The Challenges of Disaster Planning, Management, and Resilience 9798886972290, 9798886975338

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本书版权归Nova Science所有

Natural Disaster Research, Prediction and Mitigation

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Natural Disaster Research, Prediction and Mitigation Tsunamis: Detection Technologies, Response Efforts and Harmful Effects Wei Chek Moon, PhD and Tze Liang Lau, PhD (Editors) 2022. ISBN: 979-8-88697-483-6 (Softcover) 2022. ISBN: 979-8-88697-514-7 (eBook) Wildfire Crisis: Management, Strategies, and Impacts William W. Reed (Editor) 2022. ISBN: 979-8-88697-444-7 (Hardcover) 2022. ISBN: 979-8-88697-496-6 (eBook) Wildfires: Assistance Programs and Management Joel M. Nelson (Editor) 2022. ISBN: 979-8-88697-445-4 (Hardcover) 2022. ISBN: 979-8-88697-495-9 (eBook) Wildfires: Response, Recovery and Mitigation Edward R. Robbins (Editor) 2022. ISBN: 979-8-88697-446-1 (Hardcover) 2022. ISBN: 979-8-88697-494-2 (eBook) Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems: Environment Risk Prediction and Safety Rustam B. Rustamov, PhD 2021. ISBN: 978-1-53619-726-6 (Hardcover) 2021. ISBN: 978-1-53619-857-7 (eBook)

More information about this series can be found at https://novapublishers.com/productcategory/series/natural-disaster-research-prediction-and-mitigation/

本书版权归Nova Science所有

Michail Chalaris Editor

The Challenges of Disaster Planning, Management, and Resilience

本书版权归Nova Science所有

Copyright © 2023 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52305/QURT7964 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic, tape, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise without the written permission of the Publisher. We have partnered with Copyright Clearance Center to make it easy for you to obtain permissions to reuse content from this publication. Simply navigate to this publication’s page on Nova’s website and locate the “Get Permission” button below the title description. This button is linked directly to the title’s permission page on copyright.com. Alternatively, you can visit copyright.com and search by title, ISBN, or ISSN. For further questions about using the service on copyright.com, please contact: Copyright Clearance Center Phone: +1-(978) 750-8400 Fax: +1-(978) 750-4470

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NOTICE TO THE READER The Publisher has taken reasonable care in the preparation of this book, but makes no expressed or implied warranty of any kind and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. No liability is assumed for incidental or consequential damages in connection with or arising out of information contained in this book. The Publisher shall not be liable for any special, consequential, or exemplary damages resulting, in whole or in part, from the readers’ use of, or reliance upon, this material. Any parts of this book based on government reports are so indicated and copyright is claimed for those parts to the extent applicable to compilations of such works. Independent verification should be sought for any data, advice or recommendations contained in this book. In addition, no responsibility is assumed by the Publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property arising from any methods, products, instructions, ideas or otherwise contained in this publication. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information with regard to the subject matter covered herein. It is sold with the clear understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in rendering legal or any other professional services. If legal or any other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent person should be sought. FROM A DECLARATION OF PARTICIPANTS JOINTLY ADOPTED BY A COMMITTEE OF THE AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION AND A COMMITTEE OF PUBLISHERS. Additional color graphics may be available in the e-book version of this book.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Chalaris, Michail, editor. Title: The challenges of disaster planning, management, and resilience / Michail Chalaris (editor). Description: New York : Nova Science Publishers, [2023] | Series: Natural disaster research, prediction and mitigation | Includes bibliographical references and index. | Identifiers: LCCN 2022059650 (print) | LCCN 2022059651 (ebook) | ISBN 9798886972290 (hardcover) | ISBN 9798886975338 (adobe pdf) Subjects: LCSH: Emergency management. | Disasters. | Decision making. | Preparedness. Classification: LCC HV551.2 .C435 2023 (print) | LCC HV551.2 (ebook) | DDC 353.9/5--dc23/eng/20230119 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022059650 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022059651

Published by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. † New York

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Contents

Preface

...................................................................................................................... ix

Chapter 1

A Sustainable Development Concept: Fiasco or the Only Hope to Survive ............................................................ 1 Orce Popovski and Ljupcho Shosholovski

Chapter 2

Interactions between Energy Security and Climate Crisis: A Focus on East Mediterranean ................................................................. 9 Chrysanthos K. Vrochidis and Michail Chalaris

Chapter 3

Climate Change and Challenges That Are Being Created ..................... 35 Nenad Taneski, Sasha Smileski and Andrej Iliev

Chapter 4

University Actions for Disaster Risk Reduction and Developing Urban Resilience ............................................................. 41 Gislaine dos Santos, Jordan Henrique de Souza, Marcela Martins Carrara and Rafaela de Mauro Tortorelli

Chapter 5

Earthquake Early Warning Systems: A Review with Applications in Greece ..................................................... 61 Charilaos A. Maniatakis, Athanasia E. Zacharenaki, Christos Moraitis and Georgios E. Stavroulakis

Chapter 6

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Urban Road Networks in Mountainous Areas................................................................................ 75 D. Sotiriadis, N. Klimis, B. Margaris, E.-I. Koutsoupaki, E. Petala and I. Dokas

Chapter 7

Damage Detection in Fiber Reinforced Concrete Specimens through the Application of a Novel Structural Health Monitoring System ...................................................................... 101 Maria Naoum, George Sapidis, Nikolaos Papadopoulos and Constantin Chalioris

Chapter 8

Philosophy of the Romanian Emergency Situations Management System ................................................................................ 123 Ionel-Alin Mocioi

Chapter 9

Ethics in Catastrophes and Extraordinary Decisions ........................... 133 Ana María Aldea Reyes, Marta Burgos González and Susana Izquierdo Funcia

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Contents

Chapter 10

The Emerging Role of Translation and Interpreting in Crisis Management .............................................................................. 141 Chrysoula Vafeiadaki

Chapter 11

The Necessity of Debriefing after Disaster Incidents ............................ 153 Chrysa Papapanou and Michail Chalaris

Chapter 12

The Need for Minimum Humanitarian Standards ............................... 175 Ricardo O. Treno, Ricardo R. Baumgartner and Michail Chalaris

Chapter 13

Mass Casualty Incidents in Greece Since 1996: Are We Ready to Face Them? ................................................................ 177 Michael Drosos

Chapter 14

Knowledge of Vulnerable Groups from North Macedonia, Bulgaria, and Spain Related to Protection and Rescue – Fundamental for Building Stronger Community Resilience................ 197 Biljana Karovska Andonovska, Nikola Kletnikovc and Metodija Dojchinovski

Chapter 15

Lack of Water as a Social Risk and Threat to Social Development and the Environment ........................................ 215 Metodija Dojchinovski, Biljana Karovska Andonovska and Nikola Kletnikov

Chapter 16

100 Years – 100 Cities: Evaluation of Urban Fire Risks ...................... 227 Peter Wagner and Sergei Sokolov

Chapter 17

Predicting the Occurrence of Combustion in the Production of Polyurethane Foam during the Storage Process for Tempering .......................................................................................... 261 Tsvetomila M. Damyanova, Yordan S. Dulev and Gabriela I. Ilieva

Chapter 18

The Effect of the Combustion Heat on the Forest Fire of Eastern Attica in Relation to the Meteorological Factors ................ 269 Nikolaos Iliopoulos and Michail Chalaris

Chapter 19

FASTER Project Technologies: A Reality of the Future...................... 291 Ana Díaz Herrero, Ana M. Cintora Sanz, Soledad Gómez De la Oliva, Oscar Carrillo Fernández, María R. Rodríguez Morenilla, Julio Ruíz Palomino and Francisco J. Carrillo Zamora

Chapter 20

Vulnerability Analysis Tool for First Responders: Results of a Case Study............................................................................ 305 Sabrina Scheuer, Constanze Geyer and Yvonne Prinzellner

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Chapter 21

Training and Knowledge Sharing Platform for First Responders and Educational Tools for Students’ and Citizens’ Awareness and Preparedness Against Natural and Manmade Disasters and Risks .......................................... 317 Kalliopi Kravari, Elena Samourkasidou, Athanasios Kravaris, Dimitrios Emmanoloudis, Nikolaos C. Kokkinos and Michail Chalaris

Chapter 22

The Impact of Technological Systems’ Implementation on Forest Fire Confrontation Operations .............................................. 343 A. Kanavos, M. Chalaris, D. Anastasiadou, E. Housos and E. Adamides

Chapter 23

Innovative Solutions for Disaster Management and Resilience ........................................................................................... 367 Vangelis Pipitsoulis, John Alexander, Conrad Bielski and Michail Chalaris

Chapter 24

Migration Crisis and National Security: Emergency Response in Eastern Mediterranean .................................. 385 Seretidis Christos and Michail Chalaris

Chapter 25

RESILOC: Resilient Europe and Societies by Innovating Local Communities – The Municipality of West Achaia ...................... 399 Marios Didachos, Nikolaos Stasinopoulos and Michail Chalaris

Chapter 26

Exclusion Processes Associated with COVID-19 Lockdowns .............. 405 Víctor Pérez-Segura, Raquel Caro-Carretero and Antonio Rua

Chapter 27

Applications of a Resilience Framework to COVID-19: Reframing Our Work .............................................................................. 415 Rustico “Rusty” Biñas

Chapter 28

Trapped on the Seashore, Seaborne Evacuation, and the Impact of Exposure to PM2.5: Demonstration of the UrbanEXODUS Evacuation Model ............................................. 439 L. Filippidis, P. J. Lawrence, D. Blackshields and J. Ewer

Chapter 29

Weather Types and Cardiovascular/Respiratory Mortality in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Greece: A Synoptic Climatology Approach to Protect Public Health................................... 459 Paraskevi Begou, Ilias Petrou, Kyriaki Psistaki, Ioannis M. Dokas and Anastasia K. Paschalidou

Chapter 30

Development of a Chemical Risk Map of Madrid Community Using the Descriptive Analysis of the Seveso Directive’s eMars Database ........................................................................................ 475 Cristina Horrillo, Ana M. Cintora, Eva Robledo, Cristina Gómez, Raquel Lafuente, Ricardo García, Christos Ntanos and Michail Chalaris

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Contents

Chapter 31

Emergency Response to a Kick ............................................................... 501 Fotios N. Zachopoulos and Nikolaos C. Kokkinos

Chapter 32

How Real Is the Threat of Terrorist Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction? .......................................................... 515 Michail Chalaris

Chapter 33

EU Preparedness and Research of Securıty for CBRNe Threats .................................................................................. 529 Aikaterini Poustourli, Michail Chalaris and Dimitrios Emmanoloudis

Chapter 34

Dangerous Goods Transportation: Study of the New Technologies and Accident Reduction..................................... 541 Nikolaos Papadelis, Nikolaos Stasinopoulos and Michail Chalaris

Index

................................................................................................................... 571

Editor’s Contact Information ............................................................................................ 589

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Preface

Major disasters (both natural and man-made) worldwide have led to an increased need to improve the effectiveness of existing prevention, mitigation, and response capabilities. The types of disasters that many countries face depend to some extent on their geography and climate and as a result, countries have built up different response expertise and experiences. There is evidence of a growing vulnerability to disasters as the worsening conditions of climate change may increase the destruction of human life, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Urban densities are also increasing with traditionally pastoral societies moving into cities under landuse change pressures, yet retaining behaviours related to animal husbandry (more than 80% of the European populations live in cities). These changes linked to increased mobility and societal cultural shifts and tensions create an environment that places substantial civil populations at risk from a range of threats that are not part of conventional risk reduction planning. The responsibility of meeting these challenges relies on every country, which must decide what resources to allocate to civil protection. The civil protection experts consider that a holistic approach should be followed, covering all aspects of civil disaster protection, such as preventive measures, rescue services, and follow-up measures. Moreover, developmental considerations contribute to all aspects of the disaster management cycle, with the ultimate goal of making people more capable of dealing with disasters and their recovery in a faster and long-lasting term. This book attempts to answer one of the major issues of our time which is related to the climate crisis, as well as to stress the multiple dangers, analyze today’s data and suggest solutions for disaster risk reduction, management, and resilience. At the same time, the book promotes communication among those who study, handle and deal with the problem of disaster risk reduction and management. It is a distinguished cross-century gathering of the world’s information circles, which favors collaboration, communication, coordination and capitalization on effective climate crisis adaptation and mitigation strategies, such as land-use planning and utilization of alternative and renewable energy – among others – in order to limit global warming to safer levels; however, it is also useful to launch studies to improve the resilience of all ecosystems to avert adverse effects on food production, health, and economic security. This work addresses chemists, engineers, and other experts and professionals from different countries who are occupied with the research and the development of activities, in a wide range, regarding issues of Climate Crisis, Disaster Management, and Resilience. It should also be of interest to the competent state, communal, social, and business carriers who are involved in these issues. The initial reflection refers to the “sustainable development concept” and whether this should be considered as a “Fiasco” or the only hope to survive. The report starts before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, when the climate changes were only being seen from the perspective of a natural phenomenon. From there on, anthropogenic activities influenced

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climate change greatly. Knowledge about the global impact of environmental changes, such as the reduction of the ozone layer, increased pollution of all environmental media, the disproportion in population growth and food production, demographic imbalance, and the increased influx of immigrants in developed countries, all show their implications on security. It is easy, then, to conclude that development is one of the most important environmental issues since it was launched during the 1992 Rio de Janeiro World Summit. The main analysis has as its first theme the “Interactions between energy security and climate crisis: Focus on east Mediterranean”, as a general review of the literature on the interactions between energy security and climate change in that area. As a whole, this work could guide academic research and policymakers to approach and solve issues involving the interactions between energy security and climate change. Continuing on the issue of the “Climate change and challenges that are being created”, the benefit from reading this study is basically for non-technical personnel interested in acquiring a better understanding of disaster preparedness and the strategies and measures that may be implemented as well. In its essence, the text is about the management of disaster and the difficult part of identifying the risk and vulnerabilities in local communities, while encouraging young people to get involved with disaster preparedness and recovery efforts. The next section of the book deals with “University actions to disaster risk reduction and develop urban resilience” and specifically with the Campaign “Making Cities Resilient: My city is getting ready!”, which was developed between 2010 and 2020 by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). To continue the Campaign, UNDRR launched the Initiative “Making Cities Resilient 2020-2030” to mobilize local managers in compliance with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Initiative has an information panel that brings together the global register of cities and partner institutions that develops actions on this theme. However, implementation is not a reality due to the lack of training for public servants on the subject. Thus, the corresponding chapter presents the pedagogical methodologies of the two editions of the course “Making Cities Resilient - MCR2030” and analyzes the results achieved. In addition, it presents other opportunities found for the development of training focused on global agendas at local and regional levels. Regarding “Earthquake early warning systems,” a review with applications in Greece is presented to give an insight into state-of-the-art methodology. Design concepts, cost of operation, and reliability limitations are examined, while a possible improvement of their efficiency with the use of artificial intelligence and neural networks is briefly discussed. In relation to the object, a “Probabilistic seismic risk analysis” is introduced to assess the seismic risk of road networks in mountainous areas in Northern Greece. Combining the probabilistic seismic hazard, fragility and exposure input, probabilistic seismic damage distributions for 10, 50 and 100 years are derived. Results reveal possible minor to moderate disruption of traffic due to earthquake occurrence, even for limited investigation times. A particular study is related to “Damage detection in fiber reinforced concrete specimens through the application of a novel structural health monitoring system” and is about Synthetic Fiber Reinforced Concrete (SFRC) prismatic specimens subjected to four-point bending with dimensions 150×150×450 mm. The real-time evaluation of the structural integrity of the examined structural member was carried out via the Electro-Mechanical Impedance (EMI) method on an array of Piezoelectric lead Zirconate Titanate (PZT) transducers that have been epoxy bonded to the surface of the SFRC specimens.

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Reference to the “Philosophy of the Romanian emergency situations management system” is also included that points out the country’s integrated Emergency Management System, able to ensure a prompt response and avoid as much as possible the loss of human lives, namely the National Emergency Situations Management System (SNMSU / NESMS-eng.). Aligned to this spirit we have developed an extended abstract about the methodology of the Search and Rescue (S&R) project and research made of the Spanish School of Rescue and Detection with Dogs (ESDP) in relation to the ethical aspects of animal welfare (“Ethics in catastrophes, extraordinary decisions”). A very special note has to do with the communicational dimension of crises and disaster management that contains two often underestimated components: translation and interpreting. Peace communication during crisis management requires precision in the transmission of messages; this alone has led to an urgent international need for a legal framework to define who acts as translator and interpreter during crises and disaster management. This book extends the significance of “Debriefing in Greece after the management of critical disaster incidents”, especially during the recovery phase. This paper could be characterized as a hybrid product of methodology consisting of two main parts: the first part is based on the literature review to examine the process of the debriefing technique, citing historical data of the evolution of the technique over the years. The second part is based on statistics for the debriefing process that emerged after a survey through a structured questionnaire processed through the SPSS program, to a targeted sample of people involved in the management of critical incidents. It actually gives a glimpse of the Greek approach to the method of debriefing. Remaining in Greece and having already raised the issue for “Minimum humanitarian standards” – and therefore the need for creating conditions of minimum stability and protection that allows a reorganization of the infrastructure of the affected locations – the reader has the opportunity to go through a report for “Mass casualty incidents in Greece since 1996”. The purpose is to understand the local level of preparedness through the relative carriers and hopefully to increase the national obligation to cooperate, confront and succeed beyond those challenges. Vulnerability related to protection and rescue is another topic examined through the aspect of children, youth, as well as persons with disabilities. Certain examples are given about “Vulnerable Groups from North Macedonia, Bulgaria and Spain” and their level of knowledge in relation to the protection and rescue system; their needs for training improvement using open educational platform, Mobile APP, and gamification are also seen. The topics that follow are related specifically to issues such as “Water lack as a social risk and threat to social development and environmental disorder” and the importance of creating opportunities for social risk and threat to social development because of water scarcity and asymmetrical development and management of water capacity. At the same time, this research identifies social problems, from which water can lead to disruption of national security, taking into consideration the case of how water as a social risk and threat affects the situation of the Republic of North Macedonia. Then one of the most critical issues is being analyzed within the increasingly complex infrastructure of large cities: the safety and security factors. In fact, the study is a closer look at the subject of fire safety. During the last century, cities have experienced a variety of revelations with the introduction of new building materials, new types of buildings, and new ways of using the facilities. As a result, many advances in fire prevention have been made. Nevertheless, the

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fire danger in the cities is not banished. The chapter uses striking examples to illustrate how urban fire risks have changed in the past, aiming to show what urbanization and industrialization mean for fire safety and what possible solution scenarios could there be for the future. The report “Predicting the occurrence of combustion in the production of polyurethane foam during the storage process for tempering” refers to the thermodynamic relationships of "freshly produced" polyurethane foam and its secondary ingredients. The reason for this was a fire in a warehouse for subsequent tempering of a finished commercial product. Combustion and/ or thermal decomposition products of polyurethanes are among the most toxic substances directly threatening the life of the population. This study brings us to the conclusion of incomplete technological inhibition of the catalyst as the leading cause of self-ignition of polyurethane foam during the storage process for tempering. A chapter on the forest fire of Eastern Attica is oriented to study how meteorological factors (wind and relative humidity) as well as the type and moisture content of the fuel affect the combustion heat of a fire in the area and consequently the fire hazard and the difficulty of extinguishing. Also, whether and how the description of the spread of a forest fire at an operational level can be achieved, along with the effect of forest firefighting forces, where the weather, topography and vegetation factors are known. The theme is quite related to the subject of the impact of technological systems implementation on forest fire confrontation operations, with the main objective to inform the local authorities that the impact of technological systems introduction in disaster management is dependent on the adopted organizational context and the implemented strategy. The research explores the role of 17 technological systems that were established in specific areas around Greece, after the mega-fires of 2007 and how they reacted to the effectiveness of local communities against forest fires. In terms of technology, the book covers the “FASTER project technologies”, an H2020 research project, as a reality of the future, in which Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) teams, in addition to other first responders, carry out an on-the-ground assessment of new support technologies. These technologies are to be used in victim rescue response situations and in coordination and safety procedures between disaster responders in different types of catastrophe scenarios. For this purpose, simulation exercises were conducted in real locations involving collapsed buildings using, among others, drones, unmanned vehicles, canine wearables and a mobile command centre. Especially for the First Responders, a vulnerability analysis tool was developed, which makes it possible for the potential number of affected people and buildings to be estimated; this in turn serves as relevant information for first responders to assess the required resources from a technical and medical perspective. The tool offers the functionality to estimate the number of vulnerable people that may need special care (e.g., people with mobility problems). In relation to the above, an article is presented about the RESISTANT’s educational and training infrastructure which can be used to train first responders through threefold comprehensive training: educational training, operational training, and virtual reality training. It reproduces the entire accident scenarios, intervention strategies, and tactics, including the whole chain of command and communications between all members of the first responders’ team, facility managers, and the public. In general, this work has been conducted with the challenges that societies have to overcome in terms of natural and man-made disasters. It includes “Innovative solutions for

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Disaster Management and Resilience” that allow early warning, smart and fast response, as well as better planning, synchronization, flexibility, interoperability, and more efficient response. Ways are also indicated for intelligent command & control for the authorities and interaction with citizens, and field tools for the first responders. Back to Greece’s example, the field of “Migration Crisis and National Security” is being investigated from the perspective of emergency response in the Eastern Mediterranean. The nature of the long Greek borders that characterizes them from one end to the other of Greek territory makes them "special" borders due to the increasing cases of irregular migration (Καρύδης 1996, 17; Seretidis 2021) and with increased risks of organized cross-border crime due to neighboring countries, with their increased economic, political and social problems. The European Union, seeing the dangers mentioned above, has proceeded to develop its technology and expertise using new innovative practices in land and sea border surveillance. This aims to improve the management of critical information in “real-time” on the field, as required by the evolution of crimes and their practices. The adoption of new technologies in security and border surveillance was a move that significantly helped the security sector and the reduction of people drowning in the waters of the Aegean. The unit “RESILOC: Resilient Europe and Societies by Innovating Local Communities” moves in the same spectrum with the objective to identify new strategies to better prepare communities against disasters and support European and international policies on resilience in societies. The theme goes through a general cultural shift in perception of resilience, away from emphasizing vulnerability; it shows a more positive concept of resilience as a strategic approach to be integrated with development goals representing a proactive and essentially positive societal response to adversity. Material is based on the municipality of West Achaia. Changing the background, we come to chapters on the “Exclusion processes associated with COVID-19 Lockdown”. Lockdown has been the quintessential non-pharmacological measure to combat the spread of COVID-19. To some extent, all countries have resorted to home confinement during the pandemic. Although it has not been sufficient to stop the spread of the disease, its implementation has prevented numerous losses. This part of the book studies both the strengths and weaknesses of the measure, exploring possible adverse effects that it has caused, to achieve a better implementation of the measure in the face of future pandemic catastrophes. Another analysis follows on the “Application of resilience framework to COVID-19” that contributes to the community’s awareness of potential COVID-19 risks and enables the community to reduce disaster risk. The “Resilience Framework” helps in understanding the interrelatedness of the capacities and guides the risk assessment. It is an essential precursor to decision-making in COVID-19 risk reduction, in parallel with the formulation of development policies, strategies, plans (development and contingency), programs, and projects. Proceeding to the last topics, we examine cases such as being “Trapped on the seashore, seaborne evacuation, and the impact of exposure to pm2.5”. Evacuation models offer a better understanding of the processes involved, including the interactions between those processes. Such a model is urban EXODUS, utilised during the final exercise (FSX3) for the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 project IN-PREP. The tool was used as part of a training platform for incident managers in a collaborative response to large-scale disasters. The scenario deployed during the FSX3, and presented in this work, involved a traffic accident and cascading effects that start a wildfire in a forested area, initiating a multi-modal evacuation of the local community.

