Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation 3031128133, 9783031128134

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Green Energy and Technology

Francesca Abastante · Marta Bottero · Chiara D’Alpaos · Luisa Ingaramo · Alessandra Oppio · Paolo Rosato · Francesca Salvo   Editors

Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation

Green Energy and Technology

Climate change, environmental impact and the limited natural resources urge scientific research and novel technical solutions. The monograph series Green Energy and Technology serves as a publishing platform for scientific and technological approaches to “green”—i.e. environmentally friendly and sustainable—technologies. While a focus lies on energy and power supply, it also covers “green” solutions in industrial engineering and engineering design. Green Energy and Technology addresses researchers, advanced students, technical consultants as well as decision makers in industries and politics. Hence, the level of presentation spans from instructional to highly technical. **Indexed in Scopus**. **Indexed in Ei Compendex**.

Francesca Abastante · Marta Bottero · Chiara D’Alpaos · Luisa Ingaramo · Alessandra Oppio · Paolo Rosato · Francesca Salvo Editors

Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation

Editors Francesca Abastante DIST Politecnico di Torino Turin, Italy Chiara D’Alpaos University of Padova Padua, Italy Alessandra Oppio Chief Editor of the Springer SIEV Series Politecnico di Milano Milan, Italy

Marta Bottero DIST Politecnico di Torino Turin, Italy Luisa Ingaramo PR.I.S.MA – Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo Turin, Italy Paolo Rosato DIA University of Trieste Trieste, Italy

Francesca Salvo DIAM University of Calabria Arcavacata di Rende, Italy

ISSN 1865-3529 ISSN 1865-3537 (electronic) Green Energy and Technology ISBN 978-3-031-12813-4 ISBN 978-3-031-12814-1 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Preface: At the Origin of Circularity

The planning of a “sustainable” development path for urban areas is a challenge both difficult and promising at the same time. In fact, heavily anthropized areas present the highest environmental and social criticalities and, nevertheless, are an ever-coveted source of opportunities and well-being. Urban areas host most of the world’s population, and United Nations predicts that in a few decades, 80% of the population will reside in urban areas both for incoming migratory flows and for the expansion of urban areas themselves. This trend has been constant over time and has slowed down only during exceptional and contingent events, such as the Second World War. More recently, the spread of telecommunication networks (ICT) and the COVID19 pandemic seem to have slowed this trend, but it is not known whether it is a structural or contingent phenomenon. Urban areas, strong generators of explicit and implicit knowledge, offer better job and income prospects, better social services, better schools, better health care, and much more; likewise, they are also the places of conflict and degradation where the expectations of immigrants, if disregarded, generate frustration and marginalization. On the environmental level, cities are formidable sinks of raw materials and energy and, consequently, of pollution of all environmental matrices: soil, water, and atmosphere. Cities are made up of fragile and obsolescent physical infrastructures which, if not properly maintained, easily degrade, triggering similar phenomena on a social level. Urban systems are always in a dynamic equilibrium between development and degradation, according to the resources invested in them, both public and private, and even the objectives of the urban policies underlying these resources. In this regard, the declared goal of the public decision-maker in recent decades is the design of a “circular city” capable of reabsorbing—in the broadest sense— the “toxins” produced by urban metabolism. This means not only ensuring correct management of material waste and technological externalities but also generating “value systems” capable of mobilizing the resources necessary for the regeneration of the most compromised areas. v

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But what are the basic principles of the circularity of economic systems in general and urban ones in particular? Much has been written from many points of view, so much so that the concept risks are appearing elusive in its concrete application. To go back to the founding principles, it seems useful to recall scholars who at the end of the 1960s started a rethinking of the traditional economic approach based on the uncontrolled extraction of natural resources for production purposes: Kennet Boulding, John Krutilla, and Garret Hardin. Boulding [1] theorizes the distinction between open (linear) and closed (circular) economic systems and distinguishes the systems (open or closed) according to the reference: matter, energy, and information. He advocates, with the need for the reuse of waste material, the construction of circular economic systems in a closed environment such as the earth ecosystem. Krutilla [2] focuses his thought on the value of natural resources in a long-term perspective and points out that these resources have a “plus value” that transcends the mere use value and that is linked to the legacy for the future generations, the existence of all living beings, and to the future options of use (known and unknown) that may be exercised. He highlights that the value of a resource (including cultural) changes according to the information acquired with its use (learning by doing). Finally, he recognizes that technical progress can temper the effects of scarcity by improving resources use efficiency but points out that the effect of technical progress is asymmetrical with respect to the resources transformation function into public and private goods since it is the result of private investment. Technology tends to evolve towards forms that favour the production of private goods and services, often sacrificing public goods and services produced by environmental resources. Hardin [3] addresses the problem of the long-term sustainability of population growth which can also be extended to the concentration of the urban population. He stresses that many properties of natural resources, such as the ability to assimilate waste and most of the “amenities”, are “commons” for which the market is inefficient (unable) to achieve a socially optimal management. He also demonstrates that there is no optimal solution based on individual rationality but only a “moral” solution, anticipating Nobel Prize Elinor Ostrom’s work [4] on the role of institutions in the management of common resources. Finally, he poses the basic problem in the definition of the optimal social solution, of the “weighing” of private and public goods in the formation of well-being. The basic principles theorized by these three authors have been extensively reworked and developed; however, they still remain an important theoretical and cultural reference for the generation of environmental economists of the last fifty years. As mentioned earlier, the identification of concrete solutions for the construction of circular urban systems passes through the recognition of a coherent system of values and adequate evaluation tools.

Preface: At the Origin of Circularity

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This book collects contributions on evaluation models in decision-making processes for the construction of circular urban systems in the digital era, with particular attention to the improvement of social and individual well-being. The book is organized into three sections, reflecting the main topics. Part One, entitled “Models and Metrics for Social Impact Assessment”, presents some experiences in evaluating private and public assets in Italian cities, investigates the formation of value in urban regeneration projects, and tackles the problem of evaluating public and private advantages in urban planning choices. Part Two includes eight contributions under the subtitle “Decision Making for Circular Cities” and addresses the problem of the transition between linear and circular systems in various fields: mining, social housing, and in the construction of architecture. It also presents some insights on the topic of sustainability with reference to the social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Part Three faces the topic of “The Value of Spaces in the Digital Revolution” through five papers. The contributions focus, in particular, on the use of new technologies, such as webGIS and BIM, in economic and environmental assessment processes. The book is addressed to experts and scholars working on urban regeneration and aims to encourage a multidisciplinary dialogue for shaping sustainable urban areas in the next future. Turin, Italy Turin, Italy Padua, Italy Turin, Italy Milan, Italy Trieste, Italy Arcavacata, Italy

Francesca Abastante Marta Bottero Chiara D’Alpaos Luisa Ingaramo Alessandra Oppio (Chief Editor of the Springer SIEV Series) Paolo Rosato Francesca Salvo

References 1. Boulding K (1966) The economics of the coming spaceship earth. In: Jarrett EH (ed) Environmental quality in a growing economy. Resources for the future/Johns Hopkins University Press. Baltimore 2. Krutilla JV (1967) Conservation reconsidered. The American Economic Rev 57(4) (Sept 1967). The American Economic Association 3. Hardin G (1968) The tragedy of the commons, science, new series. 162(3859) (Dec 13, 1968) 4. Ostrom E (1990) Governing the commons: the evolution of institutions for collective action. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

Contents

Models and Metrics for Social Impact Assessment An Analysis of the Housing Market Dynamics in the Italian Municipalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pierluigi Morano, Francesco Tajani, Marco Locurcio, Felicia Di Liddo, and Rossana Ranieri Impact Management as a Driver of Value Creation in Payment by Results Schemes for Urban Regeneration Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Filippo Montesi Altamirano, Marta Rossi, and Nicola Cabria Creativity, Responsibility and the Social Project Finance in the Revitalization of Abandoned Territories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Salvatore Giuffrida, Carmelo Marisca, Maria Rosa Trovato, Cheren Cappello, and Ludovica Nasca An Evaluation Tool of Public–Private Conveniences in the Definition of Urban Planning Variants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pierluigi Morano, Francesco Tajani, and Debora Anelli Sustainability in Urban Regeneration: Real or Propaganda? . . . . . . . . . . Ezio Micelli and Federica Scaffidi How to Evaluate Public Spaces as High-Value Impact Opportunities for the Last Generation Adaptive Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federica Cadamuro Morgante and Alessandra Oppio

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Decision Making for Circular Cities Circularity Above Linearity: Toward a Circular Mining Approach of the Planning for Mining Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Vanessa Assumma, Marta Bottero, Giulio Mondini, and Elisa Zanetta

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Environmental Impact of Transportation Infrastructures: Integrated Methodologies for Preliminary Assessment. A Case-Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Alessio D’Auria, Gerardo Maria Cennamo, and Irina Di Ruocco Investigating “Sustainable Neighbourhoods” in the Italian Context: A Diachronic Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Federica Rotondo, Francesca Abastante, Giancarlo Cotella, and Isabella M. Lami The Value of the House-City System as an Emerging Identity Towards “Circular Architecture” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Salvatore Giuffrida, Maria Rosa Trovato, Francesco Nocera, Vittoria Ventura, Cheren Cappello, and Ludovica Nasca The Economic Evaluation of Urban Ecosystem Services into Policy-Making Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 Francesco Sica, Pierluigi Morano, Maria Rosaria Guarini, and Francesco Tajani Towards a SDGs Based Neighborhood Sustainability Evaluation Framework: A Tool for Assessing Sustainability at the Urban Micro-Scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 Valeria Saiu, Ivan Bleˇci´c, Italo Meloni, Francesco Piras, and Beatrice Scappini A Case of Local Community Engagement for Urban Regeneration: The South Boston Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 Rubina Canesi, Chiara D’Alpaos, and Giuliano Marella Circular Economy and Social Circularity. Diffuse Social Housing and Adaptive Reuse of Real Estate in Internal Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 Simona Barbaro, Grazia Napoli, and Maria Rosa Trovato The Value of Spaces in the Digital Revolution The Value of Spaces in the Digital Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247 Francesca Salvo Development of a WebGIS Open Platform to Support Community Resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 Francesca Abastante and Francesco Fiermonte When Green Turns into Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 Manuela De Ruggiero, Francesca Salvo, Daniela Tavano, and Raffaele Zinno Smart Redevelopment of Existing Buildings. Use of BIM in Economic Value Judgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291 Francesca Salvo, Manuela De Ruggiero, and Daniela Tavano

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Environmental Discount Rate and Energy Transition. An Application for Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303 Gabriella Maselli and Antonio Nesticò

Models and Metrics for Social Impact Assessment

An Analysis of the Housing Market Dynamics in the Italian Municipalities Pierluigi Morano, Francesco Tajani, Marco Locurcio, Felicia Di Liddo, and Rossana Ranieri

Abstract The Covid-19 pandemic has caused numerous variations in the global economies with repercussions in all sectors. Once the emergency phase has finished, the entire worldwide population has changed its lifestyle and has had to adapt to live with the pandemic. In particular, the several modifications that have occurred in the job market and in schools and universities have determined a necessary reorganization of domestic spaces. The present study represents the first phase of a wider research aimed at verifying the transformation in the Italian residential market demand resulted by the Covid-19. The analysis carried out in this work has been performed at the municipal level, by considering the data published by the National Institute of Statistics collected for the 15th General Census of the population and housing in 2011. The dataset collected has been processed through an advanced econometric technique in order to identify the functional relationships between the residential average unit market value and the main architectural, socio-demographic and territorial factors. Further developments of this research will concern the application of the same methodological approach proposed to data detected by the National Institute of Statistics for the 16th Census scheduled for 2021.

P. Morano · M. Locurcio · F. Di Liddo (B) Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Building Engineering and Chemistry (DICATECh), Polytechnic University of Bari, Via E. Orabona 4, 70126 Bari, Italy e-mail: [email protected] P. Morano e-mail: [email protected] M. Locurcio e-mail: [email protected] F. Tajani · R. Ranieri Department of Architecture and Design, Sapienza University of Rome, Via Flaminia 359, 00196 Rome, Italy e-mail: [email protected] R. Ranieri e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_1

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Keywords Covid-19 pandemic · Remote working · Housing market dynamics · Econometric models · Market value

1 Introduction The Covid-19 pandemic, which started in early 2020, has led to relevant changes in both global economies and socio-economic dynamics of all countries [22]. In general terms, in the first months of 2020, the international economy, already characterized by a deceleration process from the previous year, has been strongly affected by the negative impacts of the sanitary emergency. The Covid-19 and the related containment strategies have led to a global recession that differs from other events mainly in two different aspects: (i) the epidemiological origin, external to the financial and economic unbalance usual causes, (ii) the transmission channels that have involved the market supply and the demand in a rapid and intense way. However, the International Monetary Fund—IMF—has observed a slight recovery in worldwide economies in 2021, despite the spread of the “Delta variant”. This revival is heterogeneous, as it is associated to economic divergences in all over the world, mainly caused by large disparities in vaccine access and by different recovery and support policies [6]. In the Italian context, the health crisis impact on the national economy has been included in a near stagnation phase. In 2019, Gross Domestic Product—GDP—has grown by 0.3%, detecting a slowdown compared to 2018. Furthermore, in the 2020, the partial block of activities related to the health crisis has caused negative effects on the supply and demand, as in the main European countries, and the GDP has marked a contraction of − 7.8% in Italy. In the Italian context, the Covid-19 pandemic has slowed down the residential property sales in 2020, whereas in the first quarter of 2021 an increase in the housing sales volume (+ 38.6%) has been detected, partly due to the comparison with the first three months of 2020 in which the sales have completely stopped. The increase has concerned all national geographic areas, with the highest growth for the city of Genoa (+ 36.7%), followed by the cities of Rome, Turin and Naples (+ 30%). In addition, in the first part of 2021, the greatest market appreciation has concerned the largest residential units, with indoor area between 115 and 145 m2 (+ 41.2%) and over 145 m2 (+ 48.5%) [8]. In the framework outlined, the Italian government has issued the so-called “Relaunch Decree” [9] which introduces the Superbonus, i.e. a tax benefit that provides for a 110% deduction rate for maintenance work on buildings involving: (i) expenses incurred for specific energy efficiency interventions, (ii) anti-seismic interventions, (iii) installation of photovoltaic systems; (iv) infrastructures for recharging electric vehicles. The Covid-19 pandemic is having a relevant effect on different field of human activities, forcing to rethink current consolidated job models and lifestyle [17].

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The lockdown period has determined a reorganization of the days’ timeline and a redistribution of domestic spaces. The processes of reconfiguration of the activities and, consequently, of housing areas have been radically accelerated. The interpenetration of the private sphere, related to the usual actions to be carried out in home spaces (sleeping, having lunch, having dinner, having a shower, etc.) and of the public sphere (school space, workplace, sociality areas, etc.) represents a significant aspect resulting to forced period of “domestic isolation” [21]. The remote working and the distant learning have had consequences in many different aspects, such as the job markets, the real estate sectors, the transport systems, the personal wellbeing etc. Furthermore, the permanence of these conditions could also have repercussions on the office market sector (less office space may be required) and could drastically vary the domestic and the urban spaces (www.bloomberg.com) [1]. In this sense, the organization of domestic space is becoming increasingly relevant, after having lived it as hotel or, even, as dorm, because life was considered outside, in the city’s streets and squares. Moreover, the digitalization of work has changed the perception and management of housing spaces. The Italian DPCM of 11 March 2020—art. 1, no. 7, lett. A), provides that, with reference to production and professional activities and in the lockdown period, “the maximum use by companies of agile working methods is implemented for activities that can be carried out at home or remotely” [2]. The remote working has been strongly influencing the relationship between user and home: new housing places have been created in order to integrate work and daily life models. These phenomena could contribute to change the “living space”, by transforming the potential buyers’ needs and, consequently, the residential market demand. In this possible future scenario, every houses room and space will modify its uses in accordance with the new purposes: for example, the current open space living areas may be replaced by defined rooms suited to carry out the online teaching or the smart working activities. Furthermore, the new ways of working and living in houses could vary the users’ perception of outdoor spaces, i.e. balconies, condominium gardens or courtyards, or, in the case of single villas, of private terraces and patios, as the pertinence external places having been highly regarded during the lockdown. The different appreciation for specific housing elements, shown as a result of Covid-19 pandemic has been influencing the market demand and has had relevant impacts on residential selling prices in the near real estate future [11, 16].

2 Aim With reference to the Italian context, the research aims to analyze the market behaviors, investigating the real estate dynamics that link the housing prices and the factors that have the highest impact on potential buyers’ decisions. The analysis is carried out at the municipal level, considering the data published by the National Institute

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of Statistics—ISTAT—collected for the 15th general census of the population and housing in 2011 (www.istat.it) [14]. The research intends to examine the determinants of property average unit market values in 2011 in all Italian municipalities, i.e. the variables that have influenced the choices of each territorial context population in order to highlight the respective contribution to the selling prices formation processes. The function correlations between housing prices and the main variables considered have been explained through an econometric technique, which uses multi-objective genetic algorithms to search those model expressions that simultaneously maximize the accuracy of the data and the parsimony of the final mathematical functions. In particular, the implementation of an econometric technique has led to determine the functional relationships between the residential property values and the main architectural, socio-demographic and territorial factors. It should be highlighted that the present work is part of a wider and relevant research line, currently in progress. The aim concerns the comparison of the results obtained in this analysis related to the 2011 with the outputs deriving from the elaborations on the 16th general census of the population and housing to be carried out in 2021. The research intends to underline the possible demand variation as results of economic and social events occurred in the recent years, i.e. related to the current global public health crisis. In this sense, the expected outputs concern the change in the market appreciation of the property influencing factors: the main reference is represented by the architectural variables, following the different domestic space use after the new need of remote worker, students and, in general, home users revealed after the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown period. Therefore, even if the results do not reflect the current residential market phenomena, the aim of the present research is a first fundamental step for the definition of a methodological approach able to assess the variation in the functional correlations between housing prices and different influencing factors. The methodological approach developed could be useful for the Public Administration (i) to monitor the market dynamics that influence the purchase choices of potential buyers, (ii) to address the future planning decisions according to the needs detected in each territorial context and (iii) to identify the most convenient areas for the investment, also in view of the current fiscal incentives aimed at promoting building works for the energy efficiency improvement. Furthermore, the proposed method could be a valid reference for the private investors (i) to provide a framework for addressing the design phases of single residential unit and (ii) to support the investment decision processes aimed at planning effective and profitable initiatives.

3 Case Study The population of the three study samples concerns a total of 8,064 Italian municipalities located in the three macro-areas in which the national territory is ordinarily divided (Northern Italy, Central Italy and Southern Italy and the Islands).

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Compared to the total number of Italian municipalities in 2011—8092 municipalities, it should be noted that in the analysis 28 municipalities have been excluded for data unavailability. In particular, in the Northern cluster the Valle d’Aosta, Piedmont, Lombardy, Trentino-Alto Adige, Veneto, Liguria, Emilia-Romagna and Friuli Venice Julia regions are included with 4534 municipalities; in the Central macro-area Tuscany, Lazio, Umbria and Marche regions are included with 993 municipalities; in the Southern and the islands macro-area the territory of Apulia, Molise, Basilicata, Calabria, Abruzzo, Campania, Sicilia and Sardinia regions are covered with a total of 2537 municipalities.

3.1 Variables Within each macro-area, the property average unit market values (P), expressed in e/m2 represents the dependent variable of the model. The data related to this variable have been collected through the analysis of the elaborations on the market transactions published by the Observatory of the Real Estate Market and Estimative Services of the Italian Revenue Agency—OMI—(www.agenziaentrate.gov.it) [7]. In particular, the information considered in the analysis is the average value between the minimum value and the maximum one of the “civilian housing” and “economic housing” categories. With reference to the data published by ISTAT for the 15th general census of population and housing in 2011, the variables considered in the model for each municipality of the three samples are classified as follows: Architectural variables • • • • • • • • • • • •

the number of residential load-bearing masonry buildings [M]; the number of residential buildings in reinforced concrete [C]; the number of residential buildings in other materials (steel, wood, etc.) [O]; the number of residential buildings built before 1919 [Ba]; the number of residential buildings built from 1919 to 1980 [Bb]; the number of residential buildings built after 1980 [Bc]; the number of residential buildings with a maximum of eight residential units or flats [Fa]; the number of residential buildings with more than eight residential units or flats [Fb]; the number of residential buildings characterized by excellent maintenance condition [Me]; the number of residential buildings characterized by good maintenance condition [Mg]; the number of residential buildings characterized by mediocre/inadequate maintenance condition [Mm]; the number of residential buildings characterized by very poor maintenance condition [Md];

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• the surface of the residential unit per occupant/inhabitant in the occupied flats, expressed as the number of inhabitants in square meters of gross floor area [S]. Socio-demographic variables • the resident population under the age of 30, expressed as the number of inhabitants [Pa]; • the resident population between ages of 30 and 45, expressed as the number of inhabitants [Pb]; • the resident population over the age of 45, expressed as the number of inhabitants [Pc]. • the resident population with old and the new order university degree or nonuniversity tertiary diplomas, expressed as the number of inhabitants [Ps]; • the total resident population of 15 years and more producer of job income, expressed as the number of inhabitants [Pj]. Territorial variables • the value of degree day recorded for each municipality [Sc]1 ; • the seismic zone in which the municipality is located [Sc]2 .

1

Degree days are defined by Presidential Decree n. 412/93 as the sum, extended to all days of a conventional annual heating period, of the only daily positive differences between the ambient/room temperature, conventionally set at 20 degrees Celsius, and the average daily external temperature. The unit of measurement used is the degree-day (DD). In brief, a low value of DD indicates the hottest areas where the external temperatures are closer to 20 °C and, therefore, there is less need for heating. On the other hand, a high DD value shows the areas in which the daily temperatures are very different from 20 °C and a more rigid climate with higher need for heating is found. On the basis of degree days values, the Italian territory has been divided into six climatic zones, for which the same or very similar climatic conditions are detected. In particular, the zone A indicates the warmest municipalities, whereas the F one refers to the coldest ones. The Presidential Decree n. 412/93 updated to 31 October 2009—Table A reports the climatic zones classified according to the list of Italian municipalities divided by regions and provinces [3]. 2 The seismic zone in which the municipality is located is defined by considering the Ordinance of President of the Council of Ministers n. 3274 of 20 March 2003. The Italian territory has been divided into 4 main categories that indicate each municipality seismic risk, calculated according to the Peak Ground Acceleration—PGA, i.e. the peak acceleration to the ground, and to the frequency and intensity of events: seismic zone 1 (high seismicity—PGA over 0.25 g), seismic zone 2 (medium– high seismicity—PGA between 0.15 and 0.25 g), seismic zone 3 (medium–low seismicity—PGA between 0.05 and 0.15 g), seismic zone 4 (low seismicity—PGA between less 0.05 g). Zone 1 is the most dangerous, as catastrophic events are frequent; in zone 2 strong earthquakes, although of lesser intensity, can occur and create significant damage. Zone 3 is characterized by a low seismicity, which however in particular geological contexts increase. Finally, Zone 4 is the lowest seismic risk area in the national territory, as slight and sporadic tremors are possible, with a low possibility of causing damage [15].

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4 Method The method implemented in the present research is a data-driven technique, called Evolutionary Polynomial Regression EPR [5], that is a versatile symbolic regression tool. The technique has been already explained in several researches, as it has been implemented in the real estate appraisal field in [13, 18–20]. In the present research an evolution of EPR has been proposed and tested. This technique, called Multi-Case Strategy for EPR (MCS-EPR), allows to obtain generalized prediction models able to identify the functional relationships that simultaneously describe the selling prices mechanism in different study samples, i.e. in different territorial contexts or for different situations. In this sense, in order to study a phenomenon in different cases/contexts, the MCS-EPR defines a “generalized” equation for determining the price, in which the influential factors between those initially considered and the related functional correlations with market values are identified. The several models obtained from the implementation of the technique are valid for all the samples analyzed. In the present study only the main characteristics able to clarify the MCS-EPR use are illustrated. In brief, the MCS-EPR strategy searches for the model unique expression, in which the explanatory variables are combined. Furthermore, the different polynomial coefficient parameters for all considered data samples are identified. Thus, although the functional relationships between influencing factors and property prices are the same in absolute terms for all study samples, the numerical multiplicative parameters are different for each case analyzed. In the real estate sector the MCS-EPR has been implemented in order to study the influence of influencing factors on selling prices in three Italian study samples [12] and in the different urban areas of the city of Bari [4]. In particular, the generic polynomial expression is reported in Eq. (1): Y = a0 +

n Σ

[ai · (X1 )(i,1) · ... · (Xj )(i,j) · f ((X1 )(i,j+1) · ... · (Xj )(i,2j) )]

(1)

i=1

where n is the number of additive terms of the polynomial expression (bias excluded), ai are numerical parameters to be valued, X i are candidate explanatory variables, (i, l)—with l = (1, …, 2j)—is the exponent of the l-th variable input within the i-th term in Eq. (1), f is a function constructed by the process during the implementation of the methodology. The exponents (i, l) are also selected by the user in the preliminary phase from a range of real numbers. The parameters aj are evaluated by a Least Squares method. The quantity and the mathematical complexity of the models generated by the technique depend on the maximum number of terms and of exponents that the user set in the preliminary phase of the implementation.

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Therefore, the technique generates a wide range of solutions, each one characterized by a more or less complex algebraic structure and by a different level of statistical accuracy. With reference to the statistical performance of each model, a generalized Coefficient of Determination (CODMCS ) defined in Eq. (2), is calculated. The closer to the unit value the CODMCS is, the more suitable the model structure is in representing the overall observed dataset. Σm Σ k=1

CODMCS = 1 − Σ N

Nk

(yk − yrilevato )2

(yrilevato − media(yrilevato ))2

(2)

The final choice of the best solution is made by the user, taking into account the knowledge of the study phenomenon and the purpose of the analysis carried out.

5 Application of the MCS-EPR Technique to the Three Study Samples Before explaining the application of the MCS-EPR technique to the three study samples, it is necessary to specify that the first test carried out to analyze the functional correlation between the explanatory variables and selling prices with reference to 2011, has been concerned the implementation of the EPR technique to a unique database of 8064 Italian municipalities. In this sense, the division of the three study samples (Northern Italy macro-area, Central Italy macro-area, Southern Italy and Islands) has not been considered in this first step of the analysis. The results obtained have not been good in statistical terms and the functional relationships have not been confirmed the empirical phenomena expected. This situation could be explained either by the dataset detected in the original step of the analysis, i.e. the factors selected, or by the presence of anomalous data. Thus, the detected data analysis has led to verify the existence of three different clusters in which the property prices formation processes could be unique. With reference to the three Italian geographical macro-areas ordinarily considered, the MCS-EPR technique has been implemented in order to investigate the housing market phenomenon related to the formation of prices. Therefore, in the present research, the MCS-EPR technique has been implemented considering the base model structure reported in Eq. (1) with no function f selected. In the model the dependent variable is represented by the natural logarithm of the property average unit market values (Y = ln(P)), in line with the reference literature relating the property market [10]. The implementation of the technique to the three study samples has generated several models. The mathematical form of each equation consists of an algebraic sum of monomial terms, and each one is a combination of the input variables (i.e.

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11

the explanatory variables) raised to appropriate numerical exponents. In the present research, the possible candidate exponents are equal to (0; 0.5; 1; 2), whereas the maximum number of terms of each returned equation is equal to eight. Among the model generated by MCS-EPR, the generalized model selected is reported in Eq. (3). In particular, it is characterized by a good level of statistical reliability, confirmed the CODMSC value equal to 66.03%. Y = a1 · Sc0.5 + a2 · Ps0.5 + a3 · Ps0.5 · S 0.5 + a4 · Ps · Md + a5 · Pb · Ps0.5 · Sa2 + a6 · Pa0.5 · Fa0.5 · Sa0.5 · Sc2 + a7 · Pa0.5 · Ps0.5 · Pj 0.5 · Fa2 + a8 · Pa2 · Pj 0.5 + a0

(3)

The analysis of the model of Eq. (3) gives rise to interesting considerations. First of all, the variables selected in the generalized model as the most influential in the explanation of the property average unit market values processes in all the three macro-areas of the Italian territory are the following: • for the architectural variables: the surface of the residential unit per inhabitant in the occupied flats [S], the number of residential buildings characterized by inadequate maintenance condition [Md], the number of residential buildings with a maximum of eight residential units or flats [Fa]; • for the socio-demographic variables: the resident population under the age of 30 [Pa]; the resident population between ages of 30 and 45 [Pb]; the resident population with old and the new order university degree or non-university tertiary diplomas [Ps]; the total resident population of 15 years and more producer of job income [Pj]; • for the territorial variables: the value of degree day recorded for each municipality [Sc] and the seismic zone in which the municipality is located [Sa]. The other variables, initially considered in the analysis, are not included in the generalized model. This attests that in 2011—reference year of the collected data— some typological and architectural residential buildings characteristics were not taken into consideration by the ordinarily buyers in all Italian municipalities. In other words, in 2011 a scarce attention of the market operators has been highlighted with reference to the structure typology—load-bearing masonry, reinforced concrete or other materials, as steel, wood, etc., or the building age or the excellent maintenance conditions, that might indicate the presence of innovative technological systems. The scarce market appreciation to these aspects attests a perception lack of the added value that could result from one architectural factor rather than another. Moreover, from the analysis of model of Eq. (3), it should be observed that all variables are combined within the same additive terms and, in some cases, also appear several times within the expression.

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In order to identify the specific model of each study sample, the numerical multiplicative parameters ai have been replaced in the model. In Table 1 the coefficients of the generalized model selected for each of the three study samples are reported. Given the specific parameters for each study sample, the three models for the three Italian macro-areas considered are illustrated in Eqs. (4), (5) and (6) (Table 2). The models obtained are characterized by COD values respectively equal to 70.78% for the Northern Italy macro-area, to 66.55% for the Central Italy macro-area and to 67.46% for the Southern Italy and Islands macro-area. All coefficients are different from the zero value, except for the a8 parameter for the Southern Italy and Islands study sample: anyway, this multiplicative coefficient does not nullify the influence of the variables Pa and Pj—that are in the same term with a8—as the same factors are in other terms of the mathematic expression. Table 1 Numerical coefficients aj of the generalized model a0

a1

a2

a3

a4

a5

a6

a7

a8

Northern Italy

8.85

− 4.31

14.89

− 11.3

− 3.30

− 6.58

5.90

− 12.9

− 5.60

Central Italy

7.98

− 1.99

12.70

− 8.35

− 7.10

3.36

3.44

− 17.6

− 17.11

Southern Italy and Islands

6.13

− 0.55

12.21

− 7.84

− 6.04

2.53

1.61

− 17.0

0

Table 2 Models obtained for each Italian macro-area analyzed Y = −4.31 · Sc0.5 + 14.89 · Ps0.5 − 11.28 · Ps0.5 · S0.5 − 3.30 · Ps · Md − 6.58 · Pb · Ps0.5 · Sa2 Northern Italy

+ 5.90 · Pa0.5 · Fa0.5 · Sa0.5 · Sc2

(4)

− 12.91 · Pa0.5 · Ps0.5 · Pj0.5 · Fa2 + 5.60 · Pa2 · Pj0.5 + 8.85 Y = −1.99 · Sc0.5 + 12.71 · Ps0.5 − 8.35 · Ps0.5 · S0.5 −7.10 · Ps · Md + 3.37 · Pb · Ps0.5 · Sa2 Central Italy

+ 3.44 · Pa0.5 · Fa0.5 · Sa0.5 · Sc2 − 17.62 · Pa

0.5

· Ps

0.5

· Pj

0.5

· Fa

(5)

2

+ 17.11 · Pa2 · Pj0.5 + 7.98 Y = −0.55 · Sc0.5 + 12.21 · Ps0.5 −7.85 · Ps0.5 · S0.5 Southern Italy and Islands

−6.04 · Ps · Md + 2.54 · Pb · Ps0.5 · Sa2 + 1.61 · Pa0.5 · Fa0.5 · Sa0.5 · Sc2 − 17.00 · Pa0.5 · Ps0.5 · Pj0.5 · Fa2 + 6.13

(6)

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In this regard, it should be pointed out that for each variable selected by the technique and shown in the Eqs. (4), (5) and (6) does not allow to immediately check the empirical consistency of the signs of the independent variables with the real phenomena, due to the presence of several variables in the same additive terms and/or the repetition of the same variables in more expression terms, also with opposed functional correlation. Therefore, more accurate analyzes are necessary for the empirical interpretation of the model of Eqs. (4), (5) and (6). In order to (i) verify the trend of each factor selected by the generalized model and (ii) quantitatively specify the contribution of each independent variable in the formation of the housing prices, an exogenous mathematical approach has been implemented. In particular, by varying the i-th influencing factor in the eligible range for the three study samples, and by keeping constant the values of the other factors, for each variable the analysis of the functional correlation between the specific variable and the property average market values has been carried out. For all explanatory factors selected as influencing in the property market value formation, the trends detected have been found consistent with the expected outputs. In Fig. 1 the main functional links related to the architectural variables are reported. With reference to the aim of the present research, the choice to investigate in detail the factors connected to the architectural aspects is reasonably justified. In fact, it is recalled that the present analysis represents a first step of a research work in progress that will be implemented with the outputs deriving from the elaborations on the 16th general census of the population and housing to be carried out in 2021. In general terms, in fact, the research intends to underline the possible demand variation as NORTHERN ITALY

CENTRAL ITALY

SOUTHERN ITALY AND ISLAND

Fa

S

Md

Fig. 1 Functional correlations between the main influencing architectural factors ([Fa]; [S]; [Md]) and the property average unit market values

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results of relevant economic and social events occurred in the recent years, e.g. the Covid-19 pandemic.

6 Conclusions The present study constitutes the first phase of a wider research aimed at analysing and monitoring the housing market dynamics that influence the purchase choices of potential buyers. In particular, the main goal of this research concerns the definition a methodological approach capable of: (i) providing a framework for addressing the design of individual housing units due to possible changes in market demand and/or the definition of new home spaces; (ii) guiding the future investment choices of public operators for the drafting of planning strategies in the residential segment; (iii) defining a valid reference for private operators for the definition of effective and profitable investments. Recent developments regarding the global health crisis have highlighted that “the pandemic is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere”. If Covid-19 pandemic were to have a prolonged impacts into the medium and long term, it could reduce GDP by a cumulative $5.3 trillion over the next five years (www.imf.com), and permanently vary the community requirements of domestic spaces. This study has developed a methodological approach able to analyse the correlation between the main influencing factors in the housing prices formation mechanisms and to monitor the dynamics modifications by taking into account different market phases. Future developments of the research will concern the verification of the existence and extension of significant changes that could occur in the housing market appreciation of architectural, socio-demographic and territorial factors by the potential buyers. As regards the future implications on real estate markets, the outputs obtained in the present research provide a reference framework able to appropriately describe the price formation mechanisms in Italy. The application of the same methodology in the post Covid-19 pandemic situation will allow to verify the effects of this event on real estate market and to monitor the functional correlations typologies, in order to attest the permanence or the resilience of the dynamics observed. These analyses represent a fundamental tool to be implemented to orient the investment choices processes consistently with the currents needs and the most relevant influencing factors considered by the potential buyers and sellers in the bargaining phases, towards effective and profitable decisions. The trend of real estate market should be examined both in terms of variations of selling prices and of different intrinsic developments, for the purpose to investigate its evolution over time and the permanent and/or temporary impacts caused by exogenous events.

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References 1. Bloomberg news. Available online https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2021-0428/what-will-the-world-of-work-look-like-after-covid-19. Accessed on 18 Oct 2021 2. Decree of the President of the Council of Ministers (March 11, 2020) Further provisions implementing decree-law no. 6 of February 23, 2020, on urgent measures for the containment and management of the epidemiological emergency from COVID-19, applicable throughout the country 3. Decree of the President of the Republic No. 412 (August 26, 1993) Regulation laying down rules for the design, installation, operation and maintenance of heating systems of buildings for the containment of energy consumption, in implementation of article 4, paragraph 4, of law January 9, 1991, no 10 4. Di Liddo F, Morano P, Tajani F, Torre CM (2020) An innovative methodological approach for the analysis of the effects of urban interventions on property prices. Valori E Valutazioni 26 5. Giustolisi O, Savic DA (2006) A symbolic data-driven technique based on evolutionary polynomial regression. J Hydr 8(3):207–222 6. International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2021) Outlook October 2021. Available online https:// www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october2021. Accessed on 18 Oct 2021 7. Italian Revenue Agency (2021) Observatory of the real estate market (OMI). Available online https://www.agenziaentrate.gov.it. Accessed on 10 Feb 2021 8. Italian Revenue Agency (2021) Trading volumes. Available online https://www.agenziaen trate.gov.it/portale/web/guest/schede/fabbricatiterreni/omi/banche-dati/volumi-di-compraven dita/archivio-volumi-di-compravendita. Accessed on 18 Oct 2021 9. Law decree n. 34/2020 converted into law, by law n. 77, 17 July 2020, urgent measures on health, support for work and the economy, and social policies related to the epidemiological emergency from COVID-19 10. Lynch AK, Rasmussen DW (2004) Proximity, neighbourhood and the efficacy of exclusion. Urb Stud 41:285–298 11. Mattiacci A, Nocenzi M, Sfodera F, Sofia C (2020) Le conseguenze sull’attività professionale: tra incertezze e opportunità. In: Lombardo C, Mauceri S (eds) La Società catastrofica, vita e relazioni sociali ai tempi dell’emergenza Covid-19. FrancoAngeli, Milan, Italy, pp 100–130 12. Morano P, Rosato P, Tajani F, Manganelli B, Di Liddo F (2019) Contextualized property market models vs. generalized mass appraisals: an innovative approach. Sustainability 11(18):4896 13. Morano P, Tajani F, Locurcio M (2018) Multicriteria analysis and genetic algorithms for mass appraisals in the Italian property market. Int J Housing Mark Anal 11(2):229–262 14. National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) (2021) General census 2011. Available online https://www.istat.it/it/censimenti-permanenti/censimenti-precedenti/popolazione-e-abi tazioni/popolazione-2011. Accessed on 10 Mar 2021 15. Ordinance of president of the council of ministers n. 3274 of 20 March 2003, first elements on general criteria for the seismic classification of the national territory and technical regulations for buildings in seismic areas 16. Signorelli C, Capolongo S, D’alessandro D, Fara GM (2020) The homes in the COVID-19 era. How their use and values are changing. Acta Biomed 91(9):92–94 17. Stanghellini S, Breglia M (2020) Valutare nell’incertezza, un modello previsivo 2020– 2025. Available online https://www.scenari-immobiliari.it/2020/04/30/valutare-nellincertezzaun-modello-previsivo-2020-2025/. Accessed on 25 July 2021 18. Tajani F, Morano P, Locurcio M, D’Addabbo N (2015) Property valuations in times of crisis: artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms in comparison. In: Gervasi O et al (eds) Computational science and its applications—ICCSA 2015. Lecture notes in computer science. Springer, Cham, pp 194–209

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19. Tajani F, Morano P, Saez-Perez MP, Di Liddo F, Locurcio M (2019) Multivariate dynamic analysis and forecasting models of future property bubbles: empirical applications to the housing markets of Spanish metropolitan cities. Sustainability 11(13):3575 20. Tajani F, Ntalianis K, Di Liddo F (2017) An assessment model for the periodic reviews of the market values of property assets. In: Gervasi O et al (eds) Computational science and its applications—ICCSA 2017. Lecture notes in computer science, vol 10406. Springer, Cham, pp 490–500 21. Tajani F, Morano P, Di Liddo F, Guarini MR, Ranieri R (2021) The effects of covid-19 pandemic on the housing market: a case study in Rome (Italy). In: Gervasi O et al (eds) Computational science and its applications—ICCSA 2021, Lecture notes in computer science, vol 12954. Springer, Cham, pp 50–62 22. World Health Organization (WHO) (2021) Corona virus (COVID 19) dashboard. Available online https://covid19.who.int/. Accessed on 25 May 2021

Impact Management as a Driver of Value Creation in Payment by Results Schemes for Urban Regeneration Projects Filippo Montesi Altamirano, Marta Rossi, and Nicola Cabria

Abstract Contemporary changes in cities and territories raise dramatic contradictions between growth and sustainability. In this context, impact measurement and management can provide a useful approach to promote sustainable urban development, by addressing the complexity of social change, accounting for value from the perspective of all relevant stakeholders and providing actionable insights on how to reduce trade-offs between stakeholder groups’ interests and development goals in a context of limited financial and non-financial resources. Payment by Results instruments represent a promising scheme to promote innovation and comprehend the needs of the community. The Social Innovation Fund (FIS), established in 2019 by the Italian Government, precisely requires PbR schemes to sustain urban regeneration and social innovation projects. The paper illustrates the model of intervention, the measurement approach and the financing mechanism of two projects funded by the FIS addressing social exclusion, taking place in Lucca and Perugia. The two case studies will shed light on the importance of measuring impact in regeneration urban projects to align investment decisions with environmental and social objectives. Keywords Urban regeneration · Public and private partnership · Impact measurement · Social value · Decision making processes

F. Montesi Altamirano (B) · M. Rossi · N. Cabria Human Foundation - Do&Think Tank per l’Innovazione Sociale, Rome, Italy e-mail: [email protected] M. Rossi e-mail: [email protected] N. Cabria e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_2

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1 Introduction Cities and territories are experiencing rapid and dramatic changes that deeply affect the livelihood of people for the better and the worse. Globally, about 6.1 billion inhabitants live in cities, and more than 80% of global GDP is produced in cities [1]. Urbanisation is occurring in most regions of the world at a very fast pace under different demographic conditions (net population change as well as rural–urban migration, immigration and changing age structures), economic factors (GDP, investment in research and development, employment and innovation), and social factors (high quality of life and service provision in cities). In Europe, urbanisation is continuing with peculiar patterns compared to other regions. Although Europe has historically been much more urbanised, the spatial growth of its urban areas has continued to grow and has exceeded the pace of demographic one. In addition, European cities are on average denser than in other parts of the world, and are predominantly mid-sized [2]. According to [3], built-up areas in urban areas increased in Europe by 18%, while population growth has been very limited (1.5%). Urban areas in 2015 had only 8 million more inhabitants compared to 1990, despite the additional 18,500 km2 of urban built-up areas. In the city, the contradictions between growth and sustainability become particularly manifest. It is the space where value is created and destroyed, distributed and accrued by different groups of stakeholders in uneven ways. Within the same city we might see the residents be served by good public services and have access to adequate urban infrastructure, such as water and energy supplies, sanitation, education, and green space or parks, whereas other residents lack basic infrastructure and face overcrowding, pollution along with other environmental problems [4]. Furthermore, urban cities are considered as the “powerhouses of economic growth”, as most economic activity occurs here [5], and tend to attract large financial assets compared to other territories, as the financialization of the economy has progressed [6]. As [7] underscored, financialization has a synergic relationship with space, understood as a relational concept, in both directions. The market finance categories of risk, return and liquidity deeply influence the urban fabric, the relation between centre and periphery, along with the regional development. On the one hand, the centralization in financial institutions contributes to determining the spatial differences in liquidity preference and in the availability of complex financial services, which reinforces the polarisation of resources throughout the territory. On the other hand, the spatial centralization of financial services is an unbalancing force for regional growth, where only a few central regions reap the benefits of financial and economic growth. Spatial practice in its entirety includes reorganization of the industry of space around finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE); as the financial industry became dominant amassing the largest exchange value ever, space became one of its main tools while securitization sped up circulation, deregulation made room for highly speculative financial instruments, and the state brought all forces together around a new developmentalist agenda and form (governance) [8].

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In face of these patterns and trends, cities apparently play a major role to attain sustainable development, as pinpointed by the 2030 Agenda for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Indeed, Goal 11 aims at making cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable, but also other SDGs deeply relate with this challenge, such as SDG 7 on clean energy, SDG 9 on resilient infrastructure and innovation, SDG 12 on sustainable consumption and production patterns, SDG 13 on climate change, and SDG 10 on reduced inequalities. For this purpose, more and more cities in Europe are designing and implementing urban redevelopment projects, which are shaped by public policies and investment decisions and shape how value is generated and distributed to the city stakeholders [9]. However, research and practice highlight the political, social and environmental contradictions of sustainability, as are emerging disagreements over local priorities, competing interests among different stakeholder groups, and risks associated with future uncertainty [10].

1.1 The Importance of Value and Impact Management As [11] observes, many definitions underscore the multidimensionality and complexity of value as a concept and provide different meanings according to the context specificities. In accounting, value is the monetary worth of an asset, business entity, good sold, service rendered, or liability or obligation acquired, whereas, in economics it is the worth of all the benefits and rights arising from ownership. Two types of economic value are (1) the utility of a good or service, and (2) power of a good or service to command other goods, services, or money, in voluntary exchange [12]. The value concept is different in the Third Sector and social economy, where its meaning tends to conflate with that of “social impact” and “social return” [13]. For example, [14] refers to “the full extent of its social, environmental and economic impacts (intended and unintended, positive or negative)”, and recognises that “value is subjective and requires discussion between different stakeholders and agreement on what is to be valued in particular circumstances”. According to Social Value International, the Global Network for Social Value and Impact Management, “social value is the quantification of the relative importance that people place on the changes they experience in their lives” [15]. As a matter of fact, market prices encapsulate value only partially. Social value should be measured, by taking the perspective of those affected by a public policy or an organisation’s activity. Examples of social value might be the value experienced from an increase in self-confidence or from living next to a community park. These aspects are important for people but are not commonly expressed or measured in the same way that financial value is. Applied to public policy and procurement, social value is “a way of thinking about how scarce resources are allocated and used. It involves looking beyond the price of

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each individual contract and looking at what the collective benefit to a community is when a public body chooses to award a contract. Social value asks the question: ‘If £1 is spent on the delivery of services, can that same £1 be used, to also produce a wider benefit to the community?” [16]. If social value, indeed, includes not only intended outcomes but also the wider outcomes that arise from the activities carried out or financed by an organisation, on people, community and the environment, then the accountability of an organisation inevitably should expand. Like in financial accounting, an organisation, either public or private, should provide information about its decisions so that stakeholders—including the local community residents and more in general citizens—can hold organizations to account. In face of these tremendous challenges, impact measurement and management can provide a useful approach to promote sustainable development, by addressing the complexity of social change, accounting for value from the perspective of all relevant stakeholders and providing actionable insights on how to reduce trade-offs between stakeholder groups’ interests and development goals in a context of limited financial and non-financial resources. According to Social Value UK [17] impact management is the process of measuring and managing the creation and destruction of social and environmental impacts to maximize it. When managing impact, an organisation will go through and make decisions based on the definition of: • • • • • • • • • •

The problem to be solved; The proposed solution to the problem; Who experiences changes as a result of activities; What outcomes are experienced; How to measure the amount of change to the outcomes; How much change in each outcome has happened; For how long to measure the outcomes; What is the relative importance of the different changes in outcomes; How much of the change in each outcome is caused by the activities; Which changes matter and are important enough to manage.

The assessment of the relative importance of changes in outcomes entails a process of valuation, which assigns values to the outcomes that an organisation has on people and the planet. When valuation is carried out through financial proxies, as is in Social Return on Investment analysis [18], we refer to impact monetization. The monetization approach seeks to express the complex impact of different investments in financial terms that are understood by most stakeholders. The ultimate objective is to support investment decisions, which have traditionally been made by public and private actors on purely financial value considerations with increasingly devastating social and environmental consequences. Hence, monetization marks an opportunity for organizations to elicit and integrate impact value, positive and negative, into the existing decision-making processes [19].

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1.2 Urban Redevelopment Projects and Payment by Results Schemes To develop sustainable cities in a way that social, environmental, and economic factors are adequately taken into account, it is vital that decision-making processes include not only the criteria of risk, return and liquidity but also those of environmental and social value. Planning and implementation processes also require involving key stakeholders along with holistic approaches and coordination focused on environmental and social outcomes. Through such an integrated and multi-stakeholder approach, urban redevelopment projects would involve financial intermediaries and local authorities, SMEs and large enterprises, non-profit organisations and civil society. From this perspective, Payment by Results (PbR) instruments represent a promising scheme to promote innovation and comprehend the needs of the community. As a matter of fact, PbR instruments have rapidly grown in the world during the last ten years. According to the GO Lab’s Impact Bond Dataset, 227 Impact Bonds are running in 35 countries. Most of them are implemented in the UK (89), the USA (27), the Netherlands (17), Portugal (16) and France (10), and apply to the welfare, employment and education sectors. 1. The definition of PbR includes all those financial instruments in which the reimbursement of the investment is linked to the achievement of the objectives established. An example of PbR is the Social Impact Bond (SIB), a financial instrument defined by the partnership between public and private stakeholders. In a SIB, investors provide the initial capital to put in practice social initiatives, the service suppliers carry out the project and the outcome payer (generally public institutions) reimburse the investors when the agreed social objectives are achieved, after auditing by an independent organisation [20]. The win–win relations between these different key actors of public, private, and third sectors are described in Fig. 1. In PbR instruments, service suppliers are involved through an outcome-based contract (OBC), an agreement between partners with the aim of achieving social and environmental results that are defined and measurable. OBCs are intended to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the interventions, linking the payment of service suppliers to their achievement of specific outcomes.

2 The Social Innovation Fund’s Experience in Italy The Social Innovation Fund (FIS), established in 2019 by the Prime Minister’s Decree D.P.C.M 21 December 2018, finances the interventions, referred to in art. 5 of the same D.P.C.M. as part of a three-year Program for Social Innovation aimed

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Fig. 1 Stakeholders and model of interactions in PbR schemes (image elaborated from Social Finance [21])

at strengthening the capacity of local public administrations to carry out social innovation interventions. Such models of intervention must be designed to generate new solutions, models, and approaches to meet social needs, by involving private sector actors. Therefore, these interventions are expected to provide answers both “more effective as for citizens’ needs and more efficient as for the allocation and use of public resources” [22]. In 2019, the Prime Minister’s Office, Department of Public Function, issued a public notice for the selection of experimental projects of social innovation. The selected projects aimed at improving the quality of services and the well-being of citizens of specific local communities, in the areas of social inclusion, cultural animation and/or combating early school leaving. For the selected projects, the Fund finances, in succession, the following stages, each one lasting 12 months: • Stage 1: Feasibility study and executive planning • Stage 2: Testing of the intervention model • Stage 3: Consolidation of the model and the financial scheme. Overall, the FIS can be considered a scheme to collect additional financial resources, both public and private, to be delivered for financing innovative projects that foster sustainable development of territories and local communities through: • Social innovation: promotion of innovative models of intervention targeting vulnerable sectors of population to respond to new and/or growing social needs and create positive social impact in their lives, i.e., in the field of social services and urban regeneration;

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• Financial innovation: attraction of additional private capital for financing public policies, especially through schemes bounded to the measurement of social impact, such as the Payment by Result (PbR); • Administrative innovation: development of forms of integration between public administration, social private and private-for-profit sectors in the development of actions of collective interest (governance mechanisms and related administrative processes).

2.1 The Role of Social Impact Evaluation in FIS Projects It is worth noting that impact measurement and management are required in the projects funded by the FIS, since they are part and parcel of the PbR schemes, foreseen to make the experimented models of intervention sustainable in the long run and maximize social and economic impact. In this sense, the notice of the FIS required the involvement of at least one public proposing administration (the beneficiary), a supplier of the service or implementer of the intervention, an investor or private lender, and an external evaluator. As it shall be explained in more detail in the two case studies, impact measurement and management are essential to assess the extent to which social and economic outcomes are experienced by the target population and local communities, as well as to orient decisions over the funding and the future continuation of the experimented interventions. Notably, the FIS provided the selected Municipalities and their partnerships with some guidelines for the development of social impact measurement models. These guidelines distinguish between hard and soft outcomes, and between cashable and non-cashable outcomes, and suggest the proper measurement tools and sources of verification. This categorisation, illustrated in Tables 1 and 2, attempts to analytically grasp the material and immaterial texture of cities [23]. Table 1 FIS outcomes qualification (translation from Corvo [24]) Typology of the outcome

• Hard: measured with quantitative methods and objectively verifiable • Soft: measured with qualitative methods and quantified via perceptive analyses which are not always objectively verifiable

Cashability • Cashable: generates social value which can be transformed in financial value (in of the terms of lower costs/higher revenues) outcome • Non-cashable: generates social value which cannot be transformed in financial value

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Table 2 Recommended measurement tools for different types of outcomes (translation from Corvo [24]) Hard

Soft

Cashable

• Indicators • Data from verifiable sources • Financial proxies

• Indicators • Data collected via survey • Financial proxies

Non-cashable

• Indicators • Data from verifiable sources

• Indicators • Data collected via survey

2.2 The Intervention Models of the FIS Funded Initiatives in Lucca and Perugia In what follows, two interventions funded by the FIS will be illustrated, taking place in Lucca and Perugia, two medium-scale cities in Italy. Both projects address social exclusion, by modifying the social and material urban structure, i.e. building new social relations and renewing or constructing spaces where such interactions can take place. For each case study, a short description of the model of intervention, the measurement approach and the financing mechanism will be provided.

2.2.1

Lucca: Inclusion and Mixité

The first case study presented is the project “Co-Mix—Co-generating inclusive mixité in the city”. The project focuses on the areas of social inclusion and cultural animation, with two general objectives: • contributing to processes of social and urban regeneration in peripheral areas, through the redevelopment and re-use of real estate for the creation of a network of collaborative living and social housing • organising and animating collective spaces of the target neighbourhoods, structuring forms of civic participation, school integration, socio-economic inclusion and cultural animation based on the “dimension of place”. The targets of this community welfare model are young people at risk of social exclusion and their families, with particular regard to NEETs (Not in Employment, Education or Training) and young people with disabilities. The model of intervention is structured in two lines of action, each contributing to a specific objective of Co-Mix. The first set of activities aims at creating a network of collaborative living and social housing, structuring around it forms of civic participation, especially addressed to young people with disabilities, and to NEETs. For the former, the project provides 6 accommodations owned by the Municipality of Lucca, where will be experimented independent living models. For the latter, the Municipality will provide for 3 accommodations, where models of cohabitation among youth and independent living will be tested.

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In both cases, the living arrangement will be complemented by services of social and economic inclusion offered by two new polyfunctional centres (“citizens hubs”) created by Co-Mix and bound to the second set of activities, called “Starting up communities”. This aims at fostering community dynamics of collaboration and civic engagement based on the young residents’ active involvement. Moreover, the new hubs will be dedicated to the production and use of educational, cultural, and economic initiatives to enhance and animate the suburbs.

2.2.2

Perugia: Social Housing, Technology, and Sense of Belonging

The second case study is the Intergenerational Housing Project (IHP) of Perugia. The project concentrates on social inclusion, catering the needs of vulnerable people for housing, social and health care, and belonging to a community. The IHP seeks to address these issues by setting up a housing complex which provides a safe place, where psychological and physical care services are offered, and a supportive settlement, where intergenerational and cooperative relationships are weaved to produce a generative welfare system. The already existing “Le Corti Perugine” housing complex will host the following target users: partially dependent people over 65 years old, possibly along with their children with disability; people over 65 years old in post-acute conditions and/or protected discharge; people with housing needs, such as guiltless defaulters, students, and young couples. The collaborative housing model provides that people in housing disadvantage will offer a certain amount of assistance to people over 65 years old in exchange for rents at below market rates or free of charge. As for the over 65-yearold residents, the FIS financial support will allow them to enjoy all the IHP services for free during the testing and consolidation phases; afterwards, residents will pay an annual welfare membership card to contribute to the financial sustainability of the intervention. Besides this intergenerational mutual support, the IHP model provides for a series of social-welfare and social-health services, which integrate the housing offer, which can be offered to each resident (individual), aimed at the whole social housing community (common), or complementary in relation to these basic services. Such a combination of actions is expected to produce a significant impact for the beneficiaries, the community and the public social-welfare and social-health authorities.

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2.3 Models of Monitoring and Evaluation of Lucca and Perugia’s FIS Funded Initiatives The feasibility studies of Lucca and Perugia’s projects featured the development of impact measurement models tailored to the specific characteristics of the interventions and of their contexts. These models have two main objectives: • supporting an appropriate integration and implementation of services based on the monitoring of outputs; • measuring and managing the ability of the intervention model to generate the expected social outcomes for key groups of stakeholders. The two impact measurement and management systems adopt a participatory approach in order to share the objectives and activities of the interventions with partners and target communities. Furthermore, the evaluation design will adopt a theory-based approach [25], which describes the assumptions about why the program should work. Through a Theory of Change (or ToC) each project identified a social problem to be addressed and defined the process of intended social change, by connecting inputs, outputs and outcomes between each other in a causal relation [26] The Theories of Change were developed for the main direct and indirect beneficiaries. The impact measurement model also adopted a set of mixed methods [27] to better comprehend qualitative and quantitative information on the changes in the outcomes lived by the stakeholders. As a summary of each case study ToC, an example list of hard and soft outcomes, their indicators and mixed sources of verification is provided in Annex 1.

2.4 The Payment by Result Models: Make Value Matter Finally, a fundamental piece of the FIS projects is the financial scheme envisioned to ensure their sustainability in the long run. The FIS promotes the experimentation of private–public partnerships among local stakeholders, which display different characteristics, objectives and interests that can converge thanks to a PbR scheme. To estimate the socio-economic impact of the intervention, the measurement model of the two case studies, first, identified the hard cashable outcomes, and then determined the financial and economic value for the outcome payers, based on the savings or revenues generated thanks to the intervention. In PbR models, outcome payers commit at the outset to reimburse investors their capital plus a financial yield, if outcomes are achieved and verified by an external evaluation entity. The definition of the economic-financial benefits of the outcome payer is based on an estimation of historical costs incurred to implement initiatives similar to those envisaged by the innovative intervention model.

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In the case of Lucca, financial proxies were also developed for the soft outcomes, which feature social and intangible qualities. Even if these outcomes are not linked to the PbR model, proxies were identified to attribute a monetary value to these change and to make them comparable. Since these outcomes do not have a market value, the financial proxies were approximated through a specific method of valuation, the theory of revealed preference, which determines the value that stakeholders hold for a social outcome, by observing their purchase of goods or services that relate to the social outcome (cfr. Annex 2).

2.4.1

The PbR Scheme in Lucca

In the case of Lucca, the economic and financial benefits for the outcome payer, i.e. the Municipality of Lucca (Fig. 2), were calculated on the basis of historical expenses incurred by the municipality and other related stakeholders for the funding and management of functions and activities similar to the ones proposed by the Co-Mix project. Some examples of benefits are the savings due to the reduction of direct and indirect costs incurred by the Municipality and other institutions for taking charge of target beneficiaries and for their orientation towards work and social inclusion paths or for providing social welfare subsidies and income support, as a result of the Co-Mix social impact (cfr. Annex 2). Through a forecast analysis different scenarios of average expenditure per beneficiary were reckoned and compared to the historical costs (counterfactual scenario). During the second and third years of intervention, the evaluation will assess the progress against the project targets in terms of outcome achievement and actual costs incurred.

Fig. 2 Stakeholders and model of interactions in Co-Mix’s PbR scheme

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Throughout a venture philanthropy scheme the Foundation Cassa di Risparmio di Lucca will support the intervention model with an amount of resources starting from the second year. From the third/fourth year of intervention onwards, the PbR scheme will also collect loans, besides granting and other financial resources coming from participation in tenders. All these sources will guarantee enough funds to sustain the model of intervention beyond the termination of the FIS.

2.4.2

Perugia’s PbR Scheme

In the case of Perugia (Fig. 3), the partnership identified some financial proxies related one specific hard outcome, i.e., the avoided/delayed institutionalisation of IHP residents, by elaborating the Regional health authority (i.e. USL) data on costs of improper access to the emergency room for a white code and on costs for the daily individual treatment of patients in protected discharge. These proxies were also calibrated according to different scenarios of the change expected to be experienced by the various stakeholder groups, i.e. partial dependent people over 65 and over 65s in post-acute conditions and/or protected discharge. In the first two years of intervention, the FIS grating will be blended with loans whose interest rates are tied to the specific outcome targets. Once the model of intervention will be well defined and implemented, the scale-up will require additional financial resources to become sustainable. Equity and lending crowdfunding instruments will be crucial, not only for collecting additional resources, but also for engaging with the local community and other relevant stakeholders. A full-fledged PbR scheme is envisaged to be established after the termination of the FIS, engaging both large and small investors.

