The Credibility Challenge: How Democracy Aid Influences Election Violence 9781501736551

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THE CREDIBILITY ­C HALLENGE

THE CREDIBILITY CHALLENGE How Democracy Aid Influences Election Violence Inken von Borzyskowski

CORNELL UNIVERSITY PRESS

ITHACA AND LONDON

Cornell University Press gratefully acknowledges receipt of a grant from Florida State University, which aided in the publication of this book. Copyright © 2019 by Cornell University All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permis­sion in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu. First published 2019 by Cornell University Press Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Borzyskowski, Inken von, author. Title: The credibility challenge : how democracy aid influences election violence / Inken von Borzyskowski. Description: Ithaca [New York] : Cornell University Press, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2018047445 (print) | LCCN 2018048574 (ebook) | ISBN 9781501736551 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501736568 (epub/mobi) | ISBN 9781501736544 | ISBN 9781501736544 (cloth: alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Elections—Developing countries. | Political violence—Developing countries. | Election monitoring—Developing countries. | Democratization—Developing countries. | Developing countries—Politics and government. Classification: LCC JF1001 (ebook) | LCC JF1001 .B675 2019 (print) | DDC 303.6—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018047445

For Hanna

Contents

List of Figures and Tables ix Acknowledgmentsxi Abbreviationsxiii Introduction: The Question of Democracy Aid and Election Violence 1. 

Credible Election Theory

1 31

2. Shaping the Electoral Environment: International

Support and Pre-Election Violence

71

3. The Dark Side: International Condemnation and

Post-Election Violence

100

4. The Upside: Technical Assistance and Reduced

Post-Election Violence Conclusion: Improving Democracy Aid for Credible and Peaceful Elections

124 149

Appendix to Chapter 1 165 183 Appendix to Chapter 3 Notes187 References205 Index221

Figures and Tables

Figures   I.1  Economic development and election violence 9   I.2 Election commission capacity and post-election violence17   I.3 Percent of elections with United Nations technical election assistance 19   I.4 Rates of election support across regions 20   I.5  Rates of electoral violence across regions 22   I.6  Election commission capacity across regions 24   1.1  Percent of elections with election violence 34   1.2  Election violence in Africa before and after election-day 37   1.3 International election support, credibility, and pre-election violence 53   1.4 International election support, credibility, and post-election violence 58   2.1  Distribution of campaign violence 72   3.1 Substantive effect of condemnation on post-election challenge 108   3.2 Timing of election, IO report, and result announcement111   3.3  The post-election game and cases examples 118   4.1 Effect of technical election assistance on election commission capacity, independence, clean voting, clean election index, and loser challenge 131   4.2 Change in NEC credibility conditional on technical election assistance 134 1B.1  The post-election game 167 1B.2  Equilibria and the loser’s strength 168 1B.3  Equilibria summary 169

ix

x       Figures and Tables

Tables   1.1 Which election violence drivers can be influenced by international election support   2.1 Effect of international election support on pre-election violence   2.2 Testing for selection of international election support into less violent elections   2.3 Effect of international election support on campaign violence, accounting for potential selection   3.1 Effect of observer condemnation on post-election violence   3.2  Similarity of Kenya and Sierra Leone’s 2007 elections   4.1 Effect of technical election assistance on post-election violence   4.2 Technical election assistance and post-election violence in Guyana   4.3 Technical election assistance and post-election violence in Bangladesh 1B.1  Formal notation in the game 1C.1  Variable descriptions 1C.2  Descriptive statistics 1C.3  Comparing election-related violence datasets 1C.4 Sample: Elections in 74 countries in Africa and Latin America, 1990–2012 3A.1 Effect of observer condemnation on post-election loser challenge 3A.2  Effect of loser challenge on post-election violence 3A.3 Effect of observer condemnation on post-election violence, accounting for potential endogeneity

43 74 82 86 104 113 127 136 144 168 171 174 175 181 183 184 185

Acknowledgments

Election quality has fascinated me for a long time. Elections in the former East Germany, where I was born, were not credible: the electoral field was tilted heavily toward the Socialist Unity Party (SED) and the “candidates” of the National Front, and voting was not secret, free, or truly voluntary. People were “encouraged” to turn out by getting time off from work and walking as a group to the polling station in “celebration.” Once there, the motto was “folding, not voting” (falten statt wählen). The expected procedure was to get a ballot, fold it, and drop it in the ballot box (unmarked ballots were a vote for the SED/National Front). Voting booths—if available—were rarely used, as that would signal potential opposition to the one-party regime, which could result in political and economic consequences for nonconformist voters and their families. My interest in credible elections, violence, and democracy promotion was rekindled at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. For reviving these interests, teaching me how to study them, and offering generous support, I am grateful to Lisa Martin, Andy Kydd, Jon Pevehouse, Scott Straus and to Susan Hyde at Berkeley. Each has helped me improve the project and imparted a drive for research. Other faculty have provided feedback and supported my work in graduate school and beyond, including Ed Friedman, Dave Weimer, Melanie Manion, Jonathan Renshon, Mark Copelovitch, and Nils Ringe. Friends and peers have also contributed to parts—and frequently revised parts—of the project, most of all Sanja Badanjak, Jess Clayton, and Mert Kartal, although many others weighed in as well. On the home front, I thank my father and grandparents for their encouragement since the early days of my studies. I thank my husband, Carlton Henson, for his unwavering support during the last thirteen years. The book has greatly benefited from a manuscript workshop during my postdoc year. For traveling to Berlin just for the workshop, I thank Irfan Nooruddin, Nikolay Marinov, Sarah Birch, Andrea Ruggeri, and Tess McEnery, who all provided tough questions and great suggestions to further shape the work. I thank Tanja Börzel and Thomas Risse for sponsoring the postdoc year and workshop through the German National Science Foundation (DFG) as well as Emanuel Adler, Ed Stoddard, Elin Hellquist, and Mathis Lohaus for making that year productive and enjoyable.

xi

xii       Acknowledgments

Colleagues at Florida State University have supported my research since my arrival. I am particularly grateful to Charles Barrilleaux, Sean Ehrlich, Mark Souva, Will Moore, Amanda Driscoll, Matt Pietryka, Quintin Beazer, and Holger Kern as well as my research assistants Rebecca Saylor, Zach Houser, and Richard Saunders. I owe thanks to my collaborators on other research projects—Felicity Vabulas, Patrick Kuhn, Michael Wahman, and Clara Portela—who provided insights and were patient on more than one occasion. For their support and comments on my work, I also thank Emily Beaulieu, Sarah Bush, Allison Carnegie, Jeff Colgan, David Cunningham, Hanne Fjelde, Tom Flores, Kristine Höglund, Anna Lührmann, Paulina Pospieszna, Meg Shannon, and Jaroslav Tir. The book benefited from the advice and suggestions from faculty and graduate students at a number of conferences, seminars, and workshops. I thank my editor at Cornell University Press, Roger Haydon, for his enthusiastic support, excellent suggestions, and guidance. The book was published with assistance from FSU’s Office of Research. In earlier stages, I was fortunate to receive support for this research through grants, fellowships, and prizes from several institutions, including from the Electoral Integrity Project at Harvard/ Sydney, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Florida State University; European University Institute; the International Studies Association; the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP); and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). Many practitioners in the election observation and election assistance community have greatly improved this book. Gabrielle Bardall, Eric Bjornlund, Oscar Bloh, Tom Carothers, David Carroll, Joshua Changwong, Jonas Claes, Glenn Cowan, Almami Cyllah, Staffan Darnolf, Aleida Ferreya, Jeff Fischer, Maarten Halff, David Jandura, Lisa Kammerud, Robin Ludwig, Manar Hassan, Hiroko Miyamura, Vasu Mohan, David Pottie, Bhojraj Pokharel, and Barry Weinberg have all been generous with their time and influenced my thinking on policy interventions and election violence. All remaining errors are my own. Last but not least, special “thanks” go to the Kenya National Police for allowing me to experience election violence firsthand. After Kenya’s 2017 repeat election, I was on Nairobi’s Moi Avenue near a group of loudly celebrating young citizens when they were confronted by the police. The police used physical measures and tear gas to disperse the crowd, and the tear gas quickly affected civilians around the scene. This event has further strengthened my motivation to understand what drives election violence and how it can be mitigated.

Abbreviations

AU CC CIS CW EC ECOWAS EU IFES IGO IO IRI NDI NEC NGO OAS OSCE SADC UN UNDP UNDPA UNEAD USAID USIP

African Union Carter Center Commonwealth of Independent States Commonwealth of Nations European Commission Economic Community of West African States European Union International Foundation for Electoral Systems Intergovernmental Organization International Organization International Republican Institute National Democratic Institute National Election Commission Non-governmental Organization Organization of American States Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Southern African Development Community United Nations United Nations Development Programme United Nations Department of Political Affairs United Nations Electoral Assistance Division United States Agency for International Development United States Institute of Peace

xiii

THE CREDIBILITY ­C HALLENGE

Introduction

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE

Election observation is often the glamorous public face of international ­election support. A notable politician serving as chief observer jets into a developing country amid great fanfare and gives highly publicized press statements based on reports by short- and long-term observers; European Union observer teams and their blue emblems roam the capital and parts of the countryside; or the chief observer of another international organization (IO) gravely holds forth at a well-attended press conference on the significance of the election. For many people (the general public and researchers alike), international election support means election observation, and its image is largely positive. Observers work to ensure fair elections, as The Economist has put it.1 Indeed, most studies on this topic indicate that election observation improves governance in host countries. External observers can detect and deter fraud, increase participation of opposition parties, encourage voter turnout, boost confidence in the announced result, and help raise the quality of current and future elections.2 Public opinion about observation is also positive. As a way of promoting democracy, two thirds of the American public support sending election observers to certify free and fair ­elections abroad.3 However, these commonly held perceptions of international election s­ upport are problematic: election observation is not always positive, and it is not the only form of international election support. First, election observation does not only lead to positive outcomes but can also have negative unintended consequences. When observers criticize election results and issue negative verdicts (i.e., ­condemnations), they inadvertently increase legitimacy and incentives for the 1

2    INTRODUCTION

electoral loser to challenge and protest the election result, which can turn violent. Negative observer verdicts were followed by outbreaks of violence in, for instance, Panama in 1989, in Cameroon and Mauritania in 1992, in Nigeria in 1999, in Ethiopia in 2005, in Kenya in 2007, in Cote d’Ivoire in 2010, and in Gabon in 2015. In each case, observer groups cast serious doubt on the election result and thereby reduced the credibility of the elections. This observer condemnation increased public support for the loser—more people were willing to go out on the streets—and thus the loser’s incentives to challenge the election result. Loser challenges often lead to violence when supporters of opposing camps clash in the streets or with security forces, resulting in fatalities and injuries. In some cases, such post-election violence assumed the dimensions of civil war, as in Kenya in 2007 and in Cote d’Ivoire in 2010, with more than a thousand casualties in each instance. And while the potential of observation to minimize fraud is important, its potential to exacerbate election violence is also important. Second, the overwhelming scholarly attention given to observation has rendered technical election assistance the neglected stepchild of international election aid. Although leading policy analysts on democracy support such as Thomas Carothers have noted that there are “two main types of international election support—technical aid for election administration and election monitoring,”4 research has almost exclusively focused on monitoring/observation. Technical election assistance is grossly understudied, especially compared to the wealth of studies on monitoring/observation and in contrast to the practical use of technical assistance over the last few decades. Such election assistance has been provided by the United Nations (UN) and other organizations in more than a hundred countries since 1990. It seeks to improve election processes by building the capacity and credibility of election administration, often focusing on the national election commission (or, more broadly, election management bodies)5 and related activities by other actors. Election assistance supports country-tailored reforms and capacity building for election management; this includes fundamental aspects of election organization such as logistics, poll worker training, civic and voter education, voter registration, advice on laws and registration methods, computer applications, and civil society programs.6 These basic requirements for successful elections often pose significant challenges in many developing countries. In contrast to observation and its media visibility, technical election assistance tends to have a low profile. Technical election assistance teams do not publicly judge elections or hold press conferences, but they can nonetheless help build public confidence in democratic institutions in fragile environments by improving election quality. This is because election assistance works indirectly, through domestic institutions. For example, post-conflict countries such as ­Liberia and ethnically divided societies such as Guyana are countries at risk of

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      3

further ­violence. However, elections in these countries have been relatively peaceful when technical election assistance was provided. In large part due to extensive UN assistance to Liberia’s 1997, 2005, and 2011 elections as well as smaller but continued UN assistance in 2017, all of Liberia’s four post-conflict elections were surprisingly peaceful. Similarly, technical support in Guyana’s 2006 elections helped overcome the habitual loser challenge after elections, which had previously resulted in violent protests and bloodshed. Despite being all but unknown in the scholarly community, technical election support is, in fact, a rare Cinderella story of international election support. Thus, international election support consists of more than just observation: technical election assistance can make positive contributions, but it is less visible in the media and has received little academic attention. Further, although election monitoring can have positive effects, it sometimes backfires: my research shows that a critical observer report7 on election results can embolden the loser to contest the election result—sometimes violently. Election violence affects about a quarter of national elections worldwide, with even higher rates in the developing world. Election violence is a type of political violence that is aimed at influencing an election’s process or outcome and occurs temporally close to an election. Electoral violence is more common before election-day (to influence turnout or vote choice), than after election-day (when it is used to challenge announced results and thus change the outcome). It is directed against people: candidates, voters, election officials, external supporters, and so on. While most analyses—including that contained in this book—focus on the physical use of force, election violence can also include intimidation, threats, verbal abuse, or property damage (to election facilities, party offices, ballots, and the like). Research to date, however, has largely overlooked both the important role played by technical assistance and the potential negative consequences of election observation. This book explores both of these factors: international technical assistance and election observation. Given decades of practice, this is a critical opportunity to evaluate what we think we already know about election observation and expand our understanding of international election support with an examination of technical assistance and capacity building. The book addresses this gap in knowledge by offering insights into the effect of two prominent support types and their mechanisms and effects across time and space. It provides systematic analyses based on original data to reveal broad patterns across different domestic contexts and international organizations, and it tracks the hypothesized causal links with illustrative cases. The international community has invested substantial resources in democracy aid and specifically election support in developing countries. Over the last

4    INTRODUCTION

three decades, about 70 percent of national elections in the developing world had international observation, and about 30 percent received technical e­ lection assistance.8 As early as 1948, the UN Declaration of Human Rights recognized “genuine and periodic elections” as critical for participation, and the UN ­General Assembly resolution on “enhancing the effectiveness of the principle of periodic and genuine elections” (Res. 43/157 in 1988) paved the way for major electoral missions by the UN on a regular basis.9 Simultaneous with this development, USAID began to fund election assistance, U.S.-based organizations such as the Carter Center, NDI, and IRI began to offer election observation, and the ­International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) was founded. These efforts ­accelerated after the Cold War. In particular, the European Union began funding election observation in 1993 and has become an active provider of election support worldwide since then, sending its own observer missions and channeling election assistance through the UNDP. Throughout the 1990s and well into the new millennium, many other groups joined in providing election support, particularly observation. According to official estimates, the amount of official development assistance on government and civil society rose in the years 1990–2015 from 4 to 18 billion dollars annually. Election assistance is one component of this larger budget; it rose to over US$700 million in 2008 and has since hovered around half a billion dollars annually.10 This international investment reflects a notion among practitioners and scholars that election support matters. This consensus, however, obscures how little we actually know about the effectiveness of election support. Policymakers and scholars have focused on improving electoral integrity and, for more than a decade, have focused more specifically on the problem of election violence, that is to say, political violence intended to influence the election process or outcome. Funders and implementers of election aid have issued guidelines on how to mitigate election violence, and researchers have undertaken (case) studies on domestic risk factors. Yet over-arching theories of the relationship between international election support and election violence as well as systematic, cross-national evidence are in short supply. As a result, our understanding of this relationship is still quite limited. As one prominent researcher recently put it, “The most basic issues about the impact of election assistance—what it accomplishes, where it succeeds, why it fails, and how it can be improved—remain inconclusive.”11 We need more evidence on what works. More specifically, several critical questions remain unanswered: When does election support matter: under what circumstances can such aid influence election violence, and at which points during the electoral cycle? How does election support matter: how can it shape the incentives of domestic actors to engage in violence? And does support help reduce violence, increase it, or leave it unchanged? How can unintended consequences be miti-

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      5

gated? Finally, since election support/aid is comprised of both observation and technical ­election assistance, which type of support is better, and when? This book addresses these questions by providing a theory and detailed cross-national evidence for explaining how international election assistance can influence election violence. I develop the Credible Election Theory (CET) about how democracy aid can influence election violence. The essential arguments of CET are that (1) credible elections are less likely to turn violent and that (2) international election support can make elections more or less credible and thus alter the incentives of domestic actors to engage in election violence. Regarding the first part of the argument, credible elections are less likely to turn violent. Democracy—and in particular peaceful power transitions—requires credible elections. Elections are (ideally) a substitute for violent succession struggles, but when elections are not credible, people tend to express their dissatisfaction with (real or perceived) illegitimate political processes, generating a potential for violence to ensue. Second, international election support can influence the credibility of elections, which in turn influences the peacefulness of elections. Before elections, external support—particularly observation—can make election manipulation more difficult and more costly and thus less violent. After elections, both types of external support can change the credibility of the announced result and thereby influence the loser’s decision of whether and how to challenge the election result. Condemnations by election observers cast doubt on the credibility of election results and can thus contribute to the loser challenging the results. Election challenges can turn violent when the loser initiates violence or when the winner violently represses the loser’s peaceful challenge (in court or on the streets). In contrast to observation, technical assistance usually takes more time to implement ahead of elections and is more subtle, but it can improve the credibility of elections, which lowers incentives to challenge and thus helps reduce post-election violence. It can also improve election institutions for dispute resolution and thus provide incentives for the loser to take election disputes (if any) to an institution instead of to the streets. Virtually all developing-country elections take place in an international context. In some situations, international actors are actively trying to reduce election violence. For instance, “reducing the potential for election-related violence” is one of three key objectives of United Nations election assistance, along with building capable institutions for election administration that have full confidence of the contesting parties and helping member states hold democratic elections.12 In many cases, though, even when international actors are not explicitly trying to affect election-related violence, they still have the potential to alter ­domestic outcomes in important ways. This book moves past the traditional focus on

6    INTRODUCTION

observers’ effect on fraud to focus on election violence and a broader set of election support types, including specifically technical election assistance. Technical assistance and monitoring have been implemented for decades. Yet their impact on election violence has remained an open question, with only a few studies. To what extent, in what ways, and under what conditions does such an effect exist?

The Policy-Research Gap Policy interest in this question has surged in recent years, yet our understanding of which strategies reduce election violence remains limited. Most importantly, we lack a good deductive theory about the influence of external election support that draws on insights from comparative politics research. Practitioners have long been interested in the effectiveness of democracy assistance. This interest has only grown after three decades of democracy aid, in the face of deeper uncertainties about the status of democracy around the world and at a time of further budget constraints in donor countries. Of course, organizations evaluate their own contributions through monitoring and evaluation programs or broader reviews. For example, the UN Development Programme concluded that it “has contributed to more professional electoral management, more inclusive processes and more credible electoral events than would have been the case without UNDP assistance.”13 While these self-evaluation efforts provide important insights, they often evaluate project implementation rather than effectiveness and can lean more toward success stories than rigorous empirical tests of effectiveness to enable evidence-based evaluation.14 Some policy-oriented researchers have noted that “international attempts at providing election assistance . . . need to demonstrate that . . . these programs can achieve their stated goals, such as by . . . strengthening the capacity of election management bodies. In a period of belt-tightening for aid budgets, the large-scale investment in programs of election assistance needs justifying.”15 Some democracy practitioners—such as Thomas Carothers—say it is “time to choose” between limiting democracy aid and continuing it on a stronger evidence base. As one example, he asks, “How can elections be designed and supported in ways that specifically help to reduce the chance of emergent sectarian conflicts?”16 Election support and conflict management have been important issues in foreign policy research for a long time, but the two strands have only become integrated research areas over the last decade. Several key organizations have issued notes, handbooks, and guidelines that outline the opportunities for and experiences of external actors in addressing electoral security. At the highest level, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has noted the

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      7

importance of election violence and potential international remedies.17 Further, USAID, the European Union, and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) have issued best practice documents.18 The U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) has recently published two studies about what works in preventing election violence.19 The European Commission, UNDP, and USIP have held yearly workshops to train policymakers in electoral security.20 NGOs, too, have developed substantial expertise. IFES, a Washington-based NGO, has pioneered this effort by developing election violence mitigation tools and integrating them in regular election assistance.21 Other NGOs, such as International IDEA and ECES, have followed this lead.22 This impetus is not generated solely by external actors. Regional organizations in Africa and elsewhere have noted the limitations of local remedies and have indicated interest in developing better international preventive and mediation techniques.23 Despite this heightened interest, policy evaluations of the effectiveness of democracy aid for election violence have been limited to case studies.24 While these are insightful and shed light on individual elections, it is unclear whether these examples are representative or generalizable. This is an inferential shortcoming of individual case studies, just as it is a limitation of some research not to account for international context and focus purely on domestic factors when examining the drivers of election violence. Most developing country elections are held in an international context, and it is worth considering the influence of this context on outcomes. Academia has not yet caught up with policy interest in the link between international election support and electoral violence. Since this link is still somewhat of a blind spot in the democracy promotion literature, current research can offer little guidance for policymakers seeking to reduce election violence.25 Further, most scholarship on election violence focuses primarily on domestic factors, paying little or no attention to international influences. The comparative politics literature locates the drivers of election violence at the domestic level by focusing predominantly on economics, demographics, and identity issues. This research also highlights how domestic political factors are linked to election violence, such as election rules and institutions, fraud, weak state capacity, and powerful incumbents. However, some of these lines of inquiry are limited in their causal leverage because largely time-invariant factors cannot explain over-time changes in election violence within a country. For example, electoral systems change rarely and economic development changes only slowly. Therefore, these factors are unlikely to systematically explain changes in the level of election violence from one election to the next. Thus it is also important to consider international influences on election violence. We lack a good deductive theory that integrates findings from comparative politics research while paying attention to the broader international context in

8    INTRODUCTION

which elections are held. I do not argue that it is either domestic or international factors that matter; oftentimes both play a role. However, the effect of international election support on election violence has received little scholarly attention. I build on insights from comparative politics research about common drivers of violence and the importance of election quality. I advance this research by pointing to the importance of international influences on election credibility and how that can help change violence on the ground. When assessing the effect of external support, I include many of the domestic factors noted in current scholarship as control variables in statistical analyses. This allows me to demonstrate that international election support has an additional effect on election violence, controlling for domestic context. The most prominent argument in the election violence literature revolves around economic development, and virtually all studies of election violence include a variable for development in the empirical analysis. In his book Wars, Guns, and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places, for example, Paul Collier argues that democracy increases violence in countries with per capita GDP below US$2,700.26 By implication, then, introducing or holding elections in countries that fall below this poverty threshold increases conflict. Yet the empirical record does not fully support this argument, at least with respect to election violence. Figure I.1 maps election violence—the (logged) number of election-related casualties (people killed or injured) on the Y axis—across levels of economic development on the X axis.27 Each marker represents a national election between 1990 and 2012 in Africa and Latin America. Larger markers represent a larger number of elections. The proposed development cutoff is marked with a vertical line, and the solid horizontal line represents the smoothed average trend (a locally weighted smoothing or lowess curve). The statistical trend line and visual inspection indicate that violence levels are indeed somewhat lower in richer countries and that elections stay peaceful at the (very) high end of per capita GDP in these regions. In other words, being rich makes it more likely for election casualties to be zero. However, this leaves substantial and interesting violence variation unexplained. Even in relatively richer countries (the right side of the graph), election-related casualties do occur and can be quite substantial. This group includes South Africa, Algeria, and Gabon as well as Venezuela and Colombia, all of which are above the US$2,700 GDP per capita threshold. Further, note that below the threshold, higher per capita GDP seems to be associated with more casualties. Even more interesting is the variation in election violence in poorer countries (the left side of figure I.1). In contrast to Collier’s implication, figure I.1 documents that holding elections in poor countries does not lead to violence. In fact, many countries regularly conduct elections peacefully despite being poor. These ­elections are the many overlapping markers at

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      9

Number of election-related casualties (logged)

8

6

natural log ($2,700) = 7.9 4

2

Trend 0 4

6

8 Per capita GDP (logged)

10

FIGURE I.1.  Economic development and election violence (Africa and Latin America 1990–2012, n=476 elections)

the zero line. This group of peaceful elections in poor places includes Benin and Burkina Faso (both with per capita GDP less than US$800), Niger (under US$400), Zambia and Ghana (under US$1,600), and Bolivia (under US$1,800) as well as El Salvador and Ecuador (both under US$2,500 before 2005). This demonstrates that election violence is not purely structural; it is caused by context. While structure is important, it is not the whole story. If violence is not purely structural but varies widely even within poor countries, this suggests that violence may often be employed as a strategic tool. And if election violence is strategic, it is subject to cost-benefit calculations, which can be influenced. Another prominent argument—at least for violence after voting—revolves around fraud. This line of inquiry is more promising in explaining violence variation within countries, as fraud can vary from one election to the next—unlike slow-moving structural factors like GDP. In their studies of post-election protest (which may or may not be violent), Susan Hyde and her coauthors have noted the importance of fraud as a mobilization mechanism.28 Africanists have also included fraud allegations in studies of post-election violence.29 While the focus on fraud is compelling, it misses two important points. First, fraud ­concerns are substantially more frequent than violence. Focusing again on Africa and Latin

10    INTRODUCTION

America between 1990 and 2012, there was evidence and significant concerns that an election would not be free and fair in 45 percent of elections.30 Yet only 13 percent of elections turned violent after election-day.31 Even if one were to look solely at claims of serious vote fraud made after the election,32 there is a 9-point discrepancy between elections that were fraudulent and those that turned violent. Specifically, 22 percent of elections were deemed seriously fraudulent, but only 13 percent turned violent after the vote in Africa and Latin America in the 1990–2012 period. This implies that a focus on fraud as a driver of election violence reduces the predictive power of this measure to essentially a coin flip. It also leads to over-prediction: using real or perceived fraud as the predictor of post-election violence would over-predict the actual rate of violence. Discussions of fraud can help us understand why post-vote violence happened (when it did) but it vastly over-predicts its occurrence and thus is not enough to explain this phenomenon. Moreover, fraud is not exogenous; it can itself be influenced. In this book, I argue that election quality can be influenced by international election support, which in turn has consequences for post-election violence. Further, it is often not necessarily fraud itself but “internationally certified fraud” that drives post-vote violence.33 In this book, I assess the effect of internationally certified fraud on post-vote violence, which is an important contribution for research and policy. Another alternative explanation for violence after voting—and one closer to the international perspective of this book—concerns the presence of observers. The body of work on international election observation has provided many insights. This research has documented observer effects on election fraud and quality,34 pre-election boycotts,35 and post-election protests,36 which may or may not involve violence. With regard to election violence, however, much remains unclear. Two studies show that observer presence at fraudulent elections can increase the number of conflict events.37 Sometimes it remains unclear whether conflict events are violent and election-related (versus ongoing conflict that happens to occur during an election period).38 More importantly, while these studies point to the theoretical importance of observer criticism, neither study ­empirically examines observer assessments or criticism.39 Observer ­presence at manipulated elections is not the same as observer condemnation. This is highlighted by the fact that less than half of flawed, observed elections are condemned.40 Thus, observer presence at flawed elections is not a proxy for observer condemnation. This leaves open the important question of whether contestation arose in response to observer criticism, to observer presence, or to the fraud itself. This book differs from most research on post-vote conflict in its explicit focus on observer statements rather than their mere presence. I assess whether negative verdicts—issuing critical statements about election quality—influence election

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      11

violence. To accomplish this, chapters 3 and 4 disentangle the effect of observer condemnation from observer presence and election fraud. In the absence of substantial theoretical and empirical work on the broader aid-election violence link, we can only guess which international strategies influence election violence. Economic development explains some of the variation between poorer and richer countries (richer countries are more likely to have peaceful elections), but much variation in election violence remains unexplained both among richer countries and among poorer countries. In terms of post-election violence, fraud or observer presence are part of the picture but similarly leave much violence variation unexplained, and prior studies do not address the key issue—arguably of great interest to the policy community—whether it is fraud, observer presence, or observer verdicts that can influence post-election violence. Indeed, some observer groups seem to be concerned about the potential condemnation-violence link. At least in one instance of election monitoring (Kenya 2007), an organization has noted a link between its negative observer statement and post-election violence.41 Judith Kelley mentions three other elections—Zimbabwe 2000, Kenya 1992, and Nigeria 1999—in which observer groups may have been less critical of flawed elections because they were worried that observer criticism could lead to violence. She argues that observers may have a stability bias.42 While all three of these elections were ultimately criticized by at least one observer group43 the fact that some observers are concerned about this issue is noteworthy. My book provides compelling evidence that such a worry is justified. I show that observer condemnations (rather than their mere presence) can increase post-election violence. Note that if observers’ stability bias were pervasive (meaning observers are less likely to condemn when they anticipate post-vote violence), it would make it more difficult to find the effect that I find in chapter 3, which is that observer condemnation is associated with an increase in post-election violence. Moreover, “little is known” about the effect of technical election assistance on election violence and the impact of reforms on election quality and election security,44 even though technical assistance has been implemented for over three decades. We have information on what technical election assistance is and how it has been implemented in particular elections,45 but studies of its effects are largely limited to case studies and have found mixed results.46 For example, Lührmann finds that UN election assistance improved election quality in Nigeria 2011 and Libya 2012 but not in Sudan 2010 because of differences in domestic context (government interference).47 In a quantitative cross-national study of electoral conflict, Birch and Muchlinski find that UNDP efforts in capacity building and peace messaging lead to one election-related attack less per

12    INTRODUCTION

e­ lection  cycle.48 They point out that this research field is still in its infancy and that we need more research to consider the stage of the electoral cycle as well as the conditions under which and the causal mechanisms by which interventions can influence election violence.49 Similarly, Pippa Norris asserts that assistance to election commissions “deserves more scrutiny.”50 This is particularly important for policy in post-conflict countries, many of which have seen long-term investment through peacekeeping. Violent elections risk tearing the fragile peace in these environments and forfeiting the investment in prior peacekeeping efforts. Thus, knowing whether, how, and under which conditions technical assistance helps make elections more peaceful is an important issue for research and policy. To fill the policy-research gap, we need better theories and better data. In this book, I develop the Credible Election Theory to explain the interactions between international and domestic politics in the realm of election quality. I explain how international engagement in elections can alter the incentives of domestic actors to resort to violence before and after elections. Before elections, external actors can help reduce manipulation and improve election management, so that concerns about unfair competition are lower and can be addressed through institutions rather than outside of ­institutions (that is, through ­violence). ­Similarly, after the vote has taken place, I propose a rationale for how external actors can change the incentives of electoral losers about whether and how to challenge results by boosting the credibility of the outcome or, alternatively, strengthening the loser’s position vis-à-vis the winner. Any peaceful implementation of election results requires the consent of the loser, and the actions of international organizations (IOs) can be critical at that juncture. This book contributes to the debate of how outsiders can make positive political change in fragile democracies.51 In addition to the theoretical argument and empirical testing, this book advances our understanding of international election support by addressing the gaps: considering the stage of the electoral cycle and the conditions under which and the mechanisms by which interventions can influence election violence. With regard to empirical value for future research, I contribute to scholarship by providing one of the first global datasets specifically on election violence. The original dataset was collected for this project and improves on existing data on several fronts. This new dataset provides information on election-related violence, its intensity and timing. It is based on Keesing’s Record of World Events, which integrates a wide range of domestic and international news sources and NGO reports. In terms of spatial coverage, it goes beyond many current efforts—which often focus mainly on Africa—by providing data on countries on a global scale. This allows contextualizing violence and comparing across regions and countries to get a sense for the generalizability of the findings. I leverage these data in this

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      13

introduction and chapter 1 to provide context, guide research design, and then focus the quantitative analyses on two regions in the developing world, which are Africa as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. In terms of temporal coverage, the original data provide systematic information on election violence before, during, and after polling. Several other datasets offer only aggregate violence indicators for the entire election cycle. However, since the logic of violence differs before vs. after elections, it is important to distinguish between the two empirically. The data also provide details on the extent of violence rather than imposing (arbitrary) thresholds. This allows measuring how many people were killed or injured by election-related violence. The casualty count before (campaigning and election-day) and after elections is a richer measure of violence than binary variables (violent or not violent) and arbitrary cutoffs. For example, coding violence=1 when casualties exceed twenty people could mask much variation: it is a qualitative difference whether violence resulted in two dozen casualties or more than a thousand casualties. As a result, these new original data on casualty counts before and after elections pave the way for further theories and analyses of this important political phenomenon.

Argument: Aid, Credibility, and Violence This book seeks to fill an important gap in scholarship and ultimately assist policymakers by examining the relationship between international election support and election violence, providing some of the first quantitative data and empirical results pertaining to this issue. I develop and test the Credible Election Theory. As noted above, CET postulates that credible elections are less likely to turn violent and that international support can make elections more or less credible and thus alter the incentives of domestic actors to engage in election violence. In the next few pages, I outline this theory and then discuss it in detail in chapter 1. What are credible elections? I conceptualize elections as credible when they are competently managed and take place on a level playing field. Credible elections are (perceived as) free of technical glitches and political interference; they are administered smoothly and are not subject to undue political influence. These terms deserve some discussion. Of course, all elections are political, but political interference denotes actions that tilt the electoral playing field, often long before election-day itself. Such actions include restrictions on who can run for office, who is on the voter register (and who is not), limits on expression and association, rules covering campaign spending, and media bias, all of which can hamper fair competition among candidates and parties. Credible elections make it more likely that results accurately reflect public support for opposing factions.

14    INTRODUCTION

When candidates and parties are more likely to be held accountable for election manipulation, interference becomes more costly and thus less attractive as a strategy. While keeping politicians accountable for their actions is important, mechanisms for this purpose vary widely and tend to be weaker in low-institutionalized contexts like developing countries. When politicians are more constrained, they are less free to use illicit tools of competition. A level playing field is necessary but not sufficient to make elections credible. Elections free of political interference may still lack credibility if the election commission is unable to manage the process, for example with an outdated voter registry, unclear candidate registration procedures, insufficient ballots in polling stations, lost ballot boxes, or opaque vote-counting practices; few people would believe the announced result of such a process. In addition to a level playing field, competent election management is important for election credibility. National election commissions are key institutional actors that are responsible for election management, that is, holding elections free of procedural and physical barriers. They are involved in all steps of the electoral cycle, not just on election-day. Election commissions—and in particular their capacity to hold elections under often-difficult conditions in developing countries—are important for election credibility. Technical errors in election administration, such as insufficient ballots, voter registry issues, or vote tabulation problems, can erode public trust and confidence in the announced result. And while actual and perceived election quality are strongly related,52 perception often matters more than objective measures. Credibility is fundamentally about beliefs by the public and opposing political elites. What matters is often less an objective measure of accountability and capacity and more the public perceptions of capacity and accountability. This is perhaps most visible in election management, where technical shortcomings can be interpreted as unintended errors or deliberate manipulation. Such distinctions—important as they are conceptually—are in practice often difficult to judge by people outside the election commission and easy to exploit by politicians who have incentives to raise doubt about election quality. Thus commission competence, in the form of resources, transparency, efficiency, and fairness, is key for election management. To illustrate some of these dynamics, chapter 4 uses measures of both (objective) commission capacity and (subjective) public trust in the commission. Yet competent election management alone does not make elections credible, since technically clean elections can still be accompanied by political interference, such as vote buying, media bias, or unlawful detention or intimidation. Both aspects—capable commissions and a level playing field—are important components of election credibility. If an e­ lection was relatively free of technical

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      15

errors and undue political interference, it is more likely to reflect the will of the people and thus be credible in the eyes of the public and contestants. This conceptualization of credible elections is similar to some terms used in previous work53 but departs from the idea of election integrity, which has gained prominence in the last few years. According to Pippa Norris, election integrity is “an all-encompassing” notion of whether elections meet a long list of international standards of election quality. This list includes aspects of a level playing field (presence or absence of vote buying, candidate restrictions, media bias, campaign spending) and aspects of capable election management (vote counting) but also aspects of violence (coercion, intimidation, harassment).54 By promoting this term, Norris has raised the importance of election quality in popular and academic attention, has unified some previously scattered research strands, and has generated a fruitful research agenda.55 The notion of election integrity has started to replace the contested but commonly used term of “free and fair” elections.56 However, the umbrella term of integrity also has some drawbacks. For the purpose of this book—examining the links connecting external support, election credibility, and election violence—it is important to distinguish between credibility and violence. Subsuming both in a single term (like integrity) would be tautological for the purpose of this book and render it analytically impossible to examine how one influences the other. I argue that the election support provided by international organizations can influence election credibility and thus election violence.57 Technical assistance can improve election management (making election commissions more capable), and election observation can improve the accountability of candidates/ parties for manipulation (making the playing field more level).58 Both contribute to election credibility and influence election violence. International observation can act as an external accountability mechanism, while technical assistance can increase election quality by boosting election administration, so that the process and announced result are more credible. The effect of international election aid on violence depends on the electoral stage (before or after election-day) and the type of international support (technical assistance or observation). External support usually helps reduce violence, but under certain circumstances it can contribute to unrest and instability.

IOs and Pre-Election Violence Before elections, violence is often used to influence vote choice and turnout. In the run-up to election-day, international election support can alter the political environment in which elections are being held by reducing manipulation. In p ­ articular, external support can increase accountability and capacity, thus ­making the whole process more credible and less susceptible to violence.

16    INTRODUCTION

Election observation can act as a constraint on potential perpetrators of violence and fraud in the pre-election period by increasing the risk that such manipulation will be exposed.59 Using violence is essentially a cost-benefit calculation; in environments where accountability is low, the cost of perpetrating violence can be negligible or null. Observer groups can act as an external accountability mechanism by making it more likely that violence and its perpetrators are detected and punished. Manipulation is more likely to be detected and reported upon with observation than without observation. In the run-up to elections, credible observer groups send pre-assessment missions and issue statements about the possibility of a fair election. These statements detail institutional shortcomings and malpractice by contestants, including violent and nonviolent manipulation (for instance, attacks, forced displacement, misuse of state resources, failure to update the voter register). The anticipated public exposure of manipulation generates incentives for domestic actors to limit manipulation or at least to adopt less overt strategies. The second major type of international election support, technical election assistance, can increase the capacity of the national election commission to run a smooth and clean election, remove potential conflict triggers, and prevent violence from escalating. Technical assistance can facilitate coordination between the election commission, police, parties, and civil society. It often provides a platform for stakeholders to come together in regular meetings prior to the election. These meetings can be used to help monitor local tensions and mediate them before they escalate into larger violence. Technical assistance can also directly remove some triggers of violence, for instance by changing procedures so that opposing parties’ candidates register on different days and thus do not physically meet at the election office when tensions are high. Overall, election support can increase election credibility, help calm tensions, and lower election violence in the run-up to elections.

