The Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics 9780190050993, 0190050993

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T h e Ox f o r d H a n d b o o k o f

JA PA N E SE P OL I T IC S

The Oxford Handbook of

JAPANESE POLITICS Edited by

ROBERT J. PEKKANEN and

SAADIA M. PEKKANEN

1

1 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2022 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Cataloging-in-Publication Data is on file at the Library of Congress ISBN 978–0–19–005099–3 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America

To our favorite collaboration, Sophia.

Contents

About the Editorsxiii Contributorsxv

1. Japanese Politics: An Introduction Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen

1

PA RT I   D OM E ST IC P OL I T IC A L AC TOR S A N D I N ST I T U T ION S 2. The Japanese Constitution Kenneth Mori McElwain

23

3. Japanese Electoral Systems since 1947 Steven R. Reed

41

4. The Role of the Prime Minister in Japan Aurelia George Mulgan

57

5. The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking Mikitaka Masuyama

75

6. The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Bureaucracy Steven K. Vogel

101

7. The Japanese Judiciary J. Mark Ramseyer

117

8. Local Government in Japan Ken Victor Leonard Hijino

135

viii   contents

PA RT I I   P OL I T IC A L PA RT I E S A N D C OA L I T ION S 9. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party: Changes in Party Organization under Shinzō Abe Kuniaki Nemoto

161

10. The Era of Coalition Government in Japan: The Institutional Logic of Surplus Majorities and Strange Bedfellows Michael F. Thies

183

11. Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin

201

12. The Political Opposition in Japan Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies

223

PA RT I I I   P OL IC YM A K I N G A N D T H E P U B L IC 13. The Policymaking Process in Japan Tomohito Shinoda 14. The Effect of Changing Political Contexts on Public Opinion in Japan, 1945–2020 Yukio Maeda

245

263

15. Gender and Politics in Japan Gill Steel and Sherry Martin

281

16. Civil Society in Japan Akihiro Ogawa

299

17. Populism in Japan Robert A. Fahey, Airo Hino, and Robert J. Pekkanen

317

PA RT I V   P OL I T IC A L E C ON OM Y A N D S O C IA L P OL IC Y 18. METI’s Miraculous Comeback and the Uncertain Future of Japanese Industrial Policy Gregory W. Noble

353

contents   ix

19. Energy Policy in Japan: Revisiting Radical Incrementalism Llewelyn Hughes

377

20. Social Welfare Policy in Japan Margarita Estévez-Abe

395

21. The Farm Lobby and Agricultural Policy in Japan Patricia L. Maclachlan and Kay Shimizu

415

22. The Bank of Japan: Central Bank Independence and the Politicization of Monetary Policy Gene Park

433

23. Social Inequality in Japan David Chiavacci

451

24. Immigration and Democracy in Japan Michael Strausz

471

PA RT V   I N T E R NAT IONA L R E L AT ION S F R A M E WOR K S 25. Japan’s Grand Strategy for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Narushige Michishita

493

26. Japan and International Organizations Phillip Y. Lipscy and Nobuhiko Tamaki

515

27. International Status and Japan David Leheny

535

PA RT V I   I N T E R NAT IONA L P OL I T IC A L E C ON OM Y 28. Japanese Trade Policy Christina L. Davis

557

29. Finance and Japan Saori N. Katada and Yoichi Nemoto

581

30. Foreign Direct Investment in Japan: Growth, Trends, and Policy Efforts Mark Manger

601

x   contents

31. Japan and the Environment Kim Reimann

621

32. Japan and Economic Regionalism in Asia Hidetaka Yoshimatsu

643

33. Linkages between Security and Economics in Japan Keisuke Iida

663

PA RT V I I   I N T E R NAT IONA L SE C U R I T Y 34. Remilitarization in Japan Christopher W. Hughes 35. Global and Regional Security Multilateralism in Japan’s Foreign Policy Paul Midford

681

701

36. Japan and Nuclear Nonproliferation Mike Mochizuki

723

37. Japanese Naval Power Alessio Patalano

741

38. Neoclassical Realism in Japan’s Space Security Saadia M. Pekkanen

763

39. Cybersecurity in Japan Benjamin Bartlett

791

PA RT V I I I   F OR E IG N R E L AT ION S 40. Japan-US Relations: The Most Important Bilateral Relationship in the World Ellis S. Krauss

811

41. Japan-China Relations: Politics of Great Powers and Great Power Politics Ming Wan

833

contents   xi

42. The Japan-South Korea Rift: “Inside” and “Outside” Pressures on Relations847 Alexandra Sakaki 43. The Evolution of Japan-ASEAN Relations: Core Moves for Japan’s Initiatives in Asian Regionalism beyond Southeast Asia Takashi Terada

867

44. Japan-India Relations: From Weak Links to Stronger Ties Purnendra Jain

885

45. Japan-EU Relations Marie Söderberg

905

46. Japan-Russia Relations Alexander Bukh

919

Index

937

About the Editors

Robert J. Pekkanen is Professor at the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, and Adjunct Professor of Sociology at the University of Washington. He received his PhD in political science from Harvard University in 2002. His research interests lie in electoral systems, political parties, interview methods, and nonprofits or civil society. He has published articles in political science journals such as the American Political Science Review, the British Journal of Political Science, and Comparative Political Studies, as well Asian studies journals, including the Journal of Asian Studies and the Journal of Japanese Studies. He has published ten books in English on electoral systems, American nonprofit advocacy, Japanese civil society, and Japanese elections and political parties, and there are translations or Japanese versions of two of his books. His first book, Japan’s Dual Civil Society: Members without Advocates (2006), won the Masayoshi Ohira Prize in 2008 and also an award from the Japanese Nonprofit Research Association (JANPORA) in 2007. The Japan Times also featured it as one of the “Best Asia Books” of 2006. A Japanese translation appeared in 2008. Another book, The Rise and Fall of Japan’s LDP: Political Party Organizations as Historical Institutions (2010; coauthored with Ellis  S.  Krauss), has earned praise in a wide range of reviews. A coauthored article in the Social Science Japan Journal won the 2014 ISS/Oxford Prize for Modern Japanese Studies, awarded by the Institute of Social Science of the University of Tokyo and Oxford University Press. Pekkanen has coedited three books on Japanese elections, most recently Japan Decides 2017 about the October 2017 Japanese general election. Pekkanen also coedited the Oxford Handbook of Electoral Systems (2018). Pekkanen’s research has been supported by the Mellon Foundation, Japan­-U.S. Friendship Commission, Social Science Research Council, National Endowment for the Humanities, and National Science Foundation, among others. Saadia M. Pekkanen is the Job and Gertrud Tamaki Endowed Professor at the University of Washington in Seattle. In addition to this appointment in the Henry  M.  Jackson School of International Studies, she is Adjunct Professor in the Department of Political Science and Adjunct Professor in the School of Law, where she also teaches courses. She earned master’s degrees from Columbia University and Yale Law School, and a doctorate from Harvard University in government. She works at the intersection of international relations and international law, specializing in the commercial, legal, and security policies shaping outer space affairs. She also investigates contemporary geopolitical change through the lens of infrastructure investment in maritime ports. Her regional

xiv   about the editors expertise is in the foreign affairs of Japan and Asia, engaging broader themes of states, strategy, and governance in the world order. She is the author of Picking Winners? From Technology Catch-up to the Space Race in Japan (2003); coauthor of In Defense of Japan: From the Market to the Military in Space Policy (2010); coeditor of the Oxford Handbook of the International Relations of Asia (2014); editor of Asian Designs: Governance in the Contemporary World Order (2016); guest editor of the symposium on “The New Space Race” for the American Journal of International Law Unbound (2019); and coeditor of the forthcoming Oxford Handbook of Space Security. She is deeply committed to connecting interdisciplinary academic research and education to the policy world through various activities. She is the founding codirector of the UW Space Policy and Research Center, which brings together perspectives from STEM, social sciences, and humanities to raise public awareness about the importance of preserving peaceful prospects in outer space. She is also the founding cochair of the U.S.-Japan Space Forum, administered by the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation in Washington, DC, and Tokyo, which regularly carries out 1.5 Track dialogues with binational stakeholders drawn from government, business, military, academia, media, and the general public. She takes a keen interest in the teaching and practice of qualitative methods, and in leveraging their ethnographic sensibilities for big data and other studies in the social sciences. She is the founding director of the Qualitative Multi-Methods Research Program, which seeks to build, train, and advance researchers’ professional skills to interrogate the social context of data through diverse qualitative methods and techniques.

Contributors

Benjamin Bartlett, Miami University Alexander Bukh, Victoria University of Wellington David Chiavacci, University of Zurich Christina L. Davis, Harvard University Margarita Estévez-Abe, Syracuse University Robert A. Fahey, Waseda University Aurelia George Mulgan, UNSW Canberra at the Australian Defence Force Academy Ken Victor Leonard Hijino, Kyoto University Airo Hino, Waseda University Christopher W. Hughes, University of Warwick Llewelyn Hughes, Australian National University Keisuke Iida, University of Tokyo Purnendra Jain, University of Adelaide Saori N. Katada, University of Southern California Axel Klein, University of Duisburg-Essen Ellis S. Krauss, University of California, San Diego David Leheny, Waseda University Phillip Y. Lipscy, University of Toronto Patricia L. Maclachlan, University of Texas, Austin Yukio Maeda, University of Tokyo Mark Manger, University of Toronto Sherry Martin, US Department of State Mikitaka Masuyama, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan Kenneth Mori McElwain, University of Tokyo

xvi   contributors Levi McLaughlin, North Carolina State University Narushige Michishita, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan Paul Midford, Norwegian University of Science and Technology Mike Mochizuki, George Washington University Kuniaki Nemoto, Musashi University Yoichi Nemoto, Hitotsubashi University Gregory W. Noble, University of Tokyo Akihiro Ogawa, University of Melbourne Gene Park, Loyola Marymount University Alessio Patalano, King’s College London Robert J. Pekkanen, University of Washington Saadia M. Pekkanen, University of Washington J. Mark Ramseyer, Harvard University Steven R. Reed, Chuo University Kim Reimann, Georgia State University Alexandra Sakaki, German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ethan Scheiner, University of California, Davis Kay Shimizu, University of Pittsburgh Tomohito Shinoda, International University of Japan Marie Söderberg, Stockholm School of Economics Gill Steel, Doshisha University Michael Strausz, Texas Christian University Nobuhiko Tamaki, Chuo University Takashi Terada, Doshisha University Michael F. Thies, University of California, Los Angeles Steven K. Vogel, University of California, Berkeley Ming Wan, George Mason University Hidetaka Yoshimatsu, Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University

chapter 1

Ja pa n ese Politics An Introduction Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen

The study of Japanese politics has flourished over the past several decades. In the 1980s, there were intense debates about Japan’s industrial policy. In the 1990s, Japan’s major electoral reform created a spate of new research agendas. In the twenty-­first century, the rising power of the prime minister has attracted considerable attention. In international relations, the return to great power competition has drawn attention to the standing of the United States and the rise of China in the world. These realities have also increased scrutiny on Japan’s security policy, through the lens of remilitarization and alliance partnerships as well as new areas such as space security and cybersecurity that have sprung up. As a result, there are several rich literatures in the field of Japanese politics, and the time is right for an Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics. We imagined this volume as serving several purposes at the same time. In the first instance, it is a Handbook for students and researchers of Japanese politics to place the state of the field. The increasing diversity of scholarship on Japanese politics means that even experts may not be as familiar with all the aspects covered in this volume (we ourselves learned a huge amount from the contributors). Another goal for this volume is to introduce Japanese politics to readers less familiar with Japan. Comparativists looking for a quick primer on the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, say, or Japan’s remilitarization, will, we hope, find a lucid introduction in the chapters in this volume. A third purpose was to shine a light on Japan’s democracy, which continues to be highly evaluated by sources such as Freedom House, even as many observers see “­democratic erosion” in other parts of the globe. The rise of populists around the world makes the strength of Japan’s democracy more important, and more interesting comparatively, than ever before. In the same way, Japan’s contribution to the liberal international order is of intense interest to us. So we asked each chapter author to comment, where appropriate, on what their chapter revealed about “evaluating Japan’s democracy.” For some chapters, this theme was woven tightly into the substance of the chapter. Moreover, authors connected to this theme in almost every chapter. However, in those

2   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen where it did not seem relevant to draw a straight line from their topic to democracy, we agreed with the authors that it would be better to omit the discussion than to include a forced one that would not serve readers. Looking across the volume, we read the results generally as an endorsement of the vitality of Japan’s democracy. This is encouraging for supporters of democracy. Of course, the picture can be quite complicated. Rather than summarize the quite diverse contributions here, we invite readers to dip into the chapters for the authors’ takes. There’s also no room in this Introduction to engage in an extended analysis of Japanese democracy. Instead, in the spirit of the Oxford Handbooks, we also encourage readers to consult works focused on Japanese democracy (e.g., Haddad 2012; Ishida and Krauss 1989; Kitaoka 2020; Richardson 1997; Takenaka 2014) and elections (Pekkanen et al. 2013, 2015, 2018). The range of topics covered in this Handbook is formidable. Of course, not even a Handbook of this scope can cover the entirety of Japanese politics, and there must inevitably be areas or topics that are omitted. It was our goal, however, to cover as many of the most important areas in Japanese politics as possible. Thanks to a startlingly good team of contributors, we believe we have succeeded in that initial ambition. We have organized the Handbook into two broad parts, roughly corresponding to domestic Japanese politics and Japan’s international politics. This separation follows ­conventional disciplinary lines, but does not in any way imply that domestic politics and international relations are not connected. Within the domestic politics part, we established four distinct sections. We began with “Domestic Political Actors and Institutions” to examine the cornerstones of domestic politics, including, for example, the Japanese Constitution and the bureaucracy. In the second section, our authors covered “Political Parties and Coalitions.” Certainly, political parties are at the heart of politics. In the third section, we asked authors to examine “Policymaking and the Public.” This section provides overviews of the policymaking process, public opinion, civil society, and populism. These are diverse topics, but all fit under a conception of that section. The final domestic politics section is “Political Economy and Social Policy.” In this section, we are able to examine a broad range of policy issues from industrial policy through social welfare to immigration policy. The second part of the book covers Japan’s international relations. This part is also broken into four sections. The first section provides three overarching frameworks: grand strategy, international organizations, and status. The second section covers international political economy (IPE). The final chapter in this section on IPE provides a link to the next section, “International Security,” by covering the topic of economic-­security linkages. The chapters in the “International Security” section range from long-­standing areas of interest such as Japan’s remilitarization and naval power through new areas such as space security and cybersecurity. “Foreign Relations” is the final section of the international relations part. In this section, we asked authors to cover Japan’s relation with several key areas in its foreign affairs. This includes, of course, the United States and China, Japan’s most important bilateral relations. We also cover relations with other nations, such as South Korea, much in the news because of conflicts, and India, much in the news because of strengthening ties. In addition, a range of other relations are surveyed, from Southeast Asia through the European Union to Russia.

Japanese Politics: An Introduction   3 In the remainder of this Introduction, we will provide some more detail on the ­individual chapters to further orient the reader to the volume.

Domestic Politics The first large section of the Handbook covers domestic politics. This is the home terrain of comparative politics, to be sure, but we construe “politics” broadly here and include chapters on a fairly wide variety of topics. We are also not bound strictly by disciplinary convention in our choice of authors, but instead have brought in scholars from multiple disciplines to address these topics, although of course political science is very well represented

Domestic Political Actors and Institutions We begin the part on “Domestic Politics” and the section on “Domestic Political Actors and Institutions” with a chapter on “The Japanese Constitution” authored by Kenneth Mori McElwain. It is appropriate for this chapter to serve as the opening chapter of the part and section, due to the foundational nature of constitutions in general, and the Japanese Constitution in particular. As McElwain points out, the Constitution of Japan is the oldest unamended constitution in the world. McElwain’s chapter examines what accounts for constitutional stability in comparative perspective, and the implications for Japanese politics. To start, McElwain finds that the Constitution of Japan is, in cross-­ national perspective, uncommonly short. As a result, many details regarding political institutions that might elsewhere be covered in a constitution are, in Japan, determined instead by law. Because of this, institutional rules can be altered by regular legislation, which diminishes the need for constitutional amendments to effect structural change. McElwain also argues that strong disagreements among elites and citizens alike have stalled polarizing constitutional revisions. A supermajority of legislators support constitutional revision, but there is no consensus on which amendments to make or whether these are more important than socioeconomic issues. McElwain contends that public opinion is similarly divided, although there is more consistent support for progressive amendments (such as new rights to privacy and the environment) rather than for amendments favored by the LDP and conservatives, such as revisions to Article 9. Following the chapter on the constitution, the volume proceeds with a chapter on another key institution, the electoral system. Steven R. Reed authors “Japanese Electoral Systems since 1947.” In this chapter, Reed covers the electoral systems used for national elections in Japan since 1947. The more powerful lower house, the House of Representatives, has used two different electoral systems, and the electoral system change of 1994 has been one of the main topics of much of the analysis of Japanese ­politics over the succeeded decades. The House of Councillors, or upper house, has used

4   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen three different electoral systems. Reed argues that electoral systems powerfully ­influence the quality of democracy. In particular, Reed’s analysis examines how each system has affected this, focusing particularly on malapportionment and alternation in power. Reed shows the long-­lasting effects of the first electoral system, and how difficult it is to change the institutions and practices that developed along with the party system under those systems. Along with the change in the electoral system, perhaps the most important empirical change in domestic politics in Japan over the past few decades has been the role of the prime minister. Accordingly, in the next chapter Aurelia George Mulgan analyzes “The Role of the Prime Minister in Japan.” She contends that Japan has often lacked decisive political leadership, with strong prime ministers the exception rather than the rule. This is despite a constitutional and parliamentary cabinet system that provides considerable power to the prime minister. According to her analysis, several factors have undermined prime ministerial power and influence in policymaking, including informal rules, political conventions, and other practices. However, there is a strong trend in increasing prime ministerial power, stemming from both evolutionary change and reforms in several political and administrative systems. The prime minister’s role as leader of the ruling party, policymaker, and leader of the nation have all changed in important ways. These changes have culminated in the creation of a “prime ministerial executive” in which the prime minister and the office of the prime minister hold considerable power over the government, cabinet, ruling coalition, and the bureaucracy. From the prime minister, it is a natural transition to the legislature. In the next ­chapter, “The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking,” Mikitaka Masuyama ­provides an overview of the legislature as an institution. Dating back to 1890, Japan’s Diet is the oldest non-­Western parliament. Illustrated with many vivid specific examples, Masuyama explains how Diet rules and procedures strongly influence legislative behavior. He explains the practice of “cow-­ walking,” and how it can influence ­legislation. However, Masuyama cautions that one-­party dominance by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) can make government-­opposition relations permanently asymmetric. Although perceived to be in relative decline, the bureaucracy has long been seen as perhaps the strongest pillar in Japan’s government. The bureaucracy has also attracted considerable scholarly attention. Steven  K.  Vogel studies “The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Bureaucracy.” Vogel argues that Japan has benefited from a highly competent and powerful central bureaucracy. The bureaucracy contributed to Japan’s success in rapid economic growth, education, health, and international relations. Japan’s regime found a balance between democratic politics and strong administrative capacity, with partial insulation from pressure by interest groups. This partial insulation limited the participation of civic groups and minority interests. Starting in the 1970s, bureaucratic dominance began to decline, with the rise of politicians. In the 1990s, bureaucrats faced even greater challenges, including the devastating “bubble” financial crisis that ended the high-­growth period, erosion of bureaucratic prestige due to several scandals, and the transformative electoral reform. Political leaders also engaged in administrative

Japanese Politics: An Introduction   5 reforms that increased the power of the Prime Minister’s Office and the cabinet, and thus politicians in general. Nevertheless, Vogel concludes, Japan’s bureaucracy has retained some important powers. Another important actor is the subject of J. Mark Ramseyer’s chapter, “The Japanese Judiciary.” In this chapter, Ramseyer provides an overview of research on the Japanese judiciary. He finds generally that Japan possesses a largely honest and meritocratic judiciary. However, politicians (the majority party) are able to exercise some influence. This comes through the court’s administrative office, which has the ability to reward and punish judges for the quality of work that they do—powers that the office has exercised. This power has been predominantly exercised to reward good work. It is less likely to be used to punish, because self-­selection into the judiciary means that political intervention is seldom necessary. The final chapter in the “Domestic Political Actors and Institutions” section is “Local Government in Japan” by Ken Victor Leonard Hijino. Hijino argues that Japan’s local government is essential in a fuller understanding of Japan’s democracy. In the chapter, Hijino examines questions of the capacity and autonomy of local government, the impact of local government on national elections and policies, and how responsive and accountable local governments are to residents. Hijino explains the institutional framework of Japan’s local government system, including the recent decentralization reforms, which have increased local governments’ responsibilities and reduced interventions by the national government. Hijino also explores questions of local representation and intergovernmental relations. In addition, Hijino examines two of the key challenges facing local government: depopulation and improving representation. Turning to the influence of local government on national politics and policies, Hijino find that local governments have a significant impact. Local policy innovations affect national policies, and local lobbying can also change those policies.

Political Parties and Coalitions The second section of the volume is “Political Parties and Coalitions.” The chapters in this section span the gamut from the most ruling of ruling parties, the Liberal Democratic Party, through coalition ally Kōmeitō (and coalitions per se), to the opposition parties. It seems only appropriate to begin this section with Kuniaki Nemoto’s chapter, “Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party: Changes in Party Organizations under Shinzō Abe.” Nemoto provides a substantial review of the literature on the LDP party organization, with a particular focus on factions and the role of the Policy Affairs Research Council (PARC) in policymaking. Nemoto argues that norms of posts allocation and decentralized policymaking are inefficient and unlikely to persist. After electoral reform, Japanese politics are more party-­centered, and the cabinet cannot afford to bow to factional demands, but instead will seek to appoint able and loyal agents to implement public policy formulated in a top-­down process. Nemoto also goes on to evaluate the LDP under

6   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen Abe’s second administration. He draws the tentative conclusion that the LDP of today differs from the “old LDP” before the 1990s. Eschewing pre-­reform governance styles, the second Abe administration adeptly adapted to the new institutional environment. In short, Nemoto provides a historically and theoretically informed analysis of the state of the LDP. The LDP is the long-­ruling behemoth of Japanese party politics, but in the twenty-­ first century, the LDP has governed in coalition. Thus, we turn from the LDP to coalitions, in a chapter by Michael F. Thies, “The Era of Coalition Government in Japan: The Institutional Logic of Surplus Majorities and Strange Bedfellows.” Thies points out that the LDP ruled alone almost without exception in the first four decades after it was created in 1955, but the situation has been different in recent decades. Since the LDP lost power in 1993, just before electoral reform, coalition government has been the norm. However, it is not as widely appreciated that since 1999 every coalition has included a party that held a lower house majority by itself. In other words, majority parties have consistently taken on coalition partners. Thies argues that these “oversized” coalition governments are driven by parliamentary bicameralism, and also by the mixed-­member electoral system. The LDP’s consistent coalition partner for the past few decades has been Kōmeitō. So, our attention naturally turns next to Kōmeitō in a chapter by Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin, “Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics.” The coauthors ­provide a sweeping survey of the history, operation in coalition, support base, and key policies of Kōmeitō (sometimes called in English the Clean Government Party, but more frequently in recent years simply called “Kōmeitō”). Klein and McLaughlin argue that Kōmeitō, with its strong base in the lay Buddhist movement Sōka Gakkai, is not easily classified into any comparative political science categorization. They examine the history of the party from its origin in 1964 as an outgrowth of the Sōka Gakkai organization, through its increasing institutional disaggregation from Sōka Gakkai following a formal separation in 1970. The authors also explore the role of the party in Japan’s changing political system in the 1990s, before turning to its coalition with the LDP from 1999. Klein and McLaughlin bring their analysis to the present, and draw on elections data, party publications, interviews with Kōmeitō politicians, ethnography within Sōka Gakkai, and other sources to study the party—which they argue holds a pivotal position within Japanese politics. Having covered both the major governing parties and coalitions per se, it is natural to turn next to the opposition. We do so in “The Political Opposition in Japan” by Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies. They point out that the Liberal Democratic Party has been astonishingly successful, governing for almost all of the period since its founding in 1955. The flip side of this, necessarily, is that the “opposition” has been astonishingly unsuccessful. Their failures have become so ingrained that, even when the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ruled (2009–2012), many political commentators couldn’t help but refer to them still as “the opposition party.” Scheiner and Thies explore the fluctuating patterns and causes of this persistent opposition failure. They identify three distinct periods: (1) opposition as protest (1955–1989), (2) opposition as alternative government

Japanese Politics: An Introduction   7 (1989–2012), and (3) opposition as irrelevance (2012–present). Scheiner and Thies argue that throughout the first period and part of the second, the opposition faced structural disadvantages that impaired its ability to challenge the LDP. Changes in these features enabled the DPJ to challenge and, briefly, defeat the LDP. Surprisingly, however, within a few years, the opposition was consigned to a position of near irrelevance for quite different reasons. The capacity of opposition parties to challenge for power is a central aspect of democracy, and so these findings have important ramifications as we conclude this section on “Political Parties and Coalitions.”

Policymaking and the Public The third section of the book is titled “Policymaking and the Public.” This section features four chapters covering this area. We begin with an explicit analysis of the policymaking process, and then examine public opinion directly, before turning to gender and politics. The remaining two chapters cover civil society, as an aspect of “the public,” as well as exploring populism in Japan. Authored by Tomohito Shinoda, the first chapter of this section on “Policymaking and the Public” dives directly into the topic by exploring “The Policymaking Process in Japan.” Shinoda argues that the policymaking power of the prime minister was significantly limited for many years into the postwar period. The collective responsibility of the cabinet precluded the prime minister from controlling the executive branch independently from the cabinet. Sectionalism resulted from the Cabinet Law, which divided executive power among cabinet ministers. This resulted in bureaucrats’ dominating the policymaking process, as argued by Steven K. Vogel in his chapter on the bureaucracy. The LDP also developed a decentralized, bottom-­up policymaking organization, as discussed by Kuniaki Nemoto. The prime minister, the subject of Aurelia George Mulgan’s chapter, remained weak. However, after the 1994 electoral reform, Diet members faced incentives to become policy generalists, and the role of PARC was weakened. The administrative reform efforts under the Ryūtarō Hashimoto cabinet enhanced the authority of the prime minister and his cabinet. Building on these changes in the first decade of the twenty-­first century, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi developed a top-­ down policymaking process. The DPJ administration further weakened the power of the bureaucracy. The succeeding Shinzō Abe governments were successful in establishing a cabinet-­led policymaking system. The influence of public opinion on policy is a vital question in any country, and perhaps especially so in a democracy. In “The Effect of Changing Political Contexts on Public Opinion in Japan, 1945–2020,” Yukio Maeda argues that the influence of public opinion on policy began after the adoption of the 1947 constitution—except in the limited sense of indirectly through elections to the House of Representatives in the prewar period. This coincided with the period in which research on public opinion began to become widespread. Maeda breaks his analysis into three periods, the first decade after WWII, the period from 1955 to the end of the Cold War, and then the period after the

8   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen end of the Cold War. It was in the second period that ordinary Japanese began to ­understand politics as the struggle between “conservatives” and “progressives,” which was reflected in party competition between the LDP and the Japan Socialist Party (JSP). The intensity of this ideological battle waned over time. After the end of the Cold War, at roughly the same time as electoral reform, the nature of political competition changed drastically. As a result, people began to respond more to the short-­term performance of the incumbent government. In “Gender and Politics in Japan,” Gill Steel and Sherry Martin examine another crucial aspect of Japanese politics. The authors relate the story of the singer and actress Agnes Chan, who took her baby to work at a TV studio in the late 1980s, and Yuka Ogata, a Kumamoto Municipal Assembly member, who took her baby to a meeting in the assembly chambers in 2017. Despite the thirty years separating these acts, very similar public debates broke out after they were reported. Conservatives censured the women, while feminists praised them. Steel and Martin contrast this to the positive reception that New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Arden received in New Zealand for taking her baby to a United Nations General Assembly meeting. The authors argue that Japan, an economically advanced, secular, highly educated country, seems to thwart easy assumptions about modernization and gender. The chapter uses the familiar construct of public/private to analyze the political consequences of this artificial divide. Civil society organizations often make claims of, or are legally connected to, acting in the name of “the public.” In his chapter, “Civil Society in Japan,” Akihiro Ogawa examines nonprofit organizations (NPOs), as well as social movements. After the passage of the so-­called “NPO Law” in 1998, the number of NPOs in Japan increased dramatically. Ogawa focuses on “co-­production,” a technique of policy collaboration between NPOs and the government, under the framework of New Public Governance. Ogawa also examines social movements, with a focus on anti-­nuclear activism, which is one of the most long-­standing and consistent areas of activism in Japan, and which has seen renewed energy after the nuclear disaster of March 11, 2011. Ogawa is able to devote p­articular attention to No Nukes Asia Forum, a pan-­Asian transnational activism that originated in Japan. The final chapter in this section on “Policymaking and the Public” turns to a subject that in recent years has demand huge attention in the world and the academy alike: populism. In their chapter, “Populism in Japan,” Robert  A.  Fahey, Airo Hino, and Robert J. Pekkanen explore this timely topic with a focus on Japan. They argue that the extent of populism in Japan is a contested idea. Some observers see powerful recent prime ministers as nakedly populist politicians, while others assert that populism is nonexistent in Japan, with still others falling somewhere in the middle. In part, these different views stem from differing notions of what exactly “populism” is. There has been a parallel development of the definition of populism in Japanese and comparative contexts. The authors go on to examine recent cases of politicians who have been labeled as “populists,” including former prime ministers Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzō Abe, as well as governors Toru Hashimoto, Yuriko Koike, and Takashi Kawamura. The authors conclude that the most overt expressions of populist politics have been confined to

Japanese Politics: An Introduction   9 regional politics, but national leaders have also borrowed at least limited aspects of ­populist rhetoric and strategy.

Political Economy and Social Policy The final section of the “Domestic Politics” part of this book is “Political Economy and Social Policy.” In this section, authors turn to examinations of particular policy areas that have been seen as the most important or otherwise attracted the most scholarly attention. The perfect chapter to begin this section is probably Gregory  W.  Noble’s “METI’s Miraculous Comeback and the Uncertain Future of Japanese Industrial Policy.” This is because perhaps no policy area has received as much attention as Japan’s industrial policy, to which Noble himself has made important contributions. Noble discusses how the industrial policy of the then Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) garnered acclaim and attention for having created Japan’s “economic miracle” in the 1950s and 1960s, before intellectual revisionism took place in the 1980s and the financial crises of the 1990s further discredited the idea. However, Noble argues that MITI (renamed in 2001 the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, or METI) surprisingly turned bureaucratic and political reforms into a kind of rebirth. The new METI enjoyed expanded jurisdiction and stronger political backing in its efforts to spur dynamism in Japan’s economy. Noble identifies cases, including the electronics industry, where industrial policy bailed out failing firms. As a counterpoint, industrial policy significantly contributed to the success of firms in the critical automobile industry, although METI received little credit for this. Another area that has received significant attention is energy policy, particular in the decade following the March 11, 2011 nuclear disaster. Llewelyn Hughes examines this policy area in “Energy Policy in Japan: Revisiting Radical Incrementalism.” The chapter surveys major changes in Japan’s energy system, with a focus on the period after the March 11, 2011, nuclear disaster at the Fukushima nuclear reactors. Hughes characterizes this as a period of incremental changes that cumulate to radical alterations. Although Japan’s energy policy continues to center concerns about energy security, Hughes contends that climate change is the defining challenge for the Japanese government. Energy use is at the heart of Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions profile. Hughes contributes sectoral analyses of the direction and degree of change across multiple energy sources: nuclear power, renewable energy, coal, electrification, and transport. For Hughes, a key question is the extent to which energy politics is “democratizing,” both in terms of questions of siting for large centralized energy assets such as power plants, and of directly owning or using sources of distributed renewable energy such as rooftop solar power. There has also been considerable debate about the type of welfare policies adopted by Japan. Margarita Estévez-­Abe engages with this question in “Social Welfare Policy in Japan.” She points out that, for a long time, scholars disagreed about the basic facts about Japan’s postwar welfare state. Some observers argue it was too small, while others

10   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen disagree with that premise. Estévez-­Abe seeks to elegantly solve the question by introducing the concept of “functional equivalents.” This concept can explain how social welfare programs and their functional equivalents became important parts of the so-­called Japanese model of capitalism in the postwar period. Pressure for change intensified as a result of socioeconomic conditions that arose in the 1990s—the aging society, economic stagnation, and financial liberalization. Estévez-­Abe goes further in also demonstrating how the changing electoral system context after 1994 differently set the political parameters of welfare politics in the country. There is also a trajectory of change in Japan’s agricultural policy and politics. Patricia L. Maclachlan and Kay Shimizu trace this in “The Farm Lobby and Agricultural Policy in Japan.” The authors contend that Japan’s agricultural policymaking has been changing over the past generation. Agricultural policy formation for much of the postwar era was controlled by the “farm lobby”—an iron triangle of agricultural bureaucrats, conservative politicians, and Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA), a nationwide network of agricultural cooperative organizations. This powerful lobby prioritized the heavy subsidization of farm household incomes and other market-­distorting redistributive measures. However, by the conclusion of the twentieth century, intense demographic and economic challenges combined with the new electoral system to weaken the relative power of the farm lobby. In turn, this led to a graduate shift toward structural reform in the farm sector. In tracing these policy-­related developments, which reached new heights during the second administration of Shinzō Abe, this chapter illuminates the significance of the organized farm vote, the empowerment of prime ministerial leadership, and the changing fortunes of agriculture in Japan. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is another institution that has changed over the past few decades. It has also been much in the news due to its aggressive monetary policy. Gene Park examines the institution and its policies in “The Bank of Japan: Central Bank Independence and the Politicization of Monetary Policy.” In April 1998, the Bank of Japan gained formal independence. The primary justification was to augment the central bank’s inflation-­fighting ability. However, the immediate problem tackled by the newly independent BOJ was a persistent deflation. As the government battled economic stagnation, a lively debate emerged over how much the BOJ should prioritize vanquishing deflation. The policies that emerged represented a profound politicization of monetary policy. The culmination of this came in Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s landslide electoral victory in December 2012. Abe campaigned on “Abenomics” and promised to overcome deflation. Once in power, Abe effectively took control of the BOJ Policy Board in order to reflate the economy. Park thus argues that the democratic electoral process paved the way for a reassertion of control over the still legally independent central bank. He puts his arguments in a broader perspective, seeing this policy arena as part of a broader trend to greater influence of electoral incentives on policy and also centralization of executive power. David Chiavacci examines the issue of “Social Inequality in Japan” in the next chapter. Chiavacci sees inequality as a central issue of modernity in the intersection between the idea of a market economy, with competition as an irreplaceable element, and ­democracy,

Japanese Politics: An Introduction   11 with equality as one of its fundamental principles. According to Chiavacci, Japan’s highly successful solution to this in the postwar period, following a period of intense conflict, was a shared growth model that incorporated redistribution from urban centers to the rural peripheries. Japan became an exemplary success in social and political stability. Increasing incomes and upward mobility, coupled with the redistributive support of the countryside, developed a narrative of Japan as a society dominated by a large middle class. However, since the late 1990s, this model no longer functions, because of anemic growth and social stagnation. Since 2000, Japanese administrations have tried to establish alternative models, including neoliberal growth, welfare growth, and Abenomics, but none have been able to achieve the success of the earlier shared growth model. The final chapter of the “Political Economy and Social Policy” section, and of the “Domestic Politics” first half of the volume, is an examination of “Immigration and Democracy in Japan” by Michael Strausz. He begins by placing the foreign community in Japan into comparative perspective, seeing it as something of an outlier in immigration policy compared with other advanced industrialized countries. Strausz then identifies the competing explanations for Japan’s immigration policies. He goes further to illuminate particulars of Japan’s immigration policies, including the new visa categories that were formalized by the 1989 and the 2018 revisions to the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act. This includes visas for people with Japanese ancestry and “trainees,” and visas for laborers who had been previously excluded, such as agricultural workers and construction workers. Strausz also analyzes Japan’s famously restrictive refugee policy, as well as the relationship between public opinion, civil society, and immigration policy in Japan. He concludes with an analysis of the ways that Japan’s immigration policy and policymaking could impact the future of Japan’s democracy. Ultimately, Strausz argues that the way that Japan deals with both the admission and treatment of foreign laborers will help shape the nature of Japan’s democracy going forward.

International Relations While the first half of the book examines “Domestic Politics,” the second half engages with the “International Relations” of Japan. It is also divided into four sections. The opening section, “International Relations Frameworks,” lays out large thematic approaches for understanding Japan’s international and foreign relations. Succeeding sections focus on more defined, although still broad, areas. The second section is “International Political Economy,” which focuses on the classic IPE areas of trade, finance, and FDI, as well as regionalism and the environment, before concluding with economic-­security linkages. The third section turns to topics under “International Security.” It examines Japan’s capabilities—remilitarization, the nuclear question, naval power—as well as its multilateralism. It also includes two areas likely to be of increasing

12   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen importance: space security and cybersecurity. The final section, on “Foreign Relations,” examines Japan’s most important bilateral relationships with individual countries and regional players.

International Relations Frameworks We begin with three important frameworks for understanding Japan’s international relations. These are not strict takes along the lines of realism, liberal internationalism, and constructivism, but they all certainly contribute to our understanding of the utility of those paradigms (as do other chapters in the international relations part of this book). In “Japan’s Grand Strategy for a Free and Open Indo-­Pacific,” Narushige Michishita discusses two major objectives in Japan’s contemporary grand strategy: maintaining the balance of power in the face of a rising China, and advancing economic prosperity and stability in the Indo-­Pacific region. To achieve these objectives, Japan is strengthening its defense capabilities, security ties with the United States, and security partnerships with Australia, India, Southeast Asian nations, and South Korea. Japan seeks to promote the rule of law, freedom of navigation, and free trade; it also seeks to enhance connectivity and provide capacity-­building assistance to regional partners. Japan’s vision of a Free and Open Indo-­Pacific (FOIP) has evolved over time. In 2018 the Japanese government de-­securitized its FOIP concept in order to ease China’s concern and to make the policy more acceptable to China’s neighbors. It also stopped emphasizing the importance of “universal values” so that countries such as Vietnam and Myanmar could sign up for it. Michishita argues that those decisions indicate that Japan is guided more by realist ­calculations than liberal ideologies. Japan’s emergence as a great power and economic powerhouse has coincided with the  rise of international organizations in global politics. This is a topic taken up by Phillip  Y.  Lipscy and Nobuhiko Tamaki in “Japan and International Organizations,” which now facilitate cooperation in essentially all arenas of international relations. The authors survey major academic debates about Japan and international organizations across three time periods: from the Meiji Restoration until World War II, the postwar liberal international order, and the recent era of contestation. Japan has played a variety of roles—as creator, reformer, and disruptor of international organizations. After World War II, Japan contributed actively to the liberal international order as a key democratic ally of the United States. Recent shifts in the international system and Japanese domestic politics are reconfiguring Japan’s policy toward international organizations, opening exciting avenues for future research. In “International Status and Japan,” David Leheny goes beyond material power, drawing attention to how states and people have shown themselves to be interested as well in status that claims and demonstrates their ostensibly rightful place near or at the top of some kind of acknowledged hierarchy. Because status signaling is so pervasive, even ubiquitous, in global politics, it would be difficult to say that status matters especially to Japan. But Leheny argues status does seem to matter particularly to Japan, in the sense

Japanese Politics: An Introduction   13 that there are particular motifs and themes that have been astonishingly consistent in Japanese social debates about the country’s place as a potential global leader. He traces debates about status and argues that narrative is essential to understanding how status claims work and why they matter. This sets the stage for three highly charged episodes— all of them involving arguments about Japan’s international position—against the backdrop of a widely shared postwar narrative about Japan.

International Political Economy Following these large frameworks, we turn to another area of much work on international relations, namely “International Political Economy.” Authors in this section cover trade, finance, FDI, regionalism, the environment, and economic-­security linkages. Japan’s trade policy has been at the center of a significant body of IPE scholarship. Christina L. Davis gives us her perspectives on “Japanese Trade Policy,” explaining how economic interests and domestic political institutions have supported the resilience of free trade policies in Japan. She asserts that the mercantilist ideas and the reactive state model of past years have been replaced by strong support of free trade and Kantei diplomacy to lead in setting rules for the trade regime complex. Once dependent on the United States and mired in bilateral trade friction, Japan has emerged as an active supporter of engagement with China and pursuit of free trade agreements alongside continued commitment to the multilateral rules. In Davis’s view, Japanese-­ style trade adjustment and the slow path to liberalization served to balance economic efficiency with political stability, as the government has supported narrow interests along with long-­term trade strategies for economic growth. In “Finance and Japan,” Saori N. Katada and Yoichi Nemoto draw attention more broadly to how ideas change and how institutions and policy networks filter new ideas. They examine the rise of the Japanese government’s financial initiatives in East Asia and their global impact, with an interactive emphasis on the importance of policy ideas in shaping outcomes. Japan’s approach to regional and global financial governance shifted due to the economic transformation of the region and to the rethinking, especially among the policymakers in the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan, on how Japan should relate to the region on financial matters. The Asian Financial Crisis played a very important role in shifting the foundation of policy debates. The transformation of Japanese government’s policymaking structure has also contributed to the shifting Japan’s policy priorities. Mark Manger turns to FDI. In “Foreign Direct Investment in Japan: Growth, Trends, and Policy Efforts,” he discusses how, for decades, Japanese outward foreign direct investment has exceeded the flow of foreign capital into the country. Policies and regulations restricted inward investment, while the foreign earnings of Japanese companies were recycled into investment abroad. Today, official policy has reversed to try to encourage greater inflows, but Japan does not attract much FDI. Following an overview of the trends of Japanese FDI, he surveys the considerable official efforts to protect the

14   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen interests of Japanese multinational firms abroad, particularly in the form of investment chapters in trade agreements and freestanding international investment agreements. He then analyzes recent attempts at reducing barriers to inward investment in Japan under Abenomics, and suggests that these efforts do not appear to spur significant inflows. Given the patterns to date, the conundrum of the Japanese government may be that the policy regime cannot by itself counter the diminishing economic attractiveness of Japan for foreign firms. Kim Reimann draws attention to another timely topic of interest to IPE specialists in “Japan and the Environment.” She examines the evolution of environmental politics in Japan over the postwar period, identifying the main factors and actors shaping environmental policy. She discusses how the literature on Japanese environmental politics has shifted its focus over time from domestic to global environmental issues, mirroring transformations in Japan’s political economy and international status. After successfully confronting the domestic problem of severe pollution in the 1970s and early 1980s, Japan became one of the world’s largest donors of environmental foreign aid, starting in the early 1990s and continuing today. Her work suggests that throughout all periods, there have been continuities as well as changes. She also clearly says that in terms of representation and democracy, the Japanese state has consistently prioritized concerns of business and local governments in the policymaking process. This means that in addition to having greater voice, these constituencies have benefited materially from policies through their access to various green funds. In contrast, NGOs and citizens have tended to be left out of policy discussions and have exercised voice largely through protest and critiques of government policies. She ends by examining the case of climate change to explore these patterns in more recent years. Hidetaka Yoshimatsu turns to “Japan and Economic Regionalism in Asia,” a topic that has drawn a great deal of scholarly IPE attention. He specifically examines Japan’s commitments to economic regionalism, focusing on two critical questions: how Japan has committed to the development of regional institutions for managing economic affairs, and why Japan has made commitments to economic regionalism in Asia. He discusses how Japan has maintained an important status in developing regional institutions by committing to APEC, functional institutions under the ASEAN+3, and regional institutions for infrastructure investment. In such commitments, great power transitions in the form of the rise of China and the waning of the United States constitute crucial factors that drove Japan toward positive regional engagements. In his view, the Abe administration implemented measures for economic regionalism in response to heightened business interests as well as dampened opposition from societal and political circles under the Kantei-­centered policymaking system. Significantly, the Abe administration reformulated external economic policies by embedding them into a new diplomatic frame of proactive contribution to peace. Keisuke Iida brings the IPE section to a close, and paves the way for the next one, in “Linkages between Security and Economics in Japan.” The linkages between security and economics are complex and have been discussed in various fields and sets of literatures, thus defying simple classification and integration. Nevertheless, Iida presents a

Japanese Politics: An Introduction   15 taxonomy that divides various topics into two sets of policies: those pertaining to military power and those related to bargaining power. For example, defense spending and burden sharing in alliance, which are standard topics in the economics of defense, are categorized under the first set of policies. Export controls, which are usually discussed in entirely different contexts, are also categorized under this set. However, economic sanctions, which are well known in the study of international relations, are categorized under the second set of policies. He argues that security crises and dual-­use technologies tie both sets of policies together. By seeking greater autonomy, Japan is engaging in a severe trade-­off between strengthening its military forces and bargaining power and other foreign and economic policy objectives.

International Security The third section in “International Relations” is the traditional counterpart to IPE, “International Security.” Here authors examine a wide range of security questions and domains: remilitarization, multilateralism, nuclear nonproliferation, naval power, space security, and cybersecurity. In “Remilitarization in Japan,” Christopher W. Hughes revaluates the utility of militarization as a framework for comprehending Japan’s changing military stance, posing a challenge for many current analyses that portray Japan’s security trajectory as one of essential continuity. The concept of militarization assists in identifying those military components in all societies, including Japan—institutional and ideological in nature— that are subject to contestation and alteration and open the way to substantive change in military security policy. Hughes begins by outlining Japan’s self-­declared and self-­ imposed constraints on its military posture in the immediate postwar and Cold War periods to establish the baselines against which any shifts toward remilitarization can be evaluated. He then systematically assesses these baselines and the degree of subsequent shift in the post–Cold War and contemporary periods—in terms of legal and constitutional constraints on military power, procurement of new military capabilities, increases in defense budgets, civil-­military relations, the export of military technologies, and external and alliance military commitments. He concludes by assessing the overall trajectory of Japan’s military posture, and arguing that there has been substantial change rather than continuity. With these findings, he also considers the interrelationship with and challenges for the quality of Japanese democracy. Paul Midford analyzes Japan’s experience with, and motivations for participating in, security multilateralism. In “Global and Regional Security Multilateralism in Japan’s Foreign Policy,” he scrutinizes Japan’s pivot in 1991 toward embracing regional security multilateralism. This is in contrast to the lack of multilateral interaction in the historical legacies of international relations in East Asia, which were governed by the Sino-­centric tributary system, the security multilateralism of the Washington system of the 1920s, Japan’s failed multilateral Greater East Asian co-­prosperity sphere during the Pacific War, and Japan’s security isolationism during the Cold War. He argues that Japan’s

16   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen ­ romotion of security multilateralism since 1991 is part of a broader shift away from p ­security isolationism and toward global and regional security engagement on bilateral and ­multilateral levels. Japan’s 1992 decision to begin participating in UN peacekeeping and its promotion of the ASEAN Regional Forum’s creation through the 1991 Nakayama proposal are examples of Japan’s post–Cold War security multilateralism. He asserts that Japan’s embrace of security multilateralism after the Cold War, like its embrace of security isolationism during the Cold War, has been driven by its reassurance strategy of convincing other East Asian nations that Japan can be trusted as a military power that will not repeat its pre-­1945 expansionism. Another motivation for Japan’s promotion of security multilateralism is moderating its alliance security dilemma vis-­à-­vis the United States. Since 2000, Japan has promoted the creation of other regional security multilateral forums, including the counter-­ piracy ReCAAP organization, the East Asian Summit, the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus Dialogue Partners, and the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum. Mike Mochizuki turns to the important nuclear issue in Japanese politics. In “Japan and Nuclear Nonproliferation,” he analyzes the evolution of Japanese policies toward nuclear weapons, nuclear nonproliferation, and nuclear disarmament. He traces the development of Japan’s Three Non-­Nuclear Principles and examines how these principles relate to Japan’s security alliance with the United States. By examining the interaction of domestic politics and changes in the international environment, he shows how Japan has reaffirmed its status as a non-­nuclear weapons state. Japan’s promotion of nuclear power to meet its energy needs has rested on an explicit policy to forgo nuclear weapons and a commitment to the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. At the same time, Japan’s reliance on the US extended nuclear deterrence and its concerns about regional security threats have tempered its support for nuclear disarmament initiatives. For the first time in the Japanese context, Alessio Patalano develops a framework to comprehend the role of naval power as a tool of statecraft and why it matters to Japan’s foreign and security policy. In “Japanese Naval Power” he employs a strategic studies methodology to overcome the explanatory limits of mainstream perspectives narrowly focused on debating the nature of Japanese military power from normative perspectives. This allows him to make three distinctive contributions. First, he argues that Japan’s military posture is not the result of a constrained legal framework. As a liberal democracy with an export-­oriented economy, the shape of Japanese military power is consistent with the model of a “seapower state.” Second, he asserts that the most significant changes in Japanese naval power do not concern the expansion of capabilities or renewed commitment to the US-­Japan alliance. Rather they are concerned with empowering Japanese foreign policy with the option to actively “shape” international stability. Third, he explores how Prime Minister Abe’s impact on the use of naval power has not negated constitutional constraints, as he focused on naval power’s shaping potential to underpin and reinforce his signature Free and Open Indo-­Pacific initiative. In another first for the Japanese context, Saadia M. Pekkanen deploys neoclassical realism to frame our understanding of Japan’s space security. In “Neoclassical Realism

Japanese Politics: An Introduction   17 in Japan’s Space Security,” she draws attention to the changing nature of the country’s space security as it shifts toward internationalism in a world returned to great power competition. She discusses the ways in which Japan has adjusted both its internal portfolio and its external postures to balance against perceived threats in outer space. While neoclassical realism is foundational for understanding what motivates, empowers, and constrains states in the space domain, she also layers in the importance of international law to the conduct of statecraft within it. She argues that doing so gives us a more holistic grip on the material, legal, and normative evolution of Japan’s winding space trajectories. Although Japan’s Basic Space Law of 2008 is seen as a watershed event for legal and policy purposes, the law merely caught up with the extraordinary quality and range of Japan’s long-­evolving dual-­use space technologies. She lays out how these autonomous foundations empower Japan to pursue three distinct strategies in its interest—counterspace capabilities, organizational changes, and space diplomacy—with implications for both rivals and allies in a changed world order. Benjamin Bartlett turns to another new and important domain for Japan. In “Cybersecurity in Japan,” he endeavors more broadly to explain how bureaucratic politics and trends in Japanese politics have shaped Japanese cybersecurity policy over time. He points to two recent trends that have been visible in Japanese politics: the increasing importance of politicians versus bureaucrats in policymaking, and the increasing willingness of the Japanese government to expand its authority and capability in dealing with national security. But he argues that while these trends have affected Japanese cybersecurity policy as well, their effects have been limited. Much of the drafting of cybersecurity policy is done within a cabinet body primarily staffed with bureaucrats seconded from three ministries and one agency: METI, MIC, MOD, and NPA. Further, while the capabilities of the JSDF and the conditions under which it can operate have been expanded, as of yet there has been little sign that potential trade-­offs between priorities are being resolved in favor of national security.

Foreign Relations In this final section of “International Relations,” authors engage with some of the most important bilateral relations of Japan. This section is “Foreign Affairs.” Here the chapters explore Japan’s relations with the United States, China, South Korea, ASEAN, India, the EU, and Russia. As Ellis  S.  Krauss points out, the US-­Japan relationship has survived for three-­ quarters of a century, despite economic and security crises, as well as consistent pressure from the US to contribute more to the alliance and open its domestic markets. In “Japan-US Relations: The Most Important Bilateral Relationship in the World,” he analyzes these developments since the US Occupation imposed its postwar “pacifist constitution” on Japan, whose pacifism was ignored almost from the start but which left an indelible imprint on both public opinion and affected what the perennial conservative governments could accomplish in security relations and the alliance. Krauss shows how

18   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen economic and security relations have been related, how major international changes and domestic politics have been intertwined, and how the three main approaches to international relations have characterized the relationship. Finally, he discusses the relationships’ successful management and some implications for Japan’s democracy. In “Japan-­China Relations: Politics of Great Powers and Great Power Politics,” Ming Wan draws attention to another critical foreign relation for Japan. He asserts that Japan’s current China policy is a crucial part of an evolving political process of reasserting its autonomy under fast-­changing circumstances at home and abroad. Security-­centric studies have become prominent in the past decade in light of China’s dramatic rise, a sharp departure from mainstream analysis in the 1990s, which focused on diplomacy, economics, culture, and history. While structural features such as balance of power and political regime gaps are important, he argues that foreign policy management better explains the twists and turns in Japan-­China relations. Some major events can also transform the structure of the bilateral relationship. He asserts that the bilateral relationship has been on a steady upswing since mid-­2017, even though none of the bilateral disputes have been resolved. Leadership in both countries have a mutual interest in avoiding a worsening bilateral relationship that might damage their policy agendas. China and Japan also needed each other to hedge against an unpredictable Trump administration. Alexandra Sakaki turns our attention to another regional relationship in “The Japan-­ South Korea Rift: ‘Inside’ and ‘Outside’ Pressures on Relations.” She asserts that although Japan-­South Korea relations have been volatile throughout the postwar era, ties deteriorated to an unprecedented degree after 2011, with mutual mistrust hitting unseen heights. Focusing on this time period, she analyzes the causes of the downturn. Previous studies show that underlying bilateral tensions stem from clashes in the two countries’ national identity conceptions and historical disagreements more generally. She argues that ties have come under additional pressure from two spheres. First, pressure has built from the “inside”—the domestic-­societal contexts—pushing the respective political leaders, who are mindful of public support and electoral effects, toward more nationalist positions vis-­à-­vis the other country. Second, pressure has built from the “outside”— from changes in the international arena. Tokyo and Seoul hold differing views on how to respond to key international challenges. At the same time, Japan’s relative importance to Korea has fallen amid shifting economic ties in the region. Takashi Terada aims to provide a fresh interpretation of Japan’s patterned approach to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over the past forty years, examining it in the context of Japan’s interest in leading wider concepts of regional institutions in Asia and the Pacific. In “The Evolution of Japan-­ASEAN Relations: Core Moves for Japan’s Initiatives in Asian Regionalism beyond Southeast Asia,” he analyzes Japan’s ­policy direction and diplomatic efforts to maintain good relations with ASEAN as a key precondition for its commitment to establishing six different regional initiatives or institutions beyond Southeast Asia. This comports with the view that Japan has promoted its ASEAN policy in parallel with its commitment to wider regional institutions. Based on the analytics of neoclassical realism, he assesses Japanese policy responses to

Japanese Politics: An Introduction   19 the international/regional structural changes, especially through the lens of Japanese prime ministers’ perceptions, ideas, and roles to identify Japan’s distinctive moves toward ASEAN and wider regional institution: the end of the Vietnam War for ASEAN, the Plaza Accord and regional economic interdependence for APEC, the AFC for APT, China’s charm offensive diplomacy for EAS, China’s hegemonic rise for TPP, and Japan-­ China competition over economic rules for FOIP. He believes Japan has acknowledged the solidarity and integration of ASEAN as a prerequisite for the effective development of these wider regional institutions, making it critical for Japan to ease ASEAN’s concern about its possible marginalization within Asia’s politics and economics. In “Japan-­India Relations: From Weak Links to Stronger Ties,” Purnendra Jain focuses on a relationship that is important for Japan’s strategy for a Free and Open Indo-­ Pacific today. He broadly examines the rather uneven development of Japan-­India postwar relations, analyzing factors behind distinctive periods: almost a half-­century of low-­intensity and at times mutual neglect and rocky engagement that followed the smooth take-­off in relations at the end of World War II, but with re-­ignition over the past two decades. He endeavors to explain Japan’s transformation from neglecting India during the Cold War period to recognizing India as one of its key strategic partners today. He considers the various push and pull factors, including changes in the two nations’ domestic and external circumstances. He argues that a realist perspective most usefully explains Japan’s response to the power structure in place during the Cold War that set the two nations apart, and to the subsequent transition in power relations regionally and globally that has brought about a convergence of the nations’ strategic interests. Both nations today uphold a belief in the value of economic interdependence, international institutions, and democratic processes, yet their primary engagement with each other has remained strategic in the Indo-­Pacific era. National leaders have been instrumental in steering these responses, as is especially evident in the diplomatic postures of former prime minister Shinzō Abe and his Indian counterpart and current prime minister Narendra Modi. Marie Söderberg examines “Japan-­EU Relations,” giving us a historical overview from WWII to the present. For her the critical question is whether ongoing shifts in the power balance, geopolitics, crises of liberalism, domestic politics, and legal and technological changes will lead to broader and deeper cooperation between Japan and the EU. She points out that the relationship started with a heavy emphasis on trade and business. It is only recently that the two have broadened their cooperation and now stand up as two of the strongest defenders of a liberal rule-­based world order. Japan and the EU have recently made several agreements aiming to deepen their cooperation and revive multilateral cooperation in the face of US withdrawal from international agreements and the rise of a more assertive China. One example is the partnership related to infrastructure, in which they stress the importance, among other things, of a free, open, and rules-­based approach to managing and shaping outcomes. This represents the evolution of the two players’ Strategic Partnership Agreement, which provides a legally binding framework for further cooperation in the field of politics, security, and development. Underpinning it are shared values and principles of democracy, the rule of law, human

20   Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen rights, and fundamental freedoms. For the protection of democracy and the liberal world order, Söderberg believes Japan and the EU seem like ideal partners. In “Japan-­Russia Relations,” Alexander Bukh focuses primarily on the territorial ­dispute over the “Northern Territories.” He provides a brief overview of the history of the territorial dispute and related negotiations between Japan and the USSR/Russia. He then delves into the dynamics in Japanese public opinion related to the dispute, the ­factors that shaped it, and its relationship with state policy. He specifically assesses the relationship between public preferences and policymaking in Japan’s relations with the USSR and Russia, setting matters in a historical and contemporary context. The thrust of his argument is that public preferences or public opinion played a rather limited role in shaping Japan’s Northern Territories–related policy. He discusses how this can be attributed to a number of factors, including the relatively small size of the issue for the public, voting behavior, the centrality of bureaucracy in policymaking, and the minimal impact of the territorial dispute on other areas of bilateral relations. It is clear that the future of research on Japanese politics is rich and promising. The chapters contained in this volume represent the state-­of-­the-­field, but that field will be constantly evolving. The coronavirus pandemic, which struck in the middle of our work on this volume, will transform domestic politics and international relations alike. How it will do so is unpredictable to us at this stage, but the impact is likely to be substantial. We look forward to seeing how scholars and researchers help us to interpret and understand the changed world of the future.

References Haddad, Mary Alice. 2012. Building Democracy in Japan. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press. Ishida, Takeshi, and Ellis S. Krauss, eds. 1989. Democracy in Japan. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. Kitaoka, Shinichi. 2020. From Party Politics to Militarism in Japan, 1924–1941. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner. Pekkanen, Robert J., Steven R. Reed, and Ethan Scheiner, eds. 2013. Japan Decides 2012: The Japanese General Election. London and New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Pekkanen, Robert J., Steven R. Reed, and Ethan Scheiner, eds. 2015. Japan Decides 2014: The Japanese General Election. London and New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Pekkanen, Robert J., Steven R. Reed, Ethan Scheiner, and Daniel M. Smith, eds. 2018. Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese General Election. London and New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Richardson, Bradley. 1997. Japanese Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Takenaka, Harukata. 2014. Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan: Breakdown of a Hybrid Regime. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.

Pa rt I

D OM E S T IC P OL I T IC A L AC TOR S A N D I NST I T U T IONS

chapter 2

The Ja pa n ese Constitu tion Kenneth Mori M c Elwain

Constitutional democracy is founded on the principles of popular sovereignty, the fundamental rights of individuals, and limited government. It seeks to balance the will of the majority, as captured through democratic elections, with the protection of minorities, whose rights are guaranteed in written constitutions that cannot be easily revised. That said, constitutions are not fixed in stone after their ratification. Most undergo periodic amendments that change their content quite substantively (Abramson and Barber 2019), including high-amendment cases such as India (more than 100) and Germany (more than 60). Empirical research shows that periodic amendments actually improve the longevity of constitutions by ensuring that their text stays in line with the changing norms and priorities of living generations (Elkins, Ginsburg, and Melton 2009; Lutz 2006). In that sense, the Constitution of Japan (COJ hereafter) is an outlier. It is the oldest unamended constitution in the world today, remaining word-for-word the same document since its establishment in 1947 during the post-WWII Allied Occupation. The COJ’s resilience is additionally puzzling because of its provenance: constitutions established during foreign occupations are often replaced after sovereignty is regained (Elkins, Ginsburg, and Melton  2008). Occupation constitutions tend to privilege the goals of the occupiers over those of the occupied, and their lack of domestic legitimacy weakens deference to and enforcement of their provisions. How has the COJ survived for over seventy years without any amendments, and what does its longevity tell us about the nature of Japanese constitutional democracy? This chapter provides three interlinked answers to this question. First, I use cross-national data from the Comparative Constitutions Project (Elkins et al. 2009) to compare the COJ’s contents to other national constitutions. I argue that the COJ’s lack of amendments is related to its brevity, particularly its sparse details concerning political institutions. Fairly substantial reforms to electoral rules and local governance can be accomplished through regular legislation, diminishing the structural necessity of formal constitutional revisions.

24   Kenneth Mori McElwain Second, I look at elite initiatives to amend the constitution. Conservative politicians, media, and scholars have long argued for the need to revise the controversial Article 9 “peace clause,” formalize the political status of the emperor, and rebalance the primacy of individual freedoms over civic duties. In 2005 and 2012, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) published comprehensive constitutional reform drafts that proposed changes to virtually every article of the COJ. However, there remain significant disagreements among elites on the salience of constitutional revision. For one, most LDP politicians prioritize bread-and-butter economic and social welfare policies over constitutional issues (McElwain 2020). For another, the LDP’s constitutional priorities are unpopular with the Kōmeitō, its junior coalition partner, and even more so with the progressive opposition parties. In other words, amendments pose challenges to both intra- and interparty coordination. Third, I examine public sentiment. Despite strong enthusiasm for amendment in the 1990s, public opinion since 2012 has been evenly divided between pro- and anti-revision camps. Since constitutional amendments require a national referendum, proponents must convince at least a majority of citizens that there are deficiencies in the COJ. One hurdle, however, is that the perceived necessity of amendment is low, because many revisions that the LDP has advocated, such as amending Article 9 to permit collective selfdefense, have already been accomplished through legislation. Second, to the extent that the public supports revision, it is to add progressive rights to privacy, government transparency, and a clean environment—none of which are conservative priorities. In summary, the survival of the COJ speaks to its broad acceptance by the public, despite its controversial origins. It has withstood attempts to amend it, because incremental course corrections can be made through the regular legislative process. More fundamental changes have been stymied by the LDP’s failure to convince legislators and voters that the COJ has inherent defects that imperil national welfare. This is not to say that the COJ has been entirely static: (re)interpretations of its contents by the government and courts have changed how the COJ’s provisions are applied and enforced. While this chapter does not address such “informal” changes to the constitution fully, it will touch on debates about the meaning of constitutional principles, and how that influences the politicization of formal constitutional amendments.

The Origins and Structural Features of the Constitution of Japan The Japanese state has had two written constitutions in its modern history. The first, the Constitution of the Empire of Japan (the Meiji Constitution) was established in 1889 during the reign of the Meiji emperor. Its drafters drew principally on Prussia’s model of constitutional oligarchy, with the emperor as the sovereign monarch. It established political institutions such as a parliamentary cabinet, elected lower house of the

The Japanese Constitution   25 l­egislature, and judiciary, although significant discretionary authority was retained by the Privy Council, an advisory body to the emperor. Civil rights and liberties were promised, albeit subject to constraints based on adherence to public welfare and the interests of the state. The second is the Constitution of Japan (COJ), ratified during the Allied Occupation of Japan. Much of its text was drafted in one week by Occupation officers, operating under the directives of the Supreme Commander of Allied Powers (SCAP), General Douglas MacArthur, to transform Japan into a stable, demilitarized democracy. While MacArthur originally entrusted the drafting of a new constitution to the Japanese government, he became frustrated by the government’s slow progress and reticence toward fundamental reforms, particularly of the imperial system. On February 13, 1946, SCAP rejected the Japanese government’s “Matsumoto Commission” proposal, and instead presented its own document. After deliberations and amendments in the Diet, a revised draft was approved by both houses of the Diet and then officially approved by the emperor, thus following the formal procedure for amending the Meiji Constitution (Moore and Robinson 2002). In essence, however, the COJ is an entirely new constitution, defined by popular sovereignty with a symbolic emperor (Article 1), pacifism (Article 9), and respect for fundamental human rights (Article 11).1 These are taught to Japanese school children as the “three principles of the Constitution of Japan,” so called because of their departure from the central features of the Meiji Constitution. Most distinctive is Article 9, which proscribes Japan from threatening war or possessing “war potential.” According to data from the Comparative Constitutions Project (Elkins et al. 2009), Japan is one of only ten countries today whose constitution does not describe the structure or functions of a military.2 Much of the postwar discourse on the (de)merits of the COJ has centered on disputes over what Article 9 means, what it constrains in practice, and how and whether it should be altered to better fit Japan’s foreign and security policy needs. At the domestic level, the establishment of fundamental human rights expanded the nature and range of civil liberties beyond what had been promised in the Meiji Constitution. Many of the American officers charged with drafting the COJ were New Deal Democrats with a progressive commitment to the primacy of individual and social rights. While Japanese negotiators believed that civil rights and liberties should be achieved through Diet statute or in the civil code, as was largely case the case in the Meiji Constitution, SCAP pushed for these to be formally enshrined in the new COJ itself. Article 11 of the COJ elevates the status of human rights as a matter of principle: The people shall not be prevented from enjoying any of the fundamental human rights. These fundamental human rights guaranteed to the people by this Constitution shall be conferred upon the people of this and future generations as eternal and inviolate rights.

The COJ also differs from the Meiji Constitution in the sheer range of protected rights. Globally, constitutions established after universal suffrage are more likely to reflect the

26   Kenneth Mori McElwain preferences of the poor, women, and underprivileged minorities (Elkins et al. 2009). This results in the inclusion of more social rights, such as to healthcare or public education, and economic rights, such as the right to join trade unions and bargain collectively. As McElwain and Winkler (2015) write, the COJ enumerates more individual and socioeconomic rights than most other constitutions of its period, reflecting the progressive priorities of the Occupation drafters. Table 2.1 lists ten basic human rights, ranging from individual or negative liberties (freedom from the government) to socioeconomic, positive rights (obligations of the  government). The columns list whether these are enumerated in the Meiji Constitution and the Constitution of Japan, as well as the percentage of constitutions in 1947 and 2010 that include these rights. Those that appear in more than 50 percent of constitutions are italicized. It is clear that the COJ not only guarantees more rights than the Meiji Constitution, but also includes more than was typical for constitutions in 1947. In addition to negative liberties, such as the freedoms of expression, assembly, and thought, it also includes positive socioeconomic rights to a minimum ­standard of living and public healthcare that are absent in most constitutions, even in 2010. As with rights, newer constitutions also specify political institutions in greater detail. The expansion of government powers in the twentieth century engendered concerns about leaving institutional checks and balances to customary practice (Banting and Simeon  1985, Versteeg and Zackin  2016). However, institutional details also tend to reflect country-specific histories (Abramson and Barber 2019). Because the Meiji government was originally designed as a monarchic oligopoly, its constitution enumerated few details about political institutions. Following this pattern, the COJ’s treatment of political institutions is also quite sparse, leaving most provisions about the architecture of government to be determined by law. The Occupation’s drafters, working on an abbreviated schedule, believed that upending the political system would sow confusion and derail a swift, orderly transition to democracy (Hellegers 2001). Table 2.2 lists all provisions whose details the COJ leaves explicitly to legislation by including qualifiers such as “provided for,” “fixed,” and “determined by law.” The left column identifies the articles related to human rights; the right column lists political institutions. It is clear that the lack of constitutional specificity is more pronounced for the latter than the former. While the COJ often specifies a general principle, such as the need for democratic elections and universal suffrage, substantive rules are delegated to parliament. For example, Article 47 simply states, “Electoral districts, method of voting and other matters pertaining to the method of election of members of both Houses shall be fixed by law.” As a result, government majorities were able to switch the lower house electoral system to a mixedmember majoritarian rule in 1994 and change the formula for upper house elections in 1983 and 2001. Similarly, Article 92 states, “Regulations concerning organization and operations of local public entities shall be fixed by law in ­accordance with the principle of local autonomy.” The word “prefecture”—the fundamental unit of subnational government—does not appear in the COJ at all. In an

The Japanese Constitution   27 Table 2.1  Constitutional Guarantees of Human Rights Rights

Meiji C

COJ

1947 av.

2010 av.

Freedom of expression

O

O

82%

97%

Freedom of assembly

O

O

70%

86%

Freedom of thought

X

O

56%

82%

Separate church-state

X

O

31%

29%

Gender equality

X

O

13%

74%

Occupational choice

X

O

21%

55%

Join unions

X

O

36%

76%

Minimum standard of living

X

O

21%

20%

Public education

X

O

56%

66%

Public healthcare

X

O

26%

45%

Note: The average specification of rights in 1947 and 2010 is calculated by the author from data p­ rovided by the Comparative Constitutions Project (Elkins, Ginsburg, and Melton 2009).

Table 2.2  COJ Provisions Left to Legislation Human Rights/Article

Political Institutions/Article

Citizenship

10

Emperor’s functions

4, 7

Government redress

17

Size of parliament

43

Compulsory education

26

Qualifications of legislators

44

Working conditions

27

Electoral system

47

Property rights

29

Remuneration of legislators

49

Taxation

30

Immunity of legislators

50

Criminal procedure

31

Passage of legislation, budget

59, 60

Criminal redress

40

Impeachment of judges

64

Composition, function of cabinet

66, 73

Selection of prime minister

67

Establishment of lower courts

76

Qualification of judges

79, 80

Changing taxes

84

Composition of the Board of Audit

90

Organization, powers of local gov’t

92, 93, 94

Local referenda

95

28   Kenneth Mori McElwain extreme scenario, a parliamentary majority could replace the current system of 47 subnational prefectures with 10 states or 100 counties. This brevity on institutional matters makes the COJ one of the shortest constitutions in the world. Its English translation is 4,998 words, compared to the current global median of 13,630 words (McElwain and Winkler 2015). The preceding Meiji Constitution was also quite short at 3,381 words. While length is not equivalent to quality, the disjuncture between the specificity of rights and vagueness of institutions has shaped the evolution of the COJ. Empirically, the frequency of constitutional amendments is correlated with the level of institutional detail, as most revisions deal with institutional reforms, such as to the term length of the legislature, term limits of the executive, and powers of central versus local governments (McElwain and Clipperton 2014). In countries where these details are left to law, the same reforms can be achieved by regular legislation. Put simply, the institutional sparsity of the COJ has reduced the need for constitutional amendments. An alternative argument for the lack of constitutional change is that the amendment process is too onerous. Article 96 requires formal amendments to be approved by an absolute two-thirds of both chambers of the Diet, followed by a simple majority in a national referendum. In Diet deliberations on February 4, 2014, Prime Minister Shinzō Abe stated that the status quo, which allows one-third of legislators to block amendment initiatives, unfairly restricted the opportunity of citizens to participate in constitutional debates.3 The Liberal Democratic Party’s 2012 Draft Amendment to the Constitution of Japan proposed to lower the parliamentary hurdle to an absolute majority in both chambers, while preserving the national referendum.4 This was also included in the LDP’s manifesto for the 2013 upper house election. While this may seem like a reasonable claim, its empirical validity is questionable. Data from the Comparative Constitutions Project shows that, of constitutions that grant parliament the power to vote for amendments, 76 percent require a two-thirds ­supermajority, while only 6 percent allow for revisions by an absolute majority.5 While the frequency of amendments falls as the process becomes more complex, Germany’s Basic Law has been amended more than sixty times since its ratification in 1949, despite it requiring the same two-thirds approval in parliament. In fact, since the German parliament uses a relatively proportional electoral system, compared to Japan’s more majoritarian rule, it is arguably harder for one party to unilaterally push through amendments in the former.6 Thus far, this chapter’s focus has been on the linkage between constitutional structure and amendment necessity. However, the fact that many consequential changes to the COJ can be made without formal amendments does not mean that amendments are undesirable. It is not contradictory to believe that the COJ can be improved upon, even if there is no pressing need to do so. This line of argument shifts the logic from constitutional design to political preferences and strategy. In the next section, I turn to elite initiatives to amend the constitution, paying particular attention to LDP proposals since 2005.

The Japanese Constitution   29

Political Discourse and Amendment Initiatives Figure 2.1 lists the life span of all unamended constitutions in history, based on data of 860 constitutions from the Comparative Constitutions Project. The Constitution of Japan is not only the oldest unamended constitution in the world today; it also ranks second among all unamended constitutions in history, trailing only that of the Kingdom of Italy (1861–1946). Considering that the Meiji Constitution (1889–1946) was only changed once, when it was replaced wholly by the COJ during the Allied Occupation, one could argue that the modern Japanese state has never experienced a domestically driven constitutional reform in over 140 years. This longevity is striking. According to the CCP database, unamended constitutions have drastically short life spans, with the median number of years between ratification and replacement being only three years. By contrast, the median life span for those with at least one amendment is twenty-two years. As argued in the preceding section, one explanation for the lack of amendments is the brevity and structural flexibility of the COJ. Another is that postwar Japan has not faced the types of major crises that have propelled constitutional change in other countries. Elkins, Ginsburg, and Melton (2009) show that constitutional replacement is correlated with extraconstitutional regime changes such as coup d’états, which Japan has avoided. Rapid postwar economic growth and the American security umbrella also produced relative peace and social order, mitigating the perceived necessity of drastic constitutional reforms. Italy 1861 Japan 1946 Paraguay 1870 Brazil 1824 Denamrk 1953 Japan 1889 ElSalvador 1886 Nauru 1968 Denmark 1866 St. Vinc.&Gren. 1979 Nicaragua 1858 Switzerland 1815 Paraguay 1813 DominicanRep 1966 Venezuela 1830 Paraguay 1940 Haiti 1816 Argentina 1826 0

20

40 Lifespan (Years)

60

80

Figure 2.1.  Life span of unamended constitutions (historical). Source: Data from Comparative Constitutions Project.

30   Kenneth Mori McElwain However, postwar national success does not mean that the Japanese constitution is optimal, especially when projecting to the future. Drafted by Occupation officers and ratified while sovereignty was limited, detractors have decried the COJ for lacking democratic legitimacy and criticized its contents as Western-inspired and inorganic. Before analyzing recent elite sentiment towards constitutional reform, let me first unpack these criticisms concerning constitutional origins and content.