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At this point, “a synoptic climatology approach to protect public health” is included to identify weather types over the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace associated with cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, to predict and prevent harmful weather-related impacts on human health. The results of this study could be used by the local authorities and stakeholders when applying weather health – watch – warning systems, to respond accurately and timely and to protect public health, by means of issuing warnings for potentially harmful weather, allocating resources and developing readiness. Then the article about the “Development of a chemical risk map of Madrid community” is a descriptive analysis of the eMars database, which collects mandatory information on serious chemical incidents according to the SEVESO directive. This analysis evaluated the chemical incidents with the highest number of fatalities and direct injuries. A risk map of the Madrid Region was drawn up based on the industries and toxic substances that caused the most serious incidents from the eMARS database and the list of industries obtained from the Civil Protection Regulations of the Community of Madrid. Those interested will also have the opportunity to read the chapter on “Emergency Response on A Kick”. This chapter aims to provide information about a common phenomenon that takes place during the drilling operations for oil or gas, known as the “kick”. An introduction to the basic principles and “behaviour” of a kick was presented along with the well control techniques and the kick identification methods since a kick could result in disastrous consequences. Conclusions were drawn about the current technological status of the available emergency response methodologies as well as suggestions for further development and improvements. Closing chapters are connected to the “Threat of Terrorism and of Weapons of Mass Destruction”. The existing chemical, biological or radioactive weapons can cause widespread death and destruction which name WMDs and at exploring the possibility of the occurrence of incidents involving the use of weapons of mass destruction. In the first part of the paper, we refer to an overview of the use, during the history, of WMDs and to the definitions of all the types of WMD. In the second part, we analyze if WMDs are a real threat for the future. We examine real incidents and the relations between state and non-state Actors, Terrorism, and WMDs, and the development of the new technologies in that field with the scope of foreseeing the future of the use of WMDs. Technological developments will shape what WMD capabilities will be achievable in that timeframe while geopolitical developments will shape motivations to acquire and use WMDs. A relative perspective is “EU preparedness and research of security for CBRNe Threats” depending on the existing legislative framework, the main European Research & Innovation (R&i) findings and the current trends relating to the Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRNe) threats. Europe is called to adapt to changing security realities including a wide range of threats that challenge the resilience of societies and preparedness of systems. Predicting combinations of threats is new, complex, and difficult; it requires civilian actors, civil protection authorities to be alert and the resilience and flexibility of the systems to be currently in place. In consequence, the EU is aware of the importance of financing, investing, cooperating, and protecting against CBRNE threats, and is funding relevant R&I projects, mainly under the Horizon 2020 and FP7 frameworks. In closing, there is a study on “the new technologies and accident reduction”. This Project scratches the surface of what the thematical framework of “Transport of Dangerous Goods” (TDG) is about. It begins with definitions/classifications, legal documents, and accident

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xv

background. It goes on to risk analysis, assessment and mitigation models, and finally focuses on the current and new enabling technologies. Emphasis is put on the importance of information and (tele)-communications technology (ICT), geographical information systems (GIS), networking and satellite tracking/tracing, combined with the necessity of synchronization, coordination, cooperation and interoperability among actors.

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Chapter 1

A Sustainable Development Concept: Fiasco or the Only Hope to Survive Orce Popovski1,2,*, PhD and Ljupcho Shosholovski1,2, MD 1

The General Mihailo Apostolski Military Academy, Skopje, North Macedonia 2 The Goce Delčev University of Štip, Štip, North Macedonia

Abstract Before the beginning of the industrial revolution, the climate changes were regarded solely as a natural phenomenon. From then onwards, anthropogenic activities present an enormous influence over the climate changes. Numerous studies which were conducted at the beginning of the ‘80s of the last century, indicate link between environment and security. Studies primarily are related to the research of the implications of environmental changes on security. Knowledge about the global impact of environmental changes, such as the reduction of the ozone layer, increased pollution of all environmental media, the disproportion in population growth and food production, demographic imbalance, the increased influx of immigrants in developed countries, all show their implications on security. As a result, the relevant authorities were motivated to make a re-evaluation of the security dimension, incorporating environmental concerns. Sustainable development is one of the most important environmental issues, since it was launched during the 1992nd Rio de Janeiro’s World Summit. Together with formulation of Agenda 21, Declaration on environment and development, concern on forests, climate changes, bio-diversity, and desertification, a Commission on Sustainable Development was established as well [1].

Keywords: climate change, environmental changes, security, sustainable development

Introduction Everything started when in 1987 the UN World Commission in its Report Our Common Future [2], faced the terrifying fact that global demand of natural resources doubled in 45 years! This *

Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected].

In: The Challenges of Disaster Planning, Management, and Resilience Editor: Michail Chalaris ISBN: 979-8-88697-229-0 © 2023 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

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was mainly due to population growth and increased individual consumption in the years after World War II. As a result, the Commission concluded where the development is favorable - but it must be also sustainable. Sustainable Development continued to be in the center of worldwide interest on summits that followed. So, at the Kyoto Summit a far-reaching Protocol was adopted aimed at controlling the global climate by strict intension that all countries would converge toward equal per capita emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion [3]. Starting with the situation in 1990s when the most developed countries were emitting CO2 10 or more times than the rest of the world, the Kyoto Protocol was advocating the idea that by the year 2020 all countries should converge to CO2 emission equivalent to 1 ton carbon per year and capita. This noble idea was not accepted by the most relevant countries, the ones that were supposed to make extreme efforts in reducing the CO2 emissions. Countries as, e.g., USA, Canada, Australia, etc. opposed to sign the Protocol expressing fear that this will limit their economic growth. In the case of the USA the reduction of CO2 emissions was 7 times. This really represents a drastic measure and explains why the most developed countries kept such an attitude. Never the less, Kyoto Protocol is still an actual document and has achieved important goals. The need for global acceptance and action of all of Earth’s population, raised doubt in the feasibility of the Sustainable Development concept, due to beginning of searching for its successor [4, 5]. Finally, all eyes were pointed on the United Nations Summit held in Copenhagen in 2009. From the Summit was expected, governments of 192 countries to reach a new agreement on climate change. Mankind hoped that political leaders will be visionaries for the future because of them depended on whether there will be “Copenhagen” after Copenhagen. Successful, even partially agreement in Copenhagen will be given the chance, for example, the islands of Maldives to survive [6]. Whatever mankind’s hope and expectations are, even before the start, analysts were not optimistic about the results of the Copenhagen summit, because reducing carbon dioxide emissions, in fact, means reducing industry, reallocation of market cake and of course – the power. Thus, it became clear that the rich countries are not willing to pay such a high price for the sustainable development. Although the 15th International Conference on Climate Change’s supposed to be the most important chapter in the story called “climate change”, 35 years old, it went as predicted, followed by protests, riots, comments and without a final agreement. Unfortunately, mostly all of the later conferences failed to adopt a Program for implementing harmonized conclusions. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, which was mandatory for industrialized countries, the “Copenhagen agreement” is legally optional, contains no specific figures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, either order, the emission of carbon dioxide by 50% by the year of 2050.Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, which was mandatory for industrialized countries, the “Copenhagen agreement” is legally optional, contains no specific figures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, either order, the emission of carbon dioxide by 50% by the year of 2050.

Sustainable Development Concept and Military Operations Unfortunately, this is also the case with the norms and principles of environmental protection when conducting military operations, although it is known that damage to the environment has

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always been present in military conflicts [7]. In fact, it is quite clear that the daily tasks and activities performed by military members are directly related to the environment, because they use a variety of means contributing to the pollution of air, water, soil, vegetation, animal life, etc. Of the past, certain means and methods of warfare leading to harmful effects on the environment, and sometimes amounted catastrophic proportions. While in the past environmental damage was compared to the result of the use of certain types of weapons and/or instruments of warfare, today such damage is often the result of conscious intent of the deliberate sides. Although environmental damages are an inevitable consequence of conducting military operations, the problem of environmental protection is actualized only in the last decades of the 20th century in the International Humanitarian Law. Until the Vietnam War, International Humanitarian Law contained no specific rules for the preservation of the environment, but the rules for the protection of property served as the sole legal basis for environmental protection. However, since the Vietnam War which destroyed large forest expanses and other flora, comes to a reversal of that plan, so several international agreements containing provisions on environmental protection in armed conflicts have been adopted. Provisions, in a more direct way related to the protection of the environment, are contained in several agreements of the International Humanitarian Law: Additional Protocol I on the protection of victims of international armed conflicts since 1977, the Convention on the prohibition of the use of military or any other hostile technique that causes changes in the environment since 1976 (ENMOD Convention) and the Convention on conventional weapons (Protocol III to prohibit and restrict the use of flammable weapons). However, it seems that the explicit norms that contained prohibitions and environmental restrictions are general and imprecise, and the conditions for their application set are at a very high level. The Protocol I contains only two provisions of a more direct way protect the environment. The first of them (Article 35, paragraph 3) is in the third part, devoted to the means and methods of warfare, while the second (art. 55), which is located in the fourth section, refers to the protection of the civilian population [8]. Paragraph 3 of Article 35 says that “…it is prohibited to employ methods or means of warfare which are intended, or may be expected, to cause widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment”. This provision prohibits not only the means but also any method used with intent to cause damage to nature on a grand scale, but those whose use feeds to predictable collateral damage of such magnitude. Accordingly, there is a violation of Protocol I when against legitimate military target acted and permitted means but is caused unintended (collateral) damage to the natural environment, which has a widespread, longlasting and serious character. Paragraph 1 of Article 55 reads as follows: …care shall be taken in warfare to protect the natural environment against widespread, longterm, and severe damage. This protection includes a prohibition of the use of methods or means of warfare which are intended or may be expected to cause such damage to the natural environment and thereby to prejudice the health or survival of the population.

The formulation used, implies that both Articles only apply to environmental damage that cumulatively qualifies widespread, duration and severity (the so-called triple cumulative standard). With this requirement, the threshold of their application is elevated to a very high

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level. For example, if there is serious damage to the environment, which is manifested by decades, decreases to a breach of these Articles, if the adverse effects are not manifested in the wide area. The second obvious example of this are the provisions of the ENMOD Convention, which under Article says: “States Parties undertake, in the military, and any other hostile use, not to engage in techniques that alter the environment and that have widespread, long-lasting and serious consequences when used as a means of destruction, damage or injury to the opposite side”. The Convention, therefore, prohibits the use of so-called “Environmental modification techniques” as a military tool. However, the Article 2 of this Convention defined “environmental modification techniques’ as referring to any technique for changing–through the deliberate manipulation of natural processes–the dynamics, composition or structure of the earth, including its biota, lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere or of outer space”. From this definition follows that the ENMOD Convention is limited to manipulation of nature with many advanced technologies that leave far-reaching consequences. As examples suggest techniques that cause earthquakes, tsunamis, rainfalls, droughts, disruptions in the ecological balance in a given region, climate change, changes in the ionosphere, etc. In addition, a particularly large problem in some norms in the International Humanitarian Law, represents the application of the principle of military necessity and limits collateral damage caused by attacks on military facilities. It is obvious that the International Humanitarian Law cannot fully prevent or exclude environmental damage during armed conflicts, but it can contribute them to be reduced to the lowest possible level. The best way to promote environmental protection in armed conflicts is certainly the adoption of a new international agreement that will unify, systematize and expand existing norms in the International Humanitarian Law, but will introduce new balanced primarily with the sustainable development concept.

Contemporary Challenges of the Sustainable Development Concept While the daily unfolding debates about saving the planet, the facts show that humanity increasingly enjoy material affluence and luxury. Report by the World Wildlife Fund from 2006 is clear: “We spend the resources faster than what nature creates.” If the relationship consumed: updated in 2003 was 1.25: 1, the predictions of this Fund that relationship in 2050 will be 2:1. Therefore, the Fund recommends: a) to change the way of life; b) to reduce energy consumption, food, wood, etc.; c) to reduce the speed of turning resources into waste; d) This new philosophy means life takes place exclusively in harmony with nature: Recycle – Reduce – Recover – Reuse [9]. Since time, immemorial various forecasts and dark scenarios about the survival of mankind existed. The most characteristic between them, it seems, is Malthus’ embarrassment. Namely, at the end of the 18th century, he predicted because of the disharmony in population growth (geometric progression) and the increasing in food production (arithmetic progression), humanity is doomed to suffering from massive disease, poverty, if no action is taken to limit the population growth. Instead, ever since the population is tripled, the life is extended, and people are healthier than ever before. So, what was wrong in Malthusian theory? Apparently, he belittled the possibilities of science and technology. Malthus could not foresee the ingenious technological solution proposed by Haber and Bosh for getting fertilizer from atmospheric

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nitrogen (inexhaustible resource), and thus food production skyrocket. Therefore, the eternal dilemma is: restriction or expansion in spending resources? The expansionists’ philosophy is unlimited spending on raw materials, as long as it requires economic growth and the fear of their exhaustion is unsuspected because technology creates new resources. Maybe this solution, which includes the development, promotion and improvement of existing and the discovery of new materials is the alternative concept of sustainable development. The basis for such optimistic forecasts lies in the possibilities of chemistry, which in this area has not yet given its final word. In fact, if you look through history, clearly notes that before the 20th century, mankind was limited on consumption of natural materials and metals, the 20th century marks the consumption of polymers, ceramics, composites (man-made materials), while the 21st is likely to be century of new composites (fullerenes, carbon nanotubes, graphenes, etc.) [10, 11]. The advantage of these materials is that the resources for obtaining them are inexhaustible, unlimited, renewable, and their features are superior to the previous materials. Let’s go back in the history to retrospect technological revolutions (Figure 1). Any technological revolution causes remarkable change of lifestyle followed by new materials, products and services, providing new life comfort quality [12, 13]. On the other side, every technological revolution is connected to certain source of energy, i.e., certain kind of fossil fuel. Beginning of the industrial revolution (steam machine appearance), on the other side, means beginning of mass consumption of coal as a convenient energy source. Further, electricity revolution is based on usage of coal which appears as the main energy source, too. Appearance of oil, causes automotive revolution, while this revolution causes oil to be the main energy source. Correlation between information revolution and natural gas is not cause-consequence based, but only temporal. And finally, we are coming at the point that was discussed in the introductory note, i.e., exhaustion of fossil fuels and harmful consequences of their long-term exploitation. Thus, the humanity is faced to energy crisis and all efforts are focused on invention of new sustainable energy sources. Intensive research and pilot projects few decades, foreshadow new energy revolution.

Industrial revolution

wood 1:0

Electricity revolution

coal 1:1

Automobile revolution

Informatic revolution

oil 1:2

Figure 1. History of technological revolutions and fossil fuels.

natural gas 1:4

Energetic revolution

hydrogen 0:1

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Therefore, hydrogen economy including economic electrochemical production of hydrogen using renewable sources of energy (solar, wind, hydro-potential, gravity etc.), transportation to hydrogen stations, to consumers or to fuel cell stations for further conversion of electricity, invention of new cheaper but efficient electrode material for hydrogen evolution/oxidation, new hydrogen electrolysers/fuel cells etc., is in the focus of the energy revolution [14, 15]. Hence, we can say that the future is in our hands or ingenuity of future generations, but not in repeating the mistakes of the past. No matter how it is obvious, it takes time to realise that the sustainability was not at all a new phenomenon in the mankind’s behavior. It was present ever since, starting with the earliest days of human civilization. Having in mind such a long sustainable development history, it is normal to ask ourselves: What was new in the sustainable development concepts accepted and continuously improved at Earth Summits in past 20 years? The answer is simple: new was the size of Society that was in crisis and that looked to resolve the crisis at a lower possible price. In fact, the whole planet was endangered with unreasonable behavior of humans in the past century. Non-renewable resources (fossil fuels, minerals/ores, etc.), including fresh water, are seriously depleted; the waste skyrocketed both in quantity and potential hazard; a special type of waste (waste heat no matter how naive it looks), contributes to the continuous rise of the global surface temperature and indirectly to sea-level rise, extreme climatic events etc. The solution was recognized in the concept of sustainable development but aimed at the highest global level: to keep the high standards of modern living, but to think to future generations, as well.

Conclusion While sustainable development concepts in the past were based on taking advance of empirical skill, the top-level concept is sophistically formulated (‘development that meets the needs of the present, without compromising ability of future generations to meet their own needs’) and indicate scientific approach. Despite of it, a dose of contradiction between goals is visible. It is not easy to make clear distinction and to establish the border line between the (greedy) present and imaginary and somehow emotive future, but it does not mean that we should give up of the Rio’s Sustainable Development idea. The authors of the concept were not naive; they were aware of how difficult it is achieving its goals, but never mind, they keep on that concept. Their philosophy was (probably) that it is better to start solving the Global environmental crisis; no matter how uncertain its finalization is, than to give up in advance. By the way, the very idea was accordingly formulated in presenting the measure of worldwide unique per capita emission of CO2, the authors skillfully employed the expression to converge to and not to achieve, meaning that sustainable development at global level is an idea to be followed, and not a commandment that must be obeyed. As time goes on, it could rise to a level of command, but probably then there will be no more places for hope.

References [1]

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Earth Summit ’92. Rio de Janeiro 1992.

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A Sustainable Development Concept [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

[7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]

[15]

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Drexhage, J. & Murphy, D. (2012). “Sustainable development: from Brundtland to Rio 2012.” International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) for UN, New York : UN. Klarin, T. (2018). “The Concept of Sustainable Development: From its Beginning to the Contemporary Issues.” International Review of Economics & Business, Zagreb Vol. 21, No. 1 :67-94. Hadzi Jordanov S. 2002. “Sustainability expires – a search for its successor begins.” Plenary Lecture given at the International Conference on Transboundery Pollutiont, Belgrade. Popovski O., Paunovic P., Hadzi Jordanov S. 2011. ”Sustainable Development – 20 years later.” 1st International Conference on Accomplishments in Sustainable Development, Banja Luka. Clarke W. C. 1977. The Structure of Permanence: The Relevance of Self-Subsistence Communities for World Ecosystem Management, in Subsistence and Survival: Rural Ecology in the Pacific. BaylissSmith T. and Feachem R. (eds), London : Academic Press :363-384. United Nations Environment Programme. Protecting the environment during armed conflict, an inventory and analysis of international law, 2009. Melzer N. 2016. “International humanitarian law a comprehensive introduction.” International Committee of the Red Cross. Janke D. and Savov L. 1997. “ Circulation of Materials, Erstes Freiberger Europa Seminar : Resources for Tomorow - Materials Recycling.” TU Bergakademie (December) :1-12. Cassedy E. S. and Grossman P. Z. 2008. Chapter 2: Energy Resources. In Introduction to Energy: Resources, Technology & Society. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge :30. Hadzi Jordanov S., Paunovic P., Dimitrov A. and Slavkov D. 2008. “Chemistry – a vital pillar to hold the building named: Supplies for tomorrow”. 9th ECRICE Conference, Istanbul: 160. Bockris J. O’M. 1972. “A Hydrogen economy.” Science, 176:1323. Gregory D. P. 1973. “The Hydrogen Economy.” Sci. Amer., 228:13-21. Neophytides S. G., Zaferiatos S. H. and Jakšić M. M. 2003. “Novel Trends in Electrocatalysis: Extended Hypo-Hyper-d-Interionic Bonding Theory and Selective Interactive Grafting of Composite Bifunctional Electrocatalysts for Simultaneous Anodic Hydrogen and CO Oxidation.” Chem. Ind., 57 (9) 368-392. Paunović P., Popovski O., Hadži Jordanov S., Dimitrov A. and Slavkov D. 2006. “Modification for improvement of catalysts materials for hydrogen evolution.” J. Serb. Chem. Soc., 71 (2) 149-165.

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Chapter 2

Interactions between Energy Security and Climate Crisis: A Focus on East Mediterranean Chrysanthos K. Vrochidis and Michail Chalaris*, MA, PhD Department of Chemistry, International Hellenic University, Kavala, Greece

Abstract The aim of this study was the review of the literature on the interactions between energy security and climate change. The energy policy and the general strategies in relation to the five dimensions of the Energy Union were described. The measurement of the impacts of energy security of resources concentration through the use of specific mathematical indexes and the case study focused on Mediterrenean region was also approached. Generally, this work can guide academic research and policymakers to approach and solve issues involved the interactions between energy security and climate change.

Keywords: energy security, climate change, Mediterranean region, crude oil, natural gas

Introduction Energy Policy The energy sector is affected by regulations, policies, and investment of critical drivers including energy security and climate change. Energy security and climate change contain synergies but also conflicting recommendations. According to Bazilian et al. (2010) [1], the climate change should be discussed as a part of energy policy and the ways of minimizing greenhouse gas emissions should be the main objectives of this policy. The aim of this study was to investigate the interactions between the energy security and the climate change affecting the investment decisions on a large-scale. The study was focused on the case of East Mediterranean illustrating the potential contracts between these two issues for energy policy.

*

Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected].

