The Race to Control the Population [1 ed.] 9781477778517, 9781477778500

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The Race to Control the Population The Race to End Epidemics

The Race to Control the Population

The Race to Feed the Hungry The Race to Find Energy The Race to Fix the Global Economy The Race to Survive Climate Change

WORLD IN CRISIS

titles in this series

WORLD IN CRISIS

The Race to Control the

Population

Hardyman

ROSEN

Robyn Hardyman

WORLD IN CRISIS

The Race to control the

population Robyn Hardyman

new york

Published in 2015 by The Rosen Publishing Group, Inc. 29 East 21st Street New York, NY 10010 Copyright © 2015 by The Rosen Publishing Group, Inc. First Edition All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher, except by a reviewer. Produced for Rosen by Calcium Creative Ltd. Editor for Calcium Creative Ltd.: Sarah Eason Designer: Paul Myerscough Picture research: Rachel Blount Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Hardyman, Robyn. The race to control the population/by Robyn Hardyman, first edition. p. cm.—(World in crisis) Includes bibliographic references and index. ISBN 978-1-4777-7850-0 (library binding) 1. Population—Juvenile literature. 2. Overpopulation—Juvenile literature. I. Hardyman, Robyn. II. Title. HB883.H37 2015 304.6—d23 Manufactured in the United States of America Photo credits: Cover: Getty Images: TonyV3112; Inside: Dreamstime: Andrew Shaw 27; Shutterstock: 19, Ailisa 5, Asianet-Pakistan 37, Blend Images 45, Donald Bowers Photography 16, Stephen Bures 24, Hung Chung Chih 21, Frontpage 33, Jose Gil 43, Martin Good 25, Grigvovan 29, Guentermanaus 22, Jorg Hackemann 17, Idiz 26, Perati Komson 4, Lightpoet 13, Johnny Lye 10, Meunierd 15, Dudarev Mikhail 20, Monkey Business Images 14, 32, Motorolka 35, Martin Novak 38, Jim Parkin 7, Patrimonio Designs ltd 39, Pavel L Photo and Video 40, Poznyakov 8, Daniel Prudek 12, Rehan Qureshi 44, Radiokafka 41, Andrey Savin 18, Spirit of America 9, 11, Spotmatik 31, Stocksolutions 34, Johan Swanepoel 42, Pal Teravagimov 30, TonyV3112 28, T.W. van Urk 36, Marc van Vuren 23, Zulufoto 6.

Contents Introduction A Crowded World?

4

Chapter One Why Has Population Growth Occurred?

6

Chapter Two What Are the Results of Overpopulation?

12

Chapter Three Growing Pains

18

Chapter Four Can We Fix Overpopulation?

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Chapter Five Using Fewer Resources

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Chapter Six The Future

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Glossary 46 Further Reading 47 Index 48

INTRODUCTION

A Crowded World? In your neighborhood, you probably see lots of people. If you live in the city, the sidewalks and stores are crowded, and the streets and freeways get jammed with traffic. If you live in a small rural community, it may not seem so crowded. There may be several miles between places where people live. There is space on Earth for everyone. The problem is that too many people are concentrated in some parts of the planet, and as a result people are putting enormous pressure on Earth’s precious resources.

A Growing Problem There are more than 7 billion people living on Earth today. That is a lot of people. However, the really startling aspect is the rate at which this population has grown in the past 100 years. In 1800, the world population was about 1 billion. By 1960, that had grown to 3 billion. Over the last 50 years, that figure has more than doubled. That is a population explosion. Some experts estimate that by 2050 there will be at least 9 billion people on the planet, and by 2100 perhaps more than 10 billion.

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Earth’s cities in many parts of the world are crowded, but there are plenty of areas of the planet where very few people live.

A CROWDED WORLD?

What People Need

Time to Act

All people on Earth need a place to live, where they can be safe and warm. They need water and food. They need work, to earn money to support themselves and their families. They also need communities that support them, with education, health care, and other services. A booming population puts an enormous burden on our planet.

Earth has limited resources, and the modern world is stretching them to breaking point. Some of us are using too much of those resources and not taking good enough care of our environment. At the same time, millions of people in the world do not have enough to eat, or a decent place to live. Although people have been aware of the problem for some time, the issue is still getting worse. There is general agreement among experts that we must all act now, to begin to turn the polution crisis around.

Hugely overcrowded cities have slum areas, sometimes known as shanty towns. There, people live in squalid conditions with very poor sanitation and little space.

COUNTDOWN! It is difficult to predict the future growth of the world population. There are many factors that affect the predictions, and if one of them changes just a little it has a big impact on the result. Some experts think the world population figure will peak at a little over 9 billion in 2075, then start to gradually decline.

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CHAPTER ONE

Why Has Population Growth Occurred? Why has the world population grown so much in recent decades? What has changed since the middle of the twentieth century? Several factors have contributed to this extraordinary population explosion. It is important to understand them, so that we can take the best possible action for the future.

Measuring the Growth The size of the population depends on the number of births and deaths. When there are more births than deaths in a year, the population increases. When there are more deaths than births, it decreases. These numbers, knows as birth and death rates, are used by demographers—people who study population—to predict future rises and falls. Birth and death rates are explained using a number per thousand people. If a country has an annual birth The arrival of a new baby brings great joy to most families, but too many of the babies of today face an uncertain future in some parts of the world.

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Why Has Population Growth Occurred?

Technologies have made agriculture in developed countries more efficient. The landscape is covered with vast fields that produced higher crop yields than those of the past.

rate of 15 people born per 1,000 people living in the country, for example, and a death rate of 10 people dying per 1,000 living in the country, its population would increase by 5 people per 1,000 each year.

LOOK

Living Longer

PAST

The world’s population increases by around 80 million each year as 135 million new humans are born and 55 million people die. Why are so many more people being born compared to the numbers who are dying? One reason is that people are living longer. An important factor in this has been improvements in diet. In the second half of the twentieth century, new techniques in agriculture and advances in machinery in the developed world meant that a greater quantity of food could be grown than before, from the same area of land. Food in developed countries became more plentiful, and cheaper. People could afford to buy more food, and have a betterquality diet. This made them healthier.

