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Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change

ASPECTS OF TOURISM Series Editors: Professor Chris Cooper, University of Queensland, Australia Dr C. Michael Hall, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand Dr Dallen Timothy, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA Aspects of Tourism is an innovative, multifaceted series which will comprise authoritative reference handbooks on global tourism regions, research volumes, texts and monographs. It is designed to provide readers with the latest thinking on tourism world-wide and in so doing will push back the frontiers of tourism knowledge. The series will also introduce a new generation of international tourism authors, writing on leading edge topics. The volumes will be readable and user-friendly, providing accessible sources for further research. The list will be underpinned by an annual authoritative tourism research volume. Books in the series will be commissioned that probe the relationship between tourism and cognate subject areas such as strategy, development, retailing, sport and environmental studies. The publisher and series editors welcome proposals from writers with projects on these topics. Other Books in the Series Classic Reviews in Tourism Chris Cooper (ed.) Progressing Tourism Research Bill Faulkner, edited by Liz Fredline, Leo Jago and Chris Cooper Managing Educational Tourism Brent W. Ritchie Recreational Tourism: Demand and Impacts Chris Ryan Coastal Mass Tourism: Diversification and Sustainable Development in Southern Europe Bill Bramwell (ed.) Sport Tourism Development Thomas Hinch and James Higham Sport Tourism: Interrelationships, Impact and Issues Brent Ritchie and Daryl Adair (eds) Tourism, Mobility and Second Homes C. Michael Hall and Dieter Müller Strategic Management for Tourism Communities: Bridging the Gaps Peter E. Murphy and Ann E. Murphy Oceania: A Tourism Handbook Chris Cooper and C. Michael Hall (eds) Tourism Marketing: A Collaborative Approach Alan Fyall and Brian Garrod Music and Tourism: On the Road Again Chris Gibson and John Connell Tourism Development: Issues for a Vulnerable Industry Julio Aramberri and Richard Butler (eds) Nature-based Tourism in Peripheral Areas: Development or Disaster? C. Michael Hall and Stephen Boyd (eds)

For more details of these or any other of our publications, please contact: Channel View Publications, Frankfurt Lodge, Clevedon Hall, Victoria Road, Clevedon, BS21 7HH, England http://www.channelviewpublications.com

ASPECTS OF TOURISM 22 Series Editors: Chris Cooper (University of Queensland, Australia), C. Michael Hall (University of Otago, New Zealand) and Dallen Timothy (Arizona State University, USA)

Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change Edited by

C. Michael Hall and James Higham

CHANNEL VIEW PUBLICATIONS Clevedon • Buffalo • Toronto

This book is dedicated to: Al Gore, in recognition of his political foresight and initiatives with respect to global change; Geoff McBoyle and Geoff Wall, for their pioneering work in the field of tourism and climate change research and education; and Jody Cowper and Linda Buxton, for their untiring support

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change/Edited by C. Michael Hall and James Higham. Aspects of Tourism: 22 Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Tourism–Environmental aspects. 2. Outdoor recreation–Environmental aspects. 3. Climatic changes–Environmental aspects. I. Hall, Colin Michael. II. Higham, James E.S. III. Series. G155.A1T592435 2005 363.738'741–dc22 2004016906 A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue entry for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 1-84541-004-1 (hbk) ISBN 1-84541-003-3 (pbk) Channel View Publications An imprint of Multilingual Matters Ltd UK: Frankfurt Lodge, Clevedon Hall, Victoria Road, Clevedon BS21 7SJ. USA: 2250 Military Road, Tonawanda, NY 14150, USA. Canada: 5201 Dufferin Street, North York, Ontario, Canada M3H 5T8. Copyright © 2005 C. Michael Hall, James Higham and the authors of individual chapters. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher. Typeset by Florence Production Ltd. Printed and bound in Great Britain by the Cromwell Press.

