Water in the Middle East: A Geography of Peace [1 ed.] 0292704941

Citation preview

“A GEOGRAPHY

DAMASCUS

OF PEACE Mediterranean ,

,

-

‘

) bake | -sKinneret As a aig: oh dl

‘ ‘i

a ee ee ee Yarmuk River ¢

Sie seamen

x |/ Zarga River

4

Si

Au ssein A. /\mery

and / aron |. Wolf |

“

=

ay i

95h 9100956 |W

JAG

WATER

IN THE

MIDDLE

EAST

—.

A GEOGRAPHY OF

‘Water in the Middle East

PeAGE

Edited by Hussein A. Amery

and Aaron T. Wolf

“+

The University of Texas Press Austin

Copyright © 2000 by Hussein A. Amery and Aaron T. Wolf All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America First edition, 2000 y

Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to Permissions, University of Texas Press, P.O. Box 7819, Austin, TX 78713-7819. The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1984. LIBRARY

OF CONGRESS

CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION

DATA

Water in the Middle East : a geography of peace / edited by Hussein A. Amery and Aaron T. Wolf. ah Sake Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-292-70494-1 (cloth: alk. paper). — ISBN 0-292-70495x (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Water resources development—Political aspects —Middle East. 2. Water-supply—Political aspects—Middle East. 3. Water rights—Middle East. 4. Jewish-Arab relations. I. Amery, Hussein A., 1958HD1698.M53W383

333.91'00956—dc21

.

II. Wolf, Aaron T.

2000

99-30146

Number One Peter T. Flawn Series in Natural Resource Management and Conservation

The Peter T. Flawn Series in Natural Resource Management and Conservation is supported by a grant from the National Endowment for the

Humanities and by gifts from the following donors: Jenkins Garrett Edward H. Harte Houston H. Harte Jess T. Hay Mrs. Lyndon B. Johnson Bryce and Jonelle Jordan Ben F. and Margaret Love Wales H. and Abbie-Madden

Sue Brandt McBee Charles Miller Beth R. Morian James L. and Nancy H. Powell Tom B. Rhodes Louise Saxon Edwin R. and Molly Sharpe Larry E. and Louann Temple

CONTENTS

Foreword

xiii

TONY ALLAN, University of London Acknowledgments Tr.

xvii

Water, Geography, and Peace in the Middle East: An Introduction HUSSEIN A. AMERY AND AARON T. WOLF I

. Conflict, Coexistence, and Cooperation: A Study of Water Use in the Jordan Basin PETER BEAUMONT, University of Wales 19 . Forces of Change and the Conflict over Water in the Jordan River Basin

STEVE LONERGAN, University of Victoria

45

. “Hydrostrategic” Territory in the Jordan Basin: Water, War, and Arab-Israeli Peace Negotiations AARON T. WOLF, Oregon State University

63

. A Popular Theory of Water Diversion from Lebanon: Toward Public Participation for Peace HUSSEIN A. AMERY, Colorado School of Mines 121 . The Water Dimension of Golan Heights Negotiations FREDERIC C. HOF, Armitage Associates, L.C. 150 . Water Security for the Jordan River States: Performance Criteria and Uncertainty

PAUL A. KAY AND BRUCE MITCHELL, University of Waterloo 168

»

VIII

WATER

IN

THE

MIDDLE

EAST

8. A Cooperative Framework for Sharing Scarce Water Resources: Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority NURIT N. KLIOT, University of Haifa 191 9. Political Controls of River Waters and Abstractions between Various States within the Middle East: Laws and Operations, with Special Reference to the Jordan Basin GWYN ROWLEY, University of Sheffield 218

10. The Spatial Attributes of Water Negotiation: The Need for a River Ethic and River Advocacy in the Middle East JOHN KOLARS, University of Michigan (emeritus) 245 Appendix 1.

Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty, 26 October 1994, Article 6: Water 263

Appendix 2.

The Israel-PLO Interim Agreement, 28 September 1995, Annex III, Article 40: Water and Sewage 268

Glossary

273

Author Biographies Index

283

279

LIST

OF

FIGURES

AND

TABLES

FIGURES FIGURE

2.1.

The Basin of the River Jordan.

20

FIGURE

2.2,

The National Water Carrier of Israel.

30

FIGURE 2.3.

Changing Patterns of Water Use in Israel.

FIGURE 2.4.

The Mountain Aquifer of the Palestinian West Bank. 35

FIGURE 3.1.