TO THE

The years between 1945 and 1965 are known as the “baby boom” in the developed world, because many more babies were born in this period than ever before. After the end of World War II in 1945, many people became increasingly prosperous and could afford to raise more children. There was a general feeling of optimism about the future.

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The Race to Control the Population

Health Care Improvements Probably the most important factor affecting the death rate around the world has been the significant improvements in health care. Scientific research and development have helped our understanding of disease and produced new drugs and new technologies to diagnose people and treat their illnesses. As this knowledge has spread around the world, health care in the poorest countries has also improved.

Saving Babies

Medical care in the developed world is very sophisticated today. It is allowing people to live for longer and have a better quality of life.

The number of babies who die before they reach the age of one —known as the “infant mortality rate”—is higher in developing countries than in developed countries. In countries where infant mortality is high, large families are common and parents tend to have more children. However, improvements in health care have been reducing the infant mortality rate. An increasing number of babies have been vaccinated against the serious diseases of childhood.

Good News and Bad News The biggest killer of children in the developing world, malaria, is still a serious threat, but a huge global fight against it has brought some success. More children are growing up and becoming adults. This is good news, but if parents continue to have a high number of children, the population continues to grow.

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Why Has Population Growth Occurred?

Lifelong Health Health care for adults has also been transformed over the past 50 years. In many countries, national screening programs can detect diseases such as cancer in more people, and at an earlier stage. Treatment is most effective when a disease is diagnosed early. New drugs and other medical therapies have also improved survival rates. In 2000, the average life expectancy in the United States was 76.8, and then increased to 78.8 by 2010.

In the developing world, health care is also improving, although it is more likely to be fragmented because health systems are less well developed.

SCIENCE SOLUTIONS

The CyberKnife Treatment for cancer often includes radiotherapy. This delivers radiation to the cancer tumor, to kill it. Sometimes cancers appear in parts of the body that are hard to reach, such as the lungs and the brain. The CyberKnife, a machine that fires a pencil-thin beam of radiation from 200 different positions, to within 0.1 mm accuracy, can reach these areas. It means the patient may avoid dangerous surgery on his or her tumor. Fewer people are dying of cancer as a result of improved treatment options such as the CyberKnife.

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The Race to Control the Population

Migration Today, people move around the world much more than they used to. It is great to travel abroad on vacation, and work is increasingly global, too. Workers often need to travel to see their colleagues and customers in other countries. Sometimes people leave their home country permanently. This is called migration, and it is another factor in the rise in Earth’s population.

If migrants are successful, they gain other benefits of living in a wealthy country, too. These include access to better-quality housing and food, and to good health care. All of these factors have increased the life expectancy of migrants. If their children get a good education, they will be well placed to find good jobs and raise their standard of living and life expectancy as well.

Searching for a Better Life Most migrants move from developing countries to developed ones to find a higher standard of living. They are known as economic migrants. They move to countries such as the United States looking for a better job and a better quality of life for themselves and their families.

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Immigration centers at ports and airports can be very congested, as people line up to enter the country. They come seeking a better life than the one they have left behind.

Why Has Population Growth Occurred?

Problems Back Home Economic migrants may contribute to the increase in the overall population, but their departure has an impact on their home countries. If the migrants are skilled, their country loses those skills when they leave.

Developing countries have a great need for doctors and engineers, in particular, to raise standards of living there. This movement of many well-educated people from one country to another is known as a “brain drain.”

LOOK

TO THE

PAST

The United States has always been seen as a land of opportunity for economic migrants. In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, millions of people migrated to the United States from Europe, especially Germany, Italy, and Ireland. More recently, Asians from the Pacific Rim and Hispanics from the southern Americas have come seeking prosperity and freedom. In 2007, a little over 12 percent of the United States’ population was foreign-born, and more than half of those were from Latin America. In 2012, more than 1 million migrants were granted the legal right to stay in the United States.

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CHAPTER TWO

What Are the Results of Overpopulation? If the world is suffering from a crisis of overpopulation, what does that mean? We know that some areas have very few people living in them, while others have far too many. We also know that some parts of the world are using far more of Earth’s resources than others. They are putting too much pressure on those resources. As a result, not only is the local environment under threat, but so too is the whole global environment.

Standard of Living Population problems are not just about numbers. Many cities in the developing world, It is the way people live that has the greatest such as this one in India, are impact. The two most populated countries in the extremely overcrowded. world are China and India. Each is home to more than 1.2 billion people. The third most populated country is the United States, with more than 300 million people. However, people in China and India do not enjoy the standard of living experienced by most people in the United States. They do not consume the planet’s resources at the same level.

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What Are the Results of Overpopulation?

More Means Less Levels of population, and changes in those levels, are closely linked to wealth. In many developed countries, the population is hardly increasing at all. In some, it is actually falling. The United Nations has predicted that the populations of countries such as Germany, Italy, and Japan will be lower in 2050 than they are today. Lifestyles in these countries have changed, and birth rates have declined. These countries have more developed economies than those in poorer countries. People living in developed countries have good access to education and health care, and the quality of the infrastructure—basic services such as utilities, transportation links, and communication systems—is high.

In the developed world, people have good access to education and are likely to have fewer children.

COUNTDOWN! The population of India was 1,205,073,612 in June 2012. It is predicted to rise to 1,656,553,632 by 2050. That is an increase of more than 35 percent. In contrast, the population of Japan was 127,368,088 in June 2012 and is predicted to decline to 93,673,826 by 2050. That is a fall of about 26 percent.

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The Race to Control the Population

Pyramids and Mushrooms The populations of countries change slowly, over a long time, unless a major catastrophe such as war or famine has a sudden impact. Three generations are typically alive at one time—child, parent, and grandparent. In societies where women often have children at a young age, four or five generations of one family may be alive at one time. Today, almost half of Earth’s population is under the age of 25. However, the problem is that these young people are not equally distributed around the world.