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Page v

Contents

List of Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Part 1: Context 1 Introduction: Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change C. Michael Hall and James Higham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 The Climate–Tourism Relationship and its Relevance to Climate Change Impact Assessment C.R. de Freitas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 3 The Evolution of the Climate Change Issue in the Tourism Sector Daniel Scott, Geoff Wall and Geoff McBoyle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Part 2: The Effects of Climate Change on Tourist Flows and Recreation Patterns 4 Climate and Policy Changes: Their Implications for International Tourism Flows Sue Mather, David Viner and Graham Todd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 5 The Mediterranean: How Can the World’s Most Popular and Successful Tourist Destination Adapt to a Changing Climate? Allen Perry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 6 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Tourism under the Light of Equity Issues Ghislain Dubois and Jean-Paul Ceron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 7 Climate Change and Tourism and Recreation in North America: Exploring Regional Risks and Opportunities Daniel Scott, Geoff Wall and Geoff McBoyle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 8 Nature Tourism and Climatic Change in Southern Africa R.A. Preston-Whyte and H.K. Watson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 9 Changing Snow Cover and Winter Tourism and Recreation in the Scottish Highlands S.J. Harrison, S.J. Winterbottom and R.C. Johnson. . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 v

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Contents

10 Climate Change and Tourism in the Swiss Alps Rolf Bürki, Hans Elsasser, Bruno Abegg and Urs Koenig . . 11 Effects of Climate Change on Tourism Demand and Benefits in Alpine Areas Robert B. Richardson and John B. Loomis. . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Implications of Climate Change on Tourism in Oceania Stephen Craig-Smith and Lisa Ruhanen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Tourism, Fossil Fuel Consumption and the Impact on the Global Climate Susanne Becken and David G. Simmons. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . 155

. . . . . . 164 . . . . . . 181

. . . . . . 192

Part 3: Adaptation and Response: Managing the Relationship Between Tourism, Recreation and Global Climate Change 14 Tourism and Climate Change Adaptation: The Norwegian Case Carlo Aall and Karl G. Høyer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Tourism and the Ozone Hole: Varying Perceptions L. Michael Trapasso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 ‘Everyone Talks About the Weather . . .’ Keith Dewar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Climate Change, Leisure-related Tourism and Global Transport Paul Peeters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Sustainable Mobility and Sustainable Tourism Karl G. Høyer and Carlo Aall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Tourism as Victim, Problem or Solution: Story Lines of a Complex Industry–Environment Relation Lotta Frändberg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Tourism’s Contribution to Global Environmental Change: Space, Energy, Disease, Water Stefan Gössling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Making Tourism Sustainable: The Real Challenge of Climate Change? James Higham and C. Michael Hall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . 209 . . . 223 . . . 234

. . . 247 . . . 260

. . . 273

. . . 286

. . . 301

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308

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Contributors

Carlo Aall, Western Norway Research Institute, PO Box 163, N-6851 Sogndal, Norway ([email protected]). Bruno Abegg, Economic Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH8057 Zurich, Switzerland ([email protected]). Susanne Becken, Landcare Research, Canterbury Agriculture & Science Centre, Gerald Street, Lincoln, New Zealand (beckens@landcareresearch. co.nz). Rolf Bürki, Economic Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH8057 Zurich, Switzerland ([email protected]). Jean-Paul Ceron, Centre de recherche interdisciplinaire en droit de l’environnement, de l’aménagement et de l’urbanisme (CRIDEAU: Université de limoges, CNRS, INRA), 32 rue Turgot, 87000 Limoges, France ([email protected]). Stephen Craig-Smith, The School of Tourism and Leisure Management, The University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia (s.craigsmith@ mailbox.uq.edu.au). Keith Dewar, Faculty of Business, University of New Brunswick – Saint John, PO Box 5050, Canada, E2L 4L5 ([email protected]). Ghislain Dubois, Tourisme Environnement Consultants (TEC), 89 rue de la République 13002, Marseille, France (Ghislain.Dubois@tec-conseil. com/www.tec-conseil.com). Hans Elsasser, Economic Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH8057 Zurich, Switzerland ([email protected]). Lotta Frändberg, Department of Human and Economic Geography, Göteborg University, Sweden ([email protected]). C.R. de Freitas, School of Geography and Environmental Science, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand ([email protected]). vii

