Urban Land Use Planning, Fifth Edition [5 ed.] 0252030796, 9780252030796

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Fifth Edition

Urban Land Use Planning - ·--v -

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Philip R. Berke, David R. Godschalk, and Edward J. Kaiser with Daniel A. Rodriguez University of Illinois Press Urbana and Chicago

Gra ph ic images used on the cover and part and chapter opener pages are reprinted with permission from :\lichael Morrissey and the New Haven plan: Duany Plater-Zyberk and Company. Gra phic images for figures 4-5, 4-6 , 4-7, and 4-9 reprinted with permission from Planning Support Systems, Ric hard K. Brail and Richard E. Klosterman, Editors. Copyright 2001 ESRI. All rights reserved. Figure 6-9 is reprinted with permission from th e Jou rnal of the American Planning Association. Copyright :\u tum n 2003 by the Am erican Planning Association, Suite 1500, 122 South Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60683 6 107. Figure 13 -5 is reprinted with permission from the Journal of American Institute of Planners. Copyright Nov. 1967 by the American Planning Association, Suite 1500, 122 South Michigan Ave., Ch icago, IL 60683 -6107. ~ 2006 by the Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois :\ll rights reserved.

:\ lanufac tured in China c 6 5 4 3 2 Th is bo ok is printed on acid -free paper. Li bra ry of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Crban la nd use planning I Philip R. Berke .. . [et al.].-5 1h ed. p. cm . Re,·. ed . of: Urban land use planning I Edward J. Kaiser, David R. Godschalk, and F. Stuar t Chapin, Jr. 41h ed . cl995. In cludes bibliographical references and index. ISB :'\ - 13: 978-0 -252-03079 -6 (ISBN 13 - cloth : alk. paper) !SB:'\ - I 0: 0-252 -03079-6 (ISBN 10 - cloth: alk. paper) 1. City plann ing- United States. 2. Regional planning - Un ited States. 3. Land use, Urban Cni ted States. I. Berke, Philip, 1951 - II. Kaiser, Edward John. Urban land use planning. HT167 .U 726 2006 333 . 77'0973- dc22 2005012429

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Contents

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Preface

viii

Part I: Conceptual Framework for Land Use Planning 1. Framing the Land Use Planning Process The Land Use Planning Arena 4 Values, Planning, and Sustainable Communities 18 Land Use Values The Land Use Planning Program 23 Co re Planning Capabilities 29 Summary 30 Notes 30 References 31

1 3

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2. Shaping Plans through the Sustainability Prism Model Managing Land Use Change 36 37 Planning and the Tensions of Sustainable Development Sustain able Development and Livable Commu nities 38 A Prism Model of Sustainability 39 Reaching the Heart of the Sustainability Prism 45 Summary 54 Notes 55 References 56

35

3. What Makes a Good Plan? Core Purposes of a Plan 60 Types of Plans as Products of a Multistage Process Criteri a for Evaluating Plan Quality 69 Potential Limitations 75 Summary 77 Appendix 78 Notes 82 References 82

59 60

Part II: Overview of Building Planning Support Systems 4. Planning Support Systems Planning Support System Technologies 90 Planning Support System Functions 102 Intelligence in the Plan-making Process llO Summa ry 112 Notes 11 2 References 11 4

85 89

5 . Population and Economy How Population and Economic Analyses Are Used 125 Sources of Population and Economic Data Methods for Analyzing Population and Employmen t 142 The Critical Role of Assumptions Desirable Ch aracteristics of a Forecast 143 Summ ary 145 Notes 146 References 146

117 11 8 126

6. Environmental Systems Environmental Inventory and Classification 150 Analyzing Environmental Information 177 Summ ary 191 Notes 192 References 193

149

7. Land Use Systems Forces of Land Use Change 198 Land Supply Inventory and Classificati on Future Land Use Analysis 212 Land Use Intelligence 217 221 Summary Notes 222 References 222

197 203

8. Transportation and Infrastructure Systems Roles of Community Facilities 226 Transportatio n Fac ilities 228 Water, Sewerage, and School Infrastructure 249 258 Summary Notes 260 References 260

225

9. State of Community Report Preparing the State of Community Report Aggregating Key Findings 267 Building Comm unity Consensus 27 1 Ongoing Involvement 281 Summary 283 Notes 284 Referen ces 284

265 266

Part Ill: Overview of Making Land Use Plans 10. The Plan-making Process Preparation for Plan Making 292 Components Produced by Stage in th e Plan- ma king Process 294 300 Designing th e Spat ial Arrangements of Land Uses Progression of Attention am o ng Land Uses in the Design Process 310

287 291

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Summary 311 Notes 313 References 313

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11. The Areawide Land Policy Plan The Co ncept and Purpose of an Areawide Land Policy Plan 316 The Overall Process for Areawide Land Policy Planning 318 Delineating Open -space Conservation Districts for th e Land Policy Map 324 Delineating Policy Districts for Urban Growth and Redevelopment 333 Formulating Implem entation Policies for Each Policy District 343 Bringing It Together into a Comprehensive Areawide Land Policy Plan 343 Summary 345 References 346

315

12. Communitywide Land Use Design: Employment and Commercial Centers Types of Land Uses and Activity Centers 348 Matching Land Uses and Activity Center Forms 357 Planning the Communitywide Spatial Structure of Employment and Commercial Activity Centers 358 Summary 377 References 380

347

13 . Communitywide Land Use Design: Residential Community Habitats Formulating a Residential Community Vision 384 The Residential Habitat Plannin g Process 400 Summary 418 References 419

383

14. Small-area Plans The Nature an d Purpose of Sm all- area Plans 422 Types of Small-area Plans 424 What a Small-area Plan Looks Like 42 8 The Process of Making Small-area Plans 432 Summary 445 References 446

421

15. Development Management Development-management Concepts 450 Development-management Plan and Program Design Participatory Processes 455 Technical Analysis 457 Tool Selecti on 460 Impl ementation 465 Summary 472 Notes 472 473 References

449

Index

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477

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Preface

he need for planners to help communities shape a vision of the future and plan to achieve the vision has never been greater. Communities are confronting complex and multifaceted issues, many of which appear in the form of a double- edged sword. Globalization and new communication technologies mean that new wealth, jobs, and opportunities for revitalization can rapidly flow into communities, but flow out just as quickly. Population shifts not only stimulate diversity and prospects for positive change, but also create pressures on the environment, transportation and infrastructure systems, and housing supply, and can contribute to widening gaps between rich and poor and cities and suburbs. To planners, these issues pose great challenges. Planners work to help commu nities discern emerging trends and issues, fashion visions of the future, and create plans to achieve their visions. Planners must bring creativity, expertise, and determination to the effort. They require skills to generate accurate information, create thoughtful solutions, and build consensus among interests with a stake in land use outcomes. They must continually apply new ideas, techniques, and practical solutions to everyday planning and development problems. The perennial question in planning is: How can we create future places that are sustainable and livable? This leads to further questions: How do land use plans affect the urban development process within human settlements? What methods and techniques are available to planners to create and implement high-quality plans that effectively guide land use change toward more sustainable outcomes? These qu estions frame the approach of this fifth edition of Urban Land Use Planning. Our primary objective is to present methods and techniques for land use plan making and to explain how plans can help to create human settlement patterns that promote sustainable outcomes in metropolitan regions, cities, towns, and villages. This fifth edition is part of the continued evolution of land use planning methods since 1957, when F. Stuart Chapin, Jr., wrote the first edition. The five editions represent a major part of the history of land use planning methodology in the United States. The first edition organized and synthesized the techniques of planning practice during the 1950s, and explored emerging theories of the young and growing profession. The second edition in 1965, also by Chapin, shifted away from the practice of applying planning methods to a more scientific approach founded on automated data processing and mathematical modeling. More attention was given to planning theory and urban theory, especially theoretical explanations of human activity patterns as the underlying basis for land use planning. The third edition in 1979, by Chapin and Kaiser, emphasized the increased influence of federal and state planning on local planning, integrated information systems, and development guidance systems to direct planning. The fourth edition in 1995, by Kaiser, Godschalk, and Chapin, centered on the emergence of microcomputer technology, the rise of participation and negotiation, th e increased attention to developm ent managem ent, and the evolving state planning influ ences on local planning.