Population Growth: Selected Middle East Countries, B95C— 199 36

FIGURE 3.2.

31

47

Water Consumption/ Water Availability for Selected Countries, 1995-2025.

51

FIGURE 3.3.

Population Experiencing Freshwater Scarcity, 1990-2050. 52

FIGURE 3.4.

World Total Population and Percentage Urban, 1950-2025. 55

FIGURE 4.1.

Jordan River Watershed.

FIGURE 4.2.

Boundaries Proposed for Palestine,

FIGURE 4.3.

United Nations Plan for the Partition of Palestine, November 1947. 73

FIGURE 4.4.

Mekorot’s Desirable Frontier Adjustments.

65 1916-1919.

77

69

‘

X

WATER

IN

THE

MIDDLE

EAST

FIGURE 4.5.

Rhodes Armistice Demarcation Line, 1948.

FIGURE 4.6.

Israel-Syria Demilitarized Zones.

FIGURE 4.7.

International Borders,

1948-1967.

FIGURE 4.8.

International Borders,

1967 to Present.

FIGURE 4.9.

The Allon Plan.

FIGURE 4.10.

West Bank Groundwater.

98

FIGURE 4.11.

Hydrostrategic Territory.

99

FIGURE 4.12.

Cohen’s Defensible Borders.

101

FIGURE 4.13.

Alpher’s Water Boundaries.

103

FIGURE 4.14.

Alpher’s Final Boundaries.

FIGURE 5.1.

The Litani River and the Israeli-occupied “Security Zone.”

81

82 86 91

97

104

123

FIGURE 5. iS

Map Showing the Location of the Diversion Tunnel from the Litani. 132

FIGURE 7.1.

Total Annual Water Consumption in Israel.

FIGURE 7.2.

Definition of “Failure.”

FIGURE 7.3.

Annual High-water Levels in a Representative Well in the Yarqon-Taninim Aquifer, Israel. 175

FIGURE 7.4.

Interannual Changes in Crop Productivity Index for Israeli Agriculture. 177

FIGURE

Shared Aquifers of Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. 194

8.1.

FIGURE 9.1.

171

174

Schematic Diagram of the Jordan and Lower Litani Catchment Areas. 221

“LIST

OF

FIGURES

AND

FIGURE 9.2.

General Map of the Jordan Basin and Surrounding Areas. 222

FIGURE 9.3.

The Upper Jordan Valley.

FIGURE 9.4.

A Future Palestinian Territory?

TABLES

XI

225 238

TABLES TABLE

(foi.

Some Common Arabic and Hebrew

Geographical Terms

12

PAB Le

i255

Estimated Water Demand in Israel, A.D. 2000

TABLE

8.1.

Sources and Uses of the Jordan-Yarmuk and Shared Aquifers 193

TABLE

8.2.

Water Allocation to Jordan and Israel According to Seasons and Sources According to the Treaty of Peace 200

TABLE

9.1.

Original Proposal, Arab Proposal, and Final Guidelines for Use of Jordan Basin Waters Set in 1953-1955 223

TABLE

£O.L-

Average Yearly Flow of the Euphrates River,

1937-1963 TABLE

10.2.

249

Hypothetical Return Flow Management on the Euphrates River 256

33

t

.

‘

a

-*

ey

EP

a x

_-

=

rie

o

Fh

a

ft Pe

j

a

Sez }

ra

o

:

.

ce

:

=

NMIEN

*

Pa

rare)

2

ie

t

4

a

‘ht

‘

ig

=

a Ss a a si reBe

aches Hrd

7

Fee

ee:

ot

sina

Suen

We:

,

iia

ale

s

agi

(9

.

a

>

ie

:

a

‘+ +

ne ey

,

=

=

26

when

i >,

Eh ead: ’ 4

Piet

s

6

a

if

7

Pee

et

‘ oA

=

Nas

ASS #096

gga! "

+

WD

sated

PRAM)

by

|

io

Ray :

>.

-

yh . ?

bs

ect ena

SHA a7

oats elDug pear

4s: 934

meet # Vs leae'* wae

ae Meda ee _, One rn Pee.

elt ;beet |

-

URSA i

whe.

ad

bite gee ew

hae ,

7

sree a oa e ab

ne

Poed of.) Se

——07

(Gps. “>.

Seach € a Shikelon vA

JUDEAN

‘ MOUNTAINS .

