW YDU\ ZLWKLQ UDQJHV 7KLV VLWXDWLRQ LV XQVDWLVIDFWRU\ IRU GHFLVLRQ PDNHUVEXWLWFDQEHUHFWLILHGE\DSSO\LQJSUREDELOLVWLFFRPSXWDWLRQPHWKRGV
)LJ
7LPH W
W
W
W
W
5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQQHWSUHVHQWYDOXHDQGWHUPLQDOYDOXH
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
,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHLPSXWHGLQWHUHVWUDWHLQIODWLRQLQGLFHVGHSHQGHQWRQFRVWJURXSVFDQDOVREHFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHQHW SUHVHQWYDOXHFDOFXODWLRQ7KLVLVQRWVKRZQLQWKHH[DPSOH
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
LQFXUUHG GXH WR WKH UHSDLU RI VSHFLILF VWUXFWXUDO FRPSRQHQWV$OO H[SHQVHV PDGH DIWHU W PXVW EH GLVFRXQWHG E\ HQWHULQJ WKHP LQ (T UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKH QHW SUHVHQW YDOXH UHODWLYHWRW WU UHIHUHQFHSRLQWLQWLPH $FFRUGLQJO\WKHWHUPLQDOYDOXHRIH[SHQVHVLVFDOFXODWHGE\FRPSRXQGLQJWKLVQHWSUHVHQW YDOXH VHH(T XSWRWKHWLPHW LHWKHHQGRIWKHSHULRGXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQ 1HW SUHVHQW YDOXHV DQG WHUPLQDO YDOXHV FDQ EH FDOFXODWHG IRU DQ\ SRLQW LQ WLPH E\ FRPSRXQGLQJDQGGLVFRXQWLQJ WKHLUJUDSKLFDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQLVDFXUYHRYHUWLPH 139 W ⋅ ( L L )
7HUPLQDOYDOXH
( 7 ± WU )
7
3HULRGXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQ
WU
5HIHUHQFHSRLQWLQWLPH
U
7DVN
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odl DQGUHIHUVWRWKH:LHQWDOEUFNH7KHVXEVWUXFWXUHRIWKLVEULGJHZDVEXLOWIURPFRQFUHWH WKH VNHOHWRQ VXSHUVWUXFWXUH FRQVLVWV RI UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH 7KH YDOXHV H[SHFWHG IRU FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWVDQGVHUYLFHOLYHVDUHOLVWHGLQ7DEOH 1R
&RPSRQHQW $
6XEVWUXFWXUH
6HUYLFHOLIH
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVW
0DLQWHQDQFHFRVW
'HPROLWLRQDQGDGPLQ
>\HDUV@
>¼@
>RIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVW@
>RIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVW@
%
&
'
(
6NHOHWRQ
(TXLSPHQW
(TXLSPHQW
7DEOH ([SHFWHGLQSXWYDOXHVIRUWKHOLIHF\FOHFRVWLQJH[HUFLVH
JodlXVHGDFRQVWDQWLQWHUHVWUDWHRIWRFRPSRXQGDQGGLVFRXQWH[SHQVHVRYHUWKH \HDUV 7R FDOFXODWH WRWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV LQ WKH VWULFWHU VHQVH DUH PXOWLSOLHG E\ WR WDNH DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ FRVWV LQWR DFFRXQW /LIHF\FOH FRVWV WHUPLQDO YDOXH DUHFDOFXODWHGIRUDVHUYLFHOLIHRI\HDUV'XULQJWKLVSHULRGSLHFHVRIHTXLSPHQW
&I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU E SII -RGO D DQG-RGO E
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
DUH UHSHDWHGO\ UHPRYHG DQG UHSODFHG VHH VHUYLFH OLYHV RI FRPSRQHQWV LQ &ROXPQ % RI 7DEOH 7KHFRVWVRIGHPROLWLRQUHPRYDOLQFOXGLQJDGPLQLVWUDWLRQFRVWVDPRXQWWR GHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXH RIUHOHYDQWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV,QDGGLWLRQYDU\LQJPDLQWHQDQFH FRVWVDUHLQFXUUHGHDFK\HDUIRUWKHLQGLYLGXDOVWUXFWXUDOFRPSRQHQWVZKLFKDUHVKRZQDV SHUFHQWDJHVRIWKHUHOHYDQWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVLQ&ROXPQ'
0RGHOLQJ
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
$
0,1
0267 /,.(/
\HDUV@
&RPSRQHQW
>¼@ 0,1
0267 /,.(/
LL 7 WU @6SUHDGVRIVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWVPHDQYDOXHVDQGRWKHUVWDWLVWLFDOYDULDEOHV FDQEHFRPSDUHGWRRQHDQRWKHUZKHQFRQVLGHULQJRWKHUSURMHFWRSWLRQVLQRUGHUWRDUULYH DW D FRQFOXVLRQ UHJDUGLQJ WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV DQG ULVNV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH LQGLYLGXDO RSWLRQV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
%HQHILWIRUWKH&OLHQW
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
6RLO6XUYH\
,QFRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWVWKHVLWH¶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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
6RLOVXUYH\
&/
,GHDO SURFHVV
33+ $ 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
33+
33+ (
'
&
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
%
'HVLJQ
$SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
) 'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
33+
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQ
&OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
-
, +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV
$ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
)LJ
33+ +
*
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV 'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV 33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
$OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
%DVLFV
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
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
&DVH$
&DVH% $YRLGDEOHULVN± &DQQRWEHGHPRQVWUDWHG XVLQJGHWHUPLQLVWLF PHWKRGV
$GGLWLRQDOFRVWV GXHWRVXEVRLOULVN 'LUHFWFRVW DQG DGGLWLRQDOFRVWGXHWR GHILFLHQFLHV
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRQWUDFW &RQWUDFWYROXPH /RZHU FRQWUDFWYROXPH GXH WR LQVXIILFLHQW VFRSHRIVXUYH\ DQG DEVHQW ULVNDVVHVVPHQW 6RLOVXUYH\ GHVLJQWHQGHULQJ
)LJ
$GGLWLRQDOFRVWV GXHWRVXEVRLOULVN 'LUHFWFRVW $ZDUGGLIIHUHQFH &DVH$ &DVH%
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRQWUDFW &RQWUDFWYROXPH +LJKHU FRQWUDFWYROXPH DVDUHVXOWRI DQDSSURSULDWHVXUYH\ DQGULVNDVVHVVPHQW
6RLOVXUYH\ GHVLJQWHQGHULQJ
9HU\RIWHQWKHDZDUG EHQHILWWKDWFDQEH JHQHUDWHGLQ&DVH$GXHWR LQDSSURSULDWHFRQWUDFWXDO SURYLVLRQVLVPLQXVFXOH FRPSDUHGWRWKHULVNDULVLQJ IRUWKHSDUWLHV
5LVNPLWLJDWLRQIRUWKHSDUWLHVWRWKHFRQWUDFW±&DVH$ /LPLWHGVXUYH\±&DVH% $GHTXDWH VXUYH\
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
8QLWSULFH>¼Pñ@
&RQWUDFWRU
³&RQWUDFWXDOO\VWDEOH XQLWSULFH´
&OLHQW
&OLHQW
"
4XDQWLW\>Pñ@
)LJ
/LQNEHWZHHQTXDQWLW\XQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGVWDELOLW\RIXQLWSULFHV±4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
7DVN
$ FDOFXODWHG H[DPSOH GHPRQVWUDWHV WKH HIIHFWV WKDW DGGLWLRQDO FRVWV LQFXUUHG E\ D VRLO VXUYH\ ZLOO KDYH RQ WKH XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ VSHFLI\LQJ VRLO DQG FRQWDPLQDWLRQ FODVVHV DQG KRZWKHVHXQFHUWDLQWLHVZLOOVXEVHTXHQWO\DIIHFWWKHLWHPSULFH 7KH WRWDO H[FDYDWHG PDWHULDO DPRXQWV WR Pñ FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH YROXPH RI FRPSDFWVRLOZLWKRXWDSSO\LQJDGHFRPSDFWLRQIDFWRU ZKHUHWKHYDOXHVH[SHFWHGIRUVRLO DQGFRQWDPLQDWLRQFODVVHVDUHVWUXFWXUHGDVIROORZV 6RLOFODVVHV Pñ 6RLOFODVV Pñ 6RLOFODVV Pñ
&RQWDPLQDWLRQFODVV, &RQWDPLQDWLRQFODVV,, &RQWDPLQDWLRQFODVV,,, &RQWDPLQDWLRQFODVV,9
Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ
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
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
7KH FOLHQW LQWHQGV WR HDUPDUN D EXGJHW RI ¼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
0RGHOLQJ
7KH SUREDELOLVWLF FDOFXODWLRQ XVHV WKH 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQ PHWKRG WR YDU\ ERWK VSHFLILHGTXDQWLWLHVDQGXQLWSULFHVZLWKLQWKHH[SHFWHGUDQJHV)LJ VKRZVWKHIORZ FKDUWIRUWKLVFDOFXODWLRQ
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
6&
6&
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
&DOFXODWLRQ ± 4VRLO
6&
83
&DOFXODWLRQ ± ,36&
6&
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
&&,
&DOFXODWLRQ ± ,3&&
&&,
83,
,3&&
3WRWDO
83
6&
83
83,
6&
&&,,
83
83,,
,36&
3H[FDYDWLRQ
3VXUYH\
4VRLO
83WRWDO
6&
6&
4VRLO
83
83,,
&&,,
6&
&&,,,
&&,,,
83
36&
83,,,
&&,9
83,,,
&&,9
83,9
83,9
3&&
3WRWDO
&DOFXODWLRQ ± 3H[FDYDWLRQ3WRWDO DQG 83WRWDO
)LJ
&DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUWIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHXQLWSULFHRIH[FDYDWHGPDWHULDO
7KH TXDQWLW\ SURSRUWLRQV RI VRLO FODVVHV 6& DQG FRQWDPLQDWLRQ FODVVHV && DUH GLUHFWO\ WUDQVODWHGLQWRWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQV7KHXQLWSULFHV83DUHREWDLQHGIURPWKHWULDQJXODU GLVWULEXWLRQVRIWKHEDVLFXQLWSULFHV QRWVKRZQLQ)LJ SOXVWKHSHUFHQWDJHPDUNXSV
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
QRWLQFOXGHGLQ)LJ HLWKHU WKDWDUHDOVRPRGHOHGDVWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQV7KLVLV ZK\WKHXQLWSULFHV83LQ)LJ DUHV\PEROLFDOO\UHSUHVHQWHGE\KLVWRJUDPVUDWKHUWKDQ WULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQV 7KHUHVXOWVRIWKH0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQDUHVKRZQDVKLVWRJUDPV7KXVWKH\DOVRSHUPLW FRQFOXVLRQVUHJDUGLQJWKHUDQJHVDQGSUREDELOLWLHVRIVSHFLILFGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXHV
&DOFXODWLRQDQG,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI5HVXOWV
7KUHHFDVHVZLWKGLIIHUHQWUDQJHVRITXDQWLW\GHYLDWLRQVDQGSHUFHQWDJHPDUNXSVRQXQLW SULFHVDVZHOODVGLIIHUHQWVRLOVXUYH\SULFHVDUHHYDOXDWHGIRUWKHSXUSRVHRIWKHFDOFXOD WLRQV 6RLOVXUYH\SULFHVDUHUHSUHVHQWHGE\WULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQVDVLQGLFDWHGLQ7DEOH &ROXPQ&VKRZVWKHPRVWOLNHO\YDOXHVZKHUHDV&ROXPQV%DQG'VWDWHWKHPLQLPXP DQG PD[LPXP VRLO VXUYH\ SULFHV ,Q HDFK FDVH WKH UDQJH DURXQG WKH PRVW OLNHO\ YDOXH UHDFKHV 6XUYH\SULFHV>¼@ 1R
&DVH
$
&DVH &DVH &DVH
0,1
0267 /,.(/
¼Pñ@ 0,1
0267/,.(/
¼@ +
0$;
4XDQWLW\ >Pñ@
1RUPDOL]HG TXDQWLWLHV >Pñ@
'LVWULEXWLRQVRI LQFUHDVHGXQLWSULFHV >¼Pñ@
3ULFHSHUFODVV >¼@
7RWDO
3ULFH±&DVH 3ULFHRIVXUYH\
7RWDOSULFH±&DVH
8QLWSULFH±&DVH
'LVWULEXWLRQVRI LQFUHDVHGXQLWSULFHV >¼Pñ@
, ,, ,,, ,9
0267/,.(/
Pñ@
4XDQWLWLHV>Pñ@ 0,1
4XDQWLW\ >Pñ@
7DEOH &DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±&DVH
$SHUFHQWDJHPDUNXSLVDGGHGWRWKHEDVLFXQLWSULFHVIRUWKHLQGLYLGXDOVRLODQGFRQWDPL QDWLRQ FODVVHV VHH 7DEOH 5RZV WR GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH VSHFLILF FDVH VHH 7DEOH 5RZVWR 7KHPDUNHGXSXQLWSULFHVDUHVKRZQLQ&ROXPQV*LQ7DEOHV WR 7KHVHSULFHLQFUHDVHVDUHLQWURGXFHGWRUHIOHFWWKHTXDQWLW\XQFHUWDLQWLHVDOVRRQ WKHPRQHWDU\OHYHO 4XDQWLWLHV>Pñ@ 1R
6RLOFODVVHV
$
7RWDO
1R
&RQWDPLQDWLRQ FODVVHV
0,1 %
0267/,.(/< &
0$; '
)
*
3ULFHSHUFODVV >¼@ +
0$;
4XDQWLW\ >Pñ@
1RUPDOL]HG TXDQWLWLHV >Pñ@
'LVWULEXWLRQVRI LQFUHDVHGXQLWSULFHV >¼Pñ@
3ULFHSHUFODVV >¼@
7RWDO
3ULFH±&DVH 3ULFHRIVXUYH\
7RWDOSULFH±&DVH
8QLWSULFH±&DVH
'LVWULEXWLRQVRI LQFUHDVHGXQLWSULFHV >¼Pñ@
, ,, ,,, ,9
0267/,.(/
Pñ@
4XDQWLWLHV>Pñ@ 0,1
4XDQWLW\ >Pñ@
7DEOH &DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±&DVH
7KHFDOFXODWLRQLVH[SODLQHGXVLQJDGHWHUPLQLVWLFH[DPSOHUHODWLYHWRWKHPRVWOLNHO\YDOXHV ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHPRVWOLNHO\EDVLFXQLWSULFHRIVRLOFODVVWKLVLVDVVRFLDWHGLQ&DVH DOVRUHODWLYHWRWKHPRVWOLNHO\ YDOXH ZLWKDQLQFUHDVHIURP¼Pñ &HOO&RI7DEOH WR¼Pñ> ¼Pñ @ 7KHPHDQYDOXHVRIWKHUHVSHFWLYHGLVWULEXWLRQVDUHHQWHUHGLQ&ROXPQ*RI7DEOHV WR
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
&ROXPQ+LQ7DEOHV WR PXOWLSOLHVWKHQRUPDOL]HGTXDQWLWLHVZLWKWKHPDUNHGXS XQLW SULFHV WR JHW WKH SULFHV SHU FODVV &HOOV + RU + FDOFXODWH WKH SULFH WRWDOV RI H[FDYDWLQJ WKH GLIIHUHQW VRLO FODVVHV RU SXWWLQJ WKH LQGLYLGXDO FRQWDPLQDWLRQ FODVVHV WR ODQGILOO &HOOV+VKRZWKHWRWDOSULFHV H[FOXGLQJWKHVRLOVXUYH\ SULFH IRUWKHWKUHHFDVHV,Q &HOOV+WKHDSSOLFDEOHVRLOVXUYH\SULFHLVDGGHGWRREWDLQWKHWRWDOSULFHSHUFDVHDVD KLVWRJUDP 4XDQWLWLHV>Pñ@ 1R
6RLOFODVVHV
1R
$
7RWDO &RQWDPLQDWLRQ FODVVHV
0,1 %
0267/,.(/< &
0$; '
)
*
3ULFHSHUFODVV >¼@ +
0$;
4XDQWLW\ >Pñ@
1RUPDOL]HG TXDQWLWLHV >Pñ@
'LVWULEXWLRQVRI LQFUHDVHGXQLWSULFHV >¼Pñ@
3ULFHSHUFODVV >¼@
7RWDO
3ULFH±&DVH 3ULFHRIVXUYH\
7RWDOSULFH±&DVH
8QLWSULFH±&DVH
'LVWULEXWLRQVRI LQFUHDVHGXQLWSULFHV >¼Pñ@
, ,, ,,, ,9
0267/,.(/
Pñ@
4XDQWLWLHV>Pñ@ 0,1
4XDQWLW\ >Pñ@
7DEOH &DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±&DVH
)LJ LQFOXGHVWKHWKUHHKLVWRJUDPVIRUWKHWRWDOSULFHV LQFOXGLQJVXUYH\ RIWKHWKUHH FDVHV,WEHFRPHVDEXQGDQWO\FOHDUWKDWDOLPLWHGVFRSHRIWKHVRLOVXUYH\ &DVH VKRXOG UHVXOWLQDVLJQLILFDQWO\ZLGHUWRWDOSULFHUDQJH7KHKLJKHUWKHDPRXQWLQYHVWHGLQVXUYH\ DFWLYLWLHVWKHQDUURZHUWKHVSUHDGRIUHVXOWVZLOOEH &DVH ,QDOOWKUHHKLVWRJUDPVWKH EXGJHWRI¼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¶V SHUVSHFWLYH EHFDXVH WKH UDQJH RI FDOFXODWHG WRWDO SULFHV LV WKH QDUURZHVW WKXV UHDFKLQJ WKH PRVW IDYRUDEOHFKDQFHULVNUDWLRZLWKWKHHDUPDUNHGEXGJHWRI¼
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
5LVN
&KDQFH
&DVH
9DOXHV[A
7RWDO SULFH±&DVH>¼@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
9DOXHVLQ7KRXVDQGV
&DVH
9DOXHV[A
7RWDO SULFH±&DVH>¼@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
9DOXHVLQ7KRXVDQGV
&DVH
9DOXHV[A
7RWDO SULFH±&DVH>¼@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ7KRXVDQGV