IX u

Several themes run through this fifth edition. The overarching theme is the role of land use planning in achieving sustainable development. Related major themes include development of analytical planning support systems, application of consensus building, and integration of design and urban form goals into planmaking processes. Planning support systems track current conditions and trends within a planning area, provide information to build local knowledge about growth and development issues and trends, and facilitate collective decision making based on knowl edge of a planning area's population, economy, environment, land use, and infrastructure. Consensus building brings together major stakeholders to address con troversial issues and build agreement on planning visions and goals, while sharing information to generate new ideas that lead to creative solutions. Design deals with the configuration and m ix of land uses, the integration of transportation and infrastructure systems within th e envisioned land use pattern, and the mass ing and organization of buildings and spaces between them. The aim is the generation of a positive image of the future community- an inspirational planning vision that is solidly grounded and widely supported . Throughout this book we draw on the strengths of the rational, consensus building, and visionary urb an design models of planning. We explore techniques to build community capacity to prepare, implement, and adopt plans that progressively guide change in ways that balance the multiple goals that make up sustain able settlement patterns. We emphasi ze a contemporary model of planning that incorporates rational analysis, consensus building, and participatory design. In this model, the planner is a facilitator who helps the community discover its vision and explores ways to achieve it, a technical analyst who provides objective in formation, an innovator who offers creative alternatives and clar ifies opportuniti es for change, and a consensus builder who ensures th at the process of planning is open and inclusive. We attempt to span a broad spectrum of theories and techniques for creating and implementing good plans. However, no book could hope to do justice to all theories and techniques applicable to contemporary planning practice. Our purpose is not to create a grand overarching theory, but to identify key ideas, con cepts, and techniques for improving the performance of planners and planning. This fifth edition consists of three parts. Part 1 reviews the societal context of local land use planning, and lays out a conceptual planning framework that is used for organizing the for mat an d content of the book. It presents a sustainability prism model for understanding and reconciling the diverging priorities of stakeholders in the land use arena, and reviews criteria for creating high-quality plans. Part 2 covers the key data input and analysis techniques for the demographic and economic, environmental, land use, transportation, and infrastructure components of a planning support system. Part 3 provides a detailed explanation of the concepts and sequence of tasks associated with preparing and implementing plans. We gratefully acknowl edge the contribution of the people who helped us complete this new edition. Our colleague, F. Stuart Chapin, Jr., has been our continuing inspiration in constructing a systematic land use plann ing methodology

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grounded in both theory and practice. Our graduate students at the Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, provided critiques, new ideas, and assistance to improve the quality of the manuscript in countless ways; Aurelie Brunie, Joel Mann, Bhavna Mistry, Helen O'Shea, and Julie Stein were especially helpful. We are obliged to several colleagues who were kind enough to read and suggest improvements to the manuscript, including Ann-Margaret Esnard, Florida Atlantic University; Steve French, Georgia Tech University; Lew Hopkins, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Dowell Meyers, University of Southern California; and Chris Webster, University of Cardiff. We appreciate the diligent administrative and technical assista nce in image pro cessing during various stages of the manuscript provided by Udo Reisinger. The Faculty Partners Program of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill gave financial support that was critical for producing the manuscript. Numerous practitioners provided examples of plans, graphics, and studies that helped us illustrate how our explanations translate to practice and gave credibility to our work. Finally, we are deeply grateful to the support and intellectual companionship of Jan e, Lallie, Pat, and Pia throughout this effort, and for the patience and support of all our families.

PARTI

Conceptual Framework for Land Use Planning

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ur primary interest in this book is to explain how land use planning can be applied to create human settlement patterns that promote sustainable outcomes in metropolitan regions, cities, towns, and villages. We start by exploring the societal context ofland use planning, and present a conceptual framework of local land use planning that will be used for organizing the format and content of this book. We then propose a model for understanding and reconciling the divergent priorities among competing stakeholders in the land use planning arena, and review plan-quality criteria for creating plans that are influential in guiding future land use change. In chapter 1, "Framing the Land Use Planning Process," we describe the dynamic societal context of land use planning. We conceive land use planning as operating in a high-stakes, multiparty, competitive game that is tempered by the need for cooperation. We discuss the roles planners must play as stewards of the public interest. Planners must mediate conflicts, build coalitions, and advocate the interests of underrepresented groups. They must be visionary by looking beyond immediate concerns to the needs of future generations, and must communicate these visions to inspire confidence in the reality of sustainable land use patterns.

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Management Association, the National Association of Homebuilders, and the Urban Land Institute. Its tenets are promoted by the Smart Growth Network (www.smartgrowth.org) and the Sustainable Communities Network (www.sustainable.org). ,. ~ ·~

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Compared to Smart Growth, New Urbanism is more architecturally prescriptive and detailed in specifying the physical layout of a community in which design, scale, land use mix, and street-network elements dominate (Calthorpe 1993; Calthorpe and Fulton 2001; Duany and Plater-Zyberk 1991; Duany, Plater-Zyberk, and Speck 2000). Its nonprofit organization-the Congress for the New Urbanism (CNU)-addresses the social cohesion and sense of place implications of urban design decisions. Members adopted a charter in 1996 (Leccese and McCormick 2000), which states: We stand for the restoration of existing urban centers and towns within coherent metropolitan regions, the reconfiguration of sprawling suburbs into communities of real neighborhoods and diverse districts, the conservation of natural environments, and the preservation of our built legacy. We recognize that physical solutions by themselves will not solve social and economic problems, but neither can economic vitality, community stability, and environmental health be sustained without a coherent and supportive physical framework. (v)

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Neighborhood groups sometimes include those who seek to prevent any new development, or at least prevent adjacent development at densities higher than theirs. The stopping power of these groups often creates local gridlocks. Terms such as "not in my backyard" (NIMBY), "local unwanted land uses" (LULU), "build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone" (BANANA) , among others, have become symbolic of neighborhood livability values. Citizen-participation planner Randy Hester sums up the state of affairs in the neighborhood-preservation movement since the 1980s by arguing that contemporary public participation can be characterized as self-interested, short-sighted, segregated along class and racial lines, legally sophisticated, and fearful (1999, 19). Although Hester's depiction is too extreme for most communities, local planning programs are well situated to break the barriers that create self-serving behavior. Planners can apply participatory urban design techniques to educate residents about urban forms that reflect the larger public interest necessary to help change the narrowly defined view of livability to a broader, more inclusive view. -Planners can also work to develop communication and consensus-building strategies across neighborhood groups and create cooperation and bring about plans that promote mutual benefit.

Coalitions of Land Use Values In the land use planning arena, distinct alliances (or coalitions) of groups may form when their values overlap. These coalitions are often in conflict. Two traditional adversaries are the "anti-growth" versus "pro-growth" coalitions. The "antigrowth" coalition consists of neighborhood associations dominated by homeowners who share an interest in the preservation of the rural character of urbanizing areas and in limiting development to achieve those ends. Their interest in limiting development is shared by environmental groups who seek protection of the ecological integrity of the landscape. The "pro-growth" coalition includes developers, land owners, and the building industry who share an interest in profits from the development of land. Their interest in promoting development is shared by downtown businesses, suburban businesses, and the chamber of commerce, who believe that development will bring new people who, in turn, will become their customers, promote their economic prosperity, and, indirectly, promote the prosperity of the community. A third alliance, the "social advocacy" coalition, is often an adversary to both the "anti-growth" and "pro-growth" coalitions. It consists of low-income groups and minority populations that share an interest in making the distribution of the benefits of a healthy living environment and economic development more equitable. Difficult issues must be tackled if conflicts associated with this coalition are to be resolved. A core issue for this coalition is how those at the bottom of society can find greater economic opportunity if environmen tal protection mandates diminish economic growth. Poor communities, for example, must frequently confront a no-win choice between economic survival and environmental quality when the only economic opportunities are landfills, waste incinerators, and polluting industrial plants that more affluent communities often oppose (Bryant 1995). In many cases, the poor communities consist mostly of minority populations, thus