Fig. 3 Stakeholders and model of interactions in intergenerational housing project’s PbR scheme

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3 Conclusions The experience of the FIS, though still under implementation, provides two case studies that shed light on the importance of measuring impact in regeneration urban projects to align investment decisions with environmental and social objectives. Both projects identified relevant outcomes for the different stakeholder groups and designed comprehensive measurement models that in the implementation phase are going to provide precious data for impact management. Indeed, the PbR scheme links the remuneration of the investment to the achievement of social and environmental objectives, encouraging cooperation and convergence among the interests of different stakeholder groups, e.g. outcome payers, investors, social enterprises, beneficiaries. In the phase of consolidation, we expect to have enough evidence for confirming or refuting these assumptions. Within this scheme, the monetization of cashable outcomes represents a first strategy to embed social impact into urban planning as well as financial processes. Such an approach to monetization is more understandable and perceived as more legitimate by both outcome payers and investors, paving the way to more sophisticated approaches to monetization. In the case of Lucca, also non-cashable outcomes were monetized through a set of financial proxies, to elicit the importance of these outcomes in the decision-making process. From these case studies some challenges also emerged. For a full-fledged approach to impact management, during the implementation phase impact risks should be carefully taken into account to minimize negative outcomes for intended beneficiaries and other stakeholders. Especially in urban regeneration projects, a key risk is that measurement models focus only on intended beneficiaries, overlooking negative outcomes for unintended stakeholders and entailing suboptimal decisions. With this regard, the measurement models include the involvement of stakeholders through surveys and open questions, which could expand the assessment scope and facilitate the identification of unintended consequences. Finally, for a more complete management of impact, the two projects could also include environmental factors and metrics in their measurement models. Such an integration would encourage strategic deliberation on how to optimize economic and social value without depleting but raising natural capital. Disclaimer The contents of this paper are the sole responsibility of Human Foundation and do not in any way reflect the position of third parties involved in the projects, public or private. The case studies are based on projects designed in collaboration with: • Co-Mix—Co-generating inclusive mixité in the city: Municipality of Lucca, Lucca Crea, Fondazione Casa Lucca, Fondazione Finanza Etica, Anffas Lucca, Finabita, Caritas Lucca, Politecnico di Milano—Department of Architecture, Construction Engineering and Built Environment in collaboration with REC— Real Estate Center

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• Intergenerational Housing Project: Municipality of Perugia, ABN—Consorzio Abn network Sociale.

Annex 1. Examples of Outcomes, Indicators, and Sources of the Two Case Studies Co-mix (a) Young people with disabilities Hard outcome

Indicators

Sources

Work inclusion

No. of young people with disabilities involved in “work projects”

Monitoring data of the service provider

Housing inclusion

No. of young people with disabilities who find a home in the target areas

Soft outcome

Indicators

Sources

Strengthened social networks

No. of young people with disabilities who strengthen their social networks

Pre-post survey/ observation forms

Increased self-esteem and self-efficacy

No. of young people with disabilities who strengthen their self-esteem and self-efficacy

Ex post interviews

(b) Young NEETs Hard outcome

Indicators

Sources

Social inclusion

No. of NEETs who participate to the projects’ social activities

Housing inclusion

No. of NEETs who found a home in the target areas No. of NEETs who have increased their economic independence

Monitoring data of the service provider

Soft outcome

Indicators

Sources

Increased socio-cultural inclusion for young people of foreign origin

No. of NEETs of foreign origin who claim to strengthen their socio-cultural inclusion

Pre-post survey

Strengthened the skills needed for the labour world

No. of NEETs who claim to strengthen the skills necessary for the labour world

Ex post interviews

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Intergenerational Housing Project (a) Partially dependent people over 65, possibly with dependent disabled children Hard outcome

Indicators

Sources

Avoided/delayed institutionalization

50% decrease in inappropriate access by beneficiaries to the emergency room (white code) Delay of at least 6 months in institutionalizing the beneficiaries in the R.P. and/or in the R.S.A 30% reduction in the length of stay of beneficiaries in public health facilities, if they need to be hospitalized

Monitoring data of the service provider

Soft outcome

Indicators

Sources

Social inclusion/ greater sense of belonging to the community

No. of residents who experience a strengthening in the sense of belonging to the social housing community

Pre-post interviews

(b) People over 65 in post-acute conditions and/or protected discharge Hard outcome

Indicators

Sources

Avoided/delayed institutionalization

50% decrease in inappropriate access by beneficiaries to the emergency room (white code) 30% reduction in the length of stay of beneficiaries in public health facilities

Monitoring data of the service provider

Soft outcome

Indicators

Sources

Perception of a quality environment in which to spend the recovery

No. of residents who perceive to spend the period of recovery in a quality environment

Ex post interviews

(c) People with housing needs: guiltless defaulters, students, young couples Hard outcome

Indicators

Sources

Avoided/delayed institutionalization

50% decrease in inappropriate access by beneficiaries to the emergency room (white code)

Monitoring data of the service provider

Soft outcome

Indicators

Sources

Better intergenerational interaction

No. of residents experiencing improvement in their interactions with the elderly

Pre-post interviews

Hard

Hard

Partially dependent people over 65 People with housing needs

People over 65 in post-acute conditions and/or protected discharge

Intergenerational housing project

Soft

Young NEETs

Outcome type Hard

Stakeholder

Young people with disabilities

Project

Co-mix

Avoided/delayed institutionalization

Avoided/delayed institutionalization

Increased socio-cultural inclusion for young people of foreign origin

Housing inclusion

Outcome description

• Scenario a: USL Umbria 1 commits to finance the cost of treating direct beneficiaries by the IHP Proxy: cost difference in the individual daily treatment of a patient in protected discharge for the USL (approximately e250) and for the IHP (approximately e100). Remuneration of the capital for 33% of the savings generated • Scenario b: non-stipulation of the agreement Proxy: remuneration of the capital for 50% of daily savings per patient (approximately e250)

Reduction of costs for improper access in P.S. (a white code), or about e25.00 per year (fixed individual fee applied in the Umbria region for “white codes” not followed by hospitalization; source: AgeNaS national agency for regional health services)

Cost of a cultural mediator for the planning and development of a cultural and educational project e550

Reduction of cost of the current solutions for the reception of subjects in charge of the municipality (estimated savings of 20% compared to the historical reception cost: from e6.000 to e4.000 euros per year)

Valuation

Annex 2. Examples of Financial Proxies for Outcomes in PbR Schemes of the Two Case Studies

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Creativity, Responsibility and the Social Project Finance in the Revitalization of Abandoned Territories Salvatore Giuffrida, Carmelo Marisca, Maria Rosa Trovato, Cheren Cappello, and Ludovica Nasca

Abstract This study on the relationship between creativity and responsibility in the processes of revitalisation of abandoned territories is part of the debate on the structural drift to which the possible long-term effects of public deficit spending envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan launched by the Italian Government to combat the economic crisis generated by the pandemic. This emergency has frozen the austerity regime and the constraints that the EU has placed since its inception on public spending and welfare, especially by the most indebted countries. Starting from an overall background of the territorial economic and demographic disadvantage, and in the prospect of the ecological transition programme, the paper proposes a Public– Private Partnership approach to the renovation of the depopulated old towns, through a financial tool combining Social Impact Bond features with the financing process at the base of tax credit properties renovation, consistent with the administrative aptitudes of the small-town centres. Keywords Ecological transition · PNRR · NSIA · Territorial disadvantage · Ancient burgs recovery · Social impact project financing

S. Giuffrida (B) · M. R. Trovato Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Catania, Catania, Italy e-mail: [email protected] M. R. Trovato e-mail: [email protected] C. Marisca Department of Economics, University of Messina, Messina, Italy e-mail: [email protected] C. Cappello · L. Nasca Department of Architecture Design and Urban Planning, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_3

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1 Introduction 1.1 Background The model of development that has been definitively affirmed in our country since the Second World War has, even though within a general increase in the level of welfare, further deepened the gap between north and south and between urban areas and territory. The ways of production of wealth have not been properly reflected in the pattern of its allotment so that the issue of the balance between territories has taken a back seat to the concerns addressed instead to the sectors most capable of increasing GDP and employment. The efficiency of manufacturing sectors has ever been supported and improved more than labour despite the latter’s important contribution to GDP growth [20]. In essence, industrial capitalism has developed by generating significant transformations in the distributional variables of added value and manipulating market mechanisms so that these differences are self-sustaining. The increase of the industrial profit was achieved without appropriate compensation: • on the one hand, to labour, which has paid for more stable wages and conditions the loss of specificity and the knowledge of farmers, artisans and carpenters, decorators suddenly conformed to the condition of laborers; in the same way, the skills, competences and aspirations of tradesmen and entrepreneurs have been extinguished in view of a permanent position in private and public companies in the city; • on the other hand, to land, which has undergone two forms of impoverishment due to: the decline in the demand for agricultural products on a national scale; the decline in the availability of workforce due to the massive exodus to the most developed areas, both Italian and foreign, and to the most competitive (or aggressive) sectors, that reflect the affirmation of a metropolitan production model. In addition to these, there are multiple joint effects. The first comes from the transfer of demand and supply. People who move take with them an important share of demand for products, services and housing, and a supply of non-original work capacity, filtered (impoverished therefore) by the needs of new mechanisms of efficient production that dissolve personal skills in the anomie of the assembly line. The second is connected to the opportunities of this transfer in terms of the great added value produced and deposited in the landing areas of the new demand (for goods) and offer (of work capacity). The effects concern the dynamics of profit and rent, which have grown not only in terms of volume but also in terms of distributional variables—profit and rent rates—in contrast to the much smaller growth of wage rates. The increase in profits seeking re-investment opportunities and the progressive emergence of a financial approach (based on diversification) and a monetary approach (based on the real hoarding of the surplus), have definitely boosted the real estate market in terms of both volumes and values [36, 37]. In terms of volumes, on

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the one hand there has been an increase in efficiency due to the income generated by the fraction of very low value properties rented out at unhoped-for rents to the poorest immigrants, and on the other hand there has been a stimulation of the construction sector in support of the real estate sector, in order to adjust the property supply to a structurally unsatisfied demand [21, 22]. From the point of view of values, the multiplying of the preference profiles due to the wide range of families looking for housing, the articulated location model and the transformation of cities into metropolises, has strongly segmented the real estate market and differentiated the property supply thus increasing the efficiency and profitability of the real estate market. It is superfluous to retrace what happened symmetrically in the vast and already weak abandoned areas. The concern about the level of territorial disadvantage, especially in southern Italy, makes the acceptance of competition between territories supported as a successful development model for the increase of material well-being, anachronistic. This model, in fact, has not considered that the costs of mobility and abandonment [10, 23, 35] have accumulated in some areas of the country and in some parts of the territory of the different regions as stocks of poverty that in turn provide and capitalize further flows of poverty. In other words, it has not been considered that territory is not an extension of land, but a system of stratified and consolidated values that make it a common good, of primary public and social value, and within which different economic functions [33] coordinate to produce surplus of social product that accumulates in the form of industrial, infrastructural, cultural, social and human capital [39]. The degree of well-being and development of a community is measured by both the magnitude and harmony of these dimensions of capital, and above all by the way in which investments in lower elasticity capital support those in higher elasticity capital, i.e. the more durable ones. The territorial imbalance or disadvantage consists, in essence, in this structural inability to sustain a long-term vision due to both the lack of ‘transformation capital’ and the inadequacy of the tax system to support the development of the “capital of social inclusion”. The “geography of disadvantage” has been represented on different levels [32] and in different forms [19] in particular with regard to the possibility of assuming the “geographical debt” as a shared measure to motivate rebalancing policies and measures for the reduction of territorial disadvantage.

1.2 Contents and Aims The economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic is now the test case for the actual awareness of the nature and extent of this disadvantage, and how it should be addressed. The loosening of the purse strings by the monetary authorities, which in Europe have supported the countries most affected by the pandemic, and the

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allocation of Recovery Fund measures in Italy (now merged into the PNRR) to the building and environmental sector, among others, is an unmissable opportunity to capitalize on the “love credit” of abandoned territories towards the economicterritorial attractors, and which precisely during this fluctuation have reached the highest rates of criticality. This is an opportunity to rethink the concept of development, towards a different territorial wealth allocation model aimed at re-stitching the fractures between areas that are too strong and areas that are too weak. This issue involves the disciplines that are more markedly oriented towards the territory from the point of view of the contents and aims of the appraisal and economic valuation. This point of view and these aims, which establish a basic vision, a complex of methodologies and instruments, and a mission—the issue of distributive justice—are consolidated and specified in the operational area in which the formulation of the value judgment assume as a specific target the economic category of rent [18]. As a consequence, the evaluation in general, and the “project estimation” in particular, reveal (i.e. “measure”) the ways of the allocation of territorial wealth in the forms of the territory and cities, in their inertia as in their fragility, in the prospect of a reform of the “home-city-landscape system” [38] argued by means of the interaction between evaluation and project (ib.). In the economic-estimative discourse, landscape should be interpreted as the space of values of settled communities. The values are not related to the physicality of space, but rather to the “circle of possibilities” of “looking around” (in space), to the “waiting for the event”, in time. If in a substantive sense we mean by value “urgency and salience”—in essence, what really matters—the identification of the different layers of landscape corresponds to the multiple dimensions of the value space. Accordingly: • • • • • •

the natural landscape refers to the complexity of ecosystems; the anthropic landscape to the originality of knowledge; the agricultural landscape to the interweaving of cultural mosaics; the urban landscape to the forms of common living; the industrial landscape to the territorial relationships between districts; the economic landscape to the organization of the ways of wealth creation and extraction; • the human landscape to the dignity of existence in the living/relational space. The concept of landscape, as the highest consciousness of common living, implies in essence the constitutive action of the subject: if the landscape is the space of values, consequently the pandemic landscape refers to reciprocity, empathy, care and ultimately to the complementarity between creativity and responsibility. Such a hoped synergy of constraints and opportunities identifies in the digital extension of territory aspects as miraculous as dangerous, claiming an additional effort in true valuation of authentic values [18], that is the scientific basis supporting creative transformation/conservation processes.

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According to the hypothesis that social system emerges as a communicative subject delimiting territory as a relational area, the “pandemic landscape” can be identified as the most radical (extensive and pervasive) territory of the social system, coping today with a type of environmental irritation, which, although already known, generates a new subject, typically political, called to reorganize territory reforming the dialectic between state and market, that is between community and individual. The pandemic has projected the entire nation into the near blue/green future by glimpsing a reform of labour and of living space integrating metropolitan lifestyles into a countryside dotted by hyperconnected micro-urban aggregations characterized by a bundle of natural, anthropological, and cultural values. The deepening of these aspects and these relationships constitutes the framework within which the question of repopulation of the internal areas arises. Among the generalized means of communication with a high symbolic level that have re-ordered the system of preferences in this pandemic, two converging and complementary ones have dominated the rhetoric of sustainability: digitalisation and rediscovery of the burgs in the prospect of a sort of “regional globalisation” [34]. The injection of liquidity that the Italian Government has promised to revive strategic sectors such as the building and real estate ones, should be now interpreted in the view of rebalancing territory starting from the positive impacts that coordinated intervention of attraction of funding related to the extraordinary subsides in force (“Superbonus”) can generate. Against the backdrop of these considerations—which link aspects of individual creativity with those of social responsibility, of the renewed relationship between the state and the market, of safety and quality of life, of well-being and inclusion, of wealth creation and allotment, of economic science and the practice of evaluation, of creativity and responsibility—the best-practice of Social Impact Investing is introduced, as an approach to project and planning envisaging the collective positive effects of the individual advantage in terms of subsidies for building renovation in the many villages dotted around Italy. This study proposes a Public–Private Partnership approach to the reappropriation of the abandoned old towns, which makes use of a hybrid financial tool combining Social Impact Bond features with the financing process at the base of tax credit properties renovation, consistent with the urban dimension and administrative aptitudes of the small-town centers. Such an approach outlines the concrete prospects of spillover effects supporting the social capital asset development in terms both of increase in location demand, and of quality of life also due the new smart infrastructures the agreement implies.

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2 Materials 2.1 Abandonment as a Structural Trend The analysis of the historical trends of the internal migratory stocks shows how abandonment is a structural phenomenon for the South, affecting the country differently, in time and space. The whole population transfer calculated from 1945 to 2014 (Fig. 1) shows the tragic supremacy of Campania, followed by Sicily and Calabria, with a progressive attenuation if we shorten the period towards the present (Fig. 2); the observations show that among the arrival regions, in the last forty years, Piedmont has lost appeal to the advantage of Emilia Romagna, which, even if only slightly, takes the absolute supremacy from Lombardy in this period.

Fig. 1 Mappings of the net migration flows in Italy from 1945 to 2014 and from 1960 to 2014

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Fig. 2 Mappings of the net migration flows in Italy from 1980 to 2014 and from 2000 to 2014

Age is one of the factors that most influences migration behaviour: transfers of residence during working age are generally more numerous than those recorded for other age groups. In 2018, almost half of those who moved from one municipality to another within the country were aged between 15 and 40. A significant fraction of moves (27%) are also observed in the 41–64 age group. The proportion of younger people (0–14 years old) is just over 15% and is due to household moves; the over-65s, on the other hand, move in only 8% of cases. Young adults, often together with young children, thus make up the largest proportion of those who move. Moves in these age groups may be motivated by further education, work, or family needs. The age factor affects migration dynamics. The migratory balances calculated in the age groups 18–24 and 65 and over show the greater attractiveness of the regions of Central and Northern Italy for young migrants, while the regions of Southern Italy present very limited

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Campania

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Fig. 3 Net migration flows 18–24 years old and over 65, by region

migratory balances for older migrants and in some cases positive ones, as in Abruzzo and Sardinia (Fig. 3).

2.2 Disadvantaged Territory in Sicily The possibilities connected with the use of public financing instruments for the real estate economy, and specifically the reference to environmental performance— energy and safety—and especially the use of non-repayable financing that even exceeds the cost of the building itself, cannot but be aimed at solving a socio-territorial problem of such proportions as to have destroyed the real estate value of huge urban and landscape heritages of absolute beauty. In Sicily, the heritage of small centres is as remarkable as its loss of value. The National Strategy for Inland Areas (NSAI) [1] is an innovative national policy for development and territorial cohesion which aims to counteract the marginalisation and demographic decline of the inland areas of our country. Of the 390 Sicilian municipalities, 291 are identified as internal areas, while their classification indicates the presence of 14 poles, including municipal and intermunicipal and, at the other extreme, a total of 170 municipalities, including peripheral and ultra-peripheral, according to accessibility [15]. The locational panorama confirms the tendency of the population to cluster along the coastal areas, and its progressive rarefaction in the mountainous interior. 207 are the small municipalities and 150 have a population between 5 and 30 thousand inhabitants. 33 municipalities have more than 30 thousand inhabitants; among these, Palermo, Catania, Messina and Syracuse exceed 100 thousand and are the main attractors of the anthropic resources of the Sicilian territory, known for having been in its history, “land of cities”. The population dynamics are represented based on the ten-year rates of variation by the amplitude of the bubbles: positive rates if full, negative rates if empty.

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Fig. 4 a Identification of internal areas; b Sicilian municipalities classification

The analysis is based on the ISTAT censuses from 1951 to 2018 [24–27]. In the post-war period the most attractive areas were the industrial poles in the map in Fig. 4 the Petrochemical Pole of Siracusa-Priolo is evident, between 1961 and 1971, instead, the role of attractor played by the industrial area of Catania is clear (Figs. 5 and 6). From the 1980s, the industrial areas of Milazzo and Termini Imerese (led by two other petrochemical poles) also took off. Between the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s, the coastal areas became a destination for resettlement. Surprising, however, is the very low or even slightly negative rate of Messina, despite its position and important role as a port city, as well as, and on the contrary, with a very significant boom in the last twenty years, the islands belonging to the three archipelagos (Aeolian, Egadi and Pelagie Islands), as we can see, and some coastal resorts, which supports the hypothesis of a shift in the pattern of housing preferences in a qualitative sense and no longer just occupational. The graph relating to the last decade shows, with the empty bubbles, the dramatic emptying of the many centres in the inland areas. The last graph summarises the percentage variation of the population, underlining the remarkable growth of the city of Catania, from the economic point of view the most dynamic reality of the region. The relationship between the condition of territorial marginality, personal wealth, and the demographic size of the municipalities, can be represented both by comparing the two maps and by considering the demographic dynamics described above. The bubble graph hints at an inverse relationship between inaccessibility and income; the width of the bubble measures the size of the population, showing a general tendency for smaller municipalities to stratify in the lower part of the graph. Among the many variables that make it possible to describe the condition of the municipalities included among the internal areas, vulnerability as described by

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Fig. 5 Residents percentage variation in Sicily 1951–1991

ISTAT in the 8000 Census section should be taken into consideration. This section provides nine indices of vulnerability among the 99 with which it describes the state of the national social capital at different scales of detail, regional, provincial and municipal. The level of vulnerability is measured by “The social and material vulnerability index [which] is an indicator constructed with the aim of providing a synthetic measure of the level of social and material vulnerability of Italian municipalities”. It is a tool capable of expressing with a single value the different aspects of a multidimensional phenomenon, and which, because it is easy to read, facilitates territorial and temporal comparisons. The index is constructed through the combination of seven elementary indicators that describe the main “material” and “social” dimensions of vulnerability”. The planning perspective of this study and the equitable motivation of the estimation discipline take this first representation as the “starting line” of a path which, as obvious, goes far beyond the limits of this study, but which refers to a concrete datum, i.e. the identification of the main areas of criticality, its entire development. Social and material vulnerability is commonly meant as the exposure of people to situations of risk, as uncertainty about their social and economic condition. The index values therefore measure different degrees of exposure of the population to conditions of vulnerability [9, 11, 13, 16] that do not necessarily translate into an actual situation of material and social distress. The main dimensions that have

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Fig. 6 Residents percentage variation in Sicily 1991–2018 and 1951–2018

been considered, based on the factors that are most likely to determine a condition of vulnerability, are the following: level of education, family structures, housing conditions, participation in the labour market and economic conditions.

3 Methodological Issues 3.1 Innovative Funding Approaches for Repopulation of Villages Through Buildings Renovation and Digital Transformation The last decade saw the rise of an innovative tool in public service finance, related to Public Private Partnerships (PPPs)—partnerships already widely adopted in different sectors [6, 8]. This tool, defined as Social Impact Bond (SIB; [12]), links contracts and collaborative dynamics to prefixed outcomes, favoring private investments in public interventions that have a positive payoff [40]. It can be considered as a multilateral contract, focused on outcomes, based on payment by results mechanisms (PBR). In its typical scheme, investors finance in advance the public intervention, such as social services, and are paid back, including a yield on investment, only if

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expected social outcomes are achieved. Intermediaries and financial institutions are involved to convey investors, facilitating the collection of funds through the issue of specific bonds. Over a period between two to five years, social services are delivered by specialized providers. The scheme includes also one or more independent evaluators, responsible to verify the achievement levels of social outcomes, according to predetermined impact evaluation methods [2, 28, 29]. As PPPs, SIBs were developed to bridge the lack of resources of public actors, mobilising additional financial resources from the private sector. By introducing payment by results mechanisms, typical of market logic, SIBs can be expected to attract more private investors, contributing towards solving social challenges. SIBs are commonly adopted for the prevention or reduction of social issues and are financed from the savings generated by improving social outcomes. SIBs were used, in particular: to reduce recidivism in the UK Peterborough prison [12], for youth offender rehabilitation of New York City; in preschool education; for migrants and refugees’ integration; for child protection and parent education; to combat poverty and marginalization of women affected by violence; for social housing [12, 14, 28, 29, 31]. Nevertheless, researchers and practitioners neglected the adoption of SIBs for different social instances, also in combination with other tools. In this sense, SIBs can represent a powerful instrument also for more articulated social aspects and, in addition, if rationally structured and implemented, could be able to generate additional sources for public entities, generating a self-financing of the public interventions. In particular, as outlined in previous paragraphs, with the Covid-19 pandemic, the issue of the depopulation of ancient villages has generated an increasing attention from local public authorities and researchers. The renewed human needs scale, generated by the Covid pandemic, can represent an opportunity for Italian local governments to start renewal processes, based on smart technologies, to repopulate ancient village, attracting people. In this scenario, the lack of resources to finance public interventions could be bridged by the recourse to SIBs, combined with tools introduced in Italy to cope with Covid-19 pandemic and, in particular, with the new tax credit for property renovation, called “Super bonus 110%”, synthetically described in the next paragraph. Hence, this combination can permit to renew private buildings that, frequently, are abandoned and in ruinous conditions and, at the same, to finance the digital transformation of the village, creating optimal conditions for repopulation. With respect to digital transformation, in the last years, people—and the society most in general—experienced a before unknown process of change, mainly based on the development and the introduction of new technologies, supporting many aspects of the life. As a consequence, the new and heightened socio-technical interactions among people, oblige city governments to response to the change developing strategies that rely on information and communication technologies (ICT), in different and innovative ways. To this end, local governments adopted new technologies to enhance citizen participation, to implement public policies or to provide innovative and traditional public services [17].

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According to this perspective, where technologies play a fundamental role in the new conception of smart cities [3], is possible to identify two different, but correlated, trends: (a) the increased use of social and environmental capital [19]; (b) ICT as key distinctive feature of competitiveness among cities [30]. For this reasons, local governments have to create interactive, participatory and information-based urban environments, generating higher outcomes in terms of wealth and public value to attract (and to retain) people [4, 5, 7, 30]. This issue becomes more relevant for villages that, as outlined in previous paragraphs, have to compete with big agglomerations for the survivance of their story. Hence, in this new scenario, only villages that become “smart” can safeguard their tradition and existence.

3.2 The New Italian Tax Credit for Properties Renovation With the aim to relaunch the economy, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Italian government introduced a tax credit linked to properties renovation, based on energy requalification and/or seismic retrofitting. The tax credit, equal to the 110% of the total amount of costs incurred for properties renovation, can be traded with suppliers of goods and services, or with financial institutions. In this way, trading the tax credit with third parties, it is possible to renew properties without any cash outflows, at zero costs. More specifically, it is necessary to make a distinction between those improvements necessary to obtain the tax credit (leading interventions), and those for which the tax credit is recognized only if carried out in conjunction with the leading ones (pulled interventions). According to the legislation, leading interventions are: the external insulation coating on a surface of (at least) 25% of the building; the renovation of the heating system with a heat pump; the seismic retrofitting of the building. To ensure the safety of the entire building, works cannot be limited to a single unit. The legislation considers, instead, as pulled interventions: the installation of solar panels; the installation of electric columns, for the charge of electric vehicles; the replacement of fixtures. The tax credit is recognized for properties functionally independent and with one or more independent accesses (such as townhouses), individual residential units and common parts of residential buildings (condominiums). The maximum amount of expenditures admitted to the tax credit is: • for external insulation, Euro 50,000 for detached houses and individual houses within a residential area; Euro 40,000 per unit, for condominiums with 2–8 units; Euro 30,000 per unit, for condominiums with more than 8 units; • for heating, Euro 30,000/20,000/15,000 according to the type of house or the condominium dimension; • for solar panels, Euro 48,000 or Euro 2,400 per kW for each single unit; • for seismic retrofitting, Euro 96,000 per unit.

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The tax credit is recognized to the owner or to the tenant that effectively incur in expenses, and is repaid by the Italian government in 4/5 years. As illustrated in the subsequent paragraph, combined with a SIB, the tax credit can represent a disruptive opportunity to retrain and to renovate villages, in the smart perspective above outlined.

4 Application: A Hybrid Social Impact Bond (HSIB) for Village Digital Transformation With all the above in mind, it is here proposed a hybrid tool (called Hybrid Social Impact Bond) that combines SIBs features with the financing process at the base of tax credit properties renovation (Fig. 7). The idea is to attract financial resources from the private sector combining a high-risk investment, typical of SIBs, with a low risk investment supported, in terms of cash flows, by the tax credit monetization. More in particular, the hybrid tool is structured as a dual financing intervention. The first one (Fig. 7; red streams) at a lower risk, consists in financing the buildings renovation (leading and pulled interventions) benefiting of tax credit. For this a.

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investment, the remuneration is linked to the contribution of owners/tenants in sustain expenditures. Without any contribution by owners/tenants, the supposed remuneration is a basic yield of 10% over 4/5 years, achieved through the tax credit monetization. If, instead, part of the renovation costs is sustained by owners/tenants the yield could increase; supposing, for instance, a 20% of expenditures contribution, the basic yield will be 30% in 4/5 years. The second one, instead, is a pure risk investment, typical of SIBs, based on the digital transformation of the village (Fig. 7; blue streams). With reference to the first, a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) is created to support the operation. The SPV finances itself on the market. Intermediaries and financial institutions are involved to convey investors, facilitating the collection of funds through the issue of specific bonds. At the same time, the buildings renovation starts. These interventions, carried out by companies connected to the General Contractor (GC), are compensated by owners/tenants trading the tax credit generated by the renovation (Fig. 7; n.1 red). Companies, in turn, negotiate with the SPV the tax credit received from owners/tenants. Then, the SPV pays for buildings interventions on a work progress base (Fig. 7; n.2 red). Tax credit is repaid in 4/5 years by the central government to the SPV. In this way, the SPV can reimburse bonds and pay the basic yield. With regard to the second, investors finance the SPV with the sources necessary to carry out the smart and technological transformation to repopulate/reactivate the village. The SPV finances itself on the market, as in the previous case, but with a different kind of bonds. The SPV manages financial flows (financing and investing), monitoring and controlling activities performed by the (GC), and the achievement of results (Fig. 7; n.1 blue). These interventions for digital transformation, elaborated together by the Local Authority (LA) and the GC, are carried out by specialized companies under the control of GC (Fig. 7; n.2 blue). Once the interventions have been carried out, the SPV will pay the amount due to the GC for its services, hence the latter will pay specialized companies (Fig. 7; n.3 blue). The effects of digital transformation, in terms of outcomes achieved, represent a benefit for both the LA and the community. An independent external evaluator will assess whether the interventions carried out have generated the results agreed between the LA, the GC and the Investors (Fig. 7; n.4 blue). If the evaluation is positive, the LA will allocate part of the increased revenues (in terms of taxes, rates, charges, fees, etc.) deriving from the building renovations and the repopulation of the village, in the following years, to the reimbursement and the payment of the impact yield to Investors, through the SPV. In the event of a negative assessment by the Independent Evaluators, LA has not any obligation to reimburse the investment and to pay the Impact Yield (Fig. 8). According to the interests of parties involved, intermediate scenarios can be also considered in structuring contracts, associating graduated results to achieve with different yields.

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Ranking of municipalities

97.881 105.005 34

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Incidence of families in assistance disadvantage

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Fig. 8 Social and material vulnerability index mapping

In the scheme proposed, leading and coordinating widespread building renovations, the LA can benefit of significant financial resources represented by infrastructure and planning taxes, occupancy taxes, and other fees collected in relation to buildings renovation (Fig. 7; n.5 blue). Resources that can be destinated to finance digital transformation of villages (Figs. 9 and 10).

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Fig. 9 Hybrid social impact bond (HSIB) with positive evaluation

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Fig. 10 Hybrid social impact bond (HSIB) with negative evaluation

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5 Conclusions The geography of abandonment describes a tragic phenomenon, also because it is tragically accepted as a price for economic well-being, also unfair as it is not equally distributed both between components of the social system and between the social system and the environment. The complexity of the phenomena that have alternated in the course of the development of manufacturing capitalism does not allow the univocal identification and delimitation of causes and effects, intentionality and responsibility of the territorial disadvantage; on the other hand, the territory as a whole takes on the character of a “common good” due to the global effects of the impoverishment of areas which themselves become producers of poverty. The fiscal measures and financial instruments launched to counter the economic crisis generated by the pandemic are typical measures of reactive policies, almost completely ineffective where the degree of irreversibility of underdevelopment makes them superfluous and, in some cases, even further harmful. The system of incentives, distributed indiscriminately and in the absence of any filter aimed at re-establishing conditions of meritorious access to them and which, indeed, reward “those who already have” have raised certain questions as to efficiency and fairness and stimulate reflections on the need to coordinate project financing actions to encourage convergence towards collective objectives by loans disbursed to individual subjects and in the absence of any recognition of the merit of this incentive. As above described, the combination of SIB features with financing process at the base of tax credit can represent a disruptive solution for the repopulation of villages. Taking advantage of central government financing for buildings renovation, through a spillover effect, Local Municipalities can drive resources, financing also the digital transformation in smart villages. Nevertheless, the recourse to this kind of hybrid social impact bond (HSIB) poses some issues for further exploration. The tool is complex and articulated, with the intervention of many and heterogenous players. This determines the need of multidisciplinary competencies in all phases, to mediate interests and to coordinate actions of all parties. A multidisciplinary approach is fundamental for structuring the tool, and for its implementation. As known, one of the main factors that has limited the diffusion of project finance was the lack of competencies in public administration, that can hinder also the HSIB.

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An Evaluation Tool of Public–Private Conveniences in the Definition of Urban Planning Variants Pierluigi Morano, Francesco Tajani, and Debora Anelli

Abstract The economic convenience of urban transformation interventions carried out as derogation of existing urban planning instruments is subject to the determination of the “higher value” generated by the urban planning variant. Aim of the work consists in the development and testing of a procedural protocol for supporting the municipal administrations for the “higher value” assessment, according with the provisions of the Italian D.P.R. no. 380/2001, art. 16, paragraph 4, letter d-ter). The protocol’s effectiveness is tested through an application to a case study located in the city of Taranto (Italy). The research intends to provide a tool that integrates the assessment methodology with the normative regulations provided by the national and regional legislator. The results obtained highlight the efficiency and usefulness of the proposed protocol of evaluation. Keywords Extraordinary urbanization contribution · Public–private partnership · Financial feasibility analysis · Urban planning variant · Transformation value

The work must be attributed in equal parts to the authors. P. Morano · D. Anelli (B) Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Building Engineering and Chemistry, Polytechnic University of Bari, Via Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, Italy e-mail: [email protected] P. Morano e-mail: [email protected] F. Tajani Department of Architecture and Design, Sapienza University of Rome, Via Flamina 359, 00196 Rome, Italy e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_4

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1 Introduction and Aim of the Work The issue of urban rent is still very topical. At the international level there are numerous negotiation schemes between public and private subjects to assess, for public purposes, the capital gains that are generated by urban transformation interventions—the so-called value recapture—and to share these capital gains equally between administrations and real estate developers—the so-called value sharing—through regulations and negotiation agreements [1–6]. In Italy, the result of recent sectorial policies has led to the introduction and development of new negotiation tools, based on a taxation mechanism and reuse of resources in the context of urban transformation and development [7–15]. In particular, the establishment of the “extraordinary urbanization contribution”—which has been introduced in 2014 by the D.P.R. no. 380/2001, art. 16, paragraph 4, letter dter)—determines the minimum and mandatory share of the surplus value generated by the urban planning interventions, carried out by private developers, which must be paid to the municipal administration. This share is equal to 50% of the surplus value. At the regional level, the regulatory framework is miscellaneous. Only two regions out of twenty (Piedmont and Puglia) have fully applied the dictates of the state law. Some regions, albeit in the absence of specific legislation on the matter, provide for a “generic” contribution intended for the construction of public workings, also providing for a monetization form as a contribution for the lack of urban planning standards. This is the case of Umbria with art. 35 of the Regional Law no. 1/2015, of Abruzzo with the Regional Law no. 40/2017, of Lazio with the Regional Laws no. 21/2009 and no.7/2017, of Marche with the D.G.R. no. 1156/2012. The EmiliaRomagna region, with the Regional Law no. 24/2017, contradicted its previous circular of 2014, which was initially favorable, stating that the extraordinary urbanization contribution set forth by the Presidential Decree no. 380/2011 should not be applied within the urbanized territory. The Veneto and Lombardy regions opposed the extraordinary urbanization contribution, up to challenge before the Supreme Court, with a negative result, a decision (no. 68 of year 2016), instead in favor of the extraordinary urbanization contribution. The Tuscany region has delegated (art.184, paragraph 5-bis of the Regional Law no. 65/2014) the definition of the methods for applying the extraordinary urbanization contribution to the approval of a specific resolution of the Regional Council, which to date has not been yet enacted [16]. By examining the regulations of the regions that have applied the state provisions, differences are found regarding (i) the methodology for determining the “higher value”—indeed the Highest and Best Use defined by the International Valuation Standards (IVS), that is the use of an asset that maximizes its potential and that is possible, legally permissible and financially feasible [15]—of the urban planning variant and (ii) the likely inclusion of incentives and disincentives for achievement of public and general interest goals. Therefore, from the framework outlined an uneven reception of state legislation emerges, in which the significant weakness is linked to the lack of a univocal methodology—set by the legislator—that can be easily implemented by the Public

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Administration (PA) for determining the surplus value generated by the intervention subject to an urban planning variant. In this view, the aim of the work is to define a procedural protocol, divided into phases, and also consistent with the prodromes of the assessment methodology, which can be able to support municipal technicians in determining the surplus value pursuant to the D.P.R. no.380/2001, art.16, paragraph 4, letter d-ter) and subsequent amendments. In order to test its efficiency, the defined protocol is implemented to a case study, relating to a remodeling and variant intervention on a plot located in the city of Taranto (Italy). The research is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the case study and the hypotheses of intervention A and B, respectively before variant and variant, that are compared. Section 3 illustrates the protocol and the associated assessment methodology. In Sects. 4 and 5 the financial returns of the intervention hypotheses A and B are determined. In Sect. 6 the advantages that are generated by the variant and the extent of the “higher value” acquired by the PA are evaluated. Finally, Sect. 7 outlines the conclusions of the work and the future developments.

2 Case Study of the Proposed Protocol The case study concerns an area located in the south of the city of Taranto (Italy), in a peripheral area mainly dealt for agricultural use, which is part of a larger compendium affected by an Integrated Renovation Program (IRP). The functions forecasted for the area by the IRP are tourist-hotel facilities, subsidized residential units and shops (Fig. 1). The accessibility of the area is worthy, whereas it is poor of quantity and quality of public services. The subjects involved are two: the private developer, that has the role of implementing the initiative; the PA, which represents the interests of the community. The remodeling and variant intervention, in synthesis, provides: (a) the freely transfer to the PA by the private developer of 2,500 m3 , equal to 10% of the volumes allowed in the intervention area, to be allocated to the construction of a nursery school; (b) the change in the intended use of the volumes (22,500 m3 ) of the tourist-hotel structure that can be built in the area of intervention, partially with subsidized residential units (18,806 m3 ), to be sold with controlled prices, and partially to commercial premises (3,694 m3 ) to be sold at market rates; (c) the construction, by the private developer, of a nursery school and pertinence spaces on the free plot near to the intervention area; (d) the freely transfer to the PA of the nursery school and pertinence spaces. The urban planning indices set by the IRP for the considered area can be summarized as follows (Table 1).

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Fig. 1 Intervention area perimeter and functions provided by the urban planning variant

Table 1 Urban planning parameters established by the IRP on the intervention area

Urban planning parameters

Quantity

Plot area Soil intensity index

5,829 m2 4.29 m3 /m2

Coverage index

0.28 m2 /m2

Maximum achievable height

24.80 m

Total achievable volume

25,000 m3

2.1 Hypothesis A: Construction of Tourist-Hotel Facilities The original intervention, hereinafter hypothesis A, involves the construction on the plot of a tourist-hotel building, with contiguous external accommodations, to be rented at market rates. The 8-floors building is designed with a reinforced concrete bearing structure and infill walls made by civil finishes with a total height of 24.80 m and a total volume of 24,573.98 m3 . The pertinence space will be used for parking (2,477.29 m2 ) and partially (917.59 m2 ) for greenery and sidewalks. In the residual portion of the pertinence space, two swimming pools and a paved terrace will be usable by guests.

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2.2 Hypothesis B: Construction of Subsidized Residential Units and Shops The hypothesis B identifies the urban planning variant under evaluation: it involves the construction on the intervention area of a building intended for subsidized residential units and shops. As for hypothesis A, the construction of a reinforced concrete bearing structure and infill walls made by civil finishes will be developed on 8 floors, for a total height of 24.80 m and a total volume of 22,500 m3 . On the ground floor, in addition to the stairwell and the technical areas, there will be four commercial premises with a gross surface area of 934 m2 , for a total volume of 3,694 m3 . The upper floors will be used for apartments-residences, with the same quantities and typologies to those provided for hypothesis A, for a total of 18,806.34 m3 and 5,550 m2 of Overall Surface (OS). The pertinence space will be arranged for 2,250 m2 of parking and 1,947 m2 of greenery and sidewalks.

3 Methodological Aspects for the Surplus Value Assessment in the Proposed Protocol The art. 16, paragraph 4, letter d-ter) of the D.P.R. no. 380/2001 and subsequent amendments provides that: “The incidence of primary and secondary urbanization costs is established by resolution of the municipal council based on the parametric tables that the region defines by classes of municipalities in relation […] of the higher value generated by interventions on areas or buildings defined by urban planning variants. This higher value, calculated by the municipal administration, is shared not less than 50% - between the municipality and the private subject and it is paid by the latter to the municipality in the form of an extraordinary urbanization contribution, which certifies the public interest, in financial payment, linked to the cost for the construction of public workings and services to be carried out in the intervention context, the sale of areas or buildings to be used for public utility services, social housing or public workings”. According to the law, therefore, when an urban planning variant is provided on an area, determining the transition from an initial intervention solution to a new one, it is necessary to investigate whether this variation generates a financial benefit. The “higher value” can be assessed as the difference between the financial convenience of the hypothesis connected to the urban planning variant (hypothesis B) and that relating to the original one (hypothesis A). For urban transformation projects, the financial convenience can be determined through the transformation value (Vt) and therefore subtracting the costs occurred in the transformations (Vkt) from the market value of the realized buildings and/or services (Vmt). In symbols: Vt = Vmt − Vkt. The transformation costs include: the purchase price of the plot, the primary and secondary urbanization fees, the construction costs of buildings, the technical and

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general expenses, the interest expense on borrowed capital. The developer’s profit will be included in the value of the area. In this case, the greater value generated by the urban planning variant on the plot considered can be determined by adopting the following procedural protocol: Phase 1 Analysis of the urban environment surrounding the area and description of the original intervention solution (hypothesis A), and of the intervention solution related to the urban planning variant (hypothesis B); Phase 2 Determination of the financial convenience of hypothesis A through the assessment of the transformation value (Vt A ); Phase 3 Determination of the financial convenience of hypothesis B through the assessment of the transformation value (Vt B ); Phase 4 Assessment of any “higher value” generated by the urban planning variant (ΔBA = Vt B – Vt A ) through the difference in the amounts of the previously obtained transformation values; Phase 5 Assessment of the construction cost of the nursery school (C school ) on the area contiguous to the intervention one, in order to verify that this cost is at least 50% of the “higher value” assessed (C school ≥ ΔBA /2). It should be emphasized that in the analysis only the amounts of the balance sheet items of the initiative that determine an actual change, i.e. introduced by the urban planning variant, should be considered with respect to the original solution. Therefore—for example—the amounts incurred for the purchase of the plot or for the construction of primary urbanization workings are not to be considered, as these amounts are intended to affect the same extent in both intervention hypotheses under evaluation. Furthermore, it should be noted that the assessment carried out recalls the judgments of economic convenience, the outcome of which is specifically valid. Therefore, the prices and the times of sale, the types of buildings, the duration of the workings and the other elements that occur in the evaluation are calibrated on the technical–economic characteristics and on the expectations of the private developer. The assessment refers to the values, parameters and conditions of the local real estate market on the first quarter of 2019.

4 The Convenience of Hypothesis A The transformation value (Vt A ) of hypothesis A relating to the construction of touristhotel facilities, is calculated by subtracting the costs of the transformation (Vkt A ) from the market value of the property after transformation (Vmt A ). It is assumed that the private developer is responsible for the construction and management of the buildings that will be realized. The market value of the transformed asset can be indirectly determined with the income approach. With this method, the market value of an asset capable of producing an income is given by the initial accumulation, at an appropriate capitalization rate (r), of the annual, constant, deferred and unlimited income (R) that the asset can produce

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during its economic life. In symbols: Vmt A = R/r. The potential revenues that can be generated by the accommodation rates can be quantified taking into account (i) the trend of the tourism-accommodation sector of the city of Taranto in 2019, (ii) the characteristics of the properties to be built, (iii) the conditions of the tourism market of the area. The data of the accommodation sector, obtained by processing the information data published by Italian Hotel Monitor (source: www.trademark italia.com) are illustrated in Figs. 2 and 3. In particular, Fig. 2 reports the monthly occupancy rates of the rooms in 2019, whereas Fig. 3 summarizes the changes in monthly employment rates recorded in 2019 compared to the previous year. The graph in Fig. 2 shows that, for all months, an employment rate of approximately 50% was recorded, except for the month of January (48.7%). The most intense months were September (65.3%) and October (58%), followed by August (57.7%) and June (57.1%). The graph in Fig. 3 shows a slight increase in monthly employment rates in 2019 compared to the previous year: in particular, the months of August (+ 3.7%), 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

19 m ar -1 9 ap r-1 9 m ag -1 9 giu -1 9 lu g19 ag o19 se t-1 9 ot t-1 9 no v -1 9 di c-1 9

fe b-

ge n1

9

0%

Fig. 2 Monthly occupancy rates for Taranto accommodation facilities in 2019

4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1%

19 m ar -1 9 ap r-1 9 m ag -1 9 giu -1 9 lu g19 ag o19 se t-1 9 ot t-1 9 no v19 di c-1 9

fe b-

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-1

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Fig. 3 Change in the monthly occupancy rate in 2019 compared to the previous year for hotels in Taranto

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Room occupancy (RO) rate %

RO variation (2018)

Rate (4 stars accomodation)

City

Room occupancy (RO) rate %

RO variation (2018)

Rate (4 stars accomodation)

Fig. 4 Average room occupancy rate and daily rates recorded in the main Italian cities in 2019 (source www.trademarkitalia.com)

February (+ 3.2%), April (+ 3.1%) and March (+ 2.9%). On the other hand, there was a contraction in employment rates in the months of October (− 0.7%) and November (− 1.1%). The upper limit of the average annual employment rate considered for the purposes of the assessment is 54.9%, recorded for Taranto in 2019 (Fig. 4). The daily rates and occupancy rates were differentiated for low and high season, according to the statistics outlined in Figs. 2 and 3. The annual revenues from the accommodation business under analysis can be assessed with the prices detected in the same area for similar and competing facilities. Specifically, the determination of the daily rates per apartment is obtained by weighing the prices detected by three competitors operating in the area (source: www. hundredrooms.it). Figure 5 shows the asset to be assessed (green one) and the three competitors (red ones). The main features of the competitors are the following: • Competitor 1—“Bed and Milk”: recently refurbished accommodation facility with air-conditioned rooms that have a terrace, dining area, stove, coffee machine, kitchen equipped with fridge and oven, and living area with flat-screen TV. The average area of the apartments is 130 m2 . The average rate in the low season is 73 e, whereas the average rate in the high season is 140 e. • Competitor 2—“Masseria Ducale”: residence consisting of eight villas, equipped with at least one bedroom, with a large living area, an American kitchen equipped with modern hobs, bathroom with glass shower, terrace, Dolby surround and safe. The average area of the apartments is 110 m2 . The average rate in the low season is 60 e, whereas the average rate in the high season is 180 e. • Competitor 3—“Villa Giovanna”: this is a 60 m2 apartment, consisting of a kitchen complete with oven and microwave, coffee machine and kettle, a flat-screen TV,

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Fig. 5 Asset being assessed (green one) and competitors identified in the reference area (red ones)

a private bathroom with bathtub or shower and two bedrooms. The average rate in low season is 55 e, whereas the average rate in high season is 110 e. • In Table 2, for each competitors the average unit rates relating to the low and high season periods are determined. The average unit rates for low (t low ) and high season (t high ) are determined by considering a reduction of 15% [14], related to the ordinary negotiation phase, to the arithmetic average of the unit prices per night detected for the competitors, by obtaining: 0.562 + 0.545 + 0.917 = 0.573 e/m2 /night 3 1.077 + 1.636 + 1.833 = = 1.288 e/m2 /night 3

tlow = thigh

The gross potential annual income of the tourist/accommodation facility under evaluation can be assessed equal to 746,727 e by considering: Table 2 Average daily unit rates relating to the competitors Competitor

Surface [m2 ]

Low tourism season

High tourism season

Average rate/night [e]

Average rate/night [e]

Unit rate/night [e/m2 ]

Unit rate/night [e/m2 ]

1

130

73

0.562

140

1,077

2

110

60

0.545

180

1,636

3

60

55

0.917

110

1,833

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i.

the breakdown of 365 days of annual activity into 90 days of high season and 275 days of low season; ii. an average annual occupancy rate set conservatively at 46.16%, therefore lower than the average annual occupancy rate of 54.9% recorded by Italian Hotel Monitor for Taranto (cited in Fig. 4); iii. an additional income from secondary activities (restaurant, reception room, bar on the ground floor) equal to 15% of the accommodation’s income. The capitalization rate, due to the lack of specific indications on the gross profitability rates of the tourism-hotel sector, is determined by comparing the maximum unit values for leasing and sale relating to the “offices” intended use, reported by the Real Estate Market Observatory of the Revenue Agency for the Microzone “D7” of the Municipality of Taranto, as this function is the most similar one to the sector analyzed and For this reason, the “maximum” value has been considered more appropriate than the “average” one. Therefore, r is equal to 8.308% ([9 e/m2 /month · 12 months]/1,300 e/m2 ). The market value of the hypothetical tourist-hotel facility, obtained by comparing the gross annual income to the gross annual capitalization rate, is equal to 746,627: Vmt A = 8, 987, 181 e(R/r = 746.627 e/0.08308). In Table 3 the expense items for determining the transformation cost of hypothesis A are reported. The secondary urbanization charges are calculated by applying to the gross OS of the tourist/hotel building, the parametric amount envisaged for hotel construction reported in the municipal tables. The construction costs include the amounts for the building’s construction, the private parking spaces, the swimming pools and the contiguous terrace area, the arrangement of the green areas and sidewalks. The measurement of construction costs was taken from the “Building typology prices” list, according to [17]. These amounts were reduced by 10% to take into account the existing diminutive effect of the of Milan’s market and that of Taranto [18, 19]. The expanses adopted were also confirmed by an informal survey carried out among the construction companies operating in the area. Therefore, the construction costs are equal to: 216 e/m3 for the building; 44.10 e/m2 for the parking spaces; 135 e/m2 for the swimming pools; 35 e/m2 for the paved terrace; 40.50 e/m2 for the arrangement of the external areas. The technical expenses include the commitments for the design, management, testing and operations required by the transformation intervention. The amount was estimated assuming an incidence of 6% on the total construction cost [9]. General expenses, on the other hand, involve the disbursements for the assembly operation, the fees for consultancy, the costs for the marketing of the real estate units built, etc. General expenses are estimated according to an incidence of 3% on the total construction cost. The total amount of the technical and general expenses is therefore equal to 495,536.45 e.

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Table 3 Transformation cost of hypothesis A Costs

Unit cost/percentage incidence

Quantity

Total (e)

Secondary urbanization (hotel)

15.26 e/m2 OS

6,408 m2 OS

97,786

Sub total A

–

–

97,786

Urbanization fees

Construction costs 216 e/m3

Apartment building

e/m2

Private parking

44.10

Pools

135 e/m2 e/m2

Pools area arrangement

35

External area arrangement (greenery, sidewalk etc.)

40.50 e/m2

24,574 m3

5,307,980

2,477 m2

109,248

235 m2

31,725

m2

19,845

918 m2

37,162

567

Sub total B

–

–

5,505,961

Technical and general expenses

9%

Sub total B

495,536

Total investment costs before financial charges

–

–

6,099,283

Financial charges

10%

(Sub total A + B) + tec. and gen. exp

609,928 6,709,211

Total costs

The financial charges include the price of undifferentiated capital use, that the private developer borrows for the accomplishment of the intervention. This is an item destined to vary according to the extent of the amount, the interest rate payable on the market at the time of valuation, the guarantees offered by the subject who contracts the debt and the duration of the loan. In the case under consideration, the financial charges are calculated assuming that the entire capital required for the operation is loan capital, in the flat rate of 10% of the total investment costs before financial charges. The result is a cost for financial charges of 609,928.31 e. Definitely, the overall cost of transformation of hypothesis A is equal to: Vkt A = 6,709,211.40 e. The transformation value (Vt A ) of hypothesis A, relating to the construction of tourist-hotel residences, is calculated through the difference between the market value of the transformed asset (8,987,181 e) and the costs to be incurred for the transformation (6,709,211.40 e), obtaining the following amount: V t A = V mt A − V kt A = 8,987,181 e − 6,709,211.40 e = 2,277,969.60 e. It should be noted that the assessment was developed without considering the distribution of costs and revenues over time and therefore neglecting the diminutive

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effects deriving from discount transactions. In fact, given that the time duration of the initiative can be quantified in about two years, including processing and sales times, it is supposed that the instant assessment does not introduce appreciable fluctuations in the results.

5 The Convenience of Hypothesis B As for the construction of residential buildings and shops of hypothesis A, the transformation value of hypothesis B (Vt B ) is obtained by subtracting the costs of the transformation itself (Vmt B ) from the market value of the asset after transformation (Vkt B ). In symbols: Vt B = Vmt B – Vkt B . Regarding the market value of the transformed asset (Vmt B ), this assessment requires to determine the revenues obtainable from the sale of subsidized residential units and the shops achievable through the initiative. With regard to the sale of subsidized residential units, the Municipality of Taranto has set a maximum unit sale price, including parking space, equal to 1,550 e/m2 OS. By applying this price to the 5,550 m2 of surface area of the subsidized residential units, a market value of 8,602,500 e (= 1,550 e/m2 · 5,550 m2 ) is obtained. The market value of the shops can be assessed by applying to the 934 m2 of gross surface area to be built, the price of 1,100 e/m2 , according to a market survey in the area, obtaining the amount of 1,027,400 e (= 1,100 e/m2 · 934 m2 ). Ultimately, the market value of the transformed asset, assessed by adding the quantities reachable from the sale of the subsidized residential units and the revenues from the sale of the shops, is: Vmt B = 9,629,900 e (= 8,602,500 e + 1,027,400 e). The expense items that define the transformation cost of hypothesis B are shown in Table 4. The secondary urbanization fees are calculated by applying to the OS of residential units and commercial spaces the parametric amounts provided for the same functions in the municipal tables. The construction costs include the amounts for the construction of residences, shops, parking and private green areas. As for hypothesis A, the construction costs were assessed by consulting the “Building types prices” list, according to [17]. The construction costs are equal to: 216 e/m3 for residences and shops; 40.50 e/m2 for the arrangement of green areas; 44.10 e/m2 for parking spaces. The technical and general expenses was estimated on the assumption of a 9% incidence on the total construction cost, for a total amount of 447,305 e. As well as for hypothesis A, the financial charges are assessed considering that the entire capital required for the intervention is borrowed, with a flat rate of 10% of the total investment costs before financial charges: therefore, the total financial charges are equal to 549,400 e. Ultimately, the total cost of transforming hypothesis B is equal to: Vkt B = 6,043,405 e. In conclusion, the transformation value of hypothesis B, relating to the construction of subsidized residential units and shops, can be assessed subtracting by the market value of the transformed asset, estimated at 9,629,900 e, the cost necessary

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Table 4 Transformation cost of hypothesis B Costs

Unit cost/percentage incidence

Quantity

Total (e)

Secondary urbanization (res)

11.74 e/m2 OS

5,550 m2 OS

65,157

Secondary urbanization (shops)

15.26 e/m2 OS

753 m2 OS

11,491

Sub total A

–

–

76,648

Urbanization fees

Construction costs 216 e/m3

Residences

e/m3

18,806 m3

4,062,096

m3

706,104

Shops

216

Private green spaces

40.50 e/m2

2,534 m2

102,627

Private parking

44.10 e/m2

2,250 m2

99,225

3,269

Sub total B

–

–

4,970,052

Technical and general expenses

9%

Sub total B

447,305

Total investment costs before financial charges

–

–

5,494,004

Financial charges

10%

(Sub total A + B) + tec. and gen. exp

549,400 6,043,405

Total costs

for the transformation, determined into the extent of 6,043,405 e, therefore: Vt b = Vmt B – Vkt B = 9,629,900 e − 6,043,405 e = 3,586,495 e. As for hypothesis A, the distribution over time of costs and revenues are not considered.

6 The “Higher Value” Generated by the Urban Planning Variant The verification of the potential “higher value” (ΔBA ) generated by the hypothesis B can be performed through the difference between the amount of the transformation value (Vt B ) assessed for hypothesis B and the amount of the transformation value (Vt A ) determined for hypothesis A: Δ B A = V t B − V t A = 3,586,495 e − 2,277,969.60 e = 1,308,525.44 e.

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Table 5 Projectual parameters of the nursery school

Parameter

Quantity

Plot surface

2,530 m2

Building gross surface

714.29 m2

Maximum height

3.5 m

Total volume

2,500 m3

This amount identifies the “higher value” that, pursuant to art.16, paragraph 4, letter d-ter) of D.P.R. no. 380/2001, the private developer is required to pay to the PA (not less than 50%). Finally, the extraordinary urbanization contribution to be paid to the PA must be at least equal to: ΔBA /2 = 1,308,525.44 e/2 = 654,262.72 e. In order to check that the cost of realization of the nursery school (C school ), that the private developer has undertaken to build and freely transfer to the PA, is at least equal to 50% of the “higher value” generated by the urban planning variant (C school ≥ ΔBA /2), the construction of a nursery school with three sections (90 children) is assumed, whose projectual parameters can be summarized as follows (Table 5). A square shape is assumed with a canopy to protect the main entrance of the nursery school. It will be built with the three sections and the canteen arranged around a common area intended for free activities, which will take light from the surrounding garden and from above. The central space will have direct access from both the school and the garden. The school will be equipped with a photovoltaic system for energy autonomy. The areas pertaining to the school will be arranged in green areas and pavements. Table 6 shows the expense items that define the realization cost of the nursery school. Table 6 Realization cost of the nursery school Costs

Unit cost/percentage incidence

Quantity

198 e/m3

2,500 m3

Total (e)

Construction costs School Photovoltaic system External arrangement (greenery, sidewalks, etc.)

495,000 35,000

40.50 e/m2

1,815.71 m2

73,536

Sub total A

–

–

603,536

Technical and general expenses

9%

Sub Total A

54,318

Total investment costs before financial charges Financial charges Total costs

657,855 10%

Sub total A + tec. and gen. exp

65,785 723,640

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The construction costs include the amounts to build the nursery school, the photovoltaic system, the external green arrangements and sidewalks. Also, in this case, the measurement of construction costs was assessed by consulting the “Building types prices” list of the [17]. The construction costs used are therefore equal to: 198 e/m3 for the school; 35,000 e for the photovoltaic system; 40.50 e/m2 for the arrangement of green areas. Technical and general expenses have been estimated assuming an incidence of 9% on the total construction cost, for an amount of 54,318 e. The financial charges were assessed assuming that the entire amount required for the operation is a loan capital, considering a flat rate equal to 10% of the total investment costs before financial charges. The result is a cost for financial charges equal to 65,785 e. Ultimately, the total realization cost of the three-section nursery school is: C school = 723,640 e. Summarizing the data illustrated so far: • the “higher value” (ΔBA ) generated by the urban planning variant corresponds to 1,308,525.44 e; • the minimum amount that the private developer is required to pay to the PA as extraordinary urbanization contribution, pursuant to art.16, paragraph 4, letter d-ter) of D.P.R. no.380/2001, equal to half of the “higher value”, is 654,262.72 e; • the realization cost of the nursery school (C school ), which the private developer has undertaken to build and freely transfer to the PA, is equal to 723,640 e. Ultimately, the realization cost of the nursery school exceeds for an amount equal to 69,377.28 e (= 723,640 e − 654,262.72 e) the minimum amount that the private developer must pay to the PA, pursuant to art. 16, paragraph 4, letter d -ter) of D.P.R. no. 380/2001. This surplus value represents an additional benefit for the community.

7 Conclusions The institution of the extraordinary urbanization contribution constitutes an important innovation in the Italian regulatory framework, capable of aligning the country with the most virtuous European countries in the context of urban taxation policies aimed at directing more capitals for public purposes [20– 24]. The absence of a methodology established by the legislator for the determination of the “higher value” generated by the interventions provided by art. 16 letter d-ter) of the D.P.R. no.380/2001, has currently caused a methodologically uneven regulatory panorama. This work, in line with the described framework, intended to define a reference procedural protocol for the municipal administrations, in accordance with the prodromes of the assessment methodology for determining the “higher value” generated by the urban planning variants. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology was verified by applying it to a case study, in the Municipality of Taranto (Italy). The results obtained made it possible to (i) reconstruct, through a series of clear and coded

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phases, the logical-operational process to be implemented for the correct determination of the transformation value of the two intervention hypotheses, (ii) verify the existence of the “higher value” produced by the hypothesis of a variant with respect to the original intervention, (iii) determine the economic benefit achievable by the public subject, following the approval of the urban planning variant. Future insights may concern (i) the possibility of applying the proposed protocol for other urban transformation interventions in the planning variant form in order to generalize its procedural structure, (ii) the definition of a rational methodology for the assessment of the sustainable extraordinary urbanization contribution that the private developer must pay to the PA, in compliance with the legal minimum percentage equal to 50%, able to guarantee the economic-financial balance sheet of the subjects involved, (iii) the implementation of the evaluation tool proposed taking into account the impact of the time for the development of the Discount Cash Flow Analysis.