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Contributors

Stefan Gössling, Department of Service Management, Lund University, Helsingborg, Sweden ([email protected]). C. Michael Hall, Department of Tourism, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Honorary Professor, Department of Marketing, Stirling University, Scotland ([email protected]). S.J. Harrison, Honorary Research Fellow, Department of Geography, University of Dundee; St John’s Vicarage, 129 Main Street, Spittal, Berwick upon Tweed, Northumberland, YD15 1RP, UK (Johnandaveril@ aol.com). James Higham, Department of Tourism, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand ([email protected]). Karl G. Høyer, Western Norway Research Institute, PO Box 163, N-6851 Sogndal, Norway ([email protected]). R.C. Johnson, Mountain Environments, Callander, Scotland (info@ mountain-environments.co.uk). Urs Koenig, Economic Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH8057 Zurich, Switzerland ([email protected]). John B. Loomis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, B-320 Clark Building, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523– 1172, USA ([email protected]). Geoff McBoyle, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada ([email protected]). Sue Mather, Travel Research International, Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire, UK ([email protected]). Paul Peeters, NHTV Centre for Sustainable Tourism and Transport, Breda University of Professional Education, PO Box 3917, 4800 DX Breda, The Netherlands ([email protected]). Allen Perry, Department of Geography, University of Wales – Swansea, Singleton Park, Swansea, SA2 8PP, Wales ([email protected]). R.A. Preston-Whyte, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Natal, Durban, 4041, South Africa ([email protected]). Robert B. Richardson, School of Field Studies, Centre for Rainforest Studies, PO Box 141, Yungaburra, Queensland 4872, Australia ([email protected]). Lisa Ruhanen, The School of Tourism and Leisure Management, The University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia ([email protected]. edu.au). viii

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Contributors

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ix

Daniel Scott, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada ([email protected]). David G. Simmons, Environment, Society and Design Division, Lincoln University, New Zealand ([email protected]). Graham Todd, Travel Research International, Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire, UK ([email protected]). L. Michael Trapasso, Director of the College Heights Weather Station, Department of Geography and Geology, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY 42101, USA ([email protected]). David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK ([email protected]). Geoff Wall, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada ([email protected]). H.K. Watson, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Natal, Durban, 4041, South Africa ([email protected]). S.J. Winterbottom, School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland ([email protected]).

ix

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Preface

Climate change has emerged as a major issue in tourism and recreation management and planning in recent years with a numbers of papers being published in journals such as Climate Change, Journal of Sustainable Tourism and Tourism Analysis. It has also been the subject of meetings of the Tourism and Climate Commission of the International Society of Biometerology and a special meeting of the World Tourism Organisation. Yet despite such interest in the subject, the present volume presents the first edited book published explicitly on the subject of the relationships between tourism, recreation and climate change. It therefore aims to present the work of some of the leading researchers in the field in what is undoubtedly one of the major challenges facing the tourism industry in the 21st century. The book is divided into the three main sections. The first three chapters provide an introduction to the issues dealt with in the remainder of the book through an examination of the context of the tourism/recreation and climate change relationship. The second section provides a number of chapters that examine the effects of climate change on tourist flows and recreation patterns for specific geographical areas and locations with some of the policy implications also being noted. The third section examines tourist, recreationist and industry responses and adaptation to the issues of global climate change, although there is considerable interplay between the chapters in the second and third sections. The last three chapters in particular highlight the complexities involved in the tourism–climate change relationship by highlighting the difficulties that are inherent in making tourism sustainable. Given the significance of global climate change for tourism, we trust that this volume will be of interest not only to students of tourism in the narrow sense, but also to industry and policy makers. Climate change is a politically charged subject, as the editors found in attempting to bring the book together, even the act of editing such a book seemed to raise issues of politics, turfdom and petty resentment. Yet, as a number of contributors to this book note, dealing with the massive implications xi

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xii

Preface

and complexities of climate change requires not only greater cooperation and understanding between government, industry and researchers, but also between physical and social scientists, those who understand climate and those who understand the tourism and recreation phenomena. Without the development of such relationships our understanding and response to climate change and tourism relationships are bound to stay piecemeal. For the editors this book also continues a long-standing interest in sustainable tourism, for James from a base in ecotourism, for Michael from the framework of contemporary mobility. In completing this book we would also like to acknowledge our colleagues in the Department of Tourism, School of Business, University of Otago, and particularly the assistance of Mel Elliott and Monica Gilmour. Michael would also like to acknowledge his hosting by the Department of Social and Economic Geography, University of Umeå in autumn 2004, and Dieter Müller in particular, which greatly contributed to the editing and completion of this book. We wish to thank all at Channel View Publications for their support for this project and particularly Sami Grover for his enthusiastic response when we originally approached him with the idea for such a book. In that vein we must also thank all of the contributors with chapters in this book for their enthusiastic and timely support. Similarly, the editing process was greatly assisted by Billy Bragg, Geoff Buckley, Nick Cave, Paul Kelly, Ed Kuepper, Lucinda Williams and Chris Wilson. Finally, we wish to thank our family, friends and colleagues for their ongoing support in our research and teaching endeavours. C. Michael Hall and James Higham Dunedin, New Zealand