IOs and Post-Election Violence In the wake of elections, violence often erupts if electoral losers challenge election results that they deem not credible. At this point, IO support can have divergent effects on losers’ incentives to reject the results: technical assistance can increase election credibility, thus lowering incentives to challenge results, and—if results are challenged—encourage peaceful protest in court rather than in the streets, thus reducing violence. In contrast, observer verdicts about election credibility can contribute to violence. Long before elections are held, technical assistance often focuses on r­ aising institutional capacity and credibility to better manage elections. Besides

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      17

Number of election-related casualties (logged)

i­nstitutional reforms, election assistance also encourages contestants to stay calm; it aims to socialize citizens and parties to acknowledge that losing is just part of the democratic game, one that they may win in future competitions. Taken together, these efforts increase citizens’ knowledge of and respect for the national election commission as well as for the result that it announces. This in turn should reduce domestic agents’ incentives to challenge the results or challenge peacefully, thereby reducing post-election violence. For preliminary evidence that the capacity of the national election commission (NEC) plays a role in post-election violence, consider figure I.2. This shows post-election casualties—the (logged) number of people killed or injured in post-vote violence—across levels of NEC capacity. On the x-axis, election commission capacity ranges from 0 (no capacity; glaring deficits in staff, funding, or other resources) to 4 (high capacity; adequate staff and other resources needed to administer a well-run election).60 Again, markers represent national elections, with larger markers representing proportionately more elections. The solid horizontal line is the average linear trend. Figure I.2 documents two facts. First, the intensity of election violence drops sharply with more capable election commissions. That is, the most ­violent

8

6

4

2

Trend 0 0

1

2 3 Election commission capacity

4

FIGURE I.2.  Election commission capacity and post-election violence (Africa and Latin America 1990–2012, n=476 elections)

18    INTRODUCTION

e­lection (highest point on the y-axis) involves fewer and fewer casualties as ­election commissions go from low to moderate to high capacity. At high NEC capacity the most violent election resulted in forty-five post-election casualties.61 In contrast, at low NEC capacity a highly violent election resulted in about a thousand post-election casualties, plunging the country into civil war.62 Second, the number of peaceful elections increases with election commission capacity. When elections took place in countries with high-capacity NECs, only 6 percent of elections turned violent whereas 18 percent of elections turned violent at low NEC capacity. As the capacity of election commissions increases, post-election periods tend to be more peaceful and—if elections do turn violent—they tend to result in fewer casualties. This provides some preliminary evidence for the argument that election commissions’ capacity—and thus the credibility of the result they announce—play an important role in post-election violence. Unlike technical assistance (which builds institutional capacity and credibility), observation provides an independent validation of the election result. When observers cast doubt on the credibility of the result by issuing a negative report, they may unintentionally encourage losers to challenge the outcome. International condemnations can strengthen the loser’s incentives to challenge by increasing the number of people who are willing to support, mobilize, and potentially fight for the loser. Negative reports strengthen the loser’s relative power by serving as focal points for mobilization and by indicating that the loser has more popular support than the official (potentially biased) vote shares suggest. When losers are more likely to win a potential post-election contest, they are also more likely to challenge the result, which can lead to violence. Because a negative IO report increases losers’ incentives to challenge the result, it can have the unintended consequence of contributing to violence. Election challenges can turn violent when the loser initiates violence or when the winner violently represses the loser’s peaceful challenge.

Empirical Strategy To test the argument and its observable implications empirically, this book uses both quantitative and qualitative methods. For the quantitative analyses, this book focuses on two world regions: Africa and Latin America.63 The statistical analyses include more than 470 national elections in seventy countries in these two regions from 1990 to 2012. The analysis begins in 1990 as this marks the end of the Cold War and the effective beginning of international election support. While election support existed before 1990, it used to be sporadic and has expanded greatly since then. Further, the end of the Cold War marks a change

FIGURE I.3.  Percent of elections with United Nations technical election a ­ ssistance (worldwide 1990–2012, n=1,169 elections)

60−100%

40−59%

20−39%

1−19%

0%

UN Technical Election Assistance

20    INTRODUCTION

Percent of elections with election assistance

in both underlying conditions and international democracy promotion, which would make it difficult to infer which of these two (conditions or promotion) changed violence in a pre- vs. post-1990 comparison. The analysis ends in 2012 because information on international election observation (Nelda dataset) is only available until 2012. Testing the argument in Latin America and Africa is a significant advance over most existing work on election violence, which tends to focus on individual elections, individual countries, or—if cross-national— overwhelmingly on Africa.64 Africa and Latin America are chosen because these two regions have been the focus of international election support and have experienced substantial election violence.65 Selecting regions with sufficient variation on these key variables is important for identifying which factors (election support, country-level characteristics, and so on) are associated with changes in violence. First, variation in the independent variables of interest (election support types) is important. Technical election assistance has been prevalent in Africa and Latin America but less so in other regions. Figure I.3 shows the percentage of national ­elections that received UN technical election assistance; darker shades indicate that a

64

63

60 50

49

39

40

30 24

20

16

4

0

0 Latin America & the Caribbean

Africa

Observation

Europe & North America

Asia

Oceania

Technical assistance

FIGURE I.4.  Rates of election support across regions (worldwide 1990–2012, n=1,107 elections)

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      21

higher proportion of a country’s elections were supported.66 Africa stands out as the primary focus region of UN activity: about 39 percent of African elections have received UN technical election assistance for their national elections between 1990 and 2012. Africa has wide variation in election assistance across countries. Some countries have received UN technical assistance before most or all of their national elections (Somalia, Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique), others less often (South Africa, Benin, Ghana), and some never (Namibia). Beyond Africa, Latin American countries frequently receive technical election assistance. UN technical election assistance has accompanied about 80 percent of elections in Guyana and Haiti; about 40 percent of elections in Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Honduras; and no elections in Cuba, Chile, and Surinam. Technical election assistance is more common in Africa and Latin America than other regions. This is shown in figure I.4.67 In terms of regional aggregates, almost 40 percent of African elections and a quarter of Latin American elections have received such assistance. In the other regions, rates of technical election assistance are significantly lower, at 16, 4, and 0 percent respectively. Technical election assistance is sporadic in Asia and rare in Europe, North America, and Oceania. For the purpose of studying election aid and particularly technical assistance, that means that issues of selection and non-random treatment loom even larger in Asia, posing greater challenges to inference about effects. Further, in terms of case studies exploiting within-country variation, countries that r­ egularly have election violence but no election support (such as India) make it difficult to investigate the effect of election aid on election violence. The relative prevalence of election observation across regions follows similar trends: it is more common in Latin America and Africa than other regions. About two thirds of elections in Latin America and Africa have been monitored by reputable observer groups.68 This contrasts with less than half in Europe and Asia and only a third in Oceania: election observation is less common in these regions than in Latin America and Africa. Overall, both observation and technical election assistance are most common in Africa and Latin America. Second, Africa and Latin America have high rates of election violence in their region as well as wide variation across and within countries. Figure I.5 shows that these two regions have among the highest rates of election violence in the world. For the 1990–2012 time period, electoral violence before or after election-day accompanied around 30 percent of elections in Africa and Latin America and Asia. In contrast, in Oceania only about 19 percent of elections were accompanied by electoral violence and 10 percent of elections in Europe and North America, which provides less leverage for distinguishing the relative impact of a range of potential influences.

22    INTRODUCTION

Africa Asia Latin America & the Caribbean Oceania

Europe & North America 0

Before or after election-day

10 20 30 Percent of elections with election violence Before election-day

After election-day

FIGURE I.5.  Rates of electoral violence across regions (worldwide 1990–2012, n=1,169 elections)

Additionally, Africa and Latin America are chosen because they are roughly comparable in levels of democracy. While both regions have some staunch autocracies (Cuba, Zimbabwe, Uganda) and hybrid regimes (Venezuela, Mozambique), they also have a number of democracies (Brazil, Bolivia, Benin, Botswana). This stands in contrast to other regions like Asia and the Middle East, which have quite a number of closed autocracies (North Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Oman) and where the move toward democratization has been less consistent in the region. Therefore empirical chapters (2, 3, 4) focus on two regions that have been the focus of international election support: a higher share of elections in Africa and Latin America received both observation and technical election assistance than other regions (see figure I.4). Focusing on regions with sufficient variation in international election support allows for a better assessment of whether changes in support are associated with changes in election violence. In contrast, when election support is rarer—such as technical election assistance in Asia—issues of non-random treatment loom larger, which generates a higher risk that one or two cases are driving findings. To mitigate these risks, this book focuses on Africa and Latin America, and employs statistical models addressing non-random treatment alongside other estimations. Looking at Africa and Latin America of course does not mean that elections in these two regions are exactly the same. There are differences in election ­contexts and dynamics, which re-surface in the empirical analyses and findings.

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      23

One important difference between the regions is that countries in Latin America democratized earlier and have had more time to develop democratic institutions, such as national election commissions. In Latin America, transitions to democracy began in what Huntington calls the second and third waves of democratization.69 Even before the start of the third wave with Portugal’s revolution in 1974, several countries in Latin America transitioned to multiparty elections. Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Uruguay, and Venezuela became and remained fairly democratic, although some have experienced reversions in recent years.70 In contrast to the democratic transitions in Latin America beginning long before and during the 1980s, African democratization (and re-democratization after short-lived post-colonial openings) largely set in after 1990. With the exception of early transitions such as in Botswana and Mauritius, most African countries (re-)introduced multiparty elections and transitioned from one-party or military regimes to more competitive electoral regimes after the end of the Cold War.71 A few countries in North Africa—notably Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya—experienced regime changes even later, during the Arab Spring in the 2010s, leading to debates over a potential fourth wave of democratization.72 In addition to the timing of democratization, regional support for democracy and elections also emerged first in Latin America and then in Africa. These developments are reflected in the respective regional organizations: the Organization of American States (OAS) and the African Union (AU). While both regional organizations had internal struggles over the relative importance of sovereignty/ non-interference and democracy/elections, democratic principles won out earlier in the OAS than in the AU. While the OAS adopted a democracy clause first in its charter of 1948 and reinforced it in 1997 and 2001, the AU only established its charter on democracy in 2001.73 Similarly, the OAS engaged in some early forms of election observation first in the 1960s and then more extensively and professionally after the 1980s, while the African Union began only in 1989.74 The differential timing of democratization and regional democracy support—starting earlier in Latin America than Africa—has had implications for institutional development. On average, Latin American countries tend to be somewhat more democratic and more developed than African countries, particularly when it comes to national election commissions. Figure I.6 shows the distribution of election commission capacity across regions, with higher values indicating more capable institutions.75 The grey boxes encompass the 25th to 75th percentile of values, and hollow circles mark outliers.76 Black diamonds indicate median capacity. The median capacity of national election commissions clearly varies across regions: from serious deficiencies (coded 2) in Africa, to partial deficiencies (coded 3) in Latin America and Asia, to adequate resources (coded 4) in Oceania, North America, and Europe.

24    INTRODUCTION

Latin American countries tend to have more capable election commissions than African countries, giving rise to a ceiling effect. When election support is deployed, the maximum impact it can have is likely smaller in Latin America than Africa because election commissions are already more developed, elections more credible, and election violence less frequent. In contrast, where election commissions have lower capacity levels (Africa), election support can induce larger changes in election credibility and electoral violence. Thus, the effects of election aid on election violence should be stronger in Africa than Latin America. This is indeed what empirical analyses in subsequent chapters show. Rather than cutting out the region with smaller effects and focusing only on stronger and consistently statistically significant results, though, Latin America is included precisely to test and illustrate some of the scope conditions of the argument and to get a better idea about the type of countries in which election support is impactful. This gives us a better sense of the circumstances under which arguments holds. Analyses on both regions also allow us to put in context much of the previous work on election violence, which has largely focused on Africa. As with research on any phenomenon, it is important to not just examine the cases where the it happens but also where it does not happen.

Election commission capacity

4

3

2

1

0 Africa

Asia

Latin America & the Caribbean

Europe & North America

Oceania

FIGURE I.6.  Election commission capacity across regions (worldwide 1990–2012, n=1,165 elections)

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      25

In addition to the quantitative evidence, I provide qualitative case material from a number of elections. These are intended to illustrate the argument and deepen the analyses and are thus mostly chosen as representative cases. The qualitative case material, too, is drawn from Africa and Latin America. However, there are certainly elections outside these two focus regions in which my argument also applies. To show that the argument has traction in other parts of the world as well, the empirical chapters also note cases from other regions, such as Asia and the former Soviet Union. For example, chapter 3 mentions Georgia as a case of observer criticism and reduced election credibility, and chapter 4 draws on Bangladesh—whose election commission also had capacity issues and where the voter register had been a conflict point—to illustrate the role of technical assistance for election commission capacity and reduced loser challenges beyond Latin America and Africa.

Is Election Violence Undesirable? Before previewing the book chapters, it is worthwhile to step back for a moment and elaborate on the hitherto implicit assumption that election violence is undesirable. While this might seem obvious to many, some may argue that there are cases where post-vote violence has led incumbents to stand down, resulting in leadership change. Some of the color revolutions in Eastern Europe come to mind, such as the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan. In Kyrgyzstan’s 2005 parliamentary election, the candidates affiliated with the autocratic incumbent, Askar Akayev, did unsurprisingly well, but international election observers criticized the election. The day after the election, observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) issued a preliminary statement saying that the election “fell short of . . . standards for democratic elections in a number of important areas” and that it “was undermined throughout the country by widespread vote buying, deregistration of candidates, interference with independent media, and a low level of confidence in electoral and judicial institutions on the part of candidates and voters.”77 Condemnation by reputable election observers prompted mass protests, which soon clashed with riot police. In the end, three people were killed and hundreds injured. However, in the heat of unrest, Akayev fled to Russia for exile and resigned. The condemned elections were nullified and new elections were held four months later, giving rise to new leadership. So isn’t election violence worth the cost? I contend that it is not, for three reasons: rare positive outcomes, democratic theory, and detrimental consequences. First, for every “good” post-election instance of violence like Kyrgyzstan, there are many other examples where post-vote violence did not lead to l­eadership

26    INTRODUCTION

change or, perhaps more importantly, democratization. It remains an open empirical question whether post-election violence on average leads to positive, negative, or no political changes. To my knowledge, the link between post-vote violence and democratization has not been put to systematic empirical tests. If post-vote violence were associated with democratization, proponents of the argument would still have to weigh positive outcomes against the scale of casualties. Further, pre-election violence is more common than post-election violence, and—from a review of cases—seems even less linked to leadership change or democratization. Second, basic democratic theory precludes election violence. The fundamental premise of the theoretical concept of “democracy” is that it provides a nonviolent, peaceful solution to succession struggles. Peaceful elections are a cornerstone of democracy. In Robert Dahl’s classic definition of polyarchy, it is a key requirement that “elected officials are chosen in frequent and fairly conducted elections in which coercion is comparatively uncommon.”78 While the importance of elections relative to other institutions and freedoms has been debated,79 elections are a necessary component of democracy. As Michael Bratton put it, “while you can have elections without democracy, you cannot have democracy without elections.”80 Further, few people would disagree with Dahl’s argument that peaceful transitions of power are a minimal requirement of democracy as well as a key advantage over other systems of government. This is not just high political theory but a practical reality for citizens’ perception of governance. As one government official remarked about Afghanistan’s 2014 relatively peaceful election: “Whenever there has been a new king or president [in our past], it has been accompanied by death and violence. For the first time, we are experiencing democracy.”81 While elections are not a panacea, peaceful and credible elections are minimum requirements of democracy. Third, violent elections have detrimental consequences for democracy, development, and conflict. In terms of democracy, election violence can have negative effects on democratic attitudes and behavior, such as voter turnout and candidate participation. When elections trigger conflict rather than serving as a peaceful means of selecting leaders, citizens may justifiably shift to prefer stability over political rights. Public support for democracy decreases when elections become associated with violence,82 such as harassment, intimidation, unrest, and destruction. Specifically, fear of campaign violence is associated with reduced support for multiple parties, competitive elections, satisfaction with democracy, and a small increase in support for returning to the previous autocratic form of government.83 Further, election violence may also lower the legitimacy of the resulting government because it came to power in a flawed process that may not have reflected the will of voters. Case studies suggest that election v­ iolence

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      27

can also generate frustration with politicians and the police because they failed to protect citizens from violence,84 or worse, deliberately allowed violence to unfold.85 Citizens’ frustration with politics can linger for years after violence occurs and shape expectations about what elections mean. As one Zimbabwean citizen put it: “It will never be different with the same spirit of killing. I know that when these coming elections are coming, I know many people are going to die.”86 Overall, then, election violence may give electoral competition and democracy more broadly a bad name, making alternative forms of governance relatively more attractive. Apart from impairing democratic attitudes, election violence can also change behavior and in particular turnout. Most research indicates that campaign violence reduces turnout,87 although in some elections it also seems to have been used to forcefully mobilize voters and increase the vote of the violence-perpetrating parties.88 Usually, fearing campaign violence lowers turnout because it reduces the ability and willingness of citizens to cast their votes.89 That is, turnout is lower when election violence increases the costs of voting. Voting is always costly, requiring informational and physical effort, and as costs increase and benefits remain constant, the rational voter should be less likely to vote.90 These costs are substantially higher if the act of voting risks one’s physical safety. Targets of campaign violence may “choose” to abstain on election-day due to earlier intimidation, often abandoning their right to vote not just in the current but also in future elections.91 For example, Nigerians’ odds of voting decreased by 52 percent if they or someone they knew was threatened with violence for a certain vote choice.92 There are more extreme cases. In Sri Lanka, only 1 percent of voters voted in the Tamil-dominated district of Jaffna, “partly due to intimidation and pressures” from the Tamil Tigers/LTTE.93 Finally, citizens may be less willing or interested in voting when their vote choice has been restricted. Violence in the run-up to elections can also cause candidates to withdraw or not register in the first place, which limits candidates’ political rights as well as voters’ choice. For example, in the Ethiopian elections of 1992, 2000, and 2001, the opposition withdrew its participation due to intimidation and harassment by the ruling party.94 Similarly, in Zimbabwe’s 2008 presidential election, the opposition candidate withdrew when the ruling party and associated security forces systematically targeted and killed opposition supporters after the first round. Overall, about a hundred opposition activists were killed and thousands more were tortured and raped. This violence was effective: the main challenger (Tsvangirai) withdrew, resulting in an unopposed victory for President Robert Mugabe.95 Election violence can also impair citizens’ ability to turn out on election-day by interfering with voter registration, physical access to polling stations, and physical displacement.96 For instance, in Kenya thousands

28    INTRODUCTION

of people left Mombasa before the 1997 and 2007 elections because of ethnic cleansing in the campaigning period.97 In addition to undermining democracy, violent elections can also dent economic development, and the human cost can be staggering. While they were extreme cases, post-vote violence after three African elections led to about two thousand people killed, hundreds injured, and 250,000 people displaced (Kenya 2007, Cote d’Ivoire 2010, and Nigeria 2011). Indirect human costs arise when periods of election violence limit individuals’ access to medicine and health facilities, resulting in treatment interruption.98 Human costs have implications for human capital and labor force. Property damage to houses and shops deprives citizens of their livelihoods, often with no or little government compensation. Even agriculture and tourism, in some countries the main sources of national income, can take a significant hit.99 Similar to civil wars, high levels of election violence can also result in “development in reverse as incidents of violence undermine government legitimacy, scare away domestic foreign investors, and result in low levels of social trust.”100 Moreover, election violence may trigger larger conflict. For example, after the 1992 elections in Angola, the country plunged back into civil war, and the 1999 independence referendum in East Timor resulted in 1,400 civilian casualties due to violent attacks by anti-independence militias. Even when large-scale conflict does not erupt, subnational regions or entire countries can fall into a conflict trap, a vicious cycle in which conflicts aggravate existing poverty and other societal cleavages, which increases the risk of future conflict.101 The relapse into conflict is particularly unfortunate when elections have been part of peace-building strategies. In short, the consequences of election violence are detrimental and can be severe for democratic attitudes and behavior, development, and larger conflict risks. Although there are a few cases where post-vote violence has resulted in leadership change or democratization, a review of existing work and cases indicate that the vast majority of violent elections have not resulted in positive consequences. While future research is needed to answer this question definitively, the weight of the evidence supports the notion that election violence is undesirable.

Chapter Outline In chapter 1, I present my argument in detail. First, I distinguish the logic of violence before vs. after elections and outline frequent causes and triggers, highlighting those that can be influenced by external election support. Then I detail how the effect of international election support on election violence depends on

THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRACY AID AND ELECTION VIOLENCE      29

the type of support (observation or technical assistance) and the election period (before/after voting). I specify testable hypotheses and contrast them with alternative approaches, emphasizing strictly domestic factors. I also introduce the main empirical measures used in subsequent chapters. In chapters 2 through 4, I test the argument proposed in chapter 1 and its observable implications. Chapter 2 empirically tests the pre-election argument. I leverage cross-national data on technical election assistance, observation, and election violence for Africa and Latin America since 1990. I show that election support significantly reduces campaign violence. I substantiate the causal mechanism about limiting manipulation and removing conflict triggers with a test of alternative explanations and illustrative case material, including data from elections in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and several other countries. Chapters 3 and 4 shift the focus to the post-election period. Electoral losers are important for the dynamics of violence unfolding after elections, since the peaceful implementation of any election outcome requires their consent to an adverse result. Chapter 3 examines the effect of observer verdicts on post-election violence. I document how election observers’ negative verdict about an election’s credibility can exacerbate violence by strengthening electoral losers. I show that international condemnations increase post-election violence and that this works through loser challenges. I also show that this observer effect is not due to fraud alone or reverse causation. I then flesh out the large-N results and illustrate these dynamics with case material from Kenya, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, and short examples from other regions. This chapter contributes to research on election monitoring by highlighting its effects on violence, whereas much prior research has underlined effects on related phenomena, such as fraud, boycotts, and protests. It also contributes to research on the negative unintended effects of international organizations. In chapter 4, I show that technical assistance can reduce post-election violence. Using data on UN technical election assistance, I present quantitative evidence that such assistance has reduced violence in Africa, and I document that this effect works through increasing the capacity and credibility of the election commission and the cleaner election process. Importantly, these analyses account for the previous quality of the national election commission. The mechanism—increased capacity and credibility of the election commission—is further illustrated with case material from elections in Guyana and Bangladesh. Since technical assistance has received virtually no scholarly attention, chapters 2 and 4 provide some of the first quantitative empirical results about its effects. The concluding chapter summarizes the book’s arguments and findings and outlines implications for research and policymaking. The international ­community has invested considerable resources in democracy aid, often with

30    INTRODUCTION

the aim of influencing and assessing the credibility of elections and reducing conflict around elections. Yet, as the chapters demonstrate, these efforts have had mixed results. Here, I suggest that international election support could focus more on strengthening domestic election commissions to help them hold more credible—and thus more peaceful—elections. I also outline ways to conduct election observation that might mitigate the risk of post-election violence.

1 CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY

How does international democracy aid influence election violence? In this ­chapter, I explain how external election support can alter the incentives of domestic actors to engage in violence by shaping election credibility. First, I conceptualize election violence and explain the different logics of violence pre- and post-election. I then outline the frequent causes and triggers of violence and highlight which of these can be influenced by election support. This yields a baseline model of election violence, which I use in the empirical analyses of chapters 2, 3, and 4. Second, I describe how international election support can influence ­electoral violence by changing the election’s credibility. I explain how the effect of ­democracy aid on violence depends on the type of support (monitoring or technical assistance) and the election period (before/after voting). Technical assistance has the potential to reduce violence before and after elections by strengthening the credibility of election management and thus the credibility of the announced result. Observation can also reduce pre-election violence by monitoring the behavior of the participants and making misconduct costly. After elections, however, observation can exacerbate post-election violence by lowering election credibility. I derive testable hypotheses from the argument and contrast them with alternative approaches emphasizing strictly domestic factors.

31

32    CHAPTER 1

Election Violence: Concept, Logic, and Drivers Conceptualizing Election Violence Election violence is a type of political violence aimed at influencing the election process or outcome and occurs temporally close to elections. More specifically, election violence is physical force intended to hurt or kill someone in order to influence an election. Electoral violence differs from other forms of political violence in terms of its timing, target, and motive/purpose.1 I address each of those three aspects in turn. First, election violence differs from other forms of political violence in its timing, as it occurs temporally close to election events. While many people tend to think of elections as events occurring on a specific day, it is more useful to conceptualize elections as processes involving a period before and after election-day. Conceptualizing elections as a process rather than an event is useful because even though voting is restricted to election-day(s), many activities related to the election take place both before and after voting. Although the number of months associated with an election varies somewhat by country (the length of campaigning periods differs, for instance), scholars most frequently define the election timeframe as the six-month period before an election and the three-month period after the election has passed.2 This is the definition that I use in this book as well. This period of time is usually appropriate because most election-related fatalities and incidents occur within this timeframe. Hence, the unit of analysis in this book is the national election and within that, the relevant election period—either violence before polling (six months before and including election-day) or violence in the three months after polling. Second, electoral violence differs from other forms of political violence in terms of its target: it is directed against people and stakeholders involved in the electoral process. These include candidates, their supporters, voters, and election officials. Physical harm against such stakeholders manifests itself in targeted assassinations, killings, injuries, arrests, and sometimes kidnappings. While this book focuses on the physical use of force against people (as measured by election-related casualties), broader definitions of election violence used elsewhere also include property damage directed against campaign signs or posters and election facilities, such as the national election commission, voter registration centers, polling places, and party offices. Some other definitions of election violence also include intimidation, threats, or verbal abuse. These manifestations often present empirical challenges for research because they require more subjective choices for measurement. When does a verbal threat constitute election violence or ethnic conflict? Further, how can we know how many people were

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      33

impacted by a verbal threat? Were only two bystanders intimidated or a much larger group of people, assuming that victims shared their experience with family, friends, and their broader community? When is graffiti or broken windows election violence rather than vandalism? We also know that women tend to fear election violence more than men—so the same act of intimidation can be perceived quite differently. Thus it often remains unclear how many people were present or affected by intimidation and threats, which makes these aspects more difficult to measure consistently. Even if we exclude more difficult-to-quantify aspects like intimidation, election violence has been rather pervasive. If we focus on whether people were killed or injured as a result of electoral violence, we find that many countries in the developing world have had more than half of their national elections since 1990 affected by violence. Figure 1.1 visualizes each country’s proportion of elections that were violent, with darker shades indicating that a higher percentage of elections have been associated with violence.3 Figure 1.1 documents that election violence is a global phenomenon: even in industrialized, advanced democracies, it is not unheard of.4 Yet it disproportionately affects Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Violence varies widely even within the most conflict-prone continent, Africa. Data indicate that some African countries have not experienced election violence between 1990 and 2012 (such as Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, Zambia); many other countries have experienced violence at some of their elections; and in a third set of countries, violence accompanied more than 60 percent of elections (such as Zimbabwe, DR Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Algeria, and Sudan).5 For the empirical analyses of this book, I have restricted election violence to the more clear-cut, objective, and replicable measure of casualties. Unlike low-level harassment or psychological pressure (intimidation), the (attempted) termination of life in the form of killings and injuries is more difficult for either side to dispute and more consistently and reliably documented. Casualty counts, too, are not perfect measures but lend themselves better to large-scale data collection and analysis for the reasons outlined above. Thus the measure used in the empirical analyses is casualties: the number of people killed or injured in election-related conflict. Third, election violence differs from other forms of political violence in its motive. As is usually the case, motive is often the trickiest of these three aspects to properly examine. Some forms of politically motivated violence are relatively easy to distinguish from election violence. For example, terrorism, civil war, secession movements, or violence related to drug trafficking occur throughout the year; while they may also happen during election times, they are usually not aimed directly at the election process. For example, the Taliban have been active in Afghanistan for many years and carry out attacks on a near-daily basis.

FIGURE 1.1.  Percent of elections with election violence (worldwide 1990–2012, n=1,169 elections/162 countries)

60−100%

40−59%

20−39%

1−19%

0%

Election Violence

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      35

Since the stream of Taliban attacks is almost daily, some of these attacks also occur during election campaigns and on election-day; but only some of these attacks are actually aimed at disrupting the election. Taliban attacks would occur whether or not an election happened to be held. Thus, while Taliban attacks on outposts or markets are likely “regular” political violence, attacks on polling stations or against election officials, candidates, and voters are more likely to be election-related. Since violence is an illegal strategy, perpetrators rarely if ever give a detailed account of their motivation behind particular incidents or attacks. While an actor’s reasoning often remains unobservable, it is still possible to make inferences from observed behavior, such as the target or location (e.g. candidate, polling station). That said, it is important not to mistake all political violence that happens to occur during election periods as election-related violence. When in doubt, it is advisable to err on the side of caution when measuring election violence. If political violence during an election period is not clearly related to election targets or motives and its electoral nature cannot be established, it should not be considered or counted as election violence. Finally, it is important to understand that, for perpetrators, election violence is a strategic tool, used to influence political processes. It is a tool of political competition employed to maximize the chances of winning the election. It should therefore come as no surprise that election violence is usually orchestrated by politicians, particularly incumbent politicians or their affiliates. According to data collected on election violence in sub-Saharan Africa, about 80 percent of pre-election violence and 70 percent of post-election violence is orchestrated by incumbents.6 The remaining share of violence is organized by opposition forces or both/multiple camps. While opposition forces seem to be responsible for a smaller share of violence, they at times engage in nonviolent actions that increase the risk of clashing with police (government forces) or prompting violent reactions. Further, election violence can be—or at least can appear to be—spontaneous,7 such as when supporters of rivaling candidates/parties did not expect to meet but then clashed. More often, however, election violence is organized, planned, and directed by political elites. It is strategic. While elites are responsible for planning election violence, they are rarely associated with the implementation of violence. Case studies in comparative politics research document that politicians often implement violence through party militias, youth wings, or unemployed thugs for hire, exploiting particularly vulnerable sections of society.8 While some early work has conceptualized violence as the ultimate form of fraud,9 much subsequent research—and this book—examines these two ­phenomena as distinct forms of manipulation (nonviolent fraud vs. violence).10

36    CHAPTER 1

Related research has begun to theorize and examine how politicians choose between fraud (ballot stuffing, vote buying, media bias) and intimidation/ violence as alternative means of manipulating elections.11 Outside the election context, other research has addressed why actors choose violent or nonviolent means12 as well as the relationship between dissent and repression.13

The Logic of Election Violence It is important to distinguish the logic of election violence before and after election-day. Pre-election violence has different motivations than post-election violence. Pre-vote violence is used by political actors (the government or opposition forces) to influence vote choice and turnout. In contrast, post-vote violence usually erupts in reaction to the announced result, as the loser violently challenges the election outcome or the winner violently represses a peaceful loser challenge. These distinct theoretical motivations for violence before vs. after voting imply that patterns of election violence should differ over time. Figure 1.2 supports this observable implication by showing that even within individual countries, political violence is not constant within election cycles. Figure 1.2 illustrates the distribution of election violence (whether election-related casualties occurred) in African countries before and after election-day for national elections 1990–2012.14 For each country, it shows the proportion of elections experiencing electoral violence, with darker shading indicating a higher percentage of violent elections. Figure 1.2 demonstrates that pre- and post-election violence are not the same; this suggests that there are different dynamics motivating election violence over the course of an election cycle. It is not just general political violence that consistently pervades the election period. Violence varies with stages in the electoral cycle. For instance, in some countries, pre-election violence is a regular phenomenon but post-election violence is not. This group includes South Africa, Sierra Leone, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. Other countries tend to experience post- but not pre-election violence, such as Tanzania, Guinea-Bissau, and Somalia. While election violence is most commonly deployed when it is used to influence vote choice or turnout before elections, and less so when results are challenged after elections, there are also rare cases in which violence is used to disrupt and reject the election itself. In other words, sometimes violence is not a means of influencing the outcome but rather a means of preventing the election from happening. This was the Taliban’s strategy in Afghanistan when it targeted election facilities and stakeholders to disrupt Afghanistan’s elections in 2014 and 2018.15 This was also the goal of terrorist group Boko Haram, which disrupted Nigeria’s

Before election

After election

Election violence 0% 1−19% 20−39% 40−59% 60−100%

FIGURE 1.2.  Election violence in Africa before and after election-day (1990–2012, n=312 election/49 countries)

38    CHAPTER 1

2015 presidential elections by attacking polling stations, killing voters and a politician, arguing that authority comes from a spiritual figure rather than from the people.16 While these examples demonstrate that violence can be used to prevent voting from taking place at all, violence is more commonly used to influence the results of elections. Violence is frequently used to coerce certain voters to cast ballots in favor of a particular candidate, to prevent certain segments of the population from participating in the election, or to contest the announced election result. I N C EN T I VES F O R PR E - E LE C TI O N V I O LE NCE

Pre-election violence is often employed to shape turnout and vote choice and thus ultimately election outcomes.17 It is a tool of political competition during the campaigning period used primarily to keep the opponents’ supporters from voting, but it is also used to mobilize one’s own supporters or influence partisan choice. One mechanism of doing that is raising the salience of particular identities and thus voting blocs, as Wilkinson argues in his work on election-related riots.18 Note that the logic of violence is identical on election-day and in the campaigning period before election-day: perpetrators are still trying to influence vote choice and turnout until the polls close. A reading of cases confirms this. For example, in Ghana 2004, “political parties have accused one another of encouraging their supporters to vote early and then disrupt the process in the afternoon to prevent the opposing party supporters from casting their ballots.”19 Thus, the logic of violence up to and including election-day is consistent: to change the election result by influencing mobilization and/or partisanship. Campaign violence can limit both the ability and willingness of citizens to vote, thus reducing turnout. Election violence can impair citizens’ ability to turn out on election-day by interfering with voter registration, blocking polling stations, and achieving the physical displacement of potential voters so that they cannot reach polling places.20 Citizens can lose their willingness to vote when their preferred candidate has withdrawn or failed to register because the candidate experienced violence and intimidation.21 Campaign violence is often used to keep an opponent’s supporters from turning out on election-day, but it can also be used to mobilize one’s own supporters. Pre-election violence can be used to increase party discipline and to boost identity politics and the stakes surrounding an election; it can be used to convert a passive supporter into a rabid voter fearful of the consequences of not voting or of what happens if “others” should prevail. In Burundi 2010, Kenya 2007, and India more regularly, campaign violence has been used to boost the support of the parties initiating the violence.22

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      39

In addition to changing turnout, campaign violence can also be used to change vote choice by threatening citizens to vote for a certain candidate/party or—even earlier in the game—by keeping potential candidates from running in the election at all. Recent work has noted that violence can be used early in the campaigning period as intra-party “nomination violence” when candidates of the same party vie for a spot on the general election ballot.23 Pre-vote violence can cause candidates to withdraw or not register in the first place, which limits candidates’ political rights as well as voters’ choice. I N C EN T I VE S FO R PO S T-E LE C TI O N V I OL ENCE

In contrast to pre-election violence, which is intended to influence vote choice and turnout, post-election violence usually erupts if losers challenge the announced result. After elections, the main actors are not necessarily incumbent and opposition forces but rather the electoral loser and winner. During this time, losers have incentives to challenge the announced result if the election was not credible.24 The loser’s consent is more likely when the election result is credible, and this credibility can be shaped by external support. A loser challenge can occur in various ways: it can be verbal, legal, or physical and can be itself violent or generate violent repression by the winner. Election losers are key actors in the post-election context because they have both motive and opportunity to challenge announced results. Losers have incentives to withhold their consent because they have the most to gain from a change in the status quo of future political leadership. In contrast, election winners usually have few incentives to resort to force without a provocation. Election losers are also critical because they “decide whether to fight on” or comply with adverse results.25 For the election outcome to be implemented, displeased losers and their supporters must consent to the adverse result rather than challenge it.26 In many nascent democracies, losers constitute a “weak link in the chain of stable democratic governments.”27 While winners and losers always tend to perceive an election’s legitimacy differently, the usual winner-loser gap in these perceptions is substantially wider in countries with less democratic experience.28 This attitude translates into behavior. Compared to election winners, losers are more willing to denounce flawed elections, to defend institutions against manipulation, and are less inclined to consent to government authority, particularly in African countries.29 In short, the consent of election losers is critical for post-election peace and democratic stability. The loser’s decision to challenge or consent to the result is part of the strategic interaction between loser and winner after an election. The interaction between loser and winner can be seen as steps in a strategic game and is illustrated as such

40    CHAPTER 1

in appendix figure 1B.1. The basic intuition of this game is fairly straightforward, so I describe it here and relegate formal details to appendix 1B. I concentrate on the two key players: the winner (W) and the loser (L).30 After election results are announced, the loser either consents to the election result or challenges it. The loser’s consent ends the post-election game and allows the winner to accept his or her office smoothly and peacefully. Alternatively, the loser can decide to challenge the result, for example through a verbal announcement, legal proceeding, or street protests, which all involve some marginal cost of challenging. If the loser challenges the result, the winner must decide whether to resist that challenge or concede. If the winner concedes to the loser, the game ends.31 If the winner resists—through a verbal act or violent repression—then the loser chooses whether to back down or fight. At this point, a decision by the loser to fight will likely lead to violence used by both sides and sometimes even civil war. That is, post-election violence can be initiated by either actor and erupt at any of three stages: (1) if the loser challenges violently rather than through legal means or peaceful demonstrations; (2) if the winner violently represses the loser’s peaceful protests; or (3) if the loser resorts to violence after the winner’s resistance. My argument is not about who initiates violence but that loser challenges heighten post-vote violence. What makes the loser decide whether to consent to or to challenge the election result? The relative support for the loser vis-a-vis the winner is critical. The basic insight—supported by the model—is that a balance of power (symmetry) increases conflict and a dominance of power (asymmetry) diminishes conflict.32 Greater support for the electoral loser has a conflict-increasing effect. Anything that boosts the loser’s chance of winning a potential post-election fight encourages conflict and loser challenges. This intuition is in line with related research on the link between elections and civil war. This research has noted the link between vote shares as proxies for the mobilization potential of each camp: “although the probability of winning an election increases with the size of a group, so does the probability of winning an armed conflict.”33 Voting and fighting are complements rather than substitutes.34 Some argue that casting a ballot and fighting are linked “in the sense that people who vote for a party are also likely to fight for the same party.”35 Election results are a proxy for the distribution of underlying support and the potential to mobilize a sufficiently large portion of the population against another candidate or party. If the loser is more powerful—due to domestic popular support or external legitimation, as I outline below—he or she has greater incentives to challenge the announced result. Loser challenges of election results can occur in various ways: verbal, legal, or physical. The loser may announce that he or she does not respect the outcome

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      41

of the election, may file a legal challenge to the court, or may mobilize supporters to pour into the streets for protests, demonstrations, or violent riots.36 When institutions to address election disputes are weak or nonexistent, contestants are more likely to express their disputes with extra-institutional means such as violence. Violence—physical force and harm—then occurs when either the initial challenge by the loser is violent or when the winner violently represses a peaceful loser challenge. In contrast to the loser, the winner has little or no incentives to wield violence after elections uninitiated. While the loser has incentives to challenge outcomes in an effort to change the status quo or voice dissatisfaction, the winner has few incentives to use violence against the loser, simply because he or she has already won. Doing “nothing” until inauguration is the rational choice. Thus it should not come as a surprise that it is rare for the winner to initiate post-election violence without any prior loser challenge. When it happens, it is an effort to punish the losing camp for “wrong” behavior. The winning camp at times uses post-election violence to punish the losing camp for making the “wrong” choices—either not participating or participating in favor of the opposition. Armed with information from election results about the location of candidates’ support bases, it becomes rather easy to target repression in the “correct” locations. For example, in the 1991 presidential election in Burkina Faso, the opposition refused to participate and voter turnout was only 25 percent, denying the incumbent, President Blaise Compoare, a strong mandate. After the election, two opposition candidates were attacked: one grenade attack killed opposition activist Clement Ouedraogo, and another attack seriously injured opposition member Moctar Tall. Many people in Burkina Faso believed the government—the winning candidate’s camp—was responsible for these attacks.37 To conclude, it is important to recognize the different logics of violence before and after elections. Pre- and post-vote violence has different data-generating processes underlying it. Pre-election violence is used to influence vote choice and turnout, whereas post-election violence often erupts after the losing camp challenges the announced result. The next section outlines the main drivers of election violence generally as well as a few specific to each period (before vs. after elections).