Lifetime of Change An increase in the birth rate will take a long time to work through the balance of a country’s population. For the first 15 years there will be more children. After about 20 years, the “bulge” in the population will be

In the developed world, people can expect to have many years of good quality life after they reach retirement age.

14

among the age group that are now having children. About 40 years later, those same people will be retiring from work and so the bulge will be in the older age group.

The Population Pyramid When demographers study populations, they often group people by age. They visualize the numbers of people in each age group in a chart. A classic shape for this chart is a pyramid. There are many people, aged up to 19 years, along the base of the pyramid. There are slightly fewer in the next level up, 20–30 years, because some adults die at a young age. The next level up has fewer people again, and at the top of the pyramid there are few very old people. This shape is typical for the population chart of developing countries. They have far fewer old people than young people.

What Are the Results of Overpopulation?

In many developing countries, there are far more young people than old people. This leads to a worrying imbalance in the population.

The Mushroom Effect In developed countries, the population charts look different. There are fewer children, but people also live longer, so the chart does not become narrower as it rises. It bulges in the middle, and remains wide at the top, because the population has so many old people. If the birth rate falls farther, the chart begins to look like a “mushroom”— wider at the top than at the bottom.

COUNTDOWN! The predicted population chart for Russia in 2050 is a mushroom shape. Russia’s population is shrinking by 700,000 a year. The birth rate is falling because the economy is suffering and people do not want to have many children. This creates a problem for society. There are not enough people in work to pay the taxes to the government that then provides support services for the many elderly people.

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The Race to Control the Population

A daily commute on overcrowded transportation is a necessary part of life for many people who live in towns and cities all over the world.

A Global Impact The global population explosion of the past 50 years has created a crisis in our use of Earth’s resources. As the population continues to rise, the crisis is getting worse. It is unclear whether our planet can cope with all the demands we are making of it.

Leaving a Footprint People’s most basic needs are for land, clean water, and food. There is plenty of unused land on Earth, but in most cases that is because it is not suitable for either habitation or agriculture. We are concentrated on the land that best suits our needs. We all use much more land than we actually live on. We use farmland

16

to grow our grain, grazing land for the animals that provide meat and dairy, forests for lumber, and we fish the oceans. We also use developed land for our schools, hospitals, roads, and commerce. All these elements make up what is called our “global footprint,” and each person has his or her own footprint. For the lifestyle of an average American or European person, the footprint is about 24 acres (10 ha) per person. In developing countries, the footprint is smaller at around to 7 acres (3 ha) per person.

Our Liquid Asset Water is our most precious resource. We take it for granted that we can turn on the faucet for drinking and bathing, but, globally, water is in short supply. Fresh water comes

What Are the Results of Overpopulation? from sources under the ground, as well as from rivers and rainfall. It sits underground in the water table. As we use up water, the water table gets lower. In the United States, and some other countries, so much water has been pumped out of the ground for agriculture that the water table is falling. The water supply is not endless. Water shortages will affect the amount of food that can be grown, and therefore increase the price of food. This will mean more and more people will go hungry. The water problem is not confined to developing countries alone. It is estimated that by 2020 the state of California will be experiencing serious water supply problems.

SCIENCE SOLUTIONS

Desalination Much of the planet is covered in water—seawater. We cannot drink it or irrigate crops with it, but fresh water can be extracted from seawater by desalination, the process that removes the salt. This is already being done in some places that suffer from droughts, but the process is expensive.

One of the most serious effects of the population crisis in the future is likely to be the intense pressure on supplies of water in areas such as San Diego in California.

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CHAPTER THREE

Growing Pains In overcrowded countries, people’s quality of life is impacted in many ways. Nobody likes to have an overcrowded journey to work, or to live in a city full of smog. For millions of people, however, the consequences are far worse. They do not have access to clean water, or enough to eat. They may live in poor-quality, unsafe housing. What is more, the most serious consequence of overpopulation is the one felt by the whole planet—global warming.

No Fair Shares At present we can produce enough food to feed the world, but if the population continues to grow at its present rate, some experts believe we will have a problem because there is limited land available for agriculture. For many people, however, the real issue is that food is not shared equally around the world. In many developed countries people eat too much and are overweight. They also waste too much food. Americans throw away more than 200,000 tons (180,000 mt) of edible food every day.

In countries such as the United States, people eat far more food than they need to. It is often poor quality, with too much fat, salt, and sugar, and little nutritional value.

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Growing Pains

SCIENCE SOLUTIONS

Vaccination India’s government has fought back against poverty and disease. In 1978, it launched a widespread campaign to vaccinate every child in India against polio, a deadly disease. Doctors and charity workers reached even the most remote rural areas, and the program has been a real success.

A Crowded Country

Hurting the Land

India, like many countries in the developing world, does not have the money or the facilities to cope with the problems of rapid population growth. India has experienced one of the most enormous population increases of any country. Its population has increased by 245 percent in 60 years to more than 1.2 billion people. Most of them live in poverty. India’s cities are massively overcrowded, with huge areas of slum housing. Health care and education are poor in many areas, and millions of people do not have enough to eat.

The need to produce large quantities of food to feed a growing population in India has had a harmful effect on the land. Forests have been cut down and grasslands plowed so that food can be grown. When this new land is cultivated intensively, it quickly becomes less fertile. Without trees to anchor it, the soil can be washed or blown away by rain or wind. This is called desertification, and it makes the land useless for farming. Most people in India work on the land, and they grow just enough to feed themselves and their families. If the land fails, they will lose everything.

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The Race to Control the Population

Out of Balance

Spread of Pollution

Wherever people live, they need homes, transportation, and places of work and commerce. These needs require a lot of land. How much land can be converted for human use before the global environment suffers? In developed countries, the overdevelopment of the land and the overconsumption of resources have created pollution, environmental damage, and congestion. The population crisis is not only a problem for the developing world.