7RWDOSULFHKLVWRJUDPVIRUWKHWKUHHFDVHV
)RU DQ LQGHSWK DQDO\VLV WKH VXUYH\ SULFHV SHUFHQWDJHV RI TXDQWLW\ GHYLDWLRQV DQG SHUFHQWDJHPDUNXSVRQXQLWSULFHVFRXOGEHFRUUHODWHGWRHDFKRWKHUIRUHDFKRIWKHFDVHV FRQVLGHUHG$KLJKHUVXUYH\SULFHLVOLNHO\WRUHVXOWLQDQDUURZHUUDQJHRITXDQWLW\GHYLD WLRQVDQGXQLWSULFHPDUNXSV LHQHJDWLYHFRUUHODWLRQV $E\PDWUL[FDQEHFKRVHQDV
7KHRUHWLFDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVUHJDUGLQJWKHVHOHFWHGLQSXWSDUDPHWHUUDQJHVUHVXOWLQPLQLPXPDQGPD[LPXPWRWDOSULFHV WKDWOLHDERYHRUEHORZWKHH[WUHPHVRIWKHVLPXODWLRQ7KLVGLIIHUHQFHLVGXHWRWKHQRUPDOL]DWLRQRITXDQWLWLHV LWZDV GHVFULEHGLQGHWDLOLQ6HFWLRQ
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJFRUUHODWLRQPDWUL[IRUWKHWKUHHSDUDPHWHUV,QWKLVFDVHZHZRXOGKDYH WR GHILQH WKUHH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH TXDQWLW\ GHYLDWLRQ SHUFHQWDJHDQGWKHSHUFHQWDJHPDUNXSRQWKHXQLWSULFHVVKRXOGEHSRVLWLYHEHFDXVHWKH\ DUHGHSHQGHQWRQWKHVXUYH\PHWKRGDQGWKXVVKRZDVLPLODUSDWWHUQ RIVLPXOWDQHRXVO\ WDNLQJKLJKHURUORZHUYDOXHV ,Q WKLV H[DPSOH WKH UHOHYDQW LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV ZHUH PRGHOHG DV LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV ZLWKRXWFRUUHODWLRQV WRVLPSOLI\WKHFDOFXODWLRQ
%HQHILWIRUWKH&OLHQW
7KHFOLHQWFDQUHIHUWRWKHSUREDELOLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQVWRHYDOXDWHWKHFKDQFHULVNUDWLRWDNHQ ZLWKWKHHDUPDUNHGEXGJHW7KLVLQIRUPDWLRQLVYHU\LPSRUWDQWIRUWKHRYHUDOOEXGJHWLQJ H[HUFLVH DQG FRVW FHUWDLQW\ RI WKH SURMHFW 7KH WKUHH FDVHV FRQVLGHUHG DERYH SHUPLW WKH FRQFOXVLRQWKDW&DVHLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHPRVWIDYRUDEOHFRQGLWLRQVLQWKHJLYHQVHWXS $OWKRXJKWKHFOLHQWKDVWRDFFHSWKLJKHUVRLOVXUYH\SULFHVLQWKLVVFHQDULRWKHSUREDELOLW\ RIPHHWLQJWKHHDUPDUNHGEXGJHWRI¼LQFUHDVHV :KHQFRQVLGHULQJWKHWRWDOSULFHLQ&DVHZHILQGWKDWDVXUYH\OLPLWHGLQVFRSHVKRXOG UHVXOW LQ D YHU\ ZLGH UDQJH &RUUHVSRQGLQJO\ WKHUH LV RQO\ D YHU\ ORZ SUREDELOLW\ RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RIPHHWLQJ RUHYHQVWD\LQJEHORZ WKHVSHFLILHGEXGJHWRI¼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
&RVW(VWLPDWH&DOFXODWLRQ
3URMHFWUHODWHGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJLVHVVHQWLDOO\GHWHUPLQHGE\WKHH[SHFWHGFRVWV&RVWVDUH GLUHFWO\FRUUHODWHGWRVHOHFWHGTXDOLWLHVDQGTXDQWLWLHVDQGWRWKHWLPHDYDLODEOHIRUSURMHFW H[HFXWLRQ ,Q3URMHFW3KDVH VHH)LJ FRVWHVWLPDWHVRUFDOFXODWLRQVDUHEDVHGRQUHODWLYHO\ URXJKDSSUR[LPDWLRQVWRWKHEXLOGLQJGLPHQVLRQV EXLOGLQJEDVHGPHWKRGVRIHVWLPDWLQJ FRVWV RURQDGHVLJQEDVHGSURMHFWVWUXFWXUHLQWKHFDVHRIPRUHDFFXUDWHFRVWFDOFXODWLRQV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
&RVWHVWLPDWH FDOFXODWLRQ
&/
,GHDO SURFHVV
33+ $
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
% 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
33+ &
3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
33+
' 'HVLJQ
( $SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
) 'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
+ 3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQ
&OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
, +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV
$ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
)LJ
33+
33+ *
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV 'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV 33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
$OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
%DVLFV±%XGJHWLQJXVLQJ&RVW3DUDPHWHUV
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aukosteninformationszentrum Deutscher Architektenkammern GmbH %., &RQVWUXFWLRQ&RVW,QIRUPDWLRQ&HQWHURIWKH*HUPDQ&KDPEHUVRI$UFKLWHFWV LVNQRZQWR EHDSURYLGHURIUHIHUHQFHFRVWLQGLFDWRUV7KHFHQWHUPDLQWDLQVDGDWDEDVHWKDWFRQWDLQV FRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVIURP³VLPLODU´SURMHFWVWKDWFDQEHUHWULHYHGDQGDGMXVWHGWRWKHSURMHFW DW KDQG7KLV DSSURDFK LV FORVHO\ OLQNHG WR WKH LVVXH RI HQVXULQJ FRPSDUDELOLW\ EHFDXVH HDFKEXLOGLQJRUVWUXFWXUHLVXQLTXHLQLWVRZQULJKW
&I/HFKQHU/LHEHQDX S &I%OHFNHQHWDO SI &I/HFKQHU/LHEHQDX S
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
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aukosteninformationszentrum Deutscher Architektenkammern %., SURYLGHV LQGLFDWLYHYDOXHVIRUFRVWLQJEDVHGRQYDULRXVDVVXPSWLRQV VHH)LJ 7KHVHILJXUHV UHSUHVHQW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ DQDO\]HG GDWD FRPSLOHG IRU VHYHUDO EHQFKPDUN SURMHFWV WKDW ZHUH DQDO\]HGLQDGHILQHGZRUNIORZDIWHUFRPSOHWLRQ 'HSHQGLQJRQWKHOHYHORIDYDLODEOHLQIRUPDWLRQWKHVHFRVWLQGLFDWRUVFDQEHDSSOLHGWR GHULYHLQLWLDOFRVWFRQFOXVLRQVHYHQLQWKHDEVHQFHRIDSUHOLPLQDU\GHVLJQ,WVKRXOGEH QRWHG KRZHYHU WKDW XVLQJ PHDQ YDOXHV DORQH ZLOO QRW HQVXUH D VXIILFLHQWO\ DFFXUDWH FRVWLQJH[HUFLVH
)LJ
,QGLFDWRUVIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHFRVWRIDEXLOGLQJ FRVWJURXSVDQGDFFRUGLQJWR',1 ±0XOWLIDPLO\KRPHVZLWKPRUHWKDQGZHOOLQJXQLWVPHGLXPVWDQGDUG
7KHSURMHFWVRQZKLFKWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHVHFRVWLQGLFDWRUVLVEDVHGDUHDOVRVWDWHG ZLWKWKHLUFRPSOHWHVSUHDGIURPPLQLPXPWRPD[LPXPFRVWYDOXHVDVZHOODVZLWKDVWDWL VWLFDOO\GHWHUPLQHGUDQJH)LJ VKRZVDGLDJUDPZKHUHWKHVHYDOXHVDUHUHSUHVHQWHG
&ILELGS &I%OHFNHQHWDO SDQGI &I.DOXVFKHHWDO S I &ILELGS±&RVWV 'DWDDVRIWKHILUVWTXDUWHURIIHGHUDODYHUDJHLQFOXGLQJ9$7DW
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
E\ FRORUHG EDUV RU DUURZV (DFK RI WKH SRLQWV UHSUHVHQWV D FRVW YDOXH RI RQH RI WKH DQDO\]HGEHQFKPDUNSURSHUWLHV LHPXOWLIDPLO\KRPHVZLWKPRUHWKDQGZHOOLQJXQLWV PHGLXPVWDQGDUG
_
_
_
0HDQ
PLQ
PD[
IURP
WR
¼P *&9
_ _ _ _ _
¼P *)$
_ _ _ _ _ _
&RVWLQGLFDWRU
)LJ
_ _ _
¼P 8)6
,QGLFDWRUVIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHFRVWRIDEXLOGLQJ FRVWJURXSVDQGDFFRUGLQJWR ',1 ±0XOWLIDPLO\KRPHVZLWKPRUHWKDQGZHOOLQJXQLWVPHGLXPVWDQGDUG± EHQFKPDUNSURSHUWLHV
7KH%.,SURYLGHVQRWMXVWFRVWLQGLFDWRUVIRUEXLOGLQJEDVHGPHWKRGVVXFKDV*&9*)$ RU XVDEOH IORRU VSDFH 8)6 EXW DOVR UDQJHV RI FRVW LQGLFDWRUV VWUXFWXUHG LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWKWKHDUHDVRIZRUNRUVHUYLFHSURYLGHGLQWKHStandardleistungsbuch 6W/% 6WDQGDUG 6HUYLFHV%RRN VHH7DEOH 7KH ³IURPWR´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
6XSHUSRVLWLRQRISRLQWVRILGHQWLFDOFRVWLQGLFDWRUVLVSRVVLEOH &I.DOXVFKHHWDO S±&RVWV 'DWDDVRIWKHILUVWTXDUWHURIIHGHUDODYHUDJHLQFOXGLQJ9$7DW &ILELGS &ILELGS I $FFRUGLQJWRWKH%.,LWLVQRWSRVVLEOHWRUHSOLFDWHWKHFDOFXODWLRQPHWKRGE\VWDQGDUG([FHOURXWLQHVEHFDXVHQHZ PHDQVZRXOGEHGHULYHGIRUHDFKRIWKHSDUWLDODUHDV DERYHDQGEHORZWKHPHDQ
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
$OWKRXJKDFRVWLQJH[HUFLVHSHUIRUPHGRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHFRVWLQGLFDWRUV LQWKHVHQVHRI EXGJHWLQJ FDQQRWUHSODFHWKHLWHPL]HGEUHDNGRZQRIFRVWVLQWKHLQGLYLGXDOZRUNDUHDVLW LV ZHOO VXLWHG IRU SODXVLELOLW\ FKHFNV RU URXJK FRVW DSSUR[LPDWLRQV IRU LQVWDQFH IRU WKH SXUSRVHRIVXEPLWWLQJDORDQRUPRUWJDJHUHTXHVW
1R
:$
$
%
6DIHW\DQGVHFXULW\VLWHIDFLOLWLHVLQFO (DUWKZRUNV &XVWRPFLYLOZRUNVLQFO 'UDLQDJHFKDQQHOVLQFO 'UDLQDJHZRUNV 0DVRQU\ZRUNV &RQFUHWHZRUNV 1DWXUDODQGFDVWVWRQHZRUNV &DUSHQWU\DQGWLPEHUFRQVWUXFWLRQ 6WHHOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV 6HDOLQJZRUNV 5RRILQJ 5RRIVHDOLQJ 3OXPELQJZRUNV 6KHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQ 5HQGHUDQGVWXFFRKHDWLQVXODWLRQV\VWHPV 7LOLQJ 6FUHHGOD\LQJ :LQGRZVH[WHUQDOGRRUVLQFO -RLQHU\ 3DUTXHWDQGZRRGEORFNIORRULQJV :LQGRZVKXWWHUV 0HWDOZRUNVLQFO 3DLQWGHFRUDWLRQZRUNVLQFO )ORRUFRYHULQJV 9HQWLODWHGFXUWDLQIDo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
¼Pð*)$
:RUNRUVHUYLFHDUHDV
RI
IURP
0HDQ
WR
IURP
0HDQ
&
'
(
)
*
+
WR
7DEOH &RVWLQGLFDWRUVIRUZRUNRUVHUYLFHDUHDVDVGHILQHGLQWKHStandardleistungsbuch 6W/% 6WDQGDUG6HUYLFHV%RRN±EXLOGLQJFRVWVDFFRUGLQJWR',1 ±0XOWLIDPLO\KRPHVZLWK PRUHWKDQGZHOOLQJXQLWVPHGLXPVWDQGDUG
&ILELGS &I.DOXVFKHHWDO S±&RVWV 'DWDDVRIWKHILUVWTXDUWHURIIHGHUDODYHUDJHLQFOXGLQJ9$7DW
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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
6RXUFH (XURVWDW1HZ&URQRVGDWDEDVH
)LJ
UHJLRQDOIDFWRUVIRU(XURSH
7DVN
$FRVWHVWLPDWHRUFRVWLQJH[HUFLVHLVWREHSHUIRUPHGIRUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIDUHVLGHQWLDO EXLOGLQJZLWKVL[VWRULHVGZHOOLQJXQLWVDQGDQXQGHUJURXQGFDUSDUNZLWKVSDFHV
&RXUWHV\RI%.,$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG %.,%$8.267(13RVWHU VRXUFH (XURVWDW1HZ&URQRVGDWDEDVH 3OHDVHQRWHWKDWWKH(QJOLVKQRWDWLRQZRXOGXVHGHFLPDOSRLQWVLQVWHDGRIFRPPDV
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
EDVHPHQW XQLWV F\FOH VWDQGV DQG XWLOLW\ URRPV7KH SORW H[WHQGV RYHU DQ DUHD RI DERXW PðWKHJURVVIORRUDUHDRIWKHJURXQGIORRUOHYHODPRXQWVWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\Pð 7KHJURVVIORRUDUHDRIWKHEDVHPHQWLVDERXW Pð WKHEDVHPHQWOHYHOLVWKXVDERXW WLPHVODUJHUWKDQWKHJURXQGIORRU)RUWKHUHVLGHQWLDOEXLOGLQJZHREWDLQDWRWDOJURVV IORRUDUHDRIDERXWPð$SDUWPHQWVDUHDFFHVVHGYLDDJDOOHU\)LJ VKRZVWKH OD\RXWSODQRIWKHQHZEXLOGLQJ $µ
$
)LJ
/D\RXWSODQ±5HVLGHQWLDOEXLOGLQJ
)LJ
$$މVHFWLRQ±5HVLGHQWLDOEXLOGLQJ
3ORWERXQGDU\
3ORWERXQGDU\
5HODWLYHWRWKHJURXQGOHYHOWKHEXLOGLQJLVDSSUR[LPDWHO\ PKLJK,WFRPSULVHVWKH JURXQGIORRUOHYHODQGILYHDGGLWLRQDOVWRULHVDVZHOODVDEDVHPHQWIORRU VHH)LJ 7KHIORRUWRIORRUKHLJKWLVDSSUR[LPDWHO\P
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
0RGHOLQJ
6LQFH WKH %., VRXUFHV VSHFLI\ FRVWV SHU ZRUN DUHD RQO\ DV PHDQ YDOXHV DQG ³IURPWR´ YDOXHV LHVSUHDGVRUUDQJHV DQ\SUREDELOLVWLFDQDO\VLVZLOOUHTXLUHWKHLUFRQYHUVLRQLQWR DGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ7KH VSHFLILHG UDQJHVKRZHYHUGRQRWSHUPLWGLUHFWFRQFOXVLRQV UHJDUGLQJWKHUHVSHFWLYHSUREDELOLWLHVDERYHDQGEHORZWKHPHDQV 3HUWLQHQW OLWHUDWXUH DQG SUHYLRXV DQDO\VHV LGHQWLILHG ULJKWVNHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQV IRU ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQUDWHVTXDQWLWLHVDQGFRVWYDOXHVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWV VHH6HFWLRQV DQG ,QDGGLWLRQWKH%.,XVHULQVWUXFWLRQVVWDWHWKDW³>@LQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQLQGXVWU\XSZDUG GHYLDWLRQVDUHPRUHSUREDEOHWKDQGRZQZDUGGHYLDWLRQV>«@´ %DVHGRQWKHDERYHFRQVLGHUDWLRQVLWDSSHDUVSODXVLEOHWRXVHULJKWVNHZHGGLVWULEXWLRQV IRUFRVWSDUDPHWHUV 6LQFH WKH FRPSOHWH GDWDEDVH RI UHIHUHQFH SURMHFWV LV HLWKHU QRW DYDLODEOH RU QHHGV WR EH UHTXHVWHG VHSDUDWHO\ ZH GHPRQVWUDWH DQ RSWLRQ RI FRPELQLQJ WKH WKUHH VSHFLILHG YDOXHV ZLWK WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV LQ RUGHU WR GHYHORS D GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQ RI FRVW SDUDPHWHUVZKLFKFDQWKHQEHXVHGIRUSUREDELOLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQV :HLQYHVWLJDWHGWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIFRQYHUWLQJWKH%.,FRVWSDUDPHWHUVLQWR3(57GLVWULEX WLRQVLQRUGHUWRNHHSWKHLQSXWSURFHVVDVVLPSOHDVSRVVLEOH7KLVGLVWULEXWLRQLVGHILQHG E\DPLQLPXP 0,1 PRVWOLNHO\DQGPD[LPXP 0$; YDOXH :HREWDLQWKHPHDQRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQE\DSSO\LQJ(T 09
0,1 ⋅ 0267/,.(/< 0$;
+RZHYHUWKH%.,SDUDPHWHUVLQFOXGHDPHDQYDOXH 09 LQVWHDGRIDPRVWOLNHO\YDOXH ZKLFKLVZK\WKLVPHDQQHHGVWREHFRQYHUWHGWRDPRVWOLNHO\YDOXH VHH(T 0267/,.(/
¼@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDP±7RWDOFRVW±5RXJKDQDO\VLV
&RVWFDOFXODWLRQ GHWDLOHGDQDO\VLV 7KHFRVWVRIWKHFDWHJRULHVUHVXOWLQJIURPWKHZRUNDUHDEUHDNGRZQ VHH7DEOH DUH XVHG IRU WKH FRVW FDOFXODWLRQ DW WKH GHWDLOHG DQDO\VLV VWDJH 7R EH DEOH WR HVWLPDWH WKH UDQJHV RI FRVW SDUDPHWHUV IRU WKH LQGLYLGXDO ZRUN DUHDV FRVWV PXVW EH FDOFXODWHG WR D JUHDWHU GHJUHH RI GHWDLO LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURMHFW HVSHFLDOO\ ZLWK UHJDUG WR TXDOLWLHV,QWKLVH[DPSOHZHDVVXPHWKDWZRUNVKDYHEHHQVFKHGXOHGIRUDOODUHDV7KLV
&DOFXODWLRQVLQFOXGH9$7DW EXWWKH\GRQRWFRQVLGHUUHJLRQDOIDFWRUV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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
1R
:$
%
3HUFHQWDJHDGMXVWPHQW RIVSUHDG>@
¼Pð*)$
:RUNRUVHUYLFHDUHDV IURP
0HDQ
&
'
WR
5HGXFWLRQ
,QFUHDVH
(
)
*
¼Pñ*)$$GMXVWHGYDOXHV 0,1
0$;
,
-
%HWD*HQHUDOGLVWULEXWLRQ ɲ
'LVWULEXWLRQ
/
0
$
6DIHW\DQGVHFXULW\VLWHIDFLOLWLHVLQFO
(DUWKZRUNV
&XVWRPFLYLOZRUNVLQFO
'UDLQDJHFKDQQHOVLQFO
'UDLQDJHZRUNV
0DVRQU\ZRUNV
&RQFUHWHZRUNV
1DWXUDODQGFDVWVWRQHZRUNV
&DUSHQWU\DQGWLPEHUFRQVWUXFWLRQ
6WHHOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV
6HDOLQJZRUNV
5RRILQJ
5RRIVHDOLQJ
.