Visions of Constitutional Change The COJ was ratified under conditions of limited sovereignty. SCAP officers demanded substantial changes in the nature of the polity, even as censorship and ­general postwar chaos prevented full reportage of the constitution-drafting process. That said, most Japanese scholars reject the notion that the COJ is fundamentally ­illegitimate. Its ratification by a freely elected Diet satisfied minimal requirements for ­democratic constitutionalism. If anything, the COJ’s ratification could be seen as more democratic than that of the Meiji Constitution, which was imposed on the Japanese people by Meiji oligarchs without any public input (Ashibe  2015). At the same time, the final version of the COJ was the subject of substantial negotiation between SCAP and the Diet. Japanese negotiators were able to block two significant changes in the original SCAP draft: to put all land in Japan under the ownership of the state, and to replace the bicameral Diet with a unicameral parliament (Hellegers 2001; Moore and Robinson 2002). While some conservatives viewed the shift from a sovereign to a symbolic emperor as an assault on the Japanese polity, Article 1 was broadly seen as an acceptable compromise by the public, especially given the reality of wartime defeat (Sakaiya 2017). Nonetheless, conservatives have tied criticism of the constitution’s contents to its origins. Few mainstream elites since the 1960s have publicly sought a return to the prewar Meiji system, but many believe that Occupation-era reforms had gone too far in negating Japan’s national character and robbing Japan of a “normal” right to self-defense. Winkler (2011) analyzes twenty-seven constitutional reform proposals from 1980 to 2009, drafted by a mixture of conservative scholars, media organizations, and political figures. He points to two common demands: the insertion of more traditional values, and revisions to Article 9. On the former, many would-be reformers assert that the COJ’s focus on fundamental human rights has bred excessive egocentrism and materialism, disregard for social and familial responsibilities, and loss of national dignity (Winkler  2011, 50–60). This is also reflected in the preamble’s lack of references to Japanese history, culture, and traditions, such as the imperial lineage (134–135). As remedies, the Liberal Democratic Party’s 2012 constitutional draft designates the emperor as the head of state, albeit in a ceremonial role (in Article 1); enumerates the national flag and anthem (in Article 3); restricts the exercise of civil liberties when it conflicts with public welfare and civil order (in Article 21); and refers to the importance of the family as the “natural and fundamental unit of society” (in Article 24).

The Japanese Constitution   31 While debates over the constitution’s balance between individual rights and civic duties continue, the heart of national discourse has been Article 9. The provision itself reads: Article 9.1 Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes. Article 9.2 In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

Until 2014 the Cabinet Legislation Bureau, which acts as legal counsel to the government, interpreted Article 9 to mean that Japan can legally possess military capabilities as long as they are designed for senshu-bōei, or exclusively defense-oriented defense (Law Library of Congress 2015; Samuels 2007). To that extent, the government has limited the purchase of offensive or dual-use armaments and relied instead on the American nuclear umbrella for national defense. The Supreme Court, which has final say over the interpretation of the constitution, has never ruled explicitly on the constitutionality of the Self-Defense Forces or its mission capabilities. One oft-cited opinion is of the Sunagawa Case (1959.12.16), which decided that Japan did possess a natural right to selfdefense, including forging security alliances with foreign nations for that purpose. However, the same ruling stated that security treaties were non-justiciable “political questions,” and thus better resolved by the executive and legislative branches. Mainstream conservatives within the LDP have traditionally accepted this status quo out of political necessity: the party lacked the seats to amend Article 9 unilaterally. The massive civil protests that accompanied Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi’s renewal and revision of the US-Japan Security Treaty in 1960 signaled the risks of pursuing constitutional amendment in the absence of public support (Elkins, Ginsburg, and Melton 2008). Instead, the “Yoshida Doctrine”—so named after former prime minister Shigeru Yoshida—espoused a mercantile foreign policy and passive national security policy. Constitutional revision and remilitarization were kept off the agenda to mollify leftwing parties, but LDP governments maintained a strong alliance with the United States as a geopolitical counterweight (Samuels  2007). The status quo was also justified by norms of economic security: a cap on military expenditures, facilitated by the US-Japan Alliance, allowed for lower taxes and more business investment. The development of technology was seen as the best way to reduce Japan’s dependence on imported raw materials and food, while gaining market share for commercial products (Katzenstein 1996). This grudging tolerance did not shield Article 9 from criticism entirely. It has been accused of depriving Japan of a “normal” right to self-defense, granted under the United Nations Charter, and locking the nation into the US-Japan Security Treaty (Winkler 2011). In the 1980s, Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone pushed for Japan to take a leadership role in international affairs through greater military spending and the revision of Article 9 (Pyle 1996). His initiatives largely failed, but they did shift the nature

32   Kenneth Mori McElwain of political discourse, as subsequent LDP governments became more assertive in ­pushing for de facto changes in the capabilities of the Self-Defense Forces. For example, special legislation sanctioned the SDF’s deployment on overseas peacekeeping (noncombat) missions in the 1990s. From a constitutional perspective, a significant break occurred in July 2014, when the Abe cabinet reinterpreted Article 9 to permit collective self-defense. This broke precedent with earlier government pronouncements, which stated that Article 9 only allowed for individual self-defense. The ratification of two new laws in 2015, together called Heiwa Anzen Hōsei (Legislation for Peace and Security), formalized the rules that would guide collective self-defense. In practical terms, Liff (2017) argues that the conditions outlined in these laws are remarkably strict, making the use of force outside defense-ofJapan scenarios extremely difficult. From a legal perspective, however, experts have strongly criticized the reinterpretation of Article 9, noting in particular that this directly contradicts the government’s long-standing claims that collective self-defense would require formal amendments to Article 9 (Hasebe 2017). There are two schools of thought within the LDP on how to amend Article 9. One side believes that the long-term goal should be to strike or fundamentally revise Article 9.2, which constrains the state from possessing a full-fledged military. The LDP’s 2012 draft constitution proposes to establish a National Defense Army (Kokubōgun) with the prime minister as commander-in-chief. Its purpose would be defending the territory, resources, and people of Japan, and also participating in overseas missions to preserve international peace and security. The LDP version would also create a military court system to adjudicate crimes by soldiers, as Article 76 of the COJ does not currently permit the establishment of special courts. The other side espouses a more moderate path. Given the Abe Cabinet’s contention that collective self-defense is permissible under Article 9, the urgency of amending the peace clause has waned. It is also highly unpopular among supporters of the Kōmeitō, the LDP’s coalition partner and vital vote base in urban districts (Liff and Maeda 2019). As such, the LDP’s manifestos in the 2017 lower house election and 2018 upper house election called for a more minimalist approach, wherein the right to self-defense and the existence of the Self-Defense Forces would simply be acknowledged in the COJ. The purported purpose is to put to rest the contention, particularly among scholars of constitutional law, that collective self-defense—and possibly the SDF itself—is ­ unconstitutional.7

Constitutional Amendment Initiatives after 2012 A number of conservative political parties published comprehensive amendment drafts in 2012, which marked the sixtieth anniversary of the San Francisco Peace Treaty, the end of the Allied Occupation, and the recovery of Japanese sovereignty. After parties favoring constitutional revision—the LDP and Kōmeitō, along with Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) and Party for Japanese Kokoro (now defunct)—combined

The Japanese Constitution   33 to win the requisite two-thirds in the lower house (2014) and upper house (2016), the political moment seemed to have finally arrived. This seeming support for constitutional amendment belies a remarkable lack of agreement on how to amend the constitution. The LDP had published an earlier constitutional revision proposal in 2005, the fiftieth anniversary of the party’s founding and the sixtieth anniversary of the end of World War II, but its contents differ in illuminating ways from the more recent 2012 version. The 2005 draft, written when the LDP was in government, prioritized the rationalization of government operations, such as greater fiscal decentralization. By contrast, the 2012 draft, crafted when the LDP was out of power, was designed to spotlight the party’s conservative bona fides. It barely mentions the institutional reforms of the 2005 draft, and instead focuses on right-wing aspirations, such as establishing a Kokubōgun (National Defense Army) in Article 9, giving the ceremonial “head of state” title to the emperor, and requiring that the exercise of individual rights be balanced against collective public welfare.8 However, the party’s 2017 lower house election manifesto reversed course once again. It ignored most nationalist issues and focused on four points: recognizing the SDF in Article 9, establishing state of emergency procedures, expanding the right to free education beyond middle school, and rebalancing the apportionment of upper house seats. The latter two can be accomplished entirely through regular legislation, thus casting doubts about the urgency of these appeals. These shifts in constitutional focus reflect the LDP’s challenges in managing disagreements with other parties in the Diet (McElwain 2018). Its coalition partner Kōmeitō has expressed greater enthusiasm for adding new environmental rights than for changing Article 9. The Japan Innovation Party, an Osaka-based party, has urged greater decentralization to lessen the fiscal burden of metropolitan areas. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP)—the largest opposition party as of 2020—is firmly against Article 9 revision, but it has been open to constraining the parliamentary dissolution powers of the cabinet and mandating government transparency. Intra- and interparty divisions on constitutional reform can be assessed more granularly using data from the UTokyo-Asahi Survey (UTAS). These surveys, ­conducted by Masaki Taniguchi of the University of Tokyo and the Asahi Shimbun newspaper, query both election candidates (pre-election) and voters (post-election) on a common set of policy questions.9 Here, I focus on the candidate surveys in the lower house and restrict the analysis to those candidates who won, and thus have a direct vote in the Diet. First, in every UTAS survey since the 2003 lower house election, more than 90 percent of LDP winners have supported constitutional amendment.10 Coupled with proamendment legislators from other conservative and centrist parties, supporters have constituted more than two-thirds of the lower house in every year but 2009, when the LDP lost to the center-left Democratic Party of Japan. However, there is no consensus on which aspects of the constitution to change. In the 2017 election, for example, more than 60 percent of LDP winners supported changes to Article 9 and adding national emergency procedures.11 However, these were not supported by a majority of legislators from

34   Kenneth Mori McElwain any other party. In fact, there was no topic on which a majority of all election winners prioritized amendment, much less the necessary two-thirds (McElwain 2018). A different way of looking at disagreements in the Diet is to compare the prioritization of constitutional amendment relative to other policy matters. UTAS asks respondents to pick their top three policy priorities from a list of 15–16 items. Figure 2.2 shows the ratio of election winners who picked constitutional reform (either for or against), foreign and security policy, industrial policy/economic reform, and pensions and healthcare among their top three.12 The responses reflect electoral context. The 2009 election, which saw a non-LDP party win a majority for the first time, came on the heels of the Global Financial Crisis (Lehman Shock, in Japanese parlance). While LDP candidates saw this as an impetus for structural economic reforms, left-wing parties emphasized the need to shore up social insurance protections. The 2012 contest, which saw the LDP return to power, focused broadly on the aftermath of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, but the LDP’s manifesto emphasized the need to restore better relations with the United States, which it argued had decayed during the DPJ administration. The LDP sold the 2014 contest as the first assessment of the “Abenomics” economic reform package, although its candidates did not emphasize any one of the four topics as the primary issue. In 2017 the LDP emphasized the threat of DPRK missiles and the importance of maintaining strong ties with the United States. By contrast, non-LDP parties, particularly on the left, have consistently spotlighted pensions and healthcare as the primary issues. There are two striking patterns related to constitutionalism in this data. First, while LDP candidates see foreign and security policy as major issues in most elections, these

Non-LDP 0.02 0.04

2009

0.01

0.06

0.17 0.20

2014

0.15 0.12 0.20 0.22 0.08

0

2009

0.44 0.43

2012

2017

LDP 0.10

0.05

2012

0.32 0.28

0.30 0.01

0.42 0.06

0.39

Constitution

.4

0.51

0.32 0.30 0.24

2014

2017 .6

.8

Foreign/Security

0.72

0.26 0.25

0.45

.2

0.82

0.19

0

.2

Industrial Policy

.4

.6

.8

Pensions/Healthcare

Figure 2.2.  Legislator’s policy priorities. Source: Data from UTAS candidate surveys.

The Japanese Constitution   35 attitudes do not necessarily link to the greater prioritization of constitutional revision. Catalinac (2016) argues that the salience of foreign policy has increased following electoral reform in 1994, but this does not seem to have increased enthusiasm for amending Article 9. Second, left-wing parties prioritize constitutional issues more than does the LDP, particularly since 2012. In 2017, only 6 percent of LDP legislators listed constitutionalism as one of their top three issues, compared to 22 percent for non-LDP politicians. The mobilization against constitutional revision is stronger than in support, making it difficult to marshal interparty agreement for any particular amendment proposal.

Does the Public Support Constitutional Revision? Even should the LDP successfully enforce party discipline and cajole other pro-revision parties to support a specific amendment proposal, voters will get the final say through an up-or-down national referendum. According to the Act on Procedures for Amendment of the Constitution of Japan, the referendum must be held within 60–180 days of the Diet’s decision, each amendment topic must be voted on separately, and there is no ­minimum turnout requirement. One of the challenges in forecasting the outcomes of an amendment vote is that Japan has never held a national referendum. Opinion polls can fill this gap, but media organizations did not conduct regular surveys on the matter until the 1990s, when the Yomiuri Shimbun began its annual poll.13 Figure 2.3 uses this data, dating back to 1991, to track net support rate for constitutional revision. Support rose steadily through the 1990s and 2000s, hitting a peak of +42 percent in 2004. One impetus was international criticism of Japan’s failure to dispatch the SDF during the 1990–1991 Gulf War, which galvanized popular concerns that Article 9 was preventing Japan from meeting its international obligations. The end of the Cold War, the North Korean nuclear crisis in 1993–1994, and China’s rising economic and military prompted many people to reassess Japan’s security posture (Samuels 2007). However, Sakaiya (2017) argues that concerns about Article 9 are insufficient to explain the rise in pro-amendment sentiment in the 1990s. Instead, he points to the ­perceived failures of political and economic systems. The collapse of the economic ­bubble, the revelation of bureaucratic bribery scandals, and the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of 1995 prompted a reevaluation of the Japanese state itself. The implementation of institutional reforms—electoral system change in 1994, bureaucratic restructuring in 2001, and fiscal decentralization in 2003—alleviated these concerns somewhat, even though none required constitutional amendments. When the focus of pro-amendment groups reverted back to security policy and Article 9 revision in the 2000s, public support also fell (Sakaiya 2017, 243–248).

36   Kenneth Mori McElwain Public Support for Constitutional Revision

Net For-Against Revision

40

20

0

–20 1990

1995

2000 2005 2010 2015 Annual Yomiuri surveys on constitutional revision

2020

Figure 2.3.  Public support for constitutional revision. Source: Data from annual Yomiuri surveys on constitutional revision.

The publication of the LDP’s constitutional revision drafts in 2005 and 2012 (the two dashed vertical lines in Figure 2.3) also lessened amendment enthusiasm, as the specifics of these proposals proved to be less popular than the party had wished. In fact, even as former prime minister Shinzō Abe repeatedly called for constitutional reform after he returned to power in 2012, public support fell to its lowest levels in thirty years. This is due in part to citizen’s concerns about the partisan nature of the LDP’s initiatives. McElwain, Winkler, and Eshima’s (2019) survey experiment finds that respondents who are told that revisions—particularly the addition of new rights to privacy and a clean environment—are being proposed by a neutral panel of experts, rather than the LDP, are more likely to support amendments. This difference in framing has the strongest effect on left-wing partisans and independents, many of whom support amendments in theory but mistrust the LDP’s intentions. A related challenge for the LDP is low voter enthusiasm. McElwain (2020) shows that interest in constitutional revision—whether for or against—is highest among voters who identify as strongly progressive or conservative. By contrast, centrist respondents, who make up the bulk of the electorate, care significantly more about social insurance issues. This likely contributes to the reticence of LDP politicians to prioritize amendment, as discussed in the preceding section (cf. Figure 2.2). For LDP candidates in urban areas, where many centrists reside and victory margins are thinner, the smart tactic is to focus on bread-and-butter socioeconomic policies, not constitutional amendment. This low voter interest is reflected in the instability of public sentiment. Sakaiya (2017, 260–261), using data from Japan Election Study (JES) III, finds that only 40 percent of pro-amendment and 27 percent of anti-amendment respondents maintained consistent

The Japanese Constitution   37 attitudes over the four panel waves between 2001 and 2005. In the absence of strong ideological convictions, individual preferences are shaped by domestic and international events, such as natural disasters and military threats from foreign nations. For example, Liff and McElwain (2020) run a survey experiment to test how threats to the international liberal order influence public policy preferences. Support for amending Article 9 rises when respondents are presented with scenarios designed to raise concerns about the US’s commitment to the Asia-Pacific in military and economic affairs. The overall picture that emerges is that public support for constitutional change is contingent on the content of the proposal, the identity of the proposer, and the domestic and international context. These may seem like obvious points, but they present a conundrum to the LDP as it considers when and how to propose constitutional amendments. The Japanese government has some control over context, but voters’ worries about security policy are also at the mercy of North Korea, China, and the United States. While the addition of new rights is more popular than amending Article 9, key LDP interest groups—the construction industry on environmental rights, telecom on privacy rights—may line up in opposition, complicating the party’s calculus. A separate option is to draw in opposition parties and give amendments a bipartisan sheen. However, there is no appetite for such concessions from left-wing parties. In fact, given strong enthusiasm for opposing revision among left-wing voters, it is in the electoral interests of progressive parties to refuse any concessions or compromises.

Constitutional Democracy in Japan This chapter’s arguments can be summarized in two points. First, the Constitution of Japan is notable for its detailed guarantee of rights and sparse specification of institutions. The latter gives the COJ elasticity and adaptability, as substantial changes to political rules can be made through regular legislation. Second, both political elites and the general public are divided on the exact content and urgency of constitutional change. This limits the ability of the LDP leadership to push amendments forward, particularly because its own supporters and centrists are less committed to reform than leftists are to opposing it. The greater question is whether the COJ has succeeded in defending Japanese constitutional democracy. The superficial answer is yes: 89 percent of respondents in the 2018 Yomiuri survey answered that the constitution had served a positive role since its ratification. Its lack of formal amendments speaks to broad social consensus on its three principles of popular sovereignty, pacifism, and defense of human rights. Importantly, the COJ has resisted attempts by the LDP to amend its contents without garnering support from other parties and moderate voters, accomplishing the core constitutional function of protecting electoral minorities from partisan majorities. When considering interpretive changes to the constitution’s contents, something this chapter has not covered in detail, the answer is murkier. Article 9, long understood to

38   Kenneth Mori McElwain permit only individual self-defense, has now been reinterpreted to permit collective selfdefense. This violates the decades-long precedent set by the Cabinet Legislation Bureau, and as Hasebe (2017, 129) writes, “If such a product of many minds of requisite art can be changed in accordance with policy preference of a transitory premier who happens to be in charge, the role of the Constitution to limit political power would almost evaporate.” To the extent that Article 9 is a core principle of the COJ, Albert (2018, 33) argues that this interpretive revision “is better understood as a constitutional dismemberment—simultaneously a deconstruction and reconstruction of an essential feature of the Japanese Constitution.” If the constitution is excessively vague or norms of compliance are unenforced, then its provisions can be stretched endlessly through reinterpretation. Constitutions cannot serve their core function of restraining government power if there is no common agreement on what the constitution actually permits or prohibits. However, Article 9 is not the only important aspect of the Constitution of Japan. Its enumeration of a wide variety of individual and social rights, which departed from the more qualified guarantee of rights in the Meiji Constitution, has undergirded Japanese democracy in the postwar period. In fact, survey data discussed in this chapter suggests that people’s primary preoccupations are with the further expansion of rights. The addition of privacy and environmental rights has broad public support across the ideological spectrum, and their salience should grow as threats to personal information expand and climate change worsens. For the COJ to continue to reflect the beliefs and preferences of Japanese citizens, these are the provisions that deserve most attention.

Notes 1. These pillars drew on two sources: the Potsdam Declaration, which defined the terms of Japan’s surrender in World War II, and the “MacArthur Notes,” which listed Douglas MacArthur’s priorities for constitutional revision. A more detailed discussion of the background of constitutional adoption, as well as the text of these two sources, can be found on the National Diet Library’s website: http://www.ndl.go.jp/constitution/e/outline/00outline.html. 2. This data is current as of 2013. The other constitutions that do not mention a military are of Andorra, Barbados, the Federated States of Micronesia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Nauru, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Samoa. 3. http://kokkai.ndl.go.jp/SENTAKU/syugiin/186/0018/18602040018004a.html. 4. An English summary of the proposed amendments in the 2012 draft can be found on the home page of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. “LDP Announces a New Draft Constitution for Japan,” https://www.jimin.jp/english/news/117099.html. 5. Approximately half of constitutions with a two-thirds parliamentary hurdle also make provisions for a national referendum, making the COJ’s amendment process quite typical. 6. While the German Basic Law does not provide for a national referendum, making amendments generally easier, this is not the element that Japanese reformers focus on, so I will not expand on this point here. 7. “Anpo Hoan, Gakusha Anketo” [Questionnaire on Japan’s Legislation for Peace and Security to Scholars of Constitutional Law], Asahi Shimbun, July 11, 2015.

The Japanese Constitution   39 8. For more discussion of the LDP’s 2005 vs. 2012 drafts, as well as initiatives by other political parties in 2012, see McElwain and Winkler (2015). 9. http://www.masaki.j.u-tokyo.ac.jp/utas/utasindex.html (website, codebook, and data are available only in Japanese). Candidate data is available for 2003–2017 and voter data is available for 2003–2017, although not all surveys include detailed questions about constitutional reform. 10. Responses were given on a five-point Likert scale. Those who support or weakly support constitutional amendment were counted as “supporters” for the purposes of this chapter. 11. Respondents were asked to list their top three amendment topics, if they were in favor of amendments generally. Here, I count the number of respondents who picked a given constitutional topic anywhere in the top three. Those who oppose constitutional amendment are included in the denominator. 12. The 2009 UTAS survey included pensions and healthcare as two separate items, while the 2012, 2014, and 2017 surveys included them as one item. For consistency, the 2009 data in Figure 2.3 adds responses for pensions and healthcare together. 13. The Yomiuri Shimbun is a center-right daily newspaper with the largest circulation in Japan. It has run the longest time-series survey on the constitution, which makes it a valuable source of public opinion. However, its estimates of support for amendment tends to be higher than that of the center-left Asahi Shimbun, largely due to differences in the phrasing of questions. While we should take the point estimates for support or opposition with a grain of salt, the trends over time are likely to reflect actual fluctuations in public sentiment.

References Abramson, Scott F., and Michael J. Barber. 2019. “The Evolution of National Constitutions.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 14, no. 1: 89–114. doi:10.1561/100.00018003. Albert, Richard. 2018. “Constitutional Amendment and Dismemberment.” Yale Journal of International Law 43, no. 1: 1–84. Ashibe, Nobuyoshi. 2015. Kenpō. 6th ed. Tokyo: Iwanami Shoten. Banting, Keith  G., and Richard Simeon, eds. 1985. Redesigning the State: The Politics of Constitutional Change in Industrial Nations. London: Macmillan. Catalinac, Amy. 2016. Electoral Reform and National Security in Japan: From Pork to Foreign Policy. New York: Cambridge University Press. Elkins, Zachary, Tom Ginsburg, and James Melton. 2008.“Baghdad, Tokyo, Kabul. . . . Constitution Making in Occupied States.” William & Mary Law Review 49, no. 4: 1139–1178. Elkins, Zachary, Tom Ginsburg, and James Melton. 2009. The Endurance of National Constitutions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Hasebe, Yasuo. 2017. “The End of Constitutional Pacifism?” Washington International Law Journal 26, no. 1: 125–136. Hellegers, Dale  M. 2001. We the People: World War II and the Origins of the Japanese Constitution. Vol. 2. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Katzenstein, Peter J. 1996. Cultural Norms and National Security: Police and Military in Postwar Japan. Edited by Peter  J.  Katzenstein. Cornell Studies in Political Economy. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

40   Kenneth Mori McElwain Law Library of Congress. 2015. Japan: Interpretations of Article 9 of the Constitution. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. Liberal Democratic Party. 2012. Nihonkoku Kenpō Kaisei Sōan. Liff, Adam P. 2017. “Policy by Other Means: Collective Self-Defense and the Politics of Japan’s Postwar Constitutional Reinterpretations.” Asia Policy 24: 139–172. Liff, Adam P., and Ko Maeda. 2019. “Electoral Incentives, Policy Compromise, and Coalition Durability: Japan’s LDP-Komeito Government in a Mixed Electoral System.” Japanese Journal of Political Science 20, no. 1: 53–73. doi:10.1017/S1468109918000415. Liff, Adam, and Kenneth Mori McElwain. 2020. “Japan and the Liberal International Order: A Survey Experiment.” In The Crisis of Liberal Internationalism: Japan and the World Order, edited by Yoichi Funabashi and John Ikenberry, 359–376. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press. Lutz, Donald. 2006. Principles of Constitutional Design. New York: Cambridge University Press. McElwain, Kenneth Mori. 2018. “Constitutional Revision in the 2017 Election.” In Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese General Election, edited by Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, Ethan Scheiner, and Daniel Smith, 297–312. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan. McElwain, Kenneth Mori. 2020. “When Candidates Are More Polarised Than Voters: Constitutional Revision in Japan.” European Political Science 19: 528–539. doi:10.1057/ s41304-020-00270-1. McElwain, Kenneth Mori, and Jean Marie Clipperton. 2014. “Constitutional Evolution: When Are Constitutions Amended Versus Replaced?” Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL. McElwain, Kenneth Mori, and Christian  G.  Winkler. 2015. “What’s Unique about Japan’s Constitution? A Comparative and Historical Analysis.” Journal of Japanese Studies 41, no. 2: 249–280. McElwain, Kenneth Mori, Christian G. Winkler, and Shusei Eshima. 2019. “The Proposer or the Proposal? Estimating Attitudes towards Constitutional Amendment in Japan.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC. Moore, Ray  A., and Donald  L.  Robinson. 2002. Partners for Democracy: Crafting the New Japanese State under MacArthur. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Pyle, Kenneth  B. 1996. The Japanese Question: Power and Purpose in a New Era. 2nd ed. Washington, DC: AEI Press. Sakaiya, Shiro. 2017. Kenpō to Yoron: Sengo Nihonjin wa Kenpō to Dō Mukiatte Kitanoka. Tokyo: Chikuma Shobou. Samuels, Richard J. 2007. Securing Japan: Tokyo’s Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Sunakawa Case. 1959.12.16. Supreme Court of Japan (Grand Bench). Versteeg, Mila, and Emily Zackin. 2016. “Constitutions Unentrenched: Toward an Alternative Theory of Constitutional Design.” American Political Science Review 110, no. 4): 657–674. doi:10.1017/S0003055416000447. Winkler, Christian G. 2011. The Quest for Japan’s New Constitution: An Analysis of Visions and Constitutional Reform Proposals (1980–2009). Routledge Contemporary Japan Series. London: Routledge.

chapter 3

Ja pa n ese Elector a l Systems si nce 1947 Steven R. Reed

In a democracy, electoral systems determine what one must do in order to win public office—the “pathways to power.” They are algorithms that detail how a distribution of votes is to be transformed into a distribution of seats, and how winning candidates are to be determined. As such, electoral systems exercise a powerful influence on democratic politics. Some of those effects are predictable, but none are determinate. All are affected by the political context at the time. In this chapter I will describe the electoral systems used in Japan since the end of World War II and analyze the effects each of those systems have had on Japanese democracy. I will begin with the more powerful lower house (the House of Representatives) of the Diet, which has used two different electoral systems during this period, then turn to the upper house (the House of Councillors), which has used three.

The House of Representatives The House of Representatives, or lower house, is the more powerful. The party or coalition that controls the House takes control of the government. Changes in the electoral system for the lower house thus reverberate throughout the political system. The Japanese party system developed under a multi-­member district system, and the political reforms of 1994 introduced a mixed-­member system, featuring two tiers.

Multi-­Member Districts From 1947 through 1990, elections to the lower house of the Diet used the single non-­ transferable vote (SNTV) in multi-­member districts (MMDs), or what the Japanese call

42   Steven R. Reed middle-­sized districts (chūsenkyoku-­sei). With a few exceptions, district magnitudes (M) ranged from three to five. Each voter had a single vote, and the top M candidates were elected, while the runner-­up (M+1) and lower candidates were defeated. This is a simple extension of single-­ member districts (SMDs), so I will call this system MMD. MMD has two key characteristics: (1) it fosters intraparty over interparty competition, and (2) it has an equilibrium of M+1 candidates per district. I will discuss each in turn. Under MMD, winning one seat in every district does not produce a majority, so a party must run more than one candidate per district in order to win control of the government. Doing so creates intraparty competition and is not conducive to party unity. Candidates who face co-­partisans in their district cannot depend on the party to win re-­election because rival candidates also depend upon the same party. One solution to this problem is to develop a personal vote. In Japan, candidates, especially those from larger parties, came to organize their personal votes into personal support organizations called kōenkai (Krauss and Pekkanen 2011, chap. 2). A party nomination was helpful, but kōenkai were the key to winning a seat. The competition among kōenkai from the same party was waged over service to the district and to the candidate’s supporters, not over broad public policy concerns. In this competition, members of the government had the advantage over members of the opposition because they could deliver the goods. Organizing and maintaining a kōenkai was an expensive proposition, and intraparty competition has been associated with political corruption in Italy (Golden and Chang 2001) and well as Japan (Nyblade and Reed 2008). Candidates with strong kōenkai were guaranteed re-­election, but they needed a party, preferably a party in government, to perform effectively in the Diet. In Japan this problem was solved by well-­organized factions within the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) (Krauss and Pekkanen  2011, chap. 4). Candidates running against each other in the same district tended to join different factions (Reed and Bolland 1999). Factions provided some electoral support, but their primary functions involved intraparty maneuvering. Most importantly, factions proved necessary to winning the party presidential election and becoming prime minister. The prime minister then used cabinet appointments to either reward the factions who supported him or to maintain a balance among the factions to maintain intraparty peace. Campaigning was candidate-­centered. Most notably, the LDP had little control over who would run or how many LDP-­affiliated candidates would run in a district. In the LDP’s first election campaign in 1958, the party established a reasonable set of criteria for receiving an LDP nomination. However, twenty-­one days before the vote it issued “certificates of party membership” to twenty-­nine candidates who had been refused the nomination. These certificates allowed the candidates to use the party label on their posters, and party members were allowed to campaign on their behalf. These candidates were running in any case, and were supported by an LDP faction and local LDP officials. By the day of the election, all twenty-­ nine candidates had obtained an official nomination. Seven were under criminal investigation at the time. The LDP’s effective nomination policy thus became, “if you win, you are LDP” (kateba Jimintō) (Reed 2009).

Japanese Electoral Systems since 1947   43 A candidate could campaign vigorously against party policy and/or particular LDP incumbents in the district and go unpunished as long as he won a seat. He could be convicted of political corruption and, if he won re-­election as an independent, would be allowed back into the party. He could resign from the LDP, form a new party, run against the LDP, and, as long as he won a seat, be allowed back into the party. The LDP often tried to gain control over nominations but, as long as MMD was in effect, their efforts were futile. The LDP was held together by its control of the government, not by agreement on policy issues. MMD also hindered cooperation among the opposition parties. The largest opposition party, the Japan Socialist Party (JSP) was steadily reduced to running one candidate per district, and none of the other opposition parties ever grew large enough to consistently run multiple candidates (Reed and Bolland 1999). The opposition parties were perfectly aware of the need to cooperate among themselves, and they made significant progress toward that goal in the 1970s (Christensen 2000). Yet when LDP lost votes and seats in the 1989 upper house and 1990 general elections due to their enactment of the consumption tax and a major scandal, opposition gains were concentrated in the JSP, and other opposition parties lost interest in further cooperation (Reed 1991). MMD was thus partially responsible for many of the problems facing Japanese democracy between 1947 and 1990: a predominant party system with no alternation in power; a fragmented opposition and a factionalized governing party; candidate-­based, issue-­free election campaigns; and political corruption. The second key characteristic of MMD is the equilibrium of M+1 candidates per district (Cox 1997; Reed 1990). This is a simple extension of Duverger’s Law, which states that the equilibrium number of candidates in a single-­member district (M = 1) is two (1+1). One should expect most four-­member districts to have five candidates. In a single-­ member district a candidate with one more vote than 50 percent of the total cannot finish any lower than first, and is thus guaranteed a seat. Similarly, in a four-­member district, a candidate with one more vote than 20 percent of the total can finish no lower than fourth and is thus guaranteed a seat. The minimum number of votes required to win a seat under SMD or MMD is thus one more than 1/M+1, the Droop quota. Perfect M+1 equilibria seldom happened, but in any given election, most districts were near the predicted M+1 candidates, and districts that deviated from the predicted equilibrium tended to move back toward it in the next election. The M+1 rule also has several important ramifications. Research has focused on the problem of excess competition (ranritsu). When the number of serious candidates exceeds M+1, the result in seats need not be closely related to the result in votes. Most notably, a party can lose a seat by running too many candidates (Cox and Niou 1994). For example, in a four-­member district a party might elect two candidates by finishing third and fourth. If, however, the party divided its votes among three candidates, those candidates might finish fourth, fifth, and sixth, electing only the candidate who finished fourth. The number of seats won by a party can change even if the number of votes won by that party have not. The second ramification has received much less attention. In districts at equilibrium, all but one candidate is guaranteed a seat. If only five candidates

44   Steven R. Reed are contesting a four-­member district, then four of those candidates will win a seat irrespective of their vote totals. If all districts were at equilibrium, a strong swing from one party to another could not alter the number of seats won by a given party by any more than one seat per district. In this way MMD can “muffle the swing” (Mair 1982). Japanese elections results have not been particularly volatile, so the muffling effect may have been as important as excessive competition.

The Mixed-­Member System In 1994 the government passed a major political reform that replaced MMD with the current mixed-­member system. One tier is elected from single-­member districts and the other under proportional representation (PR). The SMD tier originally had 300 seats, but that number has been reduced, standing at 289 in the 2017 election. The PR tier originally had 200 seats but that has also been reduced, standing at 176 in the 2017 election. Each tier functioned much as theoretically expected.

The SMD Tier The SMD tier has obeyed Duverger’s Law in the fashion that should be expected, and also much like the SMDs functioned in Italy’s similar mixed-­ member system (Reed 2001). First, intraparty competition was rapidly eliminated. No district has seen two candidates nominated by the same party in any SMD. Under MMD the LDP often solved nomination problems by letting two independents seeking the LDP nomination to run as independents, the winner to be nominated by the LDP after the election. Under SMD this practice has been followed in only four SMDs in the eight elections between 1996 and 2017. The LDP nominated no candidates, instead allowing two LDP-­affiliated independents to run against each other in Miyazaki 2nd and 3rd districts in 2003, and it did the same in Yamanashi 2nd district, Hyogo 12th, and Saitama 10th in 2017. In each case, the opposition party stood no chance of winning the SMD, and in each case the losing LDP candidate was not satisfied to simply accept the outcome and the local LDP remained divided. Intraparty competition is not conducive to party unity. Bipolar competition and the percentage of districts that featured one candidate from the government and one from the opposition, what Cox calls linkage (Cox  1997), increased rapidly. Finally, the opposition DPJ defeated the LDP in the 2009 election, producing the first lasting (three years and three months) alternation in power since 1955. However, progress toward the theoretical equilibrium was reversed in 2012 and had yet to be restored by the 2017 election. The LDP has since won consecutive elections against a fragmented opposition. In order to understand this deviation from the expected equilibrium, one must remember that Duverger’s Law concerns elections, not governing. The DPJ proved capable of defeating the LDP but incapable of governing. This is similar to the Italian experience under a similar electoral system (Hopkin 2015). In Japan the opposition parties are perfectly aware of the necessity of providing a united front against the LDP, but they disagree on the best strategy for doing so. When a party

Japanese Electoral Systems since 1947   45 system collapses, as it did in Japan and Italy, constructing a new party capable of governing takes much more time than constructing one capable of winning an election.

The PR Tier Proportional representation (PR) uses a formula to convert a party’s percentage of the vote into its percentage of seats. Proportionality, the degree to which those two percentages are equal, depends upon district magnitude: districts with larger M produce more proportional results, making it easier for small parties to win seats (Taagepera and Shugart 1989). The PR tier for Japan’s lower house elections is divided into eleven blocs with M ranging from six to twenty-­eight in 2017. Thus, in 2017, four different parties won seats in the six-­member bloc while six won seats in the twenty-­eight-­member bloc. PR makes it easier for small parties to win seats, but in Japan only one small party has been able to survive, primarily by winning PR seats, the JCP. In 2017 the party won one SMD in Okinawa but eleven in PR. The JCP is well organized and has been running many candidates with no hope of winning since the 1960s. It is not deterred by electoral defeat. The most successful small party is Kōmeitō, the religious party. Kōmeitō joined the LDP in coalition and the two parties cooperate through cross-­tier vote exchanges, with the LDP providing some PR votes to Kōmeitō and Kōmeitō providing SMD votes to LDP candidates. Kōmeitō could survive on its own and running only in PR, but participating in the coalition allows it to win several SMDs. The LDP runs no candidate of its own and supports the Kōmeitō candidate. It may also win a few additional PR seats due to the PR votes it receives from the LDP. While both tiers function much as expected, the most interesting features of the mixed-­member system concerns the interaction between the two tiers. The PR tier is a closed list, the party decides the order in which their candidates win PR seats, and voters cannot alter that order. However, the parties do have the option of nominating SMD candidates in PR (dual listing) and may rank any number of them at the same rank. When the results are tallied, dual-­listed candidates who won their SMDs are removed from the PR lists and the SMD losers are re-­ranked according to how close they came to winning their SMD. Dual-­listed SMD candidates with tied ranks thus have an incentive to campaign hard in their districts. Even if they cannot defeat their district rival, they increase their chances of winning a PR seat. Candidates nominated only in PR have no such incentive. A candidate ranked first on the PR list is guaranteed a seat as long as her party wins one seat, and thus need not campaign at all. A candidate ranked on the cusp of winning the party’s last PR seat still has little incentive to campaign, because her efforts are unlikely to increase the party’s total vote enough to increase the number of PR seats allocated to the party. Parties experimented with double listing, but large parties soon settled on the strategy of using PR ranking primarily as a strategy for winning SMD seats (Di Virgilio and Reed 2011). These parties rank very few pure PR candidates at the top of the list. These winnable PR list positions represent a bargain struck between the candidate and the party, called “negotiated nominations.” One way negotiated nominations are used is to entice a candidate to run against a strong incumbent. The candidate has no chance of

46   Steven R. Reed winning the SMD, but a guaranteed PR nomination makes it worth the effort for both the candidate and the party. Large parties then nominate the rest of their SMD candidates right behind any negotiated nominees in a single large tied clump. These are “competitive nominations” because the candidates are forced to compete in the SMD to win a PR seat. Those below the clump are “token nominations” because they are given with no expectation that the candidate might actually win a seat, though landslide victories have resulted in token candidates winning seats. The phenomenon linking the two tiers that has received the most attention is contagion, the proposition that running a candidate in an SMD increases the party’s PR vote in that district (Herron and Nishikawa 2001). The contagion effect clearly exists, but the incentives produced by that effect have not proven strong enough to entice parties to run more candidates in SMDs. No party changed its nomination strategy to take advantage of the contagion effect.1 However, linkage has two more robust effects. First, in the short run dual listing reduces the number of noncompetitive districts simply by enticing candidates to run in hopeless SMDs. Second, in the longer run, candidates who win PR seats because of their performance in the SMD, dually nominated list winners (DNLWs), become incumbents representing the district. As such they can build both their own and their party’s organization and reputation in the district, what Nemoto (2018, 171) calls the “incumbency contagion effect.” Both of these effects clearly enhance the quality of Japanese democracy by ameliorating one of the biggest problems with pure SMD systems: the existence of long-­lasting noncompetitive regions like the “Solid South” in the United States.

The House of Councillors The House of Councillors, Japan’s upper house, is also elected from a mixed-­member system. Each councillor is elected for a six-­year term, and elections are held every three years. The upper tier has been changed twice, while the lower tier remains much as it was in 1947. I will start with the simpler lower tier.

The Prefectural Tier The lower tier is elected by SNTV MMD, with prefectures as districts, so we can call it the prefectural tier. Each prefecture is allocated a number of seats based roughly on its population, and the number of seats is adjusted regularly to reflect changes in population. District magnitude ranges from one to six. In 2019, Tokyo was the only six-­ member district. There were also four four-­member districts, four three-­member districts, four two-­member districts, and thirty-­two single-­member districts. Most districts thus have a single seat and, because of the staggered terms, two councillors in the Diet at any given time. Even though the number of seats varies, the range of one to

Japanese Electoral Systems since 1947   47 six is still far from reflecting the difference between Tokyo and Tottori, the prefecture with the fewest voters. The prefectural districts suffer from serious malapportionment, though not as extreme as the US Senate. The malapportionment problem could not be ameliorated as long as Tottori was allocated one seat per election. In 2015 the LDP-­led government made a bold baby step in the direction of reducing malapportionment by creating two double-­prefecture districts: Tottori-­Shimane and Kochi-­Tokushima. It was a baby step because it comes nowhere near solving the malapportionment problem. It was bold because it aroused the ire of all four prefectures involved and reduced the number of LDP seats. Each of the four prefectures had reliably elected one LDP councillor, for a total of four every election and eight in the Diet at any given time, but now each double-­prefecture district elects one for a total of two each election and four at any given time. There were moves within the LDP to revise the constitution to guarantee every prefecture one seat per election, but this was so blatantly self-­serving that it had no chance of passage. Instead, the LDP revised the law in 2018 to give each party two closed-­list nominations; that is, each party could nominate two candidates, who would both receive PR seats as long as the party won at least two PR seats. The LDP used these slots in 2019 to compensate the incumbents or candidates who could not be nominated in double-­prefecture districts. Though also self-­serving, the hurdle for revising a law is much lower than that for revising the constitution. The provision was designed to solve an LDP problem. No other established party had any use for it. However, a new party, Reiwa Shinsengumi,2 found an innovative use. The party’s charismatic leader, Tarō Yamamoto, nominated himself third on the PR list, giving the closed-­list seats to two candidates who suffer from ALS and depend upon cumbersome wheel chairs. The party won two seats, so the leader is not currently in the Diet. However, with only two Diet members, the new party forced the Diet to undertake major renovations to make their buildings barrier free. This is not textbook democracy, but it is a creative use of the electoral system and has kept a minuscule party in the news. Returning to the prefectural tier, it suffers from a second type of rural bias. Monroe and Rose describe a theoretical possibility that accurately describes the operation of the prefectural tier in Japan’s upper house: A major party that draws its support from urban areas may find itself fighting against many competitors if urban areas are also compressed into a few high magnitude districts. Conversely a major party that draws its support from rural areas may find itself relatively free of competition in many small magnitude districts. In the end, rural sentiment can be better translated into effective parliamentary representation than can urban sentiment, an important partisan impact of electoral system choice. (Monroe and Rose 2002, 68)

Even if enough multiple prefectures districts were added and solved the “one person one vote” problem, the prefectural tier would still suffer from a rural bias if most of the single-­member districts were rural and most of the multi-­member districts were urban.

48   Steven R. Reed

The Upper Tier Though the upper tier has used three different electoral systems during the postwar period, all share two common features. First, they use a single nationwide district. Every voter in Japan faces precisely the same choice set. Second, the threshold of victory is extremely low. A very low percentage of the vote wins a seat.

The National District System, 1947–1980 The first electoral system was simply SNTV MMD with an M of 50. In the first election in 1947, M was 100. The top fifty candidates were awarded six-­year terms and the next fifty were awarded three-­year terms. With such a large M, competition was chaotic and confusing to parties, candidates, and voters. It had, for example, the highest rate of invalid votes in Japan. One common mistake was writing the same name on both the prefectural and national district ballots (Asahi Shimbun, June 19, 1968). Since Japanese voters cast their vote by writing a candidate’s name on a blank ballot, campaigning focused on name recognition, and some voters appear to have remembered only one name. In 1950 the threshold for victory was less than half a percent of the vote, but it leveled off at a little over 1 percent after 1965. More concretely, in the 1950s a candidate had to convince around 150,000 voters to write his or her name on the ballot in order to win a seat, and the number rose steadily, reaching 600,000 votes by 1980, the last year it was used. Organizing a nationwide kōenkai of sufficient size was beyond the reach of all but the most famous personalities. One of the most successful strategies proved to be getting the support of a large, nationwide organization. Candidates sought support from such ­organizations, but, unlike kōenkai, the organization, not the candidate, was in control. Some organizations chose a candidate from among applicants, but most chose a ­prominent member of their own organization whom they could depend upon to ­represent their interests. A system of “sponsoring” candidates evolved in which organizations chose the candidate, took responsibility for electing their chosen candidate, and then asked a party to nominate him. Parties were delighted to nominate a candidate with a high probability of victory based on voters who might not even support the party. Like candidates with strong kōenkai, however, sponsored candidates did not depend on the party and thus acted more like interest group representatives than party members. Interest groups found that electing one of their own to the Diet gave them direct access to Diet deliberations. Labor unions sponsored candidates for Socialist parties, but an LDP nomination provided direct access to government deliberations while a nomination from an opposition party effectively locked the interest group out of those deliberations. The list of LDP-­nominated, organization-­sponsored candidates was long. Doctors, dentists, pharmacists, and nurses all sponsored candidates. Religious groups were also well represented (Klein and Reed 2014). Retired postmasters and agricultural groups both exercised a powerful influence over the policies that directly concerned

Japanese Electoral Systems since 1947   49 them (Maclachlan  2014). Organizations sponsored candidates, and those candidates were nominated by the LDP, but those organizations did not necessarily support LDP policies. They sought an LDP nomination not to support but to influence government policy. Indeed, the LDP nominated candidates sponsored by groups with the opposing policy positions. The clearest case involved doctors who supported abortion and a religious group that was the leading opponent of abortion (Norgen 2001). Both groups and the party got what they wanted: the groups wanted access to governmental policymaking, and the party wanted candidates who were virtually guaranteed to win seats. During this period of SNTV-­MMD in both houses of the Diet, LDP campaigning was candidate-­centered. The LDP could not enforce party discipline or keep candidates “on message.” Organizations sponsored candidates to get access to political influence. If the LDP followed a policy that the organization opposed, it might rebel, but if they failed and the bill was passed, it was in the interest of the organization to return to the fold in order to exercise influence over its implementation. Supporting an opposition party that agreed with the organizational goal would only result in losing access to the policymaking process. For example, Japan bowed to US pressure and liberalized agricultural imports. Agricultural cooperatives (Nōkyō) rebelled. In Saga a candidate who refused an LDP nomination and instead ran for a new agricultural party and finished first in the 1960 election, but he lasted only that one election and Nōkyō returned to supporting the LDP. The practice of sponsoring candidates developed in response to the national district electoral system. It was one solution to the problem of how to win a seat in nationwide SNTV system with a district magnitude of 50. It also turned out to be an effective form of “organizational clientelism,” the exchange of governmental influence for the campaign effort of the organization. Thus, once established, the practice persisted through the next two electoral systems, even the most party-­centered of electoral systems, closed list PR.

Closed-­List PR (CLPR) 1983–1997 In closed-­list PR, each party is allocated a percentage of seats matching as close as possible their percentage of the vote. The seats are then allocated to candidates based on their rank on the party list. That rank is determined by the party in any way it sees fit. Voters cannot vote for a candidate, only for a party, so the key to winning a seat is getting a winnable position on the list. CLPR is thus a party-­centered electoral system. One aim of the reform was to strengthen Japanese parties by reducing the role of candidates and their personal votes. I have seen no analysis of campaigning under CLPR, so we do not know if campaigning became more party-­centered. We do, however, have some information on how the LDP and some of the larger opposition parties drew up their lists. The parties were in complete control of the list, but because they had evolved in a candidate-­based electoral system, few had developed criteria for drawing up a list. The LDP could not let candidates compete, leaving the decision up to the voters, as in “if you win you are LDP,” because voters could not vote for candidates. The LDP needed an

50   Steven R. Reed “objective” criteria, meaning one that did not require anyone to take responsibility for a judgment call and face accusations of bias. They settled on ranking candidates by how many party members they had recruited. Candidates thus competed not for votes but for party members. The candidate-­based nature of Japanese parties was thus maintained to some degree under the most party-­centered electoral system. The change from votes to party members induced changes in the organizations that sponsored candidates. The most notable change was the withdrawal of many religious groups from political activity. Most Japanese religious groups took the position that the proper way to participate in politics was to support good candidates, and that supporting a political party was improper. Religious voters thus balked at writing a party label on their ballots and were not interested in becoming party members (Klein and Reed 2014). Several anecdotes indicate that the LDP had problems in the early stages of adjusting to CLPR, but also that some of those problems were ameliorated as time passed. The KSD scandal in 2001 (Carlson and Reed 2018, 61–64) revealed the worst aspects of the LDP’s use of the number of party members recruited to determine a candidate’s rank on the party list. Masakuni Murakami won a seat in the upper house in 1980 as the sponsored candidate of the religious group Seichō no Ie, but that group decided not to sponsor candidates under open-­list PR (OLPR) for the reasons explained above. Murakami turned to KSD, a rapidly growing organization of small- and medium-­sized enterprises to fill the void. KSD immediately agreed, sending a list of KSD members to a printer, who transferred the names to applications for LDP party membership and payed all the dues (Asahi Shimbun, March 3, 2003). The members were not informed of their membership, and Murakami kept the list secret, protecting “his” party members from poaching by other candidates. This was not a party-­centered outcome. A later episode, however, indicates that reforms had been implemented. In 1998 Tokio Kano, the vice-­presided of Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), ran for the upper house, nominated by the LDP. In order to get that nomination, he submitted a list of a million members of his kōenkai. The party then called a sample of those members and asked if they supported the LDP and Kano. The party role in the nomination process had been expanded. What had not changed, however, was the type of tasks the sponsored candidate performed. Kano’s tireless efforts were credited with preventing the proposed separation of power generation and transmission, preventing the expansion of renewable energy, and maintaining the troubled development of nuclear fuel recycling (Kawakami 2018, 152–155).

Open-­List PR (OLPR), 2001 to the Present Open-­list PR allows voters to choose not only a party but also a candidate. The most common mechanism used to make a PR system open is to allow voters to choose a candidate from a party list after they choose a party. The Japanese system is, to my knowledge, the only OLPR system in which voters choose either the party or the candidate. Voters cast a single vote. They may cast it either for a party or for a candidate. All candidates are on a party list. The number of seats allocated to a party is determined by the sum of the party vote and the vote for all of the candidates on its list. Seats won by

Japanese Electoral Systems since 1947   51 the party are then allocated to candidates in the order of the number of personal votes they received. For candidates, the key to winning a seat is, first and foremost, to get a nomination from a large party. Few voters go to the trouble of writing a candidate’s name on the ballot, and simply vote for a party. Between 2001 and 2016, the average percentage of LDP voters who went to the trouble to vote for a candidate was 28 percent. In general, the more seats the party wins in the PR tier, the fewer personal votes needed to secure one of those seats. In addition, the party vote as a percentage of the total vote tends to be higher when the party is popular and lower when it is not. Candidate votes are more stable and reliable than party votes. Between 2001 and 2016, the minimum number of personal votes a candidate needed to win a seat for an LDP candidate averaged 124,231 votes, around a fifth of the 600,000 needed to win a seat under the national district system, which means that an LDP candidate needed only 0.17 percent the national vote to win a seat. This system has yet to draw sustained attention from the academic community, but a casual overview of winning candidates indicates that the low threshold of victory has lessened the need to run nationwide. It also gave new life to the practice of sponsored candidates. The vote mobilization capacity of organizations had fallen to about a fifth of the level of the last national district election, but because the threshold of victory also dropped by a similar amount, sponsored candidates continue to get nominations and win seats (Mainichi Shimbun, August 6, 2001). To illustrate this point, I chose a group that has been an influential support group for the LDP, has been well studied (Maclachan 2011), and has sponsored candidates under both the national and OLPR systems: the postmasters and their political arm, Taiju. As illustrated in Figure 3.1, Taiju mobilized an increasing number of votes between 1956 and 1980, exceeding a million in the last year of the national system. Under CLPR, voters could not vote for a candidate, so there is not data on how many votes Taiju mobilized between 1983 and 1998. Once CLPR was adopted, the number of votes fell to less than 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000

1956 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

0

Figure 3.1.  Total vote for Taiju sponsored candidates, 1956–2019. Source: Created by author using publicly available election returns.

52   Steven R. Reed half of its peak, numbers not seen since 1962. Their ability to win seats, however, ­survived, as did that of many other organizations. Taiju elected one candidate from 1956 through 2019, excepting only the 2007 and 2010 elections, virtually impervious to changes in the electoral system. In the 2001 election, Prime Minister Koizumi campaigned on promises of political reform, and specifically on privatizing the post office, a policy that directly threatened the interest of the postmasters. Taiju responded in traditional fashion by vowing to mobilize even more votes for the LDP. At the time, Taiju boasted the largest number of LDP members enrolled of any organization (Mainichi Shimbun, August 6, 2001). In urging their members to exert the maximum campaign effort, they made their goal perfectly clear: “In order to increase our voice (hatsugenryoku) within the party, we need to finish first in the PR tier. . . . We must demonstrate an overwhelming (attōteki) capacity to mobilize votes in order to put a stop to Koizumi’s plan to privatize the post office (Asahi Shimbun, September 26, 2001). Taiju achieved the goal of finishing first, but because their campaign efforts had exceeded legal limits, their candidate was forced to resign his seat. They also failed to prevent postal reform. After reform passed, Taiju shifted its support to the People’s New Party (PNP), which represented those LDP politicians who opposed this reform. Taiju did not sponsor a candidate in the 2007 House of Councillors election but did support the PNP, which won one seat in PR. In 2010 a Taiju-­sponsored candidate ran for the PNP but failed to win a seat. Their candidate finished first, but the PNP failed to win a single seat. With the same number of votes, the Taiju candidate would have finished first on the LDP list with over 100,000 votes and won a seat. In 2013 Taiju returned to the LDP. The PNP candidate who lost in 2010 served as chairman of the LDP’s 2013 candidate’s kōenkai (Maclachlan  2014, 451). Taiju-­sponsored candidates went on to win seats in 2013, 2016, and 2019.

Electoral Systems and the Quality of Democracy The “quality of democracy” is too broad a subject to deal with in a single chapter, so I will limit myself to arguably the biggest problem with postwar Japanese democracy, the predominant party system that prevented alternation in power. The electoral systems in use from the end of the war until 1983, particularly SNTV MMD in both the lower and upper houses, were congruent with a predominant party system. Intraparty competition has been associated with predominant party systems in Italy and Ireland as well as Japan. Intraparty competition hinders cooperation among opposition parties but also tends to fragment the dominant party. If the conservative parties had not merged into the LDP in 1955, a predominant party might not have developed. MMD facilitated but did not determine that outcome. The introduction of a

Japanese Electoral Systems since 1947   53 mixed-­member system in 1994 promoted bipolar competition, and one result of that competition was an alternation in power after only five elections. Yet national elections since 2012 have all produced overwhelming victories for the LDP-­Kōmeitō coalition. Has electoral reform failed? The simplest culprit to blame would be the PR tier of the mixed-­member system. However, there is good reason to doubt that a simple SMD system would have led to a more stable two-­party system. SMDs would have disadvantaged small parties more than the mixed system, but would have also made it more difficult for large opposition parties to challenge strong LDP incumbents. The Democrats dominated the US Congress (1954 through 1994) for two years longer than the LDP dominated the Japanese Diet, due in part to the Solid South. The real problem is not the promotion of bipolar competition but the inability of opposition parties to reach a consensus on policy or strategy. A second possible culprit is malapportionment. The LDP is strong in rural areas, and rural areas are overrepresented. The House of Councillors has a serious malapportionment problem, but Duverger’s Law is working in the single seat districts: the opposition offered a joint candidate in each SMD in both 2016 and 2019. There is great variation in the willingness of the various opposition parties to campaign for the joint candidate, but when the major opposition parties campaign together, they offer an effective challenge to the LDP and win a significant number of districts. The districts in which the opposition struggles are three-­member districts. The opposition parties run against each other, allowing the government parties to win two of the three seats. There are currently only four three-­member districts, and the governing parties won two seats in all but one of the eight contests held in 2016 and 2019. District magnitude seems to matter more than malapportionment, so if redistricting were to end the rural bias but reduce the number of single-­member districts, it might actually hurt the opposition and help the LDP. Reducing malapportionment in the upper house would enhance democracy in several ways, but it would not necessarily promote bipolar competition. Why do the opposition parties repeatedly splinter instead of working together to defeat the LDP? Why do they seem to prefer to hang separately instead of hanging together? Scanning over the many splits, the key seems to be a desire to influence public policy even if it means cooperating with the LDP. A recent defector from the Democratic Party for the People explained this clearly: “Even if the party develops policies it cannot change society. I want to work with the governing parties from an independent position to make policies that change society” (NHK News Web, September 30, 2019). Since 2012 the LDP has reestablished the presumption that, after the next election, the LDP will still be in power. If you want access to the policymaking process, your only option is to negotiate with the LDP. This is the same mechanism that produces the “organizational clientelism” analyzed above, and that phenomenon has proven impervious to two major electoral reforms. Electoral reform, especially the introduction of the mixed-­member system in 1994, has worked largely as should have been expected and has significantly enhanced the quality of Japanese democracy. Malapportionment has been reduced. Opposition parties face powerful incentives to present a united front against the government in the

54   Steven R. Reed SMDs and voters now have the choice of voting for or against the government in most single-­member districts. Once the opposition parties enter the Diet, however, the incentives to present a united front fade and the united front disintegrates. The most effective reform would, therefore, not be electoral reform but reform of Diet procedures, most clearly reform that gave opposition parties more access to the policymaking process. Electoral systems have powerful effects on the electoral behavior of parties and politicians, but only indirect effects on the behavior or parties and politicians in the legislature. Electoral reform seems to have approached the limits of its effectiveness in promoting alternation in power.

Notes 1. In the 2019 House of Councillors election, a new party, “Guard the Nation from NHK,” nominated anyone willing to run in as many prefectures as they could manage and elected their leader, who had been nominated at the top of the PR list. This is the only clear case in which a PR candidate won using a contamination effect strategy. 2. There is no English translation. Reiwa is the reign name of the new and popular emperor. The Shinsengumi was a group active in the period leading up to the Meiji Restoration. The name is thus a combination of two terms, each with positive but vague connotations.

References Carlson, Matthew, and Steven  R.  Reed. 2018. Political Corruption and Scandals in Japan. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Christensen, Ray. 2000. Ending the LDP Hegemony: Party Cooperation in Japan. Honolulu: University of Hawai‘i Press. Cox, Gary W. 1997. Making Votes Count. New York: Cambridge University Press. Cox, Gary W., and Emerson Niou. 1994. “Seat Bonuses under the Single Nontransferable Vote System: Evidence from Japan and Taiwan.” Comparative Politics 26, no. 2: 221–236. Di Virgilio, Aldo, and Steven R. Reed. 2011. “Nominating Candidates under New Rules in Italy and Japan: You Cannot Bargain with Resources You Do Not Have.” In A Natural Experiment on Electoral Law Reform: Evaluating the Long Run Consequences of 1990s Electoral Reform in Italy and Japan, edited by Daniela Giannetti and Bernard Grofman, 61–75. New York: Springer, 2011. Golden, Miriam A., and Eric C. C. Chang. 2001. “Competitive Corruption: Factional Conflict and Political Malfeasance in Postwar Italian Christian Democracy” World Politics 53, no. 4: 588–622. Herron, Erik S., and Misa Nishikawa. 2001. “Contamination Effects and the Number of Parties in Mixed-Superposition Electoral Systems” Electoral Studies 20: 63–86. Hopkin, Jonathan. 2015. “Bipolarity (and After).” In The Oxford Handbook of Italian Politics, edited by Erik Jones and Gianfranco Pasquino, 325–338. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Kawakami, Ryunoshin. 2018. Electric Power and Politics. Vol. 1. Tokyo: Keso Shobo. Klein, Axel, and Steven R. Reed. 2014. “Religious Groups in Japanese Electoral Politics.” In Kōmeitō: Politics and Religion in Japan, edited by George Ehrhardt, Axel Klein, Levi McLaughlin, and Steven R. Reed, 25–48. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Japanese Electoral Systems since 1947   55 Krauss, Ellis  S., and Robert  J.  Pekkanen. 2011. The Rise and Fall of Japan’s LDP. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Maclachlan, Patricia L. 2011. The People’s Post Office. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Maclachlan, Patricia L. 2014. “The Electoral Power of Japanese Interest Groups.” Journal of East Asian Studies 14: 429–458. Mair, Peter. 1982. “Muffling the Swing: STV and the Irish General Election of 1981.” West European Politics 5, no. 1: 75–90. Monroe, B.  L., and A.  G.  Rose. 2002. “Electoral Systems and Unimagined Consequences: Partisan Effects of Districted Proportional Representation.” American Journal of Political Science 46: 67–89. Nemoto, Kunianki. 2018. “Party Competition and the Electoral Rules.” In Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese General Election, edited by Robert Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, Ethan Scheiner, and Daniel M. Smith, 165–183. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Norgen, Tiana. 2001. Abortion before Birth Control. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Nyblade, Ben, and Steven  R.  Reed. 2008. “Who Cheats? Who Loots? Competition and Corruption in Japan, 1947–1993.” American Journal of Political Science 52: 926–941. Reed, Steven R. 1990. “Structure and Behaviour: Extending Duverger’s Law to the Japanese Case.” British Journal of Political Science 20, no. 3: 335–356. Reed, Steven R. 1991. “The 1990 General Election: Explaining the Historic Socialist Victory.” Electoral Studies 10, no. 3: 244–255. Reed, Steven R. 2001. “Duverger’s Law Is Working in Italy.” Comparative Political Studies 34, no. 3: 312–327. Reed, Steven  R. 2009. “Party Strategy or Candidate Strategy: How Does the LDP Run the Right Number of Candidates in Japan’s Multi-Member Districts?” Party Politics 15: 295–314. Reed, Steven R., and John M. Bolland. 1999. “The Fragmentation Effect of SNTV in Japan.” In Elections in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan under the Single Non-Transferable Vote, edited by Bernard Grofman, Sung-Chull Lee, Edwin A. Winckler, and Brian Woodall, 211–226. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Taagepera, Rein, and Matthew Sobeg Shugart. 1989. Seats and Votes. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

chapter 4

The Role of the Pr im e Mi n ister i n Ja pa n Aurelia George Mulgan

The Japanese Constitution vests executive power in the cabinet, which is collectively responsible to the Diet in the use of this power and which has the support of a parliamentary majority. The prime minister, as the head of the cabinet, has the constitutional power to appoint as well as to dismiss ministers of state. The constitution also allocates to the prime minister the functions of submitting bills to the Diet, countersigning bills into law, and reporting to the Diet on national and foreign affairs as well as exercising control and supervision over the administrative branches of government. An additional prerogative—that of dissolving the lower house (the House of Representatives)—has, in practice, devolved to the prime minister, although, formally speaking, the constitution allocates this right to the cabinet. Taken in their entirety, these constitutional provisions bestow considerable power on the prime minister, generating leadership rights both in government and over the ­cabinet (George Mulgan 2000). Other factors conducive to strong prime ministerial leadership are Japan’s formal structure as a majoritarian democracy rather than a consensual one (Cargill and Sakamoto 2008; Hayao 1993) and a dominant ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in power almost continuously for decades.1 Yet strong prime ministers have been the exception rather than the rule.2 Indeed, Japan’s political system has often lacked decisive political leadership, with prime ministers either unwilling or unable to exploit the full powers of their office. Japan has been described as a “leaderless state” (Tokuyama 1991, 37) with “weak and passive” prime ministers (Hayao 1993, 4) sitting atop a culturally rooted, bottom-­up, consensus-­building policy process rather than exerting assertive, individual top-­down leadership. Elucidating the role and influence of the prime minister as the nation’s leader therefore requires an understanding of the realities of his position as leader of his own party, and of how the policymaking system has worked in practice. Fundamentally, the prime

58   Aurelia George Mulgan minister has been weak because informal rules, political conventions, and practices, including the operation of institutionalized subgroupings within a dominant ruling party (Krauss and Pekkanen 2011), have created multiple veto players with whom he has had to contend in wielding power (Cargill and Sakamoto  2008). These factors have combined with a lack of independent policy resources available to the prime minister to make his position, both as party leader and as policymaker, unusually “vulnerable” when compared with prime ministers in other parliamentary democracies such as the United Kingdom. Over time, however, the dominant trend has been for prime ministers to acquire greater power, with processes of evolutionary change and reform in critical areas of Japan’s political and administrative systems contributing to this trend. Some prime ministers have also engaged proactively in efforts to buttress their own authority. Shinzō Abe is the standout example, setting new standards for the exercise of prime ministerial power. He has presided over the creation of a “prime ministerial executive” (George Mulgan 2018) centering on the prime minister himself and his office (Kantei), which holds formidable sway over all sectors of government, including cabinet ministers, the ruling LDP, and the bureaucracy. These developments have raised questions about democratic accountability and the possibility of a transition to authoritarian leadership (Stockwin  2018). The following sections discuss factors that have contributed to the prime minister’s traditionally weak position and those supporting the emergence of a much stronger prime minister. Each section adopts a different focus: the prime minister as party leader, the prime minister as policymaker, and the prime minister as leader of the nation.

The Prime Minister as Party Leader The LDP’s long-­term rule worked significantly to entrench features and operational aspects of the political system that weakened rather than strengthened the prime ­minister’s power and position. Although the prime minister is elected by the Diet (with the lower house having the decisive vote if the two houses select different candidates),3 because of the LDP’s position as the dominant ruling party, its presidential selection process has de facto chosen the prime minister. The procedure has involved an election in which the constituents have been the LDP’s Diet members, or one where both LDP Diet members and rank-­and-­file members can vote, with the system weighted in favor of Diet members until 2014. Operating continuously since the party’s first presidential election in 1956, the LDP’s intraparty factions (habatsu) have functioned as support groups for candidates to the party presidency. In order to become a serious candidate for the position, an LDP politician has needed to be either the head or top leader of a faction, to be well connected with faction members and with other senior LDP members (Hayao  1993), and to have acquired considerable seniority in the party on which promotion has been based

The Role of the Prime Minister in Japan   59 (Mishima 2012). Advanced leadership skills and a set of clear policy goals have been less important. Succeeding to the party presidency has also required support from a coalition of factions that could command a majority of LDP Diet members. Factions have made or broken alliances with other factions in order secure victory in the election (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019g) or to unseat unpopular prime ministers, and have rewarded members for their loyalty with “posts and money” (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019i, 1). Kakuei Tanaka, Takeo Miki, Takeo Fukuda, Masayoshi Ōhira, and Yasuhiro Nakasone, who were prime ministers in the 1970s and 1980s—like their predecessors in the 1950s and 1960s, such as Nobusuke Kishi, Hayato Ikeda, and Eisaku Satō—were all faction leaders. They formed partnerships and took turns as party leader in what were essentially “pseudo regime changes” (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019a, 4). Long-­term administrations were few, because faction leaders were eager to be prime minister, with replacements regularly taking over at around the two-­year mark. In the post-­Nakasone era, Shintarō Abe, Noboru Takeshita, and Kiichi Miyazawa competed as the leaders of the party’s three major factions. Takeshita led the largest faction inherited from Tanaka, with both having a reputation for being “kingmakers” (Yomiuri Shimbun  2019g) producing “puppet prime ministers” whom they ­manipulated from behind the scenes as “shadow shoguns” (Schlesinger  1997) and replaced at whim (Maeda and Takahara  2001). Tanaka remained influential over political and ­policy developments as faction leader even after he resigned as prime minister, resulting in a dual power structure in the administration of Prime Minister Miki, who replaced him. Likewise, Takeshita as faction leader exerted considerable influence over the Sōsuke Uno and Toshiki Kaifu administrations after he was forced out of office by a corruption scandal. The faction-­dominated selection system for prime minister meant that the position was primarily based on internal party-­political considerations relating to interfactional rivalries, conflicts, and compromises (Park 2001), rather than on popular endorsement or competence to do the job. Moreover, given that the prime minister’s primary constituency was his party, he was naturally encouraged into a transactional, compromise-­ brokering mode and discouraged from enunciating his own personal policy objectives (George Mulgan  2003b). He had to share power with the factions, which were both cohesive and autonomous (Takenaka 2015). The party leader’s patronage included appointing the lower house speaker and top executives of the party, in addition to prime ministerial powers of appointment to cabinet positions. However, in practice, the prime minister was beholden to the factions that formed his power base (the “mainstream” factions). He was under pressure to reward senior members with appointments to high office while being mindful of factional balance in order to limit the potential for “anti-­mainstream” factions to sabotage his position and replace him with their own candidate. Appointing cabinet members and senior party officials was, therefore, far from the prime minister’s exclusive right, given the factional considerations involved (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019e). The short time limit on incumbency also restricted prime ministerial authority. Party rules, which were strongly influenced by factional imperatives, required prime m ­ inisters

60   Aurelia George Mulgan to contest another presidential election after only two years in office,4 which ­compounded the difficulty prime ministers had in formulating long-­term policies (Maeda and Takahara 2001). This was a system that particularly advantaged skilled factional players rather than rewarding those who might become good prime ministers because they possessed strong leadership abilities, policy skills, and a well thought-­out policy agenda. Not only did the strength and cohesion of the factions make the prime minister’s position chronically insecure, but having to face quite separate general elections (every three years for the upper house [the House of Councillors] and at least every four years for the lower house [the House of Representatives])—with national elections held on average every eighteen months in practice—has made for a “short and unstable political cycle [and forced the prime minister] to take responsibility for his party’s result in both houses” (Takayasu 2014). Moreover, in the event of a “Twisted Diet,” where the ruling party has a majority in the lower house but not in the upper house, opposition parties with an upper house majority can boycott Diet sessions and successfully pass censure motions against the prime minister, undermining his position in his own party and in the broader electorate (Takayasu 2014). Japanese prime ministers thus face triple election tests on their longevity in office, with regular dual Diet elections compounding uncertainties over party support in the presidential election. In addition, unified local elections, which are held every four years, act as a referendum on prime ministerial performance. The multiple occasions on which potential challenges to the prime minister’s leadership can be justified has contributed to the high rate of turnover in this office. Between 1955 and 2000 there were twenty-­one prime ministers in Japan, compared with only ten in Britain—more than double the rate of turnover, with the average tenure of the forty-­two prime ministers under the postwar constitution only 2.1 years (Ochi 2015). In spite of comparable formal authority, the Japanese prime minister has “possessed far less real power than . . . [his] British counterpart” (Kollner 2005, 9) where the political cycle is longer and more stable. The tide in favor of factional ascendancy turned in the late 1980s with a series of “politics and money” scandals, which ultimately triggered a process of political reform. The centerpiece was lower house electoral reform in 1994, which abolished multi-­member districts that returned between two and six members and replaced them with a mixed system of single-­ seat and proportional representation (PR) districts. The reform removed the need for the LDP to run multiple candidates in the same district in order to win a majority of lower house seats. Likewise, it eliminated competition among the factions to ensure victory for their candidate running against candidates from other factions in the same district, and thus reduced candidates’ reliance on factions for campaign backing. Donations to factions from companies and organizations were banned and public subsidies were provided to political parties, eliminating the factions as the LDP’s main fundraising bodies and further diminishing their power as a source of campaign financing, and hence their leaders’ ability to unite members (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019g). As faction leader Ishiba Shigeru recalled, “I did think that the situation under the multi-­ seat constituency system, where four or five LDP members would run in constituencies with four or five seats and engage in intense battles amongst themselves, while the

The Role of the Prime Minister in Japan   61 f­ actions used the ‘three sacred treasures’ of money, posts, and election support, was not good” (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019b). With the introduction of single-­seat districts, party organizations became r­ esponsible for elections, with the prime minister as LDP president exercising final authority over endorsement decisions, which gave him more sway within the party (Takenaka 2013, 2019). The importance of the party leader’s role as the “poster boy for the election” also grew (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019g, 4) because of the relative decline in the value of the “personal vote” as a source of support for individual LDP candidates competing against each other in multi-­member constituencies. Thus, the prime minister’s position became more dependent on the strength of public support, which not only gained greater importance as a consideration in the selection of the party president, but also as an alternative, nonfactional source of power for the prime minister. His authority over personnel selections to higher office within the party and government was also reinforced. Electoral reform thus helped in various ways to centralize and strengthen the power of the prime minister (Takenaka 2013, 2019). Other reforms encouraged real policy debates between the candidates and allowed rank-­and-­file party members to have a direct vote in the LDP presidential election—a measure undertaken with a view to reinforcing the prime minister’s nonfactional base of support and to increasing the transparency of the selection process. In 2014 it was determined that the total for party members’ votes would be converted to the same number as the total for Diet members’ votes. As a result, party members’ votes were increased to 405 votes (from 300)—the same number as Diet members’ votes—in the 2018 leadership election (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019g). Other proactive efforts by LDP leaders to reduce factional influence included Nakasone’s proposal that prime ministers should be popularly elected in order to allow them to claim a popular mandate for implementing his policies (Angel  1988–1989). After Junichirō Koizumi’s successful bid for the presidency in 2001, he also directly challenged factional power, running as an unaffiliated candidate and encouraging other LDP Diet members to abandon their factions. Impressive numbers of unaffiliated “Koizumi children” subsequently won seats in the 2005 lower house election over those who had defied his policy leadership and been disendorsed by the party. Koizumi stuck to his declaration that he would “not consult anyone about personnel decisions” and did not accept any factional recommendations during his almost five and a half years in office, ignoring the proportional and seniority rules applied to distributing cabinet portfolios and to selecting the party’s core executive (Kollner 2005).5 His successful long-­term administration relied primarily on public not factional support (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019g). Since the Koizumi administration, no faction leader has become prime minister except for Tarō Asō, suggesting that they have lost some measure of control over their members in presidential elections. There has also been a rise in the number of officially nonfactionally affiliated LDP Diet members (75, or almost 20 percent of the LDP’s Diet membership of 406 in 2019, which is a number greater than the second-­largest Aso faction, with 56 members). In reality, however, only a handful of LDP Diet members are

62   Aurelia George Mulgan “completely unaffiliated,” belonging neither to a faction nor to any of the small informal loosely knit groups that discuss items of political interest and offer mutual support. The factions have retained their functional relevance to a majority of LDP Diet members as “information-­sharing groups” (Yomiuri Shimbun  2019a); as a promotion system to senior posts in the government, Diet and party; as a source of some political funding; as a support network; and as a means to provide organized backing for the prime ministership. The fact remains that for faction leaders, the bigger their faction, the closer they are to becoming party president (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019f). Prime Minister Abe (2012–) belongs to the Hosoda faction, one of seven in the LDP, which was founded by former Prime Minister Fukuda in 1962 and is the biggest, with ninety-­seven members (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019d). It raised over ¥270 million in 2017, more than any other faction. Since 2000, it has produced four out of five LDP prime ministers: Yoshiro Mori, Koizumi,6 Abe (his first administration in 2006–2007) and Yasuo Fukuda (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019h). When Abe became LDP president and prime minister again in 2012, he listened to factional requests concerning personnel decisions and appointed faction leader-­class members to cabinet and senior positions in the LDP in order to establish a stable base for his administration. Since then he has retained the support of almost all the party factions7 in awarding posts, either by treating them equally or in proportion to factional strengths. The LDP now operates as a collection of “friendly factions” backing “Abe as the single strong power” (Abe ikkyo) (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019c).8 The factions no longer perform the power-­sharing and checking functions that they did during their heyday with respect to both personnel affairs and policy issues, when faction meetings discussed policy options and promoted them competitively within the party. When the parliamentary LDP was divided into mainstream and anti-­mainstream factions, it was easier to hold the prime minister to account for his government’s policies. However, under the Abe administration this has become particularly difficult given its functioning as an “all-­mainstream” factional government.9 Abe has effectively subdued the ruling party as a source of challenge to his leadership. Indeed, a stable factional base has enabled him to become less accountable to his own party for missteps, including political scandals, with the LDP no longer acting “as a powerful internal watchdog of the administration” (Asahi Shimbun 2019).