23 raising the specter that environmental racism is an integral feature of conflicts associated with the "social advocacy" coalition. Planners must understand that the adversarial behavior assumption does not always hold. The relationships among diverse interest groups are often interdependent. For example, inner-city residents share an interest with suburban employers oflow-wage workers in having frequent transit service and close location of transit stops. Their interest in promoting mass transit is shared by environmental advocacy groups who want transit to reduce dependency on automobiles that generate considerable air pollution. The competitive orientation within the land planning arena is thus tempered with the need for cooperation. The task for planners in the land use game is to help communities build relationships by developing mutual trust and cooperation needed to improve overall game outcomes. To be acceptable and effective, land use plans must recognize and reconcile the pluralistic interests of other various stakeholder groups with those of markets. They must work to inspire and motivate groups to understand interdependencies and gain confidence in the reality of a common good or civic purpose. In The Spirit of Community, Amitai Etzioni speaks of building "social webs that bind individuals, who would otherwise be on their own, into groups of people who care for one another and who help maintain a civic, social, and moral order" (Etzioni 1993, 248). The "connectedness" within a place is the glue that binds social and natural communities. Planners should offer guidance to communities seeking to create and restore those elements of place that foster the social fabric of communities, including, for example: identifying buildings and natural landmarks of cultural importance to evoke a connection to the community's history; creating built environments that encourage spontaneous face-to-face interaction (e.g., pocket parks, pedestrian-oriented streets); encouraging public life in private places by encouraging spaces created by small businesses (-e.g~,Sidewalk cafes, taverns, and bookstores), not just corporate theme spaces like shopping malls and Disneyland; and improving opportunities for community participation among all groups in planning for a sustainable future.

The Land Use Planning Program This section focuses on the land use planning program, which is the central dimension in the land use game (see Figure 1-1). A local planning program serves three key functions: 1) planning support systems; 2) a network of plans; and 3) monitoring and evaluation. Because the focus of this book is on plan making and plans, the concepts and procedures for creating planning support systems and plans are emphasized. Part 2 (chapters 4 through 9) covers the key data input and analysis techniques for the demographic, economic, environmental, land use, transportation, and infrastructure components of a planning support system. Chapter 3 provides an overview of the network of plans and evaluation criteria to guide the creation of high-quality plans, and Part 3 (chapters 10 through 14) provides a detailed explanation of the concepts and sequence of tasks associated with preparing plans. Chapter 15 in Part 3 offers a general overview of the remaining two functions that address the daily work of planners in plan

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The Davis General Plan then includes a map that specifies "specific-plan areas." The "Core Area Specific Plan," for example, identifies detailed land use arrangements for each block in the downtown area. Although the Davis General Plan does not include a stan_d -alone development-management plan element, it offers a clear policy framework that gives clear guidance on the appropriate package of developmentm anagement tools that should be adopted for plan implementation. These tools are

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implementation efforts and ambient community conditions in order to update and adjust plans and implementation. That is, plan proposals consist of spatial designs, development-management programs, and monitoring programs.

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1) Issues and Vision Statement

Detailed identification of problems; clear vision statement; clear review of trends, opportunities, and threats

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specified a series of targets or benchmarks for each indicator, to be met at regular intervals until 2010. • Distributional, so as to measure both intergenerational and intragenerational equity.

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than a straight line (see Figure 5-2). It works like compound interest, which generates increased returns over the years in a savings account. The form of the geometric model is:

P,+n = P,( 1+ r( Where P,+n' P,, and n are as in the linear model, and r is the rate of growth per unit of time. The modified ex ponential model assumes smaller, not bigger, inc rements of absolute growth with time, implying that there is a ceiling that represents an upper limit. Growth becomes slowe r and slower as a locality approaches that limit. A graph would show a curve that is increasing a little less for each succeeding time period , becom ing less steep over time (see Figure 5-2). The form of this model is:

pt+n = K - [(K - P,)bn) Where P,+n• P,, and n are as before; K is the upper limit of population size for the study area, which the population approaches but never attains; b equals the constant ratio (less than one) of change by which (K - P,) is reduced each successive time unit from its value in the immediately preceding time unit. Thus, P,. n approaches K as n increases. Thus, the equation projects future population in terms of a constantly decreasing gap between the projected population and the population ceiling , K. The polynomial model of change permits the modeling of a growth pattern that has bends in it while the previous models do not (see Figure 5-2). The form for this model is: i

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The highest exponent indicates the degree of the polynomial. The linear model is a firstdegree polynomial. A second-degree polynomial describes a curve with one bend, either convex (if bi is negative) or concave (if bi is positive) . A second-degree polynomial could approximate the exponential or geometric curve, for example. A third-degree polynomial describes a curve that has two bends. The polynomial curve is less rigid in its form than any of the previously described models and can better describe less regular growth patterns and patterns that include both decline and growth, for example. On the oth er hand, the model often produces unreasonable numbers when projecting beyond a very short time frame.

Ratio/Share Ratio/share techniques establish a ratio of a study area characteristic, such as fertility rate, to that of its larger so-called parent region, or they establish the study area's share of the parent area population or employment. The forecast for the study area is calculated by multiplying the parent area forecast by that ratio or share. For example, if the present population of the study area is 10 percent of the parent region's population, this technique projects the future study area population as 10 percent of whatever future population level is projected for the parent region. Ratio/share techniques are not limited to projecting total population or employment or amount of change. They can be applied to population groups. For example, if parent area projections are available by age, sex, and/or ethnicity cohorts, the ratio/share technique can be applied to those particular cohorts to obtain a similar composition breakdown for the study area. In addition, ratios can be applied to

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other attributes of the population or economy, such as auto ownership or average size of households. Also, they can be applied to components of change, such as birth rates or economic multipliers, which are then used as inputs for more sophisticated models. The planner is not limited to using current ratios if they are changing systematically over time; they can be plotted over past time periods and then extrapolated into the future using one of the trend-extrapolation models described above. The ratio/share approach requires three things to produce valid results: • a reliable parent area projection or estimate, • stability in the historical ratio or in its trend, and • confidence that the study area is and will continue to be an integral part of the parent area. The ratio/share method is therefore inappropriate for a study area that differs economically or demographically from its parent area. In that case, the study area change is because of factors different from those determining the population and economy of the parent area. For example, ratio/share would be inappropriate for a rural area of an urban state or region, for an urban area of a rural state or region, or for a university town in a manufacturing region. Where the three requirements are met, the ratio/share approach has the advantage of simplicity and undemanding data requirements. Further, forecasts and estimates for parent areas, such as states and regions, are generally regarded as more reliable than those for smaller study areas because regional and state analysts have greater expertise, have access to better technology and better data, and are dealing with larger and therefore more easily projected populations and economies. The application of ratio/share to projecting employment is increasingly appropriate as the dependence of local economies upon their regional and national economy increases. This approach also benefits from the increasing availability of economic and population projections for the nation, the states, and larger regions that can serve as parent areas. For economic analysis, location quotients (LQs) constitute a ratio/share approach that assesses the local economic structure by comparing a particular industry's share of the local economy with that same industry's share of the national economy or regional economy. They thereby identify industries that are concentrated in the local economy or, conversely, those that are underrepresented. In a related approach even more suited to understanding change in the local economy, shift-share analysis divides the total change in employment in a particular industry for the study area into three components: • The national growth component; that is, the growth in that industry that is attributable to overall change in national employment. • The national industry shift, or industry mix component, which adjusts the expected growth in the industry to reflect the nation's shift in industrial mix toward a larger share or smaller share of the total economy for the particular industry relative to other industries. If the study region tends to concentrate its employment in industries that are growing faster than the

133 national all-industry rate, it will grow faster than the national all-industry growth rate; and vice versa. • The competitive shift component, or location advantage. The study area will have a competitive advantage in a particular industry if its employment in that industry is growing faster than that industry's employment nationally. Thus, shift-share analysis reveals which sectors of the local economy have competitive strengths within their own sector.