In: The Challenges of Disaster Planning, Management, and Resilience Editor: Michail Chalaris ISBN: 979-8-88697-229-0 © 2023 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

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Apart from energy policy, specific mechanisms influencing the energy planning including regulation, electricity markets’ architecture, and the specific analytical tools linked to the decision-making should be evaluated [2]. The benefits of energy security such as the improvement of energy access should be emphasized independently of the pricing losses from climate change and energy security. Blyth and Lefevre (2004) [3] confirmed that the requirement for more advanced tools for the evaluation of energy policy drivers and their interactions is mandatory considering national conditions and evolutions in energy markets and consumption trends. The principal motivator for decisions in order to support large-scale power generation, using local fuel sources includes the creation of wealth occurred by the access expansion of electricity to households and businesses in countries characterized as energy-constrained [4]. The Mediterranean Sea region has a significant geopolitical strategy due to three factors: • • •

The location at the Europe, Asia and Africa junction, The meaningful international sea routes and straits including Bosphorus, Gibraltar, Suez Canal, Dardanelles, The potential oil and natural gas sources.

The potential of East Mediterranean as a gas source has been recently confirmed by recent discoveries. As a result, a group of meaningful geoeconomical decisions including the gas flows and exchanges development is set [5]. The geopolitical view of energy relations should be analyzed as state relations forced by interests of national security and foreign policy. It should be noticed that the natural gas geopolitics is characterized by particular complexity because of its transportation expenses due to its physicochemical characteristics. The natural gas could be transported either through pipelines or in liquid form (LNG), affecting significantly the political economy, large investments and political stability are two main factors that should be taken place for the gas transportation. The National Energy and Climate Plan (NESC) is a mixture of ambitious and rational national energy policy aiming to the achievement of the goals which have been set by Energy Union of European Union (EU) by 2030. Such an energy transition requires a high level of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), increased penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) into gross final energy consumption and improved energy efficiency for greater energy savings [6]. According to the new Strategic Agenda 2019-2024 approved by the European Council on 20 June 2019, the success of this green transition will depend on the significant mobilization of private and public investments, the consolidation of an efficient cyclical economy and an integrated, interconnected and well-functioning EU energy market. In this way the EU will be able to reduce its dependence on external sources, diversify its supply and invest in future mobility solutions. Therefore, the systemic nature of climate and environmental challenges leads to the need to develop sustainable policies by integrating all three dimensions of sustainable development (social, environmental, economic), with common benefits and synergies in tackling climate change, nature conservation and biodiversity, quality of air, water resources and the environment.

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However, a continuous effort, horizontal cooperation, as well as close monitoring to support, update and integrate of new technological developments are very important in order for these policies and the goals to be achieved.

General Strategy in Relation to the Five Dimensions of the Energy Union The European Energy and Environment Strategy promotes European energy integration, ie the abolition of energy borders between national energy markets and the strengthening of EU energy security and independence. The main pillar of this Strategy is the completion of the internal energy market which will be liberated and competitive and will dictate the next steps without interference while integrating the five dimensions of the European Union. It will provide safe energy for all, facilitate the flow of energy across the EU's internal borders, promote and reward the low-carbon economy, and also support energy efficiency and new technologies.

Energy Security Greece's geopolitical position as Europe's Energy Portal for new power sources from the Eastern Mediterranean and Central Asia combined with the growth potential of intraCommunity power sources give an important role to the country in Europe's energy transition to a climate-neutral economy by 2050. Securing and managing energy resources through diversification of energy sources and flows, in order to enhance security of supply in the country and in the wider region of South-Eastern Europe, shielding the supply of the domestic market and protecting consumers in case of supply disruption and emergency. Thus, the main strategic goal is to ensure the uninterrupted and reliable coverage of domestic and regional energy needs, as well as the access of all consumers (citizens, businesses and public sector entities) to affordable and safe energy. In this way, the regional role of Greece in a region that lacks a mature energy market is strengthened [7]. Completing a Sustainable Energy Market With the restructuring of its energy sector, Greece looks forward to the development and operation of competitive and economically viable energy markets, which must operate by offering competitive and transparent prices of energy products and services to consumers. In addition, in a European and international climate-neutral environment, the transition to a lower carbon energy system will enable new energy technologies to penetrate the energy market, providing opportunities for innovative investments and activities enhancing the competitiveness of the Greek economy. Low Carbon Economy Over the next decade, changes are expected to be made in the country's electricity supply sector, as the share of RES in electricity generation is sought to increase significantly and gradually replace the use of fossil fuels. The policies to be adopted are aimed to achieve the integration of RES in the electricity market in a competitive way, while the planned reduction and cessation of the use of lignite for electricity generation highlights the issue of direct and indirect effects on development and employment at the level of local communities in the lignite areas, thus

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creating requirements for the formulation of specific transition policies and their financing strategy.

Spatial Design The continuous urbanization and enlargement of cities, which has been intensifying in recent years, is a common challenge for spatial design in Europe. The rate of land use for urban uses far exceeds the rate of population growth. The primary goal of sustainability policy is to radically review the structure and operation of modern cities. The main issue that arises is the promotion of urban models that correspond to urban areas and in particular in terms of the distribution of functions, density and hierarchy of their structure (center - local centers suburbs). The policies promoted relate to changes in the shape, size, density of housing, planning and location of activities in cities, which will result in differences in the pattern of energy demand and overall improvement of their energy and climate footprint [8]. Bioclimatic Urban Planning The geometry and location of buildings, urban streets, and public outdoor space, the use of unsuitable materials on surfaces, the lack of greenery, human activities and land uses, determine the energy behavior of an urban area and are responsible for the phenomenon of "Thermal island" and reduced wind flow - hence the rise in temperature within urban areas during the day and night and increasing energy consumption. A key policy goal is the implementation of bioclimatic planning (urban and architectural) in order to harmonize buildings, roads, public space and other areas of urban areas with the environment and the local climate with immediate results in energy savings and at the same time in improving the urban environment and quality of life. Energy Efficiency Improving energy efficiency, in all areas of consumption, is the biggest challenge for public policies to be implemented over the next decade and is therefore an absolute and horizontal priority across the range and mix of policies and measures to be adopted. By improving energy efficiency, the energy savings are achieved affecting the amount of consumed energy, the technologies used, the energy needs of consumers, while they have a key contribution to the improvement of the competitiveness of every sector of economic activity [9]. Research and Innovation The next decade is crucial for the development of innovative technologies and the emergence of start-ups that will help the EU meet its ambitious goals. A key parameter for securing the required funds is the further integration of the EU energy market and regulatory and political stability, while enriching and complementing the policy framework set without unpredictable and fragmented moves. In this way, ensuring regulatory predictability and the necessary competitiveness, the industry sector can be restructured and transformed. The market should be able to send the message to research centers that the maturation of technologies that could contribute to ambitious European goals will be supported either through targeted and timebound incentives or indirectly such as ensuring price stability and predictability of the Emissions Trading Scheme.

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In this light, research institutes are called upon to pursue a more extroverted policy that will invite and welcome international collaborations with institutions and other states, departing from the common practice of their participation exclusively in EU-funded programs. Also noteworthy is the fact that the new design supports and promotes the strengthening of the role of consumers and the involvement of final users in the energy market. This can create new jobs and accelerate the development of innovative technologies and applications. At the same time, a large role is expected to be played by some new institutions, such as that of energy communities, active consumers, decentralized energy management and the technological development of electricity distribution networks (smart networks) [10].

Climate Change and Energy Security Interactions Energy Policy Drivers OECD energy policy is driven by two factors, the pollution and the energy security. The pollution refers to the pollutants generated during the fossil fuels combustion. The emission of these air pollutants results in serious environmental and health issues. The energy security stems from the economic and social effects of the high or unstable energy prices and of the sudden interruptions of energy supply. The causes of energy insecurity are connected with the wrong use of a dominant position in international fossil fuel markets and the deficiency in the regulatory system to support the energy market. These two factors including pollution and energy security have been examined independently due to the different type of response measures that are followed. The policies of energy security are focused on the regulatory structures supporting the energy market, on the composition of fuel mix or on the routes of supply. Moreover, the response measures of the air pollution have generally attempted to fuel treatment techniques including fuels with low lead and sulphur concentration or coal washing, as well as to the technologies associated with the end-of-pipe including the scrubbers’ installation in energy plants etc. The limited attention to interactions between pollution and energy security could be attributed to an institutional justification. During the 19th century, the regulations associated with pollution were introduced while during the first years of the 20th century energy security regulations grew into political concerns. The changes in market, fuel usage, and technologies led to the evolution of both issues. Because of the different nature of air pollution and energy security, they have most often been under the responsibility of particular government branches.

Mitigation of Climate Change The emissions of greenhouse gases linked to energy production and the fossil fuels combustion should be reduced in order to mitigation the climate change. This reduction of air pollution could be performed by the application of economic instruments including trading schemes emissions, or carbon taxes, as well as hands-on policies such as end-of-pipe measures improving the efficiency and the collection of carbon dioxide of combustion processes. An overlap of government regulations associated with pollution and energy security can occur.

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Policy makers recognize the need to focus on the objectives of energy policy. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA)[11] Shared Goals focus on the equilibrium of ‘3 Es’ including the economic efficiency, the energy security, and the environmental protection. Therefore, the interactions between energy security measures and climate change mitigation have grown attention. Some plans illustrating these interactions include the white papers on energy measures in the UK (DTI, 2003[12]), Australia (Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004[13]), and France (MINEFI, 2003[14]). Concerning the EU, these policies are referred to green papers about energy security (EC, 2000[15]) and strategies for sustainable and secure energy (EC, 2006[16]).

Figure 1. Emissions, concentration and temperature changes corresponding to different stabilisation levels for CO2 concentrations.

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However, the analyses of interactions between energy security and climate changes are limited. The emissions reduction could affect the energy system, and interactions between energy security and climate changes ensuring the effectiveness of government actions. Concerning the emissions reduction, Figure 1 shows the relationship between the emissions, the concentration and the temperature changes by modelling the emissions profiles in order the CO2 concentrations to stabilise at various levels (IPCC, 2001[17]). The CO2 emissions should drop below 1990 levels in order to achieve stabilisation at 450, 650, or 1000 ppm within a few decades, a century, or about 2 centuries, respectively. However, the same ultimate atmospheric concentration could be achieved by different emission pathways. Indeed, the limited reduction of concentration is achieved by progressive and low-level emissions of air pollutants.

Energy Sector The greenhouse gas emissions mainly CO2 are related to the energy sector and can be decreased through one or the combination of the following suggests: •

•

•

•

Energy efficiency improvement: The effectiveness of power plant is improved by technological equipment including lighting equipment, appliances, cars, and buildings. The reduction of overall energy use can be attributed to behavioural changes towards more economical utilisation. Using fossil fuels with less carbon-intensive: The fossil fuel type characterizes the resulting emissions’ level. The most carbon-intensive fuel is coal with a carbon emission factor of approximately 26 tC/TJ, crude oil has a carbon emission factor of approximately 20 tC/TJ, and natural gas 15 tC/TJ (IPCC, 1997[18]). Using intensive fuels with less carbon lead to reduction of the level of emission per unit of energy produced. Utilizing energy sources characterized as emission-free: Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power are related to negligible emissions. Utilizing energy sources characterized as emission-free results in reduction of gas emissions. Capturing CO2 emissions: Carbon dioxide emissions generated during fuel combustion can be captured. An add-on component is installed to the energy production process and the carbon dioxide can then be captured in geological formations including oil and gas means, formations of coal beds or deep saline, in oceans, or through CO2 industrial fixation into inorganic carbonates (IPCC, 2001[19]) resulting in the reduction of air pollutants emissions into the atmosphere.

The ultimate climatic goal and the costs of action determine the stringency and timing of implementation of measures. The timeframe in which emissions could be eliminated could be assumed through the projections of emissions related to energy production. Figure 2 presents the projections of emissions related to energy production until 2030 following two scenarios, a reference and an alternative one where the measures are assumed to be achieved (IEA, 2006[20]). According to reference scenario, there are no new policies for the reduction of energy-related emissions, therefore the emissions’ level increases and in particular can achieve about 50% rise between

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2005 and 2030. In the case of alternative scenario, new measures are implemented resulting only in 27% increase in the emissions’ level between 2005 and 2030.

Figure 2. Projection of CO2 emissions related to energy production in the IEA reference and alternative policy scenario.

Energy Insecurity Response The losses of welfare relating to prices which are set at noncompetitive levels and to the fact that the energy is physically unavailable result in the energy insecurity external costs, which are difficult to be determined. The situation is difficult for the case of traded energy sources on international markets. As a result, a variety of tools has been set by the international governments for the mitigation of physical unavailability through the establishment of coordinated emergency oil stocks. The establishment of contingency plans by the government aims to address the limited consumptions when supply disruptions occur. Four main policy efforts have been established for the confrontation of energy insecurity: Disruptions of Energy Systems Related to Extreme Weather Conditions and Incidents The effect of Hurricane Katrina taking place in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005 on the energy system is a recent example of extreme weather incident. Due to this event, the refineries and other infrastructures related to energy must be completely or partially shutdown for several weeks or months in order to be repaired. The physical lack of petroleum led the IEA to release the stocks of oil stored since 1991. However, in industrial scale the establishment of construction standards, the usage of spare capacity sources ensuring a resilience level of the energy system avoiding costly disruption. The management of such incidents is affected primarily by the governments’ policy [21]. Supply and Demand Balancing in Electrical Markets The electricity quality benefits everyone since electricity cannot be stored and does not have different qualities. Without intervention from governments, the markets cannot manage the demand and supply balancing to provide an acceptable quality level and security of system without the intervention of governments [22]. For these reasons, independent Transmission System Operators (TSOs) have been established by the governments balancing the demand and supply and ensuring a quality standard.

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Failures of Regulatory Governments ensure market rules creating effective marketplaces. From the other hand, the gas and electricity networks are natural monopolies in most cases and their regulatory supervision is considered mandatory. The failures of regulatory affecting the energy security can occur. The confrontation of such situation is based on the monitoring and adjusting of regulatory frameworks. Fossil Fuel Resources Concentration The degree of concentration of fossil fuel resources depends on the resource’s capacity in certain areas worldwide and their production and transportation to the international markets. The concentration of fossil fuel resources is also linked to politically sensitive areas. The transportation of fossil fuels into the international market is defined by local geographic constraints such as trade routes through the Suez Canal or through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the entire energy system is influenced by the concentration of fossil fuel resourced. The main cause of energy insecurity is the irregular distribution of the concentration of fossil fuel resources worldwide. The Middle East holds the 62% of international oil stocks and the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members possess the 75% of international oil stocks. It should be notices that the countries of OECD countries only consume approximately 60% of global total. Concerning the gas stocks, the Russian Federation holds the 27%, Iran holds the 15%, and Qatar holds the 14% of global total while the countries of OECD consume around 50% of global total [23] (Figure 3). Oil resources found in the countries of Middle East and North African are more economically and easily accessible than the ones located in the OECD. Therefore, countries of OECD import huge quantities of oil; in 2004, countries of OECD imported the 59% of their total oil consumption and the 69% of their total gas consumption.

Figure 3. Effect of development and production costs on the crude oil stocks in countries of the Middle East and North Africa.

Much political concern occurs in OECD countries due to the inadequate levels of import oil and gas sources and the unstable political climate of countries that export these fuels resources. Figure 4 shows that the unstable political climate significantly affected the global oil

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supply deficiency. Concerning gas supply deficiency, until recently there has not been reported any shortfalls in this sector. However, in January 2006 the incident between Russia and Ukraine indicated the sensitivity of the gas sector to Europe and the potential gas supply shortfall.

Figure 4. Crude oil supply globally divisions.

Energy Security Assessment The assessment of energy security focuses on the combined quantitative and qualitative analysis. The quantitative analysis methodology is based on the usage of indicators to monitor the effects of the energy system alterations and the evaluation of policy interactions set by governments. The indicators of a quantitative analysis should be comprehensive and simple for the valuable correlation to a qualitative analysis. The indicators consist of the climate change and energy insecurity causes avoiding the direct assessment of impacts. Figure 5 illustrates the links of climate change due to anthropogenic activities. Stage I contains the human activity which causes the production of greenhouse gases (stage II), leading to increased concentrations in atmosphere (stage III). As a result, the natural greenhouse effect is enhanced resulting in increased temperatures (stage IV) affecting the natural and anthropogenic systems (stage V). However, many uncertainties are linked to each of these stages. For instance, in Stage II the greenhouse gases emissions due to the human activities can be determined through measurements with relative assurance taking into account the data of energy consumption and the factors of carbon dioxide emission. Nevertheless, the measurement of the effect on the concentrations of the atmosphere (stage III) requires more data such as the carbon dioxide exchanges among atmosphere, oceans and land, oceans, and the greenhouse gases evolution in the atmosphere. As a consequence, the measurement of the increased atmospheric temperatures (stage IV) is uncertainty [24]. And the accurate determination of impacts on climate (stage V) is a discouraging effort.

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Figure 5. Links related to the cycle of climate change.

Measurement of the Impacts of Energy Security of Resources Concentration Energy Security Analysis: Boundaries of Fossil Fuel Global Markets Due to the predominance and competition between the fossil fuel global markets, the determination of boundaries of fossil fuel global markets is a difficult effort. The identification of alternative substitutes for fossil fuels is a particular task.

Figure 6. Global share of fossil fuels in supply and demand sector.

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Fossil fuels are the primary materials for the implementation of crucial processes affecting the economic sector globally including the generation of heat and electricity, the processes in industrial sector, the transportation etc. (Figure 6). These processes include complex technological systems designed and developed over several years. The assessment of the substitutability of fuels requires the evaluation of the technological flexibility of fuels substitutes in these essential processes.

Figure 7. The monthly prices of fossil fuels during 2000-2006, on average.

The evolution of the prices of fossil fuels between 2000 and 2006 is illustrated in Figure 7. During this time period, average monthly crude oil prices were increased three times to over USD60/bbl. Concerning gas fuel, a rising trend is observed for the hub prices in the US (Henry

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Hub) and in the UK (National Balancing Point) and show over the six-year period, standing above the relative prices for oil fuel on an energy basis. In November 2005, the monthly average prices of NBP were approximately USD18/MMBtu. Concerning transportation, the vehicle power is covered by oil that met around 95% of transportation demands worldwide. However, the increase of oil prices resulted in increased prices of vehicle fuels across the countries of OECD leading to a decline in demand. Other types of transportation including waterways and rail did not provide the flexibility applied by road transportation and other types of fuels cannot be used as substitutes since the level of service is different compared to the oil fuel in transportation sector. Only biofuels could be a potential substitute to oil. They can be mixed with oil for the operation of vehicle engines [25]. However, the capacity of the biodiesel production is limited globally and thus the biofuels are not considered as an important substitute for diesel. Concerning the generation of heat and electricity, they cannot be stored in any important stock. Various plant infrastructures have different operational purposes. Coal and gas can be considered as potential substitutes serving similar usages. However, this type of substitutability is related to the spare capacity availability and on the capacity of fuel generation. Concerning the geographic boundaries of the global markets, the existing infrastructures and trade routes affects these boundaries. With regard to crude oil, the developed infrastructures result in decreased costs allowing the global trade. As shown in Figure 7, the price movements are reflected by this situation (Figure 7) correlating the benchmark of crude oils from the North Sea (Dated Brent), Gulf of Mexico (WTI Cushing) and Middle East (Dubai).

Energy Security Analysis: Measurement of the Power of Markets The quantification of the price of energy security is depended on the measurement of the concentration in each fossil fuels markets. However, a number of modifications is required in order to be described the concerns of energy security. Therefore, the energy security analysis can be characterized by two elements: • •

A modified measurement of concentration in each fossil fuels markets known as Energy Security Market Concentration (ESMC). The country exposure to energy security hazards defined as an Energy Security Index (ESI).

Energy Security Market Concentration (ESMC) The Herfindhal-Hirschman Index (HHI) is the basis of the Energy Security Market Concentration measure and it is equal to the sum of the square of the individual market shares of all the participants. For each fossil fuel f, the Energy Security Market Concentration measure (ESMC) is calculated by the following Equation (1): (1)

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where Sif is each supplier share (i) in the fuel (f) market determined by its net export potential (the values of Sif vary between 0-100%). The ESMC values vary from 0 signifying an absolutely competitive market type amongst countries, to 10000 for a total monopoly market type. Higher value of ESMC means smaller energy security. However, the equation could be modified taking into account a crucial factor linked to the political stability. As it is mentioned above, the energy security is affected by the concentration of fossil fuels geographically but also by the political climate occurred in the specific areas. This factor also influences the countries’ reliability as trade partners. For instance, the absence of political stability in Nigeria and Venezuela affected significantly the crude oil prices. Therefore, Equation 1 can be modified to define the measurement of ESMC value accounting the political stability determining the energy security impacts on resource concentration in fossil fuels markets, as follows (Equation 2): (2) where ri is the political climate hazard of a given country (i). The inclusion of this parameter should scale up market concentration risks when market participants are considered politically unstable. The r values vary between 1-3. Therefore the 3 level of political stability results in ESMCpol values that are 3 times higher than a country which is characterized by political stability (level 1). ESMCpol values vary from 0 for an absolutely competitive market type amongst countries with the aqequate political stability level (level 1) to 30000 for a total monopoly market type amongst countries with the worst political stability level.

Energy Security Index Price (ESI price) The measurements of ESMC or ESMCpol define the energy security price component in fossil fuels markets linked to the concentration of resources. By multiplying ESMCpol with the fuel’s country share, a detailed assessment of the role of each fuel could be determined. An Energy Security Index price (ESIprice) is defined as the sum of the products of ESMCpol for each fuel multiplying the share of the fuel (Equation 3): (3) where ESMCpol-f is the Energy Security Market Concentration of the global markets for fuel (f) and Cf/TPES is the share of the fuel. In the case of gas fuel, the situation is different depending on whether the gas price is set competitively or indexed to crude oil. In the case that the gas fuel price is set competitively, this is similar to the crude oil situation. In the case that the gas fuel prices are indexed to crude oil, this is dependent on the energy security price hazard in the crude oil markets. In Europe, the gas fuel price is mainly based on oil-indexed trading and partly on competition. Figure 8 depicts this process described above.

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Figure 8. Measurement of the energy security price.

Energy Security: Measurement of the Physical Availability In most European OECD countries, the majority of demand has been set by import contracts indexed on crude oil [26]. The imports to European countries is performed by using pipelines’ system since huge amounts of fossil fuels resources could be transported within a short distance (Figure 8). However, in Japan and Korea the gas fuel imports are based on LNG infrastructures due to geographical and geological limitations. Therefore, the distinction of the fuel transportation mode should be described for the evaluation of the physical unavailability of energy security.

