Social Issues in Regional Policy and Planning 9783110807530, 9789027976017

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SOCIAL ISSUES IN REGIONAL POLICY AND REGIONAL PLANNING

New Babylon

Studies in the Social Sciences

27

MOUTON

· THE HAGUE · PARIS

Social Issues in Regional Policy and Regional Planning Edited by

Antoni Kuklinski

MOUTON

· THE HAGUE

· PARIS

ISBN: 90 279 7601 5 © 1977, Mouton & Co Printed in the Netherlands

Contents

Preface

νιΐ

PART ONE: POLICY 1. Regional problems in socio-economic policy, by Kasimierz Secomski 2. Social planning in a regional framework, by Andreas G. Papandreou 3. Normative problems and social issues in regional analysis, by Louis Lefeber 4. Regional policy and planning in social perspective: A planner's point of view, by Bohdan J. Gruchman 5. Regional policy as social planning, by Paul Drewe 6. The impact of social organization and environment upon the time-use of individuals and households, by Torsten Hägerstrand 7. Regional and environmental planning in social perspective, by John H. Cumberland

3 15 19 23 29 59 69

PART TWO: INTEGRATION 1. Welfare economics and the 'unified approach' to development planning, by Benjamin Higgins 91 2. The city as development centre, by J. A. Ponsioen 115 3. A sociological concept of polarized development, by Zygmunt Pioro 141 4. Towards an operational definition of psychological distance, by Leo H. Klaassen and Sjoerd Wagenaar 159 5. Social issues in regional policy and regional planning, by Antoni Kuklinski 167

VI

Contents

PART THREE: CASE STUDIES 1. Problems of social policies in regional planning: The experience of Poland, by Wincenty Kawalec 2. Social aspects of regional planning, by Benjamin Higgins . . 3. Some social aspects of regional development in Latin America, by Rub6n D. Utria 4. Social disparities and regional policy in Britain, by Morgan Sant 5. Urban planning and its impact on the quality of urban life in West European cities, by Leo H. Klaassen 6. Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and Swedish geographic research, by Allan R. Pred

175 189 195 231 273 299

PART FOUR: RESEARCH 1. The role of social equipment and environment in regional economic growth, by Leo H. Klaassen 2. A framework for dealing with the urban environment: Introductory statement, by Harvey S. Perloff 3. The urban-regional dimension in regional planning research, by Charles L. Leven 4. The integrated social science approach to regional planning in developing countries, by Janusz A. Ziolkowski 5. Sociological aspects of regional development and of planning for regional development: Some issues and areas for further exploration, by H.J.A. Morsink 6. Regional or spatial sociology?, by Tommy Carlstein 7. The sociological failure in regional planning: Comments on some recent publications in the field of sociology and planning, by Herman Baeyens 8. Prospects of regional sociology, by Antoni Kuklinski

375 391 421 435

461 489

505 515

Contributors

523

Acknowledgements

531

Preface Itaque non aqua, non igni, ut aiunt, locis pluribus utimur quam amititia ... Quomque plurimas et maximas commoditates amititia contineat, tum ilia nimirum praestat omnibus, quod bonam spem praelucet in posterum nec debilitari animos aut cadere patitur. Therefore, we do not use the proverbial 'water and fire' on more occasions than we use friendship ... Seeing that friendship includes very many and very great advantages, it undoubtedly excels all other things in this respect, that it projects the bright ray of hope into the future, and does not suffer the spirit to grow faint or to fall. MARCUS TULLIUS CICERO, De amititia, 6 , 2 3

This volume is dedicated to my Friends in many countries around the world who have supported my efforts to build up or to disseminate new approaches to Regional Development and Planning. In those long and difficult years - to paraphrase the quotation of Marcus Tullius Cicero - I needed their Friendship more than water and fire. This Friendship created for me the light of good hope and the strength to survive the hours of weakness and resignation. This feeling of friendly cooperation is especially manifested in the editorial activities related to this volume on Social Issues in Regional Policy and Regional Planning. It is an independent volume, not sponsored by any institution. It is a product of the direct cooperation of the authors, the publisher and the editor. It is not an accident that this volume on Social Issues in Regional Policy and Regional Planning will be published in the New Babylon Series. The field of Regional Policy and Regional Planning has a rich and distinguished record in the application of interdisciplinary approaches to the solution of the theoretical and practical problems. This experience may be interesting to a broad community of scholars from the general methodological point of view. Therefore, the publication of this volume in the New Babylon Series can be considered as an attempt to broaden the group of

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Preface

scholars interested in regional problems. This interest may be direct and substantial or indirect and related only to general methodological considerations. This volume consists of four main parts: I - Policy, II - Integration, III - Case Studies and IV - Research Priorities. This division should not be taken too seriously. It is only a proposal of a certain sequence in the absorption of the contents of the volume. What is more important - is to look at the materials and studies published in the volume as a contribution to the solution of the following problems: 1. The identification of social issues in regional policy and regional planning. Two approaches are presented in the volume: a) A technical-planistic approach concentrating attention on the perfection of planning concepts and instruments as applied to the existing social reality. b) A socio-political approach concentrating attention on the goals and conditions of social transformations leading to the creation of a new social reality. The comparison of these two orientations - technical and ideological - can be a very interesting factor in the analysis of the contents of this volume. 2. The development of comprehensive approaches to regional policy and regional planning. The social issues presented in this volume are, in most cases, discussed in a broad framework of comprehensive approaches to Regional Policy and Regional Planning. Especially important are the contributions analysing the interrelations of social, environmental and economic dimensions in policy and planning. 3. The integration of socio-economic policies and planning activities. It is well known that regional policy and planning must always be seen in a broad general framework of socio-economic policy and planning activities. This point of view is reflected in this volume. Several contributions discuss directly or indirectly the salient issues involved in the integration of socio-economic policy and planning activities. 4. A tentative formulation of research priorities in the field of social approaches to Regional Policy and Regional Planning.

Preface

IX

This problem is discussed not only in Part IV. The contents of the whole volume can be analysed as an attempt to define new research priorities in our field. It is an open question if this research can be stimulated by the promotion of Regional Sociology as proposed in the last paper of the volume. I hope this panoramic review of the contents of the volume supports the argument that the volume presents studies and materials interesting not only for scholars and planners directly involved in regional policy and regional planning but also for those members of our academic community who look for examples of interdisciplinary approaches and for new perspectives in the development of the social sciences. As mentioned at the beginning of the Preface, this volume is a product of the friendly cooperation of numerous persons from different countries and of different professions. Let me say in this place a most sincere 'thank you' to each individual who has helped to build up this volume. Special thanks are expressed to the School of International Affairs, Carleton University in Ottawa, which has created the take-off conditions for my editorial activities related to this volume, and to Mrs. Hannelore Brown of Mouton Publishers, in whom I found most enthusiastic and competent editorial assistance. Krutyn, September 7, 1974

ANTONI KUKLINSKI

PART ONE

Policy

KASIMIERZ SECOMSKI

1

Regional problems in socio-economic policy

1. Recent years have seen an especially rapid development of regional studies. This has been due no doubt to a number of reasons, among which the most important today is the necessity for optimum utilization of the element of space. In the past we attached the greatest weight to economic factors of development, laying the strongest emphasis on problems of comprehensive utilization of factors of human labour, fixed assets and natural resources of the country. At present - especially under the conditions of rapid advances in sciences, technology and modern organization an ever-greater importance is attached to the need for integration of economic and social elements of development. For, in point of fact, neglect or delay of the separate social fields in any given country always acts to impede the dynamics of economic growth. This means that coordination and the establishment of optimum relationships between economic and social factors of development have become the bases of modern socio-economic policy. Apart from that we emphasize the indispensability of simultaneously taking into account the element of space, treated from various points of view. The starting base for the integration of economic, social and spatial elements of development is usually a general formulation according to which all processes of economic growth and development of the society are taking place in a concrete space, on the one hand affecting the transformation of the natural environment and on the other being subject in many cases to the consequences of the policy for its protection. At the same time the element of space has become one of the key economic factors and constitutes a weighty item in the overall economic calculus. Similarly, just as we recognize as obvious the need for optimum utilization of labour reserves, fixed assets of natural resources - the optimum utilization of the element of space - must also be recognized today as one of the

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Kasimierz Secomski

principal criteria for the planning and policy of the development of the socialist economy. Although we still consider as indispensable the perfecting of economic calculus and the social evaluation of processes of spatial development, nevertheless problems connected with the general introduction of the factor of space constitute at present fundamental elements in the planning of the processes of growth. This was why, not only in the theoretical sense but also in practice, it has become necessary to integrate the long-range plans of socio-economic development and of spatial development of the country. Comprehensive coordination of the premises of socio-economic policy and spatial policy constitutes at present a sine qua non for the achievement of optimum effects from planning of development processes in the socialist economy. 2. Another thesis of a general nature is the necessity for an essential development of spatial research (an attempt to outline the latest trends in the development of theory and practice of spatial research [including regional studies] is presented in a collective volume Spatial planning and policy: Theoretical foundations. Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, 1974.), first of all as a regional approach. Although the greatest practical results in this field may be noted in recent years, we still consider the results obtained both in articulating sound theories of regional development and in implementing regional policy and planning as simply the opening up of extremely promising research fields with enormous prospects for future studies. It should be noted in particular that the results obtained, both in theory and practice, in connecting the development of the economy of a given country with the world economy exert at the same time an essential influence on current economic policy. Of great practical importance in this respect are the ever-broader trends toward international cooperation, particularly the division of labour and specialization of development; these are particularly apparent in the functioning of large international groups such as the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance, the European Economic Community, etc. The principles of socialist integration of the economies of the C.M.E.A. member countries have become the basis of great economic advantages, increasing the achievements of the C.M.E.A. as a whole and of its individual member states. Much more modest are - from this point of view - the results, in theory and practice, in the utilization of premises of regional development,

Regional problems in socio-economic policy

5

although, as regards the technique and regional research, we observe the spontaneous development of regional plans and can note their universality. At present, every socialist country is being covered by a network of macro-regional and regional plans as well as local plans (including also large urban and industrial agglomerations). However, the regional aspects of development processes still require an efficient approach on the level of the national plan (and should affect its provisions) as well as concretization and coordination with a number of phenomena of local development. It is possible against this background to quote, as an example, the general principles and research work orientated toward the integration of the planning of development on the country and individual regional level. This concerns first of all the supreme goal set for the whole economy and the society in the central national plan. The supreme goal is, namely, the necessity of guaranteeing a systematic improvement of the living conditions of the population and a constant striving for an optimum meeting of the needs of the individual, the society and the economy. Concrete achievements in this field constitute the main criterion for the effectiveness of the planning and implementation of the socio-economic policy and are, at the same time, a proof of the effectiveness of the methods of implementation and utilization of means. The goals of the development of the individual and the socialist society have priority, which means that the directions of economic growth and tasks must be subordinated to the requirements and premises of social development. This means that economic development must serve the attainment of social goals and should be adjusted to the needs of man and his society. Such a general approach on the level of the entire economy constitutes at the same time a criterion on the basis of which all contradictions appearing in the developmental processes must be settled. There appears, at the same time, the necessity for specific regionalization of the supreme goal of social development. Irrespective of its central character (that is, of its being the supreme principle of the national plan), a given goal must be concretized in the regional plan. General premises of social development must be also exploited in order to fulfil with a social substance all of the provisions of a regional plan and the directions of growth laid down in it. Only research into the most purposeful and effective 'translation' of the principles of the supreme goal of development into concrete decisions in regional plans can guarantee in practice an all-around - and at the same

6

Kasimierz Secomski

time widely conceived - translation of the idea of the supreme character of social development into all fields of a developed regional plan. 3. The central plan has at its disposal in practice the greater part of material and personnel means in the country. Together with the setting of development goals and the resultant tasks, appropriate means are distributed among the individual regions. One should not, however, overestimate too much the above principle because every regional plan is supplemented in practice, apart from the means obtained from the central plan, by its own resources and local reserves. In addition, one must not underestimate the scale of the additional possibilities which may be utilized in every region for a more rapid and at the same time more purposeful intensification of the processes of growth. In point of fact, we have in practice a considerable increase of material and personnel means for a more rapid achievement of the development goals and tasks. There is no need to emphasize here how important are regional reserves in increasing the rate of growth. Another aspect of the regional development possibilities is the efficiency of action and the dynamism of innovations. In particular, local enterprise and inventiveness, as well as energy in the improvement of the administration of a given region, play an outstanding role in practice. Both central and local means may be used more efficiently and far more effectively. The dynamism of innovations and enterprise is treated today as an essential element intensifying the development processes. We find here one of the crown arguments justifying a systematic deepening and perfecting of the functioning of the national economy as a whole on the basis of its markedly increased capacities on the regional scale. The contribution of the individual regions can be much greater. This is facilitated by decentralization of a majority of decision-making powers as well as by their more flexible use. We pass on here to the necessity of differentiating the methods of implementation of the central and regional plans, regardless of the systematic improvement of the methods of planning itself and the subsequent execution of the plans, one must take into account the specific and detailed methods of operation in a given region. A high degree of independence of action, especially as regards the concretization of local goals of development and the use of optimum methods for activities, must be considered as one of the most essential criteria for purposeful planning and regional development policy.

Regional problems in socio-economic policy

7

Of course, from the point of view of the needs of the economy as a whole, one must formulate criteria which will be the basis for allocation of investment funds and manpower reserves. However, the distribution of these means does not in the least close the field for research and studies. Quite the contrary - it only opens up the way to research on problems connected with optimum utilization of these funds in manpower. It is in no case surprising when we say that it is possible to obtain in a given region considerably greater results in comparison with other regions from the same quantitative and structural means. We arrive here also at a problem which is one of the most complex in the socio-economic sense, namely, the much greater effectiveness of means concentrated in large urban and industrial agglomerations of a high level of scientific, technological and economic development. This specific rank of already developed areas cannot be omitted in interregional calculations, although it is necessary after all to adopt decisions based on general activating premises and criteria which would permit a strengthening of the bases of the development of less-advanced regions. It has proved indispensable of late in the practice of regional planning in the socialist countries to treat the regional problems and their frequent contradictions not only in the context of country/region but also in the context country/macro-region/region. The introduction of an intermediary link between the national and the regional plans is dictated by the results of studies and research showing that, for example, a number of coastal regions, or regions similar to one another from the socio-economic point of view, can solve jointly a number of their problems, seeking optimum directions of activity in closer interregional cooperation. These problems include a better organization of population migration, protection of the natural environment in zones neighbouring one another, common water supply installations for large cities and industrial and agricultural complexes, shared transport systems in large zones of tourism and recreation. This involves also long-range planning and the reservation of certain areas for this purpose. There has arisen similarly an interesting problematique connected with a marked increase in the coordination of local plans (development of the individual towns and urban areas, as well as industrial centres and regions, including larger agglomerations), both by working out respective regional plans and, on the macro-regional level, by affecting in a more orderly manner the directions of the development of whole belts, transport axes and water systems.

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Kasimierz Secomski

4. The achievements of regional planning include of late the ever-more widely accepted thesis concerning the universality and deeper treatment of the problematique of social development, for regardless of the general directions of social policy and the resultant tasks in developing society indicated in the national plan - it is necessary to emphasize, in terms of practice, the indisputable need for detailed concretization of what is planned and subsequently implemented in the regional plans. We pass, after all, from general formulations to the necessity of laying down detailed directions and outlining tasks for implementation, tasks whose rich social content requires a considerably broadened approach to both means and ends. Connected with this is the necessity for proper supervision to guarantee optimum implementation, both as regards utilization of means and maximalization of the goals set. Hence the policy and planning of social development are mirrorred in practice in the collective and synthetic provisions of the national plan as well as in the detailed execution tasks in the regional plans which play such an important practical role. The latter must not be treated solely as regional or local cross-sections of the goals, tasks and means formulated in the central plan, for in reality we have to do in the regional plan with the important process of concretization and enrichment in which the whole of the tasks of social development are expanded, both at the stage of planning and later at the stage of implementation - and functioning - of the system of social facilities, guaranteeing ever-wider benefits for the whole of the population. This means that the general directions of social development assume full value, proper significance and practical importance only after being 'translated' into the language of decisions contained in the regional plans. The same applies to the growing importance of policies to protect the natural environment. It is understandable that the general tasks and directions of activity in this field, backed by sufficient means, must first find support in the provisions of the central plan. Therefore one must not, in the national policy, lower the priority of purposeful utilization of space and its proper protection. On the other hand, only the provisions of regional plans and the concrete activity of local organs can ensure all-around achievements expressed, among other things, in the everyday protection of both larger and smaller areas requiring special care by local authorities. In practice, we observe very frequently that proper protection of certain areas requires the use

Regional problems in socio-economic policy

9

of comparatively small financial means but widely developed social activity and often individual efforts by various local units or institutions. The sum of achievements of this type constitutes at present a highly valuable contribution to the general policy of the protection of natural environment. This is also accomplished in many cases by way of initiatives and countermeasures against the infringement of natural conditions, that is, the prevention of undesirable phenomena whose subsequent elimination is either extremely difficult or extremely expensive. Especially complex problems on the scale of the national plan and regional plans include, no doubt, the problem of specialization of development directions in various regions. By the very nature of things, this is a domain of central planning, that is, of striving for the optimum utilization, for the benefit of the national economy of the specific characteristics or natural values of specific regions. This is fully understandable as regards a more rapid development and optimum exploitation of natural resources to be found in the individual regions. Under contemporary conditions of development, and particularly in the light of the rapid scientific and technological advance and as a result of international cooperation and development of concrete socio-economic fields, it becomes necessary for designers of national policy and planning to shape principles of specialization of development for each individual region. This requires the development on a considerable scale of longrange planning, which means that national long-range planning must be backed by the long-range plans for the development of each of the regions. It requires many years of efforts to create conditions under which it will be fully possible to realize advantages stemming from the specialized development of a given region. This leads to a number of practical conclusions. If we establish, against the background of the international division of labour, a list of concrete, primary elements which are of decisive importance for the modernization of a given country, obviously the development of these elements must be fully mirrorred in the provisions of the regional plans. In this situation, contradictions appear in many cases between the point of view of a given element and the point of view of a given region. Unequivocal evaluations are not always obtained on the basis of the criteria of a given element and the interest of the region. From this angle, we do not always have at our disposal a sufficiently developed calculus - as well as social criteria - for an easier settlement of those contradictions. Of specific importance also are analyses of the effects of international

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Kasimierz Secomski

cooperation, particularly when one is concerned with shaping the development offrontier regions. The large number of natural ties appearing here indicates in many cases the necessity of choosing a path of development which takes into account the advantages not only for the economy of a single country but for that of several countries. Last but not least - apart from socio-economic premises - it becomes necessary to introduce specific criteria with reference to the policy for the development of poorly developed regions. An additional group of problems is presented here by the necessity of carrying out analyses not only on the mezzo- but also on the micro-scale. Here, besides the need to compare whole regions, it is necessary in practice to analyse and compare the needs of smaller areas, that is, districts and industrial centres, particularly those situated in areas less economically advanced. The general idea of a higher rate of growth for less-developed areas has gained a general acceptance and popularity. However, it is necessary to improve the cost-benefit analysis, taking into account both the interest of national economy and the interest of individual, less-developed regions. The assumption of most effective utilization of available means can lead to their concentration in selected centres. This solution will generate a quicker and bigger growth of national income. As a consequence the means increased in this way will create new possibilities to satisfy more fully both the needs of the national economy as a whole and, indirectly or even directly, the needs of the less-developed areas. It is necessary, however, to find a proper time horizon for the totality of actions and activities related to this aim. Therefore it is very important to prepare long-term regional plans indicating the consecutive reduction of regional disparities and the stages of accelerated growth in less-developed regions. 5. As the last of key regional problems arising in the socio-economic policy one should mention the expansion of the technological,economic and social infrastructure. It is easy to find out that the analyses of infrastructural facilities existing in every country show essential differences in the level of the development of the individual regions. We use here often the design of a long-term model of the development of a given country, the achievement of optimum systems of infrastructure, which are a key part of the settlement system. There exist, of course, general premises for the shaping of an optimum technical, economic and social infrastructure. In practice, however, the above issues are far more complex because there exists a large wealth of problems connected with infrastructural

Regional problems in socio-economic policy

11

facilities requiring a close relationship with the development plans of the various sectors of the economy as well as with the needs of the individual regions. The policy of the distribution of the productive potentials and the population reflects long-range development prospects. While being fully aware of the indispensability of long-range planning of the network of infrastructural facilities, we may also employ in this field a certain systematization of problems which affect the decisions contained in the national and regional plans. The forefront place is held here in practice by problems arising from the analysis of the status quo. The evaluation of the level of development of the various regions and urban and industrial agglomerations reveals serious disproportions whose liquidation or even alleviation constitutes an understandable and often urgent problem for each of the regions. These disproportions are, of course, the effect of historical processes, and it is usually impossible to make up those arrears in a brief period; both the national plan and its regional versions design long-term schedules for the alleviation of the disproportions which have been piling up over many years. Another principle of the policy of optimum shaping of the infrastructure is the principle of current coordination of the development of the various centres and areas of the country with their equipment in infrastructural facilities. From the very beginning - especially in the construction of new industrial centres or regions - there should be a proper relationship between new economic centres and the programme for construction of the indispensable infrastructural facilities. It is also necessary in practice to prevent the appearance of new disproportions in the equipment of infrastructural facilities. Finally, on the basis of the provisions of the long-range plan, it becomes indispensable to prognosticate the directions and the areas of intensive development. The development of infrastructure must anticipate the needs which emerge in pace with the intensification of the growth of existing or potential agglomerations. The same applies to the evaluation of the long-term needs in the field of infrastructure against the background of the future polycentric spatial system of the country and its regions on the basis of its settlement network. In a number of cases it is possible to design a highly purposeful policy entailing the early construction of indispensable infrastructural facilities for a given area; these will, in turn, constitute factors stimulating the socio-economic development of that region or the part of it covered by the development policy. It is necessary to point out in conclusion the growing importance of the

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development of servicing complexes, that is, the construction of systems of infrastructural facilities guaranteeing the all-around satisfaction of the needs of a given locality and its population. Both as regards the conception of regional planning and the course of its practical implementation, the development of such servicing complexes is treated as an optimum solution, both in the economic and social sense. A very premise in the planning of servicing complexes is their comparatively lower investment cost and subsequent ease of exploitation. Common solutions of many problems of this kind constitute at the same time a predominating characteristic feature of the complex approach to the solution of numerous regional problems. The list of regional problems in socio-economic policy and national planning which require a proper approach is very long, and new problems are ever appearing in it. There is no doubt, however, that the problems enrich the content of the national plan and that they require, at the same time, a systematic expansion of regional research and studies as well as an optimum treatment in the very policy and regional plan itself. Current regional problems and problems of a long-term nature make up together an essential spur to regional planning, the expansion of the scope of the regional plans themselves and their ever-better coordination with national and macro-regional plans. The analysis of regional problems presented above leads also to the formulation of important tasks for the development of research and studies. In particular, besides the new approach to the problems of the protection of natural environment, one should underline the importance of systematic studies on migration and the interregional shifts of fixed assets. The scale and direction of migration flows are being investigated as well as the guidance of migrations via different instruments of national and regional policy. As a rule in regions of labour surplus, there are tendencies to use them locally. At the same time we face the urgent need of regions deficient in local labour supply. In this way conflicts emerge. The confrontation of these conflicts demands proper analysis and evaluation prepared by competent research institutions. Only under these conditions can we find objective premises for a policy of planned guidance of migration flows and for a policy of the creation of new jobs. In the last years' studies on settlement networks have been conducted, especially on polycentric spatial patterns.

Regional problems in socio-economic policy

13

A special place should be allocated to those research activities which are related to consecutive stages in the scientific and technological revolution. In the first place we are interested here in the role of big centres of science, technology and modern organization including the comprehensive utilization of these resources according to the interests of national economy and regional needs. Special attention is concentrated on the influence large urban industrial agglomerations have on the intensification of the processes of the scientific and technical revolution and on the consecutive changes in the socioeconomic and spatial structure of the country. Following earlier experiences, the key importance of research concerning regional specialization patterns and cooperation among regions should be stressed. Starting from theoretical discussions outlining the validity of the general premise that it is necessary to have regional specialization, we develop more concrete approaches to interregional cooperation and longterm specialization patterns. At the present moment, we see definite progress in the formulation of specific assumptions for the development of coordination policies on the country/macro-region/region level. Last but not least, we should mention the important research topics related to regional social problems. In most cases we use the constantly improved regional models of the level of living analysed in comparison with the long-term national model. The assumptions of social development in regional and national perspective are starting points for the delineation of economic targets. The arguments presented above indicate that the intensification of practical actions in regional policies must be associated with, or even anticipated by, systematic spatial research.

ANDREAS G. PAPANDREOU

2

Social planning in a regional framework

Planning as a formal process of decision-making is made up of three distinct elements: the articulation of goals, the determination of feasible social states, and the adoption of policies for attaining social goals. This, of course, is commonplace. What is not fully understood, however, is the intimate interdependence - one could say, the circularity - among these three processes. For they constitute facets of a continuous search process. The feasibility of social states is not simply an objective datum but must be inferred. And it is inferred from the analytical model that is employed by the planning authority. Undeniably, of course, what is or is not feasible depends on the historically given initial conditions. These initial conditions include not only the structure of the physical environment and the known technologies, but also the structure of the society in question and, indeed, its judicial, political, and cultural superstructure. All this is given objectively and constitutes an aspect of what may be called historical necessity. Side by side with these objectively given initial conditions, there is injected a subjective element, which may be identified as the system of beliefs of the planning authority. This system of beliefs is incorporated into the model of the social process held by the planning authority. The planning authority's model reflects its own perception of the dynamics of the social system which it is empowered to steer into the future. The selection of a model by the planning authority is a creative task and, furthermore, one subject to the limitations imposed upon the authority's field of vision by the prevailing ideology and the structure of power. Be that as it may what is or is not perceived as being feasible is necessarily also subjective. Thus, the feasibility of a societal trajectory is always presumptive. Historical necessity reappears here, but in a subjective sense; that is, it is historical necessity as perceived by the planning authority. But there is more. Characteristically, the model is constructed to the

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specifications required by the goals to be attained. The posited goals, in turn, depend on the initial assumptions made concerning the available alternative instruments. Thus, there is present here a dialectic [interaction among perception (beliefs) and norms (values). A change in goals, or the admission of new instruments, changes the outcome in profound ways. In this context, it is worthwhile to distinguish among three types of planning. The first type may be called societal management. The basic socio-economic structure is taken as given, which is manifested by the character of the variables which are recognized as legitimate instruments. We are dealing in this case with a servomechanism which is intended to keep the performance of the system within a socially acceptable framework. This is characteristically what is meant by public planning in the capitalist societies of the West. Keynesian policy-oriented models are exactly of that type. The inclusion in the planning model, on a more or less significant scale, of instruments or levers which affect social structure opens new vistas for society, vistas that are manifested in the expansion of the set of alternative feasible trajectories open to that society. This is exactly what is meant by development planning. It is characteristic of most of the developing countries of the Third World, and of post-revolutionary socialist regimes that have not accepted the status quo as a final state of affairs. Interestingly enough, in the advanced capitalist countries of the West, development planning is carried out, not by the public authority (whose role is, at best, restricted to societal management), but by private centres of power which express the interests of the capitalist establishment. Finally, in truly revolutionary situations, the set of structural instruments is extended to encompass society at large, the whole fabric of social organization. One may properly think of this third type of planning as organizational design. Organizational design constitutes social engineering on a grand scale, asserting that natura facit saltum. In this connection, there arises a fundamental question: Since no theory of social change is available in a directly useful form, how is it possible to talk about planned change, about social action on a global scale which is intended to produce development toward ambitious preset targets? In other words, what are the scientific foundations of organizational design? The answer, no matter how unsatisfactory, is relatively simple. Organizational design constitutes a particular form of decision-making on the basis of limited information. Action and knowledge are intimately related. Thus, the process must be viewed as a special case of learning on a societal scale. Societal management takes the status quo as given, and it is natural,

Social planning in a regional framework

17

therefore, that the issues raised by this type of planning are primarily technical. Since the power structure, the rules of the game and the prevailing ideology are taken as given, planning seems to take on a technocratic, value-free character. Naturally, this is only an illusion, for the technical solutions are sought in the framework of a dominant value commitment, that society, as it is, is good enough. In development planning, but most dramatically, in organizational design, the social contract is squarely in the middle of the scene. Planning, in this context, is primarily and overwhelmingly a political, not a technical process. The far-reaching political significance of a structure-changing plan springs from the fact that its implementation affects: The ratio of consumption to national income, the personal distribution of wealth, the functional distribution of income, the regional distribution of economic activity, the extent to which non-domestic resources will be used and the conditions under which they will be obtained, the role of the state or other social instrumentalities in the overall process. Thus the plan - in this context involves purposive social engineering, and calls for the use of political power on a grand scale. This becomes the case much more clearly, if we understand, as we should, that, notwithstanding the myths of neoclassical economics, allocative and distributive decisions are not in fact separable. I have argued elsewhere (in Paternalistic capitalism. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, 1972. Pp. 178-183) that to make planning (development planning or organizational design) responsive to the will of the working man, to turn it into genuine social (rather than dominant class or elitist) planning, it is necessary to redistribute power - indeed, to decentralize it. And this decentralization, both logically and historically, can hardly be sought along functional lines. It almost inevitably must be sought along regional lines. We speculate, therefore, that the quest for a decentralized planning structure must be built around a regional confederation. In this framework, the national plan emerges as a composite of the regional plans, through an interregional bargaining process. This bargaining process is oriented to the resolution of conflicts among the regions as they arise form possible unfavourable impacts, on one or more regions, of each regional unit's planned action (or inaction); and also to the resolution of conflicts arising from unfavourable impacts on one or more regions of nationwide action (or inaction). The bargaining process is subject, of course, to rules accepted and observed by the participating regional units - for otherwise there would be no sense in talking about national planning. Thus, interregional or national

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consensus is a necessary condition for the viability of the scheme. Such a consensus is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain in the framework of the capitalist ethic. We are thus forced to conclude that, historically, a socialist ethic is a necessary (though not necessarily a sufficient) condition for a regionally decentralized planning process that is responsive to the needs and the aspirations of the common man.

LOUIS LEFEBER

3

Normative problems and social issues in regional analysis

Planning deals with problems of social organization and, hence, it is intrinsically normative. At the same time, of all the social sciences, only economics has developed a normative theory. It is inadequate, however, for planning changes involving structural transformation: The normative approach of economics is confined to the analysis of marginal changes in a context where the social organization and the institutional framework are implicitly given. Furthermore, the only means for conflict resolution offered by economics is the price mechanism of a purely competitive market organization which functions in a mythical setting independently from the resolution of the primary and most difficult social conflicts relating to privilege and income distribution. In the context of regional planning the normative element is often represented by interregional equity as a long-run desideratum. However, interregional equity need not and frequently does not translate itself into intraregional or interpersonal equity which is the most relevant issue for the attainment of social justice. This is not to say that preoccupation with interpersonal equity is necessarily precluded from the normative judgement of regional planners. But they are not indifferent to the fact that their successes qua planners are measured relative to the tangible material progress attained in other regions. Furthermore, their judgement in project selection may be more influenced by interregional rivalry in the matter of obtaining an appropriate share of the national resources than by a pressing need to attain intraregional equity. This tendency to subordinate interpersonal social justice to interregional considerations is reinforced first by the belief (supported by neoclassical economic planning theories) that regional economic growth may be adversely affected by egalitarian income distribution, and that in any case, regional growth leads to or brings about improved interpersonal income

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distribution; second by the fact that egalitarian social and economic policies do not necessarily coincide with the vested interests of local and regional decision makers and other privileged groups whose values and politics can influence the planning effort and determine the success of implementation. I have discussed the connection between development and income distribution elsewhere (see, e.g., O n the paradigm for economic development' in World development, Oxford, January 1974); here it is sufficient to point out that if economic growth is dependent on the demand pull generated by the lower income groups (as is the case with staples), improvement of income distribution is a sine qua non for motivating growth and development. As to the converse, i.e., the proposition that economic growth brings about or leads to the betterment of income distribution, the history of capitalist development seems to support it, but only in a context where the scarcity of resources, particularly of land, was not a binding constraint. Today, when opportunities for settling resourcerich new areas no longer exist, the evidence seems to indicate that growth by itself is not sufficient to redistribute income to the lowest income groups even in such industrially advanced market economies as the United States or Canada. Concerning the conflict between vested interests and egalitarian social policies, regional planners undoubtedly incorporate their normative judgements with respect to income distribution into their plans only to the extent that they are also endorsed by political bodies or decision makers. Still, the institutions needed for the implementation of plans with egalitarian goals may not be there, or may not be adequate for the task. The greater the social change called for or implied by the plan, the greater the danger that the plan will fail because the political or social structure which has led to the conditions to be changed by planning cannot be expected to generate the tools for its own transformation. This is so because institutional organization itself is not value free: The functioning of any institution is not without its own normative requirements or rules which may be very different from those which have led to its creation. As pointed out by Andre Beteille (see his Chapter 7 in Lefeber and DattaChaudhuri, Regional development: Experiences and prospects in South and South East Asia. Mouton, The Hague, 1971), 'organizations develop their own hierarchies and concerns for status which often distort the very ends which they are designed to achieve'. This is one of the reasons that economic planners put their faith in

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21

some variety of market or price mechanism as one of the suitable instruments for plan implementation. (The price mechanism is, of course, crippled if activities or transactions do not go through the market, as is the case with environmental and other technical externalities. Hence, it must be supplemented with suitable tax-subsidy schemes and/or other regulatory devices.) But even an improved price mechanism may work against the egalitarian purposes of planned development: If labour is relatively abundant, as is the case in poor countries, the price mechanism is bound to favour the property owner and, hence, it tends to redistribute income in favour of the rich. Furthermore, the price mechanism cannot resolve conflicts, such as recur at each harvest between farmer, resident landless labour and migrant labour, or in any other situation where the conflicting purposes of all participants can be justified by the economic or social purposes represented by the plan, but cannot be reconciled without rewriting the social contract. The point is that the transformation of selfish interest into social harmony - which Adam Smith expected from his 'impersonal system of perfect liberty' - can be expected to take place only in a static society where if bliss is not yet attained, each group or person finds his expectations with respect to role and status acceptable. If this is not the case, i.e., if significant segments of society are dissatisfied with the inequality of their position and inferior expectations, planning for egalitarian development does require the rewriting of the social contract, even if the desired transformation is expected to be gradual. In any case, plans with egalitarian ends must be convincing both to those who are expected to yield their privileged social or income position and to those who are expected to gain. We do not know what combination of factors or circumstances lend credibility to the planning of social transformation; we lack a general theory of social dynamics and conflict resolution. Recent experience in the developing nations indicates, however, that unless there is a sense of conviction that the plan will succeed, it is likely to fail even when feasible from a techno-economic point of view, because without the expectation of success social cooperation cannot be obtained and the required institutions cannot be built or made to function in the social interest.

BOHDAN J. GRUCHMAN*

4

Regional policy and planning in social perspective: A planner's point of view

Until recently the dominant approach to social aspects of regional development was that of researchers. The social aspects were singled out from other developmental phenomena and subjected to detailed analysis in order to study their nature and to draw meaningful conclusions. A body of knowledge accumulated in this way will create foundations for a new research specialization - regional sociology. Although one might wish that this process could be accelerated and thus a better knowledge of social aspects of regional development be obtained, a word of caution is in order here. If development of regional sociology follows the example of regional economics, which is already a well-established branch of economics, then we shall witness another splitting-up of a research subject which exists as one entity. Treating various aspects of regional development separately will certainly bring many positive detailed results, but if the interdisciplinary aspects are ignored it could also result in little advancement of knowledge as to the over-all nature of the development process in regions. Regional policy-makers and planners who have to approach the problem in its entirety would not gain much from such a one-sided approach in their normative tasks. One wonders whether a return to 'old fashioned' political economy, which is much broader than contemporary economics, would not be in place here. Development within the latter of a new branch, 'the political economy of regional development', could perhaps bridge the interdisciplinary gap and focus our attention on the mutual influence of economic, social and political phenomena in development. On a national scale, with its vast scope of development problems and broad institutional * The views and opinions expressed in this note are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations Organization with which the author was connected in the period 1972-1974.

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base, the need for such an approach may not be self-evident to many. However, in a regional setting where the same aspects appear in a much smaller framework and a much more direct mutual interdependence, the need for a comprehensive treatment of development seems to be more urgent. Such an approach would certainly greatly help regional planners who, as opposed to sectoral planners, cannot afford to treat development of regions in a one-sector or one-aspect fashion. It is the very nature of regional policy and planning which demands that the many-sided phenomenon of regional development be treated in a comprehensive manner. 1 Of course, this does not mean that each aspect of regional development deserves exactly the same degree of attention in policy and planning. Depending upon the concrete circumstances, some aspects are more crucial to over-all development of particular regions than others. However, it is only in light of a broad approach that this can be determined and appropriately acted upon. It is nowadays generally agreed that the main aim of development is the achievement of social goals however defined (e.g., better and more just income distribution, securing jobs for all able to work, higher level of living).2 Regional development is no exception to this. Social goals of regional development are usually attainable through a variety of economic or social measures. In a somewhat simplifying statement, it could be said that social goals are only in a limited way attainable through direct social measures (such as social security benefits, school admission rules favouring the poor and underprivileged, etc.). What contributes most to their implementation are various economic measures appropriately applied. These measures can be put most efficiently to use if their application is effectuated from the national point of view. Regional calculations of resource allocations are only the most effective nationally if there is no other region in which the same resources could bring better results.3 If the maximum effectiveness of economic measures can be determined only nationally, their contribution to the attainment of social goals can best and most comprehensively be measured locally. It is at that level that all effects of development measures, those expected and unexpected, can 1. Recently, an entire issue of the journal International Social Development Review was devoted to that point. See U N (1972a). 2. The latest expression of this can be found, for example, in U N (1973). 3. Obviously, limited mobility of some resources restricts the general application of this statement.

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be analysed in a concrete local environment. Because of a great diversity of local situations, the same measure applied to different localities may bring considerably different results. These factors cannot be taken into full account at the national level. Thus, in guiding regional development, we are confronted with a situation in which two viewpoints play a crucial role: that at the national level with regard to nationally most effective allocation of resources and that at the local level where the most comprehensive assessment can be made as to the advancement of social goals of development. Both levels are vital for a proper regional policy and plan formulation and implementation. Only those systems of planning and decision-making which combine both meet the requirements for a socially responsible system of development guidance. In order to be able to deal with the interrelated economic and social phenomena of regional development the regional policy-makers and planners must be equipped with proper analytical and planning instruments. Two such instruments relevant to particular stages of the regional planning process seem to be most promising - the social indicators and socio-economic coefficients. The first are most relevant to the analytical stage of regional planning and also to the implementation stage. The coefficients are particularly necessary in the planning-programming stage. From the planners' point of view the recent developments in the field of social indicators are most welcome ones (see, e.g., Plessas & Fein, 1972; or Gostkowski, 1972). Although much work remains still to be done on them, their development promises to provide planners with a much needed quantitative insight into important social phenomena, thus catching up with the role already played in planning by economic indicators. The usefulness of social indicators for regional planning would be greatly enhanced if they could be analysed in correlation with the economic indicators. This requires that they be generated simultaneously with the latter and presented in a state of aggregation which would allow meaningful correlation and regression operations among themselves and vis-d-vis the economic indicators. In the analytical stage of regional planning when the past development and the existing situation are being thoroughly assessed as the basis for a subsequent planning and programming stage, the range of social indicators should be as broad as possible. They should cover both the 'flow' as well as the 'stock' aspects of social phenomena. During the plan implementation stage the social indicators play a monitoring function, hence can be restricted to major development issues

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and have an operational character (as opposed to their analytical nature in the previously discussed stage). Of particular importance here are those which monitor progress at the local level.4 The socio-economic coefficients constitute a different category from the above-mentioned indicators. One could compare their role in the planning process to that played by the technical coefficients in an input-output procedure. Their function is to translate inputs mostly, but not exclusively, of an economic nature into outputs of both economic and social character. Such coefficients are needed in two sub-activities of the planning-programming stage: firstly, when social goals of development are translated into policy objectives and planning targets, and secondly when economic and social consequences of alternative programmes and projects are evaluated. Given the often very complex nature of causal relationships between social and economic phenomena, development of the socioeconomic coefficients is an extremely difficult task which will require a considerable amount of further studies.5 However, their application to regional planning appears to be very necessary if we wish it to be genuinely 'unified'. Even with all conceivable advancement in the development of social indicators and socio-economic coefficients most probably we will not be able to measure with them all social phenomena connected with development. Certain aspects will remain unmeasurable or their measurement will be too costly or time-consuming or will become too subjective to be fully useful in the planning and policy-making process. Besides, with respect to quantifiable phenomena, because of the predominant microorientation of the latter, indicators and coefficients lose considerably their analytical qualtity when summarized over larger areas in order to be transmitted to the central decision-making levels. In order to avoid this and to create conditions for taking into account in decision-making the unquantifiable social phenomena as well, there seems to be only one solution - that of decentralizing the regional policy formulation and planning process as far as feasible and retaining at the centre only key development decisions pertaining to all regions and segments of the economy. This would mean the shifting of numerous less general decisions 4. A research project was recently launched at the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development in Geneva which focuses on measurement of real progress at the local level. See UN (1972b). 5. Socio-economic coefficients are proposed, i.a., by R. Stone (1971); see also UN (1974).

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relevant to many social aspects to the lower levels at which the social situation can be perceived in its entirety and where it can be tied with greater precision to other phenomena of development. At the lower levels it is also easier for the population to participate in the development planning process. With popular participation in decision-making relevant to regional development a number of social issues can find an efficient and speedy solution.

REFERENCES

Gostkowski, Z. (Ed.) (1972) Towards a system of human resources indicators for less developed countries. Papers prepared for a UNESCO research project. Wroclaw, The Polish Academy of Sciences Press, Ossolineum. Plessas, D. J., and Fein, R. (1972) An evolution of social indicators, Journal of the American Institute of Planners. January. Stone, R. (1971) Demographic accounting and model building. Paris, OECD. United Nations (UN) (1972a) Department of Economic and Social Affairs. International Social Development Review (New York), No. 4. Regional socio-economic development. (1972b) Research Institute for Social Development. Report of the Board on its activities in 1971 and 1972. Prepared for the ECOSOC Commission for Social Development at its 23rd session. Document No. E/CN.5/489. (1973) Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The international development strategy. First over-all review and appraisal of issues and policies. Report of the Secretary-General. New York. (1974) Towards a system of social and demographic statistics. Document No. SF/STAT. 68. 24 July. Preliminary version.

PAUL DREWE

5

Regional policy as social planning

REGIONS

Is it meaningful to look at our world in terms of regions? At first sight, this seems to be a question which can be answered rather easily: If regions were meaningless there would be no regional policy. But this does not really answer our question unless we can tell why we have a regional policy. It is the existence of considerable regional differences in socioeconomic performance which gives rise to interventions aiming at balancing them to some extent. If regions would not matter, regional deviations from the national average of performance would be reduced to a minimum. Hence there would be no real incentives for regional policy. This, in fact, is independent of the yardstick used and commonly agreed upon to measure socio-economic development. The fallacy of national average may extend to popular measures such as per capita GNP as well as to emerging social indicators as 'indicators of change in basic well-being' (OECD). Generalizing, we can say that societies tend to a polarized development, polarized between (changing) core and peripheral areas (cf. Friedmann, 1969a). This tendency may be more pronounced in industrializing countries where it is closely connected with nation-forming itself. Nationforming in highly industrialized societies has come to an end. What is important here is the ongoing process of urbanization manifesting itself in an outgrowth of existing urban centers. We would like to defend the working-hypothesis that polarized socioeconomic development is man-made, implying that we can mould our future through regional policy (we agree with Palme, 1972). Controlling or steering the national urbanization process, however, requires knowledge about the behavioral forces underlying spatial variations in perform-

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ance. That is the essence of 'regional policy as social planning'. Engaging in action-oriented research, i.e., research which aims at providing know-how necessary to turn regional policy from trial and error into planning, we encounter an intricate problem. Regions for which planning should be done (policy regions) do not necessarily coincide either with the spatial context relevant to behavioral interactions underlying variations in performance to be controlled (functional or nodal regions) or with regions 'where the distribution of certain variables is, to some specified degree, homogeneous and distinct from neighbouring regions' (uniform or formal regions) (Barras et al., 1971, p. 139). Adopting a purely scientific approach to such a lack of conformity between policy and functional (uniform) regions, one could advocate an 'objective' and systematic demarcation of areas as against 'areas designed for specific planning and/or administrative tasks, and areas whose boundaries are "historical"' (Barras et al., 1971). Such a scientific approach is technically feasible given techniques such as factor analysis and given modern computer facilities (see, e.g., Steiner, 1965) although constrained by data availability. But a regional demarcation using advanced 'objective' methods remains necessarily 'subjective', i.e., dependent upon the demarcation criteria chosen by the researcher (see Johnston, 1968) and will probably vary over time. Aside from that, the purely scientific neglect of political realities disqualifies subsequent research results as guidelines for action. If, on the other hand, alternative functional (uniform) areas for analysis are rigidly dispensed with, then not only does information provided for practitioners become limited or even unreliable beyond necessity but also the possibility of recommending political-administrative reforms, through which political boundaries might be adjusted to the spatial interaction system studied, is missed. Fortunately, there are ways of avoiding the drawbacks of extreme approaches. In case the functional or uniform regions cross the boundaries of political jurisdictions (underbounding), as journey-to-work and market areas often do, analysis should cover the greater region. Research results, however, should be translated into recommendations or warnings for the planning region, sometimes accompanied by reform proposals such as community-consolidation proposals for 'more meaningful' policy regions. Should there be several interaction systems, say, housing market areas, within the same jurisdiction (overbounding), then either the whole jurisdiction can be studied or each interaction system separately (or an approach can be chosen compromising between these two). Once again, neither need standards of

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good empirical research be violated nor need guidelines for action be restricted unnecessarily.

GOALS - MEANINGS AND MAKERS

So far we have been referring to goals for regional action in very broad terms only. It is time now to be more specific about them. What kind of goals are they exactly? Socio-economic performance remains an empty formula until it is filled with meaning. The questions are: What meaning and by whom is it determined? Our definition of regional policy already implies that we do not limit our view of regional policy to that of a special appendix to overall policy concerns, delineated by some limited supplementary objectives and a typical pack of tools.1 We were talking about controlling or steering the national urbanization process with regard to regional deviations from the national average of performance. This implies a more comprehensive view, starting with the meaning of 'progress' on the national level, followed by the spatial repercussion of almost all overall policy concerns, and the distribution of 'progress' in space. Maximum per capita income (GNP) has been widely accepted as a measure of progress in highly industrialized societies of the Western European type by both decision-makers and the majority of the population. In the course of industrialization the goal has been somewhat refined in terms of stability (urging full employment and price stability). Moreover, the present system differs from 'early capitalism' in that it has incorporated various interventions in favor of those who cannot support themselves economically for various reasons. This has led to the flexible concept of minimum standard of living which has been added to the goal of maximum income. In other words, one has extended the goals to the dimension of income distribution, and one has adopted the idea of limited income redistribution. National (and more recently also regional) economic accounts have been developed in order to measure the performance of highly industrialized Western societies. But there have always been 'heretics' in these societies, too. They have emphasized the major weakness of goals like maximum GNP: its neglect of social costs of private enterprise. 'Social 1. A typical document reflecting such a view is, e.g., OECD (1970). See also Europäische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft (1964).

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costs' are defined 'as the divergence between the private costs borne by a firm or individual entrepreneur and the costs to others, or to the community, which such individuals generate, but do not bear' (Bell). These costs are not subtracted from the established measures of society performance. Of course social costs of private or even public enterprise do not tell the full story of inadequacies of GNP as an indicator of progress. Social costs of consumption exist as well, as a look at the 'materials balance' unmistakably shows (cf. Ayres & Kneese, 1969). On the other hand an account of society's importance for men should include social benefits, too. The basic idea of social costs has led some people to reject the whole system while others conceived reforms within the same system. Among the 'conscientious objectors' to the system was the father of the idea, Sismondi (1827), and Marx, of course not just because of pollution but because of 'social costs' in a wider sense. Those propagating the idea of social costs basically within the system, Pigou (1920) and later on Kapp (1950) and Galbraith (1958), did not succeed either in theory or in politics in gaining the same publicity for their 'externalities' as the supporters of 'maximum income' did. Some even call it a 'new economic Philistinism' which makes it so hard for them to gain acceptance or, what is even more important, to introduce social cost considerations into actual decision-making. 'In short, national economic accounting has promoted a "new Philistinism" - an approach to life based on the principle of using monetary units as the common denominator of all that is important in human life. The "new Philistinism" shows up in different forms: 1. The cost-benefit analysts who recognize no benefits (or disbenefits) that cannot be expressed in dollars and cents. 2. The econometricians still operating on the ludicrous premise that there is, or should be, a "single-valued, objective welfare function" by which one could judge alternative courses of action ...' (Gross, 1967, pp. 167-168). At present we witness a new movement toward 'social reporting (or its virtual synonyms: social indicators, social accounting, social intelligence)' (Duncan) which started in the United States. The Johnson administration even left a first trial of a social report behind, trying to measure the performance of the American society not only in terms of GNP (HEW, 1969; Pub. Int., 1969). Similarly a wider range of goals for development can be (and already has been) formulated (earlier) for the regional level by PerlofF (1965) who lists the following goal areas: 1. jobs and incomes of families;

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2. financial support to those who cannot become economically selfsupporting; 3. emotional support for individuals and family groups who need it; 4. a high level of social services, particularly education and health; 5. decent housing and a satisfying physical environment for all families; 6. elimination of racial discrimination. Only recently the movement has been propagated throughout the world mainly thanks to the 'Report for the Club of Rome Project', an alarming trend extrapolation which demonstrates the 'limits to growth' and even to human existence on a world scale - if things go on like they used to (Meadows, 1972). There are two outstanding examples among the numerous reactions provoked by this report and by similar studies. First, there is the United Nation conference held at Stockholm (cf. Ward & Dubos, 1972), and then there is the social indicator program started by OECD. The latter, although at an early stage, deserves our special attention because OECD for quite some time now has acted as a multinational pacemaker in the field of yardsticks for national 'progress'. Most of OECD's policy recommendations, however, have been predominantly 'growth-oriented'. Now the OECD Council at Ministerial level has determined 'to devote more attention to how the extra wealth which the growth process creates may be better directed to improvement of the quality of life and the meeting of social aspirations' (OECD, 1971). The social indicator program starts with a selection and definition of social concerns to be followed by the development of statistical indicators. Work is envisaged covering seven areas of social concern (OECD, 1971): 1. personal health and safety; 2. personal development and intellectual and cultural enrichment through learning; 3. occupational development and satisfaction; 4. time and leisure; 5. command over goods and services; 6. the physical environment; 7. the social environment [including, e.g., demographic concerns]. Thinking about social indicators may well be understood as a social movement, the survival of which is by no means sure, a survival which leads from manifestos to statistical indicators and to an active part of both in actual political decision-making. Measurement problems, however, are tremendous. Some judges of the research side of the movement are already rather pessimistic in their evaluation of the state-of-the-art, con-

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eluding, for example, that'... the field is characterized by a great deal of peripheral verbosity ...' (Plessas & Fein, 1972, p. 43). Measurement problems center around two aspects of 'indicators of change in basic wellbeing': the gauging of'basic well-being' and of 'change'. Gross (1967, p. 220) has referred to the first aspect as 'mysteries of interest-satisfaction' or 'happiness': 'It includes the disembodied satisfactions dealt with by economists and mathematicians under the name of welfare, benefits, utility, utiles, or (in the hard language of game theorists) "pay offs"'. For the practitioners Gross concludes: 'Since satisfactions and dissatisfactions are almost impossible to observe directly, we must use a wide variety of "surrogates", that is, indirect indicators that serve us as quantitative substitutes or representatives of the phenomena we want to identify or measure: 1. the choices made among various alternatives; 2. the monetary payments for services or goods that may be purchased (in most circumstances, a specialized form of choice); 3. opinions expressed, whether solicited or unsolicited, and 4. the presumed results of any activity' (p. 221; cf. Gross, 1964, esp. pp. 530-537). Another close surrogate is time, for example, the amount of discretionary time spent on various activities. There are also proposals to concentrate on measuring social change during the next steps: '..."trend studies" will be a suitable synonym for "measurement of social change" ... Broadly speaking, he who would measure change has three options. He may refer to existing sources of observations on the variables of interest, he may make new observations, or he may rely on a combination of the two procedures ("replication of baseline studies")' (Duncan, 1969b, p. 10). We agree with Duncan on the last option (which unfortunately is not very popular among researchers) as deserving priority, which of course does not imply a refusal of alternative ways of measuring change. But problems of measuring social change are not entirely due to the intricacy of the subject matter. If we dispose today of better economic statistics, at least at the national (accounting) level, this is also a political result,2 or the result of a society marked by the priority of economic development, which is reflected in per capita GNP being performance yardstick number one. 2. For an excellent analysis of this and other aspects of measurement see Biderman (1967b).

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With increasing income, hence diminishing marginal returns to additional income, other aspects of welfare may become more important. A goal survey held for the Los Angeles Master Plan (L.A. Goals Council, esp. p. 89), for example, showed that the richer population at large was far more concerned about social costs such as air-pollution ('get rid of smog') than the poorer Negro population whose interests centered around housing ('provide more low-cost housing') and above all employment ('develop more employment areas'). Here we are faced with different welfare levels within the same (highly segregated) society (cf. Rokeach & Parker, 1970). What about different levels of economic welfare in different societies, say, the North-South division in the development of our world? A certain demonstration effect of Western welfare has already produced a certain acculturation of developing countries as far as economic priorities in development are concerned. But we also witness numerous failures in development aid which should warn us against planning the development of the southern hemisphere simply by applying our 'social anthropology' to their societies which are then confronted with the import of both our definition of 'progress' and our planning tools. The sequence - first, unrestrained capitalism, then interventions within the system, and, finally, a certain revival of older social considerations - cannot claim universal validity for all countries. Industrializing societies of today may opt for the second phase to be already adopted during the take-off. Besides, serious environmental problems like those which gave rise to the social indicator movement in highly industrialized nations show up in Third World societies, too, even at a comparatively low level of industrialization. Thus it is not too surprising that some of the latter envisage a radically different sequence of development. Returning to the more familiar highly industrialized societies it would be a big mistake to overlook that they have built up strong vested interests during their long tradition of economic priorities. These vested interests produce resistance against changes of cultural values, among which maximum GNP. That points to our second question with regard to goals for regional development. Who is going to decide about their meaning? Political decision-makers, professional planners, or the population at large? Societies which claim to be democratic will principally reject any attempt to derive goals from other sources than 'the people'. However, that voters' sovereignty is by no means distorted by delegating the power to implement

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their goals to elected leaders has been recognized as an ideology. The situation is similar to a well-known position of normative economics asserting that sovereign consumers plus a market economy guarantee maximum (optimum) welfare. But the production of goods and services rather tends to go together with a 'production' of the needs they are meant to satisfy. Factors such as the apathy of those for whom the planning is done, vested interests of leaders, and a monopoly of control favor oligarchies: political structures which notoriously produce distortions of peoples' goals. Oligarchies are not completely unavoidable, but they constitute a permanent danger to democratic societies, including their local (regional) level. For a decade or two, students of (mainly American) communities have been engaged in a controversy about whether communities are either oligarchic (with a small group of decision-makers controlling all important issues) or democratic, i.e., pluralistic (varying elites with varying constituencies controlling varying decisions).3 More recently the so-called power-elite controversy has resulted in a more realistic view of communities. This view considers a pluralistic-monolithic continuum of community power structures. It also considers the position of a given community on this continuum as dependent upon a number of demographic, economic, legal, and cultural variables.4 The planner, as a professional expert, plays an intervening role in the local (regional) decision-making process. His impact will, among other factors, be influenced by how he defines his own role and by how he has been trained. According to the classical model and conventional planning education, planners restrict their expertise to the elaboration of alternative solutions while leaving both the decision and the implementation to the politicians. This practice has led to many doubts about the adequate representation of those for whom the planning finally is done. Today a new model for the role of planners is emerging which may alter and strengthen their impact in future, once it has become an integral part of planning education.5 According to this new model the planner is assuming his role as an actor (or agent of social change) during the entire process of political decision-making including plan implementation, while he is 3. This substantive controversy has been accompanied by a debate about the best methodological way of identifying local power holders, compare the author (1967). Abstracts from a large number of community power studies have been compiled by Press (1962). 4. For a first presentation of this approach see Clark (1965). 5. The emergence of this new role definition can be best followed by studying the Journal of the American Institute of Planners during the past five years or so.

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engaged in a collaborative relationship to his 'clients' trying to secure community participation and, if necessary, acting as his clients' advocate. This planner-client interaction is crucial as empirical studies, for example, about the role of architect-planners reveal. The latter rather tend to disagree with clients, e.g., on ratings of neighborhood quality. Disagreement may decrease, however, with increasing educational level of clients (see Lansing & Marans, 1969). A general outline of the social triangle clients-planner-community decision network is given by Bolan (1971).

ACTION-ORIENTED SOCIAL RESEARCH - BASIC PROBLEMS

A survival of the social indicator movement, depending upon a proper internalization and institutionalization of its concerns, will enrich the existing array of goals for regional action. Next in line comes the study of their feasibility. If social research is to serve regional policy, i.e., if it is to become action-oriented, it must focus on understanding the process of regional socio-economic development which includes its description and explanation, its prediction, and, last not least, its control. Friedmann (1970) distinguishes five basic processes of urbanization or modernization making up for polarized development: emergent innovations, diffusion of innovations,6 control of decisions, migration of population, and (capital) investment. These five processes can be seen as the main movers of national urbanization, thus forming an important context for an understanding of processes at lower spatial levels and in various sectors of society for which a special policy and planning are set up. The five most prominent sectors to be distinguished with regard to regional policy, namely, manpower, housing, urban and leisure-time amenities, transportation and environment, are illustrated in Figure 1, revealing their mutual interdependence. Population is implicitly treated as the backbone for demand in the sectors mentioned above. Complexity is added when we consider that the interplay of sectors takes place between 'regional' units at the same spatial level as well as between units belonging to different levels. Horizontal and vertical spatial interdependencies exist with regard to policy regions and uniform or functional 6. Research into this topic has been thoroughly reviewed by Brown (1968, 1969). For the individual level compare Rogers (1964).

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38

LABOR MARKET

Figure 1. Prominent sectors of regional policy and their interrelation

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regions, too. In the case of the Federal Republic of Germany, ten major spatial levels of aggregation (disaggregation) can be and usually are distinguished (see Figure 2), leaving international interdependencies aside.7 Some of these units are independent of the particular political structure. A distinction between a national, some regional, a local, and the individual (household) level may be considered to be 'universal'. Action-oriented Bund

National Regional Land Regierungsbezirk Kreis Gemeinde

Local

Stadtteil Stadtbezirk Baublock Blockseite Individuum (Haushalt) Individual Figure 2. Horizontal and vertical spatial interdependencies Republic of Germany

the case of the Federal

research into such a complex system, involving its description, explanation, prediction, and control, encounters a number of basic problems. We would like to review some of the most pertinent obstacles before we move on to workable approaches, i.e., to what has been actually done and to what could be done in the field coping with these obstacles. Troubles already start with pure description. The data base is normally insufficient as judged against present demands made by practitioners, 7. International dependencies are part of the system. The fallacy of treating nations as closed systems is increasingly witnessed in areas such as business cycles, immigration of foreign workers, (world dynamics of) environmental damages, to quote only some spectacular examples.

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especially as far as individual (household) data and social indicators are concerned. Description must not be neglected or treated as of secondary importance because data collection, including storage and processing, constrains data analysis. And reliability (or formal precision) of measurement procedures conditions validity of measurement results. Summing up the factors causing a deficient data base, we only have to repeat the major conclusions of our diagnosis concerning measurement problems of social indicators. Troubles with the data base are not only connected with complexity of the subject matter, as compared to the present state-of-the art of measurement techniques, but also with political desirability of statistical indicators. Comparing nations, Scheuch (1969, p. 133) has, for example, concluded that: 'In government (and political sociology), preference for macro-theories and aggregate data is specifically connected to the smaller relevance of individual citizens for political processes, and to the greater relevance of planning done and of decisions made on the level of aggregates.' Thus political desirability may well extend to attempts of explanation and control. This is another way of saying that description, explanation, control (and we can also add prediction) are interdependent, reducing the distinction between these aspects of action-oriented research to a purely didactic device. The interactions portrayed in Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the fundamental problem for explanation. If explanation 'aims at the growth of common sense knowledge by using formalised methods for accepting or rejecting theories' (Barras et al), the problem can be specified in terms of formalized methods as one that cannot be adequately tackled by a 'single-equation linear model' but rather asks for a 'simultaneous-equation system'.8 Moving from formalized methods to theories, cybernetic and generalsystem approaches 9 seem to be specially suited to an explanatory problem characterized by mutual (sectoral and spatial) interdependence. All the essentials of the notion of system10 are given here: elements, their inter8. Compare Johnston (1963). The formalized methods and the viewpoint referred to are by no means restricted to economics. The theory of econometrics is rather relevant to social research problems in general. 9. An informative review of these approaches has been compiled by McLoughlin and Webster (1970). 10. 'In general, a system is a set of entities (real or conceptual, material or nonmaterial) which interact one with another so as to form an identifiable whole. An open system has a specified environment with which it interacts; in the absence of an environment (or any interaction with it) the system is said to be closed' (McLoughlin & Webster, 1970, p. 371).

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action, a resolution level, and an environment. By pointing to the subjectivity of ('objective') classification methods earlier, we have already expressed that we share another basic postulate of systems analysis, namely, that'... the identification of a system (and its super-systems and sub-systems) is not value-free but depends upon the purposes of the investigator which may include the desire to control the system' (McLoughlin & Webster, 1970, p. 372). While cybernetic and general-system approaches are principally useful for urban and regional research, it is often only a step-by-step approach which is actually feasible. There is a growing consensus among modelbuilders to start with rather simplified pictures of the real world, a consensus which is based on data and on theoretical considerations, because the 'process of going from simple models (first approximations) to more general ones (second and later approximations) is in fact the only way in which we can gain and extend useful knowledge. To refuse to consider simple models in a new subject because, after all, the world is a very complicated place, is sheer nihilism and if persisted in, effectively brings any branch of science to a standstill' (Stone). But even with simple explanations we must carefully avoid pitfalls, two of which will be touched upon here even if it is only briefly. First, there are the 'ecological fallacies'11 which are related to aggregation (disaggregation) or what is called in terms of system analysis the 'resolution level'. Fallacies are committed when the level of inference (interpretation) does not correspond with the level of observation (explanation). This holds for all levels described in Figure 2, but the most obvious cases are those where either inferences about individual behavior are drawn from explanations related to spatial aggregates (ecological fallacy) or, vice versa, explanations referring to aggregates are derived from explanations of individual behavior (individualistic fallacy). The rule that the level of inference should equal the level of observation, however, is not an absolute one. It has been demonstrated with the help of covariance theorems that an ecological fallacy can be avoided by rearranging the knowledge, provided additional information such as the within-region correlation is known. Additional knowledge of this kind is scarce so that the rule retains its importance most of the time. Violation of the rule means running the risk of basing guidelines for regional action on false, misleading, or spurious explanations. This should be strong enough an 11. For an instructive treatment of this topic see, for example, Alker (1969).

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incentive to try out hypotheses on more than one resolution level (multilevel analysis) and/or the promising avenue of formulating and testing various cross-level hypotheses (compare, a.o., Boudon, 1967). Another important pitfall opens up with investigators basing their attempts of explanation on the axioms of neo-classic economics: perfect knowledge (the axiom with regard to information), maximization of the goal function (as an axiom of rationality) and differential functions (connecting alternative courses of action and decision outcome).12 He who starts from these axioms finds the way toward an empirical explanation (an explanation which runs the risk of being rejected) blocked. 'Theories' of the neo-classic brand may nevertheless be used for evaluation purposes, as tools which can aid the elaboration of proposals for 'rational' ('optimal') regional action, provided one does not mind the one-sided definition of 'rationality' the neo-classic approach implies: Neo-classic rationality is just one possibility among a multitude of others.13 There are also basic problems of prediction: methodological and substantive ones. It is essential 'that values for the independent variables, needed to implement the forecast, can be obtained by some reasonable procedure' (Lowry). Lowry states a problem which already exists for the present (and for explanation). But there will be even more errors with regard to a distant future, errors which, unfortunately, tend to cumulate. Alonso (1968) has analyzed this tricky situation, and he recommends that 'predicting best with imperfect data' should proceed by simpler models. A conclusion such as '[i]n general, poorer data call for simpler models' also holds for explanation. Moving from methodological to substantive issues of prediction, the development of 'social forecasting' should be brought to attention (see Duncan, 1969a). The concept of social forecasting stresses the social function of predicting while playing down its more or less futile attempt at precision. Precision in predicting future events is already jeopardized by the nature of the subject matter, although we have to distinguish varying degrees of predictability ranging from a definite prediction for specific data to improbabilities and completely unanticipated events.14 But 12. For a more detailed elaboration of these axioms and the following conclusion see Kade (1962). 13. An excellent review of the evaluation methodology relevant here is provided by Lichfield (1970). 14. With varying degrees of predictability one can also think of varying research provisions to cope with future events. See Biderman (1967a).

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even if striving for predicting future events turns out to be feasible, one may still doubt its usefulness. This is where the social function comes into play. Forecasts may point to a future problem which already exists (and will be aggravated) or which will emerge - if things go on like they used to. The forecast itself may trigger off action (by the population at large or by political decision-makers) which may either support (selffulfilling prophecy) or counteract (self-destroying prophecy) the predicted course of events, for if men define situations as real, they may become real under certain circumstances (cf. Merton, 1961, esp. pp. 421-436). We will all be in a position to study this mechanism at a large scale given the prediction implied in the 'Report for the Club of Rome Project'. Although the outcome is open, our hope is that it may finally turn out to be a self-destroying prophecy. Logically speaking, control is just one way of applying empirical propositions. Goals for (regional) action must be given from outside the realm of pure science. There is no logical way of deriving them from statements about facts. But the elementary principles of the philosophy of science alone provide a poor basis for planning. This does not mean that the logical rules of the game should be altogether abandoned. What is needed, however, is special know-how or research covering the context of application, assuming that the investigator does not confine his role to simply delivering alternatives. Acting as an agent of social change trying to secure community participation or acting as his clients' advocate requires knowledge, empirically corroborated, about items such as determinants of decision outcome, factors influencing both planner-client interaction and the impact of the client-planner team on the community decision network, factors affecting the use of new techniques in planning agencies, the technology of strategic choice, lessons of experience concerning the implementation of urban-regional development policies, to quote only some of the areas which have already been investigated. Research into topics like those mentioned above can also provide, as some kind of valuable 'by-product', a better insight into social structures in general because 'if you want to know how things really are - try to change them' as Lewin advises.

ACTION-ORIENTED SOCIAL RESEARCH - STEPPING STONES

To give a detailed account of actual (and potential) approaches, useful as guidelines for regional policy goes beyond the limits of this article. We

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can only review theoretical achievements in general lines. There is nothing final about the contributions to be sketched here. They are nothing more but also nothing less than stepping stones. The approaches reviewed cover the sectors distinguished in Figure 1, including population, and the 'theory of social planning', i.e., theory and research related to control or planning itself. As we said before, population is the basis of all sectors. Matrix analysis of interregional population growth and distribution (cf. Rogers, 1968) provides an appropriate tool for description and forecasting. Dependent upon data availability we can either construct a 'component-of-change model' (with total births, deaths, in- and out-migration) or a 'cohortsurvival model' (with total components broken down by sex and age, for example). One of the advantages of a matrix analysis is that it allows the calculation of intervention rates which turns the model into a policy model.15 Feasibility of intervention, however, remains to be determined outside the system. This is another way of saying that matrix analysis provides just a framework for explanation but not a theory of natural population growth and migration. With regard to natural growth, trend extrapolations are more widely used than tested propositions explaining fertility and mortality behavior. For a checklist of variables related to birth and death from which such propositions could be derived see Willis (1968). It seems, nevertheless, that real progress, especially in the field of fertility change, can only be reached through cross-national comparison which reveals ethnical and social contexts of fertility (cf. Yuan Tien, 1970). Since the classical gravity models of migration have been built, the tool box of models displays a rapid growth.16 The most promising 'later approximations' of migration aggregates have incorporated concepts such as alternative or intervening opportunities, flow diversion, social distance, Monte Carlo simulation, and disaggregation by social status and position in the life-cycle. Models trying to explain individual migration decisions have progressed from 'migration differentials' to discriminant analysis and probabilistic approaches. There are even more individual methods from other fields awaiting application to moving-staying decisions. Here we run across a general feature of action-oriented social research. Sectoral

15. For the first trial of a real not just a fictitious 'political' application in the Netherlands, see the author (1971a). See also the author and Rodgers (1972b). 16. The state-of-art, mainly with regard to aggregate models to be used for prediction, has been reviewed recently by the author and Rodgers (1972a).

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thinking can lead to unnecessarily limiting our advisory capacity. We might do a better job in, say, explaining migration by not restricting our endeavors to a review of approaches bearing the label 'migration'. As lateral thinking often pays off one should consider the sectors introduced here only as a guide for orientation. In the manpower sector we have to deal with determinants of demand for and supply of jobs (labor) and their joint dependence on various spatial levels including individuals (households) and individual firms. Among those studies trying to summarize the findings, the work of Perloff et al. (1967) belongs to the 'classics'. Those involved in building complex transportation models usually deal with the more recent state-of-the-art with regard to the employment component of their models (see, e.g., Barras et al, 1971; Echenique, 1969). Given the basis of natural population growth and migration, explanation concerning the demand for jobs (supply of labor) is narrowed down to changes in activity rates and occupation (education) if we leave out the whole complex of job satisfaction and similar topics related to the individual (plant) level. Research into the supply of jobs (demand for labor) focuses on investment and its impact on employment. Special emphasis is placed on locational choice, i.e., the spatial dimension of employment-inducing investment which is a rather intricate phenomenon to explain. A major breakthrough in tackling locational choice has been achieved by extending the originally dominating notion of transportation costs to general communication costs. The latter can be either measured indirectly, as Klaassen and van Wickeren have done,17 or directly, as reviewed by Goddard (1971). Goddard reports research findings about office communications and office location which are just a partial aspect of the concept of contact systems whose importance is by no means restricted to the manpower sector but rather refers to regional development in general (see Thorngren, 1970). Basically 'we have three strategies open to us. We can seek to extend "classical" location theory with its emphasis upon optimization techniques ; we can seek to build a stochastic location theory; or we can take a cognitive-behavioral approach' (Harvey, 1969, pp. 37-38). Even if we keep in mind that 'these are not mutually exclusive or easily separated strategies' (Harvey), an extension of 'classical' location theory will in the first place serve future development of evaluation methodology.

17. The history of this indirect approach is documented by a series of studies starting with L. H. Klaassen (1967) and culminating, for the time being, in van Wickeren (1971).

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Contributions to understanding actual decision-making, however, can be expected primarily from stochastic and cognitive-behavioral models. The latter will be increasingly built around insights gained at the 'individual' level (compare, e.g., Townroe, 1971; Dierkes, 1969; Cyert & Marsh, 1963). Modeling the reaction of changing labor supply to changing labor demand and vice versa asks for a system (of at least two simultaneous or other equations which can be solved in different ways including simulation.18 One can either try to explain total employment growth or just the part of it which is typically 'regional'. If the second alternative is chosen, part of growth is usually attributed to factors which are effective on the national level.19 Hence the outcome of macro-models can be used as input on the regional level. The program for explanation pertaining to housing is similar to that of manpower as it concerns supply and demand and their joint dependence. To explain housing demand comes down to what is preferred (needed) and what can be realized (afforded) with a given supply of housing. Choice or constraint is unequally distributed among people so that breakdowns of demand by social class and position in the life-cycle become essential. Assessment of choice and constraint influencing actual demand for housing should proceed by confronting personal background, preference and related attitudes with relevant behavior, i.e., especially with residential migration (see, e.g., Rossi, 1955; Leslie & Richardson, 1961; Orcutt et ah, 1961; Maisel, 1966). But it is not only the movers that throw light on determinants of demand but frustrated stayers (as potential movers in the absence of given constraints), too. Studies about residential mobility so far have revealed the following main aspects of housing 'that matter': dwelling unit space, utilities (such as heating equipment), physical neighborhood structure (e.g., street noise), social neighborhood environment (the kind of people in the neighborhood), distance (accessibility of various amenities), costs, and the wish to own. Components such as physical neighborhood structure and distance clearly point to an integration of the housing sector into the larger regional (urban) whole, both sectorally and spatially. 18. For approaches working with reduced form equations see Klaassen (1965) and ts further development by Schröder (1968) and by Paelinck (1971). A solution by means of two-stage least squares is illustrated by Swanson & Waldmann (1970). 19. Since Perloff et al. (1967) have applied shift-and-share analysis at a large scale, the interest in components of change analysis has been retained as can be seen from recent contributions such as Bishop and Simpson (1972).

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A useful approach to the supply side of housing has, for example, been developed by Wolfe (1967). Using Markov chains he has suggested a framework (for explanation) to depict patterns of aging: transitional probabilities referring to residential structures in good, minor and major repair, and unfit condition (requiring demolition). Among the models dealing with joint dependence of demand and supply we find a variety of ideas such as (again) the application of Markov matrices, predominantly economic market models, and even approaches which place housing in the context of stages of urban growth. White (1971) tries to model the movement of housing vacancies by using transitional probabilities. The matrix consequently lends itself to the calculation of multipliers like 'that the filtering process enables four families to move for every new unit built'. The dynamics of vacancies, modeled here for housing, of course, have a much wider range of application (see again White, 1970). In an economic model presented by Smith (1966) changes in housing demand provoke dissatisfaction with the existing supply. Dissatisfaction then induces construction of new housing. Clearance between supply and demand is brought about via income. A stage theory of urban growth like the one developed and tested by Birch (1971) links housing with the process of urban growth which is expressed by neighborhoods moving through a sequence of stages in time. These stages are measured in terms of residential types and population densities. Urban and leisure time amenities cover a diversity of activities which can be broadly classified as education, shopping, medical care, outdoor recreation, and cultural activities. Within the scope of this article it is only possible to deal with selected approaches. Explanation of supply and demand in the field of urban and leisure time amenities has been characterized for quite some time by a search for universal, parsimonious principles. Optimal city size and central place theory are two typical examples of this kind of theoretical endeavors. Investigators of optimal city size have tried to derive overall or specific levels of services from sheer population size. Instead of arriving at clearcut solutions, however, they have rather discovered more problems than useful results - like Duncan (1951) when he found out that there are only optimal city sizes which tend to vary from function to function instead of the one and only optimum.20 Central place theory provides another illustration. A well-known hypothesis goes like this:'... the retail system 20. Compare also Baum (1971). For a brief criticism see the author (1971b).

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approximates an interdependent equilibrium between numbers and kinds of activities offered by a center on the one hand and the size of the market area served on the other' (Berry, 1965, p. 151). Problems arise out of this very interdependency which 'breeds circularity' (Berry) manifesting itself, statistically speaking, as multiple collinearity. Berry (1965, pp. 150-155), has succeeded in developing a workable approach which overcomes this dilemma. Factor analysis has shown that there are four independent dimensions (factors) involved in the explanatory problem, namely, population of market area, population density, social class, and family class. Together they yield a satisfying explanation of retail services in planned as against unplanned centers. The delineation of market areas deserves special attention. Berry bases it a priori on the rate of accumulation of trips with distance. In another attempt Lakshmanan and Hansen (1965) advocate a somewhat different departure from some of the restrictions of central place theory. Directional flows of consumer retail expenditures are explained by total consumer retail expenditures, the size of retail activity, distance (in driving time), and competition. The latter is an expression of consumer expenditures in the surrounding area or relevant environment. Both approaches are workable and provide ideas for improving (existing) attempts of explanation in other areas than retail, too (compare, e.g., Klaassen, 1968). Another promising approach pertaining to all kinds of amenities has been presented by Hägerstrand (1970): a framework for calculating the relation between supply and demand in terms of distance. This attempt is part of a more comprehensive framework based on time-budget data. 21 In education we come across another promising basis for explanation. It is another matrix approach, called demographic accounting, a starting point for model building with a special emphasis on education, for the time being. The range of potential applications, however, is much wider, inside and beyond the sector of urban and leisure time amenities (see Stone, 1971). Transportation can be dealt with in a narrow technical way which focuses on determining the 'necessary' supply of transportation services given a certain location of activities (or demand for transportation services). But there are also new directions going beyond this narrow technical approach (see Wilson et ah, 1971). These new directions can be 21. Two examples may serve to illustrate the potential of the time-budget concept for theory building, especially in the field of amenities: Chapin & Hightower (1966); Chapin (1970).

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generally described as not only taking into account the interplay of supply and demand but also as integrating population, manpower, housing, transportation, environment, and even the decision-making process to varying extents. Thus, transportation problems have stimulated development of the most comprehensive urban and regional models at present available. There is one particular approach which has functioned as a catalyst, conceptually, experimentally, and operationally - the so-called Lowry model, which tries to locate activities starting (among others) from a given supply of transport infrastructure (Lowry, 1964): 'First, an ingenious multiplier concept is used to generate the spatial distribution of total employment form the exogenously provided location of basic employment. Then, the model generates households by reversing the journey-to-work into a work-to-residence trip so that work-places can be used to locate the residential stock. In addition, these allocations are subject to constraints: an upper bound capacity constraint for households; a minimum threshold for size of service employment' (Goldner, 1971, p. 101). The Lowry model heritage (Goldner, 1971, pp. 100-110) is already extensive and still growing. Attempts at improvement center around the treatment of time, disaggregation, constraints on development, areal units, zones and networks, variables, money flows, calibration and evaluation techniques. Although the model originates form the United States, its further development has rather boomed in the United Kingdom (compare, e.g., Batty, 1972). Furthermore it has been applied in Yugoslavia and recently in Switzerland and Western Germany.22 Conceptually it is in the first place Echenique who provides us with the 'latest' development. He elaborates two basic types of approaches: activity-location and stockslocation models. Activity-location models range from a simple static version (like the Lowry model) to simple and complex (disaggregated) dynamic versions. Stocks-location models do not only refer to 'betweenplaces' activities (such as the conventional transportation models) but also to 'within-place' activities (Echenique, 1969). Environment is another sector whose analysis tends to encompass almost all other sectors (some of which more directly than others) and spatial units distinguished here. The alarming conclusions of the 'Report for the Club of Rome Project' have been based upon an approach (see 22. Compare Vorstudie für ein Simulationsmodell ... (1972). For a proposal to apply the Garin-Rogers version of the Lowry model to the Dutch rimcity see the author (1970).