The Prime Minister as Policymaker Factional and other internal party constraints on the prime minister’s independent standing and authority as party leader have traditionally been compounded by party constraints on his policy leadership. The LDP formed a separate and independent locus of policymaking with both a formal committee structure (the Policy Affairs Research Council, or PARC) and a collection of informal “policy tribes” or “special interest cliques” (zoku) operating within the PARC committees. The zoku functioned as the leading special-­ interest representatives, with expertise in policies affecting those

The Role of the Prime Minister in Japan   63 i­ nterests. They were particularly prominent in sectors where the government distributed ­significant amounts of largesse from the budget, or where the government’s regulatory powers required politicians to intercede with bureaucrats in order to mitigate the effects of government regulation. The zoku maintained close connections with industries and their representative organizations in these sectors, particularly as recipients of votes and political funds. They dominated the PARC committees focused on policies and laws for these sectors and similarly maintained direct and close connections with relevant bureaucrats. Such was their influence that almost no policies or bills were approved by  the PARC’s policy machinery without obtaining zoku approval first (George Mulgan 2000). Given that PARC approval was necessary for all major policy decisions and for legislation to proceed through the LDP’s Executive Council and thence to cabinet, it effectively functioned as a veto player in the policymaking process (Woodall 2014), limiting the prime minister’s policy influence and options. The prime minister’s policy leadership was also substantially curtailed by the central bureaucracy operating as an autonomous power structure, with bureaucrats regarding themselves as an independent source of policymaking authority and exercising extensive bureaucratic prerogatives (George Mulgan  2000), as well as control over policy advice, initiation, formulation, and implementation. In fact, it was the ruling party, not the prime minister as the leader of the government executive, that was the only political institution with sufficient power to bargain and negotiate with bureaucrats (George Mulgan  2003a). The Japanese policymaking process was thus “bottom-­up,” with the prime minister articulating the consensus of the ruling party and the bureaucracy (Angel 1988–1989; George Mulgan 2002). Moreover, representatives of interest groups joined the zoku and the bureaucrats as the primary policy working groups, forming “iron triangles” or “powerful, self-­serving subgovernments” (Woodall 2014, 168) dedicated to protecting vested interests in specific policy fields and presenting prime ministers bent on policy reform with powerful obstacles to change. Prime ministers were unable to prevail over “LDP-­bureaucracy-­ interest group dominance” (Stockwin 2018, 138), with their functions largely being to accept the decisions brokered by the party with the bureaucracy and interest groups, and to supervise the passage of these decisions into formal executive decisions and legislation. Foreign policy and diplomacy were the general exception to the rule, with the absence of a subgovernment allowing the prime minister to exercise greater policy initiative as head of the government and as leader of the nation (Hayao 1993). Nevertheless the prime minister also had to contend with an additional, general constraint on his policy leadership in the legislative process itself. Diet committees have constituted high hurdles to the passage of legislation, opposition parties can stall Diet proceedings with boycotts, binding no-­confidence motions and delaying tactics, and a powerful upper house has the capacity to influence legislative proceedings if the LDP does not have majority in that house.10 Ranged against the traditional power blocs at the center of Japanese policymaking, the prime minister had relatively meager administrative and policy support backing his

64   Aurelia George Mulgan leadership. The administrative body supporting the prime minister (Sorifu) was not an important power center in Japanese politics, given its lack of a domestic constituency and the entrenched sectionalism of the main ministries and agencies. The prime minister had his executive office (Kantei)—the equivalent of No. 10 Downing Street—but it had a small staff of less than twenty compared with a staff more than three times that number in No. 10 (Hayao 1993, 182). Four of the prime minister’s private secretaries were seconded from the bureaucracy, while appointments to the Kantei as chief cabinet secretary or deputy chief cabinet secretary were decided on a factional basis rather than by the prime minister’s personal choice (George Mulgan 2000). As a result, almost none of  those serving the prime minister actually owed their primary loyalty to him (Hayao 1993). The prime minister also battled the limitations of his position: he had no formal authority to table major policy proposals, reducing his role to that of a moderator rather than an initiator in cabinet meetings (George Mulgan 2000). Various institutional remedies were pursued to enhance prime ministerial leadership over policy. Nakasone endeavored “to fashion a ‘presidential-­style prime ministership’” (Hayao 1993, 16) by “strengthening the Kantei” (Makihara 2013) to provide independent backing for his policy leadership, and by establishing and using private advisory committees and government commissions to promote his own policy goals (Hayao 1993) and to circumvent the party’s policy organization (Makihara  2013). Ambitious for “administrative reform,” Nakasone also presided over the creation of a Management and Coordination Agency (MCA), which gave him greater oversight powers vis-­à-­vis the bureaucracy (Bevacqua 1997), and reorganized other support structures for the prime minister and cabinet, such as the Cabinet Secretariat, to provide a more efficient resource base and greater control over domestic and foreign policy formulation (Angel  1988–1989). He understood that establishing an advisory and information-­ gathering structure dedicated to assisting the prime minister was an important element in exercising policy authority (George Mulgan 2018). He also used his personal popularity to cultivate public support for his policy agenda in order to circumvent resistance from the bureaucracy and the ruling party. Following in Nakasone’s footsteps, Prime Minister Ryūtarō Hashimoto, motivated by sheer frustration with the limits of his power (George Mulgan 2018), took up the cause of administrative reform with an emphasis on prime ministerial leadership (kantei shudo). He set up an Administrative Reform Council under his direct supervision (Bevacqua 1997) and insisted on reforms “aimed precisely at increasing the authority of the prime minister” (Neary 2019, 79). The council produced its final report in 1997, with the administrative reforms later enacted under Prime Minister Keizō Obuchi—famous for asserting leadership in getting several vital financial reform bills passed into law— and implemented in January 2001 under Prime Minister Mori, going even further. Aiming explicitly to reduce and reorganize bureaucratic power (Bevacqua 1997), the reforms revamped the functions of the Cabinet Secretariat as “a powerful planning and coordinating body . . . [providing] direct assistance and support to the prime minister” (Administrative Reform Council  1997). The Secretariat could now act as “the brains behind Kantei leadership” (Shimizu 2005, 227) and buttress the prime minister’s power

The Role of the Prime Minister in Japan   65 to set national policy. Not only was it empowered to draft legislation (a function hitherto exclusively undertaken by bureaucratic ministries and agencies) but it could even overrule objections from the ministries in the name of implementing basic policies of the prime minister and cabinet (Makihara 2013). The prime minister was also given explicit authority to propose basic policies at cabinet meetings. In another major structural reform, the Sorifu was replaced by a much more powerful Cabinet Office, which was placed under the direct authority of the prime minister and chief cabinet secretary (Woodall 2014), and which was given the task of dealing directly with individual ministries on behalf of the prime minister and cabinet. Also established under the Cabinet Office were four new councils, including a Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP), which could draw outside experts into their discussions. The councils were empowered to advise the prime minister on policies in their areas of jurisdiction and were unconstrained by policy discussions in the bureaucracy and ruling party (George Mulgan 2018). In addition, the Kantei was expanded, with staff appointments now opened up to nongovernment personnel and made by the prime minister himself, rather than his relying on staff seconded from the bureaucracy (Gannon and Sahashi 2015). The reforms made prime minister–centered policymaking possible and undermined the role of the ruling party and bureaucracy in policymaking, as well as the alliance between zoku and ministry bureaucrats (George Mulgan 2018). Replacing Mori, Koizumi was the first prime minister to exploit the strengthened powers of the prime minister as policymaker (Takenaka 2006). He recaptured the political initiative and eliminated policy intervention by politicians and bureaucrats connected to special interest lobbies, thus bypassing iron triangle policymaking. He flouted the convention of the LDP’s prior screening of policies and bills and instead relied on advisory councils and executive support structures as drivers of reform, using them to issue a series of major policy initiatives, which he then urged on the party and the bureaucracy. In particular, the CEFP, which was chaired by the prime minister, became a major source of government initiatives (George Mulgan 2003b). Koizumi realized that the existing system of policymaking could not deliver the reforms that he wanted, because the dominant power structures in that system entrenched the vested interests that he sought to challenge. These dominant actors had, therefore, to be directly challenged and defeated in a national election (Umeda 2019) and replaced with a system of top-­down policymaking centering on the Kantei. Koizumi also launched Kantei-­led diplomacy to replace Foreign Ministry–led diplomacy (Neary 2019; Shinoda 2007), and he pursued a number of independent foreign policy initiatives. The success of his five-­ year tenure owed much to able and dedicated Kantei staff, including both unofficial advisors and official Cabinet Secretariat staff (Makihara 2013). Prime Minister Abe took the process of central government reform even further. The Kantei now encompasses a chief cabinet secretary, three deputy chief cabinet secretaries, six executive secretaries, and five special advisors, as well as three assistant chief cabinet secretaries and fifteen special advisors to the cabinet. Within this group are “Kantei bureaucrats,” almost all of whom have been recruited from the central ministries but who show strong personal loyalty to Abe and report directly to him. They exercise

66   Aurelia George Mulgan leadership in particular domains and effectively form “an extended framework of prime ministerial power” (George Mulgan 2020, 78). Substantial administrative support for the Kantei is also provided by the Cabinet Secretariat and Cabinet Office. The Cabinet Secretariat now operates as a large bu­reauc­ racy working for the Kantei (George Mulgan 2018) and as “a command center for realizing Abe’s signature policies spanning the economy, foreign and security policy” (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2017b, 4). It encompasses a National Security Secretariat (NSS), which serves a National Security Council headed by the prime minister, enhancing his ability to formulate and integrate foreign and defense policies, and control the relevant ministers (Takenaka  2019). The Cabinet Office encompasses “offices,” “secretariats,” and “headquarters,” as well as “ministers in charge (of certain issues)” and five “councils on important policies,” including the CEFP, as well as many other councils, headquarters, and committees, and so on (George Mulgan  2018). To his critics, Abe has created a “Kantei dictatorship” in which advisory organs provide the main logistical support to the Kantei’s intentions (JAcom 2016). Taken together, the Kantei and its bureaucratic and advisory support structures now comprise a formidable infrastructure of prime minister-­led policymaking that enables policy decisions that strongly reflect the prime minister’s own intentions and facilitates prime ministerial dominance (Machidori 2012). These developments have had considerable flow-­on effects on the policymaking powers of the LDP and the ministries. Now that the prime ministerial executive is using its authority to direct and decide national policy on all important issues, the LDP’s Executive Council and PARC, as well as the zoku that inhabit the PARC committees, have undergone a relative decline in both their power and importance, with the party’s role in policymaking shrinking in parallel with the increasing concentration of power in the Kantei. The PARC continues to screen major policies and bills, but the prime ministerial executive is no longer necessarily bound by the advance screening-­cum-­ prior-­approval process and the zoku no longer exercise blocking power over policy ­initiatives coming from the prime ministerial executive (George Mulgan  2018). The Kantei bureaucrats are also able to mobilize other bureaucrats to support the Abe administration’s policies, given their networks in the ministries (Iio 2019). As a result, both the LDP and government bureaucracy have been effectively eliminated as veto points in the policymaking process, and the alliance between them has also been eroded. The power of the central ministries has also been challenged by the establishment of a Cabinet Bureau of Personnel Affairs, which places personnel appointments to the higher echelons of the bureaucracy under the direct political control of the Kantei, particularly Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga (George Mulgan 2018). The careers of bureaucrats who dare to criticize the Kantei have suffered, while loyal bureaucrats have been promoted, producing “excessive deference to the Kantei” (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2017a, 4) as well as a new mode of behavior among public officials—so-­called sontaku— namely, “surmising the intentions of one’s boss and acting on them without receiving any specific instructions” (Osaki 2019). Shorthand descriptions of Abe’s leadership abound, such as Abe ikkyo and “prime ministerial rule” (shusho shihai) (George Mulgan 2018, 34), which represent powerful

The Role of the Prime Minister in Japan   67 criticism of the administration (Iio 2019). Japan has not transitioned to a “presidential” model where executive power resides in a single individual, but such is the concentration of policy leadership and power in the prime minister and the Kantei that political pluralism now appears “under threat” (Stockwin 2018, 143). With a cowed bureaucracy and a subservient ruling party, the Abe executive has few checks on its use of unbridled power apart from an election process where a divided opposition constitutes only a weak countervailing force. As a result, democratic institutions and principles have come under increasing challenge, including freedom of speech and of the media, as well as sustained harassment of critics (Stockwin  2018). Abe himself has refused to be held accountable in several cases of malfeasance and incompetence on the part of his administration, involving him personally, his wife, and Kantei personnel—to the point where Japan risks transitioning to weak and complacent democracy (George Mulgan 2019). If sustained, these developments will have broader implications for Japan’s development as a system of government. Such is the centralization of executive authority in the prime minister and Kantei that rather than evolving into an orthodox Westminster ­system of parliamentary cabinet government where the cabinet has supreme decision-­ making power, Japan appears to be bypassing this evolutionary step and following the example of Westminster systems where prime ministerial government has replaced ­cabinet government (Hayao 1993). This is because the prime ministerial executive has replaced the formal political executive as the supreme policymaking body (George Mulgan 2018). In addition to subduing the traditional veto players in the policymaking process represented by subgovernments or iron triangles, Abe gives strong direction to the cabinet, with individual ministers subordinated to the Kantei, which is effectively dictating cabinet policy. In this context, the cabinet becomes a forum merely to discuss and ratify the prime minister’s initiatives (George Mulgan  2018), and ministers become as insignificant as they were when they merely followed the lead of their ministries (Iio 2019).

The Prime Minister as Leader of the Nation Personal attributes such as a strong desire to wield power, substantial leadership capacities, personal resources, policy competence, and an ambition to implement specific policy goals have played a role in the performance of Japanese prime ministers. Irrespective of the party-­political and institutional environment, some prime ministers have demonstrated greater leadership skills and authority than others. In other words, electoral and administrative reforms have been necessary rather than sufficient conditions for the exercise of greater prime ministerial power. Even after substantial reform, strong prime ministerial leadership in Japan has not necessarily been a given. In other words, the evolutionary continuum of greater prime ministerial power has not been a steady growth process, but rather a trajectory punctuated by stronger and weaker prime ministers

68   Aurelia George Mulgan (Nyblade  2011)—for example, the prime ministers following Koizumi between 2006 and 2012—Abe (2006–2007), Yasuo Fukuda (2007–2008), Asō (2008–2009), Yukio Hatoyama (2009–2010), Naoto Kan (2010–2011), and Yoshihiko Noda (2011–2012)—all barely lasted more than a year in office and had no long-­term impact (Stockwin 2018). Indeed, such was the rate of turnover that the office was described as “an unusually precarious perch” (Nyblade  2011, 195). Prime ministerial power “was only reconfirmed when Abe made his comeback” (Mikuriya  2015, 185). The political and institutional environment in which the prime minister operates does not, therefore, necessarily guarantee strong prime ministerial leadership. Ultimately, how effective institutional changes turn out to be also depends on the individual leaders themselves and their personal ambitions and capacities (Mishima 2007). Media skills and the prime minister’s media profile are other factors that have become increasingly important in projecting his public image as an individual and in underpinning his policy authority. More intensive media coverage has meant a greater focus on the prime minister himself as the chief communicator of messages from the government (Takayasu 2014), and as the promulgator and defender of government policies, as well as an increased focus on the prime minister’s public image as the “face of the government” on television screens (Krauss and Nyblade 2005). Moreover, some prime ministers, such as Nakasone, Koizumi, and Abe, have sought proactively to use the mass media for their own political purposes in order to build support for their own policy initiatives. Nakasone, for example, “consciously cultivated television appearances as a way of appealing directly to the voter” (Neary 2019, 65). Koizumi stands out as the most charismatic and telegenic, which was an essential element of his political strategy to appeal to the public over the heads of LDP politicians and bureaucrats who were blocking his reforms. His top-­down leadership from the Kantei was supported by high public approval ratings. This was largely the result of his skillful “use of the media to project a uniquely appealing public persona” (Makihara 2013). Adopting a populist political style, he also created an era where TV stations greatly influenced politics, and he was a pioneer in using TV to communicate with the people (Yoshida 2019). He held daily “meet the press sessions” where he would repeat his favorite political mantras, such as “no growth without structural reform” (Yoshida 2019). He was critical in establishing the precedent whereby for a prime minister to last in Japanese politics, he had to cultivate a media style that appealed directly to the public in order to win their support. His style could even be described as that of a “presidential prime minister,” insofar as he endeavored to win voters’ support directly as a “now-­powerful prime minister” (Iio 2019). Abe, on the other hand, has actively cultivated the use of social media platforms in order to appeal to younger voters as a growing base of support for himself and the LDP.

Conclusion Japan is a parliamentary democracy with a dominant ruling party for most of the postwar period and a constitutionally strong political executive led by a prime minister.

The Role of the Prime Minister in Japan   69 However, in practice, prime ministerial powers have been “structurally constrained” compared with other parliamentary democracies established along Westminster lines, such as the United Kingdom. Even prime ministers who have aspired to visionary leadership have found formidable obstacles to policy success. Key have been their relations with their own parties, particularly the method of their election, and their access to independent policy advice and support. In this respect, Prime Minister Abe’s second administration, where both party-­political and institutional developments have facilitated the exercise of strong prime ministerial leadership, is unprecedented. Other prime ministers have also aspired to wield strong leadership power, such as Nakasone and Koizumi. They were notable exceptions to prime ministers who were more or less content to preside over their government, accepting policies put forward by the party and bureaucracy, and confining their personal input to negotiating compromises between warring factions and interests (George Mulgan 2003a). Even now, where any Japanese prime minister can be placed on the continuum of “weak” through “strong” remains an open question. Although there is increased focus on the prime minister “as an individual,” where bottom-­up meets top-­down for any Japanese prime minister and for any particular issue can vary. Bottom-­up forces remain active in the policymaking process. Bureaucrats from the central ministries and ruling party politicians still participate in policymaking and attempt to influence policy outcomes (George Mulgan 2016). Subgovernments also continue to operate, particularly in highly politicized domestic sectors, such as agriculture. Nevertheless, their policymaking dominance has been dimished and new conventions of prime ministerial authority have been established, which have eroded their power. In the 2019 upper house election, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan even made the state of Japan’s democracy an election issue, including campaigning against the politics of centralized Kantei leadership to counter Abe’s appeal for a continuation of “the politics of decision” (kimerareru seiji).

Notes 1. Since the formation of the LDP in 1955, twenty-­three out of twenty-­nine, or just under 80 percent, of Japanese prime ministers have represented the LDP: fifteen from 1955 until 1993; seven from 1996 until 2009; and one since 2012. Others have led a Japan New Party, Japan Renewal Party, and Japan Socialist Party coalition (1993–1996), and the Democratic Party of Japan (2009–2012). 2. Out of thirty-­four prime ministers in the postwar period, the main exceptions have been Shigeru Yoshida (1946–1947 and 1948–1954), Eisaku Satō (1964–1972), Yasuhiro Nakasone (1982–1987), Junichirō Koizumi (2001–2006) and Shinzō Abe (2012–). 3. This is possible if the majority party, or coalition of parties in the lower house, do not have a majority in the upper house. 4. There have been changes to LDP rules regarding the presidential term, both with respect to length of the term of office and the number of terms a president could serve, although for the longest period the maximum was two years with a limit of two consecutive terms. During Eisaku Satō’s presidency, there were no limits on presidential terms and the length of the term was extended from two to three years, which facilitated his long-­term

70   Aurelia George Mulgan ­ remiership (1964–1972); Nakasone’s two two-­year consecutive terms were allowed a spep cial one-­year term extension (Panda 2016); and Abe’s two three-­year terms were extended to three terms over nine years in October 2016. 5. Dalton (2015) argues that Koizumi did not ignore the factions completely; he created a cabinet “relatively independent of factional pressures” and almost half of the eighty-­three “Koizumi children” elected in 2005 had joined factions before Koizumi’s term as LDP president expired in 2006. 6. When Koizumi entered the Diet as a member of the LDP in 1970, he joined the Fukuda-­ Abe (Shintarō)-­Mori-­Hosoda faction. 7. In the 2018 election for LDP president, six out of the seven factions supported Abe (Yomiuri Shimbun, May 15, 2019). 8. Abe’s September 2019 cabinet contained an equivalent number of factionally affiliated and non-­affiliated members (six each) and was balanced across five of the seven factions. 9. Only the small Ishiba faction could be called an “anti-­mainstream faction” because it opposes Abe’s leadership. Prime Minister Takeshita also led an “all-­mainstream factional support base,” which empowered him to get things done such as introduce the unpopular consumption tax. 10. The LDP lost its majority in 1989 and only regained it in 2016.

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72   Aurelia George Mulgan Kantei with the ministries at their beck and call, work style reform, negotiations with the United States . . . Kantei monopolizes major policies, ‘only working on coordination’ Is something of the past]. Nihon Keizai Shimbun, April 18, 4. Nyblade, Benjamin. 2011. “The 21st Century Japanese Prime Minister: An Unusually Precarious Perch.” Journal of Social Science 61, no. 2: 195–209. Ochi, Takao. 2015. “Party Politics and Leadership Change in Japan: The Prime Ministerial Relay.” In Looking for Leadership: The Dilemma of Political Leadership in Japan, edited by Ryo Sahashi and James Gannon, 83–107. Tokyo and New York: Japan Center for International Exchange. Ōsaki, Tomohiro. 2019. “From Cardboard Factory to the Kantei? Yoshihide Suga Gets PR Makeover as Rumors of PM Bid Soar.” Japan Times, May 20. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news /2019/05/20/national/politics-diplomacy/japans-longest-serving-chief-cabinet-secretary -setting-stage-run-top-slot/#.XUPpki1L1ds. Panda, Rajaram. 2016. “Ensuring Political Stability: Debates for Third Term to Abe Shinzo in Office.” Eurasia Review, November 2. https://www.eurasiareview.com/02112016-ensuring -political-stability-debates-for-third-term-to-abe-shinzo-in-office-oped/. Park, Cheol Hee. 2001. “Factional Dynamics in Japan’s LDP since Political Reform: Continuity and Change.” Asian Survey 41, no. 3: 428–461. Schlesinger, J. M. 1997. Shadow Shoguns: The Rise and Fall of Japan’s Postwar Political Machine. New York: Simon & Schuster. Shimizu, Masato. 2005. Kantei Shudō: Koizumi Junichirō no kakumei [Kantei leadership: The Koizumi Junichirō revolution]. Tokyo: Nihon Keizai Shinbunsha. Shinoda, Tomohito. 2007. Koizumi Diplomacy: Japan’s Kantei Approach to Foreign and Defense Affairs. Seattle: University of Washington Press. Stockwin, J. A. A. 2018. “Political Transformation in Japan as a Source of Insight.” Japan Forum 30, no. 1: 132–147. Takayasu, Kensuke. 2014. “The Pressures of Change: The Office of Prime Minister in the United Kingdom and Japan.” Nippon.com, May 21. https://www.nippon.com/en/features /c00410/the-pressures-of-change-the-office-of-prime-minister-in-the-united-kingdom -and-japan.html. Takenaka, Harutaka. 2006. Shushō shihai: Nihon seiji no henbō [Prime ministerial dominance: The transformation of Japanese politics]. Tokyo: Chuo Koron Shinsha. Takenaka, Harutaka. 2013. “Japan in Pursuit of Westminster Democracy.” Nippon.com, September 25. https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a02301/japan-in-pursuit-of-westminster -democracy.html. Takenaka, Harutaka. 2015. “The Frequent Turnover of Japanese Prime Ministers: Still a Long Way to a Westminster Model.” In Looking for Leadership: The Dilemma of Political Leadership in Japan, edited by Ryo Sahashi and James Gannon, 46–82. Tokyo and New York: Japan Center for International Exchange. Takenaka, Harutaka. 2019. “Expansion of the Prime Minister’s Power in the Japanese Parliamentary System.” Asian Survey 58, no. 5: 844–869. Tokuyama, Jiro. 1991. “Japan’s Leaderless State.” Japan Echo 18, no. 4: 35–41. Umeda, Michio. 2019. “The Liberal Democratic Party: Its Adaptability and Predominance in Japanese Politics for 60 Years.” Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 4, no. 1: 8–22. Woodall, Brian. 2014. Growing Democracy in Japan: The Parliamentary Cabinet since 1868. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.

The Role of the Prime Minister in Japan   73 Yomiuri Shimbun. 2019a. “[Jimintō kenkyū] Habatsu (10) Imaya ‘jōhō kyōyū dantai’ Mikuriya Takashi shi (rensai)” [(A study of the LDP) factions (10) Factions now “information-sharing groups”; Takashi Mikuriya (series)]. Yomiuri Shimbun, May 24, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2019b. “[Jimintō kenkyū] Habatsu (9) Habahiroi giron no gendōryoku Ishiba Shigeru shi (rensai)” [(A study of the LDP) factions (9) Become the driving force behind wide-ranging discussions; Shigeru Ishiba (series)”]. Yomiuri Shimbun, May 23, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2019c. “[Jimintō kenkyū] Habatsu (8) Yowamaru kanshi kinō yūryo Koga Makoto shi (rensai)” [(A study of the LDP) factions (8) Concern over weakening checking function; Makoto Koga (series)]. Yomiuri Shimbun, May 22, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2019d. “[Jimintō kenkyū] Habatsu (7) Muhabatsu imaya ‘dai 2 seiryoku’ (rensai)” [(A study of the LDP) factions (7) Members who do not belong to any faction now form “second biggest force” (series)]. Yomiuri Shimbun, May 21, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2019e. “[Jimintō kenkyū] Habatsu (6) Jinji ‘suisen’ akumade sankō (rensai)” [(A study of the LDP) factions (6) “recommendations” only used as reference in personnel decisions (series)”]. Yomiuri Shimbun, May 19, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2019f. “[Jimintō kenkyū] Habatsu (5) Shosenkyoku kessoku ni hokorobi (rensai)” [(A study of the LDP) factions (5) Single-seat constituency system undermines solidarity (series)]. Yomiuri Shimbun, May 18, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2019g. “[Jimintō kenkyū] Habatsu (3) Sōsai wa ryōshū kara taichō (rensai)” [(A study of the LDP) factions (3) Trend of having faction leader as party leader wanes (series)]. Yomiuri Shimbun, May 15, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2019h. “[Jimintō kenkyū] Habatsu (2) Hosodaha sakae tsuzuku ‘1 kyō’ (­rensai)” [(A study of the LDP) factions (2) Hosoda faction flourishes, continues to be the “­single strong faction” (series)]. Yomiuri Shimbun, May 14, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2019i. “[Jimintō kenkyū] (1) Habatsu ryōshū Reiwa mo ugomeku (rensai) Sono 1” [(A Study of the LDP) (1) Faction leaders still active in the Reiwa era (series) Part 1]. Yomiuri Shimbun, May 13, 1. Yoshida, Reiji. 2019. “Junichiro Koizumi: Maverick Reformer Left Japan All Shook Up.” Japan Times, April 25. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/04/25/national/politics-diplomacy /junichiro-koizumi-maverick-reformer-left-japan-shook/#.XRQUDS1L1LA.

chapter 5

The Ja pa n e se Diet Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking Mikitaka Masuyama

The Japanese Diet has a rich history, dating back to 1890, making it the oldest ­non-­Western national parliament. Parliamentary studies traditionally emphasize legislative transformation and characterize whether parliaments are transformative or not.1 However, such an approach focuses on something observable in the parliament. It pays little attention to the transformation before parliament and the institutional structures that suppress certain parliamentary activities. Representative democracy functions through the interconnection of the legislative and electoral systems, affecting the fusion and diffusion of powers. It is critical to keep in mind what is observable and recordable in the parliament. To do so, we must adequately understand the institutional constraints under which legislative activities occur and the interaction between institution and behavior.2 This chapter provides an overview of parliamentary workings, focusing on parliamentary groups to which legislators belong to act in groups within the Diet and its central role in structuring their parliamentary behavior. The first part of the chapter illustrates the role of negotiation and the breakdown of negotiation between parliamentary groups in the Diet by exploring specific incidents and parliamentary practices that seem curious to outside observers. The second section reviews how parliament operates across a typical year, beginning with the annual process of budgeting and emphasizing the calendar’s critical role in establishing the daily practices, rules, and institutions in the Diet. In the third and final section, we examine how the Japanese political system’s structural features strongly influence parliamentary behavior, focusing on the legislative process, legislative-­executive relations, bicameralism, and parliamentary elections.

76   Mikitaka Masuyama

Strange Practices in the Diet This section illustrates the role of negotiation and the breakdown of negotiation between parliamentary groups in the Diet by exploring specific incidents and parliamentary practices that seem curious to outside observers.

Cow-­Walking and “Shame on You!” On June 15, 2017, the Diet ratified the amendment to the Act on Punishment of Organized Crimes and Control of Crime Proceeds (known as the “anti-­conspiracy” law). By resorting to a rarely invoked “interim report” on the bill, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and a junior coalition partner (Kōmeitō) bypassed deliberation and voting in the House of Councillors (upper house) Judicial Affairs Committee. The coalition’s strategy had to face fierce protests from opposition parties. Seven opposition members used a dilatory tactic, known as “cow-­walking” (gyūho), to obstruct voting by slowly moving toward the voting stand. Just before the upper house president declared their time was up, Tarō Yamamoto of the Liberal Party yelled “shame on you” and cast his “nay” vote.3 Mizuho Fukushima of the Social Democratic Party and others scrambled to cast their votes, although they were deemed invalid. The relevant part of the minutes is as follows: President (Chuichi Date): Please vote promptly.—Please vote promptly.—We have no choice but to limit the voting time. Please vote promptly.—We will limit voting time. The time for voting will be limited to two minutes. We will close the ballot box when the time comes. Please vote as soon as possible.—One minute has passed.—It will be the time limit soon.—It is time. We will close the ballot box. Time is up; time is up. [ballot box closure]

By reading the minutes, we have no way to know if Yamamoto yelled, “shame on you.” Accordingly, there were three wasted votes. We can search the video library and watch parliamentary video streaming at each house’s secretariat website. Although both houses originally made video streaming of plenary and committee meetings available for only one year, the House of Representatives (lower house) changed its policy so that the videos of proceedings since 2010 are available for viewing. Unfortunately, the video streaming of parliamentary proceedings for the upper house will not be available after one year. Thus, we can no longer check the video to see if Yamamoto yelled at the voting stand. The Diet members may be subject to disciplinary action for disrupting proceedings, including yelling at the time of voting and verbal and physical resistance—for example, holding signs saying “No Railroading” (Kyōkō Saiketsu Hantai)—and obstructing voting by rushing to the chairperson. However, the Diet members are rarely punished for

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   77 disruption, probably because the government prioritizes legislation and avoids further disruptions. As long as the ruling party or coalition holds comfortable majorities in the Diet, the opposition’s delaying tactics are useless. Following the passage of the anti-­conspiracy law in the upper house, four opposition parties, including the Liberal Party and the Social Democratic Party, submitted a ­no-­confidence motion against the cabinet. The motion was put to the vote and overwhelmingly rejected at a midnight plenary session in the lower house. According to the parliamentary secretariat, the lower house employees’ overtime allowance was over ten million yen (close to 100,000 US dollars).

Minutes and Videos Many things discussed in the Diet do not matter to ordinary people. Politics is something remote from ordinary life, similar to when people see doctors and consult lawyers, which they usually avoid unless necessary. Therefore, there must be something unusual to make people attentive to what is going on in the Diet. Otherwise, they do not care. The Japanese Constitution stipulates that each house of parliament shall keep proceeding records and put them into general circulation. The Diet Library currently provides digitized minutes for all parliamentary meetings via the Internet, covering from the Imperial Diet opening in 1890.4 The printed version of the minutes becomes “official” after transcription to eliminate filler, correct inappropriate wording, and add commas and periods so that the speech in the Diet can make sense as a written language.5 Written records are an essential source of parliamentary discussion, but few people spend time reading them in detail. Some people hear or watch radio and television broadcasts of the Diet proceedings, usually live coverage of the prime minister delivering a policy speech at a plenary session and facing a barrage of questions in the Budget Committee. But most people instantly change the channel when the TV starts broadcasting the Diet proceedings. As described earlier, we can even search the video library and watch video streaming of parliamentary proceedings at each house’s secretariat website, although the actual use is limited to watching the online live streaming of parliamentary proceedings.6

Mover There are some practices in the Diet that may appear peculiar to the public. For example, one of the lower house members plays the role of “mover.” By shouting “Speakerrrrrr” (Gichōōōōō), the mover is recognized by the Speaker to bring forward a motion at a plenary session. For example, on July 20, 2018, Taidō Tanose brought forward a motion at the lower house plenary session. One can quickly check the moment of parliamentary deliberation by using the video retrieval system we have developed.7 As displayed on the video screen, his name appears with the superimposed title “mover” (Giji Shinkō

78   Mikitaka Masuyama Gakari). Even microphones are available for him to speak from the aisle. As the subtitle indicates, he proposed a no-­confidence motion against the cabinet on the plenary session agenda without referring it to a committee. This practice started earlier, going back to the Imperial Diet. When one can only speak louder to make a motion from the floor, it gradually became customary to unnecessarily stretch out the last word in order to be recognized by the Speaker. It seems bizarre to do so in the age of electronics and microphones, although the practice remains as it is. Tanose ended with his word “Nozomimaaaaasu.” Although the position is not an official one, a ruling party member usually plays the role, and is someone who belongs to the House Management Committee (HMC), a standing committee in charge of parliamentary management. A motion brought forward by a “mover” is based on consultations among parliamentary groups and routinely adopted via unanimous consent.8 As in the example, it is up to the opposition to submit a no-­confidence motion and bypass a committee referral. Assuming that the opposition is unwilling to speed up parliamentary business, one may wonder why the opposition would give up an opportunity to grill ministers in committee. The reason is that the opposition submits a no-­confidence motion against the cabinet not to pass the no-­confidence motion, but rather to place it on the plenary session’s agenda.9 Knowing that there is no chance of passing the ­no-­confidence motion, the opposition dares to use the plenary session to one-­sidedly condemn the government and express its frustration for legislative incompetence.

Parliamentary Management Although there is no doubt about the importance of debates in parliament, it is right to say that heated arguments may not necessarily help parliament members reach an informed decision. Neither an oratorical contest in college nor a TV debate show, parliament is a legislative body of the government, which could be considered more similar to a stockholders’ meeting. How debates occur in parliament is governed by sets of rules and procedures, requiring the highest formality to discuss and make decisions on government affairs. In the Diet, the lower house Speaker (the upper house president) has the right to set the plenary meeting agenda. In practice, the Speaker abides by the decision made in the HMC. As the Diet Law states, the Speaker may, concerning the order of proceedings and other necessary matters, consult with the chairperson of the HMC and the consultative members appointed by the HMC. The HMC of each house consists of twenty-­five members, allotted to each parliamentary group according to its size. The chairperson and the directors of the HMC regularly meet during the Diet session and deal with all procedural matters. Tradition requires that the HMC directors’ decisions be unanimous, making interparty consultations and negotiations essential for parliamentary management. Also, each political party has an organization called the Diet Affairs Committee, whose leading members usually hold the director position of

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   79 the HMC, responsible for interparty consultation and intraparty coordination, and functioning as a lubricant for parliamentary business. It is not easy to arrange even the plenary chamber seats without such consultation and negotiation. In principle, parliamentary members should be treated equally and may take a seat anywhere they want. Seating depends not on a “first-­come, first-­served” basis. Cox and McCubbins (2011, 451) use the metaphor of air traffic control: “Just as aircraft are not provided landing time on a ‘first come, first served’ basis at busy airports, so bills are not provided plenary time on a ‘first come, first served’ basis in busy assemblies.” Legislative institutions develop so that busy legislatures can limit access to the legislative agenda and avoid a plenary bottleneck. It eventually comes down to who can gain or prevent access to plenary time and select the presiding officer, and thus set the agenda of plenary meetings.10 According to the house rules, the Speaker arranges the plenary chamber seats at the beginning of every session. In practice, the lower house, with provisional seating, and presided by the Secretary-­General as the Acting Speaker, selects both the Speaker and the Vice-­Speaker upon the first convocation of the Diet after a general election. Then the newly elected Speaker confirms the seats as provisionally arranged by the parliamentary group. Consequently, the Diet members can vote by simply standing up from their seats and figure out whether the yeas have it. In short, the daily operation of the parliamentary business depends on consultations among parliamentary groups. Those representing parliamentary groups deal with all procedural matters, including, but not limited to, setting the agenda of plenary meetings. Thus, it is no surprise if a Diet member suddenly speaks louder to make a motion from the floor. Also, the parliamentary groups share the time allowed for oral questions according to their size. The Diet members need not belong to a parliamentary group. Nevertheless, if they do not, they must be prepared to suffer a disadvantage in parliamentary activities.

Question Notice Due to the prevalence of consultations among parliamentary groups, there are other seemingly strange parliamentary practices. An agreement known as “Question Notice” (Shitsumon Tsūkoku) requires a Diet member to prepare questions by noon two days before a meeting. For example, in the Lower House Budget Committee on February 5, 2016, Shinzō Abe, who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2007 and again from 2012 to 2020, refused to answer a question because there was no Question Notice in advance.11 If debates in parliament are important, one may wonder why the opposition would agree to give advance notice on questions, which is like revealing one’s hands. It may even be bizarre that one can justify the refusal to answer parliamentary questions because there is no advance notice of the questions. Perhaps Japanese politicians are not accustomed to arguing vehemently. Moreover, it probably makes sense for an opposition that plays the game to lose. The opposition has

80   Mikitaka Masuyama neither the ability nor the will to present viable alternatives to government policies. Thus, it concentrates its efforts on harassing ministers with a barrage of questions and maneuvering them into making a slip of the tongue or a mistake in answering the questions. Therefore, the opposition should give advance notice and help ministers to prepare their answers. Otherwise, ministers can refuse to answer questions by saying that they are not prepared to do so, which may be just a waste of time for the opposition. Typically, the opposition gears up its efforts to scrutinize scandals and allegations of government mismanagement in the Budget Committee, where live debates are often televised, even they have little to do with budgetary matters. The Diet introduced the debate procedure à la Question Time in the British Parliament as part of the parliamentary reform in 1999. A party leaders’ debate is supposed to take place every Wednesday while the Diet is in session. However, in practice it is limited to once or twice per session. There is an agreement among parliamentary groups not to schedule a debate in the week during which the prime minister has a plan to attend another parliamentary meeting. Moreover, the opposition is often unenthusiastic about using debate among party leaders and prefers scrutinizing the government in a question-­and-­answer format. Also, the practices established in the Diet affect administrative organizations in various ways. For instance, due to the greater emphasis placed on scrutinizing the government, administrative officials make enormous efforts to prepare answers to parliamentary questions, give ministers advice on responding to the questions, and support ministers in dealing with unexpected questions.12 Despite the agreement on advance notice, Diet members often do not reveal questions until midnight before the meeting, forcing administrative officials to stay up all night preparing for the parliamentary meeting. Even if Diet members provide questions well in advance, it will remain the same unless the opposition shifts its focus from scrutinizing the government to presenting viable alternatives to government policies.

Railroading On November 4, 2016, the Lower House Select Committee voted on the Trans-­Pacific Partnership Agreement. Diet members rushed to the committee chairperson and held signs saying “No Railroading.”13 The committee room was too noisy, and it was even difficult to understand the chairperson’s remarks. From the opposition’s point of view, the government railroaded the controversial legislation through the committee. Notice, however, that these Diet members were well prepared to bring the placards. They knew that a vote would take place. They did not spontaneously rush to the chairperson, but coordinated their efforts to do so. Railroading is a more concerted action than it appears.14 From the opposite camera angle, we see the placards held up together, showing only their backs. Why did these Diet members turn the placards toward only one side? The Select Committee’s deliberation took place in the committee room, where broadcasting TV cameras shoot only in

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   81 one direction. Knowing that there was no way to prevent the bill from passing, the ­opposition used the voting stage as an opportunity to portray the government as dictatorial, tarnish the image of the government, and gain some political mileage. Diet members are well aware of broadcasting. They often use display boards when they ask questions in the committee, directing them toward TV cameras. The opposition prioritizes external appeal and pursues strategies to delay government legislation, using limited time and forcing the government to railroad legislation. In other words, it is more like appealing to the umpire in the ninth inning of a baseball game that the opponent is unfairly strong.

One Year in the Diet This section reviews how parliament operates across a typical year, beginning with the annual process of budgeting and emphasizing the calendar’s critical role in establishing the daily practices, rules, and institutions in the Diet.

Budget Deliberations Much of parliament’s work is of a routine and ordinary nature, and is hardly newsworthy. Given that the government has a comfortable majority, parliamentary business mainly proceeds as part of the annual process of budgeting. In Japan, the fiscal year starts in April, and consultations among parliamentary groups center on enacting the annual budget and related legislation in line with the fiscal calendar year. There are three categories of Diet sessions: ordinary, extraordinary, and special sessions. An ordinary session is convened once a year to deliberate the annual budget and related legislation for a term of 150 days by law, subject to extension or early termination. Currently, the Diet convenes an ordinary session in January.15 The cabinet may convene an extraordinary session whenever deemed necessary or when a quarter of the members of either house request one. The Diet convenes a special session within thirty days of a general election, which takes place within forty days from the date of lower house dissolution. At the beginning of a Diet session, the prime minister delivers speeches about government policies in both houses’ plenary meetings. Party representatives’ interpellations at the plenary will follow for a few days. Deliberations on the budget usually precede any other parliamentary business, and the Budget Committee continues to meet until the budget is adopted. By precedent, all cabinet members attend a Budget Committee meeting for the first couple of days. Following two weeks for general questions, the Budget Committee sometimes holds a meeting requiring the prime minister to attend and deliberates on specific issues intensively. The Diet Law states that the Budget Committee shall hold public hearings on the ­budget and summon witnesses to give evidence. Also, Budget Committee subcommittees

82   Mikitaka Masuyama are assigned to review the budget by subject area. At the final stage, the Budget Committee holds a meeting with all cabinet ministers in attendance for final questions. After committee members representing each parliamentary group get a chance to express their views, the Budget Committee votes on the budget. At the plenary session, the Budget Committee chairperson reports the committee deliberations’ process and results, followed by questions and discussion. The plenary takes a roll call vote on the budget. According to the constitution, the budget must be submitted first to the lower house. The upper house the repeats the same budget deliberation process.16 The lower house decision becomes the Diet decision if the upper house differs from the lower house in its final action and a conference committee reaches no agreement. The lower house decision on the budget also prevails if the upper house fails to take final action within thirty days (exclusive of recess) of receiving the budget passed by the lower house. Therefore, the budget should be approved before April 1 as long as the lower house passes the budget by March 2 and sends it to the upper house. In other words, the Diet should be convened in late January to have sufficient time for budget deliberations, which includes at least a week for the prime minister to deliver policy speeches and answer questions at plenary sessions of both houses, about four weeks to complete the budget deliberation process in the lower house, and thirty days for the upper house given by constitutional provision. Therefore, the Diet is usually convened around January 20, unless there is a need to discuss supplementary budget and other essential issues before the annual budget deliberations.

Legislative Time Scarcity The Diet can extend an ordinary session once, while an extraordinary session or a special session can be extended twice.17 In principle, it is possible to keep the Diet in session all year round by extending an ordinary session or holding extraordinary sessions. In practice, the Diet is in session for approximately two hundred days per year. The Diet customarily holds plenary sessions on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays in the lower house, and on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays in the upper house. By precedent, most of the committees meet two or three times a week on fixed days.18 Consequently, the actual working days of the Diet are roughly one hundred days per year. The budget deliberation process consumes substantial legislative time in an ordinary session, which lasts for 150 days. Moreover, other committees cannot meet until the Budget Committee finishes the budget deliberations, when the responsible cabinet ministers are available for questioning. After the Golden Week, a series of national holidays in early May, committees eventually pick up the pace in considering government legislation, as the end of the session approaches in a month. In particular, the Diet Law states that no pending matters are carried over to the next session unless the house adopts a resolution allowing a committee to continue deliberating on the matter. Given the number of actual working days left in the legislative calendar, time management becomes of paramount importance.19 In the final days of the session,

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   83 it comes down to a matter of parliamentary scheduling. The government prioritizes the passage of important legislation and prevents pending legislation from dying, while the opposition tries to waste scarce legislative time in obstructing government legislation, with little expectation of success.

Bill Deliberations The Diet is the highest organ of state power and the sole lawmaking body of the state. Diet members can propose legislation to their house. Since the 1955 Diet Law revision, a member bill must be cosponsored by at least twenty members in the lower house and at least ten in the upper house. A bill accompanying the budget must be cosponsored by at least fifty members in the lower house and at least twenty in the upper house. Also, Diet committees can submit legislation under their jurisdiction. As the committee’s presiding officer, the chair is responsible for submitting the bill to the house. According to the constitution, the prime minister submits legislation to the Diet on behalf of the cabinet. Most legislation enacted in the Diet originates from administrative ministries and agencies.20 Constitutionally, the prime minister must be a member of either house of the Diet. In a formal sense, the Diet is not drastically different from the US Congress, where only members are constitutionally empowered to introduce legislation.21 Moreover, legislation seriously considered and enacted in Congress mainly originates from the executive. Therefore, regardless of who proposes bills, administrative ministries and agencies play a central role in preparing legislation in both countries. Viewing the parliamentary systems that institutionally structure the legislative proc­ess, we can argue that any parliament achieves legislative transformation either in parliament or before parliament. Whether parliaments are transformative or not is just the institutional consequence of representative democracy affecting the fusion and diffusion of legislative and executive powers. Alternatively, if the legislative transformation becomes apparent when the parliament lacks prior transformation capacity, we must convert the criteria 180 degrees to evaluate parliaments and argue that transformative parliaments are only less transformative before the parliamentary stage. A committee reviews bills referred to it according to its jurisdiction. Some important bills are placed on a plenary session agenda to hear the legislative purpose before committee referral. Upon the demand of the introducer, a bill may bypass the committee if the house adopts a resolution to do so. By precedent in the lower house (and rule in the upper house), a bill submitted by a committee automatically becomes part of the plenary agenda. Once referred to a committee, the committee hears the legislative purpose from the introducer (the Diet member introducing the bill, or the cabinet minister responsible for the bill submitted by the prime minister). The committee then deliberates on the bill, demanding the presence of the introducer so that the committee members can ask specific questions. A committee may summon witnesses to give evidence, establish subcommittees, confer with other committees, and hold joint meetings. Also, a committee

84   Mikitaka Masuyama may hold public hearings on important bills. If there is a committee division, the ­committee members representing each parliamentary group can debate and vote on the bill. Otherwise, the committee passes the bill via unanimous consent. At a plenary session, the committee chairperson reports on the committee deliberations, process, and results, which may be followed by questions and debates. At the discretion of the presiding officer, or upon the demand of one-­fifth or more of the members present, the plenary takes a roll-­call vote on the bill. Otherwise, the house may pass the bill either by a standing vote or via unanimous consent. If a bill passes in the first house, the second house repeats the same process. A bill becomes law if it passes both houses.

Filibuster and Cloture A committee can choose not to send a bill to the plenary. However, the house may deliberate the bill in the plenary upon the demand of at least twenty members within seven days from the day of the committee’s decision. In addition, a committee may take no action on a bill and let it ultimately die when the session ends. There are two procedural options to salvage a bill shelved in the committee. First, the house may demand an “interim report” on the bill. After an interim report is requested, the house may set the time limit for committee deliberations or require the bill to be examined at a plenary session. Another option is “railroading,” as discussed in the previous section. Although interparty consultations are vital for committees to function effectively, it is eventually the chair’s prerogative to convene a meeting and entertain a motion to end deliberation. As long as the ruling party holds the committee chair position, the committee votes on a bill. Even if the committee votes down a bill, the chair can present a committee report to the house, consequently bringing the bill to the house floor. The presiding officer, who usually comes from the ruling party, puts the bill on the day’s order for a plenary session. The bill needs a simple majority vote to pass regardless of the committee’s decision. Given the institutional prerogatives that come with being the majority, ruling parties can railroad a bill through the Diet. Even if the committee chair is a member of the opposition party, the house majority can invoke the interim report procedure to extract a bill from the committee. In the example given at the beginning of this chapter, the committee could have voted on the bill. However, the LDP opted to require the interim report, perhaps out of consideration for the chair belonging to the junior coalition partner. In either case, the opposition tries to waste scarce legislative time, forcing the government to shortcut the committee process. At the ensuing plenary session, the opposition often makes motion after motion, demanding a roll-­call vote on each one and taking as much time as possible to cast votes. Nonetheless, as in the example of cow-­walking, the presiding officer can limit voting time by exercising the right to maintain order. Ultimately, the government can ram legislation into law as long as a majority in both houses is willing to do so.22

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   85 Although the opposition’s delaying tactics are useless in preventing government legislation, the government may bear the cost of resorting to parliamentary railroading, which sometimes wastes more time than the government is willing to spend when the opposition physically obstructs parliamentary business. It also provides the opposition with an opportunity to gain public sentiment to embarrass the government and improve the opposition’s electoral prospects. Occasionally, the government finds it more effective to make some concessions to the opposition rather than incurring the legislative and nonlegislative costs of railroading government legislation.23

How the Diet Works The final section examines how the Japanese political system’s structural features strongly influence parliamentary behavior, focusing on the legislative process, legislative-­executive relations, bicameralism, and parliamentary elections.

Parliamentary Cabinet System and Bicameralism As already discussed, the prime minister must be a Diet member, designated by both houses’ resolution. The constitution recognizes the precedence of the lower house over the upper house in designating the prime minister. If the two houses disagree in selecting the prime minister, the lower house’s decision becomes the Diet’s decision. Although both houses are popularly elected, the lower house has its fate tied to that of the cabinet through elections, while members of the upper house serve fixed terms. According to the house rules, the prime minister’s designation shall depend on single open votes in each house by absolute majority rule. For example, the LDP won the 2012 general election by a landslide, and Shinzō Abe became the prime minister for the second time. In the Diet session, Abe received 328 of the 478 votes cast in the lower house, and 107 of the 234 votes in the upper house. According to the house rules, a second round took place with the top two finishers from the first round, since no candidate garnered an absolute majority in the first round. The second finisher in the upper house was Banri Kaieda, who led the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and received 87 votes in the first round. In the second round, Abe received 107 votes again, while the number of votes for Kaieda only increased to 96. Thirty members cast blank votes. The upper house could have selected Kaieda if those thirty members had cast their votes for him. They could have abstained from voting in the first round if they had no desire to use their ballots in the second round. As the constitution stipulates, the decision of the lower house shall be the decision of the Diet if the two houses disagree in the selection of prime minister, and if a conference committee of both houses reaches no agreement, or the upper house fails to decide within ten days (exclusive of recess) after the lower house has decided. In other words,

86   Mikitaka Masuyama only the lower house matters in selecting the prime minister. In this regard, whatever the upper house does is inconsequential. For example, there were only six Communist Party members. Even if they voted for the party leader, there was no chance that they could designate their leader as prime minister. Knowing this, why did they waste their time voting for their leader? Upper house members cast their votes not to select a prime minister but to achieve something else. Perhaps they were only showing their loyalty to their leaders. As below, there is an unmistakable confidence relationship between the executive and legislative branches. This relationship is collective, although the Diet may censure specific ministers. The cabinet’s existence is dependent on the confidence of the lower house rather than the upper house. If the lower house passes a resolution of no confidence in the cabinet or defeats a confidence resolution, the cabinet must resign en masse, while the cabinet may dissolve the lower house within ten days and call an early election. The constitution states that the cabinet is collectively responsible to the Diet in the exercise of executive power. Accordingly, the upper house may question the cabinet and pass censure motions against the prime minister or other ministers. Both houses of the Diet must agree to pass laws. When the two houses disagree on a bill, one may accept the amendments proposed by the other, or a conference committee of both houses can draft a bill, which both houses may approve. As the constitution stipulates, the lower house can override the upper house with a two-­thirds majority vote if the disagreement remains. The lower house can also exercise the override power if the upper house fails to take final action within sixty days (exclusive of recess) of receiving the bill passed by the lower house. In other words, the upper house can kill a bill by not acting on it. To override the de facto veto power of the upper house, the lower house can pass a bill and send it to the upper house more than sixty days before the session closes. Moreover, the lower house needs a two-­thirds majority vote to pass the bill a second time. Although a conference committee may resolve differences between the two houses, it also requires a two-­ thirds majority to draft a compromise bill.24 These hurdles are difficult to overcome, and thus the government must control the upper house for successful legislation.25 As long as a ruling party or coalition holds a comfortable majority in both houses of the Diet, the legislative game is basically over at the time of bill submission. What occurs in the Diet is mostly irrelevant in determining the content of legislation. Nonetheless, the situation changed when the LDP lost control of the upper house in 2007, bringing about a period of unusual parliamentary management in a “divided” Diet.

Elections Members of the lower house serve until a general election is called, up to a maximum of four years. There are currently 465 seats in the lower house. Of those, 289 are for the single-­member districts, and 176 are proportional representation in 11 regional blocks.

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   87 Before the 1994 electoral reform, lower house members were from three-­to-­five member districts by plurality vote. In contrast, upper house members serve fixed six-­year terms, with half of the members standing for election every three years. There are 248 seats in the upper house.26 Of the 124 members subject to election each time, 74 are elected from prefectural districts by plurality vote, each returning from 1 to 6 members in proportion to the population. The remaining 50 are elected from a nationwide constituency by proportional representation with open lists.27 In Figure 5.1, a solid line depicts the total number of votes won by the LDP in the general elections over the last half-­century. The general elections up to 1993 were held under the multi-­member district system, while the last eight elections were under the combination of single-­member districts and proportional representation. Figure  5.1 shows only the total number of votes won in the district component to ensure comparability.28 The dashed line in Figure 5.1 depicts the total number of votes won by the largest non-­ LDP party in the lower house. In terms of the number of votes won nationwide, the LDP was doing well until the general election in 1990, while the major opposition party was a much smaller competitor. The LDP suffered considerable losses in the mid-­1990s. However, none of the opposition parties came close to the LDP for another decade. After the merger of the DPJ and the Liberal Party in 2003, the gap between the two major parties narrowed to roughly four million votes, even though the LDP began recovering in the new millennium. In 2005 the number of votes won by the DPJ rose to slightly less than twenty-­five million when Junichirō Koizumi, who served as prime minister from 2001 to 2005, maneuvered to set the election agenda on the issue of postal service privatization and brought a 35

LDP Non LDP

million votes

30 25 20 15 10 5 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Figure 5.1.  Total number of votes in lower house elections. Source: Data from Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

88   Mikitaka Masuyama sweeping victory for the LDP. In 2009 the DPJ won more than thirty million votes nationwide, and a single party surpassed the LDP for the first time in Japanese political history. The DPJ was the first genuinely successful large non-­LDP party in nearly sixty years.29 The 2012 election resulted in the third consecutive landslide election, but with a dramatic reversal of the 2009 election results. However, the LDP garnered fewer votes in 2012 than when it had lost three years earlier. Rather than a resurgence in popular support for the LDP, the 2012 election primarily marked the DPJ’s collapse. The DPJ lost twenty million votes in the single-­member districts, although those votes generally did not go to the LDP. Roughly half of those votes went to “third force” parties, and the other half stayed at home. Voter turnout was 10 percentage points lower in 2012 than in 2009, suggesting high levels of political malaise and voter dissatisfaction with the options they faced.30 Similar patterns are visible in the upper house. Figure 5.2 shows the total number of votes won by the LDP and the largest non-­LDP party in the prefectural districts for the upper house elections. A notable difference is that the Socialist Party won in the 1989 election, making the LDP unable to secure a single-­party majority in the upper house. While the LDP suffered losses in the mid-­1990s, the number of votes won by the largest non-­LDP party did not rise to twenty million votes until 2004. The DPJ eventually maintained a strong position in the upper house due to its success in 2007. The LDP’s victory in the 2012 lower house election gave it the upper hand in parliamentary politics, and the DPJ’s collapse was followed by a similar loss in 2013, leading to a stable coalition majority in the upper house. In 2016 the LDP regained a single-­party majority in both houses for the first time in twenty-­seven years. The situation remained the same in the 2019 upper house election. Figure 5.3 shows the parliamentary support governments have had in both houses following every national election since 2000, illustrating the percentage of seats­ 25

LDP Non LDP

million votes

20

15

10

5 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Figure 5.2.  Total number of votes in upper house elections. Source: Data from Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   89 20 16 12 8 %

4 0 –4 –8

2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2019 Lower House

Upper House

Figure 5.3.  Ruling parties’ seat margin, 2000–2019. Source: Data from Diet Secretariats.

c­ ontrolled by the ruling parties above or below 50 percent. Throughout this period, the government has had a majority in the lower house and generally enjoyed super-­ majorities in the lower house since 2005. However, the government typically has faced an opposition-­controlled upper house since 2007. The one exception was the nine months following the 2009 lower house election when the DPJ-­led coalition controlled the upper house’s slim majority. Following the 2013 upper house election, there was a return to the government supported by solid parliamentary majorities in both houses for the first time in six years.

Divided Diet The upper house has played a critical role in lawmaking, especially after the 1989 election, with no single party controlling the upper house. Its importance is symbolic in a series of events concerning the 1994 electoral reform and the 2005 postal service privatization, in both of which the original bill failed to pass in the upper house, with some of the ruling party members voting against it. The centrist coalition government made significant concessions to the opposition LDP seeking the most single-­member districts possible in the1994 reform. In the postal service privatization, Koizumi dissolved the lower house and brought a landslide victory to the LDP, forcing the upper house to accept the once rejected bill. The political situation entered a new phase in July 2007. While the ruling coalition of the LDP and Kōmeitō had held a majority of more than two-­thirds in the lower house, the

90   Mikitaka Masuyama DPJ gained the status of the largest party in the upper house due to the LDP’s humiliating defeat. In the “divided” Diet, the ruling coalition had control in the lower house but lacked a majority in the upper house. Yasuo Fukuda took over the premiership shortly after the 2007 election. His first task was to find a way to extend the refueling mission under the Anti-­Terrorism Law. Due to the DPJ remaining firmly opposed, the law expired in November, and the government introduced a new anti-­terrorism bill with a limited scope of activities. However, the upper house refused to deliberate the bill passed by the lower house. By extending the Diet session, the government was able to secure the enactment of the new anti-­terrorism legislation, which was voted down in the upper house and approved by a two-­thirds majority of the lower house. It was only one more day the constitutional provision of the sixty-­day rule for the upper house rejection becoming effective. Following this, the opposition vehemently protested against maintaining the surcharges for gasoline and road-­related taxes. In January 2008 the government submitted a stopgap bill to extend the provisional taxes beyond their expiration date, considering the constitutional provisions of two-­thirds override and sixty-­day rule. The opposition resorted to boycotting deliberations and physically blocking committee meetings, but eventually accepted a compromise jointly proposed by the presiding officers of both houses to complete deliberation on the provisional taxes by the end of March, in exchange for the ruling coalition withdrawing the stopgap bill. However, the debates over the provisional taxes stalled again, while the government secured the 2007 supplementary budget and the 2008 budget, given the constitutional thirty-­day rule. Despite the bipartisan agreement, the government and the opposition failed to hammer out a revision to the tax code. The government could not collect the provisional gasoline tax until the lower house eventually approved the provisional taxes with a second vote. The opposition adopted an uncompromising attitude toward the candidates for the Bank of Japan governor and deputy governors, whose appointment requires approval by both houses of the Diet. For the appointments of personnel requiring Diet approval, the lower house second-­vote method cannot be applied. The DPJ tenaciously opposed a ­former bureaucrat as the Bank of Japan governor and deputy governors. Consequently, the former position was vacant for more than two weeks and the latter for several months. In June 2008 the upper house approved a censure motion against Fukuda. As a countermeasure to the unprecedented censure motion, the ruling coalition passed a confidence motion in the lower house supporting Fukuda. There have been eleven instances (four times against the prime minister) of the upper house passing a censure motion when the government was not in control of the upper house. A censure motion has no formal legal consequences, but it may have substantial political effect, as the opposition may combine this with boycotting sessions the censured minister must attend, thus halting parliamentary proceedings. Fukuda unexpectedly announced his resignation in September 2008. Although the opposition-­controlled upper house selected the DPJ leader as its choice for the premiership, the lower house named Tarō Asō, and its decision became the Diet’s decision, as the

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   91 constitution stipulates. Like his predecessor, Aso had difficulty in dealing with the divided Diet. Aso initially planned to call an early election, but he had to postpone the general election for one year. The DPJ successfully seized the chance to come into power amid mounting disappointment with the LDP. The DPJ won by a historic landslide victory in the 2009 general election, ousting the LDP from power for the second time. The DPJ had a super-­majority in the lower house while maintaining a slim majority with junior coalition partners in the upper house. The DPJ leader, Yukio Hatoyama, faced difficulties in handling the US air station’s relocation in Okinawa. He came under pressure from the junior coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, pushing aggressively for the base to be relocated outside Okinawa. Although Hatoyama finally decided to move the air station, as agreed by the LDP-­Kōmeitō government, his decision led the Social Democratic Party to leave the ruling coalition. Taking responsibility for the confusion, Hatoyama announced in June his intention to step down. Shortly after selecting Naoto Kan as its new leader, the DPJ lost in the 2010 upper house election. Despite the overwhelming majority in the lower house, Kan faced the opposition-­controlled upper house. However, unlike after the 2007 election, the DPJ kept the largest party position in the upper house. Moreover, the 9.0 magnitude Tohoku earthquake occurred in March 2011, and the political repercussions of the disaster were notable. The DPJ and LDP agreed on immediate short-­term measures, although they could not so readily agree upon other acts. The government secured the passage of the 2011 budget despite its rejection by the opposition-­controlled upper house. Yoshihiko Noda, who came into office in late August, was the third DPJ prime minister in three years. The DPJ suffered a significant split in the summer of 2012, and in December it suffered a historic electoral defeat, losing three-­quarters of its seats in an election that was also marked by the return to power of the LDP led by Shinzō Abe. A  similar loss in the 2013 upper house election followed the DPJ’s collapse. The LDP eventually regained a single-­party majority in both houses of the Diet in 2016.

Legislative and Executive Powers The Diet is the highest organ of state power and the sole lawmaking body of the state. The Constitution of Japan states that a bill must pass both houses in identical form to become law, while the lower house can override the upper house through a two-­thirds majority vote. The cabinet is collectively responsible to the Diet in the exercise of executive power. However, the existence of the cabinet is dependent on the confidence of the lower house. The upper house is not constitutionally empowered to pass no-­confidence motions against the cabinet, while the cabinet is not authorized to dissolve the upper house. Although both houses are popularly elected, the lower house has its fate tied to that of the cabinet through elections. The constitutional principle of the Diet, which follows the fusion of power à la Westminster model, carries through the whole process of lawmaking, as long as a ruling party or coalition holds a comfortable majority in both houses. Nonetheless, the separation

92   Mikitaka Masuyama of powers principle included in the constitution may exacerbate interparty conflict to the point of gridlock when different groups control the two houses. Only half of the seats are up for grabs; the upper house is assured of continuity and expected to act as a shock absorber compared to the lower house, which is up for a general election and more sensitive to shifts in public opinion. In the upper house elections, candidates supported by various interest groups or national figures represent broader constituencies’ interests and are less dependent on party organizations than their lower house counterparts. Many observers tend to focus on how the two houses differ and argue that bicameralism is superfluous and redundant if the upper house agrees with the lower house.31 In addition to the distinctive second chamber, scholars traditionally assume decentralized committees, unanimity norm in parliamentary management, and scarcity of legislative time as the factors that facilitate opposition participation in lawmaking.32 However, as mentioned earlier about the legislative transformation under the separation of powers system, even if the upper house, which often deliberates after the lower house, does not act differently from the lower house, it may merely manifest the upper house’s prior transformation capacity. It is wrong to label the upper house as a rubber stamp or incompetent just because the two houses agree.33 In reality, the opposition pursues strategies to delay deliberations, with little expectation of success in obstructing legislation but hoping that the opposition gains public sentiment to embarrass the government. The government may opt for making concessions in consideration of the costs entailed in exercising procedural prerogatives. Nevertheless, it is the majoritarian basis of the Diet rules and procedures that compels the opposition to adopt dilatory tactics.34 The Diet imposes significant procedural hurdles that the government must overcome. However, the agenda power institutionally lies in the majority’s hands, establishing a “busy” legislature where the ruling parties control access to the legislative agenda and prioritize legislation that effectively promotes their policy goals.35 The electoral system, which was in place before the mid-­1990s, is the cause of factional politics. Under the three-­to-­five member district system, to retain a majority in the lower house a party needed to run more than one candidate in each district.36 Severe competition among conservative candidates somewhat successfully resulted in the LDP maintaining its unity through to the 1990s. Factions developed within the LDP, acting like parties within a party. In elections, voters expressed their preference among candidates while not selecting the government. Their choices had little impact on prime ministers’ alternation, which rested primarily on factional balance within the LDP.37 Following the demise of LDP dominance, the centrist coalition government introduced the current electoral system combining single-­member districts with proportional representation. As the district races gradually took the form of two-­party competition, factions lost their importance in helping candidates in elections. The DPJ eventually won by a landslide in 2009, ousting the LDP from power for the second time, although the two camps remained as loose coalitions of factions. The trend towards a two-­party system reversed in 2012, due primarily to the collapse of the DPJ. The last five general elections (2005–2017) were all landslide victories for a single party.38

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   93 The victorious party’s success in urban districts drove much of the dramatic shifting in election outcomes, which have many unattached “floating” voters who provided crucial swing votes. According to opinion polls, roughly 60 percent of people do not support any particular party, with some frequently changing the party they vote for, thus significantly influencing election outcomes. Leadership races turn into popularity contests to attract these floating voters. New prime ministers start with relatively high approval ratings but then usually face pressure from intraparty rivals as their rating declines.39 Shinzō Abe returned to office by bringing a landslide victory to the LDP in 2012. While enjoying super-­majorities in the lower house, the LDP continued to win the upper house elections, leading to a stable coalition majority in 2013 and a single-­party majority in 2016. By establishing a stable parliamentary basis, Abe became the longest-­ serving prime minister in Japan. Even though stepping forward to the exercise of ­collective self-­defense and the increase in the consumption tax rate, Abe emphasized economic revitalization and somewhat successfully maintained a relatively high approval rate. Also, he was eager to explore the possibility of constitutional revision. While the government generally succeeded in avoiding the outbreak of the new coronavirus infection, the political situation surrounding Abe deteriorated through the issues of the retirement age of public prosecutors and the candidate selection in the 2019 upper house election. His administration appeared to continue, although Abe resigned ­suddenly in August 2020 after his illness recurred. Yoshihide Suga, Chief Cabinet Secretary of the Abe administration, took over the premiership and made efforts to take measures against coronavirus and hold the postponed Olympic Games. Like other prime ministers, approval ratings are declining, while the time to the next general election is ticking out, which must be held by October 2021 when the term of the lower house members expires. As was the case with the 2009 general election, the 2021 general election may influence Japan’s future politics. The introduction of the single-­member district system in the lower house encouraged the two major camp competitions, bringing a landslide victory for either of the two camps in the general elections since 2005. Due to the dual candidacy and survival through proportional representation, there are many districts where more than one incumbent compete and work feverishly in constituency services. As an institutional consequence of the single-­member district system, elections provide voters with an opportunity to choose a government, and competitions become more party-­oriented than individualistic. As mentioned at the beginning of the chapter, Powell (2000) offers two visions of ­representative democracy: majoritarian control and proportional influence. The Diet is democratic in the sense that the majority controls parliamentary business and lawmaking. We should not confuse democracy’s dysfunction with that one party holding a dominant position and government turnover occurring less frequently. A government turnover occurs when the government fails to appeal to voters. There should be no government turnover if the government continues to win voters’ support. Under representative democracy, by focusing on social inclusiveness and promoting proportional influence, both dominant and minor parties exercise influence over policy matters according to their size.40

94   Mikitaka Masuyama However, if representative democracy emphasizes government selection, one-­party dominance makes the government and opposition relations permanently asymmetrical. Elections no longer provide an opportunity for voters to choose a government, and the majoritarian control principle to make the ruling party accountable will not work. The Diet essentially fulfills its institutional function through consultations among parliamentary groups. Nonetheless, unless the opposition offers a unified front against the government and shifts its parliamentary focus to presenting itself as a viable alternative to the government, legislative activities remain mismatched with electoral competitions, and the one-­party dominance continues.41

Notes 1. See Polsby (1975) for a classic description. 2. See Powell (2000) for two visions of representative democracy: majoritarian control and proportional influence. 3. https://www.sankei.com/politics/photos/170615/plt1706150026-­p2.html (accessed February 16, 2021). 4. http://kokkai.ndl.go.jp/. 5. Scholars have increasingly recognized that parliamentary discussions are an essential subject of analysis. See Proksch and Slapin (2014) and Bäck and Debus (2016). For the Diet, digitized minutes have become readily available on the Internet, and some scholars started conducting text analysis on the prime minister’s policy speeches (i.e., Curini et al. 2020). There may be no significant difference between the utterances and the minutes, since the prime minister reads the manuscript. However, it is crucial to keep in mind that the minutes do not contain all the parliamentary utterances. The minutes become readable by going through the transcription process from spoken language to written language. There has been a change in the method of such transcription over time. Due to TV and Internet broadcasting, the minutes are increasingly more faithful to the actual utterances. The spoken language itself has also changed from generation to generation, making the parliamentary speeches closer to everyday language. Linguistic scholars find parliamentary deliberation useful (Matsuda 2008). For example, we pronounce the same Japanese characters in multiple ways, and Matsuda (2016) analyzed the frequency of “case” as pronounced either “baai,” “bawai,” and “bayai” by checking the deliberation videos, which is impossible by just reading the minutes. 6. http://www.shugiintv.go.jp/index.php; http://www.webtv.sangiin.go.jp/webtv/index.php. 7. http://gclip1.grips.ac.jp/video/video/7561?t=21m57s&st=22m25s. Video Retrieval System for Diet Deliberations (http://gclip1.grips.ac.jp/video) uses speech recognition techniques to link the Diet minute database and the deliberation video libraries and allows one to retrieve and partially play the video clips corresponding to the minutes through keyword searching. 8. Since 1993, the upper house president has controlled the plenary agenda without relying on a “mover.” 9. See Masuyama (2009) for an analysis of the no-­confidence motions against the cabinet. 10. See Cox and McCubbins (1993,  2005) for the agenda cartel model of legislative organizations. 11. http://gclip1.grips.ac.jp/video/video/4707?t=3h11m11s&st=3h11m18s.

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   95 12. Before the parliamentary reform in 1999, senior bureaucrats as government committee members (Seifu Iin) played a significant role in answering questions. Ministers and junior ministers currently take on more of the responsibility for answering questions. Nonetheless, bureaucrats as government witnesses (Seifu Sankōnin) can answer questions as long as they are allowed to attend the committee at the beginning of the meeting. See Goplerud and Smith (forthcoming) for the changes in the government’s parliamentary responses over time. 13. http://gclip1.grips.ac.jp/video/video/5529?t=3h13m12s&st=3h14m25s. 14. See Krauss (1984) for a classic description. 15. Before the 1991 Diet Law revision, the ordinary session was convened in December, automatically wasting almost four weeks for the New Year’s break. 16. Instead of subcommittees, standing committees review the budget by subject area in the upper house. 17. Before the 1958 Diet Law revision, there were no limits on session extension. Except for an ordinary session, with a fixed term of 150 days, the Diet determines the session’s length by a concurrent resolution of the two houses. If the two houses fail to agree or the upper house fails to resolve, the lower house decision prevails. 18. The presiding officer can convene a plenary or committee meeting whenever it is deemed necessary. 19. See Döring (1995) for the scarcity of legislative time from a comparative perspective. 20. Due to the high proportion of government laws, many scholars argue that the Diet is a powerless legislative body, merely approving administrative organizations’ policies. See Barwald (1974, 1979) and Pempel (1974) for classic arguments. Johnson (1982) argues that Japan’s high economic growth is driven by bureaucracy. On the contrary, from the scholars viewing the relationship between politicians and bureaucrats as delegation, such a high proportion of government laws implies that politicians delegate authority to bureaucrats. See Ramseyer and Rosenbluth (1993) and Cowhey and McCubbins (1995). Samuels (1987) points out that the government instead had difficulty controlling industries, and Calder (1988) argues that conservative policy changes occurred along with a cycle of crisis and compensation. Given the ambiguity in the meanings of the number of bills and their enactment rates, it may be, at most, useful as simple aggregate indicators, but we need to be cautious in using them as a base for discussing who is influential and who is not. 21. In the Diet, the prime minister and committee chairs are not subject to the Diet Law’s cosponsor requirements. 22. Cow-­walking started in the Imperial Diet. In the immediate postwar period, the Liberal Party already used dilatory tactics to obstruct the Socialist-­led coalition government’s legislation on coal mining management, which resulted in the revision in consideration of the coal mine owners. In 1992, although the Socialist and Communist Parties delayed deliberations for a record-­ long thirteen hours, the Diet passed the Peacekeeping Operations bill. See Maeda (1992) and Baerwald (1974). 23. See Huber (1996) for the rationalization of restrictive legislative procedures. See Rasch and Tsebelis (2011) for governments’ role in legislative agenda setting from a comparative perspective. 24. A conference committee is composed of ten members from each house. In practice, the presiding officer designates conferees in proportion to the parliamentary groups supporting the bill. The lower house may turn down the upper house’s request for a conference committee.