Heavy industry, such as chemical manufacture and ore processing, creates pollution. Pollutants pour into rivers, or up into the air. This affects all living things. Pollution kills wildlife of all types, in rivers, seas, on the land, and in the skies. Over a long period of time, even low levels of harmful substances that get into our water supply can damage our health. The millions of vehicles on the roads also pollute the atmosphere, and the waste we produce has to be buried or burned.

Heavy industry creates high levels of pollution. This impacts on the environment, and contributes to the growing problem of climate change.

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Growing Pains

LOOK

TO THE

PAST

Poor air quality is a big problem in some cities in China, such as the capital, Beijing. Large cities in industrialized countries came up against this problem in the past. In 1952, London, England, suffered “The Great Smog.” This was caused by the coal that was burned in people’s homes for heating, in power plants and factories, and on the steam-powered railroads. Thousands of people died from inhaling the smoke. The disaster prompted the first legislation to clean up air pollution by limiting smoke emissions.

City Sprawl The growth of our cities impacts on the environment, too. In the United States alone, sprawl destroys 2.2 million acres (890,300 ha) of farmland, ranch land, and forest every year. This destroys the habitat of thousands of animals and plants. Sprawl also brings problems of a different kind. Covering the land with tarmac and cement means that rainwater cannot soak into the ground and drain away. It runs off all the hard surfaces and into the rivers, which cannot cope with the extra volume of water. The rivers flood, either over valuable crops or over people’s homes and businesses.

Too Much Congestion The overpopulated developed world also suffers from congestion of all kinds. Workers waste hours every day in rush-hour traffic jams. The quality of housing declines as more people try to fit into the cities. Social problems such as crime and unemployment increase. The providers of services such as health care and education come under more pressure.

Traffic jams and poor air quality are just some of the features of life in many of today’s big cities. As developing countries become more urbanized, this problem will only worsen in the coming years.

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The Race to Control the Population

Global Warming Perhaps the most serious impact of the population crisis is on our planet itself. Experts claim that our endless demand for resources is damaging Earth almost beyond repair. All our plundering and polluting have affected the atmosphere, which in turn is making our weather more extreme.

Getting Warmer We rely on fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas— to power our world. By endlessly burning fossil fuels to make electricity we are spewing huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the air. This traps the sun’s heat and

Fragile homes and buildings, such as these, at low levels beside water, can be swept away by sudden floods, leaving communities devastated and homeless.

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so warms the atmosphere, which impacts on our climate. One result of the warming is that the ice at the poles is melting. This makes sea levels rise and reduces the temperature of the water. This in turn alters weather patterns around the world. The warming also affects natural habitats, as low-lying areas disappear under seawater.

Extreme Weather Many experts think that climate change is bringing greater extremes of weather. Some countries, such as Australia and in Africa, are suffering from prolonged drought. Other countries are seeing more severe storms than before, and higher levels of rainfall.

Growing Pains Storms and very high rainfall lead to flooding. In drought-afflicted areas, the crops cannot grow, and livestock animals die because there is no grazing land for them to feed on. When these two things happen, the price of food rises. Everybody is affected, but the poorest people suffer the most and go hungry.

Time Is Running Out If we continue to use fossil fuels at the current rate—or an ever-higher rate, as the population rises—they will soon run out. We need to stop burning so many fossil fuels, and to find more sustainable and cleaner sources of energy to power our world.

When floods come, the victims’ lives are turned upside down. Disease can quickly follow.

COUNTDOWN! Changes in the patterns of rainfall and drought around the world are devastating small farmers in the world’s poorest regions. Experts predict that the amount of agriculture that is dependent on rainfall for its water will decrease by 50 percent by 2050. This will only deepen the crisis in food production. It will

also put even more pressure on the supply of water in those areas. A third effect is that young people who might have been farmers leave the land and move to the cities to find different kinds of work. This puts increased pressure on the overcrowded cities.

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CHAPTER FOUR

Can We Fix Overpopulation? The crisis in population growth is real, but what can we do about it? Overpopulation is complex. It involves not just the number of babies being born, but how people all over the world live their lives. It is an issue about how we are using Earth’s resources, and how we plan for our future.

A Simple Choice It is not inevitable that the population must continue to grow out of control. We have a choice—we can ignore the problem or we can tackle it. As Martin Luther King Jr. has said, “Unlike plagues of the dark ages or contemporary diseases we do not understand, the modern plague of overpopulation is soluble by means we have discovered and with resources we possess. What is lacking is not sufficient knowledge of the solution but universal consciousness of the gravity of the problem, and education of the billions who are its victim.”

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The problem of overpopulation is closely linked to poverty. Both must be tackled in order to break the poverty cycle and so reduce overpopulation.

Can We Fix Overpopulation?

Making a Start We cannot, however, race to solve the problem. Patterns in population growth change slowly. Changes in birth rates take decades to have an impact. What is more, overpopulation is closely linked to poverty and inequality around the world, and these problems cannot be solved overnight. What we can do, however, is race to start solving the problem and act with urgency.

Time for Action Many people around the world are now acting to try to fix overpopulation. Some are working at an international level, in organizations such as the United Nations (UN) or the World Health Organization (WHO), or in charities. Others are making policy at government level. This may be policy to control the consumption of resources at home, or to stimulate research into sustainable, green technologies. It may also be about giving aid to the countries most in need right now. Thousands more people are working at a local level, providing education, technology, and other resources. Finally, we can each make a contribution as individuals, in the choices we make about how we live.

Charities work tirelessly around the world to address some of the many problems related to overpopulation.

LOOK

TO THE

PAST

In 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change produced an international treaty called the Kyoto Protocol. The treaty set binding targets for industrialized countries, to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases, which contribute to global warming. Almost 200 countries entered the agreement, but the United States was not among them. In 2012, more United Nations climate talks extended the timetable for the agreement.

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The Race to Control the Population

Reducing the Birth Rate One obvious way to tackle overpopulation is to reduce the number of births. Greater numbers of people consume more resources and put more pressure on the planet. Slowing the birth rate is not easy, however. It brings practical and political difficulties around the world. .