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also Forrester, 1971) which incorporates, on the sectoral side, the interrelation between population, capital investment (economic growth), natural resources, pollution and the fraction of capital devoted to agriculture (food production). On the 'spatial side' the whole world has been studied. An application of the same model to lower (regional) resolution levels would imply that more attention has to be paid to interaction with the environment, for example, through internal or international migration of population and capital. The conclusions of Meadow's trend extrapolation have provoked quite some methodological criticism which has not always been motivated scientifically. The present model is just a stepping stone as its fathers have always admitted. But as such it is reliable.23 Disaggregation will be one of the major tasks for future research, especially into the 'sub-system' of demand for and supply of environmental quality. Unlike the other components, 'pollution' is only a recent policy concern and research topic. Thus, long-term effects of pollution have not yet been studied well. First of all, 'pollution' covers a wide variety of environmental damages: air pollution and smell, noise and vibration, safety, access, privacy, physical space (congestion, crowding, and isolation), wind flow, climate (heat, humidity, barometric pressure), radiation (ionizing, ultraviolet, lasers, infrared), microwaves and radio frequencies, aesthetics. These damages are the output of other sectors.24 Access, for example, is a product of transportation. So studying the environment in a disaggregated way will also reveal the basic interrelations assumed and corroborated at world level and at the level of five broad sectors. A disaggregated perspective, however, bears the advantage that interrelations can be specified. This is necessary as physical measurement of environmental quality is only one side of the problem. The other side of the problem concerns the effect on people, i.e., subjective response to environmental quality (damage). The knowledge required relates to the correlation between physical measurement and effect on people.25 This can best be demonstrated by the following example. 'In the case of sound 23. For a Dutch rebuttal of the criticism see, for example, Muller (1972). 24. The materials balance approach demonstrates the hard (natural science) core of this output: the interdependence and pervasiveness of residuals and the alternative between recycling residuals and their disposal into the environment. Compare, e.g., Ayres & Kneese (1969). 25. A bibliography of relevant research is given in Waller (1970). Here are some further examples: The relation between environmental damage and health is treated by Lave and Seskin (1971); see also Man's Health (1971); a promising framework for the analysis of human crowding has recently been proposed by Stokols (1972).

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a 10-fold increase in sound energy will produce a 2-fold increase in apparent loudness' (Waller, 1970, p. 179).

TOWARD A THEORY OF SOCIAL PLANNING

Action-oriented research of the kind described above as 'stepping stones' provides technical know-how for regional planners. But technical knowhow alone will hardly do the job if planning success is measured in terms of adoption and implementation of plan proposals, i.e., in terms of regional action.2® 'In action-planning ... the planner moves to the foreground as a person and autonomous agent. His success will in large measure depend on his skill in managing interpersonal relations' (see Friedmann, 1969b). Aside from that, experiences with advocacy planning have taught us that 'the less status, power, and resources held by the client, the more the client is in need of organizing and political skills rather than planning skills ...' (Bolan, 1971, p. 395). As with social indicators this new role definition of planners is carried by a social movement, born out of the experience of the poverty of traditional approaches and role definitions. Survival and success of the movement will depend on how well control or planning itself can be described, explained and predicted, and on how well the resulting know-how can be transmitted through planners' education. This gives rise to the question of what we do know about the planning process? As far as the implementation of urban-regional development policies is concerned, we dispose of a sufficiently large number of trials in different countries, hence a variety of socio-economic settings from which 'lessons of experience' can be obtained. In a noteworthy attempt at summarizing this kind of experience Friedmann (1971) reports 'four major "principles" of implementing spatial planning. First, planning must be joined to effective political power for implementation. Second, political commitment to a policy must be sustained. Third, the use of instruments for urban-regional development must be concerted. Fourth, a national balance in interregional development must be maintained'. The emphasis on political power is a recurrent theme so it is not too surprising that the study of community power structures, mentioned 26. For partly 'new' requirements in the case of strategic transportation planning compare Wilson et al. (1971).

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earlier, has produced a useful approach. This is, first of all, a general framework of process steps in community decision-making (see Bolan, 1969). We should like to give some examples of what is happening at each of these five steps: 1. structuring and defining ideas as proposals (starting with the recognition of discrepancy between desirable and current conditions); 2. identifying the properties of alternatives (evaluation of alternative solutions by experts); 3. structuring the decision field (identification of potential support and opposition); 4. engaging in the overt decision-making process - possibly repeated at several levels or in other systems (final negotiation); 5. carrying out the consequences of decision process (final application of positive or negative sanctions or pay-ofF). There may be a regeneration of process steps as a result of appraisals of actions and consequences. Within this framework four independent variable sets are presumed to be working, influencing decision outcome, namely, process roles, decision field characteristics, planning and action strategies and, finally, issue attributes. Here, hypotheses come into play. They link variables belonging to the four sets to decision outcome: They inform about constellations tending toward action as against constellations tending toward inaction. Bolan's hypotheses are important. They summarize to some extent the state of knowledge in the field while they also provide guidelines for future research. Planners' impact on decisions, their chance of getting things done for their clients, operates first through (various) process roles depending upon motivation, opportunity, and versatile skills (including good interpersonal competence), and, second, through the planning strategy adopted (for example, ad hoc opportunism versus comprehensive). Planners' impact on decisions also operates within the context of the decision field (with among others formal-legal structures and group dynamics relating to the decision body itself) and issue attributes (it makes, for example, a difference whether issues are flexible over time or whether they are irreversible), and process steps. So far we have dealt primarily with planners' impact on the community decision network tacitly assuming adequate representation of clients' interest. Factors influencing planner and client interaction complete the basic social network in the planning process (see Bolan, 1971), and we

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know from experience and research (see, e.g., Lansing & Marans, 1969) that this interaction is by no means free of problems. The magic word here is citizen participation including advocacy and collaborative planning.27 Contributions like Bolan's may appear somewhat abstract. This is the price to be paid for attempts at generalization. But we also have sufficient evidence from case studies at hand which illustrates the social setting in which known generalizations are 'working' and from which new hypotheses are evolving as well. This has been successfully demonstrated in the case of Coventry by Friend and Jessop (1971). Their study has also contributed to clarify a number of general problems challenging actionoriented social research. Successful planning will very much depend on how well we are prepared to deal with each of the following five operational problems: 1. the problem of finding solutions; 2. the problem of expressing preferences; 3. the problem of exposing latent uncertainties; 4. the problem of selecting exploratory actions; 5. the problem of selecting immediate commitments; and the following six organizational problems of strategic choice: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

the problem of mechanisms for strategic control; the problem of authority for strategic control; the problem of sufficient information; the problem of democratic guidance; the problem of common language; the problem of sufficient motivation. The task is by no means a simple one. And the job can hardly be done by one discipline alone. Fortunately, integration is progressing. There is evidence that know-how for the planning of change, which really is the general theme, is growing across the boundaries of traditional scientific reservations (cf. Bennis et al., 1969). There are already some universities which oifer degree programs in socio-technical system studies (see, e.g., University of California, 1970). Behavioral foundations of socio-technical systems are provided by four bodies of theory and research: system theory, small group theory, job and work system design, influence and 'action-taking' theory. 27. For details see the Journal of the American Institute of Planners, especially from 1967 onward.

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CONCLUSION

If planners engage in finding out how things really are through trying to change them, they should see to it that they are well equipped. There is much at stake. As far as the equipment is concerned, there are difficulties not to be underestimated: difficulties with regions, goals (their meaning and their makers), basic problems of description, explanation, prediction, and control in action-oriented social research. But there are also possibilities', theories in and of planning, informing us about the behavioral forces underlying spatial variations in societal performance. Using this information for controlling or steering spatial development is the essence of regional policy as social planning. This formula is not only worth but also promising enough to be tried out, given our first experiences.

REFERENCES

AJker, H. R., Jr. (1969) A typology of ecological fallacies. In M. Dogan & S. Rokkan (Eds.), Quantitative ecological analysis in the social sciences. Cambridge, Mass. Pp. 69-86. Alonso, W. (1968) Predicting best with imperfect data, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 34: 248-255. Ayres, R. U., & Kneese, Α. V. (1969) Pollution and environmental quality. In H. S. Perloff (Ed.), The quality of the .urban environment. Baltimore. Pp. 35-71. Barras, R., et al. (1971) An operational urban development model of Cheshire, Environment and Planning, 3. Batty, M. (1972) Recent developments in land-use modelling: A review of British research, Urban Studies: 151-177. Baum, P. (1971) Issues in optimal city size. Los Angeles, University of California Real Estate and Urban Land Studies Program, Special Report No. 3. Bennis, W. G., et al., Eds. (1969) The planning of change. 2nd ed. New York. Berry, B. J. L. (1965) The retail component of the urban model, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 31. Biderman, A. D. (1967a) Anticipatory studies and stand-by research capabilities. In R. A. Bauer (Ed.), Social indicators. Cambridge, Mass., and London. Pp. 272-301. (1967b) Social indicators and goals. In R. A. Bauer (Ed.), Social indicators. Cambridge, Mass., and London. Pp. 68-153. Birch, D. L. (1971) Toward a stage theory of urban growth, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 37: 78-87. Bishop, K. C., & Simpson, C. E. (1972) Components of change analysis: Problems of alternative approaches to industrial structure, Regional Studies, 6: 59-68. Bolan, R. S. (1969) Community decision behavior: The culture of planning, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 35: 301-310. (1971) The social relations of the planner, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 37: 387-396.

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Boudon, R. (1967) UAnalyse mathematique des faits sociaux. Paris. Pp. 160-202. Brown, L. A. (1968) Diffusion dynamics: A review and revision of the quantitative theory of the spatial diffusion of innovations. Lund. (1969) Diffusion processes and locations: A conceptual framework and bibliography. Philadelphia. Chapin, F. S., Jr. (1970) Some exploratory directions in time-budget research. Paper presented at the Seventh World Congress of Sociology, Varna, Bulgaria, 14-19 September. 17 pp. & Hightower, H. C. (1966) Household activity systems: A pilot investigation. Chapel Hill. Clark, Τ. M. (1965) Who governs, where, and when? Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, Chicago. Cyert, R. M., & Marsh, J. G. (1963) A behavioral theory of the firm. Englewood Cliffs, N.J. Dierkes, Μ. (1969) Der Beitrag des französischen Mittelstandes zum wirtschaftlichen Wachstum. Köln and Opladen. Drewe, P. (1967) Techniken zur Identifizierung lokaler Eliten, Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, 19: 721-735. (1970) Randstad Holland: How to analyze an emerging metropolitan scale? Discussion paper, Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam. 18 pp. (1971a) Steps toward action-oriented migration research, Regional Science Association Papers, 26: 145-164. (1971b) When is big, bad? Optimale stadsgrootte herzien, Economisch-Statistische Berichten, 56: 638 and 658. & Rodgers, H. (1972a) Onderzoek naar vooruitberekeningsmodellen voor de interregionale migratie in Nederland. Rotterdam, Netherlands Economic Institute. & Rodgers, H. (1972b) Steps toward action-oriented migration research: A progress report. Netherlands Economic Institute Series, Foundations of Empirical Economic Research, Rotterdam, 5. Duncan, O. D. (1951) The optimal size of cities. In P. Hatt & A. Reiss (Eds.), Reader in urban sociology. Glencoe, 111. Pp. 632-645. (1969a) Social forecasting: The state of the art, The Public Interest, 17: 88-118. (1969b) Toward social reporting: Next steps. New York. Echenique, M. (1969) Urban systems: Toward an explorative model. Centre for Environmental Studies, Working Paper 2. Europäische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft (1964) Ziele und Methoden der Regionalpolitik in der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft. Brussels. Forrester, J. W. (1971) World dynamics. Cambridge, Mass. Friedmann, J. (1969a) A general theory of polarized development. University of California at Los Angeles, School of Architecture and Urban Planning. 47 pp. Mimeo. (1969b) Notes on societal action, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 35: 311-318. (1970) Toward a national urbanization policy: Problems, decisions, and consequences. Working paper presented at the United Nations Seminar on Financing of Housing and Urban Development, Copenhagen, 25 May-10 June. 72 pp. (1971) The implementation of urban-regional development policies: Lessons of experience. Los Angeles, University of California School of Architecture and Urban Planning. 29 pp. Friend, J. K., & Jessop, W. N. (1971) Local government and strategic choice. London. Galbraith, J. K. (1958) The affluent society. Boston.

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Goddard, J. B. (1971) Office communications and office location: A review of current research, Regional Studies, 5: 263-280. Goldner, W. (1971) The Lowry model heritage, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 37. Gross, Β. M. (1964) The managing of organizations. New York. (1967) The state of the nation: Social systems accounting. In R. A. Bauer (Ed.), Social indicators. Cambridge, Mass., and London. Hägerstrand, Τ. (1970) Tidsanvändning och omgivningsstruktur. In Expertgruppen for regional utredningsverksamhet (ERU) (Ed.), Urbaniseringen i Sverige. Stockholm. Pp. 1-146. Harvey, D. (1969) Conceptual and measurement problems in the cognitive-behavioral approach to location theory. Northwestern University Studies in Geography (Behavioral Problems in Geography: A Symposium), No. 17. HEW (1969) Toward a social report. Washington, D.C., U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Johnston, J. (1963) Econometric methods. Tokyo. Johnston, R. J. (1968) Choice in classification: The subjectivity of objective methods, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 58: 575-589. Kade, G. (1962) Die Grundannahmen der Preistheorie: Eine Kritik an den Ausgangssätzen der mikroökonomischen Modellbildung. Berlin and Frankfurt. Kapp, K. W. (1950) The social costs of private enterprise. Harvard. Klaassen, L. H. (1965) Area economic and social redevelopment. Paris. (1967) Methods of selecting industries for depressed areas. Paris. (1968) Social amenities in area economic growth. Paris. L.A. Goals Council (1969) Summary report of the Los Angeles Goals Council. Los Angeles. Lakshmanan, T. R., & Hansen, W. G. (1965) A retail market potential model, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 31: 134-143. Lansing, J. B., & Marans, R. W. (1969) Evaluation of neighborhood quality, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 35: 195-199. Lave, L. B., & Seskin, E. P. (1971) Air pollution and human health, Ekistics, 31: 295-305. Leslie, G. L., & Richardson, A. H. (1961) Life-cycle, career pattern, and decision to move, American Sociological Review, 26: 849-902. Lichfield, N. (1970) Evaluation methodology of urban and regional plans: A review, Regional Studies, 4: 151-165. Lowry, I. S. (1964) A model of metropolis. Santa Monica. Maisel, S. J. (1966) Rates of ownership, mobility and purchase. In Real Estate Research Program (Ed.), Essays in urban land economics. Los Angeles, University of California. Pp. 76-108. Man's health and physical factors in the environment: Some research needs (Report of the Task Force on Research Planning in Environmental Health Science) (1971) Ekistics, 31: 276-284. McLoughlin, J. B., & Webster, J. N. (1970) Cybernetic and general-system approaches to urban and regional research: A review of the literature, Environment and Planning, 2: 369^08. Meadows, D. L. (1972) The limits to growth: A report for the Club of Rome Project on the predicament of mankind. New York. Merton, R. K. (1961) Social theory and social structure. Glencoe, 111. Muller, F. (1972) Mythen rondom de modellen van Forrester en de Club van Rome, Economisch-Statistische Berichten, 57: 356-360.

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Muth, R. F. (1969) Migration: Chicken or egg? Interuniversity Committee on Urban Economics Conference Papers, Cambridge, Mass., 11-12 Sept. OECD (1970) The regional factor in economic development: Policies in fifteen industrialized OECD countries. Paris. (1971) Social indicators development programme. (Note by the Secretariat, restricted). Paris, 28 December. 12 pp. Orcutt, G. H., et al. (1961) Microanalysis of socioeconomic systems: A simulation study. New York. Paelinck, J. (1971) Technics of regional plan formulation: Problems of interregional consistency. In D. M. Durham & J. G. M. Hilhorst (Eds.), Issues in regional planning. The Hague and Paris. Palme, O. (1972) Ist Zukunft machbar? Paper presented at the Fourth International Conference of the Metalworkers' Union (IG Metall) of the Federal Republic of Germany, 'Quality of Life: The Challenge of the Future', Oberhausen, April 11-14. Perloff, H. S. (1965) New directions in social planning, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 31: 297-304. Perloff, H. S., et al. (1967) Regions, resources and economic growth. Lincoln. (First published in 1960.) Pigou, A. C. (1920) The economics of welfare. London. Plessas, D. J., & Fein, R. (1972) An evaluation of social indicators, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 38. Press, C. (1962) Main Street politics: Policy making at the local level. East Lansing, Mich. Pub. Int. (1969) The Public Interest, 15: 72-105. Rogers, A. (1968) Matrix analysis of interregional population growth and distribution. Los Angeles and Berkeley. Rogers, Ε. M. (1964) Diffusion of innovation. New York and London. Rokeach, M., & Parker, S. (1970) Values as social indicators of poverty and race relations in America, Ekistics, 30: 207-212. Rossi, P. H. (1955) Why families move: A study in the social psychology of urban residential mobility. Glencoe, 111. Scheuch, Ε. Κ. (1969) Cross-national comparisons using aggregate data: Some substantive and methodological problems. In R. L. Merritt & S. Rokkan (Eds.), Comparing nations. New Haven and London. Schröder, D. (1968) Strukturwandel, Standortwahl und regionales Wachstum. Stuttgart. de Sismondi, S. (1827) Nouveaux principes d'economie politique, 2nd ed. Paris. Smith, W. F. (1966) The income level of new housing demand. In Real Estate Research Program (Ed.), Essays in urban land economics. Los Angeles, University of California. Pp. 143-178. Steiner, D. (1965) Die Faktorenanalyse, ein modernes statistisches Hilfsmittel des Geographen für die objektive Raumgliederung und Typenbildung, Geographica Helvetica, 20 : 20-34. Stokols, D. (1972) A social-psychological model of human crowding phenomena, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 38: 72-83. Stone, R. (1971) Demographic accounting and model building. Paris. Swanson, C. V., & Waldmann, R. J. (1970) A simulation model of economic growth dynamics, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 36: 314-322. Thorngren, B. (1970) How do contact systems affect regional development?, Environment and Planning, 2: 409-427. Townroe, P. M. (1971) Industrial location decisions: A studv in management behavior. London.

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University of California (1970) Degree programs in socio-technical system studies. Graduate School of Business Administration, University of California, Los Angeles. 45 pp. Vorstudie für ein Simulationsmodell mit Computerprogrammen für ein integrales System der städtebaulichen Planung (1972), Bundesbaublatt, 1: 24-25. Waller, R. A. (1970) Environmental quality: Its measurement and control, Regional Studies, 4: 179-191. Ward, B., & Dubos, R. (1972) Only one earth: The care and maintenance of a small planet. London. White, H. C. (1970) Chains of opportunity. Cambridge, Mass. (1971) Multipliers, vacancy chains, and filtering in housing, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 37: 88-94. van Wickeren, A. C. (1971) Interindustry relations: Some attraction models. Enschede. Willis, J. (1968) Population growth and movement. Centre for Environmental Studies, Working Paper 12. Wilson, A. G., et al. (1971) New directions in strategic transportation planning. In OECD (Ed.), The urban transportation planning process. Paris. Pp. 227-351. Wolfe, Η. B. (1967) Models for condition aging of residential structures, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 33: 192-196. Yuan Tien, H. (1970) Comparative analysis of fertility change in developmental perspective. Paper prepared for the Seventh World Congress of the International Sociological Association, Varna, Bulgaria, 14-19 September.

TORSTEN HÄGERSTRAND

6

The impact of social organization and environment upon the time-use of individuals and households

We need some pervading structure and predictability in society in order to secure cooperation between people and things. Industrial society has worked out its own way to accomplish this task. The system shows an overwhelming power to provide articles for private consumption. At present it is not so friendly with other aspects of life and it has difficulties in giving public goods a sufficient share. Two dimensions have become rather overlooked in the development process. One is the need of the human being to experience coherence and continuity in his activities and relations both in a practical and in a mental sense. The other is the costs related to certain environmental constraints of a more fundamental nature than the available amount of critical raw materials in a purely quantitative meaning. Both omissions could be the outcome of two corresponding circumstances working together. One is the fact that the general philosophy behind traditional industrial organization has been permitted to extend throughout the rest of society. The other is the lack of a conceptual frame or language, suitable to lay bare events in society which should have been noted long ago as problems to be counteracted. Impressed by the immense efficiency of manufacturing industry we have been led into the belief that such key concepts as 'increased division of labor' and 'specialization of function' ought to be applied without reservation to almost all spheres of human activity. A growing bureaucracy, a vast number of technical specialists and a multiplicity of powerful interest organizations try to look after more and more narrowly defined sets of events. The built environment and the uses of natural resources take shape in the hands of an army of separated experts. It makes little difference if we examine economic, social or cultural activities. And what is more serious, the individuals as patients, pupils or students have

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likewise come to be treated more and more piecemeal as if they were factory products. Age-groups and generations are directed into separate clusters. Small children lose sight of the adult world in day nurseries and old people learn how to die properly away from the rest of society. Oddly enough the logic of chopping up activities of all sorts in smaller and smaller parcels leads to bigger and bigger firms, institutions, unions, buildings and cities to contain them. To our great astonishment this tremendous accumulation of specialized competence and administrative ambition is on its way of creating an aggregate outcome which is much less than satisfactory. As already indicated the explanation could be simple enough. It is hard to go on dividing up tasks along systematic lines and still keep in mind and respect that the human being is indivisible and that there are needs and wants which can never be satisfied with money transactions or professional intervention. Secondly it tends to go unnoticed that things and processes in the real world do not only hang together in the manner the expert thinks to be important. They also interact in all sorts of unexpected and unwanted configurations because of their coexistence in time and terrestrial space. Like other natural resources time and space have particular scarcity characteristics. It is inevitable that unlike phenomena engage in a packing process full of disturbing consequences (of which pollution is just one). Few are trained to appreciate this point. Now both conditions - the indivisibility of the human being and the limitations of time-space to accommodate things and events - do not come out well, perhaps hardly at all, in the language of descriptive statistics which today is the dominating kind of information behind decisionmaking. The descriptive task is really not numerical but topological in nature. But so far no convenient language is available to meet the challenge. It is easy to see why this fundamental language problem or conceptual problem has not been solved a long time ago. In an earlier, less complicated society both conditions were intuitively clear. The peasants of the preindustrial village understood perfectly well how their settlement functioned in terms of manpower, social relations, technical equipment, working procedures and land use. They could all literally see all this at work from childhood. There was no need for a particular language to deal with a closed situation of this kind. The same cannot be said of today's city-fathers nor of their advisors. As everything has become broken up into small pieces of knowledge, responsibility and action and as connections between events have become more and more invisible for the

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locally based observer, we have lost touch with the kind of direct information which is needed for intuitive understanding. Our very different cognitive situation may have invited us to think that the loosening of local ties has given us an altogether free personal choice of events to engage ourselves in. It is true that the assortment of possible combinations is vastly greater than it ever was, but certain fundamental limitations are still there. Just as we can achieve only a limited rationality so is only a limited freedom attainable when it comes to action. A vast number of situations which the individual becomes involved in are of a kind that he cannot avoid or counteract. A reorientation of the pattern of risks and opportunities must be worked out on some system level above him as far as the matter can be influenced at all by human intervention. This is quite clear where pollution and traffic hazards are concerned. But also circumstances like availability of employment, dwellings, education, health care, recreation, kind of social contacts and transportation beyond walking distance are among environmental resources outside immediate control by the average citizen. He can sometimes migrate of course, to some other setting. But when he is there he will again find himself hooked up in a pre-existing arrangement which largely has to be taken as it is. As recently pointed out by Harvey (1971), the manner in which urban areas are structured and the ways urban activities are organized have deep-going consequences for the distribution of real income among the urban population. By real income is then understood not only money income in a narrow sense but also access to environmental resources and opportunities of all kinds. If this is true of urban areas it is as well true of the wider regions which make up nations and continents. Given this outlook one comes to the conclusion that a population, organized in a certain way and contained in a physical setting, partly immutable and partly only slowly rearrangeable, sends its individual members into sequences of events which by their distributions and characteristics describe the performance of the set-up as a whole. One kind of effort to estimate performance in a comprehensive way is well known: the national income account is a widespread instrument for the purpose since a couple of decades. Experiments are under way to break down the national measure into corresponding regional income accounts. But it is clear that the transactions included in the accounts do not exactly measure what is under discussion here. They cannot show how roles become divided between individuals in the process, seen in cross-section, and how events thereby tend to fall out upon individuals in a longitudinal perspec-

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tive. A step in the latter direction is taken more clearly in surveys collecting so-called social indicators. The growing interest in time budgets as a research tool is an indication of a further move towards a less aggregated and abstract form of observation. The trends in research just mentioned are clear advancements. But still one should not overlook that empirical approaches of this kind also entail those disadvantages which always follow measurement without theory. It is true that by observing the behaviour of members of a population, one learns something about their living conditions as they have been understood by the actors. But this information does not clearly separate what are wants and needs from what are various degrees of necessities. Behaviour does not reveal in full the underlying pattern of constraints which shapes the situations in which action takes place. And this also means that no good clues are provided for how to reshape the living conditions if that seems to be called for. We must look for latent structure and latent processes to find the clues. Purposeful changes of the distribution of opportunities and risks among individuals require first of all an understanding of how constraints interact and how the choice potential is affected by relaxation or tightening of one or more of those which can be influenced at all. If we assume - as the above reasoning implies - that people survive in 'niches' of possible actions, then the shapes and volumes of these niches are more fundamental objects for research than actual behaviour at a certain moment. The latter is just a sample from the universe of permitted events - permitted taken in a much broader sense than the legal. It also includes the physical and physiological side of the matter. The pattern of niches as formed by constraints in operation describes something different. It renders the map of potential events. The notion of potentials contains a more general measure of performance. The big question is how to go about to find the map. A way out which has seemed worth trying is to translate all necessary concepts, old or new, into a strictly 'physical' language. In this procedure it is essential that the unity of time and space is fully respected. What that means can be indicated by a simple figure (Fig. 1). For the sake of illustration, three-dimensional space has been collapsed into a twodimensional map. This trick leaves the third dimension for representing time. The acting individual describes an unbroken 'path' in time-space. It is easy to imagine how a population of interacting individuals form a network of paths but with the fundamental property that identity is retained. In the same way, the environment in which the population

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network is embedded comes out either as paths described by mobile objects or as time-space pattern of walls and channels or - on a more aggregate level - as localized probability densities. The picture makes it immediately clear that cooperation between individuals, buildings, tools, materials and signals require both synchronization and synchorization in order to work. In other words, time and place hang together. Seen as a whole, the system exhibits a skeleton of meeting-times and meeting-places. Much of the skeleton has been built up in advance, frequently very far in advance.

c

Figure 1. The time-space paths of a group of individuals bound up in a day's activity system r represents geographical space and t represents time. 1, 2, 3 and 4 indicate different kinds of activity bundles. 1 is connected with some fixed installation, 2 and 3 are meetings with different durations. All three kinds of bundles require movements before and after in order to be formed. 4 stands for a telephone call which does not require movement but still binds two individuals together in one activity. It is evident that time-use would be affected by change of locations. It is also clear that every new bundle put in eliminates some pre-existing potential combinations. Thus, the time budget of an individual is not a wholly private affair. It is subordinated to some sort of collective arrangement and this is even so if only 'market forces' are at work.

It is not the intention to describe the model further in this presentation (cf. Hägerstrand 1970; Cullen & Godson 1971; Bullock 1970). But let us consider a little more a few points related to human cooperation. It should be kept in mind that this is a complicated matter already in a space-free timetable sense. Even if members of a population do nothing else than engage in sending messages of different length by telecommunication media (so that transportation for all practical purposes is instantaneous), the indivisibility of the human being is a severe constraint on what can happen. As soon as a communicating group has come into

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being, the duration of its activity inevitably creates waiting-times among those who want to come into contact with one or more members of the group. The conflicts that arise will become a more and more obvious difficulty as we move towards a society in which the handling of information develops into the main activity, whether for economic, educational, political, personal service or recreational purposes. To think of the problems of a large and exclusive communication society is to take the case to the extreme. But it is clear that already in the society we have, there is much headache related to time-use. One can safely assume that much of the trouble is associated with coupling constraints which have been left unanalyzed as to their broader implications. Still, it is necessary to remember that more than coupling between time-uses goes into the problem. To illustrate, let us assume that the population network (Figure 1) has been preplanned in the best conceivable way in terms of just time-use in order to take care of some defined set of tasks. That sort of planning is never done for open society of course (except perhaps in times of war), but certain big organizations like universities and hospitals at least try to carry out planning in that direction. It follows from the earlier discussion that even the best arrangement which can be made contains much human time which has to be left out. It is rather arbitrary what of this that comes to be called unemployment or hidden as blank hours. One cannot get around a conflict between the internal logic of tasks to perform and the indivisibility of persons involved. Let us further assume that the preplanned time-table is imposed over a population as an ideal pattern and that this population is immersed in an area with ordinary irregular geographic characteristics. This latter exercise will then add some further complexities. It is first of all unavoidable that facilities where sub-operations of the programme have to take place are separated by distances. This adds time for movement. How much depends on the programme. As a rule, the more of division of labour and specialization of function one has foreseen the more bits of transportation will have to be provided. It is further unavoidable that facilities will have certain capacity limitations. These produce waiting-times in queues. It is unavoidable that people, when moving from location to location in the area, become involved in unforeseen events depending upon how things and activities happen to get packed together in the limited space. In short, the ideal space-free timetable does not work.

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Adjustments can take place in many ways. People have to change roles. Tasks have to be given up or it has to be accepted that they are carried out at a slower pace than originally planned. In a long-term perspective people will have to migrate out from and into the system in order to satisfy their private time-use needs. Technology comes in and tries to speed up transportation and manufacturing procedures. The physical infrastructure is slowly reshaped in terms of locations and/or capacities. Some enterprising people will find out that as soon as certain tasks cannot be accommodated, some new ones with a different time-space structure might go in. In short, just that process will develop which we witness in today's urbanization, a process which is kind and rewarding to some groups and not so kind and rewarding to other groups. What has just been said is not a historical account. Social and economic organization does not develop as distortion of a preplanned master timetable. But reality still contains enough of thinking and acting as if it worked that way. Therefore it comes to mind as a reasonable proposition to structure research concerned with the pattern of constraints in steps going from idealization to distortion. The fact is that industrial organizers, welfare administrators and individuals frequently present their ideas in forms which imply ideal time-tables. It seems to be closest at hand to think in the linear time dimension as soon as we leave the still more convenient money dimension. Strong decision-makers impose their schemes (say industry and school) and the weaker ones have to find their places, if any, in spaces left between. In the never-ending battle between time-tables it is no longer clear to anybody how the system actually works. We have lost sight of the indivisibility condition and the fact that a space-less economy and society are impossible. It seems worth trying to wind up the question of the impact upon the individual of social organization and environment from the time-use end but at the same time doing so in a deductive fashion. In a couple of research projects, related to the Swedish regional policy programme, some aspects of the problems mentioned above have been taken up for closer examination. The focus has been placed upon how events fall out upon the single individual and the household group depending on interaction between time-tables and geographical environments. It is not possible to go into technical details showing how this analysis can be done. Computer simulation is so far the most important device. The basic scheme is the following:

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1. assume a population and a related sequence of actions in time-table terms; 2. sieve the population-and-action system through an environment; 3. register the outcome as it is distributed among individuals in the given population. A considerable part of the work is basic research dealing with the modelling as such. A second component covers empirical testing of the patterns of constraints and opportunities inherent in typical presentday urban and other environments in the country. The sample includes the sparsely populated area, the small and the middle-sized town, both with their immediate hinterlands, the big city and finally the urban system as a whole. Two time scales have been chosen. One part of the work deals with daily and weekly activities. The other part takes a long-term perspective. Questions are asked about how life chances and environments are related. In neither case are broad statistical surveys of actual behaviour essential. Emphasis is laid upon the working of constraints. And these are in various ways sensed with the aid of ideal-typical sequences of actions which are confronted with actual or model environments. Questions are asked about how these various environments perform as providers of jobs, training, services, recreation, care, social communication and time at free disposal - to mention only the most important items looked for. Besides investigations turning around individual and household, a related project (Törnqvist et al.) is applying a similar approach in order to try out how far location of economic activity is dependent upon direct personal contacts between individuals. The main purpose so far has been to test how well the present national transportation system functions as part of the daily environment for cooperating individuals in industry, business and public administration. The first step has been to estimate the 'contact potential' under existing circumstances. The second step was to measure how a relocation of base-points within the urban system affects the contact potential if at the same time no change takes place in the network and timing of passenger transportation. The third step, finally, is intended to show what happens to the potential if one goes on to reorganizing transportation as well as location. Thus what research is moving towards are methods to test in advance the probable outcome of policies and plans but all the time in terms of potentials, not in terms of actual events.

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REFERENCES

Bullock, N. (1970) An approach to the simulation of activities: A university example. Cambridge, Land Use and Built Form Studies, Working Paper 21. Cullen, I., & Godson, V. (1971) The structure of activity patterns. London, Joint Unit Unit for Planning Research, Research Paper No. 1. Harvey, D. (1971) Social processes, spatial form and the redistribution of real income in an urban system. In Chisholm-Frey-Haggett (Ed.), Regional forecasting. Colston Research Symposium Bristol. London. Hägerstrand, Τ. (1970) What about people in regional science? Regional Science Association Papers, Vol. 24. Törnqvist, G. et al. (in print) Kontaktbehov och resemöjligheter: Nägra Sverigemodeller för studier av regionala utvecklingsalternativ.

JOHN Η. CUMBERLAND

7

Regional and environmental planning in social perspective

1. BACKGROUND

The realization is now widespread throughout industrialized nations that the advantages of economic development are bought at the cost of environmental damage and other external diseconomies. Environmental problems vary regionally because economic development and environmental management are essentially spatial phenomena. Environmental management is emerging as one of the most complex issues to face society and one which is inseparable from other national goals and priorities. The purposes of this paper are: to suggest a conceptual framework in which to consider these issues and to attempt to derive from this conceptual model some operational suggestions for regional environmental management.

2.

REGIONAL AND DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

A fundamental problem posed by the economic aspects of regional development is identified by the materials balance concept (Ayres & Kneese, 1969) which is now widely accepted as a necessary corollary to economic development theory. Since matter in general cannot be destroyed, all economic production and consumption must eventually take the form of residuals and waste. Consequently, the very success of efforts to achieve regional economic development will aggravate the environmental waste management problem in approximate proportion to the success of regional economic development efforts. This means that economic development per se can no longer be uncritically accepted as a

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single purpose objective, but must be carefully designed to serve desired social objectives while limiting environmental damage to acceptable levels. Recognition that potential environmental damage and the magnitude of the waste management problem are directly related to the growth of economic activity has already led in some regions to the emergence of demands for reducing the rate of economic growth. Growing levels of pollution and the imminent threat of environmental damage in many areas, such as Lake Erie, the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Rhine River, suggest that the environmental disasters forecast in The limits to growth (Meadows et al, 1972) are not mere fantasy but are very real dangers which now require effective action to limit the growth of pollution in certain areas. However, to the extent that reduction of pollution takes the form of reducing output and income, the achievement of environmental goals will raise possible conflicts with goals of reducing unemployment, underemployment, and poverty. Reallocation of economic resources toward alleviation of poverty and unemployment is much more difficult to achieve under conditions of decline or decelerating growth than under conditions of buoyant growth. The problems of productivity, population, income distribution, social equity and social justice are closely related. Therefore, simple reduction of growth is not likely to be accepted as the major instrument to be used to reduce environmental damage. Fortunately, numerous alternatives to reducing growth are available for reconciling development with environmental management. Benefit-cost studies offer techniques for comparing alternative development programs designed to maximize achievement of social goals at minimum costs. However, traditional benefit-cost studies have limited value for analyzing regional development proposals since the significant issue is not only the comparison of total benefits and costs but the distribution of benefits and costs between groups of people, regions, and economic activities. The concern for equity and social justice means that the mere fact that the aggregate amount of benefits to be expected exceeds the aggregate cost is not acceptable as the sole criterion of judgment. Although it is theoretically possible in any project which has a positive benefit-cost ratio to compensate losers out of the gains of the winners and still leave all parties better off, in an actual development situation the mechanism for equitable distribution should be spelled out. Therefore, a positive benefit-cost ratio is a necessary but not sufficient condition to justify a regional development project or program. Pursuit of benefit-cost

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criteria for the selection of environmentally attractive regional development projects also suffers because, in many cases, the marginal benefits and costs of alternative economic and environmental management programs are unknown. However, despite their limitations, benefit-cost studies offer the possibility of assessing the trade-offs between regional development and management of residuals. Because economic activity generates residuals and because costs are minimized from the standpoint of the profit maximizing activity by releasing these residuals into common property resources such as air and water, external diseconomies are created for society, which must bear these pollution costs. Strong moral and ethical justifications argue for requiring internalization of all externalities and for requiring all activities to refrain from imposing costs and injuries upon others and upon society. However, in practice, some externalities are very difficult to internalize, particularly those associated with large-scale industrial or commercial activities. The application of large-scale technology is particularly associated with such extensive externalities that internalization of all effects in such cases is virtually impossible. Economic theory suggests that, even if this were a technical possibility, total internalization and elimination of all wastes and residuals would not be efficient or socially desirable because it would preclude the possibility of using natural processes in the treatment of residuals and would involve excessively high costs to society in achieving environmental objectives. The concept of an optimal degree of emissions in a region consequently must be explored. The guiding principle of permitting optimal levels of emissions and environmental damage in every region for every activity can thus be advanced as a simple rule to be followed in evaluation all regional development decisions. In practice, this would require weighing the marginal benefits (or the marginal damages prevented) against the marginal waste treatment costs of every activity in a regional development program. However, pursuit of this marginalist guideline, while desirable for every development project, would not serve adequately as the sole criterion to be followed since it does not account for the potential largescale external economic benefits and costs which would result from the relationships between various large systems, nor for the evaluation of the full range of alternative development projects, nor for alternative sequencing of these projects. Efficient regional development planning must be carried out not only on a project-by-project basis but also on a scale comprehensive enough

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to take into account the management of entire water sheds and air sheds, and related natural regions. Region-wide planning is also important to capture potential external economies and to avoid external diseconomies between large systems, such as transportation, water management, and urban development. For example, unless planning for these systems is coordinated, space for transportation networks may not be set aside to serve projected population centers and water supplies may be subjected to extra stress from the impact of badly located facilities. Another set of problems associated with regional development arises from the existence of alternative sets of goals and objectives. The residents of a region may be able to concur on a set of goals and objectives which may be at variance with those of other elements in the hierarchy such as the national government or the international community: A sparsely populated region having large assimilative capacities in its air and water resources may appear to other communities or to the nation as an ideal dumping ground for large quantities of wastes and residuals. Such a solution might appear to be optimal from the standpoint of the nation but may be perceived as highly objectionable and unfair from the standpoint of the receiving region. Or, alternatively, residents of affluent, industrialized regions may wish to discourage development in nearby less-developed regions so that these less-developed regions may provide vacation areas and open space for the enjoyment of residents of affluent, congested regions. Residents of less-developed regions may thus be asked to forego the benefits of regional development so that residents of neighboring, already developed regions may enjoy external economies of nonpolluted nearby vacation areas for recreation and country homes. Similarly, highly developed, industrialized regions which already make very heavy demands upon existing limited stocks of non-renewable minerals, metals, fuels, and related natural resources, and which may make very heavy demands upon the assimilative capacities of the earth, have begun to express concern about slowing down economic growth to protect the environment. This growth reduction policy can be perceived by less-developed regions as potentially eliminating their opportunities for achieving development, reducing poverty, and enjoying the economic benefits already achieved by more developed regions. Thus, interregional welfare as well as intergroup welfare across different income groups must be considered. Divergencies between environmental policies and standards in one region, and those of the nation and neighboring regions, could also raise

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potential difficulties for a region attempting to achieve high quality of regional development. For example, requiring high levels of expensive waste treatment to protect the environment in one region could pose competitive cost demands on producers and consumers of that region in comparison with those of other regions. Alternatively, regions pursuing high environmental quality objectives can potentially impose cost problems on residents of other regions. A region which wishes to limit inmigration and hold down the rate of population growth to protect open space and the quality of life for its residents, thus adding to the population pressures of other regions, consequently poses the problem of interregional benefits and costs of environmental policies. The regional problems associated with environmental management are more than simply a subset of national policies. The inter-spatial dimension of environmental quality is the essence of the problem. Another basic problem in environmental management is the role of technology in controlling pollution. While some analysts identify technology as the major culprit in environmental decline (as in the cases of fuels, energy, nuclear processes, autos), others see technology as the potential savior which will permit mankind to continue the pursuit of high levels of economic activity with minimum damage. To other analysts, technology itself poses a major environmental problem. Most large-scale technologies generate side effects, which are often more serious than the problems the original technology was designed to solve. Thus, the ultimate nature of technology and of the man-technology-management process remains an unknown but critical factor in planning for environmental management. Clearly, society will need improved methods for anticipating side effects and controlling the applications of technology before technology can be regarded as an asset in the environmental struggle. This brief but formidable array of problems which has been identified in planning for environmental management indicates not only the emergence of one more social goal, but reveals some critical problems in the relationship of man to his total environment requiring re-evaluation of all socio-economic issues. However, the emergence of a broad analytic framework which includes the environmental dimension may itself provide the intellectual basis for a clearer understanding of human problems and goals. Therefore, in following sections this paper will examine some of the opportunities for resolving these problems and for developing and designing a responsible approach to the reconciliation of environmental and economic goals in regional planning.

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74 3.

CONCEPTS AND POLICIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

Introduction As indicated in the preceding section, the task of planning for responsible environmental management involves a formidable array of problems; however, some policies and measures exist for grappling with these problems. This section suggests that while none of these policies alone is adequate or intrinsically superior to other policies, the combined use of a wide range of policies can assist materially in reducing environmental damage and in achieving responsible balance between economic development and environmental management in regional planning. A logical sequence in planning for regional development is to understand the base period initial conditions, establish reasonable sets of goals and priorities, select from the feasible alternatives the preferred means for achieving these goals, and then to implement the chosen means. In practice, these steps are often simultaneous rather than sequential and have mutual feedback characteristics. In identification of goals, while an infinite variety of objectives may be sought, it is assumed here that priority will in general be given to improving the quality of life by raising the level of welfare and improving distributional equity in the private sector, strengthening the capability of the public sector to provide public goods, and protecting the quality of the environment. The policies explained below are intended to serve these objectives, first by exploring some concepts of regional development and then by examining methods of implementation. 3.1 Control of economic growth rates In many regions, there are very strong indications that current patterns of growth have already achieved or exceeded appropriate limits. Congestion, pollution, noise, and their resulting social pathology generate signals which cannot be ignored. Pollution of major air sheds and major water bodies in many parts of the world indicates clearly that man's economic activity has accelerated to a level which creates waste in excess of the assimilative capacities of the local environment. Other indicators which reinforce the warnings issued in The limits to growth (Meadows et al, 1973) are already emerging in some regions in the form of energy shortages and accelerated depletion of non-renewable resources. These

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phenomena in some regions are generating feedback in the form of moratoria on new sewage connections and consideration of extending these moratoria to connections for natural gas supply, electric energy, water supply, and construction of highways. Thus, in many regions, the forecasts in The limits to growth are already being documented by events. Policymakers and citizens in some areas are taking steps to reduce regional growth rates. This phenomenon will probably spread. 3.2 Internalization of externalities Although reduction of growth rates, and changes in the composition of growth, if efficiently designed, have a legitimate role in regional environmental management, they also have their limitations. Numerous alternative policy options are available. For example, in theory, many objections to growth could be met by establishing an enforceable rule that all harmful economic externalities be internalized. Because producers and consumers find that their private costs can be reduced by discharging their wastes into common community property without paying for the use of these resources, costs are shifted to the other potential users of the resources. The activity of the emitters is subsidized as a result of their failure to pay for the full costs of their activities. Therefore, one obvious opportunity available to regional development managers is to internalize harmful externalities. Many environmental and other problems would be reduced by requiring all producers to bear the full cost of treating the wastes they generate. If all regional development projects fully internalized all of their external diseconomies (including aesthetic, social, and other external diseconomies), the adverse effects of regional development would be drastically reduced. Therefore, a regional development policy requiring maximum internalization of diseconomies can be considered as a useful objective in regional development. By symmetry, a good case can also be made for internalizing positive beneficial externalities, since this would in theory increase revenues available for expanding the output of positive externalities and of public goods. It is in the interests of the region and the larger society for the regional development planners to specify precisely what the environmental impacts of a proposed development would be, how these impacts are to be treated, what the cost of the environmental impact would be, how the costs will be borne, and what the economic and social consequences of the development would be. A perfectly rational policy of regional development planners

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would give top priority to those projects which maximize the differences between regional benefits and regional costs. A recommended policy of regional development planners, therefore, is to establish a goal of selecting those projects which to the maximum extent achieve regional goals, such as improving the income status of local residents, with a minimum of adverse effects. For industrial development this would imply a virtually complete treatment or recycling of wastes, addition of necessary infrastructure to prevent congestion, and other efforts to internalize externalities. For residential development or urban design the internalization of external diseconomies would not only mean internalizing all wastes but also covering the full costs of providing any new infra-structure which would be required, avoiding aesthetic damage and otherwise minimizing adverse effects. Another advantage of the guideline recommending internalization of all externalities is its potentially beneficial effect on technological change. If regions increasingly reject the establishment of industries and activities which generate large amounts of waste, noise, and other externalities imposed on local residents, industries and governments will be provided with positive incentives to develop new technologies which can approach the zero waste, zero externalities guideline. The rule of maximum internalization of external diseconomies, which can be viewed as the ethical equivalent of avoiding injuries to one's neighbors, is a reasonable goal to be sought in regional, as well as national, development. An important distinction should be noted between internalizing externalities and enforcing a zero emission standard. Internalization of externalities simply requires that costs of external diseconomies be recognized and taken into account in decision-making. Full internalization of external diseconomies need not require reducing emissions to zero levels. The validity and effectiveness of zero emissions can be questioned from the standpoint of economic logic not only because it would have the effect of totally prohibiting most forms of economic development but because pursuit of zero externalities would conflict with the guideline of economic efficiency, which requires balance of marginal costs with marginal benefits. Even from an efficiency point of view, however, arguments for complete internalization, closed systems, zero pollution, and even zero emissions can be defended as an ultimate goal in cases of possible ecological irreversibilities, toxic synergism, ignorance as to ultimate effects, and systems vulnerability. Equating cost and benefits at the margin recognizes that low levels of emissions of wastes and pollution in environments with large assimilative

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capacities is desirable, while the effort to reduce emissions to zero in all cases would impose extremely high costs. Therefore, the concept of economic efficiency points to an optimal level of emissions in economic development in which social marginal benefits are equated with social marginal costs. Reducing pollution below this level and raising environmental quality to a higher level than the optimal benefits and costs level would imply costs higher than the benefits gained. The acceptance of this concept of optimal levels of pollution still leaves a wide range of disagreement about the shape and location of the cost and benefit functions. Although costs of environmental protection can in many cases be estimated, the benefits of improving environmental quality are much more difficult to measure and even more difficult to put into value terms. Thus, the measurement of the full benefits and costs of a particular regional development program will be quite difficult. However, despite these difficulties, the evaluation of each project in terms of its social marginal benefits and costs on a project-by-project basis is a necessary but not sufficient condition for efficient economic development, as discussed in the next section. The adoption and enforcement of this type of development guideline is a rational, though not necessarily optimal, type of planning procedure that in effect many regions adopt. Its major disadvantage is that by looking at incremental benefits at the margin, planners may overlook some major opportunities to increase benefits over costs by failing to consider more general, comprehensive, large-scale options. These options would offer potential scale economies and positive external economies through combinations of development programs that would not be obvious as a result of observing only incremental benefits at the margins. For example, instead of separate consideration of a new industrial venture and a new housing development, significant external economies to both developments and to the region might be achieved by simultaneous planning of the two projects. At the limit, a development guideline ruling out all economic or all external diseconomies and all environmental damage could result in a policy of zero future economic development, zero population growth, and the possibility of even negative regional growth. This policy should not be ruled out if it can be demonstrated that the benefits to the local residents of reduced growth exceed costs. Indeed, the no-growth option appears to have increasing attraction for many communities. It is easily conceivable that reducing growth rates and even reducing current levels of economic activity by eliminating (with appropriate compensation) the

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activities whose costs exceed their benefits could leave some communities better off on balance (Cumberland, 1966). If the residents of a region have a utility surface which attaches very high value to open spaces, lack of congestion, unpolluted resources, and a natural environment with a correspondingly high disutility surface for pollution, noise, and congestion; then reduced growth, zero growth, or even negative growth, can be efficient even in terms of economic criteria. Thus, even a zero pollution, zero emissions policy could be rational and efficient depending on the social utility function of the local area. The reduced growth model has particular appeal to affluent regions where the income elasticity of demand for environmental quality is high. A major problem with the approach is that it creates difficulties for the non-affluent members of the region since the achievement of social justice through income redistribution may be difficult in a non-growth region. However, even in a reduced growth economy the real income gains resulting from increased environmental quality may exceed the opportunity costs of foregoing growth. In the longer run, even reduced growth rates for economic development could still permit rising per capita incomes and allow for some income redistribution, provided that population growth could be reduced or reversed. One of the most important advantages of using economic incentives such as emission charges and economic criteria such as benefit-cost analysis (as discussed below) is that if properly applied they tend automatically to generate not only the optimal rates of economic development but also the optimal composition of economic development.

3.3 Adoption of benefit-cost criteria for regional development Management of growth rates and internalization of externalities are policies which play significant roles in optimal planning of regional development, but they are subject to the limitations which have been noted above. A more general analytic framework is provided by the benefit-cost concept. A major problem associated with benefit-cost analysis of developments affecting environmental quality is the difficulty of measuring benefits and costs. Generally, the costs of treating wastes and controlling pollution are more measurable than are the associated benefit functions. Cost functions can be observed from empirical studies or estimated from engineering analyses. However, the benefits of carrying out waste treatment practices and improving environmental quality are difficult to measure because they

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involve non-market processes. The benefits achieved will generally be reduction of damages to health, to welfare and to ecological processes. Although these benefits can be conceptualized, defined, and sometimes even measured in quantitative terms, they are very difficult to put into value terms when ownership rights cannot be enforced and when no market exists for them. Furthermore, even the quantitative measure of functions is not far advanced at this time. Natural scientists have made very little progress in identifying the shape and location of damage functions of even the most toxic wastes except for limited information about lead, mercury, and a few other substances. Information about acute toxicity is limited, and information about the effects of chronic exposure to low level considerations is almost non-existent. The absence of this kind of information can be attributed partially to the failure of communication between natural scientists and social scientists in identifying the appropriate form of information needed for management purposes. Another serious barrier is the complexity of the scientific problems involved. For example, toxicity depends not only on the level and duration of the exposure but also on related factors, such as temperature, syngergism, seasonality, and the sex, age, and other characteristics of the exposed population. The solutions to these problems will require massive research efforts by interdisciplinary groups.1 3.4 Development of economic-environmental planning models While benefit-cost evaluation of each incremental step in regional planning is an appropriate and necessary procedure to follow in the achievement of economic efficiency, such a micro-analytic approach fails to capture many of the important large-scale effects and interrelationships involved in regional development. In planning for the development of an advanced economy, sophisticated, large-scale, general equilibrium models are essential. In fact, large-scale models are necessary even to support benefit-cost analyses. This is particularly true if the benefit-cost analysis will account fully for the direct, indirect, and induced effects involved. 1. One such effort to develop the knowledge needed for the environmental-economic management of a very large estuarine system is indicated by the formation of the Chesapeake Research Consortium. This group has been formed by the University of Maryland, The Johns Hopkins University, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, and the Smithsonian Institution to conduct interdisciplinary research on the management of the Chesapeake Bay.

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While the scope of this paper does not allow for a comprehensive review of regional planning models, a few illustrative examples may be cited. An early example of an effort to introduce environmental relationships into a regional planning model was mentioned above (Cumberland, 1966). A more recent evolution of this model is represented by efforts underway to develop a comprehensive economic-environmental planning model for the State of Maryland. 2 A mathematical description of the model is presented in an appendix to this paper. The development of these models is still in its early stages and many of the necessary data are difficult and expensive to obtain. However, the general approach has many potential advantages. First of all, it permits a full evaluation, for any development program or strategy, of the potential economic benefits in terms of employment, income and government revenues resulting from the developmental project, which can be weighed against costs by government to provide new infra-structure. This approach also evaluates the total environmental damage resulting from emissions of residuals and provides a framework for estimating the cost of treating and controlling the resulting environmental damage. Most of the models available to date for forecasting environmental impacts from economic development are based upon the use of emission coefficients which have been observed or inferred from engineering studies or observation of existing processes. Another approach to this problem, suggested by the materials balance concept, is to anticipate the release of all potential pollutants by requiring producers to account in advance for all possible emissions in terms of specifying the disposition of all inputs which are not fully accounted for in the production of marketed outputs. Another potential advantage of using a disaggregated systems model of regional economic-environmental development is that it may help identify other external economies which could result from joint planning of projects. For example, a waste generation sub-component of these models indicating the type of wastes and by-products generated by each of these activities may make it possible to identify optimal combinations of economic activities such that the wastes of one set of activities could be

2. John H. Cumberland, Curtis C. Harris, Jr., Henry W. Herzog, Jr., A. Thomas King, Robert J. Korbach, Bruce N. Stram, and Ray D. Whitman, Design for a Maryland State planning model with economic-environmental linkages. Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland; see also Cumberland & Korbach (1973).

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used as inputs into other activities, minimizing the net residuals discharged into the environment. One of the most important potential advantages of this disaggregated and detailed approach to the modeling of regional development is that it also permits an evaluation of the distribution of the benefits and costs of development. Provided that there is sufficient detail in the final demand and value added sectors of the model, this approach can identify the groups, the economic activities, and areas which receive the additional income, generate additional sales, pay additional taxes, and receive the environmental impacts. Another advantage of this type of model is that it draws attention to critical factors in evaluating the equity, welfare, and policy implications of regional development. For example, if particular forms of these programs create jobs which require skills not available in the local population, it may be assumed that unless these skills and training can be provided to the local residents, then much of the economic benefits from increased jobs and incomes will go to migrants coming into the area from other areas. If the welfare of the local residents is given priority, then the model should be used to identify those types of developments which result in the hiring of local residents and the enhancement of their skills. All of these equity considerations are becoming increasingly important in regional development planning. One of the most important potential problems in planning the relationships between environmental management and regional development, especially for advanced industrial regions, is that in addition to evaluating the probable direct effects of any development project, there are usually also indirect and induced effects which can be as important or even more important than direct effects of development. An example of this phenomenon is the well-known multiplier effect through which one new activity can generate secondary impacts upon employment and income. Similarly, increases in economic activity can be expected to generate not only direct emissions of wastes and residuals, but the induced economic effects of related activities can also produce additional emissions of wastes and pollutants from related activities. Because of these important, yet often overlooked secondary and indirect consequences of economic development, advanced modeling techniques and advanced forecasting methods are needed for comprehensive planning of economic development and environmental planning. An important objective of this type of model is to illustrate policy options and to help the local residents of regions anticipate as accurately as possible what the probable impact of various

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development alternatives will actually be upon their personal lives and welfare. Although the regional development models generally used to date are static in nature, they can be used to investigate dynamic phenomena through the use of comparative statics and other approaches. An important dynamic aspect of development is that some types of regional development projects can be expected, through agglomeration effects as well as through multiplier and accelerator effects, to set in motion forces which generate future expansion. Thus, some types of activity, especially large-scale activities, if introduced into an area, tend to create irreversible dynamic tendencies, which have serious implications for regional environmental management. This factor should be evaluated in planning regional development. Another important dynamic aspect of any strategy or program is that it generates different types of impacts during the construction phase, operating phase and through its dismantling phase. Rational management throughout all of these phases will require full life cycle planning. In practice, this means that before a project could be developed in a region, the promoters would be required to submit a complete plan describing the development stage, operational stage, and dismantling stage. The plans should identify all materials and other inputs going into the project, fully accounting for all wastes. Life cycle planning would also require developers to provide plans for management of all wastes and environmental impacts and for the full restoration of the environment at the end of the operating process in order to prevent any irreversible damage, such as radio-activity, damage to watersheds, ecological imbalance, and other environmental impacts (Cumberland, 1971, p. 142). A powerful support for implementing life cycle planning and environmental management can be provided by the concept of the environmental statement which is a detailed benefit-cost analysis now required for all federal activity under the U.S. National Environmental Protection Act. An effective regional environmental protection policy would also require the regional equivalent of the environmental statement before any project could be approved. The data and documentation necessary to provide a full-scale cost and benefit analysis, environmental evaluation, and other necessary information throughout the expected life cycle would be required from the planners of such projects under the procedure.

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3.5 The emissions tax as an instrument for regional environmental management One very promising multipurpose tool available to planners for dealing with environmental-economic problems is the emission tax. If the location of the marginal benefit and cost curves can be determined then optimal efficiency can be achieved by a number of processes such as setting an emissions tax at the level which would have the effect of encouraging the optimal level of emissions, production, and environmental quality (Cumberland 1972a). Even though the shape and location of the functions may not be precisely known, there may be advantages in setting emissions taxes even at an initially arbitrary level. This policy has the advantage of both encouraging reduced emissions and of generating revenue which could be used for monitoring pollution and supporting research to increase knowledge about the actual damage functions involved and about optimal methods of treatment. Revenue gained from an emissions tax could also be used for equity purposes to compensate those who may be injured by the emission. This is a particularly important point because even at economically efficient, optimal levels of emission, some parties may be injured. Compensation offers a possible way of dealing with this problem. In terms of public finance theory, objections can be raised against sequestering funds such as those from emissions taxes and against setting them aside in a trust fund for a special purpose such as research on problems of emissions or compensation of those injured. However, a good, practical case can be made for the establishment of this type of environmental trust fund. 3 The use of emissions taxes provides a very promising tool to regional planners for limiting environmental damage, for generating the new knowledge required for achieving improved environmental 3. Experimentation with interdisciplinary advisory commissions supported by environmental taxes used for research and administration has already begun in the State of Maryland in the United States. Funds are accumulated under the Power Plant Siting Act, which provides a variable surcharge on the consumer's monthly electricity bill. Money is used to support several study groups charged with evaluating environmental relationships between power plants and human health and welfare, monitoring emissions, commissioning research, siting power plants, and on related matters. Funds can be used to acquire the least damaging sites for power plants. This very promising beginning could be made even more responsive to optimality considerations by changing the financial arrangement from an ad valorem surcharge on the tax bill to an actual unit emissions tax on radionuclides, thermal releases, output of particulate matter and other pollutants.

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quality, for supporting research, and for compensating the victims of environmental damage from regional and other developments. Other advantages of emissions taxes are that they provide strong incentives for research technologists to find low cost anti-pollution technologies, for producers to find optimal combinations of low pollution location and waste treatment processes, and for consumers to reduce their purchases of items whose production causes pollution.

4.

CONCLUSION

Relationship between regional, national and international environmental policies Because regions, like individuals and enterprises, have strong incentives to shift their environmental burdens elsewhere and to capture environmental benefits from others, the regulation of this type of environmental imperialism between nations as well as between regions must be accepted as a major responsibility of government. The accelerating global increase in density of human activity is generating an awareness of the need for moderation of this problem. Advanced nations, such as the United Kingdom, have national policies on regional development setting the rules of the game within which local regions design their development programs subject to approval at higher levels. Adoption of such national policies on regional development and environmental management provides opportunities to maximize the positive externalities and to minimize the negative externalities through coordination of planning for local transport, urban design, water supply, waste removal, and land use. Potential conflicts exist in cases where there are material divergencies between regional and national values in economic environmental management. In cases where environmental standards in a particular region fall below those of neighbors, environmentally damaging activities are likely to be exported to the region of lower standard. This may be a socially and economically efficient outcome in some instances where regions are willing to trade off and accept environmental damage in exchange for accelerated economic development (Lakhani, 1972). However, there may be potentially serious problems of both equity and efficiency in the event that officials and residents of low income regions do not have access to complete

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information concerning the long-run environmental effects of the development on the region. Clearly, national standards are necessary in some cases to protect regions which, because of lack of information, willingly accept more damage than the benefits would justify. In cases where significant differences in regional, national, or international objectives exist, these differences would, of course, affect the damage functions involved and justify different standards between different regions (Cumberland, 1972b). A quite different set of problems may emerge in the case of regions which want to establish higher standards of environmental development quality than those which are accepted in the rest of the nation or surrounding regions. In general, the establishment of elevated regional environmental standards can have socially beneficial effects through demonstration effects. If residents are willing to forego higher rates of development in exchange for higher rates of environmental quality, then there are clear social advantages in permitting and encouraging such regions to establish high environmental standards. If such preferences become widespread, this can also be beneficial in providing positive incentives for improving technological processes, reducing their externalities and improving their performance. A most important national benefit which can result from local environmental standards which exceed the national average is to provide incentives to the national government itself to establish national plans and policies for regional development and environmental planning. If the efforts of individual regions to establish and enforce high environmental economic standards begin to impose hardships on the nation and on neighboring regions, then the national government will be provided with incentives to carry out planning for economic development and environmental management on a national scale. In fact, until plans are implemented to develop national plans and policies for regional economic development and environmental planning, it is in the regional interest to help move the nation toward responsible national planning. Powerful technologies increasingly generate environmental impacts which cross not only regional and national boundaries but can spread over the surface of the earth. Nuclear energy, supersonic aircraft, weather modification, and oil spills are a few examples. Growing perception of this problem is slowly encouraging the establishment of international environmental cooperation. Until this movement is more widespread nationally and effective internationally, regions which seek high levels

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of environmental protection will be compelled to move ahead in establishing their own standards and programs. This kind of action can provide demonstration effects and incentives to other regions. This brief survey has suggested that while much of the knowledge needed to reconcile economic development with environmental responsibility is already available, the widespread achievement of effective environmental management will require a re-evaluation of all social sciences and their closer integration with natural sciences. APPENDIX

An Economic-Environmental Impact Model for Regional Planning The equations are the following: [Δ X]g [AX] e [AVA] ft [AVA] q [ΑΧ] ρ

= = = = =

[AVA] [AE] [ASK] [ASG] [AGi?]

(1)

(2)

(3) (4) (5) (6)

where [I-A]~i [AY] [Δ*] [AVA] [ A E ]

[ASK] [ASG] [A GR] g e f Ρ t q

Matrix of direct and indirect interindustry coefficients Column vector of user specified changes in Final Demand Column vector of changes in Output Comumn vector of changes in Value-Added Column vector of changes in Employment Matrix of changes in State Revenue Matrix of changes in State Expenditure Matrix of changes in initial waste loadings (Gross Residual) Column vector of value-added to output ratios Column vector of employment to output ratios Matrix of tax revenue to value-added coefficients Matrix of waste loading to output coefficients Statutory tax rates Matrix of state expenditure to value-added coefficients

Source: Cumberland & Korbach (1973).

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REFERENCES

Ayres, R. U., & Kneese, Α. V. (1969) Production, consumption and externalities, American Economic Review, 59 (7), 282-297. Cumberland, J. H. (1966) A regional interindustry model for analysis of development objectives, Regional Science Association Papers, 16: 65-94. (1971) Regional development: Experiences and projects in the United States of America. Paris-The Hague, Mouton (UNRISD Ser., Regional Planning, Vol. 4). (1972a) Establishment of international environmental standards: Some economic and related aspects, Problems in transfrontier pollution, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Pp. 287-314. (1972b) The role of uniform standards in international environmental management, Problems of environmental economics. Paris, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Pp. 239-253. & Korbach, R. J. (1973), A regional interindustry environmental model, Regional Science Association Papers, 30: 61-75. Lakhani, H. A. G. (1972) Static and dynamic relationships between economic development and environmental quality, College Park, Md., University of Maryland. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis. Meadows, D. H. et al. (1972) The limits to growth. New York, Universe Books.

PART TWO

Integration

BENJAMIN HIGGINS

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Welfare economics and the 'unified approach' to development planning

One of the barriers to collaboration of economists with other social scientists in a truly 'united approach' to the planning of economic development is the reluctance which many academic economists still feel to break away entirely from the precepts of welfare economics. Even practical planners trained in the 'received doctrine' of contemporary economics often slip in the basic concepts of welfare economics by the back door. As we shall see below, planning in terms of growth of national income has no sense unless the tenets of welfare economics are accepted. Other social scientists are naturally suspicious of 'welfare economics', which is often cast in terms that mystify the untutored and which seems to have so little to do with 'welfare' as the word is ordinarily used. The problems of communication between economists and others interested in development are not simplified by the fact that in recent years the 'old' welfare economics, and even the 'new' welfare economics, have been subjected to searching criticisms by economists themselves. It is by no means clear what the critics wish to put in the place of 'old' or 'new' welfare economics; and the philosophical implications of the 'new welfare economics', which starts with a 'welfare function' given to the economist or planner by someone else - presumably a government responsible to the people and responsive to their wishes, have been studiously avoided by most economists. From a methodological or philosophical point of view methods of development planning that take off from the received doctrine of economics are extremely shaky. Yet these methods are clothed in such fine raiment - econometric models of the economy with anything up to 1,600 equations, optimal growth theories, input-output matrices, linear programming, etc. - that the outsiders, and unfortunately even a good many economists, have difficulty in spotting on the corpus economicus

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beneath where exactly the fundamental weaknesses are. The outsider remains suspicious and discontented with planning based on economics, but does not know exactly how to dislodge the splendidly clothed body of economic analysis from its throne. In this paper we shall strip the patient of his splendid robes and try to see just where and why he is so unhealthy. We shall then suggest a cure, or at least a palliative, to permit him to work more effectively in the production of development plans.

BASIC TENETS OF THE ECONOMIC APPROACH

Underlying the economists' approach to development planning are three shibboleths retained from the past and held with varying degrees of tenacity: 1. Maximizing social welfare is a 'good thing'. 2. The maximum welfare position can be determined (at least conceptually) by rigorous 'scientific' analysis, without the intervention of value judgements (or at least without value judgements of economists or planners). 3. Choices in the market provide information about individual welfare. (People know what is good for them or at least what they 'want' and behave accordingly in spending their income, choosing a job, etc.) In the neo-classical system of economic analysis these three philosophical tenets were blended into a defence of the free market as the ideal instrument for attaining all conceivable goals of economic policy, and virtually all forms of governmental 'planning', or interference with the market, except monopoly control, were shown to 'reduce welfare'. Relative prices were supposed to measure relative marginal utility, or satisfaction, or welfare, gained from consuming various commodities, for all individuals. Marginal costs were supposed to measure satisfactions foregone in the production of any commodity, since these costs would be the sum of the value of alternative outputs possible by using the same final units of all factors of production to produce something else. Thus an allocation of resources that equated marginal costs with prices would mean that output of every commodity is expanded until the satisfactions gained by society from producing one more unit of any commodity is precisely counterbalanced by the satisfactions foregone in diverting the necessary resources from production of something else. In this way social welfare

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is accordingly maximized. Meanwhile inflation and unemployment were traced to 'market imperfections'. Presumably everyone knows by now that the conditions which make this theory 'true', once the three basic tenets are accepted, do not exist in the real world: pure competition, perfect knowledge, perfect foresight, no indivisibilities, complete substitutability of factors of production, etc. Obviously these conditions bear no resemblance to any real economy or any real society. But so long as the three basic tenets are accepted, it is still possible to 'plan' in the form of 'patching the market'; that is, markets which approximate the conditions for 'optimal' operation would be left alone, and the government would intervene in the others, by legislation, controls, monetary and fiscal policy, taxes and subsidies, etc., so as to bring market conditions closer to the ideal. But once 'patched', the market would be left to do the job of generating development more or less automatically. This position is essentially the one taken by Milton Friedman, Harry Johnson, Basil Yamey and the other 'latter day saints of laissez-faire'. I do not wish to be concerned here with the question, complex enough in itself, as to how easily the market may be patched in various countries, so as to make it conform to the ideal conditions. Rather, I wish to attack the basic tenets themselves. 1. Maximizing welfare. It is curious that so few economists should have asked themselves, 'Why maximize welfare? For whom? What sense does it make?' In truth it makes no philosophical sense whatsoever. Even if 'welfare' could be as precisely measured as gallons of water, no purpose is served by 'maximizing' this quantity in any society. There is no one in the society, except a few economists, who would be pleased because welfare is maximized. Do we wish to maximize welfare for someone outside the society? God, Allah, Krishna? Economists cling to the concept of welfare-maximization because it permits mathematical solutions to policy problems and seems to justify the marginal analysis with which they are familiar and feel at home. But ultimately the maximization of social welfare requires the equalization of marginal welfare (utility, satisfaction, ophelimity) of all individuals in the society. Accordingly income must be redistributed away from those less capable of enjoyment towards those more capable of enjoyment: from the sick to the healthy, from the weak to the strong, from old to young, from the uneducated to the educated, from the primitive to the cultured, from those with simple to those with luxurious tastes, etc. Caviar and champagne must not be

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wasted on those who have not cultivated the taste for them. Is such a society really defensible philosophically? It should also be pointed out that there is a possible conflict between the income distribution required by the 'maximize welfare' tenet and the income necessary to justify the whole system. For in order that the 'marginal cost equals price' rule should represent an 'optimal allocation of resources' it is necessary that actual payment to factors of production (income) should be equal to the value of their marginal product. Each factor of production draws from the national income what it contributes to it. Now in the advanced capitalist societies the income distribution produced by such 'productivity ethics' may approach closely enough the income distribution that maximizes welfare. The gentleman with vast inherited wealth who 'contributes' his capital to society will have an income equal to the 'marginal productivity' of capital, times all the units of capital he provides, and his income will be high. Such a gentleman is also likely to have highly cultivated tastes, to be healthy and educated, and thus to require a high income in order to 'maximize welfare' of the society. But 'maximizing welfare' is likely to require an even more unequal distribution than the requirements of 'productivity ethics'. My high income is based partly on inherited intelligence and partly on inherited wealth; yet so varied are my interests and so refined are my tastes that I need even more income than the free market would bring me, if social welfare is to be maximized. But redistribution of income in favour of the super-enjoyers must be achieved without disturbing the resource allocation brought about by 'productivity ethics' - and that may not be easy. Of course economists do not really approve the kind of society I have pictured above. The neo-classical economists were always a bit uncomfortable when problems of income distribution were raised. They pointed to the incomparability of marginal utilities of income of different individuals, the necessity of preserving wertfreiheit (freedom from value judgements), and the consequent inability of economists to say anything 'scientific' about income distribution. Some of them took refuge in the suggestion that policy with respect to income distribution must be a political decision, and that once this decision is made the economist can then determine what resource allocation will 'maximize welfare'. The 'Pareto optimum' is substituted for true maximization of welfare: Each individual goes as far as he can in the satisfaction of his wants without reducing the capacity of others to satisfy theirs. But the Pareto optimum is consistent with any distribution of income (or welfare) whatsoever.

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Also, the problem remains of redistributing income without altering the resource allocation that results when costs are equal to factor payments and marginal costs equal price. Economists have not been willing to admit, however, that the very concept of maximizing welfare is meaningless because abandoning the concept is too inconvenient. Others, wishing to appear more sophisticated and to retain the facade of scientific aloofness, suggest attaching weights to incomes of different social groups and then 'maximizing welfare'. But in these solutions the link between incomes, costs, prices and resource allocation which is supposed to justify the free market is broken. The basic value judgements about income distribution or weighting determine the whole result. Wertfreiheit disappears. Once it is admitted that some basic concept of social justice must be substituted for the concept of maximizing welfare (in the sense of equalizing marginal satisfactions) is it not better to abandon the tenet of welfare maximization altogether? If one wants to retain some overriding consideration of economic policy that can be expressed quantitatively, is it not more easily defensible in moral philosophy terms to aim at equalizing average or total utility, or satisfaction, or welfare? The implications for income distribution are the reverse of maximizing aggregate welfare of the society as a whole. Income would be redistributed from the healthy to the chronically ill, from the strong to the weak, from the educated and cultured to the uneducated and uncultured, from more intelligent to less intelligent, from rich to poor, from wealthy to less wealthy. Not only does such an approach strike a more responsive chord in most people, it comes much closer to what most societies actually aim at doing. Why then cling to the shibboleth that 'maximizing' welfare is a 'good thing'? 2. Value judgements. At this point many economists retreat to the second and third tenets. 'All right', they will say, 'of course we are not really trying to maximize welfare in the sense of equating marginal satisfactions, nor do we accept the implications of "productivity ethics". We agree that society should aim at an income distribution more equal than would result from either of these, possibly conflicting, principles. But we cannot say what the optimal distribution of income is; someone else has to decide for us. Moreover, we cannot sit in judgement as to what is good for people. If people prefer "pot" to paintings, we have to accept the fact that welfare is better promoted by producing more marijuana than by producing more paintings. What we do insist is that once it is established what a society wants, there is a particular resource allocation which maximizes the degree of attainment of those wants

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(Pareto optimum), and that is what we call maximizing welfare.' Some economists will add, Ά free market provides the best information on what people want by way of goods and services, once income distribution is settled, and is the best mechanism for allocating resources so as to give people what they want'. In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries the insistence on wertfreiheit was linked to the third tenet: that market choices measure satisfaction or welfare for society as a whole. No economist holds this position today. Even the most ardent of the 'latter day saints of laissezfaire' admits the need for government intervention in the market to assure steady growth. Extremists like Milton Friedman may wish to limit government intervention to assurance of steady expansion of the money supply plus some sort of incomes policy (including subsidies for education); but even such limited intervention requires a high degree of sophistication if it is to be carried out effectively. Most economists, however, retreat to the position that it is for the government to make the political value judgements involved in weighting of the various objectives in the welfare function of a society, and once in possession of this quantified welfare function the economist can determine the optimal solution with no value judgements on his part. In this roundabout way wertfreiheit is thought to be preserved. How can intelligent and highly trained men cling to such nonsense? In the first place, it is obvious that no group of politicians is able to provide the economist or planner with a precise, completely quantified welfare function at the outset of the planning process. Politicians don't think that way. They like to promise their people everything at once, or to demand vague and generalized sacrifices in terms of generally accepted national goals, like winning a war, or defending the free world, or making Communism strong enough to be safe. The very idea of attaching weights to raising per capita income on the one hand or reducing unemployment on the other is repugnant to politicians. 'Do both', they will say, and will make value judgements only when convinced that they must, and when the options have been clearly defined and quantified by the planners towards the end of the planning process (more of this below). An economic theory of planning based on the tenet that planning begins only when the welfare function is defined is useless in the context of actual planning in virtually every country in the world. But there are more fundamental, philosophical reasons for rejecting this tenet. The assumptions under which the determination of a welfare

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function by a government could lead to maximization of social welfare, or to social justice, or to a philosophically defensible social situation, are no less rigorous and no less unrealistic than those underlying the defence of the free market as the instrument of welfare maximization. The government must have perfect knowledge of what the society wants, perfect foresight as to future events, perfect knowledge as to how the relative importance of various social objectives changes in the course of attainment, etc., and must be prepared to eliminate from its consideration any other element save 'social welfare' in this sense. How far from reality these assumptions are is apparent. What gives economists the right to accept them without question? What reason have we to believe that choices of politicians are a better guide to what society wants than choices in the market, for all the imperfections of the market? Total reliance on either the political process or the market to determine what constitutes social progress has no scientific or philosophical foundation. But economists will do anything rather than abandon their 'sophisticated' technique of analysis, and use of these requires some concept of'welfare' that can be 'maximized'. 3. Market choices. And so we come back to market choices. Now let us state at once that within a social group with more or less the same level of income, and with respect to familiar and frequently consumed commodities, relative prices do tell us something about relative marginal satisfaction. If Indonesian peasants are prepared to pay Rp. 50 for either a pack of kretek cigarettes or a bottle of Coca-Cola, I am quite prepared to accept this fact as an indication that, given their incomes and the quantities of kretek and Coca-Cola each individual consumes, the satisfaction derived from consuming one more pack of cigarettes or one more Coca-Cola per day or per week is about the same. And that is a useful piece of information. But there are several limitations on the value of this information for planning: 1. It tells us nothing about average or total satisfaction gained by each individual in consuming kretek and Coca-Cola. Some individuals, in order to reduce relative marginal satisfaction to the same level, so as to equal price, will consume more of one or both of these commodities than others, and so, if marginal utilities are identical for all, derive more total satisfaction (welfare) from them than other individuals. Moreover, we cannot be sure that marginal utility curves are identical; some people may get much more 'kick' out of kretek or Coca-Cola than others. Their marginal utility curves will be higher, their total 'welfare' greater, so far

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as these two commodities are concerned. The market information is fully useful only if we accept the first tenet, that it is 'good' to maximize aggregate welfare of society as a whole. If we are aiming at equalizing total rather than marginal satisfactions, the market information does not help very much. It is not, however, totally useless. It does tell us, for these two commodities, that there is no apparent reason for pushing the expansion of one of them more than the other, unless we have reason to believe that marginal utility of one will fall more rapidly than that of the other as consumption increases, or unless we know that marginal cost of one will rise more steeply than the marginal cost of the other. 2. The information regarding relative prices tells us nothing about relative costs - that is, about the degree of monopoly power in each market. This limitation is purely technical, however, and degree of monopoly power is subject to analysis. In principle, shadow prices reflecting relative monopoly power could be substituted for actual market prices in the planning process. Once shadow pricing starts, however, the role of the market and its philosophical underpinnings become a bit vague. 3. The market choices tell us nothing about long-run welfare. This fact is recognized by virtually all societies. Nearly all countries have sumptuary legislation of one kind or another: limitations on or prohibition of consumption of drugs, alcohol, poisons, explosives, weapons, etc. The economist may say that he cannot judge the relative value to society of 'pot' or paintings, but if marijuana is illegal in the society for which development plans are being prepared, the economist who believes in wertfreiheit must accept the fact that the government has assigned a negative weight to the value of marijuana in the welfare function, even if he is personally convinced that 'cigarettes and whiskey and wild, wild women' are in fact more harmful. But from a philosophical point of view, once it is admitted that people do not always know what is good for their welfare, and that market choices may actually run counter to welfare, where can we stop? Once again, there is little reason to suppose that politicians are always better informed than the electorate as to what is 'good' for them. We are on very dangerous ground here. How can we justify taking the politicians' evaluation, where legislation exists, and the market evaluation where it doesn't? One might reply that sumptuary laws usually apply to forms of consumption that are considered harmful to society as a whole as well as to the individual consumer: The alcoholic or the drug addict injures his whole family, and others as well, not only himself. But can we accept

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public opinion as a measure of true welfare, irrespective of knowledge? In really poor countries, malnutrition and undernutrition do far more harm than drink or drugs. And since in these countries hours of work per day or per week are related to nutritional levels, the very possibility of take-off into sustained development may depend on improved nutritional standards. Everyone's welfare is limited by the poor nutrition of others, as well as of themselves. Poor nutrition also affects resistance to disease, with harmful effects on society as a whole. It has some influence on the returns to investment in education. The whole development process is full of feedbacks. In such a situation, how can one possibly justify freedom of choice with respect to diet, or with respect to the product-mix in the agricultural sector? Should people be allowed to choose polished over unpolished rice? Should farmers be permitted to grow rice rather than maize or cassava when yields in terms of nutritional value are higher for maize and cassava, just because people 'prefer' rice? What is the fine line, if there is one, between outlawing marijuana and outlawing polished rice? And if one goes all the way to the position that in poor countries sumptuary legislation should reflect everything that is known with regard to relation of various goods and services to long-run welfare, what is left of the market as an indicator of welfare and mechanism for achieving it?