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Shift-share projection begins with the statement that future employment equals present employment plus growth in employment, i.e.: E;,r,1+1= E;,,,, + DeltaE;,r,t-1+1

Where E;,,,, is the employment level in industry i in study region rfor time t; similarly, E;,r,t+ l' except that the time is t+ 1. DeltaE;,r,t-t+l is the change in employment in industry i in region rfrom time tto time t+ 1 (say from 2010-2020) . Shift-share analysis divides DeltaE;,r,t-t+ l' the change in employment in industry i for study region r, into three components. The first component is the national growth component: the growth in industry i in region r attributable to overall change in national employment. This component of growth is the change industry i would experience if it equaled the rate of growth in total employment for the nation . The second component is called the national industry shift component, or industry mix component. It adjusts the expected growth in industry i in the study region to reflect the shift in industrial mix for the nation toward a larger share or smaller share of industry i relative to other industries. If industry iis growing faster than the economy as a whole, this factor is positive; if it is growing slower than the economy as a whole, the factor is negative. The third component, the competitive shift component, represents the region 's competitive advantage in industry i. It is attributable to the region's competitive position in that particular industry compared to other regions. The three components are expressed in the following form: DeltaE;,,,,_,. 1= E;,)En,1+1I En) - 1) (national growth component) + E;,,)(E;,n,t+l I E;,n) - (En.t+l I En) l (industry mix component) + aE;,,)(E;,r,,I E;,,, 1. 1) - (E;,n,, 1 E;,n,,_1)] (competitive shift component)

The subscripts are as before, except that the subscript n is added to indicate that the employment figure is for the nation. The coefficient a in the third component is a correction factor to adjust t for any differences in the length of the projection period, t to t+ 1, compared to the length of the past period, t- (t-1 ), on which the competitive advantage is calculated. If the two periods are the same length, a= 1.

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Evaluations of slope stability for land use planning purposes are often based on these factors, which can then be used for mapping, depending on the availability and reliability of data. Figure 6-5 illustrates an interpretive map of movement potential of undisturbed ground for the town of Portola Valley, California. The map is quite detailed, showing individual parcels at a scale of one inch to 500 feet, and was derived from aerial photos and detailed ground reconnaissance of geologic conditions immediately below the surface and bedrock. Figure 6-6 shows the legend of the map of movement potential of undisturbed ground that specifies four basic classifications of land stability from most to least stable, and the permissible uses by stability class: 1. Relatively stable ground (symbols Sbr, Sun, Sex);

2. Areas with significant potential for downslope movement of ground (symbols Sis, Ps); 3. Areas with potential surface rupturing and related ground displacements associated with active faulting (symbols Pmw, Ms, Pd, Psc, Md); and 4. Unstable ground characterized by seasonally active downslope movement

(symbol Pf). The town used the interpretive map to develop one of the first slope-density regulations in the United States. The town's plan established four categories of

156 residential land use in which gross acres per housing unit varied according to slope: 1. One house per acre on 1-15 percent slope;

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MOVEMENT POTENTIAL OF UNDISTURBED GROUND Town of Portola Valley Fig. 6-5

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157 unstable slopes. As planners in Seattle have demonstrated, simply mapping the slope areas that have a history of instability provides valuable information for land use planning purposes. Under a landslide hazard mitigation program started by the city after th e massive 1997 landslides along the Puget Sound, city planners and geotechnical staff have initiated a major inventory project to locate landslide events and potential slide areas. Figure 6-7 illustrates the first generation of these maps created by the city's GIS mapping sys tem. This map was used to develop unstable slop e ordinances that rely on several different approaches involving density limits based on slope inclination, soil instability, and the condition of forested cover, as well as administrative review in special study-zone designations of unstable slope areas. More technically precise maps based on detailed ground reconnaissance are being prepared to supplement the historical landslide maps. 1

FIG. 6-5 LEGEND Relatively Stable Ground

ISbr I Level ground to moderately steep slopes underlain by bedrock within approximately three feet of ground surface or less; relatively thin soil mantle may be subject to shallow landsliding, settlement, and soil creep.

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Areas with Significant Potential for Downslope Movement of Ground ~ Steep to very steep slopes generally underlain by weathered and fractured bedrock;

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IBJ Zone of potential permanent ground displacement within 100 feet of active fault trace . Unstable Ground Characterized by Seasonally Active Downslope Movement

I Ms I Moving shallow landslides, commonly less than 10 feet in thickness. I Md I Moving deep landslides, commonly more than 10 feet in thickness. Contacts between map units: solid where known, long dashes where approximate, short dashes where inferred, queried where probable. Source: Spangle Associates 1988. Reproduced by permission from Spangle Associates, Inc., Urban Planning and Research .

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Two types of EIA methods are discussed in this section. The first involves methods for aiding in the identification of impacts caused by a particular land use plan or development activity. They are designed to specify potential impacts that require further study and impacts that should not be given serious consideration. Three common techniques used for identifying impacts include the following: • Checklists were developed to help public agency staff review environmental impacts and assess change in environmental quality from a proposed land use. This entailed the development of checklists of impacts associated with different types of projects like highways, flood control, airports, residential development projects, range management, and forestry. Examples of various categories of impacts included in the checklist are decline in water quantity and water quality, and increased flooding, traffic congestion, and solid waste. • Impact matrices provide another technique for identifying impacts. The matrix contains a list of characteristics of a proposed development (e.g., impervious surface, daily number of vehicle trips, and annual volume of solid waste) and a list of characteristics of the proposed site and surroundings (e.g., infiltration capability of soil, capacity of roads, and capacity of landfill to receive additional solid waste) . The matrix is then used to identify interactions between characteristics of the development and the site and its surroundings. Answers to a checklist can be a first step in completing a matrix. • Flowcharts are also used to identify direct and indirect impacts of a proposed land use activity that are directly associated with the ultimate impact. For example, a new development that is spatially separated on the suburban fringe causes increased driving, which then causes increased levels of air pollutants. The checklist, matrix, and flowch art techniques provide a simple way to identify impacts associated with a given plan. Ortolano (1997, chapter 16) offers a detailed discussion of techniques for impact identification. Information of this sort suggests topics for further investigation through various types of forecasting. The second type of EIA method involves estimating how proposed plans and development projects affect the environment. Since the 1970s, environmental analysts have attempted to synthesize and categorize forecasting methods from different fields like sociology, biology, geology, and civil engineering for purposes ofland use planning. Even for a single project or land use plan proposal, multiple forecasting methods are often used. This reflects the diversity of topics treated in conducting EIAs and the wide range of methods available for conducting an assessment related to any one topic. Planners seek to learn what differences plans make, although the methods used vary from simple visual comparisons to elaborate modeling analyses. In selecting an effective evaluation method, planners must consider several criteria: 1) appropriateness for a different planning purposes; 2) credibility of outcomes regarding consistent and accurate results; 3) feasibility of application in terms of the required level of skill and resources; and 4) ease to comprehend how well the method

187

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· Visual assessment entails judging the visual impacts of alternative plans. This category of methods is appropriate in the concept design stage ofland use planning. If alternative plan schemes are prepared at the same scale, then visual comparisons should be effective in conveying the major differences that result from applying a particular design principle, such as visual impacts of a pedestrian- versus auto-oriented design of a development, or alternative policies that require clustered development versus conventional development. Visual images of plans and development proposals range from simple perspective sketches to digital image processing that entails modification of attributes of images that are altered based on alternative design policies (tree-planting schemes; road location and design; and building height, setback, and massing requirements). Even more advanced interactive land use schemes that entail walk- or drive-throughs and simulate movement through three-dimensional environments are available. • Numerical indicators present tabulations of outcomes that are used to gauge the extent to which goals are achieved. They can be used to compare outcomes of alternative plans and development proposals. Indicators extend from checklists to include measures of the impacts included in the checklist. · Single-function models display the interactions among factors related to a particular activity or function. They are based on scientific laws and empirical studies to predict environmental impacts. Fate and transport models, for example, predict the transformation and distribution of contaminants introduced into air- and watersheds. These models also estimate the impacts of concentrations of contaminants on plants and animals, as well as consider the nature of exposure to pollutants, the dose of pollutants ingested, and the resulting impacts on human health. Hydrologic simulation models are used to analyze how proposed changes in land use influence flood flows. A typical analysis determines how particular rainfall events are converted to surface runoff under different land use development scenarios within the watershed. Noise-impact assessment is based on acoustical laws that guide the development of mathematical models that assess potential future decibel levels. Forecasts of noise are frequently undertaken to assess the level of noise generated by construction activities, highways, and airports. · Linked models integrate multiple single-function models into a coordinated system, where the outputs of one model may become the inputs of another. This type of model extends from the flowchart technique for identifying direct and indirect impacts by including empirical measures of impacts. For example, a linked model might include transportation, land use, and air quality. Outputs of the transportation and land use models would become inputs to the air quality model, which could then feed back into the land use model. Linked models are effective for comprehensive evaluations of land use plans and development proposals if the factors and relationships