The Drivers of Election Violence Understanding the logic of violence outlined in the preceding pages is important for understanding the next step: the drivers of election violence, that is to say, factors that can increase or reduce election violence by altering the incentives of potential perpetrators. In this section, I propose a baseline model of elec-

42    CHAPTER 1

tion violence containing several factors and then explain which of these factors can be influenced by international democracy promotion. The baseline model of ­election violence presented here includes the most common factors highlighted in existing research38 and practitioner handbooks.39 The model that emerges from those sources is then used as a baseline model for empirical analyses in chapters 2, 3, and 4. In those chapters, I add the key explanatory variables (technical election assistance and observation) to the baseline model in order to empirically demonstrate how democracy aid influences election violence above and beyond domestic factors currently identified in the literature. The baseline model of election violence proposed here includes several drivers which can be divided into two groups: country-level root causes and election-specific triggers. These drivers are listed in table 1.1. Underlying root causes of election violence are contextual country factors. Oftentimes such root causes are deep-seated and slow-changing. These factors include democratic constraints on political elites, post-conflict (civil war history), economic development, natural resources, population size, and ethnic fractionalization. Since elections are high-stakes events with a significant impact on political power, underlying tensions or conflict risk factors can erupt during elections. Some election-specific triggers of violence include fraud (for post-vote violence), competition (incumbent running for pre-election violence, or the loser’s vote share for post-election violence), poll type (legislative, executive, or general election), and previous election violence. I explain each group of factors in turn. In table 1.1, concepts followed by an asterisk differ slightly in their empirical measures between the pre- and post-election models. Underlying root causes are contextual and can generate discontent (incentivizing violence) or leave potential perpetrators relatively unconstrained (lowering the costs of violence). For example, low accountability (few democratic checks and balances on political elites, a powerful incumbent) is perhaps the most important factor influencing election violence.40 When the perpetrators of fraud and violence go unpunished, this can generate incentives for (more) violence in two ways. First, impunity for election manipulation signals that the election commission and other democratic institutions are weak, so that the costs for committing election crimes are low. This encourages (more) illicit political activity during elections. Second, when election manipulation is not addressed by formal institutions, contestants may take matters into their own hands and resort to extra-institutional means to call attention to what they see as unfairness. The expected level of accountability—that is, the cost for manipulation—often depends on institutional constraints on the executive/political elites and conflict history. In advanced democracies, there are many institutional checks on the

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      43

executive (especially the judiciary and the legislature) and also informal checks such as independent media and civil society. In contrast, electoral autocracies feature few if any checks on the incumbent: the opposition is constrained, media and civil society are curtailed, and the judiciary is often staffed by incumbent partisans. In this context, incumbents face few if any consequences if they direct party loyalists or state security forces to attack political opponents. It also matters whether elections are held in a post-conflict environment because previous experience of civil war may lower accountability costs and increase the means of violence, which increase incentives to engage in election violence. A large body of work has noted how elections in post-conflict settings are different in terms of their context and purpose.41 Post-conflict elections often occur after peace agreements to resolve who governs, and those peace agreements often give the international community a large role in assisting the electoral process through funding, logistics, security, and monitoring. Post-conflict elections serve additional purposes beyond “just” choosing a government: they are meant to facilitate or symbolize an end to intra-state conflict, re-conciliate former combatants, consolidate peace agreements, and further democratization.42 Such elections are supposed to be a conflict-resolution mechanism short of war and to replace bullets with ballots. Yet these high aspirations often hit the hard reality of the most challenging domestic contexts to hold elections, as years of civil war have left their mark: deep political polarization, grievances, weak institutions of all kinds (parties, judiciary, government bureaucracy, media, civil society, roads/infrastructure), and a large group of people with recent combat experience, subject to usually imperfect demobilization and re-integration. These impediments are deepened by refugees, internally displaced people, and a voter register that is likely out of touch with reality. Holding an election under such circumstances would be challenging for any election commission but especially so for commissions destroyed by war, with few

TABLE 1.1  Which election violence drivers can be influenced by international election support DRIVERS WHICH CAN BE INFLUENCED

DRIVERS WHICH CANNOT BE INFLUENCED

country-level root causes

democratic constraints

election-specific triggers

(real or perceived) fraud*

post-conflict economic development natural resources population size ethnic fractionalization competition* poll type past election violence*

44    CHAPTER 1

professional staff and strained budgets. In post-conflict contexts, international election support is critical to help overcome these obstacles, to lift elections off the ground, and to make them more credible. Based on detailed case studies of post-conflict elections, Kumar summarizes: “International electoral assistance is essential . . . without substantial international assistance, elections would not have materialized in Angola, Cambodia, Haiti, Liberia, and Mozambique, and they would have been less credible in El Salvador and Nicaragua. The Ethiopian elections, which saw the lowest level of international involvement, were also the least credible of the postconflict elections covered in this volume.”43 International election support can help compensate for the lack of administrative and financial capacity to organize elections, improve the voter register, and otherwise improve the prospects of credible elections. With regard to influencing election violence, countries recovering from civil war often have weak institutions that lack sufficient capacity to enforce the rules and apply the necessary tools to hold credible elections (party registration, voter register, voter education, and the like). Weak capacity to enforce rules and ensure security is of great consequence for post-conflict elections where past experience with violence has normalized violent behavior such that individual incidents go un-reported or un-punished. Lower accountability means lower costs for violence. Further, unresolved grievances from a recent civil war can provide a motive for violent competition, particularly if the politically opposed sides were also combatants in the civil war. Old grievances may generate differing expectations about who should be in power and may lower the bar at which violence is seen as beneficial. Thus, if political elites have incentives to organize election violence, they are more willing to do so if accountability is low: when they face fewer constraints or act in an environment where violence is normal. In addition to low accountability, lower levels of economic development— which often result from conflict—can lessen the costs for violence and thus increase incentives for engaging in election violence. Lower economic development makes it easier and cheaper for political elites to hire (oftentimes) unemployed young men to engage in violence, for instance.44 If individuals have little to lose, they are more likely to engage in risky activities. It is worth noting, however, that even countries with a history of civil war vary in election violence. That is, past civil war does not explain all country-level variation in election violence. It still leaves variation un-explained: some post-conflict countries tend to have violent elections (Angola, DRC, Haiti), whereas others tend to have relatively peaceful elections (Mozambique, Liberia, Sierra Leone, El Salvador). While some factors lower the cost of violence, others can increase the benefit of using violence. For instance, the prevalence of natural resources can increase

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      45

the stakes of elections, since the winner will be able to distribute more goods among his or her supporters—natural resources heighten the stakes because there is more to distribute. Here, the difference between being in and out of power can have substantial implications for supporters of political camps. Hence rivalries over natural resources and conflicts over their distribution can increase the benefits of engaging in election violence. Further, domestic ethnic arrangements—high fractionalization or salient ethnic identities that are split along party lines—can also increase the benefit of using violence because political elites can use violence against the “other” to increase ethnic identification in their own camp.45 In a range of countries, winning elections is a numbers game of calculating the relative size of ethnic support groups, and polarization along ethnic lines then raises conflict risk along the same lines. Lastly, population size is included in many models because larger countries tend to experience more election violence. While these underlying root causes of election violence are compelling in some cases, they provide limited leverage in explaining variation in levels of election violence in a single country over the course of several election cycles. That is, many of these lines of inquiry are limited in their causal leverage because largely time-invariant factors—things that change very slowly over the years—cannot explain changes in election violence within a single country across a series of elections. This is especially true of factors like economic development and conflict history, which change only slowly. Since the level of per capita income stays largely constant over five- and ten-year periods, it is difficult to use (largely constant) income as an explanation for violence variation, i.e. why one election remained peaceful and another turned violent, given similar levels of economic development. In addition, most political institutions are usually slow to change, perhaps with one exception: electoral institutions can be strengthened in the short term through democracy support provided by international organizations (discussed further below). To explain variation across elections within individual countries—as illustrated in figure 1.2—election-level factors provide more leverage than country-level factors. The three most relevant election-level factors for election violence are fraud (for post-election violence), competition, poll type, and past election violence. All four factors can change from one election to the next. Election fraud is one of the key correlates of post-election violence. After elections, contestation is often triggered by fraud or the exposure of fraud. Perceived or real unfairness is one of the key motivators for contestation.46 Election-day fraud can serve as a focal point for collective action as it makes it easier for political elites to rally their troops. The exposure of fraud can change individuals’ calculus about participating in protest and rebellions.47 However, relative to the

46    CHAPTER 1

large share of elections where at least one party claimed fraud, the incidence of post-election violence is relatively small. This implies that variation in fraud (or fraud claims) alone cannot explain variation in post-vote violence. Below, I explain how fraud and the external exposure of fraud can be influenced by international election support. Specifically, I argue that it is not fraud itself but rather the exposure of that fraud by credible external actors—in other words, internationally certified fraud—that often facilitates post-election challenges and violence. Following this logic and much of the literature, fraud concerns are included in the post-election models but not the pre-election models.48 Further, electoral competition can influence election violence. Before elections, competition is often closely linked to whether the incumbent is running. When the incumbent is running, he or she usually commands a much larger share of resources than opposition candidates; this has the result of tilting the playing field or disproportionately favoring the incumbent in the electoral process. Yet the implications about how competition affects pre-election violence often remain unclear. While the incumbent has access to a large state apparatus to wield coercive power, opponents—who have less access to state coffers and thus less leverage through vote buying and fraud—may use campaign violence as a weapon of the weak. In contrast, the effect of competition on post-election violence is rather clear in that more competitive elections are more prone to violence. This means that when two parties or candidates enjoy similar popular support and election results are close, with a small margin of victory, then incentives are high for the loser to challenge the election. This is because close election results are more likely to be overturned through re-counts or re-votes than when one candidate or party wins in a landslide. In cases where the loser enjoys almost as much popular support as the winner, the large percentage of the population who voted for the losing candidate could be more strongly motivated by perceptions of fraud to protest against the announced result. Thus competition is operationalized as incumbent running for the pre-election models and as loser vote share in the post-election models. Competition is listed as a driver that cannot be influenced by international support because of the way in which it is measured here. The decision of the incumbent to run and the national election result are rarely influenced directly from the outside.49 Additionally, poll type—whether the election is for the legislature, the executive, or both—also has the potential to influence election violence because it heightens the stakes and can therefore impact the usefulness of electoral violence as a political tool. While electoral system design seems to matter in some cases,50 the nature of the election at stake can be particularly important. Executive elections tend to be perceived as more prone to violence because the executive in

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      47

many countries is more powerful; this is particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, which are predominantly presidential or semi-presidential systems. Given this logic, legislative elections should be less prone to violence than executive elections, which should in turn be less prone to violence than general elections because those combine the stakes—and administrative challenge—of both contests on a single day. Lastly, many studies of election violence control for whether the country’s previous election was violent. That is, studies of campaign violence usually include an indicator of whether the previous election was violent. And studies of post-vote violence usually control for whether pre-election violence occurred. Results about the correlation between pre- and post-vote violence vary. Some have found a correlation between pre- and post-election violence or protest,51 but others have found no relationship.52 This book focuses on the international influences on election violence— particularly those that can increase constraints on political elites or reduce fraud—but I include all of the domestic factors discussed above as control variables for the statistical analyses undertaken in chapters 2, 3, and 4. That is, the baseline model of election violence includes constraints on the executive, conflict history, economic development, natural resources, population size, ethnic fractionalization, as well as competition (incumbent running, loser vote share), poll type, and past election violence. In addition, post-election models also include fraud as a control. Appendix 1C details the data sources and measurement.

The Argument: Election Support, Credibility, and Violence This section introduces the theoretical argument of how international election support can affect election violence by altering election credibility. As detailed in the introduction, I conceptualize elections as credible when they are competently managed and on a level playing field. For an election to be seen as credible, the process needs to be managed well (usually but not exclusively through the election commission) and political elites need to be held accountable for their actions during the process, so that they can expect to pay costs for tilting the playing field. This is a matter of degree, and countries vary widely in election credibility. Credible Election Theory has two parts: international support can influence election credibility, and more credible elections are less likely to turn violent. International election support can change the credibility of an election by increasing the accountability of contestants for manipulation and by improving

48    CHAPTER 1

election management. Elections are more credible when potential perpetrators of manipulation (fraud and violence) are held responsible for their actions. If political elites are more likely to be identified and publicly denounced, they are more likely to be deterred from manipulation. This, in turn, means that it is more likely that citizens will vote freely, that citizens will be confident that their votes will be counted, and that the announced result accurately reflects preferences in the population. Yet accountability can also backfire after election-day: when election observers draw attention to manipulation and declare that the election did not meet democratic standards, it can fuel conflict. Such a negative observer verdict reduces the election’s credibility and can increase the loser’s incentives to challenge the result, potentially leading to violence. The effectiveness of international election support depends on the reputation of international actors. In particular, the effect of international election observation on election violence hinges on how well observer groups act as an external accountability device. This is why I focus on reputable observer groups throughout this book. Observer groups vary widely in their reputation, which is a function of costly effort, willingness to criticize, and independence.53 Costly effort involves larger missions, spending more time in the host country (particularly with a smaller, advance group of long-term observers), making a systematic effort to observe, and issuing more detailed reports that outline the reasoning behind their assessment. Willingness to criticize in past elections influences observer reputation: groups that get it wrong and fail to condemn clearly fraudulent elections risk reputation loss. Observer reputation is earned over time (as groups attend and assess elections) and is never fixed or certain, even for experienced groups. For instance, several reputable observer groups did not condemn Kenya’s 2017 election, which was subsequently nullified by Kenya’s Supreme Court, and this generated a wave of criticism and doubt over the accuracy of even established observer groups. Reputation has to be earned and preserved time and again. Independence from the host country government or organizations and, to some degree, from single-country external donor funding also boosts reputation. This is one reason why some domestic observer groups and some regional observer groups are seen as less credible: because they sometimes share funding and potential interest in the election outcome rather than the electoral process. Reputable observer groups prioritize and evaluate the electoral process, not the election result. Based on seminal research by Susan Hyde, reputable observer groups include—but are not limited to—the European Union (EU), the Carter Center, the Organization of American States (OAS), and the Commonwealth Secretariat.54 The National Democratic Institute (NDI), International Republican Institute (IRI), and International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) are also reputable

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      49

groups because they exert costly effort and are willing to criticize, although host countries have tried to discredit them over questions of independence (partial U.S. government funding).55 Still other observer organizations are not reputable, as they exert little effort, are rarely or never critical, and have questionable ­independence; these include the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. These groups are not the subject of this book. This book focuses on reputable observer groups (and criticism by such reputable groups) as defined here and captured in the Nelda dataset.56 Only reputable groups are in a position to increase the accountability of contestants for manipulation. Groups that do not criticize do not pose a deterrent threat on potential perpetrators. Further, elections are more credible when the key election institution—the national election commission (NEC) or another election management body—has a higher capacity to organize and conduct elections. When the NEC is more competent, independent, and able to conduct a clean and smooth electoral process, then there is less room for real or perceived unfairness. The risk of election fraud can be diminished when elections are planned well in advance, when potential shortcomings are identified and addressed, and when technical glitches are avoided. Recent research has highlighted the large role that election commissions play, for both real and perceived election quality: election commissions’ performance is the most important driver of citizens’ attitudes about election quality in Africa.57 Since election fraud and manipulation are key motivators behind election contestation, elections that are perceived to be well conducted should also be less likely to result in electoral violence after voting. Proper tabulation of the votes and accurate aggregation of local to national results generates fewer motives for challenges and thus higher costs of political elites to rally their supporters for contestation. The risk of perceived election fraud can be further reduced with voter education: there is less room for ignorance to be exploited, for propaganda about unfairness to be seen as legitimate, and for rumors to spread if political elites and voters are informed about their rights and responsibilities, the process of voting and tabulation, and institutional channels for dispute resolution. When it is more difficult to mobilize supporters for unrest, political elites who still wish to contest the election and engage in political violence will find it more costly to do so. Violence becomes a less politically viable alternative. In other words, competent election management can reduce the amount of fuel available to feed the fire of election violence. In a conceptual and qualitative study, Höglund, Jarstad, and Kovacs point to election institutions, and in particular election commissions, as one of the key factors for election violence in war-torn countries.58 My argument builds

50    CHAPTER 1

on these insights and extends them in two ways: (1) election commissions can improve election quality and help reduce violence also in the campaigning period by providing transparent administration and a venue to manage mistrust and disputes; and (2) election commission capacity can be boosted by technical election a­ ssistance. That is, while domestic political will is necessary for ­reforming ­election management,59 international technical assistance helps enhance the logistics and fill capacity gaps that otherwise might remain unaddressed. With reference to table 1.1, reputable election observers can serve as an external accountability mechanism, acting as an external constraint that helps deter political elites from manipulation and helps level the playing field. Observation and its anticipated report on election quality can serve as an external accountability mechanism by holding political elites accountable for illegitimate practices, deterring manipulation, and thus heightening costs for violence. Also with reference to table 1.1, technical election assistance can increase election management capacity to hold smoother elections, handle disputes better, reduce (real or perceived) fraud, and thus lower incentives for violence. Taken together, more credible elections are less prone to election violence because the costs for using violence are higher and there is less reason to use violence in clean and smooth electoral processes. The other side of the coin is that publicizing manipulation when it happens can reduce election credibility in the short run and thus make contestation and violence more likely. Notably, when international election observers allege that voting or counting were fraudulent, they raise doubt that the election result accurately reflects preferences in the population, suggesting that the credibility of the election is low. In other words, observer condemnation can undermine the legitimacy of the election result. While observer groups largely follow their mandate of publicly judging elections and do not intend to raise tension, a condemnation provides the losing camp a stamp of approval for potential challenges to the election result. Before proceeding, it is worth addressing two reasonable questions. Some may wonder whether IOs are strategic actors and why IOs are needed in the first place. IOs are often needed in elections in developing countries because they provide authoritative information and resources that would not have been available otherwise. The added value of monitors is providing information on election quality. Hyde argues that international observer groups have several credibility advantages over domestic organizations, such as independent funding and usually an interest in the process rather than in the election outcome.60 Fur-

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      51

ther, international support is often needed because developing countries tend to encounter resource shortages, and organizing an election can be a daunting task. Consider Liberia’s recent 2017 election, which was the first time in decades that the national election commission was primarily responsible for managing the elections. Two civil wars and the 2014 Ebola crisis have damaged domestic infrastructure and resources: only about half of adults are literate and roads are often in desolate conditions outside the capital Monrovia. While the country is r­ ecovering, the physical act of holding an election under these conditions is challenging. This is perhaps most apparent when it comes to the transportation of ballot boxes and staffing of polling stations. Five staff members were to be present in every polling station, but only two of them were required to be literate because otherwise these positions would have been difficult or impossible to fill across the country. Even with the best domestic efforts, technical glitches or deviations from procedures can be perceived as intentional, potentially raising fears of manipulation. A return to violence could potentially lose years of investment in peacekeeping and reconstruction. In such fragile contexts—and others—external support for the planning, training, staffing, and logistical effort that an election entails is important for election success, that is, for being seen as a credible democratic exercise. In the case of Liberia 2017, the UN provided expertise to the NEC, with the UNDP Chief Technical Advisor physically located in the NEC building for close collaboration. When election disputes and tensions did arise after the first round of presidential elections, the UN helped organize a refresher training on electoral dispute resolution for hearing officers and clerks to better handle complaints.61 The run-off proceeded peacefully. It is often difficult to see the dog that did not bark, but individual cases such as this show that external support is meaningful and can boost domestic capacity. Another issue is whether international organizations are strategic in where they go and what they do. For both types of support examined here, host country governments must invite or accept external support. It is an interaction between two actors (and often three, if donors are separate from implementing organizations). Accepting technical assistance often involves intense scrutiny and reforms, which is one reason why governments are less open to assistance than to observation. As I show elsewhere,62 the demand and supply of technical assistance has systematic components: on the host country side, governments are less likely to request technical assistance when the political costs are high (when they are autocratic) or when the benefits are low (when they already have strong electoral institutions). On the provider side, international organizations are less likely to provide such technical assistance when the government appears to lack

52    CHAPTER 1

the political will for reform and when full project implementation is unlikely. Since we lack consistent data on government requests (demand) for observation, similar studies of demand and supply have not been conducted for observation. Although we are unable to systematically assess demand separately (or whether governments invited a range of organizations but were turned down by some of them), research has identified what drives the eventual outcome (supply or whether elections are observed).63 In this book, I incorporate this knowledge of strategic selection and draw on these previous studies to model the process of non-random assignment (where IOs go), which is explained at the end of this chapter. Further, in terms of IOs being strategic in what they say, some may reasonably point to observers perhaps withholding criticism if they do anticipate the condemnation-violence link. In fact, Kelley has argued that there is evidence for the notion that observers withhold criticism in fear of triggering or worsening violence.64 Note that, if true, it lends support to the argument in this book in two ways. One, it provides evidence that the statistical result uncovered in this book (condemned elections have more post-vote violence) is indeed supported by experiences on the ground. Second, if observer groups are indeed strategically issuing more positive reports when they fear generating violence, it makes it more difficult to uncover the condemnation-violence link in the statistical analysis. That is, strategic adaptation of observer statements would make it more difficult to find the effect that I find in chapter 3.

Support and Pre-Election Violence In the pre-election period, international support can change the electoral environment, reduce manipulation, and thus shape the political arena by making the electoral process more credible. First, reputable international observers can increase the accountability of potential perpetrators of fraud and violence because external scrutiny increases the likelihood that the perpetrators are detected and publicized. Given increased accountability, perpetrators have incentives to reduce manipulation or abstain from it entirely; they are more likely to play by the official rules. Second, technical election assistance can increase the capacity of election management (often working with the national election commission) to run a smooth and clean election, to remove potential conflict triggers, and to keep conflict from escalating. While election observers can increase accountability through their presence (and the anticipated public reports of their findings), technical assistance can boost election quality, which should change contestants’

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      53

Observation

Greater accountability of perpetrators

Less pre-election violence

Technical assistance

Greater capacity of election management

Less pre-election violence

FIGURE 1.3.  International election support, credibility, and pre-election violence

e­ xperience of the election and the perceived credibility of the election overall. This is illustrated in figure 1.3. O B S ERVAT I O N : I N C R E A S I N G AC C O U NTABI L I TY

International election observers can increase the accountability for potential perpetrators of fraud and violence by increasing the likelihood that perpetrators are caught. While actors may prefer to influence vote choice and turnout and at times even resort to campaign violence for this purpose, they also face constraints. These constraints come in the form of democratic constraints on political elites. When potential perpetrators face a higher risk of being held responsible for their actions, they are less likely to pursue their preferences for influencing vote choice and turnout with violence. Greater accountability should lower violence, and may instead reduce manipulation or abstain from it entirely. Yet developing countries vary widely in the robustness of those institutional constraints on political elites. Particularly when these domestic constraints are lacking or not well developed, international election support can supplement weak institutions. Reputable election observation can increase accountability by making it more likely that manipulation will be detected and publicized. IO monitors can detect election fraud by being physically present throughout the voting process and the campaigning period. Beyond polling and vote aggregation, many observers also evaluate the legal framework, media bias, and campaign spending, all of which can significantly tilt the playing field.65 Such evaluations, which often come when the electoral process is already fully underway, provide information about the quality of the election. Anticipating that the observer’s findings will be published, domestic political stakeholders can be deterred from engaging in manipulation.66 It is rare but noteworthy to get political leaders publicly stating that external monitoring changed their manipulation. One such occasion came to light during IFES’ involvement in the 2006–2007 election in Bangladesh, where monitors were observing manipulation and specifically electoral violence, and

54    CHAPTER 1

then—importantly—reported on incidents every two weeks. Such monitoring seems to have had an impact as “local political leaders were concerned about being ‘watched’ . . . and political leaders in constituencies where IFES did not have monitors also warned their supporters to avoid violence because they were being monitored!”67 In principle, the greater cost of manipulation in the presence of observers can have two effects: it can deter would-be cheaters entirely or cause them to use more subtle means that are less likely to be caught and condemned.68 For example, less overt manipulation like changes to the law or election management body far ahead of the election (instead of overt ballot stuffing) are less likely to be criticized because it often remains unclear whether it is caused by malicious intent or maladministration. However, either type of manipulation (overt or covert) is relatively more likely to be discovered in the presence of observers than in their absence.69 In terms of building accountability, I extend existing arguments about observer effects on fraud to the issue of violence because the logic of the causal mechanism should apply equally. If IO monitors can detect and deter fraud (nonviolent manipulation),70 they should also be able to detect and deter pre-election violence (violent manipulation). Similar to fraud, international monitoring also increases the risk that election violence is revealed as well as the risk that its perpetrators are publicly condemned. For example, the European Union mission condemned campaign violence in Guyana in 2001: “Last night, Wednesday 28 February, international observers witnessed an incident of violence at a political meeting in Tucville, Georgetown, involving stone throwing. We strongly condemn any acts of violence and urge all Parties to call on their supporters to act with restraint.”71 Assuming that domestic actors anticipate critical observer reports, they should also be deterred from using violence as a campaign tool. Violence before and on election-day is more costly in the presence of observers, implying that election violence should be reduced in the presence of observers. Manipulation is costly because it usually results in negative observer reports, which cast serious doubt on the credibility of the election. Such negative reports by reputable observer groups—what I call condemnations—can generate costs in the domestic and international realm. On the domestic side, condemnations cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election winner and strengthen the electoral loser; this increases the risk of challenges to the election result and increases the chances of violence in the aftermath of the election. In several documented cases, condemnations have contributed to unrest and regime changes,72 thus diminishing the winner’s chance of actually ruling. From the perspective of the incumbent, the fundamental challenge is in maximizing all levers of winning while not overstepping the boundaries of political competition so far as to ­trigger

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      55

observer condemnation or a loser challenge to their victory. Whoever wins wants the loser(s) to accept the election result so that gaining and holding power can progress smoothly. Thus manipulation, including violence, should be lower when international observers attend elections. Criticism by international observers can result in punishment in the form of reduced foreign aid, trade, and diplomacy. When observers issue a negative verdict, international organizations are more likely to impose material or reputational costs on the government. In particular, IOs are more likely to suspend member states or impose economic sanctions when elections have gone bad.73 Regional organizations where countries risk losing membership benefits are particularly active in this regard,74 but external sanctions (such as by the EU against African countries) are also often imposed after democratic transgressions.75 In addition, observer verdicts can trigger cuts in aid and trade,76 depriving countries of democracy-contingent benefits until their return to good standards. One prominent example is Togo: its failure to hold plausibly democratic elections led to the near-total suspension of foreign aid for over a decade.77 The European Union and bilateral donors suspended their aid in response to Togo’s lack of democracy and its worsening human rights record. The international community made credible elections a condition for resuming its aid to Togo, but subsequent elections failed to reach that threshold. The EU partially resumed aid when the government committed to initial reforms in 2005. The EU opened up more development funds after the 2007 election, which its observers deemed fairly credible. In short, international observation can help hold political elites accountable for manipulation. Hence, election observation should help make the campaigning period more credible and less violent. T EC H N I C A L E LE C TI O N A S S I S TA N C E : INCR EASI NG CAPACI TY

Technical assistance is aimed at improving processes of election management that fall short of domestic and international standards or otherwise cause disruptions. This includes improvements in voter registration and education, an increase in the resources for election management and the number and training of election staff, complaints adjudication, legal regulations, communication, and cooperation between the election commission and other stakeholders around the election, including security forces and media.78 It is often—but not exclusively—focused on increasing the capacity of the election commission, as that is the central player in the electoral process, one that is involved in all phases and aspects of the electoral cycle. Technical election assistance efforts usually begin months (and sometimes years) before the election and involve working with both institutions and civil society. As technical assistance is focused on increasing the capacity and credibility of election management, it should

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increase the credibility of the process and ultimately the announced result. That is, technical assistance should boost election quality, which changes contestants’ experience of the election. This, in turn, can have meaningful effects on post-vote violence, as it makes it more likely that the loser consents or at least channels a dispute through institutions instead of taking it to the streets. In the pre-election period, technical assistance can remove conflict triggers through institutional reforms and can keep violence from escalating through security reforms. When a country has particular conflict triggers in the electoral process which have led to tensions or violence in past elections, these can often be addressed through technical assistance. For example, procedural changes in how and when candidate registration or voter registration is done can ease tensions. In some countries, voter registration has been done fairly close to the actual election date which overlaps with political campaigns. This can make voter registration drives seem political, rather than an administrative necessity. Technical assistance can consult with the election commission to move up the schedule of pre-election events and assist in holding or even completing voter registration before political party campaigns commence. Similarly, political party/candidate registration can become conflictual at times, and procedural changes to the timing of their registration can also lower the conflict potential. Technical assistance can also help keep tensions from escalating by raising election security. This is done before, on, and after election-day, if more police are hired and trained to provide security to campaign rallies, individual polling stations, and ballot boxes. Security interventions can also influence pre-election dynamics through increased coordination between the election commission, political parties, civil society, and the police; this can help detect local tensions earlier, discuss incidents, address rumors, and resolve problems in a joint forum. Regular meetings of such joint committees can act as mediation forums to detect local hotspots and address them before tensions spiral into violence. Technical assistance can also help make voting on election-day more smooth and less conflict-prone by increasing the capacity of the election commission in terms of its staff and material and in terms of its voter education efforts. Assistance to the NEC often includes material support such as hiring and training more polling station officials; purchasing ballots, ink, and ballot boxes; and helping with the logistical challenge of transportation on and after election-day. Further, technical assistance to the election commission often includes voter education, which can inform more citizens about how voting works, such as which polling station to go to and which identification documents to bring. When potential voters know what to expect, polling staff are well trained, and sufficient supplies arrive in time, then voters should become less likely to be turned away at polling stations or be disenfranchised. More effective election-day management makes it less likely that

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      57

tensions erupt on election-day, such as scuffles between polling station staff and voters or property damage when potential voters express their dissatisfaction with long wait times. This leads to the first set of hypotheses: Hypothesis 1a. International election observation should reduce pre-election violence. Hypothesis 1b. International technical election assistance should reduce pre-election violence.

Support and Post-Election Violence I now turn to violence after elections. As explained above, violence after elections often emerges when the electoral loser deems the results to be not credible and challenges them, leading to clashes between contestants. International election support can influence post-election violence by increasing or diminishing the credibility of the result; this in turn influences the loser’s willingness to consent to the election result. Election observers can reduce the credibility of the election result by publicizing the misbehavior of contestants. As noted for the pre-election period, election observation can increase the accountability of potential perpetrators of manipulation by increasing the risk that perpetrators are identified and called out. After election-day, domestic and international actors await the announcement of this observer verdict. When observer teams issue their verdict on the election’s quality and that verdict is negative, they publicly cast doubt on the credibility of the election. In negative reports, observers allege significant manipulation and declare that the election process fell short of democratic standards, usually due to actions of political elites. Those actions can relate to voting and counting (ballot stuffing, questionable tabulation, or unrealistically high turnout) or to the pre-election period if the playing field was significantly tilted at that time. Casting doubt on the credibility of results can heighten the loser’s incentives to challenge. Since electoral losers tend to be dissatisfied with election results, they have incentives to take any doubt on the result’s credibility as a legitimate motive for mobilizing their supporters. In contrast, technical assistance should improve the credibility of the result by increasing the capacity of the election commission to conduct a smoother and cleaner election, thus diminishing the loser’s incentives to challenge it. It can also improve processes to adjudicate and resolve election disputes and thus encourage the loser to work through institutions rather than taking disputes to the streets if a challenge does take place. Election assistance can increase the capacity of the national election commission to reduce delays and technical difficulties in the counting and tabulation

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process; it also helps ensure that there are sufficient ballots, ink, and ballot boxes delivered on time, so that voters have a chance to vote rather than being denied this opportunity and being turned away at the polling station. Technical assistance can also support the commission’s effort at voter education, activities that include setting expectations about election-day (which documents to bring, where to go) and counting/tabulation. For example, voter education can clarify that the initial results often change as more regions submit their local results. While one candidate or party is leading in initial results, the leading candidate can change as results from different ­locations trickle in during subsequent hours and days, and these changes are not necessarily due to manipulation. When elections run smoothly, expectations are clear, and results are verified in a timely manner, this works against rumors and speculation of result tampering that might otherwise arise in the post-election period. While even technically smooth elections are no panacea for violence, improving the capacity of the election commission should help build the credibility of the process and of the announced result. This diminishes the loser’s incentives for a challenge and thus increases the probability of the loser’s consent and post-election peace. This is illustrated in figure 1.4. In the remainder of this chapter, I introduce these arguments in more detail. O B S ERVAT I O N : I N C R E A S I N G AC C O U N TABI L I TY THRO U GH ( P OT EN T I A L LY N E G ATI V E ) O B S E RV E R V ER D I CTS

Election observers can increase the accountability for manipulation by publishing authoritative statements about election quality. Shortly after election-day, observer organizations issue press statements and accompanying reports about the credibility of the electoral process and, by implication, its result.79 Observer verdicts are often eagerly awaited and are widely disseminated through the domestic and international media. Observer verdicts can be either positive or negative. When election observers issue their verdict on the election’s quality and that verdict is negative, they publicly cast doubt on the credibility of the election. Neg-

Observation

Technical assistance

if negative Greater accountability: More post-election verdict on election violence quality? Greater capacity for voting & counting

Less post-election violence

FIGURE 1.4.  International election support, credibility, and post-election violence

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      59

ative verdicts (“condemnations”) allege significant fraud and usually state one of the following: “elections have fallen short of key international and regional standards for democratic elections,” “there was significant manipulation,” or “there was evidence of widespread manipulation.” An election is condemned when at least one reputable observer group criticizes the election, as “criticism by one internationally reputable group is usually sufficient to cast doubt on the quality of the process and potentially arm post-election protesters with greater legitimacy.”80 The shortcomings noted are usually ­intentional malpractice: when ballots are late or missing predominantly in opposition strongholds; when ballot boxes are stuffed in front of observers; ballots are marked identically; or when ballot boxes disappear and re-emerge with additional ballots inside them, making it unclear which ballots should be legitimately counted toward the result. Observer groups also place particular emphasis on transparency in the counting process: they note when they have been physically excluded from the room where counting took place and when the aggregation of local results does not match national estimates. An observer group’s decision to condemn an election usually requires substantial evidence that egregious manipulation has occurred.81 Consequently, when reputable groups do condemn elections, this public statement is a strong indication of manipulated results. Drawing attention to manipulation and casting doubt on the accuracy of the announced election result reduces the credibility of results, which strengthens the loser. Since electoral losers tend to be dissatisfied with election results, they have incentives to take any doubt on the result’s credibility as a legitimate motive for mobilizing their supporters. Observer condemnation makes electoral losers more likely to believe that the election result was not credible.82 These attitudinal changes can translate into behavioral changes and generate violence. Condemnations strengthen the loser—and thus increase the risk of a challenge and violence—in two ways: by revealing that the true level of the loser’s popular support is likely higher than the official election result suggests; and by serving as a focal point for mobilization among the loser’s supporters. First, an international condemnation indicates that the result is likely biased in favor of the winner and that the loser likely performed stronger than the official vote share suggests. Since manipulation is usually in favor of the winner, this suggests that the losing candidate’s actual vote share and support are higher than the official results.83 For example, this may indicate that instead of 40 percent of the popular vote, the loser actually enjoys the support of 45 or 50 percent of voters. As discussed above, popular strength at the ballot box and in the street are closely linked, so the loser has ways to infer her or his mobilization potential.

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Second, a condemnation also serves as a focal point for coordination and helps crystallize support behind the loser in favor of overturning the result. While the condemnation indicates that the loser is likely stronger than expected, the decision to challenge is often contingent upon a decision at the individual and group levels: Should we mobilize and go out on the streets to rebel or should we stay home and thereby consent? Although supporters prefer standing by their candidate, their individual cost of rebellion potentially involves violence and state repression, which need to be weighed against the probability of success. Thus, from the supporters’ perspective, judging the legitimacy of the potential challenge is critical. However, claims of fraud are easily and often made—especially by electoral losers. An international verdict can help supporters distinguish between political cheap talk and claims substantiated by evidence. Observer verdicts have higher informational value than domestic allegations of fraud because observers have fewer ties to domestic contestants and issue allegations of fraud much less often than domestic actors. The exposure of fraud can change an individual’s calculus about participating in rebellions.84 In particular, exposure of fraud can facilitate mobilization by lowering individuals’ cost of punishment and increasing the likelihood of success.85 Once a sufficient number of supporters gather on the streets, “informational cascades” can set in where the size of the masses keeps swelling,86 further reducing an individual’s likelihood of being targeted for punishment. As such, the exposure of fraud can serve as a focal point for solving collective action problems by changing an individual’s calculus about participating in rebellions.87 In short, the IO report serves as a coordination mechanism to decide between two equilibria: all stay home or go out into the streets. The latter is the focal point if an election is condemned. Thus a negative IO report shifts the candidate’s probability of winning a post-election fight in favor of the loser by increasing the number of people who are willing to fight for the loser. Overall, condemnations can increase the risk of post-vote violence because electoral losers can draw on these international verdicts to legitimize their challenge and facilitate mobilization among their supporters. If the loser is more likely to win a potential fight, s/he is more likely to risk a fight by challenging the result. Challenges can trigger violence either when the challenge itself starts out violent, when it provokes reactionary violence by the winner, or when the loser decides to use force after the winner resists. Thus one should be able to observe increased election violence after negative observer reports. This leads to the second set of hypotheses, the first of which runs as follows: Hypothesis 2a. Observer condemnation should increase post-election violence. That is, conditional on having observers, condemned elections should experience more post-election violence than non-condemned elections.