References 1. Rusci S (2018) La Rigenerazione della rendita. Teorie e metodi per la rigenerazione urbana attraverso la rendita differenziale, Mimesis Edizioni 2. Smolka MO (2013) Implementing value capture in Latin America. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, MA, Cambridge 3. Smolka MO (2019) Value capture. The Wiley Blackwell encyclopedia of urban and regional studies, pp 1–5 4. Un-Habitat (2013) Urban planning for city leaders, Nairobi, cap 12 5. Walters LC (2013) Land value capture in policy and practice. J Property Tax Assess Admin 10(2):5–21 6. Wolf-Powers L (2019) Reclaim value capture for equitable urban development, metropolitics, 28 May 2019. Available at https://www.metropolitiques.eu/Reclaim-Value-Capture-for-Equita ble-Urban-Development.html; Yirgalem F (2018) The promises and perils of urban redevelopment for land value capture in Addis Ababa: the case of Casa Inchis redevelopment project. Ethiopian J Soc Sci 2(2) 7. Calabrò F, Della Spina L (2014) The public-private partnerships in buildings regeneration: a model appraisal of the benefits and for land value capture. In: Advanced materials research, vol 931. Trans Tech Publications Ltd., pp 555–559 8. Del Giudice V, De Paola P, Francesca T, Nijkamp PJ, Shapira A (2019) Real estate investment choices and decision support systems. Sustainability 11(11):3110 9. Las Casas G, Scorza F, Murgante B (2018) New urban agenda and open challenges for urban and regional planning. In: International symposium on new metropolitan perspectives. Springer, Cham, pp 282–288 10. Morano P, Tajani F, Anelli D, (2020) A decisions support model for investment through the social impact bonds. The case of the city of Bari (Italy) [Un modello a supporto delle decisioni per gli investimenti attuati mediante i Social Impact Bond. Il caso della città di Bari], Valori e Valutazioni, vol 1, no 24 11. Morano P, Guarnaccia C, Tajani F, Di Liddo F, Anelli D (2020) An analysis of the noise pollution influence on the housing prices in the central area of the city of Bari. J Phys Conf Ser 1603(1):012027 12. Anelli D, Sica F (2020) The financial feasibility analysis of urban transformation projects: an application of a quick assessment model. In: International symposium: new metropolitan perspectives, pp 462–474

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13. Locurcio M, Tajani F, Morano P, Anelli D (2021) A multi-criteria decision analysis for the assessment of the real estate credit risks. In: Appraisal and valuation, pp 327–337 14. Nomisma (2019) 3° Rapporto dell’Osservatorio sul Mercato Immobiliare, Milano 15. RICS (2020) RICS valuation—global standards, London (UK) 16. Cubukcu KM (2020) The problem of fair division of surplus development rights in redevelopment of urban areas: can the Shapley value help? Land Use Policy 91:104320 17. Collegio degli Ingegneri e Architetti di Milano (2019) Prezzario-Nuove Costruzioni, DEITipografia del Genio Civile, Roma 18. Agenzia delle Entrate (2011) Manuale Operativo delle Stime Immobiliari, Franco Angeli, Milano 19. Manganelli B (2011) Il deprezzamento degli immobili urbani, Franco Angeli, Milano 20. Crupi F (2018) Rigenerazione urbana e città pubblica. Il Contributo Straordinario di Urbanizzazione nelle leggi regionali 21. Morano P, Guarini MR, Sica F, Anelli D (2021) Ecosystem services and land take. A composite indicator for the assessment of sustainable urban projects. In: International conference on computational science and its applications. Springer, Cham, pp 210–225 22. Rosato P, Breil M, Giupponi C, Berto R (2017) Assessing the impact of urban improvement on housing values: a hedonic pricing and multi-attribute analysis model for the historic Centre of Venice. Buildings 7(4):112 23. Morano P, Tajani F (2013) The transfer of development rights for the regeneration of brownfield sites. In: Applied mechanics and materials, vol 409. Trans Tech Publications Ltd. pp 971–978 24. Tajani F, Morano P, Locurcio M, D’Addabbo N (2015) Property valuations in times of crisis: artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms in comparison. In: International Conference on Computational Science and Its Applications. Springer, Cham, pp 194–209

Sustainability in Urban Regeneration: Real or Propaganda? Ezio Micelli and Federica Scaffidi

Abstract There is a growing body of literature that recognizes the importance of sustainability in contemporary cities and societies. Sustainable urban regeneration plays a vital role in city development. This research aims to understand whether what is theorized in the literature on sustainability has empirical effects on cities and specifically on urban regeneration. Considering this purpose, this paper showcases—through comparative analysis—four best practices of urban regeneration and the impacts these processes develop in the three sustainable pillars: environmental, economic and social. In conclusion, this paper is conceived as an opportunity to discuss theoretical and operational aspects for the development of future sustainable cities and we hope that this research will contribute to a deeper understanding of sustainable urban regeneration. Keywords Urban regeneration · Sustainability · Sustainable development · Cities

1 Background. Sustainability of the Urban Regeneration is a Multidimensional Concept? The past fifty years have seen increasingly rapid advances in the field of sustainable development. In the 1970s, the need to change development models began to be recognized worldwide with the United Nations Stockholm Conference (1972) on the Human Environment. This declaration affirms the opportunity to act not only in relation to the goals of peace and socio-economic development of the world, The paper was developed jointly by the authors. Nevertheless, the first paragraph has been written jointly, paragraphs 2 and 3 have been elaborated by Federica Scaffidi, paragraph 4 by Ezio Micelli while the conclusions have been drawn up jointly. E. Micelli Department of Architecture and Arts, Università Iuav di Venezia, Venice, Italy e-mail: [email protected] F. Scaffidi (B) Institute of Urban Design and Planning, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Hannover, Germany e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_5

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but also to protect and improve the environment for present and future generations. A pivotal role in sustainable development was also played by the Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development [19] which introduced the three sustainability pillars: social, environmental and economic. The concept of sustainability implies the ability of a development process to sustain the production of the world’s economic, human/social and natural capital over time. According to the Johannesburg Declaration, economic sustainability is the ability of an economic system to initiate permanent growth, through the creation of income and employment to sustain populations and through an effective combination of resources. It can be achieved by governing capital (natural, human, social and cultural), eliminating waste, innovating the production process and technology, and not compromising the well-being of future generations. Environmental sustainability is the ability to maintain the quality and reproducibility of natural resources over time, to preserve and maintain biological diversity and to ensure the integrity of ecosystems [3]. Social sustainability is the ability to sustain human well-being (security, health, education) and ensure this is equally distributed by class and gender. It means the continued satisfaction of basic human needs [6] (such as food, water, shelter), and higher social and cultural needs such as security, freedom, employment and recreation [5]. Extensive research has shown that it is important to reduce the consumption of natural resources and to keep the state of a system [15]. Other studies instead focused on sustainability as a fundamental right [4]. Several authors highlight that economy, environment and society are among the most important factors to define sustainability. According to Custance and Hiller [7] the intersection between economy, society and environment creates sustainable development. This is the model of the “three-ring circus”, which theorises a balancing process between economic, social and environmental priorities. The “Russian doll model” views sustainability as three concentric circles, which emphasises that the economy is dependent on society and that both are part of the wider environmental system [11]. Contemporary literature provides a huge number of publications, reports and declarations developed on the topic of sustainability. This concept became much more important in the last two decades, especially in relation to the development of sustainable cities. A key role in developing more sustainable and open cities was played by Agenda 21.1 Citizens, administrations and other stakeholders have a key role in the development of sustainable cities, where open, flexible and participatory processes enable cooperation with the community, create a new way of governance and public–private partnerships. Today, new advances have been made in this field and new goals have been set. The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations has set 17 goals for the sustainable development of our planet [20]. These goals pursue the objectives already planned in the past and focus on fulfilling basic human rights (no poverty, zero hunger, gender equality), increasing quality of life, promoting economic growth, the responsible production and consumption of resources, and the respect for the environment (at sea and on land). Some of the goals set to date have 1

Agenda 21 is an action plan of the United Nations on sustainable development. It is a product of the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1992.

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a strong impact on the cities of today and those to be planned in the future. Goal 11, in fact, calls for the design of sustainable cities and communities. The objective is to make more sustainable, inclusive, safe and resilient cities, where the community plays a key role in their urban development. This fosters a more open governance, that includes stakeholders in the decision-making processes, that innovates in the human settlements’ development in respect to the social, economic and environmental growth. According to the literature, it is possible to confirm that sustainable development is characterized by these three pillars: (1) Environmental sustainability (Preservation of urban biodiversity, Natural resource development, Regeneration of neglected urban spaces); (2) Economic sustainability (Innovation in manufacturing and development of new technology; Innovation in entrepreneurship management; Job creation); (3) Social sustainability (Satisfaction of human needs, Open governance, Sociocultural offers, Employment). Starting from this definition of sustainability, this study analyses the abovementioned characteristics in some case studies, consistently with other important comparative research with goals similar to that of this research [16, 18] and asks whether there is a real correspondence between what is theorized in the literature and the actual results in urban regeneration projects. The research deliberately does not consider the effects of the Covid19 pandemic, not because it deems them irrelevant in the city’s planning strategies [1, 2], but because, in the absence of a more stabilized framework, the consideration of these effects appears to be characterized by excessively random elements. The paper, after having considered the theoretical aspects of the problem, proceeds first of all to the illustration of the methodology and the data used. Subsequently, the results of the comparative survey are presented and the results of the survey are addressed and discussed. The conclusions summarize the contents of the research and present its main outcomes.

2 Methodology and Data Contemporary literature has amply demonstrated the importance of sustainability for urban development and regeneration [9, 10]. Many studies and international declarations, as expressed in the first part of this paper, have theorized different models of sustainability [7, 11, 19], where the interconnection of three pillars create the sustainable development of cities and societies. This research aims to understand whether what is theorized in the literature on sustainability has empirical effects on cities and specifically on urban regeneration. The paper focuses on a hypothesis to be tested, namely that quality sustainable urban regeneration is holistic, multidimensional or otherwise cannot be recognized as such. Considering this purpose, this research sets the following research question:

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Are sustainability principles really adopted in urban regeneration or are they just used for propaganda? To answer this question, international examples of urban regeneration have been selected. In this regard the research methodology was based on the following steps: • Case studies selection: the selection of the case studies—a methodology already used to explore how sustainability shapes urban policies [18]—was an important part of the research. The process was based on the selection of empirical examples of urban regeneration, which on the one hand are considered to be successful urban design cases located in an international urban design panorama, and on the other hand are examples widely recognized as best practices by contemporary literature. This paper indeed showcases the following four European examples of urban regeneration: Esto no es un solar in Zaragoza (Spain), Farm Cultural Park in Favara (Italy), Manufacture-Plaine-Achille of Saint-Étienne (France) and Superkilen park in Copenhagen (Denmark), • Data collection and analysis: information on the selected cases were collected through desk and bibliographic research, website investigation, and qualitative semi-structured interviews to local actors and experts. The data were analyzed through a comparative research method. In summary, this research aims to observe the empirical effects of what is said in the literature and to verify a real correspondence between the theoretical and empirical scenarios. The selected examples were compared according to the three sustainable pillars: environmental, economic and social. Notwithstanding the international relevance of the selected examples, future research may extend the scope of investigation and include other cases in the study of sustainable urban regeneration. The research indeed is conceived as a starting point and a basis for future researches in sustainable urban regeneration.

3 Results Literature has frequently shown the importance of sustainability in local development and urban regeneration [9, 12, 17]. Many reports and studies have already demonstrated that sustainability has a positive long-term impact on cities and societies [10]. One of the key reasons for this is the ability to develop flexible, resilient and innovative societies. It also creates the conditions which meet the human needs and develops an open governance that involves the community and the other stakeholders (Agenda 21). It promotes the development of a Tech company ecosystem that innovates the local economy with new employment, partnerships, and businesses [5] and it maintains and regenerates natural capital [3]. This study set out with the aim of assessing the real correspondence between what is theorised about sustainability and the actual results in urban regeneration projects. Considering this purpose, this study selected four successful urban regeneration projects that were analyzed through the pillars of sustainability: social, economic and environmental.

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The results of this study show some specific characteristics of sustainability in the following European projects of urban regeneration (see Table 1). The first case analysed is the project “Esto no es un solar” of Zaragoza, Spain. It is an urban regeneration project that tried to transform abandoned plots of the city and to make them open spaces for the community. “Esto no es un solar” literally means “This is not a ground” and refers to Magritte’s work “Ceci n’est pas une pipe”. Magritte in his work wants to make people reflect that an artwork is actually not the real object and following this logical thread, “Esto no es un solar” wants to highlight what an urban empty space is for a city. It can be a neglected and polluted space or a piece of potential for the city. Indeed, new solutions were proposed to regenerate these urban voids into usable spaces for the community, such as urban gardens, playground, sport areas, new community spaces and other facilities for the neighbourhoods. The findings show that the project contributes to the three pillars of sustainability. New environmental impacts indeed can be seen from the regeneration of these sites (see Table 1), where former abandoned spaces were cleaned, recovered and transformed. The urban voids were considered as a potential to transform the neglect and to create new urban ecosystems. These spaces were equipped with minimal cost using recycled materials to make the changes easily reversible. New ecological ecosystems were created and new vegetation planted. Some of the urban voids were regenerated into green areas and urban gardens where herbs and vegetables could be cultivated. Furthermore, this reactivation was one of the contributors that made the historic centre healthier and economically more competitive. New businesses and start-ups were opened and an employment programme was developed which employed previously unemployed people and people who had to do community work. As can be seen from Table 1, this urban regeneration project had a high social impact on its local ecosystem/environment. It was based on the demands and needs of the local population, which was involved during the regeneration. The participatory process ensured that each plot responded to the needs of its neighbourhood. Furthermore, the regeneration of these spaces in the neighbourhood increased the integration of social classes, genders, and it created opportunities for socialisation and community development. This ensured an increased quality of life for the citizens and a new interest for the historic centre [14]. The project involved many stakeholders, among them local NGOs and the City Council that supported in the project development. The second case that this research analysed is Farm Cultural Park. It is an urban regeneration project and a diffuse Contemporary Cultural Centre, located in the historical centre of Favara, Italy. Favara is a town in the hinterlands of Sicily which is characterised by high rate of unemployment and illegal building. The project recovered new and old assets, and public and semi-public spaces called the 7 courtyards. It is a socio-cultural space of the town, where temporary painting exhibitions and permanent contemporary art installations are held. Farm Cultural Park organises temporary and permanent exhibitions of famous and emerging artists, residencies for artists, workshops, book presentations, architecture competitions and festivals for its community and people from well beyond the city. As can be seen in the Table 1, this

Graphics by the authors

Superkilen park

Copenhagen, Denmark Regeneration of a neglected and peripheral urban context and development of new urban ecosystem with new vegetation and community garden

Reclaiming and transformation of a brownfield site, the industrial “friches” of Saint-Étienne

Transformation of neglected urban voids

Favara, Italy

Farm cultural park

Manufacture-Plaine-Achille Saint-Étienne, France

Transformation of neglected urban voids and creation of new urban ecosystems with new vegetation and community gardens

Zaragoza, Spain

Esto no es un solar

Environmental

Pillars of sustainability

Location

Name

Best practices

Sustainable urban regeneration

Table 1 Sustainable urban regeneration. Best practices and pillars of sustainability

Opening up new start-ups and increasing the economic competitiveness of a peripheral area of the city

Development of a platform where to support businesses and the opening of new start-ups

Economic renewal of the town. Opening of new companies, social enterprises and start-ups

Improved competitiveness of the neighbourhood. Opening of new activities and start-ups. Development of an employment programme

Economic

Development of new community spaces for the neighbourhood

Development of a social and creative space for education, research and design. Development of a process of community involvement

Development of a socio-cultural space, with education, exhibitions and events. Reduction of migration flows, especially of young people

Development of participatory process and citizens’ needs satisfaction. Creation of community spaces and stakeholders’ network

Social

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project contributes to the environmental pillar of sustainability by recycling abandoned buildings and urban spaces in the historic centre of Favara. The 7 courtyards have been recovered and transformed through art, architecture and nature. The findings also show that this project contributes to the economic pillar of sustainability. Thanks to the regeneration process of this urban space of Favara, many companies, social enterprises and start-ups opened, and new job opportunities were developed. Table 1 also shows the social impact Farm Cultural Park has in the town, being as a driving force for the economy of the area, leading to the creation of B&Bs and premises for quality tourism. An average of 120,000 people now visit the region every year thanks to this urban regeneration. Farm Cultural Park develops a sociocultural space with innovative educational courses, exhibitions and events. SOU is an architecture school for kids inspired by Japanese architecture and Japanese architect Sou Fujimoto. It is a place where children learn to freely express their thoughts, to think with creativity and contribute to the change, a place where they learn the power of social participation, tolerance, solidarity, and social commitment. Other activities positively affect the social context, such as “Nzemmula” which is a shared social kitchen where inhabitants, visitors and artists can relax and network, or “Mercato Sette Cortili” which is a market held in the courtyards of the Cultural Farm Park where local products are commercialized. “Società per azioni buone” tries to bring together people to take concrete actions for collective growth. All these socio-economic activities influence the city development and reduce the emigration, especially of young people. Favara is becoming an attractive centre for tourists that are interested in the cultural and artistic events and for local young people and foreigners that want to invest in Favara. The third case analysed is the Manufacture-Plaine-Achille creative district in Saint-Étienne, France. This neighbourhood is the symbol of French Tech. It is a 100-hectare city-park, and it welcomes a vibrant ecosystem of dynamism. The findings show that this urban regeneration project created a place where you can combine daily life, art, culture, technology and leisure. As shown in Table 1, the project contributes to the environmental pillar of sustainability by reclaiming and transforming the industrial “friches”2 of Saint-Étienne. This project converted a brownfield into a socio-economic and cultural space. The project also contributes to the social pillar (see Table 1) with the development of many activities organised by the centres within this creative district, such as Cité du design and Telecom Saint-Étienne. They promote a social and creative space for education, research and design. The Cité du design was inaugurated in 2009 on the former site of the Manufacture d’armes de Saint-Étienne, in the heart of the creative district. It is a platform for higher education, research and economic development, which aims to promote design to the general public. The Telecom Saint-Étienne is another socially dynamic place. It is a school that trains students in new technologies and is where the Design Tech Academy takes place. Furthermore, the whole project of urban regeneration was disseminated and publicised among the community and the Collective 2

Friche is a French term which refers to the westland.

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Humancitizens Office of Saint-Étienne Experimentations (C.H.O.S.E) was developed to support local initiatives and laboratories and to make the city more humane. Table 1 also shows the economic impact of this example of urban regeneration and how this is promoting a sustainable future for the local development of this area. The Manufacture-Plaine-Achille district supports businesses and the development of new start-ups through the “Grande Usine Créative”, the “Crédit Agricole”, “le mixeur”, “Centre des Savoirs pour l’Innovation (CSI)” and the High Technology Building (BHT). The “Grande Usine Créative” is designed to support business creation and the development of start-ups. It literally means big creative factory and it has modular offices in a vibrant ecosystem focused on design and innovation. In this former industrial site. Saint-Étienne Métropole created a 1.000 m2 business hotel that has offices for SMEs in the design and digital sector. Crédit Agricole has set up a 600 m2 village bringing together young companies selected by the bank (Village by C&A). The Mixeur is a hotspot for experimentation managed by Saint-Étienne Métropole, it is a business incubator dedicated to young creative start-ups. It also offers economic and cultural programming allowing local actors to promote their creations, as well as a free coworking space. The “Centre des Savoirs pour l’Innovation (CSI)” is a training space, and an innovation-entrepreneurship-technology transfer centre. In the CSI, students, teachers, researchers and companies have a dynamic space where they can work and learn together with digital and audiovisual tools. The High Technology Building (BHT) is a business incubator that helps young entrepreneurs specializing in the fields of health, optics, manufacturing etc. The fourth case analysed is the Superkilen park of Copenhagen, Denmark. It is an example of sustainable urban regeneration in the neighbourhood of Nørrebro, a peripheral part of the city. It created a 750-m-long park with a total area of about 30.000 m2 which is famous for its colourful urban design that divides the space in three main parts. Three colours were adopted to classify the urban space. The red part follows the jagged perimeter of the adjacent buildings and looks like a large square, where people can meet, do sport and play. It offers modern, urban life with cafés, music and sport. The facades of the surrounding buildings are coloured like the pavement, creating a three-dimensional colour experience. The trees are also all red, with the exception of the existing ones. The black part is characterised by long white stripes that move against a black background and create many communities’ micro-spaces. It is a space for play, interaction and relaxation that can be achieved by sitting in the shade of the Japanese trees, around the Moroccan fountain, relaxing on the Turkish benches or playing chess at the Bulgarian tables. The third and last part is green; it is characterised by a literally entirely green space, with rolling hills, trees and plants suitable for picnics, sports and walking the dog. As can be seen from Table 1, this project contributes to the environmental pillar of sustainability by recovering a neglected urban space in the periphery of Copenhagen and the development of new natural spaces that increased the biodiversity in the city. New vegetation was planted and new gardens were designed, as requested by the local inhabitants, to create more green space in this part of the city. The project also developed a cycle path for sustainable mobility through the whole park. The

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inhabitants were involved in the selection of the street furniture, and many of the objects in the park have been specially imported or copied. Each of Nørrebro’s 57 ethnic communities are represented in the park by at least one object, such as swings from Iraq, benches from Brazil and Turkey, a fountain from Morocco, litter bins from England, and manhole covers coming from Zanzibar, Gdansk and Paris. This project has an important social impact in this multicultural neighbourhood which is periodically characterised by episodes of violence, vandalism and criminality. Superkilen has succeeded in joining two residential areas formerly divided by a fence and has reconnected the surrounding areas to the rest of the city. Furthermore, the park’s facilities encourage people to become more active and meet other people in this social environment. It is a project that promotes integration in Denmark’s most multicultural neighbourhood. It develops heterogenous meeting places representing the identities of sixty different nationalities living there and attracting people from across the city and around the world. It is a place of ethnic diversity that creates a multicultural and diverse space that attracts a wide range of ages, from small children with their parents to elderly people. The public consultation process was extensive, and many suggestions on the needs, park facilities and urban furniture were gathered. Thanks to the community involvement, the diversity of the neighbourhood has been transformed from a limitation to a creative resource which allowed them to create a park with a truly unique identity. Table 1 also indicates that this urban regeneration project contributes to the economic pillar of sustainability by encouraging the opening up of new start-ups and increasing the economic competitiveness of this peripheral area of the city. The results of this comparative analysis show that the project “Esto no es un solar” of Zaragoza is a sustainable project that contributes to the environmental, social and economic pillar of sustainability. This intervention transformed neglected spaces of the historic centre into new urban environments, with gardens and new plantation. The enhancement of the urban context increased the quality and competitiveness of this part of the city and created the foundation for a number of new activities, organisations and start-ups. The results also indicate that this urban regeneration project created a stronger, more integrated community and a city which is built for the needs of its community. This comparative analysis also show that the urban regeneration project of Farm Cultural Park is a sustainable project that have a good effect on the city of Favara and it contributes to the environmental, social and economic pillar of sustainability. This project recycled a part of the historic centre. It created a new urban atmosphere and new socio-cultural activities have been developed as a result. This in turn resulted in the opening of new companies, the development of new jobs and a consequent reduction of emigration. The analysis developed on ManufacturePlaine-Achille creative district show that this is a sustainable project of urban regeneration that has positive impacts on the city of Saint-Étienne and it contributes to the environmental, social and economic pillar of sustainability. It was an industrial site that previously housed a state-owned weapons manufacturer, the “Saint-Étienne Weapons Factory”. Thanks to this project a brownfield site in the city was reclaimed. It transformed a neglected urban site into a dynamic ecosystem for the community. The results indicate that this regeneration project is developing long-term economic

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impacts in the neighbourhood and the city by fostering new businesses, supporting young entrepreneurs, educating students in innovation and start-ups development. They further show that this urban regeneration project developed a socio-cultural space for integration, co-working and co-designing, that encourages people to work and learn together. The Superkilen park project is also a sustainable urban regeneration which contributes to the environmental, social and economic pillar of sustainability. It is a project that regenerated a neglected, peripheral urban space and turned it into a bustling new urban ecosystem with new vegetation and urban gardens. It creates new community spaces for the neighbourhood which reduces conflicts, and creates spaces for interaction and social inclusion. In summary, the results of this study show that the four cases have a positive effect in the urban context because they transform and regenerate neglected urban areas. This process also leads to the economic development of the neighbourhood in terms of the opening of new start-ups and social enterprises, and consequently new jobs. Furthermore, sustainable urban regeneration creates new social values through the development of socio-cultural offers and community spaces. The comparative analysis, however, also shows a slight environmental impact. In the following section, it can be seen the level of impact these regeneration processes have according to the pillars of sustainability.

4 Discussion In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in sustainability. Evidence suggests that sustainability is among the most important factors for the long-term success of an urban project [7, 10]. A key part of a projects success comes from the planning stage which must incorporate the three dimensions of sustainability. This study contributes to this growing area of research by exploring four European case studies which showcase the best practices of urban regeneration from Spain, Italy, France and Denmark. Through the study of these examples, the impacts on the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability were analysed. The present study is designed to determine whether what is theorised in the literature on sustainability has empirical effects on cities and specifically on urban regeneration. The research question of this study is indeed: Are sustainability principles really adopted in urban regeneration or are they just used for propaganda? According to the literature, sustainability is characterized by an interdependent relationship between the economy, society and environment as affirmed by [7] in the “three-ring circus” model and by [11] in the “Russian doll model”. The social, environmental and economic aspects play a crucial role in sustainable development. According to the Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development [19], sustainability improves living conditions through better access to health, education, social and employment which are more equally distributed by class and gender. It aims to develop lasting income and employment, and to achieve eco-efficiency

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through the sustainable use of local resources, regeneration of neglected spaces, preserve the urban biodiversity and development of natural resources. An important role in sustainability is also played by the open governance that involves citizens, administrations and other stakeholders in participatory processes and public–private partnerships (Agenda 21). In studying the empirical cases of urban regeneration, it can be seen that each project has impacts in the environmental, economic and social dimensions. In all of these examples, the community played a central role in the planning phase with strong engagement from all stakeholders. This study supports evidence from previous observations [13]. The results confirm the interrelation between the three pillars of sustainability for the long-term success of a project. This study further reinforces the findings in the literature [8, 9] and suggests the following need to be done so a regeneration project can achieve environmental, economic and social sustainability: (1) Social sustainability (Participatory processes and community cooperation; Development of socio-cultural offer; Satisfaction of human needs and employment); (2) Economic sustainability (Development of new economies; New forms of entrepreneurship; New jobs); (3) Environmental sustainability (Preservation of urban biodiversity; Regeneration and reclaiming of neglected asset; Natural resource development). Table 2 shows the importance of each action on the three pillars of sustainability for these examples. This shows that participatory processes and community cooperation have the highest level of importance for Farm Cultural Park and Esto no es un solar. In Esto no es un solar, citizens were involved in the project from the beginning and contributed towards the development of new functions for the spaces and the employment programme. Farm Cultural Park is a socio-cultural centre where community cooperation is part of the core of this urban space. Superkilen park and Manufacture-Plaine-Achille had much lower levels of participatory engagement and community cooperation was limited to definition of the social needs and feedback on the design proposals. Manufacture-Plaine-Achille and Farm Cultural Park have a high social impact, where the cultural centres actively offer these services for the community. Both cases include educational services and cultural activities. Manufacture-Plaine-Achille stands out for its support of new entrepreneurs and Farm Cultural Park for its commitment to culture and offering services for children, young women and artists. This is found at a lower level in Superkilen park and Esto no es un solar where the cultural offer is found in the spaces for sport, games and leisure. In all four cases a moderate level of importance is placed on the “satisfaction of human needs and employment”, which was only done through surveys and interviews. Regarding the economic dimension, Manufacture-Plaine-Achille and Farm Cultural Park place a high level of importance on each of the three sustainable actions (Development of new economies, new forms of entrepreneurship, new jobs). New companies were created in both places, and new jobs and start-ups were opened creating an economic dynamism in this urban context. As mentioned above, Manufacture-Plaine-Achille specifically supports new and young entrepreneurs, and

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provides a business incubator. The other two projects place a low level of importance on actions “new economies development” and “new job positions”, and only contribute in an indirect way because new start-ups have opened in the area but not within the project itself. The environmental dimension has a high level of importance for “Regeneration and reclaiming of neglected assets” and is seen in all the four of the examples, because they reclaimed and regenerated neglected urban spaces. “Preservation of urban biodiversity” and “natural resources development” are mainly seen in Superkilen park and Esto no es un solar where the biodiversity of the place was preserved, and new community gardens and green spaces were developed. A lower level was observed in Manufacture-Plaine-Achille and Farm Cultural Park. Table 2 Sustainable actions Sustainable actions

Social pillar

Economic pillar

Superkilen park

Manufacture-Plaine-Achille Farm Esto no Cultural es un Park solar

Copenhagen, Saint-Étienne, France Denmark

Favara, Italy

Zaragoza, Spain

Participatory processes and community cooperation

xx

xx

xxx

xxx

Socio-cultural offer development

xx

xxx

xxx

xx

Satisfaction of xx human needs and employment

xx

xx

xx

New economies development

x

xxx

xx

x

New forms of – entrepreneurship

xxx

xxx

–

New jobs

x

xxx

xxx

x

xx

x

x

xx

Regeneration and reclaiming of neglected asset

xxx

xxx

xxx

xxx

Natural resources development

xxx

x

x

xx

Environmental Preservation of urban pillar biodiversity

Graphics by the authors x: low, xx: average, xxx: high

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According to these data, we can infer that not all selected cases have strong impacts on the three pillars of sustainability. It can be also stated that in some cases, sustainability actions are not really present at all. This is the example of the action “development of new forms of entrepreneurship” which is not present for the Superkilen park and Esto no es un solar cases. Therefore, it can be assumed that not all the experiences of urban regeneration apply the sustainable principles of the three pillars of sustainability. These findings may help us to understand that it is important to establish a specific set of environmental, economic and social sustainability actions that quality urban regeneration must follow in order to be sustainable. This is an important issue for future research. Future studies on the current topic are therefore recommended.

5 Conclusions In the last fifty years, several researches, publications and international declarations have been made on sustainable development. Many slogans about sustainability surround contemporary life and many advances on this concept have also been made in literature. Evidence suggests that sustainability is among the most important factor for the long-term success of an urban project [7, 10] and have amply demonstrated the importance of sustainability for urban development and regeneration [9]. Many studies and declarations have theorised different models of sustainability [7, 11, 19], where the interconnection of three pillars—environmental, economic and social— create the sustainable development of cities and societies. In this regard, the extensive literature on sustainability invites reflection on the assessment of the real correspondence between what is theorised about sustainability and the actual results in urban regeneration projects. Therefore, this research aims to understand whether what is theorised in the literature on sustainability has empirical effects on cities and specifically on urban regeneration. The paper indeed focuses on a hypothesis to be tested, namely that quality sustainable urban regeneration is holistic, multidimensional or otherwise cannot be recognised as such. Considering this purpose, this research sets the following research question: Are sustainability principles really adopted in urban regeneration or are they just used for propaganda? To answer this question, international examples of urban regeneration have been selected and analysed in a comparative way. It is argued that these interventions have positive impacts on urban space and promote the environmental, economic and social development of the city. However, these cases do not have an equal impact on the three pillars, confirming the thesis that not all these cases can be considered examples of sustainable urban regeneration. This is an important result, which may help future studies to establish guidelines for environmental, economic and social sustainability, which quality urban regeneration must follow in order to be sustainable.

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The major limitation of this study is a lack of other examples, especially outside Europe; therefore, future research is needed to investigate the similarities and differences which may exist in other cases of sustainable urban regeneration which lie inside and outside of this continent. The research indeed is conceived as a starting point and a basis for future researches in sustainable urban regeneration.

References 1. Abastante F, Lami IL, Mecca B (2020) How covid-19 influences the 2030 agenda: do the practices of achieving the sustainable development goal 11 need rethinking and adjustment? Valori e Valutazioni 26:11–23 2. Allam Z, Jones DS (2020) Pandemic stricken cities on lockdown. Where are our planning and design professionals [now, then and into the future]? Land Use Policy 97:104805 3. Boff L (2012) Una definizione di sostenibilità. Arianna, Bologna 4. Bosselmann K (2008) The principle of sustainability: transforming law and governance. Ashgate, Farnham 5. Brown B, Hanson M, Liverman D, Merideth R (1987) Global sustainability: toward definition. Environ Manage 11(6):713–719 6. Brundtland GH (1987) Report of the world commission on environment and development: our common future. Available at https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/ 5987our-common-future.pdf 7. Custance J, Hillier H (1998) Statistical issues in developing indicators of sustainable development. J R Stat Soc A Stat Soc 161(3):281–290 8. Ehrenfeld JR (2008) Sustainability needs to be attained, not managed. Sustain Sci Pract Policy 4:1–3 9. Evans J, Jones P (2009) Rethinking sustainable urban regeneration: ambiguity, creativity and the shared territory. Environ Plann A Econ Space 40(6):1416–1434 10. Hemphill L, McGreal S, Berry J (2011) An aggregated weighting system for evaluating sustainable urban regeneration. J Prop Res 19(4):353–373 11. Levett R (1998) Sustainability indicators—integrating quality of life and environmental protection. J R Stat Soc A 161(Part 3):291–302 12. Micelli E (2018) Enabling real property. How public real estate assets can serve urban regeneration. Territorio 87:93–97 13. Moulaert F, Martinelli F, Swyngedouw E, Gonzalez S (2005) Towards alternative model(s) of local innovation. Urban Stud 42(11):1969–1990 14. Pellegrini P, Micelli E (2019) Paradoxes of the Italian historic centres between underutilisation and planning policies for sustainability. Sustainability 11(91):2614 15. Rios-Osorio L, Lobato MO, Del Castillo A (2005) Debates on sustainable development: towards a holistic view of reality. Environ Dev Sustain 7(4):501–518 16. Rozhenkova V, Allmang S, Ly S, Franken D, Heymann J (2019) The role of comparative city policy data in assessing progress toward the urban SDG targets. Cities 95 17. Scaffidi F (2021) Social innovation in productive assets redevelopment: insights from the urban development scene. In: Bevilacqua C, Calabrò F, Della Spina L (eds) Smart innovation, systems and technologies, vol 178. Springer, pp 1003–1011 18. Valencia S, Simon D, Croese S, Nordqvist J, Oloko M, Sharma T, Taylor BN, Versace I (2019) Adapting the sustainable development goals and the new urban agenda to the city level: initial reflections from a comparative research project. Int J Urban Sustain Dev 11(1):4–23

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19. United Nations (2002) Dichiarazione di Johannesburg sullo sviluppo sostenibile, Summit Mondiale sullo Sviluppo Sostenibile, 2-4 settembre 2002, Johannesburg, Sud Africa. Available at https://www.isprambiente.gov.it/it/attivita/formeducambiente/educazione-ambientale/ file-educazione-ambientale/eos/dichiarazione-johannesburg.pdf 20. United Nations (2022) Social development for sustainable development. https://www.un. org/development/desa/dspd/2030agenda-sdgs.html#:~:text=They%20are%20integrated% 20and%20indivisible,the%20new%20Agenda%20is%20realized

How to Evaluate Public Spaces as High-Value Impact Opportunities for the Last Generation Adaptive Cities Federica Cadamuro Morgante and Alessandra Oppio

Abstract The utterly unpredicted advent of Covid-19 pandemic has profoundly changed human lives, not only in people habits but in their perception of relateddensity urban spaces and their use. Smart Cities based on technocentric efficiency are gradually replaced by a new city paradigm: the adaptive cities. The term “adaptive” inspires a new model of interaction between citizens, technology and spaces starting from urban characteristics and users’ needs towards a better accomplishment of the UN seventeen-SDG idea of inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable cities, thus stressing the social dimension. This scenario represents a new challenge in reshaping cities for policy makers, investors, planners and all actors involved in this innovative regeneration process that would comply with ESG criteria. A starting point of Adaptive cities is certainly represented by public spaces that have been rediscovered by people experiencing pandemic. The present paper explores under an evaluative lens the potential social impact of public spaces. Through literature and empirical evidence, it is then introduced the issue of measuring those values that pertain social and collective dimension (extra-market values). Finally, it is discussed how intangible values can be integrated with the economic and financial framework through which policy makers and investors attempt to catch the social impact values. Keywords Adaptive cities · Public spaces · Social use value · Social impact

1 Introduction In 2020 the World Bank has estimated that the 55% of the world’s population, almost 4.2 billion inhabitants, will live in cities. This trend will continue and it is expected that by 2050, with the urban population doubled, nearly seven out of ten people in the world will live in cities [34]. F. Cadamuro Morgante (B) · A. Oppio Department of Architecture and Urban Studies, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy e-mail: [email protected] A. Oppio e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_6

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Unquestionably, cities will remain the main engine of global economy and the collector poles of human capital. According to Glaeser, only when people live so closely together like in cities innovation thrives and knowledge as well as ideas are freely exchanged [17]. As black swans, major natural disasters resulting from climate and eco-systemic changes, economic inflations and the Covid-19 pandemic have broken out the certainty-based rules of globalization growth [30]. Furthermore, these events have shifted the concern of world governments towards the relationships among density, climate change and pandemic disease in urban environment for resource management and future development [18]. The importance of healthy-spaces to prevent pathologies is not new, but the Covid19 pandemic has strengthened a new sense of “ecology”, thus nudging cities to rethink public spaces and the quality of built environment. In such processes, the notion of Adaptive Cities, based on inhabitants and city users’ needs and expectations, has replaced the one of Smart Cities, essentially focused on technology and innovation [24]. From an evaluation perspective, needs and expectations represent the values that people give to open and public spaces as urban opportunities for the development of individual capabilities [12]. By knowing the value functions [3] underlying people’s behaviour, policies, strategies and actions in favour of public spaces will be more effective [11]. Within this context, the entire real estate value chain, both in private and in public sphere, is crucial for promoting the Adaptive Cities model. On one side, investors increasingly look at sustainability criteria that do not pertain only to environmental preservation and scarce resources distribution, but to the social dimensions. The emerging sensitivity to the ESG criteria is a clear evidence of changes in financial actors’ investment choices [4] and sheds a light on the acceleration towards sustainability issues. On the other side, according to local governments point of view, investing in quality of life would be a benefit both for the inhabitants and for the city users, making communities more attractive for owners and tenants. The aim of the present paper is to stimulate a debate on future opportunities offered by uncertainty and unexpected events for the real estate market with a special attention to social impacts generated by assets with relational values as public spaces. Section 2 deals with the impact of diseases and unpredicted events on cities inhabitants and urban functional systems, with a particular concern to the changes brought by COVID-19 pandemic on real estate market. Then, Sect. 3 focuses on the role played by public spaces in reshaping the urban landscape and encouraging social impacts. Finally, Sect. 4 discusses the role played by evaluation in assessing public spaces’ social values and providing evidence for proactive urban policies and strategies.

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2 Cities and Disease: A Delicate Equilibrium of an Adaptive Transformation of Urban Environment Cities and disease have a long run in the history chronicles. Unpreparedness and forced policies to limit people in movement or isolation have been common strategies to face the virulence since ancient cultures. In the past, the strategies of combating plagues have included sanitary legislation, quarantine, isolation hospitals, sanitary cordons, cleansing, disinfecting and fumigating of private and public spaces, and even burning structures or areas believed to be harbouring the disease [9]. Urban density has been perceived as a propagating factor of plagues and city centres saw depopulation due to the exodus to suburban places, more isolated and healthy, for those who could afford it. While, urbanism as built and social density was considered beneficial to overall public health during the twentieth century with the easier access to more controlled hygienic measures, such as safe water and sewage systems, access to parks, etc. [18]. However, nor the Spanish flue neither the most recent SARS epidemic, the last comparable pandemics that the world experienced, did not have a major impact on the urban development planning logics [19]. Cities that were running development along secure economic growth and solid supply chains ensured by globalized economies and technology incentives proved to be not resilient in front of a new unpredictable global-scale impact. Before the 2020 and the Covid-19 pandemic advent, the urban development perspective was dominated by the paradigm of the Smart Cities. Smart Cities are intended as laboratories for successful sustainable development and a chance to deal with the environmental impact of human activity. More precisely, as clearly claimed by the European Commission: A smart city is a place where traditional networks and services are made more efficient with the use of digital solutions for the benefit of its inhabitants and business. A smart city goes beyond the use of digital technologies for better resource use and less emissions. It means smarter urban transport networks, upgraded water supply and waste disposal facilities and more efficient ways to light and heat buildings. It also means a more interactive and responsive city administration, safer public spaces and meeting the needs of an ageing population. (European Commission, 10)

Thus, urban areas become dynamic hubs of technology and research innovation to support a sustainability model that promote future human growth and a built environment under issues of environmental nature and natural scarce resources distribution. The followed paradigm of sustainability roots in the early 1976 UN Conference on Human Settlements, when governments started perceiving the magnitude and ramifications of rapid urbanization phenomenon [27]. In 2019, were reported about 443 smart projects located in 286 cities in the world [24]. Then, the UN Global Agenda for 2030 has recently brought the urgency for urban sustainability to the foreground by including a goal for inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable cities, stressing more also the social dimension [36].

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The pandemic outbreak in 2020 has brought again the social (physical and mental) health at the forefront, but relating city inhabitants with spatial distribution and efficiency in social capital movement. Into the pandemic period and after three years, in many cities, the relationships of densities and the virulence of COVID-19 have become part of private–public investors and urbanist and have risen planning debates and pragmatic questions around how to re-build cities in the face of the inequities that were revealed in the path of the virus [18]. Not by chance, the pandemic emergency has amplified two density-related urban problems that, even if mitigated by the technology support, has proved to be not sufficient to make the urban environment sustainable: from one side, urban environments would function best if outdoor-life spaces would be connected with appropriate open spaces, namely courtyards or balconies as well as surrounding public spaces, secondly, higher density building type are prone to overcrowding when housing affordability is an issue, as a consequence of proliferating of high-tech quality buildings part of spectacular urban projects in city centre but not socially sustainable at the expense of sub-urban areas [21]. Thus, “destabilization” has fostered new rebirths in cities re-development. The concept of the “Adaptive” city has overtaken the “Smart” one. In this idea of the city, technology plays a transversal role and an enabling factor, but it is not the starting point. What is the core now? Citizens and the city itself. Not by chance, technocentric policy recognised innovation and big data as the main drivers for an improved urban life and, while exasperating these aspects, other factors like the perception of space or the strengthening of local identities were not considered. Various strategies are focusing on the use of human-centered technologies, trying to engage the citizens in planning processes. This term reflects a shift from top-down processes to citizencentered and inclusive cities. Meanwhile, private and public stakeholders and built asset investors look at providing data based services and infrastructures that are contextual design oriented, high impact led and innovation management approaches. But what about changes in citizens’ consumption and recreational behaviours and their relations with built environment interaction and urban policies? In few words, people have experienced deprivation of sociability while living with the social distance imposed by the anti-covid rules and comfortable workplaces, less similar to traditional offices. After the lockdown, even if car transport is still preferred for commuting (because perceived as a safer container than crowded public transport) people has rediscovered external public spaces where they can treat anxiety derived by isolation, socialise and experience recreational activities. Initiatives to raise environmental quality, promote affordable housing or improve public transport will be reconsidered and weighed up. Anyway, supported by digital surveillance and delivery technologies, the city centre transformations will continue and accommodating e-shopping, e-commerce strategies and smart-work modalities in city centres will certainly remain a key policy field of Adaptive city development strategies, considering the general growing trend of logistics buildings infrastructures all over the world [7]. But public spaces will certainly receive more attention [19]. As a matter of fact, public spaces would represent new opportunities for last expressed needs of citizens

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and would have a high social value impact in redistributing urban accessibility and social equalities in the use of cities spaces [6, 8].

3 Post-pandemic Acceleration Towards Quality Public Spaces in Dense Cities As introduced by Sect. 2, public spaces represent a high value impact factor in developing the Adaptive city paradigm. These type of collective assets responds to public body concerns and private real estate market investors and financial actors that want to raise their reputation in the market and to promote a built environment that is environmental, social and governance sides responsible [35]. In the investors sake, it is necessary to inspect current state of art of public spaces and precondition that would generate impact in social dimension. How to bring about innovation through public spaces? And, are current public spaces satisfactory in quality and distribution? After Covid-19 pandemic advent, people have indicated a very strong desire for sociable places but choice of venues have been constrained by the perception of crowdedness and not safe circumstance, thus mitigating affluence to outdoor but commercial type areas for example [2]. Meanwhile, urban settlements and, particularly, big cities with high density built environment have proved unpreparedness to dominate dichotomy of density-efficiency if accomplishing anti-Covid distancing rules [9, 18]. A practical evidence of the theory is given by the Gehl Institute, that released a global opt-in online survey over ten days in April 2020 during the first lockdown experience, fielding 2,023 responses from 40 U.S. states, 68 countries, and every continent [16]. The survey was addressed to understand changes in habits and uses of outdoor spaces of respondents, and, independently from the geographical origin and socioeconomic background of respondents, some common trends were captured. Among those interviewed (n. 1309 considered responses), about 35% of respondents never or hardly left their domicile for fear of contagion and perception of tight like crowded outdoor spaces and sidewalks for social distancing accomplishment. The remaining 65% portion of respondents admitted the need to attend daily (or more than once per day) public spaces to treat mental health, to exercise outdoor and socializing opportunities, and this was particularly true for elder interviewed (over 65-year-old). The most popular venues that the survey registered were neighbourhood sidewalks or streets (87% of respondents), followed by places for essential errands (72% of respondents) and neighbourhood parks (67% of respondents) or domestic courtyards (59% of respondents). However, same respondents underlined “to feel the pinch in everyday spaces” and experience crowding when using these places, in particular, not surprisingly, the 59% or interviewed experienced crowds in

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Fig. 1 Most popular outdoor public spaces used by citizens during the first lockdown in 2020 and their perception of crowding. Source Gehl Institute

venues for essential errands. Figure 1 sums up most popular outdoor public spaces used by citizens during the first lockdown in 2020 and their perception of crowding. Conversely, the pandemic has presented opportunities to make healthy and sustainable ways of getting around and commuting for people. The same Gehl Institute survey echoed these observations, with two thirds or 66% of respondents reporting they were driving less and 59% reporting were using rideshare or taxis less. Among households with a car, the drop was even more significant as the 73% of these interviewed reported driving personal vehicles less and the 70% reported using rideshare or taxis less. Then, in the same period, biking activity rose for the 25% of respondents reporting they used to bike more during the pandemic. But the researchers of Gehl Institute have pointed out the reactions of some respondents to walking or biking experience in urban settlement that felt unsafe for tight spaces and because close to car traffic. Not by chance, sidewalks and bicycle lanes appeared insufficient in number and dimensions, while car tended to travel much faster due to less auto traffic [16]. Neighbourhood sidewalks or streets inadequacy have been the striking paradox of both historic and modern urban spaces with respect to pandemic policies orientedness. Italian cities were the first to experiment the impact of Covid-19 in European world region. Since the beginning of social distancing was the most effective measure applied to prevent and to contain the spread of pandemics and it was evident that

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pedestrian infrastructures did not guarantee a homogeneous level of security with regards to new preventive measures. As it emerges from a recent study on the adaptation strategies of sidewalks in the city of Milan for facing social distancing requirements [28, 29], almost the 45% of pedestrian infrastructure are unappropriated to guarantee social distancing and only the 17% of the share are potentially “adequate” but they are occupied by trees or parking lots (ref. Figs. 2 and 3). Thus, density-space distribution inefficiencies of Milan as well as the reuse of the left-overs spaces for common purposes, like other world cities [16], would deserve major concern in new development planning. It will therefore be necessary to encourage the implementation of wide-scale walkability measures in several areas across the city to ensure a higher urban quality of life [31]. In this sense, walkability is meant as to the potential of the built environment to encourage people walking, through ensuring safe pedestrian movement and encouraging outdoor activities, in other words, walkability represents the combination of spatial factors related

Fig. 2 Sidewalks classification methodology based on section width. Source Systematica

Fig. 3 Mapping of Milan’s sidewalks. Source Systematica

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to the organisation and functionality of the urban system so to allow to expand the possibilities of people to use and act in the city regarding their needs and values [11, 14, 26]. To conclude, in the next challenge to promote the Adaptive city model all involved actors have the opportunity to take advantage from what has been learned until now and to innovate. Innovation is meant both as a social dimension to drive socio-economic-cultural-environmental growth, and as a technical dimension for promoting responsible actions in favour of common goods [32]. Following this paradigm, high value impacts for people can be included into negotiations between private developers and local governments for setting the quality requirements of new open spaces design as well as of the existing ones’ renewal [23]. What is behind challenging is catching these values and measuring impacts to guide conscious strategic choices from different perspectives.

4 How Evaluation Research Field Can Support the Social Impact Value Generation and Measurement for Urban Society and Investors The public spaces have been introduced in previous chapter as Adaptive citiespromoting drivers with high potential social impact. Through pandemic breakout, citizens have rediscovered a sort or “relational” value of public spaces with respect to a sense of place belonging in between the urban quality factors (intrinsic characteristics offered by the built environment) and an instrumental factor directly associated to an individual use of the space (personal utility function). Furthermore, relational values introduce a collective and intangible dimension into decisions about public spaces, that call for specific analytical tools. A first attempt to face the challenge of evaluating the multiples values of public goods has been provided by the notion of “social use value”, firstly defined by Carlo Forte in 1977 to express the potential effects and impacts stemming from public goods, as cultural heritage [15, 20, 25, 13]. Very close to the social use value concept but thinking on developing and strengthening the social capital side, the urban economist Roland Artle argues that in the urban environment it is possible to speak of collective assets relating to the interdependencies and social interactions to which the inhabitants, or in any case all urban users, are subjected to. In the model developed by Artle the individual utility that derives from being part of this network is directly proportional to the growth in the number of users, that increases in turn the potential utility of the network itself. This property has an implicit cumulative value, since each new user makes space more attractive for other users. Thus, the degree of publicness of the asset in question can be interpreted as a dynamic process that expands by feeding itself [1]. Knowing the attractiveness of an asset, like public spaces, is an essential condition for generating impact through interventions, supported by ex-ante evaluation activities being they a part of the overall design process. In other words, evaluation can

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help investors and stakeholders to explore the market and extra-market values at stake and to provide a measure of the differential of value generated by the interventions, as well as its special and social distribution [22]. On these premises, the contribution of evaluation field can have a twofold purpose in supporting policy makers and investors for implementing high social impact developments, thanks to its adaptability as an issue-oriented framework and to the wide availability of hybrid methodologies and evaluation tools. Not by chance, evaluation it not simply a mean to legitimate private/public spending through results, but to address that social value identification by taxonomy and metrics consistent to the triple-nature of impact [5]: purposeful, measurable and additional. The first dimension stresses the importance that impacts should be early stated under a proactive program of activities addressed to the creation of social value. The measurability recalls the qualitative and quantitative identifiable dimensions of the desired impact, having provided a baseline against which to measure also the in itinere and ex-post results. Finally, the additional precondition expresses the availability of financial actors to accept “disproportionate risk-adjusted returns” typical of those areas where markets does not offer expected returns in exchange for a social impact intentionally pursued [32]. This innovative definition of long-time social impact prompts an idea of a progressive evolution typical of the so called Theory of Change approach (ToC). ToC approach helps the many stakeholders involved into the real estate market value chain to describe how and why investment opportunities are supposed to lead to the desired changes and describes the entire process as a sequence of activities and related results [37]. According to a social value impact perspective for urban development, structuring and solving the social problem can be supported by in-time and in-space interactions among policy makers, investors and citizens, making place-based and participative approaches highly demanded. In this direction, evaluation can provide a comprehensiveness support in guiding social impact measurement practices for policymakers and investors by combining quantitative and qualitative, as well as market and non-market based methods [33].

5 Conclusions The present paper enters current debates on adaptive cities as human-centred sustainable environments along the unprecedented impacts brought from Covid-19 pandemic. People are looking for new public spaces more accessible, healthy and less dense while technocentric cities are reorganising their development models. Smart Cities are becoming Adaptive Cities with a wider social impact concern. The pervasive demand for this new type of sustainability integrated with social side is changing political and financial actors that are involved in the redefinition of urban spaces and the built environment following the Environmental, Social and Governance criteria ESG. Ensuring and measuring high social value impact is vital

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for legitimate policy and investments activities, while reaching international Social Development Goals for the 2030 Agenda and ensure an urgent resilient human being growth. Mapping and evaluating the social use values as extra-market characteristics of public spaces is still a challenging issue to be explored in order to predict and monitor impacts able to generate long-term changes. Further research developments will be devoted to define an assessment framework and an evaluation method for the quality of open spaces based on the individual value functions of users, thus providing evidence for policies and strategies design in an adaptive approach.

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Decision Making for Circular Cities

Circularity Above Linearity: Toward a Circular Mining Approach of the Planning for Mining Activities Vanessa Assumma, Marta Bottero, Giulio Mondini, and Elisa Zanetta

Abstract Cities and territories are increasing ever more their attention with respect to circular industrial processes. The extraction of mining resources is one of the first steps in urban and territorial transformations, and it necessitates a step forward, beginning with the use of the entire extracted material. The paper focuses on the emerging concept of circular mining in the context of planning and management for mining activities, and on the role of assessment techniques and tools to explore complex problems through a multidimensional approach as support for the decisionmaking process in the definition of long-term strategies. It also provides an overview of relevant literature and current regulations related to the circular economy and mining. There is a wide range of techniques and tools of environmental assessment and addressed for example to analysis and assessment of environmental impact, the assessment of the most sustainable scenario, or the plan monitoring and management. The paper illustrates the case of the ongoing Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the Regional Plan for Mining Activities (PRAE) of the Piedmont Region (Italy) and the plan issue of incorporating the circularity paradigm. A more sustainable planning and management of the mining sector is a promising challenge to renovate economic growth and development, and also to promote the adaptation of the city and its territory towards circularity. In this way, it will be feasible to provide a more sustainable future for future generations by taking care of the Earth’s resources and reserves.

V. Assumma (B) · M. Bottero · G. Mondini · E. Zanetta Interuniversity Department of Regional and Urban Studies and Planning, Politecnico di Torino, Viale Mattioli 39, 10125 Turin, Italy e-mail: [email protected] M. Bottero e-mail: [email protected] G. Mondini e-mail: [email protected] E. Zanetta e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_7

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Keywords Circular mining · Mining activities · Sustainable development · Strategic environmental assessment · Decision-making process

1 Introduction The current economic system is the result of the growth and development over the last 150 years, which traduce itself in the extraction of primary resources, massive consumption, and waste production. Technology is rapidly transforming the production process, as well as all aspects of human life, with products smarter and more innovative. The demand for materials is constantly increasing, but availability is becoming difficult, on the one hand, due to the slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and on the other due to the progressive exhaustion of resources. Consequently, this is weighing on the citizens’ income in the purchase of goods and services. On the other side, a rapid and progressive shrinking of resources/reserves is happening. There is an urgent need to mantain the security margins of the Earth and avoid an irreversible change [39]. The worrying predictions as an increase in global temperatures [24] and the need to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their targets by 2030 have solicited a change of paradigm, especially at both political and economic levels: from a life cycle of products “cradle-to-grave” to a life cycle based on “cradle-to-cradle” [32]. The circular economy is remarkably increasing its importance as the new basement of the global economic system. It is gradually replacing the linearity that has dominated for far too long and caused serious damages to the environment. Because everything around us comes from the Earth, the economic trend cannot be based solely on economic parameters (e.g. Gross Domestic Product, GDP). Future urban and territorial transformations must be marked by more responsible use of primary resources in favor of secondary materials, as well as “renovated” urban standards able to mirror the needs of both present and next generations. A circular economy “is based on the principles of designing out waste and pollution, keeping products and materials in use, and regenerating natural systems” [18]. The circular model has different purposes: (i) it considers the production activity by assessing the benefits that derive from the growth, and also the environmental impact caused by the transformation of primary resources (i.e. green economy); (ii) it is addressed to establish a balanced relationship between human beings and nature, with particular regard to ecological features (i.e. de-growth economy); (iii) it is finalized to the zeroing of CO2 emissions, through scientific techniques that employ the biomimicry (i.e. blue economy). The concept of circular economy (CE) is not entirely new [9]: in the XVIIIth century, H. C. von Carlowitz, stated with his essay “Sylvicultura aeconomica” (1713) the need to manage responsibly natural resources, whereas T. Malthus affirmed in his work “Principle of population” (1798) the demographic increase would have reduced the capacity for self-regenerating of the Earth. In the second half of the XXth century, the Club di Roma published the Report «I limiti dello sviluppo» (1972) where the

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issue of the scarcity of resources was discussed and highlighting the urgency in taking a shared and global decision to prevent unbalances between economic development and environmental thresholds. W. R. Stahel and G. Reday introduced in the Report “The Potential for Substituting Manpower for Energy” (1976) the first definition of the circular economy. In those decades, the concept of sustainable development was generated and then consolidated with the Brundtland Report (1987). Today, the fundamental principles of circular economy inspire the building of the vision of plans, programs and projects all over the world [18]: • Preserve and increase natural capital by controlling limited stocks and balancing the flow of renewable resources; • Optimize the yield of resources through the circulation of products, components and materials to the maximum utility at all times in both technical and biological cycles; • Encourage the effectiveness of the system by revealing and eliminating negative externalities. Circular economy was adopted in many economic sectors, from the packaging to the production of objects of daily use, or electrical and electronic devices, among others. Despite the vast debate, the circular economy is landed only recently in the building industry to support urban regeneration and adaptive reuse initiatives. In the context of the NextGeneration EU program and the new cohesion policy 2021–2027, the Italian National Plan of Recovery and Resilience (PNRR) is a great opportunity to restart, especially with respect to the uncertainty and ambiguity caused in the last biennial, and favor future transformations with the care of real needs of citizens, recognized and/or forgotten. Considering this scenario, a spontaneous and practical question is raised: “how is it possible to reconcile environmental protection, social equity, and development?” [32]. The problem cannot be exclusively reconducted to the mere consumption and the economic activities, but also to the “myopic” design. This means that the resources employed in the production process are safely re-entered in the environment, or they are included in close cycles, according to the approach to the growth “cradle-tocradle”. Then, it is possible to reach the contemporary definition of circular economy as “[…] a generic term to define an economy designed to be able to regenerate itself. In an economy, the flows of materials are of two types: the biological ones, capable of being reintegrated into the biosphere, and the technical ones, destined to be reorganized without entering the biosphere” [18]. In the mining industry, the application of the concept of circular economy to the treatment of waste building materials is even more recent. The mining sector is one of the most important components for the overall trend economy in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for a certain region and/or country. Although the important role for the economic development and the competitiveness of a territory, mining activities are very impacting on the environment during and after their lifecycle. Amidst the several impacts on the environment water pollution, acid drainage and soil erosion cause a loss of soil ecosystem services (ES), such as carbon sequestration, habitat quality, or water yeld, among others [4, 7], and when these enter in synergy

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cause further negative impacts. Starting with the extraction of mineral raw materials and the reintegration of waste materials into the production cycle, the implementation of circular solutions can aid planning in becoming more sustainable and transparent (e.g. recovery of inert materials, or sawing mud, among others). This paper would reflect on the following research questions: • Is it possible to ensure a circular extraction of materials? • Is it necessary to focus more on product innovation or process innovation? • What is the role of evaluation? How can it help end users in the mining sector transition towards sustainability and circularity? The paper is structured into the following sections: Sect. 2 builds a literature review on the concept of circular economy and on the adaptation of this paradigm to the mining sector, as well as to urban and territorial transformations. The section focuses also on evaluation tools and techniques evaluation that can help Decision Makers (DMs), planners, and other specialized bodies in undertaking the circular transition of the mining activities; Sect. 3 describes a real case study of evaluation, which is the ongoing process of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the Regional Plan of Mining Activities (PRAE) of the Piedmont Region1 ; the last section provides some conclusive reflections as input for future research directions related to the mining sector.

2 Literature Review The exploration of the concept of circular mining through multidimensional approaches to support procedures of strategic environmental impact assessment constitutes a recent line of research, which answers to the decision-making need of defining a circular strategy in an economic sector that is important and impacting at the same time. To encourage the adaptation of cities and territories to the circularity principle, it might be useful to start from the idea that a primary requirement is the use of the materials for their maintenance and transformation. This implies that the relationship between the circular city and circular mining must be indissoluble. A review of the scientific literature is presented below, where a rising and recent interest in the field of circular mining has emerged. Furthermore, an overview on the normative in force is provided, from the European to the regional levels, which confirms the relevance of this issue and the urgency highlighted at all government levels to act and move beyond words.

1

The authors of the papers are members of the research group of the Politecnico di Torino, DIST Department (Scientific Coordinator: Prof. G. Mondini) and they are currently involved in the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the Piedmont’s Regional Plan for Mining Activities (PRAE).