ɲ
+
0HDQ
3OXPELQJZRUNV
5HQGHUDQGVWXFFRKHDWLQVXODWLRQV\VWHPV
7LOLQJ
6FUHHGOD\LQJ
:LQGRZVH[WHUQDOGRRUVLQFO
-RLQHU\
3DUTXHWDQGZRRGEORFNIORRULQJV
:LQGRZVKXWWHUV
0HWDOZRUNVLQFO
3DLQWGHFRUDWLRQZRUNVLQFO
)ORRUFRYHULQJV
9HQWLODWHGFXUWDLQIDoDGHV
'U\ZDOOV
6KHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQ
)LQLVKLQJ
+HDWVXSSO\V\VWHPVXWLOLW\V\VWHPVXQLWVLQFO
*DVDQGZDWHUVXSSO\V\VWHPVZRUNVLQFO
:DVWHZDWHUV\VWHPLQVWDOODWLRQSLSLQJ
*DVZDWHUZDVWHZDWHUIL[WXUHVDQGILWWLQJVLQFO
,QVXODWLRQRIXWLOLW\V\VWHPVXQLWV
)LUHH[WLQJXLVKLQJGHYLFHVDQGV\VWHPV
/LJKWQLQJSURWHFWLRQDQGHDUWKLQJV\VWHPV
0HGLXPYROWDJHV\VWHPV
/RZYROWDJHV\VWHPVLQFO
%DFNXSSRZHUVXSSO\
%XLOGLQJV\VWHPVHTXLSPHQW
/LJKWVDQGOXPLQDLUHVLQFO
(OHFWURDFRXVWLFV\VWHPVLQWHUFRPV
&RPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNVLQFO
$ODUPV\VWHPV
(OHYDWRUV
%XLOGLQJDXWRPDWLRQ
9HQWLODWLRQDQGDLUFRQGLWLRQLQJV\VWHPV
3DUDPHWHU
*URVVIORRUDUHD
7RWDOFRVW±'HWDLOHGDQDO\VLV
0,1
Pð*)$ 0267 /,.(/<
0$;
7DEOH &DOFXODWLRQWDEOH±&RVWFDOFXODWLRQ±'HWDLOHGDQDO\VLV
'LVWULEXWLRQ
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
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³IURP´ YDOXH LV DYDLODEOH EXW PHDQ DQG ³WR´ YDOXHV DUH VSHFLILHG :$OLJKWQLQJSURWHFWLRQDQGHDUWKLQJV\VWHPV±5RZ WKHPHDQLVDOVR ORZHUHGE\WKHVSHFLILHGSHUFHQWDJHZKHUHDVWKH³WR´YDOXHLVLQFUHDVHGDFFRUGLQJO\7KLV VWHSDJDLQOHDGVWRWKHWKUHHYDOXHVUHTXLUHGIRUGHILQLQJWKHEHWDJHQHUDOGLVWULEXWLRQ 6XFKDSURFHGXUHLVQRWSRVVLEOHLQ:RUN$UHDDODUPV\VWHPV 5RZ EHFDXVHERWK WKHPHDQDQGWKH³IURP´YDOXHHTXDO]HUR$3(57GLVWULEXWLRQ __¼Pð*)$ LVWKXV DSSOLHGWRWKLVFRVWSDUDPHWHU 6LPLODUO\WRWKHURXJKDQDO\VLVWKHJURVVIORRUDUHDLVUHSUHVHQWHGE\DWULDQJXODUGLVWUL EXWLRQLQWKHWRWDOFRVWFDOFXODWLRQ VHH5RZ 7KHWRWDOFRVWVREWDLQHGLQWKHGHWDLOHG DQDO\VLVDUHVKRZQDVDKLVWRJUDP VHH)LJ LQ&HOO0 7RWDOFRVW±'HWDLOHGDQDO\VLV>¼@
9DOXHV[A
7RWDO FRVW±'HWDLOHG DQDO\VLV>¼@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDP±7RWDOFRVW±'HWDLOHGDQDO\VLV
7KH WRWDO FRVW GLVWULEXWLRQ JHQHUDWHG IURP LWHUDWLRQV UDQJHV IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ ¼ PLOOLRQ WR ¼ PLOOLRQ ZKHUH RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO UHVXOWV OLH EHWZHHQ ¼ PLOOLRQDQG¼PLOOLRQ7KHPHDQRIWKHKLVWRJUDPDPRXQWVWRDSSUR[¼ PLOOLRQ )LJ FRPSDUHVWKHGHWDLOHGDQDO\VLVZLWKWKHURXJKDQDO\VLV:HILQGWKDWWKHWRWDOFRVW UDQJH LV ZLGHU LQ WKH GHWDLOHG DQDO\VLV VHH DOVR WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQV LQGLFDWLQJ WKH VSUHDG DOWKRXJK WKH SHUFHQWDJH DGMXVWPHQWV WR FRVW SDUDPHWHU OLPLWV DVVXPHG LQ WKH GHWDLOHGDQDO\VLVZHUHFRQVLVWHQWO\VPDOOHUWKDQLQWKHURXJKDQDO\VLV 7KLVLVGXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWDOWKRXJKWKHVXPRIWKHPHDQVREWDLQHGIRUWKHLQGLYLGXDOZRUN
7KHJURVVIORRUDUHDLVDVVXPHGWREHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKXQFHUWDLQWLHVDOVRDWWKHGHWDLOHGDQDO\VLVVWDJH &DOFXODWLRQVLQFOXGH9$7DW EXWWKH\GRQRWFRQVLGHUUHJLRQDOIDFWRUV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
DUHDV LQ WKH GHWDLOHG DQDO\VLV LV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ HTXDO WR WKDW RI WKH PHDQV LQ WKH URXJK DQDO\VLV LQ WKH VSHFLILHG EXLOGLQJ FDWHJRU\ PXOWLIDPLO\ KRXVHV ZLWK PRUH WKDQ GZHOOLQJ XQLWV PHGLXP VWDQGDUG RI ILWRXW DQG ILQLVK WKH VXP RI WKH ³IURPWR´ YDOXHV UHIOHFWVDODUJHUVSUHDGRISRVVLEOHYDOXHVLQWKHGHWDLOHGDQDO\VLV 7RWDOFRVW>¼@
7RWDO FRVW±'HWDLOHG DQDO\VLV>¼@
9DOXHV[A
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
7RWDO FRVW±5RXJKDQDO\VLV >¼@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
9DOXHVLQ0LOOLRQV
+LVWRJUDPV±7RWDOFRVW±5RXJKDQGGHWDLOHGDQDO\VLV
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¼ PLOOLRQ IRU WKH VKHOO FRQVWUXFWLRQ ILQLVKLQJ DQG VHUYLFHV DQG XWLOLWLHV ZRUNDUHDV$UHGXFWLRQLQWKHTXDOLWLHVDQGRUTXDQWLWLHVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGWRLQFUHDVH WKHOLNHOLKRRGRIDGKHULQJWRWKHEXGJHWRI¼ PLOOLRQ4XDOLWLHVZLOOKDYHWREHGHWDLOHG WRDJUHDWHUGHJUHHLIUDQJHVDUHQDUURZHGIXUWKHU,QDGGLWLRQPRUHGHWDLOHGDQDO\VHVFDQ EHSHUIRUPHGVXFKDVRQWKHFRVWJURXSRUHOHPHQWLWHPOHYHOV
%HQHILWIRUWKH&OLHQW
)URPWKHFOLHQW¶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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
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
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
3URMHFW3KDVHLQFOXGHVWKHGHWDLOHGGHVLJQDQGFRQWUDFWDZDUGVWDJHV7KLVSKDVHUHTXLUHV WKHSUHSDUDWLRQRIDFRVWTXRWDWLRQIRUWKHLQGLYLGXDOZRUNLWHPV,QDGGLWLRQWKHEXLOGLQJ VSHFLILFDWLRQ LV DQDO\]HG DQG WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH FDOFXODWHG ZKLFK ZLOO KDYH D PDMRU LQIOXHQFHRQWKHFRQWUDFWRU¶VSURGXFWLRQV\VWHPDVZHOODVRQWKHDFKLHYHPHQWRISURMHFW WDUJHWV
&RVW4XRWDWLRQ
3UHSDULQJ WKH FRVW TXRWDWLRQ LV SDUW RI 3URMHFW 3KDVH ,W VKRXOG LGHDOO\ EH EDVHG RQ D VXIILFLHQWO\DGYDQFHGGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ VHH)LJ 7KHFRVWTXRWDWLRQ¶VSXUSRVHLVWRREWDLQHYHQPRUHDFFXUDWHNQRZOHGJHRIWKHFRVWVRUELG SULFHVWREHH[SHFWHG,WLVSUHSDUHGRQWKHOHYHORILQGLYLGXDOZRUNLWHPV
&/
%LG TXRWDWLRQ
,GHDO SURFHVV
%
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
'HVLJQ
)
(
'
&
33+
33+
33+
33+ $
$SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
-
, +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
2SHUDWLRQ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV &OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ $ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
)LJ
33+ +
*
$OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV 'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV 33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
%DVLFV
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
7DVN
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¶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
&I/HFKQHU+HFN SI &I)HW]HUHWDO ,QDQDORJ\WRWKH3DUHWRSULQFLSOHWKHVHDUHWKHRIDOOLWHPVWKDWDFFRXQWIRUDERXWRIWKHWRWDOSULFH
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
0RGHOLQJ
,Q WKH FDVH RI UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH DQG PDVRQU\ RSHUDWLRQV ZH FDQ EDVH WKH PRGHOLQJ H[HUFLVHWREHSHUIRUPHGIRUTXDQWLW\XQFHUWDLQWLHVRQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHH[SHUWVXUYH\ VHH 6HFWLRQ 7KHVDPHV\VWHPDVXVHGIRUWKHFRVWHVWLPDWHRUFRVWFDOFXODWLRQLQ6HFWLRQ FDQEH DSSOLHGWRUHIOHFWWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLWHPL]HGSULFHV )LJ VKRZVWKHIORZFKDUWIRUWKLVFDOFXODWLRQ,QDGGLWLRQWKHSURSRUWLRQVRIZDJHV DQGRWKHUFRPSRQHQWVFDQEHVWDWHGIRUWKHSULFHVRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOLWHPVZKLFKSHUPLWVD PRUHGHWDLOHGPRGHOLQJH[HUFLVH
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
4XDQWLW\
8QLWSULFH
,WHP1R
4XDQWLW\
8QLWSULFH
,WHPSULFH
[[[[[[%
4XDQWLW\
8QLWSULFH
,WHPSULFH
«
«
4XDQWLW\
«
[[[[[[=
«
«
&DOFXODWLRQ± 7RWDOSULFH
[[[[[[$
8QLWSULFH
,WHPSULFH
'HSHQGLQJRQWKHVWUXFWXUHRIWKHVXP RIZRUNVXEJURXSVZRUNJURXSVSULQFLSDO JURXSVDQGPDLQJURXSV
7RWDO
7RWDOSULFH
)LJ
&DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUW±&RVWTXRWDWLRQ
&DOFXODWLRQDQG,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI5HVXOWV
1RVHSDUDWH H[DPSOHLVJLYHQLQWKLVVHFWLRQEHFDXVHWKHFDOFXODWLRQ SURFHVVLVPRUHRU OHVVLGHQWLFDOWRWKDWXVHGIRUWKHFRVWHVWLPDWHDQGRUFRVWFDOFXODWLRQ VHH6HFWLRQ
%HQHILWIRUWKH&OLHQW
7KHFRQVLVWHQWFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQSUHSDULQJWKHFRVWTXRWDWLRQDQGWKHDSSOL FDWLRQ RI 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQV HQDEOH WKH FOLHQW WR JHW DQ RYHUYLHZ RI SRVVLEOH ELG SULFH UDQJHV HYHQ EHIRUH WKH WHQGHU GRFXPHQWV DUH SXEOLVKHG$V D UHVXOW RI WKRURXJKO\ FRQVLGHULQJWKHSRVVLEOHUDQJHVRILWHPL]HGSULFHVWKHFOLHQWKDVWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WRFRUUHFW WKHELOORITXDQWLWLHVLIUHTXLUHGIRULQVWDQFHE\EUHDNLQJGRZQFRPELQHGSULFLQJLWHPV LQWRVHSDUDWHVXELWHPV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH SULFLQJKLVWRJUDPV FDQ EHXVHG IRUFKHFNLQJWKHELGV IRUSODXVLELOLW\RU GHULYLQJWKHFKDQFHULVNUDWLRVIRUWKHSULFHVTXRWHGE\WKHLQGLYLGXDOELGGHUVERWKRQWKH OHYHORILQGLYLGXDOZRUNLWHPVDQGIRUZRUNJURXSVRUZRUNVXEJURXSV
'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ7LPH
:H GLVFXVVHG WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH DQG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH VSHFLILHGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHDQGFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWLQ&KDSWHU&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHLVRQHRI WKH HVVHQWLDO VSHFLILFDWLRQV SURYLGHG E\ WKH FOLHQW LW KDV D PDMRU LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH XWLOL ]DWLRQRIWKHFRQWUDFWRU¶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
&RQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH FDOFXODWLRQ
&/
,GHDO SURFHVV
33+ %
$ 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
33+
33+
'HVLJQ
)
(
'
&
$SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
-
,
+ +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
2SHUDWLRQ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV &OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ $ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
)LJ
33+
33+ *
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV 'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV 33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
$OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
'HWHUPLQLQJWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHIURPWKHFOLHQW¶VSHUVSHFWLYHLVSDUWRI3URMHFW3KDVH VHH )LJ ,W LV DQ HVVHQWLDO SUHUHTXLVLWH IRU SUHSDULQJ WKH WHQGHU DQG FRQWUDFWXDO GRFXPHQWV
7DVN
)RUDEXLOGLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFW /LQ]2SHUD+RXVH WKHWLPHUHTXLUHGIRUFRQVWUXFWLRQ ZRUNV LV FDOFXODWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH H[SHFWHG JURVV FXELF YROXPH *&9 >Pñ@ WKH DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV :.$9* >ZKK@ WKH GDLO\ ZRUNLQJ WLPH:7 >KG@ DQG WKH DYHUDJHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRIVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV/&56&$9*>ZKPñ@ ,QGLFDWLYHYDOXHVIRUWKHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHFDQEHGHULYHGIURPSHUWLQHQWOLWHUDWXUH DQG IURP DQDO\]LQJ SUHYLRXVO\ FRPSOHWHG SURMHFWV DV ZHOO DV RQ WKH EDVLV RI H[SHUW UHVSRQVHVWRVXUYH\V
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
,QWKHILHOGRIEXLOGLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQRQHSRVVLEOHPHWKRGRIHVWLPDWLQJRUFDOFXODWLQJWKH QXPEHURIZRUNHUVLVWRVWDUWIURPWKHQXPEHURIFUDQHVWREHLQVWDOOHGRQWKHMREVLWHDV UHTXLUHGIRUWKHVSHFLILHGZRUNV VHHDOVR6HFWLRQ
0RGHOLQJ
)LJ VKRZVWKHIORZFKDUWIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHGXUDWLRQRIVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV'6& >G@,QWKLVH[DPSOHDOOLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVDUHUHSUHVHQWHGE\WULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQV,QWKH ILUVW VWHS ZH REWDLQ WKH DYHUDJH SHUIRUPDQFH YDOXH 396&$9* >PñG@ IURP WKH DYHUDJH QXPEHURIZRUNHUV :.$9*>ZKK@WKHGDLO\ZRUNLQJWLPH:7>KG@DQGWKHDYHUDJH ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH RI VKHOO FRQVWUXFWLRQ ZRUNV /&56&$9* >ZKPñ@ :H GLYLGH WKH JURVV FXELF YROXPH *&9 >Pñ@ E\ WKLV FDOFXODWHG SHUIRUPDQFH YDOXH WR REWDLQ WKH GXUDWLRQRIVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV'6&>G@
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
*URVVFXELF YROXPH *&9
&DOFXODWLRQ± $YHUDJH SHUIRUPDQFH
&DOFXODWLRQ± 'XUDWLRQ
)LJ
:.$9*
*&9
396&$9*
$YHUDJH FRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRI VKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQ ZRUNV /&56&$9*
'DLO\ZRUNLQJ WLPH :7
$YHUDJH QXPEHURI ZRUNHUV:.$9*
:7
/&56&$9*
$YHUDJH SHUIRUPDQFH 396&$9*
'XUDWLRQRIVKHOO FRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV '6&
&DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUW±'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
&DOFXODWLRQDQG,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI5HVXOWV
7DEOH LOOXVWUDWHVWKHFDOFXODWLRQRIWKHWLPHWRFRPSOHWLRQRIVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV &ROXPQV & ' DQG ( VWDWH WKH PLQLPXP PRVW OLNHO\ DQG PD[LPXP YDOXHV IRU WKH XQFHUWDLQLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVLQRUGHUWRGHILQHWKHUHODWHGWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQV&ROXPQ *LQFOXGHVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQVDVVXFKRUWKHUHODWHGLQWHULPDQGILQDOUHVXOWV 7KHH[SHFWHGJURVVFXELFYROXPH*&9RIWKLVEXLOGLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWDPRXQWVWR Pñ'HSHQGLQJRQSURMHFWSURJUHVVLQWHUPVRILWVGHVLJQDQGGHWDLOLQJWKHJURVV FXELFYROXPHLVHLWKHUDGHWHUPLQLVWLF IL[HG YDOXHRULWLVVWLOOIUDXJKWZLWKXQFHUWDLQWLHV ,QWKLVH[DPSOHZHDVVXPHDFHUWDLQ QDUURZ UDQJHZLWKLQZKLFKWKHJURVVFXELFYROXPH PD\VWLOOYDU\ PLQLPXP Pñ PD[LPXP Pñ±VHH5RZLQ7DEOH 7KH DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV :.$9* ZDV DOVR GHILQHG DV D WULDQJXODU GLVWULEXWLRQ EHWZHHQDQGZRUNHUV PRVWOLNHO\YDOXH ZRUNHUV VHH5RZ /LNHZLVHWKH GDLO\ ZRUNLQJ WLPH :7 5RZ FDQ UDQJH IURP WR KG PRVW OLNHO\ YDOXH KG
,QEXLOGLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQWKHQXPEHURIZRUNHUV PD[LPXP HVVHQWLDOO\GHSHQGVRQWKHQXPEHURIFUDQHVXVHG
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
&DOFXODWLRQSDUDPHWHU
1R
$
8QLW
0,1
0267 /,.(/
G@
'XUDWLRQRIVKHOO FRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV>G@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ
+LVWRJUDP±'XUDWLRQRIVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV
,QWKLVH[DPSOHWKHGXUDWLRQRIVKHOOFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNVUDQJHVIURPWR GD\VDIWHU LWHUDWLRQV 7KH PHDQ YDOXH DPRXQWV WR DERXW GD\V ZKHUHDV WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQLVDSSUR[LPDWHO\GD\V :KHQVSHFLI\LQJDFHUWDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHWKHFOLHQWFDQXVHWKHUHVXOWRIWKHSUREDEL OLVWLF FDOFXODWLRQ LQ RUGHU WR DUULYH DW GLUHFW FRQFOXVLRQV UHJDUGLQJ WKH DVVRFLDWHG
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
FKDQFHULVN UDWLR IRU WKHLU DVVXPSWLRQV PDGH IRU WKH SXUSRVH RI WKH FDOFXODWLRQ ,Q WKH H[DPSOHDFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHRIGD\VZRXOGFRUUHVSRQGWRDFKDQFHULVNUDWLRRIDERXW FKDQFH WR ULVN 7KHFOLHQWVKRXOGWKXVDLPWRVSHFLI\DFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHGXULQJZKLFKWKHFRQWUDFWRUVDUH DEOH WR IXOO\ XWLOL]H WKHLU SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV ,Q WKLV VFHQDULR WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU UHTXLUHG DFFHOHUDWLRQPHDVXUHVRUDGGLWLRQDOFRVWFODLPVLVUHGXFHGVLJQLILFDQWO\
%HQHILWIRUWKH&OLHQW
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ñ@ ,I UHODWLYHO\ RSWLPLVWLF UDQJHV DUH DSSOLHG LQ WKH PRGHOLQJ H[HUFLVH WKLV ZLOO UHVXOWLQDKLVWRJUDPZLWKDFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHUDQJHQHDUWKHORZHUHQG7KHDSSOLHGLQSXW SDUDPHWHUGLVWULEXWLRQVVKRXOGWKXVEHEDVHGRQDVROLGGDWDEDVHRULQIRUPDWLRQSURYLGHG E\H[SHUWV 0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQVPDNHLWSRVVLEOHWRV\VWHPDWLFDOO\FRQVLGHUWKHDVVRFLDWHGXQFHU WDLQWLHVLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQSURFHVVDQGWRYLVXDOL]HWKHSRVVLEOHVSUHDGVDVSDUWRIWKHLQWHU SUHWDWLRQ RI UHVXOWV 7KLV VWHS FUHDWHV D EDVLV IRU GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ LQ RUGHU WR VSHFLI\ D GHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXHIRUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH 7KH ELGGHUV DUH QRW DZDUH RI WKH DVVXPSWLRQV PDGH E\ WKH FOLHQW LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VSHFLILHG FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH ZKLFK LV ZK\ WKH\ FDUU\ RXW WKHLU RZQ FDOFXODWLRQV RQ WKH EDVLVRIWKHWHQGHUGRFXPHQWV,QWXUQELGGHUVZLOODUULYHDWWKHLURZQDVVHVVPHQWVDVWR ZKHWKHUWKHVSHFLILHGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHLVQRUPDORUHLWKHUWRRVKRUWRUWRRORQJ7KH\ZLOO WKHQDGMXVWWKHLUSULFLQJDQGSODQQHGUHVRXUFHXWLOL]DWLRQDFFRUGLQJO\ &OLHQWVFDQXVHWKHREWDLQHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHDQGUHODWHGVSUHDGVWREH H[SHFWHGIRUIXUWKHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQVUHJDUGLQJWKHXVHRIWKHEXLOGLQJVXFKDVLQUHODWLRQWR OHWWLQJRUVKRSRSHQLQJGDWHVDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGFKDQFHVDQGULVNV
%LG$QDO\VLV±,Q'HSWK%LG$VVHVVPHQW
)RUWKHELGGHU DQGIXWXUHFRQWUDFWRU WKHELOORITXDQWLWLHVIRUPLQJSDUWRIWKHVWUXFWXUDO EXLOGLQJVSHFLILFDWLRQLVWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWEDVLVXSRQZKLFKWRSURFHHGZLWKFRVWLQJDQG SULFLQJ DOWKRXJK LW VKRXOG DOZD\V EH UHOLHG XSRQ LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK DOO RWKHU WHQGHU GRFXPHQWV 7KH FOLHQW PXVW GHVFULEH DOO FLUFXPVWDQFHV DQG FRQGLWLRQV IRU ZRUNV WR EH SHUIRUPHG VR DV WR HQDEOH WKH ELGGHU WR SUHSDUH WKHLU SURSRVDO LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH REMHFWLYHH[SODQDWRU\FRQWHQWRIWKHELGGRFXPHQWV &RQYHUVHO\LWLVWKHFRQWUDFWRU¶VUHVSRQVLELOLW\WRMXVWLI\DOODVVXPSWLRQVUHJDUGLQJSULFLQJ DQGZRUNH[HFXWLRQPDGHRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHWHQGHUGRFXPHQWV FRVWLQJDVVXPSWLRQVRU
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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¶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
&I+RIVWDGOHU SII
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
&/ %LGDQDO\VLV
,GHDO SURFHVV
33+ $ 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
33+ &
3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
%
33+
' 'HVLJQ
( $SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
) 'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
33+
33+ *
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
+ 3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
, +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
2SHUDWLRQ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV &OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ $ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
)LJ
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV 'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV 33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
$OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
7KHELGDQDO\VLVRULQGHSWKELGDVVHVVPHQWLVDOORFDWHGWRWKHILQDOVWDJHRI3URMHFW3KDVH ,WXVXDOO\FRQVWLWXWHVWKHODVWVWHSSULRUWRDZDUGLQJWKHFRQWUDFW VHH)LJ
%DVLFV
,Q WKHLU ³Handwörterbuch der Bauwirtschaft´ >&RQVWUXFWLRQ ,QGXVWU\ 'LFWLRQDU\@ Oberndorfer/Jodl FRQVLGHUDSULFHWREHIDLUDQGUHDVRQDEOHLI³>@LWOLHVZLWKLQDUDQJH WKDW HQVXUHV IXOO FRVW FRYHUDJH 7KXV D IDLU DQG UHDVRQDEOH SULFH OLHV ZLWKLQ D UDQJH EHWZHHQDQXQGXO\ORZSULFHDQGDQH[FHVVLYHO\KLJKSULFH´ ,QWKHLU³Handkommentar zur VOB´>&RPPHQWDU\RQWKH92%@Heiermann/Riedl/Rusam et al.SRVWXODWHWKDWDUHDVRQDEOHSULFHOHYHOLVUHDFKHGLIDQGZKHQ³>@DQLPSHFFDEOH VWDQGDUGRIZRUNPDQVKLSFDQEHH[SHFWHGLQFOXGLQJOLDELOLW\IRUGHIHFWVZKLOHHQVXULQJ FRVWHIILFLHQWFRQVWUXFWLRQPDQDJHPHQWDQGHFRQRPLFDOEXVLQHVVRSHUDWLRQV´ ,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWELGGHUVDUHJHQHUDOO\IUHHLQWKHLUDSSURDFKWRSULFLQJ+RZHYHUWKH FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH WRWDO SULFH VKRXOG EH WUDQVSDUHQW DQG SODXVLEOH &RVW HVWLPDWHV PD\ VLJQLILFDQWO\GHYLDWHIURPRQHDQRWKHURZLQJWRGLIIHUHQWSHUIRUPDQFHYDOXHVRUSURGXF WLYLW\HVWLPDWHVRUWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRILQQRYDWLYHFRQVWUXFWLRQPHWKRGVE\WKHELGGHUV (YHQELGSULFHVWKDWIDLOWRFRYHUWKHIXOOFRVWFRXOGEHMXVWLILHGE\PDUNHWHQWU\FRQVLGHUD WLRQVRUWKHELGGHU¶VSURQRXQFHGLQWHUHVWLQEHLQJDZDUGHGODQGPDUNSURMHFWVRUHQVXULQJ IXOOFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQZLWKLQWKHLUEXVLQHVV6XFKDQH[WUDRUGLQDULO\ORZSULFHKRZHYHU PXVW QHYHU SXW WKH OLTXLGLW\ RI WKH EXVLQHVV DW ULVN EHFDXVH WKLV ZRXOG FRQWUDGLFW WKH SULQFLSOHRIWKHHFRQRPLFMXVWLILDELOLW\RISULFHV&RQVHTXHQWO\HYHQELGVZLWKRXWIXOOFRVW FRYHUDJH PD\ LQFOXGH D SODXVLEOH FRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH WRWDO SULFH DQG VKRXOG WKXV QRW QHFHVVDULO\EHH[FOXGHGDWWKHRXWVHW
&I2EHUQGRUIHU-RGOHWDO S WUDQVODWLRQE\6WHIIHQ:DOWHU &I+HLHUPDQQ5LHGO5XVDPHWDO S WUDQVODWLRQE\6WHIIHQ:DOWHU
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
%HVLGHVDVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWRWDOSULFHSRLQWLQJWRDQHOHPHQWRIVSHFXODWLRQKLJKHUELGV FDQDOVRLQFOXGHVSHFXODWLYHFRQVLGHUDWLRQV&DUHPXVWEHWDNHQLQWKLVUHJDUGWREHDULQ PLQGWKDWKLJKDQGORZXQLWSULFHVFDQRIIVHWHDFKRWKHULQWKHWRWDOSULFH
5HYLHZRISULFH DSSURSULDWHQHVV
*HQHUDOUHYLHZ
,QGHSWKUHYLHZ
5HYLHZRIFRVWLQJIRUPVQRW\HWUHTXLUHG
5HYLHZRIFRVWLQJIRUPVUHTXLUHG
7KHIROORZLQJUHYLHZVDUHSHUIRUPHG ,VWKHELGSULFHXQXVXDOO\KLJKRUORZ" ,VWKHUHDQXQXVXDOUDWLREHWZHHQLWHPSULFHV DQGRYHUKHDGV" 83 5DWLREHWZHHQZDJHVDQGRWKHU FRPSRQHQWV )RUFRPSDUDEOHLWHPV ,VWKHUHDQXQXVXDO SULFHGHFOLQHLQFUHDVH" ,VWKHUHDQ\VSHFXODWLYHSRWHQWLDO"
7KHIROORZLQJUHYLHZVDUHSHUIRUPHG 5HYLHZRIWKHLWHPVPDUNHGDVHVVHQWLDO $%&DQDO\VLVWRLGHQWLI\IXUWKHULWHPVUHOHYDQW WRSULFLQJ 5HYLHZRIFRVWLQJIRUPVZLWKXQXVXDORU HVVHQWLDOLWHPV 83 5DWLREHWZHHQZDJHVDQGRWKHU FRPSRQHQWV 3ULFHFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQELGGHUV 6HQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VHVWRLGHQWLI\VSHFXODWLYH SRWHQWLDO &RPSDULVRQRIXQLWSULFHVZLWKH[SHULHQWLDO HYLGHQFH $QDO\VLVRIXQLWSULFHVZLWKUHVSHFWWR SHUIRUPDQFHDQGFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHV $QDO\VLVRIRWKHUSULFLQJDVVXPSWLRQV 3ULFHDSSURSULDWHQHVV
)LJ
5HYLHZRISULFHDSSURSULDWHQHVVIRUSXEOLFVHFWRUFOLHQWV
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&OLHQW
([DPSOHVRISULFHFRPSRQHQWV 3& DQGSULFLQJEDVHV 3%
:DJHV
6DODULHV
:DJHV JRYHUQHGE\ FROOHFWLYH DJUHHPHQWV $GGLWLRQDOFRVWV $GGLWLRQDO ZDJHV 6SHFLDO UHLPEXUVHPHQWV $QFLOODU\ZDJH FRVWV
6DODULHV JRYHUQHGE\ FROOHFWLYH DJUHHPHQWV $GGLWLRQDOFRVWV ,QFHQWLYHV 6SHFLDO UHLPEXUVHPHQWV $QFLOODU\FRVWV
)LJ
0DWHULDO &RQVWUXFWLRQ PDWHULDOV $X[LOLDU\ PDWHULDOV 3URFHVV PDWHULDOV
(TXLSPHQW ,PSDLUPHQW 'HSUHFLDWLRQ DPRUWL]DWLRQ DQGDFFUXLQJ LQWHUHVW 7D[HVDQG OHYLHV ,QVXUDQFH (TXLSPHQW DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ &RVWVRI SHULRGLFWHVWV DQGUHYLHZV 0DLQWHQDQFH UHSDLU
7KLUGSDUW\ VHUYLFHV 7DULIIV ,QGLFDWLYH SULFHV 5HOHYDQWWKLUG SDUW\ TXRWDWLRQV E\ WUDGHVPHQ IUHLJKW IRUZDUGHUV UHF\FOLQJDQG GLVSRVDO EXVLQHVVHV
3&
3%
'LVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQSULFLQJEDVHV 3% DQGSULFHFRPSRQHQWV 3&
&RVWLQJIRUPV ,Q$XVWULD FRVWLQJ IRUPV ³& IRUPV´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
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
6XEPLVVLRQVE\ELGGHUV
%LGVUHFHLYHG ODWH
%LGERQGQRW UHFHLYHGDWWKH WLPHRIELG RSHQLQJ
$VVHVVPHQWRI VXLWDELOLW\RI ELGGHUV
5HTXLUHPHQWVPHW"
&KHFNIRU IRUPDO FRUUHFWQHVV
&KHFNIRU FRUUHFWQHVVRI FDOFXODWLRQV
&RUUHFWLRQ DPHQGPHQW RI LQDGPLVVLEOH ELG SHUPLVVLEOH"
1R
,GHQWLILFDWLRQRI LQFRUUHFWRU LQFRPSOHWHELGV
1R
(OLPLQDWH DIWHU FRUUHFWLRQ"
@
>@
7RWDO
0$; 'LVWU 6,0 0,1
6WUXFWXUDOFULWHULD
'LVWULEXWLRQRISRLQWV
0,1
0267 /,.(/
@
>@
'LVWULEXWLRQRISRLQWV
0HWKRG% 0,1
0267 /,.(/
@
7RWDO
0$; 'LVWU 6,0 0,1 >@
>@
>@
&RQVWUXFWLRQPDQDJHPHQWFULWHULD
'LVWDQFHEHWZHHQFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGVWRUDJHIRFDO SRLQWV 5HTXLUHPHQWVIRUZRUNHUV¶TXDOLILFDWLRQVDQG VNLOOV
0HWKRGV\VWHP
,QGLYLGXDO
0267 /,.(/
G@
)RUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ
5HLQIRUFLQJ
&RQFUHWLQJ
)LJ 1HWZRUNHG*DQWWFKDUW±)ORRUVODEZRUNVHFWLRQ
,QDGGLWLRQWRWKH*DQWWFKDUWEDVHGRQWKHPHDQGXUDWLRQVRIWKHDFWLYLWLHV)LJ DOVRLQFOXGHVWKHKLVWRJUDPVRIWKHSRVVLEOHFRPSOHWLRQGDWHVRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOZRUNV:H ILQG WKDW WKH VSUHDG RI WKH HQG GDWH LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI VHYHUDO LQWHUOLQNHG XQFHUWDLQSURFHVVHV7KHODUJHUWKHQXPEHURIXQFHUWDLQSURFHVVHVDORQJWKHFULWLFDOSDWK
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
WKDWOHDGWRDVFKHGXOHGHQGGDWHWKHJUHDWHUWKHUDQJHRISRVVLEOHFRPSOHWLRQGDWHVZLOO EH 7KHVH UDQJHV FDQ PRVW SUREDEO\ EH UHGXFHG DJDLQ LI ZH GHOLEHUDWHO\ DGG EXIIHUV WR WKH SURFHVVRULIZHDUHDEOHWRUHVWULFWWKHUDQJHVRIWKHXQFHUWDLQLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV :RUNLQJGD\V>G@
)RUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ
5HLQIRUFLQJ
&RQFUHWLQJ
)LJ 1HWZRUNHG*DQWWFKDUWLQFOXGLQJKLVWRJUDPV±)ORRUVODEZRUNVHFWLRQ
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
7R FRXQWHUDFW WKLV VLWXDWLRQ LW ZRXOG EH FRQFHLYDEOH WR RYHUODS WKH WZR SURFHVVHV RI IRUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ DQG UHLQIRUFLQJ LQ RUGHU WR UXQ WKHVH SURFHVVHV VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ DW OHDVWWRDFHUWDLQH[WHQW,QVRGRLQJLWLVFUXFLDOWRSUHYHQWDQ\FODVKRIWKHUHLQIRUFLQJ ZLWKWKHIRUPZRUNRSHUDWLRQVZKLOHDOORFDWLQJVXIILFLHQWVSDFHWRDOOZRUNHUV 'XUDWLRQ>G@
'XUDWLRQ>G@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ +LVWRJUDP±'XUDWLRQSHUIORRUVODEZRUNVHFWLRQ
%HQHILWIRUWKH&RQWUDFWRU
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
$Q\XQGHUUXQRIWKHPLQLPXPDYDLODEOHDUHDSHUZRUNHUZLOOUHVXOWLQPXWXDOREVWUXFWLRQDQGWKXVORVVHVRISURGXFWL YLW\DQGRUODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
6WRFNLQJRI&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DWHULDOV
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
,GHDO SURFHVV
$
% 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
& 3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
' 'HVLJQ
33+
33+
33+
33+
( $SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
) 'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
*
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
33+ +
3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
, +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
2SHUDWLRQ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV &OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
%LGGHU
&7
6WRFNLQJRIFRQVWUXFWLRQ PDWHULDOV
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV
$ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
)LJ $OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
%DVLFV
7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQGLVFXVVHVWKHEDVLFVIRUGLPHQVLRQLQJDVWRFNSLOHDFFRUGLQJWRWKH RUGHUF\FOHPHWKRG DQGRXWOLQHVWKHLQGLYLGXDOVWHSVRIFDOFXODWLQJWKHTXDQWLWLHVWREH VWRFNHG
&I+RIVWDGOHU S 7KLVLVZKHUHWKHVFKHGXOLQJRIRSWLPDORUGHULQJLQWHUYDOV GDWHV LVLQWKHIRFXV2UGHULQJGDWHVDUHGHILQHGZKLOHWKH RUGHUTXDQWLW\LVYDULDEOHDQGZLOOEHJRYHUQHGE\FRQVXPSWLRQ &I+RIVWDGOHU SII
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
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
8 ⋅ W $6
7KHDGGLWLRQDOVWRFNLQJWLPHW$6HQVXUHVWKDWVXIILFLHQWPDWHULDOLVVWRFNHGRQVLWHLQRUGHU WRH[FHHGWKHSURFXUHPHQWLQWHUYDO7KHGXUDWLRQRIWKHDGGLWLRQDOVWRFNLQJWLPHFDQEH VHOHFWHGIUHHO\ 3URFXUHPHQWVWRFN 7KH SURFXUHPHQW VWRFN Q3 >84@ GHVLJQDWHV WKH VWRFN XVHG XS GXULQJ WKH SURFXUHPHQW LQWHUYDO7KHSURFXUHPHQWVWRFNZLOOQRUPDOO\EHVRODUJHWKDWWKHPLQLPXPVWRFNOHYHO QPLQZLOOEHUHWDLQHG :H XVH (T WR FDOFXODWH WKH SURFXUHPHQW VWRFN E\ PXOWLSO\LQJ WKH SURFXUHPHQW LQWHUYDOW3>G@ZLWKWKHWKURXJKSXW8 Q3
8 ⋅ W3
$FFRUGLQJWR(T WKHSURFXUHPHQWLQWHUYDOW3>G@LVWKHVXPRIWKHVFKHGXOLQJWLPH W6>G@DQGWKHWUDQVSRUWWLPHW7>G@ W3
W6 W7
7KHVXSSOLHU¶VVFKHGXOLQJWLPHW6LVLQIOXHQFHGIRUH[DPSOHE\WKHSURGXFWLRQDQGSURFX UHPHQW RI WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDWHULDOV 7KH WUDQVSRUW WLPH W7 GHSHQGV IRU H[DPSOH RQ GHOLYHU\WLPHVSHUPLWVFXVWRPVEUHDNGRZQVHWF 5HTXLUHGVWRFN 7KHUHTXLUHGVWRFNRUUHRUGHUOHYHOQUHT>84@LVWKHVWRFNOHYHODWZKLFKDQHZRUGHUZLOOEH WULJJHUHG,WPXVWEHGHILQHGVXFKWKDWWKHPLQLPXPVWRFNOHYHOQPLQLVQRUPDOO\UHWDLQHG GXULQJWKHSURFXUHPHQWLQWHUYDO FRYHUDJHSHULRG 7KHVXPRIWKHPLQLPXPVWRFNOHYHO QPLQDQGWKHSURFXUHPHQWVWRFNQ3LVHTXDOWRWKHUHTXLUHGVWRFNQUHT (T Q UHT
Q PLQ Q 3
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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≥ Q HII ≥ Q UHT
2UGHULQJLQWHUYDO 7KHRUGHULQJLQWHUYDOW2>G@LVWKHWLPHUHPDLQLQJEHWZHHQWKHHIIHFWLYHDQGWKHUHTXLUHG VWRFN 7KHRUGHULQJLQWHUYDOW2LVFDOFXODWHGE\GLYLGLQJWKHGLIIHUHQFHRIWKHHIIHFWLYHVWRFNQHII DQGWKHUHTXLUHGVWRFNQUHTE\WKHWKURXJKSXW8 W2
Q HII ± Q UHT 8
7DVN
7KLVH[DPSOHFRQFHUQVWKHVWRUDJHRIEULFNVIRUWKHPDVRQU\FRQVWUXFWLRQRIDUHVLGHQWLDO EXLOGLQJ7KH QXPEHU RI EULFNV UHTXLUHG SHU GD\ UHVXOWV IURP WKH VFKHGXOHG GDLO\ ZRUN SHUIRUPDQFH%ULFNVDUHGHOLYHUHGRQSDOOHWVDQGWHPSRUDULO\NHSWLQVWRFNLQVWRUDJHDUHDV RUGLUHFWO\DGMDFHQWWRWKHZDOOVXQGHUFRQVWUXFWLRQ:HQHHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHSURFXUHPHQW LQWHUYDOWKDWFRUUHVSRQGVWRDFKDQFHULVNUDWLRRI ULVN WR FKDQFH RQWKHEDVLV RIWKHXQFHUWDLQLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV
0RGHOLQJ
)LJVKRZVWKHIORZFKDUWIRUWKLVFDOFXODWLRQ7KHXQFHUWDLQLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVDUH PRGHOHGDVWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQV7KHRQO\NQRZQGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXHLVWKHHIIHFWLYH VWRFN LQYHQWRU\ QHII>Pñ@
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
7KURXJKSXW 8
&DOFXODWLRQ± 0LQLPXPVWRFNOHYHO
7KURXJKSXW 8
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
6FKHGXOLQJ WLPH W6
&DOFXODWLRQ± 3URFXUHPHQWLQWHUYDO
6FKHGXOLQJ WLPH W6
&DOFXODWLRQ± 3URFXUHPHQWVWRFN
7KURXJKSXW 8
&DOFXODWLRQ± 5HTXLUHGVWRFN
3URFXUHPHQW VWRFN Q3
&DOFXODWLRQ± 2UGHULQJLQWHUYDO
$GGLWLRQDO VWRFNLQJWLPH W$6
$GGLWLRQDO VWRFNLQJWLPH W$6
0LQLPXP VWRFNOHYHO QPLQ
7UDQVSRUW WLPH W7
7UDQVSRUW WLPH W7
3URFXUHPHQW LQWHUYDO W3
3URFXUHPHQW LQWHUYDO W3
3URFXUHPHQW VWRFN Q3
(IIHFWLYHVWRFN LQYHQWRU\ QHII
(IIHFWLYHVWRFN LQYHQWRU\ QHII
0LQLPXP VWRFNOHYHO QPLQ
5HTXLUHGVWRFN UHRUGHUOHYHO QUHT
5HTXLUHGVWRFN UHRUGHUOHYHO QUHT
7KURXJKSXW 8
2UGHULQJ LQWHUYDO W2
)LJ &DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUW±6WRFNLQJRIFRQVWUXFWLRQPDWHULDOV
&DOFXODWLRQDQG,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI5HVXOWV
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ñ@ VKRZQ LQ &HOO (:H FDOFXODWH WKH SURFXUHPHQW LQWHUYDOW3 &HOO( DVWKHVXPRIWKHVFKHGXOLQJWLPHW6 5RZ DQGWKHWUDQVSRUWWLPHW7 5RZ 7KH SURGXFW RI WKH SURFXUHPHQW LQWHUYDO W3 DQG WKH WKURXJKSXW 8 LV HTXLYDOHQW WR WKH SURFXUHPHQWVWRFNQ3 &HOO( ZKLFKWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHPLQLPXPVWRFNOHYHOUHSUHVHQWV WKHUHTXLUHGVWRFNQUHT>Pñ@ 7KHHIIHFWLYHVWRFNRULQYHQWRU\QHII>Pñ@ZDVFDOFXODWHGDVDGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXH ZLWKRXW XQFHUWDLQWLHV DPRXQWLQJWR Pñ
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
,QVHUWLQJWKHHIIHFWLYHVWRFNQHIIDVZHOODVWKHUHTXLUHGVWRFNQUHTDQGWKHWKURXJKSXW8LQ (T \LHOGVWKHRUGHULQJLQWHUYDOW2>G@DVDKLVWRJUDPVKRZQLQ&HOO( 1R
3DUDPHWHU
0,1
0267 /,.(/
@UHVXOWVIURPWKHQXPEHURI DYDLODEOHFUDQHV12&$9>FUDQHV@DQGWKHRSWLPXPQXPEHURIFUDQHV12&237>FUDQHV@ 7KLVSULQFLSOHDSSOLHVLI12&$9LVVPDOOHUWKDQ12&237
,IQRFRPSHQVDWLRQE\RWKHUPHDVXUHVLVSRVVLEOH &I+RIVWDGOHU &I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU S
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU 12 &$9 § ± · ⋅ © 12 &237¹
&& 5('
7KH SURJUHVVLRQ RI WKH FXUYH UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH LQFUHDVH Δ/&5&&,1&>@LVGHVFULEHGE\WKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQ Δ/&5 &&,1&
± ⋅ && 5(' ⋅ && 5(' ⋅ && 5('
0LQLPXPZRUNDUHD 2QDQ\JLYHQDUHD VXFKDVDIORRUVODEVHFWLRQZLWKLQVWDOOHGIRUPZRUN RQO\DFHUWDLQ QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV FDQ EH XVHG SURGXFWLYHO\ ,I WRR PDQ\ ZRUNHUV DUH HPSOR\HG LQ D FRQILQHGVSDFHWKH\ZLOOREVWUXFWHDFKRWKHUDQGWKXVWULJJHUORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\,QDQ H[SHUW VXUYH\ WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH LQFUHDVH LQ WKH FDVH RI QRQ DGKHUHQFHWRWKHPLQLPXPZRUNDUHDZDVHVWLPDWHG)LJVKRZVWKHUHVXOWRIWKLV VXUYH\IRUH[WHQVLYHUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHFRPSRQHQWVDVDQRQOLQHDUFXUYH 1RQDGKHUHQFHWRPLQLPXPZRUNDUHD± 5HLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV± 8QWHUVFKUHLWXQJGHU0LQGHVWDUEHLWVIOlFKH 6WDKOEHWRQDUEHLWHQ ([WHQVLYHVWUXFWXUDOFRPSRQHQWV IOlFKLJH%DXWHLOH