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U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2002. Retrieved from http://ecos.fws.gov/tess/html/ boxscore.html, accessed October 22, 2002. U.S. Geological Survey. 2003a. USGS landslide. Retrieved from http://landslides.usgs.gov/ html_files/landslides/slides/slide21.htm, accessed December 10, 2003. U.S. Geological Survey. 2003b. USGS topomaps. Retrieved from http://mcmcweb.er. usgs.gov/topomaps/, accessed November 9, 2003. U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service. 2003. Standard Digital Map. Retrieved from http://www.flw.nrcs. usda.gov/ssurgo_ftp3.html, accessed August 10, 2003. Ward, A. L., N. E. Fornwalt, S. E. Henry, and R. A. Hondroff. 1980. Effects of highway operation practices and facilities on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn antelope. U.S. Federal Highway Office Research and Development report. Washington, D.C.: FHWA-RD- 79-143. Wa ter Resources Management Program. 1992. Urban wetlands in the Yahara-Mona watershed: Functional classification and management alternatives. Madison, Wis.: University of Wisconsin-Madison. Wilcox, D.S., C.H. McLellan, and A. P. Dobson. 1986. Habitat fragmentation in the temperate zone. In Conservation biology: The science and scarcity of diversity, M. Soule, ed. Sunderland, Mass.: Sunaur. William Spangle and Associates, Inc. 1988. Geology and planning: The Portola Valley experience. Portola Valley, Calif.: Author.

•

Chapter 7

Land Use Systems In preparation for the development of a new community plan, you are asked to gather and analyze information on existing and future land use. This should include estimates of the location, amount, and availability of land needed to accommodate the community's projected twenty-year population growth. You need to understand the forces that are causing land use change, update the existing land use inventory and maps, update the inventory of the supply of developable land, and analyze the balance between the supply of developable land and the projected development demand. To assist the community in developing future land use scenarios and visions, it would be helpful to summarize your findings in terms of indicators that describe current and projected land use patterns, needs, issues, and planning problems. What should you do to carry out this assignment?

he difficulty of getting a handle on existing and future land use varies with the dynamics of community growth and development. In a small town with a relatively stable land use pattern and slow projected population growth, the task is less difficult since the existing land use system is expected to change only incrementally-absent some major new urban form determinant, such as a freeway extension or creation of a natural park. However, in a metropolitan area with high projected population growth and uncertain development dynamics, the task is more challenging since the drivers of land use change are more complex, interrelated, and unpredictable. Thanks to major advances in development of geographic information systems (GIS) and planning support systems (PSS) , the contemporary planner has unparalleled access to land use information and analytical tools. 1 The deluge of new databases and software packages can be confusing, however, and there is a

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Total enrollment, by school levels, is then distributed to geographic areas, based on the population distribution implied in the land use design for residential areas. This approach is satisfactory for designing the pattern of school sites in the general land use plan but should be adjusted later in more detailed studies for more detailed school planning and capital improvement programming. The result of this step is a spatial distribution of demand for school space by grade level. In the next step, the inventory of existing school locations is examined with respect to their capacity, condition, and accessibility for the distribution of projected future school enrollment. The planner must assess the potential for expanding and otherwise adapting existing school buildings and sites and also assess the availability and suitability of vacant or renewable land for new sites. Location and space requirements are applied, including acceptable walking and bussing radiuses, minimum site-size standards or guidelines, and number of sites required. On the basis of those considerations and basic goals, the planner designs a pattern of school sites, including specification of existing sites to be retained, enlarged, or otherwise modified or abandoned, as well as new sites. School sites to be abandoned become potential sites for other uses.

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Summary This chapter presented key information that planners should have regarding community facilities. This information is summarized below: • Location and capacity of existing infrastructure • Demand for current infrastructure • Areas with excess infrastructure capacity • Areas with existing and emerging deficient infrastructure • Areas with rapid growth and high demand for infrastructure capacity • Current pricing for infrastructure services • Timing and magnitude of planned infrastructure improvements • Potential of planned infrastructure improvements/expansions to attract additional land development or to meet implicit demands in land use plans • Strategies to address excess capacity and to manage capacity shortages • Population subgroups with poor or substandard access to community facilities or services • Population subgroups bearing negative impacts of current infrastructure or its use • Areas where current and planned infrastructure or its use has or will result in impacts to the physical environment (for example to air or water quality). Although planners usually do not build or directly control community facilities, planners' actions influence the timing and location of demand for these faci lities. As such, planners should maintain up-to -date information on the demand, remaining capacity, and service that each facility provides. Because community facilities not

259 only satisfy existing demand for public services but also enhance the attractiveness of areas for development and require large one-time investments, they tend to be major forces in the land planning game. We argued that connecting the planning for community facilities with land planning was a rational use of com munity resources and helped in managing a community's development. Nowhere is the need for coordination between land use planning and community facilities more evident than with transportation facilities . Consistent with the view that people travel to get to destinations, we suggested that planners use accessibility indicators to complement prevailing mobility indicators to inventory current transportation conditions in a community. Access ibility indicators connect transportation infrastructure with the land use system. Furthermore, such indicators are useful for examining who wins and who loses under alternative development and policy scenarios. Information for accessibility indicators come from standard geographic information systems, as well as from the intermediate steps of the four-step travel forecasting method. For travel fore casting, we summarized trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and assignment steps. We emphasized current challenges and assumptions that planners should consider to be an informed consumer of transportation planning results. Finally, consistent with the literature on good plans, we suggested guidelines for including transportation infrastructure information in a land use plan's fact and information base. For water, sewerage, and school infrastructure, we suggested the use of indicators of the quality of service and information conveying how supply and demand for these services vary in space. The plan should include a summary of facilitygrowth plans, extension policies, and financing programs. Such information is commonly available as part of a capital improvement program, but the purpose is to bring it together in a coordinated fashion in the plan. Compiling this information requires gathering data from the units responsible for the facilities, which include authorities, service districts, and nongovernmental organizations such as private and nonprofit entities. In planning for future demand based on forecasted growth and particular development scenarios, we suggested the use of per capita multipliers to complement the information contained in the future land design. Furthermore, we highlighted important tradeoffs that planners face frequently: centralized sewerage service versus septic tanks or community package plants; a centralized water-treatment plant versus multip le plants; and large schools versus neighborhood schools. These tradeoffs influence and are influenced by the pattern of land development, and thus are important players in the plan-making process. The infrastructure information suggested in this chapter enables the identification of locations where the plan will allow or encourage land development and other locations where development is to be avoided. Coupled with population and economic forecasts, environmental priorities, and land use constraints and opportunities, information on the infrastructure system helps planners to understand the dynamics of current and future growth and to communicate existing needs to the community.

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Preparing the State of Community Report Preparation of the State of Community Report accomplishes two important planning tasks: (1) aggregate and analyze strategic intelligence findings from the individual planning support systems and, (2) integrate these findings with community-based information and involvement to build consensus for plan making. These tasks follow parallel and interconnected tracks, one more analytical or "left brain" and one more process-oriented or "right brain" (Figure 9-1 ). To be effective, the tracks must be designed to be interactive, with each providing invaluable inputs to the other. The information analysis track aggregates the key findings from the planning support systems and identifies their meanings and implications for community development and planning. Although each individual planning support system necessarily has a functional focus, the aggregated analysis links the individual findings into a more holistic and comprehensive framework. It identifies communitywide issues and concerns, and begins to build alternative scenarios for future community development.

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State of Community Report preparation process.