GROWTH OF NATIONAL INCOME AND WELFARE

At this point let us note that, quite apart from the well-known limitations of growth models (see, for example, Lloyd G. Reynolds, The three worlds of economics. New Haven and London, 1971. Pp. 272-310), accepting growth of national income or of per capita income as an indicator of 'development', in the sense of generalized social progress, requires acceptance of the three tenets analyzed above. National income, in its ordinary sense, is the total value of goods and services produced and sold at market prices. If individual market prices are meaningless as a measure of welfare than the aggregation of these prices times quantities into national income is also meaningless as a measure of welfare. And even if the prices were a precise measure of contribution to welfare, maximizing the growth of national income would make sense only if maximizing welfare at each point of time makes sense. The limitations of national income as a measure of social progress are

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of course recognized by economists. But planning models based on maximizing growth of national income are so familiar and so convenient that these limitations are largely overlooked. Typically the economist deals with his misgivings in one of two ways: Either he replaces market prices with shadow prices for some components of national income (prices above market for health and education, say, and below market for harmful or undesirable products like marijuana and polished rice) and seeks to maximize national income with these shadow prices; or he adds other objectives to the 'welfare function', such as full employment, improved income distribution among regions and social groups, certain educational and health goals, etc. But here we are back in the same morass. Who determines the shadow prices, or the components and weights in the welfare function, and on what basis? The usual answer is, once again, 'the government'. But we have already itemized the reasons why this answer is methodologically and philosophically unacceptable. 'Patching national income figures' to take account of other objectives is certainly no better an approach to planning than 'patching the market' and, in the final analysis, amounts to the same thing.

A NEW APPROACH

All this being so, would it not be both more honest and more useful for economists to come out from behind their flimsy fa9ade of wertfreiheit, return to their intellectual forefathers, such as Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill, and be frankly and openly moral philosophers as well as economic analysts? A scientific value judgement is not a mere expression of taste or opinion; it is something that can be logically defended on the basis of empirical and theoretical knowledge. Economists should have more knowledge of the economy and its workings than other people and should not hesitate to discuss the implications of this knowledge for choice of objectives as well as for means of attaining them. To begin with, when planning for LDC's let us abandon the shibboleth that 'maximizing welfare' has real content, and let us rather concentrate on the social ills of underdevelopment and seek to eliminate them. Let us no longer pretend that we are indifferent as to the relative importance of various ills for true social welfare ('true' social welfare, to my mind, would come close to equalizing welfare of all members of society and then maximizing the aggregate). And let us try to determine more carefully

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those decisions which can be left to a free market and those which cannot. What are the evils of underdevelopment apart from poverty, which is just another word for underdevelopment? 1. Unemployment Unemployment and underemployment must come at the top of any list of the ills of LDC's. It is a major cause of poverty and the major cause of maldistribution of income (as between the employed and the unemployed). It is a clear and simple loss of welfare, not only for the unemployed and underemployed but also for others in society. Productivity, incomes, and welfare of other members of society are raised by increasing the number of productively employed people in the economy. Unemployment and underemployment are also, as we shall argue more fully below, unnecessary and inexcusable. There is nearly always some way of putting people to work which will yield social benefits in excess of social costs, the latter consisting only of additional nutritional requirements of people who work rather than remaining idle. 2. Malnutrition and undernutrition Second priority in development planning might be given to elimination of malnutrition and undernutrition. Why second to unemployment? The reason is simple. The so-called 'conflict' between reducing unemployment and other social objectives, such as raising per capita income, is largely illusory. To be sure, there are problems of choosing technology and product-mix; but these do not mean that full employment is inconsistent with maximum national income. The apparent conflict arises from comparing the money wage that must be paid to absorb the unemployed with the money value of output, and the unwillingness of many societies to pay more money for work done than the money value of the output. But most societies provide the unemployed with basic necessities in any case; the true social cost of employing them is not the money wage paid, but the cost of the additional nutritional requirements (and perhaps costs of transport to work, etc.) for the man who works rather than remaining idle. It is nearly always possible to find work with a social value higher than this true social cost. In the case of elimination of malnutrition and undernutrition, however, it must be admitted that in some societies the achievement of this goal

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may require some sacrifice in terms of other goals. As already indicated, improved nutrition will bring feedbacks in the form of longer hours of work (and so higher output), improved health (and so reduced outlays for public health), higher returns to investment in education, etc. But it cannot be said with assurance that in every country in the world these feedbacks will outweigh the costs of eliminating altogether undernourishment and malnourishment. Ultimately, the inclusion of this objective in second place on the list of priorities reflects a basic and simple value judgement: that any decent society provides all its members with enough to eat, so as to permit them to realize to the full their capacity to contribute to society and to enjoy life. It is also my belief, however, on what I know of the empirical situation, that in most countries the net cost of an ambitious nutrition program would be small, and that in many of them there would be a net gain. Eliminating nutritional deficiencies is not, it must be emphasized, the same thing as self-sufficiency in foodstuffs. Every country has the choice between meeting nutritional requirements by producing food at home or, by exporting some commodities for which it has a comparative advantage, importing foodstuffs. Finding the optimal solution to this set of alternatives will be one of the planners' major tasks. 3. Education Without going so far as to describe education as a 'human right' (no one can really have a 'right' to something that may deprive others of the same or another 'right' or even deprive the same person of another 'right', such as health) we can agree that each society should endeavour to provide all of its members with the opportunity to develop their capacity to use innate talents, raise their productivity, and to enjoy life. In this sentence the word 'use' should perhaps be underlined. No society is morally obliged to train people who will never have an opportunity to use their training, because the economy is not sufficiently advanced to employ productively all people with all types of training. Even under-utilization of training is a luxury LDC's cannot afford. There is obviously a close relationship between the proper planning of education and the elimination of unemployment. (This statement holds, even though in some countries the rate of unemployment increases with level of education.) 'Manpower planning' in the sense of fitting training to jobs (or jobs to training) might be regarded as a minimal requirement of

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educational planning. To some extent product-mix and employment opportunities can be adjusted to the supply of skills; good manpower planning does not consist merely in adjusting training to a pre-determined product-mix and choice of technology. The trick is to adjust training and product-mix together, so as to obtain an optimal solution. Few countries will, or should be, satisfied with just enough education to meet manpower requirements. A large part of manpower requirements can be met by on-the-job training. Most governments will be concerned with the contribution of education to the 'style' of society and to individual fulfilment. But simple slogans such as 'universal primary school education' can seldom be defended. The problem is much too complex to be solved by such slogans. One can think of a kind of 'Pareto optimum' in the field of education. Up to a certain point, education of others, if it takes the right form, will raise the welfare of all. It will increase productivity all 'round, will probably improve general levels of public health, and may contribute to law and order. Against these gains must be set the sacrifices entailed in putting more and more resources, especially high-quality human resources, into the educational system. The educational system in any country should be expanded at least to the point where the social gains are just offset by social cost. Up to this point education may be considered primarily a 'capital good', something which raises the productivity of the whole society, and thus improves the potential of the society for raising general levels of welfare. Beyond the point where more education of somebody, in some form, raises potential welfare of all members of society, further education may be regarded as a consumption good; productivity of some members of society may be raised still higher by more training, but only at a net cost to society as a whole. Here we may revert to one of the more meaningful tenets of welfare economics: If the individual who wants more training is willing to compensate the rest of society for their loss, and if he makes a net gain, then the society makes a net gain. In other words, if individuals are willing to cover the full costs of their own education, there seems to be no reason why they should not be allowed to spend their incomes in that way. There may also, however, be a case for 'sumptuary legislation' with respect to education. That is, it may be felt that many people underestimate the value to them as a consumers' good of additional education. In that case, the government may wish to subsidize education (up to the point of providing it free), and require compulsory education, beyond the

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point where social gains in terms of higher productivity, etc., just offset social costs. Most societies do, of course, provide free education up to some point and require compulsory education up to some point. However, I suspect that in so doing most governments are under the impression that they are still moving towards the point where social returns to investment in education as a capital good equals social costs. It is probable that the value of education, especially formal education, as a capital good, is overestimated in most countries. On the other hand, it may well be that its value as a consumer's good is underestimated. Another element in the decision of so many countries to provide free, compulsory education up to some level is the feeling, which is perfectly justified, that it is extremely difficult to determine learning capacity of children before they have entered school, and that all children should be given the chance to demonstrate a capacity to learn. Even some advanced countries, like Canada and the United Kingdom, where children are directed into different 'channels' of education at a fairly early stage of their education, do not make adequate provision for 'late starters'. Many LDC's, unfortunately, cannot afford adequate provision for late starters, but they should give all children some chance to show capacity to learn. This approach to the planning of education leads to the conclusion that once full employment and adequate nutrition are assured, every society should endeavour to provide: 'x' years of formal school to all to determine learning capacities; 'y' years of technical, vocational, and professional training to each individual according to his learning capacity and employment opportunities, up to the point where social gains equal social costs; 'm' years of subsidized formal education to offset any underevaluation of education as a consumers' good; 'n' years of additional education of any kind for which the consumer is willing and able to pay full costs. The educational planner's task is to determine 'x', 'y', a n d ' m ' and to measure 'full cost' as a basis for determining 'n'. 4. Health Much the same approach might be suggested for the public health sector. Up to a certain point public health may be regarded as a capital good; if the pattern of public health spending is rigorously determined according to costs and benefits, the latter measured in terms of loss of productivity

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through ill health, there will be some level of investment in public health up to which further outlays will improve everyone's level of welfare. That level, equivalent to 'y' in education, we might call 'b'. The equivalent in the health field of the 'x' in education might be regular examinations to determine capacity to benefit from specific treatment. Let us call this basic health service 'a'. Beyond that there will be additional outlays on individual health for which individuals may be willing to pay full costs ('d'). Finally, if people underestimate the value of health as a consumers' good, or if there are indivisibilities (as there surely are), there would be a case for subsidizing health beyond the point where its contribution to productivity, etc., just equals its cost ('c'). Once again, the public health planner's job is to determine 'a', 'b', and 'c' and to measure costs of 'd\ Many people feel uncomfortable at the idea of allowing some people more access to health - and thus ultimately to life - than others, just because they can better aiford to cover full costs. However, most of the existing differences in access to health facilities will be eliminated by the guarantee of adequate nutrition, plus 'a', 'b', and 'c'. If income differences are to be tolerated at all, there seems to be little justification in denying those with higher incomes the right to spend them on additional health services. The real problem arises, of course, in the case of expensive devices for prolonging life, such as heart transplants. Should rich people be allowed heart transplants and poor people not? It seems to me that if people are rich because the society wants them to be rich, in accordance with the established incomes policy, the answer must be 'yes'. How can one justify a philosophy which says, in effect, 'it is socially just for Mr. A to live seventy years in luxury and Mr. Β to live seventy years in poverty, but it is not just for Mr. A to have a heart transplant to live another year and Mr. Β not'. N o society yet can provide heart transplants for all, and such rare and expensive medical services must be rationed in some fashion. If a particular society does not wish to leave this kind of rationing to the market, the only alternative is to set up alternative criteria and pass legislation to give them effect.

Incomes policy In poor countries guaranteeing employment, adequate nutrition, and minimal levels of education and public health facilities will go a long way towards removing inequalities of income. It may be as far as most L D C ' s are willing and able to go towards an incomes policy. Some set of incen-

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tives must be retained to induce people to undertake the difficult, risky, or unpleasant jobs every society needs done. To date virtually every society, including the socialist ones, has found it convenient to use income incentives. If income is to be used as an incentive, there must be income left over for that purpose after basic requirements for all citizens have been met. The more prosperous LDC's could, if they wished, introduce an incomes policy guaranteeing some minimum over and above nutrition, education and health, and still leave a part of national income to be used for incentive purpose. They could also set ceilings to income, introduce progressive taxation, etc. To my mind, it does not matter very much if there are a few rich people in a society so long as there are no poor people; but if one is not prepared to accept some inequality of income for incentive purposes, I find it hard to justify any form of egalitarianism other than equalization of total welfare (satisfaction). Feedbacks It is worth noting that among the four objectives that we have thus far included in the welfare function there are feedbacks in every direction. Increased employment improves education by enhancing the opportunities for on-the-job training. It simplifies the administration of public health programmes by bringing people together in places of work. It requires better nutrition, but also permits better nutrition, not only by raising total output but also by making people more easily accessible for food programmes. Education (of the proper kind) improves employment opportunities, contributes to health by increasing knowledge and by bringing more people into scope of school education programmes, etc. Improved nutrition permits more employment, improves health, and raises the yield on investment in education, etc. Health programmes reduce unemployment, make education more effective, and can be one vehicle for improving nutrition. It is doubtful whether any other possible components of the welfare function generate as many positive feedbacks as these four. Other'necessities' The basic necessities are sometimes considered to be 'food, clothing, and shelter'. This concept, however, is one that grew up in the now advanced countries and is less relevant to our present task of designing a universal

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basic welfare function for LDC's. Most LDC's are in the tropics and clothing does not matter much. Many people in LDC's are 'badly dressed' but few are inadequately clothed in a sense in which health is threatened. It is doubtful whether more or better clothing would significantly raise productivity in any LDC. To be sure, as incomes rise, more and better clothing will be one of the things people will want. A new kain at Rahmedan is very important to the prestige of an Indonesian peasant; but a new bicycle might serve even better in this respect, and might raise his productivity more. Similar considerations apply to housing. Many people in LDC's would like better housing, just as they might like a motor scooter. A larger and finer house is a symbol of status in any society. But few people in LDC's are 'ill housed' in a sense in which their health or productivity is threatened by poor housing. True, some residents of the favellas, bidonvilles, or shanty towns that abound in or near the large cities of LDC's are threatened with ill health because of inadequate water supply, lack of sanitation, open sewers, etc. But it is this sort of problem, more urban than rural, which constitutes the 'evil' of underdevelopment, rather than inadequate shelter as such. No one has yet established a clearcut correlation between improved shelter and higher productivity. Water supply, sanitation, etc., belong to the health sector, and there is no ground for putting housing on the same level in the welfare function with education, health, nutrition, and employment. Infrastructure Obviously sectors like transport and power are important for development, and development plans must give proper weight to investment in them. However, I would not put such sectors in the welfare function. As one who spends a large proportion of his life being transported, it is hard for me to imagine that more transport is a clearcut contribution to anyone's welfare. Nor is there much evidence that if some people are hauled about more than at present, the productivity of others is necessarily raised. There may of course be cases where such complementarity exists. Bad transport may prevent foremen, supervisors, engineers from getting to the workers. People must get to work somehow if the work is not brought to them, and travel may be one of the ways in which people wish to spend increases in income. Domestic travel may contribute to national unity, although even that is by no means certain. (Familiarity breeds

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contempt, it is said.) It cannot be maintained that people who are provided with more or better transport facilities are inevitably healthier, better educated, better nourished, and more employable. Of course, good transport facilities permit the movement of food from surplus to deficit areas, make it easier for doctors to get to patients or patients to doctors, help highschool students to get to school, and workers to their jobs. But the demand for transport is essentially a derived demand; transport is something people want in order to attain other objectives. Traveling on an overcrowded bus with the goats and the chickens is a dubious pleasure. It seems better, therefore, to treat transport as a derived demand in the planning process, or as a bottle-neck-breaker and leading sector. In short, it is convenient to treat transport as a 'national good', something which cannot be imported, in the Tinbergen terminology; and following Tinbergen's suggestion, to derive transport requirements from estimated output of other goods and services, rather than putting it directly into the welfare function. That does not mean, of course, that the construction of transport facilities must always follow the output of other goods and services in time. Sometimes, as in the case of the Brazilia-Belem road, a new transport facility opens up new production possibilities. But even in such cases the need for transport is still derived as a requirement for attainment of other objectives. In this sense transport is in the same category as fertilizer, or improved seed, or machinery. It is a highly important factor of production, but not a basic objective in itself. The same may be said of energy. Power is a basic requirement of the production process. Development plans must assure a supply of power sufficient to permit the execution of other projects in the plan. But the supply of energy is not directly related to welfare. A society is not necessarily 'better off' if it is only 'better-powered'; and if the superior supply of power is to raise welfare it must be reflected in higher output of other things. Rural electrification may raise levels of education, but only if books and radios are provided as well as lighting. Energy is a crucial sector. It can best be treated as a derived demand in the planning process. Restraints Economists will no doubt have noted that no mention has been made thus far of the 'two gaps' so dear to the economic planner's heart: The gap between investment requirements and domestic savings capacity, which must be filled if inflationary pressure is to be contained, and the gap

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between foreign exchange earnings and foreign exchange requirements, which must be filled if foreign exchange reserves are not to disappear and imports of strategic materials and equipment threatened. Some of the literature on planning seems to suggest that filling these two gaps is the basic objective of planning. In fact, however, neither the prevention of inflation nor the prevention of loss of foreign exchange reserves can be regarded as basic objectives of development. So far as inflation is concerned, Wicksell said the last word many years ago: If all prices and incomes rose together, nothing could be less important than the amount of money in circulation or the level of prices. Some countries, such as Brazil, where inflation has been chronic for centuries and violent in recent years, have developed institutional frameworks such that real conditions come very close to those stipulated by Wicksell. Prices and incomes do move together, and no social group with any political power, including workers, farmers, industrialists, financiers, landowners, tenants, widows and orphans, or government officials really suffered by inflation. Indeed so indifferent were all social groups to inflation that efforts of government to contain it after 1964 received no enthusiastic support from any quarter. Of course, inflation can become a nuisance. Inflation tends to become cumulative at some point. Money loses its function as a unit of account, and accounting becomes difficult. Not all countries yet have the institutional framework which would make price rises of, say, forty percent per year a matter of indifference. In any country there is some degree of inflation that must be regarded as 'too much'. It is part of the planner's job to determine how much is 'too much', and the need to avoid too much is a basic restraint. Similar remarks may be made concerning the foreign exchange gap. The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is not a social objective; it contributes to no one's welfare. On the contrary, it is the depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which permits a country to consume more than it produces, which raises welfare. But, of course, once reserves run out no country can spend more foreign exchange than it can earn or borrow. Execution of development programmes may be hampered by inability to import needed raw materials and equipment, or the foodstuffs needed to expand employment. Thus availability of foreign exchange must also be considered as a constraint in the planning process. It makes a good deal of difference, however, when inflation and balance of payments deficits are treated as constraints rather than treating the

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closing of the 'two gaps' as targets. We have suggested above that in most countries unemployment can be eliminated at no net social cost, since it should always be possible to put people to work - even when combining only labour with other kinds of labour - in a way that will raise output by more than the additional nutritional requirements. But those who think of price stability and balance of payments equilibrium as basic targets may object to this policy, on the grounds that it may increase consumption at the expense of savings, and that it may increase consumption of imports or potential exports and so bring a deterioration in the balance of payments. But when the 'gaps' are treated only as restraints, one is led to study the situation further. One might distinguish three cases: 1. The unemployed are put to work producing the goods which they themselves consume. For example, the Malaysian government may put men to work on unsettled government land growing rice. If the additional output equals the additional consumption, there is no increase in either 'gap'. 2. The additional output consists of goods not sold in the market (for example, educational services in the form of putting the educated unemployed to work teaching children not in school, in the villages) while the increased consumption consists of goods in the market (foodstuffs). In this case there may be a net reduction in the flow of savings, or deterioration in balance of payments, or both. The answer is not, however, that the policy must be abandoned. The answer is, assuming that the additional inflationary pressure or balance of payments problem is considered beyond the limits of tolerance, to use policy instruments to reduce the consumption of the formerly employed. Some redistribution of income from formerly employed to newly employed is needed. 3. The increase in employment brings a ratio of increased output of capital goods to increased output of consumer's goods higher than the ratio of increased demand for capital goods to increased demand for consumers' goods. Savings rises less than investment, consumption rises more than output of consumers' goods. Here we have a typical Hayek (or Marx) disequilibrium of the kind that was once thought to give rise to inflationary booms followed by depressions. The investment-minussavings gap increases. Once again, however, the solution is not to abandon the employment programme, but to redistribute income, raise taxes, shift the pattern of government spending, etc., so as to restore the equilibrium

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between savings and investment. If the previously employed were made to pay taxes equal to the value of new educational services provided, for example, while the government used extra tax revenues to purchase the extra output of capital goods, the problem would be solved. 4. The ratio of increased output of domestic goods to increased output of internationally traded goods may be higher than the ratio of increased demand for domestic goods to increased demand for internationally traded goods. Prices of domestic goods would fall, and pressure on foreign exchange reserves would develop. But here again, the answer is to use other policy instruments to shift the pattern of consumption, in public and private sectors combined, so as to restore equilibrium.

CONCLUSIONS

Where does all this leave us? The moral problem posed for the planner if he finds himself serving, or is asked to serve, a government which he considers to be vicious, reactionary, corrupt or hopelessly incompetent is a separate issue, which we will not attempt to tackle here. In endeavouring to draw some conclusions from the foregoing analysis, I shall assume that the planners are dealing with governments with a normal interest in staying in power; who believe that the promise of development and ultimately visible improvements in general welfare are needed to stay in power; and who have sufficient integrity and comprehension to carry on a meaningful dialogue with the professional planners and high level civil servants who are engaged in the preparation of development plans. There are many such governments in the developing countries. Some are a good deal better than this description would suggest. The fate of the others can perhaps be left in the hands of their own people for the time being, although here too moral issues arise. For governments that want and are worthy of the assistance of professional planners, including economists, I would suggest the following principles. 1. The determination of an acceptable welfare function is one of the most important, if not the most important, aspects of the planning process. In this context 'acceptable' means that it satisfies the politicians, that in the long run it is acceptable to the people, and that it is something the planners can live with and work with. The professional planners, including

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the economists, should assist the politicians in deciding what ought to be done. Final decisions will and should be made by the politicians, but the planners should not hesitate to make and defend value judgements related to their own fields of special competence. Architects and engineers have views about urban design which cannot be purely 'scientific' but which are useful nonetheless; economists should have views about the relative importance for welfare of checking inflation or reducing unemployment, of reducing income inequalities or improving the balance of payments, even of raising levels of education or improving levels of nutrition. Planners, in other words, have a responsibility to bring their professional training and experience to bear in helping politicians to assign weights to objectives. 2. The final weighting of objectives and the final selection of projects for inclusion in the plan should emerge together at the end of the planning process. Politicians should not be asked to weight objectives before all the analysis has been done and the options and trades-off are clear. Generally speaking politicians can make their value judgements more effectively by choosing sets of projects for inclusion in the plan than by endeavouring to weight objectives in the abstract. A politician's answer to a question posed at the beginning of the planning operation of the general order, 'Should higher income or protection of the environment have higher priority?' will not mean very much. Nor can the politician attach meaningful weights to 'health' vs. 'education'. But at the end of the planning process, when all the data are in and all the studies complete, the politician can make a meaningful choice between a project costing one million esperitos for 'x' hospital beds with doctors, nurses and equipment attached, or another costing the same amount for 'y' school places with teachers, books, and laboratory equipment. A weighting of objectives is implicit in the choice, and the planner's task is to present the options in such a way that the implicit weighting of objectives makes sense. 3. All countries, socialist or 'market', utilize the market, regulated or unregulated, for some part of the resource allocation process, and direct government action for the rest. An important part of the planning process is to decide what to leave to the market and what to plan directly. It is here that the economist can make one of his major contributions to the planning process. Comprehensive planning is a gigantic operation in any country, and most LDC's are short of skilled personnel needed for the task. There is no sense in direct government action in allocating scarce resources where the market is doing a reasonably good job, or can be

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made to do so by simple legislation or regulation requiring little in the way of administrative skills. Nor is there any sense in leaving to the market the sort of discontinuous structural change and essential but unprofitable undertakings involved in the development process. It is not a matter of either or, but how much of each. And to repeat, this issue has nothing to do with 'socialism vs. capitalism'. Public enterprises can be allowed to make their decisions in accordance with market conditions, and private enterprises can be so hemmed in with regulations, or so much influenced by tax and subsidy schemes, that it is the government that makes the real decisions regarding resource allocation. 4. Growth, in the sense of more of what people want, is necessary for increased welfare (i.e., for development) in all developing countries. Growth targets must be included in the final welfare function. However, planning for growth need not mean planning for growth of gross national income. In most countries growth of national income is still one element in increased welfare; and including growth of national income in the welfare function will seldom do real harm. But planning should never be limited to growth of national income in the standard national accounting sense. In selecting other indicators of development for inclusion in the welfare function, most emphasis should be attached to those elements of the development process in each country which have the maximum feedback relations to each other and to other elements of development. 5. In most developing countries these elements are likely to be nutrition, health, and education, with increased employment as the major vehicle for attaining growth. A welfare function based on these elements, as well as catching the variables with maximum feedback effects, would also catch the major portion of the factors involved in social welfare. Given the overlap between regional disparities and maldistribution of income among social groups, adding reduction of regional gaps to the welfare function would improve it considerably in most countries. In the more prosperous LDC's, if regional gaps are not a good approximation to social gaps, it may be desirable to add some 'incomes policy' to the welfare function. But individual countries may have legitimate reasons for adding other elements, such as protection of the physical environment or assurance of a desirable 'style' of social development as explicit factors in the welfare function. 6. Infrastructure, including housing, can be planned in terms of derived demand after the priorities in terms of projects satisfying the welfare function directly have been determined.

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7. Finally, the restraints cannot be ignored. In most countries entrepreneurial, managerial, administrative, technical scientific, and skilled labour restraints are likely to be paramount. The 'two gaps' are still important, and the economist still has a useful job to do in estimating requirements in terms of savings, exports, or capital inflows. It is clear that such an approach to development planning has implications for the training of planner and especially for the training of economists who wish to be engaged in development planning. It also has implications for economic theory. But the economic development planner cannot wait for the economics profession to sort itself out, and in tackling his own problems, freed from the tenets of the 'new new welfare economics', he may well make a more significant contribution to economic theory than will the pure theorist who sticks to his ivory tower, ever more isolated from what is going on in the real world.

J. A. PONSIOEN

2

The city as development centre

Since Louis Wirth wrote his famous article 'Urbanism as a way of life' (1938), it has been generally acknowledged that for a relevant study of the city the quantitative approach is by far insufficient. The specificity of the city, and therefore the yardstick of the degree of urbanization of settlements, is found in a certain behavioural pattern of the inhabitants, a pattern somehow, but not directly, connected with the number of settlers on a limited space. A direct interrelation is recognized between this specific behaviour and particular institutions, functions and structures, among which a particular pattern of dominance is decisive. This structuralfunctional conception of urbanism may lead to the conclusion that at a certain stage of development the distinction urban-rural loses its significance when the entire nation is culturally urbanized. In such situations an empirical study of what type of behaviour is properly urban becomes difficult, as the comparative situation of non-urbanized settlements is no longer available. A similar difficulty occurs if one wishes to study the identity of urbanization as distinct from industrialization. There are no longer any cities unaffected by industrialization. Therefore, in order to rediscover the institutionalized functions and structures proper to the town, the historical approach, the study of pre-industrial cities and of the non-urbanized rural areas remains imperative. The study of urbanism has gained a new dimension in the development literature, where towns are indicated as 'poles of growth'. In Francois Perroux' (1964) theory, such poles are those existing industrial centres where the basic decisions are taken which explain a large part of the economic growth of the nation. Today the opinion - as mainly reflected in the development plans of the southern countries whose emphases shift from industrialization to rural development - seems to prevail that new centres, new towns will radiate development over the rural areas. Urban

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centres are then supposed to be instruments for regional development in support of national development. Moreover, these instruments are also supposed to work more or less automatically. This contribution is meant to help readers understand what one is doing to a region when promoting urban centres. It will challenge the belief that the creation of new towns as such is an instrument producing regional development automatically. The conclusion will be that the town is an indispensable instrument, indeed, but that additional provisions are required to insure that it has this desired effect. One basic assumption is implied in our argument, viz. that development means an increasing production and consumption of the necessary goods and services by the entire population and not by a privileged group only.

1. STRUCTURE, FUNCTIONS AND DYSFUNCTIONS OF CITIES: A HISTORICAL VIEW1

Cities have been covered with praise and blame - praise for their great cultural performances, for being the breeding place of innovations, of freedom and wealth; blame for the loneliness of individual inhabitants, for their polluted air, their noise and overcrowded houses, for their slums, their contrast between wealth and poverty, even for their immorality. Probably due to the lack of historical records and information, the preindustrial cities share most of the praise, the industrial cities most of the blame (Lewis Mumford, 1938). Apart from that, one has to concentrate on the pre-industrial town if one wants to find out what in the history of cultures the urban revolution has properly meant (Weber, 1958; Sjoberg, 1960; Gutkind, 1962). Industrialization has been a cultural revolution of a much later date. The most appropriate method to study this urban revolution would, of course, be to use historical records. However, history is written in cities; it pre-supposes that the urban revolution has already occurred. There are no historical records on the origin of old towns. The origin of all famous towns is mysterious, is hidden away in myths, is too wonderful. This is especially true of cities pictured as the 'mothers of civilization'. One recalls immediately the

1. It may be good to recall some English derivates of the Latin word town, civitas: city, citizen, civic(s), civil (servant), civilization, (un)civilized, as well as from the Greek polis: policy, politics, police, (im)polite.

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ancient city empires (the centres of the successive civilizations in Ancient Egypt, in Mesopotamia, the famous Greek towns, Rome), where the entire civilization was concentrated in one single town, which radiated from there into the unbounded universe until somewhere their armies clashed. One thinks of the European medieval towns (the Italian towns, the Hanseatic towns, the University towns) which were islands of civil freedom and economic activities in a poor, rural continent gripped by rigid, feudal structures (Pirenne, 1925). One remembers the royal court cities (Constantinople, Ravenna, Granada, Salamanca, Prague, Vienna, Toledo, Paris), most of them being later essentially administrative cities. What has made them so wonderful that only myths could reveal their importance? No other methods are available to answer the question of the origin of cities than comparing an ideal type of non-urban settlement with that of a fully developed city and then deducing what happened in terms of a fundamental cultural transition. Such was the method applied by Spencer, Tönnies, Dürkheim, van Tuenen and all those interested in formulating stages of cultural evolution. Some empirical observations on what happens at crossroads in Central Africa or Latin America today may, however, be helpful as starting points. At a crossroad in a merely rural environment, in which every active man alternatively did some agriculture, hunting and handicraft, weekly markets central to the local markets tend to develop. Merchants are settling there. Some shops even become permanent. Handicraft activities especially find a good market place there, so that handicraft becomes the main activity of less fortunate peasants, who give up agriculture and settle with the merchants as permanent artisans. When this market and village proves to be viable and its activities are multiplying, such a village would develop a new structure, that of guilds. Production would become organized locally (artisans of the same skill grouped together) and commerce would be regulated by conventions whereby the quality is improved through competition. The more this market grows, the more the local markets seek allignment with it; thus, the more central the crossroad village becomes. The more prosperous the place becomes, the more the marginal as well as the more active people (always the two categories which migrate first) from the environment will seek their fortune there. At a given point of growth the place becomes so large that all individuals taking part in the interconnected activities cannot know each other anymore directly, face to face. The inhabitants have to continue to work

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and to communicate as a social unit, yet they do not know who their partners are. This is a threshold situation, indeed. Now a series of new functions have to be invented and introduced, and some existing functions have to change fundamentally; otherwise the growth cannot continue. These functions together constitute the urban culture. If they do not originate, further growth of that community is excluded. In communication between people unknown to each other, one first needs coined money to replace individual, place-bound, simultaneous barter by transactions over space and time; second, one needs script to replace spoken language for communication over distance; third, one needs law to replace the chief's direct command over well-known individuals by regulations for unknown subjects. Without these basic functions a community of people who do not know each other cannot exist. With them the individual becomes a city man, a citizen, a civilized man. Each of these basic functions generates a great number of new ones. Coined money leads to hoarding, to saving, to banking, to credit, i.e., extending economic transactions over time. Next to the merchants in goods, a group of professional merchants in money grows up as distinct from the artisan producers. Script, the necessary means for communicating with the unknown partner and over distance, generates the possibility of storing knowledge and making this accessible to all who know how to decode the script. Education, in addition to family and community upbringing and to learning from individual experience, is now possible and becomes a necessity for participating in the city's life. With education, the teaching profession, the professionals at imparting knowledge, as well as the priest group, the professionals of the 'holy script' is born. Also law, the general rule for all which replaces the individual command to wellknown individuals, has important by-products: first of all administration and professionals who rule the community according to the law. Administration in turn develops the pattern of functional organization by defining, assigning and combining roles. Thus the profession of management grows up. Supervision over obedience to law must be professionalized as well as punishment for infringing of the law - thus the police. Law also requires controlled application to particular circumstances - hence the court and professional lawyers are required. A number of traditional functions also get involved in this process of professionalization. Traditional community self-defence is replaced by a standing military, mainly because the city equipped with script, administration, police and functional organization is so superior over its surround-

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ing world that it can subject and control its populations. Religion falls into the hands of the priestly group, becomes formalized, administered and organized as in a church. Traditional mutual assistance within and between families is replaced by social services - thus, schools with their teachers and health centres with their medical men. Alms are replaced by some kind of poor-law to regulate and control beggary. Recreation also becomes professionalized. In the ancient cities the market, the 'agora' or the 'forum', was not primarily the place where goods were bought and sold, but where rhetors, sculptors, stage players and singers offered their services to the public, where justice was done and the gods were venerated. In the stadium one finds professional sportsmen. It is evident that in the process of such transformations from communities based upon face-to-face relations to communities in which people communicate without knowing each other, not only a great number of cultural institutions grow up but also a new social structure originates. The core of this new structure is made up of the group which exercises the specific urban functions. Historians have always struggled with finding a good name for this group. Those who philosophize about society, the sociologists before sociology, identified this group with 'the' society, as opposed to the masses, probably because these professionals were the cultivated, the civilized group, the society proper, to which these sociologists themselves belonged.2 Later they called this group, or rather this group called themselves, the elite. The classical economists of the nineteenth century called them the nonproductive group since labour was their yardstick for measuring value. The activities of this group were not measured by money as labour was; members received an honorary pay (honorarium) 'at the occasion' of their services. Veblen called them the leisure class, which reminds us that in Greek 'school' means 'leisure'. Presently they are called middle class, or upper-middle class, a terminology which is only relevant if one indicates just who is above and who beneath them. In most cities, however, there are no classes above them. The terminology originated in the royal court cities, from the time that the top of the feudal structure moved into the towns. As none of these terms seems adequate for designating their urban origin and functions, we would prefer to call them the 'professional service class'. 2. Still today newspapers report about 'society' marriages and 'society' parties, meaning high society.

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The common structure of the town, if it was not a court city, was that of five classes (with apologies to Marx): three independent ones - the merchants of goods, the artisans and the professional service class, and two dependent ones - the soldiers and the servants. The farmers have disappeared from the city scene. The soil in towns is too precious to be used for farming. Only gardening remains, agriculture for pleasure and leisure. (This does not hold completely true for some new cities in presently developing countries. See further in this contribution.) Which among the three independent classes was the most powerful and prestigious one differed according to the situation. In the Egyptian towns it was the priestly group; in Sparta, the army officers; in Athens, the philosophers; in Rome, the lawyers and administrators; in the Italian towns of the Renaissance, the merchants, whereas in Japanese towns of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries the merchants were considered the most 'uncivilized' (the least loyal to the city) group. In the Hanseatic towns, though their league was primarily commercial, the artisans and their guilds were often the most powerful. Yet, everywhere, the cultural dominance, the imposition of the ought-to-be civilized behavioural pattern, is with the professional service class. Whether this class is paid by the merchants as in Venice and Florence or by the artisans as in Lübeck and the Flemish towns (Brugge, Gent, Brussels), the dominance remained with the service class in many aspects. They exerted a financial dominance, since the monetary experts and the bankers were among them. They exerted a legal dominance since the lawyers, the court magistrates, the administrators and the police officers were among them. They had a service dominance since the medical men, the teachers, the welfare organizers were with them. Most of all they exerted a cultural dominance since the academicians, the leading artists, the church leaders were with them. The group as a whole imposed its norms of decent behaviour on the entire community. They may or may not have had control over the division of income among the various social groups - a power which only since the industrial revolution has been considered the most crucial one but which was not apparently so important in pre-industrial ages. Also, while they did not directly command the arms and the distribution of income and did not have the physical strength, they controlled those very instruments, insofar as they developed the normative system for their uses. Still nowadays, each system - the educational, the health, the legal, the police, the military - has its own 'classical' sets of norms, its normative self-image developed by its cultivated elite. In pre-industrial towns the

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economic system was not excepted from this rule; one remembers Aristotle's rejection of chrematitzein (the search for wealth or profits) and praise for the oikonomeia (the care for the home, i.e., the family or the city). One remembers also how the medieval Christians and Muslims rejected making interest from money lending and invested much technical inventiveness, money and labour in the construction and decoration of mosques, cathedrals, guild and municipal houses for the glory of their cities. The cultural dominance of the professional service class did not alienate the two other independent classes, the merchants and the 'productive" class, the artisans. Both of them were eager to accommodate at least their non-professional behaviour to the patterns set by the service professionals in order to show themselves civilized, cultivated. Tarde's basic social law explaining society through the drive to imitate may well reflect this attitude. There may have been some reluctance to follow the normative rule of the elite in the professional behaviour (not to make interest, not to seek profit, to restrict the use of violence by truces, to donate accumulated capital to the services of the poor in orphanages, hospitals, Holy Ghost houses, schools), but this seems not to have been different from the frustrations every moral rule used to entail. The situation of the servants and soldiers, however, just as that of the peoples in the rural surroundings, was profoundly different. They were all non-civilized, illiterates, culturally non-urban. Though they used money, they did not accumulate; they had no access to the courts except to be punished; they had no influence in the making of the law to which they were subjected; they continued to speak their rural dialect, to rely upon mutual help rather than on the professional services. Their way of life, their mode of working was alien to the cultural pattern of the 'civilized class'. They were not citizens proper. They were at the use and the rule of the three other classes. Historical records tell us very little about them since history was written by members of the professional service class and thus from their point of view. Sometimes, as is the case for the medieval cities, painters (like Breughel and Bosch) are much better sources for learning how these people lived than written records. It is therefore difficult to describe their social situation, still more so if we want to do so in our own terminology. Were they exploited and used to it, alienated from their cultural identity? Or were they happy refugees from the feudal oppression and the rural poverty, provided with at least an opportunity to live their own lives? The same difficulty persists in judging the situation of the rural environ-

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ment vis-ä-vis the urban dominance. One should first have to know how deeply this dominance penetrated through soil property (especially after the landlords moved into the cities), through imposing market prices or taxation and, secondly, by which historical standards one could judge such possible powers as use or misuse. Always, however, the peasant was the standard type of the non-cultivated man, an outcast. Only when a romantic 'back to nature' invaded the professional service class, its members could appreciate and play pastoral romances, but this never led to appreciating the rural folk and to communicating with them. The servants and soldiers in the cities, at any rate, had lost the social relationships and the social securities proper to the rural communities. In town they were bound by impersonal structures. Even though the members of the other classes may have developed face-to-face groups, the life of such groups was conditioned by impersonal structures. The serfs however could not participate in the typical urban functions; they were alien to the polite, i.e., urban life; they even were not able to organize their own interests (as happened after industrialization, when the workers became properly urbanized). Thus they lost much and gained little when moving into the towns. There the roots may be found of the many reproaches later levelled at the towns, when they are judged to induce alienation, immorality, criminality, pathological nervosity, etc. Yet, the servants and soldiers to a certain extent were the lucky persons in their category, a poor class as a whole. They were employed and earned a living. The servants were always in contact with decent people. The soldiers were part of the ultimate power structure. The poor class as a whole was partly a reservoir of servants for the independent classes, partly a burden to their charitable duties. It was the proletariat in the Roman sense of the word, good only for conserving the race or the tribe. As regards the scarcely populated rural areas, from the city's point of view these were partly hinterland and partly no man's land. The city needed them as hinterland, as suppliers of food, of raw materials for their artisanal industries (cotton, wool, fibers, timber) and often also of servants. To the city masters it was irrelevant whether these goods or servants were delivered by feudal landlords or by the peasants themselves. This may have mattered to the merchants, the natural liaisons between the urban and rural areas. Although this hinterland position usually led to economic exploitation (inequality in the exchange value), it did not necessarily lead to political dominance and alienation (i.e., loss of cultural identity).

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The situation was different, however, in regions where the rural areas were considered the no man's land between cities which recognized each other. The countryside has always been the refuge for criminals against the urban laws (just as the cities were - and are - the refuge for criminals against the [feudal], rural law). When commerce was an intercity affair and the commercial transports were waylaid by those 'criminals', the cities were forced to take control over the interior as over the basis of potential aggressors against their lines of communication. In their administration and their police, cities possessed the means for such control. Once the interior was brought under control, the tendency developed to 'civilize' (i.e., urbanize) those peasants or pagans (two words having etymologically the same meaning!), to impose the urban way of thinking, judging, feeling, behaving, upon them. Two motives were behind this tendency. First was the feeling of superiority of the urban (i.e., the professional service class) culture combined with a missionary fervour to donate to the lower groups elements of their own civilization - most of all religion - without improving these lower groups economically. Second was the wish to make the rural population serviceable to the ruling groups, a condition which requires a common set of ideas. Whereas it is 'in nature' that the lower species are at the service of the higher species, communication between them cannot occur but on basic equality (Aristotle). In that way dominance and alienation may join the tendency toward economic exploitation. In Europe since the Middle Ages a particular series of cultural revolutions have occurred which have marked all further history and functional developments of towns - the national, the humanistic, the French and the industrial revolutions. In the ancient empire structure one city dominated. Peoples in the reach of its army and ruling capacity were subjected to its authority, to its religion and exploitation. Cities other than their own sub-settlements were in principle competitors and, if conquered, dismantled and even destroyed. All people out of its reach were barbarians, i.e., destitute of human culture. Medieval Europe was marked by the persistence of the empire concept (the political unity of humanity under the emperor and the pope), as well as by the growth of several independent towns, which after sometime concluded commercial leagues among themselves. In the fourteenth century, however, a new phenomenon occurred: within the empire nation states were built up by the top feudal lords, the kings. A long story of struggle between the independent cities and the feudal lords ended in a political victory for the king and a

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cultural victory for the cities. The feudal lords moved to the cities. The towns were integrated into the national state in a dominating position; they became state and provincial 'capitals'. A 'hierarchy of towns' originated as they became concentration points of the national administrative, cultural, economic and social functions. At the same time an ideological revolution took place; urban education moved away from exclusive teaching of tradition and introduced exercises in empirical studies of nature (later called research), alongside a shift from a theological interpretation of nature to a scientific one. A split occurred between the hierarchy of the church taking the traditional line on the one hand and the professional service class, adopting a humanistic, mundane, scientific outlook on the other. The so-called French revolution ended the feudal structure of the nation and the hegemony of the church ideology in cities definitely. It signed the victory of the urban culture and the urban structures as the ones for the entire nation state. This type of town, the model for the nation state, is now a universal phenomenon. In the eighteenth century a new revolution, the industrial revolution, occurred within the urban environment. True, rationalization and commercialization of production was first applied in agriculture. It was the application of the normal urban procedures of production to agriculture. But this did not yet convert the rural population to the urban functions, culture and structures. Industrialization was a new mode of production in the towns. Based upon the natural sciences, anorganic energy and artificial producers (machines) were introduced. This has affected the urban way of life, and through it the whole nation, with a quantitative and qualitative change in the urban functions themselves. Through the new forms of communication, possible over ever-greater distances, a quantitative expansion of the towns became a possibility and a fact. The town became, rather than an organized and conscious social unit, a mass, a mere conglomeration, a social environment to the individuals, offering them opportunities for their personal lives. Organizing such increasing amount of individual families, disinterested in each other, necessitated a great number of economic, social services and administrative regulations, so that the professional service class increased more than proportionally. Thus, the existing urban functions, once higher-class privileges, fell to the hands of the masses. Profound structural changes were entailed with these functional changes. Industry had been the outgrowth of the commercialized artisans. In by

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far the most cases (the Flemish towns may have been an exception; see the guild houses in Brussels, Gent and Brugge) the artisans had been second-ranked citizens. As industrialists, i.e., as mass producers, and as the source of wealth to the cities as well as the employers of the poor, they became the most powerful, the most important citizens, though they hastened to become as educated as the professional service class, which retained the standards of all decent culture. Equally important for future development, the 'servants' became integrated into the industrial production process as 'workers' and thus changed the poor class into a labour class by borrowing from the middle class the procedures of organization. So they gradually emancipated themselves, i.e., they gained participation in the urban function proper. They also became 'civilized'. This is roughly the type of town that exists today universally, though in some countries the structural change process may be accomplished while in others it is still underway.

2.

THE CONTROL PATTERNS IN THE CITIES OF THE INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD

A second approach to the study of the town as a development centre can be taken over from the sociology of the modern industrialized towns. This we shall do by discussing a number of generalizations made by mainly American sociologists. 2.1 Continuous relevance of the study of pre-industrial and pre-national cities Most research of functional sociology on towns is done in the U.S.A. It is not surprising that these authors restrict themselves to industrialized towns, the real source of their actual social problems. It is more surprising that some deny the relevance of the study of pre-industrial town or even its existence. Lampard (1950), for example, identifies the pre-industrial society with rural life and states that 'the small urban nuclei that often develop in such a society are essentially service centres of an agrarian way of life'. This is not historically false, as shown by our survey, but it also eliminates a part of mankind's experience with city life which remains a good tool for understanding the structure of towns in the industrial world, as we shall see, as well as the specific urban functions in countries developing today.

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One of the main variables explaining the city's functions and dysfunctions remains to many American authors the quantitative extension of the settlements. Kuznets (1949), for example, holds that the total number of city dwellers in previous times were so few compared to the rural population that we can neglect their existence. This is a wrong viewpoint again. It is, moreover, not the relative quantity that counts but the functions, the development impact, the innovative force, the civilizing effect which to neglect means neglecting the prime movers in the progress of civilization. Moreover, inasfar as numbers are important, it is not the quantity of city dwellers but the quantity of the members of the professional service class, that of the artisans or (later) the industrialists, of the merchants, as well as their mutual relationships, that matter.3 The number of servants and soldiers, or of the poor class where these came from, had very little impact on history, nor did the rural population, until they organized themselves for emancipation from the dominance of ruling groups. Such points are important since the numerical proportion between professionals, industrialists and merchants, on the one hand, and 'the rest' of the urban population on the other (as well as their interrelationship) are very different today in the rich and the poor countries. In the urban-rural relationship (in which the urban is actually represented by the urban ruling classes), the authors seem always to suppose that the cities perform nationwide functions. This has been true, indeed, since the nation exists, but, historically speaking, this is only a sevencenturies-old phenomenon. There have existed large, important, culturegeneration cities long before. Since many a developing country is now in its nation-building stage and any number of rural areas are still out of the reach of urban control, the analysis of the pre-national times, in which the rural areas were often mere hinterlands and no man's land, remains very helpful. 2.2 Relevance of the noti-economic sectors It is also typical to American studies on industrialized towns that they are focussed on the behaviour of industrialists and business people, 3. For example, Kano in Northern Nigeria was around 1960 a conglomeration of over 50,000 people. Yet, in all appearances, it was a village which was mainly due to the absence of professional servants.

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tacitly identifying them with the city dwellers in general. This may be partly due to Perroux' theory, since this theory deals with the decisionmaking on the macro-economic level, in which urban big business plays a decisive role, indeed. This is, however, an assertion completely different from the thesis that the leaders of big business play a decisive role in shaping the urban way of life. This supposition of the American sociologists is understandable, as in their country the professional service class and interest organizations like trade-unions are also strongly commercialized. But this phenomenon is far from being universal. In Europe, for example, the organization of education and research, of social policies, of the health services, of the media of mass communication and certainly of public administration are far more (not completely!) independent than in the U.S.A. from business interests or decisions and are ruled by their own professional ethics. In the socialist societies the economic decision makers are themselves subjected to political and administrative rulers, so that there an industrialists' hegemony does not exist at all. We dare to say that in no situation was or is the economic sector so dominant that it describes fully the role and place of the cities, nor explains them completely, as we shall see further. The more interesting it is to read the historical development of the American city itself. This actually deals with the history of the economic decision makers, but it shows a continuous shift of power to other groups (Lasuen, 1968). First, this power was with the owners, the investors, then with the managers, meaning with them the technicians and technocrats (Burnham's Managerial revolution, 1941). Today the power is with the managers proper, the specialists in designing, planning, marketing and financing of corporate business, in which all kinds of technical production processes can be combined. This implies a move from the industrialists, with their basically artisanal and local background, to the professional economic service suppliers in the sphere of worldwide economic life.

2.3 The theory of a hierarchy of cities Yet this purely economic analysis as applied in urban studies has made us aware of a new phenomenon. Just as the appearance of the nation state has induced an administrative hierarchy of towns, the worldwide expansion of business, supported by the international relations of some states, has produced a worldwide hierarchy of towns, i.e., the concentration of the decisions over the world's economy within a few central towns, to

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wftich other towns become dependent in their decisions for the lower national or regional levels. This view on a 'hierarchy of towns', however, has to be narrowed down as well as to be enlarged at the same time. To narrow it, the towns do not, of course, form a hierarchy, but some small power centres located in them. These may even, and rather often do, constitute rather isolated communities within the towns (like diplomatic areas) as indicated by their symbolic presentations: Wall Street, Fleet Street, Montmartre, Harvard, Pentagon, Quai d'Orsay, Kremlin, Vatican. To broaden our thesis, such a hierarchy of decision-making centres does not exist in the economic or business field only but as much in the political, scientific, educational, medical and news distribution systems. A first indicator of a non-economic hierarchy may be the location of the secretariates of the United Nations, specialized agencies and their worldregional commissions, from which political decisions and information are channelled through the national capitals into the nations. This latter indicator may, however, greatly deceive. As much as the economic analysis is insufficient, an analytical tool that leaves out the decisions taken by private business in the economic field is equally insufficient. To discover the latter, the relations between stock exchange centres and between central banks would be better indicators. And so it is true for other fields such as education, science, health, politics, news gathering and disseminating. The location of an administrative secretariate does not necessarily coincide with the centres where the decisions, innovating the systems on world, regional, national and sub-national levels, are made by specific groups. The study of urbanism comes only in where location and structure of the settlement not only permits such decision-making groups for different sectors to settle but, much more, permits and facilitates the communication among them and so their influence on each other. If and where this communication occurs officially or unofficially, one may speak of a hierarchy of towns as a hierarchy of decision-making centres (Dunham, 1969), not forgetting that even these decision-making groups together may constitute a rather small community within a town. 2.4 The problem of order in the modern mass conglomerations A further insight into urban characteristics can be obtained through discussing William L. Kolbs' (1954) article 'The social structure and functions of the cities'. Kolb is rooted in the tradition of the Chicago

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school (Robert E. Park), whose fundamental problems were the disorders caused in this city by gangsterdom, hence their scientific interest in the causes of the disorder in a mass conglomeration. Their sociological approach derived from Spencer's theory which stated that the original biological struggle for sheer survival with the advancement of cities is replaced by economic competition. Economic competition not only implies that a number of individuals performing the same role compete for the favour of the buyers, but it also stimulates an even further division of economic roles (to gain an original role) and hence their complementarity which constitutes the economic organizational pattern of the town. Complementarity in production, however, raises the problem of the division of the results of the complementary efforts. Competition in production is even a function of the competition to obtain a (higher) income. However, since the competition for income may bring along a possible return to violence (gangsters also fight for an income), it threatens the organizational pattern of the town. Thus to keep competition within the acceptable boundaries, e.g., those of a fight with economic means only, more is required than the principle of competition; a generally accepted moral order is an indispensable complementary element to it, according to Kolb. Moreover, for competition to come about requires more than an urban environment. The Weberian example of the nondevelopment of nineteenth-century China, despite extensive urban life, is cited. To Kolb, the continuous economic development of the American urban towns has been due to and ruled by, in addition to the urban factor of competition, the general acceptance of the 'universal achievement principle' (Parsons) as a normative rule, i.e., income is obtained as a reward for achievement, for an individual contribution to general welfare, whereas in measuring achievement equal standards are applied by all and to all. As a non-American, one is somewhat surprised when reading such an expose. First, here a problem that elsewhere is treated as a problem of the economic order in the nation is treated as an urban problem. Second, economic development has occurred not less in the socialist countries which do apply the universalistic achievement pattern, indeed, but whose basic organizational principle is not competition but planning. Urban planning, rapidly developing in the U.S.A., shows that there also the urban infrastructure has little to do with competition yet is nowadays decisive for urban life. Thirdly, it seems evident from the troubles and race conflicts during the last decade in American cities that the ability to

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achieve, and thus to contribute to what the dominant classes feel that general welfare is, is the result of a previous division of income, regulated by class privileges (in access to jobs, to education, to the dominant classes) rather than by standards equally applied to all. Fourthly, competition is said to be the organizational principle of urban life. This is true for business and the free professions, indeed, but not for the majority of the town people working in bureaucratic, professional or industrial organizations. People may compete for getting the jobs, but the jobs themselves are prescribed and seldom leave space for competition. Thus the majority of people's productive life is not regulated by competition but by organizational planning, whereas the moral order of the organizations is to obey orders, i.e., to accept the predetermined role and to implement this to the best of one's abilities. Kolb, and many authors with him, makes the mistake of identifying the town with its dominating group, assuming that the economic sector is the dominant one and that business managers dominate this sector. Even limiting oneself to this too-narrow analysis, it seems questionable whether the business world creates, maintains or imposes the normative rules which keep competition within acceptable limits. Law undoubtedly plays an important role, too, as do the moral convictions of the legislature, the courts and the lawyers. Education, too, plays a role and thus the moral convictions of the educators. Also churches and their ministers are instrumental in upholding moral standards for economic life. There are protests and contestations against the moral practices of business life, against their ideas about dividing incomes, of ever-increasing production, of admission and promotion procedures in jobs distribution, of polluting environment. Most of these protests are coming originally from the professional service class, which in turn has a great impact on law and education. The least one must recognize is that the professional service class always, also in the U.S.A. of today, competes with the business class in setting the normative rules for the leading figures of the economic sector. Kolb's limitation, in explaining urban life, to the relations between economic decision makers is understandable to a certain degree. With industrialization, the economic aspect of life, mainly inasfar as monetary incomes are concerned, became the most crucial and dominating issue in society. This has not always been the case. Of course, a hierarchy of social positions existed in pre-industrial societies, too, and a certain degree of wealth (property and income) was always attached to them. But the degree itself was determined by the prestige of the position, this again

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being determined by the degree of culture the position holders enjoyed. Such differentiation of wealth was universally accepted, as long as the masses had a mere subsistence income. Nobody thought about a need for justification, or even about a division of income as a function of power as a social position. Nowadays these power positions are so much valued that they are often identified with 'the structure' of the society. 2.5 The rule of law and of the moral code of the professional service class Yet, the importance of Kolb's contribution can hardly be overestimated because it draws attention to a factor which used to be overlooked but is of decisive importance, viz. the impact of the moral system on the social order of the towns. It remains, however, highly questionable whether the principle of the 'universalistic achievement pattern', which is a purely formal one (without content), has been in the U.S.A., let alone elsewhere, the decisive moral rule in the past and is today the only one conducive to urban development, especially the most appropriated model for the towns in developing countries. One recalls almost spontaneously the statement of Max Weber, indicating the Calvinist religion as the moral parameter for industrialization and economic development in the U.K. This assertion did not limit itself to a purely formal rule; it indicated a set of rules for practical behaviour, such as assiduous working, restriction in consumption, obedience to authorities and law, brotherhood and pity for the weaker people - all were morally required 'achievements'. Another similar moral rule regulating modernizing behaviour was found by students of the Japanese development indicating the basic attitude of loyalty to the intentions of the Emperor or the government as the inspiring and regulating force. Also, we should not forget that each particular functional system used to have its own basic regulating norm such as education finds it in its principle of academic freedom in the search for truth, law in its principle of maintenance of the civic order and inviolability of human existence, the medical system in the service to life itself, administration in its impartiality. Infraction of such principles would 'corrupt' the systems. What corrupts economic life is exploitation, when more is taken in transactions than is given. The question as to what kind of organization of the system prevents its corruption is of secondary importance. The organizational principle should probably be as different for each system as their basic norms are so. What may be a good principle for economic

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life (e.g., competition or planning) may be a bad one for education, for health care, for administration or law, if the continued growth of each system is desired. Actually Kolb was searching the overall principle for the urban organization as such preventing its corruption. This is and cannot be but law maintaining and detailing the basic moral norm of solidarity among citizens. Yet, also law can be corrupted, can become a means of exploitation, especially as in the urban culture the morally permitted use of violence has been restricted to the executors of the law. Two other basic moral and organizational norms can be derived from this: The makers and administrators of law should never be commercialized themselves, neither should they be dependent on any other group than intellectually on the professional service class; at the same time they should be at the equal service to all classes hence, universal in outlook, particular in approach. This latter statement is no longer an empirical finding. It states a functional requirement for the urban system as such to work. It maintains that the law makers and administrators should remain part and parcel of the professional service class, since their members produce, develop and maintain the norms proper to the various sub-systems. But they should remain independent from the business world and from the organized workers in defining the extent and the contents of what is to be regulated by law, for business, for working conditions, for division of income and protection of the workers, for preventing the town from becoming a jungle and for promoting a community of life between people who do not know each other.

3.

THE FUNCTIONS OF TOWNS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The developing countries are urbanizing at a rate heretofore unknown in world history. So runs the common statement. There is no difficulty in proving it with figures indicating the growing numbers of inhabitants of conglomerations surpassing 100,000. On the other hand sociologists, mainly African but also Latin American and Asian, give warnings not to exaggerate the Western urban-rural dichotomy as, they say, with us the rural way of life penetrates deeply into our cities. The latter is a very realistic statement, and it implicitly contradicts the identification of the quantitative and the cultural conceptions of the town. What matters are

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the urban functions in the towns themselves and their possible extension to the countryside; how deeply do they penetrate and shape life? In studying this cultural impact the word 'function', used so far in this contribution, becomes particularly relevant. Literacy itself is not what is important but the use of literacy in communication. When children have been trained in reading and writing, but find nothing to read in their villages, literacy is not functional. What matters is not the establishment of an administration but the effective rule of life by law. Structurally, development itself means the introduction of those institutions into national life which do perform what initially were urban functions: script and education; money, saving and credit; law, administration and police; organized defence, religion, social services and cultural services, and professional sports. These new institutions also encourage the development of commerce and crafts for ever wider markets. The local concentrations of such services constitute 'growth poles'. This implies of course that in such poles the professional service class, the professional artisans (industrialists) and merchants also concentrate. It is today a recognized policy to develop the nation through the promotion of such growth poles. Historically the expansion of a community over the frontiers of its face-to-face relationships produced the urban functions as requisites for further growth. Nowadays the outcomes of these historical developments are used as policy instruments to develop a nation. The institutions for urban functions are consciously introduced to promote overall development. In developing countries one finds new modern, mainly administrative, centres established, which soon lead to the development of towns. Brasilia is the clearest example of this policy. Initially they show a remarkable symbiosis between urban life of the middle class and rural life of the folk. Addis Ababa is a perfect example of this still, 80 years after its foundation. However, the most common picture in the developing countries is that of one, or very few, large and fast growing towns on the one hand and on the other, beginning about 50 miles from them, endless thinly populated lands. Life on these lands is slow, poor and dull, certainly for the city man, though the continuous migration from those rural areas to the city indicates that it is not better for the inhabitants themselves. The heart of the cities is completely modern in its construction (roads, houses, utility buildings) and in its facilities (shops, cinemas, garages, banks, hotels, hospitals, high schools). These city centres are developed, not developing. Here the professional service class, the merchants and a few, if any,

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industrialists live and work. Industries are usually located in a separated area, but the most important industries of the developing countries, the extractive ones and the plantations, are not located in towns; moreover they are often owned and managed by foreigners. What strikes the observer in the physical appearance of the town are the slums, the shanty towns, bidonvilles or favellas. They show the material incapacity of the municipal authorities to provide the basic facilities (roads, houses, water and energy supply, sewer service) to the fast growing population (the population bomb is already exploding here), on the one hand, and the poverty of these peoples on the other. This poverty should not be exaggerated. One finds in these slums regular workers, casual workers, as well as regularly unemployed. These cannot be treated as one undifferentiated group (Bulsara, 1970). On the contrary there exists a strong stratification among and within slums. The regular workers may have a refrigerator, a television set, a bicycle but not a house of minimum decency. The regularly unemployed tend to apathy,4 to a social and cultural nihilism to non- or marginal participation in the city's life, whereas the regular workers may be very active in politics (Ray, 1969), in Latin America seemingly more than on other continents. From this very short and much too generalized picture, one may raise the question whether such towns are indeed growth poles, centres of development, for their own inhabitants as well as for the countryside? The opposite is argued too: The towns in the developing countries are said to be centres of exploitation - exploitation of the workers and slum dwellers by the merchants, the professional service class and the foreign business managers (the new edition of the absentee landlord), exploitation of the rural surroundings and the far-away lands by the cities as wholes. If one would like to have visualized the differences in the income division, one has only to translate the figures of the salaries of the civil servants into so and so many times the per capita income of the country concerned. The salaries, however, are not all the upper middle class receives. The best and most expensive facilities created with tax money (much indirect taxation is applied) by the governments for the nation are located in or near the middle-class centres, so that this group actually profits most from such facilities (university colleges, secondary schools, hospitals, sport stadiums, cultural performance, roads, sewer service, water and electricity supply, etc.) at a rate far below their real costs. As to the exploitative 4. See, for the description of their life, Carolina Maria de Jesus (1962) and Lewis (1961).

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relation to the countryside, one points at the money lenders and traders as institutionalized exploitation (Stavenhagen, 1964), to the price regulations for agricultural products to keep the urban wages low, and at the exodus of their best trained and educated people to the cities so that investments made in them in the rural areas turns into profits for the towns. Yet, no development is possible without urban functions; rather it is identical with introducing the urban functions, and these functions need their own professionals. Whether these professionals are exploiters needs to be discussed on two levels, that of their subjective intentions and of the objective structure. As to their intentions, they know very well that they are the happy few. In general, however, one must recognize that they enjoy being happy as much as they hate being few. They would like their compatriots to enjoy similar facilities to those they have and work for. As to the structure, it should first be made clear that their positions, which are power positions indeed, cannot be judged only from the economic viewpoint, which has so dominated Western thinking since industrialization. The towns in the developing countries are much more like the European towns between the national revolution and the industrial revolution. The professional service class is the nation builder - through its lawyers, its administrators, its educators, its planners, its bankers. They are actually busy in constructing functional systems which are autochthonous and have growth capacities, i.e., precisely what national development is. They are far from ready, and thus great parts of the population in the towns and in the countryside are not yet integrated as clients into the systems. Despite beautiful national plans, there are great parts of no man's land, just as in the European Middle Ages, parts where the administrative organization does not and can not yet reach the target population because of the lack of material and personnel resources. Equally, there are great gaps in serving the urban population which is growing too rapidly. It is true they serve their own class first. It is also true that their incomes are high compared to those of the masses, urban and rural ones, though not compared to those of their colleagues in developed countries. Partly due to the colonial past of most of these countries, which has set up the present income division over the roles, partly due to the potential international exchange of these professionals (of which the brain drain is an indicator), this relatively high level of income is bound to persist. Yet another fact should be taken into account for the sake of realism. The members of the professional service class need the urban air to breathe.

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With their education and culture, they cannot stand to live for long in the dull rural areas. It is curious to hear Western service professionals reproaching their colleagues in the poor countries because the latter are not willing to serve in the rural areas and continue to stay in the towns since they themselves live constantly in the urban atmosphere, enjoying their homes with gardens outside the urban conglomeration with at least one car in the garage. However, though one would judge all these facts in the poor countries negatively, perhaps coining them exploitation, it is only realistic to accept them as the basis of policies. The problem is how to make the bearers of the urban functions serve the development of the nation. From our previous discussions it is clear that this is partly a structural, partly a legal and, in the last instance, partly a moral problem. In the situation in which we find, on the one hand, a phenomenon of over-urbanization in the quantitative sense in one or a few centres and, on the other, an 'interior' which is not legally no man's land or hinterland but, in fact, constitutes - except for the expectations of the rural population - areas untouched by 'civilization' (i.e., by the urban functions) and out of the reach of effective administration - in this situation the politicians for moral, political or nationalistic reasons want to develop the entire nation, or even claim to give priority to the rural areas, as is verbally indicated in so many developments plans today. It is then imperative that new development centres will be established in the rural areas. In the hypothetical situation of a backward rural region which a government has decided should be developed, one shall have to introduce there a number of services, say a secondary school, a teacher training college, a central hospital, an agricultural centre for experiments and for extension work combined with the training of extension officers, agrobusiness for agricultural instruments as well as for processing the products, a central market, a central police station, justice administration, and others according to specific requirements. The essential point now is that, on the one side, all such necessary services should be introduced together, and on the other, such services should not - probably contrary to the popular pressures - be dispersed over a number of villages. They all must be located in one and the same place, well selected as to its accessibility for the whole region as well as to its connection with already existing towns. The advantages of such concentration are many. First of all these

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services need each other in order to develop themselves. They are all part of the same type of culture, the so-called modern, better, urban one. Second, the availability of all such services is necessary for keeping the members of the professional service class in the area, so that together they create the cultural atmosphere in which each one can survive. Third, such a centre has a good chance of developing growth tendencies in itself. It will attract or generate shopkeepers, artisans, cinemas, sports centres. Fourth, if such centres take off, small-scale industries other than agro-industries will tend to develop. Fifth and not the least, it will absorb part of the rural migration which otherwise will go to the few big towns. Also in such regional centres an oversupply of labour will soon manifest itself and there will soon be overt unemployment. But there is still space available to live, and one finds that slum dwellers in a new centre, who often are there before the centre is half-way to being established, do some subsistence gardening. In the beginning such centres will exert a mainly switchboard function; it will transfer the policies formulated at the capital to the region and translate them in a way appropriated to it. It has to be fed from outside in all aspects, and therefore good communication with the capital is essential from the beginning. Once the new centre takes off, it can feed back its experiences and its newly gained wealth to the capital. It is meant to be a service centre to the region. It is not supposed to develop for its own sake (unless it is created just to discharge another town which is too large). It is rather supposed to radiate development. This may even be added to the list of the advantages of the new centres. Though we know little about the optimum size of a town (Duncan, 1951), it is generally held that the radiation effect, say, six towns of 500,000 is bigger than that of one town of three million. The crucial question is, however, whether it is true that new centres do radiate development functions; are not these functions mere assumptions denied by the facts? Will not the centre be a new form of exploitation, where the new middle class serve mainly each other and use the other inhabitants as cheap labour, destroying their traditional securities without providing them at the same time with new legal securities; will not they buy the surrounding lands and enslave the former farmers as tenants, buy the new products from the lands not yet owned by them at prices below the real production costs without giving them in return the fruits of the urban functions (education, health care, technical skills, social services, legal securities), or giving them in return less of these facilities than they

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have to pay for the maintenance of people as expensive as the professional service class members, the merchants and industrialists? Will not the new centre become the canal through which the little wealth of the region is drained toward the capital? The answer to such questions is usually not supported by the facts but by the student's ideological viewpoint through which he selects the facts for the sake of argument. The reality is that such a centre may develop into a service centre of the region as well as into an exploitive centre, or both at the same time, and that it is a matter of policy to stimulate its possible function of development radiation and restrain its equally possible dysfunction of exploitation. In any case we have to deal with the fact that an underdeveloped region cannot come to self-sustained development without a town equipped with the normal urban functions. The policy to be developed thus cannot be to cut the nationally normal incomes of the middle class people in the new centres, otherwise they will not settle in such towns. A premium would even be more helpful. It should also be normal that the region as a whole bears the costs of 'its' town, directly or indirectly, including paying off the initial investments by the central government when the fruits of them appear. This is not exploitation. The real danger is that the middle class members may serve each other rather than the urban and rural common man. Institutional guarantees are to be created which force this class to serve the others. As such we could suggest that on the boards of each regional institution within the town, perhaps via trade-unions and co-operatives, representatives of these common men are appointed. Such representation always has to reflect the real structures so that in some countries it may be organized through political parties in others through traditional chiefs. It may also be hopeful for the directors of the various established institutions to form together a regional development planning board, so that their responsibilities for the entire region is institutionalized. Such planning boards may have a consultative body in which the interior is as much represented as the town (Ponsioen, 1968). In our previous discussion we found that one of the crucial problems generated by the impersonal relationships of the town is its civic order and that also the principle of competition cannot provide it without a generally accepted moral principle. This principle can only be maintained by law. Therefore precisely at the beginning of a planned urban settlement, meant to reform the civic order of the region, an independent and effective service of justice administration is a basic requirement for preventing

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the town from becoming exploitative. Law should also generate such institutions as we suggested, so that guarantees are created for a morally sound regional development. Urban development historically has been a rather spontaneous phenomenon. It was a phase in the same evolution which also generated politics and policies. We are at a point in that evolution where policy can master urbanization, precisely in including new urban settlements for national development. At this point, also, the role of morals and law fulfil a new function, no longer that of correcting trends only, but that of producing new social institutions which can guarantee the service character of the professional servants to their client population. New urban centres are but one of these institutions; others must complement it to turn it into a pole of growth for all people of the region.

REFERENCES

Bulsara, J. F. (1970) Patterns of social life in metropolitan areas. Bombay. Carolina Maria de Jesus, L. (1962) Quarto di despajo (Child of the dark). New York. Duncan, O. D. (1951) Optimum size of cities. In K. Habt & A. J. Reiss (Eds.) Reader in urban sociology. Glencoe. Dunham, D. M. (1969) Approach to the understanding of settlement patterns. The Hague, Working paper for Iss. Gutkind, Ε. Α. (1962) The twilight of cities. Glencoe. Kolbs, W. L. (1954) The social structure and functions of the cities, Economic development and cultural change. Kuznets, S. (1949) National income and industrial structure, Econometria, 17. (Cited in Lampard, 1955). Lampard, Ε. E. (1955) History of the cities in advanced areas, Economic development and cultural change, Vol. 3. Lasuen, J. R. (1968) On growth poles. Paper presented at the 28th Conference of the Southern Economic Association, Washington, D.C. Lewis, O. (1961) The children of Sanchez. London. Mumford, L. (1938) The insensate industrial town, The culture of cities. Perroux, F. (1964) L'Economie duXXsiecle. P.U.F. Pirenne, H. (1925) Medieval cities: Their origins and the revival of trade. Garden City. Ponsioen, J. A. (1968) National development: A sociological contribution. The Hague Mouton. Ray, F. F. (1969) The politics of the barrios in Venezuela. Berkeley and Los Angeles. Sjoberg, G. (1960) The pre-industrial city, past and present. Glencoe. Stavenhagen, R. (1964) Changing functions of the rural community in underdeveloped countries, Sociologia Ruralis, 4. Weber, M. (1958) The city. Glencoe. Wirth, L. (1938) Urbanism as a way of life, American Journal of Sociology.

ZYGMUNT PI0RO

3

A sociological concept of polarized development

INTRODUCTION

Social inequalities, closely related to the economic inequalities, are one of the chief problems dealt with by sociology, yet they have seldom been considered in terms of space. Sociologists have perceived and analyzed differences in development between countries and regions, between town and countryside, but generally they have paid little attention to the factor of space, to the conditions of social development inherent in the 'spatial economy', in the physical substratum of social life as seen by Emile Dürkheim. In the attempt to find the causes of social inequalities, to explain the mechanism and dynamics of social change, to set the pace of socioeconomic growth, we encounter processes and structures of settlement, with various sizes, forms, functions, and rates of growth. These play an important role in the socio-economic development of societies. The correlation between the physico-spatial and the socio-economic processes and structures is clearly reflected in the differences in social behavior between the urban and the rural population, differences in the pattern of consumption prevailing among the inhabitants of small towns and those of the metropolis, and the differences in the patterns of values in developed and undeveloped regions. The nature and mechanism of socio-economic development cannot be determined without including settlement variables in the analysis. This gives additional arguments for the use of the concept of polarized development in studies of the spatial pattern of social development.

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AN ECOLOGICAL INTERPRETATION OF CITY DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES

The relations between the three systems of human activity: spatiotechnical, economic and socio-cultural is the subject of social ecology (Pioro, 1967). The basic assumption is the observation of the natural tendency of human beings to occupy that place in space where they can obtain the best possible satisfaction of their needs, needs which are defined by cultural patterns and regulated by the social organization and the level of productive forces. As basic human needs are much the same everywhere, and the ways and means of satisfying them within the same social group are not much differentiated, and also since convenient spots in any given area are few, men compete to take possession of them. The result of this competition is the displacement of the people in the area reflecting the economic, social and cultural relations within the community. This is the foundation for the growth of the whole spatial structure of the socio-economic life of countries and regions as well as single towns or villages. In the social sciences there are three schools of ecological interpretation of social processes and structures - the Marxist, the Dürkheim and the Chicago school. All three have one element in common: An assumption (and a corresponding research directive) that knowledge of social life cannot be confined merely to defining conscious motivations of human behaviour and identifying human relations manifested in social norms. To be complete, knowledge of a particular society must reach to the 'natural foundations of social' (Marx and Engels), to its 'substratum' (Dürkheim), to its 'biotic sphere' (Park). In spite of the different terminology used by these writers, a common theoretical standpoint can be found in their works. This can be formulated as follows: In view of essential relations between human behaviour and the physico-spatial background of social life, the latter cannot be omitted from sociological research if we wish to have a complex image of a society. Physico-spatial structures have functional value for the people; they are indispensable in meeting human needs, and they provide motivational impulses for various social attitudes and modes of behaviour. Robert Park, the leader of the Chicago school, assumed that competition of ecological units for socio-economic position is a basic form of human relations, closely linked with competition for a position in space - the so-called 'ecological niche'. But that competition, in consequence of the mutual interdependence of people and of economic and other institutions

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resulting from the social division of work, is automatically accompanied by a certain degree of cooperation. A struggle for survival reflected in competitive cooperation between men results in the organization of a 'biotic sphere' determining the distribution of people and their work places in more or less organized space. Empirical ecological studies made in Chicago showed that the spatial organization of an urban community is based on the domination of a service and administration centre over the whole area of a city and its suburban zone. Variations in land use, in the location of social and demographic structures, in the occurrences of biological and social pathology and other phenomena are a function of the distance between the centre of the city, in other words, its pole of development, and its different districts. The concept of a gradient in the occurrence of definite spatio-social phenomena makes it possible to identify correlations between social structures and the physical organization of urban areas. The problem of whether these structural correlations lead to social change, and in what way they stimulate or hinder the social and economic development of the city, has not been considered by social ecologists. Nevertheless, certain ecological processes have been singled out and defined - those of concentration and deconcentration, centralization and decentralization, selection and invasion - which can be included in the research apparatus of the sociology of development. In human ecology, concentration and deconcentration are both pertinent to change in the distribution of people in a given space. The change may take place as a result of: (a) an unbalance in migration flows; (b) different rates of natural population growth in rural and urban areas. Students of these processes observe that in pre-industrial towns a tendency towards concentration prevails, but with the progress of industrialization, as the price of land in the centre goes up simultaneously with its increasingly intensive use, the opposite tendency takes over. An ecological median for many industrial establishments is a big city, attracting the flow of raw materials, labour and capital and possessing a large and differentiated market. Thus a city centre becomes a focus of economic activities. Firms concentrated in the centre develop complementary specialization which enables them to take care of the diverse needs of a heterogenous community. Concentration of people enhances the qualities of a community by providing a selective range of highly skilled labour, increasing the standard of satisfaction of needs and affording opportunities for socio-spatial segregation.

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Deconcentration means a decrease of population and places of work in central city quarters with an accompanying increase of population and space-demanding industrial and service establishments in the suburban zone. The major factor in this process is the rise in the price of land in the city centre, where land is occupied by highly profitable commercial establishments. The development of means of transportation and especially of the private car has contributed to these processes. A human factor has also been present, namely, the prevailing opinion that life in a metropolis has a bad effect on health and morals. Deconcentration has brought about certain polarizing effects. Some industrial and service establishments moved to the suburbs, following the people and bringing a socio-economic boom to the metropolitan region. Industrial and commercial establishments and public services undergo a spatial change comparable to concentration; the process is called centralization. The increasing division of labour calls for a great deal of coordination and centralized supervision. As a result banks, insurance companies, industrial enterprises, etc., tend to locate their headquarters in big cities. But because of the high price of land in central districts, the difficulty of getting a good location in an intensively utilized area, the lower speed of traffic in the city centre, and the limited possibilities of getting skilled workers in dilapidated residential quarters, these enterprises tend to locate in the external urban zone. Social ecology oriented towards the search for correlations between space and society discovered relations between social differences and the physico-spatial 'substratum' and naturally turned its interest to places where these were most pronounced - where social conflicts were most dramatic and cultural clashes strongest - to cities and metropolitan regions. Works on ecological processes and structures in larger space units such as the region or the country are very few. So far, the leading representative of such interests is R. Mukerjee (1935) who has studied regions of planned economic development, the Tennesee Valley among others. In the view of this author, the subject matter of social ecology is the process of the adjustment of social structures to functions performed by definite communities, as well as the process of the integration of land, work and society. According to Mukerjee, land, work and society are ecological correlatives of environment, function and organism, which are the source of all social phenomena. In social ecology a basic research unit is a region, which is an ecological aggregation of people, an economic and cultural system. An ecological

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study of a region deals mainly with the disposition of natural resources, centres of work and people; these three factors form an interrelated cultural system. Through the use of the region rather than the city as a unit, a better grasp can be obtained of the whole complex of socioeconomic relations and natural values formed in the process of exchanges between man and nature. Ecological studies of regions have led Mukerjee to the following conclusions: (1) regions differ from one another not only in their natural endowment but also in the level of their physical and socio-economic development; (2) a settlement network within a region is differentiated, certain units dominating others. Theoretical generalization of social ecology makes it possible to interpret the results of sociological research on social development within territorial units in the categories of the 'polarized development theory'. Introducing a space factor into research procedure enables us to relate the process of global social development to the spatially differentiated economic and social structures of the country and to different forms of settlement.