96   Mikitaka Masuyama 25. See Tsebelis and Money (1997) and Tsebelis (2002) for bicameralism and veto power from a comparative perspective. 26. Before the 2018 revision, the total number of seats was 242. It increased to 245 in the 2019 election and will increase to 248 in the 2022 election. 27. Before introducing proportional representation in 1982, the seat allocation depended on plurality votes in the nationwide constituency. Until 2001, the proportional representation component used closed lists. 28. Although the total number of votes won in proportional representation differs slightly from that shown in Figure 5.1, the trends are similar. 29. See Reed et al. (2012), arguing that voters began to see elections as national contests between alternative parties and policies rather than between individual candidates. 30. See Pekkanen et al. (2012), analyzing the 2012 general election. 31. See Fukumoto (2007) and Takenaka (2010) for prominent such claims. 32. See Mochizuki (1982), Iwai (1988), and Fukumoto (2000). Also, see Blondel et al. (1970) for the concept of parliamentary viscosity. 33. See Hammond and Miller (1987) for the spatial model that the separation of powers system provides stability. 34. See Masuyama (2000) for an analysis of the Diet rules and procedures from a comparative perspective. 35. Using a spatial theory of agenda power, Cox and McCubbins (2005) distinguish between the majority block zone and the minority roll zone. A majority most effectively exercises power by eliminating the policy changes that move away from the majority’s ideal point. See Cox, Masuyama, and McCubbins (2000), analyzing negative agenda power in the Diet. Masuyama (2003) focuses on the time required for legislation and conceptualizes the four legislative duration types. Specifically, the legislative duration becomes observable in the parliament, and the shorter the duration, the more time-­efficient legislation becomes. Likewise, the longer the duration, the less efficient legislation becomes, and in some cases legislation reaches the session end without voting. An unobservable duration includes the issue that fails to become a legislative proposal before parliament. The most efficient structural power is the case that stifles issues from being considered. See Kawato (2005) for the idea of parliamentary supremacy in the Diet, and Iio (2007) for the government and ruling party dual system. 36. See Reed (1990) and Cox (1997) for the effects of the multiple-­member district system. 37. See Sato and Matsuzaki (1986) and Kitaoka (1995) for the LDP under the previous lower house electoral system. 38. See Krauss and Pekkanen (2010) for the recent changes in the LDP. See Pekkanen et al. (2006) and Ono (2015) for details on the mixed electoral system and parliamentary behavior. 39. See Krauss and Nyblade (2005) and Machidori (2012) for the prime minister’s leadership changes. 40. See Pempel (1990) for one-­party dominance from a comparative perspective. See also Putnam (1993) and Pharr and Putnam (2000). 41. See Scheiner (2010) for opposition dysfunction. As political science shifted from pluralism to new-­institutionalism, although parliamentary rules and procedures became central research subjects, few studies appropriately examine the Diet and its institutional structure. A half-­century-­old classic, Schattschneider (1960) on structural power bias remains suggestive.

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   97

References Bäck, Hanna, and Marc Debus. 2016. Political Parties, Parliaments and Legislative Speechmaking. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Baerwald, Hans. 1974. Japan’s Parliament: An Introduction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Baerwald, Hans. 1979. “Committees in the Japanese Diet.” in Committees in Legislatures: A Comparative Analysis, edited by John Lees and Malcolm Shaw, 327–360. Durham, NC: Duke University Press. Blondel, Jean, et al. 1970. “Legislative Behavior: Some Steps toward a Cross-National Measurement.” Government and Opposition 5: 67–85. Calder, Kent. 1988. Crisis and Compensation: Public Policy and Political Stability in Japan, 1949–1986. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Cowhey, Peter, and Mathew McCubbins. 1995. Structure and Policy in Japan and the United States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Cox, Gary. 1997. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World’s Electoral Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Cox, Gary, Mikitaka Masuyama, and Mathew McCubbins. 2000. “Agenda Power in the Japanese House of Representatives.” Japanese Journal of Political Science 1, no. 1: 1–21. Cox, Gary, and Mathew McCubbins. 1993. Legislative Leviathan: Party Government in the House. Berkeley: University of California Press. Cox, Gary, and Mathew McCubbins. 2005. Setting the Agenda: Responsible Party Government in the U.S. House of Representatives. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Cox, Gary, and Mathew McCubbins. 2011. “Managing Plenary Time in Democratic Legislatures: The  U.S.  Congress in Comparative Context.” in Oxford Handbook of the American Congress, edited by George Edwards III, Frances Lee, and Eric Schickler, 451–472. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Curini, Luigi, Airo Hino, and Atsushi Osaka. 2020. “The Intensity of Government-Opposition Divide as Measured through Legislative Speeches and What We Can Learn from It: Analyses of Japanese Parliamentary Debates, 1953–2013.” Government and Opposition 55, no. 2: 184–201. Döring, Herbert. 1995. “Time as a Scarce Resource: Government Control of the Agenda.” In Parliaments and Majority Rule in Western Europe, edited by Herbert Döring, 223–246. New York: St. Martin’s Press. Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2000. Nihon no Kokkai Seiji. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppankai. Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2007. Rippo no Seido to Katei. Tokyo: Bokutakusha. Goplerud, Max, and Daniel Smith. forthcoming. “Who Answers for the Government? Bureaucrats, Ministers, and Responsible Parties.” American Journal of Political Science. Hammond, Thomas, and Gary Miller. 1987. “The Core of the Constitution.” American Political Science Review 81: 1155–1174. Huber, John. 1996. Rationalizing Parliament: Legislative Institutions and Party Politics in France. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Iio, Jun. 2007. Nihon no Tochi Kozo. Tokyo: Chuo Koron Shinsha. Iwai, Tomoaki. 1988. Rippo Katei. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppankai. Johnson, Chalmers. 1982. MITI and the Japanese Economic Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925–1975. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Kawato, Sadafumi. 2005. Nihon no Kokkai Seido to Seito Seiji. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppankai.

98   Mikitaka Masuyama Kitaoka, Shinichi. 1995. Jiminto. Tokyo: Yomiuri Shimbunsha. Krauss, Ellis. 1984. “Conflict in the Diet: Toward Conflict Management in Parliamentary Politics.” In Conflict in Japan, edited by Ellis Krauss, Thomas Rohlen, and Patricia Steinhoff, 243–293. Honolulu: University of Hawai‘i Press. Krauss, Ellis, and Benjamin Nyblade. 2005. “‘Presidentialization’ in Japan? The Prime Minister, Media and Elections in Japan.” British Journal of Political Science 35, no. 2: 357–368. Krauss, Ellis, and Robert Pekkanen. 2010. The Rise and Fall of Japan’s LDP: Political Party Organizations as Historical Institutions. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Machidori, Satoshi. 2012. Shusho Seiji no Seido Bunseki. Tokyo: Chikura Shobo. Maeda, Hideaki. 1992. “Kokkai Shingi to Giji Bogai.” Gikai Seiji Kenkyu 23: 1–15. Masuyama, Mikitaka. 2000. “Is the Japanese Diet Consensual?” Journal of Legislative Studies 6, no. 4: 9–28. Masuyama, Mikitaka. 2003. Nihon Seiji to Gikai Seido. Tokyo: Bokutakusha. Masuyama, Mikitaka. 2009. “Naikaku Fushin’nin no Seijigaku.” In Nempo Seijigaku 2009-I: Minshu Seiji to Seiji Seido, edited by the Japanese Association of Political Science, 79–109. Tokyo: Bokutakusha. Matsuda, Kenjiro. 2008. Kokkai Kaigiroku wo Tsukatta Nihongo Kenkyu. Tokyo: Hitsuji Shobo. Matsuda, Kenjiro. 2016. “Taisho-Showa Senzenki no SP ban Enzetsu Recodo niokeru ‘Baai’ no Yomi nitsuite.” Kokuritsu Kokugo Kenkyusho Ronso 11: 63–81. Mochizuki, Mike. 1982. “Managing and Influencing the Japanese Legislative Process: The Role of the Parties and the National Diet.” PhD diss., Harvard University. Ono, Yoshikuni. 2015. Personal Attributes of Legislators and Parliamentary Behavior: An Analysis of Parliamentary Activities among Japanese Legislators. Japanese Journal of Political Science 16, no. 1: 68–95. Pekkanen, Robert, Benjamin Nyblade, and Ellis Krauss, 2006. “Electoral Incentives in MixedMember Systems: Party, Posts, and Zombie Politicians in Japan.” American Political Science Review 100, no. 2: 183–193. Pekkanen, Robert, Steven Reed, and Ethan Scheiner, 2012. Japan Decides 2012: The Japanese General Election. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Pempel, T.  J. 1974. “The Bureaucratization of Policymaking in Postwar Japan.” American Journal of Political Science 18: 647–664. Pempel, T. J. 1990. Uncommon Democracies: The One Party Dominant Regimes. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Pharr, Susan, and Robert Putnam, 2000. Disaffected Democracies: What’s Troubling the Trilateral Countries? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Polsby, Nelson. 1975. “Legislatures.” in Handbook of Political Science. Vol. 5, Governmental Institutions and Process, edited by F.  Greenstein and N.  Polsby, 257–319. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. Powell, Bingham. 2000. Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Proksch, Sven-Oliver, and Jonathan Slapin. 2014. The Politics of Parliamentary Debate. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Putnam, Robert. 1993. Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Ramseyer, Mark, and Frances Rosenbluth. 1993. Japan’s Political Marketplace. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

The Japanese Diet: Parliamentary Groups and Lawmaking   99 Rasch, Bjorn, and George Tsebelis. 2011. The Role of Governments in Legislative Agenda Setting. New York: Routledge. Reed, Steven. 1990. “Structure and Behaviour: Extending Duverger’s Law to the Japanese Case.” British Journal of Political Science 20, no. 3: 335–356. Reed, Steven, Ethan Scheiner, and Michael Thies. 2012. “The End of LDP Dominance and the Rise of Party-Oriented Politics in Japan.” Journal of Japanese Studies 38, no. 2: 353–376. Samuels, Richard. 1987. The Business of the Japanese State: Energy Markets in Comparative and Historical Perspective. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Sato, Seizaburo, and Tetsuhisa Matsuzaki. 1986. Jiminto Seiken. Tokyo: Chuo Koronsha. Schattschneider, Elmer. 1960. The Semi-Sovereign People: A Realist’s View of Democracy in America. New York: Holt, Rinehart, & Winston. Scheiner, Ethan. 2010. Democracy without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in a OneParty Dominant State. New York: Cambridge University Press. Takenaka, Harukata. 2010. Sangiin toha Nanika. Tokyo: Chuo Koron Shinsha. Tsebelis, George. 2002. Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Tsebelis, George, and Jeannette Money. 1997. Bicameralism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

chapter 6

The R ise a n d Fa l l of  the Ja pa n e se Bu r eaucr acy Steven K. Vogel

Chalmers Johnson (1982) famously declared that Japan’s politicians reigned while the bureaucrats ruled. That is, politicians played politics, dishing out favors and fawning attention on favored constituents, while the bureaucrats actually ran the country. The top civil servants enjoyed elite education, high prestige, a strong organizational ethos, and considerable autonomy from short-­term political pressures. Within this environment, Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) officials devised an industrial policy that helped to produce the postwar economic miracle.1 In contrast, Gerald Curtis (1988) stressed how the leaders of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) flexibly adapted policies to preserve their long-­term rule. Richard Samuels (1987) and Daniel Okimoto (1989) challenged Johnson’s depiction of the relationship between MITI and industry, contending that the bureaucracy did not lead industry so much as it negotiated with industry. Muramatsu and Krauss (1987) articulated a middle position, depicting the Japanese political system as one of “patterned pluralism.” By this they meant that Japan had a strong state with its own goals, institutionalized accommodation between elites, and some pluralistic elements. This position is descriptively accurate yet analytically misleading, because defining the Japanese political system as “pluralist” obscures the difference between Japan’s distinctive form of corporatism and a more pluralistic political system like that of the United States (Dahl 1968). Pempel and Tsunekawa (1979) described the postwar regime as one of “corporatism without labor,” meaning that business was systematically incorporated into the heart of the policy process but labor was not. Masahiko Aoki (1988) offered a useful synthesis, depicting the system as one of “bureaupluralism” in which government ministries played a dualistic role of promoting the public interest and mediating private interests. Kent Calder (1988) provided an important corrective to Johnson by stressing that the nature of the relationship between politicians and bureaucrats varied substantially

102   Steven K. Vogel across ministries and their respective policy jurisdictions. Johnson’s model of bureaucratic dominance was most accurate with respect to MITI and the Ministry of Finance and their core turf of industrial and financial policy. The model was less applicable to those areas where LDP politicians sought to target resources to their constituents. In construction, for example, LDP politicians enlisted Ministry of Construction and local government officials to carry out specific public works projects (Woodall  1996). And in agriculture, they collaborated with Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) officials to provide farmers with trade protection, price supports, and subsidies for infrastructure (George Mulgan 2006). Mark Ramseyer and Frances Rosenbluth (1993) turned Johnson’s thesis on its head with a model that positioned politicians as “principals” and bureaucrats as their “agents.” They suggested that politicians delegated policy formation and implementation to bureaucrats, but retained powerful levers to ensure that the bureaucrats served the politicians’ interests. Yet Ramseyer and Rosenbluth missed the most distinctive ­ ­features of Japan’s postwar system by focusing on the mechanisms by which politicians controlled bureaucrats while ignoring the mechanisms by which bureaucrats manipulated politicians. Junko Kato (1994) offered a rational choice model that better captures the dynamics of Japanese politics by examining this two-­way interaction.

The Postwar Model Johnson’s characterization of bureaucratic autonomy was too simplistic in that it did not flesh out how the bureaucracy interacts with politicians and interest groups. Japanese ministry officials did not simply assert their policy preferences by fiat. Instead, they had to orchestrate elaborate compromises among interest groups, and they had to engage in complex negotiations with politicians. Nonetheless, those who focus on politicians’ control over the bureaucracy or the pluralist elements of Japanese politics miss three distinctive features of the postwar model. First, the central ministry officials held their own policy preferences, independent of societal interests, and they strived to insert those preferences into laws, regulations, and their implementation. Second, these officials actively manipulated politicians to achieve their goals by deploying their persuasive powers and leveraging their expertise, mediating among politicians, or even favoring certain politicians over others. And third, they played an unusually political role in balancing interests within the scope of their jurisdiction. These distinctive features of the policy process left a distinct imprint on the substance and quality of policy outcomes. While none of these features were entirely unique to Japan, they were more pronounced and pervasive than in other advanced democracies. The power and relative autonomy of the postwar bureaucracy were rooted both in Japanese history and in the specific mechanisms of recruitment, rotation, and promotion in the postwar period. The bureaucracy emerged as a major power center in

The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Bureaucracy   103 the Meiji era (1868–1912) (Shimizu 2013). Bureaucratic autonomy was reinforced during the period of military mobilization and war in the 1930s and 1940s, and further institutionalized in the early postwar years. Many political leaders were purged during the Occupation (1945–1952), while most bureaucrats were not, and this enabled the ­bureaucracy to entrench its power. The bureaucrats developed a system of promotion in the postwar period that helped to insulate them from political interference (Soga 2016). The top-­level “career” (kyaria) bureaucrats were recruited from the key departments, such as Law and Economics, at the leading universities, especially Tokyo University. They then remained affiliated within the ministry until retirement in their mid- or late fifties. They would rotate positions frequently, about once every two years, sometimes including assignments to regional bureaus within Japan, to other ministries or agencies, or to diplomatic posts abroad. They would move up the ranks fairly uniformly until their early forties, at which point they would begin to compete for promotion to the top spots (Inatsugu  2011). Politicians had little influence on these promotions. The bureaucrats successfully fended off reforms in the early postwar years that could have made them more vulnerable to control by politicians (Mishima 2018). The Japanese bureaucracy was not particularly large in comparative terms.2 The ministries generally had two politicians each in leadership positions, the minister and the parliamentary vice minister, and these roles rotated frequently. The ministry officials would brief the incoming ministers extensively and try to persuade them to support their own perspectives on the major issues under their jurisdiction. The relative autonomy of the bureaucracy was rooted in Japan’s political structure.3 Most importantly, ministries had clear jurisdictional authority within their given domain. They might engage in turf battles over issues that crossed jurisdictional boundaries, but they enjoyed relative freedom from interference in those areas that did not. They generally did not share power with independent regulatory agencies or the courts, so their decisions were not subject to effective review. Politicians might intervene in ministry deliberations or review decisions before passing legislation, but in practice they allowed the ministries wide discretion to formulate policy in many sectors. Thus, jurisdiction over a given issue area rarely shifted to another ministry or to another branch of government. This meant that a ministry could make promises and threats to industry credibly, for the ministry had the authority to make good on its promises and to carry out the threats. Likewise, the ministry could serve as an effective broker between industry actors because it had the authority to enforce these deals over time. In contrast, the decision-­making arena shifted frequently in the United States, so government agencies had to anticipate possible appeals to the courts or to Congress and try to formulate decisions that would not be questioned (Kagan 2003). In addition, Japanese ministries played a substantial role in both the formulation and the implementation of legislation. By combining these two functions, bureaucrats were able to sculpt legislation at the formulation stage to increase their discretion at the implementation stage. Discretion enabled them to make policy at the implementation stage, when they were less vulnerable to political intervention. Moreover, ministries

104   Steven K. Vogel translated this discretion into power. Ministry officials felt that discretion enabled them to respond flexibly as situations evolved, but they also sought it because it gave them leverage over industry by enabling them to discriminate between individual firms. The system differed markedly from that in the United States, where government agencies were more tightly bound by the letter of the law (Upham 1987). Ministry officials were well aware that they relied on politicians to pass legislation, so they would go to great lengths to sell their agenda to political leaders. They would brief ministers and other powerful politicians about their policy proposals at an early stage. They would leverage their expertise to narrow the policy options, convincing the politicians that certain measures were viable while others were not. They would inundate the politicians with information, and wait out politicians who disagreed with them, knowing that they would be rotated into new positions. Or they would play off one politician against another. They would even intervene in politics itself, supporting one politician or undermining another. Scholars and practitioners sometimes described the interaction between politicians, bureaucrats, and industry (or interest groups more broadly) in terms of jankenpon (rock, paper, and scissors). This not only implied that there were three distinct power centers in the political system, but it depicted a particular pattern of interaction whereby politicians would defeat bureaucrats, bureaucrats would defeat industry, and industry would defeat politicians in a head-­to-­head interaction (Iio 2008, 46). The jankenpon dynamics shaped the patterns of personal interaction between the three groups. For example, bureaucrats tended to be highly deferential to politicians in person. They would not disagree openly, but rather point to technical problems with a politicians’ proposal or resort to more indirect forms of subterfuge. Yet bureaucrats could be quite arrogant in their interactions with industry, forcing business people to wait in ministry hallways for long periods of time or dismissing their concerns rather gruffly. The jankenpon dynamic also affected the manner in which bureaucrats manipulated politicians. They would sometimes appeal to industry to lobby politicians—deploying their leverage over industry in combination with industry’s leverage over politicians. This would be more advantageous than confronting politicians directly, for they would be at disadvantage in a direct confrontation. A ministry official once confided to me that he liked to invite industry allies to meetings with politicians, because business executives could yell at politicians—but he could not. In the interest of brevity, one rather poignant example will have to suffice. As I embarked on my dissertation research on Japan’s telecommunications reforms in 1990, I made a first stop at the Japan Business Federation (keizai dantai rengōkai, or Keidanren for short). A Keidanren official kindly provided me with a compilation of Keidanren’s position papers, and I could readily see the similarity between Keidanren’s positions and the reform legislation that eventually passed. So this initially appeared to be a classic case of interest group politics. But my understanding of the political dynamics flipped when I interviewed a Ministry of Post and Telecommunications (MPT) official about the same set of reforms. The official waxed sentimentally about the period, which was known as that of the “Telecom Wars” between MPT and MITI over jurisdiction over the

The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Bureaucracy   105 emerging information technology sector. MPT held jurisdiction over communications while MITI controlled computers. MPT officials wanted to make sure to preserve some regulatory control over value-­added networks (VANs), because that would ensure that they could oversee the new sector (Johnson 1989; Muramatsu 1988). MITI officials preferred to eliminate formal regulations, because that would undermine MPT control and cede de facto control to MITI. MPT won the war. The MPT official grinned subtly as he told the story, noting that he had to get a second subway pass at the time, one from his office in Kasumigaseki to Keidanren headquarters in Ōtemachi in addition to the one from home to the office. “Why was that?,” I inquired innocently. “Because I had to explain to Keidanren what they should ask the politicians to do,” he replied. In subsequent research, I discovered that young MPT officials had formed a secret study group a decade earlier to plot how to recover their rightful power over the telecom sector, then dominated by the public monopoly, NTT, which largely regulated itself. They recognized that allowing competition in telecommunications would give them the authority to regulate the industry and thereby to assert their authority over NTT. They produced their own blueprint for reform, which resembled the actual reforms implemented in the early 1980s even more than those of Keidanren, which followed quite a few years later. So this was not a case of pluralist politics after all, but rather one of crafty ministry officials devising a reform to advance their own interests and preferences, then persuading Keidanren to lobby politicians to achieve their goals, and utterly outwitting the politicians in the process (Vogel 1996, 137–166). Of course, industry leaders could play jankenpon as well, and they would sometimes appeal to politicians to corral the bureaucrats when they did not get what they wanted. But industry would only do so under relatively restrictive conditions. Industry would itself have to be unified, because an appeal by one group could easily be neutralized by a counter-­appeal by another group. Likewise, industry executives would have to be confident that the settlement by politicians would be sufficiently superior to justify the cost and the effort plus the risk of bureaucratic retaliation down the line. In any case, my point is not that the bureaucrats always won these battles—they did not. But Japanese government officials were unusual in a comparative context in the degree to which they developed independent policy preferences and deployed elaborate strategies to enact them. They had greater insulation from politicians than their counterparts in the United States, a more proactive attitude toward asserting these preferences, greater confidence in their superior understanding of policy issues, and a wider arsenal of tools to allow them to prevail in many cases.4 Ministry officials orchestrated political compromises according to a process of “bureaucratic-­led bargaining” (Vogel  1994).5 The process was characteristically slow because ministry officials had to arrange deals that would satisfy industry interests without unduly compromising their own goals. They controlled the process of policy change to ensure that changes would occur in an orderly and gradual fashion. Thus, they prevented the kind of haphazard changes that would occur if they were to leave things up to politicians. Furthermore, bureaucrats were able to translate their control over the policy process into influence over policy content. The specifics varied from one ministry

106   Steven K. Vogel to the other, but, in general, ministry officials’ priorities included the promotion of the  sectors under their jurisdiction as a whole (rather than favoring specific firms), maintaining market stability, protecting public safety, and preserving or enhancing the power of the ministry itself—though not always in that order. The bargaining process typically centered on the policy councils (shingikai) organized by the ministries (Schwartz 1998). These policy councils varied considerably in form and content, but ministry officials generally controlled the membership and the agenda, and guided the substantive proposals that emerged from deliberations. The formal meetings were accompanied by parallel informal deliberations among ministry officials and key interest groups. The policy councils typically featured interest groups according to a balance dictated by the core constituencies of the ministry. So MITI policy councils were dominated by manufacturing industries, with perhaps one token representative from finance, while Ministry of Finance policy councils were dominated by the financial sector with perhaps a token representative from manufacturing. The Ministry of Finance deployed two parallel policy councils, the Banking Bureau’s Financial System Reform Council (dominated by commercial banks) and the Securities Bureau’s Securities and Exchange Council (dominated by the securities houses), to orchestrate the elaborate compromises that would allow banks and securities firms to enter each other’s lines of business in the 1990s. While the officials had to make substantial concessions to appease the various subsectors of the financial industry, they ultimately managed to insert their own preferences in the process (Vogel 1994). The ministry officials’ approach to the incorporation of interests tended to differentiate policy insiders, such as industry groups, from outsiders, such as political activists or ethnic minorities. Even among civic groups, they cultivated some groups as allies, providing them with preferential access to resources and inclusion in the policy process in exchange for passive compliance or active collaboration in policy implementation. Meanwhile, they excluded more contentious groups and deployed regulatory levers to impede their growth (Pekkanen 2006). Among consumer groups, for example, the government mobilized housewives’ associations to increase savings and increase product quality, while shunning and containing other groups that protested government policies and/or allied with the opposition parties (Garon 1997).

The Slow Decline of Bureaucratic Power The bureaucracy enjoyed its heyday of power from the 1950s through the early 1970s. In the 1970s, however, economic growth slowed and competition for resources increased. Jun Iio (2007) argues that the system of bureaucratic dominance was only viable so long as economic growth was strong and fiscal constraints were manageable. Seizaburō Sato and Tetsuhisa Matsuzaki (1986) stress that politicians began to contest Ministry of

The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Bureaucracy   107 Finance budgetary ceilings in the 1970s. And Takashi Inoguchi and Tomoaki Iwai (1987) document how LDP “tribes” of policy specialists, the famed zoku, emerged during this period to assert greater control over policy formulation in specific issue-­areas. The bureaucracy confronted even greater challenges in the 1990s, as the economy transitioned from the hyper-­expansion of the “bubble” years in the late 1980s to a market crash and prolonged stagnation in the 1990s. The bureaucracy’s prestige took a major hit, as the wise mandarins who had been credited with creating the economic miracle were now blamed for its demise. The Ministry of Finance in particular came under harsh attack for its mismanagement of the financial crisis and its inability to orchestrate a timely resolution (Amyx  2004). Meanwhile, the elite ministries found themselves enmeshed in several corruption scandals that further tarnished their image (Iio 2007). The LDP abruptly lost power in 1993 because it split over the issue of political reform. Ichirō Ozawa, who had been party secretary general from 1989 to 1991, led the group that left the party, charging that it was moving too slowly on political reform. Ozawa (1993) favored electoral system reform designed to shift Japan from a multiparty system to a more majoritarian two-­party system, plus administrative reforms, to increase politicians’ control over the bureaucracy. Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa of the Japan New Party presided over an unwieldy coalition government from August 1993 through April 1994. Hosokawa did not have a clear substantive policy platform other than deregulation and decentralization, both of which aimed at diminishing the power of the central government ministries. But the Hosokawa government passed a major political reform bill in January 1994, which transformed the electoral system along the lines advocated by Ozawa. Japan adopted a mixed electoral system for the lower house, combining 300 first-­past-­the-­post seats with 200 proportional representation seats. This replaced the old single nontransferable vote system with 130 multi-­member districts and 511 total seats. The advocates of the electoral reform predicted that the logic of the single-­member districts would move Japan toward a two-­party system, produce more policy-­oriented competition, and give politicians greater incentives to assert their authority over bureaucrats (Christensen 1996). The LDP returned to power in 1994 by forming a coalition with its long-­time rival, the Japan Socialist Party (JSP, renamed the Social Democratic Party of Japan in 1996), and ceding the premiership to JSP leader Tomiichi Murayama. LDP politicians felt betrayed by the civil servants, whom they had viewed as their allies, but had readily switched sides to collaborate with the Hosokawa administration. This made them more suspicious of bureaucrats and more inclined to consider measures to contain bureaucratic power. The LDP has ruled in various coalition governments ever since, with the exception of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) administrations of 2009–2012. Japanese politics has fundamentally changed since the 1990s, and not only because of the new electoral system. The political system transformed from one-­party rule to a coalition government, and the opposition parties transitioned from the old leftist parties of the JSP and the Japan Communist Party to more moderate and broader tent parties such as the New Frontier Party (NFP) and the DPJ. The new opposition parties presented a more viable challenge to the LDP than the traditional opposition parties, so the two sides competed

108   Steven K. Vogel more vigorously to propose economic, political, and administrative reforms. And sometimes this took the form of bashing a convenient scapegoat, the bureaucrats, and vowing to reduce their power and their privileges. Prime Minister Ryūtarō Hashimoto (1996–1998) launched a major administrative reform council and began implementing reforms in 1998, strengthening the role of the prime minister and the cabinet and creating a Cabinet Office that combined the Prime Minister’s Office with the Economic Planning Agency (Horie 2018, 36–41). The number of officials in the Cabinet Secretariat increased from 515 in 2001 to 1,188 in 2019 (Cabinet Secretariat 2019; Cabinet Secretariat, Cabinet Bureau of Personnel Affairs 2019). The reform included a reorganization and consolidation of the ministries, a reform of the civil service system, and a review of regulations and subsidies to reduce “intervention” in the economy. The administrative reorganization was implemented in January 2001, reducing the number of cabinet-­level ministries and agencies from 22 to 13. The reform also increased the number of politicians in the ministries, replacing the parliamentary vice-­minister position (one per ministry or agency) with a total of 26 deputy ministers (fukudaijin) and 27 parliamentary secretaries (seimukan). The cabinet was now able to propose new policies and the Cabinet Secretariat could coordinate major policies, thereby seizing critical powers from the ministries (see the chapter by Shinoda in this volume). The reforms also created a new Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP), which took over some of the budgeting powers from the Ministry of Finance. Prime Minister Junichirō Koizumi (2001–2006) took advantage of these new powers to implement his program of “structural reform.” Koizumi designed these reforms as a political strategy as much as an economic strategy. The LDP had come under severe criticism for systemic corruption and clientelism, so Koizumi sought to save the party by attacking its clientelistic structures, such as the postal savings system and the special public corporations that were critical in funneling citizens’ savings into public works projects (Park  2011). He also strived to restructure the financial sector and reduce government control over the economy. Koizumi deployed the CEFP to control the policy process and to push through these reforms. Koizumi’s successors, Shinzō Abe (2006–2007), Yasuo Fukuda (2007–2008), and Tarō Asō (2008–2009), were less successful in wielding these new powers. Abe included civil service reform designed to strengthen political control over the bureaucracy in an ambitious plan to “depart” from the postwar regime (datsu sengo). The Diet passed an initial reform of the National Public Service Law (Kokka kōmuin hō) to curtail the practice of amakudari (descent from heaven), whereby the ministries would arrange post-­retirement positions in industry for their officials. The reform prohibited the ministries from negotiating directly with amakudari employers, requiring them to go through a new center at the Cabinet Office. Meanwhile, Abe organized a nongovernmental advisory panel on civil service reform in the summer of 2007. Abe resigned shortly after that, but the Fukuda administration followed up and in 2008 passed the Basic Law for Reform of the Civil Service System, which required the government to develop a plan to implement the council’s recommendations.

The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Bureaucracy   109 The DPJ came to power in 2009 on a platform of changing politics by ousting the long-­ruling LDP. The party declared that it would finally seize power from the bureaucrats. In some cases, the incoming ministers literally locked out the top bureaucrats from policy deliberations. Yet ultimately this strategy backfired as the government’s war on the bureaucracy undermined its ability to formulate and implement coherent policies, especially in the all-­important realm of economic reform. The DPJ administrations gained a reputation for incompetence, as they failed to develop a coherent economic strategy; floundered in international diplomacy, especially US-­Japan relations; and took blame (fairly or not) for policy failures in responding to the March 2011 triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown (Kushida 2013). When Abe resigned in 2007, most observers thought that marked the end of his political career. But loyal party colleagues, mostly on the party’s nationalist right wing, continued to support him as a viable national leader, and they helped bring him back to power in 2012. The LDP party president serves as the party’s candidate for prime ­minister, and hence ordinarily becomes prime minister when the party is in power. The party president is elected according to a formula, which has varied over time, that combines the votes of LDP Diet members plus party members at large. During much of the postwar period, the party president was effectively selected by factional negotiations, since the faction bosses could deliver the votes of their members. But the actual voting became more important as the factions declined in power. Koizumi triumphed in 2001 on the strength of his support among members at large, whereas Abe prevailed in 2012 due to strong support from parliamentarians. Abe and his top advisors, most notably Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, sought to reinstate a working partnership with the bureaucrats, but they also wanted to increase their control over the bureaucracy. The DPJ had failed three times to pass the civil service reforms initiated under Abe’s first administration, but the second Abe administration prevailed in 2014. The reform bill created a new Cabinet Bureau of Personnel Affairs (Naikaku jinjikyoku) that would allow the prime minister and the cabinet to exercise greater control over the appointments of top bureaucrats. It also created a new system for selecting senior civil servants whereby the chief cabinet secretary and staff would conduct an independent screening and propose a list of candidates. Ministers would have to select from this list, obtaining advance consent from the prime minister and the chief cabinet secretary. The government established a new career development program designed to shift from seniority-­based to performance-­based promotion. The bill strengthened political leadership at the ministries by allowing ministers to add one more political appointee with the title of “special adviser” (hosakan). The reformers originally sought to authorize ministers to hire a team of nonbureaucratic staffers, but they withdrew that proposal in the face of resistance from the bureaucrats (Mishima 2017, 1108–1110). Abe substantially strengthened the Prime Minister’s Office and the Cabinet Office, deploying special “headquarters” (honbu) and “offices” (shitsu) to coordinate major policy initiatives (Takenaka 2019, 857–866; see the chapter by George Mulgan in this volume).

110   Steven K. Vogel This transferred some of the policy initiative from individual ministries to these units. And it created a new class of elite bureaucrats, the cabinet bureaucrats, who played an increasingly critical role in mediating between the political leadership and the individual ministries (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2019b). But the reforms did not eliminate ministerial power or rivalry among the ministries. After all, many of Abe’s top advisors in the Prime Minister’s Office and the Cabinet Office came from the ministries. So the ministry officials exercised their influence through their representation in these units, interaction with other officials in the various offices and headquarters, and coordination of the advisory councils. METI had a particularly advantageous position, with officials in key top spots and strong representation throughout (Mainichi Shimbun 2018; Shimizu 2016). In fact, METI official Takaya Imai served continuously in the key position of executive secretary (hishokan) to the prime minister after 2012. “METI has mastered this new environment,” conceded one official from another ministry. “Now they take their ideas straight to the Cabinet Office, and they coordinate there” (Vogel 2018, 279).6 In fact, one could argue that a central pillar of Abe’s program—Abenomics—emanated from the bureaucracy and not from Abe himself. A group of ministry officials, including Imai, continued to brief Abe after he resigned in 2008. Some even joined him for retreats, including a hiking excursion on Mount Takao (Japan Business Press, 2019). And these briefings eventually formed the core content of the Abenomics reforms years later. In this sense, Abe served as an agent of the bureaucrats, while the bureaucrats also served as his agents. Jun Iio (2019) compares the policy processes under the Abe administration to the traditional postwar model, and concludes that the Abe regime enjoyed a stronger internal policy consensus, yet also suffered from a diminished capacity to evaluate options and implement decisions. Ministry officials lost some of their capacity to coordinate policy deliberations with politicians and interest groups, and the Cabinet Office bureaucrats did not sufficiently fill the gap. The Abe administration greatly increased its ability to control top civil service appointments, yet it exercised this power with some discretion. It left routine appointments under the bureaucracy’s control while intervening in select cases. These interventions nonetheless affected the bureaucrats’ behavior, because the bureaucrats were aware that political leaders could influence their opportunities for advancement. In 2018 and 2019, the Abe administration reportedly intervened in the appointment of the top civil servant at the Ministry of Finance, the administrative vice-­minister (jimujikan), in the wake of a scandal in which ministry officials deleted references to the prime minister’s wife, Akie, when selling a government-­owned plot of land at a massive discount to Moritomo Gakuen, an ultranationalist school linked to Mrs. Abe (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2019a). The scandal was notable in that the ministry officials appeared to have anticipated what political leaders wanted them to do (a practice popularly referred to as sontaku, or preemptive action to satisfy superiors), rather than complying with direct orders. The contrast between the Koizumi administration and Abe’s second administration, on the one hand, and Abe’s first administration and the Fukuda and Aso administrations, on the other, demonstrates how much the impact of administration reforms hinges on the particular leaders in power. Koizumi was able to leverage the power of

The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Bureaucracy   111 the CEFP to enact substantial reforms, especially financial reforms. And the second Abe ­administration went even further to enhance its powers and to deploy them to shift policy initiatives from the individual ministries to the prime minister and the cabinet. Likewise, the contrast between these two powerful prime ministers and the DPJ administrations illustrates how the relationship of power between political leaders and the bureaucracy is symbiotic, not zero-­sum. That is, the DPJ not only undermined bureaucratic authority, but also undercut its own capacity to formulate and enact policies. The second Abe administration restored a more collaborative relationship whereby it enhanced its ability to enact reforms through a combination of reinstating bureaucratic power and strengthening its own ability to coordinate ministries and interest groups.

Conclusion The relative decline in the power and legitimacy of the bureaucracy arguably represents the single most important development in Japanese politics over the past thirty years. Japanese bureaucratic power in the postwar era certainly had its drawbacks. It fostered abuses of power, collusion with industry, and the exclusion of minority interests. Ministry officials sometimes preserved their own power at the expense of the broader public interest. Or they collaborated with industries under their jurisdiction rather than including a broader range of views in the policy process. Or they excluded groups they viewed as conflictual or otherwise not worthy of their attention. Yet the postwar system nonetheless achieved a remarkable combination of democratic politics with bureaucratic power. Japan had a democratic constitution with strong protections for citizen’s rights, the rule of law, and relatively clean elections (Pempel 1989). Elected officials had the ability to oversee the bureaucracy, even if they delegated policy formation and implementation to the bureaucracy on important issues. And the bureaucracy contributed to Japanese democracy in the sense that it effectively carried out policies favored by citizens and their elected representatives. In fact, the relative autonomy and administrative capacity of the bureaucracy was critical to Japan’s achievements during this period, from economic growth to social stability and international peace. Accordingly, the decline in bureaucratic capacity has imposed very real costs. In particular, it has compromised the quality of policy formulation and the effectiveness of policy implementation. The public image of bureaucrats has dropped considerably since its heyday. The share of people who reported that they trust bureaucrats declined from 44 percent in 1994 to 22 percent in 2002, while the share who stated that they do not trust bureaucrats rose from 51 percent to 74 percent (Tsukishima  2006, 286). Meanwhile, many university graduates no longer view the civil service as an attractive career. The number of applicants for civil servant positions dropped from a high of 330,686 in 1995 to 130,090 in 2018, while applicants for the Level 1 (“career”) positions declined from 41,433 to 22,559 (National Personnel Authority  2019b). And the share of University of Tokyo

112   Steven K. Vogel graduates among those passing the civil servant exam declined from 31.9 percent in 2000 to 17.0 percent in 2019 (Shakai jitsujō deeta zuroku 2019). Some bureaucrats have lost confidence in their ability to find policy solutions to the nation’s problems and to push them through the political process. They have less capacity to coordinate industry interests, and to carry out their policy visions. Muramatsu (2010) finds that bureaucrats themselves report that their influence has diminished, and they have become less active in engaging politicians. Izuru Makihara (2018) claims that the administrative reforms of the two Abe administrations and the DPJ administrations undermined the bureaucracy’s ability to make long-­term plans in a smooth and efficient manner. The reforms were counterproductive in that they disrupted the policy process and created new administrative burdens of their own. Hideaki Tanaka (2019) contends that the Abe administration undermined policy quality with its top-­down process of issuing proposals first rather than exploring options more systematically in the light of evidence. “In our internal surveys,” reports one METI official, “we find that officials in their 40s and up are satisfied but those in their late twenties and early thirties are more frustrated. Some of them feel that they do not have influence in decision-­making and they are just carrying out orders. They cannot take their own ideas from the bottom and get them to the top. So we are going to have to think hard about how to motivate government officials.”7 Despite the Japanese bureaucracy’s diminished power and status, it remains distinctive in a comparative context. The ministries have preserved cohesive organizational cultures, with long-­term tenure for officials and relatively few political appointees. They maintain strong sectoral policy networks, including affiliated agencies and the industries under their jurisdiction. Interest groups still contact bureaucrats much more frequently than politicians (Noble 2016, 195). The ministries continue to play a political role, coordinating interest groups in their own issue area and forging policy compromises. But if Japan’s administrative capacity declines further, that could severely damage the nation’s ability to meet the challenges to come.

Acknowledgments The author thanks Makoto Fukumoto and Marina Hamada for superb research assistance; Masahiro Horie, Jun Iio, and Hiroaki Inatsugu for critical advice; Ko Mishima, T. J. Pempel, and the editors of this volume for helpful comments; and the Il Han New Chair and the Center of Japanese Studies at the University of California, Berkeley for generous research funding.

Notes 1. Kiyoaki Tsuji (1969) propagated the bureaucratic dominance thesis before Johnson. Also see Pempel (1974) and Muramatsu (1981). 2. As of 2016, central government officials today accounted for 2.7 of 1,000 people in Japan, compared to 24.6 for France, 5.1 for Britain, 4.4 for the United States (2013 data), and 2.8 for Germany (National Personnel Authority 2019a, 3).

The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Bureaucracy   113 3 . This section builds on Vogel (1994). 4. See Vogel (1994, 1996) for further examples. 5. Inoguchi (1983) describes the policy process as one of “bureaucrat-­led inclusionary pluralism” (kanryoteki hokatsugata tagenshugi). 6. Interview with Hiromitsu Ohtsuka, Senior Deputy Director, Labor Relations Law Division, Labor Standards Bureau, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Tokyo, August 12, 2016. 7. Interview with Kazuyuki Imazato, Director, Innovation and Industry-­ University Collaboration Division, Industrial Science & Technology Policy & Environment Bureau, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, January 7, 2020.

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chapter 7

The Ja pa n ese J u dici a ry J. Mark Ramseyer

Japan operates a largely honest and meritocratic judiciary. For the most part, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) appoints men and women to the Supreme Court who share its center-­right politics. In appointing Supreme Court justices who share those policy preferences, the LDP does what majority parties do in most other modern democracies. The expected results follow: with justices who share the policy preferences of the government that passes the legislation, the court rarely invalidates statutes. This should not surprise US readers—after all, US Supreme Court justices appointed by Democratic (or Republican) presidents seldom vote to invalidate statutes supported by Democratic (or Republican) legislators either. The Supreme Court also supervises the administrative office (the secretariat) of the lower (district and high) courts. The senior judges who staff this office can reward and punish other lower court judges for the quality of the work they do—and they have. In this ability to reward and punish, these senior judges of the lower courts wield a power over their colleagues that judges in many other modern democracies (like the US) lack. Indirectly, the power again redounds to the benefit of the politicians in the majority party: the cabinet names the justices to the Supreme Court, those justices supervise the administrative office of the lower courts, and that office rewards and punishes lower court judges for the decisions they issue. Given this institutional structure, Japanese politicians have the indirect power to discourage judges from deviating from the policy preferences of the electoral majority. Whether this structure strengthens or weakens “democracy” depends on how one hopes to allocate power between the legislature and the courts, and among the various individual judges within the courts. What the “ideal” allocation of that power might be is not obvious, at least not to me.1 For the most part, the senior judges in the administrative office use their power over their colleagues to reward good work. Democracies that lack an administrative office with that power also lack that ability to enforce quality standards.

118   J. Mark Ramseyer Although the administrative office can also use this power to punish opposition politics, that very ability will cause law graduates to self-­select into (or out of) judicial careers. As a result, senior judges seldom actually exercise this power in any overtly partisan manner. I begin this chapter by outlining the organization of the Japanese courts. I describe the judicial administrative office, and the power that the judges serving in that office can have over their colleagues’ careers. I illustrate the way the judges in the office promote adjudicatory quality, discuss the place of women within the judiciary, and detail some of the visibly partisan disputes with the courts from the late 1950s to the mid-­1970s. I conclude by describing the sources available for empirical research into the operation of the Japanese courts.

The Courts Consider the basic structure of the court system, including the Supreme Court, the Secretariat, and the lower courts.2

Basic Structure The Japanese government maintains one national court system; prefectures do not have separate courts. The national government specifies court structure by statute (the Saibansho ho, or Courts Act).3 In that context, it also sets the number of judges by statute: 15 Supreme Court justices, about 3,000 lower court judges, and another 800 summary court judges.4 And it manages these courts through career judges staffing the judicial administrative office—known as the Supreme Court (Saikosai) Secretariat (jimu sokyoku). The cabinet and prime minister appoint Supreme Court justices directly (Courts Act, Sec. 39). Typically, they name men and women in their early sixties, and these justices then serve until mandatory retirement at seventy (Courts Act, Sec. 50). The justices face popular review at the first general election after their appointment, and every ten years thereafter (an obvious non-­issue given their age of appointment).5 No justice has ever come close to losing a review vote. The lower courts include high courts (koto saibansho), district courts (chiho saibansho), and family courts (katei saibansho). The eight high courts also staff six regional branch offices (shibu) and a special branch for intellectual property cases. The district courts and family courts number fifty each, and each set of courts staffs about two hundred branch offices. The cabinet appoints the lower court judges (Courts Act, Sec. 40), and appoints most of them directly after they graduate from the one national law school, the Legal Research & Training Institute (the LRTI—the Shiho kenshu jo). Theoretically, it could appoint more

The Japanese Judiciary   119 judges midcareer (as with US federal judges), but it does not. In practice, it approves the judicial candidates selected for it by the Secretariat (described below). Once appointed, judges serve a series of ten-­year terms (Constitution, Article 80), and face mandatory retirement at age sixty-­five (Courts Act, Sec. 50). Most tend to retire in their late fifties or early sixties. The judiciary includes another 400-­odd summary courts (kan’i saibansho). The judges in these courts face a mandatory retirement age of seventy (Courts Act, Sec. 50). They handle minor crimes and disputes involving controversies of 1.4 million yen or less.6 A few lower court judges choose to become summary court judges upon retirement from the lower courts at sixty-­five. Most summary court judges, however, did not attend the LRTI.

The Supreme Court The Supreme Court stands administratively outside the other courts. Unlike the lower court judges who rotate through a wide range of courts, the justices in the Supreme Court are appointed specifically to that court. By tradition, the Secretariat maintains informal quotas7 for justices appointed from the lower courts, justices appointed from the private bar, justices appointed from among prosecutors, justices appointed from university law faculties, and justices appointed from elsewhere in the bureaucracy. The justices hear the vast majority of their cases on five-­judge panels (unfortunately often translated as a “Petty Bench,” or shohotei) (Courts Act, Sec. 9). They hear cases of constitutional importance en banc (often translated “Grand Bench,” or daihotei) (Courts Act, Sec. 10). These en banc cases, however, are very rare. Supreme Court justices occasionally write concurring or dissenting opinions (lower court judges never do). Usually, the justices who write them are those who come from a career in a university or private practice. Note that in doing their work, Supreme Court justices can call on the help of lower court judges temporarily (typically for three years) appointed to the Secretariat. In addition to his work on the court, the Chief Justice administers the court system as a whole. More specifically, he supervises the Secretary General of the Secretariat. In turn, the Secretary General supervises the judges working in the personnel bureau of the Secretariat, and those judges oversee their colleagues in the lower courts. Chief Justices tend themselves to have served as Secretary General of the Secretariat during their careers in the lower courts.

Secretariat Of the various posts that lower court judges can hold, those in the Secretariat probably carry the greatest prestige. As just observed, some Secretariat judges write memoranda and draft opinions for the cases on appeal to the Supreme Court. Some serve in the

120   J. Mark Ramseyer personnel office and decide which of their colleagues to transfer to what city, whom to appoint as instructors to the LRTI, whom to second to the prosecutors’ office, who deserves a raise, who should serve as chief judge of a district court, who should go to a branch office, and who should succeed them at the Secretariat itself. A stint at the Secretariat is not just any judicial appointment. It is a post that those in the Secretariat assign to those colleagues they most trust. The judges who spend time there are judges on the fast track. They are the ones most likely to become president of one of the several high courts, and most likely eventually to serve on the Supreme Court.

The Lower Courts Turn then to the lower courts themselves.

Appointment and Reappointment In selecting judges to staff the lower courts, the cabinet picks from among candidates nominated by the Secretariat (Courts Act, Sec. 40). During the course of their LRTI education, law students intern at a court. There, the judges serving as instructors can monitor students with reasonable care. By most accounts, they encourage their preferred students to consider a career in the courts. Once appointed, judges work a series of ten-­year terms. Only rarely does the Secretariat not recommend a judge for reappointment. Article 78 of the Constitution provides that a judge cannot lose his job except by impeachment. The article apparently applies, however, only when the courts terminate a judge within the course of a ­ten-­year term. In 1971 the Secretariat declined to renew the appointment of Judge Yasuaki Miyamoto. By doing so, it caused a minor crisis. Miyamoto maintained clear fringe-­left ties, and had written several left-­leaning opinions. His political allies accused the Secretariat of politicizing the courts; his detractors claimed he was merely slow in his work (Ramseyer and Rasmusen 2003, 22–23). Since 2003, the Supreme Court has maintained an advisory committee on judicial appointments and reappointments. The committee includes both lawyers and nonlawyers. According to one former judge, the Secretariat introduced the committee as an attempt to reinstate quality control in the wake of the Miyamoto dispute. After the controversy, he explained, the Secretary became wary of turning anyone down. “Some judges are problems by anyone’s standards,” the judge noted, “but they were all being reappointed” (“Zadankai” 2018, 12–13). Over the course of the last fifteen years, the Secretariat has indeed denied reappointments. Table  7.1 shows the number of judges for whom the Advisory ­ Committee recommended reappointment, and number for which it then recommended non-­reappointment. As a measure of the number of judges actually denied reappointment by the Secretariat, it includes the number of judges who left the courts upon the

The Japanese Judiciary   121 Table 7.1  Judicial Nonrenewals Recommended

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Renew

Not Renew

Exit

202 162 261 208 187 206 221 225 223 251

3 4 3 4 4 5 3 2 2 2

4 5 4 6 3 2 4 2 2 4

Note: “Exit” refers to judges who left upon end of a ten-­year term, who had joined the court at least 35 years earlier. Sources: Yuka Kobayashji, “Goshitsumon kara” [From your questions], Libra September. 2018; Masashi Yamanaka, “Heisei 20 nendo iko, ninki shuryo ni yori taikan shita saibankan no ichiran” [List of judges who left upon expiration of their  term since 2008], April 19, 2019, http://yamanaka-­bengoshi.jp/saibankan/ 2019/04/19/ninkishuuryou/.

end of a ten-­year term (in order to exclude judges who were simply retiring, those who had joined the courts at least thirty-­five years earlier are not included).

Rotation Over the course of a judge’s career, the Secretariat’s personnel office shifts him or her through a wide variety of posts. It tends to move judges every three years (or so). The judges will welcome some of the moves, and resent others. They will see some of the moves as a step up, others as a step down. Most judges see assignments with administrative responsibilities as carrying prestige. They tend to covet posts at the Secretariat itself, teaching assignments at the LRTI, midcareer appointments to sokatsu posts (a position that gives a judge some administrative responsibility within the local court), and late-­career appointments as district court chief judges or high court “presidents.” They shun assignments to small branch offices. They interpret appointments to small claims courts as signaling something close to career death. Most judges also welcome appointments to metropolitan centers, particularly Tokyo. In part, they prefer Tokyo for professional reasons: the administrative core of the judiciary lies in Tokyo, and Tokyo courts handle the highest-­profile cases. They also prefer it for personal reasons: urban centers offer the greatest range of the educational and ­cultural facilities so important to professional class families.

122   J. Mark Ramseyer Inter-­city moves obviously strain family ties. Tokyo (or other metropolitan) judges who find themselves assigned to a small and unfamiliar city will sometimes leave their family in Tokyo. They will then commute during the week to their job, return home on weekends, and hope for reassignment to their home city at the end of their three-­year term. Recognizing these strains, the Secretariat tends to relocate midcareer judges less frequently than it does the very new judges. Average and star judges will have careers that differ only subtly. Most judges will spend some of their career in Tokyo or Osaka; most will also spend some time in small cities and branch offices. The distinctions between average and star judges lie in the fraction of their careers that the judges spend in each. Those bound for the district-­court chief judgeships and high court presidencies will spend relatively more time in the urban centers and administrative posts. Those not likely to cap their careers in those favored positions will spend more time in the branch offices in the outback.

Disciplinary Actions Just as the Secretariat now terminates judicial appointments by nonrenewal more often than before, it also seems to discipline judges more often. Generally, it disciplines them for entirely apolitical misconduct. Judges have been impeached for accepting gifts from lawyers,8 for soliciting child prostitution (Asahi Shimbun 2001), and for taking photos up the skirts of women in crowded trains (Asahi Shimbun 2012). They have been criminally convicted of demanding sex from a defendant (“Kiokutte” 2012), and of groping a woman on a bus (Asahi Shimbun 2009). The public discipline is probably not the whole story, of course: as recently as two decades ago, the Secretariat quietly pressured misbehaving judges to leave the courts, only to be welcomed by unsuspecting employers. Probably, it still does this. And anecdotes remain as ambiguous as they ever were, of course. Take the case of Judge Kiichi Okaguchi. Okaguchi wrote books about the courts, maintained a popular Twitter feed, and is vehemently left of center. Politicians pressured court administrators to impeach him, but the administrators apparently stalled impeachment by promising the politicians that they would convince Okaguchi to shut down his Twitter feed. Toward that end, in late 2018 they disciplined him for posting entirely innocuous comments on Twitter about a case involving an abandoned dog, and cut his pay in ­punishment (Burifu 2018). Lawyers championed Okaguchi on behalf of freedom of expression. Constitutional law professors joined the cause.9 Canadian law professor Colin Jones (2018) also joined the cause. And self-­appointed public intellectuals described the discipline as punishment for the way Okaguchi had criticized the Abe administration (Burifu 2018). To put it this way entirely misleads, however, for the case was wildly overdetermined. “Judge White Underpants,” Internet fans and detractors called him. Google “Okaguchi Kiichi” in Japanese Google, hit “images,” and ready yourself for endless variations on a middle-­aged man’s selfies of himself in his underpants. Fairly obviously—to this socially timid senior professor—the socially timid senior judges in the Secretariat and Supreme Court thought it unseemly to discipline a judge

The Japanese Judiciary   123 for posting pictures of himself in his underwear. The unstated issue was “judgment”: courts do not do well if cases involving murder, rape, price-­fixing, and million-­dollar contracts are adjudicated by men who think nothing of posting pictures of themselves in their underwear. Rather than restate what everyone knew (or should have known), they framed the issues in terms of a discreet dispute about an abandoned dog tweet. The puzzle is why Secretariat judges did not let Okaguchi go at the end of his first ten-­year term. Perhaps they have been wondering that too. Fairly obviously, they realized he needed to go. Okaguchi joined the court in 1994. By 1997 the Secretariat judges had demoted him to a summary court—and kept him there for twenty years running. They apparently thought he would resign on his own. He refused—and now they have a “Judge White Underpants.”

Pay All this has financial implications. Under Article 80 of the Japanese Constitution, the government may not lower a judge’s pay (apparently, the court treats formal disciplinary proceedings an as exception). Yet a successful judge starts his career at low pay and ends it at relatively high pay, and no rule of either constitution or statute requires the government to promote all judges at the same pace. The judicial pay scale leaves administrators considerable range to reward and punish judges.10 As of 2018, a new judge started his career at 232,000 yen per month. The president of the Tokyo High Court earned 1,406,000 yen per month. Compensation consultants estimated that the average judge in his early thirties earned 6.24 to 7.24 million yen per year, in his early forties earned 8.04 to 9.28, and in his early fifties earned 10.04 to 11.14.11 Although judicial pay is confidential, it correlates with observable markers. Roughly two decades into his career, the Secretariat will appoint the average judge to a sokatsu administrative post. Given that this coincides with appointment to pay grade 3, an interested scholar can use the appointment to gauge the pace at (or extent to) which a judge is climbing the pay scale (Nishikawa 2012).

Meritocratic Administration The Secretariat largely manages judicial careers as a meritocracy. Most prominently, those judges who graduate from the most selective universities—especially the University of Tokyo—spend more time in big cities, spend more time in administrative posts, and reach sokatsu status more quickly than their colleagues. They are more likely to start their careers at the Tokyo District Court (a signal that the Secretariat considers the judge among the most promising in his age cohort), and more likely to end their careers at the highest-­prestige assignments. Crucially, these men and women passed the hardest university entrance exams—and those exams test a person’s ability to solve hard problems quickly and correctly. Employers value people who bring that ability. They bid for them in the market and

124   J. Mark Ramseyer appoint them to key positions in an organization. Those private-­sector Tokyo lawyers who graduated from elite schools earned more than others (Nakazato, Ramseyer, and Rasmusen 2010); those in the courts who attended those schools reached more highly coveted positions. Other less obvious metrics similarly signal meritocratic operation. From a judge’s birth year and bar entry date, a scholar can estimate the number of times he failed the bar exam (more precisely, the entrance exam to the LRTI, shiho shiken). During the first postwar decades, the pass rate on this exam ranged between 1 and 4 percent. That rate has risen since then, but remains extremely low by American standards (Ramseyer and Rasmusen 2015). University background held constant, judges who passed the exam quickly—again, men and women who could solve hard legal problems quickly and correctly—were more likely to start their careers at the Tokyo District Court, to spend more time in metropolitan centers and in administrative positions, to spend less time in provincial cities and branch offices, to climb the pay scale more rapidly, and to reach more prestigious capstone positions. University of Tokyo graduates do not succeed because they went to the University of Tokyo, however; they succeed because the intellectual ability that let them pass the entrance exam also enabled them to work more productively (Ramseyer 2011, 2012). This is not a position that public intellectuals take, of course. As in the United States, Japanese intellectuals instead insist that the public focuses on the prestige markers for their own sake, and that those who did attend elite schools help each other out of tribal loyalty. At least in terms of the University of Tokyo graduates, the public intellectuals are wrong. University of Tokyo graduation does not matter; productivity does. To measure productivity, take the number of opinions a judge publishes during his time on a district court. One might reasonably suppose that the Secretariat focuses not on published opinions but on docket-­clearance rates—but docket-­clearance rates are not publicly available. The Secretariat probably does focus on these rates, but whatever measure it uses apparently correlates with published opinions. Of all judges hired between 1959 and 1961 (subject to several qualifications), University of Tokyo graduates constituted 22.7 percent. They were 30.6 percent of the judges who eventually became district court chief judges, 63.6 percent of the judges who became high court presidents, and 28.6 percent of the judges who joined the Supreme Court. They were also, however, more productive. On average, the University of Tokyo graduates published 2.3 opinions per year while on a district court bench. University of Kyoto graduates published 1.61 per year, and all other judges published 1.41 per year.12 Regress Supreme Court appointment on graduation from the University of Tokyo or University of Kyoto, on the number of times a judge failed the LRTI exam, on whether a judge started at the Tokyo District Court, and on a judge’s productivity (published opinions) per year on the district court bench, and the coefficient on productivity is statistically significant. The coefficient on University of Tokyo is not.

The Japanese Judiciary   125

Women Legally trained women disproportionately opt for judicial careers. In 2018, women constituted 26.5 percent of the 2,782 district- and high-­court judges.13 The represented 36.4 percent of the judges in the first decade of their careers (in 2016) (Yamanake 2017). Yet they were typically only 20–30 percent of those graduating from the LRTI. Obviously, one cannot tell whether the courts were aggressively recruiting women, or whether women were choosing the courts as a (plausibly) more family-­friendly career than private practice. But Table 7.2 gives the percentage of women among the population graduating from the LRTI, followed by the percentage entering the courts. From 2010 to 2014, the fraction entering the courts is notably larger than the fraction graduating from legal training. Women were not always such a large fraction of the courts. Of the judges hired from 1960 to 1969, they comprised 5.2 percent (Ramseyer and Rasmusen 2003, 40). They did not have successful careers. With university background and the number of times they failed the LRTI held constitute, they reached sokatsu status 3.5 years later than men. Given that appointment to sokatsu correlates with salary, they were moving up the pay scale substantially less successfully than their male counterparts (Ramseyer and Rasmusen 2003, 41; Wolff 2007). By the twenty-­first century, that pay bias against women may have disappeared (Ramseyer 2008). Take the 281 judges hired between 1978 and 1981, and ask whether they reached sokatsu status by 2003—effectively, whether they were in the top half of their cohort. With school background and LRTI failures held constitute, women were Table 7.2  Percentage Women among Those Graduating from Legal Training, and Those Joining the Judiciary Percentage of Women among Those Graduating

Becoming Judges

2010

26.3

31.4

2011

27.7

33.3

2012

23.0

30.4

2013 2014

26.0 22.5

39.6 28.7

Source: Bengoshi hakusho [Lawyer white paper], 2018, p. 48, https://www.nichibenren.or.jp/library/ja/jfba_info/statistics/ data/white_paper/2015/1-­3-­3_shinro_2015.pdf.

126   J. Mark Ramseyer just as likely as their male counterparts to reach sokatsu status. By this visible measure of pay, women no longer did worse than men. Women in these classes were also as likely as men to be named to the Tokyo District Court at the outset of their careers. They accepted inter-­city transfers as readily as men. They did not, however, take on administrative responsibilities as often as men (Ramseyer and Rasmusen 2006). Obviously, this might reflect sex bias on the part of the judges in the Supreme Court Secretariat. Alternatively, it might reflect a greater reluctance among women to accept responsibilities that might entail a greater time commitment.

Political Complications Among Western observers, the plausibly political complications to this judicial structure have attracted the most attention.14

Punishment During the 1950s and 1960s, leftist graduates of the LRTI routinely joined the courts. When they tried to implement their personal political preferences, however, the Secretariat began in the 1960s to punish them. In time, it would come to punish them brutally. Most obviously, consider cases raising the constitutionality of the Japanese Self-­ Defense Forces or of American military bases. On this question, Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2001a, 2003, 64–68) identified twenty-­five district court opinions involving forty-­seven judges. They take as a dependent variable the quality of a judge’s postings during the decade after his opinion. They then regress this quality measure on a dummy variable equal to 1 if a judge held the military unconstitutional, together with a variety of controls. They find that the judges who held the military forces unconstitutional received significantly fewer prestigious administrative assignments during the decade after the opinion. Or consider the electoral apportionment disputes. On this question, Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2001a; 2003, 68–73) locate sixty-­nine lower court opinions involving ninety-­ seven judges. They ask whether the judges who held the apportionment schemes unconstitutional during the period that the LDP leadership relied on the agricultural vote received worse job postings over the ensuing decade. They find that the judges did indeed receive worse postings: more branch office time and fewer administrative positions. Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2001a, 2003, 73–76) identify a similar dynamic in several other high-­profile partisan disputes. Judges who enjoined the national government, for example, suffered in their careers. So did judges who struck down the LDP-­favored ban on door-­to-­door canvassing (Ramseyer and Rasmusen 1997, 2003, 58–60).

The Japanese Judiciary   127 On less salient disputes, Ramseyer and Rasmusen (1999, 2001b, 2003, chaps. 5, 6) find less (if any) evidence of punishment. For the most part, the Secretariat does not punish judges simply for being overturned on appeal. It seldom punishes them for opposing the government on less sensitive questions. It does not punish them for ruling against the government in routine tax cases. Neither does it punish them for acquitting defendants in routine criminal cases.

The Young Jurists League Of the judges who joined the courts from 1960 to 1969, over a quarter were members of the far-­left (by some accounts the Communist Party [JCP]–affiliated) Young Jurists League (Seinen Horitsuka Kyokai, or YJL). These judges would not do well in their careers. University and LRTI exam failures held constant, they may have reached sokatsu status a year later than their colleagues.15 They less often found themselves posted to attractive cities, and they less often received the high-­status administrative jobs. This political bias against those who had joined the YJL haunted them in their careers. Even as late as the 1990s, they had less successful careers—they still found themselves less often assigned to administrative work, and more often found themselves assigned to branch offices (Ramseyer & Rasmusen 2006).

The Resulting Selection Bias Over time, this demonstrated capacity to punish drove selection into the courts. As of the late 1950s and early 1960s, Japanese intellectuals entertained a wide variety of visions of the postwar world. After all, the LDP itself dated only from 1955. Intellectuals working as bureaucrats at the Ministry of Finance joked about voting Communist. Those graduating from the LRTI could rationally hope that Japan would soon transform itself into a democratic socialist regime in the Western European mold. They could join the courts and rationally hope to play a part in the coming socialist transformation. By the 1980s, young LRTI graduates could no longer realistically entertain these hopes. Japanese voters had made it clear that they wanted a center-­right capitalist regime. The LDP fit their bill. And the Secretariat in the 1970s had made it clear that it demanded that its judges adjudicate in that center-­right mold. To a young Marxist graduate of the LRTI, the courts no longer offer an attractive career. To be sure, such graduates can hide their political preferences during the hiring interviews and obtain a job. But once a judge, they can no longer implement those preferences. By contrast, the private bar offers a far more rewarding life. There, they can safely indulge their Marxism. Note the result—judicial administration since the 1970s has shown far less partisanship for a simple reason: fewer far-­left LRTI graduates join the courts.

128   J. Mark Ramseyer

Political Interference By basic principal-­agent theory, what matters is that the prime minister and cabinet have the power to intervene in judicial personnel matters. They can pick the Supreme Court justices that they want. And they can pick justices who will decide cases the way they want, and manage the lower courts in ways that induce lower court judges to do so as well. Whether the prime minister ever observably intervenes in personnel decisions is beside the point. If the Secretariat knows that he can, it will administer the courts in ways that gives the prime minister no reason to intervene. It will anticipate the possibility of intervention, and administer the courts in ways that forestall that intervention. This result of this logic appears in the lawyers and law professors appointed to the Supreme Court. For the most part (as noted above), modern prosecutors and judges will probably share the conservative biases of the LDP. Yet both the private bar and the legal professoriate have consistently tilted left. Were the Secretariat simply to nominate the most prominent lawyers and law professors, it would regularly nominate men and women far to the left of the LDP. This it has not done. Instead, it has consistently named people within the center-­right mainstream. John Haley finds this logic unrealistic. He writes that Ramseyer and Rasmusen “do not offer any evidence of direct or indirect intervention by any politician in any ­decision made by senior judges assigned to the General Secretariat in appointing, assigning or promoting any judge.”16 In fact, however, the prime minister did directly— and shockingly—intervene in 1960. The incident involved Sakae Wagatsuma, and constitutes part of the oral history among University of Tokyo faculty. A Civil Code professor at the university, Wagatsuma was probably the single most influential law professor of the mid-­twentieth century. He had also known Nobusuke Kishi. During their years together at the First Higher School and the Tokyo Imperial University, they had been friends, rivals, and even roommates. By 1960, Kishi was prime minister. Over vehement public protests, he pushed for the renewal of Japan’s security treaty with the United States. Wagatsuma (1960) believed his friend was making the wrong choice, and on June 5 he published an open letter in the Asahi Shimbun. “You have only one path left to you,” wrote Wagatsuma. “That is to leave the political world, and go fishing.” In fact, the Secretariat had just (privately) nominated Wagatsuma to be the next Supreme Court Chief Justice. It was not to be, not after the go-­fishing letter. Kishi refused to appoint Wagatsuma, and so did his successor, Hayato Ikeda. Ikeda picked University of Tokyo professor Kisaburo Yokota instead. Wagatsuma never joined the court.

Research Scholars inclined to undertake projects related to the courts should understand the following. The official versions of statutes and regulations are those published in the Horei

The Japanese Judiciary   129 zensho—a monthly government publication. For most purposes, however, this is an entirely unusable source. Generally, a researcher wants to know the statutory framework in place at any given time. He needs the statute with all amendments as of a given date directly incorporated into it. The Horei zensho will instead provide each amendment to a statute, sorted by the month in which the Diet passed it. Fortunately, several publishers (e.g., Yuhikaku, Sanseido, Iwanami) offer annual compilations of the major statutes in place. Typically, the publishers hire committees of law professors to edit existing versions of statutes and incorporate all the amendments. Most of these volumes go by some variation on the generic title Roppo zensho (the Complete Six Laws). If there is an industry standard, it would be the two-­volume Yuhikaku version. But there is no reason to rely on that particular compilation. Scholars can choose the one with the statutes, formats, and size that they prefer. Note that a scholar can find many of the principal statutes with amendments incorporated on the Japanese government website.17 The government also provides English translations of the most basic statutes.18 These translations are, of course, nonbinding. Note, however, that for historical reasons there is a separate, official English translation of the constitution. Judges do not write opinions if the parties settle a case, of course, but they do write opinions in all cases they decide. Most of these opinions are never published, and those that are published will typically appear in either a private or a public “reporter.” Published three times a month since 1953, Hanrei jiho remains the best-­known and most complete of the private reporters. Presumably, the editors simply select the cases that they think will best help sell subscriptions. Scholars will find the case summary that the magazine provides for each opinion helpful. The summaries are unsigned, though scholars sometimes suggest that the judge who wrote the opinion often also writes the summary. The typical summary will not just explain what the writer (whoever he might be) finds most important about the case. It will also put the opinion in the context of prior opinions and commentary (something most opinions do not do). Hanrei Taimuzu (Times) is the Hanrei jiho’s closest competitor. Since 2013, it has appeared monthly. Prior to that, it appeared twice a month. From time to time, some journals in various legal fields will also publish opinions they think noteworthy for practitioners in the field. The courts publish several official court reporters. Some cover particular courts; some cover particular fields. Apparently, most courts maintain a committee to decide which opinions to publish. Judges can (and sometimes do) nominate their own cases for publication. This process obviously introduces a bias. Scholars can search all published cases (including searching by a judge’s name) through both the Westlaw and the Daiichi hoki (also known as Hanrei taikei or Lex DB) databases. Both include roughly the same populations of cases—all of the principal private reporters, together with the official reporters. Both also include roughly the same search functions. Note, of course, that scholar can search in either database only if they (or a library to which they have access) maintain a subscription to the service. Scholars will find some of the principal cases available through the Supreme Court website. They should understand, however, that the court posts only a subset of that

130   J. Mark Ramseyer which is available through the Westlaw and Daiichi hoki services. They should also ­realize that one cannot search this database by a judge’s name. The Supreme Court also posts English-­language translations of selected cases. Scholars should realize that these are most decidedly not a random sample of published cases. They are also translated into only haphazardly fluent English. Forewarned is forewarned. Research into the workings of the courts turns crucially on the availability of information about judicial postings. The group known as the Nihon Minshu Horitsuka Kyokai (NMHK—the Japanese Democratic Jurists Association) made this research possible in 1987 when it published the first edition of the Zen saibankan keireki soran (ZSKS, or Career History of All Judges). The ZSKS provides complete posting information for every judge who joined the court after the war. The NMHK compiled the book because it believed that the Secretariat had discriminated against leftist judges. It hoped that scholars would use the book to demonstrate that political bias in judicial administration. The NMHK itself has always been a left-­ leaning group. Anti-­Communist sites on the Internet list it as JCP-­affiliated (“Omona kyosanto” n.d.), though when a Kōmeitō politician described it as such, the group protested and demanded an apology (“Kogi to shazai” 2002). In any event, the ZSKS has done what the NMHK hoped. It has facilitated empirical work showing the political bias in the courts. Since 1987, the NMHK has published ­several editions. The most recent—the 5th edition—appeared in 2010.

Acknowledgments I gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments and suggestions of Mark Levin and the generous financial support of Harvard University and the University of Tokyo.

Notes 1. For examples of essays in English criticizing this Japanese judicial structure, see, e.g., Miyazawa (1991), Law (2009), and Levin (2011). For essays more favorable toward the judicial structure, see those by Haley (2007) and the perceptive discussion of the question by Upham (2005). 2. See generally Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2003), Ramseyer and Rosenbluth (1995), Foote (2007, 2010–2011), Haley (2007), Nishikawa (2008, 2010), Kinoshita (2010). 3. Saibansho ho [Courts Act], Law No. 59 of 1947. 4. Saibansho shokuin teiin ho [Authorized Employees of the Courts Act], Law No. 53 of 1951. 5. Nihon koku kenpo [Japanese Constitution], promulgated May 3, 1947, Art. 7. See Nishikawa (2012). 6. Saibansho ho [Courts Act], Law No. 59 of 1947, Sec. 33. 7. Subject to the binding quotas specified in the Courts Act, Sec. 41. 8. E.g., Asahi Shimbun (1981). Haley acknowledges cases like this, but somewhat oddly writes that “[j]udicial corruption is virtually unknown. Judges do not take bribes.” Bribery does indeed seem to be rare, though it obviously is not zero.

The Japanese Judiciary   131 9. See essays collected in Hanrei jiho 2392 (March 1, 2019). 10. Judicial pay is set by statute, Saibankan no hoshuto ni kansuru horitsu [Law Regarding Compensation, etc., of Judges], Law No. 75 of 1948. The pay scale as of January 2018 is available at: http://yamanaka-­bengoshi.jp/saibankan/wp-­content/uploads/2018/09/. 11. “Saibankan” (n.d.). For incomes for practicing attorneys as of 2004, see Nakazato, Ramseyer, and Rasmusen (2010). 12. See Ramseyer (2011), for details on sample selection. 13. Bengoshi (2018). On selection of women into the very top ranks of court, see Nishikawa (2018). 14. See generally Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2003), Haley (2007), Upham (2005), and Law (2009). 15. Fukumoto and Masuyama (2015) use survival analysis rather than OLS, correct several miscoded entries, and find that the phenomenon disappears. 16. Haley (2007). For a perceptive discussion of the debate between Haley and myself, see Upham (2005). 17. http://elaws.e-­gov.go.jp/search/elawsSearch/elaws_search/lsg0100/. 18. http://www.japaneselawtranslation.go.jp/?re=2.

References Asahi Shimbun. 1981. “Fuhai unda mujikaku” [Unawareness that led to rot]. Asahi Shimbun, July 11, 1981. Asahi Shimbun. 2001. Shojo baishun de muraki kosai hanji wo romen [Muraki high court judge dismissed for child prostitution]. Asahi Shimbun, November 28, 2001. Asahi Shimbun. 2009. “Moto hanji yuzai hanketsu” [Former judge convicted]. Asahi Shimbun, July 7, 2009. Asahi Shimbun. 2012. “Tosatsu no hanji fu wo dangai saiban ni sotsui” [Assistant judge taking secret photos pushed into impeachment trial]. Asahi Shimbun, November 14, 2012. Bengoshi hakusho [Lawyers white paper]. 2008. Tokyo. Bengoshi hakusho [Lawyers white paper]. 2018. Tokyo. https://www.nichibenren.or.jp/ library/ja/jfba_info/statistics/data/white_paper/2018/1-3-4_tokei_2018.pdf. “Buriifu hanji ‘kibishi sugiru chokei shobun’ no gen’in ha Abeseiken hihanka?” [Is criticism of the Abe government the reason for the “excessively harsh disciplinary measures” against Judge Underpants?]. Litera, October. 22, 2018. https://lite-ra.com/2018/10/post-4327.html. Foote, Daniel H. 2007. Na mo nai kaomo nai shiho [A nameless, faceless judiciary]. Tokyo: NTT Shuppan. Foote, Daniel H. 2010–2011. “The Supreme Court and the Push for Transparency in Lower Court Appointments in Japan.” Washington University Law Review 88: 1745. Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Mikitaka Masuyama. 2015. “Measuring Judicial Independence Reconsidered: Survival Analysis, Matching, and Average Treatment Effects.” Japanese Journal of Political Science 16: 33–51. Haley, John O. 2007. “The Japanese Judiciary: Maintaining Integrity, Autonomy and the Public Trust.” In Law in Japan: A Turning Point, edited by Daniel J. Foote. Seattle: University of Washington Press. Jones, Colin P.A. 2018. “Dog Tale Bites Judge.” Japan Times, September 5, 2018. Kinoshita, Tomio. 2010. Sengo shiho seido no keizaigakuteki bunseki [An economic analysis of the postwar judicial system]. Tokyo: Nihon Keizai Hyoron Sha.

