The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable [2nd ed] 9780679604181, 0679604189, 9780812973815, 081297381X
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groun
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English Pages XXXIII, [1], 444 s.: il.; 20 cm Year 2007;2010
Table of contents :
Prologue --
Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic
Yevgenia's black swan
The speculator and the prostitute
One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker
Confirmation shmonfirmation!
The narrative fallacy
Living in the antechamber of hope
Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence
The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd --
We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction
How to look for bird poop
Epistemocracy, a dream
Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? --
Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back
The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud
The aesthetics of randomness
Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places
The uncertainty of the phony --
The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan --
Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans --
Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest
Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile
Margaritas ante porcos
Asperger and the ontological black swan
(Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy
Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems
What to do with the fourth quadrant
Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society
Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
Prologue --
Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic
Yevgenia's black swan
The speculator and the prostitute
One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker
Confirmation shmonfirmation!
The narrative fallacy
Living in the antechamber of hope
Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence
The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd --
We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction
How to look for bird poop
Epistemocracy, a dream
Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? --
Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back
The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud
The aesthetics of randomness
Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places
The uncertainty of the phony --
The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan --
Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans --
Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest
Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile
Margaritas ante porcos
Asperger and the ontological black swan
(Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy
Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems
What to do with the fourth quadrant
Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society
Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
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