A SOCIOLOGICAL INTERPRETATION OF POLARIZED DEVELOPMENT

The essence of the theory of development poles is that it accentuates forces that polarize socio-economic activities: locational decisions, investment processes, migration of people, organization of socio-economic conditions favourable to development, etc. In this work the term 'polarizing forces' means the endeavours of socio-economic units (ecological units in the broad sense) to occupy positions in space from which they can effectively pursue their aims: production, services, personality development, community participation, social control, etc. The history of cities as well as theoretical works of social geographers prove that the spatial concentration of ecological units ensures better effects than their amorphous dispersion. The polarization of impulses emanating from the centre leads in the hinterland to an increase of economic activities and structural social and cultural changes with concomitant restructuration of the settlement system. Economic theories of growth and polarized development, though still far from having attained a precise and empirically verified exposition of their basic components, have nevertheless linked, in a convincing way, the

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process of economic development with its spatial organization and have determined the role of physical planning in the activation of the economic life of cities, regions and countries. Geographers are quite explicit in maintaining that concentration of economic and social life is a major feature of activities promoting human development. They have identified three compelling factors making for faster concentration of economic and social life in contemporary civilization: the development of large-scale production and services, the rapid growth of population, and the progress of technology in all spheres of life but particularly in the field of transportation and communication. Geographers consider the economic effects of concentration positive but are not unanimous as to the social ones. There is no doubt, however, that the degradation of the human environment accompanying concentration decreases the comfort of life (Leszczycki et al., 1971). The theoretical standpoint of geographers in matters of economic and social development includes analysis of economic, social and physical factors, making development mechanisms and effects more intelligible but not yet fully comprehensive. The factor of culture is still omitted. Sociological studies dealing with problems of development, progress, evolution, etc., related these to society as a whole and not to their geographical framework. If, on the other hand, they dealt with the role of spatial organization in social life, the problem of social development escaped their notice. 'Spatially oriented' sociologists confined themselves to statements on the role of cities in the development of civilization, on the spread of urbanization which transforms global structures and changes human relations and patterns of social behaviour in both towns and the countryside. The inclusion of the variable 'spatial organization' in the study of territorial communities may have both scientific and practical value, since spontaneous and planned 'organization of space' is a result of definite social forces and influences the spatial behaviour of the people concerned. The importance of the 'organization of space' in social life has already been stressed in the works of Emile Dürkheim, who, introducing social morphology to sociology, defined its descriptive and explanatory task as being to explain the process of the formation of urban social groups and the laws of their development. 'In reality', writes Dürkheim (1900), 'the structure of society is a system of persons and things, interrelated in a definite space'. Louis Wirth (1938), who continued the ecological trend in American sociology, accepting concentration as a primordial principle

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of urban growth, described the whole social system of the town, its structure and processes, its spatial and social mobility. Although he recognized the importance of spatial organization for the forms and substance of social life, Wirth failed to perceive the driving force in the concentration of people and production and services, which gives rise to the development of the material basis and socio-cultural progress of a given urban community. Jan Szczepaήski (1970) is in favour of including the issue of social development in sociological analyses. He states that 'only the Marxist school in sociology consequently used the dynamic approach to detect the rules of social development'. Szczepariski's standpoint as to the legitimacy of the sociological interpretation of social development leaves no room for doubt: 'The facts of development are unquestionable, and it is the business of sociologists to study the rules of this development. They are fit for empirical treatment, for statistical description; they can be measured and expressed by the help of indices'. J. Szczepariski concluded in this way: 'Sociological analyses of development processes and social change, as well as analyses of economic growth made by economists, have led to the conclusion that the development of society can be purposefully directed according to plan.' The theoretical works of physical planners provide additional arguments for the necessity of including the 'spatial factor' in analyses of social development and support the theory of the polarizing tendency in settlement processes. B. Malisz (1966) explicitly recognizes that the production of goods always depends on the assembling of a suitable potential labour force in a convenient place. He also draws attention to the growth of agglomeration effects around the concentration of work places, and to the 'external economies' of the clustered location of numerous industrial and service establishments'. 'Thus the factor of concentration is at the root of settlement', writes Malisz, 'processes of concentration, started in one place, are later on governed by their own laws.' The worldwide practice of economic planning gives a different meaning to the term 'social development' than it used to have in sociological textbooks and in works on the history of social philosophy. It appears in a different context than was formerly used for the designation of spontaneously released energy (Bergson's ""έΐαη vital') or hidden potentialities of human individuals to move from undefined homogeneity to harmonious heterogeneity (Spencer). The present meaning of the term 'social development' denotes a con-

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scious, planned introduction of new, stronger, and dynamic factors of development - economic, technical, organizational and cultural - in order to induce socio-economic and socio-cultural changes for the purpose of the fuller satisfaction of individual and collective needs in the process of the development of personality in the population. In the process of development this aim is attained mainly through increased productivity of labour, reduction of production costs, technical and organizational progress in production and services, increase of individual income and Gross National Product, educational development, diffusion of culture and the spatial ordering of settlement. These factors bring about the desired structural change in all the four spaces mentioned above. The realization of the chief aim and of secondary goals demands a suitable development strategy, which is usually inherent in comprehensive and integrated planning - economic, spatial, social, and cultural. One of the elements of this strategy is the localization of development activities. A careful selection of place has an important influence on the effectiveness of these activities and the attainment of the desired aims. An initial spatial structure of the national economy is of enormous importance for the choice of a spatial model of development activities because the existing production centres and infrastructure systems determine the effectiveness of subsequent allocations of investments. Economists, geographers, and physical planners have long since observed the phenomenon of the 'polarization' of economic processes and of related settlement processes. They have explained its course, its mechanism and its process, its technical, economic, geographic, social and cultural constraints, its cost and effects. Sociologists, however, having recognized the predominant and initiatory role of cities in the global development of society have not attempted to include all the pertinent factors in the analysis of the social development process, neglecting particularly its economic conditions and spatial set-up. Though Parsons and Smelcer (1956) tried to define the connections between economic and social life, concluding that the aim of the economy is not to provide the income of the population but to achieve maximum production in relation to the whole complex of cultural values and the functions of society, they still analyse these links not in accordance with categories of development but as a means of maintaining the balance of the existing social system. Empirical research in Polish sociological works, especially those on industrialized regions, are numerous, but they still await systematic gener-

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alization. J. Szczepafiski (1969) has only touched on the problem of the formation of local industrial communities under the conditions of a socialist planned economy. J. Ziolkowski has observed the polarizing effects of industrial concentration when he writes in the article 'Towards a sociology of regional development and planning' (1971): 'The significance of locating big industrial enterprise ... extends far beyond boundaries [of a given locality]. It sets in motion social processes in the whole adjacent area. It is the way urbanism is transmitted and the individual is fitted into the industrial system and the urban mode of behaviour'. Nevertheless, enough empirical data have been obtained, and the theoretical reflection of geographers, physical planners, economists, and regional scientists has been sufficient to substantiate the statement that in planned as well as in liberal economic systems, to the polarizing locational tendencies of economic activities there correspond polarizing settlement processes with concomitant changes of social structures. Methodical observation of the mechanisms of development leads to the conclusion that if economic development is adequate to the functions of a local community and corresponds to the system of values recognized by this community, the structure of the said community becomes richer, and the community is capable of providing conditions favourable to the universal development of individual personality mainly through complementary satisfaction of its various needs. What is more, it is capable of emitting development impulses through such factors as commuting to work and to service centres, the proliferation of mass communication media, the activity of administrative organs and social institutions. The process is visible in the form of the urbanization of rural areas, the development of suburban zones, the growth of agglomerations, increased demand for industrial product on country markets, etc., and it is accompanied by multiplier social effects which find expression in: (1) a growing demand in the hinterland of big cities for goods produced and services offered by the development centre; (2) selective migration to the centre from villages and small towns. Migrants are mostly persons who are more ambitious, more capable, more enterprising, but also more reckless than the rest, who in the unfamiliar conditions of the big city tend to drift to the margin of society.

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THE MODEL OF POLARIZED SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

On the strength of the arguments quoted above we can now formulate definitions and operational hypotheses which will help us to construct a theoretical model of a system of polarized social development and which, in a simplified but methodologically correct manner, will enable us to identify essential relations among the aims of social development in a given historical period, the means at the disposal of a given society to undertake development activities, the mechanisms of technical and economic processes, positive and negative social conditions, and economic, physical and socio-cultural effects. The attempt made here will be based on the observation of polarized development in a spatial micro-scale, i.e., within the sphere of influence of a single centre of development. As conditions in which social development proceeds and factors determining its speed and scope are very numerous, the model approach seems to be useful and communicative method. By a model approach we mean a simplified structuration of reality, composed of pertinent features and relations within a selected domain. However it will be a very subjective generalization, which does not take into account all observations, measurements and analyses. It leaves out unessential details and stresses important aspects of the problem under consideration, in our case, polarized socio-economic development. By 'structuration' of reality is meant a process of thinking which combines selected elements of reality in a functional whole (Chorley & Hagget, 1967). In our case the model acts as a platform between fragmentary research and observation of the development processes in cities and their hinterlands under the impact of industrialization and a theoretical handling of the subject. It also integrates such sciences as geography, economics, sociology, and physical planning, through the identification of the syndrome environment - population - work - culture. While maintaining a generally accepted convention of model procedure, a sociological model of polarized development will be presented in the form of a set of hypotheses, interrelated and consistent but related to five spaces: physical, economic, political, social, and cultural. In physical space development means spatial order ensuring the preservation of environment, the optimalization of the spatial behaviour of people and of the movement of good and information benefiting individuals and social groups and scenic beauty. In economic space development is realized by the increase in time of the

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production of goods per head, securing a higher level of consumption and connected with the structural change of the economic milieu (Secomski, 1970; Winiarski, 1966). In political space development is pursued by law-giving and law-abiding activities conducive to social order and democracy. In social space development is represented by any change in a given local community and its surrounding area that leads to the diversification, and enrichment of its components and of its social relations to the level of community as a function of the achievement of positive aims and following group-oriented cultural patterns (8ζϋζερ3ή8&, 1970). In cultural space development is the increasing capacity of individuals and the increasing possibility of groups to meet ever growing and ever more widely differentiated human needs to the full development of personalities (Kloskowska, 1964). Hypothesis 1. Concentration of places of work, especially of industrial work, is the cause of concentration of population. When a great number of places of employment are in close proximity, people can choose the work best suited to their training and interests. On the other hand, employers can also choose workers with the training, skills, and moral standards they require. The possibility of choice on both sides is an indispensable though not a sufficient condition for increased productivity, for innovations, for higher wages, for the expansion of the market. The heterogeneity of a concentrated population and the diversity of occupations, skills, and socio-cultural values create intellectual stimuli; although the wealth of patterns of behaviour and customs provokes adjustment conflicts, it has nonetheless a strong power of attraction which makes people wish to belong to the community in question and to participate in its life; and such wishes are favourable to the processes of social identification, to residential stability and stability in employment and to development. Hypothesis 2. Concentration of production and services by facilitating their complementarity, by allowing the utilization of a common (and consequently cheaper per production unit) technical infrastructure, by the employment of highly skilled personnel, promoting scientific research and advancing progress in technology and organization has economic and social effects incomparably greater than those obtained through decentralization. But it has negative side-effects: deterioration of the environment

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and increased social pathology. The question is to determine the limit beyond which the centralization of establishments and concentration of people involve such high social costs that they turn the initial advantages of agglomeration into losses, through such effects as the deterioration of healthy conditions of living, the loss of time in commuting, the disintegration of the family, the aggressive behaviour of youth, etc. Hypothesis 3. With the aid of the balance of social and economic gains and losses it is possible to determine the optimum limits of concentration and centralization. Taking into account the phenomenon of polarization, the balance-making operation should cover both the development centre and its zone of influence. As the balancing of polarization effects comprises measurable and non-measurable elements, it should be done with techniques familiar to cultural anthropology and comprehensive planning. In the last resort, the non-measurable, qualitative effects of development have the highest priority. Hypothesis 4. The 'human factor', in other words the value of man, is of primary importance in development processes, in the sphere of decisionmaking, innovations, organization, and execution. Hence the economic and socio-cultural effects of concentration can be weakened or even extinguished through the influence of a negative 'psycho-social infrastructure' : the lack of proper training for workers employed in various sectors of development activities, poor management, negative patterns of behaviour among the workers, etc. The effects of polarization depend in great measure on the integration and comprehensiveness of development activities. Investment processes should be preceded by education and training; the growth of income should be accompanied by the development of cultural needs, so as to avoid 'pathological consumption' and the consequent waste of the effects of economic development. Hypothesis 5. The polarizing influence of a development centre on its surroundings, uncontrolled by conscious planning, may cause selective migrations which strip the region of the material and human factors of development. The attraction of a big city for the inhabitants of villages and small towns is so great that the individuals who are the most enterprising and least integrated with their local community move to cities at the cost of overcoming the difficulties of adjustment to an unfamiliar milieu and of earning a living in it. As a result of such selective migration,

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areas surrounding development centres are drained of the factors of development (financial and human) and cannot keep up with the growth of the centre, which widens the original gap between them. Hypothesis 6. The effects of polarization may counteract the process of selective migration. Commuting to work, increased in consequence of the concentration of places of work in the centre, emergence of the 'farmworker' class, heterogenization of occupational structures in rural settlements, additional sources of income of a large part of agricultural population, housing shortage in cities - all these factors form stabilizing tendencies among the suburban population, turning the suburbs into aD agglomeration. Inhabitants of the centre with their growing needs, contribute to th& expansion of the market, multiplying the demand for agricultural products for direct consumption. This brings about a change in the profile of agriculture in suburban zones towards the cultivation of vegetables and garden products and animal husbandry which intensifies agricultural work and increases the income of farmers, all of which, in their final effect, create an economic basis for both social and cultural urbanization. Hypothesis 7. The polarizing activity for the development centre in social and cultural spaces brings about multiplier effects in the form of increasing and varied demands for services and cultural goods in the centre. Here we can observe the direct influence of social factors promoting economic growth. A direct influence is transmitted through the media of changed ideology, value patterns, and attitudes favouring development activities. Hypothesis 8. Neglect of the mechanism and effects of development poles (especially the effects of polarization) in planning and in implementation creates around the development centre a zone of social tension caused by people's unsatisfied needs, expectations and aspirations. First of all, this results in a delayed implementation of those part of investment projects which concern in social infrastructure: housing and services. Disproportion among the separate elements of an investment programme may hamper the socio-economic development of a given city or region. Social tensions, not liquidated in time, do not promote productivity; they cause feelings of frustration and attitudes of alienation. In extreme cases they may lead to political tensions.

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Hypothesis 9. The efficient functioning of the development centre, measured in terms of social, cultural, and economic effects such as increased participation in the formation of the Gross Domestic Product, increased production of consumption goods, improvement in housing conditions, largely depends on the 'spatial order', i.e., the restructuring of the settlement system corresponding to the altered functions and forms of life. Only physical planning and architectural designing can assure 'spatial order' in the dynamic urbanization of the centre and its hinterland. Hypothesis 10. The socio-economic efficiency of the development centre is largely conditioned by the competent functioning of the local authority: the scope of its competence and responsibility and the professional and moral qualifications of its personnel. A local apparatus of power that is not very flexible by nature and is unprepared to take decisions of more than local importance is usually taken by surprise by dynamic development processes. The development rate and its spatial range depend to a great extent on the adaptability of the administrative system and its personnel to the rate of economic and social change. Hypothesis 11. The universality and durability of the effects of development depend in some degree on the realization of social initiatives, on the creation of a social atmosphere favourable to the establishment and functioning of self-government, and on the democratization of authority and power. An essential role in the preparation and implementation of development plans is played by such factors as the sensibility of individuals to social duties and obligations developed on the basis of recognized social bonds and their ability to identify themselves with the development programme of country or region, city or village. Social participation in development activities gives effect to the decisions of planners, fills in 'gaps' in planning, and makes the plans more flexible and better related to the changing socio-economic situation. Hypothesis 12. The undertaking of development activities and their selection depends for the most part on the established socio-economic policy of the government. This policy stems from the growing needs and aspirations of the people, increasing economic and technical possibilities, and the international political and economic situation. The government's socio-economic policy regulates the scale of needs and aspirations and the degree of their satisfaction and decides what means and material resources can be used in a given time to meet people's needs and fulfil

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social obligations. Polarized development guarantees a better satisfaction of individual and collective needs, which are shaped by the ideology and the cultural patterns prevailing in the sphere of influence of the development centre. Hypothesis 13. The extension of development activities and the attainment of their maximum efficacy depend on the ideology prevailing in a given area. On the one hand, ideology determines the aims and strategy of socio-economic policy; on the other, it acts as a motivating power for self-identification with planned development activities (or for resisting them) and for undertaking spontaneous individual activities. The influence of ideology upon the motivations of development activities takes effect for the most part through the mechanism of polarization, owing to the greater frequency of social contacts within the sphere of influence of the poles of development than outside it. Hypothesis 14. Polarized development is to be conceived as a dynamic temporal process concomitant with a specific stage in the global socioeconomic development of a country and the interregional and international division of work.

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Piöro

DEVELOPMENT

PHYSICAL SPACE

ECONOMIC SPACE

goals

life environment

growth of wealth

means

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

land requirement infrastructure development modernization of obsolete structures technical polarization

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

increase of functions growth of production increase of incomes economic polarization

constraints

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

protection of agriculture land protection of environment scarcity of housing and infrastructure uncontrolled development

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

scarcity of qualified work lack of resources and implements market unbalance social costs

structural hierarchy of settlement units spatial integration flexibility of development programmes diversity of spatial patterns

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

external economies complementarity decentralization of decisions incentives to innovations

spatial order environment building optimation of spatial behaviour humanization of urban space

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

multiplier effects multi-enterprises integration technical progress satisfaction of growing needs

1. 2. mechanisms 3. 4. 5.

effects

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

The aggregate

model

T o facilitate the comprehension of polarized development it may be useful to formulate an aggregate model framework, setting out the crucial factors, mechanisms, and effects of development as they appear in five basic functional spaces: economic, physical, political, social, and cultural. The first consideration implicit in the model proposed below is that polarized development by its very nature is multidimensional and multispatial with closely interconnected elements. The second consideration is that identified in the model: goals, means, constraints, mechanisms, and effect of polarization are not exhaustive;

A sociological concept of polarized

157

development

POLITICAL SPACE

SOCIAL SPACE

CULTURAL SPACE

law and order

community

personalities development

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

competence and responsibility development of structures efficient by-laws people's participation ...

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

immigration 1. educational development incr. of job opportunities 2. diversity of life styles growth of needs 3. diversity of values social polarization 4. cultural polarization ... 5. ...

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

overcentralization bureaucracy conflicts authority society pressure groups ...

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

adaptation conflicts pathol. consumption pathol. behaviour anomie ...

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

conflicts of values scarcity of facilities uniformism of cult, policy mass culture ...

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

democracy self-government social control of admin. sociotechnics ...

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

institutionalization professionalization social mobility prolif. of social contacts ...

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

diffusion of patterns individualization of patterns freedom of choice inter-stimulation ...

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

participation in culture creativeness morality devel. of human endowment ...

1. law and order 2. efficiency 3. welfare 4. identification 5. ...

1. social order 2. justice 3. freedom 4. security 5. ...

within the framework, as research proceeds, other categories and facets could be added. Moreover, interspatial linkages make strict delimitation and categorization of these facets very difficult in practice. One can shift any particular category from one space to another or from one set of factors of mechanisms to another. On the basis of the above considerations the model of polarized development is presented here in the form of a table. The development process, consisting of the five sub-processes: economic, physical, political, social, and cultural, is separated into two groups of factors: means and constraints, and two groups of phases: mechanisms and effects. In each spatial sub-process a goal is defined.

158

Zygmunt

Piöro

REFERENCES

Boudeville, J. R. (1966) Problems of regional economic planning. Edinburgh. Chorley, R. R., & Hagget, P. (1967) Models in geography. London. Dürkheim, Ε. (1900) La Sociologie et son domain scientifique. Paris. Friedmann, J. (1961) Cities in social transformation, Comp. Stud. Soc. Hist. (1966) Regional development theory: A case of Venezuela. Cambridge, Mass. Hermansen, T. (1972) Development poles and development centres in national and regional development. In A. Kuklinski (Ed.), Growth poles and growth centres in regional planning. Paris-The Hague, Mouton (UNRISD Ser., Regional Planning, Vol. 8). Hirschman, A. O. (1958) The strategy of economic development. New Haven, Conn. Kloskowska, A. (1964) Kultura Masowa (Mass culture). Warsaw. Kuklinski, A. (1970) Regional development, regional politicies and regional planning. In K. Mihailovic, Regional development: Experiences and prospects in Eastern Europe. Paris-The Hague, Mouton (UNRISD Ser., Regional Planning, Vol. 4). Leszczycki, S., Eberhardt, P., Herman, S. (1971) Aglomeracje miejsko-przemyslowe 1966-2000 (Urban-industrial agglomerations in Poland 1966-2000). Warsaw. Malisz, B. (1966) Zarys teorii krztaltowania ukladow osadniczych (The outline of theory of planning settlement system). Warsaw. Marx, K., Engels, F. (1949) Feuerbach. In Selected philosophical works 1844-1846. Warsaw. Mukerjee, R. (1935) Social ecology. New York. Park, R. (1926) Urban community. Chicago. Parsons, T., & Smelcer, N. J. (1956) Economy and society. New York. Penouil, M. (1972) Growth poles in underdeveloped regions and countries. In A. Kuklinski & R. Petrella (Eds.), Growth poles and regional policies. Paris-The Hague, Mouton (CEUCORS Ser., Vol. 3). Perroux, F. (1950) Economic space: Theory and application, Quart. J. Econ. Piöro, Ζ. (1967) Ecological interpretation of settlement systems, International Journal of Social Science. UNESCO. Reissman, L. (1964) The urban process: Cities in industrial societies. London. Secomski, K. (1970) Czynniki spoleczne we wspölczesnym rozwoju gospodarczym (Social factors in contemporary economic development). Warsaw. Sczepanski, J. (1969) Przemysl i spoleczenstwo w Polsce ludowej (Industry and society in the Polish Peoples Republic). Wroclaw. (1970) Elementarnepojqcia socjologii (Elementary sociological concepts). Warsaw. Winiarski, B. (1966) Podstawy programowania ekonomicznego rozwoju regionow (The elements of programming regional economic development). Wirth, L. (1938) Urbanism as a way of life, American Journal of Sociology. Ziolkowski, J. (1971) Towards a sociology of regional development and planning, The New Atlantis, 2.

4

LEO Η. KLAASSEN / SJOERD WAGENAAR

Towards an operational definition of psychological distance

1. In the theory of social communication it is assumed that the intensity of communication between different social and/or economic groups is determined inter alia by the psychological distance between these groups. Psychological distance is supposed to indicate a degree of separation, which acts as a barrier, that is experienced by the members of the groups. However, in practical research concerning communication flows (e.g., traffic, migration, telephone calls) one often observes a transition from psychological distances between groups to psychological distances between regions these groups live in. In this paper a similar procedure is adopted by the authors. In empirical applications psychological distance is often replaced by physical distance because of the fact that until now one did not succeed in quantifying this - not very well defined - concept. Certainly, physical distance is a very important element in psychological distance, but psychological distance should not just be treated as a function of distance only. The psychological distance between two regions is in this view not only dependent upon the distance between those regions, but also on the composition of both regions as far as social and/or economic groups are concerned. In this note an effort is made to give an operational definition of psychological distance. 2. Suppose the following deterministic expression = ccklSfSjexp{ — ßdij}

fc,/

= 1

s; Uj = 1,.... r

(2.1)

in which V*2) is the size of communication per unit of time between group k in i and group I in j, in which the initiative is taken by members of group k in i.

Leo

160

Η.

KlaassenjSjoerd

Wagenaar

is the intensity of communication between one member of group k and one member of group / if the initiative of the communication is taken by the first and if the distance between the two members were zero. . .

cb

LLI

•Λ V

Ο

Q. %

VOV

ο rX

4? DISTRIBUTION

Figure 1.

-V

Oy

V- J \v,o Κΐι X /

£

.0

OO

OF

INCOME

Selected indicators in social planning: A systematic view

In fact, the last is likely to be an illusion for two reasons. Firstly, effective intervention depends upon a systematic sequence of events; this requires careful identification of causal relationships so that a desired chain of events can be initiated and accommodated. Secondly, the correlations

236

Morgan Sant

between particular components are likely to be less than perfect, so that any form of indirect intervention inevitably involves an element of wastage. But for any such system to be used as a basis for planning requires both that it should be proved to work and that it should be supported by social statistics of a high quality and quantity. Unfortunately, it often occurs that, while goals or objectives can be freely stated, they cannot be adequately monitored, because the relevant data are not available (Biderman, 1966). The problems at the regional level occur as a result of different regional definitions, variability in the periodicity of data collection, inaccurate estimates, or just a simple absence of any usable statistics. This occurs despite the fact that a large number of sets of social and economic statistics exists in Britain. The Census of Population alone contains over 400 items relating to number, age, household composition, residential accommodation, migration, journey-to-work, occupation and industry, and so on (Cheshire, 1970). In addition, there are large sets, collected by government agencies on a more frequent periodicity, and many ad hoc surveys conducted by individuals and departments to gain information on specific issues (Hammond, 1968; Central Statistical Office, 1973). Yet the conventional criticisms remain. Much of the data is at the wrong geographical scale for planners and many of the series are insufficiently long or frequent in their periodicity to test hypotheses about processes of social or economic change. 2.3 Social and economic indicators

We have learned that there is no way in which social factors can be totally separated from economic and environmental factors. Their interrelationships were identified in Lomas's model (Figure 1). Yet we were careful in discussing that to note the strong likelihood that indicators are imperfectly correlated and that this has major implications for regional policy and planning. This is a point that we shall return to later, but here we wish to investigate the variations in the regional distribution of selected social and economic indicators and to review certain analytical problems which this poses. Table 1 contains the rank correlation coefficients of a set of variables as they applied to the ten planning regions of Britain in recent years. All but one are static variables, relating to conditions at a point in time or over a short period: the exception is migration, which relates to net changes during 1951-1966. These are, of course, very large regional units (Figure 2)

Social disparities and regional policy

237

CONURBATIONS 1 -Greater London 2-West Midland 3-South East Lancashire 4-Merseyside 5-West Yorkshire 6-Tyneside 7-Central Clydeside O.M.A.-Outer Metropolitan Areas

SOOTLAN D

Φ Ό NOR Τ Ή

NORTHf WEST

YORKSHIRE & ' Ä u r f e l ^ D E

EAST •WESTUM IQL AMDS'

-Wales / m i d l a n d s

••·:.,·/ΕΑ:?Τ,··. ANGLIA

.·: O.M.A.>

SÖU.TH SO.ÜTH-WEST

Figure 2. Planning regions and statistical sub-divisions in Britain

EAST

238

Morgan Sani

and, as we show later, there is a considerable level of variation to be found within regions: often this exceeds the variance between regions. However, even at a more disaggregated level, there still tend to be wide differences in the correlation between variables and in a number of cases the coefficients are lower. Table 1. Rank order correlation coefficients of Selected social and economic indicators; standard regions in Britain 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1. Sickness benefit per man at risk 19651969 2. Pupils aged 16 or over 1966

0.115

3. Female activity rates 1970

-0.442

-0.030

0.891

0.145

-0.539

5. Net income per capita 1968-1969

-0.903

-0.006

0.455

-0.915

6. Net migration 19511966 (per cent of resident population in 1951)

-0.715

-0.006

0.176

-0.588

0.745

7. Per cent of population retired 1971

-0.042

0.127

-0.612

0.006

0.067

4. Unemployment rates 1965-1970

0.636

Note: 10 standard regions

What Table 1 indicates is that economic variables tend to be quite closely related to each other, but that social variables tend to be related poorly with each other and only moderately with economic variables. Thus, unemployment and incomes, two of the key variables used in regional economic analysis and policy, have similar, though inverse, distributions (R = —0.915) and both are moderately well reflected in the rate of net migration (respectively, R — —0.588 and 0.745). But when we consider the industrial health, educational provision and age structure of regions, we find that not one of these is closely related to either of the others; the highest rank correlation between any pair is only 0.127.

Social disparities and regional policy

239

What are the implications of this for planning and policy-making? Above all, it is clear that no single policy can successfully be implemented which will remove disparities among all indicators. This poses a problem requiring analysis of the importance of different variables and the weights to be assigned to them in deciding upon alternative policies. 2.4 Regional dimensions At this point we need to consider two important issues concerning the regional framework of social structure and change. The first relates to whether there is an appropriate regional dimension for social analysis and description. In both economic policy and physical planning the need to identify and designate bounded areas for particular treatment is an important function in decision-making. For it to be feasible to adopt a regional approach to social disparities, it is no less necessary to identify a relevant and realistic regional framework. The second question is associated with this, and concerns the locus of power in decision-making on regional issues in Britain; namely, where power now lies and where it could be made to lie. 2.4.1 Regions: Homogeneous or heterogeneous? If we consider briefly an hypothetical country, it is possible to find a variety of patterns or disparities. The first can be described as giving rise to quasi-homogeneous regions; that is substantial areas in which all (or great majority) of the communities have similar values on a particular indicator. There may be considerable variation within communities, but this is a separate issue. Significant differences exist between regions, but not within them. Secondly, we may find a set of hierarchical regions, with each one corresponding to the sphere of influence of its highest-ranking central place. Their definition tends to be unspecific, depending upon the rank of places used in classification and the choice of measures of influence, but such regions tend to display the twin attributes of functional heterogeneity and integration. Within-region disparities in this set of regions are often almost as great as those occurring nationally, but they tend to be related to their hierarchical structure. Thirdly, another source of heterogeneity within a national framework is associated with spatial trends, reflecting relative location. In consequence, we may find two otherwise similar regions, or two sub-divisions within a region, displaying marked differences on a particular indicator, primarily as a result of their different

240

Morgan Sant

Special Development

Figure 3. The Assisted Areas in Britain, 1972

Areas

Development

Areas

Intermediate

Areas

Derelict Land Areas

Clearance

Social disparities and regional policy

241

accessibility. Finally, disparities may appear as geographically random; that is, they do not fit into a framework of functional regions, nor do they reflect the spatial trend of a social or economic factor. This is not to state that they have no localised correlates, but only that they lack a broader functional basis. These dimensions are not mutually exclusive, and it is possible for all of them to occur at the same time. Thus the regional form of one indicator may be quasi-homogeneous, while another is hierarchical, and so on. Now, the problems which this creates for integrated regional policies can become insurmountable. It may be the case that indicators fall into the last of the categories listed above, in which case regional policies tend to lose relevance. On the other hand, a mixture of the first three presents major problems for the designation of areas for assistance and the establishment of agencies to implement the policies. It may be necessary to establish a different agency to deal with each issue, and for each agency to operate to different boundaries. Returning to the British context, we see that all of these dimensions occur, resulting in a highly variegated regional framework for policy and planning. For example, regional economic policy tends to treat areas as if they were homogeneous. The present Assisted Areas cover large tracts on the basis of a general similarity of problems (Figure 3). This is especially true of the Special Development Areas, which were designated where high and persistent unemployment had resulted, or was expected to result, from colliery closures. On the other hand, access to medical facilities and the planning of investment in hospitals tends to reflect the hierarchical nature of settlement systems. Yet, because medical services have different ranges and thresholds from other services, the boundaries of area and regional hospital boards tend to differ from those of other services. Lastly, there are indicators whose distribution may be either quasihomogeneous or hierarchical, but whose significance is viewed entirely in national or sectoral terms. In such cases, intervention, where it occurs, tends to be centralised or to be carried out by nominees of central government, usually in the form of the local authorities. Examples in Britain occur in the fields of education and provision for retirement. 2.4.2 Regions as a locus of power ? In discussing the nature of regional disparities it becomes clear that these present a variety of patterns. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the roles played by agents operating on different geographical

242

Morgan Sant

scales. The regional level is not one that has attracted significant power to itself in the past, and to evaluate the chances of its doing so in the future requires an investigation of the functions carried out by all levels of action group. We have summarised in a highly schematic form these functions and groups in Table 2. Table 2.

A schematic view of intervention in social issues

ACTIVITY

ACTION GROUP

Identification/promotion of issues

Central government

Regional authorities

Local authorities

Households

*

*

*

*

Statement of objectives

**

*

Definition of policies

**

*

Formulation of instruments

**

*

**

**

Sectoral groups **

Implementation of policies Monitoring

**

*

*

*

** Major effective influence * Minor effective influence

The activities of intervention have been listed as a simple sequence, through the identification of issues to monitoring the impact of policies. In fact, there is unlikely to be such simplicity; events overtake each other, conditions change, new action groups emerge, raising new issues, and so on. Nevertheless, it is possible to indicate broadly where action groups of different types fit into the scheme. For this, five groups have been identified; four apply directly or indirectly to geographical dimensions; of these, the national government clearly has the widest range, covering the whole country, while households are the most localised. In addition, we have indicated groups concerned only with specific sectoral interests. Although these are likely to operate over the entire country, they are easily distinguished by their singleness of purpose. The distinction between 'regional' and 'local' scales must necessarily be arbitrary. Here we take local to mean units which have elected councils. These range in size from parishes, through districts to counties (the last

Social disparities and regional policy

243

two having been reorganised in a new system of local government in 1974). Clearly, at the county level it is possible to recognise significant geographical variations, but this unit has a homogeneity of political and administrative institutions. In contrast, regions are generally units used by central government, often defined differently for specific purposes and without real autonomy. This may change if the findings of the Kilbrandon Report (Cmnd 5460, 1973) are made law, but at present the regions of Britain are limited to having Economic Planning Councils, with appointed members, to advise central government. Reviewing what occurs in practice, we tend to find that central government exerts a major effective influence in each stage of intervention, although, of course, different branches of government undertake different roles. Research divisions of various ministries collect and analyse information and identify issues which may, after further research to evaluate their significance and implications for intervention, become incorporated in the programme of a government. But other groups are also highly active at the issues stage. Sectoral pressure groups tend to be the leading ones, but an influence is also exerted by households and by local and regional bodies. The latter can be further sub-divided into the 'official' and the 'unofficial'. Examples of the unofficial have been given by the pressure for cultural preservation in Wales and by the re-emergence of the economic nationalism of Scotland. The official aspect of regional action has been a more recent phenomenon and is largely associated with the establishment by central government of research teams located in the regions to conduct 'strategic planning' exercises, collecting information and making recommendations to both central government (to assist in its policy formation) and to local authorities, in order to help them to integrate their own planning. Strategic plans to date have covered the South East, the North West and East Anglia and others are in progress elsewhere in Britain. The role of local bodies at this stage is a dual one. Apart from being the major intermediaries between central government and households, they are also substantial budgetary agents in their own right, collecting and disbursing over £10,000 million in 1971/1972 (or about 20 per cent of the British gross domestic product). This, augmented by the wide differences in the social structure and trends among local authorities, places on them the need to conduct their own identification of local issues as well as representing more general issues to central government. In passing, we should note that a large part of the income of local authorities is derived from central government in the form of a

244

Morgan Sant

Rate Support Grant which has been based on the disparity between the yield of the local tax base and the national average rateable value. Some local authorities have particularly low rateable values, resulting from the nature of their industrial and residential development; others have very high values. The effect of rate support grant has been to reduce the disparity without actually removing it since the latter group remains above the average in its resources. However, it is open to central government to alter the allocation of the grant, possibly on a regional basis, to increase the income, for example, of older industrial districts, giving them more for environmental improvements or the provision of more social services. From this point onwards, until the monitoring of the impact of policy, effective influence at each stage is shared between central and local governments. With the exception of Scotland- which is somewhat more than a planning region, having a degree of political autonomy - no British region has either the institutions or the power to participate in the policy making and implementation process in other than a weak advisory capacity. 2.5 Hypotheses In the introduction we distinguished between four broad relationships occurring among the notions of'society', 'development' and 'space'. Each of these relationships can be expressed in terms of a number of specific hypotheses. However, at this time we must limit the discussion to one of the relationships, and to a general hypothesis ensuing from it. This is that regional development has been responsible, wholly or partly, for increases in the level of social polarization within and among regions. Note that we do not claim that social polarisation per se is caused by development. It can, and does, exist in a variety of forms without economic change; additionally, it can be postulated that social change (and polarisation) has a causal role in the nature and rate of economic development (Utria, 1971). Our concern here is only with marginal changes in economic and social distributions. We should also emphasise that it is not being asserted that development inevitably adds to regional polarisation, but only that this has been the trend in Britain to date. There may be a later stage when negative polarisation occurs, analogous to the saturation stage in an information-diffusion model. Also, there is a need to distinguish between national social polarisation and spatial or regional social polarisation; that is, regions might become increasingly dissimilar in their social

Social disparities and regional policy

245

composition at the same time as society as a whole is becoming more homogeneous. 'Social polarisation' is defined here as "a change in the distribution of social [groups] in a defined geographical area such that, either the proportion of the population at the two extremes of the social continuum increases; or the proportion of the population at one point only on the continuum increases; or the distribution becomes more unlike an actual or hypothetical 'norm' distribution" (Harris, 1973). For present purposes we take the 'defined geographical area' as either the complete national territory, seeking evidence of polarisation between regions, or as individual regions, attempting to identify polarisation among their sub-divisions. The importance of this dual approach derives from the earlier discussion on the nature of disparities, in which it was stated that indicators have a variety of distributions. In her discussion of polarisation, Harris (1973) lists a number of points which require clarification. These include: (a) The need to distinguish between geographical scales of analysis. The size and nature of areas can influence the conclusions; for example, an under-bounded region may show negative polarisation, whereas a larger area would exhibit increasing polarisation. (b) The need to specify clearly the variables under discussion. Identifying a number which had been used in previous studies (social class, occupation, income, age, family cycle, career cycle, housing tenure and life chances), Harris asserts a need to consider each one separately rather than relying upon inferences drawn from one to reach conclusions about another. (c) The need to distinguish between the characteristics of the total population in an area from those pertaining to the sub-group being studied. To these we would add one further point. The desirability of social polarity is not something that can be measured in isolation. There may be instances in which the existence of skewed population structures in particular areas has economic advantages both for the national system and for the area so affected. In other cases, the correcting of an imbalance might lead to side-effects which themselves create problems which outweigh the partial solution. Hence, although the question of 'desirability' can be raised before analysis of a particular variable, it is not possible to reach conclusions until later, and then only in conjunction with an evaluation of its relationships with other social and economic variables. It is common for the explanation of social polarisation among regions

246

Morgan Sant

to be initiated in theories of regional development. That is, development proceeds along a course which necessitates functional and regional specialisation. Eventually, regions (and the sub-divisions within them) emerge with different industrial and occupational structures, but in the process of achieving this there must be different rates of change among both industries and regions. These are accompanied by disparities in factor returns which may be counteracted by movements of population, although in a cumulative causation model the opposite is likely to occur and disparities will be widened by migration (Myrdal, 1957). This scenario has been described very briefly, and perhaps has been over-simplified, but it contains the basis for at least some of the broad variations that occur among and within regions. Also, within the same general reasoning, more recent developments have added to the nature of regional specialisms. Thus, for example, the trend in corporate industrial structures have favoured a division between production and control. Within Britain the rate of change in administrative and managerial occupations has been fastest in the South East, while a disproportionate share of mobile branch plants, mainly employing personnel in the blue collar, production occupations, has gone to peripheral regions. The result is a widening of differences between regions (Westaway, 1974). But this is a mechanistic approach, which provides only a partial explanation of social disparities. It is also necessary to take into account the 'space preferences' of the population and their influence upon the effective demand for residential locations. This operates at both the interand intra-regional scales, although it appears to have much greater significance for the latter. At the inter-regional level there is, no doubt, a perceived advantage to mobile households of location in certain regions; Eversley (1965) asserts this as an important constraint on the movement of industry to the older industrial regions. Among retired people, interregional migration in the direction of unindustrialised coastal regions, especially in southern England, seems to give further confirmation. At the intra-regional level, however, the effect of space preferences appears to be particularly marked. Pähl (1967, p. 239) has argued that disparities in incomes lead to a dichotomous valuation of space (or residential density). In his study of the rural/urban fringe of the London metropolitan region he found wide differences in the styles of life of two broad sub-groups of the population: 'For members of the working class, who commute to work out of the area, space is a "constraint", which has to be overcome and the cost of doing so is an added burden on the family

Social disparities and regional policy

247

... By contrast, for a section of the middle class, space, far from being a constraint, is valued as an amenity, which should be preserved. Space may become a symbol of a certain style of life to which such middle-class people aspire and the economic burden of crossing it, in order to reach employment and amenities, is an accepted concomitant of their way of life. Such people choose to live in an area where working-class people may be forced to live and the residential pattern is a resolution of the two forces.' In metropolitan regions, where there is also a tendency to industrial dispersal to suburbs and surrounding towns, this can lead to centre/periphery polarisation. Those left in the centre have increasingly limited opportunities for social mobility, constrained to areas where employment is concentrated either in old-established and possibly declining manufacturing industries, where the wages are low, or the service sector, where opportunities for training and advancement may be less good (Pähl, 1971). Although it is important to guard against overgeneralisation - for example, Lomas (1973) has shown that low paid and low skilled workers are not yet concentrated exclusively or predominantly in the inner city, and that, in any case, these groups are heterogeneous there is a real trend towards greater polarisation in the metropolitan region, if not actually in London itself. Now, while it is possible for space preferences to be independent of economic changes, we would regard this as unlikely to occur in practice. If space is regarded as a consumer good, then, like other goods or services, it can be shown to have an income elasticity of demand. As economic growth leads to new levels and distributions of income, so the effective demand for space alters. But, price elasticity also is important and if the real costs of space consumption are changed (e.g., by lower transport costs per unit distance between residence and workplace), then demand will again be influenced. But, like many goods and services, space is a 'lumpy' commodity. We tend not to make small marginal increments of consumption, but rather to be in a situation of 'haves' and 'have nots'. Thus the effect of growth in incomes tends to be that even if all people received the same absolute increments, only those already at the upper end of the income scale would be able to realise their gain by spending more on space consumption by moving away from the inner cities. Moreover, by doing so - and by probably subconsciously adhering to a gravity model and only moving to the edge of the suburbs - they would tend to make it more difficult for the next stage of potential space consumers to move. The only way out of this dilemma would be for the first set to move

248

Morgan Sant

still further afield, vacating their area for the second set to move in. Thus we have two processes, both associated with regional development, which influence the pattern, degree and trends in social polarisation. One is economic, related to the composition and evolution of industrial specialisms; the other is behavioural, depending on the value people put upon their environments and geographical positions. Together these partly reinforce each other (for example, where light, technologically advanced industries locate in attractive rural environments), but they also have a tendency to work independently, giving rise to a highly variegated pattern of inter- and intra-regional disparities.

3 . A CASE STUDY: THE GEOGRAPHY OF RETIREMENT

The general discussion in the previous section raised a number of issues concerning the nature of social indicators, their integration in a systematic framework, their regional form, and so on. It was concluded that, far from being a simple extension of economic disparities, social indicators are likely to present a highly complex picture of regional variations and causation. In the present section attention is focussed on a single indicator, applying to one section of the population: the distribution of retirement. This group (which we define as men aged over 65 and women over 60) forms a large and growing proportion of the total population and has obvious differences from other sectors of the population. Apart from their -economic roles, as consumers rather than producers, they also have -different social functions and require services which are at least marginally different. Moreover, the retired population is far from being an homogeneous group, either in its characteristics or its behaviour, and this leads to other variations which are important. Thus, in reviewing the geography of retirement, we seek to validate the points raised in the earlier discussion. 3.1 Characteristics of the retired

Although chronological age is a less-than-perfect measure of physical and mental capacity, society nevertheless imposes limitations on activity through legislation. At the same time it provides age-specific social services: full-time education for the young, pensions for the retired. For the elderly this institutionalisation of roles is largely the result of our understanding of the aging process and its social consequences, but it also

Social disparities and regional policy

249

appears that the imposition of age-specific limitations is itself a partial cause of the types of behaviour exhibited by the retired population. For the majority, retirement is a sudden (though predictable) change in lifestyles. Under this condition it might be expected that readjustments also tend to be more marked than if the act of retirement were extended over a period of transition between full employment and unemployment. In view of the heterogeneity of the retired population, it is not surprising that alternative theories should have been developed. Basically, the divisions revolve around the concept of 'segregation' between the aging person and others in the social system to which he belongs (Shamas et al., 1968; Golant, 1972). On the one hand this is seen as a voluntary process, while on the other hand it has been postulated that normal aging involves the maintenance, for as long as possible, of former activities. There is also an historical approach, which asserts a trend towards growing segregation. Ultimately, however, the concern of all is that aging should be a process of successful adaptation between the individual and his environment. For this to occur, it is necessary both that the individual should be mentally and physically strong and that the environment should be supportive. The former requirement is largely a personal one, but can also be met by social services (especially health and education) before and during retirement. The latter is provided partly by the 'natural' characteristics of the place of retirement. Particularly important are access to family and to regularly used services. But it is also subject to the actions of planners through the provision of area-based public services and the conservation of environments. Thus the geography and sociology of retirement are closely related. The aging of populations is a common trend. As life expectancy increases, so a greater proportion reach old age and this is augmented in many countries by long term trends in the reduction of birth rates and family size. But not all countries have reached the same stage in their population structures (Table 3). Many still have very small proportions aged more than 65, and the range appears to be between less than 2 per cent among some of the developing tropical countries to more than 12 per cent in Western Europe. Britain is at the upper end of the spectrum. Moreover, the British trend is strongly upward (Table 4). In 1911 less than 8 per cent was above the present age of retirement; by 1951 the proportion had risen to 13.6 per cent and in 1971 stood at 16.2 per cent. This is due chiefly to a fall in birth rates and in mortality rates. Life expectancy at the age of 65 has increased very little during the present century.

250 Table 3. International

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of selected demographic

Sant

variables

Country

Per cent aged over 65 years

Life expectancy at birth (yrs)

Natural increase

Years of Census (C) or estimate (E)

Nigeria Columbia India Kenya Mexico

2.1 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7

37 45 41 50 62

2.5 3.4 2.6 3.0 3.4

1963 1964 1971 1969 1970

Japan Argentina Canada Australia United States

7.1 7.5 8.1 8.4 9.9

71 67 72 71 71

1.3 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.6

1970 C 1972 Ε 1971 C 1971 C 1970 C

Italy Hungary

10.7 11.4 13.1 13.7 14.2

70 69 72 72 70

0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2

1971 Ε 1970 C 1971 Ε 1970 C 1970 Ε

ENGLAND AND WALES

Sweden Austria

C C C C C

Source: Demographic yearbook, 1972; United Nations. 24th Issue.

Table 4. United Kingdom; proportion of population and over; females 60 and over) Year

Per cent aged over 65 (m) and 60 (f)

1871 1901

6.3 6.2

1931 1951

9.6 13.6

1961 1966

14.7 15.3

1971

16.2

Source: Annual abstract of statistics, HMSO, London.

of retirement

age (65

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3.2 Regional variations in Britain, 1961-1971 The proportion of the population in Britain which was above retirement age in 1971 was about 16.2 per cent. At the same time the range among the 70 statistical sub-divisions lay between 12.5 per cent and 30 per cent (Figure 4); among smaller areal units the range was substantially greater, with some areas having fewer than 10 per cent retired and others as many as 50 per cent. Such variations are clearly the result of long trends, particularly in patterns of migration (both of active and retired populations), although small residual differences also occur in fertility and mortality rates. High proportions mainly occur in areas which have consistently attracted retired migrants over several decades. The south east coast and the south west have their catchment areas predominantly in southern England, and especially in the metropolitan area. North Wales and parts of north Lancashire, with equally high proportions, tended to gain from north west England. In central Wales, on the other hand, the small inward movement for retirement is a minor component compared with the outward movement of active adults. At the other extreme is a contiguous belt stretching from the northern part of the metropolitan South East to the West Midlands. Here the balance of migration greatly favours the active adults; these are areas with the greatest concentration of growth industries in Britain, together with clusters of new towns built to absorb population from the London and West Midland conurbations. Although this static picture is important for giving a description of the relative distribution of retirement, it is only a partial view. Equally important are recent trends in the distribution and the contribution of changes in the retired population to the change in total population (Figures 5-8). All of these present patterns which are weakly correlated with the static distribution. Some of the areas already having very high proportions in 1961 continued to lead in the rate of growth of their retired population (e.g., the south coast, north Wales and north Lancashire). Also there are a few areas - particularly on the east coast - which had begun to become retirement areas by 1961, but received a greater proportion thereafter. But the most striking gains were in areas peripheral to the main conurbations; for example, the West Midlands exhibited a ring of rapid increase around Birmingham. Retirement also increased much more quickly in the outer metropolitan area, and in Cheshire and north east Wales, than in London, Manchester and Merseyside. But, in

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UK 16-2

Figure 4. The retired population in Britain, 1971. (Percentage of total population in statistical sub-divisions.)

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policy

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Figure 5. Changes in the distribution of the retired population in Britain, 1961-1966

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addition to the conurbations, there was also a much slower than average rate of increase in the remoter rural areas in Wales and Scotland. Neither of these had large net inflows of retired migrants and both, as areas of outmigration of the active for over a century, have a slow natural increase in the elderly as well as the young. In general, the patterns of migration among the retired population (Figure 6) exhibit the elements of a 'gravity' model (Olsson, 1965). That is, the largest flows originate in the larger centres of population and cover short distances; Greater London to the outer metropolitan area and outer South East, for example. This is similar to the breakdown for total migration of all age groups. Between 1961 and 1966 almost one-third of the British population aged over 5 years changed its place of residence. This comprised 16.75 per cent who moved within the same local authority area; 12.30 per cent moving between local authority areas within the same region; and 2.17 per cent moving between regions. But there are also major retirement flows to more distant areas, reflecting the influence of regional differentials in a number of factors, of which cheaper housing and less industrialised environments have been generally cited as the most important. In addition, there are pairs of areas where larger flows might have been expected on the basis of a simple gravity relationship. Within Scotland, northern England and Wales, the flows were relatively small. This may have been due to several reasons. The requirements of retired persons might have been met by shorter moves within areas; there might be stronger family and social ties to the pre-retirement locality; and there might be a smaller proportion of middle- and upper-income persons within the retired population. The result is a wide range in the propensity to migrate from different parts of Britain. Some of the older industrial districts have outmigration ratios among their retired population as low as those found in the traditional areas of inmigration. At the same time some - particularly the outer metropolitan area, but also to a lesser extent the outer South East and central West Midlands (excluding the conurbation) - have a high 'turnover' of retired population, with migration both into and out of their areas. Direct comparisons are made impossible by the variations in the size of areas: large areas may have high internal migration rates, but few people crossing the boundaries into neighbouring areas, for example. However, among the conurbations, which are all of similar extent, the migration rate out of Greater London during 1961-1966 was equivalent to about 10 per cent of the retired population in 1961; the average for the other six conurbations was about 5 per cent. In three other

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non-conurbation industrial areas - south Wales, the remainder of the North West and the remainder of the West Midlands - it was less than 3.5 per cent. These variations are related to differences in average incomes, but it is also likely that propensity to migrate also reflects differences in social structure. For example, the cohesiveness of extended family networks may be stronger in non-metropolitan regions. The preceding discussion provides a description of the distribution of the retired population itself, but it does not relate this to trends in total population. This is an important omission, for the degree of segregation, or polarisation, among age groups in the population has important implications for policy and planning in respect of the retired population itself and of the areas in which they are located. The significance of recent trends in the retired population is emphasised when its expansion (over 16 per cent in 1961-1971) is compared with that of the active population, or that group aged between 15 and 65 (or 60 for women), which increased by only 1.5 per cent in the same decade. The distribution of changes in the latter (Figure 7) presents a relatively familiar picture, since it correlates with the broad pattern of economic disparities; in most cases the peripheral regions lost population in these age groups, while in parts of the Midlands and South East the active groups increased by over 20 per cent. But there is a major deviation from the pattern of disparities to be found in the position of the conurbations. Greater London lost over 10 per cent of its active population and the West Midlands and Manchester conurbations were only marginally better placed. In all of them the reason lay in patterns of migration; as with the retired population, all of them gave rise to large flows to their suburban peripheries and to surrounding towns. In consequence, when we look at the contribution of the change in the retired population to the total change of each area, we find marked differences (Figure 8). The major conurbations and remoter rural areas of Scotland, Wales and Northern England are alike in that whatever growth they achieved was entirely contained within the retired sector; their other age groups actually declined in numbers. For the remainder of the country, only two areas experienced faster growth in their active population than in the retired sector; both are in the outer metropolitan area of the South East. The contribution of the retired also tended to be below average along the axial belt through the midlands to the north west. The traditional retirement areas in the south west and on the southern and eastern coasts showed a low to moderate contribution, which reflects their relatively rapid economic growth, with the dispersal of light industry supporting the expansion of their active populations.

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256

(7{

Ό

Λ

1

2-5

5

7-5

10 000

Figure 6. Main migratory movements of the retired population in Britain, 1961-1966

Social disparities and regional policy

Figure 7. Changes in the distribution of the active population in Britain, 1961-1971

257

Figure 8. The contribution of retirement to total population change in Britain, 1961-1971

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259

3.3 Interpretation of regional variations Two sets of interpretations can be made of the preceding descriptions; one relating to static conditions and the other to the recent trends of the distribution of the retired population. The first is the more simple. The position in 1971 reflects the outcome of population changes over many decades and there remains a set of 'retirement areas'. However, unlike most economic variables, there is no marked difference between regions; indeed, the variations are equally great within regions. The South East, for example, contains the areas of highest and lowest proportions of retired people. In so far as differences did occur, they tended to be between the urban-industrial centres of each region and the remainder, but even here the variations were slight in most regions. With the exception of the retirement areas, the degree of polarity or segregation is relatively small. On the other hand, the trends between 1961 and 1971 give partial evidence (which can be supported by other variables) of growing polarisation; areas were becoming more dissimilar in their population structures. Moreover, this involved increasing segregation between retired people and their former family and social environments. It should be stressed that this is partly conjecture, since information on migration is incomplete both for earlier periods and on the conditions and consequences of movement. But it does seem likely that the rate of migration among retired persons has increased and that longer distances are being covered. Even so, the retired are less migratory than the active and there is strong evidence that the elderly (together with the poorer and less skilled) are forming large residual populations in the major conurbations. That is, the former social and family environments are also under pressure from the movement of the active. But the two major indications of change - the rate of increase in the retired group and their contribution to total population change - show a weak inverse relationship with each other. The first shows the main concentrations of growth to be in non-conurbation southern England while the latter is dominant in the peripheral regions and the conurbations, but there is a large area of overlap. However, both are important indicators of regional change. A rapid increase in retired population puts additional pressure on certain services, particularly health. A high contribution to total population change exerts a more general, but possibly greater strain upon the resources of the local authority. In areas where this has occurred there has generally been an outmigration of the middle

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and higher paid active population leaving a lower local tax base. Added to this, relatively lower disposable income has an impact on demand for consumer services. Therefore, both indicators have important policy and planning implications. But, apart from their poor correlation, there also arise problems associated with the existing regional economic policy implemented in Britain. The contribution to total change is high in areas already assisted by regional economic policy. But, more seriously, it is equally high in the areas which have been the main sources of industrial movement to the peripheral regions - namely, London and the other English conurbations. Permitting more industrial growth in these areas might be a partial solution to maintaining a more balanced age and social structure in these areas, but it would act against the requirements of the assisted areas. This is the main dilemma for the reconciliation of economic and social changes in Britain. The growing problem is the conflicting requirements of the conurbations and the peripheral areas. Of course, retirement is only one social indicator, but although it (and associated demographic variables) may not be well correlated with every other, it is among the most important. What has to be asked, therefore, is whether, at the interregional level, social indicators ought to replace economic indicators as a basis for regional policy, or augment them, or neither. If the latter course is taken and regional social indicators are largely ignored, then it has to be asked whether there is some other scale (i.e., intra-regional) at which social indicators form a basis for planning. Alternatively, they could continue to be treated on a sectoral, aspatial, basis with action unrelated to geographic distributions except in the most indirect sense. 3.4 Retirement in East Anglia

Many of the observations and conclusions from the preceding regional analysis are repeated at the sub-regional level. However, changing the scale to consider a more detailed distribution within a single region introduces a further dimension of regional planning which may have greater relevance to social needs. There is no 'typical' region whose analysis can provide conclusions directly applicable to others. Although some generalisations are possible, the earlier discussion showed substantial variations between regions and even larger differences between, for example, conurbations and their surrounding areas. Within the spectra of variations described in Figures

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261

4 to 8, East Anglia appears as a region with an above average proportion of retired persons, a very rapid increase in this proportion, but a low contribution by retirement to total population change. In these its greatest similarities are with the remainder of non-metropolitan southern England. The characteristics of East Anglia and its modern development are described elsewhere (Sant & Moseley, forthcoming). Briefly, this is a region which has undergone, since 1951, a sharp reversal of trends which has been interpreted in terms of a shift in a cumulative causation model (Sant, 1970). As the main agrarian region of Britain and lacking a substantial industrial base, East Anglia consistently lost population for a century, mainly through migration to London (Friedlander & Roshier, 1966). The reversal was largely initiated by the designation of Town Expansion Schemes to receive population dispersed from the capital, but there has also been rapid unplanned growth in employment and population outside these areas. Between 1961 and 1971 East Anglia achieved the fastest rates of expansion among the ten planning regions of Britain and, like other parts of southern England outside the South East, it appears to have undergone increasing 'metropolitanisation' (Spooner, 1972). At the same time there remain areas in the region which have received little economic impetus and are remote from the main centres of growth. The long period of slow change before the 1950s have left East Anglia with a settlement structure which corresponds quite well with the classical central place system (Figure 9). Three larger centres (Norwich, Ipswich and Cambridge) dominate their extensive hinterlands. A fourth, Peterborough, is functionally more specialised, having a large engineering base, but having been designated as a New Town with a planned population of 180,000 by 1985, it also is likely to have a greater regional role. Smaller towns act as sub-regional and local centres and there is a substantial rural population contained in over one thousand villages. Certain industries are relatively localised within the region, giving rise to functional specialisms besides those associated with the settlement hierarchy. Manufacturing industries form the economic bases of several towns (food processing in King's Lynn; mechanical engineering in Ipswich, for example); a number of coastal towns are recreation centres; Cambridge and Norwich have universities. All of the region is located within 125 miles (200 km) of London and it is with the South East that most of the region's interactions take place. Included in this is the origin of migrants of all age groups; almost

262

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263

two-thirds of those moving during 1965-1966 came from the South East. Excluding those in planned schemes, a large proportion of these especially in the older age groups - were motivated by cheaper housing: most other economic variables, including incomes, either have very small differences or show a disparity against East Anglia. The housing cost gradient, moving north and eastwards from London has been a relatively steep one, reflecting population densities and the pressure of demand. Although recent rapid growth has slightly flattened it, the gradient still remains. As we have discussed earlier, retirement is frequently associated with a change of residence and house-owners in the metropolitan area have enlarged their retirement incomes by selling there, migrating to East Anglia and purchasing a new house more cheaply. However, much of this migration, and that within the region, has been to parts of East Anglia which, as a result of outmigration of active population for many decades, already have a relatively old age distribution. The consequence is that the region now has a wide range of retirement rates (Figure 10) with extremes at 7 per cent and 38 per cent. There exist two general underlying dimensions to this distribution. The first is a spatial trend, northwards and eastwards away from the metropolitan axis of the south and midlands. The second comprises local factors such as industrial structure and recent growth, which have led to places deviating from the spatial trend. For example, migration into expanding towns is overwhelmingly by the active age groups and their children, giving these places the lowest proportions of retired persons in the region. The division between more and less urbanised regions, which occurs in Britain as a whole, is lost at the sub-regional level. Here every category of area (large centres, small towns and rural areas) has a wide dispersion of retirement rates. Moreover, it is not the case here that urban areas have proportions consistently lower than their suburban and rural peripheries. Instead, the pattern is a regional one, with clusters of places tending to have similar age structures. When this disparity is combined with other indicators, the basis for regional social planning becomes more clear. Areas with high rates of retirement also tend to have lower than average earnings, higher unemployment and declining or very slowly expanding populations, together with relatively low population densities. Now, the recent trends in the provision of public and private services has been towards greater concentration. The causes of this come from several directions. On the one hand there are increasing potential economies of scale in services, such as

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265

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Morgan Sant

schools, health centres, water supply and sewage, which raise their population thresholds. On the other hand, increasing private mobility, through car-ownership, tends to increase the range of travel for a substantial part of the population, permitting economies in private services. However, greater private mobility has an adverse effect on public transportation and there remain large residual population - the retired, housewives, children and those not owning private cars - who are placed at a disadvantage by such trends. For example, in north Norfolk, where they make up a substantial proportion, the retired population has an average car-ownership level fifty per cent below the local average. In an area where most services have undergone a process of contraction and concentration, this leads to problems of accessibility both for this group and for others with similar low levels of mobility (Clout, Hollis & Munton, 1973). For planners there is no simple solution; instead, four general approaches exist. One is through the long-term planning of settlement distributions, aiming for greater concentration, so that the higher population thresholds of public services are more easily attainable. The second is through subsidies to transport services, making the less mobile population more accessible to concentrated services and employment opportunities. Thirdly, it is possible to subsidise the dispersal of services on a periodic basis to more remote places; an analogy with periodic markets can be found here. Finally, there is a 'do-nothing' approach, accepting disparities in service provision but ensuring that would-be migrants to disadvantaged areas are fully aware of the variations in the quality and quantity of services. All of these approaches have been adopted by planners within the region. (However, it should be emphasised that no plan or policy coordinates all authorities; each county and district, under the new structure of local government, has autonomy over certain functions within its own area.) Thus, Norfolk has devised a settlement policy which encourages concentration; the smallest villages are generally designed as unsuitable for expansion. In additions, it subsidises bus routes - although these are often in replacement of closed railway passenger services - and dispersed periodic services.

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4 . CONCLUSIONS: SOCIAL CHANGE AND REGIONAL POLICY

4.1 Summary

The preceding sections consisted of a general discussion of the relationships between social indicators and regional development, and the presentation of an illustrative case study. The main points in each are listed below. 4.1.1 Discussion:

(i) The concepts of social change, economic development and spatial structure provided a multifaceted system of complex relationships. Causal chains are not always one-way; for example, social structures are able to condition, and be conditioned by, spatial structure. (ii) Social variables are imperfectly correlated with each other or with economic indicators at the regional level. Nevertheless, a loose system of relationships can be conceptualised (Figure 1), which can form the basis for planning within individual places. (iii) The availability and adequacy of social indicators is sub-optimal, especially at regional and sub-regional levels. While it might be wasteful to collect long series of data for every potentially usable variable, there is a danger of incorrect inferences being drawn from marginally relevant, short series of information. (iv) Past practices in regional policy and sub-regional planning have concentrated, respectively, on economic and physical (land use) factors. This has altered slightly through the institution of an intermediate planning process, namely regional strategic planning. (v) Social disparities exhibit different forms of regional distribution; some are homogeneous within regions, while others show hierarchical forms or spatial trends. While the same applies to economic indicators, it appears that these present a greater degree of regional homogeneity. (vi) In so far as social planning is carried out, it is conducted mainly at the levels of central government and local authorities. The regional dimension is not one that has been fully institutionalised, and it has very little power at present. (viii) With certain qualifications it is postulated that development in Britain has been associated with a widening of regional social disparities or increasing polarization.

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4.1.2 Case studies (i) The geographical distribution of retirement is used only to illustrate points made in the general discussion. It must be recognised that other social variables exhibit different distributions. (ii) The retired population forms an heterogeneous group, having the same dispersion of economic resources as the population as a whole, as well as a wide range of physical capabilities. These are reflected in their geographical distribution (Figure 4) which showed that by 1971 they accounted for widely differing proportions among British sub-regions. The causes lie in their own migration to environmentally attractive regions and the migration of active populations away from older industrial areas, leaving the poorer retired group as a part of the residual in such areas. (iii) Recent trends in the distribution of retired population are partially conflicting. There is a weak correlation between the rate of growth of retired populations (Figure 5) and their contribution to total growth (Figure 8). Each of these has different implications for the planning of resources. (iv) At the regional level the distribution of retirement - in all its aspects - correlates weakly with economic variables. There is an emerging conflict of interests between the needs of the conurbations and the requirements of the assisted areas (i.e., those suffering the greatest economic disparities). (v) At the sub-regional level - illustrated by the distribution of retirement within East Anglia - the planning of rural areas, which contain high proportions of the elderly as well as other economically and socially disadvantaged groups, has followed a number of courses. These include the long term settlement structure of such areas, the subsidising of transport services and the provision of mobile services on a periodic basis to supply more remote areas and immobile people. 4.2 Policy implications These assertions and observations raise questions for the formulation and implementation of policy. In this conclusion we consider three: the generality of regional policies, the evaluation of indicators, and the meaning of regional balance. The strengthening of regional institutions, through the devolution of power from central government, is not raised here. Although an important issue, which has received considerable attention elsewhere (Cmnd 5460, 1973; Donnison, 1974; Gaskin, 1974), regionalism is not an essential condition for social or economic development.

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The generality of policies, or the transmission of the impact of a policy on one issue to other issues, is receiving increasing attention, as it has been recognised that individual policies are not neutral in their side-effects. This is particularly the case with regional economic policy. In the last three decades, British policy - to correct economic disparities, particularly in unemployment - has been followed vigorously by the movement of over half a million jobs in manufacturing industry to the assisted areas from the more prosperous regions (Sant, 1975). The disparities have not been significantly closed, but at least they have not widened; the process has been described as a holding operation. However, the side-effects have also been important. One set is beneficial: it has been argued that national economic growth has been enhanced (Moore & Rhodes, 1974) and that migration has been reduced. But another set is more equivocal. The major conurbations have been the sources for dispersal of population and jobs to their suburbs and surrounding towns (including the planned New Towns). To this has been added their role as providers of jobs to the assisted areas. The result has been to exacerbate their problems. At least one writer (West, 1973) has questioned whether regional policy does much to benefit the unemployed and low income groups in the assisted areas: it certainly does not benefit the same groups outside the assisted areas. This is not a problem with an easy solution. Regional economic policy is sufficiently entrenched and institutionalised not to be substituted by another approach. Moreover, although regional social issues can be identified, they still need to be evaluated. Proving the existence, and analysing the form and relationships, of regional social disparities is only a first step in the policy formation process. As discussed earlier (Table 2), there is a sequence of stages between this and the implementation of policies. It is possible for a large number of courses to be taken: for example, a regional disparity may be regarded as acceptable; or it may cause concern, but be regarded politically unfeasible to correct; or, while still causing concern, it may be regarded as more expediently treated at either central or local level. These are only three possibilities, but they serve to show that regional social issues cannot automatically be translated into regional social policy. Ultimately, interest at the regional scale lies in the question of social balance and its antithesis, polarisation. Its definition has been discussed above, but while it is a relatively simple matter to calculate statistically the degree of polarisation occurring over a given period, it is far more difficult to say what constitutes a desirable balance. Clearly, it is not that

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all places should be identical in their social composition: such a situation only pertains in hypothetical models of subsistence societies. Modern economic systems, based on specialisation, make some degree of social differentiation inevitable. However, there is a more practicable concept of 'balance' which Donnison (1974) has put forward. This is to ensure that 'in each activity, more rewarding opportunities are within easy reach, financially, spatially and culturally' (p. 191). Donnison represents each activity (e.g., education, employment, housing, etc.) as a ladder. He argues that the objective of planning should be to ensure access to a full set of scalable ladders: in effect, that there should not be discontinuities where the rungs of a ladder are missing or lead nowhere, nor disjunctions where neighbouring ladders are not available to provide mutually supporting opportunities. He asserts that 'the poorer regions (in Britain) appear to have more than their share of these discontinuities and disjunctions. Some are the result of long term changes in the pace and direction of their economic and social development. Some have been exacerbated by clumsy public intervention in the region's affairs' (p. 192). Examples - the housing market in Scotland and the education/employment discontinuity in Wales - are not difficult to find. But although this is a realistic view of social balance, it is, nonetheless, beyond the present capacity of most countries, including Britain, to make systematic progress towards its attainment. Partly this is the result of insufficient knowledge of the regional dimensions of social change, which leads to uncertainty in the formation of policy. But it is also partly due to preoccupation with economic conditions. Eventually, this situation may change, but until it does the question of social balance and development will remain the least satisfactorily treated part of regional policy.

REFERENCES

Bell, C., & Newby, H. (1971) Community studies. London, Allen & Unwin. Biderman, A. D. (1966) Social indicators and goals. In R. A. Bauer (Ed.), Social indicators. Cambridge, Mass., M.I.T. Press. Central Statistical Office (1973) The general household survey: Introductory report. London, HMSO. Cheshire, A. (1970) Statistics for planning: The census of population. University of Reading, Urban Systems Research Unit. Mimeo. Clout, H. D., Hollis, G. E., & Munton, R. J. C. A study of public transport in North Norfolk. London, University College, Occasional Papers No. 18. Cmnd 3998 (1969) The intermediate areas. London, HMSO. Cmnd 5460 (1973 Royal commission on the constitution, 1969-1973. London, HMSO.

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Donnison, D. V. (1974) Regional policies and regional government. In Μ. E. C. Sant (Ed.), Regional policy and planning for Europe. Farnborough, Saxon House. & Eversley, D. E. C. (Eds.) (1973) London: Urban patterns, problems and policies. London, Heinemann. Eversley, D. E. C. (1965) Social and psychological factors in the determination of industrial location. In T. Wilson (Ed.), Papers on regional development. Oxford, Blackwell. Friedlander, D., & Roshier, R. J. (1966) Internal migration in England and Wales; Part I. Geographical patterns of internal migration, 1851-1951, Population Studies, 19: 239-279. Gaskin, M. (1974) Centre and region in regional policy. In M. E. C. Sant (Ed.), Regional policy and planning for Europe. Farnborough, Saxon House. Golant, S. M. (1972) The residential location and spatial behaviour of the elderly: A Canadian example. University of Chicago, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 143. Hammond, E. (1968) An analysis of regional economic and social statistics. University of Durham. Harris, M. (1973) Some aspects of social polarisation. In D. V. Donnison & D. E. C. Eversley (Eds.), London: Urban patterns, problems and policies. London, Heinemann. Herbert, D. T. (1972) Urban geography: A social perspective. Newton Abbot, David & Charles. Lomas, G. M. (1971) Social planning at a metropolitan scale. London, Regional Studies Association, Discussion Paper No. 1. Mimeo. (1973) Labour and life in London. In D. V. Donnison & D. E. C. Eversley (Eds.), London: Urban patterns, problems and policies. London, Heinemann. Moore, B. & Rhodes, J. (1974) The effects of regional economic policy in the United Kingdom. In M.E.C. Sant (Ed.), Regional policy and planning for Europe. Farnborough, Saxon House. Myrdal, G. (1957) Economic theory and underdeveloped regions. London, Duckworth. North West Joint Planning Team (1974) The strategic plan for the North West. London, HMSO. Olsson, G. (1965) Distance and human interaction, a review apdbibliography. Philadelphia, Regional Science Research Institute. Pähl, R. E. (1967) Sociological models in geography. In R. J. Chorley & P. Haggett (Eds.), Models in geography. London, Methuen. (1971) Poverty and the urban system. In M. Chisholm & G. Manners (Eds.), Spatial policy problems of the British economy. Cambridge, University Press. Powell, A. J. (1974) Regional policy and sub-regional planning in the North West. In Μ. E. C. Sant (Ed.), Regional policy and planning for Europe. Farnborough, Saxon House. Sant, Μ. E. C. (1970) Age and area in industrial location, Regional Studies, 4: 349-358. (1975) Industrial movement and regional development: The British case. Oxford, Pergamon. & Moseley, M. J. (forthcoming) East Anglia. Newton Abbott, David & Charles. Shamas, E., Townsend, P., Wedderburn, D., Friis, H., Milh0j, P., & Stehouwer, J. (1968) Old people in three industrial societies. London, Routledge & Kegan Paul. Spooner, D. (1972) Industrial movement and the rural periphery, Regional Studies, 6: 197-215. Utria, R. D. (1971) Social variables in regional development. United National Research Institute for Social Development. Mimeo.

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Welch, R. L. (1971) Migration research and migration in Britain. Birmingham, Centre for Urban and Regional Studies. West, E. G. (1973) 'Pure' versus 'operational' economics in regional policy. In G. Hallett, P. Randall & E. G. West, Regional policy for ever? London, Institute of Economic Affairs. Westaway, J. (1974) Contact potential and the occupation structure of the British urban system, 1961-1966: An empirical study, Regional Studies, 8: 57-73.

LEO Η. KLAASSEN

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Urban planning and its impact on the quality of urban life in West European cities

1.

INTRODUCTION

The subject of this Conference is the quality of life in European cities, and it is my task to elaborate on the role of urban planning in those cities. The authors presenting papers at this Conference will deal with the question what makes a city a European city or at least on which common feature of European cities a paper could be focussed. The only common feature, at least at first sight, is that European cities are cities located within the European territory. And this is about as meaningful as defining a human being as a living thing that is neither a plant nor an animal. Venice and Glasgow, Estoril and Moscow, Dubrovnik and Hammerfest are all European cities, but they have as little in common as Bangkok and Scranton, Pennsylvania. Still, there is a common feature that could serve as a background for our considerations. Let us describe the European cities as cities that are located on a continent that in the economic as well as the historical sense takes a place between the United States, with its high income level and relatively short history on the one hand, and the rest of the world, with its low income level and ancient cultures that still are manifest in many places but with remnants gradually becoming more or less foreign elements in the societies that have developed. Europe has not reached the U.S. income level and cannot boast of a culture older than the Greek. But it has, maybe for this very reason, remained conscious of that culture that expresses itself in a multitude of ways in its society in general and its urban life in particular. Perhaps this explains why social elements in European societies play a role that seems more pronounced than in the two other societies. In the United States, as well as in the Third World,

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economic considerations seem to be weighted higher than in Europe where culture is old enough to place social objectives high on the list of objectives and income is high enough to allow governments to pursue these objectives more or less successfully. Although we should be careful not to generalize too easily the view expressed above might serve as a vague background for considering the European city and its developments. 2.

SOME GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

I do not consider it my task to go very deeply into the historical developments that made urban life in Europe what it is today. But it might be useful to elaborate somewhat on developments that explain some of its main characteristics when comparing it with that in a country like the United States. One of the principal and very essential points is, of course, that Europe consists today and always has consisted of a large number of independent nations with their own policies, languages, religions and cultural backgrounds that are reflected in urban life. The frontiers between those nations were not fixed but have changed considerably over time as a consequence of wars, unification of smaller nations into larger ones as well as division of larger nations into smaller ones. Over the last centuries the map of Europe has changed continuously and the effects of this on urban life and the distribution of urban activities have been considerable. A few examples might elucidate this point. When comparing the spatial distribution of cities over France with that of Germany, it immediately becomes obvious that the very high degree of centralization of the French governmental system resulted in a heavy concentration of activities in Paris as compared to other cities in France. In Germany, on the contrary, the present nation developed out of the unification of a number of independent states with their own governments and their own capital. This original position reflects itself clearly in the present equal size distribution of cities over the country where not one city is nearly as large as Paris. To a certain extent London and Vienna underwent the reverse development. Both were capitals of large (resp. larger) empires which gradually broke down leaving hardly anything but the national territory. Vienna, the capital of a country some three hundred miles long, is now situated at the extreme edge of that country, 20 miles from the Czechoslovakian border!

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Recent developments have again altered the picture of European urban life. The wartime destruction of cities in Germany and German-occupied territories in a large number of cases considerably influenced the quality as well as the structure of life in those cities. Coventry, Belgrade, Rotterdam and Warsaw are just four examples outside Germany where almost complete renewal resulted in structures quite different from those before the War. The war influenced urban life in two other ways as well. The first, the division of Europe into capitalist and socialist countries, is most evident in the countries on which borders the two systems meet. West German urban development has concentrated most heavily in the cities of its Western and Southern regions. Large areas in the East need special financial support to maintain an acceptable standard of living. The almost absolute border pressed economic activities westward, where the main Western developments took place and, consequently, urban growth manifested itself most clearly. A second development that is to a certain extent linked with the former is the building of economic blocks in Europe. The Common Market and the European Free Trade Area in the West and the Comecon in the East are developing and beginning to influence urban life in Europe. The most important effect is the gradual disappearance of customs barriers between countries. The map of Europe still shows clearly the influence of the frontiers on the degree of economic development of frontier regions. Except for areas endowed with raw materials, border regions show only limited economic activities, partly for understandable economic reasons, but partly due to the awareness that border areas are where frontiers are most likely to change, giving entrepreneurs a feeling of uncertainty about the risks to his firm if such a change would occur. Devoted members of the European Movement believe that abolition of economic barriers will result in a rapid unification of Europe. Apart from the question of whether a completely unified Europe is preferable to a 'Europe of Nations' in which each individual country preserves its most precious characteristics, this opinion may be somewhat Utopian. European countries are separated not only by custom barriers but even more so by differences in languages, religion, history, educational systems, political structures, etc. which do not disappear with the removal of import restrictions. A recent study makes this point clear (Klaassen & Wagenaar, forthcoming). On the basis of data on the number of telephone calls between districts in Belgium, the authors measured the influence of telephone

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density,, distance between the regions as well as the language difference on the intensity of communication by telephone between those districts. It appeared that language differences had a considerable influence. This influence was expressed as a multiplicative factor of actual physical distance. The result was that the density of communication by telephone between two districts where different languages were spoken was equal to the density of communication between two districts speaking the same language but located at a distance 2.6 times as large. The same level of communication as between two districts speaking the same language will thus be found between two districts speaking different languages only if the distance between those two regions is 60 per cent smaller. The research into the phenomena of psychological distance is being pursued at the Netherlands Economic Institute (Klaassen & Wagenaar, 1972). Application at a much more general level starting from more general hypotheses might allow us also to get more insight into communication within cities between different social groups. Finally, there is undoubtedly a general tendency towards a European integration on a higher macro level between EEC, EFTA and Comecon. This is, however, more an outlook on longer term, at least as far as the Comecon is concerned. The only important point is that cultural and scientific communication is rapidly increasing and even more open relations may be expected to establish themselves in the near future. The foregoing shows that a European urban or regional policy does not exist. To a certain extent there exists an EEC regional policy focussing on measures to promote the growth of depressed regions in the EEC countries. A large part of the funds made available for this programme are allocated to the development of the Mezzogiorno in Italy.1 After the entrance of the United Kingdom, considerable attention is also paid to Scotland and Wales. 3. CONSIDERATIONS CONCERNING THE QUALITY OF LIFE

In order to find well defined regional and/or urban policies we will have to descend to the national level. Before doing so, however, it seems useful to consider in some detail a definition of the quality of life. Let us suggest a terminology that will be used throughout this paper and that seems to 1. This region shows that considerable differences in income level might persist between regions even if there were no custom barriers or differences in language or religion.