Bridging the Wealth Gap In developed countries, the birth rate is already falling, and has been for some years. This is because as people become richer, they have fewer children. People in developing countries have more children, to meet their needs. Children are an important part of the labor force in places where most of the work is in agriculture. They can earn money, and care for their parents as they become older and unable to work. The answer therefore seems simple: make people in the developing world wealthier. This seems like an excellent fix, but it takes a long time to solve the huge problems of poverty. The crisis is too urgent to rely on this solution alone, so other short-term answers are needed.

Children in the developing world often work to help support their families., thereby missing out on education and a chance for a better future for themelves.

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Can We Fix Overpopulation?

Using Contraception One method of dealing with overpopulation is to educate people in developing countries about ways to control the number of children they have, and to make laws to limit the number of births. Studies have found that contraception, which stops a woman from becoming pregnant, is almost five times cheaper as a means of preventing climate change than the more conventional solutions, such as green technology. Much work is being done to teach women in the developing world about birth control methods, so that they can make choices about the number of children they have. In some countries, contraceptives such as condoms are given out freely, to reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies. However, some people do not agree with the policy of using contraception to curb population growth. Some religious groups object to any interference with a woman’s natural fertility. Others see the policy as a means of the developed world imposing its ideas on societies with different traditions.

The Indian government recently pledged almost $1 billion to provide people with free birth control aids in an attempt to reduce its population.

SCIENCE SOLUTIONS

Injections It can be difficult and expensive for women in remote areas of a country such as Nigeria, for example, to travel regularly to a health clinic for contraception. One answer to this problem is a new contraceptive injection that lasts for several months. The injection means that women do not have to remember to take a contraceptive pill every day, or come back to clinic so often.

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The Race to Control the Population

China’s Experiment A more radical approach to reducing the birth rate is for a country to pass laws to control it. This is exactly what happened in China, and the consequences have been quite dramatic and unpredicted.

The One-child Policy The population of China nearly doubled in the 30 years between 1949 and 1979. In 1979, the Chinese government decided that this population explosion was affecting the

People living in China’s cities are becoming more affluent and are buying many more goods than they did a generation ago.

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country’s economic development. Couples living in China’s towns and cities were banned from having more than one child. If they broke this ban, they received large fines and other penalties. People in rural areas were allowed to have two children if the firstborn was a girl. As a result of this one-child policy, the average number of children born per couple in China has fallen from 5 to 1.7. The government claims it has prevented 200–300 million births. Critics say that China’s population is still growing fast, however, and that the policy has led women to give birth in secret. China has been criticized for abusing people’s human rights with this strict intervention.

Can We Fix Overpopulation?

Causing More Problems

China’s one-child policy created an imbalance in the number of girls and boys in the population.

Interfering with population growth can have other serious consequences. Now that the one-child policy is more than 30 years old, China is experiencing a lack of children who can care for their parents in their old age. This caring role has always been important for children in Chinese society. There is now an imbalance, too, in the population between men and women. More boys have been born than girls, and, as China’s economy has grown, more and more people have left the rural areas to work in the cities. COUNTDOWN! There is now a shortage of women for young Chinese men to marry, especially It is estimated that by 2020, in rural villages. Women can choose 24 million Chinese men will be their husband from a bigger group of men. They are tending to choose men unable to find a bride in China, because with good jobs and good economic of the shortage of young adult women. prospects, who live in the cities.

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The Race to Control the Population

Education As people become wealthier, they have fewer children. It makes sense, therefore, to tackle overpopulation by helping people out of poverty. One of the most effective ways to do this is through education. This does not mean simply education about family planning and birth control. It means giving people a general education so that they have the skills to find work that will allow them to earn enough money to support themselves and their families.

Benefits of Education Many people around the world are working to improve access to education for the world’s poorest people. Charities look at the reasons why children are out of school. They involve communities in identifying and overcoming the barriers they have to learning. They work with individuals, governments, and partner organizations to address all aspects of children’s basic education. They may train new teachers, or link together education and health programs. Educated young people are better able to find jobs. Sometimes they will start small businesses of their own. If these are successful, they will give work to

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Education is the key to enabling people to lift themselves out of poverty. Through education, people can find more highly-paid work and thereby achieve a better quality of life.

more people, whose standard of living will also rise. This is known as a “virtuous circle,” and it is the way to lift developing communities out of poverty.

Can We Fix Overpopulation?

Teaching the Girls Amazingly, of the 77 million children around the world who do not go to school, more than 60 percent of them are girls. There are many cultural and political reasons for this, but the education of girls has been shown to make a big difference in slowing the growth in birth rates. When a girl is educated, she will start a family later, have fewer and healthier children, and want those children to go to school. Figures from the World Bank show that what a family earns increases by as much as 20 percent for every additional year a girl spends in education.

When women are able to obtain education and training, they improve their standard of living and that of their families in the future.

COUNTDOWN! Education is a long-term solution to the population crisis. It takes at least one generation for the benefits of education to make a difference and to start to change people’s behavior. However, it is vital to begin a policy of education as early as possible.

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CHAPTER FIVE

Using Fewer Resources Many experts point out that the real problem with the population crisis is not the number of people in the world, but the amount they consume. Most of Earth’s population growth is in poor countries, where consumption is much lower than in the developed world. As these countries develop, people in them want to use greater resources to improve their standard of living. Rather than reducing consumption of resources in the developing world, should the focus instead be on cutting consumption in the developed world? The answer is that we need to do both.

In developed countries, we have too much choice when we shop for food. We buy more than we need, and waste too much of it, too.

Unfair World Balance Only 5 percent of the people in the world live in North America, and yet it eats up 25 percent of the globe’s energy reserves, such as oil, gas, and coal. The countries of Europe together use about 22 percent, and China about 15 percent. The whole of Africa uses just over 10 percent. Governments can encourage people to cut down on their

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Using Fewer Resources energy consumption, and to reduce the amount of waste they produce. They are less likely, however, to pass laws forcing people to do these things. Politicians want to be re-elected. The true impact of our overconsumption may be decades down the line, but the next election will be much sooner. Politicians often make decisions to attract voters, rather than for a long-term benefit. Laws restricting people’s freedoms are never going to be popular.