132   J. Mark Ramseyer “Kiokutte ate ni naranai naa” [Memory is unreliable]. Ameba (blog), November 14, 2012. https://ameblo.jp/redsnakecomeon/entry-11403918370.html. “Kogi to shazai no yokyu” [A protest and demand for an apology]. Internet Archive, November 13, 2002. https://web.archive.org/web/20070312204100/http://homepage3.nifty.com/ n-heimoto/nichiminnkyou.html. Law, David. 2009. “The Anatomy of a Conservative Court: Judicial Review in Japan.” Texas Law Review 87: 1545–1594. Levin, Mark  A. 2011. “Civil Justice and the Constitution: Limits on Instrumental Judicial Administration in Japan.” Pacific Rim Law & Policy Journal 20: 265–318. Miyazawa, Setsuo. 1991. “Administrative Control over Japanese Judges.” Kobe University Law Review 25: 45–61. Nakazato, Minoru, J. Mark Ramseyer, and Eric Rasmusen. 2010. “The Industrial Organization of the Japanese Bar.” Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 7: 460. Nishikawa, Shin’ichi. 2008. “Shiho kanryo no keireki teki shigen” [Career resources of judicial bureaucrats]. Meiji daigaku shakai kagaku kenkyujo kyo 46: 49. Nishikawa, Shin’ichi. 2010. Saibankan kanbu jinji no kenkyu [Research on personnel management of senior judges]. Tokyo: Gogatsu Shobo. Nishikawa, Shin’ichi. 2012. Saikosai saibankan kokumin shinsa no jisshoteki kenkyu [An empirical study of public review of Supreme Court justices]. Tokyo: Gogatsu Shobo. Nishikawa, Shin’ichi. 2012. “Shiho gyosei kara mita saibankan” [Judges from the perspective of judicial administration]. June 1, 2013. http://www.nishikawashin-ichi.net. Nishikawa, Shin’ichi. 2018. “Saikin no saibankan jinji no keiko” [Recent trends in judicial ­personnel]. June 17, 2018. http://www.nishikawashin-ichi.net/oral-reports/oralreports-57.pdf. “Omona kyosanto kei dantai oyobi kanren dantai” [Principal JCP-affiliated groups]. http:// www2.odn.ne.jp/~caq10260/kyosantoukei.htm. Ramseyer, J. Mark. 2008. “Sex Bias in the Japanese Courts.” In Empirical Studies of Judicial Systems, edited by Kuo-Chang Huang. Taibei: Academia Sinica. Ramseyer, J.  Mark. 2011. “Do School Cliques Dominate Japanese Bureaucracies? Evidence from Supreme Court Appointments.” Washington University Law Review 88: 1681. Ramseyer, J.  Mark. 2012. “Talent Matters: Judicial Productivity and Speed in Japan.” International Review of Law and Economics 32: 38–48. Ramseyer, J. Mark, and Eric B. Rasmusen. 1997. “Judicial Independence in a Civil Law Regime: The Evidence from Japan.” Journal of Law, Economics & Organization 13: 259–286. Ramseyer, J. Mark, and Eric B. Rasmusen. 1999. “Why the Japanese Taxpayer Always Loses.” Southern California Law Review 72: 571–596. Ramseyer, J. Mark, and Eric B. Rasmusen. 2001a. “Why Are Japanese Judges so Conservative in Politically Charged Cases?” American Political Science Review 95: 331–344. Ramseyer, J. Mark, and Eric B. Rasmusen. 2001b. “Why Is the Japanese Conviction Rate So High.” Journal of Legal Studies 30: 53–88. Ramseyer, J. Mark, and Eric B. Rasmusen. 2003. Measuring Judicial Independence: The Political Economy of Judging in Japan. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Ramseyer, J.  Mark, and Eric  B.  Rasmusen. 2006. “The Case for Managed Judges: Learning from Japan after the Political Upheaval of 1993.” University of Pennsylvania Law Review 154: 1879. Ramseyer, J. Mark, and Eric B. Rasmusen. 2015. “Lowering the Bar to Raise the Bar: Licensing Difficulty and Attorney Quality in Japan.” Journal of Japanese Studies 41: 113–142.

The Japanese Judiciary   133 Ramseyer, J.  Mark, and Frances McCall Rosenbluth. 1995. Japan’s Political Marketplace. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. “Saibankan (hanji) no heikin nenshu” [Average salary of judges]. n.d. Heikin nenshu.jp. https://heikinnenshu.jp/shi/judge.html#chapter6. Upham, Frank  K. 2005. “Political Lackeys or Faithful Public Servants? Two Views of the Japanese Judiciary.” Law & Social Inquiry 30: 421–455. Wagatsuma, Sakae. 1960. “Sakae Wagatsuma, Kishi Nobusuke kun ni tsutaeru” [Message to Nobusuke Kishi]. Asahi Shimbun, June 5, 1960. Wolff, Leon. 2007. “Gender, Justice and the Japanese Judicary.” Tohoku daigaku jendaa ho nempo. Yamanake, Riji. 2017. “Joseihanji oyobi joseihanjifu no ninzu oyobi wariai no suii” [Trends in the number and proportion of female judges and assistant judges]. Osaka Bar Association (blog), April 27, 2017. http://yamanaka-bengoshi.jp/saibankan/2019/04/27/jyoseisaibankan-suii/. “Zadankai: Atarashii sanbankan jinji hyoka seido no 15 nen . . .” [Panel: Fifteen years of the new judge personnel evaluation system . . . ]. Libra, September 2018, at 8, 12–13.

chapter 8

Loca l G ov er nm en t i n Ja pa n Ken Victor Leonard Hijino

Local governments in Japan dwarf the central government in some significant respects. Their combined expenditures are 2.7 times that of national expenditures, and they jointly employ five times as many public servants as there are national bureaucrats. Japan’s 1,788 local governments provide most public services, from registering the births and deaths of residents to almost all other needs in between. There are 48 times more local politicians than national ones, including some governors who are among the most high-­profile public figures in the country. Since the mid-­1990s, a series of decentralization reforms have expanded local powers and ended the hierarchical relationship between levels of government. Despite their scale and significance, local governments are also constrained. Most municipalities and prefectures remain heavily dependent financially on central government transfers and subsidies. Comparatively speaking, both in terms of revenue decentralization and discretion over local tax levels, Japan is among the more fiscally decentralized unitary states in the OECD.1 Yet these local autonomy indicators fail to capture serious constraints on the majority of financially weaker municipalities and prefectures. With limited financial flexibility and ability to raise revenues, including bond issuance, the majority of local governments lack the resources to exercise substantial autonomy despite formal decentralization. Moreover, unlike federal systems, such as Germany or the United States, where regional governments have formal powers and representation through territorially based upper houses, local governments in Japan have limited formal powers to block national initiatives. In recent years, traditional intraparty bottom-­up channels to shape national policy have been eroded in Japan. One outcome has been that local governments are more overtly challenging and obstructing, albeit temporarily, national policy—such as agricultural deregulation, postal privatization, and US base policy. Japanese local governments are also at the front line of various challenges, from hyper-­aging to climate change risks, even as competition for resources intensify.

136   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino Interregional inequality has increased from comparatively low levels for an OECD country2 and has returned as a salient electoral issue. Democratic disaffection is also widespread. In the 2019 local elections, more than half of voters abstained and a record number of seats were filled unelected due to a shortage of candidates. Disaffection toward local democracy, though common in many democracies, comes with its own peculiar challenges in Japan. These include features such as the severe shortages of candidates due to hyper-­aging and the information costs to voters of choosing nonpartisan candidates in at-­ large districts. Frustrations, however, that Japanese local governments are powerless or that local elections are merely secondary to national elections—frustrations found in more centralized systems (such as among local authorities in England, for example)—are less common. To understand the complex dynamics and role of local government in Japan’s democracy, three related questions need to be addressed. First, how much capacity and autonomy do local governments have to act? Second, what impact does local government have on national-­level elections and policies? And finally, how responsive and accountable are local governments to residents? This chapter will seek to address these questions by first laying out the institutional framework of Japan’s local government system, including its recent decentralization reforms. In the second section, it illustrates how these institutional features combine with underlying socioeconomic conditions to shape local representation and intergovernmental relations. In the third section we briefly consider two interlinked and key challenges facing local government—combatting depopulation and improving representation. We conclude by briefly considering the dynamics of local autonomy, influence, and democracy in Japan.

Institutional Features This first section lays out the institutional features of Japan’s postwar local government system: its legal framework, types, sizes, responsibilities, and financial powers. We then briefly describe the dynamics of central-­local government relations and a series of decentralization reforms since the mid-­1990s.

Legal Framework A terse four articles (Chapter 8) of the 103 articles in the modern Constitution of Japan refer to local government. Article 92 states that the operations and organization “of local public entities” will be fixed by law according to “principle of local autonomy.” Article 93 provides for the establishment of legislative assemblies as well as the direct election of local legislators and chief executives. Article 94 grants local governments administrative and autonomous legislative powers within the scope of law. And lastly, Article 95

Local Government in Japan   137 requires referendums for the enactment of national laws applicable only to a specific local government. Details of the basic operation and organization of Japan’s local government system are fleshed out in the “Local Autonomy Law” (LAL). The LAL, which came into effect concurrently with the Constitution in 1947, enumerates the types and powers of local governments, the role of executives and legislatures, the rights of residents, as well as intergovernmental relations. Besides the LAL, other sets of laws, such as the Local Public Service Law, Local Finance Law, and Public Offices Election Law, cover specific areas of the local government system.

Types and Sizes There are two levels of local government in Japan: prefectures (todōfuken) and municipalities (shcihōson). Although the 47 wide-­ area local governments are all rendered as “prefectures” in English, they have different names in Japanese. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government, with special status as the national capital of Japan, is referred to as to. Hokkaido is a dō, and Kyoto and Osaka are fu, while the other 43 prefectures are designated ken. Similarly, the 1,718 municipalities have three types of appellations: shi for cities, chō for towns, and son for villages. There is considerable diversity in scale among Japanese local governments. The 47 prefectures range in population from 580,000 (Tottori) to 13.4 million (Tokyo), and in size from 2,000 km2 (Kagawa) to 80,000 km2 (Hokkaido). The 1,718 municipalities range in population from 166 (Aogashima) to 3.73 million (Yokohama). Since the establishment of Japan’s modern local government system in the Meiji period, the number of municipalities has fallen from roughly 75,000 to 1,718 currently through three waves of mergers (see Figure 8.1). Municipalities are classified primarily by population size. Ordinary cities are required to have a minimum of 50,000 residents. The largest cities (with over 700,000 residents) are given the status of designated cities (tokureishi), while those with more than 200,000 that have been designated by the cabinet are known as core cities (chukakushi).

Responsibilities and Finances Local governments are essentially engaged in the provision of all basic public services apart from those of diplomacy, defense, currency, or justice, which are dealt with exclusively by the national government. Prefectures, as regional governments encompassing municipalities, are responsible for wide-­scale affairs (e.g., prefectural roads, harbors, forest and river conservancy, public health centers, vocational training, and police), coordination and communication between municipalities, and supplementing municipal responsibilities (e.g., high schools, museums, hospitals). Municipalities are responsible for a wider range of public services, including resident registration (e.g., family registry),

138   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino 72500

71314

70000 15859 39

15000

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71314

1966

15820

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10982

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06

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04

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02

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3975 498 3472 3453 3392 3257 3253 3234 3229 3218 3100 556 558 560 643 651 663 671 675 695 2395 1903 739 1821 1727 1718 1935 1982 2005 1974 2001 1994 1990 1981 1872 777 786 790 1317 1574 981 913 827 640 601 577 568 562 533 339 846 757 745 198 184 183

19

7616

56

8518 8511

19

5000

19

10000

Figure 8.1.  Number of municipalities, 1888–2014. Source: Data from Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, “Shichōsonsū no hensen to meiji/showa no daigappei no tokuchō.”

health and safety (e.g., fire service, garbage, water supply, sewage), welfare (e.g., public assistance within cities, nursing insurance, national health insurance), urban development (e.g., urban design, municipal roads, and parks), and establishing and managing public facilities (e.g., public halls, day care, elementary and junior high schools, and libraries) (Council of Local Authorities for International Relations 2017). The scale of administrative responsibilities for Japanese local government is reflected in the number of local public servants and the size of their public expenditures. Prefectures and municipalities together employ, as of April 2017, 2.74 million public servants, which is 4.7 times the number of central government bureaucrats and public servants. Local government expenditures (58.5 trillion yen) represent 10.9 percent of nominal GDP, or 2.7 times the size of national government expenditures (22 trillion yen) in FY2016. Local governments spend primarily, in the following descending order, on public welfare, educational expenses, debt servicing, public works, and general ­ ­administrative expenses. Local expenditures represent 57.8 percent of national and local expenditures combined, whereas local tax revenues represent 40.1 percent of the combined tax revenues of national and local governments. Local and national governments share expenditures on a wide range of public services (see Figure 8.2). The main sources of revenue for local governments are local taxes, local allocation taxes, national treasury disbursements, and local bonds (see Figure 8.3). The amount of local tax revenues varies considerably across local governments depending on their size and tax base. On average, the largest cities generate around 40 percent of their total ­revenues from local taxes, while smaller cities, towns, and villages generate less than 25 percent from such self-­raised revenues (see Figure 8.4).

Local Government in Japan   139 Local

Central

Total

100%

57.8%

Sanitation expenses

3.7%

Public health centers, garbage disposal, etc.

School education expenses Judicial, police, and fire service expenses

42.2%

8.9% Elementary and junior high schools, kindergartens, etc. 4%

Social education expenses, etc.

2.9%

Community centers, libraries, museums, etc.

Public welfare expenses (excluding pension expenses)

22.4%

Child welfare, elderly care and welfare, public assistance, etc.

78%

22%

78%

22%

71%

8.2% Urban planning, roads and bridges, public housing, etc. 74%

Land conservation expenses

1.6%

Rivers and coasts

5%

Disater recovery expenses, etc.

0.6%

Debt services

20.6%

Agriculture, forestry and fishery expenses Housing expenses, etc. Onkyu pension expenses Pension expenses (of public welfare expenses)

1.7% 1.6% 0.2%

29%

26%

63%

37%

62%

38% 78%

36%

3%

44% 46%

22%

64%

56% 54%

97%

6.7%

100%

3%

100%

General administrative expenses, etc.

7.4%

Family register, basic resident register, etc.

Other

1.5%

100%

Defense expenses

13%

87%

Land development expenses

Commercial and industrial expenses

1%

99%

76%

24%

Figure 8.2.  Share of expenditure by national and local government (FY2016 final expenditure– based). Source: Data from Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, White Paper on Local Public Finance, 2018.

To compensate for the imbalance in local tax revenues and to ensure that all local governments are able to deliver standard public services and basic infrastructure, local allocation taxes (LATs) are provided. The LAT system guarantees that a portion of national tax revenue (on income, corporate, liquor, and consumption), together with all local corporate tax revenue, be set aside as a common financial resource for local governments. The amount of LATs provided to any local government is calculated from a prescribed formula that takes into account its estimated standard revenues and expenditures. As such, LATs cannot be increased through political pressure or lobbying. The use of LATs is up to the discretion of each local government, and, along with its local tax revenues, constitute the bulk of its general revenues.

140   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino

Bonds for the extraordinary financial measures ¥3,739.4 billion(3.7%)

Other revenue resources ¥16,290.5 billion(16.1%)

Local bonds ¥10,387.3 billion(10.2%)

Local taxes ¥39,392.4 billion(38.8%)

Net total ¥101,459.8 billion

General revenue resources ¥59,094.9 billion(58.2%)

National treasury disbursements ¥15,687.1 billion(15.5%)

Local allocation tax ¥17,239.0 billion(17%)

Special local grants ¥123.3 billion(0.1%)

Local transfer tax ¥2,340.2 billion(2.3%)

Figure 8.3.  Composition of local government revenues (FY2016 settlement). Source: Data from Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, White Paper on Local Public Finance, 2018.

In contrast, national treasury disbursements are earmarked for specific uses. These include funds for the implementing of mandatory national programs, such as compulsory education, but also subsidies for locally initiated projects promoted by the central government, including various public works projects. As these national subsidies are discretionary, they can, and have been, the target of local government lobbying, as discussed below. Finally, local governments are permitted to issue debt for restricted usage (e.g., for funding disaster emergency projects, construction of public facilities, and refinancing local bonds). The amount of outstanding local government debts has surged since the 1990s to cover declining local tax revenues as well as to fund public infrastructure projects to stimulate local economies. As of 2017, local government debt was over 200 trillion yen, more than three times that of its total general revenues.

Local Government in Japan   141 60% 54.6

54 50%

40%

54.8

55

55.4

26.2

24.7

50.8

12.6

33.5

39.2

4.7 0.1

10%

0%

2.9

37.5

40.2

30%

20%

53.9

4.6 0.1 38.4

5.2 0.1 15.2

6 0.1 4.5

Average for all municipalities

Designated cities

5.5 0.2 9.7 Core cities

5.5 0.2

24.1

26.1

11.7 Midsize cities

Small cities

Towns and Towns and villages villages (population of (population of 10,000 or more) Less than 10,000)

General Revenue Resources Local taxes Local transfer tax, etc.

Special local grants Local allocation tax

Figure 8.4.  Composition of general revenue sources for municipalities (FY2016 settlement). Source: Data from Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, White Paper on Local Public Finance, 2018.

Decentralization Reforms Despite the US Occupation authority’s efforts to decentralize the prewar system under the Meiji constitution, features of centralization soon crept back into Japan’s postwar local government system. These included a system of delegated functions mandating local executives to carry out a wide range of programs and public services; limited revenue-­raising powers of local governments in terms of local taxation and debt-­ issuance; and the dispatch of national bureaucrats to local governments for supervision, among other mechanisms (Steiner 1965; Tsuji 1976). These features formed the “vertical administrative control” model of local government. Scholars have revised the model by showing how local governments used these mechanisms of centralization to pursue their own policy initiatives, making the relationship more mutually dependent than simply coercive (Muramatsu 1988; Reed 1986; Samuels 1984). Local autonomy, however, has long been fundamentally constrained by a fiscal centralization that has hindered the initiation of local policies requiring self-­raised funds (Reed 1986, 31–32, 149; Sunahara 2011b, 25). Dependency on national government transfers resulted in a fiscally centralized and clientelistic system that underpinned one-­party predominance by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the postwar period (Scheiner 2006). In this system, local politicians and governments, particularly in financially

142   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino weaker rural areas, were incentivized to maintain links with the ruling party at the national level and support its candidates in order to attract necessary subsidies to their communities. Using both political and bureaucratic channels, local governments competed “horizontally” with one another (Muramatsu 1988) to lobby for these centralized financial resources. Such a clientelistic relationship was, in the long run, costly to the state and atrophied local economies, which became increasingly dependent on central government subsidies. For long, a “mixed chorus” of local governments, ministries, reformist politicians, and scholars had called for decentralization in the postwar period (Narumi 1994). Steps toward substantial decentralization, however, only began in the context of a slowing Japanese economy and concerns about the mounting costs of funding local public service. During the 1980s, the second Ad Hoc Commission for Administrative Reform (Rinchō), under pressure from business organizations, began calling for decentralization to combat administrative inefficiency (Nishio 2007, 62–62; Sunahara 2011b, 22–23). Substantial advances toward decentralization measures were implemented around the time of the LDP’s loss of its parliamentary majority in 1993. A resolution to promote decentralization followed in 1993, and the Murayama administration enacted the Decentralization Promotion Act in 1995. This act established a government commission empowered to provide recommendations on decentralization. Decentralization, the commission argued, was necessary to overcome systemic fatigue of a centralized administrative system, free the central government to deal with more volatile international relations, combat over-­centralization in Tokyo, promote diversity in regions, and respond to an aging society (Committee for the Promotion of Decentralization 1996). Since these recommendations, three sets of decentralization reforms have taken place. First, the Omnibus Decentralization Promotion Act (2000) ended many of the formal administrative features of centralization. Local and national governments were placed on equal footing, with their respective roles and discretionary powers clarified. The system of agency-­delegated functions was abolished and the responsibility for a majority of these functions was transferred to local governments. Rules and process for central intervention in local matters were clarified, and in the event of intergovernmental conflict, a central-­local dispute-­resolving mechanism was put in place. Second, fiscal decentralization (2002–2006) under the Koizumi administration, known as the “trinity reforms,” transferred tax revenue sources to local governments, reformed the LAT system, and substantially reduced overall subsidies and transfers from central to local governments. The third set of decentralization reforms began with the enacting of the Promotion of Decentralization Reform Bill (2006) under the first Abe administration. Thus far, the act has resulted in nine separate omnibus laws (2010–2019) that have primarily reduced ministerial guidelines and regulations over local service provisions and devolved authority of different policy areas to lower-­level governments. It is difficult to assess the net impact of these reforms on local autonomy and policy diversification at the local level due to the scale, range, and ongoing nature of reforms. Many scholars and practitioners have emphasized the historical significance of abolishing

Local Government in Japan   143 ­ elegated functions and a formal end to hierarchical relations between levels of ­government. d Yet local governments continue to note obstacles caused by national regulations and guidelines in local policy provision in areas like child care, nursing, and transport, while calling for further decentralization.3 The Cabinet Office, on the other hand, has enumerated more than a hundred cases of successful local policy innovations resulting from decentralization.4 It is unclear whether such “successes” are exceptional or representative across the vast range of services delivered by all local governments. Less disputable is the continued financial constraints facing most local governments despite fiscal decentralization. In general, self-­raised revenues have not increased or become more diversified since the 2000s. On average, local taxes as a proportion of total revenues have not increased for both prefectures and municipalities, staying around 40 percent before and after the trinity reforms, even as LAT and national disbursements have fallen from peak levels (see Figure 8.5). Aside from a few special-­purpose taxes and publicized cases of changes to local tax rates (such as lowering local residence taxes in Nagoya city), decentralization reforms have not brought about new local taxes or divergence in local tax rates (Mochida  2013, 155–157; Soga  2019, 208–210). This is in part a result of continuing restrictions on bond issuance for local governments that set their local taxes lower than standard rates and for local governments with weak finances (Fukazawa 2012). Fiscal decentralization also widened fiscal disparity between richer and poorer regions, as the majority of regions with weaker tax bases could not raise enough local 25

100% 90%

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5

0% National Treasury Disbursements

Figure 8.5.  Local allocation tax, national treasury disbursement, and ratio of local tax r­ evenues, 1965–2017 (settlement base). Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication, “Kuni oyobi chihō no zeizaigen haibun no suii,” for share of local taxes in local revenue; LAT and national treasury disbursement levels from Zaisei Kinyū Tōkei 793, “Kuni oyobi chihō kōkyōdantai no sainyū kōzō no suii.”

144   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino revenues to offset reduced LATs and subsidies (Mochida 2008). Compounding these effects, declining particularistic spending (Noble 2010) and privatization policies under the Koizumi administration further impacted rural economies. Growing interregional economic inequality (Yamada 2010) has been accompanied by greater negative public perceptions and heightened salience of the issue of interregional inequality in elections (Chiavacci 2010; Hijino 2016b). Alongside decentralization, local governments have also been transformed by a wave of municipal mergers between 1999 and 2006. Prompted by national government financial incentives, the number of municipalities declined from 3,223 to 1,820. Municipal mergers reduced turnout and LPD vote shares in national elections (Horiuchi, Saito, and Yamada  2015) as the number of local politicians (assembly members as well as ­mayors) who campaigned as the “arms and legs” for the party during national elections decreased sharply (see, e.g., Scheiner 2006). These municipal mergers and fiscal decentralization measures are understood to be part of the LDP’s general strategy of shifting its fiscal resources away from rural areas to the more competitive urban areas, which had become electorally more important following the 1994 electoral system reforms (Saito and Yamada 2011, 114). In spite of mixed results and considerable political backlash for the LDP, decentralization has remained, albeit weakly, on the agenda. The Decentralization Reform Promotion Committee (2007–2009) has recommended, among other things, further transfer of tax revenue sources to local governments, localization of consumption tax and creation of a lateral fiscal adjustment system, abolishing central government regional branches, and reforms to improve the democratic functions of local legislatures (see section 3, “Local Government Challenges and Responses”). Decentralization reforms were also championed by the DPJ administration (2009–2012), including the creation of an official advisory council to promote “regional sovereignty.” Proposals to abolish and merge prefectures into about eight to twelve regions to create a new region-­based local government system (dōshusei) also gained salience during this time, with cheerleading from governors of prefectures such as Osaka and Aichi. Since 2012, however, the major parties have toned down their emphasis on decentralization reform in electoral campaigns (Hijino 2016a). Like many OECD countries, widening disparities across regions—primarily between economically dynamic urban areas and depopulating and aging rural areas—have become a salient issue in Japanese politics. Center-­driven redistributive policies during the high-­growth era shifted in the 1990s toward decentralization and measures encouraging interregional competition and self-­reliance (Winkler and Hijino  2018). The consequent increase of regional inequality has undermined support for political decentralization and market deregulation, once promised to revive local communities and disperse economic activity across the country. Urban-­rural disparities have also generated an electoral backlash in the post-­Koizumi period, as rural voters increasingly felt that they were being “left behind” by the LDP’s shift toward urban interests. Later administrations have sought to balance urban and rural interests, trying to “sublate” these inherent tensions between an electorally

Local Government in Japan   145 shrinking, but still important, rural electorate and urban voters critical of traditional clientelistic practices targeted at rural areas (Nakakita 2017). The second Abe administration, for example, restored levels of public works spending to the regions while also pushing for agricultural deregulation and more interregional/municipal competition and self-­reliance (see section 3, “Local Government Challenges and Responses”).

Interest Representation and Partisan Dynamics In this section we look at how the various institutional features of Japan’s local government shape its electoral politics and partisan dynamics. We begin by looking at the role, partisan representation, and interaction of the executive and legislative branches. This is followed by a brief discussion of the multilevel dynamics between national and local arenas: how local politics affects national policy and elections, and vice versa.

Chief Executives and Local Assemblies All Japanese local governments have separately and directly elected executive and legislative branches, making them “presidential” or “dual representation” (nigen daihyō) systems. The executive, headed by the governor or mayor, carries out policies decided upon by the legislature. Although the executive has autonomy over its internal organization, it must by law appoint deputy governors and mayors. It is also obliged to establish specific administrative committees—such as the Board of Education, Public Safety Commission, and Board of Elections—to carry out responsibilities in their respective fields independently of the chief executive. The chief executive is elected by a simple plurality rule, serves a four-­year term, and faces no legal term limit. The degree of partisan affiliation and involvement of national parties in gubernatorial elections has waxed and waned (see Figure 8.6), but nonpartisan (mutōha) or pan-­partisan (ainori) candidates have been most common (Soga  2019, 38–40). From the perspective of the gubernatorial candidate, this electoral strategy reflects a desire to seek support across different partisan voters as well as “floating voters” who do not support any party, and have been the majority of voters since the mid-­1990s. From the party organization perspective, pan-­partisan coalitions emerge in contexts like Japan where party organizations are decentralized and competition not party-­ centric. Attempts by parties’ headquarters to back their own partisan candidates, particularly those seen as “parachuted in” to the region, are often rebuffed by autonomous local party organizations. Local party branches would prefer to back their own preferred “local” candidate or even one nominated by a rival party, usually rallying

146   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino 40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 LDP

LDP + Centrist

Pan-partisan

DPJ

Non-LDP Conservative +Centrist

Centrist + Progressive

Progressive

Nonpartisan

Figure 8.6.  Partisanship of governors, 1959–2018. Note: Based on recommendations (suisen) or support (shiiji) provided by parties during gubernatorial elections. Centrist = Komeito, Japan Democratic Socialist Party, and other centrist parties; Pan-­party = LDP and leading opposition party; Non-­LDP Conservative = splinter parties from LDP, including Japan Innovation Party; Progressive = JSP or JCP; Nonpartisan = support from no party. Source: Data from Soga (2019), 39.

behind whichever candidate is most likely to win. The underlying logic for assembly members is to secure access to budgetary decisions by aligning themselves to the chief executive (oftentimes particularistic spending, which benefits supporters and constituencies of individual assembly members) rather than risk losing a partisan contest (Hijino 2014). Exceptions to this tendency emerged during periods of more heightened two-­party competition at the national level, which spilled over into local elections—first when major urban areas were under control of socialist or communist-­backed governors or mayors (1960s–1970s), and later when partisan gubernatorial contests emerged between the LDP and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) (2000–2010). The legislative branch (referred to as prefectural and municipal assemblies) represents, deliberates, and acts as the decision-­making body for the community. The number of assembly seats is determined by each local government within a maximum number set by its population size. Local assembly members are elected through an SNTV (single non-­transferable vote) system for a four-­year term. District magnitudes

Local Government in Japan   147 range between 1 and 17 for prefectures and 2 and 50 at the municipal level. Most municipalities have one at-­large district, but some of the larger cities are split into multiple electoral districts. The degree of partisan representation in local assemblies varies, mainly depending on the population size of the local government. As of 2017, an average 81.1 percent of candidates are partisan candidates at the prefectural level, while this figure is 41.8 percent for all municipalities5 (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 2017). At the prefectural level, the LDP has maintained a dominant position in most prefectures, even in the post-­ 1994 environment of national-­ level electoral volatility (see Figure  8.7). Opposition parties have only made moderate gains, limited mainly to more urban areas. At the municipal level, local Komeito and JCP have long outnumbered LDP assembly members due to the fact that many LDP-­affiliated local politicians do not register themselves as partisans for elections. The prevalence of nonpartisans primarily reflects SNTV dynamics, which pit co-­ partisans against each other in the same district and encourages the cultivation of personal, rather than party, votes. It also reflects strategies of local politicians to distance themselves from national parties when they become unpopular at the national level (Hijino  2013). Local co-­partisans generally do not coordinate effectively either in campaigns or the legislature. Instead of offering a united program for the whole community, as do gubernatorial candidates, local assembly candidates tend to focus on targeting a narrow constituency through particularistic promises (Soga and Machidori 2007; Sunahara and Hijino 2013). 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1959 19631967 1971197519791983198719911995199920032007201120152019 LDP

JSP

DPJ

Komei

JCP

Other

Independents

Figure 8.7.  Partisanship of prefectural assembly members, 1959–2019. Source: Data from Asahi Shimbun and Asahi Nenkan, various years.

148   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino

Executive-­Legislative Dynamics Institutionally, the relationship between the two branches, though formally envisioned as one of checks and balances, has institutionally advantaged the executive (Soga and Machidori 2007). First, governors and mayors not only have the power to propose bills, but also exclusive authority to draft and submit budgets. Although assemblies vote to pass budgets and can revise them at the margins, they are constrained from initiating policies requiring new expenditures. Second, the chief executive can block resolutions passed by the assembly by demanding “reconsideration” of a bill. In such a case, the assembly needs to vote in favor of the bill with a two-­thirds or more majority to override the executive veto. Additionally, the chief executive can exercise discretionary actions on behalf of the assembly even if it has not been convened or when it fails to act. The local assembly has institutional powers to check and monitor the executive as well as formulate policy. Its most important ones are those of voting on the budget as well as establishing, amending, and abolishing ordinances. On average, however, more than 90 percent of all local government bills are submitted by the executive. Most of these are passed by the assembly without revisions. The continuing weakness of the assemblies’ policy-­making and -revising capacities stems from a lack of resources (including access to policy staff) and limited electoral incentives to focus on policy programs for the whole community (Hijino 2015). Nevertheless, assemblies do influence outcomes through prior consultation with the executive outside of the formal legislative arena. At the prefectural level, the partisan composition of legislatures and executives have been found to affect expenditure levels and policy content (Soga and Machidori 2007; Sunahara 2011b) as well as generate ideologically driven clashes between the two (Tsuji 2016). When conflict between the two branches becomes irresolvable, the assembly can pass a vote of no confidence in the chief executive. If successful, the chief executive must either dissolve the assembly, resign, or resign and stand as a candidate in the subsequent election. Although no-­confidence votes have been rare, there have a number of high-­ profile cases leading to resignations and re-­elections since the 1990s. Since the 2000s, increasing intra-­branch conflicts have led to the emergence of governors and mayors, primarily in urban areas, who have launched their own parties to wrest control over uncooperative assemblies. These include the governors of Shiga (Yukiko Kada, 2006–2014); Osaka (Tōru Hashimoto, 2008–2011, later Osaka mayor, 2012–2014); Tokyo (Yuriko Koike, 2016~); and the mayor of Nagoya (Takashi Kawamura, 2009~). These executives tended to appeal to floating voters, often in “populist” style (Arima 2017), by promising sharp cuts to what they deemed “wasteful” public works and services benefiting “vested interests.” They would frequently campaign on reducing their own salaries as well as those of assembly members and local public servants. Facing resistance from legislatures controlled by mainstream parties, these chief executives have then launched their own local parties and succeeded in gaining control of local assemblies.

Local Government in Japan   149 Enjoying considerable national media attention, these chief executives then sought to translate local success onto the national stage by launching national parties. Their fates have varied. Kada’s Tomorrow Party of Japan and Koike’s Hope Party were short-­lived, collapsing after the first lower house elections they contested in 2012 and 2017, respectively. In contrast, Hashimoto’s Osaka-­based Japan Innovation Party became the third-­largest party in the lower house following the 2012 and 2014 elections, establishing itself in the Kansai region at multiple levels of government. Despite difficulties in expanding beyond their home region and sustaining their initial success, these new regional parties have impacted the national level. For example, the JIP successfully pressured the national government to pass a law enabling Osaka city to be merged into Osaka prefecture to form a new metropolitan region. These “third pole” parties (Pekkanen and Reed 2016) have also had a major fragmenting effect on national-­level opposition in the three general elections since 2012, advantaging the ruling coalition party.

Multilevel Dynamics The influence of local governments on national policy-­formation has been a significant one in the postwar period. Most famously, during the “progressive local government era” of the mid-­1960s to 1970s (Okada  2016), non-­LDP forces captured the chief executive posts of major cities and challenged national government policy, in particular over environmental regulations and welfare. This led to local policy innovation in these areas and eventual diffusion across local governments and co-­optation at national level (Calder 1988; Reed 1986; Steiner, Krauss, and Flanagan 1980). Recent studies have investigated the impact of decentralization reforms and electoral reforms on multilevel dynamics. These include various studies pointing to the weakening of individual client-­patron linkage between national and local co-­partisans, due to a shift from multi-­member to single-­member districts in lower house elections (e.g., Yamada  2007; Uekami  2008). The asymmetry in electoral systems between the centric national one and the more personal-­ vote-­ based more majoritarian, party-­ local  one is argued to result in diverging party systems across levels (Uekami  2013), decentralized party organizations (Tatebayashi  2013,  2017), and to contribute to the failure of stable two-­party competition at the national level (Sunahara 2017). Similarly, decentralization is seen to have reduced the frequency of contact between politicians and bureaucrats across national and local levels (Muramatsu 2010). With local governments gaining new powers through decentralization and national-­ level elections becoming more volatile in recent years, the offices of governor and mayor have become more attractive. There is intriguing evidence of an increasing number of former parliamentarians standing for local chief executive posts (Sunahara  2011a), although the traditional career path of moving from local to national levels continues to be important for both newer and older parties.

150   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino As links among co-­partisans at both levels have weakened, intraparty tensions have also become more visible. These include conflicts between party headquarters and local branches among major parties over gubernatorial candidate selection (Hijino  2014; Tsuji 2010). Local branches have also resisted national-­level candidates parachuted into their districts, as was evident against postal privatization “assassin” candidates in the 2005 lower house elections (Asano  2006). Since the 2000s, local branches of major parties have also been found to more frequently resist policies pursued by national headquarters through overt actions (Hijino 2017). During the same period, local governments have also challenged national policy across a wide range of areas, such as consumption tax, agricultural sector deregulation, trade policy, and NIMBY issues over the local siting of military bases, dams, and nuclear plants. In some cases, such as during the reduction of subsidies and transfers during the trinity reforms, gubernatorial organizations have played a more combative role in negotiating with the central government (Hijino 2017). Local partisans have put pressure on the national party headquarters by passing local assembly resolutions against these policies, or by threatening to reduce campaign support in national elections. Nonbinding local referendums against nationally backed projects, first conducted in 1996 in Niigata over the siting of a nuclear plant, have also become more common. Four local referendums have been held over military bases in Okinawa, including a prefecture-­wide one held in 2019 opposing construction of a new US Marine Corps base in Henoko Bay. Formal arbitration, including the use of courts, to settle conflicts between government levels are infrequently used, although both sides have resorted to these channels in extremis. So far, only one case (Yokohama city in 2001) has been arbitrated by the Central and Local Government Dispute Management Council, a body set up under the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications as part of the decentralization reforms. The council examines and gives judgment on the legality of national government intervention in local government matters. The Okinawan government applied for arbitration on multiple occasions to the council over US base construction, but the council has dismissed them each time as not subject to its examination. Without recourse, the Okinawan government has sued the national government in courts. The national government in turn has sued the Okinawan government on multiple occasions to compel cooperation over the Henoko base construction. These lawsuits also included the very rare initiation of a mandamus proceeding against the Okinawan government in 2015 to force local governments to carry out administrative duties when they have a legal duty to do so. Finally, of comparative interest, but less well researched in Japan’s multilevel dynamics, is whether local elections results converge or diverge from national results (i.e., how “second order” they are). Folk theories of local government elections claim that key local elections—particularly the Tokyo metropolitan assembly elections—are “preliminary skirmishes” (zenshōsen) prior to national elections. For example, the DPJ victory over the LDP in the 2007 Tokyo assembly elections was seen as a precursor to its victory in the 2009 general elections.

Local Government in Japan   151 Another popular theory claims that voter turnout and support for the LDP falls for upper house elections occurring in the same year as unified local elections. During such years, according to the theory, most local politicians have already secured their seats and have “exhausted themselves” in their own campaigns. As a result, incentives and energy to campaign for national co-­partisans fall, leading to lower turnout and support, particularly for the LDP. General voter turnout and LDP vote shares have indeed largely fallen for House of Councillors (HC) elections every twelve years during which unified local elections occur, including in 2019 (although turnout jumped sharply in 2007).

Local Government Challenges and Responses Japanese local governments are at the front line of many of the socioeconomic challenges facing the nation as a whole. These include natural disasters, including climate-­ change driven ones; maintaining public services in a hyper-­aging society; and adapting to a growing influx of foreign labor and a surge of tourists in certain localities. Besides these issues, rural depopulation and democratic dysfunction are some of the most critical problems that have gained attention in recent years and to which we give an overview.

Rural Revitalization Challenges The question of rural depopulation and overcrowding in cities in Japan is nothing new. The terms kaso (depopulation) and kamitsu (overcrowding) were being used since the late 1960s. Decades of policies have sought to alleviate this demographic imbalance, but the problem has only intensified. In 2014 the publication of the infamous “Masuda Report” calculated that half of Japan’s municipalities would see the portion of childbearing women fall below half of current levels by 2040 and are at a high risk of becoming “extinct” (Masuda 2014, 30). The report linked the mechanism of rural depopulation to overconcentration in the  metropolitan regions. Tokyo, with the lowest fertility rate of all prefectures (1.13 compared to national average of 1.41), was sucking in younger generations like a demographic “black hole,” and on arrival these young people were not bearing children. Compared to other developed economies, Japan is exceedingly concentrated in Tokyo: As of 2014, 30 percent of the country’s population was living in the metropolitan region, compared to between 5 and 15 percent for Paris, London, New York, Rome, and Berlin (Masuda 2014). In November 2014 the Abe administration enacted a bill on regional development to tackle depopulation and “create regions” (chihō sōsei) with more attractive employment

152   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino opportunities for younger families. Under the scheme, local governments were responsible for drafting plans to revive their communities through projects that could lead to local employment. The central government in turn was to back up these projects through subsidies as well as personnel and information sharing. The chihō sōsei measures are similar to past ones of targeted subsidies to generate local economic activity and stem rural depopulation (Winkler and Hijino 2018). They are, however, different in emphasizing local initiative and predicating continued funding on the success of these projects. So too is a more overt emphasis on intergovernmental competition for funds, awarding those local governments that make an “effort” and allowing others to fall behind (Yamashita and Kanai 2015, 177–182). The central government has also sought to encourage rural revitalization through a unique “hometown tax donation” (furusato nōzei) system, with inadvertent negative effects. The scheme allows taxpayers to donate a deductible portion of their local taxes to local governments of their choice. Recipient local governments send gifts—usually, but not limited, to local products such as agricultural produce and crafts—to the “donor” in return. First introduced in 2007, and expanded through raising deductible amounts in 2015, the scheme has become both increasingly popular (with one in six Japanese taxpayers donating a total of 350 billion JPY in 2018) and problematic. Some local governments have suffered a sharp drop in their local revenues, while others have seen revenues soar by attracting donations through increasingly lavish “gifts.” Critics have claimed, among other things, that wealthy taxpayers disproportionately benefit from the scheme at the expense of a net loss in tax revenues for the state due to costs of administering, advertising, and purchasing return gifts for donors.

Local Democratic Challenges Turnout, candidacies, and competitiveness in all types of local elections have been steadily declining throughout the postwar period. During the unified local elections that occurred in April 2019, average voter turnout in local elections (legislative and executive elections at prefectural and municipal levels) plumbed new lows, all falling below 50 percent. At the same time, a lack of candidates meant a third of all seats for prefectural assemblies, representing close to 40 percent of all electoral districts, were filled without elections. Nearly a quarter of all seats were uncontested in town and village assemblies (see Figure 8.8). Local assemblies have also been criticized as lacking in diversity, dominated by older males with particular backgrounds (such as in agriculture, self-­employment, retired, or independently wealthy). With few younger and female members, or regular employees with day jobs, assemblies are seen as being insufficiently representative of the broader community (Nakamura 2016, 26–32). Aging and shrinking populations have created another critical challenge: a shortage of candidates. In many smaller rural communities, assembly seats are filled without election or with very limited competition, resulting in low turnover and few fresh

Local Government in Japan   153 25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

1955 1959

1963 1967

Prefectural assembly

1971 1975 1979 1983 Designated city assembly

1987

1991 1995 City assembly

1999 2003 2007

2011 2015

Town and village assembly

Figure 8.8.  Percentage of uncontested local assembly elections, 1955–2015. Source: Data from Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, “Tōitsu chihō senkyo ni okeru kaisenteisū ni shimeru mutōhyō tōsenshasū no wariai no suii.”

faces in the assemblies. Some of the smallest villages that face chronic candidate shortages—such as Okawa village in Kōchi prefecture—have contemplated abolishing the elected assembly altogether and replacing it with a general assembly of all ­registered voters. In terms of performance, local legislatures are criticized for not adequately monitoring the executive to prevent poor investment decisions and/or corruption. Assemblies and individual members have also been questioned for lacking transparency (see, e.g., Hijino 2015; Waseda Daigaku Manifesto Kenkyujo 2014). To tackle these issues, assemblies in municipalities and prefectures have undertaken various local-­level initiatives to improve their operations, albeit without clear improvements (Hijino 2015, 75–78). The central government has also legislated minor changes to local government law aimed at improving the performance of local assemblies. More recently, in 2017 and 2018, two substantial government-­commissioned proposals on reforming local assemblies were published. These sought to make assemblies more “sustainable” and provide greater “effective representative choice” to voters. Proposals included the option for larger cities and prefectures to adopt proportional representation-­based electoral systems to encourage more party-­driven and programmatic competition. For smaller-­ sized municipalities, two options were proposed: (1)  professionalize the assembly by reducing the number of elected members to a ­handful (around five) of full-­time politicians, or (2) lower barriers for participation and expand the size of the assembly with part-­time members on lower remuneration.

154   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino If adopted, the impact on multilevel dynamics and partisan competition is expected to be considerable, with the potential of generating greater partisan and policy competition locally.

Conclusion What sort of local autonomy, influence, and democracy does Japan’s local government system provide? The chapter’s wide-­ranging survey suggests some general propositions. First, Japanese local government is significant in scale and indispensable to the administration of the Japanese state. Decentralization reforms have further expanded local responsibilities while minimizing interventions from the central government. Second, Japanese local governments continue to have a significant impact on the national arena, both electorally and policy-­wise. The ruling conservative party’s historical predominance and opposition parties’ ongoing weakness have, in large part, been based on the existence (or lack of existence) of a support network of affiliated local politicians. Local policy innovations in a wide range of areas have been co-­opted nationally, while local lobbying and opposition pressures have induced central governments to respond to local interests. Historically, intraparty political channels and local opposition pressures have been effective in reflecting local interests in national policy. Yet these channels have been eroded, at least within the LDP, through a decoupling within the party organization following electoral and decentralization reform. The emergence of national parties representing territorial interests, such as the JIP from Osaka, however, may serve as a new route for local influence on the center. Third, aside from some exceptional periods and limited regions, local government representation has not been driven by partisan or programmatic competition. Municipalities, aside from the largest cities, are dominated by nonpartisans (often affiliated with the conservatives), while prefectures, once again aside from urban ones, are dominated by the conservatives. Historically, these local politicians played an important role as “pipelines” linking the localities to the central government, but this is decreasingly the case following decentralization and municipal mergers. Local voters are demanding more out of their representatives who have lost their clientelist role. These local assembly members are expected to play a different, more proactive role as communities face increasingly competitive environments, fiscal constraints, and pressures to innovate. As more reform-­minded governors and mayors emerge pushing for change, legislatures are seen to be dragging their feet. Momentum for substantial institutional reform of local legislatures, as evidenced by recent government-­commissioned reports, is growing, which may lead to more partisan and programmatic competition locally. Competitive local executive elections and local referenda still generate considerable excitement and national media coverage. In recent years, an increasing number of former parliamentarians and other new talent have chosen to become gubernatorial

Local Government in Japan   155 and mayoral candidates. New regional parties have been launched locally and nationally. These are all sign of growing local political entrepreneurship responding to decentralization, and a potential for change generated at the local level.

Notes 1. OECD Fiscal Decentralization Database, Tax autonomy indicators, 2014 data. https:// www.oecd.org/tax/fiscal-­decentralisation-­database.htm#A_Title. 2. OECD Regions at a Glance 2016. oecd.org/regional/oecd-­ regions-­ at-­ a-­ glance­19990057.htm. 3. Chihō Rokudantai Chihō Bunken Kaikaku Suishin Hombu, “Gimuzuke/wakuzuke ni ­kansuru shishō jirei no chōsa kekka gaiyō.” http://www.bunken.nga.gr.jp/data/shishoujirei -chousa/290303-­1.pdf. National Governors’ Association, “Chihō bunken kaikaku suishin ni tsuite,” October 2018. http://www.nga.gr.jp/ikkrwebBrowse/material/files/group/ 2/20181013-­04shiryou.pdf. 4. Cabinet Office, “Chihō bunken kaikaku jirei 100,” 2014. https://www.cao.go.jp/bunken -suishin/doc/jirei100_01.pdf. 5. Partisanship in cities varies with population size: 80 percent of candidates for municipalities larger than 500,000 residents, and 22 percent of candidates for municipalities smaller than 50,000, are partisan.

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156   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino Hijino, Ken  V.  L. 2014. “Intra-party Conflicts over Gubernatorial Campaigns in Japan: Delegation or Franchise?” Party Politics 20, no. 1: 78–88. Hijino, Ken  V.  L. 2015. Nihon no rōkaru demokurashii [Japan’s local democracy]. Tokyo: Ashi Shobo. Hijino, Ken V. L. 2016a. “Regional Inequality in 2014: Urgent Issue, Tepid Election.” In Japan Decides 2014: The Japanese General Election, edited by Robert Pekkanen, Ethan Scheiner, and Steven Reed, 183–198. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Hijino, Ken V. L. 2016b. “Selling the Idea of Local Power: Decentralization Reforms since the 1990s.” In Power in Contemporary Japan, edited by Gill Steel, 219–238. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Hijino, Ken  V.  L. 2017. Local Politics and National Policy: Multi-level Conflicts in Japan and Beyond. London: Routledge. Horiuchi, Yusaku, Jun Saito, and Kyohei Yamada. 2015. “Removing Boundaries, Losing Connections: Electoral Consequences of Local Government Reform in Japan.” Journal of East Asian Studies 15, no. 1: 99–125. Masuda, Hiroya. 2014. Chihō shōmetsu: Tokyo ikkyoku shūchū ga maneku jinkō kyūgen [The extinction of regions: Population collapse caused by unipolar centralization in Tokyo]. Tokyo: Chuokoronsha. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. 2017. Chihō gikai giin ni kansuru kenkyūkai hōkokusho—Sanko shiryō [Report by study group on local assemblies and assembly members—Reference materials]. Tokyo: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_sosiki/kenkyu/c-gikai_giin_kenkyu/index.html. Mochida, Nobuyuki. 2008. Fiscal Decentralization and Local Public Finance in Japan. London: Routledge. Mochida, Nobuyuki. 2013. Chihō zaiseiron [Local public finance theory]. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppankai. Muramatsu, Michio. 1988. Chihō jichi [Local autonomy]. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppankai. Muramatsu, Michio. 2010. Seikan sukuramugata riidāshippu no hōkai [The collapse of politico-bureaucratic scrum-style leadership]. Tokyo: Toyo Keizai Shimposha. Nakakita, Koji. 2017. Jiminto: “Ikkyo” no Jitsuzo [Liberal Democratic Party: The real state of unopposed party]. Tokyo: Chuo Koron Shinsha. Nakamura, Akira. 2016. Chihō gikainin no chōsen [The challenge of local assembly members]. Tokyo: Gyosei. Narumi, Masayasu. 1994. Chihō bunken no shisō: Jichitaikaikaku no kijuku to tenbō [The ideology of decentralization: The trajectory and future of local government reform]. Tokyo: Gakuyo Shobo. Nishio, Masaru. 2007. Chihō bunken kaikaku [Decentralization reform]. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Suppankai. Noble, Gregory W. 2010. “The Decline of Particularism in Japanese Politics.” Journal of East Asian Studies 10, no. 2: 239–274. Okada, Ichiro. 2016. Kakushin jichitai: nekkyō to zasetsu ni nani wo manabuka [Progressive local government: What to learn from their passion and failure]. Tokyo: Chuokoronsha. Pekkanen, Robert J., and Steven R. Reed. 2016 “From Third Force to Third Party: Duverger’s Revenge?” In Japan Decides 2014: The Japanese General Election, edited by Robert Pekkanen, Ethan Scheiner, and Steven Reed, 62–71. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Reed, Steven  R. 1986. Japanese Prefectures and Policymaking. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.

Local Government in Japan   157 Saito, Jun, and Yamada, Kyohei. 2011. “Local Government in Japan.” In The Routledge Handbook of Japanese Politics, edited by Alisa Gaunder, 119–130. London: Routledge. Samuels, Richard  J. 1984. The Politics of Regional Policy in Japan: Localities Incorporated? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Scheiner, Ethan. 2006. Democracy without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in a OneParty Dominant State. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Soga, Kengo. 2019. Nihon no chihō seifu [Japan’s local government]. Tokyo: Chuo Koronsha. Soga, Kengo, and Satoshi Machidori. 2007. Nihon no chihō seiji—Nigen daihyōsei seifu no seisaku sentaku [Local politics in Japan: Policy choices in presidential systems]. Nagoya: Nagoya Daigaku Shuppan. Steiner, Kurt. 1965. Local Government in Japan. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Steiner, Kurt, Ellis S. Krauss, and Scott E. Flanagan, eds. 1980. Political Opposition and Local Politics in Japan. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Sunahara, Yosuke. 2011a. “Chihō he no michi” [The path to the regions]. Nenpo seijigaku 62, no. 2: 98–121. Sunahara, Yosuke. 2011b. Chihō seifu no minshu shugi: Zaigen shigen no seiyaku to chihō seifu no seisaku sentaku [Local government and democracy: Restrictions on fiscal resources and local government policy choice]. Tokyo: Yuhikaku. Sunahara, Yosuke. 2017. Bunretsu to tōgō no nihon seiji [Japanese politics of fragmentation and unification]. Tokyo: Chikura Shobo. Sunahara, Yosuke, and Ken Hijino. 2013. “Chihō seitō no taitō to chihō giin kōhosha no senkyo senryaku: Chihō gikai giin senkyo kōhō no bunseki kara” [The rise of local parties and the electoral strategy of local assembly candidates: An analysis of local assembly manifestos]. Leviathan 53: 95–116. Tatebayashi, Masahiko, ed. 2013. Seitō soshiki no seijigaku [The politics of party organizations]. Tokyo: Toyokeizai Shimbunsha. Tatebayashi, Masahiko. 2017. Seitōsoseji no seido bunseki [An institutional analysis of party politics]. Tokyo: Chikura Shobo. Tsuji, Akira. 2010. “Nihon no chijisenkyo ni miru seitō no chihō chuō kankei” [Local-center intraparty relations as seen in Japanese gubernatorial elections]. Senkyo kenkyu—Nihon senkyo gakkai nenpou 26, no. 1: 38–53. Tsuji, Akira. 2016. Sengo nihon no chihōseijiron: Nigendaihyōsei no rittai bunseki [Local political theory in postwar Japan: A three-dimensional analysis of the dual representation system].Tokyo: Bokutakusha. Tsuji, Seimei. 1976. Nihon no chiho jichi [Japan’s local autonomy]. Tokyo: Iwanami shoten. Uekami, Takayoshi. 2008. “Seikai saihen to chihō seiji: Iwateken kamaishi shigikai wo jirei toshite” [Political realignment and local politics: A case study of Kamaishi city assembly in Iwate prefecture]. Shakai kagaku kenkyu 59, no. 3: 39–80. Uekami, Takayoshi. 2013. Seitō seiji to fukinitsuna senkyo seido: Kokusei, chihō seiji, tōshu  ­senshutsu katei. [Party politics and the asymmetric electoral system: National politics, local politics, and party leadership selection process]. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppankai. Waseda Daigaku Manifesto Kenkyujo. 2014. “Chihō gikai wa yūkensha ni dono yō ni mirareteirunoka” [How are local assemblies viewed by voters?]. Accessed April 8, 2019. http://www .maniken.jp/gikai/date/140807LMresearch_PR.pdf. Winkler, Christian G., and Ken Hijino. 2018. “Party Ideologies and Regional Inequality: An Analysis of Party Manifestos in Japan.” Asian Studies Review 42, no. 4: 586–606.

158   Ken Victor Leonard Hijino Yamada, Kyohei. 2010. “Geographic Income Distribution and the LDP.” Paper presented at the Conference on Japanese Political Economy (Tokyo: Institute for Social Science, University of Tokyo), August 2010. Yamada, Masahiro. 2007. “Hoshu shihai to giinkan kankei: Chōnai 2ha tairitsu no jirei kenkyū” [Conservative dominance and inter-legislator relations: A case study of two opposing factions in a village]. Shakai Kagaku Kenkyu 58, no. 5–6: 49–66. Yamashita, Yusuke, and Toshiyuki Kanai. 2015. Chihō sōsei no shōtai: Naze chiiki seisaku wa shippai surunoka [The truth of creating regions: Why local policies fail]. Tokyo: Chikuma Shinsho.

Pa rt I I

P OL I T IC A L PA RT I E S A N D C OA L I T IONS

chapter 9

Ja pa n ’s Liber a l Democr atic Pa rt y Changes in Party Organization under Shinzō Abe Kuniaki Nemoto

This chapter reviews how Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was traditionally organized and how it is transforming itself (or not). In assessing how the old LDP and the new LDP differ, among many factors that could affect party organization, I focus on electoral systems.1 As discussed throughout this volume, the lower house of the Japanese Diet, the House of Representatives (HR), changed its electoral system from single non-­transferable voting (SNTV) to a mixed-­member majoritarian (MMM) system in 1993–1994. An electoral system least preferred by experts (Bowler et al. 2005), SNTV is notorious for its tendency to generate intraparty fragmentation and personalism (Shugart 2001). The literature abounds with reports of how Japan’s old electoral system was associated with the LDP’s factionalism, clientelism, and corruption (Fukui 1970; Kohno 1997; Ramseyer and Rosenbluth 1993; Thayer 1969). A combination of single-­member districts on the nominal component and proportional representation on the list component, the new MMM system should in theory  eliminate factionalism, clientelism, and corruption. As I comprehensively ­ reviewed the literature elsewhere (Nemoto 2018), the recent literature reaches more or less similar conclusions in general: Japan’s elections are now marked by policy-­based competition, and parties are more programmatic than in the past (Carlson and Reed 2018; Krauss and Pekkanen 2010; Noble 2010; Rosenbluth and Thies 2010). However, studies on the earlier post-­reform period tended to emphasize that some old practices within the LDP would die hard (Christensen 1994, 2006; Cox et al. 1999; George Mulgan 2002, 2003; Krauss and Pekkanen 2004; Park 2001; Scheiner 2008). I do NOT suggest the claims and predictions made by the earlier studies were proved wrong.

162   Kuniaki Nemoto Rather, I DO suggest that a transition from the old LDP to the new LDP may take some time, and I discuss why in this chapter. This chapter focuses on the proximal and distal effects of electoral systems (Rae 1971). Proximal effects are based on a direct link between electoral systems and their political consequences, such as the mechanical effect of Duverger’s law: small parties have difficulties in winning single-­member districts because only parties large enough to win a plurality of the votes can win seats (Duverger 1959). On the other hand, distal effects refer to more indirect effects, such as the psychological effect of Duverger’s law: voters avoid voting for losing candidates, making it more difficult for small parties to mobilize votes. It is more distal and indirect, in that it requires several assumptions, including that voters need to know who is losing before making voting decisions (Cox 1997). This distinction between proximal and distal effects should be helpful in understanding how a party faces challenges arising from electoral systems and how it tries to overcome those challenges. For instance, SNTV was associated with the LDP’s intraparty fragmentation and personalism, because co-­partisan candidates in the same district had to compete with each other. In order to contain these proximal effects of SNTV and maintain party unity, the leadership in the LDP gradually developed internal party rules so that factions would receive equal office benefits and members would enjoy equal access to pork-­barrel benefits (Nemoto, Krauss, and Pekkanen 2008; Reed 2011). In other words, the old LDP’s party organization practices—proportional posts allocation to factions and the unanimous policymaking norm—indirectly emerged as the distal effects of SNTV. Born as the distal effects of SNTV, these rules may not necessarily be incompatible with the new system. However, there should be more efficient ways to organize a party, now that the government’s national-­ in-­ scope policymaking performance is more important under the new system. As to posts allocation, rather than listening to factions’ demands for posts, it should be more efficient for the leadership to pick up able and loyal agents. As to policymaking, rather than incorporating backbenchers’ requests for pork-­ barrel benefits, it should be more efficient for the leadership to impose programmatic policy in a top-­down manner. In fact, this is what seemed to be taking place under the  Koizumi administration from 2001, and the trend continued through the Abe administration from 2012, as anecdotal evidence suggests. This article evaluates these predictions by shedding some new light on the LDP after the 2012 election and how it compares to the traditional LDP. In 2012 the LDP was back in power and Shinzō Abe, who had been the prime minister from 2006 to 2007, took office again. Abe in 2012–2020 was remarkably different from Abe in 2006–2007 in that, unlike many other Japanese prime ministers (including himself in the past), his administration appeared to be so stable. Although he chose to voluntarily step down due to health reasons in August 2020, Abe became the country’s longest-­serving prime minister on November 20, 2019, having served for a total of 2,887 days. His new LDP won national elections six times (the lower house elections in 2012, 2014, and 2017, and the upper house elections in 2013, 2016, and 2019). Now that more than eight years have passed since Abe’s second administration started, it should be the time to critically

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party   163 assess whether his seeming success can be attributed to his adaptation to the new electoral environment or to his use of traditional, pre-­reform governing styles. This article chooses to focus on two of the LDP’s institutions: factions and the ­policymaking process through the Policy Affairs Research Council (PARC). This is because, first, these were seen as the most important, entrenched institutions in the LDP  (Campbell  1977; Cox and Rosenbluth  1993,  1996; Curtis  1988; Fukui  1970; Kohno 1992, 1997; Krauss and Pekkanen 2004, 2010; Ramseyer and Rosenbluth 1993; Schoppa 1991; Thayer 1969), but very little attention is paid to the recent developments in Abe’s second administration, except only a few analyses (George Mulgan  2016; Maclachlan and Shimizu 2016; Takenaka 2019; Terada 2015, 2019). The second reason is that there are prominent articles and books on other issues, such as LDP members’ incumbency advantage and personal vote (Adams et al.  2016; McElwain  2012; Reed et al. 2012), the LDP’s emphasis on programmatic policy issues (Catalinac 2016a, 2016b; Noble  2010; Winkler  2014), and the LDP’s candidate selection process (Smith  2018; Smith and Tsutsumi 2016; Yu et al. 2014). In addition, there is a very useful Japan Decides post-­election analysis series (Pekkanen, Reed, and Scheiner  2013,  2016; Pekkanen et al. 2018). Interested readers should consult these studies.

The Old LDP Under SNTV, each district elects more than one candidate, while a voter votes for only one candidate. Thus, a majority-­seeking party has to nominate more than one candidate in the same district, but unlike the system used in Australia and Ireland, a vote cannot be transferred to other candidates. The result is intraparty competition among co-­partisan candidates. In order to differentiate themselves, candidates have to rely on their own name recognition and thus seek clientelistic benefits for their constituents. Party labels become unreliable, so support from factions becomes crucial. These theoretical expectations are highly consonant with, or probably inductively derived from, the experience of Japan’s LDP. Members resorted to factionalism and clientelism (Fukui  1970; Kohno 1997; Ramseyer and Rosenbluth 1993; Thayer 1969). Since clientelism and costly competition with co-­partisan candidates became the seedbed for corruption (Carlson and Reed 2018; Nyblade and Reed 2008; Reed 1996), a series of corruption scandals ensued from the 1970s, eventually calling for electoral reform (Reed and Thies 2001). Let us look more closely at factions and the policymaking process under the old LDP.

Factions The LDP was once referred to as a “coalition of factions,” rather than a unified party (Leiserson 1968; Scalapino and Masumi 1962). This is because factions in the LDP were not simply intraparty groups as can be seen in the UK, Germany, or elsewhere, but

164   Kuniaki Nemoto highly autonomous groups with their own hierarchical organization and offices outside the party headquarters. In contrast to the LDP itself, factions within the LDP were very cohesive with loyal members, since sometimes factions en masse toed the line to s­ upport a vote of no confidence against their own prime ministers, as occurred in 1980 and 1993. Why factions formed and operated as autonomous organizations can be understood in terms of benefits to their members and benefits to their bosses, with benefits to factional members including money, nominations, and posts. First, factional leaders provided monetary and organizational support to candidates, because SNTV made the LDP’s label obsolete, and because maintaining and developing personal vote mobilization networks required the huge sum of money. Although it would be very difficult to know the exact figure, the media reported that junior members annually spent, on average, 110 million yen in the late 1980s and 20 percent of the revenues came from factions (Asahi Shimbun 1989a, 1989b), or tens of millions of yen (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2015c). The second benefit from factions to their members was nominations. While incumbents were fairly automatically given nominations, whether to give nominations to non-­incumbent candidates was always a headache for the party leadership, because the party needed to nominate the optimal number of candidates to avoid the problems of over-­nominations (Nemoto, Pekkanen, and Krauss 2014). Thus, the LDP determined nominations for new and non-­incumbent candidates based on factional negotiations inside the Electoral Strategy Committee (Senkyo Taisaku Iinkai) (Cox and Rosenbluth 1994). Although conservative independents, or Liberal Democratic Independents (LDIs), routinely ran and won without LDP nominations (Nemoto et al.  2014; Reed 2009), nominations were still said to worth about 10,000 votes (Thayer 1969). The third benefit from factions to their members pertained to posts in the government and the party. In the 1950s and 1960s, mainstream factions, or factions that supported the LDP presidential election winners, tended to receive valuable posts in the cabinet, such as ministers of finance, trade and industry, agriculture, transportation, and construction (Leiserson 1968). But the factional balance (habatsu kinkō) norm was established gradually by the 1970s; according to this norm, posts should be allocated in proportion to factions’ sizes, in order to contain factions’ revolts and threats to defect (Nemoto et al. 2008). In determining who should assume which positions, factional bosses sent in recommendation lists (suisen risuto) of potential ministers to the prime minister and the secretary-­general, and posts were then determined fairly automatically. The norm became so entrenched that the prime minister had discretion over only one or two posts in the cabinet (sōsaiwaku). Bosses benefited from faction members in the times of presidential elections. Since the LDP almost always had a single-­party majority in the HR, winning the party’s presidential elections necessarily meant winning the prime ministership. The LDP’s presidential elections were selected by Diet members and local delegates, but before 2013 only Diet members were able to participate in a majority runoff. Hence prime ministerial aspirants needed to secure as many loyal Diet members as possible (Nemoto

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party   165 et al. 2014), leading to the more and more exclusive, hierarchical, and autonomous organization of factions.

The Policymaking Process Major policymaking in the LDP took place in its organ, the PARC, which was divided into seventeen subdivisions (bukai), each roughly corresponding to a government ministry. There are three important features of the policymaking process in the PARC under SNTV. First, members tried to specialize in certain policy areas rather than ­developing their general policy skills, because under SNTV a candidate was able to win  a seat by concentrating his or her campaign efforts on only a portion of the ­constituents.2 Specialization was also useful in dividing the vote, since candidates needed to differentiate themselves from other co-­partisan members in the same district. Specialization was achieved through participation in intensive study sessions held in PARC subdivisions (Schoppa 1991), and members in the same district avoided overlaps (McCubbins and Rosenbluth 1995). The three most popular policy areas were agriculture, construction, and industry, because they were associated with particularistic ­benefits to local districts (Ramseyer and Rosenbluth 1993). Highly specialized members with significant influence over policy were called “policy tribes” (zoku giin). The second characteristic was the bottom-­up, decentralized policymaking process, bolstered by two norms: first, any decision had to be approved by consensus (zenkai icchi); and second, the government required prior approval from the LDP before submitting its legislation (jizen shinsa sei). Somewhat resembling the practice of “logrolling” in the US Congress, these rules were meant to make sure that co-­partisan members in the same district would be able to divide the vote efficiently, by allowing specialized policy tribes to exert their influence over the budget and policy. What emerged was a clientelistic system, whereby politicians in the LDP made use of the centralized fiscal system to bring back particularistic benefits to their districts ­ (Scheiner 2005, 2006). The third characteristic was the flip side of the second: the policymaking process was fairly decentralized to the extent that the prime minister’s influence was significantly limited. The policymaking process was dominated by exclusive iron triangles of specialized policy tribes, bureaucrats, and interest groups like farmers’ associations and the Japan Medical Association, while the leadership’s influence was set aside. Even though the prime minister was equipped with some formal institutional powers, such as the powers to dissolve the HR and appoint ministers, the prime minister was still reactive (Hayao 1993). For instance, in the 1980s Prime Minister Nakasone had to face obstructionist and confrontational policy tribes inside his own party, who were able to halt many of his education reform proposals. As Schoppa (1991, 105) observed, “the rise in zoku influence has made it particularly difficult for the party to achieve substantial policy change.”

166   Kuniaki Nemoto

The New LDP under Abe’s Second Administration Having described the traditional LDP, this section moves on to the new LDP under the new MMM system, particularly under Abe’s second administration (2012–2020). Under the Japanese version of MMM, a voter casts two votes, with one for a candidate running in one of the single-­member districts, and the other for closed-­list proportional representation. Now a party nominates only one candidate in a district, eliminating intraparty competition and the incentive to personally differentiate from other co-­ partisan candidates in the same district. Let us look at how these mechanical changes affect factions and the policymaking process more closely.

Factions To repeat, factions played several roles under the old LDP: they provided money, nominations, and posts to members, while members provided votes in the times of the LDP’s presidential elections. Of these roles, money and nominations should receive direct impact from the electoral reform, because they pertain to the mechanical features of SNTV. No intraparty competition means that dependence on factions for monetary and electoral support should be weaker.3 Meanwhile, the electoral reform might have a more distal impact on factions’ influence over posts. The posts allocation norm only gradually emerged to contain factions’ revolts against the leadership. In addition, regardless of electoral systems, groups in a coalition tend to receive shares proportional to the seats that each contributes to the coalition (Gamson 1961). Thus, the electoral reform should have a weaker impact on posts at first. The literature on the early post-­reform period tended to support this view. Cox et al. (1999, 41) predicted that “Japan’s electoral reform did nothing that directly affects the allocation of posts within parties, so there is no reason to expect any immediate change,” while Krauss and Pekkanen (2004, 17) agreed that “[f]actions have retained their considerable influence over the party and government career paths of their members.” Park (2001, 460) also predicted that “[m]ost Diet seat candidates will join a specific faction before or after a general election,” because of “their continuing importance as pressure groups that can collectively negotiate over and win the candidates posts in the cabinet, the party, and the Diet.” Similarly, Christensen (2006, 511) predicted that “in the post-­Koizumi era, party members will gravitate to former or new organizational principles that would bring internal stability and predictability to advancement processes. This desire might lead to a revival of factional affiliations.” Thus, Park (2001, 429) concluded that “factions survive because they not only satisfy the career incentives of individual politicians, but they also contribute to the effective management of the party as an organization.”

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party   167 But it is also expected that the reform to MMM should eventually have some impact on the posts allocation norm as well. This is because, now that the government’s policymaking performance and the party’s national-­in-­scope image are more important under the new system than in the past, the prime minister should have a stronger incentive to pick up able and loyal ministers independently from factions’ demands. Listening to factions’ demands for posts and allocating posts in proportion to their seats may not be incompatible with the new system, but should be inefficient. Although providing systematic evidence is out of the scope of this review chapter, partial evidence seems to be consistent with these theoretical expectations. As to posts allocation in Abe’s second administration, the leadership made it clear that it would not receive factions’ recommendation lists of potential ministers. Instead, it bypassed factions, reached out to individual backbenchers, and let them submit reports about which positions they would like. As many as 93 percent of the members submitted their reports (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2013f). In appointing vice ministers, rather than simply rotating posts, the leadership appeared to favor former parliamentary secretaries, so that they could effectively lead ministries and respond to the opposition’s questions in the Diet (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2013a). One side effect, though, is that because ministers are now selected or retained if they are able to show good performance or loyalty, many members are left unpromoted despite their seniority. Under the traditional seniority-­based system, a member was fairly automatically promoted to a minister in his or her fifth or sixth term (Kohno 1992, 1997). Before the Koizumi cabinet, after six or more terms, almost all LDP members served at least once as ministers, but under Abe’s second administration, 30 to 40 percent of such members were without ministerial experience (Takenaka 2019). Data suggest a deviation from the norm of proportional posts allocation has become normal since the electoral reform. Figure 9.1 shows the Gallagher Index of Proportionality between factions’ seat shares in the LDP and in the cabinet over time (Gallagher 1991).4 As shown in this figure, the deviation appears to have started during the Murayama and Hashimoto cabinets, the very first cabinets after the electoral reform bill was enacted. Although there have been some ups and downs, proportionality never returned to the levels of the average pre-­reform cabinet after the second Mori cabinet that formed in 2000. The flip side is that it appears to be increasingly difficult for factional bosses to maintain the unity of their members, since bosses now have less to offer to their members. Some factional bosses complained about the leadership’s new practice of bypassing their recommendations (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2013a) and even told their members not to submit their individual requests to the leadership, but to no avail (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2013f). According to some factional bosses, “the cabinet reshuffle season is always the most depressing time” (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2018d). The above anecdotal evidence suggests that factions should be less attractive now. Figure 9.2 shows the percentage of LDP members associated with none of the factions within the party and the cabinet. The figure suggests that during the pre-­reform period relatively fewer members belonged to none of the factions, probably because nonfaction members relatively rarely assumed cabinet posts. This trend seems to have disappeared

Ohira 2 Suzuki 1 Suzuki 1 Re Nakasone 1 Nakasone 2 Nakasone 2 Re Nakasone 2 Re 2 Nakasone 3 Takeshita 1 Takeshita 1 Re Uno 1 Kaifu 1 Kaifu 2 Kaifu 2 Re Miyazawa 1 Miyazawa 1 Re Murayama 1 Murayama 1 Re Hashimoto 1 Hashimoto 2 Hashimoto 2 Re Obuchi 1 Obuchi 1 Re Obuchi 1 Re 2 Mori 2 Mori 2 Re Koizumi 1 Koizumi 1 Re Koizumi 1 Re 2 Koizumi 2 Re Koizumi 3 Re Abe 1 Abe 1 Re / Fukuda 1 Fukuda 1 Re / Asoh 1 Abe 2 Abe 2 Re Abe 3 Abe 3 Re Abe 3 Re 2 Abe 3 Re 3 Abe 4 Abe 4 Re Abe 4 Re 2

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0.30 Ohira 2 Suzuki 1 Suzuki 1 Re Nakasone 1 Nakasone 2 Nakasone 2 Re Nakasone 2 Re 2 Nakasone 3 Takeshita 1 Takeshita 1 Re Uno 1 Kaifu 1 Kaifu 2 Kaifu 2 Re Miyazawa 1 Miyazawa 1 Re Murayama 1 Murayama 1 Re Hashimoto 1 Hashimoto 2 Hashimoto 2 Re Obuchi 1 Obuchi 1 Re Obuchi 1 Re 2 Mori 2 Mori 2 Re Koizumi 1 Koizumi 1 Re Koizumi 1 Re 2 Koizumi 2 Re Koizumi 3 Re Abe 1 Abe 1 Re / Fukuda 1 Fukuda 1 Re / Asoh 1 Abe 2 Abe 2 Re Abe 3 Abe 3 Re Abe 3 Re 2 Abe 3 Re 3 Abe 4 Abe 4 Re Abe 4 Re 2

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168   Kuniaki Nemoto

Pre-reform Mean = 0.08

Post-reform Mean = 0.12

Figure 9.1.  Disproportionality between factions’ seat shares in the LDP and in the cabinet over time.