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The consensus-building track designs and implements a program of activities, events, and institutional arrangements for involving and informing community stakeholders, decision makers, and the general public. As part of its mission, it provides information, issues, and scenarios from the information analysis track to participants for their review, critique, and refinement. It assists participants in testing future community development scenarios and creating sustainable development visions. It builds a reservoir of community-participation social capital for use in later stages of the planning process. The State of Community Report summarizes key findings from planning support system analyses and community-participation activities. The report combines facts and values. It is prepared in a format that is accessible to citizens and decision makers. It is designed to provide guidance to the plan-making process, in the form of issues, scenarios, and visions that have been reviewed and tested by stakeholders and publics. As new information or understandings arise during the course of the plan-making process, the report is revised to reflect the latest state of community knowledge. Although it may be easier to think of participation and information as two separate elements of plan making, in practice they are closely related. Not only do citizen participants bring in common knowledge and historical insights, but also the information-capturing agenda is shaped in part by participants' concerns. The traditional separation of public participation from staff analysis and data crunching is bridged in collaborative planning. Hanna (2000) captures the subtle interaction between information and participation: The relationship between participation and information centers on the nature of participation. The crucial questions are: Who is participating in the process and how? Participation helps shape information devel opment. Its influence is synergistic. Participation not only facilitates the additions to the planning process of new information and new interpretations of existing data; it also diffuses knowledge to those who may be peripheral players in the process (agency or non-agency actors). Hence it is difficult to measure the success of participation. Preparing and analyzing data, interacting with non -agency players, and presenting information to the public can be transformative actionseven though their impact may not be explicit. Information is a key component of consensus building ... .The process of developing and agreeing on information is a critical part of embedding the influence of information on individual and institutional understanding . ... (401)

Aggregating Key Findings Every community has a unique set of conditions, problems, and prospects de rived from its history, geography, and politics. Thus, the process of aggregating the key findings from the individual information systems needs to be responsive to the unique aspects of the particular community. However, planners can use generic techniques of issue identification and scenario construction to outline and tell the planning stories of their localities.

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Issue Identification Identifying issues is done by scanning planning intelligence to locate matters in dispute, unresolved problems, or points of debate or controversies. If judged to be sufficiently important, these issues are placed on the community-needs agenda to be dealt with during plan making. For example, in the Denver Comprehensive Plan 2000, the following land use issues were identified (City and County of Denver 2000, 2002): A disconnect between land use and transportation, with growing traffic congestion and travel miles, adjacent commercial and residential developments that do not fit together, and unpleasant and unsafe walking areas along streets that discourage access to transit stops. • A zoning code, adopted in 1956, that is outdated, overly complex and difficult to administer, with a number of outdated restrictions on land use, conflicting development standards, and a lack of basic design standards. In preparing the follow-up plan, Blueprint Denver, the planners and citizens of Denver focused on resolving these issues. The Blueprint Denver plan's subtitle is Land Use and Transportation Plan, and it lays the foundations for a major revision and updating of the zoning ordinance. Under the new strategy, future growth is directed to designated areas of change and away from designated areas of stability. Another example of issue identification is found in the debate about the meanings of California's demographic future (Myers 2001). State projections forecast an increase of 15.5 million Californians between 1990 and 2020- a 50 percent increase in population. Latinos are expected to comprise 65.7 percent of this growth. Does this mean that compact cities will be more popular, since Latino lifestyles are compatible with compact cities? Myers (2001) describes four alternative versions of the impact of California's demographic future on urban development patterns, depending on whether Latino economic polarization or assimilation and upward mobility are assumed. He suggests that planners do not need to choose the one right story, but must be aware of the different stories about population change and the planning issues involved in them.

Scenario Construction A scenario is a set of reasonably plausible but structurally different futures (Avin and Dembner 2001). Asking what might happen requires the community to uncover and cope with forces driving change. Scenarios should contain an integrated, consistent storyline, telling how change can occur under feasible circumstances. They should distinguish between predetermined givens and potentially changing uncertainties. They are created based on driving forces: society, technology, environment, politics, and economics. Scenarios are most applicable in situations where significant change is likely, outcomes are not obvious, and the time frame is medium to long term (ten to twenty-plus years). In the contemporary planning process, forecasting the future is not simply an analytic process. The idea that there is a single unitary future has been superceded by the notion that a community can act to modify its future. As Wachs (2001) asserts:

269 Rather than thinking of a forecast as a defin ed and invariant input upon which to base a plan, it is far more realistic to see it as an enumeration of the consequences of a particular set of assumptions that can be varied to reflect the competin g interests of contending parties. The future is not a single grand vision or an inevitable consequence of trends, but rather an object of manipulation, di scussion, debate, and eventually, perhaps, even co nsensus (3 71-72 ).

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Scenarios ca n be used in the planning process to compare possible futures ("What might happen?") and desired futures ("What do yo u want to happen? ") Two parallel processes are involved (Avin and Dembner 2001 ). One is obj ective and analytical, setting limits on the range of possible futures. The other is subjective and participatory, reflectin g the desires of various interest groups. Goals are not identified up front to drive the process. Instead, issue identificati on is do ne early to help establish evaluation criteria fo r the scenarios. Ideally, evaluation should include fiscal testing. The process assum es that stakehold ers may modify their beliefs and demands when they are shown an an alysis of the outcomes of their fa vorite futures. Even if they do not reach consensus, the process clarifies choices. In Queen Anne's Co unty, Maryland, planners compared future scenario-based infrastructure investm ents with historical investments to highlight the differential costs of m odest and enhanced investments under a trend growth rate of 400 dwelling units per year and an accelerated growth rate of 600 dwellin g units per year. This allowed the co unty commission to assess the impacts of aggressively implementing the co unty's Smart Growth policy, in terms of the necessary tax increases (Figure 9-2 ).

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A scenario-building process that recognizes the important linkages between analys is and citizen participation is illustrated in Figure 9-3. Analysis proceeds along th e top hori zontal axis, in orde r to identify possible futures. Participation proceeds in parallel along th e bottom horizontal axis, in order to assist participants in producing their desired futures . Possible and des ired futures are then compared and evaluated and tradeoffs are made, on the way to developing the preferred plan and policies. Scenarios can be built step-by-step from the data, an overall framework can be created and used to sort the evidence, or the planner can start from the official future and explore variations. It is important to quantify the outcomes, when possible, in order to test them and to explain their fiscal impacts. Another use of scenarios is illustrated in Blueprint Denver (City and County of Denver 2002, 27), which compared the distributi on of household and employment growth under the present zoning versus the distribution under the Blueprint Denver plan. Here, quantifi ed outcomes are used to compare the plan alternative with the current official future as specified by the existing zoning ord inance (Table 9-1 ). Under the Blueprint Denver strategy, a substantial amount of new housing and employm ent growth is funneled away from stable neighborhoods (areas of stability) to downtown and to areas where development or redevelopment can best be accommodated because of transportation choices and opportunities for mixed-use development (areas of change). Note that the overall totals remain the same; only the distribution is changed. In this case, the alternative scenario is used to illustrate the land use logic of the Blueprint Denver strategy.

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Components Produced by Stage of the Plan-making Process Stage 1: State of Community Report

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Current Conditions and Emerging Trends Local Ordinance Review Threats, Opportunities, and Issues Scenarios and Vision Statement

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Areawide Land Policy Plan Communitywide Land Use Design Plan Small-area (or Specific) Plan Development-management Plan Stage 4: Monitoring and Evaluation Program

1. A description of issues, current conditions, and emerging trends likely to

impact the forthcoming planning period; 2. A review of the adequacy of current local development-management ordinances; 3. Alternative scenarios for future development; and 4. Visions for the desired future based on expressed community values and images of the evolving community. Because advance planning is future-oriented, projected or possible future scenarios can be used to compare possible futures about what might happen, and desired futures about what the community wants to happen. Vision statements can be based on the fact base derived from desirable and plausible scenarios. Thus, planners may also choose to include in the State of Community Report an assessment and description of alternative scenarios of plausible future outcomes, and a vision statement that identifies the values and overall image of what the community wants to be. The State of Community Report should combine technical with participatory approaches (see chapter 9). The technical forecasting approach requires the plan ner to explore and interpret conditions and relationships revealed in the planning support system (see chapters 4-8 ). The planner acts as an independent analyst who identifies, clarifies, and quantifies existing and emerging conditions. The planner in this role is the scientific prophet who calls attention to the facts about current conditions, trends, and likely future conditions. These facts serve as inputs to

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Correspondingly, for the regional commercial activity centers, projected trade area population, projected retail sales, and employment in particular sectors of the economy are the usual basis for space requirements. Those indicators are also used for community facilities (e.g., population is the basis of demand for future recreational facilities).