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T EC H N I C A L E LE C TI O N A S S I S TA N C E : INCR EASI NG CAPACI TY

Technical election assistance can boost the credibility of the election commission and the result that it announces. In fact, building the NEC’s capacity for voting and counting processes gets to the core of what technical election ­assistance is all about. There is some evidence that this is successful: UN technical election assistance increases the NEC’s capacity and raises the quality of election management.88 Importantly, better-managed elections have direct implications for election violence. When the election commission is more credible, the result that it announces is also more credible, which should diminish the loser’s incentives to challenge it. While even technically smooth elections are not a guarantee against violence, improving the capacity of the election commission helps raise the credibility of the process and announced result, thus leading to less post-vote violence. However, election assistance may not have a measurable effect on loser challenges because of a countervailing dynamic: making elections more credible should reduce challenges, but making legal dispute resolution more promising should increase (institutional) challenges. Election assistance also informs contestants about their legal recourse options in case they want to challenge results and helps improve electoral dispute resolution. If election assistance successfully strengthens dispute resolution procedures, losers are more likely to challenge peacefully through institutions rather than through street demonstration. International assistance often includes this element and has several strategies to improve the processing and fairness of complaint adjudication.89 Strengthening the relevant institutions (usually election commissions or electoral courts) to investigate and adjudicate election disputes should make these institutions more capable and trustworthy arbiters of disagreements. Disputes are more likely to be channeled through institutions when dispute resolution procedures are stronger. In contrast, when dispute resolution mechanisms are weak or not trusted, challengers are more likely to take their complaint into the streets rather than to the court or to the election commission hearing officer. Overall then, election assistance may increase information about and the quality of dispute resolution mechanisms, which would increase election challenges. Although that might strike some as an increase in conflict, peaceful protests channeled through institutions, as a legitimate way of expressing dissent in a democratic system, are a preferred alternative to street demonstrations, because they follow democratic procedures and are less likely to spiral into violence than street protests. Street protests may be violent or peaceful but even peaceful demonstrations may provoke clashes or repression by the winner or government/ security forces.

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Regardless of the effect of election assistance on challenges, their expected effect on violence is clear: it should be negative. Assistance should lower violence because the election commission is more capable and the election result is more credible than otherwise; if challenges occur, losers should be more likely to challenge peacefully (through institutions). Again, research in comparative politics underscores the importance of strong election commissions here. This research suggests that it is commission capacity, rather than independence, that matters. Sarah Birch shows that formal commission independence has no effect on election manipulation or contestation.90 Similarly, Pippa Norris argues that some earlier research had unduly emphasized legal status and shows that commission independence does not influence election integrity.91 That might be because de jure and de facto independence are different things but also because capacity—staff, resources, technical knowledge—is an important aspect, or at any rate a more important aspect. Norris suggests that “elections are flawed . . . where officials struggle with limited organizational capacity, poor technical expertise, inexperienced and poorly trained temporary staff, and/or inadequate financial resources.”92 Moreover, Opitz, Fjelde, and Höglund have shown that NEC capacity is important for violence: if results have been protested by opposition actors, election commissions can help reduce post-election violence.93 They find that what matters for post-election violence is not the legal independence (autonomy) but the ability of election commissions to address opposition concerns (capacity). To reiterate and expand on the previous explanation of what technical election assistance does, relevant activities include: (1) reforming the voter registry (purging ghost voters to reduce multiple voting and registering new voters to increase participation); (2) improving the quantity and quality of election material (ballots, ink, ballot boxes) and processing; (3) training election officials, such as officers and security forces, about their proper role; (4) improving mechanisms of dispute resolution and complaints processing; and (5) improving internal and external communication. The latter includes greater transparency about registration requirements and the location of polling places, which can decrease tensions on election-day and beyond because potential voters are not turned away from polling stations and therefore do not feel disenfranchised, especially after long commutes and waits at the polling station. Apart from institutional capacity and compliance, citizen knowledge is also key: if people understand the institution and its function, “it will motivate their support for the institution and their compliance with its rules.”94 Strategies to reduce a credibility deficit can be either top-down (improving administrative capacity) or bottom-up (improving citizens’ knowledge and respect for institutions).95 Thus, technical support can be effective from both directions because it

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      63

aims to affect institutions themselves as well as citizens’ perceptions about these institutions. At the most basic level, voter education informs citizens about their rights and responsibilities. Such activities include education about the voting process (polling booth procedures and locations, ID requirements) and the counting process (expectations about tabulation). As already mentioned, voter education can also clarify that initial results may change significantly as more regions submit their local results. While one candidate or party may lead in initial results, the leading candidate can change as results from different locations come in during subsequent hours and days, and these changes are not necessarily due to manipulation. In certain situations, voter education can detail recent reforms and explain how difficult manipulation has become. Youth and first-time voters are especially important to reach through civic education programs because young people are often hired as perpetrators for violence.96 One initiative in Guinea to bring the “peaceful consent” message to young voters entailed multiple soccer matches between party youths. In iterated tournaments, winning, losing, and (mostly) peaceful competition are part of the normal game.97 While one team may lose today, it may win in the future. This expectation underlines many sporting competitions, and in East Timor technical assistance organized iterative matches in the hopes that this message would transfer from competition in sports to politics.98 Playing and losing against different “teams” is not the end of the day but just a temporary state of affairs until the next competition. That is, voter education also encourages contestants to stay calm and often reminds citizens and parties that losing is just part of the democratic game, which they may win in future competitions. These efforts are aimed at increasing citizens’ trust in election management and in the announced result, so that questioning results becomes less viable. How does NEC credibility matter for post-vote violence? Administrative competence is critical because technical problems can be seen as politically motivated.99 For example, Kenya has long struggled with trust in its national election commission (currently called IEBC) because of capacity and credibility issues. When the lack of trust is coupled with irregular institutional behavior, greater distrust can lead to violence. Even though institutional reforms took place before the 2013 election, past actions of the commission made citizens wary of trusting the institution. After polling for the 2013 election, some people felt that “technical glitches have opened up the space for doubt. And that’s a problem in an environment where the perception of integrity is as important as the reality.”100 In other words, trust—the perception of electoral quality—is important to keep political competition peaceful. When elections and thus the resulting government are perceived as illegitimate, election results are more likely to spur popular protests101 and violence.

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In most advanced democracies, election institutions are perceived to have high integrity because they have a positive track record from past elections. That positive record generates trust and keeps violent contestation low; citizens regard these institutions as reliable. This reliability is lacking in many developing countries. If post-election violence breaks out because the election result is not perceived to be generated by a trustworthy institution, then one way to reduce violence is to increase the integrity of electoral institutions. This is the major purpose of technical assistance. Technical assistance should be associated with less post-election violence because such assistance can increase the capacity and credibility of the election commission, the credibility of the announced result, and thus loser’s consent. This leads to the final hypothesis: Hypothesis 2b. Technical election assistance should reduce post-election violence. The key point is that technical assistance works through a different mechanism than observation. Technical assistance activities do not provide information about fraud (and popular strength) but rather build the credibility of election commission and the result that it announces. Technical assistance may decrease or increase challenges, while observer condemnation should only increase challenges and violence.

Research Design To assess the influence of international election support on election violence intensity, I analyze national elections in Africa and Latin America from 1990 to 2012, as outlined at the end of the introduction. The sample consists of over 470 elections in seventy-four countries.102 The unit of analysis is the national election.103 The discussion in the introduction and chapter 1 has a number of implications for research design and the empirical analyses in subsequent chapters. It tells us something about which control variables should be included and which types of statistical models are appropriate. First, the description of the logic of violence and common drivers suggest which factors should be controlled for in the quantitative analyses. While the main interest is in assessing the influence of international election support on election violence, we need to account for differences between countries and elections. Context factors include country-level root causes and election-specific triggers, which are summarized in table 1.1. Building on this tabular summary and recalling the earlier discussion, the baseline model of election violence includes measures of democratic constraints (the number of institutional constraints on executive authority); a binary

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      65

indicator for whether the country experienced a civil war in the previous ten years; economic development in the form of (logged) GDP per capita; natural resources in the form of (logged) oil and gas income per capita; (logged) population size in millions; ethnic fractionalization to measure the degree of heterogeneity; poll type indicating legislative, executive, or general election; and past election violence (casualties during the previous election or pre-election period). Competition is proxied with incumbent running for the pre-election models and loser vote share in the post-election models. The post-vote models also include suspected election fraud, which—following most previous research—is a binary variable that indicates whether there were “significant concerns that elections will not be free and fair.”104 This measure, which has been widely used, relates to “domestic or international concern” about the quality of the election, including whether “elections were widely perceived to lack basic criteria for competitive elections.”105 The main advantage of this measure over others is that it is clearly pre-treatment to the observer assessment and post-election violence, as concerns need to be documented in sources prior to the election. Virtually all other measures in the literature are either based on information from election-day or explicitly include observer statements in the fraud measure. For example, fraud measures based on U.S. State Department Human Rights reports are not pre-treatment because the reports explicitly incorporate observer verdicts and are written up to a year after the election date.106 This list of factors is not exhaustive of every reason any country has ever experienced electoral violence. Building such a model could easily result in a much longer list, throwing in “everything but the kitchen sink,” which risks overfitting and multicollinearity. Instead, the goal is to account for the main alternative explanations and to avoid omitting variables that are important for the hypothesized relationship. An overview of the coding, data sources, and descriptive statistics for the variables can be found in appendix tables 1C.1 and 1C.2. I also use alternative measures for robustness tests, particularly for fraud and for ethnic fractionalization/excluded population. Second, the patterns of election violence and international support suggest certain types of statistical models. The outcome of interest in this book is election violence intensity. To measure this, I leverage original data, which disaggregate how many people were affected (killed or injured) and in which stage of the election. I collected these original data because available data were not suitable for the analyses in this book; this is detailed in appendix 1C. To collect original data on election violence—the number of people killed, injured, and so on—I used the printed version of Keesing’s Record of World Events. Keesing’s provides an objective monthly digest of political, economic, and diplomatic affairs around the world, written mostly by academics and journalists. It relies on a

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large variety of sources from around the world, including international media outlets, regional news outlets, country-specific news providers, radio broadcasts, and election-related sources.107 Keesing’s was chosen over alternative information sources because it draws on many in-country sources and NGO reports in addition to media outlets, provides consistent coverage over time, is reasonably detailed, and has been used in other prominent data collection efforts for election research108 and conflict research.109 Data were collected through human coding. Importantly, human coding (as opposed to machine coding) allows more clearly identifying whether violence was in fact election-related or not. Determining whether conflict had an electoral dimension is critical; otherwise data would pick up other types of ongoing conflict that just happen to also occur during an election cycle. For example, persistent terrorist violence perpetrated by the Tuareg in Mali was excluded from the coding unless it was clearly election-related. Casualties from a bombing occurring at polling centers are coded as election violence while those from bombing at market places are not. Comparing the new GEVD to other commonly used datasets reveals a high rate of agreement on both aggregate violence rates and on individual elections, which strengthens confidence in data reliability. These are detailed in appendix 1C. The advantage of the GEVD data over other sources is that GEVD provides additional information, not just whether violence happened but how intense it was. Empirically, this measure ranges from 0 to more than a thousand casualties, with about 24 percent of elections experiencing pre-election violence and about 13 percent experiencing post-election violence in Africa and Latin America. Since the outcome of interest or dependent variable in this book is violence intensity, measured by casualty counts, I use a count model. For count data, standard linear regression (OLS) tends to produce inefficient and biased estimates, so OLS models are not appropriate.110 Instead, count data should be analyzed with count models.111 Further, election-related casualty counts are not normally distributed (with equal deviation around the mean, like a bell curve). Instead, they are skewed to the right, with a long tail of larger outbreaks of violence with higher casualties. As figure 2.1 and the discussion of cases show, elections vary widely in their casualty counts: many stay peaceful (zero casualties) while violent ­elections often have casualties in the tens and lower hundreds, and some violent elections resulted in several hundred and at times over a thousand casualties. Indeed, descriptive statistics of the casualty count—detailed in appendix table 1C.2—show that both pre- and post-election casualties have a mean of about 14 casualties, while their standard deviations are much higher. Their variance exceeds the mean, indicating overdispersion. To handle the overdispersion in the dependent variable, the appropriate model choice is a negative binomial rather than a Poisson. Further, in terms of the specific count model, theory and statistical estimations indicate that zero-inflated negative binomial models are more a­ ppropriate

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      67

than a standard negative binomial model. Zero-inflated models assume that there are two data-generating processes, one process or set of factors generating peaceful elections and a second process for violence-prone elections generating violence intensity. Figures 1.1 and 1.2 show that some countries’ elections are always peaceful, while many countries experience variation in election violence over time. Context matters: elections in highly developed countries without a history of civil war are likely to stay peaceful (violence=0). In less developed countries with a legacy of civil war, elections have some nonzero risk of turning violent, and violence intensity is influenced by a number of factors. As discussed earlier in this chapter, more economic development can make countries less prone to violence (although high development does not assure peaceful elections in all cases and leaves violence variation in poor countries unexplained). In addition to development, case studies indicate that a history of civil war shapes a country’s risk of turmoil during elections.112 For example, elections in a number of Latin American countries tend to be peaceful—including Cuba, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Panama, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay—and these are also countries without a civil war history. In contrast, Colombia and Guatemala, which have a legacy of civil war, were more prone to election violence. The same trend holds for African countries such as Namibia, Botswana, Mauritius, Morocco (no civil war legacy, less election violence) on the one hand and Algeria, Ethiopia, the DRC, Senegal, Somalia, Uganda (civil war history, more prone to election violence) on the other hand. These two factors—development and conflict legacies—are also in line with recent work on the democratizing power of elections, which points to conflict history and economic development as important conditioning variables.113 Thus, peaceful elections (the zero inflation) are modeled as a function of development and conflict history. All context variables (domestic drivers listed in table 1.1) are included to model violence intensity. In addition to theory and empirical knowledge, the statistical estimations in subsequent chapters indicate that the chosen model is more appropriate than any of the alternatives. However, I use alternative models in robustness checks. All analyses account for the non-independence between elections within a country by clustering standard errors on the country level. It is also important to deal with selection or the non-random assignment of “treatment” (international support) to elections in these observational data.114 In an ideal world of causal inference, we would randomly assign elections to treatment or control (international support or not) to isolate the effect of the ­treatment on outcomes. In such an experimental design, we could be sure that there are no confounding factors—factors that influence both treatment and outcome. ­However, randomly assigning international support across a large ­number of elections is neither feasible nor ethical, as it would involve ­tremendous ­coordination across international organizations and countries and would also likely conflict

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with real-world policy pressures.115 Since we cannot conduct a field experiment for such a cross-country analysis, we must rely on observational data. Observational data have the drawback that subjects (countries) can self-select into treatment (international support). Such non-random assignment of treatment seems to be the case here because technical assistance tends to cluster in some regions and some countries, as shown in figures I.3 and I.4 and discussed in the introduction. Some countries receive the “treatment” of election support never, some always, and many countries every now and then. In fact, technical assistance and ­observation are not randomly distributed but are the result of interaction between the recipient country and implementing or donor organization. In earlier work116 I have shown that the provision of technical election assistance depends on the strategic interaction between donors and host countries and also that technical assistance is more likely in countries that are poor, have low capacity for election management, allow some competition (compared to autocracies), and show some domestic political will for reform. The UN provides technical election assistance in challenging contexts rather than in countries where elections are likely to be clean, credible, or peaceful. Such non-random assignment of subjects to treatment groups complicates our analysis because there might be confounding factors (unobserved components) that influence both treatment assignment (whether international support was provided) and outcome (violence intensity). Any empirical investigation about the influence of such interventions needs to take this non-random assignment into account. I address non-random treatment assignment in two ways: (1) testing for selection to assess which drivers make “treatment” (observation or technical assistance) more likely;117 and (2) using endogenous treatment effects models to account for these drivers of treatment and potential unobserved confounders. Endogenous treatment effects models estimate experimental-type causal effects from observational data in a potential outcomes framework.118 The idea here is that “treatment” is endogenous to certain observable factors and that there are possibly additional unobservables that affect both treatment and outcome, leading to spuriousness (a type of endogeneity). Endogenous treatment effects models allow treatment assignment to be endogenously correlated with the potential outcomes and thus relax the assumption of conditional independence. The models used here are two-stage models that estimate an average treatment effect of a binary endogenous treatment variable.119 The first stage models the treatment (international support) and the second stage models the outcome (violence intensity) while including residuals from the treatment model in the outcome model. This estimation accounts for non-random treatment assignment and gets us closer to recovering a causal effect from observational data.

CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY      69

Finally, a word is in order about the main explanatory variables used for observation and technical election assistance. The observation variables—observer presence and condemnation—are binary indicators drawn from the Nelda dataset,120 which is the most prominent dataset on this issue and has been frequently used in other studies, allowing for comparability. The variable on UN technical election assistance is also a binary indicator and is drawn from both previous work and original data collection. Data on such assistance from 1990 to 2003 comes from von Borzyskowski (2016), which itself relies on the UN-internal compilation of assistance projects published in Ludwig (2004a). These data are supplemented—mainly for 2004–2012—with original data on UN technical election assistance projects. These additional data were compiled from the UN Secretary General’s biennial reports on election assistance and the UN’s websites for election assistance.121 Comparing these original data to a similar data collection effort by Anna Lührmann shows high rates of agreement, which increases confidence in the reliability of this measure.122 The appendix to this chapter provides more information on the data sources, coding procedures, and reliability. Although it would be desirable to use more fine-grained data on the budget or size of observer groups and technical election assistance missions, such data is not consistently available.123 This is why cross-national work so far has relied on binary indicators. The measure of technical assistance provision is focused on the UN because the UN has a “near monopoly in the area,” making it the “central player” and the “largest multinational provider” of technical election assistance worldwide.124 While many bilateral and multilateral donors include a component of election assistance in their portfolios, many donors’ projects are channeled through or implemented by the UN. For example, the EU channels much of its assistance through the UNDP but conducts its own observer missions. In addition to the number of elections assisted, the UN also exceeds any other provider in terms of the budget and scope of its assistance activities. For example, paying for a substantial portion of a country’s national election budget to increase capacity or setting up an entirely new voter register to increase transparency are activities that are usually outside the realm of possibilities of other providers. That is, the UN is the major provider both in terms of the number and the nature of technical election assistance projects. In principle it would be desirable to also account for the many smaller (in terms of budget, staff, projects) implementing organizations (such as IFES) that have been active in the field, but that is precluded by lack of systematic reporting. This is not for lack of data collection effort, as other experts in the field have run into the same data limitations.125 Currently available budget measures of “election aid” (from USAID, OECD, AidData, among others) do not consistently distinguish between technical assistance and election observation. Further, they often lump both of these together

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with other potential election-related projects for such things as political party support (as in the USAID measure). Using such aggregate budget figures would make it impossible to distinguish the proposed effect of observation from the effect of technical assistance (and from other aid effects) or to examine whether different types of support may point in different directions. Further, none of the budget measures include the full set of UN assistance projects documented on the UN websites. Using binary variables on the key providers is in line with virtually all previous cross-national research and thus allows comparability.

2 SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT International Support and Pre-Election Violence

Elections are meant to ensure a peaceful and meaningful transfer of power, but in many countries campaign violence is a “strategic option in the competition for elected office.”1 Pre-election violence is used as a tool to influence vote choice and turnout, thereby shaping the election outcome. In particular, political elites use campaign violence to shape the behavior of potential candidates and voters. Pre-election violence is more frequent than post-election violence. Campaign violence has accompanied 23 percent of elections, whereas post-election violence has accompanied “only” 13 percent of elections in Latin America and Africa since 1990, as shown in chapter 1. Why are some election campaigns more violent than others? This chapter empirically tests the argument detailed in chapter 1: that external election support can reduce violence before elections. Two forms of IO election support—observation and technical assistance—can shape the electoral environment by increasing election credibility. In particular, observation can raise the accountability of potential perpetrators by making it more likely that manipulation is detected and publicized. This externally generated, additional cost for using violence can change the cost-benefit calculation of perpetrators and help deter them from using violence in the campaigning period. Technical assistance can increase the election commission’s capacity to run a smooth election and manage violence by removing triggers of conflict and mitigating

71

72       CHAPTER 2

tensions where they occur. The argument tested here is whether election support reduces pre-election violence (Hypotheses 1a and 1b).

Quantitative Tests

10 0

5

Frequency

60

65

I test the argument about campaign violence in a statistical analysis of more than four hundred elections in seventy countries in Latin America and Africa from 1990 to 2012. The unit of analysis is the national election. For the statistical analyses in this chapter, the outcome of interest is campaign violence, measured as Pre-election casualties in the six months up to and including election-day. This variable is sourced from an original data collection, the Global Election Violence Dataset, which is detailed in chapter 1 and appendix 1C. The variable ranges from 0 to 980 people harmed per election. The average number of casualties per election is 14, with a standard deviation of 74. The standard deviation far exceeds the mean, indicating that this variable is overdispersed. Figure 2.1 illustrates wide variation in violence intensity. In about half of the elections with campaign ­violence, 1 to 10 people were killed or injured, with a long skew with

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Pre−election casualties FIGURE 2.1.  Distribution of campaign violence (omitting elections with zero casualties)

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      73

many elections that are much more violent. On the high end, as many as 980 people were killed or injured in South Africa 1994; other high-end cases include Malawi 1992 and Colombia 1990. Since the dependent variable—Pre-election casualties—is a count of casualties, I use a count model. To handle the overdispersion in the dependent variable (variance exceeds the mean), the appropriate model choice is a negative binomial rather than a Poisson. Theory and statistical estimations indicate that a zero-inflated negative binomial model is appropriate. As outlined at the end of chapter 1, some countries and elections have essentially zero chance of turning violent, and a country’s risk of turmoil during elections is shaped by economic development and conflict history.2 Context matters: elections in highly developed countries without a history of civil war are likely to stay peaceful (violence=0). In more conflict-prone contexts, elections have some nonzero risk of turning violent, and violence intensity is influenced by several factors as detailed in chapter 1. In addition to theory and empirical knowledge, the statistical estimations below indicate that the chosen model is more appropriate than any of the alternatives. I return to this issue in the result discussion below.3 To evaluate whether international election support can reduce campaign violence, I use three independent variable measures. The variable Observation indicates whether any reputable election observer organization was present. The variable Technical election assistance indicates whether the United Nations provided technical assistance. Of the national elections in this sample, 65 percent had observation and 34 percent had technical assistance. This difference in the prevalence of observation and technical support is fairly comparable to other regions and times.4 The third variable, Observation and/or technical assistance, indicates whether neither was provided (0), either observation or technical assistance was provided (1), or both were present (2). In this sample, 43 percent of elections had one form of election support and 25 percent of elections had both forms of election support. I also include a number of control variables to account for potential confounders and other drivers of pre-election violence. Control variables follow the baseline model of election violence as introduced in chapter 1, specifically table 1.1. To reiterate, this baseline model of election violence includes country-level root causes and election-specific characteristics. For pre-election violence, the control variables are Executive constraints, Post-conflict, Economic development, Natural resources, Population size, Ethnic fractionalization, Incumbent running, Poll type, and Past election violence. To mitigate endogeneity, all control variables are lagged by one year except for the election-specific variables (Poll type, I­ ncumbent ­running). Descriptive statistics of all variables and their data sources are detailed

74

Past election violence

Incumbent running

Poll type

Population size

Ethnic fractionalization

Natural resources

Economic development

Post-conflict

Executive constraints

Observation and/or technical assistance

Technical election assistance

Observation

Predicting ­violence intensity (count)

−0.434*** (0.136) −1.066 (0.738) 0.390 (0.476) −0.000 (0.059) −1.733 (1.263) 1.088*** (0.182) −0.051 (0.320) 0.056 (0.416) 0.454* (0.255)

−1.178*** (0.367)

(1)

−0.458*** (0.157) 0.011 (0.818) 0.443 (0.396) −0.020 (0.061) −0.745 (1.757) 1.115*** (0.199) −0.354 (0.359) 0.022 (0.489) 0.508 (0.483)

−0.052 (0.552)

(2)

−0.427*** (0.136) −1.159 (0.799) 0.360 (0.447) 0.000 (0.058) −1.848 (1.276) 1.084*** (0.180) −0.018 (0.333) 0.169 (0.418) 0.351 (0.324)

−1.168*** (0.369) −0.308 (0.539)

(3)

LATIN AMERICA AND AFRICA

TABLE 2.1  Effect of international election support on pre-election violence

−0.819*** (0.303) −0.433*** (0.131) −1.297 (0.817) 0.318 (0.400) −0.002 (0.057) −2.068 (1.315) 1.083*** (0.176) −0.033 (0.322) 0.392 (0.430) 0.133 (0.285)

(4)

−0.525*** (0.135) −1.741** (0.724) 0.689 (0.563) −0.017 (0.063) −2.593* (1.375) 1.107*** (0.204) −0.039 (0.441) 0.360 (0.692) 0.382 (0.307)

−1.238** (0.497)

(5)

−0.531*** (0.137) −1.871** (0.788) 0.642 (0.536) −0.014 (0.060) −2.630** (1.191) 1.078*** (0.205) −0.418 (0.424) 0.888 (0.697) −0.283 (0.360)

−0.575 (0.598)

(6)

AFRICA

−0.483*** (0.144) −1.974** (0.786) 0.598 (0.530) −0.008 (0.060) −2.713** (1.322) 1.102*** (0.194) 0.103 (0.459) 0.520 (0.684) 0.169 (0.341)

−1.225** (0.497) −0.703 (0.597)

(7)

−0.976** (0.392) −0.470*** (0.132) −2.113*** (0.740) 0.555 (0.516) −0.007 (0.059) −2.860** (1.278) 1.100*** (0.190) 0.072 (0.463) 0.679 (0.646) 0.019 (0.311)

(8)

75

2.216*** (0.259) 403 72 1181.93 1241.91 −575.96

0.496 (0.468)

−1.887 (1.196)

2.648*** (0.169) 436 72 1305.23 1366.40 −637.62

2.901* (1.584)

0.162 (1.983)

2.135*** (0.288) 403 72 1182.93 1242.92 −576.47

0.430 (0.339)

0.467 (0.406) 2.169*** (0.297) 403 72 1183.64 1247.63 −575.82

−1.865* (0.984)

−1.855* (1.055)

2.183*** (0.395) 260 48 760.21 813.62 −365.10

0.434 (0.346)

−2.576 (2.796)

2.293*** (0.180) 278 48 835.69 890.10 −402.84

0.509 (0.351)

−32.925*** (2.918)

2.060*** (0.517) 260 48 761.22 818.19 −364.61

0.386 (0.335)

−2.328 (2.198)

2.057*** (0.502) 260 48 759.52 812.93 −364.76

0.373 (0.318)

−2.464 (2.420)

Notes: The table reports estimates from count models (zero-inflated negative binomial models). The dependent variable is the count of election-related casualties in the six months before and including election-day. The unit of observation is the national election. Robust standard errors are clustered on country. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels.

Observations Clusters AIC BIC LL

Log α

Economic development

Predicting zero violence Post-conflict

76       CHAPTER 2

in appendix tables 1C.1 and 1C.2. The standard errors are clustered by country to account for the lack of independence between elections within states. S TAT I S T I C A L R E S U LTS

The results provide strong support for the argument that international election support can reduce campaign violence. Table 2.1 presents the coefficient estimates from zero-inflated negative binomial models predicting pre-election violence. Each column shows the baseline model to predict violence intensity, along with a parsimonious model to predict zero violence. Columns 1 through 4 use data on Latin America and Africa, and columns 5 through 8 use data on Africa only. Columns 1 and 5 show the estimated effect of observation, columns 2 and 6 show the estimated effect of technical assistance, columns 3 and 7 include both explanatory variables and essentially set up a horse race between them, and columns 4 and 8 show the effect of having none, either, or both support types.5 As expected, the estimated coefficients on the election support variables are negative in all models of table 2.1. This indicates that election support and violence intensity are negatively correlated. Moreover, the coefficients on observation are highly statistically significant (p < 0.05), indicating that these relationships are unlikely to be due to chance alone. Observed elections tend to experience less campaign violence. The substantive change is also meaningful. The magnitude of the observer effect is estimated from model 3 for a typical case in the data, setting all other variables to their means. For the more than four hundred elections included in this analysis, the predicted number of casualties is about twelve when election observation is absent and about four when it is present. International election observation is associated with approximately eight fewer people killed or injured, all else being equal. To put this in perspective, recall that the average number of people harmed is fourteen in the full set of elections. Expressed differently, the effect is approximately a 11 percent change in the standard deviation of campaign violence. The exact substantive magnitude should not be overemphasized, as statistical estimates are accompanied by uncertainty and can vary by estimation method and model specification. What is important to note is that the number of casualties tends to be lower when observer groups are present than when they are absent. The results in table 2.1 provide strong evidence in favor of Hypothesis 1a: internationally observed elections tend to have less campaign violence. Technical assistance is also negatively associated with campaign violence, but this correlation does not reach statistical significance in this analysis. While there might be cases in which technical support has helped reduce campaign violence, the average effect across elections does not appear sufficiently large to be cer-

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      77

tain of this relationship based on this analysis. It is, of course, possible that the conflict-reducing effect is “hidden” because the analysis in table 2.1 does not account for selection, which is the issue of non-random treatment where more problematic elections are more likely to receive technical election assistance. I return to the importance of technical assistance in the selection models below and in the case studies. There seems to be some added value in having both types of election support. Column 4 in table 2.1 shows that campaign violence is significantly reduced when both support types are provided. With both types of election support, campaign violence is significantly lower than when only one or neither is provided. In terms of the substantive magnitude, the presence of both support types is associated with ten fewer casualties during the campaigning period. The predicted number of casualties is twelve without any international election support; it is six casualties with either observation or technical assistance, and two casualties with both types of international election support. To test the robustness of this violence-reducing effect of election support, I run several follow-on analyses. First, I check that this effect also exists for Africa alone. I do this because one previous study on observation and campaign violence found the opposite effect. Ursula Daxecker finds that observation increases the number of conflict events from 0.3 to 0.9 in the three-month campaigning period excluding election-day, which is an increase of about half a conflict event per election.6 This previous study finds no significant correlation between observation and conflict incidents on election-day itself. Thus, in that study, observation is found to be positively related to pre-election violence, in contrast to the findings here. The difference in our findings—increase of half a conflict event vs. reduction by eight casualties—may be due to a difference in sample, estimation, model specification, or measure. In the prior study, the timeframe is shorter (a three- instead of a six-month window, and until 2009 instead of until 2012) and the number of countries is smaller, pertaining to Africa alone. I thus re-run the analysis (models 1–4) but restrict the sample to Africa. The results are shown in columns 5–8. Note that restricting the analysis to a single region reduces the number of observations from over 400 elections for both Africa and Latin America to 260 elections in Africa. However, the results are highly consistent. The coefficient on observation is again negative, statistically significant, and of similar substantive magnitude (eight fewer casualties). The reinforcing effect of having both types of support also holds when we focus on African elections. The observation and joint support effects are also robust to using the same estimator as in the previous study (negative binomial), although the substantive magnitude is somewhat smaller (five and four casualties, r­ espectively). The consistency suggests that the difference in our findings might be due to the different out-

78       CHAPTER 2

come measures: event counts vs. casualty counts.7 The event counts are weighted equally, regardless of casualties. That is, one event of intimidation counts the same as several fatalities. The substantive interest in this book, however, is the number of people directly affected by violence. The second robustness check is about model choice. These follow-on analyses confirm that the chosen model is appropriate. The estimate of the overdispersion coefficient, α, is significantly different from zero in all models. This indicates that a negative binomial model is indeed more appropriate than a Poisson model. Further, diagnostic tests comparing ordinary and zero-inflated negative binomial models indicate that the zero-inflated negative binomial models are preferred. I have replicated each of the eight models in table 2.1 with negative binomial models, comparing the model fit statistic (AIC) between the two estimation methods, resulting in eight test statistic comparisons.8 In all of the eight AIC comparisons, the zero-inflated estimation is preferred over the alternative (regular negative binomial). Thus diagnostic tests confirm that the chosen statistical model is indeed appropriate and preferred over alternatives.9 The results are also robust to using hurdle models, that is, logit models paired with negative binomial models. In fact, the negative coefficient of technical assistance is weakly significant in one of the hurdle models. Further, I replaced the ethnic fractionalization measure with the percentage of the excluded population, which yields similar results.10 Alternative explanations based on domestic drivers of election violence are accounted for in the main analysis. Table 2.1 accounts for other common drivers of campaign violence. Even controlling for these domestic characteristics, election support has an additional effect on campaign violence. Among those control variables, most are in line with expectations. For example, peaceful elections (violence=0) are somewhat less likely when the country has experienced a civil war in the previous ten years. Violence intensity is significantly higher in more populous countries and lower in countries with more constraints on political elites, which is in line with expectations and the base model of violence proposed in chapter 1. Perhaps surprisingly, the coefficients on economic development are insignificant in almost all models. Only in one model is the coefficient weakly significant, suggesting that more developed countries are more likely to have nonviolent election campaigns. This null result for economic development casts some doubt on arguments made by Paul Collier that elections in poor countries cause violence.11 This aligns with the visual impression from figure I.1 in the introduction, which shows wide variation in casualty numbers below Collier’s threshold of US$2,700 and a portion of violent elections in more developed countries.

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      79

Alternative Explanation: Selection? The results indicate that international election support is associated with USS pre-election violence. Arguably the most important alternative explanation for lower violence is selection. Observer groups and UN technical election assistance might simply go to the easy, more peaceful elections. If this were the case, we would find an association between election support and less campaign violence, but the result would be due to selection rather than an independent effect. If the UN or observer groups attended elections where peace is likely to last, then these elections would be peaceful anyway, regardless of international involvement. At its core, this involves the issue of non-random treatment. Among the two major election support types, the selection issue might be less pronounced for observation than for UN assistance. Election observation has become a norm, meaning that a large majority of countries in the developing world have election observation during their elections.12 In Latin America and Africa since 1990, two-thirds of elections have been observed but only one-third of elections have received technical election assistance. While it has become a norm for election observers to be invited and to attend, as Hyde shows in her seminal study, this is not the case for UN technical assistance.13 As noted in the previous chapter and detailed elsewhere,14 selection issues—demand and supply—are critical in international election support and more pervasive for technical election assistance. Some governments clearly resist technical election assistance and request it never or rarely, and the UN itself does not supply assistance to every requesting government, taking into account the domestic political will as well as its own budget constraints. Most countries have had observers at most of their elections. The same is not true for technical assistance. Countries that have not received technical election assistance before 2012 include Botswana, Cape Verde, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Morocco, Namibia, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Further, countries that have had technical assistance at all elections (1990–2012) are not exactly exemplars of stability. To the contrary, regular recipients of technical election assistance include Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Angola, and Burundi. Countries with technical assistance at many elections include Haiti, Mozambique, and Guyana. It stands to reason that the two groups of countries—those that have assistance rarely/never or frequently/always—differ in some respects. If the countries with frequent UN election assistance would be generally more peaceful, then we would wrongly attribute the lack of violence to UN actions. Yet many of the frequent recipients—such as Haiti, the DRC, and Somalia—are not generally peaceful places. While this speaks against selection concerns and for the validity of the argument, the selection dynamics warrant a deeper and more systematic analysis.

80       CHAPTER 2

To investigate more systematically whether observation or technical assistance selects into less violent elections, I analyze where international election support is deployed. These models follow prior research on the selection of observation and technical assistance. Hyde models the presence of observation as a function of Opposition competition, Uncertain election, Economic development (pc GDP) and Economic wealth (GDP), Year, and whether any Previous election was observed.15 Opposition competition is coded 1 when all of the following hold: opposition parties are legal, allowed, and there is a choice of candidates on the ballot. Almost all elections have opposition competition, except for Cuba and Tanzania in 1990. Uncertain election is coded 1 when any of the following apply: it is the first multi-party election, the previous election was suspended, or the country is ruled by a transitional government. About one quarter of the elections are uncertain. Based on my prior research,16 the presence of UN technical election assistance is modeled as a function of Regime type (autocracy, hybrid, advanced democracy), Post-conflict, Poll type, UN peacekeeping, as well as Opposition competition, Uncertain election, and Economic development. As before, I cluster standard errors on country to account for non-independence of elections within the same country. Since the dependent variable—presence of election assistance—is binary, I use logit models. Table 2.2 reports results from the analysis of selection of observation and technical election assistance. Columns 1 through 4 show models of observation and columns 5 through 8 show models of technical election assistance. Odd-numbered columns (1, 3, 5, 7) show parsimonious models based on prior research as described above. Even-numbered columns (2, 4, 6, 8) show fully saturated models that include the variables from the other estimation. The fully saturated models of observation (columns 2 and 4) also include the variables from the technical assistance models, and the fully saturated models of technical assistance (columns 6 and 8) also include variables from observation. These more comprehensive models ensure that all major drivers are accounted for. On top of these base models predicting international election support, I add the variable of interest: Pre-election casualties, which is the (logged) number of election-related casualties in the six months before and including election-day. I also include a binary variable for Any election casualties, which indicates whether any election-related casualties occurred for six months before and three months after the election. This variable is included because aid might select into elections based on overall expected violence rather than violence specific to the campaigning period. Before proceeding with the interpretation of results, note that the predictors from the baseline model all point in the expected direction, which increases confidence in the results. Election support is more likely to be provided when elections are uncertain, that is, when the elections are the first multi-party elec-

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      81

tions, were previously suspended, or are organized by a transitional government. In addition, election support is more likely to be provided when elections are presidential or general elections, are more recent, or held in less developed or poorer countries. Election support is less likely to be provided in autocracies than in hybrid/middling regimes that fall short of consolidated democracy. Further, UN peacekeeping is an important predictor for both types of support. This is an important side finding for researchers interested in modeling where observers go and indicates that current models of observation should be supplemented with whether peacekeepers were in the country. Whether previous elections have been observed in this country also drives current observation but not technical assistance. All of these relationships are in line with previous research. To those, the analysis adds two alternative measures of election violence as predictors of election support in order to test for selection. The results in table 2.2 do not provide empirical support for the concern that aid selects into less violent elections. To the contrary: if anything, there is some indication that support—specifically UN technical assistance—tends to go to more violent elections. The coefficient on Pre-election casualties is statistically insignificant throughout all models, indicating that there is not a strong relationship between the intensity of pre-vote violence and where support is provided. The coefficient on Any election casualties is also insignificant for observation but positive and weakly significant for technical assistance in column 8 of table 2.2. This means that elections with UN election assistance are somewhat more prone to violence. In theory, this could be the result of two processes: either the UN selects into more violent elections (the argument here) or the UN makes elections more violent. The latter would be a damning finding for foreign election aid and would contradict much of what we think we know about the kinds of places where the UN is likely to go. In fact, the UN provides technical assistance to those countries where it is needed—countries that lack strong election commissions and civil society, and at times they even enter a country in order to curb expected violence.17 It is more plausible that technical election assistance missions are sent to the places where they are most needed. Therefore, the positive correlation between UN election assistance and election violence is likely due to selection into violent places. Borrowing an analogy from Page Fortna’s work on UN peacekeeping, “crime rates are probably highest in neighborhoods with the most cops on the street.” This is not because police cause crime but because police “are put in place in response to the likelihood of crime.”18 In any event, selection needs to be taken into account when modeling the effect of technical support on campaign violence. These circumstances lead me to develop a more sophisticated statistical strategy that accounts for potential selection directly.