1RQDGKHUHQFHWRPLQLPXPZRUNDUHD± 0HVWLPDWRU 8QWHUVFKUHLWXQJGHU0LQGHVWDUEHLWVIOlFKH06FKlW]HU
,QFUHDVH LQODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH>@ (UK|KXQJGHV$XIZDQGVZHUWV>@
8QWHUVFKUHLWXQJGHU0LQGHVWDUEHLWVIOlFKH>@ 1RQDGKHUHQFHWRPLQLPXPZRUNDUHD>@
)LJ 7UHQGRIODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHV±1RQDGKHUHQFHWRPLQLPXPZRUNDUHD±5HLQ IRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV±([WHQVLYHVWUXFWXUDOFRPSRQHQWV
8VLQJ (T ZH REWDLQ WKH ZRUN DUHD UHGXFWLRQ :$5(' >@ IURP WKH DYDLODEOH ZRUN DUHD :$$9 >PðZRUNHU@ DQG WKH PLQLPXP ZRUN DUHD :$0,1 >PðZRUNHU@ 7KLV SULQFLSOHDSSOLHVLI:$$9LVVPDOOHUWKDQ:$0,1
&I+RIVWDGOHU &I+RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU S
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+ :$ $9 § ± · ⋅ © :$ 0,1¹
:$ 5('
(T GHILQHVWKHQRQOLQHDUUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQXQGHUUXQQLQJWKHPLQLPXPZRUN DUHDDQGWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHΔ/&5:$,1&>@ Δ/&5 :$,1&
± ⋅ :$ 5(' ⋅ :$ 5(' ⋅ :$ 5('
&DOFXODWLRQDQG,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI5HVXOWV
7R SHUIRUP SUREDELOLVWLF FDOFXODWLRQV GLVWULEXWLRQV PXVW EH DVVLJQHG WR WKH LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV,QWKLVH[DPSOHWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQVDUHXVHGIRUWKHXQFHUWDLQSDUDPHWHUV IRU WKH VDNH RI VLPSOLFLW\ 'LVWULEXWLRQV RI WKLV W\SH DUH GHILQHG E\ D PLQLPXP D PRVW OLNHO\ DQG D PD[LPXP YDOXH 7DEOH &ROXPQV & ' DQG ( LQFOXGHV WKH UHODWHG GDWD3DUDPHWHUVIRUZKLFKRQO\DPRVWOLNHO\YDOXHLVVSHFLILHGDUHLQFOXGHGLQWKHFDOFX ODWLRQDVGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXHV ,QSXWSDUDPHWHUVIRUWKHSUREDELOLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQ 1R
3DUDPHWHU
8QLW
0,1
0267 /,.(/
FUDQHV@
0LQLPXPZRUNDUHD
>Pð:.@
$YDLODEOHZRUNDUHD
>Pð@
0D[LPXPFUDQHSURSRUWLRQDOLW\IDFWRU
>Pñ@
0$; (
>G@ >ZKPñ@
>KG@
>¼ZK@
>:.FUDQH@
7DEOH ,QSXWSDUDPHWHUVIRUWKHSUREDELOLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQ
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
:HDVVXPHWKDWORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\GXHWRUHGXFHGFUDQHFDSDFLW\ZLOORFFXURQO\DIWHUH[FHHGLQJWKHWKUHVKROGRI ZRUNHUVSHUFUDQH
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
HTXLYDOHQWWRDVSHFLILHGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHRIGD\V 5RZ 5RZJLYHVWKHDYHUDJH SHUIRUPDQFHUHTXLUHGIRUWKHQRUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSHULRG PñG PñG :HWKXVREWDLQDQRUPDODYHUDJHQXPEHURIZRUNHUVRI PñG ZKPñ KG )RU WKH VKRUWHU FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH RI GD\V WKH UHTXLUHG DYHUDJH SHUIRUPDQFH LV PñG PñG
&DWHJRU\
1R
,QSXWSDUDPHWHU
8QLW
$
% >@
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHVKRUWHQLQJ 1RUPDOFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH 6KRUWHQHGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
&RQFUHWHYROXPH &9
>Pñ@
1HZYDOXHV
:DJHV
'
'DLO\ZRUNLQJWLPH
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH /&5
0D[LPXP FUDQHSURSRUWLRQDOLW\IDFWRU
:RUNHUSURSRUWLRQDOLW\ IDFWRU±7UDSH]RLGDOPRGHO
0D[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUV
>:.@
0HDQZDJHFRVW
>¼ZK@
$YDLODEOHZRUNDUHD
'DLO\SHUIRUPDQFH 12&$9
>FUDQHV@
12&237
>FUDQHV@
&&5('
>@
/&5&&,1&
>@
ǻ/&5&&,1&
>ZKPñ@
:$$9
>PðZN@
:$0,1
>PðZN@
:$5('
>@
/&5:$,1&
>@
ǻ/&5:$,1&
>ZKPñ@
/&5,1&
>@
/&5,1&
>ZKPñ@
1HZ/&5 7RWDOSDLGZRUNLQJKRXUV :DJHFRVWV
>ZKPñ@
%DVHOLQHGDWD
0LQLPXPZRUNDUHD
>G@
&
5HTXLUHGSHUIRUPDQFH±1RUPDO FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH 5HTXLUHGGDLO\SHUIRUPDQFH
&UDQHFDSDFLW\
>G@
FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH VKRUWHQLQJ
>KG@
>ZKPñ@
>:.FUDQH@
1RUPDOQXPEHURIZRUNHUV
>:.@
5HTXLUHGQXPEHURIZRUNHUV
>:.@
>PñG@
>@
>Pð@ >PñG@
>ZK@ >¼@
7DEOH &DOFXODWLRQWDEOHIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHDGGHG &ROXPQ& DQGDJJUHJDWHG &ROXPQ' ORVVHV RISURGXFWLYLW\
$GGLWLRQ )RU WKH DGGLWLRQ RI WKH ORVVHV RI SURGXFWLYLW\ ZH ILUVW FDOFXODWH WKH DYHUDJH UHTXLUHG QXPEHURIZRUNHUVDQGREWDLQDYDOXHRI PñG ZKPñ KG
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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Δ/&5&&,1&>@E\XVLQJ(T VHH5RZVDQG 7KHSHUFHQWDJHLQFUHDVHLQWKHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLVUHODWHGWRWKHEDVLFFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH &HOO& ZKLFKUHVXOWVLQDFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHRIZKPñLQWKHGHWHUPL QLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQ 7KH VHFRQGORVVRI SURGXFWLYLW\FRQVLGHUHGLQ WKLVH[DPSOH UHIHUVWRWKHDYDLODEOH ZRUN DUHD:$$9SHUZRUNHU>PðZRUNHU@ 5RZ )RUWKHGHWHUPLQLVWLFDGGLWLRQZHREWDLQDQ DYDLODEOHZRUNDUHDRIPðZRUNHU PðZRUNHUV 7KHDYDLODEOH ZRUNDUHDLVWKXVJUHDWHUWKDQWKHPLQLPXPZRUNDUHD PðZRUNHUVHH5RZ :H ILQG QHLWKHU D UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH ZRUN DUHD :$5(' >@ QRU DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQUDWHΔ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ñ 7KH PLQLPXP DPRXQWV WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ ZKPñ DQG WKH PD[LPXP LV DERXW ZKPñ DIWHU LWHUDWLRQV 7KH PLQLPXPLVWKXVHTXLYDOHQWWRWKHPLQLPXPLQSXWYDOXHRIWKHEDVLFODERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH$FFRUGLQJO\WKHLWHUDWLYHSURFHVVDOVRLQFOXGHGFDVHVLQZKLFKWKHUHZHUHQRRURQO\ YHU\ PLQRU ORVVHV RI SURGXFWLYLW\ ,Q RI WKH FDVHV VLPXODWHG IRU WKH DGGLWLRQ WKH LQFUHDVHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHUDQJHGIURP WRZKPñ
7KHDYDLODEOHZRUNDUHDLVUHODWHGWRWKHDYHUDJHQXPEHURIZRUNHUV)RUDPRUHGHWDLOHGDQDO\VLVZHZRXOGEHDEOHWR GLIIHUHQWLDWHEHWZHHQWKHUDPSXSPDLQDQGILQDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVHVLQFOXGLQJWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJDYDLODEOHZRUN DUHDDQGQXPEHURIZRUNHUV
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
,QFUHDVHG QHZ ODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH±$GGLWLRQ>ZKPñ@
,QFUHDVHG QHZ ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH±$GGLWLRQ >ZKPñ@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ +LVWRJUDP±,QFUHDVHG QHZ ODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH±$GGLWLRQ
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
)RUWKHFDOFXODWLRQZHGHILQHGDPD[LPXPRILQFUHPHQWDOLWHUDWLRQVDVWKHWHUPLQDWLRQFULWHULRQ
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
ZKLFKQRRURQO\DPLQRULQFUHDVHLQWKHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHRFFXUV ,IIRUH[DPSOHWKHPD[LPXPYDOXHRIWKHDYDLODEOHZRUNDUHDLVVHWYHU\KLJKWKHSURED ELOLW\ RI ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH LQFUHDVHV RFFXUULQJ GXH WR WKH QRQDGKHUHQFH WR WKH PLQLPXPZRUNDUHDZLOOEHFRUUHVSRQGLQJO\ORZHU
,QFUHDVHG QHZ ODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH>ZKPñ@
,QFUHDVHG QHZ ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH±$GGLWLRQ >ZKPñ@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
,QFUHDVHG QHZ ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH± $JJUHJDWLRQ>ZKPñ@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ +LVWRJUDP±,QFUHDVHG QHZ ODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH±&RPSDULVRQ±$GGLWLRQDJJUHJDWLRQ
,I WKH FRQWUDFWRU KDG EDVHG WKHLU IXUWKHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQV SULFLQJ DQG SURFHVV SODQQLQJ DFWLYLWLHV RQ D ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH RI ZKPñ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
%HQHILWIRUWKH&RQWUDFWRU
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
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ummer IRUDPRUHFRPSUHKHQVLYHUHIOHFWLRQRQWKH WRSLFRIDJJUHJDWLQJORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\
'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI6WRFNLQJ4XDQWLWLHV
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
&I6XKO0HOORXOL S II .XPPHU D
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
,GHDO SURFHVV
$
% 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
& 3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
)
(
' 'HVLJQ
33+
33+
33+
33+
$SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
-
,
+
*
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
33+ +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
2SHUDWLRQ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV &OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI VWRFNLQJTXDQWLWLHV
%LGGHU
&7
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ $ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV 'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV 33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
)LJ $OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
%DVLFV
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
LM
'), '52
'&2
')6
LM
'), '52
'&2
')6
LM
'), '52
'&2
LM
'), '52
'&
)LJ 5HLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQVIRUIORRUVODEV±&RQWLQXRXVIORZLQIRUPZRUNRSHUDWLRQV
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³UXQXS´RUFODVKRIUHLQIRUFLQJ ZLWKIRUPZRUNRSHUDWLRQVVKRXOGEHSUHYHQWHGVLQFHWKLVZRXOGFDXVHGLVUXSWLRQVWRWKH FRQVWUXFWLRQSURFHVV7KHERUGHUOLQHFDVH2))252 UHSUHVHQWVDQRUPDOVHTXHQFHLQ ZKLFK WKH UHLQIRUFLQJ RSHUDWLRQV EHJLQ RQO\ XSRQ WKH FRPSOHWLRQ RI IRUPZRUN LQVWDO ODWLRQ
'),
'52
F$
'&2
')6
2))252
)LJ 2IIVHWVWDUWHQGUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQIRUPZRUNDQGUHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQV
&I+RIVWDGOHU S I
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
:HXVH(T IRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHVODEIRUPZRUNVWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\IRUDFRQWLQXRXV IORZ SURFHVV ,Q WKH ILUVW WHUP ZH GHWHUPLQH WKH ZRUN VHFWLRQ DUHD E\ GLYLGLQJ WKH VWDQGDUG IORRU DUHD$6) >Pð@ E\ WKH QXPEHU RI ZRUN VHFWLRQV SHU IORRU QZV >@ ,Q WKH VHFRQGWHUPZHPXOWLSO\WKHGXUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNXVH'):8>G@E\WKHGDLO\IRUPZRUN SHUIRUPDQFH LQVWDOODWLRQRQO\ 39),>PðG@ 64 6)
$ 6) 39 ), ⋅ ' ):8 Q ZV
7KH GXUDWLRQ RI IRUPZRUN XVH '):8 >G@ LV WKH WLPH GXULQJ ZKLFK WKH IRUPZRUN LV LQVWDOOHGDQGWKXVERXQGLQWKHZRUNVHFWLRQ7KHIRUPZRUNZLOOQRWEHDYDLODEOHIRUDQ\ RWKHUXVHGXULQJWKLVSHULRG$GGLWLRQDOIRUPZRUNPXVWEHNHSWDYDLODEOHIRUWKLVSHULRGLQ DTXDQWLW\WKDWWKHIRUPZRUNWHDPLVDEOHWRSURFHVVGXULQJWKLVWLPH 7KHGXUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNXVH'):8FRPSULVHVWKHVXPRIWKHWLPHVIRUUHLQIRUFHPHQW '52 DQG FRQFUHWLQJ '&2 WKH IRUPZRUN VWULSSLQJ SHULRG ')6 PXOWLSOLHG E\ WKH UHGXFWLRQIDFWRUαDYOHVVWKHRIIVHWEHWZHHQIRUPZRUNRSHUDWLRQVDQGUHLQIRUFLQJ2))252 (T ' ):8
α DY ⋅ ' )6 ' 52 ' &2 ± 2) )252
:H LQWURGXFH WKH UHGXFWLRQ IDFWRU α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
7KHSRVVLELOLW\RIVWULSSLQJWKHVODEIRUPZRUNSULRUWRWKDWRIWKHSURSVFDQEHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWE\DVVXPLQJGLIIHUHQW GXUDWLRQVRIXVHIRUWKHSURSVDQGWKHVODEIRUPZRUN HJSDQHOVDQGORQJLWXGLQDOEHDPVLQFOXGLQJGURSKHDGVKRULQJ 6HH+RIVWDGOHU SII )RUPZRUNVWULSSLQJWLPHVVKRXOGEHWDNHQIURPWKHUHOHYDQWFRGHVVWDQGDUGVDQGJXLGHOLQHV,QDSSOLFDEOHVWDQGDUGV VWULSSLQJWLPHVDUHVWDWHGLQFDOHQGDUGD\V &I+RIVWDGOHU SII
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
6WDQGDUGIORRU DUHD $6)
4XDQWLWLHVSHUZRUN VHFWLRQ
6WDQGDUGIORRU DUHD $6)
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
'DLO\ZRUNLQJ WLPH
&DOFXODWLRQRI SHUIRUPDQFHYDOXHV DQGGXUDWLRQV UHLQIRUFLQJ
'DLO\ZRUNLQJ WLPH
,QSXWSDUDPHWHUV
5HGXFWLRQ IDFWRUĮDY
&DOFXODWLRQRIGXUDWLRQ RIIRUPZRUNXVH
5HGXFWLRQ IDFWRUĮDY
&DOFXODWLRQRI VWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\
6WDQGDUGIORRU DUHD $6)
)ORRUVODE WKLFNQHVVW
:RUNVHFWLRQV SHUIORRU QZV
)ORRUVODE WKLFNQHVVW
&RQFUHWH YROXPH
1XPEHURI ZRUNHUV UHLQIRUFLQJ :.52
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHIRUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ /&5),
/DERU FRQVXPSWLRQUDWH UHLQIRUFLQJ /&552
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHIRUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ /&5),
)RUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ SHUIRUPDQFH 39),
/DERU FRQVXPSWLRQUDWH UHLQIRUFLQJ /&552
5HLQIRUFLQJ SHUIRUPDQFH 3952
:RUNVHFWLRQV SHUIORRU QZV
)RUPZRUN DUHD
1XPEHURI ZRUNHUVIRUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ:.),
1XPEHURI ZRUNHUVIRUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ:.),
1XPEHURI ZRUNHUV UHLQIRUFLQJ :.52
5HLQIRUFHPHQW UDWLR UU
'XUDWLRQRI IRUPZRUN VWULSSLQJ ')6
5HLQIRUFHPHQW TXDQWLW\
'XUDWLRQRI IRUPZRUN VWULSSLQJ ')6
'XUDWLRQRI UHLQIRUFLQJ '52
:RUNVHFWLRQV SHUIORRU QZV
)RUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ SHUIRUPDQFH39),
'XUDWLRQRI FRQFUHWLQJ '&2
5HLQIRUFHPHQW UDWLR UU
5HLQIRUFHPHQW TXDQWLW\
'XUDWLRQRI UHLQIRUFLQJ '52
2IIVHW )2 ± 52 2))252
'XUDWLRQRI FRQFUHWLQJ '&2
'XUDWLRQRI IRUPZRUNXVH '):8
2IIVHW )2± 52 2))252
'XUDWLRQRI IRUPZRUN XVH '):8
6WRFNLQJ TXDQWLW\ 646)
)LJ &DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUW±'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIVWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\
7DVN
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³DVLV´ WR &ROXPQ ) ZKLFK PDNHV LW HDVLHU WR OLQN WKH FHOOV LQ ([FHO VLQFH RQO\ YDOXHV IURP &ROXPQ ) DUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH VXEVHTXHQW FDOFXODWLRQ VWHSV 8QFHUWDLQ SDUDPHWHUV DUH PRGHOHG DV WULDQJXODU GLVWULEXWLRQV DQG HQWHUHG LQ &ROXPQV ) EDVHG RQ WKH YDOXHV LQ &ROXPQV&'DQG(
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
1R
3DUDPHWHU
8QLW
0,1
0267 /,.(/
Pð@
)ORRUVODEWKLFNQHVV
W
>FP@
1XPEHURIIORRUV
QI
>@
1XPEHURIZRUNVHFWLRQVSHUIORRU
QZV
>@
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHIRUPZRUNLQVWDOODWLRQ
/&5),
>ZKPð@
1XPEHURIZRUNHUVIRUIRUPZRUNLQVWDOODWLRQ
:.),
>ZKK@
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHUHLQIRUFLQJ
/&552
>ZKW@
1XPEHURIZRUNHUVIRUUHLQIRUFLQJ
:.52
>ZKK@ >NJPñ@
5HLQIRUFHPHQWUDWLRLQUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHIORRUV
UU
'XUDWLRQRIFRQFUHWLQJ
'&2
>G@
'DLO\ZRUNLQJWLPH
:7
>KG@
'XUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNVWULSSLQJ
')6
>G@
)RUPZRUNLQVWDOODWLRQWRUHLQIRUFLQJRIIVHW
2))252
>G@
5HGXFWLRQIDFWRU
ɲDY
>@
7DEOH ,QSXWSDUDPHWHUVIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHVWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\RIVODEIRUPZRUN
&DOFXODWLRQDQG,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI5HVXOWV
7KHTXDQWLWLHVRIIRUPZRUNUHLQIRUFHPHQWDQGFRQFUHWHSHUZRUNVHFWLRQPXVWILUVWEH FDOFXODWHGLQRUGHUWRGHWHUPLQHWKHVWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\RIVODEIRUPZRUN6LQFHWKHLQSXW SDUDPHWHUV IRU WKH IORRU DUHD WKH QXPEHU RI ZRUN VHFWLRQV DQG WKH VODE WKLFNQHVV DUH GHILQHGDVGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXHVWKHIRUPZRUNDUHDDQGWKHFRQFUHWHYROXPHZLOODOVREH GHWHUPLQLVWLF 5HLQIRUFHPHQWTXDQWLW\SHUZRUNVHFWLRQ>W@
5HLQIRUFHPHQWTXDQWLW\SHU ZRUNVHFWLRQ>W@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ +LVWRJUDP±5HLQIRUFHPHQWTXDQWLW\SHUZRUNVHFWLRQ
7KHIRUPZRUNDUHDSHUZRUNVHFWLRQLVPð Pð 0XOWLSO\LQJWKLVDUHD E\ WKH IORRU VODE WKLFNQHVV UHVXOWV LQ D FRQFUHWH YROXPH SHU ZRUN VHFWLRQ RI Pñ Pð P
6WRSHQGIRUPZRUNLVQRWFRQVLGHUHG
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
7KHUHLQIRUFHPHQWUDWLRLVDQXQFHUWDLQLQSXWSDUDPHWHUDQGZDVWKXVPRGHOHGDVDWULDQ JXODU GLVWULEXWLRQ 0XOWLSOLFDWLRQ E\ WKH FRQFUHWH YROXPH JLYHV D WULDQJXODU KLVWRJUDP UHSUHVHQWLQJWKHUHLQIRUFHPHQWTXDQWLW\SHUZRUNVHFWLRQ VHH)LJ ,QWKHQH[WVWHSZHGHWHUPLQHWKHDYHUDJHSHUIRUPDQFHYDOXHV39),>PðG@IRUIRUPZRUN LQVWDOODWLRQ DQG 3952 >WG@ IRU UHLQIRUFLQJ )RU WKLV SXUSRVH ZH PXOWLSO\ WKH GDLO\ ZRUNLQJ WLPH :7 >KG@ E\ WKH QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV DQG GLYLGH WKH UHVXOW E\ WKH ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH )RU WKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI WKH IRUPZRUN SHUIRUPDQFH ZH DVVXPH WKDW DGGLWLRQDOZRUNHUVDUHXVHGIRUIRUPZRUNVWULSSLQJVRWKDWWKHDYHUDJHIRUPZRUNSHUIRU PDQFHFDQEHUHWDLQHG