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be efficient for the subject at hand. By efficiency, I mean concepts that have operational value and can be applied in practical research. Undoubtedly, there is ample room for other definitions, especially those that are far more general. First let us assume that the quality of life has four dimensions. These are social, economic, environmental and cultural. Consequently, the quality of life is determined by: (a) The presence of social institutions, the social context of the individual including the density of his relations with other groups as well as the framework of social legislation within which he lives. (b) The income level of the individual, the quality of his work, his job opportunities (implicitly including the degree of freedom to move from one region to another and from one job to another). (c) The quality of the environment, including the degree of pollution of air and water, congestion, and noise, as well as the availability of recreational facilities. (d) The presence of cultural institutions as well as the general cultural level of the community in which the individual lives. The quality of life of the individual is not necessarily determined in a unique and positive way by all these factors. Given the level and structure of the demands of the individual, the actual supply might be above as well as below his aspirations. In both cases the quality of his life might be lower than in case supply would just satisfy his demands. This means that the level of satisfaction in the community is maximal if the structure of the supply is such that it enables each individual to satisfy his demand at the level which corresponds to his ambitions. This will be the case if all amenities are available at each level. Apart from the ubiquitous components of the quality of urban life, the social legislation, the political climate of the country, and its cultural and economic level, the quality of life of the individual with a given position living in a given place is largely determined by the distances of the different elements from his living and working place. This means that the quality of his life is not determined by the presence in his country of certain recreational elements, schools or hospitals but rather more by the distance to be covered to reach these elements. If they are readily accessible from his living place, he may satisfy his life quality demands easily. On the contrary, if he has to cover large distances to reach them, he not only will have to pay a high price for transportation and effort, but also will require much time to consume the services. This last point means that, given the limited time daily available,

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he will restrict his potential consumption. If this means that he cannot satisfy his demand, the quality of his life will be lower than if all or most of the services are readily accessible. These considerations imply that it is not justified to speak of the quality of life if we do not define simultaneously the spatial context considered. For this reason we will consider separately the quality of life in a regional context, in an urban context, and in the narrowest context of all, the neighbourhood of the city in which the individual lives. Evidently, such a separate treatment of the different levels of the quality of life implies considering policies at different administrative levels. Let us formalize this point in the following way: (a) Denote an amenity with a high distance elasticity of demand as an amenity of low order and one with a low distance elasticity as one of high order. By this definition, a university is a high order amenity and a kindergarten a low order amenity. In general, the number of low order amenities is high. The number of higher order amenities decreases with the order of the amenity. (b) Denote further an authority of high level as an authority covering a large territory and consequently, an authority of low level as an authority covering a small territory. A national government is a government of high order, a county or municipal government is one of low order. We then may make the following assumptions: (a) A decision considering a given element, or amenity, will have to be taken at the lowest possible level in such a sense that the order of the government by which the decision is made is no lower than the order of the element concerned. (b) If the differences in order between the government making the decision and the order of the element itself is large, the part of the population immediately concerned should have a large say in that decision. This means that the population of a neighbourhood in a large city should be enabled to exert a considerable influence on decisions of that order which corresponds to the size of their neighbourhood. Both points imply that at least on these grounds the number of governmental levels should be relatively large. Their number will have to be limited considerably, however, for reasons of coordination. The size of the coordination problem increases more than proportionally with the number of governmental levels. In practice, the number of levels is historically determined but current discussions in Holland show that a

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major change in the governmental structure is possible and may even be highly desirable. In a dynamic, changing society also the governmental system should adjust itself regularly to social developments in order to reach a better correspondence between the order of decisions and the order of governmental bodies. The foregoing means that the quality of life of the individual is influenced by governmental decisions at different levels. In order to discuss these influences properly, we should consider them separately in the proper context.

4.

REGIONAL POLICIES

The first level to be discussed is the national level at which the decisions for a regional policy are taken. The main objective of regional policy is to obtain a better spatial equilibrium between population and economic activities in the country. In most countries this distribution is characterized by a high concentration of both population and economic activities in a relatively few cities. This means that most countries are faced with all the problems connected with a high degree of urbanization as well as with an unequal distribution of income between the urbanized and the non-urbanized parts of the country. Recent developments have shown that this problem is aggravated by the unfavourable development of a number of stagnating sectors such as textiles, mining, ship-building, and even iron and steel production. Longrun developments in the competitive position of those sectors have brought distress to a number of formerly flourishing cities and regions. By this a new dimension has been added to our regional problems. Classifying the regions according to two economic criteria, level of income and potential growth of income, one might arrive at the following table: Table 1. Classification of regions according to economic criteria Income growth compared to average national growth High Income level compared to average national income level

Low

High 1. Prosperous areas

3. Potential distressed areas

Low

4. Distressed areas

2. Potential prosperity areas

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To each of the groups a different sort of regional policy should apply. The first group, economically prosperous because high income level as well as high income growth characterize the larger cities with a favourable economic structure. The nature of problems of regions in this group is social and environmental (air and noise pollution and traffic congestion) rather than economic. Although their typical urban structural problems will be considered later it should be mentioned here that decentralization as a result of motorization is also one of their main problems. In Europe, it is common practice to limit further growth of urban areas of this type by imposing restrictions on the locations of new activities (London and Paris) or by levying special taxes on capital investments (as are currently contemplated in Stockholm and the Dutch Rimcity). Although the policies in London and Paris have met with a certain degree of success as far as the number of new locations or extensions of existing firms is concerned, there is some doubt about the influence of such measures on the degree to which new, valuable initiations of more than local importance have been suppressed. For both cities there is awareness of the fact that large urban areas serve as breeding places for innovations that spread from the cities to the rest of the country. The consequences of policies which suppress urban growth, and with it innovations, should be considered generally with care, and particularly if they have long-rung consequences. Promoting growth elsewhere might be a much more effective policy than suppressing it in the prosperity regions. Group 2 contains the potential prosperity areas with income levels below and growth rates above the national average. From a purely economic point of view those regions are worth investing in, but no policy in Europe is directed toward promoting the growth of this type of area. The reason for this is clearly that regional policies are in fact more social than economic. Still, long experience with regional policies in Europe makes it clear that promotion of the growth of those regions or cities might be preferred very much over the existing policies of promoting the growth of areas in distress. Distressed areas could be aided more effectively by assisting the growth of the potential prosperity areas (and thus assisting indirectly the distressed areas) than by jumping directly from the prosperity regions to the regions in distress. In France, regional policy is directed at promoting the growth of the so-called 'metropoles d'equilibre', larger cities in France which show the most favourable potentials for growth, at least compared to the distressed regions. In Holland, it is

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obvious that the cities peripheral to the Rimcity at a distance of some 50-70 miles show the highest growth potentials although their growth has never been supported by public development measures. There is, however, the possibility that their growth will be promoted by the government as part of future regional policy. In fact the new towns in the U.K. are based on the same principle, i.e., that communities with the highest growth potentials are located at a reasonable distance from the main urban centres. If this proves to be true, and it seems that there is some evidence now available, this would mean that a decentralization policy is effective in reaching its objectives of both gradually decreasing the growth of the main urban centres and promoting the growth of distressed peripheral areas. If the policy is to be successful, it should be carried out in two stages, viz.: Stage I: Promotion of potential growth centres at acceptable distances from the main urban areas. Stage II: Promotion, after having successfully completed Stage I, of new growth centres at acceptable distances from the first ones. A regional policy of this nature would do justice to natural tendencies and simultaneously reach the policy objectives even more rapidly than by direct promotion of distressed regions in distress particularly when evidence on programmes of this nature shows only limited success. Group 3 consists of potentially distressed regions. The group is characterized particularly by the older textile centres, mining towns and other single industry mono-structured cities. They are characterized as well by obsolete housing stocks, unattractive centres, a mixing of industries and residential neighbourhoods as well as lop-sided economic and social structures. The policy called for is one of economic restructuring, eventually supplemented with a policy of subsidized outmigration if stagnation of the economy fails to provide sufficient job opportunities for the labour force. Typical regions of this type in Europe are the Ruhr area, the textile areas all over the Western part of the continent, the Borinage in Belgium, the Sarre, and the Newcastle-Sunderland area of the U.K. Perhaps the social problems in these cities are even greater than the economic. The cities are environmentally unattractive and the labour and firms who can afford it financially are inclined to leave. This is particularly evident in the Ruhr area where the pace of outmigration of German workers exceeds that of the decline in the traditional sectors to such an extent that large numbers of foreign workers, principally from the

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mediterranean countries have to be 'imported' to do the work the Germans themselves have abandoned, in an environment the Germans have left behind. These cases demonstrate the usefulness of social indicators that could show the influence of such developments on the quality of life in these areas both for domestic and foreign workers. Government policies have not taken these developments into account nor have governments kept informed of the interaction between economic and social developments in these areas. Without strong and effective government intervention, these cities and regions will soon belong to Group 4, the distressed areas. Even more than for the Group 3 areas, the distressed areas need a powerful policy providing for complete economic restructuring, migration, and retraining. For agricultural areas this combination of policies and programmes has been rather successful but to-date the degree of success in urban areas has been very modest. To make these policies more effective we may again point at the phasing principle of regional policy mentioned earlier. The areas in greatest distress are frequently a nation's peripheral areas. A gradual relocation of activities from the main urban centres outwards eventually will reach the periphery of the country. This will take time but apparently less time than would be the case if present policies are maintained. Regional policies differ from country to country and are changing within countries in Europe. Germany has no formal migration policy, Sweden heavily subsidizes migration to its main urban centres of Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö. The U.K., France, and Holland subsidize some movements to development centres (growth poles) in distressed areas but not to the prosperous urban areas. Most countries base their policy on the 'growth pole' principle, promoting growth in a relatively small number of cities and towns rather than dispersing it over developing areas as in the U.K. model. Most countries adopting the growth pole principle, have subsequently yielded to a designated too many growth points. Holland counts 50 growth poles and the Federal Republic of Germany over 300! The overall picture is as interesting as it is confusing. For the student of regional economics and regional policy, Europe is a laboratory where nearly all possible experiments have become reality. A severe difficulty of making an effective use of the laboratory is the fact, however, that a regional policy is basically a long-run policy. In practice, policies change rather frequently leaving the student to determine which part of what

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actually happened should be attributed to the old policy (or no policy), which part to the new, and which part to autonomous developments. So far attempts to measure the effectiveness of regional policies in Europe are limited to very few countries and periods (a good example is Vanhove, 1961). An overall evaluation of the policies after World War II could not only inform us systematically about the evolution of the thinking on these matters but teach us a great deal about the degree to which different policies have contributed to national objectives.

5.

URBAN POLICIES

The second level for consideration is the urban level. Since urban policy is defined as the use of the set of instruments that influence the development of urban areas, it is mainly a policy of local authorities. Consequently, the variety of forms of urban policy found in Europe is even larger than is the case of regional policies. Yet, there is one common feature that narrows down the range of major problems and thus policies in urban areas, i.e., motorization and its impact on urban development. Traffic problems, as well as pollution, congestion and urban sprawl, are among the most discussed topics at conferences all over Western Europe. They are also entering into the discussions in Eastern Europe where motorization is beginning to have its impact on urban development. The structure of the problem is well known and can be summarized in a few lines: (a) Most cities are mononuclear in structure with the central business district (CBD) representing the main attraction centre as both a working and shopping place. (b) Motorization enables people formerly living in the urban core to move out to more pleasant places which combine the nearness of urban amenities with the advantages of a house in 'the green'. (c) The increased traffic flows resulting from these moves endanger the chances of survival of the CBD and induce activities to decentralization to places on the outskirts of the city. (d) Space in the CBD becoming available by this process is rapidly occupied by offices and banks, worsening again traffic problems. (e) As a result of this process, the quality of life in the urban cores deteriorates rapidly, stimulating further downward trends. (f) The principal solution proposed by local government is improvement

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of public transport and restriction of private-car traffic in certain areas of the CBD. Although these developments are certainly not the only ones influencing the quality of urban life, their importance is vital and justifies a broader treatment. When considering these problems, we will do well to focus attention much more on the traffic problem as a whole than only on the problem of auto traffic. The solution to be found is not how to divert people from automobiles to public transport but how to influence the behaviour of people such that the result is optimal both for the individual and for the urban society as a whole. Broadly speaking, measures to be taken, and partly are already taken, should be considered for their effect on: 1. the volume of traffic; 2. the spatial structure of traffic; 3. the temporal structure of traffic. In discussing the measures in more detail, it will be assumed that they will not adversely affect the quality nor the volume of communication in a broader sense. The very large number of measures taken 2 forces a categorization into three large groups, namely, measures influencing the demand for traffic, those influencing the supply of infrastructure and public means of transportation, and those influencing the modal split. Concerning the measures influencing the demand for traffic, it is useful to distinguish between two sub-categories, decentralization policies and measures of timing. The idea behind decentralization policy is that the heavy concentration of employment in the CBDs forces large numbers of people to commute to this district during the morning hours, using only half the infrastructure and moving out of the centre after work using the other half. This implies not only an extremely inefficient use of existing infrastructure over time but also spatially, causing heavy congestion in one direction and during a few hours and the need to provide large capacity public transport during the same limited number of hours in the same direction. The phenomenon that causes congestion of private traffic is the same that leads to heavy deficits for the public means of transportation. Obviously, measures promoting the evolution of the mono2. See, among others, the papers presented at the meeting of the I.G. Metall (1972). Contributions on traffic problems came from Beesley, London (1972); Busch, Munich (1972); Rittel, Berkeley (1972); Schuck, Cambridge, Mass. (1972); Klaassen, Rotterdam (1972).

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nuclear structures of our cities into multinuclear structures, simultaneously strengthening the residential function of the inner urban core, could not only influence favourably the volume of traffic as a whole but also its spatial and temporal structure. A simple example illustrates this point. The inner city of Rotterdam, which was completely rebuilt after World War II, is, though limited in size, rather varied in structure. Moreover, its importance as a residential area has the advantage that people living in the centre, where attractive apartments are available, either work in the centre or work outside. In either case the influence of their location is favourable. If they work in the centre the volume of traffic they generate for the journey to work as well as for other motives (shopping, concerts, theatre, etc.) is considerably smaller than would be the case if they all lived outside the centre. In the second case, those who work outside the centre use off-peak capacity of public transportation. Any policy that works in the other direction and unfortunately there are many such policies in Europe, notably in Germany, Holland and France - aggravates the traffic problem and in so doing, worsens the quality of urban life. Basically, the policy proposed is similar to that followed in the regional context. Also, there, the aim is improvement of the quality of life through a more equal distribution of population and activities, be it on a regional basis. In the proposed urban policy, this is translated to the urban scale. Obviously, a large number of problems are posed in the implementation of this policy. The first problem is how to make the centre of our cities attractive places to live in. Recent trends in Europe have shown that young people in particular appreciate living in town centres and do so the more intimate the atmosphere in the centre is. Old towns like Cologne, Munich and Amsterdam offer splendid opportunities for living in historical places in the middle of everything that a city of some size and character has to offer. By living there they themselves contribute to the atmosphere of the city. By demanding amenities available in the urban core, they stimulate the typical centre activities, they make the city more attractive by their mere presence after working hours and, above all, they prevent the city from being 'bought' by bankers and insurance companies who would build enormous so-called representative offices in the city centre and turn the area into a dead and unpleasant place during most of the day. Frankfurt is a unique example of the quick death of a beautiful centre as a result of this very process and Paris is going rapidly in the same direction (see also ΝRC-Handelsblad, 1972).

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The very fact that actual developments are going in this unhappy direction reflects the public indifference to the lack of governing power matter of urban land-use allocation. Many European countries have precise rules concerning land zoning in new areas. Manufacturing firms are strictly forbidden in residential areas, and residential construction is not permitted in recreational areas, etc. But there is no law that enables city councils to forbid a large bank from occupying the most valuable land in the city core. Clearly, much study will have to be completed before we can propose an optimal land-use system in the whole of our urban areas but local authorities should at least have the power to halt developments under way in order to have time to think through questions about basic spatial structures. If this time is properly used, it should result in proper zoning ordinances for the inner cores of the cities. These should enable the authorities to redirect activities with very low visitor/workers ratios to places with high accessibility (activities which no longer belong in city centres), thus considerably decreasing the demand for land in the urban centres. This autonomous decrease in demand will favourably affect land prices and make the centres more attractive for residential purposes as well as for activities with high visitor/workers ratios such as theatres, shops, cafes and restaurants, and all the small but extremely important activities that make a city centre an attractive place: a place for people rather than for prestige buildings. As the situation is now, even shopping activities are leaving the cities. A recent article in The Economist (1972, p. 60) includes the following map which shows the growth of 'hypermarkets' in Europe, and particularly in Germany and Belgium. The fear is great that these developments,which are mainly induced by motorization, will seriously affect the shopping facilities in existing towns and cities. The article states for Great Britain: 'Pressure from retailers for out-of-town planning permission is bound to mount. But will Britain be overrun with hypermarkets a decade or two from now? Wheatsheaf/Carrefour forecasts 37 hypermarkets in Britain by 1973, turning over 200 million a year - still a minute proportion of what is estimated will be a total retail turnover of £15 billion. More pessimistic forecasters say that Britain cannot comfortably support more than 20 hypermarkets without serious damage to existing shopping facilities. 'This would be fewer than a country as small as Belgium has now, but, if it should be true, then planning decisions should not be left to individual local authorities to take according to their own priorities. The government would do well to follow the industry's little Neddy's suggestion for a

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strategic plan drawn up on a regional basis; but there is nothing to suggest that the Department of the Environment is thinking that way' {The Economist, 1972, p. 61). We find here a typical example of decisions of an order higher than the order made by the (local) governments. Municipalities or countries around the urban areas might make decisions that heavily influence the urban cores without even contemplating the effects of such decisions on the quality of life in the region as a whole. What is lacking in Europe generally is basic thinking about future structures of towns and cities. Present thinking is anti-car and pro-public transport. In the meantime, developments are taking place rapidly in a direction that nobody really considers desirable. A proper setting of objectives might change this rigid thinking and replace it by the study of instruments to be used to reach the objectives. Only this could save European cities from becoming characterless suburban rings around city centres consisting of dead office buildings. A second group of measures that influence the level of demand for traffic facilities concerns measures of timing. There are three possibilities: (a) flexible working hours; (b) staggered opening and closing times of offices and shops; (c) shift work. Obviously working in shifts might have serious social drawbacks that can hardly be compensated by higher wages. Therefore, it seems appropriate to concentrate more on (a) and (b). Flexible working hours in shops and offices do not decrease the overall volume of traffic. They do however decrease considerably the size of the peak and thus the temporal structure of traffic. Flexible working hours are now rapidly being introduced, especially in Germany and gradually in the Netherlands. By enabling the worker, within certain limits, to adjust his working hours to his personal preferences he contributes not only to the solution of the traffic problem but also to the satisfaction he finds in his work. Flexible opening and closing times for shops have the same effect for the workers in shops but simultaneously improve the 'temporal accessibility' of the shop for workers in all branches. In Europe, shops still close at about the same hours as offices providing their customers with little or no time to do their shopping other than on Saturday (in Germany and Austria until noon only). The measures on the supply side of the traffic market may be divided in four groups, viz.:

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(a) increasing the efficiency of existing means of transportation; (b) introducing new means of transportation; (c) integrating transportation systems; (d) more efficient utilization of the private car by increasing the number of riders per car (car-pooling). Although new and revolutionary systems of transportation could contribute to the preservation of present city structures, their environmental impact may be considerable. This holds even for extensions of conventional railway systems in urban areas. Particularly in cities where underground railway systems cannot be built without destroying construction above the ground, a rigorous extension of such a system could ruin the character of the city just as effectively as could a freeway through the city. Still, particularly in new cities, or cities where large-scale urban renewal is programmed, new technologies might be introduced profitably. Their number is, however, at least in Europe, rather limited. The final type of measure concerns the modal split. Here we have two groups: first those directed at influencing the relative advantages and disadvantages of using private vs. public means of transportation through a policy of pricing and quality improvement (comfort), second, those which impose quantitative restrictions on private transportation in city centres. The first group comprises: (a) a system of differentiated road pricing (Beesley); (b) subsidies for public transport including subsidies to the transport companies for improving the quality of their services; (c) the introduction of parking fees. It seems correct to assume, as has Professor Beesley (1972), that the simultaneous use of all instruments could prove to be the most effective. The importance of a zero-price for public transportation should not be overestimated. First, the total volume of traffic increases. Second, the price of public transportation, at least in relation to the value attached by the user of a private car to the difference in time and comfort, is so high that a decrease of the fare even to zero would hardly influence his decision. Experience in Rome, where a zero-price experiment was recently conducted, indicates that a zero price considerably influences the volume of public transport riders but hardly affects the number of cars on roads. For this reason, the scheme of road pricing introduced by British transport economists where the road user is charged for the marginal congestion costs on the road he uses seems to be much more sensible. This pricing

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policy decreases the volume of traffic and charges the car user with the true costs of his use of the road. The second group of measures concerned with modal split comprises the quantitative restrictions. These involve: (a) limited access to centres for private cars; (b) parking restrictions. The limited accessibility of the centre to private cars should be implemented in such a way that it does not impose upon those who live in the centre nor upon those with whom these persons have social contacts. Severely limiting accessibility should not make the city centre less attractive as a place to live or the policy will conflict with an objective of higher order, i.e., the desired structure of the city centre. It cannot be denied that urban and regional measures are often taken without proper study of the way the measures should be taken and even less of the consequences to be expected. It still is not generally recognized, for instance, that long-parking restrictions in the city centres in the short run increases the peak in public transport but decreases the use of the car during the off-peak hours. These measures thus unfavourably influence the deficits of the public transport system by increasing the peak and decreasing the volume of traffic in the οίΓ-peak hours. It is not that measures of this kind should not be taken, but rather that authorities should be aware of the consequences and take them into account before deciding when, how, and where to introduce the measures. It seems useful to consider briefly the general impact of the measures proposed on the quality of urban life. We will consider all four elements of this quality and the impact of all measures mentioned on these elements. The elements are: 1. The environment (ENV) 2. The economy (ECO) 3. Social life (SOC) 4. Cultural life (CUL) The variables concerned may be listed as follows: 1. Demand side

1.1 Decentralization 1.2 Timing

(D) (T)

2. Supply side

Efficiency improvement

(E)

3. Modal split

3.1 Competitive position

(C)

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3.2 Quantitative restrictions (Q) We may now state 1. All measures proposed have a positive influence on the environment. 2. All measures proposed have a positive effect on the effectiveness of the economy with the possible exception of quantitative restrictions, the influence of which is uncertain. 3. The influence of the instruments on the quality of social life is much less clear. They have been studied much less than the influences on ENV and ECO. However it seems justified to state that the influence of D is uncertain and influences of all other variables are zero. In general, it can be expected that there will be hardly any influence of the measures proposed on the quality of social life in our cities. 4. The effects on cultural life of Τ, Ε and C are probably zero. Quantitative restrictions will likely have a negative influence on culture life, and the influence of decentralization is doubtful. We may summarize the foregoing in a simple table. Table 2. Summary of effects Measures

Term Long

ENV" ECO

+ +

+ +

+ +

+ +

+ +

D Τ

Demand side Medium

SOC

± Ο ο

ο

CUL

± ο

ο

ο

ο

Ε C

1 " ί J

Supply side Modal split

Short

In general, the effects of the measures proposed are positive or neutral. Only some effects on cultural life might be negative. As for the term, the recommendations are: 1. in the short term: measures concerning the modal split (C and Q); 2. in the medium term: measures concerning the improvement of efficiency (E) and timing (T); 3. in the long term: decentralization (D). It is rather difficult to list which measures are taken where in Europe. It might be clear from the foregoing that road pricing is most likely to be

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introduced in the U.K. first. This is probably the most promising development in urban transportation policy. Otherwise rather conventional thinking prevails. Not even experiences in U.S. cities have penetrated to many European cities. Those who try to introduce more new thinking, more constructive planning methods and do not condemn the car and favour public transportation should anticipate that their proposals will be regarded with suspicion. The foregoing considerations have focussed basically on the trends in our cities evolving from increasing income levels and motorization of the population. It is true that these considerations fail to cover the whole field of urban development but their importance is so overwhelming that it seemed justified to dedicate so many words to them.

6.

NEIGHBOURHOOD PLANNING

The planning of neighbourhoods is a critically important part of the work of the physical planners of cities and towns. Other than the planners who are responsible for the physical structure of the city as a whole, their task concentrates on typical neighbourhood activities to be carried out in agreeable residential surroundings. Primary and sports facilities comprise the most important of these activities. It is the task of the city planner to plan the overall structure and to indicate the framework into which the neighbourhood should fit. The task of the neighbourhood planner is to make the neighbourhood a pleasant place to live, to create a micro-structure that promotes social contacts and creates optimal conditions for the young to grow up in and for the elderly to enjoy living in. This task is not easier than that of the planner of the city as a whole. It is just different in nature. Many examples all over Europe show how easy it is to do a bad job, to build monotonous residential deserts devoid of any character or intimacy. Bad planning does not restrict itself to new neighbourhoods. Urban renewal projects plans in older parts of our cities are characterized by ruthless destruction of existing communities without any respect for informal social structures of the communities of those areas. Many renewal plans are based upon such technical criteria as age of the dwellings and facilities in the houses. Proper sociological studies of social structures and living patterns in those neighbourhoods are rarely carried out properly and even less often taken into account. All too often it is for-

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gotten that the city is there for the people living in it and that they are more important than the technical qualities of the physical structures in which they live. For the people to decide whether or not the place where they live is agreeable or not goes far beyond technical criteria. It is certainly true that very old houses should be modernized but it is certainly not true that the best way to bring a neighbourhood up to modern standards is replacing that whole neighbourhood by a new one. This might be true but is not necessarily so. Examples in the Netherlands (like Amersfoort) prove that a careful policy of restoration and interior renovation of old houses may yield far better results than ruthless, so-called renewal. Europe seems to be the ideal place to show how careful adjustment policies in older neighbourhoods with proper financing might not just conserve what is valuable from an architectural point of view but also keep those important parts of our cities alive. Action groups in many European cities where urban renewal plans are contemplated demonstrate that the populations of those areas often have completely different views on what should be done than do the public authorities with their rigid beliefs about what is good for them. They should be listened to, it is their neighbourhood. Authorities should keep in mind that the order of the decision might be too low to be taken by the city council. The weight of the opinions on the appropriate level should be in accordance with the importance of the decision for the very population involved.

7.

A RECONSIDERATION OF SOME PRINCIPLES

City planning is a long-run activity. It is planning a place for people to live and to work for the future as well as the present. Many European cities still have basically the same physical structure that was designed centuries ago. Most Italian and Spanish cities and many French, German, Belgian, and Dutch cities and towns remain as examples of brilliant architecture in the micro as well as the macro sense. What principles did the builders of these cities have in mind? Were the cities built with the intention that they remain forever? Were the builders of Rome or Salzburg constructing something for the enjoyment of all future generations? Or were they maximizing a discounted cash flow? We apply the latter criterion using a discount rate of ten per cent which means that everything after 20 years from now no longer counts. But is this compatible with the fact that what we build now with some exceptions, will still be there in another 100

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years? Were not large parts of the inner cores of present-day European cities built during the Middle Ages? Since then, over a period of 700 or 800 years, people enjoyed living in and looking at these cities. The more famous examples drew millions of tourists from all over the world. But all this joy during all these centuries would not have been had a discount rate of ten per cent been applied in the planning. Then only benefits during the first few years would have counted. It is in fact a strange procedure that we apply. Our decisions are perhaps too much influenced by financial constraints and conditions. The interest rate is an essentially, purely financial factor that certainly is influenced by the average or marginal returns on capital. But the real question is what the contribution of a given investment is to the society as a whole, now and in the future. We are beginning to understand urban renewal, for instance, might be highly profitable if we calculate on a purely financial basis, i.e., if we just count the price we paid for the land and the old structures on it and do not incorporate in our decisions the social structures that are being destroyed, the damage done to the overall image of the city, the impact on traffic conditions, and on and on. But if we would incorporate into our calculations all of these adverse effects, would then our return on capital be as high? Maybe we would not even earn two per cent as the true rate of return. It seems that a first conclusion can be drawn from these considerations. That conclusion is that city planning is not only to be left to private developers who are understandably forced to calculate in purely financial terms. If they are omitted from city building, they should only participate in planning and building under very strict rules set by local authorities, in the hope of course that those rules are sensible and wise. We should in other words shift from decisions giving attractive financial rates of return on capital to decisions giving an attractive rate of return considering the society as a whole. Whether this is done by shadow pricing or by more qualitative methods is basically irrelevant. The main thing is that we ought to start from a welfare function as older economists used to do as the only way to make correct decisions and not from one element of that welfare function, the financial part only. The second conclusion is linked to the former and concerns the discount rate to be used in the decision to carry out or not to carry out a given project. If we argue that the rate of return should be based on the contribution of the particular project to the welfare of the society as a whole, then we must also argue that all projects should be judged on this

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basis. But this means that the discount rate with which we compare the rate of return of an individual project has to considerably lower too than the financial rate of return on the isolated projects. If, to state the criterion formally, we could force the individual project developer to 'pay' for the social damage - to the environment, to other economic subjects in our society, in other words, for all the social, economic, cultural and environmental external effects - then a large number of projects would not have been profitable at all. And this is nothing else than saying that the average rate of return reflected in the interest rate is a bad criterion for the selection of investment projects. The conclusion from both statements is that the individual project probably has a much lower real rate of return than usually is assumed by developers but that also the discount rate to be applied will be lower than the prevailing rate of interest. Since urban projects have relatively many and important external effects compared to industrial projects, for example, the corrected rate of return on urban projects will decrease by this correction more than the overall rate of return. This implies that the relative attractiveness of urban renewal projects for developers will decrease considerably if they are charged for all external effects of their projects and even more if they must guarantee that there will be no external disbenefits at all. This group of problems is closely linked with the timing procedure in city planning. In many European countries, the conventional planning procedure calls for preparing a plan in 1970 for the city in the year 1980. In 1980 the plan is revised and a new plan for 1990 is made, and so on. It is basically point planning. First, this procedure implies a planning period, in the case at hand, of 10 years. This is nothing else but saying that the periods after the planning period are ignored. And this is basically the same as applying an interest rate of some 15 per cent. Applying a rate of, say, five per cent would mean that a much longer period would have to be taken into account. Suppose for a moment that we would do this. Then the period would extend from 1970 to, say, the year 2000. The planning for the year 1980 then will be basically different from the first one in which the year 1980 was considered as the final year. In the new procedure, the plan for 1980 has to be such that it fits into the development up to the year 2000. Arriving in the year 1980, the plan for 1990 will have to fit into the plan for the year 2010, etc. This planning period in this procedure may be determined by an optimization process in which the discount rate, as well

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as the costs of continuous adjustment and the lifetime of the buildings, play a role. It goes without saying that this discount rate should be corrected for all external effects of construction and demolition. The procedure proposed yields, at least to a reasonable extent, the possibility of real long-term planning where due regard is paid to social and cultural factors that all too often are neglected by modern city planners. These considerations lead us directly to the final point. That point is that city planning is basically an interdisciplinary activity in which economists, engineers, sociologists, architects, traffic experts, and ecologists should take part. It is not the task of a professional city planner. In fact such a profession should not exist at all. What should be done is to charge a team of experts to draw up, in close cooperation, a city plan in which all interests are in balance. There is no guarantee that they always will succeed in building a city in which everybody is happy but the chances that they will not be happy are at least considerably smaller than often is the case when applying conventional procedures. There remains still much to be done in European city planning. The interest shown in the subject nowadays and the revived interest in the values of the past give us the hope that the cities of the future will become better places to live in than the cities of the present. It is the duty of students in this field to assist governments in this enormous but fascinating task.

REFERENCES

Beesley, Μ. E. (1972) Economic alternatives in urban transport. In The quality of life. Oberhausen. I.G. Metall meeting. Papers. Busch, Η. (1972) Technical alternatives in traffic. In The quality of life. Oberhausen. I.G. Metall meeting. Papers. The Economist (1972) Shopping goes out of town, London. 15-21 April. I.G. Metall meeting. Papers. In this volume pp. 159-166. Klaassen, L. H. (1972) The quality of traffic. In The quality of life. Oberhausen. I.G. Metall meeting. Papers. & Wagenaar, S. (1972) Towards an operational definition of psychological distance. N.E.I. Research Papers. In this volume pp. 159-166. & Wagenaar, S. (forthcoming) Measuring the psychological distance between the Flemish and the Walloons. Paper presented at the meeting of the Regional Science Association, Rome 1971. NRC-Handelsblad (1972) Manhattan rukt op in Parijs. Amsterdam-Rotterdam. 1 April.

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Rittel, H. (1972) Social alternatives in traffic. In The quality of life. Oberhausen. I.G. Metall meeting. Papers. Schuck, Ο. Η. (1972) The future of traffic. In The qality of life. Oberhausen. I.G. Metall meeting. Papers. Vanhove, N. (1961) De doelmatigheid van het regionaal-economisch beleid in Nederland (The efficiency of regional economic policy in the Netherlands). HilversumAntwerp.

ALLAN R. PRED

6

Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and Swedish geographic research

1.

INTRODUCTION: SWEDISH ECONOMIC PROGRESS AND PROGRESS IN SWEDISH GEOGRAPHY

In recent decades Sweden has rapidly approached and crossed the threshold of the 'post-industrial', or 'super-industrial' age. Pronounced sectoral shifts have occurred within the country's economy. Employment in agriculture and other primary activities has plunged sharply. The number engaged in manufacturing production jobs has begun to decline. At the same time employment in the services and in private and public administration has grown from about 25 per cent of the national total in 1930 to roughly 50 per cent in the early 1970s. A rapidly paced spatial transformation of society has gone hand in hand with this great sectoral shake-up. The population has become increasingly urbanised in a pattern of'dispersed concentration' made possible by a soaring rate of automobile ownership. More specifically, Norrland and other heavily rural areas have experienced depopulation and most small urban places have either stagnated or regressed absolutely. Meanwhile, population and wealth have become increasingly concentrated in the three dominant nodes of the Swedish system of cities: Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö (Hägerstrand, 1966, 1968, 1969; Godlund, Hägerstrand & Svanström, 1967; Gerger 1968; Norborg, 1968; Öberg, 1969b; Öberg & Hägerstrand, 1970;Svenson & Thufvesson, 1971). This combination of phenomena in itself would probably have been sufficient to provoke many current Swedish geographic research efforts on the twin problems of urbanisation and regional development. However, recently developed government objectives and policies have provided such additional incentives that it would be no distortion of the truth to state that Swedish human geographic research is now overwhelmingly preoccupied with these twin problems.

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In 1964 the Swedish parliament approved legislation calling for more active regional planning at the provincial level. The same legislation enabled the government, through subventions and loans, to encourage selectively private investments in regions and places with lagging development (Öberg, 1968). Two of the stated objectives for this new policy are of relevance here: that 'the nation's capital and labour resources be fully exploited in such a manner that rapid economic progress be furthered'; and that 'rising prosperity be distributed in such a manner that the people of different parts of the country be offered a satisfactory level of social and cultural services' (Statens offentliga utredningar 1969: 27; Svenson & Thufvesson, 1971). In attempting to formulate 'an active regional policy', spokesmen for the ruling Social Democrats since 1964 have increasingly emphasised such concepts as 'regional equality', 'a more just regional structure', and 'a large-city alternative'. Such phrases are in keeping with their broader objective of creating greater 'social equality'. All this has led to a growing awareness of the need for trans-sectoral regional planning of a type to which Sweden's empirically grounded theoretical geographers are particularly well equipped to contribute in a variety of ways. Thus modern Swedish geographic research has been steered towards the realms of urbanisation and regional development in part as a result of the appointment of geographers to specialised government investigation commissions to the longer-standing 'Expert Group on Regional Development', and to posts within national and provincial planning organs (Öberg 1967a, 1967b; Expertgruppen for Regional Utredningsverksamhet, 1970). Swedish geographers are also allocating a considerable share of their energies to urbanisation and regional development problems because of the intellectual feedback obtained from their more pragmatic concerns. Many specific domestic issues raise more general questions on such matters as the development of systems of cities, and the interdependencies within and between spatially dispersed organisations. Moreover, there is the realisation that existing economic theory leaves much to be desired in the insights it provides for the formulation of regional development policies (Hägerstrand, 1969). While contemporary Swedish geography is focused mainly on topics pertaining to urban and regional development, these interests are by no means of very recent origin. Well over 50 years ago certain aspects of the location and growth of Swedish cities were the subject of lengthy investigation (Nelson, 1918). Over 30 years ago two now classic works appeared on Stockholm: one on its previous growth (William-Olsson, 1937); and

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the other, with clear planning implications, on its projected future development (William-Olsson, 1941). William-Olsson's efforts generated further observations and inquiries regarding the growth of Stockholm and other Swedish cities (Overton, 1941, 1942). However, it was not until the 1950s that Swedish geographic research relating to urban and regional development gained real momentum as a result of the stimulus provided by domestic planning problems. Today, much urban-regional research by Swedish geographers is of considerable relevance to similar efforts in other countries. Yet, because of a language barrier, much important Swedish literature remains inaccessible outside of Scandanavia. The following essay attempts to summarise some of the most significant items of recently completed and ongoing Swedish research. In order to provide some perspective, certain themes pursued during the 1950s and early and mid-1960s will first be reviewed.

2.

RESEARCH OF THE 1950s AND 1960S RELATING TO URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING

2.1 Studies influenced by central place theory In many respects the urban-regional concern of Swedish geography was heralded by the growing employment of central-place-theory concepts which came about largely as a result of Kant's research and influence (Kant, 1946, 1951; Bergsten, 1950). Hand in hand with this orientation there developed a number of studies dealing with the delimitation, measurement and dynamics of urban trade and service areas and urban spheres of influence in general (Hägerstrand, 1949, 1950; Dahl, 1949, 1954; Kant, 1951; Godlund, 1951, 1954, 1956a, 1956b; Enequist, 1951; Bergsten, 1951; Johnsson, 1952). Some of the earliest and most farreaching planning contributions made by Swedish geographers sprang from this research tradition. In the early 1950s Pälsson (1953, 1954) began to explore the location of gymnasiums in terms of their population requirements, or thresholds, and the transport services and spheres of influence of alternative sites. This work was carried out at a time when, because of urbanisation and increased educational demands, new gymnasiums were being built at a relatively rapid pace. It culminated in a monograph (Pälsson, 1958) which, among other things, presented a straightforward methodology for

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choosing between school location alternatives. Pälsson's procedure rested on the use of detailed population maps - he was much influenced here by the previous work of De Geer (1919) and William-Olsson (1946) and determination of the number of students who could be reached by private or public conveyance within successive total-travelling-time zones defined by 20-minute intervals. Where necessary, relative location vis-ä-vis the spheres of influence of central places already possessing gymnasiums was taken into consideration. Pälsson also demonstrated that the distancedecay of gymnasium attendance was affected not only by transportationtime requirements, but also by the uneven spatial distribution of those elements of the population most apt to encourage a gymnasium education for their children. As a result of his work Pälsson was at first employed by the authorities of communities wishing to establish a gymnasium locally. Shortly thereafter Pälsson's services were requested by the National Board of Education. Soon several geographers familiar with his techniques were given assignments by the Board, and since then geographers have been permanently employed to carry out locational studies for a wide variety of educational institutions. A more recent account of the central-place principles used by the Board in deciding the location and size of schools is given in Jacobson (1965). Geographic expertise has also been enlisted by the Swedish government on decisions regarding the location of public facilities with a much higher threshold - namely, 'regional hospitals' with highly specialised clinics and facilities not available in smaller-scale hospitals. The basic study on this question was produced by Godlund (1958a) and has been restated briefly in English (Godlund, 1961). Godlund's problem was to identify high-order central places that could command a hospital hinterland of approximately one million persons by 1970. Such places were also to provide as good transportation opportunities as possible for as large a share of the population as possible. In part this required that the existing population distribution be analysed in terms of travel-time distances to alternative locations, with a four-hour one-way trip arbitrarily used to delineate the outer range of each central place considered. Since the problem was one of relatively long-range planning, it was additionally necessary to make regional population projections that took into account both rural depopulation and changing occupational structure. Greatly increased leisure time for the individual has been a significant by-product of rapid urbanisation and productivity advances in Sweden. As a consequence, for some time there has been a growing demand for

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leisure-time public services in general, and multifunctional 'public assembly halls', or 'community centres', in particular. (Such facilities are usually employed for state-supported cultural activities, local organisational meetings, and for dances, film showings and other commercial ventures.) In the late 1950s a national organisation called upon a geographer to look into the 'community-centre' location problem to provide guidelines for locating 'the right facility in the right place'. The resulting study (Claeson, 1960), based on about 200 already existing facilities and data for no less than 218,000 clientele, in several respects deals in considerable empirical detail with classical central-place problems. These include the threshold level of differing services, the delimitation of service ranges, the variation of service-consumption frequency and the service range for central places of differing population size, and the definition of market-area boundaries. In conclusion the author proposed a hierarchical location pattern of 'assembly halls' based upon the varying threshold levels of the services involved. In a later less practically oriented study Claeson (1964) attacked the same range and boundary problems from a gravity-model perspective. In the early 1960s the number of Swedish 'municipalities', or basic local-government units, was reduced drastically from over 1000 to 282, and 70 larger 'municipality blocks' were simultaneously formed. This redrawing of the map of Sweden unquestionably represents the most significant contribution of central-place research to that country's planning. Although a major local government reform had occurred as recently as 1952, when 2,281 rural parishes and over 200 urban units were amalgamated into 1,037 municipalities, it was quite plain by the late 1950s that considerable revamping was necessary. Among other things, the spatial population shifts brought about by continuing urbanisation had greatly diminished the number of inhabitants in many municipalities. In addition, the changing pattern of daily population circulation accompanying structural shifts in the economy served to emphasise the configurational differences between administrative units and spontaneously developed local functional regions. Furthermore, there were a growing number of indications that the threshold requirements for the increasing variety of government provided social services were substantially greater than the population level and economic capacity of the smaller municipalities. In particular, the threshold and range limitations of many municipalities were a considerable obstacle to two government objectives: to provide equitable school facilities, and to insure the availability of qualified

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personnel for the operation and administration of other social services {Statens offentliga utredningar 1961: 9). In the face of these problems a special investigatory committee was set up by the Ministry of the Interior. This group appointed Hägerstrand and Godlund to propose a methodology for devising new municipal units and boundaries. In their portion of the committee's final report Hägerstrand and Godlund (1961) argued that it was necessary to create administrative municipalities which more or less coincided with spontaneous local regions: i.e., urban units plus their central-place hinterlands, or influence fields. Central places, which were defined as places 'that spontaneously fill commercial and intellectural [cultural] functions for themselves and their surroundings', were judged to need a 1975 population of at least 8,000 within their total influence fields if they were to function successfully as municipality cores over a long period of time. The creation of new municipalities was thus viewed as a problem of central-place influence field delimitation. A simple three-step procedure for constituting municipalities was proposed to provincial planning authorities. 1. The population agglomerations of each study-area were to be mapped and their number of inhabitants ascertained. 2. The most important central places in the study-area were to be identified through application of Godlund's index of centrality. According to this formulation (Godlund, 1954), the centrality of a place (C) may be expressed as follows: (1) where Bt is the number of shops in place t, Pt is the population of place t, mt is a correction factor based on the size of shops in t, and kr is a correction factor based on the degree to which the surrounding hinterland contains its own shops. 3. The boundaries of new municipalities were to be drawn around central places which had appropriate centrality indices and which promised to have an adequate population according to projections for 1975. Boundaries were to be determined initially by Godlund's (1954,1956b) 'theoretical' method, since in a few case studies it had yielded results that corresponded very well with boundaries based on empirical passenger-traffic inquiries. Later, boundaries could be adjusted somewhat according to existing administrative borders. Godlund's method required solution of two expressions:

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and (3) where r is the radius of place Vs hinterland; L is the distance separating places a and b; Ca and Cb are the centrality indices of a and b (Ca > Cb); and m is the distance from the mathematical midpoint of b's hinterland to a. It is clear from the remainder of the Ministry of the Interior's report {Statens offentliga utredningar 1961: 9) that the policy implemented eventually for forming new municipalities was influenced in varying degrees by work of other geographers, including Dahl (1949), Edestam (1955), Enequist (1955), Bosaeus (1958), Jacobson (1958), Arpi (1959) and Lewan (1960). A synopsis of geographic contributions to the Swedish municipal revisions of the early 1960s is contained in Jakobsson (1964). During the 1950s and 1960s a number of much less influential geographic studies partly or fully inspired by central-place theory were carried out for planning purposes at the local level. In conjunction with the formulation of a general plan for Uppsala the structure, spatial organisation and movement patterns of that city's central-place hinterland were analysed at length (Bosaeus, 1960; Bosaeus, Langhed & Ytterberg, 1960). A Ministry of the Interior report concerning depopulation and planning problems in the province of Jämtland (Statens offentliga utredningar 1963: 45), and compiled under the direction of a geographer, dissected the area's spatial organisation in terms of central-place influence spheres. It was emphasised that where a dominant central place was lacking it would be wise to concentrate new municipal and national services at a single alternative. This action, supposedly, would eliminate unnecessary trips for the local population and create a single commercial and service focus capable of attracting new manufacturing establishments. At the behest of local planning boards the changing and projected pattern of intra-urban retail-store location has been investigated in several places, for example in Lund (Bengtsson, 1964a, 1964b, 1967a, 1967b; Bengtsson & Christiansson, 1968). At least one retail-store locational analysis has been undertaken at the subprovincial level for a group of municipalities in Skäne concerned with the planning implications of future threshold and range developments (Bengtsson & Christiansson, 1968). The impact of

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new highway bypasses on retail sales areas has been explored for the Royal Board of Roads and Waterways (Bengtsson, 1964c). 2.2 The development and use of coordinate

mapping

Much Swedish geographic research of the late 1940s and early 1950s involved micro-scale analysis that required the use of detailed population distribution maps. This was true, for example, of the migration studies by Hägerstrand (1947, 1949) and Wallander (1948), of the school location work by Pälsson (1953), of the often cited bus-traffic study by Godlund (1956a,b), and of Hägerstrand's fundamental innovation-diffusion monograph (1953, 1967a). The construction of such maps usually presented a problem, not only because it was time-consuming, but also because the areas to be depicted, of necessity, did not correspond with the administrative territories for which aggregate data were available. At the same time there was a dawning awareness that the social and economic data annually collected for each administrative unit were of limited flexibility for planning purposes. In this context Hägerstrand (1955) proposed that population statistics and associated social and economic data be collected on a coordinate basis. More precisely, he suggested that every piece of real-estate property be assigned χ and y coordinates based on a common origin and that these coordinates should always be recorded for each respondent by local and national data-collecting agencies. In order to demonstrate the potential advantages accruing from such a procedure, and from plotting data in uniformly sized cells that were independent of administrative boundaries, Hägerstrand himself used a real-estate register to construct a series of population maps for a municipality in Smäland. Once computerised, it was clear that the mapping methodology would offer a variety of research and practical benefits. For data collected on a coordinate basis and plotted within cells permits: 1. easier aggregation of material pertaining to functionally defined study areas; 2. the comparison of data for fixed areas at different points in time, regardless of any intervening administrative boundary changes; 3. the analysis of data referring to only part of an administrative unit; 4. the spatial linking of data series collected for different purposes on dissimilar grounds; 5. easier automatic data processing, for example, when computing inter-

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point distances or the area covered by a given phenomenon; 6. the construction of highly accurate potential, market accessibility, and other isarithmic maps since the areal units of calculation (cells) are equally sized; 7. the selection of statistically valid samples when studying varying types of locational relationships (Hägerstrand, 1955, 1967c; Fastbom & Thufvesson, 1966; Statens ojfentliga utredningar, 1966: 63). A few years after Hägerstrand's initial proposal, during the early 1960s, government authorities became painfully aware of the need to revise Sweden's previously separate rural and urban real-estate registries. In the face of a swift spatial redistribution of the population and rapid structural shifts in the economy, the principal intent was to make better local, regional and national planning use of the social and economic data collected annually for each real-estate unit. The Ministry of Justice investigatory commission charged with devising a registry revision placed particular emphasis on the need for locational accuracy and the coordination of data collected for different purposes. They also stressed the need for an information system that was flexible in terms of areal coverage and sampling possibilities and a system that easily lent itself to computer processing. In as much as a wide variety of government agencies had already recognised its advantages, the commission therefore proposed the adoption of Hägerstrand's coordinate proposal (Statens ojfentliga utredningar, 1966: 63). It also arranged for an initial test of the methodology in the province of Östergötland so as to determine, among other things, the practical problems involved in assigning population to coordinate points and in preparing computer tapes from the newly combined registries (Justitiedepartementet 1967:12). After further consultation with national, regional and provincial agencies, an assessment of data needs for planning purposes, and modification of the coordinate assignment methodology (Justitiedepartementet 1967:12), a bill was placed before parliament. Finally, in 1968, legislative approval was granted for the establishment of a nationwide real-estate registry and information system based upon uniform coordinate assignment procedures (Wallner, 1968). Since conversion of the pre-existing rural and urban registries has been completed only very recently, it is much too early to assess the impact of Hägerstrand's method of mapping and of spatially aggregating data upon planning analyses and strategies in Sweden and in those countries which have already followed in Sweden's footsteps. Nevertheless, coordinate mapping techniques have already proved useful in the analysis of journey-

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to-work patterns in the Göteborg metropolitan area, and in both traffic and school location planning. In addition, it is quite apparent from some of the work completed by Swedish geographers that the potential dividends are quite promising. They have enhanced coordinate mapping possibilities through the development of computer programs for the assignment of coordinates to the central points of irregular polygons and other figures (Nordbeck 1962, 1964; Nordbeck & Rystedt, 1967), and for the determination of air-line distances between map coordinates (Nordbeck, 1964; Nordbeck & Rystedt, 1969). In a more practical vein, a method has been divised for the computer delimitation of urbanised areas based upon population data plotted within uniformly sized cells (Nordbeck, 1969). Nordbeck (1967) has also employed coordinate mapping to study the journey-to-school patterns and traffic risks of 750 Lund students aged between 7 and 15. In part, this involved plotting the residential location of the students from one school within cells of 100 χ 100 metres and superimposing the result upon a map of the city's street pattern. The larger-scale utility of coordinate mapping has been demonstrated, for example, in a gravity model analysis of the cinema hinterlands of towns of varying size in Kronoberg province (Claeson, 1964), and in a comprehensive study of Swedish migration patterns during the 1950s (Jakobsson, 1969). The latter work, which was sponsored by the National Housing Board and the Central Bureau of Statistics, focused on a Pareto model analysis of the migration-field changes of selected places and actually was designed as a test of the large-scale applicability of coordinate mapping. Jakobsson's monograph is a significant contribution because of its sample of 750,000 persons, its findings regarding the pronounced directional biases of migration fields, and the manner in which it builds upon the strong Swedish geographic tradition of urbanisation-related migration research (Bergsten, 1951; Claeson, 1968, 1969a; Dahl, 1951, 1955; Godlund, 1959; Hägerstrand, 1947, 1949, 1950, 1957, 1962; Helmfrid, 1963; Järhult, 1958; Johnsson, 1952; Kant, 1946, 1953; Kulldorff, 1955; Lövgren, 1956, 1957; G. Olsson, 1962, 1965a, 1965b; Sjögren, 1959; Wallander, 1948; Wendel, 1953, 1957).

2.3 Transportation and traffic studies

Largely as a result of the attention initially drawn to Godlund's pioneering work on Swedish bus traffic (1954; 1956a, 1956b), the Swedish Royal Board of Roads and Waterways and other government agencies have

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repeatedly called upon Godlund and other geographers to undertake surveys involving a variety of transportation problems associated with the country's changing economic structure and pattern of regional development. Godlund's expertise was first tapped in the mid-1950s when he was asked to advise on the development of a new national highway plan. He provided both a background survey of developing trends in the length and composition of highway traffic (Godlund, 1958b) and contributed to a study of the existing and anticipated traffic generated by different economic sectors in various parts of the country. In addition he summarised the major route-change proposals (Godlund, 1958c). In conjunction with the development of the same national highway plan geographers carried out origin-and-destination studies. They also delimited the traffic fields and traffic hinterlands of Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö plus a number of lesser Swedish cities. The traffic drainage area of an entire major highway was also surveyed (Österlin & Bengtsson, 1958; Bengtsson, 1957a, 1957b, 1959). These latter works were significant not only in their impact on the determination of road-building priorities, but also because of their then unusual use of coordinate mapping to plot trucking origins and destinations and other phenomena. At about the same time these highway studies were undertaken Godlund (1958a, 1961) was completing his hospital location investigation (see above, p. 302) which focused on transportation services and travel-time distances to alternative cities. The subsequent transportation-related geographic research of the 1960s has had wide ramifications. For instance, Törnqvist's work (1962, 1963, 1964, 1971) has served as a guide to some private-business and public planners. He has demonstrated both the generally declining importance of transport costs on Swedish manufacturing location (through the use of an ingenious algorithm for simultaneously finding the optimal locations and capacities for several units), and the more specific impact of lowered transport costs on the pattern of industrial concentration. Recent action by the Swedish government stems partially from the advisory reports of geographers concerning the construction of a bridge or a tunnel across the Öresund, which separates the rapidly coalescing urban complexes stretching from Malmö to Hälsingborg on the Swedish side and from Copenhagen to Helsingör on the Danish side. The first of these reports (Olsson, Thufvesson & Godlund, 1961) was designed partly as a survey of the spatial characteristics of the commodity traffic crisscrossing the Öresund. It also contained differently based projections of future truck traffic between Sweden and Denmark. On the basis of these

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estimates the authors argued that a linkage between Malmö and Copenhagen would be equally advantageous as a span between Hälsingborg and Helsingör. Further reports were generated in the mid-1960s when the communications ministries of Sweden and Denmark began to review previous proposals {Statens offentliga utredningar 1962:53,1962:54) and to look more seriously into the technical, economical and regional developmental aspects of the site and construction alternatives (Statens offentliga utredningar 1967: 54). Godlund was a contributing member of the expert committee which both analysed the origins and destinations of existing Öresund traffic and made new projections - under conditions with and without a bridge or tunnel - for future passenger, car and truck movements. Hägerstrand participated on another committee concerned with the economic and regional development consequences following from the implementation of specific alternatives. The work completed under his direction (Hägerstrand, 1967b, 1967c) was instrumental in revealing there were clear relative advantages to be harvested from a Malmö-Copenhagen trans-öresund route. These findings influenced the recently acted upon proposal that such a route should be given construction priority over a cheaper Hälsingborg-Helsingör linkage. Hägerstrand and his Lund associates reached this conclusion by providing answers to three questions: 1. What is the time-distance by car in all directions from each study-area place required to encompass a population of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.5 and 4.0 million persons? 2. What are the truck transportation costs required from each place to distribute a given volume of goods to these population totals? 3. How large a population can be reached by car from each place within one, two and three hours' travel time? Computer calculations were made for each of these questions under five different assumptions: no tjaffic between Sweden and Denmark across the öresund; existing ferry connections between Copenhagen and Malmö, and Helsingör and Hälsingborg remain in operation; a connection between Copenhagen and Malmö is built and ferries continue to operate between Helsingör and Hälsingborg; a connection between Helsingör and Hälsingborg is built and ferries continue to operate between Copenhagen and Malmö; and connections are constructed between both pairs of ports. The maps (Figures la-Id) and 'locational profiles' resulting from these calculations showed that the time (or high-threshold regional-market accessibility) gains to be reaped for the entire öresund area would be

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greatest with a Copenhagen-Malmö link. This was due in part to the existing population distribution and in part to the already relatively short travel time separating Hälsingborgfrom Helsingör. Late in 1972, following the plebiscite which enabled Denmark to enter the Common Market, the Swedish government decided to bear the entire expense of a CopenhagenMalmö link. This is to be completed before 1980. In a quite different instance geographic research has resulted in the rejection of major transportation improvements. In 1961 Godlund was appointed chairman of a special Communications Ministry committee charged with investigating the feasibility of realigning and/or improving the system of canals connecting Lakes Vänern and Vättern with the Swedish west coast. Among the previous works the committee could fall back upon was a survey of the economic-geographic bases for widening that portion of the Göta Canal linking Lakes Vänern and Vättern with each other (Hägerstrand, Finnveden, Glimberg & Norborg, 1960). This earlier report contained a detailed analysis of the existing pattern of goods transport via Lake Vättern, as well as a prognosis of the traffic to be generated in the future by industries located near the lake. It also outlined a methodology for determining hypothetical future port hinterlands based, on the one hand, solely on the use of overland transportation and, on the other, on the use of a widened canal. Similarly, the reports turned out by Godlund's committee (Statens offentliga utredningar 1967:32,1967:33) focused largely on existing freight movements, an industry by-industry prognosis of future freight volumes, and the total transport-cost savings possible under various alternatives. On the basis of these inquiries it was recommended that no improvement of the canal between Lake Vänern and Vättern should be undertaken. The wisdom of a short new canal from Lake Vänern to the port of Uddevalla was also seriously questioned. Only a gradual widening of the present Trollhätta Canal route between Lake Vänern and Göteborg was proposed, and this began to be implemented in 1972. Significantly, both the earlier and later reports emphasised the declining importance of transport costs in the future locational calculus of economic activities. Other major planning-related transportation and traffic studies completed by Swedish geographers have been of a somewhat more general nature. One such investigation, performed under the auspices of the Ministry of Finance (Godlund, 1966), was aimed at making transportation development forecasts in the context of those processes underlying urbanisation, locational changes and structural shifts in the economy. This

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Fig. ι

Travel time by car—from points on both sides of the öresund-—required to encompass a population of one million. After Hägerstrand (ig6yb) a : The öresund functions as a total barrier to car traffic. b : Ferries between both Copenhagen and Malmö, and Helsingor and Hälsingborg,

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Fig. ι

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cs Bridge and/or tunnel between Copenhagen and Malmö, ferry between Helsingör and Hälsingborg. d : Ferry between Copenhagen and Malmö, bridge or tunnel between Helsingör and Hälsingborg.

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orientation was chosen because the processes in question understandably were regarded as key influences on 'transport needs and traffic developments, totally, regionally and locally'. In particular, an effort was made to foresee passenger traffic developments in relationship to the future pattern of urbanisation, and to project freight traffic developments within a framework of anticipated sectorial realignments of the economy. Much of the text is devoted to regression estimates of the growth of automobile use and specific transportation and communication branches. These estimates were 'based on the assumption that there is a connection between traffic growth and the growth of some macro-economic unit, primarily private consumption or GNP.' As part of a Ministry of Communications inquiry into the future of Swedish ports, Godlund (1969) undertook a not unrelated comprehensive survey in which he attempted to fulfil three objectives. The first was to summarise structural and locational adjustments within the Swedish economy between 1950 and 1965 and to consider what further changes were likely by 1980. The second was to use this background material to analyse trends in the development of the national transportation system. Here, Godlund emphasised import and export freight movements and attempted to estimate the total tonnage of goods from various sectors to be moved through Swedish ports in 1980. Finally, he sought to provide a region-by-region analysis of projected 1980 port traffic. While recognising the limitations of his estimates, Godlund repeatedly stressed the increasing interdependence between both different activities and the major foci of urbanisation, as well as the functioning of circular and cumulative feedback mechanisms. He hoped that his overall discussion would provide 'planners, politicians and decision-makers information regarding how [underlying] processes operate and how society functions.' A third, even more general survey of joint transportation trends and prospects in Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland has been carried out by geographers for the Nordic Council, or Nordiska rädet, an intergovernmental organisation (Ekström, Godlund, Nordström, Williamson & Wärneryd, 1969). Among the questions posed and analysed were: 1. To what extent does cooperation exist among the commerce and industry of the four countries of Norden and how does that cooperation function? 2. What effects does such cooperation have upon traffic within Norden? 3. How are the four countries' transport relations with other surrounding countries constituted and what volumes are involved?

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4. What major changes in transportation technology are in progress or can be expected? 5. What impact are these developments likely to have on Norden's transportation system? 6. What concrete changes can be expected or recommended regarding the location of large airports, major port facilities, oil depots and other specialised ports; and the future of railroad traffic, of highway traffic, and border-area planning cooperation? Once again, considerable emphasis was placed on the growing interdependence between a few leading urban regions and on the multiple cumulative feedback loops governing transportation-system development (Figure 2). More specifically it was pointed out that the increasing economic advantages of scale and specialisation are apt to generate increased spatial interaction within Norden. It was noted too that:

Fig. 2

Cumulative feedback process relating to the development of transportation systems. After Godlund (1969) and Ekström, Godlund, Nordström, Williamson and Wärneryd {1969) as adopted from Pred (1966)

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'Concentration tendencies in economic activities ... lead to a form of hierarchically structured transport system. The major nodes of the system are acquiring more numerous transport possibilities while places of smallsize order or in an unfavourable geographical location apparently are acquiring fewer of the transportation possibilities necessary to satisfy their needs.' The survey concluded with a number of policy proposals. 1. There are definite economic advantages to the development of a special Nordic airport for long-distance goods traffic and such an airport would be best located in the vicinity of Copenhagen. 2. The transition in ocean-shipping to containers and unit cargoes suggests that there are very large cost savings to be derived from concentrating most of the four countries' trans-oceanic shipping at Göteborg, from where redistribution would take place. 3. There are no similar grounds for the concentration of oil-depot activities in Norden. 4. There is a need for a better coordination of highway-planning policies in Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland. Just what long-run impact these proposals will have upon the transportation planning policies of the Nordic Council's member states remains to be seen.

3.

RECENT SYSTEMS- A N D PROCESS-ORIENTED RESEARCH

It is evident from the three last transportation studies to be discussed that, by the late 1960s, Swedish geographers were becoming increasingly preoccupied with a systems and process approach to planning and research problems. During the last few years there has been an increasing tendency to concentrate on the processes generating structural and regional interdependencies within Sweden's continuously urbanising and spatially changing society. Studies centring on the pragmatic details of locating schools, hospitals and activities of specific sectors are no longer in the research mainstream. Such an alteration of focus, of course, was not abrupt. Partly as a result of work published by Swedish economists (Artie, 1957), Swedish geographers were introduced to the structural interdependence frame of thinking associated with input-output analysis (R. Olsson, 1958). However, as late as 1966, when the advantages of analysing regional development and urbanisation problems in process terms was under discussion (Hägerstrand, 1966), little in the way of

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concrete research or theory formulation had been completed. Since that time significant advances have been made in at least four study areas: the composition of economic-contact, or information-exchange, systems and their impact on urban-regional development; the construction and application of a 'time-geography' model of society; interrelationships between the spatial structure of organisations and the growth of urban systems; and problems associated with the regional development of Norrland. 3.1 The composition of economic-contact systems and their impact on urban-regional development It has been observed that behind the economic structural changes, the spatial concentration of jobs and population, the land-use changes and the increased mobility emerging in Sweden and other countries, a pattern has developed of increasing specialisation and horizontal cooperation among human activities (Hägerstrand, 1964; öberg & Hägerstrand, 1970). The underlying movement towards more pronounced divisions of labour and interdependence has required a growing volume of inter-urban interaction involving information, humans and materials. And, as activity specialisation is compounded in the future, the volume of information exchange among spatially separated entities can be expected to multiply particularly rapidly. At the same time it has been found that falling transportation costs have allowed 'footloose' factories to leave Sweden's major metropolitan regions while those regions have continued to grow owing to a rising number of employment opportunities in other activities (Törnqvist, 1963,1964,1968,1970a, 1970b). This jointset of circumstances has encouraged Törnqvist and his associates to undertake a series of investigations aimed at providing a better empirical and theoretical grasp of the relationships between information flows of an economic nature and the urbanisation process (Seebass 1969; Högmark, 1969; Engström, 1970; Hedberg, 1970; Sahlberg, 1970; Törnqvist, 1970a; 1970b, 1971, 1972; Gould & Törnqvist, 1971; Törnqvist, Engström & Sahlberg, 1971; Persson & Sahlberg, 1971). These studies, produced for the Ministry of the Interior's Expert Group on Regional Development, have been paralleled by a number of related inquiries by geographers and others (Wärneryd, 1967a; Gerger, 1967, 1969; B. Olsson, 1967; Thorngren, 1967, 1970a, 1970b, 1972; Guteland & Nordström, 1970). Thus far there have been at least four major products associated with

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Törnqvist's research project. The first of these is Sahlberg's (1970) analysis of interregional business travel in Sweden via domestic airlines. The primary purpose of this effort was 'to trace the patterns of [policyplanning and problem-solving] face-to-face communication between employees in Swedish [private and public] economic activity.' By definition, the data base collected in the spring of 1967, which directly or indirectly referred to roughly 30,000 individuals, was confined to relatively long-distance informational contacts. Interviewed individuals were classified according to occupation and job function as well as place of origin and destination. Not surprisingly, it was found that, regardless of location, the 'exchange of information via personal contacts between employees in the Swedish economy is concentrated to a few task functions.' The highlevel administrative and management employees in question principally perform 'duties of a coordinating and organisational character'. They therefore require face-to-face contact 'both with employees from other parts of the same organisation and with employees in other organisations' that have either organisationally similar operations or interdependent functions. The data not only revealed that the number of non-local information contacts tends to rise as one progresses to higher and higher levels of responsibility within an organisation, but also that the amount of time allocated to contact activity increases at higher organisational job levels - probably because of the increased element of uncertainty associated with complex informational exchanges. In fact, in certain instances the amount of time spent on interregional contacts may account for a considerable proportion of the individual's work week. More concretely: 'Approximate estimates show that contacts with the major urban regions [Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö] take up between 20-35 per cent of the total working hours of some employees based in other parts of the country. Contrariwise, certain employees based in the major urban regions spend a great deal of their working hours on contacts with the rest of the country. ... When time is valuable, a central location makes it possible to increase the number of contacts per unit of time. The equivalent number of contacts made from a less central location would require a distribution of contact activity between several persons.' Sahlgren's data further indicated that there is a great degree of large-city interdependence within the Swedish system of long-distance business contacts. That is, not only is Stockholm the dominant node of this information-exchange system, with each studied region having Stockholm at the other end of its primary linkage, but the most important components

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a : Percentage breakdown by predominant destination regions of domesticairline passengers outward-bound from Stockholm. After Sahlberg {1970)

of the system as a whole are the two-way flows between Stockholm and Göteborg and between Stockholm and Malmö (Figures 3a and 3b). Most importantly, since a considerable amount of money as well as time is spent on interregional face-to-face contacts, since the most heavily contact-

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Skelleftea Umeä Örnsköldsvik

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Halmstad HälsingborgÄngelholm 200 km

Flg. 3 b: Percentage breakdown by predominant origin regions of domesticairline passengers inward-bound to Stockholm. After Sahlberg (1970)

oriented organisational functions are mainly located in Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö, and since these top-level contact-oriented functions have a marked multiplier effect both within and outside their own organisations, it is cautiously concluded that there is a connection

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between the need for face-to-face communication and the concentration of activities in general at the three leading metropolitan regions. The second element in the tetralogy under discussion, Hedberg's (1970) survey of the external personal contacts of specific organisations, differs significantly from Sahlberg's work in that it considers short- as well as long-distance information flows. In the initial chapters of his monograph Hedberg reviews some general concepts of organisational structure and communications theory. He then broadly considers the relationships between the functional nature of an organisation's contacts, the spatial pattern of an organisation's contacts, and the influence of contact costs on organisational location. Most of the remainder of the work describes the functional and spatial pattern of contacts generated by administrative and management personnel in thirteen organisations - seven industrial firms, three governmental agencies, two trade and labour organisations, and one bank. On the basis of his 1,760 processed questionnaires Hedberg depicts in detail the relationships between Swedish contact patterns, contact costs and the locational preferences of administrative and operating units. In so doing he stresses the repeated feedback between existing information-exchange patterns, subsequent location decisions and newly generated information-exchange patterns. Many of Hedberg's empirical generalisations, including the following, are consonant with Sahlberg's findings. 1. Administrative units, on the average, indulge in much more contact activity than operating units. 2. Employees at the highest job levels, who are generally involved in more intensive information-exchange activity than lower-level employees, are highly concentrated spatially. 3. In particular, contact-intensive employees and organisations are primarily concentrated in Stockholm and secondarily in the Göteborg and Malmö metropolitan areas. 4. There generally appears to be a strong relationship between the need for face-to-face information exchange and the degree of spatial concentration. A number of Hedberg's other observations are particularly interesting because of what they reveal or suggest about the structure and development processes of systems of cities. For example, organisational contacts between units located at any two cities tend to be equal in both directions - a pattern which clearly conflicts with interurban information - spread

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models built solely upon Christallerian central-place theory. Likewise, the finding that the composition of local contacts for similar organisations varies from place to place suggests that the nonlocal multipliers, or system influences, of similar location decisions vary spatially. A similar conclusion is suggested by the fact that the majority of contacts for all types of organisations are of three basic varieties: 1. those within the immediate region; 2. those with the three dominant metropolitan areas; 3. those with contiguous regions. See, for example, Figure 4a-d.

Fig. 4

a - d : Percentage breakdown of contact time by destination centres for manufacturing companies Α-D. Note the assignment of data to uniformly sized cells (coordinate mapping). After Törnqvist (igyoa)

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The third component of the project directed by Törnqvist is Engström's (1970) effort to appraise changes between 1960 and 1966 in the Swedish regional division of labour and their relation to organisational contact needs. Engström maintains that the 'need for direct personal contact probably has a great influence on the location patterns of various functions.' In this context he reviews the relevant theoretical literature and arrives at three working assumptions: 1. O n account of constant technical, economic and social developments there is also a constant reorganisation of organised human activity ... with the result that its spatial structure also constantly changes. 2. 'Certain work functions in what are here called the administrative units of organisations - and particularly the most contact-intensive employees [Ax and A2 in Figure 5] - tend to concentrate in a few large urban regions. On the other hand, persons employed in what are called the operating units of organisations [D in Figure 5] tend to assume a more regionally dispersed locational pattern. 3. 'The expansion of employment in Sweden, which is taking place in what we have called the administrative units of organisations, tends to be relatively faster for employees at higher levels than for those at lower levels, and faster for employees in certain work functions than others.'

Fig. 5

Hypothetical diagram of two organisations, each consisting of an administrative unit (circle) and an operating unit (rectangle). The administrative units are divided into three levels based on the degree of contact activity of the employees involved. Arrows indicate face-to-face contacts between employees in both organisations. After Engström (1970)

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Engström's analysis of Sweden's changing employment geography was based upon the functional and job-level classification of occupations designed by the Swedish Employers' Confederation, and also utilised by both Sahlberg and Hedberg. It was established that by 1966 the Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö metropolitan regions in combination accounted for only 29 per cent of all manufacturing employment, but for 42 per cent of all 'lower-level' administrative employees in the manufacturing, construction and wholesaling sectors, for 46 per cent of the contact-intensive 'higher-level' administrative employees in those same sectors; and no less than 62 per cent of the 'highest level' administrative employees in public administration and other services. At the same time the three city-regions contained roughly 31 per cent of Sweden's population. More significantly, working assumptions (2) and (3) (p. 322) were 'definitely confirmed' by evidence for 1960-1966. It was shown, among other things, that 1. a heavy decline of 8 per cent occurred in the Stockholm region's manufacturing employment; 2. the number of 'higher-level' administrative employees in the manufacturing, construction and wholesaling sectors grew by nearly 40 per cent in Stockholm, 46 per cent in Göteborg and 67 per cent in Malmö, but only by 31 per cent in the rest of the country; 3. employment in public administration and other services, while remaining disproportionately concentrated in the Stockholm area expanded nationally by 28 per cent as compared to 5.5 per cent for the three city-regions. There were an estimated 250,000 'contact-intensive' employees in Sweden in 1966, and about half of these were working in Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö where, compared to other cities in the national system, the existing transportation network allows for considerable time and cost savings in the maintenance of face-to-face contacts. Given the high salary levels of 'contact-intensive' employees, the intra-organisational indivisibilities associated with their job units, and the locational attraction exerted by their job units on extra-organisational activities, Engström and Törnqvist (1970a, 1970b, 1971, 1972) suggest that these employees generate sizable multiplier effects and are largely responsible for the recent population expansion of Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö. By extension, these same employees also account for the recent accentuation of regional inequalities in income distribution, social structure and educational opportunities.

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The final and conceptually most significant product in the series under discussion builds upon the findings of its three predecessors (Törnqvist, Engström & Sahlberg 1971; Törnqvist, 1971,1972). Within the framework of findings regarding the high time and cost investments in face-to-face contacts associated with certain high-level administrative functions and the large-city concentration of such functions, three aims were established: 1. To study present regional differences in the possibilities of maintaining direct face-to-face contacts. 2. To develop 'models of Sweden' to 'test' the contact possibilities of hypothetical city-system alternatives. 3. To use similarly generated 'models of Sweden' to study the impact of various governmental regional-policy possibilities, such as adjustment of linkages in the existing transportation system and the decentralisation of specific contact-intensive activities in the public sector. All three objectives have planning ramifications, given the government's general desire to curb the growth of the three leading metropolitan regions and its ongoing relocation of agencies to city-regions with populations ranging from approximately 65,000 to over 160,000 (Statens offentliga utredningar 1970: 29). In order to ascertain regional differences in the possibilities of maintaining direct face-to-face contacts a series of potential computations covering 1960, 1965 and 1970 were made for Sweden's 70 '^-regions', or leading urban areas. As an initial input to these and other computations twelve 70 by 70 matrices were constructed for each date. The first four matrices gave the actual travel times between each pair of places respectively via car, train, plane and the fastest possible combination. The second quartet of 'communication matrices' indicated, in a corresponding manner, the travel costs between each pair of places. The final four matrices yielded the number of visiting hours between 0900 and 1700 possible between each pair of places assuming a single-day round-trip starting no earlier than 0600 and ending no later than 2300 (Figure 6). Performance of the computations also required that the 'contact need of each of the 70 urban areas should be measured for each of the three study dates. This was done by determining the number of 'contact dependent' employees in each area and weighting them, function by function, according to the average contact frequency (contact hours per time period) for the country as a whole.

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1

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Θ 1970

45/

Fig. 7

The Swedish 'contact landscape' in 1970. Figures indicate relative contact potential values, with Stockholm equal to 100. After Törnqvist, Engström and Sahlberg (197 /) and Törnqvist {1972)

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It was proposed that an initial rough indication of the contact potential of each urban area i could be obtained as follows: Vi = Σ V J=1

K

j

(4)

where Vt was the contact potential for urban area i; Ttj was the number of single-day visiting hours possible at each urban area j after a round-trip from i; and K} was the number of contact-dependent employees in each urban area j, weighted according to contact hours per time period. In order to take account of the time and cost sacrifices incurred when despite a round-trip of varying length - Tu attained a maximum value of eight hours, variations of expression (4) were considered and the following adopted: Vi = Σ (Tu ~ Du) · Kj j=ι

(5)

where Du was the travel time between urban area i and each other urban area, and where the fraction TtJIDtJ replaced (T ti — DtJ) in those cases when (Tu — ϋυ) < 1. The resulting potential maps, or 'contact landscapes' (see, for example, Figure 7), including those based on expanded 86 by 86 matrices reporting contacts with 16 major European cities, clearly reveal major spatial variations in the possibilities of maintaining direct face-to-face contacts. Although with very few exceptions absolute potential values increased throughout the 1960-1970 period, the major regional discrepancies were little altered. (Those changes which had transpired were attributable to shifts in the distribution of contact-dependent employment and transportation-system improvements.) In 1970 Stockholm had the greatest contact potential. At the same time values in those urban areas located either in a broad belt extending from Stockholm to Göteborg or along the west coast were plainly superior to those of urban areas in the southeast and north. Furthermore, if international contacts are included, the superiority of Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö over other urban areas is magnified. The two sets of'models of Sweden' developed by Törnqvist to satisfy his remaining objectives were based on the assumption that within the next 10 to 20 years advances in telecommunications technology would not appreciably diminish the need for face-to-face exchange of complex and non-routine information. Each of the 'models of Sweden' themselves is actually no more than a hypothetical 'contact landscape' depicting a complex system where every change within a single urban region and

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every altered travel possibility has an impact on the entire studied system. The first set of five 'models' describes spatial variations in contact possibilities under a series of situations where the relative importance of each unit in the Swedish system of cities - in terms of contact-intensive employment - is somewhat different from the real-world conditions prevailing in 1970. The potential values for each 'model' were arrived at by retaining the 1970 transportation system (i.e., by employing the previously discussed 'communication matrices' for 1970), and by assigning an increase of 125,000 'contact-intensive' employees to various of the country's 70 leading urban areas. In one extreme case, Model I, the entire increase was assigned to the three largest centres: 50 per cent to Stockholm, 25 per cent to Göteborg and 25 per cent to Malmö. In Model II the three major centres also acquired the entire increase - 30 per cent to Stockholm, 30 per cent to Göteborg, and 40 per cent to Malmö because of its favourable location with respect to the rapidly expanding west European market. Model III was based upon the Ministry of the Interior's intention to bring about decentralisation through identifying 'large-city alternatives' and regional growth centres. Here a total of only 32 per cent of the increase was ascribed to Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö, while 20 per cent went to six nearby centres, 25 per cent to nine 'primary centres' with populations in excess of 100,000,13 per cent to eight other regional growth centres, and 10 per cent to 44 lesser urban areas. As could be expected the first model proved the most efficient (Figures 8 and 9): contact potentials increased in virtually all urban areas as a result of the orientation of their transport ties to the three cities obtaining all 125,000 new 'contact-intensive' employees. In an unanticipated fashion, the most striking results were obtained from Model III (Figure 9). There it was discovered that decentralisation, combined with the present transportation system, increases rather than decreases regional differences in contact potential. Moreover, most centres underwent a drop in contact potential despite the acquisition of new 'contact-intensive' employment. Only three smaller cities, all poorly integrated in the 1970 transport network, recorded any contact-potential increase vis-d-vis Model I. These unexpected consequences are attributable to the fact that the transport linkages of 1970 often required interregional movements between cities of 165,000 or less to be detoured via the three principal metropoli, especially Stockholm. Thus, it was shown that a decentralisation policy in the absence of any new transportation-system policy would be inefficient for Sweden as a whole.

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Fig. 8

100 km

The Swedish 'contact landscape' according to Model II. Figures indicate contact potential values, with each cityregion's Model I value equal to 100. Note that, with one exception, cityregions only attain a higher potential in the vicinity of Malmö. After Törnqvist, Engström and Sahlberg (igji) and Törnqvist {197s)

Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and research

331

Θ

84.

94

Fig. 9 The Swedish 'contact landscape' according to Model III. Figures indicate contact potential values, with each cityregion's Model I value equal to ioo. After Torn· qvist, Engström and Sahlberg (1971) and Törnqvist {1972) iookm

332

Allan R. Pred

Θ \138

165

Θ 231 153]

Ίδ1

^

126' 101

130 133 120

Fig. ίο

99

[96

108 I

108

η 20 1 24^

.106

0 100 km 1 ι ι ι 1I

The Swedish 'contact landscape' according to Model I H K , where the spatial distribution of 'contact intensive' employment increases is identical with Model I I I and where improved air services have been provided to 12 'large-city alternatives'. Figures indicate contact potential values, with each city-region's Model I value equal to 100. After Tömqvist, Engström and Sahlberg (igyi) and Törnqvist {1972)

Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and research

333

Θ

Fig. I i

>95,

100km

The Swedish 'contact landscape* according to Model I H K . Figures indicate contact potential values, with Stockholm equal to 100. After Törnqvist, Engström and Sahlberg (igyi) and Törnqvist {1972)

334

Allan R. Pred

Quite logically, the second set of models turned to the ramifications of altered transport conditions. It was acknowledged that Sweden's 'contact landscape' could be modified in an enormous variety of ways by changes in the transport network itself, faster travel times and reduced costs. However, Törnqvist confined himself to a situation where 12 newly identified 'large-city alternatives' were provided daily morning and evening air-connections directly with one another as well as with Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö. When this 'new' transportation system was combined with the decentralised employment increases of Model III, it was clearly demonstrated that virtually the entire system of cities experienced improved contact potential (Figure 10), and that there would be greater regional equality than that prevailing in 1970 (compare Figures 11 and 7). This finding is not unlikely to influence future government regional planning policies. Törnqvist's project has not terminated. It is proceeding both to evaluate the 'contact landscapes' resulting from a number of different transportation and decentralisation measures, and to consider the private and social economic ramifications of transportation system modifications. In one already completed study (Persson & Sahlberg, 1971) communication matrices and contact patterns are manipulated to assess the contact-cost consequences of the already adopted policy of decentralising certain government agencies. 3.2 Hägerstrand's 'time-geography'' model of society Throughout Hägerstrand's writings on migration (1947, 1949, 1950,1957, 1962) and diffusion (1951, 1952, 1953, 1965a, 1965b, 1965c, 1967a) there is a common underlying theme linking social communication networks and the changes in time and space jointly experienced by the individual and society as a whole. In recent years Hägerstrand has experienced a growing preoccupation with 'the fate of the individual human being in an increasingly complicated environment.' This combination of circumstances has led him and his research associates to embark upon an exciting and ambitious effort to devise a 'time-geography' model of society for the purposes of guiding urban and regional planning and locational policies in general (Hägerstrand, 1967d, 1970a, 1970b, 1970c, 1972; Carlstein & Märtensson, 1967; Carlstein, Lenntorp & Märtensson, 1968; Karlsson & Oscarsson, 1969; Öberg, 1969a; Carlstein, 1970; Lenntorp, 1970; Märtensson, 1970; Elgstedt & Hellquist, 1971; Wallin, 1972).

Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and research

335

The basic problem of the future, as seen by Hägerstrand, is how society should be organised and how any settlement pattern ought to be structured so as to ensure a 'livable' day-to-day existence for the individual. Or, given the time restrictions on human movement and the fact that every economic and non-economic human activity is space consuming, how ought the system of human activities to be organised spatially so as to provide 'substance' to that portion of each individual's environment which lies outside the realm of income acquisition. The general contours of Hägerstrand's basic problem are shaped by the fact that while the spacepacking of urbanisation allows time-savings for both the individual and society, it also creates interregional and intraregional social and economic inequalities as well as various forms of pollution. In order to assault the details of his broadly defined problem, Hägerstrand proposed the formulation of a model for describing society as a 'physical' system. The fundamental ideas and components of the initial version (1970a, 1970b) of this 'time-geographic' model merit a comparatively extensive paraphrased summary. Every individual or household is surrounded by an environmental structure, or a pattern of resource and activity alternatives (water, food, other goods, job opportunities, services, information, social contacts, leisure-time possibilities, etc.) that are necessary to satisfy needs and wants and which are unevenly distributed in time and space. The environmental structure is relative to the individual; its composition depends on his information and economic resources and his psychological makeup. The time-space movements of any individual confronted by a succession of environmental structures can be depicted graphically by compressing space to a two-dimensional surface and representing time along a vertical axis. Thus, in earning a living and filling his informational, social and recreational needs and wants each individual wanders over an individual path (Figure 12) which commences at a birth point and terminates at a death point. Depending on the analytic perspective desired, the individual path may be strictly defined either as a daily path or a life path through the use of time- and space-coordinates. (A complete time-geographic model of society would have to incorporate the 'paths' of material inputs, equipment and signals.) While participating in production, consumption and social activities the individual stops at physically permanent stations, or areas of unspecified diameter where movement is not observed over time. The station concept is quite flexible in terms of both its space and time scales. For instance, 'what from a life-path perspective can be regarded

336

Allan R. Pred

r Fig. 12

Some basic concepts of Hägerstrand's time-geographic model, r represents an area, large or small, and t designates time. An individual describes a path, which consists of visits at 'stations' (Si and Sz) and

movements (/) between them. After Hägerstrand (19700)

as a station - for example, city of residence - is dissolved into a group of stations from a daily-path perspective.' The environment with which the 'individual path comes in contact can be divided into two essential components.' First, there is the geographical space that a person can reach within a single day and still return to his residential starting point. This ''daily-life environment' has a 'theoretically determinable outer boundary, whose location depends on the capability of available transportation media to carry an individual back and forth within a specified time-interval.' The second component encompasses those places in which the individual might possibly choose to reside for longer periods of his life. In contrast, this life-perspective environment has 'no ineluctable outer boundary.' Although certain needs follow a more-or-less repeated rhythm within a predictable sequence of time-stays at one or more stations, most needs and wants are individual and their satisfaction usually requires movement from one station to another. However, the individual's freedom to move from station to station is often limited by many restrictions. Certain of

Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and research

337

these are imposed by physiological or physical necessity. Others are derived from private or public decisions and behavioural norms. Normally, the individual has limited means for influencing these varied restrictions, most of which fall into one of three general categories: capability constraints, coupling constraints, and authority constraints. Capability constraints limit the activities of the individual through both his own biological make-up and the tools he can command. Owing to his need of sleep, the individual's daily life is restricted to an island consisting of the area within which he can journey and still have time to return home without overnighting elsewhere. Within this island are a series of smaller constraint islands, or 'tubes', including the volume of area within arm's reach and the volume of area encompassed 'by the range of the voice and the eye as combined instruments of communication'. From a time-geographic point of view the daily-life 'tube', or 'environment', assumes the form of a 'prism' (Figure 13), and the 'lifeperspective environment' becomes a chain of such prisms. The time-space walls of the daily prism may vary from day to day depending upon the stations the individual stops at, but it is impossible for him either to appear outside its walls or to back-track within their confines. Every stay at a work, consumption or recreation station causes the range of the prism (or subprisms) to shrink in proportion to the length of stay there (Figure 14). Coupling constraints to a large degree govern the 'path' inside the daily prism. They 'define where, when and for how long, the individual has to join other individuals, tools, and materials in order to produce, consume and transact.' A grouping of several paths may be referred to as an 'activity bundle' (Figure 15). 'In the factory, men, machines and materials form bundles by which components are connected and disconnected. In the office similar bundles connect and disconnect information and channel messages. In the shop, the salesman and the customer form a bundle to transfer articles and in the classroom, students and teachers form a bundle to transfer information and ideas.' Many bundles follow predetermined time-tables which limit the individual's action freedom once he has chosen his occupation and work-place. This is so because most bundles tend to be closely interdependent. That is, an individual, 'bound to his home base, can participate only' in those random access bundles (for example, shops, banks, doctors' offices) and irregular interval bundles (for example, business meetings, social gatherings) 'which have both ends inside his daily prism and which are so located in space that he has time to move

338

Allan R. Pred

a and b are residential bases which cannot be left before a certain timepoint and which must be returned to by another time-point. The outer turning-points are determined by the most efficient transport means available. Only those points within the prism may be chosen for a visit. After Hägerstrand (1970a)

Fig. 14

The daily prism's maximum dimensions for an individual who has to spend time tn — tm at a place of work. A person with low movement capacity (a) has a more limited freedom of work-place choice than a person (b) with high capacity. If the work-place is situated at the maximum permitable distance there is no time left for anything but the journey to and from work. If the work-place (d) is chosen closer to the individual's residence than the maximum permitable distance, then his range is broken up into subprisms whose size increases as the timedistance between c and d decreases. The location of d determines the individual's freedom of movement during work-pauses. Those tasks which he has to carry out during week-days must fall within places and times encompassed by his free-time subprisms. After Hägerstrand (/970α)

Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and research

Fig. 1 5

The coupling of individual paths in activity bundles. Activities 1, 2 and 3 are assumed to have predetermined time-tables, with 1 fixed in space, while 2 and 3 can be localised more freely as agreed upon by the participants. 4 represents a telephone call, a type of coupling which does not require the individual to move, but does preclude other activity during the time which it transpires. After Hägerstrand (1970a)

Fig. 16

Conditions for the individual's choice of action sequences in a predetermined schema of activities (1, 2, 3, 4) of given duration and location. From home base a the choices lie between 1 and 3 on the one hand, or 2 on the other hand. Obviously, 3 begins after 2 ends, but the intervening time is too short to permit movement between both stations. 4 cannot be chosen because its end point lies beyond the daily prism in question. After Hägerstrand (1970a)

339

340

Allan R. Pred

from the end of one to the beginning of the following one' (Figure 16). 'In a tightly packed situation the individual's daily programme is highly vulnerable. Seemingly small adjustments in opening hours, publictransport departure times, or the location of a station can result in a long row of consequences. Until now, the principles for packing activity bundles in such a way that the individual's capacity restrictions are respected have been a virtually neglected problem area.' Authority constraints spring from the basic characteristics of what Hägerstrand terms 'domains'. A domain is defined as a 'time-space entity within which things and events are under the control of a given individual or a given group.' Domains are intended to protect artificial or natural resources, to restrict population density, and 'to form an efficient arrangement of bundles, ... In time-space, domains appear as cylinders the insides of which are either not accessible at all or are accessible only upon invitation or after some kind of payment, ceremony, or struggle.' Domains - as small as house or office segments or as large as entire countries - are related to one another hierarchically (Figure 17). 'Superior domains' on occasion can determine or alter the spatial extent of'subordinate domains'. Decision-makers in higher-order domains reserve the right to regulate conflicts between their lower-order domains. However, their most common function is to limit action possibilities within subordinate domains through general rules. Or, in the opposite case, they require the removal of restrictions regarding entrance to, or the shape of, activities within subordinate domains. If one progresses beyond the daily scale of 'authority constraints' shown in Figure 17, there are innumerable examples of situations where the exits of one domain are poorly coordinated with the entrances of other domains and therefore interfere with the individual's time-space path. (Qualified students are graduated once per year in a given small city, for example, but new local jobs are spread more evenly over the entire year. Many, therefore, are driven to migrate to a larger city.) 'The interpenetration of domains until now has not brought about any significant new thinking regarding either cost calculations in the planning of new installations, or the delimitation of the areas to be controlled by private and public administrative units. However, in the long run it is difficult to see how the situation can be mastered without a radical liberation of legal concepts and administrative traditions from a world of thought that has agrarian origins.'

Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and research

Fig. 17

341

The hierarchy of domains and its impact on individual paths. D represents a 'superior' domain (e.g., a municipality) and d a 'subordinate domain' (e.g., a shop or municipal service). Activity within d can to a certain degree be regulated by D. This might happen if service was restricted to persons resident in D (m but n o t p ) , or if only certain opening hours were maintained. Opening hours, designated tn — tm, determine the earliest and latest times at which m can be served. Decision-makers within D easily find themselves confronted by a conflict of goals: η and ο demand short and comfortably situated opening hours, but m desires long opening hours extending over that period of the day when he is free from work. After Hägerstrand {igyoa)

Capability, coupling and authority constraints interact in a variety of indirect and direct ways, sometimes more obviously than others. Obviously, for example, individuals with high incomes are better equipped than persons with low incomes to gain access to more of those domains which require some kind of payment at their borders. Or: 'It may well be that the low rate of participation in cultural activities by large groups of people has less to do with the lack of interest than the prohibitive time-space locations of dwelling, work, and cultural activities.' Additionally, it is often the case that the limited daily prism of children has very long-term life-path implications, since the quality of educational opportunities and nature of social contacts within that prism can greatly influence which domains are accessible in adulthood.

342

Allan R. Ρ red

defined in text. Dashed line indicates an unperformable task. After Hägerstrand (igjoa)

Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and research

343

In short, from a time-space perspective, there are two mutually interacting systems. 'One is the predominantly time-oriented warp of individual life-paths which make up the population of an area - a population with its own particular capacity restrictions in the matter of age, social ties, transportability and occupational competencies.' The second 'is the more space-oriented pattern of domains and activity bundles to which the individual may or may not have access in such a way as to meet his needs and wants.' In a sense, the population can be regarded as a traffic flow complete with jams, in a road network that facilitates progress to varying degrees. Unfortunately, the state of the social sciences is such that 'the system of domains is much better understood with respect to flows of goods and money than with respect to flows of people.' Some of the ways in which relative location and limited time resources affect the alternatives open to an individual within an 'environmental structure' can be illustrated by first assuming a homogeneous time-space, i.e., a time-space which is undisturbed by the irregularities usually created by public transportation time-tables and a sparse road network. In Figure 18 an imaginary individual has a base-point Β and non-working hours tn — tm at his disposal to carry out tasks, or errands, each of which in themselves requires time-duration T. The tasks can be performed at points U^ and U2, which have unlimited opening hours and are within the individual's prism. (The outer dimensions of that prism are determined by the maximum speed at which he can move and the assumption that time is only allocated to travel.) In case (a) the task alternatives are so located that there is only sufficient time for one to be visited. In case (b), by contrast, tasks at both Uv and U2 can be performed - despite an allocation of Τ to each - because they are more closely situated. In case (c) the homogeneous time-space assumption is dropped and the individual's path is confined by transportation time-tables and a grid of nodes and roads. Here Ui and U2 are located as in case (a), but now tasks at both are impractical because in either event accumulated waiting times dictate that Τ falls outside the prism unless t„ — tm is expanded at the expense of some other activity. When U1 and U2 are again placed more closely to Β (case (d)) it becomes possible to reach one but not both. Individual alternatives become even more restricted if U1 and U2 have limited opening hours (cases (e), (f), (g) and (h), which are otherwise similar with cases (a), (b), (c) and (d) respectively). In case (e) (Figure 19) tasks cannot be performed at either U^ and U2 owing to the fact that some portion of Τ stretches beyond their opening hours. The placement of U?

344

Allan R. Pred

file)

Uy

Β

u2

(f)

u2

f,

Ux

Β

U2

< » ο α Ε

φ «

®

V)

Τ 1—1-1—I—I Γ

ΤΤΤ

η

«a.

t> .δ υ υ Ο, C 4> α.

SJnoi^

sjnoq « ο f* CM I I I I I I I I I I I III

0. Measures for the improvement of the social and technical infrastructure have a negative influence on the environment. The effect of an expansion of the technical capital on the value of the social capital is not certain

388

Leo Η. Klaassen

α priori. The other effects are positive. Let us for one moment assume that /„, = 0, in other words that any impact of industrial production on the milieu is prohibited; then (9) becomes dN' dS

—

dT_

where |F'| = 1

+/tn/st

0 1

.ftn ~^~fsnfts

fts

1

1 TFT lF 1

ftsfst

fsn

0• fst

1 .

\dNAdSA

(12;

dTA_

-ftsfst

It will be found that: -dN'

1

dS

0

+

0-

+

+ +

dT _

-dNÄ dSA

(13)

dTA_

where again the sign of |F'| is not known a priori. If |F'| is assumed to be positive, which implies that the effect of measures relating to the environment on that environment becomes positive in (11), then this effect also becomes positive in (13) and all the other signs in (13) are known. The effect of an improvement of the infrastructure on the environment has then become neutral. This also applies to the measures designed to improve the technical capital. All the other measures have positive effects. 5. The above system may be related to a welfare function and a budgetary restriction. If we assume:

fsn

0 0

.ftn

fts

0

fnt =

fst

F

(14)

0_

then dN' dS

'dN' =

F

_dT

dS

\dNAl

+

dSA

dT_

dTA_

or Γ

-dN'

dNA dSA dTA

=

{ I - F )

dS dT_

(15)

389

The role of social equipment and environment 6. If the welfare function is ω = ω (N,S,T)

(16)

and the budgetary restriction Y = PNNa + psSA + ρ TTa

(17)

it follows (17) that dY=z

dNA dSA dTAj

IPXPSPT]

(18)

7. The maximum of ω in the case of (17) is achieved if dco = XdY

(19)

This follows from δω δΝ

J

δΝΑ

=

δΤΛ

ÖS* +

%

+

PTSN)

and similarly for S and T, which gives

[

δω δω δω~]

„_

_, (20

^ i s i f j " ^ ^ ^

>

The three equations are öco -frjy = λ(ρΝ -J- =

fsnPs -ftnPr) = λρχ -ftsPt) = λρΙ

öco — = λ(ρτ -fntPs

(21)

fstPs) = λρτ

8. To clarify this result, let us examine

öco

more closely.

öco

represents

the marginal social utility of an improvement of the environment, at constant values for S and T. In order to ascertain what use must be made of the instruments in order to obtain this result (Ν variable, but S and Τ constant), it must be assumed that dS = dT = 0.

390

Leo Η. Klaassen

Equation (15) then becomes Γ ^ ί

dSA ={I-F) dTA.

•dN'

0 0

—

-1

0

-/„,-

fsn . ftn

1 fst fts 1

-dN0 0

"1 =

•

fsn dN (22) . ftn.

or dNA -- dN dSA = —fsn dN dTA = —ftn dN

(23)

The substitution of (23) in (8) in fact gives dS = dT= 0 and dN = dNA. As the cost of dSA = psdSA and the cost of dTA = ptdTA, the cost of an improvement of the environment dN is equal to (pn — Psfsn — ptft„) dN, which is the cost calculated in (21). Öco 9. This result, which may be obtained by a similar process for - ^ r and δω -j—, may be interpreted as follows. oT

An improvement of the environment of the order of dN costs pNdN. This result may be obtained in the first place by a measure dNA. However, dNA not only affects N, but also S and T. The effect on S is -{-fsndN and the effect on Tis ftndT. The two effects are positive. This means that for the same amount pNdNA not only is a change in Ν obtained, but also a (favourable) effect elsewhere. The 'real' cost of dN is therefore lower. The maintenance of S and Γ implies that psfsndN less need be expended on S and prftndN less on Τ than if Ν had not been changed. The above are in fact accounting prices which measure the real sacrifices, both direct and indirect. In the case of an environmental policy, these sacrifices are less than the price of an improvement of the milieu itself; in the case of changes in the technico-economic capital, it may well be that the sacrifice is greater than pT, since /„, < 0. These relative preferences must be compared with the 'corrected' accounting prices rather than with the apparent prices. REFERENCES

Klaassen, L. H. (1972) Growth poles in economic theory and policy. In A. Kuklinski & R. Petrella (Eds.), Growth poles and regional policies. Paris-The Hague, Mouton (CEUCORS Ser., Vol. 3). (1973) Economic and social projects with environmental repercussions: A shadow project approach, Regional and Urban Economics, 3(1), 83-102.

HARVEY S. PERLOFF

2

A framework for dealing with the urban environment: Introductory statement*

The current interest in the quality of the urban environment is in large part a convergence of two other evolving public concerns. One is a concern with the quality of the natural environment - the quality of air, water, land, wilderness areas, and other resources. The other is a concern with the development of our urban communities - with all the matters coming under the rubric of more traditional city planning, but recently refocused to a special concern for the human beings in the city. The quality of life of all the people who are clustering into urban communities is clearly influenced by what happens to both the natural and the manmade environments in direct interrelationship with each other. Our capacity to deal effectively with the enormously complex problems of the urban environment - problems that become more complex with each passing year - will certainly be much increased if we can sharpen our concepts, clarify the nature of the problems, improve our measurement tools (including the measurement of alternative proposed solutions), and be inventive about new institutional arrangements to cope with new situations. The present paper merely points, in an introductory vein, to some conceptual and measurement issues that deserve attention within such a policy-oriented probing of the subject. We know from experience that it is difficult to make much progress in the realm of public policy and co-ordinated public-private action unless there is fairly substantial common ground of understanding and agreement as to just what the public interest is and why group action is called for. This is true whether we are talking about cleaning up the rivers, improving mass transportation, or eliminating slums (or, for that matter, * This paper owes a great deal to the valuable comments made by Irving Hoch on earlier drafts. I am also indebted to Stuart Chapin, Mancur Olson, and Benjamin H. Stevens for their suggestions.

392

Harvey S. Perloff

providing financial aid overseas). The importance of such common ground is particularly great where most proposed solutions involve governmental restraints on the use of private property and the making of profits, or the imposition of extra costs on private groups, or the expenditure of large sums of public money. In spite of the fact that some people see the United States as increasingly subject to creeping or galloping socialism, it takes quite a bit of doing to get the necessary public backing to enable a governmental agency to impose limitations on private activities.1 The rationale on which public action is based - and the breadth and depth of its acceptance - thus has a great deal to do with the ability of governments to carry out a coherent set of policies over a substantial period of time. This normally calls for rather broad social concepts which in their very essence point to the objectives involved, the nature of the problems or difficulties, and the kinds of solutions which would seem to follow logically. Concepts of this type are sometimes rather vague and at times might even have contradictory elements within them. They can also linger long after the situation has changed. But whatever the difficulties and dangers, such broad social concepts tend to play an important role in providing a foundation for public policy and action in given matters.2 In dealing with problems that are as numerous, diverse, and complex as those involved in the quality of the urban environment, there is a clear gain if we can have concepts that serve simultaneously a simplifying and unifying role, since they contribute to the development of a common ground of understanding. 1. A good example is the difficulty that state agencies have experienced in carrying out existing water pollution control legislation. The private interests in such a situation - the polluting industries - are specific and known (restrictions by a state pollution control agency can be very costly indeed for a specific firm), while the public interest is much more diffuse and vague. Not surprisingly, the energy that the state agency will normally exert will be more or less in direct proportion to the interest that the public, or representatives of the public, take in the matter. Matthew Holden, Jr. (1966) suggests, in an interesting monograph, that the whole matter of degree of application of state pollution legislation is the subject of negotiation between the agencies and the polluting industries. 2. In an earlier period, for example, one thinks of the role of the concept centering on 'the settlement of the West' encompassing notions of national stature, new opportunity, and the individual farmer as the backbone of democracy - all of which provided a base for governmental action 'in the general interest' over a substantial period of time. In a more recent period, we have observed the role that the concept of full employment has played as a basis for public action in coping with problems of the business cycle and economic growth.

A framework for dealing with the urban environment

393

I would like to suggest two concepts that can play such a simplifying and unifying role with regard to the quality of the urban environment. One is an extension of the meaning and scope of natural resources, to encompass what I have called 'new resources in an urban age'. The other is a view of the urban environment as a contained (but not closed), highly interrelated system (or subsystem) of natural and man-made elements in various mixes.

EXTENDING THE CONCEPT OF RESOURCES

For a very long time - in fact, for many centuries - natural resources have been thought of essentially as the elements of the natural environment needed for the production of certain basic commodities (farm, forestry, fishing, water, and mineral products) and, to a much lesser extent, of certain services (especially recreation and water transportation). My colleagues and I have described elsewhere (Perloff & Wingo, 1961; Perloff, Dunn, Lampard & Muth, 1960), the slowly changing meaning of natural resources ('the resources that matter') as the nation's economy has evolved from an agricultural to an industrial base and, more recently, as tertiary activities have grown in importance. The ever greater capacity for substitution among natural resource commodities (through developments in science and technology), the increasing elaboration of commodities so that the economic value of the 'first stage' is a small part of the total value added, and the fabulous growth in the demand for services have all joined to reduce the relative importance of natural resources commodities. The extent of this reduction is suggested by the fact that contribution of the so-called natural resources industries to GNP has declined from a third of the total in 1870 to some 11 per cent roughly a hundred years later (Potter & Christy, 1962). In the process, the concept of natural resources has been broadened somewhat. Thus, in recent decades, the notion of 'amenity resources' particularly as it reflects a special juxtaposition of climate, topography, coast and seashore, etc., especially attractive for the location of economic activities and family living - has been incorporated into the resources concept. Similarly, there have been increasing references to 'open space resources', i.e., open areas, particularly on the outskirts of cities, that offer breathing space and recreation possibilities for city residents. The time has arrived, however, to rethink the basic concept of natural

394

Harvey S. Perloff

resources in a more general way so that it has the greatest possible relevance to our own day and to the foreseeable future. At the core, the more traditional commodity resources and the newer environmental resources ultimately yield services to consumers; to use the jargon of economics, they enter the individual's utility function. However, the newer environmental resources are much more subject to externalities than are the commodity resources: the activities of all kinds of production and consumption units - whether family, business firm, or governmental - may generate either direct or indirect external effects on other units. This is the case when a firm emits wastes into the air or into streams, when one building cuts out the sunlight from other buildings, when planes roar over a residential section of the city, when a car adds to the congestion on a highway, or when a great new subdivision uses up a beautiful open area on the edge of town. In each case, costs or 'illfare' are imposed on others. Analysis of the newer resources thus forces us to face up to a basic defect in classical economics: the assumption that the utility functions of individual human beings are independent of one another. Actually, resource economics has been concerned with this issue for some time, but now the questions of externalities and of collective goods must be brought front and center. It has long been accepted that, in a socioeconomic sense, natural resources are those elements of the natural environment that have a use to man, and are therefore in demand, but whose supply falls short of the demand. Thus, as developments occur in science and technology, new resources (uranium, for instance) come continually into being; or existing resources greatly increase in value (for instance, with advances in construction, vertical transportation, and communication technology, airspace becomes more valuable), while others pass out of use. Where an element of the natural environment is in demand but supply is either plentiful for all or cannot readily be packaged for individual ownership and exchange, we have the case of a 'free good' which is not considered a natural resource in the socioeconomic meaning of the term.3 In almost all earlier economic texts, the classic case of a free good was fresh air. While in technical economic terms fresh air remains a free good, in a 3. A feature of free goods has been that they do not become property. Insofar as they have value, they are expected to be capitalized as a component of land value. 'Land' is thus viewed as a collection of fixed-to-a-place natural environmental features, including not only the geographic territory and soil, but also the associated water, climate, sunlight, air quality, and other amenity features.

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social accounting sense this is no longer the case in cities, where it entails large personal and group expenditures. If the meaning of natural resources is to be tied to the basic concept of features of the natural environment that are in relatively scarce supply, then it becomes necessary to invent a new category for those elements that, although they are in relatively scarce supply, still are not subject to individual ownership and exchange. This category would usefully serve to distinguish fresh air from, say, sunlight. The concept of free goods will clearly require rethinking. Because natural resources have been associated with basic commodities important in national production for so long, there has been a lag in general appreciation of the extent to which the scarce elements of the natural environment today are of a non-commodity character. It takes quite a wrench in thinking to get away from the commodity view of natural resources and to be able to include in the resources category such elements as relatively pure air and water, three-dimensional space (including airway space, radio-spectrum space, city land, and underground space) and valued amenity features of the natural environment. Yet, in our crowded urban age, these are resources that count. In trying to absorb the new resources elements into our conceptual scheme of things, and yet retain the major features of the more traditional interpretation of natural resources, there has been a tendency to associate these new elements almost exclusively with qualitative aspects of the environment and interpret this as essentially important for consumption rather than production. While the qualitative and consumption considerations certainly must loom large in any view of the newer resource elements, the quantitative and production aspects must also be seen as significant. A more complete view of the newer resource elements is provided most readily when we see them in terms of an extension of the basic natural resources concept - that is, when we accept an uninhibited interpretation of 'needed elements of the natural environment that are in relatively short supply'. This becomes particularly salient when we begin to grasp how different the whole production process is in the United States today compared to the past. Thus, less than 30 per cent of the labor force is engaged in commodity production and the proportion continues to decline.1 The service industries loom increasingly large. The recreation and education industries, for example, will soon pass farming in impor4. Even this figure is too high in a realistic sense. A substantial part of what the census puts in the commodity (or product) category actually involves service activities, ranging from R & D activities to paper work and promotional activities.

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tance in both labor force and GNP terms. Project these trends another generation and the picture of the economy has very little resemblance to the one that was pertinent when the early conservation movement in the United States first gathered momentum. All this is familiar and yet we have a hard time getting away from the more traditional picture of the 'productive plant' or the 'economic base' as represented largely by the farms, the mines, and the factories. These are certainly still very important, but the productive plant must now be seen increasingly as a series of interrelated networks of training, research, communication (which is at the heart of an automated plant), transportation, water and air use, and many other processes, together with their capital embodiments, established mainly in an urban setting. Productivity changes are increasingly influenced by the efficiency of the urban 'plant' or urban environment. In the past, when agriculture was at the center of the economic stage, both the quantity and quality of the land and water resources in an intimate interrelationship (as well as the know-how and vigor applied in the production processes) were important to the results obtained. Similarly, when industrialization took hold, the quantity and quality of mineral as well as forest and farm resources were of central importance. Today, even if in a different setting, quantitative as well as qualitative factors are significant (always in an inextricable mix): e.g., the volume of water available for drinking, cooling, and waste disposal; the volume of air for waste disposal; the space available for the movement of planes or trucks; the land available for the construction of efficient industrial plants and for parking; the space available for radio-spectrum communications; and many other similar elements are a critical part of the production picture. It is no trivial matter to establish the fact that the newer resource elements involve not only highly significant consumption and quality-ofliving aspects but also equally significant production considerations. For example, if public annoyance with air and water pollution and traffic congestion should result in severe restrictions on industrial location, extremely heavy costs in industrial waste disposal, or severe limitation on the use of trucks, we may indeed pay a high price in rising costs of production. This is not to suggest, of course, that restrictions may not be appropriate under certain conditions; what is important is that the policy decisions should be made with a full appreciation of the production as well as the consumption factors. For in dealing with matters of the city,

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we are dealing with the very foundations of the nation's productive plant. Once we begin to view features of urban land, air, and water, and space and amenity as significant natural resources, certain well-established principles, long associated with natural resources, come readily into play. These associations are not only significant intellectually (to the extent that meaningful classification is always important in the study of a subject), but also have important policy overtones. In the United States, the concept of natural resources carries certain strong connotations that influence the way in which we tend to approach an item that comes under the resources rubric. These connotations stem both from the impact made by the conservation movement, especially in the first third of this century, and from our experience with the use of our material (commodity) resources. They center on the well-established trinity of 'conservation, development, and use of natural resources' and on at least some appreciation of the requirements and limitations posed by ecological considerations. Thus, in the United States, the term natural resources sets up an image encompassing several principles: 1. Resources are part of the national heritage; they should not be used unthinkingly and selfishly by any one group at the expense of others or by any one generation at the expense of future generations. 2. The value that the nation can receive from its resources depends on its willingness to invest in the development of such resources, whether it is a matter of enriching the soil, harnessing river basins or harnessing the atom, or experimenting with the best means for desalinization of water. 3. To get the most value out of the nation's resources, development wherever possible and appropriate should seek to achieve multiple uses. The multiple-purpose development of river basins comes most readily to mind, but the same principle applies to the use of farm land at the outskirts of cities for open space and recreation as well as for agricultural output. 4. While man has demonstrated a remarkable capacity for manipulation of nature for his own ends, there are basic ecological principles he must understand and respect if he is to achieve his objectives over an extended period of time and without extremely high costs in real terms. Optimum returns can be obtained only through a knowledgeable and thoughtful mix of natural and man-made elements. These principles can be described in other ways, but the core elements would be similar. The main point to be made here is that such principles

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have direct and important relevance to the 'newer' non-commodity elements of the natural environment discussed here. Thus, by encompassing these 'newer' elements into the natural resources rubric we achieve a unifying and simplifying end which, as suggested earlier, is extremely important in laying a foundation for coherent and consistent public policy and administration. Thus, for example, under the first principle, the question can legitimately be raised as to whether certain resources - urban land, air, water, etc. - should be considered to be in the public domain5 (or at least whether private holding and use should be extensively controlled) in order to protect the more general interest. Reference to established legal and traditional principles with regard to the 'older' resources, while by no means binding, is instructive and helps to firm up the basis for public policy. Experience with law and policy touching on the more traditional resources, for example, can have important implications as we begin to make extensive use of air rights and underground or tunnel rights. Some legal scholars are beginning to make just this kind of extension; for example, with regard to air rights (Bernard, 1963). in a similar light, the well-established principle of the desirability of development of natural resources to maximize social returns over time comes readily into play in thinking about the newer resources. Thus, for example, even in the face of a severe congestion problem in airways over and near cities, the existing approach is largely limited to the regulation of private commercial airlines, with limited investment in safety features and runways at the major airports. When airspace is viewed as a critically important natural resource, the desirability of addressing the problem through a developmental approach is immediately visible. The form and character of future city building should be examined in terms of achieving objectives with regard to the airways, as well as other objectives. For example, some airspace might well be set aside for the use of small airplanes only, to create what might be called air-commuting zones; this would clearly call for the development of a full ground-and-air approach to city building, in sharp contrast to the present two-dimensional approach. The principle of multipurpose use of resources, which has evolved from, and has played such an important role in, river basin development, has great relevance for the urban-oriented resources. In fact, if sensibly 5. As Mason Gaffney has suggested for air.

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applied, it is likely to achieve greater importance here than with regard to the more traditional resources. Communication and frequent interchanges are critical for most functions carried out in the city. The friction of space (transportation cost) not only produces the clustering of people and activities - that is, relatively high density - but in fact suggests that multiple-purpose use of space is at its essence a cost-saving device. Seen in this light, city building today tends to be highly inefficient. The present basically two-dimensional rather than three-dimensional city planning simultaneously promotes an outmoded single-purpose view of urban space (regulated by a simple set of zoning principles) and permits a wild jumble of incompatible uses, particularly on city streets.6 Efficient and compatible multiple uses in a city require expert multiple-dimension planning. This is clearly a highly important area for additional thought and research. We urgently need principles that might guide decisions on when and how much multiple use is appropriate. Finally, the importance of careful attention to ecological considerations in 'conserving, developing, and using' urban-oriented resources should hardly need any special stress. It is evident that water and air can handle different amounts of pollution in different mixes under varying natural conditions; the capacity to make multiple use of these critically important resources is dependent in no small part on our knowledge of these natural conditions and the extent to which they can be modified. Builders who have constructed artificial lakes as space- and vista-providers often learn some quite interesting lessons about the ecology of still waters as algae emerge in abundance. The same is true of those who use or provide other amenity resources. A nice item along this line comes from Honolulu. It seems that Waikiki Beach may someday soon be scratched off the tourist's guide list because it is losing its sand. New shore-front hotels have been built where there are no beaches, so the hotel owners have created their own. These synthetic beaches have upset the normal action of the ocean tides and currents off Waikiki's shoreline so much that the ocean is reclaiming the sand. Beaches far from these hotels are also being denuded. (Incidently, sand costs about $6 a cubic yard in the islands.) City people may find it a little harder than their country cousins to grasp the importance of ecological principles, but it will be a little easier 6. As Lawrence Halprin (1963, p. 11) has put it: 'It is too much to ask of a street that it serve, at the same time, for pedestrians and traffic and parking and shopping and children's play, and also provide amenity and quiet to the inhabitants along its way'.

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to get the lessons across if they can first grasp the notion that natural resources are a significant part of their environment, not things way out there in the countryside. And once these lessons are learned, it might even be easier to talk publicly about externalities, and about costs imposed on others, and why new rules of the game may be needed if we are to achieve desirable urban environments.

THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT AS A SUBSYSTEM

At an earlier point, I suggested that two concepts could play a useful simplifying and unifying role in creating a foundation for coherent and effective public policy with regard to the urban environment: in addition to the extension of the 'natural resources' concept, there is need to see the urban environment as a contained highly interrelated system or subsystem. (Damage one part of it and other parts are immediately or soon affected; improve one part and other parts may be improved as a result.) In one sense, the 'system' concept is an extension of the ecological considerations discussed above, but because of the importance of manmade features in the urban environment, the man-made as well as the natural elements must be seen as part of the relational system. Good and bad results are normally obtained as a result of the special mix of the two and therefore the two must be seen in all of their complex interrelationships.7 All urban units, whether city, metropolis, or megalopolis, are an integral and intimate part of the national scheme of things. None of them functions in isolated glory. It is not surprising, therefore, that all urban features, including the urban environment, comprise open systems. Roads, trains, and planes tie one city to others; messages go out and come in from everywhere ; polluted water is carried from cities upstream to those downstream; polluted air is transported to distant areas; the size of the downtown of a given city will depend in no small part on how much of the nation's business is carried on there (thus, there is only one New York); urbanites vacation all over the country and the world; and so it goes. But the important consideration here is that the urban environment does comprise a meaningful and important system, signifying that, as with all systems, 7. This is true, of course, of the rural environment as well, but the sheer volume of man-made items in the urban setting is so great that the question of mix has a special relevance.

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the internal elements - in this case, the main features that characterize the urban environment - have greater and more intimate relations among themselves than they do with units or features outside the identified system. Geographers, economists, human ecologists, and other students of the city generally define the urban unit itself in terms of its nodal characteristics; that is, in terms of the quantity and intensity of the interactions. For example, they may define it in terms of the movement of persons and goods (while there is a great deal of movement between urban units, it does not compare to the daily movement back and forth within such units), in terms of the volume and frequency of messages sent, in terms of the extent of the local labor market, and the like. The physical areas covered by such intensity-of-flow items do not coincide exactly, but while the edges may be fuzzy, the urban community emerges as an identifiable nodal-type unit. The nodal characteristics, while physically presenting a seemingly chaotic picture in our metropolitan and megalopolitan regions, have a clear and understandable logic. This has been an important part of the field of study of urban economics. The importance of centrality of location of economic activities stems from a number of factors, key among which is the significant - and generally increasing - specialization of function in manufacturing and service industries. Such specialization calls for the shipping of goods to and from a large number of producers, each adding value through specialized activity and sending them on. Thus, clustering is an important cost-saving device. Most of the production activities, in turn, call for the assistance of many specialized services, including professional services. The services themselves are linked not only with manufacturing activities but among themselves, with forward and backward and lateral linkages of every imaginable type. Those who ship goods need ports, railheads, highways, and airports that are linked with other major centers, and these facilities are, of course, necessarily localized to achieve the economies of scale to which they are subject. The highly sophisticated manufacturing and service industries that are characteristic of our day require a wide and varied set of worker skills, and call for large labor pools. These are to be found only in population centers. Members of the skilled work force - including the managers who are in demand choose to work in areas that they find pleasant for family living, and industry adjusts to this preference. Since many such persons prefer to live in communities which provide a large number of services, facilities, and amenities, cities draw activities for this reason as

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well. Here, centrality is a factor, since the costlier services and facilities (for instance, a symphony hall) must draw on a large population, but with urban growth many of the services and facilities can be provided in subcenters. This, however, only means that although centrality is somewhat more complex than in an earlier day, the economies-of-scale factor still comes strongly into play. Taken together, all this adds up to the creation and maintenance of an elaborate system of people, capital, and movement with an inherent logic. Nodality is a physical as well as economic phenomenon. This is true of the key elements in the urban environment. Thus, we can usefully speak of an airshed and a watershed encompassing an urban community, each with a focal zone; we can demarcate the open spaces and amenity areas reachable within, say, a Sunday's drive (an open-space-recreation zone if you wish) on the basis of a 'gravity model'; we can separate the city into characteristic areas such as the central business district (CBD), inner city residential areas, suburbs (including high-income enclaves), and exurbia; we can demarcate the major transportation movements in nodal terms; and we can characterize work environments - downtown, in industrial estates, and scattered. Systemic elements of the urban environment are generated not only by interrelations of natural and man-made features, but by trade-offs between these features (as well as within them). For example, more airconditioning of homes and workplaces can serve as a substitute for more air pollution control (that is, controlling the micro- rather than the macroenvironment). Polluting plants can be moved to the edge of or beyond the local air- or watershed instead of providing waste removal features within these plants. More open space might be provided in town, or people may be encouraged (by good roads, etc.) to drive out to the natural open spaces at the edge of town.8 8. The trade-off notion is not always readily accepted. Thus, for example, a Washington Evening Star editorial (16 September, 1967) concerned with airplane noise, states: 'The Los Angeles Department of Airports has come up with an unusual solution to the problem of noise from jet aircraft ... Officials are planning to award contracts soon for soundproofing a dozen homes around International Airport and measuring the before-and-after level of decibels. The project, which will cost some $200,000, seems designed to prepare the way for soundproofing of many dwellings with the help of local government subsidy ... But one can't help wondering if this isn't exactly the kind of solution that the airlines would like best, since it involves no effort on their part. By the same reasoning, why not put a filter on every homeowner's faucets to cope with water pollution, or install universal air-conditioning to "solve" the question of polluted atmosphere?' (Continued on p. 403)

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Urbanites are not accustomed to thinking of their environment as a contained, highly interrelated system. Thus, they will complain loudly about air pollution conditions and yet vote for a mayor who promises to bring new manufacturing plants into town and to build superhighways right into the heart of the city. They will complain about the rapid loss of open space and yet vote for severe restrictions on the height of apartment and office buildings, for large-lot zoning, and for building highways through parks in order to reduce their cost. They will decry the loss of amenity resources nearby and yet permit private building right up to the beach edge and the pollution of nearby lakes. Of course, all this is not simply a matter of overlooking an important concept or a lack of understanding of systems analysis. Diverse interests are involved (different people are affected differently by these seemingly contradictory policies) and there are profits to be made, costs to be avoided, and elections to be won. But the point still needs to be made that the creation of a common ground of understanding of what is involved in working towards a desirable urban environment is essential for the building of a foundation for sensible, coherent public policy concerned more with a broad range of interests than with powerful but limited special interests.

ELEMENTS WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM

If we are to develop an understanding of the urban-environment system, it will be necessary as a starting point to identify the key elements involved; that is, those elements whose relationships and interactions define and give special character to the system. This is a complex matter and can probably be done at various levels and in various frameworks. As a starting point and at a very general level, it is helpful, in order to sharpen the contrast between open and closed systems, to think of the key environmental elements involved in collective-living, high-density situa(Continued from p. 402)

Why not indeed? The editorial writer has overlooked the fact that most homes in the United States are individually heated while group heating is practiced in Sweden and elsewhere and that many other services have gone one way or the other over the years (including movie watching). The Los Angeles Department of Airports is indeed to be congratulated for carrying out a sensible experiment. I would hope that they are simultaneously looking into another alternative - that of location and relocation policy to cope with the noise problem - as well as into the question of the relative cost of building quieter planes.

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tions of an essentially closed character so as to identify similarities and differences with a more open situation of the type we are discussing. At a very simple level, one thinks of the cavedweller situation (which evidently comprised the human environment for a certain group of early, man over a very long period of time, possibly a million years). Key elements in such cave environments evidently were the maintenance of relatively pure air (smoke pollution must have been a serious problem); acquiring and storing drinkable water; provisions for warmth and general bodily comfort; and division of space between family living quarters, work activities, recreation, and other clan activities. (Development of different types of enclosures for various groups and activities was related to technology; for example, the use of animal skins as cave dividers.) Environmental aesthetics were evidently not neglected, as suggested by the numerous cave paintings which have been found. Essentially the same elements are identifiable when we think of other relatively closed environmental systems, such as that of the present day submarine, bathysphere, and space capsule.9 At the other extreme of complexity from the old cave environment, diving into the wild blue yonder, are the environmental elements involved in a space satellite of the far distant future. In Beyond tomorrow (1965), D. M. Cole (a senior space scientist at General Electric's Space Technology Center) gives some attention to the environmental factors. His vision of 'a new home among the stars' accommodates between 10,000 to one million people in a hollow asteroid, possibly 20 miles long, 10 miles in diameter. Such colonies, Cole suggests, could cruise space in their self-powered, closed cycle worlds by using new forms of macro-ecological relations and by developing flexible and extremely attractive interior environmental conditions. Here, too, air, water, weather conditioning, sunlight, space, and amenity features are pictured as key elements of the environment. The closed-system view not only helps to highlight the basic elements that are essential for man's survival and comfort, but also suggests the many varieties of collective-living, high-density environments that are conceivable at different levels of technological development and different kinds of socioeconomic patterning. There is a strong tendency in our cities today to accept existing forms and relationships as given, merely because

9. A lively and informative treatment of the problems and possibilities in the realm of closed ecological systems is provided in '2000+', the February 1967 issue of Architectural Design, John MacHale, Guest Editor.

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they are familiar. We simply do not think about these matters unless some problem emerges which makes us uncomfortable, such as excessive air pollution or noise. Actually, with vast opportunities for achieving varied and attractive urban environments, the key elements of the environment and the ways in which they are interrelated, or can be made to interrelate, should be subjects of continuing study and private as well as public concern. The existing uses made of urban and nearby land; of threedimensional space; of air and water; of structures for living, working, and collective activities; of climatic elements; and of amenity features of the environment must be recorded in meaningful ways, so that the interrelationships and interactions can be highlighted as a base for decisions that will influence the environment in desired directions. While discussing elements of the environment, it is well to note also that for the greatest part such elements do not interact only at the scale of the urban unit as a whole - say, the metropolis - but are found in different intensities and in special mixes at smaller scales. Thus, air and water quality (or degrees of pollution) are different in different parts of the metropolis (air pollution, for example, will be more intense at congested transportation points or in parts of the metropolis dominated by manufacturing industry). Similarly, availability (nearness) of open space is different for every section of the urban unit; the condition of structures and their spacing will be different in each neighborhood; and the condition of the water, sewerage, and waste disposal facilities will differ from section to section. A careful recording of these differences and of the total impact of the special mixes to be found in each identifiable section of the urban unit is critical for sound policy making. The issue is generally not how some hypothetical average individual is faring, but the quality of the environment within which different real groups are living, working, and moving about. Information on distribution of qualitative levels should not be overlooked. This can be summed up by saying that the reality of the slum, as well as of the magnificent high-income enclaves, must be recognized in any meaningful approach to the problems of the urban environment. Differentiation must not only be provided in geographic terms, but also in terms of the various groups making up the urban society. Different groups react differently to various aspects of the environment and also make different contributions to the environment or detract from it. This is seen most readily when the question of crowding in the urban environment is considered. Edward T. Hall (1966), a student of the subject,

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has pointed out: 'The degree to which peoples are sensorially involved with each other, and how they use time, determines not only at what point they are crowded but the methods for relieving crowding as well. Puerto Ricans and Negroes have a much higher involvement ratio than New Englanders and Americans of German or Scandinavian stock. Highly involved people apparently require higher densities than less involved people, and they may also require more protection or screening from outsiders. It is absolutely essential that we learn more about how to compute the maximum, minimum, and optimum density of the different cultural enclaves that make up our cities.' Hall suggests that the various ways in which different groups handle time is reflected in their need for space. 'Monochronic' and 'polychronic' styles of time-use are characteristic of what he calls low-involvement and high-involvement groups and this in turn influences their relative degree of need to separate activities in space. Beyond group characteristics, there are important individual differences that must also be taken into account.

THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT AND THE ENVIRONMENT OF URBANITES

It has been noted that the urban environmental system is an open one. It is open in various ways. Thus, instead of ending discernibly at one line, the built-up relatively dense sector of a city or metropolitan region fades gradually out into the countryside. City and countryside intermingle in a rather wide belt. Villages, towns, and farms provide a somewhat different setting for living and working than does the more built-up portion: open space is hardly in scarce supply, travel distances tend to be longer, water and sewerage facilities are often not tied in to the core systems. Yet the people living in such zones are largely urbanites (or farmers much concerned with the question of the appropriate time to sell their land) and these zones are mainly areas for future building. Roads and utility lines built here, open space set aside, and other activities (or lack of them) will influence the future urban environment in important ways. The system is also open, as suggested earlier, in its direct transportation and communication linkages with other urban centers. This deserves particular attention because of the tendency for 'string' construction along highways in many parts of the country to provide a very special - and in many cases aesthetically horrendous - urban environment. Often such

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string developments are found in the outer zone mentioned above and are thus an integral part of the general exurban picture. Finally, the system is open in the sense that urbanites living within the built-up, high-density areas - that is, within the core urban environment - spend greater or lesser periods of time away from that environment, largely for recreation purposes, and particularly for vacations. Some have vacation homes in recreation environments. In this regard, amenity resources achieve particular significance. The quality of these resources and their closeness to urban centers (which has a great deal to do with frequency of visits) thus is part of the 'environment of urbanites' if not part of the urban environment itself. These resources, of course, also comprise part of the environment of rural populations, but for present purposes we are limiting attention to the urban population. The problems are clearly different for the rural population. The value of recognizing these factors in any full-bodied treatment of environmental issues suggests that we have to be concerned not only with spatial elements - that is, the extent of the urban environment that is being described, analyzed, or controlled by public policy and action but also with function, time, and intensity dimensions. We want to know how much time during the week, month, or year various groups in the population are 'exposed' to the different kinds of environments and, if possible, the intensity of the exposure. These matters will be touched upon at a later point.

POLICY MEASURES AND A DECISION FRAMEWORK

It seems evident that the quality of the urban environment - as well as the environment for urbanites - will increasingly be a matter for public concern. The caliber of governmental policy and action with regard to environmental issues can be expected to be improved as our knowledge of the environment increases and as we develop better tools for decision making. It therefore seems appropriate to devote major attention to the question of reporting on the environment and on means for evaluating public action with regard to the environment. Reporting on and evaluating the urban environment presents different problems from those presented by the more traditional commodity natural resources. While in the latter case there are usually some externalities to be considered and complex systemic interrelational elements to be dealt

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with, these features are so much greater in the case of the urban environment that it is a matter of kind more than of degree. The interrelationships among the elements of the environmental system and the externalities are so central in the scheme of things that we must come to grips with the question of how these can be highlighted meaningfully. This underlines the importance of a useful reporting and analytical framework. The problem of creating such a framework is hardly new. City planners have been struggling with the issue for over half a century. However, city planning has emphasized - almost to the exclusion of other considerations - past, present, and future land uses. Other urban natural resources (air and water, for example) have rarely received major attention; this is true also for systemic elements within the urban environment, such as the multiple relationships between land use and man-made structures. We can probably go a substantial distance toward providing a useful reporting-and-evaluation framework through the use of what have come to be known as social indicators and social accounts. I have found particularly stimulating the proposal for an annual Social Report of the President, parallel to the Economic Report, but concerned with a different set of issues, including the quality-of-the-environment question. A system of reporting which would fulfill the requirements of such an annual report would have to characterize changes in environmental quality through the use of a few particularly pertinent measures, and to evaluate the results obtained through various public and private efforts to improve the environment. A national reporting scheme would necessarily have to be quite broad - and essentially limited - in scope. It should, logically, be supplemented by reporting on a local basis, that is, by state-of-the-region reports, which can provide a useful foundation for policy making and •governmental action at the local and metropolitan scale. The problem of reporting at the national level would be much eased if the appropriate information was available for all the urban units within the nation. What might such a system of reporting appropriately contain?10 First, it is necessary to decide just how much is to be included under the environmental rubric. It is evident, at one extreme, that it cannot be 10. The materials presented here are based on a 'Preliminary Report on Environment' which I prepared for the Panel on Social Indicators of the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (May 1967) with the help of Joseph L. Fisher and Robert Gold. I want to acknowledge the many useful suggestions I have received on the earlier report from my colleagues, Irving Hoch, Lowdon Wingo, and Blair Bower, which I have incorporated in the present statement, as well as from Fisher and Gold.

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limited merely to physical (including natural) factors if the information is to provide a useful foundation for decision making. At the other extreme, it cannot usefully cover all matters that at one time or another are referred to as 'environmental'. The latter would bring in just about everything. The term environment is often used not only to cover the natural and man-made surroundings but also much of the social-political-economic ambience - i.e., frequent references are made to 'a democratic environment', 'a competitive environment', etc. These types of issues can be covered more appropriately under other headings in either a Social Report of the President or a state-of-the-region report at the local level, say, with regard to a discussion of 'equality of opportunity' or under 'political participation'. Any delimiting of a field, even for reporting purposes, involves all sorts of cultural (including language) and political considerations, particularly the explicit and implicit public objectives or goals that are currently dominant. For present purposes - mainly to introduce some ideas for discussion in a preliminary way - it may be appropriate to start with an attempt to look at the more important elements that directly influence conditions of living and working of the urban population and particularly where they influence the health, comfort, safety, and aesthetic satisfaction of individuals. This would suggest limiting coverage to those aspects that are necessary to differentiate localized situations of some importance to the lives of the people; for example, those aspects that are essential to describe either slum conditions in our cities or the relative purity of the air within given metropolitan regions, but not those features that are common for people everywhere, the host of essentially national economic, social, cultural, and political factors in the quality of American life. The differentiation of localized situations would have to proceed at various levels to distinguish between significantly different settings. Thus, as already suggested, it would be necessary to distinguish between metropolitan and non-metropolitan (basically, small town) settings; between built-up and low-density zones, residential and non-residential areas; and among the various characteristic types of communities, such as slum areas, middle-class areas, and the like.

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ELEMENTS TO BE COVERED

It is proposed that the following items be included under the environmental rubric for metropolitan areas:11 The natural

environment

1. The airshed (to describe relative purity of air and air pollution); 2. The watershed (to cover water supply and water pollution); 3. The open space-recreation 'shed' (to cover conditions within an area that can be reached on a one-day recreation trip); 4. Quiet-and-noise zones (to describe relative degree and time-span of noise exposure); 5. Olfactory zones (to describe relative degree and time-span of exposure to unpleasant smells); 6. 'Micro-climate' zones (including uncomfortable heat, wind blockage, etc.)12 7. Sunlight exposure (relative condition of buildings with regard to good, bad, or indifferent sunlight exposure). The spatial

environment

While basically part of the natural environment, it differs enough from the items under 'The Natural Environment' to deserve special treatment. This category would attempt to characterize the use of underground space,13 land, and overground space in terms of standards of efficient use (e.g., relative congestion and duration of what might be called low-quality conditions), changes in values of space, and degree of allocation of space in terms of relative values (thus, amount of subsidy would be highlighted).14 11. The metropolitan region is highlighted here because it calls for the most extensive coverage. 12. Because of traditional usage, 'micro' is used here, although on a different scale from that employed in the case of home and work environments, where the term is also employed. 13. It is reported (APWRF, 1967, p. 7) that in about a hundred cities in the U.S.S.R., 35 per cent or more of the investment in structures is in the portion that lies underground. 14. Urban ground and near-ground spaces cover a remarkable (and fascinating) variety, including: streets of various kinds; alleys; freeways; minor and major plazas; gardens; playgrounds; neighborhood, central, and regional parks; waterfronts; rooftops ; open parking lots; etc. etc.

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The transportation-utilities environment These have the characteristic of tying the metropolitan area into an integrated unit through a series of superimposed networks (or what might be called the skeletal features of the region). They tie directly into the natural environment through those utilities that provide water supply and provide for sewerage and solid waste disposal; also as they use underground, land, and overground resources. The latter is additionally significant in the case of electric and gas utilities, as well as telephone utilities. Aesthetic considerations with regard to such facilities have come increasingly to the fore. The transportation network is particularly important for the urban environment. Accessibility, including relative accessibility to amenity resources, is a basic consideration in many aspects of the environment. The reporting should cover such items as availability of mass transit and other forms of transportation and the conditions surrounding movement in general, including considerations of trip-time, congestion, safety, and stress. The community-or-neighborhood environment This item would cover the main environmental elements within markedly differentiated communities or neighborhoods - for example, slum areas, other central city areas, and suburban and exurban areas. The term community or neighborhood here is intended simply to imply the existence of distinguishable common characteristics of physical elements, together with important interactions between people and physical environment within a contiguous geographic area by the fact of juxtaposition and 'mix'. At the same time, in order to provide adequate coverage of public service and facility conditions, it would be desirable not to restrict the areas too narrowly in geographic terms. The services environment is necessarily variable (since different services extend over different zones) so that in defining areas some fuzziness at the edges might well be appropriate. The microenvironments The family or household shelter and the workplace are the settings for the individual's most intimate social relations as well as for his most direct and frequent contacts with the man-made physical environment.

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The framework that is thus provided can be described as one of several environmental 'envelopes' (although the term should not be taken too literally) through which the quality of the urban environment can be characterized: the large natural resources and space-use envelope, the community-neighborhood envelope, and the home and work microenvelope, all tied together in various ways and literally tied together through the transportation-utilities set of networks. Each of these is characterized by different underlying conditions, the first through the special role of urban-oriented natural resources, the second by the interrelations of group behavior patterns and these with the man-made physical environment, and the third - the microenvironment - by the primacy and intimacy of social relationships as well as by the special needs and characteristics of a limited group (the household in one case, and employees of specific workplaces in the other). The importance of the microenvironment is attested to by the fact that some 68 per cent of the total time of urban adults, on the average, is spent at home. The figure is 76 per cent for the total urban population.16 Of the remaining time, almost two-thirds is spent at work.

INDICATORS, ACCOUNTS, AND POLICY MEASURES

A broad framework for what I would call a system of 'policy measures for the environment' is suggested here (see Table 1). First, let me make some comments about the terms used. 'Indicator' is normally used to describe the condition of a single element, factor, or the like, which is part of a complex interrelated system (employment, cost of living, production, etc., in the case of economic indicators). It is evident that in the case of the urban environment equally revealing indicators can be provided to describe existing conditions - say, with regard to air pollution, quality of housing, amount of open space available, etc. 'Accounts', on the other hand, refer to comprehensive systems of data characterized by a balance between inputs and outputs or inflows and outflows (such as national income accounts, input-output accounts, or flow-of-funds accounts) or providing the value of the total stock of various items in a total system, as in the case of wealth accounts. We have a long 15. Taken from a time budget study of forty-four U.S. cities. See Alexander Szalai (1966).

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way to go before we are able to work out comprehensive social accounts for the environment. However, as noted at a number of points, it is important to provide a broad picture of the urban environment because it is essential to be able to highlight interrelationships and externalities. What seems possible at the present time is the provision of rather comprehensive 'policy measures' or 'decision measures' that, while not fully comprehensive or characterized by balanced two-way flows, could nevertheless serve a unifying purpose in reporting on the environment specifically as an aid to governmental policy decisions. These must include both stock and flow items and, because of the focus on public policy, emphasize outlays and investment and the returns on these. Table 1 outlines the main elements of the data framework proposed. The first task involved would be to work out meaningful 'indicators of present condition' (column 1) for each of the items listed. These would reflect present goals and standards (both legislative and informal) with the data attempting to indicate where we stand with regard to these goals and standards. The establishment of standards is no mean task. It would require a good bit of research as well as a sensitive reading of the standards that have the broadest and most strongly-held acceptance. This clearly is an evolving task. In the first instance, the best standards at hand would be employed. At the same time, it would be useful to highlight the weaknesses of existing standards, particularly where too narrow an interpretation of objectives to be achieved could be misleading, and to explore the special characteristic of measures within the different categories. As Joseph Fisher has pointed out (in his chapter in the 'Preliminary Report on Environment' for the Panel on Social Indicators of the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare), the quality characteristics of the environment tend, to a considerable extent, to be subjective, with considerable variation in the views of different individuals. Further, air pollution and recreation opportunities, for example, affect different individuals quite differently, both physiologically and psychologically. Another point deserves attention: The various aspects of the natural environment are interrelated in numerous and sometimes confusing ways. One way of abating industrial air pollution is by filtering and washing smoke to prevent contaminants from going into the atmosphere, and instead sluicing them out into the water courses, thereby adding to water pollution. The interrelations extend beyond the realm of natural resources. For example, one way of reducing pollution from automobiles would be to discourage or prohibit certain uses, but this would greatly affect

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transportation and might also drastically alter the microenvironment in which people live and work. Just as the various kinds of environmental pollution tend to be interconnected, so also the measures for abating and controlling them tend to be interconnected. And one should be cautious about interpreting a favorable movement over time in an indicator of air pollution lest it is accompanied by an equal or greater movement in the opposite direction in an indicator of water pollution. Concern for arriving at some overall indicator of environmental quality in which the various interrelations and trade-offs can be included leads one toward the concept of net social benefit - that is, total (or incremental) social benefit less social cost. This concept of net social benefit can be applied to a particular kind of environmental disturbance or it can be thought of in connection with a large range of environmental effects. The social indicators alone can provide only a limited part of the story. If we are looking ultimately to policy, it would be essential to get a picture also of the costs of our shortfalls, as well as the costs and anticipated benefits of actually fulfilling existing goals and standards, or higher-level goals and standards. But this calls for more than indicators; here we would have to put policy measures to work. The key categories that might be employed are suggested in Table 1. Thus, the reporting system proposed would set out, as a second item, 'costs of environmental maintenance at present levels' (column 2), broken down by private and public costs wherever possible. In almost every instance, substantial sums are already being spent in order to maintain existing environmental conditions - no matter how unsatisfactory. This is true of the present expenditures involved in keeping down air and water pollution; it is also true of the costs involved in trying to create a relatively safe street environment and transportation environment. The setting down of current cost figures would provide a rough measure of the relative amount of effort directed at any one of the items of interest in the environment. It would raise issues about the priorities attached to the various subjects and it would also raise questions such as whether we are getting our money's worth. There is a tendency in most discussions of the environment to think only in terms of the additional expenditures necessary to achieve somewhat higher levels. This can be misleading, certainly as regards the relative emphasis to be given to different activities. As in the other major items to be covered, breakdowns in terms of the various sections of a metropolitan region (slums, suburbs, etc.), would provide a useful picture of the relative attention being given to the various parts of the region.

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Column 3 in the proposed reporting system calls for estimates of the costs - or other adverse consequences - of environmental abuses and shortfalls. In this, an attempt would be made, not only to obtain rough estimates of such items as the costs resulting from air pollution, but also of inadequate public services. Such costs would be recorded in dollar terms wherever possible, even if some heroic assumptions have to be made. In cases where dollar costs are simply not to be had, sharply focused descriptions or indicators of a non-cost nature would be useful.16 Here, again, the specification of the standards to be achieved would be essential, particularly in measuring shortfalls. It is necessary to establish a wide variety of fairly narrow and specific standards - e.g., for housing quality - as well as broader, more aggregative goals, such as a satisfactory home and community environment. Not only must standards be quite specific in the case of the environment, but they are also inevitably rather variable, that is, they often have to cover a wide range. Thus, it is possible to set up standards for various degrees of 'purity' in the case of air and water and to measure the cost of achieving such standards as well as the cost of falling short of their achievement. The same is true in the case of housing standards, standards of congestion, and many other features that might be included under the environmental rubric. To round out the picture, then, it would be necessary to provide estimates of costs of achieving standards at various levels (column 4). Thus, the whole system is built on a recognition of the fact that the quality of the environment is judged by the values of the society, that different levels of achievement are possible, that each of these has cost features attached - both in achieving the given levels and in falling short of achieving them - and that benefits are also to be derived from improvements in the environment. Unfortunately, these benefits are very much harder to define. In some cases they can be fairly firm, particularly when the benefit amounts to an avoidance of the cost of abuse or shortfall. But in other cases they are much more general. Over time, however, it might be increasingly possible to provide benefit estimates. Even short of such figures, it would be possible to describe in general terms the benefits of achieving specified standards and, thereby, to provide a better basis for public judgment.

16. A sense of how much information can be conveyed by focused description is provided by the statements in the Supreme Court 1954 school decision on the losses attendant on a 'separate-but-equaP education system.

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At a later stage it might be possible to introduce additional types of indicators or other measures to round out the picture and provide a better basis for evaluating the present and alternative futures. One of these would be a 'time budget' or measure of time expenditures, which would provide a picture of the time spent in major activities by various categories of individuals, and thus, in a general way, suggest the relative importance of different kinds of environments and the uses made of them. Such a measure, together with direct measures of intensity of use of services and facilities as well as of homes, workplaces, and transportation, would provide the basis for measurement of relative 'exposure' and the development of risk ratios. This, for example, would tend to show the tremendous importance of the street in poor neighborhoods, the extent to which some public facilities are overutilized and others underutilized, and the relative exposure of people to various areas of the city (thus emphasizing, for example, the relatively great importance of small intown open spaces such as squares and school playgrounds - as compared to vast open spaces far beyond the reach of most people). An intensity index could be a very powerful tool for decision making in some of the environmental items. Differentiation in the 'policy measures' not only needs to be made with regard to various classes of communities within a metropolis but also with regard to various age groups, income groups, and racial and ethnic groups. Wherever pertinent, the indices or measures should be in terms of age, income, and race and ethnic categories as in the educationalcultural environment, in health, and in recreation. The indicators of present conditions should, wherever possible, provide information on three kinds of items: (1) the average situation in the various communities for the key items, as well as group distribution around the average; (2) improvement or deterioration over time, and (3) extreme situations that deserve special attention. In general, treatment of extreme situations is necessary so that significant special problems are not overlooked: without such items any reporting scheme would tend to be much too bland. If the scheme is to serve policy and action purposes realistically, a description of community stresses when the situation is explosive or of pollution conditions when health is directly threatened should not be lost in a mere deluge of data on averages.

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FINAL NOTE

The information framework proposed here is essentially a decisionmaking 'model', highlighting the present state of affairs, what is deemed good and bad about it, the costs we suffer as a result of the shortcomings, and what is needed to bring the situation up to higher standards. The implementation of such a model would clearly require substantial effort but, when operational, it would provide an extremely valuable decisionmaking tool. It has the clear advantage of being close to policy and operations both in terms of its inputs and outputs; that is, on the one side, administrative or operating data could be used as the main sources of information while, on the other, it would provide a basis for policy decisions in a direct and meaningful framework. It is taken as an article of faith that governmental policy and action will be improved as knowledge about the urban environment increases and alternative possibilities can be reviewed in a broad and meaningful decision framework.

REFERENCES

American Public Works Association Research Foundation (APWRF) (1967) Better utilization of urban space. Chicago, June. Bernard, Μ. M. (1963) Airspace in urban development: Emergent concepts. Urban Land Institute, Technical Bulletin 46, July. Cole, D. M. (1965) Beyond tomorrow. Amherst Press. Hall, Ε. T. (1966) The hidden dimension. Doubleday. Halprin, L. (1963) Cities. Reinhold. Holden, Μ., Jr. (1966) Pollution control as a bargaining process: An essay on regulatory decision-making. Cornell University Water Resources Center Publication No. 9, October. Perloff, H. S., Dunn, E. S., Jr., Lampard, Ε. E., & Muth, R. F. (1960) Regions, resources, and economic growth. The Johns Hopkins Press. , & Wingo, L., Jr. (1961) Natural resource endowment and regional economic growth. In Joseph J. Spengler (Ed.), Natural resources and economic growth. Resources for the Future. Pp. 191-212. Potter, N., & Christy, F. T., Jr. (1962) Trends in natural resource commodities: Statistics of prices, output, consumption, foreign trade, and employment in the United States, 1870-1957. The Johns Hopkins Press for Resources for the Future. Szalai, A. (1966) Multinational comparative social research, American Behavioral Scientist, 10 (4), December.

CHARLES L. LEVEN

3

The urban-regional dimension in regional planning research

The adjectives 'urban' and 'regional' have blossomed forth as descriptive prefixes for a multitude of programs and a wide variety of people in the research and policy planning world. In the past decade or more Centers and Institutes for urban and regional studies have been formed as important units in major universities and in national and international as well as regional organizations. In addition to research activities, new courses and fields of study also have been established (for example, see University Urban Research Centers 1971-1972). In part this has come about through changes in programs in traditional disciplines - urban and regional economics, for example, is now widely recognized as a field of concentration; also, even within urban and regional economies itself, sub-disciplines like land use and transportation analysis and interregional trade theory have developed. In part, it has come about through the establishment of entirely new programs, like degree programs in Urban Affairs, or a law degree with a specialization in Urban Studies, or a Ph.D. degree in a relatively new field called Regional Science and even within doctoral programs in City Planning specialized programs for 'social policy planning' have emerged.1 Perhaps even more important than the new operating units and new educational programs, is the emergence of new kinds of academic personalities with titles and designations that did not exist 10 or 20 years ago. Suddenly we find people who call themselves regional scientists, quantitative geographers, urban and regional economists, urban renewal architects, and even professors of urban affairs. This brief essay will 1. For an indication of the scope of U.S. and Canadian programs see Education and Career Information ... (1973).

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attempt to sketch some of the highlights of why this phenomenon has come about so suddenly, and something about how and why it has developed. It should be pointed out that in one sense a concern with the urban and regional dimension of human society has always been present in the social sciences. Social scientists have always, at least to some extent, limited their inquiry to particular places or regions. For example, interests in such things as the sociology of the urban family, the economics of the Corn Belt, the geography of the Amazon Valley, and the history of Western Europe can be traced back to the beginnings of social science inquiry. In part, this has stemmed from particular ad hoc interests in particular cultures or societies. More commonly, however, the regional or area focus has served as an important classification device in the search for general principles of human behavior. It has served as a *way of controlling for forces which we do not completely understand, in much the same way that the physical scientist achieves experimental control in the laboratory (see Isard, 1956). For example, suppose that one might be interested in studying the relationship between the economic life of a community and the structure of family organization. There would probably be a few who would recommend, as an appropriate research strategy, the selection of a sample of families randomly drawn from throughout the world. While such a sample might contain the full gambit of family organizations, and a full gambit of economic environments, it would, unfortunately, also contain the whole range of other factors affecting family organization. In such a situation, we could never be sure that the differences in family organization which we observed were really due to the differences in economic environment or whether they were due to other factors we were not taking into account. Accordingly, what we might do would be to study the relationship in which we were primarily interested within a limited arena, say the American South, where we might more safely be able to assume that such things as political organization, social values, climate and natural environment, etc. - the other important influences on family organization - were more or less the same, so that observed differences could be attributed to differences in economic conditions. We might, of course, simultaneously engage in a similarly constructed study in a quite different culture in order to determine whether there was a consistency between the observed impact of economic structure on family organization across different cultures. What has just been described, of course, is the normal

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way in which experimental control is imposed in social science research. We simply define our universe of observation such that the two or three things that we are most interested in vary within it, while other disturbing influences can be assumed to be more or less the same. Sometimes we stratify by race, sometimes by religion, or by a wide variety of other characteristics. In this sense regional stratification always has served as a very important classification device in the social sciences. The use of region as a classification has carried over to programs and people, as well as to scientific inquiry. Both public policy and educational programs often have 'place' orientation. We find things like the TVA, EEC, and institutes for the study of Southeast Asia. Similarly, for a long time there have been people who would describe themselves as experts on the Far East, Latin American Affairs, Russian history, Egyptian archaeology, and the flora and fauna of Australia. In all of the cases mentioned above, however, the regional dimension enters as a classification device (also see Leven, 1969). The new concern with 'urban and regional' has a different form. Here region is no longer merely a classification, but an analytical concept. In short, we have developed an interest in explaining the variation of social phenomena over space itself. How people and human activities distribute themselves in space is seen as an important aspect of human activity in its own right and this is so at all levels; from geopolitical regions to neighborhoods within a city. As a consequence, 'place' has become an institutional form which, as such, frequently is a referent of our concern. For example, Appalachia is not simply the definition of where a large number of poor people live, but in a very real sense is regarded as a 'poor region'. Public policies are being formulated for 'places', and their intelligent formulation demands an effective research effort aimed at explaining social outcomes in terms of places. In a certain sense this should be regarded as an evolutionary extension rather than as a revolution in social science thought. Perhaps at the simplest level we think of people as the main referent of social science interest, and explaining variations of phenomena among them as the most obvious research focus. As social sciences progress, however, the process of organizing information grows, and more complex referents emerge, such as the family, the industry, the linguistic group, or the national body politic. Thus, the concern with the 'urban area' or 'region' can be seen as another step in the abstracting process, aimed at providing still another way of looking at things which will, in turn, enable us to deal with still another class of human problems.

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And so, instead of space or region being simply a description of where to find various things, the new urban and regional interest represents a concern with explaining the spatial configuration itself, and the interaction of the spatial configuration with other social processes. We are interested now, not only in knowing, say, which regions of the United States have high incomes and which regions low, but why it is that incomes differ from region to region and whether or not these differences are diminishing or increasing. We want to know why it is that towns of a given size are eight to ten miles apart in Indiana, Illinois and Iowa, but fifteen to twenty miles apart in Kansas and Nebraska, and what difference this makes for the ways in which these communities function now and the effect on their future. We want to know, not just where traffic jams occur in cities, but instead we would like to understand the functional relationship between the pattern of land use and the resulting traffic origin and destination pattern. This emergent concern with the spatial nature of things probably is due mainly to five factors which are not in themselves wholly related.

LOCATION AS AN OUTCOME

First of all, its locational pattern is an aspect of social organization which has always been of interest in its own right. Where things are makes a difference in social processes, independent of what it is that is located at a particular spot. Also, what is located in one place is not independent of where other things are located; and space represents a certain kind of friction in social processes which can be overcome only with time and effort, sometimes only with considerable difficulty. In a frictionless world a concern for a 'poor' region might be largely beside the point. To be sure, some regions would have higher average incomes than others, but only to the extent to which they had a larger than average share of high earning occupations. That is, one region might have many low income agricultural workers and only a few high paid research scientists, while another might have many researchers and few farmers. If a distributional problem were felt to exist, it would be with respect to differences between occupations, not regions. The resultant differences in the regional averages would be explainable only incidentally in terms of spatial organization since, without any distance friction, we would expect that in the long run, real earnings of both farmers and research scientists would be the same everywhere.

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In the world in which we live, however, the frictions imposed by distance are real.2 There is not only the cost of moving oneself and one's possessions to a new location, there is also the problem of disposing of immovable assets, like houses; there is the trauma of separation from friends and family; there is ignorance of the full range of opportunities; there is fear of the unknown; across national boundaries there may be formal legal barriers. Thus, even in affluent societies we find areas of economic underprivilege, in the sense that people performing the same function receive less than they might receive elsewhere, and perhaps more important, where the prospects for upward social and economic mobility are lower in marked degree. The problem is compounded by the fact that some people do leave, but usually on a highly selective basis. More specifically, the more intelligent, adaptable, and flexible members of the society are the ones most likely to migrate. One if left with a population made up largely of those unable to leave, whether from poverty, incapacity, or ignorance. Moreover, such regions find increasing difficulty in sustaining, by themselves, the efforts required to correct the situation better education, better housing, and improved public services. And thus, we get a 'vicious circle' leading to increasing mediocrity relative to the larger society (see various articles in Heady, 1966). In essence, this is the problem of under-developed areas in the United States today (i.e., Appalachia, the Ozarks, etc.). It is also a problem in other societies. The differences between economic standards in the big cities of Latin America and the rural hinterlands are substantial. The differences between north and south in Italy or Jugoslavia, and between east and west in Poland reflect the same problem. In short, distance and spatial organization do impose immobilities on people which show up in chronically continuing disparities, at least in economic performance.3

A CONCERN WITH GEOGRAPHIC DISPARITY

It should be clear that regional disparity and the immobilizing effects of distance have been with us for a very long time. Why are they emerging 2. For the classic article on distance function see Walter Isard (1951a, b). 3. These kinds of contrasts are discussed more fully in Volume 1-4 of the Regional Planning Series published by Mouton, Paris and The Hague, 1971 and 1972. These volumes deal respectively with experiences and prospects in South and Southeast Asia, the U.S.A., Latin America and Eastern Europe.

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so strongly as a matter of concern now? Largely, it might be suspected, this is a consequence of several developments. First, and paradoxically, the concern with 'region' and the friction of distance seems to have emerged in a world where the actual friction imposed by distance has been diminishing. Until quite recently in man's history, the technology of transportation and the barriers of language, law, and custom were so high that migration, except into virgin territory or in a regular nomadic cycle, was a much less common phenomenon.4 Disparities in performance among regions were scarcely perceived, much less recognized as a problem. Even today, there are limits to the extent to which we view regional differences as even potentially symptomatic of a problem. We are concerned with the disparities between the western world and the emerging nations; between the 'haves' and the 'have nots'. But to a large extent, the spatial aspects of this comparison are benign. The differences are due to culture, technology, and the relationship of population to resource base in different places. While region is an important way of describing where these problems occur, where it is that they are located is not in itself an important source of the problem. In short, we really do not regard the question of differences in returns to farmers in Kansas and in Viet-Nam as one in which regional considerations enter in a critical way. Nor do we look to purely institutional changes that would bring about parity between these two groups as a way of solving the problem surrounding the 'have' and the 'have not' parts of the world. In short, we are really interested in the regional differences that emerge, and how to control them, within a more limited environment in short, the environment which most members of a society regard as the possible one in which they may live out their lives. These may be areas as large as the United States, Western Europe, or East Central Africa (Webber, 1964). At least at this point in man's history, however, they are scarcely even whole continents, much less the world. The techniques of urban study, of course, would lend themselves to a regional view of things on a worldwide basis. It is not developed to this point, probably because of the questionable germaneness of such inquiry (in this sense the limited scope of regional inquiry is itself making use of the older concept of region as a classification device) and due to the extreme analytical complexity and informational requirements of study on so broad a scale. 4. Considerable movements of whole people as a consequence of famine, warfare, etc. extend back to the dawn of civilization. See Hammond (1972). But migration of individual family units from one culture to another is recent.

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Regional study is also applicable to smaller-scale problems of spatial friction. In the foregoing discussion we were really talking about the 'daily living' region - in essence a labor market area - as a unit of observation and our concern was with the parity of performance of all of the 'daily living' spaces that would fall into what might be thought of as a 'normal life' environment - all of the 'daily living' environments which might be perceived of as falling within the feasible set of places to move to or from within the scope of one's life. At a smaller scale, we might be concerned about differences in performance or characteristics of 'neighborhoods', or 'housing' spaces - and how all of such spaces within a single labor market varied in performance and characteristics.

THE REGIONAL DIMENSION IN THE ANTI-POVERTY MOVEMENT

A third reason for an interest in urban and regional distributions reflects a concern over poverty as such as opposed simply to regional disparities. And strangely, that it is emerging at this time is related to the growing affluence of societies in general. In a certain sense, worrying about 'poor' regions is a luxury which can be afforded only at a relatively high average level of material well-being, or at least where the economy has been growing. At a low level of economic development, perhaps the best that can be done is to worry about ameliorative measures in cases of particular impoverished individuals, or classes. Longer-run measures aimed at removing the causes of poverty, inequity, and malfunction require much larger outlays at the early stages of the attack (see Cumberland, 1971, esp. Ch. 4). These are possible only in an affluent society. This partially explains the concern in the U.S. with regions and urban places. Even in less affluent societies, however, there is also a growing concern. But these are usually in places where the rate of economic growth has been rapid, so that at least relative to their recent past the societies are well off. This would be true of most countries in Europe, both East and West, and much of Latin America. By way of contrast, in most of the countries of Africa and Asia, where development takeoff has yet to bear really substantial fruit, there is a distinctly lower interest in such problems, though in the more complex Asian societies, say India, regional planning concerns are most evident.5 5. Misra (1969) contains papers about regional planning techniques in India as well as elsewhere.

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POPULATION HOLDING CAPACITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

A fourth and more recent source of interest in regional allocation stems from concerns over environmental overload and mounting pressure of world population growth. Just how many people can be fed, how large a scale of energy needs can be met, and what is the capacity of the biosphere to absorb waste products?® The significance of the regional dimension of human activity probably is most obvious in considering the problems of pollution control. For example, deleterious effects of automobile exhaust emissions depend not only on the total number of automobiles in the world, or even the U.S., but also on how they are distributed. Specifically, the marginal health hazard imposed by an extra 100 automobiles is very much different in the deserts of eastern Utah than in Chicago. Accordingly, the number of automobiles that can be tolerated is very much a function of the regional allocation as well as the total size of the population. This raises the very interesting and challenging problem of how to make a joint determination of population, population distribution and environmental protection policies. And this is the case with many other kinds of pollutants as well. A water course's capacity for absorbing biodegradeable effluents does depend on the discharge pattern. Both aesthetic and public health consequences of solid waste disposal depend on concentrations as well as total quantities. Energy requirements also are related to deployment of population. True, direct energy requirements for home operation and commodity production may not be much affected, but the impact of locational patterns - both within and between regions - certainly would affect the energy needed for transport of people and commodities. Finally, even the question of world capacity to meet its population's food requirements are related, at least indirectly, to regional allocation considerations. In part this comes from the impact of environmental contamination and absorption of energy for transportation on the level of resource availability for food production. In addition, though, just where people live will affect their pattern of life styles and consumption and so influence - though probably not in a major way - aggregate food and fibre requirements. 6. For examples of interesting essays on all three of these questions see Mazie (1972); Volume 5: Population distribution and policy is especially relevant.