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The previous four tasks are analytic. The fifth task requires inventing alternative desirable land use, transportation, and community-facility patterns to accommodate the desired future population and employment while satisfying location prin ciples, implications of suitability maps, space requirements, and holding capacities. Typically the planner explores numerous design schemes and analysis scenarios. Quantitative and qualitative factors are balanced. Land use, transportation, water, and sewer plans are coordinated in pursuit of the livability, efficiency, environmental, and equity values derived from the sustainability prism. Design ideas are tested by comparing the acres required for a use in suitable locations in a scenario or alternative land use/transportation design scheme against the holding capacity ofland in those locations. As land is tentatively allocated to a use, it must be deducted from the holding capacity available for other uses in that area, since the same location cannot be used by two different land uses unless one accounts for mixed uses. A sort of spatial accounting system is maintained on working maps and tables. These are discussed in detail in the following chapters. If deficiencies in land supply are encountered, some of the land allocated to other uses earlier in the process, but suitable for a use being allocated later, might be reallocated to the new use and alternate locations found for the earlier allocated use. Shortages of suitable land might cause the planner to relax the standards of suitability, raise future densities, expand the planning area, or reduce the future level of population and employment that can be accommodated. Generally, however, the limits of the planning study area are drawn sufficiently large initially so that the balancing operation shows a surplus rather than a shortage of suitable land. Such a surplus is expected and is not a cause for reducing the planning area unless it taxes the data-management capacities of the planning agency or exceeds the political reach of the local government for whom the planning is being done. We again note that the land use design incorporates the design of a corresponding transportation system as part of what becomes an urban spatial structure design. Thus, the design is actually a land use/transportation design that incorporates transportation into the design of a future urban form. Land use design is used to solve transportation requirements and transportation solutions support specific urban land use design proposals. A more systematic analysis of trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, and assignment of trips along the multimodal transportation network that is involved in transportation planning and engineering would follow later, after the community achieves commitment to this joint land use and transportation design for the urban form. In fact, those four steps are similar to the combination of tasks 3, 4, and 5 above, estimating demand implied by the future population and schematic design and allocating it to the schematic design within the constraints of the estimated holding capacities. The reader is referred to the dis cussion of integrated land use and transportation planning in chapter 8.

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Progression of Attention among Land Uses in the Design Process

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To avoid the complexity of dealing with all land classes or land uses at the same time, we suggest that the planner separate land uses into several broad categories. The initial two-category distinction is made in an areawide design that distinguishes open space uses such as conservation, agriculture, forestry, and regional recreation from the broad category of general urban uses. Then within the "urban use category," th e communitywide land use design addresses the distinction between the regional activity centers (for employment, retail activity, and large-scale community facilities) and residential areas, including housing and local-scale community faci lities. The focus on distinguishing open space from urban uses because basic land policy in the areawide plan is followed up by the more explicit attention to the pattern of activity centers and residential habitats in the communitywide land use design. The planner must pay attention to the overall design during this process. As the plans are refined, the planner will further disaggregate the broad categories. For example, there might be several types of employment centers and retail centers with different location and space requirements. The location of future open space, or "non urban" space, is recommended as the first step in the land use design process. This broad category should include lands that contain environmental processes (e.g., wetlands that foster nutrient filtering and flood mitigation), hazardous areas (e.g., floodplains, earthquake fault lines), resource production (e.g., prime agricultural land or gravel deposits), cultural resources (e.g., historic sites), regional outdoor recreation sites, and areas that serve aesthetic purposes (e.g., defining the edges of neighborhoods or providing foregrou nd for a skyline view). There are several reasons for beginning land use plan making with an initial design for open space. First, many open space requirements can be expressed in terms of physical characteristics that already exist and are mapped in the planning information system. By contrast, location requirements for human activities are highly interdependent and partially determined by where future employment, commercial, and residential areas will be located during the plan-making process. Second, location requirements for natural processes are less flexible than many of the requirements for urban uses; natural processes must occur where conditions permit and they are not viable in other locations. Third, technical, after-the-fact solutions to environmental and natural-hazard problems are becoming increasingly costly and inefficient. It is wiser to anticipate and avoid such problems through land use design. Finally, the market-oriented urban-development process does not provide sufficient open space in the right locations for environmental and recreational purposes. Thus open space, particularly open space for natural processes, is vulnerable in the market-oriented urban-development process and in a human values-oriented and economy-oriented planning process. After formulating a tentative design for the pattern of open space uses, the planner normally moves to the task of delineating those areas where new urban development should be encouraged. For the areawide land policy plan, these are

311

the "urban" areas, including "developed urban" as well as "urban transition" (to be developed in the future) areas, and perhaps satellite rural community areas. The next level of consideration for land use categories is then addressed in the format of a communitywide land use design. The planner shifts focus first to formulating a regional or communitywide spatial structure of urban activity centers and facilities such as centers for industrial and office employment; regional commercial activity centers comprised primarily of retail and population-serving office uses; and regional facilities such as airport, waste-treatment storage and treatment, colleges, medical centers, and the like. After devising alternative scenarios for regional and communitywide activity centers and facilities, we recommend the planner designate locations for residential communities, including mixed-use communities. This step includes space for local shopping and recreational facilities, elementary schools and other local resident-serving facilities, circulation, smaller-scale open-space uses, and possibly smaller-scale office and other employment sites in addition to the main landusing category of housing. Of course, some residential uses could be located in the commercial activity centers. The land use plan -making process is not a simple linear process, and considerable backtracking and adjustments need to be made both within and between these major categories of land using activities. It is an iterative process. All land use design allocations are initially tentative, subject to adjustments as adverse implications or further opportunities emerge in the design process. Table 10-2 summarizes the usual order of consideration for the major categories of land use in plan making.

Summary Both areawide land policy plans and communitywide land use design plans require a similar sequence of stages. They include setting a proper foundation for making a plan and specifying its purpose and scope; specifying the plan format; executing a balanced sequence of land and land use analysis and design tasks; and finally creating a design that balances the many needs and desires of the community. Setting the foundation involves working with the community to clarify the purposes of the plan, to establish a plan-making organization and process, and to create a commitment to adopting, implementing, monitoring, and updating the plan. It also involves specifying the plans' scope and focus in content, and the geographic planning area to accommodate the long-range time horizon. Specifying the plan format or formats involves choosing and mixing among plan types. It also includes specifying the components of the plan and their organization into a comprehensible, persuasive, and useful guide to the community's future development. The actual plan-making process involves a somewhat complex methodology involving both analysis and design tasks-deriving location principles, creating land use suitability maps, analyzing future space requirements, analyzing holding capacity of suitable lands and possible design alternatives, and designing spatial arrangements that balance those considerations. The analytic tasks include formulating

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Table 10-2 Recommended Order of Consideration for Categories of Land Uses in Plan Making

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Open Space Uses Emphasis is on protecting critical environmental processes and also avoiding natural hazards, protecting economic natural resources such as agricultural and forestry land, providing regional outdoor recreation, and aesthetic purposes .

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Land for General Urban Uses Emphasis is on delineating the area where policy should encourage new development, redevelopment, and major infrastructure investment over the next ten to twenty years.