)LJ +LVWRJUDPV±3HUIRUPDQFHYDOXHVIRUIRUPZRUNLQVWDOODWLRQDQGUHLQIRUFLQJ
7KHGDLO\ZRUNLQJWLPHZDVVHWDVDWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ __ KG 7KH QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV ZDV GHILQHG DV D GHWHUPLQLVWLF YDOXH IRU ERWK IRUPZRUN DQG UHLQIRUFLQJ RSHUDWLRQV VHH 5RZV DQG LQ 7DEOH 7KH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV RI IRUPZRUNDQGUHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQVDUHVXEMHFWWRXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGZHUHWKXVLQWHJUDWHG LQWRWKHFDOFXODWLRQDVWULDQJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQV VHH5RZVDQGLQ7DEOH
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
)LJ VKRZV D FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH KLVWRJUDPV UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH IRUPZRUN DQG UHLQIRUFLQJSHUIRUPDQFHYDOXHV7KHUHLVWKXVD SUREDELOLW\IRUWKHIRUPZRUNSHUIRU PDQFH WR OLH EHWZHHQ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ DQG PðG 7KH PHDQ DPRXQWV WR DERXW PðG :HREWDLQDPHDQUHLQIRUFLQJSHUIRUPDQFHRIDERXW WGZLWKDVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRI DSSUR[LPDWHO\WG:HILQGWKDWDSHUIRUPDQFHRIWGLVXQGHUUXQDQGDSHUIRU PDQFHRIWGLVH[FHHGHGLQRIDOOFDVHV ,I ZH GLYLGH WKH UHLQIRUFHPHQW TXDQWLW\ SHU ZRUN VHFWLRQ VHH )LJ E\ WKH UHLQIRUFLQJSHUIRUPDQFHZHJHWWKHKLVWRJUDPUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKHUHLQIRUFLQJ RSHUDWLRQVSHUZRUNVHFWLRQDVVKRZQLQ)LJ 7KH PHDQ GXUDWLRQ RI UHLQIRUFLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DPRXQWV WR DERXW G ZKLOH WKH TXDQWLOHLVDSSUR[LPDWHO\GDQGWKHTXDQWLOHLVG 'XUDWLRQRIUHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQV>G@
'XUDWLRQRIUHLQIRUFLQJ RSHUDWLRQV>G@ 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ +LVWRJUDP±'XUDWLRQRIUHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQV
:HLQVHUWWKHGHWHUPLQLVWLFDQGSUREDELOLVWLFLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVDVZHOODVWKHGXUDWLRQRI UHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQVFDOFXODWHGDVDQLQWHUPHGLDWHUHVXOWLQ(T WRGHWHUPLQHWKH GXUDWLRQ RI IRUPZRUN XVH :H REWDLQ WKH GXUDWLRQ RI IRUPZRUN XVH '):8 >G@ DV D KLVWRJUDP UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH SHUIRUPHG 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQ VHH )LJ 7KH PLQLPXPGXUDWLRQ DWLWHUDWLRQV DPRXQWVWRDERXWGZKLOHWKHPD[LPXPLV DSSUR[LPDWHO\G:HWKXVJHWDPHDQRIGZLWKDVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRI G
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
'XUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNXVH>G@
'XUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNXVH >G@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ +LVWRJUDP±'XUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNXVH
&RPELQLQJWKHGXUDWLRQRIIRUPZRUNXVH'):8>G@ZLWKWKHIRUPZRUNLQVWDOODWLRQSHUIRU PDQFH39),>PðG@WKHVWDQGDUGIORRUDUHD$6)>Pð@DQGWKHQXPEHURIZRUNVHFWLRQVSHU IORRUQZV>@LQ(T UHVXOWVLQWKHVWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\RIVODEIRUPZRUN646)>Pð@ VHH)LJ 7KH PHDQ VWRFNLQJ TXDQWLW\ DPRXQWV WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ Pð ZKHUHDV WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQHTXDOVDERXWPð7KHVLPXODWLRQZLWKLWHUDWLRQVUHVXOWVLQDPLQLPXP VWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\RIDSSUR[LPDWHO\PðDQGDPD[LPXPVWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\RIDERXW Pð,IIRUH[DPSOHWKHFRQWUDFWRUZDQWHGWRFRYHURIWKHFDVHV FKDQFH ZLWK LWVVWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\WKH\ZRXOGKDYHWRVWRFNDSSUR[LPDWHO\ PðRIVODEIRUPZRUN RQVLWH IRU WKH VFKHGXOHG SURGXFWLRQ VHTXHQFH FRQWLQXRXV IORZ DQG IRXU ZRUN VHFWLRQV SHU IORRU DQG WKH SODQQHG XWLOL]DWLRQ RI UHVRXUFHV LH WKH QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV GDLO\ ZRUNLQJKRXUVHWF 6ODEIRUPZRUNVWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\>Pð@
6ODEIRUPZRUNVWRFNLQJ TXDQWLW\>Pð@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ +LVWRJUDP±6ODEIRUPZRUNVWRFNLQJTXDQWLW\
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
%HQHILWIRUWKH&RQWUDFWRU
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
3URFXUHPHQW2SWLPL]DWLRQ
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
,GHDO SURFHVV
33+ %
$ 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
33+
33+
'HVLJQ
)
(
'
&
$SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
33+
33+
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
-
,
+
*
+DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
2SHUDWLRQ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV &OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
3URFXUHPHQW RSWLPL]DWLRQ
%LGGHU
&7
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV
$ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
)LJ $OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
$VLPLODUSUREOHPDULVHVZKHQVXSSO\LQJFRQVWUXFWLRQVLWHVZLWKGLIIHUHQWPDWHULDOVIURPD YDULHW\RIVWRFNV,QWKLVFDVHWKHRSWLPL]DWLRQSURFHVVLQYROYHVPLQLPL]LQJWKHFRVWVRI SXUFKDVHDQGRUWUDQVSRUW DVVXPLQJLGHQWLFDOPDWHULDOFRVWV
%DVLFV
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
6XFKDVWKH5,6.2SWLPL]HURSWLPL]DWLRQWRROLQWHJUDWHGLQ#5LVN
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
*OREDOPD[LPXP RSWLPXP
5HVXOW
/RFDOPD[LPXP
< Pñ@
$
%
&RQFUHWHSODQW &RQFUHWHSODQW &RQFUHWHSODQW
7DEOH &DSDFLWLHVRIUHDG\PL[HGFRQFUHWHSODQWV
7KH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ VLWHV YDU\ ZLWK WKH ODUJHVW DPRXQW RI FRQFUHWH WR EH SRXUHG RQ 6LWH DQG WKH VPDOOHVW RQ 6LWH VHH 7DEOH 2YHUDOO Pñ RI FRQFUHWH DUH UHTXLUHG 7KLV YROXPH FDQ EH SURYLGHG RQO\ LI WKH WKUHH UHDG\ PL[HG FRQFUHWH SODQWV DUH FRPELQHG7KH FRQWUDFWRU¶V DLP LV WR LGHQWLI\ WKH PRVW FRVW HIIHFWLYHRUGHUFRPELQDWLRQ 1R
6LWHGHPDQG &RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH $
&RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH &RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH &RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH
>Pñ@ %
7DEOH &RQFUHWHGHPDQGRIFRQVWUXFWLRQVLWHV
,UUHVSHFWLYHRIWKHSODQWWKHFDSDFLW\SHUWUXFNPL[HULQYDULDEO\DPRXQWVWRPñ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
7KHVWDWHGFDSDFLWLHVDUHWKRVHWKDWWKHSODQWVKDYHFRPPLWWHGIRUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQVLWHVFRQFHUQHGVLQFHWKH\DOVRKDYH WRGHOLYHUFRQFUHWHWRRWKHUVLWHVORFDWHGZLWKLQWKHLUVXSSO\DUHD
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
1R
)URP
2UGHU &RQFUHWHSODQW
$
&RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH &RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH &RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH 7RWDOGHOLYHU\ &DSDFLW\
&RQFUHWHSODQW
&RQFUHWHSODQW
7RWDOVLWH GHOLYHU\
6LWHGHPDQG
%
&
'
(
)
7DEOH 2UGHULQJPDWUL[
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ñSHUWUXFNPL[HU,QWKLV FRQWH[W LW VKRXOG EH QRWHG WKDW QRW DOO WUDQVSRUWV DUH ILOOHG FRPSOHWHO\ 2WKHUZLVH WKH FDSDFLWLHV RI LQGLYLGXDO PL[LQJ SODQWV PD\ EH H[FHHGHG RU WKH GHOLYHU\ WR RQH RI WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQVLWHVPD\EHWRRODUJH 1R 1XPEHURIWUDQVSRUWF\FOHV &RQFUHWHSODQW
$
&RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH &RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH &RQVWUXFWLRQVLWH
%
&RQFUHWHSODQW &
&RQFUHWHSODQW '
7DEOH 1XPEHURIWUDQVSRUWF\FOHV
)RUWKHGHWHUPLQLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQEDVHGRQWKHPHDQYDOXHVZHREWDLQWKHQXPEHURIWUDQV SRUWV SHU GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ WKH UHDG\PL[ SODQW DQG WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VLWH DFFRUGLQJ WR 7DEOH 7KH PHDQ RI WKH WULDQJXODU GLVWULEXWLRQ 0,1 ¼NP 0267 /,.(/@ UHSUHVHQWV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH DYHUDJH :.$9* DQG WKH PD[LPXP :.0$; QXPEHURIZRUNHUV 0D[LPXPQXPEHU RIZRUNHUV $YHUDJH QXPEHURI ZRUNHUV
E
D 5DPSXSSKDVH
0DLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH
)LQDOSKDVH
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH
)LJ 7UDSH]RLGDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIZRUNHUVRYHUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQSHULRG±4XDOLWDWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
)RU WKH EXLOGLQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURMHFW FRQVLGHUHG LQ WKLV H[DPSOH ZH DVVXPH D SURSRU WLRQDOIDFWRUIRUZRUNHUVRIUHVXOWLQJLQDPD[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUVRIDSSUR[L PDWHO\ :. 0$;
:. $9* I :.
:. ≈ :.
:HREWDLQWKHVKDUHRIWKHPDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH'03>G@LQWKHWRWDOWLPHIRUUHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV'5&2>G@IURPWKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQIRUWKHWUDSH]RLGDOGLVWULEXWLRQ VKRZQTXDOLWDWLYHO\LQ)LJ ⋅ ' 5&2 ⋅ :. $9* ± ' 5&2 :. 0$;
' 03
,QVHUWLQJWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJYDOXHVLQ(T UHVXOWVLQDPDLQSKDVHRIGD\V ' 03
⋅ G ⋅ :. ± G ≈ G :.
7KHUDPSXSSKDVH'53>G@LVGHWHUPLQHGDFFRUGLQJWR(T ZKLOHWKHILQDOSKDVH ')3>G@LVFDOFXODWHGDVRQHWKLUGRIWKHUDPSXSSKDVH ' 53
⋅ ( ' 5&2 ± ' 03 )
7KLVUHVXOWVLQDUDPSXSSKDVHRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\GD\V> GG @DQGD ILQDOSKDVHRIDERXWGD\V G IRUWKHUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQVLQWKH EXLOGLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQ (DFK RI WKHVH SKDVHVLV DOVRDVVRFLDWHG ZLWKD GLIIHUHQWGDLO\ SHUIRUPDQFH RZLQJWR WKH GLIIHUHQW QXPEHU RI ZRUNHUV XVHG LQ WKH LQGLYLGXDO SKDVHV RI WKH UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV7KHDYHUDJHGDLO\SHUIRUPDQFHLQWKHUDPSXSDQGILQDOSKDVHVRIUHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV395&253 )3>PñG@LVFDOFXODWHGXVLQJWKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQ 39 5&253 )3
:. 0$; ⋅ :7 ⋅ /&5 5&2
)RUWKHUDPSXSDQGILQDOSKDVHVZHWKXVREWDLQDQDYHUDJHGDLO\SHUIRUPDQFHRIDSSUR[L PDWHO\PñG> ZRUNHUV KG ZKPñ @ :HXVHWKHSHUIRUPDQFHHTXDWLRQDQGLQVHUWWKHPD[LPXPQXPEHURIZRUNHUVLQRUGHUWR GHWHUPLQHWKHDYHUDJHGDLO\SHUIRUPDQFHGXULQJWKHPDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH395&203 >PñG@ 39 5&203
:. 0$; ⋅ :7 /&5 5&2
)RU WKH PDLQ SKDVH ZH JHW DQ DYHUDJH SHUIRUPDQFH RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PñG > ZRUNHUV KG ZKPñ @ &DOFXODWLQJ WKH GXUDWLRQV RI WKH WKUHH FRQVWUXFWLRQ SKDVHV DV ZHOO DV WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ SHUIRUPDQFHYDOXHVPDNHVLWSRVVLEOHWRSORWWKHWDUJHWSURJUHVVRIWKHUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQVRYHUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQSHULRGLQDGLDJUDP VHH)LJ
3URJUHVVRI UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV >@ 3URJUHVVRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHZRUNV>@
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
&RQWUDFWXDO WDUJHW
7DUJHWFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV
&RQWUDFWXDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>G@
0DLQFRQVWUXFWLRQ SKDVH
5DPSXS SKDVH
)LQDOSKDVH
)LJ 7DUJHWFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV
,QWKHFRXUVHRIWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNUHFRUGVRIWKHDOUHDG\FRPSOHWHGLQVWDOODWLRQRIWKH LQGLFDWLYH TXDQWLW\ RI WKH UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV ZLOO EH FRQWLQXRXVO\ XSGDWHG 7DEOHVKRZVWKHYROXPHRIFRQFUHWHSRXUHGGXULQJWKHILUVWZRUNLQJGD\V7KLV LQVWDOOHGTXDQWLW\ZDVUHFRUGHGFRQWLQXRXVO\DWLQWHUYDOVRIZRUNLQJGD\V ZHHNV 7KHVKRUWHUWKHVHOHFWHGLQWHUYDOVWKHJUHDWHUWKHQXPEHURIGDWDSRLQWVZLOOEHWKDWWKH UHJUHVVLRQRUWUHQGDQDO\VHVFDQEHEDVHGRQ $FWXDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV &RRUGLQDWH SRLQWV
&RQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH
$
%
G G G G G G G G G G G G G
7DEOH $FWXDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV
3RXUHG FRQFUHWH YROXPH
3HUIRUPDQFH YDOXH
6KDUHRISRXUHG FRQFUHWHYROXPHLQ WRWDOYROXPH
&
'
(
Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ Pñ
PñG PñG PñG PñG PñG PñG PñG PñG PñG PñG PñG PñG
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
7KHFRRUGLQDWHSRLQWVRIWKHGRFXPHQWHGDFWXDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVDUHHQWHUHGLQ)LJ 7KHDEVFLVVDVKRZVWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHDQGWKHRUGLQDWHVKRZVWKHFXPXODWLYH SURJUHVVRIWKHUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQVDVDSHUFHQWDJH7KLVGLDJUDPDOVRLQFOXGHV WKHWDUJHWFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV
3URJUHVVRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHZRUNV>@ 3URJUHVVRI UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV >@
7KHGLDJUDPUHYHDOVWKDWWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVLQLWLDOO\ODJJHGEHKLQGWKHWDUJHWLQWKH UDPSXSSKDVHEXWLWVXEVHTXHQWO\DFFHOHUDWHGEH\RQGWKHWDUJHWDWWKHHQGRIWKHUDPSXS SKDVHDQGXQWLOWKHHQGRIWKHILUVWKDOIRIWKHPDLQSKDVH
7DUJHWFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV $FWXDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV
&RQWUDFWXDO WDUJHW
&RQWUDFWXDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>G@
)LJ 7DUJHWDFWXDOFRPSDULVRQ±&RQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV
2XUDLPLVWRSURYLGHDIRUHFDVWRIWKHVXEVHTXHQWFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVE\PHDQVRIWUHQG DQDO\VHVEDVHGRQWKHZRUNFRPSOHWHGVRIDU,QVRGRLQJZHUHO\RQERWKGHWHUPLQLVWLF DQGSUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGV:HDOVRPDNHDGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQDQLQWHUYDOEDVHGDQGDQ RYHUDOODQDO\VLV
0RGHOLQJ
)LJVKRZVWKHZRUNIORZIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIWUHQGDQDO\VLV)LUVWO\ZHQHHG WR GLVWLQJXLVK LI WKH LQWHUYDO DW ZKLFK WKH DFWXDO GDWD LV FROOHFWHG LV IL[HG IRU LQVWDQFH HYHU\ GD\V RU YDULDEOH ,UUHVSHFWLYH RI WKLV FRQVLGHUDWLRQ ZH GHWHUPLQH WKH SURSRU WLRQDOSURJUHVVSHULQWHUYDO:HWKHQQHHGWRGHFLGHZKHWKHURUQRWWRGLIIHUHQWLDWHEHWZHHQ WKHUDPSXSPDLQDQGILQDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVHV (LWKHURIWKHDSSURDFKHVDOORZVIRUGHWHUPLQLVWLFWUHQGDQDO\VHV OLQHDURUQRQOLQHDUWUHQG DQDO\VHVFURVVLQJWKHFRRUGLQDWHRULJLQRUQRW DVZHOODVSUREDELOLVWLFIRUHFDVWV)RUWKH SUREDELOLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQVLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRFRQVLGHUZKHWKHURUQRWDGLVWLQFWLRQLVWREH PDGHEHWZHHQWKHLQGLYLGXDOSURMHFWSKDVHVIRUWKHSXUSRVHRIGHILQLQJWKHGLVWULEXWLRQVRI WKHSURSRUWLRQDOSURMHFWSURJUHVV,IZHXVHDYDULDEOHLQWHUYDOIRUGRFXPHQWLQJWKHDFWXDO SURJUHVV DQ DGGLWLRQDO GLVWULEXWLRQ PXVW EH GHILQHG IRU WKH REVHUYDWLRQ LQWHUYDO ,Q
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
DGGLWLRQDFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHREVHUYDWLRQLQWHUYDODQGWKHSURMHFWSURJUHVVVKRXOGEH FRQVLGHUHGLIUHTXLUHG$FFRUGLQJO\DQ\GHFLVLRQLQIDYRURIDYDULDEOHLQWHUYDOZLOOLQHYL WDEO\ LQWHJUDWH DGGLWLRQDO XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQWR WKH PRGHO ZKLFK FDQ EH H[FOXGHG UHODWLYHO\ HDVLO\E\DFRQVWDQWREVHUYDWLRQLQWHUYDO 3UHSDUDWLRQXSGDWHRIWKH7$5*(7 6+28/'%( SURFHVV 'HILQLWLRQRIWKH REVHUYDWLRQGRFXPHQWDWLRQLQWHUYDO
)L[HGLQWHUYDO HJHYHU\GD\V
9DULDEOHLQWHUYDO
&ROOHFWLRQDQGGRFXPHQWDWLRQRI $&78$/GDWD LQFOGHOLPLWDWLRQ &DOFXODWLRQRIWKHSURJUHVV SURSRUWLRQVSHULQWHUYDO
1R
'LIIHUHQWLDWLRQLQWR UDPSXSPDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQ DQGILQDOSKDVHV
@ 3URJUHVVRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHZRUNV>@