82

Post-conflict

Regime Type: Advanced democracy

Regime Type: Autocracy

Poll type

Year

Economic development

Economic wealth

Previously observed

Uncertain election

Opposition competition

Any election casualties

Pre-election casualties (logged)

(1)

1.631 (1.012) 0.990*** (0.357) 1.155*** (0.352) −0.031 (0.076) −0.306** (0.138) 0.036 (0.022)

−0.049 (0.086)

1.043 (0.899) 1.036*** (0.393) 1.077*** (0.373) −0.145* (0.079) −0.166 (0.139) 0.027 (0.024) 0.575*** (0.134) −0.626* (0.352) 0.058 (0.319) 0.413*

−0.002 (0.083)

(2)

0.167 (0.255) 1.563 (1.005) 0.957*** (0.361) 1.122*** (0.342) −0.050 (0.076) −0.287** (0.139) 0.040* (0.022)

(3)

OUTCOME: ELECTION OBSERVATION

0.219 (0.259) 0.978 (0.888) 1.010** (0.395) 1.051*** (0.366) −0.159** (0.078) −0.154 (0.141) 0.030 (0.024) 0.581*** (0.132) −0.621* (0.348) 0.080 (0.323) 0.417*

(4)

(5)

0.204 (0.126) −1.627*** (0.494) 0.035 (0.250) −0.277

−0.553*** (0.125)

−0.159 (1.038) 0.635** (0.302)

−0.036 (0.086)

TABLE 2.2  Testing for selection of international election support into less violent elections

−0.058 (0.863) 0.816** (0.317) −0.523 (0.346) −0.197** (0.096) −0.568*** (0.136) 0.128*** (0.029) 0.236* (0.121) −1.228** (0.527) 0.293 (0.250) −0.027

0.105 (0.095)

(6)

0.205 (0.126) −1.636*** (0.487) 0.057 (0.255) −0.288

−0.558*** (0.128)

0.145 (0.244) −0.229 (1.034) 0.626** (0.302)

(7)

OUTCOME: TECHNICAL ELECTION ASSISTANCE

0.491* (0.282) −0.128 (0.860) 0.764** (0.311) −0.562 (0.346) −0.210** (0.090) −0.551*** (0.130) 0.129*** (0.029) 0.235* (0.121) −1.226** (0.534) 0.306 (0.249) −0.008

(8)

83

−248.75

429 71 −235.26

429 71

(0.233) 1.116** (0.531)

−248.72

429 71 −234.92

429 71

(0.231) 1.127** (0.531)

−258.68

467 72

(0.246) 1.528*** (0.444)

−235.13

460 71

(0.249) 1.180** (0.474)

−258.59

467 72

(0.253) 1.490*** (0.449)

−233.99

460 71

(0.254) 1.103** (0.472)

Notes: The table reports estimates from logit models. The dependent variable is the presence of observation (models 1–4) and the presence of technical election assistance (models 5–8). For regime type, the excluded baseline category is hybrid regimes. The unit of observation is the national election. Robust standard errors are clustered on country. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels.

LL

Observations Clusters

UN peacekeeping

84       CHAPTER 2

To more thoroughly account for non-random treatment—which seems to apply for technical assistance—I replicate the main analysis (models 1 through 3 in table 2.1) in a two-stage setup. The first stage predicts election support, and the second stage predicts pre-election violence but accounts for non-random treatment. As detailed toward the end of the previous chapter, I use treatment effect models to estimate an average treatment effect in a linear regression augmented with a binary endogenous treatment variable (Observation and Technical assistance, respectively).19 The results of this analysis are in table 2.3. Columns 1 and 2 examine observation with a parsimonious and a fully saturated model; columns 3 and 4 examine technical support with a parsimonious and a fully saturated model. Column 5 further adds observation as a control variable.20 The results of the selection stage of table 2.3 are in line with table 2.2: uncertain elections in poorer and less developed countries and with peacekeepers are significantly more likely to receive both types of election support; autocracies are significantly less likely to request and receive technical election assistance. The results in table 2.3 highlight two important findings. First, in terms of modeling pre-election violence, there is no selection for observation but there is selection for technical assistance. The relevant test is the Wald test of independent equations (ρ = 0) at the bottom of table 2.3, meaning whether the two processes—modeling (1) election support and (2) the effect of this support on campaign violence—are linked. In the case of observation, the relevant test statistic indicates that these two processes are independent; the probability of χ2 is far from statistical significance, as indicated by the large p-values (0.94, 0.56). These large p-values mean that we cannot reject the null hypotheses that these are independent processes. Thus for observation, the straightforward (single-stage) models in table 2.1 are appropriate. Interpretation about the effect of observation should be based on table 2.1. Second, the provision of technical assistance and its effect on campaign violence are linked, so interpretation about the effect of technical assistance should be based on table 2.3 instead of table 2.1. In columns 4 and 5 of table 2.3, the relevant test (the Wald test of independent equations) yields a statistically significant result, with the probability of the chi-square test statistic estimated at 0.00.21 This means we reject the null hypothesis that these two processes are independent of each other. This is in line with the finding from table 2.2: UN assistance tends to select into more conflict-prone environments rather than smooth and peaceful elections. This selection of the UN into more conflict-prone environments suggests two things. First, it biases against finding a violence-reducing effect of the UN. Estimations of the effect of technical assistance on campaign violence should account for

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      85

the selection of technical assistance into more conflict-prone elections. Table 2.3 does that and provides evidence that technical support has a violence-reducing effect once we account for selection. In models 4 and 5 of table 2.3, technical assistance is significantly associated with less campaign violence. Substantively, these analyses support the argument that UN technical election assistance has a violence-reducing effect. This supports Hypothesis 1b. This effect exists even though the UN tends to operate under difficult conditions (selecting into more violence-prone elections). That is, despite going to violence-prone places, technical assistance still manages to reduce campaign violence. Second, it means that an analysis of violence as a binary outcome (instead of violence intensity as used here) would likely indicate that the UN is associated with more violence, leaving unclear whether that is due to selection or an actual effect. In sum, the quantitative analyses provide strong support for the argument that international election support can reduce campaign violence (Hypotheses 1a and 1b from chapter 1). Observer groups do not select into more or less violent elections, and the practice of observing elections has become widespread. Observed elections tend to have lower pre-election violence. UN technical assistance is non-random; it tends to select into more conflict-prone elections. Once we account for that selection into certain types of elections, technical assistance is associated with reduced campaign violence. These indications remain somewhat tentative, as there is no perfect statistical model to estimate these relationships. To strengthen the evidence and trace the processes underlying these relationships in more detail, the remainder of this chapter turns to case material.

Illustrative Cases The quantitative evidence presented above supports the argument that ­international election support (observation and technical assistance) can reduce campaign violence. This section shifts to qualitative evidence for two purposes. First, I illustrate that these relationships are not just artifacts of broad cross-country analyses but also hold within individual countries over time. Second, I detail some of the specific activities undertaken by international actors, how these increase accountability and capacity and thus help contribute to less campaign violence. This sheds light on causal mechanisms that are often difficult to trace in statistical studies. Before proceeding, a word of caution is in order. Fraud and violence are illicit activities. Hence, political elites seldom go on public record to explain why they attacked or killed someone. We can infer the underlying motivation from the

86

Uncertain election

Opposition competition

Selection model predicting international election support

Past election violence

Incumbent running

Poll type

Population size

Ethnic fractionalization

Natural resources

0.785 (0.579) 0.684*** (0.259)

−0.027 (0.073) 0.003 (0.014) −0.417 (0.303) 0.170*** (0.057) −0.091 (0.078) 0.076 (0.159) 0.355** (0.138)

Economic development

Post-conflict

−0.055 (0.039) 0.122 (0.149)

−0.042 (0.407)

Executive constraints

Technical election assistance

Observation

Main model predicting violence

(1)

0.385 (0.523) 0.706** (0.284)

−0.055 (0.079) 0.004 (0.014) −0.402 (0.307) 0.161*** (0.058) −0.059 (0.093) 0.067 (0.159) 0.348** (0.138)

−0.050 (0.041) 0.152 (0.175)

−0.327 (0.506)

(2)

ENDOGENOUS TREATMENT: OBSERVATION

−0.371 (0.592) 0.458** (0.216)

−0.139 (0.103) 0.011 (0.014) −0.382 (0.278) 0.173*** (0.058) −0.053 (0.077) 0.038 (0.149) 0.328** (0.166)

−0.656 (0.416) −0.033 (0.043) 0.145 (0.141)

(3)

−0.287 (0.390) 0.415** (0.200)

−0.179* (0.093) 0.009 (0.014) −0.340 (0.272) 0.158*** (0.060) −0.040 (0.083) 0.065 (0.151) 0.261 (0.166)

−1.093*** (0.348) −0.024 (0.042) 0.161 (0.152)

(4)

ENDOGENOUS TREATMENT: TECHNICAL ELECTION ASSISTANCE

TABLE 2.3  Effect of international election support on campaign violence, accounting for potential selection

−0.268 (0.417) 0.423** (0.215)

−0.138* (0.082) 0.004 (0.014) −0.382 (0.293) 0.152*** (0.059) −0.054 (0.082) 0.107 (0.153) 0.286** (0.141)

−0.007 (0.130) −0.944*** (0.323) −0.031 (0.039) 0.121 (0.145)

(5)

87

−0.01 0.94 397 71 −881.36

−0.178** (0.089) −0.021 (0.046) 0.846*** (0.248) 0.020 (0.018)

0.14 0.56 397 71 −868.00

−0.111 (0.090) −0.089* (0.046) 0.774*** (0.273) 0.019 (0.020) 0.352*** (0.082) −0.400* (0.210) 0.027 (0.198) 0.267* (0.146) 0.986*** (0.239) 0.26 0.11 432 72 −950.62

0.094 (0.084) −1.034*** (0.277) 0.061 (0.157) −0.192 (0.166) 0.948*** (0.313)

−0.347*** (0.080)

0.50 0.00 426 71 −915.63

−0.341*** (0.085) −0.127** (0.056) −0.449** (0.183) 0.079*** (0.015) 0.129 (0.079) −0.747*** (0.277) 0.241 (0.149) −0.002 (0.162) 0.762** (0.305) 0.47 0.00 397 71 −850.79

−0.314*** (0.082) −0.130** (0.053) −0.412** (0.196) 0.072*** (0.015) 0.157* (0.081) −0.719** (0.291) 0.199 (0.151) 0.006 (0.160) 0.759** (0.310)

Notes: The table reports estimates from treatment effects models, which are linear regressions with an endogenous binary treatment variable in the first stage. The endogenous treatment variables are observation (in models 1–2) and technical assistance (in models 3–5). The dependent variable is pre-election violence, i.e., the logged number of election-related casualties in the six months before and including election-day. For regime type, the excluded baseline category is hybrid regimes. The unit of observation is the national election. Robust standard errors are clustered on country. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels.

Rho Wald test of independent equations (ρ = 0), Pr(χ2) Observations Clusters LL

UN peacekeeping

Post-conflict

Regime Type: Advanced democracy

Regime Type: Autocracy

Poll type

Year

Previously observed

Economic wealth

Economic development

88       CHAPTER 2

target, timing, and location of events as well as accounts from witnesses, but it is rare for a political candidate to readily admit to sending thugs to attack an opponent or an opponent’s supporters. It is even more challenging to document the causal link between the absence of violent actions and the deterrent power of interventions. That is because political elites rarely publicly admit that they were deterred from illicit actions by the domestic or international constraints placed upon them. As Thomas Carothers, an expert on democracy support, noted: Out of fear of being caught by foreign observers, political authorities may abandon plans to rig elections. Of course, few foreign officials would readily acknowledge having had such plans, making it hard to measure precisely the deterrent effect of electoral observation. Yet that effect should not be underestimated.22 Political elites rarely acknowledge manipulation or—more importantly—the fact of being deterred from manipulation. Conclusively proving changes in intention or motivation is difficult when subjects have strong reasons not to reveal or misrepresent their intentions. We can, however, still make inferences based on observed behavior and circumstantial evidence. In the remainder of this chapter, I document the observation-violence link across elections within single countries and then turn to specific support activities and how they have helped reduce campaign violence. T R A C I N G    T H E    O B S E R VAT I O N - V I O L E N C E    L I N K    W I T H I N ­C O UN T RI ES

While the quantitative results above uncover general patterns and support the violence-reducing effect of observation and technical assistance in a broad range of countries, this section illustrates that individual countries experience this ­variation over time. Focusing on one individual country allows us to hold many contextual factors constant, including the root causes of violence. Several countries have experienced campaign violence in one or more elections that were not observed but experienced substantially reduced or even no campaign violence in subsequent elections that were observed; examples include Benin, Malawi, and Ghana. In each country, elections without international observation were marred by substantial pre-election violence. In Benin, one person was killed and fifteen more were injured during voting at the unobserved 1991 presidential election.23 In Malawi, forty people were killed and several hundred more were injured during the unobserved 1992 election when security forces opened fire on anti-government, pro-democracy protesters in the campaigning period. Similarly, in Ghana’s unobserved 2000 election, eleven people were killed on election-day. In each of these countries, the next election and, indeed, the next

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      89

several elections were observed and experienced no pre-election violence. As one political scientist from Benin notes, “International observers played a major role in preventing incumbent leaders from unleashing violence on the opposition and stealing the vote.”24 An exception is Benin’s 2007 election, which was observed and resulted in five people injured—yet even that was a decline from the more than a dozen wounded and a death in the unobserved 1991 election. In Malawi, the presence of technical assistance may have also played a role in reducing violence, as each of its subsequent elections received technical assistance from the United Nations and was either peaceful or had only limited violence (as in the 2004 election). Undoubtedly, there are several factors at play in these circumstances, but the influence of international election support—and particularly observation—cannot be dismissed. In addition to variation within individual countries over time, subnational studies also support the argument. For example, one recent field experiment during Ghana’s 2012 elections finds evidence that observation can reduce the number of physical attacks on election-day.25 These dynamics are unlikely to be due to selection because observers were randomly assigned to subnational polling stations. Random assignment is the polar opposite of strategic selection. Thus variation across elections within single countries provides support for the argument that election observation can reduce campaign violence. Another piece of evidence is that the opposition often fears more government crackdown during campaigning periods if no international observers are present. For instance, in Guinea, the opposition parties have regularly requested that President Lansana Conte allow foreign election observers. Conte came to power in a military coup in 1984 and ruled until his death in 2008, introducing multi-party elections in 1993. President Conte allowed international o ­ bservers for the 1995 election, which remained peaceful. In contrast, Conte refused observation during the 1993 and 1998 elections, which were both marred by campaign violence. During campaigning for the unobserved 1993 election, more than 200 people were killed and wounded. Three months before the 1993 election, opposition forces staged a demonstration calling for an independent electoral commission and a transitional government; the police used excessive force to disperse the crowds, leading to fatalities and injuries, which then spiraled into more violence. By the time of Guinea’s 1998 election, the link between foreign observers and reduced violence had become evident. As a prominent BBC Africa correspondent noted: “The government has refused to allow foreign election monitors into the country and local rights monitors have expressed fears about the escalation of campaign violence.”26 The opposition’s expectations of government violence in the absence of observers were proven right. During campaigning for the unob-

90       CHAPTER 2

served 1998 election, more than a hundred people were harmed.27 There were reports of security forces killing and injuring opposition supporters.28 There were also reports of clashes between supporters of the incumbent and the opposition. These examples illustrate that reputable international observers can increase the accountability of potential perpetrators of fraud and violence. Observation increases the probability that perpetrators are identified and exposed. While the deterrent power of observation is difficult to trace in firsthand accounts of perpetrators, the victims’ reports, the temporal variation across elections within single countries, and similar evidence from subnational studies support the argument that observation can reduce campaign violence. Given increased accountability for their actions, perpetrators have incentives to reduce manipulation or abstain from it entirely, leading to a reduction in campaign violence. VI O L EN C E- RE DU C I N G A S S I S TA N C E AC TI V I TI ES: SI ER RA   L EO NE

In addition to tracing the observation-violence link across elections, a review of prominent cases of technical assistance also supports the argument about its violence-reducing potential. As argued in chapter 1, technical election assistance can increase the capacity of the national election commission to run a smooth and peaceful election through removing potential conflict triggers, and keeping conflict from escalating. One such case of violence-reducing technical support is Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone’s 2007 election provides a good example because it illustrates both the breadth of initiatives and their impact on conflict management. Presidential and parliamentary elections were held on 11 August 2007, with a presidential run-off on 8 September. The elections were contested by seven political parties with their own presidential and vice presidential candidates as well as over 500 parliamentary candidates across 112 electoral constituencies. Sierra Leone’s 2007 election is arguably a hard case for reducing campaign vio­­ lence because this election context had many of the domestic drivers of violence. Perhaps most importantly, Sierra Leone’s 2007 election was the first election after a decade-long civil war (1991–2002). After the war, most political violence was between the two main political parties, which were themselves aligned with former factions in the civil war: the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and All People’s Congress (APC). This inter-party violence was expected to be further intensified by the upcoming elections. In addition to persistent conflict lines (which provide a motive), means of violence were easy to come by: small arms and light weapons were still widespread, as disarmament programs had been imperfect. Further, the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers in 2005 meant that election security was no longer being provided by UN peacekeepers. The 2007 election received UN technical assistance, but peacekeeping troops had left the country.29

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      91

As one country expert put it, Sierra Leone’s 2007 election was a “perfect candidate for election violence, and many feared such violence would occur.”30 In addition to the post-conflict environment, conditions for election violence were ripe due to low economic development; the country had ranked lowest on the UN human development index for several years. High youth unemployment, a culture of immunity, and a lack of prosecution all contributed to the pool of hirable thugs, which tends to facilitate electoral violence. Moreover, the country featured few constraints on the executive, a history of ethnic conflict, and past election violence. In the run-up to the 1996 election, 27 people were killed during election-related violence.31 In terms of election support, both technical assistance and observation were implemented in the run-up to the 2007 elections. In particular, technical assistance was provided by the United Nations and IFES starting in December 2006, eight months before the election.32 Observation was implemented by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the European Union (EU); these observer missions arrived in July and August 2007, respectively. With regard to observation, there is some evidence that observers raised accountability. They pointed out vote buying and tensions and named the main perpetrators. For example, the EU observer team noted that all parties engaged in “the distribution of money, food and other incentives” and that “both major political parties employed groups of youths and ex-combatants to travel around their strongholds.”33 This created accountability with the incumbent party but also identified the main opposition party for questionable activities. Technical assistance also played a role in reducing violence. Sierra Leone’s national election commission (NEC) received external assistance for ­institutional reform. This included (1) procuring a permanent building for the NEC headquarters; (2) hiring and training staff for competence in electoral laws, internal procedures, planning and budgeting, timelines, hardware and software; and (3) creating a durable voter registration system.34 These changes were aimed at creating more competent election management, so that the election could proceed more smoothly, with sufficient resources, fewer technical glitches, and in a calmer manner. Capacity-building support also included procedural changes to remove some conflict triggers and prevent potential violence from escalating. Two examples of this are changes in party registration and the strengthening of district monitoring committees. During the campaigning periods for Sierra Leone’s 2002 national and 2004 local elections, the process of candidate nominations had been particularly conflict-prone. For the 2007 election, the UN and IFES helped the NEC design new procedures. To help avoid personal confrontations in the nomination process, each political party was allocated time slots for registration. This

92       CHAPTER 2

greatly reduced occasions in which candidates from competing parties were sharing the same space at a high-stakes event (registration) and thereby reduced the potential for confrontations and personal conflicts. As a result, the nomination proceeded peacefully, and “political parties expressed satisfaction in the nomination process,” which stands in contrast to the two previous elections.35 Besides conflict prevention, technical assistance also supported mitigation once conflict arose. To promote peaceful campaigning, the major innovation was the creation and training for the District Code of Conduct Monitoring Committees (DMC). While a code of conduct for political parties was created in late 2006 and a national monitoring committee in Freetown, the capital, was established in January 2007, these initiatives were largely paper tigers with little impact on behavior. As a solution, regional units were established in all of the fourteen districts and were active from May to October 2007. All of these units were comprised of stakeholders from political parties, civil society, and the police, which was crucial for its enforcement function. This design allowed the DMCs to identify areas of conflict and to mitigate tensions. Further, the UN financially supported rapid response actions for conflict mitigation. In the campaigning period, these included interventions such as a mediation meeting settling a dispute between the two main parties on 3 August 2007. The EU observers praised the DMC for having become “an efficient forum for addressing contentious issues. Their regular meetings acted as an efficient conflict mediation tool during the campaign period and successfully promoted reconciliation among political parties after clashes between their supporters.”36 Thus external assistance for reforms can increase institutional capacity to minimize conflict triggers and mitigate conflict before it escalates into violence. In addition to conflict prevention and mitigation, technical assistance was also provided for voter education. Voter education increased knowledge about how, when, and why to vote and what behavior is appropriate. This related both to the importance of peaceful campaigning and the reduction of perceived unfairness. Technical assistance helped the NEC design and produce voter education materials, which informed citizens about the electoral process as well as the need for peaceful participation. Given an 80 percent illiteracy rate, many of these messages were implemented through the radio, which reaches the vast majority of the population. Other channels included pictorial illustrations on posters, stickers, leaflets, and T-shirts. A total of ten thousand posters, eight hundred T-shirts, and four thousand stickers and leaflets were produced by IFES for voter education purposes. As an important part of this voter education, IFES and the Independent Youth Forum developed a “citizens’ peace pledge” which was printed on T-shirts that were widely distributed. Moreover, radio programs spreading the message of nonviolence reached an estimated 250,000 Sierra Leo-

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      93

neans. Primarily aimed at first-time and young voters, these messages were also aired in the form of jingles and video clips before soccer games and public cinema performances.37 As a result, election officials, voters, and security actors were more informed about their role in the process, the role others would play, the definition of legitimate behavior, and acceptable reactions to transgressions. When citizens are informed about these things and have reasonable avenues of complaint, it becomes more difficult for political actors to manipulate the election. The case of Sierra Leone illustrates how technical assistance can remove conflict triggers, keep conflict from escalating, and help the NEC run nonviolent elections. Even though the average effect across countries might not be large, effects are certainly noticeable in such cases. In Sierra Leone the election campaign stayed peaceful despite significant concerns about impending violence in this post-conflict environment. Campaign violence did not occur, contrary to expectations, and this was in no small part due to international election support. Along these lines, the head of the IFES technical assistance mission stated that this election exemplifies how “election violence can be prevented or mitigated even in the most difficult environments through effective international support.”38 Likewise, the UN stated that “the remarkably peaceful elections were the result of well-designed and -managed election support processes that saw all stakeholders make peaceful elections a major priority.”39 The UNDP also singled out “the significant reduction of political and election-related violence” as a key achievement in that election.40 While skeptics might discount these statements as self-congratulation, this election had all the trappings for campaign violence but nonetheless stayed peaceful. Sierra Leone also provides evidence that observation can hold perpetrators accountable for dubious activities and thus potentially deter them from using violence. Overall, this provides qualitative support for the proposed causal link between international election support and reduced campaign violence, complementing the statistical analysis. The final part of this chapter turns to Liberia as a similarly conflict-prone environment in which both types of election aid have jointly contributed to reduced election violence. T H E JO I N T E FFE C T O F O B S E RVATI O N AND TECHNI CAL S UP P O RT: L I B E R I A

Sierra Leone’s neighbor Liberia has been struggling with a similar post-conflict environment. Liberia has been at high risk of election violence for all four of its elections since the first civil war ended in 1996 (1997, 2005, 2011, 2017 elections)—yet the country has experienced surprisingly little election violence. One important reason for Liberia’s surprisingly peaceful elections was exten-

94       CHAPTER 2

sive international election support. The United Nations first administered the elections and then helped build a national election commission (NEC), which allowed more credible election processes and outcomes. In addition to such technical election assistance, several international election observer groups have attended and endorsed Liberia’s elections and thus supplemented accountability and provided a seal of approval for sensitive processes in a fragile political and security environment. At all four of its post-conflict elections, observation and technical assistance were provided. All four elections had fairly peaceful campaigning periods. Together, these forms of international election support—technical assistance and observation—have helped make Liberia’s elections more credible and have thus lowered the incentives of political contestants to resort to election violence. Like Sierra Leone, Liberia is a post-conflict country. Post-conflict environments are notoriously prone to recurring conflict, and elections are often trigger events for violence. Tensions underlying the prior civil war are seldom fully resolved, disarmament and reintegration of former combatants is imperfect, and internally displaced people are often widespread. Dismal infrastructure, low economic development, and high unemployment and illiteracy also contribute to instability. Furthermore, post-conflict domestic institutions usually lack the capacity and credibility to organize smooth elections processes (and keep contestants in check), so that technical problems in the election administration readily fuel conspiracy rumors about misconduct, irregularities, and fraud. These circumstances provide motive for violent contestation and opportunities for mobilizing, leading supporters of opposing camps to fill the streets and clash with each other or the police/security forces, resulting in fatalities and injuries. From 1989 to 2003, two brutal civil wars wrecked Liberia. Cumulatively, these horrific wars resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths in a country of only four million inhabitants, leaving deep scars on the population. The first civil war (1989–1996) began when a former government minister-turned-rebel, Charles Taylor, tried to topple the sitting government. This violence temporarily ended with a peace agreement in 1996 calling for elections the following year. The 1997 presidential election was essentially a referendum on the peace agreement, and in a landslide, the warlord Charles Taylor won 75 percent of the vote. The election was held under the implicit threat of war should Taylor lose because his opponent, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, was too weak to prevent a post-election standoff if she were to win. Strength on the battlefield and at the ballot box were closely linked. In the 1997 election, Taylor’s military strength and the fear of immediate renewed conflict were plausible explanations for Taylor’s landslide victory. It is less clear whether this also explains the peaceful campaigning period. International engagement through UN peacekeeping, UN election assistance, and several

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      95

observer groups likely also contributed to the peaceful pre-election atmosphere. Two years after these elections, Taylor’s leadership was challenged by rebels, and Liberia returned to civil war. This second civil war (1999–2003) culminated in a new peace agreement in 2003, which stipulated elections by 2005. Following on the heels of the second civil war, Liberia’s 2005 elections were also at risk of election violence but again proved to be surprisingly peaceful. Due to Taylor’s resignation and indictment for war crimes in 2003, no incumbent was running. This helped level the playing field in terms of access to state resources and access to the media.41 Compared to 1997, the 2005 election was more contested, featuring two equally strong candidates. Given that Liberia had just emerged from two civil wars, infrastructure and state capacity—including NEC capacity—was quite low. Yet the campaigning period proceeded peacefully. The 2011 elections were more distant from the civil war but had perhaps the clearest potential for election violence. On the eve of the election, opposition party protesters clashed with police and United Nations peacekeepers, resulting in one fatality. Yet the opposition party and its supporters did not escalate the conflict. Even when the opposition claimed fraud after the first round of voting, it decided to boycott the second round rather than take to the streets. The 2017 elections posed two types of additional management challenges: for the first time since the end of the civil war, Liberia’s NEC was fully responsible for election management. This challenge loomed perhaps larger given the recent Ebola pandemic and the drawdown of both the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL, which had previously helped with election security and logistics) and UNDP election assistance. The second management challenge arose after the first-round election, when one of the losing parties, the Liberty Party, challenged the announced result in court, which made the NEC review its own procedures, and nearly overwhelmed the capacity of the in-house hearing officer. Ultimately, the court dismissed the challenge. The two main contestants (Weah from the CDC and Boakai from the incumbent Unity Party) called on their supporters to stay calm. Although the 2017 elections were tense and accompanied by hate speech, some property damage, and isolated incidents of interparty conflict, where some election campaigns were again largely free of physical election violence.42 Why did Liberia—despite being a prime candidate for election violence— experience so little election violence? Why did campaign violence not erupt in the 1997 or 2005, was limited in 2017, and why did it not escalate after the single violent confrontation in 2011? Elections in other post-conflict settings are often accompanied by electoral violence, such as elections in Algeria, Sudan, and Colombia as well as Cote d’Ivoire. Why does Liberia’s experience in post-conflict elections diverge from these and many other conflict and post-conflict countries? In other words, why is Liberia defying the odds?

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An important part of the answer is that international election support played a critical role in keeping Liberia’s elections relatively peaceful. International assistance made the elections more credible by substituting UN expertise for the lack of domestic election management in the 1997 and 2005 elections. In fact, UN assistance helped make these elections happen at all. Given the lack of domestic capacity after both the first and the second civil wars, election management in 1997 and 2005 was mainly the responsibility of the UN, which administered the elections in collaboration with the regional organization (the African Union). The electoral arm of UNMIL effectively administered these elections and helped increase the capacity of the national election commission (NEC), while several observer groups (such as the Carter Center and NDI) helped with reporting on election quality and voter education. The UN helped with the election law, district delimitation, voter registration, and many other aspects of the 2005 election, bridging a significant gap in domestic capacity. As Liberia’s NEC chairman said after the 2005 election about this capacity supplement: For countries emerging from conflicts, the value added of international technical assistance cannot be over-emphasized. As in the case of Liberia, there exists a massive brain drain as a result of the protracted civil conflict. Consequently, technical assistance became an indispensable asset for the conduct of the 2005 elections. The virtual absence of local legal, delimitation, and IT specialists crucial to the conduct of elections was filled by international technical assistance.43 Technical assistance can help supplement domestic capacity for election management and electoral security. The UN mission to Liberia also provided security with fifteen thousand peacekeepers deployed during the 2005 election, guarding property, providing law and order, and thus deterring and mitigating the escalation of conflict into violence. In 2011, the Liberian NEC took over responsibility for the elections from the UN, although the UN again provided significant technical election assistance and security with ten thousand peacekeepers. This heavy security presence ensured that incitements of electoral violence would be detected early and de-escalated. In 2017, the UN provided more limited technical support than it previously did. UNMIL assisted with some logistical help and extended good offices, while the UNDP chief technical adviser was also available, with the UNDP office located inside the NEC building.44 Further, the UNDP provided critical technical assistance to strengthen NEC dispute resolution procedures by hosting a refresher training for magistrate-level staff just before the run-off.45 The importance of the election commission for election security throughout the process is further confirmed by election observers, as many observer reports

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      97

note the NEC’s contribution for helping to secure the peace in this election. In addition to the UN support for more credible and peaceful elections, international observer groups also contributed to peaceful processes by making elections more credible. Observer groups attended Liberia’s 1997, 2005, 2011, and 2017 elections and raised the accountability of political contestants for misbehavior. Observer groups reported that campaigning, including election-day, had been free from violence, as well as transparent and fairly well administered (with some more mixed reports for the self-administered election in 2017). This does not mean that the opposition never alleged fraud after the election—it did so in 2005 and 2011—but fraud was not “internationally certified”: observer groups deemed the elections free and fair. Perhaps most importantly, Liberians themselves think that election observers can reduce election violence. In a 2017 pre-election survey of over a thousand respondents that I conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Institute of Peace, Liberians reported great confidence in the ability of election observers to help reduce electoral violence. The survey was administered by a Liberian survey team from the Monrovia-based Center for Democratic Governance (CDG) in 150 at-risk towns across four vote-rich counties. Most Liberian respondents—88 percent—agreed somewhat or strongly that “election monitors can help reduce violence.” This is just shy of the 91 percent who agreed that “election monitors can help reduce fraud/cheating.” Liberians’ confidence in observer effects on fraud aligns with a strong body of research on the fraud-reducing effect of observers, and there is little reason to doubt Liberians’ confidence of observer effects on violence. Liberians’ confidence in observers’ ability to reduce election violence is not unique. Together with the USIP, I conducted a very similar pre-election survey in Kenya, which had elections in August 2017, and found fairly similar responses. In Kenya, 73 percent of respondents agreed somewhat or strongly that election monitors can help reduce violence, and 85 percent concurred that they can reduce cheating. These numbers, speak to the local confidence in election observers to make elections both more credible (reduce cheating) and more peaceful (reduce violence). This chapter empirically examines the effect of election support on campaign violence. As detailed in chapter 1, election support can increase the credibility of the electoral process by shaping the environment in which elections are held and make this environment more conducive to peaceful electoral processes. In particular, observation can increase the accountability of potential perpetrators. Observation makes it more likely that misbehavior is detected and independently verified and that the political actors behind these actions are publicly denounced.

98       CHAPTER 2

By raising accountability for misbehavior, manipulation becomes more costly. While political elites may have incentives to use campaign violence in order to influence vote choice or turnout, the increased costs for such actions makes this a less attractive strategy. Therefore observation can help deter potential perpetrators from using violence in the campaigning period. Further, technical assistance can increase the capacity of the election commission to administer smooth elections and to manage conflict. Technical support can help the NEC in acquiring sufficient material and staff to run the election and conduct voter education. It can also support the NEC in setting up institutions to prevent conflict and manage conflict where it occurs. The quantitative and qualitative analyses provide empirical evidence for this argument: election support can significantly reduce campaign violence. The quantitative analysis of over four hundred elections in Africa and Latin America demonstrates that both types of international election support are associated with less campaign violence. Further, there is some evidence of a joint effect: when both types of election support are provided, campaign violence is lower than when no form or only one form of support was provided. These findings are robust to controlling for a host of domestic conflict factors from the baseline model of violence, and changes in the control variables. The quantitative analysis has also tackled selection concerns, as these might provide a powerful alternative explanation. Testing for selection shows that observation is no more or less likely to be deployed at violent elections in Africa and Latin America. This means that the estimate of observation to reduce campaign violence is not biased by selection into more or less peaceful elections. The observer effect is not an artifact of selection. Testing for selection also shows that UN technical assistance tends to select into more violent elections. Technical assistance is somewhat more likely to be provided to elections that are expected to turn violent. It is significantly more likely to be provided to elections where UN peacekeeping troops are already on the ground and where economic development is low—all indicators of a conflict-prone environment. When accounting for this selection into more conflict-prone environments, the analysis reveals that technical support indeed has a violence-reducing effect. Taking into account that the UN goes to more violent places, it is still effective at reducing campaign violence in these circumstances. Shifting gears from the quantitative analysis, a qualitative review of cases also supports the argument. Elections in Ghana, Benin, Malawi, and Guinea illustrate that the observer effect is not just an artifact of broad cross-country analyses but also holds within individual countries over time. Further, reviewing the activities undertaken by technical assistance in Sierra Leone’s 2007 election highlights its link to conflict management and electoral security. Finally, a review of Liberia’s

SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT      99

post-conflict elections documents the joint effect of technical support and observation, as both were present at all elections and none of them experienced substantial campaign violence. The qualitative analysis sheds light on the proposed mechanisms that are often difficult to trace in statistical studies: how observation raises accountability and how technical assistance increases capacity for conflict management. Given the apparent success of technical assistance for mitigating election violence, efforts to explore its dynamics and effects are an important contribution to scholarship and the policy community. I return to the effect of technical assistance on post-election violence in chapter 4, showing that this type of support is also associated with less post-vote violence. It thus is a force for good in terms of less electoral violence and perhaps for other domestic aspects that have yet to be systematically explored. For election observation, chapters 2 and 3 demonstrate important and differential dynamics. On the one hand, observation can calm the campaign process by increasing accountability. On the other hand, this externally generated accountability can backfire after the election if election observers declare that the official result is not credible, increasing the loser’s incentives to challenge the result. This suggests that observation can be a double-edged sword: fueling or calming violence depending on the electoral stage and actions taken. This argument is explored in more detail in the next chapter.

3 THE DARK SIDE International Condemnation and Post-Election Violence

Chapter 1 presented a theory linking international election support to e­ lection violence. While chapter 2 provided empirical support for the pre-election argument, this chapter turns to the post-election period and specifically the effect of observer criticism on post-election violence. When international election observers issue negative verdicts—alleging that significant vote fraud has occurred—they cast doubt on the credibility of the election. Such a condemnation legitimizes the loser’s dissatisfaction and facilitates mobilization among the loser’s supporters. This influences the cost-benefit calculation of the electoral loser as he or she considers challenging or consenting to the result. Observer verdicts shape the incentives of domestic actors—losing candidates, parties, and their supporters—to challenge election outcomes, which can increase post-election violence. In this chapter, I test the argument about condemnations and post-election violence empirically. I use quantitative methods to test the main effect: whether observer condemnations are associated with more post-election violence. In addition, I evaluate the proposed causal chain and the role of the key actor. I show that electoral losers are more likely to challenge a result when it is condemned and that loser challenges are associated with increased violence. This provides statistical support for the hypothesized causal chain, which is condemnation → loser challenge → violence. Further, I show that the results are robust to different model specifications and not driven by endogeneity. In the second half of this chapter, I provide more detailed, qualitative support for this relationship. I dis100

THE DARK SIDE      101

cuss several elections to illustrate the relationship between condemnations and post-vote violence. I draw on a comparative case study of two similar elections with divergent outcomes (Sierra Leone and Kenya 2007), another case to detail the loser challenge mechanism (Cote d’Ivoire 2010), and several additional cases to exemplify variation in which domestic actor initiates violence.