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Regional Activity Centers and Facilities (within the "urban" use area) A. Employment centers and districts 1. Manufacturing and related activities 2 Wholesaling and related uses 3. Office employment centers 4. Others particular to the area (e.g., research park or resort development) B. Regional commercial centers (mainly retail and services) 1. Central business district(s) 2. Satellite centers-older business centers, newer regional shopping centers, and multifunctional centers 3. Highway-oriented centers 4. Others, particular to the area (e .g ., urban-oriented tourism) C. Regional recreational, educational , and cultural facilities D. Regional transportation (transit, highways, airport, trains, intermodal connections)

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The Areawide Land Policy Plan Building on the foundation of issues, scenarios, and visions from your community report and the goals and policies from your direction-setting framework, you are now asked to formulate an areawide land policy plan for your regional planning agency. The plan should be spatially explicit; that is, it should include a map of land policy districts that specify areas where urban development and redevelopment will be encouraged, as well as other areas where development will be discouraged in order to protect environmental resources and productive agricultural lands. The plan should specify the district-specific public policies that will be applied to those districts. It should incorporate water and sewer service planning considerations, regional transportation planning considerations, and land market dynamics. The plan should provide sufficient space in suitable locations to accommodate the population and economic and environmental parameters that are determined in the community report.

et us assume that the planning agency and community have completed a State of Community Report and vision statement as stage 1 and a direction-setting framework of goals and general policies as stage 2 of the planmaking process described in chapter 10. The task in stage 3 is to formulate a network of plans that add specificity to the issues, vision, goals, policy guidelines, and preferred scenarios emerging from stages 1 and 2. The plans must also be cognizant of the land market and broader land use game and its many stakeholders, and continue the collaborative planning process outlined in chapter 9, following through on preferred scenarios developed in the State of Community Report. This chapter discusses the areawide land policy plan, the first of the several types of plans in that network. Chapters 12 and 13 discuss the communitywide land use 315

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The five-task land use design procedure outlined in Figure 10-1 in the preceding chapter is modified slightly in the case of open -space allocation. First, prior to the first step in the five-step process, the planner must determine the purposes to be served by each of several open-space classifications; they are not necessarily as obvious as for other land uses. Second, space requirements and holding capacity analyses (tasks 3 and 4) do not apply to the same degree for open-space as for urban uses. As a result, the sequence of tasks in delineating the conservation classifications in the areawide land policy plan, or the open -space uses in th e communitywide urban land use design, is as follows: • Predesign Task: Determine the purposes to be served and the human uses that are compatible with those purposes by each conservation (open-space) classification to be utilized in the plan. • Task 1: For each open-space purpose, formulate location principles and standards, including specification of human uses consistent with the openspace purpose. • Task 2: Map areas suitable for each open-space purpose by analyzing the land supply with respect to characteristics relevant to the principles and standards developed in task l. • Task 3: Where a minimum-size parcel is required for a particular openspace category, formulate minimum size standards (estimating a required total amount of space, however, does not apply for most open-space purposes). • Task 4: Analyze the holding capacity of suitable lands and trial open-space designations, based on the size, shape, and other characteristics necessary to achieve the open-space purpose. • Task 5: Make trial allocations of land to open space; i.e., design an openspace system. These steps are accomplished for each open-space category, one at a time, but are conscious of land that can serve multiple open-space conservation purposes. The results should be regarded as "trial" allocations because the planner may reallocate some of the space to urban uses later in the plan-making process.

Predesign Task: Determining the Purposes of the Open-space Conservation Classifications Open space is not a single land use but rather a broad sector of land uses. As an initial step in plan making, it is useful to classify open-space categories on the basis of the major purposes being served at particular locations. For example, the

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References Anderson , La rz. 2000. Pl111111i11g the built e11l'iro11111e11t. Chicago, Ill.: Planners Press. Arendt, Randall. 2004. Crossronds, h11111let, vi/Inge, to1v11 : Design chnracteristics of traditional neighborhoods old anrl 11 e\\I, rev. ed . PAS Repo rt Number 523 /524. Chicago, Ill.: American Planning Association. Barnett, Jonathan . 1982. An introdu ction to 1irb1111 design . New Yo rk: Harper and Rowe. Barn ett, Jonathan. 2003. Redesigning cities: Prin ciples, practice, implementatio n. Chicago, Ill.: Plann ers Press, Amer ican Planning Association. Brower, Sid ney N. 1996. Good neighborhoods: A study of i11 -to 1vn nnrl s11b11rb1111 residential environments. \i\Testport, Conn. : Praeger. Calthorpe, Peter, and Associates. 1990. Transit-oriented design guidelines. Final public review draft, September 1990. Sac ramento, Calif. : Sacramento County Planning and Community Development Department. Calthorpe, Peter, and William Fu lton. 2001. The regional city. Washington, D.C. : Island Press. City of Seattle. 1994, am ended through December 2002. Seattle's comprehensive plan: Toward a sustainable Seattle: A plan for managing growth 1994-20 13. Seattle, Wash .: Department of Design, Co nstruction and Land Use. Cervera, Robert B. 1998. The transit metropolis: A global inquiry. Washington D.C.: Island Press. Cou ncil of Education Facility Plann ers, International. 199 1. Guide for planning educational facilities. Columbus, O hio: Auth or. DeChiara, Joseph, and Lee Koppelman . 1982. Urban planning and design criteria, 3rd ed. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold. DeChiara, Joseph, Julius Panero, and Martin Zelnik. 1995. Time saver standards for housing and residential developm ent, 2n d ed . New York: McGraw-Hill. Duany, Andres, and Emily Ta len . 2002. Transect planning. journal of the American Plan ning Association 68 ( 3) : 245 -66. Eisner, Simon, Arthur Gallion, and Stanley Eisner. 1993. Th e urban pattern: City planning and design, 6th ed . New Yo rk: Va n Nostrand Reinhold.

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2. Introduction a. Purpose and scope of the plan b. Planning process-partnerships, consulting team, citizens-advisory board c. History of the community d . Wider community context-location, surrounding areas, market area, transportat io n e. How the plan is used f. Relat ionship to the comprehensive plan and other plans 3. Issues and vision a. Maj o r questions and issues b. Vis io n: images of the future-key features (mobility, linkages, service levels, etc .) c. Goals and objectives d. Guiding prin ciples-social equity, environmental responsibility, economic opportunity, livability, physi cal design, implementation 4. Exist ing and emergi ng conditions , threats and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. i. j.

The environment Demography and social cond itions Local economic base Land use and structures Property ownership Circulation Infrastructure Community fac ilities and serv ices Urban design features and resources Analysis of situation and identification of issues

5. Development plan a. Physi cal structuring elements-land use, urban design and streetscape, open space and parks, transportation and circulation; community facilities and services b. Social and economic initiatives- jobs and employment, safety c. Development management-regulatory and market mechanisms, redevelopment management structure, phasing strategy, early act ion items; responsibilities, timelines , provisions for monitoring, evaluating, updating

for a commercial area or downtown). They usually employ a neighborhoo d par ticipatory planning process that is separate fro m the process used in crea ting the communitywide, comprehensive, policy-oriented plan . Because of the nature of the process, the relatively small size of the area, and the fact that it is already sub stantially developed, neighborhood plans often focuses on high- visibility problems and specific physical design proposals. They also emphasize a shorter-range

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430 action program, something in the order of two years, and include actions to be taken by nongovernmental organizations as well as governmental agencies. In fact, this type of plan is sometimes called a neighborhood empowerment plan. More explicitly, a neighborhood plan might typically include:

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• Establishing an understanding about the purposes of the plan

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• Establishing the scope and content focus of the plan

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• Delineating an appropriate planning area • Defining connections to other plans and programs •

Making a planning process flowchart or work program

• Identifying an initial working version of issues and vision statement 2. Describing the State of the Small Area • Small-area history • Population • Economy •

Natural environmental features

• Land use • Community facilities and infrastructure • Transportation/circulation/pedestrian access • Urban design features, resources, problems • Assessment of existing plans, policies, ordinances 3. Refining the Direction-setting Framework 4. Formulating the plan • Creating a concept plan • Creating a concept structure plan - Land use elements-activity centers, residential areas, special districts, open space - Transportation elements - Greenways and open-space network - Urban design elements • Creating an implementation plan 5. Adopting and consistently implementing the plan

shows how Seattle integrates participation techniques for co nse nsus building and urban design into its appro ach. See also chapter 9 on "the community report" above, particularly the sections on the consensus b uilding track for analyzing data fro m the plann ing information system, b uilding co mmunity consensus, planning collaboratively, analyzing stakeholder pattern s and interests, testing scenari os, setting goals, visioning, and revising plans. See also Jones ( 1990, chapter 2 on "Democratic Neighborhood Plannin g") .

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• Spatial locations of affected uses (e.g., boundaries of districts, locations of public investments, etc.) • Timing of development (e.g., concurrency of development and supporting public facilities, rate of growth ordinance, etc.) • Cost and financing sources for public facilities (e.g., roads, schools, parks, utilities, etc.) • Design standards and review processes (e.g., integration ofland use and transportation, design review committee, etc.)

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