Non-faction Members in the LDP Non-faction Members in the Cabinet

Figure 9.2.  Nonfaction members in the LDP and in the cabinet over time.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party   169 after the reform, especially after the Koizumi cabinet. Under Abe’s second administration, on average, 20 percent of the members are nonfaction members and 20–30 percent of the ministers are nonfaction members. Thus, joining a faction may not be a huge advantage now, as statistically confirmed by Pekkanen et al. (2014). After the 2012 and 2014 elections, the largest group inside the LDP in fact comprised those affiliated with none of the factions (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2014b). Turning our attention to the other functions of factions—money, nominations, and headcounts in the presidential elections—recent anecdotal evidence on Abe’s second administration confirms the literature’s finding that they got weakened after the reform, and the trend seems to continue. As to money, the party leadership now has more power to mobilize and allocate money, thanks to new legislation enacted in 1994 together with the electoral reform. Firstly, the new legislation in 1994 requires the government to allocate taxpayers’ money to parties as subsidies (seito josei kin).5 Except for the Japan Communist Party, parties are heavily dependent on the subsidies. In 2015, 2016, and 2017, for instance, 66.2 percent, 72.3 percent, and 68.1 percent of the LDP’s revenues, respectively, came from the subsidies (Nihon Keizai Shimbun  2016a,  2017e,  2018b). Secondly, the new legislation requires the disclosure of the names of all donors who contribute more than 50,000 yen and bans private companies’ and interest groups’ donations to individual politicians (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2017c). Factions’ informal fundraising capacities were thus curtailed by these measures. For instance, the Abe faction in the 1980s—a faction led by the father of Shinzō Abe, Shintarō Abe—used to control 2.5 billion yen in its heyday, but its lineage faction, the Hosoda faction, now only controls 200 million yen (Nihon Keizai Shimbun  2015a). The money members now receive from factions is only 10 percent of what they received in the past (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2015c). As to nominations, anecdotal evidence suggests that the powers to (de)nominate candidates are increasingly concentrated in the hands of the leadership. The media reports that in the 2014 HR election, the leadership did not nominate three incumbents because they showed weak performance (Nihon Keizai Shimbun  2015a). “Out of the mouth comes evil” (mono ieba kuchibiru samushi) was a shared feeling among LDP members, when it was rumored that the leadership would not give a nomination to one of its veteran members who questioned the leadership’s plans to increase the consumption tax and dissolve the HR (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2016d, 2016d). Some members lament that diversity within the party is gone as a consequence of these changes (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2014c), although LDP members widely recognize that it is still better to have an authoritarian but popular leader, who would improve the possibility of maintaining their seats at any rate (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2017a).6 The way the LDP’s president is selected has changed since the inauguration of Abe’s second administration, so that factions’ influence can be limited. Traditionally, to repeat, Diet members, and thus factions, had more say in selecting the party president: in the first round, Diet members and local delegates cast votes, with Diet members having more voting powers; and if there was no majority winner in the first round, a second runoff round was held, in which only Diet members participated. But now, some modifications to the leadership selection rules have been added, so that a leader who is

170   Kuniaki Nemoto widely popular among citizens can be selected and retained, independently from factional influence. First, local delegates’ voting powers were gradually expanded in the post-­reform period, from 47 to 141 in 2001, to 300 in 2009, and then to 405 in 2018 (Nihon Keizai Shimbun  2013e). Second, in 2013 the party’s Headquarters for Party and  Political System Reform Implementation (To Seiji Seido Kaikaku Jikko Honbu) decided to allow grass-­roots party members to participate in the runoff stage (Yomiuri Shimbun 2013). Third, the voting age of local delegates was reduced from twenty to eighteen in 2018 (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2018a). Fourth, in 2016 the term limit of the party president was changed from six years over two terms to nine years over three terms (Nihon Keizai Shimbun  2016b), with Secretary-­General Toshishiro Nikai even talking about a further change to twelve years over four terms (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2019), although the change was never implemented before Abe resigned. All in all, at least partial evidence presented in this subsection tentatively suggests that the traditional functions of factions in the LDP were further undermined during the era of Abe’s second administration. At first, some literature on the earlier post-­ reform period predicted that the electoral reform might affect only the election-­related functions—money and nominations—while factions would survive with their posts-­ related function kept somehow intact. But even in the areas of posts allocation, factions’ influence now appears to be weaker. This time lag in the electoral reform’s effect might be, I argue, explained in terms of the proximal and distal effects of electoral systems. Originally born as the distal effect of SNTV, the posts-­related function of factions was not necessarily incompatible with the new MMM system, but it turned out to be inefficient. Before concluding this subsection, it is important to note that this is still a tentative conclusion. Factions still exist. They try to invite newcomers to the Diet after every election (Nihon Keizai Shimbun  2013b). One of the LDP presidential aspirants, Shigeru Ishiba, launched his faction in 2015 with twenty members, with an eye toward running in the presidential election (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2015b). In the LDP presidential elections held in 2015 and 2018, Abe tried to forge the image of an invincible leader supported by a wide range of factions, collecting endorsing signatures from all or most of the factions (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2015d, 2018c).7 As Abe announced his retirement in August 2020, factions started to engage in backroom wheeling and dealing, while the leadership decided that voting in the presidential election will be limited to Diet members, effectively denying rank-­and-­file members the chance to choose a publicly popular leader (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2020). These look a little puzzling in light of the declining importance of factions during the era of Abe’s second administration, so, as mentioned in the concluding section, more empirical research on why still factions exist is now needed.

The Policymaking Process To repeat, the policymaking process within the old LDP through PARC featured three characteristics: specialization, consensus and clientelism, and the weak leadership. Of

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party   171 these features, the incentive to specialize should be the most proximal effect of the previous electoral system. As Krauss and Pekkanen (2004) corroborated with interviews, concentrating on only a portion of the constituents would be harmful, because now a candidate needs to win 50 percent of the votes to guarantee his or her own electoral victory. Rather, an incumbent would like to be a policy generalist, widely covering various policy issues, including some public-­policy issue areas like security and welfare. Meanwhile, the electoral reform may not eliminate the other old practices overnight. To repeat, these practices gradually formed as the distal effects of SNTV: the LDP had to offer tools for members to efficiently divide the vote in the same district. In addition, theoretically, they may not be incompatible with the new MMM system. How legislators logroll their different particularistic interests and bring back pork-­barrel benefits to their districts is a recurrent theme in a single-­member district system like that in the US at any rate. Thus, the literature predicted that the unanimity norm, clientelism, and the weak policymaking leadership would not disappear soon. Looking at the Koizumi administration, George Mulgan (2002, 137) observed that “individual LDP Diet members acting on behalf of supporting interests block those reform proposals that directly attack the vested interests of their supporters before they even reach the Diet or can be submitted for Cabinet approval.” Scheiner (2008, 171) stated that “many critics of SNTV/MMD in Japan sought to replace the system in the hopes of eliminating the clientelistic system that led to wasteful spending and corruption, but there was reason to think that change was not likely,” thanks to the centralized fiscal system. Christensen (2006, 511) concurred: “The government will still make allocations for infrastructure projects. The ­possibilities will remain for directing that spending in partisan or district-­specific ­directions.” This consensus-­based clientelistic system was called “Un-­Westminster”: “The role of the Japanese prime minister in this system has not been to lead and impose his will on the party and the government, but to articulate the agreed consensus reached in party-­bureaucratic negotiations. He has exercised weak powers of policy direction and leadership” (George Mulgan 2003, 85). However, now that there is no intraparty competition and voters vote for a party across the country, the economy of scale suggests that resorting to clientelism to win seats should be inefficient. Rather, it would be reasonable to expect the kind of reform that took place in England, where a shift to geographically larger single-­member districts eventually called for the centralization of the agenda-­setting powers in the cabinet, which would determine national-­in-­scope public policy that would affect a large swath of the public (Cox 1987). In fact, as of 2004, Krauss and Pekkanen (2004) suggested that even though a stylized, idealistic Westminster system had not emerged in Japan, conflicts were taking place between the LDP’s vested interests and reform-­minded leaders. Still, it may be premature to answer the question of whether the shift to a Westminster-­ like policymaking system is over, or still ongoing, or ever existed. But partial anecdotal evidence from newspaper articles suggests that under Abe’s second administration, the PARC is now more or less a “rubber-­stumping organization for the cabinet” (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019). A buzzword in newspaper articles is now seikō tōtei—literally meaning “government high, party low”—suggesting the ever-­increasing influence of the cabinet

172   Kuniaki Nemoto over the policymaking process. The emergence of this new seikō tōtei policymaking process seems to be based on several trends: the sidelining of PARC subdivisions, the changing behavior of policy tribes, and the leadership’s strong grip over party personnel. First of all, the leadership appears to sideline policy inputs from the PARC’s subdivisions and research committees (chōsakai), while imposing its pet policy initiatives in a top-­down manner. In doing so, the Prime Minister’s Office (Kantei) and the Cabinet Office have been expanded, with various types of special councils newly established under the prime minister’s direct control (Takenaka 2019). Of particular importance is the Headquarters for Japan’s Economic Revitalization (Nihon Keizai Saisei Honbu), which was established based on Abe’s manifesto for the LDP presidential election and the HR election in 2012 (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2012a, 2012b). The Headquarters and its various subcommittees within it, such as the Council for Regulatory Reform (Kisei Kaikaku Kaigi) and the Council for Industrial Competitiveness (Sangyō Kyōsōryoku Kaigi), were intended to formulate policy for Abe’s third arrow of Abenomics, a series of structural reforms designed to boost Japan’s international competitiveness through deregulation. In such policy areas as agriculture, once considered as a sacred area for the LDP, the Headquarters recommended bold reform measures, putting policy tribes on the defensive (George Mulgan 2016; Honma and George Mulgan 2018; Maclachlan and Shimizu 2016; Terada 2015, 2019). PARC subdivisions are not given enough time for discussions (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2013c) and backbenchers complain that their discussions in subdivisions are not incorporated into the budget (Yomiuri Shimbun 2018d), suggesting that the PARC’s inputs on policy may be now quite limited. Sometimes the leadership simply bypasses the party, even though traditionally any government bill had to receive prior approval from the party (Asahi Shimbun  2013c). Some junior backbenchers create their own informal team outside PARC subdivisions to discuss their own policy ideas and to pressure ministers (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019, 4), suggesting that participation in PARC subdivisions may be now considered relatively useless. Second, policy tribes’ behavioral styles seem to have changed. In the past, to repeat, their typical behavioral styles included pressuring and confronting the cabinet and the party leadership to protect the established status quo in their policy sectors. But policy tribes now avoid conflicts with the leadership and instead help the government to promote its regulatory reforms in a more collaborative manner (Yomiuri Shimbun 2014). This change should be caused by the leadership’s effective threat to use its centralized powers for money allocation and candidate nominations. As one veteran LDP member, Seiichirō Murakami, admits, “if an ordinary LDP member defects, he or she will be forced into tough situations within the party in terms of money, nominations, and proportional representation list rankings . . . all the powers including elections and personnel management are now concentrated into the hands of the prime minister. It is very easy to exclude in the elections anyone who does not obey the leadership” (Murakami 2016, 40). Members are well aware of the consequences of defection: Hiroshi Moriyama, an agricultural policy tribe who led the controversial Trans-­Pacific Partnership negotiations, said he wanted to avoid conflicts with the leadership, since he still remembered an event in 2005, when defectors, including Moriyama himself, were expelled from the party and had to compete with the party’s official candidates (Asahi Shimbun 2014).

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party   173 Third, somewhat relatedly, the cabinet now also seems to use its exclusive personnel management powers as carrots. In the past, to repeat, the leadership had little say in personnel management, as it had to succumb to factions’ requests for posts. But now the leadership can select and deselect members for policymaking positions, such as PARC subdivision chairs and ministers, fairly freely from factions’ influence. This means that the leadership can promote those loyal party agents who work hard for the party to get the reform done, even if such agents may or may not be policy tribes with much experience in given policy areas. For instance, Ken Saito, a former bureaucrat from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, was appointed to the agricultural subdivision chair in 2013, even though he had very little experience with agricultural policy and some policy tribes opposed this appointment (Asahi Shimbun 2013b). He was appointed because he was considered reform-­minded and loyal to the cabinet (Asahi Shimbun 2013a; Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2013d). Later, he was appointed as the agricultural minister in 2017, even though he was unusually junior for a minister—he was only in his third term. Another example is Kōya Nishikawa, who was promoted to be agricultural minister in 2014. Even though he was a veteran agricultural policy tribe, he contributed to the smooth dealmaking of the TPP, despite harsh opposition from farmers (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2014a). In sum, the discussions above lead to a tentative conclusion that the policymaking process in Abe’s second administration was different from the past. The PARC now appears to be a “rubber-­stumping organization for the cabinet.” The cabinet, with its powers to set the agenda for bold reform packages, appears to bypass the PARC. Instead of confronting and pressuring the cabinet, policy tribes look more collaborative with the government, partly because of the party leadership’s exclusive powers to allocate money and nominations. The career ladder inside the LDP is also different from the SNTV period, when members accumulated policy knowledge through participation in PARC subdivisions. Now even junior members without substantive policy expertise in given areas may be assigned as PARC subdivision chairs and ministers, as long as they are able to show their loyalty to the leadership. Note that these are still tentative conclusions based on partial anecdotal evidence. One thing that needs noting is that, like factions, the PARC still exists, and it recently stepped up efforts to reform itself, in order to strengthen its policymaking capacities and eventually overcome the seikō tōtei trend.8 Therefore, even though the unanimity norm and clientelism might have been significantly weakened by the leadership, the PARC may still matter somehow. But, unfortunately, very little systematic empirical research has been done on what the PARC really does now.

Conclusion This article has two main purposes. First, it offers a critical meta-­review of the literature on the recent evolution of the LDP’s party organization, focusing on two of the LDP’s most entrenched institutions: factionalism and the policymaking process through the PARC. Although some scholars tended to predict that some of their functions not

174   Kuniaki Nemoto directly related to the electoral reform—such as the posts allocation norm and the decentralized policymaking norm—may not disappear at least for a while, some partial evidence suggests that they seem to be significantly weaker now. I argue that these norms developed to overcome challenges arising from the previous SNTV system, such as factions’ revolts against the leadership and the need to share government spoils. These distal effects of the old system may not be necessarily incompatible with the new party-­ centered system, but in theory they should be inefficient, since the cabinet now needs to appoint able and loyal agents free from factions, and to formulate and implement programmatic public policy in a top-­down manner. Second, in light of the theoretical predictions above, it offers a critical evaluation of the LDP under Abe’s second administration, which is still very much understudied in terms of party organization. A tentative conclusion that can be drawn from anecdotal evidence is that the LDP now looks different from the old LDP before the 1990s. Rather than using traditional, pre-­reform governing styles, Abe’s second administration appeared to be adept at adapting to the new institutional environment. Factions appeared to wield weaker influence over posts allocation. Abe controlled the concentrated powers to give money and nominations to members. With these powers and the newly expanded cabinet, he proposed bold reform measures in a top-­down manner and appointed loyal agents as ministers to get things done, while sidelining the PARC. It is true that his seeming success as the longest-­serving prime minister should be attributed to many other factors, such as the administrative reform that expanded the Prime Minister’s Office and the Cabinet Office (Shinoda 2005; Takenaka 2002, 2019) and opposition fragmentation that contributed to the LDP’s electoral victories (Pekkanen et al. 2013, 2016, 2018). However, Abe’s adaptation to the new electoral environment may be added as one of the key variables to explain the longevity of his rule. Note that changes may still be ongoing. As noted, factions and the PARC still exist. Factional bosses are ambitiously seeking new members. Abe himself consciously built up broad support from a range of factions, perhaps in order to portray himself as an invincible leader. The PARC did not seem to completely give up its role as a monitor over the cabinet. It is still possible that Abe’s second administration is an anomaly, and that the LDP may be back to the traditional LDP, with the return of factions and the PARC. Therefore, what is needed is a systematic empirical analysis of what these organizations really do, what the real incentives for individual backbenchers to join factions are, and how the LDP as a whole gets involved in the policymaking process. A large-­scale data set that comprehensively covers all the members is a very welcome development to the field in that aspect (Smith and Reed 2018). There should be more and more publicly available data sets on cabinet portfolios, committee assignments, and factional affiliations, and scholars need to update them collaboratively after every election as public goods.

Acknowledgments I thank Robert and Saadia Pekkanen for their helpful comments. The remaining errors are mine.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party   175

Notes 1. Other factors should include a series of the administrative reform measures taken in the 1990s and the early 2000s, such as the restructuring of government ministries, the expansion of the Cabinet Office, and the introduction of the British-­style Question Time to the Diet (Shinoda 2005; Takenaka 2002, 2019). There is no doubt these measures significantly expanded the powers of the prime minister, who has usually been the LDP president, compared to the party. However, I still focus on electoral systems in this chapter, partly because much of the existing literature associates the LDP’s party organization with Japan’s old and new electoral systems and partly because the call for the administrative reform could be endogenous to the electoral reform, which was originally meant to bring in a Westminster system. 2. For instance, simple math suggests that 16.7 percent of the vote guarantees a seat where district magnitude is five. 3. Some actually predicted that factions would even retain these features: “It is quite possible that faction leaders will disburse nominations and funds in the name of the party just as they have in the past” (Christensen 1994, 604). 4. Intended to capture the proportionality of an electoral system, the index is usually calculated as share.

1 n 2 (Vi − Si ) , where Vi and Si are a given party’s (i= 1,…n ) vote share and  seat ∑ 2 i =1

5. The total amount is 250 yen per person times the total population, and allocation to each party is based on how many Diet members they have (Carlson 2012). 6. Another innovation bypassing factional influence in terms of fielding candidates is the introduction of open-­recruitment contests (kobo) (Smith 2018; Smith and Tsutsumi 2016; Yu, et al. 2014). After its crashing defeat in 2009, the LDP uses open-­recruitment contests as more systematic requirements in filling up vacant seats. Note that there are some skeptics about open-­recruitment contests. In many cases, contests tend to pick up candidates that look “good”—in other words, candidates with a high level of education, experience of studying abroad, and skilled jobs. But some complain that “candidates elected as such do not meet local politicians, greet supporters, or engage in constituency services” (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2017b). Some of the open-­recruited candidates had to leave the party or even resign from the HR, because of scandals related to extramarital affairs and improper speeches. The media now depicts a group of junior members first elected to the HR in 2012 as “evil second- or third-­graders” (ma no nikaisei or ma no sankaisei) since they worsen the image of the party (Nihon Keizai Shimbun  2017b,  2017d). Thus, in 2018 the leadership announced its plan to revise the open-­recruitment process, so that potential candidates’ skills will be more comprehensively evaluated by policy discussions and speech contests, primaries, and opinion polls (Yomiuri Shimbun 2018a). 7. One of the requirements for presidential candidacy is to collect twenty endorsements from LDP members in the Diet. 8. First, it newly launched a committee dedicated to evaluating the party’s manifestos, so that backbenchers’ voices would be incorporated into manifestos for the next elections. Second, attendance to PARC subdivisions was to be made mandatory, in order to train policy experts who would be able to lead policy proposals (Yomiuri Shimbun 2018b, 2018c). But some LDP members admit the effects will be negligible (Yomiuri Shimbun 2019).

176   Kuniaki Nemoto

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178   Kuniaki Nemoto Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2012b. “Jimin, Shuin Sen no Koyaku Yoshi.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, November 21, 2012, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2013a. “Fuku Daijin Seimukan wo Sasshin, Datsu Habatsu Josei Toyo, Kantei Shudo Apiru, San’in Komei niha Hairyo.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, October 1, 2013, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2013b. “Jimin Kakuha, Tsunahiki ni Nekki, ‘Ishiba Ha’ Dai 3 Gurupu ni, Renraku Kai ga Hatsu Kaigo.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, February 1, 2013, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2013c. “Jimin, Kantei Shudo Senmei ni, Yosan Hensei ha ‘Seiko Totei,’ ‘Tonai Keishi’ Fuman mo.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, January 21, 2013, 2. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2013d. “Jimin Seicho, Yosho ni ‘Kantei Ha’, TPP Nirami ‘Norin Zoku’ Hazusu.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, October 5, 2013, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2013e. “Jimin Sosai Sen no Ruru Henko Matomeru, Tokai Kisaburo Shi.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, December 16, 2013 (evening edition), 9. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2013f. “‘Kaya no Soto’ Aseru Jimin Habatsu, Naikaku Kaizo Miokuri, Deban Nashi, Fuku Daijin Jinji demo Kan’yo Bimyo.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, September 15, 2013, 2. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2014a. “Kenryoku no Kagi 9 Gatsu Kaizo (Ge) mo Kaikaku Kisou.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, August 14, 2014, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2014b. “Saidai Seiryoku Jitsu ha ‘Mu Habatsu,’ Jimin, Raishu Sosai Sen he Sonzai Kan, 120 Nin Cho, Wakate ga Oku.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, August 31, 2014, 5. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2014c. “Tayosei Usureta Jimin no Naijitsu.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, August 17, 2014, 2. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2015a. “Hoshu ha Doko he Jiminto 60 Nen (Jo) ‘Shusho 1 Kyo’ 20 Nen Hete Totatsu.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, November 14, 2015, 1. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2015b. “Ishiba Shi, Posuto Abe he Michi Kewashiku, 20 Nin de Habatsu Hataage, Kantei ha Zokuto Dashin, Tonai niha Hanpatsu mo.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, September 29, 2015, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2015c. “Jimin Habatsu Saron Ka.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, August 30, 2015, 14. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2015d. “Shusho, Jimin Sosai Sen de Zen Habatsu kara Suisennin, Saisen Go Jinji Nirami Omowaku, Noda Shi Nao Iyoku.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, September 4, 2015, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2016a. “15 Nen Seiji Shikin Shushi Hokoku Sho, Seito no Shunyu Kozo, Kokuhi Izon Shinto, Kofukin 58%.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, November 26, 2016, 8. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2016b. “Jimin Sosai ‘3 Ki 9 Nen’ ni Encho Kettei, Tonai Giron Wazuka 1 Kagetsu, Nikai Shi ra, Kaisan Kaze de Iron Fuji.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, October 27, 2016, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2016c. “Kaisan Kaze no Jirenma.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, November 12, 2016, 19. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2016d. “Sho Senkyoku Sei no Kozai Donyu kara 20 Nen (Ge) ‘Gen Seido de Hatsu Tosen’ 8 Wari.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, October 22, 2016, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2017a. “‘Abe 1 Kyo’ Mada Tsuduku?” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, April 3, 2017 (evening edition), 2. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2017b. “Naze Seijika ha Rekka Shita ka.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, August 21, 2017, 7. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2017c. “Seiji Shikin Deta de Miru Seikai.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, February 26, 2017, 12.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party   179 Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2017d. “Seiken ni ‘Chirudoren’ no Jubaku.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, July 14, 2017 (evening edition), 2. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2017e. “16 Nen Seiji Shikin Shushi Hokoku Sho, Kaku To no Shunyu Kozo, Tsuzuku Kokuhi Izon, Kofukin 61%.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, December 1, 2017, 6. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2018a. “Jimin Sosai Sen, Chiho Hyo Sodatsu he Hashiru, Kokuji made 1 Kagetsu, Senkan Hatsu Kaigo, Giin Hyo to Dosu, Eikyoryoku Masu, ‘Fudo Hyo’ Nao Oku.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, August 7, 2018, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2018b. “17 Nen Seiji Shikin Shushi Hokoku Sho, Kaku To, Kofukin Danomi Jotai Ka, Shinto ha Shakunyu Kin mo Kogaku ni.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, December 1, 2018, 8. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2018c. “Shusho ha ‘Chiho Hyo’ Ishiki, Ishiba Shi ‘Hirogari’ Kyocho, Jiminto Sosai Sen no Suisennin.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, September 7, 2018 (evening edition), 3. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2018d. “Taiki Gumi 70 Nin, Shogu ha?” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, September 28, 2018, 4. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2019. “Nikai Shi ‘Abe 4 Sen’ ni Rikai, Jimin Sosai Sen, Tosoku Kaisei nimo Genkyu.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, March 13, 2019, 3. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2020. “Jimin Sosai Sen, Suga Shi Jiku ni Tenkai, Ishiba Kishida Shi ga Shutsuba he, 14 Nichi Tokaihyo de Chosei.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, September 1, 2020, 1. Noble, Gregory W. 2010. “The Decline of Particularism in Japanese Politics.” Journal of East Asian Studies 10: 239–273. Nyblade, Benjamin, and Steven  R.  Reed. 2008. “Who Cheats? Who Loots? Political Competition and Corruption in Japan, 1947–1993.” American Journal of Political Science 52: 926–941. Park, Cheol Hee. 2001. “Factional Dynamics in Japan’s LDP since Political Reform: Continuity and Change.” Asian Survey 41: 428–461. Pekkanen, Robert J., Benjamin Nyblade, and Ellis S. Krauss. 2014. “The Logic of Ministerial Selection: Electoral System and Cabinet Appointments in Japan.” Social Science Japan Journal 17: 3–22. Pekkanen, Robert, Steven R. Reed, and Ethan Scheiner, eds. 2013. Japan Decides 2012. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Pekkanen, Robert J., Steven R. Reed, and Ethan Scheiner, eds. 2016. Japan Decides 2014. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Pekkanen, Robert J., Steven R. Reed, Ethan Scheiner, and Daniel M. Smith, eds. 2018. Japan Decides 2017. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Rae, Douglas. 1971. The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws. 2nd ed. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Ramseyer, J.  Mark, and Frances McCall Rosenbluth. 1993. Japan’s Political Marketplace. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Reed, Steven R. 1996. “Political Corruption in Japan.” International Social Science Journal 48: 395–405. Reed, Steven  R. 2009. “Party Strategy or Candidate Strategy: How Does the LDP Run the Right Number of Candidates in Japan’s Multi-Member Districts?” Party Politics 15: 295–314. Reed, Steven  R. 2011. “The Liberal Democratic Party: An Explanation of Its Successes and Failures.” In The Routledge Handbook of Japanese Politics, edited by Alisa Gaunder, 14–23. London: Routledge.

180   Kuniaki Nemoto Reed, Steven R., and Michael F. Thies. 2001. “The Causes of Electoral Reform in Japan.” In Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?, edited by Matthew Soberg Shugart and Martin P. Wattenberg, 152–172. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Reed, Steven R., Ethan Scheiner, and Michael F. Thies. 2012. “The End of LDP Dominance and the Rise of Party-Oriented Politics in Japan.” Journal of Japanese Studies 38: 353–376. Rosenbluth, Frances McCall, and Michael F. Thies. 2010. Japan Transformed: Political Change and Economic Restructuring. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Scalapino, Robert  A., and Junnosuke Masumi. 1962. Parties and Politics in Contemporary Japan. Berkeley: University of California Press. Scheiner, Ethan. 2005. “Pipelines of Pork: Japanese Politics and a Model of Local Opposition Party Failure.” Comparative Political Studies 38: 799–823. Scheiner, Ethan. 2006. Democracy without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in a OneParty Dominant State. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Scheiner, Ethan. 2008. “Does Electoral System Reform Work?: Electoral System Lessons from Reforms of the 1990s.” Annual Review of Political Science 11: 161–181. Schoppa, Leonard J. 1991. “Zoku Power and LDP Power: A Case Study of the Zoku Role in Education Policy.” Journal of Japanese Studies 17: 79–106. Shinoda, Tomohito. 2005. “Japan’s Cabinet Secretariat and Its Emergence as Core Executive.” Asian Survey 45: 800–821. Shugart, Matthew Soberg. 2001. “Electoral ‘Efficiency’ and the Move to Mixed-Member Systems.” Electoral Studies 20: 173–193. Smith, Daniel  M. 2018. Dynasties and Democracy: The Inherited Incumbency Advantage in Japan, Studies of the Walter  H.  Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Smith, Daniel  M., and Steven  R.  Reed. 2018. “The Reed-Smith Japanese House of Representatives Elections Dataset.” Harvard Dataverse V1. https://dataverse.harvard.edu/ dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/QFEPXD. Smith, Daniel M, and Hidenori Tsutsumi. 2016. “Candidate Selection Methods and Policy Cohesion in Parties: The Impact of Open Recruitment in Japan.” Party Politics 22: 339–353. Takenaka, Harukata. 2002. “Introducing Junior Ministers and Reforming the Diet in Japan.” Asian Survey 42: 928–939. Takenaka, Harukata. 2019. “Expansion of the Prime Minister’s Power in the Japanese Parliamentary System: Transformation of Japanese Politics and Institutional Reforms.” Asian Survey 59: 844–869. Terada, Takashi. 2015. “The Abe Effect and Domestic Politics.” Asian Perspective 39: 381–403. Terada, Takashi. 2019. “Japan and TPP/TPP-11: Opening Black Box of Domestic Political Alignment for Proactive Economic Diplomacy in Face of ‘Trump Shock.’” Pacific Review 32: 1041–1069. Thayer, Nathaniel  B. 1969. How the Conservatives Rule Japan. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Winkler, Christian G. 2014. “Between Pork and People: An Analysis of the Policy Balance in the LDP’s Election Platforms.” Journal of East Asian Studies 14: 405–428. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2013. “Kessen Tohyo ni Toin Hyo.” Yomiuri Shimbun, February 15, 2013, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2014. “‘Seiji no Genba’ Jimin Hen’yo (2) Zoku Giin ‘Chosei Gata’ ni Katsuro.” Yomiuri Shimbun, August 19, 2014, 4. Yomiuri Shimbun. 2018a. “Jimin Giin Seshu wo Seigen Teigen An Getsu Nai nimo Teishutu ‘Gyaku Sabetsu’ to Mo Hanpatsu.” Yomiuri Shimbun, June 8, 2018, 4.

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chapter 10

The Er a of Coa lition G ov er nm en t i n Ja pa n The Institutional Logic of Surplus Majorities and Strange Bedfellows Michael F. Thies

When most people think about Japanese politics, they understandably focus on the dominance of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). From its founding in 1955 through 1993, the LDP governed continuously with single-­party majorities.1 Since August 1993, however, nearly every Japanese government has featured a coalition of at least two parties, and as many as eight. After 38 years of single-­party rule in Japan, the ensuing 27 years have been the era of coalition governments (see Table 10.1 for a list of cabinets). The LDP has continued to play the starring role for most of the coalition era, but it has fallen into opposition twice (1993–1994 and 2009–2012) and has served as junior partner in one other government.2 Bookending the era of LDP dominance, Japanese coalitions in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1990s were either minimal winning coalitions or minority governments. But starting in 1999, every governing coalition has been “oversized”—that is, each has included at least one party whose seats were not needed to fend off motions of no-­confidence, or indeed to pass legislation. In fact, every one of these governments has featured a single party that held a majority of lower house seats on its own—making any coalition at all seemingly unnecessary. Why? I will argue here that the story of coalition governments in Japan turns on two features of the country’s political institutions that are often overlooked in studies of parliamentary coalitions. The first is strong bicameralism. Although this fact was obscured by the LDP’s bicameral majorities until 1989, Japan’s upper chamber is actually among the

Table 10.1  Coalition Governments in Japan, 1993–2020 Date

Cabinet

JSP/SDP

DSP

SDF

JRP

JNP

NPH

1993.08.09

Hosokawa

6

1

1

5

1*

2

0

9*

1

DPJ/DP

Kōmei

LDP

1

4

opp

opp

6

1994.04.28

Hata

opp

1994.06.30

Murayama

6*

2

1996.01.11

Hashimoto I

6

2

opp

1996.11.07

Hashimoto II

opp

opp

opp

PNP

opp

LP

CP

opp

Indep

2

NonPol

Total

Coal’n Type

2

21

MWC

21

Minority

13

1

21

MWC

13*

21

MWC

21*

21

Minority

1998.07.30

Obuchi Ia

opp

opp

opp

opp

20*

opp

1

21

MWC

1999.01.14

Obuchi Ib

opp

opp

opp

opp

16*

1

1

18

Oversized

1999.10.05

Obuchi Ic

opp

opp

opp

1

16*

1

1

19

Oversized

2000.04.05

Mori I

opp

opp

opp

1

16*

opp

1

19

Oversized

1

2000.07.04

Mori II

opp

opp

opp

1

16*

opp

1

1

19

Oversized

2001.04.26

Koizumi I

opp

opp

opp

1

15*

opp

1

1

18

Oversized

2003.11.19

Koizumi II

opp

opp

opp

1

17*

opp

18

Oversized

2005.09.21

Koizumi III

opp

1

17*

18

Oversized

opp

opp

2006.09.26

Abe I

opp

opp

opp

1

17*

1

19

Oversized

2007.09.26

Fukuda

opp

opp

opp

1

16*

2

19

Oversized

2008.09.24

Asō

opp

opp

opp

1

17*

18

Oversized

2009.09.16

Hatoyama

1

18*

1

opp

opp

20

Oversized

2010.06.08

Kan

opp

18*

1

opp

opp

19

Oversized

2011.09.02

Noda

opp

18*

1

opp

opp

19

Oversized

2012.12.26

Abe II

opp

opp

opp

1

18*

19

Oversized

2014.12.24 2017.11.01

Abe III Abe IV

opp opp

opp opp

1 1

19* 19*

20 20

Oversized Oversized

* Indicates party of prime minister; numbers without asterisk indicate posts held by parties other than the prime minister’s party. “Opp” indicates that party was in opposition at the time; empty cell indicates that party did not exist at the time. Table includes parties that held at least one cabinet post during this time. Parties that remained in opposition throughout the period are omitted. Legend (left to right across table) JSP/SDP: Japan Socialist Party/Social Democratic Party; DSP: Democratic Socialist Party; SDF: Social Democratic Federation; JRP: Japan Renewal Party; JNP: Japan New Party; NPH: New Party Harbinger; DPJ/DP: Democratic Party (of Japan); PNP: People’s New Party; Kōmei: Kōmeitō; LDP: Liberal Democratic Party; LP: Liberal Party; CP: Conservative Party; Indep: Independents (i.e., no party affiliation); NonPol: non-­politician.

186   Michael F. Thies strongest in the parliamentary world. Formally, governments need the support of only the lower house to stay in office, but the upper chamber can wield a potent enough legislative veto to thwart any government that does not control it. Second, the ­mixed-­member majoritarian (MMM) electoral system used since 1996 for the lower house has induced the establishment and long-­term maintenance of a pre-­electoral coalition between the LDP and a small partner party, Kōmeitō. To date, this partnership has endured for two decades, despite the LDP’s single-­party majorities for most of that time, and also surviving a stint in opposition between 2009 and 2012. Moreover, the partnership has continued even though the two parties are often at odds over policy priorities and policy content (see Klein and McLaughlin, this volume). Coalitions of strange bedfellows are not unheard of around the world, but in Japan, the LDP-­Kōmeitō pairing has morphed into something more like codependence.

Coalition Theories The dependence of the executive on the legislature for its investiture and maintenance in office is the defining feature of parliamentarism (Lijphart 1984; Shugart and Carey 1992). When a single political party controls the parliament, the relationship is straightforward: the majority party invests its own leaders as prime minister and cabinet, and may change those selections at any time without the need for a general election. In a system that tends to produce single-­party majorities, then general elections become, de facto, choices by voters about which party will run the government, as parliaments effectively devolve to electoral colleges (Cox 1987; Powell 2000).3 But most parliamentary systems do not feature majority parties. Most see several political parties elected to parliament, with none large enough to take sole control. Starting with Riker (1962), political scientists have studied what happens when there is no majority party. Nearly all legislatures still require majorities to legislate, and all parliamentary systems oblige governments to maintain at least the toleration of a majority of members to stay in office. Riker therefore predicted that governments would take the form of “minimal winning coalitions” (MWCs). That is, in the absence of a single majority party, a coalition of two or more parties controlling at least 50 percent of the parliamentary seats would form (hence “winning”) but such a coalition would not include any party whose contribution to the team’s seat total was unnecessary (hence “minimal”). Riker’s logic was based on the assumption that politicians cared most about the power and perquisites of office, which they would be loath to share any more widely than necessary. In reality, however, most governments in parliaments that lack a majority party are not MWCs. Roughly one-­third are “minority governments,” governments whose ­constituent parties (i.e., party or parties with cabinet seats) control less than a majority of parliamentary seats (Strøm 1990). Many minority governments enjoy the external

The Era of Coalition Government in Japan   187 s­ upport of “shadow partners” that choose not to accept any cabinet positions but vote with the government much of the time. For others, that pledge of external support is limited to “confidence and supply,” which means that the government can count on the vote support it needs to defeat any motions of no confidence and to pass its annual ­budget, but it must find support for other bills on an ad hoc basis, likely striking deals with different “opposition” parties on different issues.4 Finally, another third or so of parliamentary governments are “oversized coalitions,” which means that they include at least one party whose departure would not deprive the remaining coalition of a parliamentary majority—a “surplus” party or parties. These are in some ways the most puzzling—why invite a party whose votes are not needed either for survival or for legislation? Volden and Carrubba (2004) assess five prominent explanations for oversized coalitions. All start from the premise that, contra Riker, parties are motivated primarily by policy rather than office (de Swaan 1973; Leiserson 1966). Space constraints preclude a full summary of their findings, but briefly, they find no systematic effect of the size or ideological extremeness of the formateur party in a coalition (Crombez 1996),5 of the ideological extremeness of the status quo policy (Baron and Diermeier 2001),6 or of the desire to build ideologically “connected” coalitions that may contain one or more numerically surplus parties (Axelrod 1970). They also test their own model (Carrubba and Volden 2000), which characterizes coalition formation as a repeated game of legislating.7 They find that oversized coalitions are associated with more challenging bargaining circumstances due to the presence of more parties, or of a more polarized party system. It is important to note that all of the literature discussed thus far assumes a unicameral legislature. Coalitions are categorized as MWC, minority, or oversized according to the total share of seats held by the parties in the cabinet with respect to a single parliamentary chamber. Even in bicameral systems, only the lower house is considered. Might considering bicameralism help us to explain more? Both Lijphart (1984) and Sjölin (1993) speculate that oversized coalitions might form when an MWC in the lower house of a bicameral parliament must add another party or parties to the cabinet in order to control an upper house majority as well. That is, to be “bicameral winning,” a coalition might have to be oversized in the lower house. Druckman, Martin, and Thies (2005) found that this circumstance is rare, but showed that in bicameral settings, prospective coalitions that would not be bicameral-­winning are less likely to form, other things equal. Druckman and Thies (2002) had earlier shown that among coalitions that do take office, those that lack upper house control collapse sooner. However, Volden and Carrubba find that, for their full data set, oversized coalitions are actually less likely when no prospective lower house MWC would be bicameral winning. But they also show that oversized coalitions are more likely when the largest party in the lower house is different from the largest party in the upper house, which they claim as support for their own “logrolling” theory.

188   Michael F. Thies

Coalition Governments in Postwar Japan The end of the LDP’s long run of single-­party governments came in 1993 as the result of a party split, a successful vote of no confidence, and the forging of an anti-­LDP coalition following the LDP’s failure to regain a majority in the ensuing general election. At the time, the advent of coalition government was a shock to the system. Observers were suddenly presented with the spectacle of interparty bargaining and coalitional dysfunction spilling out into public view, whereas most such arduous consensus-­building had remained behind the closed doors of LDP party headquarters for two generations. But those with the longest memories knew that coalition governments were not unprecedented. Japan’s postwar constitution was promulgated on May 3, 1947. For the next eight-­plus years, shifting coalitions of parties governed Japan. Parties came and went, and split and merged, until late 1955 (Kohno 1997). In the autumn of 1955, the estranged Left Socialists and Right Socialists reunited to form the Japan Socialist Party (JSP), and just a month later the Liberals and the Democrats merged to establish the LDP. Thus was born what became known as the 1955 system.8 The most important feature of the 1955 system was that the LDP maintained majorities in both houses of the National Diet (parliament) and formed single-­party governments. The JSP started out roughly half the size of the LDP in 1955, but its support declined over time. Its right wing defected to form the Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) in 1959–1960, and the new centrist party Kōmeitō emerged as the political arm of the lay Buddhist organization Sōka Gakkai a few years later (see Klein and McLaughlin, this volume). Although the LDP’s majorities shrank to almost zero in the mid-­late 1970s, the JSP never posed a credible threat to lead a government opposed to the LDP, alone or in coalition with smaller parties.

“Normal” Coalition Governments In 1993 a significant party split finally cost the LDP its lower house majority, and briefly its hold on government as well. The defectors, as well as former LDP local politicians, established new parties that joined forces with the JSP, the DSP, Kōmeitō, and the small Social Democratic Federation to form an anti-­LDP coalition headed by Morihiro Hosokawa. Thus began the modern era of coalition governments in Japan. The signature accomplishment of this first unwieldy coalition was to pass laws to change the ­lower-­house electoral system9 to the current mixed system, combining a first tier of ­single-­member districts with a second tier using closed-­list proportional representation.10 The shift to MMM has had profound effects on the party system, on the internal workings of political parties, on governance (Reed and Thies 2001b; Rosenbluth and Thies 2010), and on campaign strategies and coalition building (Liff and Maeda 2019).

The Era of Coalition Government in Japan   189 After Hosokawa resigned in April 1994 over a campaign finance scandal, the JSP and NPH left the anti-­LDP coalition. The resulting minority coalition government stumbled on for two more months. The LDP then seized the chance to return to power, but it needed partners. In June 1994, it forged a coalition with the JSP and the NPH, and installed Socialist Tomiichi Murayama as prime minister. Back in opposition again, the rest of the parties (save the JCP) forged a single, broad-­ based party to challenge the LDP, especially in the single-­member districts that would choose 60 percent of the lower house at the next election. The result was the New Frontier Party (NFP), inaugurated in December 1994. The NFP performed well in the 1995 HC half-­election, winning more votes and seats than the LDP in the PR (proportional representation) tier. The NFP also won more district votes nationwide, but fell far short of the LDP’s seat total, because its support was not distributed optimally. In January 1996, the new LDP leader Ryūtarō Hashimoto took over from the JSP’s Murayama as prime minister, continuing the three-­party coalition. In September, only a few weeks before the first lower house election under the new rules, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was founded by a coalition of JSP and NFP defectors. Predictably, a divided opposition vote once again contributed to LDP success in the October general election. After the election, the JSP and NFP ended their formal coalition with the LDP, choosing instead to support an LDP minority government from the backbenches. The NFP led the opposition, but its internal disarray caused more and more defections. By September 1997 enough NFP refugees had returned to the LDP to restore the LDP’s lower house majority. The NFP disbanded in December 1997. The immediate consequence of the NFP’s demise was an explosion of new parties. Many switched to the DPJ, which took over as the biggest opposition party. Kōmeitō re-­ emerged as an independent party. Its lower house majority re-­established but still in need of outside help in the upper house, the LDP government maintained its working alliance with the JSP (now renamed the Social Democratic Party, or SDP) and NPH. After a poor showing in the July 1998 upper house election, Hashimoto resigned. To this point, the coalition building that followed the LDP’s loss of majority status in 1993 resembles the world described by political science theory—the cobbling together of coalitions after elections have left every party short of a majority, and shifts from one coalition to another as individual parties changed teams now and again. The LDP minority government of 1996, with external support from shadow partners, is also par for the course of government formation in many European parliamentary democracies. But what followed, and what has continued ever since, would appear on its face to be somewhat puzzling.

The Turn to Majority-­Party-­Led Oversized Coalitions In January 1999, despite his party’s renewed majority, LDP leader Keizō Obuchi invited the small Liberal Party to join the LDP in coalition. In October of that same year, Kōmeitō joined the coalition as well. The Obuchi government now contained not one

190   Michael F. Thies but two parties that were surplus to requirements vis-­à-­vis the lower house. The ­LDP-­LP-­Kōmeitō coalition continued through March 2000. The LP then split, with one faction leaving the coalition, and the other being reabsorbed by the LDP after the 2003 election. The LDP-­Kōmeitō alliance has persisted ever since. To date, the pair have governed together under six different LDP prime ministers, and remained steadfast even after a 2009 landslide DPJ victory threw them into opposition for three years. After the DPJ won that historic lower house majority, it too forged an oversized ­coalition with two small parties (the SDP and the People’s New Party), inviting the leader of each into its first cabinet. The SDP left that government in May 2010 over a policy dispute (BBC News  2010), but the DPJ-­PNP government held on, running through three prime ministers in three years. In the lower house election of December 2012, the LDP and Kōmeitō roared back into power, together winning a two-­thirds supermajority of seats. Subsequent lower house elections in 2014 and 2017 have maintained the status quo.11 To summarize, nearly all Japanese governments since late 1993 have featured multiparty coalitions. Unusually, every government since January 1999 has featured a party with a majority of seats in the Diet’s lower house on its own that has nonetheless enticed another party or two into coalition. A review of the political science literature on coalition formation, and on oversized coalitions specifically, reveals this Japanese pattern to be highly unusual. The explicit reason for these majority-­party-­led oversized coalitions has been to secure upper house majorities, but this is not the usual response to a ­situation in which a lower house MWC lacks an upper house majority (Volden and Carrubba  2004). Usually a government in such a situation will use its lower house majority to pass bills and then find the additional support it needs in the upper house on an ad hoc basis, effectively acting like a minority government in the upper house. Why did Japanese majority parties choose instead to build oversized coalitions (George Mulgan 2000a, 70)?

Strong Bicameralism and Coalition Formation Article 41 of the Constitution of Japan stipulates that “The Diet shall be the highest organ of state power, and shall be the sole law-­making organ of the State.” The Japanese Diet is bicameral, but as in most bicameral parliamentary systems,12 the government is responsible only to the lower house (the House of Representatives, HR).13 Once the government is in place, however, the supremacy of the HR is much more limited. All ordinary legislation (i.e., other than budgets and treaties, but including bills needed to implement budgets and treaties), must be approved in identical form by each house unless the HR can muster a two-­thirds supermajority to override a veto by the upper house (House of Councillors, HC) (Thies and Yanai 2014).14 For this reason, although a government that

The Era of Coalition Government in Japan   191 lacks majority support in the upper house is not at risk of a formal vote of no-­confidence that would expel it from office, it may find it very difficult to legislative and govern without bicameral support.15 Until 1989, the power of the HC was difficult to observe because the LDP continuously held single-­party majorities in both chambers. Once the party lost its HC majority that year, however, the problem for the government was easy to see. Suddenly, the LDP was obliged to bargain publicly in order to garner the extra votes it needed to pass bills.16 Still, building upper house coalitions bill by bill, while tedious, was at least feasible. The powers of the upper house came into full view in 2007. That year, not only did the LDP-­Kōmeitō coalition lose its upper house majority, but the DPJ gained enough seats to become the number one party and, with the cooperation of its own allies, chose the speaker and took control of the HC. For the first time, a Japanese government faced a united, hostile HC majority determined to frustrate its efforts to legislate. This state of affairs became known in Japan as nejire kokkai, the “Twisted Diet.” Shinzō Abe resigned as LDP leader and prime minister to take responsibility for the 2007 HC election loss,17 but neither of his successors, each of whom lasted only a year on the job, found much success trying to negotiate with the Twisted Diet (Thies and Yanai 2014).18 The DPJ’s obstructionism seemed to pay off, as it won a dominant lower house majority in the 2009 general election, temporarily halting the bicameral gridlock. Following the LDP-­Kōmeitō example, it invited its upper house allies, the SDP and PNP, to join it in coalition in order to secure bicameral majorities. Just nine months later, the LDP exacted its revenge by winning the 2010 HC half-­election and re-­twisting the Diet. Now two consecutive DPJ prime ministers found themselves unable to govern in the face of an obstructionist upper house. The LDP-­Kōmeitō team retook the HR in December 2012 and strengthened its hold on the HC in July 2013, and they have managed to sustain bicameral majorities ever since. It is important to note that there is no way for a Japanese government to dissolve the upper house and call an early election in the hope of “untwisting” the Diet.19 The HC is a continuous body in which members serve six-­year terms with half elected every three years.20 During the Twisted Diet period, when frustrated governments of first the LDP and then the DPJ would plead for compromise and even offer to form grand coalitions, the opposition party (the DPJ, then the LDP), secure in its HC control at least until the next regularly scheduled half-­election, would instead demand that the only solution was for the government to resign and call new lower house elections. This detail of election schedules perversely placed the party in control of the supposedly weaker chamber in the stronger bargaining position. The key insight here is that while recent Japanese governing coalitions have been “oversized” from the perspective of the lower house alone, they have been “minimal winning” with respect to both houses of the Diet simultaneously. The Japanese Constitution, like nearly all parliamentary constitutions, requires a government to maintain the confidence of only the lower house, so a hostile upper house cannot “fire” the government. But the constitution also endows the upper house with a powerful veto on legislation, so an uncompromising opposition majority can use the upper house to

192   Michael F. Thies stop the government dead in its tracks, eventually obliging it to resign out of sheer ­ineffectiveness. Twisted Diets, with opposition-­controlled HCs, appeared only briefly between 2007 and 2012. But the construction of bicameral winning coalitions began as early as 2000 and have continued for twenty years at this point.

The Electoral Logic of the LDP-­Kōm eitō Coalition When the lower house–majority LDP first invited Kōmeitō to join it in coalition in 1999, coalition theorists were surprised. Since then, fifteen consecutive cabinets under nine different prime ministers have chosen this configuration, including the cabinets led by the DPJ. Why didn’t these majority parties chose to govern alone, as the LDP did for most of the 1989–1999 period, ramming bills through the lower house and then simply bargaining for the extra support needed to secure upper house passage? Why forge permanent coalitions and share cabinet portfolios? Theory aside, the LDP-­Kōmeitō partnership was surprising to Japan hands as well. It is an odd pairing for several reasons. First, the two parties were adversaries for thirty-­ five years prior to teaming up in 1999 (Metraux 1999). Their only real point of agreement during that time was a shared antipathy to communism. Kōmeitō built its brand around pacifist opposition to LDP foreign and security policies,21 and by championing the interests of those left behind by the postwar “economic miracle” overseen by the LDP. “Kōmeitō was, and remains, closer to the DPJ on most policies than to the LDP” (Klein and Reed 2014, 226). It is an urban party, whereas the LDP continues to dominate rural Japan (George Mulgan 2000b; Scheiner 2006).22 Prior to joining with Kōmeitō, the LDP had long relied on the support of other, rival, organized religious groups, and on their behalf made a practice of antagonizing Sōka Gakkai, the lay Buddhist organization that founded Kōmeitō and still provides much of its electoral support and all of the candidates (Ehrhardt 2009; Klein and Reed 2014).23 When Kōmeitō was engaged as a constituent part of the New Frontier Party, the LDP used the excuse of the 1995 sarin-­gas terrorist attack in the Tokyo subway system by the Aum Shinrikyō cult to revise the law on religious organizations to require regular financial reporting to the government. This was recognized as a thinly veiled effort to harass Sōka Gakkai (Metraux 1999, 929–930). Not surprisingly, Kōmeitō’s elopement with the LDP just a few years later was met with dissension among some Sōka Gakkai supporters, who saw it as a cynical betrayal in pursuit of power (Metraux 1999, 936–937). Second, this is a coalition of unequals. Currently, the LDP enjoys a 10:1 seat advantage in the lower house, a 5:1 ratio in the upper house and a 20:1 domination of the cabinet. When the alliance first began, the LDP was explicit that Kōmeitō’s modest contingent was necessary only to regain control over the upper house. But that logic alone cannot explain the current situation; indeed, after the 2016 HC half-­election, the LDP alone

The Era of Coalition Government in Japan   193 held exactly half the upper house seats and a huge lower house majority, and easily could have governed without Kōmeitō as a formal, cabinet-­level partner. Nor can it explain how the coalition survived three years out of power. If the coalitional arithmetic now renders Kōmeitō redundant, why does the LDP keep it as a partner? And if Kōmeitō is vastly outnumbered in the Diet, and even more so in the cabinet (Hasunuma and Klein 2014), what exactly does Kōmeitō get out of the marriage? Third, to this day, although the two parties’ manifestos have converged somewhat during their long partnership (Magyar 2017), Kōmeitō remains a vocal skeptic of many LDP aspirations.24 The most important of these is to amend the constitution, a particular priority for Prime Minister Abe (2006–2007 and 2012–2020), the most hawkish LDP leader for decades. Although the fact that constitutional amendments require two-­ thirds majorities might seem to explain the oversized coalition,25 it is not at all clear that Kōmeitō would support initiating such a move. So why does this odd coalition persist? The answer appears to lie in the logic of the mixed-­member electoral system. What began as a marriage of arithmetic con­ven­ ience has blossomed into full-­blown codependency, in which the vast differences in the two parties’ support bases and sizes turn out to be not bugs, but features. Back in the days of the multi-­seat constituencies and the SNTV electoral rule, Kōmeitō won nearly all of its seats by finishing in third or fourth place in four or five-­member urban districts. They supported the 1994 switch to single-­member districts only because they were planning to become part of the NFP, a big party that could challenge the LDP head to head in first-­past-­the-­post elections. After the NFP fell apart and Kōmeitō was set adrift, it was too small to win any SMDs on its own. Either it would have to restrict its electoral ambitions to the PR tier, or, if it hoped to win any SMDs, it would need a partner.26 The LDP is a nationalized party that is viable in every part of the country, but its strong­est base is in the countryside. Kōmeitō is an urban party, and while it could not hope to defeat the LDP head to head, it could certainly draw enough votes to make the difference in many urban districts. With its fiercely loyal voter base (as compared with the organizationally weak LDP), Kōmeitō runs the most potent and reliable electoral machine in the country. The LDP soon saw the value of Kōmeitō mobilization efforts to swing competitive urban districts to its column. Thus, a pre-­electoral coalition took shape that has refined its cooperation more and more over time. In most districts, Kōmeitō has agreed not to run candidates of its own, and to mobilize in support of LDP candidates instead. In return, the LDP has stood down in a few urban districts and endorsed Kōmeitō candidates. The mutual stand-­down arrangements have worked just as the parties had hoped. Whereas the combined opposition often compiles more votes than the LDP-­Kōmeitō candidate, its failure to coordinate on a single candidate gifts many seats to the LDP-­Kōmeitō team (Scheiner, Smith, and Thies 2016, 2018). Thus, a big part of the reason that the LDP wins as many seats as it does, especially in urban areas, is that Kōmeitō’s supporters push LDP candidates over the line. If the pair were to divorce, not only would the LDP lose Kōmeitō’s support in the Diet, but each party would also lose much of its own parliamentary strength.

194   Michael F. Thies The LDP-­Kōmeitō alliance has been perfected over seven general elections, starting in 2000. Of course, due to the secrecy of the ballot, it is impossible to know if all Kōmeitō supporters follow party instructions to support LDP candidates, and the counterfactual scenarios (e.g., what would have happened had a Kōmeitō candidate entered the race) are unobservable. To estimate the importance of the alliance, Liff and Maeda (2019) ­provide a reasonable simulation. They start with Kōmeitō’s PR-­tier vote in each SMD as an indication of how many Kōmeitō voters participated in each SMD. With support from voter survey results, they assume that 80 percent of Kōmeitō PR voters supported LDP candidates in the SMD tier, but that LDP ticket-­splitters provided no meaningful improvement of Kōmeitō’s PR vote.27 This allows them to estimate that between 16 percent (in 2012) and 53 percent (in 2009) of LDP SMD wins were due to support by Kōmeitō voters. As it is highly unlikely that Kōmeitō’s own candidates, had they competed against LDP candidates, would have won many or even any of those seats, the coalition’s majority, let alone supermajority, clearly depends on the two parties’ electoral cooperation. Several scholars argue that the Kōmeitō also “punches above its weight” (Liff and Maeda 2019, 64) in terms of its influence over the coalition’s policy outputs (Hasunuma and Klein 2014; Klein and McLaughlin, this volume). Despite its small numbers and its single cabinet post, Kōmeitō nevertheless provides an effective brake on LDP policy initiatives with which it does not agree. The most important examples concern LDP efforts to “transform the role of the JSDF within and beyond the U.S.-Japan alliance,” and its “years-­long push to revise Article 9” (Liff & Maeda 2019, 24–29). In both cases, Kōmeitō has obliged the LDP to water down its proposals to the point that they amount to only the smallest of changes from the status quo. Japan’s mixed-­member electoral system is not unique. A growing number of ­countries have adopted mixed systems over the past thirty or so years (Shugart and Wattenberg  2001). Importantly, however, Japan’s electoral rule is of the mixed-­ member majoritarian (MMM) variety, not the mixed-­member proportional (MMP) type used in, for example, Germany and New Zealand. The key difference between the two subtypes is that under MMM a party earns its proportional share of the PR seats plus as many district seats as its candidates win; every district seat adds to a party’s total. Under MMP the PR vote determines a party’s overall seat share in the parliament, and district seats count against that total—fewer district wins just means more winners from the party list. If the Japanese system were MMP, the incentive for the LDP and Kōmeitō, or indeed any two parties, to form a pre-­electoral coalition would be much weaker. Another important point about the LDP-­Kōmeitō arrangement is that neither party would seem to have a potential alternative partner. Each party is strong (geographically) where the other is weak. Had Kōmeitō been tempted to collaborate instead with the DPJ, it would have found itself unable to help much in rural districts (where the DPJ needs help), and in urban districts, where the DPJ was relatively strong, it would have a harder time convincing the DPJ to stand down on its behalf. Likewise, it is not clear that the LDP could find a different partner as compatible as Kōmeitō. While most other parties

The Era of Coalition Government in Japan   195 are also strongest where the LDP is weakest—in urban districts—no other party commands as formidable an electoral mobilization operation as Kōmeitō, and so the promise to throw its support the LDP’s way would be less reliable.

Conclusions Coalition government somehow still seems unusual in Japan, after one party so thoroughly dominated politics for nearly two generations. Has the shift to coalition governments, and in particular to oversized coalitions, impacted the quality of democracy in Japan? Normatively, we demand a lot from our systems of government, and some of the qualities that we value must be traded off against others. For example, more centralized power improves accountability and efficiency, but reduces representativeness and protections for minorities. More dispersed power (checks and balances) protects better against tyranny of the majority and expands participation, but can also produce policy gridlock and dysfunction. Coalition governments necessarily bring together parties that represent different interests within the electorate. Whether via multi-­issue logrolls or issue-­by-­issue compromises, the policy package produced by a coalition should reflect a broader array of interests than would be the case if one party were to govern alone. Japan’s era of coalition government has seen all of the above: logrolls, compromises, and some gridlock (Klein and McLaughlin, this volume). Accordingly, observers who want government to move more boldly in various policy areas might see coalitions as a problem for Japanese democracy. But for those who would oppose those same bold changes, this new era should constitute an improvement. That most Japanese coalitions have been oversized, and have featured a single party with a lower house majority might cause one to expect that the small party’s effect on governance is marginal at best. But because Japan’s oversized coalitions stem from its stronger-­than-­typical bicameralism as well as the fact that the usual majority party owes its majority to the electoral efforts of its partner, the smaller partner enjoys considerably more leverage than its numbers would suggest. In the absence of this coalition, the LDP would remain the largest party, but probably short of a majority in both chambers. Some other coalition would have to form, or the LDP might govern as a minority, striking deals with whatever party would “charge” the least in terms of compromises or side payments. From the perspective of citizen welfare, a permanent pre-­electoral coalition that makes Kōmeitō a veto player may prevent the LDP from finding alternative partners when Kōmeitō won’t play ball. This may leave some potential welfare-­enhancing policy changes unrealized. Whether those opportunity costs outweigh the extra transactions costs and uncertainty that minority government might entail is unknowable. At present, the LDP-­Kōmeitō coalition looks unassailable. It is possible that they could perform poorly enough to alienate some voters in favor of another alternative, but the vote swing would have to be large indeed to overcome their electoral synergy in the

196   Michael F. Thies single-­member districts. Opponents might manage to find an issue that drives a wedge between the two partners wide enough to outweigh the electoral benefits of cooperating. Importantly, in local elections, where the MMM logic is absent, Kōmeitō has no qualms about teaming up with other parties to oppose the LDP (Liff and Maeda 2019, 18). Another possibility would be another LDP party split. It is not difficult to imagine that further market liberalization could upset the LDP’s ability to appeal to both rural and urban interests. Similarly, opening the country to immigration at the magnitude needed to address Japan’s dire shortage of workers could upend party politics in the same way that it has in the United States and Western Europe. If any of these scenarios were to come to pass, we would be certain to see ripple effects in the logic of coalition politics in Japan.

Notes 1. The technical exception was the second Nakasone (December 1983–June 1986) in which the LDP gave a single cabinet post to the New Liberal Club, a party formed by LDP defectors in 1976, which was re-­absorbed after the LDP’s landslide electoral victory in 1986. 2. From June 1994 to January 1996, Socialist Tomiichi Murayama served as prime minister, although the LDP held fifteen cabinet posts to the Socialists’ six, with the remaining two going to a third partner, the New Party Harbinger. 3. During the LDP’s period of dominance between 1955 and 1993, the party produced fifteen successive prime ministers, and normalized a personnel system that reshuffled the cabinet annually affording nearly every LDP Diet member a turn in the cabinet by his or her sixth term in office (Satō and Matsuzaki 1986). 4. Other times, a congenial party might remain outside government because the party in government does not have to offer a formal partnership to garner the support it needs to stay in office and legislate (Laver and Shepsle 1996) An example might be a near-­majority and somewhat centrist party (e.g., Sweden’s Social Democratic Party) that must be included in any coalition because any coalition excluding it would require, say, far-­left parties to join forces with far-­right parties. Such a party could insist on going it alone as a minority government. 5. Crombez (1996) predicts that when the formateur is small and extreme, there are more potential alternative governments that could form without it. Accordingly, such a party would bring on surplus partners to reduce the chance than any one partner could credibly threaten to bring down the government by defecting. 6. Baron and Diermeier (2001) argue that when status quo is more extreme more parties will be willing to offer side payments to the formateur in order to join the government and avoid the worst possible policy outcomes. 7. They focus on the fragility over time of policy logrolls among parties with different preferences. Parties that receive their preferred policies early in the life of the government will have an incentive to defect to avoid the passage of the policies favored by their partners. Accordingly, it makes sense to include surplus partners so that any individual party’s incentive to defect is weakened (because doing so would not bring down the government but might subject them to exclusion from future logrolls).This logic is reminiscent of Crombez (1996) and of earlier work by Luebbert (1986), Weingast (1979), and Weingast

The Era of Coalition Government in Japan   197 and Marshall (1988). It might also apply to concerns about internal party discipline. If ­parties are worried about defections by dissenting members, they might welcome the inclusion of a surplus party as a sort of insurance (Dodd 1976). 8. The Japanese Communist Party (JCP), newly legalized during the Occupation, began this period with only two lower house seats. 9. During the period of LDP dominance (1955–1993), the electoral rule for the HR was the single non-­transferable vote (SNTV), with the country divided into three-­to-­five-­seat districts (511 seats from 129 districts for the last SNTV election, in 1993). 10. In the event, the JSP defected in the upper house, almost killing the bill, but the LDP supported the final bill in exchange for a greater majoritarian component (Christensen 1994, Reed and Thies 2001a). 11. A number of new parties have appeared (and mostly disappeared) over the last decade, but none ever entered a governing coalition, so I do not discuss them here. 12. Italy is exceptional; governments must maintain the confidence of both houses, voting separately. In Romania, the full bicameral parliament invests and may dismiss the government, but for these votes the two houses sit jointly, and the lower house outnumbers the upper house 329 to 136. 13. Article 67 of the Constitution of Japan stipulates that if the two houses disagree on the choice of prime minister, “the decision of the House of Representatives shall be the decision of the Diet.” 14. Constitution of Japan, Article 59. Per Articles 60 and 61 of the constitution, the HC may delay votes on budgets or treaties for up to thirty days before the HR may consider a nondecision by the HC to constitute a rejection, in which case the HR’s decision prevails. 15. Ganghof (2018) makes the case that the combination of strong bicameralism and parliamentarism in Japan and Australia (as well as in Australian state governments) constitutes a different regime type, which he calls “semi-­parliamentarism.” “A semi-­parliamentary system divides the assembly into two equally legitimate parts, only one of which possesses the power to dismiss the prime minister in a no-­confidence vote. Such a system establishes a formal separation of power between the executive and one part of the assembly. Semi-­ parliamentary government is a distinct, but neglected executive-­legislative system: (261). 16. The best-­known early example was a drawn-­out debate in 1991–1992 about bills that would allow Japan’s SDF to participate in United Nations–sponsored peacekeeping operations. Citing the prohibition in Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution against the threat or use of military force, all other parties objected to what would be the first dispatch of Japanese troops abroad since World War II. Eventually Kōmeitō agreed to support the bills after laborious negotiations over rules for engagement, weaponry, and even how many bullets they could carry (Purrington 1992). 17. Abe also cited health problems, a recurrence of which caused his resignation from his second, much-­longer stint as prime minister, in September 2020. 18. Coincidentally, Japan’s first-­ ever experience with this rare parliamentary version of divided government happened at the same time as its first experience of a government with the two-­thirds supermajority in the lower house needed to override an upper house veto. Thus, LDP governments did manage to pass seventeen bills over this period by overriding HC vetoes. This was a power that it used reluctantly and carefully, lest the public disapprove of what might appear to be tyranny of the majority. 19. In contrast, the even more powerful Australian and Italian Senates do run the risk of dissolution for snap elections if they cause the government too much trouble.

198   Michael F. Thies 20. Members of the HR are elected to four-­year terms, but as in most parliamentary systems, the government may dissolve the chamber and call an early election at any time. Only twice (in 1980 and 1986) have governments scheduled “double elections,” timing the HR’s dissolution for a general election on the same day as the pre-­scheduled HC election. 21. Kōmeitō did come to support the US-­Japan Mutual Security Treaty by the early 1990s (Metraux 1999). 22. The DPJ won in 2007 and 2009 by breaking the LDP’s rural monopoly, only to see it restored in 2010 (Reed, Scheiner and Thies 2012). 23. When the LDP-­Kōmeitō coalition formed, those rival religious organizations began to abandon the LDP and support the DPJ instead (Klein and Reed 2014:230-­231). 24. See Hasunuma and Klein (2014) and Klein and McLaughlin (this volume) for a more comprehensive look at dynamics of the LDP-­Kōmeitō coalition. 25. A constitutional amendment requires a two-­thirds vote in each house of the Diet (voting separately), as well as a referendum garnering majority support among voters. In the seventy-­four years since the constitution was promulgated, this process has never even been initiated, let alone completed. 26. Part of Kōmeitō’s initial motivation for accepting the LDP’s offer to join the cabinet was to ward off an attempt by the LDP and the Liberals to reduce the number of PR seats by fifty. In the event, the partners compromised on a twenty-­seat reduction (Metraux  1999, 934–935). 27. The LDP is not able to order its supporters around in the same way as Kōmeitō can with its supporters.

References Axelrod, Robert. 1970. Conflict of Interest. Chicago: Markham. Baron, David  P., and Daniel Diermeier. 2001. “Elections, Governments and Parliaments in Proportional Representations Systems.” Quarterly Journal of Economics. 116, no. 3: 933–967. BBC News. 2010. “Socialists Leave Japan Coalition over Okinawa Issue.” BBC News, May 30, 2010. https://www.bbc.com/news/10193171. Carrubba, Clifford  J., and Craig Volden. 2000. “Coalitional Politics and Logrolling in Legislative Institutions.” American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 2: 261–277. Christensen, Raymond. V. 1994. “Electoral Reform in Japan: How It Was Enacted and Changes It May Bring.” Asian Survey 34, no. 7: 589–605. Constitution of Japan. November 3, 1946. https://www.refworld.org/docid/3ae6b4ee38.html. Cox, Gary W. 1987. The Efficient Secret: The Cabinet and the Development of Political Parties in Victorian England. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Crombez, Christophe. 1996. “Minority Governments, Minimal Winning Coalitions, and Surplus Majorities in Parliamentary Systems.” European Journal of Political Research 29, no. 2: 1–29. de Swaan, Abram. 1973. Coalition Theories and Cabinet Formation. Amsterdam: Elsevier. Dodd, Lawrence C. 1976. Coalitions in Parliamentary Government. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Druckman, James  N., Lanny  W.  Martin, and Michael  F.  Thies. 2005. “Influence without Confidence: Upper Chambers and Government Formation.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 30, no. 4: 529–548.

The Era of Coalition Government in Japan   199 Druckman, James  N., and Michael  F.  Thies. 2002. “The Importance of Concurrence: The Impact of Bicameralism on Government Formation and Duration.” American Journal of Political Science 46, no. 4: 760–771. Erhardt, George. 2009. “Rethinking the Komeito Voter.” Japanese Journal of Political Science 10, no. 1: 1–20. Ganghof, Steffen. 2018. “A New Political System Model: Semi-parliamentary Government.” European Journal of Political Research 57: 261–281. George Mulgan, Aurelia. 2000a. “The Dynamics of Coalition Politics in Japan.” Asia Pacific Review 7, no. 2: 66–85. George Mulgan, Aurelia. 2000b. The Politics of Agriculture in Japan. London: Routledge. George Mulgan, Aurelia. 2015. Ozawa Ichirō and Japanese Politics: Old versus New. London: Routledge. Hasunuma, Linda, and Axel Klein. 2014. “Kōmeitō in Coalition.” In Kōmeitō: Politics and Religion in Japan, edited by George Ehrhardt, Axel Klein, Levi McLaughlin, and Steven R. Reed, 240–265. Berkeley: Institute of East Asian Studies. Klein, Axel, and Steven  R.  Reed. 2014. “Anti-Kōmeitō Countermobilizations.” In Kōmeitō: Politics and Religion in Japan, edited by George Ehrhardt, Axel Klein, Levi McLaughlin, and Steven R. Reed, 215–239. Berkeley: Institute of East Asian Studies. Kohno, Masaru. 1997. Japan’s Postwar Party Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Laver, Michael, and Kenneth A. Shepsle. 1996. Making and Breaking Governments: Cabinets and Legislatures in Parliamentary Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Leiserson, Michael. 1966. Coalitions in Politics. PhD diss., Yale University. Liff, Adam P., and Ko Maeda. 2019. “Electoral Incentives, Policy Compromise, and Coalition Durability: Japan’s LDP-Komeito Government in a Mixed Electoral System.” Japanese Journal of Political Science 20, no. 1: 53–73. Lijphart, Arend. 1984. Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Luebbert, Gregory. 1986. Comparative Democracy: Policy Making and Government Coalitions in Europe and Israel. New York: Columbia University Press. Magyar, Zsuzsanna Blanka. 2017. Opposition Structure and Government Policy Making in Parliamentary Democracies. PhD diss., UCLA. Metraux, Daniel  A. 1999. “Japan’s Search for Political Stability: The LDP-New Komeito Alliance.” Asian Survey 39, no. 6: 926–939. Powell, G.  Bingham. 2000. Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Purrington, Courtney. 1992. “Tokyo’s Policy Responses during the Gulf War and the Impact of the ‘Iraqi Shock’ on Japan.” Pacific Affairs 65, no. 2: 161–181. Reed, Steven R., and Michael F. Thies. 2001a. “The Causes of Electoral Reform in Japan.” In Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?, edited by Matthew Soberg Shugart and Martin P. Wattenberg, 152–172. New York: Oxford University Press. Reed, Steven R., and Michael F. Thies. 2001b. “The Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan.” In Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?, edited by Matthew  Soberg Shugart and Martin  P.  Wattenberg, 380–403. New York: Oxford University Press. Reed, Steven R., Ethan Scheiner, and Michael F. Thies. 2012. “The End of LDP Dominance and the Rise of Party-Oriented Politics in Japan.” Journal of Japanese Studies 38, no. 2: 357–380. Riker, William. 1962. The Theory of Political Coalitions. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

200   Michael F. Thies Rosenbluth, Frances McCall, and Michael F. Thies. 2010. Japan Transformed: Political Change and Economic Restructuring. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Satō, Seizaburō, and Tetsuhisa Matsuzaki. 1986. Jiminto Seiken [The LDP’s rule]. Tokyo: Chuo Koron-sha. Scheiner, Ethan. 2006. Democracy without Competition: Opposition Failure in a One-Party Dominant State. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Scheiner, Ethan, Daniel M. Smith, and Michael F. Thies. 2016. “The 2014 Japanese Election Results: The Opposition Cooperates, but Fails to Inspire.” In Japan Decides 2014: The Japanese General Election, edited by Robert Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, and Ethan Scheiner, 22–40. London: Palgrave. Scheiner, Ethan, Daniel M. Smith, and Michael F. Thies. 2018. “The 2017 Japanese Election Results: An Earthquake, a Typhoon, and another Landslide.” In Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese General Election, edited by Robert Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, and Ethan Scheiner, 29–50. London: Palgrave. Shugart, Matthew Soberg, and John M. Carey. 1992. Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics. New York: Cambridge University Press. Shugart, Matthew Soberg, and Martin  P.  Wattenberg, eds. 2001. Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds? New York: Oxford University Press. Sjölin, Mats. 1993. Coalition Politics and Parliamentary Power. Lund, Sweden: Lund University Press. Strøm, Kaare. 1990. Minority Government and Majority Rule. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Thies, Michael  F., and Yuki Yanai. 2014. “Bicameralism vs. Parliamentarism: Lessons from Japan’s Twisted Diet,” Senkyo Kenkyu 30, no. 2: 60–74. Volden, Craig, and Clifford  J.  Carrubba. 2004. “The Formation of Oversized Coalitions in Parliamentary Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science 40, no. 3: 521–537. Weingast, Barry. 1979. “A Rational Choice Perspective on Congressional Norms.” American Journal of Political Science 23, no. 2: 245–262. Weingast, Barry R., and William J. Marshall. 1988. “The Industrial Organization of Congress: or, Why Legislatures, Like Firms, Are Not Organized as Markets.” Journal of Political Economy 96, no. 1: 132–163.

chapter 11

Kōm eitō The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics Axel Klein and Levi M c Laughlin

Kōmeitō is like many smaller parties in liberal democracies outside Japan: although they are relevant and sometimes even pivotal actors in their political systems, they remain in the shadow of larger competitors, and they receive comparatively little academic attention. In the 1960s, and again in the 1990s, Kōmeitō played a crucial part in transforming Japanese politics. In 1993 the party joined the coalition that forced the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) onto the opposition benches after thirty-­ eight years of uninterrupted reign. Kōmeitō co-­created the short-­lived New Frontier Party (NFP) in 1995, drawing much ire from the rival LDP. In spite of this, Kōmeitō joined the LDP in 1999 as a junior coalition partner in the national government, enabling both parties to stabilize their grip on power. In addition to deserving attention for its pivotal role in Japanese politics, Kōmeitō is also useful for comparative studies in political science. Research on the party provides data on electoral mobilization of latent interest groups, the relationship between religion and politics, the significance of local networks, and the role ideologies play in policymaking and setting political agendas. Analysis of Kōmeitō cooperation with the LDP illuminates how coalitions work by shedding light on formal and informal power distributions. While this brief chapter cannot address all of these topics fully, it explains the relevance of Kōmeitō for theoretical endeavors. Primarily, it confirms that one cannot understand politics in Japan without studying Kōmeitō.