2

|

;

,

|

|

|

Pre-1967

Cease Fire

Lines Hydrological Divide —

Direction of

Ground Water Flow * The numbers represent the average annual sustainable yield for each aquifer in

erce’sheba s

20 miles

—--—

S

\Lmillion cubic meters.

20 km

FIGURE 4.10.

West Bank Groundwater (Redrawn from Shuval 1992).

Post-1977 Boundary Studies In 1977, the right-wing Likud Party gained control of the Israeli parliament for the first time. As Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin was

preparing for negotiations with Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, he asked then—Water Commissioner Menachem Cantor to provide him with a map of Israeli water usage from water originating on the West Bank, and to provide guidelines to where Israel might relinquish control, if protecting Israel’s water resources were the only consideration. As described above, Cantor concluded that a “red line” could be drawn, beyond which Israel should not relinquish control, north to

HYDROSTRATEGIC

TERRITORY

IN

THE

JORDAN

BASIN

99

* Amman enter

ene

JORDAN

INTERNATIONAL BORDERS 1967-PRESENT with Water Diversions Occupied by Israel

—v--—

Borders

Esl Israeli Security Zone

Water Carriers

ia] Hydrostrategic Territory

Watershed

FIGURE 4.11. Hydrostrategic Territory (Redrawn from Wolf 199§a).

south following roughly the ro0-200 m contour line along both “lobes” of the West Bank (see Figure 4.11). Israeli water planners still refer to this “red line” as a frame of reference (Wolf 199 5a), and it has occasionally been included in academic boundary studies of the region. This concept was later expanded by others to areas of the northern headwaters

and the Golan Heights (see Figure 4.11). Brief descriptions of those studies which mention water as a territorial imperative follow.

IO0O0

AARON

T.

WOLF

Cohen’s “Defensible Borders”

Saul Cohen (1986) explored “the geopolitics of Israel’s border question,” addressing possible boundary negotiations with a Palestinian political entity, and with Syria over the Golan Heights. His recommendations for boundary adjustments were considered from the perspective of defensible borders for Israel within the framework of territorial compromise, and included factors of a “strategic-tactical” and a ““demographiceconomic” nature. They included, explicitly, defensive depth, surveillance points, marshaling areas and corridors, water control, space for Israeli population and industrial growth, absence of dense Arab populations, and psycho-tactical space (1986, 4). In illustrating the influence of the above principles, Cohen described how water might influence territorial compromise (1986, 55): Israel would need to retain sovereignty over the Banias-Har Dov—Hermon shoulder headwaters region, the Golan slopes east of the Upper Jordan, and the Golan Heights that overlook the Sea of Galilee and the Lower Yarmuk and its Raqqad tributary. On the West Bank, Cohen argued that Israel should annex the territory which extends until the “subterranean water divide,” which he identifies as extending from 2 to 6 km east of the Green Line."* Despite his ac!snowledgment that this territory includes Arab population centers, althcugh none of the larger towns, Cohen argued that the substantial geopolitical advantage that Israel would gain (presumably over and above the hydrostrategic considerations) would outweigh those concerns. Overall, for all the factors listed above, Cohen

advised Israel to annex approximately 20 percent of the West Bank, 19 percent of the Gaza Strip, and 50 percent of the Golan Heights (1986, 4; see also Figure 4.12).

The Jaffee Center’s “Arrangements”

In 1991, the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies of Tel Aviv University asked two researchers, Yehoshua Schwartz, the director of Tahal, Israel’s water planning agency, and Aharon Zohar, also at Tahal at the time, to undertake a study of the regional hydrostrategic situation and the potential for regional cooperation. The result, a three-hundred-page document titled Water in the Middle East: Solutions to Water Problems in the Context of Arrangements between Israel and the Arabs, was one of the most comprehensive studies of its kind (Schwartz and Zohar 1991). It

examined a number of possible scenarios for regional water development, including possible arrangement between Israel and Jordan, Syria,

HYDROSTRATEGIC

TERRITORY

IN

THE

JORDAN

BASIN

I0Of

LEGEND —--—-—

_ Intemational boundaries

—$———

Pre. 1967boundary

"=== _ Recomended new Israeli boundries Incoperated within Israel

LEBANON

fj slerusalem addition "|

8 ( Dcyat

“| ary

Israeli security zone : ‘ Demilitarized Syrian Golan Mutti-national corridor Jewish towns

ee

TS

Rue

=