The Shape of Management for Men and Management

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THE SHAPEOF AUTOMATION For Men and Management

THE SHAPEOF AUTOMATION for Men and Management by Herbert A.Jjmon Carnegie Institute of Technology

0r) ~ HARPER

&

ROW, PUBLISHERS

New Yark, Evanston and London

To

CONTENTS

Kathie, Pete, and Barb

Whose world it will be. Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Introduction:

Computers and Automation

...........

L THE LoNG-RANGEEcoNOMICEFFECTSOF AUTOMATION. .

THE SHAPE OF AUTOMATION:

FOR MEN AND MANAGE.MENT

Copyright © 1965 by Harper & Row, Publishers, Incorporated

Part I, The Long Range Economic Effects of Automation copyright © 1965by Herbert A. Simon.

Part II, Will the Corporation be Managed by Machines? copyright ©

I

IL WILL THE CORPORATION BE MANAGED BY MACHINES?.. . .

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III. THE NEW SCIENCEOF MANAGEMENT DECISION. . . . . . . . A. The Executive as Decision Maker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B. Traditional Decision-Making Methods . . . . . . . . . . C. New Techuiques for Programmed Decision-Making........................................ D. Heuristic Problem Solving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E. Organizational Design: Man-Machine Systems for Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

53 53 61

1960, 1965 by the McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc. is reprinted by per-

mission, and with some abridgement, from Managementand Corporations, 1985, edited by Anshen and Bach, published by McGraw-Hill Book Company in 1960. Part III, The New Science of ManagementDecision copyright© 1960 by School of Commerce, Accounts, and Finance, New York University. Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information address Harper & Row, Publishers, Incorporated, 49 East 33rd Street, New York, N.Y. 10016.

LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOG CARD NUMBER:

ix

65-21009

V

68 76 92

Preface

In this volume I bring together some of my thinking, new and old, on the subject of computers and automation. The old thinking is a description of the computer technology and its implications for management. The new thinking is an analysis of the economic implications of automation. I cannot better describe my motives for this publication than in the words I used when the essays comprising the present Part III were originally published in 1960: My research activities during the past decade have brought me into contact with developments in the use of electronic digital computers. These computers are startling even in a world that takes atomic energy and the prospects of space travel in its stride. The computer and the new decision-making techniques associated with it are bringing changes in white-collar, executive, and professional work as momentous as those the introduction of machinery has brought to manual jobs. These essays record the product of my reflections about the organizational and social implications of these rapid technical developments. I do not apologize for extrapolating beyond our present certain knowledge. In our kind of world, those who are closest to important new technical innovations have a responsibility to provide reasoned interpretations of these innovations and their significance. Such interpretations should be, of course, the beginning and not the end of public discussion. But they cannot be made at all without extrapolation from present certainties into future probabilities. vii

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PREFACE

The essay on the economic effects of automation, Part I of the present volume, has not previously been published. Parr II is reprinted by permission, and with some abridgement, from Management and Corporations, l