Fuel Trade by Pipelines In the case of pipelines, a contract has been established between two countries. The country that imports the fuels can use the import infrastructure only for the import of the specific source and not of other sources. Moreover, the countries that supply fuels are not be able to enhance their production compensating a supply stock in import countries since their infrastructure usually operates at the highest capacity.

Fuel Trade by Pipelines and LNG The importing country has access to LNG infrastructures depending on physical availability limitations. The country combines the pipeline system and LNG imports compensating a supply stock.

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Fuel Trade by only LNG The country can use the LNG infrastructures to import LNG from elsewhere in the world. In this case, there is not any constraints of capacity and physical unavailability hazards limitations.

Figure 9. Infrastructure for gas fuel transportation in Europe.

Case Study: A Focus on East Mediterranean Energy Sector in the Mediterranean Area The development of energy sector in the Mediterranean area is fast and actually the energy growth is higher than those of population, economic and consumption sectors. This trend is high in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs) where the energy demands will be multiplied by 2.6 among 2006-2025. The factors that could explain this trend are associated to the development of industries through automation and new processes’ application and to the improvement of living status [27] (Figure 10). The last three decades the energy capacity in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs) has considerably grown reaching 413 GW in 2006. The share of natural gas in the energy capacity of Mediterranean region is separated as follows: 25% by power generation park, 24% by hydropower, 17% by nuclear, 15% by crude oil, 15% by coal and 4% by renewable energies. Until 2020, new energy plants were completed attributing to approximately 208 GW of energy capacity in this region. It should be noticed that the share of crude oil capacity is decreased in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs) (Figure 11).

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Figure 10. Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs): Trends in specific parameters (energy, population, economic and consumption) between 1970-2025 (https://www.ome.org/).

Figure 11. Energy capacity in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs) (2006 and 2020).

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Fast Growing Energy Generation In the Mediterranean region, the energy generation has grown to 1816 TWh in the year of 2006 while in the year of 1971, it reached only 419 TWh, of which the 75% was produced in the Northern EU-Member Countries (NMCs) and the 25% in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs). However, the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries increased the energy by 7.8% whereas the Northern EU-Member Countries (NMCs) only by about 3.7% between 1971-2006 (Figure 12).

Figure 12. Fast growing energy generation in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean and the Northern EU-Member Countries.

Figure 13. Main energy producers’ countries in the Mediterranean region (TWh).

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By 2025, the energy generation in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries is forecasting to reach 3000 TWh appearing a growth rate of 2.7% between 2006-2025. In the Northern EU-Member Countries (NMCs), the energy generation should reach 1790 TWh (growth rate 1.5%) (Figure 13). Among the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries, Turkey and Egypt account for approximately 60% of the total energy generation. The development of economic sector affects the consumption rate of energy. The ratio of per capita energy consumption between the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries and the Northern EU-Member Countries has decreased from 1/8 to 1/4.2 in in 1971 and 2006, respectively and is going to by about 1/2.3 in 2025.

Energy Generation by Source Figure 5 illustrates the fast growth in energy generation by source in the Mediterranean region. Natural gas production rate increases by 11.5% while crude oil growth rate only by 0.7%. Crude Oil-based energy generation was 20 TWh in 1971 accounting to 57% of the total energy generation, decreased to 81 TWh in 2006 which corresponds to only 17% of the total energy generation and is forecasted to be 41 TWh in 2025 accounting only to 3% of the total energy generation. Coal-based energy generation is associated with Israel, Turkey and Morocco. It was 3 TWh in 1971 accounting to 10% of the total energy generation, increased to 92 TWh in 2006 which corresponds to 20% of the total energy generation and is expected to reach 252 TWh in 2025 accounting to 21% of the total energy generation. As far as hydro-based power generation is concerned, it was 10 TWh in 1971, increased to 62 TWh in 2006 and is expected to reach 142 TWh in 2025 accounting to 12% of the total energy generation. Renewable energy-based energy generation began in the decade of the 1990s especially in Morocco and Egypt and was 1.4 TWh in 2006 corresponding to 0.3% of total energy generation and is forecasted to reach 42 TWh in 2025 accounting to 3.4% of the total power generation [27]. Concerning nuclear-based energy generation, it is still developing especially in Egypt and Turkey (Figure 14).

Figure 14. Energy generation by source for Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (share of total energy generation).

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Concerning Northern EU-Member Countries (NMCs), Crude oil-based energy generation was 132 TWh in 1971 accounting to 34% of the total energy generation, decreased to 100 TWh in 2006 which corresponds to only 7% of the total energy generation and is expected to be 69 TWh in 2025 accounting only to 4% of the total energy generation. Coal-based energy generation was 83 TWh in 1971 accounting to 22% of the total energy generation, increased to 237 TWh in 2006 which corresponds to 18% of the total energy generation and is expected to reach 217 TWh in 2025 accounting to 12% of the total energy generation. Regarding hydro-based energy generation, it was 139 TWh in 1971, diminished to 139 TWh in 2006 and is expected to reach 204 TWh in 2025 accounting to 13% of the total energy generation. Renewable energy-based energy generation was only 5 TWh in 1971 corresponding to 1.3% of total energy generation, reached 69 TWh in 2006 accounting to 5.1% of total energy generation and is forcasted to reach 207 TWh in 2025 accounting to 12% of the total power generation. Nuclear-based energy generation begun in the 1970s with a project of France. The production was 15 TWh in 1971 corresponding to 4% of total energy generation, reached 515 TWh in 2006 accounting to 38% of total energy generation and is expected to elevate to 518 TWh in 2025 accounting to 29% of the total power generation (Figure 15).

Figure 15. Energy generation by source for Northern EU-Member Countries (share of total energy generation).

Energy Efficiency by Fossil Fuels Fossil fuels related to energy generation in the Mediterranean region was 220 Mtoe in 2006 representing the 23% of the total primary energy supply. The share of energy generation by fossils fuels is separated as follows: gas (45%), coal (35%) and crude oil (20%). Fossil fuels are forecasted to be 360 Mtoe by 2025 representing the 23% of the total primary energy supply divided into 63% for gas, 31% for coal and 7% for crude oil (Figure 16). As far as Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries is concerned, fossil fuels for energy generation reached 93 Mtoe in 2006 representing the 34% of the total primary energy supply divided into 55% for gas, 24% for coal and 22% for crude oil. Similarly, they should reach 194 Mtoe accounting to 32% of the total primary energy supply divided into 64% for gas, 31% for coal and 5% for crude oil.

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Figure 16. Inputs of fossil fuel in energy generation.

Figure 17. Inputs of fossil fuel in energy generation for Southern and Eastern Mediterranean and Northern EU-Member Countries.

Concerning Northern EU-Member Countries, fossil fuels for energy generation reached 127 Mtoe in 2006 representing the 18% of the total primary energy supply divided into 38% for gas, 44% for coal and 18% for crude oil. Similarly, they should reach 166 Mtoe accounting to 20% of the total primary energy supply divided into 61% for gas, 30% for coal and 9% for crude oil (Figure17).

Options for CO2 Emissions Decrease for Energy Sector In 2006, the share CO2 emissions in energy sector in the Mediterranean area represents 30% of the total CO2 emissions. Concerning Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries, the share was 36% of the total CO2 emissions compared to the one in the Northern EU-Member Countries that was 27% of the total CO2 emissions. Therefore, the amounts of CO2 generated by energy sector were 636 Mt in 2006, of which 253 Mt are associated to Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries and 383 Mt to Northern EU-Member Countries [27]. By 2025, it is expected an increase of the amounts of CO2 generated by energy sector reaching 992 Mt in the Mediterranean region while the share CO2 emissions in energy sector is forecasted to remain stable at about 30% (Figure 18).

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Figure 18. CO2 emissions in the energy sector by source (natural gas, crude oil and coal).

Figure 19. CO2 emissions in the energy sector for Southern and Eastern Mediterranean and Northern EU-Member Countries.

Measurements for CO2 Concentration Reduction The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere could be reduced by adopting specific measurements linked to the energy sector. The first action contains the isolation of CO2 by traditional energy plant fumes. This could be performed at different production process stages: after, before or during the combustion. By applying this activity, the CO2 emissions could be reduced over 85% in energy plants.

Post-Combustion CO2 Trap The fumes/gases should be treated after the combustion stage. Firstly, the isolation of sulphur oxides (SOx) is performed. The residual mix consisted of CO2 (15%) is then transferred to an absorption tower which contains a chemical solvent that traps CO2. The large volume of gases is a major issue for the treatment of CO2 since it is diluted at low pressures. Then, the recovery of CO2 is carried out by heating the solvent in a second tower. The solvent consists mainly of amines that are able to capture the CO2. One of the main disadvantages of that type o solvents is their quick deterioration and the need of the use new amines (1kg) every 1 tons of trapped CO2. Apart from CO2, there are other pollutants such as

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nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx) etc. that are toxic and harmful for human contributing to the atmosphere pollution and climate change.

Figure 20. Post-combustion CO2 trap.

Pre-Combustion CO2 Trap In this type of operation, the combustible material is burned with oxygen (O2) in a steam reforming unit. In the case of coal or biomass as combustible materials, a gasification stage is carried out before the steam reforming unit. Hydrogen (H2) and CO2 are generated by these processes.

Figure 21. Pre-combustion CO2 trap.

Oxycombustion Oxycombustion process is based on the combination of the aspects of the other processed. The combustion process is carried out in one stage by using pure oxygen. The generating fumes consist of CO2 and water steam.

Figure 22. Oxycombustion.

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In this process, the amount of CO2 that should be captured is significantly decreased. Another advantage of this process is the significant decrease of NOx and SOx emissions. The difficulties of this system is the resistance of the materials to the extreme temperature conditions during the pure oxygen combustion and also the energy cost due to the application of cryogenic distillation for the air separation. An effort to reduce the cost of pure oxygen production has been made by the French Petroleum Institute and is known as ‘the chemical looping process’:

Figure 23. Oxycombustion: Chemical looping process.

Conclusion In this study, the literature on the interactions between energy security and climate change has been reviewed. The energy policy and the general strategies in relation to the five dimensions of the Energy Union were described. The measurement of the impacts of energy security of resources concentration through the use of specific mathematical indexes and the case study focused on Mediterranean region was also approached. However, the following limitations would enhance the approach of the interactions between the energy security and the climate change. 1. Currency of the science: There is a limit of the recent literature on energy security and climate change since the most projects illustrating these concepts have been carried out until 2010. 2. Regional focus: The most literature focuses on issues in North European Countries and only few sources describe the effect of climate change on the energy security in the Mediterranean region. 3. Analysis level: Climate change and energy security are concepts that require evaluation on a wide scale by integrating data of climate change with socioeconomical and political information. Generally, this work can guide academic research and policymakers to approach and solve issues involved the interactions between energy security and climate change.

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References [1] [2]

[3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27]

Bazilian, M., A. Sagar, R. Detchon, and K. Yumkella, An Energy Policy Approach to Climate Change. Energy for Sustainable Development. Elsevier. 2010. Bazilian, M., B. F. Hobbs, W. Blyth, I. MacGill, and M. Howells, “Interactions between energy security and climate change: A focus on developing countries.” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 3750–3756, 2011. Blyth, W. and N. Lefevre, Energy Security and Climate Change Policy Interactions. IEA, Paris. 2004. Blyth, W., R. Bradley, D. Bunn, C. Clarke, T. Wilson, and M. Yang, “Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy.” Energy Policy, vol. 35, no. 11, pp. 5766–5773, 2007. Farrell, A. E., H. Zerriffi, and H. Dowlatabadi, “Energy infrastructure and security,” Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., vol. 29, pp. 421–469, 2004. Luft, G., A. Korin, and E. Gupta, Energy security and climate change: a tenuous link. In The Routledge Handbook of Energy Security. Routledge. 2010. Prontera, A. and M. Ruszel, “Energy security in the Eastern Mediterranean. Middle East Policy, 24(3),” 2017. Stergiou, A. “Energy security in the Eastern Mediterranean.,” Int. J. Glob. Energy Issues, vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 320–334, 2017. Murinson, A. Strategic Realignment and Energy Security in the Eastern Mediterranean. The BeginSadat Center for Strategic Studies. 2012. Stergiou, A. Geopolitics and Energy Security in the Eastern Mediterranean: The Formation of new ‘Energy Alliances’. The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean, 11. 2019. IEA, (International Energy Agency) (2006a), Natural Gas Market Review 2006: Towards a Global Gas Market, IEA/OECD, Paris, France.,” 2006. DTI, (Department of Trade and Industry), White Paper: Our Energy Future – Creating a Low Carbon Economy, London, UK. 2003. Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Securing Australia’s Energy Future, Canberra, Australia. 2004. MINEFI, (Ministère de l’Economie, des Finances et de l’Industrie), Livre Blanc sur les énergies [White paper on energies], Paris. 2003. EC, (European Commission), Green Paper: Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply, COM(2000) 769 final, Brussels, Belgium. 2000. EC, (European Commission), Green Paper: The European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive, and Secure Energy, COM (2006) 105 final, Brussels, Belgium. 2006. IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 2001. IPCC, Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC/OECD/IEA, Paris, France. 1997. IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Mitigation, Third Assessment Report, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 2001. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, IEA/OECD, Paris, France. 2006. IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion: 2005 Edition, IEA/OECD, Paris, France. 2005. IEA, Lessons from Liberalized Electricity Markets, IEA/OECD, Paris, France. 2005. BP, (British Petroleum) Putting Energy in the Spotlight: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2005, BP, London, UK. 2005. IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Third Assessment Report, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 2001. IEA, World Energy Outlook, IEA/OECD, Paris, France. 2004. IEA, Natural Gas Market Review 2006: Towards a Global Gas Market, IEA/OECD, Paris, France. 2006. Bleu, P. Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean. Regional Activity Center, Sophia Antipolis, Valbonne. 2008.

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Chapter 3

Climate Change and Challenges That Are Being Created Nenad Taneski*, PhD, Sasha Smileski†, MSc and Andrej Iliev‡, PhD The General Mihailo Apostolski Military Academy, Skopje, North Macedonia

Abstract This study provides a common starting point for understanding and discussing disasters, disaster management and disaster preparedness as part of every society's mission, and discusses the potential scope of disaster preparedness measures. The following text is appropriate for anyone who has general responsibilities for disaster management and programme implementation. Benefit from reading this study can have non-technical personnel interested in acquiring a better understanding of disaster preparedness and the strategies and measures that may be implemented as well. The most essential but difficult part in the management of disaster is identifying the risk and vulnerabilities of the local communities. The biggest motivation for this study comes from the two important professional challenges confronting emergency managers in the coming years. There are the professionalization of emergency management, involvement in hazard mitigation, involvement in preimpact disaster recovery planning, expansion of the professional domain and regional collaboration. One of the most important goals is involving youth in disaster preparedness and recovery efforts. Youth-serving agencies can help to not only increase youths' awareness of particular hazards, but can also enhance the chance that they openly discuss how to adequately protect their families and loved ones and understand how to seek help.

Keywords: disaster, management, preparedness, climate change

Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected]. Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected]. ‡ Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected]. *

†

In: The Challenges of Disaster Planning, Management, and Resilience Editor: Michail Chalaris ISBN: 979-8-88697-229-0 © 2023 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

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Introduction Climate change is a planetary crisis that is leaving no corner of the world untouched. Failure to aggressively address this crisis will have dire consequences for us all. Conversely, responding to the climate crisis helps avoid these dangerous consequences, and incentivizes economic, technological, ecological, and socio-political innovations in the every systems it threatens. Vital signs of climate change affects the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events, attars precipitation patterns, disrupts ecological systems, and causes temperatures and sea levels to rise. These changes in turn exacerbate economic, socio-cultural, and ecological inequities, and contribute to hunger, poverty, malnutrition, displacement, fragility, and increased mortality. Climate change impacts go beyond just environmental sector to affect human health, nutrition, and food security, ecosystems and biodiversity, peace and stability, and access to essential services, such as health care, water, sanitation and hygiene, and education. Causes of climate change threatens to drive increases in maternal and child malnutrition, is an increasing threat to national security, and contributes to migration, displacement and increased pressure on scarce government resources. Climate change also exacerbates inequalities, increasing the vulnerability of marginalized and underrepresented populations to gender-based violence, dispossession and disembowelment. The climate crisis is occurring concurrently with other global crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, food and water insecurity, accelerated extinctions and increasing violence and conflict.

Defining Disaster and Resilience There are many different definitions of disaster. Most such definitions tend to reflect the following characteristics [1]: − − − −

Disruption to normal patterns of life. Such disruption is usually severe and may also be sudden, unexpected, and widespread. Human effects such as loss of life, injury, hardship, and adverse effect on health. Effects on social structure such as destruction of or damage to government systems, buildings, communications, and essential services. Community needs such as shelter, food, clothing, medical assistance, and social care.

Two dictionary definitions are: 1. Concise Oxford Dictionary: “Sudden or great misfortune, calamity.” 2. Webster’s Dictionary: “A sudden calamitous event producing great material damage, loss, and distress.” We can define the disaster as an event, natural or man-made, sudden or progressive, which impacts with such severity that the affected community has to respond by taking exceptional measures.

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In relation to the definition of disaster, it has also been taken into account that disaster management is essentially a dynamic process. The process is consisted of the classical management functions of planning, organizing, staffing, leading, and controlling. It also involves many organizations which must work together to prevent, mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from the effects of disaster. Disaster management is defined as [2]: An applied science which seeks, by the systematic observation and analysis of disasters, to improve measures relating to prevention, mitigation, preparedness, emergency response and recovery.

There is an important practical application of the definition of disaster in disaster management. Such definition helps provide a common concept and theme throughout disaster management activities. Thus, the chosen definition is valuable for purposes of policy, organization, planning, and legislation. It is suggested that individual nations and organizations should choose a definition that the most suitable for their purposes and apply it accordingly. Additionally, resilience is the focus of a large and growing body of research. This work has sought to understand what the properties are that make a country, community or household resilient, to establish the principles and processes which strengthen resilience and to build the evidence for what projects and programmes really make people better able to withstand and recover from disasters. As a result of the research and its applications, the term resilience has acquired a range of definitions: The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner. (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organization, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) The capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change. (The Resilience Alliance)

Climate Change Rising fossil fuel burning and land use changes have emitted, and continuing to emit, increasing quantities of greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere. The greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen dioxide (N2O), and a rise in these gases has caused a rise in the amount of heat from the sun withheld in the Earth’s atmosphere, heat that would normally be radiated back into space. This increase in heat has led to the greenhouse effect, resulting in climate change. The main characteristics of climate change are increases in average global temperature (global warming), changes in cloud cover and precipitation particularly over land, melting of ice caps and glaciers and reduced snow cover, and increases in ocean temperatures and ocean acidity, due to seawater absorbing heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

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The major impacts and threats of global warming are widespread. Increasing ocean temperatures cause thermal expansion of the ocean and in combination with melt water from land-based ice this is causing sea level rise. Sea levels rose during the 20th century by 0.17 meters. By 2100, sea level is expected to rise between 0.18 and 0.59 meters. There are uncertainties in this estimate mostly due to uncertainty about how much water will be lost from ice sheets [3], for example Greenland is showing wising loss of mass in recent years (UNEP 2007) [4]. Increased melting of sea ice and freshwater influx from melting glaciers and ice sheets also has potential to influence global patterns of ocean circulation. As a result of global warming, the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), floods, droughts and heavy precipitation events, are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases. Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed, for example, increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events [5]. Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the environment, and on socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity and coastal zones. Changes in rainfall pattern are likely to lead to severe water shortages and/or flooding. Melting of glaciers can cause flooding and soil erosion. Rising temperatures will cause shifts in crop growing seasons which affects food security and changes in the distribution of disease vectors putting more people at risk from diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. Temperature increases will potentially severely increase rates of extinction for many habitats and species (up to 30 per cent with a 2°C rise in temperature). Particularly affected will be coral reefs, boreal forests, and Mediterranean and mountain habitats. Increasing sea levels mean greater risk of storm surge, inundation and wave damage to coastlines, particularly in small Island States and countries with lying deltas. A rise in extreme events will have effects on health and lives as well as associated environmental and economic impacts. Adaptation is process through which societies make themselves better able to cope with an uncertain future. Adapting to climate change entails taking the right measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change (or exploit the positive ones) by making the appropriate adjustments and changes. There are many options and opportunities to adapt. These ranges from technological options such as increased sea defenses or flood-proof houses on stilts, to behavior change at the individual level, such as reducing water use in times of drought and using insecticide-sprayed mosquito nets. Other strategies include early warning systems for extreme events, better water management, and improved risk management, various insurance options and biodiversity conservation. Because of the speed at which change is happening due to global temperature rise, it is urgent that the vulnerability of developing countries to climate change is reduced and their capacity to adapt is increased and national adaptation plans are implemented. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries is vital and has been highlighted by them as having a high or urgent priority. Although uncertainty remains about the extent of climate change impacts, in many developing countries there is sufficient information and knowledge available on strategies and plans to implement adaptation activities now. However, developing countries have limitations in capacity making adaptation difficult. Limitations include both human capacity and financial resources. Strategies and programmes that are more likely to succeed need to ling with coordinated efforts aimed at poverty alleviation, enhancing food security and water availability, combating land degradation and

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reducing loss of biological diversity and ecosystem service, as well as improving adaptive capacity. Adapting to climate change will entail adjustments and changes at every level – from community to national and international. Communities must build their resilience, including adopting appropriate technologies while making the most of traditional knowledge, and diversifying their livelihoods to cope with current and future climate stress. Local coping strategies and traditional knowledge need to be used in synergy with government and local interventions. The choice of adaption interventions depends on national circumstances. To enable workable and effective adaptation measures, ministries and governments, as well as institutions and non-government organizations, must consider integrating climate change in their planning and budgeting in all levels of decision making [6].