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2.1 Circular Mining and Circular City: An Inseparable Duo Circular mining is a concept adapted from the circular economy that takes hold over the last years in the mining sector. This concept matured from the recognition of the scarcity of natural resources, as well as the urgent need for a more sustainable management of recycling and reintegration materials into the market, from the supply of planning of new generation, more homogeneous and transparent towards the principles of sustainability and resiliency. The re-use of materials transforms the characteristics of a site in relation to the context in which is located. This favors the extension of the life cycle of buildings, favoring the reduction or the dispersion of resources, the preservation of materials and of the intrinsic energy of structures. This process was applied for centuries to renovate building heritage and mitigating the obsolescence of architectural and urban context [14]: from the Roman to Middle Ages, from the Renaissance to the Age of Enlightenment, or related to specific events, such as the French Revolution, among others. The building of infrastructures for urban services according to a logic of reuse of materials is the basis of the concept of the Green Public Procurement (GPP) [6]. According to the urban mining theory, the recovery of secondary raw materials should be seen as the potential of getting resources utilizing urban waste, as a cycle of material recovery and reuse in the production process. This is a key issue for cities as they develop increasingly circular policies [23]. The circular city must guarantee its functions as a regenerative urban system. In detail, it must generate wealth, increase liveability and its resilience, moving away from the creation of value from the consumption of finite resources. Furthermore, the circular city assumes the following aspects as its main axes: (i) no to the diffuse city; (ii) Circular design; (iii) Mobility and connections; (iv) Products, material flows: non-waste; (v) New models of administration. If the idea of the future city is getting closer to the circular and resilient cities, this seems to distance itself from the model of the Smart City, which is of a techno-centric type. With regard to circular design, innovative and intelligent technologies can dialogue with environmental, economic and social sustainability, while bearing in mind that the constituent elements of technological devices are made with rare-earth elements [16]. On the one hand, the speed of technological advance favors numerous advantages, by contrast, it contributes to make rapidly obsolete technologies and thus resulting in waste. This same reasoning can be adapted to the building sector. A durable and, at the same time, temporary construction adapts to different demands and lifestyles, to emergency circumstances, as well as to the disposal of building materials in landfills. A change in land use does not imply necessarily the demolition of a certain building might aid in the achievement of a balance between preservation and transformability [14, 30].

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38 36 30 18 15

9

8 1

1

2

3

2013

2014

2015

2016

15

15

1

5 4 1

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

circular economy and circular city circular economy and circular mining circular economy and urban mining circular economy, urban mining and circular mining

Fig. 1 Trend of the relevant literature in circular mining (Scopus, Accessed April 2022)

Figure 1 illustrates the trend of relevant literature in the field of circular and urban mining. The literature review was developed through SCOPUS database by Elsevier (www.scopus.com) and by selecting the following keywords and combinations: “circular economy” AND “circular mining” = 1 “circular economy” AND “circular city” = 81 “circular economy” AND “urban mining” = 119 “circular economy” AND “urban mining” AND “mining activities” = 2

The SCOPUS search has provided a total of 81 contributions for “circular economy” and “circular city”, 119 contributions when “circular economy” and “urban mining” are included. They reduce to one contribution when the keyword “circular mining” is included in the search and two contributions when the keyword “mining activities” is considered. This could mean that nowadays is not yet so consolidated the relationship between circular mining and urban and the “urban mines”. In this sense, this may carry a high margin of developments for the research in the future. Table 1 provides a screening of the most representatives contributions. Table 2 lists the normative in force that regulates the discipline of circular economy and its receipt at regional level, with particular regard to Italian context and Piedmont Region.

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Table 1 Literature review on circular and urban mining Author, year

Description

Type of material

[28]

Set of MFA indicators for modeling mineral resource flow to mining operations and test on a real case study interested by two mining reprocessing projects

Mineralized waste

[36]

Experience of Trento community on high level selective collection and waste treatment systemization

Urban mining

[26]

Development of a survey to real mining companies about the recovery of metals from tailings, highlighting drivers and potential opportunities

Tailings

[43]

Review of the main CE solutions for e-waste and classification of mineral materials for urban mining procedures

Urban e-waste

[2]

Methodological framework to estimate Building components urban mining, recycle and reuse building materials and components

[3]

New urban mining strategy to support municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI)

Municipal solid waste inceneritor (MSWI)

[21]

Assessment of the CE transition in Italy considering a group of organizations, also focusing on cooperation strategies between the involved organizations

Municipal waste

[29]

Conceptual framework to assess and report of resource deposits and flows, in the context of COST action mining the European anthroposphere (MINEA)

Raw materials, municipal solid waste inceneritor (MSWI)

[40]

Overview on legislative frameworks and Waste deposits in water stream certification schemes to verify the implications water policy on mining operations

[34]

E-waste estimation generation in India by combining market supply method combined with substance flow analysis with a focus on critical raw materials and their recovery economic potential

Critical raw material e-waste

[41]

GIS-based material intensity database based on Dutch building stock demolition projects in order to support the analysis of stocks and flows of built environment

Industrial ecology material flow analysis

(continued)

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Table 1 (continued) Author, year

Description

Type of material

[42]

Dynamic stock modelling for assessing alternative scenarios for a low-carbon electricity system and for understanding how these affects the potential for urban mining of metals

Material flow analysis

Table 2 Multi-scale normative framework in force on circular economy Normatives

Description

Scale

Directive 2018/849 EU

Waste electrical and electronic equipment and end-of-life vehicles

European

Directive 2018/850 EU

Landfills of waste

European

Directive 2018/851 EU

Packaging and packaging waste

European

Green deal (2020)

Action plan for circular economy

European

Integrative measures for the action plan for circular economy (2021) National law no. 221/2015 and update with ministerial decree no. 63/2020

Green economy and minimum environmental criteria (CAM) “Provisions in environmental matters to promote green economy measures and to contain the excessive use of natural resources”

National

Legislative decree 3 September 2020, no. 116

EU directive implementation 2018/851 amending directive 2008/98/EC on waste and implementation of directive (EU) 2018/852 amending directive 1994/62/EC on packaging and packaging waste

National

Legislative decree 3 September 2020, no. 119

Amendment of directive 2000/53/EC on end-of-life vehicles

National

Legislative decree 3 September 2020, no. 121

Implementation of directive (EU) 2018/850, which amends directive 1999/31/EC on landfills of waste

National

D.G.R. 16 May 2019, no. 98–9007

The piedmont region has adopted the Regional circular economy model, making it central in the planning of its activities in the perspective of 2030

D.G.R. 7 August 2020, no. 33–1855

Programmatic document and document of Regional specification of the contents of the environmental report for the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of the regional plan of mining activities (PRAE)

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2.2 Assessment Techniques and Tools for Circular Solutions The assessment of environmental impact can certainly favor the orientation of policies and actions towards environmental compatibility and also circularity. Table 3 illustrates a range of techniques and tools capable of supporting both the strategic and environmental impact assessment and the planning process through an integrated approach [12, 33]. For example, the SWOT Analysis returns an overview of the city/territory being assessed, identifying aspects of value, pressure, but also positive and negative aspects of uncertainty. Its dynamic extension allows to relate the different aspects of SWOT to represent the existing interdependencies of complex problems. The assessment of environmental impact can favor surely the orientation of policies and actions toward environmental compatibility and also circularity. For example, the SWOT Analysis provides an overview of the urban and territorial system under investigation, focusing on the values, pressures, as well as positive and negative features of uncertainty. Its dynamic extension allows to relate the several aspects identified in the SWOT Analysis and highlight the existing interdependences that are typical of complex problems [8]. This can be employed in the ex-ante, in-itinere and ex-post phase of the assessment process as reliable support for the building of alternative scenarios [10], starting from the identification of potential strategies and actions oriented towards circularity and defined by a time horizon. The family of techniques of Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can contribute to the assessment of alternative planning scenarios, according to defined criteria that derive from relevant literature, knowledge analysis of the case study, or geodatabase, GIS-based suitability maps, among others [13, 33]. The MCDA can include the interests, preferences of the actors and stakeholders engaged in the process and allow the building of a shared vision for the building of a given plan/program/project (PPP) [22]. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a method Table 3 Range of suitable techniques and tools to be employed within environmental assessment procedures [12] Assessment techniques

Strategic environmental impact assessment phases Ex-ante

In-itinere

Partecipatory process

Stakeholders analysis

X

Analysis and mapping

Spatial GIS mapping

X

SWOT analysis

X

X

Scenario evaluation

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA)

X

X

Impacts evaluation

Life cycle assessment (LCA)

X

Consistency matrix Monitoring

DPSIR model

Ex-post

X X

X X X

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structured and recognized at international level and it analyses the life cycle of materials, from material processing to transportation, from construction to demolition, thus favoring the quantification of the potential impact on the environment and human health [19, 35]. The DPSIR model stands for “Driving forces, Pressures, State of the Environment, Impact and Response” and was proposed by the Organization for the Cooperation and the Economic Development (OECD) in the early ‘90s as a tool of analysis that considers socio-economic and environmental features for the sustainability assessment. The efficacy of the DPSIR model for a given PPP requires the support of a set of indicators and indices to measure the performance of the several environmental components and thus focusing on the relations cause-effects by environmental degradation. This model is usually employed in the ex-post phase of the assessment process and allows the refinement of specific actions, as well as to monitor the performance of a PPP as achievement of objectives of sustainability, resiliency, and/or circularity. The matrices of environmental impact are bi-dimensional models finalized to identify the many effects generated by anthropogenic activities and especially coming from the PPP actions on the environment and its components (Leopold et al. 1971). The so-called Leopold matrix is used for example during the scoping step of the SEA, or in the control phase of the EIA. Table 3 illustrates a range of techniques and tools able to support the process of strategic assessment and of environmental impact through an integrated approach.

3 Circular Mining: From the Theory to the Practice 3.1 The SEA of the Regional Plan on Mining Activities of Piedmont (Italy) The model based on circular economy is shared at the international level today. The European Commission recognized the whole applicability in the context of mining activities. For example, the recovery of the mining sites is aligned with the approach of the circular economy that may carry, on the one hand, to a decrease of the costs for the waste disposal in landfills, and on the other hand, to the reduction of the consumption of raw materials. On the basis of the partnership proposal shared at the national level [27], for a more sustainable treatment of raw materials, according to the EU guidelines [20], the implementation of the circular economy applied to the non-energetic raw materials sector passes through the analysis of opportunities to be incentivized, within the supply chain, in terms of valorisation and recycling of residuals, waste produced and the reuse of substitutive materials deriving from other processes. The paper illustrates as a case study the Regional Plan for Mining Activities (PRAE) of Piedmont Region (Italy), finalized to plan the mining activities in the territory according to three mining compartments, which are (i) industrial materials,

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(ii) aggregates and (iii) ornamental stones, following the Regional Law of Piedmont no. 23/2016. This law includes the concept of circular economy with the aim to orient future planning towards the extraction and recycling of materials. The PRAE is the main framework for mining activities and it is closely connected with the Basin planning and the European Directives on Floods and Water receipt in the National Legislative Decree no. 152/2006. The Piedmont carries out the planning through the adoption of the PRAE and detains the role of Mining Police through its Regional Department, releases authorizations for certain types of quarries research permits and mining concessions for solid minerals. The aims of the PRAE are based on four priority axes [37]: (i) Orientation of the mining activity towards the equilibrium and optimization of industrial production for recovery, requalification of degraded and abandoned sites; (ii) Containment of land consumption, through the recycling of waste materials, use of recovered aggregates and incentives for the use of alternative materials; (iii) Protection and enhancement of the mining heritage of quarries and mines; (iv) Improve safety in the activities of professionals (Prevention). At the end of 2018, the Piedmont Region has recorded 86 quarries and mining activities in the Turin metropolitan area: 66% of the quarries produce aggregates, 30% are finalized to ornamental stones and only 4% are dedicated to industrial materials. Most of the quarries and activities are located mainly in the provincial area of Turin and Cuneo [38]. From the point of view of the trend in demand, the strong connections between the mining activities and the user sectors have led to the prediction of a picture of stagnation and contraction [25, 31]. The PRAE is currently undergoing a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In line with the key principles of sustainability and the circular economy, the PRAE sets itself the goal of increasing the use of “secondary raw materials”. The aim is to safeguard the deposits from excessive or improper use and, at the same time, increase the sustainability of the environmental system, promoting the use of alternative materials. From an evaluation point of view, the Plan development process is supported by specific methods, including the MCDA [5] to assess the alternative planning scenarios of the PRAE, and the DPSIR model to measure the environmental compatibility of the actions in the SEA monitoring stage [37].

4 Conclusions This paper focused on the emerging concept of circular mining as an opportunity to reflect on future urban and territorial transformations, as well as on integrated assessment methods to support the decision-making process in the planning and management of mining activities. Despite the importance of this debate, today there are still few applications and good practices on international and national scenarios. Despite the consensus to reduce the consumption of primary resources for sustainable development and the adoption of circular economic models, primary metals will still be in demand from the market, including the transition phase from the linearity towards the circularity of the next future. It is still premature to think that recycled

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products at the end-life can completely replace the extraction process [1]. Excluding the extractive sector from the Circular Economy would result in the economic and technical loss of the recovery of minerals, especially rare ones, the failure to open new extraction sites, the loss of the opportunity to face and remedy some of the past mining activities [28]. The PRAE of the Piedmont Region is certainly an opportunity to practice the principles of the circular economy, and many other regions are moving in the same direction (e.g. Regional Plan of Quarries of Toscana Region), with greater sensitivity towards ecosystem services, land take, resilience and energy transition [11, 15, 17]. As a future perspective, the techniques and tools previously explained will be operationalised in an integrated framework [33] to tackle the sustainable planning and management of mining activities and thus promoting the evolution of the cities and territories towards a circular model. A more sustainable planning and management of mining activities represent a promising challenge not only for the national and regional economy but above all to favor the evolution of the city and the territory towards a circular model. In this way, it will be possible to guarantee future generations a more sustainable and attentive future to the resources/reserves of the Earth. Acknowledgements Part of this work was developed within the research collaboration for the Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Regional Plan for Mining Activities of Piedmont (Scientific Coordinator: Prof. Giulio Mondini), which has been supported by the Interuniversity Department of Regional and Urban Studies and Planning—DIST, Politecnico di Torino.

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Environmental Impact of Transportation Infrastructures: Integrated Methodologies for Preliminary Assessment. A Case-Study Alessio D’Auria, Gerardo Maria Cennamo, and Irina Di Ruocco

Abstract The assessment of environmental sustainability of transport infrastructures is a particularly complex and significant theme, characterized by multiscalarity and multidimensionality. The paper intends to illustrate a recent experience of preliminary assessment referring to an infrastructure project for the Local Public Transportation (LPT) and the related urban projects, and functionalization works (squares, underpasses, bridges, etc.) to be carried out in the municipality of Pompeii, in province of Naples. Starting from a theoretical framework on the links between transport infrastructures and land use planning, the paper illustrates the operating procedures for the preliminary assessment carried out through a multi-level analysis that has considered the intensity, scale, probability and finally the reversibility of the impacts, also identifying the necessary mitigations. Finally, it proposes a reflection on the increasingly mentioned need to engage and correctly inform citizens in all phases of the environmental assessment of infrastructure interventions in the territory. Keywords Preliminary assessment · Environmental assessment · Impact chain · Local public transportation · Land use planning

1 Introduction: Relationships Between Sustainable Infrastructures and Land Use Planning Transportation infrastructure is a primary component for the socio-economic development of territories and is the subject of analysis on improving its sustainability, A. D’Auria (B) Università Suor Orsola Benincasa, Naples, Italy e-mail: [email protected] G. M. Cennamo Università Telematica Internazionale UNINETTUNO, Rome, Italy e-mail: [email protected] I. Di Ruocco Università dell’Insubria, Varese, Italy e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_8

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since the first consideration of transport sustainability in 1991 with Agenda 2021, in 2015 with Agenda 2030 [1]. Thus, the definition of sustainable transport in the environmental model has become to be integrated in several SDGs and goals (sdgs.un.org/2030agenda), especially those related to infrastructure, and cities and human settlements such as SDG no. 11 “Making Cities and Human Settlements Inclusive, Safe, Resilient, and Sustainable,” highlighting the importance of transportation to climate action called for in the Paris Agreement [1]. There are several notions today in sustainable transportation, and it is complex to give a single definition when talking about transportation infrastructure especially when discussing community infrastructure and works. In fact, there is no single concept of sustainability both for its evolution and for the constant enrichment of the sectors and their transversality, but first of all transport sustainability can be considered as the first objective to support the mobility needs of users in a way that is the least harmful to the environment and humans. Recent years have seen a growing awareness of sustainability as the integration of infrastructure into land use and transportation planning (LUT) becoming a crucial prerequisite for the transition [9] to more sustainable transport patterns and urban development that promotes interaction between people while reducing negative environmental and climate effects [2]. In recent decades, the debate on how to sustain urban mobility has accelerated. Transportation decision-making, beginning to improve sector policies [3, 4] has reflected more on issues of sustainability and quality of life in cities, this process has accelerated especially with the setting of modern urban mobility planning concepts, essentially focused on the regulation and management of transport demand. This emphasizes the need to talk about sustainability, which is the measure of reducing the impacts of works but providing a green legacy for generations, families and citizens living in urban areas. How transportation affects sustainability is still being studied and it is still known how it affects the quality of life in cities [5, 6]. Above all, nowadays sustainable transportation means focusing mainly on urban areas as they have to deal with air pollution, noise, congestion, occupation of public space by traffic due to high concentration of population in cities, increase of activities in the metropolitan area, taking into account extreme factors such as mortality rate caused by increase of traffic accidents and pollution [7]. Population growth is at the centre of the sustainability discussion, where it is critical to provide all citizens with the right to mobility, but at the same time governments and policies must be directed in strengthening the existing transportation network and incentivizing the use of green mobility between suburban and urban areas. Urban areas are many, and in the paper, it will be the object of the analysis to analyse urban areas in a suburban context, with the aim of strengthening the transport network to provide adequate supply to demand and imply the decrease of car use levels, in accordance with the main policies from urban transport to sustainable environment [8, 9, 10]. In addition, emission levels are growing rapidly and are projected to double globally by 2050 [11]. These negative effects of transportation have an unequal impact on society and its municipalities, with accidents and air pollution particularly burdening the most disadvantaged groups of citizens, reducing the propensity to use infrastructure where mobility injustice spreads among users [12].

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Thus, the shift towards more sustainable environmental transportation is influenced by policy inefficiencies that still favour the car, lack of public, and thus political, support for change, and high perceived costs [13, 14]. Although the concept of sustainability has also become part of a policy discourse on sustainable transport at local and regional levels [15], and some positive trends towards sustainability can be traced in cities in recent years [16], sustainable urban mobility remains one of the unresolved topical concerns [17]. The transformation towards sustainable mobility requires a paradigm shift in transportation planning. A sustainability planning process must be comprehensive and integrated, considering all significant goals, impacts, and options. Analysis of the definitions of sustainable transport system, includes the evaluation of a definition of environmental sustainability indicators [18], remembering that in the transport system and environmental impact assessment [19, 20] indicators for transportation in smart cities that can help formulate improvements in the definition of sustainability facilitate sustainable development of the transport system [21]. It is generally agreed that the quest for sustainable development is to promote community benefits, limiting land use, and proposing measures towards the unmeasured growth of metropolitan cities, which are extremely urbanized. For the past few years, sustainability has been focusing on urban areas, to the extent of understanding how the redevelopment of existing infrastructure, promoted at the national level by the programs promoted by Programs for urban regeneration and sustainable land development (PRUSST)”, Fund for local government planning (https://www. mit.gov.it) [22]. The new infrastructures have the objective of not causing negative externalities on the inhabitants but can promote their quality of life by encouraging intermodality in urban and peripheral areas. A key point to operate a sustainable infrastructure is the connection with the works in the urban area and the weight on the environment [23]. Many cities have a shortage of infrastructure and, both with the current funds of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and with funds made available by the Italian Ministry of Transport, new infrastructure has been built in the Italian territory or rehabilitated degraded infrastructure, in which attention to the environment is declined with the modal shift towards the use of iron (rail care) to promote travel by train and metro, and reduce congestion and the use of private vehicles (cars, motorcycles) [24]. Talking about sustainability, leads to focus on sociological factors of infrastructure design, representing a current issue throughout Europe and Italy, as evidenced by the numerous indications regarding the introduction of sustainability of transport infrastructure [25] transposed in the “Division II of the Directorate General for Climate and Energy by the Italian Ministry of Transport with Ministerial Decree No. 8 of January 19, 2015). It is mainly through sustainability and energy efficiency that it is possible to reduce pollution and improve connectivity between territories suggested by the analysis of environmental indicators [26, 27]. A key objective is to improve our understanding of the sustainable development of transport systems is to analyse the relationship of intermodality in urban areas,

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such as the promotion of Eu Roadmap promoted by COM in 2011 in the communication of the European Commission ‘Energy roadmap 2050’ (https://ec.europa.eu/) [27, 28]. The sustainability of infrastructure therefore includes several factors: economic, collective, environmental. Ensuring the economic sustainability of the works translates into the financial maintenance in progress and tariff insurance for users. Transport must be economic and able to adapt to changing demand and from the social point of view, capable of satisfying the accessibility of the territories and a quality of life for citizens who use the infrastructure and citizens who live near it with noise reduction, reduction of motorization, congestion. In addition, making sure that it is environmentally sustainable means implementing environmental sustainability according to current Italian legislation that establishes that interventions and infrastructures (road and rail) must undergo the environmental impact assessment procedure. The Decree of the President of the Council of Ministers of 27/12/1988 and subsequent amendments in the field of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA and SEA) provides that the projects of the works fall into various categories including railways, highways and roads. The Italian legislation (transposition of the European Directive 2001/42/Ce) establishes that infrastructures have impacts that involve the territory according to the main components: atmosphere, soil, water, landscape, vegetation, ecosystems and public health, noise and vibrations, radiation. The (EEA/VAS), as a procedure, applies to plans and programs that provide for the construction or evaluation of infrastructure. Even though much evidence points to the environmental destructiveness of cities implementing new infrastructure [29], it is generally claimed that cities are our most sustainable settlement option to start to develop good practices for sustainability. Urban areas are place where spatial form of the city is critical for being sustainable, due to main factors aforementioned as pollution and more, clarifying the role of transportation of country [30]. Although many constraints, transportation is critical, primarily to meet the heterogeneity of the area and activities. This is even more so because of the existence of economies of scale. In addition to these production-related reasons, there are reasons related to personal travel. Travel is necessary for social interaction with friends and family, for activities such as recreation, culture, and sports, and also for work (commuting), given the desire to separate work from residential activities. These reasons make it clear that the demand for transportation has become increasingly fragmented in both space and time, and that transportation serves a wide range of needs of people and businesses. Thus, transportation is strongly linked to activities in other areas of consumption, production, and land use, implying that solutions to transportation problems must be sought not only in the transportation sector itself, but also in these other sectors [31]. Transportation sector decisions affect almost all aspects of human life, such as mobility, health, safety, cost of living, economic opportunities, working and leisure conditions, etc. [32]. In the practical context, the technical and economic feasibility of infrastructure is a method to identify alternatives and the best solution considering the benefits of the community [33], making use of the SEA process, which is also includes several

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steps such as screening, EIA, which tries to solve the thorny issue of infrastructure sustainability that still has quite divergent opinions. The technological development of transport, the growth of income, and the increase in competition between suppliers, have certainly contributed to the increase in the quality of transport. In this context it should be underlined that still the Italian transport infrastructures have a quality index (including accessibility, safety, travel) quite far from an optimal value required [9]. Certainly, the intensification of infrastructures is not the solution to the improvement of connections, especially if infrastructures still lack intermodality. In fact, sustainable transport also means creating an intermodal interchange to allow multiple transport modes to operate [31].

2 Materials and Methods 2.1 Territorial Framework The Province of Naples is an area that has one of the highest demographic densities in Europe (over 2600 inhabitants/km2 ); air pollution data between the worst in Italy, with peaks of concentration of PM10 over 3 times higher than the legal limits; an obsolete and oversized circulating car park (almost 600 of cars and motor vehicles every 1000 inhabitants); areas of particular landscaped and environmental value; high density and dissemination of cultural heritage. Pompeii (a city of just under 25,000 inhabitants and about 12 km2 ), in addition to these features, is part of a large conurbation improved by preeminent archaeological, cultural and landscape values. The ancient city, as is well known, is under the UNESCO protection and includes one of the best archaeological areas in all the world, visited by more than 3 million tourist each year. The general conditions, therefore, presents a context with all the value elements on the top positions, got in position in the high proportions or, better, to the limits that can be hypothesized for homogeneous characteristics. The main reference is to the presence of a very relevant archaeological heritage, to the significant stratification of a large historical plants, to a superlative landscape developed around Vesuvius volcano and, conversely, is to an anthropic and demographic weight unsustainable, to a very intense commercial traffic, on road and railways. The set of these conditions determine evident elements harbinger of urban and social contradiction which confer, to this urban area not large if compared to those of an average European city, a character of big fragility for which it is essential to activate the better preservation strategies for its past and the stronger deeds to valorise its contemporary. The eastern and southern area of the Naples metropolitan area is served by the Circumvesuviana, a network of railway lines extending for 142 km, distributed over 6

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Fig. 1 The railway line from Naples (A) to Pompeii (B) continuing to Sorrento

lines and 97 stations. Pompeii is served by two different lines. One of the most important and crowded stations is “Pompeii Sanctuary” station, object of the refurbishment project here analysed (Fig. 1).

2.2 Case-Study Description Environmental assessments of city and territorial tracks burdened by an extremely heterogeneous characterization, comprising both valuable and obvious endogenic criticalities, are based on a cognitive system the most in-depth and on a set of analysis that must necessarily have to consider also account of urbanistic, architectural-landscape-like evaluations as well as economic issues. In the case of Pompeii, downstream the study of a vast literature, were carried out many on-site characterizations both some project verification activities, in particular about the planning with the greatest impact for the environmental characteristics. In these conditions, the approach to the studies was necessarily multidisciplinary, as the

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density and the overlapping of specialist topics pertaining to different areas, gives to Pompeii a character of unicum. The environmental characterisation was supported, therefore, by the integration of urban and architectural surveys in order to simulate the process interactions on multiple plans and the evaluations about the compensation actions were shared with those about the cost/benefit falling on the territory. The case-study focus the issues of preliminary assessment study, developed for a project that is nominally of infrastructural typology. The project, due to the unique features of integration and overlapping typical of the Pompeii territory, broadened itself as an articulated project proposal that intervenes not only on the infrastructural system inside the urban perimeter but also about the architectures, the public spaces, and the streets. A complex project, therefore, called “Urban compatibility of the railway line of the Municipality of Pompeii” is a prelude to the double need to make the rail traffic passing through the urban perimeter smoother and, at the same time, to make safer pedestrian and vehicular crossings. This project in Pompeii includes a series of planning solutions aimed at improving existing infrastructures, to solve the problem represented by the railway line which divides the urban territory into two parts, creating inconvenience to the vehicular and pedestrian viability. The project is being carried out through several underpasses to replace and partially integrate four level crossings still present today in the city of Pompeii. In addition, some solutions towards urban integration are planned with the building of some new connecting axes, new infrastructures, and new points of interest. The need to integrate the various project areas is also highlighted in the refurbishment of the Pompeii Sanctuary station and the neighbouring access roads, inserted close to the most important square of Pompeii, lightened by the weight of vehicular traffic thanks to the construction of a cycle path that develops adjacent to the new road axis. The solutions planned in the project does not concern just the replacement of level crossings and the planned completion and compatibility works; it also includes works aimed at proposing a new urban and architectural configuration to some of the city places burdened by the greatest criticalities. The “underground square”, for example, is a recessed open space under the street level, a sort of cavea that engages an area resulting from the demolition of some buildings. A space under the square, planned like a new urban environment, will be returned to the daily use of the community (Figs. 2 and 3).

2.3 Assessment Methodology To the preliminary assessment phase belong, following the definitions of international literature, the functions of screening and scoping, normatively framed by Annex IV of Legislative Decree n.152/2006 of Italian Law. The screening phase allows to identify the appropriate procedures and the levels of detail of further assessment phase, based on specific project parameters and the

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Fig. 2 Pompeii urban perimeter with the intervention scheme (ideogram)

sensitivity factors of the areas; the scoping identifies the informative reference framework for the identification of the potential significant impacts of the project on the environment. The methodological approach used for the evaluation of the environmental impacts of the study case was developed on the Impact Chain model, which is divided into concatenated assessment matrices. This model has been usually utilized for Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) rather than in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). As LCA is a specific elaboration of a generic environmental evaluation framework and EIA is a procedure rather than a tool, typical LCA methods and models certainly may be useful [34, 35].

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Fig. 3 Project details: 1—Three levels garage in via Fucci. 2—Pedestrian underpass with underground square in Via Nolana. 3—Pompei Sanctuary railway station North access with underpass connecting to the Sanctuary area. 4.a—Pompei Sanctuary station Redevelopment. 4.b—Pedestrian overpass demolition. 5—new pedestrian area. 6—Delocalization and rebuilding. 7—Via Crapolla new pedestrian underpass. 8—Bike path. 9—New Chapel. 10—Building renovation

As part of the environmental preliminary study, it is necessary to analyze the territorial and environmental content in depth in which the project intervention will be established, in order to be able to assess the interference associated with the realization, the foreseeable evolutions of environmental factors and changes of preexisting quality levels of the environment, as well as provide control and environmental management measures. This, mainly, in order to reach the assessment of environmental compatibility levels. The study has taken into consideration all the environmental systems on which environmental impacts induced by the construction and operational phase of the plant can occur directly or indirectly. The description of the state of the existing environment within the intervention has been carried out by referring to the documentation drawn at the Regional Agency for the Protection of the Environment of Campania, to the data found in the literature, the information acquired in the sites of the different entities and administrations operating on the territory in question, as well as through investigations and surveys carried out on the places subject to the intervention. It is important to note that the subject of a preliminary environmental impact study are the interactions between the actions provided by a project and the environment that receives it [36–38]. In this sense, the components and environmental factors must be considered as possible disturbances caused by project intervention, or as intermediate moments of a process that translates into disturbances to other components.

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It is advisable to make a clarification on what is meant by the terms “environmental component” and “environmental factor”, since in the present environmental preliminary study, these elements have been distinct, even in a uniqueness of approach. “Components” are the constituent elements of the environment (air, water, soil, etc.), or are the categories of physically identifiable elements that make up the environment, while “factors” are those elements that constitute the cause of interference and possible perturbation against other environmental components (noise, vibrations, radiation, waste, etc.).

3 Results 3.1 The Check-List Method for Identifying Impacts The term impact refers to a “change in an environmental parameter, over a specified period and within a defined area, resulting from a particular activity compared with the situation which would have occurred had the activity not been initiated” [39: 7]. Impact prediction analyses all such changes likely to occur as a consequence of the construction and the operating phase of a project. First of all, impacts are identified, and subsequently, they are studied more in detail. The impact identification is usually carried out through tools such as checklists, matrices, or networks. Checklists simply consist of lists of environmental parameters potentially subjected to impacts, usually subdivided into several environmental components [37, 40]. The method used for the identification of the possible impacts that the infrastructure may have on the components and environmental factors, is a check-list, which is prodromic to the evaluation of the impacts. Check-lists are selected lists of parameters, related to the components and environmental factors, to project factors and/or impact factors, which constitute the reference guide for the identification of the impacts, allowing to prepare an information framework on the main interrelations that must be analyzed. The simplest tool can be considered to identify the impacts [41, 42]. In the literature five main types of check-lists [43] are identified: 1. Simple check-list: they consist of simple lists of standardized environmental components by type of project (energy production plants, transport systems, etc.) or area (marine environment, coastal, etc.); 2. Descriptive check-list: they are lists that provide for each component considered the guide and the methodological criteria necessary for the evaluation of their quality and for the forecast of impacts; 3. Check-list of questions: they consist of lists of questions relating to project activities and to the effects resulting on environmental components;

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4. Scaling check-list: they are lists that provide techniques for the training of rankings of alternatives examined in relation to the impact scheduled on each component; 5. Weighting check-list: they are lists that provide techniques for measuring, weighting and aggregation of elementary impacts in synthetic impact indices. The check-lists belonging to the first three categories (simple, descriptive, of questions) are qualitative lists and operates essentially as a sort of guide to analytical reasoning, with the aim of preventing fundamental aspects of the impact to be neglected. The first and perhaps more well-known example is represented by the list of questions contained in the PADC Manual method, which constitutes the EIA methodology developed by the Project Appraisal for Development Control Research Team [36]. The questions urge a forecasting and evaluation work of the probability of impact occurrence, which will then be reported later in an action-component matrix. Therefore, “check-lists of questions” have been preliminarily developed, that direct the evaluation of the impacts, carried out in a subsequent step. For each question, “yes/no” binary response was given to indicate the presence or the absence of that characteristic. A preliminary indication relating to the impact categories, articulated in: time phase (construction or operating phase), temporal distribution (continuous, discontinuous, or concentrated), intensity (weak, moderate, strong) has been hooked to allegedly negative impacts. This preliminary evaluation phase is essential to identify the environmental components that actually will be more impacted negatively by the project. For example, for the “soil and subsoil” component, that has growing importance in environmental assessments [44] the main points of attention to which a positive significance was given (and therefore a possible negative impact) were: • Are there interfered areas directly or indirectly from the project agricultural areas of particular value, such as to request specific attentions? • Will the project interventions involve cuts of vegetation, excavations or earth movements such as to be able to trigger erosive processes on slopes following the run-off of meteoric waters? • Does the intervention (or the infrastructures at its service) include the realization of linear works such as to interrupt the continuity of the ground surface? • Does the intervention involve the waterproofing of new areas, to a significant extent compared to what is already existing?

3.2 Attribution of Weights to Components and Environmental Factors It seems necessary and appropriate to consider that, in the light of the characteristics and type of the project subjected to screening, together with the characteristics of the environmental components and factors of the specific local context, the latter takes a

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relevance and therefore a different weight, not resulting neither impacted to the same way nor all significant in the same way for the specific environmental sensitivity. Therefore, we have decided to attribute weights to each component or environmental factor. The weight assignment procedure was carried out through a pair comparison method, in which each of the components or environmental factors was compared with the others, in order to deduce a hierarchy of relevance [45]. The AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) is a method for supporting decisions developed by the American mathematician Thomas Lorie Saaty since the late 1970s and is still one of the most used methods for weight attribution by comparison in pairs [46–48]. The method allows to evaluate the priorities of actions that can be, as appropriate: programs, intervention strategies, plans, projects, etc. In the present case, components and environmental factors are compared in pairs to establish which of them is more relevant and to what extent: through the pairs comparison the priorities are not assigned arbitrarily but derive from verbal and/or numeric judgments. The final result of the AHP is the following (Fig. 4): Fig. 4 AHP Method results

Weights

Products

Ratio

air quality and climate

0,07

0,5496

8,3281

hydrological environment

0,14

1,2574

9,1781

soil and subsoil

0,27

2,4064

8,9728

flora, fauna and ecosystems

0,04

0,3048

8,3109

cultural heritage and landscape

0,19

1,7516

9,3421

noise and vibrations

0,09

0,7651

8,8487

waste production

0,03

0,2455

8,4733

socio-economic conditions

0,19

1,7250

9,1164

SUM

1,00

CI=

0,1173

MEAN

0,125

CI/RI=

0,0832

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Both for the characteristics of the context in which the project is inserted, both for the characteristics of the project itself, the “soil and subsoil” component is the most stressed component, as can be seen from the results in the matrix. Even the “hydrological environment” component is significantly urged by the impacts of the project and in particular for what concerns groundwater, as the most significant interventions that impact the environment and in particular on this component, are the underpass. As for environmental components and factors of anthropic origin, such as “cultural heritage and landscape”, “socio-economic conditions”, “noise and vibrations”, these ones are significantly stressed. It is understood, that is, that these components or factors both for the urban and landscape context in which the project inserted, both for the characteristics of the project, are significantly important than the others. Finally, the component relating to “flora, fauna and ecosystems” and the environmental factor relating to the “waste production” were the least impacted and, therefore, with a minimum weight assigned to all other factors or components.

3.3 Forecasting and Assessment of Potential Impacts of the Project on the Environment Following the analysis of the potential impacts deriving from the implementation of the activities envisaged by the project, assessment matrices of the impacts were created, determined in a quantitative way with reference to the environmental aspects analyzed, which is expressed by an index, called Preliminary Environmental Impact (PEI). In the matrix of impact assessment, the scores for each environmental aspect have been assigned, based on a score attributed to each functional element of the overall project [49, 50]. Therefore, numerical criteria have been identified: 1. Intensity criterion: it concerns aspects that can cause or not impact on the environment, where the intensity is associated with the magnitude of the impact (M); 2. Scale criterion: referring to the vastness of the impact area (S); 3. Probability criterion: numerical criterion that concerns the probability of the environmental impact (in essence that happens or not) linked to the time duration of the activity from which the impact originates (P); 4. Reversibility criterion: numeric criterion linked to the possibility that an impact exhausts its effects, and therefore at the time of time (R). The numerical criteria are expressed by means of an index, the Preliminary Environmental Impact Factor (PEIF) that is obtained by multiplying the scores assigned to each criterion: PEIF = (M × S × P × R)

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Each of these criteria is assigned a score from 1 to 4. • Magnitude index (M) The value attributed to magnitude (M) is the one that “leads” the others, as if the impact is not attributable the score 0 is assigned. The score “1” is assigned to intervention that has no significant impacts on the environment, up to score “4” assigned to those ones that very significantly impact on the environment. This index is the only one provided with verse, which means that to the positive intensity impacts values will be assigned from +1 to +4, to the negative ones, values from −1 to −4. • Space scale index (S) The scale indicates the influence area of the impact. The value varies from 1 (whether the impacts manifest within a limited area) up to 4 (in case impact occurs throughout the municipality and beyond zone) depending on the amplitude of the influence area. In this case the score attributed to the index is an absolute value and will be the same in the event of negative and positive impacts. • Probability index (P) The probability of the impact is the possibility that it takes place or occur following the realization of the project: the attributed value is between 1 and 4 proportionally to the probability. Also, in this case the score attributed to the index is an absolute value and will be the same both in the event of negative and positive impacts. • Reversibility index (R) The reversibility of an impact measures and assesses its persistence time and therefore the possible condition of total or partial return to an initial state. The score goes from “temporary impact” (construction phase only) to potentially short-term or long-term reversible impacts, to “permanent impact”. This concept should not be understood with a negative exception, since even positive impacts can only be transient (think of the increase in labor, and therefore of employment, linked to the construction of a building artifact), so permanent positive impacts on the environment will have a higher score. For each of the 11 project interventions in which the overall project was articulated, an assessment was carried out relatively to each component or environmental factor, regarding the intensity, reversibility, and probability, on the base of previously established indexes. In this way, the partial preliminary environmental impact was obtained, relative to each environmental component and given by the multiplication of the values attributed to each index. Below, in Fig. 5, an extract from the whole matrix, referring to the impacts of the interventions on the “soil and subsoil” component.

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magnitude

scale

reversibility

probability

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Three levels garage in via Fucci

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Pedestrian underpass with underground square in Via Nolana.

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Pompei Sanctuary railway station North access with underpass connecting to the Sanctuary area.

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New pedestrian area

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Delocalization and rebuilding

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Vehicular underpass system

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Fig. 5 Impacts of the interventions on the “soil and subsoil” component

The overall impact assessment matrix returns clear values: the components/factors that are more negatively impacted are “air quality and climate” and “soil and subsoil”; the ones positively impacted are: “cultural heritage and landscape” (mainly for aesthetic-perceptive impacts) and “socio-economic conditions” (for the rise in the quality of life and livability in the area affected by the intervention—and in part by the increase in employment in the construction site). The environmental factor can take values between ±[256]. Within this interval, 4 significance scales are considered, only for negative values (i.e., referring to negative impacts) which result into 4 intervention priority levels. For a little relevant significance, partial mitigation is needed on the impact components; for moderately relevant significance the priority of mitigation is permanent; for very significant significance the priority is high and therefore mitigations are no longer sufficient, but an environmental compensation operation is needed; for extremely relevant significance, the intervention is unrealizable. Finally, the outcomes reported in the impact assessment matrix were composed in a further final matrix. In this matrix, weights attributed to each component or environmental factors have been reported and therefore it was possible to calculate the weighing sum of the impacts of each project intervention. The penultimate column shows the final weighted impacts values attributed to each intervention. In the last column it is possible to read the class attribution based

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on the subdivision previously carried out. From the latter passage it is clear that some project interventions have no relevant or positive or impacts; the other interventions fall in the first class for which a partial mitigation is necessary in the construction phase. The only intervention of those who falls into the second class, or with a low relevance, is the one relating to the system of vehicular underpasses, for which it is necessary to provide permanent mitigations on the impact components. The overall assessment outcomes are reported in the weighted impact matrix with the class attribution in Fig. 6. From the assessment of impacts, it was also possible to deduce the levels of attention relating to each impact environmental component. The “soil and subsoil” component is the one for which permanent mitigation interventions will be necessary in relation to the realization of underpasses; even the “hydrological Environment” component is significantly urged in relation to the same interventions. The “air quality and climate” and “noise and vibration” components are moderately stressed and, in

Fig. 6 Weighted impact matrix

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any case, almost exclusively during construction phase. The components relating to “cultural heritage and landscape” and the “socio-economic conditions” are instead impacted very positively and therefore for the latter will not be necessary mitigation interventions. The additional components are not almost stressed but in construction phase.

4 Conclusions The studies conducted have made it possible to carry out a preliminary analysis of the state of the environmental components of the territory where interventions are inserted; to formulate a forecast on predictable impacts; and finally, to determine the environmental compensation measures and provide indications on the methods for preparing the environmental monitoring plan [51]. The innovative aspect of the assessments, lies in the possibility of deducting a single preliminary impact index, determined in a qualitative way on the basis of the assessment given to the partial impact of each functional element of the overall project with reference to environmental components, through a multi-level analysis that considered the intensity, scale, probability and finally the reversibility of the impacts themselves. The preliminary assessment of project transformation projects is the most delicate phase of the process of EIA, in which the higher is the request for transparency in decisions and comparing environmental, economic, social costs and benefits [52]. The methodologies applied in case-study allow not only to identify and evaluate the possible impacts on environmental and social components, but also to objectively define the burden that the public will be able to attribute to environmental variables in relation to the projects proposed, in the subsequent phases [53]. At the moment, although the project is still in a decision-making phase, some committees against the realization of the intervention, are already born in Pompeii; they demonstrate in particular against the underpasses (despite the impacts on the soil and subsoil component are technically equally mitigable). This opposition of local populations requires a thorough reflection on the methods of engagement of citizens in the realization of infrastructure works. As well known, in the environmental assessment process, participation in public policy begins since the 2000s to take part and become a larger part of the process. The participation of subjects is essential to ensure transparency in decisions, to encourage the involvement of parties and bring even fragile subjects into the process [54]. In transparency there is a global involvement, not only of entities, but of citizens to whom the infrastructure is addressed, especially to overcome failures of policies and decisions, including from the perspective of new climate change [55], the need to introduce criteria on collective environmental sustainability finds reason in examples of market failures such as ai pollution, congestion, pricing and land use regulation. The delicacy of the process also allows to obtain results suitable for the policies put in place [56] to obtain clear objectives with rules of the procedure in accordance

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with European regulations and policies. The meeting between environmental and social sustainability is in the strengthening of public participation to avoid complex phenomena of rejection with increase of its rationality [57] and the rejection of the work [58] especially in the acceptance of works and in the control of the sustainability of territorial transformations in metropolitan and densely populated areas [59]. When evaluating civil works can be brought to realization works not fully accepted [60] so it should always be remembered the delicate process that concerns public infrastructure projects that impact the territory and society in the long term and with large investments [61] by the citizenship at risk of being unused and increase the number of unfinished in our country. The weight of the choices must be placed in contexts both on a local scale and on a large scale, transforming the problems identified in the assessment into opportunities to achieve socio-environmental goals ecologically sustainable, changing the perception of the priorities of the planning and modifying measures and actions of the environmental procedure that must be increasingly built as a decision-making process environmental, increasing awareness ex ante on the actions proposed by the administration and choices identified by the common parts [62–64].

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Investigating “Sustainable Neighbourhoods” in the Italian Context: A Diachronic Approach Federica Rotondo, Francesca Abastante, Giancarlo Cotella, and Isabella M. Lami

Abstract The chapter investigates the evolution of the “sustainable neighbourhoods” paradigm in Italy, drawing on a selection of initiatives developed through time also as a consequence of the incremental consolidation of a European and national legislation on the matter. The case studies are analysed through a grid developed in the framework of the Erasmus + project LOTUS and properly adapted to the scope of this contribution. The authors identify two main patterns that have characterised the evolution of energy policies and sustainable urban planning practices in Italy in the last 30 years: (i) the shift from a sectoral approach that addresses the production of energy (“silos approach”) to the integration of different urban strategies and policies that look at changes in the processes of production, distribution and energy-saving in relation to urban planning transformations (“integrated approach”); (ii) the shift from the localisation of specific interventions concentrated within a defined municipality or urban area to the promotion of diffused actions fostering inter-municipal cooperation under a regime of co-ownership and co-management of energy services. The collected evidence constitutes a useful input for spatial governance and planning activities in the Italian context, supporting initiatives and projects that promote energy transitions towards the decarbonisation of cities. Keywords Sustainable neighbourhoods · Urban transformations · Energy policy · Spatial governance · Italy

F. Rotondo (B) · F. Abastante · G. Cotella · I. M. Lami Interuniversity Department of Regional and Urban Studies and Planning (DIST), Politecnico di Torino, Viale Mattioli, 39, 10125 Turin, Italy e-mail: [email protected] F. Abastante e-mail: [email protected] G. Cotella e-mail: [email protected] I. M. Lami e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_9

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1 Introduction The challenges generated by the current environmental and climate crisis increase the need to support institutions, organisations, and citizens in the energy transition processes towards the progressive decarbonisation of society [23, 24]. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to mobilise a multitude of public, private, and third sector actors, operating within a complex, multilevel system of institutions and organisations that spans from the local to the national and European level [5, 19, 27] This chapter contributes to shedding some light on this issue, investigating the evolution of the “sustainable neighbourhoods” paradigm in the Italian context. It does so by analysing a selection of projects and initiatives undertaken in various areas of the country in the last 30 years, and elaborating on the impact that the evolution of the European and Italian legislation in the environment and energy fields1 has had on their development [7, 10]. To this end, the empirical investigation of the selected case studies adopts an analytical grid developed in the framework of the Erasmus + project LOTUS (Locally Organized Transition of Urban Sustainable Spaces)2 and appropriately integrated to fit the scope of this task. The comparative, diachronic approach adopted by the authors dedicates particular attention to: (i) the spatial resources targeted for the production of clean energy and the implementation of energy efficiency measures; (ii) the actors involved in the decision-making processes and the formal relation between them; (iii) the origin of funding and the financial schemes adopted in the different urban and territorial contexts. The contribution starts with an introduction of the paradigm of “sustainable neighbourhoods”, and of its development through time, also as a consequence of the incremental development and consolidation of a European and a national legislative framework in the fields of energy and the environment. Section 3 presents the analytical approach developed in the framework of the Erasmus + LOTUS project and the way the latter has been fine-tuned for this analysis, and introduces the five case studies under investigation. The fourth section constitutes the core of the chapter: it discusses and systematically compares the evidence collected in relation to the different cases, dedicating particular attention to the three dimensions highlighted above as well as to the role that the evolving European and national legislative framework had played

1

We are aware that the EU Environmental and Energy legislation extends much beyond the scope of the present article (i.e. through the EIA and SEA Directives, the Nature 2000 Framework, the Birds, Water Framework and Habitat Directives etc.). In this light, our overview is limited to directives and regulations that have had an explicit impact on the development of the sustainable neighbourhood paradigm [28]. 2 The project LOTUS (https://lotus-transition.eu/) is funded by ERASMUS + Strategic Partnership for Higher Education, Call 2019 Round 1 KA2—Cooperation for innovation and the exchange of good practices, contract number 870697. Project’s partners include Hochschule Fur Öffentliche Verwaltung Kehl (Germany), Logiville (France), Zapadoceska Univerzita V Plzni (Czech Republic), Politecnico di Torino (Italy), Rigas Tehniska Universitate (Latvia), Université Paris-Est Marne la Vallée (France).

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in their inception and development. A conclusive section rounds off the contribution, shedding light on two main patterns that have characterised the evolution of energy policies in relation urban planning practices in the national context in the last 30 years: (i) the shift from a sectoral approach focused only on the production of clean energy (“silos approach”) to the integration of different urban strategies and policies that look at the processes of production, distribution and energy-saving in relation to urban planning transformations (“integrated approach”) and (ii) the shift from the localisation of specific interventions concentrated within a defined municipal area to the promotion of diffused actions fostering inter-municipal cooperation under a regime of co-ownership and co-management of energy services. Overall, through this contribution the authors aim at providing a number of preliminary coordinates that may contribute to energy transition policies and practices, in so doing supporting spatial governance and planning activities towards the decarbonisation of cities and societies.

2 Origins and Evolution of the “Sustainable Neighbourhood” Paradigm Since the 1990s, “sustainable neighbourhoods”, “eco-districts” or similar concepts have emerged in response to the incremental acknowledgment of the environmental and climate crisis in the international discourse. Initially, these paradigms placed particular emphasis on energy issues, environmental-friendly solutions, and soft mobility all to be implemented at the neighbourhood scale. As shown by Bottero et al. [4], the scientific literature on the matter presents over the years a variety of theoretical perspectives and approaches to the definition of these concepts. Their characteristics and boundaries are not clearly defined neither theoretically nor in the practice realm, and some authors underline the need for a punctual, empirical investigation that could help to define their distinctive features and elements by building upon theoretical insights and empirical evidence [3, 21]. The concept of sustainable development was firstly introduced in 1987, by the UN World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) and the publication of the Brundtland Report, which defined what then were considered its three main pillars: the environmental, the social, and the economic dimensions [26]. In the late 1980s, much focus was devoted to the features concurring with the environmental dimension of sustainability, somehow at the detriment of the economic and social aspects [17]. In the 1990s, at a time when energetic issues gained greater attention in the sustainable development and urban policy discourses, the economic dimension come back into play more forcefully, while the social dimension continued to raise lesser attention [2, 17]. Since the new millennium, the tripartition of the sustainability concept started to be questioned from multiple sides, with an increasing number of authors that argued for greater relevance of the social dimension, as well as for the consideration of other dimensions such as the governance and policy dimensions [2].

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A recent contribution by Bottero et al. [4] proposes an investigation of the concept of sustainable neighbourhoods based on the scientific literature of the last decade, in so doing individuating a number of exemplary case studies located in the European continent and using them to delimit the semantic field surrounding the concept. More in detail, the authors underline four main characteristics of the sustainable neighbourhoods and eco-districts concepts related to the fields of energy, socio-economic development, mobility, and urban design. The investigation confirms the pivotal role that the analysed experiences award to energy-related aspects (e.g. energy performance buildings), to mobility aspects (e.g. public and alternative means of transport), and to urban design aspects (e.g. brownfield regeneration or actions focusing on undeveloped areas of the city), at the detriment of socio-economic aspects (e.g. social inclusion in marginalised areas) in the development of sustainable neighbourhoods. Other literature sources testify a number of main trends in conceptualising the “sustainable neighbourhoods” concept over the last 30 years: (i) the shift from a sectoral approach mainly focused on the technical dimension of new technologies and smart energy and mobility solutions to the call for a more integrated approach that jointly considers a social and governance dimension reflecting upon actors’ interactions and decision-making processes [16, 17], (ii) the transition from the initial focus on the neighbourhood scale to the progressive enlargement towards the urban and territorial scale that also take into account upscaling and transferability of good practices [11]. It is important to highlight that this conceptual and practical evolution did not occur either spontaneously or in isolation. On the one hand, it is the outcome of the mentioned evolution of the sustainable development paradigm within the European and international discourse, that has been given a brief account in the above text. On the other hand, it has been flanked, stimulated, and supported by a growing body of directives and regulations developed at the EU level and then progressively transposed, according to a rather differential process, in all EU member states. As the literature on Europeanisation aptly points out [8, 9], the impact generated by EU rules, regulations, and policies on the various countries is the result of multiple elements, among which the characteristics of the legal and administrative framework of each country play a highly relevant role [20]. As a result, the impact of the same regulation or policy may highly differ from country to country, as a consequence of the domestic interpretation of and reaction to the external stimulus [25]. In order to shed light on the reasons behind the emergence and proliferation of sustainable neighbourhoods in Europe and in Italy, it is therefore important to take into account and explore both the evolution of the legislative framework concerning energy-related issues at European level, as well as how the latter has progressively been transposed in the national legislation [1, 10].

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2.1 The Evolution of Energy-Related Legislation at European and National Levels In the last 30 years, in response to incremental international attention to the ongoing environmental and climate crisis, the European community has developed its legislative activity according to two parallel directions: (i) on the one hand, it defined, through the so-called energy and climate packages, increasingly stringent objectives that affirm the gradual transition from a low-carbon to a net-zero carbon society; (ii) on the other hand, the issuance of these climate and energy packages is concomitant to the development of EU directives and regulations that have at first focused on the promotion of clean energy and, at a later time, on the necessary integration of the latter with solutions characterised by higher energy efficiency. This legislative action entailed the development and operationalisation of a high number of directives, regulations, and policy packages, an activity that started during the second half of the 1990s and continues to the present day (Fig. 1). The Kyoto Protocol, defined in 1997 by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), is the only legally binding treaty on the global level for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by an average of 5% below 1990 levels. From the 2000s the EU is committed to meeting the UN objectives also through the adoption of energy and climate policy packages that include strategies, directives and regulation [10]. In 2009 the 2020 climate and energy package requires member states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions before 2020 by 20%, achieve 20% energy dependence on renewable sources, and increase energy savings by 20% compared to 1990 levels.3 Within this package, the directive 2009/28/EC focuses on the promotion of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) and cooperative approaches among member states for the translation of EU energy targets. Published some years later, in 2012, the energy efficiency directive 2013/27/EC specifically addresses different energy consumption sectors (e.g. building, transport, industry) and asks the member states to define national energy efficiency targets for the year 2020. In 2014, the European Union sets the 2030 climate and energy framework, defining the targets for the year 2030 with a reduction of at least 40% in greenhouse gas emissions, the achievement of at least 32% energy dependence on renewable sources, and the increase of at least 32.5% in relation to energy efficiency [14]. Finally, in 2018, Europe presents its 2050 long-term strategy to become the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050 [15]. To this aim in July 2021, the EU adopted a number of directives and legislative proposals for better defining the strategies to reach climate neutrality in the EU by 2050. Among the others, the directives 2018/2001/EU (Renewable Energy Directive—RED II) and 2019/944/EU (Internal Electricity Market Directive—IEM) together represent the regulatory reference framework at the European level to enhance energy transition and promote energy communities. 3

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2020-climate-energy-packag e_en.

Fig. 1 The evolution of European and national legislation in the field on energy-environment (Source authors’ own elaboration)

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Within the framework defined by the EU energy regulations and policies, each member state is asked to pursue the objectives defined at EU level transposing the EU directives into its own national (and in some cases regional) legislation and setting its specific targets in terms of energy efficiency and production of clean energy, within the ranges and thresholds defined at the EU level. To fulfill this task, the Italian government proceeded in parallel to the guidelines adopted at the EU level, promulgating legislative decrees that implement the European directives and adopting decree-laws that initially addressed the businesses sector exclusively and, at a later time, also encompassed the housing sector. More recently, the country has achieved further progress with the adoption of a National Energy Strategy (SEN) in 2017 and with the outline of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP) in 2019, which defines the national agenda to achieve EU energy and CO2 targets4 for the time that runs between 2021 and 2030. The elaboration of the Italian INECP has followed an iterative process of consultation between the European Commission and the Italian ministries, namely the national Ministry of Economic Development (MISE), the Ministry of the Environment and Territory Preservation, and the Ministry of Mobility and Infrastructures. More recently, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) has been set in the framework of the Next Generation EU program and its Recovery and Resilience Facility. The RRP devotes more than 30% of the total available resources to strategies and actions aimed at promoting the green revolution and ecologic transition (mission 2), and that dedicates particular attention to renewable energy (M2C2) and to the energy efficiency and renovation of buildings (M2C3).5 In the last two years the legislation concerning energy community has further evolved at the national level as a consequence of the recent efforts put in place to face the ongoing pandemic and its impact on urban areas.6

3 Selection of Italian Case Studies The main objective of the Erasmus + LOTUS project is to conceive and test new learning tools that will enable future European architects, spatial planners, and public administrators to lead local communities in the implementation of the energy transition towards a greener and carbon-neutral future. To this end, the project partners conceived a dynamic teaching curriculum based on the adoption of innovative teaching means including (i) the city planning role-playing game Urban Energy Management game (UrbEN), which simulates a complex system of urban actors’

4

An English version is available at https://www.mise.gov.it/images/stories/documenti/it_final_ necp_main_en.pdf. 5 An updated version of the document is available at: https://italiadomani.gov.it/it/home.html. 6 For a more detailed examination of the impaction that the COVID-19 pandemic may have on cities see: Cotella and Vitale Brovarone [12, 13].

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interactions in energy transition processes; (ii) the catalogue of real-word experiences Catalogue of Real Cases (CoRC), that aims at presenting and discussing with students specific energy transition aspects drawing on real-world case studies and (iii) the textbook on urban energy transition processes, that all together should provide a conceptual framework for energy transition-related issues. The CoRC is particularly relevant for the contents of the present chapter, and it is explored here more in detail. The real-world experiences of CoRC are not necessarily “best practices” or “exemplary cases”; at the same time, they are in one way or another significant in relation to one or more specific aspects of energy and climate governance and planning, with particular reference to the actors, resources and processes that they entail. The scientific partners of the LOTUS project have collectively developed an analytical grid that allows for the direct comparison of the different case studies included in the CoRC. More in detail, this grid is composed of the following elements: (i) the urban characteristics of the contexts within which the initiatives or projects are promoted, (ii) the different types of measures for clean energy production and energy efficiency adopted in each case, (iii) the participation of local actors and citizens in the decision-making process and (iv) the economic and physical impacts generated by the interventions and processes at stake. Taking inspiration from the LOTUS CoRC analytical grid, the analysis presented in this chapter focuses on the Italian context by considering a selection of five cases located in central-northern Italy and acting at different spatial scales. The selected case studies are compared through an implementation of the initial analytical grid, which allows focusing the attention on spatial governance issues. More specifically, the analysis investigated the following aspects: (i) the spatial resources targeted for clean energy production and energy efficiency measures; (ii) the role and interests of the actors involved in the decision-making process and the relation among them; (iii) the origin of funding and the financial schemes adopted in the different urban and territorial contexts. As it will be further elaborated in the discussion and concluding sections, through the exploration of these aspects it is possible to shed light on some of the infrastructural, economic and procedural barriers that nowadays hinder the application of the European and Italian legislation on energy efficiency and RES [10]. The analysed case studies have been selected through a survey of the existing European research projects and databases that included anticipatory experiences and best practices in the field of urban low-carbon and zero-carbon transition: (i) EU FP MILESECURE-2050 (2013–2015: Multidimensional Impact of the Low-carbon European Strategy on Energy Security),7 (ii) SMARTEES (2018–2021: Social Innovation Modelling Approaches to Realizing Transition Energy Efficiency and Sustainability8 ) and (iii) EU Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy plans and actions database.9 The cases have been selected based on the following criteria: (i) firstly, the projects or initiatives are developed in the Italian context in a span ranging from the 1990s to the present day; (ii) secondly, they pursue energy-saving and clean energy 7

https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/320169/reporting. https://local-social-innovation.eu. 9 https://www.pattodeisindaci.eu/piani-e-azioni/buone-pratiche.html. 8

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production objectives; (iii) lastly, they include a plurality of individual and collective actors who are involved in the public arena including owners, managers, users, agencies and local organisations. The selected cases are listed in Table 1, which provides information concerning their location, the time frame of their execution, and the main objective of the projects and initiatives. Figure 2 displays their geographical distribution in the country territory. The selected projects and initiatives affect a variety of urban (e.g. Bologna and Milan), metropolitan (e.g. Turin), and rural contexts (e.g. Peccioli and Torri Superiore). They developed over a rather large time span that ranges between 1989 and 2020: some of them are characterised by a larger time-frame of about 30 years (e.g. Peccioli and Torri Superiore), while most recent cases concern a time frame of 5 years or less (e.g. Bologna, Turin and Milan). Finally, the analysed case studies target different areas of intervention: the cases of Milan and Bologna concern two districts located in the peripheral areas of the respective cities; the case of Turin is Table 1 Synoptic presentation of the selected case studies, their time-frames and main objectives Location

Time-frame

Main objective

Acronym

Sharing Cities Milano Milan

2016–2020

To transform the Porta Romana district into a smart and “almost” zero emission district

MI16

Torino together 2020

Turin

2014–2017

To address the need for TO14 municipalities to overcome economic and financial difficulties at the local level in the implementation of energy efficiency measures on public property

PEEP Corticella

Bologna

2012–2014

To reduce CO2 emissions BO12 by 20% by 2020 at the municipal level and to develop an energy community at the district level

Sistema Peccioli

Peccioli

1997-ongoing To solve the environmental issue of the village linked to a badly managed landfill, collecting waste from 5 municipalities

Torri Superiore

Torri Superiore 1989-ongoing To transform the small TS89 abandoned medieval village of Torri Superiore into an Ecovillage with a permanent cultural centre

Source authors’ own elaboration

PE97

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Fig. 2 Geographical distribution and acronym of the selected cases studies (Source authors’ own elaboration)

addressed to small and medium-sized municipalities in the metropolitan area; the cases of Peccioli and Torri Superiore concern small and medium-size villages.

