The Decision Intelligence Handbook: Practical Steps for Evidence-Based Decisions in a Complex World [1 ed.] 1098139658, 9781098139650

Table of contents :
Cover
Copyright
Table of Contents
Foreword
Preface
About This Book
Decision Intelligence in a Nutshell
LLMs, OMG
Who Is This Book For?
What You Will Learn
Assumptions This Book Makes
Contents of This Book
Conventions Used in This Book
Using Supplemental Materials
O’Reilly Online Learning
How to Contact Us
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1. Introduction
Do You Need Decision Intelligence?
What DI Does for You and Your Organization
From Data to Decisions
The Decision Complexity Ceiling
What Is DI?
Build Your First CDD, Right Now!
DI Is About Action-to-Outcome Decisions
DI Is About Human-in-the-Loop Decisions
Why Data-Driven Decision Makers Need DI
Where DI Comes From
What DI Is Not
The DI Maturity Model
The Shifting Meaning of “Decision Intelligence”
Who Is Doing DI Today?
The Nine DI Processes
Conclusion
Chapter 2. Decision Requirements
Decision Requirements (Phase A): Overview
Process A1: The Decision Objective Statement
Decision Objective Statement: Net-Zero Emissions Program Use Case
Interlude: Convening the Decision Team
Making Decisions at Multiple Organizational Levels
Balancing Information, Authority, and Responsibility
Process A2: Decision Framing
Decision Verification
Why Decision Framing Is Important
Formal Process Description: Process A2, Decision Framing
When the Decision Frame Is Wrong
Verifying and Framing: Net-Zero Emissions Program Use Case
Try It Yourself: Decision Requirements for a Telecom Use Case
Framing the Decision
Asking About Outcomes and Goals
Completing the Decision Framing Worksheet
Conclusion
Chapter 3. Decision Modeling: The Decision Design Process
The Decision Modeling Phase: Overview
Decision Elements
Decisions and Time
Process B1: Decision Design
Formal Process Description: Process B1: Decision Design
Divergent and Convergent Thinking
The CDD Elicitation Meeting
Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Outcomes and Objectives
Capturing Out-of-Context Decision Elements in a “Parking Lot”
Convergent Thinking: Refining (“Cleaning Up”) Outcomes and Objectives
Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Levers
Convergent Thinking: Refining Levers
Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Intermediates (Causal Chains)
Convergent Thinking: Refining Intermediates
Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Externals
Convergent Thinking: Refining Externals
Convergent Thinking: Refining Decision Elements
Refining and Expanding Your CDD
Levels of Modeling Detail
How Do You Know When to Stop Decision Modeling?
Decision Design Use Case: Governmental Net-Zero Project
Try It Yourself: Decision Design for a Telecom Use Case
Brainstorming Outcomes
Brainstorming Levers
Wiring Known Dependencies Together
Initial Refinement
Iterating On and Publishing the CDD
Conclusion
Chapter 4. Decision Modeling: The Decision Asset Investigation Process
Deciding to Go Digital
Introduction to Process B2: Decision Asset Investigation
From Simple to Sophisticated Assets
Documenting Decision Assets
Formal Process Description: Process B2: Decision Asset Investigation
Decision Asset Investigation: A Sweet Potato CDD Drives Data Gathering and Research
Data for Externals
The Puzzle Toy Use Case: The Decision Asset Conversation
Try It Yourself: Decision Asset Investigation for the Telecom Use Case
Conclusion
Chapter 5. Decision Reasoning: The Decision Simulation Process
Decision Reasoning: Phase Overview
Decision Simulation Process Overview
Why Simulate Your CDD?
Deciding Whether to Automate Your Decision Simulation
Developing the Simulation Iteratively
Formal Process Description: Decision Simulation
Creating a Decision Simulation
Simplifying the CDD
Lever Choices
Externals and Assumptions
Intermediates and Outcomes
Decision Simulation Fidelity
Running the Simulation “Backward”: Decision Models for Optimization
Technology Options
Simulation Report: Identifying Patterns and Feedback Loops
Net-Zero Emissions Use Case: Simulating the Decision Model
Visualizing Emergent Patterns in the Puzzle Toy Use Case Simulation
Try It Yourself: Decision Simulation for the Telecom Use Case
Deciding on a CDD to Simulate
Designing CDD Visual Elements
Coding the Dependencies
Testing Your Simulation
Conclusion
Chapter 6. Decision Reasoning: The Decision Assessment Process
Introduction to Process C2, Decision Assessment
Formal Process Description: Process C2, Decision Assessment
Decision Assessment Lenses
Baseline
Accuracy of the Model, and of Its Parts
Bias
Sensitivity
Uncertainty and Risk
Provenance
Fidelity
Consensus
Timing
Try It Yourself: Decision Assessment for the Telecom Use Case
Conclusion
Chapter 7. Decision Action
Decision Action Phase Overview
Process D1: Decision Monitoring
Formal Process Description: Process D1, Decision Monitoring
When Is a Monitored Value Wrong Enough to Matter?
What to Monitor
When Do You Need to Revisit Your Decision?
Decision Monitoring Records
Silos, Whack-a-Mole, and the Measurement Effect
Case Study: Network Upgrade: When the Decision Is Already Off the Rails
Try It Yourself: Decision Monitoring for the Unlimited Usage Plan Use Case
Conclusion
Chapter 8. Decision Review
The Decision Review Phase: Overview
Process E1: Decision Artifacts Retention
Legal, Regulatory, and Policy Issues
When Should Decision Artifacts Retention Begin and End?
Formal Process Description: Process E1, Decision Artifacts Retention
Try It Yourself: Decision Artifacts Retention for the Telecom Use Case
Process E2: Decision Retrospective
One-Time Versus Repeated Decisions
Measuring Decision Quality
Formal Process Description: Process E2, Decision Retrospective
Continuous Decision-Process Improvement
Conclusion
Appendix. Framework for How Data Informs Decisions
Index
About the Authors
Colophon