Building a Cleaner and More Resilient Transportation Sector The transportation sector—including cars, trucks, buses, airplanes, rail, and other modes—is the largest source of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Across modes, the story is similar: emissions are a function of the vehicle’s fuel efficiency, the fuel’s carbon intensity, and the number of miles traveled each year. Each part of the transportation sector, however, is at a different stage of zero-emission technological innovation and faces unique challenges to decarburization and, as a result, may require a tailored policy approach. Well-designed policy should lead to new manufacturing and supply chain innovations that create good-paying jobs at home and bolster competitiveness. In addition to contributing to the climate problem, transportation infrastructure is heavily exposed to extreme weather and climate impacts, from floods that wash out bridges and roads to heat waves that ground airplanes. Without proactive action to build resilience, climate change will compromise the reliability and capacity of even the cleanest transportation systems. Congress should expedite deployment of zero-emission technologies in the sectors where they are already available while making new gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles as clean as possible. This should include setting strong greenhouse gas emissions standards for cars, heavyduty trucks, and aviation; enacting a national sales standard to achieve 100% sales of zeroemission cars by 2035 and heavy-duty trucks by 2040; and providing incentives to build out zeroemission fueling infrastructure across the country. Ambitious initiatives to ensure more domestic manufacturing of cleaner vehicles and their components must accompany these policies. At the same time, Congress should establish a Low Carbon Fuel Standard to reduce emissions from remaining gasoline-powered vehicles and transportation modes for which electrification may not be an option in the short to medium term, such as aviation, long-haul trucking, and shipping. Congress also should invest in aggressive research to develop and demonstrate new zero-emission technologies and fuels for these harder-to-decarbonize parts of the transportation sector. Cutting pollution from passenger vehicles becomes a more challenging task if drivers must travel farther each year to access jobs and services. Congress needs to work with local communities and states to make housing, businesses, and critical services more accessible and double federal spending on public transit and other zero-carbon modes to provide households with more lower-carbon, convenient, and affordable transportation options. Federal policy should ensure that all transportation systems are designed, maintained, and repaired to withstand climate impacts [7].

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Conclusion This chapter draws the direct connection between the warming world and the resulting threats to people lives and livelihoods. Solving the climate crisis provides the opportunity to acknowledge and commit to correcting the systemic economic and racial inequalities that plague our communities today and exacerbate the impacts of climate change. That is why justice and equity are at the core of the solutions put forward. Confronting the climate crisis requires action across sectors and at all levels of government. The climate crisis is inextricably linked to the social, economic, and environmental challenges that afflict the nation and world today. But by working together, we can avert the worst impacts of climate change and build a stronger, healthier, and fairer environment for everyone. What we choose to do now shapes the future for young people on the front lines of the climate crisis.

References [1] [2] [3]

[4] [5]

[6] [7]

Carter, W. Nick, Disaster Management : A Disaster Manager’s Handbook, Mandaluyong City, Phil : Asian Development Bank, 2008. Climate Change : Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2007. Bindoff, N. L., J. Willebrand, V. Artale, A. Cazenave, J. Gregory, S. Gulev, K. Hanawa, C. Le Quere, S. Levitus, Y. Nojiri, C. K. Shum, L. D. Talley and A. Unnikrishan, 2007 : Observations : Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level. In : Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovemmental Pannel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Climate Change : Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2007. Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T., Collins, W., Friedlingstein, P., Thierno Gaye, A. T., Gregory J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., Zhao Z.-C. (2007) Global Climate Projections. In : Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Army Emergency Management Program, Army Regulation 525-27, 29 March 2019. Paul A. Philips and Luiz Moutinho, The Strategic Planning Index : A Tool for Measuring Strategic Planning Effectivités, Journal of Travel Research 2000.

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Chapter 4

University Actions for Disaster Risk Reduction and Developing Urban Resilience Gislaine dos Santos1, *, Jordan Henrique de Souza1, Marcela Martins Carrara2 and Rafaela de Mauro Tortorelli2 1 Department

of Transport and Geotechnics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil 2 Engineering College, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Abstract The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), between 2010 and 2020, developed the Campaign “Making Cities Resilient: My city is getting ready!”. To continue the Campaign, UNDRR launched the Initiative “Making Cities Resilient 20202030” to mobilize local managers in compliance with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Initiative has an information panel that brings together the global register of cities and partner institutions that develops actions on this theme. However, implementation is not a reality due to the lack of training for public servants on the subject. Attentive to the need for public managers to train disaster risk reduction and resilience, the Federal University of Juiz de Fora (UFJF), through teaching, research, and extension activities, became a partner in 2020 the Campaign and in 2021 of the Initiative. UFJF partnered with the Municipality of Juiz de Fora in 2020 to apply the Self-Assessment tool for resilience - preliminary level, began the work of translating the tools and support materials for the Brazilian Portuguese. In this context, UFJF structured a course of the translated tools aimed at disseminating the Initiative and contributing to the construction of a culture of management and planning using the tools for managers to develop the local resilience plan. The short course was completely online and free of charge for those interested. In addition to translating the tools and materials for Brazilian Portuguese, two free and online editions of the course “Making Cities Resilient - MCR2030 were developed”. The course “Making Cities Resilient - MCR2030” seeks to empower local managers in developing local plans and strategies to increase disaster resilience by applying tools aligned with the MCR2030 Initiative. In the two studies held in 2021, there were 341 *

Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected].

In: The Challenges of Disaster Planning, Management, and Resilience Editor: Michail Chalaris ISBN: 979-8-88697-229-0 © 2023 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

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Gislaine dos Santos, Jordan Henrique de Souza, Marcela Martins Carrara et al. graduates, where 86.5% of the students had ties with the local government. Among the graduates were representatives from 147 Brazilian cities and 26 cities from 4 other countries. From this perspective, the analyses of the performance and knowledge of the students proved the relevance of actions in the democratization of information for the development of global agendas at the local and regional levels. They also highlighted the importance of providing specialization courses to contribute to more in-depth training on the theme of public managers. In 2021, he started the first Lato Sensu Specialization class in Public Management in Civil Protection and Defense (GPPDC). The next Lato Sensu Specialization course is scheduled for 2023: Disaster Resilient Cities. Thus, this chapter presents the pedagogical methodologies of the two editions of the course “Making Cities Resilient - MCR2030” and analyzes the results achieved. In addition, it presents other opportunities found for the development of training focused on global agendas at local and regional levels. In addition to encouraging other cities to apply the tools and enroll in MCR2030, the study can boost other universities in developing resilient local and regional capacity through institutional partnerships. The study can also provide information to the Making Cities Resilient 2030 Initiative to update tools and methodologies.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction, local resilience plan, capacity, public university, resilience, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)

Introduction The complexity and challenges of disaster risk management are increasing as climate change has intensified the frequency of disasters and caused overlaps of extreme events (IPCC 2021). Despite global efforts, between 2000 and 2019, some 1.23 million people died, and more than 4 billion people were affected by the disasters (CRED 2020, 6). Disaster damage to the global economy in the same period was estimated at US$2.97 trillion, representing an increase of 53% compared to the impacts of disasters between 1980 and 1999 (CRED 2020, 6). In this context, international regulatory agendas and frameworks for disaster risk reduction (RRD) and sustainable development are included to mobilize governments and civil society to build a safer world. Therefore, we can highlight the Campaign “Making Resilient Cities: My city is getting ready 2010-2020”, launched by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), to raise awareness about DRR and implement disaster risk reduction plans. Thus, continuing the Campaign, the MCR2030 Initiative was developed by UNDRR to collaborate with the achievement of global frameworks such as Sustainable Development Goal 11 (SDG11) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (MCR2030 2022). However, the implementation at a local level of global frameworks and achievement of the established goals is not yet a reality due mainly to the need for training of public servants in the theme. Since the beginning of the MCR2030 Initiative in 2020, the number of Brazilian cities registered exceeded 200 (UNDRR 2022), signaling the interest of public managers in the theme. However, national data demonstrate the need to develop more consistent integrated policies for disaster risk management at a local level.

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Although 79% of Brazilian cities had some occurrence of disasters between 2010 and 2019 (UFSC 2020), by 2020 only 13.1% had a Municipal Risk Reduction Plan, and 50.6% had an urban planning instrument that included risk prevention (IBGE 2020). Attentive to national and international needs, the Federal University of Juiz de Fora, as a participant entity of the Campaign and currently of the Initiative, has been performing activities with UNDRR since 2020 aligned with disaster risk reduction and developing urban resilience. In the meantime, he developed editions of the course “Making Cities Resilient MCR2030” online and free of charge to empower public managers in the use of self-assessment tools in developing local strategies and plans to build disaster resilience. The activities seek to increase the number of cities implementing comprehensive plans and strategies for disaster risk reduction, adaptation to climate change, and building resilience, depending on the goal set and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR, 2015). Thus, the objective of this chapter is to describe the two editions of the course, specifically analyzing the adversities encountered, the pedagogical methodologies used, and the results achieved. In this sense, the research can motivate more universities to develop the training model in the theme, besides encouraging other cities to apply the tools and enroll in the MCR2030. In addition, it can highlight the importance of adapting and improving the tools and methodologies of the Making Cities Resilient 2030 Initiative to the local reality, demonstrating that institutional partnerships are relevant for disaster risk reduction and urban resilience.

“Making Cities Resilient” Initiative, 2020-2030 The UNDRR launched the Global Making Cities Resilient Campaign between 2010 and 2020, focusing on raising awareness, promoting disaster risk reduction, and strengthening local leadership and political will to reduce disaster risk. Thus, the campaign provided solutions and tools for identifying gaps in local government resilience capacities (UNDRR 2015). In the end, 4360 cities were enrolled in the Campaign Making Cities Resilient 2010-2020, where 1079 were Brazilian cities. The Making Resilient Cities Initiative emerged in 2020 to continue the campaign’s actions. In this sense, the Initiative aims to improve local resilience through advocacy, knowledge sharing, and experiences, establishing city-to-city learning networks that reinforce each other, injecting technical knowledge, connecting various layers of government, and building partnerships by 2030 (UNDRR 2022). In order to guide local governments on the journey of urban resilience, the Initiative has developed a 3-stage roadmap for urban resilience that includes awareness about the theme, planning, and implementation of local resilience plans. It also provides tools and indicators for monitoring and partner contacts to assist cities with technical expertise. The Initiative, in February 2022, has 936 registered cities, of which 218 are Brazilian (UNDRR 2022).

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Landslides

16.8%

Floods or Flash Floods

30.7%

Gradual Floods

32.2%

Flooding or erosion processes

35.2%

Drought 0.0%

52.4% 10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Figure 1. Percentage of Brazilian municipalities affected by disasters.

The Brazilian Context The continuous process of urbanization and population density of Brazilian cities, associated with inefficient or absent social, economic and public policies factors, contributes to the increase in the number of people living in areas at risk of landslides, gradual floods and flash floods (Oliveira 2020). According to Figure 1, regarding the occurrence of disasters, as described by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), between 2017 and 2020, 52.4% of Brazilian municipalities were affected by droughts, 35.2% by flooding or erosive processes, 32.17% gradual floods, 30.7% by floods or flash floods and 16.8% by landslides. It is also notepoint that between 2000 and 2019, 3,816 people died and 7,175,852 were homeless and displaced due to disasters in Brazil (UFSC 2020). In the same period the total damage in 65 billion reais (UFSC 2020). In this context, the Brazilian Federal Law, no. 12,608, of April 10, 2012, is included, which describes that it is the union, states and municipalities: I - to develop a national culture of disaster prevention, aimed at developing national awareness about the risks of disaster in the country; II - stimulate prevention behaviors capable of avoiding or minimizing the occurrence of disasters (Translated from Planalto 2012). Remarkably, actions that integrate local and regional institutions are essential for developing and implementing strategies for prevention, mitigation, alertness, response, and recovery in disaster situations throughout the national territory. In addition, the Brazilian Federal Decree, no. 10,692 of May 3, 2021, establishes a National Registry of Municipalities with Areas Susceptible to the Occurrence of Large Impact Landslides, Sudden Floods, or Geological or Hydrological Processes Correlated (Planalto 2021). This law implies the municipality survey data on the existence of disaster risk areas. Thus, the municipality will have a mapping of the areas susceptible to the occurrence of disaster and can implement strategies for disaster risk reduction. Even though there is a national regulatory structure, the fundamental parameters in risk analysis are not defined, and there are no clear procedures for building resilient communities. Also, there is excellent media and legislative attention to the typologies of geological and hydrological hazards; however, an integrated and expanded vision for risk management is

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necessary. In addition, the absence or precarious availability of local specialists with technical capabilities to assess multiple hazards is added. In this context, it is necessary to join forces between the various entities of the Federation, communities, and educational institutions, aiming to adopt diagnostic practices, prevention, and technical advice in the municipalities; after all, disasters happen in the municipalities (Souza 2018).

Federal University of Juiz de Fora The Federal University of Juiz de Fora (UFJF) is a Brazilian public university headquartered in Juiz de Fora. More than 23,000 students are enrolled, of which about 15,000 are part of the face-to-face graduation (UFJF 2022). The campus of Juiz de Fora currently offers about 50 undergraduate courses, 30 master’s degrees, 14 doctorate courses, 57 specialization courses, MBA, and residency. About 250 extension projects have been developed (UFJF 2022). UFJF is ranked among the top 100 universities in Latin America (Times Higher Education 2021). Therefore, the institution operates as a scientific and cultural center of the region, prioritizing dialogue with society and meeting all the precepts of teaching, research, and extension. Since 2012, professors and students have been developing activities related to disaster risk reduction and urban resilience within the Engineering college. The first projects involved different internal departments of UFJF in developing activities for cartographic and statistical characterization of the Hydrographic Basin and the Study of soil erodibility by geotechnical tests. Since 2014, UFJF and the Minas Gerais Military Fire Department (CBMMG) have been active under the mutual collaboration agreement in university extension (Oliveira 2020). Thus, UFJF is motivated to carry out actions that add technical capabilities to firefighters – local managers who work before, during, and after the disaster. Therefore, the military is a public of relevant performance and propagation in the activities carried out by UFJF. The partnership established with the Military Fire Department of Minas Gerais developed the Álea application in 2018, a computational tool to help map risk areas that collects and archives information about the studied site (SOUZA 2018). The application seeks to boost the mapping of risk areas, facilitate the process and prevent the loss of information. The Alea application systematizes the mapping of risk areas and the registration of information obtained in the field (SOUZA 2018). In a pioneering initiative, UFJF held courses, training, and events to train members and military firefighters from other units and municipal civil defenses in the use of the Álea Application. Through partnerships established with the Municipal School Presidente Tancredo Neves and the Municipal School Professor Augusto Gotardelo, UFJF also developed projects for environmental education aimed at children through the project “Learn to Prevent”, involving disaster risk reduction and urban resilience. The main objective of the project “Learning to Prevent” activities was to reiterate the value of education in reducing the risk of disasters and building resilient communities, to increase the capacity of children in the theme of hazards, risks, disasters, and resilience.

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In 2020, UFJF was a partner of the Municipality of Juiz de Fora and promoted the Workshop Juiz de Fora More Resilient, supporting the Municipality of Juiz de Fora in applying the Preliminary Resilience Self-Assessment Tool. After the event, the University prepared a technical report with an analysis of the results found to provide data for the municipality to develop plans and strategies on the subject and exemplify, for other cities, the methodology of application of the tool. In this sense, in 2020, UFJF became a partner of the Campaign Making Cities Resilient 2010-2020, and seeking to continue the actions developed, it became, in 2021, a participant entity of the Initiative Making Cities Resilient 2030 - MCR2030, as an organization: Academic and research institution. In 2021, UFJF translated for Brazilian Portuguese the tools, manuals, and other materials arranged by the MCR2030 Initiative and published them on the website for broad access of managers and the community. Related to translation, the team of academics and professors studied and conducted training to improve the use of these tools for application in the local and regional context. In the face of all efforts, focused on the translation and interpretation of materials for the local and regional context, UFJF structured the course “Making Cities Resilient” with the support of the UNDRR to empower local managers in the use of the tools and methodologies. It is worth emphasizing the importance of institutional partnerships established by UFJF on its path to collaboration to promote the resilience. Thus, it is demonstrated possibilities of empowerment to the cities so that they, together with the community, exercise strong leadership in safety and quality of life. The partnerships promoted synergy and were able to meet training needs and offer technical and scientific skills to local managers, and global agendas, which offer materials and strategies for disaster risk reduction and the promotion of resilient cities.

Methods The latent need to build a culture of management and disaster-resilient planning, associated with the importance of offering training in the theme, evidence of the role of Higher Education Institutions and their activities, characterized mainly by the link with the needs of society. In this sense, the articulations between the UFJF and institutions promote disaster risk reduction and resilience building, as shown in Figure 2. In 2014, through the mutual collaboration agreement with the Military Fire Department of Minas Gerais, UFJF developed the Álea Application for Mapping Risk Areas due to the military’s demand to organize data and map risk areas centrally and technically. In parallel, to demonstrate the use of the application, the Training Course for Mapping Risk Areas with the Álea Application was implemented by UFJF, offering technical support for its application and the availability of specific materials for the theme. In 2021, also seeking to strengthen the links with CBMMG and the need for training of technical staff of higher level in Municipal Coordination of Protection and Civil Defense, as well as the Military Fire Brigades, was developed the Specialization Lato Sensu in Public Management in Protection and Civil Defense.

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Figure 2. Flowchart on the methodology used in the course.

In 2020, UFJF and the Municipality of Juiz de Fora signed an agreement generating products to update the cartographic basis on current geographical standards. This product enabled a cohesion of information carried over and registered between civil defense, health, and territorial planning agencies. Still within the interinstitutional articulations, UFJF, in 2020, became a partner of the Campaign Making Cities Resilient. In this sense, he developed activities organized between academics and professors to study and translate the Resilience Self-Assessment Tool Preliminary Level, material provided by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Thus, associated with the partnership of the city of Juiz de Fora in the campaign, the application of the tool was carried out, and then the Workshop Juiz de Fora + Resilient was held. Finally, the application results were compiled and presented in a public hearing at the Municipality of Juiz de Fora.

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With the end of the Campaign, UFJF, motivated to continue aligned with major global agendas, entered as a participant entity of the Making Cities Resilient Initiative. Thus, the UFJF team mobilized for the translation of materials arranged by UNDRR and conducted in-depth and continuous studies for the application in the local and regional context of these tools. Therefore, considering the need to democratize information from large global agendas and UNDRR’s technical support, teachers and students structured the “Making Cities Resilient” Course by adapting vocabularies and disseminating UNDRR materials to the local reality, openly and free of charge. The course addresses the current trends of Disaster Risk in the national scenario, from the methodology of use and application of tools with guidelines for elaborating the Local Resilience Plan and presents the Making Cities Resilient 2030 Initiative (MCR2030) its strategic objectives and the roadmap. In addition, it presents the methodology for applying the Resilience Self-Assessment Tool (Scorecard) - Preliminary and Detailed level, the Public Health System Resilience SelfAssessment Tool – Adding, and the Quick Risk Estimative Tool (QRE), resources offered by the Initiative to identify and analyze disaster risks. Finally, it offers procedures for analyzing the results of the Self-Assessment Tools for the development of the Local Resilience Plan, according to the goal (e) Sendai Framework (UNDRR, 2015). It also encourages authorities to use indicators to measure progress. The first edition of the course, free and online, was intended mainly for military firefighters, public servants working in the Municipal Coordination of Civil Defense, and agents in the areas of planning, environment, and health, enabling the training of key actors in the analysis of the results of the Tools. There was the structuring of a virtual learning environment for the first edition, with video classes, academic activities, weekly readings, and complementary materials. Synchronous activities were also conducted through virtual meetings, where doubts were discussed, and the tools were used in working groups. It is noteworthy that the virtual meetings were a significant differential since they mobilized the students to apply tools in partnership with different sectors, providing a broad and practical vision for future application in their local government. Therefore, it was evidenced the importance of this application of materials in a multisectoral way for a broad understanding of the theme and future creation of strategies for disaster resilience. According to the material available, the students at the end of the first edition, the students developed part of a Local Resilience Plan. Also, an event was held to close the course and present good practices. On another occasion, UFJF established the first version in MOOC (Massive Open Online Course) format, thus implying a broader audience. The second edition had the video lessons recorded and academic activities enabling autonomy to the students concerning the learning process. Both editions demonstrated the lack of specific courses on the subject and culminated in the organization of the second edition in the first half of 2022 and the in-company specialization for managers of 2 municipalities to apply the tools and generate the local Resilience plan. The specialization “Disaster Resilient Cities” is scheduled to start in 2023.

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Development “Making Cities Resilient - MCR2030” Course The course aimed to train Brazilian public agents and develop skills, skills, and attitudes related to disaster risk management. Finally, students were expected to be able to apply self-assessment tools and develop the Local Resilience Plan. This course was conducted in the distance modality, via the Internet, using the Moodle platform, made available by UFJF, both for the presentation of the content and compliance and management of evaluation activities. For the production of didactic material, it was necessary to integrate a multidisciplinary team from UFJF. Eight professors from the Faculty of Engineering, Geography, and Medicine and 17 students of the Civil Engineering course at UFJF participated, in addition to 1 consultant from UNDRR (Santos 2021). In addition, the course was attended by tutors to clarify doubts related to the study. Thus, the team participated in training and in-depth studies to elaborate and select materials and tools for the development of the course. In the course layout, there was a need to divide it into five distinct modules. Each module had video classes, evaluative activities, and complementary materials. To be considered a finalist and issue a certificate, it was necessary to obtain 80% in the set of mandatory activities, attend at least 75% of synchronous meetings and respond to the final survey of the course. It is noteworthy that the development of teaching materials began with the compilation of research and preparation in slide shows. Then, the material was reviewed and technically evaluated by the entire team and the recording of the video classes. Complementary materials were also made available that helped the study taker in a more comprehensive understanding of the modules. The main aspects considered in the elaboration of these contents were: ambiance with the online platform, the logical-formal structure of texts, objectivity, adequacy in real situations, and practical examples. That said, it shows the importance of consonance with the student’s cognitive development and his needs while integrating, in an accessible way, the theory and methodology of large global agendas. It is noteworthy that the evaluation activities are included within the education project. Each course module was created, addressing the theme to reinforce the essential and applicable aspects. Students were also invited to deliver theoretical papers that they should study and apply a principle of the Preliminary Self-Assessment Tool and set up strategies for building resilience based on the scores obtained. After the correction, feedback was made available to the student to provide mechanisms for filling gaps in the teaching-learning process. In addition, the course format had synchronous discussions involving public managers in the exchange of good practices, promoting dialogue between the various profiles and local actors to simulate the application of the tools studied. For the launch of the course and dissemination of registrations, disclosures were made on social media and online media and triggered emails to previously registered managers. After the disclosure, there were 192 interested parties. However, for the execution of the course, there was an operational limit regarding the availability of vacancies. Thus, the links

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with the public agency and the date of registration were considered to select candidates. The vacancies were divided by different sectors of activity to promote the better performance of practical activities and contemplate a set of multisectoral students simulating the day-to-day of the city halls. The First Edition of “Making Cities Resilient - MCR2030” had 72 registered, with representatives from 47 Brazilian municipalities, one in Argentina, and one municipality in the Dominican Republic. Each municipality had at least one student with ties to the local government. Figure 3 represents the students enrolled in the course, demonstrating that although there were efforts of UFJF to regionalize the course to a predominantly Brazilian audience. There was interest from Latin American countries: Argentina and the Dominican Republic, which reveals the demand of those interested in the offer of events and training accessible in the theme and adherent to the Initiative in the locality. Students and UFJF staff met through the Google Meet Platform during synchronous activities to conduct discussions and elucidate possible doubts. After a brief resumption of the contents, the students were divided into workgroups for practical Tools application.