4 Comparison and Discussion The following sub-sections present and compare the evidence collected in relation to the selected case studies, in the light of three main aspects: (i) the spatial resources targeted for the production of clean energy and the energy efficiency measures undertaken in each case; (ii) the roles of the actors involved in the decision process and the relations occurring between them; (iii) the origin of funding and the financial schemes adopted in the different contexts. The discussion is further framed by considering the urban characteristics and geographical location of the selected case studies as well as their relation to the evolving European and national legislative framework.

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4.1 Energy Solutions and Spatial Scales All selected case studies include energy efficiency solutions in combination with measures aimed at the production of clean energy in relation to the spatial resources of the specific territory (Fig. 3). Among the solution for clean energy production, the majority of cases (3/5) include solar thermal and photovoltaic systems, especially in the most densely populated contexts (Milan, Turin, Bologna). The initiatives that are carried out in less urbanised areas, characterised by the presence of hills or mountains, include instead the construction of new plants for the production of energy from biogas, biomass, and wind (Peccioli and Torri Superiore). This is also justified by the greater availability of the spatial and natural resources in less densely populated and urbanised areas [18]. Among the interventions for energy efficiency, the most common solutions include the renovation of residential and commercial buildings (both public and private) and, in the case of less urbanised areas, the improvement of waste storage systems and phyto-purification. Overall, the spatial impacts of the considered cases are concentrated variously along the main infrastructural axes or in punctual areas of varying size, working at the neighbourhood scale (BO12 and MI16), at the municipal scale (PE97 and TS89) or the metropolitan scale (TO14). From the survey of the selected cases, it emerges that the neighbourhood scale lends itself to pilot the experimentation of innovative solutions that, through time, might be then replicated on the larger urban scale as a consequence of the adoption of a more comprehensive, medium to long term vision or strategy. This expedient is particularly useful in the more populous cities, where there is the advantage, also in economic terms, to intervene in a less extensive area to then ponder the implementation of the adopted solution at the larger urban and territorial scale. On the other hand, small and medium-size villages or municipalities (PE97 or TS89) lend themselves to an intervention that takes into account the entire municipal area (smaller in size and, perhaps due to this reason, more easily governable), within a vision of local planning that integrates different strategies and projects. Finally, to intervene at the metropolitan/territorial

Fig. 3 Energy production (upper part) and efficiency solutions (lower part) of selected case studies (Source authors’ own elaboration)

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scale (TO14) allows for a more comprehensive action that targets clusters of small and medium municipalities ensuring economies of scale as well as fostering rewarding processes of mutual learning and cross-fertilisation [6].

4.2 Actors and Relations The second aspect under discussion concerns the plurality of the actors involved in the decision-making processes leading to urban and territorial transformations, in combination with the analysis of the adopted contractual forms among different actors (Fig. 4). The collected evidence shows that, since the 1990s, the decision-making arena has opened to an increasing number of actors, interests and competences, not only limited to the involvement of public institutions or agencies but also to the engagement of private companies and third sector actors (e.g. building owners, energy providers, citizens, etc.). The variety of actors involved in the decision-making processes is partly related to the increasingly fractioned ownership structure of the urban contexts in which the interventions are carried out as well as the variety of the funding sources of the projects (see also Sect. 4.3 Funding and Financing Schemes). In this regard, the case of Bologna is exemplary: since the neighbourhood targeted by energy renovation initiatives includes buildings characterised by public, private, and undivided ownership, the actors involved in the process included not only the local administration but also the residents and the local cooperative society. On the other hand, less recent projects feature a preponderant and almost exclusive role of the project promoter as the main source funding: a non-profit organisation composed of local residents in the case of Torri Superiore and an investee company of the municipality involving the municipality itself and local residents in the case of Peccioli. The projects and initiatives developed during the last decade tend towards the progressive of public

Fig. 4 Involved actors (upper part) and formal partnerships (lower part) of selected case studies (Source authors’ own elaboration)

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Fig. 5 Funding’s origins (upper part) and financing schemes (lower part) of selected case studies (Source authors’ own elaboration)

supranational funding in parallel with the inclusion of different interests and competences located at the same level of government: for example, the involvement of more than one municipality in the case of Turin and various public agencies in the case of Milan where the targeted buildings are owned by the municipality. Moreover, the plurality of the actors involved in the decision-making processes is closely linked to the contractual forms activated that range from agreements between the public administration and individual actors (generally private) to public-private partnerships and mixed contracts between public and private actors. In the case of Turin, a single large-scale authority (the Metropolitan City of Turin) acts as a coordinating body among small and medium-size municipalities, in order to achieve economies of scale in terms of energy efficiency and recovery of investments over time and to serve as a platform for knowledge exchange and mutual learning among the involved subjects.

4.3 Funding and Financing Schemes When taking into account the origin of funding and the financing schemes adopted, the case studies under investigation show increasing use of EU resources, demonstrating the attempt to develop synergies between the sustainability objectives defined at the local and supra-local level with those overarching priorities that influence resources distribution at European and national levels10 (Fig. 5). In recent times the most frequent financial schemes (present in 3 cases over 5) involve the combination of both public and private funding. In particular, there has been an increase in the adoption of the so-called Energy Performance Contracts (EPC) which provide forms of financing through third parties. More specifically, in 10

This phenomenon may be read as a typical example of economic conditionality, whereas the EU attach the delivery of its funding to a number of substantive and procedural conditions, and the domestic actors are required to conform to these conditions in order to access the available resources [8].

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EPC a private operator (generally an ESCo-Energy Service Company) finances the energy upgrading of buildings while the owners of the buildings, public or private, only pay to the private party a fee that is commensurate to the actual achievement of performance and energy saving of the building (in turn certified by an external party). Concerning the origin of funding and activated financial schemes two edge cases are represented by the case of Torri Superiore, where a group of private members of a cultural association literally bought the village and thus intervened with their resources on the entirety of the built heritage, and the case of Milan where the energy renovation of public housing buildings is entirely funded by public resources (constitute by a 10% of EU funds and by 90% of municipal and national funds).

5 Closing Remarks The chapter discussed a number of Italian experiences in the field of urban transformations and energy transitions, with the aim to shed light on the evolution of the sustainable neighbourhoods paradigm in the country through time, also as a consequence of the progressive consolidation of a legislative framework on the matter at the EU and national levels (Fig. 6). The collected evidence seems to hint that this evolution has been characterised by two main patterns during the last 30 years: (i) the shift from a sectoral approach focused on energy-related issues only to a more integrated approach to be pursued through spatial governance and planning systems; (ii) the move from the focus on punctual interventions of selected neighbourhood or municipal areas to widespread interventions looking at the territorial scale and aimed at the promotion of inter-municipal cooperation and networking. First of all, there is a tendency towards a cross-sectoral approach, that aims to integrate aspects of a purely energetic nature (production, distribution, and savings) within broader themes such as the recovery and regeneration of urban and rural areas in the process of degradation and abandonment (e.g. the case of Peccioli), or in combination with the safety and renovation of public schools (e.g. the Turin 2020 project). Secondly, a cooperative dimension is highlighted, whereby there is a progressive shift from the direct and exclusive entrusting of the provision and management of energy services to private individuals towards the creation of coordinated cooperation able to involve institutional and non-institutional actors (owners, managers, associations, citizens etc.) and administrative units (metropolitan city, individual municipalities). Overall, the comparative analysis presented in the chapter allows us to outline some prospects in the field of spatial governance and planning and energy policies, in the direction of considering integrated areas of intervention within the local spatial planning and policy frameworks, and take into account the relation between multiple territorial scales in energy saving and the promotion of renewable energy sources (eco-villages, smart districts, energy communities, etc.) [22].

Fig. 6 The evolution of European and national legislation on energy-environment together with the selected case studies (Source authors’ own elaboration)

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We are aware that the proposed research is limited by the low number of cases considered for the analysis, and that the results discussed above need further confirmation and deepening to be pursued through more comprehensive and systematic comparative research. In addition to this, the scalability and replicability of the selected case studies are also hindered by economic and market barriers, infrastructural and grid-related barriers as well as information and social acceptance barriers. Nevertheless, the identified elements outline a number of promising avenues for future research in the field of national and European urban energy transition practices, stemming from the demonstrated supranational and national awareness of the transdisciplinary and multiscale nature of energy and environmental issues. More in detail, the results of the analysis invite a rethinking of the relationship between environmental and energy issues and spatial governance and planning, to broaden current interpretations into a more comprehensive and integrated perspective. In particular, the shift from a sectoral approach towards more integrated interventions, as well as the promotion of cooperation networks among different urban contexts, highlights the possibility of introducing new configuration of “spatial” policies that act at the multiple territorial scales and foster collaboration and knowledge sharing network among those actors involved in the pursuit of sustainable energy policies, in turn favouring their incremental diffusion on the territory.

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The Value of the House-City System as an Emerging Identity Towards “Circular Architecture” Salvatore Giuffrida, Maria Rosa Trovato, Francesco Nocera, Vittoria Ventura, Cheren Cappello, and Ludovica Nasca

Abstract The economic policy implemented in the prospect of the ecological transition identifies in the building sector one of the main drivers of the circular economy and sustainability in terms of climate change mitigation coming from the energy retrofit on the neighbourhood scale. This study tries to see in the tax measures supporting this process a fundamental opportunity to the historic building fabrics enhancement in view of a more general reform of the house-city-landscape system. The paper refers to the case of a neighbourhood “in transition” characterized by significant unexpressed potential, and receptive of measures aimed at its “green reidentification”. Based on a model of analysis and evaluation of a large building sample, an evaluative synthesis of the energy-environmental retrofit interventions was carried out by means of a DCFA model based on an energy/exergy analysis. Two hypotheses concerning an ordinary and extraordinary tax credit scheme were compared in terms of cost-effectiveness and financial feasibility. Critical observations are proposed about the correct use of public spending and the redistributive effects of the wealth created. Keywords Neighbourhood green identities · Circular architecture · Energy/exergy balance · Building-energy retrofit · Strong/weak sustainability · DCFA

S. Giuffrida (B) · M. R. Trovato · F. Nocera Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Catania, Catania, Italy e-mail: [email protected] M. R. Trovato e-mail: [email protected] F. Nocera e-mail: [email protected] V. Ventura Freelancer, Syracuse, Italy C. Cappello · L. Nasca Department of Architecture Design and Urban Planning, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_10

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1 Introduction 1.1 House-City System, People and Community, Values and Freedom The new dimension of the environmental issue and the current pandemic emergency, are increasing the complexity of the relationship between society and eco-systems, deeply changing the perspective of the individual and collective experience: in the social sense, about dimension and direction of (inter/intra-generational) solidarity; in the economic sense, about the state/market relationship. This form of dialectic between individual and collective dimensions is one of the main references of the Science of value and valuation in the land-urban context. The relationship of the house-city system represents the evolutionary drift of the dialectic between individual axiology and the collective prospects. A liberal politic system supports the individuals’ ability to influence the social agreement which their personhood was created by, then to divert the evolutionary course of the system itself and determining new destinies. Then, the house-city system tells the relationship between standardization and creativity and how the exception is a condition of the evolutionary stability of the norm [1]. Original and persisting norms have been leading human being through his evolutionary path, particularly those concerning the dialectic between the construction of the physical space and the complexification of the social relationships that have progressively accelerated the accumulation of urban-infrastructural capital. In the specific case of the development of settled communities, the exponential accumulation of the value added created by the “systematic overcoming of the norm”—that is, by the not always peaceful exceeding by individual and communities of the physical, psychic, environmental and social states—has, on the one hand continually expanded its limits, on the other hand exceeded the one concerning the reversibility of the processes of creation and accumulation of wealth. If this really proves to be the very ultimate limit, the overcoming of which will lead to a reversal of the economic, political, social and intellectual progress of the human species, if, that is, the prospect of a democracy of reason ended up waning, the exceeding of the physical limit—the definitive loss of the eco-socio-systemic harmony—would identify the original limit of the dominant species and its ultimate destiny, to be dominated by itself for being so powerful as to destroy its own living space. What limit has the human species failed to overcome? What norm was no longer able to create its exception? What puzzle has the individual genius failed to solve in its attempt to leap into the next sphere of freedom? The temptation is to identify this limit in the “carrying capacity” of natural ecosystems, that is, in the inability of human to guard the space that has been given to him, to cultivate it rather than exploit it, to reproduce it rather than impoverish it to the extreme. But human evolution has always been characterized by the ability to

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transform bonds into opportunities and has been truly such when these opportunities have improved living conditions and opened up perspectives of intellectual and behavioural freedom for an ever-greater number of individuals emancipating them from false myths and darkness. Likely, the inability to overcome the ultimate limit is due to a lack of social communication, i.e. the unwillingness to share a project of authentic progress, an “excess of individual freedom” consisting in feeling free to renounce to the freedom of community. Renouncing freedom means having ceased to believe that there are rules by which the subject is defined, be it person or community. Person and community differ from the mere individual and group: by definition, the person (and also the community) is a “subject of free acts capable of novelty”. The rules outlining a subject allow to distinguish between what is new and what is only “other” than “what has already been said and done”. These rules, therefore, are all the more consistent—both internally and with respect to the evolution of civil progress—the more they support change, allowing us to distinguish added value from destroyed value. In fact, overcoming a state is the necessary but not sufficient condition of the surplus: an “ethos” (a set of individual aspirations) does not imply an “ethic” (that is, a system of “inemendable” and shared values), as well as what pleases does not imply what is fair and beautiful. Likewise, in economy a large individual effort (cost) does not necessarily imply neither a high price nor a high value. For example, the construction of a lethal weapon requires great personal sacrifice by which design it, the organization of an efficient and effective production chain, the reform of a foreign policy of an entire nation that reveals new expansionist intentions, and all this involves the overcoming by the promoters and producers of their physical and intellectual limits, and of new organizational, communicative and contractual skills; on the other hand, the use of this weapon will certainly not lead to the progress of civilization or to advantages equally distributed between those who use it and those who are offended. Contrary to his typical being “sapiens”, faced with the climate change drift, human just imagines a typical behaviour of “non sapiens”, adaptation, thus imaging how change must be suffered, rather than avoided, and, implicitly, envisaging how to react rather than how to prevent. Is all that due to scientific, technical, and technological deficiencies, or, ultimately, to lack of communication, coordination, empathy, unity of purpose? At the root of such inadequacies—to recognize the real common enemy, to admit the responsibilities of each, to consider the necessary sacrifices as due—there are both superficial and profound misunderstandings. The first ones come from the presumption that the faults of the few who enjoy unlimited well-being must involve sacrifices to all, a belief unacceptable at all if considered that deepest ecological footprint is due to the over-development of the rich countries and affect the poorest ones not at all responsible for the causes. The latter are due to the less and less grip of the “great narratives” on the motivation of the public, and therefore to the drift of a “postmodern condition” [2] by now structural.

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The consequent spreading of the noblest forms of scepticism, more or less profound, and relativism, cultural or ethical, or pragmatism, are matched by opportunistic deviations that converge in indifference, fatalism and finally blind conspiracy. Contemporary society is so complex that it rejects single-mindedness even in the face of scientific evidence. This complexity is certainly an important resource for the democracy of thought, and a secure barrier to dogmatism and its deviations, even when it is not the result of conscious reasoning. On the other hand, communities that are not yet fully capable of consciously managing these forms of cultural pluralism, disregard their collective responsibility dismissing the responses to the environmental fluctuations as forms of dictatorship— health, environmental etc. Finally, in order to defend free thought from the possible deviations of relativism (is the case where universal suffrage brings a dictator into power), the scientific community should project knowledge itself onto the plane of value consciousness.

1.2 Circular Economy Among the most acclaimed achievements of the “fair science” (no longer just “exact”), Circular Economy (CE) has been identified in the last decade as one of the main premises of sustainability and one of the first modes of ecological transition. A preliminary aspect of this double implication is recognized in one of the first, although not the most outstanding definitions of CE [3] provided by Ellen MacArthur Foundation [4]. “A circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by intention and design. It replaces the ‘end-of-life’ concept with restoration, shifts towards the use of renewable energy, eliminates the use of toxic chemicals, which impair reuse, and aims for the elimination of waste through the superior design of materials, products, systems, and, within this, business models”. This definition is consistent with a prevalence of CE guidelines rooted in environmental economics and industrial ecology and refers to a precise characterization of economy which recognizes the ability to “bend” the direction of production processes—traditionally linear—until the ends (inputs and outputs) overlap, in order to “close the cycles” within the limits of two basic capacities: • the first, natural, is the metabolism of ecosystems; this capacity is currently unequal with respect to both the extent and the quality of anthropogenic pressure; • the second, technological, is the prospect of concentrating renewable energies, spread by definition; this ability is unequal compared to current lifestyles whose perspective is the unlimited increase of the exosomatic component of available energy, a prelude to a civilization of machines in which robotization will totally replace the human manual labor.

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In essence, the above definition refers to the possibility that the transformational action carried out by the individual creative intentionality by the production unit (the firm) can design sustainable processes able to restore harmony between man and nature, thus outlining a business-centered pattern [5–7]. The motivation supporting a company to reconvert its corporate policy comes from the economies of innovation, integration, scale, specialization, agglomeration etc., which can be generated by turning the undesirable outputs into new inputs, thus keeping the anthropic activity within the limits of biosphere metabolism. The rethinking of development models, with a view to converting linear production processes, “cradle to grave”, to circular processes, “cradle to cradle”, imposes a revolution for design called today to deal not only with the final goods, but with the entire production process, evaluating the costs in terms of loss of raw materials and energy [8]. According to the principles of the circular economy, some aspects of the metabolisation of the ecological-environmental issue into behaviours, widespread practices and relationships more or less coordinated with environmental fluctuations, have been deepened in the formation of new guidelines in the overall policy of sustainability of the European Union [3, 8–12]. These are linked to the adoption of the document “Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals” in 2015, and the Green Deal in 2019 (Fig. 1), which, even before this new awareness of the actual scope of the environmental issue [13, 14], have consolidated the foundations of a better coordinated and more specifically oriented geo-political commitment [15]. The adaptation of the design to these “green-oriented” general premises and the connected best practices, therefore, involves the urban environment in its dual declination of physical space and social space [2]. In fact, many of the global monetary policies are today supported by the European funding aimed at both the economic recovery (Recovery Fund) (Italian Government 2020) and ecological transition, of which one of the primary beneficiaries is the house-city-landscape system [8, 16–24].

Fig. 1 The main European policies for sustainability in the last two decades

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This New (green) Deal, while it opens significant perspectives for the city, the territory, mobility, meeting and further supporting the emerging lifestyles and a new sense of housing—oriented to the perspectives of environmental and social sustainability (inclusion and access)—on the other hand raises issues and concerns about the inflationary and distortive effects in the building sector, and redistributive processes both between different economic sectors and between “state and country” [25–28]. In recent years, the progressive deepening of the entropic watershed, has continued to consolidate the awareness that the environmental issue consists mainly in the increasingly evident intra-generational inequalities, which is the trigger factor of unsustainability, but in reality, a model of development that is unfair over space can only be the same also over time. The presence of a “common enemy” is never desirable in an extended and complex social system, because the coarse grain of a unanimous array of subjects and interests until just before in collision, does not hold back the fine grain of the many small iniquities to which this effort gives rise: in these cases, such iniquities pass over in silence [29]. In synthesis, wars are never the best way to increase social cohesion, but only the final phase of a progressive decline of democracy: truth declines, the sphere of responsibility deforms. The main form of intra-generational disparity in the economic-evaluative perspective relates to the size in volume and value of the social fixed capital [5, 30–33]. This reserve of potentiality becomes actuality, that is, availability of financial resources assuming the most abstract shape, the monetary one [34]. This happens today in the geo-political context of the archipelago-economies where in a different way the contrast between state and market is regulated and it is established from time to time if and to what extent the “needs of capital” prevail over the “capital needs”, that is, credit limits are established by fixing, in essence, interest rates and conditionality.

1.3 Closing the Circle in the Energy-Entropic Approach Circular Economy is a prospective approach to sustainability whose relevance and success depends on the evolution of the above relationships between the consistency of norms and novelty. It can be referred to the general model of the New Economics [35] identifying Matter, Energy and Information as the original matrices of the added value, and outlining the trade-off between dissipation of matter and energy, and creation of new Information, that is of “novelty as surplus of shape”. The transformation of the natural eco-systems (Fig. 2) beyond the limits of their carrying capacity makes irreversible the communication gap between human being and nature that social communication, of which the economy is part, transfigures in social value through a process of progressive recoding. In summary: according to the first principle of thermodynamics, the closing of the circle cannot take place on the natural level, but on the cultural one and in terms

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b

THE THREE SURPLUSES TRIANGLE

165 THE BLACK BOX ∂∂ ∂∂ Output

Input 1. Natural or thermodynamic Surplus

Input Matter

∂∂ Energy

Information

Matter

entropy neg-entropy neg-entropy

Output Matter Energy Information

∂∂

∂∂ Energy

neg-entropy

neg-entropy

Information 2. Bio-genealogical Surplus

neg-entropy

Energy ∂∂

neg-entropy neg-entropy

3. Historic-cultural Surplus

Matter ∂∂

entropy

Information ∂∂

neg-entropy

weak sustainability strong sustainability

Degraded matter and energy: waste and pollutants

Fig. 2 a The “Three surpluses triangle”; b The black box: a strong/weak circular pattern (Source [35], modified by authors)

of the general category of capital, i.e., through the transfiguration of natural capital into cultural capital, according to the metaphors of the second and third principles of thermodynamics: the architectural-urban surplus of shape is the result of this transfiguration. In this process, money plays a double role: if the building approach prevails over the real estate one, money is used as a funding tool; vice versa, if the real estate approach prevails over the building one, money becomes the ultimate end of the development process: in the first case, money is used to build houses, in the second case the houses are used to make money. Again, in the first case, productive investment generates income gains within the limits of normal profit and according to the rules of competition, in the second case speculative investment generates capital gains outside those rules and above those limits. Also at this stage the “rules” of the competitive market generate the “forms” of the imperfect market; when the latter are consolidated into new rules hindering civil progress, they must be further reinterpreted in the light of the even more general objective of creating social capital, a form of accumulation of the surplus of social product above subsistence, profit and rent [36]. The last act of this “ascension of the norm towards form” is the transformation of the social capital into the further form of the capitalized benefits for future by reinterpreting growth as reduction of the ecological footprint, of the rate of transformation of non-reproducible resources, of land consumption. These renunciations imply new investments in the protection of heritage and landscape through decision-making processes based on appropriate social/temporal solidarity rates. This is, today, the most advanced prospect of a circular economy looking beyond the issues of technologies and processes of reuse of materials and energy saving.

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In such a prospect, creation does not consist in replacing the house-city system, but in knowing how to make it always new, in increasing its attitude to be always reinterpreted.

1.4 Contents and Aims In the light of the weak sustainability, implied by the progressive substitution of natural capital with social-cultural capital in the redevelopment of the house-city-landscape system this study proposes an analysis-valuation-programming model aimed at verifying the aptitude to the building-energy retrofit of a historic neighbourhood of the old town of Syracuse (Italy). On the basis of a large dataset that reports a wide range of information units— observations, characteristics, attributes and evaluations—aimed at the buildingenergy performance of the analysed sample, a structured set of economic-evaluation elaborations to support the ecological transition process of the neighbourhood are proposed. This urban context is characterized not only by building-architectural performance shortages, but also by a reduced confidence on the part of property owners and investors about the real prospects that a landscape and urban context of overall and widespread value can convey in the medium term. In this prospect a detailed experimentation about the technological, energy and exergy evaluation of the building stock was carried out on the building scale, aimed at the overall evaluation of cost-effectiveness and financial sustainability of energy retrofit interventions considering the two different tax credit regimes today supporting the building and real estate economy, envisaged by National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) [37].

2 Method With a view to a summary and overall assessment of the energy-environmental retrofit of a large sample of the urban building fabric of the Borgata di Santa Lucia in Syracuse, analyses were carried out on the scale of the building unit, with the individuation, identification, description, and characterisation of a sample from a building and energy point of view. The whole building stock of the district consists of 1277 Architectural Units (AUs), 792 of which have been identified as for their internal constructive, functional and formal consistence and characterized according to 9 macro-characteristics disaggregated into 87 items and 145 detailed observations (Fig. 3). This stage provided the stock of information supporting the individuation of the building-energy types (Fig. 4) to be associated to the work-packages including the insulation and plant improvement works for the building-energy retrofit of the neighbourhood.

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1

Identification

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2

Dimensions

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

3

Urban Context

22 23 24

4

Position in the building

25 26 27 28

5

Technology

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

6

State of maintenance

37 38 39 40 41 42

Census Section Block Architectural Unit Address Longitude Latitude Number of properties Occupied area Perimeter Gross surface area Number of storeys Volume Total height Main facade width Other exposed facade width Courtyard Surface of external facades Cylinder surface Number of openings Openings surface Location Intended uses State of usage Panoramic view Outlook Brightness Structural system Windows/doors frames Dampers Other frames at ground floor Finishing and plasters Lambris Finishing ground floor Finishing upper floors Decorations ground floor Decorations upper floors Ground floor external frames Internal windows ground floor External windows upper floors Internal windows upper floors Roofs Grounds and downpipes

167 43 Type 44 Age 45 Facade arrangement 46 Facade decorations

7

Architectural value

47 Openings decorations 48 Balconies decorations 49 Type of roof 50 Covering 51 Presence of plants on facades 52 Presence of cubage accretions 53 Wall thickness 54 Wall Transmittance 55 Window Transmittance 58 Roof Transmittance 60 Ground floor Transmittance 62 Coefficient of heat transfer by transmission (HT)

8

Energy performance

63 Coefficient of heat transfer by ventilation (HV) 64 Building energy demand (Qh) 65 Winter energy performance index 66 Total Surface/volume ratio 67 Exposed Surface/volume ratio 68 HT/Volume ratio 69 HV/Volume ratio 70 Qh/Volume ratio 71 Building exergy demand (Qh) 72 Building-Environment Carnot Coefficient 73 Plant Carnot Coefficient 74 Building Exergy load 75 Plant Exergy load 76 Heater emission efficiency 77 Distribution efficiency 78 Boiler efficiency

9

Exergy performance

79 Heater losses 80 Distribution losses 81 Boiler energy demand 82 Fossil fuel quality index 83 Primary energy fossil fuel index 84 Exergy load generation system 85 Primary exergy demand 86 Total exergy demand 87 Total exergy efficiency

Fig. 3 Characterization hierarchic pattern of the building fabric sample: macro-characteristics and items levels

On this information basis, an energy/exergy analysis and performance evaluation, supporting the economic-financial validation of the above-mentioned work-packages was carried out.

2.1 Energy/Exergy Performance Valuation According to the above Matter-Energy-Information approach, the methodological synthesis proposed so far has indicates the items of the general urban shape framework within which the energy/exergy analysis has been carried out with reference to both the primary energy demand and the exergy balance [38]. Primary Energy Demand Calculation The primary energy demand Qh for each Building Unit was calculated as follows: Qh = 0.024 · DD · (HT + HV )

(1)

where: HT and HV are the global coefficient of heat exchange respectively by transmission and for ventilation (W /K); DD are the degree days corresponding to the considered climate area:

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Fig. 4 Identification of the building-energy types

HT =

n 

Si · Ui

(2)

1

where: Si (sq m) is the extent of the ith envelope enclosing the heated gross volume without taking into account the other rooms heated at the same temperature; Ui (W/sq mK) is the thermal transmittance of the building: HV = 0.34 · Vn

(3)

where: n is the number of air changes, 0.5 times/h; Vn is the net volume of the climate-controlled room, considered 70% of the gross volume:

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EPi = (Qh /Sn )/ηg

(4)

where: Qh (kWh) is the building thermal energy demand; Sn (sq m) is the building net surface area; ηg is the overall average seasonal energy efficiency of the building (ISO 2007). Exergy balance Exergy analysis is assumer now as the link between natural and cultural aspects of CE. Exergy analysis allows to identify the “irrational” use of energy that can be reduced through a more accurate design of plants and production systems. The exergy has been calculated as follows: 

  To Eo > 0 ⇒ Eo = Q 1 − Q 0 Eo = Q 1 − ⇒ Q>0 T

Incoming Exergy Outgoing Heat

(5)

Incoming Exergy Incoming Heat

(6)

2.2 Economic and Financial Assessment Discounted Cash-Flow Analysis (DCFA) is an economic-financial approach to the valuation of investments implying internal and external constraints as well as expectations from the investors. This type of analysis consists in the construction of economic and financial performance indices of a stream of net income characterized by a specific temporal and monetary shape/dimension as well as, in the present prospect of the ecological transition, the ecosystem shape/dimension. The temporal shape/dimension includes the stream of annual cash flows over the time horizon and consists in the structure of the investment, as follows: The monetary shape/dimension includes also the expected capital gains in terms of real estate market price increase. The ecosystem shape/dimension concerns the re-interpretation of discount rate, time horizon and some financial indices, such as Elasticity, Average Period and Discounted Payback Period in the prospect of sustainability and social inclusion. Cost-Benefit Analysis is one of the most significant examples of the DCFA extension, for considering variables and accounting methods related to non-market resources, to be evaluated by means of indirect monetary measurements [39]. Basing on the above-mentioned detailed information stock, the DCFA was applied to the work-packages aimed at walls and roofs insulation, window frames replacement, and condensing boiler instalment for each AU. Investment and operating costs and revenues from incentives and savings accounted separately for each work-package and together.

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Net Present Value (NPV), Total Rate of Return (TRR), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Discounted Payback Period, Average Period (AP) and Elasticity (E) have been calculated in order to compare two hypotheses concerning ordinary and extraordinary tax credit regimes in the prospect of a further in-depth analysis by which selecting the AUs to associate one or the other regime with. At this early stage, the economic-financial valuations of the two opposite scenarios (only ordinary or extraordinary regime) provide the worst and best prospect of the whole neighbourhood retrofit programme supposed.

3 Material 3.1 The “Borgata of Santa Lucia” in Syracuse The “Borgata di Saint Lucia” in Syracuse (Fig. 5) is a 40 hectares urban area developed between the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century. Its urban fabric presents many aspects of homogeneity as for settlement pattern, typology, morphology, age, decorum, although dotted by a set still content of tampering of different nature and entities. Until the seventeenth century, this area preserved a typically rural land-scape, characterized by small properties cultivated by farmers.

Fig. 5 The neighbourhood of Borgata di Santa Lucia in Syracuse, territorial framework

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During the second half of the nineteenth century, a process of expansion of the village started in order to host the inhabitants coming from Ortigia, the ancient walled city, which had been affected by a rapid population increase that had caused serious health and housing problems [40]. The urban development of the neighbourhood (Fig. 6) therefore starts right after the demolition of the walls of Ortigia, around 1865. Later the first buildings were built, which were usually small Terranean houses for farmers, fishermen and carters. At the end of the 80s of the XIX century the area was affected by an intense building activity, carried out mainly through private lots [41]. The growth process and the progressive saturation of the blocks within the lots has produced over time building stratification with different levels of consolidation and densification in the varies areas of the neighbourhood. Until the beginning of the twentieth century, the process of building had concerned just the ground floors, but in the following years the lack of an effective regulation led to the addition of further storeys in many buildings, giving rise to quite significant skylines and facades changes and, in some cases, to the saturation of the courtyards. The building fabric of the Borgata results from the progressive sedimentation of building units within a very strong structural mesh according to binding type-morphological relationships that in the last 50 years has been interrupted by the replacement of original buildings with new tower-type constructions. The Borgata today is characterized by a not very harmonious building organization, with differences in the number of storeys, in the decorum and functional logic of the buildings. The area has increasingly widespread cases of abandonment mainly due to the lack of compliance of housing to the changed needs of users.

Fig. 6 The evolution settlement of the neighbourhood of Borgata di Santa Lucia in Syracuse

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3.2 Fabrics in Transition The dialectic between “historic city” and “beautiful city” concerns the unexpressed potential characterizing the urban fabrics in transition. This aptitude to transformation is limited by physical “inertia” and presence of architectural value. In many cases the historic city coincided with the “beautiful city” in so far as its beauty reflected the progress of freedoms and the predominance of rights over privileges. Nevertheless, in many cases in which the concentration of wealth in cities has been matched by an asymmetric distribution in the city/country relationship, and in the ratio of rent, profits, and wages. Today, this asymmetry concerns a fourth distributive variable, the productivity rate of the architectural-environmental heritage, as for its capacity to contribute to the ecological transition, and to the urban landscape keeping. In the complex and articulated context of the old town of Syracuse, the Borgata di Santa Lucia, is the ideal location to test this potential especially in the current favourable climate of the European tax policy supporting the economies bent by pandemic [42].

4 Application and Results Some early queries of the Database provide information on the entire houseneighbourhood system outline the dimensional homogeneity characteristics, prevailing typology, relationships between the components outlining the energy performance profile and influencing the work-package, and so on (Fig. 7).

Fig. 7 Quantitative characterization of building sample

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Fig. 8 Qualitative characterization of building sample

Queries aimed at qualitative features, synthesize the relationship between building fabric and social fabric, measuring the gap of total value compared to the intrinsic capabilities, and the opportunities coming from the subsidies plan in force (Fig. 8).

4.1 Energy/Exergy Analysis Results Due the low global coefficients of heat exchange HT and HV due in large part to the prevalence of small buildings, also given the climate, the absolute value of the energy demand Qh is low; opposite, the average Surface/Volume ratio ranging from 25 to 30% results in higher energy requirements per unit volume and an overall unfavourable energy performance index (Fig. 9). The exergy analysis prefigures large margins of improvement of the building-plant system in its current configuration; any modest increase in exergy efficiency is not to be neglected for the sake of proper energy management. The graphs of Fig. 10 show that the also the only change of the typology of the system of generation of energy would allow a substantial increase in exergy. Wide margins for improvement it is still possible by acting punctually on every single component of the “building-plant” system, which is precisely the target of exergy analysis as regards the management of wealth flows.

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Fig. 9 Results of the calculation of energy requirements Exergy load

Exergy load of the system

Total exergy request

Exergy distroyed

Methane consumption

Energy/Exergy performance

Fig. 10 Results of the calculation of exergy

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Ordinary Regime

Extra-ordinary Regime Discounted Cash Flow

Discounted Cash Flow 5,000,000

5,000,000

-

-

-5,000,000

-5,000,000

Masonries Window Frames Roofs

-10,000,000

Masonries Window Frames Roofs

-10,000,000

Boilers

Boilers -15,000,000

-15,000,000 0

5

10

15 years

20

25

0

30

5

10

15 years

20

25

30

Cumulated Discounted Cash Flow

Cumulated Discounted Cash Flow 4,000,000

10,000,000

2,000,000 5,000,000

-2,000,000

-

-4,000,000 -6,000,000 Masonries Window Frames Roofs Boilers

-8,000,000 -10,000,000 -12,000,000

Masonries Window Frames Roofs Boilers

-5,000,000 -10,000,000

-14,000,000 -15,000,000

-16,000,000 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

years

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

years

Fig. 11 Graphical syntheses of the economic and financial analysis of the four work-packages

4.2 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis The cash flow of the four main energy-environmental retrofit interventions is represented in Fig. 11 in terms of nominal and discounted cash flows and according to ordinary and extraordinary tax credit hypotheses. The ordinary tax credit regime is characterized by a range of subsidies for the different type of work, ranging from 50 to 65% of the total investment cost, divided into 10-years. The extraordinary tax credit regime strongly encourages the building-energy retrofit by covering (and even exceeding 10%) the total investment cost; the subsidy may be granted provided that the works respect fixed energy performance targets. The comparison of the two regimes highlights the large gap of cost-effectiveness, by different work packages and in total (Figs. 9and10). In addition to the first three well-known cost-effectiveness indices reported in Table 1, measuring the preferability in case of extraordinary subsidy regime, the other indices deserve some remarks. Except for the Average Period (not significant in the ordinary regime) the DPP and the Elasticity provide information about the influence of the annual cash flows distribution over the time span, in particular considering that—differently from the ordinary regime supposing the subsidy to be spread over a 10-year time span—the extraordinary one allows a four-year time span, as displayed also in Fig. 12.

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Table 1 Main economic-financial indices of the DCFA in the two tax credit regimes (r = 3%) Tax credit regime

Cost-effectiveness and financial sustainability indices

Ordinary

Extraordinary

Net present value (000e)

−661

22,072

Total rate of return

−1.6%

56.5%

Internal rate of return

−2.8%

112.6%

Discounted pay back period (y)

30

4

Average period (y)

Not significant

9

Elasticity

1.8

0.6

ordinary

ordinary

extraordinary

ordinary

20

10

0

-10

cumulated discounted Cash Flows (mln EURO)

discounted Cash Flows (mln EURO)

Net Present Value (mln EURO

30

-20 0%

extraordinary

20

40

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50 5%

10%

15%

0

5

10

discount rate

15

20

25

30

years

extraordinary

30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

years

Fig. 12 Economic and financial analysis of the four types of works

In particular, an orthodox approach to the financial valuation of the investment negatively assesses high values of both DPP and elasticity. A heterodox approach [21], on the other hand, reinterprets this “norm” as the “form” that intertemporal solidarity gives to the neighbourhood as a whole due to the high degree of sustainability by means of which a unitary coordinated and extended package of works can characterize the identity of the neighbourhood in the prospect of shared sustainability objectives.

5 Discussions and Conclusions The monetary valuation carried out by means of the DCFA of the investments in the building-energy retrofit of a neighbourhood of the old town of Syracuse (Italy), was an early approach to measuring the appropriateness of the economic support to the building-energy retrofit subsided by Italian Government within the framework of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

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Further large-scale analyses of the effects of sectoral interdependencies will be able to measure the extent to which direct and indirect benefits will be able to justify support of the housing sector to cope with the effects of the economic crisis triggered by pandemic. On the other hand, extra-economic analyses will be more appropriate to assess the correspondence between the wealth accumulated in the building-property heritage in the forms of building energy retrofit, and the social and cultural impact that can be achieved in terms of a greater overall identity of the urban units from the perspective of sustainability. A conclusive reflection coming from the results of the DCFA, highlights the ineffectiveness of the ordinary tax credit regime, and the “over cost-effectiveness” of the extraordinary one, nowadays distorting the building sector as for the sudden demandpull inflation and for the uncontrolled territorial redistributive effects between marginal and central area on both the territorial and national scale. In fact, the two apparently diverging conditions (ineffectiveness and overeffectiveness) converge in distracting potential fundings from the warmer (mostly southern, then weaker) areas thus concentrating the public expenditure in the richer ones. In the latter case, such a large transfer of public fundings to the building and real estate sector should be compensated by a consequent and adequate tax system. Furthermore, from the point of view of the overall sustainability of the measures to support the energy and buildings retrofit on the neighbourhood scale, and with reference to the deeper meaning of circular architecture, a final reflection concerns, on the one hand, the fourth principle of thermodynamics, and on the other, some aspects of communication theory. According to the general sense of the fourth principle of thermodynamics, basing on which “in a closed system the entropy of matter must tend towards a maximum”, it is likely that the massive replacement of building components and plants, creates an unsustainable impact on the building waste system, especially in the climate of the excess demand triggered by the possibility of the “assignment of tax credit” to building companies, banks and so on. This point confirms the need to differentiate the subsidies in relation to the essence and the fundamentals of circular economy with respect to both energy and (especially) matter. With reference to the aspects of communication theory applied to the conservation of the historical heritage, it must be acknowledged that “the Matter of restoration” [43], that is masonry and building components, need to be considered as the physical channel of intergenerational transmission of the message of the local building tradition [44]. The gap between technological performances and aesthetic value making this matter obsolete and, together with it, the building tradition, is metaphorized by the “noise” that reduces the probability that the “memory message” reaches its destination. These last remarks, as referred to the new value theory outlined in Sect. 1, project this early research achievements towards the prospect of further studies concerning the several issues of the urban and regional inequalities created by a subsidy tool unconcerned with the fairness of the urban-land policies, but rather focused just on

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an abstract and not robustly founded inter-generational solidarity likely increasing the current and growing societal, economic and environmental polarization.

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The Economic Evaluation of Urban Ecosystem Services into Policy-Making Processes Francesco Sica, Pierluigi Morano, Maria Rosaria Guarini, and Francesco Tajani

Abstract In view of the uncontrolled cities urbanization, climate change and, last but not least, the pandemic crisis from COVID-19, there is the need to implement intervention practices at the territorial scale by an integrated sustainable approach. This to consolidate the different aspects of the design system made by interacting elements in the respect of the environmental, social and economic dimension. To this, the ecosystem services are of international interest with regard to the functional link between the environment and sustainable development, so as to identify methodological and operational issues at the basis of the most current research in the economic evaluation field. With this contribution it is intended to provide an evaluation framework to support public–private decision-makers in establishing the most significant initiatives of sustainable urban development, taking into account the impacts that they would generate on the reference urban context in terms of ecosystem services supply. The proposed framework is developed in a win–win logic capable of merging the different interests of the stakeholders, as well as the purpose of supporting the ecological transition and environmental protection of urban ecosystems according to an integrated-multidimensional pathway. The proposed evaluation process took note of the theoretical, methodological, and operational issues underlying the economic valuation of urban ecosystem services and their addition into policy-making processes.

Author Contribution: F.S., P.M., M.R.G., F.T. have conceived, structured and written the article in equal part, as well as they have deepened review and editing the proposed article. F. Sica (B) · M. R. Guarini · F. Tajani Department of Architecture and Design (DIAP), University of Rome “Sapienza”, Rome, Italy e-mail: [email protected] M. R. Guarini e-mail: [email protected] F. Tajani e-mail: [email protected] P. Morano Department of Science of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Polytechnic University of Bari, Bari, Italy e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_11

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The economic policy implications by the proposed framework will be emphasized in the concluding section along with research perspectives. Keywords Ecosystem services · Policy-making processes · Economic evaluation · Integrated framework

1 Introduction Since the end of the XX century there was a shared interest in international scientific research on the relationship between nature-city. This in: (i) defining the multiple effects by ecosystems on urban settelments (ecosystem services); (ii) identifying methods and tools to estimate them in urban areas; (iii) implementing economic models focused on the effects that natural environment produces on the socioeconomic conditions at territorial scale [6]. The aims are favouring reflections on an alternative conceptualization of the link between built-natural environment, society and economy. Not based only on standardized design rules, but also on the effects produced by the design solution on the territory in terms of ecosystem services [19, 20]. Mooney and Ehrlich [39] link the ecosystem services knowledge to the work Man and Nature by George Perkins Marsh of 1864. In Marsh’s 1864 contribution a scientific perspective is offered about the interdependence between anthropogenic and natural system. The authors highlighted the functionality of the territorial-social frame to the ecosystem development and its change [39]. As far as in the 1970 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) report entitled Report of Study of Critical Environmental Problems the impact of human activities on global climate and terrestrial ecological systems was analyzed [57]. Wasteman in How much are nature’s services worth? (1977) addressed not only the society’s dependence by ecosystems, but also the need for an economic evaluation of their services. The ecologist Wasteman illustrated some examples of evaluation exercises, making a distinction between multiple benefits typoligies. The researcher dealt with natural «goods» and «services». With «goods» Wastemann meant the resources necessary for the material sustenance of society, i.e. the tangible benefits that nature offers mankind. Instead, with «services» he related to intangible benefits supporting social welfare and local economic development (Wasteman 1977). In the work of Wasteman (1977) some of the main issues regarding ecosystem services assessment were highlighted. Namely the: (i) assignment of an economic value to natural services; (ii) refinition of techniques for ecosystem assessments; (iii) recognition of ecosystem services as a component to be estimated also in the economic project evaluations. The Environmental Economics movement (1992) offers an interpretation of the relationship between economy and environment based on human economic processes impacts on nature and quality of social life. Compared to the neo-classical economics focused on the analysis and description of the economic-productive

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system in managerial terms, the Environmental Economy (1997) formalize the interdependencies between the environment with the production sector, society and economy. In it, the concept of ecosystem services begins to be considered in a perspective not only sectoral, or of natural sciences and economics compartments, but in the perspective to distinguish alternative forms of contamination with other knowledges. Through the environmental economy the discussion on «types» services have taken off, especially in relation to the spread of sustainable development issues and the need to act in the urban areas in a systemic way under multiple objectives. In the contribution The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital by Costanza et al. [10] a monetary evaluation of urban ecosystem services with explicit reference to forestry projects was carry out. The authors included the evaluations of the effects that the natural system together with the anthropic system produce at local scale. These with the aim to involve the ecosystem services assessment in economic analyses. The work of [10] represent the background to the publication of many other scientific contributions concerning the elaboration of conceptual models of reference to support the integration of ecosystem services assessment in the transformative change of the landscape, urbanized or not [4, 9, 14, 21, 32]. In addition to the theoretical contributions found in the reference literature, the logical-operational integration methods of ecosystem services assessment in decision-making systems for land development were also deepened in research projects at international and/or European level. Among these the URBES call (2011– 2014), or the Urban Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. It was promoted by BiodivERsA, i.e. the network promoting European research on biodiversity, ecosystem services and Nature-based solutions which «[…] focuses particularly on functional diversity, urban ecosystem services, institutions, economics, and resilience science. It strives to translate cross-disciplinary research insights into principles, land use scenarios, landscape designs and applications. This project is innovative in integrating monetary and non-monetary valuation techniques, focusing the attention on the implications on the governance of urban landscapes» (https://www.biodiversa. org/121, last accessed 07/02/2022). In 2012, it was also created an intergovernmental research network by the United Nations—the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services—which aimed to strengthen the interchange between science and decision-making in the field of biodiversity and the ecosystem services assessment [45]. The development of research projects of this type shows an interest to take account of ecosystem services in the territorial development practices [5, 25, 26, 29–31, 34, 43, 46, 48]. The study by Kremer et al. [34] who focus on the gap between eco-systemic service assessment and decision-making systems is meaningful. Kremer et al. [34] highlighted that the intergation of ecosystem service into policy-making processes: • it can be a useful interpretative tool to express the dependence of the social and economic systems on the natural components;

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• it supports to recognize, also in economic terms, the contribution of the environmental component to the improvement of living statements for human beings and to local economic development. In addition, they highlight the lack of logical-operational translation of the ecosystem services study and the need to encourage the use of: • tools to support design decisions and pro-gramming of interventions according to an eco-systemic approach; • indicators for the estimation of eco-systemic services contextual to consolidated urban areas can be of sup-port to operate on the territory in relation to the project scale of interest and in compliance with the objectives of urban sustainability.

2 Work Aim The notes by Kremer et al. [34] provide the conceptual basis on which the methodological-operational considerations developed in the following chapters are structured. To define an evaluative framework aimed at interventions designed through an integrated ecosystem approach, namely the main content of the current contribution, we intend to bring, at first, a survey of the methodologies and tools most widely used in the literature for ecosystem services estimation in urban areas. The phase of reconnaissance is preparatory to the description of the proposed evaluation framework with which we want to support the planning phases and interventions programming in the cities on the basis of the multiple benefits that the inclusion and/or conservation of natural elements is able to source on the territory. From the recognition exercise of the reference literature the priciple aspects and the corresponding operative steps caracterizing the proposed evalutiona framework were taken out. The structure of the work is organized as follows. In Sect. 3, after an introduction to methods and tools review, the main evaluation approaches (3.1) and the tools used as a means of integrating the evaluation of ecosystem services in decision-making processes at the territorial and urban scale (3.2) are described. The Sect. 4 illustrates the phases characterizing the proposed evaluation framework aimed at supporting the formulation of convenience judgments by public/private subjects, taking into account the economic and non-economic value of urban ecosystem services. Finally, in Sect. 5 the conclusions of the work are outlined, highlighting the political and economic implications arising from the use of the proposed methodological framework, as well as future research perspectives.

3 Material and Methods The gap between ecosystem services and the corresponding operability is substantiated as one of the key issue of the scientific debate on the evaluation of ecosystem services and their integration into the decision-making processes at the basis of urban

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transformation. It has been highlighted in the scientific literature of reference that the rationale for the emergence of ecosystem services must be linked to the objective of directing public operators to operate on own territory in order to preserve the natural heritage while ensuring a good level of life quality of the people and the development of the territorial economic system. The transposition of the evaluation mechanisms of ecosystem services in the political-planning framework according to a systemic logic is articulated and complex [5, 12, 13, 17, 21, 23, 35, 45]. This is due principally to: i.

difficulty in defining the meaning of «ecosystem service» that can be generally recognized by the scientific community; ii. lack of shared methods and uniform scientific databases through which to measure and extrapolate data on the provision of ecosystem services; iii. inability to appreciate the benefits that natural resources generate on the land in the short-medium analysis period [21, 35]. Alongside these, other reasons pertain to the still weak relationship between scientific knowledge about ecosystem services and their functional relationship with the planning and design mechanisms, especially in urban settings [11, 44, 46]. In order to compile with these issues, via the scientific panel of reference it is possible to trace multiple tools to support the analysis of ecosystem services and their usefulness in the evaluation of urban transformation projects. For the characterization of the main tools to support the analysis and integration of ecosystem services in urban economic analysis, a briefly review is made. A search query is conducted (on 16/01/2022) on exploration engines, e.g. Scopus, by typing, at first time, the «ecosystem services analysis» and in a second one «ecosystem services decision-making tools». By the review research in Scopus based on the previous keywords, in the following sub-pragraphs we will address in detail the most common approaches, as well as the main tools supporting decision-making systems linked with the ecosystem services assessment.

3.1 Methodolodigical Approaches for Assessing Urban Ecosystem Services In light of the bibliographic references collected (1316 articles with reviews), it appears that 16% of the papers address the issue of geo-referenced estimation of ecosystem services at the urban level, emphasizing the importance of having a spatially explicit informative set describing spatially sevaral ecosystem services. Among the methodologies for estimating ecosystem services in relation to the reference context most frequently used in the case studies examined it appears the value transfer method. This procedure of geo-localization of the values of ecosystem services is based on the assumption of taking as reference the results of analysis on ecosystem services relating to sites of investigation that from the environmental,

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social, economic and demographic point of view are comparable to the territorial context of study. Other surveying procedures are based only on the possibility of using some proxy variables (for example, but not limited to, Night lights, types of land use, population density) as «filter-data» to support the processes of ecosystem services estimation. Through the use of proxy variable, it is possible to express the geo-referenced value of multiple variables representative of the socio-economic and environmental system of the territory. With regard to Night lights, since the beginning of the twentieth century, Nighttime light data are useful for economic, social and environmental analysis. It has been shown that night lights can provide indications on the level of productivity of an area. Doll et al. [15] analyzing the night images of eleven European cities have shown the significant interdependence between the amount of lights and the corresponding nominal GDP. Sutton et al. [51] come to the same conclusion by taking as object some cities of the United States, India, China and Turkey, and comparing the corresponding values of GDP with the levels of brightness. Other applications in the economic field concern investigations aimed at establishing the level of correlation between the intensity of light and the Community Housing Prices (CHP). Experiments of this type are conducted by Li et al. [7] in Whuan City (China). The study by Li et al. proves the existence of correlation between Night-time light data and Community Housing Prices. In addition to being a proxy variable for the level of land wealth, light emission can provide significant information on human settlements. Sutton [50] demonstrates the interdependence between number of lights and housing density. This is done by comparing population data, taken from the U.S. Census, and satellite imagery depicting lights at night in some cities. The Gridded Population of the World (GPW), the most widely used database on global population density for the development of analyses of global population growth, is constructed using night-time light data as a proxy variable for the housing capacity of a territory. Other applications of night-light emissions relate to the mapping and measurement of urban boundaries within which cities develop. Imhoff et al. [27] study the correlation between night-time light data and urban growth. At last, night-time lights allow to highlight and quantify the different energy consumption of the cities. Elvidge et al. [16] attest the existence of strong correlation between night-time lighting and energy consumption in some American cities. Similar studies are conducted in India [33], Brazil [2] and Japan [36]. In the field of ecological-environmental studies, there is also an increase in research in which nighttime lighting data are used to ensure that air quality levels are monitored based on the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere [37].

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3.2 Decision-Making Tools On the other hand, the 84% of the total articles and reviews deal with decisionmaking tools to support the planning processes and interventions programming on the territory in ecosystem services perspective. From the survey some decision-making tools, such as the Toolkit for Ecosystem Services Site-based Assessment or i-Tree Software, allow the operator to measure the ecosystem services related to the improvement of environmental quality as a function of the existing tree cover; others, such as Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services, allow to estimate the value of recreational services due to the presence of urban parks. Some, like the Co$ting Nature, Natural Capital Planning Tool (NCPT) and/or logical-mathematical tools, as the A Mathematical Programming Language (AMPL), which allow the resolution of optimization models in Operations Research, integrate the evaluation of ecosystem services with the socio-economic characteristics of the urban context through the construction of functional relationships between variables of interest. With regard to evaluation problems referred specifically to urban forestry projects, we also note the widespread use of multicriteria analysis tools [28] including the: Analytic Hierarchy Processes (AHP) for the selection among diverse urban forestry management options [49], Techniques for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS [8], and Goal Programming. The Natural Capital Planning (NCPT) tool, created in March 2018 by the Consultancy for Environmental Economics and Policy (CEEP) is an outlier. This is based on the calculation of the environmental net-gain by the generic urban transformation project. The tools proposed by Operations Research are also particularly useful as they allow to solve evaluation problems through the use of logical-mathematical paradigms able to provide an optimal solution to the question posed. In particular, it is possible to solve many evaluation problems by structuring mathematical models of multi-objective optimization based on principles of both Continuous Linear Programming (CLP) and Discrete Linear Programming (DLP) [55]. Specifically, CLP can be an effective tool to solve cases in which it is necessary to define the amount of monetary resources to be allocated among forestry projects [22]. Instead, DLP allows to solve both cases of selection among urban areas that are better suited to be redeveloped with forestation [40], and cases related, for example, to the composition of the best portfolio of investment projects evaluated by means of urban sustainability criteria [41], again multi-site land-use allocation problems solved also by resorting to GIS instrumentation [1]. The linear programming models, both continuous and discrete, can be implemented through specific mathematical programming computer tools, such as, for example, MatLab, A Mathematical Programming Language (AMPL, Excel, Lingo, Lindo. The selection of the software to be used is a function of the parameters number the number of winning conditions characterizing the evaluation problem to be solved. Specifically, the AMPL software relates to a

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mathematic language used to describe and solve optimization problems [47], particularly those of scheduling. This language is well suited to modeling decision cases of urban redevelopment projects according to an eco-systemic logic [3].

4 Evaluation Framework Proposal Although the usefulness of these tools and methods is clearly evident, in general there is a lack of use operational models, such as the NCPT, to support spatial planning and design in ecosystem perspective. This is due not only to the lack of knowledge and complexity found in the measurement of beneficial effects resulting from natural elements in urban contexts, but also to the interest of public operators to consider in the planning phase especially the financial effects of interventions in view of their available budget to be optimally allocated between investment projects for land development [24]. Haase et al. [24] note that: i) the information and survey system on the types of ecosystem services in urban areas is lacking, at most produced mainly to solve scientific and disciplinary issues and not to support interventions for the integrated development of the city; ii) there is no attitude for partnership practices between public and private subjects in establishing which strategy to adopt for the growth of the territory, respecting the existing natural component and reducing land consumption. In the light of this evidence, therefore, it seems appropriate to be able to use mixed evaluation methodologies with which to: i) address, manage and translate multiple design-assessment aspects taking into account their logical-functional relationships; ii) create a multiscalar information system that gives evidence of socio-economic and environmental characteristics, as well as ecosystem effects due to the existing urban ecosystem and changes in the overall ecosystem value due to the effect of the project on the territory. Therefore, it is intended to propose the description of an integrative assessment frame-work [24] to support assessment and design in urban settings based on an integrated ecosystem approach. The proposed assessment protocol allows for multidimensional assessments of initiatives for integrated sustainable urban development based on a «spatially explicit» multi-scalar information framework and economic accounting of ecosystem services [24]. In the following, the phases of the proposed framework are described.

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Fig. 1 Proposed evaluation framework of integrating ecosystem services assessment

4.1 Framework Steps The proposed integrative ecosystem assessment framework consists of the four steps as in Fig. 1. To each one a relative description is done at follow. Step 1. Evaluation problem definition with relative performance indicators. It consists in the collection, cataloging and selection of performance indicators to be used for quantitatively and/or qualitatively measuring the effects expressed in terms of services generated and goods produced by both the existing natural compartment (ex-ante intervention) and the intervention to be implemented (ex-post intervention). Depending on whether evaluations are aimed at defining ecosystem performance levels before and/or after the transformation process, in consideration of the evaluation aims to achive, as well as the stakeholders involved in the initiative to be implemented, it is possible to establish quantities and types of indicators to be taken into account in the evaluation phase. Step 2. Ecosystem services assessment. The current step is based on the estimation of urban ecosystem services expressed with the indicators via Step 1. The measurement of each indicator is carried out by means of the night-time lights as possible proxy variable of environmental, social and economic parameters of a territory, as well as the ecosystem services values. The satellite maps of night-time lights can be used for the construction of thematic maps representing, where possible, the selected ecosystem services and their corresponding distribution on territorial/urban plot of analysis.

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Step 3. Economic method for evaluating integrated ecosystem initiatives. To address the logical-practical gap between the estimation of ecosystem services and the corresponding economic evaluation, an evaluation approach to support the assessment of an integrated ecosystem design must be individualized. The selection of the proper assessment method, of economic type, is function of stakeholder’s interests involved in the assessment process, project type with its economic, social and environmental features, and of evaluation goals. Each one effect the finding of the economic method by that evaluate the project feasibility considering the ecosystem services values. Telega [54] leads the evaluation problem at the basis of integrated ecosystem initiatives to the maximization of the Overall Ecosystem Value (OEV) concernig the area under change, i.e. to the maximization of economic, social and environmental benefits that the project including an appropriate amount of natural surface is able to produce in the urban context where the plot is located. The measurement of OEV is via an economic algorithm based on the economic and financial project features that can be expressed through linear relationships of mathematical type [54]. The computation of OEV index can be integrated with the use of proxy variable, i.e. the night light data, as driver for the economic assessment of urban ecosystem services. By means of this information we can put in economic evaluation practices most commonly used in the literature also the economic value of ecosystem services. Step 4. Construction of the logic-operational model for the specific evaluation case. The system of relationships that can characterize the theoretical frame of the economc algorithm represent basic elements for the construction of multicriteria evaluation models capable of solving multiple problems of planning/design in eco-systemic key. These are mathematical models/systems that streamline algebraic expressions into parametric relationships with which to take into account aspects of an environmental, social and cultural nature either separately or jointly with those of a financial nature. Parametric relationships differ according to the evaluation question to solve. The methodology to translate operationally what can characterize the economic algorithm is based on the stylistic features of linear programming of the Operational Research through which we can express the existing relationships between the elements of the basic model with linear parametric expressions.

5 Conclusions The multi-scalar nature of the information frame on which to set up the integrated planning-evaluation of the city can vary according to the type of evaluation problem to be solved; the analysis to be carried out on the territory (aggregate and/or explicit); and, last but not least, the category and number of stakeholders (public and/or private) involved in the project initiative. The combination of these factors (type of evaluation

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problem, territorial analysis and stakeholders involved) defines the degree of detail and accuracy of the evaluation, as well as the level of articulation of the information system supporting the resolution of the evaluation and project case of interest in ecosystemic perspective, also in response to sudden breakdown events [52, 53]. The structure of the assessment framework proposed has as new elements the writing of an assessment model with the alpha-numeric language of Operations Research to support the resolution of evaluative systems concerning the design of interventions in a multidimensional way; the potential use of night lights data to support the geo-referenced estimation phase of ecosystem services, as well as the socio-economic and environmental characteristics that portray the intervention area under analysis. Future perspective will regard to test the framework at basis of the current work with concern case-study of design solutions in different urban contexts. Namely, the proposed framework will be tested on renewal cases of brownfields at neighborhood scale of investigation. Significant attention will be on the deeping of economic evaluation alternative methods to estimate the economic value of ecosystem services. This last one in relation to the possible links between their supply with territorial features and development perspectives.