Hitting Back The countries worst affected by climate change, however, are beginning to fight back. In 2012, at an international conference on climate

change, developing countries demanded that the overconsuming countries should pay them compensation for the damage caused to their economies. This will be a point to watch in the future.

COUNTDOWN! Between 1990 and 2005, Central America lost nearly 20 percent of its rain forest, as trees were felled for lumber. South America lost nearly 7 percent. As a result, it is estimated that 17–35 percent of plant and animal species that live in the rain forests could become extinct by 2040. This loss of species can never be reversed.

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The Race to Control the Population

Supplying More Food

Farming Breakthroughs

There is a limited amount of land available for growing food on Earth. In order to feed the world’s growing population, we need to do two things. The first is to find ways to grow more food on the land available. The second is to share it more fairly between developed and developing nations, by improving distribution.

Experts suggest that food production will have to increase by at least 60 percent by 2050 to feed the world. Scientists are working on ways to use the land more effectively, and to produce higher yields of crops. They have worked to produce varieties of the most important crops that are more tolerant to drought, and so produce more food. In one region of Kenya, in East Africa, for example, farmers have seen their yields more than double since they started using new varieties of the crops sorghum and millet. They have been able to grow enough food not only to feed their families, but also to create a surplus that they can sell at market, to give them extra income. With that money, they can pay to educate their children, or improve their lives in other ways. New farming techniques are helping to improve yields, too. These include ways to conserve water, which is in short supply, and ways to prevent dry soil from blowing away in the wind.

Teaching farmers new improved crop growing and watering techniques can help them to grow significantly increased amounts of food.

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Using Fewer Resources

Improving Crops One important area of progress in food production is the development of genetically modified (GM) crops. Scientists alter the genetic make-up of a plant such as rice, to change the plant’s characteristics and make it more productive. They take the most desirable gene from one plant and insert it into another. The new plants that are created may also be able to grow on land that is not suitable for other crops.

SCIENCE SOLUTIONS Scientists are developing new crop varieties that can adapt to changing growing conditions. This will prove one of the scientific solutions to global hunger in the coming years.

Growing Meat Scientists have been experimenting with new techniques for “growing” meat. They have used stem cells from animals to grow new muscle tissue. This lab-grown meat could one day become more efficient to produce than meat from livestock. Raising livestock uses a lot of land, along with water and other vital resources.

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The Race to Control the Population

Alternative Energy As poorer countries develop, their demand for energy increases. The countries need more energy to power their factories, homes, and businesses. They also need fuel for their vehicles. Demand for energy is also still rising in wealthy countries, where people are used to high levels of consumption. We are already using up the world’s supplies of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—and in using them we are damaging our environment. We need to find more sustainable, cleaner sources of energy to power the lives of the growing population.

Using the Elements Alternative forms of energy include solar, wind, and water power. Each one is suited to a different environment. The hot, sunny climate of California, for example, is well suited to solar power, and there are some enormous solar power farms in the southern United States. The seas around Britain are well suited to offshore wind power, while large rivers in China have been dammed to provide hydroelectric power. Solar power is also beginning to make a significant difference to countries in Africa, where there is plenty of sunshine but a poor electricity infrastructure. Local solar power facilities can transform people’s lives. For example, having good lighting after sunset can extend the hours when children can be in school or take time to study.

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Wind turbines create electricity without pollution, but their visual impact makes them controversial in some locations, such as areas of natural beauty.

Using Fewer Resources

Power from the Land The millions of vehicles we drive consume huge quantities of gasoline, but there is a possible replacement—biofuel. This is made from plant crops. Some people have criticized the move to biofuel, because growing the crops to make it uses land that could be used for food production. Research is underway, however, into ways to make biofuel without impacting so heavily on the land.

SCIENCE SOLUTIONS

Bacteria for Fuel In the future, fuel may be manufactured by adding artificially-created genetic material to bacteria. The artificial material will make the bacteria produce methane gas or hydrogen gas. The bacteria can be grown on any food medium, including household waste.

Going Nuclear Another renewable energy option is nuclear power. Many countries are debating how far to extend their nuclear programs. There are issues of high cost and safety to consider, but most experts agree that nuclear power must form part of the energy

Solar power brings benefits to people living in places where the supply of electricity is limited. It is used for cooking, lighting, and powering appliances such as computers.

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The Race to Control the Population

What About Me? Each of us may be only 1 in 7 billion, but we can still play a part in addressing the issues relating to the population crisis. Every individual has a responsibility to do what he or she can to protect and improve our world for future generations.

Take Direct Action When you see huge chimneys belching pollutants into the atmosphere, it is easy to think that the problems of global warming and climate change are mostly caused by big industry, on a scale we are powerless to change. However, if each person in the developed world changed his or her consumption habits, it really would make a difference to the level of carbon dioxide emissions, and to the rate at which other resources are being used.

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Consider the number of cars in your family, and the number of journeys they make. What if those cars were run on emissionfree electricity? Consider too how many showers you take, and for how long. Can you reduce your levels of consumption in other ways? Perhaps your family buys more food than it needs, and throws too much of it in the garbage. Are you recycling as much of your waste as you can? Could the temperature on your home’s heating system be one degree lower in winter?

We can each play our part by making choices about how much of Earth’s precious resources we consume in our daily lives.

Using Fewer Resources

Spreading the Word If the issue of overpopulation matters to you, raise awareness of it. Give a talk at your school to share your concerns and encourage others to change their habits. Contact your local government representatives to tell them what you think and influence their policy decisions. Why stop there? Tell your senator, or even the president. People power can bring change. You can also support organizations that are trying to solve the problems of overpopulation. Give your time to a charity that is helping to educate women or giving farmers better crop varieties to sow, for example, or think of creative ways to raise funds for them. When it comes to thinking about your career, perhaps you can play a part yourself, as a scientist, policy maker, charity worker, campaigner, or teacher.