Figure 3. Representation of the location of the students enrolled in Brazil, Argentina, and the Dominican Republic.

The UFJF team followed the discussions that guided the students to understand better and complete the information. After the established time, everyone resumed the main room to present the results and lessons learned. After the evaluation activities, the students were invited to carry out the completion of the course research. The objective was to gather indicators for performance analysis and learning. The research consisted of 18 students’ perceptions questions and 12 questions about the knowledge before and after the course. It also had an open field for sending feedback considering each student’s individual experience.

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Through Figure 4, it is notelike that 53.19% of the graduates did not have in-depth knowledge about the MCR2030 Initiative before the course. More than half of the students had their first contact with technical materials. They adapted to their reality about large global agendas in the course, thus reflecting the need for the coverage of the course at the local level.

Figure 4. Level of knowledge about the MCR2030 Initiative before the course.

On the other hand, after presenting the contents and carrying out the activities of technical evaluations, 74.47% of the graduates declared themselves satisfied with the knowledge acquired about the MCR2030 Initiative, according to Figure 5. Given the low percentage of knowledge about the Initiative before the course, the impact of the materials arranged in the face of the participation of the cities is demonstrated. In addition, it is noteworthy that seven municipalities were already enrolled in the Initiative, and three signed up soon after the course (Santos 2021). Thus, it is remarkable that it was possible to offer an inclusive technical capacity and establish links that enable future participation in the Initiative and commitment to reducing the risk of disasters and resilience.

Figure 5. Level of knowledge about the MCR2030 Initiative after the course.

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Thus, one of the course’s main objectives is evidenced: the elaboration of the Local Resilience Plan. In the research about the knowledge acquired with the course for structuring the Plan, 70.22% answered that they could apply the knowledge, as shown in Figure 6. Among the students, at least one local government student participated in the following situations: seven municipalities already enrolled in the Initiative, three municipalities that registered soon after the course, and 32 municipalities that were not yet enrolled (Santos 2021). Thus, it is remarkable that it was possible to offer an inclusive technical capacity and establish links that enable future participation in the Initiative and commitment to reducing the risk of disasters and resilience.

Figure 6. Level of knowledge for the preparation of the Local Resilience Plan.

In the end, there were 43 senior students, representing a course completion rate of 59.72%. It is noteworthy that all graduates worked in public power, either as servants or in commissioned positions. Also, 46.51% of the graduates are members of the Military Fire Department of Minas Gerais, reinforcing the partnership established with the institution. The impacts of the first edition demonstrate that training aimed at local governments within the framework of the significant global agendas plays a decisive role in the participation of strategic programs that contribute to their development.

“Making Cities Resilient - MCR2030” Course, MOOC Version The Second Edition of “Making Cities Resilient - MCR2030”, the first in the MOOC version, was held in the distance modality. However, using the Moodle platform, provided by the Center for Distance Education (CEAD/UFJF). The course was restructured to serve the students in the Massive Online Open Courses (MOOC) version to enable broad access to content and materials for local managers worldwide.

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In the MOOC format, the participant is responsible for their learning, developing it autonomously and self-motivationally. They should be attentive to the organization and time management, defining their studies’ pace. The format adopted reduced the human resources released for its realization enabling the training of more local managers. Also, due to the flexibility of study schedules, managers could incorporate activities more easily into their agendas. However, it is noteworthy that in the MOOC version, no practical activities and synchronous meetings were developed as in the first edition, reducing the interaction between students and the technical team (Santos 2022). Thus, the managers did not envision the practical application of the tool and did not receive feedback and exchanges with other professionals as in the first edition. It was necessary to integrate a multidisciplinary team of two professors from the Faculty of Engineering and six students of the Civil Engineering course of UFJF, two technical support specialists, and 1 UNDRR consultant (Santos 2021) to restructure the course didactic material. The course had tutors answering questions received on the platform and via e-mail. The organization remained in five modules addressing the same contents regarding the contents taught. In addition to the technical structuring to insert the contents in the new platform, a didactic review of the materials was carried out, and an expansion of the database of evaluative questions. It was necessary to obtain 70% in the set of mandatory activities and respond to the final survey of the course to receive the certificate of completion. The dissemination of the new edition and the opening of registrations had the sharing on social media. It triggered e-mails to managers interested in the previous version but not enrolled in the course.

Figure 7. Representation of the location of the students enrolled in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Colombia, Portugal, and Namibia.

The first MOOC version allowed the number of unlimited self-registration and had no training requirements or area of activity. Thus, it allowed access to other sectors of society, such as private entities and civil society.

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The Second Edition of “Making Cities Resilient - MCR2030” had 599 enrollments, with entries from 296 Brazilian municipalities and 24 foreign cities distributed in 6 countries, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Portugal, and Namibia (Santos 2022). Remarkably, there was an international scope in the MOOC version of the course, as shown in Figure 7. due to the formatting character of the course, with the availability of material on an online platform and adaptable to the routine of the students. Throughout the weeks, the UFJF team followed the accesses of the students and communicated through e-mail to the students who did not access the platform frequently about the importance of the course and the deadlines for its realization. Concerning the assertiveness of the course, the Course Research implemented for the students to respond to the expectations and scope of the materials is incorporated. The second edition also had a Course Survey to gather indicators for performance analysis and learning of the students and enable the comparison between the editions.

Figure 8. Knowledge level about the MCR2030 Initiative before the course.

In addition to an open field for feedback insertions, there were eight questions about the profile of the students, 11 questions about the activities and perceptions of the students about the content, and 12 questions about the knowledge before and after the course. Regarding the information on the knowledge of the MCR2030 Initiative before the course, 75.50% did not have an in-depth knowledge of the MCR2030 Initiative (Figure 8). That is, three quarters had no contact with technical and adapted materials, again emphasizing the importance of the scope of the course at the local level. After the course, 73.15% of the graduates answered that they were able to apply the knowledge about the MCR2030 Initiative, according to Figure 9. Again, there was a significant increase of the students with knowledge about the Initiative before the course, highlighting the impact of the materials arranged in the face of the participation of the cities.

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University Actions for Disaster Risk Reduction and Developing Urban Resilience

Figure 9. Knowledge level about the MCR2030 Initiative after the course.

Figure 10. Level of knowledge to prepare the Local Resilience Plan.

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On the knowledge needed to prepare the Local Resilience Plan, 65.77% of the students declare that they can apply the contents after the course (Figure 10). In the end, there were 298 senior students, representing a course completion rate of 49.75%. Even with the efforts undertaken in the e-mail shootings to remind students of the deadlines, there was a reduction in the course completion rate compared to the first edition. It is noteworthy that 83.56% of the graduates of the second edition work in the public power, indicating a great chance of applying the contents in the construction of resilient cities. Due to the internal mobilization of the Military Fire Department of Minas Gerais, 145 members of the institution completed the course. This mobilization may have occurred because the period of activity of the course is understood between the high season of the Brazilian summer when municipal managers are carrying out disaster response and recovery actions. However, the absolute number of students completing the second edition was higher, meeting the initial expectations of the course restructuring for the MOOC version.

Productions The 2030 Agenda is part of “Leave no one behind”, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals – SDGs 4: Ensuring quality, inclusive and equitable education and promoting lifelong learning opportunities for all (ODSs 2022). In this perspective, UFJF developed to popularize knowledge and make accessible a Podcast in the Brazilian Portuguese language and Spanish of all content presented in the course (Santos 2021). The dissemination of the theme on podcast platforms allows the listener to have the autonomy to decide the best way to go through the learning process, democratizing access to technical information and disseminating among agents of the same niche the construction of resilient cities. Therefore, resources such as podcasts demonstrate the need for an integrated and alternative approach to collaborative and intersectoral planning. In the same context, disseminating materials and tools translated and adapted to Brazilian Portuguese proved essential for future training actions. Thus, UFJF carried out the development in a localized, integrated, adapted, and translated to the local context of materials arranged by UNDRR. The publication of the “Health emergency and disaster risk management framework”, a document with an integrated approach to managing risks and consequences of emergencies and disasters and building the resilience of health systems, communities, and countries (World Health Organization 2019), is highlighted. In addition, after the editions, technical reports were published, compiling the data and results of the courses. The reports can support replication in other universities, creating synergies for building more resilient cities. Finally, we highlight the UFJF team’s commitment to promoting the course’s contents in English, aiming at a possible expansion for everyone, considering the need to train managers from other locations.

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Future Opportunities UFJF and UNDRR have had a partnership since the “Making Cities Resilient: My City: My city is getting ready!” The campaign to join forces supporting local governments in dissected knowledge and capacity building to reduce disaster risks and urban resilience. In this sense, with the support of UNDRR, a work plan was prepared to develop actions with local governments in progress toward the goals established by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the 2030 Agenda through events and short courses, and specialization. Thus, they were inserted within the Specialization Course in Public Management in Protection and Civil Defense, disciplines that address resilient cities within the Brazilian context of the National Policy of Protection and Civil Defense, associating UNDRR tools for the elaboration of the Local Resilience Plan. Thus, UFJF and UNDRR have as a strategy to implement in 2023 the Specialization Course “Disaster Resilient Cities”. The course will address the incorporation of resilience in the management and planning of Brazilian cities, the instrumentalization of public agents in the active action in the face of the adoption of Resilience Plans and Disaster Risk Reduction, and the development of prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and reconstruction strategies in the search for a resilient community to reduce the risk of disasters, implementation of the tools made available in the MCR2030 Initiative. The specialization has been approved and is in the process of structuring. For the course to have an integrated approach to current disaster risk trends in the local and international scenario, UNDRR has established a capacity building of the Specialization faculty. A second edition of the course (in MOOC format) was also established in the work plan, aiming at training more public managers in the use of the Tools and the elaboration of Local Resilience Plans. The edition will be the last activity before specialization. It is noteworthy that during practical activities, the lack or inconsistency of technical information based on accurate data was observed for the application of self-assessment tools. Consequently, there was a risk assessment of a decrease or an increase in institutional capacities in the practical activities of the tools. Thus, given the need to guide managers in accurately measuring risks and seeking a multihazard approach, the team seeks to structure material for the specialization course on resilience indicators based on International Organization for Standardization - ISO 37123.

Conclusion Remarkably, the actions developed by UFJF over ten years within the theme of disaster risk reduction and urban resilience have contributed enormously to the democratization of access to technical information from large global agendas at the local level. Since 2020, UFJF has been developing actions adhering to the Campaign and the Making Cities Resilient Initiative, aiming at elaborating the Local Resilience Plan through the application of the Initiative’s tools and integration with the community. Therefore, we highlight the institutional partnerships carried out, primarily between the Military Fire Department of Minas Gerais and UFJF, for the need for support for technical

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training of its servers and also, between UNDRR and UFJF, for the feasibility of technical support and the offer of current tools. It is also remarkable the importance of integrating the academy into the theme. It strengthens the actions of disaster risk reduction and urban resilience and forms future professionals more prepared to work in the area with a strategic and global vision. In addition, the relevance of integration between various community sectors to promote local and specific actions for the demands aimed at reducing the risk of disasters and urban resilience is demonstrated. Its capacity-building actions demonstrate the core of encouraging other cities to apply the tools and enroll in MCR2030, boosting other universities in developing resilient local and regional capacity.

References Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). (2020). The human cost of disasters: an overview of the last 20 years (2000-2019). United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. https://www.undrr.org/publication/human-cost-disasters-overview-last-20-years-2000-2019. https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_63575sendaiframeworkportunofficialf%5B1%5D.pdf. IBGE-Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. (2017). Pesquisa de Informações Básicas Municipais: Perfil dos municípios brasileiros. Rio de Janeiro. [Survey of Basic Municipal Information: Profile of Brazilian municipalities. Rio de Janeiro]. ISBN 978-85-240-4462-5. https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/visual izacao/livros/liv101595.pdf. Iniciativa Making Cities Resilient (MCR2030). (2022). Who we are. Accessed March 17. https://mcr2 030.undrr.org/who-we-are. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2021). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg2/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_TechnicalSummary.pdf. Oliveira, Gabriela. Santos, Gislaine dos. Souza, Jordan. Moreira, Raphaella. (2020). “A Construção de Cidades Resilientes por meio da Gestão Integrada de Riscos: uma Cooperação entre Universidade e Órgãos Públicos.” Paper presented at Seminário Internacional de Investigação em Urbanismo, São Paulo and Lisboa, [“Building Resilient Cities through Integrated Risk Management: A Cooperation between University and Public Bodies.” Paper presented at the International Seminar on Research in Urbanism, São Paulo and Lisbon], June 15-26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5821/SIIU.9962. Planalto. (2012). “LEI N° 12.608, DE 10 DE ABRIL DE 2012 [LAW No. 12,608, OF APRIL 10, 2012].” Accessed March 24. http://www.planalto.gov. br/ccivil_03/_ato2011-2014/2012/lei/l12608.htm. Planalto. (2021). “DECRETO N° 10.692, DE 3 DE MAIO DE 2021 [DECREE No. 10.692, OF MAY 3, 2021].” Accessed March 25. http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2019-2022/2021/decreto/D10692.htm. Santos, Gislaine. (2021). Construindo Cidades Resilientes [Building Resilient Cities]. São Paulo: Câmara Brasileira do Livro. Accessed March 30. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LQ3W8-b10_mRtdey8M7G ory_7biKBsTB/view. Santos, Gislaine. (2022). Relatório de avaliação do curso de extensão construindo cidades resilientes MCR2030 [Evaluation report of the extension course building resilient cities - MCR2030]. São Paulo: Câmara Brasileira do Livro. Accessed March 30. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1x-EcPANoS7Wqu _AiEg45uhZIK4_LtsnZ/view. Souza, Jordan. (2018). Mapeamento de áreas de risco com o aplicativo Álea [Mapping risk areas with the Álea application]. Juiz de Fora: Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Accessed March 30. https://www.ufjf.br/sistemaalea/files/2019/01/GUIA_%c3%81lea_2019_Digital-Atualizado-2021.pdf. Sustainable Development Goals (ODS). (2022). “Indicadores Brasileiros para os Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável. [Brazilian Indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals].” Accessed March 20. https://odsbrasil.gov.br/.

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Times Higher Education. (2021). “Latin America University Rankings 2021 digital edition.” Accessed March 18. https://www.timeshighereducation.com/digital-editions/latin-america-university-rankings-2021-digit al-edition. UNDRR, United Nations Office For Disaster Risk Reduction. (2015). “Marco de Sendai para a Redução do Risco de Desastres 2015- 2030 [Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030].” Accessed March 30. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). (2015). “Desarrollando Ciudades Resilientes: ¡Mi ciudad se está preparando! Sobre a Campanha [Developing Resilient Cities: My city is getting ready! About Campanha].” Accessed March 18. https://www.eird.org/camp-10-15/port/sobre-a-campanha.html. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). (2022). “Making Cities Resilient (MCR2030).” Accessed March 18. https://mcr2030.undrr.org/. Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF). (2022). “Competências [Skills].” Accessed March 30. https://www2.ufjf.br/ufjf/acesso-a-informacao/institucional-ufjf/competencias/. Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC). Centro de Estudos e Pesquisas em Engenharia e Defesa Civil– (Ceped/UFSC). (2020). “Atlas Digital de Desastres no Brasil”. Accessed April 8. http://www.atlas. ceped. ufsc.br. World Health Organization. (2019). “Health emergency and disaster risk management framework.” Accessed March 24. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/326106?locale-attribute=pt&filter_relational_operato r_0=equals&order=desc&filter_0=Health%20Emergency%20and%20Disaster%20Risk%20Managemen t%20Framework&scope=/&sort_by=score&query=Health%20Emergency%20and%20Disaster%20Risk %20Management%20Framework&rpp=10&filtertype_0=title&search-result=true.

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Chapter 5

Earthquake Early Warning Systems: A Review with Applications in Greece Charilaos A. Maniatakis1,2,3, Athanasia E. Zacharenaki1,4, Christos Moraitis2 and Georgios E. Stavroulakis5,2,* 1 School

of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece Hellenic University, Thessaloniki, Greece 3 Municipal Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Hersonissos Municipality, Crete, Greece 4 Municipal Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Minoa Pediada, Crete, Greece 5 School of Production Engineering and Management, Technical University of Crete, Greece

2 International

Abstract Catastrophic earthquakes have always been a major threat affecting the world’s population and economy with the most disastrous consequences in urban areas. In order to tackle this phenomenon, scientists from the mid-19th century showed interest in finding ways to inform about a forthcoming earthquake event but only after 1960 did it find application with the evolution of technology. As a result of this effort came the development of the Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) as a new method for seismic risk mitigation. This system has evolved to detect earthquake parameters such as hypocenter, magnitude and time while disseminating alarm signals to the sites affected by the earthquake for societies to take the necessary action. Its function is based on the fact that information travels faster than seismic waves and that S-waves travel faster than P-waves in an earthquake signal. Nowadays, EEWS are operational in several countries including Mexico and Japan, while action has been taken to be implemented in more countries. EEWS are becoming a significant tool for the reduction of seismic risk, despite its current restrictions, and to help prevent loss of human lives and resources, reducing this way the economic loss. In this paper EEWS are discussed and their application in Greece is presented to give an insight to state-of-the-art methodology. Design concepts, cost of operation and reliability limitations are examined while a possible improvement of their efficiency with the use of artificial intelligence and neural networks is briefly discussed.

Keywords: Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), seismic waves, neural networks, state-of-the-art *

Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected].

In: The Challenges of Disaster Planning, Management, and Resilience Editor: Michail Chalaris ISBN: 979-8-88697-229-0 © 2023 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

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Introduction Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are real-time seismic monitoring infrastructures that are able to provide rapid warning of the potential adverse effects of an impending earthquake (Zollo et al., 2014). The idea of using early warning of earthquakes was examined for the first time by J.D. Cooper in November of 1868. J.D. Cooper suggested the installation of seismic sensors near Hollister, California. These sensors sent an electric signal through a San Francisco telegraph when an earthquake was detected. This idea was implemented only in 1960 when the Japanese National Railway Authority established a system of timely warning to prevent derailment of high-speed trains (Nakamura and Saita, 2007). Today, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are used in Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and in California while many other EEWS are under arrangement and testing in other parts of the world such as Italy, Algeria, New Zealand and Israel (Zollo et al., 2014). The application of EEWS may help reduce the damage and loss in human lives firstly by activating automated safety measures in critical systems such as nuclear power plants and gas pipeline networks (Gasparini et al., 2007). Secondly, by changing road signs to prevent vehicles from entering vulnerable structures such as bridges and tunnels along with decelerating highspeed trains in order to avoid derailments. Also, stopping the elevators on the nearest floor and automatically opening doors may lead to avoiding injuries. Likewise, informing the public to implement the “drop, cover and hold on” triptych and, if there is enough time, evacuating dangerous buildings or moving to safer places such as schools, public buildings, workplaces (Cremen and Galasso, 2020). Finally, EEWS helps in detecting aftershocks, which always occur after a major earthquake. Aftershocks are a source of significant problems, not only because they disrupt an already injured population, but because they restrict rescue operations and cause additional damage to the weakened building environment. The time of warning may help to prevent the loss of human lives and resources in various aspects of the society (Strauss and Allen, 2016). In addition, EEWS can be of great value in reducing damage and losses due to secondary events caused such as landslides, tsunamis, fires and industrial accidents (Gasparini et al., 2007). In this work, a concise state-of-the-art review is presented regarding the historical evolution of EEW systems, their basic operating principles, their basic advantages and disadvantages while emphasis is given in the installed systems in Greece.

Basic Operating Principles EEWS are based on the fact that information travels faster than seismic (mechanically) waves and the largest part of earthquake energy is transferred through S-waves which arrive after the faster and of smaller width, P-waves (Cremen and Galasso, 2020). Early warning involves four main steps: As a first step the detection of the event and its position’s assessment is considered. Secondly, the size of the event is assessed. Thirdly, the movement of the ground in different distances is assessed and, lastly, the Early Warning is activated. Alerts are then disseminated to interested parties/individuals through various technological means, such as radio, television, e-mails, websites, SMS messages and smartphone applications (Cremen and Galasso, 2020).

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Simplified source-to-site and source-to-station travel times may be computed by simplified formulae as follows:

TT x , y =

d hypox , y vavg

where x is the source, y is the target site or station of interest, d hypox , y is the hypocentral distance between x and y, and vavg is the average P- or S- wave velocity at the location of the target site. The lead-time (in seconds) for target site j due to an event at a given seismic source a, may be calculated as follows:

LTj = TT as, j − TT ap, st3 − 4 s

p

where TTa , j is the S-wave arrival time at j, and TTa ,st3 is the P-wave arrival time at the third closest station to the source. The minimum number of stations required for the triggering according to many popular regional EEW algorithms is three stations in order to report reliable source parameter estimates. According to the procedure proposed by Cremen and Galasso (2020) a four-second interval is assumed to capture both data telemetry delays and the P-wave window required by an EEW algorithm to compute location/magnitude estimates, in line with previous studies (Cremen and Galasso, 2020). EEWS can be conceptually classified as regional or on-site/site-specific (Velasquez et al., 2020). Regional systems consist of a network of seismic sensors located within the expected focal area or area of high seismicity in order to assess the location and magnitude of the earthquake as well as to predict ground motion in infrastructure of interest that is located far away (Satriano et al., 2011). On-site systems consist of a limited set of seismic stations located near specific target sites/infrastructures of interest and make a direct assessment of the parameters of the source and the movement of the soil based on the characteristics of the data recorded in the system. Hybrid systems combine the capabilities of regional and on-site systems, integrating source parameter estimates from a regional network with ground-based ground motion estimates (Velazquez et al., 2020; Zollo et al., 2014). Regional systems provide more accurate estimates of earthquake source parameters, but on-site systems lead to faster warning times for nearsource targets (Kanamori, 2005). In Figure 1 the basic flow diagram of an Earthquake Early Warning System is shown. While the area affected by a large earthquake can be extended, most of the damage caused will be usually observed at relatively short epicentral distances and close to the ruptured fault. Therefore, providing an initial warning within a few seconds is the most critical goal for any EEWS, so that alerts can be delivered as close as possible to the ruptured area (called blind zone), where they are expected to accumulate. After this initial warning, there is time to provide better information or warn a larger area for larger earthquakes, in the seconds that follow (Allen and Melgar, 2019).