Quantitative Tests If the theoretical argument in chapter 1 is correct, there should be a positive statistical association between negative observer verdicts and post-election violence. To test this, I use data on almost 250 observed national elections in sixty-eight countries in Africa and Latin America since 1990. I limit the sample to observed elections to get a cleaner counterfactual, as this allows us to compare elections that were at risk of receiving an observer condemnation. Examining the set of observed elections offers a more stringent test of the argument because only those elections are included in the analysis that “qualify” for condemnation by having observers in the first place. Monitors can only reveal election manipulation when they observe the election: they must be present in order to observe, evaluate, and assess the election in their press statements and reports. If we did not restrict the sample to observed elections, the counterfactual to condemnation would include both non-condemned and un-observed elections, which makes inference and interpretation challenging. The focus on observed elections also sidesteps the selection issue addressed in the previous chapter, as all the elections examined in this chapter had observers present. A remaining concern for inference is that the act of criticizing an observed election is not exogenous, and I address this issue in the robustness checks. The dependent variable, Post-election casualties, is the count of election-related casualties in the three months after a national election. On average, fifteen people were killed or injured at observed elections; after some elections over a thousand people were harmed. These extreme cases include Kenya in 2007 and Angola in 1992. It is noteworthy that Africa has been more prone to post-vote violence than Latin America. Post-election violence affects about 17 percent of observed elections in Africa but only 9 percent of observed elections in Latin America. In terms of violence intensity, the average post-vote casualty count at observed elections is twenty-two in Africa but only two in Latin America. This means that violence risks and levels are substantially higher in Africa. It also means that there is more violence variation to explain in Africa than in the Americas, so that results are likely stronger for the African continent. To address this variation in violence, I run analyses on the pooled data (both regions) as well as on Africa separately;

102    CHAPTER 3

this approach mirrors the main analyses in the previous chapter for campaign violence (table 2.1). Since the outcome of interest is a count, I again use count models and cluster standard errors by country to account for lack of independence between elections within countries. Also in parallel with chapter 2, one stage of the model predicts zero violence as a function of development and conflict history, while the intensity of violence is predicted by the base model. Model diagnostics again confirm that zero-inflated binomial models are most appropriate for these data; I return to these diagnostics later. The key independent variable is Condemnation in the form of a negative statement (press release or public report) by international election observers. This variable is a binary indicator coded 1 when any reputable observer group seriously questions the process or outcome of the election, that is, who the legitimate winner of the election is. This approach follows a body of research on international election observation, and the data is sourced from the Nelda dataset.1 As detailed in chapter 1, reputable groups are more professional, independent, and willing to criticize elections than other groups. About 15 percent of observed elections were condemned in Africa and Latin America between 1990 and 2012. My argument suggests that observer criticism by at least one reputable group should increase post-vote violence, so the coefficient estimate on Condemnation should be positive and statistically significant. The analyses also include a range of control variables from the baseline model of electoral violence introduced in chapter 1. These control variables are Executive constraints, Post-conflict, Economic development, Natural resources, Population size, Ethnic fractionalization, Competition, Poll type, Past election violence, and Fraud. Again following previous research on post-election contestation, Fraud is a binary variable that indicates whether there were “significant concerns that the elections will not be free and fair”; this measure relates to domestic or international concern about the quality of the election, including whether “elections were widely perceived to lack basic criteria for competitive elections.”2 I expect that fraud is positively associated with post-vote violence but also that condemnation has an additional, violence-increasing effect. The statistical analyses also control for competition and previous election violence. As explained in chapter 1, the empirical measures for these two concepts differ between pre- and post-election analysis because we can use more accurate and relevant information about these issues once election-day has passed. For example, we know the vote share from the announced result, from which we can infer approximate support for the winner and the loser or runner-up—with some measurement error due to fraud. Thus competition is measured as the Loser’s vote share, that is, the percentage of the vote received by

THE DARK SIDE      103

the runner-up according to official election results. This controls for the fact that the loser’s popular support may influence his or her incentive to challenge results and risk violence. As detailed in chapter 1, strength at the ballot box and in the street are linked: the more people vote for the loser, the more people are likely to come out and mobilize for the loser as well. Greater popular support for the loser should increase his or her incentives to challenge results and thus increase violence. In addition, more popular losers might also face more government crackdown in reaction to the challenge or as an attempt to prevent it. Hence, loser vote share should be positively associated with post-vote violence. Further, I also include Pre-election casualties, that is, the count of casualties from the six months before and including election-day. This was the dependent variable in chapter 2 and now becomes a control variable, as pre-vote violence might influence post-vote violence. This is more proximate and more relevant for post-vote violence than taking election violence at the previous election, which tends to be several years in the past. However, I have no strong expectations for the direction of influence, as this issue is debated. While some have found a relationship between pre- and post-election violence or protest,3 others have found no relationship or mixed results,4 highlighting that electoral violence before and after voting follows distinct logics. The descriptive statistics of all variables and their data sources are in appendix 1C. Again, all controls—except the four election-specific variables—are lagged by one year to mitigate e­ ndogeneity.5 Table 3.1 presents the estimated impact of condemnation on post-election violence. Columns 1 and 2 include all observed elections, while columns 3 and 4 focus on Africa separately. The results in table 3.1 are consistent: the coefficient on Condemnation is positive and statistically significant in most models.6 The results are particularly strong for Africa: condemned elections have significantly more post-vote casualties, while controlling for fraud and several other potential drivers of violence. Conditional on elections being observed, condemnation is associated with more post-election violence. The effect of condemnations is also substantively important. To understand the magnitude of the impact, I estimate the predicted number of post-election casualties when Condemnation is varied from 0 to 1 while all other variables are set to their mean values. Condemned elections result in approximately nine additional casualties compared to elections that have also been observed but not condemned. That effect magnitude is about 50 percent of the average post-vote casualties in Africa (which is twenty casualties). This effect is substantively important. These findings support Hypothesis 2a, demonstrating that condemned elections have substantially more post-election violence than not-condemned elections, conditional on observer presence and controlling for a range of other variables.

TABLE 3.1  Effect of observer condemnation on post-election violence LATIN AMERICA AND AFRICA (1)

Predicting violence ­intensity (count) Condemnation

1.415** (0.564)

−0.209 (0.212) −1.611 (1.463) 0.659 (0.639) −0.014 (0.102) 3.020 (2.239) 1.033*** (0.293) −0.057 (0.423) 0.002 (0.016) −0.066*** (0.024)

0.869 (0.972) 2.792* 1.554) 0.232 (0.539) 1.199 (1.227) 0.773 (0.597) −0.002 (0.064) 5.007 (3.663) 0.480* (0.257) −0.531 (0.469) 0.032 (0.038) 0.031 (0.051)

−0.660 (0.521) 0.413** (0.189)

Fraud Executive constraints Post-conflict Economic development Natural resources Ethnic fractionalization Population size Poll type Pre-election casualties Loser vote share Predicting zero violence Post-conflict Economic development Log α Observations Clusters LL

(2)

1.066** (0.423) 246 68 −236.51

AFRICA (3)

2.695*** (0.726)

(4)

−0.581*** (0.166) −1.492 (1.073) 2.298*** (0.794) −0.065 (0.066) 12.301*** (2.194) 1.041*** (0.270) −0.358 (0.336) −0.011** (0.004) −0.038 (0.033)

2.593*** (0.788) 1.490 (2.007) −0.403 (0.315) −0.174 (2.073) 2.732*** (0.862) −0.059 (0.089) 13.563*** (2.606) 0.915*** (0.337) −0.652 (0.444) −0.009 (0.008) 0.010 (0.080)

1.577 (4.420) 3.460 (6.095)

−0.703 (0.548) 0.288 (0.227)

−0.452 (0.907) 0.429 (0.297)

3.089*** (0.351) 242 68 −235.46

1.181** (0.474) 155 46 −184.04

1.461* (0.760) 152 46 −183.07

Notes: The table reports estimates from count models (zero-inflated negative binomial models). The dependent variable is the count of election-related casualties in the three months after election-day. The unit of observation is the national election. The sample is restricted to observed elections. Robust standard errors are clustered on country. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels.

THE DARK SIDE      105

The results also indicate that the statistical model chosen is appropriate: the overdispersion parameter is significant in all models, suggesting that a negative binomial model is more appropriate than a Poisson model. As in chapter 2, I use model fit (AIC) statistics to assess model choice between the standard and zero-inflated negative binomial. These show that the zero-inflated model is preferred in all cases except column 4, where a negative binomial model provides a better fit. The substantive estimate of nine casualties is based on the negative binomial model. The effect estimate for zero-inflated models (as shown in table 3.1) is larger.7 The results are robust to using different measures for control variables, in particular replacing ethnic fractionalization with the percentage of excluded population from the Ethnic Power Relations dataset8 and replacing fraud concerns with a fraud measure that takes into account election-day events.9 The results are substantively similar with the different fraud measure or the exclusion measure. While these analyses document the importance of condemnations by credible observers, I do not claim that condemnations determine violence or that they are the primary drivers of violence in every case. Domestic variables are also important. More populous countries tend to have more post-election casualties. In Africa, ethnic fractionalization is associated with more post-vote violence. These positive relationships are consistent with previous research, as outlined in chapter 1. The coefficient on fraud is weakly significant in column 2 and not significant in column 4. For Africa, this suggests that fraud alone is less likely to lead to violence than internationally certified fraud. Moreover, the effect of condemnations in Africa is robust to controlling for fraud. Also, more constraints on the executive are associated with less violence in Africa. This points to political elites and specifically incumbents as the main perpetrators of violence as well as to the importance of accountability for political violence, as stressed in the introduction and chapter 1. Finally, it might surprise some that campaign violence is not consistently associated with post-election violence. It is only significant in one model, and the coefficient is negative, suggesting that more campaign casualties are associated with fewer post-vote casualties. This again emphasizes that pre- and post-election violence are two different phenomena that operate under distinct logics. The quantitative results in table 3.1 support the argument that negative observer reports can increase post-election violence. If that is true, then do ­positive reports lower violence, essentially acting as a deterrent and mitigating conflict? I have tested this separately and found some evidence in favor of this, but the results should be treated with caution as they rely on a smaller set of elections and thus push the limit on what can be estimated. Recall that we cannot make any inference about the effect of positive reports from table 3.1 because

106    CHAPTER 3

Condemnation = 1 indicates a negative report but Condemnation = 0 includes both positive and ambiguous (mixed) observer reports. To examine the effect of positive reports on violence, I use supplemental data from another source that has information on whether observer organizations deemed the election quality overall as positive, ambiguous, or negative. I coded Endorsement when all observer groups attending the election issued a positive report.10 This ensures that condemnation and endorsement are distinct, because condemnation by any one group could provide leverage for the loser to challenge an election. These data are useful to distinguish clearly positive reports but have limited temporal scope (until 2004) and only cover about half of the elections marked as “observed” by reputable groups in the Nelda data. Consequently, the dataset drops to 116 observed elections in both regions and 73 observed elections in Africa alone. Running multivariate models—and especially more demanding count models—on such a small sample is not generally advisable, so inference, if made at all, should be taken as suggestive only. Replicating table 3.1 with the alternative independent variable, the estimated coefficient on Endorsement is negative and significant in several models. This is in line with the argument that observer reports can significantly influence post-election violence; condemnations can increase such violence, while endorsement may mitigate conflict. However, as stated, results for the endorsement effect are based on a much smaller sample and should thus be treated with caution. Some elections support the notion that positive observer verdicts can at times play a conflict-mitigating role. For example, in the election held in Honduras in 2013, positive verdicts by the Carter Center, the European Union, and the Organization of American States—together with intense diplomatic pressure—helped undermine fraud claims made by the opposition.11 The positive observer verdict on this election strengthened the position of the election commission and debunked efforts of the losing party to mobilize against the victor; no election-related casualties occurred after the election. This case also speaks to the importance of observer verdicts as opposed to their mere presence or opposition fraud claims when it comes to post-election violence. T H E C AUS A L   C H A I N

While my main interest is in the effect of condemnation on post-vote violence, supplementary original data are sufficiently granular to also examine the ­plausibility of the causal mechanism and allow inference about the behavior of the key actor, that is, whether electoral losers are more likely to challenge a result when it was condemned, which then facilitates violence. For that purpose, I collected data on Post-election loser challenge, which is a binary indicator coded 1 if the losing party/candidate challenged the announced election result, and 0

THE DARK SIDE      107

otherwise. Loser challenges can take the form of statements, court proceedings, or demonstrations and must occur within three months of election-day in order to be included in the data. Since challenges are intentionally public events, information is sourced from comprehensive searches of newspapers and newswires using the OneSearch meta-search engine, which also searches within the popular LexisNexis database. More details on coding these original data are in appendix 1C.12 Since this alternative outcome variable is binary, I use logit models. For the model specification I follow three prominent studies of post-election protests and rejections13 and control for Fraud concerns, Loser vote share, Executive constraints, Judicial independence, Economic development, Poll type, and Incumbent lost. I do not include a control for observer presence since the sample is already restricted to observed elections. Appendix table 3A.1 shows that observer condemnations are strongly and positively associated with a higher risk of loser challenges, while controlling for a range of other factors. The coefficient on condemnation is highly statistically significant across all models (p PW

1– cW

cL > PL

(1.1)

cW < PW AND cL + cC < PL

(1.2)

cW > PW AND cL < PL

(1.3)

APPENDIX FIGURE 1B.2.  Equilibria and the loser’s strength

APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1      169

Proof of Equilibria To solve this game through backward induction, consider the decision of the last player, the loser. The loser chooses between backing down and fighting. The loser backs down if and only if the loser’s payoff for fighting (PL − cL − cc) is smaller than the loser’s payoff for backing down (−cc), and he or she will fight otherwise. In other words, the loser backs down if and only if the loser’s cost of fighting is greater than the loser’s probability of winning the post-election contest (iff cL > PL). Given that the loser backs down, the winner will resist because the winner’s payoff for resist and back down (1) is always greater than the winner’s payoff for concede (0). Given that the winner resists and the loser backs down (iff cL > PL), the loser prefers to consent because the loser’s payoff for consenting (0) is always greater than the loser’s payoff for challenging and backing down (−cc). The following is a sufficient condition for the loser to consent. Thus equation 1 is the Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibrium:

cL > PL

(equation 1)

If instead of backing down the loser decides to fight (iff PL > cL), then the winner will resist as long as his or her payoff for fighting (PW − cW) is greater than his or her payoff for conceding (0), meaning that PW > cW. Given that, the loser will consents Loser consents

Loser consents

PEACE e.g. Senegal 2012

PEACE e.g. Senegal 2012

Loser challenges, Winner resists & Loser fights

Loser challenges, Winner concedes

VIOLENCE / war e.g. Cote d’Ivoire 2010

LOW VIOLENCE / protests e.g. color revolutions

cW < PW

cW > PW

cL > PL

Loser

cL = PL

cL + cC < PL

challenge fight

cW = PW Winner

APPENDIX FIGURE 1B.3.  Equilibria summary

concede

170       APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1

challenge as long as the payoff for challenge, resist, fight (PL − cL − cc) is greater than that for consent (0): PL > cL + cc. Thus there is a combination of two individually non-sufficient conditions that induces the loser to challenge: if and only if for each player the cost of fighting is smaller than the probability of winning. This is captured in equation 2.

cW < PW AND cL + cc < PL

(equation 2)

If the loser decides to fight (iff PL > cL), the winner alternatively chooses to concede if and only if the winner’s payoff for conceding (0) is greater than the winner’s payoff for fighting (PW − cW), meaning that cW > PW. Given that the winner prefers conceding, the loser challenges because by assumption the value of holding office exceeds the marginal cost of challenging the result: 1 > cc.3 Thus there is a second combination of two conditions that induces the loser to challenge, but here the winner concedes. This is captured in equation 3.

cW > PW AND cL < PL

(equation 3)

Appendix 1C. Variables and Data This book draws on original as well as publicly available data. The unit of analysis is the national election, and the scope of statistical analyses are countries in Africa and Latin America from 1990 to 2012. The variable sources and measurement are summarized in appendix table 1C.1; their descriptive statistics are in appendix table 1C.2. Subsequently, I provide information about the original data collection for election violence, post-election loser challenges, and technical election assistance.

Election Violence Data (GEVD) I collected original data on election violence. The resulting dataset, the Global Election Violence Dataset (GEVD), covers over 1,400 national elections and referenda worldwide from 1990 to 2015. In this book, I draw on a subset of these data—variables about deaths and injuries—and concentrate on national elections. The introduction presents data globally while the remaining chapters focus on Africa and Latin America, as detailed in the empirical strategy section of the introduction. I collected original data on election violence intensity for each stage of the electoral cycle—including the number of people killed and injured before, d ­ uring,

Variables

Control

variables

Mechanism

variables

Independent

variables

Dependent

TYPE

World Bank WDI 2012

logged

Economic development

(continued)

Coppedge et al. 2015 (V-Dem), variable v2elirreg Coppedge et al. 2015 (V-Dem), variable Marshall and Jaggers 2011 (Polity IV), variable xconst

Coppedge et al. 2015 (V-Dem), variable v2elembaut

Gleditsch et al. 2002 (UCDP/PRIO)

independence Clean voting Clean election index Executive constraints

Coppedge et al. 2015 (V-Dem), variable v2elembcap

civil war in the previous ten years GDP per capita, measured in constant USD, lagged and

commission 5-point scale of freedom from intentional irregularities 5-point index of multiple election quality variables Number of institutional constraints on executive author-

capacity Election commission

ity, lagged Binary indicator for whether the country experienced a

commission 5-point scale of autonomy of the national election

Election commission

Post-conflict

from V-Dem 5-point scale of capacity of the national election

challenge

(V-Dem) inverted variable v2elaccept

Original data (see appendix 1C); Coppedge et al. 2015

vation group alleged significant vote fraud Binary indicator for whether the loser challenged the

election result; for robustness, also used binary/scale

Hyde and Marinov 2012, variable nelda47

vation group attended the election Binary indicator for whether at least one reputable obser-

Condemnation

Post-election loser

­appendix 1C) Hyde and Marinov 2012, variable nelda46

von Borzyskowski 2016, (see TEAD in e_v2el_frefair

technical election assistance Binary indicator for whether at least one reputable obser-

von Borzyskowski 2018 (see GEVD in appendix 1C)

after election-day Binary indicator for whether the United Nations provided

von Borzyskowski 2018 (see GEVD in appendix 1C)

SOURCE

before and on election-day Number of people killed or injured in the three months

Number of people killed or injured in the six months

CODING

assistance Observation

Technical election

Post-election casualties

Pre-election casualties

VARIABLE NAME

APPENDIX TABLE 1C.1  Variable descriptions

172

TYPE

Nohlen 2005; Nohlen, Krennerich, and Thibaut 1999; 2001 (DPI version 2012) Hyde and Marinov 2012 von Borzyskowski 2018 (see GEVD in appendix 1C) Hyde and Marinov 2012, variable nelda11 Hyde and Marinov 2012, variable nelda1 Hyde and Marinov 2012, variable nelda2 Hyde and Marinov 2012, variable nelda10 Hyde and Marinov 2012, variables nelda1, nelda2,

re-election Percentage of votes for runner-up

Type of election, coded 0=legislative, 1=executive,

2=general Number of people killed during election violence during

the previous election Binary indicator for whether there were significant con-

cerns that the election would be fraudulent Binary indicator for whether the previous election was

suspended Binary indicator for whether this was the first multi-party

election Binary indicator for whether the country was ruled by a

transitional government Binary indicator for whether the previous election was

Loser vote share

Poll type

Past election violence

Fraud

Previous election

suspended First multi-party election

Transitional government

Uncertain election

Opposition competition

Hyde and Marinov 2012, variable nelda21

homogeneity) to 1 (extreme heterogeneity) Binary indicator for whether the incumbent stood for

Incumbent running

of candidates on the ballot

more than one party was legal and there was a choice

there was a transitional government Binary indicator for whether opposition was allowed and

suspended, it was the first multi-party election, or

World Bank WDI 2012 Finkel et al. 2007, variable soc10

Population size Ethnic fractionalization

nelda5

Hyde and Marinov 2012, variables nelda13, nelda4,

nelda10

African Elections Database n.d.; Carr n.d.; Beck et al.

Ross 2012

once subsidies are accounted for, lagged and logged Population size measured in millions, lagged and logged Index of ethnolinguistic fractionalization from 0 (perfect

SOURCE

Per capita value of oil and gas production to a government

CODING

Natural resources

VARIABLE NAME

APPENDIX TABLE 1C.1 (continued)

173

Hyde and Marinov 2012 Kathman 2013 Marshall and Jaggers 2011 (PolityIV), variable polity2 Marshall and Jaggers 2011 (PolityIV), variable polity2 Marshall and Jaggers 2011 (PolityIV), variable polity2

Indicator of calendar year Binary indicator for whether United Nations peacekeep-

ing troops were stationed in the country, lagged Indicator for whether the Polity2 index is between −10

and −6, lagged Indicator for whether the Polity2 index is between −5 and

5, lagged Indicator for whether the Polity2 index is between 6 and

10, lagged 5-point scale of extent to which the high court adopts

Economic wealth

Year UN peacekeeping

Regime Type: Autocracy

Regime Type: Hybrid

Regime Type: Advanced

Democracy Judicial independence

Coppedge et al. 2015 (V-Dem), variable v2juhcind

World Bank WDI 2012

observed in this country GDP, measured in constant USD, lagged and logged

government preferences despite its own view, lagged

Hyde and Marinov 2012, variable nelda46

Binary indicator for whether any previous election was

Previously observed

APPENDIX TABLE 1C.2  Descriptive statistics VARIABLE

Dependent variables

Pre-election casualties Post-election casualties

Independent variables Technical election

MEAN

STD. DEV.

MIN.

MAX.

N

14.43 14.05

74.48 103.71

0.00 0.00

980 1,480

476 476

0.34

0.48

0.00

1.00

476

assistance Observation Observation and/or tech-

0.65 1.00

0.48 0.73

0.00 0.00

1.00 2.00

439 439

nical assistance Condemnation

0.10

0.30

0.00

1.00

438

Mechanism variables Post-election loser chal-

0.22

0.42

0.00

1.00

462

lenge (GEVD) Post-election loser chal-

1.24

1.28

0.00

4.00

469

lenge (VDEM) Election commission

2.30

1.25

0.00

4.00

476

capacity Election commission

2.11

1.31

0.00

4.00

476

independence Clean voting Clean election index

1.54 2.03

1.20 1.33

0.00 0.00

4.00 4.00

473 463

4.31 0.37 6.97 −2.91 15.93 0.54 0.38 25.03 0.85 0.29 0.46 0.16

1.98 0.48 1.16 7.18 1.36 0.25 0.48 12.80 0.85 0.46 0.50 0.36

1.00 0.00 4.28 −9.21 12.90 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7.00 1.00 10.23 9.76 19.08 0.94 1.00 49.80 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

439 476 471 476 475 476 476 440 476 475 459 468

0.08 0.12 0.23 0.99 0.76 22.74 2001.22 0.07 0.14 0.41 0.45

0.27 0.32 0.42 0.11 0.43 1.85 6.63 0.25 0.34 0.49 0.50

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.67 1990 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 27.47 2012 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

470 470 470 470 470 470 476 476 475 475 475

2.13

1.06

0.00

4.00

476

Control variables

Executive constraints Post-conflict Economic development Natural resources Population size Ethnic fractionalization Incumbent running Loser vote share Poll type Past election violence Fraud Previous election suspended First multi-party election Transitional government Uncertain election Opposition competition Previously observed Economic wealth Year UN peacekeeping Regime Type: Autocracy Regime Type: Hybrid Regime Type: Advanced democracy Judicial independence

APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1      175

APPENDIX TABLE 1C.3  Comparing election-related violence datasets DATASET

AEVD

ELECTORAL VIOLENCE?

3

TIME

SPACE REGION, # OF COUNTRIES

YEARS

MEASURE

PRE

AT

POST

3



3

Africa, n=47

1990–2008

0–3



Africa, n=45

1990–2006

0–2

3

Africa and

1990–present

events

Africa, n=50 1997–present

events

(Straus and 3

(2009) SCAD (Salehyan

3

}

Taylor 2012) Lindberg

combined

3

3

et al. 2012)

Latin America, n=59

ACLED



3

3

3

(Raleigh, Linke, Hegre 2012)

}

Arriola and

3

combined

3

global, n=154 1985–2005

0–3

Johnson (2012) Birch (2011)

3

3

3



global, n=57

1995–2006

1–5

Beaulieu

3

3

3

3

global, n=121 1975–2006

0–1

combined

global, n=161 1946–2012

0–1

Combined

global, n=174 1900–present

0–4

0–3

(2014) 3

(Hyde and Marinov 2012) V-DEM

?

} }

NELDA

(Coppedge et al. 2015) QED (Kelley

3

3

3



global, n=171 1974–2004

3

3

3

3

global, n=161 1990–2015 number of

2010) GEVD (von Borzys-

people

kowski

killed,

2018)

injured, etc.

and after elections—because this information was not available elsewhere when I began this project. Since most data are created with a specific purpose in mind that differs from this project’s goals, available data were not a perfect fit. To illustrate this, appendix table 1C.3 compares GEVD to other datasets; this shows that the information contained in other available datasets had either insufficient granularity (lacking counts of fatalities and injuries, for instance) or insufficient

176       APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1

coverage (available for Africa only). Among those datasets, the African Electoral Violence Database (AEVD) seems best suited for the analyses in this book because it measures election violence intensity six months before and three months after elections and has clearly defined intensity thresholds from zero to three: no violence reported (0), violent harassment (1), violent repression with at least one fatality (2), and large-scale violence with at least twenty fatalities (3).4 However, there are two drawbacks for the purpose of the analyses in this book. First, as a dataset on Africa, it obviously does not cover Latin America and thus makes it difficult to test the scope conditions of the argument. Second, the thresholds—while an improvement on violence dummies (0/1) in other datasets—still discard meaningful variation: twenty fatalities is quite different from hundreds of fatalities or more than a thousand fatalities, as in Kenya 2007 and Angola 1992. The issue of thresholds also applies to a few other datasets. Among them is the dataset in Lindberg (2009) on elections and democracy in Africa, which provides information on whether elections were accompanied by significant, isolated, or no violence. In a similar vein, Arriola and Johnson (2012) rely on a promising data collection, although it has not yet been released publicly. Further, the Quality of Elections Dataset (QED) offers information on unrest/violence, defined as physical abuses, overall violent clashes, or manhandling of persons on election-day and the campaigning period. It includes a categorical variable (0–3) indicating no/ minor/moderate/major problems. However, the category definitions and thresholds are somewhat unclear, except that ongoing war qualifies as a major problem. Perhaps most useful for a cross-regional analysis—and frequently used in prior work on election violence—is the National Elections Across Democracy and Autocracy Dataset (NELDA, Hyde and Marinov 2012). The Nelda dataset provides information on government harassment (variable nelda15) and civilian deaths (variable nelda33). However, these are aggregated across all three electoral stages (before, on, after election-day) and, again, are binary in nature, such that “deaths=1” hides meaningful variation in the intensity of violence. A third indicator (nelda31) is focused on the aftermath of elections but only records government use of force; leaves unclear if the use of violence resulted in any injuries or fatalities; and is conditional on protests, in other words does not record violence in the absence of protests. Similarly, Beaulieu (2014) provides data on violence only if protests occurred. Birch (2011) captures intimidation before but not after elections, and there is no information on whether the intimidation turned violent. While all of these datasets were useful for the purpose of their studies and have paved the way for more research, data on election violence intensity disaggregated by electoral stages—as needed for this book—were not available. Event counts from ACLED5 and SCAD6 data have also been used in a few ­studies.7 However, there are notable drawbacks to using these media-based event

APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1      177

datasets as a measure of election violence.8 Further, ACLED makes it difficult, if not impossible, to objectively filter out election-related events because it does not contain an election-related indicator. Instead of an issue indicator, ACLED features one-sentence descriptions of each incident, and a portion of the descriptions are ambiguous as to whether the event is election-related. Consequently, ACLED data make it difficult to objectively filter out electoral from all other forms of violence, such as militia fights over territorial control, rebels establishing new bases, communal conflicts, harassment, and protesting unrelated to elections. Further, the conceptual notion of “conflict” events is quite broad, as even peace campaigns are included. Using SCAD to capture election-related violence seems conceptually more appropriate than ACLED because SCAD data allow filtering for election-related events and violence. SCAD’s event counts can be either entirely peaceful or violent. SCAD provides an estimate of deaths (no estimate of injuries). Some studies using SCAD data include nonviolent events, such as vandalism and newspaper raids (Smidt 2016, 232), which do not necessarily involve any physical force or harm. Moreover, SCAD data rely on fewer media sources than ACLED, increasing concerns about systematic underreporting.9 Since available data were not suitable for the analyses in this book, I collected original data with an emphasis on disaggregating how many people were affected in which way and in which stage of the election. To collect original data on election violence—including the number of people killed or injured—I used the printed version of Keesing’s Record of World Events. Keesing’s provides an objective and detailed monthly digest of political, economic, and diplomatic affairs for countries around the world, written mostly by academics and journalists. It relies on a large variety of sources, including reputable international periodicals,10 regional news outlets,11 country-specific news providers,12 and radio broadcasts13 as well as election-related sources and other non-news sources.14 It originated in 1758 as the Annual Register and has been published continuously since 1931. Keesing’s was chosen over alternative information sources because it provides consistent coverage over time, is reasonably detailed, and has been used in other prominent data collection efforts on elections15 and conflict.16 Keesing’s is preferable over WND (Facts on File) and World News Connection (WNC) because Keesing’s draws on WND as one of its sources and has many others. To get at national elections worldwide, Keesing’s also has better coverage: WNC uses only local media (as opposed to national) and WND uses almost exclusively English-language sources.17 Data were collected through human coding. Importantly, human coding allows the dataset to reflect more accurately whether violence in a given ­incident was in

178       APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1

fact election-related. Determining whether conflict had an electoral dimension was important; otherwise the data would pick up other types of ongoing conflict as well that just happen to occur during election times. For example, persistent terrorist violence perpetrated by the Tuareg in Mali and the Taliban in Afghanistan was excluded from the coding unless it was clearly election-related. Bombing a polling center is coded as election violence, while bombing market places is not. I decided against machine coding to ensure the electoral “quality” of the conflict and because the main interest was not in event counts but in violence intensity. Each entry was coded by two research assistants. One research assistant coded the entire dataset. The second coding was done by three other research assistants. In this second round of coding, each research assistant coded a world region of personal expertise. Subsequently, inter-coder reliability and cleaning was done by two graduate assistants in close consultation with the author. All research assistants were given background information on elections, election violence, and manipulation and were trained extensively in coding procedures. They received a codebook and a memo for reference. Throughout the coding and cleaning process, regular consultations assured timely review of data quality to ensure that uncertainties and any divergence in standards would be detected early. To ensure replicability and transparency, all violence codes are accompanied with page numbers from the printed Keesing’s in the respective variable notes. Comparing GEVD to other datasets reveals a high rate of agreement on whether or not election violence occurred, while GEVD also provides additional information. As noted above, probably the best and most widely used measure of election violence to date is nelda33 from Hyde and Marinov (2012), which is a binary indicator of whether there was “significant violence involving civilian deaths immediately before, during, or after the election.” To compare this to GEVD, I generate two binary indicators from the counts: GEVD deaths (coded 1 if any election-related deaths occurred before, during, or after the election, 0 otherwise) and GEVD casualties (coded 1 if any election-related deaths or injuries occurred before, during, or after the election, 0 otherwise). Comparing nelda33 to GEVD measures, both the rate of violence overall and the rate of agreement on individual elections are high. Globally from 1990 to 2012, the rate of violent elections reported is 21 percent in nelda33, 21 percent in GEVD deaths, and 24 percent in GEVD casualties. The rate of agreement is 86 percent between nelda33 and GEVD deaths, and it is 85 percent between nelda33 and GEVD casualties. Put differently, the two datasets disagree in only 14 percent of individual elections. Examining this set of elections shows that there is no clear trend in terms of one metric or the other usually over- or undercounting: both datasets have about eighty elections in which they indicate violence but the other dataset does not. A review of cases suggests that both datasets have some

APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1      179

drawbacks. Nelda33 captures violence that is not necessarily election-related. For example, the 2011 election in the Central African Republic was held during an ongoing civil war, with many attacks and extrajudicial killings carried out by the Lord’s Resistance Army. Violence during the 1999 election in Guinea-Bissau was largely due to civil war. Similarly, after the legislative election May 2002, civil war resumes in Congo (Brazzaville), but the violence was part of the ongoing civil war rather than election-related. This is in line with the nelda33 definition of violence “around” (before/during/after) elections but not necessarily related to the election. In other words, the nelda33 concept and measure are consistent (valid), but GEVD provides a cleaner measure of election-related violence. On the other hand, a review of cases also shows that GEVD under-counts in a few elections where unrest is reported without any casualty estimates or when the link of violence to elections is not clear. This underlines the conservative coding strategy, erring on the side of caution to minimize false positives, which at times risks false negatives (marking a violent election as peaceful). Again looking through the cases, this seems to be largely an issue of missing one, two, or a handful of affected people; undercounting larger numbers of people affected is rare. Rates of agreement between GEVD and other datasets are also high. For example, the rate of agreement between AEVD (repression, violence) and GEVD casualties is 81 percent for pre-election violence and 89 percent for post-election violence. The rate of agreement with another new potential indicator of election violence from V-Dem (v2elpeace, v2elintim) is lower (72 percent), but V-Dem’s agreement is even lower with nelda33 (69 percent), which suggests substantial differences in the conceptual understanding of electoral violence in V-Dem data. A review of cases shows that V-Dem’s discrepancies with nelda33 and GEVD arise because V-Dem includes more civil war and general societal unrest that happens to occur at election time but is not necessarily election-related. Overall, these comparisons suggest that GEVD data capture electoral violence fairly well and is in line with other prominent datasets of election experts (Hyde and Marinov 2012) and region experts (Straus and Taylor 2012). To the degree that there are differences, GEVD tends to be a more conservative measure, cleaner of other forms of violence that occur during the election without being election-related, but at times undercounting casualties when none are given in the source documents (Keesing’s).

Post-Election Loser Challenge Data For the empirical analyses in chapters 3 and 4, I employ data on loser challenges. This provides information on whether the losing party or candidate challenged the announced election result. These data were collected for Africa and Latin

180       APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1

America because until recently the only public data on this issue was restricted to sub-Saharan Africa before 2006.18 Information on loser challenges comes from comprehensive searches of newspapers and newswires using the OneSearch meta search engine, which also searches within the popular LexisNexis database. Searches specified the name of the country, a date range up to three months after the election, and the following search terms: election, elect, electoral, result, reject, refuse, annul, dispute, challenge, announce, court, demonstration. The binary variable loser challenge is coded 1 when the electoral loser challenged the outcome of the election, and 0 otherwise. Loser challenges can take the form of statements, court proceedings, or demonstrations. As a robustness check, I use similar data from V-Dem on whether the loser accepted the outcome, invert the four-point scale to code challenges, and then collapse that to a binary measure.

Technical Election Assistance Data (TEAD) Data on United Nations technical election assistance comes from two sources. Data on such assistance from 1990 to 2003 comes from von Borzyskowski (2016), which itself relies on the UN’s internal compilation of election assistance projects published in Ludwig (2004b). These data are supplemented—mainly for 2004–2012—with original data on UN technical election assistance projects. These additional data were compiled from the UN Secretary General’s biennial reports on election assistance and the UN’s websites for election assistance.19 Both sets of sources include information on the country name, the election for which assistance was provided, and the type of assistance. Only technical election assistance (by far the most frequent type of UN assistance) was included in the analysis. Data were coded by two research assistants and coding discrepancies were resolved in consultation with the author. UN technical election assistance is coded 1 when the UN provided such support and 0 otherwise. Again, comparing these original data to similar data collection efforts shows high correlations and suggests a valid and reliable measure. Lührmann (2016) collected data on UN election support from 2007 to 2014. These data cover any forms of support, including technical election assistance and other forms, and are coded from the biennial reports of the UN Secretary General. Comparing Lührmann (2016) data to my original data for the years 2007–2012 globally shows a rate of agreement of 92 percent. More closely examining the 8 percent of elections with disagreements worldwide reveals that there are about a dozen cases where Lührmann’s data report UN assistance but my data do not; this is unsurprising, as Lührmann’s data go beyond technical election assistance to include other forms of election assistance. Further, a couple of these discrepancies are

APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1      181

APPENDIX TABLE 1C.4  Sample: Elections in 74 countries in Africa and Latin America, 1990–2012 Algeria Angola Argentina Benin Bolivia Botswana Brazil Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Chile Colombia Comoros Congo (Brazzaville) Costa Rica Cote d’Ivoire Cuba Dem. Republic of the Congo Djibouti Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras

Jamaica Kenya Lesotho Liberia Libya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Panama Paraguay Peru Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Sudan Surinam Swaziland Tanzania Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Uganda Uruguay Venezuela Zambia Zimbabwe

UN projects that started after an election (post-election reforms) but ended years before the next election and are thus not coded in my data (to ensure temporal priority of UN assistance before violence). In addition, about a dozen elections in my data record technical election assistance while Lührmann’s data do not. In each of these cases, there are UN project documents or similar documentation showing technical support was indeed provided (but was apparently not listed in the SG biennial reports).

Appendix to Chapter 3

APPENDIX TABLE 3A.1  Effect of observer condemnation on post-election loser challenge LATIN AMERICA AND AFRICA (1)

Condemnation

1.408*** (0.397)

Fraud Loser vote share Judicial independence Executive constraints Economic development Poll type Incumbent lost Observations Clusters LL

0.017 (0.014) 0.054 (0.197) −0.125 (0.123) −0.080 (0.172) 0.361 (0.230) −0.818** (0.376) 239 65 −119.68

AFRICA

(2)

(3)

(4)

1.360*** (0.436) 0.176 (0.321) 0.020 (0.015) 0.037 (0.204) −0.115 (0.129) −0.070 (0.174) 0.369 (0.233) −0.781** (0.388)

1.382*** (0.475)

1.558** (0.551) −0.272 (0.403) 0.034* (0.020) 0.079 (0.255) −0.006 (0.138) 0.438* (0.235) 0.536* (0.298) 0.045 (0.502)

235 65 −117.41

0.032* (0.019) 0.093 (0.248) −0.001 (0.127) 0.400* (0.225) 0.503* (0.294) −0.072 (0.477) 149 44 −83.88

146 44 −81.05

Notes: The table reports estimates from logit models. The dependent variable is post-election loser challenge. The unit of observation is the national election. The sample is restricted to observed elections. Standard errors are clustered on country. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels.

183

184       APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 3

APPENDIX TABLE 3A.2  Effect of loser challenge on post-election violence AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA AND AFRICA (1)

Predicting violence ­intensity (count) Post-election loser challenge

2.726** (1.135)

Post-conflict Economic development Natural resources Ethnic fractionalization Population size Poll type Pre-election casualties Loser vote share Predicting zero violence Post-conflict Economic development Log α Observations Clusters LL

(3)

3.135** (1.578)

(4)

−0.745*** (0.260) −1.679 (1.669) 0.916 (0.861) −0.032 (0.142) −1.416 (2.814) 0.965*** (0.316) 0.051 (0.543) 0.026 (0.018) −0.063 (0.038)

2.480** (1.006) 3.328** (1.359) −0.187 (0.576) 0.871 (1.436) 1.403*** (0.538) −0.091 (0.075) 2.964 (4.456) 0.732* (0.432) −0.738 (0.530) 0.042** (0.017) −0.003 (0.050)

−1.140** (0.535) −1.135 (2.322) 1.828 (1.519) −0.002 (0.117) 5.673* (3.084) 0.445 (0.305) 0.893 (0.693) 0.002 (0.006) 0.045 (0.032)

2.725 (1.928) 1.806 (1.694) −0.902 (0.757) 0.061 (2.527) 2.326 (1.620) −0.031 (0.124) 7.835** (3.874) 0.567 (0.370) 0.314 (1.182) 0.007 (0.023) 0.071** (0.035)

−0.871 (0.803) 0.640 (0.428)

1.070 (2.604) 2.718 (2.956)

−0.879 (1.356) 0.519 (0.413)

−0.427 (1.629) 0.710 (0.503)

2.045** (0.974) 240 65 −235.84

2.973*** (0.316) 236 65 −233.23

2.348*** (0.611) 150 44 −184.83

2.417*** (0.719) 147 44 −183.44

Fraud Executive constraints

(2)

Notes: The table reports estimates from count models (zero-inflated negative binomial models). The dependent variable is the count of election-related casualties in the three months after election-day. The unit of observation is the national election. The sample is restricted to observed elections. Standard errors are clustered on country. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels.

APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 3      185

APPENDIX TABLE 3A.3  Effect of observer condemnation on post-election ­violence, accounting for potential endogeneity (1)

Main model predicting violence Condemnation

0.424 (0.286)

Post-conflict Economic development Natural resources Ethnic fractionalization Population size Loser vote share Poll type Pre-election casualties (logged) First stage predicting condemnation Pre-election casualties (logged) Fraud ODA per capita First multi-party election

(3)

−0.035 (0.033) −0.037 (0.141) −0.070 (0.063) 0.004 (0.010) 0.433 (0.266) 0.053 (0.044) 0.014*** (0.005) 0.042 (0.059) 0.269*** (0.078)

0.378 (0.310) 0.082 (0.144) −0.030 (0.030) −0.045 (0.144) −0.067 (0.063) 0.004 (0.010) 0.433 (0.265) 0.055 (0.044) 0.015*** (0.005) 0.043 (0.058) 0.266*** (0.080)

0.389 (0.317) 0.080 (0.145) −0.030 (0.030) −0.045 (0.144) −0.067 (0.063) 0.004 (0.010) 0.433 (0.265) 0.055 (0.044) 0.015*** (0.005) 0.042 (0.058) 0.266*** (0.080)

0.099 (0.079) 1.130*** (0.228) −0.065 (0.115) 0.031 (0.332)

0.099 (0.079) 1.136*** (0.229) −0.065 (0.115) 0.030 (0.330)

0.103 (0.078) 1.092*** (0.256) −0.063 (0.121) −0.001 (0.319) −0.099 (0.158)

0.101 (0.075) 1.063*** (0.252) −0.065 (0.119) −0.000 (0.317) −0.086 (0.157) −0.370 (0.268)

Economic development Turnover Rho Wald test of independent ­equations (ρ = 0), Pr(χ2) Observations Clusters LL

(4)

0.358 (0.307) 0.086 (0.143) −0.030 (0.030) −0.045 (0.144) −0.066 (0.063) 0.004 (0.010) 0.432 (0.265) 0.055 (0.044) 0.015*** (0.005) 0.043 (0.058) 0.266*** (0.080)

Fraud Executive constraints

(2)

0.03 0.56

0.05 0.09

0.04 0.21

0.04 0.29

354 70 −614.75

354 70 −614.57

354 70 −613.97

354 70 −613.08

Notes: The table reports estimates from treatment effects models, which are linear regressions with an endogenous binary treatment variable in the first stage. The endogenous variable is observer condemnation. The dependent variable is post-election violence, i.e., the logged number of election-related casualties in the three months after election-day. The unit of observation is the national election. The sample is restricted to observed elections. Robust standard errors are clustered on country. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels.

Notes

INTRODUCTION

1. “What do election observers do?” The Economist, 21 June 2017. 2. Hyde 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011a, 2011b; Bjornlund, Bratton, and Gibson 1992, 408; McCoy, Garber, and Pastor 1991, 107–13; Garber and Cowan 1993; Donno 2013, 101–4; Kelley 2011, 2012, 129, 154. Some have raised caveats about the extent of positive effects (Kelley 2012, 168–69; Carothers 1997, 20–27; Bush and Prather 2017) and noted strategic adaptation by the incumbent (Simpser and Donno 2012; Ichino and Schündeln 2012; Hyde and O’Mahony 2010). 3. iPoll Databank 2005, 2009, 2011. 4. Carothers 2015b. See also Kumar 1998, 6; Kumar and Ottaway 1997, 38. 5. In this book, I use “(national) election commission” or “NEC” as a shorthand for election management body (EMB), i.e., the main institution responsible for administering electoral processes. EMBs can take several institutional forms, including election commissions (NECs), election councils, and election boards. 6. Election assistance can be technical, logistical, or financial and often involves several of these aspects. It often involves the election commission. I use “technical” election assistance to distinguish it more clearly from election observation/monitoring. I use “election assistance” and “technical election assistance” interchangeably. In this book, election “support” or “aid” means both technical election assistance and election observation. 7. Observer condemnation measures whether any reputable international observer group seriously questioned the winner of the election or the legitimacy of the process. Most observer reports are nuanced, include some criticism, and note some room for improvement; only those that are overtly negative are considered a condemnation. See Hyde and Marinov 2014, 343; data are from Hyde and Marinov 2012. 8. Hyde and Marinov 2012 and technical assistance dataset (see appendix 1C). 9. On the history of UN election assistance, see Ludwig 2004a; von Borzyskowski 2016. 10. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Development Assistance Committee (OECD/DAC), all donors, constant US dollars, sectors 150 and 15151. See stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=Table5# and www.oecd.org/dac/stats/ documentupload/Budget%20identifier%20purpose%20codes_EN_Apr%202016.pdf, accessed 18 September 2018. 11. Norris 2017, 73. 12. UN 2010, 1. 1 3. UNDP  2012. 1 4. Abbarno  2017. 15. Norris 2017, 71. 16. Carothers 2015a, 72. 17. United Nations Human Rights Council 2010. 18. UNDP 2009, 2011; USAID 2010, 2013; ECDPM 2012; Atwood 2012. 19. Claes 2017; Claes and von Borzyskowski 2018. 20. EC-UNDP Joint Task Force on Electoral Assistance 2011 and www.usip.org/events/ preventing-electoral-violence-in-africa-tools-policymakers, accessed 18 September 2018; 187

188       NOTES TO PAGES 7–15

see also www.usip.org/education-training/courses/preventing-electoral-violence-asiatools-practitioners-and-policymakers, accessed 18 September 2018. 21. Fischer 2002; IFES 2004, 2014; Kammerud 2011; Cyllah 2014. 22. IDEA 2013, 2015; Herrberg et al. 2012. 23. EISA 2009, 17, 14–19; AU Panel of the Wise 2010; UNDP 2014, 42. 24. Claes 2017; Claes and von Borzyskowski 2018; UNDP 2009, 51–93; Kumar and Ottaway 1997; Kumar 1998; Gillies 2011. 25. Three of the most prominent authors in this field—Thomas Carothers, Larry Diamond, and Peter Burnell—do not explore this phenomenon in their work. See Carothers 2004, 2006a, 2006b, 2010; Diamond 2008; Burnell 2000. But see Daxecker 2012, 2014. 26. Collier 2009, 20–21. 27. Author’s calculation based on World Bank (2012) data and original Global Election Violence Data (GEVD) data. 28. Hyde and Marinov 2014; Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2014. 29. Arriola and Johnson 2012. 30. Author’s calculation based on data from Hyde and Marinov 2012, Nelda data, nelda11. 31. Author’s calculation based on original data and Global Election Violence Data (GEVD). 32. Authors’ calculation based on data from Beck et al. 2001. 33. I thank Thomas Risse for suggesting this term to me. 34. Hyde and O’Mahony 2010; Hyde 2011b; Kelley 2012. 35. Beaulieu 2014, 64; Beaulieu and Hyde 2009; Kelley 2011. 36. Beaulieu 2014, 73; Hyde and Marinov 2014; Kuhn 2012. 37. Daxecker 2012; Smidt 2016. Luo and Rozenas (2018) assume the condemnationviolence link to motivate a formal model. 38. For a discussion of ACLED and SCAD data quality to capture election-related violence, see appendix 1C; Eck 2012; von Borzyskowski and Wahman 2018. 39. Daxecker (2012, note 25) acknowledges explicitly that observer fraud reports are not measured. 40. Only 41 percent of observed elections with serious fraud are condemned by observers in Africa. Author’s calculation based on the fraud measure used in these articles, i.e. State Department Human Rights reports issued up to a year after the election (see Daxecker 2012, 510; and Smidt 2016, 232–33; data from Kelley 2010 QED). 41. Atwood 2012, 22. 42. Kelley 2012, 72. 43. See Hyde and Marinov’s (2012) Nelda data, nelda47. 44. Norris 2014, 203. 45. Ludwig 1995, 2004a, 2004b; Darnolf 2011; Soudriette and Pilon 2007. 46. Kumar 1998; Kammerud 2011; Santiso 2002; Steinorth 2011, 318–19. 4 7. Lührmann  2018. 48. Birch and Muchlinski 2018. 49. Birch and Muchlinski 2018, 397. 50. Norris 2017, 275. 51. Carothers and Samet-Marram 2015. 52. Norris 2014, ch. 5. 53. For accountability and credibility around elections, see the contributions by Robert Pastor and others in Schedler, Diamond, and Plattner 1999. 54. Norris 2014, 8–9, 21, 65; Norris, Frank, and Martínez 2015, 5. 55. Norris 2014, 2015, 2017. Note that researchers have used the term election integrity in earlier work; see, for example, Birch 2008; Beaulieu 2012. 56. Bjornlund 2004, 94–98; Elklit and Svensson 1997; Geisler 1993.

NOTES TO PAGES 15–26      189

57. International organizations (IOs) include both international governmental (IGOs) and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); see Pevehouse and von Borzyskowski 2016. Of course, IOs could potentially influence election violence through more ways than election support. One option is enforcing credible commitments, although that is rarely and unevenly done; see von Borzyskowski and Vabulas 2019. The book examines election support is one important mechanism. 58. As detailed in chapter 1, my focus is explicitly on reputable observer groups rather than facade monitors, that is, lenient groups with little monitoring effort and even less willingness to criticize elections. I use election “monitoring” and “observation” interchangeably. 59. Note that “manipulation” can encompass both violent and nonviolent means, whereas “violence” always entails physical force and “fraud” does not. 60. Author’s calculation based on original GEVD data and V-Dem data, variable v2elembcap. 61. This is Colombia’s 2002 election; the natural log of 45 is 3.8. 62. This is Angola’s 1992 election; the natural log of 1,000 is 6.9. 6 3. Strictly speaking, Latin America refers to Spanish, Portuguese, and French-speaking countries and does not include English or Dutch-speaking countries like Guyana, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica. Thus the term Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is more accurate. For simplicity, I use “Latin America” as a synonym. 64. Bekoe 2009, 2012; Bekoe and Burchard 2017; Fjelde and Höglund 2016; Opitz, Fjelde, and Höglund 2013; Burchard 2015; Taylor, Pevehouse, and Straus 2017. One exception is Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2014, 2018. 65. Note that selecting regions where support is more prevalent is not selecting on the independent variable because elections in these regions vary widely in the extent of international support. While selecting on the independent variable would be not be problematic per se, it would call for different inferential statements in terms of generalizability and certainty (King, Keohane, and Verba 1994, 137–38). However, both Africa and Latin America vary widely in the key explanatory variables. 66. Author’s compilation based on original data as well as von Borzyskowski 2016, see appendix 1C; map made with Weidmann et al.’s (2010) cshapes package in R. 67. Author’s compilation based on original data as well as von Borzyskowski 2016; Hyde and Marinov 2011, nelda46. Nelda46 has some missing values, thus reducing the number of observations here compared to figure I.3. Region coding with Arel-Bundock’s R package countrycode, except that I group Canada and the U.S. with Europe instead of Latin America. 68. The focus on reputable observers as opposed to any international or domestic groups is based on prior research, as explained below. 69. Huntington 1991; Peeler 2009, 49. 70. Hagopian and Mainwaring 2005. 71. Lynch and Crawford 2011; Bratton and van de Walle 1997; Lindberg 2006. 72. Diamond  2011. 73. Von Borzyskowski and Vabulas 2019; OAS 2001a; on governance charters, see Börzel and van Hüllen 2015. 74. See Aniekwe and Atuobi 2016; and www.oas.org/eomdatabase/default. aspx?lang=en. 75. Author’s compilation based on V-Dem data version 6.2, Coppedge et al. 2015. 76. For example, in Latin America, Haiti’s election commission has had unusually low capacity impacting the organization of elections throughout the country in the 1990s and 2000s, along with serious deficits in Guyana and El Salvador in the early 1990s. 77. OSCE 2005, 1. 78. Dahl 1989, 221, emphasis added.

190     NOTES TO PAGES 26–33

79. Kaplan 1997; Zakaria 2004; Pastor 1999b; Schmitter and Karl 1991. 80. Bratton 1998, 52. 81. Rod Nordland, Azam Ahmed, and Matthew Rosenberg, “Afghan Turnout Is High as Voters Defy the Taliban,” New York Times, 6 April 2014, available at http://nyti. ms/1oA6bd1, accessed 6 April 2014. 82. Burchard 2015, 156–57. 83. Von Borzyskowski and Kuhn 2017. 84. Höglund and Piyarathne 2009, 299–300. 85. Wilkinson 2004. 86. Anders Kelto, “Violence Haunts Zimbabwe Ahead of Elections,” NPR News, 19 May 2012, available at www.npr.org/2012/05/19/153076969/violence-haunts-zimbabweahead-of-elections, accessed 6 April 2014. 87. Bratton 2008; Gutierrez-Romero and LeBas 2016; Mac-Ikemenjima 2017. 88. Such elections include Burundi 2010 and Kenya 2007, for instance; see Travaglianti 2014, ch. 6; Burchard 2015, 14; Bekoe and Burchard 2017; Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2018. 89. Von Borzyskowski and Kuhn 2017. 90. Downs 1957. 91. Bratton 2008, 626; see also Höglund and Piyarathne 2009, 299; Birch 2010. 92. Bratton 2008, 626. 93. Höglund 2009, 417. 94. Pausewang, Trondvall, and Aalen 2002. 95. Chris McGreal and Julian Borger, “Mugabe Has Declared War and We Will Not Be Part of That War,” The Guardian, 22 June 2008, available at www.theguardian.com/ world/2008/jun/23/zimbabwe3, accessed 25 June 2010. 96. Bratton 2008, 626; Höglund 2009, 417; Klopp and Kamungi 2007/08, 15; Höglund and Piyarathne 2009, 299; Birch 2010. 97. Höglund 2009, 417; Klopp and Kamungi 2007/08, 15. 98. Pyne-Mercier et al. 2011. 99. Klopp and Kamungi 2007/08, 15. 100. Sisk 2008, 5; Hoeffler and Reynal-Querol 2003. 101. UNDP 2009, 5; Collier et al. 2003; Collier 2009; Patino and Velasco 2006. 1. CREDIBLE ELECTION THEORY

1. For introductions to the concept of election violence, see Höglund 2009; Straus and Taylor 2012. 2. Straus and Taylor 2012; Daxecker 2012, 2014; Birch and Muchlinski 2018. 3. Some countries shaded in white did not hold direct national elections since 1990: China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Eritrea. Author’s calculation based on original data, the Global Election Violence Data (GEVD). For details on data collection, see appendix 1C. 4. For example, in the U.S., Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords was shot in the head at point-blank range in 2010 after her recent reelection. While Giffords survived, six other people died and twelve were injured. This may have been part of a rise of negative partisanship over the last few decades (Abramowitz and Webster 2016). In France, supporters of the far-right National Front party attacked and killed two immigrants, Ibrahim Ali and Brahim Bouraam, during their election activities in the 1995 presidential election. In the Netherlands, far-right LPF party leader and potential future prime minister Pim Fortuyn was assassinated during the 2002 campaign. In Spain, ETA has used violence to disrupt several elections. 5. Libya’s 2012 election was violent as well, but it was the only direct election since 1965.

NOTES TO PAGES 35–40      191

6. Straus and Taylor 2012, 29–30. 7. Burchard 2015. 8. Laakso 2007, 231–32, 243–44; Makumbe 2002, 91; Masunungure 2011, 55–57; Mehler 2009, 204–6. 9. Lehoucq 2003. 10. Höglund 2009; Birch 2011; Arriola and Johnson 2011; Hyde and Marinov 2014. 11. Schedler 2002; Birch 2011. 12. Cunningham, Dahl, and Fruge 2017. 13. Ritter and Conrad 2016. 14. Author’s calculation based on original dataset, the Global Election Violence Data (GEVD). 15. Rod Nordland and Matthew Rosenberg, “Credibility of Afghan Vote in Doubt as Observers,” New York Times, 29 March 2014; Adam Gallagher, “Afghan Voters Exhibit Enthusiasm Despite Election Flaws: Four Million Afghans Overcame Violence and Underperforming Election Administration to Cast Their Ballots,” USIP Olive Branch, 6 November 2018, available at www.usip.org/blog/2018/11/afghan-votersexhibit-enthusiasm-despite-election-flaws, accessed 7 November 2018. 16. “Boko Haram Threatens to Disrupt Nigeria Poll,” Al Jazeera, 18 February 2015; “Boko Haram Kills 41 in Attack to Disrupt Nigeria Presidential Election,” Associated Press, 28 March 2015. 17. Straus and Taylor 2012, 20; Wilkinson and Haid 2009. 1 8. Wilkinson  2004. 19. IFES 2004, 4–5. 20. Bratton 2008, 626; Höglund 2009, 417; Klopp and Kamungi 2007/08, 15; Höglund and Piyarathne 2009, 299; Birch 2010. 21. Pausewang, Tronvoll, and Aalen 2002; Chris McGreal and Julian Borger, “Mugabe Has Declared War and We Will Not Be Part of That War,” The Guardian, 22 June 2008, available at www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jun/23/zimbabwe3, accessed 6 November 2018. 22. Travaglianti 2014, ch. 6; Burchard 2015, 14; Wilkinson and Haid 2009. 23. See Seeberg, Wahman, and Skaaning 2018. 24. Pastor 1999b; Lindberg 2006, 43–44. 25. See Riker 1983, 62; Przeworski 1991, 15; Nadeau and Blais 1993, 553. 26. Schedler 2001, 71; Anderson et al. 2005. 27. Anderson 2005 et al., 109. 28. Anderson 2005 et al., 101–104; Fuchs, Guidorossi, and Svensson 1998, 345. 2 9. Moehler  2009. 30. Focusing on the strongest runner-up is a simplifying assumption. While potentially all losing candidates or parties could challenge the result, in reality only the major contestants and often only the first runner-up have sufficient incentives to challenge result. Alternatively, we could conceptualize the “loser” as a group of losing contestants or further complicate the setup by modeling coordination dynamics within this group. The basic intuition in terms of interacting with the winner, however, remains the same. 31. In practice, this can precipitate the holding of new elections. 32. Assuming that both players are interested in winning the electoral competition, the costs of fighting would need to be prohibitively high to prevent either player from fighting. If fighting costs are low, both sides have a credible threat to fight. When conflict costs are high, then war need not happen. However, in the case of election violence, the use of force can be relatively small, such as a fight between the police and protesters, retaliatory violence against communities or assassination of individuals.

192       NOTES TO PAGES 40–53

3 3. Chacon, Robinson, and Torvik 2011, 366. 34. Chacon, Robinson, and Torvik 2011; Londregan and Vindigni 2006; Wilkinson 2004; Steele 2011. 35. Londregan and Vindigni 2006, 25. 36. Chernykh (2014) and Beaulieu (2014) have examined these domestic post-election dynamics in some detail. 37. State Department 1992, 25, 29. 38. Arriola and Johnson 2011; Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2014; Taylor, Pevehouse, and Straus 2017. 39. USAID 2010, 8–17; UNDP 2009, 7–18; Cyllah 2014. 40. See Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2014; Krieger 2000; Kriger 2005; Klopp and Kamungi 2007/08; Wilkinson 2004; Bhasin and Gandhi 2013; Chaturvedi 2005; Fearon and Laitin 2003. 41. Kumar 1998; Kumar and de Zeeuw 2006; Kumar and Ottaway 1997, 1998; Lopez-Pintor 1997, 51; Gillies 2011. 42. Kumar 1998, 1, 5–7. 43. Kumar and Ottaway 1998, 229. 44. Collier 2009, 20–21; Collier and Rohner 2008. 45. Arriola 2013; Laakso 2007; Straus 2011; Wilkinson 2004; Wilkinson and Haid 2009; Varshney 2001. 46. On post-election protests—which can remain peaceful—see Kuntz and Thompson 2009; Thompson and Kuntz 2004; Bratton 2008; Kuhn 2012. 47. See Kuran 1995, 247; Tucker 2007; Kuntz and Thompson 2009, 56–257. 48. From a methodological perspective, including pre-election fraud to predict pre-election violence would induce simultaneity bias, as fraud would not temporally be prior to violence here, making inference problematic. 49. On foreign interference in election outcomes, Corstange and Marinov (2012, 655) calculate that there have been about two interventions by foreign powers per year. In recent years, about fifty national elections take place each year, which means that foreign meddling would affect about 4 percent of all elections. 50. See Bjornlund, Cowan, and Gallery 2007; Fischer 2007; Höglund 2009; Reilly 2002; Sisk and Reynolds 1998. 51. See Arriola and Johnson 2011, 41; Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2014, 172. 52. Taylor, Pevehouse, and Straus 2017. 53. Hyde  2012. 54. Hyde 2011b, 2012, 45. 55. Hyde 2012, 58. 56. Hyde and Marinov 2012. 57. See Kerr 2013, 2014; Kerr and Lührmann 2017. 58. Höglund, Jarstad, and Kovacs 2009. 59. Kerr 2013; von Borzyskowski 2016. 60. Hyde  2012. 61. See www.ec-undp-electoralassistance.org/blog/2017/12/20/liberia-organizes-atwo-day-refresher-training-workshop-for-the-necs-hearing-clerks-and-hearingofficers/. 62. Von Borzyskowski 2016. 63. Hyde 2011b, 76. 64. Kelley 2012, 72. 65. Hyde 2011b.

NOTES TO PAGES 53–63      193

66. For deterring fraud on election-day, see Alvarez, Hall, and Hyde 2008, 211; Hyde 2007. Note that some irregularities may just be displaced into neighboring, unobserved electoral districts (Ichino and Schündeln 2012). 67. Kammerud 2011, 163, emphasis in original. 68. Simpser 2013; Bjornlund 2004, 281–83; Beaulieu and Hyde 2009, 400–401; Kelley 2012, 78–80. 69. Kelley 2012, 100–101. 70. Hyde 2007, 2011b. 71. “Long Term and EU Observation Mission Statement Condemning Violent Protest,” EU Press Statement for Guyana, 1 March 2001. 72. Tucker 2007. 73. See Donno 2010, 615–16; Donno 2013. 74. Von Borzyskowski and Vabulas 2019. 75. Hellquist 2014. 76. Hyde 2011b, 100–125. 77. Hyde 2011b, 120. 78. For detailed background to technical assistance, see Ludwig 1995, 2004; Kammerud 2011; Vickery 2011; Norris 2014, 201–2; Norris 2017, 65. 79. IO monitors usually issue press statements about the validity of the election process and outcome shortly after the election takes place. Longer statements, containing details and recommendations, are issued weeks after the election, and interim statements also may be issued depending on context. For simplicity, “report” here denotes any authoritative public statement by monitors after the election. 80. Hyde and Marinov 2014, 337. 81. See Carothers 1997, 23–25; Hyde 2012, 53. 82. Robertson 2015; Bush and Prather 2017. 83. Most manipulation is executed by incumbents and most incumbents win elections. See Gandhi and Lust-Okar 2009, 412; Simpser 2013, 76; Beaulieu and Hyde 2009, 400–402. 84. See Tucker 2007; Przeworski 1991. 85. See Kuntz and Thompson 2009, 256–57; Kuran 1995, 247; Trejo 2014. 86. Lohmann 1994, 50. 87. See Tucker 2007; Przeworski 1991, 2006; Weingast 1997. 88. Lührmann 2016, 2018. 89. Vickery 2011. 90. Birch 2011, 122. 91. Norris 2015, 151–52, 158. 92. Norris 2015, 159. 93. Opitz, Fjelde, and Höglund 2013. 94. Offe 1999, summarized in Warren 1999, 6. 95. Warren 1999, 7. 96. Laakso 2007; see also Fearon and Laitin 2003, 86. 97. Interview with Elizabeth Cote, IFES country director Guinea. 98. For example, IFES organized soccer matches in East Timor 2007 to “encourage friendships across clubs” and “promote peace.” BELUN-EVER report No. 4, released 9 August 2007, 6. As for their impact on attitudes and behavior, local civil society organizations (who had implemented these matches) noted “youth showing respect for each other at parties where there were previous tendencies for violence to occur.” BELUN EVER in Timor-Leste Final Report, 21 December 2007, 9. 99. Pastor 1999b. 100. Interview in Aljazeera, available at http://aje.me/ZZ3NOg.

194       NOTES TO PAGES 63–73

101. On the color revolutions, see Tucker 2007; Thompson and Kuntz 2004; Kuntz and Thompson 2009; Hyde and Marinov 2014; Kuhn 2012. 102. Missingness on control variables reduces the sample in some of the regressions. 103. For multi-round elections, only the first round is coded; follow-up rounds are not coded because in practice it often remains unclear in such cases to which round violence is related, which risks double/multiple-counting and thus inflating the actual number of distinct cases. 104. Hyde and Marinov 2012, variable nelda11. 105. Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2014, 167; Hyde and Marinov 2014, 340; Norris 2014, 156; Fjelde and Höglund 2016, 312; Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2018, 471. 106. State Dept. Human Rights reports are usually issued in February or March of the subsequent year. Fraud measures based on that are in Kelley 2010 (QED); Daxecker 2012, 510; Smidt 2016, 232–33. 107. For example, sources contained in Keesing’s Record of World Events; see appendix 1C. 108. Donno 2013, 203; Beaulieu 2014, 143. 109. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)’s Social Disturbance Database. 110. Long  1997. 111. For a similar application, see Hultman, Kathman, and Shannon 2014. 112. Kumar and Ottaway 1998; Kumar 1998; Gillies 2011. 113. Flores and Nooruddin 2016, ch. 7. 1 14. I say “treatment” in quotation marks because this language is usually used for random assignment (in experiments), but this book does not use random ­a ssignment. 115. Some have been successful in teaming up with individual observer groups for random assignment to examine within-country variation for individual elections. See Hyde 2007, 2010, 2011b. 116. Von Borzyskowski 2016. 117. These models build on prior research about selection (Hyde (2011, 77); von Borzyskowski 2016). 118. Imbens and Rubin 2015; using etregress in Stata 14. 119. For a similar application on UN election assistance, see Lührmann 2016. The outcome model (predicting violence intensity) uses a linear regression augmented with the endogenous treatment. To accommodate this model, the dependent variable is the logged casualty count. 120. Hyde and Marinov 2012. 121. For data sources and coding, see the appendix to this chapter. 122. Lührmann  2016. 123. Having attempted to collect UN project budget data consistently has proven unsuccessful as information varies even within individual projects and only a small share of projects documents offer such information in the first place. I leave these efforts to future research. 124. ICAI 2012, 8; Lührmann 2018, 2; Birch and Muchlinski 2018, 392; Bjornlund 2004, 54; Ludwig 1995, 342–43; UNDP 2012, 135; von Borzyskowski 2016. 125. Birch and Muchlinski 2018, 392. 2. SHAPING THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT

1. Arriola and Johnson 2011, 2. 2. Collier 2009; Collier et al. 2003; Kumar and Ottaway 1998; Kumar 1998; Gillies 2011; Flores and Nooruddin 2016, ch. 7.

NOTES TO PAGES 73–90      195

3. For count data, standard linear regression tends to produce inefficient and biased estimates (Long 1997), so standard OLS models are not run. 4. In the five hundred elections in 130 non-advanced democracies from 1990 to 2003 worldwide, 67 percent had observation and 18 percent had technical assistance. Technical support has become more frequent since the early 2000s. See von Borzyskowski 2016, 266. 5. The number of observations used in the analysis is lower than in the full sample (appendix table 1C.2) and varies across columns due to missing information in the observation variable (based on Nelda data) and some of the control variables. 6. Daxecker 2014, 238. 7. Another potential explanation for the difference in results is that Daxecker (2014) separates out election-day from the period before election-day. However, even replicating the models with separate measures of the dependent variables results in negative correlations for both pre-election minus election-day and election-day itself. 8. I use information criteria from model fit statistics to compare the standard and the zero-inflated models because recent work by Wilson (2015) has shown that the Vuong test is inappropriate for testing zero inflation because the negative binomial is not a nested model of the zero-inflated negative binomial. Xu et al. (2015) suggest that the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) can be used to choose between these models and outperforms the Vuong test. 9. The alternative count models are standard negative binomial, standard Poisson, and zero-inflated Poisson. 10. In this specification, the coefficient of interest loses significance in models 5, 7, and 8. However, this is due to reduced sample size (and thus less statistical power) rather than the changed control variable. 1 1. Collier  2009. 1 2. Hyde 2011b. 1 3. Hyde 2011b. 14. Von Borzyskowski 2016. 15. Hyde 2011b, 77. 16. Von Borzyskowski 2016. 1 7. UNDP  2009. 18. Fortna 2003, 101. 19. I use Stata’s etregress command with maximum likelihood estimation; to accommodate this model, the dependent variable (casualty count) is logged. 20. In model 5, observation is not an endogenous treatment variable because only one variable at a time can be modeled as endogenous. 21. In column 3 the Wald test is not significant, but note that all three predictors of selection added to columns 4 and 5 are important (those are wealth, previously observed, and the time trend. 22. Carothers 1997, 18. 23. For pre-election violence at these elections, see Keesing’s Record of World Events, pp. 38084, 43892, 38898. 24. Ihonvbere 1996, 358. 25. Asunka et al. 2017. 26. Lansana Fofana, “Politics-Guinea: Violence Mars Elections Campaign,” 11 December 1998, Inter Press Service. 2 7. Keesing’s Record of World Events, pp. 39626, 39674, 42659. 28. State Department Human Rights Report, Guinea 1998. 29. The UN had provided assistance for the 2002 elections at the end of the civil war. While the 2007 elections were organized by domestic institutions, they were funded about 70 percent by the international community.

196       NOTES TO PAGES 91–108

30. Almami Cyllah, IFES’ Africa regional director, “Talking Points for International Peace Institute’s Conference on Elections in Africa: Challenges and Prospects,” New York, 19 July 2011. 31. GEVD; Keesing’s Record of World Events, p. 40934. 32. IFES  2009. 33. European Union Election Observation Mission 2007a, 5, 20, 21. 34. UNDP 2005, 7–10; IFES 2009, 1, 3, 5. 35. European Union Election Observation Mission 2007a, 18. 36. European Union Election Observation Mission 2007a, 17. 37. IFES  2009. 38. Almami Cyllah, “Talking Points for International Peace Institute’s Conference on Elections in Africa: Challenges and Prospects,” New York, 19 July 2011. 39. UNDP 2009, 87. 40. UNDP  2009. 41. Burchard 2015, 108–9. 42. Claes and von Borzyskowski 2017, 2018. 43. Fromayan 2008, 41. 44. I thank both UNMIL and UNDP staff for sharing expertise and background information during interviews in Monrovia in March and November 2017. 45. See www.ec-undp-electoralassistance.org/blog/2017/12/20/liberia-organizes-atwo-day-refresher-training-workshop-for-the-necs-hearing-clerks-and-hearing-officers/. 3. THE DARK SIDE

1. Hyde 2011b; Hyde and Marinov 2014, 343; Hyde and Marinov 2012, nelda47; Hyde 2012, 45. 2. Hyde and Marinov 2014, 340; Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2014, 167. 3. See Arriola and Johnson 2011, 41; and Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2014, 172. 4. Taylor, Pevehouse, and Straus 2017, 406, 408–9; see also Straus and Taylor 2012, 20–21. 5. Follow-up analyses also test for—and cast doubt on—endogeneity more directly. 6. In column 2, condemnation and fraud are jointly significant; the inclusion of fraud increase multicollinearity. 7. When using a hurdle estimator for all models (logit and negative binomial), the coefficient of interest is still positive but reduces in significance. However, the model fit statistics indicate that the negative binomial model is not preferred. 8. Vogt et al. 2015. 9. V-Dem variable e_v2xel_frefair_3C. Note that this fraud measure, like many others, is possibly post-treatment, in contrast to the main measure of concerns about election fraud during the pre-election period from the main analyses. 10. Kelley 2010 (DIEM variable maxA1). 11. Tracy Wilkinson, “In Honduras, Vote Results Are Disputed.” Los Angeles Times, 26 November 2013, A3. 12. Replicating these analyses with V-Dem data on loser challenges (binary or 5-point scale variable) yields similar results. 13. Chernykh 2014; Beaulieu 2014; Hyde and Marinov 2014. 14. This is estimated from model 4 with all other variables at their means. 15. This is based on model 3 of table 3A.2 with all variables set to their means. 16. Another potential concern is spuriousness (that fraud may drive both condemnation and violence); I address this in more detail elsewhere (von Borzyskowski 2019).

NOTES TO PAGES 109–115      197

17. Kelley 2012, 198. IO-level measures are dropped because the present analysis is on the country-year level. The variable legal problems is dropped because many observations have missing data. 18. I use Stata’s etregress command and the dependent variable is the logged casualty count. 19. Kelley 2012, 75. 20. I was able to collect these data for 71 of the 138 observed elections in Africa (1990– 2008). Data are coded from observer reports and websites. 21. Carothers 1997, 18. 22. More extensive robustness checks are in von Borzyskowski 2019. 23. UNDP 2007a, 2007b. 24. Both elections had serious fraud on election-day, as measured by Beck et al. 2001. 25. European Union Election Observation Mission 2007a, 7; European Union Election Observation Mission 2007b, 31–32. One difference is the vote margin: Kenya’s election was seven percentage points closer than Sierra Leone’s, potentially making claims of a stolen election in Kenya more credible than in Sierra Leone. While it is not possible to rule this out (and it is impossible to find an election that was exactly identical on all dimensions), statistical results are substantively similar using vote margins instead of loser’s vote share. 26. European Union Election Observation Mission 2007a, 1, 7. 27. Kandeh 2008, 628. 28. Jeffrey Gettleman, “Riots Batter Kenya as Rivals Declare Victory,” New York Times, 30 December 2007. 29. Human Rights Watch 2008, 22. 30. See Jeffrey Gettleman, “Tribal Rivalry Boils Over after Kenyan Election,” New York Times, 30 December 2007. 31. “Violence Erupts after Kibaki Sworn In,” The Nation, 31 December 2007. EU 2008a, 1. 32. EU 2008a, 1, 3. 33. “Britain Urges Kenyan Leaders to Bring End to Violence,” Agence France Press, 1 January 2008. 34. “EU Says Kenya Poll Flawed, Death Toll Nears 260,” The Daily Star, 2 January 2008. 35. See “EU Calls for Inquiry into Allegedly Flawed Kenyan Poll Results,” Deutsche Welle, 1 January 2008; Kenneth Ogosia, “Raila Calls for Million Man Protest,” All Africa, 31 December 2007. 36. “Kenya under Pressure as Death Toll Rises,” ABC News, 1 January 2008. 37. “Kenyans in U.S. Protest Disputed Election Results,” Voice of America, 3 January 2008. 38. Atwood 2012, 22. 39. Kelley 2012, 72–73 40. Straus and Taylor 2012, 27. 41. Young-Jin Choi, “Statement on the Certification,” UNOCI, 3 December 2010, available at www.un.org/ en/peacekeeping/missions/unoci/documents/unoci_srsg_certification_en_03122010.pdf. 42. Ouattara said, “All Ivorians know that Mr. Gabgbo has lost the elections, and this was certified by the United Nations.” CSIS 2010, 7. 43. See Union Europeenne Mission d’Observation Electorale en Cote d’Ivoire, Election Présidentielle 2010, 1–2.; Union Europeenne Mission d’Observation Electorale en Cote d’Ivoire, Declaration Preliminaire Second Tour, 30 November 2010. See also Carter Center 2010, 7, 9.

198       NOTES TO PAGES 115–121

44. See “Cote d’Ivoire: Statement by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton,” 4 December 2010, available at http://allafrica.com/stories/201012040007.html; and Carter Center, “Statement on the Cote d’Ivoire Election,” 4 December 2010, available at www. cartercenter.org/news/pr/cotedivoire-120410.html, accessed 5 November 2013. 44. “EU Foreign Affairs Chief Recognizes Ouattara Victory,” Agence France Presse, 3 December 2010. 45. See “Kinshasa: ACP-EU declare support for Alassane Ouattara,” Patriotic Vanguard, 5 December 2010; Korva Coleman, “EU to Ivory Coast’s Gbagbo: Get Out,” NPR, 17 December 2010, available at www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/12/17/132132112/ eu-to-ivory-coasts-gbagbo-get-out. 46. “Cote d’Ivoire: Ouattara Claims Victory as Gbagbo Backlash Mounts,” Radio France Internationale, 3 December 2010, available at www.english.rfi.fr/africa/20101203-ouattaraclaims-victory-Gbagbo-backlash-mounts. 47. See Cote d’Ivoire events 47983, 47978–47980 in ACLED (Raleigh, Linke, and Hegre 2012); and events 4370244, 4370245 in SCAD (Salehyan and Hendrix 2016). 48. Tula World, 8 April 1997; New York Post, 28 November 2000. 49. “Incumbent Obiang Declares Victory in Equatorial Guinea Vote,” Voice of America, 1 December 2009; New York Beacon, 3 December 2009. 50. Africa News Service, 29 March 2001, 27 February 2006. 51. Africa News Service, 6 and 21 May 2003. 52. Associated Press, 28 February 2006; New York Times, 9 December 2010. 53. The Australian, 12 December 2011. 54. Associated Press, 25 April 2007. 55. Washington Post, 2 March 1999. 56. Washington Post, 2 February 1999; Panafrican News Agency, 15 March 1999. 57. Philadelphia Inquirer, 4 March 1999; Keesing’s Record of World Events, 1999, p. 42824. 58. Africa News, 9 November 1992. 59. Keesing’s Record of World Events, 1992, pp. 39130, 39179. 60. Globe and Mail, 11 July 1996; Keesing’s Record of World Events, 1996, p. 41178. 61. This violence was not preceded by a condemnation. Lindberg 2006, 60–61. 62. EISA post-election statement, 11 April 2008, 1. 63. State Department Human Rights Report 2009. 64. International Election Observation Mission, Preliminary Statement, 3 November 2003, 1, available at www.osce.org/odihr/elections/georgia/13138. This was a joint mission composed of the parliamentary assemblies of the OSCE, the Council of Europe, and the European Parliament. 65. Tucker  2007. 66. EU 2005, 37–40. 67. Carter Center 2009, 55. 68. “Ethiopian Protesters Massacred,” BBC, 19 October 2006, available at http://news. bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6064638.stm, accessed 10 January 2015. 69. Mark Fineman, “70,000 Rally in Mexico to Protest Vote Fraud,” Los Angeles Times, 28 August 1994. 70. NDI/IRI 1989, v, 79. 71. See “2005 Ethiopian Election: A Look Back,” Voice of America, 16 May 2010; “Russia Concerned over Kyrgyz Protests,” Agence France Presse, 21 March 2005. 72. Anderson et al. 2005, 6. 73. Thomas Grove, “Azeri Police Beat, Detain Demonstrators after Vote Protest Rally,” Reuters, 12 October 2013.