xii

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Page 3

Chapter 1

Introduction: Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change C. MICHAEL HALL AND JAMES HIGHAM

In my view, climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism – David King, Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK Government. (King, 2004: 176) Human-induced changes in the global climate system and in stratospheric ozone pose a range of severe health risks and potentially threaten economic development and social and political stability – Declaration of the Third Ministerial Conference on Environment and Health, 1999. (WHO, Regional Office for Europe, Global Change and Health, http://www.euro.who.int/globalchange)

It is one of the great truisms that everybody talks about the weather. However, in recent years, interest in the weather has grown as high magnitude storm events, floods, droughts, snowstorms and record high temperatures have become associated with potential changes in the world’s climate. For example, the record high temperatures experienced in Europe in the northern hemisphere summer of 2003 focused enormous attention on climate-related issues. Paris experienced the highest night-time temperatures ever recorded on 11 and 12 August (25.5C), and several countries, including Belgium, Finland, Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, also experienced record temperatures. The heatwave was unusual in that it affected several countries and persisted for at least ten days; in fact the whole northern summer (June, July, August) was much hotter than usual (Schär et al., 2004; see also Perry, Chapter 5, this volume). In France the Minister for the Elderly admitted that 10,000 people had most likely died because of the heatwave. In the last week of August, President Jacques Chirac addressed the nation saying that weaknesses in the French health system had contributed to these heat-related deaths. Despite similar heatwave conditions in the United Kingdom, with temperatures peaking on 10 August in Bogdale, near Faversham, Kent, where 38.5C (101.3F) was recorded, the British government response was 3

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Page 4

Context

much more low key. However, in October 2003 official figures released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) suggested that the death toll in England and Wales as a result of the ten-day heatwave in August 2003 may have been around 2000 people, which was much higher than those admitted at the time. According to the ONS between 4 and 13 August there were 15,187 deaths in England and Wales, 2045 above the average for the previous five years. In commenting on the ONS figures Carvel (2003: 10) said: ‘Although the statisticians were not yet able to provide an analysis of the ages of the victims and causes of death, it seemed almost certain that extreme heat was the reason for the higher mortality.’ Indeed, more recent preliminary estimates of the impact of the European heatwave on mortality suggest that in England and Wales 2045 or 16% excess deaths occurred, in France 14,802 deaths (60%), Italy 3134 deaths (15%) and Portugal 2099 deaths (26%) (Kovats et al., 2004). While reaction to the heatwave from European governments raised substantial issues regarding government preparedness for such extreme climate events in relation to public health, the forest and scrub fires in Portugal, Spain and France also created a powerful image in the media of the impacts of such heatwaves on the landscape. As Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, the Portuguese Prime Minister, stated, ‘We are standing before a tragedy which is unprecedented in Portugal in terms of fires . . . We are facing an exceptional situation. It’s been brought about by absolutely exceptional weather conditions, so we have to respond with exceptional measures’ (BBC News, 2003). Arguably, the impacts of the 2003 heatwave on European perceptions of climate were even more stark because of the comparisons that could be made with the floods that affected central Europe the previous year (BBC News, 2002). Given this kind of context it should therefore be of no great surprise that prospects of climate change have become the focus of media attention as well as substantial scientific debate (e.g. O´Riordan and Jäger, 1996; Houghton, 1997; Jepma & Mohan, 1998; Mendlesohn, 1999; Drake, 2000; Harvey, 2000; Sarewitz & Pielke Jr, 2000; Claussen, 2002; King, 2003). The extent of media coverage of global climate change issues is illustrated in Table 1.1, which shows major stories on climate change reported in the Guardian and Observer newspapers at the end of 2003/ beginning of 2004. While undoubtedly highlighting the range of issues associated with global climate change and some of the policy debates that surround them, the newspaper reports also begin to indicate the potential role of the media in influencing the public’s perception of places and activities. Not only do the news stories indicate the potential direct impact of climate change on tourism, e.g. the sale of Scottish ski resorts (Seenan, 2004), but also indirect impacts because of changes to resources that are part of tourism product offerings, e.g. coral reef bleaching (Radford, 2004b), species extinction (Brown, 2004a), and changes to 4