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Figure 1. Flow diagram of EEWS (based on: Ammon et al., 2021).

Evolution of EEW Systems Cremen and Galasso (2020) discuss the various algorithms that assist the realization of earthquake early warning systems providing information about the uncertainty involved in each step. In recent years the need for a more advanced EEW decision making system that will take into account end-user multiple criteria such as repair time, cost and injuries has risen. This has led to the use of Performance based earthquake engineering, PBEE, in end-user oriented EEW systems. EEW systems should trigger alerts interpreted from a certain end-user, so that specific actions should be taken to mitigate the impact of the event. This methodology evaluates a group of alternative actions ({Ak}) for seismic structural retrofitting, based on a set of criteria ({Ij}) that are weighted ({wj}) in importance according to end-user preferences. The current procedure of PBEE is dollar-loss-based and will be improved if the above preferences are considered. The following integral is given as an example of such an approach and could address a school where potential end-users are children, their parents, the headteacher and local public officials.

E AK ( I jAk | d ) =

  i

Ak j

f

Ak

(i jAk | dm) f (dm | im) f (im | d )dI jAk dDMdIM

I jAk DM IM

where

E Ak ( I jAk | d )

is the expected value of the jth indicator for action Ak and the seismic measurements at a given time,

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f ( a | b)

dm im f (dm | im )

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is the conditional probability density function of a given b, is the damage state of the school, is the considered intensity measure, is the fragility curve of the building (a more advanced componentlevel fragility modeling will also require consideration of an intermediate engineering demand parameter),

f

Ak

(i jAi | dm)

is derived from an action specific damage-to-loss model, where losses and consequences are broadly suggested to include injuries and downtime.

It should be pointed out that models for f

A1

(i jA1 | dm) (i.e., when the EEW alarm is

triggered) are related to a certain case and can be obtained from consultations with stakeholders or expert engineering judgment for more practical applications.

Limitations and Challenges In recent years, the numerous and significant technical improvements in EEWS are impressive. However, providing effective warning within seconds proves to be more difficult in practice than expected. In addition, severe practical and technical limitations of these systems reduce the range of possible actions that will significantly mitigate earthquake losses (Wald, 2020). The purpose of an earthquake early warning system is to provide advance warning that the expected ground movement at site of the user will exceed the level that could lead to damage, so that humans and automated systems can act to prevent this possible damage. But we must assume that the ability to predict the expected movement, even if the source of the earthquake is known, is limited. Due to many methods of measuring ground motion, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct warnings, that is, warnings that accurately estimate that the ground movement will be above a predetermined fault limit, are not expected to be the most common system result even when the magnitude and location of the earthquake is accurately identified. Rarely, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false signal because ground movement turns out to be significantly less than expected by the system and more often, users will experience no alerts, but the user will experience potentially harmful terrain. Despite these limitations, earthquake early warning systems can significantly reduce earthquake losses for users who can tolerate false alarms and who choose to receive warnings for expected ground motions much lower than the level that could cause damage. Even though this results in many false alarms such as unnecessary warnings about earthquakes that do not cause damage, it minimizes the number of warnings that are not carried out and produces an overall optimization of performance (Minson et al., 2019). Another important issue in recognizing the possibilities and limitations of EEWS is to understand the importance of possible warning times. System inactivity is commonly referred to as alert time and is essentially the time it takes the system to detect and recognize a seismic signal and to estimate the intensity of the vibration elsewhere. Therefore, the alarm time is the

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time between the onset of an earthquake and the issuance of a warning by the system (Minsonet al., 2018). Correspondingly, the warning time is the number of seconds from the issuance of this warning to the theoretical arrival of the S-waves at any given location (Kamigaichi et al., 2009). The warning time is spatially variable and can also be negative in the area very close to the fault caused by the earthquake. This area is called the blind zone and due to its proximity to the epicenter of the earthquake the S waves arrive before the system can issue a warning. Essentially, the areas that will be heavily damaged tend to be the ones that are most difficult to warn about because they are usually near the epicenter, the so-called near fault area, where seismic waves arrive first and are unlikely to receive a warning. Within the near-fault area of the earthquake, significant phenomena related to the propagation of seismic waves take place that differentiate the strong ground motion and the anticipated damage (Spyrakos et al., 2008; Maniatakis et al., 2008; Maniatakis and Spyrakos, 2012; Maniatakis, 2015). This near-fault area practically coincides with the blind-zone of the alerts. Further research is needed to provide timely warnings within this area. Conversely, areas farther away from the focus may receive longer warning times, but at these points the warnings may be less important because the vibration is weaker (Meier et al., 2020). The estimation of actual warning times should take into account the inherent magnitude delay which is significantly greater for large earthquakes (Minson et al., 2018) as well as communication delays, which further reduce the warning time. In addition, for human reactions, it should also be borne in mind that the time it takes to recognize, interpret and respond to the warning message and to take the recommended actions, such as “drop, cover and hold on” as well as other expected reactions consist of some valuable seconds. If one considers only electronically automated uses, the warning time, assuming there is zero communication delay, is a reasonable period to consider, depending on the activation time of such automated systems. While some automatic systems can be protected almost instantaneously, such as the computer hard drives that may be instantly disconnected, many mechanical systems take several to many seconds to activate, such as moving elevators that have to reach the next floor to open the doors and trains that require a considerable amount of time to slow down (Wald, 2020). The effectiveness of EEWS, depending on the warning time, also depends on the tectonic sources of earthquakes and the different types of earthquakes that occur. In the case of remote, offshore earthquakes from deep subsidence zones, the longest warning time and therefore the best results are provided, while in the case of shallow crustal earthquakes from faults much closer to humans and infrastructure, the shortest warning time is provided, usually in the affected area to be completely enclosed within the blind zone. Briefly, the following points could be made about the challenges and limitations of EEWS (Wald, 2020): •

•

Reference to communication and response delays and how practically they affect the expected warning times. Current restrictions on seismic networks and communications result in a blind zone within a distance of approximately equal to 25 km from the epicenter for which warnings are not possible. Separation between earthquakes from subduction zones, intraplate and crustal earthquakes in the delimitation of expectations for the warning time.

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• •

•

67

Educate users that if they feel vibration, they should take appropriate action. They may or may not receive timely confirmation from EEWS to act. Awareness that EEWS is not the only and possibly not even the best strategy to reduce earthquake losses. Preparedness, training to take appropriate action and more standardized risk mitigation efforts are also essential (well engineered structures and infrastructure following the provisions of seismic codes, application of retrofit techniques when needed). Recognize that users need to be tolerant of errors as EEWS evolves and improves over time and that false warnings or incidents are expected to be issued.

Another factor of concern regarding the operation of such systems is a potential high construction and operating cost. According to the investigation of Strauss and Allen (2016) if, indicatively: three human lives are saved, two semiconductor plants are warned in time and a BART train slows down, the non-fatal injuries are reduced by 1% and 0.25% is the reduction of the damage caused by fire associated with natural gas. This would save enough money to cover the cost of running a year on a public warning system for the entire West Coast of the United States.

Android Applications Seismology is a science based on observation and has always been limited by the possibility of developing detection networks to study seismic processes. The MyShake Project aims to form a combination between the need of the seismological research community to collect data on all forms of research and the need for society to better mitigate the effects of earthquakes. MyShake achieves this goal by turning personal smartphones into sensors that collect seismic data to provide the user with information about an earthquake before, during and after the event, including early warning. The development and implementation of seismic early warning systems has accelerated with great advances in communication technologies, but has been limited mainly to areas with seismic networks. Sensor technology is becoming more and more widespread, and the concept of the Internet of Things describes a world where billions of devices that “feel” will share real-time data around the world (Allen et al., 2019). The MyShake smartphone app turns personal phones into seismic sensors. Users must first download the free app from the Google Play store or Apple iTunes store. Once installed on a phone, the application is registered to the MyShake servers running in the Cloud and the phone is converted into a sensor that is part of the global MyShake seismic network (Allen et al., 2019). The key technology that makes the MyShake seismic network feasible is an artificial neural network (ANN) integrated into the application that distinguishes seismic ground movements from everyday movements (Kong et al., 2016). While the MyShake network is a global seismic network that records data for a variety of purposes, early earthquake warning has always been a primary motivation and target for the network. The MyShake platform provides a business framework for providing telephone earthquake alerts that can result from detection by smart phone sensors or the use of traditional regional seismic networks. More than 300,000 people around the world have downloaded the MyShake app, by 2019, and are participating in this scientific program to detect earthquakes

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and provide seismic waveforms for research. These features have shown that earthquakes can be detected and estimated at 5 to 7 seconds from the start time of the event, and alerts can be delivered to smartphones in 1 to 5 seconds (Allen et al., 2019). The initial development of MyShake was successful and has demonstrated the ability to build a seismic network based on smartphones for earthquake detection and early warning worldwide (Kong et al., 2019).

Neural Networks The main disadvantage of invalid prediction of the severity of an impending earthquake can be solved by timely prediction of structural behavior with the use of artificial intelligence and neural networks in order to quickly correlate the available measurements with quantities of interest, like the interstory drift as proposed by Iaccarino et al. (2021). In fact neural networks have been used to solve difficult inverse and identification problems, provided that experimentally measured or computer generated examples (labeled data) can be provided for their training (Stavroulakis, 2001; Stavroulakis et al., 2004; Protopapadakis et al., 2016). Recent efforts in this direction involve the usage of the physical model of the continuum, within the wave is propagating, in order to enhance learning and avoid the usage of large amount of data (see the physics informed neural networks, e.g., in Raissi et al., 2019). Further information can be found in the recent literature, e.g., Mukherjee et al. (2021), Muradova et al. (2021). Also, Neural Networks have been used to predict the earthquake magnitude and its location weeks before occurrence by combining a classification algorithm based on machine learning and a mathematical optimization algorithm as Rafiei M.H. & Adeli H. (2017) have suggested. Last but not least, Bose et al. (2008) proposes a methodology where the inputs of the backpropagation neural networks are the P-wave arrival time differences on seismometers and the cumulative absolute velocity computed by integration of the ground acceleration over time obtained from accelerometers. Signal processing for the support of EEWS by using physical modeling and neural networks or other methods of artificial intelligence seems to be a promising methodology in order to enhance effectiveness and range of applicability.

State of Practice Earthquake early warning systems are in operation in the following countries: China, Romania, Chile, India and are tested to work in Greece, in Southern Italy, in the Iberian Peninsula, in Algeria, in Israel and in Canada.

State of Practice in Greece Greece is the country with the most intense seismic activity in Europe and ranges among the most seismically active regions on a global scale (Tsapanos and Burton, 1991). In the context of mitigating this severe seismic risk, ongoing efforts have already been made to utilize the technology of EEWS. Some major applications of EEW Systems in Greece include installation

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of EEWS in Revythousa Island, the Rio-Antirrio bridge of Patras and the AHEPA hospital in Thessaloniki. Revythousa Island is a liquified natural gas storage facility from which a pipeline operates to the distribution center of Athens. It is about 20 km from Athens and includes floating storage tanks, pipelines and related technology as it is the main gas supply infrastructure for the urban city of Athens. The project “Safeguarding Hydrocarbons Inside Earthquake Local Defense System (SHIELDS)” aimed to design a system to provide early earthquake warning for the facilities in Revythousa. This would be the first early warning system in Europe and for this reason it has been considered so important (Xu et al., 2003). Patra is the third largest city in Greece and the implementation of an early warning system is of great importance due to high risk seismicity and the presence of infrastructures such as the Rio-Antirio bridge. The existing research infrastructure, the seismological network and the seismological laboratory of the University of Patras, facilitate the implementation of the system. According to the seismic history of Patras, the city is mainly affected by earthquakes at short distances, i.e., from the Corinthian Gulf and the Peloponnese. However, the new highrise buildings and the Rio-Antirio bridge, given their large natural vibration periods, could also be affected by strong seismic events over longer distances such as, for example, the Ionian Sea and the Greek Arc. These are seismic sources of very strong and potentially catastrophic events and are located a few hundred kilometers from Patras. The distance is quite large and can leave a few tens of seconds of warning time, if there is a dense seismic network (Sokos et al., 2016). The implementation and evaluation of the system was carried out in the framework of the research project funded by the European Commission Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction (REAKT) by the seismological laboratory of the University of Patras. The necessary seismic data to the system were provided by the seismic network of the University of Patras with the addition of six new stations of strong ground motion that were also installed during REAKT with the seismic stations of the Unified Hellenic Seismological Network (EESD). The implementation of SeisComP3 (SC3) software (Hanka et al., 2010; Behr et al., 2016) with Virtual Seismologist (VS) software (Cua, 2005; Cua and Heaton, 2007; Cua et al., 2009) was selected for the initial assessment of the earthquake site. The University of Patras has been running the SC3 - VS software since May 2013 and the main goal was to evaluate the feasibility of implementing a regional earthquake warning system for the city of Patras and the Rio-Antirio bridge. In terms of overall performance, the system reported magnitudes that were very close to those officially reported by the Geodynamic Institute (GI-EAA) and the S-wave warning time was usually in the range of 10 seconds for events within 150-200 km. This short warning time is mainly due to the equipment and configuration of the network. Finally, although this project focuses on Patras and the RioAntiriobridge, the result is applicable to the whole country and highlights the perspective of early warning systems in Greece (Sokos et al., 2016). The eight-story building of AHEPA hospital, one of the largest hospitals in Greece, built in Thessaloniki in the 1970s, was selected as part of the same research project Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake RisK ReducTion (REAKT) as a testing ground for the development of techniques in structural monitoring and early warning system against earthquakes with the aim of (a) determining the actual structural condition and possible pathology of the building, (b) assessing the actual vulnerability of the building today and (c) integrating these vulnerability algorithms into newly developed early warning systems to assess the building's seismic vulnerability in real time during an impending seismic event. To achieve

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these goals the building has been equipped with permanent and temporary arrays of monitoring instruments in close collaboration of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (AUTH) with the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), Helmholtz Center in Potsdam. Noise measurements and strong ground motion data collected from temporary and permanent arrays are used for dynamic structural characterization and extraction of specific fragility curves for the building (Pitilakis et al., 2016). The data used by the system comes from: (a) The EUROSEISTEST network (Pitilakis et al., 2013) which is an array of 21 accelerometer stations, 6 in boreholes and 15 on the ground, operating since 1993. The communication components of its equipment network upgrades to ensure real-time continuous data flow; (b) SOSEWIN accelerometer arrays for building monitoring. The German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ) and the Research Unit for Soil Dynamics and Geotechnical Seismic Engineering of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (EMEGSM-AUTH) have recently installed several arrays of short-term SOSEWIN accelerometers for the purpose of monitoring targets. These sensors were used for the instrumental monitoring of the AHEPA hospital building. The data from these arrays are used to monitor the seismic response of buildings in real time, but are also integrated into the early warning system; (c) Three permanent broadband accelerometer stations operated by the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki within Thessaloniki; and (d) Five accelerometer stations of the Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens (GI-EAA) (Roumelioti et al., 2015). Building-specific fragility curves have been integrated into two independent approaches to early warning and rapid fault assessment systems tested in real time in Thessaloniki. The first approach involves the software PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo) (Satriano et al., 2011; Bracale et al., 2021), which covers both a regional and a local system. The second approach considers an additional local system algorithm, the SOSEWIN algorithm, which is applied to stations in the SOSEWIN permanent array. Both early warning systems are combined with building-specific fault assessment procedures to provide the expected level of damage to the monitored building following a strong earthquake. The future research orientation includes the increase of the density of the monitoring instruments in the building of the AHEPA hospital, the expansion of the regional network of strong ground movements with the addition of new stations in the city and the equipping with measuring instruments of more buildings, especially within the University of Thessaloniki (Pitilakis et al., 2016). As part of the Hellenic Plate Observing System (HELPOS) research project, the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens is implementing an early earthquake warning system in central Greece, which includes important active fault systems. The pilot application of the program uses the software PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo) (Satriano et al., 2011) in which data from seismological stations of the Unified Greek Seismological Network (EESD) are integrated, together with stations of the local network of the Laboratory. The PRESTo SysTem was recently implemented and tested on the Greek Ionian islands of Lefkada, Zakynthos and Kefalonia (Bracale et al., 2021).

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The National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) was established in Greece by law, in September 2010, and operates as a separate unit of the Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens (GI-EAA). The center operates on a 24-hour basis every day of the week (24/7) and aims to monitor the tsunami in Greece and the eastern Mediterranean, providing warning messages to the General Secretariat for Civil Protection. Since August 2012, the NTWC has been acting as a Candidate Tsunami Service Provider under the IOC / UNESCO Tsunami Warning System for the Northeast Atlantic, Mediterranean and Neighboring Seas. The operation of the NTWC is based on the national network of seismographs and tides of GIEAA and utilizes a variety of databases, algorithms and computing tools. Collaboration with leading research institutes, in the context of important EU-funded research projects, strengthens the center's scientific training. The training of the staff participating in the 24-hour operation of the center, is carried out continuously through tests and exercises, in order to maintain a high level of preparedness and response in case of emergency. Since August 2012, the NTWC as an operational center has issued 14 timely warning messages for possible tsunamis after strong earthquakes (Papadopoulos et al., 2016). The business center of the NTWC and the GI-EAA is connected to the Operational Center for Civil Protection and acts as an official notification body to the General Secretariat for Civil Protection in Greece, regarding earthquakes and tsunami events. Some of the recent developments in the NTWC include: the development of new tide measuring stations for tsunami monitoring purposes, the calculation of tsunami scenarios and the expansion used to improve warning and response times, earthquake magnitude estimation and testing of new tsunami and earthquake warning software components (e.g., Early-Est, SeisComP3 etc.) in Greece and the Eastern Mediterranean (Melis and Charalampakis, 2014). At the same time, the Near-field Tsunami Warning (NEARTOWARN) project (20122013) supported by the European Union – Directorate General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (EU-DG ECHO), contributed substantially to the development of new tools for timely nearby Mediterranean tsunami alert. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the Rhodes test field called the Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (REWSET). The system consists of three main subsystems: (1) A network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different locations on the island, one at the headquarters of the Civil Protection, another at the Fire Department and two at municipal buildings, (2) Two ultrasonic radar tide meters installed on the east coast area of the island which was chosen because the research on the historical seismic activity and the occurrence of tsunami shows that the most important, nearby tsunami sources are located off the coast, east of Rhodes, and (3) A geographic crisis management system, which is an Internet application based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) that incorporates a variety of thematic maps and other types of information. The seismic early warning devices are activated by strong (approximately a 6 magnitude or larger) earthquakes that occur at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing the possibility of immediate mobilization of the Civil Protection. Tide meters transmit sea level data, while during crisis periods the geographical crisis management system supports the

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decisions taken by the Civil Protection. The integration of the REWSET system into national and international systems is planned in the near future and although it is original, it could certainly be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond (Papadopoulos et al., 2014).

Conclusion Earthquake early warning systems are a relatively new strategy for reducing the impact of earthquakes on the population and infrastructure. They provide real-time information about earthquakes at the time of their occurrence, allowing individuals, businesses, communities, governments, and those at a distance to take timely action to reduce the risk of damage or loss before the earthquake reaches places of interest. At present, these systems appear to be more efficient in automated processes and less effective in individual actions. Also, the possibilities and their further application have not been explored yet but they seem to have a very good perspective. The wide spreading of social media and the high-performance networks with smart characteristics (Internet of Things) will enhance the importance of early warning systems and their integration within smart cities. Some critical issues that urge for further improvement are the following: a) the reduction of warning time, b) the improvement of seismic networks (density increase, instrument modernization),c) the improvement of telemetry, d) the evolution of existing and creation of new algorithms as well as combinations of them. Technological and computational evolutions on these scientific and technological fields leads to faster, more reliable and more accurate calculation of the parameters of an earthquake, faster communication of warnings to end users, reduction or elimination of the blind zone and avoidance of false or missed warnings.

References Allen RM, Melgar D. (2019). Earthquake early warning: Advances, scientific challenges, and societal needs. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 47; 2019. Ammon CJ, Velasco AA, Lay T, Wallace TC. (2021). Earthquake prediction, forecasting, & early warning. Foundations of Modern Global Seismology; 2021. Behr Y, Clinton JF, Cauzzi C, Hauksson E, Jónsdóttir K, Marius CG, Sokos E. (2016). The Virtual Seismologist in SeisComP3: A new implementation strategy for earthquake early warning algorithms. Seismological Research Letters; 2016. Bose M, Wenzel F, Erdik M. (2008) PreSEIS:a neural network-based approach to earthquake early warning for finite faults. Bull. Seismol Soc Am; 2008. Bracale M, Colombelli S, Elia L, Karakostas V, & Zollo A. (2021). Design, implementation and testing of a network-based Earthquake Early Warning System in Greece. Frontiers in Earth Science, 880. Cremen G, Galasso C. (2020). Earthquake early warning: Recent advances and perspectives. Earth-Science Reviews; 2020. Cua G, Fischer M, Heaton T,Wiemer S. (2009). Real-time performance of the Virtual Seismologist earthquake early warning algorithm in southern California. Seismological Research Letters; 2009. Cua G, Heaton T. (2007). The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method: A Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning. In: Earthquake Early Warning Systems. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. Cua GB. (2005). Creating the Virtual Seismologist: Developments in Ground Motion Characterization and Seismic Early Warning (Doctoral dissertation, California Institute of Technology); 2005.