%\ZD\RIH[DPSOHZHGHWHUPLQHWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVSUHGLFWHGDIWHU GD\V VHH )LJ 7KLV TXHU\ DOVR XVHV OLQHDU LQWHUSRODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH FDOFXODWHG IXWXUH FRRUGLQDWHSRLQWVWRREWDLQDKLVWRJUDPEDVHGRQWKHSRWHQWLDOSURJUHVVFXUYHVWDNHQIURP WKH0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQ
$FWXDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV 0HDQ 0HDQOHVVRQHVWGGHY 0HDQSOXVRQHVWGGHY TXDQWLOH TXDQWLOH &XUUHQWLWHUDWLRQYDOXH
&RQWUDFWXDO WDUJHW
&RQWUDFWXDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH
G
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>G@
)LJ $FWXDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVLQFOXGLQJIRUHFDVWRIVXEVHTXHQWFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV±+LVWR JUDPRIFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVIRUDVSHFLILFFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH G
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
&RQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVIRUDVSHFLILFFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH GD\V
&RQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVIRUD VSHFLILFFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH GD\V 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ +LVWRJUDPUHSUHVHQWLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVIRUDVSHFLILFFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH GD\V
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
)LJ 'DWDILWWLQJRIWKHSHUFHQWDJHSURJUHVVLQFUHDVHRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQVEDVHGRQ KLVWRULFDOUDPSXSSKDVHGDWD WRG
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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
)LJ 'DWDILWWLQJRIWKHSHUFHQWDJHSURJUHVVLQFUHDVHRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQVEDVHGRQ KLVWRULFDOPDLQSKDVHGDWD WRG
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
7KHSHUFHQWDJHLQFUHDVHLQSURJUHVVDWDFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHRIGD\VLVWKXVLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRWKHGDWDILWWLQJRIERWK WKHUDPSXSDQGWKHPDLQFRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVH
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
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
3URJUHVVRI UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV >@ 3URJUHVVRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHZRUNV>@
)LJLOOXVWUDWHVWKHVKLIWIURPWKHPDLQWRWKHILQDOSKDVHE\DGLSLQWKHIRUHFDVW FXUYHVYLVLEOHDWDFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHRIGD\V
$FWXDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV 0HDQ 0HDQOHVVRQHVWGGHY 0HDQSOXVRQHVWGGHY TXDQWLOH TXDQWLOH &XUUHQWLWHUDWLRQYDOXH 7DUJHWFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV
&RQWUDFWXDO WDUJHW
&RQWUDFWXDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ WLPH
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH>G@
)LJ $FWXDOFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVVLQFOXGLQJIRUHFDVWRIVXEVHTXHQWFRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV±+LVWR JUDPIRUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHXSRQDFKLHYLQJWKHFRQWUDFWXDOWDUJHW±'LIIHUHQWLDWHGIRUHFDVW PHWKRG
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
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHZKHQ UHDFKLQJWKHFRQWUDFWXDO WDUJHW FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURJUHVV
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
&RQVWUXFWLRQWLPHZKHQ UHDFKLQJWKHFRQWUDFWXDO WDUJHW±'LIIHUHQWLDWHG IRUHFDVWPHWKRG
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ &RPSDULVRQRIKLVWRJUDPVUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHZKHQUHDFKLQJWKHFRQWUDFWXDO WDUJHW FRQVWUXFWLRQSURJUHVV
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
%HQHILWIRUWKH&RQWUDFWRU
)LJLOOXVWUDWHVWKHEHQHILWVRIWUHQGDQDO\VHVDQGSUREDELOLVWLFIRUHFDVWLQJPHWKRGV IRU WKH FRQWUDFWRU 7KHVH PHWKRGV FRQVWLWXWH HVVHQWLDO FRQWUROOLQJ LQVWUXPHQWV LQ WKH H[HFXWLRQ RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURMHFWV 7KH\ IRFXV QRW RQO\ RQ DFWLYLWLHV DQG SURFHVVHV FRPSOHWHG LQ SDVW SHULRGV,QVWHDG WKH\ DOVR XVH SURMHFWVSHFLILF KLVWRULFDO GDWD GHULYHG
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
IURPWKHSDVWWRGUDZFRQFOXVLRQVUHJDUGLQJSRVVLEOHIXWXUHWUHQGV$SSO\LQJSUREDELOLVWLF IRUHFDVWLQJPHWKRGVQRWRQO\DOORZVIRULQGLYLGXDOGHWHUPLQLVWLFQXPHULFDOYDOXHVWREH XVHGDVSRLQWHVWLPDWRUV6XFKPHWKRGVDOVRSHUPLWDVVHVVPHQWVUHODWLYHWRWKHH[SHFWHG FKDQFHULVNUDWLR,IIRUH[DPSOHWKHULVNRIDVSHFLILHGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHEHLQJH[FHHGHG LV WRR KLJK FRXQWHUPHDVXUHV PXVW EH LQLWLDWHG LQ RUGHU WR DFKLHYH D WXUQDURXQG LQ WKH SURJUHVVRIWKHSURMHFW
%HQHILWVRIWUHQGDQDO\VLVUHVXOWV
)ROORZXS 7LPHO\FRPSDULVRQ DQGLGHQWLILFDWLRQRI GHYLDWLRQVEHWZHHQ 7$5*(76+28/' %(DQG$&78$/
0DQDJHPHQWDQG FRQWURO 3URDFWLYHDGMXVWPHQW RIWKHW\SHQXPEHU DQGFRPELQDWLRQRI SURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV
)RUHFDVW
&RPPXQLFDWLRQ
'RFXPHQWDWLRQ
)RUHFDVWVSDUWLFXODUO\ ZLWKLQFRPSOH[ G\QDPLFV\VWHPV EDVHGRQKLVWRULFDO SURMHFWVSHFLILFGDWD FRYHULQJDFHUWDLQ SHULRG
&RQYH\LQJ LQIRUPDWLRQRQFXUUHQW DQGIXWXUH GHYHORSPHQWVERWK IRULQWHUQDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQG H[WHUQDOO\WRRWKHU FRQWUDFWRUV VXEFRQWUDFWRUVDQG WKHFOLHQW
6XSSRUWLQJ GRFXPHQWDWLRQRI UHVRXUFHXWLOL]DWLRQ DQGRXWSXWLQFOXGLQJ LQWHUUXSWLRQVDQGZRUN DFFHOHUDWLRQ PHDVXUHV± 5HFRUGLQJWKH FLUFXPVWDQFHVRI ZRUNSHUIRUPDQFHDV DEDVLVIRU UHFRQVWUXFWLQJFDXVH HIIHFWUHODWLRQVKLSV
)LJ %HQHILWVRIWUHQGDQDO\VHVDQGIRUHFDVWVEDVHGRQKLVWRULFDOGDWD
:KHQLQWHUSUHWLQJWKHVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWVLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRQRWHZKHWKHUWKHGRFXPHQWHG SHUFHQWDJHFKDQJHVLQSURJUHVVZHUHLQFOXGHGLQWKHGDWDILWWLQJDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\LQWKH VLPXODWLRQ LQ WKHLU HQWLUHW\ RU GLIIHUHQWLDWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH LQGLYLGXDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ SKDVHV LHUDPSXSPDLQDQGILQDO ,QWKHDERYHH[DPSOHDOODYDLODEOHGDWDSRLQWVZHUHLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWKHGDWDILWWLQJRIWKH SHUFHQWDJHSURJUHVVFKDQJH,ILQWKHFRXUVHRIWKHSURMHFWLQGLYLGXDOSDUWLFXODUO\VPDOO RU ODUJH SHUFHQWDJH FKDQJHV FDQ EH WUDFHG EDFN WR D VSHFLILF FDXVH WKDW LV QR ORQJHU H[SHFWHG WR RFFXU GXULQJ IXUWKHU H[HFXWLRQ DQ HOLPLQDWLRQ RI WKLV GDWD UHFRUG IURP WKH IRUHFDVWFDOFXODWLRQRUIURPWKHILWWLQJPD\EHFRQVLGHUHGLQRUGHUWROLPLWWKHUDQJHRI SRVVLEOHFKDQJHVLQSURJUHVVDQGWRREWDLQPRUHUHDOLVWLFIRUHFDVWVIRUWKHSHULRGFRQVL GHUHG 7KHSURFHGXUHH[SODLQHGDERYHDQGWKHPHWKRGRORJ\XVHGIRUUHYLHZLQJWKHSURJUHVVRI UHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQVFDQDOVREHWUDQVIHUUHGWRRWKHUZRUNVRUSUREOHPVVXFKDV ZLWKUHJDUGWRFRVWFRQWURORUFRQVXPSWLRQRISDLGZRUNLQJKRXUV )RUHFDVWDFFXUDF\ZLOOHVVHQWLDOO\GHSHQGRQWKHTXDOLW\DQGGHOLPLWDWLRQRIWKHXQGHUO\LQJ GRFXPHQWDWLRQ ,I WKH ODWWHU LV QRW GRQH DW UHJXODU LQWHUYDOV DV LQ WKH JLYHQ H[DPSOH D VHFRQGGDWDILWWLQJIRUWKHGLIIHUHQFHVRIWKHREVHUYDWLRQWLPHVPXVWEHLQWHJUDWHGLQWRWKH FDOFXODWLRQ ,Q VR GRLQJ FRQVLGHUDWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ SRVVLEOH FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH LQWHUYDORIREVHUYDWLRQWLPHVDQGWKHSHUFHQWDJHRISURMHFWSURJUHVVVKRXOGDOVREHWDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW$ VWURQJ SRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW LV DVVXPHG LQ WKLV FDVH EHFDXVH
,QWKLVFDVHWKHDFWXDOQXPEHURISDLGZRUNLQJKRXUVLVXVXDOO\HDV\WRJOHDQIURPWKHGDLO\ZRUNUHSRUWVRQDFRQWL QXRXVEDVLV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
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
:HDWKHU,PSDFW
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
,GHDO SURFHVV
$
% 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
& 3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
)
(
' 'HVLJQ
33+
33+
33+
33+
$SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
-
,
+
*
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
33+ +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
2SHUDWLRQ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV &OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
%LGGHU
&7 :HDWKHULPSDFW
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ $ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV 'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV 33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
)LJ $OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
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
%DVLFV
:HDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVLQIOXHQFHWKHSHUIRUPDQFHFDSDFLW\RIWKHSURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV,QWKH FDVH RI RXWGRRU DFWLYLWLHV SUHYDLOLQJ H[WHUQDO WHPSHUDWXUHV DUH RQH RI WKH IDFWRUV WKDW GHWHUPLQHWKHDELOLW\RIZRUNHUVWRSHUIRUP$WUHODWLYHO\ORZWHPSHUDWXUHVSHRSOHZKR FDUU\ RXW ZRUN RQ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VLWH DUH QR ORQJHU DEOH WR GR VR DW WKHLU ³QRUPDO´ SURGXFWLYLW\ OHYHO EHFDXVH IRU LQVWDQFH WKHLU PRYHPHQW SDWWHUQV DUH REVWUXFWHG E\ ZDUPHU ZRUN ZHDU VXFK DV WKLFNHU JORYHV 3URGXFWLYLW\ LV DOVR UHGXFHG E\ EUHDNV IRU ZDUPLQJ XS RU UHSRVLWLRQLQJ FORWKHV ,Q DGGLWLRQ RQVLWH KHDWLQJ HTXLSPHQW PD\ FUHDWH DGGLWLRQDOREVWDFOHVWRWKHPRYHPHQWSDWWHUQVRIZRUNHUV:KHQZRUNLQJDWORZWHPSHUD WXUHV WKH DFFXUDF\ DQG VZLIWQHVV ZLWK ZKLFK LQGLYLGXDO ZRUN VWHSV DUH FRPSOHWHG LV UHGXFHGZKLFKOHDGVWRORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
,QWKHKRWVHDVRQSURGXFWLYLW\LVORZHUHGIRULQVWDQFHE\DGGLWLRQDOEUHDNVWRUHOD[DQG GULQNZKLFKOHDGWRDJHQHUDOGHFUHDVHLQWKHSHUIRUPDQFHFDSDFLW\RIZRUNHUV+LJKHU WHPSHUDWXUHVPD\DOVRQHFHVVLWDWHZHDULQJRISURWHFWLYHJORYHVZKHQZRUNLQJZLWKVWHHO IRU H[DPSOH ZKLFK DJDLQ FDQ SRWHQWLDOO\ VORZ GRZQ PRYHPHQW SDWWHUQV 3HUVRQDO SURWHFWLYHHTXLSPHQWKDVDGLVUXSWLYHHIIHFWDQGLQFUHDVHVWKHKHDWORDG ,Q WKH OLWHUDWXUH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH RSWLPDO GD\WLPH WHPSHUDWXUH IRU GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI ZRUNFDQEHIRXQGLQWKHZRUNVRIKoehn/BrownThomas/YiakoumisOglesby et al.DQG FetznerWRQDPHEXWDIHZVRXUFHV 7KHDQDO\VHVFRQGXFWHGE\Koehn/BrownVXJJHVWDQRSWLPDOWHPSHUDWXUHUDQJHEHWZHHQ &DQG&LQGHSHQGHQWO\RIUHODWLYHKXPLGLW\ Thomas/Yiakoumis VWDWH DQ RSWLPDO GD\WLPH WHPSHUDWXUH UDQJH IRU ODERU SURGXFWLYLW\ EHWZHHQ&DQG&DWDUHODWLYHKXPLGLW\EHWZHHQDQG Oglesby et al. VSHFLI\DQRSWLPDOGD\WLPHWHPSHUDWXUHUDQJLQJIURP&WR& Fetzner GLIIHUHQWLDWHV EHWZHHQ VSHFLILF DFWLYLWLHV IRU WKH SXUSRVH RI GHILQLQJ RSWLPDO GD\WLPHWHPSHUDWXUHV+HVWDWHV&IRUPDVRQU\RSHUDWLRQV&IRUFRQFUHWLQJDQG &IRUIRUPZRUNDQGUHLQIRUFLQJRSHUDWLRQV 6XERSWLPDOGD\WLPHWHPSHUDWXUHVLQIOXHQFHWKHODERUSURGXFWLYLW\RIZRUNHUVDQGKDYHDQ HIIHFW RQ WKH UHTXLUHG SDLG ZRUNLQJ KRXUV >ZK@ IRU LQVWDQFH RQ WKH QXPEHU RI KRXUV QHHGHG WR SURGXFH RQH FXELF PHWHU RI UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH 7KLV UDWLR RI SDLG ZRUNLQJ KRXUVWRWKHXQLWRITXDQWLW\SURGXFHGLVUHIHUUHGWRDVODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH>ZKPñ@ /DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHVDQGSURGXFWLYLW\DUHGLUHFWO\FRUUHODWHGWRRQHDQRWKHU3URGXF WLYLW\ LV UHGXFHG LI WKH ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH LQFUHDVHV DQG YLFH YHUVD 7KH UHODWLYH FKDQJHLQSURGXFWLYLW\ǻ3/>@FDQEHGHWHUPLQHGXVLQJ(T )RUWKLVSXUSRVH WKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHEDVHOLQHDQGWKHDFWXDOSURGXFWLYLW\LVFDOFXODWHGDQGGLYLGHG E\WKHEDVHOLQHSURGXFWLYLW\7KHEDVHOLQHSURGXFWLYLW\IROORZVIURPWKHUHFLSURFDORIWKH WDUJHW ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH /&57$5* >ZKPñ@ ZKLOH WKH DFWXDO SURGXFWLYLW\ GHULYHV IURPWKHUHFLSURFDORIWKHDFWXDOODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH/&5$&7>ZKPñ@
Δ3/
§ ± · ¨ /&5 7$5* /&5 $&7¸ ¨ ¸ ⋅ ¨ ¸ © ¹ /&5 $&7
,QDQH[SHUWVXUYH\ZDVFRQGXFWHGDW*UD]8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\DPRQJ $XVWULDQDQG*HUPDQUHVSRQGHQWVIURPFRQVWUXFWLRQWUDGHVDQGLQGXVWU\ZKRKDGDQ DYHUDJH SURIHVVLRQDO H[SHULHQFH RI \HDUV PLQLPXP \HDUV PD[LPXP \HDUV 2QHRIWKHRXWFRPHVRIWKLVVXUYH\ZDVWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHRSWLPDOGD\WLPHWHPSH UDWXUHDW& UREXVWPHDQHVWLPDWRU ZKHUHZRUNHUVHQMR\LGHDOFRQGLWLRQVWRDFKLHYH WKHLUQRUPDOSURGXFWLYLW\OHYHO
&I.RHKQ%URZQ S II
&I7KRPDV@GHULYHGIURPWKH0 HVWLPDWRUV VWDWHG LQ WKH H[SHUW UHVSRQVHV E\ LQVHUWLQJ WKH WHPSHUDWXUH703 >&@ LQ (T 7KLVDSSURDFKLVYDOLGIRU&703&DQG&703& Δ/&5 ,1&703
⋅ 703 ⋅ 703 ± ⋅ 703
'DLO\WHPSHUDWXUH0HVWLPDRU 'D\WLPH WHPSHUDWXUH ± 0HVWLPDWRU
&
,QFUHDVHLQODERXUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH>@ ,QFUHDVH LQODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH>@
'DLO\WHPSHUDWXUH>&@ 'D\WLPH WHPSHUDWXUH >&@
)LJ /DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHPHDQGD\WLPHWHPSHUDWXUH±5HLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV
7DVN
7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQVGLVFXVVDZRUNHGH[DPSOHWKDWXVHVSUREDELOLVWLFLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV WRFRQVLGHUORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\RUODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHVGXHWRVXERSWLPDO PHDQGD\WLPHWHPSHUDWXUHV
&I+RIVWDGOHU SI
&I+RIVWDGOHU S
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
7KLVH[DPSOHUHODWHVWRWKH2SHUD+RXVHSURMHFWLQ/LQ]$XVWULDDQGH[FOXVLYHO\DQDO\]HV UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH RSHUDWLRQV 7KH WRWDO ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH DQG WKH VSHFLILHG FRQVWUXFWLRQWLPHZHUHDVVXPHGE\WKHDXWKRUV VHH7DEOH 1R
,WHP
$
9DOXH %
&RQFUHWHYROXPH 7RWDOODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH &RQVWUXFWLRQWLPH±UHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHRSHUDWLRQV
Pñ ZKPñ G
7DEOH 'HWHUPLQLVWLFLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV
7KLVDQDO\VLVGHDOVZLWKWKHHIIHFWVWKDWDYDU\LQJVWDUWRIFRQVWUXFWLRQLQGLIIHUHQWPRQWKV RIWKH\HDUZRXOGKDYHRQWKHWRWDOODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\RQWKHWRWDO QXPEHU RI SDLG ZRUNLQJ KRXUV DQG WKH FKDQFHULVN UDWLR )RU WKLV SXUSRVH ZH EDVH RXU FDOFXODWLRQ RQ KLVWRULFDO WHPSHUDWXUH GDWD 7KLV GDWD IRU WKH FLW\ RI /LQ] GDWDEDVH ZHUHSURYLGHGE\WKH$XVWULDQZentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik =$0* &HQWUDO$JHQF\IRU0HWHRURORJ\DQG*HRG\QDPLFV DQGDUHSXEOLFO\DFFHVVLEOH RQOLQH )LJ VKRZV WKH PHDQ GD\WLPH WHPSHUDWXUH FXUYH RQ D PRQWKO\ EDVLV PHDQVRIGDLO\PLQLPDDQGPD[LPDDQGWKHDEVROXWHPLQLPDDQGPD[LPD
7HPSHUDWXUH>&@
$EVROXWHPD[LPXP 0HDQRIDOOGD\WLPHPD[LPXPYDOXHV 'D\WLPHPHDQ 0HDQRIDOOGD\WLPHPLQLPXPYDOXHV $EVROXWHPLQLPXP
-DQ
)HE
0DU
$SU
0D\
-XQ
-XO
$XJ
6HS
2FW
0RQWKV
)LJ 7HPSHUDWXUHFXUYHIRUWKH/LQ]6WDGWPHDVXULQJVWDWLRQ
&I.XPPHU+RIVWDGOHU SII
KWWS ZZZ]DPJDFDWIL[NOLPDRHNOLPDNOLPDGDWHQBRHVWHUUHLFKB BIUDPHKWP $FFHVVHG'HFHPEHU
1RY
'HF
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
0RGHOLQJ
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
'DLO\WHPSHUDWXUH0HVWLPDRU 'D\WLPH WHPSHUDWXUH ± 0HVWLPDWRU
&
,QFUHDVH LQODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH>@ ,QFUHDVHLQODERXUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH>@
-DQXDU\
-XO\
'DLO\WHPSHUDWXUH>&@ 'D\WLPH WHPSHUDWXUH >&@
)LJ /DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHLQFUHDVHVGHSHQGLQJRQGLIIHUHQWGD\WLPHWHPSHUDWXUHV
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
,WZRXOGEHSRVVLEOHWRGHYHORSDUHILQHGPRGHOLQFRUSRUDWLQJSXEOLFKROLGD\VVHDVRQDOFORVXUHSHULRGVHWFEXWWKLV ZRXOGUHTXLUHDPXFKJUHDWHUPRGHOLQJHIIRUW
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
KLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV DUH H[SHFWHG WKH HIIHFW RQ WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH ZLOO REYLRXVO\ EH KLJKHU WKDQ LQ PRQWKV LQ ZKLFK WKH H[SHFWHG WHPSHUDWXUHV FRPH FORVH WR WKH RSWLPDO UDQJH ,I ZH YDU\ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VWDUW GDWH LQ HDFK RI WKH WZHOYH VLPXODWLRQV VHYHUDO SHULRGV ZLWK XQIDYRUDEOH WHPSHUDWXUH OHYHOV PD\ RFFXU GXULQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQ ZRUN GHSHQGLQJRQWKHVSHFLILHGFRQVWUXFWLRQWLPH7KLVOHDGVWRDJUHDWHUODERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHLQFUHDVHLQRYHUDOOWHUPV ZK@
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
TXDQWLOH 0HDQVWGGHY 7RWDOSDLGZRUNLQJKRXUV 0HDQVWGGHY TXDQWLOH
-DQ
)HE
0DU
$SU
0D\
-XQ
-XO
$XJ
6HS
2FW
1RY
'HF
6WDUWRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWHZRUNV>PRQWK@ 9DOXHV[A
)LJ 7RWDOQXPEHURISDLGZRUNLQJKRXUVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQVWDUWGDWH
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
-DQXDU\
$SULO
&KDQFH 5LVN
2FWREHU
&KDQFH 5LVN
9DOXHV[A
-XO\
9DOXHV[A
&KDQFH 5LVN 9DOXHV[A
9DOXHV[A
&KDQFH 5LVN
)LJ &KDQFHULVNUDWLRVIRUWKHWRWDOQXPEHURISDLGZRUNLQJKRXUVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQ VWDUWGDWH
%HQHILWIRUWKH&RQWUDFWRU
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
'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI$GGLWLRQDO&RVWV
)RU WKH ELGGHU DQG VXEVHTXHQW FRQWUDFWRU WKH ELOO RI TXDQWLWLHV IRUPLQJ SDUW RI WKH VWUXFWXUDOEXLOGLQJVSHFLILFDWLRQLVWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWEDVLVXSRQZKLFKWRSURFHHGZLWK FRVWLQJDQGSULFLQJDVZHOODVSURFHVVSODQQLQJDQGZRUNVFKHGXOLQJ,QWKLVGRFXPHQWWKH
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
FOLHQWPXVWGHVFULEHDOOFLUFXPVWDQFHVDQGFRQGLWLRQVIRUZRUNVWREHSHUIRUPHGVRDVWR HQDEOHWKHELGGHUWRSUHSDUHWKHLUSURSRVDOLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHREMHFWLYHH[SODQDWRU\ FRQWHQWRIWKHELGGRFXPHQWV7KLVPHDQVWKDWLWLVLQWKHFOLHQW¶VVSKHUHRIUHVSRQVLELOLW\ WRVSHFLI\WKHZRUNVWREHSHUIRUPHGLQVXIILFLHQWGHWDLO7KH$XVWULDQ2(1250% DQG%VWDQGDUGVGHILQHWKHFRQFHSWRIVSKHUHDVD³FRQWUDFWXDOO\RUOHJDOO\GHILQHG ULVNDUHDRIWKHUHOHYDQWSDUW\WRWKHFRQWUDFW´,IIRULQVWDQFHWKHFOLHQWPHUJHVVHYHUDO W\SHV RI ZRUN RU VHUYLFH IRU GLIIHUHQW VWUXFWXUDO FRPSRQHQWV WUDGHV VRLO W\SHV UHEDU GLDPHWHUVHWFLQWRDVLQJOHLWHPDQGLIWKHFRVWLQJDVVXPSWLRQVIRUVXFKFRPELQHGLWHPV DUHQRWGLVFORVHGWKHELGGHUZLOOEHIRUFHGWRPDNHWKHLURZQIUHHFRVWLQJDVVXPSWLRQVLQ RUGHUWREHDEOHWRSHUIRUPWKHLUFRVWLQJH[HUFLVHDWDOO $Q\FKDQJHLQWKHSURSRUWLRQVRIWKHZRUNVLQFOXGHGLQWKHPHUJHGLWHPFRPSDUHGWRWKH ELGGHU¶VRULJLQDOSULFLQJDVVXPSWLRQVZLOOOHDGWRDFKDQJHGSULFLQJVWUXFWXUHDVVRFLDWHG ZLWKSRWHQWLDOO\KLJKHURUORZHUFRVWVFRPSDUHGWRWKHELGSULFH 7KHH[DPSOHJLYHQIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHDGGLWLRQDOFRVWVFDQEHDVVLJQHGWR33+ VHH)LJ DQGLVEDVHGRQWKHH[DPSOHGLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWLRQ
5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
,GHDO SURFHVV
& 3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
%
' 'HVLJQ
33+
33+
33+
33+ $
( $SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
) 'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
*
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
33+ +
3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
, +DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
2SHUDWLRQ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV &OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
%LGGHU
&7
'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI DGGLWLRQDOFRVWV
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV
$ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
)LJ $OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
7DVN
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
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
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g%9,Q WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ SKDVH KRZHYHU WKH GLDPHWHU DQG EHQG VKDSH GLVWULEXWLRQV FKDQJHG FRPSDUHG WR WKH FRQWUDFWRU¶V RULJLQDO DVVXPSWLRQV 7KLV FKDQJH RULJLQDWHV IURP WKH FOLHQW¶VVSKHUHEHFDXVHWKHVWUXFWXUDOFRQFHSWDQGUHLQIRUFHPHQWSODQVZHUHSUHSDUHGE\ UHSUHVHQWDWLYHVRIWKHFOLHQWDQGUHVXOWVLQDVXEVHTXHQWFKDQJHLQWKHFRQWUDFWRU¶VSULFLQJ VWUXFWXUH7KH FKDQJH LQ WKH TXDQWLW\ SURSRUWLRQV DOVR OHDGV WR D FKDQJH LQ WKH FLUFXP VWDQFHV RI ZRUN SHUIRUPDQFH DQG WKXV WR DGGLWLRQDO FRVWV WKDW WKH FRQWUDFWRU ZLOO EH FODLPLQJIURPWKHFOLHQW
0RGHOLQJ
7KHFRQWUDFWRU¶VELGVWDWHVDZDJHSURSRUWLRQRI¼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g%9 ,QWKHFRXUVHRIWKHLUSULFLQJH[HUFLVHWKHELGGHUWKXVGHFLGHGWRWDNHDKLJKHUULVNIRUWKH UHLQIRUFLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DQG PRYHG WKHLU ZDJH SURSRUWLRQ >¼W@ RQH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ DZD\ IURP WKH PHDQ FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR ¼W VHH )LJ 7KH FRQWUDFWRU WKXV WRRNDFKDQFHULVNUDWLRRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\WR
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
:DJHSURSRUWLRQ>¼W@
:DJHSURSRUWLRQ>¼W@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ +LVWRJUDPRIWKHZDJHSURSRUWLRQ±6HOHFWLRQRIWKHFKDQFHULVNUDWLRIRUWKHELG
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±$FWXDO 4XDQWLW\ 'LDPHWHU SURSRUWLRQV 1R >PP@
$
7RWDO
7DEOH 5HEDUGLDPHWHUGLVWULEXWLRQ±$FWXDO
>@ %
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
%HQGVKDSHGLVWULEXWLRQ±$FWXDO 4XDQWLW\ %HQGVKDSH SURSRUWLRQV 1R >@
$
VWUDLJKW VLPSOH FRPSOH[ 7RWDO
>@ %
7DEOH %HQGVKDSHGLVWULEXWLRQ±$FWXDO
,QWKHDFWXDOFDOFXODWLRQWKHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHVDUHDOVRVXEMHFWWRXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQG DUHWKXVDSSOLHGDVORJORJLVWLFOLNHGLVWULEXWLRQVSHUGLDPHWHUDQGEHQGVKDSHDVGHVFULEHG LQ6HFWLRQ )LJVKRZVWKHIORZFKDUWIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHQHZEOHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH DQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGQHZSULFHEDVH7KHTXDQWLW\DQGEHQGVKDSHSURSRUWLRQVDUHLQWHJUDWHG LQWRWKHPRGHODVGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXHVDVLVWKHPHDQZDJHSULFH7KHODERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHVSHUUHEDUGLDPHWHUDQGEHQGVKDSHDUHPRGHOHGDVORJORJLVWLFOLNHGLVWULEXWLRQV DV LQ6HFWLRQ 2WKHUZLVHWKHFDOFXODWLRQSURFHGXUHUHPDLQVXQFKDQJHGFRPSDUHGWR WKHVHTXHQFHVKRZQLQ)LJ VHHSDJH
8QFHUWDLQLQSXW SDUDPHWHUV
4XDQWLW\SURSRUWLRQV
4XDQWLW\SURSRUWLRQ 'LDPHWHU PP
%HQGVKDSHSURSRUWLRQV
%HQGVKDSHSURSRUWLRQ VWUDLJKW %HQGVKDSHSURSRUWLRQ VLPSOH %HQGVKDSHSURSRUWLRQ FRPSOH[
/DERUFRQVUDWHSURSRUWLRQ
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHSHU GLDPHWHUDQGEHQGVKDSH
/DERUFRQVUDWHSURSRUWLRQ
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHSHU GLDPHWHUDQGEHQGVKDSH
/DERUFRQVUDWHSURSRUWLRQ
«
'LDPHWHU PP
%HQGVKDSHSURSRUWLRQ FRPSOH[
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHSHU GLDPHWHUDQGEHQGVKDSH
«
4XDQWLW\SURSRUWLRQ
%HQGVKDSHSURSRUWLRQ VLPSOH
«
«
&DOFXODWLRQRIEOHQGHG ODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH
%HQGVKDSHSURSRUWLRQ VWUDLJKW
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHSHU GLDPHWHUDQGEHQGVKDSH
/DERUFRQVUDWHSURSRUWLRQ
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHSHU GLDPHWHUDQGEHQGVKDSH
/DERUFRQVUDWHSURSRUWLRQ
/DERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHSHU GLDPHWHUDQGEHQGVKDSH
/DERUFRQVUDWHSURSRUWLRQ 7RWDO
%OHQGHGODERU FRQVXPSWLRQUDWH
&DOFXODWLRQRIZDJH SURSRUWLRQ
0HDQZDJHSULFH
)LJ &DOFXODWLRQIORZFKDUW
%OHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH
:DJHSURSRUWLRQ
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
&DOFXODWLRQDQG,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI5HVXOWV
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
'LDPHWHU VWUDLJKW
VLPSOHEHQG
FRPSOH[EHQG
3URSRUWLRQDO FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH
0HDQZDJH SULFH
:DJH SURSRUWLRQ
>PP@
>ZKW@
>ZKW@
>ZKW@
>ZKW@
>¼ZK@
>¼W@
$
%
&
'
(
)
*
7RWDO
7DEOH &DOFXODWLRQRIWKHDFWXDOEOHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH
7KH DFWXDO ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH LV KLJKHU WKDQ WKH EOHQGHG ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH LQFOXGHGLQWKHELGRZLQJWRWKHFKDQJHGTXDQWLW\SURSRUWLRQVRIWKHGLDPHWHUVDQGEHQG VKDSHV&RPSDULQJWKHWZRKLVWRJUDPVUHYHDOVWKHGLIIHUHQWUDQJHVLQJHQHUDOEXWDOVRWKH GLIIHUHQWYDOXHUDQJHV VHH)LJ 7KHIDFWWKDWWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHGLDPHWHUDQGEHQGVKDSHGLVWULEXWLRQV KDYHEHHQHOLPLQDWHGLQWKHDFWXDOFRQGLWLRQVRWKDWGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXHVFDQEHDSSOLHG UHVXOWVLQDQDUURZHUUDQJHRIUHVXOWVIRUWKHDFWXDOEOHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH7KH KLVWRJUDPUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHDFWXDOVLWXDWLRQDOVROLHVLQDGLIIHUHQWYDOXHUDQJHRZLQJWRWKH FKDQJHG TXDQWLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQV 7KH EOHQGHG ODERU FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH KDV LQFUHDVHG LQ RYHUDOOWHUPVEHFDXVHDODUJHUTXDQWLW\RIVPDOOHUUHEDUGLDPHWHUVDQGDKLJKHUSURSRUWLRQ RIEHQWUHEDUZHUHLQVWDOOHG
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
%OHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH>ZKW@
%OHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH>ZKW@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
%OHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH±$FWXDO>ZKW@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ &RPSDULVRQ±+LVWRJUDPVRIEOHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHV
7RFDOFXODWHWKHDFWXDOZDJHSURSRUWLRQZHPXOWLSO\WKHEOHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWH E\WKHDYHUDJHZDJHSULFHWDNHQIURPWKHRULJLQDOFDOFXODWLRQ LH¼ZK 7KHWZRKLVWR JUDPVFDQDOVREHFRPSDUHGZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHZDJHSURSRUWLRQ VHH)LJ 7KH UHVXOWLVVLPLODUWRWKDWREWDLQHGIRUWKHEOHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHV7KLVLVGXHWRWKH IDFWWKDWHDFKRIWKHWZRKLVWRJUDPVUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHEOHQGHGODERUFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHVZDV RQO\PXOWLSOLHGE\DGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDOXH ¼ZK 1RIXUWKHUXQFHUWDLQWLHVDUHLQFOXGHGLQ WKHVLPXODWLRQ :DJHSURSRUWLRQ>¼W@
:DJHSURSRUWLRQ>¼W@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
:DJH SURSRUWLRQ±$FWXDO >¼W@
0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 0HDQ 6WG'HY 9DOXHV
)LJ &RPSDULVRQ±+LVWRJUDPVUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHZDJHSURSRUWLRQ
,Q )LJ WKH VOLGHUV DW WKH WRS RI WKH GLDJUDP DUH HDFK VHW VXFK WKDW WKH VDPH FKDQFHULVN UDWLR LV REWDLQHG IRU ERWK KLVWRJUDPV 7KH FRQWUDFWRU KDV WDNHQ D UHODWLYHO\ KLJKULVNRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\ZLWKWKHLUELG,QWKHLQWHUHVWRIFRPPHUFLDOYLDELOLW\WKLV FKDQFHULVNUDWLRVKRXOGDOVREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWZKHQGHWHUPLQLQJDGGLWLRQDOFRVWV
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
$FFRUGLQJO\ ZH ZRXOG FRQVLGHU DQ DFWXDO ZDJH SURSRUWLRQ RI ¼W WR EH YLDEOH &RPSDUHGWRWKHELGWKLVLVHTXLYDOHQWWRDQLQFUHDVHRI¼W ¼W¼W 5HODWLYH WR WKH VSHFLILHG UHLQIRUFHPHQW TXDQWLW\ RI W WKLV ZRXOG FRUUHVSRQG WR DGGLWLRQDOFRVWVRI¼ ¼W W 7KLVFDOFXODWLRQGLGQRWWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHFKDQJHGGLDPHWHUDQGEHQG VKDSH GLVWULEXWLRQ RQ WKH HTXLSPHQW DQG PDWHULDO FRVWV DQG RQ WKH FRVWV RI FXWWLQJ DQG EHQGLQJ1RUGLGZHFRQVLGHUDQ\RWKHUORVVHVRISURGXFWLYLW\WKDWPD\KDYHRFFXUUHGDVD UHVXOWRIWKHFKDQJHGUHLQIRUFHPHQWOD\RXW
%HQHILWIRUWKH&RQWUDFWRU
:KHQGHWHUPLQLQJDGGLWLRQDOFRVWVWKHFRQWUDFWRUZLOODOZD\VEHIDFHGZLWKWKHFKDOOHQJH RISUHVHQWLQJDQGSURFHVVLQJWKHFKDQJHGFLUFXPVWDQFHVRIRUGLVUXSWLRQVWRZRUNSHUIRU PDQFH IURP WKH FOLHQW¶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
3URMHFW3KDVH 33+
1R H[DPSOHV DUH FXUUHQWO\ LQFOXGHG LQ WKLV ERRN WKDW ZRXOG EH JURXSHG XQGHU 3URMHFW 3KDVH +RZHYHU 0RQWH &DUOR VLPXODWLRQV DSSHDU WR EH VXLWDEOH IRU RSHUDWLRQDO DQG VWUDWHJLF IDFLOLW\ PDQDJHPHQW DSSOLFDWLRQV ,Q UHDO HVWDWH UHQWDO DQG RSHUDWLRQV IRU LQVWDQFHORVWUHQWDOLQFRPHDQGLWVUHSHUFXVVLRQVRQWKHSURILWDELOLW\RIWKHSURSHUW\FDQEH DVVHVVHGWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHDVVRFLDWHGXQFHUWDLQWLHV
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
3URMHFW3RUWIROLR0DQDJHPHQWDFURVVDOO3KDVHV
5DWKHUWKDQDVVLJQLQJSRUWIROLRPDQDJHPHQWGLUHFWO\WRDVSHFLILFSURMHFWSKDVHZHVKRXOG FRQVLGHULWWREHDPDQDJHPHQWWRROWREHDSSOLHGDFURVVDOOSKDVHV VHH)LJ 7KLV PHWKRGMRLQWO\FRQVLGHUVVHYHUDOGLIIHUHQWSURMHFWVLQDFROOHFWLRQ SURMHFWSRUWIROLR 2XU DLP LV WR REWDLQ DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH FKDQFHULVN UDWLR IRU WKH HQWLUH SRUWIROLR DQG FRQYHUVHO\WRLGHQWLI\DQGHYDOXDWHWKHLQIOXHQFHRIVSHFLILFSURMHFWVRQWKHSRUWIROLR
,GHDO SURFHVV
33+ %
$ 5HVRXUFH SODQQLQJ
3URMHFW GHYHORSPHQW
5HDOOLIH SURFHVV
5HVRXUFH UHTXHVW
33+ &
33+
' 'HVLJQ
)
( $SSURYDO SODQQLQJ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ
33+
33+ *
&RQWUDFWDZDUG
,
+ 3URMHFWH[HFXWLRQ
+DQGRYHU DFFHSWDQFH
2SHUDWLRQ
'HWDLOHGGHVLJQ ELOORITXDQWLWLHV &OLHQWGULYHQFRQWUDFWDZDUG
%LGGHU
&7 3RUWIROLRPDQDJHPHQW DFURVVDOOSKDVHV
33+3URMHFWSUHSDUDWLRQ_33+ 'HVLJQ_33+ 3UHSDUDWLRQRIH[HFXWLRQ_33+ ([HFXWLRQ_33+ 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQ
.H\GHFLVLRQVIRUDOOSURMHFWV
$ 5HTXHVWUHOHDVH_% 5HVRXUFHSODQQLQJUHOHDVH_&'HVLJQGHFLVLRQ_' ([HFXWLRQGHFLVLRQ_( 6WDUWRIGHWDLOHGGHVLJQ_ ) 5HOHDVHRI%R4 _*$ZDUG_+$FFHSWDQFHKDQGRYHU_,'RFXPHQWDWLRQRIXVHUHDOOLIHRSHUDWLRQ_- 3URMHFWHYDOXDWLRQSURMHFWHQG
'HFLVLRQVIRUPDMRUSURMHFWV
6RXUFH +RIVWDGOHU.XPPHU &KDQFHQ XQG5LVLNRPDQDJHPHQWLQGHU%DXZLUWVFKDIW6SULQJHU9HUODJ
33+«3URMHFWSKDVH&/«&OLHQW&7«&RQWUDFWRU
)LJ $OORFDWLRQRIH[DPSOHLQWKHSURMHFWVHTXHQFH
%DVLFV
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
3URMHFW3RUWIROLR0DQDJHPHQWDFURVVDOO3KDVHV
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
7DVN
*URXS
)LJVKRZVDVFKHPDWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRIDFRPSDQ\ RUDJURXSRI >FRQVWUXFWLRQ@ FRPSDQLHV 7KLV FRPSDQ\ LV VXEGLYLGHG LQWR YDULRXV XQLWV WKDW HDFK PDQDJHSURMHFWVRIYDULRXVVL]HV SURMHFWYROXPHV DQGDWYDULRXVVWDJHVRISURJUHVV,Q WKHILUVWVWHSWKHFKDQFHULVNUDWLRRIWKHH[LVWLQJSURMHFWSRUWIROLRFDQEHGHWHUPLQHGLID SUREDELOLVWLF FRVW HVWLPDWH ZDV SUHYLRXVO\ SHUIRUPHG IRU HDFK RI WKH SURMHFWV RU LI WKH FKDQFHULVNUDWLRFDQDWOHDVWEHVWDWHGWKDWZDVDVVXPHGIRUWKHLQGLYLGXDOSURMHFWVRQWKH EDVLVRIWKHELGSULFH
&RPSDQ\
&RPSDQ\
&RPSDQ\
8QLWV
*URXS FRPSDQLHV
*URXS
+5
%XLOGLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQ
&LYLOHQJLQHHULQJ
)LQDQFLQJ
HWF
[
)DoDGH +9$&
)LQDOVWDJH EXLOGLQJVKHOO
,QLWLDOVWDJH EXLOGLQJVKHOO
6WDUWRIVLWHPDQDJHPHQW VXSHUYLVLRQ
(DUWKZRUNV
1HZSURMHFW
&KDQFH ULVNUDWLR
3URMHFW YROXPH
3URMHFWVDW YDU\LQJVWDJHV RISURJUHVV
$FFRXQWLQJ
"
+XPDQUHVRXUFHV
+HDWLQJYHQWLODWLRQDLUFRQGLWLRQLQJ
3URMHFWSRUWIROLR 6HOHFWLRQRIFKDQFHULVNUDWLR
)LJ 6HOHFWLQJWKHFKDQFHULVNUDWLRIRUQHZSURMHFWV
$OVRUHIHUUHGWRDVVWUDWHJLFPXOWLSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQW
'HFLVLRQFULWHULRQIRUFKDQFHULVNUDWLR RIQHZSURMHFW
:RUNHG([DPSOHV±&RQWUDFWRU
,WLVWKHQSRVVLEOHWRLQFRUSRUDWHWKHSUREDELOLVWLFFRVWHVWLPDWHLQWKHSRUWIROLRIRUHDFK QHZ SURMHFW DQG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH WRWDO EUHDNHYHQ ELG SULFH IURP ZLWKLQ WKH JLYHQ UDQJHE\SHUIRUPLQJDUHYHUVHFDOFXODWLRQRUVHOHFWLQJDFKDQFHULVNUDWLR $WWKLVVWDJHSURMHFWSRUWIROLRPDQDJHPHQWFRQVLGHUVSURMHFWVPDQDJHGE\LGHQWLFDOXQLWV EXW LWFDQDOVREH H[WHQGHGLQWKH YHUWLFDOGLUHFWLRQIRU LQVWDQFHE\IRUPLQJDSRUWIROLR FRPSULVHGRIVHYHUDOXQLWVRUFRPSDQLHV &RVW FDOFXODWLRQV IRU SURMHFWV LQ WKH H[HFXWLRQ SKDVH PXVW EH FRQWLQXRXVO\ XSGDWHG WR DOORZIRUSURMHFWUHODWHGFRQFOXVLRQVUHJDUGLQJWKHFXUUHQWFKDQFHULVNUDWLR
0RGHOLQJ
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
WRDKLJKHUULVN 6XFKDVIURPSUREDELOLVWLFWUHQGDQDO\VHVRQWKHEDVLVRIFXUUHQWSURMHFWSURJUHVVGDWDDQGWKHGHULYHGIRUHFDVW
3URMHFW3RUWIROLR0DQDJHPHQWDFURVVDOO3KDVHV
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
3UREDELOLVWLFFRVW HVWLPDWHSHUIRUPHG"