Awareness is increasing of the challenges we face in dealing with issues such as climate change and safeguarding the world for the future.

COUNTDOWN! In May 2013, daily measurements of carbon dioxide at a U.S. government agency lab on Hawaii topped 400 parts per million for the first time since records began, in 1958. The last time levels were regularly above this level was 3 to 5 million years ago, before humans even existed.

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CHAPTER SIX

The Future Experts agree that the global population is growing too fast, but they do not agree on exactly what is likely to happen to it in future. This is mainly because making accurate predictions is very difficult. If the fertility rate increases by just 0.3 children more than is currently estimated, for example, the population by 2300 will be four times bigger than today’s estimate.

Population Ups and Downs Some experts say that as developing countries become wealthier, their rate of population growth will slow. They will still continue to grow, however. Meanwhile, in developed countries the rate of growth will continue to slow, which means that in an increasing number of these countries the population will actually fall. During this century, Europe’s share of the world

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population could fall from 12 percent to 6 percent, while Africa’s could almost double, from 13 percent to 25 percent. Could this be a regular sight in the future? On our overcrowded planet all resources will come under pressure, including food.

The Future

Disaster Around the Corner

Taking Action

Some people fear that, in the not too distant future, the pressure of overpopulation on land, water, and food supplies in developing countries will become intolerable. A catastrophic event, such as a war, would then impact severely on a population. Or there could be smaller local conflicts over resources. Prices for these resources would then rise, putting even more pressure on the poorest people.

The results of our overexploitation of the world’s resources are global warming and climate change. Experts agree these are a real and serious threat, but governments around the world are being slow to implement policies to control emissions of carbon dioxide at a high enough rate to make a significant difference. How serious does climate change have to get before enough action is taken to reverse it?

COUNTDOWN! Introducing policies to combat climate change will cost a lot of money. This is one reason why governments have been reluctant to take action. They also do not want to risk making their country uncompetitive by imposing these costs when other countries are not. However,

in 2006 a panel of experts concluded that although the cost of curbing climate change will be high, the cost of not curbing it would be 20 times higher because of the severe damage it could cause our economies.

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The Race to Control the Population

Human Ingenuity Human beings are amazingly inventive. Throughout history we have used our intelligence to find solutions to our problems. Faced with the crisis of population growth, and the challenges it brings to raise people out of poverty and to protect our planet, we will need to use all our inventiveness. Overpopulation is a complex problem, and the solution will take many forms.

Science At Work One part of the solution is geoengineering. This is a relatively new science. It involves the deliberate, large-scale manipulation of Earth’s environment, to cool the planet and reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. There are two main ways of doing this. The first is to reflect more of the sun’s heat away from the planet and back into space. The second is to remove the carbon dioxide that is already in the atmosphere, for example, by increasing the ability of the oceans to soak up carbon dioxide. These technologies have not yet been tested on a global scale, and much more research is needed before it can be proved that the technologies will work. Scientists are also looking at innovative ways to improve the food supply. They now understand the genetic code of the crop wheat, so they can better develop new, improved wheat varieties. A chemical has been developed, too, that can be sprayed onto crops to make them more resistant to drought.

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Protecting our planet’s precious atmosphere could provide one of the solutions to Earth’s growing overpopulation problem.

The Future

New Protein Source

Out of This World

As meat becomes increasingly expensive to produce and to buy, we might replace that protein in our diets by eating more insects, which are plentiful and cheap. The Dutch government recently invested 1 million euros to carry out research in this field, and to prepare legislation governing insect farms.

If the overpopulation on Earth becomes really critical, some people say we should prepare for moving to another planet altogether. Research is underway into the possibilities of setting up colonies on Mars. It would take about seven months to get there—and be a one-way journey.

SCIENCE SOLUTIONS

Hydrogen Vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel could produce pollution-free transportation in future. Their only waste product is water. This is still new technology, but vehicles have been designed that can travel up to 500 miles (800 km), at speeds of up to 50 miles per hour (80 km/h), on hydrogen fuel cells.

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The Race to Control the Population

A Common Goal

Working Together

Earth is at a critical point in its history. People in the developed world need to change the way they live and consume resources, if the planet is to cope. In developing countries, the birth rate needs to fall, and people need to be raised out of poverty, through education and other opportunities. If they are to enjoy a lifestyle similar to ours, we must find ways to share the planet’s limited resources more fairly, and make the best use of them.

There is an enormous worldwide effort being made to respond to the population crisis and its effects. Development is being encouraged in developing countries, in a sustainable way. Governments lead some development, and some happens in small-scale projects in local communities. As developing countries become more prosperous, their population growth will slow. Meanwhile, people in developed countries are becoming more aware of their own overconsumption. We can all maintain our living standards while still reducing our impact on the environment. Individually, and together, we can make a difference.

People in developing countries argue that they and future generations have the right to the same standard of living as those in developed areas.

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The Future

Global Opportunities The world is more interconnected than ever before. With just a few clicks on a keyboard, we can find out about what is happening almost anywhere around the globe. Goods and services created in one part of the world are increasingly available in so many others. Educated young people in developing countries have opportunities to offer their skills to businesses that may be based thousands of miles away. This globalization can help to narrow the gap between the world’s richest and poorest people.

The modern world offers many opportunities for people to connect with each other, and to work together to solve the problems associated with overpopulation.

LOOK

TO THE

PAST

History shows us that we can bring about change to improve our lives. Over the past few centuries, we have created an agricultural revolution, a scientific revolution, an industrial revolution, and a health care revolution. All of these changes have enabled populations to grow, and raised living standards for millions of people. They have also brought the challenges we have seen in this book. In order to move forward to make a fairer, more sustainable world, we need to be prepared to create another revolution in the way we live our lives.