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Towards a SDGs Based Neighborhood Sustainability Evaluation Framework: A Tool for Assessing Sustainability at the Urban Micro-Scale Valeria Saiu, Ivan Bleci ˇ c, ´ Italo Meloni, Francesco Piras, and Beatrice Scappini Abstract In light of the rapid growth of the built environment and its attendant climate, ecological, social and economic impacts, neighborhood is recognized as an effective level to address many sustainability objectives, according to the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda. However, there is no simple way to define an index for neighborhood sustainability assessment that can be used as a suitable tool for evaluating and monitoring interventions at this scale. The paper introduces a neighborhood sustainability evaluation framework based on SDGs that allows to analyze and measure the performance on different goals and map the results via a Geographic Information System. This architecture is useful to merge data from a variety of open sources and to obtain a significant spatial representation of potentials and problems on different thematic issues of a specific neighborhood or urban area. Due to its sensitivity—both in relation to the spatial and environmental structure and the socio-functional organization of the neighborhood micro-scale that are analyzed—the proposed evaluation framework can serve as an important planning and design tool to guide and inform strategies, policies and urban transformation interventions aimed at improving urban sustainability. Keywords 2030 agenda · SDGs localization · Urban sustainability · Neighborhood level · Evaluation models · Sustainability index V. Saiu (B) · I. Bleˇci´c · I. Meloni · F. Piras · B. Scappini Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy e-mail: [email protected] I. Bleˇci´c e-mail: [email protected] I. Meloni e-mail: [email protected] F. Piras e-mail: [email protected] B. Scappini e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_12

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1 Introduction Today 55% of the world’s population live in urban areas, so that «Cities are increasingly the home of humanity. They are central to climate action, global prosperity, peace and human rights. (…) To transform our world, we must transform its cities» (UN Secretary-General, Secretary-General’s message on World Cities Day, 2016). Cities can play the role of “massive agents of positive change” [34] only if these will be well equipped to address many sustainability challenges, according to the integrated approach adopted by the UN 2030 Agenda, one of the most important global action plans for sustainable development which calls for evidence-based and measurable goals for all policies and actions [33]. Through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework, in fact, the 2030 Agenda clearly defines some development targets for 2030 which cities must reach through their “Voluntary Local Review” (VLR) provided by article 47 [15, 19, 23]. This implies the collection of urban data to understand the status of each city in terms of SDGs performance and identify, evaluate and prioritize actions and investments needed to improve their performance. Indeed, this knowledge allows to plan and design interventions that have a significant impact, certifying its contribution in achieving SDGs. Furthermore, SDGs define a common language and agenda among different urban realities useful to share knowledge and better practices. In this context, the development of sustainable neighborhoods is one of the major issues of urban sustainability and a key action for the SDGs localization process because, as highlighted by Choguill «no single city can contribute to overall sustainability if its own component parts are found not to be sustainable» [11]. At this level, according to the SDG 11, the main goal is to create inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable neighborhoods in which people can live healthy and happy lives without affecting the climate and the environment. This is very relevant due to the fact that a large number of measures necessary to reach the SDG 11 have an impact on all the other SDGs or, in other words, almost all SDGs are relevant to building and urban planning [31]. For this reason, decision-makers, local public administrations and stakeholders involved in neighborhood development should start considering and incorporating the evaluation of SDGs in the early stages of the planning process, so they can work together to share knowledge, design strategies and measures, and establish good practices.

1.1 Urban and Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment and SDGs The importance of urban sustainability at a local level had been growing since the last decade of the twentieth century as a result of the launch of Local Agenda 21, “the action plan for sustainable development” for local authorities adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 [27].

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Thus far, several tools have been developed for evaluating the effectiveness of new development or regeneration projects at the neighborhood scale and their sustainability performance such as rating tools, certification systems, indicator frameworks and assessment tools [21, 26, 28]. Among these the American LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) for Neighborhood Development; the Japanese CASBEE (Comprehensive Assessment System for Built Environment Efficiency) for Urban Development; the French HQE2R (Haute Qualité Environnementale et Economique Réhabilitation); the English BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method) for Communities; the German DGNB (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Nachhaltiges Bauen: the German Sustainable Building Council) for Urban District, and the Italian ITACA (Italian Institute for Innovation and Transparency in Procurement and Environmental Compatibility) for Urban areas. In last years, some of these tools (i.e., NSA tools) have been starting to encourage the achievement of SDGs through their certification systems, like the “City prosperity Index” and the “SDG Cities Certification” developed by the United Nations and, at the neighborhood scale, BREEAM Communities and DGNB System for districts. The City Prosperity Index (CPI) was created by UN-Habitat in 2012 as a tool to measure sustainability at the urban level, after a survey conducted in 54 cities from the developing world to conceptualize prosperity and identify its most critical components. After numerous requests from local authorities and central governments asking for the estimation of their respective prosperity indexes, in 2013 UN-Habitat transformed the City Prosperity Index into a global initiative known as the City Prosperity Initiative [32]. Today more than 400 cities across the world use the CPI as a monitoring framework. The CPI has been recently proposed to serve as a global architecture platform for monitoring and comparing the progress towards SDG 11 and a selected number of other SDG indicators that have an urban component. The 2020 UN-Habitat Report highlighted that 23% of all SDGs targets measurable at the local level are covered by the CPI [29]. SDG Cities Certification was developed by the United Nations within the flagship programme “SDG Cities”, the global initiative that aims to realize the potential of cities as drivers for the achievement of the SDGs during the Decade of Action (2020– 30) and recognize their efforts through a prestigious certification [31]. UN-Habitat, UN and other partners involved in the programme support the building of city capacities in key areas of policy, planning, governance and local financing, whereby each city is encouraged to create an urban lab to develop SDGs oriented projects. This would allow the production of reliable and comparable evidence for the identification of strategic actions aimed at accelerating SDGs achievement. One of the main objectives is the monitoring and certification of projects, processes and initiatives of excellence and the alignment of funding to sustainable urban transformative actions [30]. BREEAM Communities is one of seven schemes developed by BRE Group (Building Research Establishment). In 2018 BREEAM schemes were reviewed to verify their applicability to the SDGs at an indicator level [9, 10]. The deep analysis conducted by BRE shows the correlations between SDG targets and key performance

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indicator, both directly and indirectly. By mapping each of the schemes to the SDG, BRE demonstrates that a large part of their schemes is already aligned with the SDGs. DGNB System for sustainable districts is a globally recognized planning and optimization tool developed by the German Sustainable Building Council (DGNB) in 2012 and updated in 2020. In this latest version of the DGNB district certification, all criteria are analyzed in relation to their contribution to the achievement of the SDGs. This like-for-like comparison between all system criteria and the SDG targets has consequently made them certifiable and, therefore, each DGNB certified project receives a statement on how much it has contributed to achieving the SDGs [14]. Furthermore, the system provides an additional incentive—the “Agenda 2030 bonuses”—awarded in selected criteria for projects that make a particular contribution to climate action and the implementation of the other UN sustainability goals (DGNB). The limitations of these two neighborhood assessment tools are related to their private nature that limits their applicability to selected projects and urban areas, besides the high economic cost of the certification [6]. For example, to date only 13 urban districts have been certified through the DGNB system [13]. Additionally, these tools are not based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) which support multicriteria analysis by allowing data collection and analysis, and the automatization of the calculation of related indices and measurements. At the same time many studies employed GIS methodology to evaluate sustainability and SDGs but these previous works focused only on the SDG 11 targets or on a small subset of SDGs [1, 16–18]. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to propose a SDGs based Neighborhood Sustainability Evaluation Framework, designed to overcome the limitations mentioned above. The paper is organized as follows: after this introduction where the current problems in the analysis of sustainability at the urban micro-level were presented and an overview of the existing literature was provided; in Sect. 2 the study methodology and data collection processes are exposed; Sect. 3 highlights the main characteristics of the proposed framework through its application to a case study of a neighborhood in the city of Cagliari (Italy). Finally, in Sect. 4 we illustrate the implications of our approach and discuss the main limitations and future research areas.

2 N.SDGs Framework: Analysis and Evaluation of Sustainability at the Urban Micro-Level 2.1 N.SDGs Methodology We propose a multicriteria evaluation framework that merges several dimensions of urban sustainability into a composite framework—the Neighborhood SDGs-based Assessment Framework (i.e. the N.SDGs Framework)—which allows to evaluate sustainability at both global and thematic level, by relating each criterion with

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specific SDGs. The process of definition and design of the N.SDGs Framework was subdivided into three phases: 1. Structure of the Framework: We analyzed a selection of relevant neighborhood sustainability assessment tools currently in use with the aim of identifying evaluation topics relevant to urban design interventions, the key performance areas and the associated sub-areas of analysis [25]. 2. Sustainability Indicators based on SDGs: This phase consisted of two interwoven sub-phases. First, we have selected a set of indicators that provide information on specific sustainability sub-areas. More specifically, the indicators we have chosen allow us to assess the current situation and identify which areas need most interventions. In the second phase, we associated these indicators with the SDGs “urban targets and indicators”, namely the targets and indicators of the SDGs framework that are potentially relevant to the project at the neighborhood scale [22, 24]. Note that we attempted to achieve all SDGs, except the SDG 17 as explained in the next text below. 3. Validation. The framework was tested and validated by applying it to a case study in the city of Cagliari. This experiment has allowed us to verify whether the data used for the evaluation of each indicator are easily available and analyzable; the final selection of indicators, as well as their hierarchy and prioritization, was carried out taking these results into consideration. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform that allows the analysis and visualization of spatial data, and the efficient management and monitoring of individual indicators, thematic indices and synthetic index of sustainability.

2.2 N.SDGs Structure and Indicators As highlighted in the previous Section, we used a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based platform to collect, manage, analyze and geographically display the data used for the evaluation of the N.SDGs Framework indicators within the four key performance areas which are: (1) Mobility and Accessibility, (2) Vitality and Attractiveness, (3) Equity and Social Inclusion, and (4) Environment and Well-being (see Table 1 and Fig. 1). From an operational point of view, the proposed index supports the development of: • slow-modes-oriented neighborhoods linked to the quality of public transport, active mobility and multimodal transport options that improve equal access to essential services, activities, and jobs for all citizens; • high-quality neighborhoods with a high degree of land-use mix, rich in open public spaces such as community gardens, parks, outdoor sports areas and play areas, where different people want to spend time and can build friendships and share time together;

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Table 1 N.SDGs framework structure. Source [24] Performance areas

Sub-areas

SDGs targets related

I1. Mobility and accessibility

I. Public transport

3.4. Promote mental health and well-being 3.6 Reduce road traffic accidents 7.2. Increase substantially the share of renewable energy 7.3. Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency 8.4. Reduce the built environment’s footprint and decouple economic growth from environmental degradation 9.1. Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructures 11.2. Provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems

II. Walkability III. Ciclability IV. Intermodality

I2. Equity and social inclusion

I. Urban equity II. Social support III. Participation IV. Awarness

1.4. Provide equal access to basic services 3.4. Promote mental health and well-being 4.7. Promote education for sustainable development and lifestyles 5.5. Ensure full participation in leadership and decision-making 6.b. Improve participation 10.2. Empower and promote the social inclusion 10.3. Ensure equal opportunities 11.1. Ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services 11.3. Enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning and management 12.8. Improve information and awareness for sustainable development and lifestyles 13.3. Improve awareness-raising and planning capacity on climate change mitigation and adaptation 16.7. Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels (continued)

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Table 1 (continued) Performance areas

Sub-areas

SDGs targets related

I3. Vitality and attractiveness

I. Functional diversity

2.3 Double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers 4.4. Increase technical and vocational skills, for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship 8.9. Promote sustainable tourism that creates jobs and promotes local culture and products 11.7. Provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces 12.b. Develop/implement tools to monitor sustainable tourism

II. Economic vitality III. Touristic attractiveness

I4. Environment and well-being

I. Urban naturalness II. CO2 reduction capacity III. Environmental well-being IV. Environmental safety

1.5. Improve the resilience to natural disaster and extreme weather of the vulnerable people 3.4. Promote mental health and well-being 3.9. Reduce air, water and soil pollution and contamination 3.d. Strengthen the capacity for early warning, risk reduction and management of health risks 11.4. Protect and safeguard the world’s cultural and natural heritage 11.5. Reduce the deaths and the people affected by disasters 11.6. Reduce the adverse environmental impact of cities 11.7. Provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces 13.1. Improve resilience to natural disasters and extreme weather 13.2. Integrate climate change measures into planning 14.1. Prevent/reduce marine pollution from land-based activities 15.3. Combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil 15.9. Integrate ecosystem and biodiversity values into planning

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Fig. 1 N.SDGs framework: the four key performance areas cover an wide spectrum of SDGs

• inclusive neighborhoods that support life opportunities for all and enable people to access the services they need, especially those with disabilities and vulnerable individuals such as children, the elderly and lower socioeconomic groups; • low-carbon and climate-resilient neighborhoods that promote biodiversity and soil quality, reduce the extent of urban warming and minimize emissions and risks through the design of quality public spaces and street networks, not just for the ecological restoration and protection but also to promote human health and well-being. All these objectives and related neighborhood project actions have an impact on the indicators and targets outlined in the 2030 Agenda, making the proposed evaluation framework very effective in achieving all SDGs. We have analyzed this potential correlation in previous studies and reported these results in Table 1 and Fig. 1 which graphically synthetizes the correlations between neighborhood-scale project interventions and SDGs Targets reported in Table 1 (for a detailed analysis, see: [24]. In order of impact, the performance area “Equity and Social Inclusion” have potential correlations with ten SDGs (1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16), “Mobility and Accessibility” with seven SDGs (3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12), “Environment and Wellbeing”

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with seven SDGs (1, 2, 3, 11, 13, 14, 16), “Vitality and Attractiveness” with five SDGs (2, 4, 8, 11, 12). All Goals are included in our evaluation framework, except for the SDG 17 “Partnership for the Goals” that does not address specific policy tasks but has cross-cutting and cross-sectoral links and effects that make them crucial for the achievement of the other SDGs.

2.3 Mobility and Accessibility Sub-Index Given the limited space available in this paper, the following description is focused on the “Mobility and Accessibility” key performance area which exemplifies the approach and the methodology conducted for the other three key areas. Table 2 shows the structure of this area, highlighting the sub-areas and the evaluation elements. Indicators and modelling. The N.SDGs Framework brings together quantitative and qualitative indicators. The former is related to traditional evaluation methods based on per capita data or on the percentage of land area with a specific destination/use. Among these, the percentage of public space or green area within each neighborhood is one of most used indicators in all NSA tools and urban sustainability certification systems. The latter, on the other hand, propose a high fidelity evaluation approach in order to consider the differences in the intrinsic quality of a specific service or activity and their real accessibility by the inhabitants or users of the neighborhood [7]. This second type of indicators evaluates the distance of certain destinations for different neighborhood inhabitants by assuming that each building constitutes a Table 2 The N.SDGs framework: the structure of “mobility and accessibility” key area Key area

Sub-areas

Evaluation elements

Mobility and accessibility I. Vehicular mobility Street network, street junctions, street areas, vehicular areas, area 30 II. Parking

Roadside parking, parking areas (formal and informal)

III. Public transport

PT network, bus stops

IV. Walkability

Pedestrian network, sidewalks, crosswalks, pedestrian areas

V. Ciclability

Cycle network, cycle lane, cycle crossing, bike parking, bike sharing

VI. Intermodality

Meeting points between bicycle or car sharing points, bus and train stops, parking stations

VII. Destinations

Buildings (origin of the movement); Land use, public open spaces, activities, services, public green spaces

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possible starting point. This method, which we described in our previous research [4, 8], produces highly detailed and spatially granular evaluations. Dataset implementation. The proposed framework considers: (1) the physical characteristics of mobility infrastructures and services relating to motorized mobility, walkability, bikeability and public transport; (2) the potential destinations to which the inhabitants or users of the neighborhood can reach; and (3) the different categories of users/inhabitants that can be associated whit different needs. Therefore, we use different data sources collected and made available by the Italian National Institute for Statistic (ISTAT), Sardinia local and regional planning authorities—such as the Autonomous Region of Sardinia (RAS) Database, the Municipality of Cagliari Geo-Portal (CGP)—and those offered by free and open web platforms such as Open Street Map (OSM) and Google Maps (GM) and Sardinia Open data (SOD). Other data not available in these databases are manually digitalized (MD). In Table 3 we report a sample of 17 datasets that we have identified and collected, and Fig. 2 shows the high level of detail of our analysis. The “street areas” shapefile contained in the RAS database served as a basis for analyzing the public road space between different modes of mobility. After having manually mapped the road areas dedicated to cycle paths and lanes reserved for public transport and collected the inventory of the sidewalks, by over-lapping these three layers was possible to obtain, by subtraction, the vehicular areas dedicated to both transit and parking areas. The inventory of the distribution of public parking lots along the street is a crucial information that allow us to understand the amount of public space left to private cars, mostly free of charge. This data also requires manual digitization, which makes it possible to detect the number of parking spaces available and the areas where the cars are parked even though there are no official parking spaces. While a street network shapefile is available, the pedestrian network was traced manually through GIS software starting from the sidewalks and pedestrian areas layers contained in the RAS database and the crosswalk layer manually digitalized through site inspection and consultation of Google Maps. The tracing of a pedestrian network is a time-consuming phase because government administrations often do not hold such data in their databases and at most only provide technicians with a shapefile of the road network. In the GIS database, through OSM open-source data and Google Maps consultation several attributes were manually associated with each layer. For example, nonpermanent or permanent obstacles were detected for the pavement segments, such as parked cars, light poles, large trees and kiosks which reduce space for pedestrians and in some cases represent a real impediment. Also, the presence of lighting and facilities for people with disabilities such as ramps was considered, as the absence of these elements makes the sidewalks unsafe, less attractive and, in some cases, inaccessible to certain categories of pedestrians. For those attributes that indicate the presence or absence of a specific element, values within the range of [0–1] have been assigned. For example, in the case of public transport stops, if a bus shelter is

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Table 3 The dataset used for the “mobility and accessibility” key performance area Dataset

Source

Year

Feature

Description

Open data

Street network

RAS

2020

Line

ID, name, width, length, ranking, pavement, direction, speed limit, restrictions, sidewalk, PT dedicated lane

Yes

Street junctions

RAS

2007

Point

ID, number of streets, number of crosswalks

Yes

Street areas

RAS

2007

Polygon

ID, area

Yes

Vehicular areas

RAS

2007

Polygon

ID, area, pavement, speed Yes limit

Roadside parking

MD

2021

Polygon

ID, area, width, type, No number of parking spaces, disabled parking, loading–unloading parking

Parking areas

MD

2021

Polygon

ID, area, type, pavement

No

Car sharing points

SOD

ND

Point

ID, number of cars

Yes

Pedestrian network

MD

2021

Line

ID, length, type

No

Sidewalks

RAS

2007

Polygon

ID, area, width, length, pavement, lighting, obstacles

Yes

Crosswalks

MD

2021

Polygon

ID, type, lighting, obstacles, signposting

No

Pedestrian areas

RAS

2007

Polygon

ID, area, pavement, opening time, lighting, furniture

Yes

Cycle network

CGP

ND

Line

ID, length, type, direction Yes

Cycle lane

MD

2021

Polygon

ID, area, width, type, pavement, direction

No

Cycle crossing

MD

2021

Polygon

ID, type, signposting

No

Area 30

MD

2021

Polygon

ID, area,

No

Bike parking

MD

2021

Point

ID, number of parking spaces

No

Bike sharing point

SOD

ND

Point

ID, number of bicycles

Yes

PT network

SOD

ND

Line

ID, length, line name, PT dedicated lane, destinations

Yes

Bus stops

SOD

ND

Point

ID, name, code, destinations, real time timetable, bus shelter, bench, lighting

Yes

Buildings

RAS

2007

Polygon

ID, type, category

Yes (continued)

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Table 3 (continued) Dataset

Source

Year

Feature

Description

Open data

Land use

RAS

2007

Polygon

ID, type, category

Yes

Public open spaces

RAS

2007

Polygon

ID, area, type, pavement, opening time, lighting, furniture

Yes

Activities—Services

GM, OSM

2021

Point

ID, type, category, opening time

Yes

Public green spaces

RAS

2007

Polygon

ID, area, type, pavement, opening time, lighting, furniture

Yes

Tree lined roads

MD

2021

Line

ID, length

No

Census parcels

ISTAT

2011

Polygon

ID, total population, women, 0–14 y/old, 15–34 y/old, > 65 y/old, foreigners

Yes

Fig. 2 The GIS platform: the high level of detail of the evaluation implemented in our study

available in close proximity of the stop, the “bus shelter” attribute takes on the value of 1, 0 vice versa. One of the problems encountered with regard to pedestrian paths was the identification of the real walkable portion of the sidewalk and of the buffer zone where trees and street furniture are located, since the latter considerably reduces the portion of the walkable area and, if not considered, involves an overestimation of the data. About the different neighborhood “destinations” we considered both the land use, that allows to measure the area occupied by each category of services and activities

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in square meters, and their punctual localization. The manual geolocation and classification of these destinations took place by consulting different databases (Google Maps, OSM, RAS database). The classification used was as follows: commercial, education, place of worship, recreation, public office, health, services, tourism. Finally, the socio-economic characteristics of the inhabitants of the district were analyzed through the data provided by ISTAT and referred to as the minimum territorial unit represented by the census parcel. Census data allow specific social groups (women, children, elderly people, ethnic minorities) to be taken into account in evaluating accessibility to urban spaces and services [5, 35]. Thanks to their periodic updating, census data can also provide a chronological evolution of the socioeconomic system. They are usually proxied by the centroid of each polygonal section which represents the entire population living there. Currently, these data are available as polygonal shape files referring to the year 2011, as the 2021 data have not yet been published. It should be pointed out that in order to obtain a more precise distribution of the population, it would be advisable to have additional ancillary data, such as land-use maps containing information about residential areas, which public administrations do not always possess or make available. Through these data, in fact, it would be possible to evaluate the number of people living inside each residential area as a percentage of the number of people living inside the entire census parcel [3].

3 An Exploratory Case Study To demonstrate the potential of the methodology and show how the wealth of information allows an in-depth assessment of sustainability at the neighborhood scale through the N.SDGs Framework, we present the preliminary results of a case study in Italy. In particular, we analyzed the “Quartiere del Sole—La Palma” neighborhoods, two adjacent residential areas located on the south-east side of the city of Cagliari which border on two sides by the Molentargius Park (one of the largest urban wetlands in Europe) and on the others by the Viale Poetto, a four-lane urban road that connects the study areas with the beach and the city center, and Via Tramontana, a two-lane road that connects them with the main urban centers of the Cagliari hinterland (Fig. 3). These predominantly residential neighborhoods are largely built in the 1960s under the INA-Casa and PEEP public housing plans, characterized by the presence of several green spaces and open public areas and services, with mid-level residential buildings and independent houses [20]. The socio-economic analysis conducted by the demographic data provided by ISTAT (the Central Italian Institute of Statistics) highlights the distribution of specific social groups to whom the evaluation of accessibility and quality of the public space can be expressly addressed (see Table 4). Within the city of Cagliari, the inhabitants of the neighborhood under analysis represent about 4% of the total population. The neighborhood has a population made up of more than 50% of women. An important share is represented by the elderly population, which corresponds to about 30%,

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Fig. 3 The “Quartiere del Sole—La Palma” neighborhoods

while children make up 11% of the total inhabitants. On the other hand, foreigners do not constitute a relevant segment of the population. Furthermore, a significant portion of the total population (46%) commute daily toward their workplace/study place. The latter data highlights how the issues of mobility and accessibility to the neighborhood affect a significant portion of the population. Then, we have analyzed the “Mobility and Accessibility” performance of the case study neighborhoods reporting two examples that show both the quantitative and the qualitative analysis. In the first, the different layers assigned to each means of transport (walking, cycling, private vehicle, and public transport) have been overlapped in order to isolate and evaluate both the pedestrian environment and the areas dedicated to vehicles transit and parking areas (Table 5). From the data analysis, it emerges Table 4 Socio-demographic characteristics of “Quartiere del Sole—La Palma” neighborhoods Demographic data

N

%

Source

Year

Total population

5.514

–

ISTAT

2011

Women

2.979

54

Children (65 years old)

1640

29,7

Foreigners

122

2%

Inhabitants commuting daily

2.560

46%

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Table 5 The transportation layout of the neighborhood Total Publica Area

SQM

%

200.497

100

1. Street areas

145.416

73

2. Public open spaces

55.081

27

Street Area

145.416

100

84.683

58

Authorized

7.588

5

Unauthorized

7.288

5

1. Vehicular areas 2. Roadside parking 3. Sidewalks

33.680

23

4. Cycle lanes

917

0,6

5. PT dedicated lanes

6.405

4,5

6. Accessory road elements

4.855

3

Public Open Spaces

55.081

100

1. Pavement public areas 12.312 (squares, widenings, small open spaces, pedestrian paths)

22

2. Urban green areas (parks, neighborhood gardens, small green areas)

39.984

73%

3. Public areas used for parking

2.785

5%

that the public space of the district is largely dedicated to vehicular traffic (73%), while 27% is reserved for green areas, squares, or other open areas. It is interesting to observe that parking spots along the road occupy more than 15% of the surface dedicated to vehicles, a portion of public land that the administration leaves to private occupation without monetizing this resource or regulating its use but also taking it away from all other categories of public space users. The results shown in Table 5 are plotted in Figs. 4 and 5. This cartographic representation makes it possible to instantly visualize those areas of the neighborhood in which vehicular mobility is privileged rather than active mobility, and constitutes a useful tool for planners and policymakers when deciding which infrastructural or legislative interventions aimed at discouraging the use of the private car need to be prioritized. Moreover, it allows to verify whether the layout of the streets that include services and activities serving the most vulnerable sections of the population (schools, health services) makes it possible to easily and safely access them. The second example concerns the evaluation of the different levels of walkability by identifying the paths available for walking in the pedestrian catchment areas at 200 m–300 m–400 m for each building in the neighborhood [2]. We searched for all the activities and services (destinations) falling within these three catchment areas and then we computed the number of buildings (origins) that can access the different typologies of destinations (education, health, commercial, services). Figure 5 reports an example of the maps that can be obtained by the computation of the service areas:

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Fig. 4 Share of street areas dedicated to sidewalks and to private vehicles

Fig. 5 Number of destinations that each residential origin can access by walking 300 m

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in this specific case we reported the number of destinations that each residential building can access by walking 300 m. In Table 6 we provided the share of residential origins in the neighborhood that can reach a certain destination for different walking distances, while in Table 7 we reported the average number of destinations accessible from each residential origin. In each table, we compare the results obtained using as a basis the pedestrian network we manually digitalized and the street network provided by the RAS. The main difference between the two networks is that the latter one does not consider paths along with parks and green areas and each road is considered as a single link of the network. Instead, in the pedestrian network crossing the road is possible only where a signalized pedestrian crossing exists. In general, it is apparent that the majority of origins can reach a commercial activity or a public or private service by walking at most 200 m. Around 30% of the origins have access to a school within 200 m. Only the 10% of the 200 m of services area include a recreational activity. These shares increase as the distances employed to compute the service areas increase as well. We can also observe that using the Table 6 Share of residential buildings that can reach a certain destination for different distances Network used to compute the service area

Distance (m)

Commercial Schools activities (%) (%)

Recreational Health activities (%) services (%)

Public/private services (%)

Pedestrian network

400

100.0

82.9

38.6

99.5

94.3

300

96.2

59.0

23.3

97.1

80.5

200

85.2

29.5

12.9

86.2

58.6

400

100.0

85.2

38.1

100.0

94.8

300

97.1

59.0

25.7

97.6

83.3

200

84.8

31.9

9.5

87.1

67.6

Street network

Table 7 Average number of destinations accessible from each residential building for different distances Network used to compute the service area

Distance (m)

Commercial activities

Schools

Recreational activities

Health services

Public/private services

Pedestrian network

400

16.96

1.71

0.51

9.77

3.65

300

10.77

0.96

0.31

5.83

2.36

200

5.69

0.38

0.17

2.90

1.20

400

17.11

1.81

0.57

9.92

3.99

300

11.00

1.02

0.36

6.03

2.62

200

6.17

0.43

0.12

3.14

1.47

Street network

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street network, on average, a higher number of destinations can be reached from the residential buildings of the neighborhood, though this difference is relevant only for the service areas within 200 m.

4 Discussion The results of the case study application highlight the potential usefulness of the proposed evaluation method for urban planning and design at the neighborhood scale, and its contribution to the achievement of SDGs. Regarding to the first outputs obtained from the N.SDGs Framework, the analysis of the neighborhood’s walking accessibility allows to identify those areas with low levels of pedestrian accessibility for different categories of services and activity analyzed, highlighting not only a lack in their provision but also an inadequate pedestrian accessibility to reach them. The fine-grain analysis provided by the proposed methodology, in fact, allows to identify the presence of pedestrian barriers or poor sidewalks, that require infrastructural interventions to improve the neighborhood walkability. Indeed, the proximity and variety of different services and activities in a neighborhood is only one aspect of the accessibility problem: if individuals, despite having a large number of opportunities available in close proximity of their homes, encounter difficulties in obtaining them due to the poor quality of the built environment, we cannot guarantee that they will use active mobility rather than private car for their trips, both discretionary and for leisure. This highlights the need for integrated actions on both the functional and physical subsystems to improve and increase the neighborhood’s accessibility. The thematic maps developed by applying geospatial tools immediately show critical situations and allow to foresee how the value of different indicators change with different interventions and also to update the database each time an intervention is carried out. In the same time, these maps can show the impacts of a project in achieving of SDGs according to the correlations highlighted in Table 1 and Fig. 1. It should be noted that within the study area some information, such as pedestrian networks or parking areas, is currently not available in open data format and requires manual mapping work to acquire the data. While nowadays there are various opensource street datasets at different scales and resolutions, such information is not always available and can be expensive to build for the purpose. This suggests that the data collection and index calculation can be conducted both by public administrations during the planning phase or by private actors during the design and development stage of a neighborhood regeneration project.

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5 Conclusions The present study introduces a sustainability evaluation framework that allows to obtain a significant spatial representation of potentials and problems on different thematic issues of a specific neighborhood or urban area also in order to analyze and measure the performance on the achievement of SDGs. The high level of detail of the analysis of the N.SDGs Framework allowed us to verify the impact of the interventions at the micro-urban scale, through strategic maps developed with the help of GIS software packages. In turn, these maps allowed the computation and spatialization of different sustainability indicators, providing useful information to policy makers, specifically for the planning of actions involving the improvement of the four key performance areas of analysis. Indeed, the most important capability of GIS in urban perspectives is model simulation, which can support planning and decision making. Furthermore, integrating GIS with other technologies and methodologies can provide a powerful tool for quantitatively measuring urban patterns on a spatial scale. The methodology was implemented using open-source data so that our model is freely and easily usable: • by public administrations to evaluate the level of sustainability of specific urban areas and decide which urban regeneration interventions should be prioritized; • by planners to evaluate the contribution of urban regeneration projects in the transition process towards the sustainability of a city; • by citizens to understand the potential and the problems of the neighborhood they live in and actively participate in the decision-making process for interventions, on which your quality of life depends. Although findings of our case study confirm the applicability of the framework, at the same time it is important to highlight that we found some difficulties in data collection and representation at the neighborhood scale. These limitations must be recognized and overcome through the consistent involvement and engagement of different urban actors to optimize the efficiency of data collection and analysis process. Future research should focus on improving the attribution of the individual factors that determine the overall quality of each key performance area at the neighborhood level. Interviews should also be carried out with a sample of citizens to improve the reliability of the method and better understand how each factor affects mobility and accessibility at the neighborhood scale.

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A Case of Local Community Engagement for Urban Regeneration: The South Boston Area Rubina Canesi, Chiara D’Alpaos, and Giuliano Marella

Abstract In contrast with the “top-down” methodology, usually implemented for urban planning processes, this study presents the application of a “bottom-up” approach, where the local community has been involved in the urban design process. The participation process was tested as a sustainable tool for local urban regeneration. In this sense, the local community has been involved since the beginning of the decision process and high standards of public benefits have been achieved applying this approach. The bottom-up approach implemented in the Plan for South Boston—Dorchester Ave in Boston (MA, USA) was investigated. This area is a lowdensity mixed-use area, which currently is suffering from a depopulation process and is undergoing the expansionary pressure of the city. The case study confirmed the efficiency of a bottom-up process with public engagement in restricted geographical areas where local communities share common interests and ideas. By obtaining higher levels of public benefits, the participatory process has succeeded in achieving sustainable development goals in line with public needs. The study aims to provide descriptive policy recommendations to promote sustainable redevelopment in local districts. Keywords Urban regeneration · Community engagement · Bottom-up approach · Public benefit

R. Canesi (B) · C. D’Alpaos · G. Marella Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (DICEA), University of Padova (UNIPD), Padova, Italy e-mail: [email protected] C. D’Alpaos e-mail: [email protected] G. Marella e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_13

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1 Introduction The role played by cooperation between the private and public sectors is crucial in the process of urban regeneration. The private sector is often the engine in stimulating property development and investment [1]. Private, financial, and managerial resources have become essential for building and managing public service and amenities [2, 3]. These public benefits are defined as land value capture, which public authorities can obtain through negotiation processes [4]. In this dualistic process, the advantage ability between public and private becomes crucial and social acceptance is a cornerstone in the successful implementation of any public policy or plan and, specifically, when urban regeneration is concerned. Social acceptance is per se a multidimensional concept, which in turn consists of socio-political acceptance, community acceptance, and market acceptance [5, 6] and usually, the strength of people’s support to a policy or a plan depends on its perceived fairness and effectiveness [7]. Furthermore, the need for sustainable developments reflects the critical economic role played by public authorities to promote urban regeneration processes, which are multifaceted and involve a comprehensive perspective, which needs to account for citizenship’s improvement in economic, social, and environmental conditions when proposing solutions to urban planning issues. Over the last decade, urban resilience strategies become a multidimensional mandatory approach for local communities to design and manage sustainable cities able to respond and adapt to evolving circumstances [8–13]. To respond to the needs of these new communities, urban planning processes had to adapt and evolve using new forms and tools. To capture and maximize public benefits, local community engagement and involvement are increasingly becoming mandatory for a sustainable, resilient, and inclusive development process, supporting the policy maker [14]. Indeed, a socially inclusive technique in the urban regeneration process can be used by authorities and communities as a basis for masterplans [15, 16]. Bottom-up participation processes have been previously applied to policy activities, e.g., energy policy, climate change, watershed management, mobility, agriculture, environment. However, this participatory process is less frequently applied to urban planning and design [17, 18], due to inefficiencies related to long-term planning times and community conflicts [19]. However, the involvement of different and diverse stakeholders in developing ideas and comments can contribute to empowering the role of citizens and the quality of planning [20, 21]. Additionally, public participation stimulates the evolution of concepts and ideas that are based on the knowledge of the local community, attitudes, and habits, providing greater awareness [22]. The aim of this paper is to propose and illustrate a bottom-up approach to urban regeneration, which accounts for both the possible conflicts and inefficiencies and the positive outputs that can be generated by applying participatory processes. In detail, we present and discuss a real-world case study, namely the participatory process, implemented to the definition and execution of the urban regeneration plan for the South Boston Area, (Boston, MA, USA). The remainder of the paper is organized

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as follows. In Sect. 2 the case study is presented; in Sect. 3 the goals of the urban regeneration plan are discussed, whereas in Sect. 4 the bottom-up approach here implemented is introduced. Finally, Sect. 5 concludes.

2 Materials: The Case Study According to the most recent data from the United States Census Bureau and the American Community survey, Boston has a population of 617,594, as censed in 2010, with a density of 12,792.7 people per square mile of land (or 48.28/mi2 ), and a current estimated density of 13,841 people per square mile of land (or 5344/km2 ). The Greater Boston Area is the fourth most densely populated metropolitan area in the U.S., behind the New York Metro Area, Greater Los Angeles Area, and the South Florida Metropolitan Area. Over the past decade, Boston has experienced a vast and increasing growth, with an average 2-yr growth of 1.35%, just below the national rate of 1.7%, transforming the City’s requirements. Urban density, which is a characteristic of global urbanization, creates a challenge for sustainable urban development [23]. To compete with this large growth, the City is attempting to responds to the needs of the population, planning the growth of semiperipheral areas with new redevelopment plans. The Boston Planning and Development Agency (BPDA), formerly known as the Boston Redevelopment Authority (BRA), and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts were the two major public authorities involved in the Boston Urban Regeneration through the past years. In 2016, The BPDA, which is indeed a public development agency that serves as the municipal planning and development agency for Boston, released a regeneration Plan for South Boston—Dorchester Ave Planning Initiative (hereinafter referred to as “Plan”), located along the Dorchester Avenue Corridor (Fig. 1). The area is a low-density 144 acres industrial and commercial area, where a development process began in the mid-nineteenth century, currently suffering from a depopulation process. In the 17th Century, the Dorchester area was used primarily for grazing cattle and as a connector with the City Center to the South Boston Area. It was only connected by a bridge to the main City in the 19th Century to satisfy the increasing request of the growing population to expand manufacturing developments. The Dorchester Turnpike was built in 1805 as the primary tool road connection with Downtown. In ten years, after the implementation of the subway system (MBTA—Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority) along the existing Ave, it has become a highly trafficked commercial artery, which served the existing iron foundries, glassworks, machinery manufacturers, and other industries. However, public authorities sensed the need to secure valuable public benefits from private developers through negotiation approaches already in these early stages [24]. In this sense, in the early 1800s public amenities, such as sidewalks and tree plantings were funded for the development of Dorchester Avenue by a prominent Bostonian iron manufacturer, active in the local area. Since then, this industrial area has grown and developed in conjunction with the Seaport Area as an annex to the waterfront, without a peculiar Urban and

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Fig. 1 South Boston—Dorchester Ave planning location. Source Boston planning and development agency (BPDA)

Architectural independence. As mentioned, the area involved in the Plan is a young low-density area with 2207 inhabitants, of which 55% are under 35 years old. Due to the expansion of the City, this neighborhood is experiencing market pressure to accommodate the growing residential and employment-population of Boston (The Plan 2016). To keep up with this large urban growth, and to responds to the requirements of the population, the local authorities decided to approach the redevelopment process an innovative way, by directly involving local communities in the decision-making process. Generally, local communities can be defined as a group

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of people living in a definite geographic area, who share common ideas, social and linguistic interests, and habits [25]. Representing the local ideas of developing and planning by the participation of the community, local authorities started this longterm development process in 2015, which culminated in 2016 with the Plan approval [26]. This was undoubtedly an innovation in terms of Process and Public engagement for urban regeneration.

2.1 The Plan Goals The main goal of the Plan was to reintegrate neighbor fabric with the growing Seaport waterfront and with South Station, maximizing public benefit and creating local synergies in an urban, mixed-use sustainable district in Boston (Table 1). Specifically, in the “Vision workshops”, the community listed, responding to the vision for the future of the area, the public benefits to be achieved through private exchange advantage. The identified public priorities focused on increasing the percentage of affordable housing units for low-income population, open space, affordable retail, public parking, walkable sidewalks and bikeable paths, social cohesion and family spaces, and the implementation of the public transportation system. Table 1 Goals of the plan Plan’s goal Social

Environment

Economics

• Enhance neighborhood perceived safety • Increasing affordable houses requirements (low-income houses) • Design elements that promote social cohesion, visibility, and eyes on the street • Evening park lighting implementation • Civic/cultural/art developments as social connection spaces • Kids’ playground

• Walkable sidewalks and bikeable streets • Establish Boston’s first carbon-free/climate-ready district • Green buildings/LEED gold or higher • Limit pollution and disruption of natural hydrology to manage stormwater • Increasing public open spaces • Bus service to the South Boston and waterfront • Improvements to the commuter Rail Transit (MBTA Red Line) • Lower minimum off-street parking requirements, as a vehicle trip reduction strategy

• Explicit requirements for the provision of public benefits in exchange for bonus height • Encourage job creation and small business growth • Inclusive development that improves awareness and access to funding resources • Local-neighborhood retail/amenities

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To achieve public benefits that the local community has prioritized during this bottom-up process a density bonus zoning tool was implemented to create value for potential developers. A density bonus was allowed in exchange for the provision of defined public benefits. The objectives were discussed, selected, and prioritized with workshops and community involvement (Table1). The Goals of the Plan, namely the achievable public benefits, can be monetized as value capture after the redevelopment. Up-zoning tools, increasing real-estate values, need to recapture this value increment for public benefit, known as Value Capture. Public benefits, also called “planning obligations” [27], are values added amenities, which private developers negotiate for with local planning authorities, in exchange of zoning premiums. Local authorities usually negotiate affordable housing percentage, infrastructures development, open and social spaces, and increase in parking requirements [28]. Several land use and zoning techniques, such as incentive zoning, negotiated zoning, and linkages, have been implemented to extract value capture in the negotiation processes [29]. In this case, the Plan was able to recapture public value through community engagement, setting the goals that the local society wanted to achieve for the area. The Plan can therefore be seen as value capture instruments since it creates value as a public benefit through up-zoning.

3 Method: Community Engagement Approach Unlike the top-down process, the bottom-up planning technique is a participatory process that involves the local community in the decision process, allowing local engagement in cooperation with the planning authorities to develop new zoning strategies in response to the needs of the population [30]. In the bottom-up process, the community is called to participate in sharing ideas and strategies to respond to local requirements. In the literature, an increase in environmental, social, and economic sustainability by applying a bottom-up process was identified, maximizing the effective use of available public resources [31, 32]. The bottom-up technique requires a ‘bottom level’, where the community is willing to share common needs, problems, and expectations, and is willing to be involved in the planning process. However, despite the public benefits that can be achieved by applying this methodology, previous reports identified some possible inefficiencies, directly proportional to the size of the community that is involved [19]. Furthermore, the larger the community the slower the planning process. The participatory process requires meetings and arrangements of stakeholders on possible conflicted topics, extending the planning time. In larger communities, bottom-up approaches are often implemented by selecting a smaller and representative number of participants, reducing the social and sustainability impact of this methodology. Further, bottom-up approaches usually face methodological weaknesses related to the difficulty in translating this urban procedure into legislation [33–35].

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Community education and training, through people’s empowerment and grassroot participation and action; are known to be structural elements of regenerationled integrated approaches of community development, encouraging participatory processes [36]. However, the Boston experience involved the local communities, with the bottomup process already in the early planning stages of redevelopment. Additionally, the area involved in the planning process was so narrow (only 144 Acre) that the entire community participated in the bottom-up process. The bottom-up technique was applied by stages, as described in Fig. 2. Each stage was implemented involving the local community, including residents, business and property owners, stakeholders, advocates, and visitors. Each step was held and organized by the BPDA with its planning team and other support of the city officials’. Figure 2 summarizes the stages of the goals, how and where each step was implemented and hosted, including the reaches outcomes. Unlike the previous planning processes, the Plan involved local communities in an interactive and iterative way, engaging the population during the evolution of the Plan, inviting them to participate in the process by attending public meetings hosted by the agency, and submitting written comments, ideas, and recommendations. Community meetings included workshop activities, working group meetings, walking, and cycling tours, and open sessions (Fig. 3). During this first Stage, the BPDA hosted an informative open house section, where residents were invited to share their ideas on comment boards asking their opinions and their experiences in the neighborhood, e.g. “What is important for the community?”, “Do you live/work/visit the area?”, “How do you move?”, “What is your idea for the area?”. About 150 residents responded, and more than 400 comments were gathered, providing shared ideas during this initial stage. Those who were unable to attend submitted could comment online. The second stage consisted of walking and cycling tours of the Area, led by City staff, to analyze the current local deficiencies with participants. This phase focused on themes such as public realm and streetscape, land use development and density, community resiliency, sustainability, mobility, and connectivity. Participants wrote a list of priorities for each of the four presented themes, emphasizing the community’s needs. During the third stage, the BPDA planning team presented comments from previous initiatives at several “visioning workshops”, that were hosted in public spaces Participants were asked to prioritize their observations, defining a ranking of the top five priorities. In this phase, approximately 80 members of the community, divided into eight teams, participated in a prioritization exercise, assessing the implications and positive or negative trade-offs associated with each priority. Following these workshops, community participants, led by planning team staff and Advisory Group members, simulated land use maps using colored “poker chips” representing different uses (residential, commercial, retail, public, industrial, and open space uses, Fig. 2). This fourth stage helped the local authorities to identify the best locations and density distribution for different land uses. Further, conceptual area masterplans were drafted, analyzing urban connections and open space distributions.

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Plan/Design

Bottom-up Approach To develop shared ideas and concepts on public and private uses of the Urban Research Area

Stages

How

Scope

Out come

Stage I: Open House

BPDA rooms open to the public. Info on the project and Study Area plans and demographical, geographical, mobility and business focuses were set up.

Residents were asked to share their ideas on comment boards “What do you care about?”, “Where do you live, work or visit?”, “How do you get around?”, “What is your vision?

More than 150 residents provided more than 400 comments, questions, and ideas on their vision for the area, reflecting the community’s needs. Those who were unable to attend submitted comments online.

Stage II: Walk and Bike tours

The BPDA hosted walking and biking tours of the Study Area

Exploring the Study Area, community assessed existing conditions in terms of mobility, connectivity (1), Public Realm (2) land use (3), community resiliency and sustainability (4)

Participants wrote a list of priorities in for each of the four presented themes, emphasizing community’s needs.

Stage III: Visioning Workshops

Several workshops were hosted in public spaces, organizing multiple coordinated meetings, dividing participants into round tables

Participants were asked to prioritize the comments previously collected to begin shaping a vision statement, assessing implications and trade-offs, either positive or negative.

Eight visions for the Area were drafted, focusing on key priorities, related to the four selected themes.

Stage IV: Plan and Design Workshops

The community discussed, coordinated by planning team staff and advisory group members, their area vision, using colored poker chip game pieces to negotiate density and location for land uses.

Identify best locations and density for residential, commercial, retail, civic/cultural/art, industrial, and open space uses.

Participants edited conceptual area masterplans and created their own land-use maps, creating urban connections, open space distributions, and density.

Several workshops aimed to revise previous outcomes, in conjunction with impacts of the updated Inclusionary Development Policy, lot coverage, open space, development costs, and public benefits.

Participants were asked to prioritize public benefits identified in previous workshops, in order to perform an economic feasibility analysis of future development.

A Draft Plan, that includes planning elements and emerging Recommendations in terms of public benefits, density, and landuses.

Open House with Interactive stations and visual boards in the meeting space. BPDA and City staff had the opportunity to discuss with the community members about specific physical elements of the Plan Draft.

Finalizing the Plan Draft, collecting additional output, ideas comments from the local community on the work conducted over the past year. Idea exchange between the community and planning team and other city officials

Presentation of Finalized Plan, which includes Area land vision through master plans, land-uses and transportation maps, density maps, public benefits list, and distribution plans.

Stage V: Dialogue Sessions and Draft

Stage VI: Open House, Draft Finalizing

Fig. 2 Bottom-up conceptual work model, implemented in stages, that was applied in the case study

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Fig. 3 Workshops, open houses, walk and bike tours and community’s meetings. Source PLAN: South Boston Dorchester avenue|planning report

The fifth Stage focused on explaining to local participants density bonuses above baseline zoning regulations in exchange for community benefits [29], and on discussing height-density distribution with respect to open space developments. Participants were asked to prioritize public benefits identified in previous workshops, in order to perform an economic feasibility analysis of the future development. The sixth and last stage consisted of another open house with interactive stations and visual boards. BPDA and City staff discussed with the community members about specific critical elements of the Plan Draft framework. Additional comments and ideas were collected and exanimated. This last stage was concluded by presenting the finalized Plan, which included Area land vision through master plans, land-uses and transportation maps, density maps, public benefits list, and distribution plans.

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4 Discussion and Conclusions In the South Boston case, the bottom-up approach was a successful instrument, applied in a real case study, that led to a quite rapid Plan sharing and approval. Community engagement, since preliminary stages, allowed to define of common objectives without delaying time and allowing the community to participate actively and interactively in the decision-making process. Currently, approximately six redevelopment projects have been submitted to the BPDA, some are still under review process, and some have already been approved by the Board, confirming the program’s success. In this case study and in urban regeneration programs, local community engagement becomes crucial in the successful implementation of urban planning. Local community engagement played indeed an essential role in South Boston Regeneration Plan. The involvement of the residents was fundamental in all the stages, starting from the ranking of priorities to the drafting of the project up to the definition of the Plan. Community engagement has been a crucial resource both in terms of planning strategies and of public benefit negotiations, increasing public value capture. Usually, bottom-up approaches need to face methodological weaknesses related to the difficulty in translating this urban procedure into legislation. However, in this case, the bottom-up approach applied by BPDA was particularly successful as it was structured starting from the initial stages in cooperation with local authorities according to a structured procedure developed in phases. Another methodological fragility is that the efficiency of the participatory processes is inversely proportional to the size of the community that is planned. This weakness is linked to time lengthening and to large areas planning complexity. In South Boston Regeneration Plan, the affected area was restricted to a local district, reducing the land size and thus the community sample to be involved. This size control allowed to overcome the inefficiencies due to the slowdown of the process. The South Boston case represents a successful implementation of the bottom-up approach. The area redevelopment is set to evolve over the next twenty years, and, in this period, it is crucial that the recommendations of the Plan are managed as a living document, capable of adapting over time with the participation of the community. Considering the case study’s success, it is the authors’ belief that it is particularly crucial that future work investigates repercussions that bottom-up approaches can have if applied in upscaled contexts, where timing and conflicting issues can emerge, limiting the success of this approach.

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Circular Economy and Social Circularity. Diffuse Social Housing and Adaptive Reuse of Real Estate in Internal Areas Simona Barbaro, Grazia Napoli, and Maria Rosa Trovato

Abstract In internal areas subject to depopulation, a high percentage of real estate assets remain unused not only because of short-term contingent factors (such as physical and technological obsolescence, mismatch between supply and demand, speculative expectations, etc.), but also because of long-term structural trends. Such properties become a ‘waste’ of the economic system, both as a private cost for owners and as a social cost for communities due to the huge quantity of natural, human and financial resources that had been invested in their realization. In line with the adaptive and ex-active reuse approach, vacant real estate stocks may be reused through their physical, technological and functional refurbishment. This can also be an opportunity to develop ‘social circularity’ and to experiment with models of spatially diffused Social Housing, in order to meet the demand for housing and social services by low-income groups, as well as to build community and social cohesion. Taking as an example the internal areas of Sicily (Italy), we propose the development of a multidimensional model to support the decision-making process of selection of unused buildings that have the suitable features to be included in a virtuous circuit of reuse to provide Social Housing. Keywords Adaptive reuse · Internal areas · Real estate asset · Multicriteria analysis · Social housing

S. Barbaro (B) · G. Napoli Department of Architecture, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy e-mail: [email protected] G. Napoli e-mail: [email protected] M. R. Trovato Department of Civil Engineering, University of Catania, Catania, Italy e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_14

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1 Circular Economy, Land Consumption and Sustainable Development Goals In the current global condition of resource scarcity and environmental and climate change, the debate on the impact generated on the environment by the linear, or extractivist, economic model has led to the promotion of the circular economic model. Studies of the relationships between the environmental and economic spheres made according to the Ecological economics approach [11, 16, 17] have highlighted the need to move from a “take-make-dispose” economic model to a new economic model that draws inspiration from the circular and cyclical biological systems. Such models have the advantage of preserving the natural capital by minimizing waste and optimizing the use of raw materials, as well as adopting strategies such as reusing, repairing, refurbishing, and recycling products, components and materials [4, 5]. According to Ellen MacArthur Foundation, the circular economy (CE) must be designed to regenerate and take every opportunity to limit the input of matter and energy and to minimize waste and losses, paying attention to the prevention of negative environmental externalities and the realization of new social and territorial value (Fig. 1) [12]. The CE principles promote both environmental and social sustainability, in fact they are the basis of the socio-economic-environmental feasibility of actions, plans and projects and the enhancement of the benefits that new economic activities can bring to the involved territories and communities. Indeed, just as the life and value

Fig. 1 Circular economy. Source Ellen MacArthur foundation

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Fig. 2 Policies and guidelines at Italian, EU and global level. Source [23]

of an object can be extended through the four phases of Reuse, Reconditioning, Regeneration and Recycling [30], degraded and abandoned territories, cities and districts can also regain their value and usefulness within a circular system [29]. Moreover, the CE principles are consistent with reducing the consumption of land, which provides the indispensable platform for human activities and also food biomass and raw materials. At the same time land is being damaged by emissions and waste generated by economic activities. In particular, land consumption depends on settlement dynamics such as urban growth and sprawl, construction of new buildings, land use change and territory infrastructure. Thus, CE and reducing land consumption are interconnected factors and contribute to meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In particular, Goals 11.3 and 15.3 aim to restore degraded lands and soils and promote sustainable urbanization to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe and sustainable [35] (Fig. 2). In addition, the European Union (EU) has also declared the protection of land, environmental heritage and landscapes as one of its aims and recognised the value of natural capital. For these purposes, the EU has asked member countries to reduce their net land consumption to zero by 2050 [13, 14]. As revealed by the Circular Economy Network report [10], Italy had the best performance in implementing CE principles in 2020. In contrast, its land consumption figures were some of the worst ever, as 52 net km2 of national land were consumed in 2019. This trend requires Italy to increase its efforts to limit land degradation, also to achieve the SDGs and those imposed by the EU. Based on these general premises, this paper is organized as follows. The next section provides a description of net land consumption throughout the Italian regions. Section 3 focuses on the relationship between unused buildings and population decline in Sicily. Section 4 lays out the principles of a double circularity, both economic and social, to be applied to the reuse of vacant buildings to provide diffuse

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social housing. In Sect. 5 the multiple dimensions of Social Housing are described. Two multicriteria models are proposed in Sect. 6 to select municipalities and buildings for the implementation of Social Housing projects. Finally, the conclusions are provided.

2 Net Land Consumption in Italy Land consumption in Italy is a critical factor for the sustainable development of the country. In 2019, there were 57.5 km2 of new artificial soil cover, of which only 5.6 km2 were offset by the restoration of natural areas, resulting in a total of 52.9 km2 of net land consumption. This implies that 14.2 ha per day were consumed in 2019, which is a net land consumption rate still far from the EU targets of zero net consumption in 2050 (Fig. 3) [23]. In addition, permanent consumption of land and land sealing increased respectively to 8.6 km2 and by a total of 22.1 km2 .

Fig. 3 Land consumption in Italy. Source Elaboration on data by Sistema Nazionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente—SNPA [33]

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Fig. 4 Land consumption in Italy at regional level and by geographical areas in 2019. Source Elaboration on data by Sistema Nazionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente—SNPA [33]

Therefore, these data clearly show that in Italy the level of artificialisation of the territory continues to rise, causing the loss of natural and agricultural areas, sometimes irreversibly. The land is consumed mainly by urban sprawl; in fact, “buildings” are the category of permanent land consumption with the highest incidence at 54% of the total [23]. The changes observed in 2019 were concentrated in a few regions; in particular, Veneto, Lombardy, Apulia and Sicily had the highest annual consumption of hectares of land. The highest rates of land consumption were recorded in Lombardy (12.05%), Veneto (11.87%), Campania (10.30%) and Emilia-Romagna (8.90%), while the highest annual percentage increase in land consumption occurred in the Sardinia and Sicily islands ( + 0.32%). In Sicily, the sealed surface of land increased by + 0.37% from 2018 to 2019, reaching a land consumption density of 2.38 m2 /ha, against the Italian average level of 1.72 m2 /ha (Fig. 4) [23]. In all the Italian regions, there has also been a trend, albeit a slow one, towards the transformation of rural areas into suburban and urban areas. For example, despite the decrease in the resident population between 2017 and 2019, in Sicily the rural areas decreased from 21,690 km2 to 21,658 km2 (−0.14%), while the suburban areas increased by + 0.71% and urban areas by + 1.14%. Sicily also recorded one of the highest values of land consumed for industrial use relative to the number of employees, about 93 m2 per employee, which is more than four times the national average consumption [20, 23]. So, to establish planning policies oriented to the redevelopment regeneration and re-functionalization of buildings and artificial areas is essential to avoid further land from being consumed for buildings, infrastructure, industry, commercial and service settlements, or from being transformed into sealed areas inside and outside existing cities, especially when demographic dynamics do not require it.

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3 Unused Buildings and Depopulation in Sicily The Sicilian territory was chosen to analyse the relationships between land consumption, demographic dynamics and buildings use. In 2020 there was a significant imbalance between the positive variation in land consumption and the negative population variation, which is express by the indicator Ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate. Although in Sicily this ratio is -0.68 and lower than the national average (−1.18), it still expresses the critical conditions of the land use in Sicily [23]. In fact, having high values of land consumption in a period of population decline means that urban and territorial policies are at odds with sustainable development goals, which will be completely disregarded if no action is taken to reverse the current trend. The population variation is calculated by the natural, i.e. births fewer deaths, and migration balances, which together have caused the loss of about 200,000 residents in 10 years (from 2011 to 2021) [20]. The negative consequences of this depopulation affect various economic sectors, including the construction industry and real estate. According to the 2011 census in Sicily, a high percentage of the buildings were unused. This phenomenon was widespread throughout the region—although in some municipalities it accounted for more than 40% of the total stock of buildings—and was concentrated mainly in internal areas with a weak economy (Fig. 5). The strong correlation between unused buildings rate and demographic dynamics rate is verified by the analysis of Sicilian municipalities with an unused buildings rate higher than 15% of total stock. Figure 6 clearly shows that in most of these municipalities, i.e. 26 out of 30, the high percentage of unused buildings also corresponds to a negative population variation in the years 2001–2019, with an average value of − 9.88% and several negative peaks between − 18 and − 25%. A high rate of unused buildings is an indicator of an underperforming, if not stalled, housing market and expresses a large mismatch between supply and demand that occurs when the municipality’s housing stocks are no longer commensurate with the number of residents and the housing units are in excess of residents’ needs. In some market segments, this mismatch may be related to short-term contingent factors (such as physical and technological obsolescence, speculative expectations, etc.) and/or long-term structural trends such as a lasting process of population decline. In addition, when market prices are particularly low, many obsolete properties go unused because there is no economic feasibility for their transformation. It is therefore necessary to intervene with planning policies to prevent both depopulation and the consumption of natural and agricultural land, activating a system of social circularity that can, at the same time, find new uses for the housing stocks. These uses have to be economically and socially beneficial and capable of reversing depopulation trend by attracting new residents and supporting the recovery of the urban and local economic system.

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Fig. 5 Unused buildings and depopulation in Sicily. Source Elaboration on data by Istituto Nazionale di Statistica—ISTAT [20]

4 Real Estate, Territorial and Social Circularities Unused real estate can be defined as a “waste” of the economic system, but according to the Three R’s approach–Reduce Reuse Recycle–it can be put back into the production cycle. Unused real estate properties constitute both a private cost for owners and a social cost for local communities; they “incorporate” natural (e.g. land, materials, energy) as well as human and financial resources that had been invested in their construction, but they have actually a “potential value”. The adaptive and ex-active reuse of real estate assets involves the physical, technological and functional renovation of buildings and thus allows the activation of a circle of private and social value production, paying attention to the balance between efficiency and fairness [27]. On the other hand, among the circularity principles defined by the European Commission towards a general strategy for a sustainable built environment, there

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60% % variation in population 2001-2019 50% % unused buildings (2011) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%

-30%

Raccuja Vita Tripi Mongiuffi Melia Limina Gualtieri Sicaminò Novara di Sicilia Motta d'Affermo Mandanici Cassaro Fondachelli-Fantina Pagliara Roccafiorita Galati Mamertino Rodì Milici Tortorici Forza d'Agrò Francavilla di Sicilia Roccavaldina Bompensiere Ferla Graniti Frazzanò Cammarata Alì Castiglione di Sicilia Naso Basicò Grotte Gallodoro Ficarra Burgio Ventimiglia di Sicilia San Pier Niceto Maletto Leni Torretta Alessandria della Rocca Salemi Camporeale Castelmola Raffadali Castroreale Saponara San Teodoro Casteltermini Itala Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto Bompietro Palazzo Adriano Santa Domenica Vittoria Blufi Aragona Lercara Friddi Piraino Roccamena Petralia Soprana Sclafani Bagni Montalbano Elicona Librizzi

-20%

Fig. 6 Depopulation in Sicilian municipalities with an unused buildings rate higher than 15%. Source Elaboration on data by Istituto Nazionale di Statistica—ISTAT

is the enhancement of Adaptive Reuse (AR) of buildings. In fact, the AR of unused buildings can bring benefits of various kinds (such as environmental, social, economic, etc.) that can be assessed through a variety of evaluation tools, at different scales. Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is able to support the decision process regarding, for example, the reuse of an historic district in the AR framework [1], while sustainability protocols for residential and non-residential buildings [15] are evolving from the neighborhood to the urban scale supporting the transition to the CE paradigm [21]. Another positive element of reusing buildings is that a greater natural land consumption is avoided, in accordance with the European goal of zero net land consumption mentioned in Sect. 1. In the case of internal areas, the reuse of high shares of buildings is intertwined with the phenomenon of depopulation that causes social deprivation in terms of identity crises of local communities, physical decay of buildings and public spaces, reduction/loss of urban services, etc. Regional and municipal administrations are committed to establishing effective territorial policies and appropriate investments to repopulate internal areas and relaunch economic development, that reverse current recessionary trends. In the last few years, several Sicilian municipalities (e.g. Salemi, Racalmuto, Gangi, etc.) have launched sales campaigns called “House for one euro”, as an extreme tool to attract new inhabitants, posing questions about economic efficiency and equity, and considerations on the reduction of the “Geographical debt” [18]. Some of the unused buildings could be recovered to create diffuse Social Housing (SH), activating not only the circularity that generates economic value, but also the

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Fig. 7 Real estate, territorial and social circularities

social circularity based on the following three lines of action, which are: territorial rebalance of population, social participation and social inclusion (Fig. 7). The first one is oriented to contain the polarization of human and economic resources in the coastal municipalities or large cities. The other two are aimed at building communities, even small ones, based on participation and sharing of spaces and services that, in fact, coincide with SH’s founding principles, as they go beyond simply providing low-cost housing. Shared services can also be made available to neighborhood residents to weave a network of relationships that reinforce identity values between newcomers and the host community. Furthermore, these models have to adapt to new trends in proxemic scales caused by the social distancing rules of COVID-19 time, which have already altered the perception and use of public space [22] as well as the requirements of residential buildings [34] and the traditional concept of housing adequacy [28]. Spatially diffused social housing has the quality of fitting well into the urban fabric, especially in the historic centre, where there is a frequent concentration of unused buildings due to physical and functional obsolescence [2]. Their requalification through social housing projects can become an additional action that contributes to the preservation of the historical building heritage.