NOTES TO PAGES 121–137      199

74. Vanora Bennett, “Armenian Protests Turn Violent,” Los Angeles Times, 26 September 1996. 75. Hyde and Marinov 2014; Kuntz and Thompson 2009. 76. UN 2005b, 4. 4. THE UPSIDE

1. This is because street protests can be violent themselves or might be peaceful but provoke clashes or repression by supporters of the winner or government forces. 2. Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski 2014, 167; Hyde and Marinov 2014, 340. 3. Data from Coppedge et al. 2017. 4. Predicted from model 3 in table 4.1 with other variables set at their mean. 5. UN 2010, 1. 6. Lührmann 2016, 15. 7. Coppedge et al. 2017. 8. Coppedge et al. 2017. 9. P-values from the Wald test of independent equations (ρ = 0), Pr(χ 2) are smaller than 0.01 in 5 of the twelve models, 0.03 other models, and insignificant in three independence models of commission. 10. P-values from the Wald test of independent equations are all above 0.17. 1 1. A third possibility is that election assistance does not influence challenges at all. A reading of cases, including those featured later in this chapter, cast doubt on that. However, distinguishing the different forms of loser challenges and its drivers is a promising research question ripe for future work. Currently, such fine-grained data are limited to elections in Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union states (Chernykh 2014). 12. For a more detailed description, see Claes and von Borzyskowski 2018. 13. Data from World Bank Development Indicators (2012). In 2011, Guyana’s GDP per capita rose to $1,200. The population size is around 750,000 people. 14. The remaining population is of mixed heritage (17 percent) and of Amerindian descent (9 percent). 15. GEVD; see von Borzyskowski 2018. 16. See IFES 1993, 15–16; UNDP 2010a, 25; UNDP 2011b. During this period (1992–2011) the pre-election periods were largely peaceful except for two casualties before the 1992 election. 17. Commonwealth, “Hopes for Peaceful Elections in Guyana as Media Strike Deal,” 13 April 2010, emphasis added, available at http://secretariat.thecommonwealth.org/new s/34580/34581/222429/1304codeofconductguyana.htm, accessed 6 April 2014. 18. GECOM head Surujbally, quoted in Chaubey 2011, 2. 19. Levitsky and Way 2010, 147. 20. International advisers from the Carter Center and the Commonwealth advised to postpone the election because they deemed preparations insufficient. 21. IFES 1993, 15–16. 2 2. Ibid. 23. Levitsky and Way 2010, 149. On the 1992 election, also see Carroll and Pastor 1993. 24. IFES 1998, 1, 26. UNDP coordinated between international observers. Two UNDP staff members were present but these were resident representatives, who also coordinate other economic, health, and education programs in the host country. Also see the government’s account of elections, which does not mention the UNDP for 1997, at www.guyana. org/post_election97.htm, accessed 6 April 2014. 25. For a summary of all statements, see www.guyana.org/post_election97.htm, accessed 6 April 2014.

200       NOTES TO PAGES 138–144

26. EAB, “Statement by the Government of Guyana on the Post-Election Situation,” www.guyana.org/post_election97.htm. 27. Elections were held on 15 December 1997 with results announced 30 December 1997. Riots lasted into the new year. 28. See www.caricom.org/jsp/pressreleases/pres17_98.jsp. 29. Chaubey 2011, 3. 30. Chaubey 2011, 4. 31. EAB 2007, 13. 32. International monitors were the European Union, the Carter Center, and the Commonwealth. These IOs supported a domestic monitors under an umbrella organization, the EAB. 33. Violence data from GEVD; see von Borzyskowski 2018; see also Chaubey 2011, 2; Commonwealth 2006, 10, 37; and “A Small Riot in Guyana,” The Economist, 12 April 2001, available at www.economist.com/node/569348, accessed 6 April 2014. 34. Much of the following discussion draws on Chaubey 2011. 35. Chaubey 2011, 6. 36. Chaubey 2011, 11. 37. Chaubey 2011, 8. 38. Chaubey 2011, 7. 39. Commonwealth quoted in Chaubey 2011, 12. 40. EAB 2007, 23. 41. For example, the fourth EAB-EVER report stated, “People’s Progressive Party/ Civic (PPP/C) party supporters stoned the house of and severely beat a People’s National Congress/Reform One Guyana (PNC/R-1G) party candidate on August 8th at Hope West, Enmore, East Coast Demerara; PPP/C supporters were caught tearing down the posters of PNC/R-1G by the supporters of the PNC/R-1G at Industrial Site, Ruimveldt, Georgetown on August 11.” EAB 2006a. 42. Chaubey 2011, 10. 43. GECOM release on 8 August 2006, available at www.gecom.org.gy/archived/pdf/ release_polling_safeguards.pdf, accessed 6 April 2014. 44. Ibid. 45. Commonwealth 2006, 41. 46. UNDP 2009, 68. 47. EAB 2006b, 2. 48. Commonwealth 2006, 52. 49. UNDP 2009, 67. 50. Chaubey 2011, 2. 51. Limited UNDP assistance consisted of US$850,000 for the 2011 elections and US$400,000 for the 2015 elections instead of the nearly $4 million and comprehensive approach for the 2006 elections. See UNDP 2012, 38; UNDP 2011b; UNDP 2015. 52. The Carter Center attended in 1992, 2001, and 2006. The EU attended in 2001. The Commonwealth of Nations attended in 1997, 2001, and 2006. 53. UNDP 2014, 77. 54. Patterns of pre-election violence are quite similar, with high casualties before the February 1996 and 2001 elections and fewer casualties in the June 1996 and 2008 elections. The non-assisted 1991 election had several hundred pre-election casualties. The exceptions are the 2014 and 2018 elections, which had high pre-election casualties. 55. Anwar Hashim, “The Awami League’s Post-Election Stance,” The Independent, reprinted in Holiday, 30 November 2001. 56. UN 2010, 47; Transparency International Bangladesh, “Tracking the Election Process: An Analysis of the Violations of Electoral Code of Conduct by the Candidates of

NOTES TO PAGES 144–157      201

the Postponed Ninth Parliamentary Election,” available at www.ti-bangladesh.org/beta3/ images/max_file/rp_ES_ElectionTracking3_07.pdf. 57. UNDP 2010b, 47. 58. UNDP 2014, 77; UNDP 2010b, 56, 74–107. 59. NDI, “NDI Election Watch: Bangladesh 2007 Elections, Issue no. 1,” 21 December 2006, page 2, available at www.ndi.org/sites/default/files/2103_bd_watch1_122106. pdf, accessed 25 November 2018. 60. IFES, “Assessment of the Photo Voter List in Bangladesh: Final Report,” 30 November 2008. 61. UNDP 2010b, 110. 62. UNDP 2010b, 85, 110. 63. UNDP 2010b, 111. 64. UNDP 2010b, 66. 65. UNDP 2010b, 120. 66. GEVD. 67. UNDP 2014, 84–85. 68. “Clashes and Boycott Mar Bangladesh Election,” BBC News Asia, 5 January 2014. 69. Anjana Pasricha, “Opposition Boycott Casts Doubt about Credibility of Bangladesh Elections,” Voice of America, 2 January 2014. 70. Gilligan and Sergenti 2008; Fortna 2008. 71. Hultman, Kathman, and Shannon 2013, 2014. 72. Doyle and Sambanis 2000, 2006; Jarstad and Sisk 2008. 73. Kumar 1998; Nooruddin and Flores 2016; Brancati and Snyder 2011, 2013; von Borzyskowski and Saunders 2019. 74. On the effect of UN multidimensional peacekeeping missions on violence, see Fortna 2008, 112. On their effect on democratization, see Fortna 2008, 65; Doyle and Sambanis 2000, 790–91; the latter measure “strict” mission success as an end to violence and a minimum level of democracy. In some analyses peacebuilding (meaning multi­ dimensional missions) emerges as the only effective UN tool; see Doyle and Sambanis 2000, 790–91. CONCLUSION

1. Martin and Simmons 1998. 2. Gourevitch 1978; Putnam 1988. 3. See Hyde and O’Mahoney 2010; Hyde 2011b; Kelley 2012; Ichino and Schündeln 2012. 4. See Gourevitch 1978; Pevehouse 2005. 5. See Fortna 2003, 2008; Kydd 2003, 2006; Beardsley 2008; Regan 2002. 6. See Hyde and Kelley 2011; Stremlau and Carroll 2011; Kelley 2012. 7. See Savun and Tirone 2011; Abouharb and Cingranelli 2006; Hartzell, Hoddie, and Bauer 2010; Simpser and Donno 2012; Busch and Reinhardt 2003; Shaffer, Sanchez, and Rosenberg 2008; Daxecker 2012, 2014. 8. The main exceptions are Goldstone et al. 2008; Newman and Rich 2004; Darnolf 2011. 9. See Ludwig 1995, 2004; Santiso 2002; Steinorth 2011, 318–19. Recent exceptions are Lührmann 2018; Birch and Muchlinski 2018. 10. Finkel, Pérez-Liñán, and Seligson 2007; Kalyvitis and Vlachaki 2012; Scott and Steele 2011; Carnegie and Marinov 2017. 11. Dietrich and Wright 2015; Perez-Linan, Finkel, and Seligson 2016. 12. Lührmann, McMann, and Ham 2017. 13. Dahl 1989, 233, 95.

202       NOTES TO PAGES 158–177

14. For a discussion of domestic political will and the selection dynamics underlying international election support, see von Borzyskowski 2016. 15. Carothers 2015a, 72. 16. Hyde and Marinov 2014. 17. Von Borzyskowski and Kuhn 2017; see also Burchard 2015, 139, 157. 18. UN 2010, 1. 19. USAID 2010, 2013; ECDPM 2012. 20. Data from Hyde and Marinov 2012, nelda49. 21. OAS 2001b; Drennan 2015. 22. UN 2005a, 2005b. 23. UN 2005a, 4. 24. See also Hyde 2011b; Norris 2017, ch. 5. 25. Hyde  2012. 26. Hyde 2012. On a parallel finding on human rights NGOs, see Hill, Moore, and Mukherjee 2013. 27. Kelley 2012, 72b. 28. See UNDP 2009; USAID 2010, 2013. 29. For the USIP workshop, see www.usip.org/education-training/courses/ preventing-electoral-violence-asia-tools-practitioners-and-policymakers. 30. Creative Associates International 2015; Fischer 2017. 31. Pastor 1999b, 18. 32. That is, if citizens do not trust their country’s institutions at all, they may protest regardless of what international observers say. If citizens have full trust, they may not protest regardless of monitors’ reports. Therefore the effect of observer verdicts on violence intensity after elections may vary by institutional trust. APPENDIXES TO CHAPTER 1

1. The words “consent” and “concede” both mean that the respective player gives up, but different words were chosen to reduce ambiguity in the text as to which player and part of the game is referred to. 2. Let ci ∈ (0, 1) and cc < cL < 1. That is, I assume that the marginal cost of challenging is smaller than the fighting cost and smaller than the value of holding office. 3. The loser challenges as long as the payoff from challenge and concede (1 − cc) is greater than the payoff from consenting to the result (0). 4. Straus and Taylor 2012, 21–22. 5. Raleigh, Linke, and Hegre 2012. 6. Salehyan et al. 2012; Salehyan and Hendrix 2016. 7. For example, Daxecker 2012; Smidt 2016. 8. Von Borzyskowski and Wahman 2018. 9. Von Borzyskowski and Wahman 2018. 1 0. The New York Times, The Economist, The BBC, The Financial Times, The Guardian, Le Monde Diplomatique. 1 1. Africa News, Al-Ahram Weekly, Middle East International, ArabNews.com, Caribbean and Central America Report. 1 2. The Hindu, The Times of India Online, China Daily, The Bangkok Post, Daily Mail and Guardian (South Africa), El Pais. 13. The BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, Radio Free Europe. 14. Elections Around The World, United Nations Information Service. 15. Donno 2014, 203; Beaulieu 2014, 143. 16. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)’s Social Disturbance Database.

NOTES TO PAGES 177–180      203

17. WNC is perhaps better known as a service provided by the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS); WNC shut down in late 2013. 1 8. Lindberg  2009. 19. See, e.g., UN Secretary General 2009, 17–18. UN’s websites are UNDP Electoral Assistance website available at http://toolkit-elections.unteamworks.org/?q=node/175; UNDP Country websites available at www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home.html; and UNDP Project website available at http://open.undp.org/#2015/filter/focus_area-2.

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Index

Abubakar, Atiku, 117 Afghanistan, 26, 33, 35 – 36, 149, 159, 162 – 63 African Union (AU), 23, 96, 115, 119, 159 AfroBarometer, 134 Aggie, 163 Ahmed, Iajuddin, 145 AidData, 69, 156 Akayev, Askar, 25 Algeria civil war history, 67 election violence, 8, 33, 36, 67, 95 gross domestic product (GDP), 8 post-conflict environment, 67, 95 All Nigeria People’s Party, 116 All People’s Congress (APC), 90 All Progressive Grand Alliance, 116 Angola civil war history, 28, 44 election violence, 28, 44, 101 international election support, 44 post-conflict environment, 28, 44 technical election assistance, 21, 79 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21, 79 Arab Spring, 23 Armenia, 121 Asia Foundation, 145 Awami League (AL), 143 – 47 Azerbaijan, 121 – 22 ballot box manipulation, 14, 36, 54, 57 – 60, 112, 129, 133, 136, 140, 145 Bangladesh Asia Foundation support, 145 Awami League (AL), 143 – 47 Bangladesh election commission (BEC), 25, 142, 145 – 47 Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), 143 – 47 democracy levels, 143 economic environment, 143 election loser challenges, 143 – 44 election observation, 53 – 54, 143 – 47 election violence, 53 – 54, 143 – 47

European Union (EU) observation, 147 independence, 143, 147 International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) support, 53 – 54 population, 142 – 43 Preparation of Electoral Rolls with Photographs (PERP) project, 145 Support to the Electoral Process in Bangladesh (SEPB) project, 146 technical election assistance, 25, 142 – 147, 154 United Nations (UN) elections assistance, 143 – 47 United States Agency for International Development (USAID) support, 145 voter education, 143 voter registration, 25, 145 – 47, 162 Benin democracy levels, 22 election observation, 88 – 89, 98 election violence, 9, 88 – 89 gross domestic product (GDP), 9 technical election assistance, 21 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21 Berewa, Solomon, 112 – 13, 154 Besigye, Kizza, 116 Birch, Sarah, 11 – 12, 62 Biya, Paul, 117 Boakai, Joseph, 95 Boko Haram, 36, 38 Bolivia democracy levels, 22 election violence, 9 gross domestic product (GDP), 9 Botswana civil war history, 68 democracy levels, 22 – 23 election violence, 33, 67 technical election assistance, 79 boycotts, 10, 29, 95, 119, 143 – 46 Bratton, Michael, 26 Brazil, 22 Britain, 135, 139 Buhari, Muhammadu, 116 Bulldozer Revolution, 119

221

222       INDEX

Burkina Faso election violence, 9, 41 gross domestic product (GDP), 9 Burnham, Forbes, 137 Burundi election violence, 38 technical election assistance, 79 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 79 Cambodia, 44, 122 Cameroon election loser challenges, 117 – 18 election observation, 2, 117, 122 election violence, 2, 117 – 18 National Democratic Institute (NDI) observation, 117 candidate registration, 14, 16, 25, 39, 44, 56, 91, 153, 161 capacity. See election commissions; capacity levels Cape Verde, 79 Cardenas, Lázaro, 120 Caribbean Community (CARICOM), 138 Carothers, Thomas, 2, 6, 88, 158 Carter, Jimmy, 120 Carter Center (CC), 4, 96, 106, 110, 115, 117, 120, 122 – 23, 137, 159, 161 Center for Democratic Governance (CDG), 97 Chile civil war history, 67 democracy levels, 23 election violence, 67 technical election assistance, 21 Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC), 95 Cold War, 4, 18, 20, 23 Collier, Paul, 8, 78 Colombia civil war history, 67 democracy levels, 23 election violence, 8, 67, 73, 95 gross domestic product (GDP), 8 post-conflict environment, 95 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 49 Commonwealth of Nations (CW), 137, 146 Commonwealth Secretariat, 48 Compoare, Blaise, 41 condemnation Côte d’Ivoire, 101, 111, 114 – 16 credibility impact, 5, 48 – 50, 55, 60 electoral loser challenge incentives, 2, 5, 18, 50, 54, 59 – 60, 100 – 101, 106 – 108, 112 – 23, 153 – 54 endogeneity, testing for, 108 – 11, 153

evidence accumulation, 58 – 59 international punishments, 54 – 55, 59, 116 Kenya, 2, 11, 29, 48, 101, 111 – 14, 118, 121, 154 percentage of observed elections, 10, 102 Sierra Leone, 29, 111 – 14, 154 See also election observation Conte, Lansana, 89 – 90 Costa Rica civil war history, 67 democracy levels, 23 election violence, 67 technical election assistance, 79 Côte d’Ivoire African Union (AU) suspension, 115 Carter Center (CC) observation, 115 civil war history, 114 – 15 democracy levels, 114 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) suspension, 115 election loser challenges, 118, 120 – 21 election observation, 4, 111, 114 – 16, 121, 159 election violence, 2, 28, 33, 95, 111, 114 – 16, 121 European Union (EU) observation, 115 Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), 114 national election commission (NEC), 115 post-conflict environment, 95, 114 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 115 voter turnout levels, 115 Cuba civil war history, 67 democracy levels, 22 election violence, 67 Guyana, relations with, 137 opposition competition, 80 technical election assistance, 21, 79 Dahl, Robert, 26, 157 Daxecker, Ursula, 77 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Carter Center (CC) observation, 117 civil unrest, 79 civil war history, 67 election loser challenges, 116 – 17 election observation, 116 – 17 election violence, 33, 44, 67, 116 – 17 post-conflict environment, 44 technical election assistance, 21, 79 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21, 79

INDEX      223

District Code of Conduct Monitoring Committees (DMC), 92 Ebola, 51, 95 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), 115 Economist, The, 1 Ecuador civil war history, 67 election violence, 9, 67 gross domestic product (GDP), 9 technical election assistance, 79 Egypt, 23 El Salvador election violence, 9, 44 gross domestic product (GDP), 9 international election support, 44 election commissions Africa, prevalence in, 23 – 24, 49, 126, 132 – 35 Bangladesh case study, 25, 142, 145 – 47 capacity levels, 14, 17 – 18, 44, 50 – 51, 53, 56 – 59, 61 – 65, 71, 90 – 92, 98, 112, 128 – 35, 146 – 47, 151, 154, 162 credibility, role of, 14, 48, 50, 61 – 65, 94, 124 – 25, 132 – 34, 146 – 47, 151, 154 – 55, 158, 162 – 63 election manipulation impunity, 42 election violence, impact on, 16 – 18, 49, 61 – 64, 106, 124 – 25, 135, 155 fraud prevention role, 49 – 50, 125 – 28, 130, 133 Guyana case study, 135 – 41 independence, 49, 61 – 62, 129 – 32 Kenya case study, 63, 112, 133 – 35, 154 Latin America, prevalence in, 23 – 24, 126, 132 – 35 Liberia case study, 50 – 51, 94 – 97, 133 – 35, 154 public trust, 14, 17, 133 – 35, 138, 146, 150 regional variation, 23 – 24 Sierra Leone case study, 90 – 92, 112 technical election assistance, impact of, 2, 15 – 16, 49 – 50, 52, 55 – 57, 60 – 64, 90, 98, 124 – 25, 128 – 35, 151, 154 – 55, 158, 162 voter education role, 57 – 58, 62 – 63, 112, 124 election observation accountability mechanism, 16, 50, 52 – 55, 57 – 58, 71, 91, 94, 97 – 99, 151, 154 – 55 Africa, prevalence in, 20 – 23, 79, 98 – 99, 101 – 3, 106, 120 African Union (AU), 23, 119, 159 Carter Center (CC), 4, 96, 106, 110, 115, 117, 120, 122 – 23, 137, 159, 161 Commonwealth of Nations (CW), 137 Commonwealth Secretariat, 48

credibility impact, 5, 18, 31, 48 – 50, 53 – 55, 57 – 59, 71, 97 – 98, 153 – 55 election violence, impact on, 2, 10 – 11, 16, 18, 52 – 55, 57 – 60, 71, 76 – 77, 85 – 91, 94, 97 – 108, 149 – 55, 158 – 62 Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA), 119 European Union (EU), 1, 4, 49, 54 – 55, 91, 106, 112 – 15, 120, 122, 147, 159, 161 fraud reduction, 1 – 2, 16, 29, 48, 52 – 54, 58 – 60, 90, 151, 160 independence, role of, 18, 48 – 50 International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), 4, 48, 53 International Republican Institute (IRI), 4, 48, 110 Latin America, prevalence in, 20 – 23, 79, 98 – 99, 101 – 2, 120 National Democratic Institute (NDI), 4, 48, 91, 96, 117, 159 Nelda data, 20, 49, 69, 102, 106 Organization of American States (OAS), 23, 48, 106, 137, 159 punishments, 54 – 55 regional variation, 20 – 21 reputation, role of, 48 – 49, 53 selection, 78 – 87, 98 – 99, 153 – 54 Southern African Development Community (SADC), 119 stability bias, 11, 99, 114, 161 See also individual countries election technical assistance. See technical election assistance election violence Africa, prevalence in, 33 – 34, 36 – 38, 47, 71, 74 – 77, 98 – 99, 101 – 3, 105, 126 – 27, 154 competition as driver, 42 – 43, 45 – 47, 64, 73 – 74, 80, 82, 86, 102 – 3, 105, 107, 125 – 27, 129 – 30, 152 conceptual differences, 32 – 36 conflict history as driver, 42 – 45, 47, 64, 73 – 76, 78, 81 – 82, 86 – 87, 102, 104, 109, 114, 125, 127, 129 – 30, 152 economic development as driver, 8 – 9, 11, 42, 44 – 45, 47, 64, 73 – 75, 78 – 82, 86 – 87, 102, 104, 107, 109, 114, 125, 127, 129 – 30, 152 election commissions, impact of, 16 – 18, 49, 60 – 63, 106, 124 – 25, 135, 155 election credibility, role of, 31, 39, 50, 57, 61, 150, 153 – 55

224       INDEX

election violence (continued) election observation, impact of, 2, 10 – 11, 16, 18, 52 – 55, 57 – 60, 71, 76 – 77, 85 – 91, 94, 97 – 108, 149 – 55, 158 – 62 Election Violence Education and Resolution (EVER) program, 140 election-related fatalities, 13, 17 – 18, 28, 32 – 33, 36 – 38, 72 – 73, 76 – 78, 89, 95, 101, 112, 115, 117, 136, 144, 152 ethnic fractionalization as driver, 42, 45, 47, 64, 73 – 74, 86, 102, 104 – 5, 114, 125, 127, 152 executive constraints as driver, 42 – 43, 47, 64, 73 – 74, 78, 81 – 82, 86, 102, 104 – 5, 107, 114, 125, 127, 129 – 30, 152 fraud as driver, 9 – 11, 42 – 43, 45 – 47, 49, 64 – 65, 102, 104 – 5, 107, 109, 114, 121, 125 – 28, 130, 153 Global Election Violence Dataset, 67, 72 incumbents, role of, 35, 42 – 43, 46 – 47, 64, 73 – 74, 86, 105, 107, 130 intimidation, 3, 14 – 15, 26 – 27, 32 – 33, 36, 38, 119 – 20, 130, 137, 140 Latin America, prevalence in, 33 – 34, 46, 71, 74 – 76, 98 – 99, 101, 126 – 28 mobilization focal points, 9, 18, 38, 59 – 60, 100, 119, 121, 152 natural resources as driver, 42, 44 – 45, 47, 64, 73 – 74, 86, 102, 104, 114, 125, 127, 152 past election violence as driver, 42, 45, 47, 63 – 64, 73, 75 – 76, 81 – 82, 86 – 87, 102 – 4, 114, 125, 127, 152 poll type as driver, 42, 45 – 47, 64, 73 – 74, 81 – 82, 86 – 87, 102, 104, 107, 114, 125, 127, 129 – 30, 152 population size as driver, 42, 45, 47, 64, 73 – 74, 78, 86, 102, 104, 114, 125, 127, 152 post-vote motivations, 3, 31 – 32, 36, 38, 39 – 42, 57 – 64, 151 pre-vote motivations, 3, 31 – 32, 36, 38 – 40, 41 – 42, 52 – 56, 71, 151 targeted stakeholders, 32 – 33 technical election assistance, role of, 5, 11 – 12, 50, 52, 55, 57 – 58, 60 – 64, 71, 76 – 77, 81 – 99, 124 – 28, 132 – 35, 147 – 48, 150 – 55, 158 – 59, 162 temporality, 3, 13, 32, 90 vote choice, impact on, 15, 38 – 40, 42, 151 voter turnout, impact on, 3, 15, 26 – 27, 36, 38 – 40, 42, 54, 58, 71, 98, 151 See also individual countries Election Violence Education and Resolution (EVER) program, 140 Electoral Assistance Bureau (EAB), 137, 140 – 41

Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA), 119 Endara, Guillermo, 120 EPR data, 126 – 28 Equatorial Guinea election loser challenges, 116, 118 election observation, 116, 159 election violence, 118 technical election assistance, 79 Ershad, Hussain Muhammad, 143 Ethiopia Carter Center (CC) observation, 120 civil war history, 67 election loser challenges, 118, 120 – 21 election observation, 2, 120 – 21, 159 – 60 election violence, 2, 27, 67, 118, 120, 160 European Union (EU) observation, 120 international election support, 44 Ethnic Power Relations dataset, 105 European Centre For Election Support (ECES), 7 European Commission (EC), 7 European Union (EU), 1, 4, 7, 48, 54 – 55, 70, 91, 106, 112 – 15, 120, 122, 147, 159, 161 executive elections, 42, 46 – 47 Falae, Olu, 117 Fjelde, Hanne, 62 – 63 Fortna, Page, 81 Forum of Democratic Change, 116 Fru Ndi, John, 117 Gabon election observation, 2 election violence, 2, 8 gross domestic product (GDP), 8 Gbagbo, Laurent, 114 – 15 Georgia, 25, 118 – 19 Ghana election observation, 88 – 89, 98 election violence, 9, 38, 88 – 89 gross domestic product (GDP), 9 Global Election Violence Dataset (GEVD), 66, 71 gross domestic product (GDP), 8 – 9, 65, 79 – 80, 109, 113 – 14, 142 – 43 Guatemala, 67 Guinea democracy levels, 89 election observation, 89 – 90, 98, 110, 159 election violence, 36, 89 – 90, 98, 153 International Republican Institute (IRI) observation, 110 technical election assistance, 79 youth voter initiatives, 63

INDEX      225

Guyana Carter Center (CC) observation, 137 civil war history, 136 Commonwealth of Nations (CW) observation, 137 democracy levels, 136 economic environment, 135, 142 election loser challenges, 138 election observation, 54, 136 – 38, 141 election violence, 3, 54, 136 – 41, 147 Electoral Assistance Bureau (EAB) observation, 137, 140 – 41 European Union (EU) election observation, 54 Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM), 135 – 41 Herdmanston Accord, 138 independence, 135 – 36 International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) support, 137 – 38, 140, 142 media monitoring unit (MMU), 139 – 40 Organization of American States (OAS) observation, 137 People’s National Congress (PNC), 136 – 38, 141 – 42 People’s Progressive Party (PPP), 136 – 38, 142 population, 135 – 36 technical election assistance, 3, 21, 79, 136 – 41, 147, 154 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21, 137 – 41 voter education, 139 – 40 voter registration, 139 Haiti civil unrest, 79 election loser challenges, 116 – 17 election observation, 116 – 17, 159 election violence, 45, 116 – 17 international election support, 44 post-conflict environment, 44 technical election assistance, 21, 79 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21, 79 Hasina, Sheikh, 143 Herdmanston Accord, 138 Höglund, Kristine, 49, 62 Honduras Carter Center (CC) observation, 106 election fraud claims, 106 election observation, 106, 159 European Union (EU) observation, 106 national election commission (NEC), 106 Organization of American States (OAS) observation, 106 technical election assistance, 21 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21

Hoyte, Desmond, 137 Huntington, Samuel, 23 Hyde, Susan, 9, 48, 50, 79 – 80 incumbents, 7, 25, 35, 39, 42 – 43, 46 – 47, 54, 65, 73 – 74, 86, 89 – 91, 95 – 96, 105, 109, 112 – 17, 130, 133, 143 – 46, 158 – 59 India, 21, 38 International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), 4, 7, 48 – 49, 53 – 54, 69, 91 – 93, 137 – 38, 140, 142, 162 International IDEA, 7, 161 International Republican Institute (IRI), 4, 48, 110 Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), 114 Jamaat-e-Islami, 146 – 47 Jarstad, Anna, 49 Johnson-Sirleaf, Ellen, 94 Jordan, 121 Kabila, Joseph, 116 Kazakhstan, 122 Keesing’s Record of World Events, 12 – 13, 65 – 66 Kelley, Judith, 11, 52, 108, 160 Kenya democracy levels, 112 election loser challenges, 118, 120 – 21, 154 election observation, 2, 11, 48, 97, 111 – 14, 120 – 21, 161 election violence, 2, 11, 27 – 28, 33, 38, 97, 101, 111 – 14, 118, 121, 134 – 35, 154 European Union (EU) observation, 112 – 14 national election commission (NEC), 63, 112, 133 – 35, 154 post-conflict environment, 114 Supreme Court, 48 technical election assistance, 63, 112, 154 voter education, 112 voter registration, 112 Kibaki, Mwai, 113 – 14 Koroma, Ernest Bai, 112 – 13 Kovacs, Mimmi Söderberg, 49 Kumar, Krishna, 44 Kyrgyzstan, 25, 119, 121 Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), 133 – 34 legislative elections, 42, 46 – 47 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), 27 Liberia African Union (AU) support, 96 Center for Democratic Governance (CDG), 97 civil war history, 94 – 95

226       INDEX

Liberia (continued) Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC), 95 Ebola pandemic, 51, 95 economic environment, 94 election observation, 94, 97, 99 election violence, 3, 44, 93 – 99, 134 – 35 international election support, 44 Liberty Party, 95 – 96 national election commission (NEC), 50 – 51, 94 – 97, 133 – 35, 154 post-conflict environment, 93, 96 technical election assistance, 2 – 3, 21, 94 – 99, 154 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 3, 21, 52, 94 – 97 United Nations (UN) peacekeeping efforts, 95, 97 Unity Party, 95 voter education, 96 voter registration, 96 Liberty Party, 95 – 96 Libya democracy levels, 23 election violence, 36 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 11 Ludwig, Robin, 69 Lührmann, Anna, 11, 69, 129 Madagascar, 118 Malawi election observation, 88 – 89, 98 election violence, 73, 88 – 89 technical election assistance, 88 – 89 Mali election observation, 110 Tuareg violence, 66 Mauritania election loser challenges, 118 election observation, 2 election violence, 2, 118 Mauritius civil war history, 67 democracy levels, 23 election violence, 67 media bias, 13 – 15, 36, 53, 136, 139 – 40 media monitoring unit (MMU), 139 – 40 Mexico drug cartels, 162 election loser challenges, 120 election observation, 120 technical election assistance, 21 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21 Molla, Abdul Quader, 146 – 47

Morocco civil war history, 67 election violence, 67 technical election assistance, 79 Movement for Democracy and Justice, 116 Mozambique democracy levels, 22 election observation, 110 election violence, 33, 44 international election support, 44 technical election assistance, 21, 79 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21, 79 Muchlinski, David, 11 – 12 Mugabe, Robert, 27, 119, 159 Namibia civil war history, 67 election violence, 33, 67 technical election assistance, 21, 79 National Democratic Institute (NDI), 4, 48, 91, 96, 110, 117, 159 national election commission (NEC). See election commissions Nelda data, 20, 49, 69, 102, 106. See also election observation Nicaragua, 44 Niger, 9, 117 – 18 Nigeria All Nigeria People’s Party, 116 All Progressive Grand Alliance, 116 Boko Haram presence, 36, 38 Carter Center (CC) observation, 117 election loser challenges, 116 – 18 election observation, 11, 116 – 17, 160 election violence, 11, 27 – 28, 33, 38, 117 – 18 gross domestic product (GDP), 9 Movement for Democracy and Justice, 116 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 11 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), 7, 12, 66, 140 Noriega, Manuel, 120 Norris, Pippa, 12, 15, 62 – 63 North Korea, 22 Odinga, Raila, 113 – 14, 154 Ojukwu, Odumegwu, 116 Oman, 22 Opitz, Christian, 62 Orange Revolution, 119 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 69, 156 – 57 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), 25, 121

INDEX      227

Organization of American States (OAS), 23, 48, 106, 137, 159 Ouattara, Alassane, 114 – 16 Ouedraogo, Clement, 41 Pakistan, 143 Panama civil war history, 67 election loser challenges, 118, 120 election observation, 2, 120 election violence, 2, 67, 118, 120 Paraguay, 21 Pastor, Robert, 163 People’s National Congress (PNC), 136 – 38, 141 – 42 People’s Progressive Party (PPP), 136 – 38, 141 Peru, 21, 159 polling stations, 2, 14, 27, 35, 38, 51, 56 – 58, 62, 66, 89, 112 – 13, 120, 138 – 40 Portugal, 23 Preparation of Electoral Rolls with Photographs (PERP) project, 145 Rally of the Republicans (RDR), 114 rioting, 25, 38 – 39, 41, 117, 133, 138, 143 Rwanda election loser challenges, 118 election observation, 114 election violence, 118 post-conflict environment, 114 technical election assistance, 79 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 79 Saakashvili, Mikheil, 119 Sall, Macky, 118 Saudi Arabia, 22 Senegal civil war history, 67 election loser challenges, 118 – 19 election observation, 119 election violence, 67 Serbia, 119 Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 49 Shevardnadze, Eduard, 119 Sierra Leone candidate registration procedures, 92, 153 civil unrest, 90 democracy levels, 112 disarmament programs, 90 District Code of Conduct Monitoring Committees (DMC), 92 economic environment, 91, 112 election loser challenges, 119, 154

election observation, 91, 94, 111 – 14, 120 election violence, 36, 44, 91 – 93, 99, 111 – 14, 154 European Union (EU) support, 91 – 92, 112 executive restraints, 91 Independent Youth Forum, 93 International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) support, 91 – 93 national election commission (NEC), 90 – 92, 112 post-conflict environment, 91, 94, 112 Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), 90, 113 technical election assistance, 90 – 93, 98, 112, 153 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 90 – 93 United Nations (UN) withdrawal, 90 voter education, 92, 112 voter registration, 112 Somalia civil unrest, 79 civil war history, 67 election violence, 36, 67 technical election assistance, 21, 79 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21, 79 South Africa election violence, 8, 36, 73 gross domestic product (GDP), 8 technical election assistance, 21 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 21 Southern African Development Community (SADC), 119 Soviet Union, 25, 121, 137, 159 Sri Lanka, 27 Sudan African Union (AU) support, 159 civil unrest, 159 election observation, 159 election violence, 33, 95 post-conflict environment, 95, 159 United Nations (UN) election assistance, 11 Support to the Electoral Process in Bangladesh (SEPB), 146 Suriname civil war history, 67 election violence, 67 technical election assistance, 21 Swaziland, 122, 159 Tajikistan, 159 Taliban, 33, 35, 36, 162 Tall, Moctar, 41 Tanzania, 36, 80

228       INDEX

Taylor, Charles, 95 technical election assistance Africa, prevalence in, 20 – 22, 79, 98, 126 – 27, 154 assignment procedures, 52 credibility benefits, 2, 5, 17 – 18, 31, 53, 56, 58 – 59, 61, 65, 71, 124, 133 – 35, 147, 151, 154 – 55, 158 election commissions, impact on, 2, 16, 49 – 50, 52, 55 – 57, 60 – 64, 90, 98, 124 – 25, 128 – 35, 151, 154 – 55, 158, 162 election violence, role in, 5, 11 – 12, 50, 52, 55, 57 – 58, 60 – 64, 71, 76 – 77, 81 – 99, 124 – 28, 132 – 35, 147 – 48, 150 – 55, 158 – 59, 162 host country political costs, 51 institutional capacity building, 17 – 18, 50 – 53, 55 – 59, 61 – 63, 90, 92, 98 – 99, 126, 135, 147, 151, 154 – 55 Latin America, prevalence in, 20 – 22, 79, 98, 126 – 28, 154 regional variation, 20 – 21 security reforms, 56 – 57, 63, 151, 158, 162 selection, 52, 69 – 70, 78 – 87, 98 – 99, 129, 132 – 34, 147, 153 – 54 socialization aspects, 16 – 17, 64, 92, 140 – 41, 151, 153 timeframe, 5, 56 – 57 voter education support, 2, 55 – 58, 63, 93, 96, 112, 124, 139 – 40, 158 voter registration improvements, 2, 55 – 58, 63, 70, 92, 96, 112, 124, 145 – 46 See also individual countries Togo Carter Center (CC) observation, 110 election loser challenges, 118 election observation, 2, 110, 159 election violence, 2, 118 European Union (EU) aid suspension, 55 National Democratic Institute (NDI) observation, 110 Trinidad and Tobago civil war history, 67 election violence, 67 technical election assistance, 79 Tshisekedi, Etienne, 116 Tsvangirai, Morgan, 119 Tulip Revolution, 25, 119 Tunisia, 23, 36 Turkmenistan, 159 Uganda civil war history, 67 democracy levels, 22, 149

election loser challenges, 116, 118, 120 election observation, 114 election violence, 67, 118 Forum of Democratic Change, 116 Ukraine, 119 United Nations (UN) Angola election assistance, 21, 79 Bangladesh election assistance, 143 – 47 Benin election assistance, 21 Cote d’Ivoire election assistance, 115 Declaration of Human Rights, 4 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) election assistance, 21, 79 Development Programme (UNDP), 4, 6 – 7, 11 – 12, 51, 69, 93, 95 – 96, 137 – 41, 147, 161 – 62 election assistance objectives, 5 – 7, 128, 148, 153, 158 – 59, 161 – 62 General Assembly Resolution 43/157, 4 Guyana election assistance, 21, 137 – 41 Haiti election assistance, 21, 79 High Commissioner for Human Rights, 7 Honduras election assistance, 21 human development index, 91 Liberia election assistance, 3, 21, 52, 94 – 97 Libya election assistance, 11 Mexico election assistance, 21 Mozambique election assistance, 21, 79 Nigeria election assistance, 11 Paraguay election assistance, 21 peacekeeping troops, 90, 94, 98 Peru election assistance, 21 Rwanda election assistance, 79 Sierra Leone election assistance, 90 – 93 Somalia election assistance, 21, 79 South Africa election assistance, 21 Sudan election assistance, 11 United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 4, 7, 69 – 70, 145, 156, 158, 162 United States Institute of Peace (USIP), 7, 97 – 98, 162 Unity Party, 95 Uruguay civil war history, 67 democracy levels, 23 election violence, 67 technical election assistance, 79 Ushahidi, 163 Uzbekistan, 122, 159 Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project, 129 – 30

INDEX      229

Venezuela democracy levels, 22 – 23 election violence, 8 gross domestic product (GDP), 8 technical election assistance, 79 Vietnam, 22 vote buying, 14 – 15, 25, 36, 46, 91, 130, 161 voter education, 2, 44, 49, 56 – 59, 63 – 64, 92, 96, 98, 112, 122 – 23, 139 – 40, 143, 157 – 58, 161 – 62 voter registration, 2, 13 – 14, 16, 25, 27, 32, 38, 44 – 45, 55 – 56, 63, 70, 91, 96, 112, 124, 137 – 39, 145 – 47, 151, 161 – 62 voter turnout, 1, 3, 15, 26 – 27, 36, 38 – 41, 53, 57, 71, 98, 112, 114, 142, 144, 147, 151

Wade, Abdoulaye, 118 Weah, George, 95 Wilkinson, Steven, 38 Zambia, 9, 33 Zia, Khaleda, 143 Zimbabwe African Union (AU) observation, 119 democracy levels, 22 election loser challenges, 118 – 19 election observation, 11, 119 – 20, 159 – 161 election violence, 11, 27, 33, 118, 120 Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA) support, 119 Southern African Development Community (SADC) observation, 119