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REGIONAL ANALYSIS AND INFORMATION FLOW

A fifth reason for the emergence of regional studies on such a broad scale is our increased capacity to deal with them analytically. More specifically, the analysis of most urban and regional studies problems involves the collection and processing of very large quantities of data and the analytical manipulation of very large systems. This is so, because the very essence of the new concern with urban and regional phenomenon, as opposed to the older descriptive concern, involves tracing out interactions between places and regions (Leven et al., 1971, Chaps. 1 and 6). Moreover, a sophisticated view of these interrelations must take into account a rather large number of entities simultaneously. A simple example is found in models designed to predict or describe industrial location. True, by examining only one particular place, and comparing it with the limited number of places at which, say, steel mills now exist, one might be able to determine whether or not it would be a feasible location for a new steel mill. However, if one wanted to determine an 'optimum' location for a new mill in the United States, in principle it would be necessary to systematically observe and compare all possible locations. Before the advent of mechanized storage of information, its availability in machine readable form, and routines for its retrieval, such analyses simply were not practical. Thus, much of what goes on in the field of urban and regional studies must be regarded as another example of the new classes of problems which have become amenable of solution with the emergence of computer technology. In sum, then, it would seem that in addition to the regional concern which has always existed, the four major reasons for the current emergence of interest in urban and regional studies are: (1) with diminishing of the friction of distance, stemming from improved transportation and communication, regional differences are more easily perceived and give rise more readily to interpersonal differences; (2) with the rising level of material well-being, societies are approaching the point where the elimination of the effects of interregional immobilities is feasible; (3) given the population's polluting qualities as well as its food and energy requirements, just how it is located makes a difference; (4) with the advent of improved information sources and computer technology the solution of the analytical problems involved is more readily at hand. Finally, at least for the larger nations of the world, an additional reason should be cited, namely the growing recognition on the part of national

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governments of a responsibility for developmental parity over the entire nation (Wingo, 1972). For example, until very recently the U.S. federal government appeared to operate under the notion that it was neutral with respect to interregional differences. With few exceptions, programs were directed either at people or at particular functional problems, without respect to where they existed. If we desired to aid dependent children, we would aid them wherever they were. If we desired to develop waterways, we would develop them according to the principle of seeking the highest rate of return whether the affected region was developed or not (see Leven, 1969). If after all such programs had been carried out, considerable geographic differentials existed in economic performance, this was viewed as part of a set of natural market and other forces which were not the proper concern of the national government, and towards which they would maintain neutrality. In many respects, of course, this view was a delusion. Frequently political pressures were brought to bear to develop particular sectional interests. Moreover, even where not part of the explicit intent of anyone, national programs did have differential effects on different places. We are now seeing the beginning of an era where the amelioration of these differential effects is seen itself as part of a national responsibility. But this task creates a great research challenge. We now must ask not only who needs what, but where are the best places to develop natural resources, where should educational programs be instituted, where should urban renewal occur, and which places should be connected by a new major highway network. Social scientists, in many ways, are ill-prepared to provide answers to these perplexing questions, mainly because we have lived so long in a world in which these questions were avoided and correspondingly in which data sources and analytical techniques for their solution simply were not developed.

SOME NEW DIRECTIONS

As indicated in the introduction, the urban and regional studies movement, in addition to bringing forth a whole new set of problems, information requirements, and needs for the development of new analyses and theories, has also brought forth new disciplines and new research directions. While some theoretical work in the economics of location can be traced back to the eighteenth century, it was not until about fifteen

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years ago that urban and regional economics became a recognized specialty within the profession and a field of study for doctoral work. Formal economic theory previously had been constructed for a society which was thought of as existing at a single point in space and in which no allowance was made for spatial frictions. In the field of geography virtually a revolution has taken place, such that there still are two quite distinct types of people in the field. Traditional geographers still are essentially describers and generalizers from description. For them, 'place' is either the old classification device or a specific location in which they are interested. The 'new' geographers are much more interested in explaining space and distance. They employ a priori theoretical models and engage in hypothesis testing. While still in the minority, they are the pace setters of the profession. In planning too, a new kind of person is emerging. More traditionally city planners were concerned with the adequacy of physical facilities and the assignment of land uses in the city so as to avoid congestion and noncompatible abutting uses. Their analytical problem was simple. All they needed were estimates of the total amounts of things to be found in the city in the future and then to design adequate facilities for them. Their problem was one essentially of design. Most people in city planning came out of a background of architecture or engineering, with some from law. More recently, city planners have been concerned with metropolitan regions as well as particular cities. Also, they are concerned, not only with the design of facilities, but with the effect of the facilities which they are planning on the very environment for which they are attempting to plan. This presents them with an entirely new analytical problem. It is no longer enough to know how many people will be traveling between two points in order to determine the necessary road capacity, but to learn how to evaluate the effects of the existence of road capacity on the location of people and their travel plans. In short, they are becoming concerned with the development process itself. Finally, a unique kind of personality has appeared on the scene in the past fifteen or twenty years, namely the regional scientist. Regional scientists are concerned purely with the question of the distribution in space of human activity, without respect to a particular class of activity or process. In other words, they are not specifically concerned with the location of economic activity, differences in income or social performance among different regions, etc., but really with the abstract question of what it is in human beings that causes them to distribute themselves in particular

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ways for particular purposes, and whether or not one can generalize about the reaction of people to spatial separation. While there are relatively few people who would call themselves pure regional scientists, there are many who are interested in the problem from a more applied viewpoint. While those noted are the main kinds of personalities that have been created, it should also be recognized that within a wide variety of disciplines individuals have been developed as urban and regional specialists. And while the language of highly specialized social scientists continues to be spoken in several dialects, exchange of information between different groups is becoming more common, if not more necessary. Perhaps even more important, even though individual scholars emerge just as specialized as ever, they are organized into new disciplines which have been fused from elements found in several dispirit fields. In this sense the regional studies movement has been an important example of how traditional disciplines, even if they cannot eliminate the problems of interdisciplinary communication, at least may be capable of producing new permutations and combinations of skills in response to the emerging problems of society.

REFERENCES Cumberland, J. H. (1971) Regional development: Experiences and prospects in the United States of America. Paris-The Hague, Mouton (UNRISD Ser., Regional Planning, Vol. 2). Education and career information for planning and related fields: January 1973 (1973) American Society of Planning Officials. Chicago. Hammond, M. (1972) The city in the ancient world. Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press. Heady, E. (Ed.) (1966) Research and education for regional area development. Ames, Iowa State University Press. Isard, W. (1951a) Distance impacts, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May. (1951b) The space economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August. (1956) Regional science: The concept of region and regional structure, Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association. Vol. 2. Leven, C. L. (1969) Determinants of the size and spatial form of urban areas, Papers of the Regional Science Association. Vol. 22. , Legier, J., & Shapiro, P. (1971) An analytical framework for regional development policy. Cambridge, Mass., M.I.T. Press. (Ed.) (1969) Development benefits of water resources investments. Springfield, Va., Clearinghouse for Federal Scientific and Technical Information, IWR Report 69-1. Mazie, S. M. (Ed.) (1972) The commission on population growth and the American future: Research reports. Washington, D.C., Government Printing Office. Vols. 1-6.

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Misra, R. P. (Ed.) (1969) Regional planning. Prasarange, University of Mysore. University urban research centers (1971-1972). Washington, D.C., The Urban Institute. 2nd edition. Webber, M. (1964) Culture, territoriality and the elastic mile, Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 13. Wingo, L. (1972) Issues in a national urban development policy for the United States, Urban Studies, February: 3-28.

JANUSZ A. ZIOLKOWSKI

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The integrated social science approach to regional planning in developing countries*

1.

THE CASE FOR AN INTEGRATED SOCIAL SCIENCE APPROACH TO REGIONAL PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

1.1 The effects of narrow approaches to regional planning By now it has been widely recognized in the developing countries that regional planning is a necessary tool for a more comprehensive, effective and humane development efiFort. Yet it is beset by a number of predicaments. Regional planning which was meant to overcome the deficiencies of national planning - in particular, to avoid a narrow, sectoral approach to development - has landed itself in a position where it is very often a 'regionalization' of mistakes made by planning on a national level (of course, this is to some extent an overstatement). The first predicament is what might be called 'economo-centrism' of regional planning. Regional development (to be sure, development in general) had been viewed in a rather narrow, technical sense. According to Gunnar Myrdal (1958), 'very much of our thinking about development in under-developed countries is centred upon "investment", meaning in physical things, and its expected result in increased total "output" in an industry or in the national economy as a whole.' Initially, social development was completely subordinated to economic * The present paper is a revised and enlarged version of a paper presented at the Symposium on European Co-operation in Training Regional Planners from Developing Countries, held in Stockholm, September 1971, organized by the Division of Social Affairs of the United Nations Office at Geneva, in collaboration with the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The original version of this paper is contained in the report on this meeting, UN document SOA/ESPD/1971/4, published by the United Nations Office at Geneva.

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development. Models of regional development were constructed on predominantly economic (monetary) and technical calculations. Social change was regarded as something that would automatically follow the economic growth.1 This predominance of the economic approach to planning, visible particularly in an investment policy which neglects social needs, has had adverse effects both on the economic plane and in the broader social setting. With regard to the economic plane it resulted in, for example, (1) inadequate labour efficiency of the undernourished, unskilled and badly housed worker; (2) the total or partial failure of economic projects due to the lack of knowledge of the psycho-social infrastructure of the people involved (here the most typical is the inadequate utilization of large-scale irrigation schemes by the populace). With regard to the social setting, we witness (1) the clash between economic goals formulated in terms of output only and social development objectives and needs (for instance, when introducing highly specialized, labour-saving industries against the needs of maximum possible employment in the over-populated region), (2) the concentration of industry and infrastructure in a few areas thus creating enclaves of modernization in the midst of growing economic stagnation. The second predicament is the one-sided development of some sectors without taking into account the whole socio-economic context. For example: (1) The concentration in the development programmes on building up the industrial sector, particularly heavy industry, leads to the neglect of agriculture, the major untapped potential for the development in most Asian, African and Latin American countries (the developing countries are agrarian societies and likely to remain so for a long time to come); (2) the emphasis on general education unsuited to the needs of development reinforces unfavourable attitudes toward manual work and increases the numbers of frustrated and half-educated white-collar job seekers. The third predicament is unrealistic planning, i.e., target formulation which is not accompanied by the concrete measures that serve to reach the specified goals (cf. Stöhr, 1971, p. 14). This may be so because (1) the implementing measures are not specified in enough detail for guiding 1. This was also to be seen in social science research which in the fifties and the early sixties was preoccupied with 'the social consequences of technological and economic change' (many UN- and UNESCO-sponsored studies bore this out).

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action; (2) policy instruments exceed the economic capacity of the country; (3) policy is not compatible with existing political, institutional and behavioural codes. Some examples of this are rural development when there are no political conditions for implementing land reform, industrial decentralization when the institutional means for guiding industrial location do not exist, migration control as a means for improving the settlement pattern when real motivations of potential migrants are not known and cannot, therefore, be acted upon. Very often the underlying cause of all these deficiencies of regional development has been the uncritical transplantation of strategies of development and technologies born and proved effective in the advanced countries. It has been found again and again that the institutions, motivations and opportunities for development observable under particular historical conditions are not necessarily present in a different sociocultural setting. 1.2 Need for an integrated social science approach Of course, efforts have been undertaken to overcome these deficiencies. First and foremost in dealing with the conflict of economic versus social, some planners have recognized the interdependence of economic and social development, giving rise to the wide introduction of sociological elements into the analysis of development processes. The first step taken toward recognizing the social dimension was the rehabilitation of the social services in economic planning. Namely, it was pointed out that less than half of the economic gains were due to material inputs; the balance of more than half was due to 'investment in man'. Therefore, a plea was made more and more often that in a plan, social objectives (education, health, housing, etc.) be 'built in' on an equal footing with economic objectives. But it was characteristic that the argument used - in order to drive it home to policy-makers - was economic (monetary) in character. At the same time, it was not infrequently the case that economic output fell short of the target because human attitudes and ensuing behaviour were not conducive to modernization. In connection with this, a postulate to investigate the 'social reality' was put forward as a pre-condition to the plan design. But here, too, social considerations were thought subsidiary to economic considerations. It has been only recently that the social dimension of development planning has been recognized in its own right and that economic planning

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has begun to assume its proper role as a means to achieving modernization of a society, to becoming an integral part of a wider process aiming at the social progress. Consequently, efforts are being made to go beyond the traditional cost-benefit approach which takes little account, if at all, of the basically social goals of economic activity.2 The procedure opposing economics and sociology as symbols of these two approaches - one narrow, the other broader - is, undoubtedly, grossly oversimplified and unfair to economics.3 There are open-minded economists as well as unimaginative sociologists. One should take these two disciplines as rather 'ideal type' constructs. Besides, sociology and economics serve here rather as rallying points for a pretty wide range of disciplines which have a bearing on regional development planning. Let us recall that in addition to (1) regional economic development, there are two more broad fields of regional development planning: (2) regional social transformation, and (3) integration of a region into the nation's life and culture. All of them constitute major fields for the social science inquiry (Morsink, 1971). Within the realm of 'economics' we have also, to be sure, a number of disciplines such as economic geography, econometrics, business management, accounting, commerce, etc. However, it is not our task to deal with the economic part of social science. Our main interest is in what comes under the umbrella of 'sociology'. Here we can roughly distinguish the following disciplines (based to some extent on Iatridi, 1966): Demography - a study of human populations, primarily with respect to their size, their structure (E. Durkheim's 'social morphology') and their development, relevant to the problems of population control and patterns of settlement and migration. Sociology sensu stricto - a study of the social systems and their functioning, relevant to the population control, patterns of settlement and migration, social stratification and patterns of social mobility, attitudes to social change, institutional change, leadership and 'key-groups', decision-making and power, national integration.

2. Compare the following statement of Kapp (1965): 'Social economics refuses to regard man as an object or what is the same thing, as a resource or capital: instead it considers man whether in his capacity as a worker or a consumer as an end of all economic activity. In short, social economics insists on an essentially humanistic approach in its analysis of economic processes.' 3. See Wright (1964, p. 227), where a trend pushing economics and economists in the direction of a merger with other social sciences is shown.

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Social psychology - a study of the basic personality structure, needs and behaviour of individuals and groups, relevant to human motivations, public participation, attitudes to social change, social leadership, national integration. Cultural (social) anthropology - a study of cultural patterns, valuesystems and way of living of 'simple' groups and communities, relevant to the problems of attitudes to social change, social leadership, institutional change, national integration. Political science, law, administration - a study of power, the general political, legal and administrative system and behaviour, relevant to the problems of power, decision-making and execution, social leadership, institutional change, national integration. Scientific study of religion - dealing with systems of religious belief, practice and organization, relevant to population control, attitudes to social change, social mobility, national integration. Social philosophy and ethics - a study of ideologies, conceptual and value-systems, relevant to population control, social mobility, institutional change, national integration. Scientific study of education and information - dealing with learning and communication as a social process, relevant to human resources formation, population control, attitudes to social change, national integration. Human geography - a study of spatial distribution of social groups and institutions and the relationship between geographic and social elements, relevant to patterns of human settlement and migration, adaptation to environmental change. In the above list only the principal social science disciplines are mentioned (needless to say, it was done in an over-simplified manner both with regard to the scope of the distinctions and their relevance to the development problems). But even from this rapid and sketchy review it is abundantly clear that the 'social division of labour' between the social sciences as regards regional development planning is not always so clearcut; more often than not they overlap and intermix. After all, their subject matter is one - human society and the societal change. The existing differentiation, a product of specialization, so important for the development of science, enables to look at the common subject of study from various angles and perspectives. But due to the strength of the institutional divisions of science (to be seen in the academic tradition, titles of chairs, journals, associations, etc.), there is a danger of fragmentalization of research and dispersion of findings. It is only through the integration

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of the body of knowledge of all relevant social science disciplines and its full utilization that we can arrive at a proper understanding and solution of problems connected with social change and development. This is where the integrated social science approach comes in. It goes beyond what is called 'multidisciplinary' or 'interdisciplinary' approach. 'Integration may be defined as the process of making whole or entire' (Kolb, 1964, p. 656). In our case the idea of integration would manifest itself in a procedure enabling us to present a given aspect of social reality as an entity - in all its complexity and interdependence; in addition in order to study it, a unified action of all relevant social science disciplines is undertaken, where the various tasks are purposively synchronized and combined.4

2. THE INTEGRATED SOCIAL SCIENCE APPROACH TO REGIONAL PLANNING

In regional development efforts, due to the comprehensiveness of their approach, one deals not with single problems but rather with 'problem clusters'.5 Let me turn to some of those unified problems where an integrated social science approach is needed. 2.1 Human welfare as an objective of regional development Human welfare as an ultimate objective of development planning is an expression of a social philosophy based on ideals of democracy and social justice. Therefore, governmental programmes® in this field are concerned in the first place with the fulfilment of the basic human needs of the main hulk of the population. Human needs, to be sure, are stratified, and embrace: (1) elementary biological needs (right to sheer existence); (2) primary social needs necessary from the point of view of the existing social norms and social status (socially determined level of living); (3) secondary social needs necessary from the point of view of sophisticated 4. This idea is not new. It was eloquently stated in, among others, UNESCO (1963). 5. This term was used by Morsink (1971). 6. The developing countries are overwhelmingly traditional societies. It is the government that is the main promoter and carrier of modernization. This is why although in some cases it may be an over-simplification - a sign of equation is being made between the orientation towards progress and the government.

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group standards and individual aspirations (style of life). This is how they are seen by the individuals, the consequence being that their definition varies in various social groups and situations. Even the notion 'elementary biological needs' is not the same in all social strata of a given society. Disparities are much more conspicuous on the second and third - 'social' - levels. Hence, the differences between the 'objective' and 'rational' needs of the society as formulated on the national level and the 'subjective' - often 'irrational' and egoistical - needs of the various social strata. The net result is that the human welfare programmes are often frowned upon by large portions of the population. This is not the end of the story. The development plans call for the restructuring of the national economy (economic growth, redistribution of national income, new patterns of social consumption), for social and institutional change which is bound to intervene in each sphere of life. In realizing this aim, the government's action falters on rigid social stratification; the power system operating in a given area; value-systems and attitudes, socio-cultural norms and ways of behaviour not conducive to change; vested interests of 'key-groups' in the community; and, last but not least, unfavourable attitudes of the intermediate and local levels of administration responsible for the execution of the programme. In this situation, national programmes formulated by the governments which do not take into account the existing 'social reality' are bound to fail, unless, of course, the government concerned has at its disposal almost unlimited resources and power - an extremely rare case, indeed. Generally speaking, there must be a mutual process of adaptation between the national goals and priorities and locally felt needs and aspirations, between the programme and the feasibility of society 'digesting' it and making it its own. This is where regional planning comes in. It provides a bridge between the local and the national plane and establishes realistic goals and priorities within the realm of human welfare. In this effort it must be supported by integrated social sciences. The general scope of the human welfare programme has long been established; it embraces, as is known, education, health, housing, general living conditions, employment opportunities and labour welfare, social security, recreation. Social sciences have played an eminent role in identifying and defining those broad components (social sectors) of human welfare activities; their particular contribution has been the formulation - in the light of the scientific findings - of the egalitarian model of the programme. In regional

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development planning, their task is to see to it that the programme is well-adapted to the particularistic needs as well as to the potentialities of the region concerned (which might escape the notice of a central planning authority). Its first task is to investigate the 'social reality', in particular (1) the basic social problems in the region which call for action; (2) 'social resources' to be utilized; (3) drawbacks and bottlenecks; (4) moral (social) consciousness to be acted upon. For example, sociology, while examining the existing social structure, should draw attention not only to the drawbacks (rigidity of social stratification and ascribed statuses - resistance to change) but also to the social groupings and associations acting as a social security scheme, a scheme which may be utilized for self-help action in implementing human welfare goals. Social psychology - while studying the problem of social prestige - should indicate the usefulness of social leadership (both 'modernized' and 'traditional') in bringing about social change (personality-effect). Students of religion, while investigating the religious beliefs existing in a region, should accentuate in their moral codes those norms which would give moral support to, or legitimization of, various human welfare programmes. The second task is to help to formulate the basic goals and to contribute to their implementation and evaluation, by: (1) drawing attention to the above-mentioned findings and their implications; (2) investigating the mutual interdependence of particular social schemes as well as the interdependence of social and economic schemes. These should be carefully assessed since a change in one link can cause a chain reaction on both sides. Therefore, the balance between them will have to be struck and watched at every turning of regional development. To take health, maternity and child care as an example,7 demography depicts trends of population growth as affected by the decrease in the mortality rate and the extension of longevity, changes in age structure, cityward and interregional migration; economy takes note of the growing numbers of dependent population and the ensuing burden for the national economy, pressure on the labour market and growing unemployment, annihilating effect of uncontrolled population growth on economic growth; sociology and socialpsychology study socio-cultural determinants of fertility patterns, migration motivations, social adaptation of migrants to the new urban setting; education and information indicates ways and means of dissemi7. See Kulkarni (1965, p. 19). I have drawn heavily upon this study.

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nating knowledge on public health (including nutrition and sanitation) standards and on family planning matters; social work brings home the implications of the population growth - as an unanticipated and unintended result of one-sided measures - for various sectors of human welfare (education, employment, etc., health services included). 2.2 'Social structure' and regional development One of the most comprehensive concepts of the social science is that of social structure. It is (1) an arrangement of positions or statuses (such as occupations, offices, classes, age and sex distributions) and (2) a network of relationships among persons, or actors (Eister, 1964, p. 668). The notion of social structure plays a key-role in regional planning. On the one hand, it is one of the basic determinants of regional development efforts. 'Central to the concept of social factors [as determinants of development] is the notion of social structure - that every society has a framework of major principles of action, represented by family and kinship ties, status relations, political linkages, moral norms' (UNESCO, 1973, p. 2). There is no metaphysics in regarding social structure as a determinant of development. It is simply a force to be reckoned with. A detailed and realistic appraisal of the social structure in a given country, and within it in particular regions, preceding goals and target setting is a foregone conclusion of such an attitude. On the other hand, a regional plan, particularly in the developing countries, brings about - whether it is intended or not - a transformation of the existing social framework. The way in which the social structure affects, and is affected by, regional development planning should be one of the major concerns for the integrated social science approach. There are various modes of relating regional development to the social structure. I shall mention two of them. Both take as a point of departure the fact that in the developing countries regional planning is put into a much wider context, i.e., modernization of a society. In the first case (Morsink, 1971), we deal explicitly with regional planning as an instrument for bringing about the transformation of the regional social structure (it includes - in the Spencerian tradition - social institutions as well). The first task of the integrated social science in this field is to investigate why greater social (institutional) change has not occurred before, concentrating, in particular, on (1) attitudinal, behavioural and structural 'reasons for stagnation' in a given region (subjects

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of study for sociology, social psychology, study of religion, social philosophy; (2) the power structures, particularly the institutionalization of the power process in the region (sociology, political science). The other task is to indicate 'core areas' in the institutional system where a breakthrough might, be tried, concentrating, in particular, on functional formal organizations which may constitute new elements of power and new avenues for action within the realm of regional development (the subject of study for sociology and political science). The problem of rural stagnation can serve as an example. With regard to reasons mention should be made of: (1) land ownership and land tenure systems not propitious for change; (2) rigidity of social structure; (3) local power system (for these three - sociology, economy, political science); (4) value judgements and behavioural patterns - attitude to work, to life and its ultimate goals, moral standards, etc. (sociology, social psychology, cultural anthropology, study of religion, social philosophy); (5) stagnant, subsistence agriculture, geographic and cultural isolation (economy, human geography, social psychology). With regard to methods the following measures are necessary: (1) effective land reform - assessment of facilitating and hampering factors in implementing it, formulation of implementation measures (political science, economy, sociology, human geography); (2) development of agriculture - selection of the most appropriate means, such as dissemination of the know-how, financing system, investments, rural public works, marketing system, agricultural service centres (education, economy, human geography, public administration); (3) development of functional formal organizations which can appeal to feelings of solidarity already existing within a region but not yet articulated so far among different categories of the population. In the second case (Smelser, 1963) the investigation of social structure is organized around three major categories, typical for rapid social change, both at a regional and national scale: (1) differentiation, which characterizes a social structure that is moving toward greater complexity; (2) integration, which in certain respects balances the divisive character of differentiation and unites differentiated structures on a new basis; (3) social disturbances which result from the discontinuities between differentiation and integration. Changes in family life can serve as an example. As regards differentiation: the breakup of extended families into economically and socially emancipated nuclear families; as regards integration: the growth of

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'functional' groupings (voluntary associations) based on economic or political interest in which nuclear families migrating to towns can maintain social ties under the industrial conditions; as regards social disturbances: conflict of generations, husband-wife strife, social anomie, anxiety, social unrest (subjects of study for sociology, social psychology). There is no doubt that the conception of social structure tackled by the integrated social science could be of great value to regional development planning. 2.3 ''Psychosocial infrastructure'' and regional development Another 'problem cluster' calling for an integrated social science approach is that of 'psycho-social infrastructure' (see Zioikowski, 1967). By this term we understand the level and distribution of various social characteristics which may have an impact on economic growth and social and institutional innovation. These are not only the most typical sociodemographic features (population size, age and sex structure, natural increase, internal migration, socio-occupational structure, levels of education and professional qualifications) - the province of demography and sociology which form the usual factual basis for the investment and settlement policy - but also characteristics, attitudes and modes of behaviour pertaining to work and broader social life, such as working habits, labour efficiency, absenteeism, respect for public property, 'citizenattitude', patterns of cultural consumption, phenomena of social pathology and social disorganization. This is a field of study for social psychology and sociology of leisure, sociology of law and morality, psychiatry). Since some of these attitudes can be moulded by social and religious ideologies and various cultural 'fads' (particularly among the young people), it would be useful to include the study of religion, social philosophy and ethics as well as sociology of mass movements. As the development of attitudes which are more conducive to social change is of prime importance, collaboration on educational and informational studies should also be secured. Every plan must be based on a detailed appraisal of all the fields it covers. But sometimes we know more about the structure and distribution of soils than about the social infrastructure of the community for which and on behalf of which the plan is constructed and carried out. It is this non-material and non-technical infrastructure, too often overlooked or disregarded in regional development policies, that largely determines not

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only the social but also the economic effects of the projects undertaken. The importance of the regional approach to planning for development lies precisely in the possibility of doing justice to the socio-cultural differentiation of a given country which might unwittingly escape notice of the central planner preoccupied with the country as a whole. The obvious postulate for the integrated social science approach derived from the above is to investigate in a systematic way the psycho-social infrastructure of a particular country and its regional distribution. The influence of the findings should be felt both at the goal-setting phase and in the selection of means and methods best suited for the execution of some plan targets (for instance, while locating and putting into operation a new factory or introducing a new cash crop or technological innovation in the countryside). The thesis that there is a correlation between the specific socio-cultural character of a given region and the manner in which the regional plan is implemented seems to be of great theoretical and practical significance and should, consequently, be tested in various parts of the 'Third World'. 2.4 Public participation in regional development Another 'problem cluster' to be dealt with by the integrated social science approach is that of popular participation8 in regional development and regional planning. Why is it so important? First of all, because it is a conditio sine qua non of the successful planning. 'Participation in the process of development provides an important stimulus in conditioning people to change their outlook and tradition. The experience of being involved is singularly important in aiding an individual to acquire the confidence to act and the skill to work' (United Nations, 1970, p. 29). The smaller the resources put at disposal of a given government, the more it should rely on the commitment of the people who are ready to identify themselves with the plan. Second, because it is a school of modernization and citizenship. Popular participation is an extension of democratic practices prevailing thus far mainly in the field of political behaviour to a growing range of economic and social actions within the framework of development efforts. Its relevance can be discerned at two levels of planning: (1) plan formulation, (2) plan implementation. 8. This has been widely recognized by now. Compare ECLA (1964), ECAFE (1966).

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As to the first level, the central question is how to ensure that the mass of the population have access to the decision-making process; in other words - how to make the plan more democratic and more a reflection of the people's real aspirations and needs. Here the study should concentrate, among others, on (Morsink*, 1971, pp. 16-24): the significance of attitudes prevailing in local key-groups for creating a favourable 'climate' for participation; the importance of formal groupings and voluntary associations for securing active participation; the analysis of various levels and kinds of participation. Of course, the problem may arise whether and to what extent, in the circumstances prevailing in a great many traditional societies, the masses of the population would be willing and/or able to participate constructively in the process of planning and whether sometimes the methods of 'enlightened absolutism' would not be more appropriate. In any case, as the very practice of formulating locally felt needs is of prime importance, this should be encouraged, and ways and means for securing wider participation should be investigated. In connection with this, one of the most important problems where the investigation of social science is needed is that of the channels of communication between the people and the administrators of the regional development effort. Has communication ever been established? Or has it broken down after some time, and what are the blockages of the flow of information? The communication problem in all these efforts which aim at synchronizing and reinforcing 'planning from above and below' is basically a question of two-way flows: The decisions taken at the top must be adequately explained to the mass of population, while the latter must also be given the channels of access to the decision makers. To this end, institutionalization of the flow of information is needed. At the top, it would result in the increase of the efficiency of the communication channels between elite groups (within the administration itself, between central and regional bodies, between the bureaucratic hierarchy and consultant experts, between planners and politicians) who - to be sure, not only in the developing countries - tend to interpret information in the light of their own value perspectives. In the last analysis, it would enable to communicate the central 'consensus' efficiently to the people affected by policy decisions. But the crux of the matter is to relate effectively the decision making and planning body to local opinion. This will not be achieved unless, again, institutionalized ways and means are formed to * In this volume, pp. 471-478.

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feedback reactions in local society to the regional body which, in turn, will make necessary adjustments and corrections. One of the modes of securing institutionalized feedback of local opinion is to utilize the associations which can be considered as the people's spokesmen, i.e., party organizations, trade unions, workers and co-operative councils, local legislative bodies, extension schemes, etc. Popular participation at the implementation level is closely connected with the problem of motivation. One cannot over-emphasize the importance of the latter as a possible explanation and factor in regional development. Motivation has been defined as 'a state of the organism that is activity arousing' (Newcombe, 1964, p. 448). And it is precisely the need for widespread public activity with regard to national and regional development which is sought by many countries concerned with the shortcomings in implementation of development plans. The level of motivation is highly differentiated according to the groups, even within the same population, or the programme in question. Among some people and for certain programmes motivation is high, while in other cases it is low. In fact, we deal not with one homogenous phenomenon but with many differential patterns. Identifying them would be tantamount to providing an invaluable instrument for bringing about desired change. Insufficient motivation and participation may be partly due to ignorance ; people are only dimly aware of the existence of a plan or parts of it. More often, however, it is the matter of indifference: They do not know how it benefits them and hence take no interest in it. Finally, people may be tired of constant appeals for their personal involvement and sacrifice for the sake of social ideals of development. Human motivation, by definition, is oriented toward certain goals; the activity that is aroused is 'selective with respect to the environment' (Newcombe, 1964, p. 448). Much of what has been characterized as 'apathy', 'inertia' and 'resistance to change' can be interpreted as a mechanism of selfdefence against conditions which have frequently demonstrated their inability to suit actual human needs or simply against the protracted state of psychical mobilization. Therefore, the problem of stimulating greater participation and speeding up implementation is not really so much one of overcoming a lack of motivations popularly recognized as the prime determinants of such participation as finding ways of capitalizing on motivation that is already present. If it be sound, the simplified notion of shaping human material to fit the requirements of development plans must be abandoned in favour of finding out what people want and expect

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from development, or to put it another way, what must be done to make them willing and effective participants in regional development. Obviously enough, motivation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for regional development. The real problem appears to be one of achieving effective motivation, i.e., desires backed by means. Very often it is not lack of motivation that is responsible for the failure to realize the goals and targets of development plans. In a great many cases, what is lacking is the institutional framework conducive to development - necessary resources, facilities, methods and instruments - rather than motivation as such. Thus, institutional change and reform and also institutionbuilding are absolutely indispensable to providing the necessary stimulus and ensuring public participation. It would, of course, be impossible to examine at length all social factors instrumental in arousing motivations and obtaining popular participation.9 On the motivational side consideration can be given to some prerequisites for the development of effective motivation. It depends, among other things, on appropriate social and physical infrastructure, scientific and technical innovation, prospects for future advancement, changes in certain value systems, proper understanding of the purposes of development and support for the national and regional development objectives, climate of public confidence in official policies and leadership, awareness of the way in which development could benefit the individual and his primary social groups, the existence of a development plan which might serve as a rallying point and the presence of smaller local components of large development projects with which the local population can identify themselves. As examples of steps to be taken to ensure popular participation, mention can be made, among others, of social incentives extended not only to the targets of development but also to the agents of change, the utilizing and reactivating of traditional values and institutions instead of setting up new ones, the existence of local political organizations based on moral and ethnical principles rather than on politics as such, participation in voluntary and informal associations (with the stress on the importance of participation by women and youth), positive reaction to the development plan of the key segments (critical groups) of the community (dominant groups, the better educated and trained groups, progressive workers, school teachers, village headmen, traditional leaders, 9. Some of them have been identified by ECAFE (1966).

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ex-administrators) (see Indian National Institute of Community Development, 1965). The problem of public participation is closely intertwined with the problems of social structure and psycho-social infrastructure. Therefore, all these social science disciplines which are relevant to the latter considerations are also relevant to the field of public participation. 2.5 Administrative requirements for regional development Last but not least, mention should be made of the legal, political, organizational and administrative conditions and requirements for the implementation of planning objectives. 'The framework of law, the nature of indigenous political institutions, the structure of governmental activities, and the quality and character of administrative practice constitute important elements of the environment within which any regional development programme is undertaken.'10 To put it briefly - planning without being able to exercise power as regards both decision-making and execution is but an intellectual exercise for its own sake. Therefore, within the integrated social science approach the political sciences (to be sure, constituting also a 'cluster' of disciplines) which deal, essentially, with the problem of how to get things done are of utmost importance. Here are the main problems. With regard to the framework of law: (1) The governmental framework as established by law. Of decisive importance here is to assess the adequacy of the legal foundation of the regional development planning and, alternatively, to suggest how the law might be adjusted to foster regional development. This refers both to the question of whether sufficient authority to conduct the range of regional development plans is provided and to more specific decisions about taxes, borrowing and other revenues, as well as about outlays for public services and facilities. (2) Constraints and policies set forth in law which influence or determine the nature of governmental activities in the field of regional development. The developing countries are confronted with a number of constraints to development plans. These constraints may consist of a lack of mobility of production factors, a strong geographic concentration of purchasing power, great regional differences in access to transport, communication and social facilities, the inability of peripheral regions to adopt innovations, etc.11 The most immediate and direct impact upon 10. Resources for the Future/Staff Study (1966, p. 63). The forthcoming remarks are based on a relevant section of this study (pp. 63-72). 11. The examples are taken from United Nations (1971, p. 15).

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regional development is made by institutional constraints. Examples of this are: a land-tenure system detrimental to agricultural advance; undeveloped institutions for enterprise, employment, trade and credit; imperfections in lie authority of government agencies - national and regional; ineffective organs for regional and local self-government; a weak infrastructure of voluntary organizations, etc. (Myrdal, 1968, p. 1863). (3) The rights and obligations of private institutions whose activities influence regional development. For instance, property law and tax structure may have an important bearing upon production and investment decisions of business firms and the growth of entrepreneur ship in general. Therefore, to indicate the nature of these constraints and the extent to which they are or are not being overcome is the task of utmost importance for the formulation of consistently structured and effective regional development plans. Equally important is to suggest the measures which could remove institutional constraints in a given sphere of regional development. With regard to political institutions: (1) The relationships between the sources of political power and the administration of the regional programme. Regional planning is a political process which has not only regional but also national implications. A consequence of this is that the regional development plan must be in harmony with political objectives of the country as a whole as stated by the central authority and that its system of organization and administration must be fitted into the nationwide political structure. The knowledge of the way in which political influences are structured and how they function within the country as a whole is of fundamental importance to the establishment of appropriate institutional relationships between politics and regional development administration. (2) The configuration of political forces in the region itself. The aim is to try to understand what are the major political and interest-groups (political parties, labour unions, business organizations) and how they exercise influence in shaping the regional development programme; how do elective administrators and legislative regional bodies fit into the process of plan formulation; how (or, whether at all) the interests and aspirations of the people of the region are politically articulated (for instance, by establishing a special political organization for development efforts). With regard to the pattern of organization: (1) The establishment of special arrangements cutting across the traditional patterns of regional organization. This may happen either by creating a new regional

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authority with broad powers or by giving new tasks to existing units or by creating new forms of inter-agency co-operation. (2) Relationships with other governmental entities responsible for programmes which bear upon regional development. (3) Institutional arrangements for involving particular interest-groups (economic agents and collective organizations) in the decision-making process. Here of great importance is such a structuring of an information system for regional development that would give both the administration and the interest-groups mutual access to all information relevant for their decisions (see Hermansen, 1968). With regard to administrative procedures and staffing patterns: (1) The requirement for people with highly specialized skills in substantial numbers not always available through the civil service. (2) The necessity for a closer than usual gearing of national, state, provincial and local administrative machines. (3) The social service cadres often unused to the tasks of regional development.12 The main concern of all these social science studies is to arrive at approaches and patterns conducive to regional development. 2.6 Other integrated approaches The integrated social science approach to regional planning, presented above in a very sketchy manner, is only one of the possible approaches to the problem. Its point of departure is intellectual·, there can be no solution to a given problem unless the latter is examined and ascertained. Since the problem under review is complex, it is necessary to investigate all its components utilizing to this end all relevant social science disciplines; again, since it is an interdependent and organic whole - an integrated approach is needed. There are some other approaches concentrating on crucial problems of regional development. Their point of departure is pragmatic: A given problem is being recognized as important enough to become an axis round which a regional development programme is organized. For instance: (1) The employment approach - concerned with providing larger employment opportunities; relevant particularly to regions (and countries) characterized by rural over-population and stagnation and 'over12. The last point is particularly significant. Compare Rowland (1969, p. 45): 'It is impossible to over-emphasize the importance of establishing real points of contacts between the regional development planner and the regional/local administrative machinery, since the latter can often make or break the programme.'

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urbanization' (demographic urbanization without economic urbanization). (2) The human resources approach - focused on manpower formation; relevant in particular to new resource (frontier) and industrialized regions as well as to agricultural areas undergoing rapid development. The integrated urban)rural approach (see Ziolkowski, 1970), with the balancing and co-ordinating rural and urban development policies; relevant particularly to those regions (and countries) where the cityward migration from the economically overpopulated rural areas (push-effect) and the concentration of investment in urban areas (pull-efFect) have resulted in agglomeration of population in a single or a few metropolitan areas, deepening in this way the stagnation of the countryside and aggravating the 'urban crisis'. However, whatever the problem posed at the outset, its solution (1) calls for a scientific approach, (2) sooner or later leads to including the whole gamut of accompanying problems. Just to take three aforementioned problems: None of them can be solved unless the other two are taken into account; very soon each of them is bound to encounter the problems of social structure, psycho-social infrastructure, public participation, and so on. In no time it will reach a stage when an integrated social science approach will be needed. Mention should also be made of another integrated approach (enjoying wide popularity nowadays) - the human environment approach. A central value in all endeavours with regard to human environment is - to paraphrase Aristotle's concept of 'the good life' - 'the good environment'. By this we understand an environment which at its best supports socially desirable planful behaviour; is able to perform its basic functions, i.e., to provide shelter, work/food and possibilities for recreation (when we create ourselves afresh); and secures the fulfilment of basic human 'wishes' for security, emotional response, social recognition and new experience. Among many factors brought about by industrial civilization, which have powerful impact on human environment, two should be stressed: (1) An immense population growth due to which profound changes initiated by industrial civilization assume mass character - there are mass communities, mass concentrations of people, mass needs and means of satisfying them (to this should be added the process of social democratization putting basic needs, desires of all social strata on an equal footing); (2) spatial 'sectoralization' caused by concentration of highly specialized economic activity seeking maximization of returns.

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The environment which is affected by 'sectoralization' ceases to be internally balanced and in its functioning is becoming dependent on other complementary 'sectoralized' environments; it is but part of an environment of a higher order. This, to be sure, accounts for the constant civilizational advance. However, the price paid for it is the vulnerability of the whole system: (1) Its functioning is more and more dependent on the efficiency of the system of transportation and communication; (2) intensive and one-sided use of space within a sector - industrial, agricultural, etc. - is upsetting the equilibrium of the biological environment, endangering soil, vegetation and man more and more, often far beyond the boundaries of the sector; (3) differences in relative importance and social attractiveness of various sectors lead to the polarization of wealth, decision-making and population in some areas and depopulation, stagnation or marginalization in other. The direction of migratory movements is predominantly the same: from the more traditional to the more technologized environment. The cityward migration on a national scale is accompanied on an international scale by a trend: from overpopulated and less developed countries to more developed countries. Spatial 'sectoralization' occurs both on a global scale (to be seen in the dichotomy of industrial/raw-material countries) and on a national scale, where within the basic dichotomies rural/urban, centre/periphery, there are industrial regions of intensive agriculture or horticulture, tourism and recreation regions as well as marginal and depressed areas. The ensuing result is the deterioration of environmental conditions occurring both in the rural areas (small 'agricultural' towns included) which are slowly becoming empty and decaying backwater regions, deprived of their young and most active elements, and in the urban areas which are typified by over-concentration of population, technology, noise, pollution, traffic congestion-with all its social and physical consequences. In order to check and control trends of migration, mitigate the ill-effects of polarization and restore the socio-ecological balance in the country as a whole, serious planning efforts are needed. The primary objective is to create possibilities for development - both economic and socio-cultural - f o r the depressed (marginal) regions which are lagging behind the national standards, thus enabling the bulk of people to realize their individual potentials and aspirations 'on the spot' rather than to make them migrate out of the region. The same applies to raising the civilizational standard as well as economic and socio-cultural attractiveness of the 'non-metropolitan' countryside, in order to stop mass migration to

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big cities as only places where more sophisticated human needs could be satisfied. A most effective instrument to bring this about is comprehensive regional planning. In order to make planning really comprehensive, it is necessary not only to apply an integrated social science approach, which takes care of the complexity and interdependence of economic, social, psychological, political and cultural components of man's developmental effort, but also of biological setting. Comprehensive planning means environmental planning. The environmental approach provides a new and promising insight into our problem and should, therefore, be carefully examined and applied. 3.

THE IMPLICATIONS FOR TRAINING REGIONAL PLANNERS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The integrated social science approach implies a collaboration of specialists - acting in a team or individually - mainly on a theoretical plane. On a practical plane it calls for trained planners who would have sound academic background in one of the social sciences, understand and appreciate the language and method of other social science disciplines, be 'open' to the technological side of development processes and be eager to know what is going on in this field and what could possibly be relevant to the social side. A training programme should not be an assemblage of shortened courses dealing with the substance matter and method of relevant social science disciplines (here trend reports with an annotated bibliography would suffice). It should be problem-oriented, 'directly related to the processes or operations of regional development planning' (Perloff, 1971, p. 3). It should centre around: (1) key theoretical 'problem clusters' and concepts relevant to the general subject matter; (2) concrete practical problems illuminated by theoretical considerations. As to the subject matters suggested below, we deliberately exclude economic themes. These, clearly enough, will have to be included in the training programmes (although the 'social' is a prerequisite and ultimate objective of development, nonetheless, the 'economic' remains its main vehicle). It should also be said that the list of subjects and concepts to be considered in training programmes does not claim to be exhaustive. Here are the proposed new subject matters (curriculum components) in training programmes:

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Planning as a social process (including sociology of planning); Planning as a profession (planner's savoir-faire); Social morphology; social structure; psycho-social infrastructure; Social communication in regional development; Problems of public participation in regional development; Social welfare services (including human resources development); Urbanization and integrated urban/rural development; Problems of human environment in regional development. Here are the new social science concepts13 to be introduced in teaching: With regard to regional development - centre/periphery; types of regions (Stöhr): core, resource ('active' peripheral), depressed ('passive' peripheral), stagnating ('neutral' peripheral); 'horizontal' and 'vertical' development (Stöhr); 'spread' and 'backwash' effects (Myrdal); 'trickling down' and 'polarization' effects (Hirschman); 'social development poles' (Friedmann); 'regional social space' (Diaz); promoters, subject-objects and beneficiaries of development (Utria); ex post and ex-ante approach to regional development-oriented social science research (Kuklinski, Diaz), systems approach (Hilhorst). With regard to planning - 'allocative' and 'innovative' planning (Friedmann); 'political' and 'technical' functions of planning (Perloff); 'process' vs. 'target' planning (Stöhr); 'actors' in regional planning (Morsink). With regard to social structure - social macro-structures, microstructures; socio-institutional framework (Grosman, Morsink); dominance-dependency (Morsink); key (critical/groups (ECAFE); marginality (Riesman). With regard to communication - micro-communication and macrocommunication level (Childers); communication-gap (Childers). With regard to public participation - openness to innovation and change (Inkeles); innovation-awareness and innovation-adoption (Childers); effective motivation (ECAFE); personality-effect (ECAFE); social mobilization (Deutsch). With regard to urbanization - 'latent' and 'manifest' urbanization; planes of urbanization; demographic, economic, physical, socio-cultural. With regard to human environment - 'good environment'; traditional and technological environment, segmentalization of human environment; social functions and variables of human environment. 13. This should rather read 'relatively new'. Mentioning an author's name does not necessarily mean that a given concept appeared originally in this author's writings.

The integrated social science approach to regional planning 4.

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THE PROBLEM OF VALUES IN REGIONAL PLANNING

Each plan - be it national or regional - is produced in terms of the actual valuations of the government that is responsible for its formulation and execution. Ά plan is fundamentally a political programme' (Myrdal, 1968, p. 1881). The political - as contrasted to the technical - function of planning, i.e., the setting of objectives, the formulation of alternatives and the definition of criteria for choosing between them is unavoidably valueloaded. The identification of the value premises of the policy maker is of great significance for the regional plan. Firstly, it allows the plan to acquire a more comprehensive and rational character. Planning, consisting of collection and analysis of data, discussion, decision-taking, education and information campaign, is in itself a highly 'rationalized' process. Secondly, planning is to a very large extent an art of choosing among various possible actions and priorities. Therefore, the planner must take into consideration some fundamental values underlying the development process and adopt them as guidelines for establishing the ultimate criteria of the latter. The following may be considered fundamental values to regional development efforts: social equalization, national integration and, connected therewith, preservation of socio-cultural identity of regional communities and groups. They should not be treated as highsounding generalities but rather as concrete proposals for action (for example, in 'job-creating' policies, in housing policies, in democratizing the decision-making process, in dealing with ethnic minorities, etc.). Thirdly, a critical analysis and - resulting from it - a heightened consciousness as to the nature of values underlying the development process enables the policy makers to achieve the closest possible approximation to the solution of people's problems and the fulfilment of their desires and aspirations. Fourthly, it helps in avoiding various inadequacies of decisionmaking in respect to regional planning, such as casuistic approach to problem solving, vagueness in establishing criteria for planning, lack of democracy, partiality, inconsistency and inefficiency in decision-making (cf. Mlinar, 1971). But our attention is naturally focused on the main actor of the whole process, the planner himself. The sociological problems connected with the category of people called 'regional planners' and with their profession are very broad indeed, including among others the division of this large and rather heterogeneous group into smaller and more homogeneous

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categories (each playing a different role in the planning team and endowed with different authority), their numerical strength, composition, social origin, type of education, social prestige attached to their activity. But perhaps the most interesting - and relevant - problem is the regional planner's 'ideology'. Penetration to the motivations behind his activity, to all the value judgements, preferences and prejudices, has a considerable importance for the understanding of the nature and course of the processes caused by regional planning. Planning, like every form of intellectual activity, is determined by social conditions (the view that human thought is conditioned by social existence has given rise, as is known, to a new branch of sociology - the sociology of knowledge; Merton (1945). The regional planner is influenced by the civilization of which he is a part; by the way of life of his nation, by its tradition and sociopolitical system; by his class affiliation; and by his professional interests. The problem is even more intricate when the regional planner, born in a given country, is educated abroad, as happens very often in developing countries; or, when he comes from outside, for example, as an expert of an international organization, bringing with him, according to all rules of ethno-centrism, the whole armoury of preconceived ideas. The regional planner's 'ideology' is formed under the impact of all these factors, and it reveals itself in many ways. The regional planner may approve or disapprove of greater regional autonomy, 'regional equalization' and the idea of 'general coverage' in investment, the spreading of urbanization and the growth of squatter settlements as its inevitable phase, the vision of rural society as against industrial-urban society, the economic development as a means to achieve a wider goal, i.e., social progress, etc. He may be aware of the ideological flavour of his views, or, as happens more often, he may act without regard for these considerations. But without tracing his judgements to their ideological roots in society, his activity cannot be raised to a higher level of methodological maturity. This is the only way in which the limitations of the regional planner's views can become apparent in his own eyes and in which deformations can be avoided in the future. The problem of values in planning processes is of crucial importance for planners, administrators and policy-makers as well as for the community at large. It seems that'ideology of regional development' could be considered as one of the new - and vital - subject matters both for study and training. Besides examining conflicts among values held by different

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groups involved in the planning process, one of its main components should be the review of values contained in resolutions of international organizations, in government programmes and in academic teaching and research. Needless to say, this can be done only through an integrated social science approach. Involved here are particularly sociology (sociology of knowledge, political sociology), social psychology, theory of information, social philosophy, political science. REFERENCES

Eister, A. W. (1964) Social structure. In J. Gould & W. L. Kolb (Eds.), A dictionary of the social sciences. New York, UNESCO/The Free Press. ECAFE (1966) Preparatory working group of experts on methods of inducing social change for overall development: Final report. Bangkok, Thailand. 10-14 January. ECLA (1964) Popular participation and principle of community development in relation to the acceleration of economic and social development, Economic Bulletin for Latin America, 9 (2). Hermansen, T. (1968) Information systems for regional development control, Papers of the Regional Science Association. Vol. 23. Iatridi, D. (1966) Social scientists in physical development planning: A practitioner's viewpoint, International Social Science Journal, 18 (4). Indian National Institute of Community Development (1965) Emerging patterns of rural leadership in Southern Asia: Report on an international round table conference. Hyderabad (published in collaboration with the UNESCO Research Centre on Social and Economic Development in Southern Asia, Delhi). Kapp, Κ. W. (1965) Social economics and social welfare minima. In Τ. Κ. N. Unnithan et al. (Eds.), Towards a sociology of culture in India: Essays in honour of Professor D. P. Mukerji. New Delhi. Kolb, W. L. (1964) Social integration. In J. Gould & W. L. Kolb (Eds.), A dictionary of the social sciences. New York, UNESCO/The Free Press. Kulkarni, P. D. (1965) Social policy in India. Bombay, Tata Institute of Social Sciences. Merton, R. K. (1945) Sociology of knowledge. In G. Gurvitch & W. E. Moore (Eds.), Twentieth century sociology. New York, Philosophical Library. Mlinar, Z. (1971) Social values and decision-making in city planning, The New Atlantis, 2 (2). Morsink, H. J. A. (1971) Sociological aspects of regional development and of planning for regional development: Some issues and areas for further exploration. Geneva. In this volume pp. 461-487. Myrdal, G. (1958) Paper read at the International Conference of Social Work, Tokyo. (1968) Asian drama: An enquiry into poverty of nations. Vol. 3. London, Allen Lane, The Penguin Press. Newcombe, Τ. M. (1964) Motivation. In J. Gould & W. L. Kolb (Eds.), A dictionary of the social sciences. New York, UNESCO/The Free Press. Perloff, H. S. (1971) Education for regional planning in less developed countries. In D. M. Dunham & J. G. M. Hilhorst (Eds.), Issues in regional planning. The Hague, The Institute of Social Studies. Resources for the Future/Staff Study (1966) Design for a worldwide study of regional development: A report to the United Nations on a proposed research-training program. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press.

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Rowland, J. Ο. M. (1969) Training in comprehensive regional development and planning: Material for discussion. Geneva, UNRISD. Smelser, N. J. (1963) Mechanisms of change and adjustment to change. In B. F. Hoselitz & W. E. Moore (Eds.), Industrialization and society. The Hague, UNESCO/Mouton. Stöhr, W. B. (1971) Regional planning as a necessary tool for the comprehensive development of a country. Paper presented at the Interregional Symposium on Training of Planners for Comprehensive Regional Development, Warsaw. 14-28 June. UNESCO (1963) Social prerequisites of economic growth. Report of an Expert Working Group. Kyrenia, Cyprus. 17-26 April. United Nations (1970) Rural community development and planning: Promise and reality, International Social Development Review, 2. United Nations (1971) United Nations Interregional Symposium on Training of Planners for Comprehensive Regional Development: Final report. Warsaw. 14-28 June. Wright, D. M. (1964) Economics. In J. Gould & W. L. Kolb (Eds.), A dictionary of the social sciences. New York, UNESCO/The Free Press. Ziolkowski, J. A. (1967) Sociological problems of regional development. In Proceedings of the First Scandinavian-Polish Regional Science Seminar. Warsaw. (1970) Urbanization and integrated rural-urban development. In Κ. B. Madhava (Ed.), International development 1969: Challenges to prevalent ideas on development. New York, Society for International Development.

Η. J. Α. MORSINK

5

Sociological aspects of regional development and of planning for regional development: Some issues and areas for further exploration

PURPOSE AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISCUSSION PAPER

1. This paper aims at reviewing some sociological aspects of regional development and at indicating some issues and areas in which further exploration is needed. As such, the function of this paper is to provide a basis for discussions. 2. The present paper does not start out with a definition of the term 'sociology' but instead makes an attempt throughout its pages to outline, in a rather operational perspective, some of the major issues and areas for possible sociological exploration. In so far as the focus of analysis is on institutions in a sociological sense of the word, the expression 'institutional' aspects of regional development is used several times throughout the text. 3. The term 'regional' development1 is used throughout this discussion paper to denote processes and activities affecting population and human activities in space and which: (a) have as their main aim the improvement of living conditions of the population at large, (b) reflect a multidimensional approach towards development and (c) take a region as the essential unit in organizing these activities. The focus of the paper is on 'intra'-regional development. At several points, however, attention will be directed to sociological aspects of 'inter'-regional development. 4. The emphasis of the paper is on developing countries or areas. In these countries planning has been widely adopted. However, the term 1. For some current connotations of this term see Frie imann & Alonso (1964) and Misra (1969).

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'development' is meant in this paper to be distinct from the term 'planning' because development of regions has been observed also where no planning has taken place, while on the other hand little development has been observed in some regions for which elaborate plans had been prepared and for which a more permanent planning machinery had been created administratively. In principle, however, planning is considered in this paper as a major tool for fostering regional development. 5. In line with these distinctions, the present paper is organized in three closely inter-related parts: 1. focussing on regional development (whether planned or un-planned) and its sociological aspects; 2. focussing on the process of plan formulation for regional development and in particular on the question of building institutions, allowing the 'beneficiaries' of a regional plan more voice in its formulation; 3. presenting in a tentative way a perspective and an approach for exploring the sociological aspects of regional development, drawing on the elements discussed in Parts 1 and 2.

1.

SOCIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

In what fields of regional development do policy-makers and practitioners most urgently need insight into its sociological aspects? This question can be answered partially and tentatively by analyzing the main policy objectives of regional projects. An analysis of a dozen regional and zonal development projects2 in different continents shows that for all but one project economic development of the region was the prime objective. In eight projects transformation of the entire social structure was aimed at directly or indirectly and in three of these projects this objective was certainly essential.3 Integration of a region into the 2. This selection is arbitrary and reflects only the personal experience of the author of this paper, in the Chrysopoulos district in Greece, the Enfida and Medjerda projects in Tunisia, the Liberation province of the United Arab Republic, the Ghab and Euphrates projects in Syria, the eastern and western regions of Saudi-Arabia, the Warsaw district in Poland, Slovakia in Czechoslovakia, the Kosmet region in Yugoslavia, the Karamoja district in Uganda, and the Cankuzo and Mosso areas in Burundi. 3. In five projects improvement of existing settlement patterns or introduction of entirely new settlement patterns was simultaneously pursued under the programme (Enfida in Tunisia, Ghab and Euphrates in Syria, Karamoja in Uganda, Cankuzo and Mosso in Burundi). This might constitute a fifth focus for research as suggested in Morsink (1968).

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nation was of primary government concern in two cases.4 Thus, according to the policy objectives of a dozen of regional development efforts, three main fields for inpuiry emerge. And, in so far as all projects depended on guidance by Government, regional policy-making and planning would constitute a fourth main field for inquiry, as follows: (a) sociological aspects of regional economic development; (b) sociological aspects of regional social transformation; (c) sociological aspects of regional and national integration; (d) sociological aspects of regional policy-making and planning for regional development. 1.1 Sociological aspects of regional economic

development

Regional development efforts are sometimes described as attempts at transformation of the socio-economic system, mainly through the development of new activity clusters with strong complementary linkages (RF, 1966; Friedmann, 1966). For the purpose of sociological analysis, it is important to note here that economic development and, in particular, industrial development depend most directly on four categories of people: entrepreneurs, labourers, investors and civil servants.5 There is a need for an analysis of the institutions, values, attitudes6 and social relations of each of these categories of 'actors' and for an indication as to what extent and under what conditions these elements are impediments or assets for economic growth in the context of a regional development project. Specific subjects for exploration in regional projects aiming at industrial development could be, for example:

4. Karamoja in Uganda, Slovakia in Czechoslovakia. 5. See Dr. H. R. Vincent (1968). Dr. Vincent uses this approach in analyzing the relationships between sociological factors and industrial development in lessindustrialized areas of Europe (English summary on pp. 273-293 of his study). 6. The importance of attitudes for economic development has been stressed again by Prof. Tinbergen (1962, pp. 11-13). According to him the most impoitant basic attitudes involved are: (1) an interest in material well-being, (2) a willingness to look ahead, (3) a willingness to take risks, (4) an interest in technology, (5) a willingness to cooperate, (6) an ability to persist and (7) a willingness to accept 'the rules of the game'. He stresses also that these attitudes (or their absence) are inter-dependent with the environment in which a population lives.

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THEIR PREVAILING ATTITUDES

THEIR PREVAILING

ETC.

SOCIAL STRUCTURE

For example

For example

(a) entrepreneurs their interest in cooperating

size of firms type of management organization and efficiency (b) investors their preferred investment place in the social their attitude toward risk-taking structure (c) labourers their aspirations labour unions their frame of reference their individualism (d) civil servants motivation place in the social frame of reference structure Though industrialization is often the main path chosen for development of regions, not less important in number, size or potential economic impact are regional projects which heavily rely on progress in agriculture. In rural development projects several main categories of 'contributors to economic progress' can be distinguished (e.g., farmers, civil servants, outside investors), and an approach similar to the one described above might be followed for analysis. Yet a different approach seems preferable. Rural regional projects are often vast in sheer size and population, and the population categories are usually more geographically dispersed in small clusters and less neatly 'registered' in officialfilesand census reports than in the case of an industrial regional project. For this reason it may prove advisable to proceed in rural regional projects with the collection of data and with their analysis according to practical 'problem clusters'. Some of these problem clusters are, land-tenure systems, the institutional aspects of the economic structure of rural communities, the impact of poverty on attitudes and on social relations, local and regional social stratification and its impact on change, family organization and wider kinship groupings, informal groupings and the potential role of formal associations, exchange labour systems and wage labour systems, the impact of religion, of tradition, of illiteracy and the potential impact of improved communications on changing old values, attitudes and aspirations. For each of these problem clusters the purpose of analysis would be to determine the positive and negative impact of institutions or

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their absence on economic change in the region and to indicate alternative solutions or improvements over the prevailing situation. 1.2 Sociological aspects of regional social transformation Several regional development projects have explicitly the wider aim not only of increasing production but of completely transforming the whole social structure of the area concerned. Thus the Syrian Government considers the Ghab area on the Orontes River as the model area for implantation of her land-reform measures and for the introduction of a new socialist society. In the Kosmet in Yugoslavia, similar wide aims have been pursued since the Second World War. In Uganda, the Government wishes to arrive at a complete change in the way of life of the pastoral people in the remote and vast district of Karamoja. Social change and institutional change are closely related. In the context of specific regional projects an effort should be made: (a) to investigate why greater institutional change had not occurred before and, on the basis of this inquiry, (b) to indicate core areas in the institutional system where a breakthrough might be tried. Both questions entail research of elements of the social system of the particular region. On the first major subject: 'reasons for stagnation', exploration should focus first on the prevailing attitudes and aspirations, in particular in the field of economics and education and on the predominant habits, usages, norms and traditions. However, equal (perhaps more) attention should be given to the social structure of the region, in particular to the existing social hierarchies based on the distribution of wealth, power and prestige. Here core topics for research should be: the position of the elite, the 'clientele' or 'patronage' system in the region, size and aspirations of both the old and new middle classes, the extent to which the lower class is exercising its civil rights and is able to participate in the life of the region; and ways and means of upward social mobility. It seems important, particularly in developing countries, not to limit research to the population of male sex. Women are 'the other 50 %' and mostly do the hard work. Their position is crucial for the success or failure of any real social transformation at local or regional level. The role of power should be a main subject for research on social or institutional transformation in selected regional development projects. By power is meant here: the possibility, on the part of a person or group, to restrict other persons or groups in the choice of their behaviour in

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pursuance of his or its purpose. For example, the stress laid in the past in the theory and practice of Community Development on 'changing attitudes' should be complemented with efforts to widen the choices of behaviour for those who have meanwhile changed their attitudes. Power can be used not only to promote change but also to restrict the aspirations of competent youth, of competent farmers, of competent women. Some elements of power which need precise analysis in order to arrive at suggestions for institutional change are: the base of existing power (economic, physical force, prestige, intelligence, etc.); the forms of power exercise (force, domination through symbols, manipulation, etc.); the goals of those who exercise power (to gain control over information, over economic goods, etc.); and, above all, the accepted institutionalization of the power process in the region concerned (Van Doorn, 1962). The questions suggested here for analysis of power structures lead to the second major question, namely, to present ideas on how to arrive at change in the institutions of the region concerned. In the past much thinking and action has been on changing values and aspirations, mainly through the use of education in its broadest sense and to a lesser extent through improved communications with the outside world. These two problem clusters (education and communication) remain valid foci for both research and action under a regional development programme. But more strongly than before attention and action should now focus on developing functional formal organizations of all kinds, which in themselves can constitute new elements of power, new avenues for action and new channels of education and communication. To some extent these new organizations can appeal to feelings of solidarity already existing within the region but never expressed among different categories of the population: farmers, factory labourers, women, youth. In a rural regional project, for example, one or more of the following functional formal organizations might be developed: cooperatives, farm development committees, credit organizations, general farmers associations (such as a regional agricultural society); regional commodity organizations (e.g., of cotton growers, citrus growers); special purpose regional commodity organizations (e.g., a regional cotton insurance board, a regional citrus loan board); regional branches of youth organizations, women's associations, regional and local branches of the national political party of the farmers union, of labour unions, etc. The study of the transition from informal to functional and formal organizations is a central area for successful regional development. This

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exploration, in the context of regional development, should comprise these core fields: ANALYSIS OF STATUS QUO

ANALYSIS OF MEANS OF CHANGE

For example

For example

1. (a) attitudes, values, etc. (b) social stratification, position of women, power structure

2. (a) education and communication (b) functional formal organizations

Starting from these core fields, other related subjects can be gradually incorporated and integrated into the research perspective. 1.3 Sociological aspects of regional identity and national integration This field of inquiry should cover social integration and feelings of identity within individual regions and its complementary aspect: the integration of individual regions into the life of the nation. 1.3.1 Internal integration of individual regions Here politicians and other policy-makers are faced with at least three major questions: (1) To what extent does a 'regional community' exist in a given region? (2) For what development purposes does this regional cohesion provide an advantage? (3) If no 'regional cohesion' is found in a project but its emergence is considered desirable, how can such cohesion be promoted? (1) The degree of social integration within a given geographical area can be identified by research of the geographical distribution of prevailing patterns of social relations such as trade relations, informal exchange of labour, inter-marriage, extended family bonds, visiting, etc. Maps can be prepared reflecting the data collected about the frequency, regularity, extent and harmony of each of these social interactions. In addition, data can be collected and mapped concerning values, aspirations and expectations shared by persons living in a certain territory. Together, these maps can provide an insight into the social integration of an area. In many cases a geographical area which on such maps is marked by a high degree of social integration will coincide with a 'region' in the sense

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of a regional identity. Yet, the question of identity is not necessarily the same as the question of social integration and has to be investigated separately. This, for instance, by questions probing into the degree of awareness of a shared territory among the inhabitants and with questions concerning names and symbols indicating the territory and its boundaries to its inhabitants. (2) Assuming that a region's inhabitants show a high degree of social interaction and of sharing of values and, moreover, an awareness of the region as 'their' territory, the question arises: for which developmental purposes does this constitute an asset? This question is of pivotal importance for the current assumptions underlying efforts in many countries to promote programmes of'regional development'. Some illustrations of items to be looked into are: a) Economic development: Does the feeling of regional identity and pride facilitate the acceptance of innovations by the inhabitants, e.g., of new industries or of the idea of women working in factories, etc. Does the regional network of informal social relations among farmers facilitate the dissemination of technical news items in agriculture? b) Physical planning in relation to services: Does the higher degree of social interaction within the region lead to a more intense use by the population of available services such as repair shops for agricultural tools and machines, credit banks, schools, hospitals? c) Social transformation: Does greater regional cohesion facilitate the processes of change? Also, does a high degree of regional integration attenuate the socially undesirable side effects of rural-urban migration in case this migration is directed to towns within the region? d) Planned development: Does a high degree of regional integration facilitate the process of national and regional planning, during the stages of plan formulation (requiring consultation of the population) and during the stage of plan implementation (requiring perhaps even physical labour by the population of the region under 'community' projects)? e) Development of political institutions in the region: The development of regional political institutions is usually seen as the symbol of regional identity and power. It should be noted that in case a strong regional cohesion exists, at least one important element for political institution building is available. However, two other elements required for building political institutions are leaders and urgent problems (on which the leaders can focus popular action).

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(3) Once it has been found by research that in certain regions the existence of regional identity and cohesion is a positive factor in developing that region, the question arises: how can such regional cohesion and identity be promoted in regions which lack it as yet. This again is a valid question for research which in this connection can focus, e.g., on regional values transmitted in the educational system and, secondly, on regional, traditional festivities and on new ceremonies which can strengthen feelings of regional cohesion, identity and belonging among the inhabitants. 1.3.2 The problem of integrating individual regions into the life of the nation This, so to speak 'inter-regional', aspect of 'intra-regional' integration is of major concern to several Governments in the world today. The central question here is to determine the degree of institutional autonomy which society can allow to one of its territorial 'sub-systems' without endangering the cohesion of the total system. The complementary question for the individual region is: how much 'external integration' of the region into wider society can be allowed, without endangering the desirable degree of internal integration and cohesion within the region. It is obvious that research on these two complementary questions can usefully be done only on the concrete context of specific societies and specific regions. It is also to be noted that these two complementary questions can be asked about each specific sphere of life: economic, political, military, etc. But always from the 'sociological' vantage point aiming at exploring which alternative variety of institutional structure at the national and at regional level will produce the equilibrium which best promotes simultaneously the development of the individual region and of the nation as a whole.

2.

SOCIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF POLICY-MAKING AND PLANNING FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

2.1 Social relationships affecting plan formulation for regional development Though it is difficult to determine at which point in policy-making for regional development the term 'planning' becomes appropriate, it is certain that in its fullest sense the term intra-regional development planning implies:

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(1) That a model of the intended future regional situation has been or will be drawn up in respect to: (a) specific human activities (economic, administrative, etc.) (b) their location in the region (c) physical structures, installations, which are to provide the physical environment for these activities and (2) That a programme of action has been, or will be, formulated with a view to achieving the situation represented in the model. In actual practice few countries have evolved such full planning in respect to regional development. In some cases elaborate regional blueprints have been prepared which were not adhered to, and planning offices were created which soon lost contact with actual developments in the region for which their planning was supposed to promote economic growth and social transformation and to improve patterns of human settlement. This discouraging experience in several developing countries should provide an inspiration for an empirical and down-to-earth approach in choosing a focus for sociological research into the institutional aspects of planning for regional development. The effectiveness of planning depends not only on the number and competence of professional planners, but also on the convergence of ideas, feelings and aspirations of all involved in planning and affected by planning and, on the other hand, on the kind of social relationships and interactions between all concerned. Sociologically, regional planning can be viewed as a purpose-oriented 'system'. Assuming that the public interest can be defined and pursued through coherent regional policies, sociological research supporting regional planning in developing countries can usefully focus on the extent to which the prevailing social relations and attitudes in the region allow regional planning to acquire a comprehensive and rational character. This analysis will help economists, physical planners and others to be realistic about the content, scope and process of their porposals. Thus, as regards plan formulation the analysis should identify the planning ideas, planning objectives, planning principles and planning criteria on which there is some agreement among different population groups and categories, and those on which there is no agreement among different population groups and categories, or even conflict of opinion. Practice shows that regional plans reflecting only the opinions of planning officials, but which are opposed by major interest groups, will remain ineffective.

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In this connection, sociological research has also to make explicit the often implicit planning ideas of certain groups, e.g., the desire to prevent social upheaval, or their lack of belief in social progress, or their possibly 'anti' attitudes in planning, etc. As regards the social relationships relevant to the planning process, research should identify the existing distribution of power between different groups and categories in order to help find a degree and form of planning which has a fair chance of becoming operational. An analysis of the institutions prevailing in the region (and in the nation) should throw light on: a) the realistic scope of the regional plan. Could it be a modest start with planning in selected sectors, but not yet integrated? Is integrated multi-sectoral planning feasible? or are all groups involved really ripe for comprehensive regional planning now? b) The abvisable function of plans in relation to regional development: Should they be merely advisory? Are restrictive types of plans easier to implement? Is a plan merely coordinating already accepted policies more realistic as a start? c) The devices for plan implementation. Which devices are now acceptable to the population and to specific groups? Persuasion, inducement, compulsion, direct government operations, joint public-private ventures, special legislation, taxation? d) The administrative arrangements (organizational structure and processes) for plan preparation and execution, involving among others an assessment of the operational efficiency of the bureaucratic structures (in particular as regards the interference of social stratification and of the 'patronage' system) and of the extent to which institutions have been created to allow persons outside government to become involved in regional plan formulation and implementation, e.g., particular interest groups and the population at large. 2.2 Institution building for wider popular participation in regional plan formulation Some governments have publicly recognized wider popular participation as one of the ultimate goals of development, but sociological research should determine if their leaders have defined its meaning and content in operational terms and whether any policy can be discerned in relation to popular participation in the life of the nation.

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At the same time, research should explore the institutional implications of the fact that in many countries the political climate remains unresponsive to effective involvement of the entire population in the economic, social and administrative and political decisions facing the nation in its process of development and that the majority of the people have long been excluded from the tasks of government and the furthering of development, or of the fact that while 'present lines of economic growth and social change are of a nature to exclude rather than foster popular participation', 'there is only lukewarm support in central policy and decision-making layers for creating instruments of local institutional change and participation' (ECLA, 1964, pp. 227-228; 1969, pp. 352, 370, 375). Attitudes prevailing in key-groups such as the local power elites, local business circles, the church, the military, the press, have to be explored as regards the extent to which support to further democratization is being given. In some countries the prevailing centre-local relationship, between the capital city and the rest of the country and between the central Government and authorities at lower levels, has not facilitated any initiative towards broadening the basis of democracy (ECLA, 1965). It is noteworthy that it is in particular in relation to this latter group of countries that professional persons dealing with regional planning have opened discussions on the broad issues of the 'models' for the society of the future. Discussions sponsored by the United Nations 7 point to a high degree of consensus among professional specialists from Eastern Europe, Western Europe and Latin America as regards the ultimate goal of social transformation and democratization of society in regional planning and in regional plans. In practice, however, there is an increased risk that goals in regional policies and regional plans become ambivalent in a situation where government leaders and politicians have not yet defined their concept of wider 'popular participation' (and, in fact, may wish to use planned social change in order to prevent upheaval) while, on the other hand, the planning profession may wish to insert progressive democratic ideas into the future 'model'. In order to get their goals accepted in such a situation, planners may feel tempted to promise at the same time (but to different groups in the region): preservation and change, past and future. Goals presenting

7. Workshop on the Sociology of Regional Development, held in Geneva on 11, 12 and 13 November 1968 at the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development.

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such different faces may at first obtain common consent practically without scrutiny. It may, however, prove difficult to translate such goals later into quantified targets and to implement such goals as various groups will gradually discover the points on which the plan contradicts their group interests and their view of 'popular participation' for others. Whether or not wider popular participation is among the explicitly recognized goals of regional planning, any public planning, including, regional planning, is usually considered to be more valid and effective the more it is: (a) rational, (b) comprehensive and (c) reflecting the interests of those for whom the plan is made. Here the question arises as to what extent regional planners, including those who aspire to a complete transformation of social structure, do themselves meet these three criteria in their formulation of regional policies and regional plans. Regional development planning as a profession is only emerging now. However, a closely related professional specialist of established academic standing is the city planner, whose claim towards building for a new society at city-scale show a remarkable resemblance with the claims of today's regional planners towards constructing a new society at a regional scale. Evaluations have been made of city planners' professional performances and of the plans they produce. A sociological evaluation of western town and country planning (in particular in the United States and Great Britain) was made by Ruth Glass (1959). This evaluation points out that in the planning profession the 'planners', namely, the architects, engineers, surveyors and administrators, are all specialists in their own field, used to a mechanistic mode of thought and that each one considers planning as a new professional label added to his previous one. As regards the reflection of the people's best interests in the plans, Ruth Glass notes that planners in Great Britain under-estimate people's desire and capacity to change, stress the preservation of the status quo, take their own subjective preferences to be objective and universal, and easily call the interests of some groups 'the public interest'. It should be noted that this evaluation focussed on a country with a universally recognized high standard of training and professional competence among its planning profession. Thomas A. Reiner (1963) upon analysis of 20 city plans presented during the period 1896-1947 by world famous town-planners, concludes regarding their logical consistency that in many cases the conclusions simply do not follow from stated assumptions; that often, however,

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neither goals nor assumptions are clearly stated; that often also neither the source nor the degree of certainty of the goals are identified. As regards comprehensiveness, he notes that sometimes the entire economic or social situation of the planned city is left out of consideration and in general that there is little recognition by the planners of the limitations of their approaches. Insofar as some regional planners today pretend to accurately reflect the wishes of the population by mixing their own ideological views with their professional thinking, it may be interesting to note that Reiner could not detect in the city plans he reviewed a consistency of approach according to the political bias of the authors. Fran?oise Choay (1965) analyzes the basic ideas and ideals which have inspired town and country planners including Walter Gropius, Le Corbusier, Camille Sitte, Ebenezer Howard, Raymond Unwin, Frank Lloyd Wright, Eugene Howard, Iannis Xanakis, Patrick Geddes, Marcel Poete, Lewis Mumford and Keven Lynch. She brilliantly demonstrates to what extent in various parts of the world planners have taken their own subjective preferences and value systems to be objective and universal. In her conclusions she therefore warns the citizen not to be misled by the myth of 'scientific' town and country planning. The idea itself of scientific town and country planning is in her opinion one of the myths of the industrial society. These notes on recent evaluations of the contribution made by town and country planners confirm the urgency of raising the question among regional planners as well as to what extent regional planners do take their subjective 'models' for the future of society in certain regions to be objective and universal in the sense of reflecting the true interests of the population at large. It is true that there is a growing feeling that construction of models or of preconceived schemes of social progress is not feasible and that attention should focus on the identification and definition of values and goals to guide planning as a 'continuing and open-ended process'. This recognition does not, however, in any way diminish the urgency of the basic question, which can be re-formulated as follows: how can regional planners ensure that planning becomes more rational, more comprehensive and more truly a reflection of the people's aspirations, needs and demands? At present, most regional planners are located in national civil services, mainly in national capitals, a few in capitals of regions or districts. These regional planners deal mainly with problems of disaggregation of national targets and with problems of aggregation of local targets into intra-

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regional plans within the framework of the directives contained in the national plan. But what degree of popular participation can be brought about in relation to the formulation of intra-regional (or 'mono-regional') plans and policies? The view has been expressed that the region is the level where the forces behind social problems originate, where specific solutions can best be found and where efforts can best be pooled to implement the suggested solutions (Utria, 1968, esp. pp. 31-35). This view does not exclude that there may be clear conflict of interests among political and economic forces operating in the region. For instance, conflicts among established forces within the region (e.g., among business men, between importers and local producers, between crop farmers and livestock producers) and conflicts between the regional 'establishment' and newly emerging forces. In relation to formulating a regional plan some of the following groups (compare Le Compte, 1969) will have some interests to promote or to defend: a) the government, represented by its planning office and by local offices of vertical central government organizations (e.g., Ministries and agencies for public works, agriculture, mining, education); b) local politicians, representing to some extent the interests of local power elites, big landowners, large industries, business and utilities, etc.; c) 'service institutions', including government sponsored banks and credit institutions; d) foreign technical assistance in the region; e) medium and smaller private enterprises, perhaps represented in a chamber of commerce; f) the large majority of the population: the adult male population, often mainly peasants and labourers, (perhaps represented in peasant and labour organizations), adult women and youth. Sociological research can shed some more light on the crucial issue at stake here, namely, to what extent these groups differ in: a) amount and type of political power, social prestige and economic resources which they can marshal to buttress their aspirations concerning the content of the regional plan; b) their interests in relation to the plan (big business is interested in profit and sometimes shows non-economic prestige behaviour, small landowners may be primarily interested in the defence of old rights;

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governments may wish to protect tax values or to protect land for public use, or to promote economic development); c) their internal organization and external relations (e.g., local government offices may show lack of coordination between different agencies; small farmers may not at all be organized); d) to whom the group is responsible (foreign technical assistance experts do report to foreign government or international organizations; a big corporation reports to the parent company and to stockholders; small enterprises report only to themselves). As regards the degree of internal organization and as regards the impact of external relations of collectivities, the ECLA study Social change and social development policy in Latin America (1969, 376 pages) presents a most valuable analytical framework for classifying them. That study provides moreover several examples of the importance of such organizations and associations in obtaining a voice for categories of the population hitherto excluded from active participation in the process of decisionmaking in public affairs. Sociological research may also help in clarifying for regional planners to what extent the inclusion of these groups and interests in the process of plan formulation may: a) provide the planner and all participants with more information about the interest to be represented in the plan; b) assist the planner in formulating more realistically goals, objectives and targets; c) assist the planner in allocating means more realistically; d) make people aware that the regional plan is not being imposed by outsiders formulating a plan chez nous, sur nous et sans nous and in that sense it may promote identification of the population with the plan; e) help mobilize resources available within the region in terms of finance, land, labour and commitments; f) facilitate progress in mutual trust and understanding to a point where several parties participating in regional plan formulation may be willing to commit themselves contractually to perform their tasks as envisaged in the plan (even without such contractual commitments, it may facilitate early adoption of the plan at the regional level); g) encourage continuous evaluation of the plan and its implementation by all concerned insofar as this implies an element of continuing mutual control or general supervision by all those who participated in the formulation of the plan.