5 Social Housing and Its Multiple Dimensions Social housing is the set of activities aimed at providing housing solutions for those families whose needs cannot be satisfied under market conditions and for which there are allocation rules. SH is an instrument of housing policy and it aims to provide affordable housing for those groups of people in an economically and socially

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disadvantaged position who have difficulty finding suitable accommodation for their needs at the housing market prices, but who can afford reduced rents or purchase prices [19]. Each European country has its own regulations on SH, which has led to the setting of heterogeneous housing policies and practices. Therefore, SH can have very different characteristics concerning its spread on the territory, but also to the target groups and the eligibility criteria. Despite the differences, SH combines the primary goal of providing affordable housing to eligible households with the goals of promoting smart communities by promoting common spaces and services and of urban regeneration. SH has a complex structure in which multiple dimensions are interconnected: • the social dimension, which concerns the goal of building communities based on principles of participation and inclusion of people in fragile or poor conditions, such as low-income young couples and elderly people, commuter students, etc.; • the economic-financial dimension, which covers several aspects. One of this is establishing eligibility criteria, including financial ones, of households to access to SH. Another is to define the economic conditions of the offer to rent or sell considering households income thresholds [24, 26]. Other aspects are related to the financing sources of SH projects, which can be implemented with public and/or private funds; • the management dimension, which aims to promote innovative models, enhancing interpersonal relationships and involving the inhabitants of SH in the care and management of shared spaces and services; • the architectural dimension, as innovative and energy-efficient design and construction techniques are used in SH projects; moreover, these projects often contribute to urban regeneration actions, especially in peripheral, degraded or abandoned areas (Fig. 8). In Italy, in 2008 the “Piano Nazionale di Edilizia Abitativa—PNEA” (National Housing Plan) provided for the setting of national and local systems of real estate funds aimed at supporting the construction of residential buildings through the use

Fig. 8 The Social Housing dimensions

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of innovative real estate financial instruments and with the participation of both public and private entities [6]. As a result, the “Sistema Integrato dei Fondi”— SIF (Integrated System of Real Estate Funds) for social housing and the “Fondo Investimenti per l’Abitare”—FIA (Investment Fund for Housing) were established in 2009. In particular, FIA was set up by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) to invest in the private social housing sector and to promote the setting of other local funds with the same purpose, in order to increase and spread the supply of social housing throughout the country in support of and in addition to state and local housing policies. The fund is managed by CDP Investimenti Sgr and in 2014 had more than 2 billion euros in capital, of which 1 billion was subscribed by CDP, 140 million by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport and 888 million by bank and insurance groups, as well as private pension funds (Fig. 9) [8, 9]. In the ten years since the PNEA was set, CDPI has approved the co-funding of 260 projects, corresponding to 19,000 social housing units and 6800 beds in temporary and student residences. Regrettably, the distribution of Social Housing projects has been uneven across Italy. In fact, the distribution of FIA resources up to 2014 showed a marked disproportion in favour of Northern Italy, where 73% of investments were concentrated, compared to the Centre (20%) and particularly the South, where the percentage of resources invested was very modest, at just 7% [8]. Most of the projects implemented have led to offering SH units at reduced rents (65%); the remaining part was intended for rent with the right of redemption (18%) and sale at reduced

Fig. 9 Funds of Social Housing in 2014

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prices (17%), meeting the demand of those who find it difficult to buy a house at an affordable price. It is interesting to note that only a portion of SH projects designs new buildings; while, another part consists of the refurbishment of the existing building stocks, through the purchase of unsold properties, the restarting of interrupted construction sites or the completion of abandoned urban areas [9]. Social Housing has therefore emerged as an attractive opportunity for experimentation and innovation in the architectural, financial and social sectors, and has also become a tool that can be used to implement policies for the regeneration of cities and territories.

6 An Evaluation Model for Diffuse Social Housing in Internal Areas A multicriteria model is proposed for the selection of those municipalities and unused properties that can be used for the implementation of social housing projects in internal areas subject to depopulation. The model is developed both at urban and building level. The model at “Urban level” aims at supporting the selection of municipalities where to apply a territorial policy oriented to the repopulation and reuse of unused buildings. The criteria are “Real estate stock”, “Socio-economic characteristics”, and “Urban quality” (Fig. 10). The criterion “Real estate stock” is defined primarily by the rates of unused buildings and dwellings, with the goal of intercepting municipalities that have high shares of unused buildings to be reintegrated into a new economic circuit. The sub-criterion “Urbanized land” also brings into the model the ability to target choice by prioritizing municipalities where the rate of urbanized land is already very high in order to limit further consumption of natural land. The criterion “Socio-economic characteristics” is divided into sub-criteria and indicators that describe the conditions of possible weakness of each municipality from the demographic, social and income point of views. The criterion “Urban quality” is composed of sub-criteria related to facilities and services, as well as to urban and interurban mobility. The inclusion of the subcriterion “Architectural quality” is significant because SH redevelopment projects can also preserve the historic buildings and urban fabrics that are typical of many small towns in internal areas. The model at “Building level” consists of the “Location”, “Building characteristics” and “Economic characteristics” criteria (Fig. 11). For the development of a diffuse SH, a particularly advantageous feature is a suitable location for making a network where nodes (i.e. buildings) are close to each other. This requirement has several functions, such as facilitating the use of common spaces and services, supporting the development of neighborly relationships among

Circular Economy and Social Circularity. Diffuse … Criteria

Sub-criteria I Level

Real estate features Real estate stock Market prices

Demographic dynamics

URBAN LEVEL

Socio-economic characteristics

Income level

Social vulnerability

Architectural quality

Facilities

Urban quality

Services

Urban mobility

Inter-urban mobility

Sub-criteria II Level

241 Indicators

Unused buildings

Rate of unused buildings

Unused dwellings

Rate of unused dwellings

Urbanized land

Rate of urbanized land

Housing market price

Average price

Housing rent

Average rent

Population

No. Inhabitants

Population variation

Annual variation

Age pyramid

Old-age index

Population density

Inhabitants/urbanized land

Population income

Average income

Gini index

Index/regional average

Unemployment rate

Rate/regional average

Social and material vulnerability index

Index/regional average

Ranking of municipalities in the vulnerability index

Ranking/total

Historic fabric

Quality score

Historic buildings

Quality score

School

Quantity/inhabitants

Leisure

Quantity/inhabitants

Sports

Quantity/inhabitants

Cultural

Quantity/inhabitants

Green areas

Surface/inhabitants

Welfare

Quantity/inhabitants

Health

Quantity/inhabitants

Private transport

Quality score

Public transport

Existence/absence

Slow mobility (walking or cycling)

Quality score

Highway

Existence/absence

Railway

Existence/absence

Intercity bus service

Number of cities connected by

Fig. 10 Evaluation model at urban level

all households and neighborhood residents, etc. The network of housing units can obviously also take advantage of proximity to existing services. The unused buildings are described by technical characteristics, such as size, number of floors, etc., but, especially, by the susceptibility to transformation so as to meet the needs of the eligible households. Among the target groups, for example, elderly people and young couple with children have different needs for living spaces but have the common necessity to eliminate or reduce interior architectural barriers and improve accessibility to the home from/to the outdoors. Of course, the refurbishment project can solve some problems, but it is important to assess in advance the potential or inescapable building constraints that facilitate/oppose the transformation. The sub-criterion “Ownership” is included in the model because the type of ownership (i.e. private, public or mixed), as well as the number of owners, hinders/facilitates

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Criteria

Sub-criteria I Level Susceptibility to SH network

Location

Sub-criteria II Level Distance to other potential SH buildings

Average distance

Proximity to facilities

Quantity within 5 minutes walking

Proximity to care services

Quantity within 5 minutes walking

Size

T otal sur face

BUILDING LEVEL

Proximity

Technical characteristics

Building characteristics Susceptibility to transformation

Economic characteristics

Purchase price Ownership

Indicators

Building elevation

Number of floors

Building typology

Quality score

State of conservation

Quality score

Spaces suitable for common services

Quality score

Spaces suitable for elderly people

Quality score

Spaces suitable for young couple with children

Quality score

Removability of architectural barriers

Quality score

Planning constraints

Quantity

Purchase price

Market price

Public, private or mixed

Quality score

Sole or partitioned

Quality score

Fig. 11 Evaluation model at building level

the bureaucratic process of acquiring buildings, especially in a case of diffuse SH where, most likely, many different stakeholders are involved. The proposed models can be used to apply Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to the case study. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), as well as MACBETH or a model of the ELECTRE family, can support the decision at the urban level because they provide a ranking as an output [7, 31, 32]. Instead, cluster analysis or ELECTRE TRI-nC could select groups (i.e. clusters) of buildings to form a diffuse SH network [3, 25].

7 Conclusions High shares of unused buildings are often located in internal areas subject to depopulation and with a weak economy. If these buildings are included in a reuse circuit, they can be transformed from waste to private and social resources and also contribute to the reduction of natural land consumption. This study analyzes the possibility of activating a double circularity, the economic one, by transforming waste (i.e., unused buildings) into resources (i.e., social housing), and the social one, by following a territorial policy based on the repopulation of the municipalities in the internal areas through projects of widespread Social Housing. Based on the Sicilian case study

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data, a multi-criteria model is proposed to support decision making at urban level for selecting the municipalities and at building level for sorting a few clusters of buildings for the implementation of widespread SH networks. Future developments and deepening of the study will be the application of some MCDA approaches (e.g. AHP, ELECTRE TRI-nC, cluster analysis) to subject the two proposed models to operational verification.

References 1. Abastante F, Lami IM, Mecca B (2020) How to revitalise a historic district: a stakeholdersoriented assessment framework of adaptive reuse. In: Mondini G, Oppio A, Stanghellini S, Bottero M, Abastante F (eds) Values and functions for future cities. GET, pp 3–20. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23786-8_1 2. Abbate G (2020) Southern historical centres: towards which future? In: Pascariello MI, Veropalumbo A (eds) The city as palimpsest: tracks, views and narrations on the complexity of historical urban contexts: 2. representation, knowledge, conservation. Federico II University Press, Napoli, pp 469–475 3. Almeida-Dias J, Figueira JR, Roy B (2012) A multiple criteria sorting method where each category is characterized by several reference actions: The Electre Tri-nC method. European J Oper Res 217(3):567–579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2011.09.047 4. Andersen MS (2006) An introductory note on the environmental economics of the circular economy. Sustain Sci 2:133–140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-006-0013-6 5. Andrews D (2015) The circular economy, design thinking and education for sustainability. Local Econ 30(3):305–315. https://doi.org/10.1177/0269094215578226 6. Associazione Nazionale Costruttori Edili (2008) Piano Nazionale di Edilizia Abitativa. Available online https://www.casaportale.com/public/uploads/ANCE_Piano%20Casa. pdf. Accessed 26 Apr 2022 7. Bana e Costa CA, Vansnick J-C (1997) Applications of the MACBETH approach in the framework of an additive aggregation model. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 6(2):107–114 8. Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (2014) Social Housing. Il mercato immobiliare in Italia: focus sull’edilizia sociale. Report monografico. Available online https://www.cdp.it/resources/cms/ documents/3524753ef427665f31b668b176f7c5bf.pdf. Accessed 26 Apr 2022 9. CDP Immobiliare Sgr. Available online https://www.cdpisgr.it. Accessed 26 Apr 2022 10. Circular Economy Network (2022) Quarto rapporto sull’Economia Circolare in Italia, 2022. Available online https://circulareconomynetwork.it/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Rap porto-sulleconomia-circolare-2022-CEN.pdf. Accessed 26 Apr 2022 11. Costanza R, Cumberland JC, Daly HE, Goodland R, Norgaard R, Kubiszewski I, Franco C (2014) An introduction to ecological economics. Taylor and Francis 12. Ellen MacArthur Foundation. Available online https://ellenmacarthurfoundation.org. Accessed 26 Apr 2022 13. European Commission (2020) COM(2020) 98 final. A new circular economy action plan. For a cleaner and more competitive Europe, Bruxelles 14. European Parliament and Council (2013) Decision No 1386/2013/EU on a general union environment action programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’, Bruxelles 15. Gaballo M, Mecca B, Abastante F (2021) Adaptive reuse and sustainability protocols in Italy: relationship with circular economy. Sustainability 13(14):8077. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1314 8077 16. Georgescu-Roegen N (1971) The entropy law and the economic process. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass

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The Value of Spaces in the Digital Revolution

The Value of Spaces in the Digital Revolution Francesca Salvo

Abstract The paper aims to discuss the theme of value of spaces in the digital revolution. The diffusion of information and communications technologies has outlined the birth and development of new models, strategies and paradigms, whose common denominator is the high degree of automation and interconnection, a founding element of that epochal turning point known as “Fourth Industrial Revolution”. One of the main directions of this phenomenon is represented by the design of physical or digital environments in which humans and technological systems interact in increasingly open, connected, coordinated and intelligent ecosystems. From the design of smart cities to the construction of smart homes, it is now increasingly clear that real estate appraisal discipline must approach the assessment of new real estate types, the consideration of fuzzy market segments, the valuation of complex property variables, linked both to new communication and information technologies and to qualitative dimensions related to individual and community well-being and to the health of the environment itself. After framing the theme of digital spaces in the context of the digital revolution, the contribution deepens the aspects related to smart homes, providing the identification of the main estimation methodologies with particular regard to the approach of hedonic prices and the Contingent Valuation Method. Keywords Smart cities · Smart homes · Real estate appraisal

1 Introduction The pandemic event produced by Covid 19 has determined a deep cultural, social and economic crisis which has nevertheless shown the importance of information and communication technologies, that is, those models and strategies characterized by a high degree of automation and interconnection, able to provide a response to the new needs of human, social, productive and relational experience. In fact, despite the pandemic event has led to important limitations in our lives, information F. Salvo (B) Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Rende, Italy e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_15

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and communications technologies have allowed us to continue to carry out all our activities related to the working, cultural and social contests. It is well known that we are experiencing the “Fourth Industrial Revolution”, an epochal turning point that has occurred starting from the industry sector and which is based on the automation of industrial production processes, but which has actually ended up involving different dimensions of human life from working to productive, from economic to relational [1, 2]. These automation processes that involves different activities and dimensions of human life, has had important repercussions also in the design of spaces, which are becoming “digital spaces”, physical or virtual environments characterized by the interaction between human beings and technological systems, a sort of ecosystem in which people and digital products relate [3]. We can trace the perspectives of the future spaces, environments that, thanks to the availability of tools and connected networks, will allow us to improve the level of comfort and well-being but also to work in more flexible environments, in intelligent and cognitive contexts, to substantially improve the quality of life and work and the production performance. Starting from the smart homes, our homes of the future, passing through the smart buildings and even more for smart infrastructure, it’s possible to forecast the realization of smart cities, the most complete expression of intelligent spaces in which the efficient interaction between urban ecosystems can be experienced. The appraisal discipline, due to its transversal nature, is strongly involved in the technological, economic, territorial and social processes in place. In this context, urban spaces are conceived differently and therefore it is necessary to question the economic impact in terms of value of the new spaces. It is also necessary to question the different appreciation that new real estate variables have, and consequently to promote the evolution of valuation methodologies to be used in these contexts.

2 The Fourth Industrial Revolution The Covid 19 pandemic event has brought a significant change in people’s lifestyle, limited in physical movements and therefore conditioned in various areas of life, from private and relational contest to work. However, information and communication technologies have allowed us to continue to work, study, maintain social relations, travel virtually and many other activities that until some time ago we never imagined could be carried out from home. We are in the middle of that epochal turning point known as the «Fourth Industrial Revolution» [1]. The fourth industrial revolution is the growing fusion of physical, digital and biological worlds. The sum of advances in artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, the Internet of Things (Iot), 3D printing, genetic engineering, quantum computers and other technologies [4].

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The fourth industrial revolution is changing society as never before and finds roots in the first three industrial revolutions. The advent of the steam engine in the eighteenth century led to the first industrial revolution, allowing for the first time the mechanization of production and promoting a social change driven by people urbanization. In the second industrial revolution, electricity and other scientific advances led to mass production. The third industrial revolution, which began in the 1950s, saw the birth of computers and digital technology. This has led to the increasing automation of production and the disruption of sectors such as banking, energy and communications. Klaus Schwab, founder and executive director of the World Economic Forum is the one who has labeled today’s progress as a new revolution [5]. The Fourth Industrial Revolution identifies a new era in which industries, driven by the need to compete in a market that has become global, found in technological innovation the answer to remain efficient, to improve work organization and quality, to reduce production costs. Artificial intelligence is destined to be one of the key technologies in the radical transformation of the economy, society and the labor market, with other fundamental aspects of intelligent industry, such as: • Internet of Things: designed to establish a connection between the physical and digital worlds: billions of devices are already interconnected and more and more devices are becoming intelligent; • Cobot: Robotics is constantly evolving and cobots, designed to interact physically with humans in collaborative environments, will be key to industry. Among other things, they optimize production and prevent employees from performing monotonous and dangerous tasks; • Augmented reality and virtual reality: technologies combining the real world and the digital one using information technology enrich the visual experience of both users and consumers by generating immersive experiences; • 3D and 4D printing: technologies designed to develop prototypes—or products for sale—quickly, accurately and cheaply with 3D and 4D printing. This technology is becoming increasingly important in design, architecture, engineering, etc. • Big data: information is power. The Fourth Industrial Revolution will allow us to transform data into information. Big data allows massive data management and interpretation for business purposes, which is particularly relevant when developing business strategies or making decisions. Like previous revolutions, the Fourth Industrial Revolution has the purpose of changing national and world economic balances and of improving the quality of life of people and workers throughout the world.

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3 Smart Spaces In this scenario, the design of intelligent spaces is the right expression: physical and virtual places whose main feature is the high degree of digitalization that is achieved through automation and interconnection. Smart spaces, also known as connected places, are physical places with networked sensors to give information about the conditions of such places and how they are used. Smart spaces show many advantages such as environmental benefits and cost savings: smart spaces reduce energy costs through real-time regulation of heating, cooling and lighting based on climate change and building occupation. Because they can be monitored and adjusted remotely, smart spaces reduce carbon footprint and save money. Another advantage that can be attributed to smart spaces is risk mitigation: smart space remote monitoring and control capabilities allow supervisors to grasp problems in advance and often help prevent them before they start. Anticipating or detecting early warning signals related to heating problems, plumbing and other infrastructure, intelligent spaces can reduce costly repairs and inconvenience to occupants. In an era where everything is “smart”, talking about “Smart Spaces” is not surprising. Yet the meaning and implications behind this concept are deeper than it seems. Calling them “intelligent spaces” does not mean to lead them back to virtual realities but, rather, to real spaces—physical ones—innervated with digital technologies useful for man and interacting with him, in a new human–machine relationship. Digital spaces can be implemented on different scales [6]. On a small scale, digital spaces can be realized through the so-called smart home [7, 8]. The Smart Home uses home automation technology to simplify the management of the home. An added value that allows to live in a more comfortable environment and save energy and time, more and more precious in today’s frenetic society. A smart home is equipped with a home automation system, which allows it to coordinate, with ease, all the systems, equipment and electro-household of the house, connected to each other, through a single program or control device, which can be a tablet, a remote control or a pan in the touch screen. The advantages of a smart home are practical as programming the lighting and switching off of the lights of the home, the opening or closing of the blinds and the shutters, the entrance doors and the shutters; air conditioning and regulating the temperature of the rooms or even only of the individual rooms, planning the irrigation of the garden or plants on the terrace, manage the heating of water for sanitary use through boiler, water heater or solar panels; program the operation, on and off of household appliances, such as: refrigerator, washing machine, dishwasher, oven, stove, TV, stereo system and telephone; also remotely manage the operation of smart appliances. A smart home is also designed to constantly display and monitor energy consumption.

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Further advantages concern safety and remote management: monitor through video all the home environments of the house; program and manage the entry and access systems to it, those of intrusion, communication between inside and outside, fire and/or flood proof. From smart homes, the next scale is that of smart buildings, whose systems are managed in an intelligent and automated way [9]. The objectives of building automation are the improvement of occupant comfort, the efficient operation of building systems, the reduction of energy consumption, the reduction of operating costs, the increase of safety, historical performance documentation, remote access/control/operation and life-cycle improvement of equipment and related users. They are more environmentally friendly thanks to the efficient management of energy and heat reduce waste, energy and emission of harmful substances in the air. Almost all green multi-story buildings are designed to have a BAS (Building Automation System) for energy, air and water saving features. The answer to the question of electrical devices is a typical function of a BAS, as well as the more sophisticated monitoring of ventilation and humidity required by isolated “narrow” buildings. Most eco-friendly buildings also use as many low-power DC devices as possible. Even a passive house project designed to consume no net energy of any kind will typically require a BAS to manage heat capture, shading and venting and the use of the planning device. Automation is also now essential in the management of the so-called intelligent infrastructures, permanent assets that ensure the operation and economic activity of the transport, energy, telecommunications and health sectors, that through technology will be able to increase operational efficiency and improve environmental and social impact. They are hospitals, airports, railways, schools, museums, banks and many others that are enabled by technologies such as IoT, offering numerous benefits that bring significant savings and efficiencies [10, 11]. The massive demand for adequate infrastructure—such as water and energy resources and the organization of traffic and transport—implies the need to ensure better use of resources and lower emissions. It means smarter urban transport, more efficient ways of lighting and renovating buildings and providing and consuming energy efficiently. This includes the design of housing, buildings and integrated infrastructure, that is, urban environments digitalized and interconnected in terms of mobility, security and primary resources such as water and energy, overcoming environmental obstacles. Cities are the engines of the world economy and from them derive the greatest impacts on the environment. The development of our planet is inextricably linked to the development of cities [12]. A smart city is that urban space aimed at optimizing and innovating public services, so as to connect the material infrastructure with human, intellectual and social capital, thanks to the widespread use of technologies, with the aim of improving quality of life and meeting the needs of citizens, businesses and institutions [13, 14]. They are the best example of intelligent spaces in which the virtuous combination of urban ecosystems can be realized.

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A smart city should therefore propose itself as an enabling platform for the activities that citizens are able to develop by connecting those inherited from the past with those that can be realized in the future, focusing not only on applications but on the possibility that citizens need to achieve them [15].

4 Real Estate Appraisal for Smart Homes For a home to be defined as “smart”, it should be equipped with systems connected to the network for the control, automation and optimization of functions such as security or entertainment, temperature, lighting, remote control by phone, tablet, computer, etc. The existence of smart home automation technologies certainly contributes to increasing the market value of the property: market information shows higher prices and shorter market times than traditional homes. The design and style of a home are among the main factors that drive people to buy a home. In addition, the ability to perform daily and routine tasks with a simple touch of a button can further entice the purchase of a property. Despite having a higher initial cost, there are numerous advantages making the house more appealing. These features can result in better productivity, convenience, security, safety, and a higher quality of life. Smart home devices add security, safety, comfort, convenience, energy efficiency, and value through time among other ways. As mentioned earlier, smart devices help to provide stronger protection to a home. For most people, safety and security is the most important determining factor that goes into buying a property, despite the concern of if it is for residential or commercial purposes. Smart devices such as door locks, video doorbells, security cameras, and others can improve a home’s security system remarkably, providing control to the homeowner and power over one’s place of residence. With regard to security benefits, smart devices such as door locks, security cameras, video entry phones and others can greatly improve a home security system, providing the owner of the house with direct control of what happens in the house. Another central aspect of smart design is related to the themes of comfort and convenience. These are entertainment systems such as smart TVs and built-in headphones, or the ability to monitor lighting and blinds using the smartphone. In both cases, users are interested in immediate, convenient and visible benefits. A central role in increasing the market value of home smart homes is linked to the fact that the use of different smart devices saves on energy consumption [16]: smart lighting, smart plugs, smart appliances, smart thermostats, etc. In addition to the fact that most smart devices can turn off automatically when not in use, they are also equipped with energy-saving components. The possibility of reducing the amount of electricity and water bills by choosing a smart home, is evidently a great incentive to purchase.

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Smart homes can also help saving time. Many actions such as starting the oven, adjusting the temperature in home manually, or remembering to lock the door are automatic. With the wide-ranging automation that smart devices provide, people can increase their productivity and spend more time with other essential things like eating dinner rather than preparing it, or even using the time saved to be with loved ones. Smart homes allow to avoid frustrations and only focus on essential things in life. It is also one of the reasons why smart homes claim to be capable of improving the quality of life, also in the perspective of green emergencies [17]. What is undoubted is that, with the advent of smart homes, consumer preferences change. Appraising smart home value previews the competition of some variable ones different from those until today considered, which as an example: • the acoustic comfort. The new spaces recreate optimal conditions of acoustic comfort, eliminating, with appropriate planning, the noise pollution that leads, in fact, to a deterioration of the quality of life; • environmental comfort. This includes the energy efficiency and technology component; • visual comfort. The buildings are equipped with a dedicated and specific lighting. In this context, the use of home automation is particularly important, allowing a more efficient design ensuring an optimal result. The domotics component, therefore, in addition to raising the degree of comfort and practicality, undoubtedly contributes to increase the value of new buildings compared to traditional ones. The concept of smart homes outlines a rethinking of the economic-valuative analysis of the market segment; if until about twenty years ago the residential and management sectors were well distinguished, today the boundaries of the different branches of the real estate market are increasingly blurred. Thus, in the real estate landscape, new market segments are emerging, to be identified and studied in their components. The digital revolution of spaces, in fact, involves the entire real estate and territorial ecosystem.

5 Methodology The market price of a property is a function of the real estate features amounts and the monetary contribution these characteristics make to price formation. In order to appraise a smart home is therefore necessary quantify the hedonic price of all the real estate characteristics that contribute to determine the total price. As previously stated, smart homes show different peculiarities compared to traditional houses and therefore it is necessary to quantify the contribution that these peculiarities make to price formation [18].

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The valuation of the hedonic prices can be carried out indirectly by defining formulations deriving from the application of the economic postulates (market value, cost value, transformation value, complementary value, replacement value). When conditions are met, it is possible to determine the hedonic prices of the smart home feature through the Paired Data Analysis (PDA) [19]. The PDA is an appraisal procedure that allows the hedonic prices of the real estate characteristics to be assessed by comparing two or more real estate properties that have equal amounts for all characteristics except for the one or those for which the hedonic price has to be estimated. This is a practical procedure which can be applied in situations where the data is available and where there is a level playing field (except the one considered). The PDA allows to represent an elementary valuative comparison and to define a general comparison function. It is necessary to underline that direct estimation for some of the smart home peculiarities cannot be carried out through direct valuation by applying the economic criteria, since they can be classified as qualitative characteristics. For the latter, the determination of the hedonic price is carried out through the application of a market-oriented procedure such as the Appraisal System, the Differences System, the Distribution System [20, 21]. Then, when conditions are optimal in terms of sample size, it is possible to determine hedonic prices of the real estate characteristics of smart homes through the application of statistic model such as the multiple regression [22]. Finally, it should be noted that for certain purely qualitative variables, such as perceived comfort, well-being and safety, for which there is not always a reference market, it is possible to use market simulation methods, for example through Contingent Valuation. This method consists in the possibility to measure quantitatively the variations of the surplus underlying the demand curve of the investigated property, that is, the measure of the Willingness to Pay (WTP) of a certain population to obtain an improvement, quantity or quality, in the supply of the assessment asset. The practical technique consists in the creation of a hypothetical market in which the object of study probably falls, and in the selection of a statistically meaningful sample that represents the population potentially interested in the asset. Within this market, a variation in the supply of the asset is assumed and, through direct interview to each of the members of the sample itself, the willingness to pay a certain amount of money for the asset described in the hypothetical scenario is asked [23]. The estimation studies, in the coming years, thanks to the availability of real estate data, will test the validity of these methodologies in relation to the market value of smart homes. At the moment these data are not available or not complete, given the recent presence on the market of this type of real estate in the Italian reality.

6 Conclusion The methodological approaches that have emerged in recent times regarding the theme of the value of spaces in the digital revolution are many and various.

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The theme of digital spaces involves different disciplines and approaches, both related to environmental ecosystems, emerging the need to reconcile technological innovations with environmental and social emergencies, this is the case, for example, of the mutualism linked to digital networks and to economic ones, such as the change in preferences in the real estate sector. It is, however, also a transversal issue, involving the area of urban planning and regeneration, mobility, rehabilitation of urban centers, tourism, etc. We are slowly moving from everyday life to virtuality. Technology in itself is neither positive nor negative, but neither is it neutral. It generates new fields of action and therefore new limits, new rules of the game, new ways of living and thinking. The challenge, therefore, lies in the need to recompose different demands and emergencies, often seemingly irreconcilable, imposing the involvement of all sciences in an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approach, whose research and analysis elements must, however, be summarized. The appraisal discipline, thanks to its ability to approach different themes, is able to interact uneven elements and to orient choices through the formulation of ordinary judgments, capable of addressing the complexity of technological processes while respecting the needs of economic, natural and social ecosystems. Real estate must be regarded as community property and become an investment asset again. For this to happen, it is necessary to intervene in the regulatory, financial, urban planning and fiscal framework, to remove the obstacles that prevent the implementation of investment processes and to start transformation programs, urban regeneration and regeneration in the light of the socio-cultural changes in place.

References 1. Davis N (2016) What is the fourth industrial revolution. In: World Economic Forum, vol 19 2. Xu M, David JM, Kim SH (2018) The fourth industrial revolution: opportunities and challenges. Int J Financial Res 9(2):90–95 3. Komninos N (2013) Intelligent cities: innovation, knowledge systems and digital spaces. Routledge 4. Rymarczyk J (2020) Technologies, opportunities and challenges of the industrial revolution 4.0: theoretical considerations. Entrepreneurial Bus Econ Rev 8(1), 185–198. 5. Schwab K (2017) The fourth industrial revolution. Currency 6. Klein, C., & Kaefer, G. (2008, September). From smart homes to smart cities: Opportunities and challenges from an industrial perspective. In International Conference on Next Generation Wired/Wireless Networking (pp. 260–260). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. 7. Chan M, Estève D, Escriba C, Campo E (2008) A review of smart homes—present state and future challenges. Comput Methods Programs Biomed 91(1):55–81 8. De Silva LC, Morikawa C, Petra IM (2012) State of the art of smart homes. Eng Appl Artif Intell 25(7):1313–1321 9. Snoonian D (2003) Smart buildings. IEEE spectrum 40(8):18-23 10. Kupriyanovsky V, Alenkov V, Sokolov I, Zazhigalkin A, Klimov A, Stepanenko A, Sinyagov S, Namiot D (2017) Smart infrastructure, physical and information assets, smart cities, BIM, GIS, and IoT. Int J Open Inf Technol 5(10):55–86

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11. Ota K, Kumrai T, Dong M, Kishigami J, Guo M (2017) Smart infrastructure design for smart cities. IT Professional 19(5):42–49 12. McClellan S, Jimenez J, Koutitas G (2018) Smart cities. Applications, technologies, standards, and driving factors, 239 13. Al-Hader M, Rodzi A (2009) The smart city infrastructure development and monitoring. Theor Empirical Res Urban Manage 4(2 (11):87–94 14. Yin C, Xiong Z, Chen H, Wang J, Cooper D, David B (2015) A literature survey on smart cities. Sci China Inf Sci 58(10):1–18 15. Arcuri N, De Ruggiero M, Salvo F, Zinno R (2020) Automated valuation methods through the cost approach in a BIM and GIS integration framework for smart city appraisals. Sustainability 12(18):7546 16. De Ruggiero M, Forestiero G, Manganelli B, Salvo F (2017) Buildings energy performance in a market comparison approach. Buildings 7(1):16 17. Del Giudice V, Massimo DE, Salvo F, De Paola P, De Ruggiero M, Musolino, M (2020) Market price premium for green buildings: a review of empirical evidence. Case study. In: International symposium: new metropolitan perspectives, pp 1237–1247. Springer, Cham 18. Simonotti M (2006) Metodi di stima immobiliare. Dario Flaccovio 19. Lipscomb J, Gray J (1995) A connection between paired data analysis and regression analysis for estimating sales adjustments. J Real Estate Res 10(2):175–183 20. Morano P, Tajani F, Salvo F, De Ruggiero M (2019) Weight coefficients in the appraisal system approach. In: International conference on computational science and its applications, pp 3–12. Springer, Cham 21. Tajani F, Morano P, Salvo F, De Ruggiero M (2019) Property valuation: the market approach optimised by a weighted appraisal model. J Property Investment Finance 22. Isakson HR (2001) Using multiple regression analysis in real estate appraisal. Apprais J 69(4):424 23. Diamond PA, Hausman JA (1994) Contingent valuation: Is some number better than no number? J Econ Perspect 8(4):45–64

Development of a WebGIS Open Platform to Support Community Resilience Francesca Abastante and Francesco Fiermonte

Abstract The aim of this paper is to illustrate the construction process of a WebGIS platform aimed at supporting the planning of adaptation strategies for the municipality of Chiomonte (Italy). The WebGIS platform here illustrated is one of the results of two projects named Chiomonte_2025 and Chiomonte_SMART, promoted by the Public Administration (PA) of Chiomonte and the ImprenD’Oc association (visitchiomonte.it) and financed by Compagnia di San Paolo and Comitati Territoriali IREN. The projects aimed at identifying alternative territorial strategies considering a controversial decision-making process characterized by a high level of uncertainty and guided following a disruptive and divisive event: the realization of the New High Speed Train Line (NHSTL) connecting Turin (Italy) and Lion (France). The Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are recognized as being key players in the managing of complex and multidimensional decision-making processes since they are able to get the different stakeholders on the same page, visualize on the territory the different alternative strategies and considering both quantitative and qualitative data. The WebGIS platform developed goes in the direction of “sharing information” being conceived as a knowledge base that would provide the definition of alternative actions that may be conflictual. Future development of the work will provide the updating of the platform so to integrate Multicriteria Analyses (MCDA, Abastante et al. in Buildings 7(4):103, 2017; Fregonese et al. in Group Decis Negotiation 29(6):993–1019, 2020) useful to structure real-time decision processes, identify the most important decision criteria to guide the definition of operative projects, identify the impacts of each proposed action and disclose a priority ranking of the different projects. Keywords Geographic information system (GIS) · Decision-making processes · Community resilience · Web platform · One data

F. Abastante (B) · F. Fiermonte Politecnico di Torino, DIST, Turin, Italy e-mail: [email protected] F. Fiermonte e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_16

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1 Introduction Urban resilience refers to the ability of an urban system […] to maintain or rapidly return to desired functions in the face of a disturbance, to adapt to change, and to quickly transform systems that limit current or future adaptive capacity [24].

The concept of “spatial resilience” is increasingly used in the debate on innovation in models of management, care and maintenance of the social and natural environment and projects of transformation, regeneration, and development of the territory [1, 2]. As highlighted by Brunetta and Caldarice [10] the communities play a key role in the definition of the spatial resilience that can be declined through four types of systems’ capabilities: resource development (diversity), communication, institutional competence and social capital (sense of belonging to a community). In this sense, “spatial resilience” depends to the ability of a community (understood as citizens and institutions) of proposing initiatives able to “positively react to shocks or persistent adverse factors” [11]. The concept of “spatial resilience” can be framed into the well-known one of Circular Economy [16, 17, 22] since it is demonstrated how the CE increases socialecological resilience [30]. Several CE trends can increase resilience being able to implement the diversity of the stock, sharing resources, decentralise activities and improving the participation of the communities. Those concepts effectively allude to and evokes the change in approach deemed necessary to continue to ensure prospects for sustainability affecting the living environments of communities. However, when it comes to moving from the rhetorical dimensions of CE and resilience to the construction of projects (tools, solutions, actions), difficulties emerge especially in terms of decision-making processes [15]. The decision-making processes are often conflictual, characterized by the coexistence of multiple aspects and the presence of stakeholders who are the bearers of antithetical instances. Those characters make the sharing information process highly difficult [4, 20, 21, 27]. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are recognized as being key players against those tasks being able to create a bridge toward a share understanding among the stakeholders involved in the decision process [7] being able to integrate different subsystems and databases. The aim of the present paper is to illustrate the construction of a WebGIS platform [23, 28] to support to the planning of resilient action and adaptation strategies for the municipality of Chiomonte (Italy). The platform was realized in the framework of two large projects named Chiomonte_2025 and Chiomonte_SMART, promoted by the Public Administration (PA) of Chiomonte and the ImprenD’Oc association (visitchiomonte.it) and financed by Compagnia di San Paolo and Comitati Territoriali IREN. The general aim of the two projects is to depict operative projects able to revitalize the territory following a disruptive event namely the construction of the New High Speed Train Line (HSTL) connecting Turin to Lyon (transpadana.org).

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In particular, the DIST department of the Politecnico di Torino, to which the authors of this paper belong, has been called to participate in: – Verification of the relevance of area-specific activities proposed by ImprenD’Oc in cooperation with different academic and territorial stakeholders (fur further development please refer to the report [13, 14]); – Programming of a WebGIS platform containing available data related to 4 territorial development plans of Chiomonte and specific activities derived from previous studies conducted by ImprenD’Oc; – Conducting proactive analysis in view of a future sustainable development of the municipality of Chiomonte. This step of the research is still ongoing and can not be disclosed. In our opinion, the case study illustrated in the paper is a perfect example of a controverse decision-making process and a bottom-up response by a territory and a community that takes a resilient act to counter the effects of a potentially adverse event. The paper is organized as follows: next section provides an overall territorial framework describing both the Susa Valley and the municipality of Chiomonte. The projects Chiomonte_2025 and Chiomonte_SMART are here presented; Sect. 3 describes the needed step to construct the WebGIS platform while Sect. 4 concludes the paper by reporting some future developments of the research.

2 Framing the Case Study Territory In order to properly understand the significance of the work carried out by the Politecnico di Torino research group in the definition of a WebGIS platform, it is first necessary to frame the territorial reality of the Susa Valley (Italy) in which the municipality of Chiomonte is located.

2.1 The Susa Valley (Italy) The Susa Valley (Fig. 1) is an Alpine valley of about 100,000 inhabitants in 39 municipalities. It is located in the north-west part of the Piedmont Region (Italy) and insisting partly on Italian territory and on French territory. Many valleys on the Italian Alps are facing a radical change. The global economic crisis of 2008 has caused a necessary change in the habits of the population and in the conformation and conception of work. This has contributed to the exacerbation of migration flows towards the cities in search for new opportunities. The valleys of the Alps are therefore grappling with a progressive depopulation that has been going on for a decade [9]. A further element of complexity is linked to climate change and global warming. The economy of the valleys was in fact mainly driven by winter

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Fig. 1 Territorial frame. Source Own elaboration based on GIS data from transpadana.org (2021)

sports which, due to low snowfall, can be practiced only partially causing a lack of revenue. The Susa Valley perfectly reflects this socio-economic frame, showing a further element of complexity. It is in fact at the center of a national and international debate that has been going on for 30 years concerning the decision-making process of the New High Speed Train Line (HSTL) connecting Turin to Lyon. Despite the strategic relevance for the Mediterranean TEN-T Corridor, this railway project has become the most disruptive example of antagonism to major works in recent decades in Italy [6]. This is a case of a dispute to a major work derived from an “excess of decisionmaking” [8]: on the one hand, the project is considered fundamental for the economy; on the other, it is perceived as dangerous and invasive for the territory of the Susa Valley, as well as oversized and expensive. In this case, the excess of decision-making would seem to be determined by the inability of the promoters of the project to listen to the most controversial voices and thus define the general interest in front of public opinion (Fig. 2).

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Fig. 2 HSTL Italian section. Source Own elaboration from transpadana.org (2018)

In spite of the long debates in different official and unofficial venues, the construction of the HSTL is slowly proceeding under the guidance of TELT S.A.S (teltsas.com). The cross-border section of the line is completed as well as the construction of the geognostic tunnel aimed at exploring the mountain and located in the municipality of Chiomonte while feasibility studies are available for the national section and the Turin node. In conclusion sometimes this project appears as a reality, but sometimes this project appears as an unknown and it is stopped by political conflicts or territorial associations of citizens that are against the project and started bottom-up movements asking for a different development model able to defend their land. The fear of the 39 municipalities living in the Susa Valley is in fact that this project could destroy large portion of the territory having huge impacts on the ecosystems and communities. Against the planned projects of the HSTL, the Susa Valley is supported by financial incomes in terms of compensation measures of around 112 M of euros provided by a Law objective of 2011 [12]. Currently, the amount implemented by the CIPE resolutions is 98 M of euros of which 10 M have been already destined for the geognostic tunnel while the remain amount should be soon available to implement specific accompanying measures to the planning of the territory with particular reference to: – – – –

Environmental safety and requalification; Energy savings, renewable energy, hydroelectric energy; Support for tourist and productive agricultural activities; Developing tangible and intangible networks;

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– Recovery of the public building heritage with reference to the schools. 2.1.1

The Susa Valley Strategy

Considered the aforementioned complex, the Susa Valley is trying to run for cover and take advantage of the compensation money established by CIPE [12] to define new territorial identities by focusing on the cultural and natural heritage at their disposal. The Osservatorio Torino Lione (osservatorionuovalineatorinolione.it) aims at overcoming the widespread logic of using compensation as a mere financing source for local intervention in order to identify a shared strategy for the entire Susa Valley exploiting the realization of the HSTL as a driver for the launch of sustainable and integrated development processes. With this regard, the Osservatorio Torino Lione published the “Smart Susa Valley report” [25] which identify 5 main strategic axes: smart mobility; smart energy; smart environment; smart building; smart economy. Each axis is in turn declined into specific measures representing the strategic actions for the 39 municipalities involved (Fig. 3). The Smart Susa Valley report constitute the needed premise to understand the position and the point of view of Chiomonte in terms of territorial activities proposed by the association ImprenD’Oc [13, 14].

2.2 Chiomonte Chiomonte is one of the most critical and controversial municipalities of the Valley since it is a small but key town assigned as main construction site of the HSTL (telt-sas.com) following the construction of the geognostic tunnel. This has been

Fig. 3 Smart Susa valley main axes. Source Own elaboration from Osservatorio Torino-Lione [25]

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completed in 2017 to know the structure of the mountain through which the HSTL will pass, and it will be the Italian way of access to the construction site of the base tunnel. According to the evolution of HSTL works (which are still uncertain), Chiomonte will face the migration of a huge number of workers that will remain there for at least 10 years changing the community structure of this town. Chiomonte, as many other municipalities of the Alps, is facing also environmental, social and economic crises unrelated to the HSTL. Until 2008, Chiomonte was described as a “thriving tourist community and […] an ideal place for family tourism and vacationing” [14] but now it is showing a breakdown typical of local mountainous systems. The general situation of Chiomonte shows in fact 3 types of dysfunctions [15]: • Functional: it is evident in the progressive loss of importance of the fundamental socio-economic activities, marked by the dismissal of the old building containers and in bad structural conditions of the real estate patrimony. The public heritage of Chiomonte is in decline and many private homes owned by vacationers have been abandoned; • Relational: it is linked to the loss of importance of traditional forms of social aggregation to which corresponds, tendentially, a growing withdrawal of people from life in public space. The natural balance of Chiomonte is strongly negative and the people is aging making difficult to maintain the sense of community; • Environmental: which is manifested by the increasing difficulty of local organizations to control the natural environment and manage it as a resource for local development and quality of life. An example is constituted by the decrease of snowfall which requires a rethinking of sports activities once based on winter tourism. Given the situation, the PA of Chiomonte is worried that being the main construction site could lead to the definitive death of a territory already in crisis.

2.2.1

The Projects: Chiomonte_2025 and Chiomonte_SMART

In order to access CIPE funds and be able to implement territorial development activities capable of returning Chiomonte to the condition of a flourishing community, the municipality of Chiomonte started the project Chiomonte_2025 and Chiomonte_SMART with the financial support of the bank foundation Compagnia di San Paolo and the association Comitati Territoriali IREN and the scientific support of the Politecnico di Torino. The main aim of the two projects is to propose operative territorial actions able to revitalize the territory by declining the strategic measures contained in the Smart Susa Valley report [25] and considering the UN-Habitat Program (unhabitat.org), which defines directions according to which a territory must evolve to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century by aiming to achieve fundamental characteristics: productive, green, livable, safe, healthy, resilient and sustainable.

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Table 1 Strategic plans and socio-territorial sectors Sectors Strategic plans

Society

Environment

Economy

Development of the real-estate patrimony (PIRIPIC)

Health and security Social inclusion Social services

Decorum Safeguarding Requalification

Tourism attraction Cultural attraction Sport attraction Economic development

Sustainable energy and climate change (PAES-C) Agricultural improvement and viticulture recovery (PRAREVIC) Tourism and economic development (PISTE)

Hence, the main strategic activities identified in Chiomonte_2025 and Chiomonte_SMART are referred to 4 main plans, each of which should focus on specific sectors of socio-territorial interest (Table 1).

3 The GIS Platform To operationalize the strategic plans (Table 1), the projects Chiomonte_2025 and Chiomonte_SMART provide the construction of a WebGIS platform [1–3] able to collect all the available information about the Chiomonte territory and to be consulted via Web in an open-source philosophy [9]. It is important to underline that the platform can be also consulted locally on a standard infrastructure. Before releasing the WebGIS platform, it was in fact necessary to create the “client platform” understood as the entire information base both spatial and quantitative/qualitative. This platform can be consulted and modified only by people familiar with GIS tools and it is mainly used to integrate the data that will be published in the WebGIS platform after a careful check by the researchers involved. The data involved in the themes dealt with by the 4 strategic plans are multiple and extremely heterogeneous and therefore their consultation and management would be ineffective without an appropriate visualization of the territory and rationalization of the information. The heterogeneity and complexity of the data model developed in this research allows both the integration and the analysis of the data themselves and to derive new information by building new spatial models from the initial data with the possibility of laying the foundations for any analysis related to the transformation scenarios in relation to the aspects of real estate, energy, tourism, agronomic.

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In fact, the aim of the WebGIS platform is to create a shared base of discussion among the different stakeholders involved in a decision-making process related to the identification of possible development strategies for the territory. With this aim, the WebGIS platform integrates the following information related to the 4 strategic plans: – PIRIPIC with particular reference to the location of public and private buildings and specific information related to the dimensions and state of preservation; – PAES-C with particular reference to the “Medium Voltage” (MT) and “Low Voltage” (LV) electricity distribution networks located within the municipal territory; – PRAREVIC understood as the location, dimensions and characters of the vineyards; – PISTE understood as the location, dimensions and characters of the pedestrian and cycle paths and ski slopes. It is important to underline that in this paper we will report overall information about the construction of the WebGIS platform in order to deepener the information related to the PIRIPIC plan. The remaining 3 plans are in fact currently bound by secrecy about the information contained and, at the moment, can not be shared. The growing need for a continuous exchange of information, their updating and implementation, the containment of management costs and free access to databases are in currently widespread needs of citizens, professionals and PAs. In order to cope with these demands, the use of open-source solutions allows to get rid of the limits imposed by proprietary software (i.e., requiring a paid license) and to be more adherent to the possible implementation with databases that allow the analysis of multiple aspects [26]. In line with recent developments in data retrieval and processing, the platform has been realized using, where possible, free and/or open-source software and tools, consolidated and supported by communities widely present in the area [5, 26]. This approach has immediately allowed a “free access” to the platform (as well as maintainable over time) both in consultation and in the activities of “evolutionary maintenance”. The main software used to construct the platform are: QGIS (qgis.org): it is the most widespread open-source GIS software and it has been used in this research to construct the “client platform” including all the needed information in the attribute table to prepare the environment for the WebGIS interface. For archives and geographic databases, we made use of shapefiles and geopackages (geopackage.org); Libreoffice (libreoffice.org): it is an open-source office suite useful to support the writing process, preparation of documents and spreadsheets as well as for the formula editing. In the case of this research, it turned out to be fundamental due to the high compatibility with QGIS; XAMPP (apachefriends.org) is one of the multiple Apache distribution directories and one of the most popular PHP (Hypertext Preprocessor, php.net) language development environments. It allows an easy and intuitive construction of a Web

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service. As “scripting” languages dedicated to the development environment we made use of JavaScript (javascript.com), HTML (HyperText Markup Language, html.spec.whatwg.org) e PHP (php.org). In addition to the software part, great attention has been paid to the use of data and information that do not show constraints in the use such as the cartographic georeferenced background to be used as a basis for the visualization. The “ICE Aerial Shot 2009–2011 Orthophoto RGB”, simply called “Orthophoto 2010” represents an excellent compromise among quality, updating and loading speed. Moreover, it is available for free use through the Web Map Services (WMS) exposed by the Piedmont Region Administration (geoportale.piemonte.it). After having identified the proper software and cartographic background, it has been necessary to organize all the available data on filesystem a group of organized folders and subfolders, one for each of the 4 strategic projects (PIRIPIC, PAES-C, PRAREVIC, PISTE). Figure 4 shows the filesystem of the PIRIPIC project. The next step involved the realization of the QGIS projects. Given the need to show the situation of the 4 strategic scenarios for Chiomonte, it seemed appropriate to carry out 4 different QGIS projects: this choice also facilitated the publication of the single WebGIS services (Fig. 5). Fig. 4 Filesystem PIRIPIC project

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Fig. 5 Home page of the WEB platform

3.1 The PIRIPIC Strategic Scenario The PIRIPIC strategic scenario has been considered the most urgent and important by the Public Administration of Chiomonte becoming the pilot scenario useful to construct the overall WebGIS platform. The problems related to the poor condition of the buildings, the presence of multiple disused residential buildings, and the concern related to the accommodation of workers makes the disclosing of this scenario preparatory to the pursuit of the others. The acquiring of the numerous data useful for this scenario has been demanding and required a number of interactions with ImprenD’Oc and the PA of Chiomonte in order to properly catalogue 131 residential buildings and 7 public buildings (the kindergarten, the elementary school, a retirement home, the town hall, an art gallery and the bishopric). The visualization of the unused buildings on the territory through the WebGIS platform allows: (i) understanding the potentialities in terms of beds available in residential properties for the accommodation of workers who will work at the site of HSTL; (ii) having a complete picture of the buildings that could be destined for future tourists; (iii) understanding the state of conservation of the buildings both private and public in order to identify a priority ranking of the buildings to be requalified; (iv) knowing the location of public and ecclesiastical buildings of potential historical and touristic interest in order to include them in visitation routes. In the PIRIPIC WebGIS project we decided to also locate the parking lots, functional and strictly related to the strategic projects. Once created the cartographic geo-referenced background to be used as a basis for the visualization using the “Orthophoto 2010”, the research provided the identification and design of the interested buildings on a base map and the collection of the information available for each building using the LibreOffice spreasheed. The spreadsheet has been organized according to the structuring of functional data for a GIS: one row for each building (record) to which a unique code and an identification number (ID) have been assigned; one column for each character of the building (fields).

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Table 2 Information collected Information

Description

Information

Description

Building typology

Condominium, villa, townhouse, detached house

Accessibility for disabled

Yes/No

Location

Address

Heating system

Centralized, autonomous, pellet or wood boiler

Owner information

Name, surname, telephone and email address

Rooms

Number and sqm

Floors

Number

Bathrooms

Number

Available apartments in Number the building

Home furnishing

Yes/No

Dimension of each apartment

Sqm

Garden

Private/shared

Elevator

Yes/No

Parking

Yes/No

Cellar

Yes/No

Pictures

Images of the available apartments and of the building

Tv antenna and phone jack

Yes/No

Hot water

Yes/No

Kitchen

Yes/No

Category

A, A1, A2, A2, B, C

For each building, together with ImprenD’Oc, a number of information has been collected (Table 2). The information “category” refers to the current state of preservation of the buildings/apartments and to the necessary adaptation works. It is a composite indicator provided by ImprenD’Oc basing on the following information: Result of the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC); Certificate of ownership; Cadastral survey; Planimetry; Year of renovation; Conformity of the hydraulic system; Compliance of electrical system. The identified categories are 3: • A: the apartment is immediately available without any adaptation or restoration work. This category provides the following 3 sub-categories; – A1: the apartment is immediately available but requires quick replacement of items that do not preclude the safety or use of the apartment; – A2: the apartment is available in 15 days maximum since it needs for replacement of items that preclude the safety; – A3: the apartment is available in 60 days maximum since fundamental items are missing; • B: the apartment is available in 6 months maximum. In this case plant adjustments are required;

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Fig. 6 Excerpt of the attribute table

• C: it is not possible to estimate the time needed to carry out the adaptation works. The spreadsheet containing all the aforementioned information has been used to construct the attribute table (Fig. 6) which was then related/joined to the polygonal geometries representing the buildings mapped. This step has been carried out with QGIS representing the working project. After collecting all the data and preparing the attribute table, the next step involved the geolocation of the buildings (Fig. 7). Each building was then redrawn on the basis of the Orthophoto 2010 and geometrically validated with respect to the geographical reference base in the coordinate system of the Piedmont Region (WGS1984, Spindle 32 N, EPSG 32,632). Accordingly, it is possible to question the platform by selecting each single building and visualizing the information available.

3.2 The WebGIS The next step involved the publication of the QGIS platform via web so to be consulted also by non-GIS experts through a dynamic and interactive map that each interested user can explore by a web browser.

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Fig. 7 Interface of QGIS and attribute table

This has made be possible thanks to the QGIS plugin called qgis2web (plugins.qgis.org/plugins/qgis2web) that allowed inserting all the information available in a thematic portal accessible by the web (Fig. 8). The qgis2web plugin is a QGIS add-on module, which allows the publication and sharing of geospatial data, with customizable maps with respect to the various layers produced, and exportable in HTML format. In this way it can also be integrated into a web page. Thanks to the qgis2web plugin, it is possible to select the analysis tools that the user can perform on the map thus giving life to the WebGIS service. Currently, the

Fig. 8 PIRIPIC WebGIS interface

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analysis tools available for the WebGIS platform of Chiomonte are: zoom in/out; identify feature; calculate distance; map overlay; layer browser; print. As it is showed in Fig. 8, a colored legend helps the users in filtering the information available. Each building has been in fact themed to allow a quick understanding and querying of the tool basing on the building typology, building category, or selecting the public buildings. To improve the communication of the WebGIS platform, for each geometry a popup management system lets the user to click on the mapped features getting a brief description of the building selected (Fig. 9). Therefore, each popup contains the image of the building (if available) the address, the type of building, the number of apartments available, the maximum and minimum number of beds, the availability of parking and the category of the building. The popup has been considered very useful from the PA of Chiomonte and ImprenD’Oc since it allows a quick and immediate view of the most important characters of each building supporting the discussion around the planning actions and speeding up the decision-making process. Fig. 9 Popup example

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Moreover, each popup contains a link to a PDF sheet reporting all the available information about the building and the apartments.

3.3 The Building and Apartment Sheets The PDF sheets, one for each building, are accessible directly from the popups by clicking on the link “Click here to visualize the complete sheet”. It is important to underline that the information contained in the building sheet are identical to the one of the popup. However, the building sheets can be downloaded and printed constituting a resume of the main characters of the building as a whole and containing a map excerpt as well as an external image of the building (Fig. 10). At the bottom of the building sheet, more links are showed, one for each available apartment inside the building. Each link allows opening an apartment sheet containing detailed information for the apartment selected. The construction of the apartment sheets has been time consuming requiring multiple interactions with the PA of Chiomonte and ImprenD’Oc in order to decide the amount and nature of the information to be inserted. Moreover, due to privacy constrictions it was not possible to report in the free available sheets the overall information collected. Since some information can not publicly display (i.e., data about the owner and images of the interior of the houses), two different versions of the apartment sheets have been provided, one for the public exposure through the WebGIS platform and the other available to system administrators, the working group and selected users through a login and password system. Analogously to the building sheets, the apartment sheets can be downloaded and printed (Fig. 11). As it is possible to see from Fig. 11, the complete apartment sheet contains all the available information. Due to privacy constriction, the sensible information has been hidden in the figure. Both buildings and apartment sheets allow the PA of Chiomonte to have a detailed catalog of the accommodations available to future workers and tourists and consequently a useful information base for the determination of intervention strategies.

4 Conclusions and Future Developments This paper shows the construction of a WebGIS open platform useful to collect multiple qualitative and quantitative information about the specific territory of Chiomonte (Italy). It is important to underline that, although the strong effort, we have been able to pursue an open philosophy in terms of software involved but not in terms of data. In fact, due to the social nature of the Chiomonte_2025 and

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Fig. 10 Building sheet example

Chiomonte_SMART projects, the majority of the data were related to personal information of people and therefore the work presented cannot be fully considered in the open data research strand [19]. The WebGIS platform goes in the direction of “sharing information” and supporting complex decision-making processes being conceived as a knowledge base that would provide the definition of alternative actions that may be conflictual. It

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Fig. 11 Apartment sheet example (information that cannot be disseminated has been marked with ***)

could be useful to deeply discuss about future development scenarios for Chiomonte marked by a significant degree of uncertainty with respect to possible prospects for innovation. The WebGIS platform allows having a complete panorama of the territory immediately consultable online by each stakeholder that will be involved in the process. Accordingly, the concept of resilience is in this research used to evoke the effort required to address the complexity and multidimensionality of the issues that mark the

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lives of communities in territories strongly characterized by degenerative dynamics and for which regeneration prospects must be identified so to interrupt the neglect spiral exacerbated by an adverse event [15]. The future development of the work will provide the adaptation of the platform to accommodate the remaining 3 development scenarios: PAES-C, PRAREVIC and PISTE. The same logics and structure explained in this paper in relation to the PIRIPIC scenario will be applied for the others. Moreover, the platform will be updated in order to consider the possibility of constructing new spatial models starting from the available data and to conduct analysis and assessments. In this perspective, the research will provide the integration of multicriteria analyses (MCDA, [4]) useful to structure real-time decision processes, identify the most important decision criteria able to guide the definition of operative projects, identify the impacts of each proposed action and disclose a priority ranking of the different projects. Acknowledgements The author of this paper wish to acknowledge the contribution of a number of colleagues with particular reference to Luigi La Riccia that strongly contributed to the realization of the entire platform. Moreover, we would like to thank the Public Administration of Chiomonte, the ImprenD’Oc association, Compagnia di San Paolo and Comitati Territoriali IREN.