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Glossary atmosphere The layer of air around Earth.

legal Complies with the laws of a country.

biofuel Fuel made from plants or from domestic or agricultural waste.

life expectancy The number of years a person can expect to live, based on the average length of a life in that person’s country.

climate change A change in global climate patterns, due largely to an increase in carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere. contraception A method of preventing a woman from becoming pregnant after sex.

malaria A disease that is passed from mosquitoes to humans.

demographers People who study populations.

migration A process by which people leave their country of origin to live permanently in another country.

developed world The wealthiest countries, such as the United States, with strong economies and a high standard of living. developing world The poorest countries, many of them found in Africa and Asia, where there is a great deal of poverty. economic migrants People who move to live in another country in search of a higher standard of living.

mortality The number of people who die. optimism Hope for the future. prosperous To be wealthy and to have far more than is needed for survival. radiotherapy A cancer treatment that delivers a targeted dose of radiation to the site of the tumor.

fossil fuels Coal, oil, and gas, formed underground over millions of years.

resources Oil, coal, gas, food, water and other essential supplies required by people for survival.

genetically modified (GM) crops Plants that have been genetically manipulated to make them more efficient.

solar power The energy of the sun used to make electricity.

global warming The increase in temperature of Earth’s atmosphere. hydroelectric power The energy of moving water used to create electric power. infant mortality The number of babies who die before they reach the age of one. infrastructure The buildings, transportation and communication systems, and services that support a country or area.

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livestock Farm animals.

sustainable Not depleting or damaging resources or environments. vaccination A way of protecting a person from getting a disease by giving them a small, harmless dose of that disease. water table The level below which the ground is full of water.

Further Reading Books Andregg, Michael M. Seven Billion and Counting: The Crisis in Global Population Growth. Springfield, MO: 21st Century Publishing Group, 2014. Anniss, Matt. Planet Under Pressure: Too Many People On Earth? (Ask the Experts). New York, NY: Gareth Stevens, 2013. Berlatsky, Noah. Population Growth (Global Viewpoints). Farmington Hills, MI: Greenhaven Press, 2009. McLeish, Ewan. Population Explosion (Can the Earth Survive?). New York, NY: Rosen Central, 2009. Steele, Philip. Population Growth (Earth’s Changing Landscape). Mankato, MN: The Creative Company, 2004.

Web Sites Due to the changing nature of Internet links, Rosen Publishing has developed an online list of Web sites related to the subject of this book. This site is updated regularly. Please use this link to access the list: http://www.rosenlinks.com/WIC/Pop

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Index Africa 22, 32, 34, 36, 40 agriculture 7, 16, 17, 18, 19, 23, 26, 34–35, 43 alternative energy sources 23, 36–37 Asia 12, 13, 19, 21, 28–29, 32, 36 atmospheric pollution 20, 22, 38 Australia 22 baby boom 7 biofuels 37 birth rates 6–7, 13, 14, 15, 25, 26, 28, 31, 44 “brain drain” 11 Britain 21, 36 cancer treatment 9 Central America 33 children 6, 7, 8, 10, 13, 14, 15, 19, 26, 27, 28–29, 30, 31, 36, 40 China 12, 21, 28–29, 32, 36 cities 4, 19, 21, 23, 29 climate change 20, 22, 25, 27, 33, 38, 41 congestion 20, 21 contraception 27 death rates 6, 7, 8 deforestation 19, 33 demography 6, 14 desalination 17 desertification 19 drought 17, 22, 23, 34, 43 education 5, 10, 11, 13, 19, 21, 25, 27, 30–31, 34, 36, 39, 44 environmental issues 5, 12, 16–17, 19, 20–23, 33, 36 Europe 11, 13, 16, 21, 32, 36, 40 family planning 27, 30 flooding 21, 23

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food supplies 7, 10, 17, 18, 19, 23, 34–35, 40, 41, 43 fossil fuels 22, 23, 36 genetically modified (GM) crops 35 geoengineering 42 global footprint 16 global population, total 4 global warming 18, 22, 25, 38, 41 globalization 45 health care 5, 8–9, 10, 13, 19, 21 housing 5, 10, 19, 21, 22 hydroelectric power 36 hydrogen fuel 37, 43 India 12, 13, 19, 27 infant mortality 8 infrastructure 13, 36 Japan 13 Kenya 34 Kyoto Protocol 25 land use 16, 19, 20, 34, 37 life expectancy 9, 10 malaria 8 migration 10–11 mortality see death rates North America 32 see also United States nuclear energy 37 one-child policy 28–29 overconsumption of resources 12, 20, 32–33, 44 personal action, taking 38–39 pollution 20–21, 22, 38

population growth 4, 5, 6–7, 13, 19, 24, 25, 29, 32, 40, 42, 44 population mushrooms 15 population pyramids 14 poverty 19, 24, 25, 26, 30, 42, 44 radiotherapy 9 rain forests 33 renewable energy see alternative energy sources resources 4, 5, 12, 16–17, 20, 22, 24, 25, 26, 32, 35, 38, 41, 44 Russia 15 science and technology 9, 17, 19, 23, 25, 27, 35, 36–37, 42–43 shrinking populations 13, 15, 40 solar power 36, 37 South America 33 sprawl, city 21 sustainable development 44 sustainable technologies 23, 25, 27, 36–37 transportation 20, 38, 43 United Nations 13, 25 United States 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 18, 21, 25, 36, 39 vaccination 8, 19 vehicles 20, 38, 43 waste 18, 20, 33, 37, 38 water supplies 16–17, 20, 23, 34, 41 water table 17 weather extremes 22–23 wind power 36 women 14, 27, 29, 31, 39 World Health Organization (WHO) 25

The Race to Control the Population The Race to End Epidemics

The Race to Control the Population

The Race to Feed the Hungry The Race to Find Energy The Race to Fix the Global Economy The Race to Survive Climate Change

WORLD IN CRISIS

titles in this series

WORLD IN CRISIS

The Race to Control the

Population

Hardyman

ROSEN

Robyn Hardyman