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5

Global warming forces sale of Scottish winter sports resorts Summer heatwave matches predictions

14 February

3 February

Meltdown

Bonfire of the promises

19 February

14 February

Careful with that planet, Mr President

19 February

The White Death

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: Climate change will destroy us

22 February

Secret security report to President Bush warns of rioting and nuclear war as a result of climate change, describes threat as greater than terrorism. According to the report climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters and warns that Britain will be ‘Siberian’ in less than 20 years (Townsend & Harris, 2004). Diana Liverman was a senior climate adviser in the US. Back in the UK, she argues for American scientists to be freed from their fear of speaking out on global warming (Liverman, 2004). The Global Climate Coalition, a powerful alliance of car makers, oil drillers and electricity generators, believes that the White House under President Bush shares their view that global warming is a hoax (Goldenberg, 2004). Refers to the bleaching of coral reefs as a result of increased ocean temperatures (Radford, 2004b). Alaska is a wealthy huge oil producer but has suffered the consequences of global warming, faster and more terrifyingly than anyone could have predicted (Lynas, 2004). The future of skiing and snowboarding in Scotland appeared bleak after two of the country’s five ski resorts were put up for sale after large financial losses (Seenan, 2004). A climate scientist warned that the heatwave in the northern summer of 2003 that killed thousands across Europe and saw temperatures in Britain pass 100F (38C) is a sign of things to come (Adam, 2004).

Outline

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19 February

Story heading

Date

Table 1.1 Key climate change-related stories in the Guardian and Observer newspapers in late 2003/early 2004

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Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change 5

CO2 cuts will raise prices, says industry

Freak summers ‘will happen regularly’ Giant space shield plan to save planet

17 January

12 January

6

Midwinter spring is the new season An unnatural disaster

9 January

8 January

Top scientist attacks US over global warming

9 January

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Climate change over the next 50 years is expected to drive a quarter of land animals and plants into extinction, according to the first comprehensive study into the effect of higher temperatures on the natural world, killing off one million species, and one in ten animals and plants extinct by 2050 (Brown, 2004a).

British industry urged ministers to undertake a drastic revision of their plans for cuts of up to 20% in carbon dioxide emissions and warned they could be suicidal for manufacturing’s competitiveness (Gow, 2004b). Britain’s heavy industry, including power stations, will have to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 16% over the next few years under strict new national guidelines for implementing EU regulations (Gow, 2004a). Study suggests costly extremes of weather will become the norm (Radford, 2004a). Key talks involving the UK government’s most senior climate experts produced proposals to site a massive shield on the edge of space, deflecting the sun’s rays and stabilising the climate (Townsend, 2004). Climate change is a more serious threat to the world than terrorism, David King, the UK government’s chief scientist, writes in an article in Science magazine, attacking governments for doing too little to combat global warming (Brown & Oliver, 2004). Climate change confusing wildlife (Brown, 2004b).

CO2 limits suicidal for competitiveness, says industry

20 January

11 January

Outline

Story heading

Date

Table 1.1 continued

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6 Context

Story heading

13 December Drowning islands halt effort to postpone climate change talks 12 December Global warming kills 150,000 a year: Disease and malnutrition the biggest threats, UN organisations warn at talks on Kyoto 11 December Extreme weather of climate change gives insurers a costly headache

Action now could still save some threatened species 21 December Britain can start dreaming of a green Christmas with swallows 18 December Earth is 20% darker, say experts

8 January

Date

Scientists report that human activity is making the planet darker as well as warmer, with levels of sunlight reaching earth’s surface having declined by up to 20% in recent years (Adam, 2003). A coalition of 40 small islands, some of which are in imminent danger of disappearing beneath the ocean, blocked attempts by major states to delay climate talks for 18 months (Brown, 2004e). At least 150,000 people die needlessly each year as a direct result of global warming, three major UN organisations warned. The belief that the effects of climate change would become apparent in 10, 20 or 50 years time was misplaced, they said in a report. The changes had already brought about a noticeable increase in malnutrition, and outbreaks of diarrhoea and malaria (Brown, 2003d). Economic losses in the European agricultural sector because of the 2003 summer drought exceeded £7bn because of loss of crops and livestock, the insurance industry announced (Brown, 2003c).