References 1. Abastante F, Lami IM, La Riccia L, Gaballo M (2020) Supporting resilient Urban planning through walkability assessment. Sustainability 12(19):8131 2. Abastante F, Pensa S, Masala E (2020) The process of sharing information in a sustainable development perspective: a web visual tool. In: Values and functions for future cities. Springer, Cham, pp 339–350 3. Abastante F, Lami IM, Lombardi P, Toniolo J (2019) District energy choices: more than a monetary problem. A SDSS approach to define urban energy scenarios. Valori e Valutazioni (22) 4. Abastante F, Lami IM, Lombardi P (2017) An integrated participative spatial decision support system for smart energy urban scenarios: a financial and economic approach. Buildings 7(4):103 5. Abastante F, Bottero M, Greco S, Lami IM (2012) A dominance-based rough set approach model for selecting the location for a municipal solid waste plant. Geoingegneria ambientale e mineraria 3(137):43–54 6. Algostino A (2008) L’Osservatorio per il collegamento ferroviario Torino-Lione come case study sulla democrazia e sul dissenso. L’Osservatorio per il collegamento ferroviario TorinoLione come case study sulla democrazia e sul dissenso 1000–1023 7. Andrienko G, Andrienko N, Jankowski P, Keim D, Kraak MJ, MacEachren AM et al (2007) Geovisual analytics for spatial decision support: setting the research agenda. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 21(8):839–857 8. Bobbio L, Dansero E (2008) La TAV e la valle di Susa. Geografie in competizione. Umberto Allemandi, pp 1–78 9. Bonato L (2021) Ritualità d’alta quota, tra politiche culturali e sostenibilità. EtnoAntropologia 8(2):51–70 10. Brunetta G, Caldarice O (2020) Spatial resilience in planning: meanings, challenges, and perspectives for Urban transition. Sustain Cities Commun 628–640

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When Green Turns into Value Manuela De Ruggiero, Francesca Salvo, Daniela Tavano, and Raffaele Zinno

Abstract The issues of environment, climate change, use of non-renewable resources and energy needs, have become central both at the international level and in the everyday life of people aware of sustainability, well-being and energy efficiency. In this perspective, the philosophy of Green Building is becoming increasingly important in the building sector; it’s the approach to low environmental impact of construction oriented to improving people’s health and quality of life, respecting the environment. The benefits of adopting these protocols are different: environmental, economic and social ones. Thinking of “green” buildings means minimizing pollutant emissions and the use of unsustainable resources for buildings that, to date, generate almost 40% of carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, it must be stressed that the use of green technologies has a positive impact on economy: on the one hand on the consumption and the costs of tenants, on the other on the employments, with the creation of new jobs. Finally, with regard to the social advantages, it is now acclaimed that those who live and/or work in buildings classified as “green” tend to show a higher level of productivity, mood stability and regularity of biorhythms. Having examined the contribution that green buildings can offer to the objectives of the 2030 Agenda, and once recalled the state of the art with reference to the methods of appraising the value of green buildings, this contribution is intended to think about the possibility of “green turning into value”, helping to increase the appreciation of private real estate users for this kind of properties. In this regard, we propose a model of contingent evaluation able to express the green buildings parameters in terms of economic value. In particular, the paper is the first step of a wider research, so that it reports the work premises, examining the contribution of green buildings in the 2030 M. De Ruggiero (B) · F. Salvo · D. Tavano · R. Zinno Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Rende, CS, Italy e-mail: [email protected] F. Salvo e-mail: [email protected] D. Tavano e-mail: [email protected] R. Zinno e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_17

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Agenda (Sect. 1), the state of art (Sect. 2), the green building certifications (Sect. 3), and the methodological approach (Sect. 4), up to the definition of the considered parameters and the questionnaire schedule. Future research and implications are described in Sect. 5. Keywords Sustainability · Green buildings · LEED certification · Real estate appraisal · Contingent valuation

1 Green Buildings in the Agenda 2030 Perspective Scientific communities unanimously recognize that sustainability is not only a purely environmental issue. Civil society, the business world, National Governments, administrations and public opinion are now fully aware of the need to adopt an integrated approach and concrete measures aimed at an important change of the socio-economic paradigm in dealing with the numerous and complex environmental and institutional challenges. With the aim to solve the wide range of issues concerning global economic, social and environmental development, the United Nations Organization has developed the so-called Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), 17 objectives articulated in 169 targets (and over 240 indicators) to be achieved by 2030, representing far-reaching issues such as poverty, hunger, health, education, climate change, gender equality, water, energy, urbanization. The building sector can significantly contribute to the achievement of the objectives set by the 2030 Agenda, aiming at the construction of the so-called green buildings, buildings designed for a greater respect for environment, but at the same time intended for the livability needs of the inhabitants. A green building is defined as a building that, from the design phases first, to the executive and construction ones then, is designed to be performing and sustainable, both for the well-being of those who live there, and for the ecological footprint. In more general terms, a green building includes protocols for sustainability, whose goal, both in the short and long term, is not only to measure the ecological impact of a building, but also to significantly reduce it during its entire life cycle. A green building is the result of very careful design choices, a very scrupulous selection of materials and technologies, a detailed study about the aspect related to the energy absorption of buildings. In this sense, therefore, the building is no longer considered a simple container, but rather a holistic organism in complete relationship both with those who live in it and with the surrounding environment, in which it must integrate as much as possible without disfiguring, and reducing to minimum its polluting emissions. This concept of absolute respect that underlies this new way of building brings with it a more cautious approach towards the exploitation of resources, but also concrete prospects for savings: buildings generated by a virtuous cycle are in fact less

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expensive for their nature, because they involve a reduction in waste, an optimization of activities and an increasingly marked recycling of elements and materials. The variables that can be evaluated in the context of building sustainability are numerous: location and sustainability of the site, materials used and their polluting impact, consumption of resources, containment of energy consumption, protection of air quality inside the building, recovery of materials and re-entry into the production cycle, reduction of gas and noise emissions. The building sector, therefore, is not olnly a powerful engine of the global economy, but it is also a crucial sector for achieving many of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, as highlighted by the Italian Green Building Council. Green buildings can help ensure a healthy life and promote the wellbeing of all at all ages (Goal 3—Health and Wellbeing). There is ample evidence that the way a building is designed can affect the health and well-being of its occupants. There is a direct connection between unhealthy indoor environments and negative impacts on human health, as better lighting, air quality and greenery have shown a positive impact on health and well-being. Furthermore, reducing emissions from buildings, particularly in cities, can reduce pollution and improve air quality, benefiting the health of all city dwellers. Efficient green buildings, be they commercial office buildings or homes, can ensure significant energy savings (Goal 7—Clean and affordable energy). Green buildings use renewable energy, which can be cheaper than that derived from fossil fuels. Renewable energy also has the added advantage of not producing carbon emissions, limiting the impact on the planet. As the demand for green building grows globally, so the workforce required to build them does, and this is another goal where green building can contribute significantly (Goal 8—Jobs and economic growth). The life cycle of a green building—from conception to construction, management and even renovation—impacts a wide range of people, and provides many opportunities for inclusive work. Green buildings must be designed in such a way as to ensure that they are resistant and adaptable to cope with a changing global climate, necessarily based on the adoption of innovative methodologies, techniques and materials to be used in the construction of the future infrastructures (Goal 9—Industry, innovation and infrastructure). Furthermore, buildings represent the basic elements of cities and green buildings are fundamental for long-term sustainability. Whether they are homes, offices, schools, shops or green spaces, the built environment contributes to the establishment of communities, which must be socially, environmentally and economically sustainable to ensure a high quality of life for all (Goal 11—Sustainable cities and communities). Construction still has an important role to play in preventing waste through reduction, recycling and reuse, all principles of the circular economy in which resources are not wasted (Goal 12—Responsible consumption and production), so as in the reduction of emissions into the atmosphere, through energy efficiency measures (Goal 13—Fight against climate change).

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Finally, the materials used in the building sector are fundamental to determine its sustainability, and therefore the construction industry and its supply chains have an important role to play in the use of responsibly sourced materials, in reducing water consumption. and in safeguarding biodiversity in the built spaces (Goal 15—Life on earth). It should not be forgotten that the construction industry requires a collaborative approach of the various parties involved in the construction process, favoring the global partnership for sustainable development (Goal 17—Partnership for the objectives). It is therefore clear the central role that the building sector can play in pursuing the sustainable development goals on several fronts, contributing more specifically to the creation of a sustainable and efficient built environment.

2 Green Buildings Certification It should be remembered that a building can only be defined as green if it is certified by an independent third party. There are building design and certification protocols, such as the British one (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method— BREEAM), the American LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design), the ITACA Protocol (defined by the Institute for Innovation and Procurement Transparency and Environmental Compatibility—Italy), so that in every national context a specific protocol can be examined [10]. Each of these systems follows methodologies and requirements that are constantly evolving, but which universally refer to the following areas: – site sustainability: environmental and historical protection and context development; – efficient water management: protection and reuse of the water resource; – energy and atmosphere: consumption rationalization and energy sources production; – materials and resources: preferential use of eco-sustainable, recyclable and local materials and practices; – quality of the internal environments: optimization of the physical and psychological well-being inside the buildings; – innovation in design: rationalization and innovation of design, construction, management and maintenance activities. The certification objectives are multiple but substantially concern the definition of the concept of green building, establishing a common measurement standard and the promotion of integrated design practices aimed at transforming the building market, increasing awareness of the benefits that the green construction, generating profit within a global ecological vision [11]. The main advantages of a green building include [18, 21]:

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– a greater respect for the planet, since a more sustainable building fits better not only in the natural context that surrounds it, but also in the urban one without causing damage: a green building is based on harmony with natural elements such as air, water, sun and soil. – a concrete economic saving for the inhabitants. An eco-sustainable house is, by its nature, less energy-intensive and this means that the energy it requires is much lower than that of a traditional building. The use of new generation installments and renewable technologies allows for a fluid harmonization of initial investments in a relatively short time, guaranteeing concrete savings on consumption and increased living well-being. – an increased commercial value, easily spendable even in the long term. Green buildings are considered increasingly attractive in the real estate market, thanks to the high living comfort and the excellent energy efficiency. It is precisely on this last aspect that this paper intends to discuss, examining criteria and appraisal methods useful for understanding the contribution that the various real estate variables related to the certification macro-areas make on the market value of green properties, through market simulation techniques (Contingent Valuation). In particular, referring to the four LEED classification levels, the paper intends to examine the appreciation of the real estate users for each of the examined aspects (hedonic prices), with the ultimate aim of comparing the value of green properties with that of traditional ones, demonstrating that investing in green can produce important benefits, including monetary ones.

3 Green Buildings Valuation Approaches Alongside the regulatory aspects, it is clear that at a global level the commitment made in the private building sector is growing in the perspective of energy efficiency of buildings, also thanks to the economic incentives offered by national governments [2]. The green construction market is growing sharply, as reported by a recent US survey of Research and Markets published in the Environmental Leader: worldwide it is expected to reach a value of 187.4 billion dollars by 2027 with an annual growth rate of 8.6%. A scenario also confirmed by the World Green Building Council, according to which infrastructure and buildings will aim to halve carbon emissions by 40% by 2030, and 100% by 2050. Despite this trend, the financial implications of the transition to a greener real estate market are not yet clear. The existing literature on the financial implications of green certification generally indicates a positive relationship between environmental certification and financial results on the market. Many studies document significant and positive effects on rents and sales prices as a result of the environmental certification of buildings compared

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to traditional ones [6, 9, 13, 14] and, above all, these results seem to demonstrate that green buildings have not been significantly affected in the past by the recession of the real estate markets [7]. For investors, it is important to understand the value and risk implications of increased focus on green buildings, but methodological approaches have to be clearly defined. A first possibility is to assess whether the sustainability measures on real estate can bring economic benefits in terms of savings, and how these benefits may affect the market value of real estate, even in relation to the increased intervention costs. The methodologies recalled are those of the Cost approach and the Income approach [8, 20]. The cost approach is normally used in order to appraise the intervention costs intended to make a building green, while the Income Approach is used in order to build the cash flow of benefits and cost, so that to evaluate the net present value. With this aim, Information Technologies could be particularly useful, contributing to make green buildings also smart ones [1, 12, 17]. Another approach is to investigate the possible benefits in relation to the increase in real estate value or the increase in rents, in relation to those of similar properties, but built according to traditional methodologies. This approach requires the use of market-oriented methodologies, and this implies the detection of real estate sales data useful to make the comparison [4, 5, 13]. It means the appraisal of the hedonic prices of all real estate features, needing to use methods as the Hedonic Price Method (HPM) and the Appraisal System Model (ASM) or equations specifically prepared, based on the apprasial postulates, to be used in the adjustments table in sales adjustment grid (MCA). Finally, if data are not available, or if it is intended to investigate directly the appreciation of the benefits in terms of the psycho-physical well-being of the occupants and workers’ productivity, it’s possible to use market simulation methods by measuring the willingness to pay or to accept by real estate users, through the Contingent Valuation Method [3, 16, 19], an approach widely used in environmental cost–benefit analysis.

4 Contingent Valuation for Green Buildings Contingent Valuation is a valuation method useful for assets without market, based on the recognition of preferences directly expressed by users of the interested sector. The theoretical principle is the possibility of quantitatively measuring the variations in the compensatory surplus underlying the demand curve of the asset under assessment, that is the measure of the Willingness to Pay (WTP) of a certain population to obtain the supply of the assets being valued. The practical technique consists in the creation of a hypothetical market in which the asset probably falls, and in the selection of a statistically meaningful sample that represents the population potentially interested in the good. Within this market, a variation in the supply of the asset is assumed and direct interview with each of the sample members ask the willingness to pay a certain

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amount of money to finance the improvement described in the hypothetical scenario (vice versa, you can also ask for the willingness to pay to avoid some worsening or, still willing to accept the worsening itself). The theoretical assumption on which the method is based therefore assumes that the sum that the consumer will agree to pay (individual WTP) is a measure of the well-being provided by the increase in the supply hypotized in the proposed scenario, consistent with the axioms of consumer balance and maximization of utility. The CV method is a widely used nonmarket valuation method, especially in the areas of environmental cost—benefit analysis, environmental impact assessment, environmental economics, environmental resources, infrastructural projects [15]. More generally, it can be used in order to appraise use values and not use values, i.e. the total economic value, when quality features are relevant, and their monetary valuation is required. In particular, the design includes the following steps: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h)

definition of the reference population and of the survey units specification of the variables to be collected design and verification of the questionnaire choice of the questionnaire administration technique design of the sampling plan definition of the treatment of non-responses and response errors definition of the estimation procedures definition of the procedures for assessing the reliability of the estimates produced.

For the implementation of the contingent valuation, the collection of data by the interviews technique is preliminary, once it has been prepared a questionnaire containing information about the conditions of the interview (date, time, day of the week, weather conditions), data of the interviewee (age, sex, composition of the family, title of study, employment, annual net income), habits related to the use of the asset, hypothetical willingness to pay and any questions-filter to weigh the reliability of the data collected (degree of collaboration and understanding by the interviewee).

4.1 Green Buildings Parameters and the Questionnaire According to this approach, and in the purpose of this research, firstly green building parameters have to be defined. We have formulated a 5 × 3 matrix of green building parameters (Fig. 1), referring, albeit in a simplified manner, to the LEED protocol for certification (because of certification data availability). The top hierarchy of green building parameters is divided into five groups: location sustainability, efficient water management, energy and atmosphere, materials and resources, indoor quality, design and innovation. Each group contains three relevant building characteristics, which will be put forward in the questionnaires.

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Fig. 1 Green building parameters

For location sustainability, quality, accessibility and transport systems and services to citizens are considered. With regard to water management, consideration shall be given to the presence of rainwater collection systems, devices for the control and reduction of water and systems for the treatment and reuse of grey water. With reference to the issue of energy and emissions into the atmosphere, the systems of energy production from renewable sources, the use of high energy performance installations and the presence of thermal insulation systems are evaluated. Attention is paid to materials and resources, considering the use of local materials, or eco-sustainable ones and the presence of an organized waste management systems. Finally, indoor quality is considered through the parameters of health, comfort and safety. Once the parameters have been defined, the questionnaire has been prepared. It consists of two parts, namely, the background information of the interviewees and the CVM analysis of the green building parameters. In the first part, information about respondents background are asked: sex, age, qualification, occupation, monthly income, type of building residence, level appreciation or green parameters. In the second part, interviewees were asked about to specify the willingness to pay according to different conditions of the parameters. The questionnaire is accompanied by an informative part, useful to make the interviewees understand what a green building is, and what benefits it can bring to individual residents, and more generally to the community. Since not all people are familiar with market price, a hypothetical base price is provided as a datum (the unit price for an ordinary and traditional building) and then percentage variations on the base value are requested using the iterative game technique, by randomly extracting a value from an increasing set of predetermined amounts and changing the offer within an appropriately defined range.

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Fig. 2 Questionnaire

For the purpose of this research, the questionnaire proposes a series of values from which to choose the personal appreciation in reference to the different parameters of a green building. In particular, the parameters are proposed through a nominal scale (null, low, medium, high, very high), which in the analysis phase will be converted to a cardinal scale (null = 0, low = 1, medium = 2, high = 3, very high = 4). Figure 2 shows the questionnaire (Fig. 3).

5 Future Implications and Conclusions The need to mediate environmental demands and the connected economic sustainability, obviously requires an appraisal analysis that, through the quantification of economic parameters, is able to demonstrate the economic value of a building approach based on the preservation of eco-systemic functions and ecological balance. Up to this point, the study has led to the definition of the questionnaire and to the preparation of the sampling plan. In the following, interviews will be conducted in

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Fig. 3 Questionnaire green building parameter

Italian real estate market sector and they will be carried out directly by the members of the research group after an adequate sampling plan. The collected data will enable the main characteristics of demand to be defined through an appropriate statistical analysis. The demand curve will then be estimated by adjusting the aggregate frequencies of the respondents to the corresponding willingness to pay, leading to the appraising of the increased percentage value of a green building through the integral of the truncated demand function between zero and the average frequency. The various green parameters will therefore be investigated, assessing the contribution that each characteristic makes to the overall percentage; for this purpose, a multiple regression analysis will be used, intended to regress the willingness to pay with the scores awarded by each visitor. The study will allow us to strengthen the awareness that intangible resources, which cannot be quantitatively measured, have an intrinsic value. It will underline that the construction of green buildings involves not only the building sector but more generally the well-being of people living inside and communities in general. We will thus be able to demonstrate that “investing in green” is not only necessary for the well-being of the planet and people, but also convenient from an economic perspective, directing the building sector towards more conscious, more efficient, more careful choices, and certainly more advantageous for everyone.

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References 1. Arcuri N, De Ruggiero M, Salvo F, Zinno R (2020) Automated valuation methods through the cost approach in a BIM and GIS integration framework for smart city appraisals. Sustainability 12(18):7546 2. Artese S, De Ruggiero M, Salvo F, Zinno R (2021) Economic convenience judgments among seismic risk mitigation measures and regulatory and fiscal provisions: the Italian case. Sustainability 13(6):3269 3. Chan E, Yiu CY, Baldwin A, Lee G (2009) Value of buildings with design features for healthy living: a contingent valuation approach. Facilities 4. Del Giudice V, Massimo DE, Salvo F, De Paola P, De Ruggiero M, Musolino M (2020) Market price premium for green buildings: a review of empirical evidence. Case study. In: International symposium: new metropolitan perspectives. Springer, Cham, pp 1237–1247 5. De Ruggiero M, Forestiero G, Manganelli B, Salvo F (2017) Buildings energy performance in a market comparison approach. Buildings 7(1):16 6. Eichholtz PMA, Kok N, Quigley JM (2010) Doing well by doing good: green office buildings. Am Econ Rev 100:2494–2511 7. Eichholtz PMA, Kok N, Quigley JM (2013) The economics of green building. Rev Econ Stat 95(1):50–63 8. Entrop AG, Brouwers HJH, Reinders AHME (2010) Evaluation of energy performance indicators and financial aspects of energy saving techniques in residential real estate. Energy Build 42(5):618–629 9. Fuerst F, McAllister P (2011a) Green noise or green value? Measuring the effects of environmental certification on office values. Real Estate Econ 39:45–69 10. Gaballo M, Mecca B, Abastante F (2021) Adaptive reuse and sustainability protocols in Italy: relationship with circular economy. Sustainability 13. ISSN 2071-1050 11. Green Builidng Council (2009) LEED for neighborhood development reference Guide. USGBC 12. Lu Y, Wu Z, Chang R, Li Y (2017) Building information modeling (BIM) for green buildings: a critical review and future directions. Autom Constr 83:134–148 13. Mangialardo A, Micelli E, Saccani F (2019) Does sustainability affect real estate market values? Empirical evidence from the office buildings market in Milan (Italy). Sustainability 11(1):12 14. Miller N, Spivey J, Florance A (2008) Does green pay off? J Real Estate Portf Manage 14:385– 400 15. Mitchell RC, Carson RT (1989) Using surveys to value public goods: the contingent valuation method. Resource for the Future, Washington, DC 16. Pinzón Botero MV, Villota Ortiz SB (2019) The potential market for sustainable housing under the contingent valuation method. City of Palmira. Cuadernos de Administración (Universidad del Valle) 35(65):45–59 17. Raouf AM, Al-Ghamdi SG (2019) Building information modelling and green buildings: challenges and opportunities. Archit Eng Design Manage 15(1):1–28 18. Ries R, Bilec MM, Gokhan NM, Needy KL (2006) The economic benefits of green buildings: a comprehensive case study. Eng Econ 51(3):259–295 19. Robinson S, Simons R, Lee E, Kern A (2016) Demand for green buildings: office tenants’ stated willingness-to-pay for green features. J Real Estate Res 38(3):423–452 20. Salvo F, Piro P, Nigro G, De Ruggiero M (2017) Economic appraisal model of green roofs in residential buildings. Valori e Valutazioni (18) 21. Zhang L, Wu J, Liu H (2018) Turning green into gold: a review on the economics of green buildings. J Clean Prod 172:2234–2245

Smart Redevelopment of Existing Buildings. Use of BIM in Economic Value Judgments Francesca Salvo, Manuela De Ruggiero, and Daniela Tavano

Abstract Industry 4.0, digitalization, smart building, virtual reality: these are terms that are also entering into the common use of a traditional sector such as that of real estate, a sector that today is at the centre of a revolution of approaches, methods, and processes. There is a change in the way of understanding the building that goes from being a simple shell to an advanced technological object. The advantages of living in a smart home compared to a traditional home are clearly numerous both from an economic point of view and from a psychophysical point of view but the real challenge, Nowadays, it is to be able to redevelop in a smart key existing buildings or belonging to the historical real estate. The topic of smart building becomes more complex when we talk about existing buildings because the constraints of intervention are many and therefore the decision margins to promote redevelopment actions are significantly reduced. With a view to redesigning existing buildings to make them economically viable, the BIM technology is a particularly effective tool, embracing a philosophy that bears witness to the concept of digitalization of the built environment, Today, the foundation of innovation in the construction industry. The estimation of the costs to be incurred for different improvement scenarios can be conducted through the BIM automatically. This makes it possible to simplify the analysis of economic feasibility in the processes of transformation of a property by orienting more effectively the identification of the best use of the property. Keywords Industry 4.0 · Building information modeling · Costs · Highest and best use · BIM dimensions

F. Salvo · M. De Ruggiero · D. Tavano (B) Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Rende (CS), Italy e-mail: [email protected] F. Salvo e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_18

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1 Introduction The digital evolution that is involving the whole world has led to a profound change in the way of living and before that in the way of conceiving buildings. It is now common use when referring to a modern home, to think of the smart home. This type of home uses an integrated home automation system with the aim of improving and optimizing the level of safety and comfort of those who live there as well as the efficiency of the house itself. In essence, it is a dwelling equipped with technologies called Internet of Things (IoT). These technologies allow you to change the status of objects and systems through the remote control performed by the owners that can take place through special apps installed on tablets, Pcs, or smartphones or thanks to voice assistants of Google and Amazon help, for example. In essence, therefore, the main components of a smart home are a centralized system connected to peripheral devices that communicate with each other wirelessly; motion sensors connected to doors and windows; specific cameras; app for remote and smart speaker device management. Among the advantages of having a smart and connected home, the first place is energy saving, which turns into an economic advantage. The automatic and customized control of the operation of lights, appliances, air conditioners, radiators and other, according to your habits and external environmental conditions, allows you to avoid waste, using the various devices only in case of real need. Smart home also means monitoring consumption in a timely manner, keeping the energy bill under control. The second advantage is comfort. Automating the lighting and adjustment of lights, shutters, heating, and refrigeration relieves the user from having to remember. As an alternative to automation, you can keep human control, but relying on voice commands, much more immediate and convenient than manual ones. If, for example, you are in smart working mode, you can use the appropriate smart speakers to turn on or off the lights, depending on the need, continuing to work comfortably seated. There is also the possibility of remote control of many domestic functions, which adds further convenience and convenience. Think, for example, the activation of air conditioning systems or some appliances, executable for example from the office or your car while you are traveling. Finally, safety. The integration of traditional alarm systems with an intelligent and connected system significantly increases the degree of reliability, allowing the owner of the apartment to keep it under control even when it is located very far away. The advantages of living in a smart home compared to a traditional home are clearly numerous both from an economic point of view and from a health point of view. The value of the property grows thanks to the certainty of better energy performance, especially if the “smartization” of the systems, which has a conscious control of consumption, are combined with interventions aimed at increasing the energy efficiency of the building (a higher value of the property is estimated between 7 and 11% more than traditional buildings); better management of the systems optimizes the environments, which in turn generates more well-being and fewer health problems both at home and at work; the comfort is greater than a traditional house or building; if equipped with integrated video surveillance are safer buildings.

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Undoubtedly, achieving high standards and quality standards is now a practice in new buildings, while there is still much to be done on existing buildings. In the light of the advantages observed so far, it would be interesting to be able to redevelop in a smart key an existing building or even historical. Without doubt, the theme of Smart Building becomes more complex when we talk about existing buildings because it has to do with multiple constraints of intervention and therefore the decision margins for the lowering of energy consumption, for example, or for the smartization of the building are lower when compared to a new artifact. The difficulties in this area cannot, however, be overlooked and are necessarily to be addressed, as in Italy there is many existing buildings to be redeveloped, also for the increasingly clear direction towards policies of reduction of land consumption and to try to remedy the physiological emptying of historic centres. Most of these buildings were built in years prior to the first law that introduced the theme of energy saving. In addition, many of them are in seismic risk areas and therefore also have the issue of safety. The interventions aimed at introducing the smart component in the building, aimed at energy efficiency, or even aimed at adapting and improving the structure for seismic purposes, contribute to its economic enhancement. The redesign of existing buildings according to their economic value finds in the BIM (Building Information Modelling) a valid ally. Building Information Modelling is the latest phase of a revolutionary process that over the last thirty years has profoundly transformed the world of design in the construction sector in all its different disciplines: architecture and engineering design, mechanical/electrical/plumbing engineering, operation and maintenance, cost, and safety, etc. [1]. It is well known that the realization of any real estate improvement/investment involves, at a preventive stage, an analysis aimed at assessing its economic convenience. In fact, the economic commitment to a building work plays an important role in the operational design. It would be equally important to be able to estimate in real time multiple improvement hypotheses related to different architectural solutions, choices of materials or different smart installations, for example. The typically unidirectional workflow between design (architectural, structural, plant engineering) and computation can make the definition of this estimate extremely laborious, requiring intervening several times on the estimate made with the consequence of an increase in costs, in the time spent and in the possibility of making mistakes. The use of BIM technology in the construction sector in Italy is an effective response to this need. In this perspective, the present work intends to address the issue of smart redevelopment of existing buildings from an appraisal perspective. A method based on the application of BIM technology and capable to quantify in monetary terms the economic convenience for transformation in the light of the International Valuation Standards (IVS) is proposed. The paper is structured as follows. In Sect. 2, the main references literature on theme of digitalization and on the advantages brought using the BIM have been reported. In Sect. 3, the appraisal analysis methodology has been illustrated. Finally, in Sect. 4, the conclusions of the research have been discussed.

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2 BIM Approach 2.1 Building Information Modeling and Industry 4.0 Industry 4.0, digitalization, smart building, virtual reality: these are some of the terms that are becoming common even in a very traditional sector such as construction. A sector that never, like today, is at the centre of a revolution of approaches, methods, and processes. The last 15 years have seen the introduction of building information modelling (BIM) and the accompanying promotion of its potential in the construction industry. For the first time in the history of the construction industry, there is an IT-based integrated platform, BIM, which facilitates the flow of information between the many and diverse construction disciplines involved in the design, construction, and life of construction projects. Furthermore, BIM has the potential to improve collaboration between project stakeholders (clients, contractors, consultants, and other role players) leading to direct benefits to all concerned. From 2D and 3D assisted design to parametric design, innovation has led to a profound change of perspective in the very way of conceiving the work in all its phases. The subject of BIM currently represents a core technology for supporting the idea of the fourth industrial revolution in the construction industry [26]. As the center of the digitization of the construction industry, BIM can close the digital gap that still exists and have a positive impact on future building processes [9]. By incorporating various properties, BIM can offer a high-accuracy representation of a project at the level of components [39], and an integrated three-dimensional model can be adopted to completely express the definition information of buildings [35]. An important feature is the bidirectional coordination between the physical and virtual domains [5]. That coordination leads to a digital replica of the building, which improves the control and optimization of the construction process while also generating valuable data for the building’s operation/maintenance, as well as for the design and planning phase of future construction [23].

2.2 BIM: Advantages and Dimensions The use of Building Information Modelling is revolutionizing the delivery of projects within the built environment, resulting in its rapid adoption within this sector due to its numerous benefits. Various subsets of BIM can be referred to as dimensions, where 3D is the object model, 4D is time, 5D is cost, 6D is operation, 7D is sustainability, and 8D is safety [34, 37]. BIM can describe in a three-dimensional way the geometry of a building, but also the objects and attributes that constitute it. The heart of BIM is not the geometric representation of the building but the information structure of the data, not just graphics, which provide detailed information about the different components of

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the building. It could be said that even the objects used in BIM environment are “smart”, in other words enriched with attributes that allow you to store useful information about the object (size, material, colour, thermal resistance, etc.). Furthermore, the virtual model, thanks to the interconnections between the constituent parts, can automatically update itself when changes are made to the project. The main benefits of BIM are saving time and cost and improving quality by increasing collaboration and decreasing rework. By helping the entire supply chain to work from a single source of information, BIM reduces the risk of error and maximizes a team’s ability to innovate [7]. Cost-effectiveness was also identified by a study which examined how projects that used BIM managed to save costs in the design, construction, and maintenance phases [28]. Another benefit of BIM implementation in projects is to facilitate effective communication among project stakeholders [3, 20]. The dimensions of BIM aim to provide a holistic understanding of all the life cycle stages of a construction project starting from planning, designing, construction and operation and ending with deconstruction [31]. A 3D BIM model enables visual controls during design and construction phases and increases reliability and efficiency in the design and construction processes. Additionally, to achieve faster delivery, the time factor should be added [8, 21]. Time dimension and project scheduling in the BIM process is referred to as 4D BIM [36]. The 4-dimensional element in the BIM process can aid in tracking and predicting construction activities that lead to improved and efficient product delivery [29]. The 5D dimension in the BIM is defined as the use of 3D BIM information to produce quantitative outputs such as accurate material take-offs and construction costs estimation [24, 32]. From the virtual model it is possible to obtain schedules and bills of quantities automatically, since, in the BIM space, each 3D component of the project is recorded in all its forms and quantities and therefore can be automatically ordered, counted, and interrogated. BIM, therefore, considerably simplifies the work necessary for the estimation and control of costs as it significantly reduces the computation time of volumes, surfaces, etc., it allows to obtain data that would not be possible to obtain with CAD software without the aid of specific spreadsheets and makes the estimates extremely precise and free of errors or omissions, accurately computing every-thing that is modelled. The 6D dimension in the BIM helps to analyse the energy consumption of a building and come out with energy estimates at initial design stages. Accounting for various life stages of a structure, 6D BIM ensures accurate prediction of energy consumption requirements. 7D BIM is all about operations and facility management by building managers and owners. The dimension is used to track important asset data such as its status, maintenance/operation manuals, warranty information, technical specifications, etc. to be used at a future stage. Using 7D BIM ensures that everything in a project stays in its best shape from day 1 to the day of demolition of a structure.

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2.3 BIM and Appraisal Discipline Over the past decade, the BIM advent in the construction and infrastructure sector have also proved particularly useful in the economic declination represented by the fifth dimension, that of quantifying costs, thus drawing the attention of appraisers. Building cost appraisal is essential for budgeting and tendering in any construction project. It reflects the inherent risks and direct costs of a project involving materials, labor, professional services, etc. [27]. Inevitably, BIMs mean changes to the way cost plans and estimates are produced as well. References [19] and [16] claim that BIMs have the potential to increase efficiency. Five-dimensional BIMs offer the capabilities of generating takeoffs, counts, and measurements directly from a model, providing efficiencies for quantity surveyors, and providing more reliable cost advice [2, 6]. From the quantity surveyor point of view, the capability of BIMs of automating measurement is their key benefit, and it clearly speeds up the traditional estimating process. It is evident that BIMs deliver a more efficient operational solution for the quantity surveyors for cost estimation with their ability to link the relevant quantities and cost information to the digital building model cycle. We must note that the ability of BIM platforms to perform automated quantification of items, areas, and volumes of building elements does not produce a cost appraisal, but just an automatic quantity survey. Application of BIMs in cost estimation is a broader process than mere automated measurements. Acampa et al. [11] suggest several approaches for BIM-based cost estimation, such as exporting building object quantities to estimating software (usually MS Excel format), although [15] argues that it is inefficient to export the quantities if the BIM model and the spreadsheet or database are not linked in a way that the latter is automatically updated with the changes to the former. Again, it is possible to bridge the BIM tool directly with estimation software that is directly linked to the BIM design tools [17]. Another approach is to use BIM quantification tools to transfer the BIM models and their embedded information from BIM design tools into specialized Quantity Take Off (QTO) software, an approach that provides an advantage for the quantity surveyors to work using familiar QTO software without having to possess an in-depth under-standing of BIM design platforms [38]. In this way, BIMs have been widely used in economic analysis related to building lifecycle costs [18, 22, 25, 30]. Some research has been done about the use of BIMs in property valuations. El Yamani et al. [12] experimented with a prototype based on the hedonic price method to enhance real estate valuation. Yu et al. [40] are among the first to experiment with the integration of GIS and BIM for real estate valuation.

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3 Methods 3.1 The Highest and Best Use (HBU) Choosing between investment alternatives requires the recall of the transformation value as an economic criterion [13, 33]. The transformation value can be used in the resolution of economic efficiency problems in the analysis of the project: it is a value (revenue minus costs) that corresponds to the net present value of the financial analysis; it takes into account the resources, in their current state and in their susceptibility to improvement and development through an investment and intervention project; from a methodological perspective it can be used at the same time as a criterion of choice and method of evaluation, therefore, it can guide decision-making processes in the building sector and quantify the corresponding economic profitability; as a monetary value, it lends itself as a basis for the preparation of quantitative economic efficiency indices [4]. In the economic field, the transformation value is obtained by the difference between the expected value of the resources, once the construction of the work or the intervention has been considered, and the total cost of the realization of the project measured at the time of the evaluation. In principle, improvement measures have a positive impact on the market value of real estate and encourage the upgrading of medium-term buildings. However, it is useful to identify a methodology to demonstrate the real economic value of the transformation of the building because if the promoter, that is the initiator of the transformation process, does not identify the conditions for obtaining a profit commensurate with the risk, does not activate the development process leading to the realization of the project. All economic investments must comply with the principles of economic rationality before they are implemented [14]. Specifically, • An investment choice must increase the economic advantage. • The transformation alternative should be preferred among those equally possible which, depending on the nature of the economic consequences induced, minimizes costs, or maximizes revenues, or maximizes the difference between revenues and costs. The calculation of economic convenience is based on the principle of incrementality: to formulate the judgment of economic convenience, the incremental economic rates (costs, revenues, investments) deriving from any alternative of transformation must be considered. As the transformation process triggers a value change in real estate resources, the criterion of choice between possible transformations must be linked to the transformation value. According to economic theory, the transformation value is a syncretic economic aspect derived from the combination of market price and cost and is expressed by the difference between the expected market value of the processed property and its transformation cost:

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Transformation value = Value of the processed property − Processing cost

(1)

Transformation value is based on the principle that a rational entity is not willing to pay (now) an asset (that is, the property to be transformed) at a price higher than the present value of net (future) benefits that the same activity will be able to produce. The transformation value can therefore be used to express economic value judgments related to recovery and valorisation interventions. Where two or more recovery and valorisation measures can be envisaged, the transformation value may: supplement the objectivity requirements required for the choice, integrate the statistical criterion defined by the postulated ordinariness and allow the identification of the maximum and best use (HBU), that is the transformation to which the highest transformation value corresponds [10]. HBU refers to transformations: • • • •

Physically and technically feasible (technical constraint). Legally permitted (legal obligation). Financially feasible (budget constraint). Cost-effective compared to current destination (economic criterion).

These conditions must necessarily be met before HBU is selected as an alternative destination to the existing one. Since it is not at all obvious that transformations are profitable, the transformation value can help to assess economic convenience by providing a numerical target Δ expressed as: ) ( Δi = Vt_i − Vante = Vposti − Ki − Vante ,

(2)

where Vt_i is the transformation value of the i-th possible transformation (which corresponds to the value of the asset in the post-intervention conditions net of the costs of the transformation Ki ), Vante is the market value of the building in the current conditions, Vposti is the market market of the building in the conditions following the intervention. Considering all the i = 1, ..., n possible transformations, the HBU will instead be indicated through the quantification of the differential, and represented by the transformation characterized by the condition: Δi = max{Δ1 ; Δ2 ; . . . ; Δn }

(3)

About existing residential buildings, the transformation value criterion described above can be used for two distinct purposes: • Assess the increase in the value of the building for the building affected by the digitalization of the built environment (Δi ) as a profit for the investor. • Identification of the most cost-effective digitization of the built environment (e.g., HBU-Δi ).

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3.2 BIM as an Aid to HBU Appraisal The redesign of existing buildings in a smart key according to their economic value finds in BIM a valid ally. The costs appraisal to be incurred for different scenarios of improvement and therefore of real estate transformation can be carried out through the BIM in automatic way. As mentioned above (Sect. 3.2), the transformation value appraisal is often placed within decision-making processes whose purpose is to determine the convenience of a choice, that is, to determine the economic convenience related to the transformation of an asset. To make an economic judgement it is necessary to examine the incremental economic manifestations of costs and revenues, that is, those which result at each choice of improvement and which would not occur in its absence. It is here that the 5D aspects of the BIM model come to the aid, which allow to manage and control the costs of the work. The use of 5D-BIM technology, in fact, leads to greater precision and predictability in estimating project costs, variations in quantities and materials, equipment or labour. BIM-5D provides methods for cost extraction and analysis, and assessment of scenarios and impacts resulting from changes. This process allows a controlled planning on the costs of the project and allows a greater efficiency in the use of resources. The 5D potential of the virtual model allows, in the end, to simplify the analysis of economic feasibility in the processes of transformation of a building orienting more effectively the identification of the HBU of the asset.

4 Conclusions and Future Goals The digital evolution has triggered profound changes in real estate: the way of understanding the building has changed from being simple shell to an advanced technological object. The BIM technology is the tool capable of driving this change by sharing all the information collected during the design phase, and then use it for the composition of the spaces, to define its possible uses and to manage them with a view to maximising the economic value of a property. Today, therefore, the theme of the redevelopment of buildings belonging to the existing real estate is very relevant and represents a driving force for the construction market. The BIM technology makes possible a strategic approach of economic valorisation of the existing real estate based on the analysis of the costs linked to different interventions of transformation of a building artifact to determine its economic convenience and to guide decision-making processes. Through this approach, it will be easier to pursue the goal of making existing buildings even more durable and “smart”. This contribution represents the initial step of an ongoing research. A future direction of research could be to define an automatic evaluation method that exploits the IT potential offered by BIM and implements the transformation value appraisal of buildings subject to redevelopment.

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26. Oesterreich TD, Teuteberg F (2016) Understanding the implications of digitization and automation in the context of Industry 4.0: a triangulation approach and elements of a research agenda for the construction industry. Comput Ind 83:121–139 27. Olatunji OA, Sher WD, Ogunsemi DR (2010) The impact of building information modelling on construction cost estimation. In Proceedings of the 18th CIB World Building Congress, Salford, UK, 10–13 May 2010 28. Olbina S, Elliott JW (2019) Contributing project characteristics and realized benefits of successful BIM implementation: a comparison of complex and simple buildings. Buildings 9:175 29. Park J (2017) Dynamic multi-dimensional BIM for total construction as-built documentation. Purdue University: West Lafayette, IN, USA 30. Redmond A, Hore AV, West R (2011) Developing a cloud integrated life cycle costing analysis model through BIM. In Proceedings of the computer knowledge building, Sophia Antipolis, France, 26–28 October 2011 31. Saeed ZO, Almukhtar A, Abanda H, Tah J (2021) BIM applications in post-conflict contexts: the reconstruction of Mosul City. Buildings 11:351 32. Shi A, Shirowzhan S, Sepasgozar SM, Kaboli A (2020) 5D BIM applications in quantity surveying: dynamo and 3D printing technologies. Smart Cities Constr 139 33. Simonotti M (1995) La logica estimativa del valore di trasformazione. Aestimum 33:15–33 34. Smith P (2014) BIM & the 5D project cost manager. Proc Soc Behav Sci 119:475–484 35. Soust-Verdaguer B, Llatas C, García-Martínez A (2017) Critical review of bim-based LCA method to buildings. Energy Build 136:110–120 36. Viklund Tallgren M, Roupé M, Johansson M, Bosch-Sijtsema P (2020) BIM-tool development enhancing collaborative scheduling for pre-construction. J Inf Technol Constr 25:374–397 37. Wildenauer AA (2020) Critical assessment of the existing definitions of BIM dimensions on the example of Switzerland. Terminology 23:24 38. Wu S, Wood G, Ginige K, Jong SW (2014) A technical review of BIM based cost estimating in UK quantity surveying practice, standards and tools. J Inf Technol Constr 19:534–562 39. You Z, Feng L (2020) Integration of industry 4.0 related technologies in construction industry: a framework of cyber-physical system. IEEE Access 8:122908–122922 40. Yu H, Liu Y (2016) Integrating geographic information system and building information model for real estate valuation. In: Proceedings of the FIG working week 2016, Christchurch, New Zealand, 2–6 May 2016

Environmental Discount Rate and Energy Transition. An Application for Germany Gabriella Maselli and Antonio Nesticò

Abstract The achievement of climate neutrality objectives must be guided by longterm policies. It is worth mentioning the projects of the European Green Deal with objectives for 2050 and the investment strategies aimed at containing global warming, the repercussions of which manifest themselves for decades. In assessing the sustainability of these policies, a central role is played by the Social Discount Rate: the greater its value, the less importance is attributed to the project’s effects that are progressively further away over time. The use of constant discount rates, generally used in practice, exacerbates the effect of reducing the present value of future costs and benefits, which are thus underestimated. The aim of the work is to demonstrate how the use of innovative, dual and declining approaches allow to take into account the problems of intergenerational equity, typical of investment projects for the ecological transition. This approach is called dual because it is based on the use of discount rates which, for the actualization of environmental externalities, are different from the rates that weigh strictly financial components. Both economic and environmental discount rates have a declining structure for projects with long-term effects. The analysis model, which defines environmental quality as a function of energy indicators, is implemented to estimate both economic and environmental declining discount rates for Germany, the main European economy. The results obtained, also compared with those already obtained for other economies, show that the use of environmental discount rates can affect the process of allocating resources for energy policy interventions. Keywords Energy transition investments · Cost–benefit analysis · Social discount rate · Environmental quality

The work is attributed equally to both authors. G. Maselli · A. Nesticò (B) Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, Fiscianao, SA, Italy e-mail: [email protected] G. Maselli e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 F. Abastante et al. (eds.), Urban Regeneration Through Valuation Systems for Innovation, Green Energy and Technology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12814-1_19

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1 Introduction According to the International Energy Agency and International Renewable Energy Agency [24], approximately two thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to the production and use of energy from fossil fuels. The reduction of carbon emissions has to take place quickly if the negative effects of climate change are to be contained. Specifically, in order to meet the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement and keep the global temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius, the intensity of CO2 emissions must be reduced by 85% in 35 years. This requires a reduction in energy CO2 emissions by 2.6% per year on average, or 0.6 gigatonnes per year in absolute terms [8, 24]. Governments have a key role to play in accelerating the energy transition, as they must encourage policies, programmes and projects that help realise the EU’s longterm strategy of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. In this respect, the European Green Deal—the roadmap for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050—has among its main objectives: (i) build interconnected energy systems and better integrated networks to support renewable energy sources; (ii) promote innovative technologies and a modern energy infrastructure; (iii) increase energy efficiency and promote ecodesign of products; (iv) decarbonising the gas sector and promoting smart integration between sectors; (v) empowering consumers and helping Member States to tackle energy poverty; (vi) promoting EU energy standards and technologies worldwide; (vii) developing the full potential of EU offshore wind energy [8]. This framework shows that policies to guide the energy transition have long-term effects, often resulting in costs and benefits that extend over many decade [26]. Consider, for instance, the projects that are part of the European Green Deal or, more generally, the interventions aimed at accelerating the energy transition: these are investments whose economic, social and environmental impact can be felt over a period of several decades or even centuries [12]. It is therefore essential to focus on the choice of Social Discount Rate (SDR) to be used in the economic evaluation of energy projects. In fact, the rates generally used in Cost-Benefit Analyses (CBA) are time-constant. Such SDRs do not lend themselves to weighing the costs and benefits further away from the time of the evaluation. This is because the higher the discount rate used, the lower the present value of progressively more distant cash flows [20]. Consequently, the long-term impacts of investments in energy efficiency, generally characterised by high initial costs and positive intergenerational environmental externalities, would be underestimated. This paper aims to show how the use of dual and declining approaches would provide a fairer assessment of the intertemporal effects of intervention initiatives. Applying a dual approach means discounting environmental impacts at a different and lower rate than the one used for the strictly financial impacts of the investment. Both environmental and economic rates have a declining structure over time to avoid that some socio-cultural and environmental externalities are neglected in the analysis. With this study we implement an innovative economic-environmental discounting approach [18] to estimate economic and environmental discount rates for Germany,

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which is not only the largest European economy, but also one of the first investors in Energy Transition. This is to demonstrate how discount rates estimated with dual and declining approaches, lower than those suggested by the European Commission, can guide the decision-making process towards investments able to achieve the climate neutrality goals. The paper is structured in five sections. Section 2 provides a comprehensive discussion of materials and methods. Section 3 presents experimental results from the application of the model to the German economy. Section 4 discusses the results, also comparing them with those estimated for other countries, and discusses the conclusions.

2 Material and Methods The choice of the SDR estimation approach is widely debated, as even small variations in SDR can significantly influence the results of the analysis [13]. This debate becomes even more complex regarding projects with environmental impacts, since such investments are often characterised by high initial costs and long-term environmental and social benefits. Therefore, the use of constant discount rates favours interventions with high initial revenues, underestimating possible intergenerational environmental damage [12, 26]. SDR, which reflects the long-term opportunity cost of resources for society, can be estimated with different approaches. As mentioned, the most widely used discount rates in practice are time-constant and the literature suggests several approaches to estimate them. As also suggested by the European Commission [8, 10], the most widely used approach by Western governments is the Social Rate of Time Preference (SRTP), which defines the rate at which the consumers are willing to postpone a unit of current consumption in exchange for more future consumption [4]. It is shown that the maximisation of the Social Welfare Function (SWF), which depends only on the utility of consumption, yields the well-known Ramsey formula [27], according to which the SRTP is given by the sum of two contributions. The first component is ρ, that is the rate of pure time preference. The second component is itself given by the product of two terms: η, the consumption elasticity of marginal utility that describes the change of marginal utility when consumption changes the speed at which marginal consumption declines; g, the growth rate of consumption that details how quickly consumption increases. According to some authors, however, this approach does not allow to give proper weight to future environmental impacts. Therefore, the choice of SDR becomes even more relevant when the policy goals of reducing global temperature must be translated into investment strategies for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [7]. Scholars such as [23] and [5] point out that a lower discount rate than the one suggested by governments is needed to steer decision-making towards more sustainable investment choices. In this respect, [7] argue that the achievement of the climate targets of the Paris Agreement (2015) can only be guaranteed by using very

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low discount rates, such as the one proposed by Stern [28]. In line with this vision, van den [32] and [33] show that the discount rate is a crucial determinant of the social cost of carbon. Another part of the literature argues that the use of lower rates than those suggested by governments, but still constant, is not adequate to fairly account for long-run extramonetary effects. Therefore, several scholars believe that it is preferable to use timedeclining discounting procedures, which allow to give more weight to progressively more distant events as constant discounting is inconsistent with consumer preferences [1, 3, 15, 22, 37]. In other words, when faced with the decision between a smaller reward sooner and a larger reward later, individuals would apply a lower discount rate in the long run. In this respect also the EC [8] states that the SDR may decrease during the reference period in projects with long-term impacts involving intergenerational equity consideration. According to a more recent and not yet sufficiently investigated strand of the literature, the environmental components of a plan, programme or project should be discounted at a lower “ecological” rate than the “economic” rate used for the discounting of strictly financial cash flows [14, 35, 36]. This would be possible assuming that SWF is a function not only of consumption but also of environmental quality [14]. Finally, many studies point to the need to estimate sector-specific discount rates [6]. Just to mention a few, Muñoz-Torrecillas et al. [19] estimate an SDR for afforestation projects in the United States. Vazquez-Lavín et al. [34] propose a declining SDR for eco-system services, valid for projects aimed at preserving biodiversity in marine protected areas in Chile. With reference to energy projects, [16, 26, 29] provide a review of Social Discount Rates for Energy Transition Policy and their implications for decision making. Foltyn-Zarychta et al. [12] propose a lower discount rate than that suggested by the government, since planning horizons for energy policies are generally long-term. The US Department of Energy (DOE) specifies that a rate of 3% should be used for energy conservation projects (2015). We believe that for projects with strong environmental impacts, such as those aimed at achieving energy transition, dual approaches should be employed. This means using an environmental discount rate different from the economic one. If the time horizon is long, i.e. if the effects of the project can be considered intergenerational, then the discount approach must be dual and declining in time. If there are theoretical references to both approaches in the literature, they are hardly used together. In addition, there are still few empirical applications of the dual approach. We have already theoretically defined an innovative economic-environmental (or dual) discounting approach for energy projects (2020). In this approach, based on the Ramsey’s growth model [27] and the Gollier’s ecological discounting model [14], the Energy Transition Index (ETI) was introduced as a proxy variable for environmental quality. In addition, by modelling the “consumption growth rate” parameter as a stochastic variable, it was possible to define the time-declining structure for the two discount rates, economic and environmental.

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With this paper, we intend to provide an empirical estimate of the two discount rates, environmental and economic, for Germany. This is both to test the defined model and to show how the use of lower environmental discount rates than economic ones can profoundly influence the process of economic resource allocation for an economy that plays a key role in the Energy Transition in Europe. In the following we go through the methodological steps useful to estimate both environmental and economic declining discount rates. For more theoretical background on the model refer to Nesticò and Maselli [20]. According to [14], the intertemporal SWF becomes the sum of the utilities derived from both consumption ct and environmental quality qt . Therefore, deriving U(ct , qt ) with respect to consumption ct , we have the function describing the economic discount rate r c :   rc = ρ + [η1 + δ · (η2 −1)] · g1 −0.5 · (1 + η1 + δ · (η2 −1) · σ11

(1)

Deriving U(ct , qt ) with respect to the environmental quality qt , we obtain the ecological discount rate function r q :   rq = ρ + [(δ · η2 + η1 −1)] · g1 −0.5 · (δ · η2 + η1 ) · σ11

(2)

In (1) and (2): ρ represents the rate of pure time preference; η1 is the aversion to risk on consumption; η2 is the aversion to environmental risk; g1 the consumption growth rate; σ 11 is the variance of g1 ; δ expresses the elasticity of environmental quality with respect to consumption. Step 1: Estimating the socio-economic parameters in (1) and (2). The socioeconomic parameters to be estimated are: (i) the rate ρ of pure time preference; (ii) the aversion to risk on consumption η1 ; (iii) σ 11 is the variance of g1 . Regarding g1 , the growth rate of consumption, please refer to step 3. Step 2: Estimating the environmental parameters in (1) and (2). The environmental parameters to be estimated are: (i) the aversion to environmental risk η2 ; (ii) the elasticity δ of environmental quality with respect to consumption. In this model, we use the Environmental Transition Index (ETI) as a proxy variable for environmental quality. ETI, provided by the World Economic Forum (WEF), allows us to compare and support countries in their energy transition needs, considering their current energy system performance and the readiness of their macroeconomic, social and regulatory environment for transition. Step 3: Deriving the probability distribution of the consumption growth rate g1 . It is necessary to analyse the trend of g1 and identify the probability distribution that best approximates the historical data. This is a necessary step to derive the declining functions of the two discount rates rct and rqt . Step 4: Deriving the declining term-structures of the economic discount rate and the environmental discount rate. From the probability distribution of g1 , we first derive the probability distributions of rc and rq , implementing Monte Carlo analysis. We then estimate: (a) the certainty-equivalent economic and environmental discount

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factors; (b) the declining functions for the environmental discount rate rct and for the economic discount rate rqt , starting from the discount factors computed in (a).

3 Application. An Empirical Estimate for Germany In this section we estimate the functions of the economic discount rate rct and the environmental discount rate rqt with reference to the German economy, which is among the leading Energy Transition investors in Europe. The details of the calculations are given below. Step 1: Estimating the socio-economic parameters in (1) and (2). Parameter ρ, that is the ‘intergenerational discrimination rate’, expresses the value that people place on the well-being of the present generation compared to that of the next generation [17]. According to [11], ρ is a function of: (i) l, which represents the country’s average mortality rate based on World Bank data for the period 1962–2021; (ii) r, related to the impatience of individuals and the other related to the risk of death or human extinction, to which a value of 0.3% is attributed in order not to create an unfair disparity of treatment between the current and future generations. Table 1 details the estimation of ρ. η1 represents the percentage of which the marginal utility diminishes when consumption rises by 1% [17]. To estimate this variable, we follow the “revealed social values” approach in which is understood as a variable of government aversion Table 1 ρ estimation Year

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

l [%]

0.119

0.12

0.116

0.12

0.119

0.119

0.126

0.127

0.125

0.123

Year

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

l [%]

0.123

0.122

0.121

0.126

0.123

0.119

0.122

0.121

0.122

0.122

Year

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

l [%]

0.12

0.12

0.118

0.12

0.119

0.116

0.115

0.115

0.116

0.114

Year

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

l [%]

0.11

0.111

0.109

0.108

0.108

0.105

0.104

0.103

0.102

0.101

Year

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

l [%]

0.102

0.103

0.099

0.101

0.1

0.101

0.103

0.104

0.105

0.106

Year

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

l [%]

0.108

0.111

0.107

0.113

0.111

0.113

0.115

0.113

0.114

0.115

l average [%]

1.14

r [%]

0.3

ρ [%]

1.44

Source World Bank

Environmental Discount Rate and Energy Transition …

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to income inequality. Therefore, we assess η1 based on the analysis of the progressive fiscal system of the country [21]. Agreeing to Cowell and Gardiner’s formula [2]: η1 =

log(1−t) log(1− YT )

(3)

where t equals the marginal rate; T/Y represents the average tax rate. The marginal t and average T/Y individual income tax rates (for multiples 67, 100, 133, 167% of the average wage) are taken from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Countries (OECD) database. Table 2 gives the estimate for η1 . g1 , i.e. the growth rate of consumption, is approximated to the growth rate of a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [25]. The analysis of the historical and economic framework of Germany over the last 50 years yields a GDP growth rate of 1.84% and a variance σ11 of 0.046%. Table 3 shows the time series for g1 . Table 2 η1 estimation 67%

100%

133%

167%

t

0.55

0.60

0.56

0.44

T/Y

0.45

0.49

0.51

0.512

log (1–t)

−0.35

−0.39

−0.36

−0.25

log (1–T/Y)

−0.31

−0.31

−0.26

−0.29

η1

1.34

1.34

Average η1

1.17

1.168

0.82

Data source OECD

Table 3 g1 dataset Year

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

g [%]

3.1

4.3

4.8

0.9

−0.9

4.9

3.3

3.0

4.2

1.4 1990

Year

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

g [%]

0.5

−0.04

1.6

2.8

2.3

1.4

3.7

3.9

5.3

Year

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

g [%]

5.1

1.9

−1.0

2.4

1.5

0.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.9

Year

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

g [%]

1.7

−0.2

−0.7

1.2

0.7

3.8

3.0

1.0

−5.7

4.2

Year

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

g [%]

3.9

0.4

0.4

2.2

1.5

2.2

2.7

1.1

1.1

−4.6

g1 [%]

1.84

σ11 [%]

0.046

Source World Bank

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Step 2: Estimating the environmental parameters in (1) and (2). The first environmental parameter is η2 , which represents the degree of environmental risk aversion. It is a function of the consumption expenditure η* to be allocated to environmental quality: η∗ =

η2 −1 η1 + η2 −2

(4)

The value of η2 is derived by assuming η* = 30% and is equal to 1.07 [14]. δ summarises the sensitivity of environmental quality q—expressed through the Energy Transition Index (ETI)—to changes in consumption c. The ETI, estimated by the World Economic Forum (WEF), gives a framework to compare and support countries in their energy transition needs, considering their current energy system performance and the readiness of their macroeconomic, social and regulatory environment for transition. The index, which summarises 40 different indicators, is currently available for 114 countries [38]. c is approximated to GDP per capita. Applying OLS estimation of the regression coefficients, we obtain a relationship of the type: ln q = a + δ · ln c + ε

(5)

where a is the line interception on the order and ε the statistical error of the regression. From the regression analysis expressed in (5), we derive a δ value of 0.07. Implementing (1) and (2), we obtain for Germany: a time-constant economic discount rate of 3.53% and a time-constant ecological discount rate of 1.88%. Step 3: Deriving the probability distribution of the consumption growth rate g1 . From the trend analysis of g1 we derive the probability distribution able to approximate the historical data. The Anderson-Darling test returns the logistic curve as the best performing probability distribution. Figure 1 represents the probability distribution of g1 . Table 4 shows the statistical indices. Step 4: Deriving the declining term-structures of the economic discount rate and the environmental discount rate. By implementing Monte Carlo analysis, the probability distribution of rc and rq is obtained, starting from the probability distribution of g1 defined in the previous step. Figure 2 shows the probability distribution of rc Fig. 2a and rq Fig. 2b and Table 5 summarises the relevant statistical indices. By estimating the economic and environmental certainty-equivalent discount factors, we move from an uncertain but constant discount rate to a certain discount rate but declining with a certainty-equivalent [18]. Figure 3 gives the declining functions for the environmental discount rate rct and the economic discount rate rqt for Germany.

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Fig. 1 Probability distribution for g1

Table 4 Statistical indices for g1

Statistics

Hypothesis values

Trial

10,000

Base case

1.84%

Mean

1.94%

Median

1.95%

Standard Dev

2.05%

Variance

0.04%

Kurtosis

4.27

Coeff. di variation

1.05

Min

−9.06%

Max

12.18%

Mean standard error

0.02%

4 Discussion and Conclusions The implementation of the model returns the following values for the two declining functions of the economic discount rate and the environmental discount rate. For Germany, rct starts at a value of 4.3% and arrives after 300 years at a value of 1.50%. On the contrary, the function rqt is characterised by markedly lower values from the beginning of the evaluation. In fact, the environmental discount rate is initially equal to 1.92% and then reaches a value of 0.86% at the end of the analysis period. The Green Book [30, 31] recommends for different categories of projects a programme of decreasing but constant discount rates in the following time intervals: 1–30 years; 31–75 years; 76–125 years; 126–200 years; 200–300 years. If we

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(a)

(b)

Fig. 2 a Probability distribution for rc , b probability distribution for rq

follow the time intervals suggested by Green Book [31], we obtain the following average values for the two discount rates. rct is: 3.80% in the period 1–30 years; 2.91% in the interval 31–75 years; 2.26% in the period 76–125; 1.84% in the years 126–200; 1.58% for the time range 200–300. rqt values: 1.89% (1–30 years); 1.79% (31–75 years); 1.66% (76–125 years); 1.46% (126–200 years); 1.09% (201–300 years). The economic discount rate obtained for the first 30 years is slightly higher than the 3% rate suggested by the European Commission (EC) for all Cohesion Fund countries [8]. The EC itself, however, suggests that governments conduct countryspecific estimates and indicates that such discount rates may be declining for projects with very long-term impacts [10]. In contrast, few empirical estimates have been made for environmental discount rates and none of these valuations concern the German economy. Comparing the results with those obtained for China and Italy gives rise to a crucial reflection [18]. As

Environmental Discount Rate and Energy Transition … Table 5 Statistical indices for rc and rq

313

Statistics

Hypothesis values for rc

Hypothesis values for rq

Trial

10,000

10,000

Base case

3.53%

1.88%

Mean

3.65%

1.90%

Median

3.66%

1.90%

Standard Dev

2.40%

0.50%

Variance

0.06%

0.002%

Kurtosis

4.27

4.27

Coeff. di variation

0.66

0.26

Min

−9.24%

−0.77%

Max

15.66%

4.38%

Mean standard error

0.02%

0.005%

Fig. 3 Declining term-structures for rct and rqt

in Italy, the two functions of the discount rate decline much less rapidly in Germany than in China. This result is a function of China’s “worse” environmental situation and shows that investment choices in line with the objectives of sustainability and climate neutrality must be given even higher priority here. Another important result is derived from the comparison of the rct and rqt functions for Germany: the environmental discount rate function decreases less rapidly than the economic discount rate function but takes on significantly lower values from

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the beginning of the assessment. This shows that, even in the case of projects with short-term effects, the environmental effects should be discounted at a different and lower rate than the one used to assess the strictly financial components. In conclusion, the estimation of discount rates for Germany and the comparison with the values already obtained for other countries shows: (i) the relative simplicity of the model implementation; (ii) the necessity to conduct country-specific estimations. Finally, this paper shows that the use of alternative implementation procedures directs the analyst towards investment choices that accelerate the Energy Transition process.

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