202   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin

Typologies, Party Structure, and Comparative Possibilities Labels such as liberal, conservative, socialist, or social democrat, which emerge from late nineteenth- and early twentieth-­century European categorization (Decker 2011), do not represent Kōmeitō’s policies, operations, or support base and in fact obscure essential characteristics. Kōmeitō also eludes more recent categorizing attempts (Gunter and Diamond 2003), though classifications such as “mass party,” “social movement party,” or “clientele party” do point to some key features. The same may also be true of the label “religious party,” which we used in an earlier monograph (Ehrhardt et al. 2014a). We defined this category to include all parties for which “primary organizational and voting support comes from a religious group” (Klein and Reed 2014b, 26). We are aware that this definition does not satisfy political scientists who expect party platforms to promote explicitly doctrinal objectives. Richard Gunther and Larry Diamond, for example, suggest that religious parties “differ in one important respect from parties based on secular ideologies: since the basis of the party’s programmes is a set of religious beliefs that are determined by a combination of tradition and interpretation by clerics and/or a religious institution outside of the party itself, the party is not in full control of its core ideological precepts whenever they are directly linked to religious values (such as those relating to abortion, divorce, sexual preference or some manifestations of artistic expression)” (Gunther and Diamond 2003, 182). In this respect, given its policy shifts, Kōmeitō has arguably been a nonreligious party since the 1970s. However, given also that Kōmeitō depends on electioneering by members of the lay Buddhist organization Sōka Gakkai, who treat vote-­gathering for Kōmeitō and its allies as a component of their practice, the party can be characterized as a religious undertaking. Indeed, the Gakkai/ Kōmeitō connection demonstrates that religious identity remains an influential aspect of Japanese politics. While survey respondents in Japan routinely rank among the world’s least religious, with fewer than one-­quarter of people in Japan today likely to respond in the affirmative to the question “Do you have religious faith?,” Kōmeitō confounds efforts to characterize Japan as a secular country, given that both parties in the Diet’s ruling coalition rely on Kōmeitō’s religiously motivated activists to retain their seats.1 A label such as Maurice Duverger’s “mass-­based party” potentially fits Kōmeitō, because it was originally meant to describe parties with regular membership and or­gan­ i­ za­ tional structures that appeal to voters by contrasting with elite-­ based parties (Duverger 1954). It is surely a question of definition whether or not “mass” voter support for Kōmeitō exists. In 1964, the year it was founded, Kōmeitō’s representatives referred to their organization as a “party of the masses” (taishū seitō). The book-­length Taishū fukushi o mezashite: Kōmeitō no seisaku (Toward welfare for the masses: Kōmeitō policies) indicates how the party sought mass appeal from its outset (Kōmeitō Seisakukyoku 1964), and Fukushi keizai e no michi (The path to social welfare economics) from 1965, the first

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   203 volume in an early series of books on party policy, set out Kōmeitō’s “third way” between capitalism and Marxism as a means of establishing economic policy for taishū fukushi, or “the social welfare of the masses” (Kōmeitō Seisakukyoku 1965). It is useful to follow Daniel Smith, who suggests that Kōmeitō may be a “small mass party” (Smith 2014, 142). Unlike other competitors that came into being after 1964, it is also relevant that Kōmeitō was created by and for a mass constituency outside of parliament (Lucardie 2018). All of the other approximately two dozen new political parties that have gained Diet seats since the 1960s were the result of secessions from, or fusions of, existing parties. The few remaining parties that were created outside parliament never attained legislative relevance. In terms of party organization, any effort to identify an established category for Kōmeitō faces the challenge of drawing a clear line between the party and Sōka Gakkai. This is not an easy endeavor. With very few exceptions, Kōmeitō politicians at all governmental levels have all been Sōka Gakkai members. Even though Kōmeitō maintains a separate party organization, its subnational bureaucracy parallels Sōka Gakkai’s administrative structure by dividing Japan into the same thirteen geographical regions (hōmen) maintained by the religion.2 Electoral campaigns are Gakkai mainstays. When an election is announced, most regular Gakkai activities are suspended and adherents go to work gathering votes. Kōmeitō politicians are guaranteed support from Gakkai members, principally its Married Women’s Division (fujinbu), who meet at member’s homes, at events in Gakkai facilities, and in other venues to drum up votes for Kōmeitō and its allies and to encourage fellow members to solicit votes from nonmembers (Ehrhardt 2009; McLaughlin 2015). The party’s voting and membership must be understood in terms of Gakkai adherence. In short, Kōmeitō remains defined by its relationship with Sōka Gakkai—a connection that was not severed when the party and religion ended formal ties in 1970. Ideology and party organization dominate most party typologies. In terms of ideology, Kōmeitō at its founding ran on a platform that bore some resemblance to those of left-­leaning European parties. Supporting social welfare, representing the “common people” (minshū or taishū), and advancing pacifism took center stage. Socially and economically marginalized citizens, particularly those who were displaced after moving to urban centers in the postwar decades, were Kōmeitō’s main target group (Asayama 2017; Nakano 2010; Suzuki 1970; Tsukada 2015; White 1970). Consequently, Japanese parties on the left, especially the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), quickly identified Kōmeitō as a principal rival. The newly founded party surged as the latest force in the Left’s already raging battle with Sōka Gakkai. Kōmeitō supporters, who had been battling socialists in elections since the mid-­1950s, not only solicited votes but also targeted JCP members and others leftists for religious conversion. After 1970, when the party platform was purged of religious content, Kōmeitō continued to run on left-­wing policies, such as protesting the legality of Japan’s Self-­Defense Forces (JSDF) and helping to re-­ establish diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic of China.3 From the 1980s, the party shifted to the center, emphasizing its position as a path between socialism and capitalism. Kōmeitō as a “third way,” and Sōka Gakkai as a “third civilization” (daisan bunmei),

204   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin are labels the party and religion initially invoked in the mid-­1960s, when Kōmeitō ­distinguished itself from the LDP, the “spokespeople of finance and big companies,” and the Socialist Party of Japan (SPJ), the “labor union-­centered party.”4 Kōmeitō recognized the JSDF as constitutionally defensible from 1978 and has since steadily compromised on its founding pacifism (Ehrhardt et al.  2014a; Lindgren  2016). Party representatives nonetheless continue to this day to sing the praises of world peace, along with education and humanism—all principles central to Sōka Gakkai. Given its platform, Kōmeitō could be taken at face value as a left-­leaning clientele party. It does not, however, frame itself as participating in ideological conflict or targeting structural causes of socioeconomic inequality.5 Kōmeitō mostly advances modest adjustments to social benefits and characterizes its accomplishments in pragmatic terms that are easily understood by its constituents. Its supporters are closely attended to by the party’s approximately three thousand representatives in subnational legislatures, who adjust policy dependent on their constituents’ local-­level priorities. Other characteristics that differentiate Kōmeitō from parties on the left in other democracies are its social conservatism and a selective emphasis on social welfare needs. While single parents, housewives, senior citizens, and the chronically ill benefit from Kōmeitō policies, most unemployed do not.6 The party tends to not challenge the social convention that men act as primary breadwinners and women serve in the home as caregivers for children and the elderly. Additionally, while individual Kōmeitō politicians will express support for accepting greater numbers of refugees or for recognizing marriage and other equal rights for LGBT+ citizens, the party has not pushed forward legislation that improves legal statuses for these minorities. And, in spite of having claimed to be in favor of giving foreign permanent residents (particularly those of Korean descent) voting rights, the party has never initiated a Diet bill to make this a legal reality.7 Kōmeitō’s stances on two contentious security-­related issues receive the most scholarly and media attention: the shifting role of the JSDF, and attempts to revise Article 9 of the 1947 Constitution, Japan’s famed “peace clause,” to expand JSDF operations and aid the country’s military allies. Differences in security policy between Kōmeitō and the LDP have often led critical observers—a category that is increasingly likely to include Sōka Gakkai members—to assume that the coalition persists to retain power, no matter the cost to Kōmeitō’s founding pacifism. Kōmeitō leaders argue that it is only by staying part of the ruling coalition that the party can act as a brake on hawkish LDP objectives and negotiate compensatory policies that benefit grass-­roots communities. The party’s willingness to vote in favor of security positions advanced by its LDP coalition ally also complicates comparisons between Kōmeitō and left-­wing parties outside Japan.

Buddhist Origins, Explosive Growth We hold the firm conviction that it is only through the singular path of the Buddhist philosophy of absolute pacifism—that is, the superior path of a harmonious fusion of government and Buddhism (ōbutsu myōgō)—that

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   205 the world will attain salvation from the horror of war. Kōmeitō, through the founding ideals of a harmonious fusion of government and Buddhism and Buddhist democracy (buppō minshūshugi), will fundamentally cleanse Japan’s political world, confirm the basis of government by parliamentary democracy, put down deep roots in the masses, and realize the well-­being of  the common people. Furthermore, from the broad position of world nationalism (wārudo nashonarizumu), we solemnly pledge to the people of the nation that it is our ultimate ambition to fight bravely to establish an institution for eternal peace in the world.8

So reads (in part) Kōmeitō’s founding statement of November 17, 1964. Already active in electoral politics for a decade, the Sōka Gakkai adherents who founded the party clearly regarded political engagement as a component of their larger Buddhist mission and as a means of achieving the utopian aim of world peace. At present, there are no obviously religious referents in Kōmeitō’s platform. Understanding Kōmeitō’s origins, however, means taking seriously the doctrinal commitments held dear by its Gakkai founders. It also requires attention to the now generations-­old member custom of treating electioneering on behalf of Kōmeitō and its allies as a component of a religious mission. One way to make sense of the modern humanist references in Kōmeitō’s founding statement is to consider that Sōka Gakkai began not as a religion but as an educational reform movement.9 The Gakkai’s founding is celebrated as November 18, 1930, when its first president, Tsunesaburō Makiguchi (1871–1944), published the first volume of his Sōka kyōikugaku taikei (System of value creation educational study). Two years before this, Makiguchi and his fellow schoolteacher and disciple Jōsei Toda (1900–1958) converted to lay adherence under the temple Buddhist sect Nichiren Shōshū, a minority lineage that follows the teachings of the Japanese reformer Nichiren (1222–1282). By the end of the 1930s, Makiguchi and Toda had transformed their small collective into a Nichiren Shōshū lay society that promoted a hardline defense of Nichiren Buddhist principles, which included intolerance of all teachings save the Lotus Sūtra, understood to be the historical Buddha Śākyamuni’s final sermon. Their orthodox stance led them afoul of Japan’s wartime government, which demanded that all religious organizations enshrine kamifuda (deity talismans) from the Grand Shrine at Ise. Makiguchi steadfastly refused this demand, and in July 1943 he and Toda were arrested for violating the 1925 Public Security Preservation Law. On November 18, 1944, Makiguchi died of malnutrition in Tokyo’s Sugamo Prison. Toda, released from prison in July 1945, set about re-­establishing the Gakkai. Occupation-­era guarantees of religious freedom encouraged Toda in his efforts to reformulate the group as a mass movement centered on a particularly hard-­sell interpretation of shakubuku (literally “break and subdue”), a conversion technique advocated by Nichiren for lands, such as Japan, that slander the Lotus. From May 3, 1951, the day he took the title of second Gakkai president, Toda declared the start of the “Great March of Shakubuku,” a conversion campaign that drove the religion’s membership from a few thousand families to over one million adherent households by his death in April 1958. Shakubuku was a hugely successful conversion practice. However, because it targeted rival religions as “false sects” (jashū) and otherwise relied on aggressive missionizing, it

206   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin also earned Sōka Gakkai a high level of public antipathy. Negative reactions to Sōka Gakkai, and by association to Kōmeitō, remain standard in Japan today. A major reason why Sōka Gakkai gained a massive following during the Great March of Shakubuku was its appeal to disenfranchised people. For converts, the religion was an attractive means of achieving personal power through commitment to legitimacy-­ granting institution-­building endeavors. One of the most important of these was success in electoral politics. Sōka Gakkai entered politics in order to realize a millenarian objective: the construction of a kokuritsu kaidan, or “national ordination platform,” a temple facility to be built at the Nichiren Shōshū headquarters near Mount Fuji to commemorate the conversion of the populace to exclusive embrace of the Lotus Sūtra. Following Nichiren Buddhist dictates, this facility was to be constructed by governmental decree, an imperative that Nichiren followers in modern Japan interpreted as requiring Diet support (Stone 2003). On August 1, 1956, Toda issued an essay titled Ōbutsu myōgōron (On the harmonious union of government and Buddhism), in which he stated that “the only purpose of our going into politics is to erect the kokuritsu kaidan” (Toda 1956, 204). By this point, Gakkai members were running in local elections as in­de­ pend­ent candidates. In November 1954, Sōka Gakkai established a Culture Division (bunkabu) that mobilized members to gather votes for Gakkai administrators who ran for local races in 1955. “It is only by placing Gakkai members in the Diet that the government will reach a consensus to construct a national ordination platform,” an article in Sōka Gakkai’s newspaper Seikyō Shimbun urged.10 Six Gakkai members ran as in­de­pend­ ent candidates for Upper House races in 1956, three of whom were elected (see Figure 11.1). Gakkai supporters violated election laws in their first national-­level campaigns. Members first faced indictment in June 1956, when several were charged with soliciting support through “house-­to-­house campaigning” (kobetsu hōmon), an activity prohibited by Japanese elections law. Election law violations are common in Japan due to draconian legislation that outlaws almost every effective campaign practice, most notably house-­to-­house canvassing, which is standard practice in democracies around the world (Carlson and Reed 2018, chapter 7). In 1957, in an event Sōka Gakkai would come to eulogize as their leader’s “sacrifice for the dharma” (hōnan), then-­Youth Division chief of staff Daisaku Ikeda (1928–) and another Young Men’s Division leader were arrested for directing Division adherents in Osaka to distribute cigarettes and caramels in exchange for votes. Ikeda was arrested in July 1957 and jailed for two weeks. He was ultimately cleared of all charges in January 1962. Since then, the “Osaka incident,” as it is known within the religion, has been treated as confirmation that Ikeda—and not Sōka Gakkai’s bitter rival, Nichiren Shōshū—is the rightful inheritor of Nichiren’s dharma. After Ikeda took the post of third Gakkai president on May 3, 1960, Gakkai politicians increased their electoral gains. To counter an image advanced by the Japanese press of Sōka Gakkai as a dangerous “newly arisen sect” (shinkō shūkyō) that was taking advantage of Japan’s fledgling postwar democracy to advance a constitution-­violating religious aim, the Gakkai administration urged its members to embrace an ethic of “clean elections” (kōmei senkyo). The adjective “clean” was retained when Sōka Gakkai or­gan­ized its upper house members into the Kōmei Seiji Renmei (League for Just and

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   207 50

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45 40

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Figure 11.1.  Early electoral results: seats in upper and lower house elections (1956–1969).

Fair Politics) in November 1961. In May 1964, Ikeda announced the “separation of religion and politics” (shukyo to seiji no bunri), meaning that henceforth the Gakkai should be a purely religious organization and all political activities were to be outsourced to a new political party called “Kōmeitō,” or the “Clean Government Party” (Kōmeitōshi Hensa Iinkai 2014, 35). After Kōmeitō was founded on November 17 of that year, it prepared to run candidates in both the upper and lower houses. By June 1969, Kōmeitō had 2,088 members in regional legislatures. During the 1960s, it was unclear if the fast rise of the party that pushed for a “Buddhist Democracy” would ever peak. However, the 1970s proved to be a high-­water mark. Taichi Asayama (2017, 21–27) convincingly tracks Gakkai membership growth alongside the economic rise and concomitant urbanizing of postwar Japan, noting that adherent numbers and Kōmeitō popular vote percentages plateaued at almost the same time that the Japanese economy stagnated following the oil shocks of the early 1970s.11 Another important reason for Kōmeitō’s stagnation, overlying socioeconomic factors, was a scandal that came to be labeled the genron shuppan bōgai mondai, or “problem over obstructing freedom of expression and the press.” It was revealed that Kōmeitō politicians had recruited LDP assistance in 1969 to quash the publication of a forthcoming book titled I Denounce Sōka Gakkai (Sōka gakkai o kiru). Following the revelation of this attempted intervention, Sōka Gakkai and Kōmeitō officially disaggregated. On May 3, 1970, Ikeda declared that both the religion and the party renounced plans to construct a national ordination platform. New internal regulations for Kōmeitō eliminated Buddhist language and replaced it with a pledge to uphold the 1947 Constitution. Having lost its raison d’être as a means of realizing a religious objective, and now required to operate as an administratively distinct political party, Kōmeitō struggled

208   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin after its separation from Sōka Gakkai, both in terms of policy formation and voter mobilization. It first positioned itself closer to left-­leaning parties in the 1970s, and ultimately responded to the growing affluence of its support base by branding itself as a centrist “third way,” starting in the 1980s. Until it joined coalitions in the 1990s, Kōmeitō remained a comparatively marginal opposition party in the national Diet.

Kōmeitō in Coalition Following years of mounting conflict between Daisaku Ikeda and the Shōshū priesthood, Sōka Gakkai and Nichiren Shōshū underwent an acrimonious schism. In November 1991, the sect excommunicated in excess of 90 percent of its parishioners when it barred Gakkai members from its facilities. Sōka Gakkai was still reverberating from the split’s immediate aftereffects when Kōmeitō politicians began partnering with other parties. Kōmeitō participated in an anti-­LDP/anti-­Communist multiparty coalition that formed in August 1993. The new coalition pushed the LDP out of power for the first time since its founding in 1955.12 This first-­ever ascendance of a party founded by a religion to the ranks of government offered ample ammunition for its political rivals. While four Kōmeitō politicians filled cabinet positions under Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, the LDP mobilized religious rivals of Sōka Gakkai, like-­minded politicians, journalists, and others to fight what they decried as a breach of Article 20 of Japan’s constitution, which asserts that “no religious organization shall receive any privileges from the State, nor exercise any political authority.” For the first time in postwar history, Kōmeitō’s critics claimed, a religious group now had direct access to governmental power. Kōmeitō argued that it was not a religious party, had not once pushed policy on religion, and that political opponents were seeking to violate constitutional guarantees of freedom of expression and association to suppress a religious organization (Klein and Reed 2014a, 219–222).13 Kōmeitō also found itself on the defensive on another front. As part of a comprehensive legislative package to reform political competition, Kōmeitō voted in favor of a new electoral system initiated by the Hosokawa government that ultimately worked to the party’s significant disadvantage. On the one hand, the proportional representation (PR) tier (200 seats) of the new system created the option to vote Kōmeitō everywhere in the country, whereas previously voters in districts without a Kōmeitō candidate did not have this choice; based on an average of 6.6 million votes, Kōmeitō could expect to win an average of twenty PR seats under the new system.14 This, however, did not compensate for the losses accrued by the newly introduced three hundred single-­member districts (SMDs); Kōmeitō could not hope to win a single one of these on its own as a small party. The reform package was passed by the Diet in early 1994 and foreshadowed a future with fewer Kōmeitō lower house seats.

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   209 In April 1994, Prime Minister Hosokawa resigned, making way for his successor Tsutomu Hata, who could only lead a minority government after the SPJ and the New Harbinger Party (NHP) left the coalition. Kōmeitō stayed on, this time filling seven cabinet positions, albeit for only two months. Hata resigned in late June 1994, allowing an LDP-­SPJ-­NHP coalition to take over. After its short stint as a ruling coalition member, Kōmeitō attempted to cooperate with other opposition forces in order to adapt to the new electoral system and possibly defeat the new LDP-­led coalition to return to government. All of Kōmeitō’s fifty-­two lower house members joined Ichirō Ozawa and other parties in late 1994 to create the NFP, an alliance that ran joint candidates in most of the single-­member districts. As it maintained its independence on the subnational level and in the upper house, Kōmeitō improved its electoral chances considerably through this lower house alliance. As a potentially strong new rival, the NFP was attacked by Liberal Democrats and their allies. Their attacks on the party Kōmeitō joined were aided by calamitous events. In March 1995, the apocalyptic sect Aum Shinrikyō assaulted the Tokyo subways with sarin gas, murdering at least a dozen people, injuring thousands more, and triggering an intense moral panic in Japan over fears of religious activism. Panic about Aum blurred with animosity for all so-­called “new religions,” and indeed inspired popular suspicion of religion in general. The LDP capitalized on this anti-­religious surge to run a massive campaign against Sōka Gakkai and, by extension, Kōmeitō (Hardacre 2007; Yuki 1997). In the midst of high-­pitched public outcry against “nefarious” religious organizations, the LDP not only threatened to reform the legal framework for religious organizations, including rolling back tax relief for religious activities guaranteed by the 1951 Religious Juridical Persons Law, but to also subpoena Sōka Gakkai’s Honorary President Ikeda for questioning in the Diet. This provoked fierce resistance from Kōmeitō and Sōka Gakkai and led to a tense stand-­off in which Kōmeitō House of Councillors members linked arms to prevent politicians from carrying out a vote that would have granted the subpoena. While the LDP did not ultimately follow through on its threat to the Gakkai leader, its political onslaught ensured that the religion and its affiliated party were made keenly aware of their vulnerability to governmental authority.15 The NFP failed to win a majority in the 1996 general elections, and ten of fifty-­two former Kōmeitō Diet members lost their seats. The attempt to establish a strong competitor to the LDP came to an end when the NFP dissolved in late 1997, leaving Kōmeitō without allies in an electoral system averse to small parties. Grim electoral prospects, recent direct threats to Sōka Gakkai’s Honorary President, and a chance to return to government appear to have been major motivations for Kōmeitō to consider the LDP’s offer to form a coalition.16 At first, Kōmeitō’s Gakkai voter base was largely opposed to this proposed arrangement. Efforts by Kōmeitō politicians to persuade Gakkai members relied to a significant extent on appeals to “common conservative ideals” and the prospect of “running the country.”17 It took local Kōmeitō and Sōka Gakkai branches years to muster broad member cooperation with the LDP, a party they had denigrated for decades as the epitome of dirty politics. Thanks to Liberal Democratic support in

210   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin 70 60

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Figure 11.2.  Number of Kōmeitō seats in the lower house (1967–2017). Note: In 1996, Kōmeitō candidates ran under the NFP party label. This year also marked the first time the post-­1994 reforms electoral system went into effect.

elections, Kōmeitō was able to maintain a stronger presence in the lower house than it would have on its own, though it still did not reach pre-­1994 reform levels (see Figure 11.2). As part of the ruling coalition, Kōmeitō has pushed for electoral reform but has never overcome LDP resistance to revise the system in its favor. Since the mid-­1980s, Sōka Gakkai has claimed a membership of just over 8.2 million adherent households, and it has maintained a steady membership claim of 8.27 million households in Japan since the early 2000s. This figure is highly exaggerated; it is certainly not equal to the number of politically active members, and it is unclear how many non-­Gakkai members vote for Kōmeitō in any given election.18 We do know that, since 2000, LDP candidates have encouraged their supporters to vote for Kōmeitō candidates either in the PR tier or in SMDs. As Figure 11.3 shows, party support since 2000 increased for five years but then dropped considerably, falling to approximately 6.5 million votes in 2019, the lowest number in national elections during the coalition era with the LDP. We discuss potential reasons for this drop in the next section.19 Coalition theory points to two common motivations for coalition participants: office-­ seeking and policy promotion (Bucur 2016; Budge and Laver 1986). Kōmeitō seems to be an office-­seeking outlier. Hasunuma and Klein (2014) demonstrate that Kōmeitō has consistently filled only one cabinet position, even though its share of parliamentary seats and Gamson’s Law would warrant two.20 This discrepancy is not taken up in media reporting or in open discussion between the coalition partners. Secondly, coalition theory assumes that parties join ruling coalitions to push their policies. This is demonstrably true for Kōmeitō. Its platforms have consisted largely of

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   211 10 9

Total Votes in Millions

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

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Figure 11.3.  Number of total votes in PR for Kōmeitō (lower and upper houses, 2000–2019). Grey: Lower House. Black: Upper House. Note: Every twelve years, in the year of the inoshishi, or boar, in the Chinese zodiac, nationwide local elections (tōitsu chihō senkyo) and upper house elections are held within a few months of each other, leading to Kōmeitō supporter fatigue that contributes to lower turnout. The 2007 and 2019 results should be viewed with this in mind.

proposals intended to support low- and middle-­income household budgets, access to social welfare, and affordable education. In stark contrast to the LDP, Kōmeitō con­sist­ ently pushes numerous small-­scale policies that originate from Kōmeitō’s continued communication with local voters, small- and medium-­sized enterprises, and interest groups. Over the course of 2019, for example, the party’s micropolicies were framed as the result of Kōmeitō’s “power to listen to small voices” (chisana koe o kiku chikara). They included the installation of air conditioning in public schools, reducing food waste, relief measures for allergy and other disease sufferers, and increasing the availability of baby formula, to name just a few. In previous years, Kōmeitō ran on its “power to realize” (jitsugen ryoku) comparably modest policies. When it comes to narrating reasons for perpetuating their coalition with the LDP, Kōmeitō leaders regularly justify their party’s alliance as the only way to realize policies that affect the lives of its constituents, and they stress that Kōmeitō serves as the only buffer against the LDP’s most hawkish and socially unjust impulses. Judging from its capacity to modulate the national security laws that passed the Diet in 2015 and its role in maintaining a reduced national consumption tax on daily necessities, Kōmeitō’s claim to function as a “brake” (hadome) on the LDP is not baseless. In spite of early skepticism about the coalition regarding stark policy differences between the partners, Kōmeitō and the LDP have been able to pursue most of their objectives and achieve considerable policy gains with a high degree of complementarity. Both are able to spin legislative initiatives in different ways to appeal to their contrasting clienteles, making the coalition a

212   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin viable political instrument in electoral and policy arenas. The glaring exceptions to smooth interparty cooperation are security issues and concerns about constitutional revision.

Mobilization Strategies, Organized Votes, and Constitutional Concerns Research on voting behavior in Japan points to the significance of soshikihyō, or “or­gan­ ized votes” (Reed 2011; Shinoda 2013). These are votes gathered by latent interest groups such as labor unions, agricultural cooperatives, industry associations, and religious organizations that otherwise pursue objectives outside electoral politics when they are not mobilizing for a candidate, party, or legislative goal. For decades, Sōka Gakkai has served as the biggest and most influential discrete organized voting bloc in Japan, an electoral force upon which both Kōmeitō and LDP candidates depend. The governing coalition divides the lower house SMDs between the LDP and Kōmeitō to avoid direct competition between their candidates. While Kōmeitō runs nine or ten candidates in most general elections, the LDP fields approximately 280, almost all of whom are recommended early in electoral campaigns by Kōmeitō representatives to local Sōka Gakkai branches. In exchange for the LDP’s promise to ask its voters to choose Kōmeitō in the PR tier, Sōka Gakkai provides the votes Liberal Democrats often need to put their candidates ahead of their rivals. Common wisdom credits the religion with adding an average of 20,000 votes to endorsed LDP candidates running in each SMD, making support from Sōka Gakkai vital to Liberal Democrats fighting close electoral races.21 Kōmeitō’s highly organized voter base increases its relative value when overall turnout decreases. This negative correlation has made Kōmeitō valuable to the LDP, given that Kōmeitō supporters have historically contrasted markedly with the overall trend in Japan toward political disinterest, frustration, and electoral absenteeism. Figure  11.4 illustrates the relationship between lower overall voter turnout and higher vote share for Kōmeitō for all lower house elections of the coalition period until 2017. Election data do not fully explain Sōka Gakkai’s relationship with Kōmeitō. It is well known that the religion serves as Kōmeitō’s core electoral machinery, but research into how Sōka Gakkai and Kōmeitō communicate about electioneering and policymaking is hampered by scarce data and a lack of transparency.22 We do know that vote-­gathering by Sōka Gakkai is based on member understanding that elections are a ritual undertaking as significant as chanting the Lotus Sūtra, proselytizing, or soliciting subscriptions for the Seikyō Shimbun. Married Women’s Division members are the most energetic campaigners for Kōmeitō and are without question the engine that powers the party (Ehrhardt 2014). Persuading nonmembers to vote for Kōmeitō is known within Sōka Gakkai as f-­tori or f-­hyō, “friend-­getting” or “friend votes.” Those in the religion who are responsible for

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   213 75

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Komeito Share of Votes in PR

Figure 11.4.  Voter turnout and Kōmeitō vote share (lower house elections, 2000–2017).

leading political activities understand that messaging and talking points have to be kept simple. Kōmeitō’s aversion to closely timed elections indicates the extent to which Gakkai leaders seek to carefully manage members’ time and energy resources. They are also concerned that simultaneously competing against the LDP in subnational elections while they join forces with the LDP in national elections is liable to confuse voters; since 2017, for example, Kōmeitō has allied against the LDP with the local party Tomin Fāsuto no Kai in the Metropolitan Tokyo assembly while it has allied with the LDP in the national Diet. Of particular importance are “year of the boar” elections, or Chinese zodiacal years when nationwide local elections and upper house elections coincide within a few months of each other (see Figure 11.3); this occurred most recently in 2019. Whenever the dissolution of the lower house and snap elections are discussed, the coalition considers Sōka Gakkai’s electoral power reserves; the more advanced knowledge about an election date the religion receives, the more effective is its campaigning and f-­tori. During every electoral campaign, for the smallest municipality up to the national Diet, Gakkai meetings, which are typically attended mostly by Married Women’s Division members, are used to get out the vote. F-­tori and exclusive access to Gakkai meetings provide Kōmeitō with a large pool of highly motivated campaigners. Because Sōka Gakkai maintains careful records of its local-­level membership, Kōmeitō can predict with higher precision than any other Japanese party how many votes each candidate can expect to receive, and therefore how many candidates to run (Smith 2014). These voter resources are finite, and they require careful maintenance. Sōka Gakkai’s well-­known electoral strength now appears to be facing daunting challenges. Socio-­demographic change and shifts in the religion’s leadership have affected

214   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin Gakkai members’ electoral behavior. Compared to the first decades after World War II, when members were largely less educated than the national average and tended to be employed in lower-­paid jobs, newer generations have diversified to reflect Japanese society as a whole (Asayama  2017; Ehrhardt et al.  2014a; Nakano  2010; Suzuki  1970; White 1970). One consequence of upward social mobility has been a diversification of political opinions. The religion’s membership is also subject to the rapid aging of Japan’s overall population, a condition that affects Gakkai mobilization and campaigning. Additionally, younger members have only experienced Kōmeitō as part of the national government, and consequently do not share their parents’ memories of an adversarial LDP in the Diet. Diverse expectations of Kōmeitō among members are amplified by the rise of new social media (NSM). While the older generations are accustomed to receiving political information from traditional media and Gakkai meetings, younger members are, like their nonmember contemporaries, using NSM to create their own echo chambers, cooperate with others, and ramp up political interest. NSM open up communication channels to opinions outside of the organization. Kōmeitō staffers must therefore invest an ever-­increasing amount of time and energy into driving talking points home and controlling narratives. These shifts underline the fact that Sōka Gakkai has never been a monolithic voting bloc whose members trade critical thinking for adherence. Based on electoral data and ethnographic engagement with local-­level Gakkai communities, we can postulate that member discontent with policy shifts has reduced member party support at different points in Kōmeitō’s history (Fisker-­ Nielsen  2012; Klein and McLaughlin  2018; McLaughlin 2015). Member conflict with Kōmeitō has flared up most obviously in matters pertaining to the JSDF and Article 9. Since it joined the ruling coalition, Kōmeitō, like junior coalition partners in other democracies, has been forced to navigate between incommensurate demands of its voter base and those of its senior coalition partner. While the LDP has sought to radically overhaul Japan’s defense policy, Kōmeitō’s voter base has included outspoken idealists who call on their party to retain its pacifist commitments. During the tenure of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001–2006), Kōmeitō was criticized by Gakkai members when it supported the 2001 PKO law, which led to the 2002 Persian Gulf and 2004 Iraq JSDF dispatches. Each of these incidents triggered small but widely publicized adherent protests (Fisker-­ ­ Nielsen  2012; Lindgren 2016). From the second Abe administration, Kōmeitō again faced security-­ related policy demands from the LDP. In September 2015, Kōmeitō voted for eleven LDP-­drafted laws that effectively allow the Japanese government to dispatch the JSDF in aid of military allies, based on shūdanteki jieiken, or the “right of collective self-­defense.” According to critics, this legislation marked a clear departure from constitutional interpretation that had been in place since 1972. Kōmeitō pointed out to its supporters that it had negotiated preconditions into these new “security laws” (anpo kanren hōan) that required direct threats to “the existence of Japan” before the Diet can approve a JSDF dispatch. While Kōmeitō’s party leadership argued that “so-­called collective self-­ defense . . . is neither recognized now nor in the future,” Prime Minister Abe’s interpretation differed (Klein 2015).

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   215 Kōmeitō’s recent shifts in its defense of Article 9 have resulted in correspondingly fluid campaign promises. During the 2013 upper house election, the party manifesto called for two potential additions to Article 9, one acknowledging the JSDF as the smallest military organization necessary for defending the country, and the other demanding that the country’s foreign policy be based on pacifist ideals (Kōmeitō 2013, 33). By ­contrast, in its platform for the 2017 lower house election the party remained noncommittal on changing Article 9 (Kōmeitō 2017), and during the campaign for the upper house election in 2019 its manifesto only stated that constitutional revision “should be discussed carefully from now on” (Kōmeitō 2019).23 The party has consistently responded to its Gakkai critics by reemphasizing its self-­declared role as an “opposition within the coalition” (renritsu no naka no yatō) that holds back the LDP’s most egregious intentions, and by pointing to ways its concessions on security matters have earned LDP support for its social welfare legislation.24 Critics who question Kōmeitō’s alliance with the LDP, and even if Sōka Gakkai should be engaged in politics at all, raise doubts about whether Sōka Gakkai still needs Kōmeitō to protect the religion from unfriendly state intervention. Targeting it endured in the mid-­1990s raised fear within Sōka Gakkai that it may lose its status as a religious juridical person (shūkyō hōjin), and with it a favorable tax status crucial to the religion’s financial base (Carlson  2014; McLaughlin  2020). However, after Daisaku Ikeda disappeared from public life, fear of political threats to Sōka Gakkai may have declined. Rumors about the status of Ikeda’s health, and about whether or not he is still alive, have swirled through the tabloid press and among Gakkai members since he was last seen in public on May 13, 2010 (McLaughlin 2019). Ikeda is revered as Kōmeitō’s founder, and support for the party is conceived by adherents as ongaeshi, or a “return of obligation” (Nakano  2016) to their mentor. In Ikeda’s absence, competing visions of what it means to follow Ikeda’s teachings have flourished, and rival interpretations of how best to protect the Honorary President’s intentions have seen the Gakkai membership divide into competing constituencies (Klein and McLaughlin 2018). Jun Nakano (2016, 280) reported that the idea of reducing engagement in the political arena to refocus the group on its religious priorities has been under consideration by Gakkai leaders for some time. Political activities may become increasingly unattractive propositions to potential converts and long-­time members alike. Diverging political opinions, discontent with LDP policies, a power vacuum at the top of the Gakkai, and a decline in strength of the Married Women’s Division driven by demographic shifts are liable to make it increasingly challenging for the religion to maintain its historically unmatched voter mobilization levels (Asayama 2017; Nakano 2016, 282).

216   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin

Conclusion: Religion, Politics, and Democracy In a political system plagued by low voter turnout and political disinterest, Kōmeitō has consistently moved millions of citizens to vote and raised political participation and awareness. Its politicians on the national and subnational levels have displayed a political responsiveness that is crucial for the health of a democracy. And, in Japan’s volatile party system, Kōmeitō is one of very few stable actors. While it began as a component of an eschatological religious mission, it has developed into a “normal” party, one that seeks power to push voter-­friendly policies and win elections. While its close relationship with Sōka Gakkai remains part of the public perception of Kōmeitō, the party’s image has nonetheless changed. The administrative split between the religion and the party in 1970 has most likely contributed less to perception shifts than Kōmeitō’s work in government since 1999. As junior coalition partner, Kōmeitō has shown no ambition to privilege Sōka Gakkai in Japanese politics, and a considerable portion of Japanese voters today may not be aware that Kōmeitō was created to achieve a Nichiren Buddhist objective. Popular unease persists about cooperation between a highly mobilized lay religion and a ruling coalition party, but there is no evidence that Kōmeitō pursues a religious agenda. For more than two decades, Kōmeitō politicians have appeared alongside their LDP colleagues at public functions, where they have addressed policy issues unrelated to religious organizations or doctrinal teachings. Kōmeitō-­initiated aid for the tsunami-­stricken region in Japan’s northeast in 2011 improved the party’s public image; disaster victims appreciated the assistance, and some perceived the party, and volunteers from Sōka Gakkai, as allies (Ushio Henshūbu 2011). An increasing number of interest groups have grown accustomed to Kōmeitō as a partner to approach with demands and initiatives, sometimes to the extent that LDP politicians consider their junior coalition partner as a competitor for organized votes (Yomiuri Shimbun, October 11, 2019). The fading image of Kōmeitō as a religious party may be one reason why it is not a priority for those who research postwar constitutional issues that pertain to religion. Students of the tense relationship between religion and politics in Japan instead tend to focus on national and international furor triggered by Yasukuni Shrine, imperial rites, the phenomenon controversially labeled “State Shinto,” and the postwar constitutional consequences of religion-­proximate ideology that was formulated in imperial Japan (Rots and Teeuwen 2017; Thomas 2018). Kōmeitō nonetheless deserves more attention than it has received as a religion-­affiliated actor that continues to shape Japanese politics at all levels. Persistent descriptions of Sōka Gakkai as a stable group of believers whose voting behavior is controlled by Kōmeitō, or summaries of Kōmeitō as the political wing of a religion, are inaccurate. Given the extent to which both Kōmeitō and the LDP rely on

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   217 Sōka Gakkai votes, the coalition’s future depends on understanding the evolving, and diversifying, expectations of Gakkai members and Kōmeitō politicians. Should Sōka Gakkai pull back from political engagement, tensions that inevitably emerge when a utopian religious worldview meets the compromise-­laden world of politics would decline. However, so too would the power of Gakkai members to shape elections. And should the new Gakkai generation not take up their parents’ political zeal, Kōmeitō’s key role in ensuring the coalition’s dominant presence will certainly undergo a profound transformation. The future of both parties in the national coalition will be determined to a significant extent by the actions of the generation of Gakkai adherents who will come of age after the death of their charismatic leader.

Notes 1. For a summary of quantitative research on religious affiliation in Japan, see Roemer (2009) and NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute (2015). Recent survey data that pertain to Sōka Gakkai and Kōmeitō are cited in McLaughlin (2019). 2. Information on Kōmeitō committees and other party bodies can be found at www.komei. or.jp/about/board/. Its regional structure is laid out in chapter 7 of the Kōmeitō party statute at www.komei.or.jp/about/agreement/. For information on Sōka Gakkai’s administrative structure, see https://www.sokanet.jp/info/soshiki_kikou/ and McLaughlin (2019). 3. Daisaku Ikeda, as third Sōka Gakkai president, also made diplomatic inroads by forging a personal relationship with Chinese premiere Zhou Enlai through two visits to Beijing in 1974; he had called for diplomatic normalization at Gakkai meetings from 1968. See Nankai University Zhou Enlai Research Center (2002) and Sōka Gakkai Nenpyō Hensan Iinkai (1976). When Premiere Hu Jintao visited Tokyo in 2008, he took time to meet with Ikeda, by then the Gakkai’s Honorary President, indicating long-­term good relations maintained between the religion’s leadership and the Chinese government. Ikeda clashed with Kōmeitō politician Yoshikatsu Takeiri in the early 1970s on how best to push for normalization, and who should take credit for it, and this conflict contributed to Takeiri’s ultimate ouster from both Kōmeitō and Sōka Gakkai. See Shimada and Yano (2010) and Nakano (2016). This clash soon after the administrative separation of the religion and party indicates that the administrative split between Sōka Gakkai and Kōmeitō was not simply a pro forma separation. 4. Kōmeitōshi hensa iinkai (2014, 39). See also Dator (1969). 5. See Kōmeitō’s “New Declaration” (shinsengen), which affirms the “spirit of the party’s founding” as its “identity,” at www.komei.or.jp/about/declaration/ (November 2019). See also Kōmeitōshi hensa iinkai (2014). 6. See, for example, pledges in the Kōmeitō manifesto for the July 2019 upper house campaign: https://www.komei.or.jp/campaign/sanin2019/_assets/pdf/manifesto2019.pdf. 7. The 2007 Kōmeitō manifesto called for granting long-­term residents the right to vote in local elections: https://www.komei.or.jp/policy/policy/pdf/jutenseisaku2007.pdf. Party leaders announced that they intended to propose legislation in this regard after the Democratic Party of Japan took office in 2009, but shelved this plan that October (Yomiuri Shimbun, October 31, 2009). Kōmeitō manifestos since the party returned to the national government in 2012 have not focused on this policy.

218   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin 8. Kōmeitō 1964. See also McLaughlin (2014, 67–68) for a more complete translation of the founding statement. Ōbutsu is most clearly translated as “government and Buddhism” in this context, but a literal translation could be “king/sovereign and Buddha.” 9. For treatments of Kōmeitō and Sōka Gakkai history, see Asayama (2017), Ehrhardt et al. (2014a), Fisker-­ Nielsen (2012), McLaughlin (2019), Nakano (2010,  2016), Takahashi (2018), Tamano (2008), Tōkyō Daigaku Hokkekyō Kenkyūkai (1962), Tsukada (2015), White (1970), and other sources cited below. 10. Seikyō Shimbun, April 3, 1955. See also Hori (1999). 11. See also Suzuki (1970), Tamano (2008), and White (1970). 12. For a detailed explanation of the series of coalitions and other alliances Kōmeitō joined at the national level before entering into partnership with the LDP in 1999, see Klein and Reed (2014a). See also Christensen (2000), Reed (2003), and Shirakawa (2000). 13. For discussions of the “April Society,” a veritable who’s who of political and religious powerbrokers that coalesced in reaction to Komeitō’s presence in government, see Klein (2012), Klein and Reed (2014a), and McLaughlin (2012). See also Christensen (2000) for analysis of party cooperation in the 1990s. 14. We assume the average number of total votes won by Kōmeitō in the PR tier of the eight upper house elections since the official separation from Sōka Gakkai in 1970 to be an acceptable proxy for this calculation. 15. The 1996 revisions to the 1951 Religious Juridical Persons Law, dubbed the “Aum laws” and ostensibly drafted in response to Aum Shinrikyō, were in fact aimed at Sōka Gakkai. See Klein (2012), LoBreglio (1997), McLaughlin (2012), and Yuki (1997). 16. According to Akiko Shimizu, writing for NHK’s Seiji magajin in October 2019, it was ­former prime minister Noboru Takeshita who in 1998 initiated talks regarding a possible coalition with Kōmeitō’s then-­leader Takenori Kanzaki (www.nhk.or.jp/politics/?utm _int=detail_contents_news-­link_001). 17. Klein interview with former Kōmeitō Diet member Chikara Sakaguchi, Tokyo, January 31, 2011. 18. The number of people in Japan who self-­describe as Sōka Gakkai members in Japan most likely comprise ~2% of the population. See Roemer (2009) and McLaughlin (2019). 19. For comprehensive analyses of general elections in Japan, consult the Japan Decides series edited by Robert Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, Ethan Scheiner, and Daniel M. Smith. See in particular Pekkanen et al. (2018). 20. Kōmeitō does fill vice-­ministerial positions equivalent to its coalition seat share. 21. Katsuei Hirasawa, member of the lower house for the LDP since 1996, estimated Sōka Gakkai’s support for Liberal Democrats on average to be around 20,000 votes (Klein interview, November 11, 2010, Tokyo). Newspapers and magazines cite similar numbers (Shūkan asahi, December 12, 2014, 18; Asahi Shimbun, December 21, 2019; Japan Times, December 29, 2019). See also Liff and Maeda (2019) for analysis of the LDP’s deep reliance on Gakkai voters to retain the party’s majority—not only its super-­majority—in both Diet houses. 22. Sōka Gakkai does not allow access to its surveys of members’ political opinions. However, as the Yomiuri Shimbun (May 4, 2018) reported, such surveys are being conducted within the religion. See also Nakano (2016). 23. In June 2017, Kōmeitō voted in favor of a controversial anti-­conspiracy law that lacked precise provisions of criminal liability and consequently granted considerable governmental discretionary power. Critical Gakkai members pointed to the irony of Kōmeitō consenting to this legislation, noting its resemblance to the 1925 Public Security Preservation Law that

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   219 was used to imprison the Gakkai’s first president, Tsunesaburō Makiguchi. See Ryūkyū Shinpō, July 23, 2019, and McLaughlin (forthcoming). 24. For example, when Kōmeitō voted for the JSDF troop dispatch to Iraq in 2003, the LDP agreed to extend the recipient group of families entitled to child allowance. The introduction of a reduced consumption tax for daily necessities in 2019 was reportedly a concession by Prime Minister Abe to gain Kōmeitō’s consent to the security laws passed in 2015 (Asahi Shimbun, December 22, 2019).

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220   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin Hasunuma, Linda, and Axel Klein. 2014. “Kōmeitō in Coalition.” In Kōmeitō: Politics and Religion in Japan, edited by George Ehrhardt, Axel Klein, Levi McLaughlin, and Steven R. Reed, 240–268. Berkeley, CA: Institute of East Asian Studies. Hori Yukio. (1973) 1999. Kōmeitōron [On Kōmeitō]. Tokyo: Nansōsha. Klein, Axel. 2012. “Twice Bitten, Once Shy: Religious Organizations and Politics after the Aum Attacks.” Japanese Journal of Religious Studies 39, no. 1: 105–126. Klein, Axel. 2015. “Kōmeitō: Rock ‘n’ Row the Coalition Boat.” In Japan Decides 2014, edited by Robert Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, and Ethan Scheiner, 72–86. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Klein, Axel, and Levi McLaughlin. 2018. “Kōmeitō 2017: New Complications.” In Japan Decides 2017, edited by Robert Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, Ethan Scheiner, and Daniel M. Smith, 53–76. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Klein, Axel, and Steven R. Reed. 2014a. “Anti-Kōmeitō Countermobilizations.” In Kōmeitō: Politics and Religion in Japan, edited by George Ehrhardt, Axel Klein, Levi McLaughlin, and Steven R. Reed, 215–239. Berkeley, CA: Institute of East Asian Studies. Klein, Axel, and Steven R. Reed. 2014b. “Religious Groups in Japanese Electoral Politics.” In Kōmeitō: Politics and Religion in Japan, edited by George Ehrhardt, Axel Klein, Levi McLaughlin, and Steven R. Reed, 25–50. Berkeley, CA: Institute of East Asian Studies. Kōmeitō. 1964. Printed transcript of founding statement. Kōmeitō. 2013. San’insen jūten seisaku 2013 [Major policy points for the 2013 House of Councillors election]. https://www.komei.or.jp/policy/manifesto/2013.html. Kōmeitō. 2017. 2017 shūinsen jūten seisaku (manifesuto) [2017 major policy points for the House of Representatives election (manifesto)]. https://www.komei.or.jp/campaign/shuin2017/ manifesto/. Kōmeitō. 2019. Shūinsen 2019 manifesuto [House of Representatives election 2019 manifesto]. https://www.komei.or.jp/campaign/sanin2019/policy. Kōmeitō Seisakukyoku, ed. 1964. Taishū fukushi o mezashite (1) [Toward welfare for the masses (1)]. Tokyo: Kōmeitō. Kōmeitō Seisakukyoku, ed. 1965. Fukushi keizai e no michi (1): fukushi keizairon no seiritsu [The path to social welfare economics: The formation of social welfare economics theory]. Tokyo: Kōmeitō. Kōmeitō shi hensa iinkai, ed. 2014. Kōmeitō 50 nen no ayumi [Kōmeitō’s 50-year path]. Tokyo: Kōmeitō Kikanshi Iinkai. Liff, Adam, and Ko Maeda. 2019. “Electoral Incentives, Policy Compromises, and Coalition Durability: Japan’s LDP-Komeito Government in a Mixed Electoral System.” Japanese Journal of Political Science 20, no. 1: 53–73. Lindgren, Petter. 2016. “Kōmeitō’s Security Ideals and Collective Self-Defense: Betwixt Pacifism and Compromises.” East Asia 33: 233–254. LoBreglio, John. 1997. “The Revisions to the Religious Corporations Law: An Introduction and Annotated Translation.” Japanese Religions 22, no. 1, 38–59. Lucardie, Paul. 2018. “Zur Typologie der politischen Parteien” [On the typology of political parties]. In Handbuch der politischen Parteien [Handbook of political parties], 3rd ed., edited by Frank Decker and Viola Neu, 41–56. Wiesbaden: Springer VS. McLaughlin, Levi. 2012. “Did Aum Change Everything? What Soka Gakkai before, during, and after the Aum Shinrikyō Affair Tells Us about the Persistent ‘Otherness’ of New Religions in Japan.” Japanese Journal of Religious Studies 39, no. 1: 51–75. McLaughlin, Levi. 2014. “Electioneering as Religious Practice: A History of Sōka Gakkai’s Political Activities to 1970.” In Kōmeitō: Politics and Religion in Japan, edited by George

Kōmeitō: The Party and Its Place in Japanese Politics   221 Ehrhardt, Axel Klein, Levi McLaughlin, and Steven R. Reed, 51–82. Berkeley, CA: Institute of East Asian Studies. McLaughlin, Levi. 2015. “Komeito’s Soka Gakkai Protestors and Supporters: Religious Motivations for Political Activism in Contemporary Japan.” Asia-Pacific Journal 13, no. 41.1. https://apjjf.org/-Levi-McLaughlin/4386. McLaughlin, Levi. 2019. Soka Gakkai’s Human Revolution: The Rise of a Mimetic Nation in Modern Japan. Honolulu: University of Hawai‘i Press. McLaughlin, Levi. 2020. “The Soka Gakkai Economy: Measuring Cycles of Exchange That Power Japan’s Largest Buddhist Lay Organization.” In Buddhism and Business: Merit, Material Wealth, and Morality in the Global Market Economy, edited by Trine Brox and Elizabeth Williams-Oerberg, 76–92. Honolulu: University of Hawai‘i Press. McLaughlin, Levi. Forthcoming. “Soka Gakkai’s Impact on Constitutional Revision Attempts.” In Civic Activism on Japanese Constitutional Revision, edited by Alexis Dudden et al. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Nakano Tsuyoshi. 2010. “Minshū shūkyō to shite no Sōka gakkai: Shakaisō to kokka to no kankei kara” [Sōka Gakkai as religion of the people: From the perspective of social class and the state]. Shūkyō to shakai 16: 111–142. Nakano Jun. 2016. Sōka Gakkai/Kōmeitō no kenkyū: Jikō renritsu seiken no naizai ronri [Research on Sōka Gakkai/Kōmeitō: The internal logic of the LDP/Kōmeitō coalition government]. Tokyo: Iwanami Shoten. Nankai University Zhou Enlai Research Center, ed. 2002. Shū Onrai to Ikeda Daisaku [Zhou Enlai and Daisaku Ikeda]. Tokyo: Asahi Sonorama. NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute, ed. 2015. Gendai Nihonjin no ishiki kōzō [Thinking patterns of modern Japanese people], 8th ed. Tokyo: NHK. Pekkanen, Robert, Steven  R.  Reed, Ethan Scheiner, and Daniel  M.  Smith, eds. 2018. Japan Decides 2017. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Reed, Steven R. 2003. “Realignment between the 1996 and 2000 Elections.” In Japanese Electoral Politics: Creating a New Party System, edited by Steven R. Reed, 40–61. London: RoutledgeCurzon. Reed, Steven R. 2011. “Winning Elections in Japan’s New Electoral Environment.” In Japanese Politics Today: From Karaoke to Kabuki Democracy, edited by Takashi Inoguchi and Purnendra Jain, 71–87. New York: Palgrave. Roemer, Michael. 2009. “Religious Affiliation in Contemporary Japan: Untangling the Enigma.” Review of Religious Research 50: 298–320. Rots, Aike, and Mark Teeuwen. 2017. “Introduction: Formations of the Secular in Japan.” Japan Review 30: 3–20. Shimada, Hiromi, and Jun’ya Yano. 2010. Sōka Gakkai: mō hitotsu no Nippon [Sōka Gakkai: Another Japan]. Tokyo: Kōdansha. Shinoda, Tomohito. 2013. Contemporary Japanese Politics: Institutional Changes and Power Shifts. New York: Columbia University Press. Shirakawa, Katsuhiko. 2000. Jijikō o hihan suru [A critique of the LDP-Liberal-Kōmeitō coalition]. Tokyo: Kadensha. Smith, Daniel  M. 2014. “Party Ideals and Practical Constraints in Kōmeitō Candidate Nominations.” In Kōmeitō: Politics and Religion in Japan, edited by George Ehrhardt, Axel Klein, Levi McLaughlin, and Steven  R.  Reed, 139–162. Berkeley, CA: Institute of East Asian Studies. Sōka Gakkai Nenpyō Hensan Iinkai, ed. 1976. Sōka Gakkai nenpyō [Chronicle of Sōka Gakkai]. Tokyo: Seikyō Shinbunsha.

222   Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin Stone, Jacqueline I. 2003. “By Imperial Edict and Shogunal Decree: Politics and the Issue of the Ordination Platform in Modern Lay Nichiren Buddhism.” In Buddhism in the Modern World: Adaptations of an Ancient Tradition, edited by Steven Heine and Charles S. Prebish, 193–219. New York: Oxford University Press. Suzuki, Hiroshi. 1970. Toshiteki sekai [The urban world]. Tokyo: Seishin Shobō. Takahashi, Atsushi. 2018. Sōka Gakkai hisshi [Sōka Gakkai’s secret history]. Tokyo: Kōdansha. Tamano, Kazushi. 2008. Sōka gakkai no kenkyū [Research on Sōka Gakkai]. Tokyo: Kōdansha. Thomas, Jolyon. 2018. Faking Liberties: Religious Freedom in American-Occupied Japan. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Toda, Jōsei. 1956. Kantōgenshū [Collection of prefatory notes]. Tokyo: Sōka Gakkai. Tōkyō Daigaku Hokkekyō Kenkyūkai [Tokyo University Lotus Sūtra Research Association], ed. 1962. Nichiren Shōshū Sōka Gakkai. Tokyo: Sanbōkyoku Busshōrin. Tsukada, Hotaka. 2015. Shūkyō to seiji no tentetsuten [The switchpoint of religion and politics]. Tokyo: Kadensha. Ushio, Henshūbu, ed. 2011. Higashi Nihon daishinsai: Sōka Gakkai ha dō ugoita ka? [The Great East Japan Disaster: How did Sōka Gakkai mobilize?] Tokyo: Ushio. White, James. 1970. The Sōkagakkai and Mass Society. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Yuki, Hideo. 1997. “Problems with the Revisions to the Religions Corporations Act.” Japanese Religions 38, no. 1–2: 25–36.

Chapter 12

The Politica l Opposition i n Ja pa n Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies

In a parliamentary system, “the government”—the executive—is created by and responsible to the parliament. The government could be formed by one party or by a coalition of parties, but in either case, all parties not represented in the cabinet are referred to collectively as “the opposition.” The role of the opposition is to keep the government honest, possibly to extract legislative concessions when the government seeks extra votes, and, at least for some opposition parties, to plot a path that will propel them into government at the expense of some or all of the incumbent governing parties. Thus, in a healthy parliamentary democracy, oppositions oppose, interrogate, bargain, and make the case to voters that they should replace the incumbent government at the next general election (Mochizuki 1982, 24–25). If the government is a coalition or held by a fragile party, the opposition may also seek to sow discord that causes a governmental collapse, in the hopes of stepping into power even without benefit of an election. Over time, then, parties might alternate between government and opposition, as electoral fortunes change, and as parliamentary coalitions shift. “The opposition” describes a party or set of parties at a point in time. Indeed, just as observers sometimes refer to “the government of the day,” so might they also refer to “the opposition of the day.” But what if a single party (or stable coalition) wins election after election, remains in power for decades, and seems unlikely ever to lose its grip? In such a dominant party system, “the opposition” comes to embody not a credible alternative government, but rather the permanent losers in parliament. Opposition parties have little near-­term hope of affecting policy very much, let alone of taking over the government. The country might still hold free and fair elections and protect a full slate of political and civil liberties, but political accountability might be compromised in the de facto absence of any electoral jeopardy for the party in power (Mochizuki 1982, 28).

224   Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies Between 1955 and 1989, Japan was just such a “democracy without competition” (Scheiner 2006). The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) maintained majorities in both houses of the National Diet and (with one minor exception) formed every government alone. And “the opposition” simply became a synonym for “all parties other than the LDP.” But in 1989 the LDP lost its upper house majority, and in 1993, the party split and lost the lower house, too. It fell out of power, displaced by a seven-­party coalition of nearly everyone else.1 After just ten months, however, the LDP returned to government for the next fifteen years, albeit almost always in coalitions.2 Then, in 2009, it crashed back out of power as the result of a landslide victory by a new majority party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Finally, after three years of mostly unsuccessful DPJ rule, the LDP returned yet again in December 2012, and it has remained in power ever since, while the opposition now looks as fragmented and possibly hopeless as it did before 1989. Thus, for all but four of the sixty-­four years between 1955 and 2019, the LDP has governed Japan. The question of how one party has stayed on top for so long in a democracy has dominated the literature on postwar Japanese politics (Thayer  1969; Baerwald  1986; Hrebenar  1992; Sato and Matsuzaki  1986; Curtis  1988; Krauss and Pekkanen 2011), but in this chapter, we consider the other side of the same coin: the failure of the opposition to put up much of a fight for most of that time. Since the establishment of the LDP in 1955, we see three distinct periods. The first, opposition as protest, lasted until 1989, and contained several sub-­periods during which the opposition splintered and diversified its tactics. As we argue in detail below, Japan’s clientelistic elections and centralized institutions created massive disadvantages for parties out of power, thus preventing the opposition from truly challenging the LDP. The second period, opposition as alternative government, stretched from 1989 through 2012, nearly a quarter century, and included those four years of non-­LDP governments. Although the anti-­LDP forces began to consolidate, the structural disadvantages for the opposition continued during the initial years of this period. However, significant changes over time altered these conditions and helped the opposition win the 2009 lower house election and gain control of the government. The third period, which began with the LDP’s return to power in December 2012, is ongoing, and at the time of writing might best be called opposition as irrelevance. The causes of opposition irrelevance in this period are very different from those that produced fifty-­ four years of nearly uninterrupted opposition failure prior to 2009. Irrespective of the causes, theory and experience alike teach us the importance of genuine party competition and the potential for alternation in power to promote democratic accountability. Thirty years ago, the feebleness of the opposition in Japan led Pempel (1990, 7) to remind us that “[a] democracy predicated on the ability to ‘throw the rascals out’ is far less convincing when it exists only in the abstract than when it is backed up by periodic examples of rascals actually flying through the doors.” A generation of more meaningful party competition commenced soon after he wrote that, but since 2012, Pempel’s reminder seems once again to be apposite.

The Political Opposition in Japan   225

Period 1: Opposition as Protest (1955–1989) The first postwar decade in Japan, most of it under the auspices of the Allied Occupation (1945–1952), saw multiple parties contest elections and a kaleidoscope of governing coalitions (Kohno 1997; Christensen 2000, 131–136). Helped in part by purges of leading conservative politicians by the postwar Occupation authorities, one government in 1947–1948 even featured a Socialist Party prime minister. However, the norm in these years was dominance by conservative parties, which a divided left had limited capacity to challenge. The most significant realignment of the party system occurred in 1955. After years of acrimony, the Right and Left Socialist Parties merged to form the Japan Socialist Party (JSP), and a month later the conservative forces united to form the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The JSP represented labor, especially the public sector union Sōhyō, and explicitly campaigned on class lines, fighting for the working class against big business. In contrast, the LDP’s support base was agriculture and small and big business. At birth, the LDP was roughly twice the size of the JSP, and essentially unrestrained in its exercise of legislative and executive power. Scholars of this period, often referred to as the 1955 System, demarcate several sub-­ periods, each of which featured a variation on the theme of LDP dominance. Different observers offer different periodicities,3 but most agree that the first several years were characterized by “intense” (Krauss 1984) and “unrelenting” (Mochizuki 1982) bipolar conflict and “deep ideological polarization” (Curtis 1988, 17) between the LDP and the Marxist opposition (see also Baerwald  1974). “Snap votes” on controversial matters became quite normal in the Diet, as LDP governments would summarily end debate and use the party’s large majority to legislate over the fruitless objections of the JSP and the tiny Japanese Communist Party (JCP). Aware of their impotence in the Diet, the JSP and JCP denounced LDP heavy-­handedness as “tyranny of the majority,” and framed their objections as existential struggles for democracy. They frequently resorted to hopeless motions of “no confidence,” as well as sit-­ins, boycotts, and delaying maneuvers such as “cow-­walking” to slow down legislative votes (Pempel  1975; Krauss  1984). Precisely because they knew that they could not stop a determined LDP government, the opposition parties’ favored course was to draw media attention and hope to win the battle for public opinion. The opposition-­as-­protest phase peaked in its intensity in 1960, when the LDP used a snap vote in the middle of the night to ratify the renewal of the US-­Japan Security Treaty in the face of vehement opposition throughout the country (Scalapino and Masumi 1962, 136; Mochizuki  1982, 404–405). Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi resigned to take responsibility for the unrest, and his successor, Hayato Ikeda, indicated an accommodative shift in tone (and in LDP priorities) away from controversial issues of

226   Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies f­oreign and security policy in favor of a focus on rapid economic growth, hallmarked by his famous “income-­doubling plan” (Mochizuki 1982, 39). The Security Treaty Crisis also marked a second stage of opposition party development, characterized by a progressive weakening of the JSP’s exclusive claim to be “the opposition.” Partly this change was due to gains by the JCP, but even more important was the establishment of two new centrist parties. First, JSP moderates representing private-­sector unions and those who favored the treaty renewal split off from the JSP to form the Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) in late 1959 (Curtis 1988); the 1960 general election was the DSP’s first. With no base outside of cities that maintained a significant private-­sector union presence, the DSP never exceeded single digits in terms of vote or seat percentages won in lower house elections. Nonetheless, by amputating the JSP’s more moderate wing, the DSP’s emergence weakened and radicalized the JSP, pushing it further to the left and away from the voters who might be looking for a credible governing alternative to the LDP (Stockwin 1975). Second, in 1964, the lay Buddhist organization Sōka Gakkai entered the electoral arena under the banner of its political party, Kōmeitō. The party began contesting elections in the House of Representatives (HR) in 1967. Beginning in 1969, Kōmeitō regularly garnered roughly 10 percent of all votes and seats, appealing primarily to the lower-­middle-­income urban residents who made up the bulk of Sōka Gakkai adherents. Kōmeitō sold itself as an ideologically centrist party, rejecting both the Marxist ideologies of the JSP and JCP, and the corruption and elitism of the LDP (Stockwin  1975; Baerwald  1986; Curtis  1988; Hrebenar 1992). Thus, much of the growth and diversification of Japan’s opposition emerged in cities, where citizens were less tied to the LDP’s clientelistic networks and where, especially in the late 1960s and early 1970s, progressive mayors and governors initiated social welfare and anti-­pollution policies to combat demographic change. The DSP and Kōmeitō focused on issues related to city residents and cut into the urban success of both the JSP and LDP (Scheiner 1999). Similarly, the Communists gained greater traction with their appeals to the urban working class. Stuck in the low single digits in electoral success over the initial elections under the 1955 System, starting in 1972 the JCP typically won roughly 10 percent of the vote and 5–7 percent of the HR seats.4 By the close of the 1960s, then, Japan’s “one-­and-­a-­half party system” (Scalapino and Masumi 1962) had evolved into a multiparty system, with the LDP’s somewhat smaller legislative majority now challenged by an array of ideologically distinct opponents. The JSP remained by far the largest opposition party, but any aspirations to power faded with each successive election. Its numerical strength peaked in 1958 at 36 percent of lower house seats; by 1969, it held only 19 percent. And so, rather than a description of any credible sort of competition for Japan’s ruling party, any strong possibility of alternation in power, or any consistent capacity to affect policy, “the opposition” became merely a shortcut reference to the fragmented grab-­bag of non-­LDP parties. Krauss (1984) characterizes government-­opposition relations in the 1960s and 1970s as a period of “accommodation,” with new norms of opposition participation and influence through Diet committees (see also Baerwald 1986, 123ff). The JSP and JCP

The Political Opposition in Japan   227 continued to use extra-­parliamentary protests to garner attention, but these increasingly became “theatrical” (Mochizuki 1982, 413) ritualistic performances—“like stage plays” (Krauss 1984, 252). Seeking to lay the foundation for future coalition governments that might include them, the DSP and Kōmeitō eschewed these tactics and instead began to work with the government on legislation (Christensen 2000, 126–127). Overall, opposition support of government bills actually increased during this period.5 The end of the 1970s was characterized by near parity between the LDP and the combined opposition (see also Baerwald  1986; Curtis  1988; Hrebenar  1992). Among other reasons, a steady drumbeat of corruption scandals within the ruling party appeared increasingly to turn voters off. In the summer of 1976, a group of ruling party members defected from the LDP to form the New Liberal Club (NLC) (Pharr 1982). The NLC, pledging to create cleaner politics, earned only 4.2 percent of the vote and 3.3 percent of the seats in the December 1976 election, but nonetheless contributed to the LDP’s failure to win a majority of HR seats in 1976 for the first time since its founding. As was common throughout the period, a handful of conservative independents joined the LDP immediately after the election in 1976, thus restoring the party’s majority,6 but after more than twenty years of opposition hopelessness, the prospect that the LDP could be toppled now seemed less remote. Temporarily at least, the LDP was able to weather this storm. After the 1983 election, it invited the NLC to join a formal coalition, as a precursor to reabsorbing it a few years later. Riding the coattails of its popular prime minister, Yasuhiro Nakasone, as well as the beginning of the expansion of stock and land-­price bubbles that briefly propelled Japan’s per capita income to the top of the world rankings, the LDP won its greatest electoral victory for a quarter-­century in the 1986 general election. As Curtis (1988, 35–37) argues, however, many things had in fact changed. First, the opposition was now ideologically and numerically fragmented and “demoralized.” Second, Japanese parties were considerably less polarized. Not only had the opposition parties spread themselves out over a much more heterogeneous set of policy positions, but the LDP too had broadened its support base to include a “diverse social coalition.”

Why Opposition Failure during the Opposition as Protest Period? The longtime success of the LDP and the inability of Japan’s opposition to perform the typical role of “opposition as alternative government” were the hallmarks of Japanese party politics in the 1955 System, and weakened democratic accountability in Japan. But what produced this unusual arrangement? Prior to the 1990s, much of the analysis of the opposition failure focused on explaining reasons for LDP popularity. Most prominently, observers correctly highlighted how decades of economic success helped maintain support for the party (e.g., Pempel 1998). Others emphasized Japanese culture, arguing, for example, that a conservative,

228   Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies c­ hange-­resistant culture helped maintain voters’ ties to the LDP (e.g., Hrebenar 1992). From a different perspective, some scholars argued that the LDP was able to enact policies flexibly, thus responding in a skillful manner to changing public preferences (e.g., Calder 1988; Pempel 1990; Thies 1998). Many (e.g., Curtis 1988; Otake 1990) argued that the LDP benefitted from its opponents’ fecklessness, pointing especially to the JSP’s internal ideological purity tests that produced inflexible left-­wing policy appeals and turned off millions of Japanese voters. However, all of these arguments can only go so far in explaining LDP success and opposition failure, given that after 1963 the LDP never managed to win a majority of the lower house vote. That is, the LDP was losing support despite the “economic miracle,” but it nonetheless managed to sustain perennial legislative majorities. How? To answer this question, scholars implicate Japan’s electoral system, in two ways. The first was increasing pro-­rural malapportionment. Early in the postwar period, Japan allocated seats proportionally to districts according to their population. Over time, millions of Japanese moved from rural to urban areas, but little reapportionment accompanied such moves. As a result, urban areas held many fewer seats than their growing populations merited, and rural districts were grossly overrepresented. The LDP, with its base in Japan’s countryside, could win many rural seats with a relatively small number of votes. But malapportionment isn’t the whole story. There is no question that it benefited the LDP and hurt the centrist parties and the JCP,7 but the effect was pivotal for LDP legislative majorities in only a very small number of elections (Christensen and Johnson 1995; Baker and Scheiner 2007). Second, many scholars highlight the strategic challenges that the single non-­ transferable vote (SNTV) electoral system created, especially for opposition parties. Under SNTV, most Japanese electoral districts elected three to five members, so to win a legislative majority, a party needed to win an average of roughly two seats per district. Each voter could cast only a single vote for an individual candidate, so majority-­seeking parties faced a strategic imperative: run multiple candidates per district and find a way to induce a division of the vote even enough to elect as many of these rival candidates as possible. Some scholars argue that while the centrifugal forces of intraparty competition caused the opposition to fragment, power (and especially access to resources) was the glue that held the LDP together (Reed and Scheiner 2003). All LDP candidates toed the party line, and then used pork, patronage, and countless gifts and favors to differentiate themselves from one another. This allowed the party to run multiple candidates without confusing voters about what the party stood for (Hrebenar  1992; McCubbins and Rosenbluth 1995; Cox and Thies 1998). Scheiner (2005,  2006) emphasizes the failure of the opposition at the subnational level as central to the story of the parties’ failure in national-­level races. Whereas non-­ LDP parties tended to control 40–45 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives under the 1955 System, their success in prefectural assembly races tended to hover around 30 percent. Scheiner attributes this to the combination of clientelistic policies and institutional centralization. First, he argues that clientelism is even more important in local elections than in national elections.8 Second, in Japan’s highly centralized

The Political Opposition in Japan   229 c­onstitutional structure, the party that controls the national budget, the source of ­pork-­barrel spending, can enjoy a virtuous central-­local feedback loop, as local politicians face strong incentives to affiliate with the national-­level ruling party. This pro-­LDP bias of the centralized, clientelistic system is particularly strong in rural areas that rely more heavily on the central government for support. The effect of this opposition weakness at the local level weakens the opposition’s challenge to the LDP at the national level, Scheiner argues. Subnational politicians tended to be the most effective campaigners for national-­level candidates and to form a pool of well-­qualified candidates for national office (Horiuchi, Saito, and Yamada  2015). With a weaker bench of subnational politicians, therefore, the opposition faced great disadvantage in national elections.

Period 2: Opposition as Alternative Government (1989–2012) The changes of the late 1980s created the underpinnings for a transformation of the party system in Japan. Splits within the LDP led briefly to a multiparty, anti-­LDP government. The anti-­LDP coalition proved unable to stay together, but it established a pattern of coalition governments that has continued to the present. The anti-­LDP government’s one major legislative achievement, electoral reform, promoted a more consolidated opposition force, but initially did not undercut the structural disadvantages faced by the opposition. However, over time, even these underlying conditions weakened, ultimately producing genuine party alternation in power,

The Opposition Consolidates, but the LDP Keeps Winning (1990–2003) After the LDP’s dominating win in the 1986 general election, and Nakasone’s decision to step down a year later, a more serious series of threats to the party’s rule emerged. A vast insider trading scandal and the ruling party’s decision to introduce a consumption tax took down Nakasone’s successor as prime minister, and a sex scandal quickly toppled the next one. This put the LDP on shaky ground going into the 1989 House of Councillors (HC, the upper house) race (Christensen  2000, 111–117), and the JSP pulled off an unprecedented upset, undoing the LDP’s majority control of the upper house for the first time since 1955–1956. The LDP remained alone in government, but moving forward it would have to work with other parties to pass legislation. The LDP won the February 1990 general election, but with a much-­reduced majority. That year also saw the bursting of Japan’s stock- and land-­price bubbles, a crash that initiated two-­plus decades of stagnation, recession, and deflation. To add insult to injury, in 1992 another spectacular bribery scandal dominated the headlines. Public

230   Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies outrage grew over LDP corruption (Reed and Thies 2001). In June 1993, several dozen members of the ruling party, led by Ichirō Ozawa, supported a vote of no confidence against the LDP government and defected to form new party alternatives. The House of Representatives (the lower house) was dissolved and new elections were held in July. The first period of LDP dominance officially ended with the results of the 1993 general election. The rump of the LDP finished first, but well short of a legislative majority, and the parties formed by the LDP defectors pieced together a coalition with every other party save the JCP to push the LDP out of power. Suddenly, the long-­suffering opposition was in power and the natural party of government, the LDP, was now the opposition.9 The LDP did not stay in opposition for long, however. The unwieldy new coalition splintered in April 1994, and collapsed altogether in June. In a surprising development, the LDP co-­opted its traditional enemy, the JSP, to form a new government. But this was not a simple return to LDP dominance. Two important changes had occurred that would define the next two decades. First, there had been actual partisan turnover in government, however fleeting, and this demonstrated that turnover was achievable and something the LDP’s opponents could aspire to repeat. Second, since 1993 every Japanese government but one has featured a coalition of at least two parties, a clear departure from thirty-­eight years of single-­party governments. The advent of coalition governments opened the possibility of more fluid transit between government and opposition, as big parties might see fit to swap some partners for others, to suit changing circumstances or changing electoral calculations. As mentioned above, the short-­ lived coalition that followed the 1993 election produced one singular achievement: a major restructuring of the electoral system for the House of Representatives. The existing SNTV electoral system engendered personalistic and money-­oriented politics, and many observers and politicians held SNTV responsible for much of the corruption in Japanese politics (see, e.g., Ramseyer and Rosenbluth  1993; Reed and Thies  2001). For many years before he led the 1993 rebellion that temporarily toppled the LDP, Ichirō Ozawa had called for a switch to single-­member districts and a first-­past-­the-­post electoral system, in order to eliminate intraparty competition and promote the establishment of a unified opposition party that could aspire to alternate in government with the LDP (Ozawa  1994; Reed and Scheiner 2003; George Mulgan 2015). The anti-­LDP coalition government replaced the SNTV rules with a mixed-­member majoritarian (MMM) system combining (initially) three hundred single-­ member districts to be contested by first-­past-­the-­post rules and two hundred seats elected across eleven regions via proportional representation. The addition of the proportional representation (PR) tier represented a compromise to gain support for the reform by smaller parties that could not realistically hope to win single-­member districts (SMDs) (Christensen 1994; Reed and Thies 2001). The expected big-­party rival appeared very soon after the passage of the reform. In December 1994, Ozawa founded the New Frontier Party (NFP), merging most of the small parties that appeared in 1993 with the long-­standing centrist parties Kōmeitō and the DSP. The NFP’s first electoral test was an upper house half-­election in summer 1995,

The Political Opposition in Japan   231 and it won forty seats to the LDP’s forty-­nine, actually amassing 1.5 million more votes than the LDP. In the first lower house election held under the new MMM rules, the NFP again showed well. It won 28 percent of the votes in both the SMD and PR tiers ­(compared with 39 and 33 percent, respectively, for the LDP), although its seat take (156 seats to the LDP’s 239) suffered from an eleventh-­hour split. That split produced the Democratic Party of Japan, led by defectors from the NFP and the JSP (now called the Social Democratic Party—SDP) (Scheiner 2006; Weiner 2011). The DPJ won 11 percent of the SMD vote and seventeen seats, and 16 percent of the PR vote, good for thirty-­five seats. Together, then, the opposition (NFP + DPJ + JCP) trounced the LDP in terms of votes (53 to 42 percent in SMDs, 60 to 40 percent in PR) but the LDP and its shadow coalition partners secured a majority of seats nonetheless. Due in part to policy disagreements among its component parties-­ cum-­ factions (especially, the poor fit of those who joined from Kōmeitō) and in part to dissent against the leadership of Ozawa, the NFP disbanded in late 1997, with its members scattering in several different directions (Curtis 2000,192–193). A small but important group joined the DPJ, thus cementing that party’s status as the clear leader of the opposition. The NFP’s former Kōmeitō members reemerged en bloc as the “New Kōmeitō.” Ozawa himself created the small Liberal Party. Finally, some NFP refugees rejoined the LDP. In January 1999, Ozawa brought his Liberal Party into coalition with the LDP, which had meanwhile crept back over the majority threshold. The two were soon joined by Kōmeitō, specifically to retake control of the upper house (Druckman and Thies 2002). The Liberals split in 2000 over disagreements between Ozawa and the LDP, with Ozawa’s group rejoining the opposition and the rest eventually absorbed by the LDP. Just prior to the 2003 general election, Ozawa merged his Liberal Party with the DPJ, and began plotting the DPJ’s takeover of government in earnest (George Mulgan 2015). The DPJ did quite well in the 2003 election, improving its lower house standing by forty seats, while the LDP, now led by Junichirō Koizumi, lost ten. The DPJ bested the LDP by three seats in the PR tier, but fell sixty-­three seats short of the LDP in the SMD tier. The latter failure was due in part to the spoiler role played by the JCP, and in part to the enhanced electoral cooperation between the LDP and Kōmeitō in fielding joint candidates in SMDs and producing many more urban-­seat victories than the LDP could have mustered on its own (Liff and Maeda 2019). As expected, the change in the electoral system had helped to promote an opposition force that was more consolidated around a single party, but many of the same structural factors that harmed the opposition prior to electoral reform persisted. The electoral reform had not eliminated clientelism, especially in local politics, and had done nothing to alter Japan’s highly centralized institutional structure, and so the LDP continued to dominate subnational elections by nearly the same margins as prior to reform. With a paucity of local politicians to campaign on its behalf and run for office in national elections, the DPJ found itself unable to win many SMDs. Controlling for political experience, LDP candidates were no more likely to win lower house district races than DPJ candidates in 2000 and 2003. But, thanks to its large pool of subnational office holders, the LDP had many more experienced candidates, and candidates with

232   Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies experience of that sort were much more likely to win, whichever party they represented (Scheiner 2006; Reed, Scheiner, and Thies 2012). By the 2003 lower house race, the third under the new electoral system, the DPJ’s 37 percent of the seats made it the most successful opposition party ever (Scheiner 2006). Nevertheless, the LDP won those first three elections under the new rules convincingly.