Estimates of extinction risk associated with climate change should compel people to start thinking about the consequences of massive species loss (Thomas & Cameron, 2004). As temperatures rise in the UK, spring is earlier and snow will become only a memory (Jowit, 2003).

Outline

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Table 1.1 continued

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Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change 7

Story heading

8

Warming warning for Antarctica

The Inuit of Canada and Alaska are launching a human rights case against the Bush administration claiming they face extinction because of global warming. The Inuit claim that by repudiating the Kyoto Protocol and refusing to cut US carbon dioxide emissions, which make up 25% of the world’s total, Washington is violating their human rights (Brown, 2003b). Britain has become twice as stormy in the past 50 years as climate change has forced the deep depressions that used to hit Iceland further south. The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research also reported that pressure changes in the atmosphere had caused storms to become more intense. Low pressure areas which bring high wind and rain are getting deeper, and the high pressure areas which bring calm, settled periods are getting stronger. The increased gradients between the two means more dramatic weather and expensive insurance claims (Brown, 2003a). Australian scientists report that frozen oceans that affect currents such as the Gulf Stream have decreased dramatically, suggesting that sea ice around Antarctica had shrunk 20% in the past 50 years (Fickling, 2003). Researchers warned that the appearance of Antarctica will dramatically change in the next 100 years as ice melts, glaciers retreat, penguins move south and green plants begin to colonise bare rocks of the Antarctic Peninsula (Radford, 2003).

Outline

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9 September

15 November Shrinking ice in Antarctic sea ‘exposes global warming’

10 December Climate change doubles Britain’s stormy weather

11 December Global warming is killing us too, say Inuit

Date

Table 1.1 continued

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8 Context

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seasonal weather patterns (Brown, 2004b; Radford, 2004a). Undoubtedly, tourism will not be the only industry to feel the effects of climate change. However, as one of the main world industries in terms of employment and economic returns, and of particularly importance in a number of developing countries and small island states, any impacts on tourism will have substantial economic, social and political repercussions. Moreover, tourism is arguably even more susceptible to global climate change because of the reliance on the environment in many destinations for their attractiveness, especially in coastal and mountain regions, while outdoor recreation activities are also susceptible to climatic extremes. Tables 1.2 and 1.3 detail the ideal climatic requirements for some outdoor recreation activities. The size of the international tourism industry is substantial. Preliminary estimates of full year results for 2003, published by the World Tourism Organization (WTO) (2004) indicate that even though the number of international arrivals fell by 1.2% (8.5 million) from the previous year, there were still some 694 million arrivals. With respect to 2004 the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) (2004) forecast that the combined direct and indirect impact of the travel and tourism economy is expected to total 10.4% of the world economy and total 73.7 million jobs or 2.8% of total world employment. The direct and indirect impact of the travel and tourism economy is expected to lead to a total of 214.7 million jobs being dependent on travel and tourism or 8.1% of total employment. An international overview of the economic contribution of tourism undertaken by the WTTC (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2003) is shown in Table 1.4. However, while the numbers provided by the WTO and the WTTC are impressive, they only give a partial perspective of the impacts of tourism. They do not account for the overall direct and indirect costs and benefits, particularly with respect to social and environmental impacts, nor do they provide any assessment of the opportunity costs that might be associated with tourism development. Nevertheless, they do provide an indication of why some governments and industry bodies are now starting to take the relationships between tourism and climate change seriously.

The Interrelationships between Tourism and Climate Change Given the long awareness of the relationship between climate and tourism (see Paul, 1972; Adams, 1973; Mieczkowski, 1985; Harrison et al., 1986; de Freitas, 1990, 2003, this volume; Smith 1990, 1993; Ewert, 1991; Harlfinger, 1991; Perry, 1997), it is perhaps surprising that an overt focus on the implications of climate change has occurred so recently (see 9

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