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Gasparini P, Manfredi G, Zschau J. (2007). Earthquake Early Warning Systems. Berlin: Springer; 2007. Hanka W, Saul J, Weber B, Becker J, Harjadi P, Rudloff A, Clinton J. (2010). Real-time earthquake monitoring for tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean and beyond. Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences; 2010. Iaccarino AG, Gueguen P, Picozzi M, Ghimire S. (2021). Earthquake Early Warning System for Structural Drift Prediction Using Machine Learning and Linear Regressors. Front. Earth Sci; 2021. Kamigaichi O, Saito M, Doi K, Matsumori T, Tsukada SY, Takeda K, Watanabe Y. (2009). Earthquake early warning in Japan: Warning the general public and future prospects. Seismological Research Letters; 2009. Kanamori H. (2005) Real-time seismology and earthquake damage limitation, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary sciences; 2005. Kong Q, Allen RM, Schreier L and Kwon Y-W(2016). MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond, Sci. Adv. 2, no. 2; 2016. Kong Q, Inbal A, Allen RM, Lv Q, Puder A. (2019) Machine Learning Aspects of the MyShake Global Smartphone Seismic Network; 2019. Maniatakis, CA. (2015). Response of Structures under Near-Fault Seismic Excitations. PhD Dissertation, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens; 2015. Maniatakis CA, & Spyrakos CC. (2012). A new methodology to determine elastic displacement spectra in the near-fault region. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 35, 41-58. Maniatakis CA, Taflampas IM, & Spyrakos CC. (2008). Identification of near-fault earthquake record characteristics. In The 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering; 2008. Meier MA, Kodera Y, Böse M, Chung A, Hoshiba M, Cochran E, Heaton T. (2020). How Often Can Earthquake Early Warning Systems Alert Sites With High‐Intensity Ground Motion? Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth; 2020. Melis NS, Charalampakis M. (2014). The hellenic national tsunami warning centre (HL-NTWC): Recent updates and future developments, Geophysical Research Abstracts; 2014. Minson SE, Baltay AS, Cochran ES, Hanks TC, Page MT, McBride SK, Meier MA. (2019). The limits of earthquake early warning accuracy and best alerting strategy. Scientific Reports; 2019. Minson SE, Meier MA, Baltay AS, Hanks TC, Cochran ES. (2018). The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates. Science Advances; 2018. Moraitis C. (2021). Earthquake Early Warning System: State of the practice, MSc Thesis. International Hellenic University & Fire Brigade of Greece Interdisciplinary Postgraduate Program “Analysis and Management of Anthropogenic and Natural Disasters”; 2021. Mukherjee T, Singh C, Biswas PK. (2021). A Novel Approach for Earthquake Early Warning System Design using Deep Learning Techniques; 2021. Muradova AD, Stavroulakis GE. (2021). Physics-informed neural networks for elastic plate problems with bending and Winkler-type contact effects. Journal of the Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics; 2021. Nakamura Y, Saita J. (2007). UrEDAS, the earthquake warning system: Today and tomorrow. In Earthquake Early Warning Systems, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg; 2007. Papadopoulos G, Argyris I, Aggelou S, Karastathis V. (2014). REWSET: A Prototype Seismic and Tsunami Early Warning System in Rhodes Island, Greece. EGUGA; 2014. Papadopoulos G, Tselentis GA, & Charalampakis M. (2016). The Hellenic national tsunami warning center: Research, operational and training activities. Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece, 50(2), 11001109; 2016. Pitilakis, K, Roumelioti Z, Raptakis D, Manakou M, Liakakis K, Anastasiadis A, & Pitilakis D. (2013). The EUROSEISTEST strong‐motion database and web portal. Seismological Research Letters, 84(5), 796804; 2013. Protopapadakis E, Schauer M, Pierri E, Doulamis AD, Stavroulakis GE, Böhrnsen JU, Langer S. (2016). A genetically optimized neural classifier applied to numerical pile integrity tests considering concrete piles. Computers & Structures; 2016. Rafiei MH, Adeli H. (2017). NEEWS:A novel earthquake early warning model using neural dynamic classification and neural dynamic optimization. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering; 2017.

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Raissi M, Perdikaris P, Karniadakis GE. (2019). Physics-informed neural networks: A deep learning framework for solving forward and inverse problems involving nonlinear partial differential equations. Journal of Computational Physics; 2019. Roumelioti Z, Karapetrou S, Manakou M, Pitilakis K, Raptakis D, Bindi D, Boxberger T. (2015). The contribution of EUROSEISTEST and building monitoring arrays in earthquake early warning and rapid damage assessment in Thessaloniki. Proceedings of 6th ICEGE, 14. Satriano C, Wu YM, Zollo A, Kanamori H. (2011). Earthquake early warning: Concepts, methods and physical grounds. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering; 2011. Sokos E, Zahradník J, Gallovič F, Serpetsidaki A, Plicka V, Kiratzi A, (2016). Asperity break after 12 years: The Mw6.4 2015 Lefkada (Greece) earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42; 2016. Spyrakos, CC, Maniatakis CA, & Taflambas J. (2008). Evaluation of near-source seismic records based on damage potential parameters: Case study: Greece. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 28(9), 738-753. Stavroulakis GE. (2001). Inverse and Crack Identification Problems in Engineering Mechanics. Springer; 2001. (2004). Neural network assisted crack and flaw identification in transient dynamics. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics; 2004. Strauss JA, Allen RM. (2016). Benefits and costs of earthquake early warning. Seismological Research Letters; 2016. Tsapanos TM, Burton PW, (1991). Seismic hazard evaluation for specific seismic regions of the world. Tectonophysics; 1991. Velazquez O, Pescaroli G, Cremen G, Galasso C. (2020). A Review of the Technical and Socio-Organizational Components of Earthquake Early Warning Systems.Frontiers in Earth Science; 2020. Wald DJ. (2020). Practical limitations of earthquake early warning. Earthquake Spectra; 2020. Xu Y, Burton PW, Tselentis GA. (2003). Regional Seismic Hazard for Revithoussa, Greece: An Earthquake Early Warning Shield and Selection of Alert Signals; 2003. Zacharenaki A, Fragiadakis M, Papadrakakis M. (2013) Reliability-based optimum seismic design of structures using simplified performance estimation methods. Engineering Structures; 2013. Zollo A, Colombelli S, Elia L, Emolo A, Festa G, Iannaccone G,Gasparini P. (2014). An integrated regional and on-site Earthquake Early Warning System for Southern Italy: Concepts, methodologies and performances. In Early Warning for Geological Disasters Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg; 2014.

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Chapter 6

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Urban Road Networks in Mountainous Areas D. Sotiriadis1,*, PhD, N. Klimis1, PhD, B. Margaris2, PhD, E.-I. Koutsoupaki1, E. Petala1, PhD and I. Dokas1, PhD 1 Department

of Civil Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, Xanthi, Greece 2 Institute of Engineering Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Thessaloniki, Greece

Abstract The natural ground relief in mountainous areas is usually modified by creating cuts and embankments to facilitate road construction. Risk is defined as the convolution between exposure, hazard and vulnerability of assets. The purpose of this study is the assessment of the seismic risk of road networks in mountainous areas in Northern Greece. Vulnerability is defined in terms of fragility curves, which express the probability that a structure will reach a damage state as a function of the intensity of the considered hazard. Risk assessment is performed along a vertical road axis connecting the city of Komotini and the Hellenic-Bulgarian borders. Fragility curves are developed for cuts, using material properties probabilistically defined for relevant geologic formations, incorporating the infinite slope sliding model. The sliding safety factor (Fs) and permanent ground deformations (PGD) are considered as damage indices and specific thresholds are assigned to express multiple damage states. The verification of the proposed fragility curves is made against local slope stability analyses for static loading conditions, as well as information from in-situ inspection. Combining the probabilistic seismic hazard, fragility and exposure input, probabilistic seismic damage distributions for 10, 50 and 100 years are derived. Results reveal possible minor to moderate disruption of traffic due to earthquake occurrence, even for limited investigation times.

Keywords: seismic risk, fragility curves, seismic hazard, cut slopes

*

Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected].

In: The Challenges of Disaster Planning, Management, and Resilience Editor: Michail Chalaris ISBN: 979-8-88697-229-0 © 2023 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

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Introduction Risk refers to the probability of harmful consequences like expected loss, environmental damages and disrupted economic activities, as a result of the combination between hazard, vulnerability and physical exposure of an element. Risk assessment is the estimation of the social and economic impact that hazards may have on people, services, and infrastructure and specifically, probabilistic seismic risk assessment refers to the product of the probability of potential earthquakes and the probability of the consequences induced by the potential seismic ground motions (Zheng et al., 2020). The general procedure of risk assessment consists primarily of the identification of hazard and its intensity, location, duration and frequency of occurrence and the inventory of assets that can be affected by hazardous events. Hazard maps which are developed to depict areas that are vulnerable to a particular hazard and structure classification are of major importance. Subsequently, loss estimation and the proposal of mitigation options integrate the assessment (Indirli, 2007). Past events have shown that earthquakes cause damage to structural and geotechnical elements of road networks, which leads to disruption of road functionality. These damages can result in short-term and long-term losses. Loss can be distinguished into direct and indirect. Direct loss refers to the physical damages caused to the network components while indirect loss refers to the reduced functionality of the road network as the increase in travel time. Several studies have applied methodologies for the seismic risk assessment of road networks. Argyroudis et al. (2015) presented a classification of the methodologies for loss estimation, in three levels: connectivity, capacity and integrated loss estimation. In connectivity analyses, the critical portions of a network are identified, with respect to the network’s connectivity. Tung (2004) developed a methodology to estimate the road blockage level in an earthquake scenario and conducted a case study in Latipur, KathmanduNepal. The blockage level was based on an estimation of debris volume, the distribution and the relative distance from collapsed buildings. Pitilakis et al. (2006), presented the RISK-UE methodology for seismic risk assessment of utility systems and transportation infrastructures, which estimates interactions between the urban environment and lifelines for different seismic scenarios, developed in a GIS environment. Grasso and Maugeri (2009), analyzed the vulnerability of road infrastructures, related to seismic-induced slope instability, liquefaction and retaining wall instability, for the mitigation of loss in Catania, Italy. Mavrouli et al. (2019), developed a methodology for the calculation of risk due to slope instabilities, in terms of the probability of failure and its consequences, which was applied to points of risk over the road network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country. The expected road damage was assessed in terms of fixed unit cost, with the highest risk being associated with retaining structures. In capacity analyses, apart from the direct losses, the network’s capability to accommodate traffic flow is also considered by estimating the increase in travel time. Argyroudis et al. (2005) proposed a methodology for seismic risk analysis of urban road networks, based on estimating the direct and indirect damages to roadway components and building stock, for a given seismic scenario. An application of the methodology was made in the roadway network of Thessaloniki, Greece, and the indirect damage to the road network due to collapse patterns of buildings was defined by a simple correlation between the typology of buildings and the induced debris. Another capacity analysis was conducted by Sextos et al. (2017), by applying the Retis-Risk framework for the road network of western Macedonia, Greece, to assess the structural and traffic cost due to earthquake scenarios of a certain return period. The fragility of bridges,

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overpasses and tunnels was considered. To identify effective loss mitigation measures, two alternative risk management strategies were examined; one concerning a retrofit program for the most critical components and the second strategy of improved post-earthquake response, indicating the important contribution of risk management to loss mitigation. Integrated analyses intend to a holistic estimation of loss, by examining the direct damages to structures, indirect network-related loss as the increased travel time, and loss resultant from reduced activity in the economic sectors. Kilanitis and Sextos (2019), developed a framework of integrated loss estimation due to earthquakes, consisting of the evaluation of structural damage, pre- and post-earthquake traffic flows and travel time. The increase in travel time was expressed in monetary terms per time unit. Also, time-variant vectors were introduced to assess earthquake loss to the financial life of the affected area, the connectivity between points of interest and the environment. The general methodology developed in the SYNER-G project was applied by Argyroudis et al. (2015) for probabilistic systemic risk analysis of the road network in Thessaloniki, Greece. The methodology includes a general framework to evaluate the vulnerability to earthquakes of a complex system of interconnected infrastructural systems of regional extension, accounting for inter- and intra-dependencies between the components. Uncertainties related to the problem are taken into consideration and the probabilistic evaluation of the network performance is carried out with Monte Carlo simulations. Single seismic scenarios were analyzed and then statistically combined, instead of using aggregated hazards. This indicated that the spatial correlation of the intensity measures may significantly affect performance. Furthermore, it was denoted that additional failure modes can be introduced when external systems influence the network’s components. Taking into consideration the aforementioned, effective risk assessment for transportation infrastructures in earthquake-prone areas is of major importance, as their damage can be greatly disruptive for rescue operations, may induce loss in economic sectors and have long-term social impacts. To be able to prevent and prepare for seismic hazards, stakeholders need to identify prone areas and determine risk levels and their possible impacts on the safety of society. In the present study, a pilot probabilistic seismic risk analysis is performed on a road axis connecting the city of Komotini, located in Northern Greece, and the Hellenic-Bulgarian borders. Although a variety of geotechnical structures exist around the road axis, emphasis is given to the cut slopes which are excavated to facilitate the road construction. More specifically, new seismic fragility curves are proposed for cut slopes, based on information available on a regional level, such as geological formation maps and slope angles. Damage states of cut slopes are defined and related to road functionality. The new fragility curves are implemented in a probabilistic seismic damage distribution analysis for various investigation times, which aims at specifying seismic risk for the road axis under study.

Vertical Road Axis under Investigation This study investigates the assessment of the seismic risk of road networks in mountainous areas in Northern Greece. It is focused on risk assessment along the vertical road axis of Komotini-Nymfaia. This axis is a part of Pan-European Corridor IX and connects the city of Komotini with the Hellenic-Bulgarian borders. It is located in the central part of the Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace. The total length of the axis is approximately 23km. From these,

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the 19km is a newly constructed road axis, whereas the others belong to the pre-existing road. The road includes one traffic lane per direction with a width of 3.75m. The total area of investigation covers a total area of 195km2. A map of the road axis area is presented in Figure 1.

Source: https://egnatia.eu. Figure 1. Area of the vertical road axis of Komotini-Nymfaia.

The selection of this area as an investigation area was based on both its great importance and the significant number of existing infrastructures. The main reasons for the selection are referred in the following: 1. The importance of the road axis for transportation is great. As mentioned above, the road axis connects the eastern Hellenic mainland and the central part of Bulgaria. So, it is a significant part of the main transportation route to the Balkan region. The construction of this axis leads to the development of Thrace as it connects the city of Komotini with others in Bulgaria’s mainland and Balkan region (e.g., Filiipoupoli, Bulgaria – 166km; Bucharest, Romania - 477km). This results in the development of the area both in terms of tourism and commerce. 2. The study area consists of an important amount of geologic formations outcropping. The engineering geological attributes and the geotechnical behavior of these formations are varied significantly.

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3. Along the axis, there are numerous infrastructures such as embankments, cut slopes, tunnels, etc. The last two reasons make the area ideal for the research of seismic risk assessment. The road axis is located in an extensive area that consists of a rich morphological relief. The existing morphological characteristics are related to both natural and geological processes which have taken place. The area can be divided into two parts. The northern one has an intense morphology and comprises numerous steep slopes and deep ravines. On the other hand, the morphology of the southern part is smooth with horizontal surfaces and small hills. Dense vegetation covers most of this area. This results in slopes being protected from landslides and erosion. The elevation ranges from 40 to 1115m. Concerning the natural slopes, their elevation ranges from 0⁰ to 51⁰ (Figure 2). Αs mentioned in Klimis et al. (2015), according to investigations, in the area close to the road axis the prevailing geological formation is a slightly to moderately weathered gray-gneiss with intercalations of highly weathered materials. However, during road construction, the excavating operations shοwed that gneissic rock mass is detected in different places either completely weathered or strongly disintegrated.

(a)

(b)

Figure 2. (a) Digital Elevation in m and (b) slope map in degrees. (Klimis et al., 2015).

In Figure 3, the geological map of the area is presented. It is observed that recent Quaternary formations cover the area. In the following, a list of the main formations with a brief description is given: • • •

Alluvials which consist of clays, coarser material and their mixtures. Clay formations (clay sandstones, marls, lagoon sediments). Torrential sediments consisting of coarse particles with a smaller quantity of clay.

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• • • • •

• • •

Flysch appears in interchanging layers of sandstones, limestones, marls with layers of tuffs. Volcano-sedimentary series comprising of tuffs, marls and sandstones. Amphibolites which permeable formations with high strength. Well layered and heavily fractured carbonate rocks (marbles and limestones). Alternating layers of gneisses and mica schists, intensively stressed and strained with permanent deformations easily discerned by the significant number of folds and fractures. Marbles of high strength and permeability. Very high strength and impermeable igneous rocks (granodiorites and granites). Hard rocks with good to excellent mechanical properties appearing mainly in the northern part of the area.

More details about geological formations can be found in Klimis et al. (2015).

Figure 3. Geologic Map digitized from the geologic Map of Greece 1:50000 (IGME) and updated using remote sensing techniques. (Klimis et al., 2015).

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The construction of the road axis also comprises numerous infrastructures. Five road tunnels with a total length of around 1.7 km, a bridge of 39.7m in length, as well as three intersections, four lower and two upper crossings are constructed. In addition, along the road axis, there are 43 embankments and 36 cut slopes with maximum heights of 35m and 60m, respectively. Finally, for functional purposes, some small technical projects such as tunnel control buildings, a building that includes the Nymphaea tunnel fire tank, parking and recreation areas are also built. This study focuses on the seismic risk assessment of several cut slopes. A possible failure of cut slopes may affect the transportation of people and products in the short and long term (emergency and relief operations). It has been proved that this kind of geotechnical structure is vulnerable to strong earthquakes. Taking into consideration the above, it is obvious that the investigation of cut slopes’ vulnerability is of great interest for seismic risk assessment. Based on the above, numerous cross sections of cut slopes are examined. Figure 4 shows the location of each cross section along the vertical axis and a schematic representation of them. The maximum height (Hmax) of cross sections varies from 20m to 60m. Each cross-section consists of a different number of steps which ranges from 2 to 7. Each step has a height (hstep) of 10m with an inclination (v:h) equal to 2:3/1:1/2.5:1. There are 1 to 6 benches of 3-4 m width with a transverse slope inclination of 6% towards the inner part of the cut slope.

(a)

(b)

Figure 4. (a) Locations of cross sections along the vertical road axis and (b) a schematic representation of them.

Concerning the geological survey which was conducted during the SciNetNatHaz Project (Klimis et al., 2015), cut slopes consist mainly of clayey sand or gneiss. Their physical and mechanical characteristics vary. More specifically, the unit weight (γ) ranges from 20.5 kN/m3 to 26.4 kN/m3, the effective cohesion (c΄) from 0 kPa to 200 kPa and the effective internal angle of friction (φ΄) between 25° and 43°.

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Fragility Curves of Cut Slopes Fragility curves comprise one of the major components of seismic probabilistic risk assessment of the built-up environment and lifeline systems. They describe the relationship between the seismic intensity and the probability of reaching or exceeding a damage state for elements exposed to risk. Different approaches can be used to develop the fragility curves, including empirical, judgment, analytical, and hybrid methods (Argyroudis and Kaynia, 2015). Although each method has its drawbacks, analytical methods are the most common. They can be further classified depending on whether limit equilibrium or numerical methods are used to perform the analysis (Wu, 2014). Various methods for probability stability analysis have been utilized for fragility analysis, such as the Monte Carlo simulation (Tobutt, 1982) and response surface method (Lu and Low, 2011), which have received wide recognition. Seismic slope stability methods have developed significantly since the beginning of the 20th century. Early methods were based on the consideration of seismic action as a simple pseudo-static horizontal force, which is included in a static limit equilibrium analysis (Terzaghi, 1950). Later, the Finite Element Method (FEM) was developed, which belongs to the stressdeformation analysis type and demanded significant computational power, especially at the early stages of its appearance (Clough and Chopra, 1966). Although the computational capabilities of modern computers have increased significantly, FEM is usually incorporated for special projects of high significance, whereas for ordinary projects the limit equilibrium methods are still used. To bridge the gap between the overly simplistic pseudo-static analysis and overly complex stress-deformation analysis, Newmark (1965) introduced a method to assess the performance of slopes during earthquakes. According to Newmark’s method, a landslide is modeled as a rigid body which slides along an inclined plane. The rigid body is characterized by a yield or critical acceleration, ky, which is defined as the acceleration needed to overcome the base resistance and initiate sliding. An earthquake strong-motion record is selected and its parts that exceed the critical acceleration are integrated to compute the velocity time history of the body. Then, the velocity time-history is integrated to calculate the cumulative displacement of the rigid body. This method, which has been extended further over the years by many researchers (Bray and Travasarou, 2007; Rathje and Antonakos, 2011; Rathje et al., 2014), has introduced another type of analysis, the permanent – displacement analysis. The development of seismic fragility curves of geotechnical structures at a regional level constitutes a demanding problem which is characterized by significant uncertainties. These uncertainties are attributed to the nature of soil material, as well as, to the lack of knowledge of the engineering properties of soil and the detailed geometry of such structures on a regional scale. As case-specific and complex analyses (e.g., FEM) are neither practical nor possible to perform at such a scale, simplified methods, which are easy to implement in a probabilistic manner, should be followed. The scope of the present study is to perform seismic risk analysis on the road axis presented in the previous section, emphasizing on the response of cut slopes. Therefore, in the following, the development of seismic fragility curves of cut slopes is presented, incorporating both the pseudo-static approach and the permanent displacement analysis.

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Fragility Curves of Cut Slopes Based on the Pseudo-Static Approach The pseudo-static approach has been selected as the first method to develop seismic fragility curves for cut slopes, using the infinite slope model to compute the Safety Factor (FS). The infinite slope model has been used for the development of fragility curves or risk assessment under various natural hazards (Montrasio and Valentino, 2008; Lagaros et al., 2009; Liao et al., 2010; Wu, 2014; Martinovic et al., 2016; Yue et al., 2018), due to its easy implementation, which promotes the execution of numerous simulations to take into account the relevant uncertainties. Within this model, both seismic and seepage forces can be taken into account. The acting forces considered in the infinite slope model are shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Analysis of acting forces considered in the infinite slope model.

In Figure 5, H is the thickness of sliding mass, over the sliding plane, kh is the horizontal seismic coefficient, kv is the vertical seismic coefficient, h is the thickness of saturated soil, γn is the unit weight of soil material, γsat is the unit weight of the saturated soil material, c is the soil cohesion, φ is the friction angle and Fw is the seepage force. The FS is calculated according to equation (1). (1) For the derivation of fragility curves, the safety factor acts as the performance index of slope stability. Therefore, various limit states are considered based on FS, which are associated with the safety margins and vulnerability of the slope. In this study, the limit states presented by Lagaros et al. (2009) were adopted, which are presented in Table 1.

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Table 1. Correlation of performance index (FS) with the vulnerability state and safety margins of slopes Vulnerability state Optimal Sufficient Moderate Minor Unacceptable

Safety margins Very high High Moderate Low None

Range of damage index Fs>2.0 1.4