Opposition en route to Government (2004–2010) In the next general election, in September 2005, Prime Minister Koizumi led the LDP to its largest landslide victory to date. Together with Kōmeitō, it won a two-­thirds majority for the first time. It was easy to believe that the election augured a new era of even greater dominance by the LDP. But Koizumi’s core strategy, in conjunction with structural changes in Japan, would help produce the first true voter-­induced victory for the opposition. Koizumi had long called for the LDP to remake its support base, in particular by appealing to urban voters. He pushed for a wide-­ranging liberalization of the economy, even if it were to alienate many of the party’s most loyal supporters in heavily protected sectors of the economy. Lost in the headlines of the LDP’s 2005 election landslide win was evidence that something very fundamental had changed. At its root, the 1994 electoral reform was intended by its strongest advocates to move Japan toward a Westminsterian form of government (Ozawa 1994; George Mulgan 2015), That is, many hoped it would induce a competition that regularized alternation in government between two large, programmatic parties with opposing visions for government. Accordingly, elections could center on party manifestos and public goods rather than personal appeals and clientelist handouts. As already discussed, the impetus to establish a big-­party alternative to the LDP commenced straightaway, and although the NFP foundered after three years, the DPJ replaced it and became a viable competitor. But the downstream effects on campaigns and pork-­barrel politics were more gradual, clientelism began to decline in the late 1990s (Noble 2010; Rosenbluth and Thies 2010), and party politics shifted from the district-­by-­district focus under SNTV to a more nationalized competition under the new rules (Reed, Scheiner, and Thies 2012). With the elimination of intraparty competition, parties began in the 2000s to produce election manifestos to advertise their party policy platforms. But the 2005 contest was the first in which individual HR candidates’ likelihood of victory depended more on their partisan affiliation (Reed, Scheiner, and Thies 2012) than their personal qualities or experience (Scheiner 2006). Koizumi’s central strategies helped weaken the importance of individual candidacies. The 2005 snap election was a direct response to defiance within the LDP to Koizumi’s anti-­clientelistic policy reforms. When faced with intraparty obstruction of his reform efforts, Koizumi expelled the rebels, dissolved the Diet, and framed the ensuing election campaign as a referendum on himself and his reform plans. Although the DPJ opposed Koizumi’s reform plans because they did not go far enough, Koizumi was able lump it together with the expelled rebels as “anti-­reform” and steamroll it at the polls.

The Political Opposition in Japan   233 The DPJ’s 2005 setback was only temporary. Koizumi retired at the height of his popularity in 2006, and his successor, Shinzō Abe, put economic reform on the back burner in favor of nationalist appeals for patriotism, constitutional revision, and a more vigorous foreign policy. The unpopularity of these moves, along with a scandal involving millions of lost pension records, gave the DPJ an opening, In July 2007, the DPJ won the upper house half-­election outright and (with its small-­party allies) took majority control over that chamber. This was momentous—it produced the first post-­1955 case of a “Twisted Diet” in which the two houses of the bicameral parliament were controlled by opposing political coalitions. The DPJ’s success in 2007 can be traced to the ways that Koizumi had repositioned the LDP for the 2005 general election. Koizumi’s liberalizing reforms explicitly sought to undercut the government’s (and, by extension, the LDP’s) clientelistic practices, something that raised the hackles of many in the countryside. Opportunistically, the DPJ made overtures to rural Japan, offering welfare-­state-­type policies10 designed to help farmers and small businesses who felt abandoned by the LDP. With these moves, the electoral foundations of the parties shifted. While winning its largest majority ever, the LDP actually lost seats in rural districts. At the same time, although the DPJ had a poor election overall, it enjoyed roughly equal levels of support across all types of districts (Reed, Scheiner, and Thies 2012). The growing competition between the two parties proved to be important for democratic accountability. To some degree, the LDP and DPJ tried to have their cake and eat it too, by simultaneously promoting both urban and rural interests. However, both parties also paid significant attention to economic liberalization, explicitly discussing it and the balance of urban and rural interests in campaigns. In short, greater party competition appeared to inject a level of serious economic discussion that had been lacking in the period of “Opposition as Protest.” With these shifts in the foundations of Japanese party politics, the DPJ continued to rise. Abe resigned to take responsibility for the 2007 HC electoral loss, and the DPJ, led now by Ozawa, used its upper house perch to bedevil the administrations of his successors, Yasuo Fukuda and then Tarō Asō. The DPJ-­controlled HC censured LDP cabinet ministers as well as Fukuda himself, and rejected appointments to the central bank and the continuation of Japan’s refueling mission in support of NATO efforts in Afghanistan. Ozawa publicly demanded that the government resign and call a general election. Of course, because the DPJ-­controlled upper house was not subject to early dissolution, voters in a general election could “untwist” the Diet only by delivering a lower house victory to the DPJ. By 2007 the structures underlying Japanese politics looked markedly different from those of the pre-­1989 period. With the decline in clientelism and in the significance of individual candidacies, as well as the rise of more nationalized elections, the DPJ was in a position to win a general election and take control of the government. Finally, having held out for as long as constitutionally allowed, LDP Prime Minister Asō called an election for September 2009, and sure enough, the DPJ won its historic landslide victory. It won nearly 90 percent of all urban and semi-­urban district seats, but, perhaps most

234   Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies startlingly, the party also won a plurality of rural seats and 308 seats overall, as compared to only 119 for the LDP. For the second time since 1993, but now with a single-­party anti-­ LDP majority rather than an unwieldy seven-­party coalition, the opposition became the government. Briefly, Japan politics resembled the canonical Westminster model (Lijphart  1999; Powell 2000), whereby two large parties alternate in power. However, bipartism would not last long, and the ascendance of the opposition would prove to be fleeting.

Opposition as Obstruction (2010–2012) For nine months, the DPJ controlled both houses of the Diet, but infighting between Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and de facto party leader Ozawa soon spoiled the broth. A series of minor scandals and policy flubs, particularly regarding promises made to rural voters to convince them to give the DPJ a chance, opened the door for an LDP comeback. This was manifested in the LDP’s recapturing the upper house in July 2010. Now the Diet was twisted in the other direction, with a DPJ-­dominated lower house and government, and an LDP-­led upper house. The LDP relentlessly followed the DPJ’s 2007–2009 obstructionist example. As Endo, Pekkanen, and Reed (2013, 57) note, the LDP “scrupulously did not miss a single good opportunity to initiate a censure motion against any minister with a whiff of incompetence or corruption” (see also Carlson 2013). Sometimes, the LDP used this upper house leverage to force the DPJ to amend its proposed legislation, making the novice DPJ government appear weak. The LDP was also more than willing to obstruct outright. Among many infamous examples (see Thies and Yanai 2013), the LDP even refused to countenance emergency relief spending for victims of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown until DPJ Prime Minister Naoto Kan promised to resign. Yoshihiko Noda replaced Kan as prime minister in September 2011, but the DPJ’s problems only increased (Kushida and Lipscy 2013). As Noda set in motion a plan to raise the consumption tax, eight DPJ members (with two more joining them later) left the party in November 2011 in protest. By February 2012, the DPJ’s intraparty battles grew even more heated. Ozawa attacked the party’s leaders, notably opposing the consumption tax increase. Facing opposition from within his own party, in June 2012 Noda worked with the LDP and Kōmeitō to pass the tax hike in exchange for a promise to hold a new lower house election soon. After the consumption tax increase passed, Ozawa and forty-­nine of his Diet followers left the DPJ to create a new party (Kushida and Lipscy 2013; Pekkanen and Reed 2013). In the following months, other Diet members followed suit. In November Noda paid the price demanded by the LDP, and called a general election for December 16, 2012. The DPJ had won 308 lower house seats in 2009, but thanks primarily to defections from the party, only 230 DPJ incumbents remained heading into the 2012 race (Nyblade 2013).

The Political Opposition in Japan   235 The DPJ faced an array of new opponents in the election—not only the LDP, Kōmeitō, and the Communists, but also a group of “Third Force” parties that sought to challenge both the LDP and DPJ. Ozawa’s group formed the core of one such party (the Tomorrow Party of Japan). A second, the Japan Restoration Party (JRP), founded in the Osaka area, sought to become a national force. A third party (Your Party) had been quite small in 2009 but had then gained strength (Reed 2013; Reed et al. 2013). The result was a fragmented assortment of alternatives to the LDP, signaling an end to the brief period of two-­party competition in Japan. The LDP won the election with more than 60 percent of all seats. Combined with the seat total of its coalition partner Kōmeitō, the new government held a two-­thirds majority in the lower house. The DPJ, meanwhile, crashed hard, winning only fifty-­seven seats. However, the election was far closer than the final seat totals suggested. Indeed, the anti-­LDP forces may have squandered an opportunity to keep the LDP out of power. Although the LDP won a stunning number of seats, it took just 28 percent of the proportional representation vote, and its partner Kōmeitō won under 12 percent. The LDP won 79 percent of the single-­member district seats, but only 43 percent of the vote for its candidates. Together, the LDP and Kōmeitō took 246 out of the 300 SMDs in 2012 but won vote majorities in fewer than 100 of those. The familiar problem for the anti-­ LDP forces was that they divided a potentially winning sum of votes among too many candidates. This failure to coordinate around a single candidate in each district may very well have handed the LDP the election.11 In the event, the actual result was a total defeat for the DPJ. Voters had given it a chance to govern, and through a combination of blunders, factional infighting, and bad luck, it had failed. Due to the realities of the Twisted Diet, it had had to turn to the LDP for external support for its most important policy bills, which bolstered the LDP’s claim to be the natural party of government. With the LDP’s return to power, this period of two-­bloc politics and alternation in government closed. Shinzō Abe, who had been given a second chance to lead the LDP after his 2006 failure, immediately set his sights on winning the July 2013 upper house election, to restore unified bicameral control, an aspiration he duly realized.

Period 3: Opposition as Irrelevance (2012–)? After its 2012 humiliation, it briefly appeared that the opposition might be able to reignite the competitive party system, but Abe snuffed out the threat with clever tactics. In 2014 the opposition began to develop a strategy to contest the next lower house election as a unified force (Ikeda and Reed 2016; Pekkanen and Reed 2016). Without warning, Abe dissolved the lower house and called a snap election, giving the opposition no time to put a plan into place. The result was a bloodbath, as the LDP-­Kōmeitō

236   Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies coalition renewed its two-­thirds majority. The DPJ recovered a bit from 2012, gaining sixteen seats. Unlike 2012, in which they fought over 211 district seats, the DPJ and the Third Force parties competed with each other in only fifty-­six SMDs. In part as a result, the governing coalition’s SMD “seat bonus” from opposition coordination failure was only twenty-­one (Scheiner, Smith, and Thies 2016). Having learned that the opposition had not yet found a way to inspire Japanese voters and could not put together an election strategy on the fly, Abe reprised his snap election gambit to great effect in 2017. This time, the DPJ chose not to contest the election at all, urging its voters to support new opposition parties. Two new parties emerged, and unlike most previous party developments of recent decades, the new parties presented sharply distinct ideological stances. One, the Party of Hope, holds very conservative policy positions, including support for constitutional revision. The other, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), advocates a much more left-­wing position, hearkening back to the old JSP’s obsession with preserving the Article 9 “Peace Clause” of the constitution. Despite the arrival of these new parties, the results of the election changed little from 2014. Hope and the CDP mostly avoided competing directly with one another in the SMDs, but collectively took only 104 seats, whereas the governing coalition again secured a two-­thirds supermajority. As of 2019, the opposition appears to have squandered an opportunity to consolidate the more competitive party system that had emerged in the years after 1993. After a mere three years in government, battles among the anti-­LDP parties cost the group a 2012 election that they could have won. In the next two general elections (2014 and 2017), the main opposition parties avoided making as many coordination errors, but often because they failed to nominate any candidate at all. The results were three consecutive LDP landslides. The LDP’s share of the proportional representation vote (a reasonable proxy for its true popularity relative to other parties) rose from only 28 percent in 2012 to 33 percent in both 2014 and 2017. So while poor opposition tactics handed fewer “unearned” seats to the LDP in the latter two elections, the bigger problem was that opposition parties failed to persuade enough voters to give them a second chance to govern. Today’s “opposition,” a heterogeneous smattering of small and medium-­sized parties, resembles the latter years of the 1955 System much more than what Japan experienced between 1993 and 2012. The post-­2012 period of LDP-­Kōmeitō rule in the absence of any real electoral challenge highlights the important part played in democratic governance by a “true” opposition—i.e., one that competes with the ruling parties as an “opposition as alternative government.” Beginning in 2014, in numerous districts the LDP offered the only viable candidate, with “challengers” who were never seen as having any chance of winning. The continued disarray of the opposition left it unable to provide a genuine challenge to the LDP on policy grounds. The opposition never offered a real alternative to the LDP’s “Abenomics” approach to reinvigorate the Japanese economy, and made little effort at taking on the LDP for ignoring other major policy issues. What emerged were “no choice” elections (Pekkanen, Reed, and Smith  2016), in which the LDP campaigned on a narrow range of economic policy issues. Then, upon winning, Prime

The Political Opposition in Japan   237 Minister Abe claimed the results demonstrated a mandate for his entire policy agenda, even though most of it had not even been a significant part of the campaign.

Why (Renewed) Opposition Failure? Given the elimination of many of the LDP’s long-­held structural advantages, the failure of the opposition to mount a credible challenge after 2012 is somewhat puzzling. The nationalization of party politics and the decline in the significance of individual candidacies (Reed, Scheiner, and Thies 2012) imply that a lack of control of the central government should be much less of a disadvantage than in previous years. Moreover, there appeared to be ample opportunity for the opposition to make inroads with Japan’s voters. The LDP—and in particular its policies—are not especially popular with Japan’s voters (Pekkanen, Reed, and Scheiner 2016a, 2016b; Pekkanen and Reed 2018; Pekkanen, et al. 2018). In fact, Horiuchi, Smith, and Yamamoto (2018) provide compelling evidence that in the 2017 campaign, the LDP’s platform was the least popular among Japanese voters. Nevertheless, there were many reasons for the opposition’s failure during this time, most of which point to evaluations of competence. To begin with, it was under the DPJ’s watch that Japan was hit by one of the worst disasters in world history in March 2011. Despite the fact that many of the problems that emerged could be pinned on bureaucratic failings that longtime LDP rule had permitted, the DPJ took a significant share of the blame for the slow governmental response in the aftermath of the disaster and failings in the country’s recovery over the following year. In addition, the DPJ simply did not implement much of its manifesto while in office. The LDP helped to undermine DPJ governments by using the Twisted Diet to obstruct all important legislation, but many DPJ injuries were self-­inflicted. From a different perspective, the DPJ’s collapse was undoubtedly partly a result of the party’s internal ideological heterogeneity and the personal ambitions of Ichirō Ozawa. The party had always been a big tent of ideas, but these differing positions became much more difficult to satisfy once the party actually had to pass legislation and govern. The LDP has always contained multitudes as well, but, somehow, power has proved enough to hold it together, even after Koizumi’s painful reboot of the party brand. This last point highlights the significance of Ozawa’s destruction of the DPJ in 2012 (George Mulgan 2015). A longer stint in power might have allowed the party to become more institutionalized and find a way to maintain itself despite internal disagreements about policy, but Ozawa made that impossible when he chose to burn the house down on his way out the door. It is important to note that rapidly declining voter turnout has also played a significant role in the failure of the post-­2012 opposition. In 2009 turnout reached a high (69 percent) not achieved since 1990, as habitual abstainers sought to cast a ballot for something new. However, turnout dropped to 59 percent in 2012, as many of these less committed voters decided to return to the sidelines (Reed et al. 2013). This set a postwar record low for turnout, which was then eclipsed in 2014 (53 percent) and 2017 (54 percent).

238   Ethan Scheiner and Michael F. Thies The LDP and Kōmeitō rely upon a well-­organized and reliable group of voters, thus ­providing a boost to those parties when overall turnout is low. As 2009 illustrated, the anti-­LDP forces relied heavily upon an influx of new voters, and later years highlighted the difficulty they faced challenging the LDP when turnout remained low.12 Of course, this also provides grounds for optimism that the 1990–2009 promise of competitive partisan politics might be reprised. Nearly half the eligible electorate abstains, but 2009 showed that a great many of those potential voters are open to new, exciting appeals. Especially with the LDP’s platform so unpopular, the potential exists for a yet another big-­party alternative to appear.

Conclusion After briefly fulfilling its full potential, Japan’s “opposition” today seems to have returned to its pre-­1993 state of “parties other than the LDP.” Even more than during the 1955 System, the LDP dominates all areas of the country, including urban districts (Scheiner, Smith, and Thies 2016, 2018). The governing coalition’s urban support is much more fragile than in rural areas, so a return to a more competitive party system must start with an opposition upsurge in these areas of opportunity. However, due to the permanent over-­representation of rural Japan in the upper house, any successful opposition must find a way to make inroads in rural Japan as well, lest it only win government in the shadow of a Twisted Diet. It remains unclear what would need to happen for the opposition to gain such ground. A focus on mobilizing casual voters might be more successful than persuading habitual LDP voters. But at this time, no new general conceptual framework exists for understanding the post-­2012 failure of Japan’s opposition. Developing a clearer sense of the factors at work behind this continued failure will be important to understanding the functioning of Japan’s democracy moving forward.

Notes 1. The government was made up of every non-­LDP party except the Japanese Communist Party. Some observers count eight parties, but the eighth (RENGO) did not receive a cabinet position. 2. Between 1996 and 1998, there was one LDP minority government, led by Ryūtarō Hashimoto, but it enjoyed the explicit outside support of its erstwhile coalition partners, the JSP and the New Party Harbinger. 3. For example, Krauss (1984) sees four distinct stages between 1955 and 1980, whereas Curtis (1988) counts two. 4. That the JCP’s national vote share was so much higher than its seat share was a function of the party’s practice of running a candidate in every electoral district even when that can­ didate had no chance of winning a seat. This produced a lot of wasted votes in hopeless

The Political Opposition in Japan   239 districts. By contrast, the DSP and Kōmeitō were much more selective about where they nominated candidates. 5. The opposition parties intermittently sought new ways to strengthen their hand. DSP leaders tried unsuccessfully to attract high-­level LDP politicians to join them in the creation of a centrist coalition. The DSP, Kōmeitō, and the JSP even discussed a party merger, but could not pull that off either. Interestingly, parties—especially the DSP and Kōmeitō— found substantial success in coordinating at the district level. They often forged mutual stand-­down agreements whereby they would avoid competing with each other and splitting the anti-­LDP vote (Christensen 2000). 6. This scenario repeated itself in 1979 and 1983. In between, the 1980 election produced a large LDP victory that is usually attributed to a sympathy vote following the death of Prime Minister Masayoshi Ōhira during the campaign. 7. Much of the JSP’s core base of support was in the countryside as well. The typical rural three-­seat electoral district chose two LDP winners and one JSP winner. 8. In national politics, the principal policy cleavage between the LDP and JSP was foreign policy (see, e.g., Proksch, Slapin, and Thies 2011), thus drawing many voters to the Socialists for policy reasons. But with foreign policy playing little part in local politics (outside of Okinawa), clientelistic arrangements held even greater sway at the subnational level. 9. A decade earlier, Krauss had foreshadowed just this sort of lexical weirdness, writing of “the prospect of a future ‘all opposition’ coalition government” (Krauss 1984, 256, emphasis added). 10. That is, the DPJ offered a compensatory safety net, not a simple restoration of the regulatory protections and subsidies that Koizumi had withdrawn. 11. Scheiner, Smith, and Thies (2016) calculate that opposition coordination failure may have handed the LDP and Kōmeitō as many as 112 extra seats. If the non-­Communist opposition parties had been able to channel all their votes to a single joint candidate, they would have won a total of 250 seats (out of 500 total), compared to just 213 for the LDP/Kōmeitō team. Of course, it is unrealistic to imagine perfect coordination in every district, but it is clear that a cohesive anti-­LDP force might have contained the LDP’s resurgence and possibly prolonged the period of non-­LDP government. 12. Interestingly, the LDP actually won fewer votes in its 2012 triumph than it had in its 2009 humiliation (Reed et al. 2013).

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Pa rt I I I

P OL IC Y M A K I NG A N D T H E PU BL IC

chapter 13

The Policym a k i ng Process i n Ja pa n Tomohito Shinoda

Among Japan scholars, there has been an ongoing debate since the 1990s about whether or not Japanese politics was really changing. Scholars following traditional thought, which emphasized the political culture, saw changes in Japanese politics throughout the postwar period as not very significant, given the backdrop of the continuing reign of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) (Nakane  1972; Richardson and Flanagan  1984; Curtis  1988). On the other hand, with the introduction of single-member districts (SMDs) after the 1994 electoral reform, institutionalist scholars predicted that the political dynamics would change. In particular, it was believed that LDP factionalism and LDP politicians’ personal support groups (kōenkai), which were developed rationally for their re-election under the multi-member district system, would phase out (Ramseyer and Rosenbluth 1993; Kohno 1997). In the end, however, both LDP factionalism and kōenkai survived, though their influence was weakened. Whether these changes were viewed as more or less significant depends on the perspective of those experts involved in the discussion, like the debate over the glass being half full or half empty. Another prediction the institutionalists made relates to policymaking in the Japanese government. As the general elections became more party-centered, it was believed, there would be more centralized authority exercised by the leaders within the government party as well as the prime minister. Although the degree of the centralization of power depends on the individual prime minister, the Japanese policymaking process has undoubtedly changed. This chapter observes the transition of Japanese policymaking. First, it looks into the postwar institutional arrangements, and how political developments changed the power balance between the bureaucracy and the Diet, the government and the LDP, and within the LDP and the government. This traditional structure faced drastic changes due to the institutional changes that occurred in the 1990s, the 1994 electoral changes, and the administrative reform under the Ryūtarō Hashimoto government. These institutional

246   Tomohito Shinoda changes were taken full advantage of by Prime Minister Junichirō Koizumi, who introduced top-down decision-making. The government under the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) attempted to introduce more institutional changes to strengthen political leadership, but it could not effectively utilize them. Under his second term as prime minister, Shinzō Abe demonstrated the centralized policymaking process.

Institutional Arrangements and Bureaucratic Supremacy The current Japanese Constitution created institutional arrangements by which the Diet is defined as the highest institution of national authority. The prime minister must be a Diet member who is chosen by his or her peers in the Diet, and must select at least onehalf of the cabinet members from among Diet members. In running the government, the cabinet is collectively responsible to the Diet. The prime minister is the head of the cabinet, and has authority to appoint and dismiss cabinet members and protect them from legal actions during their tenure. But the prime minister’s role in policymaking is ambiguous in the constitution. According to Article 72, “[t]he Prime Minister, representing the cabinet, submits bills, reports on general national affairs and foreign relations to the Diet and exercises control and supervision over various administrative branches.” The original draft by the Occupation authorities intended that the prime minister would represent the cabinet only in submitting bills, and can control the ministries independently from the cabinet. However, Cabinet Legal Bureau officials insisted that the cabinet’s collective responsibility does not allow the prime minister to control the executive branch independently from the cabinet.1 These officials wrote the Cabinet Law of 1947 to further limit the prime minister’s policymaking power. Article 3 states that the executive power is divided among cabinet members, providing direct authority over administrative operations to the relevant minister. Therefore as Gotōda (1988) explains, the prime minister must instruct the ministries through the minister, except for the agencies under the Prime Minister’s Office. Article 6 also requires that the prime minister control and supervise the administrative offices only to the extent the cabinet decision authorized. In addition, Cabinet Legal Bureau officials interpreted the cabinet’s collective responsibility so narrowly that cabinet decisions had to be unanimously agreed to by the cabinet members. In the policymaking process, therefore, the prime minister needed to build a consensus among different groups within the ruling party to assure a cabinet approval. Although the Occupation authorities intended to introduce legislative supremacy when drafting the constitution, bureaucratic supremacy developed during and after the Occupation, as a classic study by Tsuji (1969) explained. The ministries were staffed by competent elite bureaucrats who were graduates of top universities. Throughout their

The Policymaking Process in Japan   247 careers, elite bureaucrats learned how to design, draft, and implement legislation in the jurisdiction of their ministries. Their major interest was to protect the ministry’s interest and expand its authority by empowering it through various laws. Although ministries were technically subordinate to the cabinet, bureaucrats were responsible only to their minister, as the Cabinet Law divided executive authority. This also strengthened sectionalism within the bureaucracy. Johnson (1982, 20–21) portrayed high-level bureaucrats as “the most prestigious in the society,” and described the bureaucratic supremacy in this way: “[T]he elite bu­reauc­ racy of Japan makes most major decisions, drafts virtually all legislation, controls national budgets, and is the source of all major policy innovation in the system.” Pempel and Tsunekawa (1979) emphasized the central role of the powerful bureaucracy in policymaking, with key organizations such as Keidanren (Federation of Economic Organizations) and the National Association of Agricultural Cooperatives playing significant roles, and classified the Japanese policymaking process as a corporatist model. Earlier, Abegglen (1970) explained the intimate relationship among the top elites in the government and the business community in Business Strategy for Japan, and based on his theory a US government document (Kaplan 1972) that described the structure as “Japan Inc.” In this power elite model, there are characteristically three actors: bureaucrats, LDP politicians, and businesses, along with other interest groups who form “the iron triangle.” Van Wolferen (1989) described the Japanese power elite model as “the system,” with a submissive middle class and a group of elites in the bureaucratic, political, and business communities that rule the nation and try to preserve the system. In the power elite model, the bureaucracy plays a pivotal role in policymaking. The bureaucrats developed a highly decentralized, bottom-up policy process. In this process, the main working-level officers were deputy directors of section, according to Nobuo Ishihara, who served as administrative deputy chief cabinet secretary for sevenand-a-half years. Their original proposals were discussed within the section, and if accepted they were brought to a working-level meeting with other sections within the same bureau. Before finalized at a bureau meeting with all the directors of the sections, the proposals were coordinated with officials from other ministry bureaus, related ministries, and politicians who were interested in the policy field (Ishihara 2001, 82). After this bureau meeting, official meetings occurred at higher levels: ministry meetings with all the bureau chiefs, administrative vice-ministers’ meetings, and finally cabinet meetings. But Ishihara emphasized that the bureau meeting was “the actual decision-making organ within the bureaucracy,” and that the bureau chief was “expected to be able to finalize the policy.” As Ishihara stated, “If he cannot, he is no longer qualified in his position” (90). Mulgan (2003, 80) labeled such a bottom-up process the “Un-Westminster” system. In British Westminster systems, the “cabinet under the prime minister conducts substantive policy debate and takes charge of policymaking. Ministers both collectively in cabinet and individually as heads of ministries are the source and authority of all major government policies.” In contrast, in Japan’s Un-Westminster system, the bureaucracy

248   Tomohito Shinoda had “formidable control over the function of policy advice, initiation, formulation and implementation.”

Decentralization within the LDP A bottom-up policymaking system also existed in the LDP. From its 1955 origins, the LDP had a policymaking organ, the Policy Affairs Research Council (PARC). The PARC had seventeen subcommittees (bukai) and more than thirty research commissions. The commissions were designed to deal with broader issues. On the other hand, the subcommittees were set up corresponding to the administrative ministries to influence specific legislation and budget making. After the approval at the subcommittee level, the policy issues were discussed by the full PARC and the General Council, the LDP’s highest decision-making organ, to build a party consensus. In the case of coalition governments, agreements were required from coalition partners. This was the typical bottom-up policymaking process (see Figure 13.1). In the 1950s the PARC played a limited role, as the bureaucracy was dominant in the policymaking process. In 1952 some LDP members boycotted the deliberations on a cabinet-sponsored bill in the Diet, embarrassing Prime Minister Hayato Ikeda as well as the LDP General Council. After this incident, General Council Chairman Munenori Akagi wrote a memo to Chief Cabinet Secretary (CCS) Masayoshi Ōhira requesting party approval of cabinet-sponsored bills before the cabinet approval (Akagi 1962). As prior approval by the party would avoid turmoil at the Diet, Ōhira accepted this request, setting this prior party approval as a political tradition in the LDP. According to Inoguchi and Iwai (1987), the power shift from the bureaucracy to the LDP policy committees became evident after the two oil shocks in the 1970s. In the rapid economic growth period of the 1950s and the 1960s, government revenue significantly increased, and major policy decisions involved the allocation of extra revenue to new Cabinet decision Ministry meeting

Agreement among the ruling parties

Bureau meeting

LDP General Council

Staff-level bureau meeting

Policy Research Council (PRC)

Section meeting

PRC subcommittee

Figure 13.1.  Traditional bottom-up policy process. Reproduced with permission from Tomohito Shinoda, Koizumi Diplomacy: Japan’s Kantei Approach to Foreign and Defense Affairs (Seattle: University of Washington Press), 24. © Tomohito Shinoda, 2007.

The Policymaking Process in Japan   249 programs. As the economy slowed down, however, the government revenue increase also slowed down. This made the bureaucratic officials rely on the political mediations of LDP members for the relocations of funds among government programs. Under the old multi-member electoral district system for the lower house, the LDP Diet members in the same electoral district intentionally chose different policy areas in order to divide votes of LDP supporters (Tatebayashi 2004). In both houses, each LDP member was assigned to up to four PARC subcommittees. The three most popular subcommittees were Construction, Agriculture and Forestry, and Commerce and Industry, to which nearly half of the LDP members belonged. The first two subcommittees were involved with the most political pork in the form of public works and subsidies. The affiliation of the Commerce and Industry Subcommittee helped them to build ties with the business community, which would provide political funds.2 The tradition of prior party approval and the budget constraint made the LDP members in the policy subcommittees very powerful. They accumulated knowledge and experience in specific policy areas by attending the subcommittee meetings, and were identified as zoku, or policy tribes. It became part of the official process for the bu­reauc­ racy to first seek approval from the relevant subcommittee before submitting budget proposals and making other policy decisions at bureau meetings. According to Ishihara (2001, 85), these policy subcommittees dominated the policymaking in the legislative branch: “Since the LDP controlled the government for a long time after the war, an approval at the subcommittees level was virtually the same to the bureaucrats as a de facto approval in the Diet.” The emergence of zoku members and the decentralized policymaking process in the LDP changed Japan’s political structure to be more pluralistic. Many specific policies were handled by zoku members, ministry bureaucrats, and related interest groups, not only outside the Diet but also beyond the reach of the cabinet. These three groups formed a small, issue-specific “iron triangle” in each policy area. In the policymaking process of a broader issue that involved several ministries, these triangles competed with each other for their sectoral interest, showing pluralistic natures. Former CCS Masaharu Gotōda stated, “Defeating the sectionalism of the bureaucracy and their patron LDP members is the biggest challenge the prime minister faces” (Gotōda, interview by author, Tokyo, December 18, 1992). The old multi-member district system created another type of decentralization within the LDP: factionalism. As more than one LDP candidate ran from the same district, the LDP prefectural branches could not support individual candidates. As a result, LDP candidates relied on their factions for electoral and financial support. During the long reign of the LDP, the functions of factions became very strong, and served as a channel for allocating important positions in the government, the Diet, and the LDP. When the prime minister formed a cabinet, he had to consult with the faction leaders for their recommendation. As a result, cabinet members were more grateful to their faction leaders than to the prime minister for their positions, lowering their loyalty to the cabinet. Competition among LDP candidates under the old electoral system also made LDP factions actively seek financial resources, causing the problem of money politics.

250   Tomohito Shinoda

The 1994 Electoral Change As the old multi-member district was seen as a main cause of money politics in the LDP, Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa (in office 1993–1994) passed the electoral reform bill to introduce three hundred single-seat electoral districts and two hundred seats allocated for proportional representation in the lower house. The new electoral system impacted the power structure within the LDP. In the old electoral system, constituents brought case work and requests to the more politically powerful, senior LDP politicians. Under the new single-seat electoral system, even young LDP members had to receive virtually all the requests from their district, giving them more equal footing within the party elders and destroying the hierarchical structure within the LDP. As a result, all the lower-house legislators were pressured to become policy generalists rather than issue-specific specialist zoku members. Under the non-LDP Hosokawa government, the LDP as an opposition party had much less policymaking activities at the PARC subcommittees, and changed its internal rule of PARC membership, allowing its Diet members to participate in any policy subcommittees. Even after the LDP regained control of the government, the PARC and its zoku members did not fully recover their political influence in the government policymaking process. The fact that the LDP has had to form coalition governments since 1994 also weakened the influence of the PARC. Policy coordination with the coalition partners became more important than building consensus within the LDP. Under the coalition government with the Socialist Party and Sakigake, policy-specific project teams were formed with the representatives from the three coalition parties to make policy decisions. Under the Koizumi cabinet, the LDP National Strategy Headquarters announced its final report on the New Decision-Making System, which called for the abolition of the prior party approval in the PARC (LDP National Strategy Headquarters  2002). Although this report was not officially approved by the party, Prime Minister Koizumi used its conceptual framework. In the policymaking process of major national security legislation, such as the 2001 Anti-Terrorism and the 2003 Iraq Special Measures Laws, Koizumi made agreements with the coalition partners, ignoring the consultation step with the PARC. In the case of the 2005 Postal Reform legislation, the prime minister pursued his policy against objections from the PARC subcommittees. Koizumi set a precedent that the prime minister could avoid prior approval by the PARC.

Hashimoto’s Reform to Strengthen the Cabinet Another reform in the 1990s that impacted Japan’s policymaking was Prime Minister Ryūtarō Hashimoto’s administrative reform. In addition to the reorganization of the

The Policymaking Process in Japan   251 central ministries, the reform efforts were devoted to strengthen the power of the prime minister and his cabinet. The Cabinet Law was revised to clearly define the role of the prime minister and the Cabinet Secretariat, the Japanese equivalence of the American White House, in initiating policies. The revised Article 4 explicitly defines the prime minister’s authority to “propose the items including the basic principles concerning the important policies of the Cabinet.” Article 12 details the authorities of the Cabinet Secretariat, which include “planning and framing related to the basic principles concerning the important policies of the Cabinet.” Prior to the revision, the Cabinet Secretariat did not have the authority to draft legislation. This was the point that the bureaucrats had strongly resisted during the deliberation of Hashimoto’s Administrative Reform Council. The existing ministries did not want the Cabinet Secretariat to draft legislation that covered their jurisdiction. Prime Minister Hashimoto made the final decision against the bureaucrats (Shinoda 2013, 101). The Cabinet Decision in May 2000 further reinforced the authority of the Cabinet Secretariat. It states that the Cabinet Secretariat’s role is “to present policy direction for the government as a whole, and coordinate policy strategically and proactively,” and instructs other ministries to recognize that “the Cabinet Secretariat is the highest and final organ for policy coordination under the Cabinet” (Cabinet Secretariat  2000). These arrangements allow the prime minister and the Cabinet Secretariat to initiate and proceed with policies independent of the relevant ministry, and to settle interagency conflicts among the ministries. In order to further coordinate policy among different ministries, Hashimoto’s administrative reforms allowed the Cabinet Secretariat to create ad hoc offices for specific policy areas. This arrangement was meant to provide institutional flexibility by not assigning important policy issues to specific ministries. Under the Koizumi administration, thirteen to fifteen ad hoc policy offices were established.3 These ad hoc offices significantly expanded the size of the Kantei (the prime minister’s office). The number of officials at the Cabinet Secretariat in 2006 was 655, over three times more than prior to 2001. The power balance between the Cabinet Secretariat and the ministries significantly changed, as Hashimoto’s administrative reform strengthened the authority of the cabinet to screen bureaucrats for two hundred high official positions (bureau chiefs and above) for all the ministries. Prior to the reform, the authority to appoint bureaucrats simply belonged to the relevant minister, and the minister only needed to seek cabinet “understanding.” After the reform, the appointments required cabinet approval, effectively giving a veto power to the cabinet on the appointment of high officials. As a result of these changes, the Cabinet Secretariat became powerful in the policymaking process, and its head, the CCS, began playing a pivotal role. The CCS is directly involved in the policymaking process for virtually all the important issues. Even when he or she is not directly involved, the CCS must vet the decisions. The fact that two ­former chief cabinet secretaries, Shinzō Abe and Yasuo Fukuda, became prime minister without any other cabinet experience symbolized the elevated status of the position.

252   Tomohito Shinoda The Prime Minister Policy instruction

Report

Chief Cabinet Secretary Consultation Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary

Related Ministries

Policy coordination Policy assignment

Policy report

Policy Unit

Related Ministries

Policy coordination

Figure 13.2.  The conceptual line of policymaking. Reproduced from Tomohito Shinoda, Koizumi Diplomacy: Japan’s Kantei Approach to Foreign and Defense Affairs (Seattle: University of Washington Press), 78. © Tomohito Shinoda, 2007.

According to Teijirō Furukawa, who served as the Deputy CCS for eight-and-a-half years, Prime Minister Junichirō Koizumi (in office 2001–2006) took advantage of the strengthened authority of the cabinet, and introduced the top-down policymaking proc­ess (Shinoda 2007, 78–79). Koizumi frequently instructed CCS Fukuda to initiate policies. Fukuda ordered Deputy CCS Furukawa to take action, and the latter announced at the subcabinet meeting where all the administrative vice-ministers gathered the prime minister’s intention to let the entire bureaucracy know about the policy directions. Furukawa then assigned officers in the policy unit of the Cabinet Secretariat to the task. The assigned officers consulted and coordinated with the related ministries and reported back to Furukawa. Furukawa consulted policy implementation to CCS Fukuda, and reported to Prime Minister Koizumi (see Figure 13.2).

Top-Down Fiscal Policymaking under Koizumi Further improving the supporting organ of the cabinet was the establishment of the Cabinet Office. This office is headed by the prime minister, and organizationally located in the cabinet. Therefore, the office ranks higher than other ministries. The prime minister can appoint cabinet ministers for special missions at the Cabinet Office to assist the cabinet. Prime Minister Koizumi became the first national leader who took advantage of the new office. In the area of fiscal and budget policies, his predecessor, Yoshirō Mori,

The Policymaking Process in Japan   253 established the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policies (CEFP) in January 2001. However, Prime Minister Mori had no intention of taking advantage of the new council during his tenure. Koizumi appointed Heizō Takenaka, an economics professor at Keio University, as minister of financial affairs (later, minister of economic and fiscal affairs) at the Cabinet Office to take charge of the CEFP. Economic Minister Takenaka came up with an idea of introducing the Basic Policies (honebuto no hōshin) for the budget. According to the Public Finance Act, the national budget-making authority belongs to the finance minister. In the traditional budget making, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced the budget ceiling for each fiscal year. Then the budget examiners in the MOF’s Budget Bureau formed a budget based on the budget proposal of each ministry. As a result, the budget-making process was compartmentalized ministry by ministry, and budget reallocation among ministries was impossible. The new top-down fiscal policymaking changed this situation. At the June 2001 CEFP meeting, Takenaka introduced the outline of the Basic Policies, including the major items of Koizumi’s reform—the privatization of postal services and special public corporations, and the thirty-trillion-yen ceiling on debt-financing bonds. The Basic Policies were approved by the cabinet without going through the administrative vice ministers’ meeting. According to Deputy CCS Furukawa, this process symbolized the political initiative of the new fiscal policymaking (Furukawa, interview by author, October 30, 2003). Throughout the process, Takenaka did not consult with the LDP PARC policy subcommittees. Prime Minister Koizumi instructed him to ignore the traditional log-rolling process and not to contact zoku members even if demanded to do so. Koizumi told Takenaka to give an explanation only to the chair of the PARC, who would bear the responsibility to persuade fellow LDP members (Iijima 2006, 62). At the July 2001 CEFP meeting, the MOF budget bureau chief reported that the government needed to reduce spending by three trillion yen in order to achieve Koizumi’s thirty-trillion-yen limit on debt-financing bonds. Koizumi made the decision to drastically reallocate the budget across the board in the entire government by cutting five trillion yen in nonpriority programs and increasing two trillion yen in the priority policy areas. The following morning, senior MOF officials visited the Kantei) to express their concern about the drastic budget reallocation, and suggested consulting with the LDP. Koizumi flatly refused their suggestion and instructed them to draw up a detailed proposal that followed the CEFP decision. Koizumi’s assistant, Isao Iijima, wrote in his memoir that “[t]his was a historic moment when the budget formation initiative shifted from the MOF to the Kantei” (2006, 67). MOF officials presented the budget outlines, with a two-trillion-yen increase in seven prioritized policy areas and a 10 percent cut in all other areas. Koizumi then instructed cabinet ministers to come up with a reform plan to meet the budget cut. According to Iijima, “One minister stated that this was ‘the evaluation’ of each minister by the prime minister. Ministers were judged by their reform plans to see how much power they have over the bureaucracy and the vested interested group” (2006, 67). The ministers competed with each other in cutting their budgets. As a result, the budget for public works, which often became a source of pork barrel for LDP politicians, was cut by 10.1 percent.

254   Tomohito Shinoda Fiscal expenditure for the special public corporations were cut by 21.1 percent, creating strong pressure for the forthcoming privatization of many of them, including the postal service. Koizumi and Takenaka effectively used the CEFP as a forum to tackle economic structural reform through budget outlines. In the spring of 2002, spending ministries and industry representatives began to lobby CEFP members for the FY2003 budget, rather than MOFA officials or the LDP PARC subcommittee members. Deputy CCS Furukawa stated, “It was at this time that I realized the budget-making power had truly shifted from the MOF into the hands of the Kantei” (Furukawa, interview by author, October 30, 2003). Koizumi took advantage of the new institutional arrangements brought by Hashimoto’s administrative reform, including the CEFP, to introduce new fiscal policymaking practices and postal privatization. But after the postal reform legislation was enacted, Koizumi appointed Kaoru Yosano, a former PARC chairman known as a proMOF member, as economic minister in charge of the CEFP, which soon came under the strong control of the PARC and bureaucrats. In order to reform government financial institutions, Koizumi could no longer rely on the CEFP. Under the consecutive administrations of Shinzō Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, and Tarō Asō, the CEFP never played an instrumental role in fiscal policymaking or major economic reform. The CEFP was abolished under the Democratic Party of Japan government (2009–2012), and reinstalled under the second Abe government in January 2013.

Failed Attempts by the DPJ Governments In September 2009, the DPJ overthrew the LDP to seize power over the government, and Yukio Hatoyama became the prime minister. Hatoyama portrayed the past LDP governments as being controlled by the bureaucracy, and declared that the DPJ would promote political leadership within the government. On the day he assumed office, he introduced “the Basic Policy,” which outlined the DPJ’s policy to strengthen political leadership. Three principles were included in the document: (1) to strengthen political leadership within the ministries, (2) to centralize policymaking in the hands of the cabinet, and (3) to strengthen political leadership on interagency policy coordination (Cabinet Secretariat 2009).

Political Leadership in the Ministries The Basic Policy stated that “the operation of the national government must be shifted from bureaucratic initiative or reliance on bureaucrats to political initiative or people’s

The Policymaking Process in Japan   255 initiative” (Cabinet Secretariat 2009, paragraph 3). In order to achieve this goal, the document asserted the establishment of a “three-political-appointees’ conference” (seimu sanyaku kaigi) in each ministry, to “plan and coordinate policies from a people’s point of view” (Cabinet Secretariat 2009, paragraph 4). In each conference, the minister, the senior vice minister, and the parliamentary secretaries were to make policy decisions. Under the DPJ government, the ministers regularly held meetings with their subcabinet members, were briefed along with the bureaucrats, and collectively made decisions. In some of the ministries, they held exclusive meetings, not allowing any bureaucratic officials to attend. Some of them micromanaged administrative tasks and did not allow bureaucrats to make any important decisions. For example, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology changed an internal rule to shift the decisionmaking authority for many ministerial tasks from the administrative vice minister to the senior vice minister. Official letters, which were previously sent from the office of the top bureaucrat, were now signed by the senior vice minister (Asahi Shimbun 2010a). The decision-making authority of the bureaucrats was drastically reduced, therefore. As a result, the chain of command within the ministries was destroyed. As the political appointees directly asked division directors about policy information and gave them instructions, there were many cases where the administrative vice minister and the bureau chief did not know the policy outcomes. There were many concerns about the lowered morale of the bureaucrats now out of the policy loop (Asahi Shimbun 2010b).

Centralization of Policymaking Hatoyama’s Basic Policy also declared that “the decision of the government would be made by the cabinet, not by the party” (Cabinet Secretariat 2009, paragraph 4). The DPJ had the Policy Research Committee (PRC), similar to LDP’s PARC. DPJ Secretary General Ichirō Ozawa abolished the PRC and announced that all PRC functions would be shifted to the government in order to completely centralize policymaking. Then, a question arouse regarding how to handle petitions from local governments and interest groups. Under the LDP government, they lobbied zoku members in the PARC subcommittee through their parliamentary representatives. Ozawa decided to form the Office of the Secretary General to serve as the sole window for these petitions for screening requests and delivery to the political appointees of the related ministries. This significantly strengthened the political power of Ozawa (Asahi Shimbun 2009).

Political Leadership on Interagency Policy Coordination In the Basic Policy, Hatoyama declared that he and his chief cabinet secretary would organize British-style cabinet meetings with related cabinet ministers to coordinate policies. Under the LDP government, cabinet meetings were more ceremonial. Policy decisions had already been coordinated and formed by the bureaucrats prior to the

256   Tomohito Shinoda meetings. Hatoyama also announced the abolishment of the administrative vice-ministers’ meeting, which the DPJ leaders portrayed as a symbol of Japan’s bureaucratic supremacy, because almost all cabinet decisions were preapproved by this meeting under the LDP government. The abolition of the subcabinet meeting weakened the power of the prime minister, the chief cabinet secretary, and especially the administrative deputy CCS who chaired the meeting. As all the policy issues had to be finalized at the subcabinet meeting, ministry officials usually had frequent prior consultation with the CCS and the deputy CCS under the LDP government. This process had provided important sources of information from the government agencies. When there were conflicts among different agencies, consultations and negotiations took place at the different bureaucratic levels—among the deputy directors, the directors, the bureau chiefs, and the vice ministers. When the conflicts were not solved by the bureaucrats, the CCS and the deputy CCS stepped in for policy coordination. Hatoyama’s principle for the DPJ political appointees to take over the interagency policy coordination among the ministries destroyed the bureaucratic networks and weakened the policy coordination power of the Kantei. The Hatoyama cabinet introduced institutional changes in order to strengthen political leadership vis-à-vis bureaucrats. These changes did not create strong political leadership within the government, but instead created a weak bureaucracy due to lowered moral. The successive DPJ governments under Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda tried to improve relations with the bureaucrats, but they could not fully recover them to effectively receive policy expertise from the bureaucrats.

Developments under the Second Abe Government As a result of the LDP’s landslide victory in the general election, Shinzō Abe again became the prime minister on December 26, 2012. Abe quickly moved to reinstate the administrative vice ministerial meeting, which the DPJ government had abolished. The subcabinet panel began its weekly meeting on the third day of the new administration. Prime Minister Abe attended its first meeting and stated, “In order to tackle the crises our country faces, it is necessary to promote real political leadership based on mutual trust between political leaders and bureaucrats” (Kantei 2012). The subcabinet meeting reestablished important sources of power for the prime minister, the CCS, and especially the administrative deputy CCS. The panel helped promote the prime minister’s policy initiatives within the ministries. As all government policies would be reported at the subcabinet meeting, the bureaucratic leaders would have prior consultation with the CCS and the deputy CCS, and would frequently ask for their coordination when conflicts existed among different agencies. Under the subcabinet panel,

The Policymaking Process in Japan   257 a multilayered network of interagency policy coordination among bureau chiefs, directors, and their deputies to promote the cabinet’s initiative was reestablished. The Cabinet Secretariat under the second Abe administration expanded significantly. The number of ad hoc policy offices rose from 13–15 under the Koizumi administration to 18 under the DPJ government. This number increased to 26–35 between 2012 and 2018, boosting the number of officials at the Cabinet Secretariat to more than 1,100. In his policy speech on January 22, 2013, Abe outlined his policies, with the highest priority on economic revival, and reinstated the CEFP as a control tower for a broad range of economic policies. Abe’s economic plan was soon labeled “Abenomics” by the media. Abenomics consisted of “three arrows”: a monetary easing policy, an expansive fiscal policy, and economic growth strategies to encourage private investment. At the first CEFP meeting in January 2013, Prime Minister Abe set a 2 percent inflation target as the first arrow, and pressured the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to drastically ease monetary policy to overcome chronic deflation and the strong yen that troubled many export-oriented corporations. BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa, however, was hesitant to comply with the government’s desire for more aggressive measures to fight against deflation, and was forced to step down on March 19. To replace him, Abe picked former MOF vice minister and Asian Development Bank president Haruhiko Kuroda, who had been a vocal critic of the BOJ policies. The market reacted positively to Abe’s economic initiatives as the yen weakened to over 95 yen per dollar and the Nikkei Stock Average returned to the level of the fall 2008 pre-Lehman shock era. In order to shoot the second arrow of Abenomics, the Abe cabinet formed a 13.1 trillion yen supplementary budget plan, the second-biggest of its kind, close to the record high of 14.7 trillion yen set by the Aso cabinet in spring 2009. Ten trillion yen would be used for “emergency economic measures,” and about half of that amount was spent on public works projects, revitalizing the traditional LDP “pork politics.” This was different from the CEFP under the Koizumi cabinet, which set a tight ceiling on fiscal deficits to force the structural reform of the existing government programs. The CEFP, however, set important policy goals for the government by annually announcing the Basic Policy. On the national security policy front, there were two agenda items that Abe failed to achieve during his first premiership, and that he was eager to push through during his second cabinet: the establishment of a Japanese version of the US-style National Security Council (NSC) and the reinterpretation of the constitution to allow Japan to exercise the right of collective self-defense. In order to establish the NSC, Abe used the tactic of using advisory councils of experts. In January 2013, a hostage crisis developed when al-Qaeda–linked terrorists took more than eight hundred people hostage at a gas facility in Algeria, which resulted in the death of ten Japanese nationals. To Abe, this incident reconfirmed the need for the establishment of an NSC, which would gather and analyze information to deal with such crisis situations. On February 15, Abe held the first meeting of a government panel of expert to consider the creation of an NSC. The panel held six meetings by the end of May. Based on the discussions at the panel, the Abe cabinet formed and approved the

258   Tomohito Shinoda NSC legislation on July 6. The legislation was enacted on November 27, and the NSC was formally inaugurated on December 4. On January 7, 2014, the National Security Secretariat (NSS) was formed to assist the NSC, with nearly seventy staff seconded from the central ministries, mostly from the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense. The NSC became an important forum for the prime minister, the CCS, and the foreign and defense ministers to meet to share common views on international events, and to quickly respond to crisis situations such as the March 2014 Ukraine crisis and the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014.4 To discuss Japan’s right to collective self-defense, Prime Minister Abe also formed the Advisory Panel on Reconstruction of the Legal Basis for Security in February 2014. This panel was first established under Abe’s first cabinet, but its report was never implemented due to his sudden resignation. In mid-May, after seven meetings, the panel introduced a final report to recommend a reinterpretation of the constitution to enable Japan to exercise the right of collective self-defense (Kantei 2014). Based on the advisory panel’s report, Abe prepared the negotiation with the LDP’s coalition partner, Kōmeito. Abe appointed LDP vice president and former foreign minister Masahiko Kōmura to negotiate with his Kōmeito counterpart, Kazuo Kitagawa. The interparty negotiation process was supported by the senior staff of the NSS. After the negotiation, a very strict limitation was imposed to make it possible for collective self-defense to be activated. The condition was that there must be “a clear danger that the survival of Japan is threatened and the right of the Japanese people to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness could be overthrown.” This was not much different from parameters given for the exercise of the right of individual self-defense. But in any light, based on this agreement, the Abe cabinet made a decision to make the reinterpretation official on July 1, 2014 (Cabinet Office 2014). After the cabinet decision was made, Abe formed a thirty-member team within the NSS to draft new national security legislation. This team was headed by two deputy secretaries general of the NSS, and consisted of two teams—one to handle interagency coordination and the other to work on revision of the existing laws. The Ministry of Defense established the Study Committee on the Development of Security Legislations (Ministry of Defense 2016). The NSS team identified ten laws that needed to be revised under the jurisdiction of the Cabinet Office, the Ministry of Defense, and the Cabinet Secretariat, and prepared their revisions. As the preparation by the NSS team progressed in February 2015, the LDP and Kōmeito formed “the Government Parties’ Council on the Development on National Security Legislations.” The council was held twenty-five times. Among the heated debates in the council was the coverage of the permanent security law, along with prior Diet approval for the overseas dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). The LDP wanted to make a comprehensive security law to include both international contribution activities, such as peacekeeping operations, and activities related to Japan’s selfdefense. Kōmeito argued for a division into two laws, and prior Diet approval for the overseas dispatch of the SDF. On both of these points, the LDP compromised.

The Policymaking Process in Japan   259 As the LDP made many other compromises in order to acquire approval from its coalition partner, there was no room to make adjustments to meet requests from the other LDP members. The negotiation process was merely reported to them, stating the results of negotiation with Kōmeito at the LDP headquarters. After the legislation was submitted to the Diet on May 15, the opposition parties had difficulty drawing any compromises from the government, and strongly opposed the legislation in the Diet. During the deliberation in the upper house, three small opposition parties—the Party for Future Generation, the Assembly to Energize Japan, and the New Renaissance Party— expressed their support on the condition that Diet involvement for the SDF dispatch be strengthened. As a result, the legislation was enacted on September 19. In national security policymaking, the prime minister first asked the advisory councils of experts to provide theoretical support for policy directions. Based on their recommendations, Abe established the NSC, reinterpreted the constitution, and enacted new security legislation. The newly established NSC played an instrumental role in the last three cases of national security policymaking. In the process of the reinterpreting the constitution and creating new security legislation, the coalition partner, Kōmeito, was influential. In the process of all the above-mentioned national security policies, the LDP PARC’s influence was very limited.

Conclusion In the traditional policymaking process under the LDP government, the bureaucracy played a central role in planning, drafting, and log-rolling policies vis-à-vis other ministries, the LDP, and the opposition parties. As the LDP PARC became influential, its zoku members induced the government to modify government policies, and were reluctant to delegate power to the cabinet. The prime minister, constrained by complex political forces, such as sectorialism in the government and factionalism within the LDP, played a cautious role in many of the policy areas. Most of the important policymaking exchanges took place between the bureaucracy and the LDP zoku members, while the role of the prime minister and the Diet was very limited, as illustrated by the figure on the left in Figure 13.3 (Tanaka 2019, 27). This situation transformed under the Koizumi and the second Abe cabinets. The 1994 electoral system reform drastically changed power within the LDP. It strengthened the prime minister as a party leader, while weakening the influence of factions and zoku members. Furthermore, the administrative reform under the Hashimoto cabinet strengthened the authority of the prime minister and the Cabinet Secretariat. Koizumi took advantage of these institutional changes and introduced the top-down policymaking process through the CEFP in the fiscal policy formation and the post office privatization, intentionally ignoring the influence of the LDP and its PARC. The second Abe cabinet also reinstated the CEFP and the top-down policy process to promote

260   Tomohito Shinoda LDP LDP members

Cabinet Prime Minister Minister

Zoku members

Interest groups

Cabinet LDP members

Prime Minister Ministers Ministerial Meetings

Bureaucracy Bureaucracy Government

LDP/Bureaucracy-led Government

Cabinet-led Government

Figure 13.3.  Changes in Japanese decision-making. Reproduced with permission from Hideaki Tanaka,  2019, Kanryotachi no Fuyu [Winter for the bureaucrats] (Tokyo: Shogakkan Shinsho), 28. © Hideaki Tanaka, 2019.

“Abenomics,” although the prime minister did not take the confrontational approach against the LDP that Koizumi had used. On the other hand, in the national security arena, Abe was willing to ignore the influence of the LDP while securing support from Kōmeito. Under Koizumi and the second Abe cabinet, the policymaking system transformed to a cabinet-led government, as illustrated by the figure on the right in Figure 13.3. This centralized policymaking process under Koizumi and Abe was made possible by their strong determination and the administration’s stability. Whether or not future prime minister will be able to maintain it remains uncertain.

Notes 1. Article 46 of the Government Section draft reads: “The Prime Minister introduces bills on behalf of the cabinet, reports to the Diet on general affairs of State and the status of foreign relations, exercises control and supervision over the several executive departments and agencies” (http://www.ndl.go.jp/constitution/shiryo/03/076a_e/076a_etx.html). On the role of the Cabinet Legal Bureau officials, see “Naikakuhō Kankei Kaidan Yōshi (Dai 3kai)” [The summary of conversation on the cabinet law No.3], November 19, 1946, the MOFA diplomatic record, A’-0091, 230–231. 2. In 1986 there were 183 LDP Diet members on the Construction Subcommittee, 178 on the Agriculture and Forestry Subcommittee, and 154 on the Commerce and Industry Subcommittee (Inoguchi and Iwai 1987, 133). 3. As of May 2005, there were policy offices on fifteen policy areas: (1) Information Security, (2) Information and Technology, (3) Administrative Reform Promotion, (4) Treatment of Abandoned Chemical Weapon, (5) Urban Renaissance, (6) Special Zones for Structural Reform, (7) Supporting Abductees and Their Families, (8) Intellectual Property Strategy Promotion, (9) Supporting Iraqi Reconstruction, (10) Regional Renewal, (11) Continental

The Policymaking Process in Japan   261 Shelf Research, (12) Port and Airport Crisis Management, (13) Privatization of the Postal Service, (14) Decentralization of Government Authority, and (15) Judicial Reform. 4. For evaluation of the NSC, see PHP Sōken 2015.

References Abegglen, James. 1970. Business Strategy for Japan. Tokyo: Sophia University. Akagi, Munenori. 1962. Letter from LDP General Council chairman to the chief cabinet secretary, February 23, 1962. Asahi Shimbun. 2010a. “Jikan Usureyuku Sonzaikan” [Vice minister with diminishing presence]. Asahi Shimbun, January 15, 2010. Asahi Shimbun. 2010b. “Kasumigaseki tono Kyōsei wo Saguru” [To explore coexistence with the bureaucrats]. Asahi Shimbun, March 16, 2010. Asahi Shimbun. 2009. “Kanjichōshitsu Ozawa-shi no Shiro” [The office of secretary general, the castle of Mr. Ozawa]. Asahi Shimbun, November 19, 2009. Cabinet Office. 2014. “Cabinet Decision on Development of Seamless Security Legislation to Ensure Japan’s Survival and Protect its People.” Tokyo: Cabinet Office, July 1, 2014. https:// www.cas.go.jp/jp/gaiyou/jimu/pdf/anpohosei_eng.pdf. Cabinet Secretariat. 2000. “The Guidelines of Policy Coordination System.” Cabinet Decision, May 30, 2000. Cabinet Secretariat. 2009. “The Basic Policy.” Cabinet Decision, September 15, 2009. http:// www.kantei.go.jp/jp/kakugikettei/2009/0916kihonhousin.html. Curtis, Gerald. 1988. The Japanese Way of Politics. New York: Columbia University Press. Gotōda, Masaharu. 1988. Seiji towa Nanika [What is politics?]. Tokyo: Kodansha. Iijima, Isao. 2006. Koizumi Kantei Hiroku [Secret story of the prime minister’s office under Koizumi]. Tokyo: Nihon Keizai Shimbun-sha. Inoguchi, Takashi, and Tomoaki Iwai. 1987. “Zoku Giin” no Kenkyū [Study on “zoku members”]. Tokyo: Nihon Keizai Shimbun-sha. Ishihara, Nobuo. 2001. Kengen no Daiidō [The major transfer of authority]. Tokyo: Kanki Shuppan. Johnson, Chalmers. 1982. MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925–1975. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Kantei. 2012. “Jikan Renraku Kaigi (Administrative Vice-Ministers Liaison Committee).” Tokyo: Kantei, December 28, 2012. https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/96_abe/actions/201212 /28jikankaigi.html. Kantei. 2014. “Report of the Advisory Panel on Reconstruction of the Legal Basis for Security.” Tokyo: Kantei, May 15, 2014. https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/anzenhosyou2/dai7/houkoku _en.pdf. Kaplan, Eugene J. 1972. Japan: The Government-Business Relationship. Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce. Kohno, Masaru. 1997. Japan’s Postwar Party Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. LDP National Strategy Headquarters, National Vision Making Committee. 2018. “Seiji Sisutemu” [Politcal sytem], March 13, 2002. Cited in Seiji Shudō no Jidai [The era for political leadership], by Yasuoka Masaharu. Tokyo: Chūō Kōron Shinsha, 2008. Ministry of Defense. 2016. Defense of Japan 2016. Tokyo: Ministry of Defense.

262   Tomohito Shinoda Mulgan, Aurelia George. 2003. “Japan’s ‘Un-Westminster’ System: Impediments to Reform in a Crisis Economy.” Government and Opposition 38, no. 1 (Winter): 73–91. Nakane, Chie. 1972. Human Relations in Japan: Summary Translation of “Tate Shakai no Ningen Kankei.” Tokyo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Pempel, T.  J., and Keiichi Tsunekawa. 1979. “Corporatism without Labor? The Japanese Anomaly.” In Trends toward Corporatist Intermediation, edited by Philippe C. Schumitter and Gerherd Lehmbruch, 231–269. Beverly Hills, CA: SAGE. PHP Sōken. 2015. “Kokka Anzen Hoshō Kaigi” [The national security council]. Tokyo: PHP Sōken, November 26, 2015. https://thinktank.php.co.jp/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/seisaku _teigen20151126.pdf. Ramseyer, J.  Mark, and Frances McCall Rosenbluth. 1993. Japan’s Political Marketplace. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Richardson, Bradley M., and Scott C. Flanagan. 1984. Politics in Japan. Boston: Little, Brown. Shinoda, Tomohito. 2007. Koizumi Diplomacy: Japan’s Kantei Approach to Foreign and Defense Affairs. Seattle: University of Washington Press. Shinoda, Tomohito. 2013. Seiji Shudō vs. Kanryō Shihai [Political leadership vs. bureaucratic control]. Tokyo: Asahi Shinbunsha. Tanaka, Hideaki. 2019. Kanryōtachi no Fuyu [Winter for the bureaucrats]. Tokyo: Shōgakkan Shinsho. Tatebayashi, Masahiko. 2004. Giin Kōdō no Seiji Keizaigaku: Jimintō Shihai no Seido Bunseki [The logic of legislators’ activities: Institutional analysis of LDP dominance in Japan]. Tokyo: Yuhikaku. Tsuji, Kiyoaki. 1969. Shinban Nihon Kanryōsei no Kenkyū [New Edition Study on the Japanese bureaucratic system]. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppankai. van Wolferen, Karel. 1989. The Enigma of Japanese Power. New York: Knopf.

Chapter 14

The Effect of Ch a ngi ng Politica l Con texts on Pu blic Opi n ion i n Ja pa n, 1945–2020 Yukio Maeda

The history of elections in Japan started under the Meiji Constitution. Public opinion was not a primary source of legitimacy for the government in prewar Japan because the Meiji Constitution depended upon “a line of Emperors unbroken for ages eternal” (Article 1) for justification. The only constitutional clause that guaranteed the expression of popular will in politics was Article 35, which prescribed that members of the House of Representatives (HR) be elected. But all details on elections and campaigning were left to legislation. The constitution itself placed some limits; for example, freedom of speech could be legally restricted (Article 29). Indeed, during the last few years of the Meiji Constitution, the news media were censored, and dissent was blatantly suppressed as a part of wartime efforts. Public opinion had no chance to influence public affairs in such an authoritarian political environment. It was only under the 1947 Constitution of Japan that public opinion could begin to play a role in democratic politics. “We, the Japanese people, acting through our duly elected representatives in the National Diet . . . do proclaim that sovereign power resides with the people and do firmly establish this Constitution” (preamble). Research on public opinion in Japan began only after democratic institutions were introduced following Japan’s defeat in World War II. However, it is not easy to define what public opinion is, because its definition changes according to the historical context and the political phenomenon under study (Herbst  1995). This essay focuses on the decades after survey research became the standard method for measuring public opinion in Japan. I will focus on specific aspects of public opinion that are important in

264   Yukio Maeda understanding the public affairs of the time, including their political contexts. The time periods covered in this review fall roughly into three phases, based on the prevailing pattern of party politics in the Diet. It is necessary to pay attention to party politics to understand public opinion because the dynamics of elite political discourses largely determine how the public responds to political issues (Zaller 1992). Public opinion during the first ten years after the end of the World War II was assessed using published newspaper poll results and local election surveys. In this period, severe living conditions kept the public mostly concerned about the economy, but the early 1950s also prepared the foundation for the next three decades. Secondly, public opinion under the 1955 party system will be outlined. Early in the 1960s, the confrontation between two ideological positions—“conservative” (hoshu) and “progressive” (kakushin)— became institutionalized as a competition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Socialist Party (JSP). Ordinary Japanese people also started understanding politics through the lens of this ideological battle, which is abbreviated as the “hokaku ideologies” in Japanese. However, the pattern of bipolar political competition gradually dissipated over time. Third, after the end of the Cold War and two major institutional reforms, the nature of competition between political parties changed dramatically and their policies provided less clear signals for understanding politics than before. Consequently, people started elastically responding to the short-­term performance of the incumbent government.

Public Opinion in the Early Postwar Years: 1945–1955 It is possible to trace the origins of survey research in Japan to the prewar period.1 However, it is fair to say that opinion research based on probability sampling started under the supervision of the US Occupation as a part of its democratization effort. The first sample survey in Japan was the American military’s effort to examine the impact of strategic bombing on the psyche of the Japanese public (George 1947). Then, in order to better assess the state of the economy, the Statistics Bureau of the Japanese government used probability sampling in its household economic and labor force surveys. Major newspapers such as Asahi, Mainichi, and Yomiuri started opinion polling with probability sampling as early as 1948 (for details, please see Maeda 2019).2 Public opinion polling by the national newspapers provides a snapshot of how ordinary people responded to the politics of the day. Media opinion polls until the end of 1949 asked many questions on a variety of topics related to the postwar political situation and reforms, such as the status of the emperor, economic hardship and food shortages, tax burden, national police system, newspapers, and new education systems. Jun’ichi Kyogoku, one of the pioneers of public opinion research in Japan, assembled and examined newspaper polling results published during the Occupation period. He explains that as ultranationalism and brutal militarism became things of the past, but

The Effect of Changing Political Contexts on Public Opinion   265 expressions of leftist radicalism were stifled under orders from the US Occupation, people turned their attention away from public life and focused on their personal economic lives. This preoccupation with personal and family life, somewhat ironically, formed a strong base for antiwar and anti-­ militarist sentiment for the next few decades (Kyogoku  1968, 155–171). However, international security was not a concern for the Japanese public at all, presumably because it was not at the forefront of policy debates. Though no social scientist had the resources to conduct nationwide surveys early in the postwar years, a few political scientists approached public opinion and voting behavior by gathering probability samples from local communities. Masamichi Royama and his colleagues conducted the first election survey, though local, for the first general election under the new constitution (Royama 1949). One urban community and one rural community in Tokyo were selected and respondents were drawn randomly for face-­to-­face interviews. The title of the report, The Anatomy of Political Beliefs, implies that the primary purpose of the study was to examine whether people were qualified as “democratic citizens” under the newly introduced democratic institutions. The report documented how people responded to public affairs. The dominant issues of concern among the public were “taxes” and “inflation.” People then were simply preoccupied with keeping body and soul together. Issues such as constitutional reform and rearmament, which later dominated political controversies, were not primary concerns in the first few years of US Occupation.3 The party system was also very unstable in the first postwar years. The political parties can be roughly divided into the three blocs: “conservative,” “middle,” and “progressive.” Short-­lived coalition governments between the “middle” and “progressive” parties were formed twice, in 1947 and 1948. Politician turnover was very high. Political parties split and merged within a short period of time. The frequent changes in party labels and numerous defections of Diet members from one party to another made partisan conflict unclear (Reed 1988). The instability of the party system made public opinion in the early postwar years more difficult to comprehend than in later years. However, antiwar sentiment among ordinary people, reinforced by their preoccupation with personal and family life, was clear and unmistakable. People viewed the issue of self-­ defense idealistically, not in light of the realities of world politics. In one Yomiuri opinion poll, 88.3 percent of people hoped for no involvement in another war (Yomiuri, August 15, 1949). The establishment of the People’s Republic of China in October 1949 and the subsequent outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950 dramatically changed the international environment for Japan. The issues of rearmament, the US-­Japan Security Treaty, and constitutional revision moved to the forefront of political battles (Sakaiya 2017, 72–102). Around the same time, newspaper opinion surveys started asking questions on how people felt about rearmament, whether a constitutional revision was needed for rearmament, and whether Japan should form an alliance with the United States or take a neutral position between the United States and the Soviet Union. The turmoil in the Korean peninsula propelled people to think about how, in practice, Japan could be protected from foreign invasion. In a Mainichi poll conducted in August 1950, only 7.4 percent of respondents answered “Japan should defend itself alone.” The most popular answer, selected by 32.7 percent, was “Increase the power of self-­defense while relying on the

266   Yukio Maeda United States” (Mainichi, September 3, 1950). The public was equally divided between the 41.2 percent who were willing to have US troops stationed in Japan and the 38.4 percent who were unwilling to do so (Mainichi, January 3, 1951). The policy positions of “conservative” and “progressive” regarding international security issues, which later defined partisan confrontation at the elite level, emerged in response to shifting international environment in East Asia. More specifically, through the process of concluding the Treaty of San Francisco in September 1951 and the controversies over Japan’s rearmament—from the creation of the National Police Reserve in August 1950 to the establishment of the Self-­Defense Forces in July 1954—the political parties were gradually splitting into the two clearly opposing camps. The policy position of the “middle of the road” became politically unsustainable (Takenaka 1994). Two general elections held within six months (October 1952 and April 1953) were critical in accelerating this bifurcation. The two camps’ responses to the rapidly changing international environment helped consolidate their public images as “war-­prone conservatives in favor of rearmament” and “progressives against rearmament and for peace” (Miyazaki 1988). Looking at the micro level, we can verify that those policy opinions and party choices formed strong linkages. Royama and his colleagues conducted the second local election survey for the 1952 general election. Again, they picked an urban community and a rural community in Tokyo. Questions about five issues were asked in face-­to-­face interviews. Though each issue contributed to voting decisions in one way or another, the most important issue that explained people’s voting choice in the urban community was rearmament (Royama 1955, 112–114). The issue of rearmament is also directly linked to the US-­Japan Security Treaty and to debates over how to interpret Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan. Through these two elections, Japan’s party system started rapidly taking the form of a bipolar partisan competition between the conservative and progressive groups, forcing the former “middle” (or liberal) parties to move closer to the conservative parties (Miyazaki 1988). The Japanese public was also in favor of clear-­cut, two-­party-­style competition (Kyogoku 1968, 114–132). The merger of the two socialist parties into the Japan Socialist Party (JSP) and the formation of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 1955 marked an important watershed in public opinion in Japan as well as party politics. The pattern of party competition that emerged is called the “party system of 1955” (Scalapino and Masumi 1962), in which the dominant LDP always won more than half of the seats in the Diet but the opposition parties secured more than one third of the seats, enough to block proposed constitutional revisions.

The Hokaku Ideologies and 1955 Party System Era: 1955 to the mid-­1990s The most important political changes after World War II were completed before political scientists could administer a nationwide election survey. After 1955, political scientists

The Effect of Changing Political Contexts on Public Opinion   267 continued to conduct local election surveys. For example, researchers at Waseda University conducted a series of local surveys from 1958 to 1969 (Tanifuji 2000). Miyake Ichiro and his colleagues endeavored to field a five-­wave panel survey between 1961 and 1962 in the city of Uji, Kyoto (Miyake et al. 1967). Researchers at Hokkaido University also conducted local election surveys repeatedly in Sapporo from 1971 to 1986 (Kawato 1988; Araki 1994). The main purpose of the pioneers of Japanese public opinion research was to discover how ordinary people understood and were responding to the new political environment and their new role as voters. However, after 1955, researchers were more interested in theoretical explanations. Also, as the 1955 party system gradually gained stability, media pollsters started repeating the same question wordings for party support and cabinet approval. We can reliably trace Japanese people’s support for political parties and approval of the incumbent cabinet starting in the early 1960s (Maeda 2019). The longest continuous time series of public opinion data is provided by Jiji Press, which started polling with its current format and methodology in June 1960. The time series of support for the LDP and approval for the cabinet headed by the LDP prime ministers is shown in Figure 14.1. The vertical lines are drawn to indicate the major changes of government during the past fifty-­nine years. The first line from the left is drawn at August 1993, when the LDP lost power for the first time since 1955. The second line is at January 1996, when the LDP regained the post of prime minister after two years of being part of a coalition government with the JSP. The third line is drawn at the time when the LDP lost power to the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) after its defeat in the 2009 general election. And the fourth line is drawn at the time when the LDP regained power again after the general election of 2012. Looking at Figure 14.1, the dynamics of public opinion, expressed through support for the LDP and approval for LDP cabinets, can be clearly divided into the two periods. In the first period, from 1960 to the mid-­1990s, LDP support is stable, averaging 32.5 percent (Standard Deviation [SD] is 4.7 percent), while approval for the LDP prime

80

Approval of prime minister Support for the LDP The 1993 Election => The LDP lost power

60 % of respondents

The 2009 Election The LDP => lost power