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In all the above listed respects it can be said that an effective inclusion of these groups makes the planning process perhaps more rational, certainly more comprehensive, and definitely more democratic. It seems useful for research on popular participation in plan formulation to distinguish between 'participation' in the sense of expressing an opinion without taking responsibility for its implementation; and participation in the sense of accepting a responsibility for its implementation in terms of finances, labour, or moral commitment. This distinction permits us to see more clearly the difference in maximum 'participation' which each group can possibly enjoy. On the other hand, even when 'participation' means only an exchange of views and opinions, research on such participation in plan formulation should establish how it can be made real and effective, as distinct from a ceremonial 'pseudo-participation' on ineffective committees or boards whose decisions will be ignored, mislaid or otherwise made ineffective. As regards the organizational structure for wider popular participation in the process of plan formulation at the regional level research should focus on solutions which can be tried, within the region of their jurisdiction, by existing regional planning offices and agencies such as: a) an ad hoc advisory council with, for instance, some members appointed and others elected, directly or indirectly. The council's elected members could be chosen from among the general public or from special interest groups as listed above; b) a permanent advisory council; c) public hearings on draft regional plans prepared by the regional planning office; d) a 'people's spokesman' assigned and paid by the regional planning office to take initiative in exploring the demands of all groups in the region in order to transmit them to the regional planners for their consideration. This official would be open to public suggestions as to the content of the regional plan. He would be in close contact with all groups mentioned before. An essential characteristic of his function would be that he would be free to take the initiative in making or transmitting suggestions to the regional planning officers. Impartial research on these issues should not fail to identify the obstacles against any of these solutions such as the sparseness of population and the topographical barriers limiting contacts between rural populations and urban centres, the feeling of superiority prevailing among urban residents towards the rural population, the direct intervention of

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business management in public affairs while isolating the resident workers from such public affairs and the suspicion among large segments of the rural population that any official activity is a subterfuge for some new exploitation. Especially important for such applied sociological research aiming at a wider involvement of the population in regional plan formulation at the regional level are the observed attempts by rural populations, for instance, in Latin America, not to link directly with the district level authorities in order to avoid abuse and to link directly with the national level (ECLA, 1965). The practical question for applied sociological research is, therefore, whether any of the suggested institutional solutions can bring about wider population participation in regional plan formulation or whether perhaps a more gradual 'preparation of the ground' would be called for and whether perhaps this preparation might consist of: (a) accepting any of the four suggested forms just mentioned but step by step, for example, as regards the issues to be discussed or the stages of plan formulation at which wider consultations are held, as regards the groups being consulted, as regards the degree of consultation of these groups, etc., or (b) finding other institutional solutions for wider participation of the groups listed before. Whatever solution will be adopted, further sociological exploration is needed also of the role which the State through its civil servants will have to play in two respects: (a) in providing the general framework and guidelines for the formulation of the content of regional plans and (b) in promoting wider popular participation in the regional planning process through information, education and organization of all partners involved in the process of development (United Nations, 1967).

3.

RESEARCH ON SOCIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING: AN APPROACH AND A PERSPECTIVE

There is a growing awareness among Governments and in United Nations circles of the role of sociological factors in development. In line with this growing awareness, the United Nations has been requested to promote research on 'human and institutional' aspects of regional development (Bridel, 1970). Though in the preceding pages some illustrations have been given of the topics which should be investigated it is perhaps appropriate, for the

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purpose of discussion, to present some observations on the scope of the subject under study, on the type of analysis for use in further exploration, on the functional use of such further exploration, on the desired practiceoriented focus of any such study and finally on the selection of priority issues. 3.1 Scope of the subject'. Need for broader 'social science' approach Throughout this paper sociological aspects of regional development have been discussed. The illustrations given and the topics suggested for further exploration indicate, however, that no single academic discipline and no single profession can claim an exclusive competence in dealing with these topics. There are at least some ten academic disciplines which traditionally deal with aspects of the human and institutional side of development. Professionals in this field include, for example, sociologists, economists, demographers, human geographers, psychologists, criminologists, political scientists, public administration specialists, students of law, of religion and social philosophers. Sociologists exploring these issues should call, therefore, not only on fellow-sociologists but also on any one of these professionals (and in any combination of expertise), in order to promote multi-disciplinary study of any given topic if and when needed. 3.2 Kind of analysis suggestedfor use in such applied social science approach Empirical study aiming at alternative solutions to bring about a social structure conducive to regional development should start from an analysis and identification of the main groups and 'actors' involved in the process of regional development and their actual and potential roles under alternative institutional systems. 'Actors' to be included in such analysis are, for example: Inside the region 1. Regional power elite 2. Small and medium enterprises 3. Mass of population Outside the region 4. Investors 5. Entrepreneurs a) for production units b) for 'service institutions' - such as banks 6. Members of liberal professions such as medical doctors 7. National politicians

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This approach to analysis would guarantee, moreover, that adequate attention is given to both the inira-regional aspects and the inter-regional aspects of regional development. 3.3 Role and function of such applied social science research In order to become of any use to policy-makers, applied social science research under any of the headings presented in this paper should be specific. Such studies, in order to obtain a theoretically stimulating level of generalization and in order to profit from international comparative research, could identify countries and regions at similar levels of socioeconomic development and with similar institutional structures. However at a 'higher' level of generalization, it would make for platitudes to discuss the economic aspects of regional development in Karamoja (Uganda), the Ghab (Syria) and Slovakia in statements covering them all. This applies even more to discussions of sheer sociological aspects because rather similar economic stages or situations may be characterized by radically different social structures. For example, among economic regions with so-called 'mediterranean agriculture' there are regions with an oligarchic social structure and others with a more democratic social structure, each with different prospects and possibilities for change. This need to avoid equating sociological traits with economic levels or economic structure becomes even more conspicuous in the realm of values, aspirations and attitudes. Apart from this, National States have different ideologies which in turn influence the whole institutional development of specific regions. Off-hand, one may expect that free enterprise societies will rely heavily on their regional projects or institutions sponsored by private enterprise (e.g., Southern Italy). On the other hand, one may expect that societies adhering to socialist principles will sponsor institutions promoting feelings of solidarity among the masses of farmers and labourers and that in their regional development policies they will rely heavily on such institutions. Applied social science research should be considered in the perspective of its usefulness for assistance in policy-making in the context of regional development efforts in individual countries. The contributions which such research should make include:

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a) analysis of the prevailing social structures with a focus on fields outlined throughout this paper. Emphasis on comparison between the proclaimed higher values of the society concerned (freedom, democracy, social justice, etc.) and the actual social structures in individual regions. b) diagnosis of main discrepancies, e.g., indication of categories of people who are presently excluded from participation in institutions and are thus restricted in their human potential, indication of rifts and splits in the local and regional institutions as they affect, for instance, regional economic development, or the integration of the region into the nation. c) prognosis of future 'spontaneous' developments if no action to correct the situation is taken. This prognosis means most often: estimating the 'probability' that something will or will not happen, for instance, the chance that a certain region will or will not become more fully integrated in the nation in the near future. d) outlining alternative courses of action to deal with incidental or structural problems relating to regional development. It should be stressed, however, that it will be the national political authorities who will have the final decision on the courses of action that will be taken in respect to any of the major policy issues. 3.4 Suggested focus and objective of such interdisciplinary social science study It is important to note that discussions on regional development, time and again, focus attention on 'structural' problems of regions and of nations. For example, the excessive concentration of population in capital cities relates to the basic structure or pattern of population distribution; 'spontaneous' economic development in certain regions and its concommitant social problems of family disintegration, of alcoholism and of prostitution, raises the question of the basic patterns of this type of 'economic' regional development, the 'dominance/dependency' relationship between certain population strata is of a structural nature; the role which certain power groups have been allowed to play over the past decades and centuries is related to the basic structure of the political and administrative system at national, sub-national regional and local level. In such cases the main need at present is for some fresh thinking on alternative systems, alternative patterns, alternative types, alternative

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development policies in the context of regional development efforts. In a search for alternatives inspiration can be found in: (a) empirical study of the experience in different countries of the world and (b) 'creative thinking' in terms of 'futurology'. As regards (a): Upon identification of the main 'actors' in regional development it is interesting to note the different roles which have been given to each of them in the process of regional development in countries such as Algeria, Cuba, Egypt, France, the Netherlands, Poland, Tanzania, Yugoslavia or Zambia. 8 As regards (b): 'Creative thinking' in terms of creating hypothetical 'models' of desirable future institutions and in terms of estimating their relative human costs and benefits has hardly been developed by sociology as a discipline. However, several social scientists are advancing into the field of 'futurology'. 9 In case it is felt that such an approach is too unrealistic if adopted in the context of discussions on regional development, it is perhaps useful to remember that world-famous economists have been working with nationals from individual, developing countries on the formulation of alternative models for regional development for these countries and on the analysis of the relative costs and benefits of each alternative. If this 'multi-alternative' thinking concerning the future has been accepted by regional economists, why should sociologists and others not accept the challenge of this type of thinking?10

3.5 Priority topics for study in the field of sociological aspects of regional development As regards the topics on which alternatives should be formulated, there are several ways of classifying them. For the purpose of discussion, the classification used in this paper has been: I. Regional development (whether planned or not)

1. Aiming mainly at economic development 2. Aiming mainly at transformation of the social structure of the region concerned.

8. As one possible background study, see, for example, Dumont & Mazoyer (1969). 9. A case for training of 'regional futurologists' is made by Kuklinski (1971). 10. The relatively backward stage of sociology as a policy science was discussed in relation to regional development at a meeting of experts held at the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, Geneva, in the fall of 1968.

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3. Aiming mainly at national integration of the population in the region concerned II. The system and process of planning for regional development In accordance with this classification, the following paragraphs outline some topics for research relating to regional development on which thinking in terms of alternatives is urgently needed: 1. Social research in connection with regional development aiming mainly at economic development could usefully focus on the impact on the prevailing social structure of the way in which certain economic processes will be organized. 'Economic processes' are here understood to include specifically the following: a) the organization of intra-regional and inter-regional trade and commerce, and the alternatives which can be found for the role played by traditional middlemen, particularly in developing countries. b) the location and the dispersal or concentration of industrial complexes and of the 'service institutions' such as banks, created to promote the industrialization process in the region (see, e.g., Misra, 1970). c) the economic rewards given to members of the liberal professions, (for example, medical doctors, etc.) and of the civil services in relation to their willingness to serve in regions outside the capital city. This problem affects the sheer functioning of social services in regional projects as well as the morale of large sections of the population in those regions. d) the problems of access to property, employment and income and their impact on social structure and on popular activation, both in turn affecting 'economic' development as such within the region. 2. Priority research on sociological aspects of regional development aiming mainly at a transformation of the social structure of the region concerned could take as a starting point three major elements presented earlier in this paper: a) reasons for stagnation and an analysis of groups opposing change. b) this analysis in turn would most probably lead to the necessity of analyzing the power structure in terms of the base of existing power (economic, physical force, prestige, intelligence, etc.); the forms of power exercise (force, domination through symbols, manipulation, etc.); the

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goals of those who exercise power (to gain control over economic resources, over information, etc.); and above all the institutionalization of the power process (Van Doom, 1962). This research should lead to the formulation of new alternative models as regards the base of power, the forms of power exercise and the institutionalization of the power process in the region. c) formulation of alternative ways of implementing in practical terms the new model selected. Strategies may include education or functional formal organization 'from below' (whose effectiveness was proven in some countries of Latin America) or change 'from the top'. 3. Social research in connection with regional development aiming mainly at national integration of the population in the region concerned is of vital interest in countries where there is a widespread recognition of the fact that large segments of the population have not been integrated into the life of the nation. In some countries of Latin America, this 'nonintegrated segment' constitutes up to 80 per cent of the total population. In this research a distinction should be made between integration within a region (intra-regional integration) and integration of a region as a whole into the structure of the state or the nation. On both topics a sociological analysis on three points seems relevant, namely: (a) in terms of access of the population to economic, social, political and administrative goods or functions as well as (b) in terms of contacts between individuals and groups: number, frequency, scope, regularity of contacts and of the resulting social relations, and (c) in terms of 'dominance/dependency' of certain strata of the population. The purpose of this analysis would be to find alternative ways or institutionalized forms for a desirable degree of integration. For intra-regional integration alternative models should be formulated for the relationships between different social classes, with special attention to the role played by the traditional regional elite and the potential role for a new middle-class associated with recent processes of rural migration and with the introduction into certain regions of new industries and of new government corporations. As regards the degree of integration of a region within the nation it seems relevant to analyze what impact different degrees of institutionalized integration or non-integration of the region into the life of the nation will have on the society of the region concerned. Some alternative political forms are, for example, relatively complete institutional isolation of the

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region (e.g., The Karamoja district of Uganda in the early part of the century); 'cultural' autonomy for the region (for instance, the Kosmet Area of Yugoslavia); political autonomy for the region (e.g., in certain areas of the USSR); granting the status of a federated state (for instance, Slovakia) and, finally, complete absorption of the region into a centralist state. Such assessments of the relative merits of different degrees of institutionalized regional autonomy should be made as part of broader sociological assessments of regional development policies. 4. Social research on the process of regional plan formulation should take as a point of departure the question whether the present social system does allow plan formulation to become more rational, more comprehensive and more democratic. Analysis should focus on formulating alternative planning processes within the existing social structure at regional and national level. Alternatives can be formulated as regards: (a) the feasible scope of regional policies (economic development, or also social services, or also democratization as explicit purpose of these policies); (b) as regards the feasible function of a plan or 'blueprint' (advisory, or 'indicative' or compulsory); (c) as regards the institutional devices for plan implementation (persuasion, compulsion, direct government operations, joint public-private enterprise, etc.) and (d) as regards the feasible administrative structures for plan formulation. A recent study of a number of African countries seems to indicate that a large and extremely efficient administrative structure for intra-regional plan formulation may prove less effective than a 'less efficient' administrative structure. Insofar as the patronage system and the influence of pressure groups may affect the administrative structure and functioning of regional planning organizations in some countries a search for realistic alternatives seems vital.

3.6 Priority use of research results The results of such exploratory studies on the sociological aspects of regional development and focussing on the issues listed in the preceding pages could serve immediately in at least two ways: a) by contributing to the conceptual and factual content of training programmes in regional development located in different parts of the world, which to date lack sufficient teaching materials on the sociological aspects of regional development.

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b) by contributing to the formulation of ideas, suggestions and recommendations on the sociological aspects of regional development, for use by governments and by international organizations in matters of a policy and conceptual nature as well as in the preparation, implementation and evaluation of operational activities at the field level.

REFERENCES

Bridel, L. (1970) Le programme de recherche des Nations Unies sur le developpement regional, Habitation, 10, October. Choay, F. (1965) Uurbanisme, utopies et realties: une anthologie. Paris, Editions du Seuil. Dumont, R., & Mazoyer, M. (1969) Developpement et socialismes. Paris, Editions du Seuil. ECLA (1964) Popular participation and principles of community development in relation to the acceleration of economic and social development, Economic Bulletin for Latin America, 9 (2), November. (1965) Rural settlement patterns and social change in Latin America, Economic Bulletin for Latin America, 10:1-22. (1969) Second United Nations development decade, Social Change and Social Development Policy in Latin America. United Nations publication, Sales No.: E.70.II.G.3. Friedmann, J. (1966) Regional development policy: A case study of Venezuela. Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press. & Alonso, W. (1964), Regional development and planning: A reader. Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press. Glass, R. (1959) The evaluation of planning: Some sociological considerations. In Regional Planning (combined numbers 12 and 13 of Housing, Building and Planning). New York, United Nations. Pp. 51-57. Kuklinski, A. R. (1971) Education for regional planning. In D. M. Dunham & J. G. M. Hilhorst (Eds.), Issues in regional planning: A selection of seminar papers. The Hague, Mouton. Le Compte, B. (1969) Elements pour une recherche sur l'organisation de l'aide (interne et externe) au developpement rural, Developpement et Civilisations, June: 8-23. Misra, R. P. (Ed.) (1969) Regional planning: Concepts, techniques, policies and case studies. Prasaranga, India, The University of Mysore. (1970) Growth pole hypothesis re-examined. University of Mysore, Centre for Urban and Regional Studies. Working paper. Morsink, H. J. A. (1968) Five fields for a sociology of regional development: Suggestions for a United Nations programme. UNRISD/68/C.46. Resources for the Future, Inc. (RF) (1966) Design for a worldwide study of regional development. Washington, D.C. Reiner, T. A. (1963) The place of the ideal community in urban planning. University of Pennsylvania Press. Tinbergen, J. (1962) Shaping the world economy. New York. United Nations (1967) Local participation in development planning. New York.

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Utria, R. D. (1968) Development as a social phenomenon and its implications for social policy and programmes at the regional level. Geneva. Van Doom, J. A. A. (1962) Sociology and the problem of power, Sociologia Neerlandica, 1 (1), 3-47. Vincent, H. R. (1968) Laagontwikkelde gebieden in Europa: Enkele sociologische aspecten van het ontwikkelingsvraagstuk. Universitaire Pers Rotterdam.

TOMMY CARLSTEIN

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Regional or spatial sociology?

Regional analysis can be conducted in many ways. In both sociology and economics there is a strong tendency now to disaggregate the nation into regions as sub-national entities. The regions thus arrived at, tend to become 'individuals', which are compared and computed with, regardless of the arbitrary delineation of their boundaries. Internal migration, for instance, cannot be registered, but anybody crossing the boundary is registered as a migrant (Hägerstrand, 1969). Analysis also becomes regional without being spatial, paradoxical as this may seem. This is especially true of macro-economics brought down to the regional level. Where the whole nation was before treated as a point rather than a surface, regional disaggregation treats it as a set of points but still not as a surface. This is typical of Richardson's (1969) survey of the bases of regional economic analysis. Yet, it can be claimed that this approach is in many respects quite 'pointless'. While in geography, which probably has the longest experience of regional analysis, the emphasis has for more than a decade been shifting away from the region as the basic entity and concept, in the neighbouring social sciences an opposing trend is found in their recent attempts to accommodate the spatial dimensions. These sciences are risking jumping into the abandoned region barrel, however full of leaks it may be. Even if it is granted that for some general purposes regions may be fruitfully compared, what happens to mira-regional analysis? Do we go on jumping into ever smaller regional barrels? When the region is viewed as a substance for analysis, an entity in the real world, it tends to be treated as a container. But this approach is complicated by the well-known fact that many elements and processes are not neatly contained in existing political and administrative regions Analytical difficulties are therefore encountered when the attempt is made

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to extend the region to activities and processes that are incommensurable with it. If, on the other hand, regions are taken as purely analytical, the problem is how to delimit them so that they will be useful for different analytical purposes. Questions of size, shape, nesting and other qualities have to be taken into account. What happens in practice in much social analysis is that the regions selected are generally both substantial in a politico-administrative sense and analytical in a statistical sense because statistical data are unfortunately available only in aggregate form and only for administrative regions. We thus suffer from the shortcomings of the system of official statistics, even when we are interested in social phenomena that are not 'contained' within or constrained by regional boundaries. Some suggestions which would remedy this situation will be given later. Regional sociology aims explicitly at becoming not only regional but also spatial. For example, Ziolkowski (1969, p. 3) writes: 'Region is first and foremost a spatial concept, and this areal dimension cannot be forgotten when we analyze social phenomena in the regional context.' Morsink* (1971, p. 3) defines regional development as denoting '... processes and activities affecting population and human activities in space ...'. But the implications of regional as opposed to spatial conceptualization remain to a large extent vague. What regional disaggregation has done for disciplines like sociology and economics is to promote a very healthy decentralization of thought and action. This has highlighted both 'the little practical usefulness of applying at the regional level, the global and abstract theories and methodologies used in sociology in surveying the society as a whole ...' (Grosman 1970, p. 6), and the fact that the region is for many purposes a much more realistic planning unit than the whole nation. The focus on regions has led to a different integration of sectorally defined elements and processes, and this fresh combination has no doubt been most enlightening. The issue the present author wishes to treat lies, however, beyond the region. It is comprised of two problems, one being the tremendous range and almost bewildering diversity of substance at present found in regional sociology and how this might be reduced so as to avoid creating confusion. The second part concerns, among other things, the importance of locational analysis in space and time. The approach suggested to the first problem * In this volume p. 461.

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lies through the second. It is precisely this that makes it possible to argue for spatial as opposed to regional sociology.

WHY IS LOCATION IMPORTANT?

It may rightly be asked why locational analysis in space and time is relevant to social analysis. After all, theories as well as applications of the large disciplines like economics and sociology have been produced for years without any reference to location, except in the descriptive sense of naming the region or historical epoch for the empirical materials used. But location in this absolute sense is not the cornerstone of locational analysis in contrast to the relative locations of social elements, which is probably one of the most important areas of investigation for science today. But for this, social science must regard its subject matter as spatially and temporally localized, i.e., treat it as consisting of localized entities. To envisage why this should be so it is convenient to begin by focusing attention on the population of human individuals who are no doubt the basic components of any social system. Each individual can be seen as the fusion of both psychic and physical substance in one indivisible entity, and this package deal presented by nature is a basic social fact. In spatial terms it implies that the mind is not floating freely about, the psychic elements being able to form any kind of combination and transformation. However frustrating it may be, each human mind is anchored to a physical body, and the two are wrapped in one indivisible parcel. It is therefore quite feasible (indeed recommendable) to view each individual as an entity localized in space. But this does not imply that location does not change over time; only that at each moment the individual is located in space and is indivisible. He cannot be in two places at once. Not only are all individuals in the population localized, but so also are all the resources and biophysical facilities used by man, e.g., land, raw materials, tools, roads, houses, telephones and books. These are just as social as the values, attitudes, norms, institutions and many of the other elements commonly considered by sociologists; they are not merely physical. Location in time and space also implies occupation of time and space, i.e., temporal and spatial extent. The social elements of individuals, objects and activities compete for time and space and displace one another

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since they cannot share the same locations, which in the aggregate brings some elements together and sets others apart. Location thus acts as both an integrating and a disintegrating factor on social systems. TIME-GEOGRAPHIC THEORY A N D LOCATIONAL ANALYSIS IN TIME AND SPACE

In order to make our discussion deeper, it will be helpful at this stage to introduce a recently developed geographical theory and model for the study of social systems over time in a spatial setting. This model has been designed by Torsten Hägerstrand, and the present author has been active in a research project on it under his direction. The approach is called 'time-geography'. So far the materials have been published mostly in Swedish, but some are also available in English (Hägerstrand 1963, 1970). The body of the theory employs a specific model as a vehicle for its explanation, and certain elements of this model will be briefly described here. The principal aim is to illustrate the dynamic aspects of social action and interaction by fusing the elements of population, activities, biophysical objects and the spatial environment. The intention is not to give a basic presentation of time-geography but only to use the model to give a rough idea of why relative location is so important in the study of social systems. This is done by explicitly incorporating in the model another aspect of social process, namely, allocation. Location and allocation go hand in hand. The population is thus treated as the allocation of individuals to each other, activities are dealt with in terms of time allocation (by people to activities) and space as space allocation. All three constitute scarce resources in any social system and are to a certain extent interchangeable. But the number of individuals with given attributes and capabilities is limited; they have a limited amount of time to allocate to various activities, and there is a limit to the space available to house the activities. Relative location in time and space has a tremendous impact on the outcome of these allocation processes in society and their aggregate influence on the social structure. Hence these processes must be regarded as taking place in space and time or time-space, which is the basic choicespace for human activity and intention. The model can therefore be used for economizing purposes, but its area of application is potentially much broader than the corresponding areas based on monetary transactions. It ought therefore to be of greater interest to sociologists than its pecuniary counterparts.

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We begin by assuming that the earth's surface can be represented by a plane. This is conventionally done when describing an area with a map. The height dimension will be disregarded, since its implications for social organization are the least profound. The human population is further assumed to have arranged several sets of stations which they utilize and which are located on this plane. Most important among them are dwellings, places of work and places of worship, entertainment, storage, education, marketing and so on. Connecting the stations are various channels of movement and communication such as roads, foot-paths, waterways, telephone lines, etc. Together the two types of elements add up to the familiar social sub-systems of settlement and land use. If the time dimension, that of activities, events, change and development, is added as the third ('height' or vertical) dimension t to the plane abed, a three-dimensional time-space is obtained as in Figure 1. This time-space and its contents are the basic arena of all life even vegetable and animal life. But since it is easily depicted graphically, it provides the basic descriptive device in time-geography analysis as well, both when dealing with location and allocation in social systems. t

c

α Figure 1. Source: Hägerstrand (1963).

d

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In considering the human population, each individual can be described as a line or path, the individual's path, which is continuous between the time of birth and that of death. When an individual is stationary in space (being put in one place) this path is vertical and parallel to the time axis,

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and when he moves that path is tilted. Figure 1 shows three individuals as paths. No individual's path can be parallel to the spatial plane, however, since this implies that the individual would be moving at infinite speed (even faster than light) which is impossible. Neither is the path divisible and able to appear in several places at the same time, as the word /«dividual actually connotes. People participating in group activities appear as paths which are in contact with each other, i.e., they are shown as bundles of individual paths. The bundles have a shape which is often quite characteristic for the type of group. So, a school or a household looks quite different graphically during the timespan of a day, for example, both with regard to bundle size and to the temporal location of the bundling of the paths (Figures 2 and 3).

IMPLICATIONS OF RELATIVE LOCATION IN TIME-SPACE FOR THE THEORY OF GROUPS AND THE STRUCTURE OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS

It is, of course, impossible in a short article to cover all the issues raised by regional sociology. Let us therefore narrow down the discussion to certain basic problems in a main theoretical body of sociology, the theory of groups. Many of the problems for other social scientists of quickly identifying themselves in the conceptual and theoretical apparatus of modern human geography are centred on the conceptualization of groups. There are two main reasons for this: (1) While sociologists and social anthropologists have on the whole tended to emphasize the symbolic interactional, legalistic, normative and expectation aspects of groups, geographers have been less concerned with these matters; (2) and while non-geographers have tended to concentrate on existing and actual groups, geographers have considered also (and perhaps more frequently so) potential groups and the constraints acting on group formation. A human geographer looks at the group explicitly as a population-cumactivity unit, as a set of individuals doing something together and being somewhere together while acting collectively. And in order to participate in groups, individuals have to assemble in space for a given period of time before moving on to participate in other groups. Hence the movement and assembly factor is crucial to the ways groups are actually able to function or operate.

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It is unfortunate that the (Max) Weberian view of groups still has such a dominant hold on sociology. It is not unimportant in itself that individuals share norms and are adjusted in their mutual expectations and goal-oriented in their actions. By focusing on expectation, goalorientation and action sociology takes the time factor implicitly into account. But all too little of this time factor has been made explicit in sociology, for instance, by considering that activities take time and displace each other since the total time available is limited. Individuals are also mutually adjusted in space, and this seldom receives its due emphasis. It is not, therefore, very unfair to say that sociology has not given sufficient attention to the group as a population-cwm-activity unit. A geographer does not take the group for granted. He regards it as an assembly kit rather than a finished product. And although most of us wake up among the members of our household - the primary group each morning, the other groups in which we usually participate are still unformed in an operational sense when we have our breakfast. Hence we start off each day by making an investment in a time-consuming movement before the other groups take shape. There is, in other words, a cost in forming groups, which is paid by other groups that cannot be formed at the same time. For a geographer who takes movement as an integral component in group formation, the whole set of spatial origins and destinations inherent in the spatial settlement pattern gomes to the fore as a very important social sub-system. This is what has motivated the extensive elaboration of the relation between distance and human interaction in geography, for example. Likewise this explains why so much stress has been placed on accessibility as a concept in geography. Accessibility measured in time, distance and perhaps also in money is a concept having, by comparison, a far less central place in sociology, where transport is just a 'practical problem' with little aggregate effect on social structure. The study of accessibility also reveals that geographers very often look at potential group formation in the population of an area rather than at which groups are actually formed. It follows logically that many of the applications of geography to planning are a matter of facilitating group formation by improving accessibility through transport and by rearranging elements in the settlement pattern, i.e., planning the relative location of the origins and destinations in space such as working places, hospitals, shops, schools, community houses, administrative offices, etc. And since individuals not only form groups among themselves but also in an

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extended sense with tools, machines, agricultural plots and other sociophysical facilities, these also enter into geographical theory and planning. A farmer spending his time in the field or at home with his family is seen within the same theoretical framework. The incorporation of 'dead things' into human geography has therefore not been because of an innate inability to sort out the things from the people but because they interact and affect each other. If social theory focuses solely on symbolic interaction among humans, it is likely to overlook how the man-thing interaction aifects the man-man interaction. This indicates a major shortcoming in many sociological analyses of group behaviour, namely, the absence of a capacity dimension indicating how much of what individuals and groups are able to perform or how many individuals for how long a time are able to complete various tasks. Usually only the qualitative aspect of who is able, may or must do what to whom is considered. This lack of allocative reasoning and economizing has turned sociology into a discipline of abundance. Most worlds become possible and compatible at hardly any opportunity cost. Even when quantifying the sheer size of different groups, the structural effects of size get lost because the activities of groups are not seen as time-consuming or located in space. It is admittedly difficult to generalize in this way because there is always a sociological study or student somewhere who has considered the particular matter in question, as in Wilbert Moore's excellent study Man, time and society (1963). But here we have been discussing dominant trends and biases in sociological thinking, the rule rather than the exception. In support of the claim that a capacity dimension is lacking in much sociological group theory, let us have a closer look at some possible relations between time allocation, group size and spatial location. Starting with time allocation and the time factor, it may be asked what has become of these in much of social science? The literature on social, economic and technological development is characterized by noticeable absence of any explicit use of the time factor or reference to time as a scarce resource to be allocated to activities. Time appears for the most part in macro-analyses of trends and growth rates and that is all. In the studies dealing particularly with developing countries, observations that farmers are not busy all the time or that people in cities do not hurry as they do in Western Europe are taken as pieces of evidence that time is not very important as a scarce asset. The fact that population growth rates are usually high and that there seems to be no lack of people is again

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taken as if there were no real shortage of time, rather the contrary. Some empirical truth lies hidden behind the above observations, and this is exactly the trouble with sociology that disregards time and time allocation. Merely because time is not perceived as a scarce asset or because people do not hurry, many as they are, does not imply that the time dimension is analytically unimportant for an understanding of the structure and change of social systems. The fact that people do not allocate their time with the same precision as is customary in Western society does not mean they do not allocate their time. Far from it. By focusing on the temporal aspects of allocation, duration, sequence, frequency, time location and time coordination or timing of the elements comprising the social system, we may be able to discern entirely new and important sets of relations. Moore's study (1963), which for some reason has been so neglected in sociology, and that of Soule (1955), equally neglected by economists, prove this as far as time is concerned. For a geographer employed in regional planning with the task of organizing an educational system for a population, the factors of group size, time allocation and spatial location are all aspects of the same thing. Taking the matter of the size of the educational groups first, the question arises whether all those to be educated are to be gathered together in one place. This implies longer travel distances and travel time for more people than if the group were split up in several local schools. If travel time is shorter, more time remains for homework, rest and recreation. If the school is not located in a very central location in relation to the dwellings, travel time to school also reduces time for other activities and displaces them. Hence it is impossible to treat a structural variable such as group size in isolation from time allocation and spatial location. Group size aifects time allocation in another way, stemming from internal interaction once a group is assembled in a given location. This is typical of communication activities and stems from the trivial fact that it takes time to talk and listen. If too many people are gathered together to talk to each other, and only one can do so at a time, the larger the group size the longer the meeting will take if each individual is to say his piece. Alternatively, if the duration of the meeting is limited, the shorter time each individual will have at his disposal. Although one individual (say a 'leader') may be able to monopolize the total time capital of the group during a meeting, this only means that the listeners get no time at all to express their thoughts. (It is easy to see why voting is such an important time-saving innovation.) So the sender

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has great 'economies of scale' when addressing the whole group, but he has the corresponding 'diseconomies of scale' when trying to listen to those comprising it. How many basic problems in collective activity, decision-making and participation are not elaborations of the simple factors of time allocation and group size? One need hardly start off with the social superstructure variables of socialism or capitalism, democracy or dictatorship, traditionalism or modernism in order to explain many of the principal aspects of social structure. These emanate from a few basic facts with great aggregate effects: Humans are indivisible, it takes time to talk, the more people the less time for each individual, etc. The author has calculated that if each of the approximately 6 million Swedish voters were to tell their Prime Minister directly what they thought of Swedish politics, they would each get 1.44 seconds to do so, assuming that the Prime Minister had an ordinary working day and did nothing but listen throughout the year. One hates to think how much time each American could have with his President. The Americans could not even say 'hello' as the Swedes could. Shortages of time may develop in a number of ways in a social system for different segments of the population, for instance, for agents of change, due to the spatial dispersion of the receivers of information about modern norms, activities, products and general ways of life. This obliges the sender to spend more time on transport which leaves him less time for the actual transfer of the message. Time shortages may also arise out of the numerical ratio between senders and receivers. So both group size and activity can be reduced to time allocation problems in space. Therefore in regional planning as well as in social analysis when trying to introduce or guide change it is quite important to consider the capacity constraints which act as thresholds which must be crossed before any effect can occur.

CONCLUSION

Before ending our discussion let us accept that social factors like the motivations of the traditionally oriented majority of people in a developing country must be reoriented towards new goals and aspirations. Let us also accept that identification of different groups with the nation as a whole or with some larger region at least is another necessary condition

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for modernization and development. So old norms and institutions must give way. Hence it is obvious that without a genuine understanding of the social factors of motivation identification norms and institutions little progress in regional or other types of development can be made. Here then lies the contribution of sociologists because they have a long tradition and long experience of handling such social factors which must be at the heart of any solution to these social development problems. But the author would disagree with many similar interpretations not of course because he does not believe that sociologists have any role to play but rather on account of the type of explanations dominant in sociology today. If socio-psychic variables like motivation and identification are crucial for the development of a social system it is necessary and legitimate for a sociologist to investigate the matter. But this is quite different from accepting a solution to the problem which refers only to legal or socio-psychic variables neglecting the system of activities and the constraints operating on it. Full understanding of the real role of motivation identification and norms may only come through entering by the 'back-door' and making a thorough analysis of the population-cMmactivity system as well. It is probably here that we find one backbone of a more dynamic sociology. Suppose, for instance, that motivation and identification are generated by communication and education. The latter pair are types of activity. As such they demand time and both require individuals to assemble in space in order to be in contact. (Even telecommunication takes time, although the spatial separation of the actors is possible.) Consequently, communication and education are not merely a matter of symbolism and psychic interaction but also of the constraints on the situations in which symbols can be transferred and how long it takes to transfer a given content. It is here that models and theories incorporating time allocation in a spatial setting become very important as approaches furthering our understanding of the socio-psychic as well as the socio-physical aspects of social systems. Much social structure is probably best understood if the structure of the social situations are envisaged as located in time and space. For a student of change and development, there may well exist a primary level of analysis of human activity and interaction group formation function and participation, studied from the angle of time allocation in space. It may not be really necessary to cram into sociological analysis such vast amounts of specification of substance about people and the

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sectors to which they belong. Many major constraints on social institutions and processes lie at a deeper level than this and it would be good strategy to concentrate on them first: Whether entrepreneurs, labourers, politicians, planners, investors, peasants, civil servants, relatives and all the rest, all require time to think, talk or otherwise communicate, to sleep, eat, etc. The suggestion made in this paper is that perhaps the most fruitful course of development in dynamic social studies is to try as simply and rigorously as possible to incorporate these matters first and to devise theories and methods of basic calculation before going on to the great complexities and variations of social substance. It is, indeed, at this primary level of analysis that to view the region as a container or as a point rather than as a surface appears to be fruitless, since it does not permit the study of social phenomena as spatially differentiated and located in a continuous space. The predominantly legalistic and norm-centred view of groups held by many sociologists has made the spatial environment, time allocation and location seem insignificant in the study of social systems. When looking at groups also in activity terms, activities being recognized as time-consuming, it becomes apparent that the spatial settlement pattern is of great importance to group formation and operation. The activity view of groups also makes it more obvious that a time allocation problem does exist and that participation in one group excludes that in another at the same time. Thus for a given population, the formation of groups is limited, and new groups cannot be introduced without reducing or eliminating old groups, as we have seen, for instance, with many extended families. The fact that one group excludes the other may not be nearly so much a matter of normative incompatibility as is frequently assumed but may be due to the fact that individuals are indivisible and cannot be in two places at once. There are other constraints on social systems than normative constraints. Norms do affect social action, but it would be interesting to know their real share in the constraining influences. Demographers have for many decades realized that there are many constraints with cumulative effects on social structure on how people get born and die; sociology needs to give more thorough consideration to the constraints operating once we are born. For the sociology of regional development to be dynamic, elaboration along the foregoing lines may prove valuable in mobilizing human resources for human purposes. For it is hard to believe that either the technically advanced societies in which change is rapid and spatially

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differentiated or the underdeveloped countries struggling to mobilize human and material resources can be realistically treated by any social science in which people, activities, material infrastructure, media and psychic-symbolic elements float freely about without reference to time and space. All this has a bearing on the way we organize our data in social analysis and planning. We must have a minimum of spatial and temporal precision in the location of our data. As far as the time dimension goes, we have a useful conventional system of reference based on solar or astronomic time, e.g., days and years. By contrast, when it comes to space, we have to cope with regions of all sorts of odd sizes and shapes, which is quite illogical. A solution to this problem has been suggested and described by Hägerstrand (1967a, 1967b; cf. also Hermansen, 1970; Hägerstrand & Kuklinski 1971). It is based on a co-ordinate square grid system covering a whole country. It gives a regular and standardized framework suited to all kinds of localized statistical data regarding population, activities and different social, economic and natural resource variables. The same grid system can be used not only for societal data but also for data on processes in nature like climate, vegetation, hydrology and many others. In the latter case, it is more than apparent that political regions are irrelevant, but they can easily be accommodated in this framework as well. The adoption of the co-ordinate grid system for data organization is one of the most profitable investments for any country which is trying to promote development, particularly the developing countries. But one thing is certain, the traditional politico-administrative region is not the matrix we need for efficient social analysis on which policy and planning should be based.

REFERENCES

Grosman, V. (1970) Research and training in regional sociology. UNRISD 70/C.72. Geneva. Hermansen, T. (1970) Case studies in information systems for regional development. UNRISD Report No. 70.8. Geneva. Hägerstrand, Τ. (1963) Geographic measurements of migration. In Entretiens de Monaco en sciences humaines. Monaco. (1967a) Some notes on geographic data-banks and the use of computers in research. In Urban core and inner city. Leiden. (1967b) The computer and the geographer. In Transactions of the Institute oj British Geographers. Vol. 42. London.

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sociology?

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(1969) On the definition of migration. In Scandinavian population studies. Vol. 1. Helsinki. (1970) What about people in regional science? Regional Science Association Papers. Vol. 24. & Kuklinski, A. (Eds.) (1971) Information systems for regional development: A seminar. Lund Studies in Geography, Ser. B. No. 37. Lund. Moore, W. E. (1963) Man, time and society. New York and London. Morsink, H. J. A. (1971) Sociological aspects of regional development and of planning for regional development. UNRISD MSOA/6/71. Geneva. In this volume, pp. 461-487. Richardson, H. W. (1969) Regional economics: Location theory, urban structure and regional change. London. Soule, G. (1955) Time for living. New York. Ziolkowski, J. A. (1969) Methodological problems in the sociology of regional development. UNRISD 69/C.2. Geneva.

HERMAN BAEYENS

7

The sociological failure in regional planning: Comments on some recent publications in the field of sociology and planning*

It is remarkable that economists and geographers are very actively involved in regional and urban planning discussions, but generally very few sociologists are. How is this possible when basically social problems and motivations are determining the regional and urban process? How is it possible that mainly planners themselves are raising the fundamental questions in relation to national, regional and urban societal planning?

1.

REASONS FOR THE SOCIOLOGICAL FAILURE IN REGIONAL A N D

URBAN

PLANNING

1.1 There is first the predominantly academic approach of urban and regional sociology which leads easily to an ivory-tower attitude. Because of the slight interest of sociologists in regional and urban problems, at least until recently in European countries, this phenomenon is understandable. Also the attitude of the pure sociologist who is resistant to the practice of planning could be one of the reasons. Theory and practice can inspire each other, and the gap between both has been too wide as far as spatial sociology and spatial planning are concerned. However, the openness of the planner family went so far that urban planners and architects at certain moments were expecting all the solutions from the sociologist, which he could not give because (among other reasons further explained), he was too little involved in and familiar with spatial and environmental problems. This is one of the reasons why the sociologist * This article is a reaction to 'Notes on regional planning', a working paper by Dr. A. Kuklinski of the School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Ottawa, in which he wrote: 'The theory and practice of planning needs very badly substantial inputs from sociology. Until recently it was extremely difficult to get those inputs.'

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until now has made only a marginal contribution in the field of regional and urban planning. 1.2 A second reason can be found in the heritage and tradition of American social ecology and urban sociology. The traditional and neoclassical materialistic interpretations of the ecological process with the biotic and physical deterministic explanations are still largely influential in the field of urban and regional problems. This tendency has been sustained by the systems approaches of the last decade, so that handbooks of social ecology and urban sociology are still imbued with the organistic interpretations of traditional ecology. Only during the last decades have more voluntaristic interpretations been emerging, which, as a matter of fact, have more fruitful links with urban and regional planning. The urban process also is no longer considered only an independent variable but also a dependent variable in which the role of human and societal intervention is clearly recognized.1 1.3 A third and probably the most fundamental reason is what J. Galtung has called the'empiricist fallacy'} He means that the potential is not given full play because there is a tendency to elevate existing models of development into natural law. This empiricism leads to a typical image of development that is similar to the traditional ecological interpretations of man's adaption to space as mentioned above. This image is as follows: 'As societies develop, they become increasingly differentiated like biological organisms' and 'individuals are allocated to statuses'. This basic trend in sociological thinking 1. A. Boskoff (1962) is so bold as to call his Chapter 18: 'Creative planning: An application of urban sociology'. The best distinctions between materialistic and voluntaristic interpretations of the urban process have been made in Willhelm (1962). Also Sjoberg (1968) makes the distinction between the traditional theories and the more recent value, cultural and social power interpretations. 2. Attending the Seventh World Congress of Sociology in Varna in 1970 about 'Contemporary and future societies: Prediction and social planning', I discovered two most interesting contributions from the planner's point of view, which were not published in the transactions of the Congress. The first was J. Galtung's paper entitled 'Perspectives on development: Past, present and future' and Professor Tenbruck's paper entitled 'Limits of planning'. The main contribution of Galtung's paper was not so much his critique of the pure empiricist approach but his distinction between four types of societal models, the last one of which was the not-yet-realized future society, which offers self-realization possibilities together with equality because in the Chinese model self-actuation seems not to be fully realized.

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since A. Comte excludes possibilities for creative and inventive societal planning and experimentation, although sociologists could excellently furnish the basic material for what we consider the most essential task of national, regional and urban planning. Galtung's statement that 'development theory is too important to be left to empiricists' is met by the reluctance of pure sociologists towards futurology and planning, but at the same time it is a third fundamental reason why sociologists until now have failed to contribute basically in the field of regional and urban development and planning. In this respect the relation between science and action merits particular attention - with planning as an activity between them. A special warning of J. Dyckman (1966, pp. 66-67) clearly indicated two possible extremes: 'Positive social science, which is steadfastly descriptive and determined to be value free can play an important diagnostic role, but without the informing graces of ideology it is remarkably mute on prescription And further: 'Ideologically sustained societal planning as the socialist experiments show, virtually dispenses with social science.' However, here we refer to Dr. Kuklinski's remarks concerning the ideological substance of regional policy and regional planning: 'The generation of a new stream of innovations in our field is possible only via the integration of ideological and technical approaches to regional policy and planning' (Kuklinski, 1974, p. 3). It is the direction in which sociologist planners should look: How can we organize a scientific approach and evaluation of ideologies in order to arrive at more effective experimental societal development and planning? Or how can sociological theory and planning theory enrich each other in the face of the ideological problems?

2.

MAIN AREAS OF SOCIOLOGICAL CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL AND URBAN PLANNING

The question arises where sociology should contribute mainly in the regional and urban development and planning process? Or analogously with the question 'Who plans the planner?' the question should be raised 'Who plans the sociologist?' 2.1 As can be derived from the foregoing discussion, the most fundamental task of sociology seems to be their contribution to the preparation, experimentation and construction of alternative societal models, according

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to differing value systems, goals and objectives. This orientation has been called social planning, societal planning and, more recently, societal guidance. In fact, regional and urban development are mainly determined by the national societal conditions and power structure. The means of regional and urban societies, as well as the international society or societies, are more restricted in comparison with the power and allocative structure of the national societies. So the fundamental question is still how to organize and structure the national society because the organization of the regional and urban societies is dependent on the national one. From that point of view not only urban, rural and regional sociology but also political sociology, sociology of organization and mainly general macro-sociology should be most inspiring for societal guidance and planning. It is a noticeable fact that some decades ago sociologists were more concerned with 'social planning' than in the last decades. In 1936 P. Sorokin raised the question 'Is social planning possible?' and warned in relation to the unforeseeable side-effects of social planning: '... try to plan experimentally on a small scale before recklessly starting it on a large scale and in earnest' (pp. 13-28). He was contradicted by H. Pr. Fairchild who made a distinction between social and societal planning, believing that 'a determined, rational and intelligent societal plan may work out in nearly the manner that was intended'. The best synthesis of the planning ideas of that period are formulated in the publications of the well-known sociologist of knowledge and planning, K. Mannheim, who pleaded for democratic planning. Since that time sociology seems to be mute in relation to societal construction and planning. As is shown in Friedmann and Barkley (1974), planning as societal guidance is only recently emerging under the influence of the New Sociology in the well-known work of Amitai Etzioni (1968). Involved in the discussions of the planners about optimal societal models and the changing concepts of planning as an instrument for societal construction, Etzioni commented on Grabow and Heskin (1973). They challenge the 'rational comprehensive' model of modern planning which is 'elitist', 'centralizing' and 'change-resistant'. They replace it by 'radical planning' a 'synthesis of rational action and spontaneity, evolutionary social experimentation within the context of an ecological ethic'. These ideas are supported by sociological research such as that of the French sociologist Michel Crozier who states in his book La Societe bloquee (1970) that participation can only be realized when the rigid

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bureaucratic structures are modified into more flexible ones, where negotiation is possible. In the same sense, Bell (1970, pp. 35-36) mentions: 'To a considerable extent the participation revolution is one of the forms of reaction against the "professionalization" of society and the emergent technocratic decision-making of a post-industrial society.' In short, 'participatory democracy' is one more way of posing the classical issues of political philosophy, namely 'who should make and at what levels of government, what kind of decisions, for how large a social unit'. The most fundamental explanation of these ideas is contained in the recent book of John Friedmann (1973b) Retracking America: A theory of transactive planning. The new style of planning he is proposing for post-industrial America is characterized by a process of mutual learning between experts and client groups, in which interpersonal relations and dialogue acquire central importance. So he arrives at'the idea of a learning society based on the structural principle of cellular organization'. The main idea of his book is the attempt to prepare a design for societal guidance which should be a learning society. Such an approach, however, is fundamental if we believe in any human intervention in national, regional or urban development processes. Is this the final context in which societal guidance models must be studied in the near future by planners and sociologists? The whole approach of Friedmann is mainly a formalistic or procedural one (not the goals as such are studied), looking for a new style of planning as a sub-process of societal guidance. The definition of goals is left to the mutual learning process. Is there not a danger again that technocratic information will predominate and that social development will still be based on the planner's interpretations of human needs and goals? Therefore I would refer anew to the contribution of Galtung at the Seventh World Congress of Sociology in which he was looking for societal guidance systems in which two fundamental trends of human goals could be combined: Equality to the greatest possible degree, combined with the greatest possibilities for self-realization. These are two examples of fundamental aspirations which have to be met in the historical process of societal development and for which adequate, creative, inventive societal constructions should be studied, with direct impact on regional planning and urban development. It is clear, however, that societal planning or guidance models and alternatives will be different in the situation of more complex urban industrial societies such as the U.S.A. as opposed to more rural societies such as Tanzania, where societal

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experimentation must take entirely different situations into account. The societal construction of the European Communities is a process on another level than the creation of institutional structures for the regional societies in Belgium. The remarkable nation-building efforts in Malaysia are aimed at giving proportionate participation to the different ethnic groups in the national development. Regional and growth-pole policies are considered as instrumental in restructuring society. In all these examples, however, the fundamental goals of equitable participation and self-realization always remain the same. Societal guidance and planning studies can remove a lot of ideological discussions from the emotional political battlefield to the constructive study of societal models and alternatives inspired by inputs of sociological research. 2.2 Other fields of contributions to regional and urban planning from the side of sociology and social science in general are related to the first fundamental issue of societal guidance. As such, they will refer to the study of goals which are influencing the discussions of societal guidance (Galtung) or to the organizational and other conditions for societal guidance (Friedmann). Four major orientations seem to be important. 2.2.1 Regional and urban sociology: Regional and urban analysis and diagnosis as elements for comparative regional and urban sociological research. Empirical sociological research on regional and urban level can be oriented to the following aspects: a) The sociological analysis of regional and urban structure, culture and functions. Urban sociology in this sense has a long tradition in the U.S.A. but almost does not exist on a regional level. b) The sociological analysis of the regional and urban planning process. The last one is part of the foregoing but is designed for evaluating deliberate human interventions aimed at influencing the structure of the regional or urban community by means of a permanent revision and adaptation of the planning process in relation to changing goals (feedback). The evaluation of the whole planning cycle (goal setting, plan design, plan implementation and plan evaluation), mainly in relation to the effectiveness of implementation in comparison with the regional goals is a most fundamental contribution in which sociological inputs are very much needed. This task is related to the study of the basic needs, values, goals and objectives, which should be taken as the basis for

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societal guidance and planning as a whole. A further elaboration of the voluntaristic interpretations in theory in regional and urban sociology should be promoted. Regional sociology was one of the topics of the UNRISD Regional Program in which the contribution of sociology in the field of goal setting, plan design, plan implementation and plan evaluation was studied (see UNRISD, 1968). 2.2.2 Social and cultural planning: Because social and cultural development are considered mainly as subsequent to economic development, regional and urban social and cultural planning are not always developed equally in the field of regional and urban planning in general. Although a certain reluctance of pure sociologists exists, the techniques of social and cultural planning should be developed and promoted in the same way as is the case for economic planning. The 'social indicators' movement is a step in this direction. According to sectors, two main groups can be distinguished in socio-cultural planning: a) Social planning We consider social planning as a part of societal planning aimed at correcting the social conditions of societal life. As such it is planning of incomes or social programming, planning for housing, planning for health and medical care, planning for social equipment, planning in relation to specific social problems like urban poverty, delinquency, social discrimination, mental illness, social work for non selfsupporting groups, etc. b) Cultural planning It includes that part of societal planning which is related to planning of education, planning of cultural equipment, planning of recreational facilities, etc. 2.2.3 Social participation: The participation movement demonstrated the need to involve the population in the planning and decision-making process related to matters with direct impact on their daily lives. Sociologists and social planners should develop the techniques and organizational structures for participation at all levels where citizens are affected by planning and decision-making. However, real participation means negotiation, which implies some redistribution of power (Friedmann, 1973a, p. 6), on the condition that the society can be transformed

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into a 'learning society'. As such, it again leads to the central question of global, national, regional or urban societal guidance and to the relations between planning styles and political values.3 2.2.4 Institutional planning: In the participatory movement a tendency towards de-bureaucratization is remarkable. This is the trend based also on sociological research mainly by the Crozier group. However, on the other hand, a need for organization of, e.g., public participation is felt because without some organizational and institutional set-up an effective implementation is not possible. Therefore flexible and adaptable institutional structures related to changing needs and goals should be created (Jantsch, 1969). Generally a balance between centralization and decentralization and between vertical and horizontal coordination is sought (Mens en Ruimte, 1970). Attempts should be made to plan the process from regional development towards regional institutionalization and decision-making. Institutional planning is an important tool of planning and decision-making in general, in which sociological research can contribute substantially. Institutional design is a part of our main future task of societal guidance and planning. 3. See 'The Fainsteins: City planning and political values', in Urban Affairs Quarterly, March 1971. They relate technocratic theory to traditional planning, democratic theory to user-oriented planning, socialist theory to advocacy planning and liberal theory to incrementalism. Although it is a generalization which can be discussed, it is an interesting comparison of planning styles with political and societal values.

REFERENCES

Bell, D. (1970) The post-industrial society: Technocracy and politics. In Transactions of the Seventh World Congress of Sociology. Vol. 1. Sofia. Boskoff, A. (1962) The sociology of urban regions. New York. Crozier, M. (1970) La Societe bloquee. Paris. Dyckman, J. (1966) Social planning, social planners and planned societies, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, March. Etzioni, A. (1968) The active society: A theory of societal and political processes. New York. Friedmann, J. (1973a) The public interest and community participation: Toward a reconstruction of public philosophy, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, January. (1973b) Retracking America: A theory of transactive planning. New York. & Barclay, H. (1974) Knowledge and action: A guide to planning theory, Journal of the American Institute of Planning, January: 2-6.

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Grabow, S., & Heskin, A. (1973) Foundation for a radical concept of planning, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, March: 106-114. (With commentary of A. Etzioni.) Jantsch, E. (1969) Adaptive institutions for shaping the future. In Perspectives of planning. Paris, OECD. Kuklinski, A. R. (1974) Notes on regional planning. Ottawa. Carleton University, School of International Affairs. Working paper. Mens en Ruimte (1970) Regional development in Western Europe: Experiences and prospects. Brussels. (Chapter 4, The institutional framework.) Sjoberg, G. (1968) Theory and research in urban sociology, The study of urbanization. New York. Sorokin, P. A. (1936) Is societal planning possible?, American Sociological Review, 1:13-28. UNRISD (1968) Sociology of regional development. Geneva, UNRISD. (With contributions of A. R. Kuklinski, J. A. Ziolkowski, etc.) Willhelm, C. W. (1962) Urban zoning and land use theory. New York.

ANTONI KUKLINSKI

8

Prospects of regional sociology*

1.

WHY REGIONAL SOCIOLOGY

In the present stage of the development of social sciences, the case of integrative interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary or metadisciplinary approaches is very important. It is true that the traditional attitudes developed within the framework of old acedemic disciplines like economics, sociology or geography are very often an obstacle in the modern management of research projects which is trying to solve problems directly relevant to the planning process. I think that the point of W. Alonso (1969, p. 5) is very well taken: 'My point in brief, is that especially in the hard social sciences but also in the soft ones, there has begun to develop a meta-disciplinary competence that rests in particular individuals, and that this provides a better model for the incorporation of the social sciences into the planning process than does the idea of an inter-disciplinary team are brought together because of their diversity. If my basic point is granted, the urgent need is to develop a means of producing greater numbers of individuals with such competence to meet the demands of the work that must be done, and to do everything possible to advance these meta-disciplines.' However, the situation is much more complicated than the quotation of W. Alonso might suggest. To my mind the difference between the interdisciplinary and metadisciplinary approach is a difference in the attitude of the members of the team. This difference includes both the * This paper was submitted to the 'First Asian Symposium on Regional Planning and National Development', Institute of Development Studies, University of Mysore, India, 1 to 4 July, 1974, and to a roundtable discussion on Social Issues in Regional Policy and Regional Planning organized by the School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada, April 23, 1974.

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intellectual attitude to the problem and the human attitude to other members of the team. I think that both differences are implied in the arguments of W. Alonso. However, before a scholar arrives at a point at which he can 'share a common ground' he must go through a stage in the development of his intellectual and professional capacities teaching him how to be different. There is no doubt that some important issues in regional development, regional policy and regional planning can be solved only by multidisciplinary teams. If we try to organize such a team, then, in most countries, we can find relatively competent specialists in the field of economics, geography, public administration, city planning, etc., with sufficient capacities to join the team. Very often, however, it is extremely difficult to find a sociologist who has some experience in the application of the intellectual framework of his discipline to the solution of issues involved in regional development, regional policy and regional planning. This situation is dissatisfactory both for regional planners and for the sociological profession which is not using the growing opportunities of research and training in this field. I think that the successes and failures in the development of regional economics should be examined from the point of view of how to promote regional sociology as a new field of specialization in the framework of the social sciences. Let me stress that the shift in the proposed framework of reference is important. Regional sociology should be a field of multidisciplinary and metadisciplinary cooperation of all professions involved in the solutions of social issues in regional policy and regional planning.

2. REGIONAL SOCIOLOGY IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

The historical studies on the experiences of different countries in the field of regional development only in exceptional cases concentrate attention on social issues. There is a necessity to promote a historical approach to regional sociology. Let me mention two examples of research projects which could be successfully implemented: 1. A study on the development of interregional social disparities in different countries. One could ask questions of the following type: how to define those disparities? how to compare these disparities in time and in space? what are the trends of change in these fields? what kinds of theoretical framework is necessary to explain these trends? to what extent

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different policy and planning instruments were successful to create conditions and to promote actions which diminish the interregional social disparities? 2. A study on the inter-actions of economic growth and social transformation in different underdeveloped and depressed regions. Social transformation is the most controversial issue in this field. In countries dominated by progressive ideologies there is naturally a positive attitude to social structural transformation. This attitude is negative in those countries which are trying to promote economic growth without any change in the social structure.1 This distinction is very important in the evaluation of successes and failures in the promotion of regional development in different countries. I will not expand the list of historical studies which can be launched in the field of regional sociology. I would only like to say that this is a very promising line of research.

3.

REGIONAL SOCIOLOGY AND THE SOCIETY OF THE FUTURE

The most challenging tasks for regional sociology are related to the society of the future. The fundamental question can be formulated as follows: Will the society of the future develop new regional patterns for its activity or will the society only reinforce the patterns which were created by the experiences of the past. John Friedmann (1973, p. 47) presents a simple and clear answer to this fundamental question: Ά rudimentary pattern of urbanization and regional development will tend 1. Compare the following statements of C. Furtado (1973, p. 115): 'The Brazilian economy constitutes an interesting example of how far a country can go in the process of industrialization without abandoning its main features of underdevelopment: great disparity in productivity between urban and rural areas, a large majority of the population living at a physiological subsistence level, increasing masses of underemployed people in the urban zones. The idea that steering the surplus of an underdeveloped economy towards the industrial sector (activities absorbing technical progress) will ultimately create an economic system of increasing homogeneity (where the wage rate tends to increase in all economic activities pari passu with the average productivity of the system), has been thoroughly disproved. The objectives of this paper are (a) to investigate why the worldwide diffusion of technical progress and the resulting increases in productivity have not tended to liquidate underdevelopment; and (b) to demonstrate that a policy of development, geared to satisfy the high levels of consumption of a small minority of the population, such as that carried out in Brazil, tends to aggravate social inequalities and to increase the social cost of an economic system.'

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to maintain itself. Such a pattern may be established quite early in a country's history. Subsequent flows of controlling decisions, innovation diffusion, migration, and economic location will tend to reinforce this pattern so that, whatever happens, the future will look very much like the past.' It is true that regional patterns demonstrate a remarkable degree of stability. It is also true that the attempts to introduce structural changes in those patterns via different social and economic policies can claim only a limited amount of success. I am convinced, however, that it is wrong to accept the experience of the past as an unavoidable verdict for the future. In a worldwide perspective there is a growing dissatisfaction with the performance of the past and the different societies are looking for new models for the society of the future. Naturally, one could argue that new functional structures of the society will be accommodated by old regional patterns. But this accommodation is not a conflict-free process and, at least in some cases, the new functional structures must generate new regional patterns. If regional policy and regional planning is really an innovative activity then a much more radical assumption should be accepted. The new regional pattern should accelerate the emergence of new social and functional structures. The participation in the solution of these problems is a most challenging task for regional sociology, especially in the developing countries. 4.

REGIONAL SOCIOLOGY AND THE PLANNING PROCESS

Three stages of this process can be defined: (1) goal setting; (2) plan design; (3) plan implementation. Let us look at this planning process from the point of view of regional sociology. Goal setting: In the third part of this paper I have already indicated that the regional preferences of the society of the future are the most challenging tasks of regional sociology (cf. UNRISD, 1968). The goalsetting process is a necessary step in the transformation of those fundamental value-judgments and choices into general goals for development and precisely formulated objectives for planning. The contribution of regional sociology in this field should not be restricted to these general and almost philosophical issues. This contribution should also incorporate issues of immediate practical concern like the trade-offs between social, economic and environmental goals and objectives and the trade-offs between long-term and short-term goals and objectives.

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Plan design: In economic perspective a regional plan is a plan of a new regional economy with a new level of welfare and productivity, with new elements in the structure of output and with a new pattern of infrastructure. In sociological perspective the regional plan is a plan of a new regional society with new levels of social mobility and social communications, with new elements in social structures and new individual and collective attitudes to development and change. Naturally, in practical terms, a plan of a new regional economy and a new regional society is rather an exception than a rule. But there is no doubt that the introduction of new elements into the economic and social structure of a region should be the essential driving force in planning activities. Plan implementation: There are two approaches to social change in the implementation of regional policies and regional planning. In the first approach, social change is only a desired or undesired consequence of economic growth. From this point of view the social factors are examined as factors which accelerate or retard the implementation of economic objectives. In the second approach, the social structural transformation is the main objective of the regional plan. The economic factors are examined as factors which accelerate or retard the implementation of social objectives. In any framework created for the implementation of regional policy and regional planning the mutual interaction between economic growth and social change must be considered. This topic should have a high priority on the research agenda of regional sociology.

5.

REGIONAL SOCIOLOGY AND THE REGIONAL PLANNER

I think the following statement by J. Ziolkowski (p. 458) could be applied not only to regional planners but also to scholars and politicians involved in all stages of examination and promotion of regional development: 'Planning, like every form of intellectual activity, is determined by social conditions (the view that human thought is conditioned by social existence has given rise, as is known to a new branch of sociology - the sociology of knowledge.) The regional planner is influenced by the civilisation of which he is a part; by the way of life of his nation, by its tradition and sociopolitical system; by his class affiliation; and by his professional interests. The problem is even more intricate when the regional planner, born in a given country, is educated abroad, as happens very often in developing countries; or, when he comes from outside, for example, as

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an expert of an international organization, bringing with him, according to all rules of ethnocentrism, the whole armoury of preconceived ideas.' This type of critical and analytical examination of attitudes and motivations of persons especially involved in regional policy and regional planning should be one of the most urgent tasks of regional sociology. At the present moment the following remarks by Gunnar Myrdal (1968, p. 6) are fully applicable to this group of scholars and planners: Only about the peculiar behaviour of our own profession do we choose to remain naive. How we as scientists operate in seeking to establish knowledge is largely shielded from the searchlight of social study. But, surely, though we are seeking truth, we are not less conditioned by our mental make-up and the society in which we live and work than are other men. Social scientists are human; some, as we know well, are "all too human"; and they are part of a social system and a culture. Our research interests, the particular approach we choose, the course we follow in drawing inferences and organizing our findings, are not determined by facts and logic alone. We are not automatons like the electronic machines we increasingly use to master large masses of data. And yet, although literature and art have long been considered in relation to the psychology and the environment of their creators, our writings have not been.'

6.

HOW TO PROMOTE REGIONAL SOCIOLOGY

In my opinion the following channels for the promotion of regional sociology should be used: 1. The first channel was created by the UN activities in the field of regional development, started by the resolution of 1086(c) of the Economic and Social Council and adopted in 1965.1 think it is necessary to prepare a new resolution of this type which will reflect the theoretical and practical progress of the last nine years. In this framework a prominent place for the promotion of regional sociology should be allocated. 2. In 1969 the ILO (1972) started a World Employment Programme. The studies on employment income and equality are really excellent contributions. Perhaps this well-designed and coordinated policy-oriented research programme could provide some support for the development of regional sociology. 3. The Congress of the International Sociological Association in Varna created a new working-group on the sociology and regional development.

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The efficient activity of this working-group should be supported by interested national and international institutions. These three channels are already existing. I would like to propose two new channels for the promotion of regional sociology. The first channel is a new international research project in the field of regional sociology. We won't get substantial progress in this field without large-scale and long-term empirical studies. Studies of this type can not be organized on an ad hoc basis. The concentration of means and skills in this field is needed urgently. The second channel is the establishment of a first-class international professional journal on regional sociology. It is well known how important the existence of a good journal is for the development of a new field of research and training. We have many examples in the history of social sciences supporting this argument. I am convinced that the new journal Regional Sociology, if properly managed, will open a new dynamic chapter in the history of this discipline.

REFERENCES

Alonso, W. (1969) Beyond the inter-disciplinary approach to planning. Berkeley. University of California. Center for Planning and Development Research. Working Paper No. 90. Friedmann, J. (1973) Systems of cities and information flows: Two essays. Lund Studies in Geography, Ser. B. Human Geography, No. 38. Furtado, C. (1973) The post-1964 Brazilian 'model' of development. Studies in Comparative International Development, 8(2). Rutgers University. Summer. ILO (1972) Employment, incomes and equality: A strategy for increasing productive employment in Kenya. Report of an Inter-agency Team financed by the United Nations Development Programme and organized by the International Labour Office. Geneva. Myrdal, G. (1968) Asian drama: An inquiry into the poverty of nations. New York. UNRISD (1968) Sociology of regional development (material for discussion). United Nations Institute for Social Development. Geneva.

Contributors

Director General of Mens en Ruimte (M 4- R) Regional and Urban Research and Planning Institute in Brussels. Lecturer at the Catholic University of Louvain (K.U.L.) in Sociology of Regional and Urban Planning, Housing and Architecture. He is a Professor at the Town Planning Institute in Brussels and was Consultant to the Economic Commission for Europe of the United Nations and to the regional program of the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development at Geneva. In addition he served as General Rapporteur and Editor of The mastery of urban growth (International Colloquium, Mens en Ruimte, Brussels, 1969), Director of the International Seminar of Μ + R International * RegionalUrban Planning Experiences in North Western Europe' (yearly since 1971) and Project Director of the Kuantan urban development study in Malaysia. He is now Director of ERIPLAN (European Research Institute for Regional and Urban Planning). HERMAN BAEYENS,

has since 1 9 6 6 been Research Officer of the Research Group for Process and System Analysis in Human Geography, Department of Social and Economic Geography, under the direction of Professor Torsten Hägerstrand. In addition to his project 'Time allocation, innovation and agrarian change in developing countries', a comparative analysis of some fifty village studies from the third world, he has also been involved in research on Swedish urbanization and regional policy. He holds a Masters of Science in Human Geography and Social Anthropology and is currently working towards a Ph.D. TOMMY CARLSTEIN

H. CUMBERLAND is Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland where he teaches and directs research in the fields of regional and urban development, and environmental management. He earned his JOHN

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Contributors

Ph.D. at Harvard University. He is the author of a book on Regional development: Experiences and prospects in the United States of America (The Hague, Mouton, 1971) and numerous other publications and articles. He has served as advisor to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, as well as numerous federal, state, and local agencies on problems of regional development and environmental management. is a Professor at the Department of Urban Planning of Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. He holds a Ph.D. degree in sociology and economics. Until 1967 he was associated with the University of Cologne, Germany, and after that, until 1973 with the Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. He is the author of a book (in German) on A contribution of social research to urban and regional planning (1968) and (together with Leo H. Klaassen) co-author of a book on Migration policy in Europe (1973). He has also published several articles and research reports (in German, Dutch and English) covering subjects such as community power structures, migration, segregation, social costs and benefits of urban development, and techniques of urban and regional planning. PAUL DREWE

J. GRUCHMAN is Associate Professor of Economics and Head of the Regional Planning Unit of the Institute of Planning and Regional Economics, Academy of Economics, Poznan (Poland). From 1972 to 1974 he was associated with the United Nations Research and Training Programme in Regional Development, New York, from 1967-1969 as United Nations expert in regional development in Libya and participated in several missions to other developing countries. Apart from numerous papers and articles on regional planning and regional economics he published in book form (in Polish) Evolution of the spatial structure of industry in the Poznan region (1964) and Agglomeration factors of industrial location in socialist economy (1967). BOHDAN

has presently a research professorship in Social Geography at the University of Lund (Sweden). He also directs a programme under the Swedish Council for Social Science Research. His scientific work has since the 40s concentrated on human populations in relation to their environment with a strong emphasis on the microperspective of processes. Publications available in English include Migration and area (1957) and Diffusion of innovation as a spatial process

TORSTEN HÄGERSTRAND

Contributors

525

(1967, originally in Swedish 1953). As a consequence of this interest he began to work with geocoding of population and settlements around 1955, an activity which is later reflected in the volume on Information systemsfor regional development (1971), in cooperation with A. Kuklinski. Hägerstrand and a group of co-workers were responsible for the Swedish contribution to the United Nations World Population Conference called The biography of a people (1974). He was also chairman of the EFTA Working Party which in 1973 published National settlement strategies: A framework for regional development. Hägerstrand is a member of the Swedish Government's Research Advisory Board and is engaged in the coordination of research for regional policy and also cross-disciplinary future-oriented studies. He was President of the Regional Science Association in 1969 and in 1968-1976 Vice-president of the International Geographical Union. BENJAMIN HIGGINS is Professor

of Economics and Vice-dean for Research, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada. Since 1941 he has been Advisor, Consultant, Chairman, Committee Member, and Director of various programs and projects in Canada, Asia, Africa, and Latin America in connection with his fields of speciality: Urban, Regional and National Planning and Development. He has been concerned with regional planning in Canada, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mauritania, Tunisia, Morocco, Ceylon, and Haiti. Apart from having written numerous articles and reports he is the author of several books, including: Economic development: Problems, principles and policies and Indonesia's economic stabilisation and development. is a Professor of Economics. From 1 9 7 2 - 1 9 7 5 he was Minister for Labour, Wages and Social Affairs in Poland. From 19641972 he was the President of the Central Statistical Office of Poland. From 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 2 Professor Kawalec was the Vice-Chairman of the Conference of European Statisticians (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe). Professor Kawalec has written eight books and numerous articles and papers mainly in the field of regional economics, regional planning and regional statistics. He is currently involved in research on social planning. Professor Kawalec is the Deputy President of the Committee of Demography and is also a member of the Executive Board of the Committee for Space Economy and Regional Planning both at the Polish Academy of Sciences. WICENTY KAWALEC

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Contributors

R. KUKLINSKI is Professor at the Warsaw University and Deputy Chairman of the Committee for Space Economy and Regional Planning at the Polish Academy of Sciences. From 1967 to 1971 he was Programme Director of Regional Development for UNRISD in Geneva, and he is Editor of the UNRISD-Mouton series of books on Regional Planning. His other publications include Criteria for location of industrial plans: Changes and problems (New York, 1967) and Contributions to regional planning and development (University of Mysore, 1971). Dr. Kuklinski has also written numerous papers on environmental policies, on regional development and planning, and on the integration of regional, urban, and environmental policies. ANTONI

is Professor at the Erasmus University at Rotterdam and President of the Netherlands Economic Institute. He holds a Ph.D in Economics. He is the author of a number of books mainly concerned with spatial economics. LEO H . KLAASSEN

Louis LEFEBER obtained his Ph.D. in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1957. He held teaching positions at Harvard, M.I.T. and Stanford. Currently, he is F.C. Hecht Professor of International Economics at Brandeis University (on leave) and Professor of Economics at York University. His publications include monographs on planning and development as well as articles in professional journals and contributions to volumes of essays. He has frequently been consultant to various developing countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa. He also was Ford Research Fellow as well as visiting scholar at the Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi University, and other academic institutions. L. LEVEN is Professor of Economics and Director, Institute for Urban and Regional Studies at Washington University in St. Louis (U.S.A.). Formerly he was on the faculty of economics, regional science and held research positions at the University of Pittsburgh, University of Pennsylvania, Iowa State University and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics awarded by Northwestern University. He has co-authored or edited several books in regional analysis, regional development and the urban housing process. He has authored many articles on the above and related topics. He is a past president of the Regional Science Association. CHARLES

Contributors

527

Η. J. A. MORSINK is at present a staff member of the Division of Social Affairs of the United Nations Office at Geneva. He was for two years an Associate Professor of Rural Sociology at the American University of Beirut (1964-1966). He served the United Nations on technical cooperation missions dealing with Area Planning in Greece, Tunisia and the Middle East (1959-1964), in Burundi and Uganda (1968) and in Tanzania (1971). He was also member of the United Nations Exploratory Missions on Regional Development to Czechoslovakia, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yugoslavia. G. PAPANDREOU is member of the Greek Parliament and leader of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement. In 1943 he received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. His fields of speciality are: Economic Theory and Method, Industrial Organization, Theory and Methods of Policy and Planning, Comparative Economic Systems, and Economic Development. He held the position of Chairman, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley; of Technical Adviser to the United Nations Financial and Monetary Conference; Economic Adviser to the Bank of Greece; Member of Laboratory for Research in Social Relations (University of Minnesota); Member of Social Science Research Council, Committee on Research on Business Enterprise; Consultant to Anti-Trust Division, Department of Justice (USA); Director, Center of Economic Research (Athens); Director, Research, York-Kenya Project (York University); Professor of Economics, York University, Canada; Minister to the Prime Minister; Minister of Coordination (Greek Government). He has written numerous articles, monographs, and contributions to books and is the author of several books which were translated into various languages, including: An introduction to social science: Personality, work, community (with A. Naftalin, B. Nelson, M. Sibley, D. Calhoun) (Philadelphia: Lippincott, 1953, rev. eds. 1957, 1961); Economics as a science (Philadelpha: Lippincott, 1958); Introduction to macroeconomic models (Athens: Center of Economic Research, 1965); Mot en totalitär värld?jToward a totalitarian world? (Stockholm: Norstedts, 1969); Paternalistic capitalism (The University of Minnesota Press, 1972); Project section for national plans (with U. Zohar) (New York: Praeger, 1974). ANDREAS

S. PERLOFF is Dean and Professor at the School of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of California, Los Angeles. In 1940 he HARVEY

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Contributors

received his Ph.D. in Political Economy from Harvard University. Since then he has been Director, Consultant, and Committee Member of various institutions and programs connected with research into urban, regional, and environmental planning and development in the United States as well as in Israel, Turkey, Venezuela, and Puerto Rico. Apart from having written numerous articles and reports he is the author and editor of several books, including: Puerto Rico's economic future (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1950); Education for planning: City, state, and regional (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1957); Regions, resources and economic growth (with Edgar Dunn, Eric Lampard and Richard Muth) (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1960); Issues in urban economics, editor (with Lowdon Wingo, Jr.) (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968); New Towns: Why - and for whom?, editor (with Neil C. Sandberg) (New York: Praeger Publishers, 1973). Associate Professor, is a Deputy Director of the Centre of African Studies, University of Warsaw. He is the project director for regional studies on African development and lecturer for a graduate course in Physical Planning at Warsaw Technical University. From 1966 to 1969 he was a United Nations expert in physical planning in Tanzania, where he conducted several studies on the use of town and regional planning. Apart from numerous papers and articles on social aspects of urban and regional development he is the author of two books: Human ecology and town planning (1962) and Spatial behaviour of'leading' families in some biggest Polish cities (1967). ZYGMUNT PIÖRO,

A. PONSIOEN, Professor of Sociology at the Institute of Social Studies, received his Ph.D. from the Catholic University in Tilburg, the Netherlands. Since 1954 he has been involved in developmental studies, conducting work in North, Central and East Africa, in Chile, Brazil and Puerto Rico. The focus of his shifting interests are reflected in the successive English publications: Social welfare policy I (1961) and II (1963); The analysis of social change reconsidered (1961, 1965, third revised edition 1969); National development: A sociological contribution (1968); Assessment of the field activities of the freedom from hunger campaign (1969); (Ed.) Educational innovations in Africa: Policies and administration (1972). He is currently chairman of two advisory committees to the Dutch Government. J.

Contributors

529

R. PRED is Professor of Geography and a member of the Institute for Urban and Regional Development at the University of California, Berkeley. He has published widely on matters relating to the development of systems of cities. His more recent works include The growth and development of systems of cities in advanced economies (Lund Studies in Geography, Ser. B, No. 38, 1973), and Urban growth and the circulation of information: The United States system of cities, 1790-1840 (Harvard University Press, 1973). ALLAN

is Director of a research programme on regional development at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, England. Previously, he was a research student at the London School of Economics and a lecturer in geography at the University of Reading. His published work includes papers on industrial location, monographs on the Geography of business cycles and Regional disparities and books on Industrial movement and regional development, Regional policy and planning for Europe and the Industrial geography of East Anglia. He is currently assisting in a project on the occupation structure of regional development sponsored by the EEC and the British government. MORGAN SANT

First Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission of the Council of Ministers, Professor of Economics and Head of the Department of Economic and Regional Policy in the Central School of Planning and Statistics in Warsaw, is a member of the Polish Academy of Sciences, serving on three of its committees and as a member of the Board. He is a founding member of the Polish Economics Society who served for many years as its Deputy Chairman and since 1968 has been President of its Central Board. In the field of investment policy, his works include Foundations of investment policy (in three volumes, 1947), Investment planning (1955) and Studies in the theory of the efficiency of investment (1957). In the area of rational distribution of productive forces, he authored The introduction to the theory of the distribution of productive forces (1957) and edited the two volumes Theoretical problems of the distribution of productive forces (1965) and Spatial planning and policy: Theoretical foundation (in Polish, 1972; in English, 1974). His volume The foundation ofperspective planning (1966) received a State Prize of the second degree, and Elements of economic policy (1971) was awarded a State Prize of the first degree. Prognostics (1971) attempts to outline the foundations of a new discipline seen as an important part of modern socio-economic programming and planning. KAZIMIERZ SECOMSKI,

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Contributors

D. UTRIA is a United Nations Regional Advisor in Regional Development Planning and Policies, attached to the Economic Commission for Latin America in Santiago, Chile. He was chief of social development planning at the National Planning Board of Colombia, his country of origin, and lecturer at the university. During the last twelve years he has accomplished studies and advisory missions to the governments of practically all the Latin American countries, on social aspects of development and regional and local development planning and policies. He is the author of several books and has given lectures in several universities and international institutes, like the U.N. Latin American Planning Institute and the Inter-American Housing and Planning Centre. RUB6N

received his Ph.D. from the Netherlands School of Economics in 1964. Since 1969 he has been with the Economic Faculty of the Erasmus University, Rotterdam. In the Department of Regional Economics he teaches statistical methods of econometrics (graduate level). With others he has written an article on the psychological distance between the Flemings and the Walloons, published in The Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, 1971. SJOERD WAGENAAR

A. ZIOLKOWSKI is Professor of Sociology at the Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland. From 1965 to 1966 he was Director of the UNESCO Research Centre on Social and Economic Development in Southern Asia, Delhi, India. He served as a consultant to the United Nations on the social aspects of regional development and on the sociocultural aspects of environmental issues. He was President of the Research Committee on Sociology of Regional and Urban Development, International Sociological Association. He has published several books (in Polish) on urban and industrial sociology as well as on sociology of planning and demographic behaviour. He also published several articles on similar subjects in English and French.

JANUSZ

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements are due to the following for permission to use previously copyrighted material. Edward Arnold Ltd., London A. R. Pred, Urbanisation, domestic planning problems and Swedish geographic research. In Progress in geography, Vol. 5 (1972), pp. 1-79. Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, D.C. H. S. Perloff, A framework for dealing with the urban environment: Introductory statement. In H. S. Perloff (Ed.), The quality of the urban environment: Essays on 'new resources' in an urban age, 1969, pp. 1-25. PLAN - Periodical for Planning of Rural and Urban Areas, Malmö. Τ. Hägerstrand, The impact of social organization and environment upon the time-use of individuals and households, PLAN International 1972 (special issue), pp. 24-30. United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. R. D. Utria, Some special aspects of regional development in Latin America, International Social Development Review, 4(1972), pp. 4256. Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam. L. H. Klaassen, Urban planning and its impact on the quality of urban life in West European cities. Netherlands Economic Institute Series, Foundations of Empirical Economic Research, 1972/74. L. H. Klaassen & S. Wagenaar, Towards an operational definition of psychological distance. Netherlands Economic Institute Series, Foundations of Emperical Economic Research, 1972/73.

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A cknowledgements

The following papers were first presented at the roundtable meetings on Social Issues in Regional Policy and Regional Planning and on Regional, Urban and Environmental Policies: B. J. Gruchman, Regional policy and planning in social perspective B. Higgins, Social aspects of regional planning A. Kuklinski, Prospects of regional sociology , Social issues in regional policy and regional planning L. Lefeber, Normative problems and social issues in regional analysis